Designing and evaluating risk-based surveillance systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Willeberg, Preben; Nielsen, Liza Rosenbaum; Salman, Mo

2012-01-01

Risk-based surveillance systems reveal occurrence of disease or infection in a sample of population units, which are selected on the basis of risk factors for the condition under study. The purpose of such systems for supporting practical animal disease policy formulations and management decisions...... with prudent use of resources while maintaining acceptable system performance. High-risk category units are selected for testing by identification of the presence of specific high-risk factor(s), while disregarding other factors that might also influence the risk. On this basis we argue that the most...... applicable risk estimate for use in designing and evaluating a risk-based surveillance system would be a crude (unadjusted) relative risk, odds ratio or apparent prevalence. Risk estimates found in the published literature, however, are often the results of multivariable analyses implicitly adjusting...

Data Analyses and Modelling for Risk Based Monitoring of Mycotoxins in Animal Feed

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H.J. (Ine van der Fels-Klerx

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Following legislation, European Member States should have multi-annual control programs for contaminants, such as for mycotoxins, in feed and food. These programs need to be risk based implying the checks are regular and proportional to the estimated risk for animal and human health. This study aimed to prioritize feed products in the Netherlands for deoxynivalenol and aflatoxin B1 monitoring. Historical mycotoxin monitoring results from the period 2007–2016 were combined with data from other sources. Based on occurrence, groundnuts had high priority for aflatoxin B1 monitoring; some feed materials (maize and maize products and several oil seed products and complete/complementary feed excluding dairy cattle and young animals had medium priority; and all other animal feeds and feed materials had low priority. For deoxynivalenol, maize by-products had a high priority, complete and complementary feed for pigs had a medium priority and all other feed and feed materials a low priority. Also including health consequence estimations showed that feed materials that ranked highest for aflatoxin B1 included sunflower seed and palmkernel expeller/extracts and maize. For deoxynivalenol, maize products were ranked highest, followed by various small grain cereals (products; all other feed materials were of lower concern. Results of this study have proven to be useful in setting up the annual risk based control program for mycotoxins in animal feed and feed materials.

Data Analyses and Modelling for Risk Based Monitoring of Mycotoxins in Animal Feed

Science.gov (United States)

van der Fels-Klerx, H.J. (Ine); Adamse, Paulien; Punt, Ans; van Asselt, Esther D.

2018-01-01

Following legislation, European Member States should have multi-annual control programs for contaminants, such as for mycotoxins, in feed and food. These programs need to be risk based implying the checks are regular and proportional to the estimated risk for animal and human health. This study aimed to prioritize feed products in the Netherlands for deoxynivalenol and aflatoxin B1 monitoring. Historical mycotoxin monitoring results from the period 2007–2016 were combined with data from other sources. Based on occurrence, groundnuts had high priority for aflatoxin B1 monitoring; some feed materials (maize and maize products and several oil seed products) and complete/complementary feed excluding dairy cattle and young animals had medium priority; and all other animal feeds and feed materials had low priority. For deoxynivalenol, maize by-products had a high priority, complete and complementary feed for pigs had a medium priority and all other feed and feed materials a low priority. Also including health consequence estimations showed that feed materials that ranked highest for aflatoxin B1 included sunflower seed and palmkernel expeller/extracts and maize. For deoxynivalenol, maize products were ranked highest, followed by various small grain cereals (products); all other feed materials were of lower concern. Results of this study have proven to be useful in setting up the annual risk based control program for mycotoxins in animal feed and feed materials. PMID:29373559

Analysing the external supply chain risk driver competitiveness: a risk mitigation framework and business continuity plan.

Science.gov (United States)

Blos, Mauricio F; Wee, Hui-Ming; Yang, Joshua

2010-11-01

Innovation challenges for handling supply chain risks have become one of the most important drivers in business competitiveness and differentiation. This study analyses competitiveness at the external supply chain level as a driver of risks and provides a framework for mitigating these risks. The mitigation framework, also called the supply chain continuity framework, provides insight into six stages of the business continuity planning (BCP) process life cycle (risk mitigation management, business impact analysis, supply continuity strategy development, supply continuity plan development, supply continuity plan testing and supply continuity plan maintenance), together with the operational constructs: customer service, inventory management, flexibility, time to market, ordering cycle time and quality. The purpose of the BCP process life cycle and operational constructs working together is to emphasise the way in which a supply chain can deal with disruption risks and, consequently, bring competitive advantage. Future research will consider the new risk scenarios and analyse the consequences to promote the improvement of supply chain resilience.

The necessity for comparative risk analyses as seen from the political point of view

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Steger, U.

1981-01-01

The author describes the current insufficient utilization of risk analyses in the political decision process and investigates if other technologies encounter the same difficulties of acceptance as in the nuclear energy field. This being likely he is trying to find out which contribution comparative risk analyses could make to the process of democratic will-formation so that new technologies are accepted. Firstly the author establishes theses criticizing the recent scientific efforts made in the field of risk analyses and their usability for the political decision process. He then defines the criteria risk analyses have to meet in order to serve as scientific elements for consultative political discussions. (orig./HP) [de

Not all risks are created equal: A twin study and meta-analyses of risk taking across seven domains.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, X T Xiao-Tian; Zheng, Rui; Xuan, Yan-Hua; Chen, Jie; Li, Shu

2016-11-01

Humans routinely deal with both traditional and novel risks. Different kinds of risks have been a driving force for both evolutionary adaptations and personal development. This study explored the genetic and environmental influences on human risk taking in different task domains. Our approach was threefold. First, we integrated several scales of domain-specific risk-taking propensity and developed a synthetic scale, including both evolutionarily typical and modern risks in the following 7 domains: cooperation/competition, safety, reproduction, natural/physical risk, moral risk, financial risk, and gambling. Second, we conducted a twin study using the scale to estimate the contributions of genes and environment to risk taking in each of these 7 domains. Third, we conducted a series of meta-analyses of extant twin studies across the 7 risk domains. The results showed that individual differences in risk-taking propensity and its consistency across domains were mainly regulated by additive genetic influences and individually unique environmental experiences. The heritability estimates from the meta-analyses ranged from 29% in financial risk taking to 55% in safety. Supporting the notion of risk-domain specificity, both the behavioral and genetic correlations among the 7 domains were generally low. Among the relatively few correlations between pairs of risk domains, our analysis revealed a common genetic factor that regulates moral, financial, and natural/physical risk taking. This is the first effort to separate genetic and environmental influences on risk taking across multiple domains in a single study and integrate the findings of extant twin studies via a series of meta-analyses conducted in different task domains. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Risk analysis for decision support in electricity distribution system asset management: methods and frameworks for analysing intangible risks

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nordgaard, Dag Eirik

2010-04-15

During the last 10 to 15 years electricity distribution companies throughout the world have been ever more focused on asset management as the guiding principle for their activities. Within asset management, risk is a key issue for distribution companies, together with handling of cost and performance. There is now an increased awareness of the need to include risk analyses into the companies' decision making processes. Much of the work on risk in electricity distribution systems has focused on aspects of reliability. This is understandable, since it is surely an important feature of the product delivered by the electricity distribution infrastructure, and it is high on the agenda for regulatory authorities in many countries. However, electricity distribution companies are also concerned with other risks relevant for their decision making. This typically involves intangible risks, such as safety, environmental impacts and company reputation. In contrast to the numerous methodologies developed for reliability risk analysis, there are relatively few applications of structured analyses to support decisions concerning intangible risks, even though they represent an important motivation for decisions taken in electricity distribution companies. The overall objective of this PhD work has been to explore risk analysis methods that can be used to improve and support decision making in electricity distribution system asset management, with an emphasis on the analysis of intangible risks. The main contributions of this thesis can be summarised as: An exploration and testing of quantitative risk analysis (QRA) methods to support decisions concerning intangible risks; The development of a procedure for using life curve models to provide input to QRA models; The development of a framework for risk-informed decision making where QRA are used to analyse selected problems; In addition, the results contribute to clarify the basic concepts of risk, and highlight challenges

Systems reliability analyses and risk analyses for the licencing procedure under atomic law

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Berning, A.; Spindler, H.

1983-01-01

For the licencing procedure under atomic law in accordance with Article 7 AtG, the nuclear power plant as a whole needs to be assessed, plus the reliability of systems and plant components that are essential to safety are to be determined with probabilistic methods. This requirement is the consequence of safety criteria for nuclear power plants issued by the Home Department (BMI). Systems reliability studies and risk analyses used in licencing procedures under atomic law are identified. The stress is on licencing decisions, mainly for PWR-type reactors. Reactor Safety Commission (RSK) guidelines, examples of reasoning in legal proceedings and arguments put forth by objectors are also dealt with. Correlations are shown between reliability analyses made by experts and licencing decisions by means of examples. (orig./HP) [de

Environmental risk factors for autism: an evidence-based review of systematic reviews and meta-analyses.

Science.gov (United States)

Modabbernia, Amirhossein; Velthorst, Eva; Reichenberg, Abraham

2017-01-01

According to recent evidence, up to 40-50% of variance in autism spectrum disorder (ASD) liability might be determined by environmental factors. In the present paper, we conducted a review of systematic reviews and meta-analyses of environmental risk factors for ASD. We assessed each review for quality of evidence and provided a brief overview of putative mechanisms of environmental risk factors for ASD. Current evidence suggests that several environmental factors including vaccination, maternal smoking, thimerosal exposure, and most likely assisted reproductive technologies are unrelated to risk of ASD. On the contrary, advanced parental age is associated with higher risk of ASD. Birth complications that are associated with trauma or ischemia and hypoxia have also shown strong links to ASD, whereas other pregnancy-related factors such as maternal obesity, maternal diabetes, and caesarian section have shown a less strong (but significant) association with risk of ASD. The reviews on nutritional elements have been inconclusive about the detrimental effects of deficiency in folic acid and omega 3, but vitamin D seems to be deficient in patients with ASD. The studies on toxic elements have been largely limited by their design, but there is enough evidence for the association between some heavy metals (most important inorganic mercury and lead) and ASD that warrants further investigation. Mechanisms of the association between environmental factors and ASD are debated but might include non-causative association (including confounding), gene-related effect, oxidative stress, inflammation, hypoxia/ischemia, endocrine disruption, neurotransmitter alterations, and interference with signaling pathways. Compared to genetic studies of ASD, studies of environmental risk factors are in their infancy and have significant methodological limitations. Future studies of ASD risk factors would benefit from a developmental psychopathology approach, prospective design, precise exposure

Process of Integrating Screening and Detailed Risk-based Modeling Analyses to Ensure Consistent and Scientifically Defensible Results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Buck, John W.; McDonald, John P.; Taira, Randal Y.

2002-01-01

To support cleanup and closure of these tanks, modeling is performed to understand and predict potential impacts to human health and the environment. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory developed a screening tool for the United States Department of Energy, Office of River Protection that estimates the long-term human health risk, from a strategic planning perspective, posed by potential tank releases to the environment. This tool is being conditioned to more detailed model analyses to ensure consistency between studies and to provide scientific defensibility. Once the conditioning is complete, the system will be used to screen alternative cleanup and closure strategies. The integration of screening and detailed models provides consistent analyses, efficiencies in resources, and positive feedback between the various modeling groups. This approach of conditioning a screening methodology to more detailed analyses provides decision-makers with timely and defensible information and increases confidence in the results on the part of clients, regulators, and stakeholders

Evaluation of severe accident risks: Methodology for the containment, source term, consequence, and risk integration analyses. Volume 1, Revision 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gorham, E.D.; Breeding, R.J.; Brown, T.D.; Harper, F.T.; Helton, J.C.; Murfin, W.B.; Hora, S.C.

1993-12-01

NUREG-1150 examines the risk to the public from five nuclear power plants. The NUREG-1150 plant studies are Level III probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) and, as such, they consist of four analysis components: accident frequency analysis, accident progression analysis, source term analysis, and consequence analysis. This volume summarizes the methods utilized in performing the last three components and the assembly of these analyses into an overall risk assessment. The NUREG-1150 analysis approach is based on the following ideas: (1) general and relatively fast-running models for the individual analysis components, (2) well-defined interfaces between the individual analysis components, (3) use of Monte Carlo techniques together with an efficient sampling procedure to propagate uncertainties, (4) use of expert panels to develop distributions for important phenomenological issues, and (5) automation of the overall analysis. Many features of the new analysis procedures were adopted to facilitate a comprehensive treatment of uncertainty in the complete risk analysis. Uncertainties in the accident frequency, accident progression and source term analyses were included in the overall uncertainty assessment. The uncertainties in the consequence analysis were not included in this assessment. A large effort was devoted to the development of procedures for obtaining expert opinion and the execution of these procedures to quantify parameters and phenomena for which there is large uncertainty and divergent opinions in the reactor safety community

Cost/benefit and risk/benefit analyses in LMFBR program planning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brewer, S.T.; Benson, R.A.; Palmer, R.S.

1978-01-01

The subject is discussed under the following headings: incentives analyses, uranium availability, electrical demand, the present value of future savings, alternatives to the breeder, environmental considerations, development program risks, results and conclusions. (U.K.)

Risk based limits for Operational Safety Requirements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cappucci, A.J. Jr.

1993-01-01

OSR limits are designed to protect the assumptions made in the facility safety analysis in order to preserve the safety envelope during facility operation. Normally, limits are set based on ''worst case conditions'' without regard to the likelihood (frequency) of a credible event occurring. In special cases where the accident analyses are based on ''time at risk'' arguments, it may be desirable to control the time at which the facility is at risk. A methodology has been developed to use OSR limits to control the source terms and the times these source terms would be available, thus controlling the acceptable risk to a nuclear process facility. The methodology defines a new term ''gram-days''. This term represents the area under a source term (inventory) vs time curve which represents the risk to the facility. Using the concept of gram-days (normalized to one year) allows the use of an accounting scheme to control the risk under the inventory vs time curve. The methodology results in at least three OSR limits: (1) control of the maximum inventory or source term, (2) control of the maximum gram-days for the period based on a source term weighted average, and (3) control of the maximum gram-days at the individual source term levels. Basing OSR limits on risk based safety analysis is feasible, and a basis for development of risk based limits is defensible. However, monitoring inventories and the frequencies required to maintain facility operation within the safety envelope may be complex and time consuming

Association between Adult Height and Risk of Colorectal, Lung, and Prostate Cancer: Results from Meta-analyses of Prospective Studies and Mendelian Randomization Analyses

Science.gov (United States)

Khankari, Nikhil K.; Shu, Xiao-Ou; Wen, Wanqing; Kraft, Peter; Lindström, Sara; Peters, Ulrike; Schildkraut, Joellen; Schumacher, Fredrick; Bofetta, Paolo; Risch, Angela; Bickeböller, Heike; Amos, Christopher I.; Easton, Douglas; Gruber, Stephen B.; Haiman, Christopher A.; Hunter, David J.; Chanock, Stephen J.; Pierce, Brandon L.; Zheng, Wei

2016-01-01

Background Observational studies examining associations between adult height and risk of colorectal, prostate, and lung cancers have generated mixed results. We conducted meta-analyses using data from prospective cohort studies and further carried out Mendelian randomization analyses, using height-associated genetic variants identified in a genome-wide association study (GWAS), to evaluate the association of adult height with these cancers. Methods and Findings A systematic review of prospective studies was conducted using the PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science databases. Using meta-analyses, results obtained from 62 studies were summarized for the association of a 10-cm increase in height with cancer risk. Mendelian randomization analyses were conducted using summary statistics obtained for 423 genetic variants identified from a recent GWAS of adult height and from a cancer genetics consortium study of multiple cancers that included 47,800 cases and 81,353 controls. For a 10-cm increase in height, the summary relative risks derived from the meta-analyses of prospective studies were 1.12 (95% CI 1.10, 1.15), 1.07 (95% CI 1.05, 1.10), and 1.06 (95% CI 1.02, 1.11) for colorectal, prostate, and lung cancers, respectively. Mendelian randomization analyses showed increased risks of colorectal (odds ratio [OR] = 1.58, 95% CI 1.14, 2.18) and lung cancer (OR = 1.10, 95% CI 1.00, 1.22) associated with each 10-cm increase in genetically predicted height. No association was observed for prostate cancer (OR = 1.03, 95% CI 0.92, 1.15). Our meta-analysis was limited to published studies. The sample size for the Mendelian randomization analysis of colorectal cancer was relatively small, thus affecting the precision of the point estimate. Conclusions Our study provides evidence for a potential causal association of adult height with the risk of colorectal and lung cancers and suggests that certain genetic factors and biological pathways affecting adult height may also affect the

Risk-based microbiological criteria for Campylobacter in broiler meat: A comparison of two approaches

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nauta, Maarten; Andersen, Jens Kirk; Tuominen, Pirkko

2015-01-01

Risk-based microbiological criteria can offer a tool to control Campylobacter in the broiler meat production chain. Recently two approaches have been applied to derive such criteria and to analyse their potential impact in terms of human health risk reduction: the risk-based version...

Handbook of methods for risk-based analysis of technical specifications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Samanta, P.K.; Kim, I.S.; Mankamo, T.; Vesely, W.E.

1996-01-01

Technical Specifications (TS) requirements for nuclear power plants define the Limiting Conditions for Operations (LCOs) and Surveillance Requirements (SRs) to assure safety during operation. In general, these requirements are based on deterministic analyses and engineering judgments. Improvements in these requirements are facilitated by the availability of plant-specific Probabilistic Risk Assessments (PRAs). The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) Office of Research sponsored research to develop systematic, risk-based methods to improve various aspects of TS requirements. A handbook of methods summarizing such risk-based approaches has been completed in 1994. It is expected that this handbook will provide valuable input to NRC's present work in developing guidance for using PRA in risk-informed regulation. The handbook addresses reliability and risk-based methods for evaluating allowed outage times (AOTs), action statements requiring shutdown where shutdown risk may be substantial, surveillance test intervals (STIs), managing plant configurations, and scheduling maintenance

[Health risks in different living circumstances of mothers. Analyses based on a population study].

Science.gov (United States)

Sperlich, Stefanie

2014-12-01

The objective of this study was to determine the living circumstances ('Lebenslagen') in mothers which are associated with elevated health risks. Data were derived from a cross-sectional population based sample of German women (n = 3129) with underage children. By means of a two-step cluster analysis ten different maternal living circumstances were assessed which proved to be distinct with respect to indicators of socioeconomic position, employment status and family-related factors. Out of the ten living circumstances, one could be attributed to higher socioeconomic status (SES), while five were assigned to a middle SES and four to a lower SES. In line with previous findings, mothers with a high SES predominantly showed the best health while mothers with a low SES tended to be at higher health risk with respect to subjective health, mental health (anxiety and depression), obesity and smoking. However, there were important health differences between the different living circumstances within the middle and lower SES. In addition, varying health risks were found among different living circumstances of single mothers, pointing to the significance of family and job-related living conditions in establishing health risks. With this exploratory analysis strategy small-scale living conditions could be detected which were associated with specific health risks. This approach seemed particularly suitable to provide a more precise definition of target groups for health promotion. The findings encourage a more exrensive application of the concept of living conditions in medical sociology research as well as health monitoring.

Quality and completeness of risk analyses. Vol. 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Taylor, J.R.

1992-06-01

The program described was started in 1974, at Risoe National Laboratory. The motivation was criticism then being directed at the Reactor Safety Study WASH 1400, and the view that if risk analysis were to have a future as a scientific study, then its procedures would need to be verified. The material described is a record of a prolonged set of experiments and experiences and this second edition of the report includes an update of the research to cover a study of 35 risk analyses reviewed and checked between 1988 and 1992. A survey is presented of the ways in which incompleteness, lacunae, and oversights arise in risk analysis. Areas were detailed knowledge of disturbance causes and consequences need to be known are alarm priority setting, suppression of nuisance alarms and status annunciation signals, advanced shut down system design and runback systems, alarm and disturbance analysis, automatic plant supervision, disturbance diagnosis and testing support, and monitoring of safe operation margins. Despite improvements in risk analysis technique, in safety management, and in safety design, there will always be problems of ignorance, of material properties, of chemical reactions, of behavioural patterns and safety decision making, which leave plants vulnerable and hazardous. (AB) (24 refs.)

A case against bio markers as they are currently used in radioecological risk analyses: a problem of linkage

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hinton, T.G.; Brechignac, F.

2005-01-01

Bio-markers are successfully used in human risk analyses as early indicators of contaminant exposure and predictors of deleterious effects. This has boosted the search for bio-markers in determining ecological risks to non-human biota, and particularly for assessments related to radioactive contaminants. There are difficulties, however, that prevent an easy transfer of the bio-marker concept from humans to non-human biota, as there are significant differences in endpoints of concern, units of observation and dose response relationships between human and ecological risk analyses. The use of bio-markers in ecological risk analyses currently lacks a linkage between molecular-level effects and quantifiable impacts observed in individuals and populations. This is important because ecological risk analyses generally target the population level of biological organisation. We highlight various examples that demonstrate the difficulties of linking individual responses to population-level impacts, such as indirect effects and compensatory interactions. Eco-toxicologists cope with such difficulties through the use of uncertainty or extrapolation factors. Extrapolation factors (EF) typically range from 1 to 1000 when linking effects observed in individuals to those predicted to occur in populations. We question what magnitude of EF will be required when going from a molecular level effect, measured by a bio-marker, all the way up to the population level of biological organisation. Particularly, we stress that a successful application of bio-markers to radioecological risk assessment can only be achieved once the connection has been made between changes in individual resource allocation-based life histories and population dynamics. This clearly emphasises the need to quantify the propagation of molecular and cellular level effects to higher levels of biological organisation, especially in the long-term via several generations of exposure. Finally, we identify pertinent research

Risk analyses in nuclear engineerig, their value in terms of information, and their limits in terms of applicability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Heuser, F.W.

1983-01-01

This contribution first briefly explains the main pillars of the deterministic safety concept as developed in nuclear engineering, and some basic ideas on risk analyses in general. This is followed by an outline of the methodology and main purposes of risk analyses. The German Risk Study is taken as an example to discuss selected aspects with regard to information value and limits of risk analyses. The main conclusions state that risk analyses are a valuable instrument for quantitative safety evaluation, leading to a better understanding of safety problems and their prevention, and allowing a comparative assessment of various safety measures. They furthermore allow a refined evaluation of a variety of accident parameters and other impacts determining the risk emanating from accidents. The current state of the art in this sector still leaves numerous uncertainties so that risk analyses yield information for assessments rather than for definite predictions. However, the urge for quantifying the lack of knowledge leads to a better and more precise determination of the gaps still to be filled up by researchers and engineers. Thus risk analyses are a useful help in defining suitable approaches and setting up standards, showing the tasks to be fulfilled in safety research in general. (orig./HSCH) [de

75 FR 6344 - Notice of Availability of Pest Risk Analyses for Importation of Fresh Figs, Pomegranates, and...

Science.gov (United States)

2010-02-09

...] Notice of Availability of Pest Risk Analyses for Importation of Fresh Figs, Pomegranates, and Baby Kiwi...: Notice. SUMMARY: We are advising the public that we have prepared two pest risk analyses, one with... the risks of introducing or disseminating plant pests or noxious weeds via the importation of figs...

Association between Adult Height and Risk of Colorectal, Lung, and Prostate Cancer : Results from Meta-analyses of Prospective Studies and Mendelian Randomization Analyses

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Khankari, Nikhil K.; Shu, Xiao Ou; Wen, Wanqing; Kraft, Peter; Lindström, Sara; Peters, Ulrike; Schildkraut, Joellen; Schumacher, Fredrick; Bofetta, Paolo; Risch, Angela; Bickeböller, Heike; Amos, Christopher I.; Easton, Douglas; Eeles, Rosalind A.; Gruber, Stephen B.; Haiman, Christopher A.; Hunter, David J.; Chanock, Stephen J.; Pierce, Brandon L.; Zheng, Wei; Blalock, Kendra; Campbell, Peter T.; Casey, Graham; Conti, David V.; Edlund, Christopher K.; Figueiredo, Jane; James Gauderman, W.; Gong, Jian; Green, Roger C.; Harju, John F.; Harrison, Tabitha A.; Jacobs, Eric J.; Jenkins, Mark A.; Jiao, Shuo; Li, Li; Lin, Yi; Manion, Frank J.; Moreno, Victor; Mukherjee, Bhramar; Raskin, Leon; Schumacher, Fredrick R.; Seminara, Daniela; Severi, Gianluca; Stenzel, Stephanie L.; Thomas, Duncan C.; Hopper, John L.; Southey, Melissa C.; Makalic, Enes; Schmidt, Daniel F.; Fletcher, Olivia; Peto, Julian; Gibson, Lorna; dos Santos Silva, Isabel; Ahsan, Habib; Whittemore, Alice; Waisfisz, Quinten; Meijers-Heijboer, Hanne; Adank, Muriel; van der Luijt, Rob B.; Uitterlinden, Andre G.; Hofman, Albert; Meindl, Alfons; Schmutzler, Rita K.; Müller-Myhsok, Bertram; Lichtner, Peter; Nevanlinna, Heli; Muranen, Taru A.; Aittomäki, Kristiina; Blomqvist, Carl; Chang-Claude, Jenny; Hein, Rebecca; Dahmen, Norbert; Beckman, Lars; Crisponi, Laura; Hall, Per; Czene, Kamila; Irwanto, Astrid; Liu, Jianjun; Easton, Douglas F.; Turnbull, Clare; Rahman, Nazneen; Eeles, Rosalind; Kote-Jarai, Zsofia; Muir, Kenneth; Giles, Graham; Neal, David; Donovan, Jenny L.; Hamdy, Freddie C.; Wiklund, Fredrik; Gronberg, Henrik; Haiman, Christopher; Schumacher, Fred; Travis, Ruth; Riboli, Elio; Hunter, David; Gapstur, Susan; Berndt, Sonja; Chanock, Stephen; Han, Younghun; Su, Li; Wei, Yongyue; Hung, Rayjean J.; Brhane, Yonathan; McLaughlin, John; Brennan, Paul; McKay, James D.; Rosenberger, Albert; Houlston, Richard S.; Caporaso, Neil; Teresa Landi, Maria; Heinrich, Joachim; Wu, Xifeng; Ye, Yuanqing; Christiani, David C.

2016-01-01

Background: Observational studies examining associations between adult height and risk of colorectal, prostate, and lung cancers have generated mixed results. We conducted meta-analyses using data from prospective cohort studies and further carried out Mendelian randomization analyses, using

Data base of accident and agricultural statistics for transportation risk assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Saricks, C.L.; Williams, R.G.; Hopf, M.R.

1989-11-01

A state-level data base of accident and agricultural statistics has been developed to support risk assessment for transportation of spent nuclear fuels and high-level radioactive wastes. This data base will enhance the modeling capabilities for more route-specific analyses of potential risks associated with transportation of these wastes to a disposal site. The data base and methodology used to develop state-specific accident and agricultural data bases are described, and summaries of accident and agricultural statistics are provided. 27 refs., 9 tabs.

Data base of accident and agricultural statistics for transportation risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Saricks, C.L.; Williams, R.G.; Hopf, M.R.

1989-11-01

A state-level data base of accident and agricultural statistics has been developed to support risk assessment for transportation of spent nuclear fuels and high-level radioactive wastes. This data base will enhance the modeling capabilities for more route-specific analyses of potential risks associated with transportation of these wastes to a disposal site. The data base and methodology used to develop state-specific accident and agricultural data bases are described, and summaries of accident and agricultural statistics are provided. 27 refs., 9 tabs

Strategies and criteria for risk-based configuration control

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Samanta, P.K.; Kim, I.S.; Vesely, W.E.

1991-01-01

A configuration, as used here, is a set of component operability or statuses that define the state of a nuclear power plant. Risk-based configuration control is the management of component configurations using a risk perspective to control risk and assure safety. If the component configurations that have high risk implications do not occur then the risk from the operation of nuclear power plants would be minimal. The control of component configurations, i.e., the management of component statuses, so that the risk from components being unavailable is minimized, becomes difficult because the status of a standby safety system component is often not apparent unless it is tested. In this paper, we discuss the strategies and criteria for risk-based configuration control in nuclear power plants. In developing these strategies and criteria, the primary objective is to obtain more direct risk control but the added benefit is the effective use of plant resources. Implementation of such approaches can result in replacement/modification of parts of Technical Specifications. Specifically, the risk impact or safety impact of a configuration depends upon four factors: (1) The configuration components which are simultaneously down (i.e., inoperable); (2) the backup components which are known to be up (i.e., operable); (3) the duration of time the configuration exists (the outage time); and (4) the frequency at which the configuration occurs. Risk-based configuration control involves managing these factors using risk analyses and risk insights. In this paper, we discuss each of the factors and illustrate how they can be controlled. The information and the tools needed in implementing configuration control are also discussed. The risk-based calculation requirements in achieving the control are also delineated. 4 refs., 4 figs., 1 tab

Children with Elevated Psychosocial Risk Load Benefit Most from a Family-Based Preventive Intervention: Exploratory Differential Analyses from the German "Strengthening Families Program 10-14" Adaptation Trial.

Science.gov (United States)

Bröning, Sonja; Baldus, Christiane; Thomsen, Monika; Sack, Peter-Michael; Arnaud, Nicolas; Thomasius, Rainer

2017-11-01

While the effectiveness of substance use prevention programs such as the Strengthening Families Program 10-14 (SFP) has been demonstrated in the USA, European SFP adaptations have not replicated these sizable effects. Following the rationale of the risk moderation hypothesis positing that elevated risk groups may benefit more from a preventive intervention than lower-risk groups, we reanalyzed evaluation data from a randomized controlled trial testing the adapted German version of SFP (SFP-D). We hypothesized a differential impact of risk status on intervention results. The study employed a minimal control condition. Of the N = 292 participating children, 73.5% qualified as at-risk because they lived in a deprived urban district, and 26.5% qualified as high risk because they additionally scored as "difficult" in the German Strengths and Difficulty Questionnaire (parents' reports using gender- and age-specific German norms). Outcomes were children's self-reports on substance use, mental health, family functioning, and quality of life. Data were analyzed with repeated measures linear mixed models and relative risk analyses. The high-risk group in the SFP-D condition achieved the best results compared with all other groups, especially in mental health and quality of life. Relative risk analyses on tobacco [alcohol] abstinence showed that an additional percentage of 29.8% [16.0%] of high-risk children in nonabstinent controls would have remained abstinent if they had participated in SFP-D. We conclude that risk load influences the impact of substance use prevention programs and discuss to what extent differential analyses can add value to prevention research.

76 FR 4278 - Notice of Availability of Pest Risk Analyses for the Importation of Fresh Edible Flowers of Izote...

Science.gov (United States)

2011-01-25

...] Notice of Availability of Pest Risk Analyses for the Importation of Fresh Edible Flowers of Izote... prepared pest risk analyses that evaluate the risks associated with the importation into the continental... risks of introducing or disseminating plant pests or noxious weeds via the importation of fresh edible...

A risk-based decision-aiding tool for waste disposal

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Weiner, R.F.; Reiser, A.S.; Elcock, C.G.; Nevins, S.

1997-01-01

N-CART (the National Spent Nuclear Fuel Program Cost Analysis and Risk Tool) is being developed to aid in low-risk, cost-effective, timely management of radioactive waste and spent nuclear fuel, and can therefore be used in management of mixed waste. N-CART provides evaluation of multiple alternatives and presents the consequences of proposed waste management activities in a clear and concise format. N-CART's decision-aiding analyses include comparisons and sensitivity analyses of multiple alternatives and allows the user to perform quick turn-around open-quotes what ifclose quotes studies to investigate various scenarios. Uncertainties in data (such as cost and schedule of various activities) are represented as distributions. N-CART centralizes documentation of the bases of program alternatives and program decisions, thereby supporting responses to stakeholders concerns. The initial N-CART design considers regulatory requirements, costs, and schedules for alternative courses of action. The final design will include risks (public health, occupational, economic, scheduling), economic benefits, and the impacts of secondary waste generation. An optimization tool is being incorporated that allows the user to specify the relative importance of cost, time risks, and other bases for decisions. The N-CART prototype can be used to compare the costs and schedules of disposal alternatives for mixed low-level radioactive waste (MLLW) and greater-than-Class-C (GTCC) waste, as well as spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and related scrap material

Non-Statistical Methods of Analysing of Bankruptcy Risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pisula Tomasz

2015-06-01

Full Text Available The article focuses on assessing the effectiveness of a non-statistical approach to bankruptcy modelling in enterprises operating in the logistics sector. In order to describe the issue more comprehensively, the aforementioned prediction of the possible negative results of business operations was carried out for companies functioning in the Polish region of Podkarpacie, and in Slovakia. The bankruptcy predictors selected for the assessment of companies operating in the logistics sector included 28 financial indicators characterizing these enterprises in terms of their financial standing and management effectiveness. The purpose of the study was to identify factors (models describing the bankruptcy risk in enterprises in the context of their forecasting effectiveness in a one-year and two-year time horizon. In order to assess their practical applicability the models were carefully analysed and validated. The usefulness of the models was assessed in terms of their classification properties, and the capacity to accurately identify enterprises at risk of bankruptcy and healthy companies as well as proper calibration of the models to the data from training sample sets.

Risk-based safety indicators

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Szikszai, T.

1997-01-01

The presentation discusses the following issues: The objectives of the risk-based indicator programme. The characteristics of the risk-based indicators. The objectives of risk-based safety indicators - in monitoring safety; in PSA applications. What indicators? How to produce the risk based indicators? PSA requirements

Configuration control based on risk matrix for radiotherapy treatment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Montes de Oca Quinnones, Joe; Torres Valle, Antonio

2015-01-01

The incorporation of the science and technique breakthroughs in the application of the radiotherapy represents a challenge so that, the appearance of equipment failure or human mistakes that triggers unfavorable consequences for patients, public, or the occupationally exposed workers; it is also diversified forcing to incorporate besides, as part of the efforts, new techniques for the evaluation of risk and the detection of the weak points that can lead to these consequences. In order to evaluate the risks of the radiotherapy practices there is the SEVRRA code, based on the method of Risk Matrix. The system SEVRRA is the most frequently used code in the applications of risk studies in radiotherapy treatment. On the other hand, starting from the development of tools to control the dangerous configurations in nuclear power plants, it has been developed the SECURE code, which in its application variant of Risk Matrix, has gain a comfortable interface man-machine to make risk analyses to the radiotherapy treatment, molding in this way a lot of combinations of scenarios. These capacities outstandingly facilitate the studies and risk optimization applications in these practices. In the system SECURE-Risk Matrix are incorporated graphic and analytical capacities, which make more flexible the analyses and the subsequent documentation of all the results. The paper shows the the application of the proposed system to an integral risk study for the process of radiotherapy treatment with linear accelerator. (Author)

Risk based modelling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chapman, O.J.V.; Baker, A.E.

1993-01-01

Risk based analysis is a tool becoming available to both engineers and managers to aid decision making concerning plant matters such as In-Service Inspection (ISI). In order to develop a risk based method, some form of Structural Reliability Risk Assessment (SRRA) needs to be performed to provide a probability of failure ranking for all sites around the plant. A Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) can then be carried out to combine these possible events with the capability of plant safety systems and procedures, to establish the consequences of failure for the sites. In this way the probability of failures are converted into a risk based ranking which can be used to assist the process of deciding which sites should be included in an ISI programme. This paper reviews the technique and typical results of a risk based ranking assessment carried out for nuclear power plant pipework. (author)

German data for risk based fire safety assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roewekamp, M.; Berg, H.P.

1998-01-01

Different types of data are necessary to perform risk based fire safety assessments and, in particular, to quantify the fire event tree considering the plant specific conditions. Data on fire barriers, fire detection and extinguishing, including also data on secondary effects of a fire, have to be used for quantifying the potential hazard and damage states. The existing German database on fires in nuclear power plants (NPPs) is very small. Therefore, in general generic data, mainly from US databases, are used for risk based safety assessments. Due to several differences in the plant design and conditions generic data can only be used as conservative assumptions. World-wide existing generic data on personnel failures in case of fire fighting have only to be adapted to the plant specific conditions inside the NPP to be investigated. In contrary, unavailabilities of fire barrier elements may differ strongly depending on different standards, testing requirements, etc. In addition, the operational behaviour of active fire protection equipment may vary depending on type and manufacturer. The necessity for more detailed and for additional plant specific data was the main reason for generating updated German data on the operational behaviour of active fire protection equipment/features in NPPs to support risk based fire safety analyses being recommended to be carried out as an additional tool to deterministic fire hazard analyses in the frame of safety reviews. The results of these investigations revealed a broader and more realistic database for technical reliability of active fire protection means, but improvements as well as collection of further data are still necessary. (author)

Accidental Risk Analyses of the Istanbul and Canakkale Straits

Science.gov (United States)

Essiz, Betül; Dagkiran, Berat

2017-12-01

Maritime transportation plays an important role in the world. Commercial transport and navy are international maritime activities in different countries. Thanks to the role of straits and channels, these activities can be easier and faster, Turkey has a crucial importance on it because of importance of geographical location. The Turkish Straits are a series of internationally significant waterways connecting Mediterranean Sea and Black Sea. They consist of the Canakkale Strait, the Sea of Marmara, and the Istanbul Strait, all part of the sovereign sea territory of Turkey and subject to the regime of internal waters. They are conventionally considered by the boundary between the continents of Europe and Asia. Because of this geographical importance, all kinds of huge sized vessel activities and high volume cargo transportation always keep going in this waterway. On the other hand, the more maritime activities grow the more accident risks increase. So, can be examined the accident risks on Istanbul and Canakkale Straits and can be assessed risk analysis for them. In the context of the study, one can see general information of the Turkish Straits and the regulatory regime. In addition, tables are applied for vessel movement in the Turkish Straits by years in detail in order to sense variation of the vessel. Risk analyses may also be described in sections with many variables. This paper outlines ship accidents and the risk analysis of ship accidents is applied and resulted for the Turkish Straits. The last chapter concerns the Vessel Traffic Service (VTS) System in the Turkish Straits.

Coronary risk assessment by point-based vs. equation-based Framingham models: significant implications for clinical care.

Science.gov (United States)

Gordon, William J; Polansky, Jesse M; Boscardin, W John; Fung, Kathy Z; Steinman, Michael A

2010-11-01

US cholesterol guidelines use original and simplified versions of the Framingham model to estimate future coronary risk and thereby classify patients into risk groups with different treatment strategies. We sought to compare risk estimates and risk group classification generated by the original, complex Framingham model and the simplified, point-based version. We assessed 2,543 subjects age 20-79 from the 2001-2006 National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (NHANES) for whom Adult Treatment Panel III (ATP-III) guidelines recommend formal risk stratification. For each subject, we calculated the 10-year risk of major coronary events using the original and point-based Framingham models, and then compared differences in these risk estimates and whether these differences would place subjects into different ATP-III risk groups (20% risk). Using standard procedures, all analyses were adjusted for survey weights, clustering, and stratification to make our results nationally representative. Among 39 million eligible adults, the original Framingham model categorized 71% of subjects as having "moderate" risk (20%) risk. Estimates of coronary risk by the original and point-based models often differed substantially. The point-based system classified 15% of adults (5.7 million) into different risk groups than the original model, with 10% (3.9 million) misclassified into higher risk groups and 5% (1.8 million) into lower risk groups, for a net impact of classifying 2.1 million adults into higher risk groups. These risk group misclassifications would impact guideline-recommended drug treatment strategies for 25-46% of affected subjects. Patterns of misclassifications varied significantly by gender, age, and underlying CHD risk. Compared to the original Framingham model, the point-based version misclassifies millions of Americans into risk groups for which guidelines recommend different treatment strategies.

Status, results and usefulness of risk analyses for HTGR type reactors of different capacity accessory to planning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kroeger, W.; Mertens, J.

1985-01-01

As regards system-inherent risks, HTGR type reactors are evaluated with reference to the established light-water-moderated reactor types. Probabilistic HTGR risk analyses have shown modern HTGR systems to possess a balanced safety concept with a risk remaining distinctly below legally accepted values. Inversely, the development and optimization of the safety concepts have been (and are being) essentially co-determined by the probabilistic analyses, as it is technically sensible and economically necessary to render the specific safety-related HTGR properties eligible for licensing. (orig./HP) [de

Risk-based inspection in the context of nuclear power plants

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Soares, Wellington A.; Vasconcelos, Vanderley de; Rabello, Emerson G., E-mail: soaresw@cdtn.br, E-mail: vasconv@cdtn.br, E-mail: egr@cdtn.br [Centro de Desenvolvimento da Tecnologia Nuclear (CDTN/CNEN-MG), Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil)

2015-07-01

Nuclear power plant owners have to consider several aspects like safety, availability, costs and radiation exposure during operation of nuclear power plants. They also need to demonstrate to regulatory bodies that risk assessment and inspection planning processes are being implemented in effective and appropriate manner. Risk-Based Inspection (RBI) is a methodology that, unlike time-based inspection, involves a quantitative assessment of both failure probability and consequence associated with each safety-related item. A correctly implemented RBI program classifies individual equipment by its risks and prioritizes inspection efforts based on this classification. While in traditional deterministic approach, the inspection frequencies are constant, in the RBI approach the inspection interval for each item depends on the risk level. Regularly, inspection intervals from RBI result in risk levels lower or equal than deterministic inspection intervals. According to the literature, RBI solutions improve integrity and reduce costs through a more effective inspection. Risk-Informed In-service Inspection (RI-ISI) is the equivalent term used in the nuclear area. Its use in nuclear power plants around world is briefly reviewed in this paper. Identification of practice methodologies for performing risk-based analyses presented in this paper can help both Brazilian nuclear power plant operator and regulatory body in evaluating the RI-ISI technique feasibility as a tool for optimizing inspections within nuclear plants. (author)

Risk-based inspection in the context of nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Soares, Wellington A.; Vasconcelos, Vanderley de; Rabello, Emerson G.

2015-01-01

Nuclear power plant owners have to consider several aspects like safety, availability, costs and radiation exposure during operation of nuclear power plants. They also need to demonstrate to regulatory bodies that risk assessment and inspection planning processes are being implemented in effective and appropriate manner. Risk-Based Inspection (RBI) is a methodology that, unlike time-based inspection, involves a quantitative assessment of both failure probability and consequence associated with each safety-related item. A correctly implemented RBI program classifies individual equipment by its risks and prioritizes inspection efforts based on this classification. While in traditional deterministic approach, the inspection frequencies are constant, in the RBI approach the inspection interval for each item depends on the risk level. Regularly, inspection intervals from RBI result in risk levels lower or equal than deterministic inspection intervals. According to the literature, RBI solutions improve integrity and reduce costs through a more effective inspection. Risk-Informed In-service Inspection (RI-ISI) is the equivalent term used in the nuclear area. Its use in nuclear power plants around world is briefly reviewed in this paper. Identification of practice methodologies for performing risk-based analyses presented in this paper can help both Brazilian nuclear power plant operator and regulatory body in evaluating the RI-ISI technique feasibility as a tool for optimizing inspections within nuclear plants. (author)

IMPROVING CONTROL ROOM DESIGN AND OPERATIONS BASED ON HUMAN FACTORS ANALYSES OR HOW MUCH HUMAN FACTORS UPGRADE IS ENOUGH ?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

HIGGINS,J.C.; OHARA,J.M.; ALMEIDA,P.

2002-09-19

THE JOSE CABRERA NUCLEAR POWER PLANT IS A ONE LOOP WESTINGHOUSE PRESSURIZED WATER REACTOR. IN THE CONTROL ROOM, THE DISPLAYS AND CONTROLS USED BY OPERATORS FOR THE EMERGENCY OPERATING PROCEDURES ARE DISTRIBUTED ON FRONT AND BACK PANELS. THIS CONFIGURATION CONTRIBUTED TO RISK IN THE PROBABILISTIC SAFETY ASSESSMENT WHERE IMPORTANT OPERATOR ACTIONS ARE REQUIRED. THIS STUDY WAS UNDERTAKEN TO EVALUATE THE IMPACT OF THE DESIGN ON CREW PERFORMANCE AND PLANT SAFETY AND TO DEVELOP DESIGN IMPROVEMENTS.FIVE POTENTIAL EFFECTS WERE IDENTIFIED. THEN NUREG-0711 [1], PROGRAMMATIC, HUMAN FACTORS, ANALYSES WERE CONDUCTED TO SYSTEMATICALLY EVALUATE THE CR-LA YOUT TO DETERMINE IF THERE WAS EVIDENCE OF THE POTENTIAL EFFECTS. THESE ANALYSES INCLUDED OPERATING EXPERIENCE REVIEW, PSA REVIEW, TASK ANALYSES, AND WALKTHROUGH SIMULATIONS. BASED ON THE RESULTS OF THESE ANALYSES, A VARIETY OF CONTROL ROOM MODIFICATIONS WERE IDENTIFIED. FROM THE ALTERNATIVES, A SELECTION WAS MADE THAT PROVIDED A REASONABLEBALANCE BE TWEEN PERFORMANCE, RISK AND ECONOMICS, AND MODIFICATIONS WERE MADE TO THE PLANT.

Methodical treatment of dependent failures in risk analyses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hennings, W.; Mertens, J.

1987-06-01

In this report the state-of-the-art regarding dependent failures is compiled and commented on. Among others the following recommendations are infered: The term 'common mode failures' should be restricted to failures of redundant, similar components; the generic term is 'dependent failures' with the subsets 'causal failures' and 'common cause failures'. In risk studies, dependent failures should be covered as far as possible by 'explicit methods'. Nevertheless an uncovered rest remains, which should be accounted for by sensitivity analyses using 'implicit methods'. For this the homogeneous Marshall-Olkin model is recommended. Because the available reports on operating experiences only record 'common mode failures' systematically, it is recommended to additionally apply other methods, e.g. carry out a 'precursor study'. (orig.) [de

Evaluating the Investment Benefit of Multinational Enterprises' International Projects Based on Risk Adjustment: Evidence from China

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Chong

2016-01-01

This study examines the international risks faced by multinational enterprises to understand their impact on the evaluation of investment projects. Moreover, it establishes a 'three-dimensional' theoretical framework of risk identification to analyse the composition of international risk indicators of multinational enterprises based on the theory…

Market analyses of livestock trade networks to inform the prevention of joint economic and epidemiological risks.

Science.gov (United States)

Moslonka-Lefebvre, Mathieu; Gilligan, Christopher A; Monod, Hervé; Belloc, Catherine; Ezanno, Pauline; Filipe, João A N; Vergu, Elisabeta

2016-03-01

Conventional epidemiological studies of infections spreading through trade networks, e.g., via livestock movements, generally show that central large-size holdings (hubs) should be preferentially surveyed and controlled in order to reduce epidemic spread. However, epidemiological strategies alone may not be economically optimal when costs of control are factored in together with risks of market disruption from targeting core holdings in a supply chain. Using extensive data on animal movements in supply chains for cattle and swine in France, we introduce a method to identify effective strategies for preventing outbreaks with limited budgets while minimizing the risk of market disruptions. Our method involves the categorization of holdings based on position along the supply chain and degree of market share. Our analyses suggest that trade has a higher risk of propagating epidemics through cattle networks, which are dominated by exchanges involving wholesalers, than for swine. We assess the effectiveness of contrasting interventions from the perspectives of regulators and the market, using percolation analysis. We show that preferentially targeting minor, non-central agents can outperform targeting of hubs when the costs to stakeholders and the risks of market disturbance are considered. Our study highlights the importance of assessing joint economic-epidemiological risks in networks underlying pathogen propagation and trade. © 2016 The Authors.

Market analyses of livestock trade networks to inform the prevention of joint economic and epidemiological risks

Science.gov (United States)

Gilligan, Christopher A.; Belloc, Catherine; Filipe, João A. N.; Vergu, Elisabeta

2016-01-01

Conventional epidemiological studies of infections spreading through trade networks, e.g. via livestock movements, generally show that central large-size holdings (hubs) should be preferentially surveyed and controlled in order to reduce epidemic spread. However, epidemiological strategies alone may not be economically optimal when costs of control are factored in together with risks of market disruption from targeting core holdings in a supply chain. Using extensive data on animal movements in supply chains for cattle and swine in France, we introduce a method to identify effective strategies for preventing outbreaks with limited budgets while minimizing the risk of market disruptions. Our method involves the categorization of holdings based on position along the supply chain and degree of market share. Our analyses suggest that trade has a higher risk of propagating epidemics through cattle networks, which are dominated by exchanges involving wholesalers, than for swine. We assess the effectiveness of contrasting interventions from the perspectives of regulators and the market, using percolation analysis. We show that preferentially targeting minor, non-central agents can outperform targeting of hubs when the costs to stakeholders and the risks of market disturbance are considered. Our study highlights the importance of assessing joint economic–epidemiological risks in networks underlying pathogen propagation and trade. PMID:26984191

Systematic assessment of environmental risk factors for bipolar disorder: an umbrella review of systematic reviews and meta-analyses.

Science.gov (United States)

Bortolato, Beatrice; Köhler, Cristiano A; Evangelou, Evangelos; León-Caballero, Jordi; Solmi, Marco; Stubbs, Brendon; Belbasis, Lazaros; Pacchiarotti, Isabella; Kessing, Lars V; Berk, Michael; Vieta, Eduard; Carvalho, André F

2017-03-01

The pathophysiology of bipolar disorder is likely to involve both genetic and environmental risk factors. In our study, we aimed to perform a systematic search of environmental risk factors for BD. In addition, we assessed possible hints of bias in this literature, and identified risk factors supported by high epidemiological credibility. We searched the Pubmed/MEDLINE, EMBASE and PsycInfo databases up to 7 October 2016 to identify systematic reviews and meta-analyses of observational studies that assessed associations between putative environmental risk factors and BD. For each meta-analysis, we estimated its summary effect size by means of both random- and fixed-effects models, 95% confidence intervals (CIs), the 95% prediction interval, and heterogeneity. Evidence of small-study effects and excess of significance bias was also assessed. Sixteen publications met the inclusion criteria (seven meta-analyses and nine qualitative systematic reviews). Fifty-one unique environmental risk factors for BD were evaluated. Six meta-analyses investigated associations with a risk factor for BD. Only irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) emerged as a risk factor for BD supported by convincing evidence (k=6; odds ratio [OR]=2.48; 95% CI=2.35-2.61; P<.001), and childhood adversity was supported by highly suggestive evidence. Asthma and obesity were risk factors for BD supported by suggestive evidence, and seropositivity to Toxoplasma gondii and a history of head injury were supported by weak evidence. Notwithstanding that several environmental risk factors for BD were identified, few meta-analyses of observational studies were available. Therefore, further well-designed and adequately powered studies are necessary to map the environmental risk factors for BD. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Development of reliability databases and the particular requirements of probabilistic risk analyses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Meslin, T.

1989-01-01

Nuclear utilities have an increasing need to develop reliability databases for their operating experience. The purposes of these databases are often multiple, including both equipment maintenance aspects and probabilistic risk analyses. EDF has therefore been developing experience feedback databases, including the Reliability Data Recording System (SRDF) and the Event File, as well as the history of numerous operating documents. Furthermore, since the end of 1985, EDF has been preparing a probabilistic safety analysis applied to one 1,300 MWe unit, for which a large amount of data of French origin is necessary. This data concerns both component reliability parameters and initiating event frequencies. The study has thus been an opportunity for trying out the performance databases for a specific application, as well as in-depth audits of a number of nuclear sites to make it possible to validate numerous results. Computer aided data collection is also on trial in a number of plants. After describing the EDF operating experience feedback files, we discuss the particular requirements of probabilistic risk analyses, and the resources implemented by EDF to satisfy them. (author). 5 refs

Bayesian uncertainty analyses of probabilistic risk models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pulkkinen, U.

1989-01-01

Applications of Bayesian principles to the uncertainty analyses are discussed in the paper. A short review of the most important uncertainties and their causes is provided. An application of the principle of maximum entropy to the determination of Bayesian prior distributions is described. An approach based on so called probabilistic structures is presented in order to develop a method of quantitative evaluation of modelling uncertainties. The method is applied to a small example case. Ideas for application areas for the proposed method are discussed

Serum Lipid Profiles and Cancer Risk in the Context of Obesity: Four Meta-Analyses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Melvin, J. C.; Holmberg, L.; Hemelrijck, M. V.

2013-01-01

The objective here was to summarize the evidence for, and quantify the link between, serum markers of lipid metabolism and risk of obesity-related cancers. Pub Med and Embase were searched using predefined inclusion criteria to conduct meta-analyses on the association between serum levels of TG, TC, HDL, ApoA-I, and risk of 11 obesity-related cancers. Pooled relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals were estimated using random-effects analyses. 28 studies were included. Associations between abnormal lipid components and risk of obesity-related cancers when using clinical cut points ( TC ≥ 6.50; TG ≥ 1.71; HDL ≤ 1.03; ApoA-I ≤ 1.05 mmol/L) were apparent in all models. RRs were 1.18 (95% CI: 1.08-1.29) for TC, 1.20 (1.07-1.35) for TG, 1.15 (1.01-1.32) for HDL, and 1.42 (1.17-1.74) for ApoA-I. High levels of TC and TG, as well as low levels of HDL and ApoA-I, were consistently associated with increased risk of obesity-related cancers. The modest RRs suggest serum lipids to be associated with the risk of cancer, but indicate it is likely that other markers of the metabolism and/or lifestyle factors may also be involved. Future intervention studies involving lifestyle modification would provide insight into the potential biological role of lipid metabolism in tumorigenesis.

Conclusive meta-analyses on antenatal magnesium may be inconclusive! Are we underestimating the risk of random error?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Brok, Jesper; Huusom, Lene D; Thorlund, Kristian

2012-01-01

Results from meta-analyses significantly influence clinical practice. Both simulation and empirical studies have demonstrated that the risk of random error (i.e. spurious chance findings) in meta-analyses is much higher than previously anticipated. Hence, authors and users of systematic reviews a...... about the investigated intervention effect(s). We outline the rationale for conducting trial sequential analysis including some examples of the meta-analysis on antenatal magnesium for women at risk of preterm birth....

Pathway-based analyses.

Science.gov (United States)

Kent, Jack W

2016-02-03

New technologies for acquisition of genomic data, while offering unprecedented opportunities for genetic discovery, also impose severe burdens of interpretation and penalties for multiple testing. The Pathway-based Analyses Group of the Genetic Analysis Workshop 19 (GAW19) sought reduction of multiple-testing burden through various approaches to aggregation of highdimensional data in pathways informed by prior biological knowledge. Experimental methods testedincluded the use of "synthetic pathways" (random sets of genes) to estimate power and false-positive error rate of methods applied to simulated data; data reduction via independent components analysis, single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP)-SNP interaction, and use of gene sets to estimate genetic similarity; and general assessment of the efficacy of prior biological knowledge to reduce the dimensionality of complex genomic data. The work of this group explored several promising approaches to managing high-dimensional data, with the caveat that these methods are necessarily constrained by the quality of external bioinformatic annotation.

77 FR 53059 - Risk-Based Capital Guidelines: Market Risk

Science.gov (United States)

2012-08-30

...'' framework that includes (1) Risk-based capital requirements for credit risk, market risk, and operational... default and credit quality migration risk for non-securitization credit products. With respect to... securitization positions, the revisions assign a specific risk- weighting factor based on the credit rating of a...

Risk-based safety indicators

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sedlak, J.

2001-12-01

The report is structured as follows: 1. Risk-based safety indicators: Typology of risk-based indicators (RBIs); Tools for defining RBIs; Requirements for the PSA model; Data sources for RBIs; Types of risks monitored; RBIs and operational safety indicators; Feedback from operating experience; PSO model modification for RBIs; RBI categorization; RBI assessment; RBI applications; Suitable RBI applications. 2. Proposal for risk-based indicators: Acquiring information from operational experience; Method of acquiring safety relevance coefficients for the systems from a PSA model; Indicator definitions; On-line indicators. 3. Annex: Application of RBIs worldwide. (P.A.)

Night shift work and breast cancer risk: what do the meta-analyses tell us?

Science.gov (United States)

Pahwa, Manisha; Labrèche, France; Demers, Paul A

2018-05-22

Objectives This paper aims to compare results, assess the quality, and discuss the implications of recently published meta-analyses of night shift work and breast cancer risk. Methods A comprehensive search was conducted for meta-analyses published from 2007-2017 that included at least one pooled effect size (ES) for breast cancer associated with any night shift work exposure metric and were accompanied by a systematic literature review. Pooled ES from each meta-analysis were ascertained with a focus on ever/never exposure associations. Assessments of heterogeneity and publication bias were also extracted. The AMSTAR 2 checklist was used to evaluate quality. Results Seven meta-analyses, published from 2013-2016, collectively included 30 cohort and case-control studies spanning 1996-2016. Five meta-analyses reported pooled ES for ever/never night shift work exposure; these ranged from 0.99 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.95-1.03, N=10 cohort studies) to 1.40 (95% CI 1.13-1.73, N=9 high quality studies). Estimates for duration, frequency, and cumulative night shift work exposure were scant and mostly not statistically significant. Meta-analyses of cohort, Asian, and more fully-adjusted studies generally resulted in lower pooled ES than case-control, European, American, or minimally-adjusted studies. Most reported statistically significant between-study heterogeneity. Publication bias was not evident in any of the meta-analyses. Only one meta-analysis was strong in critical quality domains. Conclusions Fairly consistent elevated pooled ES were found for ever/never night shift work and breast cancer risk, but results for other shift work exposure metrics were inconclusive. Future evaluations of shift work should incorporate high quality meta-analyses that better appraise individual study quality.

Alcohol Consumption as a Risk Factor for Acute and Chronic Pancreatitis: A Systematic Review and a Series of Meta-analyses.

Science.gov (United States)

Samokhvalov, Andriy V; Rehm, Jürgen; Roerecke, Michael

2015-12-01

Pancreatitis is a highly prevalent medical condition associated with a spectrum of endocrine and exocrine pancreatic insufficiencies. While high alcohol consumption is an established risk factor for pancreatitis, its relationship with specific types of pancreatitis and a potential threshold have not been systematically examined. We conducted a systematic literature search for studies on the association between alcohol consumption and pancreatitis based on PRISMA guidelines. Non-linear and linear random-effect dose-response meta-analyses using restricted cubic spline meta-regressions and categorical meta-analyses in relation to abstainers were conducted. Seven studies with 157,026 participants and 3618 cases of pancreatitis were included into analyses. The dose-response relationship between average volume of alcohol consumption and risk of pancreatitis was monotonic with no evidence of non-linearity for chronic pancreatitis (CP) for both sexes (p = 0.091) and acute pancreatitis (AP) in men (p = 0.396); it was non-linear for AP in women (p = 0.008). Compared to abstention, there was a significant decrease in risk (RR = 0.76, 95%CI: 0.60-0.97) of AP in women below the threshold of 40 g/day. No such association was found in men (RR = 1.1, 95%CI: 0.69-1.74). The RR for CP at 100 g/day was 6.29 (95%CI: 3.04-13.02). The dose-response relationships between alcohol consumption and risk of pancreatitis were monotonic for CP and AP in men, and non-linear for AP in women. Alcohol consumption below 40 g/day was associated with reduced risk of AP in women. Alcohol consumption beyond this level was increasingly detrimental for any type of pancreatitis. The work was financially supported by a grant from the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism (R21AA023521) to the last author.

Technical methods for a risk-informed, performance-based fire protection program at nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dey, M.K.

2000-01-01

This paper presents a technical review and examination of technical methods that are available for developing a risk-informed, performance-based fire protection program at a nuclear plant. The technical methods include 'engineering tools' for examining the fire dynamics of fire protection problems, reliability techniques for establishing an optimal fire protection surveillance program, fire computer codes for analyzing important fire protection safety parameters, and risk-informed approaches that can range from drawing qualitative insights from risk information to quantifying the risk impact of alternative fire protection approaches. Based on this technical review and examination, it is concluded that methods for modeling fires, and reliability and fire probabilistic risk analyses (PRA) are currently available to support the initial implementation of simple risk-informed, performance-based approaches in fire protection programs. (orig.) [de

Apparently conclusive meta-analyses may be inconclusive--Trial sequential analysis adjustment of random error risk due to repetitive testing of accumulating data in apparently conclusive neonatal meta-analyses

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Brok, Jesper; Thorlund, Kristian; Wetterslev, Jørn

2008-01-01

BACKGROUND: Random error may cause misleading evidence in meta-analyses. The required number of participants in a meta-analysis (i.e. information size) should be at least as large as an adequately powered single trial. Trial sequential analysis (TSA) may reduce risk of random errors due to repeti......BACKGROUND: Random error may cause misleading evidence in meta-analyses. The required number of participants in a meta-analysis (i.e. information size) should be at least as large as an adequately powered single trial. Trial sequential analysis (TSA) may reduce risk of random errors due...

Comprehensive review of genetic association studies and meta-analyses on miRNA polymorphisms and cancer risk.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kshitij Srivastava

Full Text Available MicroRNAs (miRNAs are small RNA molecules that regulate the expression of corresponding messenger RNAs (mRNAs. Variations in the level of expression of distinct miRNAs have been observed in the genesis, progression and prognosis of multiple human malignancies. The present study was aimed to investigate the association between four highly studied miRNA polymorphisms (mir-146a rs2910164, mir-196a2 rs11614913, mir-149 rs2292832 and mir-499 rs3746444 and cancer risk by using a two-sided meta-analytic approach.An updated meta-analysis based on 53 independent case-control studies consisting of 27573 cancer cases and 34791 controls was performed. Odds ratio (OR and 95% confidence interval (95% CI were used to investigate the strength of the association.Overall, the pooled analysis showed that mir-196a2 rs11614913 was associated with a decreased cancer risk (OR = 0.846, P = 0.004, TT vs. CC while other miRNA SNPs showed no association with overall cancer risk. Subgroup analyses based on type of cancer and ethnicity were also performed, and results indicated that there was a strong association between miR-146a rs2910164 and overall cancer risk in Caucasian population under recessive model (OR = 1.274, 95%CI = 1.096-1.481, P = 0.002. Stratified analysis by cancer type also associated mir-196a2 rs11614913 with lung and colorectal cancer at allelic and genotypic level.The present meta-analysis suggests an important role of mir-196a2 rs11614913 polymorphism with overall cancer risk especially in Asian population. Further studies with large sample size are needed to evaluate and confirm this association.

A Bayesian network model for predicting type 2 diabetes risk based on electronic health records

Science.gov (United States)

Xie, Jiang; Liu, Yan; Zeng, Xu; Zhang, Wu; Mei, Zhen

2017-07-01

An extensive, in-depth study of diabetes risk factors (DBRF) is of crucial importance to prevent (or reduce) the chance of suffering from type 2 diabetes (T2D). Accumulation of electronic health records (EHRs) makes it possible to build nonlinear relationships between risk factors and diabetes. However, the current DBRF researches mainly focus on qualitative analyses, and the inconformity of physical examination items makes the risk factors likely to be lost, which drives us to study the novel machine learning approach for risk model development. In this paper, we use Bayesian networks (BNs) to analyze the relationship between physical examination information and T2D, and to quantify the link between risk factors and T2D. Furthermore, with the quantitative analyses of DBRF, we adopt EHR and propose a machine learning approach based on BNs to predict the risk of T2D. The experiments demonstrate that our approach can lead to better predictive performance than the classical risk model.

Technical methods for a risk-informed, performance-based fire protection program at nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dey, M.K.

1998-01-01

This paper presents a technical review and examination of technical methods that are available for developing a risk-informed, performance-based fire protection program at a nuclear plant. The technical methods include ''engineering tools'' for examining the fire dynamics of fire protection problems, reliability techniques for establishing an optimal fire protection surveillance program, fire computer codes for analyzing important fire protection safety parameters, and risk-informed approaches that can range from drawing qualitative insights from risk information to quantifying the risk impact of alternative fire protection approaches. Based on this technical review and examination, it is concluded that methods for modeling fires, and reliability and fire PRA analyses are currently available to support the initial implementation of simple risk-informed, performance-based approaches in fire protection programs. (author)

Cardiovascular Disease Risk in a Large, Population-Based Cohort of Breast Cancer Survivors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boekel, Naomi B.; Schaapveld, Michael; Gietema, Jourik A.; Russell, Nicola S.; Poortmans, Philip; Theuws, Jacqueline C.M.; Schinagl, Dominic A.X.; Rietveld, Derek H.F.; Versteegh, Michel I.M.; Visser, Otto; Rutgers, Emiel J.T.; Aleman, Berthe M.P.; Leeuwen, Flora E. van

2016-01-01

Purpose: To conduct a large, population-based study on cardiovascular disease (CVD) in breast cancer (BC) survivors treated in 1989 or later. Methods and Materials: A large, population-based cohort comprising 70,230 surgically treated stage I to III BC patients diagnosed before age 75 years between 1989 and 2005 was linked with population-based registries for CVD. Cardiovascular disease risks were compared with the general population, and within the cohort using competing risk analyses. Results: Compared with the general Dutch population, BC patients had a slightly lower CVD mortality risk (standardized mortality ratio 0.92, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.88-0.97). Only death due to valvular heart disease was more frequent (standardized mortality ratio 1.28, 95% CI 1.08-1.52). Left-sided radiation therapy after mastectomy increased the risk of any cardiovascular event compared with both surgery alone (subdistribution hazard ratio (sHR) 1.23, 95% CI 1.11-1.36) and right-sided radiation therapy (sHR 1.19, 95% CI 1.04-1.36). Radiation-associated risks were found for not only ischemic heart disease, but also for valvular heart disease and congestive heart failure (CHF). Risks were more pronounced in patients aged <50 years at BC diagnosis (sHR 1.48, 95% CI 1.07-2.04 for left- vs right-sided radiation therapy after mastectomy). Left- versus right-sided radiation therapy after wide local excision did not increase the risk of all CVD combined, yet an increased ischemic heart disease risk was found (sHR 1.14, 95% CI 1.01-1.28). Analyses including detailed radiation therapy information showed an increased CVD risk for left-sided chest wall irradiation alone, left-sided breast irradiation alone, and internal mammary chain field irradiation, all compared with right-sided breast irradiation alone. Compared with patients not treated with chemotherapy, chemotherapy used ≥1997 (ie, anthracyline-based chemotherapy) increased the risk of CHF (sHR 1.35, 95% CI 1

Cardiovascular Disease Risk in a Large, Population-Based Cohort of Breast Cancer Survivors

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Boekel, Naomi B.; Schaapveld, Michael [Epidemiology, Netherlands Cancer Institute, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Gietema, Jourik A. [Medical Oncology, University Medical Center Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Russell, Nicola S. [Radiation Oncology, Netherlands Cancer Institute, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Poortmans, Philip [Radiation Oncology, Institute Verbeeten, Tilburg (Netherlands); Radiation Oncology, Radboud University Nijmegen Medical Center, Nijmegen (Netherlands); Theuws, Jacqueline C.M. [Radiotherapy, Catharina Hospital Eindhoven, Eindhoven (Netherlands); Schinagl, Dominic A.X. [Radiation Oncology, Radboud University Nijmegen Medical Center, Nijmegen (Netherlands); Rietveld, Derek H.F. [Radiation Oncology, VU University Medical Center Amsterdam, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Versteegh, Michel I.M. [Steering Committee Cardiac Interventions Netherlands, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden (Netherlands); Visser, Otto [Registration and Research, Comprehensive Cancer Center The Netherlands, Utrecht (Netherlands); Rutgers, Emiel J.T. [Surgery, Netherlands Cancer Institute, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Aleman, Berthe M.P. [Radiation Oncology, Netherlands Cancer Institute, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Leeuwen, Flora E. van, E-mail: f.v.leeuwen@nki.nl [Epidemiology, Netherlands Cancer Institute, Amsterdam (Netherlands)

2016-04-01

Purpose: To conduct a large, population-based study on cardiovascular disease (CVD) in breast cancer (BC) survivors treated in 1989 or later. Methods and Materials: A large, population-based cohort comprising 70,230 surgically treated stage I to III BC patients diagnosed before age 75 years between 1989 and 2005 was linked with population-based registries for CVD. Cardiovascular disease risks were compared with the general population, and within the cohort using competing risk analyses. Results: Compared with the general Dutch population, BC patients had a slightly lower CVD mortality risk (standardized mortality ratio 0.92, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.88-0.97). Only death due to valvular heart disease was more frequent (standardized mortality ratio 1.28, 95% CI 1.08-1.52). Left-sided radiation therapy after mastectomy increased the risk of any cardiovascular event compared with both surgery alone (subdistribution hazard ratio (sHR) 1.23, 95% CI 1.11-1.36) and right-sided radiation therapy (sHR 1.19, 95% CI 1.04-1.36). Radiation-associated risks were found for not only ischemic heart disease, but also for valvular heart disease and congestive heart failure (CHF). Risks were more pronounced in patients aged <50 years at BC diagnosis (sHR 1.48, 95% CI 1.07-2.04 for left- vs right-sided radiation therapy after mastectomy). Left- versus right-sided radiation therapy after wide local excision did not increase the risk of all CVD combined, yet an increased ischemic heart disease risk was found (sHR 1.14, 95% CI 1.01-1.28). Analyses including detailed radiation therapy information showed an increased CVD risk for left-sided chest wall irradiation alone, left-sided breast irradiation alone, and internal mammary chain field irradiation, all compared with right-sided breast irradiation alone. Compared with patients not treated with chemotherapy, chemotherapy used ≥1997 (ie, anthracyline-based chemotherapy) increased the risk of CHF (sHR 1.35, 95% CI 1

A performance-oriented and risk-based regulation for containment testing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dey, M.

1994-01-01

In August 1992, the NRC initiated a major initiative to develop requirements for containment testing that are less prescriptive, and more performance-oriented and risk-based. This action was a result of public comments and several studies that concluded that the economic burden of certain, present containment testing requirements are not commensurate with their safety benefits. The rulemaking will include consideration of relaxing the allowable containment leakage rate, increasing the interval for the integrated containment test, and establishing intervals for the local containment leak rate tests based on their performance. A study has been conducted to provide technical information for establishing the performance criteria for containment tests, the allowable leakage rate, commensurate with its significance to total public risk. The study used results of a recent comprehensive study conducted by the NRC, NUREG-1150, 'Severe Accident Risks: An Assessment for Five U.S. Nuclear Power Plants,' to examine the sensitivity of containment leakage to public risk. Risk was found to be insensitive to containment leakage rate up to levels of about 100 percent-volume per day for certain types of containments. PRA methods have also been developed to establish risk-based intervals for containment tests based on their past experience. Preliminary evaluations show that increasing the interval for the integrated containment leakage test from three times to once every ten years would have an insignificant impact on public risk. Preliminary analyses of operational experience data for local leak rate tests show that performance-based testing, valves and penetrations that perform well are tested less frequently, is feasible with marginal impact on safety. The above technical studies are being used to develop efficient (cost-effective) requirements for containment tests. (author). 4 refs., 2 figs

The importance of probabilistic evaluations in connection with risk analyses according to technical safety laws

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mathiak, E.

1984-01-01

The nuclear energy sector exemplifies the essential importance to be attached to the practical application of probabilistic evaluations (e.g. probabilistic reliability analyses) in connection with the legal risk assessment of technical systems and installations. The study is making use of a triad risk analysis and tries to reconcile the natural science and legal points of view. Without changing the definitions of 'risk' and 'hazard' in the legal sense of their meaning the publication discusses their reconcilation with the laws of natural science, their interpretation and application in view of the latter. (HSCH) [de

Risk-based configuration control

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Szikszai, T.

1997-01-01

The presentation discusses the following issues: The Configuration Control; The Risk-based Configuration Control (during power operation mode, and during shutdown mode). PSA requirements. Use of Risk-based Configuration Control System. Configuration Management (basic elements, benefits, information requirements)

[Clinical research XXIII. From clinical judgment to meta-analyses].

Science.gov (United States)

Rivas-Ruiz, Rodolfo; Castelán-Martínez, Osvaldo D; Pérez-Rodríguez, Marcela; Palacios-Cruz, Lino; Noyola-Castillo, Maura E; Talavera, Juan O

2014-01-01

Systematic reviews (SR) are studies made in order to ask clinical questions based on original articles. Meta-analysis (MTA) is the mathematical analysis of SR. These analyses are divided in two groups, those which evaluate the measured results of quantitative variables (for example, the body mass index -BMI-) and those which evaluate qualitative variables (for example, if a patient is alive or dead, or if he is healing or not). Quantitative variables generally use the mean difference analysis and qualitative variables can be performed using several calculations: odds ratio (OR), relative risk (RR), absolute risk reduction (ARR) and hazard ratio (HR). These analyses are represented through forest plots which allow the evaluation of each individual study, as well as the heterogeneity between studies and the overall effect of the intervention. These analyses are mainly based on Student's t test and chi-squared. To take appropriate decisions based on the MTA, it is important to understand the characteristics of statistical methods in order to avoid misinterpretations.

Development of risk-based nanomaterial groups for occupational exposure control

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kuempel, E. D.; Castranova, V.; Geraci, C. L.; Schulte, P. A.

2012-01-01

Given the almost limitless variety of nanomaterials, it will be virtually impossible to assess the possible occupational health hazard of each nanomaterial individually. The development of science-based hazard and risk categories for nanomaterials is needed for decision-making about exposure control practices in the workplace. A possible strategy would be to select representative (benchmark) materials from various mode of action (MOA) classes, evaluate the hazard and develop risk estimates, and then apply a systematic comparison of new nanomaterials with the benchmark materials in the same MOA class. Poorly soluble particles are used here as an example to illustrate quantitative risk assessment methods for possible benchmark particles and occupational exposure control groups, given mode of action and relative toxicity. Linking such benchmark particles to specific exposure control bands would facilitate the translation of health hazard and quantitative risk information to the development of effective exposure control practices in the workplace. A key challenge is obtaining sufficient dose–response data, based on standard testing, to systematically evaluate the nanomaterials’ physical–chemical factors influencing their biological activity. Categorization processes involve both science-based analyses and default assumptions in the absence of substance-specific information. Utilizing data and information from related materials may facilitate initial determinations of exposure control systems for nanomaterials.

Development of risk-based nanomaterial groups for occupational exposure control

Science.gov (United States)

Kuempel, E. D.; Castranova, V.; Geraci, C. L.; Schulte, P. A.

2012-09-01

Given the almost limitless variety of nanomaterials, it will be virtually impossible to assess the possible occupational health hazard of each nanomaterial individually. The development of science-based hazard and risk categories for nanomaterials is needed for decision-making about exposure control practices in the workplace. A possible strategy would be to select representative (benchmark) materials from various mode of action (MOA) classes, evaluate the hazard and develop risk estimates, and then apply a systematic comparison of new nanomaterials with the benchmark materials in the same MOA class. Poorly soluble particles are used here as an example to illustrate quantitative risk assessment methods for possible benchmark particles and occupational exposure control groups, given mode of action and relative toxicity. Linking such benchmark particles to specific exposure control bands would facilitate the translation of health hazard and quantitative risk information to the development of effective exposure control practices in the workplace. A key challenge is obtaining sufficient dose-response data, based on standard testing, to systematically evaluate the nanomaterials' physical-chemical factors influencing their biological activity. Categorization processes involve both science-based analyses and default assumptions in the absence of substance-specific information. Utilizing data and information from related materials may facilitate initial determinations of exposure control systems for nanomaterials.

Insights from the analyses of risk-informed extension of diesel generator allowed outage time

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lin, J.C.; He Wei

2005-01-01

In recent years, many U.S. nuclear plants have applied and received approval for the risk-informed extension of the Allowed Outage Time (AOT) for Emergency Diesel Generators (EDGs). These risk-informed applications need to meet the regulatory guidance on the risk criteria. This paper discusses in detail insights derived from the risk-informed analyses performed to support these applications. The risk criteria on ΔCDF/ΔLERF evaluate the increase in average risk by extending the AOT for EDGs, induced primarily by an increase in EDG maintenance unavailability due to the introduction of additional EDG preventive maintenance. By performing this preventive maintenance work on-line, the outage duration can be shortened. With proper refinement of the risk model, most plants can meet the ΔCDF/ΔLERF criteria for extending the EDGAOT from, for example, 3 days to 14 days. The key areas for model enhancements to meet these criteria include offsite/onsite power recovery, LERF modeling, etc. The most important LERF model enhancements consist of refinement of the penetrations included in the containment isolation model for the consideration of a large release, and taking credit for operator vessel depressurization during the time period between core damage and vessel failure. A recent study showed that although the frequency of loss of offsite power (LOSP) has decreased, the duration of offsite power recovery has actually increased. However, many of the events used to derive this conclusion may not be applicable to PRAs. One approach develops the offsite power non-recovery factor by first screening the LOSP events for applicability to the plant being analyzed, power operation, and LOSP initiating event, then using the remaining events data for the derivation based on the fraction of events with recovery duration longer than the time window allowed. The risk criteria on ICCDP/ICLERP examine the increase in risk from the average CDF/LERF, based on the increased maintenance

Applying the Land Use Portfolio Model with Hazus to analyse risk from natural hazard events

Science.gov (United States)

Dinitz, Laura B.; Taketa, Richard A.

2013-01-01

This paper describes and demonstrates the integration of two geospatial decision-support systems for natural-hazard risk assessment and management. Hazus is a risk-assessment tool developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency to identify risks and estimate the severity of risk from natural hazards. The Land Use Portfolio Model (LUPM) is a risk-management tool developed by the U.S. Geological Survey to evaluate plans or actions intended to reduce risk from natural hazards. We analysed three mitigation policies for one earthquake scenario in the San Francisco Bay area to demonstrate the added value of using Hazus and the LUPM together. The demonstration showed that Hazus loss estimates can be input to the LUPM to obtain estimates of losses avoided through mitigation, rates of return on mitigation investment, and measures of uncertainty. Together, they offer a more comprehensive approach to help with decisions for reducing risk from natural hazards.

GIS-based Approaches to Catchment Area Analyses of Mass Transit

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Jonas Lohmann Elkjær; Landex, Alex

2009-01-01

Catchment area analyses of stops or stations are used to investigate potential number of travelers to public transportation. These analyses are considered a strong decision tool in the planning process of mass transit especially railroads. Catchment area analyses are GIS-based buffer and overlay...... analyses with different approaches depending on the desired level of detail. A simple but straightforward approach to implement is the Circular Buffer Approach where catchment areas are circular. A more detailed approach is the Service Area Approach where catchment areas are determined by a street network...... search to simulate the actual walking distances. A refinement of the Service Area Approach is to implement additional time resistance in the network search to simulate obstacles in the walking environment. This paper reviews and compares the different GIS-based catchment area approaches, their level...

Analyser-based phase contrast image reconstruction using geometrical optics.

Science.gov (United States)

Kitchen, M J; Pavlov, K M; Siu, K K W; Menk, R H; Tromba, G; Lewis, R A

2007-07-21

Analyser-based phase contrast imaging can provide radiographs of exceptional contrast at high resolution (geometrical optics are satisfied. Analytical phase retrieval can be performed by fitting the analyser rocking curve with a symmetric Pearson type VII function. The Pearson VII function provided at least a 10% better fit to experimentally measured rocking curves than linear or Gaussian functions. A test phantom, a hollow nylon cylinder, was imaged at 20 keV using a Si(1 1 1) analyser at the ELETTRA synchrotron radiation facility. Our phase retrieval method yielded a more accurate object reconstruction than methods based on a linear fit to the rocking curve. Where reconstructions failed to map expected values, calculations of the Takagi number permitted distinction between the violation of the geometrical optics conditions and the failure of curve fitting procedures. The need for synchronized object/detector translation stages was removed by using a large, divergent beam and imaging the object in segments. Our image acquisition and reconstruction procedure enables quantitative phase retrieval for systems with a divergent source and accounts for imperfections in the analyser.

[The genotype-based haplotype relative risk and transmission disequilibrium test analyses of familial febrile convulsions].

Science.gov (United States)

Qi, Y; Wu, X; Guo, Z; Zhang, J; Pan, H; Li, M; Bao, X; Peng, J; Zou, L; Lin, Q

1999-10-01

To confirm the linkage of familial febrile convulsions to the short arm of chromosome 6(6p) or the long arm of chromosome 8(8q). The authors finished genotyping of Pst I locus on the coding region of heat shock protein (HSP) 70, 5'untranslated region of HSP70-1, 3' untranslated region of HSP70-2, D8S84 and D8S85. The data were processed by the genotype-based haplotype relative risk(GHRR) and transmission disequilibrium test(TDT) methods in PPAP. Some signs of association and disequilibrium between D8S85 and FC were shown by GHRR and TDT. A suspect linkage of familial febrile convulsions to the long arm of chromosome 8 has been proposed.

Sandia Transportation Technical Environmental Information Center and its application to transportation risk analyses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Foley, J.T.; Davidson, C.A.; McClure, J.D.

1978-01-01

Purpose of this paper is to describe an applied research activity which is fundamental to the conduct of transportation analyses: the collection, analysis, storage, and retrieval of information on the intensities of technical environments. This paper describes the collection system which provides such a service to official researchers in transportation analysis and the applications of this information in the area of risk analysis

Risk-based regulation: Challenges and opportunities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bari, R.A.

1995-01-01

Over the last twenty years, man has witnessed a gradual but steady movement toward increased usage of risk-based methods and results in the regulatory process. The ''risk perspective'' as a supportive view to existing (non-risk-based or deterministic) information used in decision making has a firm foothold now in most countries that regulate nuclear power. Furthermore, in the areas outside the nuclear power field, such as health risk assessment, risk-based information is used increasingly to make decisions on potential impacts of chemical, biological, and radiological exposures. Some of the principal concepts and issues that are pertinent to risk-based regulation are reviewed. There is a growing interest in most countries in the use of risk-based methods and results to facilitate decision-making associated with regulatory processes. A summary is presented of the challenges and opportunities related to expanded use of risk-based regulation

Cost Risk Analysis Based on Perception of the Engineering Process

Science.gov (United States)

Dean, Edwin B.; Wood, Darrell A.; Moore, Arlene A.; Bogart, Edward H.

1986-01-01

In most cost estimating applications at the NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC), it is desirable to present predicted cost as a range of possible costs rather than a single predicted cost. A cost risk analysis generates a range of cost for a project and assigns a probability level to each cost value in the range. Constructing a cost risk curve requires a good estimate of the expected cost of a project. It must also include a good estimate of expected variance of the cost. Many cost risk analyses are based upon an expert's knowledge of the cost of similar projects in the past. In a common scenario, a manager or engineer, asked to estimate the cost of a project in his area of expertise, will gather historical cost data from a similar completed project. The cost of the completed project is adjusted using the perceived technical and economic differences between the two projects. This allows errors from at least three sources. The historical cost data may be in error by some unknown amount. The managers' evaluation of the new project and its similarity to the old project may be in error. The factors used to adjust the cost of the old project may not correctly reflect the differences. Some risk analyses are based on untested hypotheses about the form of the statistical distribution that underlies the distribution of possible cost. The usual problem is not just to come up with an estimate of the cost of a project, but to predict the range of values into which the cost may fall and with what level of confidence the prediction is made. Risk analysis techniques that assume the shape of the underlying cost distribution and derive the risk curve from a single estimate plus and minus some amount usually fail to take into account the actual magnitude of the uncertainty in cost due to technical factors in the project itself. This paper addresses a cost risk method that is based on parametric estimates of the technical factors involved in the project being costed. The engineering

76 FR 1889 - Risk-Based Capital Guidelines: Market Risk

Science.gov (United States)

2011-01-11

... ``three-pillar'' framework that includes (i) risk-based capital requirements for credit risk, market risk... incremental risk capital requirement to capture default and credit quality migration risk for non... (advanced approaches rules) (collectively, the credit risk capital rules) \\8\\ by requiring any bank subject...

Validation of risk-based performance indicators: Safety system function trends

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boccio, J.L.; Vesely, W.E.; Azarm, M.A.; Carbonaro, J.F.; Usher, J.L.; Oden, N.

1989-10-01

This report describes and applies a process for validating a model for a risk-based performance indicator. The purpose of the risk-based indicator evaluated, Safety System Function Trend (SSFT), is to monitor the unavailability of selected safety systems. Interim validation of this indicator is based on three aspects: a theoretical basis, an empirical basis relying on statistical correlations, and case studies employing 25 plant years of historical data collected from five plants for a number of safety systems. Results using the SSFT model are encouraging. Application of the model through case studies dealing with the performance of important safety systems shows that statistically significant trends in, and levels of, system performance can be discerned which thereby can provide leading indications of degrading and/or improving performances. Methods for developing system performance tolerance bounds are discussed and applied to aid in the interpretation of the trends in this risk-based indicator. Some additional characteristics of the SSFT indicator, learned through the data-collection efforts and subsequent data analyses performed, are also discussed. The usefulness and practicality of other data sources for validation purposes are explored. Further validation of this indicator is noted. Also, additional research is underway in developing a more detailed estimator of system unavailability. 9 refs., 18 figs., 5 tabs

Risk based test interval and maintenance optimisation - Application and uses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sparre, E.

1999-10-01

The project is part of an IAEA co-ordinated Research Project (CRP) on 'Development of Methodologies for Optimisation of Surveillance Testing and Maintenance of Safety Related Equipment at NPPs'. The purpose of the project is to investigate the sensitivity of the results obtained when performing risk based optimisation of the technical specifications. Previous projects have shown that complete LPSA models can be created and that these models allow optimisation of technical specifications. However, these optimisations did not include any in depth check of the result sensitivity with regards to methods, model completeness etc. Four different test intervals have been investigated in this study. Aside from an original, nominal, optimisation a set of sensitivity analyses has been performed and the results from these analyses have been compared to the original optimisation. The analyses indicate that the result of an optimisation is rather stable. However, it is not possible to draw any certain conclusions without performing a number of sensitivity analyses. Significant differences in the optimisation result were discovered when analysing an alternative configuration. Also deterministic uncertainties seem to affect the result of an optimisation largely. The sensitivity of failure data uncertainties is important to investigate in detail since the methodology is based on the assumption that the unavailability of a component is dependent on the length of the test interval

RiskREP: Risk-Based Security Requirements Elicitation and Prioritization

OpenAIRE

Herrmann, Andrea; Morali, A.; Etalle, Sandro; Wieringa, Roelf J.; Niedrite, Laila; Strazdina, Renate; Wangler, Benkt

2011-01-01

Companies are under pressure to be in control of their assets but at the same time they must operate as efficiently as possible. This means that they aim to implement “good-enough security‿ but need to be able to justify their security investment plans. In this paper, we present a Risk-Based Requirements Prioritization method (RiskREP) that extends misuse case-based methods with IT architecture based risk assessment and countermeasure definition and prioritization. Countermeasure prioritizati...

Cancer risks, risk-cost-benefit analyses, and the scientific method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Seiler, F.A.; Alvarez, J.L.

1995-01-01

Two main changes in risk analysis are increasingly beginning to influence the manner in which, in the perception of scientists, low-dose modeling of radiation carcinogenesis is supposed to be done. In the past, efforts to model radiation risks have been carried out under the banner of scientific endeavors. On closer inspection, however, it has become obvious that these efforts were not guided by the scientific method and that a change in approach is needed. We realize increasingly that risk analysis is not done in a vacuum and that any action taken due to the result of the analysis not only has a benefit in the form of a risk reduction but leads inevitably to an increase in cost and an increase in the risks of persons effecting the benefit. Thus, a risk-cost-benefit analysis should be done and show a clear-cut net benefit before a remedial action is taken

Meta-Analyses of Human Cell-Based Cardiac Regeneration Therapies

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gyöngyösi, Mariann; Wojakowski, Wojciech; Navarese, Eliano P

2016-01-01

In contrast to multiple publication-based meta-analyses involving clinical cardiac regeneration therapy in patients with recent myocardial infarction, a recently published meta-analysis based on individual patient data reported no effect of cell therapy on left ventricular function or clinical...

12 CFR 567.6 - Risk-based capital credit risk-weight categories.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 12 Banks and Banking 5 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk-based capital credit risk-weight... CAPITAL Regulatory Capital Requirements § 567.6 Risk-based capital credit risk-weight categories. (a) Risk...)(2) of this section), plus risk-weighted recourse obligations, direct credit substitutes, and certain...

Seismic fragility analyses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kostov, Marin

2000-01-01

In the last two decades there is increasing number of probabilistic seismic risk assessments performed. The basic ideas of the procedure for performing a Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA) of critical structures (NUREG/CR-2300, 1983) could be used also for normal industrial and residential buildings, dams or other structures. The general formulation of the risk assessment procedure applied in this investigation is presented in Franzini, et al., 1984. The probability of failure of a structure for an expected lifetime (for example 50 years) can be obtained from the annual frequency of failure, β E determined by the relation: β E ∫[d[β(x)]/dx]P(flx)dx. β(x) is the annual frequency of exceedance of load level x (for example, the variable x may be peak ground acceleration), P(fI x) is the conditional probability of structure failure at a given seismic load level x. The problem leads to the assessment of the seismic hazard β(x) and the fragility P(fl x). The seismic hazard curves are obtained by the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. The fragility curves are obtained after the response of the structure is defined as probabilistic and its capacity and the associated uncertainties are assessed. Finally the fragility curves are combined with the seismic loading to estimate the frequency of failure for each critical scenario. The frequency of failure due to seismic event is presented by the scenario with the highest frequency. The tools usually applied for probabilistic safety analyses of critical structures could relatively easily be adopted to ordinary structures. The key problems are the seismic hazard definitions and the fragility analyses. The fragility could be derived either based on scaling procedures or on the base of generation. Both approaches have been presented in the paper. After the seismic risk (in terms of failure probability) is assessed there are several approaches for risk reduction. Generally the methods could be classified in two groups. The

Physics-Based Fragment Acceleration Modeling for Pressurized Tank Burst Risk Assessments

Science.gov (United States)

Manning, Ted A.; Lawrence, Scott L.

2014-01-01

As part of comprehensive efforts to develop physics-based risk assessment techniques for space systems at NASA, coupled computational fluid and rigid body dynamic simulations were carried out to investigate the flow mechanisms that accelerate tank fragments in bursting pressurized vessels. Simulations of several configurations were compared to analyses based on the industry-standard Baker explosion model, and were used to formulate an improved version of the model. The standard model, which neglects an external fluid, was found to agree best with simulation results only in configurations where the internal-to-external pressure ratio is very high and fragment curvature is small. The improved model introduces terms that accommodate an external fluid and better account for variations based on circumferential fragment count. Physics-based analysis was critical in increasing the model's range of applicability. The improved tank burst model can be used to produce more accurate risk assessments of space vehicle failure modes that involve high-speed debris, such as exploding propellant tanks and bursting rocket engines.

Redefining high-risk patients with stage II colon cancer by risk index and microRNA-21: results from a population-based cohort

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, T F; Kjær-Frifeldt, S; Christensen, R D

2014-01-01

Background:The aim of the present study was to analyse the prognostic value of microRNA-21 (miRNA-21) in patients with stage II colon cancer aiming at a risk index for this group of patients.Methods:A population-based cohort of 554 patients was included. MicroRNA-21 was analysed by qPCR based...... on tumour tissue. An index was created using the coefficients obtained from a collective multiple Cox regression. The entire procedure was cross-validated (10-fold). The performance of the index was quantified by time-dependent receiver operating characteristics curves.Results:High miRNA-21 expression...... was associated with an unfavourable recurrence-free cancer-specific survival (RF-CSS), hazard ratio 1.35 (95% confidence interval, 1.03-1.76) (P=0.028). The generated RF-CSS index divided the traditional high-risk patients into subgroups with 5-year RF-CSS rates of 87% and 73%, respectively (P...

Risk-based maintenance-Techniques and applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arunraj, N.S.; Maiti, J.

2007-01-01

Plant and equipment, however well designed, will not remain safe or reliable if it is not maintained. The general objective of the maintenance process is to make use of the knowledge of failures and accidents to achieve the possible safety with the lowest possible cost. The concept of risk-based maintenance was developed to inspect the high-risk components usually with greater frequency and thoroughness and to maintain in a greater manner, to achieve tolerable risk criteria. Risk-based maintenance methodology provides a tool for maintenance planning and decision making to reduce the probability of failure of equipment and the consequences of failure. In this paper, the risk analysis and risk-based maintenance methodologies were identified and classified into suitable classes. The factors affecting the quality of risk analysis were identified and analyzed. The applications, input data and output data were studied to understand their functioning and efficiency. The review showed that there is no unique way to perform risk analysis and risk-based maintenance. The use of suitable techniques and methodologies, careful investigation during the risk analysis phase, and its detailed and structured results are necessary to make proper risk-based maintenance decisions

Analyses in support of risk-informed natural gas vehicle maintenance facility codes and standards :

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ekoto, Isaac W.; Blaylock, Myra L.; LaFleur, Angela Christine; LaChance, Jeffrey L.; Horne, Douglas B.

2014-03-01

Safety standards development for maintenance facilities of liquid and compressed gas fueled large-scale vehicles is required to ensure proper facility design and operation envelopes. Standard development organizations are utilizing risk-informed concepts to develop natural gas vehicle (NGV) codes and standards so that maintenance facilities meet acceptable risk levels. The present report summarizes Phase I work for existing NGV repair facility code requirements and highlights inconsistencies that need quantitative analysis into their effectiveness. A Hazardous and Operability study was performed to identify key scenarios of interest. Finally, scenario analyses were performed using detailed simulations and modeling to estimate the overpressure hazards from HAZOP defined scenarios. The results from Phase I will be used to identify significant risk contributors at NGV maintenance facilities, and are expected to form the basis for follow-on quantitative risk analysis work to address specific code requirements and identify effective accident prevention and mitigation strategies.

Analyser-based phase contrast image reconstruction using geometrical optics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kitchen, M J; Pavlov, K M; Siu, K K W; Menk, R H; Tromba, G; Lewis, R A

2007-01-01

Analyser-based phase contrast imaging can provide radiographs of exceptional contrast at high resolution (<100 μm), whilst quantitative phase and attenuation information can be extracted using just two images when the approximations of geometrical optics are satisfied. Analytical phase retrieval can be performed by fitting the analyser rocking curve with a symmetric Pearson type VII function. The Pearson VII function provided at least a 10% better fit to experimentally measured rocking curves than linear or Gaussian functions. A test phantom, a hollow nylon cylinder, was imaged at 20 keV using a Si(1 1 1) analyser at the ELETTRA synchrotron radiation facility. Our phase retrieval method yielded a more accurate object reconstruction than methods based on a linear fit to the rocking curve. Where reconstructions failed to map expected values, calculations of the Takagi number permitted distinction between the violation of the geometrical optics conditions and the failure of curve fitting procedures. The need for synchronized object/detector translation stages was removed by using a large, divergent beam and imaging the object in segments. Our image acquisition and reconstruction procedure enables quantitative phase retrieval for systems with a divergent source and accounts for imperfections in the analyser

Risk based surveillance for vector borne diseases

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bødker, Rene

of samples and hence early detection of outbreaks. Models for vector borne diseases in Denmark have demonstrated dramatic variation in outbreak risk during the season and between years. The Danish VetMap project aims to make these risk based surveillance estimates available on the veterinarians smart phones...... in Northern Europe. This model approach may be used as a basis for risk based surveillance. In risk based surveillance limited resources for surveillance are targeted at geographical areas most at risk and only when the risk is high. This makes risk based surveillance a cost effective alternative...... sample to a diagnostic laboratory. Risk based surveillance models may reduce this delay. An important feature of risk based surveillance models is their ability to continuously communicate the level of risk to veterinarians and hence increase awareness when risk is high. This is essential for submission...

Correlates of sexual-risk behaviors among young black MSM: implications for clinic-based counseling programs.

Science.gov (United States)

Crosby, Richard A; Mena, Leandro; Ricks, JaNelle M

2017-06-01

This study applied an 8-item index of recent sexual-risk behaviors to young Black men who have sex with men (YBMSM) and evaluated the distribution for normality. The distribution was tested for associations with possible antecedents of sexual risk. YBMSM (N = 600), aged 16-29 years, were recruited from a sexually transmitted infection clinic, located in the southern US. Men completed an extensive audio computer-assisted self-interview. Thirteen possible antecedents of sexual risk, as assessed by the index, were selected for analyses. The 8-item index formed a normal distribution with a mean of 4.77 (SD = 1.77). In adjusted analyses, not having completed education beyond high school was associated with less risk, as was having sex with females. Conversely, meeting sex partners online was associated with greater risk, as was reporting that sex partners were drunk during sex. The obtained normal distribution of sexual-risk behaviors suggests a corresponding need to "target and tailor" clinic-based counseling and prevention services for YBMSM. Avoiding sex when partners are intoxicated may be an especially valuable goal of counseling sessions.

Suicide risk in relation to level of urbanicity - a population-based linkage study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Qin, Ping

2005-01-01

from various Danish longitudinal registers. Data were analysed with conditional logistic regression. RESULTS: This study confirms that people living in more urbanized areas are at a higher risk of suicide than their counterparts in less urbanized areas. However, this excess risk is largely eliminated...... when adjusted for personal marital, income, and ethnic differences; it is even reversed when further adjusted for psychiatric status. Moreover, the impact of urbanicity on suicide risk differs significantly by sex and across age. Urban living reduces suicide risk significantly among men, especially......BACKGROUND: The extent to which the high suicide rate in urban areas is influenced by exposures to risk factors for suicide other than urbanicity remains unknown. This population-based study aims to investigate suicide risk in relation to the level of urbanicity in the context of other factors...

Risk-based consequences of extreme natural hazard processes in mountain regions - Multi-hazard analysis in Tyrol (Austria)

Science.gov (United States)

Huttenlau, Matthias; Stötter, Johann

2010-05-01

Reinsurance companies are stating a high increase in natural hazard related losses, both insured and economic losses, within the last decades on a global scale. This ongoing trend can be described as a product of the dynamic in the natural and in the anthroposphere. To analyze the potential impact of natural hazard process to a certain insurance portfolio or to the society in general, reinsurance companies or risk management consultants have developed loss models. However, those models are generally not fitting the scale dependent demand on regional scales like it is appropriate (i) for analyses on the scale of a specific province or (ii) for portfolio analyses of regional insurance companies. Moreover, the scientific basis of most of the models is not transparent documented and therefore scientific evaluations concerning the methodology concepts are not possible (black box). This is contrary to the scientific principles of transparency and traceability. Especially in mountain regions like the European Alps with their inherent (i) specific characteristic on small scales, (ii) the relative high process dynamics in general, (iii) the occurrence of gravitative mass movements which are related to high relief energy and thus only exists in mountain regions, (iv) the small proportion of the area of permanent settlement on the overall area, (v) the high value concentration in the valley floors, (vi) the exposition of important infrastructures and lifelines, and others, analyses must consider these circumstances adequately. Therefore, risk-based analyses are methodically estimating the potential consequences of hazard process on the built environment standardized with the risk components (i) hazard, (ii) elements at risk, and (iii) vulnerability. However, most research and progress have been made in the field of hazard analyses, whereas the other both components are not developed accordingly. Since these three general components are influencing factors without any

A bromine-based dichroic X-ray polarization analyser

CERN Document Server

Collins, S P; Brown, S D; Thompson, P

2001-01-01

We have demonstrated the advantages offered by dichroic X-ray polarization filters for linear polarization analysis, and describe such a device, based on a dibromoalkane/urea inclusion compound. The polarizer has been successfully tested by analysing the polarization of magnetic diffraction from holmium.

Risk factors for child maltreatment in an Australian population-based birth cohort.

Science.gov (United States)

Doidge, James C; Higgins, Daryl J; Delfabbro, Paul; Segal, Leonie

2017-02-01

Child maltreatment and other adverse childhood experiences adversely influence population health and socioeconomic outcomes. Knowledge of the risk factors for child maltreatment can be used to identify children at risk and may represent opportunities for prevention. We examined a range of possible child, parent and family risk factors for child maltreatment in a prospective 27-year population-based birth cohort of 2443 Australians. Physical abuse, sexual abuse, emotional abuse, neglect and witnessing of domestic violence were recorded retrospectively in early adulthood. Potential risk factors were collected prospectively during childhood or reported retrospectively. Associations were estimated using bivariate and multivariate logistic regressions and combined into cumulative risk scores. Higher levels of economic disadvantage, poor parental mental health and substance use, and social instability were strongly associated with increased risk of child maltreatment. Indicators of child health displayed mixed associations and infant temperament was uncorrelated to maltreatment. Some differences were observed across types of maltreatment but risk profiles were generally similar. In multivariate analyses, nine independent risk factors were identified, including some that are potentially modifiable: economic disadvantage and parental substance use problems. Risk of maltreatment increased exponentially with the number of risk factors experienced, with prevalence of maltreatment in the highest risk groups exceeding 80%. A cumulative risk score based on the independent risk factors allowed identification of individuals at very high risk of maltreatment, while a score that incorporated all significant risk and protective factors provided better identification of low-risk individuals. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Holistic stakeholder-oriented and case study-based risk analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Heisterkamp, Tobias

2013-04-01

Case studies of storm events in the Berlin conurbation demonstrate the chance of a holistic approach and its potential data sources. Data sets of population, but also data provided by insurance and transport companies, and operating data provided by fire brigades, are used. Various indicators for risk analysis are constructed to identify hot spots. These hot spots can be shortcomings or critical aspects in structure, communication, the warning chain, or even in the structure of potentially affected stakeholders or in the civil protection system itself. Due to increasing complexity of interactions and interdependencies in or between societies and nature, it is important to choose a holistic approach. For risk analyses like the storms in Berlin, it captures many important factors with their effects. For risk analyses, it is important to take potential users into concern: The analysis gets important due to its use later on. In addition to a theoretical background, a focus on the application should be set from the beginning on. To get usable results, it is helpful to complement the theoretical meta-level by a stakeholder-oriented level. An iterative investigation and combination of different layers for the risk analysis explores important influencing factors and allows a tailoring of results to different stakeholder groups. Layers are indicators, gained from data sets like losses from insurance data. Tailoring is important, because of different requirements e.g. by technical or medical assistance. Stakeholders' feedback in the iterative investigation also shows structural limitations for later applications, like special laws the fire brigades have to deal with. Additionally, using actors' perspectives offers the chance to convince practitioners of taking part in the analysis. Their participation is an essential component in applied science. They are important data suppliers, whose goodwill is needed to ensure good results. Based on their experience, they can also help

A conceptual framework for formulating a focused and cost-effective fire protection program based on analyses of risk and the dynamics of fire effects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dey, M.K.

1999-01-01

This paper proposes a conceptual framework for developing a fire protection program at nuclear power plants based on probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) of fire hazards, and modeling the dynamics of fire effects. The process for categorizing nuclear power plant fire areas based on risk is described, followed by a discussion of fire safety design methods that can be used for different areas of the plant, depending on the degree of threat to plant safety from the fire hazard. This alternative framework has the potential to make programs more cost-effective, and comprehensive, since it will allow a more systematic and broader examination of fire risk, and provide a means to distinguish between high and low risk fire contributors. (orig.)

CHANGES SDSS: the development of a Spatial Decision Support System for analysing changing hydro-meteorological risk

Science.gov (United States)

van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim; Zhang, Kaixi; Jäger, Stefan; Assmann, Andre; Kass, Steve; Andrejchenko, Vera; Olyazadeh, Roya; Berlin, Julian; Cristal, Irina

2014-05-01

Within the framework of the EU FP7 Marie Curie Project CHANGES (www.changes-itn.eu) and the EU FP7 Copernicus project INCREO (http://www.increo-fp7.eu) a spatial decision support system is under development with the aim to analyse the effect of risk reduction planning alternatives on reducing the risk now and in the future, and support decision makers in selecting the best alternatives. The Spatial Decision Support System will be composed of a number of integrated components. The Risk Assessment component allows to carry out spatial risk analysis, with different degrees of complexity, ranging from simple exposure (overlay of hazard and assets maps) to quantitative analysis (using different hazard types, temporal scenarios and vulnerability curves) resulting into risk curves. The platform does not include a component to calculate hazard maps, and existing hazard maps are used as input data for the risk component. The second component of the SDSS is a risk reduction planning component, which forms the core of the platform. This component includes the definition of risk reduction alternatives (related to disaster response planning, risk reduction measures and spatial planning) and links back to the risk assessment module to calculate the new level of risk if the measure is implemented, and a cost-benefit (or cost-effectiveness/ Spatial Multi Criteria Evaluation) component to compare the alternatives and make decision on the optimal one. The third component of the SDSS is a temporal scenario component, which allows to define future scenarios in terms of climate change, land use change and population change, and the time periods for which these scenarios will be made. The component doesn't generate these scenarios but uses input maps for the effect of the scenarios on the hazard and assets maps. The last component is a communication and visualization component, which can compare scenarios and alternatives, not only in the form of maps, but also in other forms (risk

Risk-based and deterministic regulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fischer, L.E.; Brown, N.W.

1995-07-01

Both risk-based and deterministic methods are used for regulating the nuclear industry to protect the public safety and health from undue risk. The deterministic method is one where performance standards are specified for each kind of nuclear system or facility. The deterministic performance standards address normal operations and design basis events which include transient and accident conditions. The risk-based method uses probabilistic risk assessment methods to supplement the deterministic one by (1) addressing all possible events (including those beyond the design basis events), (2) using a systematic, logical process for identifying and evaluating accidents, and (3) considering alternative means to reduce accident frequency and/or consequences. Although both deterministic and risk-based methods have been successfully applied, there is need for a better understanding of their applications and supportive roles. This paper describes the relationship between the two methods and how they are used to develop and assess regulations in the nuclear industry. Preliminary guidance is suggested for determining the need for using risk based methods to supplement deterministic ones. However, it is recommended that more detailed guidance and criteria be developed for this purpose

Coastal and river flood risk analyses for guiding economically optimal flood adaptation policies: a country-scale study for Mexico

Science.gov (United States)

Haer, Toon; Botzen, W. J. Wouter; van Roomen, Vincent; Connor, Harry; Zavala-Hidalgo, Jorge; Eilander, Dirk M.; Ward, Philip J.

2018-06-01

Many countries around the world face increasing impacts from flooding due to socio-economic development in flood-prone areas, which may be enhanced in intensity and frequency as a result of climate change. With increasing flood risk, it is becoming more important to be able to assess the costs and benefits of adaptation strategies. To guide the design of such strategies, policy makers need tools to prioritize where adaptation is needed and how much adaptation funds are required. In this country-scale study, we show how flood risk analyses can be used in cost-benefit analyses to prioritize investments in flood adaptation strategies in Mexico under future climate scenarios. Moreover, given the often limited availability of detailed local data for such analyses, we show how state-of-the-art global data and flood risk assessment models can be applied for a detailed assessment of optimal flood-protection strategies. Our results show that especially states along the Gulf of Mexico have considerable economic benefits from investments in adaptation that limit risks from both river and coastal floods, and that increased flood-protection standards are economically beneficial for many Mexican states. We discuss the sensitivity of our results to modelling uncertainties, the transferability of our modelling approach and policy implications. This article is part of the theme issue `Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

The risk-based approach to ATMP development - generally accepted by regulators but infrequently used by companies.

Science.gov (United States)

Kooijman, M; van Meer, P J K; Gispen-de Wied, C C; Moors, E H M; Hekkert, M P; Schellekens, H

2013-11-01

Advanced therapy medicinal products (ATMPs) are the cutting edge of drug innovation. ATMPs have different challenges than other drug classes. To accommodate these challenges and facilitate science-driven development, flexibility in the requirements to demonstrate the safety and efficacy of this rapidly evolving drug class is necessary. To create flexibility, the European Union introduced the risk-based approach. This approach provides the possibility of omitting guideline-based studies based on risk analyses. To gain insight into the effect of the risk-based approach on the non-clinical development of ATMPs, two questions are addressed in this paper. Firstly, "Do companies use a risk-based approach for the non-clinical development of ATMPs?" and, secondly, "Does the Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use (CHMP) of the European Medicines Agency (EMA) accept non-clinical development programs based on the risk-based approach?" Scientific advice letters formulated by the CHMP were analyzed. The risk-based approach was used to justify deviations from the guidelines in the majority (75%) of the cases. The CHMP accepted 40% of the proposals to omit studies and stated that additional data was necessary to make an informed decision for 35% of the proposals. This indicates that the risk-based approach facilitates the science-driven development of ATMPs. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Nitrate in drinking water and colorectal cancer risk: A nationwide population-based cohort study.

Science.gov (United States)

Schullehner, Jörg; Hansen, Birgitte; Thygesen, Malene; Pedersen, Carsten B; Sigsgaard, Torben

2018-07-01

Nitrate in drinking water may increase risk of colorectal cancer due to endogenous transformation into carcinogenic N-nitroso compounds. Epidemiological studies are few and often challenged by their limited ability of estimating long-term exposure on a detailed individual level. We exploited population-based health register data, linked in time and space with longitudinal drinking water quality data, on an individual level to study the association between long-term drinking water nitrate exposure and colorectal cancer (CRC) risk. Individual nitrate exposure was calculated for 2.7 million adults based on drinking water quality analyses at public waterworks and private wells between 1978 and 2011. For the main analyses, 1.7 million individuals with highest exposure assessment quality were included. Follow-up started at age 35. We identified 5,944 incident CRC cases during 23 million person-years at risk. We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) of nitrate exposure on the risk of CRC, colon and rectal cancer. Persons exposed to the highest level of drinking water nitrate had an HR of 1.16 (95% CI: 1.08-1.25) for CRC compared with persons exposed to the lowest level. We found statistically significant increased risks at drinking water levels above 3.87 mg/L, well below the current drinking water standard of 50 mg/L. Our results add to the existing evidence suggesting increased CRC risk at drinking water nitrate concentrations below the current drinking water standard. A discussion on the adequacy of the drinking water standard in regards to chronic effects is warranted. © 2018 UICC.

LOGISTICS RISK RESEARCH OF PREFABRICATED HOUSE CONSTRUCTION ENGINEERING BASED ON CREDIBILITY METHOD

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiaoping Bai

2017-07-01

Full Text Available In recent years, the prefabricated house industry has rapid development,.Because of fewer suppliers, higher demand transport scheme and complex quality test, the risks of construction engineering logistics links are relatively high. Studying how to effectively evaluate the risks of construction engineering logistics links is significant. According to the characteristics of the prefabricated house construction engineering, we analyse the construction engineering logistics risks and use the combined weights method to determine the weight of indexes which contains both subjective and objective factors, to improve the scientific value and the validity of the assessment. Based on credibility measure method, a new logistics risk evaluation model in prefabricated housing is established to estimate the risk during making prefabricated house construction engineering. The presented model can avoid the subjectivity of selecting the membership function and solve the problem of how to comprehensively assess the construction engineering logistics risk in a certain extent.

Infective Endocarditis and Cancer Risk: A Population-Based Cohort Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Li-Min; Wu, Jung-Nan; Lin, Cheng-Li; Day, Jen-Der; Liang, Ji-An; Liou, Li-Ren; Kao, Chia-Hung

2016-03-01

This study investigated the possible relationship between endocarditis and overall and individual cancer risk among study participants in Taiwan.We used data from the National Health Insurance program of Taiwan to conduct a population-based, observational, and retrospective cohort study. The case group consisted of 14,534 patients who were diagnosed with endocarditis between January 1, 2000 and December 31, 2010. For the control group, 4 patients without endocarditis were frequency matched to each endocarditis patient according to age, sex, and index year. Competing risks regression analysis was conducted to determine the effect of endocarditis on cancer risk.A large difference was noted in Charlson comorbidity index between endocarditis and nonendocarditis patients. In patients with endocarditis, the risk for developing overall cancer was significant and 119% higher than in patients without endocarditis (adjusted subhazard ratio = 2.19, 95% confidence interval = 1.98-2.42). Regarding individual cancers, in addition to head and neck, uterus, female breast and hematological malignancies, the risks of developing colorectal cancer, and some digestive tract cancers were significantly higher. Additional analyses determined that the association of cancer with endocarditis is stronger within the 1st 5 years after endocarditis diagnosis.This population-based cohort study found that patients with endocarditis are at a higher risk for colorectal cancer and other cancers in Taiwan. The risk was even higher within the 1st 5 years after endocarditis diagnosis. It suggested that endocarditis is an early marker of colorectal cancer and other cancers. The underlying mechanisms must still be explored and may account for a shared risk factor of infection in both endocarditis and malignancy.

Redefining high-risk patients with stage II colon cancer by risk index and microRNA-21: results from a population-based cohort

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, T F; Kjær-Frifeldt, S; Christensen, R D

2014-01-01

Background:The aim of the present study was to analyse the prognostic value of microRNA-21 (miRNA-21) in patients with stage II colon cancer aiming at a risk index for this group of patients.Methods:A population-based cohort of 554 patients was included. MicroRNA-21 was analysed by qPCR based.......001). The overall survival (OS) index identified three different subgroups (Pcolon cancer. Furthermore...... on tumour tissue. An index was created using the coefficients obtained from a collective multiple Cox regression. The entire procedure was cross-validated (10-fold). The performance of the index was quantified by time-dependent receiver operating characteristics curves.Results:High miRNA-21 expression...

Tenants at-risk-of-poverty induced by housing expenditure – exploratory analyses with EU-SILC

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Haffner, M.E.A.; Dol, C.P.; Heylen, K.

2014-01-01

Combating poverty and social exclusion is a core policy issue in the European Union (EU). The Statis-tics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) database facilitates analyses of the extent of poverty and social exclusion. One of the indicators built from the database is the at-risk-of-poverty

Increased migraine risk in osteoporosis patients: a nationwide population-based study

OpenAIRE

Wu, Chieh-Hsin; Zhang, Zi-Hao; Wu, Ming-Kung; Wang, Chiu-Huan; Lu, Ying-Yi; Lin, Chih-Lung

2016-01-01

Background Osteoporosis and migraine are both important public health problems and may have overlapping pathophysiological mechanisms. The aim of this study was to use a Taiwanese population-based dataset to assess migraine risk in osteoporosis patients. Methods The Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database was used to analyse data for 40,672 patients aged ?20?years who had been diagnosed with osteoporosis during 1996?2010. An additional 40,672 age-matched patients without osteoporos...

Risk-based methodology for USNRC inspections

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wong, S.M.; Holahan, G.M.; Chung, J.W.; Johnson, M.R.

1995-01-01

This paper describes the development and trial applications of a risk-based methodology to enhance the inspection processes for US nuclear power plants. Objectives of risk-based methods to complement prescriptive engineering approaches in US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) inspection programs are presented. Insights from time-dependent risk profiles of plant configurational from Individual Plant Evaluation (IPE) studies were integrated to develop a framework for optimizing inspection efforts in NRC regulatory initiatives. Lessons learned from NRC pilot applications of the risk-based methodology for evaluation of the effectiveness of operational risk management programs at US nuclear power plant sites are also discussed

Model-based Recursive Partitioning for Subgroup Analyses

OpenAIRE

Seibold, Heidi; Zeileis, Achim; Hothorn, Torsten

2016-01-01

The identification of patient subgroups with differential treatment effects is the first step towards individualised treatments. A current draft guideline by the EMA discusses potentials and problems in subgroup analyses and formulated challenges to the development of appropriate statistical procedures for the data-driven identification of patient subgroups. We introduce model-based recursive partitioning as a procedure for the automated detection of patient subgroups that are identifiable by...

Risk-based SMA for Cubesats

Science.gov (United States)

Leitner, Jesse

2016-01-01

This presentation conveys an approach for risk-based safety and mission assurance applied to cubesats. This presentation accompanies a NASA Goddard standard in development that provides guidance for building a mission success plan for cubesats based on the risk tolerance and resources available.

Correlates of sexual risk behaviors among young Black MSM: implications for clinic-based counseling programs

Science.gov (United States)

Crosby, Richard A.; Mena, Leandro; Ricks, JaNelle

2018-01-01

This study applied an 8-item index of recent sexual risk behaviors to young Black men who have sex with men (YBMSM) and evaluated the distribution for normality. The distribution was tested for associations with possible antecedents of sexual risk. YBMSM (N=600), ages 16–29 years, were recruited from an STI clinic, located in the Southern United States. Men completed an extensive audio-computer assisted self-interview. Thirteen possible antecedents of sexual risk, as assessed by the index, were selected for analyses. The 8-item index formed a normal distribution with a mean of 4.77 (sd=1.77). In adjusted analyses, not having completed education beyond high school was associated with less risk, as was having sex with females. Conversely, meeting sex partners online was associated with greater risk, as was reporting that sex partners were drunk during sex. The obtained normal distribution of sexual risk behaviors suggests a corresponding need to “target and tailor” clinic-based counseling and prevention services for YBMSM. Avoiding sex when partners are intoxicated may be an especially valuable goal of counseling sessions. PMID:27875903

Circulating biomarkers for predicting cardiovascular disease risk; a systematic review and comprehensive overview of meta-analyses.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Thijs C van Holten

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease is one of the major causes of death worldwide. Assessing the risk for cardiovascular disease is an important aspect in clinical decision making and setting a therapeutic strategy, and the use of serological biomarkers may improve this. Despite an overwhelming number of studies and meta-analyses on biomarkers and cardiovascular disease, there are no comprehensive studies comparing the relevance of each biomarker. We performed a systematic review of meta-analyses on levels of serological biomarkers for atherothrombosis to compare the relevance of the most commonly studied biomarkers. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Medline and Embase were screened on search terms that were related to "arterial ischemic events" and "meta-analyses". The meta-analyses were sorted by patient groups without pre-existing cardiovascular disease, with cardiovascular disease and heterogeneous groups concerning general populations, groups with and without cardiovascular disease, or miscellaneous. These were subsequently sorted by end-point for cardiovascular disease or stroke and summarized in tables. We have identified 85 relevant full text articles, with 214 meta-analyses. Markers for primary cardiovascular events include, from high to low result: C-reactive protein, fibrinogen, cholesterol, apolipoprotein B, the apolipoprotein A/apolipoprotein B ratio, high density lipoprotein, and vitamin D. Markers for secondary cardiovascular events include, from high to low result: cardiac troponins I and T, C-reactive protein, serum creatinine, and cystatin C. For primary stroke, fibrinogen and serum uric acid are strong risk markers. Limitations reside in that there is no acknowledged search strategy for prognostic studies or meta-analyses. CONCLUSIONS: For primary cardiovascular events, markers with strong predictive potential are mainly associated with lipids. For secondary cardiovascular events, markers are more associated with ischemia. Fibrinogen is a

Risk- and cost-benefit analyses of breast screening programs derived from absorbed dose measurements in the Netherlands

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zuur, C.; Broerse, J.J.

1985-01-01

Risk- and cost benefit analyses for breast screening programs are being performed, employing the risk-factors for induction of breast cancer from six extensive follow-up studies. For women of the age group above 35 years and for a risk period of 30 years after a 10-year latency period, a factor of extra cases of 20 x 10 -6 mGy -1 can be estimated. Measurements are being performed in Dutch hospitals to determine the mean absorbed tissue dose. These doses vary from 0.6 to 4.4 mGy per radiography. For a dose of 1 mGy per radiograph and yearly screening of women between 35 and 75 years, the risk of radiogenic breast cancer is about 1% of the natural incidence (85,000 per 10 6 women) in this group. A recommended frequency of screening has to be based on medical, social and financial considerations. The gain in woman years and in completely cured women is being estimated for screening with intervals of 12 instead of 24 months. The medical and social benefit is 1,520 years life-time and 69 more cases completely cured per 1,000 breast cancer patients. The financial profit of a completely cured instead of an ultimately fatal cancer can be roughly estimated at 55,000 guilders. In addition the costs per gained woman-year are about 5,000 guilders. In consequence, the extra costs of annual additional rounds of mammographic screening are balanced by the benefit. (Auth.)

A Risk-based Assessment And Management Framework For Multipollutant Air Quality

Science.gov (United States)

Frey, H. Christopher; Hubbell, Bryan

2010-01-01

The National Research Council recommended both a risk- and performance-based multipollutant approach to air quality management. Specifically, management decisions should be based on minimizing the exposure to, and risk of adverse effects from, multiple sources of air pollution and that the success of these decisions should be measured by how well they achieved this objective. We briefly describe risk analysis and its application within the current approach to air quality management. Recommendations are made as to how current practice could evolve to support a fully risk- and performance-based multipollutant air quality management system. The ability to implement a risk assessment framework in a credible and policy-relevant manner depends on the availability of component models and data which are scientifically sound and developed with an understanding of their application in integrated assessments. The same can be said about accountability assessments used to evaluate the outcomes of decisions made using such frameworks. The existing risk analysis framework, although typically applied to individual pollutants, is conceptually well suited for analyzing multipollutant management actions. Many elements of this framework, such as emissions and air quality modeling, already exist with multipollutant characteristics. However, the framework needs to be supported with information on exposure and concentration response relationships that result from multipollutant health studies. Because the causal chain that links management actions to emission reductions, air quality improvements, exposure reductions and health outcomes is parallel between prospective risk analyses and retrospective accountability assessments, both types of assessment should be placed within a single framework with common metrics and indicators where possible. Improvements in risk reductions can be obtained by adopting a multipollutant risk analysis framework within the current air quality management

Cost Analysis of Universal Screening vs. Risk Factor-Based Screening for Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Virginia R Roth

Full Text Available The literature remains conflicted regarding the most effective way to screen for MRSA. This study was designed to assess costs associated with universal versus risk factor-based screening for the reduction of nosocomial MRSA transmission.The study was conducted at The Ottawa Hospital, a large multi-centre tertiary care facility with approximately 47,000 admissions annually. From January 2006-December 2007, patients underwent risk factor-based screening for MRSA on admission. From January 2008 to August 2009 universal MRSA screening was implemented. A comparison of costs incurred during risk factor-based screening and universal screening was conducted. The model incorporated probabilities relating to the likelihood of being tested and the results of polymerase chain reaction (PCR testing with associated effects in terms of MRSA bacteremia and true positive and negative test results. Inputted costs included laboratory testing, contact precautions and infection control, private room costs, housekeeping, and length of hospital stay. Deterministic sensitivity analyses were conducted.The risk factor-based MRSA screening program screened approximately 30% of admitted patients and cost the hospital over $780 000 annually. The universal screening program screened approximately 83% of admitted patients and cost over $1.94 million dollars, representing an excess cost of $1.16 million per year. The estimated additional cost per patient screened was $17.76.This analysis demonstrated that a universal MRSA screening program was costly from a hospital perspective and was previously known to not be clinically effective at reducing MRSA transmission. These results may be useful to inform future model-based economic analyses of MRSA interventions.

Interactions between risk factors in the prediction of onset of eating disorders: Exploratory hypothesis generating analyses.

Science.gov (United States)

Stice, Eric; Desjardins, Christopher D

2018-06-01

Because no study has tested for interactions between risk factors in the prediction of future onset of each eating disorder, this exploratory study addressed this lacuna to generate hypotheses to be tested in future confirmatory studies. Data from three prevention trials that targeted young women at high risk for eating disorders due to body dissatisfaction (N = 1271; M age 18.5, SD 4.2) and collected diagnostic interview data over 3-year follow-up were combined to permit sufficient power to predict onset of anorexia nervosa (AN), bulimia nervosa (BN), binge eating disorder (BED), and purging disorder (PD) using classification tree analyses, an analytic technique uniquely suited to detecting interactions. Low BMI was the most potent predictor of AN onset, and body dissatisfaction amplified this relation. Overeating was the most potent predictor of BN onset, and positive expectancies for thinness and body dissatisfaction amplified this relation. Body dissatisfaction was the most potent predictor of BED onset, and overeating, low dieting, and thin-ideal internalization amplified this relation. Dieting was the most potent predictor of PD onset, and negative affect and positive expectancies for thinness amplified this relation. Results provided evidence of amplifying interactions between risk factors suggestive of cumulative risk processes that were distinct for each disorder; future confirmatory studies should test the interactive hypotheses generated by these analyses. If hypotheses are confirmed, results may allow interventionists to target ultra high-risk subpopulations with more intensive prevention programs that are uniquely tailored for each eating disorder, potentially improving the yield of prevention efforts. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lung cancer risk models from experimental animals

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gilbert, E.S.

1988-03-01

The objective of this paper is to present analyses of data based on methods that adequately account for time-related factors and competiting risks, and that yield results that are expressed in a form comparable to results obtained from recent analyses of epidemiological studies of humans exposed to radon and radon daughters. These epidemiological analyses have modeled the hazard, or age-specific death rates, as a function of factors such as dose and dose rate, time from exposure, and time from cessation of exposure. The starting point for many of the analyses of human data has been the constant relative risk modeling which the age-specific death rates are assumed to be a function of cumulative dose, and the risks due to exposure are assumed to be proportional to the age-specific baseline death rates. However, departures from this initial model, such as dependence of risks on age at risk and/or time from exposure, have been investigated. These analyses have frequently been based on a non-parametric model that requires minimal assumptions regarding the baseline risks and their dependence on age

HOW INTERNAL RISK - BASED AUDIT APPRAISES THE EVALUATION OF RISKS MANAGEMENT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N. Dorosh

2017-09-01

Full Text Available The article deals with the nature and function of the internal risk-based audit process approach to create patterns of risks and methods of evaluation. Deals with the relationship between the level of maturity of the risk of the company and the method of risk-based internal audit. it was emphasized that internal auditing provides an independent and objective opinion to an organization’s management as to whether its risks are being managed to acceptable levels.

Validation of the German Diabetes Risk Score within a population-based representative cohort.

Science.gov (United States)

Hartwig, S; Kuss, O; Tiller, D; Greiser, K H; Schulze, M B; Dierkes, J; Werdan, K; Haerting, J; Kluttig, A

2013-09-01

To validate the German Diabetes Risk Score within the population-based cohort of the Cardiovascular Disease - Living and Ageing in Halle (CARLA) study. The sample included 582 women and 719 men, aged 45-83 years, who did not have diabetes at baseline. The individual risk of every participant was calculated using the German Diabetes Risk Score, which was modified for 4 years of follow-up. Predicted probabilities and observed outcomes were compared using Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit tests and receiver-operator characteristic analyses. Changes in prediction power were investigated by expanding the German Diabetes Risk Score to include metabolic variables and by subgroup analyses. We found 58 cases of incident diabetes. The median 4-year probability of developing diabetes based on the German Diabetes Risk Score was 6.5%. The observed and predicted probabilities of developing diabetes were similar, although estimation was imprecise owing to the small number of cases, and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test returned a poor correlation (chi-squared = 55.3; P = 5.8*10⁻¹²). The area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.70 (95% CI 0.64-0.77), and after excluding participants ≥66 years old, the AUC increased to 0.77 (95% CI 0.70-0.84). Consideration of glycaemic diagnostic variables, in addition to self-reported diabetes, reduced the AUC to 0.65 (95% CI 0.58-0.71). A new model that included the German Diabetes Risk Score and blood glucose concentration (AUC 0.81; 95% CI 0.76-0.86) or HbA(1c) concentration (AUC 0.84; 95% CI 0.80-0.91) was found to peform better. Application of the German Diabetes Risk Score in the CARLA cohort did not reproduce the findings in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) Potsdam study, which may be explained by cohort differences and model overfit in the latter; however, a high score does provide an indication of increased risk of diabetes. © 2013 The Authors. Diabetic Medicine © 2013 Diabetes

Airway management education: simulation based training versus non-simulation based training-A systematic review and meta-analyses.

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Yanxia; Pan, Chuxiong; Li, Tianzuo; Gan, Tong J

2017-02-01

Simulation-based training (SBT) has become a standard for medical education. However, the efficacy of simulation based training in airway management education remains unclear. The aim of this study was to evaluate all published evidence comparing the effectiveness of SBT for airway management versus non-simulation based training (NSBT) on learner and patient outcomes. Systematic review with meta-analyses were used. Data were derived from PubMed, EMBASE, CINAHL, Scopus, the Cochrane Controlled Trials Register and Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews from inception to May 2016. Published comparative trials that evaluated the effect of SBT on airway management training in compared with NSBT were considered. The effect sizes with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated for outcomes measures. Seventeen eligible studies were included. SBT was associated with improved behavior performance [standardized mean difference (SMD):0.30, 95% CI: 0.06 to 0.54] in comparison with NSBT. However, the benefits of SBT were not seen in time-skill (SMD:-0.13, 95% CI: -0.82 to 0.52), written examination score (SMD: 0.39, 95% CI: -0.09 to 0.86) and success rate of procedure completion on patients [relative risk (RR): 1.26, 95% CI: 0.96 to 1.66]. SBT may be not superior to NSBT on airway management training.

Contour plot assessment of existing meta-analyses confirms robust association of statin use and acute kidney injury risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Chevance, Aurélie; Schuster, Tibor; Steele, Russell; Ternès, Nils; Platt, Robert W

2015-10-01

Robustness of an existing meta-analysis can justify decisions on whether to conduct an additional study addressing the same research question. We illustrate the graphical assessment of the potential impact of an additional study on an existing meta-analysis using published data on statin use and the risk of acute kidney injury. A previously proposed graphical augmentation approach is used to assess the sensitivity of the current test and heterogeneity statistics extracted from existing meta-analysis data. In addition, we extended the graphical augmentation approach to assess potential changes in the pooled effect estimate after updating a current meta-analysis and applied the three graphical contour definitions to data from meta-analyses on statin use and acute kidney injury risk. In the considered example data, the pooled effect estimates and heterogeneity indices demonstrated to be considerably robust to the addition of a future study. Supportingly, for some previously inconclusive meta-analyses, a study update might yield statistically significant kidney injury risk increase associated with higher statin exposure. The illustrated contour approach should become a standard tool for the assessment of the robustness of meta-analyses. It can guide decisions on whether to conduct additional studies addressing a relevant research question. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

RISK LOAN PORTFOLIO OPTIMIZATION MODEL BASED ON CVAR RISK MEASURE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ming-Chang LEE

2015-07-01

Full Text Available In order to achieve commercial banks liquidity, safety and profitability objective requirements, loan portfolio risk analysis based optimization decisions are rational allocation of assets.  The risk analysis and asset allocation are the key technology of banking and risk management.  The aim of this paper, build a loan portfolio optimization model based on risk analysis.  Loan portfolio rate of return by using Value-at-Risk (VaR and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR constraint optimization decision model reflects the bank's risk tolerance, and the potential loss of direct control of the bank.  In this paper, it analyze a general risk management model applied to portfolio problems with VaR and CVaR risk measures by using Using the Lagrangian Algorithm.  This paper solves the highly difficult problem by matrix operation method.  Therefore, the combination of this paper is easy understanding the portfolio problems with VaR and CVaR risk model is a hyperbola in mean-standard deviation space.  It is easy calculation in proposed method.

Establishment of Risk based microbiological criteria in the Nordic countries: A case study on Campylobacter in broiler meat

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nauta, Maarten

Microbiological criteria (MCs) offer a practical tool for food safety control and they are currently under discussion internationally. To meet the present scientific standards, there is an increasing demand for so- called “risk based” microbiological criteria that are based on risk assessment....... In this project we studied the potentials for setting risk based microbiological criteria on Campylobacter in chicken meat by studying the potential impact that specific microbiological criteria would have in different Nordic countries. This is done on the basis of different data sets that have been collected...... based microbiological criteria, the “case-by-case” risk assessment methodology is used (Christensen et al 2013) and its impact is analysed on the basis of the same data sets. In both approaches the same risk assessment model for Campylobacter in broiler meat is used. The difference between...

Risk-based inspection of nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Masopust, R.

1995-01-01

A multidiscipline research programme was developed in the USA to establish risk-based inspections for NPP structures and equipment components. Based on this US research effort, the risk-based procedure for developing inspection guidelines for NPPs is described. The procedure includes the definition of systems, qualitative risk assessment, qualitative risk analysis and development of the inspection programme. The method, when adopted and modified, is recommended also for risk-based inspections of structures and equipment of WWER-type NPPs. A pilot application of the method to unit 1 of the Surry NPP is summarized. (Z.S.) 1 tab., 1 fig., 5 refs

Risk-based remediation: Approach and application

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Frishmuth, R.A.; Benson, L.A.

1995-01-01

The principle objective of remedial actions is to protect human health and the environment. Risk assessments are the only defensible tools available to demonstrate to the regulatory community and public that this objective can be achieved. Understanding the actual risks posed by site-related contamination is crucial to designing cost-effective remedial strategies. All to often remedial actions are overdesigned, resulting in little to no increase in risk reduction while increasing project cost. Risk-based remedial actions have recently been embraced by federal and state regulators, industry, government, the scientific community, and the public as a mechanism to implement rapid and cost-effective remedial actions. Emphasizing risk reduction, rather than adherence to ambiguous and generic standards, ensures that only remedial actions required to protect human health and the environment at a particular site are implemented. Two sites are presented as case studies on how risk-based approaches are being used to remediate two petroleum hydrocarbon contaminated sites. The sites are located at two US Air Force Bases, Wurtsmith Air Force Base (AFB) in Oscoda, Michigan and Malmstrom AFB in Great Falls, Montana

Developing points-based risk-scoring systems in the presence of competing risks.

Science.gov (United States)

Austin, Peter C; Lee, Douglas S; D'Agostino, Ralph B; Fine, Jason P

2016-09-30

Predicting the occurrence of an adverse event over time is an important issue in clinical medicine. Clinical prediction models and associated points-based risk-scoring systems are popular statistical methods for summarizing the relationship between a multivariable set of patient risk factors and the risk of the occurrence of an adverse event. Points-based risk-scoring systems are popular amongst physicians as they permit a rapid assessment of patient risk without the use of computers or other electronic devices. The use of such points-based risk-scoring systems facilitates evidence-based clinical decision making. There is a growing interest in cause-specific mortality and in non-fatal outcomes. However, when considering these types of outcomes, one must account for competing risks whose occurrence precludes the occurrence of the event of interest. We describe how points-based risk-scoring systems can be developed in the presence of competing events. We illustrate the application of these methods by developing risk-scoring systems for predicting cardiovascular mortality in patients hospitalized with acute myocardial infarction. Code in the R statistical programming language is provided for the implementation of the described methods. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Risk of leukemia among survivors of testicular cancer: a population-based study of 42,722 patients

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Howard, R.; Gilbert, E.; Lynch, C.F.

2008-01-01

PURPOSE: The aim of this study is to quantify excess absolute risk (EAR) and excess relative risk (ERR) of secondary leukemia among a large population-based group of testicular cancer survivors. METHODS: We identified 42,722 1-year survivors of testicular cancer within 14 population-based cancer...... registries in Europe and North America (1943-2002). Poisson regression analysis was used to model EAR (per 100,000 person-years [PY]) and ERR of secondary leukemia. Cumulative risks were calculated using a competing risk model. RESULTS: Secondary leukemia developed in 89 patients (EAR = 10.8 per 100,000 PY......, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 7.6-14.6; ERR = 1.6, 95%CI = 1.0-2.2). Statistically significantly elevated risks were observed for acute myeloid leukemia (AML) (EAR = 7.2, 95%CI = 4.7-10.2) and acute lymphoblastic leukemia (EAR = 1.3, 95%CI = 0.4-2.8). In multivariate analyses, AML risk was higher...

Methodology of using CFD-based risk assessment in road tunnels

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vidmar Peter

2007-01-01

Full Text Available The definition of the deterministic approach in the safety analyses comes from the need to understand the conditions that come out during the fire accident in a road tunnel. The key factor of the tunnel operations during the fire is the ventilation, which during the initial fazes of the fire, impact strongly on the evacuation of people and latter on the access of the intervention units in the tunnel. The paper presents the use of the computational fluid dynamics model in the tunnel safety assessment process. The model is validated by comparing data with experimental and quantifying the differences. The set-up of the initial and boundary conditions and the requirement for grid density found during the validation tests is used to prepare three kind of fire scenarios 20 MW, 50 MW, and 100 MW, with different ventilation conditions; natural, semi transverse, full transverse, and longitudinal ventilation. The observed variables, soot density and temperature, are presented in minutes time steps trough the entire tunnel length. Comparing the obtained data in a table, allows the analyses of the ventilation conditions for different heat releases from fires. The second step is to add additional criteria of human behaviour inside the tunnel (evacuation and human resistance to the elevated gas concentrations and temperature. What comes out is a fully deterministic risk matrix that is based on the calculated data where the risk is ranged on five levels, from the lowest to a very danger level. The deterministic risk matrix represents the alternative to a probabilistic safety assessment methodology, where the fire risk is represented in detail as well as the computational fluid dynamics model results are physically correct. .

In service monitoring based on fatigue analyses, possibilities and limitations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dittmar, S.; Binder, F.

2004-01-01

German LWR reactors are equipped with monitoring systems which are to enable a comparison of real transients with load case catalogues and fatigue catalogues for fatigue analyses. The information accuracy depends on the accuracy of measurements, on the consideration of parameters influencing fatigue (medium, component surface, component size, etc.), and on the accuracy of the load analyses. The contribution attempts a critical evaluation, also inview of the fact that real fatigue damage often are impossible to quantify on the basis of fatigue analyses at a later stage. The effects of the consideration or non-consideration of various influencing factors are discussed, as well as the consequences of the scatter of material characteristics on which the analyses are based. Possible measures to be taken in operational monitoring are derived. (orig.) [de

Smokers' increased risk for disability pension: social confounding or health-mediated effects? Gender-specific analyses of the Hordaland Health Study cohort.

Science.gov (United States)

Haukenes, Inger; Riise, Trond; Haug, Kjell; Farbu, Erlend; Maeland, John Gunnar

2013-09-01

Studies indicate that cigarette smokers have an increased risk for disability pension, presumably mediated by adverse health effects. However, smoking is also related to socioeconomic status. The current study examined the association between smoking and subsequent disability pension, and whether the association is explained by social confounding and/or health-related mediation. A subsample of 7934 men and 8488 women, aged 40-46, from the Hordaland Health Study, Norway (1997-1999), provided baseline information on smoking status, self-reported health measures and socioeconomic status. Outcome was register-based disability pension from 12 months after baseline to end of 2004. Gender stratified Cox regression analyses were used adjusted for socioeconomic status, physical activity, self-reported health and musculoskeletal pain sites. A total of 155 (2%) men and 333 (3.9%) women were granted disability pension during follow-up. The unadjusted disability risk associated with heavy smoking versus non-smoking was 1.88 (95% CI 1.23 to 2.89) among men and 3.06 (95% CI 2.23 to 4.20) among women. In multivariate analyses, adjusting for socioeconomic status, HRs were 1.33 (95% CI 0.84 to 2.11) among men and 2.22 (95% CI 1.58 to 3.13) among women. Final adjustment for physical activity, self-reported health and musculoskeletal pain further reduced the effect of heavy smoking in women (HR=1.53, 95% CI 1.09 to 2.16). Socioeconomic status confounded the smoking-related risk for disability pension; for female heavy smokers, however, a significant increased risk persisted after adjustment. Women may be particularly vulnerable to heavy smoking and to its sociomedical consequences, such as disability pension.

Nuclear insurance risk assessment using risk-based methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wendland, W.G.

1992-01-01

This paper presents American Nuclear Insurers' (ANI's) and Mutual Atomic Energy Liability Underwriters' (MAELU's) process and experience for conducting nuclear insurance risk assessments using a risk-based methodology. The process is primarily qualitative and uses traditional insurance risk assessment methods and an approach developed under the auspices of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) in which ANI/MAELU is an active sponsor. This process assists ANI's technical resources in identifying where to look for insurance risk in an industry in which insurance exposure tends to be dynamic and nonactuarial. The process is an evolving one that also seeks to minimize the impact on insureds while maintaining a mutually agreeable risk tolerance

13 CFR 120.1000 - Risk-Based Lender Oversight.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 13 Business Credit and Assistance 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk-Based Lender Oversight. 120.1000 Section 120.1000 Business Credit and Assistance SMALL BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION BUSINESS LOANS Risk-Based Lender Oversight Supervision § 120.1000 Risk-Based Lender Oversight. (a) Risk-Based Lender...

Biological Select Agents and Toxins: Risk-Based Assessment Management and Oversight.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Burnett, LouAnn Crawford; Brodsky, Benjamin H.

2016-12-01

Sandia National Laboratories' International Biological and Chemical Threat Reduction (SNL/IBCTR) conducted, on behalf of the Federal Select Agent Program (FSAP), a review of risk assessment in modern select agent laboratories. This review and analysis consisted of literature review, interviews of FSAP staff, entities regulated by FSAP, and deliberations of an expert panel. Additionally, SNL/IBCTR reviewed oversight mechanisms used by industries, US agencies, and other countries for high-consequence risks (e.g, nuclear, chemical, or biological materials, aviation, off-shore drilling, etc.) to determine if alternate oversight mechanisms existed that might be applicable to FSAP oversight of biological select agents and toxins. This report contains five findings, based on these reviews and analyses, with recommendations and suggested actions for FSAP to consider.

Scenario sensitivity analyses performed on the PRESTO-EPA LLW risk assessment models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bandrowski, M.S.

1988-01-01

The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is currently developing standards for the land disposal of low-level radioactive waste. As part of the standard development, EPA has performed risk assessments using the PRESTO-EPA codes. A program of sensitivity analysis was conducted on the PRESTO-EPA codes, consisting of single parameter sensitivity analysis and scenario sensitivity analysis. The results of the single parameter sensitivity analysis were discussed at the 1987 DOE LLW Management Conference. Specific scenario sensitivity analyses have been completed and evaluated. Scenario assumptions that were analyzed include: site location, disposal method, form of waste, waste volume, analysis time horizon, critical radionuclides, use of buffer zones, and global health effects

Community-Based Diabetes Screening and Risk Assessment in Rural West Virginia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ranjita Misra

2016-01-01

Full Text Available This project utilized a cross-sectional study design to assess diabetes risk among 540 individuals from 12 counties using trained extension agents and community organizations in West Virginia. Individuals were screened for diabetes using (1 the validated 7-item diabetes risk assessment survey and (2 hemoglobin A1c tests. Demographic and lifestyle behaviors were also collected. The average age, body mass index, and A1c were 51.2±16.4, 31.1±7.5, and 5.8±0.74, respectively. The majority were females, Non-Hispanic Whites with no prior diagnosis of diabetes. Screenings showed that 61.8% of participants were at high risk for diabetes. Family history of diabetes (siblings or parents, overweight or obese status, sedentary lifestyle, and older age were commonly prevalent risk factors. Higher risk scores computed from the 7-item questions correlated positively with higher A1c (r=0.221, P<0.001. In multivariate logistic regression analyses, higher diabetes risk was predicted by obesity, older age, family history of hypertension, and gestational diabetes. Females were 4 times at higher risk than males. The findings indicated that community-based screenings were an effective way to assess diabetes risk in rural West Virginia. Linking diabetes screenings with referrals to lifestyle programs for high risk individuals can help reduce the burden of diabetes in the state.

How Confident can we be in Flood Risk Assessments?

Science.gov (United States)

Merz, B.

2017-12-01

Flood risk management should be based on risk analyses quantifying the risk and its reduction for different risk reduction strategies. However, validating risk estimates by comparing model simulations with past observations is hardly possible, since the assessment typically encompasses extreme events and their impacts that have not been observed before. Hence, risk analyses are strongly based on assumptions and expert judgement. This situation opens the door for cognitive biases, such as `illusion of certainty', `overconfidence' or `recency bias'. Such biases operate specifically in complex situations with many factors involved, when uncertainty is high and events are probabilistic, or when close learning feedback loops are missing - aspects that all apply to risk analyses. This contribution discusses how confident we can be in flood risk assessments, and reflects about more rigorous approaches towards their validation.

A model-based risk management framework

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gran, Bjoern Axel; Fredriksen, Rune

2002-08-15

The ongoing research activity addresses these issues through two co-operative activities. The first is the IST funded research project CORAS, where Institutt for energiteknikk takes part as responsible for the work package for Risk Analysis. The main objective of the CORAS project is to develop a framework to support risk assessment of security critical systems. The second, called the Halden Open Dependability Demonstrator (HODD), is established in cooperation between Oestfold University College, local companies and HRP. The objective of HODD is to provide an open-source test bed for testing, teaching and learning about risk analysis methods, risk analysis tools, and fault tolerance techniques. The Inverted Pendulum Control System (IPCON), which main task is to keep a pendulum balanced and controlled, is the first system that has been established. In order to make risk assessment one need to know what a system does, or is intended to do. Furthermore, the risk assessment requires correct descriptions of the system, its context and all relevant features. A basic assumption is that a precise model of this knowledge, based on formal or semi-formal descriptions, such as UML, will facilitate a systematic risk assessment. It is also necessary to have a framework to integrate the different risk assessment methods. The experiences so far support this hypothesis. This report presents CORAS and the CORAS model-based risk management framework, including a preliminary guideline for model-based risk assessment. The CORAS framework for model-based risk analysis offers a structured and systematic approach to identify and assess security issues of ICT systems. From the initial assessment of IPCON, we also believe that the framework is applicable in a safety context. Further work on IPCON, as well as the experiences from the CORAS trials, will provide insight and feedback for further improvements. (Author)

Dietary supplement use and colorectal cancer risk: A systematic review and meta-analyses of prospective cohort studies

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Heine-Bröring, R.C.; Winkels, R.M.; Renkema, J.M.S.; Kragt, L.; Orten-Luiten, van A.C.B.; Tigchelaar, E.F.; Chan, D.S.M.; Norat, T.; Kampman, E.

2015-01-01

Use of dietary supplements is rising in countries where colorectal cancer is prevalent. We conducted a systematic literature review and meta-analyses of prospective cohort studies on dietary supplement use and colorectal cancer risk. We identified relevant studies in Medline, Embase and Cochrane up

Risk Probability Estimating Based on Clustering

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Chen, Yong; Jensen, Christian D.; Gray, Elizabeth

2003-01-01

of prior experiences, recommendations from a trusted entity or the reputation of the other entity. In this paper we propose a dynamic mechanism for estimating the risk probability of a certain interaction in a given environment using hybrid neural networks. We argue that traditional risk assessment models...... from the insurance industry do not directly apply to ubiquitous computing environments. Instead, we propose a dynamic mechanism for risk assessment, which is based on pattern matching, classification and prediction procedures. This mechanism uses an estimator of risk probability, which is based...

Flood Risk Assessment Based On Security Deficit Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Beck, J.; Metzger, R.; Hingray, B.; Musy, A.

Risk is a human perception: a given risk may be considered as acceptable or unac- ceptable depending on the group that has to face that risk. Flood risk analysis of- ten estimates economic losses from damages, but neglects the question of accept- able/unacceptable risk. With input from land use managers, politicians and other stakeholders, risk assessment based on security deficit analysis determines objects with unacceptable risk and their degree of security deficit. Such a risk assessment methodology, initially developed by the Swiss federal authorities, is illustrated by its application on a reach of the Alzette River (Luxembourg) in the framework of the IRMA-SPONGE FRHYMAP project. Flood risk assessment always involves a flood hazard analysis, an exposed object vulnerability analysis, and an analysis combing the results of these two previous analyses. The flood hazard analysis was done with the quasi-2D hydraulic model FldPln to produce flood intensity maps. Flood intensity was determined by the water height and velocity. Object data for the vulnerability analysis, provided by the Luxembourg government, were classified according to their potential damage. Potential damage is expressed in terms of direct, human life and secondary losses. A thematic map was produced to show the object classification. Protection goals were then attributed to the object classes. Protection goals are assigned in terms of an acceptable flood intensity for a certain flood frequency. This is where input from land use managers and politicians comes into play. The perception of risk in the re- gion or country influences the protection goal assignment. Protection goals as used in Switzerland were used in this project. Thematic maps showing the protection goals of each object in the case study area for a given flood frequency were produced. Com- parison between an object's protection goal and the intensity of the flood that touched the object determine the acceptability of the risk and the

Impact of shutdown risk on risk-based assessment of technical specifications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Deriot, S.

1992-10-01

This paper describes the current work performed by the Research and Development Division of EDF concerning risk-based assessment of Operating Technical Specifications (OTS). The current risk-based assessment of OTS at EDF is presented. Then, the level 1 Probabilistic Safety Assessment of unit 3 of the Paluel nuclear power station (called PSA 1300) is described. It is fully computerized and takes into account the risk in shutdown states. A case study is presented. It shows that the fact of considering shutdown risk suggests that the current OTS should be modified

Effects of parenting interventions for at-risk parents with infants: a systematic review and meta-analyses.

Science.gov (United States)

Rayce, Signe B; Rasmussen, Ida S; Klest, Sihu K; Patras, Joshua; Pontoppidan, Maiken

2017-12-27

Infancy is a critical stage of life, and a secure relationship with caring and responsive caregivers is crucial for healthy infant development. Early parenting interventions aim to support families in which infants are at risk of developmental harm. Our objective is to systematically review the effects of parenting interventions on child development and on parent-child relationship for at-risk families with infants aged 0-12 months. This is a systematic review and meta-analyses. We extracted publications from 10 databases in June 2013, January 2015 and June 2016, and supplemented with grey literature and hand search. We assessed risk of bias, calculated effect sizes and conducted meta-analyses. (1) Randomised controlled trials of structured psychosocial interventions offered to at-risk families with infants aged 0-12 months in Western Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries, (2) interventions with a minimum of three sessions and at least half of these delivered postnatally and (3) outcomes reported for child development or parent-child relationship. Sixteen studies were included. Meta-analyses were conducted on seven outcomes represented in 13 studies. Parenting interventions significantly improved child behaviour ( d =0.14; 95% CI 0.03 to 0.26), parent-child relationship ( d =0.44; 95% CI 0.09 to 0.80) and maternal sensitivity ( d =0.46; 95% CI 0.26 to 0.65) postintervention. There were no significant effects on cognitive development ( d= 0.13; 95% CI -0.08 to 0.41), internalising behaviour ( d= 0.16; 95% CI -0.03 to 0.33) or externalising behaviour ( d= 0.16; 95% CI -0.01 to 0.30) post-intervention. At long-term follow-up we found no significant effect on child behaviour ( d= 0.15; 95% CI -0.03 to 0.31). Interventions offered to at-risk families in the first year of the child's life appear to improve child behaviour, parent-child relationship and maternal sensitivity post-intervention, but not child cognitive

Risk-based decisionmaking (Panel)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Smith, T.H.

1995-12-31

By means of a panel discussion and extensive audience interaction, explore the current challenges and progress to date in applying risk considerations to decisionmaking related to low-level waste. This topic is especially timely because of the proposed legislation pertaining to risk-based decisionmaking and because of the increased emphasis placed on radiological performance assessments of low-level waste disposal.

The role of risk-based prioritization in total quality management

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bennett, C.T.

1994-10-01

The climate in which government managers must make decisions grows more complex and uncertain. All stakeholders - the public, industry, and Congress - are demanding greater consciousness, responsibility, and accountability of programs and their budgets. Yet, managerial decisions have become multifaceted, involve greater risk, and operate over much longer time periods. Over the last four or five decades, as policy analysis and decisions became more complex, scientists from psychology, operations research, systems science, and economics have developed a more or less coherent process called decision analysis to aid program management. The process of decision analysis - a systems theoretic approach - provides the backdrop for this paper. The Laboratory Integrated Prioritization System (LIPS) has been developed as a systems analytic and risk-based prioritization tool to aid the management of the Tri-Labs` (Lawrence Livermore, Los Alamos, and Sandia) operating resources. Preliminary analyses of the effects of LIPS has confirmed the practical benefits of decision and systems sciences - the systematic, quantitative reduction in uncertainty. To date, the use of LIPS - and, hence, its value - has been restricted to resource allocation within the Tri-Labs` operations budgets. This report extends the role of risk-based prioritization to the support of DOE Total Quality Management (TQM) programs. Furthermore, this paper will argue for the requirement to institutionalize an evolutionary, decision theoretic approach to the policy analysis of the Department of Energy`s Program Budget.

Predicting Geomorphic and Hydrologic Risks after Wildfire Using Harmonic and Stochastic Analyses

Science.gov (United States)

Mikesell, J.; Kinoshita, A. M.; Florsheim, J. L.; Chin, A.; Nourbakhshbeidokhti, S.

2017-12-01

Wildfire is a landscape-scale disturbance that often alters hydrological processes and sediment flux during subsequent storms. Vegetation loss from wildfires induce changes to sediment supply such as channel erosion and sedimentation and streamflow magnitude or flooding. These changes enhance downstream hazards, threatening human populations and physical aquatic habitat over various time scales. Using Williams Canyon, a basin burned by the Waldo Canyon Fire (2012) as a case study, we utilize deterministic and statistical modeling methods (Fourier series and first order Markov chain) to assess pre- and post-fire geomorphic and hydrologic characteristics, including of precipitation, enhanced vegetation index (EVI, a satellite-based proxy of vegetation biomass), streamflow, and sediment flux. Local precipitation, terrestrial Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) scanning, and satellite-based products are used for these time series analyses. We present a framework to assess variability of periodic and nonperiodic climatic and multivariate trends to inform development of a post-wildfire risk assessment methodology. To establish the extent to which a wildfire affects hydrologic and geomorphic patterns, a Fourier series was used to fit pre- and post-fire geomorphic and hydrologic characteristics to yearly temporal cycles and subcycles of 6, 4, 3, and 2.4 months. These cycles were analyzed using least-squares estimates of the harmonic coefficients or amplitudes of each sub-cycle's contribution to fit the overall behavior of a Fourier series. The stochastic variances of these characteristics were analyzed by composing first-order Markov models and probabilistic analysis through direct likelihood estimates. Preliminary results highlight an increased dependence of monthly post-fire hydrologic characteristics on 12 and 6-month temporal cycles. This statistical and probabilistic analysis provides a basis to determine the impact of wildfires on the temporal dependence of

An in-depth assessment of a diagnosis-based risk adjustment model based on national health insurance claims: the application of the Johns Hopkins Adjusted Clinical Group case-mix system in Taiwan.

Science.gov (United States)

Chang, Hsien-Yen; Weiner, Jonathan P

2010-01-18

Diagnosis-based risk adjustment is becoming an important issue globally as a result of its implications for payment, high-risk predictive modelling and provider performance assessment. The Taiwanese National Health Insurance (NHI) programme provides universal coverage and maintains a single national computerized claims database, which enables the application of diagnosis-based risk adjustment. However, research regarding risk adjustment is limited. This study aims to examine the performance of the Adjusted Clinical Group (ACG) case-mix system using claims-based diagnosis information from the Taiwanese NHI programme. A random sample of NHI enrollees was selected. Those continuously enrolled in 2002 were included for concurrent analyses (n = 173,234), while those in both 2002 and 2003 were included for prospective analyses (n = 164,562). Health status measures derived from 2002 diagnoses were used to explain the 2002 and 2003 health expenditure. A multivariate linear regression model was adopted after comparing the performance of seven different statistical models. Split-validation was performed in order to avoid overfitting. The performance measures were adjusted R2 and mean absolute prediction error of five types of expenditure at individual level, and predictive ratio of total expenditure at group level. The more comprehensive models performed better when used for explaining resource utilization. Adjusted R2 of total expenditure in concurrent/prospective analyses were 4.2%/4.4% in the demographic model, 15%/10% in the ACGs or ADGs (Aggregated Diagnosis Group) model, and 40%/22% in the models containing EDCs (Expanded Diagnosis Cluster). When predicting expenditure for groups based on expenditure quintiles, all models underpredicted the highest expenditure group and overpredicted the four other groups. For groups based on morbidity burden, the ACGs model had the best performance overall. Given the widespread availability of claims data and the superior explanatory

Burden of typhoid fever in low-income and middle-income countries: a systematic, literature-based update with risk-factor adjustment.

Science.gov (United States)

Mogasale, Vittal; Maskery, Brian; Ochiai, R Leon; Lee, Jung Seok; Mogasale, Vijayalaxmi V; Ramani, Enusa; Kim, Young Eun; Park, Jin Kyung; Wierzba, Thomas F

2014-10-01

No access to safe water is an important risk factor for typhoid fever, yet risk-level heterogeneity is unaccounted for in previous global burden estimates. Since WHO has recommended risk-based use of typhoid polysaccharide vaccine, we revisited the burden of typhoid fever in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) after adjusting for water-related risk. We estimated the typhoid disease burden from studies done in LMICs based on blood-culture-confirmed incidence rates applied to the 2010 population, after correcting for operational issues related to surveillance, limitations of diagnostic tests, and water-related risk. We derived incidence estimates, correction factors, and mortality estimates from systematic literature reviews. We did scenario analyses for risk factors, diagnostic sensitivity, and case fatality rates, accounting for the uncertainty in these estimates and we compared them with previous disease burden estimates. The estimated number of typhoid fever cases in LMICs in 2010 after adjusting for water-related risk was 11·9 million (95% CI 9·9-14·7) cases with 129 000 (75 000-208 000) deaths. By comparison, the estimated risk-unadjusted burden was 20·6 million (17·5-24·2) cases and 223 000 (131 000-344 000) deaths. Scenario analyses indicated that the risk-factor adjustment and updated diagnostic test correction factor derived from systematic literature reviews were the drivers of differences between the current estimate and past estimates. The risk-adjusted typhoid fever burden estimate was more conservative than previous estimates. However, by distinguishing the risk differences, it will allow assessment of the effect at the population level and will facilitate cost-effectiveness calculations for risk-based vaccination strategies for future typhoid conjugate vaccine. Copyright © 2014 Mogasale et al. Open Access article distributed under the terms of CC BY-NC-SA. Published by .. All rights reserved.

Coalescent-based genome analyses resolve the early branches of the euarchontoglires.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vikas Kumar

Full Text Available Despite numerous large-scale phylogenomic studies, certain parts of the mammalian tree are extraordinarily difficult to resolve. We used the coding regions from 19 completely sequenced genomes to study the relationships within the super-clade Euarchontoglires (Primates, Rodentia, Lagomorpha, Dermoptera and Scandentia because the placement of Scandentia within this clade is controversial. The difficulty in resolving this issue is due to the short time spans between the early divergences of Euarchontoglires, which may cause incongruent gene trees. The conflict in the data can be depicted by network analyses and the contentious relationships are best reconstructed by coalescent-based analyses. This method is expected to be superior to analyses of concatenated data in reconstructing a species tree from numerous gene trees. The total concatenated dataset used to study the relationships in this group comprises 5,875 protein-coding genes (9,799,170 nucleotides from all orders except Dermoptera (flying lemurs. Reconstruction of the species tree from 1,006 gene trees using coalescent models placed Scandentia as sister group to the primates, which is in agreement with maximum likelihood analyses of concatenated nucleotide sequence data. Additionally, both analytical approaches favoured the Tarsier to be sister taxon to Anthropoidea, thus belonging to the Haplorrhine clade. When divergence times are short such as in radiations over periods of a few million years, even genome scale analyses struggle to resolve phylogenetic relationships. On these short branches processes such as incomplete lineage sorting and possibly hybridization occur and make it preferable to base phylogenomic analyses on coalescent methods.

Migraine and risk of stroke: a national population-based twin study.

Science.gov (United States)

Lantz, Maria; Sieurin, Johanna; Sjölander, Arvid; Waldenlind, Elisabet; Sjöstrand, Christina; Wirdefeldt, Karin

2017-10-01

Numerous studies have indicated an increased risk for stroke in patients with migraine, especially migraine with aura; however, many studies used self-reported migraine and only a few controlled for familial factors. We aimed to investigate migraine as a risk factor for stroke in a Swedish population-based twin cohort, and whether familial factors contribute to an increased risk. The study population included twins without prior cerebrovascular disease who answered a headache questionnaire during 1998 and 2002 for twins born 1935-58 and during 2005-06 for twins born between 1959 and 1985. Migraine with and without aura and probable migraine was defined by an algorithm mapping on to clinical diagnostic criteria according to the International Classification of Headache Disorders. Stroke diagnoses were obtained from the national patient and cause of death registers. Twins were followed longitudinally, by linkage of national registers, from date of interview until date of first stroke, death, or end of study on 31 Dec 2014. In total, 8635 twins had any migraineous headache, whereof 3553 had migraine with aura and 5082 had non-aura migraineous headache (including migraine without aura and probable migraine), and 44 769 twins had no migraine. During a mean follow-up time of 11.9 years we observed 1297 incident cases of stroke. The Cox proportional hazards model with attained age as underlying time scale was used to estimate hazard ratios with 95% confidence intervals for stroke including ischaemic and haemorrhagic subtypes related to migraine with aura, non-aura migraineous headache, and any migraineous headache. Analyses were adjusted for gender and cardiovascular risk factors. Where appropriate; within-pair analyses were performed to control for confounding by familial factors. The age- and gender-adjusted hazard ratio for stroke related to migraine with aura was 1.27 (95% confidence interval 1.00-1.62), P = 0.05, and 1.07 (95% confidence interval 0.91-1.26), P = 0

Medication use and kidney cancer risk: A population-based study.

Science.gov (United States)

Nayan, Madhur; Juurlink, David N; Austin, Peter C; Macdonald, Erin M; Finelli, Antonio; Kulkarni, Girish S; Hamilton, Robert J

2017-09-01

Exposure to commonly prescribed medications may be associated with cancer risk. However, there is limited data in kidney cancer. Furthermore, methods of classifying cumulative medication exposure in previous studies may be prone to bias. We conducted a population-based case-control study of 10,377 incident kidney cancer cases aged ≥66 years matched with 35,939 controls on age, sex, history of hypertension, comorbidity score, and geographic location. Cumulative exposure to commonly prescribed medications hypothesised to modulate cancer risk was obtained using prescription claims data. We modelled exposure in four different fashions: (1) as continuous exposures using (a) fractional polynomials (which allow for a non-linear relationship between an exposure and outcome) or (b) assuming linear relationships; and 2) as dichotomous exposures denoting (a) ≥3 years versus kidney cancer. The directions of association were relatively consistent across analyses; however, the magnitudes were sensitive to the method of analysis. When utilising fractional polynomials, increasing cumulative exposure to acetylsalicylic acid, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors, and proton-pump inhibitors was associated with significantly reduced risk of kidney cancer, while increasing exposure to antihypertensive drugs was associated with significantly increased risk. Our study provides impetus to further explore the effect of commonly prescribed medications on carcinogenesis to identify modifiable pharmacological interventions to reduce the risk of kidney cancer. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

International comparative analyses of healthcare risk management.

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Niuyun; Wang, Li; Zhou, Jun; Yuan, Qiang; Zhang, Zongjiu; Li, Youping; Liang, Minghui; Cheng, Lan; Gao, Guangming; Cui, Xiaohui

2011-02-01

Interpretation of the growing body of global literature on health care risk is compromised by a lack of common understanding and language. This series of articles aims to comprehensively compare laws and regulations, institutional management, and administration of incidence reporting systems on medical risk management in the United Kingdom, the United States, Canada, Australia, and Taiwan, so as to provide evidence and recommendations for health care risk management policy in China. We searched the official websites of the healthcare risk management agencies of the four countries and one district for laws, regulatory documents, research reports, reviews and evaluation forms concerned with healthcare risk management and assessment. Descriptive comparative analysis was performed on relevant documents. A total of 146 documents were included in this study, including 2 laws (1.4%), 17 policy documents (11.6%), 41 guidance documents (28.1%), 37 reviews (25.3%), and 49 documents giving general information (33.6%). The United States government implemented one law and one rule of patient safety management, while the United Kingdom and Australia each issued professional guidances on patient safety improvement. The four countries implemented patient safety management policy on four different levels: national, state/province, hospital, and non-governmental organization. The four countries and one district adopted four levels of patient safety management, and the administration modes can be divided into an "NGO-led mode" represented by the United States and Canada and a "government-led mode" represented by the United Kingdom, Australia, and Taiwan. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Asia Pty Ltd and Chinese Cochrane Center, West China Hospital of Sichuan University.

Genome-wide diet-gene interaction analyses for risk of colorectal cancer.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jane C Figueiredo

2014-04-01

Full Text Available Dietary factors, including meat, fruits, vegetables and fiber, are associated with colorectal cancer; however, there is limited information as to whether these dietary factors interact with genetic variants to modify risk of colorectal cancer. We tested interactions between these dietary factors and approximately 2.7 million genetic variants for colorectal cancer risk among 9,287 cases and 9,117 controls from ten studies. We used logistic regression to investigate multiplicative gene-diet interactions, as well as our recently developed Cocktail method that involves a screening step based on marginal associations and gene-diet correlations and a testing step for multiplicative interactions, while correcting for multiple testing using weighted hypothesis testing. Per quartile increment in the intake of red and processed meat were associated with statistically significant increased risks of colorectal cancer and vegetable, fruit and fiber intake with lower risks. From the case-control analysis, we detected a significant interaction between rs4143094 (10p14/near GATA3 and processed meat consumption (OR = 1.17; p = 8.7E-09, which was consistently observed across studies (p heterogeneity = 0.78. The risk of colorectal cancer associated with processed meat was increased among individuals with the rs4143094-TG and -TT genotypes (OR = 1.20 and OR = 1.39, respectively and null among those with the GG genotype (OR = 1.03. Our results identify a novel gene-diet interaction with processed meat for colorectal cancer, highlighting that diet may modify the effect of genetic variants on disease risk, which may have important implications for prevention.

Risk of Credit Cooperatives: An analysis based on the profile of the cooperated

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

José Roberto de Souza Francisco

2012-12-01

Full Text Available This work has as purpose to analyze among the credit operations, those that generate larger breach of contract risk for the cooperative, with base in the profile of the cooperated, and to identify which the strategies can be pointed to avoid possible flaws in the next credit analyses. The work was divided in three stages. The first stage refers to the National Financial System, with the objective of demonstrating as in him the Cooperatives of Credit are inserted. The second stage approaches the System of Cooperative Credit, it presents that form is structured and his/her hierarchical level. The third stage treats of the System of Risk of Credit, in the which the risk, administration and the models of credit evaluation will be analyzed. It was verified that the most appropriate models for analysis of the Cooperatives of Credit are Credit Scoring Models and Credit Bureau, us which, through statistical techniques as the analysis discriminante and regression logistics, the characteristics of considered credits of larger breach of contract risk were demonstrated. The analysis based on identifying the "worse customer", because this generates larger breach of contract risk and it influences in the financial administration. It was ended that the most relevant variables to identify the breach of contract risk were the rude monthly income and the value liberated in the credit concession, because the largest concentration of breach of contract risk.

Risk assessment of logistics outsourcing based on BP neural network

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Xiaofeng; Tian, Zi-you

The purpose of this article is to evaluate the risk of the enterprises logistics outsourcing. To get this goal, the paper first analysed he main risks existing in the logistics outsourcing, and then set up a risk evaluation index system of the logistics outsourcing; second applied BP neural network into the logistics outsourcing risk evaluation and used MATLAB to the simulation. It proved that the network error is small and has strong practicability. And this method can be used by enterprises to evaluate the risks of logistics outsourcing.

PCA-based algorithm for calibration of spectrophotometric analysers of food

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Morawski, Roman Z; Miekina, Andrzej

2013-01-01

Spectrophotometric analysers of food, being instruments for determination of the composition of food products and ingredients, are today of growing importance for food industry, as well as for food distributors and consumers. Their metrological performance significantly depends of the numerical performance of available means for spectrophotometric data processing; in particular – the means for calibration of analysers. In this paper, a new algorithm for this purpose is proposed, viz. the algorithm using principal components analysis (PCA). It is almost as efficient as PLS-based algorithms of calibration, but much simpler

Method for environmental risk analysis (MIRA) revision 2007

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2007-04-01

OLF's instruction manual for carrying out environmental risk analyses provides a united approach and a common framework for environmental risk assessments. This is based on the best information available. The manual implies standardizations of a series of parameters, input data and partial analyses that are included in the environmental risk analysis. Environmental risk analyses carried out according to the MIRA method will thus be comparable between fields and between companies. In this revision an update of the text in accordance with today's practice for environmental risk analyses and prevailing regulations is emphasized. Moreover, method adjustments for especially protected beach habitats have been introduced, as well as a general method for estimating environmental risk concerning fish. Emphasis has also been put on improving environmental risk analysis' possibilities to contribute to a better management of environmental risk in the companies (ml)

Cost effectiveness of risk-based closures at UST sites

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Scruton, K.M.; Baker, J.N.

1995-01-01

Risk-based closures have been achieved at Underground Storage Tank (UST) sites throughout the country for a major transportation company. The risk-based closures were cost-effective because a streamlined risk-based approach was used instead of the generic baseline risk assessment approach. USEPA has recently provided guidance encouraging the use of risk-based methodology for achieving closure at UST sites. The risk-based approach used in achieving the site closures involved an identification of potential human and ecological receptors and exposure pathways, and a comparison of maximum onsite chemical concentrations to applicable or relevant and appropriate requirements (ARARs). The ARARs used in the evaluation included Federal and/or State Maximum Contaminant Levels (MCLs) for groundwater and risk-based screening levels for soils. If the maximum concentrations were above the screening levels, a baseline risk assessment was recommended. In several instances, however, the risk-based approach resulted in a regulatory agency acceptance of a ''no further action'' alternative at UST sites which did not pose a significant threat to human health and the environment. The cost of the streamlined risk-based approach is approximately $3,500, while a baseline risk assessment for the same UST site could cost up to $10,000 or more. The use of the streamlined risk-based approach has proven to be successful for achieving a ''no further action'' outcome for the client at a reasonable cost

Risk based inspection experience from the European chemical- and petrochemical industries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kristensen, Hans; Jeppesen, Leif; Larsen, Bjarne; Kim, Na Yon

2001-01-01

As an inspection vendor with 60 years of experience and with more than 25 years of experience as manufacturer of the Automated Ultrasonic NDT systems, the P-scan systems, FORCE Institute is continuously analysing the market for NDT. This is done to assure that both the equipment product line and the service mix provided by FORCE Institute are meeting the requirements from the industry today and in the future. The concept of Risk Based Inspection Programmes were adopted early by the offshore industry and has in the recent years been adopted by many other industries as a reliable and cost efficient way of maintaining a production facility. A Risk/Reliability Based Inspection Programme is a 'living organism' that constantly needs information if it shall be of any value and NDT information is only one type of information that is required. The NDT information required is normally related to corrosion/base material information and weld integrity information. NDT as an integrated part of a plants maintenance system is, in Europe, currently influenced by the following tendencies which all are related to 'Risk Based Inspection': · Increased use of Base-Line Inspections · Reduction in the use of repeated inspections(qualitative- instead of quantitative Inspections). · Inspection results are fed directly into the plant maintenance system. · Fitness-for-Purpose acceptance criteria instead of conventional acceptance criteria. As repeatability and accuracy is a key issue for the data, automated ultrasonic inspection is increasingly used as an alternative to manual ultrasonic inspection, but due to the physical size of most automated ultrasonic inspection systems the gain in productivity has not been as significant as the gain in repeatability and accuracy. In this paper some of FORCE Institute's practical experiences with examinations carried out in connection with Risk Based Inspection is used to illustrate the above described tendencies. Not only examples using automated

Risk perception as a driver for risk management policies

Science.gov (United States)

Carmona, María; Mañez, María

2016-04-01

Risk is generally defined as the "combination of the probability of the occurrence of an event and its negative consequences" ( UNISDR, 2009). However, the perception of a risk differs among cultures regarding different features such as the context,causes, benefits or damage. Risk perception is the subjective valuation of the probability of an event happening and how concerned individuals or groups are with the consequences (Sjöberg, 2004). Our study is based on an existing framework for risk perception (Rehn and Rohrmann, 2000). We analyse the characteristics of the risk perception regarding extreme events (e.g.droughts) and how the perception of the group drives the action to manage the risk. We do this to achieve an overview of the conditions that let stakeholders join each other to improve risk management especially when governments are not reacting properly. For our research, attention is paid on risk perception of Multi-Sector Partnerships not taking into account the individual level of risk perception. We focus on those factors that make risk management effective and increase resilience. Multi-Sector Partnerships, considered as significant governance structures for risk management, might contribute to reduce vulnerability in prone areas to natural hazards and disasters. The Multi-Sector Partnerships used for our research are existing partnerships identified in the cases studies of the European project ENHANCE. We implement a survey to analyse the perception of risk in the case studies. That survey is based on the Cultural Theory (Douglas and Wildavsky, 1982)and the Protection Motivation Theory (Rogers, 1975). We analyse the results using the Qualitative-Comparative Analysis proposed by Ragin in 1987. The results show the main characteristics of a risk culture that are beneficial to manage a risk. Those characteristics are shaped by the perception of risk of the people involved in the partnership, which in turn shapes their risk management. Nevertheless, we

Risk based inspection for atmospheric storage tank

Science.gov (United States)

Nugroho, Agus; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

2016-04-01

Corrosion is an attack that occurs on a metallic material as a result of environment's reaction.Thus, it causes atmospheric storage tank's leakage, material loss, environmental pollution, equipment failure and affects the age of process equipment then finally financial damage. Corrosion risk measurement becomesa vital part of Asset Management at the plant for operating any aging asset.This paper provides six case studies dealing with high speed diesel atmospheric storage tank parts at a power plant. A summary of the basic principles and procedures of corrosion risk analysis and RBI applicable to the Process Industries were discussed prior to the study. Semi quantitative method based onAPI 58I Base-Resource Document was employed. The risk associated with corrosion on the equipment in terms of its likelihood and its consequences were discussed. The corrosion risk analysis outcome used to formulate Risk Based Inspection (RBI) method that should be a part of the atmospheric storage tank operation at the plant. RBI gives more concern to inspection resources which are mostly on `High Risk' and `Medium Risk' criteria and less on `Low Risk' shell. Risk categories of the evaluated equipment were illustrated through case study analysis outcome.

A risk-based microbiological criterion that uses the relative risk as the critical limit

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Jens Kirk; Nørrung, Birgit; da Costa Alves Machado, Simone

2015-01-01

A risk-based microbiological criterion is described, that is based on the relative risk associated to the analytical result of a number of samples taken from a food lot. The acceptable limit is a specific level of risk and not a specific number of microorganisms, as in other microbiological...... criteria. The approach requires the availability of a quantitative microbiological risk assessment model to get risk estimates for food products from sampled food lots. By relating these food lot risk estimates to the mean risk estimate associated to a representative baseline data set, a relative risk...... estimate can be obtained. This relative risk estimate then can be compared with a critical value, defined by the criterion. This microbiological criterion based on a relative risk limit is particularly useful when quantitative enumeration data are available and when the prevalence of the microorganism...

Backtesting for Risk-Based Regulatory Capital

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kerkhof, F.L.J.; Melenberg, B.

2002-01-01

In this paper we present a framework for backtesting all currently popular risk measurement methods (including value-at-risk and expected shortfall) using the functional delta method.Estimation risk can be taken explicitly into account.Based on a simulation study we provide evidence that tests for

Privacy and information security risks in a technology platform for home-based chronic disease rehabilitation and education.

Science.gov (United States)

Henriksen, Eva; Burkow, Tatjana M; Johnsen, Elin; Vognild, Lars K

2013-08-09

Privacy and information security are important for all healthcare services, including home-based services. We have designed and implemented a prototype technology platform for providing home-based healthcare services. It supports a personal electronic health diary and enables secure and reliable communication and interaction with peers and healthcare personnel. The platform runs on a small computer with a dedicated remote control. It is connected to the patient's TV and to a broadband Internet. The platform has been tested with home-based rehabilitation and education programs for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and diabetes. As part of our work, a risk assessment of privacy and security aspects has been performed, to reveal actual risks and to ensure adequate information security in this technical platform. Risk assessment was performed in an iterative manner during the development process. Thus, security solutions have been incorporated into the design from an early stage instead of being included as an add-on to a nearly completed system. We have adapted existing risk management methods to our own environment, thus creating our own method. Our method conforms to ISO's standard for information security risk management. A total of approximately 50 threats and possible unwanted incidents were identified and analysed. Among the threats to the four information security aspects: confidentiality, integrity, availability, and quality; confidentiality threats were identified as most serious, with one threat given an unacceptable level of High risk. This is because health-related personal information is regarded as sensitive. Availability threats were analysed as low risk, as the aim of the home programmes is to provide education and rehabilitation services; not for use in acute situations or for continuous health monitoring. Most of the identified threats are applicable for healthcare services intended for patients or citizens in their own homes. Confidentiality

Audio-visual perception of 3D cinematography: an fMRI study using condition-based and computation-based analyses.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Akitoshi Ogawa

Full Text Available The use of naturalistic stimuli to probe sensory functions in the human brain is gaining increasing interest. Previous imaging studies examined brain activity associated with the processing of cinematographic material using both standard "condition-based" designs, as well as "computational" methods based on the extraction of time-varying features of the stimuli (e.g. motion. Here, we exploited both approaches to investigate the neural correlates of complex visual and auditory spatial signals in cinematography. In the first experiment, the participants watched a piece of a commercial movie presented in four blocked conditions: 3D vision with surround sounds (3D-Surround, 3D with monaural sound (3D-Mono, 2D-Surround, and 2D-Mono. In the second experiment, they watched two different segments of the movie both presented continuously in 3D-Surround. The blocked presentation served for standard condition-based analyses, while all datasets were submitted to computation-based analyses. The latter assessed where activity co-varied with visual disparity signals and the complexity of auditory multi-sources signals. The blocked analyses associated 3D viewing with the activation of the dorsal and lateral occipital cortex and superior parietal lobule, while the surround sounds activated the superior and middle temporal gyri (S/MTG. The computation-based analyses revealed the effects of absolute disparity in dorsal occipital and posterior parietal cortices and of disparity gradients in the posterior middle temporal gyrus plus the inferior frontal gyrus. The complexity of the surround sounds was associated with activity in specific sub-regions of S/MTG, even after accounting for changes of sound intensity. These results demonstrate that the processing of naturalistic audio-visual signals entails an extensive set of visual and auditory areas, and that computation-based analyses can track the contribution of complex spatial aspects characterizing such life

Audio-visual perception of 3D cinematography: an fMRI study using condition-based and computation-based analyses.

Science.gov (United States)

Ogawa, Akitoshi; Bordier, Cecile; Macaluso, Emiliano

2013-01-01

The use of naturalistic stimuli to probe sensory functions in the human brain is gaining increasing interest. Previous imaging studies examined brain activity associated with the processing of cinematographic material using both standard "condition-based" designs, as well as "computational" methods based on the extraction of time-varying features of the stimuli (e.g. motion). Here, we exploited both approaches to investigate the neural correlates of complex visual and auditory spatial signals in cinematography. In the first experiment, the participants watched a piece of a commercial movie presented in four blocked conditions: 3D vision with surround sounds (3D-Surround), 3D with monaural sound (3D-Mono), 2D-Surround, and 2D-Mono. In the second experiment, they watched two different segments of the movie both presented continuously in 3D-Surround. The blocked presentation served for standard condition-based analyses, while all datasets were submitted to computation-based analyses. The latter assessed where activity co-varied with visual disparity signals and the complexity of auditory multi-sources signals. The blocked analyses associated 3D viewing with the activation of the dorsal and lateral occipital cortex and superior parietal lobule, while the surround sounds activated the superior and middle temporal gyri (S/MTG). The computation-based analyses revealed the effects of absolute disparity in dorsal occipital and posterior parietal cortices and of disparity gradients in the posterior middle temporal gyrus plus the inferior frontal gyrus. The complexity of the surround sounds was associated with activity in specific sub-regions of S/MTG, even after accounting for changes of sound intensity. These results demonstrate that the processing of naturalistic audio-visual signals entails an extensive set of visual and auditory areas, and that computation-based analyses can track the contribution of complex spatial aspects characterizing such life-like stimuli.

Advanced exergy-based analyses applied to a system including LNG regasification and electricity generation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Morosuk, Tatiana; Tsatsaronis, George; Boyano, Alicia; Gantiva, Camilo [Technische Univ. Berlin (Germany)

2012-07-01

Liquefied natural gas (LNG) will contribute more in the future than in the past to the overall energy supply in the world. The paper discusses the application of advanced exergy-based analyses to a recently developed LNG-based cogeneration system. These analyses include advanced exergetic, advanced exergoeconomic, and advanced exergoenvironmental analyses in which thermodynamic inefficiencies (exergy destruction), costs, and environmental impacts have been split into avoidable and unavoidable parts. With the aid of these analyses, the potentials for improving the thermodynamic efficiency and for reducing the overall cost and the overall environmental impact are revealed. The objectives of this paper are to demonstrate (a) the potential for generating electricity while regasifying LNG and (b) some of the capabilities associated with advanced exergy-based methods. The most important subsystems and components are identified, and suggestions for improving them are made. (orig.)

Risk-based decision analysis for groundwater operable units

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chiaramonte, G.R.

1995-01-01

This document proposes a streamlined approach and methodology for performing risk assessment in support of interim remedial measure (IRM) decisions involving the remediation of contaminated groundwater on the Hanford Site. This methodology, referred to as ''risk-based decision analysis,'' also supports the specification of target cleanup volumes and provides a basis for design and operation of the groundwater remedies. The risk-based decision analysis can be completed within a short time frame and concisely documented. The risk-based decision analysis is more versatile than the qualitative risk assessment (QRA), because it not only supports the need for IRMs, but also provides criteria for defining the success of the IRMs and provides the risk-basis for decisions on final remedies. For these reasons, it is proposed that, for groundwater operable units, the risk-based decision analysis should replace the more elaborate, costly, and time-consuming QRA

Agent-based and phylogenetic analyses reveal how HIV-1 moves between risk groups: injecting drug users sustain the heterosexual epidemic in Latvia

Science.gov (United States)

Graw, Frederik; Leitner, Thomas; Ribeiro, Ruy M.

2012-01-01

Injecting drug users (IDU) are a driving force for the spread of HIV-1 in Latvia and other Baltic States, accounting for a majority of cases. However, in recent years, heterosexual cases have increased disproportionately. It is unclear how the changes in incidence patterns in Latvia can be explained, and how important IDU are for the heterosexual sub-epidemic. We introduce a novel epidemic model and use phylogenetic analyses in parallel to examine the spread of HIV-1 in Latvia between 1987 and 2010. Using a hybrid framework with a mean-field description for the susceptible population and an agent-based model for the infecteds, we track infected individuals and follow transmission histories dynamically formed during the simulation. The agent-based simulations and the phylogenetic analysis show that more than half of the heterosexual transmissions in Latvia were caused by IDU, which sustain the heterosexual epidemic. Indeed, we find that heterosexual clusters are characterized by short transmission chains with up to 63% of the chains dying out after the first introduction. In the simulations, the distribution of transmission chain sizes follows a power law distribution, which is confirmed by the phylogenetic data. Our models indicate that frequent introductions reduced the extinction probability of an autonomously spreading heterosexual HIV-1 epidemic, which now has the potential to dominate the spread of the overall epidemic in the future. Furthermore, our model shows that social heterogeneity of the susceptible population can explain the shift in HIV-1 incidence in Latvia over the course of the epidemic. Thus, the decrease in IDU incidence may be due to local heterogeneities in transmission, rather than the implementation of control measures. Increases in susceptibles, through social or geographic movement of IDU, could lead to a boost in HIV-1 infections in this risk group. Targeting individuals that bridge social groups would help prevent further spread of the

Towards risk-based drought management in the Netherlands: quantifying the welfare effects of water shortage

Science.gov (United States)

van der Vat, Marnix; Femke, Schasfoort; Rhee Gigi, Van; Manfred, Wienhoven; Nico, Polman; Joost, Delsman; den Hoek Paul, Van; Maat Judith, Ter; Marjolein, Mens

2016-04-01

It is widely acknowledged that drought management should move from a crisis to a risk-based approach. A risk-based approach to managing water resources requires a sound drought risk analysis, quantifying the probability and impacts of water shortage due to droughts. Impacts of droughts are for example crop yield losses, hydropower production losses, and water shortage for municipal and industrial use. Many studies analyse the balance between supply and demand, but there is little experience in translating this into economic metrics that can be used in a decision-making process on investments to reduce drought risk. We will present a drought risk analysis method for the Netherlands, with a focus on the underlying economic method to quantify the welfare effects of water shortage for different water users. Both the risk-based approach as well as the economic valuation of water shortage for various water users was explored in a study for the Dutch Government. First, an historic analysis of the effects of droughts on revenues and prices in agriculture as well as on shipping and nature was carried out. Second, a drought risk analysis method was developed that combines drought hazard and drought impact analysis in a probabilistic way for various sectors. This consists of a stepwise approach, from water availability through water shortage to economic impact, for a range of drought events with a certain return period. Finally, a local case study was conducted to test the applicability of the drought risk analysis method. Through the study, experience was gained into integrating hydrological and economic analyses, which is a prerequisite for drought risk analysis. Results indicate that the risk analysis method is promising and applicable for various sectors. However, it was also found that quantification of economic impacts from droughts is time-consuming, because location- and sector-specific data is needed, which is not always readily available. Furthermore, for some

Dietary protein intake and coronary heart disease in a large community based cohort: results from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC study [corrected].

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bernhard Haring

Full Text Available Prospective data examining the relationship between dietary protein intake and incident coronary heart disease (CHD are inconclusive. Most evidence is derived from homogenous populations such as health professionals. Large community-based analyses in more diverse samples are lacking.We studied the association of protein type and major dietary protein sources and risk for incident CHD in 12,066 middle-aged adults (aged 45-64 at baseline, 1987-1989 from four U.S. communities enrolled in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC Study who were free of diabetes mellitus and cardiovascular disease at baseline. Dietary protein intake was assessed at baseline and after 6 years of follow-up by food frequency questionnaire. Our primary outcome was adjudicated coronary heart disease events or deaths with following up through December 31, 2010. Cox proportional hazard models with multivariable adjustment were used for statistical analyses.During a median follow-up of 22 years, there were 1,147 CHD events. In multivariable analyses total, animal and vegetable protein were not associated with an increased risk for CHD before or after adjustment. In food group analyses of major dietary protein sources, protein intake from red and processed meat, dairy products, fish, nuts, eggs, and legumes were not significantly associated with CHD risk. The hazard ratios [with 95% confidence intervals] for risk of CHD across quintiles of protein from poultry were 1.00 [ref], 0.83 [0.70-0.99], 0.93 [0.75-1.15], 0.88 [0.73-1.06], 0.79 [0.64-0.98], P for trend  = 0.16. Replacement analyses evaluating the association of substituting one source of dietary protein for another or of decreasing protein intake at the expense of carbohydrates or total fats did not show any statistically significant association with CHD risk.Based on a large community cohort we found no overall relationship between protein type and major dietary protein sources and risk for CHD.

Automatic incrementalization of Prolog based static analyses

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Eichberg, Michael; Kahl, Matthias; Saha, Diptikalyan

2007-01-01

Modem development environments integrate various static analyses into the build process. Analyses that analyze the whole project whenever the project changes are impractical in this context. We present an approach to automatic incrementalization of analyses that are specified as tabled logic prog...

Quantitative metagenomic analyses based on average genome size normalization

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Frank, Jeremy Alexander; Sørensen, Søren Johannes

2011-01-01

provide not just a census of the community members but direct information on metabolic capabilities and potential interactions among community members. Here we introduce a method for the quantitative characterization and comparison of microbial communities based on the normalization of metagenomic data...... marine sources using both conventional small-subunit (SSU) rRNA gene analyses and our quantitative method to calculate the proportion of genomes in each sample that are capable of a particular metabolic trait. With both environments, to determine what proportion of each community they make up and how......). These analyses demonstrate how genome proportionality compares to SSU rRNA gene relative abundance and how factors such as average genome size and SSU rRNA gene copy number affect sampling probability and therefore both types of community analysis....

Research needs for risk-informed, performance-based regulations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thadani, A.C.

1997-01-01

This article summarizes the activities of the Office of Research of the NRC, both from a historical aspect as well as it applies to the application of risk-based decision making. The office has been actively involved in problems related to understanding risks related to core accidents, to understanding the problem of aging of reactor components and materials from years of service, and toward the understanding and analysis of severe accidents. In addition new policy statements regarding the role of risk assessment in regulatory applications has given focus for the need of further work. The NRC has used risk assessment in regulatory questions in the past but in a fairly ad hoc sort of manner. The new policies will clearly require a better defined application of risk assessment, and help for people evaluating applications in judging the applicability of such applications when a component of them is based on risk-based decision making. To address this, standard review plans are being prepared to serve as guides for such questions. In addition, with regulatory decisions being allowed to be based upon risk-based decisions, it is necessary to have an adequate data base prepared, and made publically available, to support such a position

Parent-based adolescent sexual health interventions and effect on communication outcomes: a systematic review and meta-analyses.

Science.gov (United States)

Santa Maria, Diane; Markham, Christine; Bluethmann, Shirley; Mullen, Patricia Dolan

2015-03-01

Parent-based adolescent sexual health interventions aim to reduce sexual risk behaviors by bolstering parental protective behaviors. Few studies of theory use, methods, applications, delivery and outcomes of parent-based interventions have been conducted. A systematic search of databases for the period 1998-2013 identified 28 published trials of U.S. parent-based interventions to examine theory use, setting, reach, delivery mode, dose and effects on parent-child communication. Established coding schemes were used to assess use of theory and describe methods employed to achieve behavioral change; intervention effects were explored in meta-analyses. Most interventions were conducted with minority parents in group sessions or via self-paced activities; interventions averaged seven hours, and most used theory extensively. Meta-analyses found improvements in sexual health communication: Analysis of 11 controlled trials indicated a medium effect on increasing communication (Cohen's d, 0.5), and analysis of nine trials found a large effect on increasing parental comfort with communication (0.7); effects were positive regardless of delivery mode or intervention dose. Intervention participants were 68% more likely than controls to report increased communication and 75% more likely to report increased comfort. These findings point to gaps in the range of programs examined in published trials-for example, interventions for parents of sexual minority youth, programs for custodial grandparents and faith-based services. Yet they provide support for the effectiveness of parent-based interventions in improving communication. Innovative delivery approaches could extend programs' reach, and further research on sexual health outcomes would facilitate the meta-analysis of intervention effectiveness in improving adolescent sexual health behaviors. Copyright © 2015 by the Guttmacher Institute.

Collaborative development of land use change scenarios for analysing hydro-meteorological risk

Science.gov (United States)

Malek, Žiga; Glade, Thomas

2015-04-01

Simulating future land use changes remains a difficult task, due to uncontrollable and uncertain driving forces of change. Scenario development emerged as a tool to address these limitations. Scenarios offer the exploration of possible futures and environmental consequences, and enable the analysis of possible decisions. Therefore, there is increasing interest of both decision makers and researchers to apply scenarios when studying future land use changes and their consequences. The uncertainties related to generating land use change scenarios are among others defined by the accuracy of data, identification and quantification of driving forces, and the relation between expected future changes and the corresponding spatial pattern. To address the issue of data and intangible driving forces, several studies have applied collaborative, participatory techniques when developing future scenarios. The involvement of stakeholders can lead to incorporating a broader spectrum of professional values and experience. Moreover, stakeholders can help to provide missing data, improve detail, uncover mistakes, and offer alternatives. Thus, collaborative scenarios can be considered as more reliable and relevant. Collaborative scenario development has been applied to study a variety of issues in environmental sciences on different spatial and temporal scales. Still, these participatory approaches are rarely spatially explicit, making them difficult to apply when analysing changes to hydro-meteorological risk on a local scale. Spatial explicitness is needed to identify potentially critical areas of land use change, leading to locations where the risk might increase. In order to allocate collaboratively developed scenarios of land change, we combined participatory modeling with geosimulation in a multi-step scenario generation framework. We propose a framework able to develop scenarios that are plausible, can overcome data inaccessibility, address intangible and external driving forces

Risk of Debt-Based Financing in Indonesian Islamic Banking

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kharisya Ayu Effendi

2017-05-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to know the risk of debt-based financing in Islamic banking in Indonesia by using an accounting based calculation, those are NPF analysis, Credit risk Z-score and Altman Z-score. This study is telling about the risk of debt-based finacing on Indonesian Islamic banking using an accounting based measurement, those are NPF analysis, Credit Risk Z-score analysis and Altman Z-score analysis. The data was obtained from 2011 to 2015 from the website of each bank. The result is a risk on debt-based financing on Indonesian Islamic banking is low. The measurement using 3 accounting based measurement tool gives a consistent result, that is Indonesian Islamic banking use a debt-based financing have a high financial stability and a low risk.DOI: 10.15408/aiq.v9i2.4821

An in-depth assessment of a diagnosis-based risk adjustment model based on national health insurance claims: the application of the Johns Hopkins Adjusted Clinical Group case-mix system in Taiwan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Weiner Jonathan P

2010-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Diagnosis-based risk adjustment is becoming an important issue globally as a result of its implications for payment, high-risk predictive modelling and provider performance assessment. The Taiwanese National Health Insurance (NHI programme provides universal coverage and maintains a single national computerized claims database, which enables the application of diagnosis-based risk adjustment. However, research regarding risk adjustment is limited. This study aims to examine the performance of the Adjusted Clinical Group (ACG case-mix system using claims-based diagnosis information from the Taiwanese NHI programme. Methods A random sample of NHI enrollees was selected. Those continuously enrolled in 2002 were included for concurrent analyses (n = 173,234, while those in both 2002 and 2003 were included for prospective analyses (n = 164,562. Health status measures derived from 2002 diagnoses were used to explain the 2002 and 2003 health expenditure. A multivariate linear regression model was adopted after comparing the performance of seven different statistical models. Split-validation was performed in order to avoid overfitting. The performance measures were adjusted R2 and mean absolute prediction error of five types of expenditure at individual level, and predictive ratio of total expenditure at group level. Results The more comprehensive models performed better when used for explaining resource utilization. Adjusted R2 of total expenditure in concurrent/prospective analyses were 4.2%/4.4% in the demographic model, 15%/10% in the ACGs or ADGs (Aggregated Diagnosis Group model, and 40%/22% in the models containing EDCs (Expanded Diagnosis Cluster. When predicting expenditure for groups based on expenditure quintiles, all models underpredicted the highest expenditure group and overpredicted the four other groups. For groups based on morbidity burden, the ACGs model had the best performance overall. Conclusions Given the

A Server-Client-Based Graphical Development Environment for Physics Analyses (VISPA)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bretz, H-P; Erdmann, M; Fischer, R; Hinzmann, A; Klingebiel, D; Komm, M; Müller, G; Rieger, M; Steffens, J; Steggemann, J; Urban, M; Winchen, T

2012-01-01

The Visual Physics Analysis (VISPA) project provides a graphical development environment for data analysis. It addresses the typical development cycle of (re-)designing, executing, and verifying an analysis. We present the new server-client-based web application of the VISPA project to perform physics analyses via a standard internet browser. This enables individual scientists to work with a large variety of devices including touch screens, and teams of scientists to share, develop, and execute analyses on a server via the web interface.

Automatic image-based analyses using a coupled quadtree-SBFEM/SCM approach

Science.gov (United States)

Gravenkamp, Hauke; Duczek, Sascha

2017-10-01

Quadtree-based domain decomposition algorithms offer an efficient option to create meshes for automatic image-based analyses. Without introducing hanging nodes the scaled boundary finite element method (SBFEM) can directly operate on such meshes by only discretizing the edges of each subdomain. However, the convergence of a numerical method that relies on a quadtree-based geometry approximation is often suboptimal due to the inaccurate representation of the boundary. To overcome this problem a combination of the SBFEM with the spectral cell method (SCM) is proposed. The basic idea is to treat each uncut quadtree cell as an SBFEM polygon, while all cut quadtree cells are computed employing the SCM. This methodology not only reduces the required number of degrees of freedom but also avoids a two-dimensional quadrature in all uncut quadtree cells. Numerical examples including static, harmonic, modal and transient analyses of complex geometries are studied, highlighting the performance of this novel approach.

Risk and Protective Factors for Intimate Partner Violence Against Women: Systematic Review and Meta-analyses of Prospective-Longitudinal Studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Yakubovich, Alexa R; Stöckl, Heidi; Murray, Joseph; Melendez-Torres, G J; Steinert, Janina I; Glavin, Calla E Y; Humphreys, David K

2018-07-01

The estimated lifetime prevalence of physical or sexual intimate partner violence (IPV) is 30% among women worldwide. Understanding risk and protective factors is essential for designing effective prevention strategies. To quantify the associations between prospective-longitudinal risk and protective factors and IPV and identify evidence gaps. We conducted systematic searches in 16 databases including MEDLINE and PsycINFO from inception to June 2016. The study protocol is registered with PROSPERO (CRD42016039213). We included published and unpublished studies available in English that prospectively analyzed any risk or protective factor(s) for self-reported IPV victimization among women and controlled for at least 1 other variable. Three reviewers were involved in study screening. One reviewer extracted estimates of association and study characteristics from each study and 2 reviewers independently checked a random subset of extractions. We assessed study quality with the Cambridge Quality Checklists. When studies investigated the same risk or protective factor using similar measures, we computed pooled odds ratios (ORs) by using random-effects meta-analyses. We summarized heterogeneity with I 2 and τ 2 . We synthesized all estimates of association, including those not meta-analyzed, by using harvest plots to illustrate evidence gaps and trends toward negative or positive associations. Of 18 608 studies identified, 60 were included and 35 meta-analyzed. Most studies were based in the United States. The strongest evidence for modifiable risk factors for IPV against women were unplanned pregnancy (OR = 1.66; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.20, 1.31) and having parents with less than a high-school education (OR = 1.55; 95% CI = 1.10, 2.17). Being older (OR = 0.96; 95% CI = 0.93, 0.98) or married (OR = 0.93; 95% CI = 0.87, 0.99) were protective. To our knowledge, this is the first systematic, meta-analytic review of all risk and

Perception of mobile phone and base station risks.

Science.gov (United States)

Siegrist, Michael; Earle, Timothy C; Gutscher, Heinz; Keller, Carmen

2005-10-01

Perceptions of risks associated with mobile phones, base stations, and other sources of electromagnetic fields (EMF) were examined. Data from a telephone survey conducted in the German- and French-speaking parts of Switzerland are presented (N = 1,015). Participants assessed both risks and benefits associated with nine different sources of EMF. Trust in the authorities regulating these hazards was assessed as well. In addition, participants answered a set of questions related to attitudes toward EMF and toward mobile phone base stations. According to respondents' assessments, high-voltage transmission lines are the most risky source of EMF. Mobile phones and mobile phone base stations received lower risk ratings. Results showed that trust in authorities was positively associated with perceived benefits and negatively associated with perceived risks. People who use their mobile phones frequently perceived lower risks and higher benefits than people who use their mobile phones infrequently. People who believed they lived close to a base station did not significantly differ in their level of risks associated with mobile phone base stations from people who did not believe they lived close to a base station. Regarding risk regulation, a majority of participants were in favor of fixing limiting values based on the worst-case scenario. Correlations suggest that belief in paranormal phenomena is related to level of perceived risks associated with EMF. Furthermore, people who believed that most chemical substances cause cancer also worried more about EMF than people who did not believe that chemical substances are that harmful. Practical implications of the results are discussed.

Risk-based inspection--Development of guidelines

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1993-07-01

Effective inservice inspection programs can play a significant role in minimizing equipment and structural failures. Most of the current inservice inspection programs for light water reactor (LWR) nuclear power plant components are based on experience and engineers' qualitative judgment. These programs include only an implicit consideration of risk, which combines the probability of failure of a component under its operation and loading conditions and the consequences of such failure, if it occurs. This document recommends appropriate methods for establishing a risk-based inspection program for LWR nuclear power plant components. The process has been built from a general methodology (Volume 1) and has been expanded to involve five major steps: defining the system; evaluating qualitative risk assessment results; using this and information from plant probabilistic risk assessments to perform a quantitative risk analysis; selecting target failure probabilities; and developing an inspection program for components using economic decision analysis and structural reliability assessment methods

SU-F-T-243: Major Risks in Radiotherapy. A Review Based On Risk Analysis Literature

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

López-Tarjuelo, J; Guasp-Tortajada, M; Iglesias-Montenegro, N; Monasor-Denia, P [Servicio de Radiofísica y Protección Radiológica, Consorcio Hospitalario Provincial de Castellón, Castellón de la Plana, España/Spain (Spain); Bouché-Babiloni, A; Morillo-Macías, V; Ferrer-Albiach, C [Servicio de Oncología Radioterápica, Consorcio Hospitalario Provincial de Castellón, Castellón de la Plana, España/Spain (Spain)

2016-06-15

Purpose: We present a literature review of risk analyses in radiotherapy to highlight the most reported risks and facilitate the spread of this valuable information so that professionals can be aware of these major threats before performing their own studies. Methods: We considered studies with at least an estimation of the probability of occurrence of an adverse event (O) and its associated severity (S). They cover external beam radiotherapy, brachytherapy, intraoperative radiotherapy, and stereotactic techniques. We selected only the works containing a detailed ranked series of elements or failure modes and focused on the first fully reported quartile as much. Afterward, we sorted the risk elements according to a regular radiotherapy procedure so that the resulting groups were cited in several works and be ranked in this way. Results: 29 references published between 2007 and February 2016 were studied. Publication trend has been generally rising. The most employed analysis has been the Failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA). Among references, we selected 20 works listing 258 ranked risk elements. They were sorted into 31 groups appearing at least in two different works. 11 groups appeared in at least 5 references and 5 groups did it in 7 or more papers. These last sets of risks where choosing another set of images or plan for planning or treating, errors related with contours, errors in patient positioning for treatment, human mistakes when programming treatments, and planning errors. Conclusion: There is a sufficient amount and variety of references for identifying which failure modes or elements should be addressed in a radiotherapy department before attempting a specific analysis. FMEA prevailed, but other studies such as “risk matrix” or “occurrence × severity” analyses can also lead professionals’ efforts. Risk associated with human actions ranks very high; therefore, they should be automated or at least peer-reviewed.

SU-F-T-243: Major Risks in Radiotherapy. A Review Based On Risk Analysis Literature

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

López-Tarjuelo, J; Guasp-Tortajada, M; Iglesias-Montenegro, N; Monasor-Denia, P; Bouché-Babiloni, A; Morillo-Macías, V; Ferrer-Albiach, C

2016-01-01

Purpose: We present a literature review of risk analyses in radiotherapy to highlight the most reported risks and facilitate the spread of this valuable information so that professionals can be aware of these major threats before performing their own studies. Methods: We considered studies with at least an estimation of the probability of occurrence of an adverse event (O) and its associated severity (S). They cover external beam radiotherapy, brachytherapy, intraoperative radiotherapy, and stereotactic techniques. We selected only the works containing a detailed ranked series of elements or failure modes and focused on the first fully reported quartile as much. Afterward, we sorted the risk elements according to a regular radiotherapy procedure so that the resulting groups were cited in several works and be ranked in this way. Results: 29 references published between 2007 and February 2016 were studied. Publication trend has been generally rising. The most employed analysis has been the Failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA). Among references, we selected 20 works listing 258 ranked risk elements. They were sorted into 31 groups appearing at least in two different works. 11 groups appeared in at least 5 references and 5 groups did it in 7 or more papers. These last sets of risks where choosing another set of images or plan for planning or treating, errors related with contours, errors in patient positioning for treatment, human mistakes when programming treatments, and planning errors. Conclusion: There is a sufficient amount and variety of references for identifying which failure modes or elements should be addressed in a radiotherapy department before attempting a specific analysis. FMEA prevailed, but other studies such as “risk matrix” or “occurrence × severity” analyses can also lead professionals’ efforts. Risk associated with human actions ranks very high; therefore, they should be automated or at least peer-reviewed.

Heterogeneity in risk of prostate cancer: A Swedish population-based cohort study of competing risks and type 2 diabetes mellitus.

Science.gov (United States)

Häggström, Christel; Van Hemelrijck, Mieke; Garmo, Hans; Robinson, David; Stattin, Pär; Rowley, Mark; Coolen, Anthony C C; Holmberg, Lars

2018-05-09

Most previous studies of prostate cancer have not taken into account that men in the studied populations are also at risk of competing event, and that these men may have different susceptibility to prostate cancer risk. The aim of this study was to investigate heterogeneity in risk of prostate cancer, using a recently developed latent class regression method for competing risks. We further aimed to elucidate the association between type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and prostate cancer risk, and to compare the results with conventional methods for survival analysis. We analysed the risk of prostate cancer in 126,482 men from the comparison cohort of the Prostate Cancer Data base Sweden (PCBaSe) 3.0. During a mean follow-up of 6 years 6,036 men were diagnosed with prostate cancer and 22,393 men died. We detected heterogeneity in risk of prostate cancer with two distinct latent classes in the study population. The smaller class included 9% of the study population in which men had a higher risk of prostate cancer and the risk was stronger associated with class membership than any of the covariates included in the study. Moreover, we found no association between T2DM and risk of prostate cancer after removal of the effect of informative censoring due to competing risks. The recently developed latent class for competing risks method could be used to provide new insights in precision medicine with the target to classify individuals regarding different susceptibility to a particular disease, reaction to a risk factor or response to treatment. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. © 2018 UICC.

Application of REVEAL-W to risk-based configuration control

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dezfuli, H.; Meyer, J.; Modarres, M.

1994-01-01

Over the past two years, the concept of risk-based configuration control has been introduced to the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the nuclear industry. Converting much of the current, deterministically based regulation of nuclear power plants to risk-based regulation can result in lower levels of risk while relieving unnecessary burdens on power plant operators and regulatory staff. To achieve the potential benefits of risk-based configuration control, the risk models developed for nuclear power plants should be (1) flexible enough to effectively support necessary risk calculations, and (2) transparent enough to encourage their use by all parties. To address these needs, SCIENTECH, Inc., has developed the PC-based REVEAL W (formerly known as SMART). This graphic-oriented and user-friendly application software allows the user to develop transparent complex logic models based on the concept of the master plant logic diagram. The logic model is success-oriented and compact. The analytical capability built into REVEAL W is generic, so the software can support different types of risk-based evaluations, such as probabilistic safety assessment, accident sequence precursor analysis, design evaluation and configuration management. In this paper, we focus on the application of REVEAL W to support risk-based configuration control of nuclear power plants. (author)

Effects of a risk-based online mammography intervention on accuracy of perceived risk and mammography intentions.

Science.gov (United States)

Seitz, Holli H; Gibson, Laura; Skubisz, Christine; Forquer, Heather; Mello, Susan; Schapira, Marilyn M; Armstrong, Katrina; Cappella, Joseph N

2016-10-01

This experiment tested the effects of an individualized risk-based online mammography decision intervention. The intervention employs exemplification theory and the Elaboration Likelihood Model of persuasion to improve the match between breast cancer risk and mammography intentions. 2918 women ages 35-49 were stratified into two levels of 10-year breast cancer risk (<1.5%; ≥1.5%) then randomly assigned to one of eight conditions: two comparison conditions and six risk-based intervention conditions that varied according to a 2 (amount of content: brief vs. extended) x 3 (format: expository vs. untailored exemplar [example case] vs. tailored exemplar) design. Outcomes included mammography intentions and accuracy of perceived breast cancer risk. Risk-based intervention conditions improved the match between objective risk estimates and perceived risk, especially for high-numeracy women with a 10-year breast cancer risk ≤1.5%. For women with a risk≤1.5%, exemplars improved accuracy of perceived risk and all risk-based interventions increased intentions to wait until age 50 to screen. A risk-based mammography intervention improved accuracy of perceived risk and the match between objective risk estimates and mammography intentions. Interventions could be applied in online or clinical settings to help women understand risk and make mammography decisions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Use of fertility drugs and risk of ovarian cancer: Danish Population Based Cohort Study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Allan; Sharif, Heidi; Frederiksen, Kirsten

2009-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To examine the effects of fertility drugs on overall risk of ovarian cancer using data from a large cohort of infertile women. DESIGN: Population based cohort study. SETTING: Danish hospitals and private fertility clinics. PARTICIPANTS: 54,362 women with infertility problems referred...... confounding factors. RESULTS: Analyses within cohort showed no overall increased risk of ovarian cancer after any use of gonadotrophins (rate ratio 0.83, 95% confidence interval 0.50 to 1.37), clomifene (1.14, 0.79 to 1.64), human chorionic gonadotrophin (0.89, 0.62 to 1.29), or gonadotrophin releasing...... hormone (0.80, 0.42 to 1.51). Furthermore, no associations were found between all four groups of fertility drugs and number of cycles of use, length of follow-up, or parity. CONCLUSION: No convincing association was found between use of fertility drugs and risk of ovarian cancer....

Relationship between HIV risk perception and condom use: Evidence from a population-based survey in Mozambique.

Science.gov (United States)

Prata, Ndola; Morris, Leo; Mazive, Elizio; Vahidnia, Farnaz; Stehr, Mark

2006-12-01

The relationship between individuals' perception of their risk for acquiring HIV and their use of condoms is poorly understood. Understanding this relationship is crucial to the development of effective strategies to fight HIV and AIDS. Data from the Mozambique 2001 Adolescent and Young Adult Reproductive Health and Behavior Risk Survey are used to compare 15-24-year-olds' assessments of their HIV risk with assessments based on current and past sexual behavior. In bivariate and probit regression analyses, the relationship between correct risk assessment and the likelihood of condom use at last intercourse is examined. Twenty-seven percent of women and 80% of men who considered themselves to have no risk or a small risk of contracting HIV were actually at moderate or high risk. For both men and women, the prevalence of condom use at last sex was more than twice as high among those who assessed their risk correctly (30% and 16%, respectively) as among those who did not (14% and 6%). Multivariate analysis showed that correct assessment was positively associated with condom use; the association was driven by use among never-married individuals. Never-married males who assessed their risk correctly were 18% more likely than other males to report condom use; never-married females, 17% more likely than other females. Educational messages should aim at enabling individuals to correctly assess their own HIV risk and encouraging behavior change based on self-assessment of risk.

New approach for risk based inspection of H2S based Process Plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vinod, Gopika; Sharma, Pavan K.; Santosh, T.V.; Hari Prasad, M.; Vaze, K.K.

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Study looks into improving the consequence evaluation in risk based inspection. • Ways to revise the quantity factors used in qualitative approach. • New approach based on computational fluid dynamics along with probit mathematics. • Demonstrated this methodology along with a suitable case study for the said issue. - Abstract: Recent trend in risk informed and risk based approaches in life management issues have certainly put the focus on developing estimation methods for real risk. Idea of employing risk as an optimising measure for in-service inspection, termed as risk based inspection, was accepted in principle from late 80s. While applying risk based inspection, consequence of failure from each component needs to be assessed. Consequence evaluation in a Process Plant is a crucial task. It may be noted that, in general, the number of components to be considered for life management is very large and hence the consequence evaluation resulting from their failures (individually) is a laborious task. Screening of critical components is usually carried out using simplified qualitative approach, which primarily uses influence factors for categorisation. This necessitates logical formulation of influence factors and their ranges with a suitable technical basis for acceptance from regulators. This paper describes application of risk based inspection for H 2 S based Process Plant along with the approach devised for handling the influence factor related to the quantity of H 2 S released

An inventory and risk-based prioritization of Steep Creek Fans in Alberta, Canada

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Holm Kris

2016-01-01

Full Text Available In June 2013, heavy rainfall caused flooding on most rivers in the province of Alberta, Canada, producing one of Canada’s most expensive natural disasters with about $6 billion (CDN in damage. Flooding inundated several municipalities including downtown Calgary, the fourth-largest city in Canada. Debris flows and debris floods caused extensive highway closures and damages to development on alluvial fans. Following these events, the Government of Alberta requested an inventory of all fans intersecting municipal development, major roads and highways in Alberta. Such fans may be subject to debris flow, debris flood (mud flows, and/or flood hazards. The study area spans the entirety of the Alberta Rocky Mountains, approximately 51,000 km2 (7% of Alberta. We characterize 710 fans in terms of hazard level and presence and types of elements at risk. We statistically analyse watershed attributes to predict the dominant fan hydrogeomorphic process types. All fans under provincial jurisdiction are assigned priority ratings based on hazard levels and the presence and value of elements at risk. The prioritization is risk-based as it considers both hazards and potential consequences. Of the fans prioritized, 13% intersected parcels containing land and residential developments with an assessed value of $2.4 billion (CDN, and the remainder were crossed by roads, pipelines or transmission lines. We present the study results on an interactive, searchable web application that can support ongoing hazard and risk assessments and risk reduction planning.

GASVOL 18'' gas pipeline - risk based inspection study

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bjoernoey, Ola H.; Etterdal, Birger A. [Det Norske Veritas (DNV), Oslo (Norway); Guarize, Rosimar; Oliveira, Luiz F.S. [Det Norske Veritas (DNV) (Brazil); Faertes, Denise; Dias, Ricardo [TRANSPETRO - PETROBRAS Transporte S.A., Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

2003-07-01

This paper describes a risk based approach and inspection planning as part of the Pipeline Integrity Management (PIM) system for the 95.5 km long 18'' GASVOL gas pipeline in the South eastern region of Brazil transporting circa 5 000 000 m3 dry gas per day. Pipeline systems can be subject to several degradation mechanisms and inspection and monitoring are used to ensure system integrity. Modern pipeline regulations and codes are normally based on a core safety or risk philosophy. The detailed design requirements presented in design codes are practical interpretations established so as to fulfill these core objectives. A given pipeline, designed, constructed and installed according to a pipeline code is therefore the realization of a structure, which, along its whole length, meets the applicable safety objectives of that code. The main objective of Pipeline Integrity Management (PIM) is to control and document the integrity of the pipeline for its whole service life, and to do this in a cost-effective manner. DNV has a specific approach to RBI planning, starting with an initial qualitative assessment where pipelines and damage type are ranked according to risk and potential risk reduction by an inspection and then carried forward to a quantitative detailed assessment where the level of complexity and accuracy can vary based on availability of information and owner needs. Detailed assessment requires significant effort in data gathering. The findings are dependent upon the accuracy of the inspection data, and on DNV's interpretation of the pipeline reference system and simplifications in the inspection data reported. The following specific failure mechanisms were investigated: internal corrosion, external corrosion, third party interference, landslides and black powder. RBI planning, in general words, is a 'living process'. In order to optimize future inspections, it is essential that the analyses utilize the most recent information regarding

The influence of the technologically advanced evacuation models on the risk analyses during accidents in LNG terminal

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Stankovicj, Goran; Petelin, Stojan [Faculty for Maritime Studies and Transport, University of Ljubljana, Portorozh (Sierra Leone); others, and

2014-07-01

The evacuation of people located in different safety zones of an LNG terminal is a complex problem considering that the accidents involving LNG are very hazardous and post the biggest threat to the safety of the people located near the LNG leakage. The safety risk criteria define the parameters which one LNG terminal should meet in terms of safety. Those criteria also contain an evacuation as an evasive action with the objective to mitigate the influence of the LNG accident on the people at risk. Till date, not a lot of attention has been paid to technologically advanced evacuations intended for LNG terminals. Creating the technologically advanced evacuation influences directly on the decrease of the probability of fatalities P{sub f,i}, thus influencing the calculation of the individual risk as well as the societal risk which results in the positioning of the F-N curve in the acceptable part of the ALARP zone. With this paper, we aim to present the difference between the safety analyses in cases when conservative data for P{sub f,i} is being used while calculating the risk, and in cases when real data for P{sub f,i} is been used. (Author)

Bioassay-based risk assessment of complex mixtures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Donnelly, K.C.; Huebner, H.J.

1996-01-01

The baseline risk assessment often plays an integral role in various decision-making processes at Superfund sites. The present study reports on risk characterizations prepared for seven complex mixtures using biological and chemical analysis. Three of the samples (A, B, and C) were complex mixtures of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) extracted from coal tar; while four samples extracted from munitions-contaminated soil contained primarily nitroaromatic hydrocarbons. The chemical-based risk assessment ranked sample C as least toxic, while the risk associated with samples A and B was approximately equal. The microbial bioassay was in general agreement for the coal tar samples. The weighted activity of the coal tar extracts in Salmonella was 4,960 for sample C, and 162,000 and 206,000 for samples A and B, respectively. The bacterial mutagenicity of 2,4,6-trinitrotoluene contaminated soils exhibited an indirect correlation with chemical-based risk assessment. The aqueous extract of sample 004 induced 1,292 net revertants in Salmonella, while the estimated risk to ingestion and dermal adsorption was 2E-9. The data indicate that the chemical-based risk assessment accurately predicted the genotoxicity of the PAHs, while the accuracy of the risk assessment for munitions contaminated soils was limited due to the presence of metabolites of TNT degradation. The biological tests used in this research provide a valuable compliment to chemical analysis for characterizing the genotoxic risk of complex mixtures

Incentivising flood risk adaptation through risk based insurance premiums : Trade-offs between affordability and risk reduction

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hudson, Paul F.; Botzen, W.J.W.; Feyen, L.; Aerts, Jeroen C.J.H.

2016-01-01

The financial incentives offered by the risk-based pricing of insurance can stimulate policyholder adaptation to flood risk while potentially conflicting with affordability. We examine the trade-off between risk reduction and affordability in a model of public-private flood insurance in France and

12 CFR 652.70 - Risk-based capital level.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... risk-based capital level is the sum of the following amounts: (a) Credit and interest rate risk. The... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk-based capital level. 652.70 Section 652.70 Banks and Banking FARM CREDIT ADMINISTRATION FARM CREDIT SYSTEM FEDERAL AGRICULTURAL MORTGAGE...

A risk-based sensor placement methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Ronald W.; Kulesz, James J.

2008-01-01

A risk-based sensor placement methodology is proposed to solve the problem of optimal location of sensors to protect population against the exposure to, and effects of, known and/or postulated chemical, biological, and/or radiological threats. Risk is calculated as a quantitative value representing population at risk from exposure at standard exposure levels. Historical meteorological data are used to characterize weather conditions as the frequency of wind speed and direction pairs. The meteorological data drive atmospheric transport and dispersion modeling of the threats, the results of which are used to calculate risk values. Sensor locations are determined via an iterative dynamic programming algorithm whereby threats detected by sensors placed in prior iterations are removed from consideration in subsequent iterations. In addition to the risk-based placement algorithm, the proposed methodology provides a quantification of the marginal utility of each additional sensor. This is the fraction of the total risk accounted for by placement of the sensor. Thus, the criteria for halting the iterative process can be the number of sensors available, a threshold marginal utility value, and/or a minimum cumulative utility achieved with all sensors

Risk-based configuration control system: Analysis and approaches

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Samanta, P.K.; Kim, I.S.; Vesely, W.E.; Lofgren, E.V.

1989-01-01

This paper presents an evaluation of the configuration risks associated with the operation of a nuclear power plant and the approaches to control these risks using risk-based configuration control considerations. In that context, the actual and maximum potential configuration risks at a plant are analyzed and the alternative types criteria for a risk-based configuration control systems are described. The risk-based configuration calculations which are studied here focus on the core-melt frequency impacts from given plant configurations. By calculating the core-melt frequency for given configurations, the configurations which cause large core-melt frequency increases can be identified and controlled. The duration time in which the configuration can exist can then be limited or the core-melt frequency level associated with the configuration can be reduced by various actions. Furthermore, maintenances and tests can be scheduled to avoid the configurations which cause large core-melt frequency increases. Present technical specifications do not control many of these configurations which can cause large core-melt frequency increases but instead focus on many risk-unimportant allowed outage times. Hence, risk-based configuration management can be effectively used to reduce core-melt frequency associated risks at a plant and at the same time can provide flexibility in plant operation. The alternative strategies for controlling the core-melt frequency and other risk contributions include: (1) controlling the increased risk level which is associated with the configuration; (2) controlling the individual configuration risk which is associated with a given duration of a configuration; (3) controlling the time period configuration risk from configurations which occur in a time period

Immunochip analyses identify a novel risk locus for primary biliary cirrhosis at 13q14, multiple independent associations at four established risk loci and epistasis between 1p31 and 7q32 risk variants

Science.gov (United States)

Juran, Brian D.; Hirschfield, Gideon M.; Invernizzi, Pietro; Atkinson, Elizabeth J.; Li, Yafang; Xie, Gang; Kosoy, Roman; Ransom, Michael; Sun, Ye; Bianchi, Ilaria; Schlicht, Erik M.; Lleo, Ana; Coltescu, Catalina; Bernuzzi, Francesca; Podda, Mauro; Lammert, Craig; Shigeta, Russell; Chan, Landon L.; Balschun, Tobias; Marconi, Maurizio; Cusi, Daniele; Heathcote, E. Jenny; Mason, Andrew L.; Myers, Robert P.; Milkiewicz, Piotr; Odin, Joseph A.; Luketic, Velimir A.; Bacon, Bruce R.; Bodenheimer, Henry C.; Liakina, Valentina; Vincent, Catherine; Levy, Cynthia; Franke, Andre; Gregersen, Peter K.; Bossa, Fabrizio; Gershwin, M. Eric; deAndrade, Mariza; Amos, Christopher I.; Lazaridis, Konstantinos N.; Seldin, Michael F.; Siminovitch, Katherine A.

2012-01-01

To further characterize the genetic basis of primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC), we genotyped 2426 PBC patients and 5731 unaffected controls from three independent cohorts using a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) array (Immunochip) enriched for autoimmune disease risk loci. Meta-analysis of the genotype data sets identified a novel disease-associated locus near the TNFSF11 gene at 13q14, provided evidence for association at six additional immune-related loci not previously implicated in PBC and confirmed associations at 19 of 22 established risk loci. Results of conditional analyses also provided evidence for multiple independent association signals at four risk loci, with haplotype analyses suggesting independent SNP effects at the 2q32 and 16p13 loci, but complex haplotype driven effects at the 3q25 and 6p21 loci. By imputing classical HLA alleles from this data set, four class II alleles independently contributing to the association signal from this region were identified. Imputation of genotypes at the non-HLA loci also provided additional associations, but none with stronger effects than the genotyped variants. An epistatic interaction between the IL12RB2 risk locus at 1p31and the IRF5 risk locus at 7q32 was also identified and suggests a complementary effect of these loci in predisposing to disease. These data expand the repertoire of genes with potential roles in PBC pathogenesis that need to be explored by follow-up biological studies. PMID:22936693

Adjuvant Sunitinib for High-risk Renal Cell Carcinoma After Nephrectomy: Subgroup Analyses and Updated Overall Survival Results.

Science.gov (United States)

Motzer, Robert J; Ravaud, Alain; Patard, Jean-Jacques; Pandha, Hardev S; George, Daniel J; Patel, Anup; Chang, Yen-Hwa; Escudier, Bernard; Donskov, Frede; Magheli, Ahmed; Carteni, Giacomo; Laguerre, Brigitte; Tomczak, Piotr; Breza, Jan; Gerletti, Paola; Lechuga, Mariajose; Lin, Xun; Casey, Michelle; Serfass, Lucile; Pantuck, Allan J; Staehler, Michael

2018-01-01

Adjuvant sunitinib significantly improved disease-free survival (DFS) versus placebo in patients with locoregional renal cell carcinoma (RCC) at high risk of recurrence after nephrectomy (hazard ratio [HR] 0.76, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.59-0.98; p=0.03). To report the relationship between baseline factors and DFS, pattern of recurrence, and updated overall survival (OS). Data for 615 patients randomized to sunitinib (n=309) or placebo (n=306) in the S-TRAC trial. Subgroup DFS analyses by baseline risk factors were conducted using a Cox proportional hazards model. Baseline risk factors included: modified University of California Los Angeles integrated staging system criteria, age, gender, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status (ECOG PS), weight, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), and Fuhrman grade. Of 615 patients, 97 and 122 in the sunitinib and placebo arms developed metastatic disease, with the most common sites of distant recurrence being lung (40 and 49), lymph node (21 and 26), and liver (11 and 14), respectively. A benefit of adjuvant sunitinib over placebo was observed across subgroups, including: higher risk (T3, no or undetermined nodal involvement, Fuhrman grade ≥2, ECOG PS ≥1, T4 and/or nodal involvement; hazard ratio [HR] 0.74, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.55-0.99; p=0.04), NLR ≤3 (HR 0.72, 95% CI 0.54-0.95; p=0.02), and Fuhrman grade 3/4 (HR 0.73, 95% CI 0.55-0.98; p=0.04). All subgroup analyses were exploratory, and no adjustments for multiplicity were made. Median OS was not reached in either arm (HR 0.92, 95% CI 0.66-1.28; p=0.6); 67 and 74 patients died in the sunitinib and placebo arms, respectively. A benefit of adjuvant sunitinib over placebo was observed across subgroups. The results are consistent with the primary analysis, which showed a benefit for adjuvant sunitinib in patients at high risk of recurrent RCC after nephrectomy. Most subgroups of patients at high risk of recurrent renal cell carcinoma after

A Semi Risk-Based Approach for Managing Urban Drainage Systems under Extreme Rainfall

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Carlos Salinas-Rodriguez

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Conventional design standards for urban drainage systems are not set to deal with extreme rainfall events. As these events are becoming more frequent, there is room for proposing new planning approaches and standards that are flexible enough to cope with a wide range of rainfall events. In this paper, a semi risk-based approach is presented as a simple and practical way for the analysis and management of rainfall flooding at the precinct scale. This approach uses various rainfall events as input parameters for the analysis of the flood hazard and impacts, and categorises the flood risk in different levels, ranging from very low to very high risk. When visualised on a map, the insight into the risk levels across the precinct will enable engineers and spatial planners to identify and prioritise interventions to manage the flood risk. The approach is demonstrated for a sewer district in the city of Rotterdam, the Netherlands, using a one-dimensional (1D/two-dimensional (2D flood model. The risk level of this area is classified as being predominantly very low or low, with a couple of locations with high and very high risk. For these locations interventions, such as disconnection and lowering street profiles, have been proposed and analysed with the 1D/2D flood model. The interventions were shown to be effective in reducing the risk levels from very high/high risk to medium/low risk.

Sensitivity in risk analyses with uncertain numbers.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tucker, W. Troy; Ferson, Scott

2006-06-01

Sensitivity analysis is a study of how changes in the inputs to a model influence the results of the model. Many techniques have recently been proposed for use when the model is probabilistic. This report considers the related problem of sensitivity analysis when the model includes uncertain numbers that can involve both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty and the method of calculation is Dempster-Shafer evidence theory or probability bounds analysis. Some traditional methods for sensitivity analysis generalize directly for use with uncertain numbers, but, in some respects, sensitivity analysis for these analyses differs from traditional deterministic or probabilistic sensitivity analyses. A case study of a dike reliability assessment illustrates several methods of sensitivity analysis, including traditional probabilistic assessment, local derivatives, and a ''pinching'' strategy that hypothetically reduces the epistemic uncertainty or aleatory uncertainty, or both, in an input variable to estimate the reduction of uncertainty in the outputs. The prospects for applying the methods to black box models are also considered.

A methodology for analysing human errors of commission in accident scenarios for risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, J. H.; Jung, W. D.; Park, J. K

2003-01-01

As the concern on the impact of the operator's inappropriate interventions, so-called Errors Of Commissions(EOCs), on the plant safety has been raised, the interest in the identification and analysis of EOC events from the risk assessment perspective becomes increasing accordingly. To this purpose, we propose a new methodology for identifying and analysing human errors of commission that might be caused from the failures in situation assessment and decision making during accident progressions given an initiating event. The proposed methodology was applied to the accident scenarios of YGN 3 and 4 NPPs, which resulted in about 10 EOC situations that need careful attention

The interrelation between hypothyroidism and glaucoma: a critical review and meta-analyses.

Science.gov (United States)

Thvilum, Marianne; Brandt, Frans; Brix, Thomas Heiberg; Hegedüs, Laszlo

2017-12-01

Data on the association between hypothyroidism and glaucoma are conflicting. We sought to shed light on this by conducting a critical review and meta-analyses. The meta-analyses were conducted in adherence with the widely accepted MOOSE guidelines. Using the Medical Subject Heading (MeSH) terms: hypothyroidism, myxoedema and glaucoma or intraocular pressure, case-control studies, cohort studies and cross-sectional studies were identified (PubMed) and reviewed. Using meta-analysis, the relative risk (RR) of coexistence of glaucoma and hypothyroidism was calculated. Based on the literature search, thirteen studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria and could be categorized into two groups based on the exposure. The designs of the studies varied considerably, and there was heterogeneity related to lack of power, weak phenotype classifications and length of follow-up. Eight studies had glaucoma (5757 patients) as exposure and hypothyroidism as outcome. Among these, we found a non-significantly increased risk of hypothyroidism associated with glaucoma (RR 1.65; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.97-2.82). Based on five studies (168 006 patients) with hypothyroidism as exposure and glaucoma as outcome, we found the risk of glaucoma to be significantly increased (RR 1.33; 95% CI: 1.13-1.58). Based on these meta-analyses, there seems to be an association between hypothyroidism and glaucoma, which does not seem to be the case between glaucoma and hypothyroidism. However, larger scale studies with better phenotype classification, longer follow-up and taking comorbidity and other biases into consideration are needed to address a potential causal relationship. © 2017 Acta Ophthalmologica Scandinavica Foundation. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Unconscious analyses of visual scenes based on feature conjunctions.

Science.gov (United States)

Tachibana, Ryosuke; Noguchi, Yasuki

2015-06-01

To efficiently process a cluttered scene, the visual system analyzes statistical properties or regularities of visual elements embedded in the scene. It is controversial, however, whether those scene analyses could also work for stimuli unconsciously perceived. Here we show that our brain performs the unconscious scene analyses not only using a single featural cue (e.g., orientation) but also based on conjunctions of multiple visual features (e.g., combinations of color and orientation information). Subjects foveally viewed a stimulus array (duration: 50 ms) where 4 types of bars (red-horizontal, red-vertical, green-horizontal, and green-vertical) were intermixed. Although a conscious perception of those bars was inhibited by a subsequent mask stimulus, the brain correctly analyzed the information about color, orientation, and color-orientation conjunctions of those invisible bars. The information of those features was then used for the unconscious configuration analysis (statistical processing) of the central bars, which induced a perceptual bias and illusory feature binding in visible stimuli at peripheral locations. While statistical analyses and feature binding are normally 2 key functions of the visual system to construct coherent percepts of visual scenes, our results show that a high-level analysis combining those 2 functions is correctly performed by unconscious computations in the brain. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Process for carrying out analyses based on concurrent reactions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Glover, J S; Shepherd, B P

1980-01-03

The invention refers to a process for carrying out analyses based on concurrent reactions. A part of a compound to be analysed is subjected with a standard quantity of this compound in a labelled form to a common reaction with a standard quantity of a reagent, which must be less than the sum of the two parts of the reacting compound. The parts of the marked reaction compound and the labelled final compound resulting from the concurrence are separated in a tube (e.g. by centrifuging) after forced phase change (precipitation, absorption etc.) and the radio-activity of both phases in contact is measured separately. The shielded measuring device developed for this and suitable for centrifuge tubes of known dimensions is also included in the patent claims. The insulin concentration of a defined serum is measured as an example of the applications of the method (Radioimmunoassay).

Risk-informed regulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hoffman, D.R.

2003-01-01

In assessing safety for nuclear facilities, regulators have traditionally used a deterministic approach. New techniques for assessing nuclear or radiological risks make it possible for regulators to incorporate risk insights into their regulations. By 'risk-informing' the regulatory processes, independent bodies tasked with protecting the health and safety of the public can focus on those design and operational issues most important to safety. Such an approach is a move away from prescriptive regulations that were based on conservative engineering judgments toward regulations focused on issues that contribute significantly to safety. Despite the availability of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) tools, organisations often struggle with how to best use this capability. Most international regulations are still based largely on deterministic analyses that were developed without the benefit of quantitative or measurable estimates of risk. PRA considers issues of risk in a more comprehensive manner by examining a wider spectrum of initiating events and their frequency, and considers the likelihood of events in a rigorous and comprehensive manner. In some countries, nuclear regulators are actively moving toward increasing the use of risk insights in a variety of strategic arenas, including risk-informed technical specifications (operating limits and conditions), in-service inspection and testing, programs, and assessment and enforcement actions. A risk-informed approach enhances the traditional deterministic approach by explicitly considering a broader range of safety challenges, focusing resources on the basis of risk significance, considering a broader range of counter measures to mitigate challenges, and explicitly identifying and quantifying uncertainties in analyses. (author)

Risk-based performance indicators

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Azarm, M.A.; Boccio, J.L.; Vesely, W.E.; Lofgren, E.

1987-01-01

The purpose of risk-based indicators is to monitor plant safety. Safety is measured by monitoring the potential for core melt (core-melt frequency) and the public risk. Targets for these measures can be set consistent with NRC safety goals. In this process, the performance of safety systems, support systems, major components, and initiating events can be monitored using measures such as unavailability, failure or occurrence frequency. The changes in performance measures and their trends are determined from the time behavior of monitored measures by differentiation between stochastical and actual variations. Therefore, degradation, as well as improvement in the plant safety performance, can be determined. The development of risk-based performance indicators will also provide the means to trace a change in the safety measures to specific problem areas which are amenable to root cause analysis and inspection audits. In addition, systematic methods will be developed to identify specific improvement policies using the plant information system for the identified problem areas. The final product of the performance indicator project will be a methodology, and an integrated and validated set of software packages which, if properly interfaced with the logic model software of a plant, can monitor the plant performance as plant information is provided as input

Risk-based decision making for terrorism applications.

Science.gov (United States)

Dillon, Robin L; Liebe, Robert M; Bestafka, Thomas

2009-03-01

This article describes the anti-terrorism risk-based decision aid (ARDA), a risk-based decision-making approach for prioritizing anti-terrorism measures. The ARDA model was developed as part of a larger effort to assess investments for protecting U.S. Navy assets at risk and determine whether the most effective anti-terrorism alternatives are being used to reduce the risk to the facilities and war-fighting assets. With ARDA and some support from subject matter experts, we examine thousands of scenarios composed of 15 attack modes against 160 facility types on two installations and hundreds of portfolios of 22 mitigation alternatives. ARDA uses multiattribute utility theory to solve some of the commonly identified challenges in security risk analysis. This article describes the process and documents lessons learned from applying the ARDA model for this application.

Komparativ analyse - Scandinavian Airlines & Norwegian Air Shuttle

OpenAIRE

Kallesen, Martin Nystrup; Singh, Ravi Pal; Boesen, Nana Wiaberg

2017-01-01

The project is based around a pondering of how that a company the size of Scandinavian Airlines or Norwegian Air Shuttle use their Finances and how they see their external environment. This has led to us researching the relationship between the companies and their finances as well as their external environment, and how they differ in both.To do this we have utilised a myriad of different methods to analyse the companies, including PESTEL, SWOT, TOWS; DCF, risk analysis, Sensitivity, Porter’s ...

Collision risk in white-tailed eagles. Modelling kernel-based collision risk using satellite telemetry data in Smoela wind-power plant

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

May, Roel; Nygaard, Torgeir; Dahl, Espen Lie; Reitan, Ole; Bevanger, Kjetil

2011-05-15

Large soaring birds of prey, such as the white-tailed eagle, are recognized to be perhaps the most vulnerable bird group regarding risk of collisions with turbines in wind-power plants. Their mortalities have called for methods capable of modelling collision risks in connection with the planning of new wind-power developments. The so-called 'Band model' estimates collision risk based on the number of birds flying through the rotor swept zone and the probability of being hit by the passing rotor blades. In the calculations for the expected collision mortality a correction factor for avoidance behaviour is included. The overarching objective of this study was to use satellite telemetry data and recorded mortality to back-calculate the correction factor for white-tailed eagles. The Smoela wind-power plant consists of 68 turbines, over an area of approximately 18 km2. Since autumn 2006 the number of collisions has been recorded on a weekly basis. The analyses were based on satellite telemetry data from 28 white-tailed eagles equipped with backpack transmitters since 2005. The correction factor (i.e. 'avoidance rate') including uncertainty levels used within the Band collision risk model for white-tailed eagles was 99% (94-100%) for spring and 100% for the other seasons. The year-round estimate, irrespective of season, was 98% (95-99%). Although the year-round estimate was similar, the correction factor for spring was higher than the correction factor of 95% derived earlier from vantage point data. The satellite telemetry data may provide an alternative way to provide insight into relative risk among seasons, and help identify periods or areas with increased risk either in a pre- or post construction situation. (Author)

Risk-based decision making and risk management of European Union regional programs

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michalopoulos Evangelos

2008-01-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a generalized method for management decision making incorporating risk assessment techniques. The risk based decision making methodology is applied to European Union expenditure programs used to implement its regional policy, such as the community support framework, community initiatives, special initiatives and other European policies. An example is presented for the development of an audit (inspection program in the region of West Macedonia, Greece, during the implementation of the 3rd Community Structural Support Framework Operational Program. The generic nature of the method permits its use in the management of similar European regional programs in Greece and other European countries. It is also applicable to many other industries interested in applying risk-based management decisions to physical or process based systems. .

Fetal growth and risk of stillbirth: a population-based case-control study.

Science.gov (United States)

Bukowski, Radek; Hansen, Nellie I; Willinger, Marian; Reddy, Uma M; Parker, Corette B; Pinar, Halit; Silver, Robert M; Dudley, Donald J; Stoll, Barbara J; Saade, George R; Koch, Matthew A; Rowland Hogue, Carol J; Varner, Michael W; Conway, Deborah L; Coustan, Donald; Goldenberg, Robert L

2014-04-01

Stillbirth is strongly related to impaired fetal growth. However, the relationship between fetal growth and stillbirth is difficult to determine because of uncertainty in the timing of death and confounding characteristics affecting normal fetal growth. We conducted a population-based case-control study of all stillbirths and a representative sample of live births in 59 hospitals in five geographic areas in the US. Fetal growth abnormalities were categorized as small for gestational age (SGA) (90th percentile) at death (stillbirth) or delivery (live birth) using population, ultrasound, and individualized norms. Gestational age at death was determined using an algorithm that considered the time-of-death interval, postmortem examination, and reliability of the gestational age estimate. Data were weighted to account for the sampling design and differential participation rates in various subgroups. Among 527 singleton stillbirths and 1,821 singleton live births studied, stillbirth was associated with SGA based on population, ultrasound, and individualized norms (odds ratio [OR] [95% CI]: 3.0 [2.2 to 4.0]; 4.7 [3.7 to 5.9]; 4.6 [3.6 to 5.9], respectively). LGA was also associated with increased risk of stillbirth using ultrasound and individualized norms (OR [95% CI]: 3.5 [2.4 to 5.0]; 2.3 [1.7 to 3.1], respectively), but not population norms (OR [95% CI]: 0.6 [0.4 to 1.0]). The associations were stronger with more severe SGA and LGA (95th percentile). Analyses adjusted for stillbirth risk factors, subset analyses excluding potential confounders, and analyses in preterm and term pregnancies showed similar patterns of association. In this study 70% of cases and 63% of controls agreed to participate. Analysis weights accounted for differences between consenting and non-consenting women. Some of the characteristics used for individualized fetal growth estimates were missing and were replaced with reference values. However, a sensitivity analysis using individualized norms

Probabilistic aspects of risk analyses for hazardous facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Morici, A.; Valeri, A.; Zaffiro, C.

1989-01-01

The work described in the paper discusses the aspects of the risk analysis concerned with the use of the probabilistic methodology, in order to see how this approach may affect the risk management of industrial hazardous facilities. To this purpose reference is done to the Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) of nuclear power plants. The paper points out that even though the public aversion towards nuclear risks is still far from being removed, the probabilistic approach may provide a sound support to the decision making and authorization process for any industrial activity implying risk for the environment and the public health. It is opinion of the authors that the probabilistic techniques have been developed to a great level of sophistication in the nuclear industry and provided much more experience in this field than in others. For some particular areas of the nuclear applications, such as the plant reliability and the plant response to the accidents, these techniques have reached a sufficient level of maturity and so some results have been usefully taken as a measure of the safety level of the plant itself. The use of some limited safety goals is regarded as a relevant item of the nuclear licensing process. The paper claims that it is time now that these methods would be applied with equal success to other hazardous facilities, and makes some comparative consideration on the differences of these plants with nuclear power plants in order to understand the effect of these differences on the PRA results and on the use one intends to make with them. (author)

RiskREP: Risk-Based Security Requirements Elicitation and Prioritization (extended version)

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Herrmann, Andrea; Morali, A.

2010-01-01

Today, companies are required to be in control of the security of their IT assets. This is especially challenging in the presence of limited budgets and conflicting requirements. Here, we present Risk-Based Requirements Elicitation and Prioritization (RiskREP), a method for managing IT security

Risk Factors in Derivatives Markets

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Raimonda Martinkutė-Kaulienė

2015-02-01

Full Text Available The objective of the article is to analyse and present the classification of risks actual to derivative securities. The analysis is based on classical and modern literature findings and analysis of newest statistical data. The analysis led to the conclusion, that the main risks typical for derivatives contracts and their traders are market risk, liquidity risk, credit and counterparty risk, legal risk and transactions risk. Pricing risk and systemic risk is also quite important. The analysis showed that market risk is the most important kind of risk that in many situations influences the level of remaining risks.

Cancer risk of anti-TNF-α at recommended doses in adult rheumatoid arthritis: a meta-analysis with intention to treat and per protocol analyses.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Guillaume Moulis

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The risk of malignancies on TNF-α antagonists is controversial. The aim of this survey was to assess cancer risk on TNF-α antagonists in adult rheumatoid arthritis patients, including the five marketed drugs (infliximab, etanercept, adalimumab, golimumab and certolizumab used in line with the New Drug Application. Furthermore, the relative interest of modified intention to treat or per protocol analyses to assess such sparse events remains unknown. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Data sources were MEDLINE, CENTRAL, ISI Web of Science, ACR and EULAR meeting abstracts, scientific evaluation of the drugs leading to their marketing approval, and clinicaltrials.gov, until 31 December 2012.We selected double-blind randomized controlled trials in adult rheumatoid arthritis patients, including at least one treatment arm in line with New Drug Application. We performed random effect meta-analysis, with modified intention to treat and per protocol analyses. Thirty-three trials were included. There was no excess risk of malignancies on anti-TNF-α administered in line with New Drug Application in the per protocol model (OR, 0.93 95%CI[0.59-1.44], as well as in the modified intention to treat model (OR, 1.27 95%CI[0.82-1.98]. There was a non-significant tendency for an excess non-melanoma skin cancer risk in both models (respectively, 1.37 [0.71-2.66] and 1.90 [0.98-3.67]. With fixed effect Peto model restricting to trials during at least 52 weeks, the overall cancer risk was respectively 1.60 [0.97-2.64] and 1.22 [0.72-2.08]. Whatever the model, modified intention to treat analysis led to higher estimations than per protocol analysis. The later may underestimate the treatment effect when assessing very sparse events and when many patients dropped out in placebo arms. In metaregression, there was no differential risk among the five drugs. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: This study did not find any evidence for an excess cancer risk on TNF

Automatic incrementalization of Prolog based static analyses

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Eichberg, Michael; Kahl, Matthias; Saha, Diptikalyan

2007-01-01

Modem development environments integrate various static analyses into the build process. Analyses that analyze the whole project whenever the project changes are impractical in this context. We present an approach to automatic incrementalization of analyses that are specified as tabled logic...... programs and evaluated using incremental tabled evaluation, a technique for efficiently updating memo tables in response to changes in facts and rules. The approach has been implemented and integrated into the Eclipse IDE. Our measurements show that this technique is effective for automatically...

Hepatitis C virus infection and risk of cancer: a population-based cohort study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lars Haukali Omland

2010-06-01

Full Text Available Lars Haukali Omland1, Dora Körmendiné Farkas2, Peter Jepsen2,3, Niels Obel1, Lars Pedersen21Department of Infectious Diseases, Rigshospitalet, Denmark; 2Department of Clinical Epidemiology, 3Department of Medicine V (Hepatology and Gastroenterology, Aarhus University Hospital, DenmarkBackground: Hepatitis C virus (HCV infection is associated with an increased risk of primary liver cancer; however, 5- and 10-year risk estimates are needed. The association of HCV with non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL is uncertain and the association with other cancers is unknown.Method: We conducted a nationwide, population-based cohort study of 4,349 HCV-infected patients in Denmark, computing standardized incidence ratios (SIR of cancer incidence in HCV infected patients compared with cancer incidence of the general population. We calculated 5-and 10-year risks of developing cancer, stratifying our analyses based on the presence of HIV coinfection and cirrhosis.Results: We recorded an increased risk of primary liver cancer (SIR: 76.63 [95% CI: 51.69–109.40], NHL (SIR: 1.89 [95% CI: 0.39–5.52], and several smoking- and alcohol-related cancers in HCV infected patients without HIV coinfection. HCV-infected patients without HIV coinfection had a 6.3% (95% CI: 4.6%–8.7% risk of developing cancer and 2.0% (95% CI: 1.1%–3.8% risk of developing primary liver cancer within 10 years.Conclusion: We confirmed the association of HCV infection with primary liver cancer and NHL. We also observed an association between HCV infection and alcohol- and smoking-related cancers.Keywords: hepatitis C virus, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, standardized incidence ratio, cancer

12 CFR 932.3 - Risk-based capital requirement.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... credit risk capital requirement, its market risk capital requirement, and its operations risk capital... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk-based capital requirement. 932.3 Section 932.3 Banks and Banking FEDERAL HOUSING FINANCE BOARD FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANK RISK MANAGEMENT AND...

Selecting a risk-based tool to aid in decision making

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bendure, A.O.

1995-03-01

Selecting a risk-based tool to aid in decision making is as much of a challenge as properly using the tool once it has been selected. Failure to consider customer and stakeholder requirements and the technical bases and differences in risk-based decision making tools will produce confounding and/or politically unacceptable results when the tool is used. Selecting a risk-based decisionmaking tool must therefore be undertaken with the same, if not greater, rigor than the use of the tool once it is selected. This paper presents a process for selecting a risk-based tool appropriate to a set of prioritization or resource allocation tasks, discusses the results of applying the process to four risk-based decision-making tools, and identifies the ``musts`` for successful selection and implementation of a risk-based tool to aid in decision making.

Risk Classification and Risk-based Safety and Mission Assurance

Science.gov (United States)

Leitner, Jesse A.

2014-01-01

Recent activities to revamp and emphasize the need to streamline processes and activities for Class D missions across the agency have led to various interpretations of Class D, including the lumping of a variety of low-cost projects into Class D. Sometimes terms such as Class D minus are used. In this presentation, mission risk classifications will be traced to official requirements and definitions as a measure to ensure that projects and programs align with the guidance and requirements that are commensurate for their defined risk posture. As part of this, the full suite of risk classifications, formal and informal will be defined, followed by an introduction to the new GPR 8705.4 that is currently under review.GPR 8705.4 lays out guidance for the mission success activities performed at the Classes A-D for NPR 7120.5 projects as well as for projects not under NPR 7120.5. Furthermore, the trends in stepping from Class A into higher risk posture classifications will be discussed. The talk will conclude with a discussion about risk-based safety and mission assuranceat GSFC.

Genetic and Environmental Risk for Chronic Pain and the Contribution of Risk Variants for Major Depressive Disorder: A Family-Based Mixed-Model Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

McIntosh, Andrew M; Hall, Lynsey S; Zeng, Yanni; Adams, Mark J; Gibson, Jude; Wigmore, Eleanor; Hagenaars, Saskia P; Davies, Gail; Fernandez-Pujals, Ana Maria; Campbell, Archie I; Clarke, Toni-Kim; Hayward, Caroline; Haley, Chris S; Porteous, David J; Deary, Ian J; Smith, Daniel J; Nicholl, Barbara I; Hinds, David A; Jones, Amy V; Scollen, Serena; Meng, Weihua; Smith, Blair H; Hocking, Lynne J

2016-08-01

Chronic pain is highly prevalent and a significant source of disability, yet its genetic and environmental risk factors are poorly understood. Its relationship with major depressive disorder (MDD) is of particular importance. We sought to test the contribution of genetic factors and shared and unique environment to risk of chronic pain and its correlation with MDD in Generation Scotland: Scottish Family Health Study (GS:SFHS). We then sought to replicate any significant findings in the United Kingdom Biobank study. Using family-based mixed-model analyses, we examined the contribution of genetics and shared family environment to chronic pain by spouse, sibling, and household relationships. These analyses were conducted in GS:SFHS (n = 23,960), a family- and population-based study of individuals recruited from the Scottish population through their general practitioners. We then examined and partitioned the correlation between chronic pain and MDD and estimated the contribution of genetic factors and shared environment in GS:SFHS. Finally, we used data from two independent genome-wide association studies to test whether chronic pain has a polygenic architecture and examine whether genomic risk of psychiatric disorder predicted chronic pain and whether genomic risk of chronic pain predicted MDD. These analyses were conducted in GS:SFHS and repeated in UK Biobank, a study of 500,000 from the UK population, of whom 112,151 had genotyping and phenotypic data. Chronic pain is a moderately heritable trait (heritability = 38.4%, 95% CI 33.6% to 43.9%) that is significantly concordant in spouses (variance explained 18.7%, 95% CI 9.5% to 25.1%). Chronic pain is positively correlated with depression (ρ = 0.13, 95% CI 0.11 to 0.15, p = 2.72x10-68) and shows a tendency to cluster within families for genetic reasons (genetic correlation = 0.51, 95%CI 0.40 to 0.62, p = 8.24x10-19). Polygenic risk profiles for pain, generated using independent GWAS data, were associated with

Genetic and Environmental Risk for Chronic Pain and the Contribution of Risk Variants for Major Depressive Disorder: A Family-Based Mixed-Model Analysis.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrew M McIntosh

2016-08-01

Full Text Available Chronic pain is highly prevalent and a significant source of disability, yet its genetic and environmental risk factors are poorly understood. Its relationship with major depressive disorder (MDD is of particular importance. We sought to test the contribution of genetic factors and shared and unique environment to risk of chronic pain and its correlation with MDD in Generation Scotland: Scottish Family Health Study (GS:SFHS. We then sought to replicate any significant findings in the United Kingdom Biobank study.Using family-based mixed-model analyses, we examined the contribution of genetics and shared family environment to chronic pain by spouse, sibling, and household relationships. These analyses were conducted in GS:SFHS (n = 23,960, a family- and population-based study of individuals recruited from the Scottish population through their general practitioners. We then examined and partitioned the correlation between chronic pain and MDD and estimated the contribution of genetic factors and shared environment in GS:SFHS. Finally, we used data from two independent genome-wide association studies to test whether chronic pain has a polygenic architecture and examine whether genomic risk of psychiatric disorder predicted chronic pain and whether genomic risk of chronic pain predicted MDD. These analyses were conducted in GS:SFHS and repeated in UK Biobank, a study of 500,000 from the UK population, of whom 112,151 had genotyping and phenotypic data. Chronic pain is a moderately heritable trait (heritability = 38.4%, 95% CI 33.6% to 43.9% that is significantly concordant in spouses (variance explained 18.7%, 95% CI 9.5% to 25.1%. Chronic pain is positively correlated with depression (ρ = 0.13, 95% CI 0.11 to 0.15, p = 2.72x10-68 and shows a tendency to cluster within families for genetic reasons (genetic correlation = 0.51, 95%CI 0.40 to 0.62, p = 8.24x10-19. Polygenic risk profiles for pain, generated using independent GWAS data, were associated

Mechanism-based risk assessment strategy for drug-induced cholestasis using the transcriptional benchmark dose derived by toxicogenomics.

Science.gov (United States)

Kawamoto, Taisuke; Ito, Yuichi; Morita, Osamu; Honda, Hiroshi

2017-01-01

Cholestasis is one of the major causes of drug-induced liver injury (DILI), which can result in withdrawal of approved drugs from the market. Early identification of cholestatic drugs is difficult due to the complex mechanisms involved. In order to develop a strategy for mechanism-based risk assessment of cholestatic drugs, we analyzed gene expression data obtained from the livers of rats that had been orally administered with 12 known cholestatic compounds repeatedly for 28 days at three dose levels. Qualitative analyses were performed using two statistical approaches (hierarchical clustering and principle component analysis), in addition to pathway analysis. The transcriptional benchmark dose (tBMD) and tBMD 95% lower limit (tBMDL) were used for quantitative analyses, which revealed three compound sub-groups that produced different types of differential gene expression; these groups of genes were mainly involved in inflammation, cholesterol biosynthesis, and oxidative stress. Furthermore, the tBMDL values for each test compound were in good agreement with the relevant no observed adverse effect level. These results indicate that our novel strategy for drug safety evaluation using mechanism-based classification and tBMDL would facilitate the application of toxicogenomics for risk assessment of cholestatic DILI.

Modifiable risk factors for schizophrenia and autism--shared risk factors impacting on brain development.

Science.gov (United States)

Hamlyn, Jess; Duhig, Michael; McGrath, John; Scott, James

2013-05-01

Schizophrenia and autism are two poorly understood clinical syndromes that differ in age of onset and clinical profile. However, recent genetic and epidemiological research suggests that these two neurodevelopmental disorders share certain risk factors. The aims of this review are to describe modifiable risk factors that have been identified in both disorders, and, where available, collate salient systematic reviews and meta-analyses that have examined shared risk factors. Based on searches of Medline, Embase and PsycINFO, inspection of review articles and expert opinion, we first compiled a set of candidate modifiable risk factors associated with autism. Where available, we next collated systematic-reviews (with or without meta-analyses) related to modifiable risk factors associated with both autism and schizophrenia. We identified three modifiable risk factors that have been examined in systematic reviews for both autism and schizophrenia. Advanced paternal age was reported as a risk factor for schizophrenia in a single meta-analysis and as a risk factor in two meta-analyses for autism. With respect to pregnancy and birth complications, for autism one meta-analysis identified maternal diabetes and bleeding during pregnancy as risks factors for autism whilst a meta-analysis of eight studies identified obstetric complications as a risk factor for schizophrenia. Migrant status was identified as a risk factor for both autism and schizophrenia. Two separate meta-analyses were identified for each disorder. Despite distinct clinical phenotypes, the evidence suggests that at least some non-genetic risk factors are shared between these two syndromes. In particular, exposure to drugs, nutritional excesses or deficiencies and infectious agents lend themselves to public health interventions. Studies are now needed to quantify any increase in risk of either autism or schizophrenia that is associated with these modifiable environmental factors. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc

Study of operational risk-based configuration control

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vesely, W E [Science Applications International Corp., Dublin, OH (United States); Samanta, P K; Kim, I S [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States)

1991-08-01

This report studies aspects of a risk-based configuration control system to detect and control plant configurations from a risk perspective. Configuration control, as the term is used here, is the management of component configurations to achieve specific objectives. One important objective is to control risk and safety. Another is to operate efficiently and make effective use of available resources. PSA-based evaluations are performed to study configuration to core-melt frequency and core-melt probability for two plants. Some equipment configurations can cause large core-melt frequency and there are a number of such configurations that are not currently controlled by technical specifications. However, the expected frequency of occurrence of the impacting configurations is small and the core-melt probability contributions are also generally small. The insights from this evaluation are used to develop the framework for an effective risk-based configuration control system. The focal points of such a system and the requirements for tools development for implementing the system are defined. The requirements of risk models needed for the system, and the uses of plant-specific data are also discussed. 18 refs., 25 figs., 10 tabs.

U.S. Natural Gas Storage Risk-Based Ranking Methodology and Results

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Folga, Steve [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Portante, Edgar [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Shamsuddin, Shabbir [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Tompkins, Angeli [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Talaber, Leah [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); McLamore, Mike [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Kavicky, Jim [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Conzelmann, Guenter [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Levin, Todd [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)

2016-10-01

This report summarizes the methodology and models developed to assess the risk to energy delivery from the potential loss of underground gas storage (UGS) facilities located within the United States. The U.S. has a total of 418 existing storage fields, of which 390 are currently active. The models estimate the impacts of a disruption of each of the active UGS facilities on their owners/operators, including (1) local distribution companies (LDCs), (2) directly connected transporting pipelines and thus on the customers in downstream States, and (3) third-party entities and thus on contracted customers expecting the gas shipment. Impacts are measured across all natural gas customer classes. For the electric sector, impacts are quantified in terms of natural gas-fired electric generation capacity potentially affected from the loss of a UGS facility. For the purpose of calculating the overall supply risk, the overall consequence of the disruption of an UGS facility across all customer classes is expressed in terms of the number of expected equivalent residential customer outages per year, which combines the unit business interruption cost per customer class and the estimated number of affected natural gas customers with estimated probabilities of UGS disruptions. All models and analyses are based on publicly available data. The report presents a set of findings and recommendations in terms of data, further analyses, regulatory requirements and standards, and needs to improve gas/electric industry coordination for electric reliability.

III: Use of biomarkers as Risk Indicators in Environmental Risk Assessment of oil based discharges offshore.

Science.gov (United States)

Sanni, Steinar; Lyng, Emily; Pampanin, Daniela M

2017-06-01

Offshore oil and gas activities are required not to cause adverse environmental effects, and risk based management has been established to meet environmental standards. In some risk assessment schemes, Risk Indicators (RIs) are parameters to monitor the development of risk affecting factors. RIs have not yet been established in the Environmental Risk Assessment procedures for management of oil based discharges offshore. This paper evaluates the usefulness of biomarkers as RIs, based on their properties, existing laboratory biomarker data and assessment methods. Data shows several correlations between oil concentrations and biomarker responses, and assessment principles exist that qualify biomarkers for integration into risk procedures. Different ways that these existing biomarkers and methods can be applied as RIs in a probabilistic risk assessment system when linked with whole organism responses are discussed. This can be a useful approach to integrate biomarkers into probabilistic risk assessment related to oil based discharges, representing a potential supplement to information that biomarkers already provide about environmental impact and risk related to these kind of discharges. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk-based Regulatory Evaluation Program methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

DuCharme, A.R.; Sanders, G.A.; Carlson, D.D.; Asselin, S.V.

1987-01-01

The objectives of this DOE-supported Regulatory Evaluation Progrwam are to analyze and evaluate the safety importance and economic significance of existing regulatory guidance in order to assist in the improvement of the regulatory process for current generation and future design reactors. A risk-based cost-benefit methodology was developed to evaluate the safety benefit and cost of specific regulations or Standard Review Plan sections. Risk-based methods can be used in lieu of or in combination with deterministic methods in developing regulatory requirements and reaching regulatory decisions

Study of a risk-based piping inspection guideline system.

Science.gov (United States)

Tien, Shiaw-Wen; Hwang, Wen-Tsung; Tsai, Chih-Hung

2007-02-01

A risk-based inspection system and a piping inspection guideline model were developed in this study. The research procedure consists of two parts--the building of a risk-based inspection model for piping and the construction of a risk-based piping inspection guideline model. Field visits at the plant were conducted to develop the risk-based inspection and strategic analysis system. A knowledge-based model had been built in accordance with international standards and local government regulations, and the rational unified process was applied for reducing the discrepancy in the development of the models. The models had been designed to analyze damage factors, damage models, and potential damage positions of piping in the petrochemical plants. The purpose of this study was to provide inspection-related personnel with the optimal planning tools for piping inspections, hence, to enable effective predictions of potential piping risks and to enhance the better degree of safety in plant operations that the petrochemical industries can be expected to achieve. A risk analysis was conducted on the piping system of a petrochemical plant. The outcome indicated that most of the risks resulted from a small number of pipelines.

The Application of Asymmetric Liquidity Risk Measure in Modelling the Risk of Investment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Garsztka Przemysław

2015-06-01

Full Text Available The article analyses the relationship between investment risk (as measured by the variance of returns or standard deviation of returns and liquidity risk. The paper presents a method for calculating a new measure of liquidity risk, based on the characteristic line. In addition, it is checked what is the impact of liquidity risk to the volatility of daily returns. To describe this relationship dynamic econometric models were used. It was found that there was an econometric relationship between the proposed measure liquidity risk and the variance of returns.

Feasibility assessment of a risk-based approach to technical specifications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Atefi, B.; Gallagher, D.W.

1991-05-01

To assess the potential use of risk and reliability techniques for improving the effectiveness of the technical specifications to control plant operational risk, the Technical Specifications Branch of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission initiated an effort to identify and evaluate alternative risk-based approaches that could bring greater risk perspective to these requirements. In the first phase four alternative approaches were identified and their characteristics were analyzed. Among these, the risk-based approach to technical specifications is the most promising approach for controlling plant operational risk using technical specifications. The second phase of the study concentrated on detailed characteristics of the real time risk-based approach. It is concluded that a real time risk-based approach to technical specifications has the potential to improve both plant safety and availability. 33 figs., 5 figs., 6 tabs

Estimating the value of a Country's built assets: investment-based exposure modelling for global risk assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Daniell, James; Pomonis, Antonios; Gunasekera, Rashmin; Ishizawa, Oscar; Gaspari, Maria; Lu, Xijie; Aubrecht, Christoph; Ungar, Joachim

2017-04-01

In order to quantify disaster risk, there is a demand and need for determining consistent and reliable economic value of built assets at national or sub national level exposed to natural hazards. The value of the built stock in the context of a city or a country is critical for risk modelling applications as it allows for the upper bound in potential losses to be established. Under the World Bank probabilistic disaster risk assessment - Country Disaster Risk Profiles (CDRP) Program and rapid post-disaster loss analyses in CATDAT, key methodologies have been developed that quantify the asset exposure of a country. In this study, we assess the complementary methods determining value of building stock through capital investment data vs aggregated ground up values based on built area and unit cost of construction analyses. Different approaches to modelling exposure around the world, have resulted in estimated values of built assets of some countries differing by order(s) of magnitude. Using the aforementioned methodology of comparing investment data based capital stock and bottom-up unit cost of construction values per square meter of assets; a suitable range of capital stock estimates for built assets have been created. A blind test format was undertaken to compare the two types of approaches from top-down (investment) and bottom-up (construction cost per unit), In many cases, census data, demographic, engineering and construction cost data are key for bottom-up calculations from previous years. Similarly for the top-down investment approach, distributed GFCF (Gross Fixed Capital Formation) data is also required. Over the past few years, numerous studies have been undertaken through the World Bank Caribbean and Central America disaster risk assessment program adopting this methodology initially developed by Gunasekera et al. (2015). The range of values of the building stock is tested for around 15 countries. In addition, three types of costs - Reconstruction cost

Risk-based rules for crane safety systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ruud, Stian [Section for Control Systems, DNV Maritime, 1322 Hovik (Norway)], E-mail: Stian.Ruud@dnv.com; Mikkelsen, Age [Section for Lifting Appliances, DNV Maritime, 1322 Hovik (Norway)], E-mail: Age.Mikkelsen@dnv.com

2008-09-15

The International Maritime Organisation (IMO) has recommended a method called formal safety assessment (FSA) for future development of rules and regulations. The FSA method has been applied in a pilot research project for development of risk-based rules and functional requirements for systems and components for offshore crane systems. This paper reports some developments in the project. A method for estimating target reliability for the risk-control options (safety functions) by means of the cost/benefit decision criterion has been developed in the project and is presented in this paper. Finally, a structure for risk-based rules is proposed and presented.

Risk-based rules for crane safety systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ruud, Stian; Mikkelsen, Age

2008-01-01

The International Maritime Organisation (IMO) has recommended a method called formal safety assessment (FSA) for future development of rules and regulations. The FSA method has been applied in a pilot research project for development of risk-based rules and functional requirements for systems and components for offshore crane systems. This paper reports some developments in the project. A method for estimating target reliability for the risk-control options (safety functions) by means of the cost/benefit decision criterion has been developed in the project and is presented in this paper. Finally, a structure for risk-based rules is proposed and presented

Event-based historical value-at-risk

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hogenboom, F.P.; Winter, Michael; Hogenboom, A.C.; Jansen, Milan; Frasincar, F.; Kaymak, U.

2012-01-01

Value-at-Risk (VaR) is an important tool to assess portfolio risk. When calculating VaR based on historical stock return data, we hypothesize that this historical data is sensitive to outliers caused by news events in the sampled period. In this paper, we research whether the VaR accuracy can be

Risk-based audit selection of dairy farms.

Science.gov (United States)

van Asseldonk, M A P M; Velthuis, A G J

2014-02-01

Dairy farms are audited in the Netherlands on numerous process standards. Each farm is audited once every 2 years. Increasing demands for cost-effectiveness in farm audits can be met by introducing risk-based principles. This implies targeting subpopulations with a higher risk of poor process standards. To select farms for an audit that present higher risks, a statistical analysis was conducted to test the relationship between the outcome of farm audits and bulk milk laboratory results before the audit. The analysis comprised 28,358 farm audits and all conducted laboratory tests of bulk milk samples 12 mo before the audit. The overall outcome of each farm audit was classified as approved or rejected. Laboratory results included somatic cell count (SCC), total bacterial count (TBC), antimicrobial drug residues (ADR), level of butyric acid spores (BAB), freezing point depression (FPD), level of free fatty acids (FFA), and cleanliness of the milk (CLN). The bulk milk laboratory results were significantly related to audit outcomes. Rejected audits are likely to occur on dairy farms with higher mean levels of SCC, TBC, ADR, and BAB. Moreover, in a multivariable model, maxima for TBC, SCC, and FPD as well as standard deviations for TBC and FPD are risk factors for negative audit outcomes. The efficiency curve of a risk-based selection approach, on the basis of the derived regression results, dominated the current random selection approach. To capture 25, 50, or 75% of the population with poor process standards (i.e., audit outcome of rejected), respectively, only 8, 20, or 47% of the population had to be sampled based on a risk-based selection approach. Milk quality information can thus be used to preselect high-risk farms to be audited more frequently. Copyright © 2014 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Safety analyses for high-temperature reactors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mueller, A.

1978-01-01

The safety evaluation of HTRs may be based on the three methods presented here: The licensing procedure, the probabilistic risk analysis, and the damage extent analysis. Thereby all safety aspects - from normal operation to the extreme (hypothetical) accidents - of the HTR are covered. The analyses within the licensing procedure of the HTR-1160 have shown that for normal operation and for the design basis accidents the radiation exposures remain clearly below the maximum permissible levels as prescribed by the radiation protection ordinance, so that no real hazard for the population will avise from them. (orig./RW) [de

Meta-analyses: does long-term PPI use increase the risk of gastric premalignant lesions?

Science.gov (United States)

Eslami, Layli; Nasseri-Moghaddam, Siavosh

2013-08-01

Proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) are the most effective agents available for reducing acid secretion. They are used for medical treatment of various acid-related disorders. PPIs are used extensively and for extended periods of time in gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD). A troublesome issue regarding maintenance therapy has been the propensity of PPI-treated patients to develop chronic atrophic gastritis while on therapy that could theoretically lead to an increased incidence of gastric cancer. In addition, animal studies have raised concern for development of enterochromaffin-like cell hyperplasia and carcinoid tumors in the stomachs of mice receiving high dose PPIs. Current literature does not provide a clear-cut conclusion on the subject and the reports are sometimes contradictory. Therefore, this study is a systematic review of the available literature to address the safety of long-term PPI use and its relation to the development of malignant/premalignant gastric lesions. A literature search of biomedical databases was performed. The reference lists of retrieved articles were reviewed to further identify relevant trials. We hand-searched the abstracts of the American Digestive Disease Week (DDW) and the United European Gastroenterology Week (UEGW) from 1995 to 2013. Only randomized clinical trials (RCTs) that used PPIs as the primary treatment for at least six month versus no treatment, placebo, antacid or anti-reflux surgery (ARS) were included. Two reviewers independently extracted the data. Discrepancies in the interpretation were resolved by consensus. All analyses of outcomes were based on the intention-to-treat principle. We performed statistical analysis using Review Manager software. The effect measure of choice was relative risk (RR) for dichotomous data. Six RCTs with a total of 785 patients met the inclusion criteria. Two multicenter RCTs compared Esomeprazole with placebo. One RCT compared omeprazole with ARS. Two RCTs compared omeprazole with

Laboratory-based and office-based risk scores and charts to predict 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease in 182 countries

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ueda, Peter; Woodward, Mark; Lu, Yuan

2017-01-01

BACKGROUND: Worldwide implementation of risk-based cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention requires risk prediction tools that are contemporarily recalibrated for the target country and can be used where laboratory measurements are unavailable. We present two cardiovascular risk scores, with and ...

Risks of CIN 2+, CIN 3+, and Cancer by Cytology and Human Papillomavirus Status: The Foundation of Risk-Based Cervical Screening Guidelines.

Science.gov (United States)

Demarco, Maria; Lorey, Thomas S; Fetterman, Barbara; Cheung, Li C; Guido, Richard S; Wentzensen, Nicolas; Kinney, Walter K; Poitras, Nancy E; Befano, Brian; Castle, Philip E; Schiffman, Mark

2017-10-01

The next round of the American Society for Colposcopy and Cervical Pathology (ASCCP)-sponsored cervical cancer screening and management guidelines will recommend clinical actions based on risk, rather than test-based algorithms. This article gives preliminary risk estimates for the screening setting, showing combinations of the 2 most important predictors, human papillomavirus (HPV) status and cytology result. Among 1,262,713 women aged 25 to 77 years co-tested with HC2 (Qiagen) and cytology at Kaiser Permanente Northern California, we estimated 0-5-year cumulative risk of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) 2+, CIN 3+, and cancer for combinations of cytology (negative for intraepithelial lesion or malignancy [NILM], atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance [ASC-US], low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion [LSIL], atypical squamous cells cannot exclude HSIL [ASC-H], high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion [HSIL], atypical glandular cells [AGC]) and HPV status. Ninety percent of screened women had HPV-negative NILM and an extremely low risk of subsequent cancer. Five-year risks of CIN 3+ were lower after HPV negativity (0.12%) than after NILM (0.25%). Among HPV-negative women, 5-year risks for CIN 3+ were 0.10% for NILM, 0.44% for ASC-US, 1.8% for LSIL, 3.0% for ASC-H, 1.2% for AGC, and 29% for HSIL+ cytology (which was very rare). Among HPV-positive women, 5-year risks were 4.0% for NILM, 6.8% for ASC-US, 6.1% for LSIL, 28% for ASC-H, 30% for AGC, and 50% for HSIL+ cytology. As a foundation for the next guidelines revision, we confirmed with additional precision the risk estimates previously reported for combinations of HPV and cytology. Future analyses will estimate risks for women being followed in colposcopy clinic and posttreatment and will consider the role of risk modifiers such as age, HPV vaccine status, HPV type, and screening and treatment history.

Trends and risk factors of stillbirths and neonatal deaths in Eastern Uganda (1982-2011): a cross-sectional, population-based study.

Science.gov (United States)

Kujala, Sanni; Waiswa, Peter; Kadobera, Daniel; Akuze, Joseph; Pariyo, George; Hanson, Claudia

2017-01-01

To identify mortality trends and risk factors associated with stillbirths and neonatal deaths 1982-2011. Population-based cross-sectional study based on reported pregnancy history in Iganga-Mayuge Health and Demographic Surveillance Site (HDSS) in Uganda. A pregnancy history survey was conducted among women aged 15-49 years living in the HDSS during May-July 2011 (n = 10 540). Time trends were analysed with cubic splines and linear regression. Potential risk factors were examined with multilevel logistic regression with adjusted odds ratios (AOR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). 34 073 births from 1982 to 2011 were analysed. The annual rate of decrease was 0.9% for stillbirths and 1.8% for neonatal mortality. Stillbirths were associated with several risk factors: multiple births (AOR 2.57, CI 1.66-3.99), previous adverse outcome (AOR 6.16, CI 4.26-8.88) and grand multiparity among 35- to 49-year-olds (AOR 1.97, CI 1.32-2.89). Neonatal deaths were associated with multiple births (AOR 6.16, CI 4.80-7.92) and advanced maternal age linked with parity of 1-4 (AOR 2.34, CI 1.28-4.25) and grand multiparity (AOR 1.44, CI 1.09-1.90). Education, marital status and household wealth were not associated with the outcomes. The slow decline in mortality rates and easily identifiable risk factors calls for improving quality of care at birth and a rethinking of how to address obstetric risks, potentially a revival of the risk approach in antenatal care. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

FY01 Supplemental Science and Performance Analyses, Volume 1: Scientific Bases and Analyses, Part 1 and 2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dobson, David

2001-01-01

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is considering the possible recommendation of a site at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, for development as a geologic repository for the disposal of high-level radioactive waste and spent nuclear fuel. To facilitate public review and comment, in May 2001 the DOE released the Yucca Mountain Science and Engineering Report (S and ER) (DOE 2001 [DIRS 153849]), which presents technical information supporting the consideration of the possible site recommendation. The report summarizes the results of more than 20 years of scientific and engineering studies. A decision to recommend the site has not been made: the DOE has provided the S and ER and its supporting documents as an aid to the public in formulating comments on the possible recommendation. When the S and ER (DOE 2001 [DIRS 153849]) was released, the DOE acknowledged that technical and scientific analyses of the site were ongoing. Therefore, the DOE noted in the Federal Register Notice accompanying the report (66 FR 23 013 [DIRS 155009], p. 2) that additional technical information would be released before the dates, locations, and times for public hearings on the possible recommendation were announced. This information includes: (1) the results of additional technical studies of a potential repository at Yucca Mountain, contained in this FY01 Supplemental Science and Performance Analyses: Vol. 1, Scientific Bases and Analyses; and FY01 Supplemental Science and Performance Analyses: Vol. 2, Performance Analyses (McNeish 2001 [DIRS 155023]) (collectively referred to as the SSPA) and (2) a preliminary evaluation of the Yucca Mountain site's preclosure and postclosure performance against the DOE's proposed site suitability guidelines (10 CFR Part 963 [64 FR 67054] [DIRS 124754]). By making the large amount of information developed on Yucca Mountain available in stages, the DOE intends to provide the public and interested parties with time to review the available materials and to formulate

How distributed processing produces false negatives in voxel-based lesion-deficit analyses.

Science.gov (United States)

Gajardo-Vidal, Andrea; Lorca-Puls, Diego L; Crinion, Jennifer T; White, Jitrachote; Seghier, Mohamed L; Leff, Alex P; Hope, Thomas M H; Ludersdorfer, Philipp; Green, David W; Bowman, Howard; Price, Cathy J

2018-07-01

In this study, we hypothesized that if the same deficit can be caused by damage to one or another part of a distributed neural system, then voxel-based analyses might miss critical lesion sites because preservation of each site will not be consistently associated with preserved function. The first part of our investigation used voxel-based multiple regression analyses of data from 359 right-handed stroke survivors to identify brain regions where lesion load is associated with picture naming abilities after factoring out variance related to object recognition, semantics and speech articulation so as to focus on deficits arising at the word retrieval level. A highly significant lesion-deficit relationship was identified in left temporal and frontal/premotor regions. Post-hoc analyses showed that damage to either of these sites caused the deficit of interest in less than half the affected patients (76/162 = 47%). After excluding all patients with damage to one or both of the identified regions, our second analysis revealed a new region, in the anterior part of the left putamen, which had not been previously detected because many patients had the deficit of interest after temporal or frontal damage that preserved the left putamen. The results illustrate how (i) false negative results arise when the same deficit can be caused by different lesion sites; (ii) some of the missed effects can be unveiled by adopting an iterative approach that systematically excludes patients with lesions to the areas identified in previous analyses, (iii) statistically significant voxel-based lesion-deficit mappings can be driven by a subset of patients; (iv) focal lesions to the identified regions are needed to determine whether the deficit of interest is the consequence of focal damage or much more extensive damage that includes the identified region; and, finally, (v) univariate voxel-based lesion-deficit mappings cannot, in isolation, be used to predict outcome in other patients

Effectiveness of selective risk based screening for Gestational Diabetes (GDM) in Malaysia: A retrospective cohort study based on the National Obstetric Registry (NOR) of Malaysia.

Science.gov (United States)

Muniswaran, G; Soelar, S A; Karalasingam, S D; Bujang, M A; Jeganathan, R; Suharjono, H

2017-02-01

Gestational diabetes (GDM) has significant maternal and foetal implications. screening allows active interventions which significantly improves pregnancy outcomes. Despite World Health Organization (WHO), FIGO and National Institute of clinical Excellence (NIcE) recommendations for universal screening especially among high risk population; Malaysia currently adopts a selective risk based screening for GDM. the objective is to audit the effectiveness of the current practice of selective risk based screening in detection of GDM in Malaysia. this is a retrospective cohort study based on the National Obstetric Registry (NOR) which comprises of 14 major tertiary hospitals in Malaysia. the study period was from 1st January 2011 till 31st December 2012 and a total of 22,044 patients with GDM were analysed. Logistic regression analysis was used to calculate the crude odd ratio. the incidence of GDM in Malaysia is 8.4%. Maternal age of ≥25, booking bMI ≥27kg/m2, booking weight ≥80kg and previous hypertension are non-significant risk of developing GDM in Malaysia. Parity 5 and more was only associated with an odds-ratio of 1.02 (95% confidence Interval: 0.90-1.17) as compared to parity below 5. the association of women with previous stillbirth with GDM was not significant. current risk based screening for GDM based on maternal age, booking bMI, weight and hypertension is inappropriate. An ideal screening tool should precede disease complications, which is the novel objective of screening. Universal screening for GDM in Malaysia may be a more accurate measure, especially with regards to reducing maternal and foetal complications.

Toward risk-based control of nuclear power plant configurations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Samanta, P.K.; Veseley, W.E.; Kim, I.S.

1992-01-01

This paper presents an evaluation of the configuration risks associated with the operation of a nuclear power plant and the approaches to control these risks using risk-based configuration control considerations. In that context, the actual and maximum potential configuration risks at a plant are analyzed and the alternative types criteria for a risk-based configuration control systems are described. The risk-based configuration calculations which are studied here focus on the core-melt frequency impacts from given plant configurations, the configurations which cause large core-melt frequency increases can be identified and controlled. The duration time in which the configuration can exist can then be limited or the core-melt frequency level associated with the configuration can be reduced by various actions. Futhermore, maintenances and tests can be scheduled to avoid the configurations which cause large core-melt frequency increases. Present technical specifications do not control many of these configurations which can cause large core-melt frequency increases but instead focus on many risk-unimportant allowed outage times. Hence, risk-based configuration management can be effectively used to reduce core-melt frequency associated risks at a plant and at the same time can provide flexibility in plant operation. The alternative strategies for controlling the core-melt frequency and other risk contributions include: (1) controlling the increased risk level which is associated with the configuration; (2) controlling the individual configuration risk which is associated with a given duration of a configuration; (3) controlling the time period configuration risk from configurations which occur in a time period. (orig.)

A combined approach to investigate the toxicity of an industrial landfill's leachate: Chemical analyses, risk assessment and in vitro assays

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baderna, D.; Maggioni, S.; Boriani, E.; Gemma, S.; Molteni, M.; Lombardo, A.; Colombo, A.; Bordonali, S.; Rotella, G.; Lodi, M.; Benfenati, E.

2011-01-01

Solid wastes constitute an important and emerging problem. Landfills are still one of the most common ways to manage waste disposal. The risk assessment of pollutants from landfills is becoming a major environmental issue in Europe, due to the large number of sites and to the importance of groundwater protection. Furthermore, there is lack of knowledge for the environmental, ecotoxicological and toxicological characteristics of most contaminants contained into landfill leacheates. Understanding leachate composition and creating an integrated strategy for risk assessment are currently needed to correctly face the landfill issues and to make projections on the long-term impacts of a landfill, with particular attention to the estimation of possible adverse effects on human health and ecosystem. In the present study, we propose an integrated strategy to evaluate the toxicity of the leachate using chemical analyses, risk assessment guidelines and in vitro assays using the hepatoma HepG2 cells as a model. The approach was applied on a real case study: an industrial waste landfill in northern Italy for which data on the presence of leachate contaminants are available from the last 11 years. Results from our ecological risk models suggest important toxic effects on freshwater fish and small rodents, mainly due to ammonia and inorganic constituents. Our results from in vitro data show an inhibition of cell proliferation by leachate at low doses and cytotoxic effect at high doses after 48 h of exposure. - Research highlights: → We study the toxicity of leachate from a non-hazardous industrial waste landfill. → We perform chemical analyses, risk assessments and in vitro assays on HepG2 cells. → Risk models suggest toxic effects due to ammonia and inorganic constituents. → In vitro assays show that leachate inhibits cell proliferation at low doses. → Leachate can induce cytotoxic effects on HepG2 cells at high doses.

A Knowledge-Based Model of Audit Risk

OpenAIRE

Dhar, Vasant; Lewis, Barry; Peters, James

1988-01-01

Within the academic and professional auditing communities, there has been growing concern about how to accurately assess the various risks associated with performing an audit. These risks are difficult to conceptualize in terms of numeric estimates. This article discusses the development of a prototype computational model (computer program) that assesses one of the major audit risks -- inherent risk. This program bases most of its inferencing activities on a qualitative model of a typical bus...

Flood-risk mapping: contributions towards an enhanced assessment of extreme events and associated risks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

B. Büchele

2006-01-01

Full Text Available Currently, a shift from classical flood protection as engineering task towards integrated flood risk management concepts can be observed. In this context, a more consequent consideration of extreme events which exceed the design event of flood protection structures and failure scenarios such as dike breaches have to be investigated. Therefore, this study aims to enhance existing methods for hazard and risk assessment for extreme events and is divided into three parts. In the first part, a regionalization approach for flood peak discharges was further developed and substantiated, especially regarding recurrence intervals of 200 to 10 000 years and a large number of small ungauged catchments. Model comparisons show that more confidence in such flood estimates for ungauged areas and very long recurrence intervals may be given as implied by statistical analysis alone. The hydraulic simulation in the second part is oriented towards hazard mapping and risk analyses covering the whole spectrum of relevant flood events. As the hydrodynamic simulation is directly coupled with a GIS, the results can be easily processed as local inundation depths for spatial risk analyses. For this, a new GIS-based software tool was developed, being presented in the third part, which enables estimations of the direct flood damage to single buildings or areas based on different established stage-damage functions. Furthermore, a new multifactorial approach for damage estimation is presented, aiming at the improvement of damage estimation on local scale by considering factors like building quality, contamination and precautionary measures. The methods and results from this study form the base for comprehensive risk analyses and flood management strategies.

Quantitative risk trends deriving from PSA-based event analyses. Analysis of results from U.S.NRC's accident sequence precursor program

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Watanabe, Norio

2004-01-01

The United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (U.S.NRC) has been carrying out the Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) Program to identify and categorize precursors to potential severe core damage accident sequences using the probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) technique. The ASP Program has identified a lot of risk significant events as precursors that occurred at U.S. nuclear power plants. Although the results from the ASP Program include valuable information that could be useful for obtaining and characterizing risk significant insights and for monitoring risk trends in nuclear power industry, there are only a few attempts to determine and develop the trends using the ASP results. The present study examines and discusses quantitative risk trends for the industry level, using two indicators, that is, the occurrence frequency of precursors and the annual core damage probability, deriving from the results of the ASP analysis. It is shown that the core damage risk at U.S. nuclear power plants has been lowered and the likelihood of risk significant events has been remarkably decreasing. As well, the present study demonstrates that two risk indicators used here can provide quantitative information useful for examining and monitoring the risk trends and/or risk characteristics in nuclear power industry. (author)

Probabilistic risk analysis and terrorism risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Ezell, Barry Charles; Bennett, Steven P; von Winterfeldt, Detlof; Sokolowski, John; Collins, Andrew J

2010-04-01

Since the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, and the subsequent establishment of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS), considerable efforts have been made to estimate the risks of terrorism and the cost effectiveness of security policies to reduce these risks. DHS, industry, and the academic risk analysis communities have all invested heavily in the development of tools and approaches that can assist decisionmakers in effectively allocating limited resources across the vast array of potential investments that could mitigate risks from terrorism and other threats to the homeland. Decisionmakers demand models, analyses, and decision support that are useful for this task and based on the state of the art. Since terrorism risk analysis is new, no single method is likely to meet this challenge. In this article we explore a number of existing and potential approaches for terrorism risk analysis, focusing particularly on recent discussions regarding the applicability of probabilistic and decision analytic approaches to bioterrorism risks and the Bioterrorism Risk Assessment methodology used by the DHS and criticized by the National Academies and others.

A Versatile Software Package for Inter-subject Correlation Based Analyses of fMRI

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jukka-Pekka eKauppi

2014-01-01

Full Text Available In the inter-subject correlation (ISC based analysis of the functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI data, the extent of shared processing across subjects during the experiment is determined by calculating correlation coefficients between the fMRI time series of the subjects in the corresponding brain locations. This implies that ISC can be used to analyze fMRI data without explicitly modelling the stimulus and thus ISC is a potential method to analyze fMRI data acquired under complex naturalistic stimuli. Despite of the suitability of ISC based approach to analyze complex fMRI data, no generic software tools have been made available for this purpose, limiting a widespread use of ISC based analysis techniques among neuroimaging community. In this paper, we present a graphical user interface (GUI based software package, ISC Toolbox, implemented in Matlab for computing various ISC based analyses. Many advanced computations such as comparison of ISCs between different stimuli, time window ISC, and inter-subject phase synchronization are supported by the toolbox. The analyses are coupled with re-sampling based statistical inference. The ISC based analyses are data and computation intensive and the ISC toolbox is equipped with mechanisms to execute the parallel computations in a cluster environment automatically and with an automatic detection of the cluster environment in use. Currently, SGE-based (Oracle Grid Engine, Son of a Grid Engine or Open Grid Scheduler and Slurm environments are supported. In this paper, we present a detailed account on the methods behind the ISC Toolbox, the implementation of the toolbox and demonstrate the possible use of the toolbox by summarizing selected example applications. We also report the computation time experiments both using a single desktop computer and two grid environments demonstrating that parallelization effectively reduces the computing time. The ISC Toolbox is available in https://code.google.com/p/isc-toolbox/.

A versatile software package for inter-subject correlation based analyses of fMRI.

Science.gov (United States)

Kauppi, Jukka-Pekka; Pajula, Juha; Tohka, Jussi

2014-01-01

In the inter-subject correlation (ISC) based analysis of the functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data, the extent of shared processing across subjects during the experiment is determined by calculating correlation coefficients between the fMRI time series of the subjects in the corresponding brain locations. This implies that ISC can be used to analyze fMRI data without explicitly modeling the stimulus and thus ISC is a potential method to analyze fMRI data acquired under complex naturalistic stimuli. Despite of the suitability of ISC based approach to analyze complex fMRI data, no generic software tools have been made available for this purpose, limiting a widespread use of ISC based analysis techniques among neuroimaging community. In this paper, we present a graphical user interface (GUI) based software package, ISC Toolbox, implemented in Matlab for computing various ISC based analyses. Many advanced computations such as comparison of ISCs between different stimuli, time window ISC, and inter-subject phase synchronization are supported by the toolbox. The analyses are coupled with re-sampling based statistical inference. The ISC based analyses are data and computation intensive and the ISC toolbox is equipped with mechanisms to execute the parallel computations in a cluster environment automatically and with an automatic detection of the cluster environment in use. Currently, SGE-based (Oracle Grid Engine, Son of a Grid Engine, or Open Grid Scheduler) and Slurm environments are supported. In this paper, we present a detailed account on the methods behind the ISC Toolbox, the implementation of the toolbox and demonstrate the possible use of the toolbox by summarizing selected example applications. We also report the computation time experiments both using a single desktop computer and two grid environments demonstrating that parallelization effectively reduces the computing time. The ISC Toolbox is available in https://code.google.com/p/isc-toolbox/

Risk based rulemaking and design - Proceed with caution

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zachariadis, Panos; Psaraftis, Harilaos N.; Kontovas, Christos A.

2007-01-01

The trend towards a risk based regulatory framework at IMO and within classification societies is expanding while some voices claim that a full ship risk based scantlings design approach can be immediately implementable. This paper attempts to clarify some widely used, but confusing to many, noti...

Implementing risk-informed life-cycle design

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hill, Ralph S.

2009-01-01

This paper describes a design process based on risk-informed probabilistic design methodologies that cover a facility's life-cycle from start of conceptual design through decontamination and decommissioning. The concept embodies use of probabilistic risk assessments to establish target reliabilities for facility systems and components. The target reliabilities are used for system based code margin exchange and performance simulation analyses to optimize design over all phases (design, construction, operation and decommissioning) of a facility's life-cycle. System based code margin exchange reduces excessive level of construction margins for passive components to appropriate levels resulting in a more flexible structure of codes and standards that improves facility reliability and cost. System and subsystem simulation analyses determine the optimum combination of initial system and component construction reliability, maintenance frequency, and inspection frequency for both active and passive components. The paper includes a description of these risk-informed life-cycle design processes, a summary of work being done, and a discussion of additional work needed to implement the process.

12 CFR Appendix B to Part 3 - Risk-Based Capital Guidelines; Market Risk Adjustment

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

...) The bank must have a risk control unit that reports directly to senior management and is independent... management systems at least annually. (c) Market risk factors. The bank's internal model must use risk.... Section 4. Internal Models (a) General. For risk-based capital purposes, a bank subject to this appendix...

Ontology-based specification, identification and analysis of perioperative risks.

Science.gov (United States)

Uciteli, Alexandr; Neumann, Juliane; Tahar, Kais; Saleh, Kutaiba; Stucke, Stephan; Faulbrück-Röhr, Sebastian; Kaeding, André; Specht, Martin; Schmidt, Tobias; Neumuth, Thomas; Besting, Andreas; Stegemann, Dominik; Portheine, Frank; Herre, Heinrich

2017-09-06

Medical personnel in hospitals often works under great physical and mental strain. In medical decision-making, errors can never be completely ruled out. Several studies have shown that between 50 and 60% of adverse events could have been avoided through better organization, more attention or more effective security procedures. Critical situations especially arise during interdisciplinary collaboration and the use of complex medical technology, for example during surgical interventions and in perioperative settings (the period of time before, during and after surgical intervention). In this paper, we present an ontology and an ontology-based software system, which can identify risks across medical processes and supports the avoidance of errors in particular in the perioperative setting. We developed a practicable definition of the risk notion, which is easily understandable by the medical staff and is usable for the software tools. Based on this definition, we developed a Risk Identification Ontology (RIO) and used it for the specification and the identification of perioperative risks. An agent system was developed, which gathers risk-relevant data during the whole perioperative treatment process from various sources and provides it for risk identification and analysis in a centralized fashion. The results of such an analysis are provided to the medical personnel in form of context-sensitive hints and alerts. For the identification of the ontologically specified risks, we developed an ontology-based software module, called Ontology-based Risk Detector (OntoRiDe). About 20 risks relating to cochlear implantation (CI) have already been implemented. Comprehensive testing has indicated the correctness of the data acquisition, risk identification and analysis components, as well as the web-based visualization of results.

Features of Computer-Based Decision Aids: Systematic Review, Thematic Synthesis, and Meta-Analyses

Science.gov (United States)

Krömker, Dörthe; Meguerditchian, Ari N; Tamblyn, Robyn

2016-01-01

Background Patient information and education, such as decision aids, are gradually moving toward online, computer-based environments. Considerable research has been conducted to guide content and presentation of decision aids. However, given the relatively new shift to computer-based support, little attention has been given to how multimedia and interactivity can improve upon paper-based decision aids. Objective The first objective of this review was to summarize published literature into a proposed classification of features that have been integrated into computer-based decision aids. Building on this classification, the second objective was to assess whether integration of specific features was associated with higher-quality decision making. Methods Relevant studies were located by searching MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL, and CENTRAL databases. The review identified studies that evaluated computer-based decision aids for adults faced with preference-sensitive medical decisions and reported quality of decision-making outcomes. A thematic synthesis was conducted to develop the classification of features. Subsequently, meta-analyses were conducted based on standardized mean differences (SMD) from randomized controlled trials (RCTs) that reported knowledge or decisional conflict. Further subgroup analyses compared pooled SMDs for decision aids that incorporated a specific feature to other computer-based decision aids that did not incorporate the feature, to assess whether specific features improved quality of decision making. Results Of 3541 unique publications, 58 studies met the target criteria and were included in the thematic synthesis. The synthesis identified six features: content control, tailoring, patient narratives, explicit values clarification, feedback, and social support. A subset of 26 RCTs from the thematic synthesis was used to conduct the meta-analyses. As expected, computer-based decision aids performed better than usual care or alternative aids; however

Features of Computer-Based Decision Aids: Systematic Review, Thematic Synthesis, and Meta-Analyses.

Science.gov (United States)

Syrowatka, Ania; Krömker, Dörthe; Meguerditchian, Ari N; Tamblyn, Robyn

2016-01-26

Patient information and education, such as decision aids, are gradually moving toward online, computer-based environments. Considerable research has been conducted to guide content and presentation of decision aids. However, given the relatively new shift to computer-based support, little attention has been given to how multimedia and interactivity can improve upon paper-based decision aids. The first objective of this review was to summarize published literature into a proposed classification of features that have been integrated into computer-based decision aids. Building on this classification, the second objective was to assess whether integration of specific features was associated with higher-quality decision making. Relevant studies were located by searching MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL, and CENTRAL databases. The review identified studies that evaluated computer-based decision aids for adults faced with preference-sensitive medical decisions and reported quality of decision-making outcomes. A thematic synthesis was conducted to develop the classification of features. Subsequently, meta-analyses were conducted based on standardized mean differences (SMD) from randomized controlled trials (RCTs) that reported knowledge or decisional conflict. Further subgroup analyses compared pooled SMDs for decision aids that incorporated a specific feature to other computer-based decision aids that did not incorporate the feature, to assess whether specific features improved quality of decision making. Of 3541 unique publications, 58 studies met the target criteria and were included in the thematic synthesis. The synthesis identified six features: content control, tailoring, patient narratives, explicit values clarification, feedback, and social support. A subset of 26 RCTs from the thematic synthesis was used to conduct the meta-analyses. As expected, computer-based decision aids performed better than usual care or alternative aids; however, some features performed better than

A Risk Metric Assessment of Scenario-Based Market Risk Measures for Volatility and Risk Estimation: Evidence from Emerging Markets

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sitima Innocent

2015-03-01

Full Text Available The study evaluated the sensitivity of the Value- at- Risk (VaR and Expected Shortfalls (ES with respect to portfolio allocation in emerging markets with an index portfolio of a developed market. This study utilised different models for VaR and ES techniques using various scenario-based models such as Covariance Methods, Historical Simulation and the GARCH (1, 1 for the predictive ability of these models in both relatively stable market conditions and extreme market conditions. The results showed that Expected Shortfall has less risk tolerance than VaR based on the same scenario-based market risk measures

Development of innovative methods for risk assessment in high-rise construction based on clustering of risk factors

Science.gov (United States)

Okolelova, Ella; Shibaeva, Marina; Shalnev, Oleg

2018-03-01

The article analyses risks in high-rise construction in terms of investment value with account of the maximum probable loss in case of risk event. The authors scrutinized the risks of high-rise construction in regions with various geographic, climatic and socio-economic conditions that may influence the project environment. Risk classification is presented in general terms, that includes aggregated characteristics of risks being common for many regions. Cluster analysis tools, that allow considering generalized groups of risk depending on their qualitative and quantitative features, were used in order to model the influence of the risk factors on the implementation of investment project. For convenience of further calculations, each type of risk is assigned a separate code with the number of the cluster and the subtype of risk. This approach and the coding of risk factors makes it possible to build a risk matrix, which greatly facilitates the task of determining the degree of impact of risks. The authors clarified and expanded the concept of the price risk, which is defined as the expected value of the event, 105 which extends the capabilities of the model, allows estimating an interval of the probability of occurrence and also using other probabilistic methods of calculation.

Heart diseases and long-term risk of dementia and Alzheimer's disease: a population-based CAIDE study.

Science.gov (United States)

Rusanen, Minna; Kivipelto, Miia; Levälahti, Esko; Laatikainen, Tiina; Tuomilehto, Jaakko; Soininen, Hilkka; Ngandu, Tiia

2014-01-01

Many cardiovascular risk factors are shown to increase the risk of dementia and Alzheimer's disease (AD), but the impact of heart disease on later development of dementia is still unclear. The aim of the study was to investigate the long-term risk of dementia and Alzheimer's disease (AD) related to midlife and late-life atrial fibrillation (AF), heart failure (HF), and coronary artery disease (CAD) in a population-based study with a follow-up of over 25 years. Cardiovascular Risk Factors, Aging and Dementia (CAIDE) study includes 2000 participants who were randomly selected from four separate, population-based samples originally studied in midlife (1972, 1977, 1982, or 1987). Re-examinations were carried out in 1998 and 2005-2008. Altogether 1,510 (75.5%) persons participated in at least one re-examination, and 127 (8.4%) persons were diagnosed with dementia (of which 102 had AD). AF in late-life was an independent risk factor for dementia (HR 2.61, 95% CI 1.05-6.47; p = 0.039) and AD (HR 2.54, 95% CI 1.04-6.16; p = 0.040) in the fully adjusted analyses. The association was even stronger among the apolipoprotein E (APOE) ε4 non-carriers. Late-life HF, but not CAD, tended to increase the risks as well. Heart diseases diagnosed at midlife did not increase the risk of later dementia and AD. Late-life heart diseases increase the subsequent risk of dementia and AD. Prevention and effective treatment of heart diseases may be important also from the perspective of brain health and cognitive functioning.

Risk-based technical specifications program: Site interview results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Andre, G.R.; Baker, A.J.; Johnson, R.L.

1991-08-01

The Electric Power Research Institute and Pacific Gas and Electric Company are sponsoring a program directed at improving Technical Specifications using risk-based methods. The major objectives of the program are to develop risk-based approaches to improve Technical Specifications and to develop an Interactive Risk Advisor (IRA) prototype. The IRA is envisioned as an interactive system that is available to plant personnel to assist in controlling plant operation. Use of an IRA is viewed as a method to improve plant availability while maintaining or improving plant safety. In support of the program, interviews were conducted at several PWR and BWR plant sites, to elicit opinions and information concerning risk-based approaches to Technical Specifications and IRA requirements. This report presents the results of these interviews, including the functional requirements of an IRA. 2 refs., 6 figs., 2 tabs

Chapter No.4. Safety analyses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2002-01-01

for NPP V-1 Bohunice and on review of the impact of the modelling of selected components to the results of calculation safety analysis (a sensitivity study for NPP Mochovce). In 2001 UJD joined a new European project Alternative Approaches to the Safety Performance Indicators. The project is aimed at the information collecting and determining of approaches and recommendations for implementation of the risk oriented indicators, identification of the impact of the safety culture level and organisational culture on safety and applying of indicators to the needs of regulators and operators. In frame of the PHARE project UJD participated in the task focused on severe accident mitigation for nuclear power plants with VVER-440/V213 units. The main results of the analyses of nuclear power plants responses to severe accidents were summarised and the state of their analytical base performed in the past was evaluated within the project. Possible severe accident mitigation and preventative measures were proposed and their applicability for the nuclear power plants with VVER-440/V213 was investigated. The obtained results will be used in assessment activities and accident management of UJD. UJD has been involved also in EVITA project which makes a part of the 5 th EC Framework Programme. The project aims at validation of the European computer code ASTEC dedicated for severe accidents modelling. In 2001 the ASTEC computer code was tested on different platforms. The results of the testing are summarised in the technical report of EC issued in September 2001. Further activities within this project were focused on performing of selected accident scenarios analyses and comparison of the obtained results with the analyses realised with the help of other computer codes. The work on the project will continue in 2002. In 2001 a groundwork on establishing the Centre for Nuclear Safety in Central and Eastern Europe (CENS), the seat of which is going to be in Bratislava, has continued. The

Software-based risk stratification of pulmonary adenocarcinomas manifesting as pure ground glass nodules on computed tomography

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nemec, Ursula [Vienna General Hospital, Medical University of Vienna, Department of Biomedical Imaging and Image-guided Therapy, Vienna (Austria); Heidinger, Benedikt H.; Bankier, Alexander A. [Harvard Medical School, Radiology, Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, Boston, MA (United States); Anderson, Kevin R.; VanderLaan, Paul A. [Harvard Medical School, Pathology, Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, Boston, MA (United States); Westmore, Michael S. [Imbio, Delafield, WI (United States)

2018-01-15

To assess the performance of the ''Computer-Aided Nodule Assessment and Risk Yield'' (CANARY) software in the differentiation and risk assessment of histological subtypes of lung adenocarcinomas manifesting as pure ground glass nodules on computed tomography (CT). 64 surgically resected and histologically proven adenocarcinomas manifesting as pure ground-glass nodules on CT were assessed using CANARY software, which classifies voxel-densities into three risk components (low, intermediate, and high risk). Differences in risk components between histological adenocarcinoma subtypes were analysed. To determine the optimal threshold reflecting the presence of an invasive focus, sensitivity, specificity, negative predictive value, and positive predictive value were calculated. 28/64 (44%) were adenocarcinomas in situ (AIS); 26/64 (41%) were minimally invasive adenocarcinomas (MIA); and 10/64 (16%) were invasive ACs (IAC). The software showed significant differences in risk components between histological subtypes (P<0.001-0.003). A relative volume of 45% or less of low-risk components was associated with histological invasiveness (specificity 100%, positive predictive value 100%). CANARY-based risk assessment of ACs manifesting as pure ground glass nodules on CT allows the differentiation of their histological subtypes. A threshold of 45% of low-risk components reflects invasiveness in these groups. (orig.)

Software-based risk stratification of pulmonary adenocarcinomas manifesting as pure ground glass nodules on computed tomography

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nemec, Ursula; Heidinger, Benedikt H.; Bankier, Alexander A.; Anderson, Kevin R.; VanderLaan, Paul A.; Westmore, Michael S.

2018-01-01

To assess the performance of the ''Computer-Aided Nodule Assessment and Risk Yield'' (CANARY) software in the differentiation and risk assessment of histological subtypes of lung adenocarcinomas manifesting as pure ground glass nodules on computed tomography (CT). 64 surgically resected and histologically proven adenocarcinomas manifesting as pure ground-glass nodules on CT were assessed using CANARY software, which classifies voxel-densities into three risk components (low, intermediate, and high risk). Differences in risk components between histological adenocarcinoma subtypes were analysed. To determine the optimal threshold reflecting the presence of an invasive focus, sensitivity, specificity, negative predictive value, and positive predictive value were calculated. 28/64 (44%) were adenocarcinomas in situ (AIS); 26/64 (41%) were minimally invasive adenocarcinomas (MIA); and 10/64 (16%) were invasive ACs (IAC). The software showed significant differences in risk components between histological subtypes (P<0.001-0.003). A relative volume of 45% or less of low-risk components was associated with histological invasiveness (specificity 100%, positive predictive value 100%). CANARY-based risk assessment of ACs manifesting as pure ground glass nodules on CT allows the differentiation of their histological subtypes. A threshold of 45% of low-risk components reflects invasiveness in these groups. (orig.)

Risk factors for metabolic syndrome after liver transplantation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thoefner, Line Buch; Rostved, Andreas Arendtsen; Pommergaard, Hans-Christian

2018-01-01

syndrome after liver transplantation. METHODS: The databases Medline and Scopus were searched for observational studies evaluating prevalence and risk factors for metabolic syndrome after liver transplantation. Meta-analyses were performed based on odds ratios (ORs) from multivariable analyses...

Interruption of antiretroviral therapy and risk of cardiovascular disease in persons with HIV-1 infection: exploratory analyses from the SMART trial

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Phillips, Andrew N; Carr, Andrew; Neuhaus, Jacquie

2008-01-01

BACKGROUND: The SMART trial found a raised risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) events in patients undergoing CD4+ T cell-count guided intermittent antiretroviral therapy (ART) compared with patients on continuous ART. Exploratory analyses were performed to better understand the reasons for this ...

Risk based regulation: a convenient concept for legislation and regulation in the field of technical risks?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Seiler, J.H.

1998-01-01

Legislation and regulation concerning risk activities are traditionally based on deterministic safety measures. This may lead to inefficient results: sometimes the law requires safety measures which are - from an economic viewpoint - not justified because of their poor cost-effectiveness; sometimes it does not require safety measures although they would be very efficient. The risk based regulation approach wants to make the law more efficient and to get more safety at less costs. Legislation and regulation should be based on terms of risk rather than on deterministic rules. Risk should be expressed in quantitative terms and risk regulation should be based on the cost-effectiveness of safety measures. Thus a most efficient (in the sense of the economic analysis of the law) strategy for safety and environmental law could be established. The approach is economically reasonable and theoretically convincing. Its practical implementation however raises a lot of technical and legal questions. The project 'Risk Based Regulation' (1996-1999), sponsored by the Swiss National Fund for Scientific Research, intends to evaluate the practical feasibility of the approach from a technical and a legal view. It contains a general part which describes the risk based regulation approach and its legal and technical questions, case studies which try to practically implement the risk based regulation approach; the case studies are: storage and management of explosives in the army, storage and management of explosives for non-military purposes, safety at work, accident prevention in the non-professional field (mainly road accidents), fire protection, transportation of dangerous goods, waste disposal: traditional waste, waste disposal: radioactive waste, nuclear energy (reactor safety), a synthesis with recommendations for the future legislation and regulation in the field of technical risks. The paper presents the project and its preliminary results. (author)

Including investment risk in large-scale power market models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lemming, Jørgen Kjærgaard; Meibom, P.

2003-01-01

Long-term energy market models can be used to examine investments in production technologies, however, with market liberalisation it is crucial that such models include investment risks and investor behaviour. This paper analyses how the effect of investment risk on production technology selection...... can be included in large-scale partial equilibrium models of the power market. The analyses are divided into a part about risk measures appropriate for power market investors and a more technical part about the combination of a risk-adjustment model and a partial-equilibrium model. To illustrate...... the analyses quantitatively, a framework based on an iterative interaction between the equilibrium model and a separate risk-adjustment module was constructed. To illustrate the features of the proposed modelling approach we examined how uncertainty in demand and variable costs affects the optimal choice...

From volatility to value: analysing and managing financial and performance risk in energy savings projects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mills, Evan; Kromer, Steve; Weiss, Gary; Mathew, Paul A.

2006-01-01

Many energy-related investments are made without a clear financial understanding of their values, risks, and volatilities. In the face of this uncertainty, the investor-such as a building owner or an energy service company-will often choose to implement only the most certain and thus limited energy-efficiency measures. Conversely, commodities traders and other sophisticated investors accustomed to evaluating investments on a value, risk, and volatility basis often overlook energy-efficiency investments because risk and volatility information are not provided. Fortunately, energy-efficiency investments easily lend themselves to such analysis using tools similar to those applied to supply side risk management. Accurate and robust analysis demands a high level of understanding of the physical aspects of energy-efficiency, which enables the translation of physical performance data into the language of investment. With a risk management analysis framework in place, the two groups-energy-efficiency experts and investment decision-makers-can exchange the information they need to expand investment in demand-side energy projects. In this article, we first present the case for financial risk analysis in energy efficiency in the buildings sector. We then describe techniques and examples of how to identify, quantify, and manage risk. Finally, we describe emerging market-based opportunities in risk management for energy efficiency

76 FR 13902 - Fair Credit Reporting Risk-Based Pricing Regulations

Science.gov (United States)

2011-03-15

... TRADE COMMISSION 16 CFR Parts 640 and 698 RIN R411009 Fair Credit Reporting Risk-Based Pricing... respective risk-based pricing rules to require disclosure of credit scores and information relating to credit scores in risk-based pricing notices if a credit score of the consumer is used in setting the material...

Cognitive function is associated with risk aversion in community-based older persons.

Science.gov (United States)

Boyle, Patricia A; Yu, Lei; Buchman, Aron S; Laibson, David I; Bennett, David A

2011-09-11

Emerging data from younger and middle-aged persons suggest that cognitive ability is negatively associated with risk aversion, but this association has not been studied among older persons who are at high risk of experiencing loss of cognitive function. Using data from 369 community-dwelling older persons without dementia from the Rush Memory and Aging Project, an ongoing longitudinal epidemiologic study of aging, we examined the correlates of risk aversion and tested the hypothesis that cognition is negatively associated with risk aversion. Global cognition and five specific cognitive abilities were measured via detailed cognitive testing, and risk aversion was measured using standard behavioral economics questions in which participants were asked to choose between a certain monetary payment ($15) versus a gamble in which they could gain more than $15 or gain nothing; potential gamble gains ranged from $21.79 to $151.19 with the gain amounts varied randomly over questions. We first examined the bivariate associations of age, education, sex, income and cognition with risk aversion. Next, we examined the associations between cognition and risk aversion via mixed models adjusted for age, sex, education, and income. Finally, we conducted sensitivity analyses to ensure that our results were not driven by persons with preclinical cognitive impairment. In bivariate analyses, sex, education, income and global cognition were associated with risk aversion. However, in a mixed effect model, only sex (estimate = -1.49, standard error (SE) = 0.39, p risk aversion. Thus, a lower level of global cognitive function and female sex were associated with greater risk aversion. Moreover, performance on four out of the five cognitive domains was negatively related to risk aversion (i.e., semantic memory, episodic memory, working memory, and perceptual speed); performance on visuospatial abilities was not. A lower level of cognitive ability and female sex are associated with greater

Alternative approaches to risk-based technical specifications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Atefi, B.; Gallagher, D.W.; Liner, R.T.; Lofgren, E.V.

1987-01-01

Four alternative risk-based approaches to Technical Specifications are identified. These are: a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) oriented approach; a reliability goal-oriented approach; an approach based on configuration control; a data-oriented approach. Based on preliminary results, the PRA-oriented approach, which has been developed further than the other approaches, seems to offer a logical, quantitative basis for setting Allowed Outage Times (AOTs) and Surveillance Test Intervals (STIs) for some plant components and systems. The most attractive feature of this approach is that it directly links the AOTs and STIs with the risk associated with the operation of the plant. This would focus the plant operator's and the regulatory agency's attention on the most risk-significant components of the plant. A series of practical issues related to the level of detail and content of the plant PRAs, requirements for the review of these PRAs, and monitoring cf the plant's performance by the regulatory agency must be resolved before the approach could be implemented. Future efforts will examine the other three approaches and their practicality before firm conclusions are drawn regarding the viability of any of these approaches

Study on institutionalization of risk-informed performance-based regulation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, M. G.; Hong, S. Y.; Seo, M. R. [Korea Electric Power Research Institute, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)

2003-02-15

In this study, for the institutionalization of risk informed and performance based regulation in Korea, the latest technical movements of overseas countries are examined and reviewed. And the issues that was found when license change petition using risk information was submitted in Korean regulatory body are reviewed. Based on these review, the applicable areas to domestic situation will be found and proposed. This study can contribute to setting up the proper direction for the institutionalization of risk informed and performance based regulation.

Effectiveness of a two-step population-based osteoporosis screening program using FRAX: the randomized Risk-stratified Osteoporosis Strategy Evaluation (ROSE) study.

Science.gov (United States)

Rubin, K H; Rothmann, M J; Holmberg, T; Høiberg, M; Möller, S; Barkmann, R; Glüer, C C; Hermann, A P; Bech, M; Gram, J; Brixen, K

2018-03-01

The Risk-stratified Osteoporosis Strategy Evaluation (ROSE) study investigated the effectiveness of a two-step screening program for osteoporosis in women. We found no overall reduction in fractures from systematic screening compared to the current case-finding strategy. The group of moderate- to high-risk women, who accepted the invitation to DXA, seemed to benefit from the program. The purpose of the ROSE study was to investigate the effectiveness of a two-step population-based osteoporosis screening program using the Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) derived from a self-administered questionnaire to select women for DXA scan. After the scanning, standard osteoporosis management according to Danish national guidelines was followed. Participants were randomized to either screening or control group, and randomization was stratified according to age and area of residence. Inclusion took place from February 2010 to November 2011. Participants received a self-administered questionnaire, and women in the screening group with a FRAX score ≥ 15% (major osteoporotic fractures) were invited to a DXA scan. Primary outcome was incident clinical fractures. Intention-to-treat analysis and two per-protocol analyses were performed. A total of 3416 fractures were observed during a median follow-up of 5 years. No significant differences were found in the intention-to-treat analyses with 34,229 women included aged 65-80 years. The per-protocol analyses showed a risk reduction in the group that underwent DXA scanning compared to women in the control group with a FRAX ≥ 15%, in regard to major osteoporotic fractures, hip fractures, and all fractures. The risk reduction was most pronounced for hip fractures (adjusted SHR 0.741, p = 0.007). Compared to an office-based case-finding strategy, the two-step systematic screening strategy had no overall effect on fracture incidence. The two-step strategy seemed, however, to be beneficial in the group of women who were

Model-Based Recursive Partitioning for Subgroup Analyses.

Science.gov (United States)

Seibold, Heidi; Zeileis, Achim; Hothorn, Torsten

2016-05-01

The identification of patient subgroups with differential treatment effects is the first step towards individualised treatments. A current draft guideline by the EMA discusses potentials and problems in subgroup analyses and formulated challenges to the development of appropriate statistical procedures for the data-driven identification of patient subgroups. We introduce model-based recursive partitioning as a procedure for the automated detection of patient subgroups that are identifiable by predictive factors. The method starts with a model for the overall treatment effect as defined for the primary analysis in the study protocol and uses measures for detecting parameter instabilities in this treatment effect. The procedure produces a segmented model with differential treatment parameters corresponding to each patient subgroup. The subgroups are linked to predictive factors by means of a decision tree. The method is applied to the search for subgroups of patients suffering from amyotrophic lateral sclerosis that differ with respect to their Riluzole treatment effect, the only currently approved drug for this disease.

Blended Risk Approach in Applying PSA Models to Risk-Based Regulations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dimitrijevic, V. B.; Chapman, J. R.

1996-01-01

In this paper, the authors will discuss a modern approach in applying PSA models in risk-based regulation. The Blended Risk Approach is a combination of traditional and probabilistic processes. It is receiving increased attention in different industries in the U. S. and abroad. The use of the deterministic regulations and standards provides a proven and well understood basis on which to assess and communicate the impact of change to plant design and operation. Incorporation of traditional values into risk evaluation is working very well in the blended approach. This approach is very application specific. It includes multiple risk attributes, qualitative risk analysis, and basic deterministic principles. In blending deterministic and probabilistic principles, this approach ensures that the objectives of the traditional defense-in-depth concept are not compromised and the design basis of the plant is explicitly considered. (author)

Procedures for the external event core damage frequency analyses for NUREG-1150

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bohn, M.P.; Lambright, J.A.

1990-11-01

This report presents methods which can be used to perform the assessment of risk due to external events at nuclear power plants. These methods were used to perform the external events risk assessments for the Surry and Peach Bottom nuclear power plants as part of the NRC-sponsored NUREG-1150 risk assessments. These methods apply to the full range of hazards such as earthquakes, fires, floods, etc. which are collectively known as external events. The methods described in this report have been developed under NRC sponsorship and represent, in many cases, both advancements and simplifications over techniques that have been used in past years. They also include the most up-to-date data bases on equipment seismic fragilities, fire occurrence frequencies and fire damageability thresholds. The methods described here are based on making full utilization of the power plant systems logic models developed in the internal events analyses. By making full use of the internal events models one obtains an external event analysis that is consistent both in nomenclature and in level of detail with the internal events analyses, and in addition, automatically includes all the appropriate random and tests/maintenance unavailabilities as appropriate. 50 refs., 9 figs., 11 tabs

A unified framework for risk and vulnerability analysis covering both safety and security

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aven, Terje

2007-01-01

Recently, we have seen several attempts to establish adequate risk and vulnerability analyses tools and related management frameworks dealing not only with accidental events but also security problems. These attempts have been based on different analysis approaches and using alternative building blocks. In this paper, we discuss some of these and show how a unified framework for such analyses and management tasks can be developed. The framework is based on the use of probability as a measure of uncertainty, as seen through the eyes of the assessor, and define risk as the combination of possible consequences and related uncertainties. Risk and vulnerability characterizations are introduced incorporating ideas both from vulnerability analyses literature as well as from the risk classification scheme introduced by Renn and Klinke

Risk-based remediation of polluted sites: A critical perspective.

Science.gov (United States)

Kuppusamy, Saranya; Venkateswarlu, Kadiyala; Megharaj, Mallavarapu; Mayilswami, Srinithi; Lee, Yong Bok

2017-11-01

Sites contaminated with chemical pollutants represent a growing challenge, and remediation of such lands is of international concern. Risk-based land management (RBLM) is an emerging approach that integrates risk assessment practices with more traditional site-specific investigations and remediation activities. Developing countries are yet to adopt RBLM strategies for remediation. RBLM is considered to be practical, scientifically defensible and cost-efficient. However, it is inherently limited by: firstly, the accuracy of risk assessment models used; secondly, ramifications of the fact that they are more likely to leave contamination in place; and thirdly, uncertainties involved and having to consider the total concentrations of all contaminants in soils that overestimate the potential risks from exposure to the contaminants. Consideration of contaminant bioavailability as the underlying basis for risk assessment and setting remediation goals of those contaminated lands that pose a risk to environmental and human health may lead to the development of a more sophisticated risk-based approach. However, employing the bioavailability concept in RBLM has not been extensively studied and/or legalized. This review highlights the extent of global land contamination, and the concept of risk-based assessment and management of contaminated sites including its advantages and disadvantages. Furthermore, the concept of bioavailability-based RBLM strategy has been proposed, and the challenges of RBLM and the priority areas for future research are summarized. Thus, the present review may help achieve a better understanding and successful implementation of a sustainable bioavailability-based RBLM strategy. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Unilateral Vocal Fold Paralysis and Risk of Pneumonia: A Nationwide Population-Based Cohort Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Tsai, Ming-Shao; Yang, Yao-Hsu; Liu, Chia-Yen; Lin, Meng-Hung; Chang, Geng-He; Tsai, Yao-Te; Li, Hsueh-Yu; Tsai, Ying-Huang; Hsu, Cheng-Ming

2018-05-01

Objective To investigate pneumonia risk among patients with unilateral vocal fold paralysis (UVFP). Study Design Retrospective population-based cohort study. Setting This study used data from the National Health Insurance Research Database of Taiwan, a nationwide population-based database. Subjects and Methods A total of 419 patients newly diagnosed with UVFP between January 1, 1997, and December 31, 2013, were identified from the Longitudinal Health Insurance Database 2000, a nationally representative database of 1 million randomly selected patients. Moreover, 1676 patients without UVFP were matched to patients with UVFP at a 1:4 ratio based on age, sex, socioeconomic status, urbanization level, and site-specific cancers. Patients were followed up until death or the end of the study period (December 31, 2013). The primary outcome was the occurrence of pneumonia. Results The cumulative incidence of pneumonia was significantly higher for patients with UVFP than those without UFVP ( P < .001). The adjusted Cox proportional hazard model showed that UVFP was significantly associated with a higher incidence of pneumonia (hazard ratio, 1.97; 95% CI, 1.35-2.86; P < .001). Subgroup analyses demonstrated that UVFP was an independent risk factor of pneumonia for 4 subgroups: young (18-50 years), older (≥51 years), male, and cancer. Conclusion This is the first nationwide population-based cohort study to investigate the association between UVFP and pneumonia. The findings indicate that UVFP is an independent risk factor of pneumonia. Given the study results, physicians should be aware of the potential for pneumonia occurrence following UVFP.

A risk-based method for planning of bus–subway corridor evacuation under hybrid uncertainties

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lv, Y.; Yan, X.D.; Sun, W.; Gao, Z.Y.

2015-01-01

Emergencies involved in a bus–subway corridor system are associated with many processes and factors with social and economic implications. These processes and factors and their interactions are related to a variety of uncertainties. In this study, an interval chance-constrained integer programming (EICI) method is developed in response to such challenges for bus–subway corridor based evacuation planning. The method couples a chance-constrained programming with an interval integer programming model framework. It can thus deal with interval uncertainties that cannot be quantified with specified probability distribution functions. Meanwhile, it can also reflect stochastic features of traffic flow capacity, and thereby help examine the related violation risk of constraint. The EICI method is applied to a subway incident based evacuation case study. It is solved through an interactive algorithm that does not lead to more complicated intermediate submodels and has a relatively low computational requirement. A number of decision alternatives could be directly generated based on results from the EICI method. It is indicated that the solutions cannot only help decision makers identify desired population evacuation and vehicle dispatch schemes under hybrid uncertainties, but also provide bases for in-depth analyses of tradeoffs among evacuation plans, total evacuation time, and constraint-violation risks. - Highlights: • An inexact model is developed for the bus–subway corridor evacuation management. • It tackles stochastic and interval uncertainties in an integer programming problem. • It can examine violation risk of the roadway flow capacity related constraint. • It will help identify evacuation schemes under hybrid uncertainties

Risk analysis of Odelouca cofferdam

OpenAIRE

Pimenta, L.; Caldeira, L.; Maranha das Neves, E.

2009-01-01

In this paper we present the risk analysis of Odelouca Cofferdam, using an event tree analysis. The initializing events, failure modes and analysed limit states are discussed based on an influence diagram. The constructed event trees and their interpretation are presented. The obtained risk values are represented in an FN plot superimposed to the acceptability and tolerability risk limits proposed for Portuguese dams. Initially, particular emphasis is placed on the main characteristic...

Engineering design and exergy analyses for combustion gas turbine based power generation system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sue, D.-C.; Chuang, C.-C.

2004-01-01

This paper presents the engineering design and theoretical exergetic analyses of the plant for combustion gas turbine based power generation systems. Exergy analysis is performed based on the first and second laws of thermodynamics for power generation systems. The results show the exergy analyses for a steam cycle system predict the plant efficiency more precisely. The plant efficiency for partial load operation is lower than full load operation. Increasing the pinch points will decrease the combined cycle plant efficiency. The engineering design is based on inlet air-cooling and natural gas preheating for increasing the net power output and efficiency. To evaluate the energy utilization, one combined cycle unit and one cogeneration system, consisting of gas turbine generators, heat recovery steam generators, one steam turbine generator with steam extracted for process have been analyzed. The analytical results are used for engineering design and component selection

Risk-based management of invading plant disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Hyatt-Twynam, Samuel R; Parnell, Stephen; Stutt, Richard O J H; Gottwald, Tim R; Gilligan, Christopher A; Cunniffe, Nik J

2017-05-01

Effective control of plant disease remains a key challenge. Eradication attempts often involve removal of host plants within a certain radius of detection, targeting asymptomatic infection. Here we develop and test potentially more effective, epidemiologically motivated, control strategies, using a mathematical model previously fitted to the spread of citrus canker in Florida. We test risk-based control, which preferentially removes hosts expected to cause a high number of infections in the remaining host population. Removals then depend on past patterns of pathogen spread and host removal, which might be nontransparent to affected stakeholders. This motivates a variable radius strategy, which approximates risk-based control via removal radii that vary by location, but which are fixed in advance of any epidemic. Risk-based control outperforms variable radius control, which in turn outperforms constant radius removal. This result is robust to changes in disease spread parameters and initial patterns of susceptible host plants. However, efficiency degrades if epidemiological parameters are incorrectly characterised. Risk-based control including additional epidemiology can be used to improve disease management, but it requires good prior knowledge for optimal performance. This focuses attention on gaining maximal information from past epidemics, on understanding model transferability between locations and on adaptive management strategies that change over time. © 2017 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2017 New Phytologist Trust.

Analysing task design and students' responses to context-based problems through different analytical frameworks

Science.gov (United States)

Broman, Karolina; Bernholt, Sascha; Parchmann, Ilka

2015-05-01

Background:Context-based learning approaches are used to enhance students' interest in, and knowledge about, science. According to different empirical studies, students' interest is improved by applying these more non-conventional approaches, while effects on learning outcomes are less coherent. Hence, further insights are needed into the structure of context-based problems in comparison to traditional problems, and into students' problem-solving strategies. Therefore, a suitable framework is necessary, both for the analysis of tasks and strategies. Purpose:The aim of this paper is to explore traditional and context-based tasks as well as students' responses to exemplary tasks to identify a suitable framework for future design and analyses of context-based problems. The paper discusses different established frameworks and applies the Higher-Order Cognitive Skills/Lower-Order Cognitive Skills (HOCS/LOCS) taxonomy and the Model of Hierarchical Complexity in Chemistry (MHC-C) to analyse traditional tasks and students' responses. Sample:Upper secondary students (n=236) at the Natural Science Programme, i.e. possible future scientists, are investigated to explore learning outcomes when they solve chemistry tasks, both more conventional as well as context-based chemistry problems. Design and methods:A typical chemistry examination test has been analysed, first the test items in themselves (n=36), and thereafter 236 students' responses to one representative context-based problem. Content analysis using HOCS/LOCS and MHC-C frameworks has been applied to analyse both quantitative and qualitative data, allowing us to describe different problem-solving strategies. Results:The empirical results show that both frameworks are suitable to identify students' strategies, mainly focusing on recall of memorized facts when solving chemistry test items. Almost all test items were also assessing lower order thinking. The combination of frameworks with the chemistry syllabus has been

Risk of prostate and bladder cancers in patients with spinal cord injury: a population-based cohort study.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Wen-Yuan; Sun, Li-Min; Lin, Cheng-Li; Liang, Ji-An; Chang, Yen-Jung; Sung, Fung-Chang; Kao, Chia-Hung

2014-01-01

To evaluate the risk of prostate and bladder cancers in patients with spinal cord injury (SCI). We used data obtained from the National Health Insurance system of Taiwan for this study. The SCI cohort contained 54,401 patients with SCI, and each patient was randomly frequency matched with 4 people from the general population (without SCI) based on age, sex, and index date. Incidence rates, SCI cohort to non-SCI cohort rate ratios, and hazard ratios were measured to evaluate the cancer risks. Patients with SCI showed a significantly lower risk of developing prostate cancer compared with subjects without SCI (adjusted hazard ratio = 0.73; 95% confidence interval = 0.59, 0.90), after accounting for the competing risk of death. No significant difference in the risk of bladder cancer emerged between the SCI and control groups. Further analyses found a higher spinal level of SCI tended to predict a lower risk for prostate cancer. Patients with SCI incurred a lower risk for prostate cancer compared with people without SCI. The risk for bladder cancer did not differ between people with or without SCI. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Impact of cardiovascular risk factors on medical expenditure: evidence from epidemiological studies analysing data on health checkups and medical insurance.

Science.gov (United States)

Nakamura, Koshi

2014-01-01

Concerns have increasingly been raised about the medical economic burden in Japan, of which approximately 20% is attributable to cardiovascular disease, including coronary heart disease and stroke. Because the management of risk factors is essential for the prevention of cardiovascular disease, it is important to understand the relationship between cardiovascular risk factors and medical expenditure in the Japanese population. However, only a few Japanese epidemiological studies analysing data on health checkups and medical insurance have provided evidence on this topic. Patients with cardiovascular risk factors, including obesity, hypertension, and diabetes, may incur medical expenditures through treatment of the risk factors themselves and through procedures for associated diseases that usually require hospitalization and sometimes result in death. Untreated risk factors may cause medical expenditure surges, mainly due to long-term hospitalization, more often than risk factors preventively treated by medication. On an individual patient level, medical expenditures increase with the number of concomitant cardiovascular risk factors. For single risk factors, personal medical expenditure may increase with the severity of that factor. However, on a population level, the medical economic burden attributable to cardiovascular risk factors results largely from a single, particularly prevalent risk factor, especially from mildly-to-moderately abnormal levels of the factor. Therefore, cardiovascular risk factors require management on the basis of both a cost-effective strategy of treating high-risk patients and a population strategy for reducing both the ill health and medical economic burdens that result from cardiovascular disease.

Cloud-based bioinformatics workflow platform for large-scale next-generation sequencing analyses.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Bo; Madduri, Ravi K; Sotomayor, Borja; Chard, Kyle; Lacinski, Lukasz; Dave, Utpal J; Li, Jianqiang; Liu, Chunchen; Foster, Ian T

2014-06-01

Due to the upcoming data deluge of genome data, the need for storing and processing large-scale genome data, easy access to biomedical analyses tools, efficient data sharing and retrieval has presented significant challenges. The variability in data volume results in variable computing and storage requirements, therefore biomedical researchers are pursuing more reliable, dynamic and convenient methods for conducting sequencing analyses. This paper proposes a Cloud-based bioinformatics workflow platform for large-scale next-generation sequencing analyses, which enables reliable and highly scalable execution of sequencing analyses workflows in a fully automated manner. Our platform extends the existing Galaxy workflow system by adding data management capabilities for transferring large quantities of data efficiently and reliably (via Globus Transfer), domain-specific analyses tools preconfigured for immediate use by researchers (via user-specific tools integration), automatic deployment on Cloud for on-demand resource allocation and pay-as-you-go pricing (via Globus Provision), a Cloud provisioning tool for auto-scaling (via HTCondor scheduler), and the support for validating the correctness of workflows (via semantic verification tools). Two bioinformatics workflow use cases as well as performance evaluation are presented to validate the feasibility of the proposed approach. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk perception versus seismic risk: An introduction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cubeddu, Francesca

2015-01-01

A seismic event generally has consequences on the social relationships, economy and culture of the impacted territory. As Mary Douglas quotes, a change into the social perception of risk as consequence of an earthquake may have effects on the lifestyle of the local community. The above mentioned statement is the starting point of this article. illustrating the difference between peril and risk is the second point. According to the Aristotelian theory of categories, risk can be considered as a human characteristic depending on social and cultural factors. Risk is here intended as a social category and cannot be de facto reported as a statistical or stochastic function based on a mathematical formula, as long assumed in the past. This approach, then, requires a deep revision. In this sense, and following the concept of risk perception, seismic risk is analysed in this article in terms of impacts, precautionary measures, risk assessment and management. Knowledge of this topic cannot be intended as a simple philosophical exercise, since right on awareness depend risk reduction, humans and goods too [it

Risk-based decisionmaking in the DOE: Challenges and status

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Henry, C.J.; Alchowiak, J.; Moses, M.

1995-01-01

The primary mission of the Environmental Management Program is to protect human health and the environment, the first goal of which must be, to address urgent risks and threats. Another is to provide for a safe workplace. Without credible risk assessments and good risk management practices, the central environmental goals cannot be met. Principles for risk analysis which include principles for risk assessment, management, communication, and priority setting were adopted. As recommended, Environmental Management is using risk-based decision making in its budget process and in the implementation of its program. The challenges presented in using a risk-based Decision making process are to integrate risk assessment methods and cultural and social values so as to produce meaningful priorities. The different laws and regulations governing the Department define risk differently in implementing activities to protect human health and the environment, therefore, assumptions and judgements in risk analysis vary. Currently, the Environmental Management Program is developing and improving a framework to incorporate risk into the budget process and to link the budget, compliance requirements and risk reduction/pollution prevention activities

Risk-based decisionmaking in the DOE: Challenges and status

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Henry, C.J.; Alchowiak, J.; Moses, M. [Dept. of Energy, Washington, DC (United States)] [and others

1995-12-31

The primary mission of the Environmental Management Program is to protect human health and the environment, the first goal of which must be, to address urgent risks and threats. Another is to provide for a safe workplace. Without credible risk assessments and good risk management practices, the central environmental goals cannot be met. Principles for risk analysis which include principles for risk assessment, management, communication, and priority setting were adopted. As recommended, Environmental Management is using risk-based decision making in its budget process and in the implementation of its program. The challenges presented in using a risk-based Decision making process are to integrate risk assessment methods and cultural and social values so as to produce meaningful priorities. The different laws and regulations governing the Department define risk differently in implementing activities to protect human health and the environment, therefore, assumptions and judgements in risk analysis vary. Currently, the Environmental Management Program is developing and improving a framework to incorporate risk into the budget process and to link the budget, compliance requirements and risk reduction/pollution prevention activities.

Risk assessment and model for community-based construction ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

It, therefore, becomes necessary to systematically manage uncertainty in community-based construction in order to increase the likelihood of meeting project objectives using necessary risk management strategies. Risk management, which is an iterative process due to the dynamic nature of many risks, follows three main ...

Operational Satellite-based Surface Oil Analyses (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Streett, D.; Warren, C.

2010-12-01

During the Deepwater Horizon spill, NOAA imagery analysts in the Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB) issued more than 300 near-real-time satellite-based oil spill analyses. These analyses were used by the oil spill response community for planning, issuing surface oil trajectories and tasking assets (e.g., oil containment booms, skimmers, overflights). SAB analysts used both Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) and high resolution visible/near IR multispectral satellite imagery as well as a variety of ancillary datasets. Satellite imagery used included ENVISAT ASAR (ESA), TerraSAR-X (DLR), Cosmo-Skymed (ASI), ALOS (JAXA), Radarsat (MDA), ENVISAT MERIS (ESA), SPOT (SPOT Image Corp.), Aster (NASA), MODIS (NASA), and AVHRR (NOAA). Ancillary datasets included ocean current information, wind information, location of natural oil seeps and a variety of in situ oil observations. The analyses were available as jpegs, pdfs, shapefiles and through Google, KML files and also available on a variety of websites including Geoplatform and ERMA. From the very first analysis issued just 5 hours after the rig sank through the final analysis issued in August, the complete archive is still publicly available on the NOAA/NESDIS website http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/MPS/deepwater.html SAB personnel also served as the Deepwater Horizon International Disaster Charter Project Manager (at the official request of the USGS). The Project Manager’s primary responsibility was to acquire and oversee the processing and dissemination of satellite data generously donated by numerous private companies and nations in support of the oil spill response including some of the imagery described above. SAB has begun to address a number of goals that will improve our routine oil spill response as well as help assure that we are ready for the next spill of national significance. We hope to (1) secure a steady, abundant and timely stream of suitable satellite imagery even in the absence of large-scale emergencies such as

Population-based absolute risk estimation with survey data

Science.gov (United States)

Kovalchik, Stephanie A.; Pfeiffer, Ruth M.

2013-01-01

Absolute risk is the probability that a cause-specific event occurs in a given time interval in the presence of competing events. We present methods to estimate population-based absolute risk from a complex survey cohort that can accommodate multiple exposure-specific competing risks. The hazard function for each event type consists of an individualized relative risk multiplied by a baseline hazard function, which is modeled nonparametrically or parametrically with a piecewise exponential model. An influence method is used to derive a Taylor-linearized variance estimate for the absolute risk estimates. We introduce novel measures of the cause-specific influences that can guide modeling choices for the competing event components of the model. To illustrate our methodology, we build and validate cause-specific absolute risk models for cardiovascular and cancer deaths using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Our applications demonstrate the usefulness of survey-based risk prediction models for predicting health outcomes and quantifying the potential impact of disease prevention programs at the population level. PMID:23686614

Big data based fraud risk management at Alibaba

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jidong Chen

2015-12-01

Full Text Available With development of mobile internet and finance, fraud risk comes in all shapes and sizes. This paper is to introduce the Fraud Risk Management at Alibaba under big data. Alibaba has built a fraud risk monitoring and management system based on real-time big data processing and intelligent risk models. It captures fraud signals directly from huge amount data of user behaviors and network, analyzes them in real-time using machine learning, and accurately predicts the bad users and transactions. To extend the fraud risk prevention ability to external customers, Alibaba also built up a big data based fraud prevention product called AntBuckler. AntBuckler aims to identify and prevent all flavors of malicious behaviors with flexibility and intelligence for online merchants and banks. By combining large amount data of Alibaba and customers', AntBuckler uses the RAIN score engine to quantify risk levels of users or transactions for fraud prevention. It also has a user-friendly visualization UI with risk scores, top reasons and fraud connections.

Insurability of Cyber Risk: An Empirical Analysis

OpenAIRE

Biener, Christian; Eling, Martin; Wirfs, Jan Hendrik

2015-01-01

This paper discusses the adequacy of insurance for managing cyber risk. To this end, we extract 994 cases of cyber losses from an operational risk database and analyse their statistical properties. Based on the empirical results and recent literature, we investigate the insurability of cyber risk by systematically reviewing the set of criteria introduced by Berliner (1982). Our findings emphasise the distinct characteristics of cyber risks compared with other operational risks and bring to li...

Cyber Risk Management for Critical Infrastructure: A Risk Analysis Model and Three Case Studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Paté-Cornell, M-Elisabeth; Kuypers, Marshall; Smith, Matthew; Keller, Philip

2018-02-01

Managing cyber security in an organization involves allocating the protection budget across a spectrum of possible options. This requires assessing the benefits and the costs of these options. The risk analyses presented here are statistical when relevant data are available, and system-based for high-consequence events that have not happened yet. This article presents, first, a general probabilistic risk analysis framework for cyber security in an organization to be specified. It then describes three examples of forward-looking analyses motivated by recent cyber attacks. The first one is the statistical analysis of an actual database, extended at the upper end of the loss distribution by a Bayesian analysis of possible, high-consequence attack scenarios that may happen in the future. The second is a systems analysis of cyber risks for a smart, connected electric grid, showing that there is an optimal level of connectivity. The third is an analysis of sequential decisions to upgrade the software of an existing cyber security system or to adopt a new one to stay ahead of adversaries trying to find their way in. The results are distributions of losses to cyber attacks, with and without some considered countermeasures in support of risk management decisions based both on past data and anticipated incidents. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Risk-based audit selection of dairy farms

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Asseldonk, van M.A.P.M.; Velthuis, A.G.J.

2014-01-01

Dairy farms are audited in the Netherlands on numerous process standards. Each farm is audited once every 2 years. Increasing demands for cost-effectiveness in farm audits can be met by introducing risk-based principles. This implies targeting subpopulations with a higher risk of poor process

LIFETIME LUNG CANCER RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH INDOOR RADON EXPOSURE BASED ON VARIOUS RADON RISK MODELS FOR CANADIAN POPULATION.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Jing

2017-04-01

This study calculates and compares the lifetime lung cancer risks associated with indoor radon exposure based on well-known risk models in the literature; two risk models are from joint studies among miners and the other three models were developed from pooling studies on residential radon exposure from China, Europe and North America respectively. The aim of this article is to make clear that the various models are mathematical descriptions of epidemiologically observed real risks in different environmental settings. The risk from exposure to indoor radon is real and it is normal that variations could exist among different risk models even when they were applied to the same dataset. The results show that lifetime risk estimates vary significantly between the various risk models considered here: the model based on the European residential data provides the lowest risk estimates, while models based on the European miners and Chinese residential pooling with complete dosimetry give the highest values. The lifetime risk estimates based on the EPA/BEIR-VI model lie within this range and agree reasonably well with the averages of risk estimates from the five risk models considered in this study. © Crown copyright 2016.

Cognitive function is associated with risk aversion in community-based older persons

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Buchman Aron S

2011-09-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Emerging data from younger and middle-aged persons suggest that cognitive ability is negatively associated with risk aversion, but this association has not been studied among older persons who are at high risk of experiencing loss of cognitive function. Methods Using data from 369 community-dwelling older persons without dementia from the Rush Memory and Aging Project, an ongoing longitudinal epidemiologic study of aging, we examined the correlates of risk aversion and tested the hypothesis that cognition is negatively associated with risk aversion. Global cognition and five specific cognitive abilities were measured via detailed cognitive testing, and risk aversion was measured using standard behavioral economics questions in which participants were asked to choose between a certain monetary payment ($15 versus a gamble in which they could gain more than $15 or gain nothing; potential gamble gains ranged from $21.79 to $151.19 with the gain amounts varied randomly over questions. We first examined the bivariate associations of age, education, sex, income and cognition with risk aversion. Next, we examined the associations between cognition and risk aversion via mixed models adjusted for age, sex, education, and income. Finally, we conducted sensitivity analyses to ensure that our results were not driven by persons with preclinical cognitive impairment. Results In bivariate analyses, sex, education, income and global cognition were associated with risk aversion. However, in a mixed effect model, only sex (estimate = -1.49, standard error (SE = 0.39, p i.e., semantic memory, episodic memory, working memory, and perceptual speed; performance on visuospatial abilities was not. Conclusion A lower level of cognitive ability and female sex are associated with greater risk aversion in advanced age.

Assessing the risk of pelvic and para-aortic nodal involvement in apparent early-stage ovarian cancer: A predictors- and nomogram-based analyses.

Science.gov (United States)

Bogani, Giorgio; Tagliabue, Elena; Ditto, Antonino; Signorelli, Mauro; Martinelli, Fabio; Casarin, Jvan; Chiappa, Valentina; Dondi, Giulia; Leone Roberti Maggiore, Umberto; Scaffa, Cono; Borghi, Chiara; Montanelli, Luca; Lorusso, Domenica; Raspagliesi, Francesco

2017-10-01

To estimate the prevalence of lymph node involvement in early-stage epithelial ovarian cancer in order to assess the prognostic value of lymph node dissection. Data of consecutive patients undergoing staging for early-stage epithelial ovarian cancer were retrospectively evaluated. Logistic regression and a nomogram-based analysis were used to assess the risk of lymph node involvement. Overall, 290 patients were included. All patients had lymph node dissection including pelvic and para-aortic lymphadenectomy. Forty-two (14.5%) patients were upstaged due to lymph node metastatic disease. Pelvic and para-aortic nodal metastases were observed in 22 (7.6%) and 42 (14.5%) patients. Lymph node involvement was observed in 18/95 (18.9%), 1/37 (2.7%), 4/29 (13.8%), 11/63 (17.4%), 3/41 (7.3%) and 5/24 (20.8%) patients with high-grade serous, low-grade-serous, endometrioid G1, endometrioid G2&3, clear cell and undifferentiated, histology, respectively (p=0.12, Chi-square test). We observed that high-grade serous histology was associated with an increased risk of pelvic node involvement; while, histology rather than low-grade serous and bilateral tumors were independently associated with para-aortic lymph node involvement (p<0.05). Nomograms displaying the risk of nodal involvement in the pelvic and para-aortic areas were built. High-grade serous histology and bilateral tumors are the main characteristics suggesting lymph node positivity. Our data suggested that high-grade serous and bilateral early-stage epithelial ovarian cancer are at high risk of having disease harboring in the lymphatic tissues of both pelvic and para-aortic area. After receiving external validation, our data will help to identify patients deserving comprehensive retroperitoneal staging. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

PENGARUH PELAKSANAAN RISK BASED INTERNAL AUDITING TERHADAP PENCEGAHAN FRAUD

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rozmita Dewi Yuniarti Rozali

2015-12-01

Full Text Available This study aims to determine the effect of implementation of risk based internal auditing on fraud prevention on internal audit Inspection Office Bank BRI Bandung Region. The sample used by 18 internal auditors in Inspection Office of Bank BRI Bandung Region saturated sampling method. Based on calculation of simple regression analysis obtained result that every increase of implementation of risk based internal auditing (X will lead to increase fraud prevention (Y. It shows that there is a positive influence between the implementation of risk based internal auditing on fraud prevention on the internal audit of Inspection Office of Bank BRI Bandung Region.

How and for whom does web-based acceptance and commitment therapy work? Mediation and moderation analyses of web-based ACT for depressive symptoms.

Science.gov (United States)

Pots, Wendy T M; Trompetter, Hester R; Schreurs, Karlein M G; Bohlmeijer, Ernst T

2016-05-23

Acceptance and Commitment Therapy (ACT) has been demonstrated to be effective in reducing depressive symptoms. However, little is known how and for whom therapeutic change occurs, specifically in web-based interventions. This study focuses on the mediators, moderators and predictors of change during a web-based ACT intervention. Data from 236 adults from the general population with mild to moderate depressive symptoms, randomized to either web-based ACT (n = 82) or one of two control conditions (web-based Expressive Writing (EW; n = 67) and a waiting list (n = 87)), were analysed. Single and multiple mediation analyses, and exploratory linear regression analyses were performed using PROCESS and linear regression analyses, to examine mediators, moderators and predictors on pre- to post- and follow-up treatment change of depressive symptoms. The treatment effect of ACT versus the waiting list was mediated by psychological flexibility and two mindfulness facets. The treatment effect of ACT versus EW was not significantly mediated. The moderator analyses demonstrated that the effects of web-based ACT did not vary according to baseline patient characteristics when compared to both control groups. However, higher baseline depressive symptoms and positive mental health and lower baseline anxiety were identified as predictors of outcome across all conditions. Similar results are found for follow-up. The findings of this study corroborate the evidence that psychological flexibility and mindfulness are distinct process mechanisms that mediate the effects of web-based ACT intervention. The results indicate that there are no restrictions to the allocation of web-based ACT intervention and that web-based ACT can work for different subpopulations. Netherlands Trial Register NTR2736 . Registered 6 February 2011.

Risk-based classification system of nanomaterials

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tervonen, Tommi; Linkov, Igor; Figueira, Jose Rui; Steevens, Jeffery; Chappell, Mark; Merad, Myriam

2009-01-01

Various stakeholders are increasingly interested in the potential toxicity and other risks associated with nanomaterials throughout the different stages of a product's life cycle (e.g., development, production, use, disposal). Risk assessment methods and tools developed and applied to chemical and biological materials may not be readily adaptable for nanomaterials because of the current uncertainty in identifying the relevant physico-chemical and biological properties that adequately describe the materials. Such uncertainty is further driven by the substantial variations in the properties of the original material due to variable manufacturing processes employed in nanomaterial production. To guide scientists and engineers in nanomaterial research and application as well as to promote the safe handling and use of these materials, we propose a decision support system for classifying nanomaterials into different risk categories. The classification system is based on a set of performance metrics that measure both the toxicity and physico-chemical characteristics of the original materials, as well as the expected environmental impacts through the product life cycle. Stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis (SMAA-TRI), a formal decision analysis method, was used as the foundation for this task. This method allowed us to cluster various nanomaterials in different ecological risk categories based on our current knowledge of nanomaterial physico-chemical characteristics, variation in produced material, and best professional judgments. SMAA-TRI uses Monte Carlo simulations to explore all feasible values for weights, criteria measurements, and other model parameters to assess the robustness of nanomaterial grouping for risk management purposes.

Risk-based regulation: A regulatory perspective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Scarborough, J.C.

1993-01-01

In the early development of regulations for nuclear power plants, risk was implicitly considered through qualitative assessments and engineering reliability principles and practices. Examples included worst case analysis, defense in depth, and the single failure criterion. However, the contributions of various systems, structures, components and operator actions to plant safety were not explicitly assessed since a methodology for this purpose had not been developed. As a consequence of the TMI accident, the use of more quantitative risk methodology and information in regulation such as probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) increased. The use of both qualitative and quantitative consideration of risk in regulation has been a set of regulations and regulatory guides and practices that ensure adequate protection of public health and safety. Presently, the development of PRA techniques has developed to the point that safety goals, expressed in terms of risk, have been established to help guide further regulatory decision making. This paper presents the personal opinions of the author as regards the use of risk today in nuclear power plant regulation, areas of further information needs, and necessary plans for moving toward a more systematic use of risk-based information in regulatory initiatives in the future

Debt Stabilization and Debt Mutualization in a Monetary Union with Endogenous Risk Premia

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Engwerda, Jacob; van Aarle, B.; Weeren, A.J.T.M.

2015-01-01

In this paper we analyse debt stabilization in a monetary union that features endogenous risk premia. In particular, we analyse debt stabilization in two diametrically opposed regimes. In the first regime, the “national fiscal discipline regime”, financial markets impose sovereign risk premia based

Train integrity detection risk analysis based on PRISM

Science.gov (United States)

Wen, Yuan

2018-04-01

GNSS based Train Integrity Monitoring System (TIMS) is an effective and low-cost detection scheme for train integrity detection. However, as an external auxiliary system of CTCS, GNSS may be influenced by external environments, such as uncertainty of wireless communication channels, which may lead to the failure of communication and positioning. In order to guarantee the reliability and safety of train operation, a risk analysis method of train integrity detection based on PRISM is proposed in this article. First, we analyze the risk factors (in GNSS communication process and the on-board communication process) and model them. Then, we evaluate the performance of the model in PRISM based on the field data. Finally, we discuss how these risk factors influence the train integrity detection process.

Effectiveness of a web-based health risk assessment with individually-tailored feedback on lifestyle behaviour: study protocol

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Laan Eva K

2012-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Physical inactivity, unhealthy dietary habits, smoking and high alcohol consumption are recognized risk factors for cardiovascular disease and cancer. Web-based health risk assessments with tailored feedback seem promising in promoting a healthy lifestyle. This study evaluates the effectiveness of a web-based health risk assessment with individually-tailored feedback on lifestyle behaviour, conducted in a worksite setting. Methods/Design The web-based health risk assessment starts with a questionnaire covering socio-demographic variables, family and personal medical history, lifestyle behaviour and psychological variables. Prognostic models are used to estimate individual cardiovascular risks. In case of high risk further biometric and laboratory evaluation is advised. All participants receive individually-tailored feedback on their responses to the health risk assessment questionnaire. The study uses a quasi-experimental design with a waiting list control group. Data are collected at baseline (T0 and after six months (T1. Within each company, clusters of employees are allocated to either the intervention or the control group. Primary outcome is lifestyle behaviour, expressed as the sum of five indicators namely physical activity, nutrition, smoking behaviour, alcohol consumption, and symptoms of burnout. Multilevel regression analysis will be used to answer the main research question and to correct for clustering effects. Baseline differences between the intervention and control group in the distribution of characteristics with a potential effect on lifestyle change will be taken into account in further analyses using propensity scores. Discussion This study will increase insight into the effectiveness of health risk assessments with tailored feedback and into conditions that may modify the effectiveness. This information can be used to design effective interventions for lifestyle behaviour change among employees. Trial

Risk-based optimization of land reclamation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lendering, K.T.; Jonkman, S.N.; Gelder, P.H.A.J.M. van; Peters, D.J.

2015-01-01

Large-scale land reclamations are generally constructed by means of a landfill well above mean sea level. This can be costly in areas where good quality fill material is scarce. An alternative to save materials and costs is a ‘polder terminal’. The quay wall acts as a flood defense and the terminal level is well below the level of the quay wall. Compared with a conventional terminal, the costs are lower, but an additional flood risk is introduced. In this paper, a risk-based optimization is developed for a conventional and a polder terminal. It considers the investment and residual flood risk. The method takes into account both the quay wall and terminal level, which determine the probability and damage of flooding. The optimal quay wall level is found by solving a Lambert function numerically. The terminal level is bounded by engineering boundary conditions, i.e. piping and uplift of the cover layer of the terminal yard. It is found that, for a representative case study, the saving of reclamation costs for a polder terminal is larger than the increase of flood risk. The model is applicable to other cases of land reclamation and to similar optimization problems in flood risk management. - Highlights: • A polder terminal can be an attractive alternative for a conventional terminal. • A polder terminal is feasible at locations with high reclamation cost. • A risk-based approach is required to determine the optimal protection levels. • The depth of the polder terminal yard is bounded by uplifting of the cover layer. • This paper can support decisions regarding alternatives for port expansions.

Risk Based Milk Pricing Model at Dairy Farmers Level

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

W. Septiani

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The milk price from a cooperative institution to farmer does not fully cover the production cost. Though, dairy farmers encounter various risks and uncertainties in conducting their business. The highest risk in milk supply lies in the activities at the farm. This study was designed to formulate a model for calculating milk price at farmer’s level based on risk. Risks that occur on farms include the risk of cow breeding, sanitation, health care, cattle feed management, milking and milk sales. This research used the location of the farm in West Java region. There were five main stages in the preparation of this model, (1 identification and analysis of influential factors, (2 development of a conceptual model, (3 structural analysis and the amount of production costs, (4 model calculation of production cost with risk factors, and (5 risk based milk pricing model. This research built a relationship between risks on smallholder dairy farms with the production costs to be incurred by the farmers. It was also obtained the formulation of risk adjustment factor calculation for the variable costs of production in dairy cattle farm. The difference in production costs with risk and the total production cost without risk was about 8% to 10%. It could be concluded that the basic price of milk proposed based on the research was around IDR 4,250-IDR 4,350/L for 3 to 4 cows ownership. Increasing farmer income was expected to be obtained by entering the value of this risk in the calculation of production costs. 

Original article Familial risk of dyslexia in Polish first grade pupils based on the ARHQ-PL Questionnaire

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Grażyna Krasowicz-Kupis

2014-10-01

Full Text Available Background From the perspective of dyslexia, familial risk is the issue most researched worldwide. The familial risk has never been studied in Poland. Results of many studies conducted in Europe, the U.S. and Australia show that children who have a close family member with dyslexia are at greater risk of this disorder than children in the control groups. This conclusion is backed up by the results of research on the genetic aetiology of learning disorders. In the presented study on Polish 1st grade students, the Adult Reading History Questionnaire by Lefly and Pennington (2000 in the Polish adaptation (ARHQ-PL was used. The connections between the familial risk and the level of reading, spelling, phonological abilities and other cognitive functions were analysed. Participants and procedure The study covered 513 children, including their parents, from randomly selected primary schools in the Mazowieckie province. According to the ARHQ-PL assumptions, the children’s parents were divided into groups taking into account the familial risk level. Children were individually assessed for reading, spelling, phonological abilities, naming speed, phonological memory, vocabulary level and selective attention. Inter-group comparisons were performed based on the analysed variables for the groups of children whose parents had critical results in the ARHQ. The comparisons identified high risk (or lack of risk, as per sex, age, education level and SES (socio-economical status. Results The results show that there is a significant connection between risk group membership and the level of reading and of the majority of assessed phonological abilities. More significant relationships were determined for the familial risk of dyslexia observed for mothers. Conclusions The study confirms the diagnostic accuracy of the familial dyslexia risk ratio determined using the ARHQ-PL questionnaire for reading and for the majority of the phonological abilities closely

Uncertainty quantification and validation of combined hydrological and macroeconomic analyses.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hernandez, Jacquelynne; Parks, Mancel Jordan; Jennings, Barbara Joan; Kaplan, Paul Garry; Brown, Theresa Jean; Conrad, Stephen Hamilton

2010-09-01

Changes in climate can lead to instabilities in physical and economic systems, particularly in regions with marginal resources. Global climate models indicate increasing global mean temperatures over the decades to come and uncertainty in the local to national impacts means perceived risks will drive planning decisions. Agent-based models provide one of the few ways to evaluate the potential changes in behavior in coupled social-physical systems and to quantify and compare risks. The current generation of climate impact analyses provides estimates of the economic cost of climate change for a limited set of climate scenarios that account for a small subset of the dynamics and uncertainties. To better understand the risk to national security, the next generation of risk assessment models must represent global stresses, population vulnerability to those stresses, and the uncertainty in population responses and outcomes that could have a significant impact on U.S. national security.

A web-based endpoint adjudication system for interim analyses in clinical trials.

Science.gov (United States)

Nolen, Tracy L; Dimmick, Bill F; Ostrosky-Zeichner, Luis; Kendrick, Amy S; Sable, Carole; Ngai, Angela; Wallace, Dennis

2009-02-01

A data monitoring committee (DMC) is often employed to assess trial progress and review safety data and efficacy endpoints throughout a trail. Interim analyses performed for the DMC should use data that are as complete and verified as possible. Such analyses are complicated when data verification involves subjective study endpoints or requires clinical expertise to determine each subject's status with respect to the study endpoint. Therefore, procedures are needed to obtain adjudicated data for interim analyses in an efficient manner. In the past, methods for handling such data included using locally reported results as surrogate endpoints, adjusting analysis methods for unadjudicated data, or simply performing the adjudication as rapidly as possible. These methods all have inadequacies that make their sole usage suboptimal. For a study of prophylaxis for invasive candidiasis, adjudication of both study eligibility criteria and clinical endpoints prior to two interim analyses was required. Because the study was expected to enroll at a moderate rate and the sponsor required adjudicated endpoints to be used for interim analyses, an efficient process for adjudication was required. We created a web-based endpoint adjudication system (WebEAS) that allows for expedited review by the endpoint adjudication committee (EAC). This system automatically identifies when a subject's data are complete, creates a subject profile from the study data, and assigns EAC reviewers. The reviewers use the WebEAS to review the subject profile and submit their completed review form. The WebEAS then compares the reviews, assigns an additional review as a tiebreaker if needed, and stores the adjudicated data. The study for which this system was originally built was administratively closed after 10 months with only 38 subjects enrolled. The adjudication process was finalized and the WebEAS system activated prior to study closure. Some website accessibility issues presented initially. However

Risk based maintenance to increase safety and decrease costs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Phillips, J.H.

2000-01-01

Risk-Based techniques have been developed for commercial nuclear power plants for the last eight years by a team working through the ASME Center for Research and Technology Development (CRTD). System boundaries and success criteria is defined using the Probabilistic Risk Analysis or Probabilistic Safety Analysis developed to meet the Individual Plant Evaluation. Final ranking of components is by a plant expert panel similar to the one developed for the Maintenance Rule. Components are identified as being high risk-significant or low risk-significant. Maintenance and resources are focused on those components that have the highest risk-significance. The techniques have been developed and applied at a number of plants. Results from the first risk-based inspection pilot plant indicates safety due to pipe failure can be doubled while the inspection reduced to about 80% when compared with current inspection programs. Pilot studies on risk-based testing indicate that about 60% of pumps and 25 to 30% of valves in plants are high safety-significant The reduction in inspection and testing reduces the person-rem exposure and resulting in further increases in safety. These techniques have been documented in publications by the ASME CRTD which are referenced. (author)

Using Inequality Measures to Incorporate Environmental Justice into Regulatory Analyses

Science.gov (United States)

Harper, Sam; Ruder, Eric; Roman, Henry A.; Geggel, Amelia; Nweke, Onyemaechi; Payne-Sturges, Devon; Levy, Jonathan I.

2013-01-01

Formally evaluating how specific policy measures influence environmental justice is challenging, especially in the context of regulatory analyses in which quantitative comparisons are the norm. However, there is a large literature on developing and applying quantitative measures of health inequality in other settings, and these measures may be applicable to environmental regulatory analyses. In this paper, we provide information to assist policy decision makers in determining the viability of using measures of health inequality in the context of environmental regulatory analyses. We conclude that quantification of the distribution of inequalities in health outcomes across social groups of concern, considering both within-group and between-group comparisons, would be consistent with both the structure of regulatory analysis and the core definition of environmental justice. Appropriate application of inequality indicators requires thorough characterization of the baseline distribution of exposures and risks, leveraging data generally available within regulatory analyses. Multiple inequality indicators may be applicable to regulatory analyses, and the choice among indicators should be based on explicit value judgments regarding the dimensions of environmental justice of greatest interest. PMID:23999551

WTS - Risk Based Resource Targeting (RBRT) -

Data.gov (United States)

Department of Transportation — The Risk Based Resource Targeting (RBRT) application supports a new SMS-structured process designed to focus on safety oversight of systems and processes rather than...

RiskREP : risk-based security requirements elicitation and prioritization

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Herrmann, A.; Morali, A.; Etalle, S.; Wieringa, R.J.

2011-01-01

Companies are under pressure to be in control of their assets but at the same time they must operate as efficiently as possible. This means that they aim to implement "good-enough security" but need to be able to justify their security investment plans. In this paper, we present a Risk-Based

RiskREP: Risk-Based Security Requirements Elicitation and Prioritization

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Herrmann, Andrea; Morali, A.; Etalle, Sandro; Wieringa, Roelf J.; Niedrite, Laila; Strazdina, Renate; Wangler, Benkt

2011-01-01

Companies are under pressure to be in control of their assets but at the same time they must operate as efficiently as possible. This means that they aim to implement “good-enough security‿ but need to be able to justify their security investment plans. In this paper, we present a Risk-Based

Awareness of risk factors for cancer among Omani adults--a community based study.

Science.gov (United States)

Al-Azri, Mohammed; Al-Rasbi, Khadija; Al-Hinai, Mustafa; Davidson, Robin; Al-Maniri, Abdullah

2014-01-01

Cancer is the leading cause of mortality around the world. However, the majority of cancers occur as a result of modifiable risk factors; hence public awareness of cancer risk factors is crucial to reduce the incidence. The objective of this study was to identify the level of public awareness of cancer risk factors among the adult Omani population. A community based survey using the Cancer Awareness Measure (CAM) questionnaire was conducted in three areas of Oman to measure public awareness of cancer risk factors. Omani adults aged 18 years and above were invited to participate in the study. SPPSS (ver.20) was used to analyse the data. A total of 384 participated from 500 invited individuals (response rate =77%). The majority of respondents agreed that smoking cigarettes (320, 83.3%), passive smoking (279, 72.7%) and excessive drinking of alcohol (265, 69%) are risks factors for cancer. However, fewer respondents agreed that eating less fruit and vegetables (83, 21.6%), eating more red or processed meat (116, 30.2%), being overweight (BMI>25) (123, 32%), doing less physical exercise (119, 31%), being over 70 years old (72, 18.8%), having a close relative with cancer (134, 34.9%), infection with human papilloma virus (HPV) (117, 30.5%) and getting frequent sunburn during childhood (149, 38.8%) are risk factors for cancer. A significant association was found between participant responses and their educational level. The higher the educational level, the more likely that respondents identified cancer risk factors including smoking (paware of the common risk factors for cancer. It may be possible to reduce the incidence of cancers in Oman by developing strategies to educate the public about these risk factors.

German Risk Study - influences of data base, minimal requirements and system modifications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hoertner, H.; Linden, J. von

1987-01-01

The reliability analyses for Phase B of the German Risk Study taken into account an improved reliability data base, best-estimate minimal requirements for the relevant system functions and the design modifications, which have been carried out after completion of Phase A. These points and their influence on the frequency of core melt accidents are discussed, emphasizing the reliability data. Although the detailed evaluation of operating experience for the estimation of the reliability data does result in an increase of contributions, the best-estimate minimal requirements and the system modifications carried out for the reference plant reduce the core melt frequency due to those initiating events which were dominant in Phase A of the German Risk Study. The detailed investigation of additional initiating events which had already been recognized as important during Phase A leads to additional contributions to the frequency of core melt accidents. Such initiating events are the main steam line break and the steam generator tube rupture and altogether, the evaluated contributions to the frequency of core melt are lower than the values assessed in Phase A. (orig./HP)

THE GOAL OF VALUE-BASED MEDICINE ANALYSES: COMPARABILITY. THE CASE FOR NEOVASCULAR MACULAR DEGENERATION

Science.gov (United States)

Brown, Gary C.; Brown, Melissa M.; Brown, Heidi C.; Kindermann, Sylvia; Sharma, Sanjay

2007-01-01

Purpose To evaluate the comparability of articles in the peer-reviewed literature assessing the (1) patient value and (2) cost-utility (cost-effectiveness) associated with interventions for neovascular age-related macular degeneration (ARMD). Methods A search was performed in the National Library of Medicine database of 16 million peer-reviewed articles using the key words cost-utility, cost-effectiveness, value, verteporfin, pegaptanib, laser photocoagulation, ranibizumab, and therapy. All articles that used an outcome of quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were studied in regard to (1) percent improvement in quality of life, (2) utility methodology, (3) utility respondents, (4) types of costs included (eg, direct healthcare, direct nonhealthcare, indirect), (5) cost bases (eg, Medicare, National Health Service in the United Kingdom), and (6) study cost perspective (eg, government, societal, third-party insurer). To qualify as a value-based medicine analysis, the patient value had to be measured using the outcome of the QALYs conferred by respective interventions. As with value-based medicine analyses, patient-based time tradeoff utility analysis had to be utilized, patient utility respondents were necessary, and direct medical costs were used. Results Among 21 cost-utility analyses performed on interventions for neovascular macular degeneration, 15 (71%) met value-based medicine criteria. The 6 others (29%) were not comparable owing to (1) varying utility methodology, (2) varying utility respondents, (3) differing costs utilized, (4) differing cost bases, and (5) varying study perspectives. Among value-based medicine studies, laser photocoagulation confers a 4.4% value gain (improvement in quality of life) for the treatment of classic subfoveal choroidal neovascularization. Intravitreal pegaptanib confers a 5.9% value gain (improvement in quality of life) for classic, minimally classic, and occult subfoveal choroidal neovascularization, and photodynamic therapy

The goal of value-based medicine analyses: comparability. The case for neovascular macular degeneration.

Science.gov (United States)

Brown, Gary C; Brown, Melissa M; Brown, Heidi C; Kindermann, Sylvia; Sharma, Sanjay

2007-01-01

To evaluate the comparability of articles in the peer-reviewed literature assessing the (1) patient value and (2) cost-utility (cost-effectiveness) associated with interventions for neovascular age-related macular degeneration (ARMD). A search was performed in the National Library of Medicine database of 16 million peer-reviewed articles using the key words cost-utility, cost-effectiveness, value, verteporfin, pegaptanib, laser photocoagulation, ranibizumab, and therapy. All articles that used an outcome of quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were studied in regard to (1) percent improvement in quality of life, (2) utility methodology, (3) utility respondents, (4) types of costs included (eg, direct healthcare, direct nonhealthcare, indirect), (5) cost bases (eg, Medicare, National Health Service in the United Kingdom), and (6) study cost perspective (eg, government, societal, third-party insurer). To qualify as a value-based medicine analysis, the patient value had to be measured using the outcome of the QALYs conferred by respective interventions. As with value-based medicine analyses, patient-based time tradeoff utility analysis had to be utilized, patient utility respondents were necessary, and direct medical costs were used. Among 21 cost-utility analyses performed on interventions for neovascular macular degeneration, 15 (71%) met value-based medicine criteria. The 6 others (29%) were not comparable owing to (1) varying utility methodology, (2) varying utility respondents, (3) differing costs utilized, (4) differing cost bases, and (5) varying study perspectives. Among value-based medicine studies, laser photocoagulation confers a 4.4% value gain (improvement in quality of life) for the treatment of classic subfoveal choroidal neovascularization. Intravitreal pegaptanib confers a 5.9% value gain (improvement in quality of life) for classic, minimally classic, and occult subfoveal choroidal neovascularization, and photodynamic therapy with verteporfin confers

Risk-based configuration control system: Analysis and approaches

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Samanta, P.K.; Kim, I.S.; Lofgren, E.V.; Vesely, W.E.

1990-01-01

This paper presents an analysis of risks associated with component outage configurations during power operation of a nuclear power plant and discusses approaches and strategies for developing a risk-based configuration control system. A configuration, as used here, is a set of component states. The objective of risk-based configuration control is to detect and control plant configurations using a risk-perspective. The configuration contributions to core-melt frequency and core-melt probability are studied for two plants. Large core-melt frequency can be caused by configurations and there are a number of such configurations that are not currently controlled by technical specifications. However, the expected frequency of occurrence of the impacting configurations is small and the actual core-melt probability contributions are also generally small. Effective strategies and criteria for controlling configuration risks are presented. Such control strategies take into consideration the risks associated with configurations, the nature and characteristics of the configuration risks, and also the practical considerations such as adequate repair times and/or options to transfer to low risk configurations. Alternative types of criteria are discussed that are not overly restrictive to result in unnecessary plant shutdown, but rather motivates effective test and maintenance practices that control risk-significant configurations to allow continued operation with an adequate margin to meet challenges to safety

Risk-based configuration control system: Analysis and approaches

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Samanta, P.K.; Vesely, W.E.; Kim, I.S.; Lofgren, E.V.

1989-01-01

This paper presents an analysis of risks associated with component outage configurations during power operation of a nuclear power plant and discusses approaches and strategies for developing a risk-based configuration control system. A configuration, as used here, is a set of component states. The objective of risk-based configuration control is to detect and control plant configurations using a risk-perspective. The configuration contributions to core-melt frequency and core-melt probability are studied for two plants. Large core-melt frequency can be caused by configurations and there are a number of such configurations that are not currently controlled by technical specifications. However, the expected frequency of occurrence of the impacting configurations is small and the actual core-melt probability contributions are also generally small. Effective strategies and criteria for controlling configuration risks are presented. Such control strategies take into consideration the risks associated with configurations, the nature and characteristics of the configuration risks, and also the practical considerations such as adequate repair times and/or options to transfer to low risk configurations. Alternative types of criteria are discussed that are not overly restrictive to result in unnecessary plant shutdown, but rather motivates effective tests and maintenance practices that control; risk-significant configurations to allow continued operation with an adequate margin to meet challenges to safety. 3 refs., 7 figs., 2 tabs

Exergy based methods for economic and risk design optimization of energy systems: Application to a gas turbine

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cassetti, G.; Rocco, M.V.; Colombo, E.

2014-01-01

Exergy based analyses are considered by the scientific community appropriate tools for the design and the performance evaluation and improvements of energy systems. Moreover, they are today recognized as proper instruments to assess economic, environmental and social externalities of energy systems. This paper presents the results of a study in which different exergy analysis methods are adopted to determine the optimal design configuration of a gas turbine operating in simple Joule Brayton cycle. Standard exergy and Thermoeconomic analyses are performed to identify the highest thermodynamic efficiency and minimum economic cost configurations of the system, while for the environmental analysis Authors propose an innovative method in which the exergy analysis is combined with a Risk Analysis. With this method the total risk associated to the system is used as objective function in the same way as monetary cost is for standard Thermoeconomic analysis. These three methods aims therefore to determine the optimal design configurations of the system with respect to their specific objective functions, respectively: exergy cost (J/J), monetary (exergoeconomic) cost (€/J) and risk (injured/J) of the product. Results lead to three different optimal design parameters for the system, according to the objective of each analysis procedure. - Highlights: • An original implementation of Thermoeconomic framework is proposed. • Standard Exergy and Thermoeconomic analysis are performed on a case study. • A new model using exergy as allocation criteria for Risk Analysis is performed. • Different optimal configurations are obtained and compared

Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

Science.gov (United States)

Prayogo, Galang Sandy; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

2016-04-01

Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Prayogo, Galang Sandy; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

2016-01-01

Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Prayogo, Galang Sandy, E-mail: gasandylang@live.com; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Diponegoro University, Semarang (Indonesia); Kim, Seon Jin [Department of Mechanical & Automotive Engineering of Pukyong National University (Korea, Republic of)

2016-04-19

Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

Application of risk-based inspection methods for cryogenic equipment

CERN Multimedia

CERN. Geneva

2016-01-01

Risk-based Inspection (RBI) is widely applied across the world as part of Pressure Equipment Integrity Management, especially in the oil and gas industry, to generally reduce costs compared with time-based approaches and assist in assigning resources to the most critical equipment. One of the challenges in RBI is to apply it for low temperature and cryogenic applications, as there are usually no degradation mechanisms by which to determine a suitable probability of failure in the overall risk assessment. However, the assumptions used for other degradation mechanisms can be adopted to determine, qualitatively and semi-quantitatively, a consequence of failure within the risk assessment. This can assist in providing a consistent basis for the assumptions used in ensuring adequate process safety barriers and determining suitable sizing of relief devices. This presentation will discuss risk-based inspection in the context of cryogenic safety, as well as present some of the considerations for the risk assessme...

Estimated medical expenditure and risk of job loss among rheumatoid arthritis patients undergoing tofacitinib treatment: post hoc analyses of two randomized clinical trials.

Science.gov (United States)

Rendas-Baum, Regina; Kosinski, Mark; Singh, Amitabh; Mebus, Charles A; Wilkinson, Bethany E; Wallenstein, Gene V

2017-08-01

RA causes high disability levels and reduces health-related quality of life, triggering increased costs and risk of unemployment. Tofacitinib is an oral Janus kinase inhibitor for the treatment of RA. These post hoc analyses of phase 3 data aimed to assess monthly medical expenditure (MME) and risk of job loss for tofacitinib treatment vs placebo. Data analysed were from two randomized phase 3 studies of RA patients (n = 1115) with inadequate response to MTX or TNF inhibitors (TNFi) receiving tofacitinib 5 or 10 mg twice daily, adalimumab (one study only) or placebo, in combination with MTX. Short Form 36 version 2 Health Survey physical and mental component summary scores were translated into predicted MME via an algorithm and concurrent inability to work and job loss risks at 6, 12 and 24 months, using Medical Outcomes Study data. MME reduction by month 3 was $100 greater for tofacitinib- than placebo-treated TNFi inadequate responders (P 20 and 6% reductions from baseline, respectively. By month 3 of tofacitinib treatment, the odds of inability to work decreased ⩾16%, and risk of future job loss decreased ∼20% (P tofacitinib- than placebo-treated MTX inadequate responders (P tofacitinib treatment, the odds of inability to work decreased ⩾31% and risk of future job loss decreased ⩾25% (P Tofacitinib treatment had a positive impact on estimated medical expenditure and risk of job loss for RA patients with inadequate response to MTX or TNFi. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Rheumatology.

Conducting Meta-Analyses Based on p Values

Science.gov (United States)

van Aert, Robbie C. M.; Wicherts, Jelte M.; van Assen, Marcel A. L. M.

2016-01-01

Because of overwhelming evidence of publication bias in psychology, techniques to correct meta-analytic estimates for such bias are greatly needed. The methodology on which the p-uniform and p-curve methods are based has great promise for providing accurate meta-analytic estimates in the presence of publication bias. However, in this article, we show that in some situations, p-curve behaves erratically, whereas p-uniform may yield implausible estimates of negative effect size. Moreover, we show that (and explain why) p-curve and p-uniform result in overestimation of effect size under moderate-to-large heterogeneity and may yield unpredictable bias when researchers employ p-hacking. We offer hands-on recommendations on applying and interpreting results of meta-analyses in general and p-uniform and p-curve in particular. Both methods as well as traditional methods are applied to a meta-analysis on the effect of weight on judgments of importance. We offer guidance for applying p-uniform or p-curve using R and a user-friendly web application for applying p-uniform. PMID:27694466

Application of Markowitz model in analysing risk and return a case study of BSE stock

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Manas Pandey

2012-03-01

Full Text Available In this paper the optimal portfolio formation using real life data subject to two different constraint sets is attempted. It is a theoretical framework for the analysis of risk return choices. Decisions are based on the concept of efficient portfolios. Markowitz portfolio analysis gives as output an efficient frontier on which each portfolio is the highest return earning portfolio for a specified level of risk. The investors can reduce their risks and can maximize their return from the investment, The Markowitz portfolio selections were obtained by solving the portfolio optimization problems to get maximum total returns, constrained by minimum allowable risk level. Investors can get lot of information knowledge about how to invest when to invest and why to invest in the particular portfolio. It basically calculates the standard deviation and returns for each of the feasible portfolios and identifies the efficient frontier, the boundary of the feasible portfolios of increasing returns

Risk-based classification system of nanomaterials

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tervonen, Tommi, E-mail: t.p.tervonen@rug.n [University of Groningen, Faculty of Economics and Business (Netherlands); Linkov, Igor, E-mail: igor.linkov@usace.army.mi [US Army Research and Development Center (United States); Figueira, Jose Rui, E-mail: figueira@ist.utl.p [Technical University of Lisbon, CEG-IST, Centre for Management Studies, Instituto Superior Tecnico (Portugal); Steevens, Jeffery, E-mail: jeffery.a.steevens@usace.army.mil; Chappell, Mark, E-mail: mark.a.chappell@usace.army.mi [US Army Research and Development Center (United States); Merad, Myriam, E-mail: myriam.merad@ineris.f [INERIS BP 2, Societal Management of Risks Unit/Accidental Risks Division (France)

2009-05-15

Various stakeholders are increasingly interested in the potential toxicity and other risks associated with nanomaterials throughout the different stages of a product's life cycle (e.g., development, production, use, disposal). Risk assessment methods and tools developed and applied to chemical and biological materials may not be readily adaptable for nanomaterials because of the current uncertainty in identifying the relevant physico-chemical and biological properties that adequately describe the materials. Such uncertainty is further driven by the substantial variations in the properties of the original material due to variable manufacturing processes employed in nanomaterial production. To guide scientists and engineers in nanomaterial research and application as well as to promote the safe handling and use of these materials, we propose a decision support system for classifying nanomaterials into different risk categories. The classification system is based on a set of performance metrics that measure both the toxicity and physico-chemical characteristics of the original materials, as well as the expected environmental impacts through the product life cycle. Stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis (SMAA-TRI), a formal decision analysis method, was used as the foundation for this task. This method allowed us to cluster various nanomaterials in different ecological risk categories based on our current knowledge of nanomaterial physico-chemical characteristics, variation in produced material, and best professional judgments. SMAA-TRI uses Monte Carlo simulations to explore all feasible values for weights, criteria measurements, and other model parameters to assess the robustness of nanomaterial grouping for risk management purposes.

Competing-Risks Mortality After Radiotherapy vs. Observation for Localized Prostate Cancer: A Population-based Study

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Abdollah, Firas, E-mail: firas.abdollah@gmail.com [Cancer Prognostics and Health Outcomes Unit, University of Montreal Health Centre, Montreal (Canada); Department of Urology, Vita Salute San Raffaele University, Milan (Italy); Sun, Maxine [Cancer Prognostics and Health Outcomes Unit, University of Montreal Health Centre, Montreal (Canada); Schmitges, Jan [Cancer Prognostics and Health Outcomes Unit, University of Montreal Health Centre, Montreal (Canada); Martini-Clinic, Prostate Cancer Center Hamburg-Eppendorf, Hamburg (Germany); Thuret, Rodolphe [Cancer Prognostics and Health Outcomes Unit, University of Montreal Health Centre, Montreal (Canada); Department of Urology, University of Montpellier Health Centre, Montpellier (France); Tian, Zhe [Cancer Prognostics and Health Outcomes Unit, University of Montreal Health Centre, Montreal (Canada); Shariat, Shahrokh F. [Department of Urology, Weill Medical College of Cornell University, New York, NY (United States); Briganti, Alberto [Department of Urology, Vita Salute San Raffaele University, Milan (Italy); Jeldres, Claudio; Perrotte, Paul [Cancer Prognostics and Health Outcomes Unit, University of Montreal Health Centre, Montreal (Canada); Department of Urology, University of Montreal Health Centre, Montreal (Canada); Montorsi, Francesco [Department of Urology, Vita Salute San Raffaele University, Milan (Italy); Karakiewicz, Pierre I. [Cancer Prognostics and Health Outcomes Unit, University of Montreal Health Centre, Montreal (Canada); Department of Urology, University of Montreal Health Centre, Montreal (Canada)

2012-09-01

Purpose: Contemporary patients with localized prostate cancer (PCa) are more frequently treated with radiotherapy. However, there are limited data on the effect of this treatment on cancer-specific mortality (CSM). Our objective was to test the relationship between radiotherapy and survival in men with localized PCa and compare it with those treated with observation. Methods: A population-based cohort identified 68,797 men with cT1-T2 PCa treated with radiotherapy or observation between the years 1992 and 2005. Propensity-score matching was used to minimize potential bias related to treatment assignment. Competing-risks analyses tested the effect of treatment type (radiotherapy vs. observation) on CSM, after accounting to other-cause mortality. All analyses were carried out within PCa risk, baseline comorbidity status, and age groups. Results: Radiotherapy was associated with more favorable 10-year CSM rates than observation in patients with high-risk PCa (8.8 vs. 14.4%, hazard ratio [HR]: 0.59, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.50-0.68). Conversely, the beneficial effect of radiotherapy on CSM was not evident in patients with low-intermediate risk PCa (3.7 vs. 4.1%, HR: 0.91, 95% CI: 0.80-1.04). Radiotherapy was beneficial in elderly patients (5.6 vs. 7.3%, HR: 0.70, 95% CI: 0.59-0.80). Moreover, it was associated with improved CSM rates among patients with no comorbidities (5.7 vs. 6.5%, HR: 0.81, 95% CI: 0.67-0.98), one comorbidity (4.6 vs. 6.0%, HR: 0.87, 95% CI: 0.75-0.99), and more than two comorbidities (4.2 vs. 5.0%, HR: 0.79, 95% CI: 0.65-0.96). Conclusions: Radiotherapy substantially improves CSM in patients with high-risk PCa, with little or no benefit in patients with low-/intermediate-risk PCa relative to observation. These findings must be interpreted within the context of the limitations of observational data.

Model based risk assessment - the CORAS framework

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gran, Bjoern Axel; Fredriksen, Rune; Thunem, Atoosa P-J.

2004-04-15

Traditional risk analysis and assessment is based on failure-oriented models of the system. In contrast to this, model-based risk assessment (MBRA) utilizes success-oriented models describing all intended system aspects, including functional, operational and organizational aspects of the target. The target models are then used as input sources for complementary risk analysis and assessment techniques, as well as a basis for the documentation of the assessment results. The EU-funded CORAS project developed a tool-supported methodology for the application of MBRA in security-critical systems. The methodology has been tested with successful outcome through a series of seven trial within the telemedicine and ecommerce areas. The CORAS project in general and the CORAS application of MBRA in particular have contributed positively to the visibility of model-based risk assessment and thus to the disclosure of several potentials for further exploitation of various aspects within this important research field. In that connection, the CORAS methodology's possibilities for further improvement towards utilization in more complex architectures and also in other application domains such as the nuclear field can be addressed. The latter calls for adapting the framework to address nuclear standards such as IEC 60880 and IEC 61513. For this development we recommend applying a trial driven approach within the nuclear field. The tool supported approach for combining risk analysis and system development also fits well with the HRP proposal for developing an Integrated Design Environment (IDE) providing efficient methods and tools to support control room systems design. (Author)

12 CFR 652.65 - Risk-based capital stress test.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

...) You will use Corporation loan-level data to implement the credit risk component of the risk-based... Service corporate income tax schedule, as further described in appendix A to this subpart. (b) Credit risk. The credit risk part estimates loan losses during a period of sustained economic stress. (1) For each...

SOCR Analyses - an Instructional Java Web-based Statistical Analysis Toolkit.

Science.gov (United States)

Chu, Annie; Cui, Jenny; Dinov, Ivo D

2009-03-01

The Statistical Online Computational Resource (SOCR) designs web-based tools for educational use in a variety of undergraduate courses (Dinov 2006). Several studies have demonstrated that these resources significantly improve students' motivation and learning experiences (Dinov et al. 2008). SOCR Analyses is a new component that concentrates on data modeling and analysis using parametric and non-parametric techniques supported with graphical model diagnostics. Currently implemented analyses include commonly used models in undergraduate statistics courses like linear models (Simple Linear Regression, Multiple Linear Regression, One-Way and Two-Way ANOVA). In addition, we implemented tests for sample comparisons, such as t-test in the parametric category; and Wilcoxon rank sum test, Kruskal-Wallis test, Friedman's test, in the non-parametric category. SOCR Analyses also include several hypothesis test models, such as Contingency tables, Friedman's test and Fisher's exact test.The code itself is open source (http://socr.googlecode.com/), hoping to contribute to the efforts of the statistical computing community. The code includes functionality for each specific analysis model and it has general utilities that can be applied in various statistical computing tasks. For example, concrete methods with API (Application Programming Interface) have been implemented in statistical summary, least square solutions of general linear models, rank calculations, etc. HTML interfaces, tutorials, source code, activities, and data are freely available via the web (www.SOCR.ucla.edu). Code examples for developers and demos for educators are provided on the SOCR Wiki website.In this article, the pedagogical utilization of the SOCR Analyses is discussed, as well as the underlying design framework. As the SOCR project is on-going and more functions and tools are being added to it, these resources are constantly improved. The reader is strongly encouraged to check the SOCR site for most

Using QA classification to guide design and manage risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lathrop, J.; DeKlever, R.; Petrie, E.H.

1993-01-01

Raytheon Services Nevada has developed a classification process based on probabilistic risk assessment, using accident/impact scenarios for each system classified. Initial classification analyses were performed for the 20 systems of Package IA of the Exploratory Studies Facility (ESF). The analyses demonstrated a solid, defensible methodological basis for classification which minimizes the use of direct engineering judgment. They provide guidance for ESF design and risk management through the identification of: The critical characteristics of each system that need to be controlled; and the parts of the information base that most need to be further developed through performance assessment or other efforts

Vegetable-based dietary pattern and liver cancer risk: results from the Shanghai women's and men's health studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Wei; Xiang, Yong-Bing; Li, Hong-Lan; Yang, Gong; Cai, Hui; Ji, Bu-Tian; Gao, Yu-Tang; Zheng, Wei; Shu, Xiao-Ou

2013-10-01

Although dietary patterns, specific foods, and their constituents have been linked to cancer risk, the role of dietary patterns and specific food groups in liver cancer risk has not been investigated. In the Shanghai Women's Health Study (SWHS) and Shanghai Men's Health Study (SMHS), two cohort studies of 132 837 Chinese women and men, we evaluated the relationship between dietary patterns, food groups, and liver cancer risk. Through in-person interviews, dietary information intake over the preceding year was collected by using a validated food-frequency questionnaire. Cox regression model was used to estimate hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals with adjustment for potential confounders. During an average follow-up of 10.9 (SWHS) or 5.5 (SMHS) years, 267 incident liver cancer cases were identified after the first 2 years of study enrolment. Three dietary patterns were derived by factor analysis. A vegetable-based dietary pattern was inversely associated with liver cancer; hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) for the lowest to highest quartiles were: 1.00; 0.98 (0.71-1.35); 0.93 (0.67-1.29); and 0.58 (0.40-0.84); P(trend) = 0.01. The association was stronger among participants with a history of chronic liver disease. Further analyses showed high intakes of celery, mushrooms, allium vegetables, composite vegetables (including asparagus lettuce and garland chrysanthemum), legumes and legume products were associated with reduced liver cancer risk (all P(trend) < 0.05). Fruit- and meat-based dietary patterns were not associated with liver cancer risk. Our study suggests that a vegetable-based dietary pattern is associated with reduced liver cancer risk. © 2013 Japanese Cancer Association.

Analysing the Effects of Flood-Resilience Technologies in Urban Areas Using a Synthetic Model Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Reinhard Schinke

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Flood protection systems with their spatial effects play an important role in managing and reducing flood risks. The planning and decision process as well as the technical implementation are well organized and often exercised. However, building-related flood-resilience technologies (FReT are often neglected due to the absence of suitable approaches to analyse and to integrate such measures in large-scale flood damage mitigation concepts. Against this backdrop, a synthetic model-approach was extended by few complementary methodical steps in order to calculate flood damage to buildings considering the effects of building-related FReT and to analyse the area-related reduction of flood risks by geo-information systems (GIS with high spatial resolution. It includes a civil engineering based investigation of characteristic properties with its building construction including a selection and combination of appropriate FReT as a basis for derivation of synthetic depth-damage functions. Depending on the real exposition and the implementation level of FReT, the functions can be used and allocated in spatial damage and risk analyses. The application of the extended approach is shown at a case study in Valencia (Spain. In this way, the overall research findings improve the integration of FReT in flood risk management. They provide also some useful information for advising of individuals at risk supporting the selection and implementation of FReT.

Canadian population risk of radon induced lung cancer variation range assessment based on various radon risk models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, Jing

2017-01-01

To address public concerns regarding radon risk and variations in risk estimates based on various risk models available in the literature, lifetime lung cancer risks were calculated with five well-known risk models using more recent Canadian vital statistics (5-year averages from 2008 to 2012). Variations in population risk estimation among various models were assessed. The results showed that the Canadian population risk of radon induced lung cancer can vary from 5.0 to 17% for men and 5.1 to 18% for women based on different radon risk models. Averaged over the estimates from various risk models with better radon dosimetry, 13% of lung cancer deaths among Canadian males and 14% of lung cancer deaths among Canadian females were attributable to long-term indoor radon exposure. (authors)

Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment (CGA) based risk factors for increased caregiver burden among elderly Asian patients with cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Rajasekaran, Tanujaa; Tan, Tira; Ong, Whee Sze; Koo, Khai Nee; Chan, Lili; Poon, Donald; Roy Chowdhury, Anupama; Krishna, Lalit; Kanesvaran, Ravindran

2016-05-01

This study aims to identify Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment (CGA) based risk factors to help predict caregiver burden among elderly patients with cancer. The study evaluated 249 patients newly diagnosed with cancer, aged 70years and above, who attended the geriatric oncology clinic at the National Cancer Centre Singapore between 2007 and 2010. Out of 249 patients, 244 patients had information available on family caregiver burden and were analysed. On univariate analysis, ADL dependence, lower IADL scores, ECOG performance status of 3-4, higher fall risk, lower scores in dominant hand grip strength test and mini mental state examination, polypharmacy, higher nutritional risk, haemoglobin geriatric syndromes were significantly associated with mild to severe caregiver burden. On multivariate analysis, only ECOG performance status of 3-4 (odds ratio [OR], 4.47; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.27-8.80) and haemoglobin patients were stratified into 3 risk groups with different proportion of patients with increased caregiver burden (low risk: 3.9% vs intermediate risk: 18.8% vs high risk: 39.6%; ppatients with cancer. Using these two factors in the clinic may help clinicians identify caregivers at risk and take preventive action to mitigate that. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Benefits of Exercise Training For Computer-Based Staff: A Meta Analyses

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mothna Mohammed

2017-04-01

Full Text Available Background: Office workers sit down to work for approximately 8 hours a day and, as a result, many of them do not have enough time for any form of physical exercise. This can lead to musculoskeletal discomforts, especially low back pain and recently, many researchers focused on home/office-based exercise training for prevention/treatment of low back pain among this population. Objective: This Meta analyses paper tried to discuss about the latest suggested exercises for the office workers based on the mechanisms and theories behind low back pain among office workers. Method: In this Meta analyses the author tried to collect relevant papers which were published previously on the subject. Google Scholar, Scopus, and PubMed were used as sources to find the articles. Only articles that were published using the same methodology, including office workers, musculoskeletal discomforts, low back pain, and exercise training keywords, were selected. Studies that failed to report sufficient sample statistics, or lacked a substantial review of past academic scholarship and/or clear methodologies, were excluded. Results: Limited evidence regarding the prevention of, and treatment methods for, musculoskeletal discomfort, especially those in the low back, among office workers, is available. The findings showed that training exercises had a significant effect (p<0.05 on low back pain discomfort scores and decreased pain levels in response to office-based exercise training. Conclusion: Office-based exercise training can affect pain/discomfort scores among office workers through positive effects on flexibility and strength of muscles. As such, it should be suggested to occupational therapists as a practical way for the treatment/prevention of low back pain among office workers.

Research needs for risk-informed, performance-based regulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cloninger, T.H.

1997-01-01

This presentation was made by an executive in the utility which operates the South Texas Project reactors, and summarizes their perspective on probabilistic safety analysis, risk-based operation, and risk-based regulation. They view it as a tool to help them better apply their resources to maintain the level of safety necessary to protect the public health and safety. South Texas served as one of the pilot plants for the application of risk-based regulation to the maintenance rule. The author feels that the process presents opportunities as well as challenges. Among the opportunities is the involvement of more people in the process, and the sense of investment they take in the decisions, in addition to the insight they can offer. In the area of challenges there is the need for better understanding of how to apply what already is known on problems, rather than essentially reinventing the wheel to address problems. Research is needed to better understand when some events are not truly of a significant safety concern. The demarcation between deterministic decisions and the appropriate application of risk-based decisions must be better defined, for the sake of the operator as well as the public observing plant operation

Quantified Risk Ranking Model for Condition-Based Risk and Reliability Centered Maintenance

Science.gov (United States)

Chattopadhyaya, Pradip Kumar; Basu, Sushil Kumar; Majumdar, Manik Chandra

2017-06-01

In the recent past, risk and reliability centered maintenance (RRCM) framework is introduced with a shift in the methodological focus from reliability and probabilities (expected values) to reliability, uncertainty and risk. In this paper authors explain a novel methodology for risk quantification and ranking the critical items for prioritizing the maintenance actions on the basis of condition-based risk and reliability centered maintenance (CBRRCM). The critical items are identified through criticality analysis of RPN values of items of a system and the maintenance significant precipitating factors (MSPF) of items are evaluated. The criticality of risk is assessed using three risk coefficients. The likelihood risk coefficient treats the probability as a fuzzy number. The abstract risk coefficient deduces risk influenced by uncertainty, sensitivity besides other factors. The third risk coefficient is called hazardous risk coefficient, which is due to anticipated hazards which may occur in the future and the risk is deduced from criteria of consequences on safety, environment, maintenance and economic risks with corresponding cost for consequences. The characteristic values of all the three risk coefficients are obtained with a particular test. With few more tests on the system, the values may change significantly within controlling range of each coefficient, hence `random number simulation' is resorted to obtain one distinctive value for each coefficient. The risk coefficients are statistically added to obtain final risk coefficient of each critical item and then the final rankings of critical items are estimated. The prioritization in ranking of critical items using the developed mathematical model for risk assessment shall be useful in optimization of financial losses and timing of maintenance actions.

The risk-based approach to anti-money laundering: problems and solutions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Simonova, Anna

2011-01-01

Purpose – The purpose of this paper, which is a part of a PhD thesis, is to detect problems associated with the risk-based approach to anti-money laundering (AML), as well as present ways to improve the risk-based approach. Design/methodology/approach – The method is law and economics. The Ph......D thesis itself is also based on a comparative analysis of the Danish and British AML regimes. Findings – The main findings are: failure to develop adequate risk-based AML systems, taking into account varying levels of money laundering risk, is not only to be considered in the context of legal risk...... but also and more importantly in the context of integrity risk; anti-money laundering (AML) has to be made part of financial and non-financial institutions' corporate social responsibility policies; the Risk Analysis Manual provided by the Central Bank of The Netherlands lists very specific...

Vocational Teachers and Professionalism - A Model Based on Empirical Analyses

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Duch, Henriette Skjærbæk; Andreasen, Karen E

Vocational Teachers and Professionalism - A Model Based on Empirical Analyses Several theorists has developed models to illustrate the processes of adult learning and professional development (e.g. Illeris, Argyris, Engeström; Wahlgren & Aarkorg, Kolb and Wenger). Models can sometimes be criticized...... emphasis on the adult employee, the organization, its surroundings as well as other contextual factors. Our concern is adult vocational teachers attending a pedagogical course and teaching at vocational colleges. The aim of the paper is to discuss different models and develop a model concerning teachers...... at vocational colleges based on empirical data in a specific context, vocational teacher-training course in Denmark. By offering a basis and concepts for analysis of practice such model is meant to support the development of vocational teachers’ professionalism at courses and in organizational contexts...

LWR safety studies. Analyses and further assessments relating to the German Risk Assessment Study on Nuclear Power Plants. Vol. 3

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1983-01-01

Critical review of the analyses of the German Risk Assessment Study on Nuclear Power Plants (DRS) concerning the reliability of the containment under accident conditions and the conditions of fission product release (transport and distribution in the environment). Main point of interest in this context is an explosion in the steam section and its impact on the containment. Critical comments are given on the models used in the DRS for determining the accident consequences. The analyses made deal with the mathematical models and database for propagation calculations, the methods of dose computation and assessment of health hazards, and the modelling of protective and safety measures. Social impacts of reactor accidents are also considered. (RF) [de

The Key to Sustainable Risk Governance

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Torben Juul; Shaw, Gregory L.

by relevant literatures on risk governance and values-based management complemented with insights from case analyses and empirical studies. Findings: – The paper explains why formal risk management approaches have limitations and outlines how the presence of official policies and codes of conduct...... failed to do the job when the leadership in reality gave first priority to profits at the expense of the stated environmental values. The prioritized code of the US Coast Guard is used to illustrate the circumstances where core values support effective crisis, disaster and risk management outcomes......Purpose: – The article brings attention to the importance of corporate values and concrete leadership enactment of those values as a necessary condition for effective risk management outcomes. Design/methodology/approach: – The content is based on practice-based research experiences supported...

Regionalisation of asset values for risk analyses

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. H. Thieken

2006-01-01

Full Text Available In risk analysis there is a spatial mismatch of hazard data that are commonly modelled on an explicit raster level and exposure data that are often only available for aggregated units, e.g. communities. Dasymetric mapping techniques that use ancillary information to disaggregate data within a spatial unit help to bridge this gap. This paper presents dasymetric maps showing the population density and a unit value of residential assets for whole Germany. A dasymetric mapping approach, which uses land cover data (CORINE Land Cover as ancillary variable, was adapted and applied to regionalize aggregated census data that are provided for all communities in Germany. The results were validated by two approaches. First, it was ascertained whether population data disaggregated at the community level can be used to estimate population in postcodes. Secondly, disaggregated population and asset data were used for a loss evaluation of two flood events that occurred in 1999 and 2002, respectively. It must be concluded that the algorithm tends to underestimate the population in urban areas and to overestimate population in other land cover classes. Nevertheless, flood loss evaluations demonstrate that the approach is capable of providing realistic estimates of the number of exposed people and assets. Thus, the maps are sufficient for applications in large-scale risk assessments such as the estimation of population and assets exposed to natural and man-made hazards.

Increased risk of stroke in hypertensive women using hormone therapy: analyses based on the Danish Nurse Study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Løkkegaard, Ellen; Jovanovic, Zorana; Heitmann, Berit L

2003-01-01

by presence of risk factors for stroke. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: In 1993, the Danish Nurse Study was established, and questionnaires on lifestyle and HT use were sent to all Danish nurses older than 44 years, of whom 19,898 (85.8%) replied. PARTICIPANTS: Postmenopausal women (n = 13...

Big data based fraud risk management at Alibaba

OpenAIRE

Chen, Jidong; Tao, Ye; Wang, Haoran; Chen, Tao

2015-01-01

With development of mobile internet and finance, fraud risk comes in all shapes and sizes. This paper is to introduce the Fraud Risk Management at Alibaba under big data. Alibaba has built a fraud risk monitoring and management system based on real-time big data processing and intelligent risk models. It captures fraud signals directly from huge amount data of user behaviors and network, analyzes them in real-time using machine learning, and accurately predicts the bad users and transactions....

Options for improving hazardous waste cleanups using risk-based criteria

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Elcock, D.

1995-01-01

This paper explores how risk- and technology-based criteria are currently used in the RCRA and CERCLA cleanup programs. It identifies ways in which risk could be further incorporated into RCRA and CERCLA cleanup requirements and the implications of risk-based approaches. The more universal use of risk assessment as embodied in the risk communication and risk improvement bills before Congress is not addressed. Incorporating risk into the laws and regulations governing hazardous waste cleanup, will allow the use of the best scientific information available to further the goal of environmental protection in the United States while containing costs. and may help set an example for other countries that may be developing cleanup programs, thereby contributing to enhanced global environmental management

Risk assessment for nuclear processes at the Savannah River Site

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Durant, W.S.

1992-01-01

The Savannah River Site, one of the US Department of Energy's nuclear materials processing facilities, has for many years conducted risk-based safety analyses for the nuclear processes conducted at the facilities. This approach has allowed comparisons of risks to established criteria for acceptability. When the risk-based program was begun, it was evident that its success would depend upon having a compilation of data that was site specific. The decision was made to create a data bank of undesirable events that had occurred at the site's nuclear fuel reprocessing facilities. From this modest beginning, five data banks have been created for nuclear fuel reprocessing, waste management, nuclear fuel fabrication, tritium operations, and the Savannah River Technology Center. In addition to the primary purpose of providing a sound basis for risk-based safety analyses, these highly versatile data banks are routinely used for equipment breakdown histories, incident investigations, design studies, project justifications, reliability studies, process problem solving, training, and audits

Health economics and outcomes methods in risk-based decision-making for blood safety.

Science.gov (United States)

Custer, Brian; Janssen, Mart P

2015-08-01

Analytical methods appropriate for health economic assessments of transfusion safety interventions have not previously been described in ways that facilitate their use. Within the context of risk-based decision-making (RBDM), health economics can be important for optimizing decisions among competing interventions. The objective of this review is to address key considerations and limitations of current methods as they apply to blood safety. Because a voluntary blood supply is an example of a public good, analyses should be conducted from the societal perspective when possible. Two primary study designs are recommended for most blood safety intervention assessments: budget impact analysis (BIA), which measures the cost to implement an intervention both to the blood operator but also in a broader context, and cost-utility analysis (CUA), which measures the ratio between costs and health gain achieved, in terms of reduced morbidity and mortality, by use of an intervention. These analyses often have important limitations because data that reflect specific aspects, for example, blood recipient population characteristics or complication rates, are not available. Sensitivity analyses play an important role. The impact of various uncertain factors can be studied conjointly in probabilistic sensitivity analyses. The use of BIA and CUA together provides a comprehensive assessment of the costs and benefits from implementing (or not) specific interventions. RBDM is multifaceted and impacts a broad spectrum of stakeholders. Gathering and analyzing health economic evidence as part of the RBDM process enhances the quality, completeness, and transparency of decision-making. © 2015 AABB.

Synthesis of Enterprise and Value-Based Methods for Multiattribute Risk Analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kenley, C. Robert; Collins, John W.; Beck, John M.; Heydt, Harold J.; Garcia, Chad B.

2001-01-01

This paper describes a method for performing multiattribute decision analysis to prioritize ap-proaches to handling risks during the development and operation of complex socio-technical systems. The method combines risk categorization based on enterprise views, risk prioritization of the categories based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), and more standard probability-consequence ratings schemes. We also apply value-based testing me-thods used in software development to prioritize risk-handling approaches. We describe a tool that synthesizes the methods and performs a multiattribute analysis of the technical and pro-grammatic risks on the Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) enterprise.

Description of OPRA: A Danish database designed for the analyses of risk factors associated with 30-day hospital readmission of people aged 65+ years.

Science.gov (United States)

Pedersen, Mona K; Nielsen, Gunnar L; Uhrenfeldt, Lisbeth; Rasmussen, Ole S; Lundbye-Christensen, Søren

2017-08-01

To describe the construction of the Older Person at Risk Assessment (OPRA) database, the ability to link this database with existing data sources obtained from Danish nationwide population-based registries and to discuss its research potential for the analyses of risk factors associated with 30-day hospital readmission. We reviewed Danish nationwide registries to obtain information on demographic and social determinants as well as information on health and health care use in a population of hospitalised older people. The sample included all people aged 65+ years discharged from Danish public hospitals in the period from 1 January 2007 to 30 September 2010. We used personal identifiers to link and integrate the data from all events of interest with the outcome measures in the OPRA database. The database contained records of the patients, admissions and variables of interest. The cohort included 1,267,752 admissions for 479,854 unique people. The rate of 30-day all-cause acute readmission was 18.9% ( n=239,077) and the overall 30-day mortality was 5.0% ( n=63,116). The OPRA database provides the possibility of linking data on health and life events in a population of people moving into retirement and ageing. Construction of the database makes it possible to outline individual life and health trajectories over time, transcending organisational boundaries within health care systems. The OPRA database is multi-component and multi-disciplinary in orientation and has been prepared to be used in a wide range of subgroup analyses, including different outcome measures and statistical methods.

An Integrated Risk Index Model Based on Hierarchical Fuzzy Logic for Underground Risk Assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Muhammad Fayaz

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Available space in congested cities is getting scarce due to growing urbanization in the recent past. The utilization of underground space is considered as a solution to the limited space in smart cities. The numbers of underground facilities are growing day by day in the developing world. Typical underground facilities include the transit subway, parking lots, electric lines, water supply and sewer lines. The likelihood of the occurrence of accidents due to underground facilities is a random phenomenon. To avoid any accidental loss, a risk assessment method is required to conduct the continuous risk assessment and report any abnormality before it happens. In this paper, we have proposed a hierarchical fuzzy inference based model for under-ground risk assessment. The proposed hierarchical fuzzy inference architecture reduces the total number of rules from the rule base. Rule reduction is important because the curse of dimensionality damages the transparency and interpretation as it is very tough to understand and justify hundreds or thousands of fuzzy rules. The computation time also increases as rules increase. The proposed model takes 175 rules having eight input parameters to compute the risk index, and the conventional fuzzy logic requires 390,625 rules, having the same number of input parameters to compute risk index. Hence, the proposed model significantly reduces the curse of dimensionality. Rule design for fuzzy logic is also a tedious task. In this paper, we have also introduced new rule schemes, namely maximum rule-based and average rule-based; both schemes can be used interchangeably according to the logic needed for rule design. The experimental results show that the proposed method is a virtuous choice for risk index calculation where the numbers of variables are greater.

Risk-based indicators of Canadians' exposures to environmental carcinogens.

Science.gov (United States)

Setton, Eleanor; Hystad, Perry; Poplawski, Karla; Cheasley, Roslyn; Cervantes-Larios, Alejandro; Keller, C Peter; Demers, Paul A

2013-02-12

Tools for estimating population exposures to environmental carcinogens are required to support evidence-based policies to reduce chronic exposures and associated cancers. Our objective was to develop indicators of population exposure to selected environmental carcinogens that can be easily updated over time, and allow comparisons and prioritization between different carcinogens and exposure pathways. We employed a risk assessment-based approach to produce screening-level estimates of lifetime excess cancer risk for selected substances listed as known carcinogens by the International Agency for Research on Cancer. Estimates of lifetime average daily intake were calculated using population characteristics combined with concentrations (circa 2006) in outdoor air, indoor air, dust, drinking water, and food and beverages from existing monitoring databases or comprehensive literature reviews. Intake estimates were then multiplied by cancer potency factors from Health Canada, the United States Environmental Protection Agency, and the California Office of Environmental Health Hazard Assessment to estimate lifetime excess cancer risks associated with each substance and exposure pathway. Lifetime excess cancer risks in excess of 1 per million people are identified as potential priorities for further attention. Based on data representing average conditions circa 2006, a total of 18 carcinogen-exposure pathways had potential lifetime excess cancer risks greater than 1 per million, based on varying data quality. Carcinogens with moderate to high data quality and lifetime excess cancer risk greater than 1 per million included benzene, 1,3-butadiene and radon in outdoor air; benzene and radon in indoor air; and arsenic and hexavalent chromium in drinking water. Important data gaps were identified for asbestos, hexavalent chromium and diesel exhaust in outdoor and indoor air, while little data were available to assess risk for substances in dust, food and beverages. The ability to

Estimation of unit risk for coke oven emissions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moolgavkar, S.H.; Luebeck, E.G.; Anderson, E.L.

1998-01-01

In 1984, based on epidemiological data on cohorts of coke oven workers, USEPA estimated a unit risk for lung cancer associated with continuous exposure from birth to 1 microg/m 3 of coke oven emissions, of 6.2 x 10 -4 . This risk assessment was based on information on the cohorts available through 1966. Follow-up of these cohorts has now been extended to 1982 and, moreover, individual job histories, which were not available in 1984, have been constructed. In this study, lung cancer mortality in these cohorts of coke oven workers with extended follow-up was analyzed using standard techniques of survival analysis and a new approach based on the two stage clonal expansion model of carcinogenesis. The latter approach allows the explicit consideration of detailed patterns of exposure of each individual in the cohort. The analyses used the extended follow-up data through 1982 and the detailed job histories now available. Based on these analyses, the best estimate of unit risk is 1.5 x 10 -4 with 95% confidence interval = 1.2 x 10 -4 --1.8 x 10 -4

Genome-based comparative analyses of Antarctic and temperate species of Paenibacillus.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Melissa Dsouza

Full Text Available Antarctic soils represent a unique environment characterised by extremes of temperature, salinity, elevated UV radiation, low nutrient and low water content. Despite the harshness of this environment, members of 15 bacterial phyla have been identified in soils of the Ross Sea Region (RSR. However, the survival mechanisms and ecological roles of these phyla are largely unknown. The aim of this study was to investigate whether strains of Paenibacillus darwinianus owe their resilience to substantial genomic changes. For this, genome-based comparative analyses were performed on three P. darwinianus strains, isolated from gamma-irradiated RSR soils, together with nine temperate, soil-dwelling Paenibacillus spp. The genome of each strain was sequenced to over 1,000-fold coverage, then assembled into contigs totalling approximately 3 Mbp per genome. Based on the occurrence of essential, single-copy genes, genome completeness was estimated at approximately 88%. Genome analysis revealed between 3,043-3,091 protein-coding sequences (CDSs, primarily associated with two-component systems, sigma factors, transporters, sporulation and genes induced by cold-shock, oxidative and osmotic stresses. These comparative analyses provide an insight into the metabolic potential of P. darwinianus, revealing potential adaptive mechanisms for survival in Antarctic soils. However, a large proportion of these mechanisms were also identified in temperate Paenibacillus spp., suggesting that these mechanisms are beneficial for growth and survival in a range of soil environments. These analyses have also revealed that the P. darwinianus genomes contain significantly fewer CDSs and have a lower paralogous content. Notwithstanding the incompleteness of the assemblies, the large differences in genome sizes, determined by the number of genes in paralogous clusters and the CDS content, are indicative of genome content scaling. Finally, these sequences are a resource for further

Adverse life events increase risk for postpartum psychiatric episodes: A population-based epidemiologic study.

Science.gov (United States)

Meltzer-Brody, S; Larsen, J T; Petersen, L; Guintivano, J; Florio, A Di; Miller, W C; Sullivan, P F; Munk-Olsen, T

2018-02-01

Trauma histories may increase risk of perinatal psychiatric episodes. We designed an epidemiological population-based cohort study to explore if adverse childhood experiences (ACE) in girls increases risk of later postpartum psychiatric episodes. Using Danish registers, we identified women born in Denmark between January 1980 and December 1998 (129,439 childbirths). Exposure variables were ACE between ages 0 and 15 including: (1) family disruption, (2) parental somatic illness, (3) parental labor market exclusion, (4) parental criminality, (5) parental death, (6) placement in out-of-home care, (7) parental psychopathology excluding substance use, and (8) parental substance use disorder. Primary outcome was first occurrence of in- or outpatient contact 0-6 months postpartum at a psychiatric treatment facility with any psychiatric diagnoses, ICD-10, F00-F99 (N = 651). We conducted survival analyses using Cox proportional hazard regressions of postpartum psychiatric episodes. Approximately 52% of the sample experienced ACE, significantly increasing risk of any postpartum psychiatric diagnosis. Highest risks were observed among women who experienced out-of-home placement, hazard ratio (HR) 2.57 (95% CI: 1.90-3.48). Women experiencing two adverse life events had higher risks of postpartum psychiatric diagnosis HR: 1.88 (95% CI: 1.51-2.36), compared to those with one ACE, HR: 1.24 (95% CI: 1.03-49) and no ACE, HR: 1.00 (reference group). ACE primarily due to parental psychopathology and disability contributes to increased risk of postpartum psychiatric episodes; and greater numbers of ACE increases risk for postpartum psychiatric illness with an observed dose-response effect. Future work should explore genetic and environmental factors that increase risk and/or confer resilience. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

MO-E-9A-01: Risk Based Quality Management: TG100 In Action

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Huq, M [University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, Pittsburgh, PA (United States); Palta, J [Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, VA (United States); Dunscombe, P [Tom Baker Cancer Centre, Calgary, AB (Canada); Thomadsen, B [University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States)

2014-06-15

One of the goals of quality management in radiation therapy is to gain high confidence that patients will receive the prescribed treatment correctly. To accomplish these goals professional societies such as the American Association of Physicists in Medicine (AAPM) has published many quality assurance (QA), quality control (QC), and quality management (QM) guidance documents. In general, the recommendations provided in these documents have emphasized on performing device-specific QA at the expense of process flow and protection of the patient against catastrophic errors. Analyses of radiation therapy incidents find that they are most often caused by flaws in the overall therapy process, from initial consult through final treatment, than by isolated hardware or computer failures detectable by traditional physics QA. This challenge is shared by many intrinsically hazardous industries. Risk assessment tools and analysis techniques have been developed to define, identify, and eliminate known and/or potential failures, problems, or errors, from a system, process and/or service before they reach the customer. These include, but are not limited to, process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA), fault tree analysis (FTA), and establishment of a quality management program that best avoids the faults and risks that have been identified in the overall process. These tools can be easily adapted to radiation therapy practices because of their simplicity and effectiveness to provide efficient ways to enhance the safety and quality of treatment processes. Task group 100 (TG100) of AAPM has developed a risk-based quality management program that uses these tools. This session will be devoted to a discussion of these tools and how these tools can be used in a given radiotherapy clinic to develop a risk based QM program. Learning Objectives: Learn how to design a process map for a radiotherapy process. Learn how to perform a FMEA analysis for a given process. Learn what

MO-E-9A-01: Risk Based Quality Management: TG100 In Action

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huq, M; Palta, J; Dunscombe, P; Thomadsen, B

2014-01-01

One of the goals of quality management in radiation therapy is to gain high confidence that patients will receive the prescribed treatment correctly. To accomplish these goals professional societies such as the American Association of Physicists in Medicine (AAPM) has published many quality assurance (QA), quality control (QC), and quality management (QM) guidance documents. In general, the recommendations provided in these documents have emphasized on performing device-specific QA at the expense of process flow and protection of the patient against catastrophic errors. Analyses of radiation therapy incidents find that they are most often caused by flaws in the overall therapy process, from initial consult through final treatment, than by isolated hardware or computer failures detectable by traditional physics QA. This challenge is shared by many intrinsically hazardous industries. Risk assessment tools and analysis techniques have been developed to define, identify, and eliminate known and/or potential failures, problems, or errors, from a system, process and/or service before they reach the customer. These include, but are not limited to, process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA), fault tree analysis (FTA), and establishment of a quality management program that best avoids the faults and risks that have been identified in the overall process. These tools can be easily adapted to radiation therapy practices because of their simplicity and effectiveness to provide efficient ways to enhance the safety and quality of treatment processes. Task group 100 (TG100) of AAPM has developed a risk-based quality management program that uses these tools. This session will be devoted to a discussion of these tools and how these tools can be used in a given radiotherapy clinic to develop a risk based QM program. Learning Objectives: Learn how to design a process map for a radiotherapy process. Learn how to perform a FMEA analysis for a given process. Learn what

Development in risk level in land-based installations in Norwegian petroleum industry. Phase 7 report 2006; Utvikling i risikonivaa i landbaserte anlegg i norsk petroleumsvirksomhet. Fase 7 rapport 2006

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2007-04-15

The project's main objective is to establish and evaluate status and trends for the risk level for the petroleum industry as a whole. The report focuses on land-based installations, with emphasis on the six installations in normal operation. 2006 is the first year data has been collected from the land-based plants. Reports are therefore carried out in a limited extent, with the main focus on registration, analyses and evaluations of data according to defined risk and accident situations. There is a variation between the plants in the reporting of data. It has been considered extending the land-based part of the project in phase 8 with social science analyses in order to provide a broader picture of the health, security and environmental (HSE) conditions and to gain a complementary perspective at the conditions at the installations (ml)