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Sample records for risk adjusted mortality

  1. State infant mortality: an ecologic study to determine modifiable risks and adjusted infant mortality rates.

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    Paul, David A; Mackley, Amy; Locke, Robert G; Stefano, John L; Kroelinger, Charlan

    2009-05-01

    To determine factors contributing to state infant mortality rates (IMR) and develop an adjusted IMR in the United States for 2001 and 2002. Ecologic study of factors contributing to state IMR. State IMR for 2001 and 2002 were obtained from the United States linked death and birth certificate data from the National Center for Health Statistics. Factors investigated using multivariable linear regression included state racial demographics, ethnicity, state population, median income, education, teen birth rate, proportion of obesity, smoking during pregnancy, diabetes, hypertension, cesarean delivery, prenatal care, health insurance, self-report of mental illness, and number of in-vitro fertilization procedures. Final risk adjusted IMR's were standardized and states were compared with the United States adjusted rates. Models for IMR in individual states in 2001 (r2 = 0.66, P < 0.01) and 2002 (r2 = 0.81, P < 0.01) were tested. African-American race, teen birth rate, and smoking during pregnancy remained independently associated with state infant mortality rates for 2001 and 2002. Ninety five percent confidence intervals (CI) were calculated around the regression lines to model the expected IMR. After adjustment, some states maintained a consistent IMR; for instance, Vermont and New Hampshire remained low, while Delaware and Louisiana remained high. However, other states such as Mississippi, which have traditionally high infant mortality rates, remained within the expected 95% CI for IMR after adjustment indicating confounding affected the initial unadjusted rates. Non-modifiable demographic variables, including the percentage of non-Hispanic African-American and Hispanic populations of the state are major factors contributing to individual variation in state IMR. Race and ethnicity may confound or modify the IMR in states that shifted inside or outside the 95% CI following adjustment. Other factors including smoking during pregnancy and teen birth rate, which are

  2. Latino risk-adjusted mortality in the men screened for the Multiple Risk Factor Intervention Trial.

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    Thomas, Avis J; Eberly, Lynn E; Neaton, James D; Smith, George Davey

    2005-09-15

    Latinos are now the largest minority in the United States, but their distinctive health needs and mortality patterns remain poorly understood. Proportional hazards regressions were used to compare Latino versus White risk- and income-adjusted mortality over 25 years' follow-up from 5,846 Latino and 300,647 White men screened for the Multiple Risk Factor Intervention Trial. Men were aged 35-57 years and residing in 14 states when screened in 1973-1975. Data on coronary heart disease risk factors, self-reported race/ethnicity, and home addresses were obtained at baseline; income was estimated by linking addresses to census data. Mortality follow-up through 1999 was obtained using the National Death Index. The fully adjusted Latino/White hazard ratio for all-cause mortality was 0.82 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.77, 0.87), based on 1,085 Latino and 73,807 White deaths; this pattern prevailed over time and across states (thus, likely across Latino subgroups). Hazard ratios were significantly greater than one for stroke (hazard ratio = 1.30, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.68), liver cancer (hazard ratio = 2.02, 95% CI: 1.21, 3.37), and infection (hazard ratio = 1.69, 95% CI: 1.24, 2.32). A substudy found only minor racial/ethnic differences in the quality of Social Security numbers, birth dates, soundex-adjusted names, and National Death Index searches. Results were not likely an artifact of return migration or incomplete mortality data.

  3. Use of risk-adjusted CUSUM charts to monitor 30-day mortality in Danish hospitals

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    Rasmussen TB

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Thomas Bøjer Rasmussen, Sinna Pilgaard Ulrichsen, Mette Nørgaard Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Aarhus University Hospital, Aarhus N, Denmark Background: Monitoring hospital outcomes and clinical processes as a measure of clinical performance is an integral part of modern health care. The risk-adjusted cumulative sum (CUSUM chart is a frequently used sequential analysis technique that can be implemented to monitor a wide range of different types of outcomes.Objective: The aim of this study was to describe how risk-adjusted CUSUM charts based on population-based nationwide medical registers were used to monitor 30-day mortality in Danish hospitals and to give an example on how alarms of increased hospital mortality from the charts can guide further in-depth analyses.Materials and methods: We used routinely collected administrative data from the Danish National Patient Registry and the Danish Civil Registration System to create risk-adjusted CUSUM charts. We monitored 30-day mortality after hospital admission with one of 77 selected diagnoses in 24 hospital units in Denmark in 2015. The charts were set to detect a 50% increase in 30-day mortality, and control limits were determined by simulations.Results: Among 1,085,576 hospital admissions, 441,352 admissions had one of the 77 selected diagnoses as their primary diagnosis and were included in the risk-adjusted CUSUM charts. The charts yielded a total of eight alarms of increased mortality. The median of the hospitals’ estimated average time to detect a 50% increase in 30-day mortality was 50 days (interquartile interval, 43;54. In the selected example of an alarm, descriptive analyses indicated performance problems with 30-day mortality following hip fracture surgery and diagnosis of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.Conclusion: The presented implementation of risk-adjusted CUSUM charts can detect significant increases in 30-day mortality within 2 months, on average, in most

  4. Improving Risk Adjustment for Mortality After Pediatric Cardiac Surgery: The UK PRAiS2 Model.

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    Rogers, Libby; Brown, Katherine L; Franklin, Rodney C; Ambler, Gareth; Anderson, David; Barron, David J; Crowe, Sonya; English, Kate; Stickley, John; Tibby, Shane; Tsang, Victor; Utley, Martin; Witter, Thomas; Pagel, Christina

    2017-07-01

    Partial Risk Adjustment in Surgery (PRAiS), a risk model for 30-day mortality after children's heart surgery, has been used by the UK National Congenital Heart Disease Audit to report expected risk-adjusted survival since 2013. This study aimed to improve the model by incorporating additional comorbidity and diagnostic information. The model development dataset was all procedures performed between 2009 and 2014 in all UK and Ireland congenital cardiac centers. The outcome measure was death within each 30-day surgical episode. Model development followed an iterative process of clinical discussion and development and assessment of models using logistic regression under 25 × 5 cross-validation. Performance was measured using Akaike information criterion, the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC), and calibration. The final model was assessed in an external 2014 to 2015 validation dataset. The development dataset comprised 21,838 30-day surgical episodes, with 539 deaths (mortality, 2.5%). The validation dataset comprised 4,207 episodes, with 97 deaths (mortality, 2.3%). The updated risk model included 15 procedural, 11 diagnostic, and 4 comorbidity groupings, and nonlinear functions of age and weight. Performance under cross-validation was: median AUC of 0.83 (range, 0.82 to 0.83), median calibration slope and intercept of 0.92 (range, 0.64 to 1.25) and -0.23 (range, -1.08 to 0.85) respectively. In the validation dataset, the AUC was 0.86 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.82 to 0.89), and the calibration slope and intercept were 1.01 (95% CI, 0.83 to 1.18) and 0.11 (95% CI, -0.45 to 0.67), respectively, showing excellent performance. A more sophisticated PRAiS2 risk model for UK use was developed with additional comorbidity and diagnostic information, alongside age and weight as nonlinear variables. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Development and Evaluation of an Automated Machine Learning Algorithm for In-Hospital Mortality Risk Adjustment Among Critical Care Patients.

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    Delahanty, Ryan J; Kaufman, David; Jones, Spencer S

    2018-06-01

    Risk adjustment algorithms for ICU mortality are necessary for measuring and improving ICU performance. Existing risk adjustment algorithms are not widely adopted. Key barriers to adoption include licensing and implementation costs as well as labor costs associated with human-intensive data collection. Widespread adoption of electronic health records makes automated risk adjustment feasible. Using modern machine learning methods and open source tools, we developed and evaluated a retrospective risk adjustment algorithm for in-hospital mortality among ICU patients. The Risk of Inpatient Death score can be fully automated and is reliant upon data elements that are generated in the course of usual hospital processes. One hundred thirty-one ICUs in 53 hospitals operated by Tenet Healthcare. A cohort of 237,173 ICU patients discharged between January 2014 and December 2016. The data were randomly split into training (36 hospitals), and validation (17 hospitals) data sets. Feature selection and model training were carried out using the training set while the discrimination, calibration, and accuracy of the model were assessed in the validation data set. Model discrimination was evaluated based on the area under receiver operating characteristic curve; accuracy and calibration were assessed via adjusted Brier scores and visual analysis of calibration curves. Seventeen features, including a mix of clinical and administrative data elements, were retained in the final model. The Risk of Inpatient Death score demonstrated excellent discrimination (area under receiver operating characteristic curve = 0.94) and calibration (adjusted Brier score = 52.8%) in the validation dataset; these results compare favorably to the published performance statistics for the most commonly used mortality risk adjustment algorithms. Low adoption of ICU mortality risk adjustment algorithms impedes progress toward increasing the value of the healthcare delivered in ICUs. The Risk of Inpatient Death

  6. Adjustment for smoking reduces radiation risk: fifth analysis of mortality of nuclear industry workers in Japan, 1999-2010

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    Kudo, S.; Ishida, J.; Yoshimoto, K.; Mizuno, S.; Ohshima, S.; Kasagi, F., E-mail: s_kudo@rea.or.jp [Instituto of Radiation Epidemiology, Radiation Effects Association, 1-9-16 Kajicho, Chiyoda-ku, 101-0044 Tokyo (Japan)

    2015-10-15

    Full text: Many cohort studies among nuclear industry workers have been carried out to determine the possible health effects of low-level radiation. In those studies, confounding factors, for example, age was adjusted to exclude the effect of difference of mortality by age to estimate radiation risk. But there are few studies adjusting for smoking that is known as a strong factor which affects mortality. Radiation Effects Association (Rea) initiated a cohort study of nuclear industry workers mortality in 1990. To examine non-radiation factors confounding on the mortality risk among the radiation workers, Rea have performed life-style questionnaire surveys among the part of workers at 1997 and 2003 and found the correlation between radiation dose and smoking rate. Mortality follow-up were made on 75,442 male respondents for an average of 8.3 years during the observation period 1999-2010. Estimates of Excess Relative Risk percent (Err %) per 10 mSv were obtained by using the Poisson regression. The Err for all causes was statistically significant (1.05 (90 % CI 0.31 : 1.80)), but no longer significant after adjusting for smoking (0.45 (-0.24 : 1.13)). The Err for all cancers excluding leukemia was not significant (0.92 (-0.30 : 2.16)), but after adjusting for smoking, it decreased (0.36 (-0.79 : 1.50)). Thus smoking has a large effect to obscure a radiation risk, so adjustment for smoking is important to estimate radiation risk. (Author)

  7. Adjustment for smoking reduces radiation risk: fifth analysis of mortality of nuclear industry workers in Japan, 1999-2010

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kudo, S.; Ishida, J.; Yoshimoto, K.; Mizuno, S.; Ohshima, S.; Kasagi, F.

    2015-10-01

    Full text: Many cohort studies among nuclear industry workers have been carried out to determine the possible health effects of low-level radiation. In those studies, confounding factors, for example, age was adjusted to exclude the effect of difference of mortality by age to estimate radiation risk. But there are few studies adjusting for smoking that is known as a strong factor which affects mortality. Radiation Effects Association (Rea) initiated a cohort study of nuclear industry workers mortality in 1990. To examine non-radiation factors confounding on the mortality risk among the radiation workers, Rea have performed life-style questionnaire surveys among the part of workers at 1997 and 2003 and found the correlation between radiation dose and smoking rate. Mortality follow-up were made on 75,442 male respondents for an average of 8.3 years during the observation period 1999-2010. Estimates of Excess Relative Risk percent (Err %) per 10 mSv were obtained by using the Poisson regression. The Err for all causes was statistically significant (1.05 (90 % CI 0.31 : 1.80)), but no longer significant after adjusting for smoking (0.45 (-0.24 : 1.13)). The Err for all cancers excluding leukemia was not significant (0.92 (-0.30 : 2.16)), but after adjusting for smoking, it decreased (0.36 (-0.79 : 1.50)). Thus smoking has a large effect to obscure a radiation risk, so adjustment for smoking is important to estimate radiation risk. (Author)

  8. [Do laymen understand information about hospital quality? An empirical verification using risk-adjusted mortality rates as an example].

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    Sander, Uwe; Kolb, Benjamin; Taheri, Fatemeh; Patzelt, Christiane; Emmert, Martin

    2017-11-01

    The effect of public reporting to improve quality in healthcare is reduced by the limited intelligibility of information about the quality of healthcare providers. This may result in worse health-related choices especially for older people and those with lower levels of education. There is, as yet, little information as to whether laymen understand the concepts behind quality comparisons and if this comprehension is correlated with hospital choices. An instrument with 20 items was developed to analyze the intelligibility of five technical terms which were used in German hospital report cards to explain risk-adjusted death rates. Two online presentations of risk-adjusted death rates for five hospitals in the style of hospital report cards were developed. An online survey of 353 volunteers tested the comprehension of the risk-adjusted mortality rates and included an experimental hospital choice. The intelligibility of five technical terms was tested: risk-adjusted, actual and expected death rate, reference range and national average. The percentages of correct answers for the five technical terms were in the range of 75.0-60.2%. Between 23.8% and 5.1% of the respondents were not able to answer the question about the technical term itself. The least comprehensible technical terms were "risk-adjusted death rate" and "reference range". The intelligibility of the 20 items that were used to test the comprehension of the risk-adjusted mortality was between 89.5% and 14.2%. The two items that proved to be least comprehensible were related to the technical terms "risk-adjusted death rate" and "reference range". For all five technical terms it was found that a better comprehension correlated significantly with better hospital choices. We found a better than average intelligibility for the technical terms "actual and expected death rate" and for "national average". The least understandable were "risk-adjusted death rate" and "reference range". Since the self

  9. Process monitoring in intensive care with the use of cumulative expected minus observed mortality and risk-adjusted P charts.

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    Cockings, Jerome G L; Cook, David A; Iqbal, Rehana K

    2006-02-01

    A health care system is a complex adaptive system. The effect of a single intervention, incorporated into a complex clinical environment, may be different from that expected. A national database such as the Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre (ICNARC) Case Mix Programme in the UK represents a centralised monitoring, surveillance and reporting system for retrospective quality and comparative audit. This can be supplemented with real-time process monitoring at a local level for continuous process improvement, allowing early detection of the impact of both unplanned and deliberately imposed changes in the clinical environment. Demographic and UK Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) data were prospectively collected on all patients admitted to a UK regional hospital between 1 January 2003 and 30 June 2004 in accordance with the ICNARC Case Mix Programme. We present a cumulative expected minus observed (E-O) plot and the risk-adjusted p chart as methods of continuous process monitoring. We describe the construction and interpretation of these charts and show how they can be used to detect planned or unplanned organisational process changes affecting mortality outcomes. Five hundred and eighty-nine adult patients were included. The overall death rate was 0.78 of predicted. Calibration showed excess survival in ranges above 30% risk of death. The E-O plot confirmed a survival above that predicted. Small transient variations were seen in the slope that could represent random effects, or real but transient changes in the quality of care. The risk-adjusted p chart showed several observations below the 2 SD control limits of the expected mortality rate. These plots provide rapid analysis of risk-adjusted performance suitable for local application and interpretation. The E-O chart provided rapid easily visible feedback of changes in risk-adjusted mortality, while the risk-adjusted p chart allowed statistical evaluation. Local analysis of

  10. Performance of risk-adjusted control charts to monitor in-hospital mortality of intensive care unit patients: A simulation study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koetsier, Antonie; de Keizer, Nicolette F.; de Jonge, Evert; Cook, David A.; Peek, Niels

    2012-01-01

    Objectives: Increases in case-mix adjusted mortality may be indications of decreasing quality of care. Risk-adjusted control charts can be used for in-hospital mortality monitoring in intensive care units by issuing a warning signal when there are more deaths than expected. The aim of this study was

  11. What is the empirical evidence that hospitals with higher-risk adjusted mortality rates provide poorer quality care? A systematic review of the literature

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    Mohammed Mohammed A

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Despite increasing interest and publication of risk-adjusted hospital mortality rates, the relationship with underlying quality of care remains unclear. We undertook a systematic review to ascertain the extent to which variations in risk-adjusted mortality rates were associated with differences in quality of care. Methods We identified studies in which risk-adjusted mortality and quality of care had been reported in more than one hospital. We adopted an iterative search strategy using three databases – Medline, HealthSTAR and CINAHL from 1966, 1975 and 1982 respectively. We identified potentially relevant studies on the basis of the title or abstract. We obtained these papers and included those which met our inclusion criteria. Results From an initial yield of 6,456 papers, 36 studies met the inclusion criteria. Several of these studies considered more than one process-versus-risk-adjusted mortality relationship. In total we found 51 such relationships in a widen range of clinical conditions using a variety of methods. A positive correlation between better quality of care and risk-adjusted mortality was found in under half the relationships (26/51 51% but the remainder showed no correlation (16/51 31% or a paradoxical correlation (9/51 18%. Conclusion The general notion that hospitals with higher risk-adjusted mortality have poorer quality of care is neither consistent nor reliable.

  12. Epidemiology, Management, and Risk-Adjusted Mortality of ICU-Acquired Enterococcal Bacteremia

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    Ong, David S Y; Bonten, Marc J M; Safdari, Khatera; Spitoni, Cristian; Frencken, Jos F; Witteveen, Esther; Horn, Janneke; Klein Klouwenberg, Peter M C; Cremer, Olaf L

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND:  Enterococcal bacteremia has been associated with high case fatality, but it remains unknown to what extent death is caused by these infections. We therefore quantified attributable mortality of intensive care unit (ICU)-acquired bacteremia caused by enterococci. METHODS:  From 2011 to

  13. Inclusion of Highest Glasgow Coma Scale Motor Component Score in Mortality Risk Adjustment for Benchmarking of Trauma Center Performance.

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    Gomez, David; Byrne, James P; Alali, Aziz S; Xiong, Wei; Hoeft, Chris; Neal, Melanie; Subacius, Harris; Nathens, Avery B

    2017-12-01

    The Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) is the most widely used measure of traumatic brain injury (TBI) severity. Currently, the arrival GCS motor component (mGCS) score is used in risk-adjustment models for external benchmarking of mortality. However, there is evidence that the highest mGCS score in the first 24 hours after injury might be a better predictor of death. Our objective was to evaluate the impact of including the highest mGCS score on the performance of risk-adjustment models and subsequent external benchmarking results. Data were derived from the Trauma Quality Improvement Program analytic dataset (January 2014 through March 2015) and were limited to the severe TBI cohort (16 years or older, isolated head injury, GCS ≤8). Risk-adjustment models were created that varied in the mGCS covariates only (initial score, highest score, or both initial and highest mGCS scores). Model performance and fit, as well as external benchmarking results, were compared. There were 6,553 patients with severe TBI across 231 trauma centers included. Initial and highest mGCS scores were different in 47% of patients (n = 3,097). Model performance and fit improved when both initial and highest mGCS scores were included, as evidenced by improved C-statistic, Akaike Information Criterion, and adjusted R-squared values. Three-quarters of centers changed their adjusted odds ratio decile, 2.6% of centers changed outlier status, and 45% of centers exhibited a ≥0.5-SD change in the odds ratio of death after including highest mGCS score in the model. This study supports the concept that additional clinical information has the potential to not only improve the performance of current risk-adjustment models, but can also have a meaningful impact on external benchmarking strategies. Highest mGCS score is a good potential candidate for inclusion in additional models. Copyright © 2017 American College of Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Evaluating variation in use of definitive therapy and risk-adjusted prostate cancer mortality in England and the USA.

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    Sachdeva, Ashwin; van der Meulen, Jan H; Emberton, Mark; Cathcart, Paul J

    2015-02-24

    Prostate cancer mortality (PCM) in the USA is among the lowest in the world, whereas PCM in England is among the highest in Europe. This paper aims to assess the association of variation in use of definitive therapy on risk-adjusted PCM in England as compared with the USA. Observational study. Cancer registry data from England and the USA. Men diagnosed with non-metastatic prostate cancer (PCa) in England and the USA between 2004 and 2008. Competing-risks survival analyses to estimate subhazard ratios (SHR) of PCM adjusted for age, ethnicity, year of diagnosis, Gleason score (GS) and clinical tumour (cT) stage. 222,163 men were eligible for inclusion. Compared with American patients, English patients were more likely to present at an older age (70-79 years: England 44.2%, USA 29.3%, pUSA 8.6%, pUSA 11.2%, pUSA 77%, pUSA. This difference may be explained by less frequent use of definitive therapy in England. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  15. Infections and risk-adjusted length of stay and hospital mortality in Polish Neonatology Intensive Care Units

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    A. Różańska

    2015-06-01

    Conclusions: The general condition of VLBW infants statistically increase both their risk of mortality and LOS; this is in contrast to the presence of infection, which significantly prolonged LOS only.

  16. Auditing Neonatal Intensive Care: Is PREM a Good Alternative to CRIB for Mortality Risk Adjustment in Premature Infants?

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    Guenther, Kilian; Vach, Werner; Kachel, Walter; Bruder, Ingo; Hentschel, Roland

    2015-01-01

    Comparing outcomes at different neonatal intensive care units (NICUs) requires adjustment for intrinsic risk. The Clinical Risk Index for Babies (CRIB) is a widely used risk model, but it has been criticized for being affected by therapeutic decisions. The Prematurity Risk Evaluation Measure (PREM) is not supposed to be prone to treatment bias, but has not yet been validated. We aimed to validate the PREM, compare its accuracy to that of the original and modified versions of the CRIB and CRIB-II, and examine the congruence of risk categorization. Very-low-birth-weight (VLBW) infants with a gestational age (GA) auditing. It could be useful to combine scores. © 2015 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  17. Risk-adjustment models for heart failure patients' 30-day mortality and readmission rates: the incremental value of clinical data abstracted from medical charts beyond hospital discharge record.

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    Lenzi, Jacopo; Avaldi, Vera Maria; Hernandez-Boussard, Tina; Descovich, Carlo; Castaldini, Ilaria; Urbinati, Stefano; Di Pasquale, Giuseppe; Rucci, Paola; Fantini, Maria Pia

    2016-09-06

    Hospital discharge records (HDRs) are routinely used to assess outcomes of care and to compare hospital performance for heart failure. The advantages of using clinical data from medical charts to improve risk-adjustment models remain controversial. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the additional contribution of clinical variables to HDR-based 30-day mortality and readmission models in patients with heart failure. This retrospective observational study included all patients residing in the Local Healthcare Authority of Bologna (about 1 million inhabitants) who were discharged in 2012 from one of three hospitals in the area with a diagnosis of heart failure. For each study outcome, we compared the discrimination of the two risk-adjustment models (i.e., HDR-only model and HDR-clinical model) through the area under the ROC curve (AUC). A total of 1145 and 1025 patients were included in the mortality and readmission analyses, respectively. Adding clinical data significantly improved the discrimination of the mortality model (AUC = 0.84 vs. 0.73, p < 0.001), but not the discrimination of the readmission model (AUC = 0.65 vs. 0.63, p = 0.08). We identified clinical variables that significantly improved the discrimination of the HDR-only model for 30-day mortality following heart failure. By contrast, clinical variables made little contribution to the discrimination of the HDR-only model for 30-day readmission.

  18. Comparison of the performance of the CMS Hierarchical Condition Category (CMS-HCC) risk adjuster with the Charlson and Elixhauser comorbidity measures in predicting mortality.

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    Li, Pengxiang; Kim, Michelle M; Doshi, Jalpa A

    2010-08-20

    The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) has implemented the CMS-Hierarchical Condition Category (CMS-HCC) model to risk adjust Medicare capitation payments. This study intends to assess the performance of the CMS-HCC risk adjustment method and to compare it to the Charlson and Elixhauser comorbidity measures in predicting in-hospital and six-month mortality in Medicare beneficiaries. The study used the 2005-2006 Chronic Condition Data Warehouse (CCW) 5% Medicare files. The primary study sample included all community-dwelling fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries with a hospital admission between January 1st, 2006 and June 30th, 2006. Additionally, four disease-specific samples consisting of subgroups of patients with principal diagnoses of congestive heart failure (CHF), stroke, diabetes mellitus (DM), and acute myocardial infarction (AMI) were also selected. Four analytic files were generated for each sample by extracting inpatient and/or outpatient claims for each patient. Logistic regressions were used to compare the methods. Model performance was assessed using the c-statistic, the Akaike's information criterion (AIC), the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and their 95% confidence intervals estimated using bootstrapping. The CMS-HCC had statistically significant higher c-statistic and lower AIC and BIC values than the Charlson and Elixhauser methods in predicting in-hospital and six-month mortality across all samples in analytic files that included claims from the index hospitalization. Exclusion of claims for the index hospitalization generally led to drops in model performance across all methods with the highest drops for the CMS-HCC method. However, the CMS-HCC still performed as well or better than the other two methods. The CMS-HCC method demonstrated better performance relative to the Charlson and Elixhauser methods in predicting in-hospital and six-month mortality. The CMS-HCC model is preferred over the Charlson and Elixhauser methods

  19. Differences in case-mix can influence the comparison of standardised mortality ratios even with optimal risk adjustment: an analysis of data from paediatric intensive care.

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    Manktelow, Bradley N; Evans, T Alun; Draper, Elizabeth S

    2014-09-01

    The publication of clinical outcomes for consultant surgeons in 10 specialties within the NHS has, along with national clinical audits, highlighted the importance of measuring and reporting outcomes with the aim of monitoring quality of care. Such information is vital to be able to identify good and poor practice and to inform patient choice. The need to adequately adjust outcomes for differences in case-mix has long been recognised as being necessary to provide 'like-for-like' comparisons between providers. However, directly comparing values of the standardised mortality ratio (SMR) between different healthcare providers can be misleading even when the risk-adjustment perfectly quantifies the risk of a poor outcome in the reference population. An example is shown from paediatric intensive care. Using observed case-mix differences for 33 paediatric intensive care units (PICUs) in the UK and Ireland for 2009-2011, SMRs were calculated under four different scenarios where, in each scenario, all of the PICUs were performing identically for each patient type. Each scenario represented a clinically plausible difference in outcome from the reference population. Despite the fact that the outcome for any patient was the same no matter which PICU they were to be admitted to, differences between the units were seen when compared using the SMR: scenario 1, 1.07-1.21; scenario 2, 1.00-1.14; scenario 3, 1.04-1.13; scenario 4, 1.00-1.09. Even if two healthcare providers are performing equally for each type of patient, if their patient populations differ in case-mix their SMRs will not necessarily take the same value. Clinical teams and commissioners must always keep in mind this weakness of the SMR when making decisions. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  20. [Factors affecting in-hospital mortality in patients with sepsis: Development of a risk-adjusted model based on administrative data from German hospitals].

    Science.gov (United States)

    König, Volker; Kolzter, Olaf; Albuszies, Gerd; Thölen, Frank

    2018-05-01

    Inpatient administrative data from hospitals is already used nationally and internationally in many areas of internal and public quality assurance in healthcare. For sepsis as the principal condition, only a few published approaches are available for Germany. The aim of this investigation is to identify factors influencing hospital mortality by employing appropriate analytical methods in order to improve the internal quality management of sepsis. The analysis was based on data from 754,727 DRG cases of the CLINOTEL hospital network charged in 2015. The association then included 45 hospitals of all supply levels with the exception of university hospitals (range of beds: 100 to 1,172 per hospital). Cases of sepsis were identified via the ICD codes of their principal diagnosis. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to determine the factors influencing in-hospital lethality for this population. The model was developed using sociodemographic and other potential variables that could be derived from the DRG data set, and taking into account current literature data. The model obtained was validated with inpatient administrative data of 2016 (51 hospitals, 850,776 DRG cases). Following the definition of the inclusion criteria, 5,608 cases of sepsis (2016: 6,384 cases) were identified in 2015. A total of 12 significant and, over both years, stable factors were identified, including age, severity of sepsis, reason for hospital admission and various comorbidities. The AUC value of the model, as a measure of predictability, is above 0.8 (H-L test p>0.05, R 2 value=0.27), which is an excellent result. The CLINOTEL model of risk adjustment for in-hospital lethality can be used to determine the mortality probability of patients with sepsis as principal diagnosis with a very high degree of accuracy, taking into account the case mix. Further studies are needed to confirm whether the model presented here will prove its value in the internal quality assurance of hospitals

  1. Inclusion of Functional Status Measures in the Risk Adjustment of 30-Day Mortality After Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement: A Report From the Society of Thoracic Surgeons/American College of Cardiology TVT Registry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnold, Suzanne V; O'Brien, Sean M; Vemulapalli, Sreekanth; Cohen, David J; Stebbins, Amanda; Brennan, J Matthew; Shahian, David M; Grover, Fred L; Holmes, David R; Thourani, Vinod H; Peterson, Eric D; Edwards, Fred H

    2018-03-26

    The aim of this study was to develop and validate a risk adjustment model for 30-day mortality after transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) that accounted for both standard clinical factors and pre-procedural health status and frailty. Assessment of risk for TAVR is important both for patient selection and provider comparisons. Prior efforts for risk adjustment have focused on in-hospital mortality, which is easily obtainable but can be biased because of early discharge of ill patients. Using data from patients who underwent TAVR as part of the Society of Thoracic Surgeons/American College of Cardiology TVT (Transcatheter Valve Therapy) Registry (June 2013 to May 2016), a hierarchical logistic regression model to estimate risk for 30-day mortality after TAVR based only on pre-procedural factors and access site was developed and internally validated. The model included factors from the original TVT Registry in-hospital mortality model but added the Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire (health status) and gait speed (5-m walk test). Among 21,661 TAVR patients at 188 sites, 1,025 (4.7%) died within 30 days. Independent predictors of 30-day death included older age, low body weight, worse renal function, peripheral artery disease, home oxygen, prior myocardial infarction, left main coronary artery disease, tricuspid regurgitation, nonfemoral access, worse baseline health status, and inability to walk. The predicted 30-day mortality risk ranged from 1.1% (lowest decile of risk) to 13.8% (highest decile of risk). The model was able to stratify risk on the basis of patient factors with good discrimination (C = 0.71 [derivation], C = 0.70 [split-sample validation]) and excellent calibration, both overall and in key patient subgroups. A clinical risk model was developed for 30-day death after TAVR that included clinical data as well as health status and frailty. This model will facilitate tracking outcomes over time as TAVR expands to lower risk patients and

  2. Development and Validation of an Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality Indicator for Mortality After Congenital Heart Surgery Harmonized With Risk Adjustment for Congenital Heart Surgery (RACHS-1) Methodology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenkins, Kathy J; Koch Kupiec, Jennifer; Owens, Pamela L; Romano, Patrick S; Geppert, Jeffrey J; Gauvreau, Kimberlee

    2016-05-20

    The National Quality Forum previously approved a quality indicator for mortality after congenital heart surgery developed by the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ). Several parameters of the validated Risk Adjustment for Congenital Heart Surgery (RACHS-1) method were included, but others differed. As part of the National Quality Forum endorsement maintenance process, developers were asked to harmonize the 2 methodologies. Parameters that were identical between the 2 methods were retained. AHRQ's Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project State Inpatient Databases (SID) 2008 were used to select optimal parameters where differences existed, with a goal to maximize model performance and face validity. Inclusion criteria were not changed and included all discharges for patients model includes procedure risk group, age (0-28 days, 29-90 days, 91-364 days, 1-17 years), low birth weight (500-2499 g), other congenital anomalies (Clinical Classifications Software 217, except for 758.xx), multiple procedures, and transfer-in status. Among 17 945 eligible cases in the SID 2008, the c statistic for model performance was 0.82. In the SID 2013 validation data set, the c statistic was 0.82. Risk-adjusted mortality rates by center ranged from 0.9% to 4.1% (5th-95th percentile). Congenital heart surgery programs can now obtain national benchmarking reports by applying AHRQ Quality Indicator software to hospital administrative data, based on the harmonized RACHS-1 method, with high discrimination and face validity. © 2016 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley Blackwell.

  3. Persistent insomnia is associated with mortality risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parthasarathy, Sairam; Vasquez, Monica M; Halonen, Marilyn; Bootzin, Richard; Quan, Stuart F; Martinez, Fernando D; Guerra, Stefano

    2015-03-01

    Insomnia has been associated with mortality risk, but whether this association is different in subjects with persistent vs intermittent insomnia is unclear. Additionally, the role of systemic inflammation in such an association is unknown. We used data from a community-based cohort to determine whether persistent or intermittent insomnia, defined based on persistence of symptoms over a 6-year period, was associated with death during the following 20 years of follow-up. We also determined whether changes in serum C-reactive protein (CRP) levels measured over 2 decades between study initiation and insomnia determination were different for the persistent, intermittent, and never insomnia groups. The results were adjusted for confounders such as age, sex, body mass index, smoking, physical activity, alcohol, and sedatives. Of the 1409 adult participants, 249 (18%) had intermittent and 128 (9%) had persistent insomnia. During a 20-year follow-up period, 318 participants died (118 due to cardiopulmonary disease). In adjusted Cox proportional-hazards models, participants with persistent insomnia (adjusted hazards ratio [HR] 1.58; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.02-2.45) but not intermittent insomnia (HR 1.22; 95% CI, 0.86-1.74) were more likely to die than participants without insomnia. Serum CRP levels were higher and increased at a steeper rate in subjects with persistent insomnia as compared with intermittent (P = .04) or never (P = .004) insomnia. Although CRP levels were themselves associated with increased mortality (adjusted HR 1.36; 95% CI, 1.01-1.82; P = .04), adjustment for CRP levels did not notably change the association between persistent insomnia and mortality. In a population-based cohort, persistent, and not intermittent, insomnia was associated with increased risk for all-cause and cardiopulmonary mortality and was associated with a steeper increase in inflammation. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Incorporating Comorbidity Within Risk Adjustment for UK Pediatric Cardiac Surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Katherine L; Rogers, Libby; Barron, David J; Tsang, Victor; Anderson, David; Tibby, Shane; Witter, Thomas; Stickley, John; Crowe, Sonya; English, Kate; Franklin, Rodney C; Pagel, Christina

    2017-07-01

    When considering early survival rates after pediatric cardiac surgery it is essential to adjust for risk linked to case complexity. An important but previously less well understood component of case mix complexity is comorbidity. The National Congenital Heart Disease Audit data representing all pediatric cardiac surgery procedures undertaken in the United Kingdom and Ireland between 2009 and 2014 was used to develop and test groupings for comorbidity and additional non-procedure-based risk factors within a risk adjustment model for 30-day mortality. A mixture of expert consensus based opinion and empiric statistical analyses were used to define and test the new comorbidity groups. The study dataset consisted of 21,838 pediatric cardiac surgical procedure episodes in 18,834 patients with 539 deaths (raw 30-day mortality rate, 2.5%). In addition to surgical procedure type, primary cardiac diagnosis, univentricular status, age, weight, procedure type (bypass, nonbypass, or hybrid), and era, the new risk factor groups of non-Down congenital anomalies, acquired comorbidities, increased severity of illness indicators (eg, preoperative mechanical ventilation or circulatory support) and additional cardiac risk factors (eg, heart muscle conditions and raised pulmonary arterial pressure) all independently increased the risk of operative mortality. In an era of low mortality rates across a wide range of operations, non-procedure-based risk factors form a vital element of risk adjustment and their presence leads to wide variations in the predicted risk of a given operation. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Physical Inactivity and Mortality Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Kokkinos

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available In recent years a plethora of epidemiologic evidence accumulated supports a strong, independent and inverse, association between physical activity and the fitness status of an individual and mortality in apparently healthy individuals and diseased populations. These health benefits are realized at relatively low fitness levels and increase with higher physical activity patterns or fitness status in a dose-response fashion. The risk reduction is at least in part attributed to the favorable effect of exercise or physical activity on the cardiovascular risk factors, namely, blood pressure, diabetes mellitus and obesity. In this review, we examine evidence from epidemiologic and interventional studies in support of the association between exercise and physical activity and health. In addition, we present the exercise effects on the aforementioned risk factors. Finally, we include select dietary approaches and their impact on risk factors and overall mortality risk.

  6. Severity-Adjusted Mortality in Trauma Patients Transported by Police

    Science.gov (United States)

    Band, Roger A.; Salhi, Rama A.; Holena, Daniel N.; Powell, Elizabeth; Branas, Charles C.; Carr, Brendan G.

    2018-01-01

    Study objective Two decades ago, Philadelphia began allowing police transport of patients with penetrating trauma. We conduct a large, multiyear, citywide analysis of this policy. We examine the association between mode of out-of-hospital transport (police department versus emergency medical services [EMS]) and mortality among patients with penetrating trauma in Philadelphia. Methods This is a retrospective cohort study of trauma registry data. Patients who sustained any proximal penetrating trauma and presented to any Level I or II trauma center in Philadelphia between January 1, 2003, and December 31, 2007, were included. Analyses were conducted with logistic regression models and were adjusted for injury severity with the Trauma and Injury Severity Score and for case mix with a modified Charlson index. Results Four thousand one hundred twenty-two subjects were identified. Overall mortality was 27.4%. In unadjusted analyses, patients transported by police were more likely to die than patients transported by ambulance (29.8% versus 26.5%; OR 1.18; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.00 to 1.39). In adjusted models, no significant difference was observed in overall mortality between the police department and EMS groups (odds ratio [OR] 0.78; 95% CI 0.61 to 1.01). In subgroup analysis, patients with severe injury (Injury Severity Score >15) (OR 0.73; 95% CI 0.59 to 0.90), patients with gunshot wounds (OR 0.70; 95% CI 0.53 to 0.94), and patients with stab wounds (OR 0.19; 95% CI 0.08 to 0.45) were more likely to survive if transported by police. Conclusion We found no significant overall difference in adjusted mortality between patients transported by the police department compared with EMS but found increased adjusted survival among 3 key subgroups of patients transported by police. This practice may augment traditional care. PMID:24387925

  7. Falling mortality when adjusted for comorbidity in upper gastrointestinal bleeding: relevance of multi-disciplinary care

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taha, Ali S; Saffouri, Eliana; McCloskey, Caroline; Craigen, Theresa; Angerson, Wilson J

    2014-01-01

    Objectives The understanding of changes in comorbidity might improve the management of upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB); such changes might not be detectable in short-term studies. We aimed to study UGIB mortality as adjusted for comorbidity and the trends in risk scores over a 14-year period. Methods Patients presenting with UGIB to a single institution, 1996–2010, were assessed. Those with multiple comorbidities were managed in a multi-disciplinary care unit since 2000. Trends with time were assessed using logistic regression, including those for Charlson comorbidity score, the complete Rockall score and 30-day mortality. Results 2669 patients were included. The Charlson comorbidity score increased significantly with time: the odds of a high (3+) score increasing at a relative rate of 4.4% a year (OR 1.044; p<0.001). The overall 30-day mortality was 4.9% and inpatient mortality was 7.1%; these showed no relationship with time. When adjusted for the increasing comorbidity, the odds of death decreased significantly at a relative rate of 4.5% per year (p=0.038). After the introduction of multi-disciplinary care, the raw mortality OR was 0.680 (p=0.08), and adjusted for comorbidity it was 0.566 (p=0.013). Conclusions 30-day mortality decreased when adjusted for the rising comorbidity in UGIB; whether this is related to the introduction of multi-disciplinary care needs to be considered. PMID:28839780

  8. Direct comparison of risk-adjusted and non-risk-adjusted CUSUM analyses of coronary artery bypass surgery outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Novick, Richard J; Fox, Stephanie A; Stitt, Larry W; Forbes, Thomas L; Steiner, Stefan

    2006-08-01

    We previously applied non-risk-adjusted cumulative sum methods to analyze coronary bypass outcomes. The objective of this study was to assess the incremental advantage of risk-adjusted cumulative sum methods in this setting. Prospective data were collected in 793 consecutive patients who underwent coronary bypass grafting performed by a single surgeon during a period of 5 years. The composite occurrence of an "adverse outcome" included mortality or any of 10 major complications. An institutional logistic regression model for adverse outcome was developed by using 2608 contemporaneous patients undergoing coronary bypass. The predicted risk of adverse outcome in each of the surgeon's 793 patients was then calculated. A risk-adjusted cumulative sum curve was then generated after specifying control limits and odds ratio. This risk-adjusted curve was compared with the non-risk-adjusted cumulative sum curve, and the clinical significance of this difference was assessed. The surgeon's adverse outcome rate was 96 of 793 (12.1%) versus 270 of 1815 (14.9%) for all the other institution's surgeons combined (P = .06). The non-risk-adjusted curve reached below the lower control limit, signifying excellent outcomes between cases 164 and 313, 323 and 407, and 667 and 793, but transgressed the upper limit between cases 461 and 478. The risk-adjusted cumulative sum curve never transgressed the upper control limit, signifying that cases preceding and including 461 to 478 were at an increased predicted risk. Furthermore, if the risk-adjusted cumulative sum curve was reset to zero whenever a control limit was reached, it still signaled a decrease in adverse outcome at 166, 653, and 782 cases. Risk-adjusted cumulative sum techniques provide incremental advantages over non-risk-adjusted methods by not signaling a decrement in performance when preoperative patient risk is high.

  9. Global Volcano Mortality Risks and Distribution

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Global Volcano Mortality Risks and Distribution is a 2.5 minute grid representing global volcano mortality risks. The data set was constructed using historical...

  10. Global Drought Mortality Risks and Distribution

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Global Drought Mortality Risks and Distribution is a 2.5 minute grid of global drought mortality risks. Gridded Population of the World, Version 3 (GPWv3) data...

  11. Adjusting Expected Mortality Rates Using Information From a Control Population: An Example Using Socioeconomic Status.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bower, Hannah; Andersson, Therese M-L; Crowther, Michael J; Dickman, Paul W; Lambe, Mats; Lambert, Paul C

    2018-04-01

    Expected or reference mortality rates are commonly used in the calculation of measures such as relative survival in population-based cancer survival studies and standardized mortality ratios. These expected rates are usually presented according to age, sex, and calendar year. In certain situations, stratification of expected rates by other factors is required to avoid potential bias if interest lies in quantifying measures according to such factors as, for example, socioeconomic status. If data are not available on a population level, information from a control population could be used to adjust expected rates. We have presented two approaches for adjusting expected mortality rates using information from a control population: a Poisson generalized linear model and a flexible parametric survival model. We used a control group from BCBaSe-a register-based, matched breast cancer cohort in Sweden with diagnoses between 1992 and 2012-to illustrate the two methods using socioeconomic status as a risk factor of interest. Results showed that Poisson and flexible parametric survival approaches estimate similar adjusted mortality rates according to socioeconomic status. Additional uncertainty involved in the methods to estimate stratified, expected mortality rates described in this study can be accounted for using a parametric bootstrap, but this might make little difference if using a large control population.

  12. Neonatal mortality: description and effect of hospital of birth after risk adjustment Mortalidade neonatal: descrição e efeito do hospital de nascimento após ajuste de risco

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aluísio J D Barros

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To assess the effect of hospital of birth on neonatal mortality. METHODS: A birth cohort study was carried out in Pelotas, Southern Brazil, in 2004. All hospital births were assessed by daily visits to all maternity hospitals and 4558 deliveries were included in the study. Mothers were interviewed regarding potential risk factors. Deaths were monitored through regular visits to hospitals, cemeteries and register offices. Two independent pediatricians established the underlying cause of death based on information obtained from medical records and home visits to parents. Logistic regression was used to estimate the effect of hospital of birth, controlling for confounders related to maternal and newborn characteristics, according to a conceptual model. RESULTS: Neonatal mortality rate was 12.7‰ and it was highly influenced by birthweight, gestational age, and socioeconomic variables. Immaturity was responsible for 65% of neonatal deaths, followed by congenital anomalies, infections and intrapartum asphyxia. Adjusting for maternal characteristics, a three-fold increase in neonatal mortality was seen between similar complexity hospitals. The effect of hospital remained, though lower, after controlling for newborn characteristics. CONCLUSIONS: Neonatal mortality was high, mainly related to immaturity, and varied significantly across maternity hospitals. Further investigations comparing delivery care practices across hospitals are needed to better understand NMR variation and to develop strategies for neonatal mortality reduction.OBJETIVO: Avaliar o efeito de hospital de nascimento na ocorrência de mortalidade neonatal. MÉTODOS: Uma coorte de nascimentos foi iniciada em Pelotas, em 2004. Todos os nascimentos hospitalares foram estudados em visitas diárias às maternidades da cidade, incluindo-se 4.558 recém-nascidos. As mães foram entrevistadas sobre fatores de risco em potencial e as mortes, monitoradas com visitas regulares aos

  13. Underwriters' view of risk - An adjuster's perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, M.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reviews how a risk assessment is performed by an insurance adjuster to determine rates and insurability of a client. It provides a historical perspective on insurance and how information systems are used to monitor past claims to determine future risk. Although this paper does not specifically address the oil and gas industry, it is informative in identifying how insurance rates are determined and risk assessments for various oil and gas operations are performed

  14. Association of BMI with risk of CVD mortality and all-cause mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kee, Chee Cheong; Sumarni, Mohd Ghazali; Lim, Kuang Hock; Selvarajah, Sharmini; Haniff, Jamaiyah; Tee, Guat Hiong Helen; Gurpreet, Kaur; Faudzi, Yusoff Ahmad; Amal, Nasir Mustafa

    2017-05-01

    To determine the relationship between BMI and risk of CVD mortality and all-cause mortality among Malaysian adults. Population-based, retrospective cohort study. Participants were followed up for 5 years from 2006 to 2010. Mortality data were obtained via record linkages with the Malaysian National Registration Department. Multiple Cox regression was applied to compare risk of CVD and all-cause mortality between BMI categories adjusting for age, gender and ethnicity. Models were generated for all participants, all participants the first 2 years of follow-up, healthy participants, healthy never smokers, never smokers, current smokers and former smokers. All fourteen states in Malaysia. Malaysian adults (n 32 839) aged 18 years or above from the third National Health and Morbidity Survey. Total follow-up time was 153 814 person-years with 1035 deaths from all causes and 225 deaths from CVD. Underweight (BMIBMI ≥30·0 kg/m2) was associated with a heightened risk of CVD mortality. Overweight (BMI=25·0-29·9 kg/m2) was inversely associated with risk of all-cause mortality. Underweight was significantly associated with all-cause mortality in all models except for current smokers. Overweight was inversely associated with all-cause mortality in all participants. Although a positive trend was observed between BMI and CVD mortality in all participants, a significant association was observed only for severe obesity (BMI≥35·0 kg/m2). Underweight was associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality and obesity with increased risk of CVD mortality. Therefore, maintaining a normal BMI through leading an active lifestyle and healthy dietary habits should continue to be promoted.

  15. Global Multihazard Mortality Risks and Distribution

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Global Multihazard Mortality Risks and Distribution is a 2.5 minute grid identifying and characterizing the nature of multihazard risk at the global scale. For this...

  16. Increased mortality risk in women with depression and diabetes mellitus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, An; Lucas, Michel; Sun, Qi; van Dam, Rob M.; Franco, Oscar H.; Willett, Walter C.; Manson, JoAnn E.; Rexrode, Kathryn M.; Ascherio, Alberto; Hu, Frank B.

    2011-01-01

    Context Both depression and diabetes have been associated with an increased risk of all-cause and cardiovascular diseases (CVD) mortality. However, data evaluating the joint effects of these two conditions on mortality are sparse. Objectives To evaluate the individual and joint effects of depression and diabetes on all-cause and CVD mortality in a prospective cohort study. Design, Settings and Participants A total of 78282 female participants in the Nurses' Health Study aged 54-79 years at baseline in 2000 were followed until 2006. Depression was defined as having self-reported diagnosed depression, treatment with antidepressant medications, or a score indicating severe depressive symptomatology, i.e., a five-item Mental Health Index score ≤52. Self-reported type 2 diabetes was confirmed using a supplementary questionnaire. Main outcome measures All-cause and CVD-specific mortality. Results During 6 years of follow-up (433066 person-years), 4654 deaths were documented, including 979 deaths from CVD. Compared to participants without either condition, the age-adjusted relative risks (95% confidence interval, CI) for all-cause mortality were 1.76 (1.64-1.89) for women with depression only, 1.71 (1.54-1.89) for individuals with diabetes only, and 3.11 (2.70-3.58) for those with both conditions. The corresponding age-adjusted relative risks of CVD mortality were 1.81 (1.54-2.13), 2.67 (2.20-3.23), and 5.38 (4.19-6.91), respectively. These associations were attenuated after multivariate adjustment for other demographic variables, body mass index, smoking status, alcohol intake, physical activity, and major comorbidities (including hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, heart diseases, stroke and cancer) but remained significant, with the highest relative risks for all-cause and CVD mortality found in those with both conditions (2.07 [95% CI, 1.79-2.40] and 2.72 [95% CI, 2.09-3.54], respectively). Furthermore, the combination of depression with a long duration of diabetes

  17. Ants avoid superinfections by performing risk-adjusted sanitary care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Konrad, Matthias; Pull, Christopher D; Metzler, Sina; Seif, Katharina; Naderlinger, Elisabeth; Grasse, Anna V; Cremer, Sylvia

    2018-03-13

    Being cared for when sick is a benefit of sociality that can reduce disease and improve survival of group members. However, individuals providing care risk contracting infectious diseases themselves. If they contract a low pathogen dose, they may develop low-level infections that do not cause disease but still affect host immunity by either decreasing or increasing the host's vulnerability to subsequent infections. Caring for contagious individuals can thus significantly alter the future disease susceptibility of caregivers. Using ants and their fungal pathogens as a model system, we tested if the altered disease susceptibility of experienced caregivers, in turn, affects their expression of sanitary care behavior. We found that low-level infections contracted during sanitary care had protective or neutral effects on secondary exposure to the same (homologous) pathogen but consistently caused high mortality on superinfection with a different (heterologous) pathogen. In response to this risk, the ants selectively adjusted the expression of their sanitary care. Specifically, the ants performed less grooming and more antimicrobial disinfection when caring for nestmates contaminated with heterologous pathogens compared with homologous ones. By modulating the components of sanitary care in this way the ants acquired less infectious particles of the heterologous pathogens, resulting in reduced superinfection. The performance of risk-adjusted sanitary care reveals the remarkable capacity of ants to react to changes in their disease susceptibility, according to their own infection history and to flexibly adjust collective care to individual risk.

  18. Measuring the Value of Mortality Risk Reductions in Turkey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tekeşin, Cem; Ara, Shihomi

    2014-01-01

    The willingness to pay (WTP) for mortality risk reduction from four causes (lung cancer, other type of cancer, respiratory disease, traffic accident) are estimated using random parameter logit model with data from choice experiment for three regions in Turkey. The value of statistical life (VSL) estimated for Afsin-Elbistan, Kutahya-Tavsanli, Ankara and the pooled case are found as 0.56, 0.35, 0.46 and 0.49 million Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) adjusted 2012 US dollars (USD). Different types of risk cause different VSL estimates and we found the lung cancer premium of 213% against traffic accident. The effects of one-year-delayed provision of risk-reduction service are the reduction of WTP by 482 TL ($318 in PPP adjusted USD) per person on average, and the disutility from status-quo (zero risk reduction) against alternative is found to be 891 TL ($589 in PPP adjusted USD) per person on average. Senior discounts of VSL are partially determined by status-quo preference and the amount of discount decreases once the status-quo bias is removed. The peak VSL is found to be for the age group 30–39 and the average VSL for the age group is 0.8 million PPP adjusted USD). Turkey’s compliance to European Union (EU) air quality standard will cause welfare gains of total 373 million PPP adjusted USD for our study areas in terms of reduced number of premature mortality. PMID:25000150

  19. Measuring the Value of Mortality Risk Reductions in Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cem Tekeşin

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The willingness to pay (WTP for mortality risk reduction from four causes (lung cancer, other type of cancer, respiratory disease, traffic accident are estimated using random parameter logit model with data from choice experiment for three regions in Turkey. The value of statistical life (VSL estimated for Afsin-Elbistan, Kutahya-Tavsanli, Ankara and the pooled case are found as 0.56, 0.35, 0.46 and 0.49 million Purchasing Power Parity (PPP adjusted 2012 US dollars (USD. Different types of risk cause different VSL estimates and we found the lung cancer premium of 213% against traffic accident. The effects of one-year-delayed provision of risk-reduction service are the reduction of WTP by 482 TL ($318 in PPP adjusted USD per person on average, and the disutility from status-quo (zero risk reduction against alternative is found to be 891 TL ($589 in PPP adjusted USD per person on average. Senior discounts of VSL are partially determined by status-quo preference and the amount of discount decreases once the status-quo bias is removed. The peak VSL is found to be for the age group 30–39 and the average VSL for the age group is 0.8 million PPP adjusted USD. Turkey’s compliance to European Union (EU air quality standard will cause welfare gains of total 373 million PPP adjusted USD for our study areas in terms of reduced number of premature mortality.

  20. Risk-adjusted hospital outcomes for children's surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saito, Jacqueline M; Chen, Li Ern; Hall, Bruce L; Kraemer, Kari; Barnhart, Douglas C; Byrd, Claudia; Cohen, Mark E; Fei, Chunyuan; Heiss, Kurt F; Huffman, Kristopher; Ko, Clifford Y; Latus, Melissa; Meara, John G; Oldham, Keith T; Raval, Mehul V; Richards, Karen E; Shah, Rahul K; Sutton, Laura C; Vinocur, Charles D; Moss, R Lawrence

    2013-09-01

    BACKGROUND The American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program-Pediatric was initiated in 2008 to drive quality improvement in children's surgery. Low mortality and morbidity in previous analyses limited differentiation of hospital performance. Participating institutions included children's units within general hospitals and free-standing children's hospitals. Cases selected by Current Procedural Terminology codes encompassed procedures within pediatric general, otolaryngologic, orthopedic, urologic, plastic, neurologic, thoracic, and gynecologic surgery. Trained personnel abstracted demographic, surgical profile, preoperative, intraoperative, and postoperative variables. Incorporating procedure-specific risk, hierarchical models for 30-day mortality and morbidities were developed with significant predictors identified by stepwise logistic regression. Reliability was estimated to assess the balance of information versus error within models. In 2011, 46 281 patients from 43 hospitals were accrued; 1467 codes were aggregated into 226 groupings. Overall mortality was 0.3%, composite morbidity 5.8%, and surgical site infection (SSI) 1.8%. Hierarchical models revealed outlier hospitals with above or below expected performance for composite morbidity in the entire cohort, pediatric abdominal subgroup, and spine subgroup; SSI in the entire cohort and pediatric abdominal subgroup; and urinary tract infection in the entire cohort. Based on reliability estimates, mortality discriminates performance poorly due to very low event rate; however, reliable model construction for composite morbidity and SSI that differentiate institutions is feasible. The National Surgical Quality Improvement Program-Pediatric expansion has yielded risk-adjusted models to differentiate hospital performance in composite and specific morbidities. However, mortality has low utility as a children's surgery performance indicator. Programmatic improvements have resulted in

  1. Adjusting a cancer mortality-prediction model for disease status-related eligibility criteria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kimmel Marek

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Volunteering participants in disease studies tend to be healthier than the general population partially due to specific enrollment criteria. Using modeling to accurately predict outcomes of cohort studies enrolling volunteers requires adjusting for the bias introduced in this way. Here we propose a new method to account for the effect of a specific form of healthy volunteer bias resulting from imposing disease status-related eligibility criteria, on disease-specific mortality, by explicitly modeling the length of the time interval between the moment when the subject becomes ineligible for the study, and the outcome. Methods Using survival time data from 1190 newly diagnosed lung cancer patients at MD Anderson Cancer Center, we model the time from clinical lung cancer diagnosis to death using an exponential distribution to approximate the length of this interval for a study where lung cancer death serves as the outcome. Incorporating this interval into our previously developed lung cancer risk model, we adjust for the effect of disease status-related eligibility criteria in predicting the number of lung cancer deaths in the control arm of CARET. The effect of the adjustment using the MD Anderson-derived approximation is compared to that based on SEER data. Results Using the adjustment developed in conjunction with our existing lung cancer model, we are able to accurately predict the number of lung cancer deaths observed in the control arm of CARET. Conclusions The resulting adjustment was accurate in predicting the lower rates of disease observed in the early years while still maintaining reasonable prediction ability in the later years of the trial. This method could be used to adjust for, or predict the duration and relative effect of any possible biases related to disease-specific eligibility criteria in modeling studies of volunteer-based cohorts.

  2. Monitoring risk-adjusted outcomes in congenital heart surgery: does the appropriateness of a risk model change with time?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsang, Victor T; Brown, Katherine L; Synnergren, Mats Johanssen; Kang, Nicholas; de Leval, Marc R; Gallivan, Steve; Utley, Martin

    2009-02-01

    Risk adjustment of outcomes in pediatric congenital heart surgery is challenging due to the great diversity in diagnoses and procedures. We have previously shown that variable life-adjusted display (VLAD) charts provide an effective graphic display of risk-adjusted outcomes in this specialty. A question arises as to whether the risk model used remains appropriate over time. We used a recently developed graphic technique to evaluate the performance of an existing risk model among those patients at a single center during 2000 to 2003 originally used in model development. We then compared the distribution of predicted risk among these patients with that among patients in 2004 to 2006. Finally, we constructed a VLAD chart of risk-adjusted outcomes for the latter period. Among 1083 patients between April 2000 and March 2003, the risk model performed well at predicted risks above 3%, underestimated mortality at 2% to 3% predicted risk, and overestimated mortality below 2% predicted risk. There was little difference in the distribution of predicted risk among these patients and among 903 patients between June 2004 and October 2006. Outcomes for the more recent period were appreciably better than those expected according to the risk model. This finding cannot be explained by any apparent bias in the risk model combined with changes in case-mix. Risk models can, and hopefully do, become out of date. There is scope for complacency in the risk-adjusted audit if the risk model used is not regularly recalibrated to reflect changing standards and expectations.

  3. Out of control mortality matters: the effect of perceived uncontrollable mortality risk on a health-related decision.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pepper, Gillian V; Nettle, Daniel

    2014-01-01

    Prior evidence from the public health literature suggests that both control beliefs and perceived threats to life are important for health behaviour. Our previously presented theoretical model generated the more specific hypothesis that uncontrollable, but not controllable, personal mortality risk should alter the payoff from investment in health protection behaviours. We carried out three experiments to test whether altering the perceived controllability of mortality risk would affect a health-related decision. Experiment 1 demonstrated that a mortality prime could be used to alter a health-related decision: the choice between a healthier food reward (fruit) and an unhealthy alternative (chocolate). Experiment 2 demonstrated that it is the controllability of the mortality risk being primed that generates the effect, rather than mortality risk per se. Experiment 3 showed that the effect could be seen in a surreptitious experiment that was not explicitly health related. Our results suggest that perceptions about the controllability of mortality risk may be an important factor in people's health-related decisions. Thus, techniques for adjusting perceptions about mortality risk could be important tools for use in health interventions. More importantly, tackling those sources of mortality that people perceive to be uncontrollable could have a dual purpose: making neighbourhoods and workplaces safer would have the primary benefit of reducing uncontrollable mortality risk, which could lead to a secondary benefit from improved health behaviours.

  4. Out of control mortality matters: the effect of perceived uncontrollable mortality risk on a health-related decision

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gillian V. Pepper

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Prior evidence from the public health literature suggests that both control beliefs and perceived threats to life are important for health behaviour. Our previously presented theoretical model generated the more specific hypothesis that uncontrollable, but not controllable, personal mortality risk should alter the payoff from investment in health protection behaviours. We carried out three experiments to test whether altering the perceived controllability of mortality risk would affect a health-related decision. Experiment 1 demonstrated that a mortality prime could be used to alter a health-related decision: the choice between a healthier food reward (fruit and an unhealthy alternative (chocolate. Experiment 2 demonstrated that it is the controllability of the mortality risk being primed that generates the effect, rather than mortality risk per se. Experiment 3 showed that the effect could be seen in a surreptitious experiment that was not explicitly health related. Our results suggest that perceptions about the controllability of mortality risk may be an important factor in people’s health-related decisions. Thus, techniques for adjusting perceptions about mortality risk could be important tools for use in health interventions. More importantly, tackling those sources of mortality that people perceive to be uncontrollable could have a dual purpose: making neighbourhoods and workplaces safer would have the primary benefit of reducing uncontrollable mortality risk, which could lead to a secondary benefit from improved health behaviours.

  5. Perspective on occupational mortality risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cohen, B.L.

    1981-01-01

    Occupational risks to radiation workers are compared with other occupational risks on the basis of lost life expectancy (LLE) in a full working lifetime. Usual comparisons with National Safety Council accident death statistics for various industry categories are shown to be unfair because the latter average over a variety of particular industries and occupations within each industry. Correcting for these problems makes some common occupations in some industries 20-50 times more dangerous due to accidents alone than being a radiation worker. If more exposed subgroups of radiation workers are compared with more dangerous subgroups of other occupations, these ratios are maintained. Since radiation causes disease rather than acute injury, a wide range effort is made to estimate average loss of life expectancy from occupational disease; the final estimate for this is 500 days. The average American worker loses more than an order of magnitude more life expectancy from occupational disease than the average radiation worker loses from radiation induced cancer. (author)

  6. BMI and Lifetime Changes in BMI and Cancer Mortality Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taghizadeh, Niloofar; Boezen, H. Marike; Schouten, Jan P.; Schröder, Carolien P.; de Vries, E. G. Elisabeth; Vonk, Judith M.

    2015-01-01

    Body Mass Index (BMI) is known to be associated with cancer mortality, but little is known about the link between lifetime changes in BMI and cancer mortality in both males and females. We studied the association of BMI measurements (at baseline, highest and lowest BMI during the study-period) and lifetime changes in BMI (calculated over different time periods (i.e. short time period: annual change in BMI between successive surveys, long time period: annual change in BMI over the entire study period) with mortality from any cancer, and lung, colorectal, prostate and breast cancer in a large cohort study (n=8,645. Vlagtwedde-Vlaardingen, 1965-1990) with a follow-up on mortality status on December 31st 2008. We used multivariate Cox regression models with adjustments for age, smoking, sex, and place of residence. Being overweight at baseline was associated with a higher risk of prostate cancer mortality (hazard ratio (HR) =2.22; 95% CI 1.19-4.17). Obesity at baseline was associated with a higher risk of any cancer mortality [all subjects (1.23 (1.01-1.50)), and females (1.40 (1.07-1.84))]. Chronically obese females (females who were obese during the entire study-period) had a higher risk of mortality from any cancer (2.16 (1.47-3.18), lung (3.22 (1.06-9.76)), colorectal (4.32 (1.53-12.20)), and breast cancer (2.52 (1.15-5.54)). We found no significant association between long-term annual change in BMI and cancer mortality risk. Both short-term annual increase and decrease in BMI were associated with a lower mortality risk from any cancer [all subjects: (0.67 (0.47-0.94)) and (0.73 (0.55-0.97)), respectively]. In conclusion, a higher BMI is associated with a higher cancer mortality risk. This study is the first to show that short-term annual changes in BMI were associated with lower mortality from any type of cancer. PMID:25881129

  7. Mortality Risk Among Heart Failure Patients With Depression

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Adelborg, Kasper; Schmidt, Morten; Sundbøll, Jens

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The prevalence of depression is 4- to 5-fold higher in heart failure patients than in the general population. We examined the influence of depression on all-cause mortality in patients with heart failure. METHODS AND RESULTS: Using Danish medical registries, this nationwide population...... included 9636 patients with and 194 887 patients without a diagnosis of depression. Compared with patients without a history of depression, those with depression had higher 1-year (36% versus 33%) and 5-year (68% versus 63%) mortality risks. Overall, the adjusted mortality rate ratio was 1.03 (95% CI 1.......01-1.06). Compared with no depression, the adjusted mortality rate ratios for mild, moderate, and severe depression, as defined by diagnostic codes, were 1.06 (95% CI 1.00-1.13), 1.03 (95% CI 0.99-1.08), and 1.02 (95% CI 0.96-1.09), respectively. In a subcohort of patients, the mortality rate ratios were modified...

  8. Low birth weights and risk of neonatal mortality in Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suparmi Suparmi

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Latar Belakang: Angka kematian neonatal di Indonesia mengalami stagnansi sejak sepuluh tahun terakhir. Dalam rangka mengakselerasi penurunan angka kematian neonatal di Indonesia, intervensi spesifik diperlukan pada faktor utama penyebab kematian. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui kontribusi berat badan lahir rendah terhadap kematian neonatal di Indonesia. Metode: Data Survei Demografi dan Kesehatan Indonesia tahun 2012 digunakan untuk analisis. Sejumlah 18021 kelahiran hidup dalam periode lima tahun terakhir telah dilaporkan oleh responden. Terdapat 14837 anak memiliki informasi lengkap untuk analisis. Adjusted relative risk dengan analisis survival digunakan untuk mengukur hubungan antara variable dengan kematian neonatal. Hasil: Anak yang lahir dengan berat badan rendah memiliki risiko 9.89 kali lebih tinggi untuk kematian neonatal bila dibandingkan dengan anak yang lahir dengan berat badan normal [adjusted relative risk (aRR = 9.89; 95% confidence interval (CI: 7.41 – 13.19; P = < 0.0001]. Anak yang lahir dari ibu berumur muda (15 - 19 tahun memiliki risiko 94% lebih tinggi bila dibandingkan dengan anak yang lahir dari ibu dengan umur antara 20-35 years. Anak dari ibu yang bekerja 81% memiliki risiko kematian neonatal lebih tinggi bila dibandingkan dengan anak yang lahir dari ibu tidak bekerja. Kesimpulan: Anak yang lahir dengan berat badan rendah dan lahir dari ibu muda memiliki risiko kematian neonatal lebih tinggi. Bayi yang lahir dengan berat badan rendah membutuhkan perawatan yang tepat untuk memperpanjang ketahanan hidup anak. (Health Science Journal of Indonesia 2016;7(2:113-117 Kata kunci: Berat badan lahir rendah, kematian neonatal, Indonesia Abstract Background: Neonatal mortality rates in Indonesia remain steady in the past decades (20 in 2002 to 19 per 1000 live births in 2012. In order to accelerate the decline in neonatal mortality rate in Indonesia, specific interventions would have to target key factors causing

  9. Inadequate exercise as a risk factor for sepsis mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Paul T

    2013-01-01

    Test whether inadequate exercise is related to sepsis mortality. Mortality surveillance of an epidemiological cohort of 155,484 National Walkers' and Runners' Health Study participants residing in the United States. Deaths were monitored for an average of 11.6-years using the National Death index through December 31, 2008. Cox proportional hazard analyses were used to compare sepsis mortality (ICD-10 A40-41) to inadequate exercise (<1.07 METh/d run or walked) as measured on their baseline questionnaires. Deaths occurring within one year of the baseline survey were excluded. Sepsis was the underlying cause in 54 deaths (sepsis(underlying)) and a contributing cause in 184 deaths (sepsis(contributing)), or 238 total sepsis-related deaths (sepsis(total)). Inadequate exercise was associated with 2.24-fold increased risk for sepsis(underlying) (95%CI: 1.21 to 4.07-fold, P = 0.01), 2.11-fold increased risk for sepsis(contributing) (95%CI: 1.51- to 2.92-fold, P<10(-4)), and 2.13-fold increased risk for sepsis(total) (95%CI: 1.59- to 2.84-fold, P<10(-6)) when adjusted for age, sex, race, and cohort. The risk increase did not differ significantly between runners and walkers, by sex, or by age. Sepsis(total) risk was greater in diabetics (P = 10(-5)), cancer survivors (P = 0.0001), and heart attack survivors (P = 0.003) and increased with waist circumference (P = 0.0004). The sepsis(total) risk associated with inadequate exercise persisted when further adjusted for diabetes, prior cancer, prior heart attack and waist circumference, and when excluding deaths with cancer, or cardiovascular, respiratory, or genitourinary disease as the underlying cause. Inadequate exercise also increased sepsis(total) risk in 2163 baseline diabetics (4.78-fold, 95%CI: 2.1- to 13.8-fold, P = 0.0001) when adjusted, which was significantly greater (P = 0.03) than the adjusted risk increase in non-diabetics (1.80-fold, 95%CI: 1.30- to 2.46-fold, P = 0

  10. Competition Leverage : How the Demand Side Affects Optimal Risk Adjustment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bijlsma, M.; Boone, J.; Zwart, Gijsbert

    2011-01-01

    We study optimal risk adjustment in imperfectly competitive health insurance markets when high-risk consumers are less likely to switch insurer than low-risk consumers. First, we find that insurers still have an incentive to select even if risk adjustment perfectly corrects for cost differences

  11. Risk-adjusted performance evaluation in three academic thoracic surgery units using the Eurolung risk models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pompili, Cecilia; Shargall, Yaron; Decaluwe, Herbert; Moons, Johnny; Chari, Madhu; Brunelli, Alessandro

    2018-01-03

    The objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of 3 thoracic surgery centres using the Eurolung risk models for morbidity and mortality. This was a retrospective analysis performed on data collected from 3 academic centres (2014-2016). Seven hundred and twenty-one patients in Centre 1, 857 patients in Centre 2 and 433 patients in Centre 3 who underwent anatomical lung resections were analysed. The Eurolung1 and Eurolung2 models were used to predict risk-adjusted cardiopulmonary morbidity and 30-day mortality rates. Observed and risk-adjusted outcomes were compared within each centre. The observed morbidity of Centre 1 was in line with the predicted morbidity (observed 21.1% vs predicted 22.7%, P = 0.31). Centre 2 performed better than expected (observed morbidity 20.2% vs predicted 26.7%, P models were successfully used as risk-adjusting instruments to internally audit the outcomes of 3 different centres, showing their applicability for future quality improvement initiatives. © The Author(s) 2018. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery. All rights reserved.

  12. 42 CFR 422.310 - Risk adjustment data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... that are used in the development and application of a risk adjustment payment model. (b) Data... (CONTINUED) MEDICARE PROGRAM MEDICARE ADVANTAGE PROGRAM Payments to Medicare Advantage Organizations § 422... risk adjustment factors used to adjust payments, as required under §§ 422.304(a) and (c). CMS also may...

  13. Cancer risk and mortality after kidney transplantation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Engberg, Henriette; Wehberg, Sonja; Bistrup, Claus

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Kidney recipients receive immunosuppression to prevent graft rejection, and long-term outcomes such as post-transplant cancer and mortality may vary according to the different protocols of immunosuppression. METHODS: A national register-based historical cohort study was conducted......, the Danish National Cancer Registry and the Danish National Patient Register were used. A historical cohort of 1450 kidney recipients transplanted in 1995-2005 was followed up with respect to post-transplant cancer and death until 31 December 2011. RESULTS: Compared with Center 1 the adjusted post...

  14. Risk factors of neonatal mortality and child mortality in Bangladesh.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maniruzzaman, Md; Suri, Harman S; Kumar, Nishith; Abedin, Md Menhazul; Rahman, Md Jahanur; El-Baz, Ayman; Bhoot, Makrand; Teji, Jagjit S; Suri, Jasjit S

    2018-06-01

    Child and neonatal mortality is a serious problem in Bangladesh. The main objective of this study was to determine the most significant socio-economic factors (covariates) between the years 2011 and 2014 that influences on neonatal and child mortality and to further suggest the plausible policy proposals. We modeled the neonatal and child mortality as categorical dependent variable (alive vs death of the child) while 16 covariates are used as independent variables using χ 2 statistic and multiple logistic regression (MLR) based on maximum likelihood estimate. Using the MLR, for neonatal mortality, diarrhea showed the highest positive coefficient (β = 1.130; P  economic conditions for neonatal mortality. For child mortality, birth order between 2-6 years and 7 and above years showed the highest positive coefficients (β = 1.042; P  economic conditions for child mortality. This study allows policy makers to make appropriate decisions to reduce neonatal and child mortality in Bangladesh. In 2014, mother's age and father's education were also still significant covariates for child mortality. This study allows policy makers to make appropriate decisions to reduce neonatal and child mortality in Bangladesh.

  15. A comparison of internal versus external risk-adjustment for monitoring clinical outcomes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koetsier, Antonie; de Keizer, Nicolette; Peek, Niels

    2011-01-01

    Internal and external prognostic models can be used to calculate severity of illness adjusted mortality risks. However, it is unclear what the consequences are of using an external model instead of an internal model when monitoring an institution's clinical performance. Theoretically, using an

  16. A Review on Methods of Risk Adjustment and their Use in Integrated Healthcare Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juhnke, Christin; Bethge, Susanne

    2016-01-01

    Introduction: Effective risk adjustment is an aspect that is more and more given weight on the background of competitive health insurance systems and vital healthcare systems. The objective of this review was to obtain an overview of existing models of risk adjustment as well as on crucial weights in risk adjustment. Moreover, the predictive performance of selected methods in international healthcare systems should be analysed. Theory and methods: A comprehensive, systematic literature review on methods of risk adjustment was conducted in terms of an encompassing, interdisciplinary examination of the related disciplines. Results: In general, several distinctions can be made: in terms of risk horizons, in terms of risk factors or in terms of the combination of indicators included. Within these, another differentiation by three levels seems reasonable: methods based on mortality risks, methods based on morbidity risks as well as those based on information on (self-reported) health status. Conclusions and discussion: After the final examination of different methods of risk adjustment it was shown that the methodology used to adjust risks varies. The models differ greatly in terms of their included morbidity indicators. The findings of this review can be used in the evaluation of integrated healthcare delivery systems and can be integrated into quality- and patient-oriented reimbursement of care providers in the design of healthcare contracts. PMID:28316544

  17. Mortality risk in a nationwide cohort of individuals with tic disorders and with tourette syndrome

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Meier, Sandra M; Dalsgaard, Søren; Mortensen, Preben B

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Few studies have investigated mortality risk in individuals with tic disorders. METHODS: We thus measured the risk of premature death in individuals with tic disorders and with Tourette syndrome in a prospective cohort study with 80 million person-years of follow-up. We estimated...... mortality rate ratios and adjusted for calendar year, age, sex, urbanicity, maternal and paternal age, and psychiatric disorders to compare individuals with and without tic disorders. RESULTS: The risk of premature death was higher among individuals with tic disorders (mortality rate ratio, 2.02; 95% CI, 1.......49-2.66) and with Tourette syndrome (mortality rate ratio, 1.63; 95% CI, 1.11-2.28) compared with controls. After the exclusion of individuals with comorbid attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, obsessive-compulsive disorder, and substance abuse, tic disorder remained associated with increased mortality risk (mortality...

  18. INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP LEVEL AND RISK-ADJUSTED RETURN

    OpenAIRE

    Isaiah, Chioma; Li, Meng (Emma)

    2017-01-01

    This paper examines the relationship between the level of institutional ownership andrisk-adjusted return on stocks. We find a significant positive relationship between the level ofinstitutional ownership on a stock and its risk-adjusted return. This result holds both in the longrun and in shorter time periods. Our findings suggest that all things being equal, it is possible toobtain risk-adjusted return by going short on the stocks with low institutional ownership andgoing long on those with...

  19. Epidemiology of perforated peptic ulcer: Age- and gender-adjusted analysis of incidence and mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thorsen, Kenneth; Søreide, Jon Arne; Kvaløy, Jan Terje; Glomsaker, Tom; Søreide, Kjetil

    2013-01-01

    AIM: To investigate the epidemiological trends in incidence and mortality of perforated peptic ulcer (PPU) in a well-defined Norwegian population. METHODS: A retrospective, population-based, single-center, consecutive cohort study of all patients diagnosed with benign perforated peptic ulcer. Included were both gastric and duodenal ulcer patients admitted to Stavanger University Hospital between January 2001 and December 2010. Ulcers with a malignant neoplasia diagnosis, verified by histology after biopsy or resection, were excluded. Patients were identified from the hospitals administrative electronic database using pertinent ICD-9 and ICD-10 codes (K25.1, K25.2, K25.5, K25.6, K26.1, K26.2, K26.5, K26.6). Additional searches using appropriate codes for relevant laparoscopic and open surgical procedures (e.g., JDA 60, JDA 61, JDH 70 and JDH 71) were performed to enable a complete identification of all patients. Patient demographics, presentation patterns and clinical data were retrieved from hospital records and surgical notes. Crude and adjusted incidence and mortality rates were estimated by using national population demographics data. RESULTS: In the study period, a total of 172 patients with PPU were identified. The adjusted incidence rate for the overall 10-year period was 6.5 per 100 000 per year (95%CI: 5.6-7.6) and the adjusted mortality rate for the overall 10-year period was 1.1 per 100 000 per year (95%CI: 0.7-1.6). A non-significant decline in adjusted incidence rate from 9.7 to 5.6 occurred during the decade. The standardized mortality ratio for the whole study period was 5.7 (95%CI: 3.9-8.2), while the total 30-d mortality was 16.3%. No difference in incidence or mortality was found between genders. However, for patients ≥ 60 years, the incidence increased over 10-fold, and mortality more than 50-fold, compared to younger ages. The admission rates outside office hours were high with almost two out of three (63%) admissions seen at evening

  20. Ensemble of trees approaches to risk adjustment for evaluating a hospital's performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yang; Traskin, Mikhail; Lorch, Scott A; George, Edward I; Small, Dylan

    2015-03-01

    A commonly used method for evaluating a hospital's performance on an outcome is to compare the hospital's observed outcome rate to the hospital's expected outcome rate given its patient (case) mix and service. The process of calculating the hospital's expected outcome rate given its patient mix and service is called risk adjustment (Iezzoni 1997). Risk adjustment is critical for accurately evaluating and comparing hospitals' performances since we would not want to unfairly penalize a hospital just because it treats sicker patients. The key to risk adjustment is accurately estimating the probability of an Outcome given patient characteristics. For cases with binary outcomes, the method that is commonly used in risk adjustment is logistic regression. In this paper, we consider ensemble of trees methods as alternatives for risk adjustment, including random forests and Bayesian additive regression trees (BART). Both random forests and BART are modern machine learning methods that have been shown recently to have excellent performance for prediction of outcomes in many settings. We apply these methods to carry out risk adjustment for the performance of neonatal intensive care units (NICU). We show that these ensemble of trees methods outperform logistic regression in predicting mortality among babies treated in NICU, and provide a superior method of risk adjustment compared to logistic regression.

  1. Risk-adjusted capitation: recent experiences in The Netherlands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van de Ven, W P; van Vliet, R C; van Barneveld, E M; Lamers, L M

    1994-01-01

    The market-oriented health care reforms taking place in the Netherlands show a clear resemblance to the proposals for managed competition in U.S. health care. In both countries good risk adjustment mechanisms that prevent cream skimming--that is, that prevent plans from selecting the best health risks--are critical to the success of the reforms. In this paper we present an overview of the Dutch reforms and of our research concerning risk-adjusted capitation payments. Although we are optimistic about the technical possibilities for solving the problem of cream skimming, the implementation of good risk-adjusted capitation is a long-term challenge.

  2. ACA Risk Adjustment - Overview, Context, and Challenges

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — Volume 4, Issue 3 of the Medicare and Medicaid Research Review includes three articles describing the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) developed risk...

  3. Risk adjusted financial costs of photovoltaics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Szabo, Sandor; Jaeger-Waldau, Arnulf [Joint Research Centre, Institute for Energy, Via E. Fermi 2749, I-21020 Ispra (Italy); Szabo, Laszlo [Joint Research Centre, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies C. Inca Garcilaso, 3. E-41092 Sevilla (Spain)

    2010-07-15

    Recent research shows significant differences in the levelised photovoltaics (PV) electricity cost calculations. The present paper points out that no unique or absolute cost figure can be justified, the correct solution is to use a range of cost figures that is determined in a dynamic power portfolio interaction within the financial scheme, support mechanism and industry cost reduction. The paper draws attention to the increasing role of financial investors in the PV segment of the renewable energy market and the importance they attribute to the risks of all options in the power generation portfolio. Based on these trends, a former version of a financing model is adapted to project the energy mix changes in the EU electricity market due to investors behaviour with different risk tolerance/aversion. The dynamic process of translating these risks into the return expectation in the financial appraisal and investment decision making is also introduced. By doing so, the paper sets up a potential electricity market trend with the associated risk perception and classification. The necessary risk mitigation tasks for all stakeholders in the PV market are summarised which aims to avoid the burden of excessive risk premiums in this market segment. (author)

  4. Risk adjusted financial costs of photovoltaics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Szabo, Sandor; Jaeger-Waldau, Arnulf; Szabo, Laszlo

    2010-01-01

    Recent research shows significant differences in the levelised photovoltaics (PV) electricity cost calculations. The present paper points out that no unique or absolute cost figure can be justified, the correct solution is to use a range of cost figures that is determined in a dynamic power portfolio interaction within the financial scheme, support mechanism and industry cost reduction. The paper draws attention to the increasing role of financial investors in the PV segment of the renewable energy market and the importance they attribute to the risks of all options in the power generation portfolio. Based on these trends, a former version of a financing model is adapted to project the energy mix changes in the EU electricity market due to investors behaviour with different risk tolerance/aversion. The dynamic process of translating these risks into the return expectation in the financial appraisal and investment decision making is also introduced. By doing so, the paper sets up a potential electricity market trend with the associated risk perception and classification. The necessary risk mitigation tasks for all stakeholders in the PV market are summarised which aims to avoid the burden of excessive risk premiums in this market segment.

  5. Nutrition deficiency increases the risk of stomach cancer mortality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Da Li Qing

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The purpose of the study is to determine whether exposure to malnutrition during early life is associated with increased risk of stomach cancer in later life. Methods The design protocol included analyzing the trend of gastric cancer mortality and nutrition and evaluating the association between nutrient deficiency in early life and the risk of gastric cancer by hierarchical age–period–birth cohort (APC analysis using general log-linear Poisson models and to compare the difference between birth cohorts who were exposed to the 1959–1961 Chinese famine and those who were not exposed to the famine. Data on stomach cancer mortality from 1970 to 2009 and the dietary patterns from 1955 to 1985 which included the 1959–1961 Chinese famine period in the Zhaoyuan County population were obtained. The nutrition information was collected 15 years prior to the mortality data as based on the latest reference of disease incubation. Results APC analysis revealed that severe nutrition deficiency during early life may increase the risk of stomach cancer. Compared with the 1960–1964 birth cohort, the risk for stomach cancer in all birth cohorts from 1900 to 1959 significantly increased; compared with the 1970–1974 cohort, the risk for stomach cancer in the 1975–1979 cohort significantly increased, whereas the others had a steadily decreased risk; compared with 85–89 age group in the 2005–2009 death survey, the ORs decreased with younger age and reached significant levels for the 50–54 age group after adjusting the confounding factors. The 1930 to 1964 group (exposed to famine had a higher mortality rate than the 1965 to 1999 group (not exposed to famine. For males, the relative risk (RR was 2.39 and the 95% confidence interval (CI was 1.51 to 3.77. For females, RR was 1.64 and 95% CI was 1.02 to 2.62. Conclusion The results of the present study suggested that prolonged malnutrition during early life may increase the risk of

  6. The Persistence of Risk-Adjusted Mutual Fund Performance.

    OpenAIRE

    Elton, Edwin J; Gruber, Martin J; Blake, Christopher R

    1996-01-01

    The authors examine predictability for stock mutual funds using risk-adjusted returns. They find that past performance is predictive of future risk-adjusted performance. Applying modern portfolio theory techniques to past data improves selection and allows the authors to construct a portfolio of funds that significantly outperforms a rule based on past rank alone. In addition, they can form a combination of actively managed portfolios with the same risk as a portfolio of index funds but with ...

  7. Community Level Risk Factors for Maternal Mortality in Madagascar

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    AJRH Managing Editor

    This paper explores the effect of risk and socioeconomic factors on maternal mortality at the ... to study maternal mortality, however, studying maternal mortality at the community ... causes of maternal mortality at the country level in ... Antananarivo, the capital city of Madagascar, .... cyclones, and crime can be associated with.

  8. A new casemix adjustment index for hospital mortality among patients with congestive heart failure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polanczyk, C A; Rohde, L E; Philbin, E A; Di Salvo, T G

    1998-10-01

    Comparative analysis of hospital outcomes requires reliable adjustment for casemix. Although congestive heart failure is one of the most common indications for hospitalization, congestive heart failure casemix adjustment has not been widely studied. The purposes of this study were (1) to describe and validate a new congestive heart failure-specific casemix adjustment index to predict in-hospital mortality and (2) to compare its performance to the Charlson comorbidity index. Data from all 4,608 admissions to the Massachusetts General Hospital from January 1990 to July 1996 with a principal ICD-9-CM discharge diagnosis of congestive heart failure were evaluated. Massachusetts General Hospital patients were randomly divided in a derivation and a validation set. By logistic regression, odds ratios for in-hospital death were computed and weights were assigned to construct a new predictive index in the derivation set. The performance of the index was tested in an internal Massachusetts General Hospital validation set and in a non-Massachusetts General Hospital external validation set incorporating data from all 1995 New York state hospital discharges with a primary discharge diagnosis of congestive heart failure. Overall in-hospital mortality was 6.4%. Based on the new index, patients were assigned to six categories with incrementally increasing hospital mortality rates ranging from 0.5% to 31%. By logistic regression, "c" statistics of the congestive heart failure-specific index (0.83 and 0.78, derivation and validation set) were significantly superior to the Charlson index (0.66). Similar incrementally increasing hospital mortality rates were observed in the New York database with the congestive heart failure-specific index ("c" statistics 0.75). In an administrative database, this congestive heart failure-specific index may be a more adequate casemix adjustment tool to predict hospital mortality in patients hospitalized for congestive heart failure.

  9. Inappropriate use of payment weights to risk adjust readmission rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuller, Richard L; Goldfield, Norbert I; Averill, Richard F; Hughes, John S

    2012-01-01

    In this article, the authors demonstrate that the use of relative weights, as incorporated within the National Quality Forum-endorsed PacifiCare readmission measure, is inappropriate for risk adjusting rates of hospital readmission.

  10. Blood donation and blood donor mortality after adjustment for a healthy donor effect

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ullum, Henrik; Rostgaard, Klaus; Kamper-Jørgensen, Mads

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Studies have repeatedly demonstrated that blood donors experience lower mortality than the general population. While this may suggest a beneficial effect of blood donation, it may also reflect the selection of healthy persons into the donor population. To overcome this bias, we...... investigated the relation between blood donation frequency and mortality within a large cohort of blood donors. In addition, our analyses also took into consideration the effects of presumed health differences linked to donation behavior. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: Using the Scandinavian Donation...... and mortality. The magnitude of the association was reduced after adjustment for an estimate of self-selection in the donor population. Our observations indicate that repeated blood donation is not associated with premature death, but cannot be interpreted as conclusive evidence of a beneficial health effect....

  11. Serum selenium level and risk of lung cancer mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Suadicani, P; Hein, H O; Gyntelberg, F

    2011-01-01

    Serum selenium has been implicated as a risk factor for lung cancer, but the issue remains unsettled. We tested in a cohort of 3,333 males aged 53 to 74 years the hypothesis that a low serum selenium would be associated with an increased risk of lung cancer mortality.During 16 years, 167 subjects(5.......1%) died from lung cancer; 48 males (5.0%) among males with low serum selenium, 0.4-1.0 μmol·l(-1), n=965, 57 males (5.1%) among males with medium serum selenium, 1.1-1.2 μmol·l(-1), n=1,141, and 62 males (5.1%) among males with high serum selenium, 1.3-3.0 μmol·l(-1), n=1,227. After adjustment for age...... (chronic bronchitis and peak flow), referencing the lowest level of serum selenium HRs were 1.17(0.79-1.75), and 1.43(0.96-2.14), respectively. Among heavy smokers a high serum selenium was associated with a significantly increased risk of lung cancer mortality after taking into account all potential...

  12. Hedging endowment assurance products under interest rate and mortality risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chen, A.; Mahayni, A.

    2007-01-01

    This paper analyzes how model misspecification associated with both interest rate and mortality risk influences hedging decisions of insurance companies. For this purpose, diverse risk management strategies which are riskminimizing when model risk is ignored come into consideration. The

  13. Belgium: risk adjustment and financial responsibility in a centralised system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schokkaert, Erik; Van de Voorde, Carine

    2003-07-01

    Since 1995 Belgian sickness funds are partially financed through a risk adjustment system and are held partially financially responsible for the difference between their actual and their risk-adjusted expenditures. However, they did not get the necessary instruments for exerting a real influence on expenditures and the health insurance market has not been opened for new entrants. At the same time the sickness funds have powerful tools for risk selection, because they also dominate the market for supplementary health insurance. The present risk-adjustment system is based on the results of a regression analysis with aggregate data. The main proclaimed purpose of this system is to guarantee a fair treatment to all the sickness funds. Until now the danger of risk selection has not been taken seriously. Consumer mobility has remained rather low. However, since the degree of financial responsibility is programmed to increase in the near future, the potential profits from cream skimming will increase.

  14. Favorable Risk Selection in Medicare Advantage: Trends in Mortality and Plan Exits Among Nursing Home Beneficiaries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldberg, Elizabeth M.; Trivedi, Amal N.; Mor, Vincent; Jung, Hye-Young; Rahman, Momotazur

    2016-01-01

    The 2003 Medicare Modernization Act (MMA) increased payments to Medicare Advantage plans and instituted a new risk-adjustment payment model to reduce plans' incentives to enroll healthier Medicare beneficiaries and avoid those with higher costs. Whether the MMA reduced risk selection remains debatable. This study uses mortality differences, nursing home utilization, and switch rates to assess whether the MMA successfully decreased risk selection from 2000 to 2012. We found no decrease in the mortality difference or adjusted difference in nursing home use between plan beneficiaries pre- and post the MMA. Among beneficiaries with nursing home use, disenrollment from Medicare Advantage plans declined from 20% to 12%, but it remained 6 times higher than the switch rate from traditional Medicare to Medicare Advantage. These findings suggest that the MMA was not associated with reductions in favorable risk selection, as measured by mortality, nursing home use, and switch rates. PMID:27516452

  15. Pre-hospital antibiotic treatment and mortality caused by invasive meningococcal disease, adjusting for indication bias

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matute-Cruz Petra

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Mortality from invasive meningococcal disease (IMD has remained stable over the last thirty years and it is unclear whether pre-hospital antibiotherapy actually produces a decrease in this mortality. Our aim was to examine whether pre-hospital oral antibiotherapy reduces mortality from IMD, adjusting for indication bias. Methods A retrospective analysis was made of clinical reports of all patients (n = 848 diagnosed with IMD from 1995 to 2000 in Andalusia and the Canary Islands, Spain, and of the relationship between the use of pre-hospital oral antibiotherapy and mortality. Indication bias was controlled for by the propensity score technique, and a multivariate analysis was performed to determine the probability of each patient receiving antibiotics, according to the symptoms identified before admission. Data on in-hospital death, use of antibiotics and demographic variables were collected. A logistic regression analysis was then carried out, using death as the dependent variable, and pre-hospital antibiotic use, age, time from onset of symptoms to parenteral antibiotics and the propensity score as independent variables. Results Data were recorded on 848 patients, 49 (5.72% of whom died. Of the total number of patients, 226 had received oral antibiotics before admission, mainly betalactams during the previous 48 hours. After adjusting the association between the use of antibiotics and death for age, time between onset of symptoms and in-hospital antibiotic treatment, pre-hospital oral antibiotherapy remained a significant protective factor (Odds Ratio for death 0.37, 95% confidence interval 0.15–0.93. Conclusion Pre-hospital oral antibiotherapy appears to reduce IMD mortality.

  16. Perinatal mortality and associated risk factors: a case control study ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    BACKGROUND: Perinatal mortality is reported to be five times higher in developing than in developed nations. Little is known about the commonly associated risk factors for perinatal mortality in Southern Nations National Regional State of Ethiopia. METHODS: A case control study for perinatal mortality was conducted in ...

  17. A Machine Learning Framework for Plan Payment Risk Adjustment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rose, Sherri

    2016-12-01

    To introduce cross-validation and a nonparametric machine learning framework for plan payment risk adjustment and then assess whether they have the potential to improve risk adjustment. 2011-2012 Truven MarketScan database. We compare the performance of multiple statistical approaches within a broad machine learning framework for estimation of risk adjustment formulas. Total annual expenditure was predicted using age, sex, geography, inpatient diagnoses, and hierarchical condition category variables. The methods included regression, penalized regression, decision trees, neural networks, and an ensemble super learner, all in concert with screening algorithms that reduce the set of variables considered. The performance of these methods was compared based on cross-validated R 2 . Our results indicate that a simplified risk adjustment formula selected via this nonparametric framework maintains much of the efficiency of a traditional larger formula. The ensemble approach also outperformed classical regression and all other algorithms studied. The implementation of cross-validated machine learning techniques provides novel insight into risk adjustment estimation, possibly allowing for a simplified formula, thereby reducing incentives for increased coding intensity as well as the ability of insurers to "game" the system with aggressive diagnostic upcoding. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

  18. Adjustment of lifetime risks of space radiation-induced cancer by the healthy worker effect and cancer misclassification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leif E. Peterson

    2015-12-01

    Conclusions. The typical life table approach for projecting lifetime risk of radiation-induced cancer mortality and incidence for astronauts and radiation workers can be improved by adjusting for HWE while simulating the uncertainty of input rates, input excess risk coefficients, and bias correction factors during multiple Monte Carlo realizations of the life table.

  19. Motives for volunteering are associated with mortality risk in older adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Konrath, Sara; Fuhrel-Forbis, Andrea; Lou, Alina; Brown, Stephanie

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to examine the effects of motives for volunteering on respondents' mortality risk 4 years later. Logistic regression analysis was used to examine whether motives for volunteering predicted later mortality risk, above and beyond volunteering itself, in older adults from the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study. Covariates included age, gender, socioeconomic variables, physical, mental, and cognitive health, health risk behaviors, personality traits, received social support, and actual volunteering behavior. Replicating prior work, respondents who volunteered were at lower risk for mortality 4 years later, especially those who volunteered more regularly and frequently. However, volunteering behavior was not always beneficially related to mortality risk: Those who volunteered for self-oriented reasons had a mortality risk similar to nonvolunteers. Those who volunteered for other-oriented reasons had a decreased mortality risk, even in adjusted models. This study adds to the existing literature on the powerful effects of social interactions on health and is the first study to our knowledge to examine the effect of motives on volunteers' subsequent mortality. Volunteers live longer than nonvolunteers, but this is only true if they volunteer for other-oriented reasons.

  20. Can rent adjustment clauses reduce the income risk of farms?

    OpenAIRE

    Hotopp, Henning; Mußhoff, Oliver

    2012-01-01

    Risk management is gaining importance in agriculture. In addition to traditional instruments, new risk management instruments are increasingly being proposed. These proposals include the rent adjustment clauses (RACs), which seem to be an unusual instrument at first sight. In contrast with conventional instruments, RACs intentionally allow fixed-cost ‘rent payments’ to fluctuate. We investigate the whole-farm risk reduction potential of different types of RACs via a historical simulation....

  1. Variability modifies life satisfaction's association with mortality risk in older adults

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boehm, Julia K.; Winning, Ashley; Segerstrom, Suzanne; Kubzansky, Laura D.

    2015-01-01

    Life satisfaction is associated with greater longevity, but its variability across time has not been examined relative to longevity. We investigated whether mean levels of life satisfaction across time, variability in life satisfaction across time, and their interaction were associated with mortality over 9 years of follow-up. Participants were 4,458 Australians initially ≥50 years old. During the follow-up, 546 people died. Adjusting for age, greater mean life satisfaction was associated with reduced risk and greater variability in life satisfaction was associated with increased risk of mortality. These findings were qualified by a significant interaction such that individuals with low mean satisfaction and high variability in satisfaction had the greatest risk of mortality over the follow-up period. In combination with mean levels of life satisfaction, variability in life satisfaction is relevant for mortality risk among older adults. Considering intraindividual variability provides additional insight into associations between psychological characteristics and health. PMID:26048888

  2. Use of Life Course Work–Family Profiles to Predict Mortality Risk Among US Women

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guevara, Ivan Mejía; Glymour, M. Maria; Berkman, Lisa F.

    2015-01-01

    Objectives. We examined relationships between US women’s exposure to midlife work–family demands and subsequent mortality risk. Methods. We used data from women born 1935 to 1956 in the Health and Retirement Study to calculate employment, marital, and parenthood statuses for each age between 16 and 50 years. We used sequence analysis to identify 7 prototypical work–family trajectories. We calculated age-standardized mortality rates and hazard ratios (HRs) for mortality associated with work–family sequences, with adjustment for covariates and potentially explanatory later-life factors. Results. Married women staying home with children briefly before reentering the workforce had the lowest mortality rates. In comparison, after adjustment for age, race/ethnicity, and education, HRs for mortality were 2.14 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.58, 2.90) among single nonworking mothers, 1.48 (95% CI = 1.06, 1.98) among single working mothers, and 1.36 (95% CI = 1.02, 1.80) among married nonworking mothers. Adjustment for later-life behavioral and economic factors partially attenuated risks. Conclusions. Sequence analysis is a promising exposure assessment tool for life course research. This method permitted identification of certain lifetime work–family profiles associated with mortality risk before age 75 years. PMID:25713976

  3. Use of life course work-family profiles to predict mortality risk among US women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabbath, Erika L; Guevara, Ivan Mejía; Glymour, M Maria; Berkman, Lisa F

    2015-04-01

    We examined relationships between US women's exposure to midlife work-family demands and subsequent mortality risk. We used data from women born 1935 to 1956 in the Health and Retirement Study to calculate employment, marital, and parenthood statuses for each age between 16 and 50 years. We used sequence analysis to identify 7 prototypical work-family trajectories. We calculated age-standardized mortality rates and hazard ratios (HRs) for mortality associated with work-family sequences, with adjustment for covariates and potentially explanatory later-life factors. Married women staying home with children briefly before reentering the workforce had the lowest mortality rates. In comparison, after adjustment for age, race/ethnicity, and education, HRs for mortality were 2.14 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.58, 2.90) among single nonworking mothers, 1.48 (95% CI = 1.06, 1.98) among single working mothers, and 1.36 (95% CI = 1.02, 1.80) among married nonworking mothers. Adjustment for later-life behavioral and economic factors partially attenuated risks. Sequence analysis is a promising exposure assessment tool for life course research. This method permitted identification of certain lifetime work-family profiles associated with mortality risk before age 75 years.

  4. Diagnostic Risk Adjustment for Medicaid: The Disability Payment System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kronick, Richard; Dreyfus, Tony; Lee, Lora; Zhou, Zhiyuan

    1996-01-01

    This article describes a system of diagnostic categories that Medicaid programs can use for adjusting capitation payments to health plans that enroll people with disability. Medicaid claims from Colorado, Michigan, Missouri, New York, and Ohio are analyzed to demonstrate that the greater predictability of costs among people with disabilities makes risk adjustment more feasible than for a general population and more critical to creating health systems for people with disability. The application of our diagnostic categories to State claims data is described, including estimated effects on subsequent-year costs of various diagnoses. The challenges of implementing adjustment by diagnosis are explored. PMID:10172665

  5. Risk adjustment models for short-term outcomes after surgical resection for oesophagogastric cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, C; Lingsma, H; Hardwick, R; Cromwell, D A; Steyerberg, E; Groene, O

    2016-01-01

    Outcomes for oesophagogastric cancer surgery are compared with the aim of benchmarking quality of care. Adjusting for patient characteristics is crucial to avoid biased comparisons between providers. The study objective was to develop a case-mix adjustment model for comparing 30- and 90-day mortality and anastomotic leakage rates after oesophagogastric cancer resections. The study reviewed existing models, considered expert opinion and examined audit data in order to select predictors that were consequently used to develop a case-mix adjustment model for the National Oesophago-Gastric Cancer Audit, covering England and Wales. Models were developed on patients undergoing surgical resection between April 2011 and March 2013 using logistic regression. Model calibration and discrimination was quantified using a bootstrap procedure. Most existing risk models for oesophagogastric resections were methodologically weak, outdated or based on detailed laboratory data that are not generally available. In 4882 patients with oesophagogastric cancer used for model development, 30- and 90-day mortality rates were 2·3 and 4·4 per cent respectively, and 6·2 per cent of patients developed an anastomotic leak. The internally validated models, based on predictors selected from the literature, showed moderate discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve 0·646 for 30-day mortality, 0·664 for 90-day mortality and 0·587 for anastomotic leakage) and good calibration. Based on available data, three case-mix adjustment models for postoperative outcomes in patients undergoing curative surgery for oesophagogastric cancer were developed. These models should be used for risk adjustment when assessing hospital performance in the National Health Service, and tested in other large health systems. © 2015 BJS Society Ltd Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  6. Association of flavonoid-rich foods and flavonoids with risk of all-cause mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivey, Kerry L; Jensen, Majken K; Hodgson, Jonathan M; Eliassen, A Heather; Cassidy, Aedín; Rimm, Eric B

    2017-05-01

    Flavonoids are bioactive compounds found in foods such as tea, red wine, fruits and vegetables. Higher intakes of specific flavonoids, and flavonoid-rich foods, have been linked to reduced mortality from specific vascular diseases and cancers. However, the importance of flavonoid-rich foods, and flavonoids, in preventing all-cause mortality remains uncertain. As such, we examined the association of intake of flavonoid-rich foods and flavonoids with subsequent mortality among 93 145 young and middle-aged women in the Nurses' Health Study II. During 1 838 946 person-years of follow-up, 1808 participants died. When compared with non-consumers, frequent consumers of red wine, tea, peppers, blueberries and strawberries were at reduced risk of all-cause mortality (Pflavonoid intake were at reduced risk of all-cause mortality in the age-adjusted model; 0·81 (95 % CI 0·71, 0·93). However, this association was attenuated following multivariable adjustment; 0·92 (95 % CI 0·80, 1·06). Similar results were observed for consumption of flavan-3-ols, proanthocyanidins and anthocyanins. Flavonols, flavanones and flavones were not associated with all-cause mortality in any model. Despite null associations at the compound level and select foods, higher consumption of red wine, tea, peppers, blueberries and strawberries, was associated with reduced risk of total and cause-specific mortality. These findings support the rationale for making food-based dietary recommendations.

  7. Lifestyle factors and mortality risk in individuals with diabetes mellitus

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sluik, Diewertje; Boeing, Heiner; Li, Kuanrong

    2014-01-01

    among individuals with diabetes compared with those without was increased, with an HR of 1.62 (95% CI 1.51, 1.75). Intake of fruit, legumes, nuts, seeds, pasta, poultry and vegetable oil was related to a lower mortality risk, and intake of butter and margarine was related to an increased mortality risk...

  8. Space-Time Analysis to Identify Areas at Risk of Mortality from Cardiovascular Disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Poliany C. O. Rodrigues

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed at identifying areas that were at risk of mortality due to cardiovascular disease in residents aged 45 years or older of the cities of Cuiabá and Várzea Grande between 2009 and 2011. We conducted an ecological study of mortality rates related to cardiovascular disease. Mortality rates were calculated for each census tract by the Local Empirical Bayes estimator. High- and low-risk clusters were identified by retrospective space-time scans for each year using the Poisson probability model. We defined the year and month as the temporal analysis unit and the census tracts as the spatial analysis units adjusted by age and sex. The Mann-Whitney U test was used to compare the socioeconomic and environmental variables by risk classification. High-risk clusters showed higher income ratios than low-risk clusters, as did temperature range and atmospheric particulate matter. Low-risk clusters showed higher humidity than high-risk clusters. The Eastern region of Várzea Grande and the central region of Cuiabá were identified as areas at risk of mortality due to cardiovascular disease in individuals aged 45 years or older. High mortality risk was associated with socioeconomic and environmental factors. More high-risk clusters were observed at the end of the dry season.

  9. Risk adjusted surgical audit in gynaecological oncology: P-POSSUM does not predict outcome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, N; Talaat, A S; Naik, R; Lopes, A D; Godfrey, K A; Hatem, M H; Edmondson, R J

    2006-12-01

    To assess the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enumeration of mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) and its validity for use in gynaecological oncology surgery. All patients undergoing gynaecological oncology surgery at the Northern Gynaecological Oncology Centre (NGOC) Gateshead, UK over a period of 12months (2002-2003) were assessed prospectively. Mortality and morbidity predictions using the Portsmouth modification of the POSSUM algorithm (P-POSSUM) were compared to the actual outcomes. Performance of the model was also evaluated using the Hosmer and Lemeshow Chi square statistic (testing the goodness of fit). During this period 468 patients were assessed. The P-POSSUM appeared to over predict mortality rates for our patients. It predicted a 7% mortality rate for our patients compared to an observed rate of 2% (35 predicted deaths in comparison to 10 observed deaths), a difference that was statistically significant (H&L chi(2)=542.9, d.f. 8, prisk of mortality for gynaecological oncology patients undergoing surgery. The P-POSSUM algorithm will require further adjustments prior to adoption for gynaecological cancer surgery as a risk adjusted surgical audit tool.

  10. Evaluating intergenerational risks: Probabillity adjusted rank-discounted utilitarianism

    OpenAIRE

    Asheim, Geir B.; Zuber, Stéphane

    2015-01-01

    Climate policies have stochastic consequences that involve a great number of generations. This calls for evaluating social risk (what kind of societies will future people be born into) rather than individual risk (what will happen to people during their own lifetimes). As a response we propose and axiomatize probability adjusted rank-discounted critical-level generalized utilitarianism (PARDCLU), through a key axiom that requires that the social welfare order both be ethical and satisfy first...

  11. Personality, emotional adjustment, and cardiovascular risk: marriage as a mechanism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Timothy W; Baron, Carolynne E; Grove, Jeremy L

    2014-12-01

    A variety of aspects of personality and emotional adjustment predict the development and course of coronary heart disease (CHD), as do indications of marital quality (e.g., satisfaction, conflict, strain, disruption). Importantly, the personality traits and aspects of emotional adjustment that predict CHD are also related to marital quality. In such instances of correlated risk factors, traditional epidemiological and clinical research typically either ignores the potentially overlapping effects or examines independent associations through statistical controls, approaches that can misrepresent the key components and mechanisms of psychosocial effects on CHD. The interpersonal perspective in personality and clinical psychology provides an alternative and integrative approach, through its structural and process models of interpersonal behavior. We present this perspective on psychosocial risk and review research on its application to the integration of personality, emotional adjustment, and marital processes as closely interrelated influences on health and disease. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  12. Body mass index, exercise capacity, and mortality risk in male veterans with hypertension.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faselis, Charles; Doumas, Michael; Panagiotakos, Demosthenes; Kheirbek, Raya; Korshak, Lauren; Manolis, Athanasios; Pittaras, Andreas; Tsioufis, Costas; Papademetriou, Vasilios; Fletcher, Ross; Kokkinos, Peter

    2012-04-01

    Overweight and obesity are associated with increased risk of chronic diseases and mortality. Exercise capacity is inversely associated with mortality risk. However, little is known on the interaction between fitness, fatness, and mortality risk in hypertensive individuals. Thus, we assessed the interaction between exercise capacity, fatness, and all-cause mortality in hypertensive males. A graded exercise test was performed in 4,183 hypertensive veterans (mean age ± s.d.; 63.3 ± 10.5 years) at the Veterans Affairs Medical Center, Washington, DC. We defined three body weight categories based on body mass index (BMI): normal weight (BMI 7.5 METs). During a median follow-up period of 7.2 years, there were 1,000 deaths. The association between exercise capacity and mortality risk was strong, inverse, and graded. For each 1-MET increase in exercise capacity the adjusted risk was 20% for normal weight, 12% for overweight, and 25% for obese (P exercise capacity is associated with lower mortality risk in hypertensive males regardless of BMI. The risk for overweight and obese but fit individuals was significantly lower when compared to normal weight but unfit. These findings suggest that in older hypertensive men, it may be healthier to be fit regardless of standard BMI category than unfit and normal weight.

  13. Risk-adjusted capitation: Recent experiences in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    W.P.M.M. van de Ven (Wynand); R.C.J.A. van Vliet (René); E.M. van Barneveld (Erik); L.M. Lamers (Leida)

    1994-01-01

    textabstractThe market-oriented health care reforms taking place in the Netherlands show a clear resemblance to the proposals for managed competition in U.S. health care. In both countries good risk adjustment mechanisms that prevent cream skimming--that is, that prevent plans from selecting the

  14. Risk-adjusted capitation: recent experiences in The Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    W.P.M.M. van de Ven (Wynand); E.M. van Barneveld (Erik); L.M. Lamers (Leida); R.C.J.A. van Vliet (René)

    1994-01-01

    textabstractThe market-oriented health care reforms taking place in the Netherlands show a clear resemblance to the proposals for managed competition in U.S. health care. In both countries good risk adjustment mechanisms that prevent cream skimming--that is, that

  15. Mortality risk in a nationwide cohort of individuals with tic disorders and with tourette syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meier, Sandra M; Dalsgaard, Søren; Mortensen, Preben B; Leckman, James F; Plessen, Kerstin J

    2017-04-01

    Few studies have investigated mortality risk in individuals with tic disorders. We thus measured the risk of premature death in individuals with tic disorders and with Tourette syndrome in a prospective cohort study with 80 million person-years of follow-up. We estimated mortality rate ratios and adjusted for calendar year, age, sex, urbanicity, maternal and paternal age, and psychiatric disorders to compare individuals with and without tic disorders. The risk of premature death was higher among individuals with tic disorders (mortality rate ratio, 2.02; 95% CI, 1.49-2.66) and with Tourette syndrome (mortality rate ratio, 1.63; 95% CI, 1.11-2.28) compared with controls. After the exclusion of individuals with comorbid attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, obsessive-compulsive disorder, and substance abuse, tic disorder remained associated with increased mortality risk (mortality rate ratio, 2.30; 95% CI, 1.57-3.23), as did also Tourette Syndrome (mortality rate ratio, 1.81; 95% CI, 1.11-2.75). These results are of clinical significance for clinicians and advocacy organizations. Several factors may contribute to this increased risk of premature death, and more research mapping out these factors is needed. © 2017 International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society. © 2017 International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society.

  16. Risk factors for mortality in burn children

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Teresa Rosanova

    2014-03-01

    Conclusions: In this series of burn children age ≤ 4 years, Garces index score 4, colistin use in documented multiresistant infections, mechanical ventilation and graft requirement were identified as independent variables related with mortality.

  17. Portfolio balancing and risk adjusted values under constrained budget conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    MacKay, J.A.; Lerche, I.

    1996-01-01

    For a given hydrocarbon exploration opportunity, the influences of value, cost, success probability and corporate risk tolerance provide an optimal working interest that should be taken in the opportunity in order to maximize the risk adjusted value. When several opportunities are available, but when the total budget is insufficient to take optimal working interest in each, an analytic procedure is given for optimizing the risk adjusted value of the total portfolio; the relevant working interests are also derived based on a cost exposure constraint. Several numerical illustrations are provided to exhibit the use of the method under different budget conditions, and with different numbers of available opportunities. When value, cost, success probability, and risk tolerance are uncertain for each and every opportunity, the procedure is generalized to allow determination of probable optimal risk adjusted value for the total portfolio and, at the same time, the range of probable working interest that should be taken in each opportunity is also provided. The result is that the computations of portfolio balancing can be done quickly in either deterministic or probabilistic manners on a small calculator, thereby providing rapid assessments of opportunities and their worth to a corporation. (Author)

  18. Spatial implications of covariate adjustment on patterns of risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sabel, Clive Eric; Wilson, Jeff Gaines; Kingham, Simon

    2007-01-01

    Epidemiological studies that examine the relationship between environmental exposures and health often address other determinants of health that may influence the relationship being studied by adjusting for these factors as covariates. While disease surveillance methods routinely control...... for covariates such as deprivation, there has been limited investigative work on the spatial movement of risk at the intraurban scale due to the adjustment. It is important that the nature of any spatial relocation be well understood as a relocation to areas of increased risk may also introduce additional...... localised factors that influence the exposure-response relationship. This paper examines the spatial patterns of relative risk and clusters of hospitalisations based on an illustrative small-area example from Christchurch, New Zealand. A four-stage test of the spatial relocation effects of covariate...

  19. Diagnosis-Based Risk Adjustment for Medicare Capitation Payments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellis, Randall P.; Pope, Gregory C.; Iezzoni, Lisa I.; Ayanian, John Z.; Bates, David W.; Burstin, Helen; Ash, Arlene S.

    1996-01-01

    Using 1991-92 data for a 5-percent Medicare sample, we develop, estimate, and evaluate risk-adjustment models that utilize diagnostic information from both inpatient and ambulatory claims to adjust payments for aged and disabled Medicare enrollees. Hierarchical coexisting conditions (HCC) models achieve greater explanatory power than diagnostic cost group (DCG) models by taking account of multiple coexisting medical conditions. Prospective models predict average costs of individuals with chronic conditions nearly as well as concurrent models. All models predict medical costs far more accurately than the current health maintenance organization (HMO) payment formula. PMID:10172666

  20. Risk-adjusted scoring systems in colorectal surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leung, Edmund; McArdle, Kirsten; Wong, Ling S

    2011-01-01

    Consequent to recent advances in surgical techniques and management, survival rate has increased substantially over the last 25 years, particularly in colorectal cancer patients. However, post-operative morbidity and mortality from colorectal cancer vary widely across the country. Therefore, standardised outcome measures are emphasised not only for professional accountability, but also for comparison between treatment units and regions. In a heterogeneous population, the use of crude mortality as an outcome measure for patients undergoing surgery is simply misleading. Meaningful comparisons, however, require accurate risk stratification of patients being analysed before conclusions can be reached regarding the outcomes recorded. Sub-specialised colorectal surgical units usually dedicated to more complex and high-risk operations. The need for accurate risk prediction is necessary in these units as both mortality and morbidity often are tools to justify the practice of high-risk surgery. The Acute Physiology And Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) is a system for classifying patients in the intensive care unit. However, APACHE score was considered too complex for general surgical use. The American Society of Anaesthesiologists (ASA) grade has been considered useful as an adjunct to informed consent and for monitoring surgical performance through time. ASA grade is simple but too subjective. The Physiological & Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) and its variant Portsmouth POSSUM (P-POSSUM) were devised to predict outcomes in surgical patients in general, taking into account of the variables in the case-mix. POSSUM has two parts, which include assessment of physiological parameters and operative scores. There are 12 physiological parameters and 6 operative measures. The physiological parameters are taken at the time of surgery. Each physiological parameter or operative variable is sub-divided into three or four levels with

  1. Mortality risk in European children with end-stage renal disease on dialysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chesnaye, Nicholas C.; Schaefer, Franz; Groothoff, Jaap W.

    2016-01-01

    We aimed to describe survival in European pediatric dialysis patients and compare the differential mortality risk between patients starting on hemodialysis (HD) and peritoneal dialysis (PD). Data for 6473 patients under 19 years of age or younger were extracted from the European Society of Pediat...... dialysis (HD/PD adjusted HR 6.55, 95% CI 2.35–18.28, PSM HR 2.93, 95% CI 1.04–8.23). Because unmeasured case-mix differences and selection bias may explain the higher mortality risk in the HD population, these results should be interpreted with caution....

  2. Spatial elements of mortality risk in old-growth forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, Adrian; Battles, John; van Mantgem, Phillip J.; Stephenson, Nathan L.

    2008-01-01

    For many species of long-lived organisms, such as trees, survival appears to be the most critical vital rate affecting population persistence. However, methods commonly used to quantify tree death, such as relating tree mortality risk solely to diameter growth, almost certainly do not account for important spatial processes. Our goal in this study was to detect and, if present, to quantify the relevance of such processes. For this purpose, we examined purely spatial aspects of mortality for four species, Abies concolor, Abies magnifica, Calocedrus decurrens, and Pinus lambertiana, in an old-growth conifer forest in the Sierra Nevada of California, USA. The analysis was performed using data from nine fully mapped long-term monitoring plots.In three cases, the results unequivocally supported the inclusion of spatial information in models used to predict mortality. For Abies concolor, our results suggested that growth rate may not always adequately capture increased mortality risk due to competition. We also found evidence of a facilitative effect for this species, with mortality risk decreasing with proximity to conspecific neighbors. For Pinus lambertiana, mortality risk increased with density of conspecific neighbors, in keeping with a mechanism of increased pathogen or insect pressure (i.e., a Janzen-Connell type effect). Finally, we found that models estimating risk of being crushed were strongly improved by the inclusion of a simple index of spatial proximity.Not only did spatial indices improve models, those improvements were relevant for mortality prediction. For P. lambertiana, spatial factors were important for estimation of mortality risk regardless of growth rate. For A. concolor, although most of the population fell within spatial conditions in which mortality risk was well described by growth, trees that died occurred outside those conditions in a disproportionate fashion. Furthermore, as stands of A. concolor become increasingly dense, such spatial

  3. Perinatal mortality in twin pregnancy: an analysis of birth weight-specific mortality rates and adjusted mortality rates for birth weight distributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fabre, E; González de Agüero, R; de Agustin, J L; Pérez-Hiraldo, M P; Bescos, J L

    1988-01-01

    The objective of this study is to compare the fetal mortality rate (FMR), early neonatal mortality rate (ENMR) and perinatal mortality rate (PMR) of twin and single births. It is based on a survey which was carried out in 22 Hospital Centers in Spain in 1980, and covered 1,956 twins born and 110,734 singletons born. The FMR in twins was 36.3/1000 and 8.8/1000 for singletons. The ENMR in twins was 36.1/1000 and 5.7/1000 for singletons. The PMR in twins was 71.1/1000 and 14.4/1000 for singletons. When birthweight-specific PMR in twin and singletons births are compared, there were no differences between the rates for groups 500-999 g and 1000-1499 g. For birthweight groups of 1500-1999 g (124.4 vs 283.8/1000) and 2000-2999 g (29.6 vs 73.2/1000) the rates for twins were about twice lower than those for single births. The PMR for 2500 g and over birthweight was about twice higher in twins than in singletons (12.5 vs 5.5/1000). After we adjusted for birthweight there was a difference in the FMR (12.6 vs 9.8/1000) and the PMR (19.1 vs 16.0/1000, and no difference in the ENMR between twins and singletons (5.9 vs 6.4/1000), indicating that most of the differences among crude rates are due to differences in distribution of birthweight.

  4. Homelessness as an independent risk factor for mortality: results from a retrospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morrison, David S

    2009-06-01

    Homelessness is associated with increased risks of mortality but it has not previously been possible to distinguish whether this is typical of other socio-economically deprived populations, the result of a higher prevalence of morbidity or an independent risk of homelessness itself. The aim of this study was to describe mortality among a cohort of homeless adults and adjust for the effects of morbidity and socio-economic deprivation. Retrospective 5-year study of two fixed cohorts, homeless adults and an age- and sex-matched random sample of the local non-homeless population in Greater Glasgow National Health Service Board area for comparison. Over 5 years of observation, 1.7% (209/12 451) of the general population and 7.2% (457/6323) of the homeless cohort died. The hazard ratio of all-cause mortality in homeless compared with non-homeless cohorts was 4.4 (95% CI: 3.8-5.2). After adjustment for age, sex and previous hospitalization, homelessness was associated with an all-cause mortality hazard ratio of 1.6 (95% CI: 1.3-1.9). Homelessness had differential effects on cause-specific mortality. Among patients who had been hospitalized for drug-related conditions, the homeless cohort experienced a 7-fold increase in risk of death from drugs compared with the general population. Homelessness is an independent risk factor for deaths from specific causes. Preventive programmes might be most effectively targeted at the homeless with these conditions.

  5. Risk factors for mortality among tuberculosis patients on treatment at ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: Tuberculosis (TB) is still an important cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Though it can effectively be treated, still a significant proportion of patients die on the course of their treatment. The objective of this study was to determine the outcome and risk factors of mortality among patients diagnosed with ...

  6. Alcohol Abuse Increases Rebleeding Risk and Mortality in Patients with Non-variceal Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kärkkäinen, Jussi M; Miilunpohja, Sami; Rantanen, Tuomo; Koskela, Jenni M; Jyrkkä, Johanna; Hartikainen, Juha; Paajanen, Hannu

    2015-12-01

    No current data are available on rebleeding and mortality risk in patients who use alcohol excessively and are admitted for non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (NVUGIB). This information could help in planning interventions and follow-up protocols for these patients. This study provides contemporary data on the long-term outcome after first-time NVUGIB in alcohol abusers (AAs) compared to non-abusers (NAs). Consecutive patients hospitalized for their first acute gastrointestinal bleeding from 2009 through 2011 were retrospectively recorded and categorized as AA or NA. Risk factors for one-year mortality and rebleeding were identified, and patients were further monitored for long-term mortality until 2015. Alcohol abuse was identified in 19.7% of patients with NVUGIB (n = 518). The one-year rebleeding rate was 16.7% in AAs versus 9.1% in NAs (P = 0.027). Alcohol abuse was associated with a twofold increase in rebleeding risk (P = 0.025); the risk especially increased 6 months after the initial bleeding. The study groups did not differ significantly in 30-day (6.0%) or one-year mortality rates (20.5%). However, there was a tendency for higher overall mortality in AAs than NAs after adjustment of comorbidities. AAs with NVUGIB are at high risk of rebleeding, and mortality is increased in AA patients. A close follow-up strategy and long-term proton pump inhibitor therapy are recommended for AA patients with peptic ulcer or esophagitis.

  7. Increased Vascular Disease Mortality Risk in Prediabetic Korean Adults Is Mainly Attributable to Ischemic Stroke.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Nam Hoon; Kwon, Tae Yeon; Yu, Sungwook; Kim, Nan Hee; Choi, Kyung Mook; Baik, Sei Hyun; Park, Yousung; Kim, Sin Gon

    2017-04-01

    Prediabetes is a known risk factor for vascular diseases; however, its differential contribution to mortality risk from various vascular disease subtypes is not known. The subjects of the National Health Insurance Service in Korea (2002-2013) nationwide cohort were stratified into normal glucose tolerance (fasting glucose mortality risk for vascular disease and its subtypes-ischemic heart disease, ischemic stroke, and hemorrhagic stroke. When adjusted for age, sex, and body mass index, IFG stage 2, but not stage 1, was associated with significantly higher all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 1.26; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.18-1.34) and vascular disease mortality (HR, 1.27; 95% CI, 1.08-1.49) compared with normal glucose tolerance. Among the vascular disease subtypes, mortality from ischemic stroke was significantly higher (HR, 1.60; 95% CI, 1.18-2.18) in subjects with IFG stage 2 but not from ischemic heart disease and hemorrhagic stroke. The ischemic stroke mortality associated with IFG stage 2 remained significantly high when adjusted other modifiable vascular disease risk factors (HR, 1.51; 95% CI: 1.10-2.09) and medical treatments (HR, 1.75; 95% CI, 1.19-2.57). Higher IFG degree (fasting glucose, 110-125 mg/dL) was associated with increased all-cause and vascular disease mortality. The increased vascular disease mortality in IFG stage 2 was attributable to ischemic stroke, but not ischemic heart disease or hemorrhagic stroke in Korean adults. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

  8. Sex Differences in Stroke Incidence, Prevalence, Mortality and Disability-Adjusted Life Years

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barker-Collo, Suzanne; Bennett, Derrick A; Krishnamurthi, Rita V

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Accurate information on stroke burden in men and women are important for evidence-based healthcare planning and resource allocation. Previously, limited research suggested that the absolute number of deaths from stroke in women was greater than in men, but the incidence and mortality...... incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and healthy years lost due to disability were estimated as part of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2013 Study. Data inputs included all available information on stroke incidence, prevalence and death and case fatality rates...... ischemic stroke (IS) and hemorrhagic stroke (HS) incidence (per 100,000) in men (IS 132.77 (95% UI 125.34-142.77); HS 64.89 (95% UI 59.82-68.85)) exceeded those of women (IS 98.85 (95% UI 92.11-106.62); HS 45.48 (95% UI 42.43-48.53)). IS incidence rates were lower in 2013 compared with 1990 rates for both...

  9. The New York Sepsis Severity Score: Development of a Risk-Adjusted Severity Model for Sepsis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, Gary S; Osborn, Tiffany M; Terry, Kathleen M; Gesten, Foster; Levy, Mitchell M; Lemeshow, Stanley

    2018-05-01

    In accordance with Rory's Regulations, hospitals across New York State developed and implemented protocols for sepsis recognition and treatment to reduce variations in evidence informed care and preventable mortality. The New York Department of Health sought to develop a risk assessment model for accurate and standardized hospital mortality comparisons of adult septic patients across institutions using case-mix adjustment. Retrospective evaluation of prospectively collected data. Data from 43,204 severe sepsis and septic shock patients from 179 hospitals across New York State were evaluated. Prospective data were submitted to a database from January 1, 2015, to December 31, 2015. None. Maximum likelihood logistic regression was used to estimate model coefficients used in the New York State risk model. The mortality probability was estimated using a logistic regression model. Variables to be included in the model were determined as part of the model-building process. Interactions between variables were included if they made clinical sense and if their p values were less than 0.05. Model development used a random sample of 90% of available patients and was validated using the remaining 10%. Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit p values were considerably greater than 0.05, suggesting good calibration. Areas under the receiver operator curve in the developmental and validation subsets were 0.770 (95% CI, 0.765-0.775) and 0.773 (95% CI, 0.758-0.787), respectively, indicating good discrimination. Development and validation datasets had similar distributions of estimated mortality probabilities. Mortality increased with rising age, comorbidities, and lactate. The New York Sepsis Severity Score accurately estimated the probability of hospital mortality in severe sepsis and septic shock patients. It performed well with respect to calibration and discrimination. This sepsis-specific model provides an accurate, comprehensive method for standardized mortality comparison of adult

  10. Insulin Sensitivity and Mortality Risk Estimation in Patients with Type ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2016-07-15

    Jul 15, 2016 ... density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL), triglycerides (TG), high‑density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL), urinary albumin‑to‑creatinine ratio ... the mortality risk scores in patients with T2DM and its relationship with insulin resistance.

  11. Risk Selection, Risk Adjustment and Choice: Concepts and Lessons from the Americas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellis, Randall P.; Fernandez, Juan Gabriel

    2013-01-01

    Interest has grown worldwide in risk adjustment and risk sharing due to their potential to contain costs, improve fairness, and reduce selection problems in health care markets. Significant steps have been made in the empirical development of risk adjustment models, and in the theoretical foundations of risk adjustment and risk sharing. This literature has often modeled the effects of risk adjustment without highlighting the institutional setting, regulations, and diverse selection problems that risk adjustment is intended to fix. Perhaps because of this, the existing literature and their recommendations for optimal risk adjustment or optimal payment systems are sometimes confusing. In this paper, we present a unified way of thinking about the organizational structure of health care systems, which enables us to focus on two key dimensions of markets that have received less attention: what choices are available that may lead to selection problems, and what financial or regulatory tools other than risk adjustment are used to influence these choices. We specifically examine the health care systems, choices, and problems in four countries: the US, Canada, Chile, and Colombia, and examine the relationship between selection-related efficiency and fairness problems and the choices that are allowed in each country, and discuss recent regulatory reforms that affect choices and selection problems. In this sample, countries and insurance programs with more choices have more selection problems. PMID:24284351

  12. Risk Selection, Risk Adjustment and Choice: Concepts and Lessons from the Americas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Randall P. Ellis

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Interest has grown worldwide in risk adjustment and risk sharing due to their potential to contain costs, improve fairness, and reduce selection problems in health care markets. Significant steps have been made in the empirical development of risk adjustment models, and in the theoretical foundations of risk adjustment and risk sharing. This literature has often modeled the effects of risk adjustment without highlighting the institutional setting, regulations, and diverse selection problems that risk adjustment is intended to fix. Perhaps because of this, the existing literature and their recommendations for optimal risk adjustment or optimal payment systems are sometimes confusing. In this paper, we present a unified way of thinking about the organizational structure of health care systems, which enables us to focus on two key dimensions of markets that have received less attention: what choices are available that may lead to selection problems, and what financial or regulatory tools other than risk adjustment are used to influence these choices. We specifically examine the health care systems, choices, and problems in four countries: the US, Canada, Chile, and Colombia, and examine the relationship between selection-related efficiency and fairness problems and the choices that are allowed in each country, and discuss recent regulatory reforms that affect choices and selection problems. In this sample, countries and insurance programs with more choices have more selection problems.

  13. Meta-analysis of breast cancer mortality benefit and overdiagnosis adjusted for adherence: improving information on the effects of attending screening mammography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacklyn, Gemma; Glasziou, Paul; Macaskill, Petra; Barratt, Alexandra

    2016-01-01

    Background: Women require information about the impact of regularly attending screening mammography on breast cancer mortality and overdiagnosis to make informed decisions. To provide this information we aimed to meta-analyse randomised controlled trials adjusted for adherence to the trial protocol. Methods: Nine screening mammography trials used in the Independent UK Breast Screening Report were selected. Extending an existing approach to adjust intention-to-treat (ITT) estimates for less than 100% adherence rates, we conducted a random-effects meta-analysis. This produced a combined deattenuated prevented fraction and a combined deattenuated percentage risk of overdiagnosis. Results: In women aged 39–75 years invited to screen, the prevented fraction of breast cancer mortality at 13-year follow-up was 0.22 (95% CI 0.15–0.28) and it increased to 0.30 (95% CI 0.18–0.42) with deattenuation. In women aged 40–69 years invited to screen, the ITT percentage risk of overdiagnosis during the screening period was 19.0% (95% CI 15.2–22.7%), deattenuation increased this to 29.7% (95% CI 17.8–41.5%). Conclusions: Adjustment for nonadherence increased the size of the mortality benefit and risk of overdiagnosis by up to 50%. These estimates are more appropriate when developing quantitative information to support individual decisions about attending screening mammography. PMID:27124337

  14. Peritonitis in Rwanda: Epidemiology and risk factors for morbidity and mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ndayizeye, Leonard; Ngarambe, Christian; Smart, Blair; Riviello, Robert; Majyambere, Jean Paul; Rickard, Jennifer

    2016-12-01

    Few studies discuss causes and outcomes of peritonitis in low-income settings. This study describes epidemiology of patients with peritonitis at a Rwandan referral hospital. Identification of risk factors associated with mortality and unplanned reoperation could improve management of peritonitis. Data were collected on demographics, clinical presentation, operative findings, and outcomes for all patients with peritonitis. Multivariate regression analysis identified factors associated with in-hospital mortality and unplanned reoperation. A total of 280 patients presented with peritonitis over a 6-month period. Causes of peritonitis were complications of intestinal obstruction (39%) and appendicitis (17%). Thirty-six (13%) patients required unplanned reoperation, and in-hospital mortality was 17%. Factors associated with increased odds of in-hospital mortality were unplanned reoperation (adjusted odds ratio 34.12), vasopressor use (adjusted odds ratio 24.91), abnormal white blood cell count (adjusted odds ratio 12.6), intensive care unit admission (adjusted odds ratio 9.06), and American Society of Anesthesiologist score ≥3 (adjusted odds ratio 7.80). Factors associated with increased odds of unplanned reoperation included typhoid perforation (adjusted odds ratio 5.92) and hypoxia on admission (adjusted odds ratio 3.82). Peritonitis in Rwanda presents with high morbidity and mortality. Minimizing delays in care is important, as many patients with intestinal obstruction present with features of peritonitis. A better understanding of patient care and management prior to arrival at the referral hospital is needed to identify areas for improvement at the health center and district hospital. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. A biological approach to the interspecies prediction of radiation-induced mortality risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carnes, B.A.; Grahn, D.; Olshansky, S.J.

    1997-01-01

    Evolutionary explanations for why sexually reproducing organisms grow old suggest that the forces of natural selection affect the ages when diseases occur that are subject to a genetic influence (referred to here as intrinsic diseases). When extended to the population level for a species, this logic leads to the general prediction that age-specific death rates from intrinsic causes should begin to rise as the force of selection wanes once the characteristic age of sexual maturity is attained. Results consistent with these predictions have been found for laboratory mice, beagles, and humans where, after adjusting for differences in life span, it was demonstrated that these species share a common age pattern of mortality for intrinsic causes of death. In quantitative models used to predict radiation-induced mortality, risks are often expressed as multiples of those observed in a control population. A control population, however, is an aging population. As such, mortality risks related to exposure must be interpreted relative to the age-specific risk of death associated with aging. Given the previous success in making interspecies predictions of age-related mortality, the purpose of this study was to determine whether radiation-induced mortality observed in one species could also be predicted quantitatively from a model used to describe the mortality consequences of exposure to radiation in a different species. Mortality data for B6CF 1 mice and beagles exposed to 60 Co γ-rays for the duration of life were used for analysis

  16. Culture, risk factors and mortality: can Switzerland add missing pieces to the European puzzle?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faeh, D; Minder, C; Gutzwiller, F; Bopp, M

    2009-08-01

    The aim was to compare cause-specific mortality, self-rated health (SRH) and risk factors in the French and German part of Switzerland and to discuss to what extent variations between these regions reflect differences between France and Germany. Data were used from the general population of German and French Switzerland with 2.8 million individuals aged 45-74 years, contributing 176 782 deaths between 1990 and 2000. Adjusted mortality risks were calculated from the Swiss National Cohort, a longitudinal census-based record linkage study. Results were contrasted with cross-sectional analyses of SRH and risk factors (Swiss Health Survey 1992/3) and with cross-sectional national and international mortality rates for 1980, 1990 and 2000. Despite similar all-cause mortality, there were substantial differences in cause-specific mortality between Swiss regions. Deaths from circulatory disease were more common in German Switzerland, while causes related to alcohol consumption were more prevalent in French Switzerland. Many but not all of the mortality differences between the two regions could be explained by variations in risk factors. Similar patterns were found between Germany and France. Characteristic mortality and behavioural differentials between the German- and the French-speaking parts of Switzerland could also be found between Germany and France. However, some of the international variations in mortality were not in line with the Swiss regional comparison nor with differences in risk factors. These could relate to peculiarities in assignment of cause of death. With its cultural diversity, Switzerland offers the opportunity to examine cultural determinants of mortality without bias due to different statistical systems or national health policies.

  17. Mortality Risk Among Heart Failure Patients With Depression

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Adelborg, Kasper; Schmidt, Morten; Sundbøll, Jens

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The prevalence of depression is 4- to 5-fold higher in heart failure patients than in the general population. We examined the influence of depression on all-cause mortality in patients with heart failure. METHODS AND RESULTS: Using Danish medical registries, this nationwide population...... by left ventricular ejection fraction, with adjusted mortality rate ratios of 1.17 (95% CI, 1.05-1.31) for ≤35%, 0.98 (95% CI 0.81-1.18) for 36% to 49%, and 0.96 (95% CI 0.74-1.25) for ≥50%. Results were consistent after adjustment for alcohol abuse and smoking. CONCLUSIONS: A history of depression...... was an adverse prognostic factor for all-cause mortality in heart failure patients with left ventricular ejection fraction ≤35% but not for other heart failure patients....

  18. Parenting style in childhood and mortality risk at older ages: a longitudinal cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demakakos, Panayotes; Pillas, Demetris; Marmot, Michael; Steptoe, Andrew

    2016-08-01

    Parenting style is associated with offspring health, but whether it is associated with offspring mortality at older ages remains unknown. We examined whether childhood experiences of suboptimal parenting style are associated with increased risk of death at older ages. Longitudinal cohort study of 1964 community-dwelling adults aged 65-79 years. The association between parenting style and mortality was inverse and graded. Participants in the poorest parenting style score quartile had increased risk of death (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.72, 95% CI 1.20-2.48) compared with those in the optimal parenting style score quartile after adjustment for age and gender. Full adjustment for covariates partially explained this association (HR = 1.49, 95% CI 1.02-2.18). Parenting style was inversely associated with cancer and other mortality, but not cardiovascular mortality. Maternal and paternal parenting styles were individually associated with mortality. Experiences of suboptimal parenting in childhood are associated with increased risk of death at older ages. © The Royal College of Psychiatrists 2016.

  19. Parenting style in childhood and mortality risk at old age: a longitudinal cohort study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demakakos, Panayotes; Pillas, Demetris; Marmot, Michael; Steptoe, Andrew

    2018-01-01

    Background Parenting style is associated with offspring health, but whether it is associated with offspring mortality at older ages remains unknown. Aims We examined whether childhood experiences of suboptimal parenting style are associated with increased risk of death at older ages. Method Longitudinal cohort study of 1,964 community-dwelling adults aged 65 to 79 years. Results The association between parenting style and mortality was inverse and graded. Participants in the poorest parenting style score quartile had increased risk of death (hazard ratio (HR) 1.72; 95% CI, 1.20-2.48) compared with those in the optimal parenting style score quartile after adjustment for age and sex. Full adjustment for covariates partially explained this association (HR 1.49; 95% CI, 1.02-2.18). Parenting style was inversely associated with cancer and other mortality, but not cardiovascular mortality. Maternal and paternal parenting styles were individually associated with mortality. Conclusions Experiences of suboptimal parenting in childhood are associated with increased risk of death at older ages. PMID:26941265

  20. Mortality risk factor analysis in colonic perforation: would retroperitoneal contamination increase mortality in colonic perforation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoo, Ri Na; Kye, Bong-Hyeon; Kim, Gun; Kim, Hyung Jin; Cho, Hyeon-Min

    2017-10-01

    Colonic perforation is a lethal condition presenting high morbidity and mortality in spite of urgent surgical treatment. This study investigated the surgical outcome of patients with colonic perforation associated with retroperitoneal contamination. Retrospective analysis was performed for 30 patients diagnosed with colonic perforation caused by either inflammation or ischemia who underwent urgent surgical treatment in our facility from January 2005 to December 2014. Patient characteristics were analyzed to find risk factors correlated with increased postoperative mortality. Using the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the Enumeration of Mortality and Morbidity (POSSUM) audit system, the mortality and morbidity rates were estimated to verify the surgical outcomes. Patients with retroperitoneal contamination, defined by the presence of retroperitoneal air in the preoperative abdominopelvic CT, were compared to those without retroperitoneal contamination. Eight out of 30 patients (26.7%) with colonic perforation had died after urgent surgical treatment. Factors associated with mortality included age, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) physical status classification, and the ischemic cause of colonic perforation. Three out of 6 patients (50%) who presented retroperitoneal contamination were deceased. Although the patients with retroperitoneal contamination did not show significant increase in the mortality rate, they showed significantly higher ASA physical status classification than those without retroperitoneal contamination. The mortality rate predicted from Portsmouth POSSUM was higher in the patients with retroperitoneal contamination. Patients presenting colonic perforation along with retroperitoneal contamination demonstrated severe comorbidity. However, retroperitoneal contamination was not found to be correlated with the mortality rate.

  1. Volunteering by older adults and risk of mortality: a meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okun, Morris A; Yeung, Ellen WanHeung; Brown, Stephanie

    2013-06-01

    Organizational volunteering has been touted as an effective strategy for older adults to help themselves while helping others. Extending previous reviews, we carried out a meta-analysis of the relation between organizational volunteering by late-middle-aged and older adults (minimum age = 55 years old) and risk of mortality. We focused on unadjusted effect sizes (i.e., bivariate relations), adjusted effect sizes (i.e., controlling for other variables such as health), and interaction effect sizes (e.g., the joint effect of volunteering and religiosity). For unadjusted effect sizes, on average, volunteering reduced mortality risk by 47%, with a 95% confidence interval ranging from 38% to 55%. For adjusted effect sizes, on average, volunteering reduced mortality risk by 24%, with a 95% confidence interval ranging from 16% to 31%. For interaction effect sizes, we found preliminary support that as public religiosity increases, the inverse relation between volunteering and mortality risk becomes stronger. The discussion identifies several unresolved issues and directions for future research. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

  2. Educational differences in cardiovascular mortality: The role of shared family factors and cardiovascular risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kjøllesdal, M K R; Ariansen, I; Mortensen, L H; Davey Smith, G; Næss, Ø

    2016-12-01

    To explore the confounding effects of early family factors shared by siblings and cardiovascular risk factors in midlife on the educational differences in mortality from cardiovascular disease (CVD). Data from national and regional health surveys in Norway (1974-2003) were linked with data from the Norwegian Family Based Life Course Study, the National Educational Registry and the Cause of Death Registry. The study population consisted of participants with at least one full sibling among the health survey participants ( n=271,310). Data were available on CVD risk factors, including weight, height, blood pressure, total cholesterol and smoking. The hazards ratio (HR) of CVD mortality was 3.44 (95% confidence interval (CI) 2.98-3.96) in the lowest educational group relative to the highest. The HRs were little altered in the within-sibship analyses. Adjusted for risk factors, the HR for CVD mortality in the cohort analyses was 2.05 (CI 1.77-2.37) in the lowest educational group relative to the highest. The respective HR in the within-sibship analyses was 2.46 (CI 1.48-2.24). Using a sibling design, we did not find that the association between education and CVD mortality was confounded by early life factors shared by siblings, but it was explained to a large extent by CVD risk factors. These results suggest that reducing levels of CVD risk factors could have the greatest effect on mortality in less well-educated people.

  3. Can the Obesity Surgery Mortality Risk Score predict postoperative complications other than mortality?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Major, Piotr; Wysocki, Michał; Pędziwiatr, Michał; Małczak, Piotr; Pisarska, Magdalena; Migaczewski, Marcin; Winiarski, Marek; Budzyński, Andrzej

    2016-01-01

    Laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy (LSG) and laparoscopic Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (LRYGB) are bariatric procedures with acceptable risk of postoperative morbidities and mortalities, but identification of high-risk patients is an ongoing issue. DeMaria et al. introduced the Obesity Surgery Mortality Risk Score (OS-MRS), which was designed for mortality risk assessment but not perioperative morbidity risk. To assess the possibility to use the OS-MRS to predict the risk of perioperative complications related to LSG and LRYGB. Retrospective analysis of patients operated on for morbid obesity was performed. Patients were evaluated before and after surgery. We included 408 patients (233 LSG, 175 LRYGB). Perioperative complications were defined as adverse effects in the 30-day period. The Clavien-Dindo scale was used for description of complications. Patients were assigned to five grades and three classes according to the OS-MRS results, then risk of morbidity was analyzed. Complications were observed in 30 (7.35%) patients. Similar morbidity was related to both procedures (OR = 1.14, 95% CI: 0.53-2.44, p = 0.744). The reoperation and mortality rates were 1.23% and 0.49% respectively. There were no significant differences in median OS-MRS value between the group without and the group with perioperative complications. There were no significant differences in OS-MRS between groups (p = 0.091). Obesity Surgery Mortality Risk Score was not related to Clavien-Dindo grades (p = 0.800). It appears that OS-MRS is not useful in predicting risk of perioperative morbidity after bariatric procedures.

  4. Established risk factors account for most of the racial differences in cardiovascular disease mortality.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sean O Henderson

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease (CVD mortality varies across racial and ethnic groups in the U.S., and the extent that known risk factors can explain the differences has not been extensively explored. METHODS: We examined the risk of dying from acute myocardial infarction (AMI and other heart disease (OHD among 139,406 African-American (AA, Native Hawaiian (NH, Japanese-American (JA, Latino and White men and women initially free from cardiovascular disease followed prospectively between 1993-1996 and 2003 in the Multiethnic Cohort Study (MEC. During this period, 946 deaths from AMI and 2,323 deaths from OHD were observed. Relative risks of AMI and OHD mortality were calculated accounting for established CVD risk factors: body mass index (BMI, hypertension, diabetes, smoking, alcohol consumption, amount of vigorous physical activity, educational level, diet and, for women, type and age at menopause and hormone replacement therapy (HRT use. RESULTS: Established CVD risk factors explained much of the observed racial and ethnic differences in risk of AMI and OHD mortality. After adjustment, NH men and women had greater risks of OHD than Whites (69% excess, P<0.001 and 62% excess, P = 0.003, respectively, and AA women had greater risks of AMI (48% excess, P = 0.01 and OHD (35% excess, P = 0.007. JA men had lower risks of AMI (51% deficit, P<0.001 and OHD (27% deficit, P = 0.001, as did JA women (AMI, 37% deficit, P = 0.03; OHD, 40% deficit, P = 0.001. Latinos had underlying lower risk of AMI death (26% deficit in men and 35% in women, P = 0.03. CONCLUSION: Known risk factors explain the majority of racial and ethnic differences in mortality due to AMI and OHD. The unexplained excess in NH and AA and the deficits in JA suggest the presence of unmeasured determinants for cardiovascular mortality that are distributed unequally across these populations.

  5. Essays on long-term mortality and interest rate risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Kort, J.P.

    2017-01-01

    This dissertation comprises a study of long-term risks which play a major role in actuarial science. In Part I we analyse long-term mortality risk and its impact on consumption and investment decisions of economic agents, while Part II focuses on the mathematical modelling of long-term interest

  6. Mortality risks in new-onset childhood epilepsy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A.T. Berg (Anne); K. Nickels (Katherine); E.C. Wirrell (Elaine); A.T. Geerts (Ada); P.M.C. Callenbach (Petra); W.F.M. Arts (Willem Frans); C. Rios (Christina); P. Camfield (Peter); C. Camfield (Carol)

    2013-01-01

    textabstractOBJECTIVES: Estimate the causes and risk of death, specifically seizure related, in children followed from onset of epilepsy and to contrast the risk of seizure-related death with other common causes of death in the population. METHODS: Mortality experiences from 4 pediatric cohorts of

  7. Mortality Risks in New-Onset Childhood Epilepsy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Berg, Anne T.; Nickels, Katherine; Wirrell, Elaine C.; Geerts, Ada T.; Callenbach, Petra M. C.; Arts, Willem F.; Rios, Christina; Camfield, Peter R.; Camfield, Carol S.

    OBJECTIVES: Estimate the causes and risk of death, specifically seizure related, in children followed from onset of epilepsy and to contrast the risk of seizure-related death with other common causes of death in the population. METHODS: Mortality experiences from 4 pediatric cohorts of newly

  8. Relapse and Mortality Risk of Stage I Testicular Cancer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Florvall, Cecilia; Frederiksen, Peder; Lauritsen, Jakob

    2017-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: - To assess the medical insurance risk for patients with stage I testicular cancer (TC), by calculating the overall mortality risk with and without relapse, and compare it to men from the Danish population. BACKGROUND: - Testicular cancer is the most common malignancy in young males...

  9. Leisure-time running reduces all-cause and cardiovascular mortality risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Duck-Chul; Pate, Russell R; Lavie, Carl J; Sui, Xuemei; Church, Timothy S; Blair, Steven N

    2014-08-05

    Although running is a popular leisure-time physical activity, little is known about the long-term effects of running on mortality. The dose-response relations between running, as well as the change in running behaviors over time, and mortality remain uncertain. We examined the associations of running with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality risks in 55,137 adults, 18 to 100 years of age (mean age 44 years). Running was assessed on a medical history questionnaire by leisure-time activity. During a mean follow-up of 15 years, 3,413 all-cause and 1,217 cardiovascular deaths occurred. Approximately 24% of adults participated in running in this population. Compared with nonrunners, runners had 30% and 45% lower adjusted risks of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, respectively, with a 3-year life expectancy benefit. In dose-response analyses, the mortality benefits in runners were similar across quintiles of running time, distance, frequency, amount, and speed, compared with nonrunners. Weekly running even benefits, with 29% and 50% lower risks of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, respectively, compared with never-runners. Running, even 5 to 10 min/day and at slow speeds benefits. Copyright © 2014 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Reliability of risk-adjusted outcomes for profiling hospital surgical quality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krell, Robert W; Hozain, Ahmed; Kao, Lillian S; Dimick, Justin B

    2014-05-01

    Quality improvement platforms commonly use risk-adjusted morbidity and mortality to profile hospital performance. However, given small hospital caseloads and low event rates for some procedures, it is unclear whether these outcomes reliably reflect hospital performance. To determine the reliability of risk-adjusted morbidity and mortality for hospital performance profiling using clinical registry data. A retrospective cohort study was conducted using data from the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program, 2009. Participants included all patients (N = 55,466) who underwent colon resection, pancreatic resection, laparoscopic gastric bypass, ventral hernia repair, abdominal aortic aneurysm repair, and lower extremity bypass. Outcomes included risk-adjusted overall morbidity, severe morbidity, and mortality. We assessed reliability (0-1 scale: 0, completely unreliable; and 1, perfectly reliable) for all 3 outcomes. We also quantified the number of hospitals meeting minimum acceptable reliability thresholds (>0.70, good reliability; and >0.50, fair reliability) for each outcome. For overall morbidity, the most common outcome studied, the mean reliability depended on sample size (ie, how high the hospital caseload was) and the event rate (ie, how frequently the outcome occurred). For example, mean reliability for overall morbidity was low for abdominal aortic aneurysm repair (reliability, 0.29; sample size, 25 cases per year; and event rate, 18.3%). In contrast, mean reliability for overall morbidity was higher for colon resection (reliability, 0.61; sample size, 114 cases per year; and event rate, 26.8%). Colon resection (37.7% of hospitals), pancreatic resection (7.1% of hospitals), and laparoscopic gastric bypass (11.5% of hospitals) were the only procedures for which any hospitals met a reliability threshold of 0.70 for overall morbidity. Because severe morbidity and mortality are less frequent outcomes, their mean

  11. Cardiovascular morbidity and mortality risk factors in peritoneal dialysis patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jovanović Dijana B.

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Cardiovascular (CVS morbidity and mortality in the endstage renal disease (ESRD patients on peritoneal dialysis therapy is 10-30 folds higher than in general population. The prevalence of well known traditional risk factors such as age, sex, race, arterial hypertension, hyperlipidaemia, diabetes, smoking, physical inactivity is higher in the uraemic patients. Besides these, there are specific, nontraditional risk factors for dialysis patients. Mild inflammation present in peritoneal dialysis (PD patients which can be confirmed by specific inflammatory markers is the cause of CVS morbidity and mortality in these patients. Hypoalbuminaemia, hyperhomocysteinaemia and a higher level of leptin are important predictors of vascular complications as well as CVS events in the PD patients. Plasma norepinephrine, an indicator of sympathetic activity, is high in the ESRD patients and higher in the PD patients than in the patients on haemodialysis (HD. Therefore, norepinephrine may be a stronger risk factor in the PD patients. The same applies to asymmetric dimethylargine (ADMA, an endogenous inhibitor of nitric oxide synthase, which is an important risk factor of CVS morbidity and mortality 15 % higher in the PD than the HD patients. Hyperphosphataemia, secondary hyperparathyroidism and high calcium x phosphate product have been associated with the progression of the coronary artery calcification and valvular calcifications and predict all-cause CVS mortality in the PD patients. Residual renal function (RRF declines with time on dialysis but is slower in the PD than the HD patients. RRF decline is associated with the rise of proinflammatory cytokines and the onset of hypervolaemia and hypertension which increase the risk of CVS diseases, mortality in general and CVS mortality. In conclusion, it is very important to establish all CVS risk factors in the PD patients to prevent CVS diseases and CVS mortality in this population.

  12. Cardiovascular Risk Factors and 5-year Mortality in the Copenhagen Stroke Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kammersgaard, Lars Peter; Olsen, Tom Skyhøj

    2005-01-01

    population. METHODS: We studied 905 ischemic stroke patients from the community-based Copenhagen Stroke Study. Patients had a CT scan and stroke severity was measured by the Scandinavian Stroke Scale on admission. A comprehensive evaluation was performed by a standardized medical examination...... and questionnaire for cardiovascular risk factors, age, and sex. Follow-up was performed 5 years after stroke, and data on mortality were obtained for all, except 6, who had left the country. Five-year mortality was calculated by the Kaplan-Meier procedure and the influence of multiple predictors was analyzed...... by Cox proportional hazards analyses adjusted for age, gender, stroke severity, and risk factor profile. RESULTS: In Kaplan-Meier analyses atrial fibrillation (AF), ischemic heart disease, diabetes, and previous stroke were associated with increased mortality, while smoking and alcohol intake were...

  13. Cardiovascular risk factors and 5-year mortality in the Copenhagen Stroke Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kammersgaard, Lars Peter; Olsen, Tom Skyhøj

    2005-01-01

    population. METHODS: We studied 905 ischemic stroke patients from the community-based Copenhagen Stroke Study. Patients had a CT scan and stroke severity was measured by the Scandinavian Stroke Scale on admission. A comprehensive evaluation was performed by a standardized medical examination...... and questionnaire for cardiovascular risk factors, age, and sex. Follow-up was performed 5 years after stroke, and data on mortality were obtained for all, except 6, who had left the country. Five-year mortality was calculated by the Kaplan-Meier procedure and the influence of multiple predictors was analyzed...... by Cox proportional hazards analyses adjusted for age, gender, stroke severity, and risk factor profile. RESULTS: In Kaplan-Meier analyses atrial fibrillation (AF), ischemic heart disease, diabetes, and previous stroke were associated with increased mortality, while smoking and alcohol intake were...

  14. Impact of selected risk factors on quality-adjusted life expectancy in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brønnum-Hansen, Henrik; Juel, Knud; Davidsen, Michael

    2007-01-01

    AIMS: The construct quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) combines mortality and overall health status and can be used to quantify the impact of risk factors on population health. The purpose of the study was to estimate the impact of tobacco smoking, high alcohol consumption, physical inactivity...... Health Survey 2000, and Danish EQ-5D values. RESULTS: The quality-adjusted life expectancy of 25-year-olds was 10-11 QALYs shorter for heavy smokers than for those who never smoke. The difference in life expectancy was 9-10 years. Men and women with high alcohol consumption could expect to lose about 5...... and 3 QALYs, respectively. Sedentary persons could expect to have about 7 fewer QALYs than physically active persons. Obesity shortened QALYs by almost 3 for men and 6 for women. CONCLUSIONS: Smoking, high alcohol consumption, physical inactivity, and obesity strongly reduce life expectancy and health...

  15. Measurement Of Shariah Stock Performance Using Risk Adjusted Performance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zuhairan Y Yunan

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this research is to analyze the shariah stock performance using risk adjusted performance method. There are three parameters to measure the stock performance i.e. Sharpe, Treynor, and Jensen. This performance’s measurements calculate the return and risk factor from shariah stocks. The data that used on this research is using the data of stocks at Jakarta Islamic Index. Sampling method that used on this paper is purposive sampling. This research is using ten companies as a sample. The result shows that from three parameters, the stock that have a best performance are AALI, ANTM, ASII, CPIN, INDF, KLBF, LSIP, and UNTR.DOI: 10.15408/aiq.v7i1.1364

  16. A high dietary glycemic index increases total mortality in a Mediterranean population at high cardiovascular risk.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Itandehui Castro-Quezada

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: Different types of carbohydrates have diverse glycemic response, thus glycemic index (GI and glycemic load (GL are used to assess this variation. The impact of dietary GI and GL in all-cause mortality is unknown. The objective of this study was to estimate the association between dietary GI and GL and risk of all-cause mortality in the PREDIMED study. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The PREDIMED study is a randomized nutritional intervention trial for primary cardiovascular prevention based on community-dwelling men and women at high risk of cardiovascular disease. Dietary information was collected at baseline and yearly using a validated 137-item food frequency questionnaire (FFQ. We assigned GI values of each item by a 5-step methodology, using the International Tables of GI and GL Values. Deaths were ascertained through contact with families and general practitioners, review of medical records and consultation of the National Death Index. Cox regression models were used to estimate multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HR and their 95% CI for mortality, according to quartiles of energy-adjusted dietary GI/GL. To assess repeated measures of exposure, we updated GI and GL intakes from the yearly FFQs and used Cox models with time-dependent exposures. RESULTS: We followed 3,583 non-diabetic subjects (4.7 years of follow-up, 123 deaths. As compared to participants in the lowest quartile of baseline dietary GI, those in the highest quartile showed an increased risk of all-cause mortality [HR = 2.15 (95% CI: 1.15-4.04; P for trend  = 0.012]. In the repeated-measures analyses using as exposure the yearly updated information on GI, we observed a similar association. Dietary GL was associated with all-cause mortality only when subjects were younger than 75 years. CONCLUSIONS: High dietary GI was positively associated with all-cause mortality in elderly population at high cardiovascular risk.

  17. Mortality risk factors during readmission at the Department of Medicine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trakulthong, Chayanis; Phunmanee, Anakapong

    2017-01-01

    Readmission is an indicator of quality of inpatient care. A study from Hong Kong found readmission mortality rate to be 5.1%. There are limited reports on risk factors for mortality other than co-morbid diseases in readmission patients. This study, thus, aims to evaluate risk factors for mortality during readmission. This study was conducted at a university hospital in Thailand. The inclusion criteria were patients aged ≥15 years and readmission to internal medicine wards within 28 days after discharge. The outcome of the study was death during readmission. Risk factors for readmission mortality were analyzed using multivariate logistic regression analysis. There were 10,389 admissions to the Department of Medicine, Khon Kaen University, of which 407 required readmission (3.90%). Of those patients, 75 (18.43%) died during readmission. There were 6 independent factors associated with death in patients who were readmitted, including advanced age (>60 years), presence of more than 2 co-morbid diseases, admission duration of >14 days, fever at previous discharge, low hemoglobin (readmission duration, presence of low hemoglobin at previous discharge, and numbers of procedures at readmission were significantly associated with increased mortality risk for readmission patients.

  18. Social relationships and mortality risk: a meta-analytic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holt-Lunstad, Julianne; Smith, Timothy B; Layton, J Bradley

    2010-07-27

    The quality and quantity of individuals' social relationships has been linked not only to mental health but also to both morbidity and mortality. This meta-analytic review was conducted to determine the extent to which social relationships influence risk for mortality, which aspects of social relationships are most highly predictive, and which factors may moderate the risk. Data were extracted on several participant characteristics, including cause of mortality, initial health status, and pre-existing health conditions, as well as on study characteristics, including length of follow-up and type of assessment of social relationships. Across 148 studies (308,849 participants), the random effects weighted average effect size was OR = 1.50 (95% CI 1.42 to 1.59), indicating a 50% increased likelihood of survival for participants with stronger social relationships. This finding remained consistent across age, sex, initial health status, cause of death, and follow-up period. Significant differences were found across the type of social measurement evaluated (psocial relationships on risk for mortality is comparable with well-established risk factors for mortality. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

  19. Breastfeeding and the risk for diarrhea morbidity and mortality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Victora Cesar

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Lack of exclusive breastfeeding among infants 0-5 months of age and no breastfeeding among children 6-23 months of age are associated with increased diarrhea morbidity and mortality in developing countries. We estimate the protective effects conferred by varying levels of breastfeeding exposure against diarrhea incidence, diarrhea prevalence, diarrhea mortality, all-cause mortality, and hospitalization for diarrhea illness. Methods We systematically reviewed all literature published from 1980 to 2009 assessing levels of suboptimal breastfeeding as a risk factor for selected diarrhea morbidity and mortality outcomes. We conducted random effects meta-analyses to generate pooled relative risks by outcome and age category. Results We found a large body of evidence for the protective effects of breastfeeding against diarrhea incidence, prevalence, hospitalizations, diarrhea mortality, and all-cause mortality. The results of random effects meta-analyses of eighteen included studies indicated varying degrees of protection across levels of breastfeeding exposure with the greatest protection conferred by exclusive breastfeeding among infants 0-5 months of age and by any breastfeeding among infants and young children 6-23 months of age. Specifically, not breastfeeding resulted in an excess risk of diarrhea mortality in comparison to exclusive breastfeeding among infants 0-5 months of age (RR: 10.52 and to any breastfeeding among children aged 6-23 months (RR: 2.18. Conclusions Our findings support the current WHO recommendation for exclusive breastfeeding during the first 6 months of life as a key child survival intervention. Our findings also highlight the importance of breastfeeding to protect against diarrhea-specific morbidity and mortality throughout the first 2 years of life.

  20. Malnutrition, Subsequent Risk of Mortality and Civil War in Burundi

    OpenAIRE

    Philip Verwimp

    2011-01-01

    The paper investigates the effect of child malnutrition on the risk of mortality in Burundi, a very poor country heavily affected by civil war. We use anthropometric data from a longitudinal survey (1998-2007). We find that undernourished children, as measured by the height-for-age z-scores (HAZ) in 1998 had a higher probability to die during subsequent years. In order to address the problem of omitted variables correlated with both nutritional status and the risk of mortality, we use the len...

  1. Experimental evidence against the paradigm of mortality risk aversion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rheinberger, Christoph M

    2010-04-01

    This article deals with the question of how societal impacts of fatal accidents can be integrated into the management of natural or man-made hazards. Today, many governmental agencies give additional weight to the number of potential fatalities in their risk assessments to reflect society's aversion to large accidents. Although mortality risk aversion has been proposed in numerous risk management guidelines, there has been no evidence that lay people want public decisionmakers to overweight infrequent accidents of large societal consequences against more frequent ones of smaller societal consequences. Furthermore, it is not known whether public decisionmakers actually do such overweighting when they decide upon the mitigation of natural or technical hazards. In this article, we report on two experimental tasks that required participants to evaluate negative prospects involving 1-100 potential fatalities. Our results show that neither lay people nor hazard experts exhibit risk-averse behavior in decisions on mortality risks.

  2. Risk factors for mortality in children with abusive head trauma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shein, Steven L; Bell, Michael J; Kochanek, Patrick M; Tyler-Kabara, Elizabeth C; Wisniewski, Stephen R; Feldman, Kenneth; Makoroff, Kathi; Scribano, Philip V; Berger, Rachel P

    2012-10-01

    We sought to identify risk factors for mortality in a large clinical cohort of children with abusive head trauma. Bivariate analysis and multivariable logistic regression models identified demographic, physical examination, and radiologic findings associated with in-hospital mortality of children with abusive head trauma at 4 pediatric centers. An initial Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) ≤ 8 defined severe abusive head trauma. Data are shown as OR (95% CI). Analysis included 386 children with abusive head trauma. Multivariable analysis showed children with initial GCS either 3 or 4-5 had increased mortality vs children with GCS 12-15 (OR = 57.8; 95% CI, 12.1-277.6 and OR = 15.6; 95% CI, 2.6-95.1, respectively, P < .001). Additionally, retinal hemorrhage (RH), intraparenchymal hemorrhage, and cerebral edema were independently associated with mortality. In the subgroup with severe abusive head trauma and RH (n = 117), cerebral edema and initial GCS of 3 or 4-5 were independently associated with mortality. Chronic subdural hematoma was independently associated with survival. Low initial GCS score, RH, intraparenchymal hemorrhage, and cerebral edema are independently associated with mortality in abusive head trauma. Knowledge of these risk factors may enable researchers and clinicians to improve the care of these vulnerable children. Copyright © 2012 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Mortality Risk for Women on Chronic Hemodialysis Differs by Age

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manish M Sood

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Background: Previous reports have demonstrated similar survival for men and women on hemodialysis, despite women's increased survival in the general population. Objectives: To examine the effect of age on mortality in women undergoing chronic hemodialysis. Design: A retrospective cohort study using an administrative data registry, the Canadian Organ Replacement Registry (CORR from Jan. 2001 and Dec. 2009. Setting: Canada. Patients: 28,971 (Women 11,792 (40.7%, Men 17,179 (59.3% incident chronic hemodialysis patients who survived greater than 90 days on dialysis. Measurements: All-cause mortality. Methods: Cox proportional hazards and competing risks models were employed to determine the independent association between sex, age and likelihood of all-cause mortality with renal transplantation as the competing outcome. Results: During the study period, 6060 (51.4% of women and 8650 (50.4% of men initiating dialysis died. Younger women experienced higher mortality (Age 85: Women 66%, Men 70.2%, HR 0.83 95% CI 0.71–0.97 compared to men. This relationship persisted after accounting for the competing risk of transplantation. Limitations: The cause of death was unknown. Conclusions: Women's survival on chronic hemodialysis varies by age compared to men with a significantly higher mortality in women younger than 45 years old and lower mortality in woman older than 75 years of age.

  4. Suffering from Loneliness Indicates Significant Mortality Risk of Older People

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Reijo S. Tilvis

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. The harmful associates of suffering from loneliness are still in dispute. Objective. To examine the association of feelings of loneliness with all-cause mortality in a general aged population. Methods. A postal questionnaire was sent to randomly selected community-dwelling of elderly people (>74 years from the Finnish National Population Register. The questionnaire included demographic characteristics, living conditions, functioning, health, and need for help. Suffering from loneliness was assessed with one question and participants were categorized as lonely or not lonely. Total mortality was retrieved from the National Population Information System. Results. Of 3687 respondents, 39% suffered from loneliness. Lonely people were more likely to be deceased during the 57-month follow-up (31% than subjects not feeling lonely (23%, <.001. Excess mortality (HR=1.38, 95% CI=1.21-1.57 of lonely people increased over time. After controlling for age and gender, the mortality risk of the lonely individuals was 1.33 (95% CI=1.17-1.51 and after further controlling for subjective health 1.17 (CI=1.02-1.33. The excess mortality was consistent in all major subgroups. Conclusion. Suffering from loneliness is common and indicates significant mortality risk in old age.

  5. Depressive symptoms, physical inactivity and risk of cardiovascular mortality in older adults: the Cardiovascular Health Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Win, Sithu; Parakh, Kapil; Eze-Nliam, Chete M; Gottdiener, John S; Kop, Willem J

    2011-01-01

    Background Depressed older individuals have a higher mortality than older persons without depression. Depression is associated with physical inactivity, and low levels of physical activity have been shown in some cohorts to be a partial mediator of the relationship between depression and cardiovascular events and mortality. Methods A cohort of 5888 individuals (mean 72.8±5.6 years, 58% female, 16% African-American) from four US communities was followed for an average of 10.3 years. Self-reported depressive symptoms (10-item Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression Scale) were assessed annually and self-reported physical activity was assessed at baseline and at 3 and 7 years. To estimate how much of the increased risk of cardiovascular mortality associated with depressive symptoms was due to physical inactivity, Cox regression with time-varying covariates was used to determine the percentage change in the log HR of depressive symptoms for cardiovascular mortality after adding physical activity variables. Results At baseline, 20% of participants scored above the cut-off for depressive symptoms. There were 2915 deaths (49.8%), of which 1176 (20.1%) were from cardiovascular causes. Depressive symptoms and physical inactivity each independently increased the risk of cardiovascular mortality and were strongly associated with each other (all pphysical inactivity had greater cardiovascular mortality than those with either individually (pPhysical inactivity reduced the log HR of depressive symptoms for cardiovascular mortality by 26% after adjustment. This was similar for persons with (25%) and without (23%) established coronary heart disease. Conclusions Physical inactivity accounted for a significant proportion of the risk of cardiovascular mortality due to depressive symptoms in older adults, regardless of coronary heart disease status. PMID:21339320

  6. The joint contribution of neighborhood poverty and social integration to mortality risk in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marcus, Andrea Fleisch; Echeverria, Sandra E; Holland, Bart K; Abraido-Lanza, Ana F; Passannante, Marian R

    2016-04-01

    A well-established literature has shown that social integration strongly patterns health, including mortality risk. However, the extent to which living in high-poverty neighborhoods and having few social ties jointly pattern survival in the United States has not been examined. We analyzed data from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (1988-1994) linked to mortality follow-up through 2006 and census-based neighborhood poverty. We fit Cox proportional hazards models to estimate associations between social integration and neighborhood poverty on all-cause mortality as independent predictors and in joint-effects models using the relative excess risk due to interaction to test for interaction on an additive scale. In the joint-effects model adjusting for age, gender, race/ ethnicity, and individual-level socioeconomic status, exposure to low social integration alone was associated with increased mortality risk (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.42, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.28-1.59) while living in an area of high poverty alone did not have a significant effect (HR: 1.10; 95% CI: 0.95-1.28) when compared with being jointly unexposed. Individuals simultaneously living in neighborhoods characterized by high poverty and having low levels of social integration had an increased risk of mortality (HR: 1.63; 95% CI: 1.35-1.96). However, relative excess risk due to interaction results were not statistically significant. Social integration remains an important determinant of mortality risk in the United States independent of neighborhood poverty. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Postoperative mortality after inpatient surgery: Incidence and risk factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karamarie Fecho

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available Karamarie Fecho1, Anne T Lunney1, Philip G Boysen1, Peter Rock2, Edward A Norfleet11Department of Anesthesiology, School of Medicine, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC, USA; 2Department of Anesthesiology, University of Maryland, Baltimore, MD, USAPurpose: This study determined the incidence of and identified risk factors for 48 hour (h and 30 day (d postoperative mortality after inpatient operations.Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted using Anesthesiology’s Quality Indicator database as the main data source. The database was queried for data related to the surgical procedure, anesthetic care, perioperative adverse events, and birth/death/operation dates. The 48 h and 30 d cumulative incidence of postoperative mortality was calculated and data were analyzed using Chi-square or Fisher’s exact test and generalized estimating equations.Results: The 48 h and 30 d incidence of postoperative mortality was 0.57% and 2.1%, respectively. Higher American Society of Anesthesiologists physical status scores, extremes of age, emergencies, perioperative adverse events and postoperative Intensive Care Unit admission were identified as risk factors. The use of monitored anesthesia care or general anesthesia versus regional or combined anesthesia was a risk factor for 30 d postoperative mortality only. Time under anesthesia care, perioperative hypothermia, trauma, deliberate hypotension and invasive monitoring via arterial, pulmonary artery or cardiovascular catheters were not identified as risk factors.Conclusions: Our findings can be used to track postoperative mortality rates and to test preventative interventions at our institution and elsewhere.Keywords: postoperative mortality, risk factors, operations, anesthesia, inpatient surgery

  8. Relevance of the c-statistic when evaluating risk-adjustment models in surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merkow, Ryan P; Hall, Bruce L; Cohen, Mark E; Dimick, Justin B; Wang, Edward; Chow, Warren B; Ko, Clifford Y; Bilimoria, Karl Y

    2012-05-01

    The measurement of hospital quality based on outcomes requires risk adjustment. The c-statistic is a popular tool used to judge model performance, but can be limited, particularly when evaluating specific operations in focused populations. Our objectives were to examine the interpretation and relevance of the c-statistic when used in models with increasingly similar case mix and to consider an alternative perspective on model calibration based on a graphical depiction of model fit. From the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (2008-2009), patients were identified who underwent a general surgery procedure, and procedure groups were increasingly restricted: colorectal-all, colorectal-elective cases only, and colorectal-elective cancer cases only. Mortality and serious morbidity outcomes were evaluated using logistic regression-based risk adjustment, and model c-statistics and calibration curves were used to compare model performance. During the study period, 323,427 general, 47,605 colorectal-all, 39,860 colorectal-elective, and 21,680 colorectal cancer patients were studied. Mortality ranged from 1.0% in general surgery to 4.1% in the colorectal-all group, and serious morbidity ranged from 3.9% in general surgery to 12.4% in the colorectal-all procedural group. As case mix was restricted, c-statistics progressively declined from the general to the colorectal cancer surgery cohorts for both mortality and serious morbidity (mortality: 0.949 to 0.866; serious morbidity: 0.861 to 0.668). Calibration was evaluated graphically by examining predicted vs observed number of events over risk deciles. For both mortality and serious morbidity, there was no qualitative difference in calibration identified between the procedure groups. In the present study, we demonstrate how the c-statistic can become less informative and, in certain circumstances, can lead to incorrect model-based conclusions, as case mix is restricted and patients become

  9. Stroke Prevalence, Mortality and Disability-Adjusted Life Years in Adults Aged 20-64 Years in 1990-2013

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krishnamurthi, Rita V; Moran, Andrew E; Feigin, Valery L

    2015-01-01

    in younger adults. OBJECTIVES: This study aims to estimate prevalence, mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and their trends for total, ischemic stroke (IS) and hemorrhagic stroke (HS) in the world for 1990-2013 in adults aged 20-64 years. METHODOLOGY: Stroke prevalence, mortality and DALYs......BACKGROUND: Recent evidence suggests that stroke is increasing as a cause of morbidity and mortality in younger adults, where it carries particular significance for working individuals. Accurate and up-to-date estimates of stroke burden are important for planning stroke prevention and management...... were estimated using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2013 methods. All available data on rates of stroke incidence, excess mortality, prevalence and death were collected. Statistical models were used along with country-level covariates to estimate country-specific stroke burden. Stroke...

  10. Risk and mortality of traumatic brain injury in stroke patients: two nationwide cohort studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chou, Yi-Chun; Yeh, Chun-Chieh; Hu, Chaur-Jong; Meng, Nai-Hsin; Chiu, Wen-Ta; Chou, Wan-Hsin; Chen, Ta-Liang; Liao, Chien-Chang

    2014-01-01

    Patients with stroke had higher incidence of falls and hip fractures. However, the risk of traumatic brain injury (TBI) and post-TBI mortality in patients with stroke was not well defined. Our study is to investigate the risk of TBI and post-TBI mortality in patients with stroke. Using reimbursement claims from Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database, we conducted a retrospective cohort study of 7622 patients with stroke and 30 488 participants without stroke aged 20 years and older as reference group. Data were collected on newly developed TBI after stroke with 5 to 8 years' follow-up during 2000 to 2008. Another nested cohort study including 7034 hospitalized patients with TBI was also conducted to analyze the contribution of stroke to post-TBI in-hospital mortality. Compared with the nonstroke cohort, the adjusted hazard ratio of TBI risk among patients with stroke was 2.80 (95% confidence interval = 2.58-3.04) during the follow-up period. Patients with stroke had higher mortality after TBI than those without stroke (10.2% vs 3.2%, P stroke (RR = 1.60), hemorrhagic stroke (RR = 1.68), high medical expenditure for stroke (RR = 1.80), epilepsy (RR = 1.79), neurosurgery (RR = 1.94), and hip fracture (RR = 2.11) were all associated with significantly higher post-TBI mortality among patients with stroke. Patients with stroke have an increased risk of TBI and in-hospital mortality after TBI. Various characteristics of stroke severity were all associated with higher post-TBI mortality. Special attention is needed to prevent TBI among these populations.

  11. Risk-adjusted payment and performance assessment for primary care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ash, Arlene S; Ellis, Randall P

    2012-08-01

    Many wish to change incentives for primary care practices through bundled population-based payments and substantial performance feedback and bonus payments. Recognizing patient differences in costs and outcomes is crucial, but customized risk adjustment for such purposes is underdeveloped. Using MarketScan's claims-based data on 17.4 million commercially insured lives, we modeled bundled payment to support expected primary care activity levels (PCAL) and 9 patient outcomes for performance assessment. We evaluated models using 457,000 people assigned to 436 primary care physician panels, and among 13,000 people in a distinct multipayer medical home implementation with commercially insured, Medicare, and Medicaid patients. Each outcome is separately predicted from age, sex, and diagnoses. We define the PCAL outcome as a subset of all costs that proxies the bundled payment needed for comprehensive primary care. Other expected outcomes are used to establish targets against which actual performance can be fairly judged. We evaluate model performance using R(2)'s at patient and practice levels, and within policy-relevant subgroups. The PCAL model explains 67% of variation in its outcome, performing well across diverse patient ages, payers, plan types, and provider specialties; it explains 72% of practice-level variation. In 9 performance measures, the outcome-specific models explain 17%-86% of variation at the practice level, often substantially outperforming a generic score like the one used for full capitation payments in Medicare: for example, with grouped R(2)'s of 47% versus 5% for predicting "prescriptions for antibiotics of concern." Existing data can support the risk-adjusted bundled payment calculations and performance assessments needed to encourage desired transformations in primary care.

  12. Risk factors for mortality in patients with Serratia marcescens bacteremia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Sun Bean; Jeon, Yong Duk; Kim, Jung Ho; Kim, Jae Kyoung; Ann, Hea Won; Choi, Heun; Kim, Min Hyung; Song, Je Eun; Ahn, Jin Young; Jeong, Su Jin; Ku, Nam Su; Han, Sang Hoon; Choi, Jun Yong; Song, Young Goo; Kim, June Myung

    2015-03-01

    Over the last 30 years, Serratia marcescens (S. marcescens) has emerged as an important pathogen, and a common cause of nosocomial infections. The aim of this study was to identify risk factors associated with mortality in patients with S. marcescens bacteremia. We performed a retrospective cohort study of 98 patients who had one or more blood cultures positive for S. marcescens between January 2006 and December 2012 in a tertiary care hospital in Seoul, South Korea. Multiple risk factors were compared with association with 28-day all-cause mortality. The 28-day mortality was 22.4% (22/98 episodes). In a univariate analysis, the onset of bacteremia during the intensive care unit stay (p=0.020), serum albumin level (p=0.011), serum C-reactive protein level (p=0.041), presence of indwelling urinary catheter (p=0.023), and Sequential Oran Failure Assessment (SOFA) score at the onset of bacteremia (pmarcescens bacteremia.

  13. Long-term mortality risk in patients with an implantable cardioverter-defibrillator

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hoogwegt, Madelein T; Theuns, Dominic A M J; Pedersen, Susanne S.

    2014-01-01

    .9)). The impact of heart rate and QRS duration on time to all-cause mortality was separately assessed with Cox proportional hazard regression analysis, adjusting for clinical factors and symptoms of depression and anxiety. RESULTS: Mean (SD) heart rate was 68.0 ± 13.3 bpm and mean QRS duration was 130.9 ± 36.9 ms....... Heart rate of ≥80 bpm was associated with increased risk of mortality (HR=1.86; 95% CI=1.15-3.00; p=.011) in unadjusted analysis. In adjusted analyses, this relationship remained significant both with depression (HR=1.86, 95% CI=1.12-3.09; p=.017) and anxiety (HR=1.82, 95% CI=1.10-3.03; p=.021...

  14. Terminal illness and the increased mortality risk of conventional antipsychotics in observational studies: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luijendijk, Hendrika J; de Bruin, Niels C; Hulshof, Tessa A; Koolman, Xander

    2016-02-01

    Numerous large observational studies have shown an increased risk of mortality in elderly users of conventional antipsychotics. Health authorities have warned against use of these drugs. However, terminal illness is a potentially strong confounder of the observational findings. So, the objective of this study was to systematically assess whether terminal illness may have biased the observational association between conventional antipsychotics and risk of mortality in elderly patients. Studies were searched in PubMed, CINAHL, Embase, the references of selected studies and articles referring to selected studies (Web of Science). Inclusion criteria were (i) observational studies that estimated (ii) the risk of all-cause mortality in (iii) new elderly users of (iv) conventional antipsychotics compared with atypical antipsychotics or no use. Two investigators assessed the characteristics of the exposure and reference groups, main results, measured confounders and methods used to adjust for unmeasured confounders. We identified 21 studies. All studies were based on administrative medical and pharmaceutical databases. Sicker and older patients received conventional antipsychotics more often than new antipsychotics. The risk of dying was especially high in the first month of use, and when haloperidol was administered per injection or in high doses. Terminal illness was not measured in any study. Instrumental variables that were used were also confounded by terminal illness. We conclude that terminal illness has not been adjusted for in observational studies that reported an increased risk of mortality risk in elderly users of conventional antipsychotics. As the validity of the evidence is questionable, so is the warning based on it. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  15. Subclinical Hyperthyroidism and the Risk of Coronary Heart Disease and Mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collet, Tinh-Hai; Gussekloo, Jacobijn; Bauer, Douglas C.; den Elzen, Wendy P. J.; Cappola, Anne R.; Balmer, Philippe; Iervasi, Giorgio; Åsvold, Bjørn O.; Sgarbi, José A.; Völzke, Henry; Gencer, Bariş; Maciel, Rui M. B.; Molinaro, Sabrina; Bremner, Alexandra; Luben, Robert N.; Maisonneuve, Patrick; Cornuz, Jacques; Newman, Anne B.; Khaw, Kay-Tee; Westendorp, Rudi G. J.; Franklyn, Jayne A.; Vittinghoff, Eric; Walsh, John P.; Rodondi, Nicolas

    2013-01-01

    Background Data from prospective cohort studies regarding the association between subclinical hyperthyroidism and cardiovascular outcomes are conflicting. We aimed to assess the risks of total and coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality, CHD events, and atrial fibrillation (AF) associated with endogenous subclinical hyperthyroidism among all available large prospective cohorts. Methods Individual data on 52 674 participants were pooled from 10 cohorts. Coronary heart disease events were analyzed in 22 437 participants from 6 cohorts with available data, and incident AF was analyzed in 8711 participants from 5 cohorts. Euthyroidism was defined as thyrotropin level between 0.45 and 4.49 mIU/L and endogenous subclinical hyperthyroidism as thyrotropin level lower than 0.45 mIU/L with normal free thyroxine levels, after excluding those receiving thyroid-altering medications. Results Of 52 674 participants, 2188 (4.2%) had subclinical hyperthyroidism. During follow-up, 8527 participants died (including 1896 from CHD), 3653 of 22 437 had CHD events, and 785 of 8711 developed AF. In age-and sex-adjusted analyses, subclinical hyperthyroidism was associated with increased total mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 1.24, 95% CI, 1.06–1.46), CHD mortality (HR, 1.29; 95% CI, 1.02–1.62), CHD events (HR, 1.21; 95% CI, 0.99–1.46), and AF (HR, 1.68; 95% CI, 1.16–2.43). Risks did not differ significantly by age, sex, or preexisting cardiovascular disease and were similar after further adjustment for cardiovascular risk factors, with attributable risk of 14.5% for total mortality to 41.5% for AF in those with subclinical hyperthyroidism. Risks for CHD mortality and AF (but not other outcomes) were higher for thyrotropin level lower than 0.10 mIU/L compared with thyrotropin level between 0.10 and 0.44 mIU/L (for both, P value for trend, ≤.03). Conclusion Endogenous subclinical hyperthyroidism is associated with increased risks of total, CHD mortality, and incident AF, with highest

  16. Coffee consumption after myocardial infarction and risk of cardiovascular mortality

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dongen, Van Laura H.; Molenberg, Famke; Soedamah-Muthu, Sabita S.; Kromhout, Daan; Geleijnse, Johanna M.

    2017-01-01

    Background: Consumption of coffee, one of the most popular beverages around the world, has been associated with a lower risk of cardiovascular and all-cause mortality in population-based studies. However, little is known about these associations in patient populations. Objective: This prospective

  17. Mortality risks and limits to population growth of fishers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rick A. Sweitzer; Viorel D. Popescu; Craig M. Thompson; Kathryn L. Purcell; Reginald H. Barrett; Greta M. Wengert; Mourad W. Gabriel; Leslie W. Woods

    2015-01-01

    Fishers (Pekania pennanti) in the west coast states of Washington, Oregon, and California, USA have not recovered from population declines and the United States Fish and Wildlife Service has proposed options for listing them as threatened. Our objectives were to evaluate differences in survival and mortality risk from natural (e.g., predation, disease, injuries,...

  18. Causes and Risk Factors for Maternal Mortality in Rural Tanzania ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    AJRH Managing Editor

    , School of Public Health ... Keywords: Maternal death, maternal mortality, risk factors and developing country .... technique which encompasses use of educational ..... Farm. Workers. 0.70. 0.547. (0.213-2.267). Cannot work 2.67. 0.396. (0.277-.

  19. Consumption Behavior, Annuity Income and Mortality Risk of Retirees

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kutlu-Koc, Vesile; Alessie, Rob; Kalwij, Adriaan

    Previous empirical studies have found that individuals do not draw down their assets after retirement which is at odds with the predictions of a simple life cycle model without uncertainty. Hurd (Econometrica 57(4):779-813, 1989; Mortality risk and consumption by couples, 1999) explains such saving

  20. Short-term mortality risk of serum potassium levels in hypertension

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krogager, Maria Lukacs; Torp-Pedersen, Christian; Mortensen, Rikke Nørmark

    2017-01-01

    .0 mmol/L (hyperkalaemia). Outcome was 90-day mortality, estimated with multivariable Cox proportional hazard model, with the potassium interval of 4.1-4.4 mmol/L as reference. During 90-day follow-up, mortalities in the seven strata were 4.5, 2.7, 1.8, 1.5, 1.7, 2.7, and 3.6%, respectively. Adjusted risk...... for death was statistically significant for patients with hypokalaemia [hazard ratio (HR): 2.80, 95% confidence interval (95% CI): 2.17-3.62], and hyperkalaemia (HR: 1.70, 95% CI: 1.36-2.13). Notably, normal potassium levels were also associated with increased mortality: K: 3.5- 3.7 mmol/L (HR: 1.70, 95% CI...

  1. Clostridium Difficile Infection Due to Pneumonia Treatment: Mortality Risk Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chmielewska, M; Zycinska, K; Lenartowicz, B; Hadzik-Błaszczyk, M; Cieplak, M; Kur, Z; Wardyn, K A

    2017-01-01

    One of the most common gastrointestinal infection after the antibiotic treatment of community or nosocomial pneumonia is caused by the anaerobic spore Clostridium difficile (C. difficile). The aim of this study was to retrospectively assess mortality due to C. difficile infection (CDI) in patients treated for pneumonia. We identified 94 cases of post-pneumonia CDI out of the 217 patients with CDI. The mortality issue was addressed by creating a mortality risk models using logistic regression and multivariate fractional polynomial analysis. The patients' demographics, clinical features, and laboratory results were taken into consideration. To estimate the influence of the preceding respiratory infection, a pneumonia severity scale was included in the analysis. The analysis showed two statistically significant and clinically relevant mortality models. The model with the highest prognostic strength entailed age, leukocyte count, serum creatinine and urea concentration, hematocrit, coexisting neoplasia or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. In conclusion, we report on two prognostic models, based on clinically relevant factors, which can be of help in predicting mortality risk in C. difficile infection, secondary to the antibiotic treatment of pneumonia. These models could be useful in preventive tailoring of individual therapy.

  2. Sugars and risk of mortality in the NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study1234

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tasevska, Natasha; Park, Yikyung; Jiao, Li; Hollenbeck, Albert; Subar, Amy F; Potischman, Nancy

    2014-01-01

    Background: Although previous studies have linked intake of sugars with incidence of cancer and other chronic diseases, its association with mortality remains unknown. Objective: We investigated the association of total sugars, added sugars, total fructose, added fructose, sucrose, and added sucrose with the risk of all-cause, cardiovascular disease, cancer, and other-cause mortality in the NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study. Design: The participants (n = 353,751), aged 50–71 y, were followed for up to 13 y. Intake of individual sugars over the previous 12 mo was assessed at baseline by using a 124-item NIH Diet History Questionnaire. Results: In fully adjusted models (fifth quartile compared with first quartile), all-cause mortality was positively associated with the intake of total sugars [HR (95% CI): 1.13 (1.06, 1.20); P-trend sugars (P-trend = 0.04), sucrose (P-trend = 0.03), and added sucrose (P-trend = 0.006). Investigation of consumption of sugars by source showed that the positive association with mortality risk was confined only to sugars from beverages, whereas the inverse association was confined to sugars from solid foods. Conclusions: In this large prospective study, total fructose intake was weakly positively associated with all-cause mortality in both women and men, whereas added sugar, sucrose, and added sucrose intakes were inversely associated with other-cause mortality in men. In our analyses, intake of added sugars was not associated with an increased risk of mortality. The NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT00340015. PMID:24552754

  3. Sugars and risk of mortality in the NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tasevska, Natasha; Park, Yikyung; Jiao, Li; Hollenbeck, Albert; Subar, Amy F; Potischman, Nancy

    2014-05-01

    Although previous studies have linked intake of sugars with incidence of cancer and other chronic diseases, its association with mortality remains unknown. We investigated the association of total sugars, added sugars, total fructose, added fructose, sucrose, and added sucrose with the risk of all-cause, cardiovascular disease, cancer, and other-cause mortality in the NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study. The participants (n = 353,751), aged 50-71 y, were followed for up to 13 y. Intake of individual sugars over the previous 12 mo was assessed at baseline by using a 124-item NIH Diet History Questionnaire. In fully adjusted models (fifth quartile compared with first quartile), all-cause mortality was positively associated with the intake of total sugars [HR (95% CI): 1.13 (1.06, 1.20); P-trend sugars (P-trend = 0.04), sucrose (P-trend = 0.03), and added sucrose (P-trend = 0.006). Investigation of consumption of sugars by source showed that the positive association with mortality risk was confined only to sugars from beverages, whereas the inverse association was confined to sugars from solid foods. In this large prospective study, total fructose intake was weakly positively associated with all-cause mortality in both women and men, whereas added sugar, sucrose, and added sucrose intakes were inversely associated with other-cause mortality in men. In our analyses, intake of added sugars was not associated with an increased risk of mortality. The NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT00340015.

  4. Risk adjustment for case mix and the effect of surgeon volume on morbidity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maas, Matthew B; Jaff, Michael R; Rordorf, Guy A

    2013-06-01

    Retrospective studies of large administrative databases have shown higher mortality for procedures performed by low-volume surgeons, but the adequacy of risk adjustment in those studies is in doubt. To determine whether the relationship between surgeon volume and outcomes is an artifact of case mix using a prospective sample of carotid endarterectomy cases. Observational cohort study from January 1, 2008, through December 31, 2010, with preoperative, immediate postoperative, and 30-day postoperative assessments acquired by independent monitors. Urban, tertiary academic medical center. All 841 patients who underwent carotid endarterectomy performed by a vascular surgeon or cerebrovascular neurosurgeon at the institution. Carotid endarterectomy without another concurrent surgery. Stroke, death, and other surgical complications occurring within 30 days of surgery along with other case data. A low-volume surgeon performed 40 or fewer cases per year. Variables used in a comparison administrative database study, as well as variables identified by our univariate analysis, were used for adjusted analyses to assess for an association between low-volume surgeons and the rate of stroke and death as well as other complications. RESULTS The rate of stroke and death was 6.9% for low-volume surgeons and 2.0% for high-volume surgeons (P = .001). Complications were similarly higher (13.4% vs 7.2%, P = .008). Low-volume surgeons performed more nonelective cases. Low-volume surgeons were significantly associated with stroke and death in the unadjusted analysis as well as after adjustment with variables used in the administrative database study (odds ratio, 3.61; 95% CI, 1.70-7.67, and odds ratio, 3.68; 95% CI, 1.72-7.89, respectively). However, adjusting for the significant disparity of American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status classification in case mix eliminated the effect of surgeon volume on the rate of stroke and death (odds ratio, 1.65; 95% CI, 0.59-4.64) and other

  5. Sleep duration and risk of stroke mortality among Chinese adults: Singapore Chinese health study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, An; De Silva, Deidre Anne; Yuan, Jian-Min; Koh, Woon-Puay

    2014-06-01

    Prospective relation between sleep duration and stroke risk is less studied, particularly in Asians. We examined the association between sleep duration and stroke mortality among Chinese adults. The Singapore Chinese Health Study is a population-based cohort of 63 257 Chinese adults aged 45 to 74 years enrolled during 1993 through 1998. Sleep duration at baseline was assessed via in-person interview, and death information during follow-up was ascertained via record linkage with the death registry up to December 31, 2011. Cox proportional hazard models were used to calculate hazard ratios with adjustment for other comorbidities and lifestyle risk factors of stroke mortality. During 926 752 person-years of follow-up, we documented 1381 stroke deaths (322 from hemorrhagic and 1059 from ischemic or nonspecified strokes). Compared with individuals with 7 hours per day of sleep, the multivariate-adjusted hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) of total stroke mortality was 1.25 (1.05-1.50) for ≤5 hours per day (short duration), 1.01 (0.87-1.18) for 6 hours per day, 1.09 (0.95-1.26) for 8 hours per day, and 1.54 (1.28-1.85) for ≥9 hours per day (long duration). The increased risk of stroke death with short (1.54; 1.16-2.03) and long durations of sleep (1.95; 1.48-2.57) was seen among subjects with a history of hypertension, but not in those without hypertension. These findings were limited to risk of death from ischemic or nonspecified stroke, but not observed for hemorrhagic stroke. Both short and long sleep durations are associated with increased risk of stroke mortality in a Chinese population, particularly among those with a history of hypertension. © 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.

  6. Sleep duration and risk of stroke mortality among Chinese adults: the Singapore Chinese Health Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, An; De Silva, Deidre Anne; Yuan, Jian-Min; Koh, Woon-Puay

    2014-01-01

    Background and Purpose Prospective relation between sleep duration and stroke risk is less studied, particularly in Asians. We examined the association between sleep duration and stroke mortality among Chinese adults. Methods The Singapore Chinese Health Study is a population-based cohort of 63,257 Chinese adults aged 45-74 years enrolled during 1993 through 1998. Sleep duration at baseline was assessed via in-person interview, and death information during follow-up was ascertained via record linkage with the death registry up to December 31, 2011. Cox proportional hazard models were used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) with adjustment for other comorbidities and lifestyle risk factors of stroke mortality. Results During 926,752 person-years of follow-up, we documented 1,381 stroke deaths (322 from hemorrhagic and 1,059 from ischemic or non-specified strokes). Compared to individuals with 7 hours/day of sleep, the multivariate-adjusted HR (95% confidence interval) of total stroke mortality was 1.25 (1.05-1.50) for ≤5 hours/day (short duration), 1.01 (0.87-1.18) for 6 hours/day, 1.09 (0.95-1.26) for 8 hours/day, and 1.54 (1.28-1.85) for ≥9 hours/day (long duration). The increased risk of stroke death with short (1.54; 1.16-2.03) and long duration of sleep (1.95; 1.48-2.57) was seen among subjects with a history of hypertension, but not in those without hypertension. These findings were limited to risk of death from ischemic or non-specified stroke, but not observed for hemorrhagic stroke. Conclusions Both short and long sleep durations are associated with increased risk of stroke mortality in a Chinese population, particularly among those with a history of hypertension. PMID:24743442

  7. Fibrosis-Related Biomarkers and Risk of Total and Cause-Specific Mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agarwal, Isha; Glazer, Nicole L.; Barasch, Eddy; Biggs, Mary L.; Djoussé, Luc; Fitzpatrick, Annette L.; Gottdiener, John S.; Ix, Joachim H.; Kizer, Jorge R.; Rimm, Eric B.; Siscovick, David S.; Tracy, Russell P.; Zieman, Susan J.; Mukamal, Kenneth J.

    2014-01-01

    Fibrosis has been implicated in diverse diseases of the liver, kidney, lungs, and heart, but its importance as a risk factor for mortality remains unconfirmed. We determined the prospective associations of 2 complementary biomarkers of fibrosis, transforming growth factor-β (TGF-β) and procollagen type III N-terminal propeptide (PIIINP), with total and cause-specific mortality risks among community-living older adults in the Cardiovascular Health Study (1996–2010). We measured circulating TGF-β and PIIINP levels in plasma samples collected in 1996 and ascertained the number of deaths through 2010. Both TGF-β and PIIINP were associated with elevated risks of total and pulmonary mortality after adjustment for sociodemographic, clinical, and biochemical risk factors. For total mortality, the hazard ratios per doubling of TGF-β and PIIINP were 1.09 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.01, 1.17; P = 0.02) and 1.14 (CI: 1.03, 1.27; P = 0.01), respectively. The corresponding hazard ratios for pulmonary mortality were 1.27 (CI: 1.01, 1.60; P = 0.04) for TGF-β and 1.52 (CI: 1.11, 2.10; P = 0.01) for PIIINP. Associations of TGF-β and PIIINP with total and pulmonary mortality were strongest among individuals with higher C-reactive protein concentrations (P for interaction < 0.05). Our findings provide some of the first large-scale prospective evidence that circulating biomarkers of fibrosis measured late in life are associated with death. PMID:24771724

  8. Where does distance matter? Distance to the closest maternity unit and risk of foetal and neonatal mortality in France.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pilkington, Hugo; Blondel, Béatrice; Drewniak, Nicolas; Zeitlin, Jennifer

    2014-12-01

    The number of maternity units has declined in France, raising concerns about the possible impact of increasing travel distances on perinatal health outcomes. We investigated impact of distance to closest maternity unit on perinatal mortality. Data from the French National Vital Statistics Registry were used to construct foetal and neonatal mortality rates over 2001-08 by distance from mother's municipality of residence and the closest municipality with a maternity unit. Data from French neonatal mortality certificates were used to compute neonatal death rates after out-of-hospital birth. Relative risks by distance were estimated, adjusting for individual and municipal-level characteristics. Seven percent of births occurred to women residing at ≥30 km from a maternity unit and 1% at ≥45 km. Foetal and neonatal mortality rates were highest for women living at maternity unit. For foetal mortality, rates increased at ≥45 km compared with 5-45 km. In adjusted models, long distance to a maternity unit had no impact on overall mortality but women living closer to a maternity unit had a higher risk of neonatal mortality. Neonatal deaths associated with out-of-hospital birth were rare but more frequent at longer distances. At the municipal-level, higher percentages of unemployment and foreign-born residents were associated with increased mortality. Overall mortality was not associated with living far from a maternity unit. Mortality was elevated in municipalities with social risk factors and located closest to a maternity unit, reflecting the location of maternity units in deprived areas with risk factors for poor outcome. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association.

  9. Quantifying and Adjusting for Disease Misclassification Due to Loss to Follow-Up in Historical Cohort Mortality Studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura L. F. Scott

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this analysis was to quantify and adjust for disease misclassification from loss to follow-up in a historical cohort mortality study of workers where exposure was categorized as a multi-level variable. Disease classification parameters were defined using 2008 mortality data for the New Zealand population and the proportions of known deaths observed for the cohort. The probability distributions for each classification parameter were constructed to account for potential differences in mortality due to exposure status, gender, and ethnicity. Probabilistic uncertainty analysis (bias analysis, which uses Monte Carlo techniques, was then used to sample each parameter distribution 50,000 times, calculating adjusted odds ratios (ORDM-LTF that compared the mortality of workers with the highest cumulative exposure to those that were considered never-exposed. The geometric mean ORDM-LTF ranged between 1.65 (certainty interval (CI: 0.50–3.88 and 3.33 (CI: 1.21–10.48, and the geometric mean of the disease-misclassification error factor (eDM-LTF, which is the ratio of the observed odds ratio to the adjusted odds ratio, had a range of 0.91 (CI: 0.29–2.52 to 1.85 (CI: 0.78–6.07. Only when workers in the highest exposure category were more likely than those never-exposed to be misclassified as non-cases did the ORDM-LTF frequency distributions shift further away from the null. The application of uncertainty analysis to historical cohort mortality studies with multi-level exposures can provide valuable insight into the magnitude and direction of study error resulting from losses to follow-up.

  10. Risk of Cardiovascular Morbidity and Mortality in Relation to Temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathes, Robert; Ito, Kazuhiko; Matte, Thomas

    2013-01-01

    Objective To examine the effects of temperature on cardiovascular-related (CVD) morbidity and mortality among New York City (NYC) residents. Introduction Extreme temperatures are consistently shown to have an effect on CVD-related mortality [1, 2]. A large multi-city study of mortality demonstrated a cold-day and hot-day weather effect on CVD-related deaths, with the larger impact occurring on the coldest days [3]. In contrast, the association between weather and CVD-related morbidity is less clear [4, 5]. The purpose of this study is to characterize the effect of temperature on CVD-related emergency department (ED) visits, hospitalizations, and mortality on a large, heterogeneous population. Additionally, we conducted a sensitivity analysis to determine the impact of air pollutants, specifically fine particulates (PM2.5) and ozone (O3), along with temperature, on CVD outcomes. Methods We analyzed daily weather conditions, ED visits classified as CVD-related based on chief complaint text, hospitalizations, and natural cause deaths that occurred in NYC between 2002 and 2006. ED visits were obtained from data reported daily to the city health department for syndromic surveillance. Inpatient admissions were obtained from the Statewide Planning and Research Cooperative System, a data reporting system developed by New York State. Mortality data were obtained from the NYC Office of Vital Statistics. Data for PM2.5 and O3 were obtained from all available air quality monitors within the five boroughs of NYC. To estimate risk of CVD morbidity and mortality, we used generalized linear models using a Poisson distribution to calculate relative risks (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). A non-linear distributed lag was used to model mean temperature in order to allow for its effect on the same day and on subsequent days. Models were fit separately for cold season (October through March) and warm season (April through September) given season may modify the effect on CVD

  11. Risk factors for mortality among malnourished HIV-infected adults eligible for antiretroviral therapy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Woodd, Susannah L; Kelly, Paul; Koethe, John R

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: A substantial proportion of HIV-infected adults starting antiretroviral therapy (ART) in sub-Saharan Africa are malnourished. We aimed to increase understanding of the factors affecting their high mortality, particularly in the high-risk period before ART initiation. METHODS: We...... weeks of ART (66; 95 % CI 57, 76) and was not affected by trial study arm. In adjusted analyses, lower CD4 count, BMI and mid-arm circumference and raised C-reactive protein were associated with an increased risk of mortality throughout the study. Male sex and lower hand-grip strength carried...... deaths represent advanced HIV disease rather than treatment-related events. Therefore, more efforts are needed to promote earlier diagnosis and immediate initiation of ART, as recently recommended by WHO for all persons with HIV worldwide. The positive effect of tuberculosis treatment suggests...

  12. Use of quinine and mortality-risk in patients with heart failure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gjesing, Anne; Gislason, Gunnar H.; Christensen, Stefan B.

    2015-01-01

    included, with 14 510 patients (11%) using quinine at some point. During a median time of follow-up of 989 days (interquartile range 350-2004) 88 878 patients (66%) died. Patients receiving quinine had slightly increased mortality risk, adjusted incidence rate ratio (IRR) 1.04 (95% confidence interval [CI......PURPOSE: Leg cramps are common in patients with heart failure. Quinine is frequently prescribed in low doses to these patients, but safety of this practice is unknown. We studied the outcomes associated with use of quinine in a nationwide cohort of patients with heart failure. METHODS: Through...... individual-level-linkage of Danish national registries, we identified patients discharged from first-time hospitalization for heart failure in 1997-2010. We estimated the risk of mortality associated with quinine treatment by time-dependent Poisson regression models. RESULTS: A total of 135 529 patients were...

  13. Risk selection and risk adjustment: improving insurance in the individual and small group markets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baicker, Katherine; Dow, William H

    2009-01-01

    Insurance market reforms face the key challenge of addressing the threat that risk selection poses to the availability, of stable, high-value insurance policies that provide long-term risk protection. Many of the strategies in use today fail to address this breakdown in risk pooling, and some even exacerbate it. Flexible risk adjustment schemes are a promising avenue for promoting market stability and limiting insurer cream-skimming, potentially providing greater benefits at lower cost. Reforms intended to increase insurance coverage and the value of care delivered will be much more effective if implemented in conjunction with policies that address these fundamental selection issues.

  14. Using Hospitalization and Mortality Data to Identify Areas at Risk for Adolescent Suicide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Kun; Aseltine, Robert H

    2017-08-01

    The purpose of this study is to use statewide data on inpatient hospitalizations for suicide attempts and suicide mortality to identify communities and school districts at risk for adolescent suicide. Five years of data (2010-2014) from the Office of the Connecticut Medical Examiner and the Connecticut Hospital Inpatient Discharge Database were analyzed. A mixed-effects Poisson regression model was used to assess whether suicide attempt/mortality rates in the state's 119 school districts were significantly better or worse than expected after adjusting for 10 community-level characteristics. Ten districts were at significantly higher risk for suicidal behavior, with suicide mortality/hospitalization rates ranging from 154% to 241% of their expected rates, after accounting for their community characteristics. Four districts were identified as having significantly lower risk for suicide attempts than expected after accounting for community-level advantages and disadvantages. Data capturing hospitalization for suicide attempts and suicide deaths can inform prevention activities by identifying high-risk areas to which resources should be allocated, as well as low-risk areas that may provide insight into the best practices in suicide prevention. Copyright © 2017 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Health-Based Capitation Risk Adjustment in Minnesota Public Health Care Programs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gifford, Gregory A.; Edwards, Kevan R.; Knutson, David J.

    2004-01-01

    This article documents the history and implementation of health-based capitation risk adjustment in Minnesota public health care programs, and identifies key implementation issues. Capitation payments in these programs are risk adjusted using an historical, health plan risk score, based on concurrent risk assessment. Phased implementation of capitation risk adjustment for these programs began January 1, 2000. Minnesota's experience with capitation risk adjustment suggests that: (1) implementation can accelerate encounter data submission, (2) administrative decisions made during implementation can create issues that impact payment model performance, and (3) changes in diagnosis data management during implementation may require changes to the payment model. PMID:25372356

  16. Trajectories of body mass index among Canadian seniors and associated mortality risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Meng; Yi, Yanqing; Roebothan, Barbara; Colbourne, Jennifer; Maddalena, Victor; Sun, Guang; Wang, Peizhong Peter

    2017-12-04

    This study aims to characterize the heterogeneity in BMI trajectories and evaluate how different BMI trajectories predict mortality risk in Canadian seniors. Data came from the Canadian National Population Health Survey (NPHS, 1994-2011) and 1480 individuals aged 65-79 years with at least four BMI records were included in this study. Group-based trajectory model was used to identify distinct subgroups of longitudinal trajectories of BMI measured over 19 years for men and women. Cox proportional hazards models were used to examine the association between BMI trajectories and mortality risks. Distinct trajectory patterns were found for men and women: 'Normal Weight-Down'(N-D), 'Overweight-Normal weight' (OV-N), 'Obese I-Down' (OB I-D), and 'Obese II- Down' (OB II-D) for women; and 'Normal Weight-Down' (N-D), 'Overweight-Normal weight' (OV-N), 'Overweight-Stable' (OV-S), and 'Obese-Stable' (OB-S) for men. Comparing with OV-N, men in the OV-S group had the lowest mortality risk followed by the N-D (HR = 1.66) and OB-S (HR = 1.98) groups, after adjusting for covariates. Compared with OV-N, women in the OB II-D group with three or more chronic health conditions had higher mortality risk (HR = 1.61); however, women in OB II-D had lower risk (HR = 0.56) if they had less than three conditions. The course of BMI over time in Canadian seniors appears to follow one of four different patterns depending on gender. The findings suggest that men who were overweight at age 65 and lost weight over time had the lowest mortality risk. Interestingly, obese women with decreasing BMI have different mortality risks, depending on their chronic health conditions. The findings provide new insights concerning the associations between BMI and mortality risk.

  17. Individual survival curves comparing subjective and observed mortality risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bissonnette, Luc; Hurd, Michael D; Michaud, Pierre-Carl

    2017-12-01

    We compare individual survival curves constructed from objective (actual mortality) and elicited subjective information (probability of survival to a given target age). We develop a methodology to estimate jointly subjective and objective individual survival curves accounting for rounding on subjective reports of perceived survival. We make use of the long follow-up period in the Health and Retirement Study and the high quality of mortality data to estimate individual survival curves that feature both observed and unobserved heterogeneity. This allows us to compare objective and subjective estimates of remaining life expectancy for various groups and compare welfare effects of objective and subjective mortality risk using the life cycle model of consumption. We find that subjective and objective hazards are not the same. The median welfare loss from misperceptions of mortality risk when annuities are not available is 7% of current wealth at age 65 whereas more than 25% of respondents have losses larger than 60% of wealth. When annuities are available and exogenously given, the welfare loss is substantially lower. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  18. Socioeconomic status (SES) and childhood acute myeloid leukemia (AML) mortality risk: Analysis of SEER data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knoble, Naomi B; Alderfer, Melissa A; Hossain, Md Jobayer

    2016-10-01

    Socioeconomic status (SES) is a complex construct of multiple indicators, known to impact cancer outcomes, but has not been adequately examined among pediatric AML patients. This study aimed to identify the patterns of co-occurrence of multiple community-level SES indicators and to explore associations between various patterns of these indicators and pediatric AML mortality risk. A nationally representative US sample of 3651 pediatric AML patients, aged 0-19 years at diagnosis was drawn from 17 Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database registries created between 1973 and 2012. Factor analysis, cluster analysis, stratified univariable and multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used. Four SES factors accounting for 87% of the variance in SES indicators were identified: F1) economic/educational disadvantage, less immigration; F2) immigration-related features (foreign-born, language-isolation, crowding), less mobility; F3) housing instability; and, F4) absence of moving. F1 and F3 showed elevated risk of mortality, adjusted hazards ratios (aHR) (95% CI): 1.07(1.02-1.12) and 1.05(1.00-1.10), respectively. Seven SES-defined cluster groups were identified. Cluster 1 (low economic/educational disadvantage, few immigration-related features, and residential-stability) showed the minimum risk of mortality. Compared to Cluster 1, Cluster 3 (high economic/educational disadvantage, high-mobility) and Cluster 6 (moderately-high economic/educational disadvantages, housing-instability and immigration-related features) exhibited substantially greater risk of mortality, aHR(95% CI)=1.19(1.0-1.4) and 1.23 (1.1-1.5), respectively. Factors of correlated SES-indicators and their pattern-based groups demonstrated differential risks in the pediatric AML mortality indicating the need of special public-health attention in areas with economic-educational disadvantages, housing-instability and immigration-related features. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All

  19. Transient postoperative atrial fibrillation after abdominal aortic aneurysm repair increases mortality risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kothari, Anai N.; Halandras, Pegge M.; Drescher, Max; Blackwell, Robert H.; Graunke, Dawn M.; Kliethermes, Stephanie; Kuo, Paul C.; Cho, Jae S.

    2016-01-01

    Objective The purpose of this study was to determine whether new-onset transient postoperative atrial fibrillation (TPAF) affects mortality rates after abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair and to identify predictors for the development of TPAF. Methods Patients who underwent open aortic repair or endovascular aortic repair for a principal diagnosis AAA were retrospectively identified using the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project-State Inpatient Database (Florida) for 2007 to 2011 and monitored longitudinally for 1 year. Inpatient and 1-year mortality rates were compared between those with and without TPAF. TPAF was defined as new-onset atrial fibrillation that developed in the postoperative period and subsequently resolved in patients without a history of atrial fibrillation. Cox proportional hazards models, adjusted for age, gender, comorbidities, rupture status, and repair method, were used to assess 1-year survival. Predictive models were built with preoperative patient factors using Chi-squared Automatic Interaction Detector decision trees and externally validated on patients from California. Results A 3.7% incidence of TPAF was identified among 15,148 patients who underwent AAA repair. The overall mortality rate was 4.3%. The inpatient mortality rate was 12.3% in patients with TPAF vs 4.0% in those without TPAF. In the ruptured setting, the difference in mortality was similar between groups (33.7% vs 39.9%, P = .3). After controlling for age, gender, comorbid disease severity, urgency (ruptured vs nonruptured), and repair method, TPAF was associated with increased 1-year postoperative mortality (hazard ratio, 1.48; P predict an individual's probability of developing TPAF at the point of care. Conclusions The development of TPAF is associated with an increased risk of mortality in patients undergoing repair of nonruptured AAA. Predictive modeling can be used to identify those patients at highest risk for developing TPAF and guide interventions to improve

  20. Prostate cancer mortality reduction by prostate-specific antigen-based screening adjusted for nonattendance and contamination in the European Randomised Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roobol, Monique J; Kerkhof, Melissa; Schröder, Fritz H; Cuzick, Jack; Sasieni, Peter; Hakama, Matti; Stenman, Ulf Hakan; Ciatto, Stefano; Nelen, Vera; Kwiatkowski, Maciej; Lujan, Marcos; Lilja, Hans; Zappa, Marco; Denis, Louis; Recker, Franz; Berenguer, Antonio; Ruutu, Mirja; Kujala, Paula; Bangma, Chris H; Aus, Gunnar; Tammela, Teuvo L J; Villers, Arnauld; Rebillard, Xavier; Moss, Sue M; de Koning, Harry J; Hugosson, Jonas; Auvinen, Anssi

    2009-10-01

    Prostate-specific antigen (PSA) based screening for prostate cancer (PCa) has been shown to reduce prostate specific mortality by 20% in an intention to screen (ITS) analysis in a randomised trial (European Randomised Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer [ERSPC]). This effect may be diluted by nonattendance in men randomised to the screening arm and contamination in men randomised to the control arm. To assess the magnitude of the PCa-specific mortality reduction after adjustment for nonattendance and contamination. We analysed the occurrence of PCa deaths during an average follow-up of 9 yr in 162,243 men 55-69 yr of age randomised in seven participating centres of the ERSPC. Centres were also grouped according to the type of randomisation (ie, before or after informed written consent). Nonattendance was defined as nonattending the initial screening round in ERSPC. The estimate of contamination was based on PSA use in controls in ERSPC Rotterdam. Relative risks (RRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were compared between an ITS analysis and analyses adjusting for nonattendance and contamination using a statistical method developed for this purpose. In the ITS analysis, the RR of PCa death in men allocated to the intervention arm relative to the control arm was 0.80 (95% CI, 0.68-0.96). Adjustment for nonattendance resulted in a RR of 0.73 (95% CI, 0.58-0.93), and additional adjustment for contamination using two different estimates led to estimated reductions of 0.69 (95% CI, 0.51-0.92) to 0.71 (95% CI, 0.55-0.93), respectively. Contamination data were obtained through extrapolation of single-centre data. No heterogeneity was found between the groups of centres. PSA screening reduces the risk of dying of PCa by up to 31% in men actually screened. This benefit should be weighed against a degree of overdiagnosis and overtreatment inherent in PCa screening.

  1. Risk Factors for Mortality in Lower Intestinal Bleeding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strate, Lisa L.; Ayanian, John Z.; Kotler, Gregory; Syngal, Sapna

    2009-01-01

    Background and Aims Previous studies of Lower Intestinal Bleeding (LIB) have limited power to study mortality. We sought to identify characteristics associated with in-hospital mortality in a large cohort of patients with LIB. Methods We used the 2002 Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project (HCUP) Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS) to study a cross-sectional cohort of 227,022 hospitalized patients with discharge diagnoses indicating LIB. Predictors of mortality were identified using multiple logistic regression. Results In 2002, an estimated 8,737 patients with LIB (3.9%) died while hospitalized. Independent predictors of in-hospital mortality were age (age >70 vs. <50, odds ratio (OR) 4.91; 95% CI 2.45–9.87), intestinal ischemia (OR 3.47; 95% CI 2.57–4.68), comorbid illness (≥ 2 vs. 0 comorbidities, OR 3.00; 95% CI 2.25–3.98), bleeding while hospitalized for a separate process (OR 2.35; 95% CI 1.81–3.04), coagulation defects (OR 2.34; 95% CI 1.50–3.65), hypovolemia (OR 2.22; 95% CI 1.69–2.90), transfusion of packed red blood cells (OR 1.60; 95% CI 1.23–2.08), and male gender (OR 1.52; 95% CI 1.21–1.92). Colorectal polyps (OR 0.26, 95% CI 0.15–0.45), and hemorrhoids (OR 0.42; 95% CI 0.28–0.64) were associated with a lower risk of mortality, as was diagnostic testing for LIB when added to the multivariate model (OR 0.37, 95% CI 0.28–0.48; p<0.001). Hospital characteristics were not significantly related to mortality. Predictors of mortality were similar in an analysis restricted to patients with diverticular bleeding. Conclusions The all-cause in-hospital mortality rate in LIB is low (3.9%). Advanced age, intestinal ischemia and comorbid illness were the strongest predictors of mortality. PMID:18558513

  2. Individual testosterone decline and future mortality risk in men.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmboe, Stine A; Skakkebæk, Niels E; Juul, Anders; Scheike, Thomas; Jensen, Tina K; Linneberg, Allan; Thuesen, Betina H; Andersson, Anna-Maria

    2018-01-01

    Male aging is characterized by a decline in testosterone (TS) levels with a substantial variability between subjects. However, it is unclear whether differences in age-related changes in TS are associated with general health. We investigated associations between mortality and intra-individual changes in serum levels of total TS, SHBG, free TS and LH during a ten-year period with up to 18 years of registry follow-up. 1167 men aged 30-60 years participating in the Danish Monitoring Trends and Determinants of Cardiovascular Disease (MONICA1) study and who had a follow-up examination ten years later (MONICA10) were included. From MONICA10, the men were followed up to 18 years (mean: 15.2 years) based on the information from national mortality registries via their unique personal ID numbers. Cox proportional hazard models were used to investigate the association between intra-individual hormone changes and all-cause, CVD and cancer mortalities. A total of 421 men (36.1%) died during the follow-up period. Men with most pronounced decline in total TS (mortality risk compared to men within the 10th to 90th percentile (hazard ratio (HR): 1.60; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.08-2.36). No consistent associations were seen in cause-specific mortality analyses. Our study showed that higher mortality rates were seen among the men who had the most pronounced age-related decline in TS, independent of their baseline TS levels. © 2018 European Society of Endocrinology.

  3. Adjusted prognostic association of depression following myocardial infarction with mortality and cardiovascular events : individual patient data meta-analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meijer, Anna; Conradi, H. J.; Bos, E. H.; Anselmino, M.; Carney, R. M.; Denollet, J.; Doyle, F.; Freedland, K. E.; Grace, S. L.; Hosseini, S. H.; Lane, D. A.; Pilote, L.; Parakh, K.; Rafanelli, C.; Sato, H.; Steeds, R. P.; Welin, C.; de Jonge, P.

    BACKGROUND: The association between depression after myocardial infarction and increased risk of mortality and cardiac morbidity may be due to cardiac disease severity. AIMS: To combine original data from studies on the association between post-infarction depression and prognosis into one database,

  4. The Folate-Vitamin B12 Interaction, Low Hemoglobin, and the Mortality Risk from Alzheimer's Disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Min, Jin-Young; Min, Kyoung-Bok

    2016-03-21

    Abnormal hemoglobin levels are a risk factor for Alzheimer's disease (AD). Although the mechanism underlying these associations is elusive, inadequate micronutrients, particularly folate and vitamin B12, may increase the risk for anemia, cognitive impairment, and AD. In this study, we investigated whether the nutritional status of folate and vitamin B12 is involved in the association between low hemoglobin levels and the risk of AD mortality. Data were obtained from the 1999-2006 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) and the NHANES (1999-2006) Linked Mortality File. A total of 4,688 participants aged ≥60 years with available baseline data were included in this study. We categorized three groups based on the quartiles of folate and vitamin B12 as follows: Group I (low folate and vitamin B12); Group II (high folate and low vitamin B12 or low folate and high vitamin B12); and Group III (high folate and vitamin B12). Of 4,688 participants, 49 subjects died due to AD. After adjusting for age, sex, ethnicity, education, smoking history, body mass index, the presence of diabetes or hypertension, and dietary intake of iron, significant increases in the AD mortality were observed in Quartile1 for hemoglobin (HR: 8.4, 95% CI: 1.4-50.8), and the overall risk of AD mortality was significantly reduced with increases in the quartile of hemoglobin (p for trend = 0.0200), in subjects with low levels of both folate and vitamin B12 at baseline. This association did not exist in subjects with at least one high level of folate and vitamin B12. Our finding shows the relationship between folate and vitamin B12 levels with respect to the association between hemoglobin levels and AD mortality.

  5. Lipid profile, cardiovascular disease and mortality in a Mediterranean high-risk population: The ESCARVAL-RISK study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orozco-Beltran, Domingo; Gil-Guillen, Vicente F; Redon, Josep; Martin-Moreno, Jose M; Pallares-Carratala, Vicente; Navarro-Perez, Jorge; Valls-Roca, Francisco; Sanchis-Domenech, Carlos; Fernandez-Gimenez, Antonio; Perez-Navarro, Ana; Bertomeu-Martinez, Vicente; Bertomeu-Gonzalez, Vicente; Cordero, Alberto; Pascual de la Torre, Manuel; Trillo, Jose L; Carratala-Munuera, Concepcion; Pita-Fernandez, Salvador; Uso, Ruth; Durazo-Arvizu, Ramon; Cooper, Richard; Sanz, Gines; Castellano, Jose M; Ascaso, Juan F; Carmena, Rafael; Tellez-Plaza, Maria

    2017-01-01

    The potential impact of targeting different components of an adverse lipid profile in populations with multiple cardiovascular risk factors is not completely clear. This study aims to assess the association between different components of the standard lipid profile with all-cause mortality and hospitalization due to cardiovascular events in a high-risk population. This prospective registry included high risk adults over 30 years old free of cardiovascular disease (2008-2012). Diagnosis of hypertension, dyslipidemia or diabetes mellitus was inclusion criterion. Lipid biomarkers were evaluated. Primary endpoints were all-cause mortality and hospital admission due to coronary heart disease or stroke. We estimated adjusted rate ratios (aRR), absolute risk differences and population attributable risk associated with adverse lipid profiles. 51,462 subjects were included with a mean age of 62.6 years (47.6% men). During an average follow-up of 3.2 years, 919 deaths, 1666 hospitalizations for coronary heart disease and 1510 hospitalizations for stroke were recorded. The parameters that showed an increased rate for total mortality, coronary heart disease and stroke hospitalization were, respectively, low HDL-Cholesterol: aRR 1.25, 1.29 and 1.23; high Total/HDL-Cholesterol: aRR 1.22, 1.38 and 1.25; and high Triglycerides/HDL-Cholesterol: aRR 1.21, 1.30, 1.09. The parameters that showed highest population attributable risk (%) were, respectively, low HDL-Cholesterol: 7.70, 11.42, 8.40; high Total/HDL-Cholesterol: 6.55, 12.47, 8.73; and high Triglycerides/HDL-Cholesterol: 8.94, 15.09, 6.92. In a population with cardiovascular risk factors, HDL-cholesterol, Total/HDL-cholesterol and triglycerides/HDL-cholesterol ratios were associated with a higher population attributable risk for cardiovascular disease compared to other common biomarkers.

  6. Trends in birth weight-specific and -adjusted infant mortality rates in Taiwan between 2004 and 2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Fu-Wen; Chou, Hung-Chieh; Chiou, Shu-Ti; Chen, Li-Hua; Wu, Mei-Hwan; Lue, Hung-Chi; Chiang, Tung-Liang; Lu, Tsung-Hsueh

    2018-06-01

    A yearly increase in the proportion of very low birth weight (VLBW) live births has resulted in the slowdown of decreasing trends in crude infant mortality rates (IMRs). In this study, we examined the trends in birth weight-specific as well as birth weight-adjusted IMRs in Taiwan. We linked three nationwide datasets, namely the National Birth Reporting Database, National Birth Certification Registry, and National Death Certification Registry databases, to calculate the IMRs according to the birth weight category. Trend tests and mortality rate ratios in the periods 2010-2011 and 2004-2005 were used to examine the extent of reduction in birth weight-specific and birth weight-adjusted IMRs. The proportion of VLBW (births increased from 0.78% in 2004-2005 to 0.89% in 2010-2011, thus exhibiting a 15% increase. The extents of the decreases in birth weight-specific IMRs in the 500-999, 1000-1499, 1500-1999, 2000-2499, and 2500-2999 g birth weight categories were 15%, 33%, 43%, 30%, and 28%, respectively, from 2004-2005 to 2010-2011. The reduction in IMR in each birth weight category was larger than the reduction in the crude IMR (13%). By contrast, the IMR in the birth weight category exhibited a 56% increase during the study period. The IMRs were calculated by excluding all live births with a birth weight of birth weight-adjusted IMRs, which were calculated using a standard birth weight distribution structure for adjustment, exhibited similar extent reductions. In countries with an increasing proportion of VLBW live births, birth weight-specific or -adjusted IMRs are more appropriate than other indices for accurately assessing the real extent of reduction in IMRs. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  7. Direct risk standardisation: a new method for comparing casemix adjusted event rates using complex models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholl, Jon; Jacques, Richard M; Campbell, Michael J

    2013-10-29

    Comparison of outcomes between populations or centres may be confounded by any casemix differences and standardisation is carried out to avoid this. However, when the casemix adjustment models are large and complex, direct standardisation has been described as "practically impossible", and indirect standardisation may lead to unfair comparisons. We propose a new method of directly standardising for risk rather than standardising for casemix which overcomes these problems. Using a casemix model which is the same model as would be used in indirect standardisation, the risk in individuals is estimated. Risk categories are defined, and event rates in each category for each centre to be compared are calculated. A weighted sum of the risk category specific event rates is then calculated. We have illustrated this method using data on 6 million admissions to 146 hospitals in England in 2007/8 and an existing model with over 5000 casemix combinations, and a second dataset of 18,668 adult emergency admissions to 9 centres in the UK and overseas and a published model with over 20,000 casemix combinations and a continuous covariate. Substantial differences between conventional directly casemix standardised rates and rates from direct risk standardisation (DRS) were found. Results based on DRS were very similar to Standardised Mortality Ratios (SMRs) obtained from indirect standardisation, with similar standard errors. Direct risk standardisation using our proposed method is as straightforward as using conventional direct or indirect standardisation, always enables fair comparisons of performance to be made, can use continuous casemix covariates, and was found in our examples to have similar standard errors to the SMR. It should be preferred when there is a risk that conventional direct or indirect standardisation will lead to unfair comparisons.

  8. Blood trihalomethane levels and the risk of total cancer mortality in US adults

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Min, Jin-Young; Min, Kyoung-Bok

    2016-01-01

    Background: Although animal data have suggested the carcinogenic activity of trihalomethanes (THMs), there is inconsistent evidence supporting the link between THM exposure and cancers in humans. Objectives: We investigated the association between specific and total blood THM levels with the risk of total cancer mortality in adults. Methods: We analyzed data from the 1999–2004 Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and the Linked Mortality File of the United States. A total of 933 adults (20–59 years of age) with available blood THM levels and no missing data for other variables were included. Four different THM species (chloroform, bromodichloromethane (BDCM), dibromochloromethane (DBCM) and bromoform) were included, and the codes associated with cancer (malignant neoplasm) were C00 through C97, based on the underlying causes of death listed in the International Classification of Disease 10the Revision. Results: Compared with adults in the lowest DBCM, bromoform, and total brominated THM tertiles, those in the highest DBCM, bromoform, and total brominated THM tertiles exhibited adjusted hazard ratios (HR) of total cancer mortality of 4.97 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.59–15.50), 4.94 (95% CI = 1.56–15.61), and 3.42 (95% CI = 1.21–15.43) respectively. The risk of total cancer mortality was not associated with increases in blood chloroform and total THM levels. Conclusions: We found that the baseline blood THM species, particularly brominated THMs, were significantly associated with total cancer mortality in adults. Although this study should be confirm by other studies, our findings suggest a possible link between THM exposures and cancer. - Highlights: • Trihalomethanes (THM) are classified as either probable or possible carcinogens. • Limited evidence on the link between THM and the incidence of cancer in humans. • We investigated the association between blood THM levels and the risk of total cancer mortality. • High

  9. A retrospective cohort study of shift work and risk of cancer-specific mortality in German male chemical workers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yong, Mei; Nasterlack, Michael; Messerer, Peter; Oberlinner, Christoph; Lang, Stefan

    2014-02-01

    Human evidence of carcinogenicity concerning shift work is inconsistent. In a previous study, we observed no elevated risk of total mortality in shift workers followed up until the end of 2006. The present study aimed to investigate cancer-specific mortality, relative to shift work. The cohort consisted of male production workers (14,038 shift work and 17,105 day work), employed at BASF Ludwigshafen for at least 1 year between 1995 and 2005. Vital status was followed from 2000 to 2009. Cause-specific mortality was obtained from death certificates. Exposure to shift work was measured both as a dichotomous and continuous variable. While lifetime job history was not available, job duration in the company was derived from personal data, which was then categorized at the quartiles. Cox proportional hazard model was used to adjust for potential confounders, in which job duration was treated as a time-dependent covariate. Between 2000 and 2009, there were 513 and 549 deaths among rotating shift and day work employees, respectively. Risks of total and cancer-specific mortalities were marginally lower among shift workers when taking age at entry and job level into consideration and were statistically significantly lower when cigarette smoking, alcohol intake, job duration, and chronic disease prevalence at entry to follow-up were included as explanatory factors. With respect to mortality risks in relation to exposure duration, no increased risks were found in any of the exposure groups after full adjustment and there was no apparent trend suggesting an exposure-response relation with duration of shift work. The present analysis extends and confirms our previous finding of no excess risk of mortality associated with work in the shift system employed at BASF Ludwigshafen. More specifically, there is also no indication of an increased risk of mortality due to cancer.

  10. Value of routine blood tests for prediction of mortality risk in hip fracture patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mosfeldt, Mathias; Pedersen, Ole Birger Vesterager; Riis, Troels

    2012-01-01

    There is a 5- to 8-fold increased risk of mortality during the first 3 months after a hip fracture. Several risk factors are known. We studied the predictive value (for mortality) of routine blood tests taken on admission.......There is a 5- to 8-fold increased risk of mortality during the first 3 months after a hip fracture. Several risk factors are known. We studied the predictive value (for mortality) of routine blood tests taken on admission....

  11. U-Shaped Association Between Serum Uric Acid Level and Risk of Mortality: A Cohort Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cho, Sung Kweon; Chang, Yoosoo; Kim, Inah; Ryu, Seungho

    2018-04-25

    In addition to the controversy regarding the association of hyperuricemia with cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality, few studies have examined the impact of a low uric acid level on mortality. We undertook the present study to evaluate the relationship between both low and high uric acid levels and the risk of all-cause and cause-specific mortality in a large sample of Korean adults over a full range of uric acid levels. A cohort study was performed in 375,163 South Korean men and women who underwent health check-ups from 2002 to 2012. Vital status and cause of death were ascertained from the national death records. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) for mortality outcomes were estimated using Cox proportional hazards regression analysis. During a total of 2,060,721.9 person-years of follow-up, 2,020 participants died, with 287 CVD deaths and 963 cancer deaths. Low and high uric acid levels were associated with increased all-cause, CVD, and cancer mortality. The multivariable-adjusted HRs for all-cause mortality in the lowest uric acid categories (uric acid categories (≥9.5 mg/dl for men and ≥8.5 mg/dl for women) were 2.39 (95% CI 1.57-3.66) and 3.77 (95% CI 1.17-12.17), respectively. In this large cohort study of men and women, both low and high uric acid levels were predictive of increased mortality, supporting a U-shaped association between serum uric acid levels and adverse health outcomes. © 2018, American College of Rheumatology.

  12. Adult mortality attributable to preventable risk factors for non-communicable diseases and injuries in Japan: a comparative risk assessment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nayu Ikeda

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The population of Japan has achieved the longest life expectancy in the world. To further improve population health, consistent and comparative evidence on mortality attributable to preventable risk factors is necessary for setting priorities for health policies and programs. Although several past studies have quantified the impact of individual risk factors in Japan, to our knowledge no study has assessed and compared the effects of multiple modifiable risk factors for non-communicable diseases and injuries using a standard framework. We estimated the effects of 16 risk factors on cause-specific deaths and life expectancy in Japan. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We obtained data on risk factor exposures from the National Health and Nutrition Survey and epidemiological studies, data on the number of cause-specific deaths from vital records adjusted for ill-defined codes, and data on relative risks from epidemiological studies and meta-analyses. We applied a comparative risk assessment framework to estimate effects of excess risks on deaths and life expectancy at age 40 y. In 2007, tobacco smoking and high blood pressure accounted for 129,000 deaths (95% CI: 115,000-154,000 and 104,000 deaths (95% CI: 86,000-119,000, respectively, followed by physical inactivity (52,000 deaths, 95% CI: 47,000-58,000, high blood glucose (34,000 deaths, 95% CI: 26,000-43,000, high dietary salt intake (34,000 deaths, 95% CI: 27,000-39,000, and alcohol use (31,000 deaths, 95% CI: 28,000-35,000. In recent decades, cancer mortality attributable to tobacco smoking has increased in the elderly, while stroke mortality attributable to high blood pressure has declined. Life expectancy at age 40 y in 2007 would have been extended by 1.4 y for both sexes (men, 95% CI: 1.3-1.6; women, 95% CI: 1.2-1.7 if exposures to multiple cardiovascular risk factors had been reduced to their optimal levels as determined by a theoretical-minimum-risk exposure distribution. CONCLUSIONS

  13. Risk factors and mortality for nosocomial bloodstream infections in elderly patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reunes, S; Rombaut, V; Vogelaers, D; Brusselaers, N; Lizy, C; Cankurtaran, M; Labeau, S; Petrovic, M; Blot, S

    2011-10-01

    To determine risk factors for nosocomial bloodstream infection (BSI) and associated mortality in geriatric patients in geriatric and internal medicine wards at a university hospital. Single-center retrospective (1992-2007), pairwise-matched (1:1-ratio) cohort study. Geriatric patients with nosocomial BSI were matched with controls without BSI on year of admission and length of hospitalization before onset of BSI. Demographic, microbiological, and clinical data are collected. One-hundred forty-two BSI occurred in 129 patients. Predominant microorganisms were Escherichia coli (23.2%), coagulase-negative Staphylococci (19.4%), Pseudomonas aeruginosa (8.4%), Staphylococcus aureus (7.1%), Klebsiella pneumoniae (5.8%) and Candida spp. (5.8%). Matching was successful for 109 cases. Compared to matched control subjects, cases were more frequently female, suffered more frequently from arthrosis, angina pectoris and pressure ulcers, had worse Activities of Daily Living-scores, had more often an intravenous or bladder catheter, and were more often bedridden. Logistic regression demonstrated presence of an intravenous catheter (odds ratio [OR] 7.5, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.5-22.9) and being bedridden (OR 2.9, 95% CI 1.6-5.3) as independent risk factors for BSI. In univariate analysis nosocomial BSI was associated with increased mortality (22.0% vs. 11.0%; P=0.029). After adjustment for confounding co-variates, however, nosocomial BSI was not associated with mortality (hazard ratio 1.3, 95% CI 0.6-2.6). Being bedridden and increasing age were independent risk factors for death. Intravenous catheters and being bedridden are the main risk factors for nosocomial BSI. Although associated with higher mortality, this infectious complication seems not to be an independent risk factor for death in geriatric patients. Copyright © 2011 European Federation of Internal Medicine. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Mortality risks in new-onset childhood epilepsy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berg, Anne T; Nickels, Katherine; Wirrell, Elaine C; Geerts, Ada T; Callenbach, Petra M C; Arts, Willem F; Rios, Christina; Camfield, Peter R; Camfield, Carol S

    2013-07-01

    Estimate the causes and risk of death, specifically seizure related, in children followed from onset of epilepsy and to contrast the risk of seizure-related death with other common causes of death in the population. Mortality experiences from 4 pediatric cohorts of newly diagnosed patients were combined. Causes of death were classified as seizure related (including sudden unexpected death [SUDEP]), natural causes, nonnatural causes, and unknown. Of 2239 subjects followed up for >30 000 person-years, 79 died. Ten subjects with lethal neurometabolic conditions were ultimately excluded. The overall death rate (per 100 000 person-years) was 228; 743 in complicated epilepsy (with associated neurodisability or underlying brain condition) and 36 in uncomplicated epilepsy. Thirteen deaths were seizure-related (10 SUDEP, 3 other), accounting for 19% of all deaths. Seizure-related death rates were 43 overall, 122 for complicated epilepsy, and 14 for uncomplicated epilepsy. Death rates from other natural causes were 159, 561, and 9, respectively. Of 48 deaths from other natural causes, 37 were due to pneumonia or other respiratory complications. Most excess death in young people with epilepsy is not seizure-related. Mortality is significantly higher compared with the general population in children with complicated epilepsy but not uncomplicated epilepsy. The SUDEP rate was similar to or higher than sudden infant death syndrome rates. In uncomplicated epilepsy, sudden and seizure-related death rates were similar to or higher than rates for other common causes of death in young people (eg, accidents, suicides, homicides). Relating the risk of death in epilepsy to familiar risks may facilitate discussions of seizure-related mortality with patients and families.

  15. 12 CFR 615.5210 - Risk-adjusted assets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... appropriate credit conversion factor in § 615.5212, is assigned to one of the risk categories specified in... risk-based capital requirement for the credit-enhanced assets, the risk-based capital required under..., determine the appropriate risk weight for any asset or credit equivalent amount that does not fit wholly...

  16. Dose-response relationship analysis for cancer and circulatory system disease mortality risks among uranium miners

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Drubay, Damien

    2015-01-01

    probability during the follow-up (e.g. SHRWismut-radon /100 WLM=1.012 [0.983; 1.042]). CSD mortality risk analyses in the French cohort showed a significant increase of the risks of mortality from CSD (n=442, CSHR/100 WLM=1.11 [1.01; 1.22]) and from Cerebrovascular Disease (MCeV, n=105, CSHR/100 WLM=1.25 [1.09; 1.43]) with radon exposure. A case-control study nested in the French cohort was set up to collect the information related to CSD risk factors (overweight, hypertension, diabetes...) from the medical records of 313 miners (76 deaths from CSD (including 26 from Ischemic Heart Disease (IHD) and 16 from MCeV) and 237 controls). For the three radiological exposures, the exposure-risk relation was analyzed in a pseudo-cohort (n=1,644 pseudo-individuals, obtained from the weighting of the observations by their inverse selection probability) with the Cox model, adjusted for the CSD risk factors. The association between the radiological exposure and the risk of mortality from CSD, IHD or MCeV was not significant (e.g. CSHRCSD-radon/100 WLM=1.43 [0.71; 2.87]). The adjustment for CSD risk factors did not substantially change the exposure-risk relation. The lack of a significant dose-response relation suggests that the excess of kidney cancer mortality among the French uranium miners may be induced by other risk factors, unavailable for this study. The small change of the coefficients observed after adjustment for CSD risk factors in the nested case-control study supports the assumption of the existence of the MCeV mortality risk increase associated with radon exposure in the French cohort of uranium miners. Future analyses based on further follow-up updates should allow to confirm or not these results. (author)

  17. Past Decline Versus Current eGFR and Subsequent Mortality Risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Naimark, David M. J.; Grams, Morgan E.; Matsushita, Kunihiro; Black, Corri; Drion, Iefke; Fox, Caroline S.; Inker, Lesley A.; Ishani, Areef; Jee, Sun Ha; Kitamura, Akihiko; Lea, Janice P.; Nally, Joseph; Peralta, Carmen Alicia; Rothenbacher, Dietrich; Ryu, Seungho; Tonelli, Marcello; Yatsuya, Hiroshi; Coresh, Josef; Gansevoort, Ron T.; Warnock, David G.; Woodward, Mark; de Jong, Paul E.

    A single determination of eGFR associates with subsequent mortality risk. Prior decline in eGFR indicates loss of kidney function, but the relationship to mortality risk is uncertain. We conducted an individual-level meta-analysis of the risk of mortality associated with antecedent eGFR slope,

  18. Digoxin use and risk of mortality in hypertensive patients with atrial fibrillation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Okin, Peter M; Hille, Darcy A; Wachtell, Kristian

    2015-01-01

    , diabetes, history of ischemic heart disease, stroke, or heart failure, baseline Cornell product, QRS duration, heart rate, serum glucose, creatinine and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and a propensity score for digoxin use entered as standard covariates, and for in-treatment heart rate, pulse...... patients with atrial fibrillation has not been examined. METHODS AND RESULTS: All-cause mortality was examined in relation to in-treatment digoxin use in 937 hypertensive patients with ECG left ventricular hypertrophy in atrial fibrillation at baseline (n = 134) or who developed atrial fibrillation during...... fibrillation, digoxin use is not associated with a significantly increased risk of all-cause mortality after adjusting for other independent predictors of death and for the factors associated with the propensity to use digoxin in this population. These findings suggest that factors other than digoxin use may...

  19. SSRI Use During Pregnancy and Risk of Stillbirth and Neonatal Mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jimenez-Solem, Espen; Andersen, Jon Trærup; Petersen, Morten

    2013-01-01

    OBJECTIVE The authors investigated whether in utero exposure to selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) increases the risk of stillbirth or neonatal mortality. METHOD The authors conducted a population-based cohort study using the Danish Fertility Database to identify every birth in Denmark...... between 1995 and 2008. Time of exposure to SSRIs was calculated on the basis of standard treatment dosages and dispensed pack sizes according to the prescription register. Exposure was divided into first-, second-, and third-trimester exposure. Multivariate logistic regression models were used. RESULTS...... The authors identified 920,620 births; the incidence of stillbirths was 0.45%, and the incidence of neonatal mortality was 0.34%. A total of 12,425 offspring were exposed to an SSRI during pregnancy. Stillbirth was not associated with first-trimester SSRI use (adjusted odds ratio=0.77, 95% CI=0...

  20. Recipient Age and Mortality Risk after Liver Transplantation: A Population-Based Cohort Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Hsiu-Pin; Tsai, Yung-Fong; Lin, Jr-Rung; Liu, Fu-Chao; Yu, Huang-Ping

    2016-01-01

    The aim of the present large population-based cohort study is to explore the risk factors of age-related mortality in liver transplant recipients in Taiwan. Basic information and data on medical comorbidities for 2938 patients who received liver transplants between July 1, 1998, and December 31, 2012, were extracted from the National Health Insurance Research Database on the basis of ICD-9-codes. Mortality risks were analyzed after adjusting for preoperative comorbidities and compared among age cohorts. All patients were followed up until the study endpoint or death. This study finally included 2588 adults and 350 children [2068 (70.4%) male and 870 (29.6%) female patients]. The median age at transplantation was 52 (interquartile range, 43-58) years. Recipients were categorized into the following age cohorts: recipients (≥60 years), especially dialysis patients, have a higher mortality rate, possibly because they have more medical comorbidities. Our findings should make clinicians aware of the need for better risk stratification among elderly liver transplantation candidates.

  1. New ventures require accurate risk analyses and adjustments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eastaugh, S R

    2000-01-01

    For new business ventures to succeed, healthcare executives need to conduct robust risk analyses and develop new approaches to balance risk and return. Risk analysis involves examination of objective risks and harder-to-quantify subjective risks. Mathematical principles applied to investment portfolios also can be applied to a portfolio of departments or strategic business units within an organization. The ideal business investment would have a high expected return and a low standard deviation. Nonetheless, both conservative and speculative strategies should be considered in determining an organization's optimal service line and helping the organization manage risk.

  2. Multivitamin use and risk of stroke mortality: the Japan collaborative cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Jia-Yi; Iso, Hiroyasu; Kitamura, Akihiko; Tamakoshi, Akiko

    2015-05-01

    An effect of multivitamin supplement on stroke risk is uncertain. We aimed to examine the association between multivitamin use and risk of death from stroke and its subtypes. A total of 72 180 Japanese men and women free from cardiovascular diseases and cancers at baseline in 1988 to 1990 were followed up until December 31, 2009. Lifestyles including multivitamin use were collected using self-administered questionnaires. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) of total stroke and its subtypes in relation to multivitamin use. During a median follow-up of 19.1 years, we identified 2087 deaths from stroke, including 1148 ischemic strokes and 877 hemorrhagic strokes. After adjustment for potential confounders, multivitamin use was associated with lower but borderline significant risk of death from total stroke (HR, 0.87; 95% confidence interval, 0.76-1.01), primarily ischemic stroke (HR, 0.80; 95% confidence interval, 0.63-1.01), but not hemorrhagic stroke (HR, 0.96; 95% confidence interval, 0.78-1.18). In a subgroup analysis, there was a significant association between multivitamin use and lower risk of mortality from total stroke among people with fruit and vegetable intake stroke. Multivitamin use, particularly frequent use, was associated with reduced risk of total and ischemic stroke mortality among Japanese people with lower intake of fruits and vegetables. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

  3. Mortality in patients with acute aortic dissection type A: analysis of pre- and intraoperative risk factors from the German Registry for Acute Aortic Dissection Type A (GERAADA).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conzelmann, Lars Oliver; Weigang, Ernst; Mehlhorn, Uwe; Abugameh, Ahmad; Hoffmann, Isabell; Blettner, Maria; Etz, Christian D; Czerny, Martin; Vahl, Christian F

    2016-02-01

    Acute aortic dissection type A (AADA) is an emergency with excessive mortality if surgery is delayed. Knowledge about independent predictors of mortality on surgically treated AADA patients is scarce. Therefore, this study was conducted to identify pre- and intraoperative risk factors for death. Between July 2006 and June 2010, 2137 surgically treated patients with AADA were enrolled in a multicentre, prospective German Registry for Acute Aortic Dissection type A (GERAADA), presenting perioperative status, operative strategies, postoperative outcomes and AADA-related risk factors for death. Multiple logistic regression analysis was performed to identify the influence of different parameters on 30-day mortality. Overall 30-day mortality (16.9%) increased with age [adjusted odds ratio (OR) = 1.121] and among patients who were comatose (adjusted OR = 3.501) or those who underwent cardiopulmonary resuscitation (adjusted OR = 3.751; all P risk for death was (adjusted OR for one organ = 1.651, two organs = 2.440, three organs or more = 3.393, P 0.1). No significant risk factors, but relevant increases in mortality, were determined in patients suffering from hemiparesis pre- and postoperatively (each P risk factors for death in AADA, influencing the outcome of surgically treated AADA patients. Comatose and resuscitated patients have the poorest outcome. Cannulation sites and operative techniques did not seem to affect mortality. Short operative times are associated with better outcomes. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery. All rights reserved.

  4. Do other cardiovascular risk factors influence the impact of age on the association between blood pressure and mortality?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vishram, Julie K K; Borglykke, Anders; Andreasen, Anne H

    2014-01-01

    Hg increase in SBP/DBP by multivariate-adjusted Cox regressions, including SBP and DBP simultaneously. Because of nonlinearity, SBP and DBP were analyzed separately for blood pressure (BP) values above and below a cut-point wherein mortality risk was the lowest. For the total population, significantly...... 82 mmHg [1.03 (1.02-1.05)]. BP values below the cut-points were inversely related to mortality risk. Taking into account the age × BP interaction, there was a gradual shift from DBP (19-26 years) to both DBP and SBP (27-62 years) and to SBP (63-78 years) as risk factors for stroke mortality and all...

  5. Competing Risk Approach (CRA) for Estimation of Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALY's) for Female Breast Cancer in India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kunnavil, Radhika; Thirthahalli, Chethana; Nooyi, Shalini Chandrashekar; Shivaraj, N S; Murthy, Nandagudi Srinivasa

    2015-10-01

    Competing Risk Approach (CRA) has been used to compute burden of disease in terms of Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) based on a life table for an initially disease-free cohort over time. To compute Years of Life Lost (YLL) due to premature mortality, Years of life lost due to Disability (YLD), DALYs and loss in expectation of life (LEL) using competing risk approach for female breast cancer patients for the year 2008 in India. The published data on breast cancer by age & sex, incidence & mortality for the year 2006-2008 relating to six population based cancer registries (PBCR) under Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR), general mortality rates of 2007 in India, published in national health profile 2010; based on Sample Registration System (SRS) were utilized for computations. Three life tables were constructed by applying attrition of factors: (i) risk of death from all causes ('a'; where a is the general death rate); (ii) risk of incidence and that of death from causes other than breast cancer ('b-a+c'; where 'b' is the incidence of breast cancer and 'c' is the mortality of breast cancer); and (iii) risk of death from all other causes after excluding cancer mortality ('a-c'). Taking the differences in Total Person Years Lived (TPYL), YLD and YLL were derived along with LEL. CRA revealed that the DALYs were 40209 per 100,000 females in the life time of 0-70+ years with a LEL of 0.11 years per person. Percentage of YLL to DALYs was 28.20% in the cohort. The method of calculation of DALYs based on the CRA is simple and this will help to identify the burden of diseases using minimal information in terms of YLL, YLD, DALYs and LEL.

  6. Health plans and selection: formal risk adjustment vs. market design and contracts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frank, R G; Rosenthal, M B

    2001-01-01

    In this paper, we explore the demand for risk adjustment by health plans that contract with private employers by considering the conditions under which plans might value risk adjustment. Three factors reduce the value of risk adjustment from the plans' point of view. First, only a relatively small segment of privately insured Americans face a choice of competing health plans. Second, health plans share much of their insurance risk with payers, providers, and reinsurers. Third, de facto experience rating that occurs during the premium negotiation process and management of coverage appear to substitute for risk adjustment. While the current environment has not generated much demand for risk adjustment, we reflect on its future potential.

  7. Poor decision making is associated with an increased risk of mortality among community-dwelling older persons without dementia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyle, Patricia A; Wilson, Robert S; Yu, Lei; Buchman, Aron S; Bennett, David A

    2013-01-01

    Decision making is thought to be an important determinant of health and well-being across the lifespan, but little is known about the association of decision making with mortality. Participants were 675 older persons without dementia from the Rush Memory and Aging Project, a longitudinal cohort study of aging. Baseline assessments of decision making were used to predict the risk of mortality during up to 4 years of follow-up. The mean score on the decision making measure at baseline was 7.1 (SD = 2.9, range: 0-12), with lower scores indicating poorer decision making. During up to 4 years of follow-up (mean = 1.7 years), 40 (6% of 675) persons died. In a proportional hazards model adjusted for age, sex and education, the risk of mortality increased by about 20% for each additional decision making error (HR = 1.19, 95% CI = 1.07-1.32, p = 0.002). Thus, a person who performed poorly on the measure of decision making (score = 3, 10th percentile) was about 4 times more likely to die compared to a person who performed well (score = 11, 90th percentile). Further, the association of decision making with mortality persisted after adjustment for the level of cognitive function. Poor decision making is associated with an increased risk of mortality in old age even after accounting for cognitive function. Copyright © 2013 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  8. Individual spatial responses towards roads: implications for mortality risk.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clara Grilo

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Understanding the ecological consequences of roads and developing ways to mitigate their negative effects has become an important goal for many conservation biologists. Most mitigation measures are based on road mortality and barrier effects data. However, studying fine-scale individual spatial responses in roaded landscapes may help develop more cohesive road planning strategies for wildlife conservation. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We investigated how individuals respond in their spatial behavior toward a highway and its traffic intensity by radio-tracking two common species particularly vulnerable to road mortality (barn owl Tyto alba and stone marten Martes foina. We addressed the following questions: 1 how highways affected home-range location and size in the immediate vicinity of these structures, 2 which road-related features influenced habitat selection, 3 what was the role of different road-related features on movement properties, and 4 which characteristics were associated with crossing events and road-kills. The main findings were: 1 if there was available habitat, barn owls and stone martens may not avoid highways and may even include highways within their home-ranges; 2 both species avoided using areas near the highway when traffic was high, but tended to move toward the highway when streams were in close proximity and where verges offered suitable habitat; and 3 barn owls tended to cross above-grade highway sections while stone martens tended to avoid crossing at leveled highway sections. CONCLUSIONS: Mortality may be the main road-mediated mechanism that affects barn owl and stone marten populations. Fine-scale movements strongly indicated that a decrease in road mortality risk can be realized by reducing sources of attraction, and by increasing road permeability through measures that promote safe crossings.

  9. Depression and risk of mortality in people with diabetes mellitus: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fleur E P van Dooren

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To examine the association between depression and all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in people with diabetes by systematically reviewing the literature and carrying out a meta-analysis of relevant longitudinal studies. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: PUBMED and PSYCINFO were searched for articles assessing mortality risk associated with depression in diabetes up until August 16, 2012. The pooled hazard ratios were calculated using random-effects models. RESULTS: Sixteen studies met the inclusion criteria, which were pooled in an overall all-cause mortality estimate, and five in a cardiovascular mortality estimate. After adjustment for demographic variables and micro- and macrovascular complications, depression was associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality (HR = 1.46, 95% CI = 1.29-1.66, and cardiovascular mortality (HR = 1.39, 95% CI = 1.11-1.73. Heterogeneity across studies was high for all-cause mortality and relatively low for cardiovascular mortality, with an I-squared of respectively 78.6% and 39.6%. Subgroup analyses showed that the association between depression and mortality not significantly change when excluding three articles presenting odds ratios, yet this decreased heterogeneity substantially (HR = 1.49, 95% CI = 1.39-1.61, I-squared = 15.1%. A comparison between type 1 and type 2 diabetes could not be undertaken, as only one study reported on type 1 diabetes specifically. CONCLUSIONS: Depression is associated with an almost 1.5-fold increased risk of mortality in people with diabetes. Research should focus on both cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular causes of death associated with depression, and determine the underlying behavioral and physiological mechanisms that may explain this association.

  10. Red blood cell transfusion and mortality in trauma patients: risk-stratified analysis of an observational study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pablo Perel

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Haemorrhage is a common cause of death in trauma patients. Although transfusions are extensively used in the care of bleeding trauma patients, there is uncertainty about the balance of risks and benefits and how this balance depends on the baseline risk of death. Our objective was to evaluate the association of red blood cell (RBC transfusion with mortality according to the predicted risk of death.A secondary analysis of the CRASH-2 trial (which originally evaluated the effect of tranexamic acid on mortality in trauma patients was conducted. The trial included 20,127 trauma patients with significant bleeding from 274 hospitals in 40 countries. We evaluated the association of RBC transfusion with mortality in four strata of predicted risk of death: 50%. For this analysis the exposure considered was RBC transfusion, and the main outcome was death from all causes at 28 days. A total of 10,227 patients (50.8% received at least one transfusion. We found strong evidence that the association of transfusion with all-cause mortality varied according to the predicted risk of death (p-value for interaction 50% predicted risk of death (OR 0.59, 95% CI 0.47-0.74, p<0.0001. Transfusion was associated with an increase in fatal and non-fatal vascular events (OR 2.58, 95% CI 2.05-3.24, p<0.0001. The risk associated with RBC transfusion was significantly increased for all the predicted risk of death categories, but the relative increase was higher for those with the lowest (<6% predicted risk of death (p-value for interaction <0.0001. As this was an observational study, the results could have been affected by different types of confounding. In addition, we could not consider haemoglobin in our analysis. In sensitivity analyses, excluding patients who died early; conducting propensity score analysis adjusting by use of platelets, fresh frozen plasma, and cryoprecipitate; and adjusting for country produced results that were similar.The association of transfusion

  11. Undernutrition, subsequent risk of mortality and civil war in Burundi.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verwimp, Philip

    2012-07-01

    The paper investigates the effect of child undernutrition on the risk of mortality in Burundi. Using anthropometric data from a longitudinal survey (1998-2007) we find that undernourished children, measured by the height-for-age z-scores (HAZ) in 1998 had a higher probability to die during subsequent years. In order to address the problem of omitted variables correlated with both nutritional status and the risk of mortality, we use the length of exposure to civil war prior to 1998 as a source of exogenous variation in a child's nutritional status. Children exposed to civil war in their area of residence have worse nutritional status. The results indicate that one year of exposure translates into a 0.15 decrease in the HAZ, resulting in a 10% increase in the probability to die. For boys, we find a 0.34 decrease in HAZ per year of exposure, resulting in 25% increase in the probability to die. For girls, the results are statistically not significant at the usual thresholds. We show the robustness of our results and we derive policy conclusion for a nutrition intervention in times of conflict. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Thermal extremes mortality risk assessment in urban areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paulo Canário

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available The impact of heat waves on mortality has been the subject of numerous studies and the focus of attention of various national and international governmental bodies. In the summer of 2003 alone, which was exceptionally hot, the number of deaths in 12 European countries increased by 70,000. The overall trend of warming will lead to an increase in frequency, duration and intensity of heat waves and to an increase in heat related mortality. The need to assess the risk of death due to extreme heat, at a detailed spatial scale, has determined the implementation of a research project based on a general model of risk for potentially destructive natural phenomena; the model uses the relationship between hazard and vulnerability and was designed primarily for urban areas. The major hazardous meteorological variables are those that determine the thermal complex (air temperature, radiative temperature, wind and humidity and the variables related to air quality (mainly ozone and Particulate matter. Vulnerability takes into account the population sensitivity (at various spatial scales and their exposure to thermal extremes.

  13. Dysthymia and depression increase risk of dementia and mortality among older veterans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byers, Amy L; Covinsky, Kenneth E; Barnes, Deborah E; Yaffe, Kristine

    2012-08-01

    To determine whether less severe depression spectrum diagnoses such as dysthymia, as well as depression, are associated with risk of developing dementia and mortality in a "real-world" setting. Retrospective cohort study conducted using the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) National Patient Care Database (1997-2007). VA medical centers in the United States. A total of 281,540 veterans aged 55 years and older without dementia at study baseline (1997-2000). Depression status and incident dementia were ascertained from International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision codes during study baseline (1997-2000) and follow-up (2001-2007), respectively. Mortality was ascertained by time of death dates in the VA Vital Status File. Ten percent of veterans had baseline diagnosis of depression and nearly 1% had dysthymia. The unadjusted incidence of dementia was 11.2% in veterans with depression, 10.2% with dysthymia and 6.4% with neither. After adjusting for demographics and comorbidities, patients diagnosed with dysthymia or depression were twice as likely to develop incident dementia compared with those with no dysthymia/depression (adjusted dysthymia hazard ratio [HR]: 1.96, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.71-2.25; and depression HR: 2.18, 95% CI: 2.08-2.28). Dysthymia and depression also were associated with increased risk of death (31.6% dysthymia and 32.9% depression versus 28.5% neither; adjusted dysthymia HR: 1.41, 95% CI: 1.31-1.53; and depression HR: 1.47, 95% CI: 1.43-1.51). Findings suggest that older adults with dysthymia or depression need to be monitored closely for adverse outcomes. Future studies should determine whether treatment of depression spectrum disorders may reduce risk of these outcomes.

  14. Do insurers respond to risk adjustment? A long-term, nationwide analysis from Switzerland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    von Wyl, Viktor; Beck, Konstantin

    2016-03-01

    Community rating in social health insurance calls for risk adjustment in order to eliminate incentives for risk selection. Swiss risk adjustment is known to be insufficient, and substantial risk selection incentives remain. This study develops five indicators to monitor residual risk selection. Three indicators target activities of conglomerates of insurers (with the same ownership), which steer enrollees into specific carriers based on applicants' risk profiles. As a proxy for their market power, those indicators estimate the amount of premium-, health care cost-, and risk-adjustment transfer variability that is attributable to conglomerates. Two additional indicators, derived from linear regression, describe the amount of residual cost differences between insurers that are not covered by risk adjustment. All indicators measuring conglomerate-based risk selection activities showed increases between 1996 and 2009, paralleling the establishment of new conglomerates. At their maxima in 2009, the indicator values imply that 56% of the net risk adjustment volume, 34% of premium variability, and 51% cost variability in the market were attributable to conglomerates. From 2010 onwards, all indicators decreased, coinciding with a pre-announced risk adjustment reform implemented in 2012. Likewise, the regression-based indicators suggest that the volume and variance of residual cost differences between insurers that are not equaled out by risk adjustment have decreased markedly since 2009 as a result of the latest reform. Our analysis demonstrates that risk-selection, especially by conglomerates, is a real phenomenon in Switzerland. However, insurers seem to have reduced risk selection activities to optimize their losses and gains from the latest risk adjustment reform.

  15. Are metformin, statin and aspirin use still associated with overall mortality among colorectal cancer patients with diabetes if adjusted for one another?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zanders, M. M. J.; van Herk-Sukel, M. P. P.; Vissers, P. A. J.; Herings, R. M. C.; Haak, H. R.; van de Poll-Franse, L. V.

    2015-01-01

    Background: Metformin, statin and aspirin use seem associated with decreased mortality in cancer patients, though, without adjusting for one another. Independent associations of these drugs with overall mortality after colorectal cancer (CRC) diagnosis within glucose-lowering drugs (GLDs) users were

  16. Performance evaluation of inpatient service in Beijing: a horizontal comparison with risk adjustment based on Diagnosis Related Groups.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jian, Weiyan; Huang, Yinmin; Hu, Mu; Zhang, Xiumei

    2009-04-30

    The medical performance evaluation, which provides a basis for rational decision-making, is an important part of medical service research. Current progress with health services reform in China is far from satisfactory, without sufficient regulation. To achieve better progress, an effective tool for evaluating medical performance needs to be established. In view of this, this study attempted to develop such a tool appropriate for the Chinese context. Data was collected from the front pages of medical records (FPMR) of all large general public hospitals (21 hospitals) in the third and fourth quarter of 2007. Locally developed Diagnosis Related Groups (DRGs) were introduced as a tool for risk adjustment and performance evaluation indicators were established: Charge Efficiency Index (CEI), Time Efficiency Index (TEI) and inpatient mortality of low-risk group cases (IMLRG), to reflect respectively work efficiency and medical service quality. Using these indicators, the inpatient services' performance was horizontally compared among hospitals. Case-mix Index (CMI) was used to adjust efficiency indices and then produce adjusted CEI (aCEI) and adjusted TEI (aTEI). Poisson distribution analysis was used to test the statistical significance of the IMLRG differences between different hospitals. Using the aCEI, aTEI and IMLRG scores for the 21 hospitals, Hospital A and C had relatively good overall performance because their medical charges were lower, LOS shorter and IMLRG smaller. The performance of Hospital P and Q was the worst due to their relatively high charge level, long LOS and high IMLRG. Various performance problems also existed in the other hospitals. It is possible to develop an accurate and easy to run performance evaluation system using Case-Mix as the tool for risk adjustment, choosing indicators close to consumers and managers, and utilizing routine report forms as the basic information source. To keep such a system running effectively, it is necessary to

  17. A low serum bicarbonate concentration as a risk factor for mortality in peritoneal dialysis patients.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tae Ik Chang

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND AND AIM: Metabolic acidosis is common in patients with chronic kidney disease and is associated with increased mortality in hemodialysis patients. However, this relationship has not yet been determined in peritoneal dialysis (PD patients. METHODS: This prospective observational study included a total of 441 incident patients who started PD between January 2000 and December 2005. Using time-averaged serum bicarbonate (TA-Bic levels, we aimed to investigate whether a low serum bicarbonate concentration can predict mortality in these patients. RESULTS: Among the baseline parameters, serum bicarbonate level was positively associated with hemoglobin level and residual glomerular filtration rate (GFR, while it was negatively associated with albumin, C-reactive protein (CRP levels, peritoneal Kt/V urea, and normalized protein catabolic rate (nPCR in a multivariable linear regression analysis. During a median follow-up of 34.8 months, 149 deaths were recorded. After adjustment for age, diabetes, coronary artery disease, serum albumin, ferritin, CRP, residual GFR, peritoneal Kt/V urea, nPCR, and percentage of lean body mass, TA-Bic level was associated with a significantly decreased risk of mortality (HR per 1 mEq/L increase, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.76-0.91; p < 0.001. In addition, compared to patients with a TA-Bic level of 24-26 mEq/L, those with a TA-Bic level < 22 and between 22-24 mEq/L conferred a 13.10- and 2.13-fold increased risk of death, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: This study showed that a low serum bicarbonate concentration is an independent risk factor for mortality in PD patients. This relationship between low bicarbonate levels and adverse outcome could be related to enhanced inflammation and a more rapid loss of RRF associated with metabolic acidosis. Large randomized clinical trials to correct acidosis are warranted to confirm our findings.

  18. Development and Validation of Perioperative Risk-Adjustment Models for Hip Fracture Repair, Total Hip Arthroplasty, and Total Knee Arthroplasty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schilling, Peter L; Bozic, Kevin J

    2016-01-06

    Comparing outcomes across providers requires risk-adjustment models that account for differences in case mix. The burden of data collection from the clinical record can make risk-adjusted outcomes difficult to measure. The purpose of this study was to develop risk-adjustment models for hip fracture repair (HFR), total hip arthroplasty (THA), and total knee arthroplasty (TKA) that weigh adequacy of risk adjustment against data-collection burden. We used data from the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program to create derivation cohorts for HFR (n = 7000), THA (n = 17,336), and TKA (n = 28,661). We developed logistic regression models for each procedure using age, sex, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) physical status classification, comorbidities, laboratory values, and vital signs-based comorbidities as covariates, and validated the models with use of data from 2012. The derivation models' C-statistics for mortality were 80%, 81%, 75%, and 92% and for adverse events were 68%, 68%, 60%, and 70% for HFR, THA, TKA, and combined procedure cohorts. Age, sex, and ASA classification accounted for a large share of the explained variation in mortality (50%, 58%, 70%, and 67%) and adverse events (43%, 45%, 46%, and 68%). For THA and TKA, these three variables were nearly as predictive as models utilizing all covariates. HFR model discrimination improved with the addition of comorbidities and laboratory values; among the important covariates were functional status, low albumin, high creatinine, disseminated cancer, dyspnea, and body mass index. Model performance was similar in validation cohorts. Risk-adjustment models using data from health records demonstrated good discrimination and calibration for HFR, THA, and TKA. It is possible to provide adequate risk adjustment using only the most predictive variables commonly available within the clinical record. This finding helps to inform the trade-off between model performance and data

  19. Obesity and trauma mortality: Sizing up the risks in motor vehicle crashes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joseph, Bellal; Hadeed, Steven; Haider, Ansab A; Ditillo, Michael; Joseph, Aly; Pandit, Viraj; Kulvatunyou, Narong; Tang, Andrew; Latifi, Rifat; Rhee, Peter

    Protective effects of safety devices in obese motorists in motor vehicle collisions (MVC) remain unclear. Aim of our study is to assess the association between morbid obesity and mortality in MVC, and to determine the efficacy of protective devices. We hypothesised that patients with morbid obesity will be at greater risk of death after MVC. A retrospective analysis of MVC patients (age ≥16 y.o.) was performed using the National Trauma Data Bank from 2007 to 2010. Patients with recorded comorbidity of morbid obesity (BMI≥40) were identified. Patients dead on arrival, with isolated traumatic brain injury, or incomplete data were excluded. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. Multivariate logistic regression was performed. Our sample of 214,306 MVC occupants included 10,260 (4.8%) morbidly obese patients. Mortality risk was greatest among occupants with morbid obesity (OR crude 1.74 [1.54-1.98]). After adjusting for patient demographics, safety device and physiological severity, odds of death was 1.52 [1.33-1.74] times greater in motorists with morbid obesity. Motorists with morbid obesity were at greater risk of death if no restraint (OR 1.84 [1.47-2.31]), seatbelt only (OR 1.48 [1.17-1.86]), or both seatbelt and airbag were present (OR 1.49 [1.13-1.97]). No significant differences in the odds of death exist between drivers with morbid obesity and non-morbidly obese drivers with only airbag deployment (OR 0.99 [0.65-1.51]). Motorists with morbid obesity are at greater risk of MVC. Regardless of safety device use, occupants with morbid obesity remained at greater risk of death. Further research examining the effectiveness of vehicle restraints in drivers with morbid obesity is warranted. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  20. Information bias and lifetime mortality risks of radiation-induced cancer: Low LET radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peterson, L.E.; Schull, W.J.; Davis, B.R.; Buffler, P.A.

    1994-04-01

    Additive and multiplicative models of relative risk were used to measure the effect of cancer misclassification and DS86 random errors on lifetime risk projections in the Life Span Study (LSS) of Hiroshima and Nagasaki atomic bomb survivors. The true number of cancer deaths in each stratum of the cancer mortality cross-classification was estimated using sufficient statistics from the EM algorithm. Average survivor doses in the strata were corrected for DS86 random error (σ=0.45) by use of reduction factors. Poisson regression was used to model the corrected and uncorrected mortality rates with risks in RERF Report 11 (Part 2) and the BEIR-V Report. Bias due to DS86 random error typically ranged from -15% to -30% for both sexes, and all sites and models. The total bias, including diagnostic misclassification, of excess risk of nonleukemia for exposure to 1 Sv from age 18 to 65 under the non-constant relative project model was -37.1% for males and -23.3% for females. Total excess risks of leukemia under the relative projection model were biased -27.1% for males and -43.4% for females. Thus, nonleukemia risks for 1 Sv from ages 18 to 65 (DRREF=2) increased from 1.91%/Sv to 2.68%/Sv among males and from 3.23%/Sv to 4.92%/Sv among females. Leukemia excess risk increased from 0.87%/Sv to 1.10/Sv among males and from 0.73%/Sv to 1.04/Sv among females. Bias was dependent on the gender, site, correction method, exposure profile and projection model considered. Future studies that use LSS data for US nuclear workers may be downwardly biased if lifetime risk projections are not adjusted for random and systematic errors

  1. Information bias and lifetime mortality risks of radiation-induced cancer: Low LET radiation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peterson, L.E.; Schull, W.J.; Davis, B.R. [Texas Univ., Houston, TX (United States). Health Science Center; Buffler, P.A. [California Univ., Berkeley, CA (United States). School of Public Health

    1994-04-01

    Additive and multiplicative models of relative risk were used to measure the effect of cancer misclassification and DS86 random errors on lifetime risk projections in the Life Span Study (LSS) of Hiroshima and Nagasaki atomic bomb survivors. The true number of cancer deaths in each stratum of the cancer mortality cross-classification was estimated using sufficient statistics from the EM algorithm. Average survivor doses in the strata were corrected for DS86 random error ({sigma}=0.45) by use of reduction factors. Poisson regression was used to model the corrected and uncorrected mortality rates with risks in RERF Report 11 (Part 2) and the BEIR-V Report. Bias due to DS86 random error typically ranged from {minus}15% to {minus}30% for both sexes, and all sites and models. The total bias, including diagnostic misclassification, of excess risk of nonleukemia for exposure to 1 Sv from age 18 to 65 under the non-constant relative project model was {minus}37.1% for males and {minus}23.3% for females. Total excess risks of leukemia under the relative projection model were biased {minus}27.1% for males and {minus}43.4% for females. Thus, nonleukemia risks for 1 Sv from ages 18 to 65 (DRREF=2) increased from 1.91%/Sv to 2.68%/Sv among males and from 3.23%/Sv to 4.92%/Sv among females. Leukemia excess risk increased from 0.87%/Sv to 1.10/Sv among males and from 0.73%/Sv to 1.04/Sv among females. Bias was dependent on the gender, site, correction method, exposure profile and projection model considered. Future studies that use LSS data for US nuclear workers may be downwardly biased if lifetime risk projections are not adjusted for random and systematic errors.

  2. Risk adjustment of health-care performance measures in a multinational register-based study: A pragmatic approach to a complicated topic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tron Anders Moger

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: Health-care performance comparisons across countries are gaining popularity. In such comparisons, the risk adjustment methodology plays a key role for meaningful comparisons. However, comparisons may be complicated by the fact that not all participating countries are allowed to share their data across borders, meaning that only simple methods are easily used for the risk adjustment. In this study, we develop a pragmatic approach using patient-level register data from Finland, Hungary, Italy, Norway, and Sweden. Methods: Data on acute myocardial infarction patients were gathered from health-care registers in several countries. In addition to unadjusted estimates, we studied the effects of adjusting for age, gender, and a number of comorbidities. The stability of estimates for 90-day mortality and length of stay of the first hospital episode following diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction is studied graphically, using different choices of reference data. Logistic regression models are used for mortality, and negative binomial models are used for length of stay. Results: Results from the sensitivity analysis show that the various models of risk adjustment give similar results for the countries, with some exceptions for Hungary and Italy. Based on the results, in Finland and Hungary, the 90-day mortality after acute myocardial infarction is higher than in Italy, Norway, and Sweden. Conclusion: Health-care registers give encouraging possibilities to performance measurement and enable the comparison of entire patient populations between countries. Risk adjustment methodology is affected by the availability of data, and thus, the building of risk adjustment methodology must be transparent, especially when doing multinational comparative research. In that case, even basic methods of risk adjustment may still be valuable.

  3. Lipoprotein(a) concentration and the risk of coronary heart disease, stroke, and nonvascular mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Collaboration, Emerging Risk Factors; Erqou, Sebhat; Kaptoge, Stephen

    2009-01-01

    were recorded, including 9336 CHD outcomes, 1903 ischemic strokes, 338 hemorrhagic strokes, 751 unclassified strokes, 1091 other vascular deaths, 8114 nonvascular deaths, and 242 deaths of unknown cause. Within-study regression analyses were adjusted for within-person variation and combined using meta.......02-1.18) for ischemic stroke, 1.01 (95% CI, 0.98-1.05) for the aggregate of nonvascular mortality, 1.00 (95% CI, 0.97-1.04) for cancer deaths, and 1.00 (95% CI, 0.95-1.06) for nonvascular deaths other than cancer. CONCLUSION: Under a wide range of circumstances, there are continuous, independent, and modest......CONTEXT: Circulating concentration of lipoprotein(a) (Lp[a]), a large glycoprotein attached to a low-density lipoprotein-like particle, may be associated with risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke. OBJECTIVE: To assess the relationship of Lp(a) concentration with risk of major vascular...

  4. Prevalent and incident tuberculosis are independent risk factors for mortality among patients accessing antiretroviral therapy in South Africa.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ankur Gupta

    Full Text Available Patients with prevalent or incident tuberculosis (TB in antiretroviral treatment (ART programmes in sub-Saharan Africa have high mortality risk. However, published data are contradictory as to whether TB is a risk factor for mortality that is independent of CD4 cell counts and other patient characteristics.This observational ART cohort study was based in Cape Town, South Africa. Deaths from all causes were ascertained among patients receiving ART for up to 8 years. TB diagnoses and 4-monthly CD4 cell counts were recorded. Mortality rates were calculated and Poisson regression models were used to calculate incidence rate ratios (IRR and identify risk factors for mortality. Of 1544 patients starting ART, 464 patients had prevalent TB at baseline and 424 developed incident TB during a median of 5.0 years follow-up. Most TB diagnoses (73.6% were culture-confirmed. A total of 208 (13.5% patients died during ART and mortality rates were 8.84 deaths/100 person-years during the first year of ART and decreased to 1.14 deaths/100 person-years after 5 years. In multivariate analyses adjusted for baseline and time-updated risk factors, both prevalent and incident TB were independent risk factors for mortality (IRR 1.7 [95% CI, 1.2-2.3] and 2.7 [95% CI, 1.9-3.8], respectively. Adjusted mortality risks were higher in the first 6 months of ART for those with prevalent TB at baseline (IRR 2.33; 95% CI, 1.5-3.5 and within the 6 months following diagnoses of incident TB (IRR 3.8; 95% CI, 2.6-5.7.Prevalent TB at baseline and incident TB during ART were strongly associated with increased mortality risk. This effect was time-dependent, suggesting that TB and mortality are likely to be causally related and that TB is not simply an epiphenomenon among highly immunocompromised patients. Strategies to rapidly diagnose, treat and prevent TB prior to and during ART urgently need to be implemented.

  5. Modelling the potential impact of a sugar-sweetened beverage tax on stroke mortality, costs and health-adjusted life years in South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mercy Manyema

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Stroke poses a growing human and economic burden in South Africa. Excess sugar consumption, especially from sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs, has been associated with increased obesity and stroke risk. Research shows that price increases for SSBs can influence consumption and modelling evidence suggests that taxing SSBs has the potential to reduce obesity and related diseases. This study estimates the potential impact of an SSB tax on stroke-related mortality, costs and health-adjusted life years in South Africa. Methods A proportional multi-state life table-based model was constructed in Microsoft Excel (2010. We used consumption data from the 2012 South African National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, previously published own and cross price elasticities of SSBs and energy balance equations to estimate changes in daily energy intake and BMI arising from increased SSB prices. Stroke relative risk, and prevalent years lived with disability estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study and modelled disease epidemiology estimates from a previous study, were used to estimate the effect of the BMI changes on the burden of stroke. Results Our model predicts that an SSB tax may avert approximately 72 000 deaths, 550 000 stroke-related health-adjusted life years and over ZAR5 billion, (USD400 million in health care costs over 20 years (USD296-576 million. Over 20 years, the number of incident stroke cases may be reduced by approximately 85 000 and prevalent cases by about 13 000. Conclusions Fiscal policy has the potential, as part of a multi-faceted approach, to mitigate the growing burden of stroke in South Africa and contribute to the achievement of the target set by the Department of Health to reduce relative premature mortality (less than 60 years from non-communicable diseases by the year 2020.

  6. Lifestyle factors and mortality risk in individuals with diabetes mellitus: are the associations different from those in individuals without diabetes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sluik, Diewertje; Boeing, Heiner; Li, Kuanrong; Kaaks, Rudolf; Johnsen, Nina Føns; Tjønneland, Anne; Arriola, Larraitz; Barricarte, Aurelio; Masala, Giovanna; Grioni, Sara; Tumino, Rosario; Ricceri, Fulvio; Mattiello, Amalia; Spijkerman, Annemieke M W; van der A, Daphne L; Sluijs, Ivonne; Franks, Paul W; Nilsson, Peter M; Orho-Melander, Marju; Fhärm, Eva; Rolandsson, Olov; Riboli, Elio; Romaguera, Dora; Weiderpass, Elisabete; Sánchez-Cantalejo, Emilio; Nöthlings, Ute

    2014-01-01

    Thus far, it is unclear whether lifestyle recommendations for people with diabetes should be different from those for the general public. We investigated whether the associations between lifestyle factors and mortality risk differ between individuals with and without diabetes. Within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC), a cohort was formed of 6,384 persons with diabetes and 258,911 EPIC participants without known diabetes. Joint Cox proportional hazard regression models of people with and without diabetes were built for the following lifestyle factors in relation to overall mortality risk: BMI, waist/height ratio, 26 food groups, alcohol consumption, leisure-time physical activity, smoking. Likelihood ratio tests for heterogeneity assessed statistical differences in regression coefficients. Multivariable adjusted mortality risk among individuals with diabetes compared with those without was increased, with an HR of 1.62 (95% CI 1.51, 1.75). Intake of fruit, legumes, nuts, seeds, pasta, poultry and vegetable oil was related to a lower mortality risk, and intake of butter and margarine was related to an increased mortality risk. These associations were significantly different in magnitude from those in diabetes-free individuals, but directions were similar. No differences between people with and without diabetes were detected for the other lifestyle factors. Diabetes status did not substantially influence the associations between lifestyle and mortality risk. People with diabetes may benefit more from a healthy diet, but the directions of association were similar. Thus, our study suggests that lifestyle advice with respect to mortality for patients with diabetes should not differ from recommendations for the general population.

  7. Trends and patterns of modern contraceptive use and relationships with high-risk births and child mortality in Burkina Faso

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdoulaye Maïga

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Background: In sub-Saharan Africa, few studies have stressed the importance of spatial heterogeneity analysis in modern contraceptive use and the relationships with high-risk births. Objective: This paper aims to analyse the association between modern contraceptive use, distribution of birth risk, and under-five child mortality at both national and regional levels in Burkina Faso. Design: The last three Demographic and Health Surveys – conducted in Burkina Faso in 1998, 2003, and 2010 – enabled descriptions of differentials, trends, and associations between modern contraceptive use, total fertility rates (TFR, and factors associated with high-risk births and under-five child mortality. Multivariate models, adjusted by covariates of cultural and socio-economic background and contact with health system, were used to investigate the relationship between birth risk factors and modern contraceptive prevalence rates (mCPR. Results: Overall, Burkina Faso's modern contraception level remains low (15.4% in 2010, despite significant increases during the last decade. However, there are substantial variations in mCPR by region, and health facility contact was positively associated with mCPR increase. Women's fertility history and cultural and socio-economic background were also significant factors in predicting use of modern contraception. Low modern contraceptive use is associated with higher birth risks and increased child mortality. This association is stronger in the Sahel, Est, and Sud-Ouest regions. Even though all factors in high-risk births were associated with under-five mortality, it should be stressed that short birth spacing ranked as the highest risk in relation to mortality of children. Conclusions: Programmes that target sub-national differentials and leverage women's health system contacts to inform women about family planning opportunities may be effective in improving coverage, quality, and equity of modern contraceptive use. Improving

  8. National and subnational mortality effects of metabolic risk factors and smoking in Iran: a comparative risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farzadfar Farshad

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Mortality from cardiovascular and other chronic diseases has increased in Iran. Our aim was to estimate the effects of smoking and high systolic blood pressure (SBP, fasting plasma glucose (FPG, total cholesterol (TC, and high body mass index (BMI on mortality and life expectancy, nationally and subnationally, using representative data and comparable methods. Methods We used data from the Non-Communicable Disease Surveillance Survey to estimate means and standard deviations for the metabolic risk factors, nationally and by region. Lung cancer mortality was used to measure cumulative exposure to smoking. We used data from the death registration system to estimate age-, sex-, and disease-specific numbers of deaths in 2005, adjusted for incompleteness using demographic methods. We used systematic reviews and meta-analyses of epidemiologic studies to obtain the effect of risk factors on disease-specific mortality. We estimated deaths and life expectancy loss attributable to risk factors using the comparative risk assessment framework. Results In 2005, high SBP was responsible for 41,000 (95% uncertainty interval: 38,000, 44,000 deaths in men and 39,000 (36,000, 42,000 deaths in women in Iran. High FPG, BMI, and TC were responsible for about one-third to one-half of deaths attributable to SBP in men and/or women. Smoking was responsible for 9,000 deaths among men and 2,000 among women. If SBP were reduced to optimal levels, life expectancy at birth would increase by 3.2 years (2.6, 3.9 and 4.1 years (3.2, 4.9 in men and women, respectively; the life expectancy gains ranged from 1.1 to 1.8 years for TC, BMI, and FPG. SBP was also responsible for the largest number of deaths in every region, with age-standardized attributable mortality ranging from 257 to 333 deaths per 100,000 adults in different regions. Discussion Management of blood pressure through diet, lifestyle, and pharmacological interventions should be a priority in Iran

  9. Is hyperglycemia a risk factor for neonatal morbidity and mortality?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gul, R.; Waheed, K. A. I.; Sheikh, M.; Javaid, S.; Haroon, F.; Fatima, S. T.

    2017-01-01

    Objective: To determine the extent of morbidity and mortality in newborns with neonatal hyperglycemia where published data are limited. Study Design: Observational case control study. Place and Duration of Study: Department of Neonatology, the Children'Hospital and the Institute of Child Health Lahore, from 1st May to 31st Oct 2015. Material and Methods: A prospective, observational case control study was conducted in the Department of Neonatology, the Children'Hospital and the Institute of Child Health, Lahore, from 1st May till 31st October 2015. The sample size was 192, with 96 babies each in ‘study’ and ‘control’ groups. All neonates fulfilling the inclusion criteria were enrolled in the ‘study group’ while ‘control group’ consisted of euglycemic babies matched for age, weight, gestational age and clinical status. All babies were monitored for morbidity intraventricular hemorrhage (IVH), necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC), infections and outcome (duration of hospital stay, discharged or expired). Results: The data analysis showed that 74 percent neonates, of study group, had hyperglycemia during first week of their lives. Moreover, 84.4 percent babies were less than 2.5 kg. Significant high number of babies in the study group developed complications (p<0.001). These complications included IVH (p<0.001), NEC (p=0.024) and infections (p=0.019). As regards outcome, the neonates in the study group had significantly prolonged hospital stay (p=0.028), lower discharge rate (p=0.040) and higher mortality (p=0.040). Conclusion: Hyperglycemia not only significantly increases risk of IVH, NEC and infections, but also prolongs hospital stay and contributes to mortality among newborns. (author)

  10. studies on risk factors of mortality in lambs in sokoto, nigeria

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Dr. A.A

    could be helpful and to reduce mortality, the management of lambs particularly at early ... Key words: Risk factors, Mortality, Lambs, Sokoto, Nigeria ... vegetation, Sokoto state falls within the. Sudano .... balance than singletons (Skalski, 2003).

  11. Leisure-time aerobic physical activity, muscle-strengthening activity and mortality risks among US adults: the NHANES linked mortality study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Guixiang; Li, Chaoyang; Ford, Earl S; Fulton, Janet E; Carlson, Susan A; Okoro, Catherine A; Wen, Xiao Jun; Balluz, Lina S

    2014-02-01

    Regular physical activity elicits multiple health benefits in the prevention and management of chronic diseases. We examined the mortality risks associated with levels of leisure-time aerobic physical activity and muscle-strengthening activity based on the 2008 Physical Activity Guidelines for Americans among US adults. We analysed data from the 1999 to 2004 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey with linked mortality data obtained through 2006. Cox proportional HRs with 95% CIs were estimated to assess risks for all-causes and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality associated with aerobic physical activity and muscle-strengthening activity. Of 10 535 participants, 665 died (233 deaths from CVD) during an average of 4.8-year follow-up. Compared with participants who were physically inactive, the adjusted HR for all-cause mortality was 0.64 (95% CI 0.52 to 0.79) among those who were physically active (engaging in ≥150 min/week of the equivalent moderate-intensity physical activity) and 0.72 (95% CI 0.54 to 0.97) among those who were insufficiently active (engaging in >0 to benefits among insufficiently active adults.

  12. Circulating CD34+ progenitor cells and risk of mortality in a population with coronary artery disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patel, Riyaz S; Li, Qunna; Ghasemzadeh, Nima; Eapen, Danny J; Moss, Lauren D; Janjua, A Umair; Manocha, Pankaj; Kassem, Hatem Al; Veledar, Emir; Samady, Habib; Taylor, W Robert; Zafari, A Maziar; Sperling, Laurence; Vaccarino, Viola; Waller, Edmund K; Quyyumi, Arshed A

    2015-01-16

    Low circulating progenitor cell numbers and activity may reflect impaired intrinsic regenerative/reparative potential, but it remains uncertain whether this translates into a worse prognosis. To investigate whether low numbers of progenitor cells associate with a greater risk of mortality in a population at high cardiovascular risk. Patients undergoing coronary angiography were recruited into 2 cohorts (1, n=502 and 2, n=403) over separate time periods. Progenitor cells were enumerated by flow cytometry as CD45(med+) blood mononuclear cells expressing CD34, with additional quantification of subsets coexpressing CD133, vascular endothelial growth factor receptor 2, and chemokine (C-X-C motif) receptor 4. Coefficient of variation for CD34 cells was 2.9% and 4.8%, 21.6% and 6.5% for the respective subsets. Each cohort was followed for a mean of 2.7 and 1.2 years, respectively, for the primary end point of all-cause death. There was an inverse association between CD34(+) and CD34(+)/CD133(+) cell counts and risk of death in cohort 1 (β=-0.92, P=0.043 and β=-1.64, P=0.019, respectively) that was confirmed in cohort 2 (β=-1.25, P=0.020 and β=-1.81, P=0.015, respectively). Covariate-adjusted hazard ratios in the pooled cohort (n=905) were 3.54 (1.67-7.50) and 2.46 (1.18-5.13), respectively. CD34(+)/CD133(+) cell counts improved risk prediction metrics beyond standard risk factors. Reduced circulating progenitor cell counts, identified primarily as CD34(+) mononuclear cells or its subset expressing CD133, are associated with risk of death in individuals with coronary artery disease, suggesting that impaired endogenous regenerative capacity is associated with increased mortality. These findings have implications for biological understanding, risk prediction, and cell selection for cell-based therapies. © 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.

  13. Milk intake and risk of mortality and fractures in women and men: cohort studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michaëlsson, Karl; Wolk, Alicja; Langenskiöld, Sophie; Basu, Samar; Warensjö Lemming, Eva; Melhus, Håkan; Byberg, Liisa

    2014-10-28

    To examine whether high milk consumption is associated with mortality and fractures in women and men. Cohort studies. Three counties in central Sweden. Two large Swedish cohorts, one with 61,433 women (39-74 years at baseline 1987-90) and one with 45,339 men (45-79 years at baseline 1997), were administered food frequency questionnaires. The women responded to a second food frequency questionnaire in 1997. Multivariable survival models were applied to determine the association between milk consumption and time to mortality or fracture. During a mean follow-up of 20.1 years, 15,541 women died and 17,252 had a fracture, of whom 4259 had a hip fracture. In the male cohort with a mean follow-up of 11.2 years, 10,112 men died and 5066 had a fracture, with 1166 hip fracture cases. In women the adjusted mortality hazard ratio for three or more glasses of milk a day compared with less than one glass a day was 1.93 (95% confidence interval 1.80 to 2.06). For every glass of milk, the adjusted hazard ratio of all cause mortality was 1.15 (1.13 to 1.17) in women and 1.03 (1.01 to 1.04) in men. For every glass of milk in women no reduction was observed in fracture risk with higher milk consumption for any fracture (1.02, 1.00 to 1.04) or for hip fracture (1.09, 1.05 to 1.13). The corresponding adjusted hazard ratios in men were 1.01 (0.99 to 1.03) and 1.03 (0.99 to 1.07). In subsamples of two additional cohorts, one in males and one in females, a positive association was seen between milk intake and both urine 8-iso-PGF2α (a biomarker of oxidative stress) and serum interleukin 6 (a main inflammatory biomarker). High milk intake was associated with higher mortality in one cohort of women and in another cohort of men, and with higher fracture incidence in women. Given the observational study designs with the inherent possibility of residual confounding and reverse causation phenomena, a cautious interpretation of the results is recommended. © Michaëlsson et al 2014.

  14. Work, household, and leisure-time physical activity and risk of mortality in the EPIC-Spain cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huerta, José Ma; Chirlaque, María Dolores; Tormo, María José; Buckland, Genevieve; Ardanaz, Eva; Arriola, Larraitz; Gavrila, Diana; Salmerón, Diego; Cirera, Lluís; Carpe, Bienvenida; Molina-Montes, Esther; Chamosa, Saioa; Travier, Noemie; Quirós, José R; Barricarte, Aurelio; Agudo, Antonio; Sánchez, María José; Navarro, Carmen

    2016-04-01

    Large-scale longitudinal data on the association of domain-specific physical activity (PA) and mortality is limited. Our objective was to evaluate the association of work, household (HPA), and leisure time PA (LTPA) with overall and cause-specific mortality in the EPIC-Spain study. 38,379 participants (62.4% women), 30-65years old, and free of chronic disease at baseline were followed-up from recruitment (1992 - 1996) to December 31st, 2008 to ascertain vital status and cause of death. PA was evaluated at baseline and at a 3-year follow-up with a validated questionnaire (EPIC-PAQ) and combined variables were used to classify the participants by sub-domains of PA. Associations with overall, cancer, and cardiovascular mortality risks were assessed using competing risk Cox regression models adjusted by potential confounders. After 13.6years of mean follow-up, 1371 deaths were available for analyses. HPA was strongly associated to reduced overall (hazard ratio (HR) for Q4 vs. Q1=0.47 (0.34, 0.64)) and cause-specific mortalities in women and to lower cancer mortality in men (P for trend=0.004), irrespective of age, education, and lifestyle and morbidity variables. LTPA was associated with lower mortality in women (HR for Q4 vs. Q1=0.71 (0.52, 0.98)), but not men. No relationships were found between sedentariness at work and overall mortality. HPA was associated to lower mortality risk in men and women from the EPIC-Spain cohort, whereas LTPA also contributed to reduce risk of death in women. Considering the large proportion of total daily PA that HPA represents in some population groups, these results are of public health importance. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Job losses and accumulated number of broken partnerships increase risk of premature mortality in Danish men born in 1953

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kriegbaum, Margit; Christensen, Ulla; Lund, Rikke

    2009-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To investigate how accumulation of job losses and broken partnerships affect the risk of premature mortality, and to study joint exposure to both events. METHODS: Birth cohort study of 9789 Danish men born in 1953 with follow-up of events between the ages of 40 and 51. RESULTS: The adj......OBJECTIVE: To investigate how accumulation of job losses and broken partnerships affect the risk of premature mortality, and to study joint exposure to both events. METHODS: Birth cohort study of 9789 Danish men born in 1953 with follow-up of events between the ages of 40 and 51. RESULTS......: The adjusted hazard rates for premature mortality was 1.44 (95% CI = 1.15 to 1.80) for individuals with one job loss, 1.55 (1.13 to 2.13) for individuals with one broken partnership, and 2.15 (95% CI = 1.49 to 3.10) for individuals with two or more broken partnerships. CONCLUSIONS: Experience of at least one...... job loss increased the risk of premature mortality. The risk of premature mortality increased with the number of broken partnerships. There was no statistical interaction between job losses and broken partnerships....

  16. Uric acid as a risk factor for cardiovascular disease and mortality in overweight/obese individuals.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Helle Skak-Nielsen

    Full Text Available The predictive value of serum uric acid (SUA for adverse cardiovascular events among obese and overweight patients is not known, but potentially important because of the relation between hyperuricaemia and obesity.The relationship between SUA and risk of cardiovascular adverse outcomes (nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, resuscitated cardiac arrest or cardiovascular death and all-cause mortality, respectively, was evaluated in a post-hoc analysis of the Sibutramine Cardiovascular OUTcomes (SCOUT trial. Participants enrolled in SCOUT were obese or overweight with pre-existing diabetes and/or cardiovascular disease (CVD. Cox models were used to assess the role of SUA as an independent risk factor.9742 subjects were included in the study; 83.6% had diabetes, and 75.1% had CVD. During an average follow-up time of 4.2 years, 1043 subjects had a primary outcome (myocardial infarction, resuscitated cardiac arrest, stroke, or cardiovascular death, and 816 died. In a univariate Cox model, the highest SUA quartile was associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular adverse outcomes compared with the lowest SUA quartile in women (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.59; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.20-2.10. In multivariate analyses, adjusting for known cardiovascular risk factors the increased risk for the highest SUA quartile was no longer statistically significant among women (HR: 0.99; 95% CI: 0.72-1.36 nor was it among men. Analyses of all-cause mortality found an interaction between sex and SUA. In a multivariate Cox model including women only, the highest SUA quartile was associated with an increased risk in all-cause mortality compared to the lowest SUA quartile (HR: 1.51; 95% CI: 1.08-2.12. No relationship was observed in men (HR: 1.06; 95% CI: 0.82-1.36.SUA was not an independent predictor of cardiovascular disease and death in these high-risk overweight/obese people. However, our results suggested that SUA was an independent predictor of all

  17. Identification of occupational mortality risks for Hanford workers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kneale, G.W.; Mancuso, T.F.; Stewart, A.M.

    1984-01-01

    Though most of the production work at Hanford is done by manual workers, 46% of the most dangerous jobs are performed by people who have professional or technical qualifications. For these privileged workers occupational mortality risks are positively correlated with radiation doses but for manual workers, who have relatively high death rates, there is an inverse relation with dose. The high ratio of professional to manual workers is clearly the reason for the industry having fewer observed than expected deaths and the inverse relation with dose for less privileged workers is probably a sign that there has been selective recruitment of the most highly paid manual workers-that is, skilled craftsmen into the more dangerous occupations. Evidence of this selective recruitment was obtained by equating danger levels with levels of monitoring for internal radiation. Therefore, there should be some control for these levels in any analysis of cancer effects of the measured dose of radiation. (author)

  18. Atrial Fibrillation in Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy: Prevalence, Clinical Correlations, and Mortality in a Large High‐Risk Population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siontis, Konstantinos C.; Geske, Jeffrey B.; Ong, Kevin; Nishimura, Rick A.; Ommen, Steve R.; Gersh, Bernard J.

    2014-01-01

    Background Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a common sequela of hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM), but evidence on its prevalence, risk factors, and effect on mortality is sparse. We sought to evaluate the prevalence of AF, identify clinical and echocardiographic correlates, and assess its effect on mortality in a large high‐risk HCM population. Methods and Results We identified HCM patients who underwent evaluation at our institution from 1975 to 2012. AF was defined by known history (either chronic or paroxysmal), electrocardiogram, or Holter monitoring at index visit. We examined clinical and echocardiographic variables in association with AF. The effect of AF on overall and cause‐specific mortality was evaluated with multivariate Cox proportional hazards models. Of 3673 patients with HCM, 650 (18%) had AF. Patients with AF were older and more symptomatic (P<0.001). AF was less common among patients with obstructive HCM phenotype and was associated with larger left atria, higher E/e’ ratios, and worse cardiopulmonary exercise tolerance (all P values<0.001). During median (interquartile range) follow‐up of 4.1 (0.2 to 10) years, 1069 (29%) patients died. Patients with AF had worse survival compared to those without AF (P<0.001). In multivariate analysis adjusted for established risk factors of mortality in HCM, the hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) for the effect of AF on overall mortality was 1.48 (1.27 to 1.71). AF did not have an effect on sudden or nonsudden cardiac death. Conclusions In this large referral HCM population, approximately 1 in 5 patients had AF. AF was a strong predictor of mortality, even after adjustment for established risk factors. PMID:24965028

  19. Stroke Risk and Mortality in Patients With Ventricular Assist Devices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parikh, Neal S; Cool, Joséphine; Karas, Maria G; Boehme, Amelia K; Kamel, Hooman

    2016-11-01

    Ventricular assist devices (VADs) have advanced the management of end-stage heart failure. However, these devices are associated with hemorrhagic and thrombotic complications, including stroke. We assessed the incidence, risk factors, and outcomes of ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke after VAD placement. Using administrative claims data from acute care hospitals in California, Florida, and New York from 2005 to 2013, we identified patients who underwent VAD placement, defined by the International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification code 37.66. Ischemic and hemorrhagic strokes were identified by previously validated coding algorithms. We used survival statistics to determine the incidence rates and Cox proportional hazard analyses to examine the associations. Among 1813 patients, we identified 201 ischemic strokes and 116 hemorrhagic strokes during 3.4 (±2.0) years of follow-up after implantation of a VAD. The incidence of stroke was 8.7% per year (95% confidence interval [CI], 7.7-9.7). The annual incidence of ischemic stroke (5.5%; 95% CI, 4.8-6.4) was nearly double that of hemorrhagic stroke (3.1%; 95% CI, 2.6-3.8). Women faced a higher hazard of stroke than men (hazard ratio, 1.6; 95% CI, 1.2-2.1), particularly hemorrhagic stroke (hazard ratio, 2.2; 95% CI, 1.4-3.4). Stroke was strongly associated with subsequent in-hospital mortality (hazard ratio, 6.1; 95% CI, 4.6-7.9). The incidence of stroke after VAD implantation was 8.7% per year, and incident stroke was strongly associated with subsequent in-hospital mortality. Notably, ischemic stroke occurred at nearly twice the rate of hemorrhagic stroke. Women seemed to face a higher risk for hemorrhagic stroke than men. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

  20. The risk-adjusted performance of companies with female directors: A South African case

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mkhethwa Mkhize

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this research was to examine the effects of female directors on the risk-adjusted performance of firms listed on the JSE Securities Exchange of South Africa (the JSE. The theoretical underpinning for the relationship between representation of female directors and the risk-adjusted performance of companies was based on institutional theory. The hypothesis that there is no difference between the risk-adjusted performance of companies with female directors and that of companies without female directors was rejected. Implications of the results are discussed and suggestions for future research presented.

  1. Impact of gender on the risk of AIDS-defining illnesses and mortality in Danish HIV-1-infected patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorsteinsson, Kristina; Ladelund, Steen; Jensen-Fangel, Søren

    2012-01-01

    Abstract Background: Gender differences in the risk of AIDS-defining illness (ADI) and mortality have been reported in the HIV-1-infected (HIV-positive) population, with conflicting findings. We aimed to assess the impact of gender on the risk of ADI and death in HIV-positive patients infected...... sexually. Methods: This was a population-based, nationwide cohort study of incident Danish HIV-positive individuals infected by sexual contact. Outcomes were progression to AIDS and death. We used Cox proportional hazards models and Poisson regression analyses to calculate the risk of progression to AIDS...... diagnosis MSM had a lower prevalence of AIDS compared to MSW. Women and MSW presented more often with tuberculosis and less often with AIDS-defining cancers compared to MSM. In the adjusted analyses we observed no differences in progression to AIDS. In the adjusted analyses of risk of death, there were...

  2. Does gender inequity increase men's mortality risk in the United States? A multilevel analysis of data from the National Longitudinal Mortality Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kavanagh, Shane A; Shelley, Julia M; Stevenson, Christopher

    2017-12-01

    A number of theoretical approaches suggest that gender inequity may give rise to health risks for men. This study undertook a multilevel analysis to ascertain if state-level measures of gender inequity are predictors of men's mortality in the United States. Data for the analysis were taken primarily from the National Longitudinal Mortality Study, which is based on a random sample of the non-institutionalised population. The full data set included 174,703 individuals nested within 50 states and had a six-year follow-up for mortality. Gender inequity was measured by nine variables: higher education, reproductive rights, abortion provider access, elected office, management, business ownership, labour force participation, earnings and relative poverty. Covariates at the individual level were age, income, education, race/ethnicity, marital status and employment status. Covariates at the state level were income inequality and per capita gross domestic product. The results of logistic multilevel modelling showed a number of measures of state-level gender inequity were significantly associated with men's mortality. In all of these cases greater gender inequity was associated with an increased mortality risk. In fully adjusted models for all-age adult men the elected office (OR 1.05 95% CI 1.01-1.09), business ownership (OR 1.04 95% CI 1.01-1.08), earnings (OR 1.04 95% CI 1.01-1.08) and relative poverty (OR 1.07 95% CI 1.03-1.10) measures all showed statistically significant effects for each 1 standard deviation increase in the gender inequity z -score. Similar effects were seen for working-age men. In older men (65+ years) only the earnings and relative poverty measures were statistically significant. This study provides evidence that gender inequity may increase men's health risks. The effect sizes while small are large enough across the range of gender inequity identified to have important population health implications.

  3. Risk factors for cerebrovascular disease mortality among the elderly in Beijing: a competing risk analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhe Tang

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To examine the associations of combined lifestyle factors and physical conditions with cerebrovascular diseases (CBVD mortality, after accounting for competing risk events, including death from cardiovascular diseases, cancers and other diseases. METHODS: Data on 2010 subjects aged over 55 years were finally analyzed using competing risk models. All the subjects were interviewed by the Beijing Longitudinal Study of Aging (BLSA, in China, between 1 January 1992 and 30 August 2009. RESULTS: Elderly females were at a lower risk of death from CBVD than elderly males (HR = 0.639, 95% CI = 0.457-0.895. Increasing age (HR = 1.543, 95% CI = 1.013-2.349, poor self-rated health (HR = 1.652, 95% CI = 1.198-2.277, hypertension (HR = 2.201, 95% CI = 1.524-3.178 and overweight (HR = 1.473, 95% CI = 1.013-2.142 or obesity (HR = 1.711, 95% CI = 1.1754-2.490 was associated with higher CBVD mortality risk. Normal cognition function (HR = 0.650, 95% CI = 0.434-0.973 and living in urban (HR = 0.456, 95% CI = 0.286-0.727 was associated with lower CBVD mortality risk. Gray's test also confirmed the cumulative incidence (CIF of CBVD was lower in the 'married' group than those without spouse, and the mortality was lowest in the 'nutrition sufficient' group among the 'frequent consumption of meat group' and the 'medial type group' (P value<0.001. CONCLUSIONS: CBVD mortality was associated with gender, age, blood pressure, residence, BMI, cognitive function, nutrition and the result of self-rated health assessment in the elderly in Beijing, China.

  4. Brachytherapy boost and cancer-specific mortality in favorable high-risk versus other high-risk prostate cancer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vinayak Muralidhar

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Purpose : Recent retrospective data suggest that brachytherapy (BT boost may confer a cancer-specific survival benefit in radiation-managed high-risk prostate cancer. We sought to determine whether this survival benefit would extend to the recently defined favorable high-risk subgroup of prostate cancer patients (T1c, Gleason 4 + 4 = 8, PSA 20 ng/ml. Material and methods: We identified 45,078 patients in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database with cT1c-T3aN0M0 intermediate- to high-risk prostate cancer diagnosed 2004-2011 treated with external beam radiation therapy (EBRT only or EBRT plus BT. We used multivariable competing risks regression to determine differences in the rate of prostate cancer-specific mortality (PCSM after EBRT + BT or EBRT alone in patients with intermediate-risk, favorable high-risk, or other high-risk disease after adjusting for demographic and clinical factors. Results : EBRT + BT was not associated with an improvement in 5-year PCSM compared to EBRT alone among patients with favorable high-risk disease (1.6% vs. 1.8%; adjusted hazard ratio [AHR]: 0.56; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.21-1.52, p = 0.258, and intermediate-risk disease (0.8% vs. 1.0%, AHR: 0.83, 95% CI: 0.59-1.16, p = 0.270. Others with high-risk disease had significantly lower 5-year PCSM when treated with EBRT + BT compared with EBRT alone (3.9% vs. 5.3%; AHR: 0.73; 95% CI: 0.55-0.95; p = 0.022. Conclusions : Brachytherapy boost is associated with a decreased rate of PCSM in some men with high-risk prostate cancer but not among patients with favorable high-risk disease. Our results suggest that the recently-defined “favorable high-risk” category may be used to personalize therapy for men with high-risk disease.

  5. Age-distribution, risk factors and mortality in smokers and non-smokers with acute myocardial infarction: a review. TRACE study group. Danish Trandolapril Cardiac Evaluation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ottesen, M M; Jørgensen, S; Kjøller, E

    1999-01-01

    Smoking is a risk factor for acute myocardial infarction; paradoxically, many studies have shown a lower post-infarct mortality among smokers. There are some important differences between smokers and non-smokers, which might explain the observed difference in mortality: smokers have less...... multivessel disease and atherosclerosis but are more thrombogenic; thrombolytic therapy seems to be more effective among smokers; smoking might result in an increased out-of-hospital mortality rate, by being more arrhythmogenic; and smokers are on average a decade younger than non-smokers at the time...... of infarction, and have less concomitant disease. Adjusting for these differences in regression analyses shows that smoking is not an independent risk factor for mortality after acute myocardial infarction. The difference in age and risk factors are responsible for the lower mortality among smokers....

  6. Risk-adjusted Outcomes of Clinically Relevant Pancreatic Fistula Following Pancreatoduodenectomy: A Model for Performance Evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMillan, Matthew T; Soi, Sameer; Asbun, Horacio J; Ball, Chad G; Bassi, Claudio; Beane, Joal D; Behrman, Stephen W; Berger, Adam C; Bloomston, Mark; Callery, Mark P; Christein, John D; Dixon, Elijah; Drebin, Jeffrey A; Castillo, Carlos Fernandez-Del; Fisher, William E; Fong, Zhi Ven; House, Michael G; Hughes, Steven J; Kent, Tara S; Kunstman, John W; Malleo, Giuseppe; Miller, Benjamin C; Salem, Ronald R; Soares, Kevin; Valero, Vicente; Wolfgang, Christopher L; Vollmer, Charles M

    2016-08-01

    To evaluate surgical performance in pancreatoduodenectomy using clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula (CR-POPF) occurrence as a quality indicator. Accurate assessment of surgeon and institutional performance requires (1) standardized definitions for the outcome of interest and (2) a comprehensive risk-adjustment process to control for differences in patient risk. This multinational, retrospective study of 4301 pancreatoduodenectomies involved 55 surgeons at 15 institutions. Risk for CR-POPF was assessed using the previously validated Fistula Risk Score, and pancreatic fistulas were stratified by International Study Group criteria. CR-POPF variability was evaluated and hierarchical regression analysis assessed individual surgeon and institutional performance. There was considerable variability in both CR-POPF risk and occurrence. Factors increasing the risk for CR-POPF development included increasing Fistula Risk Score (odds ratio 1.49 per point, P ratio 3.30, P performance outliers were identified at the surgeon and institutional levels. Of the top 10 surgeons (≥15 cases) for nonrisk-adjusted performance, only 6 remained in this high-performing category following risk adjustment. This analysis of pancreatic fistulas following pancreatoduodenectomy demonstrates considerable variability in both the risk and occurrence of CR-POPF among surgeons and institutions. Disparities in patient risk between providers reinforce the need for comprehensive, risk-adjusted modeling when assessing performance based on procedure-specific complications. Furthermore, beyond inherent patient risk factors, surgical decision-making influences fistula outcomes.

  7. Age-at-exposure effects on risk estimates for non-cancer mortality in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Wei; Muirhead, Colin R; Hunter, Nezahat

    2005-01-01

    Statistically significant increases in non-cancer disease mortality with radiation dose have been observed among survivors of the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The increasing trends arise particularly for diseases of the circulatory, digestive, and respiratory systems. Rates for survivors exposed to a dose of 1 Sv are elevated by about 10%, a smaller relative increase than that for cancer. The aetiology of this increased risk is not yet understood. Neither animal nor human studies have found clear evidence for excess non-cancer mortality at the lower range of doses received by A-bomb survivors. In this paper, we examine the age and time patterns of excess risks in the A-bomb survivors. The results suggest that the excess relative risk of non-cancer disease mortality might be highest for exposure at ages 30-49 years, and that those exposed at ages 0-29 years might have a very low excess relative risk compared with those exposed at older ages. The differences in excess relative risk for different age-at-exposure groups imply that the dose response relationships for non-cancer disease mortality need to be modelled with adjustment for age-at-exposure

  8. Risk factors for mortality during the 2002 landslides in Chuuk, Federated States of Micronesia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanchez, Carlos; Lee, Tze-San; Young, Stacy; Batts, Dahna; Benjamin, Jefferson; Malilay, Josephine

    2009-10-01

    This study examines health effects resulting from landslides in Chuuk during Tropical Storm Chata'an in July 2002, and suggests strategies to prevent future mortality. In August 2002, we conducted a cross-sectional survey to identify risk factors for mortality during landslides, which included 52 survivors and 40 surrogates for 43 decedents to identify risk factors for death. Findings suggest that 1) females had a higher mortality rate from this event than males, and 2) children aged 5-14 years had a 10-fold increase in mortality when compared with annual mortality rates from all causes. Awareness of landslides occurring elsewhere and knowledge of natural warning signs were significantly associated with lower risks of death; being outside during landslides was not associated with reduced mortality. In Chuuk, improving communication systems during tropical storms and increasing knowledge of natural warnings can reduce the risk for mortality during landslides.

  9. Subclinical hypothyroidism is associated with increased risk for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tseng, Fen-Yu; Lin, Wen-Yuan; Lin, Cheng-Chieh; Lee, Long-Teng; Li, Tsai-Chung; Sung, Pei-Kun; Huang, Kuo-Chin

    2012-08-21

    This study sought to evaluate the relationship between subclinical hypothyroidism (SCH) and all-cause and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality. SCH may increase the risks of hypercholesterolemia and atherosclerosis. The associations between SCH and all-cause or CVD mortality are uncertain, on the basis of the results of previous studies. A baseline cohort of 115,746 participants without a history of thyroid disease, ≥20 years of age, was recruited in Taiwan. SCH was defined as a serum thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) level of 5.0 to 19.96 mIU/l with normal total thyroxine concentrations. Euthyroidism was defined as a serum TSH level of 0.47 to 4.9 mIU/l. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was used to estimate the relative risks (RRs) of death from all-cause and CVD for adults with SCH during a 10-year follow-up period. There were 3,669 deaths during the follow-up period; 680 deaths were due to CVD. Compared with subjects with euthyroidism, after adjustment for age, sex, body mass index, diabetes, hypertension, dyslipidemia, smoking, alcohol consumption, betel nut chewing, physical activity, income, and education level, the RRs (95% confidence interval) of deaths from all-cause and CVD among subjects with SCH were 1.30 (1.02 to 1.66), and 1.68 (1.02 to 2.76), respectively. Adult Taiwanese with SCH had an increased risk for all-cause mortality and CVD death. Copyright © 2012 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Risk factors, mortality, and timing of ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke with left ventricular assist devices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frontera, Jennifer A; Starling, Randall; Cho, Sung-Min; Nowacki, Amy S; Uchino, Ken; Hussain, M Shazam; Mountis, Maria; Moazami, Nader

    2017-06-01

    Stroke is a major cause of mortality after left ventricular assist device (LVAD) placement. Prospectively collected data of patients with HeartMate II (n = 332) and HeartWare (n = 70) LVADs from October 21, 2004, to May 19, 2015, were reviewed. Predictors of early (during index hospitalization) and late (post-discharge) ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke and association of stroke subtypes with mortality were assessed. Of 402 patients, 83 strokes occurred in 69 patients (17%; 0.14 events per patient-year [EPPY]): early ischemic stroke in 18/402 (4%; 0.03 EPPY), early hemorrhagic stroke in 11/402 (3%; 0.02 EPPY), late ischemic stroke in 25/402 (6%; 0.04 EPPY) and late hemorrhagic stroke in 29/402 (7%; 0.05 EPPY). Risk of stroke and death among patients with stroke was bimodal with highest risks immediately post-implant and increasing again 9-12 months later. Risk of death declined over time in patients without stroke. Modifiable stroke risk factors varied according to timing and stroke type, including tobacco use, bacteremia, pump thrombosis, pump infection, and hypertension (all p hemorrhagic stroke (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 4.3, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.0-17.8, p = 0.04), late ischemic stroke (aOR 3.2, 95% CI 1.1-9.0, p = 0.03), and late hemorrhagic stroke (aOR 3.7, 95% CI 1.5-9.2, p = 0.005) predicted death, whereas early ischemic stroke did not. Stroke is a leading cause and predictor of death in patients with LVADs. Risk of stroke and death among patients with stroke is bimodal, with highest risk at time of implant and increasing risk again after 9-12 months. Management of modifiable risk factors may reduce stroke and mortality rates. Copyright © 2017 International Society for Heart and Lung Transplantation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Use of surveillance data for prevention of healthcare-associated infection: risk adjustment and reporting dilemmas.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    O'Neill, Eoghan

    2009-08-01

    Healthcare-associated or nosocomial infection (HCAI) is of increasing importance to healthcare providers and the public. Surveillance is crucial but must be adjusted for risk, especially when used for interhospital comparisons or for public reporting.

  12. A simple signaling rule for variable life-adjusted display derived from an equivalent risk-adjusted CUSUM chart.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wittenberg, Philipp; Gan, Fah Fatt; Knoth, Sven

    2018-04-17

    The variable life-adjusted display (VLAD) is the first risk-adjusted graphical procedure proposed in the literature for monitoring the performance of a surgeon. It displays the cumulative sum of expected minus observed deaths. It has since become highly popular because the statistic plotted is easy to understand. But it is also easy to misinterpret a surgeon's performance by utilizing the VLAD, potentially leading to grave consequences. The problem of misinterpretation is essentially caused by the variance of the VLAD's statistic that increases with sample size. In order for the VLAD to be truly useful, a simple signaling rule is desperately needed. Various forms of signaling rules have been developed, but they are usually quite complicated. Without signaling rules, making inferences using the VLAD alone is difficult if not misleading. In this paper, we establish an equivalence between a VLAD with V-mask and a risk-adjusted cumulative sum (RA-CUSUM) chart based on the difference between the estimated probability of death and surgical outcome. Average run length analysis based on simulation shows that this particular RA-CUSUM chart has similar performance as compared to the established RA-CUSUM chart based on the log-likelihood ratio statistic obtained by testing the odds ratio of death. We provide a simple design procedure for determining the V-mask parameters based on a resampling approach. Resampling from a real data set ensures that these parameters can be estimated appropriately. Finally, we illustrate the monitoring of a real surgeon's performance using VLAD with V-mask. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  13. Heritability and mortality risk of insomnia-related symptoms: a genetic epidemiologic study in a population-based twin cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hublin, Christer; Partinen, Markku; Koskenvuo, Markku; Kaprio, Jaakko

    2011-07-01

    Our aim was to estimate heritability in phenotypic insomnia and the association between insomnia and mortality. Representative follow-up study. 1990 survey of the Finnish Twin Cohort (N = 12502 adults; 1554 monozygotic and 2991 dizygotic twin pairs). Current insomnia-related symptoms (insomnia in general, difficulty in initiating sleep, sleep latency, nocturnal awakening, early morning awakening, and non-restorative sleep assessed in the morning and during the day) were asked. Latent class analysis was used to classify subjects into different sleep quality classes. Quantitative genetic modelling was used to estimate heritability. Mortality data was obtained from national registers until end of April 2009. The heritability estimates of each symptom were similar in both genders varying from 34% (early morning awakening) to 45% (nocturnal awakening). The most parsimonious latent class analysis produced 3 classes: good sleepers (48%), average sleepers (up to weekly symptoms, 40%), and poor sleepers (symptoms daily or almost daily, 12%). The heritability estimate for the cluster was 46% (95% confidence interval 41% to 50%). In a model adjusted for smoking, BMI, and depressive symptoms, the all-cause mortality of poor sleepers was elevated (excess mortality 55% in men and 51% in women). Further adjustment for sleep length, use of sleep promoting medications, and sleep apnea-related symptoms did not change the results. Insomnia-related symptoms were common in both genders. The symptoms and their clusters showed moderate heritability estimates. A significant association was found between poor sleep and risk of mortality, especially in those with somatic disease.

  14. Performance of Comorbidity, Risk Adjustment, and Functional Status Measures in Expenditure Prediction for Patients With Diabetes

    OpenAIRE

    Maciejewski, Matthew L.; Liu, Chuan-Fen; Fihn, Stephan D.

    2009-01-01

    OBJECTIVE?To compare the ability of generic comorbidity and risk adjustment measures, a diabetes-specific measure, and a self-reported functional status measure to explain variation in health care expenditures for individuals with diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS?This study included a retrospective cohort of 3,092 diabetic veterans participating in a multisite trial. Two comorbidity measures, four risk adjusters, a functional status measure, a diabetes complication count, and baseline ex...

  15. Mortality risk in children with epilepsy : The Dutch Study of Epilepsy in Childhood

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Callenbach, PMC; Westendorp, RGJ; Geerts, AT; Arts, WFM; Peeters, EAJ; van Donselaar, VA; Stroink, H; Brouwer, O.F.

    Objective. Long-term follow-up studies of patients with epilepsy have revealed an increased mortality risk compared with the general population. Mortality of children who have epilepsy in modern times is as yet unknown. Therefore, the objective of this study was to determine mortality of children

  16. Risk Factors for 30-Day Mortality in Patients with Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus Bloodstream Infections

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pedro Ayau

    2017-08-01

    Conclusions: Our study identified significant risk factors for 30-day mortality in patients with MRSA BSI. Interestingly, diabetes mellitus, PVD and readmission were protective effects on 30-day mortality. There was no statistically significant variability in 30-day mortality over the 9-year study period.

  17. Temporal Discounting Is Associated with an Increased Risk of Mortality among Community-Based Older Persons without Dementia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patricia A Boyle

    Full Text Available Temporal discounting is an important determinant of many health and financial outcomes, but we are not aware of studies that have examined the association of temporal discounting with mortality.Participants were 406 older persons without dementia from the Rush Memory and Aging Project, a longitudinal cohort study of aging. Temporal discounting was measured using standard preference elicitation questions. Individual discount rates were estimated using a well-established hyperbolic function and used to predict the risk of mortality during up to 5 years of follow-up.The mean estimate of discounting was 0.45 (SD = 0.33, range: 0.08-0.90, with higher scores indicating a greater propensity to prefer smaller immediate rewards over larger but delayed ones. During up to 5 years of follow-up (mean = 3.6 years, 62 (15% of 406 persons died. In a proportional hazards model adjusted for age, sex, and education, temporal discounting was associated with an increased risk of mortality (HR = 1.103, 95% CI 1.024, 1.190, p = 0.010. Thus, a person with the highest discount rate (score = 0.90 was about twice more likely to die over the study period compared to a person with the lowest discount rate (score = 0.08. Further, the association of discounting with mortality persisted after adjustment for the level of global cognitive function, the burden of vascular risk factors and diseases, and an indicator of psychological well being (i.e., purpose in life.Temporal discounting is associated with an increased risk of mortality in old age after accounting for global cognitive function and indicators of physical and mental health.

  18. Short-term mortality risk of serum potassium levels in acute heart failure following myocardial infarction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krogager, Maria Lukács; Eggers-Kaas, Lotti; Aasbjerg, Kristian

    2015-01-01

    /L, normal potassium 4.3-4.5 mmol/L, high normal potassium 4.6-5.0 mmol/L, mild hyperkalaemia 5.1-5.5 mmol/L, and severe hyperkalaemia: >5.5 mmol/L. Follow-up was 90 days and using normal potassium 3.9-4.2 mmol/L as a reference, we estimated the risk of death with a multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional.......14-3.19], and mild and severe hyperkalaemia (HR: 2, CI: 1.25-3.18 and HR: 5.6, CI: 3.38-9.29, respectively). Low and high normal potassium were also associated with increased mortality (HR: 1.84, CI: 1.23-2.76 and HR: 1.55, CI: 1.09-2.22, respectively). CONCLUSION: Potassium levels outside the interval 3.9-4.5 mmol...

  19. Behavioral Risk Factors: Selected Metropolitan Area Risk Trends (SMART) MMSA Age-adjusted Prevalence Data (2011 to Present)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — 2011 to present. BRFSS SMART MMSA age-adjusted prevalence combined land line and cell phone data. The Selected Metropolitan Area Risk Trends (SMART) project uses the...

  20. Stochastic portfolio specific mortality and the quantification of mortality basis risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Plat, R.

    2009-01-01

    In the last decade a vast literature on stochastic mortality models has been developed. However, these models are often not directly applicable to insurance portfolios because: (a) For insurers and pension funds it is more relevant to model mortality rates measured in insured amounts instead of

  1. The Impact of Abdominal Fat Levels on All-Cause Mortality Risk in Patients Undergoing Hemodialysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Takahiro Yajima

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Although an increased body mass index is associated with lower mortality in patients undergoing hemodialysis (HD, known as the “obesity paradox,” the relationship of abdominal fat levels with all-cause mortality has rarely been studied. We investigated the impact of computed-tomography-measured abdominal fat levels (visceral fat area (VFA and subcutaneous fat area (SFA on all-cause mortality in this population. A total of 201 patients undergoing HD were enrolled and cross-classified by VFA and SFA levels according to each cutoff point, VFA of 78.7 cm2 and SFA of 93.2 cm2, based on the receiver operator characteristic (ROC curve as following; group 1 (G1: lower VFA and lower SFA, G2: higher VFA and lower SFA, G3: lower VFA and higher SFA, G4: higher VFA and higher SFA. During a median follow-up of 4.3 years, 67 patients died. Kaplan–Meier analysis revealed 10-year survival rates of 29.0%, 50.0%, 62.6%, and 72.4% in G1, G2, G3, and G4 (p < 0.0001, respectively. The adjusted hazard ratio was 0.30 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.05–1.09, p = 0.070 for G2 vs. G1, 0.37 (95% CI 0.18–0.76, p = 0.0065 for G3 vs. G1, and 0.21 (95% CI 0.07–0.62, p = 0.0035 for G4 vs. G1, respectively. In conclusion, combined SFA and VFA levels were negatively associated with risks for all-cause mortality in patients undergoing HD. These results are a manifestation of the “obesity paradox.”

  2. Cardiovascular Complications and Short-term Mortality Risk in Community-Acquired Pneumonia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Violi, Francesco; Cangemi, Roberto; Falcone, Marco; Taliani, Gloria; Pieralli, Filippo; Vannucchi, Vieri; Nozzoli, Carlo; Venditti, Mario; Chirinos, Julio A; Corrales-Medina, Vicente F

    2017-06-01

    Previous reports suggest that community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is associated with an enhanced risk of cardiovascular complications. However, a contemporary and comprehensive characterization of this association is lacking. In this multicenter study, 1182 patients hospitalized for CAP were prospectively followed for up to 30 days after their hospitalization for this infection. Study endpoints included myocardial infarction, new or worsening heart failure, atrial fibrillation, stroke, deep venous thrombosis, cardiovascular death, and total mortality. Three hundred eighty (32.2%) patients experienced intrahospital cardiovascular events (CVEs) including 281 (23.8%) with heart failure, 109 (9.2%) with atrial fibrillation, 89 (8%) with myocardial infarction, 11 (0.9%) with ischemic stroke, and 1 (0.1%) with deep venous thrombosis; 28 patients (2.4%) died for cardiovascular causes. Multivariable Cox regression analysis showed that intrahospital Pneumonia Severity Index (PSI) class (hazard ratio [HR], 2.45, P = .027; HR, 4.23, P < .001; HR, 5.96, P < .001, for classes III, IV, and V vs II, respectively), age (HR, 1.02, P = .001), and preexisting heart failure (HR, 1.85, P < .001) independently predicted CVEs. One hundred three (8.7%) patients died by day 30 postadmission. Thirty-day mortality was significantly higher in patients who developed CVEs compared with those who did not (17.6% vs 4.5%, P < .001). Multivariable Cox regression analysis showed that intrahospital CVEs (HR, 5.49, P < .001) independently predicted 30-day mortality (after adjustment for age, PSI score, and preexisting comorbid conditions). CVEs, mainly those confined to the heart, complicate the course of almost one-third of patients hospitalized for CAP. More importantly, the occurrence of CVEs is associated with a 5-fold increase in CAP-associated 30-day mortality. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For

  3. Validation of a new mortality risk prediction model for people 65 years and older in northwest Russia: The Crystal risk score.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turusheva, Anna; Frolova, Elena; Bert, Vaes; Hegendoerfer, Eralda; Degryse, Jean-Marie

    2017-07-01

    Prediction models help to make decisions about further management in clinical practice. This study aims to develop a mortality risk score based on previously identified risk predictors and to perform internal and external validations. In a population-based prospective cohort study of 611 community-dwelling individuals aged 65+ in St. Petersburg (Russia), all-cause mortality risks over 2.5 years follow-up were determined based on the results obtained from anthropometry, medical history, physical performance tests, spirometry and laboratory tests. C-statistic, risk reclassification analysis, integrated discrimination improvement analysis, decision curves analysis, internal validation and external validation were performed. Older adults were at higher risk for mortality [HR (95%CI)=4.54 (3.73-5.52)] when two or more of the following components were present: poor physical performance, low muscle mass, poor lung function, and anemia. If anemia was combined with high C-reactive protein (CRP) and high B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) was added the HR (95%CI) was slightly higher (5.81 (4.73-7.14)) even after adjusting for age, sex and comorbidities. Our models were validated in an external population of adults 80+. The extended model had a better predictive capacity for cardiovascular mortality [HR (95%CI)=5.05 (2.23-11.44)] compared to the baseline model [HR (95%CI)=2.17 (1.18-4.00)] in the external population. We developed and validated a new risk prediction score that may be used to identify older adults at higher risk for mortality in Russia. Additional studies need to determine which targeted interventions improve the outcomes of these at-risk individuals. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Dynapenic Abdominal Obesity Increases Mortality Risk among English and Brazilian Older Adults: A 10-Year Follow-Up of the ELSA and SABE Studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    da Silva Alexandre, T; Scholes, S; Ferreira Santos, J L; de Oliveira Duarte, Y A; de Oliveira, C

    2018-01-01

    There is little epidemiological evidence demonstrating that dynapenic abdominal obesity has higher mortality risk than dynapenia and abdominal obesity alone. Our main aim was to investigate whether dynapenia combined with abdominal obesity increases mortality risk among English and Brazilian older adults over ten-year follow-up. Cohort study. United Kingdom and Brazil. Data came from 4,683 individuals from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) and 1,490 from the Brazilian Health, Well-being and Aging study (SABE), hence the final sample of this study was 6,173 older adults. The study population was categorized into the following groups: non-dynapenic/non-abdominal obese, abdominal obese, dynapenic, and dynapenic abdominal obese according to their handgrip strength ( 102 cm for men and > 88 cm for women). The outcome was all-cause mortality over a ten-year follow-up. Adjusted hazard ratios by sociodemographic, behavioural and clinical characteristics were estimated using Cox proportional hazards models. The fully adjusted model showed that dynapenic abdominal obesity has a higher mortality risk among the groups. The hazard ratios (HR) were 1.37 for dynapenic abdominal obesity (95% CI = 1.12 - 1.68), 1.15 for abdominal obesity (95% CI = 0.98 - 1.35), and 1.23 for dynapenia (95% CI = 1.04 - 1.45). Dynapenia is an important risk factor for mortality but dynapenic abdominal obesity has the highest mortality risk among English and Brazilian older adults.

  5. Sperm competition risk drives rapid ejaculate adjustments mediated by seminal fluid.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartlett, Michael J; Steeves, Tammy E; Gemmell, Neil J; Rosengrave, Patrice C

    2017-10-31

    In many species, males can make rapid adjustments to ejaculate performance in response to sperm competition risk; however, the mechanisms behind these changes are not understood. Here, we manipulate male social status in an externally fertilising fish, chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ), and find that in less than 48 hr, males can upregulate sperm velocity when faced with an increased risk of sperm competition. Using a series of in vitro sperm manipulation and competition experiments, we show that rapid changes in sperm velocity are mediated by seminal fluid and the effect of seminal fluid on sperm velocity directly impacts paternity share and therefore reproductive success. These combined findings, completely consistent with sperm competition theory, provide unequivocal evidence that sperm competition risk drives plastic adjustment of ejaculate quality, that seminal fluid harbours the mechanism for the rapid adjustment of sperm velocity and that fitness benefits accrue to males from such adjustment.

  6. Development and Validation of the Nursing Home Minimum Data Set 3.0 Mortality Risk Score (MRS3).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Kali S; Ogarek, Jessica A; Teno, Joan M; Gozalo, Pedro L; Mor, Vincent

    2018-03-05

    To develop a score to predict mortality using the Minimum Data Set 3.0 (MDS 3.0) that can be readily calculated from items collected during nursing home (NH) residents' admission assessments. We developed a training cohort of Medicare beneficiaries newly admitted to U.S. NHs during 2012 (N=1,426,815) and a testing cohort from 2013 (N=1,160,964). Data came from the MDS 3.0 assessments linked to the Medicare Beneficiary Summary File. Using the training dataset, we developed a composite MDS 3.0 Mortality Risk Score (MRS3) consisting of 17 clinical items and patients' age groups based on their relation to 30-day mortality. We assessed the calibration and discrimination of the MRS3 in predicting 30-day and 60-day mortality and compared its performance to the Charlson Comorbidity Index and the clinician's assessment of 6-month prognosis measured at admission. The 30-day and 60-day mortality rate for the testing population was 2.8% and 5.6%, respectively. Results from logistic regression models suggest that the MRS3 performed well in predicting death within 30 and 60 days (C-Statistics of 0.744 (95%CL = 0.741, 0.747) and 0.709 (95%CL=0.706, 0.711), respectively). The MRS3 was a superior predictor of mortality compared to the Charlson Comorbidity Index (C-statistics of 0.611 (95%CL=0.607, 0.615) and 0.608 (95%CL=0.605, 0.610)) and the clinicians' assessments of patients' 6-month prognoses (C-statistics of 0.543 (95%CL=0.542, 0.545) and 0.528 (95%CL=0.527, 0.529). The MRS3 is a good predictor of mortality and can be useful in guiding decision-making, informing plans of care, and adjusting for patients' risk of mortality.

  7. Comparison of three contemporary risk scores for mortality following elective abdominal aortic aneurysm repair.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grant, S W; Hickey, G L; Carlson, E D; McCollum, C N

    2014-07-01

    A number of contemporary risk prediction models for mortality following elective abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair have been developed. Before a model is used either in clinical practice or to risk-adjust surgical outcome data it is important that its performance is assessed in external validation studies. The British Aneurysm Repair (BAR) score, Medicare, and Vascular Governance North West (VGNW) models were validated using an independent prospectively collected sample of multicentre clinical audit data. Consecutive, data on 1,124 patients undergoing elective AAA repair at 17 hospitals in the north-west of England and Wales between April 2011 and March 2013 were analysed. The outcome measure was in-hospital mortality. Model calibration (observed to expected ratio with chi-square test, calibration plots, calibration intercept and slope) and discrimination (area under receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC]) were assessed in the overall cohort and procedural subgroups. The mean age of the population was 74.4 years (SD 7.7); 193 (17.2%) patients were women and the majority of patients (759, 67.5%) underwent endovascular aneurysm repair. All three models demonstrated good calibration in the overall cohort and procedural subgroups. Overall discrimination was excellent for the BAR score (AUC 0.83, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.76-0.89), and acceptable for the Medicare and VGNW models, with AUCs of 0.78 (95% CI 0.70-0.86) and 0.75 (95% CI 0.65-0.84) respectively. Only the BAR score demonstrated good discrimination in procedural subgroups. All three models demonstrated good calibration and discrimination for the prediction of in-hospital mortality following elective AAA repair and are potentially useful. The BAR score has a number of advantages, which include being developed on the most contemporaneous data, excellent overall discrimination, and good performance in procedural subgroups. Regular model validations and recalibration will be essential. Copyright

  8. Androgen Deprivation Therapy Use in the Setting of High-dose Radiation Therapy and the Risk of Prostate Cancer–Specific Mortality Stratified by the Extent of Competing Mortality

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rose, Brent S., E-mail: brose44@gmail.com [Harvard Radiation Oncology Program, Brigham and Women' s Hospital/Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); Chen, Ming-Hui; Wu, Jing [Department of Statistics, University of Connecticut, Storrs, Connecticut (United States); Braccioforte, Michelle H.; Moran, Brian J. [Prostate Cancer Foundation of Chicago, Westmont, Illinois (United States); Doseretz, Daniel E.; Katin, Michael J.; Ross, Rudolf H.; Salenius, Sharon A. [21st Century Oncology, Inc, Fort Myers, Florida (United States); D' Amico, Anthony V. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Brigham and Women' s Hospital/Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, Boston, Massachusetts (United States)

    2016-11-15

    Purpose: The addition of androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) to radiation therapy (RT) is the standard of care for men with intermediate- and high-risk prostate cancer (PC). However, whether competing mortality (CM) affects the ability of ADT to improve, survival remains unanswered. Methods and Materials: We calculated a CM risk score using a Fine-Gray semiparametric model that included age and cardiometabolic comorbidities from a cohort of 17,669 men treated with high-dose RT with or without supplemental ADT for nonmetastatic PC. Fine and Gray competing risk regression analysis was used to assess whether ADT reduced the risk of PC-specific mortality for men with a low versus a high risk of CM among the 4550 patients within the intermediate- and high-risk cohort after adjustment for established PC prognostic factors, year of treatment, site, and ADT propensity score. Results: After a median follow-up of 8.4 years, 1065 men had died, 89 (8.36%) of PC. Among the men with a low CM score, ADT use was associated with a significant reduction in the risk of PC-specific mortality (adjusted hazard ratio 0.35, 95% confidence interval 0.14-0.87, P=.02) but was not for men with high CM (adjusted hazard ratio 1.33, 95% confidence interval 0.77-2.30, P=.30). Conclusions: Adding ADT to high-dose RT appears to be associated with decreased PC-specific mortality risk in men with a low but not a high CM score. These data should serve to heighten awareness about the importance of considering competing risks when determining whether to add ADT to RT for older men with intermediate- or high-risk PC.

  9. Androgen Deprivation Therapy Use in the Setting of High-dose Radiation Therapy and the Risk of Prostate Cancer–Specific Mortality Stratified by the Extent of Competing Mortality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rose, Brent S.; Chen, Ming-Hui; Wu, Jing; Braccioforte, Michelle H.; Moran, Brian J.; Doseretz, Daniel E.; Katin, Michael J.; Ross, Rudolf H.; Salenius, Sharon A.; D'Amico, Anthony V.

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The addition of androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) to radiation therapy (RT) is the standard of care for men with intermediate- and high-risk prostate cancer (PC). However, whether competing mortality (CM) affects the ability of ADT to improve, survival remains unanswered. Methods and Materials: We calculated a CM risk score using a Fine-Gray semiparametric model that included age and cardiometabolic comorbidities from a cohort of 17,669 men treated with high-dose RT with or without supplemental ADT for nonmetastatic PC. Fine and Gray competing risk regression analysis was used to assess whether ADT reduced the risk of PC-specific mortality for men with a low versus a high risk of CM among the 4550 patients within the intermediate- and high-risk cohort after adjustment for established PC prognostic factors, year of treatment, site, and ADT propensity score. Results: After a median follow-up of 8.4 years, 1065 men had died, 89 (8.36%) of PC. Among the men with a low CM score, ADT use was associated with a significant reduction in the risk of PC-specific mortality (adjusted hazard ratio 0.35, 95% confidence interval 0.14-0.87, P=.02) but was not for men with high CM (adjusted hazard ratio 1.33, 95% confidence interval 0.77-2.30, P=.30). Conclusions: Adding ADT to high-dose RT appears to be associated with decreased PC-specific mortality risk in men with a low but not a high CM score. These data should serve to heighten awareness about the importance of considering competing risks when determining whether to add ADT to RT for older men with intermediate- or high-risk PC.

  10. Risk Factors Associated with Mortality and Increased Drug Costs in Nonvariceal Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Mingliang; Sun, Gang; Zhang, Xiu-li; Zhang, Xiao-mei; Liu, Qing-sen; Huang, Qi-yang; Lau, James W Y; Yang, Yun-sheng

    2015-06-01

    To determine risk factors associated with mortality and increased drug costs in patients with nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding. We retrospectively analyzed data from patients hospitalized with nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding between January 2001-December 2011. Demographic and clinical characteristics and drug costs were documented. Univariate analysis determined possible risk factors for mortality. Statistically significant variables were analyzed using a logistic regression model. Multiple linear regression analyzed factors influencing drug costs. p study included data from 627 patients. Risk factors associated with increased mortality were age > 60, systolic blood pressurebleeding rate is 11.20% and mortality is 5.74%. The mortality risk in patients with comorbidities was higher than in patients without comorbidities, and was higher in patients requiring blood transfusion than in patients not requiring transfusion. Rebleeding was associ-ated with mortality. Rebleeding, blood transfusion, and prolonged hospital stay were associated with increased drug costs, whereas bleeding from lesions in the esophagus and duodenum was associated with lower drug costs.

  11. Increased Cancer Mortality Risk for NASA's ISS Astronauts: The Contribution of Diagnostic Radiological Examinations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dodge, C.W.; Picco, C. E.; Gonzalez, S. M.; Johnston, S. L.; Van Baalen, M.; Shavers, M.R.

    2009-01-01

    This viewgraph presentation reviews the radiation exposures and risks associated with long-term spaceflight on the International Space Station. NASA's risk model of cancer mortality is also presented.

  12. Lower Education Level Is a Risk Factor for Peritonitis and Technique Failure but Not a Risk for Overall Mortality in Peritoneal Dialysis under Comprehensive Training System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Hyo Jin; Lee, Joongyub; Park, Miseon; Kim, Yuri; Lee, Hajeong; Kim, Dong Ki; Joo, Kwon Wook; Kim, Yon Su; Cho, Eun Jin; Ahn, Curie; Oh, Kook-Hwan

    2017-01-01

    Lower education level could be a risk factor for higher peritoneal dialysis (PD)-associated peritonitis, potentially resulting in technique failure. This study evaluated the influence of lower education level on the development of peritonitis, technique failure, and overall mortality. Patients over 18 years of age who started PD at Seoul National University Hospital between 2000 and 2012 with information on the academic background were enrolled. Patients were divided into three groups: middle school or lower (academic year≤9, n = 102), high school (912, n = 324). Outcomes were analyzed using Cox proportional hazards models and competing risk regression. A total of 655 incident PD patients (60.9% male, age 48.4±14.1 years) were analyzed. During follow-up for 41 (interquartile range, 20-65) months, 255 patients (38.9%) experienced more than one episode of peritonitis, 138 patients (21.1%) underwent technique failure, and 78 patients (11.9%) died. After adjustment, middle school or lower education group was an independent risk factor for peritonitis (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 1.61; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.10-2.36; P = 0.015) and technique failure (adjusted HR, 1.87; 95% CI, 1.10-3.18; P = 0.038), compared with higher than high school education group. However, lower education was not associated with increased mortality either by as-treated (adjusted HR, 1.11; 95% CI, 0.53-2.33; P = 0.788) or intent-to-treat analysis (P = 0.726). Although lower education was a significant risk factor for peritonitis and technique failure, it was not associated with increased mortality in PD patients. Comprehensive training and multidisciplinary education may overcome the lower education level in PD.

  13. Association of the polygenic risk score for schizophrenia with mortality and suicidal behavior - A Danish population-based study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laursen, Thomas M; Trabjerg, Betina B; Mors, Ole; Børglum, Anders D; Hougaard, David M; Mattheisen, Manuel; Meier, Sandra M; Byrne, Enda M; Mortensen, Preben B; Munk-Olsen, Trine; Agerbo, Esben

    2017-06-01

    It is unknown whether an increased genetic liability to schizophrenia influences the risk of dying early. The aim of the study was to determine whether the genetic predisposition to schizophrenia is associated with the risk of dying early and experience a suicide attempt. Case control study, Denmark. The main measure was the mortality rate ratios (MRR) for deaths and odds ratios (OR) for multiple suicide attempts, associated with one standard deviations increase of the polygenic risk-score for schizophrenia (PRS). We replicated the high mortality MRR=9.01 (95% CI: 3.56-22.80), and high risk of multiple suicide attempts OR=33.16 (95% CI: 20.97-52.43) associated with schizophrenia compared to the general population. However, there was no effect of the PRS on mortality MRR=1.00 (95% CI 0.71-1.40) in the case-control setup or in cases only, MRR=1.05 (95% CI 0.73-1.51). Similar, no association between the PRS and multiple suicide attempts was found in the adjusted models, but in contrast, family history of mental disorders was associated with both outcomes. A genetic predisposition for schizophrenia, measured by PRS, has little influence on the excess mortality or the risk of suicide attempts. In contrast there is a strong significant effect of family history of mental disorders. Our findings could reflect that the common variants detected by recent PRS only explain a small proportion of risk of schizophrenia, and that future, more powerful PRS instruments may be able to predict excess mortality within this disorder. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. A method to adjust radiation dose-response relationships for clinical risk factors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Appelt, Ane Lindegaard; Vogelius, Ivan R

    2012-01-01

    Several clinical risk factors for radiation induced toxicity have been identified in the literature. Here, we present a method to quantify the effect of clinical risk factors on radiation dose-response curves and apply the method to adjust the dose-response for radiation pneumonitis for patients...

  15. Insulin sensitivity and mortality risk estimation in patients with type 2 ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: There is at present the dearth of information on the possible contribution of insulin resistance to scores obtained from mortality risk estimation in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Aim: This study determined the mortality risk scores in patients with T2DM and its relationship with insulin resistance.

  16. An internationally generalizable risk index for mortality after one year of antiretroviral therapy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tate, Janet P.; Justice, Amy C.; Hughes, Michael D.; Bonnet, Fabrice; Reiss, Peter; Mocroft, Amanda; Nattermann, Jacob; Lampe, Fiona C.; Bucher, Heiner C.; Sterling, Timothy R.; Crane, Heidi M.; Kitahata, Mari M.; May, Margaret; Sterne, Jonathan A. C.

    2013-01-01

    Despite the success of antiretroviral therapy (ART), excess mortality continues for those with HIV infection. A comprehensive approach to risk assessment, addressing multiorgan system injury on ART, is needed. We sought to develop and validate a practical and generalizable mortality risk index for

  17. Adjusting for overdispersion in piecewise exponential regression models to estimate excess mortality rate in population-based research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luque-Fernandez, Miguel Angel; Belot, Aurélien; Quaresma, Manuela; Maringe, Camille; Coleman, Michel P; Rachet, Bernard

    2016-10-01

    In population-based cancer research, piecewise exponential regression models are used to derive adjusted estimates of excess mortality due to cancer using the Poisson generalized linear modelling framework. However, the assumption that the conditional mean and variance of the rate parameter given the set of covariates x i are equal is strong and may fail to account for overdispersion given the variability of the rate parameter (the variance exceeds the mean). Using an empirical example, we aimed to describe simple methods to test and correct for overdispersion. We used a regression-based score test for overdispersion under the relative survival framework and proposed different approaches to correct for overdispersion including a quasi-likelihood, robust standard errors estimation, negative binomial regression and flexible piecewise modelling. All piecewise exponential regression models showed the presence of significant inherent overdispersion (p-value regression modelling, with either a quasi-likelihood or robust standard errors, was the best approach as it deals with both, overdispersion due to model misspecification and true or inherent overdispersion.

  18. Community Level Risk Factors for Maternal Mortality in Madagascar ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Previous work in this area uses individual or cross-country data to study maternal mortality, however, studying maternal mortality at the community level is imperative because this is the level at which most policy is implemented. The results show that longer travel time from the community to the hospital leads to a high level ...

  19. BMI and Lifetime Changes in BMI and Cancer Mortality Risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Taghizadeh, Niloofar; Boezen, H Marike; Schouten, Jan P; Schröder, Carolien P; de Vries, Elisabeth G. E.; Vonk, Judith M

    2015-01-01

    Body Mass Index (BMI) is known to be associated with cancer mortality, but little is known about the link between lifetime changes in BMI and cancer mortality in both males and females. We studied the association of BMI measurements (at baseline, highest and lowest BMI during the study-period) and

  20. Risk adjustment and the fear of markets: the case of Belgium.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schokkaert, E; Van de Voorde, C

    2000-02-01

    In Belgium the management and administration of the compulsory and universal health insurance is left to a limited number of non-governmental non-profit sickness funds. Since 1995 these sickness funds are partially financed in a prospective way. The risk adjustment scheme is based on a regression model to explain medical expenditures for different social groups. Medical supply is taken out of the formula to construct risk-adjusted capitation payments. The risk-adjustment formula still leaves scope for risk selection. At the same time, the sickness funds were not given the instruments to exert a real influence on expenditures and the health insurance market has not been opened for new entrants. As a consequence, Belgium runs the danger of ending up in a situation with little incentives for efficiency and considerable profits from cream skimming.

  1. The risk mortality of the population of azerbaijan from circulatory diseases, depending on the season

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. J. Rzayeva

    2015-06-01

    Azerbaijan State Advanced Training Institute for doctors named after A. Aliyev, Baku   ABSTRACT The Objective.  To obtain evidence-based data about the role of seasons of the year in the formation of the population mortality risk from the circulatory system diseases  (CSD in Azerbaijan and its regions with specific climate. Materials of the study. A case of mortality was a unit of statistical observation. The fatalities from all reasons, including CSD have been distributed by the days of every month in the year. Daily average amount of fatalities by months and seasons ( from 20 December to 19 March – winter; from 20 March to 19 June- spring; from 20 June to 16 September; from 20 September to 19 December - autumn have been determined. Results.  In Azerbaijan the risk of general mortality and mortality from CSD is the highest in winter, it decreases in spring but nonuniformly (the general mortality rate is less than that from CSD. That is why the share of CSD increases among mortality reasons. Conclusions. Seasonal change of mortality risks from CSD is multivariant. Winter-spring increase of risk predominates in Azerbaijan. In some regions of Azerbaijan the mortality risk from CSD increases only once either in spring or in summer or winter. Key words: seasonal dynamics, risk of mortality, circulatory system diseases.

  2. GT-repeat polymorphism in the heme oxygenase-1 gene promoter is associated with cardiovascular mortality risk in an arsenic-exposed population in northeastern Taiwan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Meei-Maan; Chiou, Hung-Yi; Chen, Chi-Ling; Wang, Yuan-Hung; Hsieh, Yi-Chen; Lien, Li-Ming; Lee, Te-Chang; Chen, Chien-Jen

    2010-01-01

    Inorganic arsenic has been associated with increased risk of atherosclerotic vascular disease and mortality in humans. A functional GT-repeat polymorphism in the heme oxygenase-1 (HO-1) gene promoter is inversely correlated with the development of coronary artery disease and restenosis after clinical angioplasty. The relationship of HO-1 genotype with arsenic-associated cardiovascular disease has not been studied. In this study, we evaluated the relationship between the HO-1 GT-repeat polymorphism and cardiovascular mortality in an arsenic-exposed population. A total of 504 study participants were followed up for a median of 10.7 years for occurrence of cardiovascular deaths (coronary heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, and peripheral arterial disease). Cardiovascular risk factors and DNA samples for determination of HO-1 GT repeats were obtained at recruitment. GT repeats variants were grouped into the S (< 27 repeats) or L allele (≥ 27 repeats). Relative mortality risk was estimated using Cox regression analysis, adjusted for competing risk of cancer and other causes. For the L/L, L/S, and S/S genotype groups, the crude mortalities for cardiovascular disease were 8.42, 3.10, and 2.85 cases/1000 person-years, respectively. After adjusting for conventional cardiovascular risk factors and competing risk of cancer and other causes, carriers with class S allele (L/S or S/S genotypes) had a significantly reduced risk of cardiovascular mortality compared to non-carriers (L/L genotype) [OR, 0.38; 95% CI, 0.16-0.90]. In contrast, no significant association was observed between HO-1 genotype and cancer mortality or mortality from other causes. Shorter (GT)n repeats in the HO-1 gene promoter may confer protective effects against cardiovascular mortality related to arsenic exposure.

  3. Perceived extrinsic mortality risk and reported effort in looking after health: testing a behavioral ecological prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pepper, Gillian V; Nettle, Daniel

    2014-09-01

    Socioeconomic gradients in health behavior are pervasive and well documented. Yet, there is little consensus on their causes. Behavioral ecological theory predicts that, if people of lower socioeconomic position (SEP) perceive greater personal extrinsic mortality risk than those of higher SEP, they should disinvest in their future health. We surveyed North American adults for reported effort in looking after health, perceived extrinsic and intrinsic mortality risks, and measures of SEP. We examined the relationships between these variables and found that lower subjective SEP predicted lower reported health effort. Lower subjective SEP was also associated with higher perceived extrinsic mortality risk, which in turn predicted lower reported health effort. The effect of subjective SEP on reported health effort was completely mediated by perceived extrinsic mortality risk. Our findings indicate that perceived extrinsic mortality risk may be a key factor underlying SEP gradients in motivation to invest in future health.

  4. Balancing the risks and benefits of drinking water disinfection: disability adjusted life-years on the scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Havelaar, A H; De Hollander, A E; Teunis, P F; Evers, E G; Van Kranen, H J; Versteegh, J F; Van Koten, J E; Slob, W

    2000-04-01

    To evaluate the applicability of disability adjusted life-years (DALYs) as a measure to compare positive and negative health effects of drinking water disinfection, we conducted a case study involving a hypothetical drinking water supply from surface water. This drinking water supply is typical in The Netherlands. We compared the reduction of the risk of infection with Cryptosporidium parvum by ozonation of water to the concomitant increase in risk of renal cell cancer arising from the production of bromate. We applied clinical, epidemiologic, and toxicologic data on morbidity and mortality to calculate the net health benefit in DALYs. We estimated the median risk of infection with C. parvum as 10(-3)/person-year. Ozonation reduces the median risk in the baseline approximately 7-fold, but bromate is produced in a concentration above current guideline levels. However, the health benefits of preventing gastroenteritis in the general population and premature death in patients with acquired immunodeficiency syndrome outweigh health losses by premature death from renal cell cancer by a factor of > 10. The net benefit is approximately 1 DALY/million person-years. The application of DALYs in principle allows us to more explicitly compare the public health risks and benefits of different management options. In practice, the application of DALYs may be hampered by the substantial degree of uncertainty, as is typical for risk assessment.

  5. Mortality after percutaneous coronary revascularization: Prior cardiovascular risk factor control and improved outcomes in patients with diabetes mellitus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noman, Awsan; Balasubramaniam, Karthik; Alhous, M Hafez A; Lee, Kelvin; Jesudason, Peter; Rashid, Muhammad; Mamas, Mamas A; Zaman, Azfar G

    2017-06-01

    To assess the mortality in patients with diabetes mellitus (DM) following percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) according to their insulin requirement and PCI setting (elective, urgent, and emergency). DM is a major risk factor to develop coronary artery disease (CAD). It is unclear if meticulous glycemic control and aggressive risk factor management in patients with DM has improved outcomes following PCI. Retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data on 9,224 patients treated with PCI at a regional tertiary center between 2008 and 2011. About 7,652 patients were nondiabetics (non-DM), 1,116 had non-insulin treated diabetes mellitus (NITDM) and 456 had ITDM. Multi-vessel coronary artery disease, renal impairment and non-coronary vascular disease were more prevalent in DM patients. Overall 30-day mortality rate was 2.4%. In a logistic regression model, the adjusted odds ratios (95% confidence intervals [CI]) for 30-day mortality were 1.28 (0.81-2.03, P = 0.34) in NITDM and 2.82 (1.61-4.94, P diabetes, this study reveals higher mortality only in insulin-treated diabetic patients following PCI for stable coronary artery disease and acute coronary syndrome. Importantly, diabetic patients with good risk factor control and managed on diet or oral hypoglycemics have similar outcomes to the non-diabetic population. © 2016 The Authors Catheterization and Cardiovascular Interventions Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 The Authors Catheterization and Cardiovascular Interventions Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  6. The Experience of Risk-Adjusted Capitation Payment for Family Physicians in Iran: A Qualitative Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esmaeili, Reza; Hadian, Mohammad; Rashidian, Arash; Shariati, Mohammad; Ghaderi, Hossien

    2016-04-01

    When a country's health system is faced with fundamental flaws that require the redesign of financing and service delivery, primary healthcare payment systems are often reformed. This study was conducted with the purpose of exploring the experiences of risk-adjusted capitation payment of urban family physicians in Iran when it comes to providing primary health care (PHC). This is a qualitative study using the framework method. Data were collected via digitally audio-recorded semi-structured interviews with 24 family physicians and 5 executive directors in two provinces of Iran running the urban family physician pilot program. The participants were selected using purposive and snowball sampling. The codes were extracted using inductive and deductive methods. Regarding the effects of risk-adjusted capitation on the primary healthcare setting, five themes with 11 subthemes emerged, including service delivery, institutional structure, financing, people's behavior, and the challenges ahead. Our findings indicated that the health system is enjoying some major changes in the primary healthcare setting through the implementation of risk-adjusted capitation payment. With regard to the current challenges in Iran's health system, using risk-adjusted capitation as a primary healthcare payment system can lead to useful changes in the health system's features. However, future research should focus on the development of the risk-adjusted capitation model.

  7. Acute respiratory failure in Pakistani patients: risk factors associated with mortality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hussain, S.F.; Irfan, M.; Naqi, Y.S.; Islam, M.; Akhtar, W.

    2006-01-01

    Objective: To assess the outcome and risk factors associated with mortality in patients with acute respiratory failure (ARF). Design: Observational study. Place and Duration of Study: The Aga Khan University Hospital, Karachi, between January 1997 and June 2001. Patients and Methods: All adult patients admitted with a medical cause of acute respiratory failure were reviewed. The primary outcome measure was mortality and secondary outcome measures were factors associated with mortality in ARF. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to identify the independent risk factors for mortality. Results: A total of 270 patients were admitted with ARF. Hypercapnic respiratory failure was seen in 186 (69%) and hypoxemic in 84 (31%) cases. Pneumonia and COPD exacerbation were the most common underlying causes of ARF. Ventilator support was required in 93 (34.4%) patients. Hospital mortality was 28%. Chronic renal failure, malignancy, hypokalemia, severe acidosis (pH <7.25), septicemia and ARDS independently correlated with mortality. Mortality rate increased sharply (84%) with the presence of three or more risk factors. Conclusion: Acute respiratory failure has a high mortality rate (28%). Development of ARDS or septicemia was associated with high mortality. Presence of more than one risk factor significantly increased the mortality rate. (author)

  8. Opium use and risk of mortality from digestive diseases: a prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malekzadeh, Masoud M; Khademi, Hooman; Pourshams, Akram; Etemadi, Arash; Poustchi, Hossein; Bagheri, Mohammad; Khoshnia, Masoud; Sohrabpour, Amir Ali; Aliasgari, Ali; Jafari, Elham; Islami, Farhad; Semnani, Shahryar; Abnet, Christian C; Pharoah, Paul D P; Brennan, Paul; Boffetta, Paolo; Dawsey, Sanford M; Malekzadeh, Reza; Kamangar, Farin

    2013-11-01

    Opium use, particularly in low doses, is a common practice among adults in northeastern Iran. We aimed to investigate the association between opium use and subsequent mortality from disorders of the digestive tract. We used data from the Golestan Cohort Study, a prospective cohort study in northeastern Iran, with detailed, validated data on opium use and several other exposures. A total of 50,045 adults were enrolled during a 4-year period (2004-2008) and followed annually until December 2012, with a follow-up success rate of 99%. We used Cox proportional hazard regression models to evaluate the association between opium use and outcomes of interest. In all, 8,487 (17%) participants reported opium use, with a mean duration of 12.7 years. During the follow-up period 474 deaths from digestive diseases were reported (387 due to gastrointestinal cancers and 87 due to nonmalignant etiologies). Opium use was associated with an increased risk of death from any digestive disease (adjusted hazard ratio (HR)=1.55, 95% confidence interval (CI)=1.24-1.93). The association was dose dependent, with a HR of 2.21 (1.57-3.31) for the highest quintile of cumulative opium use vs. no use (Ptrend=0.037). The HRs (95% CI) for the associations between opium use and malignant and nonmalignant causes of digestive mortality were 1.38 (1.07-1.76) and 2.60 (1.57-4.31), respectively. Increased risks were seen both for smoking opium and for ingestion of opium. Long-term opium use, even in low doses, is associated with increased risk of death from both malignant and nonmalignant digestive diseases.

  9. Opium Use and Risk of Mortality from Digestive Diseases -- A Prospective Cohort Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malekzadeh, Masoud M.; Khademi, Hooman; Pourshams, Akram; Etemadi, Arash; Poustchi, Hossein; Bagheri, Mohammad; Khoshnia, Masoud; Sohrabpour, Amir Ali; Aliasgari, Ali; Jafari, Elham; Islami, Farhad; Semnani, Shahryar; Abnet, Christian C.; Pharoah, Paul DP.; Brennan, Paul; Boffetta, Paolo; Dawsey, Sanford M.; Malekzadeh, Reza; Kamangar, Farin

    2017-01-01

    Background Opium use, particularly in low doses, is a common practice among adults in northeastern Iran. We aimed to investigate the association between opium use and subsequent mortality from disorders of the digestive tract. Methods We used data from the Golestan Cohort Study (GCS), a prospective cohort study in northeastern Iran, with detailed, validated data on opium use and several other exposures. A total of 50,045 adults were enrolled during a four-year period (2004–2008) and followed annually until December 2012, with a follow-up success rate of 99%. We used Cox proportional hazard regression models to evaluate the association between opium use and outcomes of interest. Results 8,487 (17%) participants reported opium use, with a mean duration of 12.7 years. During the follow-up period 474 deaths from digestive diseases were reported (387 due to gastrointestinal cancers and 87 due to nonmalignant etiologies). Opium use was associated with an increased risk of death from any digestive disease (adjusted hazard ratio (HR) = 1.55, 95% CI 1.24 – 1.93). The association was dose-dependent, with a HR of 2.21 (1.57–3.31) for the highest quintile of cumulative opium use vs. no use (Ptrend = 0.037). The hazard ratios (95% CI) for the associations between opium use and malignant and nonmalignant causes of digestive mortality were 1.38 (1.07 – 1.76) and 2.60 (1.57 – 4.31), respectively. Increased risks were seen both for smoking opium and for ingestion of opium. Conclusion Long-term opium use, even in low doses, is associated with increased risk of death from both malignant and nonmalignant digestive diseases. PMID:24145676

  10. Mortality and morbidity risks vary with birth weight standard deviation score in growth restricted extremely preterm infants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamakawa, Takuji; Itabashi, Kazuo; Kusuda, Satoshi

    2016-01-01

    To assess whether the mortality and morbidity risks vary with birth weight standard deviation score (BWSDS) in growth restricted extremely preterm infants. This was a multicenter retrospective cohort study using the database of the Neonatal Research Network of Japan and including 9149 infants born between 2003 and 2010 at <28 weeks gestation. According to the BWSDSs, the infants were classified as: <-2.0, -2.0 to -1.5, -1.5 to -1.0, -1.0 to -0.5, and ≥-0.5. Infants with BWSDS≥-0.5 were defined as non-growth restricted group. After adjusting for covariates, the risks of mortality and some morbidities were different among the BWSDS groups. Compared with non-growth restricted group, the adjusted odds ratio (aOR) for mortality [aOR, 1.69; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.35-2.12] and chronic lung disease (CLD) (aOR, 1.28; 95% CI, 1.07-1.54) were higher among the infants with BWSDS -1.5 to <-1.0. The aOR for severe retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) (aOR, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.09-1.71) and sepsis (aOR, 1.72; 95% CI, 1.32-2.24) were higher among the infants with BWSDS -2.0 to <-1.5. The aOR for necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) (aOR, 2.41; 95% CI, 1.64-3.55) was increased at a BWSDS<-2.0. Being growth restricted extremely preterm infants confer additional risks for mortality and morbidities such as CLD, ROP, sepsis and NEC, and these risks may vary with BWSDS. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Comparative risk of renal, cardiovascular, and mortality outcomes in controlled, uncontrolled resistant, and non-resistant hypertension

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sim, John J.; Bhandari, Simran K.; Shi, Jiaxiao; Reynolds, Kristi; Calhoun, David A.; Kalantar-Zadeh, Kamyar; Jacobsen, Steven J.

    2015-01-01

    We sought to compare the risk of end stage renal disease (ESRD), ischemic heart event (IHE), congestive heart failure (CHF), cerebrovascular accident (CVA), and all-cause mortality among 470,386 individuals with resistant and nonresistant hypertension (non-RH). Resistant hypertension (60,327 individuals) was sub-categorized into 2 groups; 23,104 patients with cRH (controlled on 4 or more medicines) and 37,223 patients with uRH (uncontrolled on 3 or more medicines) in a 5 year retrospective cohort study. Cox proportional hazard modeling was used to estimate hazard ratios adjusting for age, gender, race, body mass index, chronic kidney disease (CKD), and co-morbidities. Resistant hypertension (cRH and uRH) compared to non-RH, had multivariable adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) of 1.32 (1.27–1.37), 1.24 (1.20–1.28), 1.46 (1.40–1.52), 1.14 (1.10–1.19), and 1.06 (1.03–1.08) for ESRD, IHE, CHF, CVA, and mortality, respectively. Comparison of uRH to cRH had hazard ratios of 1.25 (1.18–1.33), 1.04 (0.99–1.10), 0.94 (0.89–1.01), 1.23 (1.14–1.31), and 1.01 (0.97–1.05) for ESRD, IHE, CHF, CVA, and mortality, respectively. Males and Hispanics had greater risk for ESRD within all 3 cohorts. Resistant hypertension had greater risk for ESRD, IHE, CHF, CVA, and mortality. The risk of ESRD and CVA and were 25% and 23% greater, respectively, in uRH compared to cRH supporting the linkage between blood pressure and both outcomes. PMID:25945406

  12. Morbidity and mortality risk among patients with screening-detected severe hypertension in the Malmö Preventive Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westerdahl, Christina; Zöller, Bengt; Arslan, Eren; Erdine, Serap; Nilsson, Peter M

    2014-12-01

    Screening of hypertension has been advocated for early detection and treatment. Severe hypertension (grade 3 hypertension) is a strong predictor for cardiovascular disease. This study aimed to evaluate not only the risk factors for developing severe hypertension, but also the prospective morbidity and mortality risk associated with severe hypertension in a population-based screening and intervention programme. In all, 18,200 individuals from a population-based cohort underwent a baseline examination in 1972-1992 and were re-examined in 2002-2006 in Malmö, Sweden. In total, 300 (1.6%) patients with severe hypertension were identified at re-examination, and predictive risk factors from baseline were calculated. Total and cause-specific morbidity and mortality were followed in national registers in all severe hypertension patients, as well as in age and sex-matched normotensive controls. Cox analyses for hazard ratios were used. Men developing severe hypertension differed from matched controls in baseline variables associated with the metabolic syndrome, as well as paternal history of hypertension (P < 0.001). Women with later severe hypertension were characterized by elevated BMI and a positive maternal history for hypertension at baseline. The risk of mortality, coronary events, stroke and diabetes during follow-up was higher among severe hypertension patients compared to controls. For coronary events, the risk remained elevated adjusted for other risk factors [hazard ratio 2.31, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.22-4.40, P = 0.011]. Family history and variables associated with metabolic syndrome are predictors for severe hypertension after a long-term follow-up. Severe hypertension is associated with increased mortality, cardiovascular morbidity and incident diabetes in spite of treatment. This calls for improved risk factor control in patients with severe hypertension.

  13. Response Adjusted for Days of Antibiotic Risk (RADAR): evaluation of a novel method to compare strategies to optimize antibiotic use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schweitzer, V A; van Smeden, M; Postma, D F; Oosterheert, J J; Bonten, M J M; van Werkhoven, C H

    2017-12-01

    The Response Adjusted for Days of Antibiotic Risk (RADAR) statistic was proposed to improve the efficiency of trials comparing antibiotic stewardship strategies to optimize antibiotic use. We studied the behaviour of RADAR in a non-inferiority trial in which a β-lactam monotherapy strategy (n = 656) was non-inferior to fluoroquinolone monotherapy (n = 888) for patients with moderately severe community-acquired pneumonia. Patients were ranked according to clinical outcome, using five or eight categories, and antibiotic use. RADAR was calculated as the probability that the β-lactam group had a more favourable ranking than the fluoroquinolone group. To investigate the sensitivity of RADAR to detrimental clinical outcome we simulated increasing rates of 90-day mortality in the β-lactam group and performed the RADAR and non-inferiority analysis. The RADAR of the β-lactam group compared with the fluoroquinolone group was 60.3% (95% CI 57.9%-62.7%) using five and 58.4% (95% CI 56.0%-60.9%) using eight clinical outcome categories, all in favour of β-lactam. Sample sizes for RADAR were 38% (250/653) and 89% (580/653) of the non-inferiority sample size calculation, using five or eight clinical outcome categories, respectively. With simulated mortality rates, loss of non-inferiority of the β-lactam group occurred at a relative risk of 1.125 in the conventional analysis, whereas using RADAR the β-lactam group lost superiority at a relative risk of mortality of 1.25 and 1.5, with eight and five clinical outcome categories, respectively. RADAR favoured β-lactam over fluoroquinolone therapy for community-acquired pneumonia. Although RADAR required fewer patients than conventional non-inferiority analysis, the statistic was less sensitive to detrimental outcomes. Copyright © 2017 European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Relation of Periodontitis to Risk of Cardiovascular and All-Cause Mortality (from a Danish Nationwide Cohort Study)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Gorm Mørk; Egeberg, Alexander; Holmstrup, Palle

    2016-01-01

    Periodontitis and atherosclerosis are highly prevalent chronic inflammatory diseases, and it has been suggested that periodontitis is an independent risk factor of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and that a causal link may exist between the 2 diseases. Using Danish national registers, we identified...... a nationwide cohort of 17,691 patients who received a hospital diagnosis of periodontitis within a 15-year period and matched them with 83,003 controls from the general population. We performed Poisson regression analysis to determine crude and adjusted incidence rate ratios of myocardial infarction, ischemic...... stroke, cardiovascular death, major adverse cardiovascular events, and all-cause mortality. The results showed that patients with periodontitis were at higher risk of all examined end points. The findings remained significant after adjustment for increased baseline co-morbidity in periodontitis patients...

  15. Impact of influenza vaccination on mortality risk among the elderly

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Groenwold, R. H. H.; Hoes, A. W.; Hak, E.

    Estimates of influenza vaccine effectiveness have mostly been derived from nonrandomised studies and therefore are potentially confounded. The aim of the current study was to estimate influenza vaccine effectiveness in preventing mortality among the elderly, taking both measured and unmeasured

  16. Risk of mortality of node-negative, ER/PR/HER2 breast cancer subtypes in T1, T2, and T3 tumors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parise, Carol A; Caggiano, Vincent

    2017-10-01

    The purpose of this study was to assess differences in breast cancer-specific mortality within tumors of the same size when breast cancer was defined using the three tumor markers estrogen receptor (ER), progesterone receptor (PR), and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2). We identified 104,499 cases of node-negative primary female invasive breast cancer from the California Cancer Registry. Tumor size was categorized as T1a, T1b, T1c, T2, and T3. Breast cancer was defined using ER, PR, and HER2. Kaplan-Meier Survival analysis was conducted and Cox Regression was used to compute the adjusted risk of mortality for the ER+/PR+/HER2+, ER-/PR-/HER2- (TNBC), and ER-/PR-/HER2+ (HER2-overexpressing) subtypes when compared with the ER+/PR+/HER2-. Separate models were computed for each tumor size. Unadjusted survival analysis showed that for all tumor sizes, the ER+/PR+ subtypes regardless of HER status have better breast cancer-specific survival than ER-/PR- subtypes. Subtype was not an important factor for risk of mortality for T1a tumors. The ER+/PR+/HER2+ subtype was only a risk for mortality in T1b tumors that were unadjusted for treatment. For all other tumor sizes, the ER+/PR+/HER2+ had the same mortality as the ER+/PR+/HER2- subtype regardless of adjustment for treatment. The HER2-overexpressing subtype had a higher risk of mortality than the ER+/PR+/HER2- subtype except for T1b tumors that were adjusted for treatment. For all tumor sizes, the TNBC had higher hazard ratios than all other subtypes. T1a tumors have the same risk of mortality regardless of ER/PR/HER2 subtype, and ER and PR negativity plays a stronger role in survival than HER2 positivity for tumors of all size.

  17. Relationships between body mass index, cardiovascular mortality, and risk factors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dudina, Alexandra; Cooney, Marie Therese; Bacquer, Dirk De

    2011-01-01

    Although cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the biggest global cause of death, CVD mortality is falling in developed countries. There is concern that this trend may be offset by increasing levels of obesity.......Although cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the biggest global cause of death, CVD mortality is falling in developed countries. There is concern that this trend may be offset by increasing levels of obesity....

  18. Conference Innovations in Derivatives Market : Fixed Income Modeling, Valuation Adjustments, Risk Management, and Regulation

    CERN Document Server

    Grbac, Zorana; Scherer, Matthias; Zagst, Rudi

    2016-01-01

    This book presents 20 peer-reviewed chapters on current aspects of derivatives markets and derivative pricing. The contributions, written by leading researchers in the field as well as experienced authors from the financial industry, present the state of the art in: • Modeling counterparty credit risk: credit valuation adjustment, debit valuation adjustment, funding valuation adjustment, and wrong way risk. • Pricing and hedging in fixed-income markets and multi-curve interest-rate modeling. • Recent developments concerning contingent convertible bonds, the measuring of basis spreads, and the modeling of implied correlations. The recent financial crisis has cast tremendous doubts on the classical view on derivative pricing. Now, counterparty credit risk and liquidity issues are integral aspects of a prudent valuation procedure and the reference interest rates are represented by a multitude of curves according to their different periods and maturities. A panel discussion included in the book (featuring D...

  19. Beyond preadoptive risk: The impact of adoptive family environment on adopted youth's psychosocial adjustment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ji, Juye; Brooks, Devon; Barth, Richard P; Kim, Hansung

    2010-07-01

    Adopted children often are exposed to preadoptive stressors--such as prenatal substance exposure, child maltreatment, and out-of-home placements--that increase their risks for psychosocial maladjustment. Psychosocial adjustment of adopted children emerges as the product of pre- and postadoptive factors. This study builds on previous research, which fails to simultaneously assess the influences of pre- and postadoptive factors, by examining the impact of adoptive family sense of coherence on adoptee's psychosocial adjustment beyond the effects of preadoptive risks. Using a sample of adoptive families (n = 385) taking part in the California Long Range Adoption Study, structural equation modeling analyses were performed. Results indicate a significant impact of family sense of coherence on adoptees' psychosocial adjustment and a considerably less significant role of preadoptive risks. The findings suggest the importance of assessing adoptive family's ability to respond to stress and of helping families to build and maintain their capacity to cope with stress despite the sometimes fractious pressures of adoption.

  20. Limb/trunk lean mass ratio as a risk factor for mortality in peritoneal dialysis patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seok Hui Kang

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Protein energy wasting (PEW is a common problem in dialysis patients. There have been few reports on the effects of regional lean mass distribution for peritoneal dialysis (PD patients. We reviewed the medical records and identified all adults who received PD between May 2001 and May 2011. Five hundred thirty four patients were enrolled. The clinical and laboratory data were collected at 1 and 12 months. Regional lean masses were measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. The limb/trunk lean mass ratio (LTLM was defined as a value on dividing the sum of four limbs by the trunk lean mass. The mean age at the start of PD was 53.2±14.1 years. Diabetes mellitus (DM was most common underlying disease of end-stage renal disease (49.6%. In males, the low LTLM tertile was associated with low body mass index, creatinine, arm muscle circumference, and high C-reactive protein. In females, the low LTLM tertile was associated with low creatinine and normalized protein equivalent of nitrogen appearance. On both univariate and multivariate analysis adjusted for age, Davies risk index, and residual renal function, initial low LTLM tertile and maintenance of low LTLM were associated with mortality in PD patients. Distribution or change of regional lean mass may be more useful for predicting nutritional status. Initial low LTLM and maintenance of low LTLM were associated with mortality in PD patients. LTLM as a new marker would be useful for predicting the nutritional status and the mortality in patients on PD.

  1. Mortality risk among Black and White working women: the role of perceived work trajectories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shippee, Tetyana P; Rinaldo, Lindsay; Ferraro, Kenneth F

    2012-02-01

    Drawing from cumulative inequality theory, the authors examine the relationship between perceived work trajectories and mortality risk among Black and White women over 36 years. Panel data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Mature Women (1967-2003) are used to evaluate how objective and subjective elements of work shape mortality risk for Black and White women born between 1923 and 1937. Estimates from Cox proportional hazards models reveal that Black working women manifest higher mortality risk than White working women even after accounting for occupation, personal income, and household wealth. Perceived work trajectories were also associated with mortality risk for Black women but not for White women. The findings reveal the imprint of women's work life on mortality, especially for Black women, and illustrate the importance of considering personal meanings associated with objective work characteristics. © The Author(s) 2012

  2. Chewing betel quid and the risk of metabolic disease, cardiovascular disease, and all-cause mortality: a meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamada, Tomohide; Hara, Kazuo; Kadowaki, Takashi

    2013-01-01

    Betel nut (Areca nut) is the fruit of the Areca catechu tree. Approximately 700 million individuals regularly chew betel nut (or betel quid) worldwide and it is a known risk factor for oral cancer and esophageal cancer. We performed a meta-analysis to assess the influence of chewing betel quid on metabolic diseases, cardiovascular disease, and all-cause mortality. We searched Medline, Cochrane Library, Web of Science, and Science Direct for pertinent articles (including the references) published between 1951 and 2013. The adjusted relative risk (RR) and 95% confidence interval were calculated using the random effect model. Sex was used as an independent category for comparison. Of 580 potentially relevant studies, 17 studies from Asia (5 cohort studies and 12 case-control studies) covering 388,134 subjects (range: 94 to 97,244) were selected. Seven studies (N = 121,585) showed significant dose-response relationships between betel quid consumption and the risk of events. According to pooled analysis, the adjusted RR of betel quid chewers vs. non-chewers was 1.47 (PBetel quid chewing is associated with an increased risk of metabolic disease, cardiovascular disease, and all-cause mortality. Thus, in addition to preventing oral cancer, stopping betel quid use could be a valuable public health measure for metabolic diseases that are showing a rapid increase in South-East Asia and the Western Pacific.

  3. The effect of modifiable risk factors on geographic mortality differentials: a modelling study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stevenson Christopher E

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Australian mortality rates are higher in regional and remote areas than in major cities. The degree to which this is driven by variation in modifiable risk factors is unknown. Methods We applied a risk prediction equation incorporating smoking, cholesterol and blood pressure to a national, population based survey to project all-causes mortality risk by geographic region. We then modelled life expectancies at different levels of mortality risk by geographic region using a risk percentiles model. Finally we set high values of each risk factor to a target level and modelled the subsequent shift in the population to lower levels of mortality risk and longer life expectancy. Results Survival is poorer in both Inner Regional and Outer Regional/Remote areas compared to Major Cities for men and women at both high and low levels of predicted mortality risk. For men smoking, high cholesterol and high systolic blood pressure were each associated with the mortality difference between Major Cities and Outer Regional/Remote areas--accounting for 21.4%, 20.3% and 7.7% of the difference respectively. For women smoking and high cholesterol accounted for 29.4% and 24.0% of the difference respectively but high blood pressure did not contribute to the observed mortality differences. The three risk factors taken together accounted for 45.4% (men and 35.6% (women of the mortality difference. The contribution of risk factors to the corresponding differences for inner regional areas was smaller, with only high cholesterol and smoking contributing to the difference in men-- accounting for 8.8% and 6.3% respectively-- and only smoking contributing to the difference in women--accounting for 12.3%. Conclusions These results suggest that health intervention programs aimed at smoking, blood pressure and total cholesterol could have a substantial impact on mortality inequities for Outer Regional/Remote areas.

  4. Health-based risk adjustment: is inpatient and outpatient diagnostic information sufficient?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamers, L M

    Adequate risk adjustment is critical to the success of market-oriented health care reforms in many countries. Currently used risk adjusters based on demographic and diagnostic cost groups (DCGs) do not reflect expected costs accurately. This study examines the simultaneous predictive accuracy of inpatient and outpatient morbidity measures and prior costs. DCGs, pharmacy cost groups (PCGs), and prior year's costs improve the predictive accuracy of the demographic model substantially. DCGs and PCGs seem complementary in their ability to predict future costs. However, this study shows that the combination of DCGs and PCGs still leaves room for cream skimming.

  5. Predicting the cumulative risk of death during hospitalization by modeling weekend, weekday and diurnal mortality risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coiera, Enrico; Wang, Ying; Magrabi, Farah; Concha, Oscar Perez; Gallego, Blanca; Runciman, William

    2014-05-21

    Current prognostic models factor in patient and disease specific variables but do not consider cumulative risks of hospitalization over time. We developed risk models of the likelihood of death associated with cumulative exposure to hospitalization, based on time-varying risks of hospitalization over any given day, as well as day of the week. Model performance was evaluated alone, and in combination with simple disease-specific models. Patients admitted between 2000 and 2006 from 501 public and private hospitals in NSW, Australia were used for training and 2007 data for evaluation. The impact of hospital care delivered over different days of the week and or times of the day was modeled by separating hospitalization risk into 21 separate time periods (morning, day, night across the days of the week). Three models were developed to predict death up to 7-days post-discharge: 1/a simple background risk model using age, gender; 2/a time-varying risk model for exposure to hospitalization (admission time, days in hospital); 3/disease specific models (Charlson co-morbidity index, DRG). Combining these three generated a full model. Models were evaluated by accuracy, AUC, Akaike and Bayesian information criteria. There was a clear diurnal rhythm to hospital mortality in the data set, peaking in the evening, as well as the well-known 'weekend-effect' where mortality peaks with weekend admissions. Individual models had modest performance on the test data set (AUC 0.71, 0.79 and 0.79 respectively). The combined model which included time-varying risk however yielded an average AUC of 0.92. This model performed best for stays up to 7-days (93% of admissions), peaking at days 3 to 5 (AUC 0.94). Risks of hospitalization vary not just with the day of the week but also time of the day, and can be used to make predictions about the cumulative risk of death associated with an individual's hospitalization. Combining disease specific models with such time varying- estimates appears to

  6. Periodontal Disease and Risks of Kidney Function Decline and Mortality in Older People: A Community-Based Cohort Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yung-Tai; Shih, Chia-Jen; Ou, Shuo-Ming; Hung, Szu-Chun; Lin, Chi-Hung; Tarng, Der-Cherng

    2015-08-01

    The association between periodontal disease and chronic kidney disease in older people is controversial, and evidence for a causal link between kidney function decline and subsequent mortality risk is limited. Longitudinal, observational, community-based cohort study. Participants were citizens 65 years or older who received the Taipei City Government-sponsored Annual Elderly Health Examination Program during 2005 to 2010, including dental status assessment and biochemical examinations. Participants with periodontal disease defined by the World Health Organization Community Periodontal Index of Treatment Need criteria. All-cause and cardiovascular mortality and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) decline ≥ 30% over 2 years. Of 100,263 study participants, 13,749 (13.7%) had periodontal disease. In a mean follow-up of 3.8 years, all-cause and cardiovascular mortality rates in those with periodontal disease (11.5% and 2.6%, respectively) were higher compared with those without periodontal disease (6.7% and 1.6%, respectively). After adjustment for demographic characteristics, comorbid conditions, and biochemistry data, adjusted HRs for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality were 1.34 (95% CI, 1.26-1.42) and 1.25 (95% CI, 1.13-1.41), respectively. The frequency of eGFR decline ≥ 30% over 1-, 2-, and 3-years' follow-up in those with periodontal disease was 1.8%, 3.7%, and 4.0%, respectively. In a logistic regression model, adjusted ORs of the detrimental effect of periodontal disease on 30% eGFR decline in participants over 1-, 2-, or 3-years' follow-up were 1.03 (95% CI, 0.85-1.25), 1.62 (95% CI, 1.41-1.87), and 1.59 (95% CI, 1.37-1.86), respectively. In subgroup analyses according to age, sex, and comorbid conditions, risks for eGFR decline and mortality remained consistent. Results may not be generalizable to other non-Asian ethnic populations. The results indicate that periodontal disease is a risk factor for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality and e

  7. Risk factors for carbapenem resistant bacteraemia and mortality due to gram negative bacteraemia in a developing country

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kalam, K.; Kumar, S.; Ali, S.; Baqi, S.; Qamar, F.

    2014-01-01

    Objective: To identify the risk factors for carbapenem resistant bacteraemia and mortality due to gram negative bacteraemia in a developing country. Methods: A prospective cohort study was conducted at the Sindh Institute of Urology and Transplantation (SIUT) from June to October 2012. Hospitalized patients > 15 years of age with gram negative bacteraemia were included and followed for a period of 2 weeks for in hospital mortality. Data was collected and analyzed for 243 subjects. Multivariate analysis was used to determine the risk factors for carbapenem resistant bacteraemia and mortality due to gram negative bacteraemia. Crude and adjusted odds ratio and 95% CI are reported. Results: A total of 729 out of 1535 (47.5%) cultures were positive for gram negative isolates. Out of 243 subjects, 117 (48%) had an MDR isolate. Having an MDR isolate on culture (AOR, 2.33; 95% CI, 1.35 -4.0), having multiple positive cultures (AOR, 1.8; 95% CI, 0.94 -3.4) and stay in ICU >48 hours (AOR, 2.0 ; 95% CI, 1.12 -3.78) were identified as significant risk factors for mortality due to gram negative organisms. Risk factors for carbapenem resistant bacteraemia were age >50 years (AOR, 1.83; 95% CI, 1.0-3.5), septic shock on presentation (AOR 2.53; 95% CI, 1.03 -6.2) , ICU stay of >72 hours (AOR 2.40; 95% CI, 1.14-5.0) and receiving immunosuppressant medications (AOR 2.23; 95% CI, 0.74 - 6.7). Conclusion: There is a high burden of MDR and carbapenem resistant gram negative bacteraemia, with a high mortality rate. (author)

  8. Quantitative risk assessment of salmon louse-induced mortality of seaward-migrating post-smolt Atlantic salmon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anja Bråthen Kristoffersen

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available The Norwegian government recently implemented a new management system to regulate salmon farming in Norway, aiming to promote environmentally sustainable growth in the aquaculture industry. The Norwegian coast has been divided into 13 production zones and the volume of salmonid production in the zones will be regulated based on salmon lice effects on wild salmonids. Here we present a model for assessing salmon louse-induced mortality of seaward-migrating post-smolts of Atlantic salmon. The model quantifies expected salmon lice infestations and louse-induced mortality of migrating post-smolt salmon from 401 salmon rivers draining into Norwegian coastal waters. It is assumed that migrating post-smolts follow the shortest path from river outlets to the high seas, at constant progression rates. During this migration, fish are infested by salmon lice of farm origin according to an empirical infestation model. Furthermore, louse-induced mortality is estimated from the estimated louse infestations. Rivers draining into production zones on the West Coast of Norway were at the highest risk of adverse lice effects. In comparison, rivers draining into northerly production zones, along with the southernmost production zone, were at lower risk. After adjusting for standing stock biomass, estimates of louse-egg output varied by factors of up to 8 between production zones. Correlation between biomass adjusted output of louse infestation and densities of farmed salmon in the production zones suggests that a large-scale density-dependent host-parasite effect is a major driver of louse infestation rates and parasite-induced mortality. The estimates are sensitive to many of the processes in the chain of events in the model. Nevertheless, we argue that the model is suited to assess spatial and temporal risks associated with farm-origin salmon lice. Keywords: Density dependent, Sea lice, Transmission, Farmed salmon, Migration pathway, Migration time

  9. Traditional chinese medicine Xuebijing treatment is associated with decreased mortality risk of patients with moderate paraquat poisoning.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ping Gong

    Full Text Available Paraquat poisoning causes multiple organ injury and high mortality due to severe toxicity and lack of effective treatment. Xuebijing (XBJ injection, a traditional Chinese medicine preparation of five Chinese herbs (Radix Salviae Miltiorrhiae, Rhizoma Chuanxiong, Flos Carthami, Angelica Sinensis and Radix Paeoniae Rubra, has an anti-inflammatory effect and is widely used in the treatment of sepsis. This retrospective study was designed to evaluate the effects of XBJ combined with conventional therapy on mortality risk of patients with acute paraquat poisoning. Out of 68 patients, 27 were treated with conventional therapy (control group and 41 were treated with intravenous administration of XBJ (100 ml, twice a day, up to 7 days plus conventional therapy (XBJ group. Vital organ function, survival time within 28 days and adverse events during the treatment were reviewed. Results indicated that XBJ treatment significantly increased median survival time among patients ingesting 10-30 ml of paraquat (P=0.02 compared with the control group. After adjustment for covariates, XBJ treatment was associated significantly with a lower mortality risk (adjusted HR 0.242, 95% CI 0.113 to 0.516, P=0.001 compared with the control group. Additionally, compared with Day 1, on Day 3 the value of PaO2/FiO2 was significantly decreased, and the values of serum alanine aminotransferase, creatinine and troponin T were significantly increased in the control group (all P<0.05, but these values were significant improved in the XBJ group (all P<0.05. Only one patient had skin rash with itch within 30 minutes after injection and no severe adverse events were found in the XBJ group. In conclusion, XBJ treatment is associated with decreased mortality risk of patients with moderate paraquat poisoning, which may be attributed to improved function of vital organs with no severe adverse events.

  10. Traditional chinese medicine Xuebijing treatment is associated with decreased mortality risk of patients with moderate paraquat poisoning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gong, Ping; Lu, Zhidan; Xing, Jing; Wang, Na; Zhang, Yu

    2015-01-01

    Paraquat poisoning causes multiple organ injury and high mortality due to severe toxicity and lack of effective treatment. Xuebijing (XBJ) injection, a traditional Chinese medicine preparation of five Chinese herbs (Radix Salviae Miltiorrhiae, Rhizoma Chuanxiong, Flos Carthami, Angelica Sinensis and Radix Paeoniae Rubra), has an anti-inflammatory effect and is widely used in the treatment of sepsis. This retrospective study was designed to evaluate the effects of XBJ combined with conventional therapy on mortality risk of patients with acute paraquat poisoning. Out of 68 patients, 27 were treated with conventional therapy (control group) and 41 were treated with intravenous administration of XBJ (100 ml, twice a day, up to 7 days) plus conventional therapy (XBJ group). Vital organ function, survival time within 28 days and adverse events during the treatment were reviewed. Results indicated that XBJ treatment significantly increased median survival time among patients ingesting 10-30 ml of paraquat (P=0.02) compared with the control group. After adjustment for covariates, XBJ treatment was associated significantly with a lower mortality risk (adjusted HR 0.242, 95% CI 0.113 to 0.516, P=0.001) compared with the control group. Additionally, compared with Day 1, on Day 3 the value of PaO2/FiO2 was significantly decreased, and the values of serum alanine aminotransferase, creatinine and troponin T were significantly increased in the control group (all Ptreatment is associated with decreased mortality risk of patients with moderate paraquat poisoning, which may be attributed to improved function of vital organs with no severe adverse events.

  11. The Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Statistically Corrected Operative Risk Evaluation (AAA SCORE) for predicting mortality after open and endovascular interventions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ambler, Graeme K; Gohel, Manjit S; Mitchell, David C; Loftus, Ian M; Boyle, Jonathan R

    2015-01-01

    Accurate adjustment of surgical outcome data for risk is vital in an era of surgeon-level reporting. Current risk prediction models for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair are suboptimal. We aimed to develop a reliable risk model for in-hospital mortality after intervention for AAA, using rigorous contemporary statistical techniques to handle missing data. Using data collected during a 15-month period in the United Kingdom National Vascular Database, we applied multiple imputation methodology together with stepwise model selection to generate preoperative and perioperative models of in-hospital mortality after AAA repair, using two thirds of the available data. Model performance was then assessed on the remaining third of the data by receiver operating characteristic curve analysis and compared with existing risk prediction models. Model calibration was assessed by Hosmer-Lemeshow analysis. A total of 8088 AAA repair operations were recorded in the National Vascular Database during the study period, of which 5870 (72.6%) were elective procedures. Both preoperative and perioperative models showed excellent discrimination, with areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of .89 and .92, respectively. This was significantly better than any of the existing models (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for best comparator model, .84 and .88; P AAA repair. These models were carefully developed with rigorous statistical methodology and significantly outperform existing methods for both elective cases and overall AAA mortality. These models will be invaluable for both preoperative patient counseling and accurate risk adjustment of published outcome data. Copyright © 2015 Society for Vascular Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Financial Insolvency as a Risk Factor for Early Mortality Among Patients With Cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramsey, Scott D; Bansal, Aasthaa; Fedorenko, Catherine R; Blough, David K; Overstreet, Karen A; Shankaran, Veena; Newcomb, Polly

    2016-03-20

    Patients with cancer are more likely to file for bankruptcy than the general population, but the impact of severe financial distress on health outcomes among patients with cancer is not known. We linked Western Washington SEER Cancer Registry records with federal bankruptcy records for the region. By using propensity score matching to account for differences in several demographic and clinical factors between patients who did and did not file for bankruptcy, we then fit Cox proportional hazards models to examine the relationship between bankruptcy filing and survival. Between 1995 and 2009, 231,596 persons were diagnosed with cancer. Patients who filed for bankruptcy (n = 4,728) were more likely to be younger, female, and nonwhite, to have local- or regional- (v distant-) stage disease at diagnosis, and have received treatment. After propensity score matching, 3,841 patients remained in each group (bankruptcy v no bankruptcy). In the matched sample, mean age was 53.0 years, 54% were men, mean income was $49,000, and majorities were white (86%), married (60%), and urban (91%) and had local- or regional-stage disease at diagnosis (84%). Both groups received similar initial treatments. The adjusted hazard ratio for mortality among patients with cancer who filed for bankruptcy versus those who did not was 1.79 (95% CI, 1.64 to 1.96). Hazard ratios varied by cancer type: colorectal, prostate, and thyroid cancers had the highest hazard ratios. Excluding patients with distant-stage disease from the models did not have an effect on results. Severe financial distress requiring bankruptcy protection after cancer diagnosis appears to be a risk factor for mortality. Further research is needed to understand the process by which extreme financial distress influences survival after cancer diagnosis and to find strategies that could mitigate this risk. © 2016 by American Society of Clinical Oncology.

  13. Blood-borne biomarkers of mortality risk: systematic review of cohort studies.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Evelyn Barron

    Full Text Available Lifespan and the proportion of older people in the population are increasing, with far reaching consequences for the social, political and economic landscape. Unless accompanied by an increase in health span, increases in age-related diseases will increase the burden on health care resources. Intervention studies to enhance healthy ageing need appropriate outcome measures, such as blood-borne biomarkers, which are easily obtainable, cost-effective, and widely accepted. To date there have been no systematic reviews of blood-borne biomarkers of mortality.To conduct a systematic review to identify available blood-borne biomarkers of mortality that can be used to predict healthy ageing post-retirement.Four databases (Medline, Embase, Scopus, Web of Science were searched. We included prospective cohort studies with a minimum of two years follow up and data available for participants with a mean age of 50 to 75 years at baseline.From a total of 11,555 studies identified in initial searches, 23 fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Fifty-one blood borne biomarkers potentially predictive of mortality risk were identified. In total, 20 biomarkers were associated with mortality risk. Meta-analyses of mortality risk showed significant associations with C-reactive protein (Hazard ratios for all-cause mortality 1.42, p<0.001; Cancer-mortality 1.62, p<0.009; CVD-mortality 1.31, p = 0.033, N Terminal-pro brain natriuretic peptide (Hazard ratios for all-cause mortality 1.43, p<0.001; CHD-mortality 1.58, p<0.001; CVD-mortality 1.67, p<0.001 and white blood cell count (Hazard ratios for all-cause mortality 1.36, p = 0.001. There was also evidence that brain natriuretic peptide, cholesterol fractions, erythrocyte sedimentation rate, fibrinogen, granulocytes, homocysteine, intercellular adhesion molecule-1, neutrophils, osteoprotegerin, procollagen type III aminoterminal peptide, serum uric acid, soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor, tissue inhibitor of

  14. Overweight Without Central Obesity, Cardiovascular Risk, and All-Cause Mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Xin; Liu, Chen; Chen, Yili; He, Jiangui; Dong, Yugang

    2018-04-12

    To assess the association of overweight without central obesity with risks of mortality. We included 14,299 participants in the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (from October 18, 1988, through October 15, 1994). According to their body mass index and waist circumference, participants were categorized into 7 anthropometric groups. Logistic regression models were used to assess the relation of cardiovascular risk factors (hypertension, diabetes, or hypercholesterolemia) and 10-year cardiovascular risk to anthropometric groups. Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess the risk of all-cause mortality, and competing-risks regression models were used for calculating cardiovascular and noncardiovascular mortality. Compared with those with normal body mass index and waist circumference, overweight men without central obesity were more likely to have all 3 cardiovascular risk factors and a high cardiovascular risk, whereas women in this anthropometric group were more likely to have hypercholesterolemia. In proportional hazards models, overweight without central obesity was associated with lower all-cause mortality among men in the population with cardiovascular risk factors (hazard ratio, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.56-0.89; P=.004) and the general population (hazard ratio, 0.72; 95% CI, 0.60-0.87; P=.001), whereas results of these comparisons among women were not significant (P>.05). In competing risk analyses, overweight men without central obesity had a lower risk of noncardiovascular mortality, but not cardiovascular mortality. Although overweight without central obesity was associated with cardiovascular risk factors and a high cardiovascular risk among men, men in this anthropometric group had a lower mortality risk. Copyright © 2018 Mayo Foundation for Medical Education and Research. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Childhood height increases the risk of prostate cancer mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aarestrup, J; Gamborg, M; Cook, M B

    2015-01-01

    cancers. Cox proportional hazards regressions were performed. RESULTS: 630 men had prostate cancer recorded as the underlying cause of death. Childhood height at age 13years was positively associated with prostate cancer-specific mortality (hazard ratio [HR]per z-score=1.2, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.1-1.3......). Associations were significant at all other childhood ages. Growth analyses showed that height at age 13years had a stronger association with prostate cancer-specific mortality than height at age 7, suggesting the association at age 7 is largely mediated through later childhood height. The tallest boys at age...... 13years had a significantly worse survival, but only when restricted to a diagnosis at years of age (HRz-score of 1=1.7, 95% CI: 1.3-2.4). These associations were significant at all other childhood ages. Childhood BMI was not associated with prostate cancer mortality or survival. CONCLUSION...

  16. Oral health as a risk factor for mortality in middle-aged men: the role of socioeconomic position and health behaviours.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabbah, Wael; Mortensen, Laust Hvas; Sheiham, Aubrey; Batty, G David; Batty, David

    2013-05-01

    There is evidence of an association between poor oral health and mortality. This association is usually attributed to inflammatory and nutrition pathways. However, the role of health behaviours and socioeconomic position has not been adequately examined. The aims of this study were to examine the association between oral health and premature death among middle-aged men and to test whether it was explained by socioeconomic position and behaviours. Data were from the Vietnam Experience Study, a prospective cohort study of Vietnam War-era (1965-1971), American male army personnel. The authors examined risk of cause-specific and all-cause mortality in relation to poor oral health in middle age, adjusting for age, ethnicity, socioeconomic position, IQ, behavioural factors and systemic conditions. Men with poor oral health experienced a higher risk of cause-specific and all-cause mortality. HRs for all-cause mortality were 2.94 (95% CI 2.11 to 4.08) among individuals with poor oral health and 3.98 (95% CI 2.43 to 6.49) among edentates compared with those with good oral health after adjusting for ethnicity and age. The association attenuated but remained significant after further adjustment for systemic conditions, socioeconomic position and behaviours. Socioeconomic and behavioural factors explained 52% and 44% of mortality risks attributed to poor oral health and being edentate, respectively. The findings suggest that oral health-mortality relation is partly due to measured covariates in the present study. Oral health appears to be a marker of socioeconomic and behavioural risk factors related to all-cause mortality.

  17. Risk of childhood mortality in family members of men with poor semen quality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanson, Heidi A; Mayer, Erik N; Anderson, Ross E; Aston, Kenneth I; Carrell, Douglas T; Berger, Justin; Lowrance, William T; Smith, Ken R; Hotaling, James M

    2017-01-01

    difference in the risk of all-cause childhood mortality between the relatives of men with SA and the fertile control group [hazard ratio (HR) Female = 1.08, 95% CI = 0.88, 1.32; HR Male = 0.88, 95% CI = 0.75, 1.04]. We found no association between semen quality and risk for childhood cancer mortality in FDR or SDR (HR FDR = 0.98, 95% CI = 0.62, 1.54; HR SDR = 1.12, 95% CI = 0.83, 1.50). The FDR of men with SA and fertile controls were followed on average for 19.71 and 19.73 years, respectively. During this period of follow-up, FDR of men with SA had an unadjusted 40% relative risk of increased CM-related death. After stratifying by semen parameters and adjusting for birth year, we found FDR of men with worse semen quality, and notably azoospermic men (HR = 2.69, 95% CI = 1.24,5.84), were at higher risk of CM-related death. A large proportion of men with SA in the study had normal semen parameters. It is important to note that these men themselves may not be subfertile, but they were subfertile at the couple level (i.e. the female partner may be infertile). In addition, care is needed when interpreting our results, as we do not have semen measures on our sample of fertile men. Second, we were unable to include potential confounders such as medical comorbidities, smoking status, or environmental exposures. Third, men with SA were seen at the University of Utah or Intermountain Health Care clinics for a fertility evaluation thereby suggesting a more select population. Fourth, we chose to categorize morphology into equally distributed quartiles as a response to the fact that the World Health Organization threshold for normal motility changed multiple times during our study period. Lastly, we do not know the proportion of female partners with diagnosed infertility. We chose not to subcategorize each infertile male by infertile diagnosis because our goal was to understand how semen parameters influenced familial childhood mortality. We are not the first study to show a

  18. Mortality risk factors for calves entering a multi-location white veal farm in Ontario, Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winder, Charlotte B; Kelton, David F; Duffield, Todd F

    2016-12-01

    Mortality in preweaned dairy-breed calves, whether they are replacement dairy heifers, veal animals, or dairy beef animals, represents both a welfare issue and a source of economic loss for the industries involved. Studies describing morbidity and mortality in veal calves have illustrated different management practices and requirements in terms of housing and nutrition around the world. Studies examining the rearing of replacement dairy heifers have shown that rates of morbidity and mortality can vary dramatically between farms, perhaps reflecting differences in management strategies. It has been over 2 decades since morbidity and mortality in veal calves in Ontario were described. The objective of this retrospective population cohort study was to describe mortality and determine whether on-arrival information could be used to predict mortality risk. Predictors could be used to both better classify and group calves on arrival and provide feedback to suppliers about the characteristics of the highest- and lowest-risk calves. We collected data from 10,910 calves entering 7 barns of a single white veal farm, all in Ontario, from January 1 to December 31, 2014. Calves were followed until death or marketing (typically 140 to 150 d). We developed logistic regression models to determine the effects of weight on arrival, season of arrival, supplier, sex, barn, and purchase price on the risk of total mortality, early mortality (0-21d after arrival), and late mortality (>21d after arrival). We identified significant associations between season, barn, supplier, weight, and total mortality risk, with lighter-weight calves arriving in winter being at increased risk. Early mortality was significantly associated with weight, season, barn, and supplier, and tended to be associated with standardized price; lighter-weight calves arriving in winter at lower prices were at increased risk. Late mortality was significantly associated with season of arrival, barn, and supplier. On

  19. Does gender inequity increase men's mortality risk in the United States? A multilevel analysis of data from the National Longitudinal Mortality Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shane A. Kavanagh

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available A number of theoretical approaches suggest that gender inequity may give rise to health risks for men. This study undertook a multilevel analysis to ascertain if state-level measures of gender inequity are predictors of men's mortality in the United States. Data for the analysis were taken primarily from the National Longitudinal Mortality Study, which is based on a random sample of the non-institutionalised population. The full data set included 174,703 individuals nested within 50 states and had a six-year follow-up for mortality. Gender inequity was measured by nine variables: higher education, reproductive rights, abortion provider access, elected office, management, business ownership, labour force participation, earnings and relative poverty. Covariates at the individual level were age, income, education, race/ethnicity, marital status and employment status. Covariates at the state level were income inequality and per capita gross domestic product. The results of logistic multilevel modelling showed a number of measures of state-level gender inequity were significantly associated with men's mortality. In all of these cases greater gender inequity was associated with an increased mortality risk. In fully adjusted models for all-age adult men the elected office (OR 1.05 95% CI 1.01–1.09, business ownership (OR 1.04 95% CI 1.01–1.08, earnings (OR 1.04 95% CI 1.01–1.08 and relative poverty (OR 1.07 95% CI 1.03–1.10 measures all showed statistically significant effects for each 1 standard deviation increase in the gender inequity z-score. Similar effects were seen for working-age men. In older men (65+ years only the earnings and relative poverty measures were statistically significant. This study provides evidence that gender inequity may increase men's health risks. The effect sizes while small are large enough across the range of gender inequity identified to have important population health implications.

  20. A risk-model for hospital mortality among patients with severe sepsis or septic shock based on German national administrative claims data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwarzkopf, Daniel; Fleischmann-Struzek, Carolin; Rüddel, Hendrik; Reinhart, Konrad; Thomas-Rüddel, Daniel O

    2018-01-01

    Sepsis is a major cause of preventable deaths in hospitals. Feasible and valid methods for comparing quality of sepsis care between hospitals are needed. The aim of this study was to develop a risk-adjustment model suitable for comparing sepsis-related mortality between German hospitals. We developed a risk-model using national German claims data. Since these data are available with a time-lag of 1.5 years only, the stability of the model across time was investigated. The model was derived from inpatient cases with severe sepsis or septic shock treated in 2013 using logistic regression with backward selection and generalized estimating equations to correct for clustering. It was validated among cases treated in 2015. Finally, the model development was repeated in 2015. To investigate secular changes, the risk-adjusted trajectory of mortality across the years 2010-2015 was analyzed. The 2013 deviation sample consisted of 113,750 cases; the 2015 validation sample consisted of 134,851 cases. The model developed in 2013 showed good validity regarding discrimination (AUC = 0.74), calibration (observed mortality in 1st and 10th risk-decile: 11%-78%), and fit (R2 = 0.16). Validity remained stable when the model was applied to 2015 (AUC = 0.74, 1st and 10th risk-decile: 10%-77%, R2 = 0.17). There was no indication of overfitting of the model. The final model developed in year 2015 contained 40 risk-factors. Between 2010 and 2015 hospital mortality in sepsis decreased from 48% to 42%. Adjusted for risk-factors the trajectory of decrease was still significant. The risk-model shows good predictive validity and stability across time. The model is suitable to be used as an external algorithm for comparing risk-adjusted sepsis mortality among German hospitals or regions based on administrative claims data, but secular changes need to be taken into account when interpreting risk-adjusted mortality.

  1. Factors Associated With Mortality in Low-Risk Pediatric Critical Care Patients in The Netherlands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verlaat, Carin W; Visser, Idse H; Wubben, Nina; Hazelzet, Jan A; Lemson, Joris; van Waardenburg, Dick; van der Heide, Douwe; van Dam, Nicolette A; Jansen, Nicolaas J; van Heerde, Mark; van der Starre, Cynthia; van Asperen, Roelie; Kneyber, Martin; van Woensel, Job B; van den Boogaard, Mark; van der Hoeven, Johannes

    2017-04-01

    To determine differences between survivors and nonsurvivors and factors associated with mortality in pediatric intensive care patients with low risk of mortality. Retrospective cohort study. Patients were selected from a national database including all admissions to the PICUs in The Netherlands between 2006 and 2012. Patients less than 18 years old admitted to the PICU with a predicted mortality risk lower than 1% according to either the recalibrated Pediatric Risk of Mortality or the Pediatric Index of Mortality 2 were included. None. In total, 16,874 low-risk admissions were included of which 86 patients (0.5%) died. Nonsurvivors had more unplanned admissions (74.4% vs 38.5%; p < 0.001), had more complex chronic conditions (76.7% vs 58.8%; p = 0.001), were more often mechanically ventilated (88.1% vs 34.9%; p < 0.001), and had a longer length of stay (median, 11 [interquartile range, 5-32] d vs median, 3 [interquartile range, 2-5] d; p < 0.001) when compared with survivors. Factors significantly associated with mortality were complex chronic conditions (odds ratio, 3.29; 95% CI, 1.97-5.50), unplanned admissions (odds ratio, 5.78; 95% CI, 3.40-9.81), and admissions in spring/summer (odds ratio, 1.67; 95% CI, 1.08-2.58). Nonsurvivors in the PICU with a low predicted mortality risk have recognizable risk factors including complex chronic condition and unplanned admissions.

  2. Risk-adjusted survival after tissue versus mechanical aortic valve replacement: a 23-year assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaca, Jeffrey G; Clare, Robert M; Rankin, J Scott; Daneshmand, Mani A; Milano, Carmelo A; Hughes, G Chad; Wolfe, Walter G; Glower, Donald D; Smith, Peter K

    2013-11-01

    Detailed analyses of risk-adjusted outcomes after mitral valve surgery have documented significant survival decrements with tissue valves at any age. Several recent studies of prosthetic aortic valve replacement (AVR) also have suggested a poorer performance of tissue valves, although analyses have been limited to small matched series. The study aim was to test the hypothesis that AVR with tissue valves is associated with a lower risk-adjusted survival, as compared to mechanical valves. Between 1986 and 2009, primary isolated AVR, with or without coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG), was performed with currently available valve types in 2148 patients (1108 tissue valves, 1040 mechanical). Patients were selected for tissue valves to be used primarily in the elderly. Baseline and operative characteristics were documented prospectively with a consistent variable set over the entire 23-year period. Follow up was obtained with mailed questionnaires, supplemented by National Death Index searches. The average time to death or follow up was seven years, and follow up for survival was 96.2% complete. Risk-adjusted survival characteristics for the two groups were evaluated using a Cox proportional hazards model with stepwise selection of candidate variables. Differences in baseline characteristics between groups were (tissue versus mechanical): median age 73 versus 61 years; non-elective surgery 32% versus 28%; CABG 45% versus 35%; median ejection fraction 55% versus 55%; renal failure 6% versus 1%; diabetes 18% versus 7% (pvalves; however, after risk adjustment for the adverse profiles of tissue valve patients, no significant difference was observed in survival after tissue or mechanical AVR. Thus, the hypothesis did not hold, and risk-adjusted survival was equivalent, of course qualified by the fact that selection bias was evident. With selection criteria that employed tissue AVR more frequently in elderly patients, tissue and mechanical valves achieved similar survival

  3. Burden of typhoid fever in low-income and middle-income countries: a systematic, literature-based update with risk-factor adjustment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mogasale, Vittal; Maskery, Brian; Ochiai, R Leon; Lee, Jung Seok; Mogasale, Vijayalaxmi V; Ramani, Enusa; Kim, Young Eun; Park, Jin Kyung; Wierzba, Thomas F

    2014-10-01

    No access to safe water is an important risk factor for typhoid fever, yet risk-level heterogeneity is unaccounted for in previous global burden estimates. Since WHO has recommended risk-based use of typhoid polysaccharide vaccine, we revisited the burden of typhoid fever in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) after adjusting for water-related risk. We estimated the typhoid disease burden from studies done in LMICs based on blood-culture-confirmed incidence rates applied to the 2010 population, after correcting for operational issues related to surveillance, limitations of diagnostic tests, and water-related risk. We derived incidence estimates, correction factors, and mortality estimates from systematic literature reviews. We did scenario analyses for risk factors, diagnostic sensitivity, and case fatality rates, accounting for the uncertainty in these estimates and we compared them with previous disease burden estimates. The estimated number of typhoid fever cases in LMICs in 2010 after adjusting for water-related risk was 11·9 million (95% CI 9·9-14·7) cases with 129 000 (75 000-208 000) deaths. By comparison, the estimated risk-unadjusted burden was 20·6 million (17·5-24·2) cases and 223 000 (131 000-344 000) deaths. Scenario analyses indicated that the risk-factor adjustment and updated diagnostic test correction factor derived from systematic literature reviews were the drivers of differences between the current estimate and past estimates. The risk-adjusted typhoid fever burden estimate was more conservative than previous estimates. However, by distinguishing the risk differences, it will allow assessment of the effect at the population level and will facilitate cost-effectiveness calculations for risk-based vaccination strategies for future typhoid conjugate vaccine. Copyright © 2014 Mogasale et al. Open Access article distributed under the terms of CC BY-NC-SA. Published by .. All rights reserved.

  4. Risk factors for anastomotic leakage and leak-related mortality after colonic cancer surgery in a nationwide audit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bakker, I S; Grossmann, I; Henneman, D; Havenga, K; Wiggers, T

    2014-03-01

    Surgical resection with restoration of bowel continuity is the cornerstone of treatment for patients with colonic cancer. The aim of this study was to identify risk factors for anastomotic leakage (AL) and subsequent death after colonic cancer surgery. Data were retrieved from the Dutch Surgical Colorectal Audit. Patients undergoing colonic cancer resection with creation of an anastomosis between January 2009 to December 2011 were included. Outcomes were AL requiring reintervention and postoperative mortality following AL. AL occurred in 7·5 per cent of 15 667 patients. Multivariable analyses identified male sex, high American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) fitness grade, extensive tumour resection, emergency surgery, and surgical resection types such as transverse resection, left colectomy and subtotal colectomy as independent risk factors for AL. A defunctioning stoma was created in a small group of patients, leading to a lower risk of leakage. The mortality rate was 4·1 per cent overall, and was significantly higher in patients with AL than in those without leakage (16·4 versus 3·1 per cent; P risk factors for death after AL. The adjusted risk of death after AL was twice as high following right compared with left colectomy. The elderly and patients with co-morbidity have a higher risk of death after AL. Accurate preoperative patient selection, intensive postoperative surveillance for AL, and early and aggressive treatment of suspected leakage is important, especially in patients undergoing right colectomy. © 2014 BJS Society Ltd. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  5. Does risk-adjusted payment influence primary care providers’ decision on where to set up practices?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Anell, Anders; Dackehag, Margareta; Dietrichson, Jens

    2018-01-01

    Background: Providing equal access to healthcare is an important objective in most health care systems. It is especially pertinent in systems like the Swedish primary care market, where private providers are free to establish themselves in any part of the country. To improve equity in access...... to care, 15 out 21 county councils in Sweden have implemented risk-adjusted capitation based on the Care Need Index, which increases capitation to primary care centers with a large share of patients with unfavorable socioeconomic and demographic characteristics. Our aim is to estimate the effects of using...... Index values. Results: Risk-adjusted capitation significantly increases the number of private primary care centers in areas with relatively high Care Need Index values. The adjustment results in a changed distribution of private centers within county councils; the total number of private centers does...

  6. The Importance of Vigorous-Intensity Leisure-Time Physical Activity in Reducing Cardiovascular Disease Mortality Risk in the Obese.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Donovan, Gary; Stamatakis, Emmanuel; Stensel, David J; Hamer, Mark

    2018-03-02

    To investigate the role of vigorous-intensity leisure-time physical activity in reducing cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality risk in the obese. Trained interviewers assessed physical activity and body mass index (BMI; calculated as the weight in kilograms divided by the height in meters squared) in 59,005 adult participants (mean ± SD age, 57±12 years; 46.5% male) in 2 household-based surveillance studies: Health Survey for England and Scottish Health Survey. Mortality was ascertained from death certificates. Data were collected from January 1, 1994, through March 31, 2011. Cox proportional hazards models were adjusted for age, sex, smoking habit, total physical activity, long-standing illness, prevalent CVD, and occupation. There were 2302 CVD deaths during 532,251 person-years of follow-up (mean ± SD, 9±4 years). A total of 15,002 (25%) participants were categorized as obese (BMI ≥30). Leisure-time physical activity was inversely associated and BMI was positively associated with CVD mortality. Compared with those who reported meeting physical activity guidelines including some vigorous-intensity physical activity and who had a normal BMI (18.5-24.9) (reference group), the CVD mortality hazard ratio was not significantly different in the obese who also reported meeting physical activity guidelines including some vigorous-intensity physical activities (1.25; 95% CI, 0.50-3.12). Compared with the reference group, the CVD mortality hazard ratio was more than 2-fold in the obese who reported meeting physical activity guidelines, including only moderate-intensity physical activities (2.52; 95% CI, 1.15-2.53). This large, statistically powerful study suggests that vigorous-intensity leisure-time physical activity is important in reducing CVD mortality risk in the obese. Copyright © 2018 Mayo Foundation for Medical Education and Research. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Evidence that Risk Adjustment is Unnecessary in Estimates of the User Cost of Money

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diego A. Restrepo-Tobón

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Investors value the  special attributes of monetary assets (e.g.,  exchangeability, liquidity, and safety  and pay a premium for holding them in the form of a lower return rate. The user cost of holding monetary assets can be measured approximately by the difference between the  returns on illiquid risky assets and  those of safer liquid assets. A more appropriate measure should adjust this difference by the  differential risk of the  assets in question. We investigate the  impact that time  non-separable preferences has on the  estimation of the  risk-adjusted user cost of money. Using U.K. data from 1965Q1 to 2011Q1, we estimate a habit-based asset pricing model  with money  in the utility function and  find that the  risk  adjustment for risky monetary assets is negligible. Thus, researchers can dispense with risk adjusting the  user cost of money  in constructing monetary aggregate indexes.

  8. Assessing At-Risk Youth Using the Reynolds Adolescent Adjustment Screening Inventory with a Latino Population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balkin, Richard S.; Cavazos, Javier, Jr.; Hernandez, Arthur E.; Garcia, Roberto; Dominguez, Denise L.; Valarezo, Alexandra

    2013-01-01

    Factor analyses were conducted on scores from the Reynolds Adolescent Adjustment Screening Inventory (RAASI; Reynolds, 2001) representing at-risk Latino youth. The 4-factor model of the RAASI did not exhibit a good fit. However, evidence of generalizability for Latino youth was noted. (Contains 3 tables.)

  9. Measuring Profitability Impacts of Information Technology: Use of Risk Adjusted Measures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Anil; Harmon, Glynn

    2003-01-01

    Focuses on understanding how investments in information technology are reflected in the income statements and balance sheets of firms. Shows that the relationship between information technology investments and corporate profitability is much better explained by using risk-adjusted measures of corporate profitability than using the same measures…

  10. School Adjustment of Pupils with ADHD: Cognitive, Emotional and Temperament Risk Factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanchez-Perez, Noelia; Gonzalez-Salinas, Carmen

    2013-01-01

    From different research perspectives, the cognitive and emotional characteristics associated with ADHD in children have been identified as risk factors for the development of diverse adjustment problems in the school context. Research in nonclinical population can additionally help in understanding ADHD deficits, since children with specific…

  11. Prior use of durable medical equipment as a risk adjuster for health-based capitation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R.C. van Kleef (Richard); R.C.J.A. van Vliet (René)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractThis paper examines a new risk adjuster for capitation payments to Dutch health plans, based on the prior use of durable medical equipment (DME). The essence is to classify users of DME in a previous year into clinically homogeneous classes and to apply the resulting classification as a

  12. 48 CFR 215.404-71-3 - Contract type risk and working capital adjustment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    .... Cost-plus-incentive-free (4) 1.0 0 to 2. Cost-plus-fixed-fee (4) 0.5 0 to 1. Time-and-materials... considered cost-plus-fixed-fee contracts for the purposes of assigning profit values. They shall not receive... CONTRACTING BY NEGOTIATION Contract Pricing 215.404-71-3 Contract type risk and working capital adjustment. (a...

  13. A risk adjustment approach to estimating the burden of skin disease in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Henry W; Collins, Scott A B; Resneck, Jack S; Bolognia, Jean; Hodge, Julie A; Rohrer, Thomas A; Van Beek, Marta J; Margolis, David J; Sober, Arthur J; Weinstock, Martin A; Nerenz, David R; Begolka, Wendy Smith; Moyano, Jose V

    2018-01-01

    Direct insurance claims tabulation and risk adjustment statistical methods can be used to estimate health care costs associated with various diseases. In this third manuscript derived from the new national Burden of Skin Disease Report from the American Academy of Dermatology, a risk adjustment method that was based on modeling the average annual costs of individuals with or without specific diseases, and specifically tailored for 24 skin disease categories, was used to estimate the economic burden of skin disease. The results were compared with the claims tabulation method used in the first 2 parts of this project. The risk adjustment method estimated the direct health care costs of skin diseases to be $46 billion in 2013, approximately $15 billion less than estimates using claims tabulation. For individual skin diseases, the risk adjustment cost estimates ranged from 11% to 297% of those obtained using claims tabulation for the 10 most costly skin disease categories. Although either method may be used for purposes of estimating the costs of skin disease, the choice of method will affect the end result. These findings serve as an important reference for future discussions about the method chosen in health care payment models to estimate both the cost of skin disease and the potential cost impact of care changes. Copyright © 2017 American Academy of Dermatology, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Infant mortality in Pelotas, Brazil: a comparison of risk factors in two birth cohorts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menezes, Ana Maria Baptista; Hallal, Pedro Curi; Santos, Iná Silva dos; Victora, Cesar Gomes; Barros, Fernando Celso

    2005-12-01

    To compare two population-based birth cohorts to assess trends in infant mortality rates and the distribution of relevant risk factors, and how these changed after an 11-year period. Data from two population-based prospective birth cohorts (1982 and 1993) were analyzed. Both studies included all children born in a hospital (> 99% of all births) in the city of Pelotas, Southern Brazil. Infant mortality was monitored through surveillance of all maternity hospitals, mortality registries and cemeteries. There were 5,914 live-born children in 1982 and 5,249 in 1993. The infant mortality rate decreased by 41%, from 36.0 per 1,000 live births in 1982 to 21.1 per 1,000 in 1993. Socioeconomic and maternal factors tended to become more favorable during the study period, but there were unfavorable changes in birthweight and gestational age. Poverty, high parity, low birthweight, preterm delivery, and intrauterine growth restriction were the main risk factors for infant mortality in both cohorts. The 41% reduction in infant mortality between 1982 and 1993 would have been even greater had the prevalence of risk factors remained constant during the period studied here. There were impressive declines in infant mortality which were not due to changes in the risk factors we studied. Because no reduction was seen in the large social inequalities documented in the 1982 cohort, it is likely that the reduction in infant mortality resulted largely from improvements in health care.

  15. Subclinical and overt thyroid dysfunction and risk of all-cause mortality and cardiovascular events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Selmer, Christian; Olesen, Jonas Bjerring; Hansen, Morten Lock

    2014-01-01

    hypothyroidism with TSH of 5-10 mIU/L [IRR 0.92 (95% CI 0.86-0.98)]. CONCLUSIONS: Heart failure is the leading cause of an increased cardiovascular mortality in both overt and subclinical hyperthyroidism. Subclinical hypothyroidism with TSH 5-10 mIU/L might be associated with a lower risk of all-cause mortality....

  16. Individual testosterone decline and future mortality risk in men

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holmboe, Stine Agergaard; Skakkebaek, Niels E.; Juul, Anders

    2018-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: Male aging is characterized by a decline in testosterone (T) levels with a substantial variability between subjects. However, it is unclear whether differences in age-related changes in T are associated with general health. We investigated associations between mortality and intra...

  17. Comorbidity and 1-year mortality risks in nursing home residents

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Dijk, P.T.; Mehr, D.R.; Ooms, M.E.; Madsen, R.W.; Petroski, G.; Frijters, D.H.M.; Pot, A.M.; Ribbe, M.W.

    2005-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: To investigate the effect of chronic diseases and disease combinations on 1-year mortality in nursing home residents. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study using electronically submitted Minimum Data Set (MDS) information and Missouri death certificate data. SETTING: Five hundred twenty-two

  18. Does the mortality risk of social isolation depend upon socioeconomic factors?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patterson, Andrew C

    2016-10-01

    This study considers whether socioeconomic status influences the impact of social isolation on mortality risk. Using data from the Alameda County Study, Cox proportional hazard models indicate that having a high income worsens the mortality risk of social isolation. Education may offset risk, however, and the specific pattern that emerges depends on which measures for socioeconomic status and social isolation are included. Additionally, lonely people who earn high incomes suffer especially high risk of accidents and suicides as well as cancer. Further research is needed that contextualizes the health risks of social isolation within the broader social environment. © The Author(s) 2015.

  19. Surgeon length of service and risk-adjusted outcomes: linked observational analysis of the UK National Adult Cardiac Surgery Audit Registry and General Medical Council Register.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hickey, Graeme L; Grant, Stuart W; Freemantle, Nick; Cunningham, David; Munsch, Christopher M; Livesey, Steven A; Roxburgh, James; Buchan, Iain; Bridgewater, Ben

    2014-09-01

    To explore the relationship between in-hospital mortality following adult cardiac surgery and the time since primary clinical qualification for the responsible consultant cardiac surgeon (a proxy for experience). Retrospective analysis of prospectively collected national registry data over a 10-year period using mixed-effects multiple logistic regression modelling. Surgeon experience was defined as the time between the date of surgery and award of primary clinical qualification. UK National Health Service hospitals performing cardiac surgery between January 2003 and December 2012. All patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafts and/or valve surgery under the care of a consultant cardiac surgeon. All-cause in-hospital mortality. A total of 292,973 operations performed by 273 consultant surgeons (with lengths of service from 11.2 to 42.0 years) were included. Crude mortality increased approximately linearly until 33 years service, before decreasing. After adjusting for case-mix and year of surgery, there remained a statistically significant (p=0.002) association between length of service and in-hospital mortality (odds ratio 1.013; 95% CI 1.005-1.021 for each year of 'experience'). Consultant cardiac surgeons take on increasingly complex surgery as they gain experience. With this progression, the incidence of adverse outcomes is expected to increase, as is demonstrated in this study. After adjusting for case-mix using the EuroSCORE, we observed an increased risk of mortality in patients operated on by longer serving surgeons. This finding may reflect under-adjustment for risk, unmeasured confounding or a real association. Further research into outcomes over the time course of surgeon's careers is required. © The Royal Society of Medicine.

  20. 12 CFR Appendix B to Part 3 - Risk-Based Capital Guidelines; Market Risk Adjustment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ...) The bank must have a risk control unit that reports directly to senior management and is independent... management systems at least annually. (c) Market risk factors. The bank's internal model must use risk.... Section 4. Internal Models (a) General. For risk-based capital purposes, a bank subject to this appendix...

  1. Risk models for mortality following elective open and endovascular abdominal aortic aneurysm repair: a single institution experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choke, E; Lee, K; McCarthy, M; Nasim, A; Naylor, A R; Bown, M; Sayers, R

    2012-12-01

    To develop and validate an "in house" risk model for predicting perioperative mortality following elective AAA repair and to compare this with other models. Multivariate logistics regression analysis was used to identify risk factors for perioperative-day mortality from one tertiary institution's prospectively maintained database. Consecutive elective open (564) and endovascular (589) AAA repairs (2000-2010) were split randomly into development (810) and validation (343) data sets. The resultant model was compared to Glasgow Aneurysm Score (GAS), Modified Customised Probability Index (m-CPI), CPI, the Vascular Governance North West (VGNW) model and the Medicare model. Variables associated with perioperative mortality included: increasing age (P = 0.034), myocardial infarct within last 10 years (P = 0.0008), raised serum creatinine (P = 0.005) and open surgery (P = 0.0001). The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for predicted probability of 30-day mortality in development and validation data sets were 0.79 and 0.82 respectively. AUCs for GAS, m-CPI and CPI were poor (0.63, 0.58 and 0.58 respectively), whilst VGNW and Medicare model were fair (0.73 and 0.79 respectively). In this study, an "in-house" developed and validated risk model has the most accurate discriminative value in predicting perioperative mortality after elective AAA repair. For purposes of comparative audit with case mix adjustments, national models such as the VGNW or Medicare models should be used. Copyright © 2012 European Society for Vascular Surgery. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Increased risk of all-cause mortality and renal graft loss in stable renal transplant recipients with hyperparathyroidism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pihlstrøm, Hege; Dahle, Dag Olav; Mjøen, Geir; Pilz, Stefan; März, Winfried; Abedini, Sadollah; Holme, Ingar; Fellström, Bengt; Jardine, Alan G; Holdaas, Hallvard

    2015-02-01

    Hyperparathyroidism is reported in 10% to 66% of renal transplant recipients (RTR). The influence of persisting hyperparathyroidism on long-term clinical outcomes in RTR has not been examined in a large prospective study. We investigated the association between baseline parathyroid hormone (PTH) levels and major cardiovascular events, renal graft loss, and all-cause mortality by Cox Proportional Hazard survival analyses in 1840 stable RTR derived from the Assessment of LEscol in Renal Transplantation trial. Patients were recruited in a mean of 5.1 years after transplantation, and follow-up time was 6 to 7 years. Significant associations between PTH and all 3 outcomes were found in univariate analyses. When adjusting for a range of plausible confounders, including measures of renal function and serum mineral levels, PTH remained significantly associated with all-cause mortality (4% increased risk per 10 units; P=0.004), and with graft loss (6% increased risk per 10 units; PHyperparathyroidism is an independent, potentially remediable, risk factor for renal graft loss and all-cause mortality in RTR.

  3. [Risks factors associated with intra-partum foetal mortality in pre-term infants].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeballos Sarrato, Susana; Villar Castro, Sonia; Ramos Navarro, Cristina; Zeballos Sarrato, Gonzalo; Sánchez Luna, Manuel

    2017-03-01

    Pre-term delivery is one of the leading causes of foetal and perinatal mortality. However, perinatal risk factors associated with intra-partum foetal death in preterm deliveries have not been well studied. To analyse foetal mortality and perinatal risk factors associated with intra-partum foetal mortality in pregnancies of less than 32 weeks gestational age. The study included all preterm deliveries between 22 and 31 +1 weeks gestational age (WGA), born in a tertiary-referral hospital, over a period of 7 years (2008-2014). A logistic regression model was used to identify perinatal risk factors associated with intra-partum foetal mortality (foetal malformations and chromosomal abnormalities were excluded). During the study period, the overall foetal mortality was 63.1% (106/168) (≥22 weeks of gestation) occurred in pregnancies of less than 32 WGA. A total of 882 deliveries between 22 and 31+6 weeks of gestation were included for analysis. The rate of foetal mortality was 11.3% (100/882). The rate of intra-partum foetal death was 2.6% (23/882), with 78.2% (18/23) of these cases occurring in hospitalised pregnancies. It was found that Assisted Reproductive Techniques, abnormal foetal ultrasound, no administration of antenatal steroids, lower gestational age, and small for gestational age, were independent risk factors associated with intra-partum foetal mortality. This study showed that there is a significant percentage intra-partum foetal mortality in infants between 22 and 31+6 WGA. The analysis of intrapartum mortality and risk factors associated with this mortality is of clinical and epidemiological interest to optimise perinatal care and improve survival of preterm infants. Copyright © 2016 Asociación Española de Pediatría. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  4. The Impact of EuroSCORE II Risk Factors on Prediction of Long-Term Mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barili, Fabio; Pacini, Davide; D'Ovidio, Mariangela; Dang, Nicholas C; Alamanni, Francesco; Di Bartolomeo, Roberto; Grossi, Claudio; Davoli, Marina; Fusco, Danilo; Parolari, Alessandro

    2016-10-01

    The European System for Cardiac Operation Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) II has not been tested yet for predicting long-term mortality. This study was undertaken to evaluate the relationship between EuroSCORE II and long-term mortality and to develop a new algorithm based on EuroSCORE II factors to predict long-term survival after cardiac surgery. Complete data on 10,033 patients who underwent major cardiac surgery during a 7-year period were retrieved from three prospective institutional databases and linked with the Italian Tax Register Information System. Mortality at follow-up was analyzed with time-to-event analysis. The Kaplan-Meier estimates of survival at 1 and 5 were, respectively, 95.0% ± 0.2% and 84.7% ± 0.4%. Both discrimination and calibration of EuroSCORE II decreased in the prediction of 1-year and 5-year mortality. Nonetheless, EuroSCORE II was confirmed to be an independent predictor of long-term mortality with a nonlinear trend. Several EuroSCORE II variables were independent risk factors for long-term mortality in a regression model, most of all very low ejection fraction (less than 20%), salvage operation, and dialysis. In the final model, isolated mitral valve surgery and isolated coronary artery bypass graft surgery were associated with improved long-term survival. The EuroSCORE II cannot be considered a direct estimator of long-term risk of death, as its performance fades for mortality at follow-up longer than 30 days. Nonetheless, it is nonlinearly associated with long-term mortality, and most of its variables are risk factors for long-term mortality. Hence, they can be used in a different algorithm to stratify the risk of long-term mortality after surgery. Copyright © 2016 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Anesthesiologist- and System-Related Risk Factors for Risk-Adjusted Pediatric Anesthesia-Related Cardiac Arrest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zgleszewski, Steven E; Graham, Dionne A; Hickey, Paul R; Brustowicz, Robert M; Odegard, Kirsten C; Koka, Rahul; Seefelder, Christian; Navedo, Andres T; Randolph, Adrienne G

    2016-02-01

    Pediatric anesthesia-related cardiac arrest (ARCA) is an uncommon but potentially preventable adverse event. Infants and children with more severe underlying disease are at highest risk. We aimed to identify system- and anesthesiologist-related risk factors for ARCA. We analyzed a prospectively collected patient cohort data set of anesthetics administered from 2000 to 2011 to children at a large tertiary pediatric hospital. Pre-procedure systemic disease level was characterized by ASA physical status (ASA-PS). Two reviewers independently reviewed cardiac arrests and categorized their anesthesia relatedness. Factors associated with ARCA in the univariate analyses were identified for reevaluation after adjustment for patient age and ASA-PS. Cardiac arrest occurred in 142 of 276,209 anesthetics (incidence 5.1/10,000 anesthetics); 72 (2.6/10,000 anesthetics) were classified as anesthesia-related. In the univariate analyses, risk of ARCA was much higher in cardiac patients and for anesthesiologists with lower annual caseload and/or fewer annual days delivering anesthetics (all P risk adjustment for ASA-PS ≥ III and age ≤ 6 months, however, the association with lower annual days delivering anesthetics remained (P = 0.03), but the other factors were no longer significant. Case-mix explained most associations between higher risk of pediatric ARCA and anesthesiologist-related variables at our institution, but the association with fewer annual days delivering anesthetics remained. Our findings highlight the need for rigorous adjustment for patient risk factors in anesthesia patient safety studies.

  6. Dynamic probability control limits for risk-adjusted CUSUM charts based on multiresponses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xiang; Loda, Justin B; Woodall, William H

    2017-07-20

    For a patient who has survived a surgery, there could be several levels of recovery. Thus, it is reasonable to consider more than two outcomes when monitoring surgical outcome quality. The risk-adjusted cumulative sum (CUSUM) chart based on multiresponses has been developed for monitoring a surgical process with three or more outcomes. However, there is a significant effect of varying risk distributions on the in-control performance of the chart when constant control limits are applied. To overcome this disadvantage, we apply the dynamic probability control limits to the risk-adjusted CUSUM charts for multiresponses. The simulation results demonstrate that the in-control performance of the charts with dynamic probability control limits can be controlled for different patient populations because these limits are determined for each specific sequence of patients. Thus, the use of dynamic probability control limits for risk-adjusted CUSUM charts based on multiresponses allows each chart to be designed for the corresponding patient sequence of a surgeon or a hospital and therefore does not require estimating or monitoring the patients' risk distribution. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  7. Rational Multi-curve Models with Counterparty-risk Valuation Adjustments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Crépey, Stéphane; Macrina, Andrea; Nguyen, Tuyet Mai

    2016-01-01

    We develop a multi-curve term structure set-up in which the modelling ingredients are expressed by rational functionals of Markov processes. We calibrate to London Interbank Offer Rate swaptions data and show that a rational two-factor log-normal multi-curve model is sufficient to match market da...... with regulatory obligations. In order to compute counterparty-risk valuation adjustments, such as credit valuation adjustment, we show how default intensity processes with rational form can be derived. We flesh out our study by applying the results to a basis swap contract....... with accuracy. We elucidate the relationship between the models developed and calibrated under a risk-neutral measure Q and their consistent equivalence class under the real-world probability measure P. The consistent P-pricing models are applied to compute the risk exposures which may be required to comply...

  8. Simple risk stratification at admission to identify patients with reduced mortality from primary angioplasty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thune, Jens Jakob; Hoefsten, Dan Eik; Lindholm, Matias Greve

    2005-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Randomized trials comparing fibrinolysis with primary angioplasty for acute ST-elevation myocardial infarction have demonstrated a beneficial effect of primary angioplasty on the combined end point of death, reinfarction, and disabling stroke but not on all-cause death. Identifying...... a patient group with reduced mortality from an invasive strategy would be important for early triage. The Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) risk score is a simple validated integer score that makes it possible to identify high-risk patients on admission to hospital. We hypothesized that a high...... as high risk. There was a significant interaction between risk status and effect of primary angioplasty (P=0.008). In the low-risk group, there was no difference in mortality (primary angioplasty, 8.0%; fibrinolysis, 5.6%; P=0.11); in the high-risk group, there was a significant reduction in mortality...

  9. Coffee consumption after myocardial infarction and risk of cardiovascular mortality: a prospective analysis in the Alpha Omega Cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Dongen, Laura H; Mölenberg, Famke Jm; Soedamah-Muthu, Sabita S; Kromhout, Daan; Geleijnse, Johanna M

    2017-10-01

    Background: Consumption of coffee, one of the most popular beverages around the world, has been associated with a lower risk of cardiovascular and all-cause mortality in population-based studies. However, little is known about these associations in patient populations. Objective: This prospective study aimed to examine the consumption of caffeinated and decaffeinated coffee in relation to cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality, ischemic heart disease (IHD) mortality, and all-cause mortality in patients with a prior myocardial infarction (MI). Design: We included 4365 Dutch patients from the Alpha Omega Cohort who were aged 60-80 y (21% female) and had experienced an MI coffee consumption over the past month was collected with a 203-item validated food-frequency questionnaire. Causes of death were monitored until 1 January 2013. HRs for mortality in categories of coffee consumption were obtained from multivariable Cox proportional hazard models, adjusting for lifestyle and dietary factors. Results: Most patients (96%) drank coffee, and the median total coffee intake was 375 mL/d (∼3 cups/d). During a median follow-up of 7.1 y, a total of 945 deaths occurred, including 396 CVD-related and 266 IHD-related deaths. Coffee consumption was inversely associated with CVD mortality, with HRs of 0.69 (95% CI: 0.54, 0.89) for >2-4 cups/d and 0.72 (0.55, 0.95) for >4 cups/d, compared with 0-2 cups/d. Corresponding HRs were 0.77 (95% CI: 0.57, 1.05) and 0.68 (95% CI: 0.48, 0.95) for IHD mortality and 0.84 (95% CI: 0.71, 1.00) and 0.82 (95% CI: 0.68, 0.98) for all-cause mortality, respectively. Similar associations were found for decaffeinated coffee and for coffee with additives. Conclusion: Drinking coffee, either caffeinated or decaffeinated, may lower the risk of CVD and IHD mortality in patients with a prior MI. This study was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT03192410. © 2017 American Society for Nutrition.

  10. Mortality risk in patients with chronic rhinosinusitis and its association to asthma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alt, Jeremiah A; Thomas, Andrew J; Curtin, Karen; Wong, Jathine; Rudmik, Luke; Orlandi, Richard R

    2017-06-01

    Chronic rhinosinusitis (CRS) is a highly prevalent inflammatory condition, with significant effects on morbidity and quality of life. Given that other chronic inflammatory conditions have been associated with increased mortality risk, we sought to evaluate the relationship between mortality and CRS including the influence of asthma. Our objective was to determine if CRS, with or without asthma, is associated with altered risk of mortality. Using a statewide population database, we retrospectively identified 27,005 patients diagnosed with CRS between 1996 and 2012, and 134,440 unaffected controls matched 5:1 on birth year and sex. Risk of mortality was determined from Cox models and Kaplan-Meier curves were used to compare survival. A significant interaction between CRS and asthma status was observed in which CRS appeared to confer a protective effect in asthma patients. Asthma, when present, increased mortality in CRS-negative controls (p-interaction risk (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.80; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.74 to 0.85) compared to controls. However, in patients diagnosed at or before the median age of CRS onset (42 years) independent of asthma status, survival was not improved (HR = 0.98; 95% CI, 0.81 to 1.18). Risk of mortality was greater in CRS with nasal polyps (n = 1643) compared to 25,362 polyp-negative CRS patients (HR = 1.38; 95% CI, 1.09 to 1.77). CRS was associated with lower risk of mortality compared to controls, and appeared to mitigate increased mortality from asthma. We posit that better survival conferred by CRS may be secondary to treatment. However, the etiology of this relationship and the effect of CRS treatment on mortality are unknown. © 2017 ARS-AAOA, LLC.

  11. Mortality risk amongst nursing home residents evacuated after the Fukushima nuclear accident: a retrospective cohort study.

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    Shuhei Nomura

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Safety of evacuation is of paramount importance in disaster planning for elderly people; however, little effort has been made to investigate evacuation-related mortality risks. After the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Plant accident we conducted a retrospective cohort survival survey of elderly evacuees. METHODS: A total of 715 residents admitted to five nursing homes in Minamisoma city, Fukushima Prefecture in the five years before 11th March 2011 joined this retrospective cohort study. Demographic and clinical characteristics were drawn from facility medical records. Evacuation histories were tracked until the end of 2011. The evacuation's impact on mortality was assessed using mortality incidence density and hazard ratios in Cox proportional hazards regression. RESULTS: Overall relative mortality risk before and after the earthquake was 2.68 (95% CI: 2.04-3.49. There was a substantial variation in mortality risks across the facilities ranging from 0.77 (95% CI: 0.34-1.76 to 2.88 (95% CI: 1.74-4.76. No meaningful influence of evacuation distance on mortality was observed although the first evacuation from the original facility caused significantly higher mortality than subsequent evacuations, with a hazard ratio of 1.94 (95% CI: 1.07-3.49. CONCLUSION: High mortality, due to initial evacuation, suggests that evacuation of the elderly was not the best life-saving strategy for the Fukushima nuclear disaster. Careful consideration of the relative risks of radiation exposure and the risks and benefits of evacuation is essential. Facility-specific disaster response strategies, including in-site relief and care, may have a strong influence on survival. Where evacuation is necessary, careful planning and coordination with other nursing homes, evacuation sites and government disaster agencies is essential to reduce the risk of mortality.

  12. Relationship between polycythemia and in-hospital mortality in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease patients with low-risk pulmonary embolism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Lu; Chughtai, Aamer Rasheed; Jiang, Hongli; Gao, Lingyun; Yang, Yan; Yang, Yang; Liu, Yuejian

    2016-01-01

    Backgrounds Pulmonary embolism (PE) is frequent in subjects with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and associated with high mortality. This multi-center retrospective study was performed to investigate if secondary polycythemia is associated with in-hospital mortality in COPD patients with low-risk PE. Methods We identified COPD patients with proven PE between October, 2005 and October, 2015. Patients in risk classes III–V on the basis of the PESI score were excluded. We extracted demographic, clinical and laboratory information at the time of admission from medical records. All subjects were followed until hospital discharge to identify all-cause mortality. Results We enrolled 629 consecutive patients with COPD and PE at low risk: 132 of them (21.0%) with and 497 (79.0%) without secondary polycythemia. Compared with those without polycythemia, the polycythemia group had significantly lower forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1) level (0.9±0.3 vs. 1.4±0.5, P=0.000), lower PaO2 and SpO2 as well as higher PaCO2 (P=0.03, P=0.03 and P=0.000, respectively). COPD patients with polycythemia had a higher proportion of arrhythmia in electrocardiogram (ECG) (49.5% vs. 35.7%, P=0.02), a longer hospital duration time (15.3±10.1 vs. 9.7±9.1, P=0.001), a higher mechanical ventilation rate (noninvasive and invasive, 51.7% vs. 30.3%, P=0.04 and 31.0% vs. 7.9%, P=0.04, respectively), and a higher in-hospital mortality (12.1% vs. 6.6%, P=0.04). Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that polycythemia was associated with mortality in COPD patients with low-risk PE (adjusted OR 1.11; 95% CI, 1.04–1.66). Conclusions Polycythemia is an independent risk factor for all-cause in-hospital mortality in COPD patients with PE at low risk. PMID:28066591

  13. Effects of Social Support Network Size on Mortality Risk: Considerations by Diabetes Status.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loprinzi, Paul D; Ford, M Allison

    2018-05-01

    Previous work demonstrates that social support is inversely associated with mortality risk. Less research, however, has examined the effects of the size of the social support network on mortality risk among those with and without diabetes, which was the purpose of this study. Data from the 1999-2008 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey were used, with participants followed through 2011. This study included 1,412 older adults (≥60 years of age) with diabetes and 5,872 older adults without diabetes. The size of the social support network was assessed via self-report and reported as the number of participants' close friends. Among those without diabetes, various levels of social support network size were inversely associated with mortality risk. However, among those with diabetes, only those with a high social support network size (i.e., at least six close friends) had a reduced risk of all-cause mortality. That is, compared to those with zero close friends, those with diabetes who had six or more close friends had a 49% reduced risk of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio 0.51, 95% CI 0.27-0.94). To mitigate mortality risk, a greater social support network size may be needed for those with diabetes.

  14. Hyponatremia, all-cause mortality, and risk of cancer diagnoses in the primary care setting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Selmer, Christian; Madsen, Jesper Clausager; Torp-Pedersen, Christian

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Hyponatremia has been associated with increased all-cause mortality in hospitalized individuals. In this study we examine the risk of all-cause mortality in primary care subjects with hyponatremia, while also exploring the association with subsequent diagnosis of cancer. METHODS...... was all-cause mortality, and secondary outcomes overall and specific types of cancer diagnoses. RESULTS: Among 625,114 included subjects (mean age 49.9 [SD±18.4] years; 43.5% males), 90,926 (14.5%) deaths occurred. All-cause mortality was increased in mild, moderate, and severe hyponatremia (age...... of hyponatremia are associated with all-cause mortality in primary care patients and hyponatremia is linked to an increased risk of being diagnosed with any cancer, particularly pulmonary and head and neck cancers....

  15. Risk factors associated with on-farm mortality in Swedish dairy cows

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Alvåsen, K.; Jansson Mörk, M.; Dohoo, I. R.

    2014-01-01

    Dairy cow mortality (unassisted death and euthanasia) has increased, worldwide and in Sweden. On-farm mortality indicates suboptimal herd health or welfare and causes financial loss for the dairy producer. The objective of this study was to identify cow-level risk factors associated with on......). The effects of potential risk factors on on-farm cow mortality were analysed using a Weibull proportional hazard model with a gamma distributed frailty effect common to cows within herd. The event of interest (failure) was euthanasia or unassisted death. An observation was right censored if the cow...

  16. Survived infancy but still vulnerable: spatial-temporal trends and risk factors for child mortality in the Agincourt rural sub-district, South Africa, 1992-2007

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    Benn Sartorius

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Targeting of health interventions to poor children at highest risk of mortality are promising approaches for enhancing equity. Methods have emerged to accurately quantify excess risk and identify space-time disparities. This provides useful and detailed information for guiding policy. A spatio-temporal analysis was performed to identify risk factors associated with child (1-4 years mortality in the Agincourt sub-district, South Africa, to assess temporal changes in child mortality patterns within the study site between 1992 and 2007, and to produce all-cause and cause-specific mortality maps to identify high risk areas. Demographic, maternal, paternal and fertility-related factors, household mortality experience, distance to health care facility and socio-economic status were among the examined risk factors. The analysis was carried out by fitting a Bayesian discrete time Bernoulli survival geostatistical model using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. Bayesian kriging was used to produce mortality risk maps. Significant temporal increase in child mortality was observed due to the HIV epidemic. A distinct spatial risk pattern was observed with higher risk areas being concentrated in poorer settlements on the eastern part of the study area, largely inhabited by former Mozambican refugees. The major risk factors for childhood mortality, following multivariate adjustment, were mother’s death (especially when due to HIV and tuberculosis, greater number of children under 5 years living in the same household and winter season. This study demonstrates the use of Bayesian geostatistical models for accurately quantifying risk factors and producing maps of child mortality risk in a health and demographic surveillance system. According to the space-time analysis, the southeast and upper central regions of the site appear to have the highest mortality risk. The results inform policies to address health inequalities in the Agincourt sub-district and to

  17. A Risk Prediction Model for In-hospital Mortality in Patients with Suspected Myocarditis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Duo; Zhao, Ruo-Chi; Gao, Wen-Hui; Cui, Han-Bin

    2017-04-05

    Myocarditis is an inflammatory disease of the myocardium that may lead to cardiac death in some patients. However, little is known about the predictors of in-hospital mortality in patients with suspected myocarditis. Thus, the aim of this study was to identify the independent risk factors for in-hospital mortality in patients with suspected myocarditis by establishing a risk prediction model. A retrospective study was performed to analyze the clinical medical records of 403 consecutive patients with suspected myocarditis who were admitted to Ningbo First Hospital between January 2003 and December 2013. A total of 238 males (59%) and 165 females (41%) were enrolled in this study. We divided the above patients into two subgroups (survival and nonsurvival), according to their clinical in-hospital outcomes. To maximize the effectiveness of the prediction model, we first identified the potential risk factors for in-hospital mortality among patients with suspected myocarditis, based on data pertaining to previously established risk factors and basic patient characteristics. We subsequently established a regression model for predicting in-hospital mortality using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. Finally, we identified the independent risk factors for in-hospital mortality using our risk prediction model. The following prediction model for in-hospital mortality in patients with suspected myocarditis, including creatinine clearance rate (Ccr), age, ventricular tachycardia (VT), New York Heart Association (NYHA) classification, gender and cardiac troponin T (cTnT), was established in the study: P = ea/(1 + ea) (where e is the exponential function, P is the probability of in-hospital death, and a = -7.34 + 2.99 × [Ccr model demonstrated that a Ccr prediction model for in-hospital mortality in patients with suspected myocarditis. In addition, sufficient life support during the early stage of the disease might improve the prognoses of patients with

  18. Are passive smoking, air pollution and obesity a greater mortality risk than major radiation incidents?

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    Smith Jim T

    2007-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Following a nuclear incident, the communication and perception of radiation risk becomes a (perhaps the major public health issue. In response to such incidents it is therefore crucial to communicate radiation health risks in the context of other more common environmental and lifestyle risk factors. This study compares the risk of mortality from past radiation exposures (to people who survived the Hiroshima and Nagasaki atomic bombs and those exposed after the Chernobyl accident with risks arising from air pollution, obesity and passive and active smoking. Methods A comparative assessment of mortality risks from ionising radiation was carried out by estimating radiation risks for realistic exposure scenarios and assessing those risks in comparison with risks from air pollution, obesity and passive and active smoking. Results The mortality risk to populations exposed to radiation from the Chernobyl accident may be no higher than that for other more common risk factors such as air pollution or passive smoking. Radiation exposures experienced by the most exposed group of survivors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki led to an average loss of life expectancy significantly lower than that caused by severe obesity or active smoking. Conclusion Population-averaged risks from exposures following major radiation incidents are clearly significant, but may be no greater than those from other much more common environmental and lifestyle factors. This comparative analysis, whilst highlighting inevitable uncertainties in risk quantification and comparison, helps place the potential consequences of radiation exposures in the context of other public health risks.

  19. Blood transfusion in cardiac surgery does increase the risk of 5-year mortality: results from a contemporary series of 1714 propensity-matched patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaw, Richard E; Johnson, Christopher K; Ferrari, Giovanni; Brizzio, Mariano E; Sayles, Kathleen; Rioux, Nancy; Zapolanski, Alex; Grau, Juan B

    2014-04-01

    Studies have found that cardiac surgery patients receiving blood transfusions are at risk for increased mortality during the first year after surgery, but risk appears to decrease after the first year. This study compared 5-year mortality in a propensity-matched cohort of cardiac surgery patients. Between July 1, 2004, and June 30, 2011, 3516 patients had cardiac surgery with 1920 (54.6%) requiring blood transfusion. Propensity matching based on 22 baseline characteristics yielded two balanced groups (blood transfusion group [BTG] and nontransfused control group [NCG]) of 857 patients (1714 in total). The type and number of blood products were compared in the BTG. Operative mortality was higher in BTG versus NCG (2.3% vs. 0.4%; p blood (79.6% vs. 88.0%; p transfusion was independently associated with increased risk for 5-year mortality. Patients receiving cryoprecipitate products had a twofold mortality risk increase (adjusted hazard ratio, 2.106; p = 0.002). Blood transfusion, specifically cryoprecipitates, was independently associated with increased 5-year mortality. Transfusion during cardiac surgery should be limited to patients who are in critical need of blood products. © 2013 American Association of Blood Banks.

  20. Anemia on admission increases the risk of mortality at 6 months and 1 year in hemorrhagic stroke patients in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, Yi-Jun; Liu, Gai-Fen; Liu, Li-Ping; Wang, Chun-Xue; Zhao, Xing-Quan; Wang, Yong-Jun

    2014-07-01

    The relationship between anemia and intracerebral hemorrhage is not clear. We investigated the associations between anemia at the onset and mortality or dependency in patients with intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) registered at the China National Stroke Registry (CNSR). The CNSR recruited consecutive patients with diagnoses of ICH in 2007-2008. Their vascular risk factors, clinical presentations, and outcomes were recorded. The mortality and dependency at 1, 3, and 6 months and at 1 year were compared between ICH patients with and without anemia. A favorable outcome was defined as a modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score of 2 or less and a poor outcome as an mRS score of 3 or more. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to analyze the association between anemia and the 2 outcomes after adjusting for age, gender, body mass index, history of smoking and heavy drinking, National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score on admission, random glucose value on admission, and hematoma volume. Anemia was identified in 484 (19%) ICH patients. Compared with ICH patients without anemia, patients with anemia had no difference in mortality rate at discharge and at 1 month. The rate of mortality at 3 months, 6 months, 1 year, and dependency at 1 year were significantly higher for those patients with anemia than those without (Pmortality at 6 months and 1 year after the initial episode of intercerebral hemorrhage. Copyright © 2014 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Epidemiological characteristics and underlying risk factors for mortality during the autumn 2009 pandemic wave in Mexico.

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    Gerardo Chowell

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Elucidating the role of the underlying risk factors for severe outcomes of the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic could be crucial to define priority risk groups in resource-limited settings in future pandemics. METHODS: We use individual-level clinical data on a large series of ARI (acute respiratory infection hospitalizations from a prospective surveillance system of the Mexican Social Security medical system to analyze clinical features at presentation, admission delays, selected comorbidities and receipt of seasonal vaccine on the risk of A/H1N1-related death. We considered ARI hospitalizations and inpatient-deaths, and recorded demographic, geographic, and medical information on individual patients during August-December, 2009. RESULTS: Seasonal influenza vaccination was associated with a reduced risk of death among A/H1N1 inpatients (OR = 0.43 (95% CI: 0.25, 0.74 after adjustment for age, gender, geography, antiviral treatment, admission delays, comorbidities and medical conditions. However, this result should be interpreted with caution as it could have been affected by factors not directly measured in our study. Moreover, the effect of antiviral treatment against A/H1N1 inpatient death did not reach statistical significance (OR = 0.56 (95% CI: 0.29, 1.10 probably because only 8.9% of A/H1N1 inpatients received antiviral treatment. Moreover, diabetes (OR = 1.6 and immune suppression (OR = 2.3 were statistically significant risk factors for death whereas asthmatic persons (OR = 0.3 or pregnant women (OR = 0.4 experienced a reduced fatality rate among A/H1N1 inpatients. We also observed an increased risk of death among A/H1N1 inpatients with admission delays >2 days after symptom onset (OR = 2.7. Similar associations were also observed for A/H1N1-negative inpatients. CONCLUSIONS: Geographical variation in identified medical risk factors including prevalence of diabetes and immune suppression may in part

  2. Serum angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 is an independent risk factor for in-hospital mortality following open surgical repair of ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nie, Wanpin; Wang, Yan; Yao, Kai; Wang, Zheng; Wu, Hao

    2016-01-01

    Open surgical repair (OSR) is a conventional surgical method used in the repair a ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA); however, OSR results in high perioperative mortality rates. The level of serum angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) has been reported to be an independent risk factor for postoperative in-hospital mortality following major cardiopulmonary surgery. In the present study, the association of serum ACE2 levels with postoperative in-hospital mortality was investigated in patients undergoing OSR for ruptured AAA. The study enrolled 84 consecutive patients underwent OSR for ruptured AAA and were subsequently treated in the intensive care unit. Patients who succumbed postoperatively during hospitalization were defined as non-survivors. Serum ACE2 levels were measured in all patients prior to and following the surgery using ELISA kits. The results indicated that non-survivors showed significantly lower mean preoperative and postoperative serum ACE2 levels when compared with those in survivors. Multivariate logistic regression analysis also showed that, subsequent to adjusting for potential confounders, the serum ACE2 level on preoperative day 1 showed a significant negative association with the postoperative in-hospital mortality. This was confirmed by multivariate hazard ratio analysis, which showed that, subsequent to adjusting for the various potential confounders, the risk of postoperative in-hospital mortality remained significantly higher in the two lowest serum ACE2 level quartiles compared with that in the highest quartile on preoperative day 1. In conclusion, the present study provided the first evidence supporting that the serum ACE2 level is an independent risk factor for the in-hospital mortality following OSR for ruptured AAA. Furthermore, low serum ACE2 levels on preoperative day 1 were found to be associated with increased postoperative in-hospital mortality. Therefore, the serum ACE2 level on preoperative day 1 may be a potential

  3. Risks of mortality and morbidity from worldwide terrorism: 1968-2004.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bogen, Kenneth T; Jones, Edwin D

    2006-02-01

    Worldwide data on terrorist incidents between 1968 and 2004 gathered by the RAND Corporation and the Oklahoma City National Memorial Institute for the Prevention of Terrorism (MIPT) were assessed for patterns and trends in morbidity/mortality. Adjusted data analyzed involve a total of 19,828 events, 7,401 "adverse" events (each causing >or= 1 victim), and 86,568 "casualties" (injuries), of which 25,408 were fatal. Most terror-related adverse events, casualties, and deaths involved bombs and guns. Weapon-specific patterns and terror-related risk levels in Israel (IS) have differed markedly from those of all other regions combined (OR). IS had a fatal fraction of casualties about half that of OR, but has experienced relatively constant lifetime terror-related casualty risks on the order of 0.5%--a level 2 to 3 orders of magnitude more than those experienced in OR that increased approximately 100-fold over the same period. Individual event fatality has increased steadily, the median increasing from 14% to 50%. Lorenz curves obtained indicate substantial dispersion among victim/event rates: about half of all victims were caused by the top 2.5% (or 10%) of harm-ranked events in OR (or IS). Extreme values of victim/event rates were approximated fairly well by generalized Pareto models (typically used to fit to data on forest fires, sea levels, earthquakes, etc.). These results were in turn used to forecast maximum OR- and IS-specific victims/event rates through 2080, illustrating empirically-based methods that could be applied to improve strategies to assess, prevent, and manage terror-related risks and consequences.

  4. The effect of gender, age, and symptom severity in late-life depression on the risk of all-cause mortality: The Bambuí Cohort Study of Aging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diniz, Breno S.; Reynolds, Charles F.; Butters, Meryl A.; Dew, Mary Amanda; Firmo, Josélia O. A.; Lima-Costa, Maria Fernanda; Castro-Costa, Erico

    2014-01-01

    Background Increased mortality risk and its moderators is an important, but still under recognized, negative outcome of Late-Life Depression (LLD). Therefore, we aimed to evaluate whether LLD is a risk factor for all-cause mortality in a population-based study with over ten years of follow-up, and addressed the moderating effect of gender and symptom severity on mortality risk. Methods This analysis used data from the Bambuí Cohort Study of Aging. The study population comprised 1.508 (86.5%) of all eligible 1.742 elderly residents. Depressive symptoms were annually evaluated by the GHQ-12, with scores of 5 or higher indicating clinically significant depression. From 1997 to 2007, 441 participants died during 10,648 person-years of follow-up. We estimated the hazard ratio for mortality risk by Cox regression analyses. Results Depressive symptoms were a risk factor for all-cause mortality after adjusting for confounding lifestyle and clinical factors (adjusted HR=1.24 CI95% [1.00–1.55], p=0.05). Mortality risk was significantly elevated in men (adjusted HR=1.45 CI95% [1.01 – 2.07], p=0.04), but not in women (adjusted HR=1.13 CI95% [0.84 – 1.48], p=0.15). We observed a significant interaction between gender and depressive symptoms on mortality risk ((HR= 1.72 CI95% [1.18 – 2.49], p=0.004). Conclusion The present study provides evidence that LLD is a risk factor for all-cause mortality in the elderly, especially in men. The prevention and adequate treatment of LLD may help to reduce premature disability and death among elders with depressive symptoms. PMID:24353128

  5. Alcohol dependence and risk of somatic diseases and mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holst, Charlotte; Tolstrup, Janne Schurmann; Sørensen, Holger Jelling

    2017-01-01

    AIMS: To (1) estimate sex-specific risks of a comprehensive spectrum of somatic diseases in alcohol-dependent individuals versus a control population, and in the same population to (2) estimate sex-specific risks of dying from the examined somatic diseases. DESIGN: Register-based matched cohort...

  6. Valuation of morbidity and mortality risk reductions. Does context matter?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Seested Nielsen, Jytte; Gyrd-Hansen, Dorte; Kjær, Trine

    2012-01-01

    targeting risks of death or risks of ill health should not necessarily be valued equally across sectors. From a welfare economic perspective, the use of the same estimates across contexts – and especially across sectors – could be misleading and in worst case lead to inefficient resource allocations....

  7. Fasting insulin, insulin resistance, and risk of cardiovascular or all-cause mortality in non-diabetic adults: a meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xiaohong; Li, Jun; Zheng, Shuiping; Luo, Qiuyun; Zhou, Chunmei; Wang, Chaoyang

    2017-10-31

    Studies on elevated fasting insulin or insulin resistance (IR) and cardiovascular or all-cause mortality risk in non-diabetic individuals have yielded conflicting results. This meta-analysis aimed to evaluate the association of elevated fasting insulin levels or IR as defined by homeostasis model assessment of IR (HOMA-IR) with cardiovascular or all-cause mortality in non-diabetic adults. We searched for relevant studies in PubMed and Emabse databases until November 2016. Only prospective observational studies investigating the association of elevated fasting insulin levels or HOMA-IR with cardiovascular or all-cause mortality risk in non-diabetic adults were included. Risk ratio (RR) with its 95% confidence intervals (CIs) was pooled for the highest compared with the lowest category of fasting insulin levels or HOMA-IR. Seven articles involving 26976 non-diabetic adults were included. The pooled, adjusted RR of all-cause mortality comparing the highest with the lowest category was 1.13 (95% CI: 1.00-1.27; P =0.058) for fasting insulin levels and 1.34 (95% CI: 1.11-1.62; P =0.002) for HOMA-IR, respectively. When comparing the highest with the lowest category, the pooled adjusted RR of cardiovascular mortality was 2.11 (95% CI: 1.01-4.41; P =0.048) for HOMA-IR in two studies and 1.40 (95% CI: 0.49-3.96; P =0.526) for fasting insulin levels in one study. IR as measured by HOMA-IR but not fasting insulin appears to be independently associated with greater risk of cardiovascular or all-cause mortality in non-diabetic adults. However, the association of fasting insulin and HOMA-IR with cardiovascular mortality may be unreliable due to the small number of articles included. © 2017 The Author(s).

  8. Are sitting occupations associated with increased all-cause, cancer, and cardiovascular disease mortality risk? A pooled analysis of seven British population cohorts.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emmanuel Stamatakis

    Full Text Available There is mounting evidence for associations between sedentary behaviours and adverse health outcomes, although the data on occupational sitting and mortality risk remain equivocal. The aim of this study was to determine the association between occupational sitting and cardiovascular, cancer and all-cause mortality in a pooled sample of seven British general population cohorts.The sample comprised 5380 women and 5788 men in employment who were drawn from five Health Survey for England and two Scottish Health Survey cohorts. Participants were classified as reporting standing, walking or sitting in their work time and followed up over 12.9 years for mortality. Data were modelled using Cox proportional hazard regression adjusted for age, waist circumference, self-reported general health, frequency of alcohol intake, cigarette smoking, non-occupational physical activity, prevalent cardiovascular disease and cancer at baseline, psychological health, social class, and education.In total there were 754 all-cause deaths. In women, a standing/walking occupation was associated with lower risk of all-cause (fully adjusted hazard ratio [HR] = 0.68, 95% CI 0.52-0.89 and cancer (HR = 0.60, 95% CI 0.43-0.85 mortality, compared to sitting occupations. There were no associations in men. In analyses with combined occupational type and leisure-time physical activity, the risk of all-cause mortality was lowest in participants with non-sitting occupations and high leisure-time activity.Sitting occupations are linked to increased risk for all-cause and cancer mortality in women only, but no such associations exist for cardiovascular mortality in men or women.

  9. Control beliefs and risk for 4-year mortality in older adults: a prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duan-Porter, Wei; Hastings, Susan Nicole; Neelon, Brian; Van Houtven, Courtney Harold

    2017-01-11

    Control beliefs are important psychological factors that likely contribute to heterogeneity in health outcomes for older adults. We evaluated whether control beliefs are associated with risk for 4-year mortality, after accounting for established "classic" biomedical risk factors. We also determined if an enhanced risk model with control beliefs improved identification of individuals with low vs. high mortality risk. We used nationally representative data from the Health and Retirement Study (2006-2012) for adults 50 years or older in 2006 (n = 7313) or 2008 (n = 6301). We assessed baseline perceived global control (measured as 2 dimensions-"constraints" and "mastery"), and health-specific control. We also obtained baseline data for 12 established biomedical risk factors of 4-year mortality: age, sex, 4 medical conditions (diabetes mellitus, cancer, lung disease and heart failure), body mass index less than 25 kg/m 2 , smoking, and 4 functional difficulties (with bathing, managing finances, walking several blocks and pushing or pulling heavy objects). Deaths within 4 years of follow-up were determined through interviews with respondents' family and the National Death Index. After accounting for classic biomedical risk factors, perceived constraints were significantly associated with higher mortality risk (third quartile scores odds ratio [OR] 1.37, 95% CI 1.03-1.81; fourth quartile scores OR 1.45, 95% CI, 1.09-1.92), while health-specific control was significantly associated with lower risk (OR 0.69-0.78 for scores above first quartile). Higher perceived mastery scores were not consistently associated with decreased risk. The enhanced model with control beliefs found an additional 3.5% of participants (n = 222) with low predicted risk of 4-year mortality (i.e., 4% or less); observed mortality for these individuals was 1.8% during follow-up. Compared with participants predicted to have low mortality risk only by the classic biomedical model

  10. Risk-adjusted antibiotic consumption in 34 public acute hospitals in Ireland, 2006 to 2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oza, Ajay; Donohue, Fionnuala; Johnson, Howard; Cunney, Robert

    2016-01-01

    As antibiotic consumption rates between hospitals can vary depending on the characteristics of the patients treated, risk-adjustment that compensates for the patient-based variation is required to assess the impact of any stewardship measures. The aim of this study was to investigate the usefulness of patient-based administrative data variables for adjusting aggregate hospital antibiotic consumption rates. Data on total inpatient antibiotics and six broad subclasses were sourced from 34 acute hospitals from 2006 to 2014. Aggregate annual patient administration data were divided into explanatory variables, including major diagnostic categories, for each hospital. Multivariable regression models were used to identify factors affecting antibiotic consumption. Coefficient of variation of the root mean squared errors (CV-RMSE) for the total antibiotic usage model was very good (11%), however, the value for two of the models was poor (> 30%). The overall inpatient antibiotic consumption increased from 82.5 defined daily doses (DDD)/100 bed-days used in 2006 to 89.2 DDD/100 bed-days used in 2014; the increase was not significant after risk-adjustment. During the same period, consumption of carbapenems increased significantly, while usage of fluoroquinolones decreased. In conclusion, patient-based administrative data variables are useful for adjusting hospital antibiotic consumption rates, although additional variables should also be employed. PMID:27541730

  11. [Family characteristics, organic risk factors, psychopathological picture and premorbid adjustment of hospitalized adolescent patients].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Małkiewicz-Borkowska, M; Namysłowska, I; Siewierska, A; Puzyńska, E; Sredniawa, H; Zechowski, C; Iwanek, A; Ruszkowska, E

    1996-01-01

    The relation of some family characteristics such as cohesion and adaptability with organic risk factors, developmental psychopathology, clinical picture and premorbid adjustment was assessed in the group of 100 hospitalized adolescent patients and families. We found correlation between: some of organic risk factors (pathology of neonatal period, pathology of early childhood), some of indicators of developmental psychopathology (eating disorders, conduct disorders), some of clinical signs (mannerism, grandiosity, hostility, suspciousness, disturbances of content of thinking), premorbid adjustment, and variables related to families, described before. We think that biological variables characterizing child (pathology of neonatal period, pathology of early childhood) have an influence on some family characteristics as independent variable. General system theory and circular thinking support these conclusions. In order to verify them, it is necessary to undertake further investigations, based on other methodology, using this results as preliminary findings.

  12. Funding issues for Victorian hospitals: the risk-adjusted vision beyond casemix funding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antioch, K; Walsh, M

    2000-01-01

    This paper discusses casemix funding issues in Victoria impacting on teaching hospitals. For casemix payments to be acceptable, the average price and cost weights must be set at an appropriate standard. The average price is based on a normative, policy basis rather than benchmarking. The 'averaging principle' inherent in cost weights has resulted in some AN-DRG weights being too low for teaching hospitals that are key State-wide providers of high complexity services such as neurosurgery and trauma. Casemix data have been analysed using international risk adjustment methodologies to successfully negotiate with the Victorian State Government for specified grants for several high complexity AN-DRGs. A risk-adjusted capitation funding model has also been developed for cystic fibrosis patients treated by The Alfred, called an Australian Health Maintenance Organisation (AHMO). This will facilitate the development of similar models by both the Victorian and Federal governments.

  13. Inter-arm blood pressure difference and mortality: a cohort study in an asymptomatic primary care population at elevated cardiovascular risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Christopher E; Taylor, Rod S; Butcher, Isabella; Stewart, Marlene Cw; Price, Jackie; Fowkes, F Gerald R; Shore, Angela C; Campbell, John L

    2016-05-01

    Differences in blood pressure between arms are associated with increased cardiovascular mortality in cohorts with established vascular disease or substantially elevated cardiovascular risk. To explore the association of inter-arm difference (IAD) with mortality in a community-dwelling cohort that is free of cardiovascular disease. Cohort analysis of a randomised controlled trial in central Scotland, from April 1998 to October 2008. Volunteers from Lanarkshire, Glasgow, and Edinburgh, free of pre-existing vascular disease and with an ankle-brachial index ≤0.95, had systolic blood pressure measured in both arms at recruitment. Inter-arm blood pressure differences were calculated and examined for cross-sectional associations and differences in prospective survival. Outcome measures were cardiovascular events and all-cause mortality during mean follow-up of 8.2 years. Based on a single pair of measurements, 60% of 3350 participants had a systolic IAD ≥5 mmHg and 38% ≥10 mmHg. An IAD ≥5 mmHg was associated with increased cardiovascular mortality (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 1.91, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.19 to 3.07) and all-cause mortality (adjusted HR 1.44, 95% CI = 1.15 to 1.79). Within the subgroup of 764 participants who had hypertension, IADs of ≥5 mmHg or ≥10 mmHg were associated with both cardiovascular mortality (adjusted HR 2.63, 95% CI = 0.97 to 7.02, and adjusted HR 2.96, 95% CI = 1.27 to 6.88, respectively) and all-cause mortality (adjusted HR 1.67, 95% CI = 1.05 to 2.66, and adjusted HR 1.63, 95% CI = 1.06 to 2.50, respectively). IADs ≥15 mmHg were not associated with survival differences in this population. Systolic IADs in blood pressure are associated with increased risk of cardiovascular events, including mortality, in a large cohort of people free of pre-existing vascular disease. © British Journal of General Practice 2016.

  14. Sleep Duration and the Risk of Mortality From Stroke in Japan: The Takayama Cohort Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kawachi, Toshiaki; Wada, Keiko; Nakamura, Kozue; Tsuji, Michiko; Tamura, Takashi; Konishi, Kie; Nagata, Chisato

    2016-01-01

    Few studies have assessed the associations between sleep duration and stroke subtypes. We examined whether sleep duration is associated with mortality from total stroke, ischemic stroke, and hemorrhagic stroke in a population-based cohort of Japanese men and women. Subjects included 12 875 men and 15 021 women aged 35 years or older in 1992, who were followed until 2008. The outcome variable was stroke death (ischemic stroke, hemorrhagic stroke, and total stroke). During follow-up, 611 stroke deaths (354 from ischemic stroke, 217 from hemorrhagic stroke, and 40 from undetermined stroke) were identified. Compared with 7 h of sleep, ≥9 h of sleep was significantly associated with an increased risk of total stroke and ischemic stroke mortality after controlling for covariates. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were 1.51 (95% CI, 1.16-1.97) and 1.65 (95% CI, 1.16-2.35) for total stroke mortality and ischemic stroke mortality, respectively. Short sleep duration (≤6 h of sleep) was associated with a decreased risk of mortality from total stroke (HR 0.77; 95% CI, 0.59-1.01), although this association was of borderline significance (P = 0.06). The trends for total stroke and ischemic stroke mortality were also significant (P hemorrhagic stroke mortality for ≤6 h of sleep as compared with 7 h of sleep (HR 0.64; 95% CI, 0.42-0.98; P for trend = 0.08). The risk reduction was pronounced for men (HR 0.31; 95% CI, 0.16-0.64). Data suggest that longer sleep duration is associated with increased mortality from total and ischemic stroke. Short sleep duration may be associated with a decreased risk of mortality from hemorrhagic stroke in men.

  15. Screening techniques, sustainability and risk adjusted returns. : - A quantitative study on the Swedish equity funds market

    OpenAIRE

    Ögren, Tobias; Forslund, Petter

    2017-01-01

    Previous studies have primarily compared the performance of sustainable equity funds and non-sustainable equity funds. A meta-analysis over 85 different studies in the field concludes that there is no statistically significant difference in risk-adjusted returns when comparing sustainable funds and non-sustainable funds. This study is thus an extension on previous studies where the authors have chosen to test the two most common sustainability screening techniques to test if there is a differ...

  16. The Impact of Capital Structure on Economic Capital and Risk Adjusted Performance

    OpenAIRE

    Porteous, Bruce; Tapadar, Pradip

    2008-01-01

    The impact that capital structure and capital asset allocation have on financial services firm economic capital and risk adjusted performance is considered. A stochastic modelling approach is used in conjunction with banking and insurance examples. It is demonstrated that gearing up Tier 1 capital with Tier 2 capital can be in the interests of bank Tier 1 capital providers, but may not always be so for insurance Tier 1 capital providers. It is also shown that, by allocating a bank or insuranc...

  17. Does Risk-Adjusted Payment Influence Primary Care Providers' Decision on Where to Set Up Practices?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dietrichson, Jens; Anell, Anders; Dackehag, Margareta

    Providing equal access to health care is an important objective in most health care systems. It is especially pertinent in systems like the Swedish primary care market, where providers are free to establish themselves in any part of the country. To improve equity in access to care, 15 out 21 county...... of private primary care centers in areas with unfavorable socioeconomic and demographic characteristics. More generally, this result indicates that risk-adjusted capitation can significantly affect private providers’ establishment decisions....

  18. Thyroid hormones and mortality risk in euthyroid individuals: the Kangbuk Samsung health study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yiyi; Chang, Yoosoo; Ryu, Seungho; Cho, Juhee; Lee, Won-Young; Rhee, Eun-Jung; Kwon, Min-Jung; Pastor-Barriuso, Roberto; Rampal, Sanjay; Han, Won Kon; Shin, Hocheol; Guallar, Eliseo

    2014-07-01

    Hyperthyroidism and hypothyroidism, both overt and subclinical, are associated with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. The association between thyroid hormones and mortality in euthyroid individuals, however, is unclear. To examine the prospective association between thyroid hormones levels within normal ranges and mortality endpoints. A prospective cohort study of 212 456 middle-aged South Korean men and women who had normal thyroid hormone levels and no history of thyroid disease at baseline from January 1, 2002 to December 31, 2009. Free T4 (FT4), free T3 (FT3), and TSH levels were measured by RIA. Vital status and cause of death ascertainment were based on linkage to the National Death Index death certificate records. After a median follow-up of 4.3 years, 730 participants died (335 deaths from cancer and 112 cardiovascular-related deaths). FT4 was inversely associated with all-cause mortality (HR = 0.77, 95% confidence interval 0.63-0.95, comparing the highest vs lowest quartile of FT4; P for linear trend = .01), and FT3 was inversely associated cancer mortality (HR = 0.62, 95% confidence interval 0.45-0.85; P for linear trend = .001). TSH was not associated with mortality endpoints. In a large cohort of euthyroid men and women, FT4 and FT3 levels within the normal range were inversely associated with the risk of all-cause mortality and cancer mortality, particularly liver cancer mortality.

  19. A validated risk score to estimate mortality risk in patients with dementia and pneumonia: barriers to clinical impact

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Steen, J.T.; Albers, G.; Strunk, E.; Muller, M.T.; Ribbe, M.W.

    2011-01-01

    Background: The clinical impact of risk score use in end-of-life settings is unknown, with reports limited to technical properties. Methods: We conducted a mixed-methods study to evaluate clinical impact of a validated mortality risk score aimed at informing prognosis and supporting clinicians in

  20. A contemporary risk model for predicting 30-day mortality following percutaneous coronary intervention in England and Wales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McAllister, Katherine S L; Ludman, Peter F; Hulme, William; de Belder, Mark A; Stables, Rodney; Chowdhary, Saqib; Mamas, Mamas A; Sperrin, Matthew; Buchan, Iain E

    2016-05-01

    The current risk model for percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) in the UK is based on outcomes of patients treated in a different era of interventional cardiology. This study aimed to create a new model, based on a contemporary cohort of PCI treated patients, which would: predict 30 day mortality; provide good discrimination; and be well calibrated across a broad risk-spectrum. The model was derived from a training dataset of 336,433 PCI cases carried out between 2007 and 2011 in England and Wales, with 30 day mortality provided by record linkage. Candidate variables were selected on the basis of clinical consensus and data quality. Procedures in 2012 were used to perform temporal validation of the model. The strongest predictors of 30-day mortality were: cardiogenic shock; dialysis; and the indication for PCI and the degree of urgency with which it was performed. The model had an area under the receiver operator characteristic curve of 0.85 on the training data and 0.86 on validation. Calibration plots indicated a good model fit on development which was maintained on validation. We have created a contemporary model for PCI that encompasses a range of clinical risk, from stable elective PCI to emergency primary PCI and cardiogenic shock. The model is easy to apply and based on data reported in national registries. It has a high degree of discrimination and is well calibrated across the risk spectrum. The examination of key outcomes in PCI audit can be improved with this risk-adjusted model. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  1. Trends in birth weight-specific and -adjusted infant mortality rates in Taiwan between 2004 and 2011

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fu-Wen Liang

    2018-06-01

    Conclusion: In countries with an increasing proportion of VLBW live births, birth weight-specific or -adjusted IMRs are more appropriate than other indices for accurately assessing the real extent of reduction in IMRs.

  2. Improved implementation of the risk-adjusted Bernoulli CUSUM chart to monitor surgical outcome quality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keefe, Matthew J; Loda, Justin B; Elhabashy, Ahmad E; Woodall, William H

    2017-06-01

    The traditional implementation of the risk-adjusted Bernoulli cumulative sum (CUSUM) chart for monitoring surgical outcome quality requires waiting a pre-specified period of time after surgery before incorporating patient outcome information. We propose a simple but powerful implementation of the risk-adjusted Bernoulli CUSUM chart that incorporates outcome information as soon as it is available, rather than waiting a pre-specified period of time after surgery. A simulation study is presented that compares the performance of the traditional implementation of the risk-adjusted Bernoulli CUSUM chart to our improved implementation. We show that incorporating patient outcome information as soon as it is available leads to quicker detection of process deterioration. Deterioration of surgical performance could be detected much sooner using our proposed implementation, which could lead to the earlier identification of problems. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press in association with the International Society for Quality in Health Care. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

  3. Household adjustment to flood risk: a survey of coastal residents in Texas and Florida, United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brody, Samuel D; Lee, Yoonjeong; Highfield, Wesley E

    2017-07-01

    Individual households have increasingly borne responsibility for reducing the adverse impacts of flooding on their property. Little observational research has been conducted, however, at the household level to examine the major factors contributing to the selection of a particular household adjustment. This study addresses the issue by evaluating statistically the factors influencing the adoption of various household flood hazard adjustments. The results indicate that respondents with higher-value homes or longer housing tenure are more likely to adopt structural and expensive techniques. In addition, the information source and the Community Rating System (CRS) score for the jurisdiction where the household is located have a significant bearing on household adjustment. In contrast, proximity to risk zones and risk perception yield somewhat mixed results or behave counter to assumptions in the literature. The study findings provide insights that will be of value to governments and decision-makers interested in encouraging homeowners to take protective action given increasing flood risk. © 2017 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2017.

  4. Suboptimal decision making by children with ADHD in the face of risk: Poor risk adjustment and delay aversion rather than general proneness to taking risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sørensen, Lin; Sonuga-Barke, Edmund; Eichele, Heike; van Wageningen, Heidi; Wollschlaeger, Daniel; Plessen, Kerstin Jessica

    2017-02-01

    Suboptimal decision making in the face of risk (DMR) in children with attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) may be mediated by deficits in a number of different neuropsychological processes. We investigated DMR in children with ADHD using the Cambridge Gambling Task (CGT) to distinguish difficulties in adjusting to changing probabilities of choice outcomes (so-called risk adjustment) from general risk proneness, and to distinguish these 2 processes from delay aversion (the tendency to choose the least delayed option) and impairments in the ability to reflect on choice options. Based on previous research, we predicted that suboptimal performance on this task in children with ADHD would be primarily relate to problems with risk adjustment and delay aversion rather than general risk proneness. Drug naïve children with ADHD (n = 36), 8 to 12 years, and an age-matched group of typically developing children (n = 34) performed the CGT. As predicted, children with ADHD were not more prone to making risky choices (i.e., risk proneness). However, they had difficulty adjusting to changing risk levels and were more delay aversive-with these 2 effects being correlated. Our findings add to the growing body of evidence that children with ADHD do not favor risk taking per se when performing gambling tasks, but rather may lack the cognitive skills or motivational style to appraise changing patterns of risk effectively. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  5. Limitations of the Parsonnet score for measuring risk stratified mortality in the north west of England

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wynne-Jones, K; Jackson, M; Grotte, G; Bridgewater, B; North, W

    2000-01-01

    OBJECTIVE—To study the use of the Parsonnet score to predict mortality following adult cardiac surgery.
DESIGN—Prospective study.
SETTING—All centres performing adult cardiac surgery in the north west of England.
SUBJECTS—8210 patients undergoing surgery between April 1997 and March 1999.
MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES—Risk factors and in-hospital mortality were recorded according to agreed definitions. Ten per cent of cases from each centre were selected at random for validation. A Parsonnet score was derived for each patient and its predictive ability was studied.
RESULTS—Data collection was complete. The operative mortality was 3.5% (95% confidence interval 3.1% to 3.9%), ranging from 2.7% to 3.8% across the centres. On validation, the incidence of discrepancies ranged from 0% to 13% for the different risk factors. The predictive ability of the Parsonnet score measured by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.74. The mean Parsonnet score for the region was 7.0, giving an observed to expected mortality ratio of 0.51 (range 0.4 to 0.64 across the centres). A new predictive model was derived from the data by multivariate analysis which includes nine objective risk factors, all with a significant association with mortality, which highlights some of the deficits of the Parsonnet score.
CONCLUSIONS—Risk stratified mortality data were collected on 100% of patients undergoing adult cardiac surgery in two years within a defined geographical region and were used to set an audit standard. Problems with the Parsonnet score of subjectivity, inclusion of many items not associated with mortality, and the overprediction of mortality have been highlighted.


Keywords: risk stratification; cardiac surgery; Parsonnet score; audit PMID:10862595

  6. Risk factors for perinatal mortality in an urban area of Southern Brazil, 1993

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana M. B. Menezes

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: Although there was a considerable reduction in infant mortality in Pelotas, Rio Grande do Sul in the last decade, its perinatal causes were reduced only by 28%. The associated factors of these causes were analised. MATERIAL AND METHOD: All hospital births and perinatal deaths were assessed by daily visits to all the maternity hospitals in the city, throughout 1993 and including the first week of 1994. RESULTS: The perinatal mortality rate was 22.1 per thousand births. The multivariate analysis showed the following risk factors: low socioeconomic level, male sex and maternal age above 35 years . Among multigravidae women, the fetal mortality rate was significantly increased for mothers with a previously low birthweight and a previous stillbirth. For early neonatal mortality the risk was significantly increased by a smaller number of antenatal visits than 5 and low birthweight. CONCLUSIONS: Main risk factors for perinatal mortality: low socioeconomic level, maternal age above 35 years and male sex. For early neonatal mortality the risk was significantly increased by a smaller number of antenatal visits than 5 and low birthweight.

  7. Reducing mortality risk by targeting specific air pollution sources: Suva, Fiji.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isley, C F; Nelson, P F; Taylor, M P; Stelcer, E; Atanacio, A J; Cohen, D D; Mani, F S; Maata, M

    2018-01-15

    Health implications of air pollution vary dependent upon pollutant sources. This work determines the value, in terms of reduced mortality, of reducing ambient particulate matter (PM 2.5 : effective aerodynamic diameter 2.5μm or less) concentration due to different emission sources. Suva, a Pacific Island city with substantial input from combustion sources, is used as a case-study. Elemental concentration was determined, by ion beam analysis, for PM 2.5 samples from Suva, spanning one year. Sources of PM 2.5 have been quantified by positive matrix factorisation. A review of recent literature has been carried out to delineate the mortality risk associated with these sources. Risk factors have then been applied for Suva, to calculate the possible mortality reduction that may be achieved through reduction in pollutant levels. Higher risk ratios for black carbon and sulphur resulted in mortality predictions for PM 2.5 from fossil fuel combustion, road vehicle emissions and waste burning that surpass predictions for these sources based on health risk of PM 2.5 mass alone. Predicted mortality for Suva from fossil fuel smoke exceeds the national toll from road accidents in Fiji. The greatest benefit for Suva, in terms of reduced mortality, is likely to be accomplished by reducing emissions from fossil fuel combustion (diesel), vehicles and waste burning. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  8. Refining Risk Adjustment for the Proposed CMS Surgical Hip and Femur Fracture Treatment Bundled Payment Program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cairns, Mark A; Ostrum, Robert F; Clement, R Carter

    2018-02-21

    The U.S. Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) has been considering the implementation of a mandatory bundled payment program, the Surgical Hip and Femur Fracture Treatment (SHFFT) model. However, bundled payments without appropriate risk adjustment may be inequitable to providers and may restrict access to care for certain patients. The SHFFT proposal includes adjustment using the Diagnosis-Related Group (DRG) and geographic location. The goal of the current study was to identify and quantify patient factors that could improve risk adjustment for SHFFT bundled payments. We retrospectively reviewed a 5% random sample of Medicare data from 2008 to 2012. A total of 27,898 patients were identified who met SHFFT inclusion criteria (DRG 480, 481, and 482). Reimbursement was determined for each patient over the bundle period (the surgical hospitalization and 90 days of post-discharge care). Multivariable regression was performed to test demographic factors, comorbidities, geographic location, and specific surgical procedures for associations with reimbursement. The average reimbursement was $23,632 ± $17,587. On average, reimbursements for male patients were $1,213 higher than for female patients (p payments; e.g., reimbursement for those ≥85 years of age averaged $2,282 ± $389 less than for those aged 65 to 69 (p reimbursement, but dementia was associated with lower payments, by an average of $2,354 ± $243 (p reimbursement ranging from $22,527 to $24,033. Less common procedures varied by >$20,000 in average reimbursement (p reimbursement (p reimbursed by an average of $10,421 ± $543 more than DRG 482. Payments varied significantly by state (p ≤ 0.01). Risk adjustment incorporating specific comorbidities demonstrated better performance than with use of DRG alone (r = 0.22 versus 0.15). Our results suggest that the proposed SHFFT bundled payment model should use more robust risk-adjustment methods to ensure that providers are reimbursed fairly and that

  9. A risk score for predicting mortality in patients with asymptomatic mild to moderate aortic stenosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holme, Ingar; Pedersen, Terje R; Boman, Kurt

    2012-01-01

    BackgroundPrognostic information for asymptomatic patients with aortic stenosis (AS) from prospective studies is scarce and there is no risk score available to assess mortality.ObjectivesTo develop an easily calculable score, from which clinicians could stratify patients into high and lower risk...

  10. Estimating mortality risk reduction and economic benefits from controlling ozone air pollution

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Committee on Estimating Mortality Risk Reduction Benefits from Decreasing Tropospheric Ozone Exposure

    2008-01-01

    ... in life expectancy, and to assess methods for estimating the monetary value of the reduced risk of premature death and increased life expectancy in the context of health-benefits analysis. Estimating Mortality Risk Reduction and Economic Benefits from Controlling Ozone Air Pollution details the committee's findings and posits several recommendations to address these issues.

  11. Obesity and risk of breast cancer mortality in Hispanic and Non-Hispanic white women: the New Mexico Women's Health Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Connor, Avonne E; Baumgartner, Richard N; Pinkston, Christina; Baumgartner, Kathy B

    2013-04-01

    Obesity is reported to be associated with poorer survival in women with breast cancer, regardless of menopausal status. Our purpose was to determine if the associations of obesity with breast cancer-specific, all-cause, and non-breast cancer mortality differ between Hispanic and non-Hispanic white (NHW) women with breast cancer. Data on lifestyle and medical history were collected for incident primary breast cancer cases (298 NHW, 279 Hispanic) in the New Mexico Women's Health Study. Mortality was ascertained through the National Death Index and New Mexico Tumor Registry over 13 years of follow-up. Adjusted Cox regression models indicated a trend towards increased risk for breast cancer-specific mortality in obese NHW women (hazard ratio [HR] 2.07; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.98-4.35) but not in Hispanic women (HR 1.32; 95% CI 0.64-2.74). Obese NHW women had a statistically significant increased risk for all-cause mortality (HR 2.12; 95% CI 1.15-3.90) while Hispanic women did not (HR 1.23; 95% CI 0.71-2.12). Results were similar for non-breast cancer mortality: NHW (HR 2.65; 95% CI 0.90-7.81); Hispanic (HR 2.18; 95% CI 0.77-6.10). Our results suggest that obesity is associated with increased risk for breast cancer-specific mortality in NHW women; however, this association is attenuated in Hispanic women.

  12. Validation of the All Patient Refined Diagnosis Related Group (APR-DRG) Risk of Mortality and Severity of Illness Modifiers as a Measure of Perioperative Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCormick, Patrick J; Lin, Hung-Mo; Deiner, Stacie G; Levin, Matthew A

    2018-03-22

    The All Patient Refined Diagnosis Related Group (APR-DRG) is an inpatient visit classification system that assigns a diagnostic related group, a Risk of Mortality (ROM) subclass and a Severity of Illness (SOI) subclass. While extensively used for cost adjustment, no study has compared the APR-DRG subclass modifiers to the popular Charlson Comorbidity Index as a measure of comorbidity severity in models for perioperative in-hospital mortality. In this study we attempt to validate the use of these subclasses to predict mortality in a cohort of surgical patients. We analyzed all adult (age over 18 years) inpatient non-cardiac surgery at our institution between December 2005 and July 2013. After exclusions, we split the cohort into training and validation sets. We created prediction models of inpatient mortality using the Charlson Comorbidity Index, ROM only, SOI only, and ROM with SOI. Models were compared by receiver-operator characteristic (ROC) curve, area under the ROC curve (AUC), and Brier score. After exclusions, we analyzed 63,681 patient-visits. Overall in-hospital mortality was 1.3%. The median number of ICD-9-CM diagnosis codes was 6 (Q1-Q3 4-10). The median Charlson Comorbidity Index was 0 (Q1-Q3 0-2). When the model was applied to the validation set, the c-statistic for Charlson was 0.865, c-statistic for ROM was 0.975, and for ROM and SOI combined the c-statistic was 0.977. The scaled Brier score for Charlson was 0.044, Brier for ROM only was 0.230, and Brier for ROM and SOI was 0.257. The APR-DRG ROM or SOI subclasses are better predictors than the Charlson Comorbidity Index of in-hospital mortality among surgical patients.

  13. Work history and mortality risks in 90,268 US radiological technologists.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Jason J; Freedman, D Michal; Little, Mark P; Doody, Michele M; Alexander, Bruce H; Kitahara, Cari M; Lee, Terrence; Rajaraman, Preetha; Miller, Jeremy S; Kampa, Diane M; Simon, Steven L; Preston, Dale L; Linet, Martha S

    2014-12-01

    There have been few studies of work history and mortality risks in medical radiation workers. We expanded by 11 years and more outcomes our previous study of mortality risks and work history, a proxy for radiation exposure. Using Cox proportional hazards models, we estimated mortality risks according to questionnaire work history responses from 1983 to 1989 through 2008 by 90,268 US radiological technologists. We controlled for potential confounding by age, birth year, smoking history, body mass index, race and gender. There were 9566 deaths (3329 cancer and 3020 circulatory system diseases). Mortality risks increased significantly with earlier year began working for female breast (p trend=0.01) and stomach cancers (p trend=0.01), ischaemic heart (p trend=0.03) and cerebrovascular diseases (p trend=0.02). The significant trend with earlier year first worked was strongly apparent for breast cancer during baseline through 1997, but not 1998-2008. Risks were similar in the two periods for circulatory diseases. Radiological technologists working ≥5 years before 1950 had elevated mortality from breast cancer (HR=2.05, 95% CI 1.27 to 3.32), leukaemia (HR=2.57, 95% CI 0.96 to 6.68), ischaemic heart disease (HR=1.13, 95% CI 0.96 to 1.33) and cerebrovascular disease (HR=1.28, 95% CI 0.97 to 1.69). No other work history factors were consistently associated with mortality risks from specific cancers or circulatory diseases, or other conditions. Radiological technologists who began working in early periods and for more years before 1950 had increased mortality from a few cancers and some circulatory system diseases, likely reflecting higher occupational radiation exposures in the earlier years. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  14. Maternal union instability and childhood mortality risk in the Global South, 2010-14.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeRose, Laurie F; Salazar-Arango, Andrés; Corcuera García, Paúl; Gas-Aixendri, Montserrat; Rivera, Reynaldo

    2017-07-01

    Efforts to improve child survival in lower-income countries typically focus on fundamental factors such as economic resources and infrastructure provision, even though research from post-industrial countries confirms that family instability has important health consequences. We tested the association between maternal union instability and children's mortality risk in Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Asia using children's actual experience of mortality (discrete-time probit hazard models) as well as their experience of untreated morbidity (probit regression). Children of divorced/separated mothers experience compromised survival chances, but children of mothers who have never been in a union generally do not. Among children of partnered women, those whose mothers have experienced prior union transitions have a higher mortality risk. Targeting children of mothers who have experienced union instability-regardless of current union status-may augment ongoing efforts to reduce childhood mortality, especially in Africa and Latin America where union transitions are common.

  15. Reduction in acute myocardial infarction mortality in the United States: risk-standardized mortality rates from 1995-2006.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krumholz, Harlan M; Wang, Yun; Chen, Jersey; Drye, Elizabeth E; Spertus, John A; Ross, Joseph S; Curtis, Jeptha P; Nallamothu, Brahmajee K; Lichtman, Judith H; Havranek, Edward P; Masoudi, Frederick A; Radford, Martha J; Han, Lein F; Rapp, Michael T; Straube, Barry M; Normand, Sharon-Lise T

    2009-08-19

    During the last 2 decades, health care professional, consumer, and payer organizations have sought to improve outcomes for patients hospitalized with acute myocardial infarction (AMI). However, little has been reported about improvements in hospital short-term mortality rates or reductions in between-hospital variation in short-term mortality rates. To estimate hospital-level 30-day risk-standardized mortality rates (RSMRs) for patients discharged with AMI. Observational study using administrative data and a validated risk model to evaluate 3,195,672 discharges in 2,755,370 patients discharged from nonfederal acute care hospitals in the United States between January 1, 1995, and December 31, 2006. Patients were 65 years or older (mean, 78 years) and had at least a 12-month history of fee-for-service enrollment prior to the index hospitalization. Patients discharged alive within 1 day of an admission not against medical advice were excluded, because it is unlikely that these patients had sustained an AMI. Hospital-specific 30-day all-cause RSMR. At the patient level, the odds of dying within 30 days of admission if treated at a hospital 1 SD above the national average relative to that if treated at a hospital 1 SD below the national average were 1.63 (95% CI, 1.60-1.65) in 1995 and 1.56 (95% CI, 1.53-1.60) in 2006. In terms of hospital-specific RSMRs, a decrease from 18.8% in 1995 to 15.8% in 2006 was observed (odds ratio, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.75-0.77). A reduction in between-hospital heterogeneity in the RSMRs was also observed: the coefficient of variation decreased from 11.2% in 1995 to 10.8%, the interquartile range from 2.8% to 2.1%, and the between-hospital variance from 4.4% to 2.9%. Between 1995 and 2006, the risk-standardized hospital mortality rate for Medicare patients discharged with AMI showed a significant decrease, as did between-hospital variation.

  16. Risk of amphetamine use disorder and mortality among incident users of prescribed stimulant medications in the Veterans Administration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westover, Arthur N; Nakonezny, Paul A; Halm, Ethan A; Adinoff, Bryon

    2018-05-01

    Non-medical use of prescribed stimulant medications is a growing concern. This study's aims were to ascertain the demographics of stimulant medication users compared with non-users, examine temporal trends of stimulant medication use and estimate risk factors for development of amphetamine use disorder (AUD) and mortality among new users of stimulant medications. Cox proportional hazards regression in a retrospective cohort adjusted by baseline covariates. United States, national administrative database of the Veterans Affairs (VA) health-care system. Adult incident users of stimulant medications (n = 78 829) from fiscal years (FY) 2001 to 2012. Primary outcomes were time-to-event: (1) occurrence of AUD diagnosis and (2) death. Baseline covariates included demographic information, Food and Drug Administration (FDA)-approved indications for stimulant use, substance use disorders (SUD) and depression. Stimulant users compared with non-users were younger, more likely to be non-Hispanic white and female. Incident stimulant medication users increased threefold from FY2001-FY2012 and eightfold among adults aged 18-44 years. Nearly one in 10 incident users in FY2012 had a comorbid baseline SUD. Off-label use was common-nearly three of every five incident users in FY2012. Comorbid SUDs among incident stimulant medication users were risk factors for occurrence of AUD during follow-up, with adjusted hazard ratio (AHR) estimates ranging from 1.54 to 2.83 (Ps users in the Veterans Affairs health-care system, measured from fiscal years 2001 to 2012, comorbid substance use disorders were common and were risk factors for development of an amphetamine use disorder (AUD). Increased mortality risk among incident users of stimulant medications was observed among both those who developed an AUD later and those whose use was defined as off-label. © 2017 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  17. Mortality Risk Prediction in Scleroderma-Related Interstitial Lung Disease: The SADL Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morisset, Julie; Vittinghoff, Eric; Elicker, Brett M; Hu, Xiaowen; Le, Stephanie; Ryu, Jay H; Jones, Kirk D; Haemel, Anna; Golden, Jeffrey A; Boin, Francesco; Ley, Brett; Wolters, Paul J; King, Talmadge E; Collard, Harold R; Lee, Joyce S

    2017-11-01

    Interstitial lung disease (ILD) is an important cause of morbidity and mortality in patients with scleroderma (Scl). Risk prediction and prognostication in patients with Scl-ILD are challenging because of heterogeneity in the disease course. We aimed to develop a clinical mortality risk prediction model for Scl-ILD. Patients with Scl-ILD were identified from two ongoing longitudinal cohorts: 135 patients at the University of California, San Francisco (derivation cohort) and 90 patients at the Mayo Clinic (validation cohort). Using these two separate cohorts, a mortality risk prediction model was developed and validated by testing every potential candidate Cox model, each including three or four variables of a possible 19 clinical predictors, for time to death. Model discrimination was assessed using the C-index. Three variables were included in the final risk prediction model (SADL): ever smoking history, age, and diffusing capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide (% predicted). This continuous model had similar performance in the derivation (C-index, 0.88) and validation (C-index, 0.84) cohorts. We created a point scoring system using the combined cohort (C-index, 0.82) and used it to identify a classification with low, moderate, and high mortality risk at 3 years. The SADL model uses simple, readily accessible clinical variables to predict all-cause mortality in Scl-ILD. Copyright © 2017 American College of Chest Physicians. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Estimation of lifetime cumulative incidence and mortality risk of gastric cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taniyama, Yukari; Katanoda, Kota; Charvat, Hadrien; Hori, Megumi; Ohno, Yuko; Sasazuki, Shizuka; Tsugane, Shoichiro

    2017-11-01

    To estimate cumulative incidence and mortality risk for gastric cancer by risk category. Risk was classified into four types according to the presence/absence of Helicobacter pylori infection and chronic atrophic gastritis: in order of lowest to highest risk, Group A: H. pylori(-) and atrophic gastritis(-); Group B: H. pylori(+) and atrophic gastritis(-); Group C:H. pylori(+) and atrophic gastritis(+); and, Group D: H. pylori(-) and atrophic gastritis(+). We used vital statistics for the crude all-cause and crude gastric cancer mortality rates in 2011 and data from population-based cancer registries (the Monitoring of Cancer Incidence in Japan) for gastric cancer incidence in 2011. For relative risk and prevalence, we used the results of a meta-analysis integrating previous studies and data from the Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study for the Next Generation, respectively (baseline survey 2011-16). We calculated the crude incidence and mortality rates and estimated the cumulative risk using a life-table method. The estimated lifetime cumulative incidence risk was 11.4% for men and 5.7% for women. The estimated risk for Groups A, B, C and D was 2.4%, 10.8%, 26.7% and 35.5% for men, and 1.2%, 5.5%, 13.5% and 18.0% for women, respectively. Similarly, the estimated lifetime cumulative mortality risk was 3.9% for men and 1.8% for women. The estimated risk of mortality for Groups A, B, C and D was 0.8%, 3.6%, 9.0% and 12.0% for men, and 0.4%, 1.7%, 4.2% and 5.7% for women, respectively. Our results may be useful for designing individually tailored prevention programs. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press.

  19. Cardiovascular risk factors and mortality in children with chronic ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Traditional and non-traditional cardiovascular risk factors. (CVRFs) play an ..... to other causes of anaemia in CKD such as declining production of erythropoietin .... Care 2008;35(2):329-. 344, vii. https:/doi.org/10.1016/j.pop.2008.01.008. 2.

  20. Decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate and subsequent risk of end-stage renal disease and mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coresh, Josef; Turin, Tanvir Chowdhury; Matsushita, Kunihiro; Sang, Yingying; Ballew, Shoshana H; Appel, Lawrence J; Arima, Hisatomi; Chadban, Steven J; Cirillo, Massimo; Djurdjev, Ognjenka; Green, Jamie A; Heine, Gunnar H; Inker, Lesley A; Irie, Fujiko; Ishani, Areef; Ix, Joachim H; Kovesdy, Csaba P; Marks, Angharad; Ohkubo, Takayoshi; Shalev, Varda; Shankar, Anoop; Wen, Chi Pang; de Jong, Paul E; Iseki, Kunitoshi; Stengel, Benedicte; Gansevoort, Ron T; Levey, Andrew S

    2014-06-25

    The established chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression end point of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) or a doubling of serum creatinine concentration (corresponding to a change in estimated glomerular filtration rate [GFR] of −57% or greater) is a late event. To characterize the association of decline in estimated GFR with subsequent progression to ESRD with implications for using lesser declines in estimated GFR as potential alternative end points for CKD progression. Because most people with CKD die before reaching ESRD, mortality risk also was investigated. Individual meta-analysis of 1.7 million participants with 12,344 ESRD events and 223,944 deaths from 35 cohorts in the CKD Prognosis Consortium with a repeated measure of serum creatinine concentration over 1 to 3 years and outcome data. Transfer of individual participant data or standardized analysis of outputs for random-effects meta-analysis conducted between July 2012 and September 2013, with baseline estimated GFR values collected from 1975 through 2012. End-stage renal disease (initiation of dialysis or transplantation) or all-cause mortality risk related to percentage change in estimated GFR over 2 years, adjusted for potential confounders and first estimated GFR. The adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) of ESRD and mortality were higher with larger estimated GFR decline. Among participants with baseline estimated GFR of less than 60 mL/min/1.73 m2, the adjusted HRs for ESRD were 32.1 (95% CI, 22.3-46.3) for changes of −57% in estimated GFR and 5.4 (95% CI, 4.5-6.4) for changes of −30%. However, changes of −30% or greater (6.9% [95% CI, 6.4%-7.4%] of the entire consortium) were more common than changes of −57% (0.79% [95% CI, 0.52%-1.06%]). This association was strong and consistent across the length of the baseline period (1 to 3 years), baseline estimated GFR, age, diabetes status, or albuminuria. Average adjusted 10-year risk of ESRD (in patients with a baseline estimated GFR of 35 mL/min/1.73 m2

  1. Mate guarding in the Seychelles warbler is energetically costly and adjusted to paternity risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komdeur, J

    2001-10-22

    Males may increase their fitness through extra-pair copulations (copulations outside the pair bond) that result in extra-pair fertilizations, but also risk lost paternity when they leave their own mate unguarded. The fitness costs of cuckoldry for Seychelles warblers (Acrocephalus sechellensis) are considerable because warblers have a single-egg clutch and, given the short breeding season, no time for a successful replacement clutch. Neighbouring males are the primary threat to a male's genetic paternity. Males minimize their loss of paternity by guarding their mates to prevent them from having extra-pair copulations during their fertile period. Here, I provide experimental evidence that mate-guarding behaviour is energetically costly and that the expression of this trade-off is adjusted to paternity risk (local male density). Free-living males that were induced to reduce mate guarding spent significantly more time foraging and gained significantly better body condition than control males. The larger the reduction in mate guarding, the more pronounced was the increase in foraging and body condition (accounting for food availability). An experimental increase in paternity risk resulted in an increase in mate-guarding intensity and a decrease in foraging and body condition, and vice versa. This is examined using both cross-sectional and longitudinal data. This study on the Seychelles warbler offers experimental evidence that mate guarding is energetically costly and adjusted to paternity risk.

  2. External Validation of a Case-Mix Adjustment Model for the Standardized Reporting of 30-Day Stroke Mortality Rates in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Ping; Pan, Yuesong; Wang, Yongjun; Wang, Xianwei; Liu, Liping; Ji, Ruijun; Meng, Xia; Jing, Jing; Tong, Xu; Guo, Li; Wang, Yilong

    2016-01-01

    A case-mix adjustment model has been developed and externally validated, demonstrating promise. However, the model has not been thoroughly tested among populations in China. In our study, we evaluated the performance of the model in Chinese patients with acute stroke. The case-mix adjustment model A includes items on age, presence of atrial fibrillation on admission, National Institutes of Health Stroke Severity Scale (NIHSS) score on admission, and stroke type. Model B is similar to Model A but includes only the consciousness component of the NIHSS score. Both model A and B were evaluated to predict 30-day mortality rates in 13,948 patients with acute stroke from the China National Stroke Registry. The discrimination of the models was quantified by c-statistic. Calibration was assessed using Pearson's correlation coefficient. The c-statistic of model A in our external validation cohort was 0.80 (95% confidence interval, 0.79-0.82), and the c-statistic of model B was 0.82 (95% confidence interval, 0.81-0.84). Excellent calibration was reported in the two models with Pearson's correlation coefficient (0.892 for model A, pcase-mix adjustment model could be used to effectively predict 30-day mortality rates in Chinese patients with acute stroke.

  3. External Validation of a Case-Mix Adjustment Model for the Standardized Reporting of 30-Day Stroke Mortality Rates in China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ping Yu

    Full Text Available A case-mix adjustment model has been developed and externally validated, demonstrating promise. However, the model has not been thoroughly tested among populations in China. In our study, we evaluated the performance of the model in Chinese patients with acute stroke.The case-mix adjustment model A includes items on age, presence of atrial fibrillation on admission, National Institutes of Health Stroke Severity Scale (NIHSS score on admission, and stroke type. Model B is similar to Model A but includes only the consciousness component of the NIHSS score. Both model A and B were evaluated to predict 30-day mortality rates in 13,948 patients with acute stroke from the China National Stroke Registry. The discrimination of the models was quantified by c-statistic. Calibration was assessed using Pearson's correlation coefficient.The c-statistic of model A in our external validation cohort was 0.80 (95% confidence interval, 0.79-0.82, and the c-statistic of model B was 0.82 (95% confidence interval, 0.81-0.84. Excellent calibration was reported in the two models with Pearson's correlation coefficient (0.892 for model A, p<0.001; 0.927 for model B, p = 0.008.The case-mix adjustment model could be used to effectively predict 30-day mortality rates in Chinese patients with acute stroke.

  4. Risk of cardiovascular disease and total mortality in adults with type 1 diabetes: Scottish registry linkage study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shona J Livingstone

    Full Text Available Randomized controlled trials have shown the importance of tight glucose control in type 1 diabetes (T1DM, but few recent studies have evaluated the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD and all-cause mortality among adults with T1DM. We evaluated these risks in adults with T1DM compared with the non-diabetic population in a nationwide study from Scotland and examined control of CVD risk factors in those with T1DM.The Scottish Care Information-Diabetes Collaboration database was used to identify all people registered with T1DM and aged ≥20 years in 2005-2007 and to provide risk factor data. Major CVD events and deaths were obtained from the national hospital admissions database and death register. The age-adjusted incidence rate ratio (IRR for CVD and mortality in T1DM (n = 21,789 versus the non-diabetic population (3.96 million was estimated using Poisson regression. The age-adjusted IRR for first CVD event associated with T1DM versus the non-diabetic population was higher in women (3.0: 95% CI 2.4-3.8, p<0.001 than men (2.3: 2.0-2.7, p<0.001 while the IRR for all-cause mortality associated with T1DM was comparable at 2.6 (2.2-3.0, p<0.001 in men and 2.7 (2.2-3.4, p<0.001 in women. Between 2005-2007, among individuals with T1DM, 34 of 123 deaths among 10,173 who were <40 years and 37 of 907 deaths among 12,739 who were ≥40 years had an underlying cause of death of coma or diabetic ketoacidosis. Among individuals 60-69 years, approximately three extra deaths per 100 per year occurred among men with T1DM (28.51/1,000 person years at risk, and two per 100 per year for women (17.99/1,000 person years at risk. 28% of those with T1DM were current smokers, 13% achieved target HbA(1c of <7% and 37% had very poor (≥9% glycaemic control. Among those aged ≥40, 37% had blood pressures above even conservative targets (≥140/90 mmHg and 39% of those ≥40 years were not on a statin. Although many of these risk factors were comparable to those

  5. One idea of portfolio risk control for absolute return strategy risk adjustments by signals from correlation behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nishiyama, N.

    2001-12-01

    Absolute return strategy provided from fund of funds (FOFs) investment schemes is the focus in Japanese Financial Community. FOFs investment mainly consists of hedge fund investment and it has two major characteristics which are low correlation against benchmark index and little impact from various external changes in the environment given maximizing return. According to the historical track record of survival hedge funds in this business world, they maintain a stable high return and low risk. However, one must keep in mind that low risk would not be equal to risk free. The failure of Long-term capital management (LTCM) that took place in the summer of 1998 was a symbolized phenomenon. The summer of 1998 exhibited a certain limitation of traditional value at risk (VaR) and some possibility that traditional VaR could be ineffectual to the nonlinear type of fluctuation in the market. In this paper, I try to bring self-organized criticality (SOC) into portfolio risk control. SOC would be well known as a model of decay in the natural world. I analyzed nonlinear type of fluctuation in the market as SOC and applied SOC to capture complicated market movement using threshold point of SOC and risk adjustments by scenario correlation as implicit signals. Threshold becomes the control parameter of risk exposure to set downside floor and forecast extreme nonlinear type of fluctuation under a certain probability. Simulation results would show synergy effect of portfolio risk control between SOC and absolute return strategy.

  6. Variation In Accountable Care Organization Spending And Sensitivity To Risk Adjustment: Implications For Benchmarking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rose, Sherri; Zaslavsky, Alan M; McWilliams, J Michael

    2016-03-01

    Spending targets (or benchmarks) for accountable care organizations (ACOs) participating in the Medicare Shared Savings Program must be set carefully to encourage program participation while achieving fiscal goals and minimizing unintended consequences, such as penalizing ACOs for serving sicker patients. Recently proposed regulatory changes include measures to make benchmarks more similar for ACOs in the same area with different historical spending levels. We found that ACOs vary widely in how their spending levels compare with those of other local providers after standard case-mix adjustments. Additionally adjusting for survey measures of patient health meaningfully reduced the variation in differences between ACO spending and local average fee-for-service spending, but substantial variation remained, which suggests that differences in care efficiency between ACOs and local non-ACO providers vary widely. Accordingly, measures to equilibrate benchmarks between high- and low-spending ACOs--such as setting benchmarks to risk-adjusted average fee-for-service spending in an area--should be implemented gradually to maintain participation by ACOs with high spending. Use of survey information also could help mitigate perverse incentives for risk selection and upcoding and limit unintended consequences of new benchmarking methodologies for ACOs serving sicker patients. Project HOPE—The People-to-People Health Foundation, Inc.

  7. Geographic variation of gallbladder cancer mortality and risk factors in Chile: a population-based ecologic study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andia, Marcelo E.; Hsing, Ann W.; Andreotti, Gabriella; Ferreccio, Catterina

    2010-01-01

    Chile’s gallbladder cancer rates are among the highest in the world, being the first cancer killer among Chilean women. To provide insights into the etiology of gallbladder cancer, we conducted an ecologic study examining the geographical variation of gallbladder cancer and several putative risk factors. The relative risk of dying from gallbladder cancer (relative to the national average mortality rate) between 1985 and 2003 was estimated for each of the 333 Chilean counties, using a hierarchical Poisson regression model, adjusting for age, sex, and geographical location. The risk of gallbladder cancer mortality was analyzed in relation to region (costal, inland, northern, and southern), poverty, Amerindian (Mapuche) population, typhoid fever, and access to cholecystectomy, using logistic regression analysis. There were 27,183 gallbladder cancer deaths, age-sex-adjusted county mortality rates ranging from 8.2 to 12.4 per 100,000 inhabitants, being higher in inland and southern regions; compare to the north-coastal, the northern-inland region had a 10-fold risk odds ratio (OR) (95% of confidence interval (95% CI): 2.4–42.2) and the southern-inland region had a 26-fold risk (OR 95%CI: 6.0–114.2). Independent risk factors for gallbladder cancer were: ethnicity (Mapuche) OR:3.9 (95%CI 1.8–8.7), typhoid fever OR:2.9 (95%CI 1.2–6.9), poverty OR:5.1 (95%CI 1.6–15.9), low access to cholecystectomy OR:3.9 (95%CI 1.5–10.1), low access to hospital care OR:14.2 (95%CI 4.2–48.7) and high urbanization OR:8.0 (95%CI 3.4–18.7). Our results suggest that gallbladder cancer in Chile may be related to both genetic factors and poor living conditions. Future analytic studies are needed to further clarify the role of these factors in gallbladder cancer etiology. PMID:18566990

  8. A prospective study of frequency of eating restaurant prepared meals and subsequent 9-year risk of all-cause and cardiometabolic mortality in US adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kant, Ashima K; Graubard, Barry I

    2018-01-01

    Restaurant prepared foods are known to be energy-dense and high in fat and sodium, but lower in protective nutrients. There is evidence of higher risk of adiposity, type II diabetes, and heart disease in frequent consumers of restaurant meals. However, the risk of mortality as a long-term health consequence of frequent consumption of restaurant meals has not been examined. We examined the prospective risk of all-cause and coronary heart disease, cerebrovascular disease and diabetes (cardiometabolic) mortality in relation to frequency of eating restaurant prepared meals in a national cohort. We used frequency of eating restaurant prepared meals information collected in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys, conducted from 1999-2004, with mortality follow-up completed through Dec. 31, 2011 (baseline age ≥ 40y; n = 9107). We estimated the relative hazard of all-cause and cardiometabolic mortality associated with weekly frequency of eating restaurant meals using Cox-proportional hazards regression methods to adjust for multiple covariates. All analyses accounted for complex survey design and included sample weights. Over 33% of all respondents reported eating ≥3 restaurant prepared meals/week. In this cohort, 2200 deaths due to all causes and 665 cardiometabolic deaths occurred over a median follow-up of 9 years. The covariate-adjusted hazard ratio of all cause or cardiometabolic mortality in men and women reporters of restaurant prepared meals did not differ from those reporting ≥3 meals/week (P>0.05). The results were robust to effect modification by baseline BMI, years of education, and baseline morbidity. Expectedly, the 24-h dietary intakes of whole grains, fruits, dietary fiber, folate, vitamin C, potassium and magnesium at baseline were lower, but energy, energy density, and energy from fat were higher in more frequent restaurant meal reporters (Prestaurant prepared meals (Prestaurant prepared meals and prospective risk of mortality after 9

  9. A prospective study of frequency of eating restaurant prepared meals and subsequent 9-year risk of all-cause and cardiometabolic mortality in US adults

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graubard, Barry I.

    2018-01-01

    Restaurant prepared foods are known to be energy-dense and high in fat and sodium, but lower in protective nutrients. There is evidence of higher risk of adiposity, type II diabetes, and heart disease in frequent consumers of restaurant meals. However, the risk of mortality as a long-term health consequence of frequent consumption of restaurant meals has not been examined. We examined the prospective risk of all-cause and coronary heart disease, cerebrovascular disease and diabetes (cardiometabolic) mortality in relation to frequency of eating restaurant prepared meals in a national cohort. We used frequency of eating restaurant prepared meals information collected in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys, conducted from 1999–2004, with mortality follow-up completed through Dec. 31, 2011 (baseline age ≥ 40y; n = 9107). We estimated the relative hazard of all-cause and cardiometabolic mortality associated with weekly frequency of eating restaurant meals using Cox-proportional hazards regression methods to adjust for multiple covariates. All analyses accounted for complex survey design and included sample weights. Over 33% of all respondents reported eating ≥3 restaurant prepared meals/week. In this cohort, 2200 deaths due to all causes and 665 cardiometabolic deaths occurred over a median follow-up of 9 years. The covariate-adjusted hazard ratio of all cause or cardiometabolic mortality in men and women reporters of meals did not differ from those reporting ≥3 meals/week (P>0.05). The results were robust to effect modification by baseline BMI, years of education, and baseline morbidity. Expectedly, the 24-h dietary intakes of whole grains, fruits, dietary fiber, folate, vitamin C, potassium and magnesium at baseline were lower, but energy, energy density, and energy from fat were higher in more frequent restaurant meal reporters (Peating restaurant prepared meals (Peating restaurant prepared meals and prospective risk of mortality after 9

  10. 14-Year risk of all-cause mortality according to hypoglycaemic drug exposure in a general population.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emilie Bérard

    Full Text Available PURPOSE: Guidelines for management of patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus recommend the use of hypoglycaemic drugs when lifestyle interventions remain insufficient for glycaemic control. Recent trials have provided worrying safety data on certain hypoglycaemic drugs. The aim of this study was to assess 14-year risk of all-cause mortality according to hypoglycaemic drug exposure at baseline, in a general population. METHODS: Our analysis was based on the observational Third French MONICA survey on cardiovascular risk factors (1995-1997. Vital status was obtained 14 years after inclusion, and assessment of determinants of mortality was based on multivariable Cox modelling. RESULTS: There were 3336 participants and 248 deaths over the 14-year period. At baseline, there were 3162 (95% non-diabetic, 46 (1% untreated type 2 diabetic and 128 (4% type 2 diabetic subjects with hypoglycaemic drug treatment (metformin alone (31%, sulfonylureas alone or in combination (49%, insulin alone or in combination (10%, or other treatments (9%. After adjustment for duration of diabetes, history of diabetes complications, area of residence (centre, age, gender, educational level, alcohol consumption, smoking, blood pressure, LDL and HDL cholesterol, which all were significant and independent determinants of mortality, the hazard ratio for all-cause mortality was 3.22 [95% confidence interval: 0.87-11.9] for untreated diabetic subjects, 2.28 [0.98-5.26] for diabetics treated with metformin alone, 1.70 [0.92-3.16] for diabetics with sulfonylureas and 4.92 [1.70-14.3] for diabetic with insulin versus non-diabetic subjects. CONCLUSIONS: Our results support the conclusion that until more evidence is provided from randomized trials, a prudent approach should be to restrain use of insulin to situations in which combinations of non-insulin agents have failed to appropriately achieve glycemic control, as it is recommended in the current guidelines for the management of

  11. Risk factors of maternal mortality in Sistan region: 10-year report

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Sarani

    2014-12-01

    Conclusion: Based on our findings, some factors including multiparity, pregnancy his-tory more than 4 times, short interval between pregnancies lower than 2 years and ma-ternal age more than 35 years were some risk factors for maternal death. Maternal mortality in the postpartum period was more than pre-delivery period. Bleeding was the main cause of maternal mortality. Therefore monitoring of vital signs in the post-partum period and the proper management of bleeding are very important. It is sug-gested that risk assessment should be done for pregnant women in delivery ward for detecting high risk pregnant women. Suitable management for these women especially for patients with postpartum hemorrhage plays an important role to decrease the ma-ternal mortality.

  12. Adjusting external doses from the ORNL and Y-12 facilities for the Oak Ridge Nuclear Facilities mortality study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Watkins, J.P.; Cragle, D.L.; West, C.M.; Tankersley, W.G.; Frome, E.L.; Crawford-Brown, D.J.

    1995-01-01

    This report presents specific procedures used for adjusting radiation doses to radiation personnel at the ORNL and Y-12 plants during the early years. Topics discussed include: background information; selection of employment years to be considered; hardcopy monitoring methods and records; pocket meter data; and replacement of 1943 unmonitored employment years. These topics were discussed for both years

  13. Income inequality, individual income, and mortality in Danish adults

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Osler, Merete; Prescott, Eva; Grønbaek, Morten

    2002-01-01

    To analyse the association between area income inequality and mortality after adjustment for individual income and other established risk factors.......To analyse the association between area income inequality and mortality after adjustment for individual income and other established risk factors....

  14. Mortality indicators and risk factors for intra-abdominal hypertension in severe acute pancreatitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, J G; Liao, Q; Zhao, Y P; Hu, Y

    2014-01-01

    This study assessed the risk factors associated with mortality and the development of intra-abdominal hypertension (IAH) in patients with severe acute pancreatitis (SAP). To identify significant risk factors, we assessed the following variables in 102 patients with SAP: age, gender, etiology, serum amylase level, white blood cell (WBC) count, serum calcium level, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE-II) score, computed tomography severity index (CTSI) score, pancreatic necrosis, surgical interventions, and multiple organ dysfunction syndrome (MODS). Statistically significant differences were identified using the Student t test and the χ (2) test. Independent risk factors for survival were analyzed by Cox proportional hazards regression. The following variables were significantly related to both mortality and IAH: WBC count, serum calcium level, serum amylase level, APACHE-II score, CTSI score, pancreatic necrosis, pancreatic necrosis >50%, and MODS. However, it was found that surgical intervention had no significant association with mortality. MODS and pancreatic necrosis >50% were found to be independent risk factors for survival in patients with SAP. Mortality and IAH from SAP were significantly related to WBC count, serum calcium level, serum amylase level, APACHE-II score, CTSI score, pancreatic necrosis, and MODS. However, Surgical intervention did not result in higher mortality. Moreover, MODS and pancreatic necrosis >50% predicted a worse prognosis in SAP patients.

  15. Development and validation of a mortality risk model for pediatric sepsis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Mengshi; Lu, Xiulan; Hu, Li; Liu, Pingping; Zhao, Wenjiao; Yan, Haipeng; Tang, Liang; Zhu, Yimin; Xiao, Zhenghui; Chen, Lizhang; Tan, Hongzhuan

    2017-01-01

    Abstract Pediatric sepsis is a burdensome public health problem. Assessing the mortality risk of pediatric sepsis patients, offering effective treatment guidance, and improving prognosis to reduce mortality rates, are crucial. We extracted data derived from electronic medical records of pediatric sepsis patients that were collected during the first 24 hours after admission to the pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) of the Hunan Children's hospital from January 2012 to June 2014. A total of 788 children were randomly divided into a training (592, 75%) and validation group (196, 25%). The risk factors for mortality among these patients were identified by conducting multivariate logistic regression in the training group. Based on the established logistic regression equation, the logit probabilities for all patients (in both groups) were calculated to verify the model's internal and external validities. According to the training group, 6 variables (brain natriuretic peptide, albumin, total bilirubin, D-dimer, lactate levels, and mechanical ventilation in 24 hours) were included in the final logistic regression model. The areas under the curves of the model were 0.854 (0.826, 0.881) and 0.844 (0.816, 0.873) in the training and validation groups, respectively. The Mortality Risk Model for Pediatric Sepsis we established in this study showed acceptable accuracy to predict the mortality risk in pediatric sepsis patients. PMID:28514310

  16. Double jeopardy: interaction effects of marital and poverty status on the risk of mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, K R; Waitzman, N J

    1994-08-01

    The purpose of this paper is to examine the hypothesis that marital and poverty status interact in their effects on mortality risks beyond their main effects. This study examines the epidemiological bases for applying an additive rather than a multiplicative specification when testing for interaction between two discrete risk factors. We specifically predict that risks associated with being nonmarried and with being poor interact to produce mortality risks that are greater than each risk acting independently. The analysis is based on men and women who were ages 25-74 during the 1971-1975 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey I (NHANES I) and who were traced successfully in the NHANES I Epidemiologic Follow-Up Study in 1982-1984. Overall, being both poor and nonmarried places nonelderly (ages 25-64) men, but not women, at risk of mortality greater than that expected from the main effects. This study shows that for all-cause mortality, marital and poverty status interact for men but less so for women; these findings exist when interaction is assessed with either a multiplicative or an additive standard. This difference is most pronounced for poor, widowed men and (to a lesser degree) poor, divorced men. For violent/accidental deaths among men, the interaction effects are large on the basis of an additive model. Weak main and interaction effects were detected for the elderly (age 65+).

  17. Costs of Reproduction in Breeding Female Mallards: Predation Risk during Incubation Drives Annual Mortality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Todd W. Arnold

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The effort expended on reproduction may entail future costs, such as reduced survival or fecundity, and these costs can have an important influence on life-history optimization. For birds with precocial offspring, hypothesized costs of reproduction have typically emphasized nutritional and energetic investments in egg formation and incubation. We measured seasonal survival of 3856 radio-marked female Mallards (Anas platyrhynchos from arrival on the breeding grounds through brood-rearing or cessation of breeding. There was a 2.5-fold direct increase in mortality risk associated with incubating nests in terrestrial habitats, whereas during brood-rearing when breeding females occupy aquatic habitats, mortality risk reached seasonal lows. Mortality risk also varied with calendar date and was highest during periods when large numbers of Mallards were nesting, suggesting that prey-switching behaviors by common predators may exacerbate risks to adults in all breeding stages. Although prior investments in egg laying and incubation affected mortality risk, most relationships were not consistent with the cost of reproduction hypothesis; birds with extensive prior investments in egg production or incubation typically survived better, suggesting that variation in individual quality drove both relationships. We conclude that for breeding female Mallards, the primary cost of reproduction is a fixed cost associated with placing oneself at risk to predators while incubating nests in terrestrial habitats.

  18. Mortality in perforated peptic ulcer patients after selective management of stratified poor risk cases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahman, M Mizanur; Islam, M Saiful; Flora, Sabrina; Akhter, S Fariduddin; Hossain, Shahid; Karim, Fazlul

    2007-12-01

    Perforated peptic ulcer disease continues to inflict high morbidity and mortality. Although patients can be stratified according to their surgical risk, optimal management has yet to be described. In this study we demonstrate a treatment option that improves the mortality among critically ill, poor risk patients with perforated peptic ulcer disease. In our study, two series were retrospectively reviewed: group A patients (n = 522) were treated in a single surgical unit at the Dhaka Medical College Hospital, Dhaka, Bangladesh during the 1980s. Among them, 124 patients were stratified as poor risk based on age, delayed presentation, peritoneal contamination, and coexisting medical problems. These criteria were the basis for selecting a group of poor risk patients (n = 84) for minimal surgical intervention (percutaneous peritoneal drainage) out of a larger group of patients, group B (n = 785) treated at Khulna Medical College Hospital during the 1990s. In group A, 479 patients underwent conventional operative management with an operative mortality of 8.97%. Among the 43 deaths, 24 patients were >60 years of age (55.8%), 12 patients had delayed presentation (27.9%), and 7 patients were in shock or had multiple coexisting medical problems (16.2%). In group B, 626 underwent conventional operative management, with 26 deaths at a mortality rate of 4.15%. Altogether, 84 patients were stratified as poor risk and were managed with minimal surgical intervention (percutaneous peritoneal drainage) followed by conservative treatment. Three of these patients died with an operative mortality of 3.5%. Minimal surgical intervention (percutaneous peritoneal drainage) can significantly lower the mortality rate among a selected group of critically ill, poor risk patients with perforated peptic ulcer disease.

  19. Risk Factors for Morbidity and Mortality Following Gastroenterostomy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Poulsen, M.; Trezza, M.; Atimash, G.H.

    2009-01-01

    logistic regression. The 30-day complication and death rates were higher after emergency operations (80% and 60%) than after elective operations (32% and 25%). A multivariate analysis disclosed that hypoalbuminemia (a parts per thousand currency sign32 g/l), comorbidity, high age, and hyponatremia (... with modifiable and non-modifiable risk factors. Prior to surgery means should be taken to correct low albumin and sodium levels to prevent complications. In addition, the surgeon should consider alternative treatment modalities including laparoscopic gastroenterostomy, self-expanding metallic stents, or tube...

  20. Aphid reproductive investment in response to mortality risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    Background Aphids are striking in their prodigious reproductive capacity and reliance on microbial endosymbionts, which provision their hosts with necessary amino acids and provide protection against parasites and heat stress. Perhaps as a result of this bacterial dependence, aphids have limited immune function that may leave them vulnerable to bacterial pathogens. An alternative, non-immunological response that may be available to infected aphids is to increase reproduction, thereby ameliorating fitness loss from infection. Such a response would reduce the need to mount a potentially energetically costly immune response, and would parallel that of other hosts that alter life-history traits when there is a risk of infection. Here we examined whether pea aphids (Acyrthosiphon pisum) respond to immunological challenges by increasing reproduction. As a comparison to the response to the internal cue of risk elicited by immunological challenge, we also exposed pea aphids to an external cue of risk - the aphid alarm pheromone (E)-β-farnesene (EBF), which is released in the presence of predators. For each challenge, we also examined whether the presence of symbionts modified the host response, as maintaining host fitness in the face of challenge would benefit both the host and its dependent bacteria. Results We found that aphids stabbed abdominally with a sterile needle had reduced fecundity relative to control aphids but that aphids stabbed with a needle bearing heat-killed bacteria had reproduction intermediate, and statistically indistinguishable, to the aphids stabbed with a sterile needle and the controls. Aphids with different species of facultative symbiotic bacteria had different reproductive patterns overall, but symbionts in general did not alter aphid reproduction in response to bacterial exposure. However, in response to exposure to alarm pheromone, aphids with Hamiltonella defensa or Serratia symbiotica symbiotic infections increased reproduction but those

  1. Cancer incidence and mortality risks in a large US Barrett's oesophagus cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, Michael B; Coburn, Sally B; Lam, Jameson R; Taylor, Philip R; Schneider, Jennifer L; Corley, Douglas A

    2018-03-01

    Barrett's oesophagus (BE) increases the risk of oesophageal adenocarcinoma by 10-55 times that of the general population, but no community-based cancer-specific incidence and cause-specific mortality risk estimates exist for large cohorts in the USA. Within Kaiser Permanente Northern California (KPNC), we identified patients with BE diagnosed during 1995-2012. KPNC cancer registry and mortality files were used to estimate standardised incidence ratios (SIR), standardised mortality ratios (SMR) and excess absolute risks. There were 8929 patients with BE providing 50 147 person-years of follow-up. Compared with the greater KPNC population, patients with BE had increased risks of any cancer (SIR=1.40, 95% CI 1.31 to 1.49), which slightly decreased after excluding oesophageal cancer. Oesophageal adenocarcinoma risk was increased 24 times, which translated into an excess absolute risk of 24 cases per 10 000 person-years. Although oesophageal adenocarcinoma risk decreased with time since BE diagnosis, oesophageal cancer mortality did not, indicating that the true risk is stable and persistent with time. Relative risks of cardia and stomach cancers were increased, but excess absolute risks were modest. Risks of colorectal, lung and prostate cancers were unaltered. All-cause mortality was slightly increased after excluding oesophageal cancer (SMR=1.24, 95% CI 1.18 to 1.31), but time-stratified analyses indicated that this was likely attributable to diagnostic bias. Cause-specific SMRs were elevated for ischaemic heart disease (SMR=1.39, 95% CI 1.18 to 1.63), respiratory system diseases (SMR=1.51, 95% CI 1.29 to 1.75) and digestive system diseases (SMR=2.20 95% CI 1.75 to 2.75). Patients with BE had a persistent excess risk of oesophageal adenocarcinoma over time, although their absolute excess risks for this cancer, any cancer and overall mortality were modest. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a

  2. Low mortality rates after endovascular aortic repair expand use to high-risk patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adkar, Shaunak S; Turner, Megan C; Leraas, Harold J; Gilmore, Brian F; Nag, Uttara; Turley, Ryan S; Shortell, Cynthia K; Mureebe, Leila

    2018-02-01

    The 2010 endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR) trial 2 (EVAR 2) reported that patients with comorbidity profiles rendering them unfit for open aneurysm repair who underwent EVAR did not experience a survival advantage compared with those who did not undergo intervention. These patients experienced a 30-day mortality of 7.3%, whereas reports from similar cohorts reported far lower mortality rates. The primary objective of our study was to compare the incidence of 30-day mortality in low- and high-risk patients undergoing EVAR in a contemporary data set, using patient risk stratification criteria from EVAR 2. Secondarily, we sought to identify risk factors associated with a disproportionate contribution to 30-day mortality risk. Data were obtained from the 2005 to 2013 American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS NSQIP) Participant Use Data Files (N = 24,813). Patients were included in the high-risk cohort with the presence of renal, respiratory, or cardiac preoperative criteria alone or in combination. Renal impairment criteria were defined as dialysis and creatinine concentration >2.26 mg/dL. Respiratory impairment criteria included history of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and preoperative ventilator support. Cardiac impairment criteria included history of myocardial infarction, congestive heart failure, angina, and prior coronary intervention. Patient and procedural characteristics and 30-day postoperative outcomes were compared using Pearson χ 2 tests for categorical variables and Wilcoxon rank sum tests for continuous variables. Among 24,813 patients undergoing EVAR, 12,043 (48%) patients were characterized as high risk (at least one impairment criterion); 12,770 (52%) patients were stratified as low risk. The 30-day mortality rate was 1.9% in the high-risk cohort compared with the 7.3% reported by EVAR 2, and it was higher in the high-risk cohort compared with the low-risk cohort (1.9% vs 0.9%; P < .001). Whereas the

  3. Regression Trees Identify Relevant Interactions: Can This Improve the Predictive Performance of Risk Adjustment?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buchner, Florian; Wasem, Jürgen; Schillo, Sonja

    2017-01-01

    Risk equalization formulas have been refined since their introduction about two decades ago. Because of the complexity and the abundance of possible interactions between the variables used, hardly any interactions are considered. A regression tree is used to systematically search for interactions, a methodologically new approach in risk equalization. Analyses are based on a data set of nearly 2.9 million individuals from a major German social health insurer. A two-step approach is applied: In the first step a regression tree is built on the basis of the learning data set. Terminal nodes characterized by more than one morbidity-group-split represent interaction effects of different morbidity groups. In the second step the 'traditional' weighted least squares regression equation is expanded by adding interaction terms for all interactions detected by the tree, and regression coefficients are recalculated. The resulting risk adjustment formula shows an improvement in the adjusted R 2 from 25.43% to 25.81% on the evaluation data set. Predictive ratios are calculated for subgroups affected by the interactions. The R 2 improvement detected is only marginal. According to the sample level performance measures used, not involving a considerable number of morbidity interactions forms no relevant loss in accuracy. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  4. Volunteering and mortality risk: a partner-controlled quasi-experimental design.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Reilly, Dermot; Rosato, Michael; Moriarty, John; Leavey, Gerard

    2017-08-01

    The consensus that volunteering is associated with a lower mortality risk is derived from a body of observational studies and therefore vulnerable to uncontrolled or residual confounding. This potential limitation is likely to be particularly problematic for volunteers who, by definition, are self-selected and known to be significantly different from non-volunteers across a range of factors associated with better survival. This is a census-based record-linkage study of 308 733 married couples aged 25 and over, including 100 571 volunteers, with mortality follow-up for 33 months. We used a standard Cox model to examine whether mortality risk in the partners of volunteers was influenced by partner volunteering status-something expected if the effects of volunteering on mortality risk were due to shared household or behavioural characteristics. Volunteers were general more affluent, better educated and more religious than their non-volunteering peers; they also had a lower mortality risk [hazard ratio (HR)adj = 0.78: 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.71, 0.85 for males and HRadj = 0.77: 95% CI = 0.68, 0.88 for females]. However, amongst cohort members who were not volunteers, having a partner who was a volunteer was not associated with a mortality advantage (HRadj = 1.01: 95% CI = 0.92, 1.11 for men and HRadj = 1.00: 95% CI = 0.88, 1.13 women). This study provides further evidence that the lower mortality associated with volunteering is unlikely to be due to health selection or to residual confounding arising from unmeasured selection effects within households. It therefore increases the plausibility of a direct causal effect. © The Author 2017; all rights reserved. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association

  5. [Estimation of the excess of lung cancer mortality risk associated to environmental tobacco smoke exposure of hospitality workers].

    Science.gov (United States)

    López, M José; Nebot, Manel; Juárez, Olga; Ariza, Carles; Salles, Joan; Serrahima, Eulàlia

    2006-01-14

    To estimate the excess lung cancer mortality risk associated with environmental tobacco (ETS) smoke exposure among hospitality workers. The estimation was done using objective measures in several hospitality settings in Barcelona. Vapour phase nicotine was measured in several hospitality settings. These measurements were used to estimate the excess lung cancer mortality risk associated with ETS exposure for a 40 year working life, using the formula developed by Repace and Lowrey. Excess lung cancer mortality risk associated with ETS exposure was higher than 145 deaths per 100,000 workers in all places studied, except for cafeterias in hospitals, where excess lung cancer mortality risk was 22 per 100,000. In discoteques, for comparison, excess lung cancer mortality risk is 1,733 deaths per 100,000 workers. Hospitality workers are exposed to ETS levels related to a very high excess lung cancer mortality risk. These data confirm that ETS control measures are needed to protect hospital workers.

  6. Deep sternal wound infection after coronary artery bypass surgery: management and risk factor analysis for mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yumun, Gunduz; Erdolu, Burak; Toktas, Faruk; Eris, Cuneyt; Ay, Derih; Turk, Tamer; As, Ahmet Kagan

    2014-08-01

    Deep sternal wound infection is a life-threatening complication after cardiac surgery. The aim of this study was to investigate the factors leading to mortality, and to explore wound management techniques on deep sternal wound infection after coronary artery bypass surgery. Between 2008 and 2013, 58 patients with deep sternal wound infection were analyzed. Risk factors for mortality and morbidity including age, gender, body mass index, smoking status, chronic renal failure, hypertension, diabetes, and treatment choice were investigated. In this study, 19 patients (32.7%) were treated by primary surgical closure (PSC), and 39 patients (67.3%) were treated by delayed surgical closure following a vacuum-assisted closure system (VAC). Preoperative patient characteristics were similar between the groups. Fourteen patients (24.1%) died in the postoperative first month. The mortality rate and mean duration of hospitalization in the PSC group was higher than in the VAC group (P = .026, P = .034). Significant risk factors for mortality were additional operation, diabetes mellitus, and a high level of EuroSCORE. Delayed surgical closure following VAC therapy may be associated with shorter hospitalization and lower mortality in patients with deep sternal wound infection. Additional operation, diabetes mellitus, and a high level of EuroSCORE were associated with mortality.

  7. Influence of Comorbidity on the Risk of Mortality in Men With Unfavorable-Risk Prostate Cancer Undergoing High-Dose Radiation Therapy Alone

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huynh, Mai Anh, E-mail: mahuynh@lroc.harvard.edu [Harvard Radiation Oncology Program, Brigham and Women' s Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); Chen, Ming-Hui; Wu, Jing [Department of Statistics, University of Connecticut, Storrs, Connecticut (United States); Braccioforte, Michelle H.; Moran, Brian J. [Prostate Cancer Foundation of Chicago, Westmont, Illinois (United States); D' Amico, Anthony V. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Brigham and Women' s Hospital–Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, Boston, Massachusetts (United States)

    2016-07-15

    Purpose: To explore whether a subgroup of men with unfavorable-risk prostate cancer (PC) exists in whom high-dose radiation therapy (RT) alone is sufficient to avoid excess PC death due to competing risk from cardiometabolic comorbidity. Methods and Materials: This was a cohort study of 7399 men in whom comorbidity (including congestive heart failure, diabetes mellitus, or myocardial infarction) was assessed and recorded with T1-3NxM0 PC treated with brachytherapy with or without neoadjuvant RT, October 1997 to May 2013 at a single providing institution. Cox and competing risks regression analyses were used to assess whether men with unfavorable–intermediate/high-risk versus favorable–intermediate/low-risk PC were at increased risk of PC-specific, all-cause, or other-cause mortality (PCSM, ACM, OCM), adjusting for number of comorbidities, age at and year of brachytherapy, RT use, and an RT treatment propensity score. Results: After a median follow-up of 7.7 years, 935 men died: 80 of PC and 855 of other causes. Among men with no comorbidity, PCSM risk (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR] 2.74 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.49-5.06], P=.001) and ACM risk (AHR 1.30 [95% CI 1.07-1.58], P=.007) were significantly increased in men with unfavorable–intermediate/high-risk PC versus favorable–intermediate/low-risk PC, with no difference in OCM (P=.07). Although PCSM risk was increased in men with 1 comorbidity (AHR 2.87 [95% CI 1.11-7.40], P=.029), ACM risk was not (AHR 1.03 [95% CI 0.78-1.36], P=.84). Neither PCSM risk (AHR 4.39 [95% CI 0.37-51.98], P=.24) or ACM risk (AHR 1.43 [95% CI 0.83-2.45], P=.20) was increased in men with 2 comorbidities. Conclusions: To minimize death from PC, high-dose RT alone may be sufficient treatment in men with 2 or more cardiometabolic comorbidities and unfavorable–intermediate- and high-risk PC.

  8. Spatial risk for gender-specific adult mortality in an area of southern China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ochiai Rion

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Although economic reforms have brought significant benefits, including improved health care to many Chinese people, accessibility to improved care has not been distributed evenly throughout Chinese society. Also, the effects of the uneven distribution of improved healthcare are not clearly understood. Evidence suggests that mortality is an indicator for evaluating accessibility to improved health care services. We constructed spatially smoothed risk maps for gender-specific adult mortality in an area of southern China comprising both urban and rural areas and identified ecological factors of gender-specific mortality across societies. Results The study analyzed the data of the Hechi Prefecture in southern in China. An average of 124,204 people lived in the area during the study period (2002–2004. Individual level data for 2002–2004 were grouped using identical rectangular cells (regular lattice of 0.25 km2. Poisson regression was fitted to the group level data to identify gender-specific ecological factors of adult (ages 15– Conclusion We found a disparity in mortality rates between rural and urban areas in the study area in southern China, especially for adult men. There were also differences in mortality rates between poorer and wealthy populations in both rural and urban areas, which may in part reflect differences in health care quality. Spatial influences upon adult male versus adult female mortality difference underscore the need for more research on gender-related influences on adult mortality in China.

  9. Mortality risk attributable to smoking, hypertension and diabetes among English and Brazilian older adults (The ELSA and Bambui cohort ageing studies)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marmot, Michael G.; Demakakos, Panayotes; Vaz de Melo Mambrini, Juliana; Peixoto, Sérgio Viana; Lima-Costa, Maria Fernanda

    2016-01-01

    Background: The main aim of this study was to quantify and compare 6-year mortality risk attributable to smoking, hypertension and diabetes among English and Brazilian older adults. This study represents a rare opportunity to approach the subject in two different social and economic contexts. Methods: Data from the data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) and the Bambuí Cohort Study of Ageing (Brazil) were used. Deaths in both cohorts were identified through mortality registers. Risk factors considered in this study were baseline smoking, hypertension and diabetes mellitus. Both age–sex adjusted hazard ratios and population attributable risks (PAR) of all-cause mortality and their 95% confidence intervals for the association between risk factors and mortality were estimated using Cox proportional hazards models. Results: Participants were 3205 English and 1382 Brazilians aged 60 years and over. First, Brazilians showed much higher absolute risk of mortality than English and this finding was consistent in all age, independently of sex. Second, as a rule, hazard ratios for mortality to smoking, hypertension and diabetes showed more similarities than differences between these two populations. Third, there was strong difference among English and Brazilians on attributable deaths to hypertension. Conclusions: The findings indicate that, despite of being in more recent transitions, the attributable deaths to one or more risk factors was twofold among Brazilians relative to the English. These findings call attention for the challenge imposed to health systems to prevent and treat non-communicable diseases, particularly in populations with low socioeconomic level. PMID:26666869

  10. Blood pressure and 10-year mortality risk in the Milan Geriatrics 75+ Cohort Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ogliari, Giulia; Westendorp, Rudi G J; Muller, Majon

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: optimal blood pressure targets in older adults are controversial. OBJECTIVE: to investigate whether the relation of blood pressure with mortality in older adults varies by age, functional and cognitive status. DESIGN: longitudinal geriatric outpatient cohort. SETTING: Milan Geriatrics...... 75+ Cohort Study. SUBJECTS: one thousand five hundred and eighty-seven outpatients aged 75 years and over. METHODS: the relations of systolic (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) with mortality risk were analysed using Cox proportional hazards models. Blood pressure, Mini-Mental State Examination......: the correlations of SBP and DBP with mortality were U-shaped. Higher SBP is related to lower mortality in subjects with impaired ADL and MMSE. ADL and MMSE may identify older subjects who benefit from higher blood pressure....

  11. Risk of acute renal failure and mortality after surgery for a fracture of the hip: a population-based cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pedersen, A B; Christiansen, C F; Gammelager, H; Kahlert, J; Sørensen, H T

    2016-08-01

    We examined risk of developing acute renal failure and the associated mortality among patients aged > 65 years undergoing surgery for a fracture of the hip. We used medical databases to identify patients who underwent surgical treatment for a fracture of the hip in Northern Denmark between 2005 and 2011. Acute renal failure was classified as stage 1, 2 and 3 according to the Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcome criteria. We computed the risk of developing acute renal failure within five days after surgery with death as a competing risk, and the short-term (six to 30 days post-operatively) and long-term mortality (31 days to 365 days post-operatively). We calculated adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for death with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Among 13 529 patients who sustained a fracture of the hip, 1717 (12.7%) developed acute renal failure post-operatively, including 1218 (9.0%) with stage 1, 364 (2.7%) with stage 2, and 135 (1.0%) with stage 3 renal failure. The short-term mortality was 15.9% and 5.6% for patients with and without acute renal failure, respectively (HR 2.8, 95% CI 2.4 to 3.2). The long-term mortality was 25.0% and 18.3% for those with and without acute renal failure, respectively (HR 1.3, 95% CI 1.2 to 1.5). The mortality was higher in patients with an increased severity of renal failure. Acute renal failure is a common complication of surgery in elderly patients who sustain a fracture of the hip, and is associated with increased mortality up to one year after surgery despite adjustment for coexisting comorbidity and medication before surgery. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2016;98-B:1112-18. ©2016 The British Editorial Society of Bone & Joint Surgery.

  12. Risk factors of all-cause in-hospital mortality among Korean elderly bacteremic urinary tract infection (UTI) patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chin, Bum Sik; Kim, Myung Soo; Han, Sang Hoon; Shin, So Youn; Choi, Hee Kyung; Chae, Yun Tae; Jin, Sung Joon; Baek, Ji-Hyeon; Choi, Jun Yong; Song, Young Goo; Kim, Chang Oh; Kim, June Myung

    2011-01-01

    Urinary tract infection (UTI) is the most frequent cause of bacteremia/sepsis in elderly people and increasing antimicrobial resistance in uropathogens has been observed. To describe the characteristics of bacteremic UTI in elderly patients and to identify the independent risk factors of all-cause in-hospital mortality, a retrospective cohort study of bacteremic UTI patients of age over 65 was performed at a single 2000-bed tertiary hospital. Bacteremic UTI was defined as the isolation of the same organism from both urine and blood within 48 h. Eighty-six elderly bacteremic UTI patients were enrolled. Community-acquired infection was the case for most patients (79.1%), and Escherichia coli accounted for 88.6% (70/79) among Gram-negative organisms. Non-E. coli Gram-negative organisms were more frequent in hospital-acquired cases and male patients while chronic urinary catheter insertion was related with Gram-positive urosepsis. The antibiotic susceptibility among Gram-negative organisms was not different depending on the source of bacteremic UTI, while non-E. coli Gram-negative organisms were less frequently susceptible for cefotaxime, cefoperazone/sulbactam, and aztreonam. All-cause in-hospital mortality was 11.6%, and functional dependency (adjusted hazard ratio=HR=10.9, 95% confidence interval=95%CI=2.2-54.6) and low serum albumin (adjusted HR=27.0, 95%CI=2.0-361.2) were independently related with increased all-cause in-hospital mortality. Crown Copyright © 2010. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Metabolic acidosis as a risk factor for the development of acute kidney injury and hospital mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Jiachang; Wang, Yimei; Geng, Xuemei; Chen, Rongyi; Xu, Xialian; Zhang, Xiaoyan; Lin, Jing; Teng, Jie; Ding, Xiaoqiang

    2017-05-01

    Metabolic acidosis has been proved to be a risk factor for the progression of chronic kidney disease, but its relation to acute kidney injury (AKI) has not been investigated. In general, a diagnosis of metabolic acidosis is based on arterial blood gas (ABG) analysis, but the diagnostic role of carbon dioxide combining power (CO 2 CP) in the venous blood may also be valuable to non-respiratory patients. This retrospective study included all adult non-respiratory patients admitted consecutively to our hospital between October 01, 2014 and September 30, 2015. A total of 71,089 non-respiratory patients were included, and only 4,873 patients were evaluated by ABG analysis at admission. In patients with ABG, acidosis, metabolic acidosis, decreased HCO 3 - and hypocapnia at admission was associated with the development of AKI, while acidosis and hypocapnia were independent predictors of hospital mortality. Among non-respiratory patients, decreased CO 2 CP at admission was an independent risk factor for AKI and hospital mortality. ROC curves indicated that CO 2 CP was a reasonable biomarker to exclude metabolic acidosis, dual and triple acid-base disturbances. The effect sizes of decreased CO 2 CP on AKI and hospital mortality varied according to age and different underlying diseases. Metabolic acidosis is an independent risk factor for the development of AKI and hospital mortality. In non-respiratory patient, decreased CO 2 CP is also an independent contributor to AKI and mortality and can be used as an indicator of metabolic acidosis.

  14. Loneliness and social isolation as risk factors for mortality: a meta-analytic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holt-Lunstad, Julianne; Smith, Timothy B; Baker, Mark; Harris, Tyler; Stephenson, David

    2015-03-01

    Actual and perceived social isolation are both associated with increased risk for early mortality. In this meta-analytic review, our objective is to establish the overall and relative magnitude of social isolation and loneliness and to examine possible moderators. We conducted a literature search of studies (January 1980 to February 2014) using MEDLINE, CINAHL, PsycINFO, Social Work Abstracts, and Google Scholar. The included studies provided quantitative data on mortality as affected by loneliness, social isolation, or living alone. Across studies in which several possible confounds were statistically controlled for, the weighted average effect sizes were as follows: social isolation odds ratio (OR) = 1.29, loneliness OR = 1.26, and living alone OR = 1.32, corresponding to an average of 29%, 26%, and 32% increased likelihood of mortality, respectively. We found no differences between measures of objective and subjective social isolation. Results remain consistent across gender, length of follow-up, and world region, but initial health status has an influence on the findings. Results also differ across participant age, with social deficits being more predictive of death in samples with an average age younger than 65 years. Overall, the influence of both objective and subjective social isolation on risk for mortality is comparable with well-established risk factors for mortality. © The Author(s) 2015.

  15. Depression Following Thrombotic Cardiovascular Events in Elderly Medicare Beneficiaries: Risk of Morbidity and Mortality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher M. Blanchette

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. Depression and antidepressant use may independently increase the risk of acute myocardial infarction and mortality in adults. However, no studies have looked at the effect of depression on a broader thrombotic event outcome, assessed antidepressant use, or evaluated elderly adults. Methods. A cohort of 7,051 community-dwelling elderly beneficiaries who experienced a thrombotic cardiovascular event (TCE were pooled from the 1997 to 2002 Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey and followed for 12 months. Baseline characteristics, antidepressant utilization, and death were ascertained from the survey, while indexed TCE, recurrent TCE, and depression (within 6 months of indexed TCE were taken from ICD-9 codes on Medicare claims. Time to death and first recurrent TCE were assessed using descriptive and multivariate statistics. Results. Of the elders with a depression claim, 71.6% had a recurrent TCE and 4.7% died within 12 months of their indexed TCE, compared to 67.6% and 3.9% of those elders without a depression claim. Of the antidepressant users, 72.6% experienced a recurrent TCE and 3.9% died, compared to 73.7% and 4.6% in the subset of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI users. Depression was associated with a shorter time to death (P=.008 in the unadjusted analysis. However, all adjusted comparisons revealed no effect by depression, antidepressant use, or SSRI use. Conclusions. Depression was not associated with time to death or recurrent TCEs in this study. Antidepressant use, including measures of any antidepressant use and SSRI use, was not associated with shorter time to death or recurrent TCE.

  16. Low supply of social support as risk factor for mortality in the older adults.

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    de Brito, Tábatta Renata Pereira; Nunes, Daniella Pires; Corona, Ligiana Pires; da Silva Alexandre, Tiago; de Oliveira Duarte, Yeda Aparecida

    2017-11-01

    To determine the relationship between social support and mortality in older adults, independent of other health conditions. This was a longitudinal study using the database of the 2006 SABE Study (Heath, Well-being and Aging), composed of 1413 individuals aged 60 years and over, living in São Paulo/Brazil. The present study used a questionnaire constructed for the SABE Study, which was reviewed by experts of Latin America and the Caribbean. The social network was evaluated using the variables: social support received; social support offered; number of members in the social network. The covariates included were age, gender, living arrangements, marital status, income, education, comorbidity, depressive symptoms, cognition and functional difficulties. Death as an outcome was evaluated after four years of follow-up. From a total of 1413 older adults at baseline, 268 died in a mean follow-up period of 3,9 years (SE=0,03). In the model adjusted offering social support and having networks composed of 9 or more members reduced the risk of death in the older adults. This study suggest that older adult who are offered support can benefit from mutual exchanges since reciprocity in relationships improves psychological well-being and is indicative of the quality of relationships. Thus, the older adults are part of a group of people whose role is not only to receive, but also to provide help to others, and the support offered seems to be as important as that received. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. Sleep Duration and the Risk of Mortality From Stroke in Japan: The Takayama Cohort Study

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    Toshiaki Kawachi

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Background: Few studies have assessed the associations between sleep duration and stroke subtypes. We examined whether sleep duration is associated with mortality from total stroke, ischemic stroke, and hemorrhagic stroke in a population-based cohort of Japanese men and women. Methods: Subjects included 12 875 men and 15 021 women aged 35 years or older in 1992, who were followed until 2008. The outcome variable was stroke death (ischemic stroke, hemorrhagic stroke, and total stroke. Results: During follow-up, 611 stroke deaths (354 from ischemic stroke, 217 from hemorrhagic stroke, and 40 from undetermined stroke were identified. Compared with 7 h of sleep, ≥9 h of sleep was significantly associated with an increased risk of total stroke and ischemic stroke mortality after controlling for covariates. Hazard ratios (HRs and 95% confidence intervals (CIs were 1.51 (95% CI, 1.16–1.97 and 1.65 (95% CI, 1.16–2.35 for total stroke mortality and ischemic stroke mortality, respectively. Short sleep duration (≤6 h of sleep was associated with a decreased risk of mortality from total stroke (HR 0.77; 95% CI, 0.59–1.01, although this association was of borderline significance (P = 0.06. The trends for total stroke and ischemic stroke mortality were also significant (P < 0.0001 and P = 0.0002, respectively. There was a significant risk reduction of hemorrhagic stroke mortality for ≤6 h of sleep as compared with 7 h of sleep (HR 0.64; 95% CI, 0.42–0.98; P for trend = 0.08. The risk reduction was pronounced for men (HR 0.31; 95% CI, 0.16–0.64. Conclusions: Data suggest that longer sleep duration is associated with increased mortality from total and ischemic stroke. Short sleep duration may be associated with a decreased risk of mortality from hemorrhagic stroke in men.

  18. Risk Factors for Long-Term Mortality and Amputation after Open and Endovascular Treatment of Acute Limb Ischemia.

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    Genovese, Elizabeth A; Chaer, Rabih A; Taha, Ashraf G; Marone, Luke K; Avgerinos, Efthymios; Makaroun, Michel S; Baril, Donald T

    2016-01-01

    Acute limb ischemia (ALI) is a highly morbid and fatal vascular emergency with little known about contemporary, long-term patient outcomes. The goal was to determine predictors of long-term mortality and amputation after open and endovascular treatment of ALI. A retrospective review of ALI patients at a single institution from 2005 to 2011 was performed to determine the impact of revascularization technique on 5-year mortality and amputation. For each main outcome 2 multivariable models were developed; the first adjusted for preoperative clinical presentation and procedure type, the second also adjusted for postoperative adverse events (AEs). A total of 445 limbs in 411 patients were treated for ALI. Interventions included surgical thrombectomy (48%), emergent bypass (18%), and endovascular revascularization (34%). Mean age was 68 ± 15 years, 54% were male, and 23% had cancer. Most patients presented with Rutherford classification IIa (54%) or IIb (39%). The etiology of ALI included embolism (27%), in situ thrombosis (28%), thrombosed bypass grafts (32%), and thrombosed stents (13%). Patients treated with open procedures had significantly more advanced ischemia and higher rates of postoperative respiratory failure, whereas patients undergoing endovascular interventions had higher rates of technical failure. Rates of postprocedural bleeding and cardiac events were similar between both treatments. Excluding Rutherford class III patients (n = 12), overall 5-year mortality was 54% (stratified by treatment, 65% for thrombectomy, 63% for bypass, and 36% for endovascular, P < 0.001); 5-year amputation was 28% (stratified by treatment, 18% for thrombectomy, 27% for bypass, and 17% for endovascular, P = 0.042). Adjusting for comorbidities, patient presentation, AEs, and treatment method, the risk of mortality increased with age (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.04, P < 0.001), female gender (HR = 1.50, P = 0.031), cancer (HR = 2.19, P < 0.001), fasciotomy (HR = 1.69, P = 0.204) in

  19. Hyponatremia improvement is associated with a reduced risk of mortality: evidence from a meta-analysis.

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    Giovanni Corona

    Full Text Available Hyponatremia is the most common electrolyte disorder and it is associated with increased morbidity and mortality. However, there is no clear demonstration that the improvement of serum sodium concentration ([Na(+] counteracts the increased risk of mortality associated with hyponatremia. Thus, we performed a meta-analysis that included the published studies that addressed the effect of hyponatremia improvement on mortality.A Medline, Embase and Cochrane search was performed to retrieve all English-language studies of human subjects published up to June 30th 2014, using the following words: "hyponatremia", "hyponatraemia", "mortality", "morbidity" and "sodium". Fifteen studies satisfied inclusion criteria encompassing a total of 13,816 patients. The identification of relevant abstracts, the selection of studies and the subsequent data extraction were performed independently by two of the authors, and conflicts resolved by a third investigator. Across all fifteen studies, any improvement of hyponatremia was associated with a reduced risk of overall mortality (OR=0.57[0.40-0.81]. The association was even stronger when only those studies (n=8 reporting a threshold for serum [Na(+] improvement to >130 mmol/L were considered (OR=0.51[0.31-0.86]. The reduced mortality rate persisted at follow-up (OR=0.55[0.36-0.84] at 12 months. Meta-regression analyses showed that the reduced mortality associated with hyponatremia improvement was more evident in older subjects and in those with lower serum [Na(+] at enrollment.This meta-analysis documents for the first time that improvement in serum [Na(+] in hyponatremic patients is associated with a reduction of overall mortality.

  20. Type A personality and mortality: Competitiveness but not speed is associated with increased risk.

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    Lohse, Tina; Rohrmann, Sabine; Richard, Aline; Bopp, Matthias; Faeh, David

    2017-07-01

    Type A behavior pattern (TABP) is a possible risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, existing evidence is conflicting, also because studies did not examine underlying traits separately. In this study, we investigated whether all-cause and CVD mortality were associated with the Bortner Scale, a measure of TABP, in particular with its subscales competitiveness and speed. Information on Bortner Scale and covariates of 9921 participants was collected at baseline in two cross-sectional studies that were linked with mortality information, yielding a follow-up of up to 37 years. We analyzed the Bortner Scale and its two subscales competitiveness and speed. Applying Cox regression models, we investigated the association with all-cause, CVD, and specific CVD type mortality. During follow-up, 3469 deaths were observed (1118 CVD deaths). The total Bortner Scale was not associated with mortality, only its subscales. In women, competitiveness was positively associated with all-cause mortality (highest category vs. the lowest, HR 1.25 [95% CI 1.08,1.44]), CVD mortality (1.39 [1.07,1.81]), and ischemic heart disease mortality (intermediate category vs. the lowest, 1.46 [1.02,2.10]). In men, CVD mortality was inversely associated with speed (highest category vs. the lowest, 0.74 [0.59,0.93]). The subscales of the Bortner Scale may be associated with CVD in an opposed manner and may therefore have to be analyzed separately. More studies are needed to further investigate this association, also considering differences by sex. Persons scoring high in the competitiveness subscale ought to be screened and counselled in order to reduce their CVD risk. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Stroke Mortality, Clinical Presentation and Day of Arrival: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC Study

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    Emily C. O'Brien

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Recent studies report that acute stroke patients who present to the hospital on weekends have higher rates of 28-day mortality than similar patients who arrive during the week. However, how this association is related to clinical presentation and stroke type has not been systematically investigated. Methods and Results. We examined the association between day of arrival and 28-day mortality in 929 validated stroke events in the ARIC cohort from 1987–2004. Weekend arrival was defined as any arrival time from midnight Friday until midnight Sunday. Mortality was defined as all-cause fatal events from the day of arrival through the 28th day of followup. The presence or absence of thirteen stroke signs and symptoms were obtained through medical record review for each event. Binomial logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals (OR; 95% CI for the association between weekend arrival and 28-day mortality for all stroke events and for stroke subtypes. The overall risk of 28-day mortality was 9.6% for weekday strokes and 10.1% for weekend strokes. In models controlling for patient demographics, clinical risk factors, and event year, weekend arrival was not associated with 28-day mortality (0.87; 0.51, 1.50. When stratified by stroke type, weekend arrival was not associated with increased odds of mortality for ischemic (1.17, 0.62, 2.23 or hemorrhagic (0.37; 0.11, 1.26 stroke patients. Conclusions. Presence or absence of thirteen signs and symptoms was similar for weekday patients and weekend patients when stratified by stroke type. Weekend arrival was not associated with 28-day all-cause mortality or differences in symptom presentation for strokes in this cohort.

  2. Risk factors for on-farm mortality in beef suckler cows under extensive keeping management.

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