WorldWideScience

Sample records for risk adapted damage

  1. Adapting ecological risk valuation for natural resource damage assessment in water pollution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Shuzhen; Wu, Desheng

    2018-07-01

    Ecological risk assessment can address requirements of natural resource damage assessment by quantifying the magnitude of possible damages to the ecosystem. This paper investigates an approach to assess water damages from pollution incident on the basis of concentrations of contaminants. The baseline of water pollution is determined with not-to-exceed concentration of contaminants required by water quality standards. The values of damage cost to water quality are estimated through sewage treatment cost. To get a reliable estimate of treatment cost, DEA is employed to classify samples of sewage plants based on their efficiency of sewage treatment. And exponential fitting is adopted to determine the relation between treatment cost and the decrease of COCs. The range of damage costs is determined through the fitting curves respectively based on efficient and inefficient samples. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Adaptive measurement selection for progressive damage estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Wenfan; Kovvali, Narayan; Papandreou-Suppappola, Antonia; Chattopadhyay, Aditi; Peralta, Pedro

    2011-04-01

    Noise and interference in sensor measurements degrade the quality of data and have a negative impact on the performance of structural damage diagnosis systems. In this paper, a novel adaptive measurement screening approach is presented to automatically select the most informative measurements and use them intelligently for structural damage estimation. The method is implemented efficiently in a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) setting using particle filtering. The noise suppression and improved damage estimation capability of the proposed method is demonstrated by an application to the problem of estimating progressive fatigue damage in an aluminum compact-tension (CT) sample using noisy PZT sensor measurements.

  3. Radioadaptive response. Efficient repair of radiation-induced DNA damage in adapted cells

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ikushima, Takaji; Aritomi, Hisako; Morisita, Jun

    1996-01-01

    To verify the hypothesis that the induction of a novel, efficient repair mechanism for chromosomal DNA breaks may be involved in the radioadaptive response, the repair kinetics of DNA damage has been studied in cultured Chinese hamster V79 cells with single-cell gel electrophoresis. The cells were adapted by priming exposure with 5 cGy of γ-rays and 4-h incubation at 37C. There were no indication of any difference in the initial yields of DNA double-strand breaks induced by challenging doses from non-adapted cells and from adapted cells. The rejoining of DNA double-strand breaks was monitored over 120 min after the adapted cells were challenged with 5 or 1.5 Gy, doses at the same level to those used in the cytogenetical adaptive response. The rate of DNA damage repair in adapted cells was higher than that in non-adapted cells, and the residual damage was less in adapted cells than in non-adapted cells. These results indicate that the radioadaptive response may result from the induction of a novel, efficient DNA repair mechanism which leads to less residual damage, but not from the induction of protective functions that reduce the initial DNA damage

  4. Sandwich Structure Risk Reduction in Support of the Payload Adapter Fitting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nettles, A. T.; Jackson, J. R.; Guin, W. E.

    2018-01-01

    Reducing risk for utilizing honeycomb sandwich structure for the Space Launch System payload adapter fitting includes determining what parameters need to be tested for damage tolerance to ensure a safe structure. Specimen size and boundary conditions are the most practical parameters to use in damage tolerance inspection. The effect of impact over core splices and foreign object debris between the facesheet and core is assessed. Effects of enhanced damage tolerance by applying an outer layer of carbon fiber woven cloth is examined. A simple repair technique for barely visible impact damage that restores all compression strength is presented.

  5. Core damage risk indicators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Szikszai, T.

    1994-01-01

    The purpose of this document is to show a method for the fast recalculation of the PSA. To avoid the information loose, it is necessary to simplify the PSA models, or at least reorganize them. The method, introduced in this document, require that preparation, so we try to show, how to do that. This document is an introduction. This is the starting point of the work related to the development of the risk indicators. In the future, with the application of this method, we are going to show an everyday use of the PSA results to produce the indicators of the core damage risk. There are two different indicators of the plant safety performance, related to the core damage risk. The first is the core damage frequency indicator (CDFI), and the second is the core damage probability indicator (CDPI). Of course, we cannot describe all of the possible ways to use these indicators, rather we will try to introduce the requirements to establish such an indicator system and the calculation process

  6. Decision-making system for registration and prioritisation of potentially polluted sites adaptable for management of war damage risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lanczos, T.; Pedersen, K. E.

    2002-01-01

    We would like to present a decision-support system developed for identification and storing data concerning with potentially polluted sites and their prioritising. This system could also be adapted for reviewing and evaluation of the war damages. The operation of the system comprises of three procedures: data collection, data handling and the prioritisation of the sites. The relevant data could be collected from different sources, represented mainly by administrative institutions, by sending questionnaires to site owners/operators and by site visits. The collected data should be handled by appropriate database. For this purpose the Contaminated Land Module of the GeoEnviron database application was developed. This application is also designed for providing the preliminary risk assessment scores, which results are used for the site prioritisation. As an example implementation of this system, we shortly present our experiences from testing the system in Slovakia

  7. Risk of nuclear damage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kienzl, K.

    1997-01-01

    Following the opening and words of welcome by Mr. Fritz Unterpertinger (unit director at the Austrian Federal Ministry for the Environment, Youth and Family; BMUJF) Mrs Helga Kromp-Kolb (professor at the Institute for Meteorology and Physics of the University of Natural Resources Science Vienna) illustrated the risks of nuclear damage in Europe by means of a nuclear risk map. She explained that even from a scientific or technical point of view the assessment of risks arising from nuclear power stations was fraught with great uncertainties. Estimates about in how far MCAs (maximum credible accident) could still be controlled by safety systems vary widely and so do assessments of the probability of a core melt. But there is wide agreement in all risk assessments conducted so far that MCAs might occur within a - from a human point of view - conceivable number of years. In this connection one has to bear in mind that the occurrence of such a major accident - whatever its probability may be - could entail immense damage and the question arises whether or not it is at all justifiable to expose the general public to such a risk. Klaus Rennings (Centre for European Economic Research, Mannheim, Germany) dealt with the economic aspects of nuclear risk assessment. He explained that there are already a number of studies available aiming to assess the risk of damage resulting from a core melt accident in economic terms. As to the probability of occurrence estimates vary widely between one incident in 3,333 and 250,000 year of reactor operation. It is assumed, however, that a nuclear accident involving a core melt in Germany would probably exceed the damage caused by the Chernobyl accident. The following speakers addressed the legal aspects of risks associated with nuclear installations. Mrs Monika Gimpel-Hinteregger (professor at the Institute for Civil Law in Graz) gave an overview on the applicable Austrian law concerning third party liability in the field of nuclear energy

  8. Integrated Damage-Adaptive Control System (IDACS), Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — SSCI, in collaboration with Boeing Phantom Works, proposes to develop and test an efficient Integrated Damage Adaptive Control System (IDACS). The proposed system is...

  9. Integrated analysis considered mitigation cost, damage cost and adaptation cost in Northeast Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, J. H.; Lee, D. K.; Kim, H. G.; Sung, S.; Jung, T. Y.

    2015-12-01

    Various studies show that raising the temperature as well as storms, cold snap, raining and drought caused by climate change. And variety disasters have had a damage to mankind. The world risk report(2012, The Nature Conservancy) and UNU-EHS (the United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security) reported that more and more people are exposed to abnormal weather such as floods, drought, earthquakes, typhoons and hurricanes over the world. In particular, the case of Korea, we influenced by various pollutants which are occurred in Northeast Asian countries, China and Japan, due to geographical meteorological characteristics. These contaminants have had a significant impact on air quality with the pollutants generated in Korea. Recently, around the world continued their effort to reduce greenhouse gas and to improve air quality in conjunction with the national or regional development goals priority. China is also working on various efforts in accordance with the international flows to cope with climate change and air pollution. In the future, effect of climate change and air quality in Korea and Northeast Asia will be change greatly according to China's growth and mitigation policies. The purpose of this study is to minimize the damage caused by climate change on the Korean peninsula through an integrated approach taking into account the mitigation and adaptation plan. This study will suggest a climate change strategy at the national level by means of a comprehensive economic analysis of the impacts and mitigation of climate change. In order to quantify the impact and damage cost caused by climate change scenarios in a regional scale, it should be priority variables selected in accordance with impact assessment of climate change. The sectoral impact assessment was carried out on the basis of selected variables and through this, to derive the methodology how to estimate damage cost and adaptation cost. And then, the methodology was applied in Korea

  10. Framing adaptation: three aspects for climate change risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, Roger

    2007-01-01

    Full text: Substantial resources are being allocated to adaptation research and implementation. To use these resources wisely, framing the context within which adaptation decisions are made is critical. Three aspects are: Methods for assessing how much climate change to adapt to by when; Understanding the dynamic between different conceptual models for framing adaptation based on: a. Damages increasing proportionally with change, or b. Ricardian models that require adjustments to attain the 'new normal'; Adopting staged management strategies that depend on system status, which may range from business-as-usual to critical. General adaptation requirements and planning horizons need to have already been identified in scoping studies. Planning horizons include both operational and aspirational targets. Incremental adaptation can be informed by an aspirational goal far off into the future, but is undertaken through a shorter term operational approach. The need to anticipate long-term outcomes in advance is most relevant to measures that require large initial planning and investment, those with long lifetimes, or those where potential damages are irreversible and unacceptable. Five major sources of climate change uncertainty are relevant to assessing how much climate change to adapt to by when: ongoing climate variability and rate of change; past and future commitments to climate change; regional climate change projections; climate sensitivity; greenhouse gas emission scenarios and radiative forcing. These factors combine with different levels of importance depending on the relevant planning horizon. Short-term adaptation is most sensitive to the first and second factors, and long-term adaptation to the last three factors. These factors can be assessed within a probabilistic framework. Two conceptual models dominate assessments designed to inform adaptation. The IPCC Third and Fourth Assessment Reports clearly show that a great many risks increase proportionally with

  11. Alleviating inequality in climate policy costs: an integrated perspective on mitigation, damage and adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Cian, E.; Hof, A. F.; Marangoni, G.; Tavoni, M.; van Vuuren, D. P.

    2016-07-01

    Equity considerations play an important role in international climate negotiations. While policy analysis has often focused on equity as it relates to mitigation costs, there are large regional differences in adaptation costs and the level of residual damage. This paper illustrates the relevance of including adaptation and residual damage in equity considerations by determining how the allocation of emission allowances would change to counteract regional differences in total climate costs, defined as the costs of mitigation, adaptation, and residual damage. We compare emission levels resulting from a global carbon tax with two allocations of emission allowances under a global cap-and-trade system: one equating mitigation costs and one equating total climate costs as share of GDP. To account for uncertainties in both mitigation and adaptation, we use a model-comparison approach employing two alternative modeling frameworks with different damage, adaptation cost, and mitigation cost estimates, and look at two different climate goals. Despite the identified model uncertainties, we derive unambiguous results on the change in emission allowance allocation that could lessen the unequal distribution of adaptation costs and residual damages through the financial transfers associated with emission trading.

  12. Subclinical organ damage and cardiovascular risk prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sehestedt, Thomas; Olsen, Michael H

    2010-01-01

    Traditional cardiovascular risk factors have poor prognostic value for individuals and screening for subclinical organ damage has been recommended in hypertension in recent guidelines. The aim of this review was to investigate the clinical impact of the additive prognostic information provided...... by measuring subclinical organ damage. We have (i) reviewed recent studies linking markers of subclinical organ damage in the heart, blood vessels and kidney to cardiovascular risk; (ii) discussed the evidence for improvement in cardiovascular risk prediction using markers of subclinical organ damage; (iii...

  13. FACOTRS TO DETERMINE RISK PERCEPTION OF CLIMATE CHANGE, AND ATTITUDE TOWARD ADAPTATION POLICY OF THE PUBLIC

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baba, Kenshi; Sugimoto, Takuya; Kubota, Hiromi; Hijioka, Yasuaki; Tanaka, Mitsuru

    This study clarifies the factors to determine risk perception of climate change and attitudes toward adaptation policy by analyzing the data collecting from Internet survey to the general public. The results indicate the followings: 1) more than 70% people perceive some sort of risk of climate change, and most people are awaken to wind and flood damage. 2) most people recognize that mitigation policy is much more important than adaptation policy, whereas most people assume to accept adaptation policy as self-reponsibility, 3) the significant factors to determinane risk perception of climate chage and attitude towerd adaptation policy are cognition of benefits on the policy and procedural justice in the policy process in addion to demographics such as gender, experience of disaster, intension of inhabitant.

  14. Risk-adaptive optimization: Selective boosting of high-risk tumor subvolumes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Yusung; Tome, Wolfgang A.

    2006-01-01

    Background and Purpose: A tumor subvolume-based, risk-adaptive optimization strategy is presented. Methods and Materials: Risk-adaptive optimization employs a biologic objective function instead of an objective function based on physical dose constraints. Using this biologic objective function, tumor control probability (TCP) is maximized for different tumor risk regions while at the same time minimizing normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) for organs at risk. The feasibility of risk-adaptive optimization was investigated for a variety of tumor subvolume geometries, risk-levels, and slopes of the TCP curve. Furthermore, the impact of a correlation parameter, δ, between TCP and NTCP on risk-adaptive optimization was investigated. Results: Employing risk-adaptive optimization, it is possible in a prostate cancer model to increase the equivalent uniform dose (EUD) by up to 35.4 Gy in tumor subvolumes having the highest risk classification without increasing predicted normal tissue complications in organs at risk. For all tumor subvolume geometries investigated, we found that the EUD to high-risk tumor subvolumes could be increased significantly without increasing normal tissue complications above those expected from a treatment plan aiming for uniform dose coverage of the planning target volume. We furthermore found that the tumor subvolume with the highest risk classification had the largest influence on the design of the risk-adaptive dose distribution. The parameter δ had little effect on risk-adaptive optimization. However, the clinical parameters D 5 and γ 5 that represent the risk classification of tumor subvolumes had the largest impact on risk-adaptive optimization. Conclusions: On the whole, risk-adaptive optimization yields heterogeneous dose distributions that match the risk level distribution of different subvolumes within the tumor volume

  15. Integrating adaptive behaviour in large-scale flood risk assessments: an Agent-Based Modelling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haer, Toon; Aerts, Jeroen

    2015-04-01

    Between 1998 and 2009, Europe suffered over 213 major damaging floods, causing 1126 deaths, displacing around half a million people. In this period, floods caused at least 52 billion euro in insured economic losses making floods the most costly natural hazard faced in Europe. In many low-lying areas, the main strategy to cope with floods is to reduce the risk of the hazard through flood defence structures, like dikes and levees. However, it is suggested that part of the responsibility for flood protection needs to shift to households and businesses in areas at risk, and that governments and insurers can effectively stimulate the implementation of individual protective measures. However, adaptive behaviour towards flood risk reduction and the interaction between the government, insurers, and individuals has hardly been studied in large-scale flood risk assessments. In this study, an European Agent-Based Model is developed including agent representatives for the administrative stakeholders of European Member states, insurers and reinsurers markets, and individuals following complex behaviour models. The Agent-Based Modelling approach allows for an in-depth analysis of the interaction between heterogeneous autonomous agents and the resulting (non-)adaptive behaviour. Existing flood damage models are part of the European Agent-Based Model to allow for a dynamic response of both the agents and the environment to changing flood risk and protective efforts. By following an Agent-Based Modelling approach this study is a first contribution to overcome the limitations of traditional large-scale flood risk models in which the influence of individual adaptive behaviour towards flood risk reduction is often lacking.

  16. Damage-reducing measures to manage flood risks in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kreibich, Heidi; Bubeck, Philip; Van Vliet, Mathijs; De Moel, Hans

    2014-05-01

    Damage due to floods has increased during the last few decades, and further increases are expected in several regions due to climate change and a growing vulnerability. To address the projected increase in flood risk, a combination of structural and non-structural flood risk mitigation measures is considered as a promising adaptation strategy. Such a combination takes into account that flood defence systems may fail, and prepare for unexpected crisis situations via land-use planning, building construction, evacuation and disaster response. Non-structural flood risk mitigation measures like shielding with water shutters or sand bags, building fortification or safeguarding of hazardous substances are often voluntary: they demand self-dependent action by the population at risk (Bubeck et al. 2012; 2013). It is believed that these measures are especially effective in areas with frequent flood events and low flood water levels, but some types of measures showed a significant damage-reducing effect also during extreme flood events, such as the Elbe River flood in August 2002 in Germany (Kreibich et al. 2005; 2011). Despite the growing importance of damage-reducing measures, information is still scarce about factors that motivate people to undertake such measures, the state of implementation of various non-structural measures in different countries and their damage reducing effects. Thus, we collected information and undertook an international review about this topic in the framework of the Dutch KfC project "Climate proof flood risk management". The contribution will present an overview about the available information on damage-reducing measures and draw conclusions for practical flood risk management in a changing climate. References: Bubeck, P., Botzen, W. J. W., Suu, L. T. T., Aerts, J. C. J. H. (2012): Do flood risk perceptions provide useful insights for flood risk management? Findings from central Vietnam. Journal of Flood Risk Management, 5, 4, 295-302 Bubeck, P

  17. Socio-hydrological modelling of floods: investigating community resilience, adaptation capacity and risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciullo, Alessio; Viglione, Alberto; Castellarin, Attilio

    2016-04-01

    Changes in flood risk occur because of changes in climate and hydrology, and in societal exposure and vulnerability. Research on change in flood risk has demonstrated that the mutual interactions and continuous feedbacks between floods and societies has to be taken into account in flood risk management. The present work builds on an existing conceptual model of an hypothetical city located in the proximity of a river, along whose floodplains the community evolves over time. The model reproduces the dynamic co-evolution of four variables: flooding, population density of the flooplain, amount of structural protection measures and memory of floods. These variables are then combined in a way to mimic the temporal change of community resilience, defined as the (inverse of the) amount of time for the community to recover from a shock, and adaptation capacity, defined as ratio between damages due to subsequent events. Also, temporal changing exposure, vulnerability and probability of flooding are also modelled, which results in a dynamically varying flood-risk. Examples are provided that show how factors such as collective memory and risk taking attitude influence the dynamics of community resilience, adaptation capacity and risk.

  18. Mild hyperthermia can induce adaptation to cytogenetic damage caused by subsequent X irradiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cai, Lu.; Jiang, Jie.

    1995-01-01

    Many low-level environmental agents are able to induce an increased resistance to subsequent mutagenic effects induced by ionizing radiation. In this paper, an induced cytogenetic adaptation to radiation in human lymphocytes was studied with mild hyperthermia as the adaptive treatment and compared with that induced by low-dose radiation. We found that this adaptation could be induced not only in PHA-stimulated human lymphocytes (at 14, 38 and 42 h after addition of PHA), but also in unstimulated G 0 -phase cells (before addition of PHA) by mild hyperthermia (41 degrees C for 1 h) as well as 50 mGy X rays. When the two adaptive treatments were combined, no additive effects on the magnitude of the adaptation induced were observed, suggesting that low-dose radiation and hyperthermia may share one mechanism of induction of adaptation to cytogenetic damage. Some mechanisms which may be involved in the induction of adaptation to cytogenetic damage by low-dose radiation are discussed and compared with the effects of mild hyperthermia in inducing thermotolerance and radioresistance. 56 refs., 4 figs., 3 tabs

  19. Assessment of Damage and Adaptation Strategies for Structures and Infrastructure from Storm Surge and Sea Level Rise for a Coastal Community in Rhode Island, United States

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher Small

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an evaluation of inundation, erosion, and wave damage for a coastal community in Rhode Island, USA. A methodology called the Coastal Environmental Risk Index (CERI was used that incorporates levels of inundation including sea level rise, wave heights using STWAVE, and detailed information about individual structures from an E911 database. This information was input into damage functions developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers following Hurricane Sandy. Damage from erosion was evaluated separately from local published erosion rates. Using CERI, two different adaptation strategies were evaluated that included a combination of dune restoration, protective berms, and a tide gate. A total of 151 out of 708 structures were estimated to be protected from inundation and wave action by the combined measures. More importantly, the use of CERI allowed for the assessment of the impact of different adaptation strategies on both individual structures and an entire community in a Geographical Information Systems (GIS environment. This tool shows promise for use by coastal managers to assess damage and mitigate risk to coastal communities.

  20. Uncertainty and Sensitivity of Direct Economic Flood Damages: the FloodRisk Free and Open-Source Software

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albano, R.; Sole, A.; Mancusi, L.; Cantisani, A.; Perrone, A.

    2017-12-01

    The considerable increase of flood damages in the the past decades has shifted in Europe the attention from protection against floods to managing flood risks. In this context, the expected damages assessment represents a crucial information within the overall flood risk management process. The present paper proposes an open source software, called FloodRisk, that is able to operatively support stakeholders in the decision making processes with a what-if approach by carrying out the rapid assessment of the flood consequences, in terms of direct economic damage and loss of human lives. The evaluation of the damage scenarios, trough the use of the GIS software proposed here, is essential for cost-benefit or multi-criteria analysis of risk mitigation alternatives. However, considering that quantitative assessment of flood damages scenarios is characterized by intrinsic uncertainty, a scheme has been developed to identify and quantify the role of the input parameters in the total uncertainty of flood loss model application in urban areas with mild terrain and complex topography. By the concept of parallel models, the contribution of different module and input parameters to the total uncertainty is quantified. The results of the present case study have exhibited a high epistemic uncertainty on the damage estimation module and, in particular, on the type and form of the utilized damage functions, which have been adapted and transferred from different geographic and socio-economic contexts because there aren't depth-damage functions that are specifically developed for Italy. Considering that uncertainty and sensitivity depend considerably on local characteristics, the epistemic uncertainty associated with the risk estimate is reduced by introducing additional information into the risk analysis. In the light of the obtained results, it is evident the need to produce and disseminate (open) data to develop micro-scale vulnerability curves. Moreover, the urgent need to push

  1. A sequential model to link contextual risk, perception and public support for flood adaptation policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shao, Wanyun; Xian, Siyuan; Lin, Ning; Small, Mitchell J

    2017-10-01

    The economic damage from coastal flooding has dramatically increased over the past several decades, owing to rapid development in shoreline areas and possible effects of climate change. To respond to these trends, it is imperative for policy makers to understand individuals' support for flood adaptation policy. Using original survey data for all coastal counties of the United States Gulf Coast merged with contextual data on flood risk, this study investigates coastal residents' support for two adaptation policy measures: incentives for relocation and funding for educational programs on emergency planning and evacuation. Specifically, this study explores the interactive relationships among contextual flood risks, perceived flood risks and policy support for flood adaptation, with the effects of social-demographic variables being controlled. Age, gender, race and partisanship are found to significantly affect individuals' policy support for both adaptation measures. The contextual flooding risks, indicated by distance from the coast, maximum wind speed and peak height of storm surge associated with the last hurricane landfall, and percentage of high-risk flood zone per county, are shown to impact one's perceptions of risk, which in turn influence one's support for both policy measures. The key finding -risk perception mediates the impact of contextual risk conditions on public support for flood management policies - highlights the need to ensure that the public is well informed by the latest scientific, engineering and economic knowledge. To achieve this, more information on current and future flood risks and options available for mitigation as well as risk communication tools are needed. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Molecular mechanism of radioadaptive response: A cross-adaptive response for enhanced repair of DNA damage in adapted cells

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takaji Ikushima

    1997-01-01

    The radioadaptive response (RAR) has been attributed to the induction of a repair mechanism by low doses of ionizing radiation, but the molecular nature of the mechanism is not yet elucidated. We have characterized RAR in a series of experiments in cultured Chinese hamster V79 cells. A 4-h interval is required for the full expression of RAR, which decays with the progression of cell proliferation. Treatments with inhibitors of poly(ADP-ribose) polymerase, protein- or RNA synthesis, and protein kinase C suppress the RAR expression. The RAR cross-reacts on clastogenic lesions induced by other physical and chemical DNA-damaging agents. The presence of newly synthesised proteins has been detected during the expression period. Experiments performed using single-cell gel electrophoresis provided more direct evidence for a faster and enhaced DNA repair rate in adapted cells. Here, using single-cell gel electrophoresis, a cross-adaptive response has been demonstrated for enhanced repair of DNA damage induced by neocarzinostatin in radio-adapted cells. (author)

  3. Human Lung Cancer Risks from Radon – Part II – Influence from Combined Adaptive Response and Bystander Effects – A Microdose Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonard, Bobby E.; Thompson, Richard E.; Beecher, Georgia C.

    2010-01-01

    In the prior Part I, the potential influence of the low level alpha radiation induced bystander effect (BE) on human lung cancer risks was examined. Recent analysis of adaptive response (AR) research results with a Microdose Model has shown that single low LET radiation induced charged particles traversals through the cell nucleus activates AR. We have here conducted an analysis based on what is presently known about adaptive response and the bystander effect (BE) and what new research is needed that can assist in the further evaluation human cancer risks from radon. We find that, at the UNSCEAR (2000) worldwide average human exposures from natural background and man-made radiations, the human lung receives about a 25% adaptive response protection against the radon alpha bystander damage. At the UNSCEAR (2000) minimum range of background exposure levels, the lung receives minimal AR protection but at higher background levels, in the high UNSCEAR (2000) range, the lung receives essentially 100% protection from both the radon alpha damage and also the endogenic, spontaneously occurring, potentially carcinogenic, lung cellular damage. PMID:22461760

  4. The Importance of Damage Potential for Avalanche Risk Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keiler, M.; Fuchs, S.

    2003-04-01

    Risk is normally expressed as a function of recurrence probability of a process and its related damage potential. Various physical and empirical models describing the process aspect of the risk formula exist in the field of avalanche risk management while studies on damage potential are rare. Due to the changes of the socio-economic structures in mountain regions (urban sprawl, population growth, increased mobility and tourism) these studies are mandatory. This study focuses on different possibilities to obtain obligatory input parameters for multitemporal studies in settlement areas. A conceptual method that records the damage potential (probability of presence, evaluation of buildings) was developed and applied in Tyrol, Austria. A second approach, working with real-time insurance values for buildings and population growth, was tested in Grison, Switzerland. The different developments of the damage potential in the two alpine study areas are highlighted; their influences on the risk formula are discussed. The results of both studies show the advantages and disadvantages of each method, such as precision, amount of time needed and possibilities of implementing in a GIS. The results serve to improve risk determination and point out an unnoticed increase of damage potential and risk in apparently safe settlement areas.

  5. Capturing changes in flood risk with Bayesian approaches for flood damage assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogel, Kristin; Schröter, Kai; Kreibich, Heidi; Thieken, Annegret; Müller, Meike; Sieg, Tobias; Laudan, Jonas; Kienzler, Sarah; Weise, Laura; Merz, Bruno; Scherbaum, Frank

    2016-04-01

    Flood risk is a function of hazard as well as of exposure and vulnerability. All three components are under change over space and time and have to be considered for reliable damage estimations and risk analyses, since this is the basis for an efficient, adaptable risk management. Hitherto, models for estimating flood damage are comparatively simple and cannot sufficiently account for changing conditions. The Bayesian network approach allows for a multivariate modeling of complex systems without relying on expert knowledge about physical constraints. In a Bayesian network each model component is considered to be a random variable. The way of interactions between those variables can be learned from observations or be defined by expert knowledge. Even a combination of both is possible. Moreover, the probabilistic framework captures uncertainties related to the prediction and provides a probability distribution for the damage instead of a point estimate. The graphical representation of Bayesian networks helps to study the change of probabilities for changing circumstances and may thus simplify the communication between scientists and public authorities. In the framework of the DFG-Research Training Group "NatRiskChange" we aim to develop Bayesian networks for flood damage and vulnerability assessments of residential buildings and companies under changing conditions. A Bayesian network learned from data, collected over the last 15 years in flooded regions in the Elbe and Danube catchments (Germany), reveals the impact of many variables like building characteristics, precaution and warning situation on flood damage to residential buildings. While the handling of incomplete and hybrid (discrete mixed with continuous) data are the most challenging issues in the study on residential buildings, a similar study, that focuses on the vulnerability of small to medium sized companies, bears new challenges. Relying on a much smaller data set for the determination of the model

  6. Assessing damage cost estimation of urban pluvial flood risk as a mean of improving climate change adaptations investments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skovgård Olsen, Anders; Zhou, Qianqian; Linde, Jens Jørgen

    Estimating the expected annual damage (EAD) due to flooding in an urban area is of great interest for urban water managers and other stakeholders. It is a strong indicator for a given area showing how it will be affected by climate change and how much can be gained by implementing adaptation...... measures. This study investigates three different methods for estimating the EAD based on a loglinear relation between the damage costs and the return periods, one of which has been used in previous studies. The results show with the increased amount of data points there appears to be a shift in the log......-linear relation which could be contributed by the Danish design standards for drainage systems. Three different methods for estimating the EAD were tested and the choice of method is less important than accounting for the log-linear shift. This then also means that the statistical approximation of the EAD used...

  7. Accommodating the Challenges of Climate Change Adaptation and Governance in Conventional Risk Management: Adaptive Collaborative Risk Management (ACRM)

    OpenAIRE

    Bradley May; Ryan Plummer

    2011-01-01

    Risk management is a well established tool for climate change adaptation. It is facing new challenges with the end of climate stationarity and the need to meaningfully engage people in governance issues. The ways in which conventional approaches to risk management can respond to these challenges are explored. Conventional approaches to risk management are summarized, the manner in which they are being advanced as a tool for climate change adaptation is described, and emerging themes in risk m...

  8. The Climate Adaptation Frontier

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Preston, Benjamin L [ORNL

    2013-01-01

    Climate adaptation has emerged as a mainstream risk management strategy for assisting in maintaining socio-ecological systems within the boundaries of a safe operating space. Yet, there are limits to the ability of systems to adapt. Here, we introduce the concept of an adaptation frontier , which is defined as a socio-ecological system s transitional adaptive operating space between safe and unsafe domains. A number of driving forces are responsible for determining the sustainability of systems on the frontier. These include path dependence, adaptation/development deficits, values conflicts and discounting of future loss and damage. The cumulative implications of these driving forces are highly uncertain. Nevertheless, the fact that a broad range of systems already persist at the edge of their frontiers suggests a high likelihood that some limits will eventually be exceeded. The resulting system transformation is likely to manifest as anticipatory modification of management objectives or loss and damage. These outcomes vary significantly with respect to their ethical implications. Successful navigation of the adaptation frontier will necessitate new paradigms of risk governance to elicit knowledge that encourages reflexive reevaluation of societal values that enable or constrain sustainability.

  9. Optimal CO2 mitigation under damage risk valuation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crost, Benjamin; Traeger, Christian P.

    2014-07-01

    The current generation has to set mitigation policy under uncertainty about the economic consequences of climate change. This uncertainty governs both the level of damages for a given level of warming, and the steepness of the increase in damage per warming degree. Our model of climate and the economy is a stochastic version of a model employed in assessing the US Social Cost of Carbon (DICE). We compute the optimal carbon taxes and CO2 abatement levels that maximize welfare from economic consumption over time under different risk states. In accordance with recent developments in finance, we separate preferences about time and risk to improve the model's calibration of welfare to observed market interest. We show that introducing the modern asset pricing framework doubles optimal abatement and carbon taxation. Uncertainty over the level of damages at a given temperature increase can result in a slight increase of optimal emissions as compared to using expected damages. In contrast, uncertainty governing the steepness of the damage increase in temperature results in a substantially higher level of optimal mitigation.

  10. DNA Damage Signals and Space Radiation Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cucinotta, Francis A.

    2011-01-01

    Space radiation is comprised of high-energy and charge (HZE) nuclei and protons. The initial DNA damage from HZE nuclei is qualitatively different from X-rays or gamma rays due to the clustering of damage sites which increases their complexity. Clustering of DNA damage occurs on several scales. First there is clustering of single strand breaks (SSB), double strand breaks (DSB), and base damage within a few to several hundred base pairs (bp). A second form of damage clustering occurs on the scale of a few kbp where several DSB?s may be induced by single HZE nuclei. These forms of damage clusters do not occur at low to moderate doses of X-rays or gamma rays thus presenting new challenges to DNA repair systems. We review current knowledge of differences that occur in DNA repair pathways for different types of radiation and possible relationships to mutations, chromosomal aberrations and cancer risks.

  11. World Health Organization cardiovascular risk stratification and target organ damage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piskorz, D; Bongarzoni, L; Citta, L; Citta, N; Citta, P; Keller, L; Mata, L; Tommasi, A

    2016-01-01

    Prediction charts allow treatment to be targeted according to simple markers of cardiovascular risk; many algorithms do not recommend screening asymptomatic target organ damage which could change dramatically the assessment. To demonstrate that target organ damage is present in low cardiovascular risk hypertensive patients and it is more frequent and severe as global cardiovascular risk increases. Consecutive hypertensive patients treated at a single Latin American center. Cardiovascular risk stratified according to 2013 WHO/ISH risk prediction chart America B. Left ventricular mass assessed by Devereux method, left ventricular hypertrophy considered >95g/m(2) in women and >115g/m(2) in men. Transmitral diastolic peak early flow velocity to average septal/lateral peak early diastolic relaxation velocity (E/e' ratio) measured cut off value >13. Systolic function assessed by tissue Doppler average interventricular septum/lateral wall mitral annulus rate systolic excursion (s wave). A total of 292 patients were included of whom 159 patients (54.5%) had cardiovascular risk of 20%. Left ventricular hypertrophy was detected in 17.6% low risk patients, 27.8% in medium risk and 23.3% in high risk (p<0.05), abnormal E/e' ratio was found in 13.8%, 31.1% and 27.9%, respectively (p<0.05). Mean s wave was 8.03+8, 8.1+9 and 8.7+1cm/s for low, intermediate and high risk patients, respectively (p<0.025). Target organ damage is more frequent and severe in high risk; one over four subjects was misclassified due to the presence of asymptomatic target organ damage. Copyright © 2015 SEHLELHA. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  12. Collision Risk and Damage after Collision

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Preben Terndrup; Hansen, Peter Friis; Nielsen, Lars Peter

    1996-01-01

    The paper presents a new and complete procedure for calculation of ship-ship collision rates on specific routes and the hull damage caused by such collisions.The procedure is applied to analysis of collision risks for Ro-Ro pasenger vessels. Given a collision the spatial probability distribution ...

  13. Climate change adaptation, damages and fossil fuel dependence. An RETD position paper on the costs of inaction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Katofsky, Ryan; Stanberry, Matt; Hagenstad, Marca; Frantzis, Lisa

    2011-07-15

    The Renewable Energy Technology Deployment (RETD) agreement initiated this project to advance the understanding of the ''Costs of Inaction'', i.e. the costs of climate change adaptation, damages and fossil fuel dependence. A quantitative estimate was developed as well as a better understanding of the knowledge gaps and research needs. The project also included some conceptual work on how to better integrate the analyses of mitigation, adaptation, damages and fossil fuel dependence in energy scenario modelling.

  14. Preconditioning of skeletal muscle against contraction-induced damage: the role of adaptations to oxidants in mice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McArdle, F; Spiers, S; Aldemir, H; Vasilaki, A; Beaver, A; Iwanejko, L; McArdle, A; Jackson, M J

    2004-11-15

    Adaptations of skeletal muscle following exercise are accompanied by changes in gene expression, which can result in protection against subsequent potentially damaging exercise. One cellular signal activating these adaptations may be an increased production of reactive oxygen and nitrogen species (ROS). The aim of this study was to examine the effect of a short period of non-damaging contractions on the subsequent susceptibility of muscle to contraction-induced damage and to examine the changes in gene expression that occur following the initial contraction protocol. Comparisons with changes in gene expression in cultured myotubes following treatment with a non-damaging concentration of hydrogen peroxide (H(2)O(2)) were used to identify redox-sensitive genes whose expression may be modified by the increased ROS production during contractions. Hindlimb muscles of mice were subjected to a preconditioning, non-damaging isometric contraction protocol in vivo. After 4 or 12 h, extensor digitorum longus (EDL) and soleus muscles were removed and subjected to a (normally) damaging contraction protocol in vitro. Muscles were also analysed for changes in gene expression induced by the preconditioning protocol using cDNA expression techniques. In a parallel study, C(2)C(12) myotubes were treated with a non-damaging concentration (100 microM) of H(2)O(2) and, at 4 and 12 h following treatment, myotubes were treated with a damaging concentration of H(2)O(2) (2 mM). Myotubes were analysed for changes in gene expression at 4 h following treatment with 100 microM H(2)O(2) alone. Data demonstrate that a prior period of non-damaging contractile activity resulted in significant protection of EDL and soleus muscles against a normally damaging contraction protocol 4 h later. This protection was associated with significant changes in gene expression. Prior treatment of myotubes with a non-damaging concentration of H(2)O(2) also resulted in significant protection against a damaging

  15. Relative implications of protective responses versus damage induction at low dose and low-dose-rate exposures, using the microdose approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Feinendegen, L.E

    2003-07-01

    In reviewing tissue effects of low-dose radiation (1) absorbed dose to tissue is replaced by the sum of energy deposited with track events in cell-equivalent tissue micromasses, i.e. with microdose hits, in the number of exposed micromasses and (2) induced cell damage and adaptive protection are related to microdose hits in exposed micromasses for a given radiation quality. DNA damage increases with the number of microdose hits. They also can induce adaptive protection, mainly against endogenous DNA damage. This protection involves cellular defenses, DNA repair and damage removal. With increasing numbers of low linear energy transfer (LET) microdose hits in exposed micromasses, adaptive protection first tends to outweigh damage and then (above 200 mGy) fails and largely disappears. These experimental data predict that cancer risk coefficients derived by epidemiology at high-dose irradiation decline at low doses and dose rates when adaptive protection outdoes DNA damage. The dose-risk function should include both linear and non-linear terms at low doses. (author)

  16. Relative implications of protective responses versus damage induction at low dose and low-dose-rate exposures, using the microdose approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Feinendegen, L.E.

    2003-01-01

    In reviewing tissue effects of low-dose radiation (1) absorbed dose to tissue is replaced by the sum of energy deposited with track events in cell-equivalent tissue micromasses, i.e. with microdose hits, in the number of exposed micromasses and (2) induced cell damage and adaptive protection are related to microdose hits in exposed micromasses for a given radiation quality. DNA damage increases with the number of microdose hits. They also can induce adaptive protection, mainly against endogenous DNA damage. This protection involves cellular defenses, DNA repair and damage removal. With increasing numbers of low linear energy transfer (LET) microdose hits in exposed micromasses, adaptive protection first tends to outweigh damage and then (above 200 mGy) fails and largely disappears. These experimental data predict that cancer risk coefficients derived by epidemiology at high-dose irradiation decline at low doses and dose rates when adaptive protection outdoes DNA damage. The dose-risk function should include both linear and non-linear terms at low doses. (author)

  17. Leisure noise exposure: participation trends, symptoms of hearing damage, and perception of risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beach, Elizabeth Francis; Gilliver, Megan; Williams, Warwick

    2013-02-01

    Leisure activities that emit high noise levels have the potential to expose participants to excessive noise exposure, which can result in hearing damage. This study investigated young people's participation in high-noise leisure activities and the relationship between their leisure noise exposure, symptoms of hearing damage, and perception of risk. Participants completed an online survey relating to participation in selected high-noise leisure activities, symptoms of hearing damage, and beliefs about the risk posed by these activities. One thousand 18- to 35-year-old Australian adults completed the survey. Annual noise exposure from the five leisure activities ranged from 0-6.77 times the acceptable noise exposure, with nightclubs posing the greatest risk. Those who attended one noisy activity were more likely to attend others, in particular nightclubs, pubs, and live music events. Noise exposure was correlated with early warning signs of hearing damage and perceived risk of damage. Active young adults who engage in noisy activities are showing early signs of hearing damage. Furthermore, they perceive the risk associated with their activities. The challenge for researchers and hearing health practitioners is to convert self-perceived risk into positive hearing health behaviours for long-term hearing health.

  18. Risk sensitivity as an evolutionary adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hintze, Arend; Olson, Randal S.; Adami, Christoph; Hertwig, Ralph

    2015-02-01

    Risk aversion is a common behavior universal to humans and animals alike. Economists have traditionally defined risk preferences by the curvature of the utility function. Psychologists and behavioral economists also make use of concepts such as loss aversion and probability weighting to model risk aversion. Neurophysiological evidence suggests that loss aversion has its origins in relatively ancient neural circuitries (e.g., ventral striatum). Could there thus be an evolutionary origin to risk aversion? We study this question by evolving strategies that adapt to play the equivalent mean payoff gamble. We hypothesize that risk aversion in this gamble is beneficial as an adaptation to living in small groups, and find that a preference for risk averse strategies only evolves in small populations of less than 1,000 individuals, or in populations segmented into groups of 150 individuals or fewer - numbers thought to be comparable to what humans encountered in the past. We observe that risk aversion only evolves when the gamble is a rare event that has a large impact on the individual's fitness. As such, we suggest that rare, high-risk, high-payoff events such as mating and mate competition could have driven the evolution of risk averse behavior in humans living in small groups.

  19. Risk sensitivity as an evolutionary adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hintze, Arend; Olson, Randal S.; Adami, Christoph; Hertwig, Ralph

    2015-01-01

    Risk aversion is a common behavior universal to humans and animals alike. Economists have traditionally defined risk preferences by the curvature of the utility function. Psychologists and behavioral economists also make use of concepts such as loss aversion and probability weighting to model risk aversion. Neurophysiological evidence suggests that loss aversion has its origins in relatively ancient neural circuitries (e.g., ventral striatum). Could there thus be an evolutionary origin to risk aversion? We study this question by evolving strategies that adapt to play the equivalent mean payoff gamble. We hypothesize that risk aversion in this gamble is beneficial as an adaptation to living in small groups, and find that a preference for risk averse strategies only evolves in small populations of less than 1,000 individuals, or in populations segmented into groups of 150 individuals or fewer – numbers thought to be comparable to what humans encountered in the past. We observe that risk aversion only evolves when the gamble is a rare event that has a large impact on the individual's fitness. As such, we suggest that rare, high-risk, high-payoff events such as mating and mate competition could have driven the evolution of risk averse behavior in humans living in small groups. PMID:25649757

  20. Features of risks, damage claims processing and damage prevention overseas. Pt. 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Splittgerber, E

    1981-01-01

    In opening up new raw material resources in remote locations and in the erection of industrial installations in overseas countries, manufacturers are often confronted with additional, unusual and hitherto unknown risks which can have considerable influence upon the orderly and timely execution of their projects. In Part I, various risk factors are considered from the experiences of Allianz as technical insurer in foreign damages connected with plant, civil and installation work insurance. The influence of climatic conditions upon damage events is illustrated with examples and the effects of storm, sand storm, flooding and earthquake discussed using a world map of natural dangers. The customs of people from culturally different nations and races, dictated as they often are by religion, must be taken into account by site managers and other staff on the building sites. The necessity for improvisations on building sites far from home and the limits of such improvisations are also discussed.

  1. Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adger, W. Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja

    2018-01-01

    Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy’. PMID:29712800

  2. Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adger, W Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja

    2018-06-13

    Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts.This article is part of the theme issue 'Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'. © 2018 The Author(s).

  3. Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adger, W. Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja

    2018-06-01

    Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts. This article is part of the theme issue `Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

  4. Signs of long-term adaptation to permanent brain damage as revealed by prehension studies of children with spastic hemiparesis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Steenbergen, B.; Meulenbroek, R.G.J.; Latash, M.L.; Levin, M.

    2003-01-01

    This chapter focusses on signs of long-term adaptation to permanent brain damage in children with spastic hemiparesis. First, we recognize that adaptation processes may occur at various time scales. Then, we formulate a tentative strategy to infer signs of adaptation from behavioral data.

  5. Flood damage curves for consistent global risk assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Moel, Hans; Huizinga, Jan; Szewczyk, Wojtek

    2016-04-01

    Assessing potential damage of flood events is an important component in flood risk management. Determining direct flood damage is commonly done using depth-damage curves, which denote the flood damage that would occur at specific water depths per asset or land-use class. Many countries around the world have developed flood damage models using such curves which are based on analysis of past flood events and/or on expert judgement. However, such damage curves are not available for all regions, which hampers damage assessments in those regions. Moreover, due to different methodologies employed for various damage models in different countries, damage assessments cannot be directly compared with each other, obstructing also supra-national flood damage assessments. To address these problems, a globally consistent dataset of depth-damage curves has been developed. This dataset contains damage curves depicting percent of damage as a function of water depth as well as maximum damage values for a variety of assets and land use classes (i.e. residential, commercial, agriculture). Based on an extensive literature survey concave damage curves have been developed for each continent, while differentiation in flood damage between countries is established by determining maximum damage values at the country scale. These maximum damage values are based on construction cost surveys from multinational construction companies, which provide a coherent set of detailed building cost data across dozens of countries. A consistent set of maximum flood damage values for all countries was computed using statistical regressions with socio-economic World Development Indicators from the World Bank. Further, based on insights from the literature survey, guidance is also given on how the damage curves and maximum damage values can be adjusted for specific local circumstances, such as urban vs. rural locations, use of specific building material, etc. This dataset can be used for consistent supra

  6. Age-related mechanical strength evolution of trabecular bone under fatigue damage for both genders: Fracture risk evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ben Kahla, Rabeb; Barkaoui, Abdelwahed; Merzouki, Tarek

    2018-05-04

    Bone tissue is a living composite material, providing mechanical and homeostatic functions, and able to constantly adapt its microstructure to changes in long term loading. This adaptation is conducted by a physiological process, known as "bone remodeling". This latter is manifested by interactions between osteoclasts and osteoblasts, and can be influenced by many local factors, via effects on bone cell differentiation and proliferation. In the current work, age and gender effects on damage rate evolution, throughout life, have been investigated using a mechanobiological finite element modeling. To achieve the aim, a mathematical model has been developed, coupling both cell activities and mechanical behavior of trabecular bone, under cyclic loadings. A series of computational simulations (ABAQUS/UMAT) has been performed on a 3D human proximal femur, allowing to investigate the effects of mechanical and biological parameters on mechanical strength of trabecular bone, in order to evaluate the fracture risk resulting from fatigue damage. The obtained results revealed that mechanical stimulus amplitude affects bone resorption and formation rates, and indicated that age and gender are major factors in bone response to the applied loadings. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Full-Scaled Advanced Systems Testbed: Ensuring Success of Adaptive Control Research Through Project Lifecycle Risk Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pavlock, Kate M.

    2011-01-01

    The National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Dryden Flight Research Center completed flight testing of adaptive controls research on the Full-Scale Advance Systems Testbed (FAST) in January of 2011. The research addressed technical challenges involved with reducing risk in an increasingly complex and dynamic national airspace. Specific challenges lie with the development of validated, multidisciplinary, integrated aircraft control design tools and techniques to enable safe flight in the presence of adverse conditions such as structural damage, control surface failures, or aerodynamic upsets. The testbed is an F-18 aircraft serving as a full-scale vehicle to test and validate adaptive flight control research and lends a significant confidence to the development, maturation, and acceptance process of incorporating adaptive control laws into follow-on research and the operational environment. The experimental systems integrated into FAST were designed to allow for flexible yet safe flight test evaluation and validation of modern adaptive control technologies and revolve around two major hardware upgrades: the modification of Production Support Flight Control Computers (PSFCC) and integration of two, fourth-generation Airborne Research Test Systems (ARTS). Post-hardware integration verification and validation provided the foundation for safe flight test of Nonlinear Dynamic Inversion and Model Reference Aircraft Control adaptive control law experiments. To ensure success of flight in terms of cost, schedule, and test results, emphasis on risk management was incorporated into early stages of design and flight test planning and continued through the execution of each flight test mission. Specific consideration was made to incorporate safety features within the hardware and software to alleviate user demands as well as into test processes and training to reduce human factor impacts to safe and successful flight test. This paper describes the research configuration

  8. Assessment of the effectiveness of flood adaptation strategies for HCMC

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lasage, R.; Veldkamp, T. I. E.; de Moel, H.; Van, T. C.; Phi, H. L.; Vellinga, P.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.

    2014-06-01

    Coastal cities are vulnerable to flooding, and flood risk to coastal cities will increase due to sea-level rise. Moreover, Asian cities in particular are subject to considerable population growth and associated urban developments, increasing this risk even more. Empirical data on vulnerability and the cost and benefits of flood risk reduction measures are therefore paramount for sustainable development of these cities. This paper presents an approach to explore the impacts of sea-level rise and socio-economic developments on flood risk for the flood-prone District 4 in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, and to develop and evaluate the effects of different adaptation strategies (new levees, dry- and wet proofing of buildings and elevating roads and buildings). A flood damage model was developed to simulate current and future flood risk using the results from a household survey to establish stage-damage curves for residential buildings. The model has been used to assess the effects of several participatory developed adaptation strategies to reduce flood risk, expressed in expected annual damage (EAD). Adaptation strategies were evaluated assuming combinations of both sea-level scenarios and land-use scenarios. Together with information on costs of these strategies, we calculated the benefit-cost ratio and net present value for the adaptation strategies until 2100, taking into account depreciation rates of 2.5% and 5%. The results of this modelling study indicate that the current flood risk in District 4 is USD 0.31 million per year, increasing up to USD 0.78 million per year in 2100. The net present value and benefit-cost ratios using a discount rate of 5 % range from USD -107 to -1.5 million, and from 0.086 to 0.796 for the different strategies. Using a discount rate of 2.5% leads to an increase in both net present value and benefit-cost ratio. The adaptation strategies wet-proofing and dry-proofing generate the best results using these economic indicators. The information

  9. Flight Test Approach to Adaptive Control Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pavlock, Kate Maureen; Less, James L.; Larson, David Nils

    2011-01-01

    The National Aeronautics and Space Administration s Dryden Flight Research Center completed flight testing of adaptive controls research on a full-scale F-18 testbed. The validation of adaptive controls has the potential to enhance safety in the presence of adverse conditions such as structural damage or control surface failures. This paper describes the research interface architecture, risk mitigations, flight test approach and lessons learned of adaptive controls research.

  10. Alleviating inequality in climate policy costs : An integrated perspective on mitigation, damage and adaptation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    De Cian, E.; Hof, A. F.; Marangoni, G.; Tavoni, M.; van Vuuren, Detlef

    2016-01-01

    Equity considerations play an important role in international climate negotiations. While policy analysis has often focused on equity as it relates to mitigation costs, there are large regional differences in adaptation costs and the level of residual damage. This paper illustrates the relevance of

  11. Terrorism cover in France for property damage including nuclear risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stanislas, A.

    2004-01-01

    The obligation to include terrorism cover in all Property Damage policies issued on the French Market is ruled by an Act of 1986 and introduced under Section R 126-2 of the French Code of Insurance. This section stipulates that Property Damage policies must provide cover for damage resulting from acts of terrorism, with the same deductible and the same limit than that of the other damage covered in the policy. Soon after the dramatic events of September 11, 2001 in the United States and although reinsurers worldwide restricted their offer of capacities, French insurers recognized that they had to maintain this global cover for the benefit of their insurers. After difficult discussions between insurers, reinsurers, brokers, risk managers and representatives of the State, the creation of a new Pool, backed with a State guarantee, was decided in less than three months. Effective January 1, 2002 and called Gestion d'Assurance et de Reassurance des Risques Attentats et Actes de Terrorisme (GAREAT), the Pool offers a multiple layers stop-loss cover for Property Damage only, i.e. excluding TPL policies. Considering that nuclear risks should be treated in the same way as other industrial risks, it was decided that they would be covered by GAREAT as well. In the meantime, by a Decree of December 28, 2001 modifying Section R 126-2, a special provision, aiming at reducing the limit and thus the price of this cover, was introduced in the Code. The purpose of this paper is to expose the present situation applying through GAREAT and, after two years of operation to discuss future developments, including other sources of capacity for the coverage of acts of terrorism in nuclear risks insurance.(author)

  12. Reconstructing patterns of temperature, phenology, and frost damage over 124 years: spring damage risk is increasing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Augspurger, Carol K

    2013-01-01

    Climate change, with both warmer spring temperatures and greater temperature fluctuations, has altered phenologies, possibly leading to greater risk of spring frost damage to temperate deciduous woody plants. Phenological observations of 20 woody species from 1993 to 2012 in Trelease Woods, Champaign County, Illinois, USA, were used to identify years with frost damage to vegetative and reproductive phases. Local temperature records were used in combination with the phenological observations to determine what combinations of the two were associated with damage. Finally, a long-term temperature record (1889-1992) was evaluated to determine if the frequency of frost damage has risen in recent decades. Frost Frost damage occurred in five years in the interior and in three additional years at only the forest edge. The degree of damage varied with species, life stage, tissue (vegetative or reproductive), and phenological phase. Common features associated with the occurrence of damage to interior plants were (1) a period of unusual warm temperatures in March, followed by (2) a frost event in April with a minimum temperature frost damage increased significantly, from 0.03 during 1889-1979 to 0.21 during 1980-2012. When the criteria were "softened" to frost damage events more common.

  13. Assessment of the effectiveness of participatory developed adaptation strategies for HCMC

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lasage, R.; Veldkamp, T. I. E.; de Moel, H.; Van, T. C.; Phi, H. L.; Vellinga, P.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.

    2014-01-01

    Coastal cities are vulnerable to flooding, and flood risk to coastal cities will increase due to sea-level rise. Moreover, especially Asian cities are subject to considerable population growth and associated urban developments, increasing this risk even more. Empirical data on vulnerability and the cost and benefits of flood risk reducing measures are therefore paramount for sustainable development of these cities. This paper presents an approach to explore the impacts of sea level rise and socio-economic developments on flood risk for the flood prone District 4 in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, and to develop and evaluate the effects of different adaptation strategies (new levees, dry- and wet flood proofing of buildings). A flood damage model was developed to simulate current and future flood risk using the results from a household survey to establish stage-damage curves for residential buildings. the model has been used to assess the effects of several participatory developed adaptation strategies to reduce flood risk, expressed in Expected Annual Damage (EAD). Adaptation strategies were evaluated assuming combinations of both sea level scenarios and land use scenarios. Together with information on costs of these strategies, we calculated the benefit-cost ratio and net present value for the adaptation strategies until 2100, taking into account depreciation rates of 2.5% and 5%. The results of this modeling study indicate that the current flood risk in District 4 is 0.31 million USD yr-1, increasing up to 0.78 million USD yr-1 in 2100. The net present value and benefit-cost ratios using a discount rate of 5% range from USD -107 to -1.5 million, and from 0.086 to 0.796 for the different strategies. Using a discount rate of 2.5% leads to an increase in both net present value and benefit cost ratio. The adaptation strategies wet proofing and dry proofing generate the best results using these economic indicators. The information on different strategies will be used by

  14. Probabilistic, multi-variate flood damage modelling using random forests and Bayesian networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kreibich, Heidi; Schröter, Kai

    2015-04-01

    Decisions on flood risk management and adaptation are increasingly based on risk analyses. Such analyses are associated with considerable uncertainty, even more if changes in risk due to global change are expected. Although uncertainty analysis and probabilistic approaches have received increased attention recently, they are hardly applied in flood damage assessments. Most of the damage models usually applied in standard practice have in common that complex damaging processes are described by simple, deterministic approaches like stage-damage functions. This presentation will show approaches for probabilistic, multi-variate flood damage modelling on the micro- and meso-scale and discuss their potential and limitations. Reference: Merz, B.; Kreibich, H.; Lall, U. (2013): Multi-variate flood damage assessment: a tree-based data-mining approach. NHESS, 13(1), 53-64. Schröter, K., Kreibich, H., Vogel, K., Riggelsen, C., Scherbaum, F., Merz, B. (2014): How useful are complex flood damage models? - Water Resources Research, 50, 4, p. 3378-3395.

  15. Prevention of damage and 'residual risk' in nuclear power laws

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Greipl, C.

    1992-01-01

    The concept of prevention of damage within the framework of nuclear power laws includes averting danger for the protection of third parties and preventing risks for the partial protection of third parties with the proviso that still a desire to use the concept 'residual risk' in addition, it should be limited, on the grounds of what can be reasonably expected, to those risks which cannot be reduced any further by the government, i.e. to risks which the public in general and third parties ('actually') must accept. In the future, questions regarding safety systems should be taken into account exclusively withing the context of 'what is necessary for protection against damage in keeping with the latest developments in science and technology' and not at the discretion of the law in denying permission according to Article 7 Paragraph 2 Atomic Energy Law. (orig.) [de

  16. Risk-return relationship in a complex adaptive system.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kunyu Song

    Full Text Available For survival and development, autonomous agents in complex adaptive systems involving the human society must compete against or collaborate with others for sharing limited resources or wealth, by using different methods. One method is to invest, in order to obtain payoffs with risk. It is a common belief that investments with a positive risk-return relationship (namely, high risk high return and vice versa are dominant over those with a negative risk-return relationship (i.e., high risk low return and vice versa in the human society; the belief has a notable impact on daily investing activities of investors. Here we investigate the risk-return relationship in a model complex adaptive system, in order to study the effect of both market efficiency and closeness that exist in the human society and play an important role in helping to establish traditional finance/economics theories. We conduct a series of computer-aided human experiments, and also perform agent-based simulations and theoretical analysis to confirm the experimental observations and reveal the underlying mechanism. We report that investments with a negative risk-return relationship have dominance over those with a positive risk-return relationship instead in such a complex adaptive systems. We formulate the dynamical process for the system's evolution, which helps to discover the different role of identical and heterogeneous preferences. This work might be valuable not only to complexity science, but also to finance and economics, to management and social science, and to physics.

  17. Risk-return relationship in a complex adaptive system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Kunyu; An, Kenan; Yang, Guang; Huang, Jiping

    2012-01-01

    For survival and development, autonomous agents in complex adaptive systems involving the human society must compete against or collaborate with others for sharing limited resources or wealth, by using different methods. One method is to invest, in order to obtain payoffs with risk. It is a common belief that investments with a positive risk-return relationship (namely, high risk high return and vice versa) are dominant over those with a negative risk-return relationship (i.e., high risk low return and vice versa) in the human society; the belief has a notable impact on daily investing activities of investors. Here we investigate the risk-return relationship in a model complex adaptive system, in order to study the effect of both market efficiency and closeness that exist in the human society and play an important role in helping to establish traditional finance/economics theories. We conduct a series of computer-aided human experiments, and also perform agent-based simulations and theoretical analysis to confirm the experimental observations and reveal the underlying mechanism. We report that investments with a negative risk-return relationship have dominance over those with a positive risk-return relationship instead in such a complex adaptive systems. We formulate the dynamical process for the system's evolution, which helps to discover the different role of identical and heterogeneous preferences. This work might be valuable not only to complexity science, but also to finance and economics, to management and social science, and to physics.

  18. Climate change adaptation and the social factor; Klimatilpasning og den sociale faktor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kjerulf Petersen, L.; Jensen, Anne; Svalgaard Nielsen, S.

    2009-06-15

    This report addresses the social aspects of climate change adaptation. How do people perceive and relate to climate change adaptation; what risks are associated with climate change, and how are these risks balanced with other risks and concerns of everyday life and long-range choices? The report is based on an explorative study about social aspects of climate change adaptation in Denmark. The issue was investigated through literature studies and interviews with respondents with residence in different parts of Denmark. The study was based on a distinction between climate change mitigation and adaptation and further on an assumption in adaptation policies that some adaptation measures - for economic or practical reasons - will have to be carried out by private citizens and households. This study showed, however, that the distinction between climate change mitigation and adaptation is of little significance for lay people. Moreover, the prospect of climate change does provoke reflections on social values and the need for saving energy, but when it comes to protecting ones own life and property against future damaging effects of climate change the threat seems distant and other forms of home improvement seem more relevant. Nevertheless, some adaptation measures are carried out by single households and local communities. When households experience weather related damages - of a kind that are expected to occur more frequently and with greater force as a result of climate changes - they take action to repair damages and prevent similar damages in the future; at least the kind of action that is easily carried out such as moving valuable goods from the basement or felling a tree. Such measures are, however, not necessarily understood in a context of climate change adaptation; they are rather specific reactions to acute problems. To the extent that a more thorough precautionary adaptation effort is required, also by private citizens, it will have to be performed in

  19. Adaptation of an HIV behavioural disinhibition risk reduction ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Adaptation of an HIV behavioural disinhibition risk reduction intervention for ... disinhibition risk reduction interventions for recently circumcised men for use in clinic ... medicine HIV prevention technologies into the male circumcision contexts.

  20. Cancer risk and oxidative DNA damage in man

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Loft, S; Poulsen, H E

    1996-01-01

    with a mechanistically based increased risk of cancer, including Fanconi anemia, chronic hepatitis, cystic fibrosis, and various autoimmune diseases, the biomarker studies indicate an increased rate of oxidative DNA damage or in some instances deficient repair. Human studies support the experimentally based notion...

  1. People with Increased Risk of Eye Damage from UV Light

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... With Increased Risk of Eye Damage from UV Light Leer en Español: Algunas Personas Están en Mayor Riesgo de Sufrir Daño Ocular por los Rayos UV Written By: Shirley Dang Apr. 30, 2014 Everyone of any age and any degree of skin pigmentation is susceptible to UV damage. Children are ...

  2. Adaptive coupling between damage mechanics and peridynamics: a route for objective simulation of material degradation up to complete failure

    KAUST Repository

    Han, Fei

    2016-05-17

    The objective (mesh-independent) simulation of evolving discontinuities, such as cracks, remains a challenge. Current techniques are highly complex or involve intractable computational costs, making simulations up to complete failure difficult. We propose a framework as a new route toward solving this problem that adaptively couples local-continuum damage mechanics with peridynamics to objectively simulate all the steps that lead to material failure: damage nucleation, crack formation and propagation. Local-continuum damage mechanics successfully describes the degradation related to dispersed microdefects before the formation of a macrocrack. However, when damage localizes, it suffers spurious mesh dependency, making the simulation of macrocracks challenging. On the other hand, the peridynamic theory is promising for the simulation of fractures, as it naturally allows discontinuities in the displacement field. Here, we present a hybrid local-continuum damage/peridynamic model. Local-continuum damage mechanics is used to describe “volume” damage before localization. Once localization is detected at a point, the remaining part of the energy is dissipated through an adaptive peridynamic model capable of the transition to a “surface” degradation, typically a crack. We believe that this framework, which actually mimics the real physical process of crack formation, is the first bridge between continuum damage theories and peridynamics. Two-dimensional numerical examples are used to illustrate that an objective simulation of material failure can be achieved by this method.

  3. Adaptive coupling between damage mechanics and peridynamics: a route for objective simulation of material degradation up to complete failure

    KAUST Repository

    Han, Fei; Lubineau, Gilles; Azdoud, Yan

    2016-01-01

    The objective (mesh-independent) simulation of evolving discontinuities, such as cracks, remains a challenge. Current techniques are highly complex or involve intractable computational costs, making simulations up to complete failure difficult. We propose a framework as a new route toward solving this problem that adaptively couples local-continuum damage mechanics with peridynamics to objectively simulate all the steps that lead to material failure: damage nucleation, crack formation and propagation. Local-continuum damage mechanics successfully describes the degradation related to dispersed microdefects before the formation of a macrocrack. However, when damage localizes, it suffers spurious mesh dependency, making the simulation of macrocracks challenging. On the other hand, the peridynamic theory is promising for the simulation of fractures, as it naturally allows discontinuities in the displacement field. Here, we present a hybrid local-continuum damage/peridynamic model. Local-continuum damage mechanics is used to describe “volume” damage before localization. Once localization is detected at a point, the remaining part of the energy is dissipated through an adaptive peridynamic model capable of the transition to a “surface” degradation, typically a crack. We believe that this framework, which actually mimics the real physical process of crack formation, is the first bridge between continuum damage theories and peridynamics. Two-dimensional numerical examples are used to illustrate that an objective simulation of material failure can be achieved by this method.

  4. Societal transformation and adaptation necessary to manage dynamics in flood hazard and risk mitigation (TRANS-ADAPT)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuchs, Sven; Thaler, Thomas; Bonnefond, Mathieu; Clarke, Darren; Driessen, Peter; Hegger, Dries; Gatien-Tournat, Amandine; Gralepois, Mathilde; Fournier, Marie; Mees, Heleen; Murphy, Conor; Servain-Courant, Sylvie

    2015-04-01

    Facing the challenges of climate change, this project aims to analyse and to evaluate the multiple use of flood alleviation schemes with respect to social transformation in communities exposed to flood hazards in Europe. The overall goals are: (1) the identification of indicators and parameters necessary for strategies to increase societal resilience, (2) an analysis of the institutional settings needed for societal transformation, and (3) perspectives of changing divisions of responsibilities between public and private actors necessary to arrive at more resilient societies. This proposal assesses societal transformations from the perspective of changing divisions of responsibilities between public and private actors necessary to arrive at more resilient societies. Yet each risk mitigation measure is built on a narrative of exchanges and relations between people and therefore may condition the outputs. As such, governance is done by people interacting and defining risk mitigation measures as well as climate change adaptation are therefore simultaneously both outcomes of, and productive to, public and private responsibilities. Building off current knowledge this project will focus on different dimensions of adaptation and mitigation strategies based on social, economic and institutional incentives and settings, centring on the linkages between these different dimensions and complementing existing flood risk governance arrangements. The policy dimension of adaptation, predominantly decisions on the societal admissible level of vulnerability and risk, will be evaluated by a human-environment interaction approach using multiple methods and the assessment of social capacities of stakeholders across scales. As such, the challenges of adaptation to flood risk will be tackled by converting scientific frameworks into practical assessment and policy advice. In addressing the relationship between these dimensions of adaptation on different temporal and spatial scales, this

  5. Incentivising flood risk adaptation through risk based insurance premiums : Trade-offs between affordability and risk reduction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hudson, Paul F.; Botzen, W.J.W.; Feyen, L.; Aerts, Jeroen C.J.H.

    2016-01-01

    The financial incentives offered by the risk-based pricing of insurance can stimulate policyholder adaptation to flood risk while potentially conflicting with affordability. We examine the trade-off between risk reduction and affordability in a model of public-private flood insurance in France and

  6. Bisecting real and fake body parts: effects of prism adaptation after right brain damage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nadia eBolognini

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The representation of body parts holds a special status in the brain, due to their prototypical shape and the contribution of multisensory (visual and somatosensory-proprioceptive information. In a previous study (Sposito et al., 2010, we showed that patients with left unilateral spatial neglect exhibit a rightward bias in setting the mid-point of their left forearm, which becomes larger when bisecting a cylindrical object comparable in size. This body part advantage, found also in control participants, suggests partly different processes for computing the extent of body parts and objects. In this study we tested 16 right-brain-damaged patients, and 10 unimpaired participants, on a manual bisection task of their own (real left forearm, or a size-matched fake forearm. We then explored the effects of adaptation to rightward displacing prism exposure, which brings about leftward aftereffects. We found that all participants showed prism adaptation and aftereffects, with right-brain-damaged patients exhibiting a reduction of the rightward bias for both real and fake forearm, with no overall differences between them. Second, correlation analyses highlighted the role of visual and proprioceptive information for the metrics of body parts. Third, single-patient analyses showed dissociations between real and fake forearm bisections, and the effects of prism adaptation, as well as a more frequent impairment with fake body parts. In sum, the rightward bias shown by right-brain-damaged patients in bisecting body parts is reduced by prism exposure, as other components of the neglect syndrome; discrete spatial representations for real and fake body parts, for which visual and proprioceptive codes play different roles, are likely to exist. Multisensory information seems to render self bodily segments more resistant to the disruption brought about by right-hemisphere injury.

  7. Adaptive pathways and coupled infrastructure: seven centuries of adaptation to water risk and the production of vulnerability in Mexico City

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beth Tellman

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Infrastructure development is central to the processes that abate and produce vulnerabilities in cities. Urban actors, especially those with power and authority, perceive and interpret vulnerability and decide when and how to adapt. When city managers use infrastructure to reduce urban risk in the complex, interconnected city system, new fragilities are introduced because of inherent system feedbacks. We trace the interactions between system dynamics and decision-making processes over 700 years of Mexico City's adaptations to water risks, focusing on the decision cycles of public infrastructure providers (in this case, government authorities. We bring together two lenses in examining this history: robustness-vulnerability trade-offs to explain the evolution of systemic risk dynamics mediated by feedback control, and adaptation pathways to focus on the evolution of decision cycles that motivate significant infrastructure investments. Drawing from historical accounts, archeological evidence, and original research on water, engineering, and cultural history, we examine adaptation pathways of humans settlement, water supply, and flood risk. Mexico City's history reveals insights that expand the theory of coupled infrastructure and lessons salient to contemporary urban risk management: (1 adapting by spatially externalizing risks can backfire: as cities expand, such risks become endogenous; (2 over time, adaptation pathways initiated to address specific risks may begin to intersect, creating complex trade-offs in risk management; and (3 city authorities are agents of risk production: even in the face of new exogenous risks (climate change, acknowledging and managing risks produced endogenously may prove more adaptive. History demonstrates that the very best solutions today may present critical challenges for tomorrow, and that collectively people have far more agency in and influence over the complex systems we live in than is often acknowledged.

  8. Preparing for Local Adaptation: Understanding Flood Risk Perceptions in Pittsburgh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klima, K.; Wong-Parodi, G.

    2015-12-01

    The City of Pittsburgh experiences numerous floods every year. Aging and insufficient infrastructure contribute to flash floods and to over 20 billion gallons of combined sewer overflows annually, contaminating Pittsburgh's streets, basements, and waterways. Climate change is expected to further exacerbate this problem by causing more intense and more frequent extreme precipitation events in Western Pennsylvania. For a stormwater adaptation plan to be implemented effectively, the City will need informed public support. One way to achieve public understanding and support is through effective communication of the risks, benefits, and uncertainties of local flooding hazards and adaptation methods. In order to develop these communications effectively, the city and its partners will need to know what knowledge and attitudes the residents of Pittsburgh already hold about flood risks. Here we seek to (1) identify Pittsburgh residents' knowledge level, risk perception and attitudes towards flooding and storm water management, and (2) pre-test communications meant to inform and empower Pittsburghers about flood risks and adaptation strategies. We conduct a city-wide survey of 10,000 Pittsburgh renters and homeowners from four life situations: high risk, above poverty; high-risk, below poverty; low risk, above poverty; and low-risk, below poverty. Mixed media recruitment strategies (online and paper-based solicitations guided/organized by community organizations) assist in reaching all subpopulations. Preliminary results suggest participants know what stormwater runoff is, but have a weak understanding of how stormwater interacts with natural and built systems. Furthermore, although participants have a good understanding of the difference between green and gray infrastructure, this does not translate into a change in their willingness to pay for green infrastructure adaptation. This suggests additional communications about flood risks and adaptation strategies.

  9. RISK, VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE: AN INTERDISCIPLINARY APPROACH

    OpenAIRE

    Iwama,Allan Yu; Batistella,Mateus; Ferreira,Lúcia da Costa; Alves,Diogenes Salas; Ferreira,Leila da Costa

    2016-01-01

    Abstract This study addresses risk, vulnerability, and their implications for the adaptation of communities to the problems they face in the everyday life and to those derived from climate change. Based on the literature about risk, vulnerability and adaptation to disasters and on a case study conducted in the Northern coast of São Paulo - Brazil, we summarize the converging themes in the analysis of vulnerability and adaptation to climate change, which are divided in three components: (i) in...

  10. Estimation of embrittlement damage risk at neutron embrittled vessel constructions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Staevski, K.; Madzharov, D.; Detistov, P.; Petrova, T.

    1998-01-01

    In this work a methodology based on Damage mechanics criteria is proposed. This methodology serves for probability assessment of the brittle damage risk for the neutron embrittled vessel elements. The developed methodology is realised in RISK code and has been verified on the base of tough reliability of the pressure vessel, 'Kozloduy' NPP Unit 2. This investigation has been carried out at the given parameters of the possible defects on the vessel's weld 4 taking into account requirements of the western and Russian standards. The obtained values for ductile to brittle transition temperatures, defining the equipment life-time in the presence of maximal defect, are in good consistence with the experimentally determined ones. The analyses of results show that the pressure vessel of 'Kozloduy' NPP Unit 2 has got a high level of reliability from brittle damage risk point of view and that the western standards give more conservative evaluation. On the bases of the results a conclusion is made that the developed methodology enables analysing the influence of possible defects in the neutron embrittled elements on their to reliability and their remained life-time

  11. Using damage data to estimate the risk from summer convective precipitation extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schroeer, Katharina; Tye, Mari

    2017-04-01

    This study explores the potential added value from including loss and damage data to understand the risks from high-intensity short-duration convective precipitation events. Projected increases in these events are expected even in regions that are likely to become more arid. Such high intensity precipitation events can trigger hazardous flash floods, debris flows, and landslides that put people and local assets at risk. However, the assessment of local scale precipitation extremes is hampered by its high spatial and temporal variability. In addition to this, not only are extreme events rare, but such small-scale events are likely to be underreported where they do not coincide with the observation network. Reports of private loss and damage on a local administrative unit scale (LAU 2 level) are used to explore the relationship between observed rainfall events and damages reportedly related to hydro-meteorological processes. With 480 Austrian municipalities located within our south-eastern Alpine study region, the damage data are available on a much smaller scale than the available rainfall data. Precipitation is recorded daily at 185 gauges and 52% of these stations additionally deliver sub-hourly rainfall information. To obtain physically plausible information, damage and rainfall data are grouped and analyzed on a catchment scale. The data indicate that rainfall intensities are higher on days that coincide with a damage claim than on days for which no damage was reported. However, approximately one third of the damages related to hydro-meteorological hazards were claimed on days for which no rainfall was recorded at any gauge in the respective catchment. Our goal is to assess whether these events indicate potential extreme events missing in the observations. Damage always is a consequence of an asset being exposed and susceptible to a hazardous process, and naturally, many factors influence whether an extreme rainfall event causes damage. We set up a statistical

  12. Using risk maps to link land value damage and risk as basis of flexible risk management for brownfield redevelopment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, I-chun; Ma, Hwong-wen

    2013-02-01

    Brownfield redevelopment involves numerous uncertain financial risks associated with market demand and land value. To reduce the uncertainty of the specific impact of land value and social costs, this study develops small-scale risk maps to determine the relationship between population risk (PR) and damaged land value (DLV) to facilitate flexible land reutilisation plans. This study used the spatial variability of exposure parameters in each village to develop the contaminated site-specific risk maps. In view of the combination of risk and cost, risk level that most affected land use was mainly 1.00×10(-6) to 1.00×10(-5) in this study area. Village 2 showed the potential for cost-effective conversion with contaminated land development. If the risk of remediation target was set at 5.00×10(-6), the DLV could be reduced by NT$15,005 million for the land developer. The land developer will consider the net benefit by quantifying the trade-off between the changes of land value and the cost of human health. In this study, small-scale risk maps can illuminate the economic incentive potential for contaminated site redevelopment through the adjustment of land value damage and human health risk. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Sun damage in ultraviolet photographs correlates with phenotypic melanoma risk factors in 12-year-old children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gamble, Ryan G; Asdigian, Nancy L; Aalborg, Jenny; Gonzalez, Victoria; Box, Neil F; Huff, Laura S; Barón, Anna E; Morelli, Joseph G; Mokrohisky, Stefan T; Crane, Lori A; Dellavalle, Robert P

    2012-10-01

    Ultraviolet (UV) photography has been used to motivate sun safety in behavioral interventions. The relationship between sun damage shown in UV photographs and melanoma risk has not been systematically investigated. To examine the relationship between severity of sun damage in UV photographs and phenotypic melanoma risk factors in children. UV, standard visible and cross-polarized photographs were recorded for 585 children. Computer software quantified sun damage. Full-body nevus counts, skin color by colorimetry, facial freckling, hair and eye color were collected in skin examinations. Demographic data were collected in telephone interviews of parents. Among 12-year-old children, sun damage shown in UV photographs correlated with phenotypic melanoma risk factors. Sun damage was greatest for children who were non-Hispanic white and those who had red hair, blue eyes, increased facial freckling, light skin and greater number of nevi (all P values photographs. Freckling was the strongest predictor of sun damage in visible and UV photographs. All other phenotypic melanoma risk factors were also predictors for the UV photographs. Differences in software algorithms used to score the photographs could produce different results. UV photographs portray more sun damage in children with higher risk for melanoma based on phenotype. Therefore sun protection interventions targeting those with greater sun damage on UV photographs will target those at higher melanoma risk. This study establishes reference ranges dermatologists can use to assess sun damage in their pediatric patients. Copyright © 2011 American Academy of Dermatology, Inc. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. A method for assessing frost damage risk in sweet cherry orchards of South Patagonia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cittadini, E.D.; Ridder, de N.; Peri, P.L.; Keulen, van H.

    2006-01-01

    Quantification of frost damage risk is important in planning the development of new orchard areas and for decision-making on design and installation of frost control systems. The objective of this study was to develop a comprehensive method to quantify frost damage risk in different sweet cherry

  15. Probabilistic flood damage modelling at the meso-scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kreibich, Heidi; Botto, Anna; Schröter, Kai; Merz, Bruno

    2014-05-01

    Decisions on flood risk management and adaptation are usually based on risk analyses. Such analyses are associated with significant uncertainty, even more if changes in risk due to global change are expected. Although uncertainty analysis and probabilistic approaches have received increased attention during the last years, they are still not standard practice for flood risk assessments. Most damage models have in common that complex damaging processes are described by simple, deterministic approaches like stage-damage functions. Novel probabilistic, multi-variate flood damage models have been developed and validated on the micro-scale using a data-mining approach, namely bagging decision trees (Merz et al. 2013). In this presentation we show how the model BT-FLEMO (Bagging decision Tree based Flood Loss Estimation MOdel) can be applied on the meso-scale, namely on the basis of ATKIS land-use units. The model is applied in 19 municipalities which were affected during the 2002 flood by the River Mulde in Saxony, Germany. The application of BT-FLEMO provides a probability distribution of estimated damage to residential buildings per municipality. Validation is undertaken on the one hand via a comparison with eight other damage models including stage-damage functions as well as multi-variate models. On the other hand the results are compared with official damage data provided by the Saxon Relief Bank (SAB). The results show, that uncertainties of damage estimation remain high. Thus, the significant advantage of this probabilistic flood loss estimation model BT-FLEMO is that it inherently provides quantitative information about the uncertainty of the prediction. Reference: Merz, B.; Kreibich, H.; Lall, U. (2013): Multi-variate flood damage assessment: a tree-based data-mining approach. NHESS, 13(1), 53-64.

  16. Disruptions in adaptation of sudden-onset and slow-onset risks: insights from a local case in the Andes of Peru for global policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huggel, Christian; Carey, Mark; Frey, Holger; Jurt, Christine; Mechler, Reinhard; Motschmann, Alina; Vicuña, Luis

    2017-04-01

    Climatic changes involve emergence and changes of both sudden-onset and slow-onset risks. In the field of disaster risk reduction a solid range of strategies and measures has been developed to address sudden-onset risks such as floods, mass movements or storms. Comparably less experience is available for management of slow-onset risks. While, for instance, drought prone regions do have important knowledge how to cope with such conditions in other regions where climatic changes have induced new challenges and risks there is limited experience about how to adapt to slow-onset processes and risks. Examples are impacts of sea level rise in coastal regions or glacier shrinkage in mountain regions. The lack of understanding of how to address impacts from slow-onset processes has recently also been highlighted by the Executive Committee of the Warsaw International Mechanism on Loss and Damage (WIM) acting under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). In climate change science, practice and policy it is often assumed that risk management and climate change adaptation would see a seamless continuum when addressing both sudden-onset and slow-onset risks. Here we draw on recent experiences from the Andes of Peru showing that management of, and adaptation to combined sudden-onset and slow-onset impacts of climate change may involve serious social disruption. Carhuaz, a city in the Cordillera Blanca of Peru with a number of local communities pertaining to it, is affected by multiple effects of climate change and glacier shrinkage. After a flood event from glacier lake 513 a flood early warning system has been developed and installed. Multiple use and demand of glacier melt water makes water resource management a challenge and conflicts arise especially during the dry season when water is scarce. The drought at the end of 2016 over much of the tropical Andes has resulted in a situation where local communities started to vigorously and violently turn

  17. Soft Thermal Sensor with Mechanical Adaptability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Hui; Qi, Dianpeng; Liu, Zhiyuan; Chandran, Bevita K; Wang, Ting; Yu, Jiancan; Chen, Xiaodong

    2016-11-01

    A soft thermal sensor with mechanical adaptability is fabricated by the combination of single-wall carbon nanotubes with carboxyl groups and self-healing polymers. This study demonstrates that this soft sensor has excellent thermal response and mechanical adaptability. It shows tremendous promise for improving the service life of soft artificial-intelligence robots and protecting thermally sensitive electronics from the risk of damage by high temperature. © 2016 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  18. High EDSS can predict risk for upper urinary tract damage in patients with multiple sclerosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ineichen, Benjamin V; Schneider, Marc P; Hlavica, Martin; Hagenbuch, Niels; Linnebank, Michael; Kessler, Thomas M

    2018-04-01

    Neurogenic lower urinary tract dysfunction (NLUTD) is very common in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS), and it might jeopardize renal function and thereby increase mortality. Although there are well-known urodynamic risk factors for upper urinary tract damage, no clinical prediction parameters are available. We aimed to assess clinical parameters potentially predicting urodynamic risk factors for upper urinary tract damage. A consecutive series of 141 patients with MS referred from neurologists for primary neuro-urological work-up including urodynamics were prospectively evaluated. Clinical parameters taken into account were age, sex, duration, and clinical course of MS and Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS). Multivariate modeling revealed EDSS as a clinical parameter significantly associated with urodynamic risk factors for upper urinary tract damage (odds ratio = 1.34, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.06-1.71, p = 0.02). Using receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves, an EDSS of 5.0 as cutoff showed a sensitivity of 86%-87% and a specificity of 52% for at least one urodynamic risk factor for upper urinary tract damage. High EDSS is significantly associated with urodynamic risk factors for upper urinary tract damage and allows a risk-dependent stratification in daily neurological clinical practice to identify MS patients requiring further neuro-urological assessment and treatment.

  19. Adaptive risk management using new risk perspectives – an example from the oil and gas industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bjerga, Torbjørn; Aven, Terje

    2015-01-01

    This article discusses management of risk in the case of large uncertainties and the use of adaptive risk management in such situations. This type of management is based on the acknowledgement that one best decision cannot be made, but rather, a set of alternatives should be dynamically tracked to gain information and knowledge about the effects of different courses of action. In the article, we study a case from the oil and gas industry, the main aim being to gain insights into how adaptive risk management could be implemented when giving due attention to the knowledge and uncertainty aspects of risk. In recent years, several authors have argued for the adoption of some new types of risk perspectives, which highlight uncertainties and knowledge in the way risk is understood and measured — this article uses these perspectives as the basis for the discussion. - Highlights: • Demonstrates a new perspective on adaptive risk management. • The perspective highlights uncertainty and knowledge, not only probability. • Illustrates the perspective on an oil and gas case, which is characterized by deep uncertainties

  20. Climate Change and Risk Management: Challenges for Insurance, Adaptation, and Loss Estimation

    OpenAIRE

    Kousky, Carolyn; Cooke, Roger

    2009-01-01

    Adapting to climate change will not only require responding to the physical effects of global warming, but will also require adapting the way we conceptualize, measure, and manage risks. Climate change is creating new risks, altering the risks we already face, and also, importantly, impacting the interdependencies between these risks. In this paper we focus on three particular phenomena of climate related risks that will require a change in our thinking about risk management: global micro-cor...

  1. A robust impact assessment that informs actionable climate change adaptation: future sunburn browning risk in apple.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webb, Leanne; Darbyshire, Rebecca; Erwin, Tim; Goodwin, Ian

    2017-05-01

    Climate change impact assessments are predominantly undertaken for the purpose of informing future adaptation decisions. Often, the complexity of the methodology hinders the actionable outcomes. The approach used here illustrates the importance of considering uncertainty in future climate projections, at the same time providing robust and simple to interpret information for decision-makers. By quantifying current and future exposure of Royal Gala apple to damaging temperature extremes across ten important pome fruit-growing locations in Australia, differences in impact to ripening fruit are highlighted, with, by the end of the twenty-first century, some locations maintaining no sunburn browning risk, while others potentially experiencing the risk for the majority of the January ripening period. Installation of over-tree netting can reduce the impact of sunburn browning. The benefits from employing this management option varied across the ten study locations. The two approaches explored to assist decision-makers assess this information (a) using sunburn browning risk analogues and (b) through identifying hypothetical sunburn browning risk thresholds, resulted in varying recommendations for introducing over-tree netting. These recommendations were location and future time period dependent with some sites showing no benefit for sunburn protection from nets even by the end of the twenty-first century and others already deriving benefits from employing this adaptation option. Potential best and worst cases of sunburn browning risk and its potential reduction through introduction of over-tree nets were explored. The range of results presented highlights the importance of addressing uncertainty in climate projections that result from different global climate models and possible future emission pathways.

  2. A robust impact assessment that informs actionable climate change adaptation: future sunburn browning risk in apple

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webb, Leanne; Darbyshire, Rebecca; Erwin, Tim; Goodwin, Ian

    2017-05-01

    Climate change impact assessments are predominantly undertaken for the purpose of informing future adaptation decisions. Often, the complexity of the methodology hinders the actionable outcomes. The approach used here illustrates the importance of considering uncertainty in future climate projections, at the same time providing robust and simple to interpret information for decision-makers. By quantifying current and future exposure of Royal Gala apple to damaging temperature extremes across ten important pome fruit-growing locations in Australia, differences in impact to ripening fruit are highlighted, with, by the end of the twenty-first century, some locations maintaining no sunburn browning risk, while others potentially experiencing the risk for the majority of the January ripening period. Installation of over-tree netting can reduce the impact of sunburn browning. The benefits from employing this management option varied across the ten study locations. The two approaches explored to assist decision-makers assess this information (a) using sunburn browning risk analogues and (b) through identifying hypothetical sunburn browning risk thresholds, resulted in varying recommendations for introducing over-tree netting. These recommendations were location and future time period dependent with some sites showing no benefit for sunburn protection from nets even by the end of the twenty-first century and others already deriving benefits from employing this adaptation option. Potential best and worst cases of sunburn browning risk and its potential reduction through introduction of over-tree nets were explored. The range of results presented highlights the importance of addressing uncertainty in climate projections that result from different global climate models and possible future emission pathways.

  3. Automatic characterization of loose parts impact damage risk parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Glass, S.W.; Phillips, J.M.

    1985-01-01

    Loose parts caught in the high-velocity flows of the reactor coolant fluid strike against nuclear steam supply system (NSSS) components and can cause significant damage. Loose parts monitor systems (LPMS) have been available for years to detect metal-to-metal impacts. Once detected, however, an assessment of the damage risk potential for leaving the part in the system versus shutting it down and removing the part must be made. The principal parameters used in the damage risk assessment are time delays between the first and subsequent sensor indications (used to assess the impact location) and a correlation between the waveform and the impact energy of the part (how hard the part impacted). These parameters are not well suited to simple automatic techniques. The task has historically been performed by loose parts diagnostic experts who base much of their evaluation on experience and subjective interpretation of impact data waveforms. Three of the principal goals in developing the Babcock and Wilcox (B and W) LPMS-III were (a) to develop an accurate automatic assessment for the time delays, (b) to develop an automatic estimate of the impact energy, and (c) to present the data in a meaningful manner to the operator

  4. Benchmarking Discount Rate in Natural Resource Damage Assessment with Risk Aversion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Desheng; Chen, Shuzhen

    2017-08-01

    Benchmarking a credible discount rate is of crucial importance in natural resource damage assessment (NRDA) and restoration evaluation. This article integrates a holistic framework of NRDA with prevailing low discount rate theory, and proposes a discount rate benchmarking decision support system based on service-specific risk aversion. The proposed approach has the flexibility of choosing appropriate discount rates for gauging long-term services, as opposed to decisions based simply on duration. It improves injury identification in NRDA since potential damages and side-effects to ecosystem services are revealed within the service-specific framework. A real embankment case study demonstrates valid implementation of the method. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  5. Assessing climate change risks to the natural environment to facilitate cross-sectoral adaptation policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Iain

    2018-06-13

    Climate change policy requires prioritization of adaptation actions across many diverse issues. The policy agenda for the natural environment includes not only biodiversity, soils and water, but also associated human benefits through agriculture, forestry, water resources, hazard alleviation, climate regulation and amenity value. To address this broad agenda, the use of comparative risk assessment is investigated with reference to statutory requirements of the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment. Risk prioritization was defined by current adaptation progress relative to risk magnitude and implementation lead times. Use of an ecosystem approach provided insights into risk interactions, but challenges remain in quantifying ecosystem services. For all risks, indirect effects and potential systemic risks were identified from land-use change, responding to both climate and socio-economic drivers, and causing increased competition for land and water resources. Adaptation strategies enhancing natural ecosystem resilience can buffer risks and sustain ecosystem services but require improved cross-sectoral coordination and recognition of dynamic change. To facilitate this, risk assessments need to be reflexive and explicitly assess decision outcomes contingent on their riskiness and adaptability, including required levels of human intervention, influence of uncertainty and ethical dimensions. More national-scale information is also required on adaptation occurring in practice and its efficacy in moderating risks.This article is part of the theme issue 'Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'. © 2018 The Author(s).

  6. Assessing climate change risks to the natural environment to facilitate cross-sectoral adaptation policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Iain

    2018-06-01

    Climate change policy requires prioritization of adaptation actions across many diverse issues. The policy agenda for the natural environment includes not only biodiversity, soils and water, but also associated human benefits through agriculture, forestry, water resources, hazard alleviation, climate regulation and amenity value. To address this broad agenda, the use of comparative risk assessment is investigated with reference to statutory requirements of the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment. Risk prioritization was defined by current adaptation progress relative to risk magnitude and implementation lead times. Use of an ecosystem approach provided insights into risk interactions, but challenges remain in quantifying ecosystem services. For all risks, indirect effects and potential systemic risks were identified from land-use change, responding to both climate and socio-economic drivers, and causing increased competition for land and water resources. Adaptation strategies enhancing natural ecosystem resilience can buffer risks and sustain ecosystem services but require improved cross-sectoral coordination and recognition of dynamic change. To facilitate this, risk assessments need to be reflexive and explicitly assess decision outcomes contingent on their riskiness and adaptability, including required levels of human intervention, influence of uncertainty and ethical dimensions. More national-scale information is also required on adaptation occurring in practice and its efficacy in moderating risks. This article is part of the theme issue `Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

  7. Comparing Methods of Calculating Expected Annual Damage in Urban Pluvial Flood Risk Assessments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skovgård Olsen, Anders; Zhou, Qianqian; Linde, Jens Jørgen

    2015-01-01

    Estimating the expected annual damage (EAD) due to flooding in an urban area is of great interest for urban water managers and other stakeholders. It is a strong indicator for a given area showing how vulnerable it is to flood risk and how much can be gained by implementing e.g., climate change...... adaptation measures. This study identifies and compares three different methods for estimating the EAD based on unit costs of flooding of urban assets. One of these methods was used in previous studies and calculates the EAD based on a few extreme events by assuming a log-linear relationship between cost...... of an event and the corresponding return period. This method is compared to methods that are either more complicated or require more calculations. The choice of method by which the EAD is calculated appears to be of minor importance. At all three case study areas it seems more important that there is a shift...

  8. Land Use Adaptation to Climate Change: Economic Damages from Land-Falling Hurricanes in the Atlantic and Gulf States of the USA, 1900–2005

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Asim Zia

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Global climate change, especially the phenomena of global warming, is expected to increase the intensity of land-falling hurricanes. Societal adaptation is needed to reduce vulnerability from increasingly intense hurricanes. This study quantifies the adaptation effects of potentially policy driven caps on housing densities and agricultural cover in coastal (and adjacent inland areas vulnerable to hurricane damages in the Atlantic and Gulf Coastal regions of the U.S. Time series regressions, especially Prais-Winston and Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA models, are estimated to forecast the economic impacts of hurricanes of varying intensity, given that various patterns of land use emerge in the Atlantic and Gulf coastal states of the U.S. The Prais-Winston and ARMA models use observed time series data from 1900 to 2005 for inflation adjusted hurricane damages and socio-economic and land-use data in the coastal or inland regions where hurricanes caused those damages. The results from this study provide evidence that increases in housing density and agricultural cover cause significant rise in the de-trended inflation-adjusted damages. Further, higher intensity and frequency of land-falling hurricanes also significantly increase the economic damages. The evidence from this study implies that a medium to long term land use adaptation in the form of capping housing density and agricultural cover in the coastal (and adjacent inland states can significantly reduce economic damages from intense hurricanes. Future studies must compare the benefits of such land use adaptation policies against the costs of development controls implied in housing density caps and agricultural land cover reductions.

  9. Development of the Damage Potential resulting from Avalanche Risks, Case Study Galtür (Tyrol, Austria)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keiler, M.

    2003-04-01

    Reports on catastrophes with high damage caused by natural hazards seem to have increased in number recently. A new trend in dealing with these natural processes leads to the integration of risk into natural hazards evaluations and approaches of integral risk management. The risk resulting from natural hazards can be derived from the combination of parameters of physical processes (intensity and recurrence probability) and damage potential (probability of presence and expected damage value). Natural hazard research focuses mainly on the examination, modelling and estimation of individual geomorphological processes as well as on future developments caused by climate change. Even though damage potential has been taken into account more frequently, quantifying statements are still missing. Due to the changes of the socio-economic structures in mountain regions (urban sprawl, population growth, increased mobility and tourism) these studies are mandatory. This study presents a conceptual method that records the damage potential (probability of physical presence, evaluation of buildings) and shows the development of the damage potential resulting from avalanches since 1950. The study area is the community of Galtür, Austria. 36 percent of the existing buildings are found in officially declared avalanche hazard zones. The majority of these buildings are either agricultural or accommodation facilities. Additionally, the effects of physical planning and/or technical measures on the spatial development of the potential damage are illustrated. The results serve to improve risk determination and point out an unnoticed increase of damage potential and risk in apparently safe settlement areas.

  10. Climate change beliefs, risk perceptions, and adaptation behavior among Midwestern U.S. crop farmers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amber Saylor Mase

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Global climate change presents unique challenges to the resilience of United States agriculture, and farmers and advisors must utilize effective adaptation strategies to be both economically and environmentally sustainable. This study addresses Midwestern U.S. crop farmers’ beliefs about climate change, perceived risks from weather and climate, and attitudes toward adaptation that influence their decisions to adopt adaptation strategies. Analyzing a 2012 survey of nearly 5000 corn farmers across 22 Midwestern U.S. Watersheds, we investigate the most common weather and climate risk management strategies, including purchasing additional crop insurance, implementing conservation practices, and adding new technology. U.S. farmers’ belief in anthropogenic climate change, perceptions of changing weather patterns, climate risks to their farm and attitudes toward adapting are analyzed. Farmers’ perceptions of risk to their own farm, attitudes toward innovation and adaptation attitudes were the most important determinants of adaptation. This study highlights the critical role of risk perceptions in adaptation attitudes as well as behaviors among agriculturalists. Finally, we discuss how these findings could be applied to increase uptake of adaptation strategies and thus resilience of U.S. agriculture to a changing climate.

  11. Assessment of anosognosia in persons with frontal lobe damage: clinical utility of the Mayo-Portland Adaptability Inventory (MPAI).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murrey, G J; Hale, F M; Williams, J D

    2005-08-10

    To determine if the Mayo-Portland Adaptability Inventory (MPAI) demonstrates clinical utility in differentiating between persons with severe TBI and frontal lobe damage/anosognosia and persons with mild TBI and no frontal lobe damage. Forty-three persons with TBI and documented frontal lobe damage (mean age = 34; mean time since injury = 5.2 years) and 69 persons with mild TBI and no frontal lobe damage (mean age = 34.3; mean time since injury = 4.8 4.8 years). MPAI. Total inventory and select sub-category difference scores were significantly greater in the frontal lobe group than in the non-frontal lobe group. However, as expected, there was no significant difference between the two groups on the mobility sub-category difference scores. The MPAI appears to be potentially clinically useful in assessing for frontal lobe damage and associated anosognosia in patients with TBI.

  12. Studies on adaptive responses in Chinese hamster cells

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Michelin, S.C.; Perez, M.R. Del; Dubner, D.; Gisone, P.A.

    1997-01-01

    For many years the possibility has been considered of low doses of radiation inducing adaptive responses in cells and organisms against the mutagenic effects of radiation. Currently, a number of experimental data appraise the existence of an adaptive response that is characterized by a decrease of radiation induced genetic damages. The understanding of the molecular mechanism involved in this phenomenon permits to estimate the effects and risks of low dose exposure. In this work, preliminary results of studies on the induction of adaptive response in cells subjected to different doses of ionizing radiation are presented

  13. The role of conservation programs in drought risk adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steven Wallander; Marcel Aillery; Daniel Hellerstein; Michael Hand

    2013-01-01

    This report evaluates the extent to which farms facing higher levels of drought risk are more likely to participate in conservation programs, and fi nds a strong link between drought risk and program participation. Prior research has shown that climate-related risk exposure infl uences production decisions such as crop choice; our research shows that adaptation also...

  14. The possible role of chromatin conformation changes in adaptive responses to ionizing radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ekhtiar, A.; Ammer, A.; Jbawi, A.; Othman, A.

    2012-05-01

    Organisms are affected by different DNA damaging agents naturally present in the environment or released as a result of human activity. Many defense mechanisms have evolved in organisms to minimize genotoxic damage. One of them is induced radioresistance or adaptive response. The adaptive response could be considered as a nonspecific phenomenon in which exposure to minimal stress could result in increased resistance to higher levels of the same or to other types of stress some hours later. A better understanding of the molecular mechanism underlying the adaptive response may lead to an improvement of cancer treatment, risk assessment and risk management strategies, radiation protection. The aim of current study was to study the possible role of chromatin conformation changes induced by ionizing radiation on the adaptive responses in human lymphocyte. For this aim the chromatin conformation have been studied in human lymphocytes from three non-smoking and three smoking healthy volunteers prior, and after espouser to gamma radiation (adaptive dose 0.1 Gy, challenge dose 1.5 Gy and adaptive + dose challenge). Chromosomal aberrations and micronucleus have been used as end point to study radio cytotoxicity and adaptive response. Our results indicated individual differences in radio adaptive response and the level of this response was dependent of chromatin de condensation induced by a adaptive small dose.The results showed that different dose of gamma rays induce a chromatin de condensation in human lymphocyte. The maximum chromatin relaxation were record when lymphocyte exposed to adaptive dose (0.1 Gy.). Results also showed that Adaptive dose have affected on the induction of challenge dose (1.5 Gy) of chromosome aberration and micronucleus . The comparison of results of chromatin de condensation induction as measured by flow cytometry and cytogenetic damages measured by chromosomal aberrations or micronucleus, was showed a proportionality of adaptive response with

  15. Preparing for local adaptation: Understanding flood risk perceptions in Pittsburgh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong-Parodi, G.; Klima, K.

    2016-12-01

    In cities such as Pittsburgh, aging and insufficient infrastructure contributes to flashfloods and numerous combined sewer overflows annually, contaminating streets, basements and waterways. Climate change is expected to further exacerbate this problem by causing more intense and more frequent extreme events in Western Pennsylvania. For a storm water adaptation plan to be implemented successfully, the City of Pittsburgh will need informed public support. One way to achieve public understanding and support is through effective communication of the risks, benefits, and uncertainties of local flooding hazards and adaptation methods. In order to develop risk communications effectively, the City and its partners will need to know what knowledge and attitudes the residents of Pittsburgh already hold about flood risks. To that end we surveyed 1,376 Pittsburgh residents on a variety of flood risk topics through an online or paper survey in Fall 2015. On balance, residents were relatively knowledgeable about storm water and see the City's current infrastructure as being inadequate to meet future risk. Moreover, they see the risk of runoff events as increasing and especially among those who live in hazardous flood areas. Residents expressed interest in having a dedicated fund to deal with runoff events. Among those queried about their willingness-to-pay, those asked to pay $15 were most interested in a dedicated fund and for green infrastructure (as opposed to gray infrastructure) in particular. Finally, while most residents favored green infrastructure in terms of its attractiveness and perceived affects on mitigating climate change many did not see it as effective at addressing flooding as gray infrastructure. We found people understand the risk and are open to doing something about it. However, more guidance and information on appropriate ways to adapt locally in terms that make sense to residents could enhance informed support for adaptation measures.

  16. A systems framework for national assessment of climate risks to infrastructure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dawson, Richard J.; Thompson, David; Johns, Daniel; Wood, Ruth; Darch, Geoff; Chapman, Lee; Hughes, Paul N.; Watson, Geoff V. R.; Paulson, Kevin; Bell, Sarah; Gosling, Simon N.; Powrie, William; Hall, Jim W.

    2018-06-01

    Extreme weather causes substantial adverse socio-economic impacts by damaging and disrupting the infrastructure services that underpin modern society. Globally, $2.5tn a year is spent on infrastructure which is typically designed to last decades, over which period projected changes in the climate will modify infrastructure performance. A systems approach has been developed to assess risks across all infrastructure sectors to guide national policy making and adaptation investment. The method analyses diverse evidence of climate risks and adaptation actions, to assess the urgency and extent of adaptation required. Application to the UK shows that despite recent adaptation efforts, risks to infrastructure outweigh opportunities. Flooding is the greatest risk to all infrastructure sectors: even if the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 2°C is achieved, the number of users reliant on electricity infrastructure at risk of flooding would double, while a 4°C rise could triple UK flood damage. Other risks are significant, for example 5% and 20% of river catchments would be unable to meet water demand with 2°C and 4°C global warming respectively. Increased interdependence between infrastructure systems, especially from energy and information and communication technology (ICT), are amplifying risks, but adaptation action is limited by lack of clear responsibilities. A programme to build national capability is urgently required to improve infrastructure risk assessment. This article is part of the theme issue `Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

  17. A systems framework for national assessment of climate risks to infrastructure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, David; Johns, Daniel; Darch, Geoff; Paulson, Kevin

    2018-01-01

    Extreme weather causes substantial adverse socio-economic impacts by damaging and disrupting the infrastructure services that underpin modern society. Globally, $2.5tn a year is spent on infrastructure which is typically designed to last decades, over which period projected changes in the climate will modify infrastructure performance. A systems approach has been developed to assess risks across all infrastructure sectors to guide national policy making and adaptation investment. The method analyses diverse evidence of climate risks and adaptation actions, to assess the urgency and extent of adaptation required. Application to the UK shows that despite recent adaptation efforts, risks to infrastructure outweigh opportunities. Flooding is the greatest risk to all infrastructure sectors: even if the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 2°C is achieved, the number of users reliant on electricity infrastructure at risk of flooding would double, while a 4°C rise could triple UK flood damage. Other risks are significant, for example 5% and 20% of river catchments would be unable to meet water demand with 2°C and 4°C global warming respectively. Increased interdependence between infrastructure systems, especially from energy and information and communication technology (ICT), are amplifying risks, but adaptation action is limited by lack of clear responsibilities. A programme to build national capability is urgently required to improve infrastructure risk assessment. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy’. PMID:29712793

  18. Assessment of flood risk in Tokyo metropolitan area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirano, J.; Dairaku, K.

    2013-12-01

    Flood is one of the most significant natural hazards in Japan. The Tokyo metropolitan area has been affected by several large flood disasters. Therefore, investigating potential flood risk in Tokyo metropolitan area is important for development of adaptation strategy for future climate change. We aim to develop a method for evaluating flood risk in Tokyo Metropolitan area by considering effect of historical land use and land cover change, socio-economic change, and climatic change. Ministry of land, infrastructure, transport and tourism in Japan published 'Statistics of flood', which contains data for flood causes, number of damaged houses, area of wetted surface, and total amount of damage for each flood at small municipal level. By using these flood data, we estimated damage by inundation inside a levee for each prefecture based on a statistical method. On the basis of estimated damage, we developed flood risk curves in the Tokyo metropolitan area, representing relationship between damage and exceedance probability of flood for the period 1976-2008 for each prefecture. Based on the flood risk curve, we attempted evaluate potential flood risk in the Tokyo metropolitan area and clarify the cause for regional difference of flood risk. By analyzing flood risk curves, we found out regional differences of flood risk. We identified high flood risk in Tokyo and Saitama prefecture. On the other hand, flood risk was relatively low in Ibaraki and Chiba prefecture. We found that these regional differences of flood risk can be attributed to spatial distribution of entire property value and ratio of damaged housing units in each prefecture.We also attempted to evaluate influence of climate change on potential flood risk by considering variation of precipitation amount and precipitation intensity in the Tokyo metropolitan area. Results shows that we can evaluate potential impact of precipitation change on flood risk with high accuracy by using our methodology. Acknowledgments

  19. Adaptation in Europe. Addressing risks and opportunities from climate change in the context of socio-economic developments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Isoard, S. [EEA (Denmark); Winograd, M. [Alterra (Netherlands)

    2013-04-15

    The 'Adaptation in Europe' report describes the policies and some of the measures taken at EU level and by European countries. So far half of the 32 EEA member countries have plans for adaptation, and some have started to take action, although all countries still have a lot of work to do. While global mitigation efforts should continue to aim to limit global temperature increases to 2 deg. C, the report states that it is necessary to prepare for a greater range of temperature increases and other climate changes. This is needed to properly account for the many uncertainties in climatic and socio-economic projections. The report recommends a combination of different measures - 'grey' measures such as technological and engineering projects, 'green' ecosystem-based approaches using nature, and so-called 'soft' measures such as policies to change governance approaches. The most effective adaptation projects often combine two or more different approaches, the report says. For example, adaptation on France's Mediterranean coast uses an integrated approach considering climate change, tourism, transport and biodiversity. In urban areas green spaces and water bodies work together with building design to reduce heatwave risks. Barcelona has also started to adapt to water shortages with a new highly efficient desalination plant. This 'grey' project works in tandem with other 'soft' initiatives such as incentives to reduce water consumption, reducing the impacts from prolonged droughts. While the cost of adaptation may be high in some cases, the report emphasises the overall savings from some adaptation actions. One of the largest ecosystem-based adaptation projects is restoring the Danube river basin to its previously natural state. Although it will cost an estimated Euro 183 million, it should help prevent flooding such as the 2005 event which alone cost Euro 396 million in damages. Early warning systems to help predict forest fires, floods and droughts have been set up in

  20. Responding to bushfire risk: the need for transformative adaptation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O’Neill, Saffron J; Handmer, John

    2012-01-01

    The 2009 ‘Black Saturday’ bushfires led to 172 civilian deaths, and were proclaimed as one of Australia’s worst natural disasters. The Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission was set up in the wake of the fires to investigate the circumstances surrounding the death of each fatality. Here, results from an analysis undertaken for the Commission to examine the household preparedness policy ‘Prepare, Stay and Defend, or Leave Early’ (‘Stay or Go’), plus an examination of the Commission’s recommendations, are explored in the broader context of adaptation to bushfire. We find Victoria ill adapted to complex bushfire risk events like Black Saturday due to changing settlement patterns and the known vulnerabilities of populations living in fire prone areas, and increasingly in the future due to the influence of climate change extending fire seasons and their severity. We suggest that uncertainty needs to be better acknowledged and managed in fire risk situations, and that the responsibility for fire preparedness should be more justly distributed. We suggest that a transformation in adaptation is required to effectively manage complex bushfire risk events like Black Saturday, and provide four key ways in which transformation in bushfire preparedness could be achieved. (letter)

  1. Responding to bushfire risk: the need for transformative adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, Saffron J.; Handmer, John

    2012-03-01

    The 2009 ‘Black Saturday’ bushfires led to 172 civilian deaths, and were proclaimed as one of Australia’s worst natural disasters. The Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission was set up in the wake of the fires to investigate the circumstances surrounding the death of each fatality. Here, results from an analysis undertaken for the Commission to examine the household preparedness policy ‘Prepare, Stay and Defend, or Leave Early’ (‘Stay or Go’), plus an examination of the Commission’s recommendations, are explored in the broader context of adaptation to bushfire. We find Victoria ill adapted to complex bushfire risk events like Black Saturday due to changing settlement patterns and the known vulnerabilities of populations living in fire prone areas, and increasingly in the future due to the influence of climate change extending fire seasons and their severity. We suggest that uncertainty needs to be better acknowledged and managed in fire risk situations, and that the responsibility for fire preparedness should be more justly distributed. We suggest that a transformation in adaptation is required to effectively manage complex bushfire risk events like Black Saturday, and provide four key ways in which transformation in bushfire preparedness could be achieved.

  2. Psychosocial Adaptation and Depressive Manifestations in High-Risk Pregnant Women: Implications for Clinical Practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fiskin, Gamze; Kaydirak, Meltem Mecdi; Oskay, Umran Yesiltepe

    2017-02-01

    High-risk pregnancy research has focused primarily on psychological well-being. The aim is to determine psychosocial adaptation and depression levels of pregnant women who were admitted to hospital with diagnosis of high-risk pregnancy. This study was descriptive. Sampling was composed of 122 high-risk pregnant women who were hospitalized in the perinatology service of Istanbul University Medical School, Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology between January 1, 2014, and May 31, 2014, and met the study criteria. The Pregnant Introduction Form, Psychosocial Adjustment of Illness Scale-Self Report, and CES Depression Scale were used. Of high-risk pregnant women, 47% were found to have a poor level of psychosocial adaptation and 57% presented with depressive symptoms. There were statistically significant difference found between the levels of psychosocial adaptation and status of depressive manifestations. The difference between the average scores increased as the adaptation levels weaken and the pregnant women with a poor level of psychosocial adaptation showed more depressive manifestations. The results of this study indicate that, depending on the high-risk pregnancy status, pregnant women experience difficulty in adaptation to their current status and pregnant women with a poor level of psychosocial adaptation showed more depressive manifestations. Nurses should deliver care in high-risk pregnancies with the awareness of physiological needs as well the psychosocial needs of pregnant women, and information meetings should be held in order to increase the psychosocial support of their families and decrease their tendency toward depression. Nursing initiatives should be developed with further studies for the psychosocial adaptation of high-risk pregnancy and reduction of the depressive manifestations. © 2016 Sigma Theta Tau International.

  3. Uncertainty assessment of climate change adaptation using an economic pluvial flood risk framework

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhou, Qianqian; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

    2012-01-01

    It is anticipated that climate change is likely to lead to an increasing risk level of flooding in cities in northern Europe. One challenging question is how to best address the increasing flood risk and assess the costs and benefits of adapting to such changes. We established an integrated...... approach for identification and assessment of climate change adaptation options by incorporating climate change impacts, flood inundation modelling, economic tool and risk assessment and management. The framework is further extended and adapted by embedding a Monte Carlo simulation to estimate the total...

  4. Hygro thermal simulation to predict the risk of frost damage in masonry : effects of climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Aarle, M.A.P.; Schellen, H.L.; van Schijndel, A.W.M.

    2015-01-01

    According to the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) climate change will result in an increase of air temperature and rainfall intensities for the Netherlands in winter in future. In this paper we investigate the effect of the risk of frost damage to masonry. The risk of frost damage

  5. Incentivising flood risk adaptation through ris based insurance premiums: trade-offs between affordability and risk reduction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hudson, P.G.M.B.; Botzen, W.J.W.; Feyen, L.; Aerts, J.C.J.H.

    2016-01-01

    The financial incentives offered by the risk-based pricing of insurance can stimulate policyholder adaptation to flood risk while potentially conflicting with affordability. We examine the trade-off between risk reduction and affordability in a model of public-private flood insurance in France and

  6. The assessment of damages due to climate change in a situation of uncertainty: the contribution of adaptation cost modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dumas, P.

    2006-01-01

    The aim of this research is to introduce new elements for the assessment of damages due to climate changes within the frame of compact models aiding the decision. Two types of methodologies are used: sequential optimisation stochastic models and simulation stochastic models using optimal assessment methods. The author first defines the damages, characterizes their different categories, and reviews the existing assessments. Notably, he makes the distinction between damages due to climate change and damages due to its rate. Then, he presents the different models used in this study, the numerical solutions, and gives a rough estimate of the importance of the considered phenomena. By introducing a new category of capital in an optimal growth model, he tries to establish a framework allowing the representation of adaptation and of its costs. He introduces inertia in macro-economical evolutions, climatic variability, detection of climate change and damages due to climate hazards

  7. Quantifying the effect of autonomous adaptation to global river flood projections: application to future flood risk assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinoshita, Youhei; Tanoue, Masahiro; Watanabe, Satoshi; Hirabayashi, Yukiko

    2018-01-01

    This study represents the first attempt to quantify the effects of autonomous adaptation on the projection of global flood hazards and to assess future flood risk by including this effect. A vulnerability scenario, which varies according to the autonomous adaptation effect for conventional disaster mitigation efforts, was developed based on historical vulnerability values derived from flood damage records and a river inundation simulation. Coupled with general circulation model outputs and future socioeconomic scenarios, potential future flood fatalities and economic loss were estimated. By including the effect of autonomous adaptation, our multimodel ensemble estimates projected a 2.0% decrease in potential flood fatalities and an 821% increase in potential economic losses by 2100 under the highest emission scenario together with a large population increase. Vulnerability changes reduced potential flood consequences by 64%-72% in terms of potential fatalities and 28%-42% in terms of potential economic losses by 2100. Although socioeconomic changes made the greatest contribution to the potential increased consequences of future floods, about a half of the increase of potential economic losses was mitigated by autonomous adaptation. There is a clear and positive relationship between the global temperature increase from the pre-industrial level and the estimated mean potential flood economic loss, while there is a negative relationship with potential fatalities due to the autonomous adaptation effect. A bootstrapping analysis suggests a significant increase in potential flood fatalities (+5.7%) without any adaptation if the temperature increases by 1.5 °C-2.0 °C, whereas the increase in potential economic loss (+0.9%) was not significant. Our method enables the effects of autonomous adaptation and additional adaptation efforts on climate-induced hazards to be distinguished, which would be essential for the accurate estimation of the cost of adaptation to

  8. Flood damage estimation of companies: A comparison of Stage-Damage-Functions and Random Forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sieg, Tobias; Kreibich, Heidi; Vogel, Kristin; Merz, Bruno

    2017-04-01

    The development of appropriate flood damage models plays an important role not only for the damage assessment after an event but also to develop adaptation and risk mitigation strategies. So called Stage-Damage-Functions (SDFs) are often applied as a standard approach to estimate flood damage. These functions assign a certain damage to the water depth depending on the use or other characteristics of the exposed objects. Recent studies apply machine learning algorithms like Random Forests (RFs) to model flood damage. These algorithms usually consider more influencing variables and promise to depict a more detailed insight into the damage processes. In addition they provide an inherent validation scheme. Our study focuses on direct, tangible damage of single companies. The objective is to model and validate the flood damage suffered by single companies with SDFs and RFs. The data sets used are taken from two surveys conducted after the floods in the Elbe and Danube catchments in the years 2002 and 2013 in Germany. Damage to buildings (n = 430), equipment (n = 651) as well as goods and stock (n = 530) are taken into account. The model outputs are validated via a comparison with the actual flood damage acquired by the surveys and subsequently compared with each other. This study investigates the gain in model performance with the use of additional data and the advantages and disadvantages of the RFs compared to SDFs. RFs show an increase in model performance with an increasing amount of data records over a comparatively large range, while the model performance of the SDFs is already saturated for a small set of records. In addition, the RFs are able to identify damage influencing variables, which improves the understanding of damage processes. Hence, RFs can slightly improve flood damage predictions and provide additional insight into the underlying mechanisms compared to SDFs.

  9. Non-Linear Adaptive Phenomena Which Decrease The Risk of Infection After Pre-Exposure to Radiofrequency Radiation

    OpenAIRE

    Mortazavi, S.M.J.; Motamedifar, M.; Namdari, G.; Taheri, M.; Mortazavi, A.R.; Shokrpour, N.

    2013-01-01

    Substantial evidence indicates that adaptive response induced by low doses of ionizing radiation can result in resistance to the damage caused by a subsequently high-dose radiation or cause cross-resistance to other non-radiation stressors. Adaptive response contradicts the linear-non-threshold (LNT) dose-response model for ionizing radiation. We have previously reported that exposure of laboratory animals to radiofrequency radiation can induce a survival adaptive response. Furthermore, we ha...

  10. Managers facing the climatic risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-01-01

    This colloquium aimed to analyze the relations between the climatic changes and extreme meteorological events and on the associated risks. It provides information and knowledge on the state of the art concerning the today scientific knowledge, the prevention measures and the adaptation facing the risks and the difficult estimation of the climatic damages costs. (A.L.B.)

  11. Development and validation of the Psychological Adaptation Scale (PAS): use in six studies of adaptation to a health condition or risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biesecker, Barbara B; Erby, Lori H; Woolford, Samuel; Adcock, Jessica Young; Cohen, Julie S; Lamb, Amanda; Lewis, Katie V; Truitt, Megan; Turriff, Amy; Reeve, Bryce B

    2013-11-01

    We introduce The Psychological Adaptation Scale (PAS) for assessing adaptation to a chronic condition or risk and present validity data from six studies of genetic conditions. Informed by theory, we identified four domains of adaptation: effective coping, self-esteem, social integration, and spiritual/existential meaning. Items were selected from the PROMIS "positive illness impact" item bank and adapted from the Rosenberg self-esteem scale to create a 20-item scale. Each domain included five items, with four sub-scale scores. Data from studies of six populations: adults affected with or at risk for genetic conditions (N=3) and caregivers of children with genetic conditions (N=3) were analyzed using confirmatory factor analyses (CFA). CFA suggested that all but five posited items converge on the domains as designed. Invariance of the PAS amongst the studies further suggested it is a valid and reliable tool to facilitate comparisons of adaptation across conditions. Use of the PAS will standardize assessments of adaptation and foster understanding of the relationships among related health outcomes, such as quality of life and psychological well-being. Clinical interventions can be designed based on PAS data to enhance dimensions of psychological adaptation to a chronic health condition or risk. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

  12. Adaptation in Europe. Addressing risks and opportunities from climate change in the context of socio-economic developments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Isoard, S. [EEA (Denmark); Winograd, M. [Alterra (Netherlands)

    2013-04-15

    The 'Adaptation in Europe' report describes the policies and some of the measures taken at EU level and by European countries. So far half of the 32 EEA member countries have plans for adaptation, and some have started to take action, although all countries still have a lot of work to do. While global mitigation efforts should continue to aim to limit global temperature increases to 2 deg. C, the report states that it is necessary to prepare for a greater range of temperature increases and other climate changes. This is needed to properly account for the many uncertainties in climatic and socio-economic projections. The report recommends a combination of different measures - 'grey' measures such as technological and engineering projects, 'green' ecosystem-based approaches using nature, and so-called 'soft' measures such as policies to change governance approaches. The most effective adaptation projects often combine two or more different approaches, the report says. For example, adaptation on France's Mediterranean coast uses an integrated approach considering climate change, tourism, transport and biodiversity. In urban areas green spaces and water bodies work together with building design to reduce heatwave risks. Barcelona has also started to adapt to water shortages with a new highly efficient desalination plant. This 'grey' project works in tandem with other 'soft' initiatives such as incentives to reduce water consumption, reducing the impacts from prolonged droughts. While the cost of adaptation may be high in some cases, the report emphasises the overall savings from some adaptation actions. One of the largest ecosystem-based adaptation projects is restoring the Danube river basin to its previously natural state. Although it will cost an estimated Euro 183 million, it should help prevent flooding such as the 2005 event which alone cost Euro 396 million in damages. Early warning systems to help

  13. Linking Climate Risk, Policy Networks and Adaptation Planning in Public Lands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lubell, M.; Schwartz, M.; Peters, C.

    2014-12-01

    Federal public land management agencies in the United States have engaged a variety of planning efforts to address climate adaptation. A major goal of these efforts is to build policy networks that enable land managers to access information and expertise needed for responding to local climate risks. This paper investigates whether the perceived and modeled climate risk faced by different land managers is leading to larger networks or more participating in climate adaptation. In theory, the benefits of climate planning networks are larger when land managers are facing more potential changes. The basic hypothesis is tested with a survey of public land managers from hundreds of local and regional public lands management units in the Southwestern United States, as well as other stakeholders involved with climate adaptation planning. All survey respondents report their perceptions of climate risk along a variety of dimensions, as well as their participation in climate adaptation planning and information sharing networks. For a subset of respondents, we have spatially explicity GIS data about their location, which will be linked with downscaled climate model data. With the focus on climate change, the analysis is a subset of the overall idea of linking social and ecological systems.

  14. Population variability in biological adaptive responses to DNA damage and the shapes of carcinogen dose-response curves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Conolly, Rory B.; Gaylor, David W.; Lutz, Werner K.

    2005-01-01

    Carcinogen dose-response curves for both ionizing radiation and chemicals are typically assumed to be linear at environmentally relevant doses. This assumption is used to ensure protection of the public health in the absence of relevant dose-response data. A theoretical justification for the assumption has been provided by the argument that low dose linearity is expected when an exogenous agent adds to an ongoing endogenous process. Here, we use computational modeling to evaluate (1) how two biological adaptive processes, induction of DNA repair and cell cycle checkpoint control, may affect the shapes of dose-response curves for DNA-damaging carcinogens and (2) how the resulting dose-response behaviors may vary within a population. Each model incorporating an adaptive process was capable of generating not only monotonic dose-responses but also nonmonotonic (J-shaped) and threshold responses. Monte Carlo analysis suggested that all these dose-response behaviors could coexist within a population, as the spectrum of qualitative differences arose from quantitative changes in parameter values. While this analysis is largely theoretical, it suggests that (a) accurate prediction of the qualitative form of the dose-response requires a quantitative understanding of the mechanism (b) significant uncertainty is associated with human health risk prediction in the absence of such quantitative understanding and (c) a stronger experimental and regulatory focus on biological mechanisms and interindividual variability would allow flexibility in regulatory treatment of environmental carcinogens without compromising human health

  15. Uncertainty assessment of climate change adaptation options in urban flash floods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhou, Qianqian; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

    Adaptation is necessary to cope with the increasing flood risk in cities due to anthropogenic climate change in many regions of the world. The choice of adaptation strategies can and should be based on a comprehensive risk-based economic analysis to indicate the net benefits of proposed options...... presented is based on a flood risk framework that is in accordance with the EU flood directive, but adapted and extended to incorporate anticipated future changes due to city development and hydrologic extremes. The framework is used to study the importance of inherent uncertainties in order to find robust......-effective regardless of the uncertainties from climate change impacts and /or damage estimation procedure when considering the ability to reduce the risk of flooding. The description of the correlation structure between the key inputs proved to be important in order to obtain a correct description of the resulting...

  16. Human Lung Cancer Risks from Radon – Part III - Evidence of Influence of Combined Bystander and Adaptive Response Effects on Radon Case-Control Studies - A Microdose Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonard, Bobby E.; Thompson, Richard E.; Beecher, Georgia C.

    2012-01-01

    Since the publication of the BEIR VI (1999) report on health risks from radon, a significant amount of new data has been published showing various mechanisms that may affect the ultimate assessment of radon as a carcinogen, in particular the potentially deleterious Bystander Effect (BE) and the potentially beneficial Adaptive Response radio-protection (AR). The case-control radon lung cancer risk data of the pooled 13 European countries radon study (Darby et al 2005, 2006) and the 8 North American pooled study (Krewski et al 2005, 2006) have been evaluated. The large variation in the odds ratios of lung cancer from radon risk is reconciled, based on the large variation in geological and ecological conditions and variation in the degree of adaptive response radio-protection against the bystander effect induced lung damage. The analysis clearly shows Bystander Effect radon lung cancer induction and Adaptive Response reduction in lung cancer in some geographical regions. It is estimated that for radon levels up to about 400 Bq m−3 there is about a 30% probability that no human lung cancer risk from radon will be experienced and a 20% probability that the risk is below the zero-radon, endogenic spontaneous or perhaps even genetically inheritable lung cancer risk rate. The BEIR VI (1999) and EPA (2003) estimates of human lung cancer deaths from radon are most likely significantly excessive. The assumption of linearity of risk, by the Linear No-Threshold Model, with increasing radon exposure is invalid. PMID:22942874

  17. Warning: safety risk with some Apple AC Wall Plug Adapters

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN IT department

    2016-01-01

    Dear Mac and iOS Users, Apple has determined that some of its two prong Apple AC wall plug adapters may break and create a risk of electrical shock.   CERN users can now exchange their affected Apple wall plug adapters at the Service Desk. To find out if your adapter is affected and for any further information concerning the procedure to follow to exchange it, please check the following URL: https://cern.service-now.com/service-portal/view-outage.do?n=OTG0028639.

  18. Comparing Methods of Calculating Expected Annual Damage in Urban Pluvial Flood Risk Assessments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anders Skovgård Olsen

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Estimating the expected annual damage (EAD due to flooding in an urban area is of great interest for urban water managers and other stakeholders. It is a strong indicator for a given area showing how vulnerable it is to flood risk and how much can be gained by implementing e.g., climate change adaptation measures. This study identifies and compares three different methods for estimating the EAD based on unit costs of flooding of urban assets. One of these methods was used in previous studies and calculates the EAD based on a few extreme events by assuming a log-linear relationship between cost of an event and the corresponding return period. This method is compared to methods that are either more complicated or require more calculations. The choice of method by which the EAD is calculated appears to be of minor importance. At all three case study areas it seems more important that there is a shift in the damage costs as a function of the return period. The shift occurs approximately at the 10 year return period and can perhaps be related to the design criteria for sewer systems. Further, it was tested if the EAD estimation could be simplified by assuming a single unit cost per flooded area. The results indicate that within each catchment this may be a feasible approach. However the unit costs varies substantially between different case study areas. Hence it is not feasible to develop unit costs that can be used to calculate EAD, most likely because the urban landscape is too heterogeneous.

  19. Climate change vulnerability, adaptation and risk perceptions at farm level in Punjab, Pakistan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abid, Muhammad; Schilling, Janpeter; Scheffran, Jürgen; Zulfiqar, Farhad

    2016-03-15

    Pakistan is among the countries highly exposed and vulnerable to climate change. The country has experienced many severe floods, droughts and storms over the last decades. However, little research has focused on the investigation of vulnerability and adaptation to climate-related risks in Pakistan. Against this backdrop, this article investigates the farm level risk perceptions and different aspects of vulnerability to climate change including sensitivity and adaptive capacity at farm level in Pakistan. We interviewed a total of 450 farming households through structured questionnaires in three districts of Punjab province of Pakistan. This study identified a number of climate-related risks perceived by farm households such as extreme temperature events, insect attacks, animal diseases and crop pests. Limited water availability, high levels of poverty and a weak role of local government in providing proper infrastructure were the factors that make farmers more sensitive to climate-related risks. Uncertainty or reduction in crop and livestock yields; changed cropping calendars and water shortage were the major adverse impacts of climate-related risks reported by farmers in the study districts. Better crop production was reported as the only positive effect. Further, this study identified a number of farm level adaptation methods employed by farm households that include changes in crop variety, crop types, planting dates and input mix, depending upon the nature of the climate-related risks. Lack of resources, limited information, lack of finances and institutional support were some constraints that limit the adaptive capacity of farm households. This study also reveals a positive role of cooperation and negative role of conflict in the adaptation process. The study suggests to address the constraints to adaptation and to improve farm level cooperation through extended outreach and distribution of institutional services, particularly climate-specific farm advisory

  20. Turning risk assessment and adaptation policy priorities into meaningful interventions and governance processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Kathryn; DiMauro, Manuela; Johns, Daniel; Holmes, Gemma; Thompson, David; Russell, Andrew; Style, David

    2018-06-01

    The UK is one of the first countries in the world to have set up a statutory system of national climate risk assessments followed by a national adaptation programme. Having this legal framework has been essential for enabling adaptation at the government level in a challenging political environment. However, using this framework to create an improvement in resilience to climate change across the country requires more than publishing a set of documents; it requires careful thought about what interventions work, how they can be enabled and what level of risk acceptability individuals, organizations and the country should be aiming for. This article is part of the theme issue `Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

  1. Damage assessment methodology for vehicles exposed to flooding in urban areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Martínez Gomariz

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Urban floods may provoke important damages to vehicles, usually not taken into account within most studies related to urban flood risks damage assessments. Herein a methodology to estimate damages to vehicles exposed to urban floods is presented. After a state-of-the-art review, the most recent damage curves for vehicles developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE, 2009 are presented as the best adaptive and the most comprehensively performed so far. The proposed methodology is applied to the Spanish municipality of Badalona, framed in the H2020 European Project BINGO. In order to conduct this methodology some aspects such as the vehicular distribution are analyzed within the study area. Finally, Expected Annual Damage (EAD for flooded vehicles is calculated based on inundations related to design storms of different return periods (1, 10, 100 and 500 years.

  2. Adapting Interpersonal Psychotherapy for Older Adults at Risk for Suicide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heisel, Marnin J.; Talbot, Nancy L.; King, Deborah A.; Tu, Xin M.; Duberstein, Paul R.

    2014-01-01

    Objective To pilot a psychological intervention adapted for older adults at-risk for suicide. Design A focused, uncontrolled, pre-to-post-treatment psychotherapy trial. All eligible participants were offered the study intervention. Setting Outpatient mental healthcare provided in the psychiatry department of an academic medical center in a mid-sized Canadian city. Participants Seventeen English-speaking adults 60 years or older, at- risk for suicide by virtue of current suicide ideation, death ideation, and/or recent self-injury. Intervention A 16-session course of Interpersonal Psychotherapy (IPT) adapted for older adults at-risk for suicide who were receiving medication and/or other standard psychiatric treatment for underlying mood disorders. Measurements Participants completed a demographics form, screens for cognitive impairment and alcohol misuse, a semi-structured diagnostic interview, and measures of primary (suicide ideation and death ideation), and secondary study outcomes (depressive symptom severity; social adjustment and support; psychological well-being), and psychotherapy process measures. Results Participants experienced significant reductions in suicide ideation, death ideation, and depressive symptom severity, and significant improvement in perceived meaning in life, social adjustment, perceived social support, and other psychological well-being variables. Conclusions Study participants experienced enhanced psychological well-being and reduced symptoms of depression and suicide ideation over the course of IPT adapted for older adults at-risk for suicide. Larger, controlled trials are needed to further evaluate the impact of this novel intervention and to test methods for translating and integrating focused interventions into standard clinical care with at-risk older adults. PMID:24840611

  3. Adapting interpersonal psychotherapy for older adults at risk for suicide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heisel, Marnin J; Talbot, Nancy L; King, Deborah A; Tu, Xin M; Duberstein, Paul R

    2015-01-01

    To pilot a psychological intervention adapted for older adults at risk for suicide. A focused, uncontrolled, pre-to-post-treatment psychotherapy trial. All eligible participants were offered the study intervention. Outpatient mental health care provided in the psychiatry department of an academic medical center in a mid-sized Canadian city. Seventeen English-speaking adults 60 years or older, at risk for suicide by virtue of current suicide ideation, death ideation, and/or recent self-injury. A 16-session course of Interpersonal Psychotherapy (IPT) adapted for older adults at risk for suicide who were receiving medication and/or other standard psychiatric treatment for underlying mood disorders. Participants completed a demographics form, screens for cognitive impairment and alcohol misuse, a semi-structured diagnostic interview, and measures of primary (suicide ideation and death ideation) and secondary study outcomes (depressive symptom severity, social adjustment and support, psychological well-being), and psychotherapy process measures. Participants experienced significant reductions in suicide ideation, death ideation, and depressive symptom severity, and significant improvement in perceived meaning in life, social adjustment, perceived social support, and other psychological well-being variables. Study participants experienced enhanced psychological well-being and reduced symptoms of depression and suicide ideation over the course of IPT adapted for older adults at risk for suicide. Larger, controlled trials are needed to further evaluate the impact of this novel intervention and to test methods for translating and integrating focused interventions into standard clinical care with at-risk older adults. Copyright © 2015 American Association for Geriatric Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Risks and benefits of the interventions aimed at minimizing nuclear damage in the Chernobyl accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rossiello, L.A.; Failla, L.

    1997-01-01

    The damages that the absorption of ionizing radiation (i.r.) can cause to humans may be classified as 1) nonstochastic (somatic or deterministic) or 2) stochastic (probabilistic) , which result, for example, from high doses of i.r. absorbed after a serious nuclear accident. Though the Chernobyl case involved both kinds of damage, this paper deals only with stochastic damage risk, and confine our considerations to individuals who were directly Affected and received high i.r. doses. The purpose of this paper is to provide elements on which to base future decisions on the evacuation and return of populations affected by serious nuclear accidents. Unlike the abundant literature on the subject, and as a necessary complement thereto within the bounds of a strict synthesis, to identify the most significant parameters applicable to single individuals rather than to the population at large, and referring solely to risks of stochastic damage

  5. Estimating young Australian adults' risk of hearing damage from selected leisure activities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beach, Elizabeth; Williams, Warwick; Gilliver, Megan

    2013-01-01

    Several previous studies have attempted to estimate the risk of noise-induced hearing loss from loud leisure noise. Some of these studies may have overestimated the risk because they used noise estimates taken from the higher end of reported levels. The aim of the present study was to provide a realistic estimate of the number of young Australian adults who may be at risk of hearing damage and eventual hearing loss from leisure-noise exposure. Average noise levels at five high-noise leisure activities, (1) nightclubs; (2) pubs, bars, and registered clubs; (3) fitness classes; (4) live sporting events; (5) concerts and live music venues, were calculated using 108 measurements taken from a large database of leisure noise measurements. In addition, an online survey was administered to a convenience sample of 1000 young adults aged 18 to 35 years, who reported the time spent at these leisure activities and the frequency with which they undertook the activities. They also answered questions about tinnitus and their perceived risk of hearing damage. Although the survey data cannot be considered representative of the population of young Australian adults, it was weighted to this population in respect of age, gender, education, and location. The survey data and the average noise levels were used to estimate each individual's annual noise exposure, and in turn, estimate those at risk of hearing damage from leisure-noise exposure. For the majority of participants (n = 868), the accumulated leisure noise level was within the acceptable workplace limit. However, 132 participants or 14.1% (population weighted) were exposed to an annual noise dose greater than the acceptable workplace noise limit. By far, the main source of high-risk leisure noise was from nightclubs. Those with more leisure-noise exposure experienced more tinnitus and perceived themselves to be more at risk than those with lower noise exposures. It is recommended that nightclub operators reduce noise levels

  6. Untangling Risk in Water Supply Systems: What Factors Drive Long-term Adaptation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeff, H. B.; Lin, L.; Band, L. E.; Reed, P. M.; Characklis, G. W.

    2016-12-01

    Deeply uncertain factors like climate change, the hydrologic impacts of urbanization, forest evolution, and long-term demand forecasts make water supply planning a `wicked' problem. The traditional technique of assessing risk based on historical observations can be inadequate in the face of environmental non-stationarity. However, competing models and limited observational data make it difficult for decision makers and experts to agree on how much uncertainty should be built into analyses of risk, particularly at the timescales relevant to long-term investments in water infrastructure. Further, the physical connectivity of these deeply uncertain processes create inter-related systems, amplifying the challenges of a `worst case scenario'. The development of adaptive systems and planning processes provide solutions that have been shown to meet technical, environmental, and social objectives at lower costs. Instead of developing plans with fixed targets for the timing of actions, adaptive plans develop risk metrics and thresholds that are able to integrate new information to determine when conditions reach a `tipping point' which necessitates action. It is an open question as to how new information can be best integrated into the decision-making process (i.e. how much weight do we give new observations relative to the historical record), but a better understanding of the way the relevant systems are expected to evolve and change over time could inform these decisions. In this study, we use linked, dynamic models of temperature and precipitation changes, forest evolution, urbanization, hydrology, and water demand to develop scenarios for an adaptive water management framework that uses risk-based metrics to make short- and long-term decisions. The impact of individual environmental processes on the adaptive capability of this management framework is evaluated through problem formulations that successively increase the complexity of the uncertainty scenarios. Although

  7. Risk and Uncertainties, Analysis and Evaluation: Lessons for Adaptation and Integration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yohe, G.; Dowlatabadi, H.

    1999-01-01

    This paper draws ten lessons from analyses of adaptation to climate change under conditions of risk and uncertainty: (1) Socio-economic systems will likely respond most to extreme realizations of climate change. (2) Systems have been responding to variations in climate for centuries. (3) Future change will effect future citizens and their institutions. (4) Human systems can be the sources of surprise. (5) Perceptions of risk depend upon welfare valuations that depend upon expectations. (6) Adaptive decisions will be made in response to climate change and climate change policy. (7) Analysis of adaptive decisions should recognize the second-best context of those decisions. (8) Climate change offers opportunity as well as risk. (9) All plausible futures should be explored. (10) Multiple methodological approaches should be accommodated. These lessons support two pieces of advice for the Third Assessment Report: (1) Work toward consensus, but not at the expense of thorough examination and reporting of the 'tails' of the distributions of the future. (2) Integrated assessment is only one unifying methodology; others that can better accommodate those tails should be encouraged and embraced. 12 refs

  8. Adaptive response to DNA-damaging agents in natural Saccharomyces cerevisiae populations from "Evolution Canyon", Mt. Carmel, Israel.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriel A Lidzbarsky

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Natural populations of most organisms, especially unicellular microorganisms, are constantly exposed to harsh environmental factors which affect their growth. UV radiation is one of the most important physical parameters which influences yeast growth in nature. Here we used 46 natural strains of Saccharomyces cerevisiae isolated from several natural populations at the "Evolution Canyon" microsite (Nahal Oren, Mt. Carmel, Israel. The opposing slopes of this canyon share the same geology, soil, and macroclimate, but they differ in microclimatic conditions. The interslope differences in solar radiation (200%-800% more on the "African" slope caused the development of two distinct biomes. The south-facing slope is sunnier and has xeric, savannoid "African" environment while the north-facing slope is represented by temperate, "European" forested environment. Here we studied the phenotypic response of the S. cerevisiae strains to UVA and UVC radiations and to methyl methanesulfonate (MMS in order to evaluate the interslope effect on the strains' ability to withstand DNA-damaging agents.We exposed our strains to the different DNA-damaging agents and measured survival by counting colony forming units. The strains from the "African" slope were more resilient to both UVA and MMS than the strains from the "European" slope. In contrast, we found that there was almost no difference between strains (with similar ploidy from the opposite slopes, in their sensitivity to UVC radiation. These results suggest that the "African" strains are more adapted to higher solar radiation than the "European" strains. We also found that the tetraploids strains were more tolerant to all DNA-damaging agents than their neighboring diploid strains, which suggest that high ploidy level might be a mechanism of adaptation to high solar radiation.Our results and the results of parallel studies with several other organisms, suggest that natural selection appears to select, at a

  9. Public perception of climate risk and adaptation in the UK: A review of the literature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea L. Taylor

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Like other countries, the United Kingdom faces the unavoidable challenge of adapting to a changing climate. However, public perceptions of the risk posed by climate change and support for adaptation policies vary between countries. This article provides a UK-specific review of climate change beliefs, risk perceptions regarding potential climate change impacts, and attitudes towards climate change adaptation. We report on differences between expert and public conceptualisations of climate change risks. We also examine the effects of psychological distancing, climate change awareness, and hazard experience on both concerns about climate change and perceptions of the weather-related risks posed by climate change. Additionally, we review the effects of emotion, agency, perceived responsibility, place attachment, personal values and uncertainty on the willingness of UK residents to support and engage with climate change adaptation. We outline the implications of these factors for climate risk communication and highlight key areas for future research.

  10. Climate adaptation of buildings through MOM- and upgrading - State of the art and research needs

    OpenAIRE

    Grynning, Steinar; Wærnes, Elisabeth Gaal; Kvande, Tore; Time, Berit

    2017-01-01

    This study presents an overview of research initiatives and projects addressing climate adaption in management operation and maintenance (MOM) and upgrade of existing buildings. The aim was to identify knowledge needs and research demand necessary for decision makers to address climate adaptation in their MOM and upgrade plans. Climate adaptation of buildings in the Norwegian climate very much concerns increased moisture robustness and risk reduction of moisture damages. Thus, a strong focus ...

  11. Adaptive Governance, Uncertainty, and Risk: Policy Framing and Responses to Climate Change, Drought, and Flood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hurlbert, Margot; Gupta, Joyeeta

    2016-02-01

    As climate change impacts result in more extreme events (such as droughts and floods), the need to understand which policies facilitate effective climate change adaptation becomes crucial. Hence, this article answers the question: How do governments and policymakers frame policy in relation to climate change, droughts, and floods and what governance structures facilitate adaptation? This research interrogates and analyzes through content analysis, supplemented by semi-structured qualitative interviews, the policy response to climate change, drought, and flood in relation to agricultural producers in four case studies in river basins in Chile, Argentina, and Canada. First, an epistemological explanation of risk and uncertainty underscores a brief literature review of adaptive governance, followed by policy framing in relation to risk and uncertainty, and an analytical model is developed. Pertinent findings of the four cases are recounted, followed by a comparative analysis. In conclusion, recommendations are made to improve policies and expand adaptive governance to better account for uncertainty and risk. This article is innovative in that it proposes an expanded model of adaptive governance in relation to "risk" that can help bridge the barrier of uncertainty in science and policy. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  12. Haemodynamic responses and changes of haemostatic risk factors in cold-adapted humans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Lorenzo, F; Kadziola, Z; Mukherjee, M; Saba, N; Kakkar, V V

    1999-09-01

    Epidemiological studies have shown an increase in acute myocardial infarctions or deaths due to myocardial infarction in colder weather; the mechanisms most likely involve increased blood levels of haemostatic risk factors, and increases in arterial blood pressure and heart rate. We studied the relationship between cold adaptation, haemostatic risk factors and haemodynamic variables. Cold adaptation was obtained by a programme of immersion of the whole body up to the neck in a water-filled bath, the temperature of which was gradually decreased from 22 degrees C to 14 degrees C, time of exposure being increased from 5 to 20 min over a period of 90 days. We studied 428 patients (44% men) and measured blood levels of fibrinogen, plasminogen activator inhibitor 1 (PAI-1), tissue plasminogen activator antigen (t-PA), plasma viscosity, von Willebrand factor, D-dimer and platelet count, both at baseline and after 90 days of daily immersion. There were significant reductions in von Willebrand factor (-3%; p cold adaptation (-310; p = 0.004). Cold adaptation, compared with exposure to cold weather, induces different haemodynamic responses and changes of blood levels of haemostatic risk factors.

  13. The adaptation to climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Gameren, Valentine; Weikmans, Romain; Zaccai, Edwin

    2014-01-01

    The authors address the issue of adaptation to climate change. They first address the physical aspects related to this issue: scenarios of temperature evolution, main possible impacts. Then, they address the social impacts related to climate risks, and the adaptation strategies which aim at reducing the exposure and vulnerability of human societies, or at increasing their resilience. Some examples of losses of human lives and of economic damages due to recent catastrophes related to climate change are evoked. The authors address the international framework, the emergence of an international regime on climate, the quite recent emergence of adaptation within international negotiations in 2001, the emergence of the idea of a support to developing countries. National and local policies are presented in the next chapter (in the European Union, the Netherlands which are faced with the issue of sea level rise, programs in developing countries) and their limitations are also outlined. The next chapter addresses the adaptation actions performed by private actors (enterprises, households, associations, civil society, and so on) with example of vulnerability, and adaptation opportunities and possibilities in some specific sectors. The last chapter presents a typology of actions of adaptation, indicators of adaptation to climate change, and examples of mistaken adaptation

  14. Adaptive response in human blood lymphocytes exposed to non-ionizing radiofrequency fields: resistance to ionizing radiation-induced damage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sannino, Anna; Zeni, Olga; Romeo, Stefania; Massa, Rita; Gialanella, Giancarlo; Grossi, Gianfranco; Manti, Lorenzo; Vijayalaxmi; Scarfì, Maria Rosaria

    2014-03-01

    The aim of this preliminary investigation was to assess whether human peripheral blood lymphocytes which have been pre-exposed to non-ionizing radiofrequency fields exhibit an adaptive response (AR) by resisting the induction of genetic damage from subsequent exposure to ionizing radiation. Peripheral blood lymphocytes from four healthy donors were stimulated with phytohemagglutinin for 24 h and then exposed for 20 h to 1950 MHz radiofrequency fields (RF, adaptive dose, AD) at an average specific absorption rate of 0.3 W/kg. At 48 h, the cells were subjected to a challenge dose (CD) of 1.0 or 1.5 Gy X-irradiation (XR, challenge dose, CD). After a 72 h total culture period, cells were collected to examine the incidence of micronuclei (MN). There was a significant decrease in the number of MN in lymphocytes exposed to RF + XR (AD + CD) as compared with those subjected to XR alone (CD). These observations thus suggested a RF-induced AR and induction of resistance to subsequent damage from XR. There was variability between the donors in RF-induced AR. The data reported in our earlier investigations also indicated a similar induction of AR in human blood lymphocytes that had been pre-exposed to RF (AD) and subsequently treated with a chemical mutagen, mitomycin C (CD). Since XR and mitomycin-C induce different kinds of lesions in cellular DNA, further studies are required to understand the mechanism(s) involved in the RF-induced adaptive response.

  15. Partial meniscectomy is associated with increased risk of incident radiographic osteoarthritis and worsening cartilage damage in the following year

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roemer, Frank W. [Boston University School of Medicine, Quantitative Imaging Center, Department of Radiology, Boston, MA (United States); University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Department of Radiology, Erlangen (Germany); Kwoh, C.K. [University of Arizona Arthritis Center and University of Arizona College of Medicine, Tucson, AZ (United States); Hannon, Michael J.; Grago, Jason [University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine, Division of Rheumatology and Clinical Immunology, Pittsburgh, PA (United States); Hunter, David J. [University of Sydney, Department of Rheumatology, Royal North Shore Hospital and Kolling Institute, St Leonards (Australia); Eckstein, Felix [Paracelsus Medical University, Institute of Anatomy, Salzburg (Austria); Boudreau, Robert M. [University of Pittsburgh Graduate School of Public Health, Department of Epidemiology, Pittsburgh, PA (United States); Englund, Martin [Lund University, Clinical Epidemiology Unit, Orthopaedics, Department of Clinical Sciences Lund, Lund (Sweden); Guermazi, Ali [Boston University School of Medicine, Quantitative Imaging Center, Department of Radiology, Boston, MA (United States)

    2017-01-15

    To assess whether partial meniscectomy is associated with increased risk of radiographic osteoarthritis (ROA) and worsening cartilage damage in the following year. We studied 355 knees from the Osteoarthritis Initiative that developed ROA (Kellgren-Lawrence grade ≥ 2), which were matched with control knees. The MR images were assessed using the semi-quantitative MOAKS system. Conditional logistic regression was applied to estimate risk of incident ROA. Logistic regression was used to assess the risk of worsening cartilage damage in knees with partial meniscectomy that developed ROA. In the group with incident ROA, 4.4 % underwent partial meniscectomy during the year prior to the case-defining visit, compared with none of the knees that did not develop ROA. All (n = 31) knees that had partial meniscectomy and 58.9 % (n = 165) of the knees with prevalent meniscal damage developed ROA (OR = 2.51, 95 % CI [1.73, 3.64]). In knees that developed ROA, partial meniscectomy was associated with an increased risk of worsening cartilage damage (OR = 4.51, 95 % CI [1.53, 13.33]). The probability of having had partial meniscectomy was higher in knees that developed ROA. When looking only at knees that developed ROA, partial meniscectomy was associated with greater risk of worsening cartilage damage. (orig.)

  16. The KnowRISK project: Tools and strategies to reduce non-structural damage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sousa Oliveira, Carlos; Lopes, Mário; Mota de Sá, Francisco; Amaral Ferreia, Mónica; Candeias, Paulo; Campos Costa, Alfredo; Rupakhety, Rajesh; Meroni, Fabrizio; Azzaro, Raffaele; D'Amico, Salvatore; Langer, Horst; Musacchio, Gemma; Sousa Silva, Delta; Falsaperla, Susanna; Scarfì, Luciano; Tusa, Giuseppina; Tuvé, Tiziana

    2016-04-01

    The project KnowRISK (Know your city, Reduce seISmic risK through non-structural elements) is financed by the European Commission to develop prevention measures that may reduce non-structural damage in urban areas. Pilot areas of the project are within the three European participating countries, namely Portugal, Iceland and Italy. Non-structural components of a building include all those components that are not part of the structural system, more specifically the architectural, mechanical, electrical, and plumbing systems, as well as furniture, fixtures, equipment, and contents. Windows, partitions, granite veneer, piping, ceilings, air conditioning ducts and equipment, elevators, computer and hospital equipment, file cabinets, and retail merchandise are all examples of non-structural components that are vulnerable to earthquake damage. We will use the experience gained during past earthquakes, which struck in particular Iceland, Italy and Portugal (Azores). Securing the non-structural elements improves the safety during an earthquake and saves lives. This paper aims at identifying non-structural seismic protection measures in the pilot areas and to develop a portfolio of good practices for the most common and serious non-structural vulnerabilities. This systematic identification and the portfolio will be achieved through a "cross-knowledge" strategy based on previous researches, evidence of non-structural damage in past earthquakes. Shake table tests of a group of non-structural elements will be performed. These tests will be filmed and, jointly with portfolio, will serve as didactic supporting tools to be used in workshops with building construction stakeholders and in risk communication activities. A Practical Guide for non-structural risk reduction will be specifically prepared for citizens on the basis of the outputs of the project, taking into account the local culture and needs of each participating country.

  17. Study on quantitative risk assessment model of the third party damage for natural gas pipelines based on fuzzy comprehensive assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Qiu, Zeyang; Liang, Wei; Lin, Yang; Zhang, Meng; Wang, Xue

    2017-01-01

    As an important part of national energy supply system, transmission pipelines for natural gas are possible to cause serious environmental pollution, life and property loss in case of accident. The third party damage is one of the most significant causes for natural gas pipeline system accidents, and it is very important to establish an effective quantitative risk assessment model of the third party damage for reducing the number of gas pipelines operation accidents. Against the third party damage accident has the characteristics such as diversity, complexity and uncertainty, this paper establishes a quantitative risk assessment model of the third party damage based on Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation (FCE). Firstly, risk sources of third party damage should be identified exactly, and the weight of factors could be determined via improved AHP, finally the importance of each factor is calculated by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model. The results show that the quantitative risk assessment model is suitable for the third party damage of natural gas pipelines and improvement measures could be put forward to avoid accidents based on the importance of each factor. (paper)

  18. ELICITED EXPERT PERCEPTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE RISKS AND ADAPTATION IN AGRICULTURE AND FOOD PRODUCTION THROUGH MENTAL MODELS APPROACH

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suda, Eiko; Kubota, Hiromi; Baba, Kenshi; Hijioka, Yasuaki; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Hanasaki, Naota

    Impacts of climate change have become obvious in agriculture and food production in Japan these days, and researches to adapt to their risks have been conducted as a key effort to cope with the climate change. Numerous scientific findings on climate change impacts have been presented so far; however, prospective risks to be adapted to and their management in the context of individual on-site situations have not been investigated in detail. The structure of climate change risks and their management vary depending on geographical and social features in the regions where the adaptation options should be applied; therefore, a practical adaptation strategy should consider actual on-site situations. This study intended to clarify climate change risks to be adapted to in the Japanese agricultural sector, and factors to be considered in adaptation options, for encouragement of decision-making on adaptation implementation in the field. Semi-structured individual interviews have been conducted with 9 multidisciplinary experts engaging in climate change impacts research in agricultural production, economics, engineering, policy, and so on. Based on the results of the interviews, and the latest literatures available for risk assessment and adaptation, an expert mental model including their perceptions which cover the process from climate change impacts assessment to adaptation has been developed. The prospective risks, adaptation options, and issues to be examined to progress the development of practical and effective adaptation options and to support individual or social decision-making, have been shown on the developed expert mental model. It is the basic information for developing social communication and stakeholders cooperations in climate change adaptation strategies in agriculture and food production in Japan.

  19. Parallel structures for disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation in Southern Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Per Becker

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available During the last decade, the interest of the international community in the concepts of disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation has been growing immensely. Even though an increasing number of scholars seem to view these concepts as two sides of the same coin (at least when not considering the potentially positive effects of climate change, in practice the two concepts have developed in parallel rather than in an integrated manner when it comes to policy, rhetoric and funding opportunities amongst international organisations and donors. This study investigates the extent of the creation of parallel structures for disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation in the Southern African Development Community (SADC region. The chosen methodology for the study is a comparative case study and the data are collected through focus groups and content analysis of documentary sources, as well as interviews with key informants. The results indicate that parallel structures for disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation have been established in all but one of the studied countries. The qualitative interviews performed in some of the countries indicate that stakeholders in disaster risk reduction view this duplication of structures as unfortunate, inefficient and a fertile setup for conflict over resources for the implementation of similar activities. Additional research is called for in order to study the concrete effects of having these parallel structures as a foundation for advocacy for more efficient future disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation.

  20. Risk-informed optimal routing of ships considering different damage scenarios and operational conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Decò, Alberto; Frangopol, Dan M.

    2013-01-01

    The aim of this paper is the development of a risk-informed decision tool for the optimal mission-oriented routing of ships. The strength of the hull is investigated by modeling the midship section with finite elements and by analyzing different damage levels depending on the propagation of plastification throughout the section. Vertical and horizontal flexural interaction is investigated. Uncertainties associated with geometry and material properties are accounted for by means of the implementation of the response surface method. Load effects are evaluated using strip theory. Reliability analysis is performed for several ship operational conditions and considering four different limit states. Then, risk is assessed by including the direct losses associated with five investigated damage states. The effects of corrosion on aged ships are included in the proposed approach. Polar representation of load effects, reliability, and direct risk are presented for a large spectrum of operational conditions. Finally, the optimal routing of ships is obtained by minimizing both the estimated time of arrival and the expected direct risk, which are clearly conflicting objectives. The optimization process provides feasible solutions belonging to the Pareto front. The proposed approach is applied to a Joint High Speed Sealift

  1. Adaptation measures and pathways for flood risk in Dordrecht

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gersonius, B.; Kelder, E.; Anema, K.; van Herk, S.; Zevenbergen, C.

    2014-01-01

    In line with the Adaptive Delta Management approach of the Dutch Delta Programme, Dordrecht has developed a multi-layer safety strategy to meet the future tasking for flood risk management. This strategy puts greater emphasis on limiting the consequences of floods through spatial planning (layer 2)

  2. Associations between risk perception, spontaneous adaptation behavior to heat waves and heatstroke in Guangdong province, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Tao; Xu, Yan Jun; Zhang, Yong Hui; Yan, Qing Hua; Song, Xiu Ling; Xie, Hui Yan; Luo, Yuan; Rutherford, Shannon; Chu, Cordia; Lin, Hua Liang; Ma, Wen Jun

    2013-10-02

    In many parts of the world, including in China, extreme heat events or heat waves are likely to increase in intensity, frequency, and duration in light of climate change in the next decades. Risk perception and adaptation behaviors are two important components in reducing the health impacts of heat waves, but little is known about their relationships in China. This study aimed to examine the associations between risk perception to heat waves, adaptation behaviors, and heatstroke among the public in Guangdong province, China. A total of 2,183 adult participants were selected using a four-stage sampling method in Guangdong province. From September to November of 2010 each subject was interviewed at home by a well-trained investigator using a structured questionnaire. The information collected included socio-demographic characteristics, risk perception and spontaneous adaptation behaviors during heat wave periods, and heatstroke experience in the last year. Chi-square tests and unconditional logistic regression models were employed to analyze the data. This study found that 14.8%, 65.3% and 19.9% of participants perceived heat waves as a low, moderate or high health risk, respectively. About 99.1% participants employed at least one spontaneous adaptation behavior, and 26.2%, 51.2% and 22.6% respondents employed 7 adaptation behaviors during heat waves, respectively. Individuals with moderate (OR=2.93, 95% CI: 1.38-6.22) or high (OR=10.58, 95% CI: 4.74-23.63) risk perception experienced more heatstroke in the past year than others. Drinking more water and wearing light clothes in urban areas, while decreasing activity as well as wearing light clothes in rural areas were negatively associated with heatstroke. Individuals with high risk perception and employing risks of heatstroke (OR=47.46, 95% CI: 12.82-175.73). There is a large room for improving health risk perception and adaptation capacity to heat waves among the public of Guangdong province. People with higher

  3. Associations between risk perception, spontaneous adaptation behavior to heat waves and heatstroke in Guangdong province, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Background In many parts of the world, including in China, extreme heat events or heat waves are likely to increase in intensity, frequency, and duration in light of climate change in the next decades. Risk perception and adaptation behaviors are two important components in reducing the health impacts of heat waves, but little is known about their relationships in China. This study aimed to examine the associations between risk perception to heat waves, adaptation behaviors, and heatstroke among the public in Guangdong province, China. Methods A total of 2,183 adult participants were selected using a four-stage sampling method in Guangdong province. From September to November of 2010 each subject was interviewed at home by a well-trained investigator using a structured questionnaire. The information collected included socio-demographic characteristics, risk perception and spontaneous adaptation behaviors during heat wave periods, and heatstroke experience in the last year. Chi-square tests and unconditional logistic regression models were employed to analyze the data. Results This study found that 14.8%, 65.3% and 19.9% of participants perceived heat waves as a low, moderate or high health risk, respectively. About 99.1% participants employed at least one spontaneous adaptation behavior, and 26.2%, 51.2% and 22.6% respondents employed 7 adaptation behaviors during heat waves, respectively. Individuals with moderate (OR=2.93, 95% CI: 1.38-6.22) or high (OR=10.58, 95% CI: 4.74-23.63) risk perception experienced more heatstroke in the past year than others. Drinking more water and wearing light clothes in urban areas, while decreasing activity as well as wearing light clothes in rural areas were negatively associated with heatstroke. Individuals with high risk perception and employing risks of heatstroke (OR=47.46, 95% CI: 12.82-175.73). Conclusions There is a large room for improving health risk perception and adaptation capacity to heat waves among the public of

  4. Cerebral Damage May Be the Primary Risk Factor for Visual Impairment in Preschool Children Born Extremely Premature

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Slidsborg, Carina; Bangsgaard, Regitze; Fledelius, Hans Callø

    2012-01-01

    OBJECTIVES To investigate the importance of cerebral damage and retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) for visual impairment in preschool children born extremely premature and to determine the primary risk factor of the two. METHODS A clinical follow-up study of a Danish national cohort of children born......, 3.0-25.2; P visual impairment in children born extremely premature, and cerebral damage may be the primary risk...... participants were identified through the National Birth Register and invited to participate in a clinical examination. The children were evaluated with regard to visual acuity, foveal sequelae, and maximum ROP stage and the presence of global developmental deficits (an indicator for cerebral damage...

  5. Ultraviolet Radiation-Induced Cytogenetic Damage in White, Hispanic and Black Skin Melanocytes: A Risk for Cutaneous Melanoma

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dasgupta, Amrita [Hampton University Skin of Color Research Institute, Hampton, VA 23668 (United States); Katdare, Meena, E-mail: mkatdare@gmail.com [Hampton University Skin of Color Research Institute, Hampton, VA 23668 (United States); Department of Dermatology, Eastern Virginia Medical School, Norfolk, VA 23507 (United States)

    2015-08-14

    Cutaneous Melanoma (CM) is a leading cause of cancer deaths, with reports indicating a rising trend in the incidence rate of melanoma among Hispanics in certain U.S. states. The level of melanin pigmentation in the skin is suggested to render photoprotection from the DNA-damaging effects of Ultraviolet Radiation (UVR). UVR-induced DNA damage leads to cytogenetic defects visualized as the formation of micronuclei, multinuclei and polymorphic nuclei in cells, and a hallmark of cancer risk. The causative relationship between Sun exposure and CM is controversial, especially in Hispanics and needs further evaluation. This study was initiated with melanocytes from White, Hispanic and Black neonatal foreskins which were exposed to UVR to assess their susceptibility to UVR-induced modulation of cellular growth, cytogenetic damage, intracellular and released melanin. Our results show that White and Hispanic skin melanocytes with similar levels of constitutive melanin are susceptible to UVR-induced cytogenetic damage, whereas Black skin melanocytes are not. Our data suggest that the risk of developing UVR-induced CM in a skin type is correlated with the level of cutaneous pigmentation and its ethnic background. This study provides a benchmark for further investigation on the damaging effects of UVR as risk for CM in Hispanics.

  6. Ultraviolet Radiation-Induced Cytogenetic Damage in White, Hispanic and Black Skin Melanocytes: A Risk for Cutaneous Melanoma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dasgupta, Amrita; Katdare, Meena

    2015-01-01

    Cutaneous Melanoma (CM) is a leading cause of cancer deaths, with reports indicating a rising trend in the incidence rate of melanoma among Hispanics in certain U.S. states. The level of melanin pigmentation in the skin is suggested to render photoprotection from the DNA-damaging effects of Ultraviolet Radiation (UVR). UVR-induced DNA damage leads to cytogenetic defects visualized as the formation of micronuclei, multinuclei and polymorphic nuclei in cells, and a hallmark of cancer risk. The causative relationship between Sun exposure and CM is controversial, especially in Hispanics and needs further evaluation. This study was initiated with melanocytes from White, Hispanic and Black neonatal foreskins which were exposed to UVR to assess their susceptibility to UVR-induced modulation of cellular growth, cytogenetic damage, intracellular and released melanin. Our results show that White and Hispanic skin melanocytes with similar levels of constitutive melanin are susceptible to UVR-induced cytogenetic damage, whereas Black skin melanocytes are not. Our data suggest that the risk of developing UVR-induced CM in a skin type is correlated with the level of cutaneous pigmentation and its ethnic background. This study provides a benchmark for further investigation on the damaging effects of UVR as risk for CM in Hispanics

  7. Energy infrastructure in India: Profile and risks under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Garg, Amit; Naswa, Prakriti; Shukla, P.R.

    2015-01-01

    risks to energy infrastructures in India and details two case studies - a crude oil importing port and a western coast railway transporting coal. The climate vulnerability of the port has been mapped using an index while that of the railway has been done through a damage function for RCP 4.5.0 and 8.......5 scenarios. Our analysis shows that risk management through adaptation is likely to be very expensive. The system risks can be even greater and might adversely affect energy security and access objectives. Aligning sustainable development and climate adaptation measures can deliver substantial co......-benefits. The key policy recommendations include: i) mandatory vulnerability assessment to future climate risks for energy infrastructures; ii) project and systemic risks in the vulnerability index; iii) adaptation funds for unmitigated climate risks; iv) continuous monitoring of climatic parameters...

  8. Determination of the adaptive response induced In vivo by gamma radiation and its relation with the sensibility to the damage induction in the DNA and with the repairing capacity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mendiola C, M.T.

    2002-01-01

    The kinetics of damage induction and repair at different doses as well as the adaptive response induced by gamma ray exposure were determined in murine leukocytes in vivo. The damage-repair kinetics were established after the exposure to 0.5, 1.0 or 2.0 Gy in a 137 Cs source. Peripheral blood samples were obtained from the tails of mice, the percentage of damaged cells and the DNA migration in each one were analyzed by the single cell gel electrophoresis (SCG) technique or comet assay. Results indicated that there was an induction of approximately 75% comets with the doses of 1.0 and 2.0 Gy, which was considerably reduced to 22% and 42% respectively during the first 15 minutes. This evidences the presence of a rapid repair process and suggests that leucocytes are genetically well prepared to repair this kind of damage. After 15 minutes, a second increase in the percentage of damaged cells that was proportional to dose occurred, which seems to represent the breaks produced during the repair of other kind of lesions. After that a second reduction was observed, reaching values near to the basal ones, except with the dose of 2.0 Gy. The kinetics obtained with the dose of 0.5 Gy was similar to that established with 1.0 Gy, but in this case the initial damage was 50 % lower. Besides, the adaptive response was observed after the exposure of the mice to an adaptive dose of 0.01 Gy and to a challenge dose of 1.0 Gy 60 minutes later. The pretreatment reduced the percentage of damaged cells caused by the challenge dose to one third approximately, and also diminished this parameter produced during the late repair process. This indicates that the early adaptive response is caused, instead of by an increment in repair, by the induction of a process that protects DNA from damage induction by radiation, i.e synthesis of substances that increase the scavenging of free radicals. (Author)

  9. Integrating scientific and local knowledge to inform risk-based management approaches for climate adaptation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nathan P. Kettle

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Risk-based management approaches to climate adaptation depend on the assessment of potential threats, and their causes, vulnerabilities, and impacts. The refinement of these approaches relies heavily on detailed local knowledge of places and priorities, such as infrastructure, governance structures, and socio-economic conditions, as well as scientific understanding of climate projections and trends. Developing processes that integrate local and scientific knowledge will enhance the value of risk-based management approaches, facilitate group learning and planning processes, and support the capacity of communities to prepare for change. This study uses the Vulnerability, Consequences, and Adaptation Planning Scenarios (VCAPS process, a form of analytic-deliberative dialogue, and the conceptual frameworks of hazard management and climate vulnerability, to integrate scientific and local knowledge. We worked with local government staff in an urbanized barrier island community (Sullivan’s Island, South Carolina to consider climate risks, impacts, and adaptation challenges associated with sea level rise and wastewater and stormwater management. The findings discuss how the process increases understanding of town officials’ views of risks and climate change impacts to barrier islands, the management actions being considered to address of the multiple impacts of concern, and the local tradeoffs and challenges in adaptation planning. We also comment on group learning and specific adaptation tasks, strategies, and needs identified.

  10. Beyond Risk and Protective Factors: An Adaptation-Based Approach to Resilience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellis, Bruce J; Bianchi, JeanMarie; Griskevicius, Vladas; Frankenhuis, Willem E

    2017-07-01

    How does repeated or chronic childhood adversity shape social and cognitive abilities? According to the prevailing deficit model, children from high-stress backgrounds are at risk for impairments in learning and behavior, and the intervention goal is to prevent, reduce, or repair the damage. Missing from this deficit approach is an attempt to leverage the unique strengths and abilities that develop in response to high-stress environments. Evolutionary-developmental models emphasize the coherent, functional changes that occur in response to stress over the life course. Research in birds, rodents, and humans suggests that developmental exposures to stress can improve forms of attention, perception, learning, memory, and problem solving that are ecologically relevant in harsh-unpredictable environments (as per the specialization hypothesis). Many of these skills and abilities, moreover, are primarily manifest in currently stressful contexts where they would provide the greatest fitness-relevant advantages (as per the sensitization hypothesis). This perspective supports an alternative adaptation-based approach to resilience that converges on a central question: "What are the attention, learning, memory, problem-solving, and decision-making strategies that are enhanced through exposures to childhood adversity?" At an applied level, this approach focuses on how we can work with, rather than against, these strengths to promote success in education, employment, and civic life.

  11. Advancing national climate change risk assessment to deliver national adaptation plans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warren, R. F.; Wilby, R. L.; Brown, K.; Watkiss, P.; Betts, Richard A.; Murphy, James M.; Lowe, Jason A.

    2018-06-01

    A wide range of climate vulnerability and risk assessments have been implemented using different approaches at different scales, some with a broad multi-sectoral scope and others focused on single risks or sectors. This paper describes the novel approach to vulnerability and risk assessment which was designed and put into practice in the United Kingdom's Second Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA2) so as to build upon its earlier assessment (CCRA1). First, we summarize and critique the CCRA1 approach, and second describe the steps taken in the CCRA2 approach in detail, providing examples of how each was applied in practice. Novel elements of the approach include assessment of both present day and future vulnerability, a focus on the urgency of adaptation action, and a structure focused around systems of receptors rather than conventional sectors. Both stakeholders and reviewers generally regarded the approach as successful in providing advice on current risks and future opportunities to the UK from climate change, and the fulfilment of statutory duty. The need for a well-supported and open suite of impact indicators going forward is highlighted. This article is part of the theme issue `Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

  12. Advancing national climate change risk assessment to deliver national adaptation plans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warren, R F; Wilby, R L; Brown, K; Watkiss, P; Betts, Richard A; Murphy, James M; Lowe, Jason A

    2018-06-13

    A wide range of climate vulnerability and risk assessments have been implemented using different approaches at different scales, some with a broad multi-sectoral scope and others focused on single risks or sectors. This paper describes the novel approach to vulnerability and risk assessment which was designed and put into practice in the United Kingdom's Second Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA2) so as to build upon its earlier assessment (CCRA1). First, we summarize and critique the CCRA1 approach, and second describe the steps taken in the CCRA2 approach in detail, providing examples of how each was applied in practice. Novel elements of the approach include assessment of both present day and future vulnerability, a focus on the urgency of adaptation action, and a structure focused around systems of receptors rather than conventional sectors. Both stakeholders and reviewers generally regarded the approach as successful in providing advice on current risks and future opportunities to the UK from climate change, and the fulfilment of statutory duty. The need for a well-supported and open suite of impact indicators going forward is highlighted.This article is part of the theme issue 'Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'. © 2018 The Author(s).

  13. Climate Risk Modelling of Balsam Woolly Adelgid Damage Severity in Subalpine Fir Stands of Western North America.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hrinkevich, Kathryn H; Progar, Robert A; Shaw, David C

    2016-01-01

    The balsam woolly adelgid (Adelges piceae (Ratzeburg) (Homoptera: Adelgidae)) (BWA) is a nonnative, invasive insect that threatens Abies species throughout North America. It is well established in the Pacific Northwest, but continues to move eastward through Idaho and into Montana and potentially threatens subalpine fir to the south in the central and southern Rocky Mountains. We developed a climatic risk model and map that predicts BWA impacts to subalpine fir using a two-step process. Using 30-year monthly climate normals from sites with quantitatively derived BWA damage severity index values, we built a regression model that significantly explained insect damage. The sites were grouped into two distinct damage categories (high damage and mortality versus little or no mortality and low damage) and the model estimates for each group were used to designate distinct value ranges for four climatic risk categories: minimal, low, moderate, and high. We then calculated model estimates for each cell of a 4-kilometer resolution climate raster and mapped the risk categories over the entire range of subalpine fir in the western United States. The spatial variation of risk classes indicates a gradient of climatic susceptibility generally decreasing from the Olympic Peninsula in Washington and the Cascade Range in Oregon and Washington moving eastward, with the exception of some high risk areas in northern Idaho and western Montana. There is also a pattern of decreasing climatic susceptibility from north to south in the Rocky Mountains. Our study provides an initial step for modeling the relationship between climate and BWA damage severity across the range of subalpine fir. We showed that September minimum temperature and a metric calculated as the maximum May temperature divided by total May precipitation were the best climatic predictors of BWA severity. Although winter cold temperatures and summer heat have been shown to influence BWA impacts in other locations, these

  14. Private adaptation strategies and implementation in flood risk management: why people do nothing?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karagiorgos, Konstantinos; Thaler, Thomas; Maris, Fotios; Paparrizos, Spyros; Fuchs, Sven

    2015-04-01

    implementation. This paper examines the private adaptation capacity and willingness in two different catchments in the Mediterranean. The catchments Evros and Rafina in Greece were affected by flood events during the past 20 years. However, even in case of extreme events, the vulnerability of the (social) system to stress is considerably low due to social networks, economic settings as well as institutional and political factors, and consequently the speed of return to the equilibrium steady state, defined as the prevailing livelihood conditions, is fast. In other words, even if the magnitude of a hazardous event is high, the vulnerability is considerably low due to multiple compensation mechanisms installed in the Greek society, ranging from spreading risk to a larger community to governmental compensation and private donation. Therefore, ex-post recovery following an event is well-organised, and the initial systems state is re-established immediately or with only little delay. Therefore, affected citizens simply do not care much about being affected by floods, will be able to prevent those damages. There are no incentives for the affected population to react pro-active by e.g. investing in local structural protection or any other management strategy. Key words: vulnerability; private adaptation; structural protection; risk management; floods; Greece References: Bohle H-G (2001) Vulnerability and criticality: Perspectives from social geography. IHDP Update 02/2001:3-5 Chambers R (1989) Vulnerability, coping and policy. IDS Bulletin 20 (2):1-7 Field CB, Barros V, Stocker TF, Dahe Q, Dokken DJ, Plattner G-K, Ebi KL, Allen SK, Mastrandrea MD, Tignor M, Mach KJ, Midgley PM (2012) Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation. Special report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge Fuchs S (2009) Susceptibility versus resilience to mountain hazards in Austria - Paradigms of vulnerability

  15. Uncertainty assessment of urban pluvial flood risk in a context of climate change adaptation decision making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Zhou, Qianqian

    2014-01-01

    uncertainty analysis, which can assess and quantify the overall uncertainty in relation to climate change adaptation to urban flash floods. The analysis is based on an uncertainty cascade that by means of Monte Carlo simulations of flood risk assessments incorporates climate change impacts as a key driver......There has been a significant increase in climatic extremes in many regions. In Central and Northern Europe, this has led to more frequent and more severe floods. Along with improved flood modelling technologies this has enabled development of economic assessment of climate change adaptation...... to increasing urban flood risk. Assessment of adaptation strategies often requires a comprehensive risk-based economic analysis of current risk, drivers of change of risk over time, and measures to reduce the risk. However, such studies are often associated with large uncertainties. The uncertainties arise from...

  16. Adaptation to flood risk: Results of international paired flood event studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kreibich, Heidi; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Vorogushyn, Sergiy

    2017-01-01

    studies, we find that lower damage caused by the second event was mainly due to significant reductions in vulnerability, for example, via raised risk awareness, preparedness, and improvements of organizational emergency management. Thus, vulnerability reduction plays an essential role for successful...

  17. Effectiveness of FDA's new over-the-counter acetaminophen warning label in improving consumer risk perception of liver damage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goyal, R K; Rajan, S S; Essien, E J; Sansgiry, S S

    2012-12-01

    The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) issued new organ-specific warning label requirements for over-the-counter (OTC) analgesic products in order to make consumers aware of the risk of liver damage when using acetaminophen. However, awareness of a health risk alone cannot ensure consumers' engagement in safe and preventive behaviour. In this study, we attempted to: (i) measure consumer risk perception of liver damage due to the OTC acetaminophen products and (ii) analyse the effectiveness of the new organ-specific warning label in improving consumer risk perception of liver damage and intention to perform protective behaviours while using OTC acetaminophen products. This within-subject experimental study used a convenience sample of English-speaking adults visiting OTC segments of selected pharmacy stores in Houston. Participants were randomly exposed to the old and new warning labels and their respective risk perception (measured on a visual analogue scale, 0%, no risk, to 100%, extreme risk) and behavioural intention (measured on a 7-point Likert scale) were recorded using a validated, self-administered questionnaire. Descriptive statistics and non-parametric Wilcoxon signed-rank tests were performed using sas statistical software (v 9.2) at a priori significance level of 0.05. Majority of participants (74.4%) were not aware of the new warnings; however, majority (67.8%) had prior knowledge of the risk. The mean risk perception score for the new warning label was found to be significantly higher (72.2% vs. 65.9%, P risk perception of potential liver damage and may encourage protective behaviour. However, future studies are essential to assess the impact of the new label on actual changes in consumer behaviour and subsequent reduction in acetaminophen-related morbidity and mortality. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  18. Framework for economic pluvial flood risk assessment considering climate change effects and adaptation benefits

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhou, Qianqian; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen; Halsnæs, Kirsten

    2012-01-01

    Climate change is likely to affect the water cycle by influencing the precipitation patterns. It is important to integrate the anticipated changes into the design of urban drainage in response to the increased risk level in cities. This paper presents a pluvial flood risk assessment framework...... to identify and assess adaptation options in the urban context. An integrated approach is adopted by incorporating climate change impact assessment, flood inundation modeling, economic tool, and risk assessment, hereby developing a step-by-step process for cost-benefit assessment of climate change adaptation...

  19. Application of crowdsourced hail data and damage information for hail risk assessment in the province of Styria, Austria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tani, Satyanarayana; Rechberger, Andreas; Süsser Rechberger, Barbara; Teschl, Reinhard; Paulitsch, Helmut

    2017-04-01

    Hail storm damage is a major concern to the farmers in the province of Styria, Austria. Each year severe hail storms are causing damages to crops, resulting in losses of millions of euros. High spatial and timely ground truth information of the hail event and crop damage measurements are essential for better hail risk assessment. Usually, hail pad networks and visual damage surveys are used to collect the hail data and corresponding damage information. However, these hail pad networks are expensive and need laborious maintenance. The traditional crop damage assessment approaches are very labour-intensive and time-consuming. The advancements in information and communication technology (ICT) and the power of citizen based crowdsourcing data, will help to overcome these problems and ultimately provide a platform for data collection. A user-friendly and bilingual web interface was developed to collect hail data and crop damage information in the province of Styria, Austria. The dynamic web interface was developed using HTML5, JavaScript, and PHP7 combined with a MySQL database back-end. OpenStreetMap was integrated into the web interface and tile server optimised for an easy identification of geolocation information. The user needs an internet connection to transfer the data through smartphone or computer. Crowdsourced data will be quality tested and evaluated with 3D single polarisation C-band weather radar data to remove potential false reports. Further, the relationship between the reported hail events and radar-based hail detection algorithms (Waldvogel and Auer) and derived hail signature information intended for crop hail risk assessment will be investigated. The details about the web interface tool, application and verification methods to collect, analyse, and integrate different data sets are given. Further, the high spatial risk assessment information is communicated to support risk management policy.

  20. An Adaptive Critic Approach to Reference Model Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krishnakumar, K.; Limes, G.; Gundy-Burlet, K.; Bryant, D.

    2003-01-01

    Neural networks have been successfully used for implementing control architectures for different applications. In this work, we examine a neural network augmented adaptive critic as a Level 2 intelligent controller for a C- 17 aircraft. This intelligent control architecture utilizes an adaptive critic to tune the parameters of a reference model, which is then used to define the angular rate command for a Level 1 intelligent controller. The present architecture is implemented on a high-fidelity non-linear model of a C-17 aircraft. The goal of this research is to improve the performance of the C-17 under degraded conditions such as control failures and battle damage. Pilot ratings using a motion based simulation facility are included in this paper. The benefits of using an adaptive critic are documented using time response comparisons for severe damage situations.

  1. Damage estimation of subterranean building constructions due to groundwater inundation – the GIS-based model approach GRUWAD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Schinke

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available The analysis and management of flood risk commonly focuses on surface water floods, because these types are often associated with high economic losses due to damage to buildings and settlements. The rising groundwater as a secondary effect of these floods induces additional damage, particularly in the basements of buildings. Mostly, these losses remain underestimated, because they are difficult to assess, especially for the entire building stock of flood-prone urban areas. For this purpose an appropriate methodology has been developed and lead to a groundwater damage simulation model named GRUWAD. The overall methodology combines various engineering and geoinformatic methods to calculate major damage processes by high groundwater levels. It considers a classification of buildings by building types, synthetic depth-damage functions for groundwater inundation as well as the results of a groundwater-flow model. The modular structure of this procedure can be adapted in the level of detail. Hence, the model allows damage calculations from the local to the regional scale. Among others it can be used to prepare risk maps, for ex-ante analysis of future risks, and to simulate the effects of mitigation measures. Therefore, the model is a multifarious tool for determining urban resilience with respect to high groundwater levels.

  2. Economic estimation of risk and compensation of damage from accidents in power engineering objects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lesnykh, V.V.

    1996-01-01

    Place and basic peculiarities of the task relative to compensation of damage due to accidents in the problem on technical-economical studies of the power engineering objects, including NPPs, are analyzed. Certain approaches in the task of the risk economical estimates and basic provisions of the economical damage compensation system are presented. Description of imitated and analytical approach in the task of estimating financial state is given and certain study results are presented. 11 refs., 8 figs

  3. Smallholder farmers’ attitudes and determinants of adaptation to climate risks in East Africa

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Shikuku, Kelvin M.; Winowiecki, Leigh; Twyman, Jennifer; Eitzinger, Anton; Perez, Juan G.; Mwongera, Caroline; Läderach, Peter

    2017-01-01

    Adapting to climate risks is central to the goal of increasing food security and enhancing resilience of farming systems in East Africa. We examined farmers’ attitudes and assessed determinants of adaptation using data from a random sample of 500 households in Borana, Ethiopia; Nyando, Kenya;

  4. Science-policy interface in transformative adaptive flood risk management - decision-making in Austria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thaler, Thomas; Attems, Marie-Sophie; Rauter, Magdalena; Fuchs, Sven

    2016-04-01

    Facing the challenges of climate change, this paper aims to analyse and to evaluate the multiple use of flood alleviation schemes with respect to social transformation in communities exposed to flood hazards in Europe. The overall goals are: (1) the identification of indicators and parameters necessary for strategies to increase societal resilience, (2) an analysis of the institutional settings needed for societal transformation, and (3) perspectives of changing divisions of responsibilities between public and private actors necessary to arrive at more resilient societies. As such, governance is done by people interacting and defining risk mitigation measures as well as climate change adaptation are therefore simultaneously both outcomes of, and productive to, public and private responsibilities. Building off current knowledge this paper focussed on different dimensions of adaptation and mitigation strategies based on social, economic and institutional incentives and settings, centring on the linkages between these different dimensions and complementing existing flood risk governance arrangements. As such, the challenges of adaptation to flood risk will be tackled by converting scientific frameworks into practical assessment and policy advice. This paper used the Formative Scenario Analysis (FSA) as a method to construct well-defined sets of assumptions to gain insight into a system and its potential future development, based on qualitatively assessed impact factors and rated quantitative relations between these factors, such as impact and consistency analysis. The purpose of this approach was to develop scenarios, where participations develop their own strategies how to implement a transformative adaptation strategy in flood risk management. In particular, the interaction between researcher, the public and policy makers was analysed. Challenges and limitations were assessed, such as benefits on costs of adaptation measures, for the implementation of visions to

  5. Omics Approaches for Identifying Physiological Adaptations to Genome Instability in Aging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edifizi, Diletta; Schumacher, Björn

    2017-11-04

    DNA damage causally contributes to aging and age-related diseases. The declining functioning of tissues and organs during aging can lead to the increased risk of succumbing to aging-associated diseases. Congenital syndromes that are caused by heritable mutations in DNA repair pathways lead to cancer susceptibility and accelerated aging, thus underlining the importance of genome maintenance for withstanding aging. High-throughput mass-spectrometry-based approaches have recently contributed to identifying signalling response networks and gaining a more comprehensive understanding of the physiological adaptations occurring upon unrepaired DNA damage. The insulin-like signalling pathway has been implicated in a DNA damage response (DDR) network that includes epidermal growth factor (EGF)-, AMP-activated protein kinases (AMPK)- and the target of rapamycin (TOR)-like signalling pathways, which are known regulators of growth, metabolism, and stress responses. The same pathways, together with the autophagy-mediated proteostatic response and the decline in energy metabolism have also been found to be similarly regulated during natural aging, suggesting striking parallels in the physiological adaptation upon persistent DNA damage due to DNA repair defects and long-term low-level DNA damage accumulation occurring during natural aging. These insights will be an important starting point to study the interplay between signalling networks involved in progeroid syndromes that are caused by DNA repair deficiencies and to gain new understanding of the consequences of DNA damage in the aging process.

  6. Beyond risk and protective factors: An adaptation-based approach to resilience

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ellis, B.J.; Bianchi, J.G.; Griskevicius, V.; Frankenhuis, W.E.

    2017-01-01

    How does repeated or chronic childhood adversity shape social and cognitive abilities? According to the prevailing deficit model, children from high-stress backgrounds are at risk for impairments in learning and behavior, and the intervention goal is to prevent, reduce, or repair the damage. Missing

  7. Urban seismic risk assessment: statistical repair cost data and probable structural losses based on damage scenario—correlation analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eleftheriadou, Anastasia K.; Baltzopoulou, Aikaterini D.; Karabinis, Athanasios I.

    2016-06-01

    The current seismic risk assessment is based on two discrete approaches, actual and probable, validating afterwards the produced results. In the first part of this research, the seismic risk is evaluated from the available data regarding the mean statistical repair/strengthening or replacement cost for the total number of damaged structures (180,427 buildings) after the 7/9/1999 Parnitha (Athens) earthquake. The actual evaluated seismic risk is afterwards compared to the estimated probable structural losses, which is presented in the second part of the paper, based on a damage scenario in the referring earthquake. The applied damage scenario is based on recently developed damage probability matrices (DPMs) from Athens (Greece) damage database. The seismic risk estimation refers to 750,085 buildings situated in the extended urban region of Athens. The building exposure is categorized in five typical structural types and represents 18.80 % of the entire building stock in Greece. The last information is provided by the National Statistics Service of Greece (NSSG) according to the 2000-2001 census. The seismic input is characterized by the ratio, a g/ a o, where a g is the regional peak ground acceleration (PGA) which is evaluated from the earlier estimated research macroseismic intensities, and a o is the PGA according to the hazard map of the 2003 Greek Seismic Code. Finally, the collected investigated financial data derived from different National Services responsible for the post-earthquake crisis management concerning the repair/strengthening or replacement costs or other categories of costs for the rehabilitation of earthquake victims (construction and function of settlements for earthquake homeless, rent supports, demolitions, shorings) are used to determine the final total seismic risk factor.

  8. Adaptation to Sea Level Rise: A Multidisciplinary Analysis for Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scussolini, Paolo; Tran, Thi Van Thu; Koks, Elco; Diaz-Loaiza, Andres; Ho, Phi Long; Lasage, Ralph

    2017-12-01

    One of the most critical impacts of sea level rise is that flooding suffered by ever larger settlements in tropical deltas will increase. Here we look at Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, and quantify the threats that coastal floods pose to safety and to the economy. For this, we produce flood maps through hydrodynamic modeling and, by combining these with data sets of exposure and vulnerability, we estimate two indicators of risk: the damage to assets and the number of potential casualties. We simulate current and future (2050 and 2100) flood risk using IPCC scenarios of sea level rise and socioeconomic change. We find that annual damage may grow by more than 1 order of magnitude, and potential casualties may grow 5-20-fold until the end of the century, in the absence of adaptation. Impacts depend strongly on the climate and socioeconomic scenarios considered. Next, we simulate the implementation of adaptation measures and calculate their effectiveness in reducing impacts. We find that a ring dike would protect the inner city but increase risk in more rural districts, whereas elevating areas at risk and dryproofing buildings will reduce impacts to the city as a whole. Most measures perform well from an economic standpoint. Combinations of measures seem to be the optimal solution and may address potential equity conflicts. Based on our results, we design possible adaptation pathways for Ho Chi Minh City for the coming decades; these can inform policy-making and strategic thinking.

  9. Climate Change Risks – Methodological Framework and Case Study of Damages from Extreme Events in Cambodia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Halsnæs, Kirsten; Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Trærup, Sara Lærke Meltofte

    2016-01-01

    Climate change imposes some special risks on Least Developed Countries, and the chapter presents a methodological framework, which can be used to assess the impacts of key assumptions related to damage costs, risks and equity implications on current and future generations. The methodological...... framework is applied to a case study of severe storms in Cambodia based on statistical information on past storm events including information about buildings damaged and victims. Despite there is limited data available on the probability of severe storm events under climate change as well on the actual...... damage costs associated with the events in the case of Cambodia, we are using the past storm events as proxy data in a sensitivity analysis. It is here demonstrated how key assumptions on future climate change, income levels of victims, and income distribution over time, reflected in discount rates...

  10. A comparative review of multi-risk modelling methodologies for climate change adaptation in mountain regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terzi, Stefano; Torresan, Silvia; Schneiderbauer, Stefan

    2017-04-01

    Keywords: Climate change, mountain regions, multi-risk assessment, climate change adaptation. Climate change has already led to a wide range of impacts on the environment, the economy and society. Adaptation actions are needed to cope with the impacts that have already occurred (e.g. storms, glaciers melting, floods, droughts) and to prepare for future scenarios of climate change. Mountain environment is particularly vulnerable to the climate changes due to its exposure to recent climate warming (e.g. water regime changes, thawing of permafrost) and due to the high degree of specialization of both natural and human systems (e.g. alpine species, valley population density, tourism-based economy). As a consequence, the mountain local governments are encouraged to undertake territorial governance policies to climate change, considering multi-risks and opportunities for the mountain economy and identifying the best portfolio of adaptation strategies. This study aims to provide a literature review of available qualitative and quantitative tools, methodological guidelines and best practices to conduct multi-risk assessments in the mountain environment within the context of climate change. We analyzed multi-risk modelling and assessment methods applied in alpine regions (e.g. event trees, Bayesian Networks, Agent Based Models) in order to identify key concepts (exposure, resilience, vulnerability, risk, adaptive capacity), climatic drivers, cause-effect relationships and socio-ecological systems to be integrated in a comprehensive framework. The main outcomes of the review, including a comparison of existing techniques based on different criteria (e.g. scale of analysis, targeted questions, level of complexity) and a snapshot of the developed multi-risk framework for climate change adaptation will be here presented and discussed.

  11. Facilitators and Challenges in Psychosocial Adaptation to Being at Increased Familial Risk of Breast Cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heiniger, Louise; Price, Melanie A; Charles, Margaret; Butow, Phyllis N

    2015-12-01

    Little is known about the process of psychosocial adaptation to familial risk in tested and untested individuals at increased familial risk of cancer. This paper presents findings from a qualitative study of 36 women participating in the Kathleen Cuningham Consortium for Research into Familial Breast cancer (kConFab) Psychosocial study. Facilitators and challenges in psychosocial adaptation were identified through semi-structured interviews. The women, who were either tested (carriers or non-carriers of breast cancer susceptibility mutations) or untested (ineligible for testing or eligible but delayed or declined testing), described personal, support network and healthcare characteristics that impacted on the adaptation process. Challenges in one domain could be overcome by facilitators in other domains and key differences relating to whether women had undergone testing, or not, were identified. Tested and untested women with an increased familial risk of breast cancer may benefit from support tailored to their mutation testing status in order to enhance adaptation.

  12. Guidelines for the adaptation to floods in changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doroszkiewicz, Joanna; Romanowicz, Renata J.

    2017-08-01

    A decrease of flood damages in the future requires not only adaptation to flood caused by present day climate, but also climate change effects on floods should be taken into account. The paper illustrates the need to take into account changing climate conditions in flood adaptation strategies and to apply in practice the concept of integrated water resource management (IWRM). IWRM is based on a number of policy instruments, economic instruments, political signals, and also, on the effects of climate change on floods and collaboration across national, regional and local administrative units. The guidelines for a country adaptation to floods in a changing climate are outlined. A comparison of the adaptive capacities in Poland and Norway is used to illustrate the need for the implementation of proposed guidelines to assure flood risk management under climate change in a sustainable way.

  13. Impact-Induced Muscle Damage and Contact-Sport: Aetiology, Effects on Neuromuscular Function and Recovery, and the Modulating Effects of Adaptation and Recovery Strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naughton, Mitchell; Miller, Joanna; Slater, Gary J

    2017-11-28

    Athletes involved in contact-sports are habitually exposed to skeletal muscle damage as part of their training and performance environments. This often leads to exercise-induced muscle damage (EIMD) resulting from repeated eccentric and/or high-intensity exercise, and impact-induced muscle damage (IIMD) resulting from collisions with opponents and the playing surface. Whilst EIMD has been an area of extensive investigation, IIMD has received comparatively little research, with the magnitude and timeframe of alterations following IIMD not presently well understood. It is currently thought that EIMD occurs through an overload of mechanical stress causing ultrastructural damage to the cellular membrane constituents. Damage leads to compromised ability to produce force which manifest immediately and persist for up to 14 days following exercise exposure. IIMD has been implicated in attenuated neuromuscular performance and recovery with inflammatory process implicated, although the underlying time course remains unclear. Exposure to EIMD leads to an adaptation to subsequent exposures, a phenomenon known as the repeated-bout effect. An analogous adaptation has been suggested to occur following IIMD, however, to date this contention remains equivocal. Whilst a considerable body of research has explored the efficacy of recovery strategies following EIMD, strategies promoting recovery from IIMD are limited to investigations using animal contusion models. Strategies such as cryotherapy and antioxidant supplementation, which focus on attenuating the secondary inflammatory response may provide additional benefit in IIMD and are explored herein. Further research is required to firstly establish a model of generating IIMD and then explore broader areas around IIMD in athletic populations.

  14. Managing Climate Risk. Integrating Adaptation into World Bank Group Operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Aalst, M.

    2006-08-01

    Climate change is already taking place, and further changes are inevitable. Developing countries, and particularly the poorest people in these countries, are most at risk. The impacts result not only from gradual changes in temperature and sea level but also, in particular, from increased climate variability and extremes, including more intense floods, droughts, and storms. These changes are already having major impacts on the economic performance of developing countries and on the lives and livelihoods of millions of poor people around the world. Climate change thus directly affects the World Bank Group's mission of eradicating poverty. It also puts at risk many projects in a wide range of sectors, including infrastructure, agriculture, human health, water resources, and environment. The risks include physical threats to the investments, potential underperformance, and the possibility that projects will indirectly contribute to rising vulnerability by, for example, triggering investment and settlement in high-risk areas. The way to address these concerns is not to separate climate change adaptation from other priorities but to integrate comprehensive climate risk management into development planning, programs, and projects. While there is a great need to heighten awareness of climate risk in Bank work, a large body of experience on climate risk management is already available, in analytical work, in country dialogues, and in a growing number of investment projects. This operational experience highlights the general ingredients for successful integration of climate risk management into the mainstream development agenda: getting the right sectoral departments and senior policy makers involved; incorporating risk management into economic planning; engaging a wide range of nongovernmental actors (businesses, nongovernmental organizations, communities, and so on); giving attention to regulatory issues; and choosing strategies that will pay off immediately under current

  15. A Study of Disaster Adaptation Behavior and Risk Communication for watershed Area Resident - the Case of Kaoping River Watershed in Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Te Pai, Jen; Chen, Yu-Yun; Huang, Kuan-Hua

    2016-04-01

    Along with the global climate change, the rainfall patterns become more centralized and cause natural disasters more frequently and heavily. Residents in river watersheds area are facing high risk of natural disasters and severe impacts, especially in Taiwan. From the experience of Typhoon Morakot in 2009, we learned that poor risk communication between the governments and the households and communities would lead to tremendous loss of property and life. Effective risk communication can trigger action to impending and current events. On the other hand, it can also build up knowledge on hazards and risks and encourage adaptation behaviors. Through the participation and cooperation of different stakeholders in disaster management, can reduce vulnerability, enhance adaptive capacity, improve the interaction between different stakeholders and also avoid conflicts. However, in Taiwan there are few studies about how households and communities perceive flood disaster risks, the process of risk communications between governments and households, or the relationship between risk communication and adaptation behaviors. Therefore, this study takes household and community of Kaoping River Watershed as study area. It aims to identify important factors in the process of disaster risk communication and find out the relationship between risk communication and adaptation behaviors. A framework of risk communication process was established to describe how to trigger adaptation behaviors and encourage adaptation behaviors with risk communication strategies. An ISM model was utilized to verify the framework by using household questionnaire survey. Moreover, a logit choice model was build to test the important factors for effective risk communication and adaption behavior. The result of this study would provide governments or relevant institutions suggestions about risk communication strategies and adaptation strategies to enhance the adaptive capacity of households and reduce the

  16. Climate Science and the Responsibilities of Fossil Fuel Companies for Climate Damages and Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frumhoff, P. C.; Ekwurzel, B.

    2017-12-01

    Policymakers in several jurisdictions are now considering whether fossil fuel companies might bear some legal responsibility for climate damages and the costs of adaptation to climate change potentially traceable to the emissions from their marketed products. Here, we explore how scientific research, outreach and direct engagement with industry leaders and shareholders have informed and may continue to inform such developments. We present the results of new climate model research quantifying the contribution of carbon dioxide and methane emissions traced to individual fossil fuel companies to changes in global temperature and sea level; explore the impact of such research and outreach on both legal and broader societal consideration of company responsibility; and discuss the opportunities and challenges for scientists to engage in further work in this area.

  17. Electricity and risk of public health center had measles vaccine damage in Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anggita Bunga Anggraini

    2016-03-01

    related to PHC hadmeasles damage vaccines.Methods: The analysis used a part of the data of Research Health Facilities (Rifaskes in 2011. The Rifaskeswas conducted in all health centers in all (33 provinces in Indonesia. Furthermore, this analysis uses dataonly health center in the province who have measles immunization coverage the national prevalence rate(81.6% or more, and health centers that have measles prevalence rate above the national prevalence rate(1.18% or more. Statistical data analysis performed using logistic regression analysis to determine someof the risk factors related to the health center had has measles vaccine damaged.Results: A number of 7 provinces (Riau, Jakarta, West Nusa Tenggara, East Nusa Tenggara, CentralSulawesi, South Sulawesi, Gorontalo with 1259 PHC met the inclusion criteria. Health centers locatedin rural areas compared with urban areas had 3.4-fold risk of a PHC that had measles damage vaccines[adjusted odds ratio (ORa = 3.37; 95% confidence interval (CI = 1.34 - 8.26]. Furthermore, the healthcenter with the availability of the electricity for less than 24 hours compared with available 24 hours had2.1-fold risk of PHC that had measles damage vaccines (ORa = 2.10; 95% CI = 1.02 - 4.33.Conclusion: Public health center in rural areas, or did not have not have commercial electric power, ordid not have the availability of day-to-day electricity less than 24 hours had more risk of a PHC that hadmeasles damage vaccines. (Health Science Journal of Indonesia 2015;6:116-20Keywords: measles, public health center, vaccine

  18. Risk-adapted monitoring is not inferior to extensive on-site monitoring: Results of the ADAMON cluster-randomised study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brosteanu, Oana; Schwarz, Gabriele; Houben, Peggy; Paulus, Ursula; Strenge-Hesse, Anke; Zettelmeyer, Ulrike; Schneider, Anja; Hasenclever, Dirk

    2017-12-01

    Background According to Good Clinical Practice, clinical trials must protect rights and safety of patients and make sure that the trial results are valid and interpretable. Monitoring on-site has an important role in achieving these objectives; it controls trial conduct at trial sites and informs the sponsor on systematic problems. In the past, extensive on-site monitoring with a particular focus on formal source data verification often lost sight of systematic problems in study procedures that endanger Good Clinical Practice objectives. ADAMON is a prospective, stratified, cluster-randomised, controlled study comparing extensive on-site monitoring with risk-adapted monitoring according to a previously published approach. Methods In all, 213 sites from 11 academic trials were cluster-randomised between extensive on-site monitoring (104) and risk-adapted monitoring (109). Independent post-trial audits using structured manuals were performed to determine the frequency of major Good Clinical Practice findings at the patient level. The primary outcome measure is the proportion of audited patients with at least one major audit finding. Analysis relies on logistic regression incorporating trial and monitoring arm as fixed effects and site as random effect. The hypothesis was that risk-adapted monitoring is non-inferior to extensive on-site monitoring with a non-inferiority margin of 0.60 (logit scale). Results Average number of monitoring visits and time spent on-site was 2.1 and 2.7 times higher in extensive on-site monitoring than in risk-adapted monitoring, respectively. A total of 156 (extensive on-site monitoring: 76; risk-adapted monitoring: 80) sites were audited. In 996 of 1618 audited patients, a total of 2456 major audit findings were documented. Depending on the trial, findings were identified in 18%-99% of the audited patients, with no marked monitoring effect in any of the trials. The estimated monitoring effect is -0.04 on the logit scale with two-sided 95

  19. A resilience perspective to water risk management: case-study application of the adaptation tipping point method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gersonius, Berry; Ashley, Richard; Jeuken, Ad; Nasruddin, Fauzy; Pathirana, Assela; Zevenbergen, Chris

    2010-05-01

    In a context of high uncertainty about hydrological variables due to climate change and other factors, the development of updated risk management approaches is as important as—if not more important than—the provision of improved data and forecasts of the future. Traditional approaches to adaptation attempt to manage future water risks to cities with the use of the predict-then-adapt method. This method uses hydrological change projections as the starting point to identify adaptive strategies, which is followed by analysing the cause-effect chain based on some sort of Pressures-State-Impact-Response (PSIR) scheme. The predict-then-adapt method presumes that it is possible to define a singular (optimal) adaptive strategy according to a most likely or average projection of future change. A key shortcoming of the method is, however, that the planning of water management structures is typically decoupled from forecast uncertainties and is, as such, inherently inflexible. This means that there is an increased risk of under- or over-adaptation, resulting in either mal-functioning or unnecessary costs. Rather than taking a traditional approach, responsible water risk management requires an alternative approach to adaptation that recognises and cultivates resiliency for change. The concept of resiliency relates to the capability of complex socio-technical systems to make aspirational levels of functioning attainable despite the occurrence of possible changes. Focusing on resiliency does not attempt to reduce uncertainty associated with future change, but rather to develop better ways of managing it. This makes it a particularly relevant perspective for adaptation to long-term hydrological change. Although resiliency is becoming more refined as a theory, the application of the concept to water risk management is still in an initial phase. Different methods are used in practice to support the implementation of a resilience-focused approach. Typically these approaches

  20. Urban drainage design and climate change adaptation decision making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Qianqian Zhou

    2012-10-15

    The emphasis of this PhD thesis is flood protection in the context of pluvial flooding by investigating new principles and approaches for assessment of urban drainage adaptation measures under climate change impacts. The thesis describes a new framework for design and analysis of urban drainage that accurately assesses hazards and vulnerabilities of urban areas and quantifies the present and future risks based on projections of climate change and city development. Furthermore, this framework can be utilized to identify cost-effective measures that can reduce the overall flood risk to an acceptable level considering both costs and benefits of adaptation. The framework is mainly based on a utilitarian approach that studies urban drainage adaptation solutions from a socio-economic point of view. The methodologies involve the state-of-the-art flood inundation modelling, risk assessment tools, socio-economic analysis tools, city planning, and uncertainty analysis. The thesis has explored several limitations of the current design practice of urban drainage. To further supplement and develop the common practice, a systemic and integrated framework is proposed by incorporating three research areas: (i) risk-based economic approaches for assessment of climate adaptation design, (ii) uncertainty analysis of climate adaptation assessment and (iii) reframing the assessment approaches by incorporating additional benefits and costs of adaptation alternatives. To strategically provide a functional performance of urban drainage systems, a risk-based economic approach is developed to take into account the impacts of all probable floods in terms of their probabilities and consequences (e.g. extents of floods, costing of damage). It is found that this approach contributes to a better understanding of the contributions of different return periods/flood events to the overall risk under both current and future climatic conditions and therefore can be used as guidance for further

  1. Patellofemoral Instability in Children: Correlation Between Risk Factors, Injury Patterns, and Severity of Cartilage Damage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Hee Kyung; Shiraj, Sahar; Kang, Chang Ho; Anton, Christopher; Kim, Dong Hoon; Horn, Paul S

    2016-06-01

    The purpose of this study was to compare MRI findings between groups with and without patellofemoral instability and to correlate the MRI findings with the severity of patellar cartilage damage. Fifty-three children with patellofemoral instability and 53 age- and sex-matched children without patellofemoral instability (15.9 ± 2.4 years) were included. Knee MRI with T2-weighted mapping was performed. On MR images, femoral trochlear dysplasia, patellofemoral malalignment, medial retinaculum injury, and bone marrow edema were documented. The degree of patellar cartilage damage was evaluated on MR images by use of a morphologic grading scale (0-4) and on T2 maps with mean T2 values at the medial, central, and lateral facets. MRI findings were compared between the two groups. In cases of patellofemoral instability, MRI findings were correlated with the severity of cartilage damage at each region. Trochlear structure and alignment were significantly different between the two groups (Wilcoxon p patellofemoral instability, a high-riding patella was associated with central patellar cartilage damage with a higher morphologic grade and T2 value (Spearman p patellofemoral instability have significantly different trochlear structure and alignment than those who do not, and these differences are known risk factors for patellofemoral instability. However, the only risk factors or injury patterns that directly correlated with the severity of patellar cartilage damage were patella alta, medial stabilizer injury, and bone marrow edema.

  2. Overview of the risk management approach to adaptation to climate change in Canada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Noble, D.; Bruce, J.; Egener, M.

    2005-03-01

    Climate change poses risks related to frequent and extreme weather events, changes in water availability and changes in the performance of infrastructure systems. Risk management offers a decision-making framework to assist in the selection of optimal or cost-effective strategies using a systematic public process. Risks related to climate change are a new type of risk and are increasingly of concern for governments and citizens around the world. An introduction to risk-based approaches to climate change adaptation decision-making in Canada was presented in this paper. Steps in the risk management process were presented. Risk management approaches from various countries were reviewed, including the Canadian Standards Association's (CSA) national risk management guideline; the Government of Canada's Integrated Risk Management Framework; the Caribbean Risk Management Guideline; World Bank risk management strategies for adaptation to climate change; and the United Kingdom Climate Impacts Program. Details of a study conducted by the United Kingdom Department for Environment, Food, and Rural Affairs to explore the implications of climate change were also presented. Vulnerabilities of response mechanisms to climate change and the interrelations of public systems were reviewed. Issues concerning infrastructure renewal and development were examined, as well as emergency planning and management strategies. It was concluded that the development of training materials and tools for decision-makers in Canada is needed. A climate change risk management planning guidebook was proposed. refs., tabs., figs

  3. Age and metabolic risk factors associated with oxidatively damaged DNA in human peripheral blood mononuclear cells

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Løhr, Mille; Jensen, Annie; Eriksen, Louise

    2015-01-01

    Aging is associated with oxidative stress-generated damage to DNA and this could be related to metabolic disturbances. This study investigated the association between levels of oxidatively damaged DNA in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) and metabolic risk factors in 1,019 subjects, aged...... 18-93 years. DNA damage was analyzed as strand breaks by the comet assay and levels of formamidopyrimidine (FPG-) and human 8-oxoguanine DNA glycosylase 1 (hOGG1)-sensitive sites There was an association between age and levels of FPG-sensitive sites for women, but not for men. The same tendency......, cholesterol and glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c). In the group of men, there were significant positive associations between alcohol intake, HbA1c and FPG-sensitive sites in multivariate analysis. The levels of metabolic risk factors were positively associated with age, yet only few subjects fulfilled all...

  4. Risk assessment of maize damage by wireworms (Coleoptera: Elateridae) as the first step in implementing IPM and in reducing the environmental impact of soil insecticides.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Furlan, L; Contiero, B; Chiarini, F; Colauzzi, M; Sartori, E; Benvegnù, I; Fracasso, F; Giandon, P

    2017-01-01

    A survey of maize fields was conducted in northeast Italy from 1986 to 2014, resulting in a dataset of 1296 records including information on wireworm damage to maize, plant-attacking species, agronomic characteristics, landscape and climate. Three wireworm species, Agriotes brevis Candeze, A. sordidus Illiger and A. ustulatus Schäller, were identified as the dominant pest species in maize fields. Over the 29-year period surveyed, no yield reduction was observed when wireworm plant damage was below 15 % of the stand. A preliminary univariate analysis of risk assessment was applied to identify the main factors influencing the occurrence of damage. A multifactorial model was then applied by using the significant factors identified. This model allowed the research to highlight the strongest factors and to analyse how the main factors together influenced damage risk. The strongest factors were: A. brevis as prevalent damaging species, soil organic matter content >5 %, rotation including meadows and/or double crops, A. sordidus as prevalent damaging species, and surrounding landscape mainly meadows, uncultivated grass and double crops. The multifactorial model also showed how the simultaneous occurrence of two or more of the aforementioned risk factors can conspicuously increase the risk of wireworm damage to maize crops, while the probability of damage to a field with no-risk factors is always low (<1 %). These results make it possible to draw risk maps to identify low-risk and high-risk areas, a first step in implementing bespoke IPM procedures in an attempt to reduce the impact of soil insecticides significantly.

  5. Better predictions, better allocations: scientific advances and adaptation to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freeman, Mark C; Groom, Ben; Zeckhauser, Richard J

    2015-11-28

    Climate science initially aspired to improve understanding of what the future would bring, and thereby produce appropriate public policies and effective international climate agreements. If that hope is dashed, as now seems probable, effective policies for adapting to climate change become critical. Climate science assumes new responsibilities by helping to foster more appropriate adaptation measures, which might include shifting modes or locales of production. This theoretical article focuses on two broader tools: consumption smoothing in response to the risk of future losses, and physical adaptation measures to reduce potential damages. It shows that informative signals on the effects of climate change facilitate better decisions on the use of each tool, thereby increasing social welfare. © 2015 The Author(s).

  6. Promoting private sector engagement in climate change adaptation and flood resilience: A case study of innovative approaches applied by MSMEs in Mumbai, India

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schaer, Caroline; Pantakar, Archana

    2018-01-01

    of maladaptation. As climate change is expected to worsen the risk of flash floods with changes in intensity, frequency and duration of rainfall, MSMEs need long-term solutions to build their adaptive capacity and resilience. This paper describes the business case for private sector engagement in flood risk...... reduction and climate adaptation from the perspective of MSMEs in Mumbai. Based on extensive field surveys of MSMEs located in industrial estates, the paper discusses the implications of floods for MSMEs. Moreover, the authors present a framework developed for MSMEs to make informed risk reduction......Recurring heavy precipitation and flooding cause extensive loss and damage in cities like Mumbai. Among the worst affected are Micro Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) which suffer damage to physical structure and loss of business. These costs amount to millions of dollars and are borne by MSMEs...

  7. Flood risk in a changing world - a coupled transdisciplinary modelling framework for flood risk assessment in an Alpine study area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huttenlau, Matthias; Schneeberger, Klaus; Winter, Benjamin; Pazur, Robert; Förster, Kristian; Achleitner, Stefan; Bolliger, Janine

    2017-04-01

    Devastating flood events have caused substantial economic damage across Europe during past decades. Flood risk management has therefore become a topic of crucial interest across state agencies, research communities and the public sector including insurances. There is consensus that mitigating flood risk relies on impact assessments which quantitatively account for a broad range of aspects in a (changing) environment. Flood risk assessments which take into account the interaction between the drivers climate change, land-use change and socio-economic change might bring new insights to the understanding of the magnitude and spatial characteristic of flood risks. Furthermore, the comparative assessment of different adaptation measures can give valuable information for decision-making. With this contribution we present an inter- and transdisciplinary research project aiming at developing and applying such an impact assessment relying on a coupled modelling framework for the Province of Vorarlberg in Austria. Stakeholder engagement ensures that the final outcomes of our study are accepted and successfully implemented in flood management practice. The study addresses three key questions: (i) What are scenarios of land- use and climate change for the study area? (ii) How will the magnitude and spatial characteristic of future flood risk change as a result of changes in climate and land use? (iii) Are there spatial planning and building-protection measures which effectively reduce future flood risk? The modelling framework has a modular structure comprising modules (i) climate change, (ii) land-use change, (iii) hydrologic modelling, (iv) flood risk analysis, and (v) adaptation measures. Meteorological time series are coupled with spatially explicit scenarios of land-use change to model runoff time series. The runoff time series are combined with impact indicators such as building damages and results are statistically assessed to analyse flood risk scenarios. Thus, the

  8. Omics Approaches for Identifying Physiological Adaptations to Genome Instability in Aging

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diletta Edifizi

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available DNA damage causally contributes to aging and age-related diseases. The declining functioning of tissues and organs during aging can lead to the increased risk of succumbing to aging-associated diseases. Congenital syndromes that are caused by heritable mutations in DNA repair pathways lead to cancer susceptibility and accelerated aging, thus underlining the importance of genome maintenance for withstanding aging. High-throughput mass-spectrometry-based approaches have recently contributed to identifying signalling response networks and gaining a more comprehensive understanding of the physiological adaptations occurring upon unrepaired DNA damage. The insulin-like signalling pathway has been implicated in a DNA damage response (DDR network that includes epidermal growth factor (EGF-, AMP-activated protein kinases (AMPK- and the target of rapamycin (TOR-like signalling pathways, which are known regulators of growth, metabolism, and stress responses. The same pathways, together with the autophagy-mediated proteostatic response and the decline in energy metabolism have also been found to be similarly regulated during natural aging, suggesting striking parallels in the physiological adaptation upon persistent DNA damage due to DNA repair defects and long-term low-level DNA damage accumulation occurring during natural aging. These insights will be an important starting point to study the interplay between signalling networks involved in progeroid syndromes that are caused by DNA repair deficiencies and to gain new understanding of the consequences of DNA damage in the aging process.

  9. Adaptation to climate change related risks in Dutch urban areas: stimuli and barriers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Runhaar, H.A.C.; Mees, H.L.P.; Wardekker, J.A.; Sluijs, J.P. van der; Driessen, P.P.J.

    Climate change is associated with various risks, such as flooding and heat stress. So far, most research has concentrated on the identification and quantification of these risks as well as the development of adaptation measures. Yet much less is known about how planners actually perceive and deal

  10. The effectiveness of coral reefs for coastal hazard risk reduction and adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrario, Filippo; Beck, Michael W.; Storlazzi, Curt D.; Micheli, Fiorenza; Shepard, Christine C.; Airoldi, Laura

    2014-01-01

    The world’s coastal zones are experiencing rapid development and an increase in storms and flooding. These hazards put coastal communities at heightened risk, which may increase with habitat loss. Here we analyse globally the role and cost effectiveness of coral reefs in risk reduction. Meta-analyses reveal that coral reefs provide substantial protection against natural hazards by reducing wave energy by an average of 97%. Reef crests alone dissipate most of this energy (86%). There are 100 million or more people who may receive risk reduction benefits from reefs or bear hazard mitigation and adaptation costs if reefs are degraded. We show that coral reefs can provide comparable wave attenuation benefits to artificial defences such as breakwaters, and reef defences can be enhanced cost effectively. Reefs face growing threats yet there is opportunity to guide adaptation and hazard mitigation investments towards reef restoration to strengthen this first line of coastal defence.

  11. Managers facing the climatic risks; Les elus face aux risques climatiques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2003-07-01

    This colloquium aimed to analyze the relations between the climatic changes and extreme meteorological events and on the associated risks. It provides information and knowledge on the state of the art concerning the today scientific knowledge, the prevention measures and the adaptation facing the risks and the difficult estimation of the climatic damages costs. (A.L.B.)

  12. Using an extended 2D hydrodynamic model for evaluating damage risk caused by extreme rain events: Flash-Flood-Risk-Map (FFRM) Upper Austria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Humer, Günter; Reithofer, Andreas

    2016-04-01

    Using an extended 2D hydrodynamic model for evaluating damage risk caused by extreme rain events: Flash-Flood-Risk-Map (FFRM) Upper Austria Considering the increase in flash flood events causing massive damage during the last years in urban but also rural areas [1-4], the requirement for hydrodynamic calculation of flash flood prone areas and possible countermeasures has arisen to many municipalities and local governments. Besides the German based URBAS project [1], also the EU-funded FP7 research project "SWITCH-ON" [5] addresses the damage risk caused by flash floods in the sub-project "FFRM" (Flash Flood Risk Map Upper Austria) by calculating damage risk for buildings and vulnerable infrastructure like schools and hospitals caused by flash-flood driven inundation. While danger zones in riverine flooding are established as an integral part of spatial planning, flash floods caused by overland runoff from extreme rain events have been for long an underrated safety hazard not only for buildings and infrastructure, but man and animals as well. Based on the widespread 2D-model "hydro_as-2D", an extension was developed, which calculates the runoff formation from a spatially and temporally variable precipitation and determines two dimensionally the land surface area runoff and its concentration. The conception of the model is to preprocess the precipitation data and calculate the effective runoff-volume for a short time step of e.g. five minutes. This volume is applied to the nodes of the 2D-model and the calculation of the hydrodynamic model is started. At the end of each time step, the model run is stopped, the preprocessing step is repeated and the hydraulic model calculation is continued. In view of the later use for the whole of Upper Austria (12.000 km²) a model grid of 25x25 m² was established using digital elevation data. Model parameters could be estimated for the small catchment of river Ach, which was hit by an intense rain event with up to 109 mm per hour

  13. City of Iqaluit's climate change impacts, infrastructure risks and adaptive capacity project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nielsen, D.; Kronenberger, J.

    2007-03-01

    The City of Iqaluit is an Arctic community that is very susceptible to the stresses of climate change. The city is challenged by increased flooding, coastal erosion and ground instability caused by melting of the permafrost layer. In response, the City of Iqaluit has created policies to reduce greenhouse gases and act on climate change. A project has also been launched to develop adaptation strategies, with particular focus on infrastructure vulnerability given the environmental and climate change in the Canadian Arctic. The purpose of the study is to evaluate the biophysical exposure and hazards on Arctic coasts subject to effects of climate change, identify past and current management strategies used to manage risks in coastal communities which have already experienced environmental change, and to evaluate the adaptive capacity of communities for dealing with coastal hazards throughout the Arctic. This document identified the risks to Iqaluit's infrastructure, including buildings, roads, water supply, wastewater treatment and waste disposal systems. Adaptation options were also developed. These ranged from educational programs and retrofits to policy changes and building standard amendments. refs., tabs., figs

  14. Fuzzy stochastic damage mechanics (FSDM based on fuzzy auto-adaptive control theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ya-jun Wang

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available In order to fully interpret and describe damage mechanics, the origin and development of fuzzy stochastic damage mechanics were introduced based on the analysis of the harmony of damage, probability, and fuzzy membership in the interval of [0,1]. In a complete normed linear space, it was proven that a generalized damage field can be simulated through β probability distribution. Three kinds of fuzzy behaviors of damage variables were formulated and explained through analysis of the generalized uncertainty of damage variables and the establishment of a fuzzy functional expression. Corresponding fuzzy mapping distributions, namely, the half-depressed distribution, swing distribution, and combined swing distribution, which can simulate varying fuzzy evolution in diverse stochastic damage situations, were set up. Furthermore, through demonstration of the generalized probabilistic characteristics of damage variables, the cumulative distribution function and probability density function of fuzzy stochastic damage variables, which show β probability distribution, were modified according to the expansion principle. The three-dimensional fuzzy stochastic damage mechanical behaviors of the Longtan rolled-concrete dam were examined with the self-developed fuzzy stochastic damage finite element program. The statistical correlation and non-normality of random field parameters were considered comprehensively in the fuzzy stochastic damage model described in this paper. The results show that an initial damage field based on the comprehensive statistical evaluation helps to avoid many difficulties in the establishment of experiments and numerical algorithms for damage mechanics analysis.

  15. Australian climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hennessy, K.; Fitzharris, B.

    2007-01-01

    sites, including the Great Barrier Reef and Queensland Wet Tropics. Other sites at risk include Kakadu wetlands, south-west Australia and alpine areas; Risks to major infrastructure are likely to increase. By 2030, design criteria for extreme events are very likely to be exceeded more frequently. Risks include failure of floodplain protection and urban drainage/sewerage, increased storm and fire damage, and more heat waves causing more deaths and more black-outs; Production from agriculture and forestry is projected to decline by 2030 over much of southern and eastern Australia, due to increased drought and fire. Vulnerability is likely to increase in many sectors, but this depends on adaptive capacity; Most human systems have considerable adaptive capacity. The region has well developed economies, extensive scientific and technical capabilities, disaster mitigation strategies, and biosecurity measures. However, there are likely to be considerable cost and institutional constraints to implementation of adaptation options. Some Indigenous communities have low adaptive capacity. Water security and coastal communities are the most vulnerable sectors; Natural systems have limited adaptive capacity. Projected rates of climate change are very likely to exceed rates of evolutionary adaptation in many species. Habitat loss and fragmentation are very likely to limit species migration in response to shifting climatic zones; Vulnerability is likely to rise due to an increase in extreme events. Economic damage from extreme weather is very likely to increase and provide major challenges for adaptation; Vulnerability is likely to be high by 2050 in a few identified hotspots. These include the Great Barrier Reef, eastern Queensland, the south-west, Murray-Darling Basin, the alps and Kakadu wetland

  16. Coastal Adaptation Planning for Sea Level Rise and Extremes: A Global Model for Adaptation Decision-making at the Local Level Given Uncertain Climate Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, D.

    2014-12-01

    Understanding the potential economic and physical impacts of climate change on coastal resources involves evaluating a number of distinct adaptive responses. This paper presents a tool for such analysis, a spatially-disaggregated optimization model for adaptation to sea level rise (SLR) and storm surge, the Coastal Impact and Adaptation Model (CIAM). This decision-making framework fills a gap between very detailed studies of specific locations and overly aggregate global analyses. While CIAM is global in scope, the optimal adaptation strategy is determined at the local level, evaluating over 12,000 coastal segments as described in the DIVA database (Vafeidis et al. 2006). The decision to pursue a given adaptation measure depends on local socioeconomic factors like income, population, and land values and how they develop over time, relative to the magnitude of potential coastal impacts, based on geophysical attributes like inundation zones and storm surge. For example, the model's decision to protect or retreat considers the costs of constructing and maintaining coastal defenses versus those of relocating people and capital to minimize damages from land inundation and coastal storms. Uncertain storm surge events are modeled with a generalized extreme value distribution calibrated to data on local surge extremes. Adaptation is optimized for the near-term outlook, in an "act then learn then act" framework that is repeated over the model time horizon. This framework allows the adaptation strategy to be flexibly updated, reflecting the process of iterative risk management. CIAM provides new estimates of the economic costs of SLR; moreover, these detailed results can be compactly represented in a set of adaptation and damage functions for use in integrated assessment models. Alongside the optimal result, CIAM evaluates suboptimal cases and finds that global costs could increase by an order of magnitude, illustrating the importance of adaptive capacity and coastal policy.

  17. Urbanization may reduce the risk of frost damage to spring flowers: A case study of two shrub species in South Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gim, Hyeon-Ju; Ho, Chang-Hoi; Kim, Jinwon; Lee, Eun Ju

    2018-01-01

    Regional warming, owing to urbanization, leads to earlier spring phenological events and may expose plants to hard freeze damage. This study examined the influence of urbanization on the risk of frost damage to spring flowers in South Korea from 1973 to 2015. For the analysis period, we categorized 25 cities into two groups: those showing rapid population growth (rPG) ≥ 200,000, including 13 cities, and those showing no or decreased population growth (nPG), including 12 cities. We then investigated the time from the last frost dates (LFDs) in spring to the first flowering dates (FFDs) for each group. The rPG group experienced significant spring warming of 0.47°C per decade, resulting in earlier LFDs and FFDs. For this group, the advancement of LFD was more rapid than that of FFD, and the days between these two dates increased from 0.42 to 0.47 days per decade, implying a reduced risk of frost damage. Spring warming and the advancement of FFDs and LFDs were relatively small for the nPG group, and the LFDs were rather delayed. Consequently, the days between LFDs and FFDs were reduced from -1.05 to -1.67 days per decade, indicating an increased risk of frost damage. The contrasting changes in the frost-damage risk between the two city groups can be attributed to distinct urban warming at night, which makes the LFDs substantially earlier in the rPG group. Therefore, this study suggests that the warming associated with urbanization may lessen the risk of spring frost damage to plants in rapidly growing urban areas.

  18. Comparative Risk Assessment to Inform Adaptation Priorities for the Natural Environment: Observations from the First UK Climate Change Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iain Brown

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment can potentially provide an objective framework to synthesise and prioritise climate change risks to inform adaptation policy. However, there are significant challenges in the application of comparative risk assessment procedures to climate change, particularly for the natural environment. These challenges are evaluated with particular reference to the first statutory Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA and evidence review procedures used to guide policy for the UK government. More progress was achieved on risk identification, screening and prioritisation compared to risk quantification. This was due to the inherent complexity and interdependence of ecological risks and their interaction with socio-economic drivers as well as a climate change. Robust strategies to manage risk were identified as those that coordinate organisational resources to enhance ecosystem resilience, and to accommodate inevitable change, rather than to meet specific species or habitats targets. The assessment also highlighted subjective and contextual components of risk appraisal including ethical issues regarding the level of human intervention in the natural environment and the proposed outcomes of any intervention. This suggests that goals for risk assessment need to be more clearly explicated and assumptions on tolerable risk declared as a primer for further dialogue on expectations for managed outcomes. Ecosystem-based adaptation may mean that traditional habitats and species conservation goals and existing regulatory frameworks no longer provide the best guide for long-term risk management thereby challenging the viability of some existing practices.

  19. Risk prediction is improved by adding markers of subclinical organ damage to SCORE

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sehestedt, Thomas; Jeppesen, Jørgen; Hansen, Tine W

    2010-01-01

    cardiovascular, anti-diabetic, or lipid-lowering treatment, aged 41, 51, 61, or 71 years, we measured traditional cardiovascular risk factors, left ventricular (LV) mass index, atherosclerotic plaques in the carotid arteries, carotid/femoral pulse wave velocity (PWV), and urine albumin/creatinine ratio (UACR......) and followed them for a median of 12.8 years. Eighty-one subjects died because of cardiovascular causes. Risk of cardiovascular death was independently of SCORE associated with LV hypertrophy [hazard ratio (HR) 2.2 (95% CI 1.2-4.0)], plaques [HR 2.5 (1.6-4.0)], UACR > or = 90th percentile [HR 3.3 (1.......07). CONCLUSION: Subclinical organ damage predicted cardiovascular death independently of SCORE and the combination may improve risk prediction....

  20. Review of the Shoreham Nuclear Power Station Probabilistic Risk Assessment: internal events and core damage frequency

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ilberg, D.; Shiu, K.; Hanan, N.; Anavim, E.

    1985-11-01

    A review of the Probabilistic Risk Assessment of the Shoreham Nuclear Power Station was conducted with the broad objective of evaluating its risks in relation to those identified in the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400). The scope of the review was limited to the ''front end'' part, i.e., to the evaluation of the frequencies of states in which core damage may occur. Furthermore, the review considered only internally generated accidents, consistent with the scope of the PRA. The review included an assessment of the assumptions and methods used in the Shoreham study. It also encompassed a reevaluation of the main results within the scope and general methodological framework of the Shoreham PRA, including both qualitative and quantitative analyses of accident initiators, data bases, and accident sequences which result in initiation of core damage. Specific comparisons are given between the Shoreham study, the results of the present review, and the WASH-1400 BWR, for the core damage frequency. The effect of modeling uncertainties was considered by a limited sensitivity study so as to show how the results would change if other assumptions were made. This review provides an independently assessed point value estimate of core damage frequency and describes the major contributors, by frontline systems and by accident sequences. 17 figs., 81 tabs

  1. Flood damage: a model for consistent, complete and multipurpose scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menoni, Scira; Molinari, Daniela; Ballio, Francesco; Minucci, Guido; Mejri, Ouejdane; Atun, Funda; Berni, Nicola; Pandolfo, Claudia

    2016-12-01

    Effective flood risk mitigation requires the impacts of flood events to be much better and more reliably known than is currently the case. Available post-flood damage assessments usually supply only a partial vision of the consequences of the floods as they typically respond to the specific needs of a particular stakeholder. Consequently, they generally focus (i) on particular items at risk, (ii) on a certain time window after the occurrence of the flood, (iii) on a specific scale of analysis or (iv) on the analysis of damage only, without an investigation of damage mechanisms and root causes. This paper responds to the necessity of a more integrated interpretation of flood events as the base to address the variety of needs arising after a disaster. In particular, a model is supplied to develop multipurpose complete event scenarios. The model organizes available information after the event according to five logical axes. This way post-flood damage assessments can be developed that (i) are multisectoral, (ii) consider physical as well as functional and systemic damage, (iii) address the spatial scales that are relevant for the event at stake depending on the type of damage that has to be analyzed, i.e., direct, functional and systemic, (iv) consider the temporal evolution of damage and finally (v) allow damage mechanisms and root causes to be understood. All the above features are key for the multi-usability of resulting flood scenarios. The model allows, on the one hand, the rationalization of efforts currently implemented in ex post damage assessments, also with the objective of better programming financial resources that will be needed for these types of events in the future. On the other hand, integrated interpretations of flood events are fundamental to adapting and optimizing flood mitigation strategies on the basis of thorough forensic investigation of each event, as corroborated by the implementation of the model in a case study.

  2. Using community archetypes to better understand differential community adaptation to wildfire risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carroll, Matthew; Paveglio, Travis

    2016-06-05

    One of the immediate challenges of wildfire management concerns threats to human safety and property in residential areas adjacent to non-cultivated vegetation. One approach for relieving this problem is to increase human community 'adaptiveness' to deal with the risk and reality of fire in a variety of landscapes. The challenge in creating 'fire-adapted communities' (FACs) is the great diversity in character and make-up of populations at risk from wildfire. This paper outlines a recently developed categorization scheme for Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI) communities based on a larger conceptual approach for understanding how social diversity is likely to influence the creation of FACs. The WUI categorization scheme situates four community archetypes on a continuum that recognizes dynamic change in human community functioning. We use results from the WUI classification scheme to outline key characteristics associated with each archetype and results from recent case studies to demonstrate the diversity across WUI communities. Differences among key characteristics of local social context will likely result in the need for different adaptation strategies to wildfire. While the WUI archetypes described here may not be broadly applicable to other parts of the world, we argue that the conceptual approach and strategies for systematically documenting local influences on wildfire adaptation have potential for broad application.This article is part of the themed issue 'The interaction of fire and mankind'. © 2016 The Author(s).

  3. WORK PRECARIOUSNESS: ERGONOMIC RISKS TO OPERATORS OF MACHINES ADAPTED FOR FOREST HARVESTING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stanley Schettino

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT This study aimed to assess different types of machines adapted for mechanized forest harvesting activities in order to quantify the degree of compliance with ergonomic principles applicable to forest machines, as well as the ergonomic risks to which workers are exposed. The following machines were evaluated: a feller buncher adapted into a wheel loader; a mini skidder coupled to an agricultural tractor; and a forest loader adapted to an agricultural tractor; operating in the states of Paraná and Minas Gerais. Biomechanical working conditions were assessed by applying a checklist for simplified assessment of the workplace biomechanical conditions. The forced postures assessment was performed using the REBA - "Rapid Entire Body Assessment" method. In turn, ergonomic classification was through guidelines contained in the ergonomic classification manual "Ergonomic Guidelines for Forest Machines". Moreover, the environmental factors noise, temperature and vibration to which the operators of these machines were exposed were assessed. The results showed all assessed machines had ergonomic standards below those indicated in all assessed aspects, mainly related to access and dimensions of the workplace, need to adopt forced postures during working hours, and exposure to environmental factors assessed above tolerance limits. It is concluded that machines adapted for use in forest harvesting processes have shown significant gaps in relation to ergonomic aspects, presenting high and imminent risk of development of occupational diseases in their operators.

  4. Failure to adapt infrastructure: is legal liability lurking for infrastructure stakeholders

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gherbaz, S.

    2009-01-01

    'Full text:' Very little attention has been paid to potential legal liability for failing to adapt infrastructure to climate change-related risk. Amendments to laws, building codes and standards to take into account the potential impact of climate change on infrastructure assets are still at least some time away. Notwithstanding that amendments are still some time away, there is a real risk to infrastructure stakeholders for failing to adapt. The legal framework in Canada currently permits a court, in the right circumstances, to find certain infrastructure stakeholders legally liable for personal injury and property damage suffered by third parties as a result of climate change effects. This presentation will focus on legal liability of owners (governmental and private sector), engineers, architects and contractors for failing to adapt infrastructure assets to climate change risk. It will answer commonly asked questions such as: Can I avoid liability by complying with existing laws, codes and standards? Do engineers and architects have a duty to warn owners that existing laws, codes and standards do not, in certain circumstances, adequately take into account the impact of climate change-related risks on an infrastructure asset? And do professional liability insurance policies commonly maintained by architects, engineers and other design professionals provide coverage for a design professional's failure to take into account climate change-related risks?. (author)

  5. Flash Flood Risk Perception in an Italian Alpine Region. From Research into Adaptive Strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scolobig, A.; de Marchi, B.; Borga, M.

    2009-04-01

    Flash floods are characterised by short lead times and high levels of uncertainty. Adaptive strategies to face them need to take into account not only the physical characteristics of the hydro-geological phenomena, but also peoples' risk perceptions, attitudes and behaviours in case of an emergency. It is quite obvious that a precondition for an effective adaptation, e.g. in the case of a warning, is the awareness of being endangered. At the same time the perceptions of those at risk and their likely actions inform hazard warning strategies and recovery programmes following such events. Usually low risk awareness or "wrong perceptions" of the residents are considered among the causes of an inadequate preparedness or response to flash floods as well as a symptom of a scarce self-protection culture. In this paper we will focus on flood risk perception and on how research on this topic may contribute to design adaptive strategies and give inputs to flood policy decisions. We will report on a flood risk perception study of the population residing in four villages in an Italian Alpine Region (Trentino Alto-Adige), carried out between October 2005 and January 2006. A total of 400 standardised questionnaires were submitted to local residents by face to face interviews. The surveys were preceded by focus groups with officers from agencies in charge of flood risk management and semi-structured and in-depth interviews with policy, scientific and technical experts. Survey results indicated that people are not so worried about hydro-geological phenomena, and think that their community is more endangered than themselves. The knowledge of the territory and danger sources, the unpredictability of flash floods and the feeling of safety induced by structural devices are the main elements which make the difference in shaping residents' perceptions. The study also demonstrated a widespread lack of adoption of preparatory measures among residents, together with a general low

  6. Seismic risk assessment of building based on damaged database of 1995 Hyogoken Nanbu Earthquake; Hyogoken nanbu jishin no hisai database wo mochiita kenchikubutsu no jishin risk hyoka ni kansuru kenkyu

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Suwa, H.; Nobata, A.; Seki, M. [Obayashi Corp., Tokyo (Japan)

    2000-01-10

    The objective of this paper is to evaluate a vulnerability function and a repair cost in terms of each structural damage level based on the damaged database of the 1995 Hyogoken Nanbu Earthquake. The seismic risk of a building in Kobe is calculated through the analytical results. As a result, the following are verified : 1. The expectation of vulnerability function, in which peak ground acceleration is taken for seismic intensity, is about 550 cm/s{sup 2} for minor damage, about 700 cm/s{sup 2} for moderate damage, and about 950 cm/s{sup 2} for major damage respectively. However, the coefficient of variation (C. O. V. ) is about 0.5 for all damage levels. 2. The expectation of repair cost per square meter is about 29000 yen for minor damage, about 60000 yen for moderate damage, and about 64000 yen for major damage respectively. However, the variation is very large, for example, the C. O. V. for repair cost varies from 1.2 to 1.6. 3. The seismic risk of a building in Kobe, that is normalized by new construction cost, is about three percent on condition that the design lifetime is assumed to be 50 years. (author)

  7. U.S. Global Climate Change Impacts Report, Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulwarty, R.

    2009-12-01

    disaster research and emergency management communities have shown over that early warnings of impending hazards need to be complemented by information on the risks actually posed by the hazards (including those resulting from low levels of preparedness), existing strategies on the ground, and likely pathways to mitigate the loss and damage in the particular context in which they arise. Effective adaptations require information for long-term infrastructural planning and as critically deliberative mechanisms to structure learning and redesign in the face of emergent problems. Adaptation tends to be reactive, unevenly distributed, and focused on coping rather than preventing problems. Reduction in vulnerability will require anticipatory deliberative processes focused on incorporating adaptation into long-term municipal and public service planning, including energy, water, and health services, in the face of changing climate-related risks combined with ongoing changes in population, land use and development patterns.

  8. Microdosimetric constraints on specific adaptation mechanisms to reduce DNA damage caused by ionising radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burkart, W.; Heusser, P.; Vijayalaxmi

    1990-01-01

    The protective effect of pre-exposure of lymphocytes to ionising radiation indicates the presence of 'adaptive repair' in mammalian cells. Microdosimetric considerations, however, raise some doubts on the advantage of such a cellular mechanism for specifically reducing the radiation damage caused by environmental exposures. Contrary to most chemicals which endanger the integrity of the mammalian genome, the local dose and dose rate from ionising radiation at the cellular level remain quite high, even at lowest exposures. A single electron or alpha particle passing through a cell nucleus already yields nuclear doses of up to about 3 mGy and 400 mGy, respectively. Macroscopic doses below these nuclear doses from a single event will only reduce the fraction of cell nuclei encountering the passage of a particle but not the dose or dose rate in the affected volume. At environmental doses in the range of 1 to 5 mGy per annum, the time between two consecutive hits in a specific cell nucleus is in the range of months to years. Very low concentrations of bleomycin, a drug with high affinity to DNA, also triggers an adaptive response. This points to a more general stress response mechanism which may benefit the cell even at environmental levels of radioactivity, e.g. by protecting the integrity of DNA from attacks by chemicals, by endogenous radicals, by acids from anoxia, etc. (author)

  9. Adaptation to flood risk: Results of international paired flood event studies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kreibich, Heidi; Di Baldassarre, G.; Vorogushyn, Sergiy; Aerts, J.C.J.H.; Apel, H.; Aronica, G.T.; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K.; Bouwer, L.; Bubeck, P.; Caloiero, Tommaso; Chinh, Do. T.; Cortès, Maria; Gain, A.K.; Giampá, Vincenzo; Kuhlicke, C; Kundzewicz, Z.W.; Carmen Llasat, M; Mård, Johanna; Matczak, Piotr; Mazzoleni, Maurizio; Molinari, Daniela; Dung, N.V.; Petrucci, Olga; Schröter, Kai; Slager, Kymo; Thieken, A.H.; Ward, P.J.; Merz, B.

    2017-01-01

    As flood impacts are increasing in large parts of the world, understanding the primary drivers of changes in risk is essential for effective adaptation. To gain more knowledge on the basis of empirical case studies, we analyze eight paired floods, that is, consecutive flood events that occurred in

  10. U.S. Coastal Flood Damage Reduction Projects: Federal Authorization and Investment Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carter, N. T.

    2015-12-01

    The 2015 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency report Climate Change in the United States: Benefits of Global Action estimated the potential cumulative future economic impacts of storm surge and sea-level rise on U.S. coasts during this century at 5 trillion (2014 dollars) if no adaptation measures are implemented. These impacts drop to 0.8 trillion if investments are made in cost-effective adaptations and protections. Awareness of flood risk and its long-term fiscal impact historically has proven insufficient to motivate pre-disaster land use changes and investments in mitigation and protection. While many adaptations and protections fall largely under state and local authority, some stakeholders are interested in federal coastal flood protection projects, including projects by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Since the 1950s, Congress has authorized the Corps to construct specific coastal projects. The broad vision, strategy, and priorities for the federal role in coastal flood damage reduction projects nonetheless remain ill-defined. This research analyzes (1) the authorization and appropriations trends for Corps coastal storm damage reduction projects, and (2) how Corps feasibility studies account for and address coastal flood hazards. Identified trends include: emergency appropriations for storm-damaged areas outstrip annual investments in coastal flood projects; the rate at which projects are congressionally approved for construction outpaces the rate at which construction is funded; and how coastal protection projects are evaluated in Corps feasibility studies shows variation and change in agency practices. These trends have consequences; they affect public and local expectations when projects begin providing protection benefits, and may influence investments in other adaptation measures. These trends also raise questions for policymakers at all levels and for scientists and practitioners interested in coastal flood resilience.

  11. Towards a Fuzzy Bayesian Network Based Approach for Safety Risk Analysis of Tunnel-Induced Pipeline Damage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Limao; Wu, Xianguo; Qin, Yawei; Skibniewski, Miroslaw J; Liu, Wenli

    2016-02-01

    Tunneling excavation is bound to produce significant disturbances to surrounding environments, and the tunnel-induced damage to adjacent underground buried pipelines is of considerable importance for geotechnical practice. A fuzzy Bayesian networks (FBNs) based approach for safety risk analysis is developed in this article with detailed step-by-step procedures, consisting of risk mechanism analysis, the FBN model establishment, fuzzification, FBN-based inference, defuzzification, and decision making. In accordance with the failure mechanism analysis, a tunnel-induced pipeline damage model is proposed to reveal the cause-effect relationships between the pipeline damage and its influential variables. In terms of the fuzzification process, an expert confidence indicator is proposed to reveal the reliability of the data when determining the fuzzy probability of occurrence of basic events, with both the judgment ability level and the subjectivity reliability level taken into account. By means of the fuzzy Bayesian inference, the approach proposed in this article is capable of calculating the probability distribution of potential safety risks and identifying the most likely potential causes of accidents under both prior knowledge and given evidence circumstances. A case concerning the safety analysis of underground buried pipelines adjacent to the construction of the Wuhan Yangtze River Tunnel is presented. The results demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed FBN approach and its application potential. The proposed approach can be used as a decision tool to provide support for safety assurance and management in tunnel construction, and thus increase the likelihood of a successful project in a complex project environment. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  12. Coastal and river flood risk analyses for guiding economically optimal flood adaptation policies: a country-scale study for Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haer, Toon; Botzen, W. J. Wouter; van Roomen, Vincent; Connor, Harry; Zavala-Hidalgo, Jorge; Eilander, Dirk M.; Ward, Philip J.

    2018-06-01

    Many countries around the world face increasing impacts from flooding due to socio-economic development in flood-prone areas, which may be enhanced in intensity and frequency as a result of climate change. With increasing flood risk, it is becoming more important to be able to assess the costs and benefits of adaptation strategies. To guide the design of such strategies, policy makers need tools to prioritize where adaptation is needed and how much adaptation funds are required. In this country-scale study, we show how flood risk analyses can be used in cost-benefit analyses to prioritize investments in flood adaptation strategies in Mexico under future climate scenarios. Moreover, given the often limited availability of detailed local data for such analyses, we show how state-of-the-art global data and flood risk assessment models can be applied for a detailed assessment of optimal flood-protection strategies. Our results show that especially states along the Gulf of Mexico have considerable economic benefits from investments in adaptation that limit risks from both river and coastal floods, and that increased flood-protection standards are economically beneficial for many Mexican states. We discuss the sensitivity of our results to modelling uncertainties, the transferability of our modelling approach and policy implications. This article is part of the theme issue `Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

  13. Modeled changes in 100 year Flood Risk and Asset Damages within Mapped Floodplains of the Contiguous United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wobus, C. W.; Gutmann, E. D.; Jones, R.; Rissing, M.; Mizukami, N.; Lorie, M.; Mahoney, H.; Wood, A.; Mills, D.; Martinich, J.

    2017-12-01

    A growing body of recent work suggests that the extreme weather events that drive inland flooding are likely to increase in frequency and magnitude in a warming climate, thus increasing monetary damages from flooding in the future. We use hydrologic projections based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to estimate changes in the frequency of modeled 1% annual exceedance probability flood events at 57,116 locations across the contiguous United States (CONUS). We link these flood projections to a database of assets within mapped flood hazard zones to model changes in inland flooding damages throughout the CONUS over the remainder of the 21st century, under two greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios. Our model generates early 21st century flood damages that reasonably approximate the range of historical observations, and trajectories of future damages that vary substantially depending on the GHG emissions pathway. The difference in modeled flood damages between higher and lower emissions pathways approaches $4 billion per year by 2100 (in undiscounted 2014 dollars), suggesting that aggressive GHG emissions reductions could generate significant monetary benefits over the long-term in terms of reduced flood risk. Although the downscaled hydrologic data we used have been applied to flood impacts studies elsewhere, this research expands on earlier work to quantify changes in flood risk by linking future flood exposure to assets and damages at a national scale. Our approach relies on a series of simplifications that could ultimately affect damage estimates (e.g., use of statistical downscaling, reliance on a nationwide hydrologic model, and linking damage estimates only to 1% AEP floods). Although future work is needed to test the sensitivity of our results to these methodological choices, our results suggest that monetary damages from inland flooding could be substantially reduced through more aggressive GHG mitigation policies.

  14. Damage Valuation Arising From Flood in São Luiz do Paraitinga (SP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alessandra Cristina Corsi

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The Sao Luiz de Paraitinga city staged between December 2009 and January 2010, intensity rainfall which resulted in flooding of the central area and several landslides in urban and rural areas. The occurrence of natural disasters like this gets a great media appeal, with reports showing strong images, the suffering of the people directly affected, their relatives loss, their homes and appliances and housewares. However a question that calls attention not counting the shock of the humanitarian tragedy are economic losses involved. There are some methods of valuation of damage to estimate economic losses. For this estimate we used an adaptation of the method Dala (Damage and Loss Assessment. This evaluation includes a set of effects and their impacts on different economic and social sectors, infrastructure and the environment; thereby allowing scale the amount needed for reconstruction, risk management and public policies aimed at the prevention of natural disaster risk. As a result the amount of damages in São Luiz de Paraitinga measure up to R$103.63 million. It should be noted that the housing sector and cultural heritage was the most impacted in the event, representing 35% of damages, showing the sector's vulnerability, ie, R$ 35 million. Followed by the transport sector that represents 24% of the flooding  total costs in the city.

  15. Managing Climate Change Risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jones, R. [CSIRO Atmospheric Research, PMB1 Aspendale, Victoria 3195 (Australia)

    2003-07-01

    Issues of uncertainty, scale and delay between action and response mean that 'dangerous' climate change is best managed within a risk assessment framework that evolves as new information is gathered. Risk can be broadly defined as the combination of likelihood and consequence; the latter measured as vulnerability to greenhouse-induced climate change. The most robust way to assess climate change damages in a probabilistic framework is as the likelihood of critical threshold exceedance. Because vulnerability is dominated by local factors, global vulnerability is the aggregation of many local impacts being forced beyond their coping ranges. Several case studies, generic sea level rise and temperature, coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef and water supply in an Australian catchment, are used to show how local risk assessments can be assessed then expressed as a function of global warming. Impacts treated thus can be aggregated to assess global risks consistent with Article 2 of the UNFCCC. A 'proof of concept' example is then used to show how the stabilisation of greenhouse gases can constrain the likelihood of exceeding critical thresholds at both the both local and global scale. This analysis suggests that even if the costs of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and the benefits of avoiding climate damages can be estimated, the likelihood of being able to meet a cost-benefit target is limited by both physical and socio-economic uncertainties. In terms of managing climate change risks, adaptation will be most effective at reducing vulnerability likely to occur at low levels of warming. Successive efforts to mitigate greenhouse gases will reduce the likelihood of reaching levels of global warming from the top down, with the highest potential temperatures being avoided first, irrespective of contributing scientific uncertainties. This implies that the first cuts in emissions will always produce the largest economic benefits in terms of avoided

  16. Assessment of urban pluvial flood risk and efficiency of adaptation options through simulations - A new generation of urban planning tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Löwe, Roland; Urich, Christian; Sto. Domingo, Nina; Mark, Ole; Deletic, Ana; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

    2017-07-01

    We present a new framework for flexible testing of flood risk adaptation strategies in a variety of urban development and climate scenarios. This framework couples the 1D-2D hydrodynamic simulation package MIKE FLOOD with the agent-based urban development model DAnCE4Water and provides the possibility to systematically test various flood risk adaptation measures ranging from large infrastructure changes over decentralised water management to urban planning policies. We have tested the framework in a case study in Melbourne, Australia considering 9 scenarios for urban development and climate and 32 potential combinations of flood adaptation measures. We found that the performance of adaptation measures strongly depended on the considered climate and urban development scenario and the other implementation measures implemented, suggesting that adaptive strategies are preferable over one-off investments. Urban planning policies proved to be an efficient means for the reduction of flood risk, while implementing property buyback and pipe increases in a guideline-oriented manner was too costly. Random variations in location and time point of urban development could have significant impact on flood risk and would in some cases outweigh the benefits of less efficient adaptation strategies. The results of our setup can serve as an input for robust decision making frameworks and thus support the identification of flood risk adaptation measures that are economically efficient and robust to variations of climate and urban layout.

  17. Energy infrastructure in India: Profile and risks under climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garg, Amit; Naswa, Prakriti; Shukla, P.R.

    2015-01-01

    India has committed large investments to energy infrastructure assets-power plants, refineries, energy ports, pipelines, roads, railways, etc. The coastal infrastructure being developed to meet the rising energy imports is vulnerable to climate extremes. This paper provides an overview of climate risks to energy infrastructures in India and details two case studies – a crude oil importing port and a western coast railway transporting coal. The climate vulnerability of the port has been mapped using an index while that of the railway has been done through a damage function for RCP 4.5.0 and 8.5 scenarios. Our analysis shows that risk management through adaptation is likely to be very expensive. The system risks can be even greater and might adversely affect energy security and access objectives. Aligning sustainable development and climate adaptation measures can deliver substantial co-benefits. The key policy recommendations include: i) mandatory vulnerability assessment to future climate risks for energy infrastructures; ii) project and systemic risks in the vulnerability index; iii) adaptation funds for unmitigated climate risks; iv) continuous monitoring of climatic parameters and implementation of adaptation measures, and iv) sustainability actions along energy infrastructures that enhance climate resilience and simultaneously deliver co-benefits to local agents. -- Highlights: •Climate risks to energy infrastructures adversely impact energy security. •Case studies of a port and a railway show their future climate change vulnerability. •Managing climate-induced risks through preventive adaptation policies

  18. Risk-adapted targeted intraoperative radiotherapy versus whole-breast radiotherapy for breast cancer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vaidya, Jayant S; Wenz, Frederik; Bulsara, Max

    2014-01-01

    The TARGIT-A trial compared risk-adapted radiotherapy using single-dose targeted intraoperative radiotherapy (TARGIT) versus fractionated external beam radiotherapy (EBRT) for breast cancer. We report 5-year results for local recurrence and the first analysis of overall survival....

  19. Robots that can adapt like animals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cully, Antoine; Clune, Jeff; Tarapore, Danesh; Mouret, Jean-Baptiste

    2015-05-28

    Robots have transformed many industries, most notably manufacturing, and have the power to deliver tremendous benefits to society, such as in search and rescue, disaster response, health care and transportation. They are also invaluable tools for scientific exploration in environments inaccessible to humans, from distant planets to deep oceans. A major obstacle to their widespread adoption in more complex environments outside factories is their fragility. Whereas animals can quickly adapt to injuries, current robots cannot 'think outside the box' to find a compensatory behaviour when they are damaged: they are limited to their pre-specified self-sensing abilities, can diagnose only anticipated failure modes, and require a pre-programmed contingency plan for every type of potential damage, an impracticality for complex robots. A promising approach to reducing robot fragility involves having robots learn appropriate behaviours in response to damage, but current techniques are slow even with small, constrained search spaces. Here we introduce an intelligent trial-and-error algorithm that allows robots to adapt to damage in less than two minutes in large search spaces without requiring self-diagnosis or pre-specified contingency plans. Before the robot is deployed, it uses a novel technique to create a detailed map of the space of high-performing behaviours. This map represents the robot's prior knowledge about what behaviours it can perform and their value. When the robot is damaged, it uses this prior knowledge to guide a trial-and-error learning algorithm that conducts intelligent experiments to rapidly discover a behaviour that compensates for the damage. Experiments reveal successful adaptations for a legged robot injured in five different ways, including damaged, broken, and missing legs, and for a robotic arm with joints broken in 14 different ways. This new algorithm will enable more robust, effective, autonomous robots, and may shed light on the principles

  20. Household Adaptive Behavior in Response to Coastal Flood Risk and External Stressors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buchanan, M. K.

    2017-12-01

    Approximately forty percent of the world's population sits along ocean coastlines. This urban exposure to flooding is increasing due to population growth and sea level rise resulting from anthropogenic climate change. Recent research improving the characterization of physical hazards from climate change on the coastal zone has helped cities assess their risks. This work includes improving our understanding of the rate and magnitude of sea level rise, the change in distribution of tropical cyclones, and the resulting frequency and severity of flooding on global to local scales. However, the ability of settlements to cope or thrive under changing climate conditions will likely depend on the cooperation and initiative of households, regardless of any governmental efforts to reduce risk. Understanding individuals' likely responses to changing coastal hazards is thus critical for decision-makers to plan for a sustainable future. Individuals may be motivated not only by information regarding emerging flood hazards, but also by cognitive and contextual factors. For governments to develop effective adaptation policies, it is important to understand what factors tend to motivate household adaptation. We apply principles from economics and psychology to investigate how people respond to various existing adaptation options and policies, using a household survey with experiments in New York City neighborhoods affected by Hurricane Sandy. We investigate a comprehensive set of factors that may influence household adaptive behavior. A striking 64% of homeowners and 83% of renters intend to relocate among different plausible future conditions, such as frequent nuisance flooding and the adaptation of peers. This amount is substantial considering the political sensitivity of `retreat' and the lack of regional and federal preparation for large-scale climate-induced migration.

  1. A review: Development of a microdose model for analysis of adaptive response and bystander dose response behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonard, Bobby E

    2008-02-27

    Prior work has provided incremental phases to a microdosimetry modeling program to describe the dose response behavior of the radio-protective adaptive response effect. We have here consolidated these prior works (Leonard 2000, 2005, 2007a, 2007b, 2007c) to provide a composite, comprehensive Microdose Model that is also herein modified to include the bystander effect. The nomenclature for the model is also standardized for the benefit of the experimental cellular radio-biologist. It extends the prior work to explicitly encompass separately the analysis of experimental data that is 1.) only dose dependent and reflecting only adaptive response radio-protection, 2.) both dose and dose-rate dependent data and reflecting only adaptive response radio-protection for spontaneous and challenge dose damage, 3.) only dose dependent data and reflecting both bystander deleterious damage and adaptive response radio-protection (AR-BE model). The Appendix cites the various applications of the model. Here we have used the Microdose Model to analyze the, much more human risk significant, Elmore et al (2006) data for the dose and dose rate influence on the adaptive response radio-protective behavior of HeLa x Skin cells for naturally occurring, spontaneous chromosome damage from a Brachytherapy type (125)I photon radiation source. We have also applied the AR-BE Microdose Model to the Chromosome inversion data of Hooker et al (2004) reflecting both low LET bystander and adaptive response effects. The micro-beam facility data of Miller et al (1999), Nagasawa and Little (1999) and Zhou et al (2003) is also examined. For the Zhou et al (2003) data, we use the AR-BE model to estimate the threshold for adaptive response reduction of the bystander effect. The mammogram and diagnostic X-ray induction of AR and protective BE are observed. We show that bystander damage is reduced in the similar manner as spontaneous and challenge dose damage as shown by the Azzam et al (1996) data. We cite

  2. Genetic risk prediction using a spatial autoregressive model with adaptive lasso.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen, Yalu; Shen, Xiaoxi; Lu, Qing

    2018-05-31

    With rapidly evolving high-throughput technologies, studies are being initiated to accelerate the process toward precision medicine. The collection of the vast amounts of sequencing data provides us with great opportunities to systematically study the role of a deep catalog of sequencing variants in risk prediction. Nevertheless, the massive amount of noise signals and low frequencies of rare variants in sequencing data pose great analytical challenges on risk prediction modeling. Motivated by the development in spatial statistics, we propose a spatial autoregressive model with adaptive lasso (SARAL) for risk prediction modeling using high-dimensional sequencing data. The SARAL is a set-based approach, and thus, it reduces the data dimension and accumulates genetic effects within a single-nucleotide variant (SNV) set. Moreover, it allows different SNV sets having various magnitudes and directions of effect sizes, which reflects the nature of complex diseases. With the adaptive lasso implemented, SARAL can shrink the effects of noise SNV sets to be zero and, thus, further improve prediction accuracy. Through simulation studies, we demonstrate that, overall, SARAL is comparable to, if not better than, the genomic best linear unbiased prediction method. The method is further illustrated by an application to the sequencing data from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  3. Executive functioning, concern about falling and quadriceps strength mediate the relationship between impaired gait adaptability and fall risk in older people.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caetano, Maria Joana D; Lord, Stephen R; Brodie, Matthew A; Schoene, Daniel; Pelicioni, Paulo H S; Sturnieks, Daina L; Menant, Jasmine C

    2018-01-01

    Reduced ability to adapt gait, particularly under challenging conditions, may be an important reason why older adults have an increased risk of falling. This study aimed to identify cognitive, psychological and physical mediators of the relationship between impaired gait adaptability and fall risk in older adults. Fifty healthy older adults (mean±SD: 74±7years) were categorised as high or low fall risk, based on past falls and their performance in the Physiological Profile Assessment. High and low-risk groups were then compared in the gait adaptability test, i.e. an assessment of the ability to adapt gait in response to obstacles and stepping targets under single and dual task conditions. Quadriceps strength, concern about falling and executive function were also measured. The older adults who made errors on the gait adaptability test were 4.76 (95%CI=1.08-20.91) times more likely to be at high risk of falling. Furthermore, each standard deviation reduction in gait speed while approaching the targets/obstacle increased the odds of being at high risk of falling approximately three fold: single task - OR=3.10,95%CI=1.43-6.73; dual task - 3.42,95%CI=1.56-7.52. Executive functioning, concern about falling and quadriceps strength substantially mediated the relationship between the gait adaptability measures and fall risk status. Impaired gait adaptability is associated with high risk of falls in older adults. Reduced executive function, increased concern about falling and weaker quadriceps strength contribute significantly to this relationship. Training gait adaptability directly, as well as addressing the above mediators through cognitive, behavioural and physical training may maximise fall prevention efficacy. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Liability for on-site nuclear property damage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Neems, H.J.

    2000-01-01

    Typically, liability for on-site property addressed in contracts between operator and its suppliers. Nuclear power plant operators ordinarily protect themselves against risk of nuclear damage to on-site property by insurance. Nuclear liability laws do not specifically address liability for nuclear damage to on-site property. Nuclear plant owners should address risk of damage to on-site property when developing risk management program

  5. Health risks of climate change: An assessment of uncertainties and its implications for adaptation policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Background Projections of health risks of climate change are surrounded with uncertainties in knowledge. Understanding of these uncertainties will help the selection of appropriate adaptation policies. Methods We made an inventory of conceivable health impacts of climate change, explored the type and level of uncertainty for each impact, and discussed its implications for adaptation policy. A questionnaire-based expert elicitation was performed using an ordinal scoring scale. Experts were asked to indicate the level of precision with which health risks can be estimated, given the present state of knowledge. We assessed the individual scores, the expertise-weighted descriptive statistics, and the argumentation given for each score. Suggestions were made for how dealing with uncertainties could be taken into account in climate change adaptation policy strategies. Results The results showed that the direction of change could be indicated for most anticipated health effects. For several potential effects, too little knowledge exists to indicate whether any impact will occur, or whether the impact will be positive or negative. For several effects, rough ‘order-of-magnitude’ estimates were considered possible. Factors limiting health impact quantification include: lack of data, multi-causality, unknown impacts considering a high-quality health system, complex cause-effect relations leading to multi-directional impacts, possible changes of present-day response-relations, and difficulties in predicting local climate impacts. Participants considered heat-related mortality and non-endemic vector-borne diseases particularly relevant for climate change adaptation. Conclusions For possible climate related health impacts characterised by ignorance, adaptation policies that focus on enhancing the health system’s and society’s capability of dealing with possible future changes, uncertainties and surprises (e.g. through resilience, flexibility, and adaptive capacity) are

  6. Being Prepared for Climate Change: A Workbook for Developing Risk-Based Adaptation Plans

    Science.gov (United States)

    This workbook is a guide for environmental professionals to construct a climate change adaptation plan based on identifying risks and their consequences. It incorporates watershed management, vulnerability assessments and action planning.

  7. The KnowRISK project: Tools and strategies for risk communication and learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Musacchio, Gemma; Amaral Ferreira, Mónica; Falsaperla, Susanna; Piangiamore, Giovanna Lucia; Pino, Nicola Alessandro; Solarino, Stefano; Crescimbene, Massimo; Eva, Elena; Reitano, Danilo; Þorvaldsdottir, Solveig; Sousa Silva, Delta; Rupakhety, Rajesh; Sousa Oliveira, Carlos

    2016-04-01

    Damage of non-structural elements of buildings (i.e. partitions, ceilings, cladding, electrical and mechanical systems and furniture) is known to cause injuries and human losses. Also it has a significant impact on earthquake resilience and is yet being worldwide underestimated. The project KnowRISK (Know your city, Reduce seISmic risK through non-structural elements) is financed by the European Commission to develop prevention measures that may reduce non-structural damage in urban areas. Pilot areas of the project are within the three European participating countries, namely Portugal, Iceland and Italy. They were chosen because they are prone to damage level 2 and 3 (EMS-98, European Macroseismic Scale) that typically affects non-structural elements. We will develop and test a risk communication strategy taking into account the needs of households and schools, putting into practice a portfolio of best practice to reduce the most common non-structural vulnerabilities. We will target our actions to different societal groups, considering their cultural background and social vulnerabilities, and implement a participatory approach that will promote engagement and interaction between the scientific community, practitioners and citizens to foster knowledge on everyone's own neighborhoods, resilience and vulnerability. A Practical Guide for citizens will highlight that low-cost actions can be implemented to increase safety of households, meant as being the places where the most vulnerable societal groups, including children and elderly people, spend much of their time. Since our actions towards communication will include education, we will define tools that allow a clear and direct understanding of elements exposed to risk. Schools will be one of our target societal groups and their central role played at the community level will ensure spreading and strengthening of the communication process. Schools are often located in old or re-adapted buildings, formerly used for

  8. Future trends in flood risk in Indonesia - A probabilistic approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muis, Sanne; Guneralp, Burak; Jongman, Brenden; Ward, Philip

    2014-05-01

    Indonesia is one of the 10 most populous countries in the world and is highly vulnerable to (river) flooding. Catastrophic floods occur on a regular basis; total estimated damages were US 0.8 bn in 2010 and US 3 bn in 2013. Large parts of Greater Jakarta, the capital city, are annually subject to flooding. Flood risks (i.e. the product of hazard, exposure and vulnerability) are increasing due to rapid increases in exposure, such as strong population growth and ongoing economic development. The increase in risk may also be amplified by increasing flood hazards, such as increasing flood frequency and intensity due to climate change and land subsidence. The implementation of adaptation measures, such as the construction of dykes and strategic urban planning, may counteract these increasing trends. However, despite its importance for adaptation planning, a comprehensive assessment of current and future flood risk in Indonesia is lacking. This contribution addresses this issue and aims to provide insight into how socio-economic trends and climate change projections may shape future flood risks in Indonesia. Flood risk were calculated using an adapted version of the GLOFRIS global flood risk assessment model. Using this approach, we produced probabilistic maps of flood risks (i.e. annual expected damage) at a resolution of 30"x30" (ca. 1km x 1km at the equator). To represent flood exposure, we produced probabilistic projections of urban growth in a Monte-Carlo fashion based on probability density functions of projected population and GDP values for 2030. To represent flood hazard, inundation maps were computed using the hydrological-hydraulic component of GLOFRIS. These maps show flood inundation extent and depth for several return periods and were produced for several combinations of GCMs and future socioeconomic scenarios. Finally, the implementation of different adaptation strategies was incorporated into the model to explore to what extent adaptation may be able to

  9. Climate Change and Infectious Disease Risk in Western Europe: A Survey of Dutch Expert Opinion on Adaptation Responses and Actors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akin, Su-Mia; Martens, Pim; Huynen, Maud M T E

    2015-08-18

    There is growing evidence of climate change affecting infectious disease risk in Western Europe. The call for effective adaptation to this challenge becomes increasingly stronger. This paper presents the results of a survey exploring Dutch expert perspectives on adaptation responses to climate change impacts on infectious disease risk in Western Europe. Additionally, the survey explores the expert sample's prioritization of mitigation and adaptation, and expert views on the willingness and capacity of relevant actors to respond to climate change. An integrated view on the causation of infectious disease risk is employed, including multiple (climatic and non-climatic) factors. The results show that the experts consider some adaptation responses as relatively more cost-effective, like fostering interagency and community partnerships, or beneficial to health, such as outbreak investigation and response. Expert opinions converge and diverge for different adaptation responses. Regarding the prioritization of mitigation and adaptation responses expert perspectives converge towards a 50/50 budgetary allocation. The experts consider the national government/health authority as the most capable actor to respond to climate change-induced infectious disease risk. Divergence and consensus among expert opinions can influence adaptation policy processes. Further research is necessary to uncover prevailing expert perspectives and their roots, and compare these.

  10. Identifying Patterns in Extreme Precipitation Risk and the Related Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schroeer, K.; Tye, M. R.

    2017-12-01

    Extreme precipitation can harm human life and assets through flooding, hail, landslides, or debris flows. Flood risk assessments typically concentrate on river or mountain torrent channels, using water depth, flow velocity, and/or sediment deposition to quantify the risk. In addition, extreme events with high recurrence intervals are often the main focus. However, damages from short-term and localized convective showers often occur away from watercourses. Also, damages from more frequent small scale extremes, although usually less disastrous, can accumulate to considerable financial burdens. Extreme convective precipitation is expected to intensify in a warmer climate, and vulnerability patterns might change in tandem with changes in the character of precipitation and flood types. This has consequences for adaptation planners who want to establish effective protection measures and reduce the cost from natural hazards. Here we merge hydrological and exposure data to identify patterns of risk under varying synoptic conditions. Exposure is calculated from a database of 76k damage claims reported to the national disaster fund in 480 municipalities in south eastern Austria from 1990-2015. Hydrological data comprise sub-daily precipitation (59 gauges) and streamflow (62 gauges) observations. We use synoptic circulation types to identify typical precipitation patterns. They indicate the character of precipitation even if a gauge is not in close proximity, facilitating potential future research with regional climate model data. Results show that more claims are reported under synoptic conditions favouring convective precipitation (on average 1.5-3 times more than on other days). For agrarian municipalities, convective precipitation damages are among the costliest after long low-intensity precipitation events. In contrast, Alpine communities are particularly vulnerable to convective high-intensity rainfall. In addition to possible observational error, uncertainty is present

  11. Robust Optimal Adaptive Control Method with Large Adaptive Gain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Nhan T.

    2009-01-01

    In the presence of large uncertainties, a control system needs to be able to adapt rapidly to regain performance. Fast adaptation is referred to the implementation of adaptive control with a large adaptive gain to reduce the tracking error rapidly. However, a large adaptive gain can lead to high-frequency oscillations which can adversely affect robustness of an adaptive control law. A new adaptive control modification is presented that can achieve robust adaptation with a large adaptive gain without incurring high-frequency oscillations as with the standard model-reference adaptive control. The modification is based on the minimization of the Y2 norm of the tracking error, which is formulated as an optimal control problem. The optimality condition is used to derive the modification using the gradient method. The optimal control modification results in a stable adaptation and allows a large adaptive gain to be used for better tracking while providing sufficient stability robustness. Simulations were conducted for a damaged generic transport aircraft with both standard adaptive control and the adaptive optimal control modification technique. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed modification in tracking a reference model while maintaining a sufficient time delay margin.

  12. Improving the use of crop models for risk assessment and climate change adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Challinor, Andrew J; Müller, Christoph; Asseng, Senthold; Deva, Chetan; Nicklin, Kathryn Jane; Wallach, Daniel; Vanuytrecht, Eline; Whitfield, Stephen; Ramirez-Villegas, Julian; Koehler, Ann-Kristin

    2018-01-01

    Crop models are used for an increasingly broad range of applications, with a commensurate proliferation of methods. Careful framing of research questions and development of targeted and appropriate methods are therefore increasingly important. In conjunction with the other authors in this special issue, we have developed a set of criteria for use of crop models in assessments of impacts, adaptation and risk. Our analysis drew on the other papers in this special issue, and on our experience in the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2017 and the MACSUR, AgMIP and ISIMIP projects. The criteria were used to assess how improvements could be made to the framing of climate change risks, and to outline the good practice and new developments that are needed to improve risk assessment. Key areas of good practice include: i. the development, running and documentation of crop models, with attention given to issues of spatial scale and complexity; ii. the methods used to form crop-climate ensembles, which can be based on model skill and/or spread; iii. the methods used to assess adaptation, which need broadening to account for technological development and to reflect the full range options available. The analysis highlights the limitations of focussing only on projections of future impacts and adaptation options using pre-determined time slices. Whilst this long-standing approach may remain an essential component of risk assessments, we identify three further key components: 1.Working with stakeholders to identify the timing of risks. What are the key vulnerabilities of food systems and what does crop-climate modelling tell us about when those systems are at risk?2.Use of multiple methods that critically assess the use of climate model output and avoid any presumption that analyses should begin and end with gridded output.3.Increasing transparency and inter-comparability in risk assessments. Whilst studies frequently produce ranges that quantify uncertainty, the assumptions

  13. Climate change risks and adaptation options across Australian seafood supply chains – A preliminary assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Fleming

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is already impacting the biology of the oceans and some dependent industries are in turn responding to these impacts. The development of response options for users of marine resources, such as fishers, is important in guiding adaptation efforts. However, harvesting fish is only the first step in a supply chain that delivers seafood to consumers. Impacts higher up the chain have seldom been considered in fisheries-climate research yet an understanding of these impacts and how climate risks and adaptation information are interpreted and used by stakeholders across the chain is vital for developing viable and sustainable adaptation options. We examined stakeholder perceptions of points where climate change impacts and adaptations currently occur, or may occur in the future, across the supply chains of several Australian fisheries (southern rock lobster, tropical rock lobster, prawn and aquaculture sectors (oyster, aquaculture prawn. We found that climate change impacts are well understood at the harvest stage and there is evidence of potential impacts and disruption to supply chains. Yet, there currently is no strong driver for change higher up the chain. Holistic adaptation planning along the supply chain, underpinned by targeted information and policy for the catch, processing and distribution, and marketing phases is needed. This effort is needed now, as some adaptation options have long lead times, and a delay in adaptation planning may limit future options. Given potential lead times and associated uncertainty, a risk-based approach is recommended with regard to adaptation planning for Australia’s seafood sector.

  14. What is DNA damage? Risk of double-strand break and its individual variation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hanaoka, Fumio

    2011-01-01

    The author discusses about the title subject in an aspect of possible spreading of Fukushima radioactive substances mainly in eastern north area of Japan where carcinogenic incidence may be increased as the ionizing radiation injures the gene (DNA). At first, explained is that cancer is a disease of genes with infinitive proliferation of cells, there are systems to prevent it by repairing the damaged DNA and by other mechanisms like exclusion of cells damaged too much or killing cancer cells with immunity, and individual difference of the repairing capability exists. DNA is always damaged even under ordinary living conditions by sunlight UV ray, cosmic radiation and chemicals externally and by active oxygen species and thermal water movement internally. Concomitantly, DNA damaged by many mechanisms like deletion, dimmer formation, chemical modification of bases, single and double strand breaks is always repaired by concerned enzymes. Double-strand damage by high-energy radiation like gamma ray is quite risky because its repair sometimes accompanies error as concerned enzymes are from more multiple genes. There are many syndromes derived from gene deficit of those repairing enzymes. The diseases concerned with repair of the double-strand damage teach that fetus and infant are more sensitive to radiation than adult as their young body cells are more actively synthesizing DNA, during which, if DNA is injured by radiation, risk of repairing error is higher as the double strand break more frequently occurs. It cannot be simply said that a certain radiation dose limit is generally permissible. There is an individual difference of radiation sensitivity and a possible method to find out an individual weak to radiation is the lymphocyte screening in vitro using anticancer bleomycin which breaks the double strand. (T.T.)

  15. Diet-Induced Weight Loss Reduces DNA Damage and Cardiometabolic Risk Factors in Overweight/Obese Women with Polycystic Ovary Syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soares, Nayara Pereira; Santos, Ana Celly Souza dos; Costa, Eduardo Caldas; Azevedo, George Dantas; Damasceno, Débora Cristina; Fayh, Ana Paula Trussardi; Lemos, Telma Maria Araújo Moura

    2016-01-01

    We aimed to investigate the impact of following a diet to induce weight loss (500 kcal deficit per day) over DNA damage and cardiometabolic risk factors in women with overweight/obesity diagnosed with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS). A study was conducted in Natal, RN, Brazil selecting overweight/obese (body mass index ≥25 and weight loss, decreased sexual hormone and cardiometabolic markers such as insulin, homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol were verified In the multivariate regression analysis, quantitative insulin sensitivity check index and progesterone were responsible for the variation markers in DNA damage before the diet, losing its influence upon diet. DNA damage and the impact of cardiometabolic risk factors decreased after the intervention in women with PCOS, indicating the relevance of a nutritional approach in this group of patients. © 2016 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  16. Cities and Sea Level Rise: A Roadmap for Flood Hazard Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horn, Diane; Cousins, Ann

    2016-04-01

    Coastal cities will face a range of increasingly severe challenges as sea level rises, and adaptation to future flood risk will require more than structural defences. Many cities will not be able to rely solely on engineering structures for protection and will need to develop a suite of policy responses to increase their resilience to impacts of rising sea level. The tools to promote flood risk adaptation are already within the capacity of most cities, with an assortment of policy tools available to address other land-use problems which can be refashioned and used to adapt to sea level rise. This study reviews approaches for urban adaptation through detailed analyses of case studies of cities which have developed flood adaptation strategies that combine structural defences with innovative approaches to living with flood risk. The aim of the overall project is to produce a 'roadmap' to guide practitioners through the process of analysing coastal flood risk in urban areas. Methodologies and tools to estimate vulnerability to coastal flooding, damages suffered, and the assessment of flood defences and adaptation measures are complemented with a discussion on the essential impact that local policy has on the treatment of coastal flooding and the constraints and opportunities that result from the specific country or locality characteristics in relation to economic, political, social and environmental priorities, which are likely to dictate the approach to coastal flooding and the actions proposed. Case studies of adaptation strategies used by Rotterdam, Bristol, Ho Chi Minh City and Norfolk, Virginia, are used to draw out a range of good practice elements that promote effective adaptation to sea level rise. These can be grouped into risk reduction, governance issues, and insurance, and can be used to provide examples of how other cities could adopt and implement flood adaptation strategies from a relatively limited starting position. Most cities will neither be able to

  17. Smallholder farmers’ attitudes and determinants of adaptation to climate risks in East Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kelvin M. Shikuku

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Adapting to climate risks is central to the goal of increasing food security and enhancing resilience of farming systems in East Africa. We examined farmers’ attitudes and assessed determinants of adaptation using data from a random sample of 500 households in Borana, Ethiopia; Nyando, Kenya; Hoima, Uganda; and Lushoto, Tanzania. Adaptation was measured using a livelihood-based index that assigned weights to different individual strategies based on their marginal contributions to a household’s livelihood. Results showed that farmers’ attitudes across the four sites strongly favored introduction of new crops, changes in crop varieties, and changes in planting times. Farmers disfavored soil, land, and water management practices. At lower levels of adaptation (25% quantile, adaptation index correlated positively with membership to farmers’ groups, household size, sex of the household head, and number of months of food shortage. Farmer group membership enhanced adaptation at intermediate (50% quantile level whereas access to credit increased adaptation at high (75% quantile level. Food insecurity, however, correlated negatively with the likelihood to choose individual adaptation strategies suggesting that although households adapted to improve food security status of their households, hunger was a barrier to adaptation. Our findings suggest that providing climate information to inform timely planting, promoting crop diversification, and encouraging adoption of adapted varieties of crops might be successful to enhancing resilience of farming systems in the short-term. In the long-term, increased investment in reducing hunger, encouraging groups formation, and easing liquidity constraints will be required to promote adaptation through implementation of soil, water, and land management strategies.

  18. Experimental verifications of a structural damage identification technique using reduced order finite-element model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Rui; Zhou, Li; Yang, Jann N.

    2010-04-01

    An objective of the structural health monitoring system is to identify the state of the structure and to detect the damage when it occurs. Analysis techniques for the damage identification of structures, based on vibration data measured from sensors, have received considerable attention. Recently, a new damage tracking technique, referred to as the adaptive quadratic sum-square error (AQSSE) technique, has been proposed, and simulation studies demonstrated that the AQSSE technique is quite effective in identifying structural damages. In this paper, the adaptive quadratic sumsquare error (AQSSE) along with the reduced-order finite-element method is proposed to identify the damages of complex structures. Experimental tests were conducted to verify the capability of the proposed damage detection approach. A series of experimental tests were performed using a scaled cantilever beam subject to the white noise and sinusoidal excitations. The capability of the proposed reduced-order finite-element based adaptive quadratic sum-square error (AQSSE) method in detecting the structural damage is demonstrated by the experimental results.

  19. Quantifying the economic risks of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diaz, Delavane; Moore, Frances

    2017-11-01

    Understanding the value of reducing greenhouse-gas emissions matters for policy decisions and climate risk management, but quantification is challenging because of the complex interactions and uncertainties in the Earth and human systems, as well as normative ethical considerations. Current modelling approaches use damage functions to parameterize a simplified relationship between climate variables, such as temperature change, and economic losses. Here we review and synthesize the limitations of these damage functions and describe how incorporating impacts, adaptation and vulnerability research advances and empirical findings could substantially improve damage modelling and the robustness of social cost of carbon values produced. We discuss the opportunities and challenges associated with integrating these research advances into cost-benefit integrated assessment models, with guidance for future work.

  20. A Multicriteria Risk Analysis to Evaluate Impacts of Forest Management Alternatives on Forest Health in Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hervé Jactel

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Due to climate change, forests are likely to face new hazards, which may require adaptation of our existing silvicultural practices. However, it is difficult to imagine a forest management approach that can simultaneously minimize all risks of damage. Multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA has been developed to help decision makers choose between actions that require reaching a compromise among criteria of different weights. We adapted this method and produced a multicriteria risk analysis (MCRA to compare the risk of damage associated with various forest management systems with a range of management intensity. The objective was to evaluate the effect of four forest management alternatives (FMAs (i.e., close to nature, extensive management with combined objectives, intensive even-aged plantations, and short-rotation forestry for biomass production on biotic and abiotic risks of damage in eight regional case studies combining three forest biomes (Boreal, Continental, Atlantic and five tree species (Eucalyptus globulus, Pinus pinaster, Pinus sylvestris, Picea sitchensis, and Picea abies relevant to wood production in Europe. Specific forest susceptibility to a series of abiotic (wind, fire, and snow and biotic (insect pests, pathogenic fungi, and mammal herbivores hazards were defined by expert panels and subsequently weighted by corresponding likelihood. The PROMETHEE ranking method was applied to rank the FMAs from the most to the least at risk. Overall, risk was lower in short-rotation forests designed to produce wood biomass, because of the reduced stand susceptibility to the most damaging hazards. At the opposite end of the management intensity gradient, close-to-nature systems also had low overall risk, due to lower stand value exposed to damage. Intensive even-aged forestry appeared to be subject to the greatest risk, irrespective of tree species and bioclimatic zone. These results seem to be robust as no significant differences in relative

  1. A Risk-Based Approach to Shelter Resilience following Flood and Typhoon Damage in Rural Philippines

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    Victoria Stephenson

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The Philippines is exposed to numerous typhoons every year, each of which poses a potential threat to livelihoods, shelter, and in some cases life. Flooding caused by such events leads to extensive damage to land and buildings, and the impact on rural communities can be severe. The global community is calling for action to address and achieve disaster risk reduction for communities and people exposed to such events. Achieving this requires an understanding of the nature of the risks that flooding and typhoons pose to these communities and their homes. This paper presents the findings from a field based case study assessment of three rural settlements in the Philippines, where typhoons and associated flooding in recent years has caused significant damage to houses and livelihoods, leading to the reconstruction of homes that more often than not reproduce similar structural vulnerabilities as were there before these hazards occurred. This work presents a methodology for risk assessment of such structures profiling the flood and wind hazards and measuring physical vulnerability and the experience of communities affected. The aim of the work is to demonstrate a method for identifying risks in these communities, and seeks to address the challenge faced by practitioners of assisting communities in rebuilding their homes in more resilient ways. The work set out here contributes to the discussion about how best to enable practitioners and communities to achieve the sought for risk reduction and especially highlights the role that geoscience and engineering can have in achieving this ambition.

  2. TREES OF DAMAGES AS A MODEL OF RISKS ASSESSMENT FOR AVAILABILITY LOSSES AFTER CHANGES IN FINANCIAL INFORMATION SYSTEMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. A. Arustamov

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with the methodology for risks assessment of availability losses in financial information systems after changes made in them by using trees of damages. A description of damages tree generation for each identified possible event is presented that potentially can lead to the system availability loss. An example is given, illustrating the methodology application that gives the possibility to choose the optimal software testing strategy.

  3. Femoral nerve damage (image)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The femoral nerve is located in the leg and supplies the muscles that assist help straighten the leg. It supplies sensation ... leg. One risk of damage to the femoral nerve is pelvic fracture. Symptoms of femoral nerve damage ...

  4. Adaptation of a Counseling Intervention to Address Multiple Cancer Risk Factors among Overweight/Obese Latino Smokers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castro, Yessenia; Fernández, Maria E.; Strong, Larkin L.; Stewart, Diana W.; Krasny, Sarah; Hernandez Robles, Eden; Heredia, Natalia; Spears, Claire A.; Correa-Fernández, Virmarie; Eakin, Elizabeth; Resnicow, Ken; Basen-Engquist, Karen; Wetter, David W.

    2015-01-01

    More than 60% of cancer-related deaths in the United States are attributable to tobacco use, poor nutrition, and physical inactivity, and these risk factors tend to cluster together. Thus, strategies for cancer risk reduction would benefit from addressing multiple health risk behaviors. We adapted an evidence-based intervention grounded in social…

  5. Coupled analysis of building damage due to tunneling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Giardina, G.; Hendriks, M.A.N.; Rots, J.G.

    2009-01-01

    Excavation works in urban areas require a preliminary risk damage assessment. In historical cities, the prediction of building response to settlements is necessary to reduce the risk of damage of the architectural heritage. The current method used to predict the building damage due to ground

  6. Climate change-related risks and adaptation strategies as perceived in dairy cattle farming systems in Tunisia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hajer Amamou

    Full Text Available The perception of risks due to climate change by farmers and the measures they take to address those risks are of paramount importance in policy-making if the implementations of targeted adaptation and mitigation strategies are to be economically and environmentally sustainable. This study focused on Tunisian dairy farmers’ perceptions of the risks and the actions taken to cope with changes attributable to climate change. Using a bottom-up approach, 566 surveys were carried out randomly among dairy farmers throughout Tunisia. A total of 70 diagnostic variables relating to farm characteristics, resources, management, performances and profit, in addition to climate change risk perception and adaptation strategies, were identified and analyzed. Using multivariate statistical analysis, four dairy farming groups were identified. The largest proportions of farmers belonged to the two above-ground dairy systems: without utilized agricultural areas; and with non-dairy utilized agricultural areas (Clusters 1 and 2. A minority of farmers belonged to medium-sized and large farms that specialized in milk production (Clusters 3 and 4 and has access to sufficient land, water and capital resources. In all the clusters, almost all the farmers perceived that the greatest impact of climate change would be on cow performance and forage production. The attitudes of the farmers towards adaptation to climate change are associated with farm typology. They focused mainly on increasing water capacity for livestock and crop production and improving livestock and housing conditions. The knowledge obtained from this study could be helpful for decision-makers and stakeholders in efforts to develop policies for farm management practices that address climate change and can be adapted to the country’s diverse farming systems. Keywords: Dairy farming system, Typology, Adaptation, Climate change

  7. Adaptation of the migrant worker’s body to the occupational risk factors from the position of functional system of P.K. Anokhin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    М. Khodzhiev

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The adverse factors of labor process of migrants were studied as the factors of risk of formation of unsatisfactory adaptation and damage to health. The results of the study of adaptation of migrants to the labor process from the standpoint of the theory of functional systems were presented. The first subsystem of physical activities and neuro-emotional tension of labor determines the formation of certain stages of the adaptation process in terms of heart rate variability (the second sub-system. The result of migrant workers’ sympathetic chain of regulation’s activity level shows that the adaptive stress syndrome on the physiological indicators is expressed in a change of heart rate variability: different levels of stress index of SI associated with high physical (muscle, neuro-emotional stresses; marked increase in the power of spectrum of very low-frequency component (VLF, while the increase in heart rate. The features of the functional state of the body and the degree of adaptation in terms of activity of regulatory systems – PARS (optimal 1.19 ± 0.28; allowable stress 40.5 ± 0.62; overvoltage 6.21 ± 0.82 points were determined. On the basis of the production studies of migrant workers, the approaches to quantitative evaluation to the degree of adaptation of workers to the labor process associated with the combined effects of physical, neural and emotional labor intensity on the human body were science-based and developed. The degree of stress adaptation process corresponds to the stage of self-control (optimum stress activation (allowable stress, the mobilization of the 1st, 2nd, 3-th degree (degrees of over-stress of 1,2,3 degrees. Unfavorable stage of mobilization of 2–3 degrees of migrant workers was determined (an increase in the stress index S1, PARS indicator, the relative power of VLF range, a reduction in the SDNN. Events of medical and social support represent the third sub-system in the general system theory.

  8. Tree-based flood damage modeling of companies: Damage processes and model performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sieg, Tobias; Vogel, Kristin; Merz, Bruno; Kreibich, Heidi

    2017-07-01

    Reliable flood risk analyses, including the estimation of damage, are an important prerequisite for efficient risk management. However, not much is known about flood damage processes affecting companies. Thus, we conduct a flood damage assessment of companies in Germany with regard to two aspects. First, we identify relevant damage-influencing variables. Second, we assess the prediction performance of the developed damage models with respect to the gain by using an increasing amount of training data and a sector-specific evaluation of the data. Random forests are trained with data from two postevent surveys after flood events occurring in the years 2002 and 2013. For a sector-specific consideration, the data set is split into four subsets corresponding to the manufacturing, commercial, financial, and service sectors. Further, separate models are derived for three different company assets: buildings, equipment, and goods and stock. Calculated variable importance values reveal different variable sets relevant for the damage estimation, indicating significant differences in the damage process for various company sectors and assets. With an increasing number of data used to build the models, prediction errors decrease. Yet the effect is rather small and seems to saturate for a data set size of several hundred observations. In contrast, the prediction improvement achieved by a sector-specific consideration is more distinct, especially for damage to equipment and goods and stock. Consequently, sector-specific data acquisition and a consideration of sector-specific company characteristics in future flood damage assessments is expected to improve the model performance more than a mere increase in data.

  9. Analysis of coastal protection under rising flood risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Megan J. Lickley

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Infrastructure located along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts is exposed to rising risk of flooding from sea level rise, increasing storm surge, and subsidence. In these circumstances coastal management commonly based on 100-year flood maps assuming current climatology is no longer adequate. A dynamic programming cost–benefit analysis is applied to the adaptation decision, illustrated by application to an energy facility in Galveston Bay. Projections of several global climate models provide inputs to estimates of the change in hurricane and storm surge activity as well as the increase in sea level. The projected rise in physical flood risk is combined with estimates of flood damage and protection costs in an analysis of the multi-period nature of adaptation choice. The result is a planning method, using dynamic programming, which is appropriate for investment and abandonment decisions under rising coastal risk.

  10. An integrated method for assessing climate-related risks and adaptation alternatives in urban areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yvonne Andersson-Sköld

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The urban environment is a complex structure with interlinked social, ecological and technical structures. Global warming is expected to have a broad variety of impacts, which will add to the complexity. Climate changes will force adaptation, to reduce climate-related risks. Adaptation measures can address one aspect at the time, or aim for a holistic approach to avoid maladaptation. This paper presents a systematic, integrated approach for assessing alternatives for reducing the risks of heat waves, flooding and air pollution in urban settings, with the aim of reducing the risk of maladaptation. The study includes strategies covering different spatial scales, and both the current climate situation and the climate predicted under climate change scenarios. The adaptation strategies investigated included increasing vegetation; selecting density, height and colour of buildings; and retreat or resist (defend against sea-level rise. Their effectiveness was assessed with regard to not only flooding, heat stress and air quality but also with regard to resource use, emissions to air (incl. GHG, soil and water, and people’s perceptions and vulnerability. The effectiveness of the strategies were ranked on a common scale (from −3 to 3 in an integrated assessment. Integrated assessments are recommended, as they help identify the most sustainable solutions, but to reduce the risk of maladaptation they require experts from a variety of disciplines. The most generally applicable recommendation, derived from the integrated assessment here, taking into account both expertise from different municipal departments, literature surveys, life cycle assessments and publics perceptions, is to increase the urban greenery, as it contributes to several positive aspects such as heat stress mitigation, air quality improvement, effective storm-water and flood-risk management, and it has several positive social impacts. The most favourable alternative was compact, mid

  11. A Simplified Algorithm for Statistical Investigation of Damage Spreading

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gecow, Andrzej

    2009-01-01

    On the way to simulating adaptive evolution of complex system describing a living object or human developed project, a fitness should be defined on node states or network external outputs. Feedbacks lead to circular attractors of these states or outputs which make it difficult to define a fitness. The main statistical effects of adaptive condition are the result of small change tendency and to appear, they only need a statistically correct size of damage initiated by evolutionary change of system. This observation allows to cut loops of feedbacks and in effect to obtain a particular statistically correct state instead of a long circular attractor which in the quenched model is expected for chaotic network with feedback. Defining fitness on such states is simple. We calculate only damaged nodes and only once. Such an algorithm is optimal for investigation of damage spreading i.e. statistical connections of structural parameters of initial change with the size of effected damage. It is a reversed-annealed method--function and states (signals) may be randomly substituted but connections are important and are preserved. The small damages important for adaptive evolution are correctly depicted in comparison to Derrida annealed approximation which expects equilibrium levels for large networks. The algorithm indicates these levels correctly. The relevant program in Pascal, which executes the algorithm for a wide range of parameters, can be obtained from the author.

  12. Dynamics of combined forest damage risks for 21st century (SRES A1B, B1)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panferov, Oleg; Merklein, Johannes; Sogachev, Andrey; Junghans, Udo; Ahrends, Bernd

    2010-05-01

    of forest ecosystems, wind loading on trees and biotic damage for several tree species and typical soil types. The damage risks a certain forest stand at a given soil results from daily combinations of air and soil temperatures, soil water characteristics, static and gust wind loads on trees with dynamic LAI and of soil texture. Some damaged stands show higher vulnerability and thus - positive feedbacks to climate forcing (Vygodskaya et al., 2007). Therefore, changes of microclimate in remaining stands after changes in forest structure are taken into account. Model output is aggregated to 30-years periods and compared to "present conditions" of 1981-2010. The results show considerable increment of both biotic and abiotic risks towards 2100 relatively to "present" caused by weak changes in precipitation and wind patterns and strong increase of mean air temperature and soil temperatures. It is shown, e.g. that the wind- damage-induced changes of structure and microclimate provide a positive feedback i.e. - increase the probability of the next damage event. The study was financed by BMBF within the frames of joint project "Decision Support System - Forest and Climate Change" (DSS-WuK) and by Grant of Ministry for Science and Culture of Lower Saxony "KLIFF". We gratefully acknowledge this support.

  13. Earthquake damage to underground facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pratt, H.R.; Hustrulid, W.A.; Stephenson, D.E.

    1978-11-01

    The potential seismic risk for an underground nuclear waste repository will be one of the considerations in evaluating its ultimate location. However, the risk to subsurface facilities cannot be judged by applying intensity ratings derived from the surface effects of an earthquake. A literature review and analysis were performed to document the damage and non-damage due to earthquakes to underground facilities. Damage from earthquakes to tunnels, s, and wells and damage (rock bursts) from mining operations were investigated. Damage from documented nuclear events was also included in the study where applicable. There are very few data on damage in the subsurface due to earthquakes. This fact itself attests to the lessened effect of earthquakes in the subsurface because mines exist in areas where strong earthquakes have done extensive surface damage. More damage is reported in shallow tunnels near the surface than in deep mines. In mines and tunnels, large displacements occur primarily along pre-existing faults and fractures or at the surface entrance to these facilities.Data indicate vertical structures such as wells and shafts are less susceptible to damage than surface facilities. More analysis is required before seismic criteria can be formulated for the siting of a nuclear waste repository

  14. Oxidative damage markers are significantly associated with the carotid artery intima-media thickness after controlling for conventional risk factors of atherosclerosis in men.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jin-Ha Yoon

    Full Text Available This study aimed to assess the association between oxidative damage markers and carotid artery intima-media thickness (CIMT after controlling for conventional risk factors of atherosclerosis in multiple logistic regression models.Fifty-one case male participants (CIMT ≥ 0.9 mm were enrolled during their visits to Korean Genomic Rural Cohort Study of Wonju centers between May 1 and August 31, 2011, along with 51 control participants (CIMT < 0.9 mm selected using frequency matching by age group. The levels of oxidative damage markers, 8-hydroxy-2'-deoxyquuanosine (8-OHdG, malondialdehyde (MDA, and 8-iso-prostaglandin F2α (Isoprostane, were measured. Conditional logistic regression models were used to evaluate relative relationships between the oxidative damage markers and the risk of high CIMT.The markers of oxidative lipid (Isoprostane and MDA and DNA (8-OHdG damage were associated with CIMT after controlling for the conventional risk factors, including age, low density lipoprotein, body mass index, smoking history, alcohol consumption, and metabolic syndrome (ORs [95% CI] for Isoprostane: 3rd tertile, 8.47 [2.59-27.67]; for MDA: 3rd tertile, 8.47 [2.59-27.67]; for 8-OHdG: 3rd tertile, 5.58 [1.79-17.33]. When all the oxidative damage markers were incorporated in the same logistic regression model, only Isoprostane was significantly related to CIMT (OR [95% CI]: 4.22 [1.31-13.53] in 2nd tertile and 14.21 [3.34-60.56] in 3rd tertile.In this nested case-control study, the oxidative damage markers of lipid and DNA were associated with CIMT even after controlling for the conventional risk factors of cardiovascular diseases.

  15. Religiousness/spirituality do not necessarily matter: Effect on risk perception and adaptive strategies in the semi-arid region of NE Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Regina Célia da Silva Oliveira

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The impact of environmental changes is a major threat to livelihoods, especially for small farmers in semi-arid regions. Therefore, local communities undertake efforts to cope with these new environmental conditions and researchers try to understand the limits of possible adaptive strategies. Religiousness/spirituality are two important factors that can influence environmental awareness and adaptive responses to risks caused by natural phenomena. However, studies addressing the relationship between such factors are either scarce or based on anecdotal information. This article discusses the influence of religiousness/spirituality on the perception of environmental risks by farmers in a rural community in Brazil's northeast region, and their knowledge of adaptive strategies to deal with such concerns. Religiousness/spirituality can positively or negatively influence the perception of risk and knowledge of adaptive strategies when facing environmental uncertainty. We note that dimensions of religiousness/spirituality such as religious history, values/beliefs, commitment, and daily spiritual experiences influence wealth and the sharing of natural perceived risks, as well as adaptive strategies. Based on our results, we conclude that religiousness/spirituality dimensions exert both positive and negative effects on the perception of environmental risks and ways of coping with the impacts of rapid environmental changes.

  16. Hurricane Sandy and Adaptation Pathways in New York: Lessons from a First-Responder City

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Solecki, William

    2014-01-01

    Two central issues of climate change have become increasingly evident: Climate change will significantly affect cities; and rapid global urbanization will increase dramatically the number of individuals, amount of critical infrastructure, and means of economic production that are exposed and vulnerable to dynamic climate risks. Simultaneously, cities in many settings have begun to emerge as early adopters of climate change action strategies including greenhouse gas mitigation and adaptation. The objective of this paper is to examine and analyze how officials of one city - the City of New York - have integrated a flexible adaptation pathways approach into the municipality's climate action strategy. This approach has been connected with the City's ongoing response to Hurricane Sandy, which struck in the October 2012 and resulted in damages worth more than US$19 billion. A case study narrative methodology utilizing the Wise et al. conceptual framework (see this volume) is used to evaluate the effectiveness of the flexible adaptation pathways approach in New York City. The paper finds that Hurricane Sandy serves as a ''tipping point'' leading to transformative adaptation due to the explicit inclusion of increasing climate change risks in the rebuilding effort. The potential for transferability of the approach to cities varying in size and development stage is discussed, with elements useful across cities including the overall concept of flexible adaptation pathways, the inclusion of the full metropolitan region in the planning process, and the co-generation of climate-risk information by stakeholders and scientists.

  17. Multivariate pluvial flood damage models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Ootegem, Luc; Verhofstadt, Elsy; Van Herck, Kristine; Creten, Tom

    2015-01-01

    Depth–damage-functions, relating the monetary flood damage to the depth of the inundation, are commonly used in the case of fluvial floods (floods caused by a river overflowing). We construct four multivariate damage models for pluvial floods (caused by extreme rainfall) by differentiating on the one hand between ground floor floods and basement floods and on the other hand between damage to residential buildings and damage to housing contents. We do not only take into account the effect of flood-depth on damage, but also incorporate the effects of non-hazard indicators (building characteristics, behavioural indicators and socio-economic variables). By using a Tobit-estimation technique on identified victims of pluvial floods in Flanders (Belgium), we take into account the effect of cases of reported zero damage. Our results show that the flood depth is an important predictor of damage, but with a diverging impact between ground floor floods and basement floods. Also non-hazard indicators are important. For example being aware of the risk just before the water enters the building reduces content damage considerably, underlining the importance of warning systems and policy in this case of pluvial floods. - Highlights: • Prediction of damage of pluvial floods using also non-hazard information • We include ‘no damage cases’ using a Tobit model. • The damage of flood depth is stronger for ground floor than for basement floods. • Non-hazard indicators are especially important for content damage. • Potential gain of policies that increase awareness of flood risks

  18. Multivariate pluvial flood damage models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Van Ootegem, Luc [HIVA — University of Louvain (Belgium); SHERPPA — Ghent University (Belgium); Verhofstadt, Elsy [SHERPPA — Ghent University (Belgium); Van Herck, Kristine; Creten, Tom [HIVA — University of Louvain (Belgium)

    2015-09-15

    Depth–damage-functions, relating the monetary flood damage to the depth of the inundation, are commonly used in the case of fluvial floods (floods caused by a river overflowing). We construct four multivariate damage models for pluvial floods (caused by extreme rainfall) by differentiating on the one hand between ground floor floods and basement floods and on the other hand between damage to residential buildings and damage to housing contents. We do not only take into account the effect of flood-depth on damage, but also incorporate the effects of non-hazard indicators (building characteristics, behavioural indicators and socio-economic variables). By using a Tobit-estimation technique on identified victims of pluvial floods in Flanders (Belgium), we take into account the effect of cases of reported zero damage. Our results show that the flood depth is an important predictor of damage, but with a diverging impact between ground floor floods and basement floods. Also non-hazard indicators are important. For example being aware of the risk just before the water enters the building reduces content damage considerably, underlining the importance of warning systems and policy in this case of pluvial floods. - Highlights: • Prediction of damage of pluvial floods using also non-hazard information • We include ‘no damage cases’ using a Tobit model. • The damage of flood depth is stronger for ground floor than for basement floods. • Non-hazard indicators are especially important for content damage. • Potential gain of policies that increase awareness of flood risks.

  19. Can `loss and damage' carry the load?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verchick, Robert R. M.

    2018-05-01

    Even assuming a heroic rush towards carbon reduction and adaptation, some regions of the world will be hammered hard by climate impacts. Thus, a global consensus now sees the need for a supplemental plan to deal with the kind of harms that cannot be avoided-what Parties call `loss and damage'. For a loss-and-damage plan to work, it must be capable of carrying the load, the load being whatever minimal standards that morality and political consensus require. But if residual risk climbs too high, it will fall short of even the most basic expectations. The Paris Agreement calls for holding the rise in global average temperature to `well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels', while working to limit the increase to 1.5°C. How much difference is in that half-degree? From the point of view of residual risk, quite a lot. According to a 2016 study published by the European Geosciences Union, a jump from 1.5°C to 2°C could produce outsize impacts, particularly in tropical latitudes. That difference could mark the line between a plan that is politically and morally defensible and one that is not. At the very least, the difference is enough to inform the design and expectations of any future plan. This article is part of the theme issue `The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'.

  20. Reducing the Risk of Damage to Power Transformers of 110 kV and Above Accompanying Internal Short Circuits

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    L’vova, M. M. [JSC “R& D Center at Federal Grid Company of the Unified Power System” (Russian Federation); L’vov, S. Yu. [Presselektro LLC (Russian Federation); Komarov, V. B. [IPCE RAS (Russian Federation); Lyut’ko, E. O. [JSC “R& D Center at Federal Grid Company of the Unified Power System” (Russian Federation); Vdoviko, V. P. [EMA Ltd. (Russian Federation); Demchenko, V. V. [JSC “Boguchanskaya HPP” (Russian Federation); Belyaev, S. G. [PKF Konif Ltd. (Russian Federation); Savel’ev, V. A. [Ivanovo State Power University (Russian Federation); L’vov, M. Yu., E-mail: timashova@nte-power.ru; L’vov, Yu. N. [JSC “R& D Center at Federal Grid Company of the Unified Power System” (Russian Federation)

    2015-03-15

    Methods of increasing the operating reliability of power transformers, autotransformers and shunting reactors in order to reduce the risk of damage, which accompany internal short circuits and equipment fires and explosions, are considered.

  1. [Stress-induced cellular adaptive mutagenesis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Linjiang; Li, Qi

    2014-04-01

    The adaptive mutations exist widely in the evolution of cells, such as antibiotic resistance mutations of pathogenic bacteria, adaptive evolution of industrial strains, and cancerization of human somatic cells. However, how these adaptive mutations are generated is still controversial. Based on the mutational analysis models under the nonlethal selection conditions, stress-induced cellular adaptive mutagenesis is proposed as a new evolutionary viewpoint. The hypothetic pathway of stress-induced mutagenesis involves several intracellular physiological responses, including DNA damages caused by accumulation of intracellular toxic chemicals, limitation of DNA MMR (mismatch repair) activity, upregulation of general stress response and activation of SOS response. These responses directly affect the accuracy of DNA replication from a high-fidelity manner to an error-prone one. The state changes of cell physiology significantly increase intracellular mutation rate and recombination activity. In addition, gene transcription under stress condition increases the instability of genome in response to DNA damage, resulting in transcription-associated DNA mutagenesis. In this review, we summarize these two molecular mechanisms of stress-induced mutagenesis and transcription-associated DNA mutagenesis to help better understand the mechanisms of adaptive mutagenesis.

  2. Impact induced damage assessment by means of Lamb wave image processing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kudela, Pawel; Radzienski, Maciej; Ostachowicz, Wieslaw

    2018-03-01

    The aim of this research is an analysis of full wavefield Lamb wave interaction with impact-induced damage at various impact energies in order to find out the limitation of the wavenumber adaptive image filtering method. In other words, the relation between impact energy and damage detectability will be shown. A numerical model based on the time domain spectral element method is used for modeling of Lamb wave propagation and interaction with barely visible impact damage in a carbon-epoxy laminate. Numerical studies are followed by experimental research on the same material with an impact damage induced by various energy and also a Teflon insert simulating delamination. Wavenumber adaptive image filtering and signal processing are used for damage visualization and assessment for both numerical and experimental full wavefield data. It is shown that it is possible to visualize and assess the impact damage location, size and to some extent severity by using the proposed technique.

  3. Barriers to reducing climate enhanced disaster risks in Least Developed Country-Small Islands through anticipatory adaptation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natasha Kuruppu

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Small Island Developing States (SIDS classified as Least Developed Countries (LDCs are particularly vulnerable to the projected impacts of climate change. Given their particular vulnerabilities, climate adaptation investments are being made through both national and international efforts to build the capacity of various sectors and communities to reduce climate risks and associated disasters. Despite these efforts, reducing climate risks is not free of various challenges and barriers. This paper aims to synthesise a set of critical socio-economic barriers present at various spatial scales that are specific to Least Developed Country SIDS. It also aims to identify the processes that give rise to these barriers. Drawing on theories from natural hazards, a systematic literature review method was adopted to identify and organise the set of barriers by focussing on both academic papers and grey literature. The data revealed a notable lack of studies on adaptation within African and Caribbean LDC-SIDS. In general, there was a paucity of academic as well as grey literature being produced by authors from LDC-SIDS to challenge existing discourses related to adaptation barriers. The most common barriers identified included those related to governance, technical, cognitive and cultural. Three key findings can be drawn from this study in relation to formal adaptation initiatives. Firstly, the lack of focus on the adaptive capacity needs of Local Government or Island Councils and communities was a key barrier to ensure success of adaptation interventions. Secondly, international adaptation funding modalities did little to address root causes of vulnerability or support system transformations. These funds were geared at supporting sectoral level adaptation initiatives for vulnerable natural resource sectors such as water, biodiversity and coastal zones. Thirdly, there is a need to recognise the significance of cultural knowledge and practices in shaping

  4. Barriers to reducing climate enhanced disaster risks in Least Developed Country-Small Islands through anticipatory adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuruppu, N.; Willie, R.

    2015-12-01

    Small Island Developing States (SIDS) classified as Least Developed Countries (LDCs) are particularly vulnerable to the projected impacts of climate change. Given their particular vulnerabilities, climate adaptation investments are being made through both national and international efforts to build the capacity of various sectors and communities to reduce climate risks and associated disasters. Despite these efforts, reducing climate risks is not free of various challenges and barriers. This paper aims to synthesise a set of critical socio-economic barriers present at various spatial scales that are specific to Least Developed Country SIDS. It also aims to identify the processes that give rise to these barriers. Drawing on theories from natural hazards, a systematic literature review method was adopted to identify and organise the set of barriers by focussing both on academic papers and grey literature. The data revealed a notable lack of studies on adaptation within African and Caribbean LDC-SIDS. In general, there was a paucity of academic as well as grey literature being produced by authors from LDC-SIDS to challenge existing discourses related to adaptation barriers. The most common barriers identified included those related to governance, technical, cognitive and cultural. Three key findings can be drawn from this study in relation to formal adaptation initiatives. Firstly, the lack of focus on the adaptive capacity needs of Local Government or Island Councils and communities was a key barrier to ensuring success of adaptation interventions. Secondly, international adaptation funding modalities did little to address root causes of vulnerability or support system transformations. These funds were geared at supporting sectoral level adaptation initiatives for vulnerable natural resource sectors such as water, biodiversity and coastal zones. Thirdly, there is a need to recognise the significance of cultural knowledge and practices in shaping adaptive choices of

  5. Ensuring Success of Adaptive Control Research Through Project Lifecycle Risk Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pavlock, Kate M.

    2011-01-01

    Lessons Learne: 1. Design-out unnecessary risk to prevent excessive mitigation management during flight. 2. Consider iterative checkouts to confirm or improve human factor characteristics. 3. Consider the total flight test profile to uncover unanticipated human-algorithm interactions. 4. Consider test card cadence as a metric to assess test readiness. 5. Full-scale flight test is critical to development, maturation, and acceptance of adaptive control laws for operational use.

  6. Identifying Students at Risk: An Examination of Computer-Adaptive Measures and Latent Class Growth Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keller-Margulis, Milena; McQuillin, Samuel D.; Castañeda, Juan Javier; Ochs, Sarah; Jones, John H.

    2018-01-01

    Multitiered systems of support depend on screening technology to identify students at risk. The purpose of this study was to examine the use of a computer-adaptive test and latent class growth analysis (LCGA) to identify students at risk in reading with focus on the use of this methodology to characterize student performance in screening.…

  7. Adaptive aspirations : Performance consequences of risk preferences at extremes and alternative reference groups

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hu, S.; Blettner, D.P.; Bettis, R.

    2011-01-01

    Goals or aspirations and their relationships to risk taking and performance are important issues in both psychology and strategic management. The concept of adaptive aspirations, as discussed in Cyert and March's Behavioral Theory of the Firm, has long been a topic of interest in both fields.

  8. Flood risk mitigation in Europe: how far away are we from the aspired forms of adaptive governance?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marie Fournier

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Flood mitigation is a strategy that is growing in importance across Europe. This growth corresponds with an increasing emphasis on the need to learn to live with floods and make space for water. Flood mitigation measures aim at reducing the likelihood and magnitude of flooding and complement flood defenses. They are being put in place through the implementation of actions that accommodate (rather than resist water, such as natural flood management or adapted housing. The strategy has gained momentum over the past 20 years in an effort to improve the sustainability of flood risk management (FRM and facilitate the diversification of FRM in the pursuit of societal resilience to flooding. Simultaneously, it is increasingly argued that adaptive forms of governance are best placed to address the uncertainty and complexity associated with social-ecological systems responding to environmental challenges, such as flooding. However, there have been few attempts to examine the extent to which current flood risk governance, and flood mitigation specifically, reflect these aspired forms of adaptive governance. Drawing from EU research into flood risk governance, conducted within the STAR-FLOOD project, we examine the governance of flood mitigation in six European countries: Belgium, England, France, the Netherlands, Poland, and Sweden. Using in-depth policy and legal analysis, as well as interviews with key actors, the governance and implementation of flood mitigation in these countries is evaluated from the normative viewpoint of whether, and to what extent, it can be characterized as adaptive governance. We identify five criteria of adaptive governance based on a comprehensive literature review and apply these to each country to determine the "distance" between current governance arrangements and adaptive governance. In conclusion, the flood mitigation strategy provides various opportunities for actors to further pursue forms of adaptive governance. The

  9. Mapping Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation: progress in South Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Storie, Judith M.

    2018-05-01

    Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) and Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) strategies in Africa are on the increase. South Africa is no different, and a number of strategies have seen the light in aid of reducing disaster risk and adapting to cli-mate change. The DRR and CCA processes include the mapping of location and extent of known and potential hazards, vulnerable communities and environments, and opportunities that may exist to manage these risks. However, the mapping of often fast-changing urban and rural spaces in a standardized manner presents challenges that relate to processes, scales of data capture, level of detail recorded, software and compatibility related to data formats and net-works, human resources skills and understanding, as well as differences in approaches to the nature in which the map-ping processes are executed and spatial data is managed. As a result, projects and implementation of strategies that re-late to the use of such data is affected, and the success of activities based on the data may therefore be uncertain. This paper investigates data custodianship and data categories that is processed and managed across South Africa. It explores the process and content management of disaster risk and climate change related information and defines the challenges that exist in terms of governance. The paper also comments on the challenges and potential solutions for the situation as it gives rise to varying degrees of accuracy, effectiveness for use, and applicability of the spatial data available to affect DRR and improve the value of CCA programmes in the region.

  10. Efficient prevention and compensation of catastrophic risks. The example of damage by nuclear accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vanden Borre, T.

    2001-01-01

    This book deals with the liability for damage due to catastrophic risks. The nuclear liability law serves as an example of such a catastrophic risk. The question that we tried to answer is what an efficient compensation scheme for catastrophic risks should look like. This question is dealt with both from a law and an economic point of view and from a comparative point of view. The main element in comparing the laws in different countries is the comparison between Belgian and Dutch civil (nuclear) liability law. But also American nuclear liability law is part of the analysis (the Price-Anderson Act). The book consists of four parts: (nuclear) civil liability law, legal and economic approach, analysis of other compensation systems and conclusions. The big themes in this book are therefore civil (nuclear) liability law, insurance law and environmental liability law [nl

  11. Common variants in mismatch repair genes associated with increased risk of sperm DNA damage and male infertility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ji Guixiang

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The mismatch repair (MMR pathway plays an important role in the maintenance of the genome integrity, meiotic recombination and gametogenesis. This study investigated whether genetic variations in MMR genes are associated with an increased risk of sperm DNA damage and male infertility. Methods We selected and genotyped 21 tagging single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs in five MMR genes (MLH1, MLH3, PMS2, MSH4 and MSH5 using the SNPstream 12-plex platform in a case-control study of 1,292 idiopathic infertility patients and 480 fertile controls in a Chinese population. Sperm DNA damage levels were detected with the Tdt-mediated dUTP nick end labelling (TUNEL assay in 450 cases. Fluorescence resonance energy transfer (FRET and co-immunoprecipitation techniques were employed to determine the effects of functional variants. Results One intronic SNP in MLH1 (rs4647269 and two non-synonymous SNPs in PMS2 (rs1059060, Ser775Asn and MSH5 (rs2075789, Pro29Ser seem to be risk factors for the development of azoospermia or oligozoospermia. Meanwhile, we also identified a possible contribution of PMS2 rs1059060 to the risk of male infertility with normal sperm count. Among patients with normal sperm count, MLH1 rs4647269 and PMS2 rs1059060 were associated with increased sperm DNA damage. Functional analysis revealed that the PMS2 rs1059060 can affect the interactions between MLH1 and PMS2. Conclusions Our results provide evidence supporting the involvement of genetic polymorphisms in MMR genes in the aetiology of male infertility.

  12. American archives and climate change: Risks and adaptation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Mazurczyk

    Full Text Available Climate change directly affects the future security of cultural resources. Cultural heritage and in particular, archives, are increasingly at risk of degradation due to climate change threats and triggers. This study evaluated present and future consequences of water-related climate change impacts using a mapping methodology to assess exposure of American archives to incompatible weather extremes. Susceptibility to climate change threats like sea level rise, storm surge, surface water flooding, and humidity, all influenced by a combination of temperature rise and increased precipitation, at a worst-case scenario were assessed for 1232 archival repositories. Results indicate that approximately 98.8% of archives are likely to be affected by at least one climate risk factor, though on average, most archives are at low risk of exposure (90% when risk factors are combined. Future storm surge plus sea level rise was likely to impact 17.7% of archival repositories with 22.1% affected by only storm surge and 4.3% affected by only sea level rise (1.8-m scenario. Fewer archives were likely to be susceptible to surface water flooding (2.4%. More than 90% of archives were estimated to have a temperature change greater than ±1 °C, with 7.5% of sites likely to change by ±10 °C, and 69.5% of archives were likely to receive at least 152 mm more rainfall by 2100 over current annual averages. In terms of sustainability, developing appropriate socio-economic planning schemes that integrate cumulative exposure of archives to future climate patterns is critically important for safeguarding society and its heritage. The outcomes from the risk assessment in this study aid in the decision-making process by promoting strategic adaptation protocols and providing administrators a way to prioritize archival management goals based on the expected severity of future climate change impacts. Keywords: Archives, Climate change, Sea level rise, Storm surge, Cultural

  13. Damage Prediction in Sheet Metal Forming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saanouni, Khemais; Badreddine, Houssem

    2007-01-01

    Ductile (or plastic) damage often occurs during sheet metal forming processes due to the large plastic flow localization. Accordingly, it is crucial for numerical tools, used in the simulation of that processes, to use fully coupled constitutive equations accounting for both hardening and damage. This can be used in both cases, namely to overcome the damage initiation during some sheet metal forming processes as deep drawing, ... or to enhance the damage initiation and growth as in sheet metal cutting. In this paper, a fully coupled constitutive equations accounting for combined isotropic and kinematic hardening as well as the ductile damage is implemented into the general purpose Finite Element code for metal forming simulation. First, the fully coupled anisotropic constitutive equations in the framework of Continuum Damage Mechanics are presented. Attention is paid to the strong coupling between the main mechanical fields as elasto-viscoplasticity, mixed hardening, ductile isotropic damage and contact with friction. The anisotropy of the plastic flow is taken into account using various kinds of quadratic or non quadratic yield criteria in the framework of non associative finite plasticity theory with two types of normality rules. The associated numerical aspects concerning both the local integration of the coupled constitutive equations as well as the (global) equilibrium integration schemes are presented. The local integration is outlined thanks to the Newton iterative scheme applied to a reduced system of 2 equations. For the global resolution of the initial and boundary value problem, the classical dynamic explicit (DE) scheme with an adaptive time step control is used. The numerical implementation of the damage is made in such a manner that calculations can be executed with or without damage effect, i.e. fully coupled or uncoupled calculations. For the 2D processes an advanced adaptive meshing procedure is used in order to enhance the numerical solution and

  14. Adaptive Failure Identification for Healthcare Risk Analysis and Its Application on E-Healthcare

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kuo-Chung Chu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available To satisfy the requirement for diverse risk preferences, we propose a generic risk priority number (GRPN function that assigns a risk weight to each parameter such that they represent individual organization/department/process preferences for the parameters. This research applies GRPN function-based model to differentiate the types of risk, and primary data are generated through simulation. We also conduct sensitivity analysis on correlation and regression to compare it with the traditional RPN (TRPN. The proposed model outperforms the TRPN model and provides a practical, effective, and adaptive method for risk evaluation. In particular, the defined GRPN function offers a new method to prioritize failure modes in failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA. The different risk preferences considered in the healthcare example show that the modified FMEA model can take into account the various risk factors and prioritize failure modes more accurately. In addition, the model also can apply to a generic e-healthcare service environment with a hierarchical architecture.

  15. BYSTANDER EFFECTS GENOMIC INSTABILITY, ADAPTIVE RESPONSE AND CANCER RISK ASSESSMENT FOR RADIAION AND CHEMICAL EXPOSURES

    Science.gov (United States)

    BYSTANDER EFFECTS, GENOMIC INSTABILITY, ADAPTIVE RESPONSE AND CANCER RISK ASSESSMENT FOR RADIATION AND CHEMICAL EXPOSURESR. Julian PrestonEnvironmental Carcinogenesis Division, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, N.C. 27711, USAThere ...

  16. Context-dependent planktivory: interacting effects of turbidity and predation risk on adaptive foraging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pangle, Kevin L.; Malinich, Timothy D.; Bunnell, David B.; DeVries, Dennis R.; Ludsin, Stuart A.

    2012-01-01

    By shaping species interactions, adaptive phenotypic plasticity can profoundly influence ecosystems. Predicting such outcomes has proven difficult, however, owing in part to the dependence of plasticity on the environmental context. Of particular relevance are environmental factors that affect sensory performance in organisms in ways that alter the tradeoffs associated with adaptive phenotypic responses. We explored the influence of turbidity, which simultaneously and differentially affects the sensory performance of consumers at multiple trophic levels, on the indirect effect of a top predator (piscivorous fish) on a basal prey resource (zooplankton) that is mediated through changes in the plastic foraging behavior of an intermediate consumer (zooplanktivorous fish). We first generated theoretical predictions of the adaptive foraging response of a zooplanktivore across wide gradients of turbidity and predation risk by a piscivore. Our model predicted that predation risk can change the negative relationship between intermediate consumer foraging and turbidity into a humped-shaped (unimodal) one in which foraging is low in both clear and highly turbid conditions due to foraging-related risk and visual constraints, respectively. Consequently, the positive trait-mediated indirect effect (TMIE) of the top predator on the basal resource is predicted to peak at low turbidity and decline thereafter until it reaches an asymptote of zero at intermediate turbidity levels (when foraging equals that which is predicted when the top predator is absent). We used field observations and a laboratory experiment to test our model predictions. In support, we found humped-shaped relationships between planktivory and turbidity for several zooplanktivorous fishes from diverse freshwater ecosystems with predation risk. Further, our experiment demonstrated that predation risk reduced zooplanktivory by yellow perch (Perca flavescens) at a low turbidity, but had no effect on consumption at

  17. Adaptive Remodeling of Achilles Tendon: A Multi-scale Computational Model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stuart R Young

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available While it is known that musculotendon units adapt to their load environments, there is only a limited understanding of tendon adaptation in vivo. Here we develop a computational model of tendon remodeling based on the premise that mechanical damage and tenocyte-mediated tendon damage and repair processes modify the distribution of its collagen fiber lengths. We explain how these processes enable the tendon to geometrically adapt to its load conditions. Based on known biological processes, mechanical and strain-dependent proteolytic fiber damage are incorporated into our tendon model. Using a stochastic model of fiber repair, it is assumed that mechanically damaged fibers are repaired longer, whereas proteolytically damaged fibers are repaired shorter, relative to their pre-damage length. To study adaptation of tendon properties to applied load, our model musculotendon unit is a simplified three-component Hill-type model of the human Achilles-soleus unit. Our model results demonstrate that the geometric equilibrium state of the Achilles tendon can coincide with minimization of the total metabolic cost of muscle activation. The proposed tendon model independently predicts rates of collagen fiber turnover that are in general agreement with in vivo experimental measurements. While the computational model here only represents a first step in a new approach to understanding the complex process of tendon remodeling in vivo, given these findings, it appears likely that the proposed framework may itself provide a useful theoretical foundation for developing valuable qualitative and quantitative insights into tendon physiology and pathology.

  18. [Attaching importance to study on acute health risk assessment and adaptation of air pollution and climate change].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, X M

    2017-03-10

    Air pollution and climate change have become key environmental and public health problems around the world, which poses serious threat to human health. How to assess and mitigate the health risks and increase the adaptation of the public have become an urgent topic of research in this area. The six papers in this issue will provide important and rich information on design, analysis method, indicator selection and setting about acute health risk assessment and adaptation study of air pollution and climate change in China, reflecting the advanced conceptions of multi-center and area-specific study and multi-pollutant causing acute effect study. However, the number and type of the cities included in these studies were still limited. In future, researchers should further expand detailed multi-center and multi-area study coverage, conduct area specific predicting and early warning study and strengthen adaptation study.

  19. Mitigation of fire damage and escalation by fireproofing: A risk-based strategy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tugnoli, Alessandro; Cozzani, Valerio; Di Padova, Annamaria; Barbaresi, Tiziana; Tallone, Fabrizio

    2012-01-01

    Passive fire protection by the application of fireproofing materials is a crucial safety barrier in the prevention of the escalation of fire scenarios. Fireproofing improves the capacity of process items and of support structures to maintain their structural integrity during a fire, preventing or at least delaying the collapse of structural elements. Maintenance and cost issues require, however, to apply such protection only where an actual risk of severe fire scenarios is present. Available methodologies for fireproofing application in on-shore installation do not consider the effect of jet-fires. In the present study, a risk-based methodology aimed at the protection from both pool fire and jet fire escalation was developed. The procedure addresses both the prevention of domino effect and the mitigation of asset damage due to the primary fire scenario. The method is mainly oriented to early design application, allowing the identification of fireproofing zones in the initial phases of lay-out definition.

  20. Global drivers of future river flood risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winsemius, Hessel C.; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.; van Beek, Ludovicus P. H.; Bierkens, Marc F. P.; Bouwman, Arno; Jongman, Brenden; Kwadijk, Jaap C. J.; Ligtvoet, Willem; Lucas, Paul L.; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Ward, Philip J.

    2016-04-01

    Understanding global future river flood risk is a prerequisite for the quantification of climate change impacts and planning effective adaptation strategies. Existing global flood risk projections fail to integrate the combined dynamics of expected socio-economic development and climate change. We present the first global future river flood risk projections that separate the impacts of climate change and socio-economic development. The projections are based on an ensemble of climate model outputs, socio-economic scenarios, and a state-of-the-art hydrologic river flood model combined with socio-economic impact models. Globally, absolute damage may increase by up to a factor of 20 by the end of the century without action. Countries in Southeast Asia face a severe increase in flood risk. Although climate change contributes significantly to the increase in risk in Southeast Asia, we show that it is dwarfed by the effect of socio-economic growth, even after normalization for gross domestic product (GDP) growth. African countries face a strong increase in risk mainly due to socio-economic change. However, when normalized to GDP, climate change becomes by far the strongest driver. Both high- and low-income countries may benefit greatly from investing in adaptation measures, for which our analysis provides a basis.

  1. A multi-criteria risk analysis to evaluate impacts of forest management alternatives on forest health in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jactel, H.; Branco, M.; Duncker, P.; Gardiner, B.; Grodzki, W.; Langström, B.; Moreira, F.; Netherer, S.; Nicoll, B.; Orazio, C.; Piou, D.; Schelhaas, M.J.; Tojic, K.

    2012-01-01

    Due to climate change, forests are likely to face new hazards, which may require adaptation of our existing silvicultural practices. However, it is difficult to imagine a forest management approach that can simultaneously minimize all risks of damage. Multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) has been

  2. THE RISK OF INJURY AND VEHICLE DAMAGE SEVERITY IN VEHICLE MISMATCHED SIDE IMPACT CRASHES IN BRITISH COLUMBIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ediriweera DESAPRIYA

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available As occupant protection offered by new passenger vehicles has improved, there has been growing concern about the harm that some vehicle designs may inflict on occupants of other vehicles with which they collide. Preceding analyses of crash statistics have clearly demonstrated the incompatibility between passenger sedan cars (PS and pick-up trucks (PU involved in side impact crashes in British Columbia. A comparison of light truck and passenger car crashes in previous literature reveals that light truck vehicles inflict greater harm than passenger cars for a number of reasons including their greater weight, stiffer structure, and higher ride height. These features place occupants of passenger cars at a disadvantage should they be involved in a collision with a light truck vehicle. The injury risk for passenger sedan car occupants is greater than the risk for pick-up truck occupants in two-vehicle crashes (Odds Ratio (OR 1.87; 95% Confidence Interval (CI 1.38-2.52. In addition, the risk of vehicle damage severity was increased for passenger cars compared with pick-up trucks (write off vehicle-OR 5.35; 95% CI 3.75-7.63, severely damaged vehicles-OR 5.87; 95% CI 4.79–7.19, moderately damaged vehicles-OR 2.86; 95% CI 2.44–3.36. There is strong justification for injury prevention experts and policy makers to step up motor vehicle crash injury prevention advocacy by implementing evidence-based policies to reduce rates of injury as a result of passenger sedan cars and pick-up trucks involved in side impact crashes in the province of British Columbia.

  3. COREDAR: COmmunicating Risk of sea level rise and Engaging stakeholDers in framing community based Adaptation stRategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amsad Ibrahim Khan, S. K.; Chen, R. S.; de Sherbinin, A. M.; Andimuthu, R.; Kandasamy, P.

    2015-12-01

    Accelerated sea-level rise (SLR) is a major long term outcome of climate change leading to increased inundation of low-lying areas. Particularly, global cities that are located on or near the coasts are often situated in low lying areas and these locations put global cities at greater risk to SLR. Localized flooding will profoundly impact vulnerable communities located in high-risk urban areas. Building community resilience and adapting to SLR is increasingly a high priority for cities. On the other hand, Article 6 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change addresses the importance of climate change communication and engaging stakeholders in decision making process. Importantly, Community Based Adaptation (CBA) experiences emphasize that it is important to understand a community's unique perceptions of their adaptive capacities to identify useful solutions and that scientific and technical information on anticipated coastal climate impacts needs to be translated into a suitable language and format that allows people to be able to participate in adaptation planning. To address this challenge, this study has put forth three research questions from the lens of urban community engagement in SLR adaptation, (1) What, if any, community engagement in addressing SLR occurring in urban areas; (2) What information do communities need and how does it need to be communicated, in order to be better prepared and have a greater sense of agency? and (3) How can government agencies from city to federal levels facilitate community engagement and action?. To answer these questions this study has evolved a framework "COREDAR" (COmmunicating Risk of sea level rise and Engaging stakeholDers in framing community based Adaptation StRategies) to communicate and transfer complex climate data and information such as projected SLR under different scenarios of IPCC AR5, predicted impact of SLR, prioritizing vulnerability, etc. to concerned stakeholders and local communities

  4. Risk-based damage potential and loss estimation of extreme flooding scenarios in the Austrian Federal Province of Tyrol

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Huttenlau

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Within the last decades serious flooding events occurred in many parts of Europe and especially in 2005 the Austrian Federal Province of Tyrol was serious affected. These events in general and particularly the 2005 event have sensitised decision makers and the public. Beside discussions pertaining to protection goals and lessons learnt, the issue concerning potential consequences of extreme and severe flooding events has been raised. Additionally to the general interest of the public, decision makers of the insurance industry, public authorities, and responsible politicians are especially confronted with the question of possible consequences of extreme events. Answers thereof are necessary for the implementation of preventive appropriate risk management strategies. Thereby, property and liability losses reflect a large proportion of the direct tangible losses. These are of great interest for the insurance sector and can be understood as main indicators to interpret the severity of potential events. The natural scientific-technical risk analysis concept provides a predefined and structured framework to analyse the quantities of affected elements at risk, their corresponding damage potentials, and the potential losses. Generally, this risk concept framework follows the process steps hazard analysis, exposition analysis, and consequence analysis. Additionally to the conventional hazard analysis, the potential amount of endangered elements and their corresponding damage potentials were analysed and, thereupon, concrete losses were estimated. These took the specific vulnerability of the various individual elements at risk into consideration. The present flood risk analysis estimates firstly the general exposures of the risk indicators in the study area and secondly analyses the specific exposures and consequences of five extreme event scenarios. In order to precisely identify, localize, and characterize the relevant risk indicators of buildings

  5. The MERINOVA project: MEteorological RIsks as drivers of environmental inNOvation in Agro-ecosystem management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gobin, Anne; Van de vijver, Hans; Zamani, Sepideh; Curnel, Yannick; Planchon, Viviane; Verspecht, Ann; Van Huylenbroeck, Guido

    2014-05-01

    Devastating weather-related events have captured the interest of the general public in Belgium. Extreme weather events such as droughts, heat waves and rain storms are projected to increase both in frequency and magnitude with climate change. Since more than half of the Belgian territory is managed by the agricultural sector, extreme events may have significant impacts on agro-ecosystem services and pose severe limitations to sustainable agricultural land management. The research hypothesis of the MERINOVA project is that meteorological risks act as drivers of environmental innovation in agro-ecosystem management. The major objectives are to characterise extreme meteorological events, assess the impact on Belgian agro-ecosystems, characterise their vulnerability and resilience to these events, and explore innovative adaptation options to agricultural risk management. The project comprises of five major parts that reflect the chain of risks: the hazard, its impact on different agro-ecosystems, vulnerability, risk management and risk communication. Impacts developed from physically based models not only provide information on the state of the damage at any given time, but also assist in understanding the links between different factors causing damage and determining bio-physical vulnerability. Socio-economic impacts enlarge the basis for vulnerability mapping, risk management and adaptation options. The perspective of rising risk-exposure is exacerbated further by more limits to aid received for agricultural damage and an overall reduction of direct income support to farmers. The main findings of each of these project building blocks will be communicated. MERINOVA provides for a robust and flexible framework by demonstrating its performance across Belgian agro-ecosystems, and by ensuring its relevance to policy makers and practitioners. A strong expert and end-user network is established to help disseminating and exploiting project results to meet user needs. The

  6. Exploring adaptation pathways in terms of flood risk management at a city scale – a case study for Shanghai city

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ke Qian

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Cities are vulnerable to flooding and historical events, for instance Hurricane Sandy in 2012, have showed that losses in the cities are costly. In the context of climate change and socio-economic development, future flood risk will inevitably rise; adaptive measures, for instance upgrading of sea dikes and floodwalls, improving drainage systems and implementing green infrastructures, are proposed under the changing environment in the cities. A question of when to implement what measures in the cities over time is then brought up. The approach of dynamic adaptive policy pathways is applied to formulate adaptation pathways for a case study of Shanghai to explore the optimal investment strategy in context of deep uncertainties. Adaptation concept is not only aiming to achieve optimal strategy but also to determine when to implement the measures. The adaptation pathways for three types of floods (coastal flood, river flood and pluvial flood in Shanghai were formulated through a preliminary qualitative analysis. This could provide an insight to the long-term feasibility of adaptive flood risk strategies. This research could provide a rational indication for policy/decision makers on future adaptation strategy at the city scale.

  7. Adapting the coping in deliberation (CODE) framework: a multi-method approach in the context of familial ovarian cancer risk management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Witt, Jana; Elwyn, Glyn; Wood, Fiona; Rogers, Mark T; Menon, Usha; Brain, Kate

    2014-11-01

    To test whether the coping in deliberation (CODE) framework can be adapted to a specific preference-sensitive medical decision: risk-reducing bilateral salpingo-oophorectomy (RRSO) in women at increased risk of ovarian cancer. We performed a systematic literature search to identify issues important to women during deliberations about RRSO. Three focus groups with patients (most were pre-menopausal and untested for genetic mutations) and 11 interviews with health professionals were conducted to determine which issues mattered in the UK context. Data were used to adapt the generic CODE framework. The literature search yielded 49 relevant studies, which highlighted various issues and coping options important during deliberations, including mutation status, risks of surgery, family obligations, physician recommendation, peer support and reliable information sources. Consultations with UK stakeholders confirmed most of these factors as pertinent influences on deliberations. Questions in the generic framework were adapted to reflect the issues and coping options identified. The generic CODE framework was readily adapted to a specific preference-sensitive medical decision, showing that deliberations and coping are linked during deliberations about RRSO. Adapted versions of the CODE framework may be used to develop tailored decision support methods and materials in order to improve patient-centred care. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Peripheral blood lymphocytes: a model for monitoring physiological adaptation to high altitude.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mariggiò, Maria A; Falone, Stefano; Morabito, Caterina; Guarnieri, Simone; Mirabilio, Alessandro; Pilla, Raffaele; Bucciarelli, Tonino; Verratti, Vittore; Amicarelli, Fernanda

    2010-01-01

    Depending on the absolute altitude and the duration of exposure, a high altitude environment induces various cellular effects that are strictly related to changes in oxidative balance. In this study, we used in vitro isolated peripheral blood lymphocytes as biosensors to test the effect of hypobaric hypoxia on seven climbers by measuring the functional activity of these cells. Our data revealed that a 21-day exposure to high altitude (5000 m) (1) increased intracellular Ca(2+) concentration, (2) caused a significant decrease in mitochondrial membrane potential, and (3) despite possible transient increases in intracellular levels of reactive oxygen species, did not significantly change the antioxidant and/or oxidative damage-related status in lymphocytes and serum, assessed by measuring Trolox-equivalent antioxidant capacity, glutathione peroxidase activity, vitamin levels, and oxidatively modified proteins and lipids. Overall, these results suggest that high altitude might cause an impairment in adaptive antioxidant responses. This, in turn, could increase the risk of oxidative-stress-induced cellular damage. In addition, this study corroborates the use of peripheral blood lymphocytes as an easily handled model for monitoring adaptive response to environmental challenge.

  9. Health risks of climate change: An assessment of uncertainties and its implications for adaption policies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wardekker, J.A.; de Jong, A.; van Bree, L.; Turkenburg, W.C.; van der Sluijs, J.P.

    2012-01-01

    Background: Projections of health risks of climate change are surrounded with uncertainties in knowledge. Understanding of these uncertainties will help the selection of appropriate adaptation policies. Methods: We made an inventory of conceivable health impacts of climate change, explored the type

  10. Tornado risk analysis at Savannah River Plant using windspeed damage thresholds and single building strike frequencies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, D.H.; McDonald, J.R.; Twisdale, L.A.

    1985-01-01

    Tornado risk analysis at the Savannah River Plant has taken a two pronged approach: (1) developing a catalogue of damage thresholds as a function of windspeed for processing buildings and other representative site structures; (2) developing a method of estimating, for each building, the probability of a tornado exceeding each damage threshold. Wind resistance of building construction at SRP varies widely depending on the function of the structure. It was recognized that all tornadoes do not necessarily seriously damage buildings, but the damage thresholds were unknown. In order to evaluate the safety of existing structures and properly design new structures, an analysis of tornado resistance was conducted by J.R. McDonald on each process building at SRP and other buildings by type. Damage estimates were catalogued for each Fujita class windspeed interval and windspeeds were catalogued as a function of increased levels of damage. Tornado single point and structure specific strike probabilities for the SRP site were determined by L.A. Twisdale using the TORRISK computer code. To calculate the structure specific strike probability, a correction factor is determined from a set of curves using building area and aspect ratio (length/width relative to north) as parameters. The structure specific probability is then the product of the correction factor and the point probability. The correction factor increases as a function of building size and windspeed. For large buildings (10 5 ft 2 ) and very intense storms (250 mph), the correction factor is equal to or greater than 4. The cumulative probability of a tornado striking any building type (process, personnel, etc.) was also calculated

  11. Assessing frost damages using dynamic models in walnut trees: exposure rather than vulnerability controls frost risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guillaume, Charrier; Isabelle, Chuine; Marc, Bonhomme; Thierry, Améglio

    2018-05-01

    Frost damages develop when exposure overtakes frost vulnerability. Frost risk assessment therefore needs dynamic simulation of frost hardiness using temperature and photoperiod in interaction with developmental stage. Two models, including or not the effect of photoperiod, were calibrated using five years of frost hardiness monitoring (2007-2012), in two locations (low and high elevation) for three walnut genotypes with contrasted phenology and maximum hardiness (Juglans regia cv Franquette, J. regia × nigra 'Early' and 'Late'). The photothermal model predicted more accurate values for all genotypes (efficiency = 0.879; Root Mean Standard Error Predicted (RMSEP) = 2.55 °C) than the thermal model (efficiency = 0.801; RMSEP = 3.24 °C). Predicted frost damages were strongly correlated to minimum temperature of the freezing events (ρ = -0.983) rather than actual frost hardiness (ρ = -0.515), or ratio of phenological stage completion (ρ = 0.336). Higher frost risks are consequently predicted during winter, at high elevation, whereas spring is only risky at low elevation in early genotypes exhibiting faster dehardening rate. However, early frost damages, although of lower value, may negatively affect fruit production the subsequent year (R 2  = 0.381, P = 0.057). These results highlight the interacting pattern between frost exposure and vulnerability at different scales and the necessity of intra-organ studies to understand the time course of frost vulnerability in flower buds along the winter. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  12. Trophic complexity and the adaptive value of damage-induced plant volatiles.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ian Kaplan

    Full Text Available Indirect plant defenses are those facilitating the action of carnivores in ridding plants of their herbivorous consumers, as opposed to directly poisoning or repelling them. Of the numerous and diverse indirect defensive strategies employed by plants, inducible volatile production has garnered the most fascination among plant-insect ecologists. These volatile chemicals are emitted in response to feeding by herbivorous arthropods and serve to guide predators and parasitic wasps to their prey. Implicit in virtually all discussions of plant volatile-carnivore interactions is the premise that plants "call for help" to bodyguards that serve to boost plant fitness by limiting herbivore damage. This, by necessity, assumes a three-trophic level food chain where carnivores benefit plants, a theoretical framework that is conceptually tractable and convenient, but poorly depicts the complexity of food-web dynamics occurring in real communities. Recent work suggests that hyperparasitoids, top consumers acting from the fourth trophic level, exploit the same plant volatile cues used by third trophic level carnivores. Further, hyperparasitoids shift their foraging preferences, specifically cueing in to the odor profile of a plant being damaged by a parasitized herbivore that contains their host compared with damage from an unparasitized herbivore. If this outcome is broadly representative of plant-insect food webs at large, it suggests that damage-induced volatiles may not always be beneficial to plants with major implications for the evolution of anti-herbivore defense and manipulating plant traits to improve biological control in agricultural crops.

  13. Adaptation to Climate Change in Risk and Vulnerability Analysis on a Municipal Level, a basis for further work

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mossberg Sonnek, Karin; Lindberg, Anna; Lindgren, Johan

    2007-12-01

    The aim of Risk and Vulnerability Analysis (RVA) at local authority level in Sweden is to increase the capacity of local authorities to handle crises and to reduce vulnerability in the community. RVA processes could be an appropriate starting-point for discussions on how the community is influenced by climate change and how its effects could be reduced using various adjustment measures. In the report we present four methods: ROSA, MVA, IBERO and the Car Dun AB method. These have all been developed to support Swedish local authority RVA processes. We also present five international frameworks that have been developed by the organisations UNDP, USAID, UKCIP, C-CIARN and CSIRO to help decision-makers and stakeholders to adapt to climate change. Together, these descriptions form a foundation for continuing the work being done within the project Climatools, in which tools are being produced to be used by local authorities in adapting to climate change. In the report, we also discuss the concepts 'risk', 'vulnerability' and 'adaptation' and how analysis of adaptation to climate change has changed in recent years

  14. Woman to Woman (W2W): Adapting an HIV risk reduction intervention for older women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conner, Laneshia R; Engstrom, Malitta; Junious, Eric; Edwards-Knight, Kevin

    2017-05-03

    Woman to Woman (W2W) is a novel adaptation of the Sisters Informing Sisters about Topics on AIDS (SISTA) HIV prevention program. This article describes the process of adapting and piloting W2W based on recommendations from existing HIV prevention research. Six older women, all of whom had histories of homelessness and the majority of whom identified as African American, enrolled in the study, which piloted the adapted intervention and materials, evaluated the acceptability of the program, and assessed the measures related to the intervention. Participants described satisfaction with the program and had high rates of attendance; observations regarding the measures suggest the need to further develop assessments of HIV knowledge, condom use self-efficacy, and risk behaviors in this context.

  15. Cumulative Effects of Several Target Organ Damages in Risk Assessment in Hypertension.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harbaoui, Brahim; Courand, Pierre-Yves; Defforges, Alice; Khettab, Fouad; Milon, Hugues; Girerd, Nicolas; Lantelme, Pierre

    2016-02-01

    The prognostic value of screening multiple target organ damages (TODs) in hypertensive subjects has not been extensively studied. We estimated the prognostic value of considering 3 TODs in estimating the 10-year survival in hypertensive subjects. At baseline 1,848 out of a cohort of 1,963 hypertensive patients had a previous cardiovascular disease (CVD) or assessments of 3 TODs: Modification in Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) 300mg/day, Sokolow index >3.5 mV, and advanced hypertensive retinopathy (grades 3 and 4 of Keith-Wagener-Barker classification). The cohort was divided into 5 groups: 0 TOD (N = 978), 1 TOD (N = 308), 2 TODs (N = 94), 3 TODs (N = 30), and previous CVD (N = 438). After 10 years of follow-up, we observed 418 deaths of which 254 from cardiovascular cause. The adjusted hazard ratios for the major cardiovascular risk factors showed a progressive risk associated with the number of TODs. For all-cause death, the hazard ratios [95% confidence intervals] vs. 0 TOD of the other 4 groups were 1.91 [1.39-2.63], 1.99 [1.28-3.10], 4.33 [2.42-7.72], and 3.09 [2.35-4.05], respectively. For cardiovascular death, the hazard ratios [95% confidence intervals] were of the same order of magnitude: 2.14 [1.38-3.32], 2.12 [1.15-3.89], 4.22 [1.83-9.72], and 4.24 [2.95-6.11], respectively. Our results indicate that hypertensive patients with several TODs had a worst outcome. Thus, it seems important to screen for multiple TODs in hypertension; especially check for severe hypertensive retinopathy in patients with left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) and renal damage. © American Journal of Hypertension, Ltd 2015. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  16. Knowledge-Based Energy Damage Model for Evaluating Industrialised Building Systems (IBS Occupational Health and Safety (OHS Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abas Nor Haslinda

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Malaysia’s construction industry has been long considered hazardous, owing to its poor health and safety record. It is proposed that one of the ways to improve safety and health in the construction industry is through the implementation of ‘off-site’ systems, commonly termed ‘industrialised building systems (IBS’ in Malaysia. This is deemed safer based on the risk concept of reduced exposure, brought about by the reduction in onsite workers; however, no method yet exists for determining the relative safety of various construction methods, including IBS. This study presents a comparative evaluation of the occupational health and safety (OHS risk presented by different construction approaches, namely IBS and traditional methods. The evaluation involved developing a model based on the concept of ‘argumentation theory’, which helps construction designers integrate the management of OHS risk into the design process. In addition, an ‘energy damage model’ was used as an underpinning framework. Development of the model was achieved through three phases, namely Phase I – knowledge acquisitaion, Phase II – argument trees mapping, and Phase III – validation of the model. The research revealed that different approaches/methods of construction projects carried a different level of energy damage, depending on how the activities were carried out. A study of the way in which the risks change from one construction process to another shows that there is a difference in the profile of OHS risk between IBS construction and traditional methods.Therefore, whether the option is an IBS or traditional approach, the fundamental idea of the model is to motivate construction designers or decision-makers to address safety in the design process and encourage them to examine carefully the probable OHS risk variables surrounding an action, thus preventing accidents in construction.

  17. MERINOVA: Meteorological risks as drivers of environmental innovation in agro-ecosystem management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gobin, Anne; Oger, Robert; Marlier, Catherine; Van De Vijver, Hans; Vandermeulen, Valerie; Van Huylenbroeck, Guido; Zamani, Sepideh; Curnel, Yannick; Mettepenningen, Evi

    2013-04-01

    The BELSPO funded project 'MERINOVA' deals with risks associated with extreme weather phenomena and with risks of biological origin such as pests and diseases. The major objectives of the proposed project are to characterise extreme meteorological events, assess the impact on Belgian agro-ecosystems, characterise their vulnerability and resilience to these events, and explore innovative adaptation options to agricultural risk management. The project comprises of five major parts that reflect the chain of risks: (i) Hazard: Assessing the likely frequency and magnitude of extreme meteorological events by means of probability density functions; (ii) Impact: Analysing the potential bio-physical and socio-economic impact of extreme weather events on agro-ecosystems in Belgium using process-based modelling techniques commensurate with the regional scale; (iii) Vulnerability: Identifying the most vulnerable agro-ecosystems using fuzzy multi-criteria and spatial analysis; (iv) Risk Management: Uncovering innovative risk management and adaptation options using actor-network theory and fuzzy cognitive mapping techniques; and, (v) Communication: Communicating to research, policy and practitioner communities using web-based techniques. The different tasks of the MERINOVA project require expertise in several scientific disciplines: meteorology, statistics, spatial database management, agronomy, bio-physical impact modelling, socio-economic modelling, actor-network theory, fuzzy cognitive mapping techniques. These expertises are shared by the four scientific partners who each lead one work package. The MERINOVA project will concentrate on promoting a robust and flexible framework by demonstrating its performance across Belgian agro-ecosystems, and by ensuring its relevance to policy makers and practitioners. Impacts developed from physically based models will not only provide information on the state of the damage at any given time, but also assist in understanding the links

  18. Elevated endogenous erythropoietin concentrations are associated with increased risk of brain damage in extremely preterm neonates.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steven J Korzeniewski

    Full Text Available We sought to determine, in very preterm infants, whether elevated perinatal erythropoietin (EPO concentrations are associated with increased risks of indicators of brain damage, and whether this risk differs by the co-occurrence or absence of intermittent or sustained systemic inflammation (ISSI.Protein concentrations were measured in blood collected from 786 infants born before the 28th week of gestation. EPO was measured on postnatal day 14, and 25 inflammation-related proteins were measured weekly during the first 2 postnatal weeks. We defined ISSI as a concentration in the top quartile of each of 25 inflammation-related proteins on two separate days a week apart. Hypererythropoietinemia (hyperEPO was defined as the highest quartile for gestational age on postnatal day 14. Using logistic regression and multinomial logistic regression models, we compared risks of brain damage among neonates with hyperEPO only, ISSI only, and hyperEPO+ISSI, to those who had neither hyperEPO nor ISSI, adjusting for gestational age.Newborns with hyperEPO, regardless of ISSI, were more than twice as likely as those without to have very low (< 55 Mental (OR 2.3; 95% CI 1.5-3.5 and/or Psychomotor (OR 2.4; 95% CI 1.6-3.7 Development Indices (MDI, PDI, and microcephaly at age two years (OR 2.4; 95%CI 1.5-3.8. Newborns with both hyperEPO and ISSI had significantly increased risks of ventriculomegaly, hemiparetic cerebral palsy, microcephaly, and MDI and PDI < 55 (ORs ranged from 2.2-6.3, but not hypoechoic lesions or other forms of cerebral palsy, relative to newborns with neither hyperEPO nor ISSI.hyperEPO, regardless of ISSI, is associated with elevated risks of very low MDI and PDI, and microcephaly, but not with any form of cerebral palsy. Children with both hyperEPO and ISSI are at higher risk than others of very low MDI and PDI, ventriculomegaly, hemiparetic cerebral palsy, and microcephaly.

  19. Adaptive Regularization of Neural Classifiers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Lars Nonboe; Larsen, Jan; Hansen, Lars Kai

    1997-01-01

    We present a regularization scheme which iteratively adapts the regularization parameters by minimizing the validation error. It is suggested to use the adaptive regularization scheme in conjunction with optimal brain damage pruning to optimize the architecture and to avoid overfitting. Furthermo......, we propose an improved neural classification architecture eliminating an inherent redundancy in the widely used SoftMax classification network. Numerical results demonstrate the viability of the method...

  20. In-Situ Wire Damage Detection System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Martha K. (Inventor); Roberson, Luke B. (Inventor); Tate, Lanetra C. (Inventor); Smith, Trent M. (Inventor); Gibson, Tracy L. (Inventor); Jolley, Scott T. (Inventor); Medelius, Pedro J. (Inventor)

    2014-01-01

    An in-situ system for detecting damage in an electrically conductive wire. The system includes a substrate at least partially covered by a layer of electrically conductive material forming a continuous or non-continuous electrically conductive layer connected to an electrical signal generator adapted to delivering electrical signals to the electrically conductive layer. Data is received and processed to identify damage to the substrate or electrically conductive layer. The electrically conductive material may include metalized carbon fibers, a thin metal coating, a conductive polymer, carbon nanotubes, metal nanoparticles or a combination thereof.

  1. Promoting private sector engagement in climate change adaptation and flood resilience: A case study of innovative approaches applied by MSMEs in Mumbai, India

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schaer, Caroline; Pantakar, Archana

    2018-01-01

    Recurring heavy precipitation and flooding cause extensive loss and damage in cities like Mumbai. Among the worst affected are Micro Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) which suffer damage to physical structure and loss of business. These costs amount to millions of dollars and are borne by MSMEs...... reduction and climate adaptation from the perspective of MSMEs in Mumbai. Based on extensive field surveys of MSMEs located in industrial estates, the paper discusses the implications of floods for MSMEs. Moreover, the authors present a framework developed for MSMEs to make informed risk reduction...

  2. Prometheus unbound - challenges of risk evaluation, risk classification, and risk management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Klinke, A.; Renn, O.

    1999-11-01

    For dealing with risks in a rational fashion, it is necessary to characterize risks and use the parameters of characterization as tools for designing appropriate actions. This reports suggests a set of criteria that one can use in evaluating risks. These criteria include: - Damage potential, i.e. the amount of damage that the hazard can cause; - probability of occurrence, i.e. the likelihood that a specific damage will occur; - incertitude, i.e., the remaining uncertainties that are not covered by the assessment of probabilities (subdivided in statistical uncertainties, genuine uncertainty, and ignorance); - ubiquity which defines the geographic dispersion of potential damages (intragenerational justice); - persistency which defines the temporal extension of potential damages (intergenerational justice); - irreversibility which describes the impossible restoration of the situation to the state before the damage occurred (possible restoration are e.g. reforestation and cleaning of water); - delay effects which characterize the time of latency between the initial event and the actual impact of damage. The time of latency could be of physical, chemical or biological nature; and - potential of mobilization which is understood as violation of individual, social or cultural interests and values generating social conflicts and psychological reactions by affected people. (orig.)

  3. The framing of two major flood episodes in the Irish print news media: Implications for societal adaptation to living with flood risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devitt, Catherine; O'Neill, Eoin

    2017-10-01

    Societal adaptation to flooding is a critical component of contemporary flood policy. Using content analysis, this article identifies how two major flooding episodes (2009 and 2014) are framed in the Irish broadsheet news media. The article considers the extent to which these frames reflect shifts in contemporary flood policy away from protection towards risk management, and the possible implications for adaptation to living with flood risk. Frames help us make sense of the social world, and within the media, framing is an essential tool for communication. Five frames were identified: flood resistance and structural defences, politicisation of flood risk, citizen as risk manager, citizen as victim and emerging trade-offs. These frames suggest that public debates on flood management do not fully reflect shifts in contemporary flood policy, with negative implications for the direction of societal adaptation. Greater discussion is required on the influence of the media on achieving policy objectives.

  4. Adjustment of Adaptive Gain with Bounded Linear Stability Analysis to Improve Time-Delay Margin for Metrics-Driven Adaptive Control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bakhtiari-Nejad, Maryam; Nguyen, Nhan T.; Krishnakumar, Kalmanje Srinvas

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents the application of Bounded Linear Stability Analysis (BLSA) method for metrics driven adaptive control. The bounded linear stability analysis method is used for analyzing stability of adaptive control models, without linearizing the adaptive laws. Metrics-driven adaptive control introduces a notion that adaptation should be driven by some stability metrics to achieve robustness. By the application of bounded linear stability analysis method the adaptive gain is adjusted during the adaptation in order to meet certain phase margin requirements. Analysis of metrics-driven adaptive control is evaluated for a linear damaged twin-engine generic transport model of aircraft. The analysis shows that the system with the adjusted adaptive gain becomes more robust to unmodeled dynamics or time delay.

  5. DNA damage response pathway in radioadaptive response.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sasaki, Masao S; Ejima, Yosuke; Tachibana, Akira; Yamada, Toshiko; Ishizaki, Kanji; Shimizu, Takashi; Nomura, Taisei

    2002-07-25

    Radioadaptive response is a biological defense mechanism in which low-dose ionizing irradiation elicits cellular resistance to the genotoxic effects of subsequent irradiation. However, its molecular mechanism remains largely unknown. We previously demonstrated that the dose recognition and adaptive response could be mediated by a feedback signaling pathway involving protein kinase C (PKC), p38 mitogen activated protein kinase (p38MAPK) and phospholipase C (PLC). Further, to elucidate the downstream effector pathway, we studied the X-ray-induced adaptive response in cultured mouse and human cells with different genetic background relevant to the DNA damage response pathway, such as deficiencies in TP53, DNA-PKcs, ATM and FANCA genes. The results showed that p53 protein played a key role in the adaptive response while DNA-PKcs, ATM and FANCA were not responsible. Wortmannin, a specific inhibitor of phosphatidylinositol 3-kinase (PI3K), mimicked the priming irradiation in that the inhibitor alone rendered the cells resistant against the induction of chromosome aberrations and apoptosis by the subsequent X-ray irradiation. The adaptive response, whether it was afforded by low-dose X-rays or wortmannin, occurred in parallel with the reduction of apoptotic cell death by challenging doses. The inhibitor of p38MAPK which blocks the adaptive response did not suppress apoptosis. These observations indicate that the adaptive response and apoptotic cell death constitute a complementary defense system via life-or-death decisions. The p53 has a pivotal role in channeling the radiation-induced DNA double-strand breaks (DSBs) into an adaptive legitimate repair pathway, where the signals are integrated into p53 by a circuitous PKC-p38MAPK-PLC damage sensing pathway, and hence turning off the signals to an alternative pathway to illegitimate repair and apoptosis. A possible molecular mechanism of adaptive response to low-dose ionizing irradiation has been discussed in relation to

  6. Fire Risk Assessment of Adaptive Re-Use of Historic Shop Houses for Sleeping Accommodations in Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mydin M.A.O.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Heritage buildings were generally constructed without regard for fire risks or the requirements for fire protection, as are obligatory in new constructions. When a heritage building undergoes a change to its original function, improvements to the building’s fire safety are necessary to meet the needs of possible increases in occupancy loads and to account for fire risks related to the new usage. This research focuses on fire safety risks, fire protection and safety systems as well as the rules and regulations that an adaptive reuse heritage shop house is bound to when transitioning to a sleeping accommodation, which, in this case, means becoming a hotel. In this research, six heritage shop houses were chosen as case studies. The objectives of this research were to evaluate current fire emergency plans as well as to identify and assess possible fire hazards created by adaptive reuse of heritage shop houses to sleeping accommodations in Penang through a series of observations and interviews. The results of the research show that most of the buildings were provided with inadequate fire safety systems.

  7. Perceptions of risk factors for diabetes among Norwegian-Pakistani women participating in a culturally adapted intervention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Råberg Kjøllesdal, Marte K; Hjellset, Victoria T; Bjørge, Benedikte; Holmboe-Ottesen, Gerd; Wandel, Margareta

    2011-06-01

    To explore perceptions of diabetes risk factors among Pakistani immigrant women, as part of their explanatory model of the disease, and the changes in these perceptions after a culturally adapted intervention. Intervention study, carried out in Oslo, Norway, comprising 198 women. At baseline, about 75% of the women perceived sugar to be a risk factor for diabetes, about 30% mentioned physical inactivity and stress and close to 20% mentioned overweight. Twelve per cent could not identify any risk factors. When asked about foods to include in a diet to prevent diabetes, vegetables were mentioned by 45%, while 33% did not know any foods to include. Among those attending ≥60% of the educational sessions, the proportions mentioning little physical activity (pfood to include was reduced to 10% (p=0.004). Except for little physical activity, similar changes in responses were not registered in the control group. There is a need for improved knowledge about diabetes prevention among Pakistani immigrant women, and a culturally adapted intervention may contribute to this.

  8. Health risk in the context of climate change and adaptation - Concept and mapping as an integrated approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kienberger, S.; Notenbaert, A.; Zeil, P.; Bett, B.; Hagenlocher, M.; Omolo, A.

    2012-04-01

    Climate change has been stated as being one of the greatest challenges to global health in the current century. Climate change impacts on human health and the socio-economic and related poverty consequences are however still poorly understood. While epidemiological issues are strongly coupled with environmental and climatic parameters, the social and economic circumstances of populations might be of equal or even greater importance when trying to identify vulnerable populations and design appropriate and well-targeted adaptation measures. The inter-linkage between climate change, human health risk and socio-economic impacts remains an important - but largely outstanding - research field. We present an overview on how risk is traditionally being conceptualised in the human health domain and reflect critically on integrated approaches as being currently used in the climate change context. The presentation will also review existing approaches, and how they can be integrated towards adaptation tools. Following this review, an integrated risk concept is being presented, which has been currently adapted under the EC FP7 research project (HEALTHY FUTURES; http://www.healthyfutures.eu/). In this approach, health risk is not only defined through the disease itself (as hazard) but also by the inherent vulnerability of the system, population or region under study. It is in fact the interaction of environment and society that leads to the development of diseases and the subsequent risk of being negatively affected by it. In this conceptual framework vulnerability is being attributed to domains of lack of resilience as well as underlying preconditions determining susceptibilities. To fulfil a holistic picture vulnerability can be associated to social, economic, environmental, institutional, cultural and physical dimensions. The proposed framework also establishes the important nexus to adaptation and how different measures can be related to avoid disease outbreaks, reduce

  9. Implementation and adaptation of a macro-scale methodology to calculate direct economic losses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Natho, Stephanie; Thieken, Annegret

    2017-04-01

    As one of the 195 member countries of the United Nations, Germany signed the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 (SFDRR). With this, though voluntary and non-binding, Germany agreed to report on achievements to reduce disaster impacts. Among other targets, the SFDRR aims at reducing direct economic losses in relation to the global gross domestic product by 2030 - but how to measure this without a standardized approach? The United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR) has hence proposed a methodology to estimate direct economic losses per event and country on the basis of the number of damaged or destroyed items in different sectors. The method bases on experiences from developing countries. However, its applicability in industrial countries has not been investigated so far. Therefore, this study presents the first implementation of this approach in Germany to test its applicability for the costliest natural hazards and suggests adaptations. The approach proposed by UNISDR considers assets in the sectors agriculture, industry, commerce, housing, and infrastructure by considering roads, medical and educational facilities. The asset values are estimated on the basis of sector and event specific number of affected items, sector specific mean sizes per item, their standardized construction costs per square meter and a loss ratio of 25%. The methodology was tested for the three costliest natural hazard types in Germany, i.e. floods, storms and hail storms, considering 13 case studies on the federal or state scale between 1984 and 2016. Not any complete calculation of all sectors necessary to describe the total direct economic loss was possible due to incomplete documentation. Therefore, the method was tested sector-wise. Three new modules were developed to better adapt this methodology to German conditions covering private transport (cars), forestry and paved roads. Unpaved roads in contrast were integrated into the agricultural and

  10. Oxytetracycline induces DNA damage and epigenetic changes: a possible risk for human and animal health?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallo, Adriana; Landi, Rosaria; Rubino, Valentina; Di Cerbo, Alessandro; Giovazzino, Angela; Palatucci, Anna Teresa; Centenaro, Sara; Guidetti, Gianandrea; Canello, Sergio; Cortese, Laura; Ruggiero, Giuseppina; Alessandrini, Andrea; Terrazzano, Giuseppe

    2017-01-01

    Oxytetracycline (OTC), which is largely employed in zootechnical and veterinary practices to ensure wellness of farmed animals, is partially absorbed within the gastrointestinal tract depositing in several tissues. Therefore, the potential OTC toxicity is relevant when considering the putative risk derived by the entry and accumulation of such drug in human and pet food chain supply. Despite scientific literature highlights several OTC-dependent toxic effects on human and animal health, the molecular mechanisms of such toxicity are still poorly understood. Here, we evaluated DNA damages and epigenetic alterations by quantitative reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction, quantitative polymerase chain reaction, chromatin immuno-precipitation and Western blot analysis. We observed that human peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) expressed DNA damage features (activation of ATM and p53, phosphorylation of H2AX and modifications of histone H3 methylation of lysine K4 in the chromatin) after the in vitro exposure to OTC. These changes are linked to a robust inflammatory response indicated by an increased expression of Interferon (IFN)- γ and type 1 superoxide dismutase (SOD1). Our data reveal an unexpected biological in vitro activity of OTC able to modify DNA and chromatin in cultured human PBMC. In this regard, OTC presence in foods of animal origin could represent a potential risk for both the human and animal health.

  11. Cancer risk in humans predicted by increased levels of chromosomal aberrations in lymphocytes: Nordic study group on the health risk of chromosome damage

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hagmar, L; Brøgger, A; Hansteen, I L

    1994-01-01

    Cytogenetic assays in peripheral blood lymphocytes (PBL) have been used extensively to survey the exposure of humans to genotoxic agents. The conceptual basis for this has been the hypothesis that the extent of genetic damage in PBL reflects critical events for carcinogenic processes in target...... tissues. Until now, no follow-up studies have been performed to assess the predictive value of these methods for subsequent cancer risk. In an ongoing Nordic cohort study of cancer incidence, 3182 subjects were examined between 1970 and 1988 for chromosomal aberrations (CA), sister chromatid exchange.......0009) in CA strata with regard to subsequent cancer risk. The point estimates of the standardized incidence ratio in the three CA strata were 0.9, 0.7, and 2.1, respectively. Thus, an increased level of chromosome breakage appears to be a relevant biomarker of future cancer risk....

  12. How avian nest site selection responds to predation risk: Testing an 'adaptive peak hypothesis'

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quresh S. Latif; Sacha K. Heath; John T. Rotenberry

    2012-01-01

    1. Nest predation limits avian fitness, so birds should favour nest sites that minimize predation risk. Nevertheless, preferred nest microhabitat features are often uncorrelated with apparent variation in predation rates. 2. This lack of congruence between theory-based expectation and empirical data may arise when birds already occupy ‘adaptive peaks’. If birds nest...

  13. Climate change impacts on flood risk and asset damages within mapped 100-year floodplains of the contiguous United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wobus, Cameron; Gutmann, Ethan; Jones, Russell; Rissing, Matthew; Mizukami, Naoki; Lorie, Mark; Mahoney, Hardee; Wood, Andrew W.; Mills, David; Martinich, Jeremy

    2017-12-01

    A growing body of work suggests that the extreme weather events that drive inland flooding are likely to increase in frequency and magnitude in a warming climate, thus potentially increasing flood damages in the future. We use hydrologic projections based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to estimate changes in the frequency of modeled 1 % annual exceedance probability (1 % AEP, or 100-year) flood events at 57 116 stream reaches across the contiguous United States (CONUS). We link these flood projections to a database of assets within mapped flood hazard zones to model changes in inland flooding damages throughout the CONUS over the remainder of the 21st century. Our model generates early 21st century flood damages that reasonably approximate the range of historical observations and trajectories of future damages that vary substantially depending on the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions pathway. The difference in modeled flood damages between higher and lower emissions pathways approaches USD 4 billion per year by 2100 (in undiscounted 2014 dollars), suggesting that aggressive GHG emissions reductions could generate significant monetary benefits over the long term in terms of reduced flood damages. Although the downscaled hydrologic data we used have been applied to flood impacts studies elsewhere, this research expands on earlier work to quantify changes in flood risk by linking future flood exposure to assets and damages on a national scale. Our approach relies on a series of simplifications that could ultimately affect damage estimates (e.g., use of statistical downscaling, reliance on a nationwide hydrologic model, and linking damage estimates only to 1 % AEP floods). Although future work is needed to test the sensitivity of our results to these methodological choices, our results indicate that monetary damages from inland flooding could be significantly reduced through substantial GHG mitigation.

  14. Climate change impacts on flood risk and asset damages within mapped 100-year floodplains of the contiguous United States

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Wobus

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available A growing body of work suggests that the extreme weather events that drive inland flooding are likely to increase in frequency and magnitude in a warming climate, thus potentially increasing flood damages in the future. We use hydrologic projections based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5 to estimate changes in the frequency of modeled 1 % annual exceedance probability (1 % AEP, or 100-year flood events at 57 116 stream reaches across the contiguous United States (CONUS. We link these flood projections to a database of assets within mapped flood hazard zones to model changes in inland flooding damages throughout the CONUS over the remainder of the 21st century. Our model generates early 21st century flood damages that reasonably approximate the range of historical observations and trajectories of future damages that vary substantially depending on the greenhouse gas (GHG emissions pathway. The difference in modeled flood damages between higher and lower emissions pathways approaches USD 4 billion per year by 2100 (in undiscounted 2014 dollars, suggesting that aggressive GHG emissions reductions could generate significant monetary benefits over the long term in terms of reduced flood damages. Although the downscaled hydrologic data we used have been applied to flood impacts studies elsewhere, this research expands on earlier work to quantify changes in flood risk by linking future flood exposure to assets and damages on a national scale. Our approach relies on a series of simplifications that could ultimately affect damage estimates (e.g., use of statistical downscaling, reliance on a nationwide hydrologic model, and linking damage estimates only to 1 % AEP floods. Although future work is needed to test the sensitivity of our results to these methodological choices, our results indicate that monetary damages from inland flooding could be significantly reduced through substantial GHG mitigation.

  15. Building on the links between climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Vincent, K

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available countries, genetically modified organisms (GMOs) have been embraced to address challenges of low productivity and related occurrences of food insecurity; but that adaptation to climate change may be seen as placing an increased risk on genetic diversity... and terrestrial ecosystems. This is because it can “out-compete” other varieties locally, reducing species composition and thus the gene pool; but also because forces such as wind dispersal and erosion mean that containing the effects of GMOs in one area...

  16. Adolescents Misperceive and Are Influenced By High Status Peers' Health Risk, Deviant, and Adaptive Behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helms, Sarah W.; Choukas-Bradley, Sophia; Widman, Laura; Giletta, Matteo; Cohen, Geoffrey L.; Prinstein, Mitchell J.

    2015-01-01

    Most peer influence research examines socialization between adolescents and their best friends. Yet, adolescents also are influenced by popular peers, perhaps due to misperceptions of social norms. This research examined the extent to which out-group and in-group adolescents misperceive the frequencies of peers' deviant, health risk, and adaptive behaviors in different reputation-based peer crowds (Study 1) and the prospective associations between perceptions of high status peers' and adolescents' own substance use over 2.5 years (Study 2). Study 1 examined 235 adolescents' reported deviant (vandalism, theft), health risk (substance use, sexual risk), and adaptive (exercise, studying) behavior, and their perceptions of Jocks', Populars', Burnouts', and Brains' engagement in the same behaviors. Peer nominations identified adolescents in each peer crowd. Jocks and Populars were rated as higher status than Brains and Burnouts. Results indicated that peer crowd stereotypes are caricatures. Misperceptions of high status crowds were dramatic, but for many behaviors, no differences between Populars'/Jocks' and others' actual reported behaviors were revealed. Study 2 assessed 166 adolescents' substance use and their perceptions of popular peers' (i.e., peers high in peer perceived popularity) substance use. Parallel process latent growth analyses revealed that higher perceptions of popular peers' substance use in Grade 9 (intercept) significantly predicted steeper increases in adolescents' own substance use from Grade 9 to 11 (slope). Results from both studies, utilizing different methods, offer evidence to suggest that adolescents misperceive high status peers' risk behaviors, and these misperceptions may predict adolescents' own risk behavior engagement. PMID:25365121

  17. Adolescents misperceive and are influenced by high-status peers' health risk, deviant, and adaptive behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helms, Sarah W; Choukas-Bradley, Sophia; Widman, Laura; Giletta, Matteo; Cohen, Geoffrey L; Prinstein, Mitchell J

    2014-12-01

    Most peer influence research examines socialization between adolescents and their best friends. Yet, adolescents also are influenced by popular peers, perhaps due to misperceptions of social norms. This research examined the extent to which out-group and in-group adolescents misperceive the frequencies of peers' deviant, health risk, and adaptive behaviors in different reputation-based peer crowds (Study 1) and the prospective associations between perceptions of high-status peers' and adolescents' own substance use over 2.5 years (Study 2). Study 1 examined 235 adolescents' reported deviant (vandalism, theft), health risk (substance use, sexual risk), and adaptive (exercise, studying) behavior, and their perceptions of jocks', populars', burnouts', and brains' engagement in the same behaviors. Peer nominations identified adolescents in each peer crowd. Jocks and populars were rated as higher status than brains and burnouts. Results indicated that peer crowd stereotypes are caricatures. Misperceptions of high-status crowds were dramatic, but for many behaviors, no differences between populars'/jocks' and others' actual reported behaviors were revealed. Study 2 assessed 166 adolescents' substance use and their perceptions of popular peers' (i.e., peers high in peer perceived popularity) substance use. Parallel process latent growth analyses revealed that higher perceptions of popular peers' substance use in Grade 9 (intercept) significantly predicted steeper increases in adolescents' own substance use from Grade 9 to 11 (slope). Results from both studies, utilizing different methods, offer evidence to suggest that adolescents misperceive high-status peers' risk behaviors, and these misperceptions may predict adolescents' own risk behavior engagement. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

  18. Flood hazards and masonry constructions: a probabilistic framework for damage, risk and resilience at urban scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Mebarki

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with the failure risk of masonry constructions under the effect of floods. It is developed within a probabilistic framework, with loads and resistances considered as random variables. Two complementary approaches have been investigated for this purpose:

    – a global approach based on combined effects of several governing parameters with individual weighted contribution (material quality and geometry, presence and distance between columns, beams, openings, resistance of the soil and its slope. . .,
    – and a reliability method using the failure mechanism of masonry walls standing out-plane pressure.

    The evolution of the probability of failure of masonry constructions according to the flood water level is analysed.

    The analysis of different failure probability scenarios for masonry walls is conducted to calibrate the influence of each "vulnerability governing parameter" in the global approach that is widely used in risk assessment at the urban or regional scale.

    The global methodology is implemented in a GIS that provides the spatial distribution of damage risk for different flood scenarios. A real case is considered for the simulations, i.e. Cheffes sur Sarthe (France, for which the observed river discharge, the hydraulic load according to the Digital Terrain Model, and the structural resistance are considered as random variables. The damage probability values provided by both approaches are compared. Discussions are also developed about reduction and mitigation of the flood disaster at various scales (set of structures, city, region as well as resilience.

  19. Economic valuation of acidic deposition damages: Preliminary results from the 1985 NAPAP [National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program] damage assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Callaway, J.M.; Darwin, R.F.; Nesse, R.J.

    1985-01-01

    This paper identifies methods used to evaluate the economic damages of acid deposition in the 1985 Damage Assessment being coordinated by the National Acid Precipitation Program. It also presents the preliminary estimates of economic damages for the Assessment. Economic damages are estimated for four effect areas: commercial agriculture and forests, recreational fishing and selected types of materials. In all but the last area, methods are used which incorporate the behavioral responses of individuals and firms or simulated physical damages to resources at risk. The preliminary nature of the estimated damages in each area is emphasized. Over all, the damage estimates should be interpreted with caution. 44 refs., 6 figs., 5 tabs

  20. Assessing surface water flood risk and management strategies under future climate change: Insights from an Agent-Based Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenkins, K; Surminski, S; Hall, J; Crick, F

    2017-10-01

    Climate change and increasing urbanization are projected to result in an increase in surface water flooding and consequential damages in the future. In this paper, we present insights from a novel Agent Based Model (ABM), applied to a London case study of surface water flood risk, designed to assess the interplay between different adaptation options; how risk reduction could be achieved by homeowners and government; and the role of flood insurance and the new flood insurance pool, Flood Re, in the context of climate change. The analysis highlights that while combined investment in property-level flood protection and sustainable urban drainage systems reduce surface water flood risk, the benefits can be outweighed by continued development in high risk areas and the effects of climate change. In our simulations, Flood Re is beneficial in its function to provide affordable insurance, even under climate change. However, the scheme does face increasing financial pressure due to rising surface water flood damages. If the intended transition to risk-based pricing is to take place then a determined and coordinated strategy will be needed to manage flood risk, which utilises insurance incentives, limits new development, and supports resilience measures. Our modelling approach and findings are highly relevant for the ongoing regulatory and political approval process for Flood Re as well as for wider discussions on the potential of insurance schemes to incentivise flood risk management and climate adaptation in the UK and internationally. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Stepping reaction time and gait adaptability are significantly impaired in people with Parkinson's disease: Implications for fall risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caetano, Maria Joana D; Lord, Stephen R; Allen, Natalie E; Brodie, Matthew A; Song, Jooeun; Paul, Serene S; Canning, Colleen G; Menant, Jasmine C

    2018-02-01

    Decline in the ability to take effective steps and to adapt gait, particularly under challenging conditions, may be important reasons why people with Parkinson's disease (PD) have an increased risk of falling. This study aimed to determine the extent of stepping and gait adaptability impairments in PD individuals as well as their associations with PD symptoms, cognitive function and previous falls. Thirty-three older people with PD and 33 controls were assessed in choice stepping reaction time, Stroop stepping and gait adaptability tests; measurements identified as fall risk factors in older adults. People with PD had similar mean choice stepping reaction times to healthy controls, but had significantly greater intra-individual variability. In the Stroop stepping test, the PD participants were more likely to make an error (48 vs 18%), took 715 ms longer to react (2312 vs 1517 ms) and had significantly greater response variability (536 vs 329 ms) than the healthy controls. People with PD also had more difficulties adapting their gait in response to targets (poorer stepping accuracy) and obstacles (increased number of steps) appearing at short notice on a walkway. Within the PD group, higher disease severity, reduced cognition and previous falls were associated with poorer stepping and gait adaptability performances. People with PD have reduced ability to adapt gait to unexpected targets and obstacles and exhibit poorer stepping responses, particularly in a test condition involving conflict resolution. Such impaired stepping responses in Parkinson's disease are associated with disease severity, cognitive impairment and falls. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Quantification of flood risk mitigation benefits: A building-scale damage assessment through the RASOR platform.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arrighi, Chiara; Rossi, Lauro; Trasforini, Eva; Rudari, Roberto; Ferraris, Luca; Brugioni, Marcello; Franceschini, Serena; Castelli, Fabio

    2018-02-01

    Flood risk mitigation usually requires a significant investment of public resources and cost-effectiveness should be ensured. The assessment of the benefits of hydraulic works requires the quantification of (i) flood risk in absence of measures, (ii) risk in presence of mitigation works, (iii) investments to achieve acceptable residual risk. In this work a building-scale is adopted to estimate direct tangible flood losses to several building classes (e.g. residential, industrial, commercial, etc.) and respective contents, exploiting various sources of public open data in a GIS environment. The impact simulations for assigned flood hazard scenarios are computed through the RASOR platform which allows for an extensive characterization of the properties and their vulnerability through libraries of stage-damage curves. Recovery and replacement costs are estimated based on insurance data, market values and socio-economic proxies. The methodology is applied to the case study of Florence (Italy) where a system of retention basins upstream of the city is under construction to reduce flood risk. Current flood risk in the study area (70 km 2 ) is about 170 Mio euros per year without accounting for people, infrastructures, cultural heritage and vehicles at risk. The monetary investment in the retention basins is paid off in about 5 years. However, the results show that although hydraulic works are cost-effective, a significant residual risk has to be managed and the achievement of the desired level of acceptable risk would require about 1 billion euros of investments. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Adaptation of Basel Agreements to the Currency Risks Management in Ukraine and Russia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ekaterina Tikhonovna Sveshnikova

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The article reveals the problem of adapting the Basel standards for managing the market and, in particular, foreign exchange risks to the conditions of the national economies of Ukraine and Russia. Internationality, fictitiousness and speculating of the currency transactions necessitated the transition of national banking systems of Ukraine and Russia to the international standards of Basel Committee. The article describes the history and shows the gradual process of implementation of these standards in the banking law and practice. We have studied the nature of the categories of “market risk” and “foreign exchange risk”. The place of the foreign exchange risk is updated in the classification of banking risks by analyzing the different views, and the mechanism of its effect is identified on the activities of commercial banks. The proposals on copyright issues are presented in particular: the necessity of combining the stock, interest rate and foreign exchange risks in the market risk group, as well as fixing the common regulatory definition of foreign exchange risk in the legislation. In the article the author’s category definition interpretation of “foreign exchange risk management system” is given in the light of its absence in the legal and the economic literature. The author also gives the recommendations to banks on developing the individual models for risk management in accordance with their own needs and current circumstances.

  4. Simulation of Spacecraft Damage Tolerance and Adaptive Controls

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-06-01

    9.9639/24/3600/180*pi*0; %nodal precession constant assumed zero here wn=kpre*(Re/(Re+h))^3.5*cos(incln); %nodal precession (zero eccentricity ) V...for 0 H spin up w_wheel=2800*(2*pi/60); % Wheel speed in RPM converted to rad/s Iwheel=0.0614*1.3558179483314; % Wheel inertia in slug-ft^2...converted (exact) to kg m^2 h_wheel=Iwheel*w_wheel; % CMG Wheel Angular Momentum % [Fossen]’s adaptive feedforward parameters ETA=-100; LAMBDA=0.5

  5. Endogenous DNA Damage and Risk of Testicular Germ Cell Tumors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cook, M B; Sigurdson, A J; Jones, I M; Thomas, C B; Graubard, B I; Korde, L; Greene, M H; McGlynn, K A

    2008-01-18

    Testicular germ cell tumors (TGCT) are comprised of two histologic groups, seminomas and nonseminomas. We postulated that the possible divergent pathogeneses of these histologies may be partially explained by variable endogenous DNA damage. To assess our hypothesis, we conducted a case-case analysis of seminomas and nonseminomas using the alkaline comet assay to quantify single-strand DNA breaks and alkali-labile sites. The Familial Testicular Cancer study and the U.S. Radiologic Technologists cohort provided 112 TGCT cases (51 seminomas & 61 nonseminomas). A lymphoblastoid cell line was cultured for each patient and the alkaline comet assay was used to determine four parameters: tail DNA, tail length, comet distributed moment (CDM) and Olive tail moment (OTM). Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI) were estimated using logistic regression. Values for tail length, tail DNA, CDM and OTM were modeled as categorical variables using the 50th and 75th percentiles of the seminoma group. Tail DNA was significantly associated with nonseminoma compared to seminoma (OR{sub 50th percentile} = 3.31, 95%CI: 1.00, 10.98; OR{sub 75th percentile} = 3.71, 95%CI: 1.04, 13.20; p for trend=0.039). OTM exhibited similar, albeit statistically non-significant, risk estimates (OR{sub 50th percentile} = 2.27, 95%CI: 0.75, 6.87; OR{sub 75th percentile} = 2.40, 95%CI: 0.75, 7.71; p for trend=0.12) whereas tail length and CDM showed no association. In conclusion, the results for tail DNA and OTM indicate that endogenous DNA damage levels are higher in patients who develop nonseminoma compared with seminoma. This may partly explain the more aggressive biology and younger age-of-onset of this histologic subgroup compared with the relatively less aggressive, later-onset seminoma.

  6. Projecting the risk of damage to reef-lined coasts due to intensified tropical cyclones and sea level rise in Palau to 2100

    OpenAIRE

    Hongo, Chuki; Kurihara, Haruko; Golbuu, Yimnang

    2017-01-01

    Tropical cyclones (TCs), sea level rise (SLR), and storm surges cause major problems including beach erosion, saltwater intrusion into groundwater, and damage to infrastructure in coastal areas. The magnitude and extent of damage is predicted to increase as a consequence of future climate change and local factors. Upward reef growth has attracted attention for its role as a natural breakwater able to reduce the risks of natural disasters to coastal communities. However, projections of change ...

  7. Adaptation of cell renewal systems under continuous irradiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fabrikant, J.I.

    1987-01-01

    There are adaptive changes in the proliferative characteristics of renewal tissues under the stress of continuous low-dose-rate irradiation which indicate that cell and tissue kinetics will have a considerable effect on the radiation response. Factors that determine the adaptation response involve cellular radiosensitivity, i.e. cell cycle effects, which determine the rate of cell sterilization and death, and compensatory cell proliferation and the capacity for regeneration, i.e. changes in the patterns of cell population kinetics, which determine the rate of cell birth. In rapidly dividing cell renewal systems, there is an effective elimination of damaged cells, with almost complete repair of cellular nonlethal damage. In slowly dividing renewal tissues, there is some repair or elimination of cellular radiation damage and the pattern of cell proliferation during regeneration is relatively little disturbed by prior continuous irradiation. Experimental data on intestinal epithelium, immunohematopoietic tissues, seminiferous epithelium and regenerating liver are presented. Discussion includes differences in adaptation to continuous low-dose-rate irradiation involving intracellular and extracellular control mechanisms which regulate cellular proliferation and differentiation and, thereby, control cell population levels and physiological function. 29 references

  8. Radio-adaptation: cellular and molecular features of a response to low levels of ionizing radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rigaud, O.

    1998-01-01

    It is well established that sublethal doses of DNA damaging agents induce protective mechanisms against a subsequent high dose treatment ; for instance, the phenomenon of radio-adaptation in the case of ionizing radiations. Since the early observation described in 1984, numerous studies have confirmed the radio-adaptive response in terms of reduction of chromosomal breaks for varied biological models in vitro and in vivo. Evidence for an adaptive response against the induction of gene mutations and the lethal effect is clearly demonstrated. This paper reviews the experimental results describing various aspects of these adaptive responses expressed on these different biological end-points. The molecular mechanism underlying radio-adaptation still remains nuclear. The development of this phenomenon requires de novo synthesis of transcripts and proteins during the time interval between the two doses. Some data are consistent with the hypotheses that these gene products would be involved in the activation of DNA repair pathways and antioxidant systems. However, a major question still remains unanswered; indeed, it is not clear whether or not the radio-adaptation could affect the estimation of cancer risk related with low level exposure to ionizing radiation, a major concern in radioprotection. Until such data are available, it is yet unwise to evoke the beneficial effects of radio-adaptation. (authors)

  9. Risk based decision aid for damage control

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meesters, J.L.; Keijer, W.; Gillis, M.P.W.

    2003-01-01

    The current trend in ship design is to reduce the crew. Special attention should be paid to damage control, which is a labour intensive task. Having less crew members implies that more tasks have to be automated. It also means a reduction of the available 'human sensors’, which leads to difficulties

  10. Integrated urban flood risk assessment – adapting a multicriteria approach to a city

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Kubal

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Flood risk assessment is an essential part of flood risk management. As part of the new EU flood directive it is becoming increasingly more popular in European flood policy. Particularly cities with a high concentration of people and goods are vulnerable to floods. This paper introduces the adaptation of a novel method of multicriteria flood risk assessment, that was recently developed for the more rural Mulde river basin, to a city. The study site is Leipzig, Germany. The "urban" approach includes a specific urban-type set of economic, social and ecological flood risk criteria, which focus on urban issues: population and vulnerable groups, differentiated residential land use classes, areas with social and health care but also ecological indicators such as recreational urban green spaces. These criteria are integrated using a "multicriteria decision rule" based on an additive weighting procedure which is implemented into the software tool FloodCalc urban. Based on different weighting sets we provide evidence of where the most flood-prone areas are located in a city. Furthermore, we can show that with an increasing inundation extent it is both the social and the economic risks that strongly increase.

  11. Landslide risk analysis: a multi-disciplinary methodological approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Sterlacchini

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available This study describes an analysis carried out within the European community project "ALARM" (Assessment of Landslide Risk and Mitigation in Mountain Areas, 2004 on landslide risk assessment in the municipality of Corvara in Badia, Italy. This mountainous area, located in the central Dolomites (Italian Alps, poses a significant landslide hazard to several man-made and natural objects. Three parameters for determining risk were analysed as an aid to preparedness and mitigation planning: event occurrence probability, elements at risk, and the vulnerability of these elements. Initially, a landslide hazard scenario was defined; this step was followed by the identification of the potential vulnerable elements, by the estimation of the expected physical effects, due to the occurrence of a damaging phenomenon, and by the analysis of social and economic features of the area. Finally, a potential risk scenario was defined, where the relationships between the event, its physical effects, and its economic consequences were investigated. People and public administrators with training and experience in local landsliding and slope processes were involved in each step of the analysis.

    A "cause-effect" correlation was applied, derived from the "dose-response" equation initially used in the biological sciences and then adapted by economists for the assessment of environmental risks. The relationship was analysed from a physical point of view and the cause (the natural event was correlated to the physical effects, i.e. the aesthetic, functional, and structural damage. An economic evaluation of direct and indirect damage was carried out considering the assets in the affected area (i.e., tourist flows, goods, transport and the effect on other social and economic activities. This study shows the importance of indirect damage, which is as significant as direct damage. The total amount of direct damage was estimated in 8 913 000 €; on the contrary, indirect

  12. Landslide risk analysis: a multi-disciplinary methodological approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sterlacchini, S.; Frigerio, S.; Giacomelli, P.; Brambilla, M.

    2007-11-01

    This study describes an analysis carried out within the European community project "ALARM" (Assessment of Landslide Risk and Mitigation in Mountain Areas, 2004) on landslide risk assessment in the municipality of Corvara in Badia, Italy. This mountainous area, located in the central Dolomites (Italian Alps), poses a significant landslide hazard to several man-made and natural objects. Three parameters for determining risk were analysed as an aid to preparedness and mitigation planning: event occurrence probability, elements at risk, and the vulnerability of these elements. Initially, a landslide hazard scenario was defined; this step was followed by the identification of the potential vulnerable elements, by the estimation of the expected physical effects, due to the occurrence of a damaging phenomenon, and by the analysis of social and economic features of the area. Finally, a potential risk scenario was defined, where the relationships between the event, its physical effects, and its economic consequences were investigated. People and public administrators with training and experience in local landsliding and slope processes were involved in each step of the analysis. A "cause-effect" correlation was applied, derived from the "dose-response" equation initially used in the biological sciences and then adapted by economists for the assessment of environmental risks. The relationship was analysed from a physical point of view and the cause (the natural event) was correlated to the physical effects, i.e. the aesthetic, functional, and structural damage. An economic evaluation of direct and indirect damage was carried out considering the assets in the affected area (i.e., tourist flows, goods, transport and the effect on other social and economic activities). This study shows the importance of indirect damage, which is as significant as direct damage. The total amount of direct damage was estimated in 8 913 000 €; on the contrary, indirect damage ranged considerably

  13. Adaptation in integrated assessment modeling: where do we stand?

    OpenAIRE

    Patt, A.; van Vuuren, D.P.; Berkhout, F.G.H.; Aaheim, A.; Hof, A.F.; Isaac, M.; Mechler, R.

    2010-01-01

    Adaptation is an important element on the climate change policy agenda. Integrated assessment models, which are key tools to assess climate change policies, have begun to address adaptation, either by including it implicitly in damage cost estimates, or by making it an explicit control variable. We analyze how modelers have chosen to describe adaptation within an integrated framework, and suggest many ways they could improve the treatment of adaptation by considering more of its bottom-up cha...

  14. Promoting adaptive flood risk management: the role and potential of flood recovery mechanisms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Priest Sally J

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available There is a high potential for recovery mechanisms to be used to incentivise the uptake of flood mitigation and loss reduction measures, undertake adaptation and promote community resilience. Indeed, creating a resilient response to flooding requires flood risk management approaches to be aligned and it needs to be ensured that recovery mechanisms to not provide disincentives for individuals and business to take proactive action to reduce risk. However, the degree to which it is desirable and effective for insurers and governments providing compensation to promote resilience and risk reduction depends upon how the cover or compensation is organised and the premiums which are charged. A review of international flood recovery mechanisms has been undertaken to identify firstly the types of schemes that exist and their characteristics. Analysis of existing instruments highlights that there are various potential approaches to encourage or require the uptake of flood mitigation and also discourage the construction of new development in high flood risk. However despite the presence of these instruments, those organising recovery mechanisms could be doing much more to incentivise increased resilience.

  15. Adaptation in integrated assessment modeling: where do we stand?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Patt, A.; van Vuuren, D.P.; Berkhout, F.G.H.; Aaheim, A.; Hof, A.F.; Isaac, M.; Mechler, R.

    2010-01-01

    Adaptation is an important element on the climate change policy agenda. Integrated assessment models, which are key tools to assess climate change policies, have begun to address adaptation, either by including it implicitly in damage cost estimates, or by making it an explicit control variable. We

  16. Assessing and Managing Natural Resource Damages: Continuing Challenges and Opportunities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnthouse, Lawrence W.; Stahl, Ralph G.

    2017-05-01

    In a 2002 paper, we discussed the technical challenges associated with quantifying natural resource injuries, service losses and damages, and suggested some actions that might help to overcome them. An important suggestion was to consider using some of the approaches in ecological risk assessment to help evaluate potential natural resource injuries, and ultimately in some cases to help translate those injuries into natural resource service loss. This was based on the observation that ecological risk assessment and natural resource damage assessments use much of the same types of data, but at that time the experience base with ecological risk assessment was greater than for natural resource damage assessments. We also discussed some of the issues in applying the then current Department of Interior natural resource damage assessments regulations. Since our 2002 publication the scientific literature, relevant regulations, the global context and more have changed. In the current paper we focus on the technical and regulatory changes in natural resource damage assessments practice since 2002, and use recent reports and publications to illustrate those changes and identify new directions in natural resource damage assessments.

  17. Study on the water related disaster risks using the future socio-economic scenario in Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiguchi, M.; Hatono, M.; Ikeuchi, H.; Nakamura, S.; Hirabayashi, Y.; Kanae, S.; Oki, T.

    2014-12-01

    In this study, flood risks in the present and the end of the 21st century in Asia are estimated using a future socio-economic scenario. Using the runoff data of 7 GCMs (RCP 8.5) of CMIP5, the river discharge, inundation area, and inundation depth are calculated for the assessment of flood risk. Finally, the flood risk is estimated using a function of damage. The flood frequency in the end of the 21st century in Asia tends to increase. Inundation area in Japan, Taiwan, and Kyrgyz is almost unchanged. At the same time, that in Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Laos, and Myanmar reached about 1.4-1.6 times compared to present. Damage cost is largely influenced by economic growth, however, we show that it is important that we distinguish the influence of climate change from economic development and evaluate it when we think about an adaptation.

  18. Towards integrative risk management and more resilient societies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Khudhairy, D.; Axhausen, K.; Bishop, S.; Herrmann, H.; Hu, B.; Kröger, W.; Lewis, T.; MacIntosh, J.; Nowak, A.; Pickl, S.; Stauffacher, D.; Tan, E.

    2012-11-01

    Society depends decisively on the availability of infrastructure systems such as energy, telecommunication, transportation, banking and finance, health care and governmental and public administration. Even selective damages of one of these infrastructures may result in disruptions of governmental, industrial or public functions. Vulnerability of infrastructures therefore provides spectacular leverage for natural disasters as well as criminal and terrorist actions. Threats and risks are part of the technological, economical, and societal development. This article focuses on the development and characterization of an integrative risk-management which, from the perspective of "resilient systems", can be seen as an innovative and pro-active crisis management approach dealing with the increasing amount of complexity in societies in a comprehensive, agile and adaptive way.

  19. Flood risk and adaptation strategies under climate change and urban expansion: A probabilistic analysis using global data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muis, Sanne; Güneralp, Burak; Jongman, Brenden; Aerts, Jeroen C J H; Ward, Philip J

    2015-12-15

    An accurate understanding of flood risk and its drivers is crucial for effective risk management. Detailed risk projections, including uncertainties, are however rarely available, particularly in developing countries. This paper presents a method that integrates recent advances in global-scale modeling of flood hazard and land change, which enables the probabilistic analysis of future trends in national-scale flood risk. We demonstrate its application to Indonesia. We develop 1000 spatially-explicit projections of urban expansion from 2000 to 2030 that account for uncertainty associated with population and economic growth projections, as well as uncertainty in where urban land change may occur. The projections show that the urban extent increases by 215%-357% (5th and 95th percentiles). Urban expansion is particularly rapid on Java, which accounts for 79% of the national increase. From 2000 to 2030, increases in exposure will elevate flood risk by, on average, 76% and 120% for river and coastal floods. While sea level rise will further increase the exposure-induced trend by 19%-37%, the response of river floods to climate change is highly uncertain. However, as urban expansion is the main driver of future risk, the implementation of adaptation measures is increasingly urgent, regardless of the wide uncertainty in climate projections. Using probabilistic urban projections, we show that spatial planning can be a very effective adaptation strategy. Our study emphasizes that global data can be used successfully for probabilistic risk assessment in data-scarce countries. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Attitudes to climate change, perceptions of disaster risk, and mitigation and adaptation behavior in Yunlin County, Taiwan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Yung-Jaan; Tung, Chuan-Ming; Lin, Shih-Chien

    2018-02-08

    Issues that are associated with climate change have global importance. Most related studies take a national or regional perspective on the impact of climate change. Taiwan is constrained by its geographical conditions, which increase its vulnerability to climate change, especially in its western coastal areas. The county that is most affected by climate change is Yunlin. In 2013-2014, projects that were sponsored by Taiwan's government analyzed the relationship among synthesized vulnerability, ecological footprint (EF) and adaptation to climate change and proposed 15 categories of synthesized vulnerability and EF values. This study further examines the relationship between vulnerability and EF values and examines how residents of four townships-Linnei, Sihu, Mailiao, and Huwei-cope with the effects of climate change. This study investigates whether the residents of the four townships vary in their attitudes to climate change, their perceptions of disaster risk, and their behavioral intentions with respect to coping with climate change. The structural equation model (SEM) is used to examine the relationships among attitudes to climate change, perceptions of disaster risk, and the behavioral intentions of residents in townships with various vulnerabilities to climate change. The results that are obtained using the SEM reveal that climate change mitigation/adaptation behavior is affected by attitudes to climate change and perceptions of disaster risk. However, the effects of attitudes and perceptions on mitigation and adaptation that are mediated by place attachment are not statistically significant.

  1. Flood risk perception and adaptation capacity: a contribution to the socio-hydrology debate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Fuchs

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Dealing with flood hazard and risk requires approaches rooted in both natural and social sciences, which provided the nexus for the ongoing debate on socio-hydrology. Various combinations of non-structural and structural flood risk reduction options are available to communities. Focusing on flood risk and the information associated with it, developing risk management plans is required but often overlooks public perception of a threat. The perception of risk varies in many different ways, especially between the authorities and the affected public. It is because of this disconnection that many risk management plans concerning floods have failed in the past. This paper examines the private adaptation capacity and willingness with respect to flooding in two different catchments in Greece prone to multiple flood events during the last 20 years. Two studies (East Attica and Evros were carried out, comprised of a survey questionnaire of 155 and 157 individuals, from a peri-urban (East Attica and a rural (Evros area, respectively, and they focused on those vulnerable to periodic (rural area and flash floods (peri-urban area. Based on the comparisons drawn from these responses, and identifying key issues to be addressed when flood risk management plans are implemented, improvements are being recommended for the social dimension surrounding such implementation. As such, the paper contributes to the ongoing discussion on human–environment interaction in socio-hydrology.

  2. Flood risk perception and adaptation capacity: a contribution to the socio-hydrology debate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuchs, Sven; Karagiorgos, Konstantinos; Kitikidou, Kyriaki; Maris, Fotios; Paparrizos, Spyridon; Thaler, Thomas

    2017-06-01

    Dealing with flood hazard and risk requires approaches rooted in both natural and social sciences, which provided the nexus for the ongoing debate on socio-hydrology. Various combinations of non-structural and structural flood risk reduction options are available to communities. Focusing on flood risk and the information associated with it, developing risk management plans is required but often overlooks public perception of a threat. The perception of risk varies in many different ways, especially between the authorities and the affected public. It is because of this disconnection that many risk management plans concerning floods have failed in the past. This paper examines the private adaptation capacity and willingness with respect to flooding in two different catchments in Greece prone to multiple flood events during the last 20 years. Two studies (East Attica and Evros) were carried out, comprised of a survey questionnaire of 155 and 157 individuals, from a peri-urban (East Attica) and a rural (Evros) area, respectively, and they focused on those vulnerable to periodic (rural area) and flash floods (peri-urban area). Based on the comparisons drawn from these responses, and identifying key issues to be addressed when flood risk management plans are implemented, improvements are being recommended for the social dimension surrounding such implementation. As such, the paper contributes to the ongoing discussion on human-environment interaction in socio-hydrology.

  3. Effects of Adapted Dialogic Reading on Oral Language and Vocabulary Knowledge of Latino Preschoolers at Risk for English Language Delays

    Science.gov (United States)

    Correa, Vivian I.; Lo, Ya-Yu; Godfrey-Hurrell, Kristi; Swart, Katie; Baker, Doris Luft

    2015-01-01

    In this single-case design study, we examined the effects of an adapted dialogic reading intervention on the oral language and vocabulary skills of four Latino preschool children who were at risk for English language delays. We used adapted dialogic reading strategies in English and two literacy games that included a rapid naming activity and…

  4. Responsibility for private sector adaptation to climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tina Schneider

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007 indicates that vulnerable industries should adapt to the increasing likelihood of extreme weather events along with slowly shifting mean annual temperatures and precipitation patterns, to prevent major damages or periods of inoperability in the future. Most articles in the literature on business management frame organizational adaptation to climate change as a private action. This makes adaptation the sole responsibility of a company, for its sole benefit, and overlooks the fact that some companies provide critical goods and services such a food, water, electricity, and medical care, that are so vital to society that even a short-term setback in operations could put public security at risk. This raises the following questions: (1 Who is responsible for climate change adaptation by private-sector suppliers of critical infrastructure? (2 How can those who are identified to be responsible, actually be held to assume their responsibility for adapting to climate change? These questions will be addressed through a comprehensive review of the literature on business management, complemented by a review of specialized literature on public management. This review leads to several conclusions. Even though tasks that formerly belonged to the state have been taken over by private companies, the state still holds ultimate responsibility in the event of failure of private-sector owned utilities, insofar as they are "critical infrastructure." Therefore, it remains the state's responsibility to foster adaptation to climate change with appropriate action. In theory, effective ways of assuming this responsibility, while enabling critical infrastructure providers the flexibility adapt to climate change, would be to delegate adaptation to an agency, or to conduct negotiations with stakeholders. In view of this theory, Germany will be used as a case study to demonstrate how private-sector critical infrastructure

  5. Risk in Nuclear Industry. Liability for Nuclear Damage. Status of the Problem in the Russian Federation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kovalevich, Oleg M.; Gavrilov, Sergey D.; Voronov, Dmitry B.

    2001-01-01

    Russia is one of a few nuclear power states obtaining the whole number of nuclear fuel cycle (NFC) components - from mining of uranium and on-site electricity production, from NPP spent nuclear fuel processing and extracted fissile materials and radionuclides, which are available in industry, in medicine and in other relevant areas, to radioactive waste processing and disposal. For this reason it is very important to solve the problem of nuclear fuel cycle safety as it is a single system task with an adequate approach for all cycle components. The problem is that NFC facilities are technologically various and refer to different industries (mining, machinery engineering, power engineering, chemistry, etc.). Besides, the above facilities need the development of various scientific bases. The most NFC facilities is directly connected with peaceful use of nuclear energy and with military nuclear industry, as the defense orders stimulated the development of NFC. The specific attention to safety problems at the beginning of nuclear complex foundation adversely affected the state attitude towards the risk in nuclear industry, it has left the traces at present. In our paper we touch upon the problems of risk and the liability for nuclear damage for the third persons. The problems of nuclear damage compensation for nuclear facilities personnel and for the owners (operating organizations) are beyond our subject

  6. A diversified portfolio model of adaptability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chandra, Siddharth; Leong, Frederick T L

    2016-12-01

    A new model of adaptability, the diversified portfolio model (DPM) of adaptability, is introduced. In the 1950s, Markowitz developed the financial portfolio model by demonstrating that investors could optimize the ratio of risk and return on their portfolios through risk diversification. The DPM integrates attractive features of a variety of models of adaptability, including Linville's self-complexity model, the risk and resilience model, and Bandura's social cognitive theory. The DPM draws on the concept of portfolio diversification, positing that diversified investment in multiple life experiences, life roles, and relationships promotes positive adaptation to life's challenges. The DPM provides a new integrative model of adaptability across the biopsychosocial levels of functioning. More importantly, the DPM addresses a gap in the literature by illuminating the antecedents of adaptive processes studied in a broad array of psychological models. The DPM is described in relation to the biopsychosocial model and propositions are offered regarding its utility in increasing adaptiveness. Recommendations for future research are also offered. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  7. How many holes is too many? A prototype tool for estimating mosquito entry risk into damaged bed nets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sutcliffe, James; Ji, Xin; Yin, Shaoman

    2017-08-01

    Insecticide-treated bed nets (ITNs) have played an integral role in malaria reduction but how insecticide depletion and accumulating physical damage affect ITN performance is poorly understood. More accurate methods are needed to assess damage to bed nets so that they can be designed, deployed and replaced optimally. Video recordings of female Anopheles gambiae in near approach (1-½ cm) to occupied untreated rectangular bed nets in a laboratory study were used to quantify the amount of mosquito activity (appearances over time) around different parts of the net, the per-appearance probability of a mosquito coming close to holes of different sizes (hole encounter) and the per-encounter probability of mosquitoes passing through holes of different sizes (hole passage). Appearance frequency on different parts of the net reflected previously reported patterns: the area of the net under greatest mosquito pressure was the roof, followed by the bottom 30 cm of the sides, followed by the 30 cm area immediately above this, followed by the upper two-thirds of the sides. The ratio of activity in these areas was (respectively) 250:33:5:1. Per-appearance probability of hole encounter on all parts of the net was strongly predicted by a factor combining hole perimeter and area. Per-encounter probability of hole passage, in turn, was strongly predicted by hole width. For a given width, there was a 20% greater risk of passage through holes on the roof than holes on the sides. Appearance, encounter and passage predictors correspond to various mosquito behaviours that have previously been described and are combined into a prototype mosquito entry risk tool that predicts mosquito entry rates for nets with various amounts of damage. Scenarios that use the entry risk tool to test the recommendations of the WHOPES proportionate hole index (pHI) suggest that the pHI hole size categories and failure to account for hole location likely sometimes lead to incorrect conclusions about net

  8. A risk-adapted approach is beneficial in the management of bilateral femoral shaft fractures in multiple trauma patients: an analysis based on the trauma registry of the German Trauma Society.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steinhausen, Eva; Lefering, Rolf; Tjardes, Thorsten; Neugebauer, Edmund A M; Bouillon, Bertil; Rixen, Dieter

    2014-05-01

    Today, there is a trend toward damage-control orthopedics (DCO) in the management of multiple trauma patients with long bone fractures. However, there is no widely accepted concept. A risk-adapted approach seems to result in low acute morbidity and mortality. Multiple trauma patients with bilateral femoral shaft fractures (FSFs) are considered to be more severely injured. The objective of this study was to validate the risk-adapted approach in the management of multiple trauma patients with bilateral FSF. Data analysis is based on the trauma registry of the German Trauma Society (1993-2008, n = 42,248). Multiple trauma patients with bilateral FSF were analyzed in subgroups according to the type of primary operative strategy. Outcome parameters were mortality and major complications as (multiple) organ failure and sepsis. A total of 379 patients with bilateral FSF were divided into four groups as follows: (1) no operation (8.4%), (2) bilateral temporary external fixation (DCO) (50.9%), bilateral primary definitive osteosynthesis (early total care [ETC]) (25.1%), and primary definitive osteosynthesis of one FSF and DCO contralaterally (mixed) (15.6%). Compared with the ETC group, the DCO group was more severely injured. The incidence of (multiple) organ failure and mortality rates were higher in the DCO group but without significance. Adjusted for injury severity, there was no significant difference of mortality rates between DCO and ETC. Injury severity and mortality rates were significantly increased in the no-operation group. The mixed group was similar to the ETC group regarding injury severity and outcome. In Germany, both DCO and ETC are practiced in multiple trauma patients with bilateral FSF so far. The unstable or potentially unstable patient is reasonably treated with DCO. The clearly stable patient is reasonably treated with nailing. When in doubt, the patient is probably not totally stable, and the safest precaution may be to use DCO as a risk-adapted

  9. Delivering organisational adaptation through legislative mechanisms: Evidence from the Adaptation Reporting Power (Climate Change Act 2008).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jude, S R; Drew, G H; Pollard, S J T; Rocks, S A; Jenkinson, K; Lamb, R

    2017-01-01

    There is increasing recognition that organisations, particularly in key infrastructure sectors, are potentially vulnerable to climate change and extreme weather events, and require organisational responses to ensure they are resilient and adaptive. However, detailed evidence of how adaptation is facilitated, implemented and reported, particularly through legislative mechanisms is lacking. The United Kingdom Climate Change Act (2008), introduced the Adaptation Reporting Power, enabling the Government to direct so-called reporting authorities to report their climate change risks and adaptation plans. We describe the authors' unique role and experience supporting the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) during the Adaptation Reporting Power's first round. An evaluation framework, used to review the adaptation reports, is presented alongside evidence on how the process provides new insights into adaptation activities and triggered organisational change in 78% of reporting authorities, including the embedding of climate risk and adaptation issues. The role of legislative mechanisms and risk-based approaches in driving and delivering adaptation is discussed alongside future research needs, including the development of organisational maturity models to determine resilient and well adapting organisations. The Adaptation Reporting Power process provides a basis for similar initiatives in other countries, although a clear engagement strategy to ensure buy-in to the process and research on its long-term legacy, including the potential merits of voluntary approaches, is required. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Ovarian damage due to cyst removal

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Perlman, Signe; Kjer, Jens J

    2016-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: Surgical treatment of endometriomas and potential damage to the ovary have been debated. Studies have described the inconsistent risk of unintended removal of ovarian tissue when a cystectomy of an endometrioma is performed. We evaluated the risk of inadvertently removed ovarian tis...

  11. The Gap of Climate Adaptation Development of the Spatial Planning System in Taiwan : How the Multilevel Planning Agencies Respond to Climate Risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lin, Y.T.

    2015-01-01

    Recognizing that climate risk is a real threat to the environment and society, spatial planning plays a key role in developing adaptation policy responses as well as in integrating the territorial or spatial impacts of governmental sectoral policies. Planning for adaptation through policy

  12. Responding to Sea Level Rise: Does Short-Term Risk Reduction Inhibit Successful Long-Term Adaptation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keeler, A. G.; McNamara, D. E.; Irish, J. L.

    2018-04-01

    Most existing coastal climate-adaptation planning processes, and the research supporting them, tightly focus on how to use land use planning, policy tools, and infrastructure spending to reduce risks from rising seas and changing storm conditions. While central to community response to sea level rise, we argue that the exclusive nature of this focus biases against and delays decisions to take more discontinuous, yet proactive, actions to adapt—for example, relocation and aggressive individual protection investments. Public policies should anticipate real estate market responses to risk reduction to avoid large costs—social and financial—when and if sea level rise and other climate-related factors elevate the risks to such high levels that discontinuous responses become the least bad alternative.

  13. The external costs of low probability-high consequence events: Ex ante damages and lay risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krupnick, A.J.; Markandya, A.; Nickell, E.

    1994-01-01

    This paper provides an analytical basis for characterizing key differences between two perspectives on how to estimate the expected damages of low probability - high consequence events. One perspective is the conventional method used in the U.S.-EC fuel cycle reports [e.g., ORNL/RFF (1994a,b]. This paper articulates another perspective, using economic theory. The paper makes a strong case for considering this, approach as an alternative, or at least as a complement, to the conventional approach. This alternative approach is an important area for future research. I Interest has been growing worldwide in embedding the external costs of productive activities, particularly the fuel cycles resulting in electricity generation, into prices. In any attempt to internalize these costs, one must take into account explicitly the remote but real possibilities of accidents and the wide gap between lay perceptions and expert assessments of such risks. In our fuel cycle analyses, we estimate damages and benefits' by simply monetizing expected consequences, based on pollution dispersion models, exposure-response functions, and valuation functions. For accidents, such as mining and transportation accidents, natural gas pipeline accidents, and oil barge accidents, we use historical data to estimate the rates of these accidents. For extremely severe accidents--such as severe nuclear reactor accidents and catastrophic oil tanker spills--events are extremely rare and they do not offer a sufficient sample size to estimate their probabilities based on past occurrences. In those cases the conventional approach is to rely on expert judgments about both the probability of the consequences and their magnitude. As an example of standard practice, which we term here an expert expected damage (EED) approach to estimating damages, consider how evacuation costs are estimated in the nuclear fuel cycle report

  14. The external costs of low probability-high consequence events: Ex ante damages and lay risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Krupnick, A J; Markandya, A; Nickell, E

    1994-07-01

    This paper provides an analytical basis for characterizing key differences between two perspectives on how to estimate the expected damages of low probability - high consequence events. One perspective is the conventional method used in the U.S.-EC fuel cycle reports [e.g., ORNL/RFF (1994a,b]. This paper articulates another perspective, using economic theory. The paper makes a strong case for considering this, approach as an alternative, or at least as a complement, to the conventional approach. This alternative approach is an important area for future research. I Interest has been growing worldwide in embedding the external costs of productive activities, particularly the fuel cycles resulting in electricity generation, into prices. In any attempt to internalize these costs, one must take into account explicitly the remote but real possibilities of accidents and the wide gap between lay perceptions and expert assessments of such risks. In our fuel cycle analyses, we estimate damages and benefits' by simply monetizing expected consequences, based on pollution dispersion models, exposure-response functions, and valuation functions. For accidents, such as mining and transportation accidents, natural gas pipeline accidents, and oil barge accidents, we use historical data to estimate the rates of these accidents. For extremely severe accidents--such as severe nuclear reactor accidents and catastrophic oil tanker spills--events are extremely rare and they do not offer a sufficient sample size to estimate their probabilities based on past occurrences. In those cases the conventional approach is to rely on expert judgments about both the probability of the consequences and their magnitude. As an example of standard practice, which we term here an expert expected damage (EED) approach to estimating damages, consider how evacuation costs are estimated in the nuclear fuel cycle report.

  15. Cortisol Reactivity to Social Stress as a Mediator of Early Adversity on Risk and Adaptive Outcomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conradt, Elisabeth; Abar, Beau; Lester, Barry M.; LaGasse, Linda L.; Shankaran, Seetha; Bada, Henrietta; Bauer, Charles R.; Whitaker, Toni M.; Hammond, Jane A.

    2014-01-01

    Children chronically exposed to stress early in life are at increased risk for maladaptive outcomes, though the physiological mechanisms driving these effects are unknown. Cortisol reactivity was tested as a mediator of the relation between prenatal substance exposure and/or early adversity on adaptive and maladaptive outcomes. Data were drawn…

  16. Probabilistic analysis of turbine missile damage to nuclear power plant structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Twisdale, L.A.; Dunn, W.L.; Frank, R.A.

    1983-01-01

    This paper summarizes the results of the EPRI project that focused on the development of the overall probabilistic methodology to assess the risks of turbine missile induced damage to nuclear power plant structures and components. The project was structured to use the results of other EPRI projects that provided information on turbine failure and missile generation frequencies, models to predict the characteristics and exit conditions of the missiles, and experimental data for use in updating empirical impact formulas for reinforced concrete barriers. The research effort included: (1) adaptation and implementation of the missile generation probability and turbine casing impact models developed in Ref. [2]; (2) development of a methodology for the prediction of the motion of the postulated missile fragments that perforate the turbine casing; (3) development of a model using the experimental impact data to predict the effects of fragment impact on nuclear power plant barriers and components; (4) construction of a probabilistic damage assessment methodology using Monte Carlo simulation methodology; and (5) implementation of the methodology into an independent computer program (TURMIS), demonstration of its application to an example case study problem, and assessment of prediction sensitivity. (orig./RW)

  17. Adaptive and Rational Anticipations in Risk Management Systems and Economy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dubois, Daniel M.; Holmberg, Stig C.

    2010-11-01

    The global financial crisis of year 2009 is explained as a result of uncoordinated risk management decisions in business firms and economic organisations. The underlying reason for this can be found in the current financial system. As the financial market has lost much of its direct coupling to the concrete economy it provides misleading information to economic decision makers at all levels. Hence, the financial system has moved from a state of moderate and slow cyclical fluctuations into a state of fast and chaotic ones. Those misleading decisions can further be described, but not explained, by help of adaptive and rational expectations from macroeconomic theory. In this context, AE, the Adaptive Expectations are related to weak passive Exo-anticipation, and RE, the Rational expectations can be related to a strong, active and design oriented anticipation. The shortcomings of conventional cures, which builds on a reactive paradigm, have already been demonstrated in economic literature and are here further underlined by help of Ashby's "Law of Requisite Variety", Weaver's distinction between systems of "Disorganized Complexity" and those of "Organized Complexity", and Klir's "Reconstructability Analysis". Anticipatory decision-making is hence here proposed as a replacement to current expectation based and passive risk management. An anticipatory model of the business cycle is presented for supporting that proposition. The model, which is an extension of the Kaldor-Kalecki model, includes both retardation and anticipation. While cybernetics with the feedback process in control system deals with an explicit goal or purpose given to a system, the anticipatory system discussed here deals with a behaviour for which the future state of the system is built by the system itself, without explicit goal. A system with weak anticipation is based on a predictive model of the system, while a system with strong anticipation builds its own future by itself. Numerical simulations on

  18. Hurricane risk management and climate information gatekeeping in southeast Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    Treuer, G.; Bolson, J.

    2013-12-01

    Tropical storms provide fresh water necessary for healthy economies and health ecosystems. Hurricanes, massive tropical storms, threaten catastrophic flooding and wind damage. Sea level rise exacerbates flooding risks from rain and storm surge for coastal communities. Climate change adaptation measures to manage this risk must be implemented locally, but actions at other levels of government and by neighboring communities impact the options available to local municipalities. When working on adaptation local decision makers must balance multiple types of risk: physical or scientifically described risks, legal risks, and political risks. Generating usable or actionable climate science is a goal of the academic climate community. To do this we need to expand our analysis to include types of risk that constrain the use of objective science. Integrating physical, legal, and political risks is difficult. Each requires specific expertise and uses unique language. An opportunity exists to study how local decision makers manage all three on a daily basis and how their risk management impacts climate resilience for communities and ecosystems. South Florida's particular vulnerabilities make it an excellent case study. Besides physical vulnerabilities (low elevation, intense coastal development, frequent hurricanes, compromised ecosystems) it also has unique legal and political challenges. Federal and state property rights protections create legal risks for government action that restricts land use to promote climate adaptation. Also, a lack of cases that deal with climate change creates uncertainty about the nature of these legal risks. Politically Florida is divided ideologically and geographically. The regions in the southeast which are most vulnerable are predominantly Hispanic and under-represented at the state level, where leadership on climate change is functionally nonexistent. It is conventional wisdom amongst water managers in Florida that little climate adaptation

  19. Perceptions of Australian marine protected area managers regarding the role, importance, and achievability of adaptation for managing the risks of climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher Cvitanovic

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The rapid development of adaptation as a mainstream strategy for managing the risks of climate change has led to the emergence of a broad range of adaptation policies and management strategies globally. However, the success of such policies or management interventions depends on the effective integration of new scientific research into the decision-making process. Ineffective communication between scientists and environmental decision makers represents one of the key barriers limiting the integration of science into the decision-making process in many areas of natural resource management. This can be overcome by understanding the perceptions of end users, so as to identify knowledge gaps and develop improved and targeted strategies for communication and engagement. We assessed what one group of environmental decision makers, Australian marine protected area (MPA managers, viewed as the major risks associated with climate change, and their perceptions regarding the role, importance, and achievability of adaptation for managing these risks. We also assessed what these managers perceived as the role of science in managing the risks from climate change, and identified the factors that increased their trust in scientific information. We do so by quantitatively surveying 30 MPA managers across 3 Australian management agencies. We found that although MPA managers have a very strong awareness of the range and severity of risks posed by climate change, their understanding of adaptation as an option for managing these risks is less comprehensive. We also found that although MPA managers view science as a critical source of information for informing the decision-making process, it should be considered in context with other knowledge types such as community and cultural knowledge, and be impartial, evidence based, and pragmatic in outlining policy and management recommendations that are realistically achievable.

  20. Public Health Adaptation to Climate Change in Canadian Jurisdictions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephanie E. Austin

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change poses numerous risks to the health of Canadians. Extreme weather events, poor air quality, and food insecurity in northern regions are likely to increase along with the increasing incidence and range of infectious diseases. In this study we identify and characterize Canadian federal, provincial, territorial and municipal adaptation to these health risks based on publically available information. Federal health adaptation initiatives emphasize capacity building and gathering information to address general health, infectious disease and heat-related risks. Provincial and territorial adaptation is varied. Quebec is a leader in climate change adaptation, having a notably higher number of adaptation initiatives reported, addressing almost all risks posed by climate change in the province, and having implemented various adaptation types. Meanwhile, all other Canadian provinces and territories are in the early stages of health adaptation. Based on publically available information, reported adaptation also varies greatly by municipality. The six sampled Canadian regional health authorities (or equivalent are not reporting any adaptation initiatives. We also find little relationship between the number of initiatives reported in the six sampled municipalities and their provinces, suggesting that municipalities are adapting (or not adapting autonomously.

  1. Public Health Adaptation to Climate Change in Canadian Jurisdictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Austin, Stephanie E.; Ford, James D.; Berrang-Ford, Lea; Araos, Malcolm; Parker, Stephen; Fleury, Manon D.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change poses numerous risks to the health of Canadians. Extreme weather events, poor air quality, and food insecurity in northern regions are likely to increase along with the increasing incidence and range of infectious diseases. In this study we identify and characterize Canadian federal, provincial, territorial and municipal adaptation to these health risks based on publically available information. Federal health adaptation initiatives emphasize capacity building and gathering information to address general health, infectious disease and heat-related risks. Provincial and territorial adaptation is varied. Quebec is a leader in climate change adaptation, having a notably higher number of adaptation initiatives reported, addressing almost all risks posed by climate change in the province, and having implemented various adaptation types. Meanwhile, all other Canadian provinces and territories are in the early stages of health adaptation. Based on publically available information, reported adaptation also varies greatly by municipality. The six sampled Canadian regional health authorities (or equivalent) are not reporting any adaptation initiatives. We also find little relationship between the number of initiatives reported in the six sampled municipalities and their provinces, suggesting that municipalities are adapting (or not adapting) autonomously. PMID:25588156

  2. Adapting agriculture to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howden, S Mark; Soussana, Jean-François; Tubiello, Francesco N; Chhetri, Netra; Dunlop, Michael; Meinke, Holger

    2007-12-11

    The strong trends in climate change already evident, the likelihood of further changes occurring, and the increasing scale of potential climate impacts give urgency to addressing agricultural adaptation more coherently. There are many potential adaptation options available for marginal change of existing agricultural systems, often variations of existing climate risk management. We show that implementation of these options is likely to have substantial benefits under moderate climate change for some cropping systems. However, there are limits to their effectiveness under more severe climate changes. Hence, more systemic changes in resource allocation need to be considered, such as targeted diversification of production systems and livelihoods. We argue that achieving increased adaptation action will necessitate integration of climate change-related issues with other risk factors, such as climate variability and market risk, and with other policy domains, such as sustainable development. Dealing with the many barriers to effective adaptation will require a comprehensive and dynamic policy approach covering a range of scales and issues, for example, from the understanding by farmers of change in risk profiles to the establishment of efficient markets that facilitate response strategies. Science, too, has to adapt. Multidisciplinary problems require multidisciplinary solutions, i.e., a focus on integrated rather than disciplinary science and a strengthening of the interface with decision makers. A crucial component of this approach is the implementation of adaptation assessment frameworks that are relevant, robust, and easily operated by all stakeholders, practitioners, policymakers, and scientists.

  3. Low doses of ionizing radiation: Relationship between biological benefit and damage induction. A synopsis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Feinendegen, L.E.

    2005-01-01

    Absorption of ionizing radiation in biological tissue stochastically interacts with constituent atoms and molecules and always generates energy deposition (track) events accompanied by bursts of reactive oxygen species (ROS). These ROS are quite similar to those ROS that arise abundantly and constantly by normal oxidative metabolism. ROS effects from either source need attention when assessing radiation-induced alterations in biological structure and function. Endogenous ROS alone induce about 10 6 DNA oxyadducts per cell per day compared to about 5x10 -3 total DNA damage per average cell per day from background radiation exposure (1 mGy per year). At this background level, the corresponding ratio of probabilities of endogenous versus radiogenic DNA double strand breaks (DSBs) per cell per day is about 103 with some 25-40 % of low-LET caused radiogenic DNA-DSBs being of the multi-damage-site type. Radiogenic DNA damage increases in proportion to absorbed dose over a certain dose range. By evolution, tissues possess physiological mechanisms of protection against an array of potentially toxic agents, externally from the environment and endogenously from metabolism, mainly against the abundantly and constantly produced ROS. Ad hoc protection operates at a level that is genetically determined. Following small to moderate perturbation of cell-tissue homeostasis by a toxic impact, adaptive responses develop with a delay and may last from hours to weeks, even months, and aim at protecting the system against renewed insults. Protective responses encompass defense by scavenging mechanisms, DNA repair, damage removal largely by apoptosis and immune responses, as well as changes in cell proliferation. Acute low-dose irradiation below about 0.2 Gy can not only disturb cell-tissue homeostasis but also initiate adaptived protection that appears with a delay of hours and may last from less than a day to months. The balance between damage production and adaptive protection favors

  4. Socioeconomic vulnerability and adaptation to environmental risk: A case study of climate change and flooding in Bangladesh

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brouwer, R.; Akter, S.; Brander, L.M.; Haque, E.

    2007-01-01

    In this article we investigate the complex relationship between environmental risk, poverty, and vulnerability in a case study carried out in one of the poorest and most flood-prone countries in the world, focusing on household and community vulnerability and adaptive coping mechanisms. Based upon

  5. Sealing Clay Text Segmentation Based on Radon-Like Features and Adaptive Enhancement Filters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xia Zheng

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Text extraction is a key issue in sealing clay research. The traditional method based on rubbings increases the risk of sealing clay damage and is unfavorable to sealing clay protection. Therefore, using digital image of sealing clay, a new method for text segmentation based on Radon-like features and adaptive enhancement filters is proposed in this paper. First, adaptive enhancement LM filter bank is used to get the maximum energy image; second, the edge image of the maximum energy image is calculated; finally, Radon-like feature images are generated by combining maximum energy image and its edge image. The average image of Radon-like feature images is segmented by the image thresholding method. Compared with 2D Otsu, GA, and FastFCM, the experiment result shows that this method can perform better in terms of accuracy and completeness of the text.

  6. Assessment and Adaptation to Climate Change-Related Floods Risks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jongman, B.; Winsemius, H.C.; Fraser, S.; Muis, S.; Ward, P.J.

    2018-01-01

    The flooding of rivers and coastlines is the most frequent and damaging of all natural hazards. Between 1980 and 2016, total direct damages exceeded $1.6 trillion, and at least 225,000 people lost their lives. Recent events causing major economic losses include the 2011 river flooding in Thailand

  7. [Liability in Anaesthesiology: theory of disproportionate damage].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galán Gutiérrez, J C; Galán Cortés, J C

    2013-10-01

    An analysis is made of the controversial application of the theory of disproportionate damage in the anaesthetic act, due to the high inherent risk, and regardless of the seriousness and importance of the surgery being performed. The existence of a disproportionate damage, that is, damage not foreseen nor accountable within the framework of the professional performance of the anaesthetist, does not by itself determine the existence of liability on the part of the anaesthetist, but the demand from the professionals themselves for a coherent explanation of the serious disagreement between the initial risk implied by their actions and the final consequence produced. Copyright © 2012 Sociedad Española de Anestesiología, Reanimación y Terapéutica del Dolor. Published by Elsevier España. All rights reserved.

  8. Results of physiological adaptation assessmtn and health risks for labor migrants from Tajikistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Khodzhiev

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The paper focuses on the results of physiological research performed on 9 occupational groups of migrants who came to Moscow region of Russia from southern Central Asia republics. We studied adaptation processes characteristics in labor migrants as per cardiovascular system parameters and neuromuscular apparatus parameters. We revealed peculiarities in heart rate variability (changes in stress index S1, values of AMo, VLF spectrum power, PARS parameter in migrants de-pending on neuro-emotional nature of working activity and muscular loads intensity. We detected apparent decrease in dynamometric parameters of endurance and maximum working capacity of arms muscles and backbones and legs muscles by the end of their working day. We created a procedure to determine an adaptation process stage under combined effects ex-erted by labor physical hardness and neuro-emotional intensity; unsatisfactory adaptation increases health disorders risks. We showed that long-term and intense impacts by factors determining labor process hardness caused occupational diseases of musculoskeletal system and peripheral nervous system. We revealed that as labor intensity grew working stress in a body also increased and it could transform into overstrain and occupational diseases evolvement (primary hypertension, ischemic heart diseases, and neurotic disorders. A distinctive feature is that men suffer from cardiovascular system pathologies more frequently while women tend to suffer from nervous system pathologies. In this relation, we should make separate predictions of occupational pathology probability depending on labor intensity level for males and females. Adaptation processes optimization should include organization of rational work and rest regime, healthy lifestyle for-mation, improvements in medical aid for migrants.

  9. Damage-induced DNA repair processes in Escherichia coli cells

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Slezarikova, V.

    1986-01-01

    The existing knowledge is summed up of the response of Escherichia coli cells to DNA damage due to various factors including ultraviolet radiation. So far, three inducible mechanisms caused by DNA damage are known, viz., SOS induction, adaptation and thermal shock induction. Greatest attention is devoted to SOS induction. Its mechanism is described and the importance of the lexA recA proteins is shown. In addition, direct or indirect role is played by other proteins, such as the ssb protein binding the single-strand DNA sections. The results are reported of a study of induced repair processes in Escherichia coli cells repeatedly irradiated with UV radiation. A model of induction by repeated cell irradiation discovered a new role of induced proteins, i.e., the elimination of alkali-labile points in the daughter DNA synthetized on a damaged model. The nature of the alkali-labile points has so far been unclear. In the adaptation process, regulation proteins are synthetized whose production is induced by the presence of alkylation agents. In the thermal shock induction, new proteins synthetize in cells, whose function has not yet been clarified. (E.S.)

  10. Phenomenon of adaptive response of cells in radiobiology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fillipovich, I.V.

    1991-01-01

    Consideration is given to various adaptive reactions to low-level radiation, their association with an absorbed dose, dose rate, radiation quality and time-interval between exposures, as well as with a cell cycle phase. Possible mechanisms of the adaptive response and the character and role of DNA damages, that can induce gene expression of the adaptive response, are discussed. The data on the influence of a preliminary long-term exposure to low-level radiation on the radiosensitivity of biological objects are analyzed with due regard for the adaptive cell response. It is concluded that the adaptive response of cells to ionizing radiation is a particular case of the phenomenon of cell adaptation of the effect of genotoxic factors of the environment

  11. Driving Meaningful Adaptation Action through an Adaptation Market Mechanism

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Butzengeiger-Geyer, Sonja; Koehler, Michel; Michaelowa, Axel

    2011-07-01

    Approaches and criteria for allocating adaptation funds vary significantly among current sources - UN-backed funds and bilateral cooperation - and to some extent lack transparency and consistency. Such funding risks being spent in a haphazard way that repeats many of the mistakes made in development assistance over the past decades. An Adaptation Market Mechanism (AMM) could contribute to efficient allocation of adaptation funds, promote adaptation activities by private and public actors through additional financial incentives, and raise additional and reliable adaptation money. This would help to avoid future public criticism of the effectiveness and efficiency of spending adaptation funding.The proposed AMM would specify mandatory adaptation targets, on international, regional or domestic level. Participants who achieve their targets either by generating adaptation units or by buying them in the market would incentivize private, commercial and institutional actors to develop adaptation projects that create verified adaptation units. A universally accepted and verifiable trading unit applicable to all types of adaptation activities would help to maximize the cost reduction potential for the AMM. We suggest applying net present value (NPV) for property saved; Disability Adjusted Life Years Saved (DALYS) for health benefits; and potentially a separate unit to consider the environmental benefits of an adaptation activity.(Author)

  12. Communicating Climate Change Risks for Adaptation in Coastal ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Strengthening Livelihood Security and Adapting to Climate Uncertainty in Chilika Lagoon, India. Chilika is a brackish coastal lagoon and biodiversity hotspot situated in the eastern state of Orissa, India. View moreStrengthening Livelihood Security and Adapting to Climate Uncertainty in Chilika Lagoon, India ...

  13. Multi-hazard risk analysis for management strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kappes, M.; Keiler, M.; Bell, R.; Glade, T.

    2009-04-01

    Risk management is very often operating in a reactive way, responding to an event, instead of proactive starting with risk analysis and building up the whole process of risk evaluation, prevention, event management and regeneration. Since damage and losses from natural hazards raise continuously more and more studies, concepts (e.g. Switzerland or South Tyrol-Bolozano) and software packages (e.g. ARMAGEDOM, HAZUS or RiskScape) are developed to guide, standardize and facilitate the risk analysis. But these approaches focus on different aspects and are mostly closely adapted to the situation (legislation, organization of the administration, specific processes etc.) of the specific country or region. We propose in this study the development of a flexible methodology for multi-hazard risk analysis, identifying the stakeholders and their needs, processes and their characteristics, modeling approaches as well as incoherencies occurring by combining all these different aspects. Based on this concept a flexible software package will be established consisting of ArcGIS as central base and being complemented by various modules for hazard modeling, vulnerability assessment and risk calculation. Not all modules will be developed newly but taken from the current state-of-the-art and connected or integrated into ArcGIS. For this purpose two study sites, Valtellina in Italy and Bacelonnette in France, were chosen and the hazards types debris flows, rockfalls, landslides, avalanches and floods are planned to be included in the tool for a regional multi-hazard risk analysis. Since the central idea of this tool is its flexibility this will only be a first step, in the future further processes and scales can be included and the instrument thus adapted to any study site.

  14. Coastal risk management: how to motivate individual economic decisions to lower flood risk?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Filatova, Tatiana; Mulder, J.P.M. P.M.; van der Veen, A.

    2011-01-01

    Coastal flood risk is defined as a product of probability of event and its effect, measured in terms of damage. The paper is focused on coastal management strategies aimed to decrease risk by decreasing potential damage. We review socio-economic literature to show that total flood damage depends on

  15. Modeling of beam-induced damage of the LHC tertiary collimators

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Quaranta

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Modern hadron machines with high beam intensity may suffer from material damage in the case of large beam losses and even beam-intercepting devices, such as collimators, can be harmed. A systematic method to evaluate thresholds of damage owing to the impact of high energy particles is therefore crucial for safe operation and for predicting possible limitations in the overall machine performance. For this, a three-step simulation approach is presented, based on tracking simulations followed by calculations of energy deposited in the impacted material and hydrodynamic simulations to predict the thermomechanical effect of the impact. This approach is applied to metallic collimators at the CERN Large Hadron Collider (LHC, which in standard operation intercept halo protons, but risk to be damaged in the case of extraction kicker malfunction. In particular, tertiary collimators protect the aperture bottlenecks, their settings constrain the reach in β^{*} and hence the achievable luminosity at the LHC experiments. Our calculated damage levels provide a very important input on how close to the beam these collimators can be operated without risk of damage. The results of this approach have been used already to push further the performance of the present machine. The risk of damage is even higher in the upgraded high-luminosity LHC with higher beam intensity, for which we quantify existing margins before equipment damage for the proposed baseline settings.

  16. Modeling of beam-induced damage of the LHC tertiary collimators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quaranta, E.; Bertarelli, A.; Bruce, R.; Carra, F.; Cerutti, F.; Lechner, A.; Redaelli, S.; Skordis, E.; Gradassi, P.

    2017-09-01

    Modern hadron machines with high beam intensity may suffer from material damage in the case of large beam losses and even beam-intercepting devices, such as collimators, can be harmed. A systematic method to evaluate thresholds of damage owing to the impact of high energy particles is therefore crucial for safe operation and for predicting possible limitations in the overall machine performance. For this, a three-step simulation approach is presented, based on tracking simulations followed by calculations of energy deposited in the impacted material and hydrodynamic simulations to predict the thermomechanical effect of the impact. This approach is applied to metallic collimators at the CERN Large Hadron Collider (LHC), which in standard operation intercept halo protons, but risk to be damaged in the case of extraction kicker malfunction. In particular, tertiary collimators protect the aperture bottlenecks, their settings constrain the reach in β* and hence the achievable luminosity at the LHC experiments. Our calculated damage levels provide a very important input on how close to the beam these collimators can be operated without risk of damage. The results of this approach have been used already to push further the performance of the present machine. The risk of damage is even higher in the upgraded high-luminosity LHC with higher beam intensity, for which we quantify existing margins before equipment damage for the proposed baseline settings.

  17. Children and adolescents with migratory experience at risk in language learning and psychosocial adaptation contexts.

    OpenAIRE

    Figueiredo, Sandra; Silva, Carlos Fernandes da; Monteiro, Sara

    2007-01-01

    A compelling body of evidence shows a strong association between psychological, affective and learning variables, related also with the age and gender factors, which are involved in the language learning development process. Children and adolescents with migratory experience (direct/indirect) can develop behaviours at risk in their academic learning and psychosocial adaptation, according to several stressors as anxiety, low motivation, negative attitudes, within a stressed internal l...

  18. Adaptive Response in Animals Exposed to Non-Ionizing Radiofrequency Fields: Some Underlying Mechanisms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi Cao

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available During the last few years, our research group has been investigating the phenomenon of adaptive response in animals exposed to non-ionizing radiofrequency fields. The results from several separate studies indicated a significant increase in survival, decreases in genetic damage as well as oxidative damage and, alterations in several cellular processes in mice pre-exposed to radiofrequency fields and subsequently subjected to sub-lethal or lethal doses of γ-radiation or injected with bleomycin, a radiomimetic chemical mutagen. These observations indicated the induction of adaptive response providing the animals the ability to resist subsequent damage. Similar studies conducted by independent researchers in mice and rats have supported our observation on increased survival. In this paper, we have presented a brief review of all of our own and other independent investigations on radiofrequency fields-induced adaptive response and some underlying mechanisms discussed.

  19. The SAFRR tsunami scenario-physical damage in California: Chapter E in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porter, Keith; Byers, William; Dykstra, David; Lim, Amy; Lynett, Patrick; Ratliff, Jaime; Scawthorn, Charles; Wein, Anne; Wilson, Rick

    2013-01-01

    his chapter attempts to depict a single realistic outcome of the SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) tsunami scenario in terms of physical damage to and recovery of various aspects of the built environment in California. As described elsewhere in this report, the tsunami is generated by a hypothetical magnitude 9.1 earthquake seaward of the Alaska Peninsula on the Semidi Sector of the Alaska–Aleutian Subduction Zone, 495 miles southwest of Anchorage, at 11:50 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (PDT) on Thursday March 27, 2014, and arriving at the California coast between 4:00 and 5:40 p.m. (depending on location) the same day. Although other tsunamis could have locally greater impact, this source represents a substantial threat to the state as a whole. One purpose of this chapter is to help operators and users of coastal assets throughout California to develop emergency plans to respond to a real tsunami. Another is to identify ways that operators or owners of these assets can think through options for reducing damage before a future tsunami. A third is to inform the economic analyses for the SAFRR tsunami scenario. And a fourth is to identify research needs to better understand the possible consequences of a tsunami on these assets. The asset classes considered here include the following: Piers, cargo, buildings, and other assets at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach Large vessels in the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach Marinas and small craft Coastal buildings Roads and roadway bridges Rail, railway bridges, and rolling stock Agriculture Fire following tsunami Each asset class is examined in a subsection of this chapter. In each subsection, we generally attempt to offer a historical review of damage. We characterize and quantify the assets exposed to loss and describe the modes of damage that have been observed in past tsunamis or are otherwise deemed likely to occur in the SAFRR tsunami scenario. Where practical, we offer a mathematical model of the

  20. Health Risk Assessment and DNA Damage of Volatile Organic Compounds in Car Painting Houses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patpida Siripongpokin

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Car painters who work near volatile organic compounds (VOCs sources, including paints, solvents and painting processes may be exposed to highly elevated VOCs levels. This study investigates air samples from car painting houses in Thailand to evaluate the health risks following inhalation exposure. Personal air samplings were obtained at nine garages in Phitsanulok, Thailand from June to September 2012. The concentrations of benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, xylenes, and styrene in the air workplaces were significantly higher than in a control group of office workers (p < 0.05. Toluene, xylene and ethylbenzene were the most abundant species. However, all VOCs in these air samples were lower than TWA limit of Thailand and the OSHA standard. The lifetime cancer and non-cancer risks for the workers exposed to VOCs were also assessed. The average lifetime cancer risk was 41.0 (38.2-47.2 per million, which is in the acceptable risk. The average lifetime non-cancer risk, the HI, was 0.962 (0.643-1.397, which is well below the reference hazard level. Urine samples, collected after 8-h work periods which were analyzed for VOCs metabolites, including t,t muconic acid, hippuric acid, mandelic acid and m-hippuric acid, demonstrate that the average levels of metabolites in car painters and in controls were close. All VOCs metabolites in urine samples were lower than BEI of ACGIH standard. Blood samples, collected after 8-h work periods which were analyzed by single cell gel electrophoresis (comet assay. The DNA damage, assessed by tail moment, demonstrates that the average of tail moment in car painters were significantly higher than in the controls (p < 0.05.

  1. Adaptive Aeroservoelastic Suppression for Aircraft Upset and Damage Conditions, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Impact Technologies, in collaboration with Tennessee State University, propose to develop and demonstrate an adaptive system identification and multi-loop control...

  2. What if quality of damage data is poor: an Entity-Vulnerability approach for flood vulnerability assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naso, Susanna; Chen, Albert S.; Djordjević, Slobodan; Aronica, Giuseppe T.

    2015-04-01

    The classical approach to flood defence, aimed at reducing the probability of flooding through hard defences, has been substituted by flood risk management approach which accepts the idea of coping with floods and aims at reducing not only the probability of flooding, but also the consequences. In this view, the concept of vulnerability becomes central, such as the (non-structural) measures for its increment. On 22 November 2011, an exceptional rainstorm hit the Longano catchment (North-East part of Sicily, Italy) producing local heavy rainfall, mud-debris flow and flash flooding. The flash flood involved property, buildings, roads and more than 100 commercial estates have suffered severe damages. Some days after the event, the municipality provided people forms to describe the damages that occurred on their properties. Unfortunately, the lack of common guidelines in compiling them, their coarseness and the impossibility to have monetary information on them (such us damage data from previous events), did not allow the implementation of a detailed damage analysis. What we're developing in this work is a method for a qualitative evaluation of the consequences of floods, based on vulnerability curves for structures and classes of entities at risk. The difficulty in deriving the vulnerability curves for different building typologies, as function of the water depth, was due to the lack of quantitative information both on damages caused by previous events and on buildings' value. To solve the problem we submitted a questionnaire to a team of experts asking for an estimation of building damages to different hypothetical inundation depths. What we wanted to obtain was deriving the vulnerability data from technicians' experience, believing in the fundamental importance of the collaboration among research and professional engineers. Through the elaboration and the synthesis of the experts' estimations we derived the vulnerability curves for different building typologies and

  3. An assessment of the impact of climate adaptation measures to reduce flood risk on ecosystem services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verburg, Peter H; Koomen, Eric; Hilferink, Maarten; Pérez-Soba, Marta; Lesschen, Jan Peter

    Measures of climate change adaptation often involve modification of land use and land use planning practices. Such changes in land use affect the provision of various ecosystem goods and services. Therefore, it is likely that adaptation measures may result in synergies and trade-offs between a range of ecosystems goods and services. An integrative land use modelling approach is presented to assess such impacts for the European Union. A reference scenario accounts for current trends in global drivers and includes a number of important policy developments that correspond to on-going changes in European policies. The reference scenario is compared to a policy scenario in which a range of measures is implemented to regulate flood risk and protect soils under conditions of climate change. The impacts of the simulated land use dynamics are assessed for four key indicators of ecosystem service provision: flood risk, carbon sequestration, habitat connectivity and biodiversity. The results indicate a large spatial variation in the consequences of the adaptation measures on the provisioning of ecosystem services. Synergies are frequently observed at the location of the measures itself, whereas trade-offs are found at other locations. Reducing land use intensity in specific parts of the catchment may lead to increased pressure in other regions, resulting in trade-offs. Consequently, when aggregating the results to larger spatial scales the positive and negative impacts may be off-set, indicating the need for detailed spatial assessments. The modelled results indicate that for a careful planning and evaluation of adaptation measures it is needed to consider the trade-offs accounting for the negative effects of a measure at locations distant from the actual measure. Integrated land use modelling can help land use planning in such complex trade-off evaluation by providing evidence on synergies and trade-offs between ecosystem services, different policy fields and societal

  4. Muscle Damage Indicators after Land and Aquatic Plyometric Training Programmes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vlatka Wertheimer

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Plyometric training is an important part of athletic conditioning with many significant benefits, including improved motor abilities and performance, but it can also increase the serum indices of muscle damage, collagen breakdown, muscle swelling, and soreness. Due to the physical characteristics of water, plyometric training in water presents less eccentric contraction, facilitates faster transition from the eccentric to concentric phase of a jump and offers greater resistance during concentric contraction with acute lower indices of muscle damage. To advance our understanding of the long-term effects of an eight-week plyometric training programme on land and in water on muscle damage indicators (lactate dehydrogenase (LDH, creatine kinase (CK and serum urea (SU, two experimental groups of physically active men (a group on land (EG1 and a group in water (EG2 were tested before and after the first and the last plyometric training to monitor muscle damage indicators and adaptations. The results showed changes in CK activity after both plyometric trainings for EG1 and only after the first training for EG2. Moreover, after the eight-week programme, significant difference was observed in CK activity in comparison with EG2. There were no observed changes in LDH activity while SU showed greater changes for the group on land. The plyometric training programme in water resulted in smaller levels of muscle damage indicators. Although both experimental groups conducted the same plyometric training with the same jump volume, the eccentric and concentric loads were not the same, so it can be concluded that adaptations in muscle damage processes are faster with smaller eccentric loads.

  5. Confocal Adaptive Optics Imaging of Peripapillary Nerve Fiber Bundles: Implications for Glaucomatous Damage Seen on Circumpapillary OCT Scans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hood, Donald C; Chen, Monica F; Lee, Dongwon; Epstein, Benjamin; Alhadeff, Paula; Rosen, Richard B; Ritch, Robert; Dubra, Alfredo; Chui, Toco Y P

    2015-04-01

    To improve our understanding of glaucomatous damage as seen on circumpapillary disc scans obtained with frequency-domain optical coherence tomography (fdOCT), fdOCT scans were compared to images of the peripapillary retinal nerve fiber (RNF) bundles obtained with an adaptive optics-scanning light ophthalmoscope (AO-SLO). The AO-SLO images and fdOCT scans were obtained on 6 eyes of 6 patients with deep arcuate defects (5 points ≤-15 db) on 10-2 visual fields. The AO-SLO images were montaged and aligned with the fdOCT images to compare the RNF bundles seen with AO-SLO to the RNF layer thickness measured with fdOCT. All 6 eyes had an abnormally thin (1% confidence limit) RNF layer (RNFL) on fdOCT and abnormal (hyporeflective) regions of RNF bundles on AO-SLO in corresponding regions. However, regions of abnormal, but equal, RNFL thickness on fdOCT scans varied in appearance on AO-SLO images. These regions could be largely devoid of RNF bundles (5 eyes), have abnormal-appearing bundles of lower contrast (6 eyes), or have isolated areas with a few relatively normal-appearing bundles (2 eyes). There also were local variations in reflectivity of the fdOCT RNFL that corresponded to the variations in AO-SLO RNF bundle appearance. Relatively similar 10-2 defects with similar fdOCT RNFL thickness profiles can have very different degrees of RNF bundle damage as seen on fdOCT and AO-SLO. While the results point to limitations of fdOCT RNFL thickness as typically analyzed, they also illustrate the potential for improving fdOCT by attending to variations in local intensity.

  6. Proceedings of the adapting to climate change in Canada 2005 conference : understanding risks and building capacity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2005-01-01

    This four-day conference provided a national forum for researchers and decision-makers from a variety of disciplines to share information and results on climate change. Sponsored by Natural Resources Canada's Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Program, the conference explored ways to improve knowledge of Canada's vulnerability to climate change, to better assess the benefits and risks of climate change and to examine policies and options through which decisions on adaptation can be made. Conference topics included issues such as global warming; sustainable development; climate change and agriculture; adaptation strategies; water, coastline and marine management and climate change; municipal level management and climate change; climate change and health issues; and many other topics related to climate change. The conference featured paper and poster presentations, opening remarks, and panel discussions. A total of 118 conference papers and 46 conference posters were presented at the conference of which 17 have been catalogued separately in this database. refs., tabs., figs

  7. Adaptive approaches to biosecurity governance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, David C; Liu, Shuang; Murphy, Brendan; Lonsdale, W Mark

    2010-09-01

    This article discusses institutional changes that may facilitate an adaptive approach to biosecurity risk management where governance is viewed as a multidisciplinary, interactive experiment acknowledging uncertainty. Using the principles of adaptive governance, evolved from institutional theory, we explore how the concepts of lateral information flows, incentive alignment, and policy experimentation might shape Australia's invasive species defense mechanisms. We suggest design principles for biosecurity policies emphasizing overlapping complementary response capabilities and the sharing of invasive species risks via a polycentric system of governance. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis

  8. Evaluation on lifetime risk in reinforced concrete structure; RC kozo no lifetime risk no hyoka ni kansuru kisoteki kenkyu

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Suzuki, M. [Public Works Research Institute, Tsukuba (Japan); Adachi, H. [Taisei Corp., Tokyo (Japan); Akakura, Y. [Ministry of Transport, Tokyo (Japan); Ibayashi, K.; Ozaka, Y. [Tohoku Gakuin Univ., Sendai (Japan)

    1996-02-15

    To evaluate the risk during longevity of reinforced concrete structure subjected to earthquake motions, called lifetime risk, damage and safety were estimated by means of the earthquake risk analysis and earthquake response analysis. For the earthquake risk analysis, historical earthquake data with relatively low accuracy were efficiently taken into account, to determine the annual mean generation probability against the earthquake motion strength in ten main cities. A new damage index with load hysteresis was defined as an anti-earthquake evaluation index where accumulative damage is taken into consideration. Assuming that the damage transits from `certain state` to `certain state` every time the earthquake motion generates at the noticeable place, damage transition matrix expressing transition probability was calculated by using the results of earthquake risk analysis and the accumulative damage index. The lifetime risk was calculated from the damage transition matrix and the earthquake motion generation probability, to evaluate the safety. 21 refs., 10 figs., 8 tabs.

  9. Risk assessment and adaptive runoff utilization in water resource system considering the complex relationship among water supply, electricity generation and environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, J.; Zeng, X.; Mo, L.; Chen, L.; Jiang, Z.; Feng, Z.; Yuan, L.; He, Z.

    2017-12-01

    Generally, the adaptive utilization and regulation of runoff in the source region of China's southwest rivers is classified as a typical multi-objective collaborative optimization problem. There are grim competitions and incidence relation in the subsystems of water supply, electricity generation and environment, which leads to a series of complex problems represented by hydrological process variation, blocked electricity output and water environment risk. Mathematically, the difficulties of multi-objective collaborative optimization focus on the description of reciprocal relationships and the establishment of evolving model of adaptive systems. Thus, based on the theory of complex systems science, this project tries to carry out the research from the following aspects: the changing trend of coupled water resource, the covariant factor and driving mechanism, the dynamic evolution law of mutual feedback dynamic process in the supply-generation-environment coupled system, the environmental response and influence mechanism of coupled mutual feedback water resource system, the relationship between leading risk factor and multiple risk based on evolutionary stability and dynamic balance, the transfer mechanism of multiple risk response with the variation of the leading risk factor, the multidimensional coupled feedback system of multiple risk assessment index system and optimized decision theory. Based on the above-mentioned research results, the dynamic method balancing the efficiency of multiple objectives in the coupled feedback system and optimized regulation model of water resources is proposed, and the adaptive scheduling mode considering the internal characteristics and external response of coupled mutual feedback system of water resource is established. In this way, the project can make a contribution to the optimal scheduling theory and methodology of water resource management under uncertainty in the source region of Southwest River.

  10. Human Lung Cancer Risks from Radon – Part I - Influence from Bystander Effects - A Microdose Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonard, Bobby E.; Thompson, Richard E.; Beecher, Georgia C.

    2010-01-01

    Since the publication of the BEIR VI report in 1999 on health risks from radon, a significant amount of new data has been published showing various mechanisms that may affect the ultimate assessment of radon as a carcinogen, at low domestic and workplace radon levels, in particular the Bystander Effect (BE) and the Adaptive Response radio-protection (AR). We analyzed the microbeam and broadbeam alpha particle data of Miller et al. (1995, 1999), Zhou et al. (2001, 2003, 2004), Nagasawa and Little (1999, 2002), Hei et al. (1999), Sawant et al. (2001a) and found that the shape of the cellular response to alphas is relatively independent of cell species and LET of the alphas. The same alpha particle traversal dose response behavior should be true for human lung tissue exposure to radon progeny alpha particles. In the Bystander Damage Region of the alpha particle response, there is a variation of RBE from about 10 to 35. There is a transition region between the Bystander Damage Region and Direct Damage Region of between one and two microdose alpha particle traversals indicating that perhaps two alpha particle “hits” are necessary to produce the direct damage. Extrapolation of underground miners lung cancer risks to human risks at domestic and workplace levels may not be valid. PMID:21731539

  11. Danger, hazard, risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kafka, P.

    1992-01-01

    The real conditions covered by technical safety studies are described better by the term 'risk' instead of such qualitative terms as 'danger' or 'hazard'. 'Risk' incorporates not only the type of damage, the onset of damage, the probability of damage occurring, but also the extent of damage. In reliability and safety engineering, a probabilistic safety analysis is able to describe a plant most comprehensively by these three elements: What can happen? How frequently will it occur? What are the impacts to be taken into account? PSA is meaningful not only when applied to such technical areas in which there is a risk potential; the holistic analytical process optimizes any kind of system and plant in terms of availability and technical safety. (orig.) [de

  12. Damage characterization for particles filled semi-crystalline polymer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lauro Franck

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Damage evolution and characterization in semi-crystalline polymer filled with particles under various loadings is still a challenge. A specific damage characterization method using Digital Image Correlation is proposed for a wide range of strain rates considering tensile tests with hydraulic jacks as well as Hopkinson's bars. This damage measurement is obtained by using and adapting the SEE method [1] which was developed to characterize the behaviour laws at constant strain rates of polymeric materials in dynamic. To validate the characterization process, various damage measurement techniques are used under quasi-static conditions before to apply the procedure in dynamic. So, the well-known damage characterization by loss of stiffness technique under quasi-static loading is applied to a polypropylene. In addition, an in-situ tensile test, carried out in a microtomograph, is used to observe the cavitation phenomenon in real time. A good correlation is obtained between all these techniques and consequently the proposed technique is supposed suitable for measuring the ductile damage observed in semi-crystalline polymers under dynamic loading. By applying it to the semi-crystalline polymer at moderate and high speed loadings, the damage evolution is measured and it is observed that the damage evolution is not strain rate dependent but the failure strain on the contrary is strain rate dependent.

  13. Radio-adaptive response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ikushima, T.

    1992-01-01

    Knowledge about cellular events in mammalian cells exposed to low doses of ionizing radiation is meager. Recent works showed that human lymphocytes become resistant to radiation-induced chromosomal damage after exposure to low doses of ionizing radiation. Experimental evidence for radio-adaptive response (RAR) in cultured mammalian cells was obtained. Exposure to very low doses of gamma-rays or tritium beta-rays make cells less susceptible to the induction of micronuclei and sister chromatid exchanges by subsequent higher doses. Many important characteristics of the novel response suggest that RAR is a stress response resulting in the enhanced repair of chromosomal DNA damage in cell under restricted conditions. Experiments are still in progress in order to elucidate the molecular basis for RAR processes. (author). 13 refs.; 2 figs., 1 tab

  14. Effects of changes along the risk chain on flood risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duha Metin, Ayse; Apel, Heiko; Viet Dung, Nguyen; Guse, Björn; Kreibich, Heidi; Schröter, Kai; Vorogushyn, Sergiy; Merz, Bruno

    2017-04-01

    Interactions of hydrological and socio-economic factors shape flood disaster risk. For this reason, assessment of flood risk ideally takes into account the whole flood risk chain from atmospheric processes, through the catchment and river system processes to the damage mechanisms in the affected areas. Since very different processes at various scales are interacting along the flood risk, the impact of the single components is rather unclear. However for flood risk management, it is required to know the controlling factor of flood damages. The present study, using the flood-prone Mulde catchment in Germany, discusses the sensitivity of flood risk to disturbances along the risk chain: How do disturbances propagate through the risk chain? How do different disturbances combine or conflict and affect flood risk? In this sensitivity analysis, the five components of the flood risk change are included. These are climate, catchment, river system, exposure and vulnerability. A model framework representing the complete risk chain is combined with observational data to understand how the sensitivities evolve along the risk chain by considering three plausible change scenarios for each of five components. The flood risk is calculated by using the Regional Flood Model (RFM) which is based on a continuous simulation approach, including rainfall-runoff, 1D river network, 2D hinterland inundation and damage estimation models. The sensitivity analysis covers more than 240 scenarios with different combinations of the five components. It is investigated how changes in different components affect risk indicators, such as the risk curve and expected annual damage (EAD). In conclusion, it seems that changes in exposure and vulnerability seem to outweigh changes in hazard.

  15. Assessment of Urban Pluvial Flood Risk and Efficiency of Adaptation Options Through Simulations – A New Generation of Urban Planning Tools

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Löwe, Roland; Urich, Christian; Sto. Domingo, Niña Donna Farpale

    2017-01-01

    the possibility to systematically test various flood risk adaptation measures ranging from large infrastructure changes over decentralised water management to urban planning policies. We have tested the framework in a case study in Melbourne, Australia considering 9 scenarios for urban development and climate......-off investments. Urban planning policies proved to be an efficient means for the reduction of flood risk, while implementing property buyback and pipe increases in a guideline-oriented manner was too costly. Random variations in location and time point of urban development could have significant impact on flood......We present a new framework for flexible testing of flood risk adaptation strategies in a variety of urban development and climate scenarios. This framework couples the 1D-2D hydrodynamic simulation package MIKE FLOOD with the agent-based urban development model DAnCE4Water and provides...

  16. UV-B damage amplified by transposons in maize

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Walbot, V.

    1999-01-01

    While absorbing visible light energy for photosynthesis, plants are unavoidably exposed to ultraviolet radiation, which is particularly harmful at shorter wavelengths (UV-B radiation). Ozone depletion in the atmosphere means that plants receive episodic or steadily increasing doses of UV-B, which damages their photosynthetic reaction centres, crosslinks cellular proteins, and induces mutagenic DNA lesions. Plant adaptive mechanisms of shielding and repair are therefore critical to survival — for example, somatic tissues of maize and Arabidopsis defective in phenolic sunscreen pigments incur increased DNA damage, and mutants defective in DNA repair are killed by UV-B

  17. Flood damage data gathering: procedures and use

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molinari, D.; Aronica, G. T.; Ballio, F.; Berni, N.; Pandolfo, C.

    2012-04-01

    Damage data represents the basis on which flood risk models, re-founding schemes and mitigation activities are grounded on. Nevertheless damage data have been collected so far mainly at the national-regional scale; few databases exist at the local scale and, even if present, no standard exist for their development. On the contrary, risk analyses and mitigation strategies are usually carried out at local scale. This contribution describes the ongoing activity to collect and analyze local damage data coming from past events with recently hit Umbria an Sicily regions (central and south part of Italy respectively). Data from past events will be discussed from two different perspectives. In Italy, procedures to gather damage data after a flood are defined by law. According to this, authors will first question whether or not collected data are suitable to give an exhaustive representation of the total impact the events had on the affected territories. As regards, suggestions are provided about how gathering procedures can improve. On the other hand, collected data will be discussed with respect to their implementation in the definition of depth-damage curves for the Italian context; literature review highlights indeed that no curves are available for Italy. Starting from the knowledge of observed hazard intensity and damage data, available curves from other countries are validated, the objective being to reduce the uncertainty which currently characterise damage estimation. Indeed, a variety of curves can be found in literature and the choice of one curve in place of another can change damage assessment results of one order of magnitude. The validation procedure will allow, in its turn, to face a secondary but key question for the contribution, being the identification of those hazard and vulnerability features that should be recorded and kept updated in a local GIS database to support risk modelling, funding and management. The two areas under investigation are prone to

  18. Assessing changes in extreme convective precipitation from a damage perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schroeer, K.; Tye, M. R.

    2016-12-01

    Projected increases in high-intensity short-duration convective precipitation are expected even in regions that are likely to become more arid. Such high intensity precipitation events can trigger hazardous flash floods, debris flows and landslides that put people and local assets at risk. However, the assessment of local scale precipitation extremes is hampered by its high spatial and temporal variability. In addition to which, not only are extreme events rare, but such small scale events are likely to be underreported where they don't coincide with the observation network. Rather than focus solely on the convective precipitation, understanding the characteristics of these extremes which drive damage may be more effective to assess future risks. Two sources of data are used in this study. First, sub-daily precipitation observations over the Southern Alps enable an examination of seasonal and regional patterns in high-intensity convective precipitation and their relationship with weather types. Secondly, reports of private loss and damage on a household scale are used to identify which events are most damaging, or what conditions potentially enhance the vulnerability to these extremes.This study explores the potential added value from including recorded loss and damage data to understand the risks from summertime convective precipitation events. By relating precipitation generating weather types to the severity of damage we hope to develop a mechanism to assess future risks. A further benefit would be to identify from damage reports the likely occurrence of precipitation extremes where no direct observations are available and use this information to validate remotely sensed observations.

  19. Antioxidant supplementation does not alter endurance training adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yfanti, Christina; Åkerström, Thorbjörn; Nielsen, Søren

    2010-01-01

    ) production, which may cause cell damage. However, RONS production may also activate redox sensitive signaling pathways and transcription factors, which subsequently may promote training adaptation. PURPOSE: Our aim was to investigate the effects of combined vitamin C and E supplementation to healthy...... measured. CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that administration of vitamins C and E to individuals with no prior vitamin deficiencies has no effect on physical adaptations to strenuous endurance training....

  20. Is all risk bad? Young adult cigarette smokers fail to take adaptive risk in a laboratory decision-making test.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dean, Andy C; Sugar, Catherine A; Hellemann, Gerhard; London, Edythe D

    2011-06-01

    Cigarette smoking has been linked to real-world risky behavior, but this association has been based largely on retrospective self-reports. Limitations of self-report data can be avoided by using laboratory, performance-based measures, such as the Balloon Analogue Risk Task (BART; Lejuez et al., J Exp Psychol Appl 8:75-84, 2002). Initial studies have suggested that smokers display greater risk-taking on this task than nonsmokers, but these studies did not account for drug abuse and psychiatric comorbidities, which are commonplace among smokers. We sought to examine the performance of smokers and nonsmokers on the BART after excluding drug abuse and psychiatric comorbidities. We conducted a study of late adolescent/young adult (age 18 to 21) smokers (n = 26) and nonsmokers (n = 38) performing the BART and excluded individuals with positive drug or alcohol toxicology screens, substance abuse or dependence diagnoses, and/or current psychiatric conditions. Contrary to previous findings, smokers did not display greater risk-taking on the BART than nonsmokers. In fact, when performance was examined trial-by-trial, the nonsmokers displayed progressively greater pumping relative to smokers over time (p adaptive.

  1. Adaptation to Climate Change in Forestry: A Multiple Correspondence Analysis (MCA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marielle Brunette

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available We analyze economic perspectives of forest adaptation to risk attributes, caused mostly by climate change. We construct a database with 89 systematically chosen articles, dealing simultaneously with climate, adaptation, risk and economy. We classify the database with regard to 18 variables bearing on the characteristics of the paper, the description of the risk and the adaptation strategy, the topic and the corresponding results. To achieve a “high level-of-evidence”, we realize a multiple correspondence analysis (MCA to identify which variables were found in combination with one other in the literature and make distinct groupings affecting adaptive decisions. We identify three groups: (i profit and production; (ii microeconomic risk-handling; and (iii decision and behavior. The first group includes economic costs and benefits as the driver of adaptation and prioritizes simulation, and a mix of theoretical and empirical economic approach. The second group distinctly involves risk-related issues, in particular its management by adaptation. The third group gathers a large set of social and behavioral variables affecting management decisions collected through questionnaires. Such an approach allows the identification of gaps in the literature, concerning the impact of owners’ preferences towards risk and uncertainty regarding adaptation decisions, the fact that adaptation was often reduced in an attempt to adapt to the increasing risk of wildfire, or the existence of a regional bias.

  2. Self-repairing control for damaged robotic manipulators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eisler, G.R.; Robinett, R.D.; Dohrmann, C.R.; Driessen, B.J.

    1997-03-01

    Algorithms have been developed allowing operation of robotic systems under damaged conditions. Specific areas addressed were optimal sensor location, adaptive nonlinear control, fault-tolerant robot design, and dynamic path-planning. A seven-degree-of-freedom, hydraulic manipulator, with fault-tolerant joint design was also constructed and tested. This report completes this project which was funded under the Laboratory Directed Research and Development program

  3. Liver Damage Risk Assessment Study in Workers Occupationally Exposed to E-waste in Benin City, South-South Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Osaretin God Igaro Igaro

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available    Large volumes of mostly irreparable electronic waste (e-waste are shipped to Africa on a monthly basis, of which Nigeria receives the largest share. E-waste management practices in Nigeria have remained completely primitive until date; and e-waste workers have little or no occupational safety knowledge and devices. The thousands of chemicals in e-waste have been reported to be toxic to human health in any degree of exposure. The present study has assessed the risk of liver damage in workers occupationally exposed to e-waste in Benin City, South-south Nigeria in 2014. Serum activities of liver enzymes [alanine aminotransferase (ALT, aspartate aminotransferase (AST, gamma glutamyltransferase (GGT and alkaline phosphatase (ALP]; and levels albumin (ALB, total bilirubin (T/Bil and conjugated bilirubin (C/Bil were determined using standard colorimetric methods. Serum Alpha fetoprotein (AFP was determined using ELISA in Nigerian e-waste workers (n=63 and in age-matched unexposed participants (n=41 in Benin City. The results showed significantly raised activities of enzymatic biomarkers of liver damage (ALT, AST, ALP and GGT in the e-waste group compared with the unexposed participants. There was no significant difference in the levels of ALB, T/Bil and C/Bil between exposed and unexposed participants. AFP levels in e-waste workers (3.56 ± 0.34 ng/mL were significantly different compared with the unexposed group (2.14 ± 0.80 ng/mL (P< 0.045. The significantly elevated cancer risk biomarker (AFP and the enzymatic biomarkers of liver damage observed in the Nigerian e-waste workers studied may be associated with occupational exposure to known carcinogens and hepatotoxic metals in e-waste. 

  4. A Social Discount Rate for Climate Damage to Future Generations Based on Regulatory Law

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Davidson, M.D. [Department of Philosophy, Faculty of Humanities, University of Amsterdam, Nieuwe Doelenstraat 15, 1012 CP Amsterdam (Netherlands)

    2006-05-15

    This article examines the implications for the social discount rate for damage due to climate change if risk to future generations is handled in accordance with the laws regulating our handling of risk to contemporaries. The conclusions are the following. Under current law, neither geographic distance nor differences in wealth between risk creator and risk bearer play any part in establishing a standard of 'reasonable care'. The concept of intergenerational justice requires these same principles to be applied in the intergenerational context too, implying a zero consumption rate of interest for climate damage. Assuming that the extent to which mitigation is at the expense of alternative investments is equal to society's marginal propensity to save, the social discount rate becomes society's marginal propensity to save times the long-term market rate of return on private investment, implying a social discount rate of around one per cent or a fraction of one per cent. This formula is exact under the assumption of average saving behaviour and by attributing consumption losses due to investment in damage prevention before damage occurs to the risk creator and after damage occurs to the risk bearer.

  5. Walking Flexibility after Hemispherectomy: Split-Belt Treadmill Adaptation and Feedback Control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Julia T.; Vining, Eileen P. G.; Reisman, Darcy S.; Bastian, Amy J.

    2009-01-01

    Walking flexibility depends on use of feedback or reactive control to respond to unexpected changes in the environment, and the ability to adapt feedforward or predictive control for sustained alterations. Recent work has demonstrated that cerebellar damage impairs feedforward adaptation, but not feedback control, during human split-belt treadmill…

  6. Eccentric Contraction-Induced Muscle Fibre Adaptation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arabadzhiev T. I.

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Hard-strength training induces strength increasing and muscle damage, especially after eccentric contractions. Eccentric contractions also lead to muscle adaptation. Symptoms of damage after repeated bout of the same or similar eccentrically biased exercises are markedly reduced. The mechanism of this repeated bout effect is unknown. Since electromyographic (EMG power spectra scale to lower frequencies, the adaptation is related to neural adaptation of the central nervous system (CNS presuming activation of slow-non-fatigable motor units or synchronization of motor unit firing. However, the repeated bout effect is also observed under repeated stimulation, i.e. without participation of the CNS. The aim of this study was to compare the possible effects of changes in intracellular action potential shape and in synchronization of motor units firing on EMG power spectra. To estimate possible degree of the effects of central and peripheral changes, interferent EMG was simulated under different intracellular action potential shapes and different degrees of synchronization of motor unit firing. It was shown that the effect of changes in intracellular action potential shape and muscle fibre propagation velocity (i.e. peripheral factors on spectral characteristics of EMG signals could be stronger than the effect of synchronization of firing of different motor units (i.e. central factors.

  7. A Framework for Benefit-Cost Analysis of Adaptation to Climate Change and Climate Variability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leary, N.A.

    1999-01-01

    The potential damages of climate change and climate variability are dependent upon the responses or adaptations that people make to their changing environment. By adapting the management of resources, the mix and methods of producing goods and services, choices of leisure activities, and other behavior, people can lessen the damages that would otherwise result. A framework for assessing the benefits and costs of adaptation to both climate change and climate variability is described in the paper. The framework is also suitable for evaluating the economic welfare effects of climate change, allowing for autonomous adaptation by private agents. The paper also briefly addresses complications introduced by uncertainty regarding the benefits of adaptation and irreversibility of investments in adaptation. When investment costs are irreversible and there is uncertainty about benefits, the usual net present value criterion for evaluating the investment gives the wrong decision. If delaying an adaptation project is possible, and if delay will permit learning about future benefits of adaptation, it may be preferable to delay the project even if the expected net present value is positive. Implications of this result for adaptation policy are discussed in the paper. 11 refs

  8. Adaptive Markets and the New World Order

    OpenAIRE

    Lo, Andrew W.

    2012-01-01

    In the adaptive markets hypothesis (AMH) intelligent but fallible investors learn from and adapt to changing economic environments. This implies that markets are not always efficient but are usually competitive and adaptive, varying in their degree of efficiency as the environment and investor population change over time. The AMH has several implications, including the possibility of negative risk premiums, alpha converging to beta, and the importance of macro factors and risk budgeting in as...

  9. Conflict monitoring and adaptation in individuals at familial risk for developing bipolar disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patino, Luis R; Adler, Caleb M; Mills, Neil P; Strakowski, Stephen M; Fleck, David E; Welge, Jeffrey A; DelBello, Melissa P

    2013-05-01

    To examine conflict monitoring and conflict-driven adaptation in individuals at familial risk for developing bipolar disorder. We recruited 24 adolescents who had a parent with bipolar disorder and 23 adolescents with healthy parents. Participants completed an arrow version of the Eriksen Flanker Task that included trials with three levels of conflict: neutral, congruent, and incongruent flanks. Differences in performance were explored based upon the level of conflict in the current and previous trials. Individuals at risk for developing bipolar disorder performed more slowly than youth with healthy parents in all trials. Analyses evaluating sequential effects revealed that at-risk subjects responded more slowly than youth of healthy parents for all trial types when preceded by an incongruent trial, for incongruent trials preceded by congruent trials, and for neutral and congruent trials when preceded by neutral trials. In contrast to the comparison group, at-risk adolescents failed to display a response time advantage for incongruent trials preceded by an incongruent trial. When removing subjects with attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), differences between groups in response time fell below significant level, but a difference in sequence modulation remained significant. Subjects at risk for bipolar disorder also displayed greater intra-subject response time variability for incongruent and congruent trials compared with the comparison adolescents. No differences in response accuracy were observed between groups. Adolescents at risk for developing bipolar disorder displayed specific deficits in cognitive flexibility, which might be useful as a potential marker related to the development of bipolar disorder. © 2013 John Wiley and Sons A/S. Published by Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  10. Adapting Judicial Supervision to the Risk Level of Drug Offenders: Discharge and 6-month Outcomes from a Prospective Matching Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marlowe, Douglas B.; Festinger, David S.; Dugosh, Karen L.; Lee, Patricia A.; Benasutti, Kathleen M.

    2007-01-01

    This article reports recent findings from a program of experimental research examining the effects of adapting judicial supervision to the risk level of drug-abusing offenders. Prior studies revealed that high-risk participants with (1) antisocial personality disorder or (2) a history of drug abuse treatment performed significantly better in drug court when they were scheduled to attend frequent, bi-weekly judicial status hearings in court. Low-risk participants performed equivalently regardless of the schedule of court hearings. The current study prospectively matched misdemeanor drug court clients to the optimal schedule of court hearings based upon an assessment of their risk status, and compared outcomes to those of clients randomly assigned to the standard schedule of court hearings. Results confirmed that high-risk participants graduated at a higher rate, provided more drug-negative urine specimens at 6 months post-admission, and reported significantly less drug use and alcohol intoxication at 6 months post-admission when they were matched to bi-weekly hearings as compared to the usual schedule of hearings. These findings yield practical information for enhancing the efficacy and cost-efficiency of drug court services. Directions for future research on adaptive programming for drug offenders are discussed. PMID:17071020

  11. Three-Dimensional Normal Human Neural Progenitor Tissue-Like Assemblies: A Model for Persistent Varicell-Zoster Virus Infection and Platform to Study Viral Infectivity and Oxidative Stress and Damage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodwin, T. J.; McCarthy, M.; Osterrieder, N.; Cohrs, R. J.; Kaufer, B. B.

    2014-01-01

    The environment of space results in a multitude of challenges to the human physiology that present barriers to extended habitation and exploration. Over 40 years of investigation to define countermeasures to address space flight adaptation has left gaps in our knowledge regarding mitigation strategies partly due to the lack of investigative tools, monitoring strategies, and real time diagnostics to understand the central causative agent(s) responsible for physiologic adaptation and maintaining homeostasis. Spaceflight-adaptation syndrome is the combination of space environmental conditions and the synergistic reaction of the human physiology. Our work addresses the role of oxidative stress and damage (OSaD) as a negative and contributing Risk Factor (RF) in the following areas of combined spaceflight related dysregulation: i) radiation induced cellular damage [1], [2] ii) immune impacts and the inflammatory response [3], [4] and iii) varicella zoster virus (VZV) reactivation [5]. Varicella-zoster (VZV)/Chicken Pox virus is a neurotropic human alphaherpesvirus resulting in varicella upon primary infection, suppressed by the immune system becomes latent in ganglionic neurons, and reactivates under stress events to re-express in zoster and possibly shingles. Our laboratory has developed a complex threedimensional (3D) normal human neural tissue model that emulates several characteristics of the human trigeminal ganglia (TG) and allows the study of combinatorial experimentation which addresses, simultaneously, OSaD associated with Spaceflight adaptation and habitation [6].

  12. Drivers of flood damage on event level

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kreibich, H.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Apel, H.

    2016-01-01

    Flood risk is dynamic and influenced by many processes related to hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Flood damage increased significantly over the past decades, however, resulting overall economic loss per event is an aggregated indicator and it is difficult to attribute causes to this increasing...... trend. Much has been learned about damaging processes during floods at the micro-scale, e.g. building level. However, little is known about the main factors determining the amount of flood damage on event level. Thus, we analyse and compare paired flood events, i.e. consecutive, similar damaging floods...... example are the 2002 and 2013 floods in the Elbe and Danube catchments in Germany. The 2002 flood caused the highest economic damage (EUR 11600 million) due to a natural hazard event in Germany. Damage was so high due to extreme flood hazard triggered by extreme precipitation and a high number...

  13. Contribution to adaptive radiotherapy by systematic analysis of the entrance fluence and exit patient dose

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Celi, Sofia

    2016-01-01

    Modern radiation therapy combines complex techniques and personalized treatments, with the risk that certain evolutions and errors occurring during the course of the treatment might go unnoticed. These fluctuations may cause great damage to the health of the patient. In this perspective, we worked on the potential of a transit in vivo dosimetry system for continuous monitoring of the patient and, hereafter, adaptive radiotherapy. Our clinical experience and feasibility testing determined the main lines of work: automation and simplification of the results analysis method. The developments included the creation of a golden data library and a series of root cause analyzes, allowing us to strengthen the accuracy of the system, to enhance the automation of the setup and to identify tracks for an efficient analysis of the results and for the creation of additional analytical tools to facilitate the monitoring and adaptation of the treatments in clinical routine [fr

  14. The cellular adaptive response the role in life organisms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, H.

    1998-01-01

    Exposure of living cells to ionizing radiation may cause DNA damage that are generally harmful to the organism. This paper discuss the cellular adaptive response which may be seen when cells which have already been exposed to low concentration radiation doses are subsequently exposed to high concentration doses. It also discusses evidence of the adaptive response in laboratory animals and from limited epidemiological studies. (Author)

  15. Radio-adaptive response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ikushima, T.

    1992-01-01

    An adaptive response to radiation stress was found as a suppressed induction of chromosomal damage including micronuclei and sister chromatid exchanges in cultured Chinese hamster V79 cells pre-exposed to very low doses of ionizing radiations. The mechanism underlying this novel chromosomal response, called 'radio-adaptive response (RAR)' has been studied progressively. The following results were obtained in recent experiments. 1. Low doses of β-rays from tritiated water (HTO) as well as tritium-thymidine can cause RAR. 2. Thermal neutrons, a high LET radiation, can not act as tritium β-rays or γ-rays. 3. The RAR expression is suppressed not only by the treatment with an inhibitor of protein synthesis but also by RNA synthesis inhibition. 4. Several proteins are newly synthesized concurrently with the RAR expression after the adapting doses, viewed by two-dimensional electrophoresis of cellular proteins. These results suggests that the RAR might be a cellular stress response to a signal produced preferentially by very low doses of low LET radiation under restricted conditions, accompany the inducible specific gene expression. (author)

  16. Association between iron level, glucose impairment and increased DNA damage during pregnancy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zein, Salam; Rachidi, Samar; Shami, Nadine; Sharara, Iman; Cheikh-Ali, Khawla; Gauchez, Anne-Sophie; Moulis, Jean-Marc; Ayoubi, Jean-Marc; Salameh, Pascale; Hininger-Favier, Isabelle

    2017-09-01

    Elevated circulating ferritin has been reported to increase the risk of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM). When high ferritin translates into high iron stores, iron excess is also a condition leading to free radical damage. We aimed to evaluate the relationship between oxidative stress (OS) induced by iron status and GDM risk in non iron-supplemented pregnant women. This was a pilot observational study conducted on 93 non-anemic pregnant women. Iron status was assessed at the first trimester of gestation. Blood sampling was done at 24-28 weeks' gestation for oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT), insulin and biological markers of oxidative damage tests. A significant increase in DNA damage was found in patients who developed GDM. Women with elevated DNA damage had a six-fold increased risk of developing GDM (Exp (B)=6.851, P=0.038; 95% CI [1.108-42.375]). The serum ferritin levels at first trimester were significantly correlated to lipid peroxidation (rho=0.24, p=0.012). The stratified analysis suggests that ferritin is a modifying factor for the correlation of oxidative stress (OS) and glucose intolerance. Moderate ferritin levels due to iron intake without iron-supplement, at early pregnancy is a modifying factor for the correlation of oxidative damage and glucose intolerance in pregnant women. Larger studies to evaluate the risk of food iron intake induced increased oxidative damage in offspring are warranted to propose nutrition advice regarding iron intake in women with a high risk of GDM. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

  17. Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms in Noncoding Regions of Rad51C Do Not Change the Risk of Unselected Breast Cancer but They Modulate the Level of Oxidative Stress and the DNA Damage Characteristics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gresner, Peter; Gromadzinska, Jolanta; Jablonska, Ewa

    2014-01-01

    affect the unselected BrC risk. Contrary to this, carriers of rs12946522, rs16943176, rs12946397 and rs17222691 rare-alleles were found to present significantly increased level of blood plasma TBARS compared to respective wild-type homozygotes (p... decreased fraction of oxidatively generated DNA damage (34% of total damaged DNA) in favor of DNA strand breakage, with no effect on total DNA damage, unlike respective wild-types, among which more evenly distributed proportions between oxidatively damaged DNA (48% of total DNA damage) and DNA strand...

  18. Review of the Oconee-3 probabilistic risk assessment: external events, core damage frequency. Volume 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hanan, N.A.; Ilberg, D.; Xue, D.; Youngblood, R.; Reed, J.W.; McCann, M.; Talwani, T.; Wreathall, J.; Kurth, P.D.; Bandyopadhyay, K.

    1986-03-01

    A review of the Oconee-3 Probabilistic Risk Assessment (OPRA) was conducted with the broad objective of evaluating qualitatively and quantitatively (as much as possible) the OPRA assessment of the important sequences that are ''externally'' generated and lead to core damage. The review included a technical assessment of the assumptions and methods used in the OPRA within its stated objective and with the limited information available. Within this scope, BNL performed a detailed reevaluation of the accident sequences generated by internal floods and earthquakes and a less detailed review (in some cases a scoping review) for the accident sequences generated by fires, tornadoes, external floods, and aircraft impact. 12 refs., 24 figs., 31 tabs.

  19. Review of the Oconee-3 probabilistic risk assessment: external events, core damage frequency. Volume 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hanan, N.A.; Ilberg, D.; Xue, D.

    1986-03-01

    A review of the Oconee-3 Probabilistic Risk Assessment (OPRA) was conducted with the broad objective of evaluating qualitatively and quantitatively (as much as possible) the OPRA assessment of the important sequences that are ''externally'' generated and lead to core damage. The review included a technical assessment of the assumptions and methods used in the OPRA within its stated objective and with the limited information available. Within this scope, BNL performed a detailed reevaluation of the accident sequences generated by internal floods and earthquakes and a less detailed review (in some cases a scoping review) for the accident sequences generated by fires, tornadoes, external floods, and aircraft impact. 12 refs., 24 figs., 31 tabs

  20. Identification and analysis of uncertainty in disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation in South and Southeast Asia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Keur, van der Peter; Bers, van Caroline; Henriksen, Hans Jørgen; Nibanupudi, Hari Krishna; Yadav, Shobha; Wijaya, Rina; Subiyono, Andreas; Mukerjee, Nandan; Hausmann, Hans Jakob; Hare, Matt; Scheltinga, van Catharien Terwisscha; Pearn, Gregory; Jaspers, Fons

    2016-01-01

    This paper addresses the mainstreaming of uncertainty in Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) and Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) using as a case South and Southeast Asia, a region highly vulnerable to a wide range of natural disasters. Improvements in the implementation of DRR and CCA at the community

  1. Role of DNA damage repair capacity in radiation induced adaptive response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yuan Dexiao; Pan Yan; Zhao Meijia; Chen Honghong; Shao Cunlin

    2009-01-01

    This work was to explore γ-ray induced radioadaptive response (RAR) in Chinese hamster ovary(CHO) cell lines of different DNA damage repair capacities. CHO-9 cells and the two repair-deficient strains, EM-C11(DNA single strand break repair deficient) and XR-C1(DNA double strand break repair deficient), were irradiated with a priming dose of 0.08 Gy or 0.016 Gy. After 4 or 7 hours, they were irradiated again with a challenging dose of 1 Gy. The micronucleus induction and plating efficiency of the cells were assayed. Under 0.08 Gy priming dose and 4-h interval, just the CHO-9 cells showed RAR, while with the 7-h interval the CHO-9 and EM-C11 showed RAR, but XR-C1 did not. When the cells were pretreated with a lower priming dose of 0.016 Gy in a 4-h time interval, all the three cell lines showed RAR to subsequent 1 Gy irradiation. It can be concluded that RAR is not only related to the priming dose and time interval, but also has close dependence on the ability of DNA damage repair. (authors)

  2. Mangroves can provide protection against wind damage during storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, Saudamini; Crépin, Anne-Sophie

    2013-12-01

    Research has established that mangroves can protect lives and property from storms by buffering the impacts of storm surges. However, their effects in attenuating wind velocity and providing protection from wind damage during storms are not known. This study examined whether mangroves attenuate damage from cyclonic winds and found that they provide substantial protection to properties, even relatively far away from mangroves and the coast. We devised a theoretical model of wind protection by mangroves and calibrated and applied this model using data from the 1999 cyclone in the Odisha region of India. The model predicted and quantified the actual level of damage reasonably accurately and showed that mangroves reduced wind damage to houses. The wind protection value of mangroves in reducing house damage amounted to approximately US$177 per hectare at 1999 prices. This provides additional evidence of the storm protection ecosystem services that mangroves supply in the region and an additional reason to invest in mangrove ecosystems to provide better adaptability to coastal disasters such as storms.

  3. An economic approach to 'losses and damages'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roulleau, Thomas

    2015-01-01

    Given ever more greenhouse gas emissions, developing countries have recently placed the issue of 'losses and damages' on the bargaining table. The losses and damages ensuing from climate catastrophes depend on factors that are both planetary (extreme meteorological phenomena wherein climate change is a factor) and domestic (the exposure and vulnerability of populations). The Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage Associated with Climate Change Impacts was set up in 2013. Several developing countries are demanding that it become autonomous with its own funding. This demand does not seem justified scientifically or economically in the current context. Although economic losses owing to climate-related catastrophes have increased in recent decades, they are, as scientific studies have shown, due to increases in wealth and in the population's exposure and not to climate change as such. Furthermore, the aforementioned funding mechanism risks impeding efficient domestic actions for reducing a country's vulnerability and its population's exposure to climate-related risks

  4. Adaptation to Climate Change in Risk and Vulnerability Analysis on a Municipal Level, a basis for further work; Anpassning till klimatfoeraendringar i risk- och saarbarhetsanalyser paa kommunal nivaa, underlag foer fortsatt arbete

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mossberg Sonnek, Karin; Lindberg, Anna; Lindgren, Johan

    2007-12-15

    The aim of Risk and Vulnerability Analysis (RVA) at local authority level in Sweden is to increase the capacity of local authorities to handle crises and to reduce vulnerability in the community. RVA processes could be an appropriate starting-point for discussions on how the community is influenced by climate change and how its effects could be reduced using various adjustment measures. In the report we present four methods: ROSA, MVA, IBERO and the Car Dun AB method. These have all been developed to support Swedish local authority RVA processes. We also present five international frameworks that have been developed by the organisations UNDP, USAID, UKCIP, C-CIARN and CSIRO to help decision-makers and stakeholders to adapt to climate change. Together, these descriptions form a foundation for continuing the work being done within the project Climatools, in which tools are being produced to be used by local authorities in adapting to climate change. In the report, we also discuss the concepts 'risk', 'vulnerability' and 'adaptation' and how analysis of adaptation to climate change has changed in recent years.

  5. Multi-stage identification scheme for detecting damage in structures under ambient excitations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bao, Chunxiao; Li, Zhong-Xian; Hao, Hong

    2013-01-01

    Structural damage identification methods are critical to the successful application of structural health monitoring (SHM) systems to civil engineering structures. The dynamic response of civil engineering structures is usually characterized by high nonlinearity and non-stationarity. Accordingly, an improved Hilbert–Huang transform (HHT) method which is adaptive, output-only and applicable to system identification of in-service structures under ambient excitations is developed in this study. Based on this method, a multi-stage damage detection scheme including the detection of damage occurrence, damage existence, damage location and the estimation of damage severity is developed. In this scheme, the improved HHT method is used to analyse the structural acceleration response, the obtained instantaneous frequency detects the instant of damage occurrence, the instantaneous phase is sensitive to minor damage and provides reliable damage indication, and the damage indicator developed based on statistical analysis of the Hilbert marginal spectrum detects damage locations. Finally, the response sampled at the detected damage location is continuously analysed to estimate the damage severity. Numerical and experimental studies of frame structures under ambient excitations are performed. The results demonstrate that this scheme accomplishes the above damage detection functions within one flow. It is robust, time efficient, simply implemented and applicable to the real-time SHM of in-service structures. (paper)

  6. Multigenerational epigenetic adaptation of the hepatic wound-healing response.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeybel, Müjdat; Hardy, Timothy; Wong, Yi K; Mathers, John C; Fox, Christopher R; Gackowska, Agata; Oakley, Fiona; Burt, Alastair D; Wilson, Caroline L; Anstee, Quentin M; Barter, Matt J; Masson, Steven; Elsharkawy, Ahmed M; Mann, Derek A; Mann, Jelena

    2012-09-01

    We investigated whether ancestral liver damage leads to heritable reprogramming of hepatic wound healing in male rats. We found that a history of liver damage corresponds with transmission of an epigenetic suppressive adaptation of the fibrogenic component of wound healing to the male F1 and F2 generations. Underlying this adaptation was less generation of liver myofibroblasts, higher hepatic expression of the antifibrogenic factor peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor γ (PPAR-γ) and lower expression of the profibrogenic factor transforming growth factor β1 (TGF-β1) compared to rats without this adaptation. Remodeling of DNA methylation and histone acetylation underpinned these alterations in gene expression. Sperm from rats with liver fibrosis were enriched for the histone variant H2A.Z and trimethylation of histone H3 at Lys27 (H3K27me3) at PPAR-γ chromatin. These modifications to the sperm chromatin were transmittable by adaptive serum transfer from fibrotic rats to naive rats and similar modifications were induced in mesenchymal stem cells exposed to conditioned media from cultured rat or human myofibroblasts. Thus, it is probable that a myofibroblast-secreted soluble factor stimulates heritable epigenetic signatures in sperm so that the resulting offspring better adapt to future fibrogenic hepatic insults. Adding possible relevance to humans, we found that people with mild liver fibrosis have hypomethylation of the PPARG promoter compared to others with severe fibrosis.

  7. Assessment of cardiovascular risk and target organ damage among adult patients with primary hypertension in Thika Level 5 Hospital, Kenya: a criteria-based clinical audit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mwita, Clifford Chacha; Akello, Walter; Sisenda, Gloria; Ogoti, Evans; Tivey, David; Munn, Zachary; Mbogo, David

    2013-06-01

    Appropriate management of hypertension reduces the risk of death from stroke and cardiac disease and includes routine assessment for target organ damage and estimation of cardiovascular risk. However, implementation of evidence-based hypertension management guidelines is unsatisfactory. We explore the use of audit and feedback as a quality improvement (QI) strategy for reducing the knowledge practice gap in hypertension care in a resource poor setting. The aim of this study is to determine the level of compliance to evidence-based guidelines on assessment of cardiovascular risk and target organ damage among patients with hypertension in Thika Level 5 Hospital in central Kenya and to implement best practice with regard to evidence utilisation among clinicians in the hospital. A retrospective clinical audit done in three phases spread over 5 months. Phase one involved identifying five audit criteria on assessment of cardiovascular risk and target organ damage in patients with hypertension and conducting a baseline audit in which compliance to audit criteria, blood pressure control and drug prescription practices were assessed. Phase two involved identifying barriers to compliance to audit criteria and strategies to overcoming these barriers. The third phase was a follow-up audit. There was no use of a cardiovascular risk assessment tool in both audits (0% vs. 0%; P = 1.00). Testing urine for haematuria and proteinuria reduced from 13% to 8% (P = 0.230) while taking a blood sample for measuring blood glucose, electrolytes and creatinine levels improved from 11% to 17% (P = 0.401). Performance of fundoscopy and electrocardiography remained unchanged at 2% and 8%, respectively (P = 0.886 and P = 0.898). High patient load was identified as the biggest barrier to implementation of best practice. Blood pressure control improved from 33% to 70% (P ≤ 0.001), whereas the proportion of patients on two or more recommended antihypertensive drugs rose

  8. Is There an Inherent Risk to Damage the Popliteus Tendon by Femoral Component With Inbuilt External Rotation? A Pilot Study in Indian Knees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chouhan, Dervendra Kumar; Dhillon, Mandeep S

    2016-02-01

    Femoral components with inbuilt rotation require thicker flexion resection of the lateral femoral condyle and could have a potential risk of damaging the popliteus tendon, especially in the smaller Asian knees. We prospectively evaluated 10 patients with bilateral varus osteoarthritis knee to size the cuts and their location in relation to the popliteus tendon. Two different types of implant were used on either side; one side requires resection in 3° external rotation (group A) and the other side requires a femoral component with inbuilt external rotation (group B). We observed the incidence of injury to the popliteus tendon and distance between flexion cut to its attachment over the lateral femoral condyle between both groups. We had popliteus tendon injury in 3 knees all from group B. Risk of damaging the popliteus tendon was found higher in group B, as the distance between flexion cut to popliteus tendon attachment was significantly low. Femoral component with inbuilt external rotation has more risk of injuring the popliteus tendon because flexion cut takes out more bone from the lateral femoral condyle. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Risk of obstructive sleep apnea with daytime sleepiness is associated with liver damage in non-morbidly obese patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edoardo Alessandro Pulixi

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: A high prevalence of obstructive sleep apnea syndrome (OSAS has been reported in severely obese patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD, but few studies have evaluated OSAS in non-morbidly obese NAFLD patients. AIMS: To determine the prevalence of risk for OSAS with or without daytime sleepiness in non-morbidly obese patients with NAFLD and evaluate the association with the severity of liver damage. METHODS: We considered 159 consecutive patients with histological NAFLD and body mass index (BMI 1; 9/13, 69% vs. 39/146, 27%; p = 0.003. At multivariate logistic regression analysis, OSAS with sleepiness was strongly associated with NASH and fibrosis>1 independently of known clinical risk factors such as age, gender, BMI, diabetes, and ALT levels (OR 7.1, 95% c.i. 1.7-51, p = 0.005 and OR 14.0, 95% c.i. 3.5-70, p = 0.0002, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: A proportion of NAFLD patients without severe obesity is at risk for OSAS with daytime sleepiness, which is associated with the severity of liver damage independently of body mass and other cofactors.

  10. Medium Range Flood Forecasting for Agriculture Damage Reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fakhruddin, S. H. M.

    2014-12-01

    Early warning is a key element for disaster risk reduction. In recent decades, major advancements have been made in medium range and seasonal flood forecasting. This progress provides a great opportunity to reduce agriculture damage and improve advisories for early action and planning for flood hazards. This approach can facilitate proactive rather than reactive management of the adverse consequences of floods. In the agricultural sector, for instance, farmers can take a diversity of options such as changing cropping patterns, applying fertilizer, irrigating and changing planting timing. An experimental medium range (1-10 day) flood forecasting model has been developed for Bangladesh and Thailand. It provides 51 sets of discharge ensemble forecasts of 1-10 days with significant persistence and high certainty. This type of forecast could assist farmers and other stakeholders for differential preparedness activities. These ensembles probabilistic flood forecasts have been customized based on user-needs for community-level application focused on agriculture system. The vulnerabilities of agriculture system were calculated based on exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Indicators for risk and vulnerability assessment were conducted through community consultations. The forecast lead time requirement, user-needs, impacts and management options for crops were identified through focus group discussions, informal interviews and community surveys. This paper illustrates potential applications of such ensembles for probabilistic medium range flood forecasts in a way that is not commonly practiced globally today.

  11. Damage assessment in Braunsbach 2016: data collection and analysis for an improved understanding of damaging processes during flash floods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laudan, Jonas; Rözer, Viktor; Sieg, Tobias; Vogel, Kristin; Thieken, Annegret H.

    2017-12-01

    Flash floods are caused by intense rainfall events and represent an insufficiently understood phenomenon in Germany. As a result of higher precipitation intensities, flash floods might occur more frequently in future. In combination with changing land use patterns and urbanisation, damage mitigation, insurance and risk management in flash-flood-prone regions are becoming increasingly important. However, a better understanding of damage caused by flash floods requires ex post collection of relevant but yet sparsely available information for research. At the end of May 2016, very high and concentrated rainfall intensities led to severe flash floods in several southern German municipalities. The small town of Braunsbach stood as a prime example of the devastating potential of such events. Eight to ten days after the flash flood event, damage assessment and data collection were conducted in Braunsbach by investigating all affected buildings and their surroundings. To record and store the data on site, the open-source software bundle KoBoCollect was used as an efficient and easy way to gather information. Since the damage driving factors of flash floods are expected to differ from those of riverine flooding, a post-hoc data analysis was performed, aiming to identify the influence of flood processes and building attributes on damage grades, which reflect the extent of structural damage. Data analyses include the application of random forest, a random general linear model and multinomial logistic regression as well as the construction of a local impact map to reveal influences on the damage grades. Further, a Spearman's Rho correlation matrix was calculated. The results reveal that the damage driving factors of flash floods differ from those of riverine floods to a certain extent. The exposition of a building in flow direction shows an especially strong correlation with the damage grade and has a high predictive power within the constructed damage models. Additionally

  12. Adapting to rates versus amounts of climate change: a case of adaptation to sea-level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shayegh, Soheil; Moreno-Cruz, Juan; Caldeira, Ken

    2016-10-01

    Adaptation is the process of adjusting to climate change in order to moderate harm or exploit beneficial opportunities associated with it. Most adaptation strategies are designed to adjust to a new climate state. However, despite our best efforts to curtail greenhouse gas emissions, climate is likely to continue changing far into the future. Here, we show how considering rates of change affects the projected optimal adaptation strategy. We ground our discussion with an example of optimal investment in the face of continued sea-level rise, presenting a quantitative model that illustrates the interplay among physical and economic factors governing coastal development decisions such as rate of sea-level rise, land slope, discount rate, and depreciation rate. This model shows that the determination of optimal investment strategies depends on taking into account future rates of sea-level rise, as well as social and political constraints. This general approach also applies to the development of improved strategies to adapt to ongoing trends in temperature, precipitation, and other climate variables. Adaptation to some amount of change instead of adaptation to ongoing rates of change may produce inaccurate estimates of damages to the social systems and their ability to respond to external pressures.

  13. Preliminary Efficacy of Adapted Responsive Teaching for Infants at Risk of Autism Spectrum Disorder in a Community Sample

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grace T. Baranek

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This study examined the (a feasibility of enrolling 12-month-olds at risk of ASD from a community sample into a randomized controlled trial, (b subsequent utilization of community services, and (c potential of a novel parent-mediated intervention to improve outcomes. The First Year Inventory was used to screen and recruit 12-month-old infants at risk of ASD to compare the effects of 6–9 months of Adapted Responsive Teaching (ART versus referral to early intervention and monitoring (REIM. Eighteen families were followed for ~20 months. Assessments were conducted before randomization, after treatment, and at 6-month follow-up. Utilization of community services was highest for the REIM group. ART significantly outperformed REIM on parent-reported and observed measures of child receptive language with good linear model fit. Multiphase growth models had better fit for more variables, showing the greatest effects in the active treatment phase, where ART outperformed REIM on parental interactive style (less directive, child sensory responsiveness (less hyporesponsive, and adaptive behavior (increased communication and socialization. This study demonstrates the promise of a parent-mediated intervention for improving developmental outcomes for infants at risk of ASD in a community sample and highlights the utility of earlier identification for access to community services earlier than standard practice.

  14. Simulating the Adaptive Mechanisms to Reduce the Risks of Occurence of Threats to the Economic Security of Enterprise

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Glushchevsky Vyacheslav V.

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The article is concerned with addressing the topical problem of effectively countering real and potential threats to economic security of enterprises and reducing the risks of their occurrence. The article is aimed at simulating the adaptive mechanisms to counteract external influences on the marketing component of enterprise’s economic security and developing a system of measures for removing threats to price destabilization of its orders portfolio based on a modern economic-mathematical instrumentarium. The common causes of the threats occurrence related to the price policy of enterprise and the tactics of the contractual processes with the business partners have been explored. Hidden reserves for price maneuvering in concluding contracts with customers have been identified. An algorithmic model for an adaptive pricing task in terms of an assortment of industrial enterprise has been built. On the basis of this model, mechanisms have been developed to counteract the threats of occurrence and aggravation of a «price conflict» between the producing enterprise and the potential customers of its products, and to advise on how to remove the risks of their occurrence. Prospects for using the methodology together with the instrumentarium for economic-mathematical modeling in terms of tasks of the price risks management have been indicated.

  15. Flood Risk and Probabilistic Benefit Assessment to Support Management of Flood-Prone Lands: Evidence From Candaba Floodplains, Philippines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juarez, A. M.; Kibler, K. M.; Sayama, T.; Ohara, M.

    2016-12-01

    Flood management decision-making is often supported by risk assessment, which may overlook the role of coping capacity and the potential benefits derived from direct use of flood-prone land. Alternatively, risk-benefit analysis can support floodplain management to yield maximum socio-ecological benefits for the minimum flood risk. We evaluate flood risk-probabilistic benefit tradeoffs of livelihood practices compatible with direct human use of flood-prone land (agriculture/wild fisheries) and nature conservation (wild fisheries only) in Candaba, Philippines. Located north-west to Metro Manila, Candaba area is a multi-functional landscape that provides a temporally-variable mix of possible land uses, benefits and ecosystem services of local and regional value. To characterize inundation from 1.3- to 100-year recurrence intervals we couple frequency analysis with rainfall-runoff-inundation modelling and remotely-sensed data. By combining simulated probabilistic floods with both damage and benefit functions (e.g. fish capture and rice yield with flood intensity) we estimate potential damages and benefits over varying probabilistic flood hazards. We find that although direct human uses of flood-prone land are associated with damages, for all the investigated magnitudes of flood events with different frequencies, the probabilistic benefits ( 91 million) exceed risks by a large margin ( 33 million). Even considering risk, probabilistic livelihood benefits of direct human uses far exceed benefits provided by scenarios that exclude direct "risky" human uses (difference of 85 million). In addition, we find that individual coping strategies, such as adapting crop planting periods to the flood pulse or fishing rather than cultivating rice in the wet season, minimize flood losses ( 6 million) while allowing for valuable livelihood benefits ($ 125 million) in flood-prone land. Analysis of societal benefits and local capacities to cope with regular floods demonstrate the

  16. Provisions against damage in permits of environment-related large facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wagner, H.

    1980-01-01

    The author in detail covers the legal treatment of technological risks, especially the roles played by experts and those applying the law, when it comes to the application of uncertain legal terms and criteria of evaluating the principle of provision for damage. He finds that an increasingly more important role was played by the legal evaluation of risks stemming from large technical facilities, in addition to the (socio-)political assessment of the consequences of technologies. For risk assessment, engineers had a primary responsibility, but the evaluation of risk in an overall process of weighing legal assets was a responsibility of lawyers. The residual risk to be tolerated legally (without the compulsory need to make provisions for damage) was to be determined by weighing legal assets, by the principle of adequacy, and by comparative risk assessment. (HSCH) [de

  17. Climate Change Adaptation Decision Making for Glacial Lake Outburst Floods From Palcacocha Lake in Peru

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cuellar, A. D.; McKinney, D. C.

    2014-12-01

    Climate change has accelerated glacial retreat in high altitude glaciated regions of Peru leading to the growth and formation of glacier lakes. Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOF) are sudden events triggered by an earthquake, avalanche into the lake or other shock that causes a sudden outflow of water. These floods are catastrophic because of their sudden onset, the difficulty predicting them, and enormous quantity of water and debris rapidly flooding downstream areas. Palcacocha Lake in the Peruvian Andes has experienced accelerated growth since it burst in 1941 and threatens the major city of Huaraz and surrounding communities. Since the 1941 flood stakeholders have advocated for projects to adapt to the increasing threat posed by Palcacocha Lake. Nonetheless, discussions surrounding projects for Palcacocha have not included a rigorous analysis of the potential consequences of a flood, probability of an event, or costs of mitigation projects. This work presents the first step to rationally analyze the risks posed by Palcacocha Lake and the various adaptation projects proposed. In this work the authors use decision analysis to asses proposed adaptation measures that would mitigate damage in downstream communities from a GLOF. We use an existing hydrodynamic model of the at-risk area to determine how adaptation projects will affect downstream flooding. Flood characteristics are used in the HEC-FIA software to estimate fatalities and injuries from an outburst flood, which we convert to monetary units using the value of a statistical life. We combine the monetary consequences of a GLOF with the cost of the proposed projects and a diffuse probability distribution for the likelihood of an event to estimate the expected cost of the adaptation plans. From this analysis we found that lowering the lake level by 15 meters has the least expected cost of any proposal despite uncertainty in the effect of lake lowering on flooding downstream.

  18. A Multi-Risk Approach to Climate Change Adaptation, Based on an Analysis of South Korean Newspaper Articles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Youngeun Kang

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available The risks caused by climate change are worsening worldwide, and it is recognized that national and regional responses to climate change are essential. This study therefore explores climate change risks that have been recognized as fatal to people and the environment by analyzing multi-influence factors that appear in multiple risk indicators. The climate change risks in this study are based on 73 existing risk indicators; the frame data for multi-influence risk factors are based on 3098 newspaper articles published over 24 years on the impact of climate change in South Korea. The main outcomes for this study were finding climate change risk trend from newspaper articles regarding climate change impacts through text-mining, and figuring out the multi-risk indicators that are likely to occur at the same time with other risk indicators using network analysis. From the network analysis, we found that the major risk indicators have a high degree of interrelationship among risk indicators, including “increase in mortality rate from disaster”, “increase in flood areas due to coastal flooding”, and “destruction of repair facilities due to flooding (river bank, etc.”. The main risk indicators derived from this study can therefore be used as a reasonable standard when identifying the main risks posed by climate change and defining future adaptation planning priorities.

  19. Ionizing radiation-induced DNA damage and repair as a potential biomarker in biodosimetry, cancer risk analysis and for prediction of radiotherapy induced toxicity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Satish Rao, B.S.

    2017-01-01

    Lymphocytes isolated from peripheral blood from 100 healthy individuals, 232 cancer patients (cervical, breast cancer and head and neck cancer) irradiated in vitro or in vivo were used for measuring DNA damage and repair. The microscopic method of the γ-H2AX assay was adopted to elucidate the significance of DSB in biodosimetry, cancer risk susceptibility, and normal tissue toxicity prediction. We validated the use of H2AX assay in early triage biodosimetry by using lymphocytes from cervical cancer patients exposed to radiotherapy. Further, the basal and residual damage was significantly higher in cancer individuals compared to the healthy individuals. In cancer patients undergoing radiotherapy, we could able to show the increase in normal tissue toxicity with decreased DSB repair capacity. In conclusion this study indicates the DSB estimation by γ-H2AX foci analysis can serve as a tool to understand the triage of radiation exposed individuals, identifying individuals at cancer risk and normal tissue toxicity

  20. Legislative Study on China’s Compensation for Nuclear Damage Liability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiu Liu

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available The civil nuclear industry plays an important role in improving environmental quality and safeguarding energy security in China. Nevertheless, the industry is facing a huge risk of nuclear accident damage. The legal system of nuclear damage compensation is of vital importance for the industry to address potential risks. The Nuclear Safety Law, which has recently been published in China, stipulates two articles about nuclear damage compensation in principle. However, in general, the current nuclear damage compensation legal system in China has not yet been made systematic and there are still problems, such as a lack of maneuverability and details. This paper adopts qualitative and quantitative methodologies to summarize and analyze the current legislation and regulation pertaining to civil nuclear damage compensation liability in China and analyzes the shortages and deficiencies of these rules in detail by using legal analysis methods. Suggestions to establish and perfect China’s legal system of nuclear damage compensation are proposed to safeguard the healthy development of the civil nuclear industry and remedy damages brought about by nuclear accidents. Such a legal system should contain the elements of clear legislative goals and objectives, a specific definition and scope of nuclear damage, strict and sole responsibility principles for operators, an appropriate liability amount, a stable financial guarantee for operators, and national supplementary liability.

  1. DNA damage in neurodegenerative diseases

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coppedè, Fabio, E-mail: fabio.coppede@med.unipi.it; Migliore, Lucia, E-mail: lucia.migliore@med.unipi.it

    2015-06-15

    Highlights: • Oxidative DNA damage is one of the earliest detectable events in the neurodegenerative process. • The mitochondrial DNA is more vulnerable to oxidative attack than the nuclear DNA. • Cytogenetic damage has been largely documented in Alzheimer's disease patients. • The question of whether DNA damage is cause or consequence of neurodegeneration is still open. • Increasing evidence links DNA damage and repair with epigenetic phenomena. - Abstract: Following the observation of increased oxidative DNA damage in nuclear and mitochondrial DNA extracted from post-mortem brain regions of patients affected by neurodegenerative diseases, the last years of the previous century and the first decade of the present one have been largely dedicated to the search of markers of DNA damage in neuronal samples and peripheral tissues of patients in early, intermediate or late stages of neurodegeneration. Those studies allowed to demonstrate that oxidative DNA damage is one of the earliest detectable events in neurodegeneration, but also revealed cytogenetic damage in neurodegenerative conditions, such as for example a tendency towards chromosome 21 malsegregation in Alzheimer's disease. As it happens for many neurodegenerative risk factors the question of whether DNA damage is cause or consequence of the neurodegenerative process is still open, and probably both is true. The research interest in markers of oxidative stress was shifted, in recent years, towards the search of epigenetic biomarkers of neurodegenerative disorders, following the accumulating evidence of a substantial contribution of epigenetic mechanisms to learning, memory processes, behavioural disorders and neurodegeneration. Increasing evidence is however linking DNA damage and repair with epigenetic phenomena, thereby opening the way to a very attractive and timely research topic in neurodegenerative diseases. We will address those issues in the context of Alzheimer's disease

  2. DNA damage in neurodegenerative diseases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coppedè, Fabio; Migliore, Lucia

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Oxidative DNA damage is one of the earliest detectable events in the neurodegenerative process. • The mitochondrial DNA is more vulnerable to oxidative attack than the nuclear DNA. • Cytogenetic damage has been largely documented in Alzheimer's disease patients. • The question of whether DNA damage is cause or consequence of neurodegeneration is still open. • Increasing evidence links DNA damage and repair with epigenetic phenomena. - Abstract: Following the observation of increased oxidative DNA damage in nuclear and mitochondrial DNA extracted from post-mortem brain regions of patients affected by neurodegenerative diseases, the last years of the previous century and the first decade of the present one have been largely dedicated to the search of markers of DNA damage in neuronal samples and peripheral tissues of patients in early, intermediate or late stages of neurodegeneration. Those studies allowed to demonstrate that oxidative DNA damage is one of the earliest detectable events in neurodegeneration, but also revealed cytogenetic damage in neurodegenerative conditions, such as for example a tendency towards chromosome 21 malsegregation in Alzheimer's disease. As it happens for many neurodegenerative risk factors the question of whether DNA damage is cause or consequence of the neurodegenerative process is still open, and probably both is true. The research interest in markers of oxidative stress was shifted, in recent years, towards the search of epigenetic biomarkers of neurodegenerative disorders, following the accumulating evidence of a substantial contribution of epigenetic mechanisms to learning, memory processes, behavioural disorders and neurodegeneration. Increasing evidence is however linking DNA damage and repair with epigenetic phenomena, thereby opening the way to a very attractive and timely research topic in neurodegenerative diseases. We will address those issues in the context of Alzheimer's disease

  3. Impact of climate change, seedling type and provenance on the risk of damage to Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) seedlings in Sweden due to early summer frosts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Langvall, Ola (Swedish Univ. of Agricultural Sciences, Unit for Field-based Forest Research, Asa Forest Research Station, Lammhult (Sweden))

    2011-04-15

    A model including site-specific microclimate-affecting properties of a forest regeneration area together with seedling characteristics was used to evaluate the accumulated risk of frost damage to Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) seedlings. Climate change in Sweden was simulated on the basis of the regional climate model RCA3. The daily average temperature, the driving factor for bud burst in the model, was adjusted using the difference between the mean of the climate model data for the years 1961-1990 and 2036-2065. The model was run for a highly frost prone, clear-cut site in which bare-rooted Norway spruce seedlings of mid-Swedish provenance were planted. Alternate runs were conducted with data for containerized seedlings and seedlings of Belarusian origin. The study showed that bud burst will occur at earlier dates throughout Sweden in the period 2036-2065 if the climate changes according to either of the climate scenarios examined, compared to the reference period 1961-1990. Furthermore, the risk of damage to Norway spruce seedlings as a result of frost events during summer will increase in southern Sweden and be unaffected or decrease in northern Sweden. The risk of frost damage was exacerbated in containerized seedlings, while the risk was lower for the seedlings of Belarusian provenance when compared with bare-rooted seedlings or seedlings of mid-Swedish origin

  4. Funding climate adaptation strategies with climate derivatives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Richard Little

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate adaptation requires large capital investments that could be provided not only by traditional sources like governments and banks, but also by derivatives markets. Such markets would allow two parties with different tolerances and expectations about climate risks to transact for their mutual benefit and, in so doing, finance climate adaptation. Here we calculate the price of a derivative called a European put option, based on future sea surface temperature (SST in Tasmania, Australia, with an 18 °C strike threshold. This price represents a quantifiable indicator of climate risk, and forms the basis for aquaculture industries exposed to the risk of higher SST to finance adaptation strategies through the sale of derivative contracts. Such contracts provide a real incentive to parties with different climate outlooks, or risk exposure to take a market assessment of climate change.

  5. FOREIGN CURRENCY RISK HEDGING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mihaela SUDACEVSCHI

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the traditional types of exchange rate risk faced by firms and some of principal methods of exchange risk management that a company which make foreign currency operations can use. Foreign currency risk management involves both assessing the risk faced by the companies and adopting measures for the risk hedging or reduce the damage it may cause. The damages result from the company’s unfavorable difference between the exchange rates of the currencies in which the transactions are made.

  6. Preterm newborns show slower repair of oxidative damage and paternal smoking associated DNA damage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vande Loock, Kim; Ciardelli, Roberta; Decordier, Ilse; Plas, Gina; Haumont, Dominique; Kirsch-Volders, Micheline

    2012-09-01

    Newborns have to cope with hypoxia during delivery and a sudden increase in oxygen at birth. Oxygen will partly be released as reactive oxygen species having the potential to cause damage to DNA and proteins. In utero, increase of most (non)-enzymatic antioxidants occurs during last weeks of gestation, making preterm neonates probably more sensitive to oxidative stress. Moreover, it has been hypothesized that oxidative stress might be the common etiological factor for certain neonatal diseases in preterm infants. The aim of this study was to assess background DNA damage; in vitro H(2)O(2) induced oxidative DNA damage and repair capacity (residual DNA damage) in peripheral blood mononucleated cells from 25 preterm newborns and their mothers. In addition, demographic data were taken into account and repair capacity of preterm was compared with full-term newborns. Multivariate linear regression analysis revealed that preterm infants from smoking fathers have higher background DNA damage levels than those from non-smoking fathers, emphasizing the risk of paternal smoking behaviour for the progeny. Significantly higher residual DNA damage found after 15-min repair in preterm children compared to their mothers and higher residual DNA damage after 2 h compared to full-term newborns suggest a slower DNA repair capacity in preterm children. In comparison with preterm infants born by caesarean delivery, preterm infants born by vaginal delivery do repair more slowly the in vitro induced oxidative DNA damage. Final impact of passive smoking and of the slower DNA repair activity of preterm infants need to be confirmed in a larger study population combining transgenerational genetic and/or epigenetic effects, antioxidant levels, genotypes, repair enzyme efficiency/levels and infant morbidity.

  7. An influence diagram for urban flood risk assessment through pluvial flood hazards under non-stationary conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Åström, Helena Lisa Alexandra; Friis Hansen, P.; Garrè, Luca

    2014-01-01

    Urban flooding introduces significant risk to society. Non-stationarity leads to increased uncertainty and this is challenging to include in actual decision-making. The primary objective of this study was to develop a risk assessment and decision support framework for pluvial urban flood risk under...... non-stationary conditions using an influence diagram (ID) which is a Bayesian network (BN) extended with decision and utility nodes. Non-stationarity is considered to be the influence of climate change where extreme precipitation patterns change over time. The overall risk is quantified in monetary...... terms expressed as expected annual damage. The network is dynamic in as much as it assesses risk at different points in time. The framework provides means for decision-makers to assess how different decisions on flood adaptation affect the risk now and in the future. The result from the ID was extended...

  8. Assessing hazard risk, cost of adaptation and traditional land use activities in the context of permafrost thaw in communities in Yukon and the Northwest Territories, Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benkert, B.; Perrin, A.; Calmels, F.

    2015-12-01

    Together with its partners, the Northern Climate ExChange (NCE, part of the Yukon Research Centre at Yukon College) has been mapping permafrost-related hazard risk in northern communities since 2010. By integrating geoscience and climate project data, we have developed a series of community-scale hazard risk maps. The maps depict hazard risk in stoplight colours for easy interpretation, and support community-based, future-focused adaptation planning. Communities, First Nations, consultants and local regulatory agencies have used the hazard risk maps to site small-scale infrastructure projects, guide land planning processes, and assess suitability of land development applications. However, we know that assessing risk is only one step in integrating the implications of permafrost degradation in societal responses to environmental change. To build on our permafrost hazard risk maps, we are integrating economic principles and traditional land use elements. To assess economic implications of adaptation to permafrost change, we are working with geotechnical engineers to identify adaptation options (e.g., modified building techniques, permafrost thaw mitigation approaches) that suit the risks captured by our existing hazard risk maps. We layer this with an economic analysis of the costs associated with identified adaptation options, providing end-users with a more comprehensive basis upon which to make decisions related to infrastructure. NCE researchers have also integrated traditional land use activities in assessments of permafrost thaw risk, in a project led by Jean Marie River First Nation in the Northwest Territories. Here, the implications of permafrost degradation on food security and land use priorities were assessed by layering key game and gathering areas on permafrost thaw vulnerability maps. Results indicated that close to one quarter of big and small game habitats, and close to twenty percent of key furbearer and gathering areas within the First Nation

  9. Adapting to climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arndt, Channing; Strzepek, Kenneth; Tarp, Finn

    2011-01-01

    Mozambique, like many African countries, is already highly susceptible to climate variability and extreme weather events. Climate change threatens to heighten this vulnerability. In order to evaluate potential impacts and adaptation options for Mozambique, we develop an integrated modeling...... framework that translates atmospheric changes from general circulation model projections into biophysical outcomes via detailed hydrologic, crop, hydropower and infrastructure models. These sector models simulate a historical baseline and four extreme climate change scenarios. Sector results are then passed...... down to a dynamic computable general equilibrium model, which is used to estimate economy-wide impacts on national welfare, as well as the total cost of damages caused by climate change. Potential damages without changes in policy are significant; our discounted estimates range from US2.3 to US2.3toUS7...

  10. Towards Improved Linkage of Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation in Health: A Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banwell, Nicola; Rutherford, Shannon; Mackey, Brendan; Chu, Cordia

    2018-01-01

    Climate change and climate-sensitive disasters significantly impact health. Linking Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) and Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) is essential for addressing these ever present, complex and increasing risks. Recent calls have been made to build these links in health. However, there is a need to clearly articulate why linking DRR and CCA is important in health. Furthermore, little is known about how DRR and CCA should be linked in health. By extensively examining relevant literature, this review presents the current state of knowledge of linking DRR and CCA in health. This includes the potential for maximising conceptual synergies such as building resilience, and reducing vulnerability and risk. Additionally, technical and operational synergies are identified to link DRR and CCA in health, including: policy, Early Warning Systems, vulnerability and risk assessment, health systems strengthening, infrastructure resilience, disaster preparedness and response, and health impact pathways. Public health actors have a central role in building these links due to their expertise, work functions, and experience in addressing complex health risks. The review concludes with recommendations for future research, including how to better link DRR and CCA in health; and the opportunities, challenges and enablers to build and sustain these links. PMID:29670057

  11. The municipalities of the Northwest region of the Czech Republic adapt to climate change: overview of barriers and challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emmer, Adam; Krkoška Lorencová, Eliška; Vačkář, David

    2017-04-01

    The municipalities of the Czech Republic have been facing negative impacts of changing climate in the past decades - especially floods (1997, 2002, 2010, 2013), droughts and heat waves (2013, 2015), claiming lives, material damages and economic losses up to several % of GDP. Reflecting these events, climate change adaptation should represent major issue in strategical planning on all administrative levels, which is actually not fully met nowadays. Sectoral National Adaptation Strategy (NAS) was approved by the Government of the Czech Republic in autumn 2015 and the implementation action plan is currently being approved. Adaptation strategies on lower administrative level (adaptation strategies of individual municipalities) are, however, still quite rare. In this contribution, we analyse barriers and challenges for: (i) the development of climate change adaptation strategies on administrative level of individual municipalities in the Northwest region, Czech Republic; and (ii) implementation of adaptation measures into the decision-making processes. Based on participatory seminars with key stakeholders organised in pilot municipalities, it was shown that municipalities are (at least partly) able to cope with existing risks such as floods, but are not well-prepared for expected regionally "new" risks such as long lasting heat waves, insufficient water retention and flash floods. Linking the goals of adaptation strategy with urban planning seems to be challenging task but also potentially powerfull tool to implement specific adaptation measures. It emerged, that complicated ownership relations often cause obstacles for implementation of adaptation measures, highlighting the potential of stimulation and motivation tools from the side of the municipality. On the other hand, it was also shown that despite experiencing its negative impacts, climate change is often neglected or percepted as a marginal issue by some municipalities and developing adaptation strategy is

  12. Dental Students' Perceptions of Risk Factors for Musculoskeletal Disorders: Adapting the Job Factors Questionnaire for Dentistry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Presoto, Cristina D; Wajngarten, Danielle; Domingos, Patrícia A S; Campos, Juliana A D B; Garcia, Patrícia P N S

    2018-01-01

    The aims of this study were to adapt the Job Factors Questionnaire to the field of dentistry, evaluate its psychometric properties, evaluate dental students' perceptions of work/study risk factors for musculoskeletal disorders, and determine the influence of gender and academic level on those perceptions. All 580 students enrolled in two Brazilian dental schools in 2015 were invited to participate in the study. A three-factor structure (Repetitiveness, Work Posture, and External Factors) was tested through confirmatory factor analysis. Convergent validity was estimated using the average variance extracted (AVE), discriminant validity was based on the correlational analysis of the factors, and reliability was assessed. A causal model was created using structural equation modeling to evaluate the influence of gender and academic level on students' perceptions. A total of 480 students completed the questionnaire for an 83% response rate. The responding students' average age was 21.6 years (SD=2.98), and 74.8% were women. Higher scores were observed on the Work Posture factor items. The refined model presented proper fit to the studied sample. Convergent validity was compromised only for External Factors (AVE=0.47), and discriminant validity was compromised for Work Posture and External Factors (r 2 =0.69). Reliability was adequate. Academic level did not have a significant impact on the factors, but the women students exhibited greater perception. Overall, the adaptation resulted in a useful instrument for assessing perceptions of risk factors for musculoskeletal disorders. Gender was found to significantly influence all three factors, with women showing greater perception of the risk factors.

  13. Transcultural adaptation of the Johns Hopkins Fall Risk Assessment Tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinez, Maria Carmen; Iwamoto, Viviane Ernesto; Latorre, Maria do Rosário Dias de Oliveira; Noronha, Adriana Moreira; Oliveira, Ana Paula de Sousa; Cardoso, Carlos Eduardo Alves; Marques, Ifigenia Augusta Braga; Vendramim, Patrícia; Lopes, Paula Cristina; Sant'Ana, Thais Helena Saes de

    2016-08-29

    to perform the transcultural adaptation and content validity analysis of the Johns Hopkins Fall Risk Assessment Tool to assess both fall risk and fall-related injury risk for hospitalized elderly in Brazil. the transcultural adaptation consisted of translating the scale to Portuguese (Brazil), back-translating it into its language of origin, establishing a consensus version, and having an expert committee verify its transcultural equivalence. Content assessment was conducted by a committee of judges, ending with the calculation of the items and scales' content validity index. Nurses tested the tool. the scale's translated version went through two evaluation rounds by the judges, based on which, the items with unsatisfactory performance were changed. The content validity index for the items was ≥80.0% and the global index 97.1%. The experimental application showed the scale is user-friendly. the scale presents valid content for the assessment of fall risk and risk of fall-related injuries and is easy to use, with the potential to contribute to the proper identification of risks and the establishment of care actions. realizar a adaptação transcultural para uso no Brasil e a avaliação da validade de conteúdo da Johns Hopkins Fall Risk Assessment Tool para avaliação de risco de quedas e de danos por quedas em pacientes adultos hospitalizados. adaptação transcultural consistiu na tradução da escala para a língua portuguesa (Brasil), retrotradução para a língua de origem, versão de consenso e análise da equivalência transcultural por um comitê de especialistas. A avaliação do conteúdo foi realizada por meio de um comitê de juízes, finalizando com o cálculo do índice de validade de conteúdo dos itens e da escala. Foi realizada a aplicação experimental do instrumento por enfermeiros. a versão traduzida da escala passou por duas rodadas de avaliação pelos juízes, a partir das quais os itens com desempenho insatisfatório foram modificados

  14. Adaptation benefits and costs. Measurement and policy issues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Callaway, J.M.

    2003-01-01

    This paper has three main objectives. The first to comment on the way in which adaptation to climate change is treated in the lead paper prepared for this workshop by Smith and Hitz (2002) and to summarise what the author sees as the main technical issues in evaluating the contribution of adaptation to avoiding climate change damages. The second is to show how these issues can be incorporated into a conceptual framework for characterizing adaptation in regional and multi-regional sectoral assessments of climate. The final objective is to show how this framework might be operationalised using a hypothetical example from a river basin

  15. Moisture damage and asthma: a birth cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karvonen, Anne M; Hyvärinen, Anne; Korppi, Matti; Haverinen-Shaughnessy, Ulla; Renz, Harald; Pfefferle, Petra I; Remes, Sami; Genuneit, Jon; Pekkanen, Juha

    2015-03-01

    Excess moisture and visible mold are associated with increased risk of asthma. Only a few studies have performed detailed home visits to characterize the extent and location of moisture damage and mold growth. Structured home inspections were performed in a birth cohort study when the children were 5 months old (on average). Children (N = 398) were followed up to the age of 6 years. Specific immunoglobulin E concentrations were determined at 6 years. Moisture damage and mold at an early age in the child's main living areas (but not in bathrooms or other interior spaces) were associated with the risk of developing physician-diagnosed asthma ever, persistent asthma, and respiratory symptoms during the first 6 years. Associations with asthma ever were strongest for moisture damage with visible mold in the child's bedroom (adjusted odds ratio: 4.82 [95% confidence interval: 1.29-18.02]) and in the living room (adjusted odds ratio: 7.51 [95% confidence interval: 1.49-37.83]). Associations with asthma ever were stronger in the earlier part of the follow-up and among atopic children. No consistent associations were found between moisture damage with or without visible mold and atopic sensitization. Moisture damage and mold in early infancy in the child's main living areas were associated with asthma development. Atopic children may be more susceptible to the effects of moisture damage and mold. Copyright © 2015 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

  16. Plasma membrane disruption: repair, prevention, adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    McNeil, Paul L.; Steinhardt, Richard A.

    2003-01-01

    Many metazoan cells inhabit mechanically stressful environments and, consequently, their plasma membranes are frequently disrupted. Survival requires that the cell rapidly repair or reseal the disruption. Rapid resealing is an active and complex structural modification that employs endomembrane as its primary building block, and cytoskeletal and membrane fusion proteins as its catalysts. Endomembrane is delivered to the damaged plasma membrane through exocytosis, a ubiquitous Ca2+-triggered response to disruption. Tissue and cell level architecture prevent disruptions from occurring, either by shielding cells from damaging levels of force, or, when this is not possible, by promoting safe force transmission through the plasma membrane via protein-based cables and linkages. Prevention of disruption also can be a dynamic cell or tissue level adaptation triggered when a damaging level of mechanical stress is imposed. Disease results from failure of either the preventive or resealing mechanisms.

  17. The United States should forego a damage-limitation capability against China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glaser, Charles L.

    2017-11-01

    Bottom Lines • THE KEY STRATEGIC NUCLEAR CHOICE. Whether to attempt to preserve its damage-limitation capability against China is the key strategic nuclear choice facing the United States. The answer is much less clear-cut than when the United States faced the Soviet Union during the Cold War. • FEASIBILITY OF DAMAGE LIMITATION. Although technology has advanced significantly over the past three decades, future military competition between the U.S. and Chinese forces will favor large-scale nuclear retaliation over significant damage limitation. • BENEFITS AND RISKS OF A DAMAGE-LIMITATION CAPABILITY. The benefits provided by a modest damage-limitation capability would be small, because the United States can meet its most important regional deterrent requirements without one. In comparison, the risks, which include an increased probability of accidental and unauthorized Chinese attacks, as well as strained U.S.—China relations, would be large. • FOREGO DAMAGE LIMITATION. These twin findings—the poor prospects for prevailing in the military competition, and the small benefits and likely overall decrease in U.S. security—call for a U.S. policy that foregoes efforts to preserve or enhance its damage-limitation capability.

  18. Integrated numerical modeling of a landslide early warning system in a context of adaptation to future climatic pressures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khabarov, Nikolay; Huggel, Christian; Obersteiner, Michael; Ramírez, Juan Manuel

    2010-05-01

    Mountain regions are typically characterized by rugged terrain which is susceptible to different types of landslides during high-intensity precipitation. Landslides account for billions of dollars of damage and many casualties, and are expected to increase in frequency in the future due to a projected increase of precipitation intensity. Early warning systems (EWS) are thought to be a primary tool for related disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation to extreme climatic events and hydro-meteorological hazards, including landslides. An EWS for hazards such as landslides consist of different components, including environmental monitoring instruments (e.g. rainfall or flow sensors), physical or empirical process models to support decision-making (warnings, evacuation), data and voice communication, organization and logistics-related procedures, and population response. Considering this broad range, EWS are highly complex systems, and it is therefore difficult to understand the effect of the different components and changing conditions on the overall performance, ultimately being expressed as human lives saved or structural damage reduced. In this contribution we present a further development of our approach to assess a landslide EWS in an integral way, both at the system and component level. We utilize a numerical model using 6 hour rainfall data as basic input. A threshold function based on a rainfall-intensity/duration relation was applied as a decision criterion for evacuation. Damage to infrastructure and human lives was defined as a linear function of landslide magnitude, with the magnitude modelled using a power function of landslide frequency. Correct evacuation was assessed with a ‘true' reference rainfall dataset versus a dataset of artificially reduced quality imitating the observation system component. Performance of the EWS using these rainfall datasets was expressed in monetary terms (i.e. damage related to false and correct evacuation). We

  19. Coordinating ecological risk assessment with natural resource damage assessment: A panel discussion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanders, Brenda; Ammann, Mike; Hoff, Rebecca; Huston, Mark; Jenkins, Kenneth; Palagyi, Tony; Pelto, Karen; Rettig, Todd; Wagner, Anne

    2016-10-01

    Contaminated sites in the United States undergo remediation and restoration through regulatory programs that lead the 2 processes through independent but often parallel pathways with different objectives. The objective of remediation is to reduce risk to human health and the environment, whereas that of restoration is to restore injured resources and compensate the public for lost use of the services that natural resources provide. More complex sites, such as those associated with large river systems and urban waterways, have resulted in increasingly larger-scale ecological risk assessments (ERAs) and natural resource damage assessments (NRDAs) that take many years and involve diverse practitioners including scientists, economists, and engineers. Substantial levels of effort are now frequently required, creating a need for more efficient and cost-effective approaches to data collection, analyses, and assessments. Because there are commonalities in the data needs between ERAs and NRDAs, coordination of the design and implementation of site-specific studies that meet the needs of both programs could result in increased efficiency and lower costs. The Association for Environmental Health and Sciences Foundation convened a panel of environmental practitioners from industry, consulting, and regulatory bodies to examine the benefits and challenges associated with coordinating ERA and NRDA activities in the context of a broad range of regulatory programs. This brief communication presents the opinions and conclusions of the panelists on these issues and reports 2 case studies for which coordinated ERA and NRDA activities produced a positive outcome. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2016;12:616-621. © 2015 SETAC. © 2015 SETAC.

  20. Genetic doping and health damages.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fallahi, Aa; Ravasi, Aa; Farhud, Dd

    2011-01-01

    Use of genetic doping or gene transfer technology will be the newest and the lethal method of doping in future and have some unpleasant consequences for sports, athletes, and outcomes of competitions. The World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA) defines genetic doping as "the non-therapeutic use of genes, genetic elements, and/or cells that have the capacity to enhance athletic performance ". The purpose of this review is to consider genetic doping, health damages and risks of new genes if delivered in athletes. This review, which is carried out by reviewing relevant publications, is primarily based on the journals available in GOOGLE, ELSEVIER, PUBMED in fields of genetic technology, and health using a combination of keywords (e.g., genetic doping, genes, exercise, performance, athletes) until July 2010. There are several genes related to sport performance and if they are used, they will have health risks and sever damages such as cancer, autoimmunization, and heart attack.

  1. Review of the flood risk management system in Germany after the major flood in 2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Annegret H. Thieken

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Widespread flooding in June 2013 caused damage costs of €6 to 8 billion in Germany, and awoke many memories of the floods in August 2002, which resulted in total damage of €11.6 billion and hence was the most expensive natural hazard event in Germany up to now. The event of 2002 does, however, also mark a reorientation toward an integrated flood risk management system in Germany. Therefore, the flood of 2013 offered the opportunity to review how the measures that politics, administration, and civil society have implemented since 2002 helped to cope with the flood and what still needs to be done to achieve effective and more integrated flood risk management. The review highlights considerable improvements on many levels, in particular (1 an increased consideration of flood hazards in spatial planning and urban development, (2 comprehensive property-level mitigation and preparedness measures, (3 more effective flood warnings and improved coordination of disaster response, and (4 a more targeted maintenance of flood defense systems. In 2013, this led to more effective flood management and to a reduction of damage. Nevertheless, important aspects remain unclear and need to be clarified. This particularly holds for balanced and coordinated strategies for reducing and overcoming the impacts of flooding in large catchments, cross-border and interdisciplinary cooperation, the role of the general public in the different phases of flood risk management, as well as a transparent risk transfer system. Recurring flood events reveal that flood risk management is a continuous task. Hence, risk drivers, such as climate change, land-use changes, economic developments, or demographic change and the resultant risks must be investigated at regular intervals, and risk reduction strategies and processes must be reassessed as well as adapted and implemented in a dialogue with all stakeholders.

  2. Adaptation, translation and reliability of the Australian 'Juniors Enjoying Cricket Safely' injury risk perception questionnaire for Sri Lanka.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gamage, Prasanna J; Fortington, Lauren V; Finch, Caroline F

    2018-01-01

    Cricket is a very popular sport in Sri Lanka. In this setting there has been limited research; specifically, there is little knowledge of cricket injuries. To support future research possibilities, the aim of this study was to cross-culturally adapt, translate and test the reliability of an Australian-developed questionnaire for the Sri Lankan context. The Australian 'Juniors Enjoying Cricket Safely' (JECS-Aus) injury risk perception questionnaire was cross-culturally adapted to suit the Sri Lankan context and subsequently translated into the two main languages (Sinhala and Tamil) based on standard forward-back translation. The translated questionnaires were examined for content validity by two language schoolteachers. The questionnaires were completed twice, 2 weeks apart, by two groups of school cricketers (males) aged 11-15 years (Sinhala (n=24), Tamil (n=30)) to assess reliability. Test-retest scores were evaluated for agreement. Where responses were statistics were calculated. Questions with moderate-to-poor test-retest reliability (κAus questionnaire for use in a different population, providing an outcome measure for assessing injury risk perceptions in Sri Lankan junior cricketers.

  3. Periodontal tissue damage in smokers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hutojo Djajakusuma

    2006-09-01

    Full Text Available Dental plaque is the primary etiological factor in periodontal diseases. However, there are many factors that can modify how an individual periodontal tissue will respond to the accumulation of dental plaque. Among such risk factors, there is increasing evidence that smoking tobacco products alters the expression and rate of progression of periodontal diseases. The aim of this study was to find out the loss of periodontal tissue adhesion in smokers by measuring pocket depth using probe, and by measuring alveolar bone damage using Bone Loss Score (BLS radiographic methods on teeth 12, 11, 21, 22, 32, 31, 41, 42. Based on T Test statistical analysis, there were significant differences in pocket depth damage of alveolar bone in smokers and non smokers. In conclusion there were increasing pocket depth and alveolar bone damage in smokers.

  4. IDRC at the Adaptation Futures Conference | IDRC - International ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    2018-06-07

    Jun 7, 2018 ... Mapping the frontiers of adaptation research in the Global South: Identifying ... from climate insurance and risk pooling research in Africa and Asia ... and private investment in adaptation and mainstreaming adaptation finance.

  5. Ligamentous Injuries and the Risk of Associated Tissue Damage in Acute Ankle Sprains in Athletes: A Cross-sectional MRI Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roemer, Frank W; Jomaah, Nabil; Niu, Jingbo; Almusa, Emad; Roger, Bernard; D'Hooghe, Pieter; Geertsema, Celeste; Tol, Johannes L; Khan, Karim; Guermazi, Ali

    2014-07-01

    Ankle joint injuries are extremely common sports injuries, with the anterior talofibular ligament involved in the majority of ankle sprains. There have been only a few large magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) studies on associated structural injuries after ankle sprains. To describe the injury pattern in athletes who were referred to MRI for the assessment of an acute ankle sprain and to assess the risk of associated traumatic tissue damage including lateral and syndesmotic ligament involvement. Cross-sectional study; Level of evidence, 3. A total of 261 ankle MRI scans of athletes with acute ankle sprains were evaluated for: lateral and syndesmotic ligament injury; concomitant injuries to the deltoid and spring ligaments and sinus tarsi; peroneal, flexor, and extensor retinacula and tendons; traumatic and nontraumatic osteochondral and osseous changes; and joint effusion. Patients were on average 22.5 years old, and the average time from injury to MRI was 5.7 days. Six exclusive injury patterns were defined based on lateral and syndesmotic ligament involvement. The risk for associated injuries was assessed by logistic regression using ankles with no or only low-grade lateral ligament injuries and no syndesmotic ligament damage as the reference. With regard to the injury pattern, there were 103 ankles (39.5%) with complete anterior talofibular ligament disruption and no syndesmotic injury, and 53 ankles (20.3%) had a syndesmotic injury with or without lateral ligament damage. Acute osteochondral lesions of the lateral talar dome were seen in 20 ankles (7.7%). The percentage of chronic lateral osteochondral lesions was 1.1%. The risk for talar bone contusions increased more than 3-fold for ankles with complete lateral ligament ruptures (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 3.43; 95% CI, 1.72-6.85) but not for ankles with syndesmotic involvement. The risk for associated deltoid ligament injuries increased for ankles with complete lateral ligament injuries (aOR, 4.04; 95% CI, 1

  6. Integrating community based disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation: examples from the Pacific

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Gero

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available It is acknowledged by academics and development practitioners alike that many common strategies addressing community based disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation duplicate each other. Thus, there is a strong push to integrate the two fields to enhance aid effectiveness and reduce confusion for communities. Examples of community based disaster risk reduction (DRR and climate change adaptation (CCA projects are presented to highlight some of the ways these issues are tackled in the Pacific. Various approaches are employed but all aim to reduce the vulnerability and enhance the resilience of local communities to the impacts of climate change and disasters. By focusing on three case studies, elements of best practice are drawn out to illustrate how DRR and CCA can be integrated for enhanced aid effectiveness, and also look at ways in which these two often overlapping fields can be better coordinated in ongoing and future projects. Projects that address vulnerability holistically, and target the overall needs and capacity of the community are found to be effective in enhancing the resilience of communities. By strategically developing a multi-stakeholder and multi-sector approach, community projects are likely to encapsulate a range of experience and skills that will benefit the community. Furthermore, by incorporating local knowledge, communities are far more likely to be engaged and actively participate in the project. From selected case studies, commonly occurring best practice methods to integrate DRR and CCA are identified and discussed and recommendations on how to overcome the common challenges also presented.

  7. Risk and Safety in Physical Education for Children with Disabilities: Adapted Physical Education Textbook Review and Primer for Teachers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hughes, Patricia Paulsen; Ramos, Nilo; Mwarumba, Njoki

    2017-01-01

    Purpose: Much of the information physical educators learn about children with disabilities occurs in an introduction to adapted physical education course. Because disabilities often have concomitant medical conditions, it is critical that PE teachers are knowledgeable about risks and safety measures for children with special needs. The purpose of…

  8. PoliRisposta: Overcoming present limits of flood damage data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molinari, Daniela; Mazuran, Mirjana; Arias, Carolina; Minucci, Guido; Atun, Funda; Ardagna, Danilo

    2014-05-01

    Already in the Fifties, US researchers identified the main weakness of flood records in the inadequacy of flood damage data. The recent seminar "Flood damage survey and assessment: which priorities for future research and practice?", held at Politecnico di Milano on 24-25 January 2012, highlighted that poor and insufficient flood loss data is still a matter of concern. In detail, participants concluded that the lack of damage data and of innovative approaches for their analysis (e.g. multivariate approaches, data mining) is one of the main causes of the shortcomings of present risk assessment tools; among them: the uncertainty of flood risk predictions and the limited capacity of estimating damages apart from the direct ones to residential sector (i.e. indirect/intangible damages). On the other hand, flood damage data collected in the aftermath of a disastrous event can support a variety of actions besides the validation/definition of damage models: the identification of priorities for intervention during emergencies, the creation of complete event scenarios on the bases of which understating the fragilities of the flooded areas as well as defining compensation schemes. However, few efforts have been addressed so far on the improvement of the way in which data are presently collected and stored. The aim of this presentation is to discuss first results of Poli-RISPOSTA (stRumentI per la protezione civile a Supporto delle POpolazioni nel poST Alluvione), a research project founded by Politecnico di Milano which is just intended to develop tools and procedures for the collection and storage of high quality, consistent and reliable flood damage data. In detail, specific objectives of Poli-RISPOSTA are: - Develop an operational procedure for collecting, storing and analyzing all damage data, in the aftermath of flood event, including: damage to infrastructures and public facilities, damage suffered by citizens and their dwellings and goods, and to economic activities

  9. Poverty and Climate Change. Part 1. Reducing the Vulnerability of the Poor through Adaptation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abeygunawardena, P. [Asian Development Bank ADB, Tokyo (Japan); Vyas, Y. [African Development Bank AfDB, Abidjan (Cote d' Ivoire); Knill, P. [Federal German Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development BMZ, Bonn (Germany); Foy, T.; Harrold, M.; Steele, P.; Tanner, T. [Department for International Developmen DFID, London (United Kingdom); Hirsch, D.; Oosterman, M.; Rooimans, J. [Development Cooperation DGIS, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Den Haag (Netherlands); Debois, M.; Lamin, M. [Directorate-General for Development, European Commission EC, Brussels (Belgium); Liptow, H.; Mausolf, E.; Verheyen, R. [Deutsche Gesellschaft fuer Technische Zusammenarbeit GTZ, Eschborn (Germany); Agrawala, S.; Caspary, G.; Paris, R. [Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development OECD, Paris (France); Kashyap, A. [United Nations Development Programme UNDP, New York, NY (United States); Sharma, R. [United Nations Environment Programme UNEP, Nairobi (Kenya); Mathur, A.; Sharma, M.; Sperling, F. [World Bank, Washington, DC (United States)

    2003-07-01

    Despite international efforts, poverty has become more widespread in many countries in the last decade, making poverty reduction the core challenge for development in the 21st century. In the Millennium Declaration, 189 nations have resolved to halve extreme poverty by 2015 and all agencies involved in this paper are committed to contribute to this aim. However, climate change is a serious risk to poverty reduction and threatens to undo decades of development efforts. This paper focuses on the impacts of climate change on poverty reduction efforts in the context of sustaining progress towards the Millennium Development Goals and beyond. It discusses ways of mainstreaming and integrating adaptation to climate change into poverty reduction and sustainable development efforts. The chief messages emerging from this paper are: Climate change is happening and will increasingly affect the poor; and Adaptation is necessary and there is a need to integrate responses to climate change and adaptation measures into strategies for poverty reduction to ensure sustainable development. This decision to focus on adaptation is deliberate and is taken with the understanding that adaptation cannot replace mitigation efforts. The magnitude and rate of climate change will strongly depend on efforts to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere. The higher the concentrations of GHGs, the higher the likelihood of irreversible and grave damage to human and biological systems. Therefore, adaptation is only one part of the solution. Mitigation of climate change by limiting greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere is the indispensable other part.

  10. Climate Change Perceptions of NY State Farmers: The Role of Risk Perceptions and Adaptive Capacity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takahashi, Bruno; Burnham, Morey; Terracina-Hartman, Carol; Sopchak, Amanda R.; Selfa, Theresa

    2016-12-01

    Climate change is expected to severely impact agricultural practices in many important food-producing regions, including the Northeast United States. Changing climate conditions, such as increases in the amount of rainfall, will require farmers to adapt. Yet, little is known with regard to farmers' perceptions and understandings about climate change, especially in the industrialized country context. This paper aims at overcoming this research limitation, as well as determining the existing contextual, cognitive, and psychological barriers that can prevent adoption of sustainable practices of farmers in New York State. The study is framed within the adaptive capacity and risk perception literature, and is based on a qualitative analysis of in-depth interviews with farmers in 21 farms in two counties in Central New York. The results reveal diverging views about the long-term consequences of climate change. Results also reveal that past experience remains as the most important source of information that influences beliefs and perceptions about climate change, confirming previous research.

  11. Outcomes of Risk-Adapted Fractionated Stereotactic Radiotherapy for Stage I Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lagerwaard, Frank J.; Haasbeek, Cornelis J.A.; Smit, Egbert F.; Slotman, Ben J.; Senan, S.

    2008-01-01

    Purpose: High local control rates can be achieved using stereotactic radiotherapy in Stage I non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC), but reports have suggested that toxicity may be of concern. We evaluated early clinical outcomes of 'risk-adapted' fractionation schemes in patients treated in a single institution. Methods and Materials: Of 206 patients with Stage I NSCLC, 81% were unfit to undergo surgery and the rest refused surgery. Pathologic confirmation of malignancy was obtained in 31% of patients. All other patients had new or growing 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography positive lesions with radiologic characteristics of malignancy. Planning four-dimensional computed tomography scans were performed and fractionation schemes used (3 x 20 Gy, 5 x 12 Gy, and 8 x 7.5 Gy) were determined by T stage and risk of normal tissue toxicity. Results: Median overall survival was 34 months, with 1- and 2-year survivals of 81% and 64%, respectively. Disease-free survival (DFS) at 1 and 2 years was 83% and 68%, respectively, and DFS correlated with T stage (p = 0.002). Local failure was observed in 7 patients (3%). The crude regional failure rate was 9%; isolated regional recurrence was observed in 4%. The distant progression-free survival at 1 and 2 years was 85% and 77%, respectively. SRT was well tolerated and severe late toxicity was observed in less than 3% of patients. Conclusions: SRT is well tolerated in patients with extensive comorbidity with high local control rates and minimal toxicity. Early outcomes are not inferior to those reported for conventional radiotherapy. In view of patient convenience, such risk-adapted SRT schedules should be considered treatment of choice in patients presenting with medically inoperable Stage I NSCLC

  12. NEWBORNS OF HIGH RISK GROUPS AND ELECTROPHYSIOLOGICAL CARDIAC ACTIVITY DURING THE PERIOD OF EARLY ADAPTATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. S. Tumaeva

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Aim: to study characteristics of electrophysiological cardiac activity in children of risk groups and to assess possibilities of Holter-electrocardiography (H-ECG in revealing of cardiac dysfunction during the period of early adaptation. Patients and methods: 250 newborns were examined. The main group consisted of 200 children with cerebral ischemia (CI. This group was divided into 2 subgroups: 100 full-term and 100 premature (at various gestation age infants. Control group contained 50 children born at 38–40th weeks of gestation with physiological course of pregnancy and delivery, APGAR score of 8–9 points. Complex examination included H-ECG according the standard technic with evaluation of the hearth rate (HR during sleep and wakefulness; HRmin, HRmax; arrhythmias, conductivity disorders, duration of the intervals; rhythm variability. Results: according to the ECG children with CI, especially premature ones, and children delivered via Cesarean section more often had ST-T disturbances, arrhythmias (sinus tachycardia, less often — sinus bradycardia and conductivity disorders, Q-Tc prolongation. H-EGC revealed decrease of sleep HR, HRmin and HRmax in children with CI especially in delivered via Cesarean section. The most common arrhythmia was supraventricular extrasystole.  Pauses in rhythms and variability were the highest in premature children delivered via Cesarean section. Conclusions: hypoxia/ischemia is a trigger for development of cardiovascular dysfuncion in newborns. Premature and children delivered via Cesarean section form a group of high risk. H-ECG widens possibilities of revealing of symptoms of cardiac dysfunction (disturbances at the basal level of functioning, of adaptation resources of the sinus node, electric instability of the myocardium and heart rate variability in children of risk group for development of cardiovascular disorders. 

  13. Responding to climate risks in South Florida: New tools for adaptive water management collaboration between researchers and practitioners.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Treuer, G.

    2017-12-01

    South Florida's vulnerability to sea level rise has brought attention and research funding to the region. Scientists have demonstrated that existing flood control, water supply, and water quality challenges will be made more difficult by sea level rise. Investing in adaptation and efficiency can help reduce the region's exposure to climate change threats. However, local governments and agencies struggle to act. Suggestions for further collaboration between practitioners and researchers are presented, drawing from the results of research on homeowner risk perception, water supply management, and sea level rise adaptive stormwater investments in the Miami area. Choice Flow, an online platform for creating immersive simulations that track decision making and information gathering, was used to help 348 South Florida homeowners experience 35 years (18 inches) of sea level rise in 20 minutes. It found that there is a window of opportunity for local governments to act. Over 70% of homeowners were willing to support higher taxes to pay for adaptation investments now and in the future. And while most were not worried enough about sea level rise now they became increasingly willing to move out of the region as sea levels rose. Simulations like this could enable cities like Miami Beach pre-test new technologies and policies, e.g. new building standards or stormwater technology, which help reduce flood risk but often inspire opposition from stakeholders who perceive them as a threat. Additionally, academic researchers can collaborate with practitioners to understand how policy transitions, necessary for adaptive water management, occur over time and across jurisdictions. A data-narrative of the recent shift towards sustainable water supply in Miami-Dade County, developed in consultation with utility staff, is presented as an example. It provides a basis for comparison with other communities and a tool for entrepreneurial practitioners to advocate for conservation as a means of

  14. Risk assessment in the field of energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berg, M.; Erdmann, G.; Leist, A.; Renn, O.; Schaber, P.; Scheringer, M.; Seiler, H.; Wiedenmann, R.

    1995-01-01

    The following subjects are dealt with in this book: - ethical thoughts on damage, risks and uncertainty, - risk evaluation from the point of view of sociology, - risk evaluation in the economy, - risk evaluation in law, - environmental damage due to the operation of energy generating systems. figs., tabs., refs

  15. Genetic damage from low-level and natural background radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oftedal, P.

    1988-01-01

    Relevant predictions that have been made of possible low level biological effects on man are reviewed, and the estimate of genetic damage is discussed. It is concluded that in spite of a number of attempts, no clear-cut case of effects in human populations of radiation at natural levels has been demonstrated. The stability of genetic material is dynamic, with damage, repair and selection running as continuous processes. Genetic materials are well protected and are conservative in the extreme, not least because evolution by genetic adaptation is an expensive process: Substitution of one allele A 1 by another A 2 means the death of the whole A 1 population

  16. DNA Damage, Mutagenesis and Cancer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ashis K. Basu

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available A large number of chemicals and several physical agents, such as UV light and γ-radiation, have been associated with the etiology of human cancer. Generation of DNA damage (also known as DNA adducts or lesions induced by these agents is an important first step in the process of carcinogenesis. Evolutionary processes gave rise to DNA repair tools that are efficient in repairing damaged DNA; yet replication of damaged DNA may take place prior to repair, particularly when they are induced at a high frequency. Damaged DNA replication may lead to gene mutations, which in turn may give rise to altered proteins. Mutations in an oncogene, a tumor-suppressor gene, or a gene that controls the cell cycle can generate a clonal cell population with a distinct advantage in proliferation. Many such events, broadly divided into the stages of initiation, promotion, and progression, which may occur over a long period of time and transpire in the context of chronic exposure to carcinogens, can lead to the induction of human cancer. This is exemplified in the long-term use of tobacco being responsible for an increased risk of lung cancer. This mini-review attempts to summarize this wide area that centers on DNA damage as it relates to the development of human cancer.

  17. Assessment of adaptation strategies to flooding: A comparative study between informal settlements of Keko Machungwa in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania and Sangkrah in Surakarta, Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tumpale Sakijege

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available A large number of informal settlements in developing countries are located in high risk areas(low-lying lands and on river banks. This situation is caused by poverty and the inabilityof authorities to supply planned plots for building to meet demands of the growing urbanpopulations. Informal settlements have, in turn, triggered disaster risks, flooding being just oneof them. As a way of reducing impacts of flooding, residents in informal settlements have resortedto the use of structural adaptation strategies. Despite these efforts, the vulnerability of peopleand properties in informal settlements is increasing. This article aimed to provide an answer as towhy this is the case, by assessing and comparing the technical suitability of adaptation strategiesto flooding in the informal settlements of Sangkrah and Keko Machungwa and recommendingmeasures for improvement. Household interviews, physical observation (visual inspections ofsigns of damage and deterioration, measurements of height of physical adaptation strategies,mapping, photographing, and in-depth interviews were the key methods employed. Generally,in both cases, it was determined that flood mitigation and risk minimisation measures throughstructural adaptation strategies were hardly achieved at the household level, as adaptationstrategies were constructed with little or no attention to acceptable technical considerations.However, when levels of compliance to technical considerations in the construction of houseswere compared between the two cases, they were found to be slightly higher in Sangkrah thanin Keko Machungwa. Residents in Sangkrah demonstrated a slight difference, especially in theuse of reinforced concrete (4.3% for constructing a building’s foundation, as well as in the useof ceramics (72.9% to construct the floor. In order to deliver technically suitable adaptationstrategies, efforts need to be directed toward: regulating and controlling the construction ofstructures for

  18. Multidsciplinary Approaches to Coastal Adaptation - Aplying Machine Learning Techniques to assess coastal risk in Latin America and The Caribbean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calil, J.

    2016-12-01

    The global population, currently at 7.3 billion, is increasing by nearly 230,000 people every day. As the world's population grows to an estimated 11.2 billion by 2100, the number of people living in low elevation areas, exposed to coastal hazards, is continuing to increase. In 2013, 22 million people were displaced by extreme weather events, with 37 events displacing at least 100,000 people each. Losses from natural disasters and disaster risk are determined by a complex interaction between physical hazards and the vulnerability of a society or social-ecological system, and its exposure to such hazards. Impacts from coastal hazards depend on the number of people, value of assets, and presence of critical resources in harm's way. Moreover, coastal risks are amplified by challenging socioeconomic dynamics, including ill-advised urban development, income inequality, and poverty level. Our results demonstrate that in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), more than half a million people live in areas where coastal hazards, exposure (of people, assets and ecosystems), and poverty converge, creating the ideal conditions for a perfect storm. In order to identify the population at greatest risk to coastal hazards in LAC, and in response to a growing demand for multidisciplinary coastal adaptation approaches, this study employs a combination of machine learning clustering techniques (K-Means and Self Organizing Maps), and a spatial index, to assess coastal risks on a comparative scale. Data for more than 13,000 coastal locations in LAC were collected and allocated into three categories: (1) Coastal Hazards (including storm surge, wave energy and El Niño); (2) Geographic Exposure (including population, agriculture, and ecosystems); and (3) Vulnerability (including income inequality, infant mortality rate and malnutrition). This study identified hotspots of coastal vulnerability, the key drivers of coastal risk at each geographic location. Our results provide important

  19. Sea-level rise risks to coastal cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholls, Robert J.

    2017-04-01

    Understanding the consequence of sea-level rise for coastal cities has long lead times and huge political implications. Civilisation has emerged and developed during a period of several thousand years during which in geological terms sea level has been unusually stable. We have now moved out of this period and the challenge will be to develop a long-term proactive assessment approach to manage this challenge. In 2005 there were 136 coastal cities with a population exceeding one million people and a collective population of 400 million people. All these coastal cities are threatened by flooding from the sea to varying degrees and these risks are increasing due to growing exposure (people and assets), rising sea levels due to climate change, and in some cities, significant coastal subsidence due to human agency (drainage and groundwater withdrawals from susceptible soils). In these cities we wish to avoid major flood events, with associated damage and potentially deaths and ultimately decline of the cities. Flood risks grow with sea-level rise as it raises extreme sea levels. As sea levels continue to rise, protection will have to be progressively upgraded. Even with this, the magnitude of losses when flood events do occur would increase as coastal cities expand, and water depths and hence unit damage increase with sea-level rise/subsidence. This makes it critical to also prepare for larger coastal flood disasters than we experience today and raises questions on the limits to adaptation. There is not an extensive literature or significant empirical information on the limits to adaptation in coastal cities. These limits are not predictable in a formal sense - while the rise in mean sea level raises the likelihood of a catastrophic flood, extreme events are what cause damage and trigger a response, be it abandonment, a defence upgrade or something else. There are several types of potential limits that could be categorised into three broad types: • Physical

  20. Kinetics of the early adaptive response and adaptation threshold dose

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mendiola C, M.T.; Morales R, P.

    2003-01-01

    The expression kinetics of the adaptive response (RA) in mouse leukocytes in vivo and the minimum dose of gamma radiation that induces it was determined. The mice were exposed 0.005 or 0.02 Gy of 137 Cs like adaptation and 1h later to the challenge dose (1.0 Gy), another group was only exposed at 1.0 Gy and the damage is evaluated in the DNA with the rehearsal it makes. The treatment with 0. 005 Gy didn't induce RA and 0. 02 Gy causes a similar effect to the one obtained with 0.01 Gy. The RA was show from an interval of 0.5 h being obtained the maximum expression with 5.0 h. The threshold dose to induce the RA is 0.01 Gy and in 5.0 h the biggest quantity in molecules is presented presumably that are related with the protection of the DNA. (Author)

  1. Radiation damage prediction system using damage function

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tanaka, Yoshihisa; Mori, Seiji

    1979-01-01

    The irradiation damage analysis system using a damage function was investigated. This irradiation damage analysis system consists of the following three processes, the unfolding of a damage function, the calculation of the neutron flux spectrum of the object of damage analysis and the estimation of irradiation effect of the object of damage analysis. The damage function is calculated by applying the SAND-2 code. The ANISN and DOT3, 5 codes are used to calculate neutron flux. The neutron radiation and the allowable time of reactor operation can be estimated based on these calculations of the damage function and neutron flux. The flow diagram of the process of analyzing irradiation damage by a damage function and the flow diagram of SAND-2 code are presented, and the analytical code for estimating damage, which is determined with a damage function and a neutron spectrum, is explained. The application of the irradiation damage analysis system using a damage function was carried out to the core support structure of a fast breeder reactor for the damage estimation and the uncertainty evaluation. The fundamental analytical conditions and the analytical model for this work are presented, then the irradiation data for SUS304, the initial estimated values of a damage function, the error analysis for a damage function and the analytical results are explained concerning the computation of a damage function for 10% total elongation. Concerning the damage estimation of FBR core support structure, the standard and lower limiting values of damage, the permissible neutron flux and the allowable years of reactor operation are presented and were evaluated. (Nakai, Y.)

  2. Combined Data with Particle Swarm Optimization for Structural Damage Detection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fei Kang

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a damage detection method based on combined data of static and modal tests using particle swarm optimization (PSO. To improve the performance of PSO, some immune properties such as selection, receptor editing, and vaccination are introduced into the basic PSO and an improved PSO algorithm is formed. Simulations on three benchmark functions show that the new algorithm performs better than PSO. The efficiency of the proposed damage detection method is tested on a clamped beam, and the results demonstrate that it is more efficient than PSO, differential evolution, and an adaptive real-parameter simulated annealing genetic algorithm.

  3. Regional and Household Adaptation Strategies to Climate Extremes: the Case Study of the Beava River Basin, the Czech Republic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duží, Barbora; Stojanov, Robert; Vikhrov, Dmytro

    2013-04-01

    We investigate regional and household adaptation strategies in the region affected by climate extremes, focusing on floods occurrence during past 15 years period. The main research question is: What is the overall state of adaptation measurements to climate extremes on the Bečva river basin? Target area is located along upper and middle part of the Bečva river basin in the east of the Czech Republic. The main theoretical concepts draw from differentiations between coping/adaptation strategies to climate extremes and theory of focusing event as a starter of changes in attention and agenda of problem solution. We apply mixed empirical research and case study approach. First we use qualitative research to serve as an initial entrance to the issue, to find out the perception of adaptation progress and preparedness to climate extremes on regional level. We conducted deep interviews (N=20) with relevant stakeholders. We proceed with quantitative research through the conducting face-to face questionnaires with household residents (N=305) in no, low and no risk area in relation to flood occurrence. We designed set of questions to find out relation among experiences with flood, the level of damages and applied emergency and adaptation measurements.

  4. Higher plants and UV-B radiation: balancing damage, repair and acclimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jansen, M.A.K.; Gaba, V.; Greenberg, B.M.

    1998-01-01

    Although UV-B is a minor component of sunlight, it has a disproportionately damaging effect on higher plants. Ultraviolet-sensitive targets include DNA, proteins and membranes, and these must be protected for normal growth and development. DNA repair and secondary metabolite accumulation during exposure to UV-B have been characterized in considerable detail, but little is known about the recovery of photosynthesis, induction of free-radical scavenging and morphogenic changes. A future challenge is to elucidate how UV-B-exposed plants balance damage, repair, acclimation and adaptation responses in a photobiologically dynamic environment. (author)

  5. The socio-economic dimension of flood risk assessment: insights of KULTURisk framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giupponi, Carlo; Gain, Animesh; Mojtahed, Vahid; Balbi, Stefano

    2013-04-01

    policy framework of climate change adaptation (CCA). Three main innovations are proposed with respect to the current state of the art: (1) to include the social capacities of reducing risk, (2) to go beyond the estimation direct tangible costs, and (3) to provide an operational solution for decision support to assess risks, impacts and the benefits of plausible risk reduction measures, compatible with both the DRR and the CCA literatures. As stated above, the proposed framework is the inclusion of social capacities (adaptive and coping capacities) in the process of translating risk into a comprehensive cost matrix considering not only direct tangible costs (damages), but also the three other components deriving from the combination of tangible/intangible and direct/indirect costs. The proposed KIRAF approach is thus expected to provide: 1) an operational basis for multidisciplinary integration; 2) a flexible reference to deal with heterogeneous case studies and potentially various types of hazards; and 3) a means to support the assessment of alternative risk prevention measures including consideration of social and cultural dimensions.

  6. Senescence, apoptosis or autophagy? When a damaged cell must decide its path--a mini-review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vicencio, José Miguel; Galluzzi, Lorenzo; Tajeddine, Nicolas; Ortiz, Carla; Criollo, Alfredo; Tasdemir, Ezgi; Morselli, Eugenia; Ben Younes, Amena; Maiuri, Maria Chiara; Lavandero, Sergio; Kroemer, Guido

    2008-01-01

    Many features of aging result from the incapacity of cells to adapt to stress conditions. When damage accumulates irreversibly, mitotic cells from renewable tissues rely on either of two mechanisms to avoid replication. They can permanently arrest the cell cycle (cellular senescence) or trigger cell death programs. Apoptosis (self-killing) is the best-described form of programmed cell death, but autophagy (self-eating), which is a lysosomal degradation pathway essential for homeostasis, reportedly contributes to cell death as well. Unlike mitotic cells, postmitotic cells like neurons or cardiomyocytes cannot become senescent since they are already terminally differentiated. The fate of these cells entirely depends on their ability to cope with stress. Autophagy then operates as a major homeostatic mechanism to eliminate damaged organelles, long-lived or aberrant proteins and superfluous portions of the cytoplasm. In this mini-review, we briefly summarize the molecular networks that allow damaged cells either to adapt to stress or to engage in programmed-cell-death pathways. (c) 2008 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  7. Prompt Proxy Mapping of Flood Damaged Rice Fields Using MODIS-Derived Indices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Youngjoo Kwak

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Flood mapping, particularly hazard and risk mapping, is an imperative process and a fundamental part of emergency response and risk management. This paper aims to produce a flood risk proxy map of damaged rice fields over the whole of Bangladesh, where monsoon river floods are dominant and frequent, affecting over 80% of the total population. This proxy risk map was developed to meet the request of the government on a national level. This study represents a rapid, straightforward methodology for estimating rice-crop damage in flood areas of Bangladesh during the large flood from July to September 2007, despite the lack of primary data. We improved a water detection algorithm to achieve a better discrimination capacity to discern flood areas by using a modified land surface water index (MLSWI. Then, rice fields were estimated utilizing a hybrid rice field map from land-cover classification and MODIS-derived indices, such as the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI and enhanced vegetation index (EVI. The results showed that the developed method is capable of providing instant, comprehensive, nationwide mapping of flood risks, such as rice field damage. The detected flood areas and damaged rice fields during the 2007 flood were verified by comparing them with the Advanced Land Observing Satellite (ALOS AVNIR-2 images (a 10 m spatial resolution and in situ field survey data with moderate agreement (K = 0.57.

  8. Global mortality consequences of climate change accounting for adaptation costs and benefits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rising, J. A.; Jina, A.; Carleton, T.; Hsiang, S. M.; Greenstone, M.

    2017-12-01

    Empirically-based and plausibly causal estimates of the damages of climate change are greatly needed to inform rapidly developing global and local climate policies. To accurately reflect the costs of climate change, it is essential to estimate how much populations will adapt to a changing climate, yet adaptation remains one of the least understood aspects of social responses to climate. In this paper, we develop and implement a novel methodology to estimate climate impacts on mortality rates. We assemble comprehensive sub-national panel data in 41 countries that account for 56% of the world's population, and combine them with high resolution daily climate data to flexibly estimate the causal effect of temperature on mortality. We find the impacts of temperature on mortality have a U-shaped response; both hot days and cold days cause excess mortality. However, this average response obscures substantial heterogeneity, as populations are differentially adapted to extreme temperatures. Our empirical model allows us to extrapolate response functions across the entire globe, as well as across time, using a range of economic, population, and climate change scenarios. We also develop a methodology to capture not only the benefits of adaptation, but also its costs. We combine these innovations to produce the first causal, micro-founded, global, empirically-derived climate damage function for human health. We project that by 2100, business-as-usual climate change is likely to incur mortality-only costs that amount to approximately 5% of global GDP for 5°C degrees of warming above pre-industrial levels. On average across model runs, we estimate that the upper bound on adaptation costs amounts to 55% of the total damages.

  9. Adaptive capacity and human cognition: the process of individual adaptation to climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grothmann, T. [Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam (Germany). Department of Global Change and Social Systems; Patt, A. [Boston University (United States). Department of Geography

    2005-10-01

    Adaptation has emerged as an important area of research and assessment among climate change scientists. Most scholarly work has identified resource constraints as being the most significant determinants of adaptation. However, empirical research on adaptation has so far mostly not addressed the importance of measurable and alterable psychological factors in determining adaptation. Drawing from the literature in psychology and behavioural economics, we develop a socio-cognitive Model of Private Proactive Adaptation to Climate Change (MPPACC). MPPACC separates out the psychological steps to taking action in response to perception, and allows one to see where the most important bottlenecks occur - including risk perception and perceived adaptive capacity, a factor largely neglected in previous climate change research. We then examine two case studies - one from urban Germany and one from rural Zimbabwe - to explore the validity of MPPACC to explaining adaptation. In the German study, we find that MPPACC provides better statistical power than traditional socio-economic models. In the Zimbabwean case study, we find a qualitative match between MPPACC and adaptive behaviour. Finally, we discuss the important implications of our findings both on vulnerability and adaptation assessments, and on efforts to promote adaptation through outside intervention. (author)

  10. Enhancement of global flood damage assessments using building material based vulnerability curves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Englhardt, Johanna; de Ruiter, Marleen; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen

    2017-04-01

    This study discusses the development of an enhanced approach for flood damage and risk assessments using vulnerability curves that are based on building material information. The approach draws upon common practices in earthquake vulnerability assessments, and is an alternative for land-use or building occupancy approach in flood risk assessment models. The approach is of particular importance for studies where there is a large variation in building material, such as large scale studies or studies in developing countries. A case study of Ethiopia is used to demonstrate the impact of the different methodological approaches on direct damage assessments due to flooding. Generally, flood damage assessments use damage curves for different land-use or occupancy types (i.e. urban or residential and commercial classes). However, these categories do not necessarily relate directly to vulnerability of damage by flood waters. For this, the construction type and building material may be more important, as is used in earthquake risk assessments. For this study, we use building material classification data of the PAGER1 project to define new building material based vulnerability classes for flood damage. This approach will be compared to the widely applied land-use based vulnerability curves such as used by De Moel et al. (2011). The case of Ethiopia demonstrates and compares the feasibility of this novel flood vulnerability method on a country level which holds the potential to be scaled up to a global level. The study shows that flood vulnerability based on building material also allows for better differentiation between flood damage in urban and rural settings, opening doors to better link to poverty studies when such exposure data is available. Furthermore, this new approach paves the road to the enhancement of multi-risk assessments as the method enables the comparison of vulnerability across different natural hazard types that also use material-based vulnerability curves

  11. Analysis and research status of severe core damage accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1984-03-01

    The Severe Core Damage Research and Analysis Task Force was established in Nuclear Safety Research Center, Tokai Research Establishment, JAERI, in May, 1982 to make a quantitative analysis on the issues related with the severe core damage accident and also to survey the present status of the research and provide the required research subjects on the severe core damage accident. This report summarizes the results of the works performed by the Task Force during last one and half years. The main subjects investigated are as follows; (1) Discussion on the purposes and necessities of severe core damage accident research, (2) proposal of phenomenological research subjects required in Japan, (3) analysis of severe core damage accidents and identification of risk dominant accident sequences, (4) investigation of significant physical phenomena in severe core damage accidents, and (5) survey of the research status. (author)

  12. Cross-cultural adaptation of the "Australian National University Alzheimer's Disease Risk Index" for the Brazilian population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borges, Marcus Kiiti; Jacinto, Alessandro Ferrari; Citero, Vanessa de Albuquerque

    2017-01-01

    Alzheimer's disease (AD) represents a major public health problem and it is therefore crucial that modifiable risk factors be known prior to onset of dementia in late-life. The "Australian National University - Alzheimer's Disease Risk Index" (ANU-ADRI) is one of the potential tools for primary prevention of the disease. The aim of this study was to devise an adapted version of the ANU-ADRI for use in Brazil. The instrument was translated from its original language of English into Portuguese and then back-translated into English by bilingual translators. It was subsequently reviewed and evaluated as to the degree of translation issues and equivalence. In this study, the ANU-ADRI was applied using individual (face-to-face) interviews in a public hospital, unlike the original version which is applied online by self-report. The final version (pretest) was evaluated in a sample of 10 participants with a mean age of 60 years (±11.46) and mean education of 11 years (±6.32). The intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) (inter-rater) was 0.954 (P<0.001 for a confidence interval (CI) of 95%=[0.932; 0.969]). Cultural equivalence was performed without the need for a second instrument application step. After cross-cultural adaptation, the language of the resultant questionnaire was deemed easily understandable by the Brazilian population.

  13. Cross-cultural adaptation of the "Australian National University Alzheimer's Disease Risk Index" for the Brazilian population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcus Kiiti Borges

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Alzheimer's disease (AD represents a major public health problem and it is therefore crucial that modifiable risk factors be known prior to onset of dementia in late-life. The "Australian National University - Alzheimer's Disease Risk Index" (ANU-ADRI is one of the potential tools for primary prevention of the disease. Objective: The aim of this study was to devise an adapted version of the ANU-ADRI for use in Brazil. Methods: The instrument was translated from its original language of English into Portuguese and then back-translated into English by bilingual translators. It was subsequently reviewed and evaluated as to the degree of translation issues and equivalence. In this study, the ANU-ADRI was applied using individual (face-to-face interviews in a public hospital, unlike the original version which is applied online by self-report. The final version (pretest was evaluated in a sample of 10 participants with a mean age of 60 years (±11.46 and mean education of 11 years (±6.32. Results: The intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC (inter-rater was 0.954 (P<0.001 for a confidence interval (CI of 95%=[0.932; 0.969]. Cultural equivalence was performed without the need for a second instrument application step. Conclusion: After cross-cultural adaptation, the language of the resultant questionnaire was deemed easily understandable by the Brazilian population.

  14. Adaptive response to high LET radiations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dam, Annamaria; Bogdandi, E. Noemi; Polonyi, Istvan; Sardy, M. Marta; Balashazy, Imre; Palfalvy, Jozsef

    2001-01-01

    The biological consequences of exposure to ionizing radiation include gene mutation, chromosome aberrations, cellular transformation and cell death. These effects are attributed to the DNA damaging effects of the irradiation resulting in irreversible changes during DNA replication or during the processing of the DNA damage by enzymatic repair processes. These repair processes could initiate some adaptive mechanisms in the cell, which could lead to radioadaptive response (RAR). Adaptive responses have typically been detected by exposing cells to a low radiation dose (1-50 mGy) and then challenging the cells with a higher dose of radiation (2-4 Gy) and comparing the outcome to that seen with the challenge dose only. For adaptive response to be seen the challenge dose must be delivered within 24 hour of the inducing dose. Radio-adaptation is extensively studied for low LET radiation. Nevertheless, few data are available for high LET radiation at very low doses and dose rate. Our study was aimed to investigate the radioadaptive response to low-dose neutron irradiation by detection of the genotoxic damage i.e.: hprt-mutant colonies induced. Altered protein synthesis was also studied to identify stress proteins may responsible for radio-adaptation. New alpha particle irradiator system was also built up to study the biological effects of low dose alpha irradiation. The experiments were carried out on monolayers of human melanoma and CHO (Chines Hamster Ovary) cells irradiated by neutrons produced in the biological irradiation channel of the Research Reactor of Budapest Neutron Center. Cells were exposed to 0.5-50 mGy neutron doses with dose rates of 1.59-10 mGy/min. The challenge doses of 2-4 Gy gamma rays were administrated within 1-48 hours after priming treatment. The induced mutants at hprt locus were selected by adding 6-thioguanine and allow to grow for 10 days for expression of the phenotype. The protein synthesis was studied by PAGE, the molecular mass of specific

  15. Adaptation Becoming Business as Usual: A Framework for Climate-Change-Ready Transport Infrastructure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew D. Quinn

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Extreme weather damages and disrupts transport infrastructure in a multitude of ways. Heavy rainfall and ensuing landslides or flooding may lead to road or rail closures; extreme heat can damage road surfaces, or cause tracks, signalling or electronic equipment to overheat, or thermal discomfort for passengers. As extreme weather is expected to occur more frequently in the future, transport infrastructure owners and operators must increase their preparedness in order to reduce weather-related service disruption and the associated financial costs. This article presents a two-sided framework for use by any organisation to develop climate-change-ready transport infrastructure, regardless of their current level of knowledge or preparedness for climate change. The framework is composed of an adaptation strategy and an implementation plan, and has the overarching ambition to embed climate change adaptation within organisational procedures so it becomes a normal function of business. It advocates adaptation pathways, i.e., sequential adaptive actions that do not compromise future actions. The circular, iterative structure ensures new knowledge, or socio-economic changes may be incorporated, and that previous adaptations are evaluated. Moreover, the framework aligns with existing asset management procedures (e.g., ISO standards or governmental or organisational approaches to climate change adaptation. By adopting this framework, organisations can self-identify their own level of adaptation readiness and seek to enhance it.

  16. Climate Change, Adaptation, and Formal Education: the Role of Schooling for Increasing Societies' Adaptive Capacities in El Salvador and Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christine Wamsler

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available With a worldwide increase in disasters, the effects of climate change are already being felt, and it is the urban poor in developing countries who are most at risk. There is an urgent need to better understand the factors that determine people's capacity to cope with and adapt to adverse climate conditions. This paper examines the influence of formal education in determining the adaptive capacity of the residents of two low-income settlements: Los Manantiales in San Salvador (El Salvador and Rocinha in Rio de Janeiro (Brazil, where climate-related disasters are recurrent. In both case study areas, it was found that the average levels of education were lower for households living at high risk, as opposed to residents of lower risk areas. In this context, the influence of people's level of education was identified to be twofold due to (a its direct effect on aspects that reduce risk, and (b its mitigating effect on aspects that increase risk. The results further suggest that education plays a more determinant role for women than for men in relation to their capacity to adapt. In light of these results, the limited effectiveness of institutional support identified by this study might also relate to the fact that the role of formal education has so far not been sufficiently explored. Promoting (improved access to and quality of formal education as a way to increase people's adaptive capacity is further supported with respect to the negative effects of disasters on people's level of education, which in turn reduce their adaptive capacity, resulting in a vicious circle of increasing risk.

  17. Capacity to adapt to environmental change: evidence from a network of organizations concerned with increasing wildfire risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Paige. Fischer

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Because wildfire size and frequency are expected to increase in many forested areas in the United States, organizations involved in forest and wildfire management could arguably benefit from working together and sharing information to develop strategies for how to adapt to this increasing risk. Social capital theory suggests that actors in cohesive networks are positioned to build trust and mutual understanding of problems and act collectively to address these problems, and that actors engaged with diverse partners are positioned to access new information and resources that are important for innovation and complex problem solving. We investigated the patterns of interaction within a network of organizations involved in forest and wildfire management in Oregon, USA, for evidence of structural conditions that create opportunities for collective action and learning. We used descriptive statistical analysis of social network data gathered through interviews to characterize the structure of the network and exponential random graph modeling to identify key factors in the formation of network ties. We interpreted our findings through the lens of social capital theory to identify implications for the network's capacity to engage in collective action and complex problem-solving about how to adapt to environmental change. We found that tendencies to associate with others with similar management goals, geographic emphases, and attitudes toward wildfire were strong mechanisms shaping network structure, potentially constraining interactions among organizations with diverse information and resources and limiting opportunities for learning and complex problem-solving needed for adaptation. In particular, we found that organizations with fire protection and forest restoration goals comprised distinct networks despite sharing concern about the problem of increasing wildfire risk.

  18. Varying geospatial analyses to assess climate risk and adaptive capacity in a hotter, drier Southwestern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elias, E.; Reyes, J. J.; Steele, C. M.; Rango, A.

    2017-12-01

    perspectives. In addition, we found that spatial analysis supports informed adaptation, within and outside the SW United States. The persistence and adaptive capacity of agriculture in the water-limited Southwest serves as an instructive example and may offer solutions to reduce future climate risk.

  19. Interval for the expression of the adaptive response induced by gamma radiation in leucocytes of mouse In vivo

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mendiola C, M.T.; Morales R, P.

    2002-01-01

    The interval between the adaptive gamma radiation dose (0.01 Gy) and challenge (1.0 Gy) capable to induce the maximum expression of the adaptive response in lymphocytes of mouse In vivo. The animals were exposed to the mentioned doses with different intervals among both (1, 1.5, 5 or 18 hr). By means of the unicellular electrophoresis in gel technique, four damage parameters were analysed. The results showed that from the 1 hr interval an adaptive response was produced since in the pretreated organisms with 0.01 Gy the cells present lesser damage than in those not adapted. The maximum response was induced with the intervals between 2.5 and 5 hr and even though it persisted until 18 hr, the effect was reducing. (Author)

  20. Determination of the adaptive response induced In vivo by gamma radiation and its relation with the sensibility to the damage induction in the DNA and with the repairing capacity; Determinacion de la respuesta adaptativa inducida In vivo por radiacion gamma y su relacion con la sensibilidad a la induccion de dano en el ADN y con la capacidad de reparacion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mendiola C, M T

    2002-07-01

    The kinetics of damage induction and repair at different doses as well as the adaptive response induced by gamma ray exposure were determined in murine leukocytes in vivo. The damage-repair kinetics were established after the exposure to 0.5, 1.0 or 2.0 Gy in a {sup 137}Cs source. Peripheral blood samples were obtained from the tails of mice, the percentage of damaged cells and the DNA migration in each one were analyzed by the single cell gel electrophoresis (SCG) technique or comet assay. Results indicated that there was an induction of approximately 75% comets with the doses of 1.0 and 2.0 Gy, which was considerably reduced to 22% and 42% respectively during the first 15 minutes. This evidences the presence of a rapid repair process and suggests that leucocytes are genetically well prepared to repair this kind of damage. After 15 minutes, a second increase in the percentage of damaged cells that was proportional to dose occurred, which seems to represent the breaks produced during the repair of other kind of lesions. After that a second reduction was observed, reaching values near to the basal ones, except with the dose of 2.0 Gy. The kinetics obtained with the dose of 0.5 Gy was similar to that established with 1.0 Gy, but in this case the initial damage was 50 % lower. Besides, the adaptive response was observed after the exposure of the mice to an adaptive dose of 0.01 Gy and to a challenge dose of 1.0 Gy 60 minutes later. The pretreatment reduced the percentage of damaged cells caused by the challenge dose to one third approximately, and also diminished this parameter produced during the late repair process. This indicates that the early adaptive response is caused, instead of by an increment in repair, by the induction of a process that protects DNA from damage induction by radiation, i.e synthesis of substances that increase the scavenging of free radicals. (Author)