WorldWideScience

Sample records for risk adapted damage

  1. Adapting ecological risk valuation for natural resource damage assessment in water pollution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Shuzhen; Wu, Desheng

    2018-07-01

    Ecological risk assessment can address requirements of natural resource damage assessment by quantifying the magnitude of possible damages to the ecosystem. This paper investigates an approach to assess water damages from pollution incident on the basis of concentrations of contaminants. The baseline of water pollution is determined with not-to-exceed concentration of contaminants required by water quality standards. The values of damage cost to water quality are estimated through sewage treatment cost. To get a reliable estimate of treatment cost, DEA is employed to classify samples of sewage plants based on their efficiency of sewage treatment. And exponential fitting is adopted to determine the relation between treatment cost and the decrease of COCs. The range of damage costs is determined through the fitting curves respectively based on efficient and inefficient samples. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Decision-making system for registration and prioritisation of potentially polluted sites adaptable for management of war damage risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lanczos, T.; Pedersen, K. E.

    2002-01-01

    We would like to present a decision-support system developed for identification and storing data concerning with potentially polluted sites and their prioritising. This system could also be adapted for reviewing and evaluation of the war damages. The operation of the system comprises of three procedures: data collection, data handling and the prioritisation of the sites. The relevant data could be collected from different sources, represented mainly by administrative institutions, by sending questionnaires to site owners/operators and by site visits. The collected data should be handled by appropriate database. For this purpose the Contaminated Land Module of the GeoEnviron database application was developed. This application is also designed for providing the preliminary risk assessment scores, which results are used for the site prioritisation. As an example implementation of this system, we shortly present our experiences from testing the system in Slovakia

  3. Assessing damage cost estimation of urban pluvial flood risk as a mean of improving climate change adaptations investments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skovgård Olsen, Anders; Zhou, Qianqian; Linde, Jens Jørgen

    Estimating the expected annual damage (EAD) due to flooding in an urban area is of great interest for urban water managers and other stakeholders. It is a strong indicator for a given area showing how it will be affected by climate change and how much can be gained by implementing adaptation...... measures. This study investigates three different methods for estimating the EAD based on a loglinear relation between the damage costs and the return periods, one of which has been used in previous studies. The results show with the increased amount of data points there appears to be a shift in the log......-linear relation which could be contributed by the Danish design standards for drainage systems. Three different methods for estimating the EAD were tested and the choice of method is less important than accounting for the log-linear shift. This then also means that the statistical approximation of the EAD used...

  4. Core damage risk indicators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Szikszai, T.

    1994-01-01

    The purpose of this document is to show a method for the fast recalculation of the PSA. To avoid the information loose, it is necessary to simplify the PSA models, or at least reorganize them. The method, introduced in this document, require that preparation, so we try to show, how to do that. This document is an introduction. This is the starting point of the work related to the development of the risk indicators. In the future, with the application of this method, we are going to show an everyday use of the PSA results to produce the indicators of the core damage risk. There are two different indicators of the plant safety performance, related to the core damage risk. The first is the core damage frequency indicator (CDFI), and the second is the core damage probability indicator (CDPI). Of course, we cannot describe all of the possible ways to use these indicators, rather we will try to introduce the requirements to establish such an indicator system and the calculation process

  5. Risk of nuclear damage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kienzl, K.

    1997-01-01

    Following the opening and words of welcome by Mr. Fritz Unterpertinger (unit director at the Austrian Federal Ministry for the Environment, Youth and Family; BMUJF) Mrs Helga Kromp-Kolb (professor at the Institute for Meteorology and Physics of the University of Natural Resources Science Vienna) illustrated the risks of nuclear damage in Europe by means of a nuclear risk map. She explained that even from a scientific or technical point of view the assessment of risks arising from nuclear power stations was fraught with great uncertainties. Estimates about in how far MCAs (maximum credible accident) could still be controlled by safety systems vary widely and so do assessments of the probability of a core melt. But there is wide agreement in all risk assessments conducted so far that MCAs might occur within a - from a human point of view - conceivable number of years. In this connection one has to bear in mind that the occurrence of such a major accident - whatever its probability may be - could entail immense damage and the question arises whether or not it is at all justifiable to expose the general public to such a risk. Klaus Rennings (Centre for European Economic Research, Mannheim, Germany) dealt with the economic aspects of nuclear risk assessment. He explained that there are already a number of studies available aiming to assess the risk of damage resulting from a core melt accident in economic terms. As to the probability of occurrence estimates vary widely between one incident in 3,333 and 250,000 year of reactor operation. It is assumed, however, that a nuclear accident involving a core melt in Germany would probably exceed the damage caused by the Chernobyl accident. The following speakers addressed the legal aspects of risks associated with nuclear installations. Mrs Monika Gimpel-Hinteregger (professor at the Institute for Civil Law in Graz) gave an overview on the applicable Austrian law concerning third party liability in the field of nuclear energy

  6. Adaptive measurement selection for progressive damage estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Wenfan; Kovvali, Narayan; Papandreou-Suppappola, Antonia; Chattopadhyay, Aditi; Peralta, Pedro

    2011-04-01

    Noise and interference in sensor measurements degrade the quality of data and have a negative impact on the performance of structural damage diagnosis systems. In this paper, a novel adaptive measurement screening approach is presented to automatically select the most informative measurements and use them intelligently for structural damage estimation. The method is implemented efficiently in a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) setting using particle filtering. The noise suppression and improved damage estimation capability of the proposed method is demonstrated by an application to the problem of estimating progressive fatigue damage in an aluminum compact-tension (CT) sample using noisy PZT sensor measurements.

  7. Subclinical organ damage and cardiovascular risk prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sehestedt, Thomas; Olsen, Michael H

    2010-01-01

    Traditional cardiovascular risk factors have poor prognostic value for individuals and screening for subclinical organ damage has been recommended in hypertension in recent guidelines. The aim of this review was to investigate the clinical impact of the additive prognostic information provided...... by measuring subclinical organ damage. We have (i) reviewed recent studies linking markers of subclinical organ damage in the heart, blood vessels and kidney to cardiovascular risk; (ii) discussed the evidence for improvement in cardiovascular risk prediction using markers of subclinical organ damage; (iii...

  8. Integrated Damage-Adaptive Control System (IDACS), Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — SSCI, in collaboration with Boeing Phantom Works, proposes to develop and test an efficient Integrated Damage Adaptive Control System (IDACS). The proposed system is...

  9. DNA Damage Signals and Space Radiation Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cucinotta, Francis A.

    2011-01-01

    Space radiation is comprised of high-energy and charge (HZE) nuclei and protons. The initial DNA damage from HZE nuclei is qualitatively different from X-rays or gamma rays due to the clustering of damage sites which increases their complexity. Clustering of DNA damage occurs on several scales. First there is clustering of single strand breaks (SSB), double strand breaks (DSB), and base damage within a few to several hundred base pairs (bp). A second form of damage clustering occurs on the scale of a few kbp where several DSB?s may be induced by single HZE nuclei. These forms of damage clusters do not occur at low to moderate doses of X-rays or gamma rays thus presenting new challenges to DNA repair systems. We review current knowledge of differences that occur in DNA repair pathways for different types of radiation and possible relationships to mutations, chromosomal aberrations and cancer risks.

  10. Collision Risk and Damage after Collision

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Preben Terndrup; Hansen, Peter Friis; Nielsen, Lars Peter

    1996-01-01

    The paper presents a new and complete procedure for calculation of ship-ship collision rates on specific routes and the hull damage caused by such collisions.The procedure is applied to analysis of collision risks for Ro-Ro pasenger vessels. Given a collision the spatial probability distribution ...

  11. Integrated analysis considered mitigation cost, damage cost and adaptation cost in Northeast Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, J. H.; Lee, D. K.; Kim, H. G.; Sung, S.; Jung, T. Y.

    2015-12-01

    Various studies show that raising the temperature as well as storms, cold snap, raining and drought caused by climate change. And variety disasters have had a damage to mankind. The world risk report(2012, The Nature Conservancy) and UNU-EHS (the United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security) reported that more and more people are exposed to abnormal weather such as floods, drought, earthquakes, typhoons and hurricanes over the world. In particular, the case of Korea, we influenced by various pollutants which are occurred in Northeast Asian countries, China and Japan, due to geographical meteorological characteristics. These contaminants have had a significant impact on air quality with the pollutants generated in Korea. Recently, around the world continued their effort to reduce greenhouse gas and to improve air quality in conjunction with the national or regional development goals priority. China is also working on various efforts in accordance with the international flows to cope with climate change and air pollution. In the future, effect of climate change and air quality in Korea and Northeast Asia will be change greatly according to China's growth and mitigation policies. The purpose of this study is to minimize the damage caused by climate change on the Korean peninsula through an integrated approach taking into account the mitigation and adaptation plan. This study will suggest a climate change strategy at the national level by means of a comprehensive economic analysis of the impacts and mitigation of climate change. In order to quantify the impact and damage cost caused by climate change scenarios in a regional scale, it should be priority variables selected in accordance with impact assessment of climate change. The sectoral impact assessment was carried out on the basis of selected variables and through this, to derive the methodology how to estimate damage cost and adaptation cost. And then, the methodology was applied in Korea

  12. Flood damage curves for consistent global risk assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Moel, Hans; Huizinga, Jan; Szewczyk, Wojtek

    2016-04-01

    Assessing potential damage of flood events is an important component in flood risk management. Determining direct flood damage is commonly done using depth-damage curves, which denote the flood damage that would occur at specific water depths per asset or land-use class. Many countries around the world have developed flood damage models using such curves which are based on analysis of past flood events and/or on expert judgement. However, such damage curves are not available for all regions, which hampers damage assessments in those regions. Moreover, due to different methodologies employed for various damage models in different countries, damage assessments cannot be directly compared with each other, obstructing also supra-national flood damage assessments. To address these problems, a globally consistent dataset of depth-damage curves has been developed. This dataset contains damage curves depicting percent of damage as a function of water depth as well as maximum damage values for a variety of assets and land use classes (i.e. residential, commercial, agriculture). Based on an extensive literature survey concave damage curves have been developed for each continent, while differentiation in flood damage between countries is established by determining maximum damage values at the country scale. These maximum damage values are based on construction cost surveys from multinational construction companies, which provide a coherent set of detailed building cost data across dozens of countries. A consistent set of maximum flood damage values for all countries was computed using statistical regressions with socio-economic World Development Indicators from the World Bank. Further, based on insights from the literature survey, guidance is also given on how the damage curves and maximum damage values can be adjusted for specific local circumstances, such as urban vs. rural locations, use of specific building material, etc. This dataset can be used for consistent supra

  13. Framing adaptation: three aspects for climate change risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, Roger

    2007-01-01

    Full text: Substantial resources are being allocated to adaptation research and implementation. To use these resources wisely, framing the context within which adaptation decisions are made is critical. Three aspects are: Methods for assessing how much climate change to adapt to by when; Understanding the dynamic between different conceptual models for framing adaptation based on: a. Damages increasing proportionally with change, or b. Ricardian models that require adjustments to attain the 'new normal'; Adopting staged management strategies that depend on system status, which may range from business-as-usual to critical. General adaptation requirements and planning horizons need to have already been identified in scoping studies. Planning horizons include both operational and aspirational targets. Incremental adaptation can be informed by an aspirational goal far off into the future, but is undertaken through a shorter term operational approach. The need to anticipate long-term outcomes in advance is most relevant to measures that require large initial planning and investment, those with long lifetimes, or those where potential damages are irreversible and unacceptable. Five major sources of climate change uncertainty are relevant to assessing how much climate change to adapt to by when: ongoing climate variability and rate of change; past and future commitments to climate change; regional climate change projections; climate sensitivity; greenhouse gas emission scenarios and radiative forcing. These factors combine with different levels of importance depending on the relevant planning horizon. Short-term adaptation is most sensitive to the first and second factors, and long-term adaptation to the last three factors. These factors can be assessed within a probabilistic framework. Two conceptual models dominate assessments designed to inform adaptation. The IPCC Third and Fourth Assessment Reports clearly show that a great many risks increase proportionally with

  14. Risk sensitivity as an evolutionary adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hintze, Arend; Olson, Randal S.; Adami, Christoph; Hertwig, Ralph

    2015-02-01

    Risk aversion is a common behavior universal to humans and animals alike. Economists have traditionally defined risk preferences by the curvature of the utility function. Psychologists and behavioral economists also make use of concepts such as loss aversion and probability weighting to model risk aversion. Neurophysiological evidence suggests that loss aversion has its origins in relatively ancient neural circuitries (e.g., ventral striatum). Could there thus be an evolutionary origin to risk aversion? We study this question by evolving strategies that adapt to play the equivalent mean payoff gamble. We hypothesize that risk aversion in this gamble is beneficial as an adaptation to living in small groups, and find that a preference for risk averse strategies only evolves in small populations of less than 1,000 individuals, or in populations segmented into groups of 150 individuals or fewer - numbers thought to be comparable to what humans encountered in the past. We observe that risk aversion only evolves when the gamble is a rare event that has a large impact on the individual's fitness. As such, we suggest that rare, high-risk, high-payoff events such as mating and mate competition could have driven the evolution of risk averse behavior in humans living in small groups.

  15. Risk sensitivity as an evolutionary adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hintze, Arend; Olson, Randal S.; Adami, Christoph; Hertwig, Ralph

    2015-01-01

    Risk aversion is a common behavior universal to humans and animals alike. Economists have traditionally defined risk preferences by the curvature of the utility function. Psychologists and behavioral economists also make use of concepts such as loss aversion and probability weighting to model risk aversion. Neurophysiological evidence suggests that loss aversion has its origins in relatively ancient neural circuitries (e.g., ventral striatum). Could there thus be an evolutionary origin to risk aversion? We study this question by evolving strategies that adapt to play the equivalent mean payoff gamble. We hypothesize that risk aversion in this gamble is beneficial as an adaptation to living in small groups, and find that a preference for risk averse strategies only evolves in small populations of less than 1,000 individuals, or in populations segmented into groups of 150 individuals or fewer – numbers thought to be comparable to what humans encountered in the past. We observe that risk aversion only evolves when the gamble is a rare event that has a large impact on the individual's fitness. As such, we suggest that rare, high-risk, high-payoff events such as mating and mate competition could have driven the evolution of risk averse behavior in humans living in small groups. PMID:25649757

  16. Risk based decision aid for damage control

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meesters, J.L.; Keijer, W.; Gillis, M.P.W.

    2003-01-01

    The current trend in ship design is to reduce the crew. Special attention should be paid to damage control, which is a labour intensive task. Having less crew members implies that more tasks have to be automated. It also means a reduction of the available 'human sensors’, which leads to difficulties

  17. People with Increased Risk of Eye Damage from UV Light

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... With Increased Risk of Eye Damage from UV Light Leer en Español: Algunas Personas Están en Mayor Riesgo de Sufrir Daño Ocular por los Rayos UV Written By: Shirley Dang Apr. 30, 2014 Everyone of any age and any degree of skin pigmentation is susceptible to UV damage. Children are ...

  18. Radioadaptive response. Efficient repair of radiation-induced DNA damage in adapted cells

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ikushima, Takaji; Aritomi, Hisako; Morisita, Jun

    1996-01-01

    To verify the hypothesis that the induction of a novel, efficient repair mechanism for chromosomal DNA breaks may be involved in the radioadaptive response, the repair kinetics of DNA damage has been studied in cultured Chinese hamster V79 cells with single-cell gel electrophoresis. The cells were adapted by priming exposure with 5 cGy of γ-rays and 4-h incubation at 37C. There were no indication of any difference in the initial yields of DNA double-strand breaks induced by challenging doses from non-adapted cells and from adapted cells. The rejoining of DNA double-strand breaks was monitored over 120 min after the adapted cells were challenged with 5 or 1.5 Gy, doses at the same level to those used in the cytogenetical adaptive response. The rate of DNA damage repair in adapted cells was higher than that in non-adapted cells, and the residual damage was less in adapted cells than in non-adapted cells. These results indicate that the radioadaptive response may result from the induction of a novel, efficient DNA repair mechanism which leads to less residual damage, but not from the induction of protective functions that reduce the initial DNA damage

  19. Reconstructing patterns of temperature, phenology, and frost damage over 124 years: spring damage risk is increasing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Augspurger, Carol K

    2013-01-01

    Climate change, with both warmer spring temperatures and greater temperature fluctuations, has altered phenologies, possibly leading to greater risk of spring frost damage to temperate deciduous woody plants. Phenological observations of 20 woody species from 1993 to 2012 in Trelease Woods, Champaign County, Illinois, USA, were used to identify years with frost damage to vegetative and reproductive phases. Local temperature records were used in combination with the phenological observations to determine what combinations of the two were associated with damage. Finally, a long-term temperature record (1889-1992) was evaluated to determine if the frequency of frost damage has risen in recent decades. Frost Frost damage occurred in five years in the interior and in three additional years at only the forest edge. The degree of damage varied with species, life stage, tissue (vegetative or reproductive), and phenological phase. Common features associated with the occurrence of damage to interior plants were (1) a period of unusual warm temperatures in March, followed by (2) a frost event in April with a minimum temperature frost damage increased significantly, from 0.03 during 1889-1979 to 0.21 during 1980-2012. When the criteria were "softened" to frost damage events more common.

  20. The Importance of Damage Potential for Avalanche Risk Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keiler, M.; Fuchs, S.

    2003-04-01

    Risk is normally expressed as a function of recurrence probability of a process and its related damage potential. Various physical and empirical models describing the process aspect of the risk formula exist in the field of avalanche risk management while studies on damage potential are rare. Due to the changes of the socio-economic structures in mountain regions (urban sprawl, population growth, increased mobility and tourism) these studies are mandatory. This study focuses on different possibilities to obtain obligatory input parameters for multitemporal studies in settlement areas. A conceptual method that records the damage potential (probability of presence, evaluation of buildings) was developed and applied in Tyrol, Austria. A second approach, working with real-time insurance values for buildings and population growth, was tested in Grison, Switzerland. The different developments of the damage potential in the two alpine study areas are highlighted; their influences on the risk formula are discussed. The results of both studies show the advantages and disadvantages of each method, such as precision, amount of time needed and possibilities of implementing in a GIS. The results serve to improve risk determination and point out an unnoticed increase of damage potential and risk in apparently safe settlement areas.

  1. Sandwich Structure Risk Reduction in Support of the Payload Adapter Fitting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nettles, A. T.; Jackson, J. R.; Guin, W. E.

    2018-01-01

    Reducing risk for utilizing honeycomb sandwich structure for the Space Launch System payload adapter fitting includes determining what parameters need to be tested for damage tolerance to ensure a safe structure. Specimen size and boundary conditions are the most practical parameters to use in damage tolerance inspection. The effect of impact over core splices and foreign object debris between the facesheet and core is assessed. Effects of enhanced damage tolerance by applying an outer layer of carbon fiber woven cloth is examined. A simple repair technique for barely visible impact damage that restores all compression strength is presented.

  2. Alleviating inequality in climate policy costs: an integrated perspective on mitigation, damage and adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Cian, E.; Hof, A. F.; Marangoni, G.; Tavoni, M.; van Vuuren, D. P.

    2016-07-01

    Equity considerations play an important role in international climate negotiations. While policy analysis has often focused on equity as it relates to mitigation costs, there are large regional differences in adaptation costs and the level of residual damage. This paper illustrates the relevance of including adaptation and residual damage in equity considerations by determining how the allocation of emission allowances would change to counteract regional differences in total climate costs, defined as the costs of mitigation, adaptation, and residual damage. We compare emission levels resulting from a global carbon tax with two allocations of emission allowances under a global cap-and-trade system: one equating mitigation costs and one equating total climate costs as share of GDP. To account for uncertainties in both mitigation and adaptation, we use a model-comparison approach employing two alternative modeling frameworks with different damage, adaptation cost, and mitigation cost estimates, and look at two different climate goals. Despite the identified model uncertainties, we derive unambiguous results on the change in emission allowance allocation that could lessen the unequal distribution of adaptation costs and residual damages through the financial transfers associated with emission trading.

  3. World Health Organization cardiovascular risk stratification and target organ damage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piskorz, D; Bongarzoni, L; Citta, L; Citta, N; Citta, P; Keller, L; Mata, L; Tommasi, A

    2016-01-01

    Prediction charts allow treatment to be targeted according to simple markers of cardiovascular risk; many algorithms do not recommend screening asymptomatic target organ damage which could change dramatically the assessment. To demonstrate that target organ damage is present in low cardiovascular risk hypertensive patients and it is more frequent and severe as global cardiovascular risk increases. Consecutive hypertensive patients treated at a single Latin American center. Cardiovascular risk stratified according to 2013 WHO/ISH risk prediction chart America B. Left ventricular mass assessed by Devereux method, left ventricular hypertrophy considered >95g/m(2) in women and >115g/m(2) in men. Transmitral diastolic peak early flow velocity to average septal/lateral peak early diastolic relaxation velocity (E/e' ratio) measured cut off value >13. Systolic function assessed by tissue Doppler average interventricular septum/lateral wall mitral annulus rate systolic excursion (s wave). A total of 292 patients were included of whom 159 patients (54.5%) had cardiovascular risk of 20%. Left ventricular hypertrophy was detected in 17.6% low risk patients, 27.8% in medium risk and 23.3% in high risk (p<0.05), abnormal E/e' ratio was found in 13.8%, 31.1% and 27.9%, respectively (p<0.05). Mean s wave was 8.03+8, 8.1+9 and 8.7+1cm/s for low, intermediate and high risk patients, respectively (p<0.025). Target organ damage is more frequent and severe in high risk; one over four subjects was misclassified due to the presence of asymptomatic target organ damage. Copyright © 2015 SEHLELHA. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  4. Simulation of Spacecraft Damage Tolerance and Adaptive Controls

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-06-01

    9.9639/24/3600/180*pi*0; %nodal precession constant assumed zero here wn=kpre*(Re/(Re+h))^3.5*cos(incln); %nodal precession (zero eccentricity ) V...for 0 H spin up w_wheel=2800*(2*pi/60); % Wheel speed in RPM converted to rad/s Iwheel=0.0614*1.3558179483314; % Wheel inertia in slug-ft^2...converted (exact) to kg m^2 h_wheel=Iwheel*w_wheel; % CMG Wheel Angular Momentum % [Fossen]’s adaptive feedforward parameters ETA=-100; LAMBDA=0.5

  5. Prevention of damage and 'residual risk' in nuclear power laws

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Greipl, C.

    1992-01-01

    The concept of prevention of damage within the framework of nuclear power laws includes averting danger for the protection of third parties and preventing risks for the partial protection of third parties with the proviso that still a desire to use the concept 'residual risk' in addition, it should be limited, on the grounds of what can be reasonably expected, to those risks which cannot be reduced any further by the government, i.e. to risks which the public in general and third parties ('actually') must accept. In the future, questions regarding safety systems should be taken into account exclusively withing the context of 'what is necessary for protection against damage in keeping with the latest developments in science and technology' and not at the discretion of the law in denying permission according to Article 7 Paragraph 2 Atomic Energy Law. (orig.) [de

  6. Cancer risk and oxidative DNA damage in man

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Loft, S; Poulsen, H E

    1996-01-01

    with a mechanistically based increased risk of cancer, including Fanconi anemia, chronic hepatitis, cystic fibrosis, and various autoimmune diseases, the biomarker studies indicate an increased rate of oxidative DNA damage or in some instances deficient repair. Human studies support the experimentally based notion...

  7. Optimal CO2 mitigation under damage risk valuation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crost, Benjamin; Traeger, Christian P.

    2014-07-01

    The current generation has to set mitigation policy under uncertainty about the economic consequences of climate change. This uncertainty governs both the level of damages for a given level of warming, and the steepness of the increase in damage per warming degree. Our model of climate and the economy is a stochastic version of a model employed in assessing the US Social Cost of Carbon (DICE). We compute the optimal carbon taxes and CO2 abatement levels that maximize welfare from economic consumption over time under different risk states. In accordance with recent developments in finance, we separate preferences about time and risk to improve the model's calibration of welfare to observed market interest. We show that introducing the modern asset pricing framework doubles optimal abatement and carbon taxation. Uncertainty over the level of damages at a given temperature increase can result in a slight increase of optimal emissions as compared to using expected damages. In contrast, uncertainty governing the steepness of the damage increase in temperature results in a substantially higher level of optimal mitigation.

  8. Terrorism cover in France for property damage including nuclear risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stanislas, A.

    2004-01-01

    The obligation to include terrorism cover in all Property Damage policies issued on the French Market is ruled by an Act of 1986 and introduced under Section R 126-2 of the French Code of Insurance. This section stipulates that Property Damage policies must provide cover for damage resulting from acts of terrorism, with the same deductible and the same limit than that of the other damage covered in the policy. Soon after the dramatic events of September 11, 2001 in the United States and although reinsurers worldwide restricted their offer of capacities, French insurers recognized that they had to maintain this global cover for the benefit of their insurers. After difficult discussions between insurers, reinsurers, brokers, risk managers and representatives of the State, the creation of a new Pool, backed with a State guarantee, was decided in less than three months. Effective January 1, 2002 and called Gestion d'Assurance et de Reassurance des Risques Attentats et Actes de Terrorisme (GAREAT), the Pool offers a multiple layers stop-loss cover for Property Damage only, i.e. excluding TPL policies. Considering that nuclear risks should be treated in the same way as other industrial risks, it was decided that they would be covered by GAREAT as well. In the meantime, by a Decree of December 28, 2001 modifying Section R 126-2, a special provision, aiming at reducing the limit and thus the price of this cover, was introduced in the Code. The purpose of this paper is to expose the present situation applying through GAREAT and, after two years of operation to discuss future developments, including other sources of capacity for the coverage of acts of terrorism in nuclear risks insurance.(author)

  9. Features of risks, damage claims processing and damage prevention overseas. Pt. 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Splittgerber, E

    1981-01-01

    In opening up new raw material resources in remote locations and in the erection of industrial installations in overseas countries, manufacturers are often confronted with additional, unusual and hitherto unknown risks which can have considerable influence upon the orderly and timely execution of their projects. In Part I, various risk factors are considered from the experiences of Allianz as technical insurer in foreign damages connected with plant, civil and installation work insurance. The influence of climatic conditions upon damage events is illustrated with examples and the effects of storm, sand storm, flooding and earthquake discussed using a world map of natural dangers. The customs of people from culturally different nations and races, dictated as they often are by religion, must be taken into account by site managers and other staff on the building sites. The necessity for improvisations on building sites far from home and the limits of such improvisations are also discussed.

  10. FACOTRS TO DETERMINE RISK PERCEPTION OF CLIMATE CHANGE, AND ATTITUDE TOWARD ADAPTATION POLICY OF THE PUBLIC

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baba, Kenshi; Sugimoto, Takuya; Kubota, Hiromi; Hijioka, Yasuaki; Tanaka, Mitsuru

    This study clarifies the factors to determine risk perception of climate change and attitudes toward adaptation policy by analyzing the data collecting from Internet survey to the general public. The results indicate the followings: 1) more than 70% people perceive some sort of risk of climate change, and most people are awaken to wind and flood damage. 2) most people recognize that mitigation policy is much more important than adaptation policy, whereas most people assume to accept adaptation policy as self-reponsibility, 3) the significant factors to determinane risk perception of climate chage and attitude towerd adaptation policy are cognition of benefits on the policy and procedural justice in the policy process in addion to demographics such as gender, experience of disaster, intension of inhabitant.

  11. Alleviating inequality in climate policy costs : An integrated perspective on mitigation, damage and adaptation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    De Cian, E.; Hof, A. F.; Marangoni, G.; Tavoni, M.; van Vuuren, Detlef

    2016-01-01

    Equity considerations play an important role in international climate negotiations. While policy analysis has often focused on equity as it relates to mitigation costs, there are large regional differences in adaptation costs and the level of residual damage. This paper illustrates the relevance of

  12. Mild hyperthermia can induce adaptation to cytogenetic damage caused by subsequent X irradiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cai, Lu.; Jiang, Jie.

    1995-01-01

    Many low-level environmental agents are able to induce an increased resistance to subsequent mutagenic effects induced by ionizing radiation. In this paper, an induced cytogenetic adaptation to radiation in human lymphocytes was studied with mild hyperthermia as the adaptive treatment and compared with that induced by low-dose radiation. We found that this adaptation could be induced not only in PHA-stimulated human lymphocytes (at 14, 38 and 42 h after addition of PHA), but also in unstimulated G 0 -phase cells (before addition of PHA) by mild hyperthermia (41 degrees C for 1 h) as well as 50 mGy X rays. When the two adaptive treatments were combined, no additive effects on the magnitude of the adaptation induced were observed, suggesting that low-dose radiation and hyperthermia may share one mechanism of induction of adaptation to cytogenetic damage. Some mechanisms which may be involved in the induction of adaptation to cytogenetic damage by low-dose radiation are discussed and compared with the effects of mild hyperthermia in inducing thermotolerance and radioresistance. 56 refs., 4 figs., 3 tabs

  13. Adaptation of an HIV behavioural disinhibition risk reduction ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Adaptation of an HIV behavioural disinhibition risk reduction intervention for ... disinhibition risk reduction interventions for recently circumcised men for use in clinic ... medicine HIV prevention technologies into the male circumcision contexts.

  14. Estimation of embrittlement damage risk at neutron embrittled vessel constructions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Staevski, K.; Madzharov, D.; Detistov, P.; Petrova, T.

    1998-01-01

    In this work a methodology based on Damage mechanics criteria is proposed. This methodology serves for probability assessment of the brittle damage risk for the neutron embrittled vessel elements. The developed methodology is realised in RISK code and has been verified on the base of tough reliability of the pressure vessel, 'Kozloduy' NPP Unit 2. This investigation has been carried out at the given parameters of the possible defects on the vessel's weld 4 taking into account requirements of the western and Russian standards. The obtained values for ductile to brittle transition temperatures, defining the equipment life-time in the presence of maximal defect, are in good consistence with the experimentally determined ones. The analyses of results show that the pressure vessel of 'Kozloduy' NPP Unit 2 has got a high level of reliability from brittle damage risk point of view and that the western standards give more conservative evaluation. On the bases of the results a conclusion is made that the developed methodology enables analysing the influence of possible defects in the neutron embrittled elements on their to reliability and their remained life-time

  15. RISK, VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE: AN INTERDISCIPLINARY APPROACH

    OpenAIRE

    Iwama,Allan Yu; Batistella,Mateus; Ferreira,Lúcia da Costa; Alves,Diogenes Salas; Ferreira,Leila da Costa

    2016-01-01

    Abstract This study addresses risk, vulnerability, and their implications for the adaptation of communities to the problems they face in the everyday life and to those derived from climate change. Based on the literature about risk, vulnerability and adaptation to disasters and on a case study conducted in the Northern coast of São Paulo - Brazil, we summarize the converging themes in the analysis of vulnerability and adaptation to climate change, which are divided in three components: (i) in...

  16. Accommodating the Challenges of Climate Change Adaptation and Governance in Conventional Risk Management: Adaptive Collaborative Risk Management (ACRM)

    OpenAIRE

    Bradley May; Ryan Plummer

    2011-01-01

    Risk management is a well established tool for climate change adaptation. It is facing new challenges with the end of climate stationarity and the need to meaningfully engage people in governance issues. The ways in which conventional approaches to risk management can respond to these challenges are explored. Conventional approaches to risk management are summarized, the manner in which they are being advanced as a tool for climate change adaptation is described, and emerging themes in risk m...

  17. Molecular mechanism of radioadaptive response: A cross-adaptive response for enhanced repair of DNA damage in adapted cells

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takaji Ikushima

    1997-01-01

    The radioadaptive response (RAR) has been attributed to the induction of a repair mechanism by low doses of ionizing radiation, but the molecular nature of the mechanism is not yet elucidated. We have characterized RAR in a series of experiments in cultured Chinese hamster V79 cells. A 4-h interval is required for the full expression of RAR, which decays with the progression of cell proliferation. Treatments with inhibitors of poly(ADP-ribose) polymerase, protein- or RNA synthesis, and protein kinase C suppress the RAR expression. The RAR cross-reacts on clastogenic lesions induced by other physical and chemical DNA-damaging agents. The presence of newly synthesised proteins has been detected during the expression period. Experiments performed using single-cell gel electrophoresis provided more direct evidence for a faster and enhaced DNA repair rate in adapted cells. Here, using single-cell gel electrophoresis, a cross-adaptive response has been demonstrated for enhanced repair of DNA damage induced by neocarzinostatin in radio-adapted cells. (author)

  18. Automatic characterization of loose parts impact damage risk parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Glass, S.W.; Phillips, J.M.

    1985-01-01

    Loose parts caught in the high-velocity flows of the reactor coolant fluid strike against nuclear steam supply system (NSSS) components and can cause significant damage. Loose parts monitor systems (LPMS) have been available for years to detect metal-to-metal impacts. Once detected, however, an assessment of the damage risk potential for leaving the part in the system versus shutting it down and removing the part must be made. The principal parameters used in the damage risk assessment are time delays between the first and subsequent sensor indications (used to assess the impact location) and a correlation between the waveform and the impact energy of the part (how hard the part impacted). These parameters are not well suited to simple automatic techniques. The task has historically been performed by loose parts diagnostic experts who base much of their evaluation on experience and subjective interpretation of impact data waveforms. Three of the principal goals in developing the Babcock and Wilcox (B and W) LPMS-III were (a) to develop an accurate automatic assessment for the time delays, (b) to develop an automatic estimate of the impact energy, and (c) to present the data in a meaningful manner to the operator

  19. Damage-reducing measures to manage flood risks in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kreibich, Heidi; Bubeck, Philip; Van Vliet, Mathijs; De Moel, Hans

    2014-05-01

    Damage due to floods has increased during the last few decades, and further increases are expected in several regions due to climate change and a growing vulnerability. To address the projected increase in flood risk, a combination of structural and non-structural flood risk mitigation measures is considered as a promising adaptation strategy. Such a combination takes into account that flood defence systems may fail, and prepare for unexpected crisis situations via land-use planning, building construction, evacuation and disaster response. Non-structural flood risk mitigation measures like shielding with water shutters or sand bags, building fortification or safeguarding of hazardous substances are often voluntary: they demand self-dependent action by the population at risk (Bubeck et al. 2012; 2013). It is believed that these measures are especially effective in areas with frequent flood events and low flood water levels, but some types of measures showed a significant damage-reducing effect also during extreme flood events, such as the Elbe River flood in August 2002 in Germany (Kreibich et al. 2005; 2011). Despite the growing importance of damage-reducing measures, information is still scarce about factors that motivate people to undertake such measures, the state of implementation of various non-structural measures in different countries and their damage reducing effects. Thus, we collected information and undertook an international review about this topic in the framework of the Dutch KfC project "Climate proof flood risk management". The contribution will present an overview about the available information on damage-reducing measures and draw conclusions for practical flood risk management in a changing climate. References: Bubeck, P., Botzen, W. J. W., Suu, L. T. T., Aerts, J. C. J. H. (2012): Do flood risk perceptions provide useful insights for flood risk management? Findings from central Vietnam. Journal of Flood Risk Management, 5, 4, 295-302 Bubeck, P

  20. Signs of long-term adaptation to permanent brain damage as revealed by prehension studies of children with spastic hemiparesis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Steenbergen, B.; Meulenbroek, R.G.J.; Latash, M.L.; Levin, M.

    2003-01-01

    This chapter focusses on signs of long-term adaptation to permanent brain damage in children with spastic hemiparesis. First, we recognize that adaptation processes may occur at various time scales. Then, we formulate a tentative strategy to infer signs of adaptation from behavioral data.

  1. The role of conservation programs in drought risk adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steven Wallander; Marcel Aillery; Daniel Hellerstein; Michael Hand

    2013-01-01

    This report evaluates the extent to which farms facing higher levels of drought risk are more likely to participate in conservation programs, and fi nds a strong link between drought risk and program participation. Prior research has shown that climate-related risk exposure infl uences production decisions such as crop choice; our research shows that adaptation also...

  2. Uncertainty and Sensitivity of Direct Economic Flood Damages: the FloodRisk Free and Open-Source Software

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albano, R.; Sole, A.; Mancusi, L.; Cantisani, A.; Perrone, A.

    2017-12-01

    The considerable increase of flood damages in the the past decades has shifted in Europe the attention from protection against floods to managing flood risks. In this context, the expected damages assessment represents a crucial information within the overall flood risk management process. The present paper proposes an open source software, called FloodRisk, that is able to operatively support stakeholders in the decision making processes with a what-if approach by carrying out the rapid assessment of the flood consequences, in terms of direct economic damage and loss of human lives. The evaluation of the damage scenarios, trough the use of the GIS software proposed here, is essential for cost-benefit or multi-criteria analysis of risk mitigation alternatives. However, considering that quantitative assessment of flood damages scenarios is characterized by intrinsic uncertainty, a scheme has been developed to identify and quantify the role of the input parameters in the total uncertainty of flood loss model application in urban areas with mild terrain and complex topography. By the concept of parallel models, the contribution of different module and input parameters to the total uncertainty is quantified. The results of the present case study have exhibited a high epistemic uncertainty on the damage estimation module and, in particular, on the type and form of the utilized damage functions, which have been adapted and transferred from different geographic and socio-economic contexts because there aren't depth-damage functions that are specifically developed for Italy. Considering that uncertainty and sensitivity depend considerably on local characteristics, the epistemic uncertainty associated with the risk estimate is reduced by introducing additional information into the risk analysis. In the light of the obtained results, it is evident the need to produce and disseminate (open) data to develop micro-scale vulnerability curves. Moreover, the urgent need to push

  3. Risk-adaptive optimization: Selective boosting of high-risk tumor subvolumes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Yusung; Tome, Wolfgang A.

    2006-01-01

    Background and Purpose: A tumor subvolume-based, risk-adaptive optimization strategy is presented. Methods and Materials: Risk-adaptive optimization employs a biologic objective function instead of an objective function based on physical dose constraints. Using this biologic objective function, tumor control probability (TCP) is maximized for different tumor risk regions while at the same time minimizing normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) for organs at risk. The feasibility of risk-adaptive optimization was investigated for a variety of tumor subvolume geometries, risk-levels, and slopes of the TCP curve. Furthermore, the impact of a correlation parameter, δ, between TCP and NTCP on risk-adaptive optimization was investigated. Results: Employing risk-adaptive optimization, it is possible in a prostate cancer model to increase the equivalent uniform dose (EUD) by up to 35.4 Gy in tumor subvolumes having the highest risk classification without increasing predicted normal tissue complications in organs at risk. For all tumor subvolume geometries investigated, we found that the EUD to high-risk tumor subvolumes could be increased significantly without increasing normal tissue complications above those expected from a treatment plan aiming for uniform dose coverage of the planning target volume. We furthermore found that the tumor subvolume with the highest risk classification had the largest influence on the design of the risk-adaptive dose distribution. The parameter δ had little effect on risk-adaptive optimization. However, the clinical parameters D 5 and γ 5 that represent the risk classification of tumor subvolumes had the largest impact on risk-adaptive optimization. Conclusions: On the whole, risk-adaptive optimization yields heterogeneous dose distributions that match the risk level distribution of different subvolumes within the tumor volume

  4. Climate change adaptation, damages and fossil fuel dependence. An RETD position paper on the costs of inaction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Katofsky, Ryan; Stanberry, Matt; Hagenstad, Marca; Frantzis, Lisa

    2011-07-15

    The Renewable Energy Technology Deployment (RETD) agreement initiated this project to advance the understanding of the ''Costs of Inaction'', i.e. the costs of climate change adaptation, damages and fossil fuel dependence. A quantitative estimate was developed as well as a better understanding of the knowledge gaps and research needs. The project also included some conceptual work on how to better integrate the analyses of mitigation, adaptation, damages and fossil fuel dependence in energy scenario modelling.

  5. Bisecting real and fake body parts: effects of prism adaptation after right brain damage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nadia eBolognini

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The representation of body parts holds a special status in the brain, due to their prototypical shape and the contribution of multisensory (visual and somatosensory-proprioceptive information. In a previous study (Sposito et al., 2010, we showed that patients with left unilateral spatial neglect exhibit a rightward bias in setting the mid-point of their left forearm, which becomes larger when bisecting a cylindrical object comparable in size. This body part advantage, found also in control participants, suggests partly different processes for computing the extent of body parts and objects. In this study we tested 16 right-brain-damaged patients, and 10 unimpaired participants, on a manual bisection task of their own (real left forearm, or a size-matched fake forearm. We then explored the effects of adaptation to rightward displacing prism exposure, which brings about leftward aftereffects. We found that all participants showed prism adaptation and aftereffects, with right-brain-damaged patients exhibiting a reduction of the rightward bias for both real and fake forearm, with no overall differences between them. Second, correlation analyses highlighted the role of visual and proprioceptive information for the metrics of body parts. Third, single-patient analyses showed dissociations between real and fake forearm bisections, and the effects of prism adaptation, as well as a more frequent impairment with fake body parts. In sum, the rightward bias shown by right-brain-damaged patients in bisecting body parts is reduced by prism exposure, as other components of the neglect syndrome; discrete spatial representations for real and fake body parts, for which visual and proprioceptive codes play different roles, are likely to exist. Multisensory information seems to render self bodily segments more resistant to the disruption brought about by right-hemisphere injury.

  6. Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adger, W Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja

    2018-06-13

    Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts.This article is part of the theme issue 'Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'. © 2018 The Author(s).

  7. Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adger, W. Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja

    2018-01-01

    Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy’. PMID:29712800

  8. Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adger, W. Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja

    2018-06-01

    Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts. This article is part of the theme issue `Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

  9. A sequential model to link contextual risk, perception and public support for flood adaptation policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shao, Wanyun; Xian, Siyuan; Lin, Ning; Small, Mitchell J

    2017-10-01

    The economic damage from coastal flooding has dramatically increased over the past several decades, owing to rapid development in shoreline areas and possible effects of climate change. To respond to these trends, it is imperative for policy makers to understand individuals' support for flood adaptation policy. Using original survey data for all coastal counties of the United States Gulf Coast merged with contextual data on flood risk, this study investigates coastal residents' support for two adaptation policy measures: incentives for relocation and funding for educational programs on emergency planning and evacuation. Specifically, this study explores the interactive relationships among contextual flood risks, perceived flood risks and policy support for flood adaptation, with the effects of social-demographic variables being controlled. Age, gender, race and partisanship are found to significantly affect individuals' policy support for both adaptation measures. The contextual flooding risks, indicated by distance from the coast, maximum wind speed and peak height of storm surge associated with the last hurricane landfall, and percentage of high-risk flood zone per county, are shown to impact one's perceptions of risk, which in turn influence one's support for both policy measures. The key finding -risk perception mediates the impact of contextual risk conditions on public support for flood management policies - highlights the need to ensure that the public is well informed by the latest scientific, engineering and economic knowledge. To achieve this, more information on current and future flood risks and options available for mitigation as well as risk communication tools are needed. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Preparing for Local Adaptation: Understanding Flood Risk Perceptions in Pittsburgh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klima, K.; Wong-Parodi, G.

    2015-12-01

    The City of Pittsburgh experiences numerous floods every year. Aging and insufficient infrastructure contribute to flash floods and to over 20 billion gallons of combined sewer overflows annually, contaminating Pittsburgh's streets, basements, and waterways. Climate change is expected to further exacerbate this problem by causing more intense and more frequent extreme precipitation events in Western Pennsylvania. For a stormwater adaptation plan to be implemented effectively, the City will need informed public support. One way to achieve public understanding and support is through effective communication of the risks, benefits, and uncertainties of local flooding hazards and adaptation methods. In order to develop these communications effectively, the city and its partners will need to know what knowledge and attitudes the residents of Pittsburgh already hold about flood risks. Here we seek to (1) identify Pittsburgh residents' knowledge level, risk perception and attitudes towards flooding and storm water management, and (2) pre-test communications meant to inform and empower Pittsburghers about flood risks and adaptation strategies. We conduct a city-wide survey of 10,000 Pittsburgh renters and homeowners from four life situations: high risk, above poverty; high-risk, below poverty; low risk, above poverty; and low-risk, below poverty. Mixed media recruitment strategies (online and paper-based solicitations guided/organized by community organizations) assist in reaching all subpopulations. Preliminary results suggest participants know what stormwater runoff is, but have a weak understanding of how stormwater interacts with natural and built systems. Furthermore, although participants have a good understanding of the difference between green and gray infrastructure, this does not translate into a change in their willingness to pay for green infrastructure adaptation. This suggests additional communications about flood risks and adaptation strategies.

  11. Endogenous DNA Damage and Risk of Testicular Germ Cell Tumors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cook, M B; Sigurdson, A J; Jones, I M; Thomas, C B; Graubard, B I; Korde, L; Greene, M H; McGlynn, K A

    2008-01-18

    Testicular germ cell tumors (TGCT) are comprised of two histologic groups, seminomas and nonseminomas. We postulated that the possible divergent pathogeneses of these histologies may be partially explained by variable endogenous DNA damage. To assess our hypothesis, we conducted a case-case analysis of seminomas and nonseminomas using the alkaline comet assay to quantify single-strand DNA breaks and alkali-labile sites. The Familial Testicular Cancer study and the U.S. Radiologic Technologists cohort provided 112 TGCT cases (51 seminomas & 61 nonseminomas). A lymphoblastoid cell line was cultured for each patient and the alkaline comet assay was used to determine four parameters: tail DNA, tail length, comet distributed moment (CDM) and Olive tail moment (OTM). Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI) were estimated using logistic regression. Values for tail length, tail DNA, CDM and OTM were modeled as categorical variables using the 50th and 75th percentiles of the seminoma group. Tail DNA was significantly associated with nonseminoma compared to seminoma (OR{sub 50th percentile} = 3.31, 95%CI: 1.00, 10.98; OR{sub 75th percentile} = 3.71, 95%CI: 1.04, 13.20; p for trend=0.039). OTM exhibited similar, albeit statistically non-significant, risk estimates (OR{sub 50th percentile} = 2.27, 95%CI: 0.75, 6.87; OR{sub 75th percentile} = 2.40, 95%CI: 0.75, 7.71; p for trend=0.12) whereas tail length and CDM showed no association. In conclusion, the results for tail DNA and OTM indicate that endogenous DNA damage levels are higher in patients who develop nonseminoma compared with seminoma. This may partly explain the more aggressive biology and younger age-of-onset of this histologic subgroup compared with the relatively less aggressive, later-onset seminoma.

  12. Warning: safety risk with some Apple AC Wall Plug Adapters

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN IT department

    2016-01-01

    Dear Mac and iOS Users, Apple has determined that some of its two prong Apple AC wall plug adapters may break and create a risk of electrical shock.   CERN users can now exchange their affected Apple wall plug adapters at the Service Desk. To find out if your adapter is affected and for any further information concerning the procedure to follow to exchange it, please check the following URL: https://cern.service-now.com/service-portal/view-outage.do?n=OTG0028639.

  13. Risk-return relationship in a complex adaptive system.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kunyu Song

    Full Text Available For survival and development, autonomous agents in complex adaptive systems involving the human society must compete against or collaborate with others for sharing limited resources or wealth, by using different methods. One method is to invest, in order to obtain payoffs with risk. It is a common belief that investments with a positive risk-return relationship (namely, high risk high return and vice versa are dominant over those with a negative risk-return relationship (i.e., high risk low return and vice versa in the human society; the belief has a notable impact on daily investing activities of investors. Here we investigate the risk-return relationship in a model complex adaptive system, in order to study the effect of both market efficiency and closeness that exist in the human society and play an important role in helping to establish traditional finance/economics theories. We conduct a series of computer-aided human experiments, and also perform agent-based simulations and theoretical analysis to confirm the experimental observations and reveal the underlying mechanism. We report that investments with a negative risk-return relationship have dominance over those with a positive risk-return relationship instead in such a complex adaptive systems. We formulate the dynamical process for the system's evolution, which helps to discover the different role of identical and heterogeneous preferences. This work might be valuable not only to complexity science, but also to finance and economics, to management and social science, and to physics.

  14. Risk-return relationship in a complex adaptive system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Kunyu; An, Kenan; Yang, Guang; Huang, Jiping

    2012-01-01

    For survival and development, autonomous agents in complex adaptive systems involving the human society must compete against or collaborate with others for sharing limited resources or wealth, by using different methods. One method is to invest, in order to obtain payoffs with risk. It is a common belief that investments with a positive risk-return relationship (namely, high risk high return and vice versa) are dominant over those with a negative risk-return relationship (i.e., high risk low return and vice versa) in the human society; the belief has a notable impact on daily investing activities of investors. Here we investigate the risk-return relationship in a model complex adaptive system, in order to study the effect of both market efficiency and closeness that exist in the human society and play an important role in helping to establish traditional finance/economics theories. We conduct a series of computer-aided human experiments, and also perform agent-based simulations and theoretical analysis to confirm the experimental observations and reveal the underlying mechanism. We report that investments with a negative risk-return relationship have dominance over those with a positive risk-return relationship instead in such a complex adaptive systems. We formulate the dynamical process for the system's evolution, which helps to discover the different role of identical and heterogeneous preferences. This work might be valuable not only to complexity science, but also to finance and economics, to management and social science, and to physics.

  15. Integrating adaptive behaviour in large-scale flood risk assessments: an Agent-Based Modelling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haer, Toon; Aerts, Jeroen

    2015-04-01

    Between 1998 and 2009, Europe suffered over 213 major damaging floods, causing 1126 deaths, displacing around half a million people. In this period, floods caused at least 52 billion euro in insured economic losses making floods the most costly natural hazard faced in Europe. In many low-lying areas, the main strategy to cope with floods is to reduce the risk of the hazard through flood defence structures, like dikes and levees. However, it is suggested that part of the responsibility for flood protection needs to shift to households and businesses in areas at risk, and that governments and insurers can effectively stimulate the implementation of individual protective measures. However, adaptive behaviour towards flood risk reduction and the interaction between the government, insurers, and individuals has hardly been studied in large-scale flood risk assessments. In this study, an European Agent-Based Model is developed including agent representatives for the administrative stakeholders of European Member states, insurers and reinsurers markets, and individuals following complex behaviour models. The Agent-Based Modelling approach allows for an in-depth analysis of the interaction between heterogeneous autonomous agents and the resulting (non-)adaptive behaviour. Existing flood damage models are part of the European Agent-Based Model to allow for a dynamic response of both the agents and the environment to changing flood risk and protective efforts. By following an Agent-Based Modelling approach this study is a first contribution to overcome the limitations of traditional large-scale flood risk models in which the influence of individual adaptive behaviour towards flood risk reduction is often lacking.

  16. Capturing changes in flood risk with Bayesian approaches for flood damage assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogel, Kristin; Schröter, Kai; Kreibich, Heidi; Thieken, Annegret; Müller, Meike; Sieg, Tobias; Laudan, Jonas; Kienzler, Sarah; Weise, Laura; Merz, Bruno; Scherbaum, Frank

    2016-04-01

    Flood risk is a function of hazard as well as of exposure and vulnerability. All three components are under change over space and time and have to be considered for reliable damage estimations and risk analyses, since this is the basis for an efficient, adaptable risk management. Hitherto, models for estimating flood damage are comparatively simple and cannot sufficiently account for changing conditions. The Bayesian network approach allows for a multivariate modeling of complex systems without relying on expert knowledge about physical constraints. In a Bayesian network each model component is considered to be a random variable. The way of interactions between those variables can be learned from observations or be defined by expert knowledge. Even a combination of both is possible. Moreover, the probabilistic framework captures uncertainties related to the prediction and provides a probability distribution for the damage instead of a point estimate. The graphical representation of Bayesian networks helps to study the change of probabilities for changing circumstances and may thus simplify the communication between scientists and public authorities. In the framework of the DFG-Research Training Group "NatRiskChange" we aim to develop Bayesian networks for flood damage and vulnerability assessments of residential buildings and companies under changing conditions. A Bayesian network learned from data, collected over the last 15 years in flooded regions in the Elbe and Danube catchments (Germany), reveals the impact of many variables like building characteristics, precaution and warning situation on flood damage to residential buildings. While the handling of incomplete and hybrid (discrete mixed with continuous) data are the most challenging issues in the study on residential buildings, a similar study, that focuses on the vulnerability of small to medium sized companies, bears new challenges. Relying on a much smaller data set for the determination of the model

  17. Assessment of Damage and Adaptation Strategies for Structures and Infrastructure from Storm Surge and Sea Level Rise for a Coastal Community in Rhode Island, United States

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher Small

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an evaluation of inundation, erosion, and wave damage for a coastal community in Rhode Island, USA. A methodology called the Coastal Environmental Risk Index (CERI was used that incorporates levels of inundation including sea level rise, wave heights using STWAVE, and detailed information about individual structures from an E911 database. This information was input into damage functions developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers following Hurricane Sandy. Damage from erosion was evaluated separately from local published erosion rates. Using CERI, two different adaptation strategies were evaluated that included a combination of dune restoration, protective berms, and a tide gate. A total of 151 out of 708 structures were estimated to be protected from inundation and wave action by the combined measures. More importantly, the use of CERI allowed for the assessment of the impact of different adaptation strategies on both individual structures and an entire community in a Geographical Information Systems (GIS environment. This tool shows promise for use by coastal managers to assess damage and mitigate risk to coastal communities.

  18. Comparing Methods of Calculating Expected Annual Damage in Urban Pluvial Flood Risk Assessments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skovgård Olsen, Anders; Zhou, Qianqian; Linde, Jens Jørgen

    2015-01-01

    Estimating the expected annual damage (EAD) due to flooding in an urban area is of great interest for urban water managers and other stakeholders. It is a strong indicator for a given area showing how vulnerable it is to flood risk and how much can be gained by implementing e.g., climate change...... adaptation measures. This study identifies and compares three different methods for estimating the EAD based on unit costs of flooding of urban assets. One of these methods was used in previous studies and calculates the EAD based on a few extreme events by assuming a log-linear relationship between cost...... of an event and the corresponding return period. This method is compared to methods that are either more complicated or require more calculations. The choice of method by which the EAD is calculated appears to be of minor importance. At all three case study areas it seems more important that there is a shift...

  19. Population variability in biological adaptive responses to DNA damage and the shapes of carcinogen dose-response curves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Conolly, Rory B.; Gaylor, David W.; Lutz, Werner K.

    2005-01-01

    Carcinogen dose-response curves for both ionizing radiation and chemicals are typically assumed to be linear at environmentally relevant doses. This assumption is used to ensure protection of the public health in the absence of relevant dose-response data. A theoretical justification for the assumption has been provided by the argument that low dose linearity is expected when an exogenous agent adds to an ongoing endogenous process. Here, we use computational modeling to evaluate (1) how two biological adaptive processes, induction of DNA repair and cell cycle checkpoint control, may affect the shapes of dose-response curves for DNA-damaging carcinogens and (2) how the resulting dose-response behaviors may vary within a population. Each model incorporating an adaptive process was capable of generating not only monotonic dose-responses but also nonmonotonic (J-shaped) and threshold responses. Monte Carlo analysis suggested that all these dose-response behaviors could coexist within a population, as the spectrum of qualitative differences arose from quantitative changes in parameter values. While this analysis is largely theoretical, it suggests that (a) accurate prediction of the qualitative form of the dose-response requires a quantitative understanding of the mechanism (b) significant uncertainty is associated with human health risk prediction in the absence of such quantitative understanding and (c) a stronger experimental and regulatory focus on biological mechanisms and interindividual variability would allow flexibility in regulatory treatment of environmental carcinogens without compromising human health

  20. Adaptation measures and pathways for flood risk in Dordrecht

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gersonius, B.; Kelder, E.; Anema, K.; van Herk, S.; Zevenbergen, C.

    2014-01-01

    In line with the Adaptive Delta Management approach of the Dutch Delta Programme, Dordrecht has developed a multi-layer safety strategy to meet the future tasking for flood risk management. This strategy puts greater emphasis on limiting the consequences of floods through spatial planning (layer 2)

  1. Preparing for local adaptation: Understanding flood risk perceptions in Pittsburgh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong-Parodi, G.; Klima, K.

    2016-12-01

    In cities such as Pittsburgh, aging and insufficient infrastructure contributes to flashfloods and numerous combined sewer overflows annually, contaminating streets, basements and waterways. Climate change is expected to further exacerbate this problem by causing more intense and more frequent extreme events in Western Pennsylvania. For a storm water adaptation plan to be implemented successfully, the City of Pittsburgh will need informed public support. One way to achieve public understanding and support is through effective communication of the risks, benefits, and uncertainties of local flooding hazards and adaptation methods. In order to develop risk communications effectively, the City and its partners will need to know what knowledge and attitudes the residents of Pittsburgh already hold about flood risks. To that end we surveyed 1,376 Pittsburgh residents on a variety of flood risk topics through an online or paper survey in Fall 2015. On balance, residents were relatively knowledgeable about storm water and see the City's current infrastructure as being inadequate to meet future risk. Moreover, they see the risk of runoff events as increasing and especially among those who live in hazardous flood areas. Residents expressed interest in having a dedicated fund to deal with runoff events. Among those queried about their willingness-to-pay, those asked to pay $15 were most interested in a dedicated fund and for green infrastructure (as opposed to gray infrastructure) in particular. Finally, while most residents favored green infrastructure in terms of its attractiveness and perceived affects on mitigating climate change many did not see it as effective at addressing flooding as gray infrastructure. We found people understand the risk and are open to doing something about it. However, more guidance and information on appropriate ways to adapt locally in terms that make sense to residents could enhance informed support for adaptation measures.

  2. Climate Science and the Responsibilities of Fossil Fuel Companies for Climate Damages and Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frumhoff, P. C.; Ekwurzel, B.

    2017-12-01

    Policymakers in several jurisdictions are now considering whether fossil fuel companies might bear some legal responsibility for climate damages and the costs of adaptation to climate change potentially traceable to the emissions from their marketed products. Here, we explore how scientific research, outreach and direct engagement with industry leaders and shareholders have informed and may continue to inform such developments. We present the results of new climate model research quantifying the contribution of carbon dioxide and methane emissions traced to individual fossil fuel companies to changes in global temperature and sea level; explore the impact of such research and outreach on both legal and broader societal consideration of company responsibility; and discuss the opportunities and challenges for scientists to engage in further work in this area.

  3. Using risk maps to link land value damage and risk as basis of flexible risk management for brownfield redevelopment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, I-chun; Ma, Hwong-wen

    2013-02-01

    Brownfield redevelopment involves numerous uncertain financial risks associated with market demand and land value. To reduce the uncertainty of the specific impact of land value and social costs, this study develops small-scale risk maps to determine the relationship between population risk (PR) and damaged land value (DLV) to facilitate flexible land reutilisation plans. This study used the spatial variability of exposure parameters in each village to develop the contaminated site-specific risk maps. In view of the combination of risk and cost, risk level that most affected land use was mainly 1.00×10(-6) to 1.00×10(-5) in this study area. Village 2 showed the potential for cost-effective conversion with contaminated land development. If the risk of remediation target was set at 5.00×10(-6), the DLV could be reduced by NT$15,005 million for the land developer. The land developer will consider the net benefit by quantifying the trade-off between the changes of land value and the cost of human health. In this study, small-scale risk maps can illuminate the economic incentive potential for contaminated site redevelopment through the adjustment of land value damage and human health risk. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Hygro thermal simulation to predict the risk of frost damage in masonry : effects of climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Aarle, M.A.P.; Schellen, H.L.; van Schijndel, A.W.M.

    2015-01-01

    According to the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) climate change will result in an increase of air temperature and rainfall intensities for the Netherlands in winter in future. In this paper we investigate the effect of the risk of frost damage to masonry. The risk of frost damage

  5. A method for assessing frost damage risk in sweet cherry orchards of South Patagonia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cittadini, E.D.; Ridder, de N.; Peri, P.L.; Keulen, van H.

    2006-01-01

    Quantification of frost damage risk is important in planning the development of new orchard areas and for decision-making on design and installation of frost control systems. The objective of this study was to develop a comprehensive method to quantify frost damage risk in different sweet cherry

  6. Adaptive coupling between damage mechanics and peridynamics: a route for objective simulation of material degradation up to complete failure

    KAUST Repository

    Han, Fei

    2016-05-17

    The objective (mesh-independent) simulation of evolving discontinuities, such as cracks, remains a challenge. Current techniques are highly complex or involve intractable computational costs, making simulations up to complete failure difficult. We propose a framework as a new route toward solving this problem that adaptively couples local-continuum damage mechanics with peridynamics to objectively simulate all the steps that lead to material failure: damage nucleation, crack formation and propagation. Local-continuum damage mechanics successfully describes the degradation related to dispersed microdefects before the formation of a macrocrack. However, when damage localizes, it suffers spurious mesh dependency, making the simulation of macrocracks challenging. On the other hand, the peridynamic theory is promising for the simulation of fractures, as it naturally allows discontinuities in the displacement field. Here, we present a hybrid local-continuum damage/peridynamic model. Local-continuum damage mechanics is used to describe “volume” damage before localization. Once localization is detected at a point, the remaining part of the energy is dissipated through an adaptive peridynamic model capable of the transition to a “surface” degradation, typically a crack. We believe that this framework, which actually mimics the real physical process of crack formation, is the first bridge between continuum damage theories and peridynamics. Two-dimensional numerical examples are used to illustrate that an objective simulation of material failure can be achieved by this method.

  7. Adaptive coupling between damage mechanics and peridynamics: a route for objective simulation of material degradation up to complete failure

    KAUST Repository

    Han, Fei; Lubineau, Gilles; Azdoud, Yan

    2016-01-01

    The objective (mesh-independent) simulation of evolving discontinuities, such as cracks, remains a challenge. Current techniques are highly complex or involve intractable computational costs, making simulations up to complete failure difficult. We propose a framework as a new route toward solving this problem that adaptively couples local-continuum damage mechanics with peridynamics to objectively simulate all the steps that lead to material failure: damage nucleation, crack formation and propagation. Local-continuum damage mechanics successfully describes the degradation related to dispersed microdefects before the formation of a macrocrack. However, when damage localizes, it suffers spurious mesh dependency, making the simulation of macrocracks challenging. On the other hand, the peridynamic theory is promising for the simulation of fractures, as it naturally allows discontinuities in the displacement field. Here, we present a hybrid local-continuum damage/peridynamic model. Local-continuum damage mechanics is used to describe “volume” damage before localization. Once localization is detected at a point, the remaining part of the energy is dissipated through an adaptive peridynamic model capable of the transition to a “surface” degradation, typically a crack. We believe that this framework, which actually mimics the real physical process of crack formation, is the first bridge between continuum damage theories and peridynamics. Two-dimensional numerical examples are used to illustrate that an objective simulation of material failure can be achieved by this method.

  8. Microdosimetric constraints on specific adaptation mechanisms to reduce DNA damage caused by ionising radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burkart, W.; Heusser, P.; Vijayalaxmi

    1990-01-01

    The protective effect of pre-exposure of lymphocytes to ionising radiation indicates the presence of 'adaptive repair' in mammalian cells. Microdosimetric considerations, however, raise some doubts on the advantage of such a cellular mechanism for specifically reducing the radiation damage caused by environmental exposures. Contrary to most chemicals which endanger the integrity of the mammalian genome, the local dose and dose rate from ionising radiation at the cellular level remain quite high, even at lowest exposures. A single electron or alpha particle passing through a cell nucleus already yields nuclear doses of up to about 3 mGy and 400 mGy, respectively. Macroscopic doses below these nuclear doses from a single event will only reduce the fraction of cell nuclei encountering the passage of a particle but not the dose or dose rate in the affected volume. At environmental doses in the range of 1 to 5 mGy per annum, the time between two consecutive hits in a specific cell nucleus is in the range of months to years. Very low concentrations of bleomycin, a drug with high affinity to DNA, also triggers an adaptive response. This points to a more general stress response mechanism which may benefit the cell even at environmental levels of radioactivity, e.g. by protecting the integrity of DNA from attacks by chemicals, by endogenous radicals, by acids from anoxia, etc. (author)

  9. Socio-hydrological modelling of floods: investigating community resilience, adaptation capacity and risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciullo, Alessio; Viglione, Alberto; Castellarin, Attilio

    2016-04-01

    Changes in flood risk occur because of changes in climate and hydrology, and in societal exposure and vulnerability. Research on change in flood risk has demonstrated that the mutual interactions and continuous feedbacks between floods and societies has to be taken into account in flood risk management. The present work builds on an existing conceptual model of an hypothetical city located in the proximity of a river, along whose floodplains the community evolves over time. The model reproduces the dynamic co-evolution of four variables: flooding, population density of the flooplain, amount of structural protection measures and memory of floods. These variables are then combined in a way to mimic the temporal change of community resilience, defined as the (inverse of the) amount of time for the community to recover from a shock, and adaptation capacity, defined as ratio between damages due to subsequent events. Also, temporal changing exposure, vulnerability and probability of flooding are also modelled, which results in a dynamically varying flood-risk. Examples are provided that show how factors such as collective memory and risk taking attitude influence the dynamics of community resilience, adaptation capacity and risk.

  10. Assessment of anosognosia in persons with frontal lobe damage: clinical utility of the Mayo-Portland Adaptability Inventory (MPAI).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murrey, G J; Hale, F M; Williams, J D

    2005-08-10

    To determine if the Mayo-Portland Adaptability Inventory (MPAI) demonstrates clinical utility in differentiating between persons with severe TBI and frontal lobe damage/anosognosia and persons with mild TBI and no frontal lobe damage. Forty-three persons with TBI and documented frontal lobe damage (mean age = 34; mean time since injury = 5.2 years) and 69 persons with mild TBI and no frontal lobe damage (mean age = 34.3; mean time since injury = 4.8 4.8 years). MPAI. Total inventory and select sub-category difference scores were significantly greater in the frontal lobe group than in the non-frontal lobe group. However, as expected, there was no significant difference between the two groups on the mobility sub-category difference scores. The MPAI appears to be potentially clinically useful in assessing for frontal lobe damage and associated anosognosia in patients with TBI.

  11. The assessment of damages due to climate change in a situation of uncertainty: the contribution of adaptation cost modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dumas, P.

    2006-01-01

    The aim of this research is to introduce new elements for the assessment of damages due to climate changes within the frame of compact models aiding the decision. Two types of methodologies are used: sequential optimisation stochastic models and simulation stochastic models using optimal assessment methods. The author first defines the damages, characterizes their different categories, and reviews the existing assessments. Notably, he makes the distinction between damages due to climate change and damages due to its rate. Then, he presents the different models used in this study, the numerical solutions, and gives a rough estimate of the importance of the considered phenomena. By introducing a new category of capital in an optimal growth model, he tries to establish a framework allowing the representation of adaptation and of its costs. He introduces inertia in macro-economical evolutions, climatic variability, detection of climate change and damages due to climate hazards

  12. Preconditioning of skeletal muscle against contraction-induced damage: the role of adaptations to oxidants in mice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McArdle, F; Spiers, S; Aldemir, H; Vasilaki, A; Beaver, A; Iwanejko, L; McArdle, A; Jackson, M J

    2004-11-15

    Adaptations of skeletal muscle following exercise are accompanied by changes in gene expression, which can result in protection against subsequent potentially damaging exercise. One cellular signal activating these adaptations may be an increased production of reactive oxygen and nitrogen species (ROS). The aim of this study was to examine the effect of a short period of non-damaging contractions on the subsequent susceptibility of muscle to contraction-induced damage and to examine the changes in gene expression that occur following the initial contraction protocol. Comparisons with changes in gene expression in cultured myotubes following treatment with a non-damaging concentration of hydrogen peroxide (H(2)O(2)) were used to identify redox-sensitive genes whose expression may be modified by the increased ROS production during contractions. Hindlimb muscles of mice were subjected to a preconditioning, non-damaging isometric contraction protocol in vivo. After 4 or 12 h, extensor digitorum longus (EDL) and soleus muscles were removed and subjected to a (normally) damaging contraction protocol in vitro. Muscles were also analysed for changes in gene expression induced by the preconditioning protocol using cDNA expression techniques. In a parallel study, C(2)C(12) myotubes were treated with a non-damaging concentration (100 microM) of H(2)O(2) and, at 4 and 12 h following treatment, myotubes were treated with a damaging concentration of H(2)O(2) (2 mM). Myotubes were analysed for changes in gene expression at 4 h following treatment with 100 microM H(2)O(2) alone. Data demonstrate that a prior period of non-damaging contractile activity resulted in significant protection of EDL and soleus muscles against a normally damaging contraction protocol 4 h later. This protection was associated with significant changes in gene expression. Prior treatment of myotubes with a non-damaging concentration of H(2)O(2) also resulted in significant protection against a damaging

  13. Assessing Vulnerabilities, Risks, and Consequences of Damage to Critical Infrastructure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suski, N.; Wuest, C.

    2011-01-01

    Since the publication of 'Critical Foundations: Protecting America's Infrastructure,' there has been a keen understanding of the complexity, interdependencies, and shared responsibility required to protect the nation's most critical assets that are essential to our way of life. The original 5 sectors defined in 1997 have grown to 18 Critical Infrastructures and Key Resources (CIKR), which are discussed in the 2009 National Infrastructure Protection Plan (NIPP) and its supporting sector-specific plans. The NIPP provides the structure for a national program dedicated to enhanced protection and resiliency of the nation's infrastructure. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) provides in-depth, multi-disciplinary assessments of threat, vulnerability, and consequence across all 18 sectors at scales ranging from specific facilities to infrastructures spanning multi-state regions, such as the Oil and Natural Gas (ONG) sector. Like many of the CIKR sectors, the ONG sector is comprised of production, processing, distribution, and storage of highly valuable and potentially dangerous commodities. Furthermore, there are significant interdependencies with other sectors, including transportation, communication, finance, and government. Understanding the potentially devastating consequences and collateral damage resulting from a terrorist attack or natural event is an important element of LLNL's infrastructure security programs. Our work began in the energy sector in the late 1990s and quickly expanded other critical infrastructure sectors. We have performed over 600 physical assessments with a particular emphasis on those sectors that utilize, store, or ship potentially hazardous materials and for whom cyber security is important. The success of our approach is based on building awareness of vulnerabilities and risks and working directly with industry partners to collectively advance infrastructure protection. This approach consists of three phases: The Pre

  14. Responding to bushfire risk: the need for transformative adaptation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O’Neill, Saffron J; Handmer, John

    2012-01-01

    The 2009 ‘Black Saturday’ bushfires led to 172 civilian deaths, and were proclaimed as one of Australia’s worst natural disasters. The Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission was set up in the wake of the fires to investigate the circumstances surrounding the death of each fatality. Here, results from an analysis undertaken for the Commission to examine the household preparedness policy ‘Prepare, Stay and Defend, or Leave Early’ (‘Stay or Go’), plus an examination of the Commission’s recommendations, are explored in the broader context of adaptation to bushfire. We find Victoria ill adapted to complex bushfire risk events like Black Saturday due to changing settlement patterns and the known vulnerabilities of populations living in fire prone areas, and increasingly in the future due to the influence of climate change extending fire seasons and their severity. We suggest that uncertainty needs to be better acknowledged and managed in fire risk situations, and that the responsibility for fire preparedness should be more justly distributed. We suggest that a transformation in adaptation is required to effectively manage complex bushfire risk events like Black Saturday, and provide four key ways in which transformation in bushfire preparedness could be achieved. (letter)

  15. Responding to bushfire risk: the need for transformative adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, Saffron J.; Handmer, John

    2012-03-01

    The 2009 ‘Black Saturday’ bushfires led to 172 civilian deaths, and were proclaimed as one of Australia’s worst natural disasters. The Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission was set up in the wake of the fires to investigate the circumstances surrounding the death of each fatality. Here, results from an analysis undertaken for the Commission to examine the household preparedness policy ‘Prepare, Stay and Defend, or Leave Early’ (‘Stay or Go’), plus an examination of the Commission’s recommendations, are explored in the broader context of adaptation to bushfire. We find Victoria ill adapted to complex bushfire risk events like Black Saturday due to changing settlement patterns and the known vulnerabilities of populations living in fire prone areas, and increasingly in the future due to the influence of climate change extending fire seasons and their severity. We suggest that uncertainty needs to be better acknowledged and managed in fire risk situations, and that the responsibility for fire preparedness should be more justly distributed. We suggest that a transformation in adaptation is required to effectively manage complex bushfire risk events like Black Saturday, and provide four key ways in which transformation in bushfire preparedness could be achieved.

  16. Managing Climate Risk. Integrating Adaptation into World Bank Group Operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Aalst, M.

    2006-08-01

    Climate change is already taking place, and further changes are inevitable. Developing countries, and particularly the poorest people in these countries, are most at risk. The impacts result not only from gradual changes in temperature and sea level but also, in particular, from increased climate variability and extremes, including more intense floods, droughts, and storms. These changes are already having major impacts on the economic performance of developing countries and on the lives and livelihoods of millions of poor people around the world. Climate change thus directly affects the World Bank Group's mission of eradicating poverty. It also puts at risk many projects in a wide range of sectors, including infrastructure, agriculture, human health, water resources, and environment. The risks include physical threats to the investments, potential underperformance, and the possibility that projects will indirectly contribute to rising vulnerability by, for example, triggering investment and settlement in high-risk areas. The way to address these concerns is not to separate climate change adaptation from other priorities but to integrate comprehensive climate risk management into development planning, programs, and projects. While there is a great need to heighten awareness of climate risk in Bank work, a large body of experience on climate risk management is already available, in analytical work, in country dialogues, and in a growing number of investment projects. This operational experience highlights the general ingredients for successful integration of climate risk management into the mainstream development agenda: getting the right sectoral departments and senior policy makers involved; incorporating risk management into economic planning; engaging a wide range of nongovernmental actors (businesses, nongovernmental organizations, communities, and so on); giving attention to regulatory issues; and choosing strategies that will pay off immediately under current

  17. Incentivising flood risk adaptation through risk based insurance premiums : Trade-offs between affordability and risk reduction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hudson, Paul F.; Botzen, W.J.W.; Feyen, L.; Aerts, Jeroen C.J.H.

    2016-01-01

    The financial incentives offered by the risk-based pricing of insurance can stimulate policyholder adaptation to flood risk while potentially conflicting with affordability. We examine the trade-off between risk reduction and affordability in a model of public-private flood insurance in France and

  18. Adapting Interpersonal Psychotherapy for Older Adults at Risk for Suicide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heisel, Marnin J.; Talbot, Nancy L.; King, Deborah A.; Tu, Xin M.; Duberstein, Paul R.

    2014-01-01

    Objective To pilot a psychological intervention adapted for older adults at-risk for suicide. Design A focused, uncontrolled, pre-to-post-treatment psychotherapy trial. All eligible participants were offered the study intervention. Setting Outpatient mental healthcare provided in the psychiatry department of an academic medical center in a mid-sized Canadian city. Participants Seventeen English-speaking adults 60 years or older, at- risk for suicide by virtue of current suicide ideation, death ideation, and/or recent self-injury. Intervention A 16-session course of Interpersonal Psychotherapy (IPT) adapted for older adults at-risk for suicide who were receiving medication and/or other standard psychiatric treatment for underlying mood disorders. Measurements Participants completed a demographics form, screens for cognitive impairment and alcohol misuse, a semi-structured diagnostic interview, and measures of primary (suicide ideation and death ideation), and secondary study outcomes (depressive symptom severity; social adjustment and support; psychological well-being), and psychotherapy process measures. Results Participants experienced significant reductions in suicide ideation, death ideation, and depressive symptom severity, and significant improvement in perceived meaning in life, social adjustment, perceived social support, and other psychological well-being variables. Conclusions Study participants experienced enhanced psychological well-being and reduced symptoms of depression and suicide ideation over the course of IPT adapted for older adults at-risk for suicide. Larger, controlled trials are needed to further evaluate the impact of this novel intervention and to test methods for translating and integrating focused interventions into standard clinical care with at-risk older adults. PMID:24840611

  19. Adapting interpersonal psychotherapy for older adults at risk for suicide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heisel, Marnin J; Talbot, Nancy L; King, Deborah A; Tu, Xin M; Duberstein, Paul R

    2015-01-01

    To pilot a psychological intervention adapted for older adults at risk for suicide. A focused, uncontrolled, pre-to-post-treatment psychotherapy trial. All eligible participants were offered the study intervention. Outpatient mental health care provided in the psychiatry department of an academic medical center in a mid-sized Canadian city. Seventeen English-speaking adults 60 years or older, at risk for suicide by virtue of current suicide ideation, death ideation, and/or recent self-injury. A 16-session course of Interpersonal Psychotherapy (IPT) adapted for older adults at risk for suicide who were receiving medication and/or other standard psychiatric treatment for underlying mood disorders. Participants completed a demographics form, screens for cognitive impairment and alcohol misuse, a semi-structured diagnostic interview, and measures of primary (suicide ideation and death ideation) and secondary study outcomes (depressive symptom severity, social adjustment and support, psychological well-being), and psychotherapy process measures. Participants experienced significant reductions in suicide ideation, death ideation, and depressive symptom severity, and significant improvement in perceived meaning in life, social adjustment, perceived social support, and other psychological well-being variables. Study participants experienced enhanced psychological well-being and reduced symptoms of depression and suicide ideation over the course of IPT adapted for older adults at risk for suicide. Larger, controlled trials are needed to further evaluate the impact of this novel intervention and to test methods for translating and integrating focused interventions into standard clinical care with at-risk older adults. Copyright © 2015 American Association for Geriatric Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Fuzzy stochastic damage mechanics (FSDM based on fuzzy auto-adaptive control theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ya-jun Wang

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available In order to fully interpret and describe damage mechanics, the origin and development of fuzzy stochastic damage mechanics were introduced based on the analysis of the harmony of damage, probability, and fuzzy membership in the interval of [0,1]. In a complete normed linear space, it was proven that a generalized damage field can be simulated through β probability distribution. Three kinds of fuzzy behaviors of damage variables were formulated and explained through analysis of the generalized uncertainty of damage variables and the establishment of a fuzzy functional expression. Corresponding fuzzy mapping distributions, namely, the half-depressed distribution, swing distribution, and combined swing distribution, which can simulate varying fuzzy evolution in diverse stochastic damage situations, were set up. Furthermore, through demonstration of the generalized probabilistic characteristics of damage variables, the cumulative distribution function and probability density function of fuzzy stochastic damage variables, which show β probability distribution, were modified according to the expansion principle. The three-dimensional fuzzy stochastic damage mechanical behaviors of the Longtan rolled-concrete dam were examined with the self-developed fuzzy stochastic damage finite element program. The statistical correlation and non-normality of random field parameters were considered comprehensively in the fuzzy stochastic damage model described in this paper. The results show that an initial damage field based on the comprehensive statistical evaluation helps to avoid many difficulties in the establishment of experiments and numerical algorithms for damage mechanics analysis.

  1. Leisure noise exposure: participation trends, symptoms of hearing damage, and perception of risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beach, Elizabeth Francis; Gilliver, Megan; Williams, Warwick

    2013-02-01

    Leisure activities that emit high noise levels have the potential to expose participants to excessive noise exposure, which can result in hearing damage. This study investigated young people's participation in high-noise leisure activities and the relationship between their leisure noise exposure, symptoms of hearing damage, and perception of risk. Participants completed an online survey relating to participation in selected high-noise leisure activities, symptoms of hearing damage, and beliefs about the risk posed by these activities. One thousand 18- to 35-year-old Australian adults completed the survey. Annual noise exposure from the five leisure activities ranged from 0-6.77 times the acceptable noise exposure, with nightclubs posing the greatest risk. Those who attended one noisy activity were more likely to attend others, in particular nightclubs, pubs, and live music events. Noise exposure was correlated with early warning signs of hearing damage and perceived risk of damage. Active young adults who engage in noisy activities are showing early signs of hearing damage. Furthermore, they perceive the risk associated with their activities. The challenge for researchers and hearing health practitioners is to convert self-perceived risk into positive hearing health behaviours for long-term hearing health.

  2. Comparing Methods of Calculating Expected Annual Damage in Urban Pluvial Flood Risk Assessments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anders Skovgård Olsen

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Estimating the expected annual damage (EAD due to flooding in an urban area is of great interest for urban water managers and other stakeholders. It is a strong indicator for a given area showing how vulnerable it is to flood risk and how much can be gained by implementing e.g., climate change adaptation measures. This study identifies and compares three different methods for estimating the EAD based on unit costs of flooding of urban assets. One of these methods was used in previous studies and calculates the EAD based on a few extreme events by assuming a log-linear relationship between cost of an event and the corresponding return period. This method is compared to methods that are either more complicated or require more calculations. The choice of method by which the EAD is calculated appears to be of minor importance. At all three case study areas it seems more important that there is a shift in the damage costs as a function of the return period. The shift occurs approximately at the 10 year return period and can perhaps be related to the design criteria for sewer systems. Further, it was tested if the EAD estimation could be simplified by assuming a single unit cost per flooded area. The results indicate that within each catchment this may be a feasible approach. However the unit costs varies substantially between different case study areas. Hence it is not feasible to develop unit costs that can be used to calculate EAD, most likely because the urban landscape is too heterogeneous.

  3. Adaptive risk management using new risk perspectives – an example from the oil and gas industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bjerga, Torbjørn; Aven, Terje

    2015-01-01

    This article discusses management of risk in the case of large uncertainties and the use of adaptive risk management in such situations. This type of management is based on the acknowledgement that one best decision cannot be made, but rather, a set of alternatives should be dynamically tracked to gain information and knowledge about the effects of different courses of action. In the article, we study a case from the oil and gas industry, the main aim being to gain insights into how adaptive risk management could be implemented when giving due attention to the knowledge and uncertainty aspects of risk. In recent years, several authors have argued for the adoption of some new types of risk perspectives, which highlight uncertainties and knowledge in the way risk is understood and measured — this article uses these perspectives as the basis for the discussion. - Highlights: • Demonstrates a new perspective on adaptive risk management. • The perspective highlights uncertainty and knowledge, not only probability. • Illustrates the perspective on an oil and gas case, which is characterized by deep uncertainties

  4. High EDSS can predict risk for upper urinary tract damage in patients with multiple sclerosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ineichen, Benjamin V; Schneider, Marc P; Hlavica, Martin; Hagenbuch, Niels; Linnebank, Michael; Kessler, Thomas M

    2018-04-01

    Neurogenic lower urinary tract dysfunction (NLUTD) is very common in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS), and it might jeopardize renal function and thereby increase mortality. Although there are well-known urodynamic risk factors for upper urinary tract damage, no clinical prediction parameters are available. We aimed to assess clinical parameters potentially predicting urodynamic risk factors for upper urinary tract damage. A consecutive series of 141 patients with MS referred from neurologists for primary neuro-urological work-up including urodynamics were prospectively evaluated. Clinical parameters taken into account were age, sex, duration, and clinical course of MS and Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS). Multivariate modeling revealed EDSS as a clinical parameter significantly associated with urodynamic risk factors for upper urinary tract damage (odds ratio = 1.34, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.06-1.71, p = 0.02). Using receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves, an EDSS of 5.0 as cutoff showed a sensitivity of 86%-87% and a specificity of 52% for at least one urodynamic risk factor for upper urinary tract damage. High EDSS is significantly associated with urodynamic risk factors for upper urinary tract damage and allows a risk-dependent stratification in daily neurological clinical practice to identify MS patients requiring further neuro-urological assessment and treatment.

  5. Adaptive pathways and coupled infrastructure: seven centuries of adaptation to water risk and the production of vulnerability in Mexico City

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beth Tellman

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Infrastructure development is central to the processes that abate and produce vulnerabilities in cities. Urban actors, especially those with power and authority, perceive and interpret vulnerability and decide when and how to adapt. When city managers use infrastructure to reduce urban risk in the complex, interconnected city system, new fragilities are introduced because of inherent system feedbacks. We trace the interactions between system dynamics and decision-making processes over 700 years of Mexico City's adaptations to water risks, focusing on the decision cycles of public infrastructure providers (in this case, government authorities. We bring together two lenses in examining this history: robustness-vulnerability trade-offs to explain the evolution of systemic risk dynamics mediated by feedback control, and adaptation pathways to focus on the evolution of decision cycles that motivate significant infrastructure investments. Drawing from historical accounts, archeological evidence, and original research on water, engineering, and cultural history, we examine adaptation pathways of humans settlement, water supply, and flood risk. Mexico City's history reveals insights that expand the theory of coupled infrastructure and lessons salient to contemporary urban risk management: (1 adapting by spatially externalizing risks can backfire: as cities expand, such risks become endogenous; (2 over time, adaptation pathways initiated to address specific risks may begin to intersect, creating complex trade-offs in risk management; and (3 city authorities are agents of risk production: even in the face of new exogenous risks (climate change, acknowledging and managing risks produced endogenously may prove more adaptive. History demonstrates that the very best solutions today may present critical challenges for tomorrow, and that collectively people have far more agency in and influence over the complex systems we live in than is often acknowledged.

  6. Risks and benefits of the interventions aimed at minimizing nuclear damage in the Chernobyl accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rossiello, L.A.; Failla, L.

    1997-01-01

    The damages that the absorption of ionizing radiation (i.r.) can cause to humans may be classified as 1) nonstochastic (somatic or deterministic) or 2) stochastic (probabilistic) , which result, for example, from high doses of i.r. absorbed after a serious nuclear accident. Though the Chernobyl case involved both kinds of damage, this paper deals only with stochastic damage risk, and confine our considerations to individuals who were directly Affected and received high i.r. doses. The purpose of this paper is to provide elements on which to base future decisions on the evacuation and return of populations affected by serious nuclear accidents. Unlike the abundant literature on the subject, and as a necessary complement thereto within the bounds of a strict synthesis, to identify the most significant parameters applicable to single individuals rather than to the population at large, and referring solely to risks of stochastic damage

  7. A risk assessment method for multi-site damage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millwater, Harry Russell, Jr.

    This research focused on developing probabilistic methods suitable for computing small probabilities of failure, e.g., 10sp{-6}, of structures subject to multi-site damage (MSD). MSD is defined as the simultaneous development of fatigue cracks at multiple sites in the same structural element such that the fatigue cracks may coalesce to form one large crack. MSD is modeled as an array of collinear cracks with random initial crack lengths with the centers of the initial cracks spaced uniformly apart. The data used was chosen to be representative of aluminum structures. The structure is considered failed whenever any two adjacent cracks link up. A fatigue computer model is developed that can accurately and efficiently grow a collinear array of arbitrary length cracks from initial size until failure. An algorithm is developed to compute the stress intensity factors of all cracks considering all interaction effects. The probability of failure of two to 100 cracks is studied. Lower bounds on the probability of failure are developed based upon the probability of the largest crack exceeding a critical crack size. The critical crack size is based on the initial crack size that will grow across the ligament when the neighboring crack has zero length. The probability is evaluated using extreme value theory. An upper bound is based on the probability of the maximum sum of initial cracks being greater than a critical crack size. A weakest link sampling approach is developed that can accurately and efficiently compute small probabilities of failure. This methodology is based on predicting the weakest link, i.e., the two cracks to link up first, for a realization of initial crack sizes, and computing the cycles-to-failure using these two cracks. Criteria to determine the weakest link are discussed. Probability results using the weakest link sampling method are compared to Monte Carlo-based benchmark results. The results indicate that very small probabilities can be computed

  8. Climate Change and Risk Management: Challenges for Insurance, Adaptation, and Loss Estimation

    OpenAIRE

    Kousky, Carolyn; Cooke, Roger

    2009-01-01

    Adapting to climate change will not only require responding to the physical effects of global warming, but will also require adapting the way we conceptualize, measure, and manage risks. Climate change is creating new risks, altering the risks we already face, and also, importantly, impacting the interdependencies between these risks. In this paper we focus on three particular phenomena of climate related risks that will require a change in our thinking about risk management: global micro-cor...

  9. Economic estimation of risk and compensation of damage from accidents in power engineering objects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lesnykh, V.V.

    1996-01-01

    Place and basic peculiarities of the task relative to compensation of damage due to accidents in the problem on technical-economical studies of the power engineering objects, including NPPs, are analyzed. Certain approaches in the task of the risk economical estimates and basic provisions of the economical damage compensation system are presented. Description of imitated and analytical approach in the task of estimating financial state is given and certain study results are presented. 11 refs., 8 figs

  10. A robust impact assessment that informs actionable climate change adaptation: future sunburn browning risk in apple.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webb, Leanne; Darbyshire, Rebecca; Erwin, Tim; Goodwin, Ian

    2017-05-01

    Climate change impact assessments are predominantly undertaken for the purpose of informing future adaptation decisions. Often, the complexity of the methodology hinders the actionable outcomes. The approach used here illustrates the importance of considering uncertainty in future climate projections, at the same time providing robust and simple to interpret information for decision-makers. By quantifying current and future exposure of Royal Gala apple to damaging temperature extremes across ten important pome fruit-growing locations in Australia, differences in impact to ripening fruit are highlighted, with, by the end of the twenty-first century, some locations maintaining no sunburn browning risk, while others potentially experiencing the risk for the majority of the January ripening period. Installation of over-tree netting can reduce the impact of sunburn browning. The benefits from employing this management option varied across the ten study locations. The two approaches explored to assist decision-makers assess this information (a) using sunburn browning risk analogues and (b) through identifying hypothetical sunburn browning risk thresholds, resulted in varying recommendations for introducing over-tree netting. These recommendations were location and future time period dependent with some sites showing no benefit for sunburn protection from nets even by the end of the twenty-first century and others already deriving benefits from employing this adaptation option. Potential best and worst cases of sunburn browning risk and its potential reduction through introduction of over-tree nets were explored. The range of results presented highlights the importance of addressing uncertainty in climate projections that result from different global climate models and possible future emission pathways.

  11. A robust impact assessment that informs actionable climate change adaptation: future sunburn browning risk in apple

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webb, Leanne; Darbyshire, Rebecca; Erwin, Tim; Goodwin, Ian

    2017-05-01

    Climate change impact assessments are predominantly undertaken for the purpose of informing future adaptation decisions. Often, the complexity of the methodology hinders the actionable outcomes. The approach used here illustrates the importance of considering uncertainty in future climate projections, at the same time providing robust and simple to interpret information for decision-makers. By quantifying current and future exposure of Royal Gala apple to damaging temperature extremes across ten important pome fruit-growing locations in Australia, differences in impact to ripening fruit are highlighted, with, by the end of the twenty-first century, some locations maintaining no sunburn browning risk, while others potentially experiencing the risk for the majority of the January ripening period. Installation of over-tree netting can reduce the impact of sunburn browning. The benefits from employing this management option varied across the ten study locations. The two approaches explored to assist decision-makers assess this information (a) using sunburn browning risk analogues and (b) through identifying hypothetical sunburn browning risk thresholds, resulted in varying recommendations for introducing over-tree netting. These recommendations were location and future time period dependent with some sites showing no benefit for sunburn protection from nets even by the end of the twenty-first century and others already deriving benefits from employing this adaptation option. Potential best and worst cases of sunburn browning risk and its potential reduction through introduction of over-tree nets were explored. The range of results presented highlights the importance of addressing uncertainty in climate projections that result from different global climate models and possible future emission pathways.

  12. Adaptive Aeroservoelastic Suppression for Aircraft Upset and Damage Conditions, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Impact Technologies, in collaboration with Tennessee State University, propose to develop and demonstrate an adaptive system identification and multi-loop control...

  13. Adaptive and Rational Anticipations in Risk Management Systems and Economy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dubois, Daniel M.; Holmberg, Stig C.

    2010-11-01

    The global financial crisis of year 2009 is explained as a result of uncoordinated risk management decisions in business firms and economic organisations. The underlying reason for this can be found in the current financial system. As the financial market has lost much of its direct coupling to the concrete economy it provides misleading information to economic decision makers at all levels. Hence, the financial system has moved from a state of moderate and slow cyclical fluctuations into a state of fast and chaotic ones. Those misleading decisions can further be described, but not explained, by help of adaptive and rational expectations from macroeconomic theory. In this context, AE, the Adaptive Expectations are related to weak passive Exo-anticipation, and RE, the Rational expectations can be related to a strong, active and design oriented anticipation. The shortcomings of conventional cures, which builds on a reactive paradigm, have already been demonstrated in economic literature and are here further underlined by help of Ashby's "Law of Requisite Variety", Weaver's distinction between systems of "Disorganized Complexity" and those of "Organized Complexity", and Klir's "Reconstructability Analysis". Anticipatory decision-making is hence here proposed as a replacement to current expectation based and passive risk management. An anticipatory model of the business cycle is presented for supporting that proposition. The model, which is an extension of the Kaldor-Kalecki model, includes both retardation and anticipation. While cybernetics with the feedback process in control system deals with an explicit goal or purpose given to a system, the anticipatory system discussed here deals with a behaviour for which the future state of the system is built by the system itself, without explicit goal. A system with weak anticipation is based on a predictive model of the system, while a system with strong anticipation builds its own future by itself. Numerical simulations on

  14. Age-related mechanical strength evolution of trabecular bone under fatigue damage for both genders: Fracture risk evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ben Kahla, Rabeb; Barkaoui, Abdelwahed; Merzouki, Tarek

    2018-05-04

    Bone tissue is a living composite material, providing mechanical and homeostatic functions, and able to constantly adapt its microstructure to changes in long term loading. This adaptation is conducted by a physiological process, known as "bone remodeling". This latter is manifested by interactions between osteoclasts and osteoblasts, and can be influenced by many local factors, via effects on bone cell differentiation and proliferation. In the current work, age and gender effects on damage rate evolution, throughout life, have been investigated using a mechanobiological finite element modeling. To achieve the aim, a mathematical model has been developed, coupling both cell activities and mechanical behavior of trabecular bone, under cyclic loadings. A series of computational simulations (ABAQUS/UMAT) has been performed on a 3D human proximal femur, allowing to investigate the effects of mechanical and biological parameters on mechanical strength of trabecular bone, in order to evaluate the fracture risk resulting from fatigue damage. The obtained results revealed that mechanical stimulus amplitude affects bone resorption and formation rates, and indicated that age and gender are major factors in bone response to the applied loadings. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. American archives and climate change: Risks and adaptation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Mazurczyk

    Full Text Available Climate change directly affects the future security of cultural resources. Cultural heritage and in particular, archives, are increasingly at risk of degradation due to climate change threats and triggers. This study evaluated present and future consequences of water-related climate change impacts using a mapping methodology to assess exposure of American archives to incompatible weather extremes. Susceptibility to climate change threats like sea level rise, storm surge, surface water flooding, and humidity, all influenced by a combination of temperature rise and increased precipitation, at a worst-case scenario were assessed for 1232 archival repositories. Results indicate that approximately 98.8% of archives are likely to be affected by at least one climate risk factor, though on average, most archives are at low risk of exposure (90% when risk factors are combined. Future storm surge plus sea level rise was likely to impact 17.7% of archival repositories with 22.1% affected by only storm surge and 4.3% affected by only sea level rise (1.8-m scenario. Fewer archives were likely to be susceptible to surface water flooding (2.4%. More than 90% of archives were estimated to have a temperature change greater than ±1 °C, with 7.5% of sites likely to change by ±10 °C, and 69.5% of archives were likely to receive at least 152 mm more rainfall by 2100 over current annual averages. In terms of sustainability, developing appropriate socio-economic planning schemes that integrate cumulative exposure of archives to future climate patterns is critically important for safeguarding society and its heritage. The outcomes from the risk assessment in this study aid in the decision-making process by promoting strategic adaptation protocols and providing administrators a way to prioritize archival management goals based on the expected severity of future climate change impacts. Keywords: Archives, Climate change, Sea level rise, Storm surge, Cultural

  16. Adaptive response in human blood lymphocytes exposed to non-ionizing radiofrequency fields: resistance to ionizing radiation-induced damage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sannino, Anna; Zeni, Olga; Romeo, Stefania; Massa, Rita; Gialanella, Giancarlo; Grossi, Gianfranco; Manti, Lorenzo; Vijayalaxmi; Scarfì, Maria Rosaria

    2014-03-01

    The aim of this preliminary investigation was to assess whether human peripheral blood lymphocytes which have been pre-exposed to non-ionizing radiofrequency fields exhibit an adaptive response (AR) by resisting the induction of genetic damage from subsequent exposure to ionizing radiation. Peripheral blood lymphocytes from four healthy donors were stimulated with phytohemagglutinin for 24 h and then exposed for 20 h to 1950 MHz radiofrequency fields (RF, adaptive dose, AD) at an average specific absorption rate of 0.3 W/kg. At 48 h, the cells were subjected to a challenge dose (CD) of 1.0 or 1.5 Gy X-irradiation (XR, challenge dose, CD). After a 72 h total culture period, cells were collected to examine the incidence of micronuclei (MN). There was a significant decrease in the number of MN in lymphocytes exposed to RF + XR (AD + CD) as compared with those subjected to XR alone (CD). These observations thus suggested a RF-induced AR and induction of resistance to subsequent damage from XR. There was variability between the donors in RF-induced AR. The data reported in our earlier investigations also indicated a similar induction of AR in human blood lymphocytes that had been pre-exposed to RF (AD) and subsequently treated with a chemical mutagen, mitomycin C (CD). Since XR and mitomycin-C induce different kinds of lesions in cellular DNA, further studies are required to understand the mechanism(s) involved in the RF-induced adaptive response.

  17. Adaptive response to DNA-damaging agents in natural Saccharomyces cerevisiae populations from "Evolution Canyon", Mt. Carmel, Israel.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriel A Lidzbarsky

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Natural populations of most organisms, especially unicellular microorganisms, are constantly exposed to harsh environmental factors which affect their growth. UV radiation is one of the most important physical parameters which influences yeast growth in nature. Here we used 46 natural strains of Saccharomyces cerevisiae isolated from several natural populations at the "Evolution Canyon" microsite (Nahal Oren, Mt. Carmel, Israel. The opposing slopes of this canyon share the same geology, soil, and macroclimate, but they differ in microclimatic conditions. The interslope differences in solar radiation (200%-800% more on the "African" slope caused the development of two distinct biomes. The south-facing slope is sunnier and has xeric, savannoid "African" environment while the north-facing slope is represented by temperate, "European" forested environment. Here we studied the phenotypic response of the S. cerevisiae strains to UVA and UVC radiations and to methyl methanesulfonate (MMS in order to evaluate the interslope effect on the strains' ability to withstand DNA-damaging agents.We exposed our strains to the different DNA-damaging agents and measured survival by counting colony forming units. The strains from the "African" slope were more resilient to both UVA and MMS than the strains from the "European" slope. In contrast, we found that there was almost no difference between strains (with similar ploidy from the opposite slopes, in their sensitivity to UVC radiation. These results suggest that the "African" strains are more adapted to higher solar radiation than the "European" strains. We also found that the tetraploids strains were more tolerant to all DNA-damaging agents than their neighboring diploid strains, which suggest that high ploidy level might be a mechanism of adaptation to high solar radiation.Our results and the results of parallel studies with several other organisms, suggest that natural selection appears to select, at a

  18. Age and metabolic risk factors associated with oxidatively damaged DNA in human peripheral blood mononuclear cells

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Løhr, Mille; Jensen, Annie; Eriksen, Louise

    2015-01-01

    Aging is associated with oxidative stress-generated damage to DNA and this could be related to metabolic disturbances. This study investigated the association between levels of oxidatively damaged DNA in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) and metabolic risk factors in 1,019 subjects, aged...... 18-93 years. DNA damage was analyzed as strand breaks by the comet assay and levels of formamidopyrimidine (FPG-) and human 8-oxoguanine DNA glycosylase 1 (hOGG1)-sensitive sites There was an association between age and levels of FPG-sensitive sites for women, but not for men. The same tendency......, cholesterol and glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c). In the group of men, there were significant positive associations between alcohol intake, HbA1c and FPG-sensitive sites in multivariate analysis. The levels of metabolic risk factors were positively associated with age, yet only few subjects fulfilled all...

  19. Climate Change Risks – Methodological Framework and Case Study of Damages from Extreme Events in Cambodia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Halsnæs, Kirsten; Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Trærup, Sara Lærke Meltofte

    2016-01-01

    Climate change imposes some special risks on Least Developed Countries, and the chapter presents a methodological framework, which can be used to assess the impacts of key assumptions related to damage costs, risks and equity implications on current and future generations. The methodological...... framework is applied to a case study of severe storms in Cambodia based on statistical information on past storm events including information about buildings damaged and victims. Despite there is limited data available on the probability of severe storm events under climate change as well on the actual...... damage costs associated with the events in the case of Cambodia, we are using the past storm events as proxy data in a sensitivity analysis. It is here demonstrated how key assumptions on future climate change, income levels of victims, and income distribution over time, reflected in discount rates...

  20. Using damage data to estimate the risk from summer convective precipitation extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schroeer, Katharina; Tye, Mari

    2017-04-01

    This study explores the potential added value from including loss and damage data to understand the risks from high-intensity short-duration convective precipitation events. Projected increases in these events are expected even in regions that are likely to become more arid. Such high intensity precipitation events can trigger hazardous flash floods, debris flows, and landslides that put people and local assets at risk. However, the assessment of local scale precipitation extremes is hampered by its high spatial and temporal variability. In addition to this, not only are extreme events rare, but such small-scale events are likely to be underreported where they do not coincide with the observation network. Reports of private loss and damage on a local administrative unit scale (LAU 2 level) are used to explore the relationship between observed rainfall events and damages reportedly related to hydro-meteorological processes. With 480 Austrian municipalities located within our south-eastern Alpine study region, the damage data are available on a much smaller scale than the available rainfall data. Precipitation is recorded daily at 185 gauges and 52% of these stations additionally deliver sub-hourly rainfall information. To obtain physically plausible information, damage and rainfall data are grouped and analyzed on a catchment scale. The data indicate that rainfall intensities are higher on days that coincide with a damage claim than on days for which no damage was reported. However, approximately one third of the damages related to hydro-meteorological hazards were claimed on days for which no rainfall was recorded at any gauge in the respective catchment. Our goal is to assess whether these events indicate potential extreme events missing in the observations. Damage always is a consequence of an asset being exposed and susceptible to a hazardous process, and naturally, many factors influence whether an extreme rainfall event causes damage. We set up a statistical

  1. Trophic complexity and the adaptive value of damage-induced plant volatiles.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ian Kaplan

    Full Text Available Indirect plant defenses are those facilitating the action of carnivores in ridding plants of their herbivorous consumers, as opposed to directly poisoning or repelling them. Of the numerous and diverse indirect defensive strategies employed by plants, inducible volatile production has garnered the most fascination among plant-insect ecologists. These volatile chemicals are emitted in response to feeding by herbivorous arthropods and serve to guide predators and parasitic wasps to their prey. Implicit in virtually all discussions of plant volatile-carnivore interactions is the premise that plants "call for help" to bodyguards that serve to boost plant fitness by limiting herbivore damage. This, by necessity, assumes a three-trophic level food chain where carnivores benefit plants, a theoretical framework that is conceptually tractable and convenient, but poorly depicts the complexity of food-web dynamics occurring in real communities. Recent work suggests that hyperparasitoids, top consumers acting from the fourth trophic level, exploit the same plant volatile cues used by third trophic level carnivores. Further, hyperparasitoids shift their foraging preferences, specifically cueing in to the odor profile of a plant being damaged by a parasitized herbivore that contains their host compared with damage from an unparasitized herbivore. If this outcome is broadly representative of plant-insect food webs at large, it suggests that damage-induced volatiles may not always be beneficial to plants with major implications for the evolution of anti-herbivore defense and manipulating plant traits to improve biological control in agricultural crops.

  2. Societal transformation and adaptation necessary to manage dynamics in flood hazard and risk mitigation (TRANS-ADAPT)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuchs, Sven; Thaler, Thomas; Bonnefond, Mathieu; Clarke, Darren; Driessen, Peter; Hegger, Dries; Gatien-Tournat, Amandine; Gralepois, Mathilde; Fournier, Marie; Mees, Heleen; Murphy, Conor; Servain-Courant, Sylvie

    2015-04-01

    Facing the challenges of climate change, this project aims to analyse and to evaluate the multiple use of flood alleviation schemes with respect to social transformation in communities exposed to flood hazards in Europe. The overall goals are: (1) the identification of indicators and parameters necessary for strategies to increase societal resilience, (2) an analysis of the institutional settings needed for societal transformation, and (3) perspectives of changing divisions of responsibilities between public and private actors necessary to arrive at more resilient societies. This proposal assesses societal transformations from the perspective of changing divisions of responsibilities between public and private actors necessary to arrive at more resilient societies. Yet each risk mitigation measure is built on a narrative of exchanges and relations between people and therefore may condition the outputs. As such, governance is done by people interacting and defining risk mitigation measures as well as climate change adaptation are therefore simultaneously both outcomes of, and productive to, public and private responsibilities. Building off current knowledge this project will focus on different dimensions of adaptation and mitigation strategies based on social, economic and institutional incentives and settings, centring on the linkages between these different dimensions and complementing existing flood risk governance arrangements. The policy dimension of adaptation, predominantly decisions on the societal admissible level of vulnerability and risk, will be evaluated by a human-environment interaction approach using multiple methods and the assessment of social capacities of stakeholders across scales. As such, the challenges of adaptation to flood risk will be tackled by converting scientific frameworks into practical assessment and policy advice. In addressing the relationship between these dimensions of adaptation on different temporal and spatial scales, this

  3. Reshaping the brain after stroke: The effect of prismatic adaptation in patients with right brain damage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crottaz-Herbette, Sonia; Fornari, Eleonora; Notter, Michael P; Bindschaedler, Claire; Manzoni, Laura; Clarke, Stephanie

    2017-09-01

    Prismatic adaptation has been repeatedly reported to alleviate neglect symptoms; in normal subjects, it was shown to enhance the representation of the left visual space within the left inferior parietal cortex. Our study aimed to determine in humans whether similar compensatory mechanisms underlie the beneficial effect of prismatic adaptation in neglect. Fifteen patients with right hemispheric lesions and 11 age-matched controls underwent a prismatic adaptation session which was preceded and followed by fMRI using a visual detection task. In patients, the prismatic adaptation session improved the accuracy of target detection in the left and central space and enhanced the representation of this visual space within the left hemisphere in parts of the temporal convexity, inferior parietal lobule and prefrontal cortex. Across patients, the increase in neuronal activation within the temporal regions correlated with performance improvements in this visual space. In control subjects, prismatic adaptation enhanced the representation of the left visual space within the left inferior parietal lobule and decreased it within the left temporal cortex. Thus, a brief exposure to prismatic adaptation enhances, both in patients and in control subjects, the competence of the left hemisphere for the left space, but the regions extended beyond the inferior parietal lobule to the temporal convexity in patients. These results suggest that the left hemisphere provides compensatory mechanisms in neglect by assuming the representation of the whole space within the ventral attentional system. The rapidity of the change suggests that the underlying mechanism relies on uncovering pre-existing synaptic connections. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Patellofemoral Instability in Children: Correlation Between Risk Factors, Injury Patterns, and Severity of Cartilage Damage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Hee Kyung; Shiraj, Sahar; Kang, Chang Ho; Anton, Christopher; Kim, Dong Hoon; Horn, Paul S

    2016-06-01

    The purpose of this study was to compare MRI findings between groups with and without patellofemoral instability and to correlate the MRI findings with the severity of patellar cartilage damage. Fifty-three children with patellofemoral instability and 53 age- and sex-matched children without patellofemoral instability (15.9 ± 2.4 years) were included. Knee MRI with T2-weighted mapping was performed. On MR images, femoral trochlear dysplasia, patellofemoral malalignment, medial retinaculum injury, and bone marrow edema were documented. The degree of patellar cartilage damage was evaluated on MR images by use of a morphologic grading scale (0-4) and on T2 maps with mean T2 values at the medial, central, and lateral facets. MRI findings were compared between the two groups. In cases of patellofemoral instability, MRI findings were correlated with the severity of cartilage damage at each region. Trochlear structure and alignment were significantly different between the two groups (Wilcoxon p patellofemoral instability, a high-riding patella was associated with central patellar cartilage damage with a higher morphologic grade and T2 value (Spearman p patellofemoral instability have significantly different trochlear structure and alignment than those who do not, and these differences are known risk factors for patellofemoral instability. However, the only risk factors or injury patterns that directly correlated with the severity of patellar cartilage damage were patella alta, medial stabilizer injury, and bone marrow edema.

  5. Transcultural adaptation of the Johns Hopkins Fall Risk Assessment Tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinez, Maria Carmen; Iwamoto, Viviane Ernesto; Latorre, Maria do Rosário Dias de Oliveira; Noronha, Adriana Moreira; Oliveira, Ana Paula de Sousa; Cardoso, Carlos Eduardo Alves; Marques, Ifigenia Augusta Braga; Vendramim, Patrícia; Lopes, Paula Cristina; Sant'Ana, Thais Helena Saes de

    2016-08-29

    to perform the transcultural adaptation and content validity analysis of the Johns Hopkins Fall Risk Assessment Tool to assess both fall risk and fall-related injury risk for hospitalized elderly in Brazil. the transcultural adaptation consisted of translating the scale to Portuguese (Brazil), back-translating it into its language of origin, establishing a consensus version, and having an expert committee verify its transcultural equivalence. Content assessment was conducted by a committee of judges, ending with the calculation of the items and scales' content validity index. Nurses tested the tool. the scale's translated version went through two evaluation rounds by the judges, based on which, the items with unsatisfactory performance were changed. The content validity index for the items was ≥80.0% and the global index 97.1%. The experimental application showed the scale is user-friendly. the scale presents valid content for the assessment of fall risk and risk of fall-related injuries and is easy to use, with the potential to contribute to the proper identification of risks and the establishment of care actions. realizar a adaptação transcultural para uso no Brasil e a avaliação da validade de conteúdo da Johns Hopkins Fall Risk Assessment Tool para avaliação de risco de quedas e de danos por quedas em pacientes adultos hospitalizados. adaptação transcultural consistiu na tradução da escala para a língua portuguesa (Brasil), retrotradução para a língua de origem, versão de consenso e análise da equivalência transcultural por um comitê de especialistas. A avaliação do conteúdo foi realizada por meio de um comitê de juízes, finalizando com o cálculo do índice de validade de conteúdo dos itens e da escala. Foi realizada a aplicação experimental do instrumento por enfermeiros. a versão traduzida da escala passou por duas rodadas de avaliação pelos juízes, a partir das quais os itens com desempenho insatisfatório foram modificados

  6. Quantifying the effect of autonomous adaptation to global river flood projections: application to future flood risk assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinoshita, Youhei; Tanoue, Masahiro; Watanabe, Satoshi; Hirabayashi, Yukiko

    2018-01-01

    This study represents the first attempt to quantify the effects of autonomous adaptation on the projection of global flood hazards and to assess future flood risk by including this effect. A vulnerability scenario, which varies according to the autonomous adaptation effect for conventional disaster mitigation efforts, was developed based on historical vulnerability values derived from flood damage records and a river inundation simulation. Coupled with general circulation model outputs and future socioeconomic scenarios, potential future flood fatalities and economic loss were estimated. By including the effect of autonomous adaptation, our multimodel ensemble estimates projected a 2.0% decrease in potential flood fatalities and an 821% increase in potential economic losses by 2100 under the highest emission scenario together with a large population increase. Vulnerability changes reduced potential flood consequences by 64%-72% in terms of potential fatalities and 28%-42% in terms of potential economic losses by 2100. Although socioeconomic changes made the greatest contribution to the potential increased consequences of future floods, about a half of the increase of potential economic losses was mitigated by autonomous adaptation. There is a clear and positive relationship between the global temperature increase from the pre-industrial level and the estimated mean potential flood economic loss, while there is a negative relationship with potential fatalities due to the autonomous adaptation effect. A bootstrapping analysis suggests a significant increase in potential flood fatalities (+5.7%) without any adaptation if the temperature increases by 1.5 °C-2.0 °C, whereas the increase in potential economic loss (+0.9%) was not significant. Our method enables the effects of autonomous adaptation and additional adaptation efforts on climate-induced hazards to be distinguished, which would be essential for the accurate estimation of the cost of adaptation to

  7. Assessment and Adaptation to Climate Change-Related Floods Risks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jongman, B.; Winsemius, H.C.; Fraser, S.; Muis, S.; Ward, P.J.

    2018-01-01

    The flooding of rivers and coastlines is the most frequent and damaging of all natural hazards. Between 1980 and 2016, total direct damages exceeded $1.6 trillion, and at least 225,000 people lost their lives. Recent events causing major economic losses include the 2011 river flooding in Thailand

  8. Blind Demodulation of Pass Band OFDMA Signals and Jamming Battle Damage Assessment Utilizing Link Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-03-27

    Access (OFDMA) signal so that jamming effectiveness can be assessed; referred to in this research as Battle Damage Assessment ( BDA ). The research extends...the 802.16 Wireless Metropolitan Area Network (MAN) OFDMA standard, and presents a novel method for performing BDA via observation of Sub Carrier (SC...interferer is also evaluated where the blind demodulator’s performance is degraded. BDA is achieved via observing SC LA modulation behavior of the

  9. Full-Scaled Advanced Systems Testbed: Ensuring Success of Adaptive Control Research Through Project Lifecycle Risk Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pavlock, Kate M.

    2011-01-01

    The National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Dryden Flight Research Center completed flight testing of adaptive controls research on the Full-Scale Advance Systems Testbed (FAST) in January of 2011. The research addressed technical challenges involved with reducing risk in an increasingly complex and dynamic national airspace. Specific challenges lie with the development of validated, multidisciplinary, integrated aircraft control design tools and techniques to enable safe flight in the presence of adverse conditions such as structural damage, control surface failures, or aerodynamic upsets. The testbed is an F-18 aircraft serving as a full-scale vehicle to test and validate adaptive flight control research and lends a significant confidence to the development, maturation, and acceptance process of incorporating adaptive control laws into follow-on research and the operational environment. The experimental systems integrated into FAST were designed to allow for flexible yet safe flight test evaluation and validation of modern adaptive control technologies and revolve around two major hardware upgrades: the modification of Production Support Flight Control Computers (PSFCC) and integration of two, fourth-generation Airborne Research Test Systems (ARTS). Post-hardware integration verification and validation provided the foundation for safe flight test of Nonlinear Dynamic Inversion and Model Reference Aircraft Control adaptive control law experiments. To ensure success of flight in terms of cost, schedule, and test results, emphasis on risk management was incorporated into early stages of design and flight test planning and continued through the execution of each flight test mission. Specific consideration was made to incorporate safety features within the hardware and software to alleviate user demands as well as into test processes and training to reduce human factor impacts to safe and successful flight test. This paper describes the research configuration

  10. Assessing climate change risks to the natural environment to facilitate cross-sectoral adaptation policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Iain

    2018-06-13

    Climate change policy requires prioritization of adaptation actions across many diverse issues. The policy agenda for the natural environment includes not only biodiversity, soils and water, but also associated human benefits through agriculture, forestry, water resources, hazard alleviation, climate regulation and amenity value. To address this broad agenda, the use of comparative risk assessment is investigated with reference to statutory requirements of the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment. Risk prioritization was defined by current adaptation progress relative to risk magnitude and implementation lead times. Use of an ecosystem approach provided insights into risk interactions, but challenges remain in quantifying ecosystem services. For all risks, indirect effects and potential systemic risks were identified from land-use change, responding to both climate and socio-economic drivers, and causing increased competition for land and water resources. Adaptation strategies enhancing natural ecosystem resilience can buffer risks and sustain ecosystem services but require improved cross-sectoral coordination and recognition of dynamic change. To facilitate this, risk assessments need to be reflexive and explicitly assess decision outcomes contingent on their riskiness and adaptability, including required levels of human intervention, influence of uncertainty and ethical dimensions. More national-scale information is also required on adaptation occurring in practice and its efficacy in moderating risks.This article is part of the theme issue 'Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'. © 2018 The Author(s).

  11. Assessing climate change risks to the natural environment to facilitate cross-sectoral adaptation policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Iain

    2018-06-01

    Climate change policy requires prioritization of adaptation actions across many diverse issues. The policy agenda for the natural environment includes not only biodiversity, soils and water, but also associated human benefits through agriculture, forestry, water resources, hazard alleviation, climate regulation and amenity value. To address this broad agenda, the use of comparative risk assessment is investigated with reference to statutory requirements of the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment. Risk prioritization was defined by current adaptation progress relative to risk magnitude and implementation lead times. Use of an ecosystem approach provided insights into risk interactions, but challenges remain in quantifying ecosystem services. For all risks, indirect effects and potential systemic risks were identified from land-use change, responding to both climate and socio-economic drivers, and causing increased competition for land and water resources. Adaptation strategies enhancing natural ecosystem resilience can buffer risks and sustain ecosystem services but require improved cross-sectoral coordination and recognition of dynamic change. To facilitate this, risk assessments need to be reflexive and explicitly assess decision outcomes contingent on their riskiness and adaptability, including required levels of human intervention, influence of uncertainty and ethical dimensions. More national-scale information is also required on adaptation occurring in practice and its efficacy in moderating risks. This article is part of the theme issue `Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

  12. Fire risk and adaptation strategies in Northern Eurasian forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shvidenko, Anatoly; Schepaschenko, Dmitry

    2013-04-01

    On-going climatic changes substantially accelerate current fire regimes in Northern Eurasian ecosystems, particularly in forests. During 1998-2012, wildfires enveloped on average ~10.5 M ha year-1 in Russia with a large annual variation (between 3 and 30 M ha) and average direct carbon emissions at ~150 Tg C year-1. Catastrophic fires, which envelope large areas, spread in usually incombustible wetlands, escape from control and provide extraordinary negative impacts on ecosystems, biodiversity, economics, infrastructure, environment, and health of population, become a typical feature of the current fire regimes. There are new evidences of correlation between catastrophic fires and large-scale climatic anomalies at a continental scale. While current climatic predictions suggest the dramatic warming (at the average at 6-7 °C for the country and up to 10-12°C in some northern continental regions), any substantial increase of summer precipitation does not expected. Increase of dryness and instability of climate will impact fire risk and severity of consequences. Current models suggest a 2-3 fold increase of the number of fires by the end of this century in the boreal zone. They predict increases of the number of catastrophic fires; a significant increase in the intensity of fire and amount of consumed fuel; synergies between different types of disturbances (outbreaks of insects, unregulated anthropogenic impacts); acceleration of composition of the gas emissions due to enhanced soil burning. If boreal forests would become a typing element, the mass mortality of trees would increase fire risk and severity. Permafrost melting and subsequent change of hydrological regimes very likely will lead to the degradation and destruction of boreal forests, as well as to the widespread irreversible replacement of forests by other underproductive vegetation types. A significant feedback between warming and escalating fire regimes is very probable in Russia and particularly in the

  13. Sun damage in ultraviolet photographs correlates with phenotypic melanoma risk factors in 12-year-old children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gamble, Ryan G; Asdigian, Nancy L; Aalborg, Jenny; Gonzalez, Victoria; Box, Neil F; Huff, Laura S; Barón, Anna E; Morelli, Joseph G; Mokrohisky, Stefan T; Crane, Lori A; Dellavalle, Robert P

    2012-10-01

    Ultraviolet (UV) photography has been used to motivate sun safety in behavioral interventions. The relationship between sun damage shown in UV photographs and melanoma risk has not been systematically investigated. To examine the relationship between severity of sun damage in UV photographs and phenotypic melanoma risk factors in children. UV, standard visible and cross-polarized photographs were recorded for 585 children. Computer software quantified sun damage. Full-body nevus counts, skin color by colorimetry, facial freckling, hair and eye color were collected in skin examinations. Demographic data were collected in telephone interviews of parents. Among 12-year-old children, sun damage shown in UV photographs correlated with phenotypic melanoma risk factors. Sun damage was greatest for children who were non-Hispanic white and those who had red hair, blue eyes, increased facial freckling, light skin and greater number of nevi (all P values photographs. Freckling was the strongest predictor of sun damage in visible and UV photographs. All other phenotypic melanoma risk factors were also predictors for the UV photographs. Differences in software algorithms used to score the photographs could produce different results. UV photographs portray more sun damage in children with higher risk for melanoma based on phenotype. Therefore sun protection interventions targeting those with greater sun damage on UV photographs will target those at higher melanoma risk. This study establishes reference ranges dermatologists can use to assess sun damage in their pediatric patients. Copyright © 2011 American Academy of Dermatology, Inc. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Communicating Climate Change Risks for Adaptation in Coastal ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Strengthening Livelihood Security and Adapting to Climate Uncertainty in Chilika Lagoon, India. Chilika is a brackish coastal lagoon and biodiversity hotspot situated in the eastern state of Orissa, India. View moreStrengthening Livelihood Security and Adapting to Climate Uncertainty in Chilika Lagoon, India ...

  15. Incentivising flood risk adaptation through ris based insurance premiums: trade-offs between affordability and risk reduction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hudson, P.G.M.B.; Botzen, W.J.W.; Feyen, L.; Aerts, J.C.J.H.

    2016-01-01

    The financial incentives offered by the risk-based pricing of insurance can stimulate policyholder adaptation to flood risk while potentially conflicting with affordability. We examine the trade-off between risk reduction and affordability in a model of public-private flood insurance in France and

  16. Review of the Shoreham Nuclear Power Station Probabilistic Risk Assessment: internal events and core damage frequency

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ilberg, D.; Shiu, K.; Hanan, N.; Anavim, E.

    1985-11-01

    A review of the Probabilistic Risk Assessment of the Shoreham Nuclear Power Station was conducted with the broad objective of evaluating its risks in relation to those identified in the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400). The scope of the review was limited to the ''front end'' part, i.e., to the evaluation of the frequencies of states in which core damage may occur. Furthermore, the review considered only internally generated accidents, consistent with the scope of the PRA. The review included an assessment of the assumptions and methods used in the Shoreham study. It also encompassed a reevaluation of the main results within the scope and general methodological framework of the Shoreham PRA, including both qualitative and quantitative analyses of accident initiators, data bases, and accident sequences which result in initiation of core damage. Specific comparisons are given between the Shoreham study, the results of the present review, and the WASH-1400 BWR, for the core damage frequency. The effect of modeling uncertainties was considered by a limited sensitivity study so as to show how the results would change if other assumptions were made. This review provides an independently assessed point value estimate of core damage frequency and describes the major contributors, by frontline systems and by accident sequences. 17 figs., 81 tabs

  17. Role of DNA damage repair capacity in radiation induced adaptive response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yuan Dexiao; Pan Yan; Zhao Meijia; Chen Honghong; Shao Cunlin

    2009-01-01

    This work was to explore γ-ray induced radioadaptive response (RAR) in Chinese hamster ovary(CHO) cell lines of different DNA damage repair capacities. CHO-9 cells and the two repair-deficient strains, EM-C11(DNA single strand break repair deficient) and XR-C1(DNA double strand break repair deficient), were irradiated with a priming dose of 0.08 Gy or 0.016 Gy. After 4 or 7 hours, they were irradiated again with a challenging dose of 1 Gy. The micronucleus induction and plating efficiency of the cells were assayed. Under 0.08 Gy priming dose and 4-h interval, just the CHO-9 cells showed RAR, while with the 7-h interval the CHO-9 and EM-C11 showed RAR, but XR-C1 did not. When the cells were pretreated with a lower priming dose of 0.016 Gy in a 4-h time interval, all the three cell lines showed RAR to subsequent 1 Gy irradiation. It can be concluded that RAR is not only related to the priming dose and time interval, but also has close dependence on the ability of DNA damage repair. (authors)

  18. High activity antioxidant enzymes protect flying-fox haemoglobin against damage: an evolutionary adaptation for flight?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reinke, N B; O'Brien, G M

    2006-11-01

    Flying-foxes are better able to defend haemoglobin against autoxidation than non-volant mammals such as sheep. When challenged with the common physiological oxidant, hydrogen peroxide, haemolysates of flying-fox red blood cells (RBC) were far less susceptible to methaemoglobin formation than sheep. Challenge with 1-acetyl-2-phenylhydrazine (APH) caused only half as much methaemoglobin formation in flying-fox as in ovine haemolysates. When intact cells were challenged with phenazine methosulfate (PMS), flying-fox RBC partially reversed the oxidant damage, and reduced methaemoglobin from 40 to 20% over 2 h incubation, while ovine methaemoglobin remained at 40%. This reflected flying-fox cells' capacity to replenish GSH fast enough that it did not deplete beyond 50%, while ovine RBC GSH was depleted to around 20%. The greater capacity of flying-foxes to defend haemoglobin against oxidant damage may be explained in part by antioxidant enzymes catalase, superoxide dismutase and cytochrome-b ( 5 ) reductase having two- to four-fold higher activity than in sheep (P foxes.

  19. Benchmarking Discount Rate in Natural Resource Damage Assessment with Risk Aversion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Desheng; Chen, Shuzhen

    2017-08-01

    Benchmarking a credible discount rate is of crucial importance in natural resource damage assessment (NRDA) and restoration evaluation. This article integrates a holistic framework of NRDA with prevailing low discount rate theory, and proposes a discount rate benchmarking decision support system based on service-specific risk aversion. The proposed approach has the flexibility of choosing appropriate discount rates for gauging long-term services, as opposed to decisions based simply on duration. It improves injury identification in NRDA since potential damages and side-effects to ecosystem services are revealed within the service-specific framework. A real embankment case study demonstrates valid implementation of the method. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  20. Dynamics of combined forest damage risks for 21st century (SRES A1B, B1)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panferov, Oleg; Merklein, Johannes; Sogachev, Andrey; Junghans, Udo; Ahrends, Bernd

    2010-05-01

    of forest ecosystems, wind loading on trees and biotic damage for several tree species and typical soil types. The damage risks a certain forest stand at a given soil results from daily combinations of air and soil temperatures, soil water characteristics, static and gust wind loads on trees with dynamic LAI and of soil texture. Some damaged stands show higher vulnerability and thus - positive feedbacks to climate forcing (Vygodskaya et al., 2007). Therefore, changes of microclimate in remaining stands after changes in forest structure are taken into account. Model output is aggregated to 30-years periods and compared to "present conditions" of 1981-2010. The results show considerable increment of both biotic and abiotic risks towards 2100 relatively to "present" caused by weak changes in precipitation and wind patterns and strong increase of mean air temperature and soil temperatures. It is shown, e.g. that the wind- damage-induced changes of structure and microclimate provide a positive feedback i.e. - increase the probability of the next damage event. The study was financed by BMBF within the frames of joint project "Decision Support System - Forest and Climate Change" (DSS-WuK) and by Grant of Ministry for Science and Culture of Lower Saxony "KLIFF". We gratefully acknowledge this support.

  1. The BER necessities: the repair of DNA damage in human-adapted bacterial pathogens.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Veen, Stijn; Tang, Christoph M

    2015-02-01

    During colonization and disease, bacterial pathogens must survive the onslaught of the host immune system. A key component of the innate immune response is the generation of reactive oxygen and nitrogen species by phagocytic cells, which target and disrupt pathogen molecules, particularly DNA, and the base excision repair (BER) pathway is the most important mechanism for the repair of such oxidative DNA damage. In this Review, we discuss how the human-specific pathogens Mycobacterium tuberculosis, Helicobacter pylori and Neisseria meningitidis have evolved specialized mechanisms of DNA repair, particularly their BER pathways, compared with model organisms such as Escherichia coli. This specialization in DNA repair is likely to reflect the distinct niches occupied by these important human pathogens in the host.

  2. A Risk-Based Approach to Shelter Resilience following Flood and Typhoon Damage in Rural Philippines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Victoria Stephenson

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The Philippines is exposed to numerous typhoons every year, each of which poses a potential threat to livelihoods, shelter, and in some cases life. Flooding caused by such events leads to extensive damage to land and buildings, and the impact on rural communities can be severe. The global community is calling for action to address and achieve disaster risk reduction for communities and people exposed to such events. Achieving this requires an understanding of the nature of the risks that flooding and typhoons pose to these communities and their homes. This paper presents the findings from a field based case study assessment of three rural settlements in the Philippines, where typhoons and associated flooding in recent years has caused significant damage to houses and livelihoods, leading to the reconstruction of homes that more often than not reproduce similar structural vulnerabilities as were there before these hazards occurred. This work presents a methodology for risk assessment of such structures profiling the flood and wind hazards and measuring physical vulnerability and the experience of communities affected. The aim of the work is to demonstrate a method for identifying risks in these communities, and seeks to address the challenge faced by practitioners of assisting communities in rebuilding their homes in more resilient ways. The work set out here contributes to the discussion about how best to enable practitioners and communities to achieve the sought for risk reduction and especially highlights the role that geoscience and engineering can have in achieving this ambition.

  3. Public perception of climate risk and adaptation in the UK: A review of the literature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea L. Taylor

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Like other countries, the United Kingdom faces the unavoidable challenge of adapting to a changing climate. However, public perceptions of the risk posed by climate change and support for adaptation policies vary between countries. This article provides a UK-specific review of climate change beliefs, risk perceptions regarding potential climate change impacts, and attitudes towards climate change adaptation. We report on differences between expert and public conceptualisations of climate change risks. We also examine the effects of psychological distancing, climate change awareness, and hazard experience on both concerns about climate change and perceptions of the weather-related risks posed by climate change. Additionally, we review the effects of emotion, agency, perceived responsibility, place attachment, personal values and uncertainty on the willingness of UK residents to support and engage with climate change adaptation. We outline the implications of these factors for climate risk communication and highlight key areas for future research.

  4. What is DNA damage? Risk of double-strand break and its individual variation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hanaoka, Fumio

    2011-01-01

    The author discusses about the title subject in an aspect of possible spreading of Fukushima radioactive substances mainly in eastern north area of Japan where carcinogenic incidence may be increased as the ionizing radiation injures the gene (DNA). At first, explained is that cancer is a disease of genes with infinitive proliferation of cells, there are systems to prevent it by repairing the damaged DNA and by other mechanisms like exclusion of cells damaged too much or killing cancer cells with immunity, and individual difference of the repairing capability exists. DNA is always damaged even under ordinary living conditions by sunlight UV ray, cosmic radiation and chemicals externally and by active oxygen species and thermal water movement internally. Concomitantly, DNA damaged by many mechanisms like deletion, dimmer formation, chemical modification of bases, single and double strand breaks is always repaired by concerned enzymes. Double-strand damage by high-energy radiation like gamma ray is quite risky because its repair sometimes accompanies error as concerned enzymes are from more multiple genes. There are many syndromes derived from gene deficit of those repairing enzymes. The diseases concerned with repair of the double-strand damage teach that fetus and infant are more sensitive to radiation than adult as their young body cells are more actively synthesizing DNA, during which, if DNA is injured by radiation, risk of repairing error is higher as the double strand break more frequently occurs. It cannot be simply said that a certain radiation dose limit is generally permissible. There is an individual difference of radiation sensitivity and a possible method to find out an individual weak to radiation is the lymphocyte screening in vitro using anticancer bleomycin which breaks the double strand. (T.T.)

  5. Tornado risk analysis at Savannah River Plant using windspeed damage thresholds and single building strike frequencies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, D.H.; McDonald, J.R.; Twisdale, L.A.

    1985-01-01

    Tornado risk analysis at the Savannah River Plant has taken a two pronged approach: (1) developing a catalogue of damage thresholds as a function of windspeed for processing buildings and other representative site structures; (2) developing a method of estimating, for each building, the probability of a tornado exceeding each damage threshold. Wind resistance of building construction at SRP varies widely depending on the function of the structure. It was recognized that all tornadoes do not necessarily seriously damage buildings, but the damage thresholds were unknown. In order to evaluate the safety of existing structures and properly design new structures, an analysis of tornado resistance was conducted by J.R. McDonald on each process building at SRP and other buildings by type. Damage estimates were catalogued for each Fujita class windspeed interval and windspeeds were catalogued as a function of increased levels of damage. Tornado single point and structure specific strike probabilities for the SRP site were determined by L.A. Twisdale using the TORRISK computer code. To calculate the structure specific strike probability, a correction factor is determined from a set of curves using building area and aspect ratio (length/width relative to north) as parameters. The structure specific probability is then the product of the correction factor and the point probability. The correction factor increases as a function of building size and windspeed. For large buildings (10 5 ft 2 ) and very intense storms (250 mph), the correction factor is equal to or greater than 4. The cumulative probability of a tornado striking any building type (process, personnel, etc.) was also calculated

  6. Uncertainty assessment of climate change adaptation using an economic pluvial flood risk framework

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhou, Qianqian; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

    2012-01-01

    It is anticipated that climate change is likely to lead to an increasing risk level of flooding in cities in northern Europe. One challenging question is how to best address the increasing flood risk and assess the costs and benefits of adapting to such changes. We established an integrated...... approach for identification and assessment of climate change adaptation options by incorporating climate change impacts, flood inundation modelling, economic tool and risk assessment and management. The framework is further extended and adapted by embedding a Monte Carlo simulation to estimate the total...

  7. Climate change beliefs, risk perceptions, and adaptation behavior among Midwestern U.S. crop farmers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amber Saylor Mase

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Global climate change presents unique challenges to the resilience of United States agriculture, and farmers and advisors must utilize effective adaptation strategies to be both economically and environmentally sustainable. This study addresses Midwestern U.S. crop farmers’ beliefs about climate change, perceived risks from weather and climate, and attitudes toward adaptation that influence their decisions to adopt adaptation strategies. Analyzing a 2012 survey of nearly 5000 corn farmers across 22 Midwestern U.S. Watersheds, we investigate the most common weather and climate risk management strategies, including purchasing additional crop insurance, implementing conservation practices, and adding new technology. U.S. farmers’ belief in anthropogenic climate change, perceptions of changing weather patterns, climate risks to their farm and attitudes toward adapting are analyzed. Farmers’ perceptions of risk to their own farm, attitudes toward innovation and adaptation attitudes were the most important determinants of adaptation. This study highlights the critical role of risk perceptions in adaptation attitudes as well as behaviors among agriculturalists. Finally, we discuss how these findings could be applied to increase uptake of adaptation strategies and thus resilience of U.S. agriculture to a changing climate.

  8. Economics and management of climate change: risks, mitigation and adaptation

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Antes, Ralf

    2008-01-01

    ... climate change poses risks to societies and companies, nor about adequate strategies to cope with these risks. Bringing together scholars from environmental economics, political science, and business management, this book describes, analyses and evaluates climate change risks and responses of societies and companies. The book c...

  9. Development of the Damage Potential resulting from Avalanche Risks, Case Study Galtür (Tyrol, Austria)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keiler, M.

    2003-04-01

    Reports on catastrophes with high damage caused by natural hazards seem to have increased in number recently. A new trend in dealing with these natural processes leads to the integration of risk into natural hazards evaluations and approaches of integral risk management. The risk resulting from natural hazards can be derived from the combination of parameters of physical processes (intensity and recurrence probability) and damage potential (probability of presence and expected damage value). Natural hazard research focuses mainly on the examination, modelling and estimation of individual geomorphological processes as well as on future developments caused by climate change. Even though damage potential has been taken into account more frequently, quantifying statements are still missing. Due to the changes of the socio-economic structures in mountain regions (urban sprawl, population growth, increased mobility and tourism) these studies are mandatory. This study presents a conceptual method that records the damage potential (probability of physical presence, evaluation of buildings) and shows the development of the damage potential resulting from avalanches since 1950. The study area is the community of Galtür, Austria. 36 percent of the existing buildings are found in officially declared avalanche hazard zones. The majority of these buildings are either agricultural or accommodation facilities. Additionally, the effects of physical planning and/or technical measures on the spatial development of the potential damage are illustrated. The results serve to improve risk determination and point out an unnoticed increase of damage potential and risk in apparently safe settlement areas.

  10. Risk-informed optimal routing of ships considering different damage scenarios and operational conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Decò, Alberto; Frangopol, Dan M.

    2013-01-01

    The aim of this paper is the development of a risk-informed decision tool for the optimal mission-oriented routing of ships. The strength of the hull is investigated by modeling the midship section with finite elements and by analyzing different damage levels depending on the propagation of plastification throughout the section. Vertical and horizontal flexural interaction is investigated. Uncertainties associated with geometry and material properties are accounted for by means of the implementation of the response surface method. Load effects are evaluated using strip theory. Reliability analysis is performed for several ship operational conditions and considering four different limit states. Then, risk is assessed by including the direct losses associated with five investigated damage states. The effects of corrosion on aged ships are included in the proposed approach. Polar representation of load effects, reliability, and direct risk are presented for a large spectrum of operational conditions. Finally, the optimal routing of ships is obtained by minimizing both the estimated time of arrival and the expected direct risk, which are clearly conflicting objectives. The optimization process provides feasible solutions belonging to the Pareto front. The proposed approach is applied to a Joint High Speed Sealift

  11. Fretting and Corrosion Damage in Taper Adapter Sleeves for Ceramic Heads: A Retrieval Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacDonald, Daniel W; Chen, Antonia F; Lee, Gwo-Chin; Klein, Gregg R; Mont, Michael A; Kurtz, Steven M; Cates, Harold E; Kraay, Matthew J; Rimnac, Clare M

    2017-09-01

    During revision surgery with a well-fixed stem, a titanium sleeve can be used in conjunction with a ceramic head to achieve better stress distribution across the taper surface. In vitro testing suggests that corrosion is not a concern in sleeved ceramic heads; however, little is known about the in vivo fretting corrosion of the sleeves. The purpose of this study was to investigate fretting corrosion in sleeved ceramic heads in retrieved total hip arthroplasties. Thirty-seven sleeved ceramic heads were collected during revision. The femoral heads and sleeves were implanted 0.0-3.3 years. The implants were revised predominantly for instability, infection, and loosening. Fifty percent of the retrievals were implanted during a primary surgery. Fretting corrosion was assessed using the Goldberg-Higgs semiquantitative scoring system. Mild-to-moderate fretting corrosion scores (score = 2-3) were observed in 92% of internal tapers, 19% of external tapers, and 78% of the stems. Severe fretting corrosion was observed in 1 stem trunnion that was previously retained during revision surgery and none of the retrieved sleeves. There was no difference in corrosion damage of sleeves used in primary or revision surgery. The fretting corrosion scores in this study were predominantly mild and lower than reported fretting scores of cobalt-chrome heads in metal-on-polyethylene bearings. Although intended for use in revisions, we found that the short-term in vivo corrosion behavior of the sleeves was similar in both primary and revision surgery applications. From an in vivo corrosion perspective, sleeves are a reasonable solution for restoring the stem taper during revision surgery. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  12. Beyond Risk and Protective Factors: An Adaptation-Based Approach to Resilience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellis, Bruce J; Bianchi, JeanMarie; Griskevicius, Vladas; Frankenhuis, Willem E

    2017-07-01

    How does repeated or chronic childhood adversity shape social and cognitive abilities? According to the prevailing deficit model, children from high-stress backgrounds are at risk for impairments in learning and behavior, and the intervention goal is to prevent, reduce, or repair the damage. Missing from this deficit approach is an attempt to leverage the unique strengths and abilities that develop in response to high-stress environments. Evolutionary-developmental models emphasize the coherent, functional changes that occur in response to stress over the life course. Research in birds, rodents, and humans suggests that developmental exposures to stress can improve forms of attention, perception, learning, memory, and problem solving that are ecologically relevant in harsh-unpredictable environments (as per the specialization hypothesis). Many of these skills and abilities, moreover, are primarily manifest in currently stressful contexts where they would provide the greatest fitness-relevant advantages (as per the sensitization hypothesis). This perspective supports an alternative adaptation-based approach to resilience that converges on a central question: "What are the attention, learning, memory, problem-solving, and decision-making strategies that are enhanced through exposures to childhood adversity?" At an applied level, this approach focuses on how we can work with, rather than against, these strengths to promote success in education, employment, and civic life.

  13. The KnowRISK project: Tools and strategies to reduce non-structural damage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sousa Oliveira, Carlos; Lopes, Mário; Mota de Sá, Francisco; Amaral Ferreia, Mónica; Candeias, Paulo; Campos Costa, Alfredo; Rupakhety, Rajesh; Meroni, Fabrizio; Azzaro, Raffaele; D'Amico, Salvatore; Langer, Horst; Musacchio, Gemma; Sousa Silva, Delta; Falsaperla, Susanna; Scarfì, Luciano; Tusa, Giuseppina; Tuvé, Tiziana

    2016-04-01

    The project KnowRISK (Know your city, Reduce seISmic risK through non-structural elements) is financed by the European Commission to develop prevention measures that may reduce non-structural damage in urban areas. Pilot areas of the project are within the three European participating countries, namely Portugal, Iceland and Italy. Non-structural components of a building include all those components that are not part of the structural system, more specifically the architectural, mechanical, electrical, and plumbing systems, as well as furniture, fixtures, equipment, and contents. Windows, partitions, granite veneer, piping, ceilings, air conditioning ducts and equipment, elevators, computer and hospital equipment, file cabinets, and retail merchandise are all examples of non-structural components that are vulnerable to earthquake damage. We will use the experience gained during past earthquakes, which struck in particular Iceland, Italy and Portugal (Azores). Securing the non-structural elements improves the safety during an earthquake and saves lives. This paper aims at identifying non-structural seismic protection measures in the pilot areas and to develop a portfolio of good practices for the most common and serious non-structural vulnerabilities. This systematic identification and the portfolio will be achieved through a "cross-knowledge" strategy based on previous researches, evidence of non-structural damage in past earthquakes. Shake table tests of a group of non-structural elements will be performed. These tests will be filmed and, jointly with portfolio, will serve as didactic supporting tools to be used in workshops with building construction stakeholders and in risk communication activities. A Practical Guide for non-structural risk reduction will be specifically prepared for citizens on the basis of the outputs of the project, taking into account the local culture and needs of each participating country.

  14. Estimating young Australian adults' risk of hearing damage from selected leisure activities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beach, Elizabeth; Williams, Warwick; Gilliver, Megan

    2013-01-01

    Several previous studies have attempted to estimate the risk of noise-induced hearing loss from loud leisure noise. Some of these studies may have overestimated the risk because they used noise estimates taken from the higher end of reported levels. The aim of the present study was to provide a realistic estimate of the number of young Australian adults who may be at risk of hearing damage and eventual hearing loss from leisure-noise exposure. Average noise levels at five high-noise leisure activities, (1) nightclubs; (2) pubs, bars, and registered clubs; (3) fitness classes; (4) live sporting events; (5) concerts and live music venues, were calculated using 108 measurements taken from a large database of leisure noise measurements. In addition, an online survey was administered to a convenience sample of 1000 young adults aged 18 to 35 years, who reported the time spent at these leisure activities and the frequency with which they undertook the activities. They also answered questions about tinnitus and their perceived risk of hearing damage. Although the survey data cannot be considered representative of the population of young Australian adults, it was weighted to this population in respect of age, gender, education, and location. The survey data and the average noise levels were used to estimate each individual's annual noise exposure, and in turn, estimate those at risk of hearing damage from leisure-noise exposure. For the majority of participants (n = 868), the accumulated leisure noise level was within the acceptable workplace limit. However, 132 participants or 14.1% (population weighted) were exposed to an annual noise dose greater than the acceptable workplace noise limit. By far, the main source of high-risk leisure noise was from nightclubs. Those with more leisure-noise exposure experienced more tinnitus and perceived themselves to be more at risk than those with lower noise exposures. It is recommended that nightclub operators reduce noise levels

  15. Uncertainty assessment of urban pluvial flood risk in a context of climate change adaptation decision making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Zhou, Qianqian

    2014-01-01

    uncertainty analysis, which can assess and quantify the overall uncertainty in relation to climate change adaptation to urban flash floods. The analysis is based on an uncertainty cascade that by means of Monte Carlo simulations of flood risk assessments incorporates climate change impacts as a key driver......There has been a significant increase in climatic extremes in many regions. In Central and Northern Europe, this has led to more frequent and more severe floods. Along with improved flood modelling technologies this has enabled development of economic assessment of climate change adaptation...... to increasing urban flood risk. Assessment of adaptation strategies often requires a comprehensive risk-based economic analysis of current risk, drivers of change of risk over time, and measures to reduce the risk. However, such studies are often associated with large uncertainties. The uncertainties arise from...

  16. Smallholder farmers’ attitudes and determinants of adaptation to climate risks in East Africa

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Shikuku, Kelvin M.; Winowiecki, Leigh; Twyman, Jennifer; Eitzinger, Anton; Perez, Juan G.; Mwongera, Caroline; Läderach, Peter

    2017-01-01

    Adapting to climate risks is central to the goal of increasing food security and enhancing resilience of farming systems in East Africa. We examined farmers’ attitudes and assessed determinants of adaptation using data from a random sample of 500 households in Borana, Ethiopia; Nyando, Kenya;

  17. Efficient prevention and compensation of catastrophic risks. The example of damage by nuclear accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vanden Borre, T.

    2001-01-01

    This book deals with the liability for damage due to catastrophic risks. The nuclear liability law serves as an example of such a catastrophic risk. The question that we tried to answer is what an efficient compensation scheme for catastrophic risks should look like. This question is dealt with both from a law and an economic point of view and from a comparative point of view. The main element in comparing the laws in different countries is the comparison between Belgian and Dutch civil (nuclear) liability law. But also American nuclear liability law is part of the analysis (the Price-Anderson Act). The book consists of four parts: (nuclear) civil liability law, legal and economic approach, analysis of other compensation systems and conclusions. The big themes in this book are therefore civil (nuclear) liability law, insurance law and environmental liability law [nl

  18. Risk prediction is improved by adding markers of subclinical organ damage to SCORE

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sehestedt, Thomas; Jeppesen, Jørgen; Hansen, Tine W

    2010-01-01

    cardiovascular, anti-diabetic, or lipid-lowering treatment, aged 41, 51, 61, or 71 years, we measured traditional cardiovascular risk factors, left ventricular (LV) mass index, atherosclerotic plaques in the carotid arteries, carotid/femoral pulse wave velocity (PWV), and urine albumin/creatinine ratio (UACR......) and followed them for a median of 12.8 years. Eighty-one subjects died because of cardiovascular causes. Risk of cardiovascular death was independently of SCORE associated with LV hypertrophy [hazard ratio (HR) 2.2 (95% CI 1.2-4.0)], plaques [HR 2.5 (1.6-4.0)], UACR > or = 90th percentile [HR 3.3 (1.......07). CONCLUSION: Subclinical organ damage predicted cardiovascular death independently of SCORE and the combination may improve risk prediction....

  19. BYSTANDER EFFECTS GENOMIC INSTABILITY, ADAPTIVE RESPONSE AND CANCER RISK ASSESSMENT FOR RADIAION AND CHEMICAL EXPOSURES

    Science.gov (United States)

    BYSTANDER EFFECTS, GENOMIC INSTABILITY, ADAPTIVE RESPONSE AND CANCER RISK ASSESSMENT FOR RADIATION AND CHEMICAL EXPOSURESR. Julian PrestonEnvironmental Carcinogenesis Division, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, N.C. 27711, USAThere ...

  20. Being Prepared for Climate Change: A Workbook for Developing Risk-Based Adaptation Plans

    Science.gov (United States)

    This workbook is a guide for environmental professionals to construct a climate change adaptation plan based on identifying risks and their consequences. It incorporates watershed management, vulnerability assessments and action planning.

  1. Flood hazards and masonry constructions: a probabilistic framework for damage, risk and resilience at urban scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Mebarki

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with the failure risk of masonry constructions under the effect of floods. It is developed within a probabilistic framework, with loads and resistances considered as random variables. Two complementary approaches have been investigated for this purpose:

    – a global approach based on combined effects of several governing parameters with individual weighted contribution (material quality and geometry, presence and distance between columns, beams, openings, resistance of the soil and its slope. . .,
    – and a reliability method using the failure mechanism of masonry walls standing out-plane pressure.

    The evolution of the probability of failure of masonry constructions according to the flood water level is analysed.

    The analysis of different failure probability scenarios for masonry walls is conducted to calibrate the influence of each "vulnerability governing parameter" in the global approach that is widely used in risk assessment at the urban or regional scale.

    The global methodology is implemented in a GIS that provides the spatial distribution of damage risk for different flood scenarios. A real case is considered for the simulations, i.e. Cheffes sur Sarthe (France, for which the observed river discharge, the hydraulic load according to the Digital Terrain Model, and the structural resistance are considered as random variables. The damage probability values provided by both approaches are compared. Discussions are also developed about reduction and mitigation of the flood disaster at various scales (set of structures, city, region as well as resilience.

  2. Chandni Singh: Raising awareness about climate risk, adaptation in ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    2015-01-08

    Jan 8, 2015 ... Chandni's PhD work on different perceptions of climate risk and how ... “Right now when you speak to a government official at the state ... Jyotiraj Patra: Investigating the use of research in disaster risk management in India.

  3. Analysis of Risk Management in Adapted Physical Education Textbooks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murphy, Kelle L.; Donovan, Jacqueline B.; Berg, Dominck A.

    2016-01-01

    Physical education teacher education (PETE) programs vary on how the topics of safe teaching and risk management are addressed. Common practices to cover such issues include requiring textbooks, lesson planning, peer teaching, videotaping, reflecting, and reading case law analyses. We used a mixed methods design to examine how risk management is…

  4. Reducing the Risk of Damage to Power Transformers of 110 kV and Above Accompanying Internal Short Circuits

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    L’vova, M. M. [JSC “R& D Center at Federal Grid Company of the Unified Power System” (Russian Federation); L’vov, S. Yu. [Presselektro LLC (Russian Federation); Komarov, V. B. [IPCE RAS (Russian Federation); Lyut’ko, E. O. [JSC “R& D Center at Federal Grid Company of the Unified Power System” (Russian Federation); Vdoviko, V. P. [EMA Ltd. (Russian Federation); Demchenko, V. V. [JSC “Boguchanskaya HPP” (Russian Federation); Belyaev, S. G. [PKF Konif Ltd. (Russian Federation); Savel’ev, V. A. [Ivanovo State Power University (Russian Federation); L’vov, M. Yu., E-mail: timashova@nte-power.ru; L’vov, Yu. N. [JSC “R& D Center at Federal Grid Company of the Unified Power System” (Russian Federation)

    2015-03-15

    Methods of increasing the operating reliability of power transformers, autotransformers and shunting reactors in order to reduce the risk of damage, which accompany internal short circuits and equipment fires and explosions, are considered.

  5. Quantification of flood risk mitigation benefits: A building-scale damage assessment through the RASOR platform.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arrighi, Chiara; Rossi, Lauro; Trasforini, Eva; Rudari, Roberto; Ferraris, Luca; Brugioni, Marcello; Franceschini, Serena; Castelli, Fabio

    2018-02-01

    Flood risk mitigation usually requires a significant investment of public resources and cost-effectiveness should be ensured. The assessment of the benefits of hydraulic works requires the quantification of (i) flood risk in absence of measures, (ii) risk in presence of mitigation works, (iii) investments to achieve acceptable residual risk. In this work a building-scale is adopted to estimate direct tangible flood losses to several building classes (e.g. residential, industrial, commercial, etc.) and respective contents, exploiting various sources of public open data in a GIS environment. The impact simulations for assigned flood hazard scenarios are computed through the RASOR platform which allows for an extensive characterization of the properties and their vulnerability through libraries of stage-damage curves. Recovery and replacement costs are estimated based on insurance data, market values and socio-economic proxies. The methodology is applied to the case study of Florence (Italy) where a system of retention basins upstream of the city is under construction to reduce flood risk. Current flood risk in the study area (70 km 2 ) is about 170 Mio euros per year without accounting for people, infrastructures, cultural heritage and vehicles at risk. The monetary investment in the retention basins is paid off in about 5 years. However, the results show that although hydraulic works are cost-effective, a significant residual risk has to be managed and the achievement of the desired level of acceptable risk would require about 1 billion euros of investments. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Psychosocial Adaptation and Depressive Manifestations in High-Risk Pregnant Women: Implications for Clinical Practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fiskin, Gamze; Kaydirak, Meltem Mecdi; Oskay, Umran Yesiltepe

    2017-02-01

    High-risk pregnancy research has focused primarily on psychological well-being. The aim is to determine psychosocial adaptation and depression levels of pregnant women who were admitted to hospital with diagnosis of high-risk pregnancy. This study was descriptive. Sampling was composed of 122 high-risk pregnant women who were hospitalized in the perinatology service of Istanbul University Medical School, Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology between January 1, 2014, and May 31, 2014, and met the study criteria. The Pregnant Introduction Form, Psychosocial Adjustment of Illness Scale-Self Report, and CES Depression Scale were used. Of high-risk pregnant women, 47% were found to have a poor level of psychosocial adaptation and 57% presented with depressive symptoms. There were statistically significant difference found between the levels of psychosocial adaptation and status of depressive manifestations. The difference between the average scores increased as the adaptation levels weaken and the pregnant women with a poor level of psychosocial adaptation showed more depressive manifestations. The results of this study indicate that, depending on the high-risk pregnancy status, pregnant women experience difficulty in adaptation to their current status and pregnant women with a poor level of psychosocial adaptation showed more depressive manifestations. Nurses should deliver care in high-risk pregnancies with the awareness of physiological needs as well the psychosocial needs of pregnant women, and information meetings should be held in order to increase the psychosocial support of their families and decrease their tendency toward depression. Nursing initiatives should be developed with further studies for the psychosocial adaptation of high-risk pregnancy and reduction of the depressive manifestations. © 2016 Sigma Theta Tau International.

  7. Private adaptation strategies and implementation in flood risk management: why people do nothing?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karagiorgos, Konstantinos; Thaler, Thomas; Maris, Fotios; Paparrizos, Spyros; Fuchs, Sven

    2015-04-01

    implementation. This paper examines the private adaptation capacity and willingness in two different catchments in the Mediterranean. The catchments Evros and Rafina in Greece were affected by flood events during the past 20 years. However, even in case of extreme events, the vulnerability of the (social) system to stress is considerably low due to social networks, economic settings as well as institutional and political factors, and consequently the speed of return to the equilibrium steady state, defined as the prevailing livelihood conditions, is fast. In other words, even if the magnitude of a hazardous event is high, the vulnerability is considerably low due to multiple compensation mechanisms installed in the Greek society, ranging from spreading risk to a larger community to governmental compensation and private donation. Therefore, ex-post recovery following an event is well-organised, and the initial systems state is re-established immediately or with only little delay. Therefore, affected citizens simply do not care much about being affected by floods, will be able to prevent those damages. There are no incentives for the affected population to react pro-active by e.g. investing in local structural protection or any other management strategy. Key words: vulnerability; private adaptation; structural protection; risk management; floods; Greece References: Bohle H-G (2001) Vulnerability and criticality: Perspectives from social geography. IHDP Update 02/2001:3-5 Chambers R (1989) Vulnerability, coping and policy. IDS Bulletin 20 (2):1-7 Field CB, Barros V, Stocker TF, Dahe Q, Dokken DJ, Plattner G-K, Ebi KL, Allen SK, Mastrandrea MD, Tignor M, Mach KJ, Midgley PM (2012) Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation. Special report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge Fuchs S (2009) Susceptibility versus resilience to mountain hazards in Austria - Paradigms of vulnerability

  8. Is adaptation or transformation needed? Active nanomaterials and risk analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuzma, Jennifer; Roberts, John Patrick

    2016-07-01

    Nanotechnology has been a key area of funding and policy for the United States and globally for the past two decades. Since nanotechnology research and development became a focus and nanoproducts began to permeate the market, scholars and scientists have been concerned about how to assess the risks that they may pose to human health and the environment. The newest generation of nanomaterials includes biomolecules that can respond to and influence their environments, and there is a need to explore whether and how existing risk-analysis frameworks are challenged by such novelty. To fill this niche, we used a modified approach of upstream oversight assessment (UOA), a subset of anticipatory governance. We first selected case studies of "active nanomaterials," that are early in research and development and designed for use in multiple sectors, and then considered them under several, key risk-analysis frameworks. We found two ways in which the cases challenge the frameworks. The first category relates to how to assess risk under a narrow framing of the term (direct health and environmental harm), and the second involves the definition of what constitutes a "risk" worthy of assessment and consideration in decision making. In light of these challenges, we propose some changes for risk analysis in the face of active nanostructures in order to improve risk governance.

  9. Confocal Adaptive Optics Imaging of Peripapillary Nerve Fiber Bundles: Implications for Glaucomatous Damage Seen on Circumpapillary OCT Scans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hood, Donald C; Chen, Monica F; Lee, Dongwon; Epstein, Benjamin; Alhadeff, Paula; Rosen, Richard B; Ritch, Robert; Dubra, Alfredo; Chui, Toco Y P

    2015-04-01

    To improve our understanding of glaucomatous damage as seen on circumpapillary disc scans obtained with frequency-domain optical coherence tomography (fdOCT), fdOCT scans were compared to images of the peripapillary retinal nerve fiber (RNF) bundles obtained with an adaptive optics-scanning light ophthalmoscope (AO-SLO). The AO-SLO images and fdOCT scans were obtained on 6 eyes of 6 patients with deep arcuate defects (5 points ≤-15 db) on 10-2 visual fields. The AO-SLO images were montaged and aligned with the fdOCT images to compare the RNF bundles seen with AO-SLO to the RNF layer thickness measured with fdOCT. All 6 eyes had an abnormally thin (1% confidence limit) RNF layer (RNFL) on fdOCT and abnormal (hyporeflective) regions of RNF bundles on AO-SLO in corresponding regions. However, regions of abnormal, but equal, RNFL thickness on fdOCT scans varied in appearance on AO-SLO images. These regions could be largely devoid of RNF bundles (5 eyes), have abnormal-appearing bundles of lower contrast (6 eyes), or have isolated areas with a few relatively normal-appearing bundles (2 eyes). There also were local variations in reflectivity of the fdOCT RNFL that corresponded to the variations in AO-SLO RNF bundle appearance. Relatively similar 10-2 defects with similar fdOCT RNFL thickness profiles can have very different degrees of RNF bundle damage as seen on fdOCT and AO-SLO. While the results point to limitations of fdOCT RNFL thickness as typically analyzed, they also illustrate the potential for improving fdOCT by attending to variations in local intensity.

  10. Comparative Risk Assessment to Inform Adaptation Priorities for the Natural Environment: Observations from the First UK Climate Change Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iain Brown

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment can potentially provide an objective framework to synthesise and prioritise climate change risks to inform adaptation policy. However, there are significant challenges in the application of comparative risk assessment procedures to climate change, particularly for the natural environment. These challenges are evaluated with particular reference to the first statutory Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA and evidence review procedures used to guide policy for the UK government. More progress was achieved on risk identification, screening and prioritisation compared to risk quantification. This was due to the inherent complexity and interdependence of ecological risks and their interaction with socio-economic drivers as well as a climate change. Robust strategies to manage risk were identified as those that coordinate organisational resources to enhance ecosystem resilience, and to accommodate inevitable change, rather than to meet specific species or habitats targets. The assessment also highlighted subjective and contextual components of risk appraisal including ethical issues regarding the level of human intervention in the natural environment and the proposed outcomes of any intervention. This suggests that goals for risk assessment need to be more clearly explicated and assumptions on tolerable risk declared as a primer for further dialogue on expectations for managed outcomes. Ecosystem-based adaptation may mean that traditional habitats and species conservation goals and existing regulatory frameworks no longer provide the best guide for long-term risk management thereby challenging the viability of some existing practices.

  11. Facilitators and Challenges in Psychosocial Adaptation to Being at Increased Familial Risk of Breast Cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heiniger, Louise; Price, Melanie A; Charles, Margaret; Butow, Phyllis N

    2015-12-01

    Little is known about the process of psychosocial adaptation to familial risk in tested and untested individuals at increased familial risk of cancer. This paper presents findings from a qualitative study of 36 women participating in the Kathleen Cuningham Consortium for Research into Familial Breast cancer (kConFab) Psychosocial study. Facilitators and challenges in psychosocial adaptation were identified through semi-structured interviews. The women, who were either tested (carriers or non-carriers of breast cancer susceptibility mutations) or untested (ineligible for testing or eligible but delayed or declined testing), described personal, support network and healthcare characteristics that impacted on the adaptation process. Challenges in one domain could be overcome by facilitators in other domains and key differences relating to whether women had undergone testing, or not, were identified. Tested and untested women with an increased familial risk of breast cancer may benefit from support tailored to their mutation testing status in order to enhance adaptation.

  12. Is adaptation or transformation needed? Active nanomaterials and risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuzma, Jennifer; Roberts, John Patrick

    2016-01-01

    Nanotechnology has been a key area of funding and policy for the United States and globally for the past two decades. Since nanotechnology research and development became a focus and nanoproducts began to permeate the market, scholars and scientists have been concerned about how to assess the risks that they may pose to human health and the environment. The newest generation of nanomaterials includes biomolecules that can respond to and influence their environments, and there is a need to explore whether and how existing risk-analysis frameworks are challenged by such novelty. To fill this niche, we used a modified approach of upstream oversight assessment (UOA), a subset of anticipatory governance. We first selected case studies of “active nanomaterials,” that are early in research and development and designed for use in multiple sectors, and then considered them under several, key risk-analysis frameworks. We found two ways in which the cases challenge the frameworks. The first category relates to how to assess risk under a narrow framing of the term (direct health and environmental harm), and the second involves the definition of what constitutes a “risk” worthy of assessment and consideration in decision making. In light of these challenges, we propose some changes for risk analysis in the face of active nanostructures in order to improve risk governance.

  13. Is adaptation or transformation needed? Active nanomaterials and risk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kuzma, Jennifer, E-mail: jkuzma@ncsu.edu [North Carolina State University, School of Public and International Affairs and Genetic Engineering and Society Center (United States); Roberts, John Patrick [North Carolina State University, School of Public and International Affairs (United States)

    2016-07-15

    Nanotechnology has been a key area of funding and policy for the United States and globally for the past two decades. Since nanotechnology research and development became a focus and nanoproducts began to permeate the market, scholars and scientists have been concerned about how to assess the risks that they may pose to human health and the environment. The newest generation of nanomaterials includes biomolecules that can respond to and influence their environments, and there is a need to explore whether and how existing risk-analysis frameworks are challenged by such novelty. To fill this niche, we used a modified approach of upstream oversight assessment (UOA), a subset of anticipatory governance. We first selected case studies of “active nanomaterials,” that are early in research and development and designed for use in multiple sectors, and then considered them under several, key risk-analysis frameworks. We found two ways in which the cases challenge the frameworks. The first category relates to how to assess risk under a narrow framing of the term (direct health and environmental harm), and the second involves the definition of what constitutes a “risk” worthy of assessment and consideration in decision making. In light of these challenges, we propose some changes for risk analysis in the face of active nanostructures in order to improve risk governance.

  14. Cerebral Damage May Be the Primary Risk Factor for Visual Impairment in Preschool Children Born Extremely Premature

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Slidsborg, Carina; Bangsgaard, Regitze; Fledelius, Hans Callø

    2012-01-01

    OBJECTIVES To investigate the importance of cerebral damage and retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) for visual impairment in preschool children born extremely premature and to determine the primary risk factor of the two. METHODS A clinical follow-up study of a Danish national cohort of children born......, 3.0-25.2; P visual impairment in children born extremely premature, and cerebral damage may be the primary risk...... participants were identified through the National Birth Register and invited to participate in a clinical examination. The children were evaluated with regard to visual acuity, foveal sequelae, and maximum ROP stage and the presence of global developmental deficits (an indicator for cerebral damage...

  15. Electricity and risk of public health center had measles vaccine damage in Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anggita Bunga Anggraini

    2016-03-01

    related to PHC hadmeasles damage vaccines.Methods: The analysis used a part of the data of Research Health Facilities (Rifaskes in 2011. The Rifaskeswas conducted in all health centers in all (33 provinces in Indonesia. Furthermore, this analysis uses dataonly health center in the province who have measles immunization coverage the national prevalence rate(81.6% or more, and health centers that have measles prevalence rate above the national prevalence rate(1.18% or more. Statistical data analysis performed using logistic regression analysis to determine someof the risk factors related to the health center had has measles vaccine damaged.Results: A number of 7 provinces (Riau, Jakarta, West Nusa Tenggara, East Nusa Tenggara, CentralSulawesi, South Sulawesi, Gorontalo with 1259 PHC met the inclusion criteria. Health centers locatedin rural areas compared with urban areas had 3.4-fold risk of a PHC that had measles damage vaccines[adjusted odds ratio (ORa = 3.37; 95% confidence interval (CI = 1.34 - 8.26]. Furthermore, the healthcenter with the availability of the electricity for less than 24 hours compared with available 24 hours had2.1-fold risk of PHC that had measles damage vaccines (ORa = 2.10; 95% CI = 1.02 - 4.33.Conclusion: Public health center in rural areas, or did not have not have commercial electric power, ordid not have the availability of day-to-day electricity less than 24 hours had more risk of a PHC that hadmeasles damage vaccines. (Health Science Journal of Indonesia 2015;6:116-20Keywords: measles, public health center, vaccine

  16. Adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broom, Donald M

    2006-01-01

    The term adaptation is used in biology in three different ways. It may refer to changes which occur at the cell and organ level, or at the individual level, or at the level of gene action and evolutionary processes. Adaptation by cells, especially nerve cells helps in: communication within the body, the distinguishing of stimuli, the avoidance of overload and the conservation of energy. The time course and complexity of these mechanisms varies. Adaptive characters of organisms, including adaptive behaviours, increase fitness so this adaptation is evolutionary. The major part of this paper concerns adaptation by individuals and its relationships to welfare. In complex animals, feed forward control is widely used. Individuals predict problems and adapt by acting before the environmental effect is substantial. Much of adaptation involves brain control and animals have a set of needs, located in the brain and acting largely via motivational mechanisms, to regulate life. Needs may be for resources but are also for actions and stimuli which are part of the mechanism which has evolved to obtain the resources. Hence pigs do not just need food but need to be able to carry out actions like rooting in earth or manipulating materials which are part of foraging behaviour. The welfare of an individual is its state as regards its attempts to cope with its environment. This state includes various adaptive mechanisms including feelings and those which cope with disease. The part of welfare which is concerned with coping with pathology is health. Disease, which implies some significant effect of pathology, always results in poor welfare. Welfare varies over a range from very good, when adaptation is effective and there are feelings of pleasure or contentment, to very poor. A key point concerning the concept of individual adaptation in relation to welfare is that welfare may be good or poor while adaptation is occurring. Some adaptation is very easy and energetically cheap and

  17. Mitigation of fire damage and escalation by fireproofing: A risk-based strategy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tugnoli, Alessandro; Cozzani, Valerio; Di Padova, Annamaria; Barbaresi, Tiziana; Tallone, Fabrizio

    2012-01-01

    Passive fire protection by the application of fireproofing materials is a crucial safety barrier in the prevention of the escalation of fire scenarios. Fireproofing improves the capacity of process items and of support structures to maintain their structural integrity during a fire, preventing or at least delaying the collapse of structural elements. Maintenance and cost issues require, however, to apply such protection only where an actual risk of severe fire scenarios is present. Available methodologies for fireproofing application in on-shore installation do not consider the effect of jet-fires. In the present study, a risk-based methodology aimed at the protection from both pool fire and jet fire escalation was developed. The procedure addresses both the prevention of domino effect and the mitigation of asset damage due to the primary fire scenario. The method is mainly oriented to early design application, allowing the identification of fireproofing zones in the initial phases of lay-out definition.

  18. The external costs of low probability-high consequence events: Ex ante damages and lay risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krupnick, A.J.; Markandya, A.; Nickell, E.

    1994-01-01

    This paper provides an analytical basis for characterizing key differences between two perspectives on how to estimate the expected damages of low probability - high consequence events. One perspective is the conventional method used in the U.S.-EC fuel cycle reports [e.g., ORNL/RFF (1994a,b]. This paper articulates another perspective, using economic theory. The paper makes a strong case for considering this, approach as an alternative, or at least as a complement, to the conventional approach. This alternative approach is an important area for future research. I Interest has been growing worldwide in embedding the external costs of productive activities, particularly the fuel cycles resulting in electricity generation, into prices. In any attempt to internalize these costs, one must take into account explicitly the remote but real possibilities of accidents and the wide gap between lay perceptions and expert assessments of such risks. In our fuel cycle analyses, we estimate damages and benefits' by simply monetizing expected consequences, based on pollution dispersion models, exposure-response functions, and valuation functions. For accidents, such as mining and transportation accidents, natural gas pipeline accidents, and oil barge accidents, we use historical data to estimate the rates of these accidents. For extremely severe accidents--such as severe nuclear reactor accidents and catastrophic oil tanker spills--events are extremely rare and they do not offer a sufficient sample size to estimate their probabilities based on past occurrences. In those cases the conventional approach is to rely on expert judgments about both the probability of the consequences and their magnitude. As an example of standard practice, which we term here an expert expected damage (EED) approach to estimating damages, consider how evacuation costs are estimated in the nuclear fuel cycle report

  19. The external costs of low probability-high consequence events: Ex ante damages and lay risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Krupnick, A J; Markandya, A; Nickell, E

    1994-07-01

    This paper provides an analytical basis for characterizing key differences between two perspectives on how to estimate the expected damages of low probability - high consequence events. One perspective is the conventional method used in the U.S.-EC fuel cycle reports [e.g., ORNL/RFF (1994a,b]. This paper articulates another perspective, using economic theory. The paper makes a strong case for considering this, approach as an alternative, or at least as a complement, to the conventional approach. This alternative approach is an important area for future research. I Interest has been growing worldwide in embedding the external costs of productive activities, particularly the fuel cycles resulting in electricity generation, into prices. In any attempt to internalize these costs, one must take into account explicitly the remote but real possibilities of accidents and the wide gap between lay perceptions and expert assessments of such risks. In our fuel cycle analyses, we estimate damages and benefits' by simply monetizing expected consequences, based on pollution dispersion models, exposure-response functions, and valuation functions. For accidents, such as mining and transportation accidents, natural gas pipeline accidents, and oil barge accidents, we use historical data to estimate the rates of these accidents. For extremely severe accidents--such as severe nuclear reactor accidents and catastrophic oil tanker spills--events are extremely rare and they do not offer a sufficient sample size to estimate their probabilities based on past occurrences. In those cases the conventional approach is to rely on expert judgments about both the probability of the consequences and their magnitude. As an example of standard practice, which we term here an expert expected damage (EED) approach to estimating damages, consider how evacuation costs are estimated in the nuclear fuel cycle report.

  20. Land Use Adaptation to Climate Change: Economic Damages from Land-Falling Hurricanes in the Atlantic and Gulf States of the USA, 1900–2005

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Asim Zia

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Global climate change, especially the phenomena of global warming, is expected to increase the intensity of land-falling hurricanes. Societal adaptation is needed to reduce vulnerability from increasingly intense hurricanes. This study quantifies the adaptation effects of potentially policy driven caps on housing densities and agricultural cover in coastal (and adjacent inland areas vulnerable to hurricane damages in the Atlantic and Gulf Coastal regions of the U.S. Time series regressions, especially Prais-Winston and Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA models, are estimated to forecast the economic impacts of hurricanes of varying intensity, given that various patterns of land use emerge in the Atlantic and Gulf coastal states of the U.S. The Prais-Winston and ARMA models use observed time series data from 1900 to 2005 for inflation adjusted hurricane damages and socio-economic and land-use data in the coastal or inland regions where hurricanes caused those damages. The results from this study provide evidence that increases in housing density and agricultural cover cause significant rise in the de-trended inflation-adjusted damages. Further, higher intensity and frequency of land-falling hurricanes also significantly increase the economic damages. The evidence from this study implies that a medium to long term land use adaptation in the form of capping housing density and agricultural cover in the coastal (and adjacent inland states can significantly reduce economic damages from intense hurricanes. Future studies must compare the benefits of such land use adaptation policies against the costs of development controls implied in housing density caps and agricultural land cover reductions.

  1. Adaptation to climate change related risks in Dutch urban areas: stimuli and barriers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Runhaar, H.A.C.; Mees, H.L.P.; Wardekker, J.A.; Sluijs, J.P. van der; Driessen, P.P.J.

    Climate change is associated with various risks, such as flooding and heat stress. So far, most research has concentrated on the identification and quantification of these risks as well as the development of adaptation measures. Yet much less is known about how planners actually perceive and deal

  2. Identifying Students at Risk: An Examination of Computer-Adaptive Measures and Latent Class Growth Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keller-Margulis, Milena; McQuillin, Samuel D.; Castañeda, Juan Javier; Ochs, Sarah; Jones, John H.

    2018-01-01

    Multitiered systems of support depend on screening technology to identify students at risk. The purpose of this study was to examine the use of a computer-adaptive test and latent class growth analysis (LCGA) to identify students at risk in reading with focus on the use of this methodology to characterize student performance in screening.…

  3. Assessing frost damages using dynamic models in walnut trees: exposure rather than vulnerability controls frost risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guillaume, Charrier; Isabelle, Chuine; Marc, Bonhomme; Thierry, Améglio

    2018-05-01

    Frost damages develop when exposure overtakes frost vulnerability. Frost risk assessment therefore needs dynamic simulation of frost hardiness using temperature and photoperiod in interaction with developmental stage. Two models, including or not the effect of photoperiod, were calibrated using five years of frost hardiness monitoring (2007-2012), in two locations (low and high elevation) for three walnut genotypes with contrasted phenology and maximum hardiness (Juglans regia cv Franquette, J. regia × nigra 'Early' and 'Late'). The photothermal model predicted more accurate values for all genotypes (efficiency = 0.879; Root Mean Standard Error Predicted (RMSEP) = 2.55 °C) than the thermal model (efficiency = 0.801; RMSEP = 3.24 °C). Predicted frost damages were strongly correlated to minimum temperature of the freezing events (ρ = -0.983) rather than actual frost hardiness (ρ = -0.515), or ratio of phenological stage completion (ρ = 0.336). Higher frost risks are consequently predicted during winter, at high elevation, whereas spring is only risky at low elevation in early genotypes exhibiting faster dehardening rate. However, early frost damages, although of lower value, may negatively affect fruit production the subsequent year (R 2  = 0.381, P = 0.057). These results highlight the interacting pattern between frost exposure and vulnerability at different scales and the necessity of intra-organ studies to understand the time course of frost vulnerability in flower buds along the winter. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  4. Risk in Nuclear Industry. Liability for Nuclear Damage. Status of the Problem in the Russian Federation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kovalevich, Oleg M.; Gavrilov, Sergey D.; Voronov, Dmitry B.

    2001-01-01

    Russia is one of a few nuclear power states obtaining the whole number of nuclear fuel cycle (NFC) components - from mining of uranium and on-site electricity production, from NPP spent nuclear fuel processing and extracted fissile materials and radionuclides, which are available in industry, in medicine and in other relevant areas, to radioactive waste processing and disposal. For this reason it is very important to solve the problem of nuclear fuel cycle safety as it is a single system task with an adequate approach for all cycle components. The problem is that NFC facilities are technologically various and refer to different industries (mining, machinery engineering, power engineering, chemistry, etc.). Besides, the above facilities need the development of various scientific bases. The most NFC facilities is directly connected with peaceful use of nuclear energy and with military nuclear industry, as the defense orders stimulated the development of NFC. The specific attention to safety problems at the beginning of nuclear complex foundation adversely affected the state attitude towards the risk in nuclear industry, it has left the traces at present. In our paper we touch upon the problems of risk and the liability for nuclear damage for the third persons. The problems of nuclear damage compensation for nuclear facilities personnel and for the owners (operating organizations) are beyond our subject

  5. Oxytetracycline induces DNA damage and epigenetic changes: a possible risk for human and animal health?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallo, Adriana; Landi, Rosaria; Rubino, Valentina; Di Cerbo, Alessandro; Giovazzino, Angela; Palatucci, Anna Teresa; Centenaro, Sara; Guidetti, Gianandrea; Canello, Sergio; Cortese, Laura; Ruggiero, Giuseppina; Alessandrini, Andrea; Terrazzano, Giuseppe

    2017-01-01

    Oxytetracycline (OTC), which is largely employed in zootechnical and veterinary practices to ensure wellness of farmed animals, is partially absorbed within the gastrointestinal tract depositing in several tissues. Therefore, the potential OTC toxicity is relevant when considering the putative risk derived by the entry and accumulation of such drug in human and pet food chain supply. Despite scientific literature highlights several OTC-dependent toxic effects on human and animal health, the molecular mechanisms of such toxicity are still poorly understood. Here, we evaluated DNA damages and epigenetic alterations by quantitative reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction, quantitative polymerase chain reaction, chromatin immuno-precipitation and Western blot analysis. We observed that human peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) expressed DNA damage features (activation of ATM and p53, phosphorylation of H2AX and modifications of histone H3 methylation of lysine K4 in the chromatin) after the in vitro exposure to OTC. These changes are linked to a robust inflammatory response indicated by an increased expression of Interferon (IFN)- γ and type 1 superoxide dismutase (SOD1). Our data reveal an unexpected biological in vitro activity of OTC able to modify DNA and chromatin in cultured human PBMC. In this regard, OTC presence in foods of animal origin could represent a potential risk for both the human and animal health.

  6. Adaptation in Europe. Addressing risks and opportunities from climate change in the context of socio-economic developments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Isoard, S. [EEA (Denmark); Winograd, M. [Alterra (Netherlands)

    2013-04-15

    The 'Adaptation in Europe' report describes the policies and some of the measures taken at EU level and by European countries. So far half of the 32 EEA member countries have plans for adaptation, and some have started to take action, although all countries still have a lot of work to do. While global mitigation efforts should continue to aim to limit global temperature increases to 2 deg. C, the report states that it is necessary to prepare for a greater range of temperature increases and other climate changes. This is needed to properly account for the many uncertainties in climatic and socio-economic projections. The report recommends a combination of different measures - 'grey' measures such as technological and engineering projects, 'green' ecosystem-based approaches using nature, and so-called 'soft' measures such as policies to change governance approaches. The most effective adaptation projects often combine two or more different approaches, the report says. For example, adaptation on France's Mediterranean coast uses an integrated approach considering climate change, tourism, transport and biodiversity. In urban areas green spaces and water bodies work together with building design to reduce heatwave risks. Barcelona has also started to adapt to water shortages with a new highly efficient desalination plant. This 'grey' project works in tandem with other 'soft' initiatives such as incentives to reduce water consumption, reducing the impacts from prolonged droughts. While the cost of adaptation may be high in some cases, the report emphasises the overall savings from some adaptation actions. One of the largest ecosystem-based adaptation projects is restoring the Danube river basin to its previously natural state. Although it will cost an estimated Euro 183 million, it should help prevent flooding such as the 2005 event which alone cost Euro 396 million in damages. Early warning systems to help

  7. Adaptation in Europe. Addressing risks and opportunities from climate change in the context of socio-economic developments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Isoard, S. [EEA (Denmark); Winograd, M. [Alterra (Netherlands)

    2013-04-15

    The 'Adaptation in Europe' report describes the policies and some of the measures taken at EU level and by European countries. So far half of the 32 EEA member countries have plans for adaptation, and some have started to take action, although all countries still have a lot of work to do. While global mitigation efforts should continue to aim to limit global temperature increases to 2 deg. C, the report states that it is necessary to prepare for a greater range of temperature increases and other climate changes. This is needed to properly account for the many uncertainties in climatic and socio-economic projections. The report recommends a combination of different measures - 'grey' measures such as technological and engineering projects, 'green' ecosystem-based approaches using nature, and so-called 'soft' measures such as policies to change governance approaches. The most effective adaptation projects often combine two or more different approaches, the report says. For example, adaptation on France's Mediterranean coast uses an integrated approach considering climate change, tourism, transport and biodiversity. In urban areas green spaces and water bodies work together with building design to reduce heatwave risks. Barcelona has also started to adapt to water shortages with a new highly efficient desalination plant. This 'grey' project works in tandem with other 'soft' initiatives such as incentives to reduce water consumption, reducing the impacts from prolonged droughts. While the cost of adaptation may be high in some cases, the report emphasises the overall savings from some adaptation actions. One of the largest ecosystem-based adaptation projects is restoring the Danube river basin to its previously natural state. Although it will cost an estimated Euro 183 million, it should help prevent flooding such as the 2005 event which alone cost Euro 396 million in damages. Early warning systems to help predict forest fires, floods and droughts have been set up in

  8. Framework for economic pluvial flood risk assessment considering climate change effects and adaptation benefits

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhou, Qianqian; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen; Halsnæs, Kirsten

    2012-01-01

    Climate change is likely to affect the water cycle by influencing the precipitation patterns. It is important to integrate the anticipated changes into the design of urban drainage in response to the increased risk level in cities. This paper presents a pluvial flood risk assessment framework...... to identify and assess adaptation options in the urban context. An integrated approach is adopted by incorporating climate change impact assessment, flood inundation modeling, economic tool, and risk assessment, hereby developing a step-by-step process for cost-benefit assessment of climate change adaptation...

  9. Human Lung Cancer Risks from Radon – Part II – Influence from Combined Adaptive Response and Bystander Effects – A Microdose Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonard, Bobby E.; Thompson, Richard E.; Beecher, Georgia C.

    2010-01-01

    In the prior Part I, the potential influence of the low level alpha radiation induced bystander effect (BE) on human lung cancer risks was examined. Recent analysis of adaptive response (AR) research results with a Microdose Model has shown that single low LET radiation induced charged particles traversals through the cell nucleus activates AR. We have here conducted an analysis based on what is presently known about adaptive response and the bystander effect (BE) and what new research is needed that can assist in the further evaluation human cancer risks from radon. We find that, at the UNSCEAR (2000) worldwide average human exposures from natural background and man-made radiations, the human lung receives about a 25% adaptive response protection against the radon alpha bystander damage. At the UNSCEAR (2000) minimum range of background exposure levels, the lung receives minimal AR protection but at higher background levels, in the high UNSCEAR (2000) range, the lung receives essentially 100% protection from both the radon alpha damage and also the endogenic, spontaneously occurring, potentially carcinogenic, lung cellular damage. PMID:22461760

  10. Adaptation

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    building skills, knowledge or networks on adaptation, ... the African partners leading the AfricaAdapt network, together with the UK-based Institute of Development Studies; and ... UNCCD Secretariat, Regional Coordination Unit for Africa, Tunis, Tunisia .... 26 Rural–urban Cooperation on Water Management in the Context of.

  11. Climate change risks and adaptation options across Australian seafood supply chains – A preliminary assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Fleming

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is already impacting the biology of the oceans and some dependent industries are in turn responding to these impacts. The development of response options for users of marine resources, such as fishers, is important in guiding adaptation efforts. However, harvesting fish is only the first step in a supply chain that delivers seafood to consumers. Impacts higher up the chain have seldom been considered in fisheries-climate research yet an understanding of these impacts and how climate risks and adaptation information are interpreted and used by stakeholders across the chain is vital for developing viable and sustainable adaptation options. We examined stakeholder perceptions of points where climate change impacts and adaptations currently occur, or may occur in the future, across the supply chains of several Australian fisheries (southern rock lobster, tropical rock lobster, prawn and aquaculture sectors (oyster, aquaculture prawn. We found that climate change impacts are well understood at the harvest stage and there is evidence of potential impacts and disruption to supply chains. Yet, there currently is no strong driver for change higher up the chain. Holistic adaptation planning along the supply chain, underpinned by targeted information and policy for the catch, processing and distribution, and marketing phases is needed. This effort is needed now, as some adaptation options have long lead times, and a delay in adaptation planning may limit future options. Given potential lead times and associated uncertainty, a risk-based approach is recommended with regard to adaptation planning for Australia’s seafood sector.

  12. Coastal community resilience in climate adaptation and risk reduction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomsen, Mie; Sørensen, Carlo Sass

    that neither the community nor the municipality perceives floods as any immediate threat. Municipal adaptation planning is slowly forming but hitherto without engaging the local community, and the town has no formal emergency preparedness plan. In contrast, the medieval town of Løgstør last experienced severe......, have different resilience strengths and limitations inherent. Thyborøn emerged over the past century as a fisheries town protected from the North Sea by large sea dikes constructed by the national government. Life in a harsh physical environment and no significant flood accounts in decades, means...... floods in 1981 and 2005 which led to the construction of a sea wall, community involvement, and detailed emergency management setup. The Thyborøn community has a reputation of ‘acting on their own’ and the citizens do not –neither individually nor collectively, ask e.g., the municipality for assistance...

  13. Human Lung Cancer Risks from Radon – Part III - Evidence of Influence of Combined Bystander and Adaptive Response Effects on Radon Case-Control Studies - A Microdose Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonard, Bobby E.; Thompson, Richard E.; Beecher, Georgia C.

    2012-01-01

    Since the publication of the BEIR VI (1999) report on health risks from radon, a significant amount of new data has been published showing various mechanisms that may affect the ultimate assessment of radon as a carcinogen, in particular the potentially deleterious Bystander Effect (BE) and the potentially beneficial Adaptive Response radio-protection (AR). The case-control radon lung cancer risk data of the pooled 13 European countries radon study (Darby et al 2005, 2006) and the 8 North American pooled study (Krewski et al 2005, 2006) have been evaluated. The large variation in the odds ratios of lung cancer from radon risk is reconciled, based on the large variation in geological and ecological conditions and variation in the degree of adaptive response radio-protection against the bystander effect induced lung damage. The analysis clearly shows Bystander Effect radon lung cancer induction and Adaptive Response reduction in lung cancer in some geographical regions. It is estimated that for radon levels up to about 400 Bq m−3 there is about a 30% probability that no human lung cancer risk from radon will be experienced and a 20% probability that the risk is below the zero-radon, endogenic spontaneous or perhaps even genetically inheritable lung cancer risk rate. The BEIR VI (1999) and EPA (2003) estimates of human lung cancer deaths from radon are most likely significantly excessive. The assumption of linearity of risk, by the Linear No-Threshold Model, with increasing radon exposure is invalid. PMID:22942874

  14. Elevated endogenous erythropoietin concentrations are associated with increased risk of brain damage in extremely preterm neonates.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steven J Korzeniewski

    Full Text Available We sought to determine, in very preterm infants, whether elevated perinatal erythropoietin (EPO concentrations are associated with increased risks of indicators of brain damage, and whether this risk differs by the co-occurrence or absence of intermittent or sustained systemic inflammation (ISSI.Protein concentrations were measured in blood collected from 786 infants born before the 28th week of gestation. EPO was measured on postnatal day 14, and 25 inflammation-related proteins were measured weekly during the first 2 postnatal weeks. We defined ISSI as a concentration in the top quartile of each of 25 inflammation-related proteins on two separate days a week apart. Hypererythropoietinemia (hyperEPO was defined as the highest quartile for gestational age on postnatal day 14. Using logistic regression and multinomial logistic regression models, we compared risks of brain damage among neonates with hyperEPO only, ISSI only, and hyperEPO+ISSI, to those who had neither hyperEPO nor ISSI, adjusting for gestational age.Newborns with hyperEPO, regardless of ISSI, were more than twice as likely as those without to have very low (< 55 Mental (OR 2.3; 95% CI 1.5-3.5 and/or Psychomotor (OR 2.4; 95% CI 1.6-3.7 Development Indices (MDI, PDI, and microcephaly at age two years (OR 2.4; 95%CI 1.5-3.8. Newborns with both hyperEPO and ISSI had significantly increased risks of ventriculomegaly, hemiparetic cerebral palsy, microcephaly, and MDI and PDI < 55 (ORs ranged from 2.2-6.3, but not hypoechoic lesions or other forms of cerebral palsy, relative to newborns with neither hyperEPO nor ISSI.hyperEPO, regardless of ISSI, is associated with elevated risks of very low MDI and PDI, and microcephaly, but not with any form of cerebral palsy. Children with both hyperEPO and ISSI are at higher risk than others of very low MDI and PDI, ventriculomegaly, hemiparetic cerebral palsy, and microcephaly.

  15. Adaptive Governance, Uncertainty, and Risk: Policy Framing and Responses to Climate Change, Drought, and Flood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hurlbert, Margot; Gupta, Joyeeta

    2016-02-01

    As climate change impacts result in more extreme events (such as droughts and floods), the need to understand which policies facilitate effective climate change adaptation becomes crucial. Hence, this article answers the question: How do governments and policymakers frame policy in relation to climate change, droughts, and floods and what governance structures facilitate adaptation? This research interrogates and analyzes through content analysis, supplemented by semi-structured qualitative interviews, the policy response to climate change, drought, and flood in relation to agricultural producers in four case studies in river basins in Chile, Argentina, and Canada. First, an epistemological explanation of risk and uncertainty underscores a brief literature review of adaptive governance, followed by policy framing in relation to risk and uncertainty, and an analytical model is developed. Pertinent findings of the four cases are recounted, followed by a comparative analysis. In conclusion, recommendations are made to improve policies and expand adaptive governance to better account for uncertainty and risk. This article is innovative in that it proposes an expanded model of adaptive governance in relation to "risk" that can help bridge the barrier of uncertainty in science and policy. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  16. Study on quantitative risk assessment model of the third party damage for natural gas pipelines based on fuzzy comprehensive assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Qiu, Zeyang; Liang, Wei; Lin, Yang; Zhang, Meng; Wang, Xue

    2017-01-01

    As an important part of national energy supply system, transmission pipelines for natural gas are possible to cause serious environmental pollution, life and property loss in case of accident. The third party damage is one of the most significant causes for natural gas pipeline system accidents, and it is very important to establish an effective quantitative risk assessment model of the third party damage for reducing the number of gas pipelines operation accidents. Against the third party damage accident has the characteristics such as diversity, complexity and uncertainty, this paper establishes a quantitative risk assessment model of the third party damage based on Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation (FCE). Firstly, risk sources of third party damage should be identified exactly, and the weight of factors could be determined via improved AHP, finally the importance of each factor is calculated by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model. The results show that the quantitative risk assessment model is suitable for the third party damage of natural gas pipelines and improvement measures could be put forward to avoid accidents based on the importance of each factor. (paper)

  17. Overview of the risk management approach to adaptation to climate change in Canada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Noble, D.; Bruce, J.; Egener, M.

    2005-03-01

    Climate change poses risks related to frequent and extreme weather events, changes in water availability and changes in the performance of infrastructure systems. Risk management offers a decision-making framework to assist in the selection of optimal or cost-effective strategies using a systematic public process. Risks related to climate change are a new type of risk and are increasingly of concern for governments and citizens around the world. An introduction to risk-based approaches to climate change adaptation decision-making in Canada was presented in this paper. Steps in the risk management process were presented. Risk management approaches from various countries were reviewed, including the Canadian Standards Association's (CSA) national risk management guideline; the Government of Canada's Integrated Risk Management Framework; the Caribbean Risk Management Guideline; World Bank risk management strategies for adaptation to climate change; and the United Kingdom Climate Impacts Program. Details of a study conducted by the United Kingdom Department for Environment, Food, and Rural Affairs to explore the implications of climate change were also presented. Vulnerabilities of response mechanisms to climate change and the interrelations of public systems were reviewed. Issues concerning infrastructure renewal and development were examined, as well as emergency planning and management strategies. It was concluded that the development of training materials and tools for decision-makers in Canada is needed. A climate change risk management planning guidebook was proposed. refs., tabs., figs

  18. Smallholder farmers’ attitudes and determinants of adaptation to climate risks in East Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kelvin M. Shikuku

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Adapting to climate risks is central to the goal of increasing food security and enhancing resilience of farming systems in East Africa. We examined farmers’ attitudes and assessed determinants of adaptation using data from a random sample of 500 households in Borana, Ethiopia; Nyando, Kenya; Hoima, Uganda; and Lushoto, Tanzania. Adaptation was measured using a livelihood-based index that assigned weights to different individual strategies based on their marginal contributions to a household’s livelihood. Results showed that farmers’ attitudes across the four sites strongly favored introduction of new crops, changes in crop varieties, and changes in planting times. Farmers disfavored soil, land, and water management practices. At lower levels of adaptation (25% quantile, adaptation index correlated positively with membership to farmers’ groups, household size, sex of the household head, and number of months of food shortage. Farmer group membership enhanced adaptation at intermediate (50% quantile level whereas access to credit increased adaptation at high (75% quantile level. Food insecurity, however, correlated negatively with the likelihood to choose individual adaptation strategies suggesting that although households adapted to improve food security status of their households, hunger was a barrier to adaptation. Our findings suggest that providing climate information to inform timely planting, promoting crop diversification, and encouraging adoption of adapted varieties of crops might be successful to enhancing resilience of farming systems in the short-term. In the long-term, increased investment in reducing hunger, encouraging groups formation, and easing liquidity constraints will be required to promote adaptation through implementation of soil, water, and land management strategies.

  19. Turning risk assessment and adaptation policy priorities into meaningful interventions and governance processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Kathryn; DiMauro, Manuela; Johns, Daniel; Holmes, Gemma; Thompson, David; Russell, Andrew; Style, David

    2018-06-01

    The UK is one of the first countries in the world to have set up a statutory system of national climate risk assessments followed by a national adaptation programme. Having this legal framework has been essential for enabling adaptation at the government level in a challenging political environment. However, using this framework to create an improvement in resilience to climate change across the country requires more than publishing a set of documents; it requires careful thought about what interventions work, how they can be enabled and what level of risk acceptability individuals, organizations and the country should be aiming for. This article is part of the theme issue `Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

  20. Health Risk Assessment and DNA Damage of Volatile Organic Compounds in Car Painting Houses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patpida Siripongpokin

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Car painters who work near volatile organic compounds (VOCs sources, including paints, solvents and painting processes may be exposed to highly elevated VOCs levels. This study investigates air samples from car painting houses in Thailand to evaluate the health risks following inhalation exposure. Personal air samplings were obtained at nine garages in Phitsanulok, Thailand from June to September 2012. The concentrations of benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, xylenes, and styrene in the air workplaces were significantly higher than in a control group of office workers (p < 0.05. Toluene, xylene and ethylbenzene were the most abundant species. However, all VOCs in these air samples were lower than TWA limit of Thailand and the OSHA standard. The lifetime cancer and non-cancer risks for the workers exposed to VOCs were also assessed. The average lifetime cancer risk was 41.0 (38.2-47.2 per million, which is in the acceptable risk. The average lifetime non-cancer risk, the HI, was 0.962 (0.643-1.397, which is well below the reference hazard level. Urine samples, collected after 8-h work periods which were analyzed for VOCs metabolites, including t,t muconic acid, hippuric acid, mandelic acid and m-hippuric acid, demonstrate that the average levels of metabolites in car painters and in controls were close. All VOCs metabolites in urine samples were lower than BEI of ACGIH standard. Blood samples, collected after 8-h work periods which were analyzed by single cell gel electrophoresis (comet assay. The DNA damage, assessed by tail moment, demonstrates that the average of tail moment in car painters were significantly higher than in the controls (p < 0.05.

  1. Partial meniscectomy is associated with increased risk of incident radiographic osteoarthritis and worsening cartilage damage in the following year

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roemer, Frank W. [Boston University School of Medicine, Quantitative Imaging Center, Department of Radiology, Boston, MA (United States); University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Department of Radiology, Erlangen (Germany); Kwoh, C.K. [University of Arizona Arthritis Center and University of Arizona College of Medicine, Tucson, AZ (United States); Hannon, Michael J.; Grago, Jason [University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine, Division of Rheumatology and Clinical Immunology, Pittsburgh, PA (United States); Hunter, David J. [University of Sydney, Department of Rheumatology, Royal North Shore Hospital and Kolling Institute, St Leonards (Australia); Eckstein, Felix [Paracelsus Medical University, Institute of Anatomy, Salzburg (Austria); Boudreau, Robert M. [University of Pittsburgh Graduate School of Public Health, Department of Epidemiology, Pittsburgh, PA (United States); Englund, Martin [Lund University, Clinical Epidemiology Unit, Orthopaedics, Department of Clinical Sciences Lund, Lund (Sweden); Guermazi, Ali [Boston University School of Medicine, Quantitative Imaging Center, Department of Radiology, Boston, MA (United States)

    2017-01-15

    To assess whether partial meniscectomy is associated with increased risk of radiographic osteoarthritis (ROA) and worsening cartilage damage in the following year. We studied 355 knees from the Osteoarthritis Initiative that developed ROA (Kellgren-Lawrence grade ≥ 2), which were matched with control knees. The MR images were assessed using the semi-quantitative MOAKS system. Conditional logistic regression was applied to estimate risk of incident ROA. Logistic regression was used to assess the risk of worsening cartilage damage in knees with partial meniscectomy that developed ROA. In the group with incident ROA, 4.4 % underwent partial meniscectomy during the year prior to the case-defining visit, compared with none of the knees that did not develop ROA. All (n = 31) knees that had partial meniscectomy and 58.9 % (n = 165) of the knees with prevalent meniscal damage developed ROA (OR = 2.51, 95 % CI [1.73, 3.64]). In knees that developed ROA, partial meniscectomy was associated with an increased risk of worsening cartilage damage (OR = 4.51, 95 % CI [1.53, 13.33]). The probability of having had partial meniscectomy was higher in knees that developed ROA. When looking only at knees that developed ROA, partial meniscectomy was associated with greater risk of worsening cartilage damage. (orig.)

  2. Adaptation to flood risk: Results of international paired flood event studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kreibich, Heidi; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Vorogushyn, Sergiy

    2017-01-01

    studies, we find that lower damage caused by the second event was mainly due to significant reductions in vulnerability, for example, via raised risk awareness, preparedness, and improvements of organizational emergency management. Thus, vulnerability reduction plays an essential role for successful...

  3. Beyond risk and protective factors: An adaptation-based approach to resilience

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ellis, B.J.; Bianchi, J.G.; Griskevicius, V.; Frankenhuis, W.E.

    2017-01-01

    How does repeated or chronic childhood adversity shape social and cognitive abilities? According to the prevailing deficit model, children from high-stress backgrounds are at risk for impairments in learning and behavior, and the intervention goal is to prevent, reduce, or repair the damage. Missing

  4. Review of the Oconee-3 probabilistic risk assessment: external events, core damage frequency. Volume 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hanan, N.A.; Ilberg, D.; Xue, D.; Youngblood, R.; Reed, J.W.; McCann, M.; Talwani, T.; Wreathall, J.; Kurth, P.D.; Bandyopadhyay, K.

    1986-03-01

    A review of the Oconee-3 Probabilistic Risk Assessment (OPRA) was conducted with the broad objective of evaluating qualitatively and quantitatively (as much as possible) the OPRA assessment of the important sequences that are ''externally'' generated and lead to core damage. The review included a technical assessment of the assumptions and methods used in the OPRA within its stated objective and with the limited information available. Within this scope, BNL performed a detailed reevaluation of the accident sequences generated by internal floods and earthquakes and a less detailed review (in some cases a scoping review) for the accident sequences generated by fires, tornadoes, external floods, and aircraft impact. 12 refs., 24 figs., 31 tabs.

  5. Review of the Oconee-3 probabilistic risk assessment: external events, core damage frequency. Volume 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hanan, N.A.; Ilberg, D.; Xue, D.

    1986-03-01

    A review of the Oconee-3 Probabilistic Risk Assessment (OPRA) was conducted with the broad objective of evaluating qualitatively and quantitatively (as much as possible) the OPRA assessment of the important sequences that are ''externally'' generated and lead to core damage. The review included a technical assessment of the assumptions and methods used in the OPRA within its stated objective and with the limited information available. Within this scope, BNL performed a detailed reevaluation of the accident sequences generated by internal floods and earthquakes and a less detailed review (in some cases a scoping review) for the accident sequences generated by fires, tornadoes, external floods, and aircraft impact. 12 refs., 24 figs., 31 tabs

  6. Integrating scientific and local knowledge to inform risk-based management approaches for climate adaptation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nathan P. Kettle

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Risk-based management approaches to climate adaptation depend on the assessment of potential threats, and their causes, vulnerabilities, and impacts. The refinement of these approaches relies heavily on detailed local knowledge of places and priorities, such as infrastructure, governance structures, and socio-economic conditions, as well as scientific understanding of climate projections and trends. Developing processes that integrate local and scientific knowledge will enhance the value of risk-based management approaches, facilitate group learning and planning processes, and support the capacity of communities to prepare for change. This study uses the Vulnerability, Consequences, and Adaptation Planning Scenarios (VCAPS process, a form of analytic-deliberative dialogue, and the conceptual frameworks of hazard management and climate vulnerability, to integrate scientific and local knowledge. We worked with local government staff in an urbanized barrier island community (Sullivan’s Island, South Carolina to consider climate risks, impacts, and adaptation challenges associated with sea level rise and wastewater and stormwater management. The findings discuss how the process increases understanding of town officials’ views of risks and climate change impacts to barrier islands, the management actions being considered to address of the multiple impacts of concern, and the local tradeoffs and challenges in adaptation planning. We also comment on group learning and specific adaptation tasks, strategies, and needs identified.

  7. Climate change vulnerability, adaptation and risk perceptions at farm level in Punjab, Pakistan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abid, Muhammad; Schilling, Janpeter; Scheffran, Jürgen; Zulfiqar, Farhad

    2016-03-15

    Pakistan is among the countries highly exposed and vulnerable to climate change. The country has experienced many severe floods, droughts and storms over the last decades. However, little research has focused on the investigation of vulnerability and adaptation to climate-related risks in Pakistan. Against this backdrop, this article investigates the farm level risk perceptions and different aspects of vulnerability to climate change including sensitivity and adaptive capacity at farm level in Pakistan. We interviewed a total of 450 farming households through structured questionnaires in three districts of Punjab province of Pakistan. This study identified a number of climate-related risks perceived by farm households such as extreme temperature events, insect attacks, animal diseases and crop pests. Limited water availability, high levels of poverty and a weak role of local government in providing proper infrastructure were the factors that make farmers more sensitive to climate-related risks. Uncertainty or reduction in crop and livestock yields; changed cropping calendars and water shortage were the major adverse impacts of climate-related risks reported by farmers in the study districts. Better crop production was reported as the only positive effect. Further, this study identified a number of farm level adaptation methods employed by farm households that include changes in crop variety, crop types, planting dates and input mix, depending upon the nature of the climate-related risks. Lack of resources, limited information, lack of finances and institutional support were some constraints that limit the adaptive capacity of farm households. This study also reveals a positive role of cooperation and negative role of conflict in the adaptation process. The study suggests to address the constraints to adaptation and to improve farm level cooperation through extended outreach and distribution of institutional services, particularly climate-specific farm advisory

  8. TREES OF DAMAGES AS A MODEL OF RISKS ASSESSMENT FOR AVAILABILITY LOSSES AFTER CHANGES IN FINANCIAL INFORMATION SYSTEMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. A. Arustamov

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with the methodology for risks assessment of availability losses in financial information systems after changes made in them by using trees of damages. A description of damages tree generation for each identified possible event is presented that potentially can lead to the system availability loss. An example is given, illustrating the methodology application that gives the possibility to choose the optimal software testing strategy.

  9. Cumulative Effects of Several Target Organ Damages in Risk Assessment in Hypertension.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harbaoui, Brahim; Courand, Pierre-Yves; Defforges, Alice; Khettab, Fouad; Milon, Hugues; Girerd, Nicolas; Lantelme, Pierre

    2016-02-01

    The prognostic value of screening multiple target organ damages (TODs) in hypertensive subjects has not been extensively studied. We estimated the prognostic value of considering 3 TODs in estimating the 10-year survival in hypertensive subjects. At baseline 1,848 out of a cohort of 1,963 hypertensive patients had a previous cardiovascular disease (CVD) or assessments of 3 TODs: Modification in Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) 300mg/day, Sokolow index >3.5 mV, and advanced hypertensive retinopathy (grades 3 and 4 of Keith-Wagener-Barker classification). The cohort was divided into 5 groups: 0 TOD (N = 978), 1 TOD (N = 308), 2 TODs (N = 94), 3 TODs (N = 30), and previous CVD (N = 438). After 10 years of follow-up, we observed 418 deaths of which 254 from cardiovascular cause. The adjusted hazard ratios for the major cardiovascular risk factors showed a progressive risk associated with the number of TODs. For all-cause death, the hazard ratios [95% confidence intervals] vs. 0 TOD of the other 4 groups were 1.91 [1.39-2.63], 1.99 [1.28-3.10], 4.33 [2.42-7.72], and 3.09 [2.35-4.05], respectively. For cardiovascular death, the hazard ratios [95% confidence intervals] were of the same order of magnitude: 2.14 [1.38-3.32], 2.12 [1.15-3.89], 4.22 [1.83-9.72], and 4.24 [2.95-6.11], respectively. Our results indicate that hypertensive patients with several TODs had a worst outcome. Thus, it seems important to screen for multiple TODs in hypertension; especially check for severe hypertensive retinopathy in patients with left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) and renal damage. © American Journal of Hypertension, Ltd 2015. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  10. Adapt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bargatze, L. F.

    2015-12-01

    Active Data Archive Product Tracking (ADAPT) is a collection of software routines that permits one to generate XML metadata files to describe and register data products in support of the NASA Heliophysics Virtual Observatory VxO effort. ADAPT is also a philosophy. The ADAPT concept is to use any and all available metadata associated with scientific data to produce XML metadata descriptions in a consistent, uniform, and organized fashion to provide blanket access to the full complement of data stored on a targeted data server. In this poster, we present an application of ADAPT to describe all of the data products that are stored by using the Common Data File (CDF) format served out by the CDAWEB and SPDF data servers hosted at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. These data servers are the primary repositories for NASA Heliophysics data. For this purpose, the ADAPT routines have been used to generate data resource descriptions by using an XML schema named Space Physics Archive, Search, and Extract (SPASE). SPASE is the designated standard for documenting Heliophysics data products, as adopted by the Heliophysics Data and Model Consortium. The set of SPASE XML resource descriptions produced by ADAPT includes high-level descriptions of numerical data products, display data products, or catalogs and also includes low-level "Granule" descriptions. A SPASE Granule is effectively a universal access metadata resource; a Granule associates an individual data file (e.g. a CDF file) with a "parent" high-level data resource description, assigns a resource identifier to the file, and lists the corresponding assess URL(s). The CDAWEB and SPDF file systems were queried to provide the input required by the ADAPT software to create an initial set of SPASE metadata resource descriptions. Then, the CDAWEB and SPDF data repositories were queried subsequently on a nightly basis and the CDF file lists were checked for any changes such as the occurrence of new, modified, or deleted

  11. Non-Linear Adaptive Phenomena Which Decrease The Risk of Infection After Pre-Exposure to Radiofrequency Radiation

    OpenAIRE

    Mortazavi, S.M.J.; Motamedifar, M.; Namdari, G.; Taheri, M.; Mortazavi, A.R.; Shokrpour, N.

    2013-01-01

    Substantial evidence indicates that adaptive response induced by low doses of ionizing radiation can result in resistance to the damage caused by a subsequently high-dose radiation or cause cross-resistance to other non-radiation stressors. Adaptive response contradicts the linear-non-threshold (LNT) dose-response model for ionizing radiation. We have previously reported that exposure of laboratory animals to radiofrequency radiation can induce a survival adaptive response. Furthermore, we ha...

  12. Parallel structures for disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation in Southern Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Per Becker

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available During the last decade, the interest of the international community in the concepts of disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation has been growing immensely. Even though an increasing number of scholars seem to view these concepts as two sides of the same coin (at least when not considering the potentially positive effects of climate change, in practice the two concepts have developed in parallel rather than in an integrated manner when it comes to policy, rhetoric and funding opportunities amongst international organisations and donors. This study investigates the extent of the creation of parallel structures for disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation in the Southern African Development Community (SADC region. The chosen methodology for the study is a comparative case study and the data are collected through focus groups and content analysis of documentary sources, as well as interviews with key informants. The results indicate that parallel structures for disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation have been established in all but one of the studied countries. The qualitative interviews performed in some of the countries indicate that stakeholders in disaster risk reduction view this duplication of structures as unfortunate, inefficient and a fertile setup for conflict over resources for the implementation of similar activities. Additional research is called for in order to study the concrete effects of having these parallel structures as a foundation for advocacy for more efficient future disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation.

  13. Associations between risk perception, spontaneous adaptation behavior to heat waves and heatstroke in Guangdong province, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Tao; Xu, Yan Jun; Zhang, Yong Hui; Yan, Qing Hua; Song, Xiu Ling; Xie, Hui Yan; Luo, Yuan; Rutherford, Shannon; Chu, Cordia; Lin, Hua Liang; Ma, Wen Jun

    2013-10-02

    In many parts of the world, including in China, extreme heat events or heat waves are likely to increase in intensity, frequency, and duration in light of climate change in the next decades. Risk perception and adaptation behaviors are two important components in reducing the health impacts of heat waves, but little is known about their relationships in China. This study aimed to examine the associations between risk perception to heat waves, adaptation behaviors, and heatstroke among the public in Guangdong province, China. A total of 2,183 adult participants were selected using a four-stage sampling method in Guangdong province. From September to November of 2010 each subject was interviewed at home by a well-trained investigator using a structured questionnaire. The information collected included socio-demographic characteristics, risk perception and spontaneous adaptation behaviors during heat wave periods, and heatstroke experience in the last year. Chi-square tests and unconditional logistic regression models were employed to analyze the data. This study found that 14.8%, 65.3% and 19.9% of participants perceived heat waves as a low, moderate or high health risk, respectively. About 99.1% participants employed at least one spontaneous adaptation behavior, and 26.2%, 51.2% and 22.6% respondents employed 7 adaptation behaviors during heat waves, respectively. Individuals with moderate (OR=2.93, 95% CI: 1.38-6.22) or high (OR=10.58, 95% CI: 4.74-23.63) risk perception experienced more heatstroke in the past year than others. Drinking more water and wearing light clothes in urban areas, while decreasing activity as well as wearing light clothes in rural areas were negatively associated with heatstroke. Individuals with high risk perception and employing risks of heatstroke (OR=47.46, 95% CI: 12.82-175.73). There is a large room for improving health risk perception and adaptation capacity to heat waves among the public of Guangdong province. People with higher

  14. Associations between risk perception, spontaneous adaptation behavior to heat waves and heatstroke in Guangdong province, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Background In many parts of the world, including in China, extreme heat events or heat waves are likely to increase in intensity, frequency, and duration in light of climate change in the next decades. Risk perception and adaptation behaviors are two important components in reducing the health impacts of heat waves, but little is known about their relationships in China. This study aimed to examine the associations between risk perception to heat waves, adaptation behaviors, and heatstroke among the public in Guangdong province, China. Methods A total of 2,183 adult participants were selected using a four-stage sampling method in Guangdong province. From September to November of 2010 each subject was interviewed at home by a well-trained investigator using a structured questionnaire. The information collected included socio-demographic characteristics, risk perception and spontaneous adaptation behaviors during heat wave periods, and heatstroke experience in the last year. Chi-square tests and unconditional logistic regression models were employed to analyze the data. Results This study found that 14.8%, 65.3% and 19.9% of participants perceived heat waves as a low, moderate or high health risk, respectively. About 99.1% participants employed at least one spontaneous adaptation behavior, and 26.2%, 51.2% and 22.6% respondents employed 7 adaptation behaviors during heat waves, respectively. Individuals with moderate (OR=2.93, 95% CI: 1.38-6.22) or high (OR=10.58, 95% CI: 4.74-23.63) risk perception experienced more heatstroke in the past year than others. Drinking more water and wearing light clothes in urban areas, while decreasing activity as well as wearing light clothes in rural areas were negatively associated with heatstroke. Individuals with high risk perception and employing risks of heatstroke (OR=47.46, 95% CI: 12.82-175.73). Conclusions There is a large room for improving health risk perception and adaptation capacity to heat waves among the public of

  15. Modeled changes in 100 year Flood Risk and Asset Damages within Mapped Floodplains of the Contiguous United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wobus, C. W.; Gutmann, E. D.; Jones, R.; Rissing, M.; Mizukami, N.; Lorie, M.; Mahoney, H.; Wood, A.; Mills, D.; Martinich, J.

    2017-12-01

    A growing body of recent work suggests that the extreme weather events that drive inland flooding are likely to increase in frequency and magnitude in a warming climate, thus increasing monetary damages from flooding in the future. We use hydrologic projections based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to estimate changes in the frequency of modeled 1% annual exceedance probability flood events at 57,116 locations across the contiguous United States (CONUS). We link these flood projections to a database of assets within mapped flood hazard zones to model changes in inland flooding damages throughout the CONUS over the remainder of the 21st century, under two greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios. Our model generates early 21st century flood damages that reasonably approximate the range of historical observations, and trajectories of future damages that vary substantially depending on the GHG emissions pathway. The difference in modeled flood damages between higher and lower emissions pathways approaches $4 billion per year by 2100 (in undiscounted 2014 dollars), suggesting that aggressive GHG emissions reductions could generate significant monetary benefits over the long-term in terms of reduced flood risk. Although the downscaled hydrologic data we used have been applied to flood impacts studies elsewhere, this research expands on earlier work to quantify changes in flood risk by linking future flood exposure to assets and damages at a national scale. Our approach relies on a series of simplifications that could ultimately affect damage estimates (e.g., use of statistical downscaling, reliance on a nationwide hydrologic model, and linking damage estimates only to 1% AEP floods). Although future work is needed to test the sensitivity of our results to these methodological choices, our results suggest that monetary damages from inland flooding could be substantially reduced through more aggressive GHG mitigation policies.

  16. Effectiveness of FDA's new over-the-counter acetaminophen warning label in improving consumer risk perception of liver damage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goyal, R K; Rajan, S S; Essien, E J; Sansgiry, S S

    2012-12-01

    The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) issued new organ-specific warning label requirements for over-the-counter (OTC) analgesic products in order to make consumers aware of the risk of liver damage when using acetaminophen. However, awareness of a health risk alone cannot ensure consumers' engagement in safe and preventive behaviour. In this study, we attempted to: (i) measure consumer risk perception of liver damage due to the OTC acetaminophen products and (ii) analyse the effectiveness of the new organ-specific warning label in improving consumer risk perception of liver damage and intention to perform protective behaviours while using OTC acetaminophen products. This within-subject experimental study used a convenience sample of English-speaking adults visiting OTC segments of selected pharmacy stores in Houston. Participants were randomly exposed to the old and new warning labels and their respective risk perception (measured on a visual analogue scale, 0%, no risk, to 100%, extreme risk) and behavioural intention (measured on a 7-point Likert scale) were recorded using a validated, self-administered questionnaire. Descriptive statistics and non-parametric Wilcoxon signed-rank tests were performed using sas statistical software (v 9.2) at a priori significance level of 0.05. Majority of participants (74.4%) were not aware of the new warnings; however, majority (67.8%) had prior knowledge of the risk. The mean risk perception score for the new warning label was found to be significantly higher (72.2% vs. 65.9%, P risk perception of potential liver damage and may encourage protective behaviour. However, future studies are essential to assess the impact of the new label on actual changes in consumer behaviour and subsequent reduction in acetaminophen-related morbidity and mortality. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  17. A comparative review of multi-risk modelling methodologies for climate change adaptation in mountain regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terzi, Stefano; Torresan, Silvia; Schneiderbauer, Stefan

    2017-04-01

    Keywords: Climate change, mountain regions, multi-risk assessment, climate change adaptation. Climate change has already led to a wide range of impacts on the environment, the economy and society. Adaptation actions are needed to cope with the impacts that have already occurred (e.g. storms, glaciers melting, floods, droughts) and to prepare for future scenarios of climate change. Mountain environment is particularly vulnerable to the climate changes due to its exposure to recent climate warming (e.g. water regime changes, thawing of permafrost) and due to the high degree of specialization of both natural and human systems (e.g. alpine species, valley population density, tourism-based economy). As a consequence, the mountain local governments are encouraged to undertake territorial governance policies to climate change, considering multi-risks and opportunities for the mountain economy and identifying the best portfolio of adaptation strategies. This study aims to provide a literature review of available qualitative and quantitative tools, methodological guidelines and best practices to conduct multi-risk assessments in the mountain environment within the context of climate change. We analyzed multi-risk modelling and assessment methods applied in alpine regions (e.g. event trees, Bayesian Networks, Agent Based Models) in order to identify key concepts (exposure, resilience, vulnerability, risk, adaptive capacity), climatic drivers, cause-effect relationships and socio-ecological systems to be integrated in a comprehensive framework. The main outcomes of the review, including a comparison of existing techniques based on different criteria (e.g. scale of analysis, targeted questions, level of complexity) and a snapshot of the developed multi-risk framework for climate change adaptation will be here presented and discussed.

  18. Application of crowdsourced hail data and damage information for hail risk assessment in the province of Styria, Austria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tani, Satyanarayana; Rechberger, Andreas; Süsser Rechberger, Barbara; Teschl, Reinhard; Paulitsch, Helmut

    2017-04-01

    Hail storm damage is a major concern to the farmers in the province of Styria, Austria. Each year severe hail storms are causing damages to crops, resulting in losses of millions of euros. High spatial and timely ground truth information of the hail event and crop damage measurements are essential for better hail risk assessment. Usually, hail pad networks and visual damage surveys are used to collect the hail data and corresponding damage information. However, these hail pad networks are expensive and need laborious maintenance. The traditional crop damage assessment approaches are very labour-intensive and time-consuming. The advancements in information and communication technology (ICT) and the power of citizen based crowdsourcing data, will help to overcome these problems and ultimately provide a platform for data collection. A user-friendly and bilingual web interface was developed to collect hail data and crop damage information in the province of Styria, Austria. The dynamic web interface was developed using HTML5, JavaScript, and PHP7 combined with a MySQL database back-end. OpenStreetMap was integrated into the web interface and tile server optimised for an easy identification of geolocation information. The user needs an internet connection to transfer the data through smartphone or computer. Crowdsourced data will be quality tested and evaluated with 3D single polarisation C-band weather radar data to remove potential false reports. Further, the relationship between the reported hail events and radar-based hail detection algorithms (Waldvogel and Auer) and derived hail signature information intended for crop hail risk assessment will be investigated. The details about the web interface tool, application and verification methods to collect, analyse, and integrate different data sets are given. Further, the high spatial risk assessment information is communicated to support risk management policy.

  19. How avian nest site selection responds to predation risk: Testing an 'adaptive peak hypothesis'

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quresh S. Latif; Sacha K. Heath; John T. Rotenberry

    2012-01-01

    1. Nest predation limits avian fitness, so birds should favour nest sites that minimize predation risk. Nevertheless, preferred nest microhabitat features are often uncorrelated with apparent variation in predation rates. 2. This lack of congruence between theory-based expectation and empirical data may arise when birds already occupy ‘adaptive peaks’. If birds nest...

  20. Adaptation to flood risk: Results of international paired flood event studies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kreibich, Heidi; Di Baldassarre, G.; Vorogushyn, Sergiy; Aerts, J.C.J.H.; Apel, H.; Aronica, G.T.; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K.; Bouwer, L.; Bubeck, P.; Caloiero, Tommaso; Chinh, Do. T.; Cortès, Maria; Gain, A.K.; Giampá, Vincenzo; Kuhlicke, C; Kundzewicz, Z.W.; Carmen Llasat, M; Mård, Johanna; Matczak, Piotr; Mazzoleni, Maurizio; Molinari, Daniela; Dung, N.V.; Petrucci, Olga; Schröter, Kai; Slager, Kymo; Thieken, A.H.; Ward, P.J.; Merz, B.

    2017-01-01

    As flood impacts are increasing in large parts of the world, understanding the primary drivers of changes in risk is essential for effective adaptation. To gain more knowledge on the basis of empirical case studies, we analyze eight paired floods, that is, consecutive flood events that occurred in

  1. Risk-adapted targeted intraoperative radiotherapy versus whole-breast radiotherapy for breast cancer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vaidya, Jayant S; Wenz, Frederik; Bulsara, Max

    2014-01-01

    The TARGIT-A trial compared risk-adapted radiotherapy using single-dose targeted intraoperative radiotherapy (TARGIT) versus fractionated external beam radiotherapy (EBRT) for breast cancer. We report 5-year results for local recurrence and the first analysis of overall survival....

  2. Health risks of climate change: An assessment of uncertainties and its implications for adaption policies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wardekker, J.A.; de Jong, A.; van Bree, L.; Turkenburg, W.C.; van der Sluijs, J.P.

    2012-01-01

    Background: Projections of health risks of climate change are surrounded with uncertainties in knowledge. Understanding of these uncertainties will help the selection of appropriate adaptation policies. Methods: We made an inventory of conceivable health impacts of climate change, explored the type

  3. Cortisol Reactivity to Social Stress as a Mediator of Early Adversity on Risk and Adaptive Outcomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conradt, Elisabeth; Abar, Beau; Lester, Barry M.; LaGasse, Linda L.; Shankaran, Seetha; Bada, Henrietta; Bauer, Charles R.; Whitaker, Toni M.; Hammond, Jane A.

    2014-01-01

    Children chronically exposed to stress early in life are at increased risk for maladaptive outcomes, though the physiological mechanisms driving these effects are unknown. Cortisol reactivity was tested as a mediator of the relation between prenatal substance exposure and/or early adversity on adaptive and maladaptive outcomes. Data were drawn…

  4. Adaptive aspirations : Performance consequences of risk preferences at extremes and alternative reference groups

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hu, S.; Blettner, D.P.; Bettis, R.

    2011-01-01

    Goals or aspirations and their relationships to risk taking and performance are important issues in both psychology and strategic management. The concept of adaptive aspirations, as discussed in Cyert and March's Behavioral Theory of the Firm, has long been a topic of interest in both fields.

  5. Climate change impacts on flood risk and asset damages within mapped 100-year floodplains of the contiguous United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wobus, Cameron; Gutmann, Ethan; Jones, Russell; Rissing, Matthew; Mizukami, Naoki; Lorie, Mark; Mahoney, Hardee; Wood, Andrew W.; Mills, David; Martinich, Jeremy

    2017-12-01

    A growing body of work suggests that the extreme weather events that drive inland flooding are likely to increase in frequency and magnitude in a warming climate, thus potentially increasing flood damages in the future. We use hydrologic projections based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to estimate changes in the frequency of modeled 1 % annual exceedance probability (1 % AEP, or 100-year) flood events at 57 116 stream reaches across the contiguous United States (CONUS). We link these flood projections to a database of assets within mapped flood hazard zones to model changes in inland flooding damages throughout the CONUS over the remainder of the 21st century. Our model generates early 21st century flood damages that reasonably approximate the range of historical observations and trajectories of future damages that vary substantially depending on the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions pathway. The difference in modeled flood damages between higher and lower emissions pathways approaches USD 4 billion per year by 2100 (in undiscounted 2014 dollars), suggesting that aggressive GHG emissions reductions could generate significant monetary benefits over the long term in terms of reduced flood damages. Although the downscaled hydrologic data we used have been applied to flood impacts studies elsewhere, this research expands on earlier work to quantify changes in flood risk by linking future flood exposure to assets and damages on a national scale. Our approach relies on a series of simplifications that could ultimately affect damage estimates (e.g., use of statistical downscaling, reliance on a nationwide hydrologic model, and linking damage estimates only to 1 % AEP floods). Although future work is needed to test the sensitivity of our results to these methodological choices, our results indicate that monetary damages from inland flooding could be significantly reduced through substantial GHG mitigation.

  6. Climate change impacts on flood risk and asset damages within mapped 100-year floodplains of the contiguous United States

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Wobus

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available A growing body of work suggests that the extreme weather events that drive inland flooding are likely to increase in frequency and magnitude in a warming climate, thus potentially increasing flood damages in the future. We use hydrologic projections based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5 to estimate changes in the frequency of modeled 1 % annual exceedance probability (1 % AEP, or 100-year flood events at 57 116 stream reaches across the contiguous United States (CONUS. We link these flood projections to a database of assets within mapped flood hazard zones to model changes in inland flooding damages throughout the CONUS over the remainder of the 21st century. Our model generates early 21st century flood damages that reasonably approximate the range of historical observations and trajectories of future damages that vary substantially depending on the greenhouse gas (GHG emissions pathway. The difference in modeled flood damages between higher and lower emissions pathways approaches USD 4 billion per year by 2100 (in undiscounted 2014 dollars, suggesting that aggressive GHG emissions reductions could generate significant monetary benefits over the long term in terms of reduced flood damages. Although the downscaled hydrologic data we used have been applied to flood impacts studies elsewhere, this research expands on earlier work to quantify changes in flood risk by linking future flood exposure to assets and damages on a national scale. Our approach relies on a series of simplifications that could ultimately affect damage estimates (e.g., use of statistical downscaling, reliance on a nationwide hydrologic model, and linking damage estimates only to 1 % AEP floods. Although future work is needed to test the sensitivity of our results to these methodological choices, our results indicate that monetary damages from inland flooding could be significantly reduced through substantial GHG mitigation.

  7. Climate Risk Modelling of Balsam Woolly Adelgid Damage Severity in Subalpine Fir Stands of Western North America.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hrinkevich, Kathryn H; Progar, Robert A; Shaw, David C

    2016-01-01

    The balsam woolly adelgid (Adelges piceae (Ratzeburg) (Homoptera: Adelgidae)) (BWA) is a nonnative, invasive insect that threatens Abies species throughout North America. It is well established in the Pacific Northwest, but continues to move eastward through Idaho and into Montana and potentially threatens subalpine fir to the south in the central and southern Rocky Mountains. We developed a climatic risk model and map that predicts BWA impacts to subalpine fir using a two-step process. Using 30-year monthly climate normals from sites with quantitatively derived BWA damage severity index values, we built a regression model that significantly explained insect damage. The sites were grouped into two distinct damage categories (high damage and mortality versus little or no mortality and low damage) and the model estimates for each group were used to designate distinct value ranges for four climatic risk categories: minimal, low, moderate, and high. We then calculated model estimates for each cell of a 4-kilometer resolution climate raster and mapped the risk categories over the entire range of subalpine fir in the western United States. The spatial variation of risk classes indicates a gradient of climatic susceptibility generally decreasing from the Olympic Peninsula in Washington and the Cascade Range in Oregon and Washington moving eastward, with the exception of some high risk areas in northern Idaho and western Montana. There is also a pattern of decreasing climatic susceptibility from north to south in the Rocky Mountains. Our study provides an initial step for modeling the relationship between climate and BWA damage severity across the range of subalpine fir. We showed that September minimum temperature and a metric calculated as the maximum May temperature divided by total May precipitation were the best climatic predictors of BWA severity. Although winter cold temperatures and summer heat have been shown to influence BWA impacts in other locations, these

  8. Ultraviolet Radiation-Induced Cytogenetic Damage in White, Hispanic and Black Skin Melanocytes: A Risk for Cutaneous Melanoma

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dasgupta, Amrita [Hampton University Skin of Color Research Institute, Hampton, VA 23668 (United States); Katdare, Meena, E-mail: mkatdare@gmail.com [Hampton University Skin of Color Research Institute, Hampton, VA 23668 (United States); Department of Dermatology, Eastern Virginia Medical School, Norfolk, VA 23507 (United States)

    2015-08-14

    Cutaneous Melanoma (CM) is a leading cause of cancer deaths, with reports indicating a rising trend in the incidence rate of melanoma among Hispanics in certain U.S. states. The level of melanin pigmentation in the skin is suggested to render photoprotection from the DNA-damaging effects of Ultraviolet Radiation (UVR). UVR-induced DNA damage leads to cytogenetic defects visualized as the formation of micronuclei, multinuclei and polymorphic nuclei in cells, and a hallmark of cancer risk. The causative relationship between Sun exposure and CM is controversial, especially in Hispanics and needs further evaluation. This study was initiated with melanocytes from White, Hispanic and Black neonatal foreskins which were exposed to UVR to assess their susceptibility to UVR-induced modulation of cellular growth, cytogenetic damage, intracellular and released melanin. Our results show that White and Hispanic skin melanocytes with similar levels of constitutive melanin are susceptible to UVR-induced cytogenetic damage, whereas Black skin melanocytes are not. Our data suggest that the risk of developing UVR-induced CM in a skin type is correlated with the level of cutaneous pigmentation and its ethnic background. This study provides a benchmark for further investigation on the damaging effects of UVR as risk for CM in Hispanics.

  9. Ultraviolet Radiation-Induced Cytogenetic Damage in White, Hispanic and Black Skin Melanocytes: A Risk for Cutaneous Melanoma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dasgupta, Amrita; Katdare, Meena

    2015-01-01

    Cutaneous Melanoma (CM) is a leading cause of cancer deaths, with reports indicating a rising trend in the incidence rate of melanoma among Hispanics in certain U.S. states. The level of melanin pigmentation in the skin is suggested to render photoprotection from the DNA-damaging effects of Ultraviolet Radiation (UVR). UVR-induced DNA damage leads to cytogenetic defects visualized as the formation of micronuclei, multinuclei and polymorphic nuclei in cells, and a hallmark of cancer risk. The causative relationship between Sun exposure and CM is controversial, especially in Hispanics and needs further evaluation. This study was initiated with melanocytes from White, Hispanic and Black neonatal foreskins which were exposed to UVR to assess their susceptibility to UVR-induced modulation of cellular growth, cytogenetic damage, intracellular and released melanin. Our results show that White and Hispanic skin melanocytes with similar levels of constitutive melanin are susceptible to UVR-induced cytogenetic damage, whereas Black skin melanocytes are not. Our data suggest that the risk of developing UVR-induced CM in a skin type is correlated with the level of cutaneous pigmentation and its ethnic background. This study provides a benchmark for further investigation on the damaging effects of UVR as risk for CM in Hispanics

  10. The effectiveness of coral reefs for coastal hazard risk reduction and adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrario, Filippo; Beck, Michael W.; Storlazzi, Curt D.; Micheli, Fiorenza; Shepard, Christine C.; Airoldi, Laura

    2014-01-01

    The world’s coastal zones are experiencing rapid development and an increase in storms and flooding. These hazards put coastal communities at heightened risk, which may increase with habitat loss. Here we analyse globally the role and cost effectiveness of coral reefs in risk reduction. Meta-analyses reveal that coral reefs provide substantial protection against natural hazards by reducing wave energy by an average of 97%. Reef crests alone dissipate most of this energy (86%). There are 100 million or more people who may receive risk reduction benefits from reefs or bear hazard mitigation and adaptation costs if reefs are degraded. We show that coral reefs can provide comparable wave attenuation benefits to artificial defences such as breakwaters, and reef defences can be enhanced cost effectively. Reefs face growing threats yet there is opportunity to guide adaptation and hazard mitigation investments towards reef restoration to strengthen this first line of coastal defence.

  11. Linking Climate Risk, Policy Networks and Adaptation Planning in Public Lands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lubell, M.; Schwartz, M.; Peters, C.

    2014-12-01

    Federal public land management agencies in the United States have engaged a variety of planning efforts to address climate adaptation. A major goal of these efforts is to build policy networks that enable land managers to access information and expertise needed for responding to local climate risks. This paper investigates whether the perceived and modeled climate risk faced by different land managers is leading to larger networks or more participating in climate adaptation. In theory, the benefits of climate planning networks are larger when land managers are facing more potential changes. The basic hypothesis is tested with a survey of public land managers from hundreds of local and regional public lands management units in the Southwestern United States, as well as other stakeholders involved with climate adaptation planning. All survey respondents report their perceptions of climate risk along a variety of dimensions, as well as their participation in climate adaptation planning and information sharing networks. For a subset of respondents, we have spatially explicity GIS data about their location, which will be linked with downscaled climate model data. With the focus on climate change, the analysis is a subset of the overall idea of linking social and ecological systems.

  12. Haemodynamic responses and changes of haemostatic risk factors in cold-adapted humans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Lorenzo, F; Kadziola, Z; Mukherjee, M; Saba, N; Kakkar, V V

    1999-09-01

    Epidemiological studies have shown an increase in acute myocardial infarctions or deaths due to myocardial infarction in colder weather; the mechanisms most likely involve increased blood levels of haemostatic risk factors, and increases in arterial blood pressure and heart rate. We studied the relationship between cold adaptation, haemostatic risk factors and haemodynamic variables. Cold adaptation was obtained by a programme of immersion of the whole body up to the neck in a water-filled bath, the temperature of which was gradually decreased from 22 degrees C to 14 degrees C, time of exposure being increased from 5 to 20 min over a period of 90 days. We studied 428 patients (44% men) and measured blood levels of fibrinogen, plasminogen activator inhibitor 1 (PAI-1), tissue plasminogen activator antigen (t-PA), plasma viscosity, von Willebrand factor, D-dimer and platelet count, both at baseline and after 90 days of daily immersion. There were significant reductions in von Willebrand factor (-3%; p cold adaptation (-310; p = 0.004). Cold adaptation, compared with exposure to cold weather, induces different haemodynamic responses and changes of blood levels of haemostatic risk factors.

  13. Impact-Induced Muscle Damage and Contact-Sport: Aetiology, Effects on Neuromuscular Function and Recovery, and the Modulating Effects of Adaptation and Recovery Strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naughton, Mitchell; Miller, Joanna; Slater, Gary J

    2017-11-28

    Athletes involved in contact-sports are habitually exposed to skeletal muscle damage as part of their training and performance environments. This often leads to exercise-induced muscle damage (EIMD) resulting from repeated eccentric and/or high-intensity exercise, and impact-induced muscle damage (IIMD) resulting from collisions with opponents and the playing surface. Whilst EIMD has been an area of extensive investigation, IIMD has received comparatively little research, with the magnitude and timeframe of alterations following IIMD not presently well understood. It is currently thought that EIMD occurs through an overload of mechanical stress causing ultrastructural damage to the cellular membrane constituents. Damage leads to compromised ability to produce force which manifest immediately and persist for up to 14 days following exercise exposure. IIMD has been implicated in attenuated neuromuscular performance and recovery with inflammatory process implicated, although the underlying time course remains unclear. Exposure to EIMD leads to an adaptation to subsequent exposures, a phenomenon known as the repeated-bout effect. An analogous adaptation has been suggested to occur following IIMD, however, to date this contention remains equivocal. Whilst a considerable body of research has explored the efficacy of recovery strategies following EIMD, strategies promoting recovery from IIMD are limited to investigations using animal contusion models. Strategies such as cryotherapy and antioxidant supplementation, which focus on attenuating the secondary inflammatory response may provide additional benefit in IIMD and are explored herein. Further research is required to firstly establish a model of generating IIMD and then explore broader areas around IIMD in athletic populations.

  14. Coordinating ecological risk assessment with natural resource damage assessment: A panel discussion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanders, Brenda; Ammann, Mike; Hoff, Rebecca; Huston, Mark; Jenkins, Kenneth; Palagyi, Tony; Pelto, Karen; Rettig, Todd; Wagner, Anne

    2016-10-01

    Contaminated sites in the United States undergo remediation and restoration through regulatory programs that lead the 2 processes through independent but often parallel pathways with different objectives. The objective of remediation is to reduce risk to human health and the environment, whereas that of restoration is to restore injured resources and compensate the public for lost use of the services that natural resources provide. More complex sites, such as those associated with large river systems and urban waterways, have resulted in increasingly larger-scale ecological risk assessments (ERAs) and natural resource damage assessments (NRDAs) that take many years and involve diverse practitioners including scientists, economists, and engineers. Substantial levels of effort are now frequently required, creating a need for more efficient and cost-effective approaches to data collection, analyses, and assessments. Because there are commonalities in the data needs between ERAs and NRDAs, coordination of the design and implementation of site-specific studies that meet the needs of both programs could result in increased efficiency and lower costs. The Association for Environmental Health and Sciences Foundation convened a panel of environmental practitioners from industry, consulting, and regulatory bodies to examine the benefits and challenges associated with coordinating ERA and NRDA activities in the context of a broad range of regulatory programs. This brief communication presents the opinions and conclusions of the panelists on these issues and reports 2 case studies for which coordinated ERA and NRDA activities produced a positive outcome. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2016;12:616-621. © 2015 SETAC. © 2015 SETAC.

  15. Integrity management of Brazil-Bolivia gas pipeline to reduce risks due third party damage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vasconcellos, Carlos Renato Aragonez de; Monte, Oswaldo [PETROBRAS, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Colen, Eustaquio; Cunha, Roberto de Souza; Oliveira, Hudson Regis de [Transportadora Brasileira Gasoduto Bolivia-Brasil, S.A., Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Lima, Rogerio de Souza [RSL Consultoria Geoprojetos (Brazil); Schultz Neto, Walter [Milton Braga Assessoria Tecnica (Brazil)

    2005-07-01

    The Bolivia-Brazil Natural Gas Pipeline has 2.600 kilometers from Rio Grande City in Bolivia to Canoas City, in the south of Brazil. The right-of-way crosses a lot of types of topography and areas subjected to various kinds of anthropological actions, like areas in class locations 3, locals under agricultural activities, forests and minerals explorations, and near constructions of highway and railway, industrial constructions, new pipelines in the same right-of -way, channels, dams, that requires special projects to avoid that the gas pipeline could be subject to strengths that were not consider in the original design. The aim of this paper is to present the jobs developed by TBG during seven years of gas pipeline operations, as public awareness program, procedures to design, construct and inspect specials constructions along and near the right-of -way, control of mineral and forest explorations, monitoring and controlling of excavations on the right-of-way to install new pipelines and optical cables, to reduce risks of gas pipeline damage due third party, as a component of TBG' Managing Integrity Gas Pipeline Program. (author)

  16. Urban seismic risk assessment: statistical repair cost data and probable structural losses based on damage scenario—correlation analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eleftheriadou, Anastasia K.; Baltzopoulou, Aikaterini D.; Karabinis, Athanasios I.

    2016-06-01

    The current seismic risk assessment is based on two discrete approaches, actual and probable, validating afterwards the produced results. In the first part of this research, the seismic risk is evaluated from the available data regarding the mean statistical repair/strengthening or replacement cost for the total number of damaged structures (180,427 buildings) after the 7/9/1999 Parnitha (Athens) earthquake. The actual evaluated seismic risk is afterwards compared to the estimated probable structural losses, which is presented in the second part of the paper, based on a damage scenario in the referring earthquake. The applied damage scenario is based on recently developed damage probability matrices (DPMs) from Athens (Greece) damage database. The seismic risk estimation refers to 750,085 buildings situated in the extended urban region of Athens. The building exposure is categorized in five typical structural types and represents 18.80 % of the entire building stock in Greece. The last information is provided by the National Statistics Service of Greece (NSSG) according to the 2000-2001 census. The seismic input is characterized by the ratio, a g/ a o, where a g is the regional peak ground acceleration (PGA) which is evaluated from the earlier estimated research macroseismic intensities, and a o is the PGA according to the hazard map of the 2003 Greek Seismic Code. Finally, the collected investigated financial data derived from different National Services responsible for the post-earthquake crisis management concerning the repair/strengthening or replacement costs or other categories of costs for the rehabilitation of earthquake victims (construction and function of settlements for earthquake homeless, rent supports, demolitions, shorings) are used to determine the final total seismic risk factor.

  17. Climate Change Risk Management: CRE Adaptation Projects and the Risk Management Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    This document describes National Estuary Program partner projects that demonstrate how risk management can be successfully applied to address environmental challenges in our country’s coastal areas.

  18. Advancing national climate change risk assessment to deliver national adaptation plans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warren, R. F.; Wilby, R. L.; Brown, K.; Watkiss, P.; Betts, Richard A.; Murphy, James M.; Lowe, Jason A.

    2018-06-01

    A wide range of climate vulnerability and risk assessments have been implemented using different approaches at different scales, some with a broad multi-sectoral scope and others focused on single risks or sectors. This paper describes the novel approach to vulnerability and risk assessment which was designed and put into practice in the United Kingdom's Second Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA2) so as to build upon its earlier assessment (CCRA1). First, we summarize and critique the CCRA1 approach, and second describe the steps taken in the CCRA2 approach in detail, providing examples of how each was applied in practice. Novel elements of the approach include assessment of both present day and future vulnerability, a focus on the urgency of adaptation action, and a structure focused around systems of receptors rather than conventional sectors. Both stakeholders and reviewers generally regarded the approach as successful in providing advice on current risks and future opportunities to the UK from climate change, and the fulfilment of statutory duty. The need for a well-supported and open suite of impact indicators going forward is highlighted. This article is part of the theme issue `Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

  19. Advancing national climate change risk assessment to deliver national adaptation plans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warren, R F; Wilby, R L; Brown, K; Watkiss, P; Betts, Richard A; Murphy, James M; Lowe, Jason A

    2018-06-13

    A wide range of climate vulnerability and risk assessments have been implemented using different approaches at different scales, some with a broad multi-sectoral scope and others focused on single risks or sectors. This paper describes the novel approach to vulnerability and risk assessment which was designed and put into practice in the United Kingdom's Second Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA2) so as to build upon its earlier assessment (CCRA1). First, we summarize and critique the CCRA1 approach, and second describe the steps taken in the CCRA2 approach in detail, providing examples of how each was applied in practice. Novel elements of the approach include assessment of both present day and future vulnerability, a focus on the urgency of adaptation action, and a structure focused around systems of receptors rather than conventional sectors. Both stakeholders and reviewers generally regarded the approach as successful in providing advice on current risks and future opportunities to the UK from climate change, and the fulfilment of statutory duty. The need for a well-supported and open suite of impact indicators going forward is highlighted.This article is part of the theme issue 'Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'. © 2018 The Author(s).

  20. Proceedings of the adapting to climate change in Canada 2005 conference : understanding risks and building capacity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2005-01-01

    This four-day conference provided a national forum for researchers and decision-makers from a variety of disciplines to share information and results on climate change. Sponsored by Natural Resources Canada's Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Program, the conference explored ways to improve knowledge of Canada's vulnerability to climate change, to better assess the benefits and risks of climate change and to examine policies and options through which decisions on adaptation can be made. Conference topics included issues such as global warming; sustainable development; climate change and agriculture; adaptation strategies; water, coastline and marine management and climate change; municipal level management and climate change; climate change and health issues; and many other topics related to climate change. The conference featured paper and poster presentations, opening remarks, and panel discussions. A total of 118 conference papers and 46 conference posters were presented at the conference of which 17 have been catalogued separately in this database. refs., tabs., figs

  1. Woman to Woman (W2W): Adapting an HIV risk reduction intervention for older women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conner, Laneshia R; Engstrom, Malitta; Junious, Eric; Edwards-Knight, Kevin

    2017-05-03

    Woman to Woman (W2W) is a novel adaptation of the Sisters Informing Sisters about Topics on AIDS (SISTA) HIV prevention program. This article describes the process of adapting and piloting W2W based on recommendations from existing HIV prevention research. Six older women, all of whom had histories of homelessness and the majority of whom identified as African American, enrolled in the study, which piloted the adapted intervention and materials, evaluated the acceptability of the program, and assessed the measures related to the intervention. Participants described satisfaction with the program and had high rates of attendance; observations regarding the measures suggest the need to further develop assessments of HIV knowledge, condom use self-efficacy, and risk behaviors in this context.

  2. Development and validation of the Psychological Adaptation Scale (PAS): use in six studies of adaptation to a health condition or risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biesecker, Barbara B; Erby, Lori H; Woolford, Samuel; Adcock, Jessica Young; Cohen, Julie S; Lamb, Amanda; Lewis, Katie V; Truitt, Megan; Turriff, Amy; Reeve, Bryce B

    2013-11-01

    We introduce The Psychological Adaptation Scale (PAS) for assessing adaptation to a chronic condition or risk and present validity data from six studies of genetic conditions. Informed by theory, we identified four domains of adaptation: effective coping, self-esteem, social integration, and spiritual/existential meaning. Items were selected from the PROMIS "positive illness impact" item bank and adapted from the Rosenberg self-esteem scale to create a 20-item scale. Each domain included five items, with four sub-scale scores. Data from studies of six populations: adults affected with or at risk for genetic conditions (N=3) and caregivers of children with genetic conditions (N=3) were analyzed using confirmatory factor analyses (CFA). CFA suggested that all but five posited items converge on the domains as designed. Invariance of the PAS amongst the studies further suggested it is a valid and reliable tool to facilitate comparisons of adaptation across conditions. Use of the PAS will standardize assessments of adaptation and foster understanding of the relationships among related health outcomes, such as quality of life and psychological well-being. Clinical interventions can be designed based on PAS data to enhance dimensions of psychological adaptation to a chronic health condition or risk. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

  3. Health risks of climate change: An assessment of uncertainties and its implications for adaptation policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Background Projections of health risks of climate change are surrounded with uncertainties in knowledge. Understanding of these uncertainties will help the selection of appropriate adaptation policies. Methods We made an inventory of conceivable health impacts of climate change, explored the type and level of uncertainty for each impact, and discussed its implications for adaptation policy. A questionnaire-based expert elicitation was performed using an ordinal scoring scale. Experts were asked to indicate the level of precision with which health risks can be estimated, given the present state of knowledge. We assessed the individual scores, the expertise-weighted descriptive statistics, and the argumentation given for each score. Suggestions were made for how dealing with uncertainties could be taken into account in climate change adaptation policy strategies. Results The results showed that the direction of change could be indicated for most anticipated health effects. For several potential effects, too little knowledge exists to indicate whether any impact will occur, or whether the impact will be positive or negative. For several effects, rough ‘order-of-magnitude’ estimates were considered possible. Factors limiting health impact quantification include: lack of data, multi-causality, unknown impacts considering a high-quality health system, complex cause-effect relations leading to multi-directional impacts, possible changes of present-day response-relations, and difficulties in predicting local climate impacts. Participants considered heat-related mortality and non-endemic vector-borne diseases particularly relevant for climate change adaptation. Conclusions For possible climate related health impacts characterised by ignorance, adaptation policies that focus on enhancing the health system’s and society’s capability of dealing with possible future changes, uncertainties and surprises (e.g. through resilience, flexibility, and adaptive capacity) are

  4. Untangling Risk in Water Supply Systems: What Factors Drive Long-term Adaptation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeff, H. B.; Lin, L.; Band, L. E.; Reed, P. M.; Characklis, G. W.

    2016-12-01

    Deeply uncertain factors like climate change, the hydrologic impacts of urbanization, forest evolution, and long-term demand forecasts make water supply planning a `wicked' problem. The traditional technique of assessing risk based on historical observations can be inadequate in the face of environmental non-stationarity. However, competing models and limited observational data make it difficult for decision makers and experts to agree on how much uncertainty should be built into analyses of risk, particularly at the timescales relevant to long-term investments in water infrastructure. Further, the physical connectivity of these deeply uncertain processes create inter-related systems, amplifying the challenges of a `worst case scenario'. The development of adaptive systems and planning processes provide solutions that have been shown to meet technical, environmental, and social objectives at lower costs. Instead of developing plans with fixed targets for the timing of actions, adaptive plans develop risk metrics and thresholds that are able to integrate new information to determine when conditions reach a `tipping point' which necessitates action. It is an open question as to how new information can be best integrated into the decision-making process (i.e. how much weight do we give new observations relative to the historical record), but a better understanding of the way the relevant systems are expected to evolve and change over time could inform these decisions. In this study, we use linked, dynamic models of temperature and precipitation changes, forest evolution, urbanization, hydrology, and water demand to develop scenarios for an adaptive water management framework that uses risk-based metrics to make short- and long-term decisions. The impact of individual environmental processes on the adaptive capability of this management framework is evaluated through problem formulations that successively increase the complexity of the uncertainty scenarios. Although

  5. Science-policy interface in transformative adaptive flood risk management - decision-making in Austria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thaler, Thomas; Attems, Marie-Sophie; Rauter, Magdalena; Fuchs, Sven

    2016-04-01

    Facing the challenges of climate change, this paper aims to analyse and to evaluate the multiple use of flood alleviation schemes with respect to social transformation in communities exposed to flood hazards in Europe. The overall goals are: (1) the identification of indicators and parameters necessary for strategies to increase societal resilience, (2) an analysis of the institutional settings needed for societal transformation, and (3) perspectives of changing divisions of responsibilities between public and private actors necessary to arrive at more resilient societies. As such, governance is done by people interacting and defining risk mitigation measures as well as climate change adaptation are therefore simultaneously both outcomes of, and productive to, public and private responsibilities. Building off current knowledge this paper focussed on different dimensions of adaptation and mitigation strategies based on social, economic and institutional incentives and settings, centring on the linkages between these different dimensions and complementing existing flood risk governance arrangements. As such, the challenges of adaptation to flood risk will be tackled by converting scientific frameworks into practical assessment and policy advice. This paper used the Formative Scenario Analysis (FSA) as a method to construct well-defined sets of assumptions to gain insight into a system and its potential future development, based on qualitatively assessed impact factors and rated quantitative relations between these factors, such as impact and consistency analysis. The purpose of this approach was to develop scenarios, where participations develop their own strategies how to implement a transformative adaptation strategy in flood risk management. In particular, the interaction between researcher, the public and policy makers was analysed. Challenges and limitations were assessed, such as benefits on costs of adaptation measures, for the implementation of visions to

  6. Using community archetypes to better understand differential community adaptation to wildfire risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carroll, Matthew; Paveglio, Travis

    2016-06-05

    One of the immediate challenges of wildfire management concerns threats to human safety and property in residential areas adjacent to non-cultivated vegetation. One approach for relieving this problem is to increase human community 'adaptiveness' to deal with the risk and reality of fire in a variety of landscapes. The challenge in creating 'fire-adapted communities' (FACs) is the great diversity in character and make-up of populations at risk from wildfire. This paper outlines a recently developed categorization scheme for Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI) communities based on a larger conceptual approach for understanding how social diversity is likely to influence the creation of FACs. The WUI categorization scheme situates four community archetypes on a continuum that recognizes dynamic change in human community functioning. We use results from the WUI classification scheme to outline key characteristics associated with each archetype and results from recent case studies to demonstrate the diversity across WUI communities. Differences among key characteristics of local social context will likely result in the need for different adaptation strategies to wildfire. While the WUI archetypes described here may not be broadly applicable to other parts of the world, we argue that the conceptual approach and strategies for systematically documenting local influences on wildfire adaptation have potential for broad application.This article is part of the themed issue 'The interaction of fire and mankind'. © 2016 The Author(s).

  7. WORK PRECARIOUSNESS: ERGONOMIC RISKS TO OPERATORS OF MACHINES ADAPTED FOR FOREST HARVESTING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stanley Schettino

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT This study aimed to assess different types of machines adapted for mechanized forest harvesting activities in order to quantify the degree of compliance with ergonomic principles applicable to forest machines, as well as the ergonomic risks to which workers are exposed. The following machines were evaluated: a feller buncher adapted into a wheel loader; a mini skidder coupled to an agricultural tractor; and a forest loader adapted to an agricultural tractor; operating in the states of Paraná and Minas Gerais. Biomechanical working conditions were assessed by applying a checklist for simplified assessment of the workplace biomechanical conditions. The forced postures assessment was performed using the REBA - "Rapid Entire Body Assessment" method. In turn, ergonomic classification was through guidelines contained in the ergonomic classification manual "Ergonomic Guidelines for Forest Machines". Moreover, the environmental factors noise, temperature and vibration to which the operators of these machines were exposed were assessed. The results showed all assessed machines had ergonomic standards below those indicated in all assessed aspects, mainly related to access and dimensions of the workplace, need to adopt forced postures during working hours, and exposure to environmental factors assessed above tolerance limits. It is concluded that machines adapted for use in forest harvesting processes have shown significant gaps in relation to ergonomic aspects, presenting high and imminent risk of development of occupational diseases in their operators.

  8. Ensuring Success of Adaptive Control Research Through Project Lifecycle Risk Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pavlock, Kate M.

    2011-01-01

    Lessons Learne: 1. Design-out unnecessary risk to prevent excessive mitigation management during flight. 2. Consider iterative checkouts to confirm or improve human factor characteristics. 3. Consider the total flight test profile to uncover unanticipated human-algorithm interactions. 4. Consider test card cadence as a metric to assess test readiness. 5. Full-scale flight test is critical to development, maturation, and acceptance of adaptive control laws for operational use.

  9. Children and adolescents with migratory experience at risk in language learning and psychosocial adaptation contexts.

    OpenAIRE

    Figueiredo, Sandra; Silva, Carlos Fernandes da; Monteiro, Sara

    2007-01-01

    A compelling body of evidence shows a strong association between psychological, affective and learning variables, related also with the age and gender factors, which are involved in the language learning development process. Children and adolescents with migratory experience (direct/indirect) can develop behaviours at risk in their academic learning and psychosocial adaptation, according to several stressors as anxiety, low motivation, negative attitudes, within a stressed internal l...

  10. Building on the links between climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Vincent, K

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available countries, genetically modified organisms (GMOs) have been embraced to address challenges of low productivity and related occurrences of food insecurity; but that adaptation to climate change may be seen as placing an increased risk on genetic diversity... and terrestrial ecosystems. This is because it can “out-compete” other varieties locally, reducing species composition and thus the gene pool; but also because forces such as wind dispersal and erosion mean that containing the effects of GMOs in one area...

  11. Risk assessment of cadmium-contaminated soil on plant DNA damage using RAPD and physiological indices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu Wan; Yang, Y.S.; Li, P.J.; Zhou, Q.X.; Xie, L.J.; Han, Y.P.

    2009-01-01

    Impact assessment of contaminants in soil is an important issue in environmental quality study and remediation of contaminated land. A random amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD) 'fingerprinting' technique was exhibited to detect genotoxin-induced DNA damage of plants from heavy metal contaminated soil. This study compared the effects occurring at molecular and population levels in barley seedlings exposed to cadmium (Cd) contamination in soil. Results indicate that reduction of root growth and increase of total soluble protein level in the root tips of barley seedlings occurred with the ascending Cd concentrations. For the RAPD analyses, nine 10-base pair (bp) random RAPD primers (decamers) with 60-70% GC content were found to produce unique polymorphic band patterns and subsequently were used to produce a total of 129 RAPD fragments of 144-2639 base pair in molecular size in the root tips of control seedlings. Results produced from nine primers indicate that the changes occurring in RAPD profiles of the root tips following Cd treatment included alterations in band intensity as well as gain or loss of bands compared with the control seedlings. New amplified fragments at molecular size from approximately 154 to 2245 bp appeared almost for 10, 20 and 40 mg L -1 Cd with 9 primers (one-four new polymerase chain reaction, (PCR) products), and the number of missing bands enhanced with the increasing Cd concentration for nine primers. These results suggest that genomic template stability reflecting changes in RAPD profiles were significantly affected and it compared favourably with the traditional indices such as growth and soluble protein level at the above Cd concentrations. The DNA polymorphisms detected by RAPD can be applied as a suitable biomarker assay for detection of the genotoxic effects of Cd stress in soil on plants. As a tool in risk assessment the RAPD assay can be used in characterisation of Cd hazard in soil

  12. ELICITED EXPERT PERCEPTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE RISKS AND ADAPTATION IN AGRICULTURE AND FOOD PRODUCTION THROUGH MENTAL MODELS APPROACH

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suda, Eiko; Kubota, Hiromi; Baba, Kenshi; Hijioka, Yasuaki; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Hanasaki, Naota

    Impacts of climate change have become obvious in agriculture and food production in Japan these days, and researches to adapt to their risks have been conducted as a key effort to cope with the climate change. Numerous scientific findings on climate change impacts have been presented so far; however, prospective risks to be adapted to and their management in the context of individual on-site situations have not been investigated in detail. The structure of climate change risks and their management vary depending on geographical and social features in the regions where the adaptation options should be applied; therefore, a practical adaptation strategy should consider actual on-site situations. This study intended to clarify climate change risks to be adapted to in the Japanese agricultural sector, and factors to be considered in adaptation options, for encouragement of decision-making on adaptation implementation in the field. Semi-structured individual interviews have been conducted with 9 multidisciplinary experts engaging in climate change impacts research in agricultural production, economics, engineering, policy, and so on. Based on the results of the interviews, and the latest literatures available for risk assessment and adaptation, an expert mental model including their perceptions which cover the process from climate change impacts assessment to adaptation has been developed. The prospective risks, adaptation options, and issues to be examined to progress the development of practical and effective adaptation options and to support individual or social decision-making, have been shown on the developed expert mental model. It is the basic information for developing social communication and stakeholders cooperations in climate change adaptation strategies in agriculture and food production in Japan.

  13. Risk and Uncertainties, Analysis and Evaluation: Lessons for Adaptation and Integration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yohe, G.; Dowlatabadi, H.

    1999-01-01

    This paper draws ten lessons from analyses of adaptation to climate change under conditions of risk and uncertainty: (1) Socio-economic systems will likely respond most to extreme realizations of climate change. (2) Systems have been responding to variations in climate for centuries. (3) Future change will effect future citizens and their institutions. (4) Human systems can be the sources of surprise. (5) Perceptions of risk depend upon welfare valuations that depend upon expectations. (6) Adaptive decisions will be made in response to climate change and climate change policy. (7) Analysis of adaptive decisions should recognize the second-best context of those decisions. (8) Climate change offers opportunity as well as risk. (9) All plausible futures should be explored. (10) Multiple methodological approaches should be accommodated. These lessons support two pieces of advice for the Third Assessment Report: (1) Work toward consensus, but not at the expense of thorough examination and reporting of the 'tails' of the distributions of the future. (2) Integrated assessment is only one unifying methodology; others that can better accommodate those tails should be encouraged and embraced. 12 refs

  14. Flash Flood Risk Perception in an Italian Alpine Region. From Research into Adaptive Strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scolobig, A.; de Marchi, B.; Borga, M.

    2009-04-01

    Flash floods are characterised by short lead times and high levels of uncertainty. Adaptive strategies to face them need to take into account not only the physical characteristics of the hydro-geological phenomena, but also peoples' risk perceptions, attitudes and behaviours in case of an emergency. It is quite obvious that a precondition for an effective adaptation, e.g. in the case of a warning, is the awareness of being endangered. At the same time the perceptions of those at risk and their likely actions inform hazard warning strategies and recovery programmes following such events. Usually low risk awareness or "wrong perceptions" of the residents are considered among the causes of an inadequate preparedness or response to flash floods as well as a symptom of a scarce self-protection culture. In this paper we will focus on flood risk perception and on how research on this topic may contribute to design adaptive strategies and give inputs to flood policy decisions. We will report on a flood risk perception study of the population residing in four villages in an Italian Alpine Region (Trentino Alto-Adige), carried out between October 2005 and January 2006. A total of 400 standardised questionnaires were submitted to local residents by face to face interviews. The surveys were preceded by focus groups with officers from agencies in charge of flood risk management and semi-structured and in-depth interviews with policy, scientific and technical experts. Survey results indicated that people are not so worried about hydro-geological phenomena, and think that their community is more endangered than themselves. The knowledge of the territory and danger sources, the unpredictability of flash floods and the feeling of safety induced by structural devices are the main elements which make the difference in shaping residents' perceptions. The study also demonstrated a widespread lack of adoption of preparatory measures among residents, together with a general low

  15. Adaptation of Basel Agreements to the Currency Risks Management in Ukraine and Russia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ekaterina Tikhonovna Sveshnikova

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The article reveals the problem of adapting the Basel standards for managing the market and, in particular, foreign exchange risks to the conditions of the national economies of Ukraine and Russia. Internationality, fictitiousness and speculating of the currency transactions necessitated the transition of national banking systems of Ukraine and Russia to the international standards of Basel Committee. The article describes the history and shows the gradual process of implementation of these standards in the banking law and practice. We have studied the nature of the categories of “market risk” and “foreign exchange risk”. The place of the foreign exchange risk is updated in the classification of banking risks by analyzing the different views, and the mechanism of its effect is identified on the activities of commercial banks. The proposals on copyright issues are presented in particular: the necessity of combining the stock, interest rate and foreign exchange risks in the market risk group, as well as fixing the common regulatory definition of foreign exchange risk in the legislation. In the article the author’s category definition interpretation of “foreign exchange risk management system” is given in the light of its absence in the legal and the economic literature. The author also gives the recommendations to banks on developing the individual models for risk management in accordance with their own needs and current circumstances.

  16. An integrated method for assessing climate-related risks and adaptation alternatives in urban areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yvonne Andersson-Sköld

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The urban environment is a complex structure with interlinked social, ecological and technical structures. Global warming is expected to have a broad variety of impacts, which will add to the complexity. Climate changes will force adaptation, to reduce climate-related risks. Adaptation measures can address one aspect at the time, or aim for a holistic approach to avoid maladaptation. This paper presents a systematic, integrated approach for assessing alternatives for reducing the risks of heat waves, flooding and air pollution in urban settings, with the aim of reducing the risk of maladaptation. The study includes strategies covering different spatial scales, and both the current climate situation and the climate predicted under climate change scenarios. The adaptation strategies investigated included increasing vegetation; selecting density, height and colour of buildings; and retreat or resist (defend against sea-level rise. Their effectiveness was assessed with regard to not only flooding, heat stress and air quality but also with regard to resource use, emissions to air (incl. GHG, soil and water, and people’s perceptions and vulnerability. The effectiveness of the strategies were ranked on a common scale (from −3 to 3 in an integrated assessment. Integrated assessments are recommended, as they help identify the most sustainable solutions, but to reduce the risk of maladaptation they require experts from a variety of disciplines. The most generally applicable recommendation, derived from the integrated assessment here, taking into account both expertise from different municipal departments, literature surveys, life cycle assessments and publics perceptions, is to increase the urban greenery, as it contributes to several positive aspects such as heat stress mitigation, air quality improvement, effective storm-water and flood-risk management, and it has several positive social impacts. The most favourable alternative was compact, mid

  17. Household Adaptive Behavior in Response to Coastal Flood Risk and External Stressors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buchanan, M. K.

    2017-12-01

    Approximately forty percent of the world's population sits along ocean coastlines. This urban exposure to flooding is increasing due to population growth and sea level rise resulting from anthropogenic climate change. Recent research improving the characterization of physical hazards from climate change on the coastal zone has helped cities assess their risks. This work includes improving our understanding of the rate and magnitude of sea level rise, the change in distribution of tropical cyclones, and the resulting frequency and severity of flooding on global to local scales. However, the ability of settlements to cope or thrive under changing climate conditions will likely depend on the cooperation and initiative of households, regardless of any governmental efforts to reduce risk. Understanding individuals' likely responses to changing coastal hazards is thus critical for decision-makers to plan for a sustainable future. Individuals may be motivated not only by information regarding emerging flood hazards, but also by cognitive and contextual factors. For governments to develop effective adaptation policies, it is important to understand what factors tend to motivate household adaptation. We apply principles from economics and psychology to investigate how people respond to various existing adaptation options and policies, using a household survey with experiments in New York City neighborhoods affected by Hurricane Sandy. We investigate a comprehensive set of factors that may influence household adaptive behavior. A striking 64% of homeowners and 83% of renters intend to relocate among different plausible future conditions, such as frequent nuisance flooding and the adaptation of peers. This amount is substantial considering the political sensitivity of `retreat' and the lack of regional and federal preparation for large-scale climate-induced migration.

  18. Scenario based approach to structural damage detection and its value in a risk and reliability perspective

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hovgaard, Mads Knude; Hansen, Jannick Balleby; Brincker, Rune

    2013-01-01

    A scenario- and vibration based structural damage detection method is demonstrated though simulation. The method is Finite Element (FE) based. The value of the monitoring is calculated using structural reliability theory. A high cycle fatigue crack propagation model is assumed as the damage mecha......- and without monitoring. Monte Carlo Sampling (MCS) is used to estimate the probabilities and the tower of an onshore NREL 5MW wind turbine is given as a calculation case......A scenario- and vibration based structural damage detection method is demonstrated though simulation. The method is Finite Element (FE) based. The value of the monitoring is calculated using structural reliability theory. A high cycle fatigue crack propagation model is assumed as the damage...

  19. Adaptive Failure Identification for Healthcare Risk Analysis and Its Application on E-Healthcare

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kuo-Chung Chu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available To satisfy the requirement for diverse risk preferences, we propose a generic risk priority number (GRPN function that assigns a risk weight to each parameter such that they represent individual organization/department/process preferences for the parameters. This research applies GRPN function-based model to differentiate the types of risk, and primary data are generated through simulation. We also conduct sensitivity analysis on correlation and regression to compare it with the traditional RPN (TRPN. The proposed model outperforms the TRPN model and provides a practical, effective, and adaptive method for risk evaluation. In particular, the defined GRPN function offers a new method to prioritize failure modes in failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA. The different risk preferences considered in the healthcare example show that the modified FMEA model can take into account the various risk factors and prioritize failure modes more accurately. In addition, the model also can apply to a generic e-healthcare service environment with a hierarchical architecture.

  20. Flood risk perception and adaptation capacity: a contribution to the socio-hydrology debate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Fuchs

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Dealing with flood hazard and risk requires approaches rooted in both natural and social sciences, which provided the nexus for the ongoing debate on socio-hydrology. Various combinations of non-structural and structural flood risk reduction options are available to communities. Focusing on flood risk and the information associated with it, developing risk management plans is required but often overlooks public perception of a threat. The perception of risk varies in many different ways, especially between the authorities and the affected public. It is because of this disconnection that many risk management plans concerning floods have failed in the past. This paper examines the private adaptation capacity and willingness with respect to flooding in two different catchments in Greece prone to multiple flood events during the last 20 years. Two studies (East Attica and Evros were carried out, comprised of a survey questionnaire of 155 and 157 individuals, from a peri-urban (East Attica and a rural (Evros area, respectively, and they focused on those vulnerable to periodic (rural area and flash floods (peri-urban area. Based on the comparisons drawn from these responses, and identifying key issues to be addressed when flood risk management plans are implemented, improvements are being recommended for the social dimension surrounding such implementation. As such, the paper contributes to the ongoing discussion on human–environment interaction in socio-hydrology.

  1. Flood risk perception and adaptation capacity: a contribution to the socio-hydrology debate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuchs, Sven; Karagiorgos, Konstantinos; Kitikidou, Kyriaki; Maris, Fotios; Paparrizos, Spyridon; Thaler, Thomas

    2017-06-01

    Dealing with flood hazard and risk requires approaches rooted in both natural and social sciences, which provided the nexus for the ongoing debate on socio-hydrology. Various combinations of non-structural and structural flood risk reduction options are available to communities. Focusing on flood risk and the information associated with it, developing risk management plans is required but often overlooks public perception of a threat. The perception of risk varies in many different ways, especially between the authorities and the affected public. It is because of this disconnection that many risk management plans concerning floods have failed in the past. This paper examines the private adaptation capacity and willingness with respect to flooding in two different catchments in Greece prone to multiple flood events during the last 20 years. Two studies (East Attica and Evros) were carried out, comprised of a survey questionnaire of 155 and 157 individuals, from a peri-urban (East Attica) and a rural (Evros) area, respectively, and they focused on those vulnerable to periodic (rural area) and flash floods (peri-urban area). Based on the comparisons drawn from these responses, and identifying key issues to be addressed when flood risk management plans are implemented, improvements are being recommended for the social dimension surrounding such implementation. As such, the paper contributes to the ongoing discussion on human-environment interaction in socio-hydrology.

  2. Disruptions in adaptation of sudden-onset and slow-onset risks: insights from a local case in the Andes of Peru for global policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huggel, Christian; Carey, Mark; Frey, Holger; Jurt, Christine; Mechler, Reinhard; Motschmann, Alina; Vicuña, Luis

    2017-04-01

    Climatic changes involve emergence and changes of both sudden-onset and slow-onset risks. In the field of disaster risk reduction a solid range of strategies and measures has been developed to address sudden-onset risks such as floods, mass movements or storms. Comparably less experience is available for management of slow-onset risks. While, for instance, drought prone regions do have important knowledge how to cope with such conditions in other regions where climatic changes have induced new challenges and risks there is limited experience about how to adapt to slow-onset processes and risks. Examples are impacts of sea level rise in coastal regions or glacier shrinkage in mountain regions. The lack of understanding of how to address impacts from slow-onset processes has recently also been highlighted by the Executive Committee of the Warsaw International Mechanism on Loss and Damage (WIM) acting under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). In climate change science, practice and policy it is often assumed that risk management and climate change adaptation would see a seamless continuum when addressing both sudden-onset and slow-onset risks. Here we draw on recent experiences from the Andes of Peru showing that management of, and adaptation to combined sudden-onset and slow-onset impacts of climate change may involve serious social disruption. Carhuaz, a city in the Cordillera Blanca of Peru with a number of local communities pertaining to it, is affected by multiple effects of climate change and glacier shrinkage. After a flood event from glacier lake 513 a flood early warning system has been developed and installed. Multiple use and demand of glacier melt water makes water resource management a challenge and conflicts arise especially during the dry season when water is scarce. The drought at the end of 2016 over much of the tropical Andes has resulted in a situation where local communities started to vigorously and violently turn

  3. Adaptation of a Counseling Intervention to Address Multiple Cancer Risk Factors among Overweight/Obese Latino Smokers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castro, Yessenia; Fernández, Maria E.; Strong, Larkin L.; Stewart, Diana W.; Krasny, Sarah; Hernandez Robles, Eden; Heredia, Natalia; Spears, Claire A.; Correa-Fernández, Virmarie; Eakin, Elizabeth; Resnicow, Ken; Basen-Engquist, Karen; Wetter, David W.

    2015-01-01

    More than 60% of cancer-related deaths in the United States are attributable to tobacco use, poor nutrition, and physical inactivity, and these risk factors tend to cluster together. Thus, strategies for cancer risk reduction would benefit from addressing multiple health risk behaviors. We adapted an evidence-based intervention grounded in social…

  4. Improving the use of crop models for risk assessment and climate change adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Challinor, Andrew J; Müller, Christoph; Asseng, Senthold; Deva, Chetan; Nicklin, Kathryn Jane; Wallach, Daniel; Vanuytrecht, Eline; Whitfield, Stephen; Ramirez-Villegas, Julian; Koehler, Ann-Kristin

    2018-01-01

    Crop models are used for an increasingly broad range of applications, with a commensurate proliferation of methods. Careful framing of research questions and development of targeted and appropriate methods are therefore increasingly important. In conjunction with the other authors in this special issue, we have developed a set of criteria for use of crop models in assessments of impacts, adaptation and risk. Our analysis drew on the other papers in this special issue, and on our experience in the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2017 and the MACSUR, AgMIP and ISIMIP projects. The criteria were used to assess how improvements could be made to the framing of climate change risks, and to outline the good practice and new developments that are needed to improve risk assessment. Key areas of good practice include: i. the development, running and documentation of crop models, with attention given to issues of spatial scale and complexity; ii. the methods used to form crop-climate ensembles, which can be based on model skill and/or spread; iii. the methods used to assess adaptation, which need broadening to account for technological development and to reflect the full range options available. The analysis highlights the limitations of focussing only on projections of future impacts and adaptation options using pre-determined time slices. Whilst this long-standing approach may remain an essential component of risk assessments, we identify three further key components: 1.Working with stakeholders to identify the timing of risks. What are the key vulnerabilities of food systems and what does crop-climate modelling tell us about when those systems are at risk?2.Use of multiple methods that critically assess the use of climate model output and avoid any presumption that analyses should begin and end with gridded output.3.Increasing transparency and inter-comparability in risk assessments. Whilst studies frequently produce ranges that quantify uncertainty, the assumptions

  5. City of Iqaluit's climate change impacts, infrastructure risks and adaptive capacity project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nielsen, D.; Kronenberger, J.

    2007-03-01

    The City of Iqaluit is an Arctic community that is very susceptible to the stresses of climate change. The city is challenged by increased flooding, coastal erosion and ground instability caused by melting of the permafrost layer. In response, the City of Iqaluit has created policies to reduce greenhouse gases and act on climate change. A project has also been launched to develop adaptation strategies, with particular focus on infrastructure vulnerability given the environmental and climate change in the Canadian Arctic. The purpose of the study is to evaluate the biophysical exposure and hazards on Arctic coasts subject to effects of climate change, identify past and current management strategies used to manage risks in coastal communities which have already experienced environmental change, and to evaluate the adaptive capacity of communities for dealing with coastal hazards throughout the Arctic. This document identified the risks to Iqaluit's infrastructure, including buildings, roads, water supply, wastewater treatment and waste disposal systems. Adaptation options were also developed. These ranged from educational programs and retrofits to policy changes and building standard amendments. refs., tabs., figs

  6. Effects of Adapted Dialogic Reading on Oral Language and Vocabulary Knowledge of Latino Preschoolers at Risk for English Language Delays

    Science.gov (United States)

    Correa, Vivian I.; Lo, Ya-Yu; Godfrey-Hurrell, Kristi; Swart, Katie; Baker, Doris Luft

    2015-01-01

    In this single-case design study, we examined the effects of an adapted dialogic reading intervention on the oral language and vocabulary skills of four Latino preschool children who were at risk for English language delays. We used adapted dialogic reading strategies in English and two literacy games that included a rapid naming activity and…

  7. An assessment of the impact of climate adaptation measures to reduce flood risk on ecosystem services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verburg, Peter H; Koomen, Eric; Hilferink, Maarten; Pérez-Soba, Marta; Lesschen, Jan Peter

    Measures of climate change adaptation often involve modification of land use and land use planning practices. Such changes in land use affect the provision of various ecosystem goods and services. Therefore, it is likely that adaptation measures may result in synergies and trade-offs between a range of ecosystems goods and services. An integrative land use modelling approach is presented to assess such impacts for the European Union. A reference scenario accounts for current trends in global drivers and includes a number of important policy developments that correspond to on-going changes in European policies. The reference scenario is compared to a policy scenario in which a range of measures is implemented to regulate flood risk and protect soils under conditions of climate change. The impacts of the simulated land use dynamics are assessed for four key indicators of ecosystem service provision: flood risk, carbon sequestration, habitat connectivity and biodiversity. The results indicate a large spatial variation in the consequences of the adaptation measures on the provisioning of ecosystem services. Synergies are frequently observed at the location of the measures itself, whereas trade-offs are found at other locations. Reducing land use intensity in specific parts of the catchment may lead to increased pressure in other regions, resulting in trade-offs. Consequently, when aggregating the results to larger spatial scales the positive and negative impacts may be off-set, indicating the need for detailed spatial assessments. The modelled results indicate that for a careful planning and evaluation of adaptation measures it is needed to consider the trade-offs accounting for the negative effects of a measure at locations distant from the actual measure. Integrated land use modelling can help land use planning in such complex trade-off evaluation by providing evidence on synergies and trade-offs between ecosystem services, different policy fields and societal

  8. Assessment of urban pluvial flood risk and efficiency of adaptation options through simulations - A new generation of urban planning tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Löwe, Roland; Urich, Christian; Sto. Domingo, Nina; Mark, Ole; Deletic, Ana; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

    2017-07-01

    We present a new framework for flexible testing of flood risk adaptation strategies in a variety of urban development and climate scenarios. This framework couples the 1D-2D hydrodynamic simulation package MIKE FLOOD with the agent-based urban development model DAnCE4Water and provides the possibility to systematically test various flood risk adaptation measures ranging from large infrastructure changes over decentralised water management to urban planning policies. We have tested the framework in a case study in Melbourne, Australia considering 9 scenarios for urban development and climate and 32 potential combinations of flood adaptation measures. We found that the performance of adaptation measures strongly depended on the considered climate and urban development scenario and the other implementation measures implemented, suggesting that adaptive strategies are preferable over one-off investments. Urban planning policies proved to be an efficient means for the reduction of flood risk, while implementing property buyback and pipe increases in a guideline-oriented manner was too costly. Random variations in location and time point of urban development could have significant impact on flood risk and would in some cases outweigh the benefits of less efficient adaptation strategies. The results of our setup can serve as an input for robust decision making frameworks and thus support the identification of flood risk adaptation measures that are economically efficient and robust to variations of climate and urban layout.

  9. Genetic risk prediction using a spatial autoregressive model with adaptive lasso.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen, Yalu; Shen, Xiaoxi; Lu, Qing

    2018-05-31

    With rapidly evolving high-throughput technologies, studies are being initiated to accelerate the process toward precision medicine. The collection of the vast amounts of sequencing data provides us with great opportunities to systematically study the role of a deep catalog of sequencing variants in risk prediction. Nevertheless, the massive amount of noise signals and low frequencies of rare variants in sequencing data pose great analytical challenges on risk prediction modeling. Motivated by the development in spatial statistics, we propose a spatial autoregressive model with adaptive lasso (SARAL) for risk prediction modeling using high-dimensional sequencing data. The SARAL is a set-based approach, and thus, it reduces the data dimension and accumulates genetic effects within a single-nucleotide variant (SNV) set. Moreover, it allows different SNV sets having various magnitudes and directions of effect sizes, which reflects the nature of complex diseases. With the adaptive lasso implemented, SARAL can shrink the effects of noise SNV sets to be zero and, thus, further improve prediction accuracy. Through simulation studies, we demonstrate that, overall, SARAL is comparable to, if not better than, the genomic best linear unbiased prediction method. The method is further illustrated by an application to the sequencing data from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  10. Adolescents Misperceive and Are Influenced By High Status Peers' Health Risk, Deviant, and Adaptive Behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helms, Sarah W.; Choukas-Bradley, Sophia; Widman, Laura; Giletta, Matteo; Cohen, Geoffrey L.; Prinstein, Mitchell J.

    2015-01-01

    Most peer influence research examines socialization between adolescents and their best friends. Yet, adolescents also are influenced by popular peers, perhaps due to misperceptions of social norms. This research examined the extent to which out-group and in-group adolescents misperceive the frequencies of peers' deviant, health risk, and adaptive behaviors in different reputation-based peer crowds (Study 1) and the prospective associations between perceptions of high status peers' and adolescents' own substance use over 2.5 years (Study 2). Study 1 examined 235 adolescents' reported deviant (vandalism, theft), health risk (substance use, sexual risk), and adaptive (exercise, studying) behavior, and their perceptions of Jocks', Populars', Burnouts', and Brains' engagement in the same behaviors. Peer nominations identified adolescents in each peer crowd. Jocks and Populars were rated as higher status than Brains and Burnouts. Results indicated that peer crowd stereotypes are caricatures. Misperceptions of high status crowds were dramatic, but for many behaviors, no differences between Populars'/Jocks' and others' actual reported behaviors were revealed. Study 2 assessed 166 adolescents' substance use and their perceptions of popular peers' (i.e., peers high in peer perceived popularity) substance use. Parallel process latent growth analyses revealed that higher perceptions of popular peers' substance use in Grade 9 (intercept) significantly predicted steeper increases in adolescents' own substance use from Grade 9 to 11 (slope). Results from both studies, utilizing different methods, offer evidence to suggest that adolescents misperceive high status peers' risk behaviors, and these misperceptions may predict adolescents' own risk behavior engagement. PMID:25365121

  11. Adolescents misperceive and are influenced by high-status peers' health risk, deviant, and adaptive behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helms, Sarah W; Choukas-Bradley, Sophia; Widman, Laura; Giletta, Matteo; Cohen, Geoffrey L; Prinstein, Mitchell J

    2014-12-01

    Most peer influence research examines socialization between adolescents and their best friends. Yet, adolescents also are influenced by popular peers, perhaps due to misperceptions of social norms. This research examined the extent to which out-group and in-group adolescents misperceive the frequencies of peers' deviant, health risk, and adaptive behaviors in different reputation-based peer crowds (Study 1) and the prospective associations between perceptions of high-status peers' and adolescents' own substance use over 2.5 years (Study 2). Study 1 examined 235 adolescents' reported deviant (vandalism, theft), health risk (substance use, sexual risk), and adaptive (exercise, studying) behavior, and their perceptions of jocks', populars', burnouts', and brains' engagement in the same behaviors. Peer nominations identified adolescents in each peer crowd. Jocks and populars were rated as higher status than brains and burnouts. Results indicated that peer crowd stereotypes are caricatures. Misperceptions of high-status crowds were dramatic, but for many behaviors, no differences between populars'/jocks' and others' actual reported behaviors were revealed. Study 2 assessed 166 adolescents' substance use and their perceptions of popular peers' (i.e., peers high in peer perceived popularity) substance use. Parallel process latent growth analyses revealed that higher perceptions of popular peers' substance use in Grade 9 (intercept) significantly predicted steeper increases in adolescents' own substance use from Grade 9 to 11 (slope). Results from both studies, utilizing different methods, offer evidence to suggest that adolescents misperceive high-status peers' risk behaviors, and these misperceptions may predict adolescents' own risk behavior engagement. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

  12. Screening of large panel of gastrointestinal peptide plasma levels is not adapted for the evaluation of digestive damage following irradiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dublineau, I.; Dudoignon, N.; Monti, P.; Combes, O.; Wysocki, J.; Grison, S.; Baudelin, C.; Griffiths, N.M.; Scanff, P.

    2004-01-01

    The aim of this study was to assess the potential of gastrointestinal peptide plasma levels as biomarkers of radiation-induced digestive tract damage. To this end, plasma levels of substance P, GRP, motilin, PYY, somatostatin-28, gastrin, and neurotensin were followed for up to 5 days in pigs after a 16-Gy whole-body X-irradiation, completed by a histopathological study performed at 5 days. Each peptide gave a specific response to irradiation. The plasma levels of GRP and substance P were not modified by irradiation exposure; neither were those of motilin and PYY. Concerning gastrin, a 2-3-fold increase of plasma concentration was observed in pig, which presented the most important histological alterations of the stomach. The plasma levels of somatostatin, unchanged from 1 to 4 days after irradiation, was also increased by 130% at 5 days. In contrast, a diminution of neurotensin plasma levels was noted, firstly at 1 day (-88%), and from 3 days after exposure (-50%). The present study suggested that changes in gastrin and neurotensin plasma levels were associated with structural alterations of the stomach and ileum, respectively, indicating that they may be relevant biological indicators of radiation-induced digestive damage to these segments. (author)

  13. Oxidative DNA damage in bone marrow cells of patients with low-risk myelodysplastic syndrome

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Novotná, Božena; Bagryantseva, Yana; Šišková, M.; Neuwirtová, R.

    2009-01-01

    Roč. 33, č. 2 (2009), s. 340-343 ISSN 0145-2126 R&D Projects: GA MZd NR8265 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z50390512 Keywords : Myelodysplastic syndrome * Refractory anemia * Oxidative DNA damage Subject RIV: EB - Genetics ; Molecular Biology Impact factor: 2.358, year: 2009

  14. [Sound levels of the Piezosurgery. Risk of permanent damage to hearing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Blakenburg, J.J.; Both, C.J.; Borstlap, W.A.; Damme, P.A. van

    2007-01-01

    In the past, research has regularly been carried out concerning the sound levels of various drilling devices and the impact these have on those who regularly use these devices. The present research is concerned with the possible permanent damage to hearing which can occur during the use of a newly

  15. Risk-based damage potential and loss estimation of extreme flooding scenarios in the Austrian Federal Province of Tyrol

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Huttenlau

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Within the last decades serious flooding events occurred in many parts of Europe and especially in 2005 the Austrian Federal Province of Tyrol was serious affected. These events in general and particularly the 2005 event have sensitised decision makers and the public. Beside discussions pertaining to protection goals and lessons learnt, the issue concerning potential consequences of extreme and severe flooding events has been raised. Additionally to the general interest of the public, decision makers of the insurance industry, public authorities, and responsible politicians are especially confronted with the question of possible consequences of extreme events. Answers thereof are necessary for the implementation of preventive appropriate risk management strategies. Thereby, property and liability losses reflect a large proportion of the direct tangible losses. These are of great interest for the insurance sector and can be understood as main indicators to interpret the severity of potential events. The natural scientific-technical risk analysis concept provides a predefined and structured framework to analyse the quantities of affected elements at risk, their corresponding damage potentials, and the potential losses. Generally, this risk concept framework follows the process steps hazard analysis, exposition analysis, and consequence analysis. Additionally to the conventional hazard analysis, the potential amount of endangered elements and their corresponding damage potentials were analysed and, thereupon, concrete losses were estimated. These took the specific vulnerability of the various individual elements at risk into consideration. The present flood risk analysis estimates firstly the general exposures of the risk indicators in the study area and secondly analyses the specific exposures and consequences of five extreme event scenarios. In order to precisely identify, localize, and characterize the relevant risk indicators of buildings

  16. Integrated urban flood risk assessment – adapting a multicriteria approach to a city

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Kubal

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Flood risk assessment is an essential part of flood risk management. As part of the new EU flood directive it is becoming increasingly more popular in European flood policy. Particularly cities with a high concentration of people and goods are vulnerable to floods. This paper introduces the adaptation of a novel method of multicriteria flood risk assessment, that was recently developed for the more rural Mulde river basin, to a city. The study site is Leipzig, Germany. The "urban" approach includes a specific urban-type set of economic, social and ecological flood risk criteria, which focus on urban issues: population and vulnerable groups, differentiated residential land use classes, areas with social and health care but also ecological indicators such as recreational urban green spaces. These criteria are integrated using a "multicriteria decision rule" based on an additive weighting procedure which is implemented into the software tool FloodCalc urban. Based on different weighting sets we provide evidence of where the most flood-prone areas are located in a city. Furthermore, we can show that with an increasing inundation extent it is both the social and the economic risks that strongly increase.

  17. Towards Improved Linkage of Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation in Health: A Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banwell, Nicola; Rutherford, Shannon; Mackey, Brendan; Chu, Cordia

    2018-01-01

    Climate change and climate-sensitive disasters significantly impact health. Linking Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) and Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) is essential for addressing these ever present, complex and increasing risks. Recent calls have been made to build these links in health. However, there is a need to clearly articulate why linking DRR and CCA is important in health. Furthermore, little is known about how DRR and CCA should be linked in health. By extensively examining relevant literature, this review presents the current state of knowledge of linking DRR and CCA in health. This includes the potential for maximising conceptual synergies such as building resilience, and reducing vulnerability and risk. Additionally, technical and operational synergies are identified to link DRR and CCA in health, including: policy, Early Warning Systems, vulnerability and risk assessment, health systems strengthening, infrastructure resilience, disaster preparedness and response, and health impact pathways. Public health actors have a central role in building these links due to their expertise, work functions, and experience in addressing complex health risks. The review concludes with recommendations for future research, including how to better link DRR and CCA in health; and the opportunities, challenges and enablers to build and sustain these links. PMID:29670057

  18. Towards a Fuzzy Bayesian Network Based Approach for Safety Risk Analysis of Tunnel-Induced Pipeline Damage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Limao; Wu, Xianguo; Qin, Yawei; Skibniewski, Miroslaw J; Liu, Wenli

    2016-02-01

    Tunneling excavation is bound to produce significant disturbances to surrounding environments, and the tunnel-induced damage to adjacent underground buried pipelines is of considerable importance for geotechnical practice. A fuzzy Bayesian networks (FBNs) based approach for safety risk analysis is developed in this article with detailed step-by-step procedures, consisting of risk mechanism analysis, the FBN model establishment, fuzzification, FBN-based inference, defuzzification, and decision making. In accordance with the failure mechanism analysis, a tunnel-induced pipeline damage model is proposed to reveal the cause-effect relationships between the pipeline damage and its influential variables. In terms of the fuzzification process, an expert confidence indicator is proposed to reveal the reliability of the data when determining the fuzzy probability of occurrence of basic events, with both the judgment ability level and the subjectivity reliability level taken into account. By means of the fuzzy Bayesian inference, the approach proposed in this article is capable of calculating the probability distribution of potential safety risks and identifying the most likely potential causes of accidents under both prior knowledge and given evidence circumstances. A case concerning the safety analysis of underground buried pipelines adjacent to the construction of the Wuhan Yangtze River Tunnel is presented. The results demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed FBN approach and its application potential. The proposed approach can be used as a decision tool to provide support for safety assurance and management in tunnel construction, and thus increase the likelihood of a successful project in a complex project environment. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  19. The Climate Adaptation Frontier

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Preston, Benjamin L [ORNL

    2013-01-01

    Climate adaptation has emerged as a mainstream risk management strategy for assisting in maintaining socio-ecological systems within the boundaries of a safe operating space. Yet, there are limits to the ability of systems to adapt. Here, we introduce the concept of an adaptation frontier , which is defined as a socio-ecological system s transitional adaptive operating space between safe and unsafe domains. A number of driving forces are responsible for determining the sustainability of systems on the frontier. These include path dependence, adaptation/development deficits, values conflicts and discounting of future loss and damage. The cumulative implications of these driving forces are highly uncertain. Nevertheless, the fact that a broad range of systems already persist at the edge of their frontiers suggests a high likelihood that some limits will eventually be exceeded. The resulting system transformation is likely to manifest as anticipatory modification of management objectives or loss and damage. These outcomes vary significantly with respect to their ethical implications. Successful navigation of the adaptation frontier will necessitate new paradigms of risk governance to elicit knowledge that encourages reflexive reevaluation of societal values that enable or constrain sustainability.

  20. Is all risk bad? Young adult cigarette smokers fail to take adaptive risk in a laboratory decision-making test.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dean, Andy C; Sugar, Catherine A; Hellemann, Gerhard; London, Edythe D

    2011-06-01

    Cigarette smoking has been linked to real-world risky behavior, but this association has been based largely on retrospective self-reports. Limitations of self-report data can be avoided by using laboratory, performance-based measures, such as the Balloon Analogue Risk Task (BART; Lejuez et al., J Exp Psychol Appl 8:75-84, 2002). Initial studies have suggested that smokers display greater risk-taking on this task than nonsmokers, but these studies did not account for drug abuse and psychiatric comorbidities, which are commonplace among smokers. We sought to examine the performance of smokers and nonsmokers on the BART after excluding drug abuse and psychiatric comorbidities. We conducted a study of late adolescent/young adult (age 18 to 21) smokers (n = 26) and nonsmokers (n = 38) performing the BART and excluded individuals with positive drug or alcohol toxicology screens, substance abuse or dependence diagnoses, and/or current psychiatric conditions. Contrary to previous findings, smokers did not display greater risk-taking on the BART than nonsmokers. In fact, when performance was examined trial-by-trial, the nonsmokers displayed progressively greater pumping relative to smokers over time (p adaptive.

  1. Climate Change and Infectious Disease Risk in Western Europe: A Survey of Dutch Expert Opinion on Adaptation Responses and Actors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akin, Su-Mia; Martens, Pim; Huynen, Maud M T E

    2015-08-18

    There is growing evidence of climate change affecting infectious disease risk in Western Europe. The call for effective adaptation to this challenge becomes increasingly stronger. This paper presents the results of a survey exploring Dutch expert perspectives on adaptation responses to climate change impacts on infectious disease risk in Western Europe. Additionally, the survey explores the expert sample's prioritization of mitigation and adaptation, and expert views on the willingness and capacity of relevant actors to respond to climate change. An integrated view on the causation of infectious disease risk is employed, including multiple (climatic and non-climatic) factors. The results show that the experts consider some adaptation responses as relatively more cost-effective, like fostering interagency and community partnerships, or beneficial to health, such as outbreak investigation and response. Expert opinions converge and diverge for different adaptation responses. Regarding the prioritization of mitigation and adaptation responses expert perspectives converge towards a 50/50 budgetary allocation. The experts consider the national government/health authority as the most capable actor to respond to climate change-induced infectious disease risk. Divergence and consensus among expert opinions can influence adaptation policy processes. Further research is necessary to uncover prevailing expert perspectives and their roots, and compare these.

  2. Context-dependent planktivory: interacting effects of turbidity and predation risk on adaptive foraging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pangle, Kevin L.; Malinich, Timothy D.; Bunnell, David B.; DeVries, Dennis R.; Ludsin, Stuart A.

    2012-01-01

    By shaping species interactions, adaptive phenotypic plasticity can profoundly influence ecosystems. Predicting such outcomes has proven difficult, however, owing in part to the dependence of plasticity on the environmental context. Of particular relevance are environmental factors that affect sensory performance in organisms in ways that alter the tradeoffs associated with adaptive phenotypic responses. We explored the influence of turbidity, which simultaneously and differentially affects the sensory performance of consumers at multiple trophic levels, on the indirect effect of a top predator (piscivorous fish) on a basal prey resource (zooplankton) that is mediated through changes in the plastic foraging behavior of an intermediate consumer (zooplanktivorous fish). We first generated theoretical predictions of the adaptive foraging response of a zooplanktivore across wide gradients of turbidity and predation risk by a piscivore. Our model predicted that predation risk can change the negative relationship between intermediate consumer foraging and turbidity into a humped-shaped (unimodal) one in which foraging is low in both clear and highly turbid conditions due to foraging-related risk and visual constraints, respectively. Consequently, the positive trait-mediated indirect effect (TMIE) of the top predator on the basal resource is predicted to peak at low turbidity and decline thereafter until it reaches an asymptote of zero at intermediate turbidity levels (when foraging equals that which is predicted when the top predator is absent). We used field observations and a laboratory experiment to test our model predictions. In support, we found humped-shaped relationships between planktivory and turbidity for several zooplanktivorous fishes from diverse freshwater ecosystems with predation risk. Further, our experiment demonstrated that predation risk reduced zooplanktivory by yellow perch (Perca flavescens) at a low turbidity, but had no effect on consumption at

  3. Knowledge-Based Energy Damage Model for Evaluating Industrialised Building Systems (IBS Occupational Health and Safety (OHS Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abas Nor Haslinda

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Malaysia’s construction industry has been long considered hazardous, owing to its poor health and safety record. It is proposed that one of the ways to improve safety and health in the construction industry is through the implementation of ‘off-site’ systems, commonly termed ‘industrialised building systems (IBS’ in Malaysia. This is deemed safer based on the risk concept of reduced exposure, brought about by the reduction in onsite workers; however, no method yet exists for determining the relative safety of various construction methods, including IBS. This study presents a comparative evaluation of the occupational health and safety (OHS risk presented by different construction approaches, namely IBS and traditional methods. The evaluation involved developing a model based on the concept of ‘argumentation theory’, which helps construction designers integrate the management of OHS risk into the design process. In addition, an ‘energy damage model’ was used as an underpinning framework. Development of the model was achieved through three phases, namely Phase I – knowledge acquisitaion, Phase II – argument trees mapping, and Phase III – validation of the model. The research revealed that different approaches/methods of construction projects carried a different level of energy damage, depending on how the activities were carried out. A study of the way in which the risks change from one construction process to another shows that there is a difference in the profile of OHS risk between IBS construction and traditional methods.Therefore, whether the option is an IBS or traditional approach, the fundamental idea of the model is to motivate construction designers or decision-makers to address safety in the design process and encourage them to examine carefully the probable OHS risk variables surrounding an action, thus preventing accidents in construction.

  4. Mapping Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation: progress in South Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Storie, Judith M.

    2018-05-01

    Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) and Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) strategies in Africa are on the increase. South Africa is no different, and a number of strategies have seen the light in aid of reducing disaster risk and adapting to cli-mate change. The DRR and CCA processes include the mapping of location and extent of known and potential hazards, vulnerable communities and environments, and opportunities that may exist to manage these risks. However, the mapping of often fast-changing urban and rural spaces in a standardized manner presents challenges that relate to processes, scales of data capture, level of detail recorded, software and compatibility related to data formats and net-works, human resources skills and understanding, as well as differences in approaches to the nature in which the map-ping processes are executed and spatial data is managed. As a result, projects and implementation of strategies that re-late to the use of such data is affected, and the success of activities based on the data may therefore be uncertain. This paper investigates data custodianship and data categories that is processed and managed across South Africa. It explores the process and content management of disaster risk and climate change related information and defines the challenges that exist in terms of governance. The paper also comments on the challenges and potential solutions for the situation as it gives rise to varying degrees of accuracy, effectiveness for use, and applicability of the spatial data available to affect DRR and improve the value of CCA programmes in the region.

  5. Coastal and river flood risk analyses for guiding economically optimal flood adaptation policies: a country-scale study for Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haer, Toon; Botzen, W. J. Wouter; van Roomen, Vincent; Connor, Harry; Zavala-Hidalgo, Jorge; Eilander, Dirk M.; Ward, Philip J.

    2018-06-01

    Many countries around the world face increasing impacts from flooding due to socio-economic development in flood-prone areas, which may be enhanced in intensity and frequency as a result of climate change. With increasing flood risk, it is becoming more important to be able to assess the costs and benefits of adaptation strategies. To guide the design of such strategies, policy makers need tools to prioritize where adaptation is needed and how much adaptation funds are required. In this country-scale study, we show how flood risk analyses can be used in cost-benefit analyses to prioritize investments in flood adaptation strategies in Mexico under future climate scenarios. Moreover, given the often limited availability of detailed local data for such analyses, we show how state-of-the-art global data and flood risk assessment models can be applied for a detailed assessment of optimal flood-protection strategies. Our results show that especially states along the Gulf of Mexico have considerable economic benefits from investments in adaptation that limit risks from both river and coastal floods, and that increased flood-protection standards are economically beneficial for many Mexican states. We discuss the sensitivity of our results to modelling uncertainties, the transferability of our modelling approach and policy implications. This article is part of the theme issue `Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

  6. Integrating community based disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation: examples from the Pacific

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Gero

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available It is acknowledged by academics and development practitioners alike that many common strategies addressing community based disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation duplicate each other. Thus, there is a strong push to integrate the two fields to enhance aid effectiveness and reduce confusion for communities. Examples of community based disaster risk reduction (DRR and climate change adaptation (CCA projects are presented to highlight some of the ways these issues are tackled in the Pacific. Various approaches are employed but all aim to reduce the vulnerability and enhance the resilience of local communities to the impacts of climate change and disasters. By focusing on three case studies, elements of best practice are drawn out to illustrate how DRR and CCA can be integrated for enhanced aid effectiveness, and also look at ways in which these two often overlapping fields can be better coordinated in ongoing and future projects. Projects that address vulnerability holistically, and target the overall needs and capacity of the community are found to be effective in enhancing the resilience of communities. By strategically developing a multi-stakeholder and multi-sector approach, community projects are likely to encapsulate a range of experience and skills that will benefit the community. Furthermore, by incorporating local knowledge, communities are far more likely to be engaged and actively participate in the project. From selected case studies, commonly occurring best practice methods to integrate DRR and CCA are identified and discussed and recommendations on how to overcome the common challenges also presented.

  7. Results of physiological adaptation assessmtn and health risks for labor migrants from Tajikistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Khodzhiev

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The paper focuses on the results of physiological research performed on 9 occupational groups of migrants who came to Moscow region of Russia from southern Central Asia republics. We studied adaptation processes characteristics in labor migrants as per cardiovascular system parameters and neuromuscular apparatus parameters. We revealed peculiarities in heart rate variability (changes in stress index S1, values of AMo, VLF spectrum power, PARS parameter in migrants de-pending on neuro-emotional nature of working activity and muscular loads intensity. We detected apparent decrease in dynamometric parameters of endurance and maximum working capacity of arms muscles and backbones and legs muscles by the end of their working day. We created a procedure to determine an adaptation process stage under combined effects ex-erted by labor physical hardness and neuro-emotional intensity; unsatisfactory adaptation increases health disorders risks. We showed that long-term and intense impacts by factors determining labor process hardness caused occupational diseases of musculoskeletal system and peripheral nervous system. We revealed that as labor intensity grew working stress in a body also increased and it could transform into overstrain and occupational diseases evolvement (primary hypertension, ischemic heart diseases, and neurotic disorders. A distinctive feature is that men suffer from cardiovascular system pathologies more frequently while women tend to suffer from nervous system pathologies. In this relation, we should make separate predictions of occupational pathology probability depending on labor intensity level for males and females. Adaptation processes optimization should include organization of rational work and rest regime, healthy lifestyle for-mation, improvements in medical aid for migrants.

  8. Flight Test Approach to Adaptive Control Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pavlock, Kate Maureen; Less, James L.; Larson, David Nils

    2011-01-01

    The National Aeronautics and Space Administration s Dryden Flight Research Center completed flight testing of adaptive controls research on a full-scale F-18 testbed. The validation of adaptive controls has the potential to enhance safety in the presence of adverse conditions such as structural damage or control surface failures. This paper describes the research interface architecture, risk mitigations, flight test approach and lessons learned of adaptive controls research.

  9. Promoting adaptive flood risk management: the role and potential of flood recovery mechanisms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Priest Sally J

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available There is a high potential for recovery mechanisms to be used to incentivise the uptake of flood mitigation and loss reduction measures, undertake adaptation and promote community resilience. Indeed, creating a resilient response to flooding requires flood risk management approaches to be aligned and it needs to be ensured that recovery mechanisms to not provide disincentives for individuals and business to take proactive action to reduce risk. However, the degree to which it is desirable and effective for insurers and governments providing compensation to promote resilience and risk reduction depends upon how the cover or compensation is organised and the premiums which are charged. A review of international flood recovery mechanisms has been undertaken to identify firstly the types of schemes that exist and their characteristics. Analysis of existing instruments highlights that there are various potential approaches to encourage or require the uptake of flood mitigation and also discourage the construction of new development in high flood risk. However despite the presence of these instruments, those organising recovery mechanisms could be doing much more to incentivise increased resilience.

  10. Common variants in mismatch repair genes associated with increased risk of sperm DNA damage and male infertility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ji Guixiang

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The mismatch repair (MMR pathway plays an important role in the maintenance of the genome integrity, meiotic recombination and gametogenesis. This study investigated whether genetic variations in MMR genes are associated with an increased risk of sperm DNA damage and male infertility. Methods We selected and genotyped 21 tagging single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs in five MMR genes (MLH1, MLH3, PMS2, MSH4 and MSH5 using the SNPstream 12-plex platform in a case-control study of 1,292 idiopathic infertility patients and 480 fertile controls in a Chinese population. Sperm DNA damage levels were detected with the Tdt-mediated dUTP nick end labelling (TUNEL assay in 450 cases. Fluorescence resonance energy transfer (FRET and co-immunoprecipitation techniques were employed to determine the effects of functional variants. Results One intronic SNP in MLH1 (rs4647269 and two non-synonymous SNPs in PMS2 (rs1059060, Ser775Asn and MSH5 (rs2075789, Pro29Ser seem to be risk factors for the development of azoospermia or oligozoospermia. Meanwhile, we also identified a possible contribution of PMS2 rs1059060 to the risk of male infertility with normal sperm count. Among patients with normal sperm count, MLH1 rs4647269 and PMS2 rs1059060 were associated with increased sperm DNA damage. Functional analysis revealed that the PMS2 rs1059060 can affect the interactions between MLH1 and PMS2. Conclusions Our results provide evidence supporting the involvement of genetic polymorphisms in MMR genes in the aetiology of male infertility.

  11. THE RISK OF INJURY AND VEHICLE DAMAGE SEVERITY IN VEHICLE MISMATCHED SIDE IMPACT CRASHES IN BRITISH COLUMBIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ediriweera DESAPRIYA

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available As occupant protection offered by new passenger vehicles has improved, there has been growing concern about the harm that some vehicle designs may inflict on occupants of other vehicles with which they collide. Preceding analyses of crash statistics have clearly demonstrated the incompatibility between passenger sedan cars (PS and pick-up trucks (PU involved in side impact crashes in British Columbia. A comparison of light truck and passenger car crashes in previous literature reveals that light truck vehicles inflict greater harm than passenger cars for a number of reasons including their greater weight, stiffer structure, and higher ride height. These features place occupants of passenger cars at a disadvantage should they be involved in a collision with a light truck vehicle. The injury risk for passenger sedan car occupants is greater than the risk for pick-up truck occupants in two-vehicle crashes (Odds Ratio (OR 1.87; 95% Confidence Interval (CI 1.38-2.52. In addition, the risk of vehicle damage severity was increased for passenger cars compared with pick-up trucks (write off vehicle-OR 5.35; 95% CI 3.75-7.63, severely damaged vehicles-OR 5.87; 95% CI 4.79–7.19, moderately damaged vehicles-OR 2.86; 95% CI 2.44–3.36. There is strong justification for injury prevention experts and policy makers to step up motor vehicle crash injury prevention advocacy by implementing evidence-based policies to reduce rates of injury as a result of passenger sedan cars and pick-up trucks involved in side impact crashes in the province of British Columbia.

  12. Risk assessment of maize damage by wireworms (Coleoptera: Elateridae) as the first step in implementing IPM and in reducing the environmental impact of soil insecticides.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Furlan, L; Contiero, B; Chiarini, F; Colauzzi, M; Sartori, E; Benvegnù, I; Fracasso, F; Giandon, P

    2017-01-01

    A survey of maize fields was conducted in northeast Italy from 1986 to 2014, resulting in a dataset of 1296 records including information on wireworm damage to maize, plant-attacking species, agronomic characteristics, landscape and climate. Three wireworm species, Agriotes brevis Candeze, A. sordidus Illiger and A. ustulatus Schäller, were identified as the dominant pest species in maize fields. Over the 29-year period surveyed, no yield reduction was observed when wireworm plant damage was below 15 % of the stand. A preliminary univariate analysis of risk assessment was applied to identify the main factors influencing the occurrence of damage. A multifactorial model was then applied by using the significant factors identified. This model allowed the research to highlight the strongest factors and to analyse how the main factors together influenced damage risk. The strongest factors were: A. brevis as prevalent damaging species, soil organic matter content >5 %, rotation including meadows and/or double crops, A. sordidus as prevalent damaging species, and surrounding landscape mainly meadows, uncultivated grass and double crops. The multifactorial model also showed how the simultaneous occurrence of two or more of the aforementioned risk factors can conspicuously increase the risk of wireworm damage to maize crops, while the probability of damage to a field with no-risk factors is always low (<1 %). These results make it possible to draw risk maps to identify low-risk and high-risk areas, a first step in implementing bespoke IPM procedures in an attempt to reduce the impact of soil insecticides significantly.

  13. Conflict monitoring and adaptation in individuals at familial risk for developing bipolar disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patino, Luis R; Adler, Caleb M; Mills, Neil P; Strakowski, Stephen M; Fleck, David E; Welge, Jeffrey A; DelBello, Melissa P

    2013-05-01

    To examine conflict monitoring and conflict-driven adaptation in individuals at familial risk for developing bipolar disorder. We recruited 24 adolescents who had a parent with bipolar disorder and 23 adolescents with healthy parents. Participants completed an arrow version of the Eriksen Flanker Task that included trials with three levels of conflict: neutral, congruent, and incongruent flanks. Differences in performance were explored based upon the level of conflict in the current and previous trials. Individuals at risk for developing bipolar disorder performed more slowly than youth with healthy parents in all trials. Analyses evaluating sequential effects revealed that at-risk subjects responded more slowly than youth of healthy parents for all trial types when preceded by an incongruent trial, for incongruent trials preceded by congruent trials, and for neutral and congruent trials when preceded by neutral trials. In contrast to the comparison group, at-risk adolescents failed to display a response time advantage for incongruent trials preceded by an incongruent trial. When removing subjects with attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), differences between groups in response time fell below significant level, but a difference in sequence modulation remained significant. Subjects at risk for bipolar disorder also displayed greater intra-subject response time variability for incongruent and congruent trials compared with the comparison adolescents. No differences in response accuracy were observed between groups. Adolescents at risk for developing bipolar disorder displayed specific deficits in cognitive flexibility, which might be useful as a potential marker related to the development of bipolar disorder. © 2013 John Wiley and Sons A/S. Published by Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  14. Cancer risk in humans predicted by increased levels of chromosomal aberrations in lymphocytes: Nordic study group on the health risk of chromosome damage

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hagmar, L; Brøgger, A; Hansteen, I L

    1994-01-01

    Cytogenetic assays in peripheral blood lymphocytes (PBL) have been used extensively to survey the exposure of humans to genotoxic agents. The conceptual basis for this has been the hypothesis that the extent of genetic damage in PBL reflects critical events for carcinogenic processes in target...... tissues. Until now, no follow-up studies have been performed to assess the predictive value of these methods for subsequent cancer risk. In an ongoing Nordic cohort study of cancer incidence, 3182 subjects were examined between 1970 and 1988 for chromosomal aberrations (CA), sister chromatid exchange.......0009) in CA strata with regard to subsequent cancer risk. The point estimates of the standardized incidence ratio in the three CA strata were 0.9, 0.7, and 2.1, respectively. Thus, an increased level of chromosome breakage appears to be a relevant biomarker of future cancer risk....

  15. Dental Students' Perceptions of Risk Factors for Musculoskeletal Disorders: Adapting the Job Factors Questionnaire for Dentistry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Presoto, Cristina D; Wajngarten, Danielle; Domingos, Patrícia A S; Campos, Juliana A D B; Garcia, Patrícia P N S

    2018-01-01

    The aims of this study were to adapt the Job Factors Questionnaire to the field of dentistry, evaluate its psychometric properties, evaluate dental students' perceptions of work/study risk factors for musculoskeletal disorders, and determine the influence of gender and academic level on those perceptions. All 580 students enrolled in two Brazilian dental schools in 2015 were invited to participate in the study. A three-factor structure (Repetitiveness, Work Posture, and External Factors) was tested through confirmatory factor analysis. Convergent validity was estimated using the average variance extracted (AVE), discriminant validity was based on the correlational analysis of the factors, and reliability was assessed. A causal model was created using structural equation modeling to evaluate the influence of gender and academic level on students' perceptions. A total of 480 students completed the questionnaire for an 83% response rate. The responding students' average age was 21.6 years (SD=2.98), and 74.8% were women. Higher scores were observed on the Work Posture factor items. The refined model presented proper fit to the studied sample. Convergent validity was compromised only for External Factors (AVE=0.47), and discriminant validity was compromised for Work Posture and External Factors (r 2 =0.69). Reliability was adequate. Academic level did not have a significant impact on the factors, but the women students exhibited greater perception. Overall, the adaptation resulted in a useful instrument for assessing perceptions of risk factors for musculoskeletal disorders. Gender was found to significantly influence all three factors, with women showing greater perception of the risk factors.

  16. NEWBORNS OF HIGH RISK GROUPS AND ELECTROPHYSIOLOGICAL CARDIAC ACTIVITY DURING THE PERIOD OF EARLY ADAPTATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. S. Tumaeva

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Aim: to study characteristics of electrophysiological cardiac activity in children of risk groups and to assess possibilities of Holter-electrocardiography (H-ECG in revealing of cardiac dysfunction during the period of early adaptation. Patients and methods: 250 newborns were examined. The main group consisted of 200 children with cerebral ischemia (CI. This group was divided into 2 subgroups: 100 full-term and 100 premature (at various gestation age infants. Control group contained 50 children born at 38–40th weeks of gestation with physiological course of pregnancy and delivery, APGAR score of 8–9 points. Complex examination included H-ECG according the standard technic with evaluation of the hearth rate (HR during sleep and wakefulness; HRmin, HRmax; arrhythmias, conductivity disorders, duration of the intervals; rhythm variability. Results: according to the ECG children with CI, especially premature ones, and children delivered via Cesarean section more often had ST-T disturbances, arrhythmias (sinus tachycardia, less often — sinus bradycardia and conductivity disorders, Q-Tc prolongation. H-EGC revealed decrease of sleep HR, HRmin and HRmax in children with CI especially in delivered via Cesarean section. The most common arrhythmia was supraventricular extrasystole.  Pauses in rhythms and variability were the highest in premature children delivered via Cesarean section. Conclusions: hypoxia/ischemia is a trigger for development of cardiovascular dysfuncion in newborns. Premature and children delivered via Cesarean section form a group of high risk. H-ECG widens possibilities of revealing of symptoms of cardiac dysfunction (disturbances at the basal level of functioning, of adaptation resources of the sinus node, electric instability of the myocardium and heart rate variability in children of risk group for development of cardiovascular disorders. 

  17. Using an extended 2D hydrodynamic model for evaluating damage risk caused by extreme rain events: Flash-Flood-Risk-Map (FFRM) Upper Austria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Humer, Günter; Reithofer, Andreas

    2016-04-01

    Using an extended 2D hydrodynamic model for evaluating damage risk caused by extreme rain events: Flash-Flood-Risk-Map (FFRM) Upper Austria Considering the increase in flash flood events causing massive damage during the last years in urban but also rural areas [1-4], the requirement for hydrodynamic calculation of flash flood prone areas and possible countermeasures has arisen to many municipalities and local governments. Besides the German based URBAS project [1], also the EU-funded FP7 research project "SWITCH-ON" [5] addresses the damage risk caused by flash floods in the sub-project "FFRM" (Flash Flood Risk Map Upper Austria) by calculating damage risk for buildings and vulnerable infrastructure like schools and hospitals caused by flash-flood driven inundation. While danger zones in riverine flooding are established as an integral part of spatial planning, flash floods caused by overland runoff from extreme rain events have been for long an underrated safety hazard not only for buildings and infrastructure, but man and animals as well. Based on the widespread 2D-model "hydro_as-2D", an extension was developed, which calculates the runoff formation from a spatially and temporally variable precipitation and determines two dimensionally the land surface area runoff and its concentration. The conception of the model is to preprocess the precipitation data and calculate the effective runoff-volume for a short time step of e.g. five minutes. This volume is applied to the nodes of the 2D-model and the calculation of the hydrodynamic model is started. At the end of each time step, the model run is stopped, the preprocessing step is repeated and the hydraulic model calculation is continued. In view of the later use for the whole of Upper Austria (12.000 km²) a model grid of 25x25 m² was established using digital elevation data. Model parameters could be estimated for the small catchment of river Ach, which was hit by an intense rain event with up to 109 mm per hour

  18. Work-related stress risk assessment in Italy: a methodological proposal adapted to regulatory guidelines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Persechino, Benedetta; Valenti, Antonio; Ronchetti, Matteo; Rondinone, Bruna Maria; Di Tecco, Cristina; Vitali, Sara; Iavicoli, Sergio

    2013-06-01

    Work-related stress is one of the major causes of occupational ill health. In line with the regulatory framework on occupational health and safety (OSH), adequate models for assessing and managing risk need to be identified so as to minimize the impact of this stress not only on workers' health, but also on productivity. After close analysis of the Italian and European reference regulatory framework and work-related stress assessment and management models used in some European countries, we adopted the UK Health and Safety Executive's (HSE) Management Standards (MS) approach, adapting it to the Italian context in order to provide a suitable methodological proposal for Italy. We have developed a work-related stress risk assessment strategy, meeting regulatory requirements, now available on a specific web platform that includes software, tutorials, and other tools to assist companies in their assessments. This methodological proposal is new on the Italian work-related stress risk assessment scene. Besides providing an evaluation approach using scientifically validated instruments, it ensures the active participation of occupational health professionals in each company. The assessment tools provided enable companies not only to comply with the law, but also to contribute to a database for monitoring and assessment and give access to a reserved area for data analysis and comparisons.

  19. Liver Damage Risk Assessment Study in Workers Occupationally Exposed to E-waste in Benin City, South-South Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Osaretin God Igaro Igaro

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available    Large volumes of mostly irreparable electronic waste (e-waste are shipped to Africa on a monthly basis, of which Nigeria receives the largest share. E-waste management practices in Nigeria have remained completely primitive until date; and e-waste workers have little or no occupational safety knowledge and devices. The thousands of chemicals in e-waste have been reported to be toxic to human health in any degree of exposure. The present study has assessed the risk of liver damage in workers occupationally exposed to e-waste in Benin City, South-south Nigeria in 2014. Serum activities of liver enzymes [alanine aminotransferase (ALT, aspartate aminotransferase (AST, gamma glutamyltransferase (GGT and alkaline phosphatase (ALP]; and levels albumin (ALB, total bilirubin (T/Bil and conjugated bilirubin (C/Bil were determined using standard colorimetric methods. Serum Alpha fetoprotein (AFP was determined using ELISA in Nigerian e-waste workers (n=63 and in age-matched unexposed participants (n=41 in Benin City. The results showed significantly raised activities of enzymatic biomarkers of liver damage (ALT, AST, ALP and GGT in the e-waste group compared with the unexposed participants. There was no significant difference in the levels of ALB, T/Bil and C/Bil between exposed and unexposed participants. AFP levels in e-waste workers (3.56 ± 0.34 ng/mL were significantly different compared with the unexposed group (2.14 ± 0.80 ng/mL (P< 0.045. The significantly elevated cancer risk biomarker (AFP and the enzymatic biomarkers of liver damage observed in the Nigerian e-waste workers studied may be associated with occupational exposure to known carcinogens and hepatotoxic metals in e-waste. 

  20. Climate Change Perceptions of NY State Farmers: The Role of Risk Perceptions and Adaptive Capacity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takahashi, Bruno; Burnham, Morey; Terracina-Hartman, Carol; Sopchak, Amanda R.; Selfa, Theresa

    2016-12-01

    Climate change is expected to severely impact agricultural practices in many important food-producing regions, including the Northeast United States. Changing climate conditions, such as increases in the amount of rainfall, will require farmers to adapt. Yet, little is known with regard to farmers' perceptions and understandings about climate change, especially in the industrialized country context. This paper aims at overcoming this research limitation, as well as determining the existing contextual, cognitive, and psychological barriers that can prevent adoption of sustainable practices of farmers in New York State. The study is framed within the adaptive capacity and risk perception literature, and is based on a qualitative analysis of in-depth interviews with farmers in 21 farms in two counties in Central New York. The results reveal diverging views about the long-term consequences of climate change. Results also reveal that past experience remains as the most important source of information that influences beliefs and perceptions about climate change, confirming previous research.

  1. How many holes is too many? A prototype tool for estimating mosquito entry risk into damaged bed nets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sutcliffe, James; Ji, Xin; Yin, Shaoman

    2017-08-01

    Insecticide-treated bed nets (ITNs) have played an integral role in malaria reduction but how insecticide depletion and accumulating physical damage affect ITN performance is poorly understood. More accurate methods are needed to assess damage to bed nets so that they can be designed, deployed and replaced optimally. Video recordings of female Anopheles gambiae in near approach (1-½ cm) to occupied untreated rectangular bed nets in a laboratory study were used to quantify the amount of mosquito activity (appearances over time) around different parts of the net, the per-appearance probability of a mosquito coming close to holes of different sizes (hole encounter) and the per-encounter probability of mosquitoes passing through holes of different sizes (hole passage). Appearance frequency on different parts of the net reflected previously reported patterns: the area of the net under greatest mosquito pressure was the roof, followed by the bottom 30 cm of the sides, followed by the 30 cm area immediately above this, followed by the upper two-thirds of the sides. The ratio of activity in these areas was (respectively) 250:33:5:1. Per-appearance probability of hole encounter on all parts of the net was strongly predicted by a factor combining hole perimeter and area. Per-encounter probability of hole passage, in turn, was strongly predicted by hole width. For a given width, there was a 20% greater risk of passage through holes on the roof than holes on the sides. Appearance, encounter and passage predictors correspond to various mosquito behaviours that have previously been described and are combined into a prototype mosquito entry risk tool that predicts mosquito entry rates for nets with various amounts of damage. Scenarios that use the entry risk tool to test the recommendations of the WHOPES proportionate hole index (pHI) suggest that the pHI hole size categories and failure to account for hole location likely sometimes lead to incorrect conclusions about net

  2. Blood pressure variability predicts cardiovascular events independently of traditional cardiovascular risk factors and target organ damage

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vishram, Julie K K; Dahlöf, Björn; Devereux, Richard B

    2015-01-01

    ). METHODS: In 8505 patients randomized to losartan vs. atenolol-based treatment in the LIFE study, we tested whether BP variability assessed as SD and range for BP6-24months measured at 6, 12, 18 and 24 months of treatment was associated with target organ damage (TOD) defined by LVH on ECG and urine albumin......BACKGROUND: Assessment of antihypertensive treatment is normally based on the mean value of a number of blood pressure (BP) measurements. However, it is uncertain whether high in-treatment visit-to-visit BP variability may be harmful in hypertensive patients with left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH.......05), but MI was not. CONCLUSION: In LIFE patients, higher in-treatment BP6-24months variability was independently of mean BP6-24months associated with later CEP and stroke, but not with MI or TOD after 24 months....

  3. Indirect assessment of economic damages from the Prestige oil spill: consequences for liability and risk prevention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garza, María Dolores; Prada, Albino; Varela, Manuel; Rodríguez, María Xosé Vázquez

    2009-03-01

    The social losses arising from the Prestige oil spill exceed the compensation granted under the IOPC (International Oil Pollution Compensation) system, with losses estimated at 15 times more than the applicable limit of compensations. This is far above the level of costs for which those responsible for hydrocarbons spills are liable. The highest market losses correspond to sectors of extraction, elaboration and commercialisation of seafood. However, damages to non-commercial natural resources could constitute an outstanding group of losses for which further primary data are needed: these losses would only be compensable under the current system by means of a refund for cleaning and restoration costs. Results show that, in Europe, the responsibility for oil spills in maritime transport is limited and unclear. The consequence of this is net social losses from recurrent oil spills and internationally accepted incentives for risky strategies in the marine transport of hydrocarbons.

  4. Exploring adaptation pathways in terms of flood risk management at a city scale – a case study for Shanghai city

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ke Qian

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Cities are vulnerable to flooding and historical events, for instance Hurricane Sandy in 2012, have showed that losses in the cities are costly. In the context of climate change and socio-economic development, future flood risk will inevitably rise; adaptive measures, for instance upgrading of sea dikes and floodwalls, improving drainage systems and implementing green infrastructures, are proposed under the changing environment in the cities. A question of when to implement what measures in the cities over time is then brought up. The approach of dynamic adaptive policy pathways is applied to formulate adaptation pathways for a case study of Shanghai to explore the optimal investment strategy in context of deep uncertainties. Adaptation concept is not only aiming to achieve optimal strategy but also to determine when to implement the measures. The adaptation pathways for three types of floods (coastal flood, river flood and pluvial flood in Shanghai were formulated through a preliminary qualitative analysis. This could provide an insight to the long-term feasibility of adaptive flood risk strategies. This research could provide a rational indication for policy/decision makers on future adaptation strategy at the city scale.

  5. Calcific aortic valve damage as a risk factor for cardiovascular events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wasilewski, Jarosław; Mirota, Kryspin; Wilczek, Krzysztof; Głowacki, Jan; Poloński, Lech

    2012-01-01

    Aortic valve calcification (AVC) is a common disease of the elderly. It is a progressive disease ranging from mild valve thickening to severe calcification with aortic valve stenosis. Risk factors for AVC are similar to those for atherosclerosis: age, gender, hypercholesterolemia, diabetes, hypertension, smoking and renal failure. AVC shares many similarities to atherosclerosis, including inflammatory cells and calcium deposits, and correlates with coronary plaque burden. Presence of AVC is associated with increased risk of adverse cardiovascular events. The objective for this review is to discuss the clinical features, natural history and prognostic significance of aortic valve calcifications, including mechanical and hemodynamic factors of flow distribution

  6. Nuclear risks and insurance against damage to persons from atomic and other power sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Avdonin, Eh.K.; Gavrilov, S.D.; Kovalevich, O.M.

    2001-01-01

    A factor of potential risk which influence on choice of strategic direct of the power engineering development was considered. Now this factor has vital importance in Russia, Belarus and other countries of East Europe because of accumulated depreciation of power engineering

  7. Parent Perceptions of Children's Leisure and the Risk of Damaging Noise Exposure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carter, Lyndal; Black, Deborah; Bundy, Anita; Williams, Warwick

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to survey the attitudes of parents of adolescent children (with, and without, hearing impairment), with the following objectives: (1) compare perceptions of the parent groups regarding the risk of leisure-noise-related hearing injury; and (2) investigate how comfortable parents felt endorsing their child's…

  8. FACTORS THAT MAY DETERMINE THE RECOVERY RATE OF FINANCIAL RISK DAMAGES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicoleta Diana Rosioru

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available The information about the performance of a company, especially about its profitability, are useful to the consideration of potential changes of the economic resources, which the company might further control and the forecast of the ability to generate treasury flows by the existent resources. Also, based on the performance, judgments are expressed, aiming the efficiency whereof the company may use new resources. The performance of company may be influenced by its financial risk. The financial risk is defined as “variability of result indicators, under the incidence of financial structure of the company” . It is established by “the financing policy of the company, by equity or loans”. The financial risk results by the structure of the company shareholding or by the use method of financial instruments. The financial risks result by different sources, including changes of the interest rate, currency trades, expansions of lending operations, issuance of shares, as well as the use of derived financial instruments (IFD.

  9. Antioxidant vitamins and cancer risk: is oxidative damage to DNA a relevant biomarker?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Loft, Steffen; Møller, Peter; Cooke, Marcus S

    2008-01-01

    -dihydroguanine (8-oxodG) are increasingly being regarded as reliable biomarkers of oxidative stress and they may have a predictive value of cancer risk, although this needs to be established independently in several cohort studies. A survey of intervention studies of the ingestion of antioxidant-containing foods...

  10. 9: ADAPTATION OF PREGNANCY RISK ASSESSMENT MONITORING SYSTEM (PRAMS) AND PROVIDE A MODEL ON IT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kharaghani, Roghieh; Shariati, Mohammad; Keramat, Afsaneh; Yunesian, Masud; Moghisi, Alireza

    2017-01-01

    (legal feasibility). There was no statistically significant differences in mother's participation rate between phone (90.9%) and home visit (92.8%) groups and about 90.8% of different sections of the questionnaire were completed (operational feasibility). All data collection processes took 35 days (schedule feasibility). Based on the study results, the appropriate model of surveillance system was suggested with the goals of reducing infant morbidity and mortality and promoting maternal health by influencing maternal and child health programs, and maternal behaviors during pregnancy and early infancy. Conclusion The adapted PRAMS could be considered feasible in Iran and may offer a potential solution to some data deficits in maternal and child health indicators. Moreover, by monitoring pregnancy risks and outcomes, we can assess, analyses, and modify the current prenatal care program through PRAMS widespread and periodic implementation.

  11. Adaptation to the Spanish population of the Substance Use Risk Profile Scale (SURPS) and psychometric properties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernández-Calderón, Fermín; Díaz-Batanero, Carmen; Rojas-Tejada, Antonio J; Castellanos-Ryan, Natalie; Lozano-Rojas, Óscar M

    2017-07-14

    The identification of different personality risk profiles for substance misuse is useful in preventing substance-related problems. This study aims to test the psychometric properties of a new version of the Substance Use Risk Profile Scale (SURPS) for Spanish college students. Cross-sectional study with 455 undergraduate students from four Spanish universities. A new version of the SURPS, adapted to the Spanish population, was administered with the Beck Hopelessness Scale, the UPPS-P Impulsive Behavior Scale, the State-Trait Anxiety Inventory (STAI) and the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT). Internal consistency reliability ranged between 0.652 and 0.806 for the four SURPS subscales, while reliability estimated by split-half coefficients varied from 0.686 to 0.829. The estimated test-retest reliability ranged between 0.733 and 0.868. The expected four-factor structure of the original scale was replicated. As evidence of convergent validity, we found that the SURPS subscales were significantly associated with other conceptually-relevant personality scales and significantly associated with alcohol use measures in theoretically-expected ways. This SURPS version may be a useful instrument for measuring personality traits related to vulnerability to substance use and misuse when targeting personality with preventive interventions.

  12. Flood risk mitigation in Europe: how far away are we from the aspired forms of adaptive governance?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marie Fournier

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Flood mitigation is a strategy that is growing in importance across Europe. This growth corresponds with an increasing emphasis on the need to learn to live with floods and make space for water. Flood mitigation measures aim at reducing the likelihood and magnitude of flooding and complement flood defenses. They are being put in place through the implementation of actions that accommodate (rather than resist water, such as natural flood management or adapted housing. The strategy has gained momentum over the past 20 years in an effort to improve the sustainability of flood risk management (FRM and facilitate the diversification of FRM in the pursuit of societal resilience to flooding. Simultaneously, it is increasingly argued that adaptive forms of governance are best placed to address the uncertainty and complexity associated with social-ecological systems responding to environmental challenges, such as flooding. However, there have been few attempts to examine the extent to which current flood risk governance, and flood mitigation specifically, reflect these aspired forms of adaptive governance. Drawing from EU research into flood risk governance, conducted within the STAR-FLOOD project, we examine the governance of flood mitigation in six European countries: Belgium, England, France, the Netherlands, Poland, and Sweden. Using in-depth policy and legal analysis, as well as interviews with key actors, the governance and implementation of flood mitigation in these countries is evaluated from the normative viewpoint of whether, and to what extent, it can be characterized as adaptive governance. We identify five criteria of adaptive governance based on a comprehensive literature review and apply these to each country to determine the "distance" between current governance arrangements and adaptive governance. In conclusion, the flood mitigation strategy provides various opportunities for actors to further pursue forms of adaptive governance. The

  13. Is damage to the common bile duct during laparoscopic cholecystectomy an inherent risk of the operation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, Josef E

    2009-06-01

    Laparoscopic cholocystectomy has been practiced for close to 20 years. The rate of common duct injury remains somewhere between 0.4 to 0.7 percent and is approximately the same around the world. Recent papers have stressed ways in which laparoscopic common duct injury can be avoided, but none of the methods mentioned is foolproof. In addition, this complication can occur to even the most experienced laparoscopic surgeon. The author believes that injury to the common duct during laparoscopic cholocystectomy is not a result of the practice below the standard, but an inherent risk of the operation. This injury needs to be emphasized by the surgical community as an inherent risk of the operation, and patients should be fully informed of this potential complication.

  14. FACTORS THAT MAY DETERMINE THE RECOVERY RATE OF FINANCIAL RISK DAMAGES

    OpenAIRE

    Nicoleta Diana Rosioru

    2015-01-01

    The information about the performance of a company, especially about its profitability, are useful to the consideration of potential changes of the economic resources, which the company might further control and the forecast of the ability to generate treasury flows by the existent resources. Also, based on the performance, judgments are expressed, aiming the efficiency whereof the company may use new resources. The performance of company may be influenced by its financial risk. The financial...

  15. Barriers to reducing climate enhanced disaster risks in Least Developed Country-Small Islands through anticipatory adaptation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natasha Kuruppu

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Small Island Developing States (SIDS classified as Least Developed Countries (LDCs are particularly vulnerable to the projected impacts of climate change. Given their particular vulnerabilities, climate adaptation investments are being made through both national and international efforts to build the capacity of various sectors and communities to reduce climate risks and associated disasters. Despite these efforts, reducing climate risks is not free of various challenges and barriers. This paper aims to synthesise a set of critical socio-economic barriers present at various spatial scales that are specific to Least Developed Country SIDS. It also aims to identify the processes that give rise to these barriers. Drawing on theories from natural hazards, a systematic literature review method was adopted to identify and organise the set of barriers by focussing on both academic papers and grey literature. The data revealed a notable lack of studies on adaptation within African and Caribbean LDC-SIDS. In general, there was a paucity of academic as well as grey literature being produced by authors from LDC-SIDS to challenge existing discourses related to adaptation barriers. The most common barriers identified included those related to governance, technical, cognitive and cultural. Three key findings can be drawn from this study in relation to formal adaptation initiatives. Firstly, the lack of focus on the adaptive capacity needs of Local Government or Island Councils and communities was a key barrier to ensure success of adaptation interventions. Secondly, international adaptation funding modalities did little to address root causes of vulnerability or support system transformations. These funds were geared at supporting sectoral level adaptation initiatives for vulnerable natural resource sectors such as water, biodiversity and coastal zones. Thirdly, there is a need to recognise the significance of cultural knowledge and practices in shaping

  16. Barriers to reducing climate enhanced disaster risks in Least Developed Country-Small Islands through anticipatory adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuruppu, N.; Willie, R.

    2015-12-01

    Small Island Developing States (SIDS) classified as Least Developed Countries (LDCs) are particularly vulnerable to the projected impacts of climate change. Given their particular vulnerabilities, climate adaptation investments are being made through both national and international efforts to build the capacity of various sectors and communities to reduce climate risks and associated disasters. Despite these efforts, reducing climate risks is not free of various challenges and barriers. This paper aims to synthesise a set of critical socio-economic barriers present at various spatial scales that are specific to Least Developed Country SIDS. It also aims to identify the processes that give rise to these barriers. Drawing on theories from natural hazards, a systematic literature review method was adopted to identify and organise the set of barriers by focussing both on academic papers and grey literature. The data revealed a notable lack of studies on adaptation within African and Caribbean LDC-SIDS. In general, there was a paucity of academic as well as grey literature being produced by authors from LDC-SIDS to challenge existing discourses related to adaptation barriers. The most common barriers identified included those related to governance, technical, cognitive and cultural. Three key findings can be drawn from this study in relation to formal adaptation initiatives. Firstly, the lack of focus on the adaptive capacity needs of Local Government or Island Councils and communities was a key barrier to ensuring success of adaptation interventions. Secondly, international adaptation funding modalities did little to address root causes of vulnerability or support system transformations. These funds were geared at supporting sectoral level adaptation initiatives for vulnerable natural resource sectors such as water, biodiversity and coastal zones. Thirdly, there is a need to recognise the significance of cultural knowledge and practices in shaping adaptive choices of

  17. Alcohol's Collateral Damage: Childhood Exposure to Problem Drinkers and Subsequent Adult Mortality Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogers, Richard G; Lawrence, Elizabeth M; Montez, Jennifer Karas

    2016-12-07

    The importance of childhood circumstances, broadly defined, for shaping adult health and longevity is well-established. But the significance of one of the most prevalent childhood adversities-exposure to problem drinkers-has been understudied from a sociological perspective and remains poorly understood. We address this gap by drawing on cumulative inequality theory, using data from the 1988-2011 National Health Interview Survey-Linked Mortality Files, and estimating Cox proportional hazards models to examine the relationship between exposure to problem drinkers in childhood and adult mortality risk. Childhood exposure to problem drinkers is common (nearly 1 in 5 individuals were exposed) and elevates adult overall and cause-specific mortality risk. Compared to individuals who had not lived with a problem drinker during childhood, those who had done so suffered 17 percent higher risk of death (prisk. Favorable socioeconomic status in adulthood does not ameliorate the consequences of childhood exposure to problem drinkers. The primary intervening mechanisms are risky behaviors, including adult drinking and smoking. The findings-which reveal that the influence of problem drinking is far-reaching and long-term-should inform policies to improve childhood circumstances, reduce detrimental effects of problem drinking, and increase life expectancy.

  18. Adaptation of the migrant worker’s body to the occupational risk factors from the position of functional system of P.K. Anokhin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    М. Khodzhiev

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The adverse factors of labor process of migrants were studied as the factors of risk of formation of unsatisfactory adaptation and damage to health. The results of the study of adaptation of migrants to the labor process from the standpoint of the theory of functional systems were presented. The first subsystem of physical activities and neuro-emotional tension of labor determines the formation of certain stages of the adaptation process in terms of heart rate variability (the second sub-system. The result of migrant workers’ sympathetic chain of regulation’s activity level shows that the adaptive stress syndrome on the physiological indicators is expressed in a change of heart rate variability: different levels of stress index of SI associated with high physical (muscle, neuro-emotional stresses; marked increase in the power of spectrum of very low-frequency component (VLF, while the increase in heart rate. The features of the functional state of the body and the degree of adaptation in terms of activity of regulatory systems – PARS (optimal 1.19 ± 0.28; allowable stress 40.5 ± 0.62; overvoltage 6.21 ± 0.82 points were determined. On the basis of the production studies of migrant workers, the approaches to quantitative evaluation to the degree of adaptation of workers to the labor process associated with the combined effects of physical, neural and emotional labor intensity on the human body were science-based and developed. The degree of stress adaptation process corresponds to the stage of self-control (optimum stress activation (allowable stress, the mobilization of the 1st, 2nd, 3-th degree (degrees of over-stress of 1,2,3 degrees. Unfavorable stage of mobilization of 2–3 degrees of migrant workers was determined (an increase in the stress index S1, PARS indicator, the relative power of VLF range, a reduction in the SDNN. Events of medical and social support represent the third sub-system in the general system theory.

  19. Femoral nerve damage (image)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The femoral nerve is located in the leg and supplies the muscles that assist help straighten the leg. It supplies sensation ... leg. One risk of damage to the femoral nerve is pelvic fracture. Symptoms of femoral nerve damage ...

  20. Projecting the risk of damage to reef-lined coasts due to intensified tropical cyclones and sea level rise in Palau to 2100

    OpenAIRE

    Hongo, Chuki; Kurihara, Haruko; Golbuu, Yimnang

    2017-01-01

    Tropical cyclones (TCs), sea level rise (SLR), and storm surges cause major problems including beach erosion, saltwater intrusion into groundwater, and damage to infrastructure in coastal areas. The magnitude and extent of damage is predicted to increase as a consequence of future climate change and local factors. Upward reef growth has attracted attention for its role as a natural breakwater able to reduce the risks of natural disasters to coastal communities. However, projections of change ...

  1. Avoiding the Water-Climate-Poverty Trap: Adaptive Risk Management for Bangladesh's Coastal Embankments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, J. W.

    2015-12-01

    Our recent research on water security (Sadoff et al., 2015, Dadson et al., 2015) has revealed the dynamic relationship between water security and human well-being. A version of this dynamic is materialising in the coastal polder areas of Khulna, Bangladesh. Repeated coastal floods increase salinity, wipe out agricultural yields for several years and increase out-migration. As a tool to help inform and target future cycles of investment in improvements to the coastal embankments, in this paper we propose a dynamical model of biophysical processes and human well-being, which downscales our previous research to the Khulna region. State variables in the model include agricultural production, population, life expectancy and child mortality. Possible infrastructure interventions include embankment improvements, groundwater wells and drainage infrastructure. Hazard factors include flooding, salinization and drinking water pollution. Our system model can be used to inform adaptation decision making by testing the dynamical response of the system to a range of possible policy interventions, under uncertain future conditions. The analysis is intended to target investment and enable adaptive resource reallocation based on learning about the system response to interventions over the seven years of our research programme. The methodology and paper will demonstrate the complex interplay of factors that determine system vulnerability to climate change. The role of climate change uncertainties (in terms of mean sea level rise and storm surge frequency) will be evaluated alongside multiple other uncertain factors that determine system response. Adaptive management in a 'learning system' will be promoted as a mechanism for coping with climate uncertainties. References:Dadson, S., Hall, J.W., Garrick, D., Sadoff, C. and Grey, D. Water security, risk and economic growth: lessons from a dynamical systems model, Global Environmental Change, in review.Sadoff, C.W., Hall, J.W., Grey, D

  2. Quantification of flash flood economic risk using ultra-detailed stage-damage functions and 2-D hydraulic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garrote, J.; Alvarenga, F. M.; Díez-Herrero, A.

    2016-10-01

    The village of Pajares de Pedraza (Segovia, Spain) is located in the floodplain of the Cega River, a left bank tributary of the Douro River. Repeated flash flood events occur in this small village because of its upstream catchment area, mountainous character and impermeable lithology, which reduce concentration time to just a few hours. River overbank flow has frequently caused flooding and property damage to homes and rural properties, most notably in 1927, 1991, 1996, 2001, 2013 and 2014. Consequently, a detailed analysis was carried out to quantify the economic risk of flash floods in peri-urban and rural areas. Magnitudes and exceedance probabilities were obtained from a flood frequency analysis of maximum discharges. To determine the extent and characteristics of the flooded area, we performed 2D hydraulic modeling (Iber 2.0 software) based on LIDAR (1 m) topography and considering three different scenarios associated with the initial construction (1997) and subsequent extension (2013) of a linear defense structure (rockfill dike or levee) to protect the population. Specific stage-damage functions were expressly developed using in situ data collection for exposed elements, with special emphasis on urban-type categories. The average number of elements and their unit value were established. The relationship between water depth and the height at which electric outlets, furniture, household goods, etc. were located was analyzed; due to its effect on the form of the function. Other nonspecific magnitude-damage functions were used in order to compare both economic estimates. The results indicate that the use of non-specific magnitude-damage functions leads to a significant overestimation of economic losses, partly linked to the use of general economic cost data. Furthermore, a detailed classification and financial assessment of exposed assets is the most important step to ensure a correct estimate of financial losses. In both cases, this should include a

  3. A Multi-Risk Approach to Climate Change Adaptation, Based on an Analysis of South Korean Newspaper Articles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Youngeun Kang

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available The risks caused by climate change are worsening worldwide, and it is recognized that national and regional responses to climate change are essential. This study therefore explores climate change risks that have been recognized as fatal to people and the environment by analyzing multi-influence factors that appear in multiple risk indicators. The climate change risks in this study are based on 73 existing risk indicators; the frame data for multi-influence risk factors are based on 3098 newspaper articles published over 24 years on the impact of climate change in South Korea. The main outcomes for this study were finding climate change risk trend from newspaper articles regarding climate change impacts through text-mining, and figuring out the multi-risk indicators that are likely to occur at the same time with other risk indicators using network analysis. From the network analysis, we found that the major risk indicators have a high degree of interrelationship among risk indicators, including “increase in mortality rate from disaster”, “increase in flood areas due to coastal flooding”, and “destruction of repair facilities due to flooding (river bank, etc.”. The main risk indicators derived from this study can therefore be used as a reasonable standard when identifying the main risks posed by climate change and defining future adaptation planning priorities.

  4. Seismic risk assessment of building based on damaged database of 1995 Hyogoken Nanbu Earthquake; Hyogoken nanbu jishin no hisai database wo mochiita kenchikubutsu no jishin risk hyoka ni kansuru kenkyu

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Suwa, H.; Nobata, A.; Seki, M. [Obayashi Corp., Tokyo (Japan)

    2000-01-10

    The objective of this paper is to evaluate a vulnerability function and a repair cost in terms of each structural damage level based on the damaged database of the 1995 Hyogoken Nanbu Earthquake. The seismic risk of a building in Kobe is calculated through the analytical results. As a result, the following are verified : 1. The expectation of vulnerability function, in which peak ground acceleration is taken for seismic intensity, is about 550 cm/s{sup 2} for minor damage, about 700 cm/s{sup 2} for moderate damage, and about 950 cm/s{sup 2} for major damage respectively. However, the coefficient of variation (C. O. V. ) is about 0.5 for all damage levels. 2. The expectation of repair cost per square meter is about 29000 yen for minor damage, about 60000 yen for moderate damage, and about 64000 yen for major damage respectively. However, the variation is very large, for example, the C. O. V. for repair cost varies from 1.2 to 1.6. 3. The seismic risk of a building in Kobe, that is normalized by new construction cost, is about three percent on condition that the design lifetime is assumed to be 50 years. (author)

  5. [Attaching importance to study on acute health risk assessment and adaptation of air pollution and climate change].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, X M

    2017-03-10

    Air pollution and climate change have become key environmental and public health problems around the world, which poses serious threat to human health. How to assess and mitigate the health risks and increase the adaptation of the public have become an urgent topic of research in this area. The six papers in this issue will provide important and rich information on design, analysis method, indicator selection and setting about acute health risk assessment and adaptation study of air pollution and climate change in China, reflecting the advanced conceptions of multi-center and area-specific study and multi-pollutant causing acute effect study. However, the number and type of the cities included in these studies were still limited. In future, researchers should further expand detailed multi-center and multi-area study coverage, conduct area specific predicting and early warning study and strengthen adaptation study.

  6. Risk and Safety in Physical Education for Children with Disabilities: Adapted Physical Education Textbook Review and Primer for Teachers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hughes, Patricia Paulsen; Ramos, Nilo; Mwarumba, Njoki

    2017-01-01

    Purpose: Much of the information physical educators learn about children with disabilities occurs in an introduction to adapted physical education course. Because disabilities often have concomitant medical conditions, it is critical that PE teachers are knowledgeable about risks and safety measures for children with special needs. The purpose of…

  7. Identification and analysis of uncertainty in disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation in South and Southeast Asia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Keur, van der Peter; Bers, van Caroline; Henriksen, Hans Jørgen; Nibanupudi, Hari Krishna; Yadav, Shobha; Wijaya, Rina; Subiyono, Andreas; Mukerjee, Nandan; Hausmann, Hans Jakob; Hare, Matt; Scheltinga, van Catharien Terwisscha; Pearn, Gregory; Jaspers, Fons

    2016-01-01

    This paper addresses the mainstreaming of uncertainty in Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) and Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) using as a case South and Southeast Asia, a region highly vulnerable to a wide range of natural disasters. Improvements in the implementation of DRR and CCA at the community

  8. Socioeconomic vulnerability and adaptation to environmental risk: A case study of climate change and flooding in Bangladesh

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brouwer, R.; Akter, S.; Brander, L.M.; Haque, E.

    2007-01-01

    In this article we investigate the complex relationship between environmental risk, poverty, and vulnerability in a case study carried out in one of the poorest and most flood-prone countries in the world, focusing on household and community vulnerability and adaptive coping mechanisms. Based upon

  9. A resilience perspective to water risk management: case-study application of the adaptation tipping point method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gersonius, Berry; Ashley, Richard; Jeuken, Ad; Nasruddin, Fauzy; Pathirana, Assela; Zevenbergen, Chris

    2010-05-01

    In a context of high uncertainty about hydrological variables due to climate change and other factors, the development of updated risk management approaches is as important as—if not more important than—the provision of improved data and forecasts of the future. Traditional approaches to adaptation attempt to manage future water risks to cities with the use of the predict-then-adapt method. This method uses hydrological change projections as the starting point to identify adaptive strategies, which is followed by analysing the cause-effect chain based on some sort of Pressures-State-Impact-Response (PSIR) scheme. The predict-then-adapt method presumes that it is possible to define a singular (optimal) adaptive strategy according to a most likely or average projection of future change. A key shortcoming of the method is, however, that the planning of water management structures is typically decoupled from forecast uncertainties and is, as such, inherently inflexible. This means that there is an increased risk of under- or over-adaptation, resulting in either mal-functioning or unnecessary costs. Rather than taking a traditional approach, responsible water risk management requires an alternative approach to adaptation that recognises and cultivates resiliency for change. The concept of resiliency relates to the capability of complex socio-technical systems to make aspirational levels of functioning attainable despite the occurrence of possible changes. Focusing on resiliency does not attempt to reduce uncertainty associated with future change, but rather to develop better ways of managing it. This makes it a particularly relevant perspective for adaptation to long-term hydrological change. Although resiliency is becoming more refined as a theory, the application of the concept to water risk management is still in an initial phase. Different methods are used in practice to support the implementation of a resilience-focused approach. Typically these approaches

  10. The risk of PCI damage to 8x8 fuel rods during limit cycle instability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schrire, D.; Oguma, R.; Malen, K.

    1994-12-31

    A BWR reactor core may experience thermal-hydraulic instability under certain operating conditions. Generally, the instability results in neutron flux (i e generated neutronic power) and coolant flow and pressure oscillations, which reach a maximum `limit cycle` amplitude. The cladding response to power transients has been studied using noise analysis. These results have been compared to results from code calculations using the fuel code TOODEE 2. From these results the risk for fuel rod failure due to pellet-clad mechanical interaction and possible failure due to stress corrosion cracking (PCI) has been estimated. It turns out that for the oscillation frequencies of interest (0,3-0,5 Hz) the fuel response amplitude reduction makes PCI-failure improbable. 17 refs.

  11. Changing risk of spring frost damage in grapevines due to climate change? A case study in the Swiss Rhone Valley

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meier, Michael; Fuhrer, Jürg; Holzkämper, Annelie

    2018-01-01

    Late spring frost is a severe risk during early plant development. It may cause important economic damage to grapevine production. In a warming climate, late frost risk either could decline due to the reduction in frost days and an advancement of the last day of frost or increase due to a more pronounced shift forward of the start of the active growing period of the plants. These possibilities were analyzed in a case study for two locations in the lower Swiss Rhone Valley (Sion, Aigle) where viticulture is an important part of agriculture. Twelve phenology models were calibrated for the developmental stage BBCH09 (bud burst) using measured or reconstructed temperature data for two vineyards in Changins (1958 to 2012) and Leytron (1977 to 2014) together with observed phenological data. The day of year (DOY) for BBCH09 was then modelled for the years 1951 to 2050 using the best performing phenology model in combination with ten downscaled and bias-corrected climate scenarios. A 100-day period starting with BBCH09 was defined, during which daily mean and minimum temperatures were used to calculate three frost risk indices in each year. These indices were compared between the periods 1961-1990 (reference) and 2021-2050 (climate change scenario). Based on the average of the ensemble of climate model chains, BBCH09 advanced by 9 (range 7-11) (Aigle) and 7 (range 5-8) (Sion) days between the two time periods, similar to the shift in the last day of frost. The separate results of the different model chains suggest that, in the near future, late spring frost risk may increase or decrease, depending on location and climate change projections. While for the reference, the risk is larger at the warmer site (Sion) compared to that at the cooler site (Aigle), for the period 2021-2050, small shifts in both phenology and occurrence of frost (i.e., days with daily minimum temperature below 0 °C) lead to a small decrease in frost risk at the warmer but an increase at the cooler

  12. Changing risk of spring frost damage in grapevines due to climate change? A case study in the Swiss Rhone Valley.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meier, Michael; Fuhrer, Jürg; Holzkämper, Annelie

    2018-06-01

    Late spring frost is a severe risk during early plant development. It may cause important economic damage to grapevine production. In a warming climate, late frost risk either could decline due to the reduction in frost days and an advancement of the last day of frost or increase due to a more pronounced shift forward of the start of the active growing period of the plants. These possibilities were analyzed in a case study for two locations in the lower Swiss Rhone Valley (Sion, Aigle) where viticulture is an important part of agriculture. Twelve phenology models were calibrated for the developmental stage BBCH09 (bud burst) using measured or reconstructed temperature data for two vineyards in Changins (1958 to 2012) and Leytron (1977 to 2014) together with observed phenological data. The day of year (DOY) for BBCH09 was then modelled for the years 1951 to 2050 using the best performing phenology model in combination with ten downscaled and bias-corrected climate scenarios. A 100-day period starting with BBCH09 was defined, during which daily mean and minimum temperatures were used to calculate three frost risk indices in each year. These indices were compared between the periods 1961-1990 (reference) and 2021-2050 (climate change scenario). Based on the average of the ensemble of climate model chains, BBCH09 advanced by 9 (range 7-11) (Aigle) and 7 (range 5-8) (Sion) days between the two time periods, similar to the shift in the last day of frost. The separate results of the different model chains suggest that, in the near future, late spring frost risk may increase or decrease, depending on location and climate change projections. While for the reference, the risk is larger at the warmer site (Sion) compared to that at the cooler site (Aigle), for the period 2021-2050, small shifts in both phenology and occurrence of frost (i.e., days with daily minimum temperature below 0 °C) lead to a small decrease in frost risk at the warmer but an increase at the cooler

  13. Risk and Disaster Management: From Planning and Expertise to Smart, Intelligent, and Adaptive Systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benis, Arriel; Notea, Amos; Barkan, Refael

    2018-01-01

    "Disaster" means some surprising and misfortunate event. Its definition is broad and relates to complex environments. Medical Informatics approaches, methodologies and systems are used as a part of Disaster and Emergency Management systems. At the Holon Institute of Technology - HIT, Israel, in 2016 a National R&D Center: AFRAN was established to study the disaster's reduction aspects. The Center's designation is to investigate and produce new approaches, methodologies and to offer recommendations in the fields of disaster mitigation, preparedness, response and recovery and to disseminate disaster's knowledge. Adjoint to the Center a "Smart, Intelligent, and Adaptive Systems" laboratory (SIAS) was established with the goal to study the applications of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) and Artificial Intelligence (AI) to Risk and Disaster Management (RDM). In this paper, we are redefining the concept of Disaster, pointing-out how ICT, AI, in the Big Data era, are central players in the RDM game. In addition we show the merit of the Center and lab combination to the benefit of the performed research projects.

  14. Ambivalent Sexism Inventory: Adaptation to Basque Population and Sexism as a Risk Factor of Dating Violence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ibabe, Izaskun; Arnoso, Ainara; Elgorriaga, Edurne

    2016-11-15

    There is currently a consensus that sexism is one of the most important causes of intimate partner violence, but this has yet to be empirically demonstrated conclusively. The key objective of the study was to adapt Ambivalent Sexism Inventory (ASI) and to validate it to the Basque language. It also aims to analyze the prevalence of violence in dating relationships and verify if ambivalent sexism in young men and women is a valid predictor of perpetration and/or victimization in their dating relationships. Ambivalent Sexism Inventory and Dating Relationship Questionnaire were administered to 1378 undergraduate students (66% women and 45% Basque), aged between 17 and 30. The psychometric properties of the Basque and Spanish versions of the ASI are deemed to be acceptable. Sufficient guarantees are provided to be used as an instrument for measuring ambivalent sexism in adult Basque speakers. Ambivalent sexism among young men and women are both positively associated with the perpetration of violence and victimization in their dating relationships. However, ambivalent sexism or two sub-types of sexism (hostile and benevolent) are not relevant risk factors to be perpetrator or victim of violence in dating relationships, due to accounting for 3% or less of variance in dating violence.

  15. Experimental Shock Damage Risk Assessment for New Generation TAS-B Plasmic Propulsion Unit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garnier, J.; De Fruytier, C.

    2014-06-01

    This paper presents the methodology and the results of the shock test campaign conducted by TAS-B to qualify the PPU Mk2 unit in regards of increased shock levels.This unit supplies and controls two Plasma Thrusters used for satellite orbit keeping and attitude control. The PPU Mk2 unit mechanical design is based on a modular architecture. The different modules are mounted on a baseplate insuring thermal spreading and improved equipment flatness. The unit dimensions are 390 x 190 x 190 mm3 for a total mass of 11.5 kg.The PPU Mk2 contains several components sensitive to shock like specific inductors, transformers and relays. Due to an increasing of the shock specification in regards of the previous generation of PPU, it has been proposed to assess the good withstanding of these components and in order to mitigate the risks on the Qualification Model, a preliminary shock test has been performed on a Structural Model. This model is fully representative of the flight equipment in terms of mechanical interfaces and has been designed to have the same mechanical behaviour (same mass and main modes). Critical components have been embedded in this structural model in order to test their shock withstanding. Preliminary to this Structural Model, qualification at sensitive components levels has been performed through vibrations, shocks (half-sine) and thermal cycling. Evolution of the electrical main parameters has been followed to detect any degradation of the performance during this test campaigns.Then, the structural model has been instrumented to acquire the global behaviour of the equipment. Success criteria have been defined concerning mechanical behaviour before and after shocks, admissible electrical variations, visual inspections.After calibration phasis of the test bench, the shock test of the PPU Mk2 SM has been successfully conducted. The good test results allowed applying these shock levels confidently on the PPU Mk2 EQM model.

  16. Statistical model for assessing the risk of hail damage to any ground installation. Technical report, June 1978-March 1979

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cox, M; Armstrong, P R

    1979-09-01

    This report describes a statistical model which has been developed to determine the risk of damage by large hail to any ground installation (such as a solar flat plate collector). The model is based on data for the number of haildays per year, hailstone size distribution, and storm severity (expressed in number of hailstones per square meter per storm). Other than parameters derived from the raw meteorological data available, the parameters of the model are the number of years of surface exposure and the exposure area size. The end result is the probability of a hailstone of a given size striking a given surface area in a given number of years. The maximum probable hailstone size is used as a convenient index of hail risk. The data upon which to base a prediction model are sparse at this time, covering few geographic locations; much of the information available is deficient in sampling consistency and/or sample size. For this reason, this report fully documents the derivation and use of the model for future applications, when more and better data are collected. The FORTRAN source code to calculate the risk model digitally is included in APPENDIX D. This model improves on previous work in: (1) the use of more thorough statistical procedures and a more rigorous accounting of storm severity; (2) a more thorough investigation into the two probability density distributions commonly used (Poisson and negative binomial) to describe hailday frequencies, and (3) an attempt to define more rigorously the distribution of hailstone sizes. A sensitivity analysis was performed and conclusions are drawn from the results.

  17. Urbanization may reduce the risk of frost damage to spring flowers: A case study of two shrub species in South Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gim, Hyeon-Ju; Ho, Chang-Hoi; Kim, Jinwon; Lee, Eun Ju

    2018-01-01

    Regional warming, owing to urbanization, leads to earlier spring phenological events and may expose plants to hard freeze damage. This study examined the influence of urbanization on the risk of frost damage to spring flowers in South Korea from 1973 to 2015. For the analysis period, we categorized 25 cities into two groups: those showing rapid population growth (rPG) ≥ 200,000, including 13 cities, and those showing no or decreased population growth (nPG), including 12 cities. We then investigated the time from the last frost dates (LFDs) in spring to the first flowering dates (FFDs) for each group. The rPG group experienced significant spring warming of 0.47°C per decade, resulting in earlier LFDs and FFDs. For this group, the advancement of LFD was more rapid than that of FFD, and the days between these two dates increased from 0.42 to 0.47 days per decade, implying a reduced risk of frost damage. Spring warming and the advancement of FFDs and LFDs were relatively small for the nPG group, and the LFDs were rather delayed. Consequently, the days between LFDs and FFDs were reduced from -1.05 to -1.67 days per decade, indicating an increased risk of frost damage. The contrasting changes in the frost-damage risk between the two city groups can be attributed to distinct urban warming at night, which makes the LFDs substantially earlier in the rPG group. Therefore, this study suggests that the warming associated with urbanization may lessen the risk of spring frost damage to plants in rapidly growing urban areas.

  18. A Study of Disaster Adaptation Behavior and Risk Communication for watershed Area Resident - the Case of Kaoping River Watershed in Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Te Pai, Jen; Chen, Yu-Yun; Huang, Kuan-Hua

    2016-04-01

    Along with the global climate change, the rainfall patterns become more centralized and cause natural disasters more frequently and heavily. Residents in river watersheds area are facing high risk of natural disasters and severe impacts, especially in Taiwan. From the experience of Typhoon Morakot in 2009, we learned that poor risk communication between the governments and the households and communities would lead to tremendous loss of property and life. Effective risk communication can trigger action to impending and current events. On the other hand, it can also build up knowledge on hazards and risks and encourage adaptation behaviors. Through the participation and cooperation of different stakeholders in disaster management, can reduce vulnerability, enhance adaptive capacity, improve the interaction between different stakeholders and also avoid conflicts. However, in Taiwan there are few studies about how households and communities perceive flood disaster risks, the process of risk communications between governments and households, or the relationship between risk communication and adaptation behaviors. Therefore, this study takes household and community of Kaoping River Watershed as study area. It aims to identify important factors in the process of disaster risk communication and find out the relationship between risk communication and adaptation behaviors. A framework of risk communication process was established to describe how to trigger adaptation behaviors and encourage adaptation behaviors with risk communication strategies. An ISM model was utilized to verify the framework by using household questionnaire survey. Moreover, a logit choice model was build to test the important factors for effective risk communication and adaption behavior. The result of this study would provide governments or relevant institutions suggestions about risk communication strategies and adaptation strategies to enhance the adaptive capacity of households and reduce the

  19. Determination of the adaptive response induced In vivo by gamma radiation and its relation with the sensibility to the damage induction in the DNA and with the repairing capacity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mendiola C, M.T.

    2002-01-01

    The kinetics of damage induction and repair at different doses as well as the adaptive response induced by gamma ray exposure were determined in murine leukocytes in vivo. The damage-repair kinetics were established after the exposure to 0.5, 1.0 or 2.0 Gy in a 137 Cs source. Peripheral blood samples were obtained from the tails of mice, the percentage of damaged cells and the DNA migration in each one were analyzed by the single cell gel electrophoresis (SCG) technique or comet assay. Results indicated that there was an induction of approximately 75% comets with the doses of 1.0 and 2.0 Gy, which was considerably reduced to 22% and 42% respectively during the first 15 minutes. This evidences the presence of a rapid repair process and suggests that leucocytes are genetically well prepared to repair this kind of damage. After 15 minutes, a second increase in the percentage of damaged cells that was proportional to dose occurred, which seems to represent the breaks produced during the repair of other kind of lesions. After that a second reduction was observed, reaching values near to the basal ones, except with the dose of 2.0 Gy. The kinetics obtained with the dose of 0.5 Gy was similar to that established with 1.0 Gy, but in this case the initial damage was 50 % lower. Besides, the adaptive response was observed after the exposure of the mice to an adaptive dose of 0.01 Gy and to a challenge dose of 1.0 Gy 60 minutes later. The pretreatment reduced the percentage of damaged cells caused by the challenge dose to one third approximately, and also diminished this parameter produced during the late repair process. This indicates that the early adaptive response is caused, instead of by an increment in repair, by the induction of a process that protects DNA from damage induction by radiation, i.e synthesis of substances that increase the scavenging of free radicals. (Author)

  20. Climate change-related risks and adaptation strategies as perceived in dairy cattle farming systems in Tunisia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hajer Amamou

    Full Text Available The perception of risks due to climate change by farmers and the measures they take to address those risks are of paramount importance in policy-making if the implementations of targeted adaptation and mitigation strategies are to be economically and environmentally sustainable. This study focused on Tunisian dairy farmers’ perceptions of the risks and the actions taken to cope with changes attributable to climate change. Using a bottom-up approach, 566 surveys were carried out randomly among dairy farmers throughout Tunisia. A total of 70 diagnostic variables relating to farm characteristics, resources, management, performances and profit, in addition to climate change risk perception and adaptation strategies, were identified and analyzed. Using multivariate statistical analysis, four dairy farming groups were identified. The largest proportions of farmers belonged to the two above-ground dairy systems: without utilized agricultural areas; and with non-dairy utilized agricultural areas (Clusters 1 and 2. A minority of farmers belonged to medium-sized and large farms that specialized in milk production (Clusters 3 and 4 and has access to sufficient land, water and capital resources. In all the clusters, almost all the farmers perceived that the greatest impact of climate change would be on cow performance and forage production. The attitudes of the farmers towards adaptation to climate change are associated with farm typology. They focused mainly on increasing water capacity for livestock and crop production and improving livestock and housing conditions. The knowledge obtained from this study could be helpful for decision-makers and stakeholders in efforts to develop policies for farm management practices that address climate change and can be adapted to the country’s diverse farming systems. Keywords: Dairy farming system, Typology, Adaptation, Climate change

  1. Soft Thermal Sensor with Mechanical Adaptability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Hui; Qi, Dianpeng; Liu, Zhiyuan; Chandran, Bevita K; Wang, Ting; Yu, Jiancan; Chen, Xiaodong

    2016-11-01

    A soft thermal sensor with mechanical adaptability is fabricated by the combination of single-wall carbon nanotubes with carboxyl groups and self-healing polymers. This study demonstrates that this soft sensor has excellent thermal response and mechanical adaptability. It shows tremendous promise for improving the service life of soft artificial-intelligence robots and protecting thermally sensitive electronics from the risk of damage by high temperature. © 2016 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  2. Diet-Induced Weight Loss Reduces DNA Damage and Cardiometabolic Risk Factors in Overweight/Obese Women with Polycystic Ovary Syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soares, Nayara Pereira; Santos, Ana Celly Souza dos; Costa, Eduardo Caldas; Azevedo, George Dantas; Damasceno, Débora Cristina; Fayh, Ana Paula Trussardi; Lemos, Telma Maria Araújo Moura

    2016-01-01

    We aimed to investigate the impact of following a diet to induce weight loss (500 kcal deficit per day) over DNA damage and cardiometabolic risk factors in women with overweight/obesity diagnosed with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS). A study was conducted in Natal, RN, Brazil selecting overweight/obese (body mass index ≥25 and weight loss, decreased sexual hormone and cardiometabolic markers such as insulin, homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol were verified In the multivariate regression analysis, quantitative insulin sensitivity check index and progesterone were responsible for the variation markers in DNA damage before the diet, losing its influence upon diet. DNA damage and the impact of cardiometabolic risk factors decreased after the intervention in women with PCOS, indicating the relevance of a nutritional approach in this group of patients. © 2016 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  3. Flood damage estimation of companies: A comparison of Stage-Damage-Functions and Random Forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sieg, Tobias; Kreibich, Heidi; Vogel, Kristin; Merz, Bruno

    2017-04-01

    The development of appropriate flood damage models plays an important role not only for the damage assessment after an event but also to develop adaptation and risk mitigation strategies. So called Stage-Damage-Functions (SDFs) are often applied as a standard approach to estimate flood damage. These functions assign a certain damage to the water depth depending on the use or other characteristics of the exposed objects. Recent studies apply machine learning algorithms like Random Forests (RFs) to model flood damage. These algorithms usually consider more influencing variables and promise to depict a more detailed insight into the damage processes. In addition they provide an inherent validation scheme. Our study focuses on direct, tangible damage of single companies. The objective is to model and validate the flood damage suffered by single companies with SDFs and RFs. The data sets used are taken from two surveys conducted after the floods in the Elbe and Danube catchments in the years 2002 and 2013 in Germany. Damage to buildings (n = 430), equipment (n = 651) as well as goods and stock (n = 530) are taken into account. The model outputs are validated via a comparison with the actual flood damage acquired by the surveys and subsequently compared with each other. This study investigates the gain in model performance with the use of additional data and the advantages and disadvantages of the RFs compared to SDFs. RFs show an increase in model performance with an increasing amount of data records over a comparatively large range, while the model performance of the SDFs is already saturated for a small set of records. In addition, the RFs are able to identify damage influencing variables, which improves the understanding of damage processes. Hence, RFs can slightly improve flood damage predictions and provide additional insight into the underlying mechanisms compared to SDFs.

  4. Oxidative damage markers are significantly associated with the carotid artery intima-media thickness after controlling for conventional risk factors of atherosclerosis in men.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jin-Ha Yoon

    Full Text Available This study aimed to assess the association between oxidative damage markers and carotid artery intima-media thickness (CIMT after controlling for conventional risk factors of atherosclerosis in multiple logistic regression models.Fifty-one case male participants (CIMT ≥ 0.9 mm were enrolled during their visits to Korean Genomic Rural Cohort Study of Wonju centers between May 1 and August 31, 2011, along with 51 control participants (CIMT < 0.9 mm selected using frequency matching by age group. The levels of oxidative damage markers, 8-hydroxy-2'-deoxyquuanosine (8-OHdG, malondialdehyde (MDA, and 8-iso-prostaglandin F2α (Isoprostane, were measured. Conditional logistic regression models were used to evaluate relative relationships between the oxidative damage markers and the risk of high CIMT.The markers of oxidative lipid (Isoprostane and MDA and DNA (8-OHdG damage were associated with CIMT after controlling for the conventional risk factors, including age, low density lipoprotein, body mass index, smoking history, alcohol consumption, and metabolic syndrome (ORs [95% CI] for Isoprostane: 3rd tertile, 8.47 [2.59-27.67]; for MDA: 3rd tertile, 8.47 [2.59-27.67]; for 8-OHdG: 3rd tertile, 5.58 [1.79-17.33]. When all the oxidative damage markers were incorporated in the same logistic regression model, only Isoprostane was significantly related to CIMT (OR [95% CI]: 4.22 [1.31-13.53] in 2nd tertile and 14.21 [3.34-60.56] in 3rd tertile.In this nested case-control study, the oxidative damage markers of lipid and DNA were associated with CIMT even after controlling for the conventional risk factors of cardiovascular diseases.

  5. COREDAR: COmmunicating Risk of sea level rise and Engaging stakeholDers in framing community based Adaptation stRategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amsad Ibrahim Khan, S. K.; Chen, R. S.; de Sherbinin, A. M.; Andimuthu, R.; Kandasamy, P.

    2015-12-01

    Accelerated sea-level rise (SLR) is a major long term outcome of climate change leading to increased inundation of low-lying areas. Particularly, global cities that are located on or near the coasts are often situated in low lying areas and these locations put global cities at greater risk to SLR. Localized flooding will profoundly impact vulnerable communities located in high-risk urban areas. Building community resilience and adapting to SLR is increasingly a high priority for cities. On the other hand, Article 6 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change addresses the importance of climate change communication and engaging stakeholders in decision making process. Importantly, Community Based Adaptation (CBA) experiences emphasize that it is important to understand a community's unique perceptions of their adaptive capacities to identify useful solutions and that scientific and technical information on anticipated coastal climate impacts needs to be translated into a suitable language and format that allows people to be able to participate in adaptation planning. To address this challenge, this study has put forth three research questions from the lens of urban community engagement in SLR adaptation, (1) What, if any, community engagement in addressing SLR occurring in urban areas; (2) What information do communities need and how does it need to be communicated, in order to be better prepared and have a greater sense of agency? and (3) How can government agencies from city to federal levels facilitate community engagement and action?. To answer these questions this study has evolved a framework "COREDAR" (COmmunicating Risk of sea level rise and Engaging stakeholDers in framing community based Adaptation StRategies) to communicate and transfer complex climate data and information such as projected SLR under different scenarios of IPCC AR5, predicted impact of SLR, prioritizing vulnerability, etc. to concerned stakeholders and local communities

  6. Stepping reaction time and gait adaptability are significantly impaired in people with Parkinson's disease: Implications for fall risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caetano, Maria Joana D; Lord, Stephen R; Allen, Natalie E; Brodie, Matthew A; Song, Jooeun; Paul, Serene S; Canning, Colleen G; Menant, Jasmine C

    2018-02-01

    Decline in the ability to take effective steps and to adapt gait, particularly under challenging conditions, may be important reasons why people with Parkinson's disease (PD) have an increased risk of falling. This study aimed to determine the extent of stepping and gait adaptability impairments in PD individuals as well as their associations with PD symptoms, cognitive function and previous falls. Thirty-three older people with PD and 33 controls were assessed in choice stepping reaction time, Stroop stepping and gait adaptability tests; measurements identified as fall risk factors in older adults. People with PD had similar mean choice stepping reaction times to healthy controls, but had significantly greater intra-individual variability. In the Stroop stepping test, the PD participants were more likely to make an error (48 vs 18%), took 715 ms longer to react (2312 vs 1517 ms) and had significantly greater response variability (536 vs 329 ms) than the healthy controls. People with PD also had more difficulties adapting their gait in response to targets (poorer stepping accuracy) and obstacles (increased number of steps) appearing at short notice on a walkway. Within the PD group, higher disease severity, reduced cognition and previous falls were associated with poorer stepping and gait adaptability performances. People with PD have reduced ability to adapt gait to unexpected targets and obstacles and exhibit poorer stepping responses, particularly in a test condition involving conflict resolution. Such impaired stepping responses in Parkinson's disease are associated with disease severity, cognitive impairment and falls. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Risk of Damage to the Somatic Innervation of the Penis during the AdVanceProcedure: An Anatomical Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hogewoning, Cornelis R C; Elzevier, Henk W; Pelger, Rob C M; Bekker, Milou D; DeRuiter, Marco C

    2015-08-01

    One of the methods to treat post radical prostatectomy stress urinary incontinence is the AdVance (American Medical Systems, Minnetonka, MN, USA) male sling procedure. During this procedure, the somatic innervation of the penis may be at risk for injury. Six AdVance procedures were performed in six donated bodies at the Anatomy and Embryology Department of the Leiden University Medical Centre. The pelves were dissected and the shortest distance between the sling and the dorsal nerve of the penis (DNP) was documented. The aim of this study was to describe the anatomical relation between the AdVance male sling and penile nerves based on the dissection of six adult male pelves. The AdVance male sling procedure was conducted in six donated male bodies. After placement, the pelves were dissected and the shortest distance between sling and the DNP was documented. The main outcome measure was the distance between the AdVance male sling and the DNP. The mean distance of the sling to the DNP was 4.1 mm and was found situated directly next to the nerve (distance 0 mm) in 4 out of 12 (33%) hemipelves. The distance of the sling to the obturator neurovascular bundle was 30 mm or more in all six bodies. Damage to the DNP caused by the AdVance male sling procedure appears to be an extremely rare complication, which has not been described in current literature. The proximity of the AdVance to the DNP could, however, pose a risk that should be taken into consideration by physicians and patients when opting for surgery. © 2015 International Society for Sexual Medicine.

  8. Vasopressor use after initial damage control laparotomy increases risk for anastomotic disruption in the management of destructive colon injuries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, Peter E; Nunn, Andrew M; Wormer, Blair A; Christmas, A Britton; Gibeault, Lindsay A; Green, John M; Sing, Ronald F

    2013-12-01

    Management of destructive colon injuries during damage control (DC) laparotomy is debated. The authors reviewed a single institution's experience with destructive colon injuries to identify risk factors for anastomotic failure after colon reconstruction. The authors identified all trauma patients sustaining destructive colon injuries between 2002 and 2011 from their medical center's trauma registry. Anastomotic leak was defined as suture or staple line disruption or enteral fistula formation. Of 171 identified patients, 68 had DC procedures, 41 (60%) had subsequent anastomoses performed during the same hospitalization, and 27 (40%) were diverted. The colon anastomotic leak rate in patients who underwent DC laparotomy was higher than in patients who were reconstructed at the primary operation in a non-DC setting (17% vs 6%, P = .09). The use of vasopressors after the initial DC operation more than quadrupled the leak rate to 50% (P = .02). Colonic anastomotic disruptions yield deadly consequences, and diversion rather than anastomosis should be used in patients who require vasopressor support after the initial DC procedure. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Adaptation to Climate Change in Risk and Vulnerability Analysis on a Municipal Level, a basis for further work

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mossberg Sonnek, Karin; Lindberg, Anna; Lindgren, Johan

    2007-12-01

    The aim of Risk and Vulnerability Analysis (RVA) at local authority level in Sweden is to increase the capacity of local authorities to handle crises and to reduce vulnerability in the community. RVA processes could be an appropriate starting-point for discussions on how the community is influenced by climate change and how its effects could be reduced using various adjustment measures. In the report we present four methods: ROSA, MVA, IBERO and the Car Dun AB method. These have all been developed to support Swedish local authority RVA processes. We also present five international frameworks that have been developed by the organisations UNDP, USAID, UKCIP, C-CIARN and CSIRO to help decision-makers and stakeholders to adapt to climate change. Together, these descriptions form a foundation for continuing the work being done within the project Climatools, in which tools are being produced to be used by local authorities in adapting to climate change. In the report, we also discuss the concepts 'risk', 'vulnerability' and 'adaptation' and how analysis of adaptation to climate change has changed in recent years

  10. Adaptation to Climate Change and Managing Disaster Risk in the Caribbean and South-East Asia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dolcemascolo, G. [Asian Disaster Preparedness Center ADPC, Pathumthani (Thailand); Collymore, J.; Keipi, K. [Inter-American Development Bank IDB, Christ Church (Barbados)

    2004-05-01

    Small island and coastal nations of the world have long been recognized as being among the most likely to be affected by the potential impacts of global climate change. Such nations may be found in both the Caribbean and Asian regions. These regions share other commonalities as well, such as tropical climates and, to some extent, the hazards to which these countries are vulnerable. The inextricable linkage between climate change and disaster management emerges from the potential of the former to result in an increased frequency and severity of hydro-meteorological hazards and the associated increase in risk faced by countries as a whole and by vulnerable communities in particular. Within the Caribbean, the most visible of these impacts has been the increasing vulnerability to severe storms and the increased frequency and intensity of flood events. In Asia, the severity of weather extremes associated with the El Nino phenomenon has been apparent. Recent events have resulted in significant social, economic and environmental losses. But, the more gradual-yet nevertheless potentially as catastrophic-impacts expected from climate change include enhanced coastal and beach erosion; loss of land and property; dislocation of people; reduced resilience of coastal ecosystems and hence reduced viability for fisheries; and the bleaching and destruction of coral reefs. For the island states of both the Caribbean and Southeast Asia, which depend heavily on tourism, agriculture and fisheries for their livelihood, these impacts could be ruinous. For many countries, increased vulnerability to water shortages due to climate change is also a very significant concern. The need for a comprehensive integrated approach to natural hazard risk management that would combine the broader climate change and risk management agendas, as well as the urgency to advance the mainstreaming of disaster management and climate change, resulted in the convening of the Seminar on Climate Change and Severe

  11. Health risk in the context of climate change and adaptation - Concept and mapping as an integrated approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kienberger, S.; Notenbaert, A.; Zeil, P.; Bett, B.; Hagenlocher, M.; Omolo, A.

    2012-04-01

    Climate change has been stated as being one of the greatest challenges to global health in the current century. Climate change impacts on human health and the socio-economic and related poverty consequences are however still poorly understood. While epidemiological issues are strongly coupled with environmental and climatic parameters, the social and economic circumstances of populations might be of equal or even greater importance when trying to identify vulnerable populations and design appropriate and well-targeted adaptation measures. The inter-linkage between climate change, human health risk and socio-economic impacts remains an important - but largely outstanding - research field. We present an overview on how risk is traditionally being conceptualised in the human health domain and reflect critically on integrated approaches as being currently used in the climate change context. The presentation will also review existing approaches, and how they can be integrated towards adaptation tools. Following this review, an integrated risk concept is being presented, which has been currently adapted under the EC FP7 research project (HEALTHY FUTURES; http://www.healthyfutures.eu/). In this approach, health risk is not only defined through the disease itself (as hazard) but also by the inherent vulnerability of the system, population or region under study. It is in fact the interaction of environment and society that leads to the development of diseases and the subsequent risk of being negatively affected by it. In this conceptual framework vulnerability is being attributed to domains of lack of resilience as well as underlying preconditions determining susceptibilities. To fulfil a holistic picture vulnerability can be associated to social, economic, environmental, institutional, cultural and physical dimensions. The proposed framework also establishes the important nexus to adaptation and how different measures can be related to avoid disease outbreaks, reduce

  12. Adapting Judicial Supervision to the Risk Level of Drug Offenders: Discharge and 6-month Outcomes from a Prospective Matching Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marlowe, Douglas B.; Festinger, David S.; Dugosh, Karen L.; Lee, Patricia A.; Benasutti, Kathleen M.

    2007-01-01

    This article reports recent findings from a program of experimental research examining the effects of adapting judicial supervision to the risk level of drug-abusing offenders. Prior studies revealed that high-risk participants with (1) antisocial personality disorder or (2) a history of drug abuse treatment performed significantly better in drug court when they were scheduled to attend frequent, bi-weekly judicial status hearings in court. Low-risk participants performed equivalently regardless of the schedule of court hearings. The current study prospectively matched misdemeanor drug court clients to the optimal schedule of court hearings based upon an assessment of their risk status, and compared outcomes to those of clients randomly assigned to the standard schedule of court hearings. Results confirmed that high-risk participants graduated at a higher rate, provided more drug-negative urine specimens at 6 months post-admission, and reported significantly less drug use and alcohol intoxication at 6 months post-admission when they were matched to bi-weekly hearings as compared to the usual schedule of hearings. These findings yield practical information for enhancing the efficacy and cost-efficiency of drug court services. Directions for future research on adaptive programming for drug offenders are discussed. PMID:17071020

  13. Attitudes to climate change, perceptions of disaster risk, and mitigation and adaptation behavior in Yunlin County, Taiwan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Yung-Jaan; Tung, Chuan-Ming; Lin, Shih-Chien

    2018-02-08

    Issues that are associated with climate change have global importance. Most related studies take a national or regional perspective on the impact of climate change. Taiwan is constrained by its geographical conditions, which increase its vulnerability to climate change, especially in its western coastal areas. The county that is most affected by climate change is Yunlin. In 2013-2014, projects that were sponsored by Taiwan's government analyzed the relationship among synthesized vulnerability, ecological footprint (EF) and adaptation to climate change and proposed 15 categories of synthesized vulnerability and EF values. This study further examines the relationship between vulnerability and EF values and examines how residents of four townships-Linnei, Sihu, Mailiao, and Huwei-cope with the effects of climate change. This study investigates whether the residents of the four townships vary in their attitudes to climate change, their perceptions of disaster risk, and their behavioral intentions with respect to coping with climate change. The structural equation model (SEM) is used to examine the relationships among attitudes to climate change, perceptions of disaster risk, and the behavioral intentions of residents in townships with various vulnerabilities to climate change. The results that are obtained using the SEM reveal that climate change mitigation/adaptation behavior is affected by attitudes to climate change and perceptions of disaster risk. However, the effects of attitudes and perceptions on mitigation and adaptation that are mediated by place attachment are not statistically significant.

  14. Homocysteine and the C677T Gene Polymorphism of Its Key Metabolic Enzyme MTHFR Are Risk Factors of Early Renal Damage in Hypertension in a Chinese Han Population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yun, Lin; Xu, Rui; Li, Guohua; Yao, Yucai; Li, Jiamin; Cong, Dehong; Xu, Xingshun; Zhang, Lihua

    2015-12-01

    The combined hyperhomocysteinemia condition is a feature of the Chinese hypertensive population. This study used the case-control method to investigate the association between plasma homocysteine and the C677T gene polymorphism of its key metabolic enzyme, 5, 10-methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR), and early renal damage in a hypertensive Chinese Han population.A total of 379 adult essential hypertensive patients were selected as the study subjects. The personal information, clinical indicators, and the C677T gene polymorphism of MTHFR were texted. This study used the urine microalbumin/urine creatinine ratio (UACR) as a grouping basis: the hypertension without renal damage group (NRD group) and the hypertension combined with early renal damage group (ERD group).Early renal damage in the Chinese hypertensive population was associated with body weight, systolic pressure, diastolic pressure, urea nitrogen, serum creatinine, cystatin C, uric acid, aldosterone, and glomerular filtration rate. The homocysteine level and the UACR in the TT genotype group were higher than those in the CC genotype group. The binary logistic regression analysis results showed that after sex and age were adjusted, the MTHFR C677T gene polymorphism was correlated with early renal damage in hypertension in both the recessive model and in the additive model.Plasma homocysteine and the C677T gene polymorphism of its key metabolic enzyme MTHFR might be independent risk factors of early renal damage in the hypertensive Chinese Han population.

  15. A vulnerability and risk assessment of SEPTA's regional rail : a transit climate change adaptation assessment pilot.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-08-01

    This final report for the Federal Transit Administration (FTA) Transit Climate Change Adaptation Assessment Pilot describes the actions : taken, information gathered, analyses performed, and lessons learned throughout the pilot project. This report d...

  16. Building on the links between climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Vincent, K

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available supply will subsequently be reduced. In some southern African countries, genetically modified organisms (GMOs) have been embraced to address challenges of low productivity and related occurrences of food insecurity; but that adaptation to climate... dispersal and erosion mean that containing the effects of GMOs in one area is difficult. The same challenges apply for DRR activities, except that they tend to be a subset of adaptation. In addition, DRR activities tend to cover a smaller scale...

  17. The Adaptation of Ways and Methods of Risk Minimization in Local Payment Systems in Public Transport

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Avdaev Mausar Yushaevich

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The problems of risk management gain special relevance in the conditions of payment systems development in public passenger transport in Russia. The risk carriers as well as the sources of their occurrence are revealed; the characteristics of private risks of individual participants in the system of public passenger transport are presented. The directions of risk management in relation to the payment system in public transport are reasoned and structured. It is proved that the choice of specific ways to minimize the risks in local payment systems in public transport is conditioned by the following factors – the nature of the payment system integration in public transport areas, the temporary nature of risk components effect due to the improvement of organizational, economic and technological factors, the change of the stages of payment systems development, the evaluation of risks effects. The article reasons the possibility of using and adjusting traditional ways (risk evasion, risk compensation, decrease in risk level, risk transfer, distribution of risk between participants and the methods of risk management in the payment systems in public transport according to the stages of their development and functioning for the processing center, passenger motor transport organizations, financial center and passengers (payers. The authors justify the directions of integrating the local payment systems of public transport in the national payment system, taking into account the risks involved in the activity of its members.

  18. Data Gap Analysis and Damage Case Studies: Risk Analyses from Construction and Demolition Debris Landfills and Recycling Facilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    The report presents an evaluation of construction and demolition (C&D) debris management in the US to update and expand upon the previous set of data to include information on more recent cases of damage and potential impacts and expand the breadth of damages beyond groundwater a...

  19. An Accelerated Path to Assisting At-Risk Communities Adapt to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Socci, A.

    2010-12-01

    Merely throwing money at adaptation is not development. Nor can the focus of adaptation assistance be development alone. Rather, adaptation assistance is arguably best served when it is country- or community-driven, and the overarching process is informed and guided by a set of underlying principles or a philosophy of action that primarily aims at improving the lives and livelihoods of affected communities. In the instance of adaptation assistance, I offer the following three guiding principles: 1. adaptation is at its core, about people; 2. adaptation is not merely an investment opportunity or suite of projects but a process, a lifestyle; and 3. adaptation cannot take place by proxy; nor can it be imposed on others by outside entities. With principles in hand, a suggested first step toward action is to assess what resources, capacity and skills one is capable of bringing to the table and whether these align with community needs. Clearly issues of scale demand a strategic approach in the interest of avoiding overselling and worse, creating false expectations. And because adaptation is a process, consider how best to ensure that adaptation activities remain sustainable by virtue of enhancing community capacity, resiliency and expertise should assistance and/or resources dwindle or come to an end. While not necessarily a first step, community engagement is undoubtedly the most critical element in any assistance process, requiring sorting out and agreeing upon terms of cooperation and respective roles and responsibilities, aspects of which should include discussions on how to assess the efficacy of resource use, how to assess progress, success or outcomes, what constitutes same, and who decides. It is virtually certain that adaptation activities are unlikely to take hold or maintain if they are not community led, community driven or community owned. There is no adaptation by proxy or fiat. It's fair to ask at this point, how might one know what communities and

  20. Flood risk and adaptation strategies under climate change and urban expansion: A probabilistic analysis using global data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muis, Sanne; Güneralp, Burak; Jongman, Brenden; Aerts, Jeroen C J H; Ward, Philip J

    2015-12-15

    An accurate understanding of flood risk and its drivers is crucial for effective risk management. Detailed risk projections, including uncertainties, are however rarely available, particularly in developing countries. This paper presents a method that integrates recent advances in global-scale modeling of flood hazard and land change, which enables the probabilistic analysis of future trends in national-scale flood risk. We demonstrate its application to Indonesia. We develop 1000 spatially-explicit projections of urban expansion from 2000 to 2030 that account for uncertainty associated with population and economic growth projections, as well as uncertainty in where urban land change may occur. The projections show that the urban extent increases by 215%-357% (5th and 95th percentiles). Urban expansion is particularly rapid on Java, which accounts for 79% of the national increase. From 2000 to 2030, increases in exposure will elevate flood risk by, on average, 76% and 120% for river and coastal floods. While sea level rise will further increase the exposure-induced trend by 19%-37%, the response of river floods to climate change is highly uncertain. However, as urban expansion is the main driver of future risk, the implementation of adaptation measures is increasingly urgent, regardless of the wide uncertainty in climate projections. Using probabilistic urban projections, we show that spatial planning can be a very effective adaptation strategy. Our study emphasizes that global data can be used successfully for probabilistic risk assessment in data-scarce countries. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Safety and effectiveness of a polyvinyl alcohol barrier in reducing risks of vascular tissue damage during anterior spinal revision surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeffords, Paul; Li, Jinsheng; Panchal, Deepal; Denoziere, Guilhem; Fetterolf, Donald

    2012-05-01

    This study was conducted as a controlled, prospective investigation to show the safety and efficacy of a polyvinyl alcohol (PVA) device in a sheep model. To evaluate the ability of a permanent PVA hydrogel barrier to reduce the risk of potential vessel damage during anterior vertebral revision surgery, to provide a nonadhesive barrier at the surgical site, and to create a surgical revision plane of dissection. The development of scar tissue and adhesions presents a significant postoperative problem in spine surgery, where adhesion involvement of overlying structures can cause pain, neurovascular complications, and present a difficult surgical environment during revisions. The devices were implanted onto the ventral surface of exposed lumbar intervertebral discs using an anterolateral approach. One disc separated from the study site was also exposed to serve as a control. Three sheep each were then evaluated with an explant procedure at 30 and 90 days. Extensive sampling was undertaken to evaluate gross anatomic, micropathologic, and biochemical environments and properties of the device. The structural properties and appearance of the device remained intact at both 30 and 90 days. The material remained flexible, hydrophilic, and soft, without visible resorption or decomposition. The material was well tolerated by the animal, with minimal histologic signs of inflammation or rejection. Tissue planes were easily able to be localized by the surgeon attempting to locate the prior surgical site at the time of resection. The PVA vessel shield effectively protected the structures overlying the sheep spine during revision, providing a clear dissection plane for resection at repeat surgery. The overlying structures separated from the previous surgical site with no adhesion, and allowed safe separation of adjacent tissues without the use of sharp dissection.

  2. Willingness to pay for agricultural risk insurance as a strategy to adapt climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mekonnen Melesse, Tigist

    2017-01-01

    Agricultural production is subject to high risk associated with environmental and agro-ecological conditions. Farmers continuously make decisions to mitigate the various adversities. This study evaluates farm households’ willingness to pay for agricultural risk insurance intervention introduced in

  3. Management adaptation to fires in the wildland-urban risk areas in Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gema Herrero-Corral

    2013-01-01

    Forest fires not only cause damage to ecosystems but also result in major socio-economic losses and in the worst cases loss of human life. Specifically, the incidence of fires in the overlapping areas between building structures and forest vegetation (wildland-urban interface, WUI) generates highly-complex emergencies due to the presence of people and goods....

  4. Impact of climate change, seedling type and provenance on the risk of damage to Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) seedlings in Sweden due to early summer frosts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Langvall, Ola (Swedish Univ. of Agricultural Sciences, Unit for Field-based Forest Research, Asa Forest Research Station, Lammhult (Sweden))

    2011-04-15

    A model including site-specific microclimate-affecting properties of a forest regeneration area together with seedling characteristics was used to evaluate the accumulated risk of frost damage to Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) seedlings. Climate change in Sweden was simulated on the basis of the regional climate model RCA3. The daily average temperature, the driving factor for bud burst in the model, was adjusted using the difference between the mean of the climate model data for the years 1961-1990 and 2036-2065. The model was run for a highly frost prone, clear-cut site in which bare-rooted Norway spruce seedlings of mid-Swedish provenance were planted. Alternate runs were conducted with data for containerized seedlings and seedlings of Belarusian origin. The study showed that bud burst will occur at earlier dates throughout Sweden in the period 2036-2065 if the climate changes according to either of the climate scenarios examined, compared to the reference period 1961-1990. Furthermore, the risk of damage to Norway spruce seedlings as a result of frost events during summer will increase in southern Sweden and be unaffected or decrease in northern Sweden. The risk of frost damage was exacerbated in containerized seedlings, while the risk was lower for the seedlings of Belarusian provenance when compared with bare-rooted seedlings or seedlings of mid-Swedish origin

  5. Responding to Sea Level Rise: Does Short-Term Risk Reduction Inhibit Successful Long-Term Adaptation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keeler, A. G.; McNamara, D. E.; Irish, J. L.

    2018-04-01

    Most existing coastal climate-adaptation planning processes, and the research supporting them, tightly focus on how to use land use planning, policy tools, and infrastructure spending to reduce risks from rising seas and changing storm conditions. While central to community response to sea level rise, we argue that the exclusive nature of this focus biases against and delays decisions to take more discontinuous, yet proactive, actions to adapt—for example, relocation and aggressive individual protection investments. Public policies should anticipate real estate market responses to risk reduction to avoid large costs—social and financial—when and if sea level rise and other climate-related factors elevate the risks to such high levels that discontinuous responses become the least bad alternative.

  6. Managers facing the climatic risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-01-01

    This colloquium aimed to analyze the relations between the climatic changes and extreme meteorological events and on the associated risks. It provides information and knowledge on the state of the art concerning the today scientific knowledge, the prevention measures and the adaptation facing the risks and the difficult estimation of the climatic damages costs. (A.L.B.)

  7. Adapting risk management and computational intelligence network optimization techniques to improve traffic throughput and tail risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-04-01

    Risk management techniques are used to analyze fluctuations in uncontrollable variables and keep those fluctuations from impeding : the core function of a system or business. Examples of this are making sure that volatility in copper and aluminum pri...

  8. Impact of head and neck cancer adaptive radiotherapy to spare the parotid glands and decrease the risk of xerostomia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castelli, Joel; Simon, Antoine; Louvel, Guillaume; Henry, Olivier; Chajon, Enrique; Nassef, Mohamed; Haigron, Pascal; Cazoulat, Guillaume; Ospina, Juan David; Jegoux, Franck; Benezery, Karen; de Crevoisier, Renaud

    2015-01-09

    Large anatomical variations occur during the course of intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) for locally advanced head and neck cancer (LAHNC). The risks are therefore a parotid glands (PG) overdose and a xerostomia increase. The purposes of the study were to estimate: - the PG overdose and the xerostomia risk increase during a "standard" IMRT (IMRTstd); - the benefits of an adaptive IMRT (ART) with weekly replanning to spare the PGs and limit the risk of xerostomia. Fifteen patients received radical IMRT (70 Gy) for LAHNC. Weekly CTs were used to estimate the dose distributions delivered during the treatment, corresponding either to the initial planning (IMRTstd) or to weekly replanning (ART). PGs dose were recalculated at the fraction, from the weekly CTs. PG cumulated doses were then estimated using deformable image registration. The following PG doses were compared: pre-treatment planned dose, per-treatment IMRTstd and ART. The corresponding estimated risks of xerostomia were also compared. Correlations between anatomical markers and dose differences were searched. Compared to the initial planning, a PG overdose was observed during IMRTstd for 59% of the PGs, with an average increase of 3.7 Gy (10.0 Gy maximum) for the mean dose, and of 8.2% (23.9% maximum) for the risk of xerostomia. Compared to the initial planning, weekly replanning reduced the PG mean dose for all the patients (pxerostomia by 11% (pxerostomia risk.

  9. The Gap of Climate Adaptation Development of the Spatial Planning System in Taiwan : How the Multilevel Planning Agencies Respond to Climate Risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lin, Y.T.

    2015-01-01

    Recognizing that climate risk is a real threat to the environment and society, spatial planning plays a key role in developing adaptation policy responses as well as in integrating the territorial or spatial impacts of governmental sectoral policies. Planning for adaptation through policy

  10. Adaptive governance, uncertainty, and risk: policy framing and responses to climate change, drought, and flood

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hurlbert, M.; Gupta, J.

    2016-01-01

    As climate change impacts result in more extreme events (such as droughts and floods), the need to understand which policies facilitate effective climate change adaptation becomes crucial. Hence, this article answers the question: How do governments and policymakers frame policy in relation to

  11. Cross-cultural adaptation of the STRATIFY tool in detecting and predicting risk of falling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enríquez de Luna-Rodríguez, Margarita; Aranda-Gallardo, Marta; Canca-Sánchez, José Carlos; Vazquez-Blanco, M José; Moya-Suárez, Ana Belén; Morales-Asencio, José Miguel

    To adapt to Spanish language the STRATIFY tool for clinical use in the Spanish-speaking World. A multicenter, 2 care settings cross-sectional study cultural adaptation study in acute care hospitals and nursing homes was performed in Andalusia during 2014. The adaptation process was divided into 4 stages: translation, back-translation, equivalence between the 2 back-translations and piloting of the Spanish version, thus obtaining the final version. The validity of appearance, content validity and the time required to complete the scale were taken into account. For analysis, the median, central tendency and dispersion of scores, the interquartile range, and the interquartile deviation for the possible variability in responses it was calculated. Content validity measured by content validity index reached a profit of 1. For the validity aspect the clarity and comprehensibility of the questions were taken into account. Of the 5 questions of the instrument, 2 had a small disagreement solved with the introduction of an explanatory phrase to achieve conceptual equivalence. Median both questions were equal or superior to 5. The average time for completion of the scale was less than 3 minutes. The process of adaptation to Spanish of STRATIFY has led to a semantic version and culturally equivalent to the original for easy filling and understanding for use in the Spanish-speaking world. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  12. Coping with drought risk: empirical analysis of farmers' drought adaption in the south-west Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Duinen, Rianne; Filatova, Tatiana; Geurts, Petrus A.T.M.; van der Veen, A.

    2014-01-01

    Climate change projections show that periods of droughts are likely to increase, causing decreasing water availability, salinization, and consequently farm income loss in the south-west Netherlands. Adaptation is the key to decrease a farmer's drought vulnerability and to secure the agricultural

  13. Evidence for a link between changes to gaze behaviour and risk of falling in older adults during adaptive locomotion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chapman, G J; Hollands, M A

    2006-11-01

    There is increasing evidence that gaze stabilization with respect to footfall targets plays a crucial role in the control of visually guided stepping and that there are significant changes to gaze behaviour as we age. However, past research has not measured if age-related changes in gaze behaviour are associated with changes to stepping performance. This paper aims to identify differences in gaze behaviour between young (n=8) adults, older adults determined to be at a low-risk of falling (low-risk, n=4) and older adults prone to falling (high-risk, n=4) performing an adaptive locomotor task and attempts to relate observed differences in gaze behaviour to decline in stepping performance. Participants walked at a self-selected pace along a 9m pathway stepping into two footfall target locations en route. Gaze behaviour and lower limb kinematics were recorded using an ASL 500 gaze tracker interfaced with a Vicon motion analysis system. Results showed that older adults looked significantly sooner to targets, and fixated the targets for longer, than younger adults. There were also significant differences in these measures between high and low-risk older adults. On average, high-risk older adults looked away from targets significantly sooner and demonstrated less accurate and more variable foot placements than younger adults and low-risk older adults. These findings suggest that, as we age, we need more time to plan precise stepping movements and clearly demonstrate that there are differences between low-risk and high-risk older adults in both where and when they look at future stepping targets and the precision with which they subsequently step. We propose that high-risk older adults may prioritize the planning of future actions over the accurate execution of ongoing movements and that adoption of this strategy may contribute to an increased likelihood of falls. Copyright 2005 Elsevier B.V.

  14. Ionizing radiation-induced DNA damage and repair as a potential biomarker in biodosimetry, cancer risk analysis and for prediction of radiotherapy induced toxicity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Satish Rao, B.S.

    2017-01-01

    Lymphocytes isolated from peripheral blood from 100 healthy individuals, 232 cancer patients (cervical, breast cancer and head and neck cancer) irradiated in vitro or in vivo were used for measuring DNA damage and repair. The microscopic method of the γ-H2AX assay was adopted to elucidate the significance of DSB in biodosimetry, cancer risk susceptibility, and normal tissue toxicity prediction. We validated the use of H2AX assay in early triage biodosimetry by using lymphocytes from cervical cancer patients exposed to radiotherapy. Further, the basal and residual damage was significantly higher in cancer individuals compared to the healthy individuals. In cancer patients undergoing radiotherapy, we could able to show the increase in normal tissue toxicity with decreased DSB repair capacity. In conclusion this study indicates the DSB estimation by γ-H2AX foci analysis can serve as a tool to understand the triage of radiation exposed individuals, identifying individuals at cancer risk and normal tissue toxicity

  15. Responding to climate risks in South Florida: New tools for adaptive water management collaboration between researchers and practitioners.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Treuer, G.

    2017-12-01

    South Florida's vulnerability to sea level rise has brought attention and research funding to the region. Scientists have demonstrated that existing flood control, water supply, and water quality challenges will be made more difficult by sea level rise. Investing in adaptation and efficiency can help reduce the region's exposure to climate change threats. However, local governments and agencies struggle to act. Suggestions for further collaboration between practitioners and researchers are presented, drawing from the results of research on homeowner risk perception, water supply management, and sea level rise adaptive stormwater investments in the Miami area. Choice Flow, an online platform for creating immersive simulations that track decision making and information gathering, was used to help 348 South Florida homeowners experience 35 years (18 inches) of sea level rise in 20 minutes. It found that there is a window of opportunity for local governments to act. Over 70% of homeowners were willing to support higher taxes to pay for adaptation investments now and in the future. And while most were not worried enough about sea level rise now they became increasingly willing to move out of the region as sea levels rose. Simulations like this could enable cities like Miami Beach pre-test new technologies and policies, e.g. new building standards or stormwater technology, which help reduce flood risk but often inspire opposition from stakeholders who perceive them as a threat. Additionally, academic researchers can collaborate with practitioners to understand how policy transitions, necessary for adaptive water management, occur over time and across jurisdictions. A data-narrative of the recent shift towards sustainable water supply in Miami-Dade County, developed in consultation with utility staff, is presented as an example. It provides a basis for comparison with other communities and a tool for entrepreneurial practitioners to advocate for conservation as a means of

  16. Preliminary Efficacy of Adapted Responsive Teaching for Infants at Risk of Autism Spectrum Disorder in a Community Sample

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grace T. Baranek

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This study examined the (a feasibility of enrolling 12-month-olds at risk of ASD from a community sample into a randomized controlled trial, (b subsequent utilization of community services, and (c potential of a novel parent-mediated intervention to improve outcomes. The First Year Inventory was used to screen and recruit 12-month-old infants at risk of ASD to compare the effects of 6–9 months of Adapted Responsive Teaching (ART versus referral to early intervention and monitoring (REIM. Eighteen families were followed for ~20 months. Assessments were conducted before randomization, after treatment, and at 6-month follow-up. Utilization of community services was highest for the REIM group. ART significantly outperformed REIM on parent-reported and observed measures of child receptive language with good linear model fit. Multiphase growth models had better fit for more variables, showing the greatest effects in the active treatment phase, where ART outperformed REIM on parental interactive style (less directive, child sensory responsiveness (less hyporesponsive, and adaptive behavior (increased communication and socialization. This study demonstrates the promise of a parent-mediated intervention for improving developmental outcomes for infants at risk of ASD in a community sample and highlights the utility of earlier identification for access to community services earlier than standard practice.

  17. Simulating the Adaptive Mechanisms to Reduce the Risks of Occurence of Threats to the Economic Security of Enterprise

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Glushchevsky Vyacheslav V.

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The article is concerned with addressing the topical problem of effectively countering real and potential threats to economic security of enterprises and reducing the risks of their occurrence. The article is aimed at simulating the adaptive mechanisms to counteract external influences on the marketing component of enterprise’s economic security and developing a system of measures for removing threats to price destabilization of its orders portfolio based on a modern economic-mathematical instrumentarium. The common causes of the threats occurrence related to the price policy of enterprise and the tactics of the contractual processes with the business partners have been explored. Hidden reserves for price maneuvering in concluding contracts with customers have been identified. An algorithmic model for an adaptive pricing task in terms of an assortment of industrial enterprise has been built. On the basis of this model, mechanisms have been developed to counteract the threats of occurrence and aggravation of a «price conflict» between the producing enterprise and the potential customers of its products, and to advise on how to remove the risks of their occurrence. Prospects for using the methodology together with the instrumentarium for economic-mathematical modeling in terms of tasks of the price risks management have been indicated.

  18. Fire Risk Assessment of Adaptive Re-Use of Historic Shop Houses for Sleeping Accommodations in Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mydin M.A.O.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Heritage buildings were generally constructed without regard for fire risks or the requirements for fire protection, as are obligatory in new constructions. When a heritage building undergoes a change to its original function, improvements to the building’s fire safety are necessary to meet the needs of possible increases in occupancy loads and to account for fire risks related to the new usage. This research focuses on fire safety risks, fire protection and safety systems as well as the rules and regulations that an adaptive reuse heritage shop house is bound to when transitioning to a sleeping accommodation, which, in this case, means becoming a hotel. In this research, six heritage shop houses were chosen as case studies. The objectives of this research were to evaluate current fire emergency plans as well as to identify and assess possible fire hazards created by adaptive reuse of heritage shop houses to sleeping accommodations in Penang through a series of observations and interviews. The results of the research show that most of the buildings were provided with inadequate fire safety systems.

  19. Perceptions of risk factors for diabetes among Norwegian-Pakistani women participating in a culturally adapted intervention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Råberg Kjøllesdal, Marte K; Hjellset, Victoria T; Bjørge, Benedikte; Holmboe-Ottesen, Gerd; Wandel, Margareta

    2011-06-01

    To explore perceptions of diabetes risk factors among Pakistani immigrant women, as part of their explanatory model of the disease, and the changes in these perceptions after a culturally adapted intervention. Intervention study, carried out in Oslo, Norway, comprising 198 women. At baseline, about 75% of the women perceived sugar to be a risk factor for diabetes, about 30% mentioned physical inactivity and stress and close to 20% mentioned overweight. Twelve per cent could not identify any risk factors. When asked about foods to include in a diet to prevent diabetes, vegetables were mentioned by 45%, while 33% did not know any foods to include. Among those attending ≥60% of the educational sessions, the proportions mentioning little physical activity (pfood to include was reduced to 10% (p=0.004). Except for little physical activity, similar changes in responses were not registered in the control group. There is a need for improved knowledge about diabetes prevention among Pakistani immigrant women, and a culturally adapted intervention may contribute to this.

  20. Security engineering: systems engineering of security through the adaptation and application of risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilliam, David P.; Feather, Martin S.

    2004-01-01

    Information Technology (IT) Security Risk Management is a critical task in the organization, which must protect its resources and data against the loss of confidentiality, integrity, and availability. As systems become more complex and diverse, and more vulnerabilities are discovered while attacks from intrusions and malicious content increase, it is becoming increasingly difficult to manage IT security. This paper describes an approach to address IT security risk through risk management and mitigation in both the institution and in the project life cycle.

  1. Executive functioning, concern about falling and quadriceps strength mediate the relationship between impaired gait adaptability and fall risk in older people.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caetano, Maria Joana D; Lord, Stephen R; Brodie, Matthew A; Schoene, Daniel; Pelicioni, Paulo H S; Sturnieks, Daina L; Menant, Jasmine C

    2018-01-01

    Reduced ability to adapt gait, particularly under challenging conditions, may be an important reason why older adults have an increased risk of falling. This study aimed to identify cognitive, psychological and physical mediators of the relationship between impaired gait adaptability and fall risk in older adults. Fifty healthy older adults (mean±SD: 74±7years) were categorised as high or low fall risk, based on past falls and their performance in the Physiological Profile Assessment. High and low-risk groups were then compared in the gait adaptability test, i.e. an assessment of the ability to adapt gait in response to obstacles and stepping targets under single and dual task conditions. Quadriceps strength, concern about falling and executive function were also measured. The older adults who made errors on the gait adaptability test were 4.76 (95%CI=1.08-20.91) times more likely to be at high risk of falling. Furthermore, each standard deviation reduction in gait speed while approaching the targets/obstacle increased the odds of being at high risk of falling approximately three fold: single task - OR=3.10,95%CI=1.43-6.73; dual task - 3.42,95%CI=1.56-7.52. Executive functioning, concern about falling and quadriceps strength substantially mediated the relationship between the gait adaptability measures and fall risk status. Impaired gait adaptability is associated with high risk of falls in older adults. Reduced executive function, increased concern about falling and weaker quadriceps strength contribute significantly to this relationship. Training gait adaptability directly, as well as addressing the above mediators through cognitive, behavioural and physical training may maximise fall prevention efficacy. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. The adaptation to climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Gameren, Valentine; Weikmans, Romain; Zaccai, Edwin

    2014-01-01

    The authors address the issue of adaptation to climate change. They first address the physical aspects related to this issue: scenarios of temperature evolution, main possible impacts. Then, they address the social impacts related to climate risks, and the adaptation strategies which aim at reducing the exposure and vulnerability of human societies, or at increasing their resilience. Some examples of losses of human lives and of economic damages due to recent catastrophes related to climate change are evoked. The authors address the international framework, the emergence of an international regime on climate, the quite recent emergence of adaptation within international negotiations in 2001, the emergence of the idea of a support to developing countries. National and local policies are presented in the next chapter (in the European Union, the Netherlands which are faced with the issue of sea level rise, programs in developing countries) and their limitations are also outlined. The next chapter addresses the adaptation actions performed by private actors (enterprises, households, associations, civil society, and so on) with example of vulnerability, and adaptation opportunities and possibilities in some specific sectors. The last chapter presents a typology of actions of adaptation, indicators of adaptation to climate change, and examples of mistaken adaptation

  3. Varying geospatial analyses to assess climate risk and adaptive capacity in a hotter, drier Southwestern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elias, E.; Reyes, J. J.; Steele, C. M.; Rango, A.

    2017-12-01

    perspectives. In addition, we found that spatial analysis supports informed adaptation, within and outside the SW United States. The persistence and adaptive capacity of agriculture in the water-limited Southwest serves as an instructive example and may offer solutions to reduce future climate risk.

  4. The Integration of the Adaptation Approach into EU and Dutch Legislation on Flood Risk Management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gilissen, Herman Kasper

    2015-01-01

    Climate change, worldwide, gives rise to multifarious issues concerning water management. This will lead to both an increase of flood risks and risks related to drought and water scarcity, mostly as a result of sea level rise, increasing river discharges and heavy rainfall, respectively longer, more

  5. Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms in Noncoding Regions of Rad51C Do Not Change the Risk of Unselected Breast Cancer but They Modulate the Level of Oxidative Stress and the DNA Damage Characteristics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gresner, Peter; Gromadzinska, Jolanta; Jablonska, Ewa

    2014-01-01

    affect the unselected BrC risk. Contrary to this, carriers of rs12946522, rs16943176, rs12946397 and rs17222691 rare-alleles were found to present significantly increased level of blood plasma TBARS compared to respective wild-type homozygotes (p... decreased fraction of oxidatively generated DNA damage (34% of total damaged DNA) in favor of DNA strand breakage, with no effect on total DNA damage, unlike respective wild-types, among which more evenly distributed proportions between oxidatively damaged DNA (48% of total DNA damage) and DNA strand...

  6. The SAFRR tsunami scenario-physical damage in California: Chapter E in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porter, Keith; Byers, William; Dykstra, David; Lim, Amy; Lynett, Patrick; Ratliff, Jaime; Scawthorn, Charles; Wein, Anne; Wilson, Rick

    2013-01-01

    his chapter attempts to depict a single realistic outcome of the SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) tsunami scenario in terms of physical damage to and recovery of various aspects of the built environment in California. As described elsewhere in this report, the tsunami is generated by a hypothetical magnitude 9.1 earthquake seaward of the Alaska Peninsula on the Semidi Sector of the Alaska–Aleutian Subduction Zone, 495 miles southwest of Anchorage, at 11:50 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (PDT) on Thursday March 27, 2014, and arriving at the California coast between 4:00 and 5:40 p.m. (depending on location) the same day. Although other tsunamis could have locally greater impact, this source represents a substantial threat to the state as a whole. One purpose of this chapter is to help operators and users of coastal assets throughout California to develop emergency plans to respond to a real tsunami. Another is to identify ways that operators or owners of these assets can think through options for reducing damage before a future tsunami. A third is to inform the economic analyses for the SAFRR tsunami scenario. And a fourth is to identify research needs to better understand the possible consequences of a tsunami on these assets. The asset classes considered here include the following: Piers, cargo, buildings, and other assets at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach Large vessels in the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach Marinas and small craft Coastal buildings Roads and roadway bridges Rail, railway bridges, and rolling stock Agriculture Fire following tsunami Each asset class is examined in a subsection of this chapter. In each subsection, we generally attempt to offer a historical review of damage. We characterize and quantify the assets exposed to loss and describe the modes of damage that have been observed in past tsunamis or are otherwise deemed likely to occur in the SAFRR tsunami scenario. Where practical, we offer a mathematical model of the

  7. Lessons in Adaptability and Preparing for Black Swan Risks from the Military and Hedge Funds

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-06-01

    Taleb argues that “Redundancy equals insurance . . . . The exact opposite of redundancy is naïve optimization. . . . An economist would find it...local level. In his book Confessions of a Civil Servant, Stone explains why and how he “fought to decentralize and deregulate the bureaucracy to free...adapt without threatening the overall success of the endeavor. In fact if adequately supported, they are the ones most apt to insure success

  8. Results of physiological adaptation assessmtn and health risks for labor migrants from Tajikistan

    OpenAIRE

    M. Khodzhiev; N.F. Izmerov; I.V. Bukhtiyarov

    2017-01-01

    The paper focuses on the results of physiological research performed on 9 occupational groups of migrants who came to Moscow region of Russia from southern Central Asia republics. We studied adaptation processes characteristics in labor migrants as per cardiovascular system parameters and neuromuscular apparatus parameters. We revealed peculiarities in heart rate variability (changes in stress index S1, values of AMo, VLF spectrum power, PARS parameter) in migrants de-pending on neuro-emotion...

  9. Changes in subclinical organ damage vs. in Framingham risk score for assessing cardiovascular risk reduction during continued antihypertensive treatment: a LIFE substudy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Michael H; Wachtell, Kristian; Ibsen, Hans

    2011-01-01

    To investigate whether in-treatment measurements of subclinical organ damage (SOD) assessed by elevated urine albumin/creatinine ratio (UACR) or electrocardiographic left ventricular hypertrophy improved the prediction of the composite cardiovascular endpoint of cardiovascular death, nonfatal...

  10. Increased peripheral vascular disease risk progressively constrains perfusion adaptability in the skeletal muscle microcirculation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butcher, Joshua T.; Frisbee, Stephanie J.; Olfert, I. Mark; Chantler, Paul D.; Tabone, Lawrence E.; d'Audiffret, Alexandre C.; Shrader, Carl D.; Goodwill, Adam G.; Stapleton, Phoebe A.; Brooks, Steven D.; Brock, Robert W.; Lombard, Julian H.

    2015-01-01

    To determine the impact of progressive elevations in peripheral vascular disease (PVD) risk on microvascular function, we utilized eight rat models spanning “healthy” to “high PVD risk” and used a multiscale approach to interrogate microvascular function and outcomes: healthy: Sprague-Dawley rats (SDR) and lean Zucker rats (LZR); mild risk: SDR on high-salt diet (HSD) and SDR on high-fructose diet (HFD); moderate risk: reduced renal mass-hypertensive rats (RRM) and spontaneously hypertensive rats (SHR); high risk: obese Zucker rats (OZR) and Dahl salt-sensitive rats (DSS). Vascular reactivity and biochemical analyses demonstrated that even mild elevations in PVD risk severely attenuated nitric oxide (NO) bioavailability and caused progressive shifts in arachidonic acid metabolism, increasing thromboxane A2 levels. With the introduction of hypertension, arteriolar myogenic activation and adrenergic constriction were increased. However, while functional hyperemia and fatigue resistance of in situ skeletal muscle were not impacted with mild or moderate PVD risk, blood oxygen handling suggested an increasingly heterogeneous perfusion within resting and contracting skeletal muscle. Analysis of in situ networks demonstrated an increasingly stable and heterogeneous distribution of perfusion at arteriolar bifurcations with elevated PVD risk, a phenomenon that was manifested first in the distal microcirculation and evolved proximally with increasing risk. The increased perfusion distribution heterogeneity and loss of flexibility throughout the microvascular network, the result of the combined effects on NO bioavailability, arachidonic acid metabolism, myogenic activation, and adrenergic constriction, may represent the most accurate predictor of the skeletal muscle microvasculopathy and poor health outcomes associated with chronic elevations in PVD risk. PMID:26702145

  11. Risk and efficacy of human-enabled interspecific hybridization for climate-change adaptation: Response to Hamilton and Miller (2016)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kovach, Ryan P.; Luikart, Gordon; Lowe, Winsor H.; Boyer, Matthew C.; Muhlfeld, Clint C.

    2016-01-01

    Hamilton and Miller (2016) provide an interesting and provocative discussion of how hybridization and introgression can promote evolutionary potential in the face of climate change. They argue that hybridization—mating between individuals from genetically distinct populations—can alleviate inbreeding depression and promote adaptive introgression and evolutionary rescue. We agree that deliberate intraspecific hybridization (mating between individuals of the same species) is an underused management tool for increasing fitness in inbred populations (i.e., genetic rescue; Frankham 2015; Whiteley et al. 2015). The potential risks and benefits of assisted gene flow have been discussed in the literature, and an emerging consensus suggests that mating between populations isolated for approximately 50–100 generations can benefit fitness, often with a minor risk of outbreeding depression (Frankham et al. 2011; Aitken & Whitlock 2013; Allendorf et al. 2013).

  12. Multidsciplinary Approaches to Coastal Adaptation - Aplying Machine Learning Techniques to assess coastal risk in Latin America and The Caribbean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calil, J.

    2016-12-01

    The global population, currently at 7.3 billion, is increasing by nearly 230,000 people every day. As the world's population grows to an estimated 11.2 billion by 2100, the number of people living in low elevation areas, exposed to coastal hazards, is continuing to increase. In 2013, 22 million people were displaced by extreme weather events, with 37 events displacing at least 100,000 people each. Losses from natural disasters and disaster risk are determined by a complex interaction between physical hazards and the vulnerability of a society or social-ecological system, and its exposure to such hazards. Impacts from coastal hazards depend on the number of people, value of assets, and presence of critical resources in harm's way. Moreover, coastal risks are amplified by challenging socioeconomic dynamics, including ill-advised urban development, income inequality, and poverty level. Our results demonstrate that in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), more than half a million people live in areas where coastal hazards, exposure (of people, assets and ecosystems), and poverty converge, creating the ideal conditions for a perfect storm. In order to identify the population at greatest risk to coastal hazards in LAC, and in response to a growing demand for multidisciplinary coastal adaptation approaches, this study employs a combination of machine learning clustering techniques (K-Means and Self Organizing Maps), and a spatial index, to assess coastal risks on a comparative scale. Data for more than 13,000 coastal locations in LAC were collected and allocated into three categories: (1) Coastal Hazards (including storm surge, wave energy and El Niño); (2) Geographic Exposure (including population, agriculture, and ecosystems); and (3) Vulnerability (including income inequality, infant mortality rate and malnutrition). This study identified hotspots of coastal vulnerability, the key drivers of coastal risk at each geographic location. Our results provide important

  13. Impact of head and neck cancer adaptive radiotherapy to spare the parotid glands and decrease the risk of xerostomia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Castelli, Joel; Simon, Antoine; Louvel, Guillaume; Henry, Olivier; Chajon, Enrique; Nassef, Mohamed; Haigron, Pascal; Cazoulat, Guillaume; Ospina, Juan David; Jegoux, Franck; Benezery, Karen; Crevoisier, Renaud de

    2015-01-01

    Large anatomical variations occur during the course of intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) for locally advanced head and neck cancer (LAHNC). The risks are therefore a parotid glands (PG) overdose and a xerostomia increase. The purposes of the study were to estimate: - the PG overdose and the xerostomia risk increase during a “standard” IMRT (IMRT std ); - the benefits of an adaptive IMRT (ART) with weekly replanning to spare the PGs and limit the risk of xerostomia. Fifteen patients received radical IMRT (70 Gy) for LAHNC. Weekly CTs were used to estimate the dose distributions delivered during the treatment, corresponding either to the initial planning (IMRT std ) or to weekly replanning (ART). PGs dose were recalculated at the fraction, from the weekly CTs. PG cumulated doses were then estimated using deformable image registration. The following PG doses were compared: pre-treatment planned dose, per-treatment IMRT std and ART. The corresponding estimated risks of xerostomia were also compared. Correlations between anatomical markers and dose differences were searched. Compared to the initial planning, a PG overdose was observed during IMRT std for 59% of the PGs, with an average increase of 3.7 Gy (10.0 Gy maximum) for the mean dose, and of 8.2% (23.9% maximum) for the risk of xerostomia. Compared to the initial planning, weekly replanning reduced the PG mean dose for all the patients (p < 0.05). In the overirradiated PG group, weekly replanning reduced the mean dose by 5.1 Gy (12.2 Gy maximum) and the absolute risk of xerostomia by 11% (p < 0.01) (30% maximum). The PG overdose and the dosimetric benefit of replanning increased with the tumor shrinkage and the neck thickness reduction (p < 0.001). During the course of LAHNC IMRT, around 60% of the PGs are overdosed of 4 Gy. Weekly replanning decreased the PG mean dose by 5 Gy, and therefore by 11% the xerostomia risk

  14. Using the adaptive cycle in climate-risk insurance to design resilient futures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cremades, R.; Surminski, S.; Máñez Costa, M.; Hudson, P.; Shrivastava, P.; Gascoigne, J.

    2018-01-01

    Assessing the dynamics of resilience could help insurers and governments reduce the costs of climate-risk insurance schemes and secure future insurability in the face of an increase in extreme hydro-meteorological events related to climate change.

  15. Linking predator risk and uncertainty to adaptive forgetting: a theoretical framework and empirical test using tadpoles

    OpenAIRE

    Ferrari, Maud C. O.; Brown, Grant E.; Bortolotti, Gary R.; Chivers, Douglas P.

    2010-01-01

    Hundreds of studies have examined how prey animals assess their risk of predation. These studies work from the basic tennet that prey need to continually balance the conflicting demands of predator avoidance with activities such as foraging and reproduction. The information that animals gain regarding local predation risk is most often learned. Yet, the concept of ‘memory’ in the context of predation remains virtually unexplored. Here, our goal was (i) to determine if the memory window associ...

  16. Risk assessment of nanomaterials and nanoproducts – adaptation of traditional approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jahnel, J; Fleischer, T; Seitz, S B

    2013-01-01

    Different approaches have been adopted for assessing the potential risks of conventional chemicals and products for human health. In general, the traditional paradigm is a toxicological-driven chemical-by-chemical approach, focusing on single toxic endpoints. Scope and responsibilities for the development and implementation of a risk assessment concept vary across sectors and areas and depends on the specific regulatory environment and the specific protection goals. Thus, risk assessment implication is a complex task based not only on science based knowledge but also on the regulatory context involving different parties and stakeholders. Questions have been raised whether standard paradigms for conventional chemicals would be applicable and adequate for new materials, products and applications of nanotechnology. Most scientists and stakeholders assume that current standard methods are in principle applicable to nanomaterials, but specific aspects require further development. The paper presents additional technical improvements like the complementary use of the life cycle methodology and the support of risk-based classification systems. But also aspects improving the utility of risk assessment with regard to societal impacts on risk governance are discussed.

  17. Cross-cultural adaptation of the "Australian National University Alzheimer's Disease Risk Index" for the Brazilian population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borges, Marcus Kiiti; Jacinto, Alessandro Ferrari; Citero, Vanessa de Albuquerque

    2017-01-01

    Alzheimer's disease (AD) represents a major public health problem and it is therefore crucial that modifiable risk factors be known prior to onset of dementia in late-life. The "Australian National University - Alzheimer's Disease Risk Index" (ANU-ADRI) is one of the potential tools for primary prevention of the disease. The aim of this study was to devise an adapted version of the ANU-ADRI for use in Brazil. The instrument was translated from its original language of English into Portuguese and then back-translated into English by bilingual translators. It was subsequently reviewed and evaluated as to the degree of translation issues and equivalence. In this study, the ANU-ADRI was applied using individual (face-to-face) interviews in a public hospital, unlike the original version which is applied online by self-report. The final version (pretest) was evaluated in a sample of 10 participants with a mean age of 60 years (±11.46) and mean education of 11 years (±6.32). The intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) (inter-rater) was 0.954 (P<0.001 for a confidence interval (CI) of 95%=[0.932; 0.969]). Cultural equivalence was performed without the need for a second instrument application step. After cross-cultural adaptation, the language of the resultant questionnaire was deemed easily understandable by the Brazilian population.

  18. Cross-cultural adaptation of the "Australian National University Alzheimer's Disease Risk Index" for the Brazilian population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcus Kiiti Borges

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Alzheimer's disease (AD represents a major public health problem and it is therefore crucial that modifiable risk factors be known prior to onset of dementia in late-life. The "Australian National University - Alzheimer's Disease Risk Index" (ANU-ADRI is one of the potential tools for primary prevention of the disease. Objective: The aim of this study was to devise an adapted version of the ANU-ADRI for use in Brazil. Methods: The instrument was translated from its original language of English into Portuguese and then back-translated into English by bilingual translators. It was subsequently reviewed and evaluated as to the degree of translation issues and equivalence. In this study, the ANU-ADRI was applied using individual (face-to-face interviews in a public hospital, unlike the original version which is applied online by self-report. The final version (pretest was evaluated in a sample of 10 participants with a mean age of 60 years (±11.46 and mean education of 11 years (±6.32. Results: The intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC (inter-rater was 0.954 (P<0.001 for a confidence interval (CI of 95%=[0.932; 0.969]. Cultural equivalence was performed without the need for a second instrument application step. Conclusion: After cross-cultural adaptation, the language of the resultant questionnaire was deemed easily understandable by the Brazilian population.

  19. Adaptation, translation and reliability of the Australian 'Juniors Enjoying Cricket Safely' injury risk perception questionnaire for Sri Lanka.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gamage, Prasanna J; Fortington, Lauren V; Finch, Caroline F

    2018-01-01

    Cricket is a very popular sport in Sri Lanka. In this setting there has been limited research; specifically, there is little knowledge of cricket injuries. To support future research possibilities, the aim of this study was to cross-culturally adapt, translate and test the reliability of an Australian-developed questionnaire for the Sri Lankan context. The Australian 'Juniors Enjoying Cricket Safely' (JECS-Aus) injury risk perception questionnaire was cross-culturally adapted to suit the Sri Lankan context and subsequently translated into the two main languages (Sinhala and Tamil) based on standard forward-back translation. The translated questionnaires were examined for content validity by two language schoolteachers. The questionnaires were completed twice, 2 weeks apart, by two groups of school cricketers (males) aged 11-15 years (Sinhala (n=24), Tamil (n=30)) to assess reliability. Test-retest scores were evaluated for agreement. Where responses were statistics were calculated. Questions with moderate-to-poor test-retest reliability (κAus questionnaire for use in a different population, providing an outcome measure for assessing injury risk perceptions in Sri Lankan junior cricketers.

  20. Local adaptive capacity as an alternative approach in dealing with hydrometeorological risk at Depok Peri-Urban City

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fitrinitia, I. S.; Junadi, P.; Sutanto, E.; Nugroho, D. A.; Zubair, A.; Suyanti, E.

    2018-03-01

    Located in a tropical area, cities in Indonesia are vulnerable to hydrometeorological risks such as flood and landslide and thus become prone to the climate change effects. Moreover, peri-urban cities had double burden as the consequences of main city spill over and also lack of urban facilities in overcoming the disaster. In another perspective, the city has many alternative resources to recover, so its create urban resiliency. Depok city becomes a case study of this research regarding with its development following the impact of Jakarta growth. This research purposes to capture how the local city dwellers could anticipate and adaptive with flood and landslide with their own mitigation version. Through mix method and spatial analysis using GIS techniques, it derives the two comparison approach, the normative and alternative that had been done by the city dwellers. It uses a spatial analysis to have a big picture of Depok and its environmental changing. It also divided into 4 local group of communities as a representative of city dwellers regarding the characteristic of a settlement with their level of risk. The result found type or characteristic of settlement which influenced the local adaptive capacity, from the establishment of infrastructure, health fulfillment and social livelihood with different kind of methods.

  1. Impacts Of Climate Change On Ecosystems Management In Africa: An Assessment Of Disaster Risk Management And Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ndebele-Murisa, M. R.

    2015-12-01

    This paper is a synthesis of eight studies which demonstrate the interface between disaster risk management (DRM) and adaptation. The studies; conducted from November 2011 to July 2012 included diverse ecosystems from forests, coastlines, rural areas to a lake region and showed that climate change/variability are major factors among other factors such as deforestation and land degradation, unsustainable land use practices, overharvesting of natural products and invasive species encroachment that are causing changes in ecosystems. The most common extreme events reported included shifts in and shorter rainfall seasons, extended droughts, increased temperatures, extreme heat, heavy rainfall, flooding, inundation, strong winds and sea level rises. As a result of these climate phenomena, adverse impacts on ecosystems and communities were reported as biodiversity loss, reduced fish catch, reduced water for forests/agriculture/consumption, increased rough waves, coastal erosion/sediment deposition and lastly land/mud slides in order of commonality. In response to these impacts communities are practicing coping and adaptation strategies but there is a huge gap between proper DRM and adaptation. This is mainly because the adaptation is practiced as an aftermath with very little effort propelled towards proactive DRM or preparedness. In addition, national level policies are archaic and do not address the current environmental changes. This was demonstrated in Togo where wood energy potential is deteriorating at an unprecedented rate but is projected to increase between 6.4% and 101% in the near and far future if the national forest action plans are implemented; preventing an energy crisis in the country. This shows that appropriate legal and policy frameworks and well planned responses to projected extreme events and climate changes are crucial in order to prevent disasters and to achieve sustainable utilisation of resources in the continent.

  2. Capacity to adapt to environmental change: evidence from a network of organizations concerned with increasing wildfire risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Paige. Fischer

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Because wildfire size and frequency are expected to increase in many forested areas in the United States, organizations involved in forest and wildfire management could arguably benefit from working together and sharing information to develop strategies for how to adapt to this increasing risk. Social capital theory suggests that actors in cohesive networks are positioned to build trust and mutual understanding of problems and act collectively to address these problems, and that actors engaged with diverse partners are positioned to access new information and resources that are important for innovation and complex problem solving. We investigated the patterns of interaction within a network of organizations involved in forest and wildfire management in Oregon, USA, for evidence of structural conditions that create opportunities for collective action and learning. We used descriptive statistical analysis of social network data gathered through interviews to characterize the structure of the network and exponential random graph modeling to identify key factors in the formation of network ties. We interpreted our findings through the lens of social capital theory to identify implications for the network's capacity to engage in collective action and complex problem-solving about how to adapt to environmental change. We found that tendencies to associate with others with similar management goals, geographic emphases, and attitudes toward wildfire were strong mechanisms shaping network structure, potentially constraining interactions among organizations with diverse information and resources and limiting opportunities for learning and complex problem-solving needed for adaptation. In particular, we found that organizations with fire protection and forest restoration goals comprised distinct networks despite sharing concern about the problem of increasing wildfire risk.

  3. Assessment of cardiovascular risk and target organ damage among adult patients with primary hypertension in Thika Level 5 Hospital, Kenya: a criteria-based clinical audit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mwita, Clifford Chacha; Akello, Walter; Sisenda, Gloria; Ogoti, Evans; Tivey, David; Munn, Zachary; Mbogo, David

    2013-06-01

    Appropriate management of hypertension reduces the risk of death from stroke and cardiac disease and includes routine assessment for target organ damage and estimation of cardiovascular risk. However, implementation of evidence-based hypertension management guidelines is unsatisfactory. We explore the use of audit and feedback as a quality improvement (QI) strategy for reducing the knowledge practice gap in hypertension care in a resource poor setting. The aim of this study is to determine the level of compliance to evidence-based guidelines on assessment of cardiovascular risk and target organ damage among patients with hypertension in Thika Level 5 Hospital in central Kenya and to implement best practice with regard to evidence utilisation among clinicians in the hospital. A retrospective clinical audit done in three phases spread over 5 months. Phase one involved identifying five audit criteria on assessment of cardiovascular risk and target organ damage in patients with hypertension and conducting a baseline audit in which compliance to audit criteria, blood pressure control and drug prescription practices were assessed. Phase two involved identifying barriers to compliance to audit criteria and strategies to overcoming these barriers. The third phase was a follow-up audit. There was no use of a cardiovascular risk assessment tool in both audits (0% vs. 0%; P = 1.00). Testing urine for haematuria and proteinuria reduced from 13% to 8% (P = 0.230) while taking a blood sample for measuring blood glucose, electrolytes and creatinine levels improved from 11% to 17% (P = 0.401). Performance of fundoscopy and electrocardiography remained unchanged at 2% and 8%, respectively (P = 0.886 and P = 0.898). High patient load was identified as the biggest barrier to implementation of best practice. Blood pressure control improved from 33% to 70% (P ≤ 0.001), whereas the proportion of patients on two or more recommended antihypertensive drugs rose

  4. Psychometric Adaptation of the Beck Hopelessness Scale as a Self-Rated Suicide Risk Screening Instrument Among Nigerian University Students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aloba, Olutayo; Awe, Oluwatosin; Adelola, Aderopo; Olatunji, Philemon; Aloba, Tolulope

    2018-03-01

    Globally, suicide is the most important cause of mortality among adolescents and young adults. The factor that correlates most significantly with suicide is hopelessness. The aim is to explore the psychometric adaptation of the Beck Hopelessness Scale (BHS) as a suicide risk evaluation tool among Nigerian university students. A total of 554 Nigerian students completed the BHS and the Depression Anxiety Stress Scale (DASS). Suicide risk level among them was determined by interviewing them with the Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview Suicidality module. Cronbach's alpha for the 16-item BHS was 0.87. It exhibited satisfactory concurrent validity with the Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview (MINI) Suicidality module and the subscales of the DASS among the students. The 2-factor model of the BHS-16 exhibited satisfactory indices of fitness (goodness of fit index = 0.930; parsimonious goodness of fit index = 0.601; comparative fit index = 0.934; incremental fit index = 0.936; Tucker-Lewis index = 0.910; root mean square error of approximation = 0.059; χ 2 / df = 1.9). Receiver operating characteristics curve indicated that the best cutoff score for those categorized as high suicide risk was 7 (sensitivity 0.700, specificity 0.908, AUC = 0.897). The BHS has satisfactory psychometric properties as a suicide risk screening tool among Nigerian university students.

  5. Neuronal damage biomarkers in the identification of patients at risk of long-term postoperative cognitive dysfunction after cardiac surgery

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kok, W F; Koerts, Janneke; Tucha, O; Scheeren, T W L; Absalom, A R

    Biomarkers of neurological injury can potentially predict postoperative cognitive dysfunction. We aimed to identify whether classical neuronal damage-specific biomarkers, including brain fatty acid-binding protein, neuron-specific enolase and S100 calcium-binding protein β, as well as plasma-free

  6. A proposed method to assess the damage risk of future climate change to museum objects in historic buildings

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huijbregts, Z.; Kramer, R.P.; Martens, M.H.J.; Schijndel, van A.W.M.; Schellen, H.L.

    2012-01-01

    Future climate change is expected to have a critical effect on valuable museum collections that are housed in historic buildings. Changes of the indoor environment in the building affect the microclimate around the museum objects and may cause damage to the collection. In this study, a method is

  7. Adaptation and validation of a questionnaire about risk behaviors for AIDS among drug users

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pechansky Flavio

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: To initiate the process of validation of an instrument based on an American self-reported questionnaire named RAB (Risk Assessment Battery -- called CRA in its Brazilian version --, which covers aspects related to drug use, HIV testing, sexual behavior and concern with the transmission of the virus. The questionnaire was back-translated and its concurrent validity was tested, as well as the utility of an Overall Risk Score (ORS for the transmission of the HIV virus or of subscores for Drug Use (SDU or Sexual Risk (SSR. Methods: Case vignettes of ten typical cases had their questionnaire scores compared with the impression of independent referees. Results: There were systematic differences in the comparison with the specific referees for each area, suggesting that only the ORS has clinical validity, specifically regarding the exposure to risk of infection/reinfection by HIV. Conclusion: The questionnaire in its current use and format is not adequate to express impairment already caused by exposure to the virus. The specific subscores were not clinically valid to express such risk, and the instrument needs the addition of a more comprehensive section about intravenous drug use to be used in future studies.

  8. Risk-adapted treatment and follow-up management in childhood-onset craniopharyngioma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Müller, Hermann L

    2016-05-01

    Craniopharyngiomas are rare embryonic malformations of the sellar/parasellar region with low histological grade. Here, we review findings on the diagnosis, treatment, clinical course, follow-up, and prognosis of craniopharyngioma patients. Clinical manifestations develop from increased intracranial pressure, anterior visual pathway damage, and hypothalamic/pituitary deficiencies. If the tumor is favorably localized (no anatomical involvement with the hypothalamic and optical structures) therapy of choice is complete resection, meticulously performed to preserve hypothalamic and optic functions. In patients with unfavorable tumor involvement, optimal therapy is limited hypothalamus-sparing surgical strategy, followed by judicious irradiation dosage to minimize recurrences and progression. Surgical lesions and/or anatomical involvement of posterior hypothalamic areas result in serious sequelae, mainly hypothalamic syndrome. Craniopharyngioma is a chronic disease and must be managed as such, providing ongoing care of pediatric and adult patients by experienced multidisciplinary teams in the context of multicenter trials.

  9. Probabilistic flood damage modelling at the meso-scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kreibich, Heidi; Botto, Anna; Schröter, Kai; Merz, Bruno

    2014-05-01

    Decisions on flood risk management and adaptation are usually based on risk analyses. Such analyses are associated with significant uncertainty, even more if changes in risk due to global change are expected. Although uncertainty analysis and probabilistic approaches have received increased attention during the last years, they are still not standard practice for flood risk assessments. Most damage models have in common that complex damaging processes are described by simple, deterministic approaches like stage-damage functions. Novel probabilistic, multi-variate flood damage models have been developed and validated on the micro-scale using a data-mining approach, namely bagging decision trees (Merz et al. 2013). In this presentation we show how the model BT-FLEMO (Bagging decision Tree based Flood Loss Estimation MOdel) can be applied on the meso-scale, namely on the basis of ATKIS land-use units. The model is applied in 19 municipalities which were affected during the 2002 flood by the River Mulde in Saxony, Germany. The application of BT-FLEMO provides a probability distribution of estimated damage to residential buildings per municipality. Validation is undertaken on the one hand via a comparison with eight other damage models including stage-damage functions as well as multi-variate models. On the other hand the results are compared with official damage data provided by the Saxon Relief Bank (SAB). The results show, that uncertainties of damage estimation remain high. Thus, the significant advantage of this probabilistic flood loss estimation model BT-FLEMO is that it inherently provides quantitative information about the uncertainty of the prediction. Reference: Merz, B.; Kreibich, H.; Lall, U. (2013): Multi-variate flood damage assessment: a tree-based data-mining approach. NHESS, 13(1), 53-64.

  10. An adaptive spatio-temporal smoothing model for estimating trends and step changes in disease risk

    OpenAIRE

    Rushworth, Alastair; Lee, Duncan; Sarran, Christophe

    2014-01-01

    Statistical models used to estimate the spatio-temporal pattern in disease\\ud risk from areal unit data represent the risk surface for each time period with known\\ud covariates and a set of spatially smooth random effects. The latter act as a proxy\\ud for unmeasured spatial confounding, whose spatial structure is often characterised by\\ud a spatially smooth evolution between some pairs of adjacent areal units while other\\ud pairs exhibit large step changes. This spatial heterogeneity is not c...

  11. Spatial distribution of damages from winter 2014 coastal storms in the northern coast of Spain: hazard, vulnerability and elements at risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carolina Garmendia Pedraja

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available The succession of storms events that hit the Galician-Cantabrian coast during the winter of 2014 caused considerable damages, in both the natural environment and the infrastructures and equipment, whose restoration was worth around 70 million € . Taking in mind the sensibility of beaches to erosion, these types of environments focused much of the analysis. The results show that the spatial distribution of those damages keep a closer relationship with the greater appreciation of these spaces by the population rather than the magnitude of the natural phenomenon or the geomorphological background. That idea confirms that the consequences of the extreme climatic events do not depend exclusively on the process hazardousness but also on the vulnerability (natural and social of the geographical area affected and the quantity and value of the elements at risk.

  12. The framing of two major flood episodes in the Irish print news media: Implications for societal adaptation to living with flood risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devitt, Catherine; O'Neill, Eoin

    2017-10-01

    Societal adaptation to flooding is a critical component of contemporary flood policy. Using content analysis, this article identifies how two major flooding episodes (2009 and 2014) are framed in the Irish broadsheet news media. The article considers the extent to which these frames reflect shifts in contemporary flood policy away from protection towards risk management, and the possible implications for adaptation to living with flood risk. Frames help us make sense of the social world, and within the media, framing is an essential tool for communication. Five frames were identified: flood resistance and structural defences, politicisation of flood risk, citizen as risk manager, citizen as victim and emerging trade-offs. These frames suggest that public debates on flood management do not fully reflect shifts in contemporary flood policy, with negative implications for the direction of societal adaptation. Greater discussion is required on the influence of the media on achieving policy objectives.

  13. Outcomes of Risk-Adapted Fractionated Stereotactic Radiotherapy for Stage I Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lagerwaard, Frank J.; Haasbeek, Cornelis J.A.; Smit, Egbert F.; Slotman, Ben J.; Senan, S.

    2008-01-01

    Purpose: High local control rates can be achieved using stereotactic radiotherapy in Stage I non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC), but reports have suggested that toxicity may be of concern. We evaluated early clinical outcomes of 'risk-adapted' fractionation schemes in patients treated in a single institution. Methods and Materials: Of 206 patients with Stage I NSCLC, 81% were unfit to undergo surgery and the rest refused surgery. Pathologic confirmation of malignancy was obtained in 31% of patients. All other patients had new or growing 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography positive lesions with radiologic characteristics of malignancy. Planning four-dimensional computed tomography scans were performed and fractionation schemes used (3 x 20 Gy, 5 x 12 Gy, and 8 x 7.5 Gy) were determined by T stage and risk of normal tissue toxicity. Results: Median overall survival was 34 months, with 1- and 2-year survivals of 81% and 64%, respectively. Disease-free survival (DFS) at 1 and 2 years was 83% and 68%, respectively, and DFS correlated with T stage (p = 0.002). Local failure was observed in 7 patients (3%). The crude regional failure rate was 9%; isolated regional recurrence was observed in 4%. The distant progression-free survival at 1 and 2 years was 85% and 77%, respectively. SRT was well tolerated and severe late toxicity was observed in less than 3% of patients. Conclusions: SRT is well tolerated in patients with extensive comorbidity with high local control rates and minimal toxicity. Early outcomes are not inferior to those reported for conventional radiotherapy. In view of patient convenience, such risk-adapted SRT schedules should be considered treatment of choice in patients presenting with medically inoperable Stage I NSCLC

  14. Information Processing and Risk Perception: An Adaptation of the Heuristic-Systematic Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trumbo, Craig W.

    2002-01-01

    Describes heuristic-systematic information-processing model and risk perception--the two major conceptual areas of the analysis. Discusses the proposed model, describing the context of the data collections (public health communication involving cancer epidemiology) and providing the results of a set of three replications using the proposed model.…

  15. Economic analysis of adaptive strategies for flood risk management under climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pol, van der T.D.; Ierland, van E.C.; Gabbert, S.G.M.

    2017-01-01

    Climate change requires reconsideration of flood risk management strategies. Cost-benefit analysis (CBA), an economic decision-support tool, has been widely applied to assess these strategies. This paper aims to describe and discuss probabilistic extensions of CBA to identify welfare-maximising

  16. Risk-Adapted Management of Acute Pulmonary Embolism: Recent Evidence, New Guidelines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anja Käberich

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Venous thromboembolism (VTE, the third most frequent acute cardiovascular syndrome, may cause life-threatening complications and imposes a substantial socio-economic burden. During the past years, several landmark trials paved the way towards novel strategies in acute and long-term management of patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE. Risk stratification is increasingly recognized as a cornerstone for an adequate diagnostic and therapeutic management of the highly heterogeneous population of patients with acute PE. Recently published European Guidelines emphasize the importance of clinical prediction rules in combination with imaging procedures (assessment of right ventricular function and laboratory biomarkers (indicative of myocardial stress or injury for identification of normotensive PE patients at intermediate risk for an adverse short-term outcome. In this patient group, systemic full-dose thrombolysis was associated with a significantly increased risk of intracranial bleeding, a complication which discourages its clinical application unless hemodynamic decompensation occurs. A large-scale clinical trial program evaluating new oral anticoagulants in the initial and long-term treatment of venous thromboembolism showed at least comparable efficacy and presumably increased safety of these drugs compared to the current standard treatment. Research is continuing on catheter-directed, ultrasound-assisted, local, low-dose thrombolysis in the management of intermediate-risk PE.

  17. Farmers’ Perspectives on Risk and Adaptation Strategies in the Mekong, Cambodia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ly, Kesa; Fraiture, de C.M.S.

    2016-01-01

    Aims: In Cambodia the frequency and impacts of natural disasters has been increasing. The impacts of droughts and floods are most severe within the agricultural sector which accounts for around 29% of Cambodia’s GDP and 59% of the work force. In this paper we assess the farmers’ perspectives on risk

  18. BYSTANDER EFFECTS, GENOMIC INSTABILITY, ADAPTIVE RESPONSE AND CANCER RISK ASSESSMENT FOR RADIATION AND CHEMICAL EXPOSURES

    Science.gov (United States)

    There is an increased interest in utilizing mechanistic data in support of the cancer risk assessment process for ionizing radiation and environmental chemical exposures. In this regard the use of biologically based dose-response models is particularly advocated. The aim is to pr...

  19. Ready for the Storm: Education for Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kagawa, Fumiyo; Selby, David

    2012-01-01

    Incidences of disaster and climate change impacts are rising globally. Disaster risk reduction and climate change education are two educational responses to present and anticipated increases in the severity and frequency of hazards. They share significant complementarities and potential synergies, the latter as yet largely unexploited. Three…

  20. Adapting social impact assessment to address a project's human rights impacts and risks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Esteves, Ana Maria; Factor, Gabriela; Vanclay, Frank; Gotzmann, Nora; Moreira, Sergio

    2017-01-01

    We address the weaknesses inherent in the social risk assessments undertaken for business, especially hi the extractive industries. In contrast to the conventional approach that considers consequence to the company rather than to impacted communities, conformance with the United Nations Guiding

  1. How political affiliation affects adaptation to climate risks: Evidence from New York City

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Botzen, W.J.W.; Michel-Kerjan, E.; Kunreuther, H; De Moel, H; Aerts, J.C.J.H.

    2016-01-01

    Research reveals that liberals and conservatives in the United States diverge about their beliefs regarding climate change. We show empirically that political affiliation also matters with respect to climate related risks such as flooding from hurricanes. Our study is based on a survey conducted 6

  2. Political affiliation affects adaptation to climate risks : Evidence from New York City

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Botzen, W. J Wouter; Michel-Kerjan, Erwann; Kunreuther, Howard; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen C J H

    2016-01-01

    Research reveals that liberals and conservatives in the United States diverge about their beliefs regarding climate change. We show empirically that political affiliation also matters with respect to climate related risks such as flooding from hurricanes. Our study is based on a survey conducted 6

  3. Using Enterprise Architecture for Analysis of a Complex Adaptive Organization's Risk Inducing Characteristics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Salguero, Laura Marie [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Huff, Johnathon [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Matta, Anthony R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Collins, Sue S. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-08-01

    Sandia National Laboratories is an organization with a wide range of research and development activities that include nuclear, explosives, and chemical hazards. In addition, Sandia has over 2000 labs and over 40 major test facilities, such as the Thermal Test Complex, the Lightning Test Facility, and the Rocket Sled Track. In order to support safe operations, Sandia has a diverse Environment, Safety, and Health (ES&H) organization that provides expertise to support engineers and scientists in performing work safely. With such a diverse organization to support, the ES&H program continuously seeks opportunities to improve the services provided for Sandia by using various methods as part of their risk management strategy. One of the methods being investigated is using enterprise architecture analysis to mitigate risk inducing characteristics such as normalization of deviance, organizational drift, and problems in information flow. This paper is a case study for how a Department of Defense Architecture Framework (DoDAF) model of the ES&H enterprise, including information technology applications, can be analyzed to understand the level of risk associated with the risk inducing characteristics discussed above. While the analysis is not complete, we provide proposed analysis methods that will be used for future research as the project progresses.

  4. Effect of spatial adaptation measures on flood risk: study of coastal floods in Belgium

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koks, E.E.; de Moel, H.; Aerts, J.C.J.H.; Bouwer, L.M.

    2014-01-01

    Flood risk in coastal zones is projected to increase due to climate change and socioeconomic changes. Over the last decades, population growth, increases in wealth, and urban expansion have been found to be the main causes for increasing losses in coastal areas. These changes may, however, be offset

  5. Application of the Integrated Safety Assessment methodology to safety margins. Dynamic Event Trees, Damage Domains and Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ibánez, L.; Hortal, J.; Queral, C.; Gómez-Magán, J.; Sánchez-Perea, M.; Fernández, I.; Meléndez, E.; Expósito, A.; Izquierdo, J.M.; Gil, J.; Marrao, H.; Villalba-Jabonero, E.

    2016-01-01

    The Integrated Safety Assessment (ISA) methodology, developed by the Consejo de Seguridad Nuclear, has been applied to an analysis of Zion NPP for sequences with Loss of the Component Cooling Water System (CCWS). The ISA methodology proposal starts from the unfolding of the Dynamic Event Tree (DET). Results from this first step allow assessing the sequence delineation of standard Probabilistic Safety Analysis results. For some sequences of interest of the outlined DET, ISA then identifies the Damage Domain (DD). This is the region of uncertain times and/or parameters where a safety limit is exceeded, which indicates the occurrence of certain damage situation. This paper illustrates application of this concept obtained simulating sequences with MAAP and with TRACE. From information of simulation results of sequence transients belonging to the DD and the time-density probability distributions of the manual actions and of occurrence of stochastic phenomena, ISA integrates the dynamic reliability equations proposed to obtain the sequence contribution to the global Damage Exceedance Frequency (DEF). Reported results show a slight increase in the DEF for sequences investigated following a power uprate from 100% to 110%. This demonstrates the potential use of the method to help in the assessment of design modifications. - Highlights: • This paper illustrates an application of the ISA methodology to safety margins. • Dynamic Event Trees are useful tool for verifying the standard PSA Event Trees. • The ISA methodology takes into account the uncertainties in human action times. • The ISA methodology shows the Damage Exceedance Frequency increase in power uprates.

  6. Is There an Inherent Risk to Damage the Popliteus Tendon by Femoral Component With Inbuilt External Rotation? A Pilot Study in Indian Knees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chouhan, Dervendra Kumar; Dhillon, Mandeep S

    2016-02-01

    Femoral components with inbuilt rotation require thicker flexion resection of the lateral femoral condyle and could have a potential risk of damaging the popliteus tendon, especially in the smaller Asian knees. We prospectively evaluated 10 patients with bilateral varus osteoarthritis knee to size the cuts and their location in relation to the popliteus tendon. Two different types of implant were used on either side; one side requires resection in 3° external rotation (group A) and the other side requires a femoral component with inbuilt external rotation (group B). We observed the incidence of injury to the popliteus tendon and distance between flexion cut to its attachment over the lateral femoral condyle between both groups. We had popliteus tendon injury in 3 knees all from group B. Risk of damaging the popliteus tendon was found higher in group B, as the distance between flexion cut to popliteus tendon attachment was significantly low. Femoral component with inbuilt external rotation has more risk of injuring the popliteus tendon because flexion cut takes out more bone from the lateral femoral condyle. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Risk of obstructive sleep apnea with daytime sleepiness is associated with liver damage in non-morbidly obese patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edoardo Alessandro Pulixi

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: A high prevalence of obstructive sleep apnea syndrome (OSAS has been reported in severely obese patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD, but few studies have evaluated OSAS in non-morbidly obese NAFLD patients. AIMS: To determine the prevalence of risk for OSAS with or without daytime sleepiness in non-morbidly obese patients with NAFLD and evaluate the association with the severity of liver damage. METHODS: We considered 159 consecutive patients with histological NAFLD and body mass index (BMI 1; 9/13, 69% vs. 39/146, 27%; p = 0.003. At multivariate logistic regression analysis, OSAS with sleepiness was strongly associated with NASH and fibrosis>1 independently of known clinical risk factors such as age, gender, BMI, diabetes, and ALT levels (OR 7.1, 95% c.i. 1.7-51, p = 0.005 and OR 14.0, 95% c.i. 3.5-70, p = 0.0002, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: A proportion of NAFLD patients without severe obesity is at risk for OSAS with daytime sleepiness, which is associated with the severity of liver damage independently of body mass and other cofactors.

  8. Religiousness/spirituality do not necessarily matter: Effect on risk perception and adaptive strategies in the semi-arid region of NE Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Regina Célia da Silva Oliveira

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The impact of environmental changes is a major threat to livelihoods, especially for small farmers in semi-arid regions. Therefore, local communities undertake efforts to cope with these new environmental conditions and researchers try to understand the limits of possible adaptive strategies. Religiousness/spirituality are two important factors that can influence environmental awareness and adaptive responses to risks caused by natural phenomena. However, studies addressing the relationship between such factors are either scarce or based on anecdotal information. This article discusses the influence of religiousness/spirituality on the perception of environmental risks by farmers in a rural community in Brazil's northeast region, and their knowledge of adaptive strategies to deal with such concerns. Religiousness/spirituality can positively or negatively influence the perception of risk and knowledge of adaptive strategies when facing environmental uncertainty. We note that dimensions of religiousness/spirituality such as religious history, values/beliefs, commitment, and daily spiritual experiences influence wealth and the sharing of natural perceived risks, as well as adaptive strategies. Based on our results, we conclude that religiousness/spirituality dimensions exert both positive and negative effects on the perception of environmental risks and ways of coping with the impacts of rapid environmental changes.

  9. Work-Related Stress Risk Assessment in Italy: A Methodological Proposal Adapted to Regulatory Guidelines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benedetta Persechino

    2013-06-01

    Conclusion: This methodological proposal is new on the Italian work-related stress risk assessment scene. Besides providing an evaluation approach using scientifically validated instruments, it ensures the active participation of occupational health professionals in each company. The assessment tools provided enable companies not only to comply with the law, but also to contribute to a database for monitoring and assessment and give access to a reserved area for data analysis and comparisons.

  10. Evaluation of the impacts of cooperative adaptive cruise control on reducing rear-end collision risks on freeways.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ye; Wang, Hao; Wang, Wei; Xing, Lu; Liu, Shanwen; Wei, Xueyan

    2017-01-01

    Although plenty of studies have been conducted recently about the impacts of cooperative adaptive cruise control (CACC) system on traffic efficiency, there are few researches analyzing the safety effects of this advanced driving-assistant system. Thus, the primary objective of this study is to evaluate the impacts of the CACC system on reducing rear-end collision risks on freeways. The CACC model is firstly developed, which is based on the Intelligent Driver Model (IDM). Then, two surrogated safety measures, derived from the time-to-collision (TTC), denoting time exposed time-to-collision (TET) and time integrated time-to-collision (TIT), are introduced for quantifying the collision risks. And the safety effects are analyzed both theoretically and experimentally, by the linear stability analysis and simulations. The theoretical and simulation results conformably indicate that the CACC system brings dramatic benefits for reducing rear-end collision risks (TET and TIT are reduced more than 90%, respectively), when the desired time headway and time delay are set properly. The sensitivity analysis indicates there are few differences among different values of the threshold of TTC and the length of a CACC platoon. The results also show that the safety improvements weaken with the decrease of the penetration rates of CACC on the market and the increase of time delay between platoons. We also evaluate the traffic efficiency of the CACC system with different desired time headway. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. The Assessment of and Adaptation to Disease Risk in Liouciou Township, Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chung-Ling Ouyang

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Liouciou Island, located off the south western coast of Taiwan, has 12,550 inhabitants of which high proportion are elderly and fisherman. The medical services are provided mainly by the local Public Health Clinic. Any emergencies or major medical treatment requires patients to be transferred to a regional hospital in Taiwan, which normally takes 40 minutes by the Ambulance boat. The aims of this paper are: 1 To examine the potential risk factors of disease based on the geography and medical services of Liouciou island; 2 To analyze the participants’ perception of disease risk on the island at various spatial scales (individual, family, neighbor, island or nation; 3 To analyze the adjustment strategies towards disease risks used by the Liouciou island people. Questionnaires and in-depth interviews were used to gather the information. The results show that participants in Liouciou worried about the Ambulance boat not being able to sail in bad weather conditions. In addition, the young people complained about the local medical facilities and physician’s skill while the elderly admitted their life was predetermined by God. The fishermen also reported that they were unable to follow up on their chronic disease. As a result, most of them ignored their health.

  12. Risk-adapted stratification and treatment of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schrappe, M.

    2008-01-01

    Systematic enrolment of children and adolescents with acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) into clinical trials has allowed the establishment of prognostic parameters derived from initial diagnostic findings. More important, these trials have significantly contributed to the reduction of disease recurrence as much as to the reduction of acute and late side effects. Some problems that are related to the specificity of the parameters used for risk assessment were not overcome: high tumour load by white blood cell count (WBC), age and (rare) cytogenetic subtypes (e.g. t9;22) may characterise a significant proportion of children and adolescents with high-risk ALL. Most patients who will eventually relapse do not present with characteristic features at initial diagnosis. It appears feasible through careful response assessment to identify these patients at risk of relapse, who present initially without specific features. Earlier trials of the ALL-BFM (Berlin/Frankfurt/Muenster) study group and others have demonstrated that inadequate leukaemic blast reduction in the peripheral blood or bone marrow after the first few days of therapy is highly predictive of treatment failure. Using clone-specific polymerase chain reaction-based detection of minimal residual disease (MRD) as done in trial AIEOP-BFM ALL 2000 allowed a close surveillance of specific treatment elements when applied in MRD positive patients. This may facilitate innovative chemotherapy approaches and a more rational use of allogeneic haematopoietic stem cell transplantation. In addition, genetic signatures of treatment response or failure have been identified. (authors)

  13. A risk-adapted approach is beneficial in the management of bilateral femoral shaft fractures in multiple trauma patients: an analysis based on the trauma registry of the German Trauma Society.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steinhausen, Eva; Lefering, Rolf; Tjardes, Thorsten; Neugebauer, Edmund A M; Bouillon, Bertil; Rixen, Dieter

    2014-05-01

    Today, there is a trend toward damage-control orthopedics (DCO) in the management of multiple trauma patients with long bone fractures. However, there is no widely accepted concept. A risk-adapted approach seems to result in low acute morbidity and mortality. Multiple trauma patients with bilateral femoral shaft fractures (FSFs) are considered to be more severely injured. The objective of this study was to validate the risk-adapted approach in the management of multiple trauma patients with bilateral FSF. Data analysis is based on the trauma registry of the German Trauma Society (1993-2008, n = 42,248). Multiple trauma patients with bilateral FSF were analyzed in subgroups according to the type of primary operative strategy. Outcome parameters were mortality and major complications as (multiple) organ failure and sepsis. A total of 379 patients with bilateral FSF were divided into four groups as follows: (1) no operation (8.4%), (2) bilateral temporary external fixation (DCO) (50.9%), bilateral primary definitive osteosynthesis (early total care [ETC]) (25.1%), and primary definitive osteosynthesis of one FSF and DCO contralaterally (mixed) (15.6%). Compared with the ETC group, the DCO group was more severely injured. The incidence of (multiple) organ failure and mortality rates were higher in the DCO group but without significance. Adjusted for injury severity, there was no significant difference of mortality rates between DCO and ETC. Injury severity and mortality rates were significantly increased in the no-operation group. The mixed group was similar to the ETC group regarding injury severity and outcome. In Germany, both DCO and ETC are practiced in multiple trauma patients with bilateral FSF so far. The unstable or potentially unstable patient is reasonably treated with DCO. The clearly stable patient is reasonably treated with nailing. When in doubt, the patient is probably not totally stable, and the safest precaution may be to use DCO as a risk-adapted

  14. Evaluation of the risk of liver damage from the use of 5-aminolevulinic acid for intra-operative identification and resection in patients with malignant gliomas

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Offersen, Cecilie Mørck; Skjoeth-Rasmussen, Jane

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The clinical efficacy of 5-aminolevulinic acid (5-ALA) for fluorescence-guided surgery of malignant gliomas is evident from several studies; however, as post-operative elevations of liver enzymes have been seen, there is a potential risk of liver damage upon administration. The aim...... (September 2012-September 2014) at the University Hospital of Copenhagen, Rigshospitalet, was conducted. All patients received a pre-operative dose of 20 mg/kg bodyweight 5-ALA. The pre- and post-operative enzyme levels of alanine aminotransferase, aspartate aminotransferase, gamma glutamyltransferase...

  15. Classification and assessment of water bodies as adaptive structural measures for flood risk management planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMinn, William R; Yang, Qinli; Scholz, Miklas

    2010-09-01

    Severe rainfall events have become increasingly common in Europe. Flood defence engineering works are highly capital intensive and can be limited by land availability, leaving land and communities exposed to repeated flooding. Any adaptive drainage structure must have engineered inlets and outlets that control the water level and the rate of release. In Scotland, there are a relatively high number of drinking water reservoirs (operated by Scottish Water), which fall within this defined category and could contribute to flood management control. Reducing the rate of runoff from the upper reaches of a catchment will reduce the volume and peak flows of flood events downstream, thus allowing flood defences to be reduced in size, decreasing the corresponding capital costs. A database of retention basins with flood control potential has been developed for Scotland. The research shows that the majority of small and former drinking water reservoirs are kept full and their spillways are continuously in operation. Utilising some of the available capacity to contribute to flood control could reduce the costs of complying with the EU Flood Directive. Furthermore, the application of a previously developed classification model for Baden in Germany for the Scottish data set showed a lower diversity for basins in Scotland due to less developed infrastructure. The principle value of this approach is a clear and unambiguous categorisation, based on standard variables, which can help to promote communication and understanding between stakeholders. 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Sovereign Adaptive Risk Modeling and Implications for the Eurozone GREXIT Case

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Morgan Escalera

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available In the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, the Financial Stability Board (FSB and the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS created a list of systemically important financial institutions (SIFIs with the intention of determining which financial institutions were important enough to the global market that their failure would result in systemic collapse. In this work, we create a model that modifies the BCBS’s five indicators of size, interconnectedness, cross-jurisdictional activities, complexity, and substitutability and apply these measures of systemic stress to governments. Although the cross-jurisdictional activities and size were almost identical to the SIFI calculations, the others had to be adapted to mirror the intent of the BCBS. Interconnectedness is calculated by simulation of what would happen to nearby countries if a country defaulted. Substitutability is estimated by the number of services that would no longer be provided if the government ceased to exist. Complexity is market-based and is derived from credit default swap (CDS spreads. The original application of the model was to track the systemic interdependence of the Eurozone, with particular emphasis on the case of Greece. We anticipate that this model can be used in regional fiscal situations beyond the Eurozone.

  17. SIOP PODC adapted treatment recommendations for standard-risk medulloblastoma in low and middle income settings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parkes, Jeannette; Hendricks, Marc; Ssenyonga, Peter; Mugamba, John; Molyneux, Elizabeth; Schouten-van Meeteren, Antoinette; Qaddoumi, Ibrahim; Fieggen, Graham; Luna-Fineman, Sandra; Howard, Scott; Mitra, Dipayan; Bouffet, Eric; Davidson, Alan; Bailey, Simon

    2015-04-01

    Effective treatment of children with medulloblastoma requires a functioning multi-disciplinary team with adequate neurosurgical, neuroradiological, pathological, radiotherapy and chemotherapy facilities and personnel. In addition the treating centre should have the capacity to effectively screen and manage any tumour and treatment-associated complications. These requirements have made it difficult for many low and middle-income countries (LMIC) centres to offer curative treatment. This article provides management recommendations for children with standard-risk medulloblastoma (localised tumours in children over the age of 3-5 years) according to the level of facilities available. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  18. Climate adaptation of buildings through MOM- and upgrading - State of the art and research needs

    OpenAIRE

    Grynning, Steinar; Wærnes, Elisabeth Gaal; Kvande, Tore; Time, Berit

    2017-01-01

    This study presents an overview of research initiatives and projects addressing climate adaption in management operation and maintenance (MOM) and upgrade of existing buildings. The aim was to identify knowledge needs and research demand necessary for decision makers to address climate adaptation in their MOM and upgrade plans. Climate adaptation of buildings in the Norwegian climate very much concerns increased moisture robustness and risk reduction of moisture damages. Thus, a strong focus ...

  19. Extreme weather events: Should drinking water quality management systems adapt to changing risk profiles?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Stuart J; Deere, Daniel; Leusch, Frederic D L; Humpage, Andrew; Jenkins, Madeleine; Cunliffe, David

    2015-11-15

    Among the most widely predicted and accepted consequences of global climate change are increases in both the frequency and severity of a variety of extreme weather events. Such weather events include heavy rainfall and floods, cyclones, droughts, heatwaves, extreme cold, and wildfires, each of which can potentially impact drinking water quality by affecting water catchments, storage reservoirs, the performance of water treatment processes or the integrity of distribution systems. Drinking water guidelines, such as the Australian Drinking Water Guidelines and the World Health Organization Guidelines for Drinking-water Quality, provide guidance for the safe management of drinking water. These documents present principles and strategies for managing risks that may be posed to drinking water quality. While these principles and strategies are applicable to all types of water quality risks, very little specific attention has been paid to the management of extreme weather events. We present a review of recent literature on water quality impacts of extreme weather events and consider practical opportunities for improved guidance for water managers. We conclude that there is a case for an enhanced focus on the management of water quality impacts from extreme weather events in future revisions of water quality guidance documents. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Environmental prediction, risk assessment and extreme events: adaptation strategies for the developing world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webster, Peter J.; Jian, Jun

    2011-01-01

    The uncertainty associated with predicting extreme weather events has serious implications for the developing world, owing to the greater societal vulnerability to such events. Continual exposure to unanticipated extreme events is a contributing factor for the descent into perpetual and structural rural poverty. We provide two examples of how probabilistic environmental prediction of extreme weather events can support dynamic adaptation. In the current climate era, we describe how short-term flood forecasts have been developed and implemented in Bangladesh. Forecasts of impending floods with horizons of 10 days are used to change agricultural practices and planning, store food and household items and evacuate those in peril. For the first time in Bangladesh, floods were anticipated in 2007 and 2008, with broad actions taking place in advance of the floods, grossing agricultural and household savings measured in units of annual income. We argue that probabilistic environmental forecasts disseminated to an informed user community can reduce poverty caused by exposure to unanticipated extreme events. Second, it is also realized that not all decisions in the future can be made at the village level and that grand plans for water resource management require extensive planning and funding. Based on imperfect models and scenarios of economic and population growth, we further suggest that flood frequency and intensity will increase in the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Yangtze catchments as greenhouse-gas concentrations increase. However, irrespective of the climate-change scenario chosen, the availability of fresh water in the latter half of the twenty-first century seems to be dominated by population increases that far outweigh climate-change effects. Paradoxically, fresh water availability may become more critical if there is no climate change. PMID:22042897

  1. WE-AB-209-08: Novel Beam-Specific Adaptive Margins for Reducing Organ-At-Risk Doses

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tsang, H; Kamerling, CP; Ziegenhein, P; Nill, S; Oelfke, U [The Institute of Cancer Research and The Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust, London (United Kingdom)

    2016-06-15

    Purpose: Current practice of using 3D margins in radiotherapy with high-energy photon beams provides larger-than-required target coverage. According to the photon depth-dose curve, target displacements in beam direction result in minute changes in dose delivered. We exploit this behavior by generating margins on a per-beam basis which simultaneously account for the relative distance of the target and adjacent organs-at-risk (OARs). Methods: For each beam, we consider only geometrical uncertainties of the target location perpendicular to beam direction. By weighting voxels based on its proximity to an OAR, we generate adaptive margins that yield similar overall target coverage probability and reduced OAR dose-burden, at the expense of increased target volume. Three IMRT plans, using 3D margins and 2D per-beam margins with and without adaptation, were generated for five prostate patients with a prescription dose Dpres of 78Gy in 2Gy fractions using identical optimisation constraints. Systematic uncertainties of 1.1, 1.1, 1.5mm in the LR, SI, and AP directions, respectively, and 0.9, 1.1, 1.0mm for the random uncertainties, were assumed. A verification tool was employed to simulate the effects of systematic and random errors using a population size of 50,000. The fraction of the population that satisfies or violates a given DVH constraint was used for comparison. Results: We observe similar target coverage across all plans, with at least 97.5% of the population meeting the D98%>95%Dpres constraint. When looking at the probability of the population receiving D5<70Gy for the rectum, we observed median absolute increases of 23.61% (range, 2.15%–27.85%) and 6.97% (range, 0.65%–17.76%) using per-beam margins with and without adaptation, respectively, relative to using 3D margins. Conclusion: We observed sufficient and similar target coverage using per-beam margins. By adapting each per-beam margin away from an OAR, we can further reduce OAR dose without significantly

  2. WE-AB-209-08: Novel Beam-Specific Adaptive Margins for Reducing Organ-At-Risk Doses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tsang, H; Kamerling, CP; Ziegenhein, P; Nill, S; Oelfke, U

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: Current practice of using 3D margins in radiotherapy with high-energy photon beams provides larger-than-required target coverage. According to the photon depth-dose curve, target displacements in beam direction result in minute changes in dose delivered. We exploit this behavior by generating margins on a per-beam basis which simultaneously account for the relative distance of the target and adjacent organs-at-risk (OARs). Methods: For each beam, we consider only geometrical uncertainties of the target location perpendicular to beam direction. By weighting voxels based on its proximity to an OAR, we generate adaptive margins that yield similar overall target coverage probability and reduced OAR dose-burden, at the expense of increased target volume. Three IMRT plans, using 3D margins and 2D per-beam margins with and without adaptation, were generated for five prostate patients with a prescription dose Dpres of 78Gy in 2Gy fractions using identical optimisation constraints. Systematic uncertainties of 1.1, 1.1, 1.5mm in the LR, SI, and AP directions, respectively, and 0.9, 1.1, 1.0mm for the random uncertainties, were assumed. A verification tool was employed to simulate the effects of systematic and random errors using a population size of 50,000. The fraction of the population that satisfies or violates a given DVH constraint was used for comparison. Results: We observe similar target coverage across all plans, with at least 97.5% of the population meeting the D98%>95%Dpres constraint. When looking at the probability of the population receiving D5<70Gy for the rectum, we observed median absolute increases of 23.61% (range, 2.15%–27.85%) and 6.97% (range, 0.65%–17.76%) using per-beam margins with and without adaptation, respectively, relative to using 3D margins. Conclusion: We observed sufficient and similar target coverage using per-beam margins. By adapting each per-beam margin away from an OAR, we can further reduce OAR dose without significantly

  3. Socio-Hydrological Observatory for Water Security (SHOWS): Examples of Adaptation Strategies With Next Challenges from Brazilian Risk Areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Souza, F. A. A. D.; Mendiondo, E. M.; Taffarello, D.; Guzmán-Arias, D.; Fava, M. C.; Abreu, F.; Freitas, C. C.; de Macedo, M. B.; Estrada, C. R.; do Lago, C. A.

    2017-12-01

    In Brazil, more than 40,000 hot-spot areas, with vulnerable human settlements with ca. 120 million inhabitants and responsible of 60% of Brazilian Gross Net Product, are threatened by hydrological-driven disaster risks. In these areas, local resilient actions and adaptation strategies do integrate the current Brazilian Act and Regulation of Laws of urban waters, climate change and civil protection. However, these initiatives are still under slow progress, especially to cope with floods, landslides, droughts, progressive biodiversity losses and energy burnouts. Here we address these hot-spots through the concept of Socio-Hydrological Observatory for Water Security (SHOWS), with a mix of adaptation strategies, open-source, big data analysis and societal feedbacks. On the one hand, SHOWS merges strategies like the dynamic framework of water security (Srinivasan et al, 2017), drought risk mapping (Rossato et al, 2017) and water securitization under varying water demand and climate change until year 2100 (Mohor & Mendiondo, 2017; Guzmán-Arias et al, 2017). SHOWS acknowledges different perspectives of water insecurity, several spatiotemporal scales and regime shifts in socio-hydrologic systems. On the one hand, SHOWS links field monitoring during water insecurity hazards (Taffarello et al, 2016), ecosystem-based adaptation networks, and decision-making and big data sources to disaster management (Horita et al, 2017). By using selected examples from two Brazilian running interdisciplinary research aliances, i.e. CAPES-ProAlertas CEMADEN-CEPED/USP and the CNPq/FAPESP National Institute of Science & Technology on Climate Change-II Water Security, we also face the limits, the pros and cons of SHOWS' assumptions. Through real-cases paradoxes, (i.e. 2013/2014 drought), water dashboards and coevolution trends (i.e. impacts on river basin committees from scenarios until 2050, 2100 in NE & SE Brazil), SHOWS helps on guiding decisionmaking for next societal steps of water

  4. Recognition of Risk Information - Adaptation of J. Bertin's Orderable Matrix for social communication

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ishida, Keiichi

    2018-05-01

    This paper aims to show capability of the Orderable Matrix of Jacques Bertin which is a visualization method of data analyze and/or a method to recognize data. That matrix can show the data by replacing numbers to visual element. As an example, using a set of data regarding natural hazard rankings for certain metropolitan cities in the world, this paper describes how the Orderable Matrix handles the data set and show characteristic factors of this data to understand it. Not only to see a kind of risk ranking of cities, the Orderable Matrix shows how differently danger concerned cities ones and others are. Furthermore, we will see that the visualized data by Orderable Matrix allows us to see the characteristics of the data set comprehensively and instantaneously.

  5. Results of a risk adapted and functional radioiodine therapy in Graves' disease

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dunkelmann, S.; Neumann, V.; Staub, U.; Groth, P.; Kuenstner, H.; Schuemichen, C. [Klinik und Poliklinik fuer Nuklearmedizin, Zentrum fuer Radiologie, Univ. Rostock (Germany)

    2005-07-01

    Aim of this study was to find out, if results of a functional orientated radioiodine therapy in Graves' disease could be optimized using a risk adopted dose concept. Patients, method: 351 patients with Graves' disease were treated for the first time between 11/97 and 8/01. The basic dose was 125 Gy, which was increased up to 250 Gy in a cumulative manner depending on clinical parameters (initial thyroid metabolism, thyroid volume, immunoreactivity). Two different methods of dosimetry were used. Occasional thyreostasis was withdrawn two days before the radioiodine test was started. Follow up was done on overage 8 {+-} 2,4 (4-17,2) months. TSH {>=}0,27 {mu}IU/mL confirmed as a measure of the success. Results: With improved pretherapeutic dosimetry and a mean target dose of 178 {+-} 31 Gy (n = 72) therapeutic success occurred in 66,7%, in 51,4% euthyreosis was restalled and in 15,3% of patients hypothyroidism was seen (TSH >4,20 {mu}IU/mL). With simplified pretherapeutic dosimetry and a mean target dose of 172 {+-} 29 Gy (n = 279) results were moderately impaired (63,8%, 40,1% and 23,7%). With increasing target dose therapeutic failure increased, as unsufficiently adopted risk factors for therapeutic failure turned out the initial thyroid metabolism, the TcTU(s) as the (h)TRAb titer. Conclusion: Functional orientated RIT can be optimized by including illness specific characteristics, principal limitations are a high initial thyroid metabolism, a large thyroid volume and a high (h)TRAb-titer. (orig.)

  6. Adjuvant-dependent innate and adaptive immune signatures of risk of SIVmac251 acquisition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaccari, Monica; Gordon, Shari N; Fourati, Slim; Schifanella, Luca; Liyanage, Namal P M; Cameron, Mark; Keele, Brandon F; Shen, Xiaoying; Tomaras, Georgia D; Billings, Erik; Rao, Mangala; Chung, Amy W; Dowell, Karen G; Bailey-Kellogg, Chris; Brown, Eric P; Ackerman, Margaret E; Vargas-Inchaustegui, Diego A; Whitney, Stephen; Doster, Melvin N; Binello, Nicolo; Pegu, Poonam; Montefiori, David C; Foulds, Kathryn; Quinn, David S; Donaldson, Mitzi; Liang, Frank; Loré, Karin; Roederer, Mario; Koup, Richard A; McDermott, Adrian; Ma, Zhong-Min; Miller, Christopher J; Phan, Tran B; Forthal, Donald N; Blackburn, Matthew; Caccuri, Francesca; Bissa, Massimiliano; Ferrari, Guido; Kalyanaraman, Vaniambadi; Ferrari, Maria G; Thompson, DeVon; Robert-Guroff, Marjorie; Ratto-Kim, Silvia; Kim, Jerome H; Michael, Nelson L; Phogat, Sanjay; Barnett, Susan W; Tartaglia, Jim; Venzon, David; Stablein, Donald M; Alter, Galit; Sekaly, Rafick-Pierre; Franchini, Genoveffa

    2016-07-01

    A recombinant vaccine containing Aventis Pasteur's canarypox vector (ALVAC)-HIV and gp120 alum decreased the risk of HIV acquisition in the RV144 vaccine trial. The substitution of alum with the more immunogenic MF59 adjuvant is under consideration for the next efficacy human trial. We found here that an ALVAC-simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV) and gp120 alum (ALVAC-SIV + gp120) equivalent vaccine, but not an ALVAC-SIV + gp120 MF59 vaccine, was efficacious in delaying the onset of SIVmac251 in rhesus macaques, despite the higher immunogenicity of the latter adjuvant. Vaccine efficacy was associated with alum-induced, but not with MF59-induced, envelope (Env)-dependent mucosal innate lymphoid cells (ILCs) that produce interleukin (IL)-17, as well as with mucosal IgG to the gp120 variable region 2 (V2) and the expression of 12 genes, ten of which are part of the RAS pathway. The association between RAS activation and vaccine efficacy was also observed in an independent efficacious SIV-vaccine approach. Whether RAS activation, mucosal ILCs and antibodies to V2 are also important hallmarks of HIV-vaccine efficacy in humans will require further studies.

  7. Ligamentous Injuries and the Risk of Associated Tissue Damage in Acute Ankle Sprains in Athletes: A Cross-sectional MRI Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roemer, Frank W; Jomaah, Nabil; Niu, Jingbo; Almusa, Emad; Roger, Bernard; D'Hooghe, Pieter; Geertsema, Celeste; Tol, Johannes L; Khan, Karim; Guermazi, Ali

    2014-07-01

    Ankle joint injuries are extremely common sports injuries, with the anterior talofibular ligament involved in the majority of ankle sprains. There have been only a few large magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) studies on associated structural injuries after ankle sprains. To describe the injury pattern in athletes who were referred to MRI for the assessment of an acute ankle sprain and to assess the risk of associated traumatic tissue damage including lateral and syndesmotic ligament involvement. Cross-sectional study; Level of evidence, 3. A total of 261 ankle MRI scans of athletes with acute ankle sprains were evaluated for: lateral and syndesmotic ligament injury; concomitant injuries to the deltoid and spring ligaments and sinus tarsi; peroneal, flexor, and extensor retinacula and tendons; traumatic and nontraumatic osteochondral and osseous changes; and joint effusion. Patients were on average 22.5 years old, and the average time from injury to MRI was 5.7 days. Six exclusive injury patterns were defined based on lateral and syndesmotic ligament involvement. The risk for associated injuries was assessed by logistic regression using ankles with no or only low-grade lateral ligament injuries and no syndesmotic ligament damage as the reference. With regard to the injury pattern, there were 103 ankles (39.5%) with complete anterior talofibular ligament disruption and no syndesmotic injury, and 53 ankles (20.3%) had a syndesmotic injury with or without lateral ligament damage. Acute osteochondral lesions of the lateral talar dome were seen in 20 ankles (7.7%). The percentage of chronic lateral osteochondral lesions was 1.1%. The risk for talar bone contusions increased more than 3-fold for ankles with complete lateral ligament ruptures (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 3.43; 95% CI, 1.72-6.85) but not for ankles with syndesmotic involvement. The risk for associated deltoid ligament injuries increased for ankles with complete lateral ligament injuries (aOR, 4.04; 95% CI, 1

  8. High plasma homocyst(e)ine levels in elderly Japanese patients are associated with increased cardiovascular disease risk independently from markers of coagulation activation and endothelial cell damage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kario, K; Duell, P B; Matsuo, T; Sakata, T; Kato, H; Shimada, K; Miyata, T

    2001-08-01

    Elevated plasma homocyst(e)ine is a risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD) in many populations, but the relationship between homocyst(e)ine and CVD in Japanese subjects has been unclear. It has been hypothesized that the link between homocyst(e)ine and CVD may be mediated in part by activation of coagulation and endothelial cell injury in the elderly Japanese subjects. To further evaluate this hypothesis, the present cross-sectional study was designed to assess the relationships among plasma homocyst(e)ine concentrations, risk of CVD, and markers of coagulation (fibrinogen, FVII, F1+2, FVIIa and FXIIa) and endothelial cell damage (vWF and thrombomodulin) in 146 elderly Japanese subjects (79 healthy controls and 67 patients with CVD). The geometric mean (range) of plasma homocyst(e)ine concentrations was 10.2 (3.2--33) micromol/l in 79 Japanese healthy elderly subjects. As expected, healthy female and male elderly subjects had homocyst(e)ine levels that were 2.5 and 5.3 micromol/; higher, respectively, compared to healthy young control subjects (n=62). Healthy young and elderly men had homocyst(e)ine levels that were 1.7 and 4.5 micromol/l higher, respectively, compared to values in women. This higher plasma homocyst(e)ine levels in the elderly subjects were negatively correlated with levels of folic acid, albumin and total cholesterol, but were not significantly related to markers of coagulation or endothelial cell-damage. The results of multiple logistic regression analyses suggested that high homocyst(e)ine levels were independently related to CVD risk. In addition, levels of FVIIa, and F1+2 were significantly higher in elderly Japanese patients with CVD compared to elderly subjects without CVD, but were unrelated to plasma homocyst(e)ine concentrations. In summary, elevated plasma concentrations of homocyst(e)ine, FVIIa, and F1+2 were associated with increased risk of CVD in elderly male and female Japanese subjects, but the association between homocyst

  9. Risks in the transport and storage of liquefied natural gas. Sub-project 5-2: Investigation into building damage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gouwens, C.; Dragosavic, M.

    The large reserves and increasing use of natural gas as a source of energy have resulted in its storage and transport becoming an urgent problem. Since a liquid of the same mass occupies only a fraction of the volume of a gas, it is economical to store natural gas as a liquid. Liquefied natural gas is stored in insulated tanks and also carried by ship at a temperature of -160 C to 170 C. If a serious accident allows the LNG to escape, a gas cloud forms. The results of a possible explosion from such a gas cloud are studied. The development of a leak, escape and evaporation, size and propagation of the gas cloud, the explosive pressures to be expected and the results on the environment are investigated. Damage to buildings is examined making use of the preliminary conclusions of the other sub-projects and especially the explosive pressures.

  10. Risk-adapted monitoring is not inferior to extensive on-site monitoring: Results of the ADAMON cluster-randomised study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brosteanu, Oana; Schwarz, Gabriele; Houben, Peggy; Paulus, Ursula; Strenge-Hesse, Anke; Zettelmeyer, Ulrike; Schneider, Anja; Hasenclever, Dirk

    2017-12-01

    Background According to Good Clinical Practice, clinical trials must protect rights and safety of patients and make sure that the trial results are valid and interpretable. Monitoring on-site has an important role in achieving these objectives; it controls trial conduct at trial sites and informs the sponsor on systematic problems. In the past, extensive on-site monitoring with a particular focus on formal source data verification often lost sight of systematic problems in study procedures that endanger Good Clinical Practice objectives. ADAMON is a prospective, stratified, cluster-randomised, controlled study comparing extensive on-site monitoring with risk-adapted monitoring according to a previously published approach. Methods In all, 213 sites from 11 academic trials were cluster-randomised between extensive on-site monitoring (104) and risk-adapted monitoring (109). Independent post-trial audits using structured manuals were performed to determine the frequency of major Good Clinical Practice findings at the patient level. The primary outcome measure is the proportion of audited patients with at least one major audit finding. Analysis relies on logistic regression incorporating trial and monitoring arm as fixed effects and site as random effect. The hypothesis was that risk-adapted monitoring is non-inferior to extensive on-site monitoring with a non-inferiority margin of 0.60 (logit scale). Results Average number of monitoring visits and time spent on-site was 2.1 and 2.7 times higher in extensive on-site monitoring than in risk-adapted monitoring, respectively. A total of 156 (extensive on-site monitoring: 76; risk-adapted monitoring: 80) sites were audited. In 996 of 1618 audited patients, a total of 2456 major audit findings were documented. Depending on the trial, findings were identified in 18%-99% of the audited patients, with no marked monitoring effect in any of the trials. The estimated monitoring effect is -0.04 on the logit scale with two-sided 95

  11. Reconstruction of false spring occurrences over the southeastern United States, 1901-2007: an increasing risk of spring freeze damage?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marino, Garrett P; Kaiser, Dale P; Gu, Lianhong; Ricciuto, Daniel M

    2011-01-01

    Near-record warmth over much of the United States during March 2007 promoted early growth of crops and vegetation. A widespread arctic air outbreak followed in early April, resulting in extensive agricultural losses over much of the south-central and southeastern US. This 'false spring' event also resulted in widespread damage to newly grown tissues of native deciduous forest species, shown by previous researchers to have had measurable effects on the terrestrial carbon cycle. The current study reconstructed the historical occurrence of false springs over most of the southeastern quarter of the conterminous US (32-39 deg. N; 75-98 deg. W) from 1901 to 2007 using daily maximum and minimum temperature records from 176 stations in the Global Historical Climatology Network database, and enhanced vegetation index (EVI) data derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite observations. A false spring index was derived that examined the timing of the start of the growing season (SGS), or leaf emergence, relative to the timing of a potentially damaging last hard freeze (minimum temperature ≤ - 2.2 deg. C). SGS was modeled for the domain by combining EVI data with ground-based temperature 'degree day' calculations reflecting the rate of springtime warming. No significant area-wide, long-term SGS trend was found; however, over much of a contiguous region stretching from Mississippi eastward to the Carolinas, the timing of the last hard freeze was found to occur significantly later, this change occurring along with increased frequency of false springs. Earlier last hard freeze dates and decreased frequency of false springs were found over much of the northwestern part of the study region, including Arkansas and southern Missouri.

  12. Adaptation and analysis of psychometric features of the Caregiver Risk Screen: a tool for detecting the risk of burden in family caregivers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinez-Rodriguez, Silvia; Ortiz-Marqués, Nuria; Iraurgi, Ioseba; Carrasco, María; Miguel, José J

    2013-05-01

    There are a limited number of scales available in the Spanish language that can be used to detect burden among individuals who care for a dependent family member. The purpose of this work was to adapt and validate the Caregiver Risk Screen (CRS) scale developed by Guberman et al. (2001) (Guberman, N., Keefe, J., Fancey, P., Nahmiash, D. and Barylak, L. (2001). Development of Screening and Assessment Tools for Family Caregivers: Final Report. Montreal, Canada: Health Transition Fund). The sample was made up of 302 informal caregivers of dependent family members (average age 57.3 years, and 78.9% were women). Scale structure was subjected to a confirmatory factor analysis. Concurrent and convergent validity were assessed by correlation with validated questionnaires for measuring burden (Zarit Burden Inventory (ZBI)) and psychological health (SCL-90-R). The results show a high level of internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha = 0.86), suitable fit of the one-dimensional model tested via confirmatory factor analysis (GFI = 0.91; CFI = 0.91; RMSEA = 0.097), and appropriate convergent validity with similar constructs (r = 0.77 with ZBI; and r-values between 0.45 and 0.63 with SCL-90-R dimensions). The findings are promising in terms of their adaptation of the CRS to Spanish, and the results enable us to draw the conclusion that the CRS is a suitable tool for assessing and detecting strain in family caregivers. Nevertheless, new research is required that explores all the psychometric features on the scale.

  13. Adapting the coping in deliberation (CODE) framework: a multi-method approach in the context of familial ovarian cancer risk management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Witt, Jana; Elwyn, Glyn; Wood, Fiona; Rogers, Mark T; Menon, Usha; Brain, Kate

    2014-11-01

    To test whether the coping in deliberation (CODE) framework can be adapted to a specific preference-sensitive medical decision: risk-reducing bilateral salpingo-oophorectomy (RRSO) in women at increased risk of ovarian cancer. We performed a systematic literature search to identify issues important to women during deliberations about RRSO. Three focus groups with patients (most were pre-menopausal and untested for genetic mutations) and 11 interviews with health professionals were conducted to determine which issues mattered in the UK context. Data were used to adapt the generic CODE framework. The literature search yielded 49 relevant studies, which highlighted various issues and coping options important during deliberations, including mutation status, risks of surgery, family obligations, physician recommendation, peer support and reliable information sources. Consultations with UK stakeholders confirmed most of these factors as pertinent influences on deliberations. Questions in the generic framework were adapted to reflect the issues and coping options identified. The generic CODE framework was readily adapted to a specific preference-sensitive medical decision, showing that deliberations and coping are linked during deliberations about RRSO. Adapted versions of the CODE framework may be used to develop tailored decision support methods and materials in order to improve patient-centred care. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Peculiarities of adaptation reactions in female migrants and health disorders risks occuring after different periods of staying on Moscow region territory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N.F. Izmerov

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The article gives the results of determining peculiarities which are characteristic for adaptation in female migrants de-pending on a period of their staying in Moscow region. Adaptation was assessed as per variants of functional stress status and functional abilities of circulatory system. We detected that female migrants during their adaptation to impacts exerted by neuro-emotional factors, social-psychological factors, and physical (muscular loads which varied in their intensity and length, had signs of stress syndrome. This syndrome was apparent through physiological parameters, namely increase in index of functional changes in circulatory system, and changes in heart rate variability as per regulatory systems activity parameter (PARS. If female migrants stayed in Moscow region for less than 3 years than the most specific weight of migrants with unsatisfactory adaptation was detected among Russians and it was equal to 36.04%; adaptation mechanisms were strained among Tadjiks women (62.08 %. If they stayed for longer than 3 years, then unsatisfactory adaptation parameter grew among Tadjiks women by 12.4 % and it indicated that the body's functional reserves were mobilized and it could lead to adaptation failure. When ad-aptation was satisfactory, β-adrenoactivity of erythrocytes membranes was within the physiological changes standards regardless of a period of staying. When adaptation mechanisms were strained and adaptation itself was unsatisfactory, the greatest growth in this parameter was detected among Tadjiks women in any period of staying. Preservation of female labor migrants health and prolongation of their working capacity period requires a system of med-ical and social support. Activities aimed at primary prevention of health disorders should include general physical training, tempering, autogenous training, and elimination of hazardous communal and occupational risk factors. Secondary prevention activities are systematic medical

  15. Brief Communication: CATALYST - a multi-regional stakeholder Think Tank for fostering capacity development in disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Terwisscha van Scheltinga, C.T.H.M.; Hare, M.P.; Bers, van C.; Keur, van der P.

    2014-01-01

    This brief communication presents the work and objectives of the CATALYST project on "Capacity Development for Hazard Risk Reduction and Adaptation" funded by the European Commission (October 2011–September 2013). CATALYST set up a multi-regional think tank covering four regions (Central America and

  16. A Best Practices Notebook for Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation: Guidance and Insights for Policy and Practice from the CATALYST Project

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hare, M.; Bers, van C.; Mysiak, J.; Calliari, E.; Haque, A.; Warner, K.; Yuzva, K.; Zissener, M.; Jaspers, A.M.J.; Timmerman, J.G.

    2014-01-01

    This publication, A Best Practices Notebook for Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation: Guidance and Insights for Policy and Practice from the CATALYST Project is one of two main CATALYST knowledge products that focus on the transformative approaches and measures that can support

  17. Armigeres subalbatus colonization of damaged pit latrines: a nuisance and potential health risk to residents of resettlement villages in Laos.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hiscox, A; Hirooka, R; Vongphayloth, K; Hill, N; Lindsay, S W; Grandadam, M; Brey, P T

    2016-03-01

    During the resettlement of 6500 persons living around the Nam Theun 2 hydroelectric project in Laos, more than 1200 pour-flush latrines were constructed. To assess the role of these latrines as productive larval habitats for mosquitoes, entomological investigations using Centers for Disease Control (CDC) light traps, visual inspection and emergence trapping were carried out in over 300 latrines during the rainy seasons of 2008-2010. Armigeres subalbatus (Diptera: Culicidae) were nine times more likely to be found in latrines (mean catch: 3.09) than in adjacent bedrooms (mean catch: 0.37) [odds ratio (OR) 9.08, 95% confidence interval (CI) 6.74-15.11] and mosquitoes were active in and around 59% of latrines at dusk. Armigeres subalbatus was strongly associated with latrines with damaged or improperly sealed septic tank covers (OR 5.44, 95% CI 2.02-14.67; P resettlement villages. The scale-up of this simple, cheap intervention would have global impact in preventing the colonization of septic tanks by nuisance biting and disease-transmitting mosquitoes. © 2015 The Royal Entomological Society.

  18. KLIMA 2050: a research-based innovation centre for risk reduction through climate adaptation of infrastructure and buildings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solheim, Anders; Time, Berit; Kvande, Tore; Sivertsen, Edvard; Cepeda, Jose; Lappegard Hauge, Åshild; Bygballe, Lena; Almås, Anders-Johan

    2016-04-01

    Klima 2050 - Risk reduction through climate adaptation of buildings and infrastructure is a Centre for Research based Innovation (SFI), funded jointly by the Research Council of Norway (RCN) and the partners of the centre. The aim of Klima 2050 is to reduce the societal risks associated with climate changes, including enhanced precipitation and flood water exposure within the built environment. The Centre will strengthen companies' innovation capacity through a focus on long-term research. It is also a clear objective to facilitate close cooperation between Research & Development, performing companies, public entities, and prominent research groups. Emphasis will be placed on development of moisture-resilient buildings, storm-water management, blue-green solutions, mitigation measures for water-triggered landslides, socio-economic incentives and decision-making processes. Both extreme weather and gradual climatic changes will be addressed. The Centre consists of a consortium of 18 partners from three sectors: industry, public entities and research/education organizations. The partners from the industry/private sector include a variety of companies from the building industry. The public entities comprise the most important infrastructure owners in Norway (public roads, railroads, buildings, airports), as well as the directorate for water and energy. The research and education partners are SINTEF Building and Infrastructure, the Norwegian Business School, the Norwegian University of Science and Technology, the Norwegian Meteorological Institute, and the Norwegian Geotechnical Institute. This contribution presents the main research plans and activities of this Centre, which was started in 2015 and will run for 8 years, until 2023. The presentation also includes options for international cooperation in the Centre via PhD and postdoctoral positions, MSc projects and guest-researcher stays with Klima 2050 partners.

  19. Does fertility status influence impulsivity and risk taking in human females? Adaptive influences on intertemporal choice and risky decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaighobadi, Farnaz; Stevens, Jeffrey R

    2013-07-18

    Informed by the research on adaptive decision making in other animal species, this study investigated human females' intertemporal and risky choices across the ovulatory cycle. We tested the hypothesis that at peak fertility, women who are exposed to environments that signal availability of higher quality mates (by viewing images of attractive males), become more impulsive and risk-seeking in economic decision tasks. To test this, we collected intertemporal and risky choice measures before and after exposure to images of either attractive males or neutral landscapes both at peak and low fertility conditions. The results showed an interaction between women's fertility status and image type, such that women at peak fertility viewing images of attractive men chose the smaller, sooner monetary reward option less than women at peak fertility viewing neutral images. Neither fertility status nor image type influenced risky choice. Thus, though exposure to images of men altered intertemporal choices at peak fertility, this occurred in the opposite direction than predicted--i.e., women at peak fertility became less impulsive. Nevertheless, the results of the current study provide evidence for shifts in preferences over the ovulatory cycle and opens future research on economic decision making.

  20. Does Fertility Status Influence Impulsivity and Risk Taking in Human Females? Adaptive Influences on Intertemporal Choice and Risky Decision Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farnaz Kaighobadi

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Informed by the research on adaptive decision making in other animal species, this study investigated human females' intertemporal and risky choices across the ovulatory cycle. We tested the hypothesis that at peak fertility, women who are exposed to environments that signal availability of higher quality mates (by viewing images of attractive males, become more impulsive and risk-seeking in economic decision tasks. To test this, we collected intertemporal and risky choice measures before and after exposure to images of either attractive males or neutral landscapes both at peak and low fertility conditions. The results showed an interaction between women's fertility status and image type, such that women at peak fertility viewing images of attractive men chose the smaller, sooner monetary reward option less than women at peak fertility viewing neutral images. Neither fertility status nor image type influenced risky choice. Thus, though exposure to images of men altered intertemporal choices at peak fertility, this occurred in the opposite direction than predicted—i.e., women at peak fertility became less impulsive. Nevertheless, the results of the current study provide evidence for shifts in preferences over the ovulatory cycle and opens future research on economic decision making.

  1. Studies on adaptive responses in Chinese hamster cells

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Michelin, S.C.; Perez, M.R. Del; Dubner, D.; Gisone, P.A.

    1997-01-01

    For many years the possibility has been considered of low doses of radiation inducing adaptive responses in cells and organisms against the mutagenic effects of radiation. Currently, a number of experimental data appraise the existence of an adaptive response that is characterized by a decrease of radiation induced genetic damages. The understanding of the molecular mechanism involved in this phenomenon permits to estimate the effects and risks of low dose exposure. In this work, preliminary results of studies on the induction of adaptive response in cells subjected to different doses of ionizing radiation are presented

  2. Assessment of Urban Pluvial Flood Risk and Efficiency of Adaptation Options Through Simulations – A New Generation of Urban Planning Tools

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Löwe, Roland; Urich, Christian; Sto. Domingo, Niña Donna Farpale

    2017-01-01

    the possibility to systematically test various flood risk adaptation measures ranging from large infrastructure changes over decentralised water management to urban planning policies. We have tested the framework in a case study in Melbourne, Australia considering 9 scenarios for urban development and climate......-off investments. Urban planning policies proved to be an efficient means for the reduction of flood risk, while implementing property buyback and pipe increases in a guideline-oriented manner was too costly. Random variations in location and time point of urban development could have significant impact on flood......We present a new framework for flexible testing of flood risk adaptation strategies in a variety of urban development and climate scenarios. This framework couples the 1D-2D hydrodynamic simulation package MIKE FLOOD with the agent-based urban development model DAnCE4Water and provides...

  3. Hazard-to-Risk: High-Performance Computing Simulations of Large Earthquake Ground Motions and Building Damage in the Near-Fault Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miah, M.; Rodgers, A. J.; McCallen, D.; Petersson, N. A.; Pitarka, A.

    2017-12-01

    We are running high-performance computing (HPC) simulations of ground motions for large (magnitude, M=6.5-7.0) earthquakes in the near-fault region (steel moment frame buildings throughout the near-fault domain. For ground motions, we are using SW4, a fourth order summation-by-parts finite difference time-domain code running on 10,000-100,000's of cores. Earthquake ruptures are generated using the Graves and Pitarka (2017) method. We validated ground motion intensity measurements against Ground Motion Prediction Equations. We considered two events (M=6.5 and 7.0) for vertical strike-slip ruptures with three-dimensional (3D) basin structures, including stochastic heterogeneity. We have also considered M7.0 scenarios for a Hayward Fault rupture scenario which effects the San Francisco Bay Area and northern California using both 1D and 3D earth structure. Dynamic, inelastic response of canonical buildings is computed with the NEVADA, a nonlinear, finite-deformation finite element code. Canonical buildings include 3-, 9-, 20- and 40-story steel moment frame buildings. Damage potential is tracked by the peak inter-story drift (PID) ratio, which measures the maximum displacement between adjacent floors of the building and is strongly correlated with damage. PID ratios greater 1.0 generally indicate non-linear response and permanent deformation of the structure. We also track roof displacement to identify permanent deformation. PID (damage) for a given earthquake scenario (M, slip distribution, hypocenter) is spatially mapped throughout the SW4 domain with 1-2 km resolution. Results show that in the near fault region building damage is correlated with peak ground velocity (PGV), while farther away (> 20 km) it is better correlated with peak ground acceleration (PGA). We also show how simulated ground motions have peaks in the response spectra that shift to longer periods for larger magnitude events and for locations of forward directivity, as has been reported by

  4. European extra-tropical storm damage risk from a multi-model ensemble of dynamically-downscaled global climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haylock, M. R.

    2011-10-01

    Uncertainty in the return levels of insured loss from European wind storms was quantified using storms derived from twenty-two 25 km regional climate model runs driven by either the ERA40 reanalyses or one of four coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate models. Storms were identified using a model-dependent storm severity index based on daily maximum 10 m wind speed. The wind speed from each model was calibrated to a set of 7 km historical storm wind fields using the 70 storms with the highest severity index in the period 1961-2000, employing a two stage calibration methodology. First, the 25 km daily maximum wind speed was downscaled to the 7 km historical model grid using the 7 km surface roughness length and orography, also adopting an empirical gust parameterisation. Secondly, downscaled wind gusts were statistically scaled to the historical storms to match the geographically-dependent cumulative distribution function of wind gust speed. The calibrated wind fields were run through an operational catastrophe reinsurance risk model to determine the return level of loss to a European population density-derived property portfolio. The risk model produced a 50-yr return level of loss of between 0.025% and 0.056% of the total insured value of the portfolio.

  5. European extra-tropical storm damage risk from a multi-model ensemble of dynamically-downscaled global climate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. R. Haylock

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Uncertainty in the return levels of insured loss from European wind storms was quantified using storms derived from twenty-two 25 km regional climate model runs driven by either the ERA40 reanalyses or one of four coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate models. Storms were identified using a model-dependent storm severity index based on daily maximum 10 m wind speed. The wind speed from each model was calibrated to a set of 7 km historical storm wind fields using the 70 storms with the highest severity index in the period 1961–2000, employing a two stage calibration methodology. First, the 25 km daily maximum wind speed was downscaled to the 7 km historical model grid using the 7 km surface roughness length and orography, also adopting an empirical gust parameterisation. Secondly, downscaled wind gusts were statistically scaled to the historical storms to match the geographically-dependent cumulative distribution function of wind gust speed.

    The calibrated wind fields were run through an operational catastrophe reinsurance risk model to determine the return level of loss to a European population density-derived property portfolio. The risk model produced a 50-yr return level of loss of between 0.025% and 0.056% of the total insured value of the portfolio.

  6. Perceptions of Australian marine protected area managers regarding the role, importance, and achievability of adaptation for managing the risks of climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher Cvitanovic

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The rapid development of adaptation as a mainstream strategy for managing the risks of climate change has led to the emergence of a broad range of adaptation policies and management strategies globally. However, the success of such policies or management interventions depends on the effective integration of new scientific research into the decision-making process. Ineffective communication between scientists and environmental decision makers represents one of the key barriers limiting the integration of science into the decision-making process in many areas of natural resource management. This can be overcome by understanding the perceptions of end users, so as to identify knowledge gaps and develop improved and targeted strategies for communication and engagement. We assessed what one group of environmental decision makers, Australian marine protected area (MPA managers, viewed as the major risks associated with climate change, and their perceptions regarding the role, importance, and achievability of adaptation for managing these risks. We also assessed what these managers perceived as the role of science in managing the risks from climate change, and identified the factors that increased their trust in scientific information. We do so by quantitatively surveying 30 MPA managers across 3 Australian management agencies. We found that although MPA managers have a very strong awareness of the range and severity of risks posed by climate change, their understanding of adaptation as an option for managing these risks is less comprehensive. We also found that although MPA managers view science as a critical source of information for informing the decision-making process, it should be considered in context with other knowledge types such as community and cultural knowledge, and be impartial, evidence based, and pragmatic in outlining policy and management recommendations that are realistically achievable.

  7. Environment-friendly reduction of flood risk and infrastructure damage in a mountain river: Case study of the Czarny Dunajec

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mikuś, Paweł; Wyżga, Bartłomiej; Radecki-Pawlik, Artur; Zawiejska, Joanna; Amirowicz, Antoni; Oglęcki, Paweł

    2016-11-01

    Migration of a mountain river channel may cause erosional risk to infrastructure or settlements on the valley floor. Following a flood of 2010, a cutbank in one of the bends of the main channel of the Czarny Dunajec, Polish Carpathians, approached a local road by 50 m. To arrest the erosion of the laterally migrating channel, water authorities planned construction of a ditch cutting the forested neck of the bend, reinforcement of the ditch banks, and damming the main channel with a boulder groyne. In order to avoid channelization of the highly valued, multithread river reach that would deteriorate its ecological status and cause increased flood risk to downstream reaches, an alternative approach to prevent bank erosion was proposed. The new scheme, applied in 2011, included opening of the inlets to inactive side braids located by the neck of the bend of the main channel. This solution reestablished the flow in the steeper low-flow channels, allowing us to expect a cutoff and abandonment of the main channel during subsequent floods. Gravelly deflectors were constructed directly below the inlets to the reactivated side channels to divert the flow into the channels and prevent the water from entering the main channel. Hydraulic measurements performed before and after the implementation of the scheme confirmed that it enabled shifting the main water current, with the highest average velocity and bed shear stress, from the braid closest to the road to the most distant braid. Similar surveys of fish and benthic macroinvertebrate communities indicated that flow reactivation in the side channels was beneficial for these groups of river biota, increasing their abundance and taxonomic richness in the reach. Not only was the implemented solution significantly less expensive, but it also enhanced ecological functions of the multithread channel and the variability of physical habitat conditions and maintained the role of the reach as a wood debris trap. However, avulsion of the

  8. Health-damaging policing practices among persons who inject drugs in Mexico: Are deported migrants at greater risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinedo, Miguel; Beletsky, Leo; Alamillo, Nathan; Ojeda, Victoria D

    2017-08-01

    Evidence-based public health and criminal justice policies aimed at addressing the structurally vulnerable population of persons who inject drugs (PWID) and who are involved in the immigrant enforcement and deportation system are lacking. Policing practices are critical structural determinants of HIV among PWID. PWID in Mexico who have been deported from the US are at elevated risk of HIV. From 2011 to 2013, 733 PWID were recruited to complete structured questionnaires, including past 6-month experiences with police. Eligible PWID were 18 years or older, had injected in the past month, and resided in Tijuana, Mexico with no intentions of moving. To determine if deportation status was associated with experiences of arrests and problematic policing practices, we conducted separate multivariate logistic regression models for independent policing variables. In multivariate analyses, deportation status was independently associated with higher odds of being arrested (Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR): 1.45; 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.02-2.05), being asked for a bribe (AOR: 1.39; 95% CI: 1.05-2.04), and being forced to leave a place of residence (AOR: 2.00; 95% CI: 1.08-3.70) in the past 6 months. Results highlight a previously poorly understood elements of the US-deportation experience: migrants' experiences with law enforcement post-deportation and the role of deportation policies and practices as structural drivers of public health risk in destination countries. We provide policy recommendations for Mexico and the US based on our findings, which have potential application in other countries seeking to improve enforcement and related policing practices from a public health perspective. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  9. SU-E-J-208: Fast and Accurate Auto-Segmentation of Abdominal Organs at Risk for Online Adaptive Radiotherapy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gupta, V; Wang, Y; Romero, A; Heijmen, B; Hoogeman, M [Erasmus MC Cancer Institute, Rotterdam (Netherlands); Myronenko, A; Jordan, P [Accuray Incorporated, Sunnyvale, United States. (United States)

    2014-06-01

    Purpose: Various studies have demonstrated that online adaptive radiotherapy by real-time re-optimization of the treatment plan can improve organs-at-risk (OARs) sparing in the abdominal region. Its clinical implementation, however, requires fast and accurate auto-segmentation of OARs in CT scans acquired just before each treatment fraction. Autosegmentation is particularly challenging in the abdominal region due to the frequently observed large deformations. We present a clinical validation of a new auto-segmentation method that uses fully automated non-rigid registration for propagating abdominal OAR contours from planning to daily treatment CT scans. Methods: OARs were manually contoured by an expert panel to obtain ground truth contours for repeat CT scans (3 per patient) of 10 patients. For the non-rigid alignment, we used a new non-rigid registration method that estimates the deformation field by optimizing local normalized correlation coefficient with smoothness regularization. This field was used to propagate planning contours to repeat CTs. To quantify the performance of the auto-segmentation, we compared the propagated and ground truth contours using two widely used metrics- Dice coefficient (Dc) and Hausdorff distance (Hd). The proposed method was benchmarked against translation and rigid alignment based auto-segmentation. Results: For all organs, the auto-segmentation performed better than the baseline (translation) with an average processing time of 15 s per fraction CT. The overall improvements ranged from 2% (heart) to 32% (pancreas) in Dc, and 27% (heart) to 62% (spinal cord) in Hd. For liver, kidneys, gall bladder, stomach, spinal cord and heart, Dc above 0.85 was achieved. Duodenum and pancreas were the most challenging organs with both showing relatively larger spreads and medians of 0.79 and 2.1 mm for Dc and Hd, respectively. Conclusion: Based on the achieved accuracy and computational time we conclude that the investigated auto

  10. SU-E-J-208: Fast and Accurate Auto-Segmentation of Abdominal Organs at Risk for Online Adaptive Radiotherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gupta, V; Wang, Y; Romero, A; Heijmen, B; Hoogeman, M; Myronenko, A; Jordan, P

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: Various studies have demonstrated that online adaptive radiotherapy by real-time re-optimization of the treatment plan can improve organs-at-risk (OARs) sparing in the abdominal region. Its clinical implementation, however, requires fast and accurate auto-segmentation of OARs in CT scans acquired just before each treatment fraction. Autosegmentation is particularly challenging in the abdominal region due to the frequently observed large deformations. We present a clinical validation of a new auto-segmentation method that uses fully automated non-rigid registration for propagating abdominal OAR contours from planning to daily treatment CT scans. Methods: OARs were manually contoured by an expert panel to obtain ground truth contours for repeat CT scans (3 per patient) of 10 patients. For the non-rigid alignment, we used a new non-rigid registration method that estimates the deformation field by optimizing local normalized correlation coefficient with smoothness regularization. This field was used to propagate planning contours to repeat CTs. To quantify the performance of the auto-segmentation, we compared the propagated and ground truth contours using two widely used metrics- Dice coefficient (Dc) and Hausdorff distance (Hd). The proposed method was benchmarked against translation and rigid alignment based auto-segmentation. Results: For all organs, the auto-segmentation performed better than the baseline (translation) with an average processing time of 15 s per fraction CT. The overall improvements ranged from 2% (heart) to 32% (pancreas) in Dc, and 27% (heart) to 62% (spinal cord) in Hd. For liver, kidneys, gall bladder, stomach, spinal cord and heart, Dc above 0.85 was achieved. Duodenum and pancreas were the most challenging organs with both showing relatively larger spreads and medians of 0.79 and 2.1 mm for Dc and Hd, respectively. Conclusion: Based on the achieved accuracy and computational time we conclude that the investigated auto

  11. Flood damage: a model for consistent, complete and multipurpose scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menoni, Scira; Molinari, Daniela; Ballio, Francesco; Minucci, Guido; Mejri, Ouejdane; Atun, Funda; Berni, Nicola; Pandolfo, Claudia

    2016-12-01

    Effective flood risk mitigation requires the impacts of flood events to be much better and more reliably known than is currently the case. Available post-flood damage assessments usually supply only a partial vision of the consequences of the floods as they typically respond to the specific needs of a particular stakeholder. Consequently, they generally focus (i) on particular items at risk, (ii) on a certain time window after the occurrence of the flood, (iii) on a specific scale of analysis or (iv) on the analysis of damage only, without an investigation of damage mechanisms and root causes. This paper responds to the necessity of a more integrated interpretation of flood events as the base to address the variety of needs arising after a disaster. In particular, a model is supplied to develop multipurpose complete event scenarios. The model organizes available information after the event according to five logical axes. This way post-flood damage assessments can be developed that (i) are multisectoral, (ii) consider physical as well as functional and systemic damage, (iii) address the spatial scales that are relevant for the event at stake depending on the type of damage that has to be analyzed, i.e., direct, functional and systemic, (iv) consider the temporal evolution of damage and finally (v) allow damage mechanisms and root causes to be understood. All the above features are key for the multi-usability of resulting flood scenarios. The model allows, on the one hand, the rationalization of efforts currently implemented in ex post damage assessments, also with the objective of better programming financial resources that will be needed for these types of events in the future. On the other hand, integrated interpretations of flood events are fundamental to adapting and optimizing flood mitigation strategies on the basis of thorough forensic investigation of each event, as corroborated by the implementation of the model in a case study.

  12. Music to whose ears? The effect of social norms on young people's risk perceptions of hearing damage resulting from their music listening behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilliver, Megan; Carter, Lyndal; Macoun, Denise; Rosen, Jenny; Williams, Warwick

    2012-01-01

    Professional and community concerns about the potentially dangerous noise levels for common leisure activities has led to increased interest on providing hearing health information to participants. However, noise reduction programmes aimed at leisure activities (such as music listening) face a unique difficulty. The noise source that is earmarked for reduction by hearing health professionals is often the same one that is viewed as pleasurable by participants. Furthermore, these activities often exist within a social setting, with additional peer influences that may influence behavior. The current study aimed to gain a better understanding of social-based factors that may influence an individual's motivation to engage in positive hearing health behaviors. Four hundred and eighty-four participants completed questionnaires examining their perceptions of the hearing risk associated with listening to music listening and asking for estimates of their own and their peer's music listening behaviors. Participants were generally aware of the potential risk posed by listening to personal stereo players (PSPs) and the volumes likely to be most dangerous. Approximately one in five participants reported using listening volumes at levels perceived to be dangerous, an incidence rate in keeping with other studies measuring actual PSP use. However, participants showed less awareness of peers' behavior, consistently overestimating the volumes at which they believed their friends listened. Misperceptions of social norms relating to listening behavior may decrease individuals' perceptions of susceptibility to hearing damage. The consequences of hearing health promotion are discussed, along with suggestions relating to the development of new programs.

  13. Melanoma risk: adolescent females' perspectives on skin protection pre/post-viewing a ultraviolet photoaged photograph of their own facial sun damage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eastabrook, Suzette; Chang, Paul; Taylor, Myra F

    2018-03-01

    Suntanning increases skin cancer risk and prematurely ages skin. Photoageing photography is an effective means of increasing adult ultraviolet radiation (UVR) awareness and skin-protection practices. While adults' largely positive suntanning-deterrence responses to photoageing photography are well-documented, comparatively little is known about the deterrence effectiveness of photoageing photography with adolescents. To help fill this knowledge gap, in-depth interviews were collected from 10 adolescent females and were subsequently subjected to interpretive phenomenological analysis. The emergent central theme - Having a tan and looking good in the short-term is okay, however, in the longer-term you can end up looking far worse… but still a tan is worth it - and its component subthemes reveal that the adolescent female's desire for a suntan is largely appearance driven. While photoaged photography is effective in increasing their awareness of the skin damage that UVR exposure causes, it does not alter their suntanning intentions. The analysis also revealed that one of the major barriers to adolescent females' adoption of skin-protective behaviours is their belief in their own invincibility. Hence, skin-protection interventions that lessen the aura of invincibility around adolescent females' understanding of their risk for developing skin cancers are vital to reducing the incidence of malignant melanoma.

  14. The HeartShield device reduces the risk for right ventricular damage in patients with deep sternal wound infection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ingemansson, Richard; Malmsjö, Malin; Lindstedt, Sandra

    2014-01-01

    Right ventricular rupture, resulting in serious bleeding, is a life-threatening complication associated with negative-pressure wound therapy (NPWT) in cardiac surgery. The use of a rigid barrier between the heart and the sharp sternal edges has been successfully tested on pigs. In the present article, we demonstrate increased safety in NPWT through the use of the HeartShield device. Six patients were treated with a specially designed device in combination with NPWT. The device consists of a horizontally placed disk covered in foam. The back of the T-shaped device sticks up between the sternal edges and up above skin level. This part of the device is also covered in foam. Drainage is performed through two holes at the top of the device. The device and foam are changed every second to third day, and -120 mm Hg of continuous therapy is used. Six patients were treated with traditional NPWT, serving as control group. No signs of calluslike formation were seen on the right ventricle in the group treated with the HeartShield device. In the conventional NPWT control group, all six patients had calluslike formation (>1 × 2 cm2) on the anterior part of the right ventricle. All patients in the HeartShield group had grade 1 epicardial petechial bleeding (the right ventricle. In the control group, one patient had grade 1 (2.0 cm2) epicardial petechial bleeding on the right ventricle. No major bleeding or mortality was observed in either group during the course of the study. The use of the HeartShield device significantly minimizes the contact between the right ventricle and the sternal edges, thereby decreasing the risk for life-threatening complications due to bleeding.

  15. Child Functional Independence and Maternal Psychosocial Stress as Risk Factors Threatening Adaptation in Mothers of Physically or Sensorially Handicapped Children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallander, Jan L; And Others

    1990-01-01

    Investigated contribution of child functional independence and maternal psychosocial stress to adaptation of 119 mothers of physically or sensorially handicapped children between the ages of 2 and 18. Child functional independence did not uniquely explain variation in mothers' adaptation. Maternal stress was uniquely associated with maternal…

  16. Climate change adaptation and the social factor; Klimatilpasning og den sociale faktor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kjerulf Petersen, L.; Jensen, Anne; Svalgaard Nielsen, S.

    2009-06-15

    This report addresses the social aspects of climate change adaptation. How do people perceive and relate to climate change adaptation; what risks are associated with climate change, and how are these risks balanced with other risks and concerns of everyday life and long-range choices? The report is based on an explorative study about social aspects of climate change adaptation in Denmark. The issue was investigated through literature studies and interviews with respondents with residence in different parts of Denmark. The study was based on a distinction between climate change mitigation and adaptation and further on an assumption in adaptation policies that some adaptation measures - for economic or practical reasons - will have to be carried out by private citizens and households. This study showed, however, that the distinction between climate change mitigation and adaptation is of little significance for lay people. Moreover, the prospect of climate change does provoke reflections on social values and the need for saving energy, but when it comes to protecting ones own life and property against future damaging effects of climate change the threat seems distant and other forms of home improvement seem more relevant. Nevertheless, some adaptation measures are carried out by single households and local communities. When households experience weather related damages - of a kind that are expected to occur more frequently and with greater force as a result of climate changes - they take action to repair damages and prevent similar damages in the future; at least the kind of action that is easily carried out such as moving valuable goods from the basement or felling a tree. Such measures are, however, not necessarily understood in a context of climate change adaptation; they are rather specific reactions to acute problems. To the extent that a more thorough precautionary adaptation effort is required, also by private citizens, it will have to be performed in

  17. Assessing hazard risk, cost of adaptation and traditional land use activities in the context of permafrost thaw in communities in Yukon and the Northwest Territories, Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benkert, B.; Perrin, A.; Calmels, F.

    2015-12-01

    Together with its partners, the Northern Climate ExChange (NCE, part of the Yukon Research Centre at Yukon College) has been mapping permafrost-related hazard risk in northern communities since 2010. By integrating geoscience and climate project data, we have developed a series of community-scale hazard risk maps. The maps depict hazard risk in stoplight colours for easy interpretation, and support community-based, future-focused adaptation planning. Communities, First Nations, consultants and local regulatory agencies have used the hazard risk maps to site small-scale infrastructure projects, guide land planning processes, and assess suitability of land development applications. However, we know that assessing risk is only one step in integrating the implications of permafrost degradation in societal responses to environmental change. To build on our permafrost hazard risk maps, we are integrating economic principles and traditional land use elements. To assess economic implications of adaptation to permafrost change, we are working with geotechnical engineers to identify adaptation options (e.g., modified building techniques, permafrost thaw mitigation approaches) that suit the risks captured by our existing hazard risk maps. We layer this with an economic analysis of the costs associated with identified adaptation options, providing end-users with a more comprehensive basis upon which to make decisions related to infrastructure. NCE researchers have also integrated traditional land use activities in assessments of permafrost thaw risk, in a project led by Jean Marie River First Nation in the Northwest Territories. Here, the implications of permafrost degradation on food security and land use priorities were assessed by layering key game and gathering areas on permafrost thaw vulnerability maps. Results indicated that close to one quarter of big and small game habitats, and close to twenty percent of key furbearer and gathering areas within the First Nation

  18. Risk assessment and adaptive runoff utilization in water resource system considering the complex relationship among water supply, electricity generation and environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, J.; Zeng, X.; Mo, L.; Chen, L.; Jiang, Z.; Feng, Z.; Yuan, L.; He, Z.

    2017-12-01

    Generally, the adaptive utilization and regulation of runoff in the source region of China's southwest rivers is classified as a typical multi-objective collaborative optimization problem. There are grim competitions and incidence relation in the subsystems of water supply, electricity generation and environment, which leads to a series of complex problems represented by hydrological process variation, blocked electricity output and water environment risk. Mathematically, the difficulties of multi-objective collaborative optimization focus on the description of reciprocal relationships and the establishment of evolving model of adaptive systems. Thus, based on the theory of complex systems science, this project tries to carry out the research from the following aspects: the changing trend of coupled water resource, the covariant factor and driving mechanism, the dynamic evolution law of mutual feedback dynamic process in the supply-generation-environment coupled system, the environmental response and influence mechanism of coupled mutual feedback water resource system, the relationship between leading risk factor and multiple risk based on evolutionary stability and dynamic balance, the transfer mechanism of multiple risk response with the variation of the leading risk factor, the multidimensional coupled feedback system of multiple risk assessment index system and optimized decision theory. Based on the above-mentioned research results, the dynamic method balancing the efficiency of multiple objectives in the coupled feedback system and optimized regulation model of water resources is proposed, and the adaptive scheduling mode considering the internal characteristics and external response of coupled mutual feedback system of water resource is established. In this way, the project can make a contribution to the optimal scheduling theory and methodology of water resource management under uncertainty in the source region of Southwest River.

  19. The provision of aids and adaptations, risk assessments, and incident reporting and recording procedures in relation to injury prevention for adults with intellectual disabilities: cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finlayson, J; Jackson, A; Mantry, D; Morrison, J; Cooper, S-A

    2015-06-01

    Adults with intellectual disabilities (IDs) experience a higher incidence of injury, compared with the general population. The aim of this study was to investigate the provision of aids and adaptations, residential service providers' individual risk assessments and training in these, and injury incident recording and reporting procedures, in relation to injury prevention. Interviews were conducted with a community-based cohort of adults with IDs (n = 511) who live in Greater Glasgow, Scotland, UK and their key carer (n = 446). They were asked about their aids and adaptations at home, and paid carers (n = 228) were asked about individual risk assessments, their training, and incident recording and reporting procedures. Four hundred and twelve (80.6%) of the adults with IDs had at least one aid or adaptation at home to help prevent injury. However, a proportion who might benefit, were not in receipt of them, and surprisingly few had temperature controlled hot water or a bath thermometer in place to help prevent burns/scalds, or kitchen safety equipment to prevent burns/scalds from electric kettles or irons. Fifty-four (23.7%) of the paid carers were not aware of the adult they supported having had any risk assessments, and only 142 (57.9%) had received any training on risk assessments. Considerable variation in incident recording and reporting procedures was evident. More work is needed to better understand, and more fully incorporate, best practice injury prevention measures into routine support planning for adults with IDs within a positive risk-taking and risk reduction framework. © 2014 MENCAP and International Association of the Scientific Study of Intellectual and Developmental Disabilities and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  20. Risk of Performance and Behavioral Health Decrements Due to Inadequate Cooperation, Coordination, Communication, and Psychosocial Adaptation within a Team

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landon, Lauren Blackwell; Vessey, William B.; Barrett, Jamie D.

    2015-01-01

    A team is defined as: "two or more individuals who interact socially and adaptively, have shared or common goals, and hold meaningful task interdependences; it is hierarchically structured and has a limited life span; in it expertise and roles are distributed; and it is embedded within an organization/environmental context that influences and is influenced by ongoing processes and performance outcomes" (Salas, Stagl, Burke, & Goodwin, 2007, p. 189). From the NASA perspective, a team is commonly understood to be a collection of individuals that is assigned to support and achieve a particular mission. Thus, depending on context, this definition can encompass both the spaceflight crew and the individuals and teams in the larger multi-team system who are assigned to support that crew during a mission. The Team Risk outcomes of interest are predominantly performance related, with a secondary emphasis on long-term health; this is somewhat unique in the NASA HRP in that most Risk areas are medically related and primarily focused on long-term health consequences. In many operational environments (e.g., aviation), performance is assessed as the avoidance of errors. However, the research on performance errors is ambiguous. It implies that actions may be dichotomized into "correct" or "incorrect" responses, where incorrect responses or errors are always undesirable. Researchers have argued that this dichotomy is a harmful oversimplification, and it would be more productive to focus on the variability of human performance and how organizations can manage that variability (Hollnagel, Woods, & Leveson, 2006) (Category III1). Two problems occur when focusing on performance errors: 1) the errors are infrequent and, therefore, difficult to observe and record; and 2) the errors do not directly correspond to failure. Research reveals that humans are fairly adept at correcting or compensating for performance errors before such errors result in recognizable or recordable failures

  1. Damage assessment methodology for vehicles exposed to flooding in urban areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Martínez Gomariz

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Urban floods may provoke important damages to vehicles, usually not taken into account within most studies related to urban flood risks damage assessments. Herein a methodology to estimate damages to vehicles exposed to urban floods is presented. After a state-of-the-art review, the most recent damage curves for vehicles developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE, 2009 are presented as the best adaptive and the most comprehensively performed so far. The proposed methodology is applied to the Spanish municipality of Badalona, framed in the H2020 European Project BINGO. In order to conduct this methodology some aspects such as the vehicular distribution are analyzed within the study area. Finally, Expected Annual Damage (EAD for flooded vehicles is calculated based on inundations related to design storms of different return periods (1, 10, 100 and 500 years.

  2. Adaptation to climate change for peace and stability. Strengthening of approaches and instruments as well as promotion of processes to reduce the security risks posed by climate change in the context of climate change adaptation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Taenzler, Dennis; Mohns, Till; Ziegenhagen, Katherina [Adelphi Research, Berlin (Germany)

    2013-10-15

    The findings of the project ''Strengthening of approaches and instruments as well as promotion of processes to reduce the security risks posed by climate change in the context of climate change adaptation'' are summarized in this report. The main objective of the project is to outline the potential contribution of adaptation measures to avoid crisis and conflicts caused or exacerbated by water scarcity, food shortages or extreme weather events. As discussed in the conceptual chapter of the report, adaptation can contribute to peace and stability even in conflict-prone areas given that a conflict-sensitive approach is applied. On the basis of a comprehensive regional analysis, we show that adaptation is not yet a prominent element of regional cooperation. To address this gap, we design three regional adaptation roadmaps for the Andes region, Central and South Asia based on desk review of regional processes and programs as well as expert consultations. To ensure that the results of the projects can be considered in national and international policy processes and to strengthen international governance for adaptation we close with a Memorandum for action outlining major principles to support processes for adaptation and peace. [German] Das Vorhaben ''Entwicklung von Ansaetzen und Instrumenten sowie Foerderung von Prozessen zur Eindaemmung der Sicherheitsrisiken des Klimawandels im Rahmen der Anpassung an den Klimawandel'' untersucht den moeglichen Beitrag, den Massnahmen zur Anpassung an den Klimawandel fuer Frieden und Stabilitaet leisten koennen. Kernanliegen des Vorhabens ist die Vermeidung von durch den Klimawandel erzeugten oder verstaerkten Sicherheitsrisiken wie Wasserknappheit, Nahrungsmittelengpaesse oder extreme Wetterereignisse. Wie die konzeptionelle Eingangsbetrachtung des Endberichts zeigt, koennen Anpassungsprozesse - auch in konfliktgepraegten Gebieten - einen friedensfoerdernden Beitrag leisten, allerdings bedarf es einer konfliktsensitiven Ausrichtung

  3. Adaptation to climate change for peace and stability. Strengthening of approaches and instruments as well as promotion of processes to reduce the security risks posed by climate change in the context of climate change adaptation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Taenzler, Dennis; Mohns, Till; Ziegenhagen, Katherina [Adelphi Research, Berlin (Germany)

    2013-10-15

    The findings of the project ''Strengthening of approaches and instruments as well as promotion of processes to reduce the security risks posed by climate change in the context of climate change adaptation'' are summarized in this report. The main objective of the project is to outline the potential contribution of adaptation measures to avoid crisis and conflicts caused or exacerbated by water scarcity, food shortages or extreme weather events. As discussed in the conceptual chapter of the report, adaptation can contribute to peace and stability even in conflict-prone areas given that a conflict-sensitive approach is applied. On the basis of a comprehensive regional analysis, we show that adaptation is not yet a prominent element of regional cooperation. To address this gap, we design three regional adaptation roadmaps for the Andes region, Central and South Asia based on desk review of regional processes and programs as well as expert consultations. To ensure that the results of the projects can be considered in n