WorldWideScience

Sample records for rising commodity prices

  1. Influence of rising commodity prices on energy policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keppo, I.J.

    2009-04-01

    During the past few years we have first witnessed a rapid increase in the prices of commodities and then later, as a consequence of the economic downturn, an even more drastic drop. Simultaneously with the commodity price increase, an increase in the investment costs of power plants was experienced. The rise in material costs was often stated as one of the reasons for this increase. In this study the relationship between commodity costs and energy prices is studied. A bottom-up approach is used for estimating what kind of an impact increased commodity prices alone could be expected to have on the investment costs on the one hand, and how increased energy prices may affect commodity production costs on the other. The results indicate that although the commodity production costs usually have a fairly large energy component, even high increases in commodity prices, and therefore raw material costs of power plant investments, can not explain the recently experienced hikes in power plant investment costs; a doubling of the costs of the main raw material flows could explain an investment cost increase of some 5-10%, depending on the power plant type. This would seem to indicate that other contributing factors, such as bottlenecks in the production of power plant components, may play an important role in the recent investment cost increase

  2. Land use changes after the period commodities rising price in the Rio Grande do Sul State, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vicente Celestino Pires Silveira

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT: At the end of the 20th and early 21st century, agricultural systems incorporated definitively a new mission: to generate goods for a world population that continues to grow and whose way of life demand food with low environmental impact. Soybean is the main raw material for the production of biodiesel in Brazil, accountably responsible for 82.4% of the total produced between 2006 and 2013. The Brazilian state of Rio Grande do Sul (RS, which is formed by the Pampa and the Atlantic forest biomes, was responsible for 35.7% of the country's biodiesel production in the referred period. The aim of this paper was to verify the impact of the increased area of soybean cultivation in land use in Rio Grande do Sul State, in the period between 1990 and 2015, considering separately its two biomes (Pampa and Atlantic Forest original areas, using both census dataset and satellite images. We used the period from 1990 to 2000 as before commodity rising price (BCRP and the period from 2000 to 2013 as commodity rising price (CRP. The 505,162 ha from Atlantic Forest biome and 1,192,115ha from Pampa biome were added to soybean production in the CRP period. In the Atlantic Forest, this enlargement occurred in the border of the main production area, while in Pampa biome conversion of natural grassland to crop land was the main reason for the large increment in the cultivated area.

  3. Understanding international commodity price fluctuations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Arezki, Rabah; Loungani, Prakash; van der Ploeg, Rick; Venables, Anthony J.

    An overview is provided of recent work on commodity prices, focusing on three themes: (i) "financialization" of commodity markets--commodities being considered by financial investors as a distinct asset class, (ii) trends and forecasts of commodity prices, and (iii) fracking-a shorthand for the

  4. How market structure drives commodity prices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Bin; Wong, K. Y. Michael; Chan, Amos H. M.; So, Tsz Yan; Heimonen, Hermanni; Wei, Junyi; Saad, David

    2017-11-01

    We introduce an agent-based model, in which agents set their prices to maximize profit. At steady state the market self-organizes into three groups: excess producers, consumers and balanced agents, with prices determined by their own resource level and a couple of macroscopic parameters that emerge naturally from the analysis, akin to mean-field parameters in statistical mechanics. When resources are scarce prices rise sharply below a turning point that marks the disappearance of excess producers. To compare the model with real empirical data, we study the relationship between commodity prices and stock-to-use ratios in a range of commodities such as agricultural products and metals. By introducing an elasticity parameter to mitigate noise and long-term changes in commodities data, we confirm the trend of rising prices, provide evidence for turning points, and indicate yield points for less essential commodities.

  5. Statistical field theory of futures commodity prices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baaquie, Belal E.; Yu, Miao

    2018-02-01

    The statistical theory of commodity prices has been formulated by Baaquie (2013). Further empirical studies of single (Baaquie et al., 2015) and multiple commodity prices (Baaquie et al., 2016) have provided strong evidence in support the primary assumptions of the statistical formulation. In this paper, the model for spot prices (Baaquie, 2013) is extended to model futures commodity prices using a statistical field theory of futures commodity prices. The futures prices are modeled as a two dimensional statistical field and a nonlinear Lagrangian is postulated. Empirical studies provide clear evidence in support of the model, with many nontrivial features of the model finding unexpected support from market data.

  6. Commodity Price Fluctuations: A Century of Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Walter Labys

    2005-01-01

    Commodity prices again! The twentieth century has only been the latest spectator to the impacts and importance of commodity price fluctuations. It is reasonably well known that commodity price records have come down to us from the ancient civilizations of India, Mesopotamia, Egypt, Greece and Rome. Earlier in the century, formal research began on the relationships between agricultural demand, supply and prices in a market context. This research not only evolved in sophistication but extended ...

  7. Biofuel and Food-Commodity Prices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Zilberman

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available The paper summarizes key findings of alternative lines of research on the relationship between food and fuel markets, and identifies gaps between two bodies of literature: one that investigates the relationship between food and fuel prices, and another that investigates the impact of the introduction of biofuels on commodity-food prices. The former body of literature suggests that biofuel prices do not affect food-commodity prices, but the latter suggests it does. We try to explain this gap, and then show that although biofuel was an important contributor to the recent food-price inflation of 2001–2008, its effect on food-commodity prices declined after the recession of 2008/09. We also show that the introduction of cross-price elasticity is important when explaining soybean price, but less so when explaining corn prices.

  8. Coal prices rise

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McLean, A.

    2001-01-01

    Coking and semi hard coking coal price agreements had been reached, but, strangely enough, the reaching of common ground on semi soft coking coal, ultra low volatile coal and thermal coal seemed some way off. More of this phenomenon later, but suffice to say that, traditionally, the semi soft and thermal coal prices have fallen into place as soon as the hard, or prime, coking coal prices have been determined. The rise and rise of the popularity of the ultra low volatile coals has seen demand for this type of coal grow almost exponentially. Perhaps one of the most interesting facets of the coking coal settlements announced to date is that the deals appear almost to have been preordained. The extraordinary thing is that the preordination has been at the prescience of the sellers. Traditionally, coking coal price fixing has been the prerogative of the Japanese Steel Mills (JSM) cartel (Nippon, NKK, Kawasaki, Kobe and Sumitomo) who presented a united front to a somewhat disorganised force of predominantly Australian and Canadian sellers. However, by the time JFY 2001 had come round, the rules of the game had changed

  9. FUNGIBILITY AND CONSUMER CHOICE: EVIDENCE FROM COMMODITY PRICE SHOCKS*

    OpenAIRE

    Hastings, Justine S.; Shapiro, Jesse M.

    2013-01-01

    We formulate a test of the fungibility of money based on parallel shifts in the prices of different quality grades of a commodity. We embed the test in a discrete-choice model of product quality choice and estimate the model using panel microdata on gasoline purchases. We find that when gasoline prices rise, consumers substitute to lower octane gasoline, to an extent that cannot be explained by income effects. Across a wide range of specifications, we consistently reject the null hypothesis t...

  10. Expected commodity returns and pricing models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cortazar, Gonzalo; Kovacevic, Ivo; Schwartz, Eduardo S.

    2015-01-01

    Stochastic models of commodity prices have evolved considerably in terms of their structure and the number and interpretation of the state variables that model the underlying risk. Using multiple factors, different specifications and modern estimation techniques, these models have gained wide acceptance because of their success in accurately fitting the observed commodity futures' term structures and their dynamics. It is not well emphasized however that these models, in addition to providing the risk neutral distribution of future spot prices, also provide their true distribution. While the parameters of the risk neutral distribution are estimated more precisely and are usually statistically significant, some of the parameters of the true distribution are typically measured with large errors and are statistically insignificant. In this paper we argue that to increase the reliability of commodity pricing models, and therefore their use by practitioners, some of their parameters — in particular the risk premium parameters — should be obtained from other sources and we show that this can be done without losing any precision in the pricing of futures contracts. We show how the risk premium parameters can be obtained from estimations of expected futures returns and provide alternative procedures for estimating these expected futures returns. - Highlights: • Simple methodology to improve the performance of commodity pricing models • New information about commodity futures expected return is added to the estimation. • No significant effect in pricing futures contracts is observed. • More reliable commodity pricing model's expected returns are obtained. • Methodology is open to any expected futures return model preferred by practitioner

  11. Estimating the commodity market price of risk for energy prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kolos, Sergey P.; Ronn, Ehud I.

    2008-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to estimate the ''market price of risk'' (MPR) for energy commodities, the ratio of expected return to standard deviation. The MPR sign determines whether energy forward prices are upward- or downward-biased predictors of expected spot prices. We estimate MPRs using spot and futures prices, while accounting for the Samuelson effect. We find long-term MPRs generally positive and short-term negative, consistent with positive energy betas and hedging, respectively. In spot electricity markets, MPRs in Day-Ahead Prices agree with short-dated futures. Our results relate risk premia to informed hedging decisions, and futures prices to forecast/expected prices. (author)

  12. The Price of Commodity Risk in Stock and Futures Markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M. Boons (Martijn); F.A. de Roon (Frans); M.K. Szymanowska (Marta)

    2014-01-01

    textabstractWe find that commodity risk is priced in the cross-section of US stock returns. Following the financialization of commodities, investors hedge commodity price risk directly in the futures market, primarily via commodity index investments, whereas before they gained commodity exposure

  13. ASSESSING THE GOVERNANCE FOR COMMODITY PRICE STABILIZATION - A RETROSPECTIVE LOOK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pop Larisa Nicoleta

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The volatility of commodity prices has become once again a matter of profound and controversial debates for both political and academic spheres worldwide in the framework of the global economy severely distressed by the recent economic turbulences. Although commodity markets were already notorious for their price instability, the events the world economy experienced in the years 2000s offered new connotations to this phenomenon. In the first decade of this millennium, the commodity markets have struggled with high volatility, with prices reaching historical peaks just to crash dramatically some months later and very soon to restart their rise. The significant increase in volatility generated many debates about its triggering factors, the implications in terms of risk exposure of economic actors, but also the need for reconfiguring regulatory policy frameworks. The quest for the most appropriate means to deal with commodity price turbulences has known different stages over the years. Decision makers worldwide have sought alternatives, formulated and tested various mechanisms whose central aim was to mitigate price fluctuations. Governments formulate and implement consistent regulatory policies whose international coordination is a ‘sine qua non’ condition for stabilizing these markets. However, the turbulences on commodity markets often generate policy responses that sometimes exacerbate rather than mitigate the price instability. The purpose of this paper is to assess the subject of governance regarding commodity price stabilization, offering a retrospective look at the mechanisms implemented over the years, with a central focus on the International Commodity Agreements – instruments through which in the previous decades the producer and consumer governments worldwide pursued price stabilization for some key commodities like sugar, coffee, cocoa, tin and natural rubber. After analyzing the effectiveness of the International Agreements and

  14. Commodity derivatives pricing with inventory effects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bach, Christian; Dziubinski, Matt P.

    We introduce tractable models for commodity derivatives pricing with inventory and volatility eects, and illustrate with applications to the oil market. We contribute to the existing literature in several respects. First, whereas the previous literature uses futures data for investigating...... the relationship between inventory and volatility, we use the information available in options traded on futures. Second, performance assessment in the previous literature has primarily evolved around explaining moments of data or forecasting prices of futures. Instead, we asses the performance of our model...... by considering both the ability of explaining prices in-sample and out-of-sample - assessing both the pricing-performance and the hedging-performance of the models. Third, we model the futures surface rather than the spot price process, and from the no-arbitrage relationship between spot and futures prices we...

  15. 22 CFR 201.63 - Maximum prices for commodities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... actually incurred in moving the commodities supplied from the point of purchase to a position alongside or... between those points. (g) Commodity price subject to escalation. If a purchase contract contains a price.... prevailing market price—U.S. source. The purchase price for a commodity, the source of which is the United...

  16. Trends and prospects of international major commodity prices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Cartas

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Trends and prospects of international major commodity prices. In 2012, the international commodity markets have seen declining prices, especially during the first half of the year, with some improvement mainly in the last quarter. On the whole, most of major commodity prices declined, following generally weaker demand and the uncertain global economic situation. The short term outlook shows broad declines of prices for all major commodity groups, including oil and excepting metal prices, which are expected to be sustained by the global economic recovery and increasing demand, mainly in China. This country represents a major player, with a great contribution to the movement of prices on most of international commodity markets, as she has a great role in the world consumption and trade of commodities, as well as in the world production of some of these goods, on the one hand, and enjoys huge financial resources, on the other.

  17. Increase of food commodities prices and their relationship with biofuels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ortiz-Alvarez, Marianela; Piloto-Rodríguez, Ramón

    2017-01-01

    Biofuels are without any doubt, an alternative to the actual energy matrix. In this work, through the analysis of the main influencing factors in the increase of food commodities prices, is demonstrated that this phenomena is not exclusive due to biofuels production. Comparing the food commodities prices with biofuels production and petroleum prices respectively, a stronger correlation between food and petroleum prices was observed, demonstrating the strong influence of the conventional energy market on agricultural products. (author)

  18. FUNGIBILITY AND CONSUMER CHOICE: EVIDENCE FROM COMMODITY PRICE SHOCKS*

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hastings, Justine S.; Shapiro, Jesse M.

    2015-01-01

    We formulate a test of the fungibility of money based on parallel shifts in the prices of different quality grades of a commodity. We embed the test in a discrete-choice model of product quality choice and estimate the model using panel microdata on gasoline purchases. We find that when gasoline prices rise consumers substitute to lower octane gasoline, to an extent that cannot be explained by income effects. Across a wide range of specifications, we consistently reject the null hypothesis that households treat “gas money” as fungible with other income. We compare the empirical fit of three psychological models of decision-making. A simple model of category budgeting fits the data well, with models of loss aversion and salience both capturing important features of the time series. PMID:26937053

  19. FUNGIBILITY AND CONSUMER CHOICE: EVIDENCE FROM COMMODITY PRICE SHOCKS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hastings, Justine S; Shapiro, Jesse M

    2013-11-01

    We formulate a test of the fungibility of money based on parallel shifts in the prices of different quality grades of a commodity. We embed the test in a discrete-choice model of product quality choice and estimate the model using panel microdata on gasoline purchases. We find that when gasoline prices rise consumers substitute to lower octane gasoline, to an extent that cannot be explained by income effects. Across a wide range of specifications, we consistently reject the null hypothesis that households treat "gas money" as fungible with other income. We compare the empirical fit of three psychological models of decision-making. A simple model of category budgeting fits the data well, with models of loss aversion and salience both capturing important features of the time series.

  20. Global oil prices, macroeconomic fundamentals and China's commodity sector comovements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Peng

    2015-01-01

    This paper investigates the common movements of commodity sectors in China as well as the economic underpinnings of the comovements. We employ a Bayesian dynamic latent factor model to disentangle the common and idiosyncratic sector-specific factors of the prices of a group of China's commodity sectors: petrochemicals, grains, energy, non-ferrous metals, oils & fats, and softs. The results indicate that the common factor accounts for a significant portion of the fluctuations of China's commodity sectors, providing evidence of the strong commodity sector comovements in China. We further use a VAR model to link the common movements across China's commodity sectors to the underlying determinants, including global oil price shocks and domestic macroeconomic fluctuations. We find that the global oil price shocks have strong effects on the common movements across commodity sectors in China in addition to its domestic macroeconomic fluctuations at long horizons. However, at short horizons, the common movements across commodity sectors in China respond more strongly to the global oil shocks than to its domestic macroeconomic fluctuations. - Highlights: • We examine the comovements of commodity prices at the industry level in China. • The common factor accounts for a significant portion of commodity sector fluctuations. • We investigate the joint impacts of global oil price shocks and domestic macro fluctuations on the comovements. • The global oil price shocks have persistent and strong effects on the comovements. • The impacts of domestic macro fluctuations on the comovements differ at short and long horizons.

  1. Rising prices squeeze gas marketer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lunan, D.

    2000-06-19

    Apollo Gas, a Toronto-based gas marketer, is considering options to enhance unit holder value, including sale of its 21,000 gas supply contracts, just weeks after it was forced out of the Alberta market by rising gas prices. Although the company had reported first quarter revenues of more than $15 million and earnings through that period of about $2.1 million, increases of 33 per cent and 38 per cent respectively over the same period in 1999, the company is resigned to the fact that such performance markers are not likely to be reached again in the foreseeable future, hence the decision to sell. About 95 per cent of Apollo's current transportation service volumes are matched to existing fixed-price supply contract which are due to expire in November 2000. After that, it is about 75 per cent matched for the balance of the term of its customer contracts (mostly five years). This means that the company is exposed to market prices that are likely to continue to increase. If this prediction holds true, Apollo would be forced to purchase the unhedged volumes of gas it needs to service its customers in the spot market at prices higher than prices the company is charging to its customers.

  2. Rising prices squeeze gas marketer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lunan, D.

    2000-01-01

    Apollo Gas, a Toronto-based gas marketer, is considering options to enhance unit holder value, including sale of its 21,000 gas supply contracts, just weeks after it was forced out of the Alberta market by rising gas prices. Although the company had reported first quarter revenues of more than $15 million and earnings through that period of about $2.1 million, increases of 33 per cent and 38 per cent respectively over the same period in 1999, the company is resigned to the fact that such performance markers are not likely to be reached again in the foreseeable future, hence the decision to sell. About 95 per cent of Apollo's current transportation service volumes are matched to existing fixed-price supply contract which are due to expire in November 2000. After that, it is about 75 per cent matched for the balance of the term of its customer contracts (mostly five years). This means that the company is exposed to market prices that are likely to continue to increase. If this prediction holds true, Apollo would be forced to purchase the unhedged volumes of gas it needs to service its customers in the spot market at prices higher than prices the company is charging to its customers

  3. World oil and agricultural commodity prices: Evidence from nonlinear causality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nazlioglu, Saban

    2011-01-01

    The increasing co-movements between the world oil and agricultural commodity prices have renewed interest in determining price transmission from oil prices to those of agricultural commodities. This study extends the literature on the oil-agricultural commodity prices nexus, which particularly concentrates on nonlinear causal relationships between the world oil and three key agricultural commodity prices (corn, soybeans, and wheat). To this end, the linear causality approach of Toda-Yamamoto and the nonparametric causality method of Diks-Panchenko are applied to the weekly data spanning from 1994 to 2010. The linear causality analysis indicates that the oil prices and the agricultural commodity prices do not influence each other, which supports evidence on the neutrality hypothesis. In contrast, the nonlinear causality analysis shows that: (i) there are nonlinear feedbacks between the oil and the agricultural prices, and (ii) there is a persistent unidirectional nonlinear causality running from the oil prices to the corn and to the soybeans prices. The findings from the nonlinear causality analysis therefore provide clues for better understanding the recent dynamics of the agricultural commodity prices and some policy implications for policy makers, farmers, and global investors. This study also suggests the directions for future studies. - Research highlights: → This study determines the price transmission mechanisms between the world oil and three key agricultural commodity prices (corn, soybeans, and wheat). → The linear and nonlinear cointegration and causality methods are carried out. → The linear causality analysis supports evidence on the neutrality hypothesis. → The nonlinear causality analysis shows that there is a persistent unidirectional causality from the oil prices to the corn and to the soybeans prices.

  4. Price formation and transmission along the food commodity chain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivana Blažková

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The article is focused on analysis of price transmission along the wheat commodity chain in the Czech Republic, with the distinction on wheat products with low value added (wheat flour, respectively high value added (wheat rolls. The degree of vertical price transmission is measured to identify potential market failures, because asymmetric price transmission can be the result of existence of market power within the food commodity chain. The data basis is made up from monthly prices on partial markets of the analyzed commodity chain published by Czech Statistical Office and Ministry of Agriculture of the Czech Republic. The monitored time period is from January 2000 till October 2009. The analysis is based on calculation of the price transmission elasticity coefficient (evaluation of price transmission along the chain and the intensity of dependency of positive and negative inter-market price differences (evaluation whether positive or negative price changes are better transmitted among particular vertical markets. Time lag is tested as well. The assessment of price transmission along the wheat commodity chain confirmed the existence of market power especially on the retail stage and low impact of price changes of farm prices on final consumer food prices.

  5. Stationarity changes in long-run energy commodity prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zaklan, Aleksandar; Abrell, Jan; Neumann, Anne

    2016-01-01

    Situated at the intersection of the literatures on speculative storage and non-renewable commodity scarcity, this paper considers whether changes in persistence have occurred in long-run U.S. prices of the energy commodities crude oil, natural gas and bituminous coal. We allow for a structural break when testing for a break in persistence to avoid a change in the stochastic properties of prices being confounded by an unaccounted-for deterministic shift in the price series. We find that coal prices are trend stationary throughout their evolution and that oil prices change from stationarity to non-stationarity in the decade between the late 1960s to late 1970s. The result on gas prices is ambiguous. Our results demonstrate the importance of accounting for a possible structural shift when testing for breaks in persistence, while being robust to the exact date of the structural break. Based on our analysis we caution against viewing long-run energy commodity prices as being non-stationary and conclude in favor of modeling commodity market fundamentals as stationary, meaning that speculative storage will tend to have a dampening effect on prices. We also cannot reject that long-run prices of coal and, with some hesitation, gas follow a Hotelling-type rule. In contrast, we reject the Hotelling rule for oil prices since the late 1960s/early 1970s. - Highlights: • This paper contributes to the literatures on speculative storage and scarcity. • We test if long-run U.S. coal, oil and gas prices became non-stationary. • We pre-test for structural breaks when testing for changes in persistence. • Coal prices are found to be trend stationary, oil prices become non-stationary. • We caution against modeling commodity market fundamentals as non-stationary.

  6. Energy prices and agricultural commodity prices: Testing correlation using copulas method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koirala, Krishna H.; Mishra, Ashok K.; D'Antoni, Jeremy M.; Mehlhorn, Joey E.

    2015-01-01

    The linear relationships between energy prices and prices for agricultural commodities such as corn and soybeans may have been affected, over the last several years, by policy legislations in the farm sector, the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007, and the Renewable Fuel Standard Program for 2014. Using high-frequency data and newer methodology, this study investigates dependence between agricultural commodity futures prices and energy futures prices. Results reveal that agricultural commodity and energy future prices are highly correlated and exhibit positive and significant relationship. Findings from this study highlight that an increase in energy price increases the price of agricultural commodities. - Highlights: • Energy policy mandates production of 15 billion gallons of corn ethanol by 2015. • Energy-intensive agriculture has a link between energy sector and crop production costs. • We investigate correlation between energy prices and agricultural commodity prices. • Agricultural commodity and energy future prices are highly correlated. • Increase in energy price increases the price of agricultural commodity

  7. Statistical microeconomics and commodity prices: theory and empirical results.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baaquie, Belal E

    2016-01-13

    A review is made of the statistical generalization of microeconomics by Baaquie (Baaquie 2013 Phys. A 392, 4400-4416. (doi:10.1016/j.physa.2013.05.008)), where the market price of every traded commodity, at each instant of time, is considered to be an independent random variable. The dynamics of commodity market prices is given by the unequal time correlation function and is modelled by the Feynman path integral based on an action functional. The correlation functions of the model are defined using the path integral. The existence of the action functional for commodity prices that was postulated to exist in Baaquie (Baaquie 2013 Phys. A 392, 4400-4416. (doi:10.1016/j.physa.2013.05.008)) has been empirically ascertained in Baaquie et al. (Baaquie et al. 2015 Phys. A 428, 19-37. (doi:10.1016/j.physa.2015.02.030)). The model's action functionals for different commodities has been empirically determined and calibrated using the unequal time correlation functions of the market commodity prices using a perturbation expansion (Baaquie et al. 2015 Phys. A 428, 19-37. (doi:10.1016/j.physa.2015.02.030)). Nine commodities drawn from the energy, metal and grain sectors are empirically studied and their auto-correlation for up to 300 days is described by the model to an accuracy of R(2)>0.90-using only six parameters. © 2015 The Author(s).

  8. PRICE GENERATING PROCESS AND VOLATILITY IN NIGERIAN AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES MARKET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Osaihiomwan Ojogho

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The literature on agricultural commodity price volatility in Nigeria has constantly reflected that an excessive price movement is harmful for both producers and consumers, particularly for those who are not able to cope with that new source of economic uncertainty. It has also raised an extensive debate on the main determinants behind the large agricultural commodity price swings observed in the last years without recourse for the price generating process. To narrow this gap, the study examined the price generating process and volatility in the Nigerian agricultural commodities market using secondary data for price series on meat, cereals, sugar, dairy and aggregate food for the period of January 1990 to February 2014. The data were analysed using the linear Gaussian State-Space (SS model. The results of the descriptive statistics showed that the coefficients of variation for cereals (39.88%, food (32.65% and dairy price (43.08% were respectively higher during the overall time period (January 1990 to February 2014 than during the first (January 1990 to January 2002 and second (February 2002 to February 2014 sub-time periods. The results of the inferential statistics showed that authoregressive moving average (ARMA model is the most selected Nigeria agricultural commodity price generating model for the time periods, that a unit increase in the past price state of cereals, dairy, sugar, meat and aggregate food would increase the future price of sugar, meat and aggregate food by N0.14, N0.28 and N0.15 respectively but decrease future price of cereals and dairy by about N1.00 and N0.21 respectively, and that the one-step ahead predicted value for the first out-ofsample period for cereals, meat, dairy and sugar price were 6317.86, 10.24 and 2.06 respectively. The Nigerian agricultural commodity prices have experienced high variability over the period, and such volatility, price-generating process and the determinants of the Nigerian food commodities

  9. Rise of energy price, rise of agricultural prices: what medium- and long-term relations and implications?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Voituriez, T.

    2009-01-01

    We review in this study the different factors which have been presented by the scientific community as possible explanations of the sudden upsurge in commodity prices between 2006 and 2008. We examine whether scientific evidence validates any causal relationship, and particularly emphasize the role of explanatory variables underpinning the co-movement of energy and food price rises. Our aim is to provide an up-to-date understanding of food and energy market relationships, so as to better anticipate the possible changes in the evolution of prices in the coming years. (author)

  10. Monetary Policy, Commodity Prices and Infl ation – Empirical Evidence from the US

    OpenAIRE

    Verheyen, Florian

    2010-01-01

    The past years were characterized by unprecedented rises in prices of commodities such as oil or wheat and inflation rates moved up above the mark of two percent per annum. This led to a revival of the debate whether commodity prices indicate future CPI inflation and if they can be used as indicator variables for central banks or not. We apply various econometric methods like Granger causality tests and SVAR models to US data. The results corroborate the notion that there was a strong link be...

  11. Do Exchange Rates Really Help Forecasting Commodity Prices?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bork, Lasse; Kaltwasser, Pablo Rovira; Sercu, Piet

    Chen et al. (2010) report that for ‘commodity currencies’, the exchange rate predicts the country’s commodity index but not vice versa. The commodity currency hypothesis is consistent with the Engle and West (2005) exchange rate model if the fundamental is chosen to be the country’s key export...... expectations, one should mostly observe contemporaneous correlations, not one-directional cross-predictability from one variable toward the other. Using three different data sets and various econometric techniques, we do find the contemporaneous correlations as predicted by the financial asset view......-averaged prices in the commodity index data that they use (price averaging induces spurious autocorrelation and predictability) and to features in their test procedures....

  12. Estimating the Competitive Storage Model with Trending Commodity Prices

    OpenAIRE

    Gouel , Christophe; LEGRAND , Nicolas

    2017-01-01

    We present a method to estimate jointly the parameters of a standard commodity storage model and the parameters characterizing the trend in commodity prices. This procedure allows the influence of a possible trend to be removed without restricting the model specification, and allows model and trend selection based on statistical criteria. The trend is modeled deterministically using linear or cubic spline functions of time. The results show that storage models with trend are always preferred ...

  13. Analysis of commodity prices with the particle filter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aiube, Fernando Antonio Lucena; Baidya, Tara Keshar Nanda; Tito, Edison Americo Huarsaya

    2008-01-01

    The behavior of commodities prices is fundamental to real-asset investment decisions, hedging, and pricing financial derivatives. Schwartz and Smith [Schwartz, E.S., Smith, J.E. (2000). Short term-variations and long-term dynamics in commodity prices. Management Science, 46, 893-911.] proposed a two-factor model for describing the stochastic processes of commodity prices, in which the two factors are short-term variations and equilibrium prices. These are both unobserved state variables that are estimated using the Kalman filter. The estimation is based on the observation of future prices for different maturities. The authors have carried out this process without incorporating jumps in the short-term variation of prices. Here we aim to demonstrate that the inclusion of jumps better explains the behavior of oil prices, and in fact creates difficulties in the estimation of state variables. This is because the variables become non-Gaussian so the Kalman filter is not recommended. Another methodology, called the particle filter, is more suitable in this case, and we describe its application in this article

  14. Budget Constraints Affect Male Rats’ Choices between Differently Priced Commodities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalenscher, Tobias

    2015-01-01

    Demand theory can be applied to analyse how a human or animal consumer changes her selection of commodities within a certain budget in response to changes in price of those commodities. This change in consumption assessed over a range of prices is defined as demand elasticity. Previously, income-compensated and income-uncompensated price changes have been investigated using human and animal consumers, as demand theory predicts different elasticities for both conditions. However, in these studies, demand elasticity was only evaluated over the entirety of choices made from a budget. As compensating budgets changes the number of attainable commodities relative to uncompensated conditions, and thus the number of choices, it remained unclear whether budget compensation has a trivial effect on demand elasticity by simply sampling from a different total number of choices or has a direct effect on consumers’ sequential choice structure. If the budget context independently changes choices between commodities over and above price effects, this should become apparent when demand elasticity is assessed over choice sets of any reasonable size that are matched in choice opportunities between budget conditions. To gain more detailed insight in the sequential choice dynamics underlying differences in demand elasticity between budget conditions, we trained N=8 rat consumers to spend a daily budget by making a number of nosepokes to obtain two liquid commodities under different price regimes, in sessions with and without budget compensation. We confirmed that demand elasticity for both commodities differed between compensated and uncompensated budget conditions, also when the number of choices considered was matched, and showed that these elasticity differences emerge early in the sessions. These differences in demand elasticity were driven by a higher choice rate and an increased reselection bias for the preferred commodity in compensated compared to uncompensated budget

  15. Budget Constraints Affect Male Rats' Choices between Differently Priced Commodities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Wingerden, Marijn; Marx, Christine; Kalenscher, Tobias

    2015-01-01

    Demand theory can be applied to analyse how a human or animal consumer changes her selection of commodities within a certain budget in response to changes in price of those commodities. This change in consumption assessed over a range of prices is defined as demand elasticity. Previously, income-compensated and income-uncompensated price changes have been investigated using human and animal consumers, as demand theory predicts different elasticities for both conditions. However, in these studies, demand elasticity was only evaluated over the entirety of choices made from a budget. As compensating budgets changes the number of attainable commodities relative to uncompensated conditions, and thus the number of choices, it remained unclear whether budget compensation has a trivial effect on demand elasticity by simply sampling from a different total number of choices or has a direct effect on consumers' sequential choice structure. If the budget context independently changes choices between commodities over and above price effects, this should become apparent when demand elasticity is assessed over choice sets of any reasonable size that are matched in choice opportunities between budget conditions. To gain more detailed insight in the sequential choice dynamics underlying differences in demand elasticity between budget conditions, we trained N=8 rat consumers to spend a daily budget by making a number of nosepokes to obtain two liquid commodities under different price regimes, in sessions with and without budget compensation. We confirmed that demand elasticity for both commodities differed between compensated and uncompensated budget conditions, also when the number of choices considered was matched, and showed that these elasticity differences emerge early in the sessions. These differences in demand elasticity were driven by a higher choice rate and an increased reselection bias for the preferred commodity in compensated compared to uncompensated budget conditions

  16. Logistics: Price Rises Incurred by High Oil Price

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Lai Zhihui

    2011-01-01

    @@ "When the oil price grows by 100%, the logistic indus-try will see a price growth of 40%, while the logistics in-dustry a price rise of 35%, which means every price increase of 5% in the oil price will bring along that of 2% in this industry." said Liu Zongsheng, General Manager of Itochu Logistics Co., Ltd., on the seminar "Focusing on the eco-nomic consequences of raising oil price, interest rate and deposit reserve ratio", which was held recently.

  17. Market Structure and Price Transmission of Eggs Commodity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdul Aziz Ahmad

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Purposes of this research are to determine some characteristics of distribution channel, market structure, and price maker transmission in purebred chicken egg commodity in Banyumas District, Central Java Province. Primary data applied on this research is from all channel distribution levels; from producers to final consumers. Meanwhile secondary data is collected from government official sources, such as BPS-Statistic of Banyumas Disrict, Banyumas Department of Industry, Trading and Cooperation, and previous researches which has been made by researcher team. Sample determining is directed by proportional random sampling methods. Some measurements are applied to this research, including to; Herfindahl Index (HI, Concentration Ratio (CF, and Minimum Efficiency Scale (MES to investigate market structure; and Asymmetric Price Transmission (APT to determine price transmission mechanism model. This research finds that (1 the distribution channel of egg commodity is spitted to different channel, the first channel: egg producer – retail traders – final consumers, and second channel: egg producers – whole seller – retail traders – final consumers; (2 market structure which is created to this farming specific commodity is perfect market; (3 price transmission mechanism analysis statistically shows that there is almost no existence of dominant power in price formation.

  18. The economic consequences of oil price rise

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lescaroux, Francois

    2006-05-01

    The author discusses the possible consequences of oil barrel price rise. First, he discusses the main results of analysis's which have been performed for thirty years regarding the impact of oil price on economical activity. He proposes interpretations of these studies and of their conclusions, and tries to draw lessons regarding effects which can be expected from the recent evolutions of energy markets

  19. Optimal Nonlinear Pricing, Bundling Commodities and Contingent Services

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Podesta, Marion; Poudou, Jean-Christophe

    2008-01-01

    In this paper, we propose to analyze optimal nonlinear pricing when a firm offers in a bundle a commodity and a contingent service. The paper studies a mechanism design where all private information can be captured in a single scalar variable in a monopoly context. We show that to propose the package for commodity and service is less costly for the consumer, the firm has lower consumers' rent than the situation where it sells their good and contingent service under an independent pricing strategy. In fact, the possibility to use price discrimination via the supply of package is dominated by the fact that it is costly for the consumer to sign two contracts. Bundling energy and a contingent service is a profitable strategy for a energetician monopoly practising optimal nonlinear tariff. We show that the rates of the energy and the contingent service depend to the optional character of the contingent service and depend to the degree of complementarity between commodities and services. (authors)

  20. The economic consequences of rising oil prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lescaroux, F.

    2006-05-01

    In the context of rising crude oil prices observed in the last five years, this paper attempts to shed light on the possible consequences of a costlier barrel. We shall begin with a brief presentation of the main results of the analyses conducted in the last 30 years, concerning the impact of energy prices on economic activity. We shall then interpret these analyses and their conclusions, and try to draw a number of lessons about the anticipated effects of the recent trend in energy prices. (author)

  1. 22 CFR 201.64 - Application of the price rules to commodities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    .... 201.64 Section 201.64 Foreign Relations AGENCY FOR INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT RULES AND PROCEDURES... purchase price of a commodity exceeds the price in comparable export sales or in comparable domestic sales... the determination of any prevailing market price of any commodity or any prevailing price or maximum...

  2. The crucial relationship among energy commodity prices: Evidence from the Spanish electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moutinho, Victor; Vieira, Joel; Carrizo Moreira, Antonio

    2011-01-01

    The main purpose of this article is twofold to analyze: (a) the long-term relation among the commodities prices and between spot electricity market price and commodity prices, and (b) the short-term dynamics among commodity prices and between electricity prices and commodity prices. Data between 2002 and 2005 from the Spanish electricity market was used. Econometric methods were used in the analysis of the commodity spot price, namely the vector autoregression model, the vector error correction model and the granger causality test. The co-integration approach was used to analyze the long-term relationship between the common stochastic trends of four fossil fuel prices. One of the findings in the long-term relation is that the prices of fuel and the prices of Brent are intertwined, though the prices of Brent ten to 'move' to reestablish the price equilibrium. Another finding is that the price of electricity is explained by the evolution of the natural gas series. - Highlights: → We model energy commodity prices in the Spanish electricity market. → We examine the short and long-term relationships among commodities prices. → We examine short and long-term relationships using co-integration techniques. → We found that in the long run the prices of fuel and Brent are intertwined. → The evolution of price of electricity is explained by the evolution of price of gas.

  3. Boom or bust : developing countries' rough ride on the commodity price rollercoaster

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brown, O.; Gibson, J.

    2006-10-01

    Current high commodity prices are driven by strong demand from the emerging economies of China and India in addition to high consumption in the United States. Many developing countries are experiencing massive windfall revenues from high commodity prices. However, commodity prices are highly volatile in the short term, and can vary as much as 50 per cent in a single year. While developed country producers are supported by subsidies and social safety nets, developing countries and smallholder producers feel the extent of commodity price volatility more directly. Many developing countries are becoming locked into the production and export of primary commodities whose volatile prices are declining over the long term, and over which they have very little control. Price volatility makes sound fiscal planning difficult for both countries and producers. Price booms and busts also drive social inequalities, livelihood inequalities, and corruption. Price swings can cause conflict over valuable land and resources, and does not create incentives for sound environmental stewardship. This paper described the impacts of commodity price volatility in developing countries with the aim of promoting discussion about what can be done to help stabilize revenues for countries as well as producers. Price trends and their importance were reviewed, and the theoretical benefits of liberalized commodity markets were examined. Previous attempts to stabilize commodity prices were reviewed. It was concluded that the best long-term solution to the commodity price problem is economic diversification. Recommendations for promoting economic diversification were provided. 43 refs., 1 tab., 2 figs

  4. Rise of oil prices and energy policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2005-01-01

    This document reprints the talk of the press conference given by D. de Villepin, French prime minister, on August 16, 2005 about the alarming rise of oil prices. In his talk, the prime minister explains the reasons of the crisis (increase of worldwide consumption, political tensions in the Middle East..) and presents the strategy and main trends of the French energy policy: re-launching of energy investments in petroleum refining capacities and in the nuclear domain (new generation of power plants), development of renewable energy sources and in particular biofuels, re-launching of the energy saving policy thanks to financial incentives and to the development of clean vehicles and mass transportation systems. In a second part, the prime minister presents his policy of retro-cession of petroleum tax profits to low income workers, and of charge abatement to professionals having an occupation strongly penalized by the rise of oil prices (truckers, farmers, fishermen, taxi drivers). (J.S.)

  5. The Impact of Trade Policies on Spiraling Prices in International Agricultural Commodity Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Agnes Ghibuțiu

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Since the mid-2000s food prices have been on an upward trend. In the first months of 2011, agricultural commodity prices reached an all-time high, fuelling fears about the imminent outbreak of a new food crisis, similar to the 1973/74 and 2006/08 ones. Behind concerns about increased price levels and volatility in international agricultural commodity markets lie concerns about food security. Hence, the international community is now under pressure to urgently find solutions for tempering strong upward fluctuations in prices for many major food commodities. Trade policy changes are increasingly discussed as a major contributing factor to food price surges. This paper addresses some issues related to the recurrent global food crises from the perspective of trade policy, specifically export restrictions. After a brief review of the fundamental drivers of the upward trend in real food prices (rising global population and income, climate change, high oil prices, increasing cereal use for biofuel production, and financial speculation, it examines the upsurge in agricultural export restrictions over the recent years. Relying on WTO's trade policy monitoring exercise, it highlights typology, motivations and effects of the newly introduced export restrictions, and finds that a major factor behind their recent proliferation is the lack of effective and binding multilateral rules concerning these trade policy instruments. The paper argues that strenghtening and improving WTO's rules and disciplines is essential for mitigating increased price pressure and volatility as well as the associated food security risks. While the issue of export restrictions is currently the topic of discussions under the Doha Round, trade negotiations are in impasse since 2008. Hence, urgent and successful conclusion of the round would be an essential step. In the meanwhile, a closer regular monitoring of all forms of export restrictions would help to provide at least more

  6. International commodity prices and civil war outbreak: new evidence for Sub-Saharan Africa and beyond

    OpenAIRE

    Ciccone, Antonio

    2018-01-01

    A new dataset by Bazzi and Blattman (2014) allows examining the effects of international commodity prices on the risk of civil war outbreak with more comprehensive data. I find that international commodity price downturns sparked civil wars in Sub-Saharan Africa. Another finding with the new dataset is that commodity price downturns also sparked civil wars beyond Sub-Saharan Africa since 1980. Effects are sizable relative to the baseline risk of civil war outbreak. My conclusions contrast wit...

  7. On the link between oil and commodity prices: a panel VAR approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bremond, Vincent; Hache, Emmanuel; Joets, Marc

    2013-12-01

    The aim of this paper is to study the relationships between the price of oil and a large dataset of commodity prices, relying on panel data settings. Using second generation panel co-integration tests, our findings show that the WTI and commodity prices are not linked in the long term. Nevertheless, considering our results in causality tests, we show that short-run relations exist, mainly from the price of crude oil to commodity prices. We thus implement a panel VAR estimation with an impulse response function analysis. Two main conclusions emerge: (i) fast co-movements are highlighted, while (ii) market efficiency is emphasized. (authors)

  8. Exchange Market Pressure, Stock Prices, and Commodity Prices East of the Euro

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Scott W. Hegerty

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Aim/purpose - This paper aims to examine connections between the exchange, equity, commodity and commodity markets of a set of Central and Eastern European (CEE economies using monthly time-series data. In particular, we examine whether stock - or commodity - price changes might put pressure on these currencies to depreciate, and whether these pressures are transmitted within the region or from larger neighbors. Design/methodology/approach - This paper creates monthly indices of Ex-change Market Pressure (EMP from 1998 to 2017 using a combination of currency depreciation, reserve losses, and changes in interest-rate differentials for the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Ukraine, Bulgaria, and Romania. After examining these indices for evidence of currency 'crises', and their components for evidence of changes in currency policy, Vector Autoregressive (VAR methods such as Granger causality and impulse-response functions are used to examine connections between EMP, domestic and foreign stock returns, and changes in commodity prices in the first four countries listed. Findings - While EMP increased in 2008, and the degree of central banks' currency- -market interventions decreased afterward, this paper uncovers key differences among countries. In particular, the Czech Republic is relatively insulated from international transmissions, while Hungary is more susceptible to global spillovers and Poland is exposed to events originating elsewhere in the CEE region. Ukraine shows bidirectional causality between its EMP and stock indices, and finds that pressure on the hryvnia increases if commodity or oil prices decline. Research implications/limitations - This study adds to the relatively limited literature regarding this region, and highlights particular vulnerabilities for both individual countries and specific neighbors; further research is necessary to uncover the channels of transmission using economic modeling. Originality

  9. Modelling the rand and commodity prices: A Granger causality and cointegration analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xolani Ndlovu

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the ‘commodity currency’ hypothesis of the Rand, that is, the postulate that the currency moves in line with commodity prices, and analyses the associated causality using nominal data between 1996 and 2010. We address both the short run and long run relationship between commodity prices and exchange rates. We find that while the levels of the series of both assets are difference stationary, they are not cointegrated. Further, we find the two variables are negatively related, with strong and significant causality running from commodity prices to the exchange rate and not vice versa, implying exogeneity in the determination of commodity prices with respect to the nominal exchange rate. The strength of the relationship is significantly weaker than other OECD commodity currencies. We surmise that the relationship is dynamic over time owing to the portfolio-rebalance argument and the Commodity Terms of Trade (CTT effect and, in the absence of an error correction mechanism, this disconnect may be prolonged. For commodity and currency market participants, this implies that while futures and forward commodity prices may be useful leading indicators of future currency movements, the price risk management strategies may need to be recalibrated over time.

  10. Determinants of prices increase of agricultural commodities in a global context1

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Borychowski Michał

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The main objective of this article is to present the determinants of increase in agricultural commodity prices after 2006. The other specific aim is to show the factors affecting agricultural raw materials and food prices in the global context. This article is a review paper of the determinants of recent commodity and food prices spikes. However, it provides an outlook on these determinants that were the most important for the increases in the last decade. The last part of the article (conclusions to some extent is a synthesis of considerations and includes the authors’ opinions concerning determinants and an attempt to identify which ones were the most important in the growth of agricultural commodity prices. These increases in agricultural commodity prices resulted from many factors and it is very difficult to separate the individual impact of each of them, because they occurred in parallel. However, it is possible to indicate several main reasons for these price increases, which are: adverse changes in supply-demand relations in agricultural markets, increases in oil prices (and increases of the volatility of those prices, development of biofuel production from agricultural commodities (the first generation biofuels, dollar depreciation, an increase in operations of a speculative nature on commodity markets and improper economic policy that created an environment for the growth of prices of agricultural products.

  11. Mitigation potential and global health impacts from emissions pricing of food commodities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Springmann, Marco; Mason-D'Croz, Daniel; Robinson, Sherman; Wiebe, Keith; Godfray, H. Charles J.; Rayner, Mike; Scarborough, Peter

    2017-01-01

    The projected rise in food-related greenhouse gas emissions could seriously impede efforts to limit global warming to acceptable levels. Despite that, food production and consumption have long been excluded from climate policies, in part due to concerns about the potential impact on food security. Using a coupled agriculture and health modelling framework, we show that the global climate change mitigation potential of emissions pricing of food commodities could be substantial, and that levying greenhouse gas taxes on food commodities could, if appropriately designed, be a health-promoting climate policy in high-income countries, as well as in most low- and middle-income countries. Sparing food groups known to be beneficial for health from taxation, selectively compensating for income losses associated with tax-related price increases, and using a portion of tax revenues for health promotion are potential policy options that could help avert most of the negative health impacts experienced by vulnerable groups, whilst still promoting changes towards diets which are more environmentally sustainable.

  12. The Character of Price Transmission Within Milk Commodity Chain in the Czech Republic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barbora Dudová

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The article is focused on price transmission within milk commodity chain in the Czech Republic. The article distinct on milk products with low value added – cow milk/paper box milk and products with higher value added – cow milk/butter. Price transmission is measured by the coefficient of elasticity of the price transmission (EPT; price transfer is examined in demand as well as supply direction. Next part of the analysis measures price differences (by coefficient determination – R2 in supply direction. Last step in this analysis is the impact of time delay at the price transmission process (measured by R2. The price transmission is asymmetric in the supply direction on both parts of commodity chain (EPT = 0.29 and 0.62, in the demand direction is more symmetric (EPT = 0.31 and 1.02. The assumption of better transfer of positive price changes was confirmed. At the commodity chain of milk/dairy products the time delay is not so much important. With both tested commodity chains there was found higher power of downstream markets, proving demand driven behaviour of these commodity chains, and there was detected oligopsony market structure as well. The data represent monthly prices on both chosen vertical levels in the period of 1/2000–8/2013.

  13. Energy and Food Commodity Prices Linkage: An Examination with Mixed-Frequency Data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Trujillo Barrera, A.A.; Pennings, J.M.E.

    2013-01-01

    Abstract Is the relationship between energy and agricultural commodities an important factor in the increasing price variability of food commodities? Findings from the literature appear to be mixed and highly influenced by the data frequency used in those analysis. A recurrent task in time series

  14. International commodity prices, growth and the outbreak of Civil War in Sub-Saharan Africa

    OpenAIRE

    Markus Brückner; Antonio Ciccone

    2007-01-01

    To learn more about the effect of economic conditions on civil war, we examine whether Sub-Saharan civil wars are more likely to start following downturns in the international price of countries’ main export commodities. The data show a robust effect of commodity price downturns on the outbreak of civil wars. We also find that Sub-Saharan countries are more likely to see civil wars following economic downturns in their main OECD export destinations.

  15. International Commodity Prices, Growth, and the Outbreak of Civil War in Sub-Saharan Africa

    OpenAIRE

    Markus Brückner; Antonio Ciccone

    2009-01-01

    To learn more about the effect of economic conditions on civil war, we examine whether Sub-Saharan civil wars are more likely to start following downturns in the international price of countries main export commodities. The data show a robust effect of commodity price downturns on the outbreak of civil wars. We also find that Sub-Saharan countries are more likely to see civil wars following economic downturns in their main OECD export destinations.

  16. The 1995 uranium spot market: Rising volume - rising prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1996-01-01

    1995 Uranium Spot Market volume increased by 7.8 million lbs U308 equivalent from 1994 levels to over 42.1 million lbs U308 equivalent the largest since 1991. This increased volume was accompanied by increased prices. The restricted market price rose by over $2.20/lb U308 from the January range of $9.75-$10.00 per lb U308 to the December range of $11.95-$12.25 per pound U308. The unrestricted market price rose by over $2.65/lb U308 from the January range of $7.15-$7.30 per lb U308 to the December range of $9.80-$10.15 per pound U308. Unrestricted prices rose at a relatively steady pace each month for the first half of the year and at a greater pace through the second half of the year, while restricted prices rose faster during the first half of the year and leveled out during the second half of the year. The result was a partial closure of the gap between restricted and unrestricted prices

  17. Agricultural and oil commodities: price transmission and market integration between US and Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Franco Rosa

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Purpose of this article it to get some evidences of market interaction between United States and Italy using the time series analysis of spot prices spanning from January 1999 to May 2012 for crude oil and three ag-commodities: wheat, corn and soybean. These crops have been selected for their relevance in ag-commodity exchanges between US and Italy markets. The integration between US and Italy agricultural markets is hypothesized for the consistent volume of crop traded between these two countries while the price transmission is related to the leading price signals of the CBT (Chicago Board of Trade. The integration between oil and ag-commodity markets is suggested both by the large use of energy intensive inputs, (fertilizer, seed, machinery in production of these ag-commodities, and their use in biofuel production. The results suggest: a for US market the evidence of market integration between crude oil and US ag-commodities; b for Italy the integration with US ag-commodity markets and less evidence of integration with the oil market. These results are valuable information both for the agents and policy makers contributing to improve the information accuracy to predict the price movements used by marketing operators for their strategies and policy makers to set up policies to re-establish conditions of market efficiency and allocate these ag-commodities in alternative market channels.

  18. Is there co-movement of agricultural commodities futures prices and crude oil?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Natanelov, Valeri; Alam, Mohammad J.; McKenzie, Andrew M.; Van Huylenbroeck, Guido

    2011-01-01

    Even though significant attempts have appeared in literature, the current perception of co-movement of commodity prices appear inadequate and static. In particular we focus on price movements between crude oil futures and a series of agricultural commodities and gold futures. A comparative framework is applied to identify changes in relationships through time and various cointegration methodologies and causality tests are employed. Our results indicate that co-movement is a dynamic concept and that some economic and policy development may change the relationship between commodities. Furthermore we show that biofuel policy buffers the co-movement of crude oil and corn futures until the crude oil prices surpass a certain threshold. - Highlights: → We show that co-movement of commodity futures is a temporal concept. → A variation in parallel movement between 2 large periods occurs. → Biofuel policy buffers parallel movement of corn and crude oil futures

  19. Is there co-movement of agricultural commodities futures prices and crude oil?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Natanelov, Valeri, E-mail: valeri.natanelov@ugent.be [Department of Agricultural Economics, Ghent University, Coupure links 653, 9000 Ghent (Belgium); Alam, Mohammad J. [Department of Agricultural Economics, Ghent University, Coupure links 653, 9000 Ghent (Belgium); Department of Agribusiness and Marketing, Bangladesh Agricultural University (Bangladesh); McKenzie, Andrew M. [Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness, University of Arkansas, AR (United States); Van Huylenbroeck, Guido [Department of Agricultural Economics, Ghent University, Coupure links 653, 9000 Ghent (Belgium)

    2011-09-15

    Even though significant attempts have appeared in literature, the current perception of co-movement of commodity prices appear inadequate and static. In particular we focus on price movements between crude oil futures and a series of agricultural commodities and gold futures. A comparative framework is applied to identify changes in relationships through time and various cointegration methodologies and causality tests are employed. Our results indicate that co-movement is a dynamic concept and that some economic and policy development may change the relationship between commodities. Furthermore we show that biofuel policy buffers the co-movement of crude oil and corn futures until the crude oil prices surpass a certain threshold. - Highlights: > We show that co-movement of commodity futures is a temporal concept. > A variation in parallel movement between 2 large periods occurs. > Biofuel policy buffers parallel movement of corn and crude oil futures

  20. Market interdependence among commodity prices based on information transmission on the Internet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ji, Qiang; Guo, Jian-Feng

    2015-05-01

    Human behaviour on the Internet has become a synchro-projection of real society. In this paper, we introduce the public concern derived from query volumes on the Web to empirically analyse the influence of information on commodity markets (e.g., crude oil, heating oil, corn and gold) using multivariate GARCH models based on dynamic conditional correlations. The analysis found that the changes of public concern on the Internet can well depict the changes of market prices, as the former has significant Granger causality effects on market prices. The findings indicate that the information of external shocks to commodity markets could be transmitted quickly, and commodity markets easily absorb the public concern of the information-sensitive traders. Finally, the conditional correlation among commodity prices varies dramatically over time.

  1. Agricultural Commodity Price Shocks and their Effect on Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa

    OpenAIRE

    Addison, Tony; Ghoshray, Atanu

    2014-01-01

    Commodity price shocks are an important type of external shock and are often cited as a problem for economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa. This paper quantifies the impact of agricultural commodity price shocks using a near vector autoregressive model. The novel aspect of this model is that we define an auxiliary variable that can potentially capture the definition of a price shock that allows us to determine whether the response of per capita Gross domestic product (GDP) growth in sub-Sahara...

  2. Impacts of the Federal Energy Acts and Other Influences on Prices of Agricultural Commodities and Food

    OpenAIRE

    Ferris, John N.

    2013-01-01

    Most of the increase in ethanol production in the 2008-2012 period can be attributed to the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA) and earlier federal energy legislation. The expansion in U.S. biofuel production, particularly ethanol, was the predominant cause of the elevated commodity prices. Other influences documented were a weak dollar, speculation and an increasingly inelastic commodity demand function. The supply function displayed more elasticity as crop farmers responded ...

  3. The influence of biofuels, economic and financial factors on daily returns of commodity futures prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Algieri, Bernardina

    2014-01-01

    Biofuels production has experienced rapid growth worldwide as one of the several strategies to promote green energy economies. Indeed, climate change mitigation and energy security have been frequent rationales behind biofuel policies, but biofuels production could generate negative impacts, such as additional demand for feedstocks, and therefore for land on which to grow them, with a consequent increase in food commodity prices. In this context, this paper examines the effect of biofuels and other economic and financial factors on daily returns of a group of commodity futures prices using Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) family models in univariate and multivariate settings. The results show that a complex of drivers are relevant in explaining commodity futures returns; more precisely, the Standard and Poor's (S and P) 500 positively affects commodity markets, while the US/Euro exchange rate brings about a decline in commodity returns. It turns out, in addition, that energy market returns are significant in explaining commodity returns on a daily basis, while monetary liquidity is not. This would imply that biofuel policy should be carefully monitored in order to avoid excessive first-generation subsidization, which would trigger a fuel vs. food conflict. - Highlights: • The effects of biofuels and other economic and financial factors on daily returns of commodity futures prices are examined. • A GARCH methodology in univariate and multivariate settings is adopted. • The results show that a complex of drivers is relevant in explaining commodity futures returns. • Energy market returns play a significant role in pushing commodity returns. • The increase in monetary liquidity does not contribute to changes in futures returns on a daily basis

  4. Speculation on commodities futures markets and destabilization of global food prices: exploring the connections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghosh, Jayati; Heintz, James; Pollin, Robert

    2012-01-01

    In December 2010, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization's Food Price Index surpassed its previous peak of June 2008, and prices remained at this level through September 2011. This pattern is creating justified fears of a renewal or intensification of the global food crisis. This paper reviews arguments and evidence to inform debates on how to regulate commodity futures markets in the face of such price volatility and sustained high prices. We focus on the relationship between market liquidity and price patterns in asset markets in general and in commodities futures markets in particular, as well as the relationship between spot and futures market prices for food. We find strong evidence supporting the need to limit huge increases in trading volume on futures markets through regulations. We find that arguments opposing regulation are not supported. We find no support for the claim that liquidity in futures markets stabilizes prices at "fundamental" values or that spot market prices are free of any significant influence from futures markets. Given these results, the most appropriate position for regulators is precautionary: they should enact and enforce policies capable of effectively dampening excessive speculative trading on the commodities markets for food.

  5. Price transmission for agricultural commodities in Uganda: An empirical vector autoregressive analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lassen Kaspersen, Line; Føyn, Tullik Helene Ystanes

    This paper investigates price transmission for agricultural commodities between world markets and the Ugandan market in an attempt to determine the impact of world market prices on the Ugandan market. Based on the realization that price formation is not a static concept, a dynamic vector...... price relations, i.e. the price variations between geographically separated markets in Uganda and the world markets. Our analysis indicates that food markets in Uganda, based on our study of sorghum price transmission, are not integrated into world markets, and that oil prices are a very determining...... autoregressive (VAR) model is presented. The prices of Robusta coffee and sorghum are examined, as both of these crops are important for the domestic economy of Uganda – Robusta as a cash crop, mainly traded internationally, and sorghum for consumption at household level. The analysis focuses on the spatial...

  6. Rising natural gas and electricity prices in the Netherlands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roggen, M.

    2004-01-01

    In a free market, the price for electricity rises rather than falls. And as for the gas price, the consumer will be facing strong fluctuations. For that matter, it is only slightly connected with the liberalization of the market. An employee of Roland Berger Strategy Consultants has delved deeply into the matter, down to the euro [nl

  7. THE ANALYSIS OF THE COMMODITY PRICE FORECASTING SUCCESS CONSIDERING DIFFERENT LENGTHS OF THE INITIAL CONDITION DRIFT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcela Lascsáková

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available In the paper the numerical model based on the exponential approximation of commodity stock exchanges was derived. The price prognoses of aluminium on the London Metal Exchange were determined as numerical solution of the Cauchy initial problem for the 1st order ordinary differential equation. To make the numerical model more accurate the idea of the modification of the initial condition value by the stock exchange was realized. By having analyzed the forecasting success of the chosen initial condition drift types, the initial condition drift providing the most accurate prognoses for the commodity price movements was determined. The suggested modification of the original model made the commodity price prognoses more accurate.

  8. Application of Derivatives Market for Controlling Risks of Commodity Prices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rasuolė Drazdauskienė

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available The issue of raw milk procurement cost level and fluctuation which inhibits strengthening negotiating positions of dairy product fabricants and probability of them staying competitive in the European Union, is examined. Scientific literature that analyzes risks of staple prices is overviewed in the article. The paper provides statistical data representing the situation of Lithuania in contrast with European Union rates. Global usage of prospective transactions and their possible influence on price regulation are analyzed. After examining statistical data and academic literature, conclusions are provided.

  9. International Commodities Prices, Growth and the Outbreak of Civil War in Sub-Saharan Africa

    OpenAIRE

    Markus Bruckner; Antonio Ciccone

    2010-01-01

    To learn more about the effect of economic conditions on civil war, we examine whether Sub-Saharan civil wars are more likely to start following downturns in the international price of countries’ main export commodities. The data show a robust effect of commodity price downturns on the outbreak of civil wars. We also find that Sub-Saharan countries are more likely to see civil wars following economic downturns in their main OECD export destinations.

  10. Price transmission between biofuels, fuels and food commodities

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Krištoufek, Ladislav; Janda, K.; Zilberman, D.

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 8, č. 3 (2014), s. 362-373 ISSN 1932-104X Grant - others:GA ČR(CZ) GAP402/11/0948 Program:GA Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : biofuels * price transmission * non-linearity * elasticity Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 4.214, year: 2014 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2014/E/kristoufek-0433525.pdf

  11. Military and Private Sector Commodity Outlets: A Retail Price Comparison

    Science.gov (United States)

    1985-02-01

    89 6. Del Monte Bananas, 1 lb. .34 .49 7. Sunkist Oranges , 1 lb. .37 .56 8. Minute Maid Frozen Lemon Juice, 6 fl. oz. .25 .41 9. Red Delicious Apples...continued Prices Iter Commissary Safeway 47. Marlboro Cigarettes, Carton 5.28 7.99 48. Carnation Evaporated Milk, Canned, 13 fl. oz. .46 .47 49. Gerber...1 lb. .90 1.29 80. Jimmy Dean Pork Sausage, 16 oz. 1.53 2.49 81. Minute Maid Frozen Orange Juice, 12 f!. oz. .97 .99 TOTAL $114.70 $152.23 1. Sale

  12. Co-Movement of Major Commodity Price Returns : Time-Series Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    de Nicola, Francesca; De Pace, Pierangelo; Hernandez, Manuel A.

    2014-01-01

    This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the degree of co-movement among the nominal price returns of 11 major energy, agricultural and food commodities based on monthly data between 1970 and 2013. A uniform-spacings testing approach, a multivariate dynamic conditional correlation model and a rolling regression procedure are used to study the extent and the time-evolution of uncondi...

  13. Agricultural Commodities and Crude Oil Prices: An Empirical Investigation of Their Relationship

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eleni Zafeiriou

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Within the last few decades, the extended use of biodiesel and bioethanol has established interlinkages between energy markets and agricultural commodity markets. The present work examines the bivariate relationships of crude oil–corn and crude oil–soybean futures prices with the assistance of the ARDL cointegration approach. Our findings confirm that crude oil prices affect the prices of agricultural products used in the production of biodiesel, as well as of ethanol, validating the interaction of energy and agricultural commodity markets. The practical value of the present work is that the findings provide policy makers with insight into the interlinkages between agricultural and energy markets to promote biodiesel or bioethanol by affecting crude oil prices. The novelty of the present work stands on the use of futures prices that incorporate all available information and thus are more appropriate to identify supply and demand shocks and price spillovers than real prices. Finally, the period of study includes extremely low, as well as extremely high, crude oil prices and the results illustrate that biofuels cannot be substituted for crude oil and protect economies from energy volatility.

  14. Rise of energy price, rise of agricultural prices: what medium- and long-term relations and implications?; Hausse du prix de l'energie, hausse des prix agricoles: quelles relations et implications a moyen et long terme?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Voituriez, T.

    2009-07-01

    We review in this study the different factors which have been presented by the scientific community as possible explanations of the sudden upsurge in commodity prices between 2006 and 2008. We examine whether scientific evidence validates any causal relationship, and particularly emphasize the role of explanatory variables underpinning the co-movement of energy and food price rises. Our aim is to provide an up-to-date understanding of food and energy market relationships, so as to better anticipate the possible changes in the evolution of prices in the coming years. (author)

  15. Rising energy prices and the economics of water in agriculture

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zilberman, D.; Sproul, T.; Rajagopal, D.; Sexton, S.; Hellegers, P.J.G.J.

    2008-01-01

    Rising energy prices will alter water allocation and distribution. Water extraction and conveyance will become more costly and demand for hydroelectric power will grow. The higher cost of energy will substantially increase the cost of groundwater, whereas increasing demand for hydroelectric power

  16. The impact of global oil price shocks on China’s bulk commodity markets and fundamental industries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Chuanguo; Chen, Xiaoqing

    2014-01-01

    This paper investigated the reaction of aggregate commodity market to oil price shocks and also explored the effects of oil price shocks on China's fundamental industries: metals, petrochemicals, grains and oilfats. We separated the volatilities of oil price into expected, unexpected and negatively expected categories to identify how oil prices influence bulk commodity markets. We contrasted the results between different periods and among classified indices, in order to discover the significant changes in recent years and the differences at an industry level. Our results indicate that the aggregate commodity market was affected by both expected and unexpected oil price volatilities in China. The impact of unexpected oil price volatilities became more complex after 2007. The metals and grains indices did not significantly respond to the expected volatility in oil prices, in contrast to the petrochemicals and oilfats indices. These results not only contribute to advancing the existing literature, but also merit particular attention from policy makers and market investors in China. - Highlights: • We investigated the impact of global oil price shocks on China’s bulk commodity markets and fundamental industries. • The aggregate commodity market was affected by both expected and unexpected oil price volatilities. • The impact of unexpected oil price volatilities became more complex after 2007. • The metals and grains indices did not significantly respond to the expected volatility in oil prices

  17. Evaluation of different hedging strategies for commodity price risks of industrial cogeneration plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Palzer, Andreas; Westner, Günther; Madlener, Reinhard

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, we design and evaluate eight different strategies for hedging commodity price risks of industrial cogeneration plants. Price developments are parameterized based on EEX data from 2008 to 2011. The probability distributions derived are used to determine the value-at-risk (VaR) of the individual strategies, which are in a final step combined in a mean-variance portfolio analysis for determining the most efficient hedging strategy. We find that the strategy adopted can have a marked influence on the remaining price risk. Quarter futures are found to be particularly well suited for reducing market price risk. In contrast, spot trading of CO 2 certificates is found to be preferable compared to forward market trading. Finally, portfolio optimization shows that a mix of various hedging strategies can further improve the profitability of a heat-based cogeneration plant. - Highlights: • Evaluation of commodity price risk hedging strategies for industrial cogeneration. • Value-at-risk analysis of eight different hedging strategies. • Mean-variance portfolio analysis for determining the optimal hedging strategy mix. • A mix of hedging strategies further improves profitability of heat-based CHP

  18. Rise of energy prices: why and up to how much?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maillard, D.; Gonnot, F.M.

    2004-01-01

    This article is a presentation given by D. Maillard, general director of the general direction of energy and raw materials (DGEMP) of the French ministry of economy, finances and industry (Minefi), at the occasion of a colloquium held in Paris on December 8, 2004, and organised by the energy and development club. In his talk, D. Maillard explains the reasons of the rise of energy prices in 2004: international factors (volatility of the oil and gas markets) and European factors (liberalization and re-structuration of the electricity market, spot prices, increase of demand). (J.S.)

  19. Rising natural gas prices : impacts on U.S. industries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Henry, D.

    2005-01-01

    The impact of rising natural gas prices on the United States economy and domestic industries was examined in this PowerPoint presentation. Industry comments were solicited on the effects of natural gas prices on their business performance from 2000 to 2004 in order to collect data, and macroeconomic impacts were determined through the use of an inter-industry model. Results of the survey and subsequent model suggested that in 2000 and 2001, real gross domestic product (GDP) growth was depressed by 0.2 per cent because of higher natural gas prices. Between 2000 and 2004, the civilian workforce was lower by 489,000 jobs. It was determined that nitrogenous fertilizer manufacturing was the most gas intensive industry. The results indicated that higher natural gas prices were an additional burden on manufacturing industries, and that the economic performance of natural gas intensive industries was poor between 2000-2004. However, it was just as poor between 1997-2000, when gas prices were relatively low and stable. Natural gas intensive industries passed along price increases in their products to their downstream consumers. Despite job losses, wages in natural gas intensive industries were higher and grew faster than in the rest of the manufacturing industry in the 2000-2004 period. Although capital expenditures declined between 2000 to 2004, they declined more rapidly in the 1997-2000 period. There has been no evidence of a decline in international competitiveness of natural gas intensive industries. It was concluded that rising natural gas prices have had a significant impact on the growth of the economy and workforce. tabs., figs

  20. On the importance of commodity and energy price shocks for the macroeconomy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edelstein, Paul S.

    Although higher commodity prices are commonly thought to presage higher rates of inflation, the existing literature suggests that the predictive power of commodity prices for inflation has waned since the 1980s. In the first chapter, I show that this result can be overturned using state-of-the-art forecast combination methods. Moreover, commodity prices are shown to contain predictive information not contained in the leading principal components of a broad set of macroeconomic and financial variables. These improved inflation forecasts are of little value, however, for predicting actual Fed policy decisions. The remaining two chapters study the effect of energy price shocks on U.S. consumer and business expenditures. In the second chapter, I show that there is no statistical support for the presence of asymmetries in the response of real consumption to energy price increases and decreases. This finding has important implications for empirical and theoretical models of the transmission of energy price shocks. I then quantify the direct effect on real consumption of (1) unanticipated changes in discretionary income, (2) shifts in precautionary savings, and (3) changes in the operating cost of energy-using durables. Finally, I trace the declining importance of energy price shocks relative to the 1970s to changes in the composition of U.S. automobile production and the declining overall importance of the U.S. automobile sector. An alternative source of asymmetry is the response of nonresidential fixed investment to energy price shocks. In the third chapter, I show that the apparent asymmetry in the estimated responses of business fixed investment in equipment and structures is largely an artifact (1) of the aggregation of mining-related expenditures by the oil, natural gas, and coal mining industry and all other expenditures, and (2) of ignoring an exogenous shift in investment caused by the 1986 Tax Reform Act. Once symmetry is imposed and miningrelated expenditures

  1. What can price volatility tell us about market efficiency? Conditional heteroscedasticity in historical commodity price series

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Földvári, P.; van Leeuwen, B.

    2011-01-01

    The development in the working of markets has been an important topic in economic history for decades. The volatility of market prices is often used as an indicator of market efficiency in the broadest sense. Yet, the way in which volatility is estimated often makes it difficult to compare price

  2. International positioning of South African electricity prices and commodity differentiated pricing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George A. Thopila

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The South African electricity industry has seen a dramatic increase in prices over the past 3 years. This increase has been blanketed across all sectors and is based on a number of factors such as sector, usage and, in the case of domestic pricing, suburb. The cost of electricity in South Africa, particularly to the industrial sector, has been among the lowest in the world. In this paper, we analyse the recent price increases in the South African electricity sector and discuss the price determination mechanism employed by Eskom, South Africa's electricity provider. We also analyse the revenue and sales of Eskom and review the electricity price from an international perspective. The concept of differential pricing and international benchmarking is analysed as a possibility for the South African industrial electricity industry, so that all sectors are not adversely affected by across-the-board increases. Our aim is to raise the question of whether South Africa's electricity prices are in line with international increases and to suggest the possibility of differentiated prices in the local electricity sector.

  3. Oil Price Rise and the Great Recession of 2008

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehdi Siamak MONADJEMI

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available The financial crises of 2007-2008, caused wide-spread falling output and unemployment, in the affected countries and also globally. The severity of the recession was such that it was called the “Great Recession”. As a result of an increase in demand from China and India, at the same time, oil prices rose significantly. The empirical results from this study show that oil price changes negatively affected global growth rate in the 1970s but not in the 1990s and 2000s. These results suggest that the Great Recession in 2008 that initiated by the financial crises, was independent of a significant rise in oil prices.

  4. Stochastic modeling of economic injury levels with respect to yearly trends in price commodity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Damos, Petros

    2014-05-01

    The economic injury level (EIL) concept integrates economics and biology and uses chemical applications in crop protection only when economic loss by pests is anticipated. The EIL is defined by five primary variables: the cost of management tactic per production unit, the price of commodity, the injury units per pest, the damage per unit injury, and the proportionate reduction of injury averted by the application of a tactic. The above variables are related according to the formula EIL = C/VIDK. The observable dynamic alteration of the EIL due to its different parameters is a major characteristic of its concept. In this study, the yearly effect of the economic variables is assessed, and in particular the influence of the parameter commodity value on the shape of the EIL function. In addition, to predict the effects of the economic variables on the EIL level, yearly commodity values were incorporated in the EIL formula and the generated outcomes were further modelled with stochastic linear autoregressive models having different orders. According to the AR(1) model, forecasts for the five-year period of 2010-2015 ranged from 2.33 to 2.41 specimens per sampling unit. These values represent a threshold that is in reasonable limits to justify future control actions. Management actions as related to productivity and price commodity significantly affect costs of crop production and thus define the adoption of IPM and sustainable crop production systems at local and international levels. This is an open access paper. We use the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 license that permits unrestricted use, provided that the paper is properly attributed.

  5. Implications of commodity price risk and operating leverage on petroleum project economic evaluations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salahor, G.; Laughton, D.G.

    1999-01-01

    The modern asset pricing method, MAP, can provide businesses with improved tools for economic analysis. This in turn leads to greater precision in the analysis of the effects of the following parameters: project structure, time, and uncertainty. This greater precision with MAP extends to analysis of the possibility for active control of the decision alternatives for managers in the petroleum business, especially where this possibility is not questioned. A methodology is developed as a model that quantifies revenue risk based on the nature of commodity price volatility and the accepted price of risk in the commodity market. A mathematical description is included of a natural gas log-normal distribution incorporating the annual volatility in the forecast, and a measure of the rate at which volatility decreases in the long run in the forecast. Give this volatility model, a risk discount factor is determinable and applicable to the current expectation of the commodity prices at a given time, and a discount time factor of all parts of the cash flow stream. Cases are used to evaluate a natural gas development project for the purpose of yielding scenarios for capital vs. operating cost trade-offs, price risk management, production profile, and the effect of the reverting vs. non-reverting price model. In application one, a comparison is made of discounted cash flow (DCF) to MAP evaluations giving a perspective on the various development choices which a producer has through third-party service providers. Further, an example is used to compare the two methods as alternative evaluations of development alternatives to speed up or slow down the production rate and decline profile of a gas field. As in the first example, the DCF discounting is higher than the net discounting in the MAP evaluation. But in this example both methods produce the same project structure decision. The small amount of incremental capital and operating costs needed for the higher production case are

  6. Modeling agricultural commodity prices and volatility in response to anticipated climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lobell, D. B.; Tran, N.; Welch, J.; Roberts, M.; Schlenker, W.

    2012-12-01

    Food prices have shown a positive trend in the past decade, with episodes of rapid increases in 2008 and 2011. These increases pose a threat to food security in many regions of the world, where the poor are generally net consumers of food, and are also thought to increase risks of social and political unrest. The role of global warming in these price reversals have been debated, but little quantitative work has been done. A particular challenge in modeling these effects is that they require understanding links between climate and food supply, as well as between food supply and prices. Here we combine the anticipated effects of climate change on yield levels and volatility with an empirical competitive storage model to examine how expected climate change might affect prices and social welfare in the international food commodity market. We show that price level and volatility do increase over time in response to decreasing yield, and increasing yield variability. Land supply and storage demand both increase, but production and consumption continue to fall leading to a decrease in consumer surplus, and a corresponding though smaller increase in producer surplus.

  7. Predicting prices of agricultural commodities in Thailand using combined approach emphasizing on data pre-processing technique

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thoranin Sujjaviriyasup

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available In this research, a combined approach emphasizing on data pre-processing technique is developed to forecast prices of agricultural commodities in Thailand. The future prices play significant role in decision making to cultivate crops in next year. The proposed model takes ability of MODWT to decompose original time series data into more stable and explicit subseries, and SVR model to formulate complex function of forecasting. The experimental results indicated that the proposed model outperforms traditional forecasting models based on MAE and MAPE criteria. Furthermore, the proposed model reveals that it is able to be a useful forecasting tool for prices of agricultural commodities in Thailand

  8. Financialization of commodities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michał Falkowski

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available The basic theory of price formation tells us how the price of a particular asset will change based on the adjustment to its supply and demand. However, values of assets are also determined by other business fundamentals, company’s and world events, human psychology, and investors’ belief about the possible future profit. In recent history that lead to an increase of individual and institutional investors’ interest in allocating their resources in commodity markets. With a large inflow of capital commodities’ prices started to rise making them attractive components to effective investment portfolios. The presented paper addresses the issue of so called commodities ‘financialization’ process. It looks at the main factors standing behind commodities’ price movements and to what extent financial market participants contributed to commodities price volatility in recent years. Based on the data examined it distinguishes the involvement of both commercial and non-commercial traders in short and long term periods of time. As well as explaining the impact of growing investors’ interest in commodity markets it defines other market forces - like currency appreciations and emerging markets - as being part of increased volatility in raw and soft commodity markets. Along with market examination the paper focuses on possible future outcomes in attempts to regulate commodities derivatives markets and potential effects of those efforts.

  9. Analysis of consumer behaviour when purchasing selected commodity groups concerning the effect of price, habit, discount and product characteristics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jitka Poměnková

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the paper is consumer behaviour analysis when purchasing selected commodity groups concerning the effect of price, habit, discount and product characteristics. Analysis proceed from the Czech household marketing research, where 726 households were electronically questioned. As mentioned above, selected factors for the analysis were habit, products‘ characteristics, price and discount actions.Primary aim is to measure the correspondence of selected factors influence on consumer behaviour during purchase decision making process of selected commodity groups. Interpretation is based on two-tier evaluation. First level represents commodity groups distinction by the character of goods and subsequent evaluation of goods characteristics correspondence in accordance with each influencing factor. Second one represents behaviour of commodity group in cross-section of selected factors. For consumer behaviour analysis chi-square test was used. Before its application the data set (responses was divided according to the ten-point scale into three interval’ groups.

  10. Prices of agricultural commodities, biofuels and fossil fuels in long-run relationships: a comparative study for the USA and Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Groth, Tanja; Bentzen, Jan

    2013-01-01

    Time-series data for the USA and Europe representing prices of agricultural commodities, biofuels and fossil fuels are used for a comparative analysis of long-run price relationships. There is some evidence for cointegration between ethanol and gasoline, especially for the USA, and in the case...... of biodiesel, stronger evidence of cointegration between biodiesel, diesel and soya oil for both the USA and Europe. Finally, biofuel prices do not seem to influence agricultural commodity prices or fossil fuel prices....

  11. An equilibrium pricing model for weather derivatives in a multi-commodity setting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Yongheon; Oren, Shmuel S.

    2009-01-01

    Many industries are exposed to weather risk. Weather derivatives can play a key role in hedging and diversifying such risk because the uncertainty in a company's profit function can be correlated to weather condition which affects diverse industry sectors differently. Unfortunately the weather derivatives market is a classical example of an incomplete market that is not amenable to standard methodologies used for derivative pricing in complete markets. In this paper, we develop an equilibrium pricing model for weather derivatives in a multi-commodity setting. The model is constructed in the context of a stylized economy where agents optimize their hedging portfolios which include weather derivatives that are issued in a fixed quantity by a financial underwriter. The supply and demand resulting from hedging activities and the supply by the underwriter are combined in an equilibrium pricing model under the assumption that all agents maximize some risk averse utility function. We analyze the gains due to the inclusion of weather derivatives in hedging portfolios and examine the components of that gain attributable to hedging and to risk sharing. (author)

  12. Econometrics as evidence? Examining the 'causal' connections between financial speculation and commodities prices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, James W; Cook, Nikolai M

    2016-10-01

    One of the lasting legacies of the financial crisis of 2008, and the legislative energies that followed from it, is the growing reliance on econometrics as part of the rulemaking process. Financial regulators are increasingly expected to rationalize proposed rules using available econometric techniques, and the courts have vacated several key rules emanating from Dodd-Frank on the grounds of alleged deficiencies in this evidentiary effort. The turn toward such econometric tools is seen as a significant constraint on and challenge to regulators as they endeavor to engage with such essential policy questions as the impact of financial speculation on food security. Yet, outside of the specialized practitioner community, very little is known about these techniques. This article examines one such econometric test, Granger causality, and its role in a pivotal Dodd-Frank rulemaking. Through an examination of the test for Granger causality and its attempts to distill the causal connections between financial speculation and commodities prices, the article argues that econometrics is a blunt but useful tool, limited in its ability to provide decisive insights into commodities markets and yet yielding useful returns for those who are able to wield it.

  13. Essays on Commodity Prices and Macroeconomic Performance of Developing and Resources Rich Economies: Evidence from Kazakhstan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bilgin, Ferhat I.

    My dissertation consists of three essays in empirical macroeconomics. The objective of this research is to use rigorous time-series econometric analysis to investigate the impact of commodity prices on macroeconomic performance of a small, developing and resource-rich country, which is in the process of transition from a purely command and control economy to a market oriented one. Essay 1 studies the relationship between Kazakhstan's GDP, total government expenditure, real effective exchange rate and the world oil price. Specifically, I use the cointegrated vector autoregression (CVAR) and error correction modeling (ECM) approach to identify the long and short-run relations that may exist among these macroeconomic variables. I found a long-run relationship for Kazakhstan's GDP, which depends on government spending and the oil price positively, and on the real effective exchange rate negatively. In the short run, the growth rate of GDP depends on the growth rates of the oil price, investment and the magnitude of the deviation from the long-run equilibrium. Essay 2 studies the inflation process in Kazakhstan based on the analysis of price formation in the following sectors: monetary, external, labor and goods and services. The modeling is conducted from two different perspectives: the first is the monetary model of inflation framework and the second is the mark-up modeling framework. Encompassing test results show that the mark-up model performs better than the monetary model in explaining inflation in Kazakhstan. According to the mark-up inflation model, in the long run, the price level is positively related to unit labor costs, import prices and government administered prices as well the world oil prices. In the short run, the inflation is positively influenced by the previous quarter's inflation, the contemporaneous changes in the government administered prices, oil prices and by the changes of contemporaneous and lagged unit labor costs, and negatively affected

  14. THE IMPACT OF THE RECENT FEDERAL RESERVE LARGESCALE ASSET PURCHASES ON THE AGRICULTURAL COMMODITY PRICES: A HISTORICAL DECOMPOSITION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sayed H. Saghaian

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we evaluate the effects of the recent Federal Reserve’s purchases of longterm assets on prices of agricultural commodities. The first large-scale asset purchases began at the end of 2008, after the Great Recession, and the second purchases began in November of 2010. The commodities included in this analysis are meats (beef, pork, and broilers, cereal grains (corn, soybeans, wheat, and rice, and softs (sugar, coffee, cocoa, and cotton. Using historical decompositions, we find significant increases in the nominal agricultural prices of ten out of 12 agricultural commodities under investigation from the second large-scale asset purchases (in 2010 but the first set large-scale asset purchases had only two positive effects.

  15. An Economic Rationale for the African Scramble : The Commercial Transition and the Commodity Price Boom of 1845-1885

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Frankema, Ewout; Williamson, Jeffrey; Woltjer, Pieter

    2015-01-01

    This is the first study to present a unified quantitative account of African commodity trade in the long 19th century from the zenith of the Atlantic slave trade (1790s) to the eve of World War II (1939). Drawing evidence from a new dataset on export and import prices, volumes, composition and net

  16. Impacts of Retailers’ Pricing Strategies for Produce Commodities on Farmer Welfare

    OpenAIRE

    Li, Chenguang; Sexton, Richard J.

    2009-01-01

    The typical model of retail pricing for produce products assumes retailers set price equal to the farm price plus a certain markup. However, observations from scanner data indicate a large degree of price dispersion in the grocery retailing market. In addition to markup pricing behavior, we document three alternative leading pricing patterns: fixed (constant) pricing, periodic sale, and high-low pricing. Retail price variations under these alternative pricing regimes in general have little co...

  17. Price development evaluation of chosen plant commodities in agra­rian market in the Slovak Republic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrik Rovný

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The objective of the paper is to evaluate the price development of the chosen commodities in plant production in Slovakia and to focus on the factors influencing the increase or decrease in the price of commodities on the domestic and foreign markets. In 2008 the prices of the products in a year–on–year plant production increased by 1.6 %. The price of the plant products, including fruits and ve­ge­tab­les recorded the biggest increase since January 2008 until October 2008. The biggest increase in prices was recorded in June (increase of 52.7%. The high prices of oil plants and legume were one of the causes in a year–on–year price increase (oil plants increase by 23.3% and legume −15.7%. Price development on the domestic market of cereals and oil plants was influenced in the first three terms by growing stock–exchange value and the high demand from the side of foreign buyers connected with the increasing production of biofuels. On the other hand, in the last term of the year 2008, there can be seen the rapid decrease of the prices of cereals and oil plants because of the high production and the development of the world prices. The prices of fruits, evaluated in 2004–2008, recorded the biggest increase in January and February 2008 (in January 2008 – increase by 22.1% and February 2008 – increase by 23.2%. Prices of vegetables slightly grew in the monitored period. The biggest increase was recorded in December 2006 and in January and February 2007 (more than 15%.

  18. Paying the price: a cross-sectional survey of Australian socioeconomically disadvantaged smokers' responses to hypothetical cigarette price rises.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guillaumier, Ashleigh; Bonevski, Billie; Paul, Christine; D'Este, Catherine; Doran, Christopher; Siahpush, Mohammad

    2014-03-01

    Increases in tobacco taxation can lead to reductions in tobacco consumption and prevalence of use across social groups. However, use of price-minimisation strategies to manage current and future tobacco use and the role of financial stress is less understood. This study aimed to measure the effect of cigarette price increases on price-minimisation strategy endorsement and financial stress among socioeconomically disadvantaged smokers. Community service organisation welfare recipients in NSW, Australia completed a touchscreen survey. Smoking history, financial stress, highest price to quit and responses to hypothetical cigarette price increases were assessed. Participants were 354 smokers (response rate = 79%). Most participants received income from a government pension (95%), earned price rises, significantly more participants endorsed trying to quit in response to the larger increase scenario (P price-minimisation strategies (e.g. switching to cheaper brands/products) were endorsed, but remained constant across hypothetical scenarios; level of financial stress appeared to have little influence. Smokers indicating they would not change their smoking in response to price rises had higher levels of nicotine dependence. Socially disadvantaged smokers endorsed numerous price-minimising strategies to maintain smoking at hypothetically increased costs. Larger cigarette price rises motivated more smokers to consider quitting, while price-resistant smokers appeared to have a more entrenched smoker status. © 2013 Australasian Professional Society on Alcohol and other Drugs.

  19. Linkages among commodity futures prices in the recent financial crisis: An application of cointegration tests with a structural break

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yoichi Tsuchiya

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we investigate the existence of long-term co-movements among the prices of commodity futures contracts. We use a cointegration test, which accounts for the presence of a structural break. We show that while there is a long-term relationship among agricultural and among non-agricultural commodity futures prices when a structural break is taken into account, there is no such relationship without allowing for a structural break. We also show that these break points, in fact, occur a few months before the recent global financial crisis. Although the previous literature broadly casts doubt on such price co-movements, our results confirm that market performance improved during the sample period.

  20. The Australian Dollar's Long-Term Fluctuations and Trend: The Commodity Prices-cum-Economic Cycles Hypothesis

    OpenAIRE

    Sanidas, Elias

    2005-01-01

    The Australian dollar’s exchange rate (mainly in relation to the American dollar) has received a considerable attention in research and several models have been proposed to explain its trend and fluctuations. Thus, as a conclusion of this research we can say that this commodity currency very much depends on the terms of trade which in turn depend on commodity prices. The present paper is based on this conclusion and hence proposes the possibility that the Australian dollar’s behavior is overw...

  1. If the Song has No Price, is it Still a Commodity? : Rethinking the Commodification of Digital Music

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rasmus Fleischer

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available In music streaming services like Spotify, discrete pieces of music no longer has a price, as has traditionally been the case in music retailing, both analog and digital. This article discusses the theoretical and practical implications of this shift towards subscriptions, starting from a critical review of recent literature dealing with the commodification of music. The findings have a relevance that is not limited to music or digital media, but also apply more broadly on the study of commodification. At the theoretical level, the article compares two ways of defining the commodity, one structural (Marx, one situational (Appadurai, Kopytoff, arguing for the necessity of a theory that can distinguish commodities from all that which is not (yet commodified. This is demonstrated by taking Spotify as a case, arguing that it does not sell millions of different commodities to its users, but only one: the subscription itself. This has broad economic and cultural implications, of which four are highlighted: (1 The user of Spotify has no economic incentive to limit music listening, because the price of a subscription is the same regardless of the quantity of music consumed. (2 For the same reason, Spotify as a company cannot raise its revenues by making existing customers consume more of the product, but only by raising the number of subscribers, or by raising the price of a subscription. (3 Within platforms like Spotify, it is not possible to use differential pricing of musical recordings, as has traditionally been the case in music retail. Accordingly, record companies or independent artists hence can no longer compete for listeners by offering their music at a discount. (4 Within the circuit of capital. Spotify may actually be better understood as a commodity producer than as a distributor, implying a less symbiotic relationship to the recorded music industry.

  2. Analysis of the development of export prices of selected agricultural and food commodities in the Czech Republic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Milan Palát

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper is focused on the description of average level, variability and developmental trends the export prices of selected agricultural and food commodities in the Czech Republic with differentiation according to particular countries within the defined reference period 1993–2002. Thre is also presented the short-time point and interval extrapolation prediction of studied events. Methods of regression and correlation analysis and developmental trends were applied for the mathematical-statistical analysis.

  3. Commodity Price Volatility in the Biofuel Era: An Examination of the Linkage Between Energy and Agricultural Markets

    OpenAIRE

    Thomas W. Hertel; Jayson Beckman

    2011-01-01

    Agricultural and energy commodity prices have traditionally exhibited relatively low – even negative correlation. However, the recent increases in biofuel production have altered the agriculture-energy relationship in a fundamental way. The amount of corn utilized for ethanol production in the US has increased from 5% in 2001 to over one-third by the end of the decade. This increase has drawn corn previously sold to other uses (exports, food, feed), as well as acreage devoted to other crops (...

  4. The Impact of Commodity Price Shocks in a Major Producing Economy. The Case of Copper and Chile

    OpenAIRE

    Michael Pedersen

    2015-01-01

    The present study analyzes how copper price shocks affect macroeconomic variables in Chile, which is the largest producer in the world of this commodity. It is taken into account that shocks with different sources may have different impacts and a separation is made between supply, demand, and specific copper demand shocks. The empirical analysis is based on a structural VAR model, where shocks are identified by sign restrictions, i.e. restrictions are imposed on impulse-response functions. In...

  5. On the global economic potentials and marginal costs of non-renewable resources and the price of energy commodities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mercure, Jean-François; Salas, Pablo

    2013-01-01

    A model is presented in this work for simulating endogenously the evolution of the marginal costs of production of energy carriers from non-renewable resources, their consumption, depletion pathways and timescales. Such marginal costs can be used to simulate the long term average price formation of energy commodities. Drawing on previous work where a global database of energy resource economic potentials was constructed, this work uses cost distributions of non-renewable resources in order to evaluate global flows of energy commodities. A mathematical framework is given to calculate endogenous flows of energy resources given an exogenous commodity price path. This framework can be used in reverse in order to calculate an endogenous marginal cost of production of energy carriers given an exogenous carrier demand. Using rigid price inelastic assumptions independent of the economy, these two approaches generate limiting scenarios that depict extreme use of natural resources. This is useful to characterise the current state and possible uses of remaining non-renewable resources such as fossil fuels and natural uranium. The theory is however designed for use within economic or technology models that allow technology substitutions. In this work, it is implemented in the global power sector model FTT:Power. Policy implications are given. - Highlights: • Theoretical model to forecast marginal costs of non-renewable resources. • Tracks the consumption and costs of non-renewable resources. • For use in economic or technology models

  6. Labor demand effects of rising electricity prices: Evidence for Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cox, Michael; Peichl, Andreas; Pestel, Nico; Siegloch, Sebastian

    2014-01-01

    Germany continues to play a pioneering role in replacing conventional power plants with renewable energy sources. While this might be beneficial with respect to environmental quality, it also implies increasing electricity prices. The extent to which this is associated with negative impacts on employment depends on the interrelationship between labor and electricity as input factors in the production process. In this paper, we estimate cross-price elasticities between electricity and heterogeneous labor for the German manufacturing sector. We use administrative linked employer–employee micro-data combined with information on sector-level electricity prices and usage over the period 2003–2007. We find positive, but small conditional cross-price elasticities of labor demand with respect to electricity prices, which means that electricity as an input factor can be replaced by labor to a limited extent when the production level is held constant. In the case of adjustable output, we find negative unconditional cross-price elasticities, implying that higher electricity prices lead to output reductions and to lower labor demand, with low- and high-skilled workers being affected more than medium-skilled. Resulting adverse distributional effects and potential overall job losses may pose challenges for policy-makers in securing public support for the German energy turnaround. - Highlights: • We estimate cross-price elasticities for electricity and labor in manufacturing. • We use linked employer–employee micro-data from Germany for 2003 to 2007. • We find a weak substitutability between electricity and labor for constant output. • We find complementarity between electricity and labor for adjustable output. • Low- and high-skilled workers are more affected than medium-skilled

  7. Rising gasoline prices increase new motorcycle sales and fatalities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, He; Wilson, Fernando A; Stimpson, Jim P; Hilsenrath, Peter E

    2015-12-01

    We examined whether sales of new motorcycles was a mechanism to explain the relationship between motorcycle fatalities and gasoline prices. The data came from the Motorcycle Industry Council, Energy Information Administration and Fatality Analysis Reporting System for 1984-2009. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) regressions estimated the effect of inflation-adjusted gasoline price on motorcycle sales and logistic regressions estimated odds ratios (ORs) between new and old motorcycle fatalities when gasoline prices increase. New motorcycle sales were positively correlated with gasoline prices (r = 0.78) and new motorcycle fatalities (r = 0.92). ARIMA analysis estimated that a US$1 increase in gasoline prices would result in 295,000 new motorcycle sales and, consequently, 233 new motorcycle fatalities. Compared to crashes on older motorcycle models, those on new motorcycles were more likely to be young riders, occur in the afternoon, in clear weather, with a large engine displacement, and without alcohol involvement. Riders on new motorcycles were more likely to be in fatal crashes relative to older motorcycles (OR 1.14, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.02-1.28) when gasoline prices increase. Our findings suggest that, in response to increasing gasoline prices, people tend to purchase new motorcycles, and this is accompanied with significantly increased crash risk. There are several policy mechanisms that can be used to lower the risk of motorcycle crash injuries through the mechanism of gas prices and motorcycle sales such as raising awareness of motorcycling risks, enhancing licensing and testing requirements, limiting motorcycle power-to-weight ratios for inexperienced riders, and developing mandatory training programs for new riders.

  8. Commodity futures markets: are they an effective price risk management tool for the European wheat supply chain?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cesar Revoredo-Giha

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The instability of commodity prices and the hypothesis that speculative behaviour was one of its causes has brought renewed interest in futures markets. The paper analyses the European wheat futures markets (feed and milling and the Chicago Board of Trade’s wheat contract as a comparison. Although the main purpose of the paper is to analyse whether futures markets are still useful for hedging (considering the demands from different market participants, implicitly this can be seen as testing whether the increasing presence of speculation has made futures markets divorced from physical markets. The results indicate that hedging with futures markets is still a viable alternative for dealing with price risk. This is particularly true in short period hedges (e.g. merchants and processors, where the basis seems to have been affected by the observed price instability.

  9. The Rise of Food Prices and the Challenge of Development in Africa ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This article examines the rise of food prices and analyses the factors that contribute to price hikes and the overall implication in Africa's development. Africa is a conspicuous laggard among contemporary developing regions in the world. The continent bears the brunt of starvation, malnutrition, hunger and diseases that arise ...

  10. Preços de commodities e nível de atividade em uma pequena economia aberta: evidências empíricas para o estado do Espírito Santo Commodity prices and activity level in a small open economy: empirical evidence for the State of Espírito Santo

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matheus Albergaria de Magalhães

    2011-12-01

    's economy compared to the national economy and other Brazilian states will also be measured. The results obtained reveal five distinct empirical patterns: (i given the state's high degree of openness, the impacts of commodity price fluctuations tend to be stronger when compared to Brazil and other Brazilian States; (ii Granger-causality test results show that commodity prices precede output levels both in the case of the State and the country; (iii a similar result occurs when a broad set of economic variables related to the State of Espírito Santo are considered; (iv a positive shock to commodity prices causes output to initially rise , followed by a contraction, with this variable displaying a permanently higher level in the long run; (v variance decomposition results show that, on average, the quantitative impacts of commodity price shocks are larger in the case of the State than the country. The results obtained are robust with regards to several specification issues, such as different stationary transformations of data, as well as distinct number of lags employed in Granger-causality tests. These results are important in the sense of providing a better understanding of the effects of commodity price variations on a small, open economy, as seems to be the case for the State of Espírito Santo.

  11. Non-price competition in the regional high-rise construction market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ganebnykh Elena

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The article analyzes the market of high-rise residential construction in the city of Kirov (Russia. A minimal significance of price factors has been revealed in the process of the market analysis. This suggests that a lower price does not guarantee an increase in consumer demand. Thus, factors of non-price competition are of great importance in the market in question. The expert survey has identified the factors of non-price competition which influence consumer perceptions. A perceptual map has been constructed on the basis of the identified factors by means of the factor analysis to determine the positioning of each high-rise building relative to the consumer requirements. None of the high-rise residential buildings in the market in question meets the consumers’ expectations of an “ideal facility”.

  12. Non-price competition in the regional high-rise construction market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ganebnykh, Elena; Burtseva, Tatyana; Gurova, Ekaterina; Polyakova, Irina

    2018-03-01

    The article analyzes the market of high-rise residential construction in the city of Kirov (Russia). A minimal significance of price factors has been revealed in the process of the market analysis. This suggests that a lower price does not guarantee an increase in consumer demand. Thus, factors of non-price competition are of great importance in the market in question. The expert survey has identified the factors of non-price competition which influence consumer perceptions. A perceptual map has been constructed on the basis of the identified factors by means of the factor analysis to determine the positioning of each high-rise building relative to the consumer requirements. None of the high-rise residential buildings in the market in question meets the consumers' expectations of an "ideal facility".

  13. Developments in Global Food Prices

    OpenAIRE

    Vanessa Rayner; Emily Laing; Jamie Hall

    2011-01-01

    Global food prices have increased significantly since the early 2000s, reversing the long-run trend decline in relative food prices over previous decades. A range of supply disruptions in key food-producing countries have contributed to higher food prices, along with strong demand from developing countries as per capita incomes rise and consumption patterns change. Rising commodity prices are leading to higher headline consumer price inflation in many countries though, at this stage, core mea...

  14. An Economic Rationale for the West African Scramble? The Commercial Transition and the Commodity Price Boom of 1835-1885

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Frankema, Ewout; Williamson, Jeffrey; Woltjer, Pieter

    2018-01-01

    We use a new trade dataset showing that nineteenth century Sub-Saharan Africa experienced a terms of trade boom comparable to other parts of the ‘global periphery’. A sharp rise in export prices in the five decades before the scramble (1835-1885) was followed by an equally impressive decline during

  15. Potential of commodity chemicals to become bio-based according to maximum yields and petrochemical prices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Straathof, Adrie J.J.; Bampouli, A.

    2017-01-01

    Carbohydrates are the prevailing biomass components available for bio-based production. The most direct way to convert carbohydrates into commodity chemicals is by one-step conversion at maximum theoretical yield, such as by anaerobic fermentation without side product formation. Considering these

  16. 7 CFR 5.6 - Revision of the parity price of a commodity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... continuing changes in demand and supply conditions which are reflected in market prices. Accordingly, only in... Administrative Law Judges or such other employee of the Department as the Secretary may designate for the purpose...

  17. Does climate policy make the EU economy more resilient to oil price rises? A CGE analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maisonnave, Hélène; Pycroft, Jonathan; Saveyn, Bert; Ciscar, Juan-Carlos

    2012-01-01

    The European Union has committed itself to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20% in 2020 compared with 1990 levels. This paper investigates whether this policy has an additional benefit in terms of economic resilience by protecting the EU from the macroeconomic consequences due to an oil price rise. We use the GEM-E3 computable general equilibrium model to analyse the results of three scenarios. The first one refers to the impact of an increase in the oil price. The second scenario analyses the European climate policy and the third scenario analyses the oil price rise when the European climate policy is implemented. Unilateral EU climate policy implies a cost on the EU of around 1.0% of GDP. An oil price rise in the presence of EU climate policy does imply an additional cost on the EU of 1.5% of GDP (making a total loss of 2.5% of GDP), but this is less than the 2.2% of GDP that the EU would lose from the oil price rise in the absence of climate policy. This is evidence that even unilateral climate policy does offer some economic protection for the EU.

  18. Gasoline Prices and Their Relationship to Rising Motorcycle Fatalities, 1990–2007

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stimpson, Jim P.; Hilsenrath, Peter E.

    2009-01-01

    Motor vehicle accidents are the leading cause of death among young adults. Although automobile fatalities have declined in recent years, motorcycle fatalities are rapidly increasing. The purpose of our research was to quantify the relationship between changing fuel prices and motorcycle fatalities. Our findings suggest that people increasingly rely on motorcycles to reduce their fuel costs in response to rising gasoline prices. We estimate that use of motorcycles and scooters instead of 4-wheeled vehicles results in over 1500 additional motorcycle fatalities annually for each dollar increase in gas prices. Motorcycle safety should receive more attention as a leading public health issue. PMID:19696374

  19. A fractionally cointegrated VAR analysis of price discovery in commodity futures markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dolatabadi, Sepideh; Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard; Xu, Ke

    straightforward examination of the adjustment coefficients. In our empirical analysis we use the data from Figuerola-Ferretti and Gonzalo (2010), who conduct a similar analysis using the usual (non-fractional) CVAR model. Our first finding is that, for all markets except copper, the fractional integration......In this paper we apply the recently developed fractionally cointegrated vector autoregressive (FCVAR) model to analyze price discovery in the spot and futures markets for five non-ferrous metals (aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, and zinc). The FCVAR model allows for long memory (fractional...... to the results from the non-fractional model, we find slightly more evidence of price discovery in the spot market. Specifically, using standard likelihood ratio tests, we do not reject the hypothesis that price discovery takes place exclusively in the spot (futures) market for copper, lead, and zinc (aluminium...

  20. Resource externalities and the persistence of heterogeneous pricing behavior in an energy commodity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bunn, Derek; Koc, Veli; Sapio, Alessandro

    2015-01-01

    In competitive product markets, repeated interaction among producers with similar economic characteristics would be expected to result in convergence of their behaviors. If convergence does not occur, it raises fundamental questions related to the sustainability of heterogeneous competitive strategies. This paper examines the prices submitted to the British wholesale electricity market by four coal-fired plants, separately owned, approximately of the same age, size and efficiency, and located in the same transmission network zone. Due to the repetitive nature of the spot market, one would expect convergence in strategies. Yet, we find evidence of persistent price dispersion and heterogeneous strategies. We consider several propositions for these effects including market power, company size, forward commitments, vertical integration and the management of interrelated assets. - Highlights: • Time series models of offer prices from 4 companies, UK electricity spot market • Focus on coal-fired plants of similar size, efficiency, age, same network zone • Low, less volatile offers by small, not vertically integrated, only-coal company • Operational risks of nuclear plants in a portfolio imply finer tracking of PX prices • Market leadership from private information on the Anglo-French interconnector flows

  1. Why rising U.S. gas demand may not hike prices in the 90s

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Adelman, M.A.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reports that it was widely believed after the 1986 U.S. natural gas price drop that prices had to rise steeply soon because at the low prices it did not pay to replace reserves. Lack of reserves would push the price back up. This forecast raised the value of reserves in the ground. It was a mistake. Reserves were replaced because the cost had dropped so sharply that it paid to replace them. This fact was hidden by the so-called finding cost per Mcf equivalent. This is expenditures on exploration plus development, for oil and gas together, divided by the reserve-additions of oil plus gas reduced to an equivalent, usually of 6:1 but sometimes a higher ratio

  2. Vehicle type choice under the influence of a tax reform and rising fuel prices

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mabit, Stefan Lindhard

    2014-01-01

    change in new vehicle purchases toward more diesel vehicles and more fuel-efficient vehicles. The paper analyses to what extent a vehicle tax reform similar to the Danish 2007 reform may explain changes in purchasing behaviour. The paper investigates the effects of a tax reform, fuel price changes......, and technological development on vehicle type choice using a mixed logit model. The model allows a simulation of the effect of car price changes that resemble those induced by the tax reform. This effect is compared to the effects of fuel price changes and technology improvements. The simulations show...... that the effect of the tax reform on fuel efficiency is similar to the effect of rising fuel prices while the effect of technological development is much larger. The conclusion is that while the tax reform appeared in the same year as a large increase in fuel efficiency, it seems likely that it only explains...

  3. A sensitivity analysis of process design parameters, commodity prices and robustness on the economics of odour abatement technologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estrada, José M; Kraakman, N J R Bart; Lebrero, Raquel; Muñoz, Raúl

    2012-01-01

    The sensitivity of the economics of the five most commonly applied odour abatement technologies (biofiltration, biotrickling filtration, activated carbon adsorption, chemical scrubbing and a hybrid technology consisting of a biotrickling filter coupled with carbon adsorption) towards design parameters and commodity prices was evaluated. Besides, the influence of the geographical location on the Net Present Value calculated for a 20 years lifespan (NPV20) of each technology and its robustness towards typical process fluctuations and operational upsets were also assessed. This comparative analysis showed that biological techniques present lower operating costs (up to 6 times) and lower sensitivity than their physical/chemical counterparts, with the packing material being the key parameter affecting their operating costs (40-50% of the total operating costs). The use of recycled or partially treated water (e.g. secondary effluent in wastewater treatment plants) offers an opportunity to significantly reduce costs in biological techniques. Physical/chemical technologies present a high sensitivity towards H2S concentration, which is an important drawback due to the fluctuating nature of malodorous emissions. The geographical analysis evidenced high NPV20 variations around the world for all the technologies evaluated, but despite the differences in wage and price levels, biofiltration and biotrickling filtration are always the most cost-efficient alternatives (NPV20). When, in an economical evaluation, the robustness is as relevant as the overall costs (NPV20), the hybrid technology would move up next to BTF as the most preferred technologies. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Price volatility, trading volume, and market depth in Asian commodity futures exchanges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tanachote Boonvorachote

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper empirically investigates the impact of trading activity including trading volume and open interest on price volatility in Asian futures exchanges. Trading volume and open interest represent market information for investors. This study uses three different definitions of volatility: (1 daily volatility measured by close-to-close returns, (2 non-trading volatility measured by close-to-open returns, and (3 trading volatility measured by open-to-close returns. The impact of trading volume and open interest on price volatility is investigated. Following Bessembinder and Seguin (1993, volume and open interest are divided into expected and unexpected components. The GARCH (1,1 model is employed using expected and unexpected components of trading activity (volume and open interest as explanatory variables. The results show a positive contemporaneous relationship between expected and unexpected trading volume and volatility, while open interest mitigates volatility. Policy makers can use these findings to suggest to investors that trading activity (volume and open interest is a proxy of market information flowing to exchanges, especially unexpected trading activity. New information flowing to exchanges can mostly be noticed in unexpected trading volumes and open interests.

  5. Managing commodity risks in highway contracts : quantifying premiums, accounting for correlations among risk factors, and designing optimal price-adjustment contracts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-09-01

    It is a well-known fact that macro-economic conditions, such as prices of commodities (e.g. oil, : cement and steel) affect the cost of construction projects. In a volatile market environment, highway : agencies often pass such risk to contractors us...

  6. An Economic Rationale for the African Scramble. The Commercial Transition and the Commodity Price Boom of 1845-1885. NBER Working Paper 21213

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Frankema, E.H.P.; Williamson, J.G.; Woltjer, P.J.

    2015-01-01

    This is the first study to present a unified quantitative account of African commodity trade in the long 19th century from the zenith of the Atlantic slave trade (1790s) to the eve of World War II (1939). Drawing evidence from a new dataset on export and import prices, volumes, composition and net

  7. The impact of commodity price and conservation policy scenarios on deforestation and agricultural land use in a frontier area within the Amazon

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verburg, R.W.; Rodrigues Filho, S.; Lindoso, D.; Debortoli, N.; Litre, G.; Bursztyn, M.

    2014-01-01

    Deforestation in the Amazon is caused by the complex interplay of different drivers. Price of commodities such as beef and soya, and incoming migration are paramount factors. Construction of new highways is a key aspect, as they enable a growing flow of people and economic activities, provoking an

  8. Rising Prices of Targeted Oral Anticancer Medications and Associated Financial Burden on Medicare Beneficiaries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shih, Ya-Chen Tina; Xu, Ying; Liu, Lei; Smieliauskas, Fabrice

    2017-08-01

    Purpose The high cost of oncology drugs threatens the affordability of cancer care. Previous research identified drivers of price growth of targeted oral anticancer medications (TOAMs) in private insurance plans and projected the impact of closing the coverage gap in Medicare Part D in 2020. This study examined trends in TOAM prices and patient out-of-pocket (OOP) payments in Medicare Part D and estimated the actual effects on patient OOP payments of partial filling of the coverage gap by 2012. Methods Using SEER linked to Medicare Part D, 2007 to 2012, we identified patients who take TOAMs via National Drug Codes in Part D claims. We calculated total drug costs (prices) and OOP payments per patient per month and compared their rates of inflation with general health care prices. Results The study cohort included 42,111 patients who received TOAMs between 2007 and 2012. Although the general prescription drug consumer price index grew at 3% per year over 2007 to 2012, mean TOAM prices increased by nearly 12% per year, reaching $7,719 per patient per month in 2012. Prices increased over time for newly and previously launched TOAMs. Mean patient OOP payments dropped by 4% per year over the study period, with a 40% drop among patients with a high financial burden in 2011, when the coverage gap began to close. Conclusion Rising TOAM prices threaten the financial relief patients have begun to experience under closure of the coverage gap in Medicare Part D. Policymakers should explore methods of harnessing the surge of novel TOAMs to increase price competition for Medicare beneficiaries.

  9. An Economic Rationale for the West African Scramble? The Commercial Transition and the Commodity Price Boom of 1835-1885

    OpenAIRE

    Frankema, E.H.P.; Williamson, J.G.; Woltjer, P.J.

    2018-01-01

    We use a new trade dataset showing that nineteenth century Sub-Saharan Africa experienced a terms of trade boom comparable to other parts of the ‘global periphery’. A sharp rise in export prices in the five decades before the scramble (1835-1885) was followed by an equally impressive decline during the colonial era. This study revises the view that the scramble for West Africa occurred when its major export markets were in decline and argues that the larger weight of West Africa in French imp...

  10. Effects of an oil price rise on inflation, output, and the exchange rate in the case of subsidization policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zandi, F R

    1982-01-01

    Since the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries raised the price of oil by 400% in 1974, the theory of supply inflation has received a great deal of attention. This study analyses the short and long run effects of an oil price rise on output, inflation, and the exchange rate. The study also analyses dynamic adjustments to the oil price rise in cases where oil-price subsidies are provided and where no subsidies are provided. In the no-subsidy case it is shown that the oil price rise can be inflationary or deflationary. The implications of the policy of subsidizing the price of oil is highlighted by taking account of a government budget constraint which in turn leads to the possibility of monetization as a source of financing the deficit, and thereby to higher output relative to the no subsidy case. As to the price level, the possibility is illustrated that subsidization can actually be more inflationary. The important element giving rise to the above possibility is the subsidy induced increase in the money supply. Exchange-rate flexibility is shown not to insulate the domestic price level against an oil price rise. In the long run the rate of inflation and exchange-rate variations are determined by the rate of growth of the money supply. The dynamic adjustment path of price and output is shown to be determined by the rate of adjustment of inflationary expectations.

  11. Bootstrap Score Tests for Fractional Integration in Heteroskedastic ARFIMA Models, with an Application to Price Dynamics in Commodity Spot and Futures Markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cavaliere, Giuseppe; Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard; Taylor, A.M. Robert

    Empirical evidence from time series methods which assume the usual I(0)/I(1) paradigm suggests that the efficient market hypothesis, stating that spot and futures prices of a commodity should cointegrate with a unit slope on futures prices, does not hold. However, these statistical methods...... fractionally integrated model we are able to find a body of evidence in support of the efficient market hypothesis for a number of commodities. Our new tests are wild bootstrap implementations of score-based tests for the order of integration of a fractionally integrated time series. These tests are designed...... principle do. A Monte Carlo simulation study demonstrates that very significant improvements infinite sample behaviour can be obtained by the bootstrap vis-à-vis the corresponding asymptotic tests in both heteroskedastic and homoskedastic environments....

  12. Hedging Price Risks of Farmers by Commodity Boards: A Simulation Applied to the Indian Natural Rubber Market

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zant, W.

    2001-01-01

    This paper investigates a hypothetical hedging scheme in a domestic commodity market under which a commodity board offers a forward contract to domestic producers and local traders and covers its commitments on an international futures exchange. It is aimed to quantify welfare gains to agents in the

  13. LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas): the natural gas becoming a world commodity and creating international price references; GNL (Gas Natural Liquefeito): o gas natural se tornando uma commodity mundial e criando referencias de preco internacionais

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Demori, Marcio Bastos [PETROBRAS, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Coordenacao de Comercializacao de Gas e GNL; Santos, Edmilson Moutinho dos [Universidade de Sao Paulo (USP), SP (Brazil). Inst. de Eletrotecnica e Energia. Programa Interunidades de Pos-Graduacao em Energia (PIPGE)

    2004-07-01

    The transportation of large quantities of natural gas through long distances has been done more frequently by Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG). The increase of natural gas demand and the distance of major reserves, allied to technological improvements and cost reduction through LNG supply chain, have triggered the expressive increase of LNG world market This paper tries to evaluate the influence that LNG should cause on natural gas world market dynamic, analyzing the tendency of gas to become a world commodity, creating international price references, like oil and its derivates. For this, are shown data as natural gas world reserves, the participation of LNG in natural gas world market and their increase. Furthermore, will be analyzed the interaction between major natural gas reserves and their access to major markets, still considering scheduled LNG projects, the following impacts from their implementation and price arbitrage that should be provoked on natural gas markets. (author)

  14. Cross-commodity hedges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simard, T.

    1999-01-01

    Energy risk management is the principal topic of this paper. Four major subjects are examined: cross-commodity trading objectives (reduce the risk of an underlying exposure in another commodity); portfolio risk reduction (an Alberta power distributor exposed to high pool prices could protect against high pool prices through a fixed price purchase of Alberta natural gas); tailoring pricing to customer needs (sell power to the gas producer indexed to the price of gas); and (4) reducing insurance costs (rather than purchasing downside protection (puts) individually against oil and gas prices, a producer could purchase a basket option). Since the key issue in cross-commodity transactions is the estimation of correlation, it is important to be prepared to alter correlation assumptions. 1 tab., 2 figs

  15. The rising price of oil: a window of opportunity for some Central American and Caribbean countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lizardi, Carlos Guerrero de; Padilla-Perez, Ramon

    2010-11-01

    This research paper analyzes the direct impact of the rising price of oil on shipping costs of any product to any point in the United States from Central America, Mexico or the Dominican Republic (CAM-DR) versus products from Asia. First, the study provides a brief description of the commercial opening of the countries analyzed and the liberalization of their markets. Second, it analyzes the evolution of the competitiveness of selected countries in the U.S. import market. Third, the study presents an analysis for each product. The hypothesis of this study is that geographical distance will be increasingly key. It is recommended that enhance shipping procedures and time (transit and container stay) be enhanced by simplifying customs procedures and improving port infrastructure. By expanding and improving road and rail infrastructures, countries could reduce shipping costs within their own territories. Besides, to avoid significant gain or loss in market share, it is recommended that the current tariff gaps be maintained or better still, expanded. Furthermore, forming strategic alliances could help producers lower the prices of their exported manufactured products.

  16. Stochastic price modeling of high volatility, mean-reverting, spike-prone commodities: The Australian wholesale spot electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Higgs, Helen; Worthington, Andrew

    2008-01-01

    It is commonly known that wholesale spot electricity markets exhibit high price volatility, strong mean-reversion and frequent extreme price spikes. This paper employs a basic stochastic model, a mean-reverting model and a regime-switching model to capture these features in the Australian national electricity market (NEM), comprising the interconnected markets of New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia and Victoria. Daily spot prices from 1 January 1999 to 31 December 2004 are employed. The results show that the regime-switching model outperforms the basic stochastic and mean-reverting models. Electricity prices are also found to exhibit stronger mean-reversion after a price spike than in the normal period, and price volatility is more than fourteen times higher in spike periods than in normal periods. The probability of a spike on any given day ranges between 5.16% in NSW and 9.44% in Victoria

  17. LDC commodity risk analysis and recommendations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-01-01

    Under the current operation of the new competitive electricity market in Ontario, local distribution companies (LDCs) are required to pay the monthly invoice of the Independent Market Operator (IMO) before they collect from end-users for the consumption period covered by the invoice, with no clear guarantee that the recovery will occur. This situation creates a major cash flow problem and financial risk for LDCs and threatens the integrity and stability of the electricity market. This paper described 3 features of Ontario's competitive electricity market that create financial and commodity risk. The first problem is that there is no limit on how high prices can rise. Increases in wholesale commodity prices can result in a situation where the amount of the IMO's invoice is greater than the LDC's ability to pay at the time of receipt. Secondly, the LDC bears a 100 per cent payment obligation to the IMO administrator of the wholesale market. The third problem is that LDCs bear payment default risk from all consumers in the Ontario market, including electricity retailers. This paper presents some specific policy solutions that can protect the market from this threat. It was suggested that in order to protect the integrity of Ontario's electricity market during high prices, a policy must be drafted to address the commodity price financing risk (CPFR) issue. The policy must also define what happens if prices increase past the LDCs financing obligation limit. tabs., figs

  18. Research on the Pricing of Bundling Information Commodity%信息产品的捆绑定价问题研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    毛彦妮; 王刊良; 王龙伟

    2003-01-01

    This article studies the characteristics of low marginal cost of information commodity and points out that bundling information commodity is surprisingly profitable. After an analysis of the three factors affecting the sales income of bundling information commodity, that is, marginal cost, distribution of consumer' s valuation of bundling commodity and bundling size, a marketing strategy for bundling information commodity is proposed.

  19. U.S., non-U.S. outlays to rise in '98, but oil price plunge clouds spending outlook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beck, R.J.

    1998-01-01

    Capital spending by oil and gas companies in and outside the US will rise in 1998, but that forecast may be jeopardized by the continuing plunge in oil prices. For operations in the US, oil and gas company capital spending is expected to move up in 1998 for the fourth year in a row. If the money is spent, it will be the highest industry investment level since 1985. Strong oil and gas prices and increased volumes have boosted company cash flow and profits the last few years, fueling increased spending. However, the near-term outlook has now been clouded by economic turmoil in a number of Asian countries and the recent collapse of oil prices. The paper discusses oil and gas prices, US upstream spending, US non-exploration and production spending, capital spending in Canada, and spending outside US and Canada

  20. Evaluation of long-term natural gas marketing agreements: An application of commodity forward and option pricing theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salahor, G.S.; Laughton, D.G.

    1993-01-01

    Methods that have been empirically validated in the analysis of short-term traded securities are adapted to evaluate long-term natural gas direct-sale contracts. A sample contract is examined from the perspective of the producer, and analyzed as a series of forward and option contracts. The assessment of contract value is based on the gas price forecast, the volatility in that forecast, and the valuation of risk caused by that volatility. The method presented allows the gas producer to quantify these elements, and to evaluate the variety of terms encountered in direct-sale natural gas agreements, including features such as load factors and penalty charges. The analysis uses as inputs a probabilistic price forecast and a determination of a price of risk for gas prices. Once the forecast volatility is derived from the probabilistic forecast, the forward contracts imbedded in the long-term gas contract can be valued with a risk-discounting model, and optional aspects can be evaluated using the Black-Scholes option pricing method. 10 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs

  1. Comparing branch-and-price algorithms for the Multi-Commodity k-splittable Maximum Flow Problem

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gamst, Mette; Petersen, Bjørn

    2012-01-01

    -Protocol Label Switching. The problem has previously been solved to optimality through branch-and-price. In this paper we propose two exact solution methods both based on an alternative decomposition. The two methods differ in their branching strategy. The first method, which branches on forbidden edge sequences...

  2. The effect of rising food prices on food consumption: systematic review with meta-regression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Rosemary; Cornelsen, Laura; Dangour, Alan D; Turner, Rachel; Shankar, Bhavani; Mazzocchi, Mario; Smith, Richard D

    2013-06-17

    To quantify the relation between food prices and the demand for food with specific reference to national and household income levels. Systematic review with meta-regression. Online databases of peer reviewed and grey literature (ISI Web of Science, EconLit, PubMed, Medline, AgEcon, Agricola, Google, Google Scholar, IdeasREPEC, Eldis, USAID, United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, World Bank, International Food Policy Research Institute), hand searched reference lists, and contact with authors. We included cross sectional, cohort, experimental, and quasi-experimental studies with English abstracts. Eligible studies used nationally representative data from 1990 onwards derived from national aggregate data sources, household surveys, or supermarket and home scanners. The primary outcome extracted from relevant papers was the quantification of the demand for foods in response to changes in food price (own price food elasticities). Descriptive and study design variables were extracted for use as covariates in analysis. We conducted meta-regressions to assess the effect of income levels between and within countries on the strength of the relation between food price and demand, and predicted price elasticities adjusted for differences across studies. 136 studies reporting 3495 own price food elasticities from 162 different countries were identified. Our models predict that increases in the price of all foods result in greater reductions in food consumption in poor countries: in low and high income countries, respectively, a 1% increase in the price of cereals results in reductions in consumption of 0.61% (95% confidence interval 0.56% to 0.66%) and 0.43% (0.36% to 0.48%), and a 1% increase in the price of meat results in reductions in consumption of 0.78% (0.73% to 0.83%) and 0.60% (0.54% to 0.66%). Within all countries, our models predict that poorer households will be the most adversely affected by increases in food prices. Changes in global food prices will

  3. Justification of directions of technological and price audit systems changes for the purpose of high-rise construction innovating

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogacheva, Yana; Panenkov, Andrey; Petrikova, Zinaida; Nezhnikova, Ekaterina

    2018-03-01

    Improving the quality of high-rise buildings under modern conditions should be based not only on compliance with the norms of technical regulations, but also on ensuring energy efficiency, environmental friendliness, and intellectuality, which can be achieved only through the introduction of innovations at all stages of the life cycle of the investment project. Authors of this article justified the need for a mechanism of technological and price audit of projects. They also suggested the model of life cycle of organizational and economic changes, connected with implantation of the mechanism of projects audit. They showed innovation character of ecological high-rise construction for the whole life cycle. Authors also made proposals to change the audit system for high-rise construction projects in the focus of its environmental friendliness.

  4. Justification of directions of technological and price audit systems changes for the purpose of high-rise construction innovating

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rogacheva Yana

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Improving the quality of high-rise buildings under modern conditions should be based not only on compliance with the norms of technical regulations, but also on ensuring energy efficiency, environmental friendliness, and intellectuality, which can be achieved only through the introduction of innovations at all stages of the life cycle of the investment project. Authors of this article justified the need for a mechanism of technological and price audit of projects. They also suggested the model of life cycle of organizational and economic changes, connected with implantation of the mechanism of projects audit. They showed innovation character of ecological high-rise construction for the whole life cycle. Authors also made proposals to change the audit system for high-rise construction projects in the focus of its environmental friendliness.

  5. Oil prices and the rise and fall of the U.S. real exchange rate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amano, R.A.; Norden, S. van.

    1993-12-01

    It is examined whether a link exists between oil price shocks and the U.S. real effective exchange rate. Data used for the study are described and their time series properties and the long-run explanatory power of oil prices for the real exchange rate are examined. Apparent causal relationships between exchange rates and oil prices are examined. An unrestricted error correction model is reduced until an error correction model with reasonable properties is derived. Results show that the two variables appear to be cointegrated and that causality runs from oil prices to the exchange rate and not vice-versa. The single equation error correction model linking these two variables is stable and captures much of the in- and out-of-sample movement in the exchange rate in dynamic simulation. Tests are presented to show that the error correction model has significant post-sample predictive ability for both the size and sign of changes in the real effective exchange rate. The results suggest that oil prices may have been the dominant source of persistant real exchange rate shocks over the post-Bretton Woods period and that energy prices may have important implications for future work on exchange rate behaviour. 61 refs., 3 figs., 7 tabs

  6. Australian retail electricity prices: Can we avoid repeating the rising trend of the past?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Graham, Paul W.; Brinsmead, Thomas; Hatfield-Dodds, Steve

    2015-01-01

    After a stable or declining real trend that persisted for more than half a century, Australian retail electricity prices have experienced a substantial increase, in real terms, since 2007. This has mainly been driven by increases in the cost of electricity distribution and to a lesser degree in the cost of electricity generation. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions, which is a bipartisan political goal in Australia, will likely deliver further increases in generation costs due to the expected higher cost of low emission technology. Participating in global negotiations on emission reduction targets and designing efficient policy mechanisms have been a major focus of governments over the last several decades. In contrast, managing distribution system costs has received less attention. While there were a number of factors which drove historical increases in distribution costs, management of peak demand growth could help contain or reduce the extent to which consumers, particularly households, experience further increases in distribution costs. The paper demonstrates how different combinations of carbon price and peak demand scenarios could impact future residential and industrial retail electricity prices to 2050 and discusses some behavioural and technological solutions to manage peak demand and potential barriers to their deployment. - Highlights: • We identify the causes of the increase in Australian retail electricity prices. • We identify two sources of likely further cost pressures on electricity prices. • We estimate future retail electricity prices under five scenarios. • We discuss barriers and solutions to controlling peak demand growth.

  7. U.S. Trade Deficit and the Impact of Rising Oil Prices

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Jackson, James K

    2008-01-01

    .... The fall in the cost of energy imports combined with the drop in import volumes as a result of the slowdown in economic activity has reversed the trend of rising energy imports costs and will sharply...

  8. As Food Prices Rise, Setting Menus Is Cause of Heartburn for Schools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samuels, Christina A.

    2008-01-01

    With food and fuel prices increasing sharply, food and nutrition directors in school districts around the country are finding themselves facing some uncomfortable choices. In some districts, school lunch menus are being pared down to fewer selections, instead of the array of healthy options districts would like to offer. In other areas, canned and…

  9. 30 CFR 203.48 - Do I keep royalty relief if prices rise significantly?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... and entirely less than 400 meters deep, on any date, $4.55 per MMBtu, adjusted annually after calendar... price is . . . (1) Partly or entirely less than 200 meters deep, before December 18, 2008, $10.15 per... meters deep, after December 18, 2008, $4.55 per MMBtu, adjusted annually after calendar year 2007 for...

  10. 30 CFR 203.36 - Do I keep royalty relief if prices rise significantly?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 200 meters deep and entirely less than 400 meters deep. (3) $4.08 per MMBtu (i) The first 20 BCF of... less than 400 meters of water, the $4.55 per MMBtu price threshold applies to the whole RSV (see... that is located in water partly or entirely less than 200 meters deep issued before December 18, 2008...

  11. Does Accessibility to the Central Business District (CBD Have an Impact on High-Rise Condominium Price Gradient in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dziauddin Mohd Faris

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper uses a spatial econometric method known as Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR to investigate the impact of accessibility to the CBD on the high-rise condominium price gradient in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Using a GWR method, after having controlled other factors, this study clearly reveal the impact of accessibility to the CBD on high-rise condominium varying prices across the study area, having a much larger positive impact in some areas but less and counterintuitive impact in others. In general, the results from this study show accessibility to the CBD measured by the travel times does affect high-rise condominium prices (high-rise condominium prices decrease as travel times to the CBD increase in most part of the areas, hence proved Alonso, Muth and Mills were still right.

  12. Role of Indian Commodity Derivatives Market in Hedging Price Risk: Estimation of Constant and Dynamic Hedge Ratio, and Hedging Effectiveness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brajesh Kumar

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available This  paper  examines  hedging  effectiveness  of  four  agricultural  (soybean,  corn,  castor seed and guar seed and seven non-agricultural (gold, silver, aluminium, copper, zinc, crude oil  and,  natural  gas  futures  contracts  traded  in  India,  using  VECM  and  CCC-MGARCH model to estimate constant hedge ratio and dynamic hedge ratios, respectively. We ind that agricultural  futures  contracts  provide  higher  hedging  effectiveness  (30-70%  as  compared to  non-agricultural  futures  (20%.  In  the  more  recent  period,  the  hedging  effectiveness  of Indian futures markets has increased. When hedging effectiveness of non-agricultural Indian futures  contracts  with  the  world  spot  markets  (NYMEX  and  LME  is  analyzed,  hedging effectiveness  increases  dramatically  which  indicates  the  fact  that  Indian  futures  contracts are more effective for hedging exposures to global prices. Other reasons of lower hedging effectiveness  of  Indian  futures  contracts  may  be  low  awareness  of  futures  markets  among participants,  high  transaction  costs  in  the  futures  markets,  policy  restrictions,  inadequate contract design, or high transaction costs in the spot market. These are, of course, expected birth pays for a nascent futures markets in an emerging economy. ";} // -->activate javascript

  13. Costly energy : why oil and gas prices are rising and what we can do about it : a collection of progressive analysis and policy alternatives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klein, S.

    2001-02-01

    A collection of essays were presented to address the issue of rising oil and gas prices. This issue has significant social and environmental implications and the public wants to know what is driving prices up and who is profiting. The myth that gas taxes are driving price increases was dispelled. It was argued that price hikes are mainly due to crude oil price increases and to refining and marketing price increases. The link between rising prices and free trade was also emphasized. The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) tied Canada into a North American energy market in which U.S. demand sets prices in Canada. It was suggested that trade rules regarding energy should be changed. Other short and longer-term progressive policy alternatives were also presented in the second part of this report. One possible short-term policy response would be to tax windfall oil and gas profits and direct the resulting revenues to rebates for low-income households and for energy conservation initiatives. It was noted that the environmental benefit of rising prices is that it encourages conservation and improved fuel efficiency. The final part of this report discussed the issue of protecting electricity from deregulation and sited lessons learned from the deregulation of natural gas. 2 tabs., 4 figs

  14. The Impact of the Rise in Vegetable Prices on Vegetable Producer Behavior–Based on the survey of vegetable producers in Jiayu, Hubei Province

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liu Pan

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to study the impact of the rise in prices of vegetables on vegetable producers, and to increase the revenue of vegetable producers, this paper does a survey by anonymous sampling questionnaire. Results shows that: most vegetable growers think that vegetable prices should rise and would continue to rise, and that vegetable prices would increase their revenue, thus in the coming year they would expand the planting scale of vegetable variety whose increase rate is the largest in this year. But because of the increase of logistics costs and production costs, some farmers benefit very little from the rising trend of vegetable prices. Most farmers expect too much in the trend estimation of the prices of vegetables and also lack of planning and forward-looking in production, thus the planting area of single variety is often decided by the market of previous year. According to analysis of the impact of the rise in vegetable prices on vegetable producer behavior, this paper gives the following suggestions to increase revenue of vegetable producers: change the mode of thinking, improve rural information platform, and increase capital investment for vegetable production base.

  15. Outlook '98 - Commodity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simard, T.

    1998-01-01

    Canadian oil and natural gas producers'' participation in commodity and foreign exchange markets to alter the pricing characteristics of their commodity portfolios was reviewed. It was concluded that through the various risk management structures available from financial and physical market participants, Canadian oil and gas producers retain the ongoing ability to design, pro-actively, their desired exposure to oil and gas prices. Various industry-wide re-examination of risk management programs have taken place during the past two years. Based on these studies, the industry anticipates material volatility in West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil and Alberta natural gas prices throughout 1998. Furthermore, there is considerable uncertainty surrounding the price differentials between WTI crude and Canadian oil streams, and between Alberta gas prices and other North American regional gas markets. Against this background of uncertainty, it is reasonable to predict that companies will use risk management strategies in an effort to outperform industry average prices, thereby ensuring that pro-active risk management activity will continue throughout 1998

  16. Influence of gender roles and rising food prices on poor, pregnant women's eating and food provisioning practices in Dhaka, Bangladesh.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levay, Adrienne V; Mumtaz, Zubia; Faiz Rashid, Sabina; Willows, Noreen

    2013-09-26

    Maternal malnutrition in Bangladesh is a persistent health issue and is the product of a number of complex factors, including adherence to food 'taboos' and a patriarchal gender order that limits women's mobility and decision-making. The recent global food price crisis is also negatively impacting poor pregnant women's access to food. It is believed that those who are most acutely affected by rising food prices are the urban poor. While there is an abundance of useful quantitative research centered on maternal nutrition and food insecurity measurements in Bangladesh, missing is an understanding of how food insecurity is experienced by people who are most vulnerable, the urban ultra-poor. In particular, little is known of the lived experience of food insecurity among pregnant women in this context. This research investigated these lived experiences by exploring food provisioning strategies of urban, ultra-poor, pregnant women. This knowledge is important as discussions surrounding the creation of new development goals are currently underway. Using a focused-ethnographic approach, household food provisioning experiences were explored. Data from participant observation, a focus group discussion and semi-structured interviews were collected in an urban slum in Dhaka, Bangladesh. Interviews were undertaken with 28 participants including 12 pregnant women and new mothers, two husbands, nine non-pregnant women, and five health care workers. The key findings are: 1) women were aware of the importance of good nutrition and demonstrated accurate, biomedically-based knowledge of healthy eating practices during pregnancy; 2) the normative gender rules that have traditionally constrained women's access to nutritional resources are relaxing in the urban setting; however 3) women are challenged in accessing adequate quality and quantities of food due to the increase in food prices at the market. Rising food prices and resultant food insecurity due to insufficient incomes are

  17. Bad weather for the IPCC: from Nobel price to affairs, rise and fall of climate experts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dubuis, E.

    2010-01-01

    The intergovernmental panel on climate change, IPCC, or GIEC in French, has become in 20 years one of the most influent organization in the world. Awarded by the Nobel price of peace in 2007, this expression of the United Nations has succeeded in setting the fight against global warming at the top of the international political agenda, in particular during the 2009 Copenhagen meeting. What are the keys of this success? The IPCC has announced a global warming with disastrous effects, where floods would combine with dryness periods, epidemics and other natural disasters. Such a dark picture cannot leave anyone indifferent and allows the IPCC to encourage the humanity to drastically change its consumption habits and limit its way of life. However, to raise such fears and ask for such sacrifices, an organization like the IPCC must be irreproachable. And here is the problem reported in this book: the IPCC has shown its weaknesses, has made mistakes, has used unappropriated methods and miscasting personnel, has been uncapable to explain the complexness of the climate question and has felt reticent about the recognition of its mistakes. Revealed between fall 2009 and winter 2010, these failures have shaken the credibility of the organization to such a point that the UN requested an expertise to judge its own experts. (J.S.)

  18. The Effects of Rising Interest Rates on Electric Utility Stock Prices: Regulatory Considerations and Approaches

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kihm, Steve [Seventhwave, Madison, WI (United States); Satchwell, Andrew [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Cappers, Peter [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2017-07-26

    This technical brief identifies conditions under which utility regulators should consider implementing policy approaches that seek to mitigate negative outcomes due to an increase in interest rates. Interest rates are a key factor in determining a utility’s cost of equity and investors find value when returns exceed the cost of equity. Through historical observations of periods of rising and falling interest rates and application of a pro forma financial tool, we identify the key drivers of utility stock valuations and estimate the degree to which those valuations might be affected by increasing interest rates.3 We also analyze the efficacy of responses by utility regulators to mitigate potential negative financial impacts. We find that regulators have several possible approaches to mitigate a decline in value in an environment of increasing interest rates, though regulators must weigh the tradeoffs of improving investor value with potential increases in customer costs. Furthermore, the range of approaches reflects today’s many different electric utility regulatory models and regulatory responses to a decline in investor value will fit within state-specific models.

  19. Gold prices

    OpenAIRE

    Joseph G. Haubrich

    1998-01-01

    The price of gold commands attention because it serves as an indicator of general price stability or inflation. But gold is also a commodity, used in jewelry and by industry, so demand and supply affect its pricing and need to be considered when gold is a factor in monetary policy decisions.

  20. A Descriptive Analysis of Supply Factors and Prices for USDA Foods in the National School Lunch Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peterson, Cora

    2010-01-01

    Purpose/Objectives: Schools that participate in the National School Lunch Program (NSLP) receive a portion of their annual federal funding as commodity entitlement foods--now called USDA Foods--rather than cash payments. Due to rising food prices in recent years, it has been recommended that schools compare the costs and benefits of commodity and…

  1. 17 CFR 32.3 - Unlawful commodity option transactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Unlawful commodity option... REGULATION OF COMMODITY OPTION TRANSACTIONS § 32.3 Unlawful commodity option transactions. (a) On and after... extend credit in lieu thereof) from an option customer as payment of the purchase price in connection...

  2. The stochastic seasonal behavior of energy commodity convenience yields

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mirantes, Andrés García; Población, Javier; Serna, Gregorio

    2013-01-01

    This paper contributes to the commodity pricing literature by consistently modeling the convenience yield with its empirically observed properties. Specifically, in this paper, we show how a four-factor model for the stochastic behavior of commodity prices, with two long- and short-term factors and two additional seasonal factors, may accommodate some of the most important empirically observed characteristics of commodity convenience yields, such as the mean reversion and stochastic seasonality. Based on this evidence, a theoretical model is presented and estimated to characterize the commodity convenience yield dynamics that are consistent with previous findings. We also show that commodity price seasonality is better estimated through convenience yields than through futures prices. - Highlights: • Energy commodity convenience yields exhibit mean reversion and stochastic seasonality. • We present a model for convenience yields accounting for their observed characteristics. • Commodity price seasonality is better estimated through convenience yields

  3. Determinants of food price inflation in Finland—The role of energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Irz, Xavier; Niemi, Jyrki; Liu, Xing

    2013-01-01

    The agricultural commodity crisis of 2006–2008 and the recent evolution of commodity markets have reignited anxieties in Finland over fast-rising food prices and food security. Little is known about the strength of the linkages between food markets and input markets, such as the energy market. Using monthly series of price indices from 1995 to 2010, we estimate a vector error-correction (VEC) model in a cointegration framework in order to investigate the short-term and long-term dynamics of food price formation. The results indicate that a statistically significant long-run equilibrium relationship exists between the prices of food and those of the main variable inputs consumed by the food chain, namely agricultural commodities, labour, and energy. When judged by the magnitude of long-run pass-through rates, farm prices represent the main determinant of food prices, followed by wages in food retail and the price of energy. The parsimonious VEC model suggests that the dynamics of food price formation are dominated by a relatively quick process of adjustment to the long-run equilibrium, the half life of the transitional dynamics being six to eight months following a shock. - Highlights: • We investigate the dynamics of food price formation in Finland. • We establish the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between the prices of food, energy, agricultural commodities, and wages. • Energy price plays a significant but limited role in determining the equilibrium level of food prices

  4. The resilience of the Indian economy to rising oil prices as a validation test for a global energy-environment-economy CGE model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guivarch, C.; Hallegatte, St.; Crassous, R.

    2008-09-01

    This paper proposes to test the global hybrid computable general equilibrium model IMACLIM-R against macro-economic data. To do so, it compares the modeled and observed responses of the Indian economy to the rise of oil price during the 2003-2006 period. The objective is twofold: first, to disentangle the various mechanisms and policies at play in India's economy response to rising oil prices and, second, to validate our model as a tool capable of reproducing short-run statistical data. With default parametrization, the model predicts a significant decrease in the Indian growth rate that is not observed. However, this discrepancy is corrected if three additional mechanisms identified by the International Monetary Fund are introduced, namely the rise in exports of refined oil products, the imbalance of the trade balance allowed by large capital inflows, and the incomplete pass-through of the oil price increase to Indian customers. This work is a first step toward model validation, and provides interesting insights on the modeling methodology relevant to represent an economy's response to a shock, as well as on how short-term mechanisms - and policy action - can smooth the negative impacts of energy price shocks or climate policies. (authors)

  5. The resilience of the Indian economy to rising oil prices as a validation test for a global energy-environment-economy CGE model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guivarch, Celine; Hallegatte, Stephane; Crassous, Renaud

    2009-01-01

    This paper proposes to test the global hybrid computable general equilibrium model IMACLIM-R against macroeconomic data. To do so, it compares the modeled and observed responses of the Indian economy to the rise of oil price during the 2003-2006 period. The objective is twofold: first, to disentangle the various mechanisms and policies at play in India's economy response to rising oil prices and, second, to validate our model as a tool capable of reproducing short-run statistical data. With default parameterization, the model predicts a significant decrease in the Indian growth rate that is not observed. However, this discrepancy is corrected if three additional mechanisms identified by the International Monetary Fund are introduced, namely the rise in exports of refined oil products, the imbalance of the trade balance allowed by large capital inflows, and the incomplete pass-through of the oil price increase to Indian customers. This work is a first step toward model validation, and provides interesting insights on the modeling methodology relevant to represent an economy's response to a shock, as well as on how short-term mechanisms - and policy action - can smooth the negative impacts of energy price shocks or climate policies. (author)

  6. Quantifying the impact of rising food prices on child mortality in India: a cross-district statistical analysis of the District Level Household Survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fledderjohann, Jasmine; Vellakkal, Sukumar; Khan, Zaky; Ebrahim, Shah; Stuckler, David

    2016-04-01

    Rates of child malnutrition and mortality in India remain high. We tested the hypothesis that rising food prices are contributing to India's slow progress in improving childhood survival. Using rounds 2 and 3 (2002-08) of the Indian District Level Household Survey, we calculated neonatal, infant and under-five mortality rates in 364 districts, and merged these with district-level food price data from the National Sample Survey Office. Multivariate models were estimated, stratified into 27 less deprived states and territories and 8 deprived states ('Empowered Action Groups'). Between 2002 and 2008, the real price of food in India rose by 11.7%. A 1% increase in total food prices was associated with a 0.49% increase in neonatal (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.13% to 0.85%), but not infant or under-five mortality rates. Disaggregating by type of food and level of deprivation, in the eight deprived states, we found an elevation in neonatal mortality rates of 0.33% for each 1% increase in the price of meat (95% CI: 0.06% to 0.60%) and 0.10% for a 1% increase in dairy (95% CI: 0.01% to 0.20%). We also detected an adverse association of the price of dairy with infant (b = 0.09%; 95% CI: 0.01% to 0.16%) and under-five mortality rates (b = 0.10%; 95% CI: 0.03% to 0.17%). These associations were not detected in less deprived states and territories. Rising food prices, particularly of high-protein meat and dairy products, were associated with worse child mortality outcomes. These adverse associations were concentrated in the most deprived states. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association.

  7. Price

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1991-01-01

    The price terms in wheeling contracts very substantially, reflecting the differing conditions affecting the parties contracting for the service. These terms differ in the manner in which rates are calculated, the formulas used, and the philosophy underlying the accord. For example, and EEI study found that firm wheeling rates ranged from 20 cents to $1.612 per kilowatt per month. Nonfirm rates ranged from .15 mills to 5.25 mills per kilowatt-hour. The focus in this chapter is on cost-based rates, reflecting the fact that the vast majority of existing contracts are based on rate designs reflecting embedded costs. This situation may change in the future, but, for now, this fact can't be ignored

  8. Understanding gasoline pricing in Canada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    2001-01-01

    Pricing policies for gasoline by Canadian oil companies are discussed. An attempt is made to demonstrate that competition between oil companies is extremely keen, and markups are so small that to stay in business, retail outlets have to sell huge volumes and sell non-fuel products, as a means to increase revenues and margins. An explanation is provided for why gasoline prices move in unison, and why what appears to the public as collusion and gouging is, in fact, the result of retail dealers attempting to stay in business. The high prices are attributed mainly to taxes by municipalities, the provinces and the federal government; taxes are said to account for 40 to 50 per cent of the pump price. The cost of crude makes up another 35 to 45 per cent, refining adds 10 to 15 per cent, with the remaining 5 to 10 per cent representing retail costs. (Taxes in the United States average 20 to 30 per cent). Over the longer term, gasoline prices consistently reflect the cost of crude oil, dominated by the OPEC countries which supply about 41 per cent of daily world production. Another factor is the rise of global and regional commodity markets for refined products such as gasoline. Commodity traders buy wholesale gasoline cheaply whenever it is in oversupply, and sell it for a profit into markets where the demand is greater. While this is claimed to ensure competitive prices in all markets, the practice can also trigger abrupt changes in regional markets

  9. The effects of a rise in cigarette price on cigarette consumption, tobacco taxation revenues, and of smoking-related deaths in 28 EU countries-- applying threshold regression modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chun-Yuan Yeh

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background European Union public healthcare expenditure on treating smoking and attributable diseases is estimated at over €25bn annually. The reduction of tobacco consumption has thus become one of the major social policies of the EU. This study investigates the effects of price hikes on cigarette consumption, tobacco tax revenues and smoking-caused deaths in 28 EU countries. Methods Employing panel data for the years 2005 to 2014 from Euromonitor International, the World Bank and the World Health Organization, we used income as a threshold variable and applied threshold regression modelling to estimate the elasticity of cigarette prices and to simulate the effect of price fluctuations. Results The results showed that there was an income threshold effect on cigarette prices in the 28 EU countries that had a gross national income (GNI per capita lower than US$5418, with a maximum cigarette price elasticity of −1.227. The results of the simulated analysis showed that a rise of 10% in cigarette price would significantly reduce cigarette consumption as well the total death toll caused by smoking in all the observed countries, but would be most effective in Bulgaria and Romania, followed by Latvia and Poland. Additionally, an increase in the number of MPOWER tobacco control policies at the highest level of achievment would help reduce cigarette consumption. Conclusions It is recommended that all EU countries levy higher tobacco taxes to increase cigarette prices, and thus in effect reduce cigarette consumption. The subsequent increase in tobacco tax revenues would be instrumental in covering expenditures related to tobacco prevention and control programs.

  10. The effects of a rise in cigarette price on cigarette consumption, tobacco taxation revenues, and of smoking-related deaths in 28 EU countries-- applying threshold regression modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeh, Chun-Yuan; Schafferer, Christian; Lee, Jie-Min; Ho, Li-Ming; Hsieh, Chi-Jung

    2017-09-21

    European Union public healthcare expenditure on treating smoking and attributable diseases is estimated at over €25bn annually. The reduction of tobacco consumption has thus become one of the major social policies of the EU. This study investigates the effects of price hikes on cigarette consumption, tobacco tax revenues and smoking-caused deaths in 28 EU countries. Employing panel data for the years 2005 to 2014 from Euromonitor International, the World Bank and the World Health Organization, we used income as a threshold variable and applied threshold regression modelling to estimate the elasticity of cigarette prices and to simulate the effect of price fluctuations. The results showed that there was an income threshold effect on cigarette prices in the 28 EU countries that had a gross national income (GNI) per capita lower than US$5418, with a maximum cigarette price elasticity of -1.227. The results of the simulated analysis showed that a rise of 10% in cigarette price would significantly reduce cigarette consumption as well the total death toll caused by smoking in all the observed countries, but would be most effective in Bulgaria and Romania, followed by Latvia and Poland. Additionally, an increase in the number of MPOWER tobacco control policies at the highest level of achievment would help reduce cigarette consumption. It is recommended that all EU countries levy higher tobacco taxes to increase cigarette prices, and thus in effect reduce cigarette consumption. The subsequent increase in tobacco tax revenues would be instrumental in covering expenditures related to tobacco prevention and control programs.

  11. Application of Markov Model in Crude Oil Price Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nuhu Isah

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Crude oil is an important energy commodity to mankind. Several causes have made crude oil prices to be volatile. The fluctuation of crude oil prices has affected many related sectors and stock market indices. Hence, forecasting the crude oil prices is essential to avoid the future prices of the non-renewable natural resources to rise. In this study, daily crude oil prices data was obtained from WTI dated 2 January to 29 May 2015. We used Markov Model (MM approach in forecasting the crude oil prices. In this study, the analyses were done using EViews and Maple software where the potential of this software in forecasting daily crude oil prices time series data was explored. Based on the study, we concluded that MM model is able to produce accurate forecast based on a description of history patterns in crude oil prices.

  12. Commodity Alliance Model – An Option for Advancing Private and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Commodity Alliance Model – An Option for Advancing Private and Commercial ... that ensure adequate value addition and ultimate remunerative price for farmers' ... and integrating them in terms of fair price determination, information flow and ...

  13. Energy versus economic effectiveness in CHP (combined heat and power) applications: Investigation on the critical role of commodities price, taxation and power grid mix efficiency

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Comodi, Gabriele; Rossi, Mosè

    2016-01-01

    Starting from PES (primary energy saving) and CSR (cost saving ratio) definitions the work pinpoints a “grey area” in which CHP (combined heat and power – cogeneration) units can operate with profit and negative PES. In this case, CHP can be profitably operated with lower efficiency with respect to separate production of electrical and thermal energy. The work defines the R-index as the ratio between the cost of fuel and electricity. The optimal value of R-index for which CHP units operate with both environmental benefit (PES > 0) and economic profitability (CSR > 0) is the reference value of electrical efficiency, η_e_l_-_r_e_f, of separate production (national power grid mix). As a consequence, optimal R-index varies from Country to Country. The work demonstrates that the value of R corresponds to the minimum value of electrical efficiency for which any power generator operates with profit. The paper demonstrates that, with regard to the profitability of cogeneration, the ratio between the cost of commodities is more important than their absolute value so that different taxation of each commodity can be a good leverage for energy policy makers to promote high efficiency cogeneration, even in the absence of an incentive mechanism. The final part of the study presents an analysis on micro-CHP technologies payback times for different European Countries. - Highlights: • Investigation of the grey area where CHP profitably operates also with negative PES. • Study starts from definition of primary energy saving PES and cost saving ratio CSR. • Definition of the R-index as the ratio between the cost of fuel and electricity. • The optimal value of R for which the “grey area” disappears is R = η_e_l_-_r_e_f. • R is also the value of η_e_l for which any electric generator profitably operates.

  14. Revisiting short-term price and volatility dynamics in day-ahead electricity markets with rising wind power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Yuanjing

    2015-01-01

    This paper revisits the short-term price and volatility dynamics in day-ahead electricity markets in consideration of an increasing share of wind power, using an example of the Nord Pool day-ahead market and the Danish wind generation. To do so, a GARCH process is applied, and market coupling and the counterbalance effect of hydropower in the Scandinavian countries are additionally accounted for. As results, we found that wind generation weakly dampens spot prices with an elasticity of 0.008 and also reduces price volatility with an elasticity of 0.02 in the Nordic day-ahead market. The results shed lights on the importance of market coupling and interactions between wind power and hydropower in the Nordic system through cross-border exchanges, which play an essential role in price stabilization. Additionally, an EGARCH specification confirms an asymmetric influence of the price innovations, whereby negative shocks produce larger volatility in the Nordic spot market. While considering heavy tails in error distributions can improve model fits significantly, the EGARCH model outperforms the GARCH model on forecast evaluations. (author)

  15. Implications of Climate Volatility for Agricultural Commodity Markets in the Presence of Biofuel Mandates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verma, M.; Diffenbaugh, N. S.; Hertel, T. W.; Beckman, J.

    2011-12-01

    In presence of bio-fuels, link between energy and agricultural commodity markets has become more complex. An increase in ethanol production to minimum 15bn gallons a year - Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) and current technically permissible maximum 10% blending limit - Blend Wall (BW); make the link even stronger. If oil prices in future do not rise significantly from their current levels, this minimum production requirement would likely be binding. In such a scenario any fluctuation in crop production will have to be absorbed by the non-ethanol usage of the crop and would translate into crop prices adjusting to clear the markets and therefore the commodity prices will be more volatile. At high oil prices it is possible that the BW may become binding, severing the link between oil prices and commodity prices as well, potentially leading to higher price volatility. Hertel and Beckman (2010) find that, with both RFS and BW simultaneously binding, corn price volatility due to supply side shocks (which could arise from extreme climate events) could be more than 50% as large as in the absence of bio-fuel policies. So energy markets are important determinants of agricultural commodity price volatility. This proposal intends to introduce the increased supply side volatility on account of climate change and volatility, in the framework. Global warming on account of increased GHG concentrations is expected to increase the intensity and frequency of hot extremes in US (Diffenbaugh et al. 2008) and therefore affect corn yields. With supply shocks expected to increase, binding RFS and BW will exacerbate the volatility, while if they are non-binding then the price changes could be cushioned. We propose to model the impacts of climate changes and volatility on commodity prices by linking three main components - a. Projections for change in temperature and precipitation using climate model b. A statistical model to predict impacts of change in climate variable on corn yields in US

  16. Anatomy of the Rise and Fall of a Price-Fixing Conspiracy: Auctions at Sotheby's and Christie's

    OpenAIRE

    Ashenfelter, Orley C; Graddy, Kathryn

    2004-01-01

    The Sotheby's/Christie's price-fixing scandal that ended in the public trial of Alfred Taubman provides a unique window on a number of key economic and antitrust policy issues related to the use of the auction system. The trial provided detailed evidence as to how the price fixing worked, and the economic conditions under which it was started and began to fall apart. The outcome of the case also provides evidence on the novel auction process used to choose the lead counsel for the civil settl...

  17. Sorting out commodity and macroeconomic risk in expected stock returns

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boons, M.F.

    2014-01-01

    The dissertation consists of three essays in asset pricing. Chapter I is motivated by the recent surge in institutional investment in commodity futures markets. The chapter studies how commodity risk is priced in stock and futures markets and asks whether this risk premium is time-varying with these

  18. A Preference-Free Formula to Value Commodity Derivatives

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rodriguez, J.C.

    2007-01-01

    This paper studies a new model of commodity prices in which the stochastic convenience yield is an affine function of past commodity returns. While preserving market completeness, the model exhibits price nonstationarity and mean reversion under the martingale measure, and, as a consequence, it is

  19. Limits to Arbitrage and Hedging: Evidence from Commodity Markets

    OpenAIRE

    Acharya, Viral V; Lochstoer, Lars; Ramadorai, Tarun

    2009-01-01

    Motivated by the literature on limits-to-arbitrage, we build an equilibrium model of commodity markets in which speculators are capital constrained, and commodity producers have hedging demands for commodity futures. Increases (decreases) in producers' hedging demand (speculators' risk-capacity) increase hedging costs via price-pressure on futures, reduce producers' inventory holdings, and thus spot prices. Consistent with our model, producers' default risk forecasts futures returns, spot pri...

  20. Oil price, biofuels and food supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Timilsina, Govinda R.; Mevel, Simon; Shrestha, Ashish

    2011-01-01

    The price of oil could play a significant role in influencing the expansion of biofuels, but this issue has yet to be fully investigated in the literature. Using a global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, this study analyzes the impact of oil price on biofuel expansion, and subsequently, on food supply. The study shows that a 65% increase in oil price in 2020 from the 2009 level would increase the global biofuel penetration to 5.4% in 2020 from 2.4% in 2009. If oil prices rise 150% from their 2009 levels by 2020, the resulting penetration of biofuels would be 9%, which is higher than that would be caused by current mandates and targets introduced in more than forty countries around the world. The study also shows that aggregate agricultural output drops due to an oil price increase, but the drop is small in major biofuel producing countries as the expansion of biofuels would partially offset the negative impacts of the oil price increase on agricultural outputs. An increase in oil price would reduce global food supply through direct impacts as well as through the diversion of food commodities and cropland towards the production of biofuels. - Highlights: ► A global CGE model to analyze impacts of oil price on biofuels and food supply. ► Global biofuel penetration increases from 2.4% (2009) to 5.4% (2020) in baseline. ► A 150% rise of oil price boosts biofuels more than current mandates and targets do. ► Biofuels partially offset drops in agricultural outputs caused by oil price rise. ► Biofuels as well as oil price rise negatively affect global food supply.

  1. Petroleum price

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maurice, J.

    2001-01-01

    The oil market is the most volatile of all markets, with the exception of the Nasdaq. It is also the biggest commodity market in the world. Therefore one cannot avoid forecasting oil prices, nor can one expect to avoid the forecasting errors that have been made in the past. In his report, Joel Maurice draws a distinction between the short term and the medium-long term in analysing the outlook for oil prices. (author)

  2. Natural Resources Management: The Effect of the Commodity Boom on Indonesia’s Industrial Development and Welfare

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Monica Wihardja

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The end of the commodity boom in 2012 once again exposed Indonesia to the vulnerability of the commodity price shocks. This article reviews how Indonesia managed its natural resources in 2001–12 and when the commodity boom ends. What are the lessons learned? Indonesia’s experience is similar to that of other countries rich in natural resources, including the crowding-out of non-commodity sectors, protectionist trade regimes, fiscal inefficiency, slow skill accumulation, rising inequality and environmental damages. In the aftermath of the global financial crisis of 2008–09, the early trade -policy response at the end of the commodity boom is inward-looking and protective of domestic markets and industries and aims to increase the added value of commodities by downstreaming. This trend is clearly reflected in the 2014 Trade Law, the 2014 Industry Law and the mineral export ban, which was introduced in 2009 through the 2009 Law on Mining of Coal and Minerals and took effect in 2014. Indonesia should learn from other countries in managing its resource revenues, such as through a commodity fund designed to fit its domestic specificity. Reindustrializing, increasing agricultural productivity beyond palm oil and tapping the country’s potential in the services sector including tourism and creative industries are also necessary to promote diversification in production and trade. Resource management policy should also include stronger environmental regulations.

  3. Managing commodity markets: the case of OPEC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salman, R.; Ferroukhi, R.

    1993-01-01

    Since primary commodity producers first took control of their natural resources, they have attempted to utilize production/price management with varying degrees of success. As a tool aimed at regulating, rather than controlling, commodity markets, this type of resource management is an essential means of achieving realistic economic returns, which, in the long run, serves the interests of the producer of the commodity in question, as well as its consumer. By regulating commodity markets in times of stable prices producing countries would benefit from a steady and constant level of export earnings, thus allowing them to achieve a sustainable level of economic development. As far as the oil market is concerned, stable prices, set in a range favourable to both producers and consumers, would give investors the confidence needed for long-term exploration. This is particularly important for a commodity such as oil, at a time when the lead time between exploration starting and actual production getting under way is increasing. Not only would producers benefit from stable export earnings, which are an essential requirement for the planning of their development process, but consuming countries would at the same time benefit in two ways: first, they would gain security of supply; and second, as fluctuations in their expenditure for this commodity are reduced, they would be a position to manage their economies more efficiently. (author)

  4. Influence of gender roles and rising food prices on poor, pregnant women’s eating and food provisioning practices in Dhaka, Bangladesh

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Background Maternal malnutrition in Bangladesh is a persistent health issue and is the product of a number of complex factors, including adherence to food 'taboos’ and a patriarchal gender order that limits women’s mobility and decision-making. The recent global food price crisis is also negatively impacting poor pregnant women’s access to food. It is believed that those who are most acutely affected by rising food prices are the urban poor. While there is an abundance of useful quantitative research centered on maternal nutrition and food insecurity measurements in Bangladesh, missing is an understanding of how food insecurity is experienced by people who are most vulnerable, the urban ultra-poor. In particular, little is known of the lived experience of food insecurity among pregnant women in this context. This research investigated these lived experiences by exploring food provisioning strategies of urban, ultra-poor, pregnant women. This knowledge is important as discussions surrounding the creation of new development goals are currently underway. Methods Using a focused-ethnographic approach, household food provisioning experiences were explored. Data from participant observation, a focus group discussion and semi-structured interviews were collected in an urban slum in Dhaka, Bangladesh. Interviews were undertaken with 28 participants including 12 pregnant women and new mothers, two husbands, nine non-pregnant women, and five health care workers. Results The key findings are: 1) women were aware of the importance of good nutrition and demonstrated accurate, biomedically-based knowledge of healthy eating practices during pregnancy; 2) the normative gender rules that have traditionally constrained women’s access to nutritional resources are relaxing in the urban setting; however 3) women are challenged in accessing adequate quality and quantities of food due to the increase in food prices at the market. Conclusions Rising food prices and resultant food

  5. Exploring economically and environmentally viable northeastern US dairy farm strategies for coping with rising corn grain prices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghebremichael, L T; Veith, T L; Cerosaletti, P E; Dewing, D E; Rotz, C A

    2009-08-01

    In 2008, corn grain prices rose $115/t of DM above the 2005 average. Such an increase creates tight marginal profits for small (profit losses by growing more corn silage and reducing corn grain purchases. This study applies the Integrated Farm Systems Model to 1 small and 1 medium-sized New York State dairy farm to predict 1) sediment and P loss impacts from expanding corn fields, 2) benefits of no-till or cover cropping on corn fields, and 3) alternatives to the economic challenge of the current farming system as the price ratio of milk to corn grain continues to decline. Based on the simulation results, expanding corn silage production by 3% of the cultivated farm area increased sediment and sediment-bound P losses by 41 and 18%, respectively. Implementing no-till controlled about 84% of the erosion and about 75% of the sediment-bound P that would have occurred from the conventionally tilled, expanded corn production scenario. Implementing a conventionally tilled cover crop with the conventionally tilled, expanded corn production scenario controlled both erosion and sediment-bound P, but to a lesser extent than no-till corn with no cover crop. However, annual farm net return using cover crops was slightly less than when using no-till. Increasing on-farm grass productivity while feeding cows a high-quality, high-forage diet and precise dietary P levels offered dual benefits: 1) improved farm profitability from reduced purchases of dietary protein and P supplements, and 2) decreased runoff P losses from reduced P-levels in applied manure. Moreover, alternatives such as growing additional small grains on marginal lands and increasing milk production levels demonstrated great potential in increasing farm profitability. Overall, it is crucial that conservation measures such as no-till and cover cropping be implemented on new or existing corn lands as these areas often pose the highest threat for P losses through runoff. Although alternatives that would likely provide

  6. A dataset on tail risk of commodities markets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powell, Robert J; Vo, Duc H; Pham, Thach N; Singh, Abhay K

    2017-12-01

    This article contains the datasets related to the research article "The long and short of commodity tails and their relationship to Asian equity markets"(Powell et al., 2017) [1]. The datasets contain the daily prices (and price movements) of 24 different commodities decomposed from the S&P GSCI index and the daily prices (and price movements) of three share market indices including World, Asia, and South East Asia for the period 2004-2015. Then, the dataset is divided into annual periods, showing the worst 5% of price movements for each year. The datasets are convenient to examine the tail risk of different commodities as measured by Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) as well as their changes over periods. The datasets can also be used to investigate the association between commodity markets and share markets.

  7. Food versus fuel: What do prices tell us?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Zibin; Lohr, Luanne; Escalante, Cesar; Wetzstein, Michael

    2010-01-01

    Sorting out the impacts of biofuels on global agricultural commodity prices is impossible without turning to data and distinguishing between the short-run versus the long-run impacts. Using time-series prices on fuels and agricultural commodities, the aim is to investigate the long-run cointegration of these prices simultaneously with their multivariate short-run interactions. Results indicate no direct long-run price relations between fuel and agricultural commodity prices, and limited if any direct short-run relationships. In terms of short-run price movements, sugar prices are influencing all the other agricultural commodity prices except rice. With sugar the number one world input for ethanol, results indicate increased ethanol production is potentially influencing short-run agricultural commodity prices. Overall, results support the effect of agricultural commodity prices as market signals which restore commodity markets to their equilibria after a demand or supply event (shock).

  8. Factor Structure in Commodity Futures Return and Volatility

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christoffersen, Peter; Lunde, Asger; Olesen, Kasper Vinther

    Using data on more than 750 million futures trades during 2004-2013, we analyze eight stylized facts of commodity price and volatility dynamics in the post financialization period. We pay particular attention to the factor structure in returns and volatility and to commodity market integration...... with the equity market. We find evidence of a factor structure in daily commodity futures returns. However, the factor structure in daily commodity futures volatility is even stronger than in returns. When computing model-free realized commodity betas with the stock market we find that they were high during 2008......-2010 but have since returned to the pre-crisis level close to zero. The common factor in commodity volatility is nevertheless clearly related to stock market volatility. We conclude that, while commodity markets appear to again be segmented from the equity market when only returns are considered, commodity...

  9. COMMODITY MARKET MATH MODELS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boris V. Mednikov

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The article describes enterprise mathmodels, its interactions with environment in commodity market and quantitativeconditions for its success and the crisis in such kind of interaction. Showed: the number of commodity market successfulparticipants should be certain, regardless of market size; any size commodity market, including monopolistic, is assuccessful as producers’ average activity dynamics is balanced with consumers’average activity dynamics.

  10. Is the Rise in the Prevalence of Renal Replacement Therapy at Older Ages the Price for Living Longer?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frederik Peters

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available BackgroundRenal replacement therapy (RRT is one of the most expensive in renal medicine. Cross-sectional studies suggest that life expectancy increases in the general population are associated with a higher burden of RRT. This study tests this hypothesis in a prospective setting among people aged 75+ living in Western Europe.MethodsWe gathered sex-specific data for 11 Western European countries in 2005–2014. RRT prevalence on country level was extracted from the ERA-EDTA registry, while data on population size and life expectancy for the 75+ age group came from the Eurostat database. GDP per capita was extracted from the OECD database. To measure the association between RRT prevalence and life expectancy, we performed Poisson regression models separately for each country and for all countries combined. To adjust for confounding, GDP per capita as well as time and country-fixed effects were included.ResultsOur analysis revealed that living longer coincides with rising RRT prevalence at ages 75+ in Western Europe between 2005 and 2014. On average, a 1-year increase in life expectancy was associated with a roughly 20% increase in RRT prevalence [(95% CI 21–23% in men and 19–22% in women]. However, after adjustments for confounding were made, the association became insignificant among women and became weaker among men, falling to a level of 11% [(95% CI 6–17%].ConclusionLiving longer was not necessarily associated with a higher burden of RRT in Western European countries.

  11. Multiple commodities in statistical microeconomics: Model and market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baaquie, Belal E.; Yu, Miao; Du, Xin

    2016-11-01

    A statistical generalization of microeconomics has been made in Baaquie (2013). In Baaquie et al. (2015), the market behavior of single commodities was analyzed and it was shown that market data provides strong support for the statistical microeconomic description of commodity prices. The case of multiple commodities is studied and a parsimonious generalization of the single commodity model is made for the multiple commodities case. Market data shows that the generalization can accurately model the simultaneous correlation functions of up to four commodities. To accurately model five or more commodities, further terms have to be included in the model. This study shows that the statistical microeconomics approach is a comprehensive and complete formulation of microeconomics, and which is independent to the mainstream formulation of microeconomics.

  12. Supplement: Commodity Index Report

    Data.gov (United States)

    Commodity Futures Trading Commission — Shows index traders in selected agricultural markets. These traders are drawn from the noncommercial and commercial categories. The noncommercial category includes...

  13. COMMODITY MARKET REGULATION: EXPORTING COUNTRIES VERSUS IMPORTING COUNTRIES

    OpenAIRE

    Souza, Leonardo Silveira

    2012-01-01

    The high in commodity prices in the international market in the last decade, tensions escalated between exporting and importing commodities countries, the extent of having their demands and pressures discussed in the main international organizations, especially in the G20. As altas nas cotações das commodities no mercado internacional na última década acirraram as tensões entre países exportadores e importadores de commodities, a ponto de terem suas reivindicações e pressões debatidas no...

  14. Explaining crude oil prices using fundamental measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coleman, Les

    2012-01-01

    Oil is the world's most important commodity, and improving the understanding of drivers of its price is a longstanding research objective. This article analyses real oil prices during 1984–2007 using a monthly dataset of fundamental and market parameters that cover financial markets, global economic growth, demand and supply of oil, and geopolitical measures. The innovation is to incorporate proxies for speculative and terrorist activity and dummies for major industry events, and quantify price impacts of each. New findings are positive links between oil prices and speculative activity, bond yields, an interaction term incorporating OPEC market share and OECD import dependence, and the number of US troops and frequency of terrorist attacks in the Middle East. Shocks also prove significant with a $6–18 per barrel impact on price for several months. - Highlights: ► Article introduces new variables to the study of oil prices. ► New variables are terrorist incidents and military activity, and oil futures market size. ► Shocks prove important affecting prices by $6–18 per barrel for several months. ► OPEC market influence rises with OECD import dependence.

  15. The Influence of Agricultural Commodity on F&B Company’s Performance in Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rofikoh Rokhim

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available This research examines the influence of agricultural commodity price movements on stock price and gross profit of food and beverage companies in Indonesia, as well as the effect of volatility prices of agricultural commodities. Using time series data of food and beverages (F&B companies that are listed at the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX, this research calculating the event studies to find the abnormal returns. The results showed that the movement of agricultural commodity prices has a positive effect on stock prices of F&B companies, with the dominant influence of commodity prices of corn and sugar. Agricultural commodity prices also affect positively on gross profit F&B companies, with the dominant influence of commodity prices of corn and palm oil. The increase in prices of agricultural commodities simultaneously affect the value of a positive cumulative abnormal return for stocks of F&B companies. The results also showed that the decline of agricultural commodities simultaneously affect the value of negative cumulative abnormal return for stocks of F&B companies.

  16. Commodities and Stock Investment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This study is a multivariate analysis of commodities and stock investment in a newly established market scenario. Return distribution asymmetry is examined with higher order movements. Skewness in commodity future’s return is largely insignificant, whereas kurtosis is highly significant for both stock and commodity future contracts. Correlation analysis is done with Pearson’s and Kendall’s tau measures. Commodities provide significant diversification benefits when added in a portfolio of stocks. Compared with stocks, commodity future’s returns show stronger correlation with unexpected inflation. The volatility is measured through Glosten-Jagannathan-Runkle - Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GJR-GARCH model and reflects that commodities have inverted asymmetric behavior, that is, more impact from the upward shocks compared with downward. Stocks have asymmetric volatility, that is, more impact from negative shocks compared with positive. Gold has highest inverted asymmetric volatility. Tail dependence, measured through Student’s t copula, shows no combined downside movement. In conclusion, commodity investments provide diversification and inflation protection.

  17. 7 CFR Exhibit B to Subpart A of... - Memorandum of Understanding and Blanket Commodity Lien Waiver

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... commodity with respect to which the loan or purchase is made. The word “subordinated” means that, in the... makes loans to farmers on the security of agricultural commodities that are eligible for price support under loan and purchase programs conducted by the Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC). FmHA or its...

  18. Mineral commodity summaries 2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    ,

    2015-01-01

    Each chapter of the 2015 edition of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Mineral Commodity Summaries (MCS) includes information on events, trends, and issues for each mineral commodity as well as discussions and tabular presentations on domestic industry structure, Government programs, tariffs, 5-year salient statistics, and world production and resources. The MCS is the earliest comprehensive source of 2014 mineral production data for the world. More than 90 individual minerals and materials are covered by two-page synopses.

  19. Grain price spikes and beggar-thy-neighbor policy responses

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Hans Grinsted; Anderson, Kym

    When prices spike in international grain markets, national governments often reduce the extent to which that spike affects their domestic food markets. Those actions exacerbate the price spike and international welfare transfer associated with that terms of trade change. Several recent analyses...... have assessed the extent to which those policies contributed to the 2006-08 international price rise, but only by focusing on one commodity or using a back-of-the envelope (BOTE) method. This paper provides a more-comprehensive analysis using a global economy-wide model that is able to take account...... of the interactions between markets for farm products that are closely related in production and/or consumption, and able to estimate the impacts of those insulating policies on grain prices and on the grain trade and economic welfare of the world’s various countries. Our results support the conclusion from earlier...

  20. Optimal Commodity Taxation and Income Distribution

    OpenAIRE

    Benassi, Corrado; Randon, Emanuela

    2015-01-01

    We consider the interplay between income distribution and optimal commodity taxation, linking equity issues to optimal taxes through the effect of income distribution on market demand and its price elasticity. We find conditions to conciliate the equity and efficiency tradeoff and to assess the impact of inequality changes on the optimal taxation of necessity and luxury goods. We show that the regressivity or progressivity of the tax system is determined by the distribution of luxuries and ne...

  1. Comparison of the effects of conditional food and cash transfers of the Ethiopian Productive Safety Net Program on household food security and dietary diversity in the face of rising food prices: ways forward for a more nutrition-sensitive program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baye, Kaleab; Retta, Negussie; Abuye, Cherinet

    2014-09-01

    In light of the continuing rise in food prices during and after the 2008 world food crisis, whether food and cash transfers are equally effective in improving food security and diet quality is debatable. To compare the effects of conditional food and cash transfers of the Ethiopian Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP) on household food security and dietary diversity. Data on household dietary diversity, child anthropometry, food security, and preference of transfer modalities (food, cash, or mixed) were generated from a cross-sectional survey of 195 PSNP beneficiary households (67 receiving food and 128 receiving cash) in Hawella Tulla District, Sidama, southern Ethiopia. Most beneficiaries (96%) reported food shortages, and 47% reported food shortages that exceeded 3 months. Households receiving cash had better household dietary diversity scores (p = .02) and higher consumption of oils and fats (p = .003) and vitamin A-rich foods (p = .002). Compared with households receiving food, households receiving cash were more affected by increases in food prices that forced them to reduce their number of daily meals (p diversity than households receiving food, a result suggesting that cash transfers may be more effective. However, the continuing rise infood prices may offset these benefits unless cash transfers are index-linked to food price fluctuations.

  2. UNCTAD commodity yearbook 1990

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1990-01-01

    The Commodity Yearbook is intended to provide disaggregated data at the world, regional and country levels for trade and consumption in selected agricultural primary commodities and minerals, ores and metals. Production series have been included for the latter group of commodities, since comprehensive diaggregated data are unavailable elsewhere. Basic tables have been designed, from both the commodity and the country point of view, to serve as background material to international commodity discussions and negotiations in the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. The classification of countries and territories by region has been adopted for statistical convenience only, and follows that employed by the Statistical Office of the United Nations. Four main regions are defined: Developed market economy countries, Countries of Eastern Europe, Socialist countries of Asia and Developing countries and territories. For developed and developing countries and territories, the main regions have been further subdivided (e.g., EEC, EFTA, Africa, etc.) to provide additional information. The exact composition of each region is shown in section V of the general notes

  3. Recent Global Food Price Shocks: Causes, Consequences and Lessons for African Governments and Donors-super- †

    OpenAIRE

    Philip Abbott; Adeline Borot de Battisti

    2011-01-01

    Dramatic increases in international agricultural commodity prices began in 2006 and peaked in July 2008. An equally remarkable and rapid decline of those prices then ensued, accompanied by extreme volatility in those prices. The trend in food prices lagged the rapid increases in other commodity prices, including oil and metals, but accompanied those other prices in the downward part of the cycle. Not all agricultural commodities increased to the same extent—grains and oilseed prices increased...

  4. Natural gas pricing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Freedenthal, C.

    1993-01-01

    Natural gas pricing is the heart and soul of the gas business. Price specifically affects every phase of the industry. Too low a price will result in short supplies as seen in the mid-1970s when natural gas was scarce and in tight supply. To fully understand the pricing of this energy commodity, it is important to understand the total energy picture. In addition, the effect and impact of world and US economies, and economics in general are crucial to understanding natural gas pricing. The purpose of this presentation will be to show the parameters going into US natural gas pricing including the influence of the many outside industry factors like crude oil and coal pricing, market drivers pushing the gas industry, supply/demand parameters, risk management for buyers and sellers, and other elements involved in pricing analysis

  5. Supply Chain Shipment Pricing Data

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Agency for International Development — This data set provides supply chain health commodity shipment and pricing data. Specifically, the data set identifies Antiretroviral (ARV) and HIV lab shipments to...

  6. Poverty, Policy and Price Transmission

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Elleby, Christian

    This thesis consists of four self-contained chapters in which different aspects of the relationship between international commodity markets and domestic food markets are explored. What motivates the analysis is the recent surge in international commodity prices and the controversy over the poverty...

  7. Oil price, capital mobility and oil importers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gonzalez-Romero, A.

    1992-01-01

    A three-region, three-commodity general equilibrium model is constructed to explore the impact of OPEC's pricing policies on major macro variables of importer economies. The aim of this paper is to explore general macro characteristics of the trading economies to aid understanding of the world economy response after OPEC I and OPEC II in terms of the evolution of North - South terms of trade, rates of profit and output levels. We support the view of a world economy in a three regions setting, North - South - OPEC. The analysis increases our understanding of why regions respond differently to the same external shock and how from different regimes of capital mobility we should derive alternative policy implications. With the current rise in oil prices, the topic promises to be relevant for some time, although the direction of the shocks has been reserved. (Author)

  8. 17 CFR 242.201 - Price test.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 3 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Price test. 242.201 Section...-Regulation of Short Sales § 242.201 Price test. Link to an amendment published at 75 FR 11323, Mar. 10, 2010. (a) No short sale price test, including any short sale price test of any self-regulatory organization...

  9. Food Prices Transmission In Rwanda: Econometric Analysis

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ahavugimana

    (2010) found that if markets are efficient and policies are not an obstacle to their operation, changes in the world price of any given commodity should be similarly reflected in changes in domestic prices – phenomenon known as 'price transmission'. In many poor countries, the recent increases in prices of staple foods have ...

  10. DESIGNING GREEN SUPPORT: INCENTIVE COMPATIBILITY AND THE COMMODITY PROGRAMS

    OpenAIRE

    Runge, C. Ford

    1994-01-01

    The purpose of this brief analysis is to consider the potential points of contact between a program of "green support" and the existing commodity programs in U.S. agriculture. These points of contact may take the form of conflict, complementarity, or neutrality. We shall assume initially that green support is "added" to the programs as they exist in 1994. Five main commodity program areas are considered: A. Deficiency payments resulting from the loan rate/target price structure B. Acreage red...

  11. The Role of Incompleteness in Commodity Futures Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Takashi eKanamura

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a convenience yield-based pricing for commodity futures, which embeds incompleteness of commodity futures markets in convenience yields. By using the pricing method, we conduct empirical analyses of the prices of WTI crude oil, heating oil, and natural gas futures traded on the NYMEX in order to assess the incompleteness of energy futures markets. We show that the fluctuation from the incompleteness is partly driven by the fluctuation from convenience yields. In addition, it is shown that the incompleteness of natural gas futures market is more highlighted than the incompleteness of WTI crude oil and heating oil futures markets. We apply the implied market price of risk from the NYMEX data to pricing an Asian call option written on WTI crude oil futures. Finally, we try to apply the market incompleteness analysis to the post-crisis periods after 2009.

  12. Commodity risk management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hilary Till

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available This article discusses the practical issues involved in applying a disciplined risk management methodology to commodity futures trading. Accordingly, the paper shows how to apply methodologies derived from both conventional asset management and hedge fund management to futures trading. The article also discusses some of the risk management issues that are unique to leveraged futures trading.

  13. Mineral Commodity Summaries 2009

    Science.gov (United States)

    ,

    2009-01-01

    Each chapter of the 2009 edition of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Mineral Commodity Summaries (MCS) includes information on events, trends, and issues for each mineral commodity as well as discussions and tabular presentations on domestic industry structure, Government programs, tariffs, 5-year salient statistics, and world production and resources. The MCS is the earliest comprehensive source of 2008 mineral production data for the world. More than 90 individual minerals and materials are covered by two-page synopses. For mineral commodities for which there is a Government stockpile, detailed information concerning the stockpile status is included in the two-page synopsis. Because specific information concerning committed inventory was no longer available from the Defense Logistics Agency, National Defense Stockpile Center, that information, which was included in earlier Mineral Commodity Summaries publications, has been deleted from Mineral Commodity Summaries 2009. National reserves and reserve base information for most mineral commodities found in this report, including those for the United States, are derived from a variety of sources. The ideal source of such information would be comprehensive evaluations that apply the same criteria to deposits in different geographic areas and report the results by country. In the absence of such evaluations, national reserves and reserve base estimates compiled by countries for selected mineral commodities are a primary source of national reserves and reserve base information. Lacking national assessment information by governments, sources such as academic articles, company reports, common business practice, presentations by company representatives, and trade journal articles, or a combination of these, serve as the basis for national reserves and reserve base information reported in the mineral commodity sections of this publication. A national estimate may be assembled from the following: historically reported

  14. Commodity Market Inefficiencies and Inflationary Pressures - India’s Economic Policy Dilemma

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pankaj Kumar GUPTA

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available With the current pace of growth, India would emerge as a major player in the international market in terms of commodity consumption, production and trade. Going by trade volume and also the possibly as an identifiable influence on the price making process on the essential commodities, the futures and spot markets have shown major variations. Increased volatility in asset prices has been a major reason behind the integration of domestic financial markets with the international financial sector accentuating the demand for the trading in the derivative market. Though organized commodity trading has been in from the nineteenth century in India, the commodity derivative markets in the new form with nationwide electronic trading and access have opened the gates for speculators, hedgers and other market participants to capitalize on the development. The robust growth of the commodity markets can be observed in terms of number of commodities trade volumes and growing number of both the market participants and the commodity exchanges. Liquidity booms reflected by loose monetary policy are responsible for major surge in commodity prices globally in addition to direct tangible impacts of oil prices especially in developing countries with heavy oil imports like India. Futures markets are created to fulfill genuine desires economic functions of hedging and price discovery. But, enormous futures trading observed on the commodity exchanges have raised a host of issues like inflation guided by the fuelling principle implying the direct relationship between volatility and inflation. Huge price volatility in futures segment on the commodity exchanges has therefore raised concerns relating to the market efficiencies, infrastructure and knowledge and also their consequential impact on cash markets. The demand and supply side of the commodity price mechanism is traditionally governed by numerous factors including the climatic conditions, availability of critical

  15. Migration of Price Discovery With Constrained Futures Markets

    OpenAIRE

    Anthony D. Hall; Paul Kofman; Steve Manaster

    2001-01-01

    This paper investigates the information content of futures option prices when the futures price is regulated while the futures option price itself is not. The New York Board of Trade provides the empirical setting for this type of dichotomy in regulation. Most commodity derivatives markets regulate prices of all derivatives on a particular commodity simultaneously. NYBOT has taken an almost unique position by imposing daily price limits on their futures contracts while leaving the options pri...

  16. PRICE AND PRICING STRATEGIES

    OpenAIRE

    SUCIU Titus

    2013-01-01

    In individual companies, price is one significant factor in achieving marketing success. In many purchase situations, price can be of great importance to customers. Marketers must establish pricing strategies that are compatible with the rest of the marketing mix. Management should decide whether to charge the same price to all similar buyers of identical quantities of a product (a one-price strategy) or to set different prices (a flexible price strategy). Many organizations, especially retai...

  17. Mineral commodity summaries 2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    ,

    2013-01-01

    Each chapter of the 2013 edition of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Mineral Commodity Summaries (MCS) includes information on events, trends, and issues for each mineral commodity as well as discussions and tabular presentations on domestic industry structure, Government programs, tariffs, 5-year salient statistics, and world production and resources. The MCS is the earliest comprehensive source of 2012 mineral production data for the world. More than 90 individual minerals and materials are covered by two-page synopses. For mineral commodities for which there is a Government stockpile, detailed information concerning the stockpile status is included in the two-page synopsis. Abbreviations and units of measure, and definitions of selected terms used in the report, are in Appendix A and Appendix B, respectively. “Appendix C—Reserves and Resources” includes “Part A—Resource/Reserve Classification for Minerals” and “Part B—Sources of Reserves Data.” A directory of USGS minerals information country specialists and their responsibilities is Appendix D. The USGS continually strives to improve the value of its publications to users. Constructive comments and suggestions by readers of the MCS 2013 are welcomed.

  18. Mineral commodity summaries 2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    ,

    2014-01-01

    Each chapter of the 2014 edition of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Mineral Commodity Summaries (MCS) includes information on events, trends, and issues for each mineral commodity as well as discussions and tabular presentations on domestic industry structure, Government programs, tariffs, 5-year salient statistics, and world production and resources. The MCS is the earliest comprehensive source of 2013 mineral production data for the world. More than 90 individual minerals and materials are covered by two-page synopses. For mineral commodities for which there is a Government stockpile, detailed information concerning the stockpile status is included in the two-page synopsis. Abbreviations and units of measure, and definitions of selected terms used in the report, are in Appendix A and Appendix B, respectively. “Appendix C—Reserves and Resources” includes “Part A—Resource/Reserve Classification for Minerals” and “Part B—Sources of Reserves Data.” A directory of USGS minerals information country specialists and their responsibilities is Appendix D. The USGS continually strives to improve the value of its publications to users. Constructive comments and suggestions by readers of the MCS 2014 are welcomed.

  19. Energy and commodities market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bokermann, Marcus; Prass, Markus

    2015-01-01

    The electricity markets in Central and Western Europe and in the nordic countries have further shown weak in 2014 with falling prices. The key factors were the declining quotations for coal and natural gas and the warm weather. Another driver was the growth of renewable energy. In the power markets conditions remained mostly an oversupply. The upward trending prices on the CO 2 emissions market were not formative enough to turn the market sentiment. They only caused for volatility during the year. [de

  20. Economical efficiency of bio energy as the level of prices in the agricultural sector rises; Wirtschaftlichkeit der Bioenergie bei steigendem Agrarpreisniveau

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heilmann, Hubert [Landesforschungsanstalt fuer Landwirtschaft und Fischerei Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Guelzow (Germany). Inst. fuer Pflanzenproduktion und Betriebswirtschaft

    2013-10-01

    The food versus fuel debate is still of high social relevance. Changes to the framework conditions can have serious consequences for the profitability and the raw material supply of bioenergy plants. With the German Renewable Energy Act (EEG) economic incentives were created in the past to expand the growing of renewable raw materials on arable land for the production of biogas as well as for combined heat and power generation. In the meantime, agricultural prices have developed very dynamically; there can currently hardly be any talk of excessive promotion by the EEG. Taking into account the opportunity cost of agricultural/and use, from the perspective of the grower raw material prices which call into question the profitable supply of biogas plants are sometimes necessary - even for maize, the most important and efficient field fodder. The expiration of long-term supply agreements can lead to supply shortages, especially for biogas plants that do not belong to farms. (orig.)

  1. Prices and Price Setting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R.P. Faber (Riemer)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractThis thesis studies price data and tries to unravel the underlying economic processes of why firms have chosen these prices. It focuses on three aspects of price setting. First, it studies whether the existence of a suggested price has a coordinating effect on the prices of firms.

  2. Water : a commodity or resource?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pomeroy, G.

    2003-01-01

    Over the past several years, natural gas demand has increased significantly, as it is seen as an environmentally friendly, convenient and cost effective fuel. As a result, Alberta should experience the development of a sustainable resource in the form of natural gas from coal, provided adequate management of associated water is in place. The environmental impact and volume of water produced with natural gas from coal can be significant. Water is scarce and demand is growing. Gas producers are faced with the challenge of high water production and disposal costs, and often choose the deep disposal option as the most economical solution. However, environmentalists and agriculture groups who view water as a valuable resource, warrant the costs associated with the treatment of produced water. The author proposed a conceptual solution to this dilemma concerning produced water. It was suggested that producers of water should be connected with consumers, while allowing free market supply and demand dynamics to price out the inefficient use of the resource. The author also discussed the related regulatory, environmental, technological, economic, and commercial issues. It was concluded that water is both a resource and a commodity. Alberta should implement measures to promote water conservation, pollute less, and manage supply and demand. figs

  3. A Study on Market Efficiency of Selected Commodity Derivatives Traded on NCDEX During 2011

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sajipriya, N.

    2012-10-01

    The study aims at testing the weak form of Efficient Market Hypothesis in the context of an emerging commodity market - National Commodity Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX), which is considered as the prime commodity derivatives market in India. The study considered daily spot and futures prices of five selected commodities traded on NCDEX over 12 month period (the futures contracts originating and expiring during the period January 2011 to December 2011) The five commodities chosen are Pepper, Crude palm Oil, steel silver and Chana as they account for almost two-thirds of the value of agricultural commodity derivatives traded on NCDEX. The results of Run test indicate that both spot and futures prices are weak form efficient

  4. Structural Prospects and Challenges for Bio Commodity Processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Narodoslawsky

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The current discussion about dwindling reserves of crude oil, rising fuel prices, global warming and supply disruption of natural gas has renewed interest in the provision of bioenergy and bio-based commodity products. There is a growing consensus that the 21st century will see a profound change in the resource base for industry and society, with less emphasis on fossil coal, oil and gas and more emphasis on renewable resources. This new resource base may take the form either of direct solar energy like photovoltaics and thermal solar energy or indirect utilisation of solar energy via biomass. Such a change in the raw material base, however, entails a profound revolution in the structure of processes, technologies employed and the economical framework of industry and society. Renewable resources constitute 'limited infinity': although they may be provided for infinite time, their yield is limited. This paper explores the strategic challenges for society in general and process industry in particular, and indicates some methodological approaches to meet these challenges, exemplified in case studies about decentralised bioethanol production and decentralised multifunctional production centres. The paper shows that utilising renewable resources enlarges the process concept by including resource provision and logistics into the process design. It also highlights a new balance between economy and ecology of scale when resource provision and logistics are taken into account. Ecological process evaluation as analytical methods and process synthesis as design methods will gain increasing importance for process technology as the share of renewable resources is increased.

  5. The Financial Industry's Challenge of Developing Commodity Derivatives

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pennings, J.M.E.; Meulenberg, M.T.G.

    1999-01-01

    With a constant new stream of financial services coming to the market, each often more exotic and complicated than the last, the financial services industry, which includes commodity derivatives exchanges, brokerage houses and banks providing price risk reduction services (the so-called hedging

  6. Commodity Tracker: Mobile Application for Food Security Monitoring in Haiti

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiu, M. T.; Huang, X.; Baird, J.; Gourley, J. R.; Morelli, R.; de Lanerolle, T. R.; Haiti Food Security Monitoring Mobile App Team

    2011-12-01

    Megan Chiu, Jason Baird, Xu Huang, Trishan de Lanerolle, Ralph Morelli, Jonathan Gourley Trinity College, Computer Science Department and Environmental Science Program, 300 Summit Street, Hartford, CT 06106 megan.chiu@trincoll.edu, Jason.baird@trincoll.edu, xu.huang@trincoll.edu, trishan.delanerolle@trincoll.edu, ralph.morelli@trincoll.edu, jonathan.gourley@trincoll.edu Price data for Haiti commodities such as rice and potatoes have been traditionally recorded by hand on paper forms for many years. The information is then entered onto computer manually, thus making the process a long and arduous one. With the development of the Haiti Commodity Tracker mobile app, we are able to make this commodity price data recording process more efficient. Officials may use this information for making inferences about the difference in commodity prices and for food distribution during critical time after natural disasters. This information can also be utilized by governments and aid agencies on their food assistance programs. Agronomists record the item prices from several sample sites in a marketplace and compare those results from other markets across the region. Due to limited connectivity in rural areas, data is first saved to the phone's database and then retransmitted to a central server via SMS messaging. The mobile app is currently being field tested by an international NGO providing agricultural aid and support in rural Haiti.

  7. New Commodity Services System increases gas bill for clients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koevoet, H.

    2003-01-01

    The Dutch company Gasunie Trade and Supply will replace the Commodity Services System (CDS, abbreviated in Dutch) January 1, 2004. This will result in a higher gas bill for almost all their clients that are expected to use more than 1 million m 3 natural gas per year. An overview is given of the principles of the old and the new pricing system [nl

  8. How Macroecomic Factors Influence the Commodity Market in the Financialization Period: The Case of S & P GSCI Commodity Index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kamil Smolík

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In connection to the process of financialization of commodity markets which is caused by the sharp increase of money flowing into the commodity markets, the question of which factors affect commodity and commodity indices prices is discussed. In this article, the importance of chosen macroeconomic determinants to the price variability of one of the most important commodity indexes S & P GSCI by using the Boosted Trees method is quantified. The results obtained in the research show that changes in the monthly values of macroeconomic determinants reflect and can, according to the model used, explain the volatility of the monthly average index S & P GSCI Total Return to more than 75%. The most important macroeconomic determinants proved to be Nominal Effective Exchange Rate of USD or US – Short-term interest rates.

  9. Demand Uncertainty and Price Stabilization

    OpenAIRE

    E. Kwan Choi; Stanley R. Johnson

    1987-01-01

    Price stabilization is an important policy goal of government intervention in competitive markets. These policies are primarily directed at raising producer income and stabilizing market prices at levels acceptable to consumers and producers (Fox 1956, Turnovsky 1978, Newbery and Stiglitz 1979). Many of the stabilization policy results have been developed from the study of agricultural commodity markets. In these markets, prices tend to be highly variable due to uncertain and inelastic supply...

  10. Trends and volatility in sub Saharan Africa’s key primary commodity exports

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew Ocran

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Using a GARCH model the paper sought to test the hypothesis that price volatility of key Sub Saharan Africa primary commodity exports, have not changed over the past four decades. Whilst crude oil, aluminium, cocoa and six others have not experienced significant change in price volatility over the period, nine other major commodities recorded changes. Efforts need to be made to extensively diversify the portfolio of agricultural commodity exports by including new products of which price volatilities in the past decades have been reduced. This is crucial for countries that depend on up to three primary commodities for the bulk of their foreign exchange earnings. Other measures such as value addition can also help in reducing impacts of unfavourable price movements.

  11. 7 CFR 1599.11 - Use of commodities and sale proceeds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE McGOVERN-DOLE INTERNATIONAL FOOD FOR EDUCATION AND CHILD NUTRITION... sell the donated commodities at a reasonable market price in the economy where the sale occurs. The...

  12. Inventories and upstream gasoline price dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuper, Gerard H.

    This paper sheds new light on the asymmetric dynamics in upstream U.S. gasoline prices. The model is based on Pindyck's inventory model of commodity price dynamics. We show that asymmetry in gasoline price dynamics is caused by changes in the net marginal convenience yield: higher costs of marketing

  13. AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF VARIETY PRICE PREMIUM ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Location price difference was inversely related to distance from the central commodity market, and the seasonal price difference was attributed to storage technique. These show imperfect competitive market behaviour. Peu/drum with characteristics of brown colour, rough skin and large grain size had a price premium than ...

  14. Price, technology, and ore reserves, ch. 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McAllister, A.L.

    1976-01-01

    Factors determining ore reserves in view of future uses are investigated: existing mining technologies, new techniques, price-technology relationship, effects of the use of different energy sources, exploration techniques, and price change are discussed. The effect of price and technology on reserves of specific commodities is dealth with. A section is also devoted to uranium

  15. Value chain management for commodities: a case study from the chemical industry

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kannegiesser, M.; Günther, H.O.; Beek, van P.; Grunow, M.; Habla, C.

    2009-01-01

    We present a planning model for chemical commodities related to an industry case. Commodities are standard chemicals characterized by sales and supply volatility in volume and value. Increasing and volatile prices of crude oil-dependent raw materials require coordination of sales and supply

  16. Commodities, energy and environmental finance

    CERN Document Server

    Ludkovski, Michael; Sircar, Ronnie

    2015-01-01

    This volume is a collection of chapters covering the latest developments in applications of financial mathematics and statistics to topics in energy, commodity financial markets and environmental economics. The research presented is based on the presentations and discussions that took place during the Fields Institute Focus Program on Commodities, Energy and Environmental Finance in August 2013. The authors include applied mathematicians, economists and industry practitioners, providing for a multi-disciplinary spectrum of perspectives on the subject. The volume consists of four sections: Electricity Markets; Real Options; Trading in Commodity Markets; and Oligopolistic Models for Energy Production. Taken together, the chapters give a comprehensive summary of the current state of the art in quantitative analysis of commodities and energy finance. The topics covered include structural models of electricity markets, financialization of commodities, valuation of commodity real options, game-theory analysis of ...

  17. Reconciling biofuels, sustainability and commodities demand. Pitfalls and policy options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uslu, A.; Bole, T.; Londo, M.; Pelkmans, L.; Berndes, G.; Prieler, S.; Fischer, G.; Cueste Cabal, H.

    2010-06-01

    Increasing fossil fuel prices, energy security considerations and environmental concerns, particularly concerning climate change, have motivated countries to explore alternative energy sources including biofuels. Global demand for biofuels has been rising rapidly due to biofuel support policies established in many countries. However, proposed strong links between biofuels demand and recent years' high food commodity prices, and notions that increasing biofuels production might bring about serious negative environmental impacts, in particularly associated with the land use change to biofuel crops, have shifted public enthusiasm about biofuels. In this context, the ELOBIO project aims at shedding further light to these aspects of biofuel expansion by collecting and reviewing the available data, and also developing strategies to decrease negative effects of biofuels while enabling their positive contribution to climate change, security of supply and rural development. ELOBIO considers aspects associated with both 1st and 2nd generation biofuels, hence analyses effects on both agricultural commodity markets and lignocellulosic markets. This project, funded by the Intelligent Energy Europe programme, consists of a review of current experiences with biofuels and other renewable energy policies and their impacts on other markets, iterative stakeholder-supported development of low-disturbing biofuels policies, model supported assessment of these policies' impacts on food, feed and lignocellulosic markets, and finally an assessment of the effects of selected optimal policies on biofuels costs and potentials. Results of the ELOBIO study show that rapid biofuel deployment without careful monitoring of consequences and implementation of mitigating measures risks leading to negative consequences. Implementing ambitious global biofuel targets for 2020, based on current 1st generation technologies, can push international agricultural commodity prices upwards and increase crop

  18. Contribution of price/expenditure factors of residential energy consumption in China from 1993 to 2011: A decomposition analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, Zengming; Zhao, Tao

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Analysis about energy prices and the residential expenditure on energy in China. • Though the prices of energy declined, the price effect was negative. • The effect of price was the strongest restraining contribution. • Discussion on the proportion of energy expenditure in residential incomes. - Abstract: Since the establishment of the market economy in 1993, the residential consumption of commodities, including energy, has been highly influenced by prices in China. However, the contribution of the factors related to prices in residential energy consumption is relatively unexplored. This paper extends the KAYA identity with price and expenditure factors and then applies the LMDI method to a decomposition of residential energy consumption in China from 1993 to 2011. Our results show the following: (1) Though the prices of a majority of residential energy sources in China declined, the effect of energy prices restrained residential energy consumption because the expenditure structure changed during the period. (2) During the research period, the urban energy expenditure proportion experienced two progresses of rising and falling, and the rural proportion, which was stable before 2002, sharply increased. (3) The energy consumption intensity effect, which is the negative of the average energy price effect, contributed to most of the decrease in energy consumption, whereas residential income played a key role in the growth of consumption. According to the conclusions, we suggest further marketization and deregulation of energy prices, the promotion of advanced energy types and guidance for better energy consumption patterns

  19. South Africa’s rising logistics costs: An uncertain future

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan H. Havenga

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available A country’s competitiveness can be severely hampered by an uncompetitive freight logistics system. During the first decade of the 21st century, two in-depth models were developed for South Africa which provide a framework for measuring and improving the country’s freight logistics system – the cost of logistics survey and the freight demand model. These models also allow for the development of scenarios for key identified risks. The objectives of this study were to provide an overview of South Africa’s surface freight transport industry,identify key risks to national competitiveness and suggest ways in which these risks could be mitigated. Freight flows were modelled by disaggregating the national input–output model into 372 origin–destination pairs and 71 commodity groups, followed by distance decay gravity-modelling. Logistics costs were calculated by relating commodity-level freight flows to the costs of fulfilling associated logistical functions. South Africa’s economy is highly transport intensive. Excessive dependence on road freight transport exacerbates this situation. Furthermore, the road freight transport’s key cost driver is fuel, driven in turn by the oil price. Scenario analysis indicated the risk posed by this rising and volatile input and should provide impetus for policy instruments to reduce transport intensity. As such, this study concluded that a reduction in freight transport intensity is required to reduce exposure to volatile international oil prices.

  20. Modelling electricity futures prices using seasonal path-dependent volatility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fanelli, Viviana; Maddalena, Lucia; Musti, Silvana

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • A no-arbitrage term structure model is applied to the electricity market. • Volatility parameters of the HJM model are estimated by using German data. • The model captures the seasonal price behaviour. • Electricity futures prices are forecasted. • Call options are evaluated according to different strike prices. - Abstract: The liberalization of electricity markets gave rise to new patterns of futures prices and the need of models that could efficiently describe price dynamics grew exponentially, in order to improve decision making for all of the agents involved in energy issues. Although there are papers focused on modelling electricity as a flow commodity by using Heath et al. (1992) approach in order to price futures contracts, the literature is scarce on attempts to consider a seasonal volatility as input to models. In this paper, we propose a futures price model that allows looking into observed stylized facts in the electricity market, in particular stochastic price variability, and periodic behavior. We consider a seasonal path-dependent volatility for futures returns that are modelled in Heath et al. (1992) framework and we obtain the dynamics of futures prices. We use these series to price the underlying asset of a call option in a risk management perspective. We test the model on the German electricity market, and we find that it is accurate in futures and option value estimates. In addition, the obtained results and the proposed methodology can be useful as a starting point for risk management or portfolio optimization under uncertainty in the current context of energy markets.

  1. Regime shift in fertilizer commodities indicates more turbulence ahead for food security.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James J Elser

    Full Text Available Recent human population increase has been enabled by a massive expansion of global agricultural production. A key component of this "Green Revolution" has been application of inorganic fertilizers to produce and maintain high crop yields. However, the long-term sustainability of these practices is unclear given the eutrophying effects of fertilizer runoff as well as the reliance of fertilizer production on finite non-renewable resources such as mined phosphate- and potassium-bearing rocks. Indeed, recent volatility in food and agricultural commodity prices, especially phosphate fertilizer, has raised concerns about emerging constraints on fertilizer production with consequences for its affordability in the developing world. We examined 30 years of monthly prices of fertilizer commodities (phosphate rock, urea, and potassium for comparison with three food commodities (maize, wheat, and rice and three non-agricultural commodities (gold, nickel, and petroleum. Here we show that all commodity prices, except gold, had significant change points between 2007-2009, but the fertilizer commodities, and especially phosphate rock, showed multiple symptoms of nonlinear critical transitions. In contrast to fertilizers and to rice, maize and wheat prices did not show significant signs of nonlinear dynamics. From these results we infer a recent emergence of a scarcity price in global fertilizer markets, a result signaling a new high price regime for these essential agricultural inputs. Such a regime will challenge on-going efforts to establish global food security but may also prompt fertilizer use practices and nutrient recovery strategies that reduce eutrophication.

  2. The changing dynamics between biofuels and commodity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bole, T.; Londo, H.M.

    2008-06-01

    The recent development of the biofuel industries coincides with significant increases in prices of basic commodities such as food and feed. Against popular perception, it appears that there is not a straightforward causal relationship between the two; there are a number of factors that determine the level and strength of the impact of the biofuels sector on other commodities. For the case of markets of agricultural raw material these factors include the amount of feedstock claimed by the biofuels industry, its relative purchasing power, the responsiveness of the agricultural sector to price incentives and availability of substitutes. For consumer food markets we must additionally consider the relative share of agricultural input costs in the retail food price and the demand elasticity. Based on the analysis of these factors and estimates of other studies that attempted to quantify the price impacts of biofuels on crop prices, we conclude that the impact of biofuels is relatively small, especially when compared with other causes that triggered the recent price increases. We end the paper with a recommendation for future efforts in curbing food price inflations while keeping ambitious biofuel targets and suggest a shift in focus of the debate around the social costs of biofuels

  3. Oil prices and the stock prices of alternative energy companies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Henriques, Irene; Sadorsky, Perry

    2008-01-01

    Energy security issues coupled with increased concern over the natural environment are driving factors behind oil price movements. While it is widely accepted that rising oil prices are good for the financial performance of alternative energy companies, there has been relatively little statistical work done to measure just how sensitive the financial performance of alternative energy companies are to changes in oil prices. In this paper, a four variable vector autoregression model is developed and estimated in order to investigate the empirical relationship between alternative energy stock prices, technology stock prices, oil prices, and interest rates. Our results show technology stock prices and oil prices each individually Granger cause the stock prices of alternative energy companies. Simulation results show that a shock to technology stock prices has a larger impact on alternative energy stock prices than does a shock to oil prices. These results should be of use to investors, managers and policy makers. (author)

  4. 1988 coal price negotiation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Senmura, Akira

    1988-12-01

    In the negotiation on raw coal price for 1988, which began at the end of 1987, Australia requested price rise of 4 - 5 dollars for the reason of rise of Australian dollars, conditions of mines, price drop in the past five years, and world supply/demand of coal. Japan insisted to maintain the price of preceding year. The talk ended in a dead lock which could last a long time. Negotiation on the Canadian coal price also encountered difficulties but an agreement was obtained in March as Japan accepted the increased price. After which, Japan and Australia agreed to raise the price by 2.90 dollars and an increase over last year. Producing countries also requested a wide price rise as 7.50 dollars for general coal, making in this area very difficult to progress. Finally, they agreed to raise the price by 6.30 dollars and the electric power utility in Japan responded by importing of U.S. coal, which has a lower heat output but is also cheaper. It depends on Australia for 70% of coal supply but started to diversify the source. 3 tabs.

  5. CAUSAL RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN GRAIN, MEAT PRICES AND EXCHANGE RATES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naveen Musunuru

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Understanding agricultural commodity price relationships are important as they help producers improve their awareness regarding production costs and ultimately aid in income determination. The present paper empirically examines the dynamic interrelationships among grain, meat prices and the U.S. dollar exchange rate. Johansen cointegration tests reveal no cointegrating relationships among the study variables. Majority of the commodities studied in the paper exhibited unidirectional causality except for corn and lean hogs. The vector autoregression (VAR model results indicate that the grain and meat prices are influenced by their own past prices. The role of exchange rates is found to be limited in linking the agricultural commodities.

  6. Dynamics of a durable commodity market involving trade at disequilibrium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panchuk, A.; Puu, T.

    2018-05-01

    The present work considers a simple model of a durable commodity market involving two agents who trade stocks of two different types. Stock commodities, in contrast to flow commodities, remain on the market from period to period and, consequently, there is neither unique demand function nor unique supply function exists. We also set up exact conditions for trade at disequilibrium, the issue being usually neglected, though a fact of reality. The induced iterative system has infinite number of fixed points and path dependent dynamics. We show that a typical orbit is either attracted to one of the fixed points or eventually sticks at a no-trade point. For the latter the stock distribution always remains the same while the price displays periodic or chaotic oscillations.

  7. Quarterly Web Interfaced Commodity Reporting

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Agency for International Development — QWICR is a secure, online Title II commodity reporting system accessible to USAID Missions, PVO Cooperating Sponsors and Food for Peace Officers. QWICR provides PVO...

  8. 77 FR 25319 - Commodity Options

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-04-27

    ..., merchants, SDs, commodity funds, futures industry organizations, academics and think tanks, a U.S... particular (i.e., optionality in a contract settling by physical delivery that is used to meet varying demand...

  9. Food and Feed Commodity Vocabulary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Food and Feed Vocabulary was developed to consolidate all the major OPP Commodity Vocabularies into one standardized vocabulary. The EPA-preferred term is the only term that can be used in setting tolerances.

  10. Organized Retailing of Horticultural Commodities

    OpenAIRE

    Sinha, Piyush Kumar; Thomas, Sujo

    2012-01-01

    Owing to rapid urbanization and changing consumption patterns, more and more retailers are trying to put their best efforts to discover new avenues of success when it comes to the sales of horticultural commodities. There are several Indian companies as well as foreign companies who have been focusing all their energies to succeed in the organized retail sector of Indian horticulture commodities. The Indian retail industry is worth $470 million and organized retail stands at $26 million which...

  11. Mineral commodity profiles: Silver

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butterman, W.C.; Hilliard, Henry E.

    2005-01-01

    United States, about 30 companies accounted for more than 90 percent of the silver fabricated. The consumption of silver for all fabrication uses is expected to grow slowly through the decade ending in 2010 at about 1.3 percent per year for the world and 2.4 percent per year for the United States. World and U.S. reserves and reserve bases are more than adequate to satisfy the demand for newly mined silver through 2010. The other components of supply will be silver recovered from scrap, silver from industrial stocks, and silver bullion that is sold into the market from commodity exchange and private stocks.

  12. Petroleum price; Prix du petrole

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maurice, J

    2001-07-01

    The oil market is the most volatile of all markets, with the exception of the Nasdaq. It is also the biggest commodity market in the world. Therefore one cannot avoid forecasting oil prices, nor can one expect to avoid the forecasting errors that have been made in the past. In his report, Joel Maurice draws a distinction between the short term and the medium-long term in analysing the outlook for oil prices. (author)

  13. MICROECONOMIC ASPECTS OF WATER PRICES

    OpenAIRE

    Goić, Srećko

    2004-01-01

    Water as a specific commodity, and water supply as a specific industry, represent a very interesting field for microeconomic analysis. Starting from the fact that in the market economy most of microeconomic categories and relations are turning around the price, this paper is attempting to give a comprehensive analysis of key microeconomic determinants of water prices. Establishing that the water market is a monopolistic one, relations between supply and demand have been analyzed, as well a...

  14. Ethanol, Corn, and Soybean Price Relations in a Volatile Vehicle-Fuels Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cesar Escalante

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available The rapid upward shift in ethanol demand has raised concerns about ethanol’s impact on the price level and volatility of agricultural commodities. The popular press attributes much of this volatility in commodity prices to a price bubble in ethanol fuel and recent deflation. Market economics predicts not only a softening of demand to high commodity prices but also a positive supply response. This volatility in ethanol and commodity prices are investigated using cointegration, vector error corrections (VECM, and multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedascity (MGARCH models. In terms of derived demand theory, results support ethanol and oil demands as derived demands from vehicle-fuel production. Gasoline prices directly influence the prices of ethanol and oil. However, of greater significance for the fuel versus food security issue, results support the effect of agricultural commodity prices as market signals which restore commodity markets to their equilibriums after a demand or supply event (shock. Such shocks may in the short-run increase agricultural commodity prices, but decentralized freely operating markets will mitigate the persistence of these shocks. Results indicate in recent years there are no long-run relations among fuel (ethanol, oil and gasoline prices and agricultural commodity (corn and soybean prices.

  15. AN OVERVIEW OF MAJOR SOURCES OF DATA AND ANALYSES RELATING TO PHYSICAL FUNDAMENTALS IN INTERNATIONAL COMMODITY MARKETS

    OpenAIRE

    Pilar Fajarnes

    2011-01-01

    The debate on whether price movements in commodity markets are determined by changes in physical supply and demand fundamentals or by the speculative effects of financial investors seems to find some element of agreement on one particular point: the need for increased transparency and improved information on futures markets and physical commodity markets. This discussion paper provides an assessment of the current situation with regard to availability of information on physical commodity mark...

  16. 29 CFR 780.114 - Wild commodities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... Agricultural Or Horticultural Commodities § 780.114 Wild commodities. Employees engaged in the gathering or harvesting of wild commodities such as mosses, wild rice, burls and laurel plants, the trapping of wild... 29 Labor 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Wild commodities. 780.114 Section 780.114 Labor Regulations...

  17. 7 CFR 250.57 - Commodity schools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 4 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Commodity schools. 250.57 Section 250.57 Agriculture... TERRITORIES AND POSSESSIONS AND AREAS UNDER ITS JURISDICTION National School Lunch Program (NSLP) and Other Child Nutrition Programs § 250.57 Commodity schools. (a) Categorization of commodity schools. Commodity...

  18. Rising food prices and household food security

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    produce),4 which is the case for the majority of South Africans. In South Africa ... Expressed as a proportion of average monthly income, the increase in the cost of .... innovation in food, nutrition and broader agricultural policies. Mieke Faber ...

  19. Mineral commodity profiles: nitrogen

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kramer, Deborah A.

    2004-01-01

    contributed the remaining 4 percent (International Fertilizer Industry Association, 2003b, p. 1-4). In 2002, world ammonia exports were 13.1 Mt of contained nitrogen. Trinidad and Tobago (22 percent), Russia (18 percent), Ukraine (10 percent), and Indonesia (7 percent) accounted for 57 percent of the world total. The largest importing regions were North America with 36 percent of the total followed by Western Europe with 23 percent and Asia with 22 percent (International Fertilizer Industry Association, 2003b, p. 5L-11). In 2002, world urea production was 51.4 Mt of contained nitrogen, and exports were 12.0 Mt of contained nitrogen. China and India, which were the two largest producing countries, accounted for 48 percent of world production. The United States and Canada produced about 10 percent of the total. Russia and Ukraine together accounted for 28 percent of total urea exports; Central America and South America, 27 percent; and Asia, North America, and Western Europe, 10 percent each. North America accounted for 36 percent of the total urea imports; Western Europe, 23 percent; and Asia, 22 percent (International Fertilizer Industry Association, 2003f, p. 1-15). Ammonia production capacity in North America and Western Europe is projected to decline through 2004, and capacity in other world regions is projected to increase. Fluctuating natural gas prices are mainly responsible for the capacity decline in North America. Ammonia production capacity is continuing to shift to world regions that have abundant sources of natural gas, and away from those where costs (raw material, labor, environmental compliance) are higher.

  20. A Multiperiod Equilibrium Pricing Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Minsuk Kwak

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We propose an equilibrium pricing model in a dynamic multiperiod stochastic framework with uncertain income. There are one tradable risky asset (stock/commodity, one nontradable underlying (temperature, and also a contingent claim (weather derivative written on the tradable risky asset and the nontradable underlying in the market. The price of the contingent claim is priced in equilibrium by optimal strategies of representative agent and market clearing condition. The risk preferences are of exponential type with a stochastic coefficient of risk aversion. Both subgame perfect strategy and naive strategy are considered and the corresponding equilibrium prices are derived. From the numerical result we examine how the equilibrium prices vary in response to changes in model parameters and highlight the importance of our equilibrium pricing principle.

  1. The price of crude oil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bakhtiari, A.M.S.

    1999-01-01

    The price of crude oil is among the most important prices quoted daily across the world - which is not surprising, since crude oil is the most widely used source of energy worldwide, as well as being a unique commodity. When petroleum burst onto the world stage in 1859, its price first went through some initial gyrations (1860-70), before settling in the $1.00 - 2.00 per barrel range (barring a few exceptions) for a full century. Then, the price underwent two 'shocks' (1973 and 1980), followed by the 'counter-shock' of 1986. Thereafter, the price entered the relative stability of the $15 - 20 /b consensus, where it lingered until recently. Some day, there is bound to be a fresh paradigm of 'insufficient oil reserves', thus ushering in a new era for oil prices. Taking into consideration available data on reserves and expert analysis, it would seem that that day may be years rather than decades away

  2. Price Risk and Risk Management in Agriculture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Udo Broll

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available This note studies the risk-management decisions of a risk-averse farmer. The farmer faces multiple sources of price uncertainty. He sells commodities to two markets at two prices, but only one of these markets has a futures market. We show that the farmer’s optimal commodity futures market position, i.e., a cross-hedge strategy, is actually an over-hedge, a full-hedge, or an under-hedge strategy, depending on whether the two prices are strongly positively correlated, uncorrelated, or negatively correlated, respectively.

  3. L'aumento dei prezzi delle attività e della politica monetaria (The increase in asset prices and monetary policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charles P. Kindleberger

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available L’inflazione degli asset, a differenza dell’inflazione ordinaria, che si riferisce a  l'aumento dei prezzi dei beni di consumo, merci all'ingrosso, o il deflatore del reddito nazionale, è un termine che non è in uso in occidente, ma corrente in Giappone. Ci sono momenti in cui gli assets aumenteranno di prezzo in modo inflazionistico, un boom o anche una bolla, mentre i prezzi dell’output sono relativamente stabili o addirittura in calo. Asset inflation, as distinguished from ordinary inflation, the latter referring to rising prices of consumer goods, wholesale commodities, or the national-income deflator, is a phrase not in use in the west, but current in Japan. There are times when assets rise in price in an inflationary way, a boom or even a bubble, while output prices are relatively stable or even declining. JEL Codes: F3, G1, N1, B5 

  4. Research on the Risk Measurement for the Futures Market of Bulk Commodity – Taking the silver futures as the example

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Du Yating

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The futures transaction of bulk commodity has played an important role since China became the global manufacturing center. Taking the commodity futures market in Shanghai as the research objective, this article selects the price of silver futures, uses GARCH-VaR and Stress Testing to measure the risk tolerance of the market. The research result shows the silver price is fluctuated within the scope specified by the market and won't influence the stable operation of futures market.

  5. [Research progress on standards of commodity classes of Chinese materia medica and discussion on several key problems].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Guang; Zeng, Yan; Guo, Lan-Ping; Huang, Lu-Qi; Jin, Yan; Zheng, Yu-Guang; Wang, Yong-Yan

    2014-05-01

    Standards of commodity classes of Chinese materia medica is an important way to solve the "Lemons Problem" of traditional Chinese medicine market. Standards of commodity classes are also helpful to rebuild market mechanisms for "high price for good quality". The previous edition of commodity classes standards of Chinese materia medica was made 30 years ago. It is no longer adapted to the market demand. This article researched progress on standards of commodity classes of Chinese materia medica. It considered that biological activity is a better choice than chemical constituents for standards of commodity classes of Chinese materia medica. It is also considered that the key point to set standards of commodity classes is finding the influencing factors between "good quality" and "bad quality". The article also discussed the range of commodity classes of Chinese materia medica, and how to coordinate standards of pharmacopoeia and commodity classes. According to different demands, diversiform standards can be used in commodity classes of Chinese materia medica, but efficacy is considered the most important index of commodity standard. Decoction pieces can be included in standards of commodity classes of Chinese materia medica. The authors also formulated the standards of commodity classes of Notoginseng Radix as an example, and hope this study can make a positive and promotion effect on traditional Chinese medicine market related research.

  6. Commodity team motivation and performance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Englyst, Linda; Jørgensen, Frances; Johansen, John

    2008-01-01

    In this article, an in-depth single case study is presented in order to explore and discuss the functioning of commodity teams in a global sourcing context. Specifically, the study aimed at identifying factors that may influence team members' motivation to participate in activities that create...... opportunities for synergy and coordination of purchasing. In the teams studied, motivation appeared to be influenced to some degree by a number of factors, including rewards, leadership behaviours, goal setting, and the career goals of the commodity team members. In some cases, inconsistencies between...

  7. Commodity Team Motivation and Performance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Englyst, Linda; Jørgensen, Frances; Johansen, John

    2008-01-01

    In this article, an in-depth single case study is presented in order to explore and discuss the functioning of commodity teams in a global sourcing context. Specifically, the study aimed at identifying factors that may influence team members' motivation to participate in activities that create...... opportunities for synergy and coordination of purchasing. In the teams studied, motivation appeared to be influenced to some degree by a number of factors, including rewards, leadership behaviours, goal setting, and the career goals of the commodity team members. In some cases, inconsistencies between...

  8. Stochastic Modeling and Analysis of Energy Commodity Spot Price Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-06-27

    Eurocurrency data set [129] collected from Forex database . Table 10: Estimates m̂k, βm̂k,k, µm̂k,k, δm̂k,k, σm̂k,k, γm̂k,k for U. S. Treasury Bill...U. S. Eurocurrency rateUS dollar Eurocurrency data set January 1990-December 2004, Forex Database . [130] U. S. Energy Information Administration

  9. World oil prices: Up or down in 1995? and beyond?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Browning, R.E.

    1994-01-01

    After a brief review of historical oil prices up to 1993-94, the factors influencing future prices are discussed. A survey of oil supply and demand over 1986-1993 shows oil demand has risen in Asia and fallen in the former Soviet Union and central/eastern Europe (FSU/CEE). Non-OPEC oil supply fell from 42.1 million bbl/d (MMBD) in 1986 to 40.6 MMBD in 1993, reflecting declines in Russian and U.S. production. Total OPEC production rose in the same period from 18.3 MMBD to 24.7 MMBD. OPEC production will continue to be dominant in determining prices, and demand in growing Asian economies and the FSU/CEE countries will be the most important and uncertain demand-side factor. If 7.5 MMBD of new OPEC capacity comes on stream by 2000 and OPEC production averages 31 MMBD in 2000, the utilization rate for OPEC oil at that time would be about the same as in 1973-79 and 1994. World oil production costs vary considerably by region, with the USA, North Sea, and Canada having relatively high costs; yet even in those regions, costs have been declining. A global weighted average cost based on 1993 production is $8-9/bbl. Fiscal and financial factors affecting oil prices include the need for oil revenue among oil producers. This need will put pressure on FSU economies to continue exports, although increases in such exports will require new infrastructure. In any case, the world oil market is likely to see a continuing trend to regarding oil as a commodity, which tends to reduce the control that physical participants exert on price-setting. Long-term real prices are not expected to rise but will likely remain volatile, cycling around $13/bbl. Spot prices in 1995 for West Texas Intermediate are forecast to be in the $16-20/bbl range. 4 figs., 4 tabs

  10. Value chain management for commodities: a case study from the chemical industry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kannegiesser, M.; Gunther, H.O.; van Beek, P.

    2009-01-01

    decisions by volume and value throughout the value chain to ensure profitability. Contract and spot demand differentiation with volatile and uncertain spot prices, spot sales quantity flexibility, spot sales price-quantity functions and variable raw material consumption rates in production are problem...... quantity, price and supply decisions throughout the value chain. A two-phase optimization approach supports robust planning ensuring minimum profitability even in case of worst-case spot sales price scenarios. Model evaluations with industry case data demonstrate the impact of elasticities, variable raw......We present a planning model for chemical commodities related to an industry case. Commodities are standard chemicals characterized by sales and supply volatility in volume and value. Increasing and volatile prices of crude oil-dependent raw materials require coordination of sales and supply...

  11. Do increasing prices affect food deprivation in the European Union?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sol García-Germán

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available The rise of prices of agricultural commodities in global markets during 2007-2012 was followed by increased consumer food prices around the world. More expensive food may have an impact on consumer food access and thus on their welfare, not only in developing countries but also amongst the most vulnerable in developed countries. Using a longitudinal database from the Statistics on Income and Living Conditions and population-averaged models, we tested whether increasing food prices had an impact on household food deprivation in 26 European Union (EU member states. Results revealed a significant relationship between food deprivation and the consumer food price index and disposable income. Households in the lowest income quintile in the member states recently acceded to the EU were the most vulnerable to food deprivation. Results also showed that low-income households in densely populated areas were more vulnerable to food deprivation. This should be taken into account when evaluating food assistance programmes that focus on the segments of the population most at risk of food deprivation.

  12. Do increasing prices affect food deprivation in the European Union?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    García-Germán, S.; Bardají, I.; Garrido, A.

    2018-01-01

    The rise of prices of agricultural commodities in global markets during 2007-2012 was followed by increased consumer food prices around the world. More expensive food may have an impact on consumer food access and thus on their welfare, not only in developing countries but also amongst the most vulnerable in developed countries. Using a longitudinal database from the Statistics on Income and Living Conditions and population-averaged models, we tested whether increasing food prices had an impact on household food deprivation in 26 European Union (EU) member states. Results revealed a significant relationship between food deprivation and the consumer food price index and disposable income. Households in the lowest income quintile in the member states recently acceded to the EU were the most vulnerable to food deprivation. Results also showed that low-income households in densely populated areas were more vulnerable to food deprivation. This should be taken into account when evaluating food assistance programmes that focus on the segments of the population most at risk of food deprivation.

  13. Gas Price Formation, Structure and Dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Davoust, R.

    2008-07-01

    similar paradigm. Gas-to-gas competition now prevails. Long-term contracting is still the dominant model in Continental Europe and Northeast Asia, because of their dependence on external imports. Thus, pricing there is more rigid, and due to an indexing clause, gas prices closely follow the tendency of oil markets (as we will see further, American and British prices are also coupled to oil, but for less contractual reasons). Logically, the first part of our study analyses North American gas prices, the second part European prices and the third part Asian prices. Since American and British gas markets exhibit the same nature and similar pricing features, it would be more relevant to treat them together. However, if these two markets are close conceptually, there is no specific price connection between them. Indeed, due to the presence of the Interconnector, a pipeline passing under the Channel, UK prices tend to be rather linked to the European Continent's. Therefore, in our paper, the case of the UK is simply studied inside Europe, although in a dedicated paragraph. While observing mid and long-period price series, we will obviously seek common trends, since price integration (convergence or simple correlation) is generally evidence in favor of market integration. Price indications will thus guide us with a view to answer two crucial questions: 1) Did liberalization policies succeed in the US and EU, in their attempt to make natural gas a freely traded commodity? 2) Is a world market for gas emerging? In other words, is natural gas becoming a worldwide traded commodity? The first question concerns intra-regional integration of markets: common price trends between local spot markets (in the case of the US), between member states (in the case of EU), and between piped gas and LNG (in both cases). The second question concerns inter-regional integration of markets. In this view, the case of LNG will be of an overriding importance. Indeed, the higher technical flexibility

  14. Gas Price Formation, Structure and Dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davoust, R.

    2008-01-01

    similar paradigm. Gas-to-gas competition now prevails. Long-term contracting is still the dominant model in Continental Europe and Northeast Asia, because of their dependence on external imports. Thus, pricing there is more rigid, and due to an indexing clause, gas prices closely follow the tendency of oil markets (as we will see further, American and British prices are also coupled to oil, but for less contractual reasons). Logically, the first part of our study analyses North American gas prices, the second part European prices and the third part Asian prices. Since American and British gas markets exhibit the same nature and similar pricing features, it would be more relevant to treat them together. However, if these two markets are close conceptually, there is no specific price connection between them. Indeed, due to the presence of the Interconnector, a pipeline passing under the Channel, UK prices tend to be rather linked to the European Continent's. Therefore, in our paper, the case of the UK is simply studied inside Europe, although in a dedicated paragraph. While observing mid and long-period price series, we will obviously seek common trends, since price integration (convergence or simple correlation) is generally evidence in favor of market integration. Price indications will thus guide us with a view to answer two crucial questions: 1) Did liberalization policies succeed in the US and EU, in their attempt to make natural gas a freely traded commodity? 2) Is a world market for gas emerging? In other words, is natural gas becoming a worldwide traded commodity? The first question concerns intra-regional integration of markets: common price trends between local spot markets (in the case of the US), between member states (in the case of EU), and between piped gas and LNG (in both cases). The second question concerns inter-regional integration of markets. In this view, the case of LNG will be of an overriding importance. Indeed, the higher technical flexibility of

  15. Commodity hardware and software summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wolbers, S.

    1997-04-01

    A review is given of the talks and papers presented in the Commodity Hardware and Software Session at the CHEP97 conference. An examination of the trends leading to the consideration of PC's for HEP is given, and a status of the work that is being done at various HEP labs and Universities is given

  16. Impact assessment of commodity standards

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ruben, Ruerd

    2017-01-01

    Voluntary commodity standards are widely used to enhance the performance of tropical agro-food chains and to support the welfare and sustainability of smallholder farmers. Different methods and approaches are used to assess the effectiveness and impact of these certification schemes at

  17. 41 CFR 51-2.7 - Fair market price.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 41 Public Contracts and Property Management 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 true Fair market price. 51-2.7... WHO ARE BLIND OR SEVERELY DISABLED § 51-2.7 Fair market price. (a) The Committee is responsible for determining fair market prices, and changes thereto, for commodities and services on the Procurement List. The...

  18. 7 CFR 1220.115 - Net market price.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... AGREEMENTS AND ORDERS; MISCELLANEOUS COMMODITIES), DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE SOYBEAN PROMOTION, RESEARCH, AND CONSUMER INFORMATION Soybean Promotion and Research Order Definitions § 1220.115 Net market price. The term net market price means— (a) except as provided in paragraph (b) of this section, the sales price, or...

  19. 7 CFR 1221.16 - Net market price.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... AND ORDERS; MISCELLANEOUS COMMODITIES), DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE SORGHUM PROMOTION, RESEARCH, AND INFORMATION ORDER Sorghum Promotion, Research, and Information Order Definitions § 1221.16 Net market price. Net market price means the sales price, or other value, per volumetric unit, received by a producer...

  20. Volatility behavior of oil, industrial commodity and stock markets in a regime-switching environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, Kyongwook; Hammoudeh, Shawkat

    2010-01-01

    This study supplements previous regime-switching studies on WTI crude oil and finds two possible volatility regimes for the strategic commodity prices of Brent oil, WTI oil, copper, gold and silver, and the S and P 500 index, but with varying high-to-low volatility ratios. The dynamic conditional correlations (DCCs) indicate increasing correlations among all the commodities since the 2003 Iraq war but decreasing correlations with the S and P 500 index. The commodities also show different volatility persistence responses to financial and geopolitical crises, while the S and P 500 index responds to both financial and geopolitical crises. Implications are discussed.

  1. Minerals Price Increases and Volatility: Causes and Consequences

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Cooney, Stephen; Nanto, Dick K

    2008-01-01

    .... Prices have at least nearly doubled between 2001 and 2008. In the case of steel, the most widely used industrial metal, the rise in price appears largely driven by the high prices of iron ore and steel scrap...

  2. 1993 commodity flow survey : state summaries

    Science.gov (United States)

    1997-06-01

    This report summarizes the Commodity Flow Survey (CFS) state reports released between February 1996 and July 1996 by the Bureau of the Census and the 1993 Commodity Flow Survey: Preliminary Observations by the Bureau of Transportation Statistics. Inf...

  3. Delegating pricing power to customers: Pay what you want or name your own price?

    OpenAIRE

    Krämer, Florentin; Schmidt, Klaus M.; Spann, Martin; Stich, Lucas

    2015-01-01

    Pay What You Want (PWYW) and Name Your Own Price (NYOP) are customer driven pricing mechanisms that give customers (some) pricing power. Both have been used in service industries with high fixed costs to price discriminate without setting a reference price. Their participatory and innovative nature gives rise to promotional benefits that do not accrue to posted-price sellers. We explore the nature and effects of these benefits and compare PWYW and NYOP using controlled lab experiments. We sho...

  4. Is women's labor a commodity?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Elizabeth S

    1990-01-01

    ...A commercial surrogate mother is anyone who is paid money to bear a child for other people and terminate her parental rights, so that the others may raise the child as exclusively their own. The growth of commercial surrogacy has raised with new urgency a class of concerns regarding the proper scope of the market. Some critics have objected to commercial surrogacy on the ground that it improperly treats children and women's reproductive capacities as commodities. The prospect of reducing children to consumer durables and women to baby factories surely inspires revulsion. But are there good reasons behind the revulsion? And is this an accurate description of what commercial surrogacy implies? This article offers a theory about what things are properly regarded as commodities which supports the claim that commercial surrogacy constitutes an unconscionable commodification of children and of women's reproductive capacities.

  5. Commodity futures and market efficiency

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Krištoufek, Ladislav; Vošvrda, Miloslav

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 42, č. 1 (2014), s. 50-57 ISSN 0140-9883 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA402/09/0965 Grant - others:GA ČR(CZ) GAP402/11/0948 Program:GA Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : commodities * efficiency * entropy * long-term memory * fractal dimension Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 2.708, year: 2014 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2013/E/kristoufek-0420811.pdf

  6. Aromatherapy Oils: Commodities, Materials, Essences

    OpenAIRE

    Barcan, Ruth

    2014-01-01

    This article examines the essential oils that are the central tools of aromatherapy and uses them as a case study for different approaches to material culture. It considers the conceptual and political implications of thinking of essential oils as, in turn, commodities, materials and essences. I argue that both cultural studies and aromatherapy have something to learn from each other. Classic materialist approaches might do well to focus more attention on the material properties and effects o...

  7. Founding Digital Currency on Imprecise Commodity

    OpenAIRE

    Yuan, Zimu; Xu, Zhiwei

    2015-01-01

    Current digital currency schemes provide instantaneous exchange on precise commodity, in which "precise" means a buyer can possibly verify the function of the commodity without error. However, imprecise commodities, e.g. statistical data, with error existing are abundant in digital world. Existing digital currency schemes do not offer a mechanism to help the buyer for payment decision on precision of commodity, which may lead the buyer to a dilemma between having to buy and being unconfident....

  8. Market risk in commodity markets. A VaR approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Giot, Pierre [Department of Business Administration and CEREFIM at University of Namur, Rempart de la Vierge, 8, 5000 Namur (Belgium); Laurent, Sebastien [Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE) at Universite Catholique de Louvain, Louvain (Belgium)

    2003-09-01

    We put forward Value-at-Risk models relevant for commodity traders who have long and short trading positions in commodity markets. In a 5-year out-of-sample study on aluminium, copper, nickel, Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil daily cash prices and cocoa nearby futures contracts, we assess the performance of the RiskMetrics, skewed Student APARCH and skewed student ARCH models. While the skewed Student APARCH model performs best in all cases, the skewed Student ARCH model delivers good results and its estimation does not require non-linear optimization procedures. As such this new model could be relatively easily integrated in a spreadsheet-like environment and used by market practitioners.

  9. Market risk in commodity markets. A VaR approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Giot, Pierre; Laurent, Sebastien

    2003-01-01

    We put forward Value-at-Risk models relevant for commodity traders who have long and short trading positions in commodity markets. In a 5-year out-of-sample study on aluminium, copper, nickel, Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil daily cash prices and cocoa nearby futures contracts, we assess the performance of the RiskMetrics, skewed Student APARCH and skewed student ARCH models. While the skewed Student APARCH model performs best in all cases, the skewed Student ARCH model delivers good results and its estimation does not require non-linear optimization procedures. As such this new model could be relatively easily integrated in a spreadsheet-like environment and used by market practitioners

  10. Market risk in commodity markets: a VaR approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Giot, P.

    2003-01-01

    We put forward Value-at-Risk models relevant for commodity traders who have long and short trading positions in commodity markets. In a 5-year out-of-sample study on aluminium, copper, nickel, Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil daily cash prices and cocoa nearby futures contracts, we assess the performance of the RiskMetrics, skewed Student APARCH and skewed student ARCH models. While the skewed Student APARCH model performs best in all cases, the skewed Student ARCH model delivers good results and its estimation does not require non-linear optimization procedures. As such this new model could be relatively easily integrated in a spreadsheet-like environment and used by market practitioners. (author)

  11. Rising equity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burr, M.T.

    1992-01-01

    This article reports on the results of a financial rankings survey of the independent energy industry indicating that lenders and investors provided more than five billion dollars in capital for new, private power projects during the first six months of 1992. The topics of the article include rising equity requirements, corporate finance, mergers and acquisitions, project finance investors, revenue bonds, project finance lenders for new projects, project finance lenders for restructurings, and project finance advisors

  12. "Photographing money" task pricing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Zhongxiang

    2018-05-01

    "Photographing money" [1]is a self-service model under the mobile Internet. The task pricing is reasonable, related to the success of the commodity inspection. First of all, we analyzed the position of the mission and the membership, and introduced the factor of membership density, considering the influence of the number of members around the mission on the pricing. Multivariate regression of task location and membership density using MATLAB to establish the mathematical model of task pricing. At the same time, we can see from the life experience that membership reputation and the intensity of the task will also affect the pricing, and the data of the task success point is more reliable. Therefore, the successful point of the task is selected, and its reputation, task density, membership density and Multiple regression of task positions, according to which a nhew task pricing program. Finally, an objective evaluation is given of the advantages and disadvantages of the established model and solution method, and the improved method is pointed out.

  13. Analysis of Price Variation and Market Integration of Prosopis ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Analysis of Price Variation and Market Integration of Prosopis Africana (guill. ... select five markets based on the presence of traders selling the commodity in the markets ... T- test result showed that Prosopis africana seed trade is profitable and ...

  14. Do financial investors affect the price of wheat?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniele Girardi

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available It is widely debated whether financial speculation was a significant force behind recent food price fluctuations. As a matter of fact, during the 2000s agricultural commodity derivatives markets were flooded by a ‘wall of money’ coming from financial investors. In agricultural exchanges, the greatest part of this huge financial inflow came from index traders, i.e. financial actors that follow a passive strategy of tracking a commodity index. In this article I present new empirical evidence that supports the hypothesis that financial investments have affected wheat price dynamics in recent years. In particular, I focus on Hard Red Winter (HRW wheat. Since 2007 HRW wheat price fluctuations have been positively related to US stock market returns and oil price movements. These correlations appear to be determined by commodity index traders, since both these relationships proved to be spurious, with the most tracked commodity index as the confounding variable.

  15. DYNAMICS AND NEW CHALLENGES IN THE GLOBAL COMMODITY MARKET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MARIA CARTAS

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Global economy and particularly the world production of goods depends to a large extent on the supply of raw materials, of resource inputs extracted from the environment as well as an easy access to them. Commodities play an important part in the growth of global production and in the world trade in goods and services. The access to raw materials is vital for sustaining the productive capacity of the economy and also for satisfying domestic demand for industrial goods. On the other side, increasing demand for commodities and the need for assuring a sustainable supply pose great challenges on the world economy. The issue of raw materials supply represents a high - priority theme in the political agenda of the European Union. The Raw Materials Initiative launched in 2008 by the European Commission is based on three main pillars: - to ensure the access to raw materials on world market at undistorted conditions; - to foster sustainable supply of raw materials from European sources; - to reduce the EU's consumption of primary raw materials. (EC, 2008. To this end, EC has started to take action in order to ensure access to resources and avoid supply shortages. A great deal of attention is being paid to the study of recent developments in the global and particular commodity markets, taking into consideration fundamental aspects as supply concentration, governance of producing countries, the pressure of demand and its impact on prices, material's substitutability, stressing the role of resource consumption efficiency, recycling and substitution of vital raw materials and thus providing policy makers and industry with reliable information on how to efficiently manage resource inputs. This paper is dealing with the main developments which occurred during the past decade or so in the global commodity market, a major driver of the world economy, with particular reference to selected key -markets - as: aluminium, copper, nickel; cotton; corn, meat - swine

  16. 17 CFR 270.22c-1 - Pricing of redeemable securities for distribution, redemption and repurchase.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 3 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Pricing of redeemable securities for distribution, redemption and repurchase. 270.22c-1 Section 270.22c-1 Commodity and Securities... 1940 § 270.22c-1 Pricing of redeemable securities for distribution, redemption and repurchase. (a) No...

  17. Speculation and volatility spillover in the crude oil and agricultural commodity markets: A Bayesian analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Du Xiaodong; Yu, Cindy L.; Hayes, Dermot J.

    2011-01-01

    This paper assesses factors that potentially influence the volatility of crude oil prices and the possible linkage between this volatility and agricultural commodity markets. Stochastic volatility models are applied to weekly crude oil, corn, and wheat futures prices from November 1998 to January 2009. Model parameters are estimated using Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. Speculation, scalping, and petroleum inventories are found to be important in explaining the volatility of crude oil prices. Several properties of crude oil price dynamics are established, including mean-reversion, an asymmetry between returns and volatility, volatility clustering, and infrequent compound jumps. We find evidence of volatility spillover among crude oil, corn, and wheat markets after the fall of 2006. This can be largely explained by tightened interdependence between crude oil and these commodity markets induced by ethanol production.

  18. Modelling the impact of oil prices on Vietnam's stock prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Narayan, Paresh Kumar; Narayan, Seema

    2010-01-01

    The goal of this paper is to model the impact of oil prices on Vietnam's stock prices. We use daily data for the period 2000-2008 and include the nominal exchange rate as an additional determinant of stock prices. We find that stock prices, oil prices and nominal exchange rates are cointegrated, and oil prices have a positive and statistically significant impact on stock prices. This result is inconsistent with theoretical expectations. The growth of the Vietnamese stock market was accompanied by rising oil prices. However, the boom of the stock market was marked by increasing foreign portfolio investment inflows which are estimated to have doubled from US$0.9 billion in 2005 to US$1.9 billion in 2006. There was also a change in preferences from holding foreign currencies and domestic bank deposits to stocks local market participants, and there was a rise in leveraged investment in stock as well as investments on behalf of relatives living abroad. It seems that the impact of these internal and domestic factors were more dominant than the oil price rise on the Vietnamese stock market. (author)

  19. Price fairness

    OpenAIRE

    Diller, Hermann

    2013-01-01

    Purpose – The purpose of this article is to integrate the various strands of fair price research into a concise conceptual model. Design/methodology/approach – The proposed price fairness model is based on a review of the fair pricing literature, incorporating research reported in not only English but also German. Findings – The proposed fair price model depicts seven components of a fair price: distributive fairness, consistent behaviour, personal respect and regard for the partner, fair dea...

  20. Explaining European Emission Allowance Price Dynamics: Evidence from Phase II

    OpenAIRE

    Wilfried Rickels; Dennis Görlich; Gerrit Oberst

    2010-01-01

    In 2005, the European Emission Trading Scheme (EU-ETS) established a new commodity: the right to emit a ton of CO2 (EUA). Since its launch, the corresponding price has shown rather turbulent dynamics, including nervous reactions to policy announcements and a price collapse after a visible over-allocation in Phase I. As a consequence, the question whether fundamental factors (fossil fuel prices, economic activity, weather) affect the EUA price remained partially unresolved. Today, being halfwa...

  1. Segmentation of the industrial market for food commodities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bech-Larsen, Tino

    2001-01-01

    by the appearance of changing demands and technological opportunities, which potentially can lead to differentiation possibilities. The article describes a framework for the study of industrial buying of food commodities and the results of a conjoint study based on interviews with oil purchasers in the margarine...... and mayonnaise industries in Denmark, Sweden, Germany, the United Kingdom and Switzerland. The main result of the study is that the price is an omnipotent decision criterion, when vegetable fats and mayonnaise producers buy vegetable oil, but also that product and supplier criteria can be used to segment...

  2. The Effects of Changing Input Costs on Food Prices

    OpenAIRE

    R. McFall Lamm; Paul C. Westcott

    1981-01-01

    The relationships between changes in food sector input costs and retail food prices are examined. Results indicate that increases in factor prices pass quickly to consumers, within two quarters for most foods. In addition, rising farm-level prices and substantial increases in nonfarm resource prices appear to explain why food prices rose more rapidly than nonfood prices in the 1970s. The analysis is based on a twenty-equation econometric model of the food-price determination process, specifie...

  3. Commodity Team Motivation and Performance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Englyst, Linda; Jørgensen, Frances; Johansen, John

    2007-01-01

    This article explores factors influencing the motivation and performance of commodity teams in a global sourcing context. Several challenges are related to the classical dilemma of matrix organization, but with particular implications in this specific context of purchasing. We report on a reward...... system which was intended to support collective team effort, yet enhanced conflicts of interest in the matrix structure, discuss leadership, goal alignment and career tracks, and debate when and whether a team structure is appropriate in the pursuit of corporate purchasing synergies. The article is based...

  4. Commodity profiles for selected metals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Svoboda, O.; Wilson, B.M.

    1985-01-01

    This report describes the basic characteristics of 35 metals and gives the prices and production of these metals for the period 1979 to 1983/4. The description of each metal includes the ore grades and reserves, the major minerals in which the metal occurs, and the discovery, selected physical properties, sources, uses, substitutes, and effects on the environment of the metal. Graphs showing price and production cover the period 1950 to 1984, and possible future developments in these areas are forecast for each metal until the year 2000

  5. A strong argument for using non-commodities to generate electricity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Santiago, Katarina Tatiana Marques; Campello de Souza, Fernando Menezes; Carvalho Bezerra, Diogo de

    2014-01-01

    An optimal control approach towards generating electricity is used to analyze the trade-off between using of primary sources which are regarded as commodities, such as fossil fuels, biomass and water to generate electricity, and exploiting these sources for their other economic uses (for example, in the petrochemical industry, in the production of fuels, in agriculture, in steelmaking, and so forth). In order to do so, a dynamic model is presented which establishes relationships between economic growth, the fossil fuel, water and biomass sectors, and energy policies, based on the application of the Pontryagin Maximum Principle. Among other results, the analysis establishes that, under the optimal path, the price of commodities for non-energy uses should be twice the price of the energy assets. This indicates that sources which are not commodities such as solar energy, wind energy, and geothermal energy, should be used to generate electricity. - Highlights: • We used an optimal control approach to analyze the trade-off between the multiple uses of energy resource. • We used a dynamic model which establishes relationships between economic growth, the fossil fuel, water and biomass sectors. • The analysis establishes that the price of commodities for non-energy uses should be twice the price of the energy assets

  6. 7 CFR 1962.19 - Claims against Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC).

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... sell or pledge to CCC as loan collateral under the Price Support Program, commodities on which FmHA or... County Supervisor will make immediate demand on the borrower for the amount of the CCC loan or the... CCC. (2) On receiving information from the State Director that CCC has called the borrower's loan, the...

  7. Dynamic Pricing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sharifi, Reza; Anvari-Moghaddam, Amjad; Fathi, S. Hamid

    2017-01-01

    Dynamic pricing scheme, also known as real-time pricing (RTP), can be more efficient and technically beneficial than the other price-based schemes (such as flat-rate or time-of-use (TOU) pricing) for enabling demand response (DR) actions. Over the past few years, advantages of RTP-based schemes h...... of dynamic pricing can lead to increased willingness of consumers to participate in DR programs which in turn improve the operation of liberalized electricity markets.......Dynamic pricing scheme, also known as real-time pricing (RTP), can be more efficient and technically beneficial than the other price-based schemes (such as flat-rate or time-of-use (TOU) pricing) for enabling demand response (DR) actions. Over the past few years, advantages of RTP-based schemes...

  8. Mind your pricing cues.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Eric; Simester, Duncan

    2003-09-01

    For most of the items they buy, consumers don't have an accurate sense of what the price should be. Ask them to guess how much a four-pack of 35-mm film costs, and you'll get a variety of wrong answers: Most people will underestimate; many will only shrug. Research shows that consumers' knowledge of the market is so far from perfect that it hardly deserves to be called knowledge at all. Yet people happily buy film and other products every day. Is this because they don't care what kind of deal they're getting? No. Remarkably, it's because they rely on retailers to tell them whether they're getting a good price. In subtle and not-so-subtle ways, retailers send signals to customers, telling them whether a given price is relatively high or low. In this article, the authors review several common pricing cues retailers use--"sale" signs, prices that end in 9, signpost items, and price-matching guarantees. They also offer some surprising facts about how--and how well--those cues work. For instance, the authors' tests with several mail-order catalogs reveal that including the word "sale" beside a price can increase demand by more than 50%. The practice of using a 9 at the end of a price to denote a bargain is so common, you'd think customers would be numb to it. Yet in a study the authors did involving a women's clothing catalog, they increased demand by a third just by changing the price of a dress from $34 to $39. Pricing cues are powerful tools for guiding customers' purchasing decisions, but they must be applied judiciously. Used inappropriately, the cues may breach customers' trust, reduce brand equity, and give rise to lawsuits.

  9. Market, trading and coal price

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Muller, J.C.; Cornot-Gandolphe, S.; Labrunie, L.; Lemoine, St.; Vandijck, M.

    2006-01-01

    The coal world experienced a true upheaval in the past five years World coal consumption went up 28 % between 2000 and 2005, as a result of the strong growth in Chinese demand. The growth should continue in the coming years: electrical plant builders' orders are mainly for coal. The regained interest in coal is based on the constraints experienced by competing energies (increase in oil and natural gas prices, geopolitical uncertainties, supply difficulties) and by the abundant reserves of coal in the world and the competitiveness of its price. The strong growth in world coal demand comes with a change in rules governing steam coal trading. While long term bilateral agreements were most common until the late nineties, there has been a true revolution in coal marketing since 2000: spot contracts, stock exchange emergence and futures contracts, price indexes. In a few years, the steam coal market has become a true commodities market, overtaking many more goods. The price of coal has also gone through strong variations since 2003. Whereas the price had been stable for decades, in 2004 the strong increase in China' s demand for coal and iron ore resulting in transport shortage, caused a strong increase in CAF coal prices. Since then, prices have gone down, but remain higher than the Eighties and Nineties levels. In spite of the increase, coal remains available at more competitive prices than its competing energies. (authors)

  10. Commodity exchanges - Function and operation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Levin, R.A.

    1991-01-01

    The author discusses the potential impacts that a futures market may have on the international trade of uranium. The discussion first centers around the New York Mercantile Exchange. The following market aspects are discussed: long-term contracting; spot market; commoditization and pricing; and advantages, disadvantages, risks, and provisions of futures market contracts

  11. Manufacturing process design for multi commodities in agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prasetyawan, Yudha; Santosa, Andrian Henry

    2017-06-01

    High-potential commodities within particular agricultural sectors should be accompanied by maximum benefit value that can be attained by both local farmers and business players. In several cases, the business players are small-medium enterprises (SMEs) which have limited resources to perform added value process of the local commodities into the potential products. The weaknesses of SMEs such as the manual production process with low productivity, limited capacity to maintain prices, and unattractive packaging due to conventional production. Agricultural commodity is commonly created into several products such as flour, chips, crackers, oil, juice, and other products. This research was initiated by collecting data by interview method particularly to obtain the perspectives of SMEs as the business players. Subsequently, the information was processed based on the Quality Function Deployment (QFD) to determine House of Quality from the first to fourth level. A proposed design as the result of QFD was produced and evaluated with Technology Assessment Model (TAM) and continued with a revised design. Finally, the revised design was analyzed with financial perspective to obtain the cost structure of investment, operational, maintenance, and workers. The machine that performs manufacturing process, as the result of revised design, was prototyped and tested to determined initial production process. The designed manufacturing process offers IDR 337,897, 651 of Net Present Value (NPV) in comparison with the existing process value of IDR 9,491,522 based on similar production input.

  12. Vertical price transmission in the Danish food chain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Jørgen Dejgård; Møller, Anja Skadkær

    2005-01-01

    This purpose of this paper is to investigate price transmission patterns through selected Danish food chains – from primary production to processing, from processing to wholesale and from wholesale to retail prices. Specifically, the study addresses the following research questions: To what extent...... are commodity prices transmitted from one stage to another in the food chain? What is the time horizon in the price transmission? Is price transmission symmetric – in the short run and in the long run? Is the degree of price transmission affected by the degree of concentration in the supply and demand stage...... considered? These questions are analysed theoretically and empirically using econometric analysis. 6 food chains are investigated: pork, chicken, eggs, milk, sugar and apples. Preliminary empirical results suggest that for most commodities, price transmission tends to be upward asymmetric, i.e. stronger...

  13. Metal prices in the United States through 2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    ,

    2013-01-01

    This report, which updates and revises the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) (1999) publication, “Metal Prices in the United States Through 1998,” presents an extended price history for a wide range of metals available in a single document. Such information can be useful for the analysis of mineral commodity issues, as well as for other purposes. The chapter for each mineral commodity includes a graph of annual current and constant dollar prices for 1970 through 2010, where available; a list of significant events that affected prices; a brief discussion of the metal and its history; and one or more tables that list current dollar prices. In some cases, the metal prices presented herein are for some alternative form of an element or, instead of a price, a value, such as the value for an import as appraised by the U.S. Customs Service. Also included are the prices for steel, steel scrap, and iron ore—steel because of its importance to the elements used to alloy with it, and steel scrap and iron ore because of their use in steelmaking. A few minor metals, such as calcium, potassium, sodium, strontium, and thorium, for which price histories were insufficient, were excluded. The annual prices given may be averages for the year, yearend prices, or some other price as appropriate for a particular commodity. Certain trade journals have been the source of much of this price information—American Metal Market, ICIS Chemical Business, Engineering and Mining Journal, Industrial Minerals, Metal Bulletin, Mining Journal, Platts Metals Week, Roskill Information Services Ltd. commodity reports, and Ryan’s Notes. Price information also is available in minerals information publications of the USGS (1880–1925, 1996–present) and the U.S. Bureau of Mines (1926–95), such as Mineral Commodity Summaries, Mineral Facts and Problems, Mineral Industry Surveys, and Minerals Yearbook. In addition to prices themselves, these journals and publications contain information relevant to

  14. Producers give prices a boost

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1992-01-01

    Uranium producers came alive in August, helping spot prices crack the $8.00 barrier for the first time since March. The upper end of NUKEM's price range actually finished the month at $8.20. Scrambling to fulfill their long-term delivery contracts, producers dominate the market. In the span of three weeks, five producers came out for 2 million lbs U3O8, ultimately buying nearly 1.5 million lbs. One producer accounted for over half this volume. The major factor behind rising prices was that producers required specific origins to meet contract obligations. Buyers willing to accept open origins created the lower end of NUKEM's price range

  15. Speculative phenomena impact on oil prices formation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomas, Matthieu

    2009-01-01

    Crude oil prices evolution between 2007 and 2009 has been the centre of a major controversy. This paper aims to understand the structural changes which happened on the oil market during the past decade. Analysis is focused on the consequences on oil prices of growing financial investments in commodities. More specifically, emphasis is set on little commented facts that comfort the hypothesis of a speculative bubble between 2007 and 2009

  16. Aromatherapy Oils: Commodities, Materials, Essences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruth Barcan

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available This article examines the essential oils that are the central tools of aromatherapy and uses them as a case study for different approaches to material culture. It considers the conceptual and political implications of thinking of essential oils as, in turn, commodities, materials and essences. I argue that both cultural studies and aromatherapy have something to learn from each other. Classic materialist approaches might do well to focus more attention on the material properties and effects of things. Aromatherapy, on the other hand, could benefit from the enriched political understanding associated with classic materialist critique. New materialist strains of cultural studies may also find the vibrancy of matter that underpins many CAM/New Age practices worthy of examination.

  17. Choosing a commode for the ward environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ballinger, C; Pain, H; Pascoe, J; Gore, S

    The choice of appropriate equipment to promote patient independence and enhance nursing care is of major concern to the nurse in the ward environment. This article reports on a recent evaluation of specialist commodes, (Ballinger et al, 1994), with reference to the programme funded by the Medical Devices Agency, Department of Health, under whose auspices the project was carried out. The results of user evaluations and technical tests of six mobile commodes are presented, the preferred model being the Mayfair commode supplied by Carters (J&A) Ltd. The article concludes by identifying a number of important considerations to bear in mind when selecting a commode.

  18. Future markets and the two dimensions of instability in commodity markets: The oil experience

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Calabre, S.

    1991-01-01

    Public opinion and the media often suggest that futures markets have made the price of oil more unstable than it otherwise should be. It is argued that short-term price instability, associated with the functioning commodity futures markets, must be distinguished from medium-term instability, associated with the processes that adjust supply and consumption. Futures markets appear to be price destabilizing at times, although they also facilitate the management of trade in oil. In the medium term, however, stability and instability are determined by the mechanisms that adjust production and consumption. 39 refs., 4 figs

  19. Transfer Pricing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Søren Bo

    2014-01-01

    Against a background of rather mixed evidence about transfer pricing practices in multinational enterprises (MNEs) and varying attitudes on the part of tax authorities, this paper explores how multiple aims in transfer pricing can be pursued across four different transfer pricing regimes. A MNE h...

  20. Survey of Alternative Feedstocks for Commodity Chemical Manufacturing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McFarlane, Joanna [ORNL; Robinson, Sharon M [ORNL

    2008-02-01

    The current high prices for petroleum and natural gas have spurred the chemical industry to examine alternative feedstocks for the production of commodity chemicals. High feedstock prices have driven methanol and ammonia production offshore. The U.S. Chemical Industry is the largest user of natural gas in the country. Over the last 30 years, alternatives to conventional petroleum and natural gas feedstocks have been developed, but have limited, if any, commercial implementation in the United States. Alternative feedstocks under consideration include coal from unconventional processing technologies, such as gasification and liquefaction, novel resources such as biomass, stranded natural gas from unconventional reserves, and heavy oil from tar sands or oil shale. These feedstock sources have been evaluated with respect to the feasibility and readiness for production of the highest volume commodity chemicals in the United States. Sources of organic compounds, such as ethanol from sugar fermentation and bitumen-derived heavy crude are now being primarily exploited for fuels, rather than for chemical feedstocks. Overall, government-sponsored research into the use of alternatives to petroleum feedstocks focuses on use for power and transportation fuels rather than for chemical feedstocks. Research is needed to reduce cost and technical risk. Use of alternative feedstocks is more common outside the United States R&D efforts are needed to make these processes more efficient and less risky before becoming more common domestically. The status of alternative feedstock technology is summarized.

  1. Global stocks of selected mineral-based commodities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilburn, David R.; Bleiwas, Donald I.; Karl, Nick A.

    2016-12-05

    IntroductionThe U.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information Center, analyzes mineral and metal supply chains by identifying and describing major components of mineral and material flows from ore extraction, through intermediate forms, to a final product. This report focuses on an important component of the world’s supply chain: the amounts and global distribution of major consumer, producer, and exchange stocks of selected mineral commodities. In this report, the term “stock” is used instead of “inventory” and refers to accumulations of mined ore, intermediate products, and refined mineral-based commodities that are in a form that meets the agreed-upon specifications of a buyer or processor of intermediate products. These may include certain ores such as bauxite, concentrates, smelter products, and refined metals. Materials sometimes referred to as inventory for accounting purposes, such as ore contained in a deposit or in a leach pile, or materials that need to be further processed before they can be shipped to a consumer, are not considered. Stocks may be held (owned) by consumers, governments, investors, producers, and traders. They may serve as (1) a means to achieve economic, social, and strategic goals through government policies; (2) a secure source of supply to meet demand and to mitigate potential shortages in the supply chain; (3) a hedge to mitigate price volatility; and (4) vehicles for speculative investment.The paucity and uneven reliability of data for stocks of ores and concentrates and for material held by producers, consumers, and merchants hinder the accurate estimating of the size and distribution of this portion of the supply chain for certain commodities. This paper reviews the more visible stocks held in commodity exchange warehouses distributed throughout the world.

  2. The Minimum Wage, Restaurant Prices, and Labor Market Structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aaronson, Daniel; French, Eric; MacDonald, James

    2008-01-01

    Using store-level and aggregated Consumer Price Index data, we show that restaurant prices rise in response to minimum wage increases under several sources of identifying variation. We introduce a general model of employment determination that implies minimum wage hikes cause prices to rise in competitive labor markets but potentially fall in…

  3. Will Commodity Properties Affect Seller's Creditworthy: Evidence in C2C E-commerce Market in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Hui; Ling, Min

    This paper finds out that the credit rating level shows significant difference among different sub-commodity markets in E-commerce, which provides room for sellers to get higher credit rating by entering businesses with higher average credit level before fraud. In order to study the influence of commodity properties on credit rating, this paper analyzes how commodity properties affect average crediting rating through the degree of information asymmetry, returns and costs of fraud, credibility perception and fraud tolerance. Empirical study shows that Delivery, average trading volume, average price and complaint possibility have decisive impacts on credit performance; brand market share, the degree of standardization and the degree of imitation also have a relatively less significant effect on credit rating. Finally, this paper suggests that important commodity properties should be introduced to modify reputation system, for preventing credit rating arbitrage behavior where sellers move into low-rating commodity after being assigned high credit rating.

  4. The Commodity and its Exchange

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Høst, Jeppe Engset

    2015-01-01

    and the value of the quota are examined through the concrete exchange of fishing rights, and it is explained why quota trade can give rise to speculation and monopolies. In the final part of the chapter, it is argued that the value of transferable fishing quotas rely on a social relation between owners...

  5. Price generating process and volatility in the Nigerian agricultural ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The study examined the price generating process and volatility of Nigerian agricultural commodities market using secondary data for price series on meat, cereals, sugar, dairy and food for the period of January 1990 to February 2014. The data were analysed using both descriptive and inferential statistics. The descriptive ...

  6. 17 CFR 19.01 - Reports on stocks and fixed price purchases and sales pertaining to futures positions in wheat...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... Commission or its designee. (Approved by the Office of Management and Budget under control number 3038-0009... composition of the fixed price cash position of each commodity hedged including: (1) The quantity of stocks... commitments open in such cash commodities and their products and byproducts. (3) The quantity of fixed price...

  7. 17 CFR 270.22e-2 - Pricing of redemption requests in accordance with Rule 22c-1.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 3 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Pricing of redemption requests in accordance with Rule 22c-1. 270.22e-2 Section 270.22e-2 Commodity and Securities Exchanges....22e-2 Pricing of redemption requests in accordance with Rule 22c-1. An investment company shall not be...

  8. Development of commodity exchange in Croatia

    OpenAIRE

    Sicel, Mladen

    2009-01-01

    Purpose of this thesis work is to show relevance and necessarity for existing of commodity exchange and it’s influence to the economy of Croatia. Because eastern part of Croatia, region called Slavonia is mostly agricultural oriented, it is of essential relevance to establish and make operate of first commodity exchange in Croatia.

  9. Electricity: French industrialists tied up by prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jemain, A.

    2004-01-01

    With more than 50% of increase in 3 years, the electricity prices reach summits in France. The industrialists, initially enthusiastic over the promises of the liberalization of European energy markets, are today particularly disappointed and denounce an irrational logic. The reasons of these inflationary prices are explained in this article: alignment of electricity prices with respect to the prices of the less efficient producers (oil and gas power plants), lack of peak production means which induces prices volatility, a commodity market model unsuitable to electricity specificities, lack of transparency in the establishment of reference prices, no margins for negotiation, and will of Electricite de France (EdF) to restore its financial status. (J.S.)

  10. Reflections on the reporting of the uranium spot price

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Novak, E.D.

    1984-01-01

    Reporting of the Spot Uranium Price does not represent the uranium market, but actually represents the extremities of a market. The Spot Prices tend to cause instabilities in the market if relied upon too heavily and an excessive use will actually support a questionable transition from a fuel supply industry to a commodities industry. Utility fuel buyers and uranium sellers must be careful how they use the Spot Price, or they will continue to create an unstable supply/demand relationship. But, since we all rely upon statistics for the illusion of independence, we may get the commodities market, assisted along by the information people, whether we want it or not

  11. Dynamic analysis of policy drivers for bioenergy commodity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jeffers, Robert F.; Jacobson, Jacob J.; Searcy, Erin M.

    2013-01-01

    Biomass is increasingly being considered as a feedstock to provide a clean and renewable source of energy in the form of both liquid fuels and electric power. In the United States, the biofuels and biopower industries are regulated by different policies and have different drivers, which impact the maximum price the industries are willing to pay for biomass. This article describes a dynamic computer simulation model that analyzes future behavior of bioenergy feedstock markets given policy and technical options. The model simulates the long-term dynamics of these markets by treating advanced biomass feedstocks as a commodity and projecting the total demand of each industry, as well as the market price over time. The model is used for an analysis of the United States bioenergy feedstock market that projects supply, demand, and market price given three independent buyers: domestic biopower, domestic biofuels, and foreign exports. With base-case assumptions, the biofuels industry is able to dominate the market and meet the federal Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) targets for advanced biofuels. Further analyses suggest that United States bioenergy studies should include estimates of export demand in their projections, and that GHG-limiting policy would partially shield both industries from export dominance. - Highlights: ► We model a United States bioenergy feedstock commodity market. ► Three buyers compete for biomass: biopower, biofuels, and foreign exports. ► The presented methodology improves on dynamic economic equilibrium theory. ► With current policy incentives and ignoring exports, biofuels dominates the market. ► Overseas biomass demand could dominate unless a CO 2 -limiting policy is enacted.

  12. Equilibrium prices supported by dual price functions in markets with non-convexities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bjoerndal, Mette; Joernsten, Kurt

    2004-06-01

    The issue of finding market clearing prices in markets with non-convexities has had a renewed interest due to the deregulation of the electricity sector. In the day-ahead electricity market, equilibrium prices are calculated based on bids from generators and consumers. In most of the existing markets, several generation technologies are present, some of which have considerable non-convexities, such as capacity limitations and large start up costs. In this paper we present equilibrium prices composed of a commodity price and an uplift charge. The prices are based on the generation of a separating valid inequality that supports the optimal resource allocation. In the case when the sub-problem generated as the integer variables are held fixed to their optimal values possess the integrality property, the generated prices are also supported by non-linear price-functions that are the basis for integer programming duality. (Author)

  13. Oil price prospects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Toalster, J.

    1992-01-01

    In this paper, four different, popular approaches to the analysis of oil price movements will be considered and an alternative method will be proposed. Whilst we await the development of a rigorous theoretical framework within which to evaluate the phenomenon of oil price movements some progress may be effected by an amalgam of approaches, with the traditional supply and demand model being supplemented by observations regarding political and social developments in particular countries or regions, together with an assessment of emerging and prospective technological achievements. In this way it should be possible to identify the critical influences at work, from which it should also be possible to select either the single most important variable or combination of variables, affecting the oil price. Moreover, it is my belief that the crucial variables influencing the oil price almost certainly, are more likely to be political and social, rather than economic. In this context and notwithstanding the fact that there is only a minimal level of surplus productive capacity in the world oil industry at present (perhaps 1-2 million b/d albeit rising rapidly), it is reasonable to conclude that oil prices will average around $18-19 a barrel for North Sea Brent in 1992 and 1993, with oscillations of $2-4 a barrel either side, rising slightly in 1994 to $19-20 a barrel and to $20-21 a barrel in 1995. Thereafter, the most likely outcome is for a rise in line with inflation (say $ a barrel/annum) with no prospect of an upward spike, because demand will be weaker than most commentators expect up to the year 2000, whilst OPEC oil supplies will be substantially higher than the consensus forecast. (author)

  14. 17 CFR 33.3 - Unlawful commodity option transactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Unlawful commodity option... REGULATION OF DOMESTIC EXCHANGE-TRADED COMMODITY OPTION TRANSACTIONS § 33.3 Unlawful commodity option... of, or maintain a position in, any commodity option transaction subject to the provisions of this...

  15. 17 CFR 32.11 - Suspension of commodity option transactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Suspension of commodity option... REGULATION OF COMMODITY OPTION TRANSACTIONS § 32.11 Suspension of commodity option transactions. (a... accept money, securities or property in connection with, the purchase or sale of any commodity option, or...

  16. Price Increases in the Aftermath of Hurricane Katrina: Authority to Limit Price Gouging

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Welborn, Angie A; Flynn, Aaron M

    2005-01-01

    ... gasoline prices, in other parts of the country. State laws regarding price gouging in the event of an emergency are discussed as is the role the Federal Government could play in addressing rising gas prices in other parts of the country...

  17. Transfer Pricing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rohde, Carsten; Rossing, Christian Plesner

    trade internally as the units have to decide what prices should be paid for such inter-unit transfers. One important challenge is to uncover the consequences that different transfer prices have on the willingness in the organizational units to coordinate activities and trade internally. At the same time...... the determination of transfer price will affect the size of the profit or loss in the organizational units and thus have an impact on the evaluation of managers‟ performance. In some instances the determination of transfer prices may lead to a disagreement between coordination of the organizational units...

  18. Oil prices and economic growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Babusiaux, D.; Lescaroux, F.

    2006-01-01

    There is no limit to the sources of hydrocarbons (whether pumped out of the earth or produced in factories) for the next few decades, but there is and will be a need for increasingly complex and costly techniques as the usual sources of petroleum run out. Does this mean that prices will keep on rising? Probably, since environmental costs must be added onto direct costs. The mining of oil out of 'tar sands', for example, or the production of hydrocarbons by the chemical industry will have a significant impact owing to the emission of greenhouse gases. If prices do rise in the short or middle term, the cause will have to do more with the calendar of investments than with the availability of energy and its costs. In the long run however, price hikes are not all that certain. A few points for analyzing and predicting the macro-and micro-economic effects of fluctuating oil prices are discussed. (author)

  19. Space and commodity-based society

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gvozden Vladimir

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The space is privileged in the commodity-based society. It is well known that the economic space in the 19th and 20th centuries rapidly managed to subordinate all other areas 'conveying and instilling in them their own meanings and goals' (G. Milatović. A new form of space that qualifies commodity society was created, marked by dualities: openness-closeness, private-public, sameness-difference. This paper is an attempt to criticize the usual analysis of the categories of commodity-space, linked to the ambivalent role of the state as a guarantor of the functioning of the commodity-based society, as well as its controlling instance. The increasing delocalisation of the political changes the nature of the space in the commodity-based society. Privileged areas are produced that create an illusion of protection of consumers (shopping malls, gated communities, theme parks, video surveillance, while at the same time social differentiation and identification are produced through the symbolic order of commodities and a sense of inclusion or exclusion from that order. At the same time, the examples of tourism and selling places demonstrate that such a commodity-space unusually easy reconciles sameness and difference. It entails uniformity to help achieve the fluctuation of goods, while insisting on the local as different, especially in terms of the role of particularity in the global trade.

  20. The logic of the primary energy prices evolution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Giraud, P.N.

    1992-01-01

    This paper deals, very briefly, with the basis factors determining the prices levels of the primary energies and the logic of their evolution both in the short and in the long term. It first gives definitions: of the limits of mineral commodities prices fluctuations and of the long term equilibrium prices. Then, it tries to demonstrate three points: (1) Coal and nuclear electricity prices are driven in the long term only by their own production and environmental costs. Moreover, coal prices fluctuations are surrounded by factors which are basically independent from oil prices. (2) There is no such thing as one single equilibrium price for oil, but several ones, depending on political factors, and among them, on the degree of consensus between the 'Five' of the Gulf (Saudi Arabia, Iran, Irak, Koweit, The Emirates). (3) Natural gas prices are in an intermediate situation, but tend to get closer to the case of coal and nuclear prices. 4 figs

  1. Dynamical Models For Prices With Distributed Delays

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mircea Gabriela

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available In the present paper we study some models for the price dynamics of a single commodity market. The quantities of supplied and demanded are regarded as a function of time. Nonlinearities in both supply and demand functions are considered. The inventory and the level of inventory are taken into consideration. Due to the fact that the consumer behavior affects commodity demand, and the behavior is influenced not only by the instantaneous price, but also by the weighted past prices, the distributed time delay is introduced. The following kernels are taken into consideration: demand price weak kernel and demand price Dirac kernel. Only one positive equilibrium point is found and its stability analysis is presented. When the demand price kernel is weak, under some conditions of the parameters, the equilibrium point is locally asymptotically stable. When the demand price kernel is Dirac, the existence of the local oscillations is investigated. A change in local stability of the equilibrium point, from stable to unstable, implies a Hopf bifurcation. A family of periodic orbits bifurcates from the positive equilibrium point when the time delay passes through a critical value. The last part contains some numerical simulations to illustrate the effectiveness of our results and conclusions.

  2. Portfolio Diversification with Commodity Futures: Properties of Levered Futures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Woodard, J.D.; Egelkraut, T.M.; Garcia, P.; Pennings, J.M.E.

    2005-01-01

    Portfolio Diversification with Commodity Futures: Properties of Levered Futures This study extends previous work on the impact of commodity futures on portfolio performance by explicitly incorporating levered futures into the portfolio optimization problem. Using data on nine individual commodity

  3. Canadian natural gas market: dynamics and pricing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2000-01-01

    This publication by the National Energy Board is part of a continuing program of assessing applications for long-term natural gas export licences. The market-based procedure used by the Board is based on the premise that the marketplace will generally operate in a way that will ensure that Canadian requirements for natural gas will be met at fair market prices. The market--based procedure consists of a public hearing and a monitoring component. The monitoring component involves the on-going assessment of Canadian energy markets to provide analyses of major energy commodities on either an individual or integrated commodity basis. This report is the result of the most recent assessment . It identifies factors that affect natural gas prices and describes the functioning of regional markets in Canada. It provides an overview of the energy demand, including recent trends, reviews the North American gas supply and markets, the natural gas pricing dynamics in Canada, and a regional analysis of markets, prices and dynamics in British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec and the Atlantic provinces. In general, demand growth outstripped growth in supply, but natural gas producers throughout North America have been responding to the current high price environment with aggressive drilling programs. The Board anticipates that in time, there will be a supply and demand response and accompanying relief in natural gas prices. A review of the annual weighted average border price paid for Alberta gas indicates that domestic gas users paid less than export customers until 1998, at which point the two prices converged, suggesting that Canadians have had access to natural gas at prices no less favourable than export customers. The influence of electronic trading systems such as NYMEX and AECO-C/NIT have had significant impact on the pricing of natural gas. These systems, by providing timely information to market participants. enables them to manage price

  4. Petroleum price

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chevallier, B.

    2009-01-01

    The 'AFTP' conference on 'petroleum prices' organized by Total last March, tries to explain the different aspects of the crisis we undergo for July 2007 and its consequential effects on the petroleum markets (supply, demand evolvements, impacts on reserves, prices, refining...). (O.M.)

  5. Real Time Business Analytics for Buying or Selling Transaction on Commodity Warehouse Receipt System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Djatna, Taufik; Teniwut, Wellem A.; Hairiyah, Nina; Marimin

    2017-10-01

    The requirement for smooth information such as buying and selling is essential for commodity warehouse receipt system such as dried seaweed and their stakeholders to transact for an operational transaction. Transactions of buying or selling a commodity warehouse receipt system are a risky process due to the fluctuations in dynamic commodity prices. An integrated system to determine the condition of the real time was needed to make a decision-making transaction by the owner or prospective buyer. The primary motivation of this study is to propose computational methods to trace market tendency for either buying or selling processes. The empirical results reveal that feature selection gain ratio and k-NN outperforms other forecasting models, implying that the proposed approach is a promising alternative to the stock market tendency of warehouse receipt document exploration with accurate level rate is 95.03%.

  6. 2002 commodity flow survey : state summaries

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-07-01

    This report summarizes the 2002 Commodity Flow Survey (CFS) : state reports released in March 2005 by the Bureau of Transportation : Statistics (BTS) of the Research and Innovative Technology Administration : of the USDOT and the Census Bureau of the...

  7. Higher fuel and food prices

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arndt, Channing; Benfica, Rui; Maximiano, Nelson

    2008-01-01

    of Mozambique indicates that the fuel price shock dominates rising food prices from both macroeconomic and poverty perspectives. Again, negative impacts are larger in urban areas. The importance of agricultural production response in general and export response in particular is highlighted. Policy analysis...... analysis indicates that urban households and households in the southern region are more vulnerable to food price increases. Rural households, particularly in the North and Center, often benefit from being in a net seller position. Longer-term analysis using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model...

  8. Changes of uranium market price and trend in recent years

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Xingwu; Chen Zuyi

    2008-01-01

    The market price (especially the spot price ) of uranium has experienced significant changes since 2004. Several stages of uranium price are summed up. It is the slow increase period of uranium price from 1991 to 2004, The uranium price rapid rise from 2005 to 2007. The price of uranium jumped sharply from the fourth quarter 2006 to first half of 2007. The price of uranium rapid declined and tended to be stable from second half 2007 to this day. Characteristics, reason and change trend of uranium price in these stages are summarized. (authors)

  9. Gas prices and price process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Groenewegen, G.G.

    1992-01-01

    On a conference (Gas for Europe in the 1990's) during the Gasexpo '91 the author held a speech of which the Dutch text is presented here. Attention is paid to the current European pricing methods (prices based on the costs of buying, transporting and distributing the natural gas and prices based on the market value, which is deducted from the prices of alternative fuels), and the transparency of the prices (lack of information on the way the prices are determined). Also attention is paid to the market signal transparency and gas-gas competition, which means a more or less free market of gas distribution. The risks of gas-to-gas competition for a long term price stability, investment policies and security of supply are discussed. Opposition against the Third Party Access (TPA), which is the program to implement gas-to-gas competition, is caused by the fear of natural gas companies for lower gas prices and lower profits. Finally attention is paid to government regulation and the activities of the European Commission (EC) in this matter. 1 fig., 6 ills., 1 tab

  10. Rambutan Commodity Development Strategy as Regional Potential Product

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amin Pujiati

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The potential product of a region needs to be developed in order to improve the social welfare. Commonly, at harvest time, there is abundant horticulture commodity. Unluckily, the price of the commodity drops significantly. In other words, it costs extremely cheap. The purpose of research is analyzing the internal and external factors and determining an appropriate strategy for developing rambutan in Central Java, especially at Gunungpati District, Semarang, Central Java Province. The primary data of this research is obtained from 58 rambutan farmers that have been interviewed and have filled out the questionnaire forms. The secondary data is taken from the Central Bureau of Statistics, the monograph of the village and the internet by implementing the literature study method. Then, SWOT analysis is implemented for analizing the data. The internal factors that become the strengths are fertilized land for rambutan to grow and the farmers’ hereditary experiences in cultivating rambutan. Further, the lack of absorbing power of knowledge and technologies and the low existence of rambutan business are the weaknesses. Next, the external factor that becomes opportunity is the continuous increasing market demand, while the threat is the young generations having no interest in rambutan business. Finally, the stability (hold and maintain strategy should be implemented for developing rambutan business

  11. Rambutan Commodity Development Strategy as Regional Potential Product

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amin Pujiati

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The potential product of a region needs to be developed in order to improve the social welfare. Commonly, at harvest time, there is abundant horticulture commodity. Unluckily, the price of the commodity drops significantly. In other words, it costs  extremely cheap. The purpose of research is analyzing the internal and external factors and determining an appropriate strategy for developing rambutan in Central Java, especially at Gunungpati District, Semarang, Central Java Province. The primary data of this research is obtained from 58 rambutan farmers that have been interviewed and have filled out the questionnaire forms. The secondary data is taken from the Central Bureau of Statistics, the monograph of the village and the internet by implementing the literature study method. Then, SWOT analysis is implemented for analizing the data. The internal factors that become the strengths are fertilized land for rambutan to grow and the farmers’ hereditary experiences in cultivating rambutan. Further, the lack of absorbing power of knowledge and technologies and the low existence of rambutan business are the weaknesses. Next, the external factor that becomes opportunity is the continuous increasing market demand, while the threat is the young generations having no interest in rambutan business. Finally, the stability (hold and maintain strategy should be implemented for developing rambutan business

  12. An analysis of price and volatility transmission in butter, palm oil and crude oil markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dennis Bergmann

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Recent changes to the common agricultural policy (CAP saw a shift to greater market orientation for the EU dairy industry. Given this reorientation, the volatility of EU dairy commodity prices has sharply increased, creating the need to develop proper risk management tools to protect farmers’ income and to ensure stable prices for processors and consumers. In addition, there is a perceived threat that these commodities may be replaced by cheaper substitutes, such as palm oil, as dairy commodity prices become more volatile. Global production of palm oil almost doubled over the last decade while butter production remained relatively flat. Palm oil also serves as a feedstock for biodiesel production, thus establishing a new link between agricultural commodities and crude oil. Price and volatility transmission effects between EU and World butter prices, as well as between butter, palm oil and crude oil prices, before and after the Luxembourg agreement, are analysed. Vector autoregression (VAR models are applied to capture price transmission effects between these markets. These are combined with a multivariate GARCH model to account for potential volatility transmission. Results indicate strong price and volatility transmission effects between EU and World butter prices. EU butter shocks further spillover to palm oil volatility. In addition, there is evidence that oil prices spillover to World butter prices and World butter volatility.

  13. Higher household expenditure on animal-source and nongrain foods lowers the risk of stunting among children 0-59 months old in Indonesia: implications of rising food prices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sari, Mayang; de Pee, Saskia; Bloem, Martin W; Sun, Kai; Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L; Moench-Pfanner, Regina; Akhter, Nasima; Kraemer, Klaus; Semba, Richard D

    2010-01-01

    Because the global financial crisis and high food prices affect food consumption, we characterized the relationship between stunting and nongrain food expenditure at the household level among children 0-59 mo old in Indonesia's rural and urban poor population. Expenditure and height-for-age data were obtained from a population-based sample of 446,473 children in rural and 143,807 in urban poor areas in Indonesia. Expenditure on food was grouped into categories: animal, plant, total nongrain, and grain. The prevalence of stunting in rural and urban poor areas was 33.8 and 31.2%, respectively. In rural areas, the odds ratios (OR) (5th vs. first quintile) for stunting were similar for proportion of household expenditure on animal (0.87; 95% CI = 0.85-0.90; P global crises.

  14. Price increase

    CERN Multimedia

    2006-01-01

    Please take note that after five years of stable prices at Restaurant No 1 a price increase will come into force on 1st January 2006. This increase has been agreed after discussions between the CSR (Comité de Surveillance des Restaurants) and the catering company Novae and will reflect the inflation rate of the last few years. In addition, a new children's menu will be introduced, as well as 'Max Havelaar' fair-trade coffee at a price of 1.70 CHF.

  15. Price increase

    CERN Multimedia

    2005-01-01

    Please take note that after five years of stable prices at Restaurant No 1 a price increase will come into force on 1st January 2006. This increase has been agreed after discussions between the CSR (Comité de Surveillance des Restaurants) and the catering company Novae and will reflect the inflation rate of the last few years. In addition, a new children's menu will be introduced as well as 'Max Havelaar' fair-trade coffee at a price of 1.70 CHF.

  16. Freemium Pricing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Runge, Julian; Wagner, Stefan; Claussen, Jörg

    Firms commonly run field experiments to improve their freemium pricing schemes. However, they often lack a framework for analysis that goes beyond directly measurable outcomes and focuses on longer term profit. We aim to fill this gap by structuring existing knowledge on freemium pricing...... into a stylized framework. We apply the proposed framework in the analysis of a field experiment that contrasts three variations of a freemium pricing scheme and comprises about 300,000 users of a software application. Our findings indicate that a reduction of free product features increases conversion as well...... as viral activity, but reduces usage – which is in line with the framework’s predictions. Additional back-of-the-envelope profit estimations suggest that managers were overly optimistic about positive externalities from usage and viral activity in their choice of pricing scheme, leading them to give too...

  17. Price expectations and petroleum development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pollio, G.; Marian, W.S.

    1991-01-01

    In the first section of this paper, the authors present a highly stylized model of the world oil market that explicitly incorporates both expectative and financial effects. The model generates the extremely interesting result that actual future price outcomes are inversely related to prevailing price expectations, owing to fluctuation in the level and timing of industry investment expenditure. Given the importance of price expectations, it is surprising that the topic has received such scant attention. The authors therefore present in the second section of selective survey of the various measures that have been proposed and used in the literature, as well as an assessment of the value of potentially new indices and market prices for existing hydrocarbon reserves, for example. In the final section of the paper, we discuss the extent to which financial innovation, in the form of commodity-linked products-such as swaps, caps, collars, and so forth-are transforming the oil market, enabling all market segments to manage price uncertainty far more effectively than was ever possible in the past

  18. Dating breaks for global crude oil prices and their volatility : a possible price band for global crude prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liao, H.C.; Suen, Y.B.

    2006-01-01

    Global oil prices are among the most visible of all historical commodity records. This paper presented and applied the multiple structural change method developed by Baie and Perron (BP) to investigate daily West Texas Intermediate (WTI) spot prices from January 2, 1986 to December 30, 2004 as collected by the United States Department of Energy. In particular, the BP statistical method was used to estimate the number and location of structural breaks in global oil price series and their volatility. The objective was to precisely determine the exact structural break in the global oil market. The breaks for both the price of oil and its volatility were successfully located and dated. It was shown that the break for the structural change in oil prices occurred on November 12, 1999, where the average oil price was U$19.02 per barrel previously, and U$30.90 afterwards. Two breaks for oil price volatility were also found, the first in March 1991 and the other in December 1995. The volatility was measured in 3 regimes by dividing these 2 breaks. It was suggested that since oil prices increased more rapidly during the second half of 2004 and 2005, it is possible that another structural break may be found during this period. However, it wa cautioned that it is difficult to find another significant break until more data becomes available, particularly for periods characterized by a rapid increase in price. 24 refs., 5 tabs., 2 figs

  19. 17 CFR 37.3 - Requirements for underlying commodities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... that are a security futures product, and the registered derivatives transaction execution facility is a... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Requirements for underlying commodities. 37.3 Section 37.3 Commodity and Securities Exchanges COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION...

  20. 17 CFR 14.4 - Violation of Commodity Exchange Act.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Violation of Commodity Exchange Act. 14.4 Section 14.4 Commodity and Securities Exchanges COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION... Exchange Act. The Commission may deny, temporarily or permanently, the privilege of appearing or practicing...

  1. 17 CFR 31.6 - Registration of leverage commodities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... taking delivery to buy or sell the leverage commodity; (2) Explain the effect of such changes upon the... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Registration of leverage... LEVERAGE TRANSACTIONS § 31.6 Registration of leverage commodities. (a) Registration of leverage commodities...

  2. Bad weather for the IPCC: from Nobel price to affairs, rise and fall of climate experts; Sale temps pour le GIEC: Du prix Nobel aux affaires, grandeur et decadence des experts du climat

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dubuis, E.

    2010-07-01

    The intergovernmental panel on climate change, IPCC, or GIEC in French, has become in 20 years one of the most influent organization in the world. Awarded by the Nobel price of peace in 2007, this expression of the United Nations has succeeded in setting the fight against global warming at the top of the international political agenda, in particular during the 2009 Copenhagen meeting. What are the keys of this success? The IPCC has announced a global warming with disastrous effects, where floods would combine with dryness periods, epidemics and other natural disasters. Such a dark picture cannot leave anyone indifferent and allows the IPCC to encourage the humanity to drastically change its consumption habits and limit its way of life. However, to raise such fears and ask for such sacrifices, an organization like the IPCC must be irreproachable. And here is the problem reported in this book: the IPCC has shown its weaknesses, has made mistakes, has used unappropriated methods and miscasting personnel, has been uncapable to explain the complexness of the climate question and has felt reticent about the recognition of its mistakes. Revealed between fall 2009 and winter 2010, these failures have shaken the credibility of the organization to such a point that the UN requested an expertise to judge its own experts. (J.S.)

  3. A two-commodity perishable inventory system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B Sivakumar

    2005-12-01

    Full Text Available We present a two-commodity perishable stochastic inventory system under continuous review at a service facility with a finite waiting room. The maximum storage capacity for the i–th item is fixed as Si (i = 1, 2. We assume that a demand for the i–th commodity is of unit size. The arrival instants of customers to the service station constitutes a Poisson process with parameter lambda. The customer demands for these commodities are assumed to be in the ratio p1:p2. An individual customer is issued a demanded item after a random time of service with a negative exponential distribution. The items are perishable in nature and the life time of items of each commodity is assumed to be exponentially distributed. Both commodities are supposed to be substitutable in the sense that at the instant of any zero-stock, the other item may be used to meet the demand. A joint reordering policy is adopted with a random lead time for orders with exponential distribution. The joint probability distribution of the number of customers in the system and the inventory levels are obtained in both the transient and steady states. We also derive some stationary performance measures. The results are illustrated by means of a numerical example.

  4. United Kingdom: 'competition can force prices up'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Powe, I.

    1992-01-01

    The increased demand for natural gas and price considerations are examined. The recent undertaking of British Gas to place storage and transmission in a separate regulated division with transparent accounts is reported, and the possible rise in the price of gas when British Gas has to pay commercial rates to the separate division is considered. (UK)

  5. Price and Product Pooling: Impact on Development and Operation of Differentiated Value Chains

    OpenAIRE

    Hobbs, Jill E.; Kerr, William A.

    2006-01-01

    Price pooling has long been used as a means to deal with risk in the marketing of agricultural commodities. For commodities, product pooling may also generate potential benefits through economies of scale or the provision of market power. Yet there has also been a growing interest in product differentiation and the development of value chains as a means to increase returns to farmers. This article explores the question of whether price or product pooling is compatible with a strategy of pro-a...

  6. The impacts of global oil price shocks on China's fundamental industries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Xiao; Zhang, Chuanguo

    2014-01-01

    This paper investigated the impacts of oil price shocks on China's fundamental industries. In order to analyze the reactions of different industries to oil price shocks, we focused on four fundamental industries: grains, metals, petrochemicals and oil fats. We separated the oil price shocks into two parts, positive and negative parts, to investigate how commodity markets react when oil prices go up and down. We further studied the extreme price movements, called jumps, existing in the oil markets and how jump behavior has affected China's commodity markets. Our results suggest that asymmetric effects of oil price shocks did exist in the four markets and the negative oil price shocks had stronger influences on the four markets in China. The petrochemicals market suffered most from the oil price shocks, and the grains market was least sensitive to the shocks. When jumps occurred in the crude oil market, the four commodity markets would be affected differently. The oil fats market and petrochemicals market tended to “overreact” to jumps. - Highlights: • We investigate the impacts of oil price shocks on China's fundamental industries. • Jump behavior does exist in the crude oil market. • The impacts of oil price shocks are asymmetric. • China's four commodity markets are affected by the jump behavior

  7. Henry Hub and national balancing point prices: what will be the international gas price reference?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mazighi, A.E.H.

    2005-01-01

    One of the lessons in the history of international trade in commodities is the emergence - sooner or later - of an international price reference, most commonly known as an international marker price. In the area of oil, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) plays the role of a marker for sour crudes traded in the Atlantic basin. Brent oil fulfils this function for sweet crudes traded in Europe. Another important aspect in the area of global commodities is that the emergence of a marker price is not always necessarily related to the relative share of production of exports of the commodity, but primarily to the existence of an organized market for this commodity. Today, while international gas trade is intensifying, we still lack an international price reference for this commodity. This is due to the fact that the international trade of natural gas is still highly regionalized. It is also due to the fact that most gas markets are still regulated. Nevertheless, deregulation efforts have been implemented in both developed (the United States, the United Kingdom, continental Europe, Korea) and developing countries (Brazil, Chile) and have led to new market structures based on more competition in all segments of the gas chain, except transportation. In the meantime, price structures based on supply and demand principles are supposed to have emerged in the US and UK markets in the 1990s as a result of the implementation of deregulation measures. Today, the US gas market, which represents more than 660 billion cubic metres per year of consumption and the UK gas market, which is close to 100 bcm annually, are considered mature enough to make the principles of supply and demand operate inside these markets. In fact, the Henry Hub (HH) price, which is determined at a physical location in Louisiana, US, and the national balancing point (NBP) price, which is determined somewhere inside the national transmission system (NTS), without any precise location, are considered as potential

  8. Marketplace pricing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1991-01-01

    As discussed in this chapter, interest in marketplace pricing has been increasing in recent years, reflecting the societal trend toward substituting competition for regulation where appropriate. Competition is valuable because it encourages utilities to make efficient decisions with a minimum of regulatory intervention. It enhances efficiency through the incentive for innovation by the regulated companies and by increasing the likelihood they will come forward with proposals for better services, lower prices or both. Ultimately, consumers are beneficiaries. Marketplace pricing is emblematic of the view that the degree of regulation should reflect the degree of market power, that workably competitive markets should be allowed to operate with as little regulatory interference as possible. The Edison Electric Institute has made perhaps the most detailed proposal on marketplace pricing. It and others perceive numerous benefits from this method of pricing transmission services. Given the undeniable market power resulting from line ownership, FERC has emphasized the need to find a workably competitive market before approving such proposals. The ability to make this distinction without a full-blown antitrust review for every transaction is questionable, and FERC has yet to provide generic guidance. Finally, FERC's legal ability to depart from cost-based standards is questionable

  9. The Global Economic Crisis and the Africa Rising Narrative

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    growth back on the global agenda, with lowering oil prices and the rising of fracking .... workforce is informalised labour (Bieler et al 2008), while in the rural areas .... community gardens, and socially-owned renewable energy projects, which.

  10. Commodity, pre-salt and development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alvim, Carlos Feu; Fantine, Jose [Univerisdade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ/COPPE), RJ (Brazil). Coordenacao do Programa de Pos-graduacao em Engenharia

    2008-04-15

    'Brazil is essentially an agricultural country' was the economical truism taught in school in the 1950s. The country was under the influence of the coffee cycle that has followed other ones based on extractive or agricultural products in successive cycles since the Colonial period: pau-brasil, sugarcane, gold, cocoa, rubber, etc. Presently commodities dominate our exports and one might ask: is Brazil essentially a commodity-exporting country? The recent publication of the government document 'Productive development policy - innovate and invest to support growth' makes it opportune to discuss the subject. (author)

  11. Radiation processing of food and agricultural commodities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sharma, Arun

    2014-01-01

    Reducing post-harvest food losses is becoming increasingly important for sustaining food supplies. Appropriate post-harvest processing, handling, storage and distribution practices are as important as the efforts to increase productivity for improving food security, food safety and international trade in agricultural commodities. Preservation of food by ionizing radiation involves controlled application of energy of ionizing radiation such as gamma rays, X-rays, and accelerated electrons to agricultural commodities, food products and ingredients, for improving their storage life, hygiene and safety. The process employs either gamma rays emitted by radioisotopes such as cobalt-60 or high-energy electrons or X-rays generated from machine sources

  12. Price formation of the salmon aquaculture futures market

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ankamah-Yeboah, Isaac; Nielsen, Max; Nielsen, Rasmus

    2017-01-01

    This study examines price formation of the internationally traded salmon futures exchange. Analyzing data from 2006 to 2015, the study identifies the co-integration relationship between the spot market price and 1–6-, 9- and 12-month futures contract prices. With exception of the 12-month maturity....... Analysis of the term structure of futures volatilities reveal that the shorter the length of the futures contract, the more volatility there is. This is because salmon prices exhibit short-term cyclical and seasonal patterns like other agricultural commodities. As such, salmon producers will be better off...

  13. Electricity pricing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wijayatunga, P.D.C.

    1994-01-01

    Electricity pricing in most countries, especially in the developing world, has been determined by traditional accounting criteria where it raises revenue requirements to cover the operating costs and a return on past and future capital investments in possible power systems. The use of economic principles to improve the total economic efficiency in the electricity industry is discussed. Basic marginal cost theory, long run marginal costing (LRMC) cost categories and rating periods, marginal capacity costs, marginal energy costs, consumer costs, short run marginal costing (SRMC), marginal cost of fuel, marginal cost of network losses, market clearing price, value of unserved energy and network quality of supply cost are discussed

  14. Rising consumption of meat and milk in developing countries has created a new food revolution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delgado, Christopher L

    2003-11-01

    People in developing countries currently consume on average one-third the meat and one-quarter of the milk products per capita compared to the richer North, but this is changing rapidly. The amount of meat consumed in developing countries over the past has grown three times as much as it did in the developed countries. The Livestock Revolution is primarily driven by demand. Poor people everywhere are eating more animal products as their incomes rise above poverty level and as they become urbanized. By 2020, the share of developing countries in total world meat consumption will expand from 52% currently to 63%. By 2020, developing countries will consume 107 million metric tons (mmt) more meat and 177 mmt more milk than they did in 1996/1998, dwarfing developed-country increases of 19 mmt for meat and 32 mmt for milk. The projected increase in livestock production will require annual feed consumption of cereals to rise by nearly 300 mmt by 2020. Nonetheless, the inflation-adjusted prices of livestock and feed commodities are expected to fall marginally by 2020, compared to precipitous declines in the past 20 y. Structural change in the diets of billions of people is a primal force not easily reversed by governments. The incomes and nutrition of millions of rural poor in developing countries are improving. Yet in many cases these dietary changes also create serious environmental and health problems that require active policy involvement to prevent irreversible consequences.

  15. Information pricing based on trusted system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Zehua; Zhang, Nan; Han, Hongfeng

    2018-05-01

    Personal information has become a valuable commodity in today's society. So our goal aims to develop a price point and a pricing system to be realistic. First of all, we improve the existing BLP system to prevent cascading incidents, design a 7-layer model. Through the cost of encryption in each layer, we develop PI price points. Besides, we use association rules mining algorithms in data mining algorithms to calculate the importance of information in order to optimize informational hierarchies of different attribute types when located within a multi-level trusted system. Finally, we use normal distribution model to predict encryption level distribution for users in different classes and then calculate information prices through a linear programming model with the help of encryption level distribution above.

  16. Price Comovement Between Biodiesel and Natural Gas

    OpenAIRE

    Janda, Karel; Kourilek, Jakub

    2016-01-01

    We study relationship between biodiesel, as a most important biofuel in the EU, relevant feedstock commodities and fossil fuels. Our main interest is to capture relationship between biodiesel and natural gas. They are both used either directly as a fuel or indirectly in form of additives in transport. Therefore, our purpose is to �nd price linkage between biofuel and natural gas to support or reject the claim that they compete as alternative fuels and potential substitutes. The estimated p...

  17. Role of governance in creating a commodity hub: A comparative analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M.P. Haris

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The body of work on natural gas hubs has been expanding rapidly in recent years, with most of the current work examining the creation of gas hubs focusing on either the European experience or the North American experience. In this paper, we adopt a different perspective and place the focus on experience of hub building from other international commodities. We analyse three commodities - crude oil, iron ore and coal, and draw experience on the role of governance in development of hub based prices. In particular, we propose that the role of governance is different at different stages of the pricing transition to market based pricing. Governance could play an important role at the initial stage, building the relevant soft and physical infrastructure which facilitates the reaping of first mover advantage. As the market develops, private sector players may prefer less involvement of governance, which may distort markets. With market stabilization, governance should be focused on maintaining stable rules and regulation for private sector development, as well as monitoring for further changes in global trends. To facilitate the building of a benchmark price, the public sector should adopt a long-term and overarching view on industry growth.

  18. 78 FR 16189 - Transportation of Agricultural Commodities

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-03-14

    ... DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration 49 CFR Parts 382, 383, 390, 391, 395, 396 [Docket No. FMCSA-2012-0378] RIN 2126-AB58 Transportation of Agricultural...: FMCSA promulgates the regulatory exemptions for the ``transportation of agricultural commodities and...

  19. 7 CFR 1405.9 - Commodity assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... Commodity assessments. (a) CCC will deduct from the proceeds of a marketing assistance loan an amount equal... collected in one of the following ways, as requested by the State, but not both: (i) When the proceeds of... the State. (2) CCC will deduct from the proceeds of a marketing assistance loan an amount equal to the...

  20. 2007 commodity flow survey : state summaries

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-12-01

    This report summarizes and highlights freight shipments for each of the 50 States and the District of Columbia based on the final release of CFS data in December 2009. It provides tables for each States value and weight of shipments, major commodity ...

  1. Commodities Trading: An Essential Economic Tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welch, Mary A., Ed.

    1989-01-01

    This issue focuses on commodities trading as an essential economic tool. Activities include critical thinking about marketing decisions and discussion on how futures markets and options are used as important economic tools. Discussion questions and a special student project are included. (EH)

  2. 7 CFR 1401.4 - Commodity certificates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... this section of loan collateral by a person to whom a loan secured by such collateral is made): or... loan collateral—(1) General. Except as otherwise provided in this paragraph and in paragraphs (f) and... commodities pledged as collateral for CCC loans made to such person, at any time on or before the expiration...

  3. 75 FR 65586 - Agricultural Commodity Definition

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-26

    ... juice, wine and beer are ``food'' for purposes of the definition of ``agricultural commodity... beets, beet pulp (used as animal feed), raw sugar, molasses and refined sugar; honey; beer and wine... proposed herein. \\44\\ 44 U.S.C. 3501 et seq. B. Cost Benefit Analysis Section 15(a) of the CEA requires the...

  4. Towards microalgal triglycerides in the commodity markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Benvenuti, Giulia; Ruiz, Jesús; Lamers, Packo P.; Bosma, Rouke; Wijffels, René H.; Barbosa, Maria J.

    2017-01-01

    Background: Microalgal triglycerides (TAGs) hold great promise as sustainable feedstock for commodity industries. However, to determine research priorities and support business decisions, solid techno-economic studies are essential. Here, we present a techno-economic analysis of two-step TAG

  5. Natural gas pricing policies in Southeast Asia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pacudan, R.B.

    1998-01-01

    The very dynamic economies of Southeast Asia have recently been experiencing a rapid increase in energy demand. Parallel to this development, there has been an increase in the utilization of indigenous natural gas resources. This article reviews gas-pricing policies in the region, which partly explain the rise in gas utilization. Although diverse, energy pricing policies in Southeast Asia address the common objective of enhancing domestic gas production and utilization. The article concludes that a more rational gas-pricing policy framework is emerging in the region. In global terms, gas pricing in the region tends to converge in a market-related framework, despite the many different pricing objectives of individual countries, and the predominance of non-economic pricing objectives in certain countries (especially gas-rich nations). Specifically, governments have been flexible enough to follow global trends and initiate changes in contractual agreements (pricing and profit-sharing), giving oil companies more favourable terms, and encouraging continued private investment in gas development. At the same time, promotional pricing has also been used to increase utilization of gas, through set prices and adjusted taxes achieving a lower price level compared to substitute fuels. For an efficient gas-pricing mechanism, refinements in the pricing framework should be undertaken, as demand for gas approaches existing and/or forecast production capacities. (author)

  6. Clearwood quality and softwood lumber prices: what's the real premium?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas R. Waggener; Roger D. Fight

    1999-01-01

    Diminishing quantities of appearance grade lumber and rising price premiums for it have accompanied the transition from old-growth to young-growth timber. The price premiums for better grades are an incentive for producers to undertake investments to increase the yield of those higher valued products. Price premiums, however, are also an incentive for users to...

  7. Trends in College Pricing, 2013. Trends in Higher Education Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baum, Sandy; Ma, Jennifer

    2013-01-01

    Concerns about rising tuition and how students can afford to finance their major investments in postsecondary education are widespread. Solid insights into these questions require accurate and up-to-date information about prices. "Trends in College Pricing, 2013" reports on the prices charged by colleges and universities in 2013-14, how…

  8. Cigarette price minimization strategies in the United States: price reductions and responsiveness to excise taxes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pesko, Michael F; Licht, Andrea S; Kruger, Judy M

    2013-11-01

    Because cigarette price minimization strategies can provide substantial price reductions for individuals continuing their usual smoking behaviors following federal and state cigarette excise tax increases, we examined independent price reductions compensating for overlapping strategies. The possible availability of larger independent price reduction opportunities in states with higher cigarette excise taxes is explored. Regression analysis used the 2006-2007 Tobacco Use Supplement of the Current Population Survey (N = 26,826) to explore national and state-level independent price reductions that smokers obtained from purchasing cigarettes (a) by the carton, (b) in a state with a lower average after-tax cigarette price than in the state of residence, and (c) in "some other way," including online or in another country. Price reductions from these strategies are estimated jointly to compensate for known overlapping strategies. Each strategy reduced the price of cigarettes by 64-94 cents per pack. These price reductions are 9%-22% lower than conventionally estimated results not compensating for overlapping strategies. Price reductions vary substantially by state. Following cigarette excise tax increases, the price reduction available from purchasing cigarettes by cartons increased. Additionally, the price reduction from purchasing cigarettes in a state with a lower average after-tax cigarette price is positively associated with state cigarette excise tax rates and border state cigarette excise tax rate differentials. Findings from this large, nationally representative study of cigarette smokers suggest that price reductions are larger in states with higher cigarette excise taxes, and increase as cigarette excise taxes rise.

  9. The Efficiency of the Chinese Commodity Futures Markets: Development and Empirical Evidence

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yu Xin; Gongmeng Chen; Michael Firth

    2006-01-01

    This study investigates the efficiency of the Chinese metal futures (i.e. copper and aluminum) traded on China's Shanghai Futures Exchange. First, we thoroughly analyze the development of China's commodity futures markets, which provides a fundamental background. Then we examine the random walk and unbiasedness hypotheses for two metal futures during 1999-2004. Based on the empirical evidence, we argue that China's copper and aluminum futures markets are efficient, and that they aid the process of price discovery because futures prices can be considered as unbiased predictors of future spot prices. We attribute this efficiency to the regulatory changes made in 1999 and the increased financial skills and acumen of the participants in the market.

  10. Trade in water and commodities as adaptations to global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lammers, R. B.; Hertel, T. W.; Prousevitch, A.; Baldos, U. L. C.; Frolking, S. E.; Liu, J.; Grogan, D. S.

    2015-12-01

    The human capacity for altering the water cycle has been well documented and given the expected change due to population, income growth, biofuels, climate, and associated land use change, there remains great uncertainty in both the degree of increased pressure on land and water resources and in our ability to adapt to these changes. Alleviating regional shortages in water supply can be carried out in a spatial hierarchy through i) direct trade of water between all regions, ii) development of infrastructure to improve water availability within regions (e.g. impounding rivers), iii) via inter-basin hydrological transfer between neighboring regions and, iv) via virtual water trade. These adaptation strategies can be managed via market trade in water and commodities to identify those strategies most likely to be adopted. This work combines the physically-based University of New Hampshire Water Balance Model (WBM) with the macro-scale Purdue University Simplified International Model of agricultural Prices Land use and the Environment (SIMPLE) to explore the interaction of supply and demand for fresh water globally. In this work we use a newly developed grid cell-based version of SIMPLE to achieve a more direct connection between the two modeling paradigms of physically-based models with optimization-driven approaches characteristic of economic models. We explore questions related to the global and regional impact of water scarcity and water surplus on the ability of regions to adapt to future change. Allowing for a variety of adaptation strategies such as direct trade of water and expanding the built water infrastructure, as well as indirect trade in commodities, will reduce overall global water stress and, in some regions, significantly reduce their vulnerability to these future changes.

  11. Record prices [crude oil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon

    2006-01-01

    Crude oil prices climbed to new record levels on fears of a future loss of supplies from Iran as Washington stepped up its efforts to persuade Tehran to abandon its programme to produce nuclear fuel. IPE's December Brent contract set a new record for the exchange by trading at $75.80/bbl on 21st April. On the same day October WTI reached an all-time high of $77.30/bbl on Nymex. US product prices gained as refiners struggled to produce sufficient middle distillate. Alarmed by the rising retail price of gasoline, the US Senate debated a reduction in the already low US tax rate on motor spirit. The House of Representatives passed a measure to prohibit overcharging for petrol, diesel and heating oil, but Democrats rejected a Republican proposal to speed-up the process for approving new refineries. President George W Bush announced a temporary easing of new gasoline and diesel specifications (see 'Focus', March 2006) to allow more fuel to be produced. He also agreed to delay the repayment of some 2.1 mn bbl of crude oil lent to companies after last year's hurricanes from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. California announced an inquiry into alleged overcharging for fuel by oil companies operating in the state. (author)

  12. The Principles and the Specifics of Trading in Commodities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baran, Dušan; Herbacsková, Anita

    2012-12-01

    In the present period of instability on financial markets, investments in commodities are the solution for elimination of the consequences of inflation and ensure the yield. When investing in commodities, the use of specifics of commodities compared to other assets. The distribution of commodities we can interpret for agricultural commodities, commodities of energy, precious and other metals, and weather. Therefore, in the framework of the investment portfolio are the commodities. This is the reason why one of the most popular types of investment assets now become commodities. In the interpretation of particular commodities we talk about commodity futures. The reason is that the spot market with commodities is limited storage facilities. The growth of the popularity, which allows a wide range of commodities, has caused that in addition to from institutional investors and speculators for trade may involve even small investors. This development will be supplemented by interpretation of the charts and figers, which will be commented and used for generalization of knowledge. Finally, the article will be interpreted by the further development of the market for commodities as it by article assumes from the results of research.

  13. A hybrid model for electricity spot prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anderson, C.L.D.

    2004-01-01

    Electricity prices were highly regulated prior to the deregulation of the electric power industry. Prices were predictable, allowing generators and wholesalers to calculate their production costs and revenues. With deregulation, electricity has become the most volatile of all commodities. Electricity must be consumed as soon as it is generated due to the inability to store it in any sufficient quantity. Economic uncertainty exists because the supply of electricity cannot shift as quickly as the demand, which is highly variable. When demand increases quickly, the price must respond. Therefore, price spikes occur that are orders of magnitude higher than the base electricity price. This paper presents a robust and realistic model for spot market electricity prices used to manage risk in volatile markets. The model is a hybrid of a top down data driven method commonly used for financial applications, and a bottom up system driven method commonly used in regulated electricity markets. The advantage of the model is that it incorporates primary system drivers and demonstrates their effects on final prices. The 4 primary modules of the model are: (1) a model for forced outages, (2) a model for maintenance outages, (3) an electrical load model, and (4) a price model which combines the results of the previous 3 models. The performance of each model was tested. The forced outage model is the first of its kind to simulate the system on an aggregate basis using Weibull distributions. The overall spot price model was calibrated to, and tested with, data from the electricity market in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Maryland. The model performed well in simulated market prices and adapted readily to changing system conditions and new electricity markets. This study examined the pricing of derivative contracts on electrical power. It also compared a range of portfolio scenarios using a Cash Flow at Risk approach

  14. A hybrid model for electricity spot prices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderson, C.L.D.

    2004-07-01

    Electricity prices were highly regulated prior to the deregulation of the electric power industry. Prices were predictable, allowing generators and wholesalers to calculate their production costs and revenues. With deregulation, electricity has become the most volatile of all commodities. Electricity must be consumed as soon as it is generated due to the inability to store it in any sufficient quantity. Economic uncertainty exists because the supply of electricity cannot shift as quickly as the demand, which is highly variable. When demand increases quickly, the price must respond. Therefore, price spikes occur that are orders of magnitude higher than the base electricity price. This paper presents a robust and realistic model for spot market electricity prices used to manage risk in volatile markets. The model is a hybrid of a top down data driven method commonly used for financial applications, and a bottom up system driven method commonly used in regulated electricity markets. The advantage of the model is that it incorporates primary system drivers and demonstrates their effects on final prices. The 4 primary modules of the model are: (1) a model for forced outages, (2) a model for maintenance outages, (3) an electrical load model, and (4) a price model which combines the results of the previous 3 models. The performance of each model was tested. The forced outage model is the first of its kind to simulate the system on an aggregate basis using Weibull distributions. The overall spot price model was calibrated to, and tested with, data from the electricity market in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Maryland. The model performed well in simulated market prices and adapted readily to changing system conditions and new electricity markets. This study examined the pricing of derivative contracts on electrical power. It also compared a range of portfolio scenarios using a Cash Flow at Risk approach.

  15. Modeling the relationship between the oil price and global food prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Sheng-Tung; Kuo, Hsiao-I; Chen, Chi-Chung

    2010-01-01

    The growth of corn-based ethanol production and soybean-based bio-diesel production following the increase in the oil prices have significantly affect the world agricultural grain productions and its prices. The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationships between the crude oil price and the global grain prices for corn, soybean, and wheat. The empirical results show that the change in each grain price is significantly influenced by the changes in the crude oil price and other grain prices during the period extending from the 3rd week in 2005 to the 20th week in 2008 which implies that grain commodities are competing with the derived demand for bio-fuels by using soybean or corn to produce ethanol or bio-diesel during the period of higher crude oil prices in these recent years. The subsidy policies in relation to the bio-fuel industries in some nations engaging in bio-fuel production should be considered to avoid the consequences resulting from high oil prices. (author)

  16. Price changes in the gasoline market: Are Midwestern gasoline prices downward sticky?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1999-03-01

    This report examines a recurring question about gasoline markets: why, especially in times of high price volatility, do retail gasoline prices seem to rise quickly but fall back more slowly? Do gasoline prices actually rise faster than they fall, or does this just appear to be the case because people tend to pay more attention to prices when they're rising? This question is more complex than it might appear to be initially, and it has been addressed by numerous analysts in government, academia and industry. The question is very important, because perceived problems with retail gasoline pricing have been used in arguments for government regulation of prices. The phenomenon of prices at different market levels tending to move differently relative to each other depending on direction is known as price asymmetry. This report summarizes the previous work on gasoline price asymmetry and provides a method for testing for asymmetry in a wide variety of situations. The major finding of this paper is that there is some amount of asymmetry and pattern asymmetry, especially at the retail level, in the Midwestern states that are the focus of the analysis. Nevertheless, both the amount asymmetry and pattern asymmetry are relatively small. In addition, much of the pattern asymmetry detected in this and previous studies could be a statistical artifact caused by the time lags between price changes at different points in the gasoline distribution system. In other words, retail gasoline prices do sometimes rise faster than they fall, but this is largely a lagged market response to an upward shock in the underlying wholesale gasoline or crude oil prices, followed by a return toward the previous baseline. After consistent time lags are factored out, most apparent asymmetry disappears

  17. Cross-correlations between RMB exchange rate and international commodity markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Xinsheng; Li, Jianfeng; Zhou, Ying; Qian, Yubo

    2017-11-01

    This paper employs multifractal detrended analysis (MF-DFA) and multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis (MF-DCCA) to study cross-correlation behaviors between China's RMB exchange rate market and four international commodity markets, using a comprehensive set of data covering the period from 22 July 2005 to 15 March 2016. Our empirical results from MF-DFA indicate that the RMB exchange rate is the most inefficient among the 4 selected markets. The results from quantitative analysis have testified the existence of cross-correlations and the result from MF-DCCA have further confirmed a strong multifractal behavior between RMB exchange rate and international commodity markets. We also demonstrate that the recent financial crisis has significant impact on the cross-correlated behavior. Through the rolling window analysis, we find that the RMB exchange rates and international commodity prices are anti-persistent cross-correlated. The main sources of multifractality in the cross-correlations are long-range correlations between RMB exchange rate and the aggregate commodity, energy and metals index.

  18. Crude oil prices: Speculation versus fundamentals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolodziej, Marek Krzysztof

    Beginning in 2004, the price of crude oil fluctuates rapidly over a wide range. Large and rapid price increases have recessionary consequences and dampen long-term infrastructural investment. I investigate whether price changes are driven by market fundamentals or speculation. With regard to market fundamentals, I revisit econometric evidence for the importance of demand shocks, as proxied by dry maritime cargo rates, on oil prices. When I eliminate transportation costs from both sides of the equation, disaggregate OPEC and non-OPEC production, and allow for more than one cointegrating relation, I find that previous specifications are inconsistent with arguments that demand shocks play an important role. Instead, results confirm the importance of OPEC supply shocks. I investigate two channels by which speculation may affect oil prices; the direct effect of trader behavior and changes in oil from a commodity to a financial asset. With regard to trader behavior, I find evidence that trader positions are required to explain the spread between spot and futures prices of crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The inclusion of trader positions clarifies the process of equilibrium error correction, such that there is bidirectional causality between prices and trader positions. This creates the possibility of speculative bubbles. With regard to oil as a commodity and/or financial asset, I use a Kalman Filter model to estimate the time-varying partial correlation between returns to investments in equity and oil markets. This correlation changes from negative to positive at the onset of the 2008 financial crisis. The low interest rates used to rescue the economy depress convenience yields, which reduces the benefits of holding oil as a commodity. Instead, oil becomes a financial asset (on net) as the oil market changed from contango to backwardation. Contradicting simple political narratives, my research suggests that both market fundamentals and speculation drive

  19. Energy prices, equalization and federalism

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Courchene, T.J. [Queen' s Univ., Kingston, ON (Canada). School of Policy Studies

    2005-10-01

    A rise in oil prices over the last 30 years has shaped the debate on the equalization formula as well as the nature of fiscal federalism. The oil shocks of 1973 and 1979 contributed to the creation of the National Energy Program (NEP) in 1980 and the Energy Pricing and Taxation Agreement (EPTA) between Ottawa and Alberta in 1981. The current surge in oil prices, to recent highs of $70 a barrel has resulted in a new debate on energy pricing, equalization and fiscal frameworks. This article presented a review of the history of oil and federalism, and proposed a remedy to the horizontal fiscal imbalance by allocating the fixed equalization pool in accordance with fiscal capacity disparities relating to non-resource revenues. An interprovincial revenue-sharing pool was suggested for resource revenues, agreed to and operated by the provinces. It was suggested that after the price spike in 1973 in which the price of oil tripled, a key part of the rationale for imposing export taxes on oil equal to the difference between domestic and world prices was that the federal government could subsidize oil imports into eastern Canada and maintain a uniform domestic price across the country. By continuing to subsidize imports and maintaining a domestic price below the world price, the government has been diverting potential energy revenues from energy-rich provinces and transferring them directly to Canadians in terms of subsidized energy prices. It was noted that energy price surges cannot send equalization payments soaring as they did before because of the 2004 Framework Agreement, in which the overall equalization will be increased to $10.9 billion. A 2-tier approach to equalization was presented, in which it was suggested that the $10.9 billion pool should be allocated with fiscal capacity disparities relating to non-resource revenues. The creation of a revenue sharing pool for resource revenues was recommended. It was suggested that the 2 approaches will result in a strategic

  20. Energy prices, equalization and federalism

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Courchene, T.J.

    2005-01-01

    A rise in oil prices over the last 30 years has shaped the debate on the equalization formula as well as the nature of fiscal federalism. The oil shocks of 1973 and 1979 contributed to the creation of the National Energy Program (NEP) in 1980 and the Energy Pricing and Taxation Agreement (EPTA) between Ottawa and Alberta in 1981. The current surge in oil prices, to recent highs of $70 a barrel has resulted in a new debate on energy pricing, equalization and fiscal frameworks. This article presented a review of the history of oil and federalism, and proposed a remedy to the horizontal fiscal imbalance by allocating the fixed equalization pool in accordance with fiscal capacity disparities relating to non-resource revenues. An interprovincial revenue-sharing pool was suggested for resource revenues, agreed to and operated by the provinces. It was suggested that after the price spike in 1973 in which the price of oil tripled, a key part of the rationale for imposing export taxes on oil equal to the difference between domestic and world prices was that the federal government could subsidize oil imports into eastern Canada and maintain a uniform domestic price across the country. By continuing to subsidize imports and maintaining a domestic price below the world price, the government has been diverting potential energy revenues from energy-rich provinces and transferring them directly to Canadians in terms of subsidized energy prices. It was noted that energy price surges cannot send equalization payments soaring as they did before because of the 2004 Framework Agreement, in which the overall equalization will be increased to $10.9 billion. A 2-tier approach to equalization was presented, in which it was suggested that the $10.9 billion pool should be allocated with fiscal capacity disparities relating to non-resource revenues. The creation of a revenue sharing pool for resource revenues was recommended. It was suggested that the 2 approaches will result in a strategic

  1. 15 CFR 740.18 - Agricultural commodities (AGR).

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... commodity meets the definition of “agricultural commodities” in part 772 of the EAR; (2) The commodity is... international terrorism or the transaction raises nonproliferation concerns, you may not use License Exception...

  2. Modelling the impact of oil prices on Vietnam's stock prices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Narayan, Paresh Kumar [School of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Deakin University, Victoria 3125 (Australia); Narayan, Seema [School of Economics, Finance and Marketing, Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology University, Melbourne (Australia)

    2010-01-15

    The goal of this paper is to model the impact of oil prices on Vietnam's stock prices. We use daily data for the period 2000-2008 and include the nominal exchange rate as an additional determinant of stock prices. We find that stock prices, oil prices and nominal exchange rates are cointegrated, and oil prices have a positive and statistically significant impact on stock prices. This result is inconsistent with theoretical expectations. The growth of the Vietnamese stock market was accompanied by rising oil prices. However, the boom of the stock market was marked by increasing foreign portfolio investment inflows which are estimated to have doubled from US$0.9 billion in 2005 to US$1.9 billion in 2006. There was also a change in preferences from holding foreign currencies and domestic bank deposits to stocks local market participants, and there was a rise in leveraged investment in stock as well as investments on behalf of relatives living abroad. It seems that the impact of these internal and domestic factors were more dominant than the oil price rise on the Vietnamese stock market. (author)

  3. The response of the Beijing carbon emissions allowance price (BJC) to macroeconomic and energy price indices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zeng, Shihong; Nan, Xin; Liu, Chao; Chen, Jiuying

    2017-01-01

    In 2013, China opened pilot carbon emission trading markets in seven provinces, where carbon emission allowances have now been traded for more than two years. In this paper, we employ a structural VAR model and the price of the Beijing carbon emission allowance to study the dynamic relationships among the price of the carbon emission allowance, economic development and the price of energy. This paper's data cover the period from April 2, 2014 to November 6, 2015. This paper provides information that will be helpful to both investors and governmental policy makers. The results show that (1) an increase of one standard deviation in the coal price leads to an initial increase of approximately 0.1% in the Beijing carbon price. After 2 days, there is a decrease of less than 0.1%, and the price gradually increases by approximately 0.1% after 30 days; (2) the price of the Beijing carbon emission allowance is mainly affected by its own historical price; (3) the Beijing carbon emission allowance price, crude oil price, natural gas price and economic development have positive – albeit non-significant – correlations. - Highlights: • This paper examines the response of the Beijing carbon emission allowance price. • A rise in coal prices will have different effects in different lag stages. • There are positive correlations between the BJC and economic development.

  4. Economic analysis of coal price-electricity price adjustment in China based on the CGE model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    He, Y.X.; Zhang, S.L.; Yang, L.Y.; Wang, Y.J.; Wang, J.

    2010-01-01

    In recent years, coal price has risen rapidly, which has also brought a sharp increase in the expenditures of thermal power plants in China. Meantime, the power production price and power retail price have not been adjusted accordingly and a large number of thermal power plants have incurred losses. The power industry is a key industry in the national economy. As such, a thorough analysis and evaluation of the economic influence of the electricity price should be conducted before electricity price adjustment is carried out. This paper analyses the influence of coal price adjustment on the electric power industry, and the influence of electricity price adjustment on the macroeconomy in China based on computable general equilibrium models. The conclusions are as follows: (1) a coal price increase causes a rise in the cost of the electric power industry, but the influence gradually descends with increase in coal price; and (2) an electricity price increase has an adverse influence on the total output, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Electricity price increases have a contractionary effect on economic development and, consequently, electricity price policy making must consequently consider all factors to minimize their adverse influence.

  5. The Commodity Form of Safety Information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rodrigo Finkelstein

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The production of safety information is deemed a vital resource to protect human lives at the work site. The injury rate, lost days, incapacity rate, and fatality rate, are key indicators to prop up labour risk awareness and identify job hazards. However, safety information gets highly distorted because it does not only measure risk but serves as a means of exchange. It determines the amount of money to be swapped between Workers’ Compensation Boards and their client corporations. Moreover, as a depository of exchange value, safety information tends to exert pressure over social reality rather than just being a passive reflection of it. This paper discloses the commodity form of safety information. Based on a political economy of information framework, it identifies, describes, and analyses the safety information commodity in its active role of organizing safety and labour health.

  6. Intertemporal speculation, shortages and the political economy of price reform

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Wijnbergen, S.J.G.

    1992-01-01

    Price controls often focus on commodities that are storable and can thus be used in intertemporal speculation. Second, opposition to dismantling of controls is often based on claims of low supply response, and greatly bolstered if a strong supply response fails to materialise. This is especially

  7. Interdependencies in the energy-bioenergy-food price systems: A cointegration analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ciaian, Pavel; Kancs, d'Artis

    2011-01-01

    The present paper studies the interdependencies between the energy, bioenergy and food prices. We develop a vertically integrated multi-input, multi-output market model with two channels of price transmission: a direct biofuel channel and an indirect input channel. We test the theoretical hypothesis by applying time-series analytical mechanisms to nine major traded agricultural commodity prices, including corn, wheat, rice, sugar, soybeans, cotton, banana, sorghum and tea, along with one weighted average world crude oil price. The data consists of 783 weekly observations extending from January 1994 to December 2008. The empirical findings confirm the theoretical hypothesis that the prices for crude oil and agricultural commodities are interdependent including also commodities not directly used in bioenergy production: an increase in oil price by 1 $/barrel increases the agricultural commodity prices between 0.10 $/tonne and 1.80 $/tonne. Contrary to the theoretical predictions, the indirect input channel of price transmission is found to be small and statistically insignificant. (author)

  8. The transmission and management of price volatility in food supply chains

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Assefa, Tsion Taye

    2016-01-01

    The 2006-2011 period has been marked by increased volatility in food an agricultural commodity prices at a global level. In the EU, the continuous liberalization of agricultural markets under the Common Agricultural Policy has led to the exposure of EU agricultural to increasing market price

  9. Legal-Economic Barriers To Price Transfers in Food Supply Chains

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bremmers, H.J.; Meulen, van der B.M.J.; Sredojevic, Z.; Wijnands, J.H.M.

    2012-01-01

    Recent price movements have put food supply chains under pressure. On the one side, upward price tendencies on commodity markets result in higher costs to processing firms. On the other side, these firms are confronted with a strong retail sector that is able to prevent compensation to protect

  10. 17 CFR 229.1204 - (Item 1204) Oil and gas production, production prices and production costs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... production, production prices and production costs. 229.1204 Section 229.1204 Commodity and Securities... production, production prices and production costs. (a) For each of the last three fiscal years disclose... production cost, not including ad valorem and severance taxes, per unit of production. Instruction 1 to Item...

  11. Palm Oil Price, Exchange Rate, and Stock Market: A Wavelet Analysis on the Malaysian Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Buerhan Saiti

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The study investigates causality between palm oil price, exchange rate and the Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI based on the theory of wavelets on the basis of monthly data from the period January 1990 - December 2012. This methodology enables us to identify that the causality between these economic variables at different time intervals. This wavelet decomposition also provides additional evidence to the “reverse causality” theory. We found that the wavelet cross-correlations between stock price and exchange rate skewed to the right at all levels with negative significant correlations which implies that the exchange rate leads the stock price. In the case of stock and commodity prices, there is no significant wavelet-crosscorrelation at first four levels. However, the wavelet cross-correlations skewed to the left at level 5 which implies that the stock price leads commodity price in the long-run. Finally, there is no significant wavelet cross-correlations at all levels as long as we concern between commodity price and exchange rate. It implies that there is no lead-lag relationship between commodity price and exchange rate.

  12. A dual theory of price and value in a meso-scale economic model with stochastic profit rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenblatt, R. E.

    2014-12-01

    The problem of commodity price determination in a market-based, capitalist economy has a long and contentious history. Neoclassical microeconomic theories are based typically on marginal utility assumptions, while classical macroeconomic theories tend to be value-based. In the current work, I study a simplified meso-scale model of a commodity capitalist economy. The production/exchange model is represented by a network whose nodes are firms, workers, capitalists, and markets, and whose directed edges represent physical or monetary flows. A pair of multivariate linear equations with stochastic input parameters represent physical (supply/demand) and monetary (income/expense) balance. The input parameters yield a non-degenerate profit rate distribution across firms. Labor time and price are found to be eigenvector solutions to the respective balance equations. A simple relation is derived relating the expected value of commodity price to commodity labor content. Results of Monte Carlo simulations are consistent with the stochastic price/labor content relation.

  13. Financialization, Crisis and Commodity Correlation Dynamics

    OpenAIRE

    Annastiina Silvennoinen; Susan Thorp

    2010-01-01

    We study bi-variate conditional volatility and correlation dynamics for individual commodity futures and financial assets from May 1990-July 2009 using DSTCC-GARCH (Silvennoinen and Terasvirta 2009). These models allow correlation to vary smoothly between extreme states via transition functions driven by indicators of market conditions. Expected stock volatility and money manager open interest in futures markets are relevant transition variables. Results point to increasing integration betwee...

  14. Hedging Cash Flows from Commodity Processing

    OpenAIRE

    Dahlgran, Roger A.

    2005-01-01

    Agribusinesses make long-term plant-investment decisions based on discounted cash flow. It is therefore incongruous for an agribusiness firm to use cash flow as a plant-investment criterion and then to completely discard cash flow in favor of batch profits as an operating objective. This paper assumes that cash flow and its stability is important to commodity processors and examines methods for hedging cash flows under continuous processing. Its objectives are (a) to determine how standard he...

  15. LNG: a commodity in the making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chabrelie, M.F

    2006-07-01

    Although still far from being a commodity, LNG is undoubtedly emerging as an essential vector for world gas expansion. The flexibility it procures in terms of supply is of prime importance for future market equilibrium. Despite a number of uncertainties and constraints liable to thwart the realisation of the most optimistic growth prospects, the LNG trade remains wedded to rapid growth of about 7%/year by 2020, boosting its share of world gas trade to some 38% by that horizon. (author)

  16. LNG: a commodity in the making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chabrelie, M.F.

    2006-01-01

    Although still far from being a commodity, LNG is undoubtedly emerging as an essential vector for world gas expansion. The flexibility it procures in terms of supply is of prime importance for future market equilibrium. Despite a number of uncertainties and constraints liable to thwart the realisation of the most optimistic growth prospects, the LNG trade remains wedded to rapid growth of about 7%/year by 2020, boosting its share of world gas trade to some 38% by that horizon. (author)

  17. LNG: a commodity in the making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chabrelie, M.F.

    2006-01-01

    Although still far being a commodity, LNG is undoubtedly emerging as an essential vector for world gas expansion. The flexibility it procures in terms of supply is of prime importance for future market equilibrium. Despite a number of uncertainties and constraints liable to thwart the realization of the most optimistic growth prospects, the LNG trade remains wedded to rapid growth of about 7% year by 2020, boosting its share of world gas trade to some 38% by that horizon. (author)

  18. Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision: Logistics, Commodities, and Waste Management Requirements for Scale-Up of Services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edgil, Dianna; Stankard, Petra; Forsythe, Steven; Rech, Dino; Chrouser, Kristin; Adamu, Tigistu; Sakallah, Sameer; Thomas, Anne Goldzier; Albertini, Jennifer; Stanton, David; Dickson, Kim Eva; Njeuhmeli, Emmanuel

    2011-01-01

    Background The global HIV prevention community is implementing voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) programs across eastern and southern Africa, with a goal of reaching 80% coverage in adult males by 2015. Successful implementation will depend on the accessibility of commodities essential for VMMC programming and the appropriate allocation of resources to support the VMMC supply chain. For this, the United States President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, in collaboration with the World Health Organization and the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS, has developed a standard list of commodities for VMMC programs. Methods and Findings This list of commodities was used to inform program planning for a 1-y program to circumcise 152,000 adult men in Swaziland. During this process, additional key commodities were identified, expanding the standard list to include commodities for waste management, HIV counseling and testing, and the treatment of sexually transmitted infections. The approximate costs for the procurement of commodities, management of a supply chain, and waste disposal, were determined for the VMMC program in Swaziland using current market prices of goods and services. Previous costing studies of VMMC programs did not capture supply chain costs, nor the full range of commodities needed for VMMC program implementation or waste management. Our calculations indicate that depending upon the volume of services provided, supply chain and waste management, including commodities and associated labor, contribute between US$58.92 and US$73.57 to the cost of performing one adult male circumcision in Swaziland. Conclusions Experience with the VMMC program in Swaziland indicates that supply chain and waste management add approximately US$60 per circumcision, nearly doubling the total per procedure cost estimated previously; these additional costs are used to inform the estimate of per procedure costs modeled by Njeuhmeli et al. in “Voluntary Medical

  19. Voluntary medical male circumcision: logistics, commodities, and waste management requirements for scale-up of services.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dianna Edgil

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The global HIV prevention community is implementing voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC programs across eastern and southern Africa, with a goal of reaching 80% coverage in adult males by 2015. Successful implementation will depend on the accessibility of commodities essential for VMMC programming and the appropriate allocation of resources to support the VMMC supply chain. For this, the United States President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, in collaboration with the World Health Organization and the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS, has developed a standard list of commodities for VMMC programs. METHODS AND FINDINGS: This list of commodities was used to inform program planning for a 1-y program to circumcise 152,000 adult men in Swaziland. During this process, additional key commodities were identified, expanding the standard list to include commodities for waste management, HIV counseling and testing, and the treatment of sexually transmitted infections. The approximate costs for the procurement of commodities, management of a supply chain, and waste disposal, were determined for the VMMC program in Swaziland using current market prices of goods and services. Previous costing studies of VMMC programs did not capture supply chain costs, nor the full range of commodities needed for VMMC program implementation or waste management. Our calculations indicate that depending upon the volume of services provided, supply chain and waste management, including commodities and associated labor, contribute between US$58.92 and US$73.57 to the cost of performing one adult male circumcision in Swaziland. CONCLUSIONS: Experience with the VMMC program in Swaziland indicates that supply chain and waste management add approximately US$60 per circumcision, nearly doubling the total per procedure cost estimated previously; these additional costs are used to inform the estimate of per procedure costs modeled by Njeuhmeli et al. in

  20. Voluntary medical male circumcision: logistics, commodities, and waste management requirements for scale-up of services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edgil, Dianna; Stankard, Petra; Forsythe, Steven; Rech, Dino; Chrouser, Kristin; Adamu, Tigistu; Sakallah, Sameer; Thomas, Anne Goldzier; Albertini, Jennifer; Stanton, David; Dickson, Kim Eva; Njeuhmeli, Emmanuel

    2011-11-01

    The global HIV prevention community is implementing voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) programs across eastern and southern Africa, with a goal of reaching 80% coverage in adult males by 2015. Successful implementation will depend on the accessibility of commodities essential for VMMC programming and the appropriate allocation of resources to support the VMMC supply chain. For this, the United States President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, in collaboration with the World Health Organization and the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS, has developed a standard list of commodities for VMMC programs. This list of commodities was used to inform program planning for a 1-y program to circumcise 152,000 adult men in Swaziland. During this process, additional key commodities were identified, expanding the standard list to include commodities for waste management, HIV counseling and testing, and the treatment of sexually transmitted infections. The approximate costs for the procurement of commodities, management of a supply chain, and waste disposal, were determined for the VMMC program in Swaziland using current market prices of goods and services. Previous costing studies of VMMC programs did not capture supply chain costs, nor the full range of commodities needed for VMMC program implementation or waste management. Our calculations indicate that depending upon the volume of services provided, supply chain and waste management, including commodities and associated labor, contribute between US$58.92 and US$73.57 to the cost of performing one adult male circumcision in Swaziland. Experience with the VMMC program in Swaziland indicates that supply chain and waste management add approximately US$60 per circumcision, nearly doubling the total per procedure cost estimated previously; these additional costs are used to inform the estimate of per procedure costs modeled by Njeuhmeli et al. in "Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision: Modeling the Impact and Cost of

  1. Australian Coal Company Risk Factors: Coal and Oil Prices

    OpenAIRE

    M. Zahid Hasan; Ronald A. Ratti

    2014-01-01

    Examination of panel data on listed coal companies on the Australian exchange over January 1999 to February 2010 suggests that market return, interest rate premium, foreign exchange rate risk, and coal price returns are statistically significant in determining the excess return on coal companies’ stock. Coal price return and oil price return increases have statistically significant positive effects on coal company stock returns. A one per cent rise in coal price raises coal company returns ...

  2. Recent trends in gas pricing in economies in transition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cornot-Gandolplhe, S.

    1996-01-01

    This paper deals with end-user gas price movements in economies in transition since 1990 and with present problems associated with rising of gas prices levels. The first part stresses the major discrepancies existing between countries in transition with regard to their economic situation and their gas market. Historical gas price movements are shown in the second part, which analyzes the main trends observed in economies in transition and problems encountered when raising the gas prices

  3. Incorporating agroforestry approaches into commodity value chains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millard, Edward

    2011-08-01

    The productivity of tropical agricultural commodities is affected by the health of the ecosystem. Shade tolerant crops such as coffee and cocoa benefit from environmental services provided by forested landscapes, enabling landscape design that meets biodiversity conservation and economic needs. What can motivate farmers to apply and maintain such landscape approaches? Rather than rely on a proliferation of externally funded projects new opportunities are emerging through the international market that buys these commodities. As part of their growing commitment to sustainable supply chains, major companies are supporting agroforestry approaches and requiring producers and traders to demonstrate that the source of their commodities complies with a set of principles that conserves forested landscapes and improves local livelihoods. The paper presents examples of international companies that are moving in this direction, analyzes why and how they are doing it and discusses the impact that has been measured in coffee and cocoa communities in Latin America and Africa. It particularly considers the role of standards and certification systems as a driver of this commitment to promote profitable operations, environmental conservation and social responsibility throughout the coffee and cocoa value chains. Such approaches are already being taken to scale and are no longer operating only in small niches of the market but the paper also considers the limitations to growth in this market-based approach.

  4. Incorporating Agroforestry Approaches into Commodity Value Chains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millard, Edward

    2011-08-01

    The productivity of tropical agricultural commodities is affected by the health of the ecosystem. Shade tolerant crops such as coffee and cocoa benefit from environmental services provided by forested landscapes, enabling landscape design that meets biodiversity conservation and economic needs. What can motivate farmers to apply and maintain such landscape approaches? Rather than rely on a proliferation of externally funded projects new opportunities are emerging through the international market that buys these commodities. As part of their growing commitment to sustainable supply chains, major companies are supporting agroforestry approaches and requiring producers and traders to demonstrate that the source of their commodities complies with a set of principles that conserves forested landscapes and improves local livelihoods. The paper presents examples of international companies that are moving in this direction, analyzes why and how they are doing it and discusses the impact that has been measured in coffee and cocoa communities in Latin America and Africa. It particularly considers the role of standards and certification systems as a driver of this commitment to promote profitable operations, environmental conservation and social responsibility throughout the coffee and cocoa value chains. Such approaches are already being taken to scale and are no longer operating only in small niches of the market but the paper also considers the limitations to growth in this market-based approach.

  5. Do food and oil prices co-move?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reboredo, Juan C.

    2012-01-01

    This paper studies co-movements between world oil prices and global prices for corn, soybean and wheat using copulas. Several copula models with different conditional dependence structures and time-varying dependence parameters were considered. Empirical results for weekly data from January 1998 to April 2011 showed weak oil-food dependence and no extreme market dependence between oil and food prices. These results support the neutrality of agricultural commodity markets to the effects of changes in oil prices and non-contagion between the crude oil and agricultural markets. However, dependence increased significantly in the last three years of the sampling period, even though upper tail dependence remained insignificant, indicating that food price spikes are not caused by positive extreme oil price changes. These results have implications for policy design, risk management and hedging strategies. - Highlights: ► We study co-movement between food and oil markets through copulas. ► Food prices are neutral to the effects of changes in oil prices. ► Oil price spikes had no causal effect on agricultural price spikes. ► Oil–corn and oil–soybean dependence increased in recent years. ► Food subsidy policies and price controls are unnecessary to avoid extreme oil prices.

  6. Pick by click. Online-markets for commodities; Zuschlag per Mausklick. Elektronische Marktplaetze in der Energiewirtschaft

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haug, M.; Schreiber, M. [EUtech Energie- und Umweltberatung GbR, Aachen (Germany); Aixergy AG, Aachen (Germany)

    2000-07-01

    The deregulation of the German energy market has led to growing competition (among the utilities), causing prices to crumble. Consumers must intensify their search efforts considerably in order to identify the most suitable utility. Internet-based 'B2B' market-places for commodities such as electricity, gas and water help to optimise the match between demand and supply. (orig.) [German] Mit dem Wegfall der Gebietsmonopole herrscht Wettbewerb auf dem Energiemarkt. Sinkende Preise sind die Folge. Fuer die Energieverbraucher wird es immer aufwendiger, den fuer sie guenstigsten Anbieter zu ermitteln. Hier sehen internetbasierte Handelsplattformen ihre Chance. Ueber B2B-Plattformen lassen sich Strom, Gas, Heizoel oder andere Commodities vertreiben. (orig.)

  7. Indonesia Export, Import, and Demand for Domestic Commodities under Economics Liberalisation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andi Irawan

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this research is to identify the behaviour of export, import and domestic commoditiesdemand in liberalization era both in the long run and the short run. This researchapplies the Vector Error Correction Model, Johansen Cointegration Test, Impulse ResponseAnalysis and Granger Causality Test. The data range from 1993:01 to 2002:12. The resultshows that in the long run the cross-price elasticity of imported non agricultural goods withrespect to demand for domestically produced goods have lower magnitudes than own priceelasticity of domestically produced goods. The demand elasticity of import commodities iselastic but that of domestic commodities is inelastic.Keywords: Import, Export, Economic Liberalization, Vector Error Correction Model

  8. 49 CFR 1248.1 - Freight commodity statistics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 9 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Freight commodity statistics. 1248.1 Section 1248... STATISTICS § 1248.1 Freight commodity statistics. All class I railroads, as described in § 1240.1 of this... statistics on the basis of the commodity codes named in § 1248.101. Carriers shall report quarterly on the...

  9. 7 CFR 1421.110 - Commodity certificate exchanges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... commodity certificate for the marketing assistance loan collateral. (b) The exchange rate is the lesser of... assistance loan collateral. (3) Immediately exchanging the purchased commodity certificate for the outstanding loan collateral. (e) The authority to make commodity certificates available to the producer will...

  10. Factor Structure in Commodity Futures Return and Volatility

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christoffersen, Peter; Lunde, Asger; Olesen, Kasper Vinther

    -2010 but have since returned to the pre-crisis level close to zero. The common factor in commodity volatility is nevertheless clearly related to stock market volatility. We conclude that, while commodity markets appear to again be segmented from the equity market when only returns are considered, commodity...

  11. Monitoring Particulate Matter with Commodity Hardware

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holstius, David

    correlation with 1h data from a Federal Equivalent Method (FEM) beta-attenuation data, prototype instruments performed as well as commercially available equipment costing considerably more, and as well as another reference instrument under similar conditions at the same timescale (R2 = 0.6). Correlations were stronger when 24 h integrating times were used instead (R2 = 0.72). Chapter 4 replicates and extends the results of Chapter 3, showing that similar calibrations may be reasonably exchangeable between near-roadway and background monitoring sites. Chapter 4 also employs triplicate sensors to obtain data consistent with near-field (< 50 m) observations of plumes from a major highway (I-880). At 1 minute timescales, maximum PM2.5 concentrations on the order of 100 mug m-3 to 200 mug m-3 were observed, commensurate with the magnitude of plumes from wildfires on longer timescales, as well as the magnitude of plumes that might be expected near other major highways on the same timescale. Finally, Chapter 4 quantifies variance among calibration parameters for a large sample of the sensors, as well as the error associated with the remote transfer of calibrations between two sufficiently large sets (+/- 10 % for n = 12). These findings suggest that datasets generated with similar sensors could also improve upstream scientific understandings of fluxes resulting from indoor and outdoor emissions, atmospheric transformations, and transport, and may also facilitate timely and empirical verification of interventions to reduce emissions and exposures, in many important contexts (e.g., the provision of improved cookstoves; congestion pricing; mitigation policies attached to infill development; etc.). They also demonstrate that calibrations against continuous reference monitoring equipment could be remotely transferred, within practical tolerances, to reasonably sized and adequately resourced participatory monitoring campaigns, with minimal risk of disruption to existing monitoring

  12. Improving agricultural commodity supply-chain to promote economic activities in rural area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Padjung, R.

    2018-05-01

    Long supply chain of agricultural commodities has become concern to governments particularly in large countries such as Indonesia as it causes high price disparity between farm-gate and retailer. Policies to overcome such problem are usually by shortening the chain, by which farmers sell the products directly to retailers. Using an action research in AEDEF (Aceh Economic Development Financing Facilities) Program, conducted in the province of Nangro Aceh Darussalam (NAD) Indonesia, the paper shows that shortening the commodity supply chain is not the best solution to such problem, as it causes loss of jobs in the villages. High price disparity between farm-gate and retailer is not necessary brought about by long supply-chain but by the efficiency of the chain instead. Efficiency of the chain can be improved by creating enabling business environment such that every actors and players work in a fair manner. This can be achieved by transparency in price and quality grade. With development achieved in Information and Communication Technology (ICT), having a good and reliable flow of such information is not difficult. In addition to information flow, the availability and quality of infrastructure to support flow of goods from farm-gate to end-user is of reasonably important.

  13. Product price control using game theory: A case study of a fish price in the state of Terengganu

    Science.gov (United States)

    Safiih, L. Muhamad; Afiq, R. Mohd Noor

    2014-07-01

    The increase in the price of goods is often a concern among the community. This is caused by factors that beyond of controlled such as a natural disaster, and others that cause the demand exceed the current supply. However, what is more concerning is the increase in price of goods due to the individual who raises the price in order to earn higher profits. Therefore, to overcome this problem, a method of price controls using Game Theory is considered. The Game Theory realizing a form of observational on the action and effects that occur by an individual or group to maximize the utilization under certain circumstances. The study was conducted on prices of 14 fish commodities in the state of Terengganu and also to see the cooperation effect between players of commodity prices. Data were analysed by using the software Gambit. The result shows that there is significant increase due to the influence of middlemen. The findings also shows that the price controls are applied at a set time, then it was applied to other times, prices are more stable and profitable returns to all parties can be maximized.

  14. Determinants and Sustainability of House Prices: The Case of Shanghai, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gao Lu Zou

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Recent housing policies include measures for home purchase control and shanty town redevelopment. This study proposes sustainable pricing, in that the long-run equilibrium price is determined by the fundamentals of house prices. We argue that changes in CPI might have led to rapidly growing house prices and rather high price levels. We investigate the long-run or short-run impacts of new commodity housing completions, transacted square meters of commodity housing, and CPI for house prices in Shanghai. We adopt monthly data for the period of 2005–2010. We test for unit roots using both the ADF and PP techniques and structural breaks using both the Zivot-Andrews (Model B and Perron (Model C methods. Considering Cheung-Lai and Reinsel–Ahn finite-sample corrections, the results suggest a long-run equilibrium. Housing completions negatively impact house prices in the short run. A positive volume-price relationship is suggested. Housing sales affect house prices in the short run but not vice versa. Hence, the empirical evidence supports the search model. In addition, CPI is strongly exogenous with respect to the long-run relationship and thus is a long-term determinant of house prices. CPI also positively and drastically influences house prices in the short run. Therefore, a reduction in inflation rate could stabilize house prices, increasing the chances of sustainable prices in the future.

  15. Bank Share Prices and Profitability

    OpenAIRE

    Daniel Daugaard; Tom Valentine

    1993-01-01

    This paper considers the influence of economic conditions and financial markets on Australian bank share prices and profitability. It uses time series analysis to obtain an indication of the effectiveness of banks in managing their exposure to interest rates and exchange rates. The results give rise to some comments on the extent to which banks actively manage their exposure to financial and economic variables. The discussion of risk management activities necessarily raises the question of ho...

  16. Modelling prices in competitive electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bunn, D.W.

    2004-04-01

    Electricity markets are structurally different to other commodities, and the real-time dynamic balancing of the electricity network involves many external factors. Because of this, it is not a simple matter to transfer conventional models of financial time series analysis to wholesale electricity prices. The rationale for this compilation of chapters from international authors is, therefore, to provide econometric analysis of wholesale power markets around the world, to give greater understanding of their particular characteristics, and to assess the applicability of various methods of price modelling. Researchers and professionals in this sector will find the book an invaluable guide to the most important state-of-the-art modelling techniques which are converging to define the special approaches necessary for unravelling and forecasting the behaviour of electricity prices. It is a high-quality synthesis of the work of financial engineering, industrial economics and power systems analysis, as they relate to the behaviour of competitive electricity markets. (author)

  17. The price level and monetary policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charles P. Kindleberger

    2002-03-01

    Full Text Available Most central banks are required to or choose to stabilize a price index, largely by manipulating short term interest rates. A serious problem is which index to choose among the national income deflator, wholesale prices, the cost of living, with or eliminating highly volatile commodities such as food and energy, to produce a core index, plus others such as housing, including or without imputed rent of owner-occupied houses, or assets, whether equities or houses. No obvious and widely agreed index exists. Even if there were a clear choice, there remains a question whether a central bank should carefully consider action in order to achieve other goals: full employment, adjustment of the balance of payments, of the exchange rate, prevention of bubbles in asset prices, or recovery from financial crises. If so, the question of central bank weapons remains: monetary expansion or contraction, credit controls, for overall or for particular purposes, and moral suasion.

  18. Energy consumption and energy prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bentzen, J.

    1993-01-01

    Data are presented on energy consumption and energy prices related to a number of OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) lands covering the period 1951-1990. The information sources are described and the development of energy consumption and prices in Denmark are illustrated in relation to these other countries. The energy intensity (the relation between energy consumption and the gross national product) is dealt with. Here it is possible to follow development during the whole post-war period. It is generally understood that Denmark saved large amounts of energy after 1973-74 but, taken over the whole post-war period, savings and decline in energy-gross national product relations are less dramatic compared to conditions in other OECD countries. Energy coefficients or elasticities show the relative rise in consumption compared to the relative rise in gross national product (growth rate). This is shown to be typically unstable and an eventual connection with the amount of energy price increase and/or the growth rate of the national economy is considered. Results of Granger causuality tests on energy consumption, national income and energy prices are presented. Effective energy prices were very low in Denmark up to 1970 when they suddenly began to increase. Since the oil crisis Denmark's energy consumption has fallen whereas the other countries have used rather more energy than before. Effective promotion of energy savings must be seen in relation to the fact that the 1970 basis level of energy consumption and intensity was unusually high. The high effective energy prices have also encouraged energy savings in Denmark. (AB)

  19. Effects of rising food prices on household food security on ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2015-05-13

    May 13, 2015 ... This study was conducted in January 2013 at Runnymede Village ... The data were entered and stored in a spreadsheet of Microsoft®. Excel®, and ..... Valoyi Traditional Governance Authority, N'wamitwa Tribal Office.

  20. The Answer to Rising Gas Prices...Nitrogen?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Frank; Batelaan, Herman

    2010-01-01

    It is claimed by the company NitroFill and the GetNitrogen Institute that filling car tires with nitrogen improves gas mileage considerably. The reason given is that oxygen leaks out of tires so that the increased rolling friction causes a reduced gas mileage. Because it is hard to do an actual road test, we report on a simple visual test of…

  1. Unit of Account, Medium of Exchange, and Prices

    OpenAIRE

    Young Sik Kim; Manjong Lee

    2011-01-01

    The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity-money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller¡¯s choice with regard to posting price in terms of either an MoE or a UoA. If the likelihood of debasement of MoE or its rate is high enough and agents are sufficiently risk averse, there exists a monetary equilibrium in which price is quoted in terms of a UoA. Further, a UoA-posting equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas ...

  2. Time series ARIMA models for daily price of palm oil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ariff, Noratiqah Mohd; Zamhawari, Nor Hashimah; Bakar, Mohd Aftar Abu

    2015-02-01

    Palm oil is deemed as one of the most important commodity that forms the economic backbone of Malaysia. Modeling and forecasting the daily price of palm oil is of great interest for Malaysia's economic growth. In this study, time series ARIMA models are used to fit the daily price of palm oil. The Akaike Infromation Criterion (AIC), Akaike Infromation Criterion with a correction for finite sample sizes (AICc) and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) are used to compare between different ARIMA models being considered. It is found that ARIMA(1,2,1) model is suitable for daily price of crude palm oil in Malaysia for the year 2010 to 2012.

  3. Energy prices and taxes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-01-01

    Energy Prices and Taxes contains a major international compilation of energy prices at all market levels: import prices, industry prices and consumer prices. The statistics cover main petroleum products, gas, coal and electricity, giving for imported products an average price both for importing country and country of origin. Every issue includes full notes on sources and methods and a description of price mechanisms in each country

  4. MARKET ECONOMICS PRICING PARTICULARS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. I. Parshin

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The price performs several economic functions: accounting, stimulation, distribution, demand and offer balancing, serving as production site rational choice criterion, information. Most important pricing principles are: price scientific and purpose-aimed substantiation, single pricing and price control process. Pricing process factors are external, internal, basic (independent on money-market, market-determined and controlling. Different pricing methods and models are to be examined, recommendations on practical application of those chosen are to be written.

  5. THE PRICE OF HIGHER EDUCATION AND INDIVIDUAL DEMAND

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Filiz Golpek

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The rise in the living standards in most of the world, the rise in population and schooling rates have increased the demand for higher education. The attribution of semi public property becomes determinant to decide whom will provide the supply and the production in semi public properties is realized by means of a supply and demand mechanism. The supply of higher education is mostly secured in accordance with the public demand as well as the resources available.  In addition, the fact that higher education services have produced significant benefits has led to over demand. This situation relates to a simple economic rule that a commodity or service which costs almost nothing or little will increase until the mariginal benefit of its demand equals to 0 or almost 0. However, the educational supply and demand is difficult to identify in accordance to the supply and demand and balance of price as observed in the economic theory. The high profits that would be attracted in the future are significant factors influencing individual’s decisions for investment. The decision for investment depends on the possible return in the future, the cost of investment, and the current interest rates. Higher education with investment purposes is influenced by these three factors and higher education is demanded more and more by individuals on the expectation that they will gain high profits In theory, it is accepted that the basic factors identifying the demand for higher education are in harmony with empirical research results in several countries including Turkey.

  6. The Normative Impact of Consumer Price Expectations for Multiple Brands on Consumer Purchase Behavior

    OpenAIRE

    Aradhna Krishna

    1992-01-01

    Empirical research indicates that some consumers form price expectations which may impact their purchase behavior. While literature in operations research has built purchase policy models incorporating uncertain price expectations, these models have been built for commodities. Consumers face an environment with multiple brands. In this paper, we develop a model that incorporates consumer preferences and price expectations for multiple brands as determinants of normative consumer purchase beha...

  7. Oil Market and Prices Prospects for 2014

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariana Papatulica

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available The international crude oil prices started the year 2014 within parameters comparable to those of the precedent year: WTI (USA recorded 92 $/barrel, on the American spot market, considered a minimum value for the last 5 weeks, while Brent (Great Britain had a more stable evolution, on the spot Rotterdam market, staying around a value of 107,50 $/barrel. Despite analysts’ forecasts, which during the last 3 years staked on a lower oil price, as a consequence of the spectacular increase in non-OPEC oil production, namely of shale oil, the international oil price, namely that of Brent, closed each of the last 3 years around the same level, of 108 $/barrel. As for 2014, the great majority of oil analysts estimates again a decline of oil prices, as a result of a significant rise of oil offer globally, which will greatly surpass the demand rise.

  8. A history of prices in Canada, 1840-1871: a new wholesale price index

    OpenAIRE

    Donald G. Paterson; Ronald A. Shearer

    2003-01-01

    We present a new monthly wholesale price index for Canada, 1840-71, comparing fluctuations in the Canadian macroeconomy with fluctuations in similar U.S. and British indexes. Canadian prices move through distinct phases: the 1840s rise in prices and the decline in the depression of 1848-49; the mid-century economic boom and the 1857 depression; U.S. Civil War inflation and apparent Canadian price insulation through a flexible exchange rate created by U.S. withdrawal from gold; and the non-inf...

  9. Towards a Gendered Agro-Commodity Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Primrose Nakazibwe

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Commodity or value chains are the dominant means to channel agro-food products from cultivators to consumers. Direct open markets are either non-existent or insignificant . These chains are also the main mechanisms for integrating underprivileged groups into the world economy. Why do global value chains generate sorrow for many and joy for a few, and why are these outcomes heavily gender biased? To look for answers this article critically reviews the post-2000 and earlier gender literature by proponents and opponents of the mainstream value chain approach. The purpose is to provide a methodological contribution on the integration of gender into the commodity chain approach. Most studies have fo cused on the economic effects of chain dynamics on women in agricultural product and labor markets. Some have extended this reasoning with social and cultural effects. Despite these advances, analytical gaps still exist as most existing research has concentrated on the agricultural nodes of modern, high value chains and lacks a gendered conceptual foundation. Scarce attention has been given to traditional staple crops, non-agricultural nodes, and feed back effects of gender relations on the chain. Our results indicate that an appropriate GCC approach should also consider the gendered impacts of the interaction between the governance structure and the institutiona l embeddedness, as well as the consequences of intra-household division of resources and labor in all stages of the chain. These two conceptual complements will be needed to explain the opportunities and constraints to improve gender equity in traditional and modern agro-commodity chains.

  10. Three essays on access pricing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sydee, Ahmed Nasim

    access pricing with congestion and in which investments in infrastructure are lumpy. To fix ideas, the model is formulated in the context of airport infrastructure investments, which captures both the element of congestion and the lumpiness involved in infrastructure investments. The optimal investment program suggests how many units of capacity should be installed and at which times. Because time is continuous in the model, the discounted cost -- despite the lumpiness of capacity additions -- can be made to vary continuously by varying the time a capacity addition is made. The main results that emerge from the analysis can be described as follows: First, the global demand for air travel rises with time and experiences an upward jump whenever a capacity addition is made. Second, the access price is constant and stays at the basic level when the system is not congested. When the system is congested, a congestion surcharge is imposed on top of the basic level, and the congestion surcharge rises with the level of congestion until the next capacity addition is made at which time the access price takes a downward jump. Third, the individual demand for air travel is constant before congestion sets in and after the last capacity addition takes place. During a time interval in which congestion rises, the individual demand for travel is below the level that prevails when there is no congestion and declines as congestion worsens. The third essay contains a model of access pricing for natural gas transmission pipelines, both when pipeline operators are regulated and when they behave strategically. The high sunk costs involved in building a pipeline network constitute a serious barrier of entry, and competitive behaviour in the transmission pipeline sector cannot be expected. Most of the economic analyses of access pricing for natural gas transmission pipelines are carried out from the regulatory perspective, and the access price paid by shippers are cost-based. The model formalized

  11. Conceptual Model of Supply Chain Structure Mapping - A Case of Subsidized LPG Commodity in Yogyakarta

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sulistio, Joko; Thoif, Afifuddin; Fitri Alindira, Aulia

    2016-01-01

    — In 2007, the government launched a conversion program of kerosene to LPG by issuing a Presidential Regulation No. 104/2007 on Supply, Distribution and Pricing LPG 3 Kg. Article 2 on the regulation says that setting the supply, distribution, and pricing of LPG 3 Kg include planning an annual sales volume of enterprises, the reference price and the retail price and conditions of export and import of LPG 3 Kg in order to reduce subsidies Kerosene especially to divert the use of kerosene according to government policy. In principle, the purpose of this policy is to reduce energy subsidies on commodities, especially Kerosene. Although the government claimed the conversion program is success, there are few problems arising from conversion program. In 2014, many scarcity and high price of LPG 3 Kg were reported. In this case, Pertamina was given full authority to manage all supply chain and distribution. Because the root of the problem of scarcity that occurred in the supply chain system has not been explained, the proposed solutions will also be partial and not comprehensive. Thus, this research will build a structural map of the causes of supply chain system LPG 3 Kg, as well as providing a comprehensive picture of system dynamics of LPG 3 Kg supply chain system which applied in Indonesia. And the result is expected as in form of Causal Loop Diagram of supply chain system.

  12. Trends in prices to commercial energy consumers in the competitive Texas electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zarnikau, Jay; Fox, Marilyn; Smolen, Paul

    2007-01-01

    To date, the price of electricity to commercial or business energy consumers has generally increased at greater rates in the areas of Texas where retail competition has been introduced than in areas that do not enjoy competition. Trends in commercial competitive prices have largely mirrored trends in residential prices. Market restructuring has tended to increase the sensitivity of retail electricity prices to changes in the price of natural gas, the marginal fuel used for generation in Texas. Consequently, the rapid increases in the commodity price of natural gas following restructuring led to increases in competitive electric rates which exceeded the increases in areas not exposed to restructuring, where the fuel component of electric rates tend to reflect a weighted average of the utilities' fuel costs. There is some evidence that pricing behavior by competitive retailers changed when the retailers affiliated with the incumbent utilities were permitted some pricing flexibility, resulting in a reduction in prices. (author)

  13. Accurate market price formation model with both supply-demand and trend-following for global food prices providing policy recommendations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lagi, Marco; Bar-Yam, Yavni; Bertrand, Karla Z; Bar-Yam, Yaneer

    2015-11-10

    Recent increases in basic food prices are severely affecting vulnerable populations worldwide. Proposed causes such as shortages of grain due to adverse weather, increasing meat consumption in China and India, conversion of corn to ethanol in the United States, and investor speculation on commodity markets lead to widely differing implications for policy. A lack of clarity about which factors are responsible reinforces policy inaction. Here, for the first time to our knowledge, we construct a dynamic model that quantitatively agrees with food prices. The results show that the dominant causes of price increases are investor speculation and ethanol conversion. Models that just treat supply and demand are not consistent with the actual price dynamics. The two sharp peaks in 2007/2008 and 2010/2011 are specifically due to investor speculation, whereas an underlying upward trend is due to increasing demand from ethanol conversion. The model includes investor trend following as well as shifting between commodities, equities, and bonds to take advantage of increased expected returns. Claims that speculators cannot influence grain prices are shown to be invalid by direct analysis of price-setting practices of granaries. Both causes of price increase, speculative investment and ethanol conversion, are promoted by recent regulatory changes-deregulation of the commodity markets, and policies promoting the conversion of corn to ethanol. Rapid action is needed to reduce the impacts of the price increases on global hunger.

  14. General Equilibrium in a Segmented Market Economy with Convex Transaction Cost: Existence, Efficiency, Commodity and Fiat Money

    OpenAIRE

    Starr, Ross M.

    2002-01-01

    This study derives the monetary structure of transactions, the use of commodity or fiat money, endogenously from transaction costs in a segmented market general equilibrium model. Market segmentation means there are separate budget constraints for each transaction: budgets balance in each transaction separately. Transaction costs imply differing bid and ask (selling and buying) prices. The most liquid instruments are those with the lowest proportionate bid/ask spread in equilibrium. Exist...

  15. Health care prices, the federal budget, and economic growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monaco, R M; Phelps, J H

    1995-01-01

    Rising health care spending, led by rising prices, has had an enormous impact on the economy, especially on the federal budget. Our work shows that if rapid growth in health care prices continues, under current institutional arrangements, real economic growth and employment will be lower during the next two decades than if health price inflation were somehow reduced. How big the losses are and which sectors bear the brunt of the costs vary depending on how society chooses to fund the federal budget deficit that stems from the rising cost of federal health care programs.

  16. Modelling world gold prices and USD foreign exchange relationship using multivariate GARCH model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ping, Pung Yean; Ahmad, Maizah Hura Binti

    2014-12-01

    World gold price is a popular investment commodity. The series have often been modeled using univariate models. The objective of this paper is to show that there is a co-movement between gold price and USD foreign exchange rate. Using the effect of the USD foreign exchange rate on the gold price, a model that can be used to forecast future gold prices is developed. For this purpose, the current paper proposes a multivariate GARCH (Bivariate GARCH) model. Using daily prices of both series from 01.01.2000 to 05.05.2014, a causal relation between the two series understudied are found and a bivariate GARCH model is produced.

  17. Gas prices: realities and probabilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Broadfoot, M.

    2000-01-01

    An assessment of price trends suggests continuing rise in 2001, with some easing of upward price movement in 2002 and 2003. Storage levels as of Nov. 1, 2000 are expected to be at 2.77 Tcf, but if the winter of 2000/2001 proves to be more severe than usual, inventory levels could sink as low as 500 Bcf by April 1, 2001. With increasing demand for natural gas for non-utility electric power generation the major challenge will be to achieve significant supply growth, which means increased developmental drilling and inventory draw-downs, as well as more exploratory drilling in deepwater and frontier regions. Absence of a significant supply response by next summer will affect both growth in demand and in price levels, and the increased demand for electric generation in the summer will create a flatter consumption profile, erasing the traditional summer/winter spread in consumption, further intensifying price volatility. Managing price fluctuations is the second biggest challenge (after potential supply problems) facing the industry

  18. Segmentation of the industrial market for food commodities: A conjoint study of purchase of vegetable oils in the mayonnaise and margarine industries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bech-Larsen, Tino; Skytte, Hans

    Executive summary The purpose of this working paper is to study whether current market and technological developments in the vegetable oil industry can be used as the outset for a price and/or quality based segmentation of the major industrial markets for this product. More specifically we want...... that the application of concepts from ind buying behaviour to the study of commodity buying, such as the procurement of vegetable oil, is an appropriate outset, when trying to segment the market for such commodities. The article begins with a brief discussion of why food commodity markets should be segmented......, then follows current developments in the demand and technology conditions on the market for vegetable oil. Later we discuss how concepts from industrial buying behaviour can add to the understanding of commodity buying and segmentati Following this a conjoint model of vegetable oil procurement in the vegetable...

  19. Federal Republic of Germany: Commodities report 2003

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-01-01

    The Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR) has compiled the facts and figures in a commodities report for 25 years. This report summarises Germany's mineral and energy commodities trading, consumption and supply situation. After fears of shortages in the early 70s, this 25-year-period was mainly characterised by the feeling that mineral resources would always be available on the international markets in adequate quantities. And although there has been no change in the situation even up to the present day, the world markets for mineral resources are currently undergoing a structural change: the old rule of thumb that 20% of humanity in Europe, the USA and Japan consumed more than 80% of resource production is no longer valid. With India, the People's Republic of China, not to mention other heavily populated emerging countries, over half of the world's population is now involved in the demand for minerals. This means that the growth in world economic demand for natural resources is at the beginning of a new growth curve. (orig.)

  20. Price and consumption of tobacco

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Virendra Singh

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: It is thought that price increase in tobacco products leads to reduced consumption. Though many studies have substantiated this concept, it has not been well studied in India. Recently, price of tobacco products was increased due to ban on plastic sachets of chewing tobacco and increased tax in Rajasthan. This study was designed to evaluate the effect of price rise on overall consumption of tobacco in Jaipur city, Rajasthan. Materials and Methods: This study was carried out in Jaipur city. Two-staged stratified sampling was used. In the first phase of study, cost and consumption of various tobacco products in the months of February and April were enquired from 25 retail tobacco shops. In the second phase, tobacco consumption was enquired from 20 consecutive consumers purchasing any tobacco product from all the above retail tobacco shops. The data were statistically analyzed using descriptive statistics and paired "t" test. Results: The comparison of prices of tobacco products between February and April revealed that the price of cigarette, bidi, and chewing tobacco has increased by 19%, 21%, and 68%, respectively. Average decrease in sales of cigarettes, bidi, and chewing tobacco at shops included in the study were 14%, 23%, and 38%, respectively. The consumers purchasing tobacco also reported decreased consumption. Chewing tobacco showed the maximum reduction (21%. Consumption of cigarette and bidi has also reduced by 15% and 13%, respectively. Conclusion: It may be concluded that reduction in consumption is associated with increased price of tobacco products. Reduced consumption is comparative to the magnitude of price increase.

  1. 17 CFR 4.14 - Exemption from registration as a commodity trading advisor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... a commodity trading advisor. 4.14 Section 4.14 Commodity and Securities Exchanges COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION COMMODITY POOL OPERATORS AND COMMODITY TRADING ADVISORS General Provisions, Definitions and Exemptions § 4.14 Exemption from registration as a commodity trading advisor. This section is...

  2. 17 CFR 32.9 - Fraud in connection with commodity option transactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Fraud in connection with commodity option transactions. 32.9 Section 32.9 Commodity and Securities Exchanges COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION REGULATION OF COMMODITY OPTION TRANSACTIONS § 32.9 Fraud in connection with commodity...

  3. A Note on the Ongoing Processes of Commodification: From the Audience Commodity to the Social Factory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jernej Prodnik

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Commodity-form played an important, if often overlooked role in the studies of capitalism. Processes of transforming literally anything into a privatized form of (fictitious commodity that is exchanged in the circulation process are of fundamental importance for the rise and reproduction of capitalism. At the same time commodity, as the “cell-form of capitalism”, has played a crucial role throughout Marx’s oeuvre. The central aim of the paper is to demonstrate how commodity-form develops in his works (both as a part of his “global” argument and in the context of historical changes and what role does it play in some of the key works of critical theory. Furthermore, it is analysed how this topic was approached in critical communication studies, especially in the political economy of communication. The latter is done especially through a reappraisal of the “blind spot debate” iniated by Dallas W. Smythe and the audience commodity thesis, which was raised in it. This long-lasting debate, which at least indirectly continues to this day, can be seen as an invaluable source for practices and ideas connected to both Marxian-inspired critical communication studies and to a serious analysis of the continuing commodification of different spheres of society and its increasing pervasiveness in contemporary life. In the last part of the text, these findings are connected to some of the recent neo-Marxist approaches, especially to the findings of the authors coming from the autonomist (post-operaist movement. Insights of this intellectual strand can provide an understanding of the ongoing commodification processes, while also offering possibilities of convergence with Smythe’s approach.

  4. Do gasoline prices exhibit asymmetry? Not usually

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Douglas, Christopher C.

    2010-01-01

    Previous studies have found evidence of asymmetric price adjustment in U.S. retail gasoline prices in that gasoline prices rise more rapidly in response to a cost increase than fall in response to a cost decrease. By estimating a threshold cointegration model that allows for multiple regimes, I am able to test how sensitive this result is to outlying observations. In contrast to previous studies, I find little evidence of asymmetry for the vast majority of observations and that the asymmetry is being driven by a small number of outlying observations. (author)

  5. Will India set the price for teleradiology?

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLean, Thomas R

    2009-06-01

    With a lower cost for labour, Indian teleradiologists have an absolute price advantage in the global market. However, because trade is determined by comparative advantage rather than absolute price advantage, India's ability to export teleradiology services may be limited. The issue is, can the 'India price' for teleradiology set the price for these services in the USA? Review of the economic literature concerning the global teleradiology market. Currently, minimal information exists concerning the economic of global teleradiology market. However, a Ricardian analysis of this market suggests that India's ability to export teleradiology may be limited by rising opportunity costs (i.e. social unrest). Similarly, Heckscher-Ohlin analysis suggests that a lack of English-speaking physicians will limit India's ability to export teleradiology services to the USA. It appears unlikely that India will gain sufficient market share in the USA to determine the price of teleradiology services.

  6. Cancer Drugs: An International Comparison of Postlicensing Price Inflation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Savage, Philip; Mahmoud, Sarah; Patel, Yogin; Kantarjian, Hagop

    2017-06-01

    The cost of cancer drugs forms a rising proportion of health care budgets worldwide. A number of studies have examined international comparisons of initial cost, but there is little work on postlicensing price increases. To examine this, we compared cancer drug prices at initial sale and subsequent price inflation in the United States and United Kingdom and also reviewed relevant price control mechanisms. The 10 top-selling cancer drugs were selected, and their prices at initial launch and in 2015 were compared. Standard nondiscounted prices were obtained from the relevant annual copies of the RED BOOK and the British National Formulary. At initial marketing, prices were on average 42% higher in the United States than in the United Kingdom. After licensing in the United States, all 10 drugs had price rises averaging an overall annual 8.8% (range, 1.4% to 24.1%) increase. In comparison, in the United Kingdom, six drugs had unchanged prices, two had decreased prices, and two had modest price increases. The overall annual increase in the United Kingdom was 0.24%. Cancer drug prices are rising substantially, both at their initial marketing price and, in the United States, at postlicensing prices. In the United Kingdom, the Pharmaceutical Price Regulation Scheme, an agreement between the government and the pharmaceutical industry, controls health care costs while allowing a return on investment and funds for research. The increasing costs of cancer drugs are approaching the limits of sustainability, and a similar government-industry agreement may allow stability for both health care provision and the pharmaceutical industry in the United States.

  7. Education: Commodity, Come-On, or Commitment?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, John W.

    2000-07-01

    July 4, and the glass art shown on pages 812-816, remind us that freedom is fragile. Through their governments, citizens of democracies have traditionally made strong commitments to education on grounds that without it individuals would not be able to act responsibly and to make wise decisions in voting booths and public meetings. All citizens have a stake in everyone's education, because a better-educated citizenry benefits all of society. In this country such a commitment has produced a system of public schools and public universities that offers opportunities to many who otherwise could not afford a level of education commensurate with their talents. But there are signs that this commitment to public education is flagging. Many students, teachers, and administrators view education as merely a way to enhance personal prosperity. How often have you heard the statistic that a college education pays for itself through increased earning power, even if it costs $20,000-30,000 per year? Investing in education pays off just as investing in the stock market does, provided you wait long enough. Attending a better school gets you a better job and a better income. In other words, a certified level of education is a commodity-something that is useful and can be turned to commercial advantage. Viewing education as a commodity has several consequences. First, if education is a means to better employment rather than better citizenship, why should anyone pay for it other than the person who benefits? Why should I pay taxes to help someone else get a better job when I could be spending the money for my own benefit? Education as a commodity makes such attitudes reasonable, though not commendable, and the result is lessened support for public education. Second, those who supply education as an economic good should be rewarded, and those who are much better at educating should be rewarded much more. Hence the fear of Arthur Levine, president of Teachers College, Columbia University

  8. Pricing and Trust

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Huck, Steffen; Ruchala, Gabriele K.; Tyran, Jean-Robert

    -competitive (monopolistic) markets. We then introduce a regulated intermediate price above the oligopoly price and below the monopoly price. The effect in monopolies is more or less in line with standard intuition. As price falls volume increases and so does quality, such that overall efficiency is raised by 50%. However......We experimentally examine the effects of flexible and fixed prices in markets for experience goods in which demand is driven by trust. With flexible prices, we observe low prices and high quality in competitive (oligopolistic) markets, and high prices coupled with low quality in non...

  9. Primary Commodity Dependency: A Limiting Factor for Achieving Democracy

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-03-24

    two ~gricultural crops, minerals, petroleum, or fisheries can be considered primary commodity dependent. Tea, coffee, and cocoa ; peanuts and cotton...Rostow’s Development Model Pre-conditions for take-off mass consumption democracy. In 1960s, economists, associated democratization to a developmental...Commodities can be renewable or non-renewable. Petroleum, diamonds, cocoa , bananas, coffee, and timber are just a few of the commodities that have

  10. The role of internal reference prices in consumers' willingness to pay judgments: Thaler's Beer Pricing Task revisited.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ranyard, R; Charlton, J P; Williamson, J

    2001-02-01

    Alternative reference prices, either displayed in the environment (external) or recalled from memory (internal) are known to influence consumer judgments and decisions. In one line of previous research, internal reference prices have been defined in terms of general price expectations. However, Thaler (Marketing Science 4 (1985) 199; Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 12 (1999) 183) defined them as fair prices expected from specific types of seller. Using a Beer Pricing Task, he found that seller context had a substantial effect on willingness to pay, and concluded that this was due to specific internal reference prices evoked by specific contexts. In a think aloud study using the same task (N = 48), we found only a marginal effect of seller context. In a second study using the Beer Pricing Task and seven analogous ones (N = 144), general internal reference prices were estimated by asking people what they normally paid for various commodities. Both general internal reference prices and seller context influenced willingness to pay, although the effect of the latter was again rather small. We conclude that general internal reference prices have a greater impact in these scenarios than specific ones, because of the lower cognitive load involved in their storage and retrieval.

  11. Food Price Volatility and Decadal Climate Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, M. E.

    2013-12-01

    The agriculture system is under pressure to increase production every year as global population expands and more people move from a diet mostly made up of grains, to one with more meat, dairy and processed foods. Weather shocks and large changes in international commodity prices in the last decade have increased pressure on local food prices. This paper will review several studies that link climate variability as measured with satellite remote sensing to food price dynamics in 36 developing countries where local monthly food price data is available. The focus of the research is to understand how weather and climate, as measured by variations in the growing season using satellite remote sensing, has affected agricultural production, food prices and access to food in agricultural societies. Economies are vulnerable to extreme weather at multiple levels. Subsistence small holders who hold livestock and consume much of the food they produce are vulnerable to food production variability. The broader society, however, is also vulnerable to extreme weather because of the secondary effects on market functioning, resource availability, and large-scale impacts on employment in trading, trucking and wage labor that are caused by weather-related shocks. Food price variability captures many of these broad impacts and can be used to diagnose weather-related vulnerability across multiple sectors. The paper will trace these connections using market-level data and analysis. The context of the analysis is the humanitarian aid community, using the guidance of the USAID Famine Early Warning Systems Network and the United Nation's World Food Program in their response to food security crises. These organizations have worked over the past three decades to provide baseline information on food production through satellite remote sensing data and agricultural yield models, as well as assessments of food access through a food price database. Econometric models and spatial analysis are used

  12. 7 CFR 1000.50 - Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing... advanced pricing factors. Class prices per hundredweight of milk containing 3.5 percent butterfat, component prices, and advanced pricing factors shall be as follows. The prices and pricing factors described...

  13. Overview of plant dosimetry in agricultural commodities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khedkar, Kalpana C.

    2014-01-01

    Extensive research carried out for more than three decades at Bhabha Atomic Research Centre, Bombay and other laboratories in India had conclusively established application of radiation processing of food for catering to the domestic and export market. A major milestone of food irradiation was reached in the country when Board of Radiation and Isotope Technology, a constituent unit of Department of Atomic Energy had set up 'SPICE PLANT' at Vashi, Navi Mumbai in the year 2000. It was first demonstration plant for radiation processing of spices for hygienisation purpose. For expanding scope of applications in agricultural sector, the next step in this direction was taken by BARC for setting up 'KRUSHAK' plant at Lasalgaon, Nashik. This was the first plant for low dose application of gamma radiation in agricultural commodities i.e. for sprout inhibition in onion and potatoes

  14. From creation to consumption: objects and commodities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angélica Bautista López

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available Objects, persons and ideas are all merely merchandise in a world that is highly industrialised and utterly superficial. Consumer societies produce a profusion of merchandise. In strictly economic terms, merchandise is whatever has an exchange-value, in  a world where objects are valued for their utility. So goods are whatever is useful, where use can be measured in monetary terms. This perspective impoverishes social relations. People relate only insofar as their value dictates, and that value is merely utilitarian. Moreover, this commercialisation reaches up to impoverish society as a whole. All this is the result of a long process of objectification which, seeing the world as the exchange of goods, ends up treating people just like any other tradable commodity. This article takes a critical look at the processes involved, and proposes an explanation in terms of the social construction of 'utility''.

  15. The New Commodity: Technicity and Poetic Form

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brian Kim Stefans

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available One of the key strands of early thinking by the Language Poets, notably Charles Bernstein, Bruce Andrews and Steve McCaffery, was that the poem—particularly the mainstream, American lyric in thrall to the Imagist tradition—should be understood as partaking in the commodity system, either in its capacity of presenting the world itself as consumable or as a commodity itself. Strategies to retool the poem included an exaggerated de-naturalization of language (akin to Brecht’s Verfremdung Effekt, the permanent deferral of epiphany as “pay off” (i.e., writing as ongoing phenomenological investigation, and, most extremely, the poem as engaged in a “general” as opposed to a “closed” economy—as pure expenditure, linguistic waste, in George Bataille’s sense. These practices, however, while they might have, in theory, “de-commodified” the poem (the evidence weighs against it, but it’s quite impossible to prove, have nonetheless confirmed the centrality of the early notion by William Carlos Williams that a poem is a “machine,” an autonomous producer of meanings, and to that extent an object. The French philosopher Gilbert Simondon argues in his theory of technicity that something human lies at the heart of the technical object and that its technical essence, like any player in the Darwinian evolution, has its own evolutionary journey through time. In Bernard Stiegler’s succinct formulation, “[a]s a ‘process of exteriorization,’ technics is the pursuit of life by means other than life.” This confluence of ideas suggests a possibility: that the technical elements of poems—what might have formerly been understood as stylistic tics, characteristic methods, visual and prosodic features—are themselves engaged in a quest for “life,” and that poems are in fact always already objects, existing outside of the system of commodities if only by virtue of obtaining an ontological status both: (1 irreducible to an over

  16. Pricing products: juxtaposing affordability with quality appeal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1984-01-01

    Choosing appropriate product prices is 1 of the most crucial steps in creating an effective contraceptive social marketing (CSM) sales campaign. The Social Marketing Forum conducted an informal survey of social marketing project managers, international contractors, and marketing consultants to determine how CSM programs cope with pricing problems and ways to circumvent some obstacles. According to Diana Altman, a family planning consultant, low prices that make products available to needy individuals are more important than the program's self sufficiency, yet if prices are too low, consumers think the products were unusable in the US and thus were dumped on local markets. Other key factors include commercial competition, spiraling inflation rates, and problems with rising prices and retailer/distributor margins. A sampling of per capita gross national products indicates the poverty level of most CSM projects' target market. Consequently, CSM projects must set low pices, regardless of program operating costs. The goal often is to increase the demand and availability for contraceptives. The fact that social marketing products must pass through retail networks to reach consumers complicates the pricing equation. To deal with the problem, India's Nirodh program gives a 25% margin to distributors/wholesalers, compared to 6% offered on most other goods. Retailers also receive a 25% margin, more than double the commercial rate. Once prices are set, increases pose hazards. Local government approval often is a prerequisite and can require lengthy negotiations. Market studies remain a valuable approach to effective pricing, according to PNA's Mallamad and other research consultants. They cite such effective research strategies as test marketing products and asking consumers how prices affect buying habits. Further, CSM projects can jump over some pricing hurdles through creative marketing. An effective pricing strategy alone cannot produce a successful CSM program. Pricing

  17. Competitive Pricing by a Price Leader

    OpenAIRE

    Abhik Roy; Dominique M. Hanssens; Jagmohan S. Raju

    1994-01-01

    We examine the problem of pricing in a market where one brand acts as a price leader. We develop a procedure to estimate a leader's price rule, which is optimal given a sales target objective, and allows for the inclusion of demand forecasts. We illustrate our estimation procedure by calibrating this optimal price rule for both the leader and the follower using data on past sales and prices from the mid-size sedan segment of the U.S. automobile market. Our results suggest that a leader-follow...

  18. ACCOUNTING ASPECTS OF PRICING AND TRANSFER PRICING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    TÜNDE VERES

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The pricing methods in practice need really complex view of the business situation and depend on the strategy and market position of a company. The structure of a price seems simple: cost plus margin. Both categories are special area in the management accounting. Information about the product costs, the allocation methodologies in cost accounting, the analyzing of revenue and different level of the margin needs information from accounting system. This paper analyzes the pricing methods from management accounting aspects to show out the role of the accounting system in the short term and long term pricing and transfer pricing decisions.

  19. Actuarial pricing of energy efficiency projects: lessons foul and fair

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mathew, Paul; Kromer, J. Stephen; Sezgen, Osman; Meyers, Steven

    2005-01-01

    Recent market convulsions in the energy industry have generated a plethora of post-mortem analyses on a wide range of issues, including accounting rules, corporate governance, commodity markets, and energy policy. While most of these analyses have focused on business practices related to wholesale energy trading, there has been limited analysis of retail energy services, particularly energy efficiency projects. We suggest that there were several business concepts and strategies in the energy efficiency arena whose inherent value may have been masked by the larger failure of companies such as Enron. In this paper, we describe one such concept, namely, actuarial pricing of energy efficiency projects, which leverages a portfolio-based approach to risk management. First, we discuss the business drivers, contrasting this approach with conventional industry practice. We then describe the implementation of this approach, including an actuarial database, pricing curves, and a pricing process compatible with commodity pricing. We conclude with a discussion of the prospects and barriers for the further development of transparent and quantifiable risk management products for energy efficiency, a prerequisite for developing energy efficiency as a tradeable commodity. We address these issues from an experiential standpoint, drawing mostly on our experience in developing and implementing such strategies at Enron

  20. Actuarial pricing of energy efficiency projects: lessons foul and fair

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mathew, Paul E-mail: pamathew@lbl.gov; Kromer, J. Stephen; Sezgen, Osman; Meyers, Steven

    2005-07-01

    Recent market convulsions in the energy industry have generated a plethora of post-mortem analyses on a wide range of issues, including accounting rules, corporate governance, commodity markets, and energy policy. While most of these analyses have focused on business practices related to wholesale energy trading, there has been limited analysis of retail energy services, particularly energy efficiency projects. We suggest that there were several business concepts and strategies in the energy efficiency arena whose inherent value may have been masked by the larger failure of companies such as Enron. In this paper, we describe one such concept, namely, actuarial pricing of energy efficiency projects, which leverages a portfolio-based approach to risk management. First, we discuss the business drivers, contrasting this approach with conventional industry practice. We then describe the implementation of this approach, including an actuarial database, pricing curves, and a pricing process compatible with commodity pricing. We conclude with a discussion of the prospects and barriers for the further development of transparent and quantifiable risk management products for energy efficiency, a prerequisite for developing energy efficiency as a tradeable commodity. We address these issues from an experiential standpoint, drawing mostly on our experience in developing and implementing such strategies at Enron.

  1. Price competition and equilibrium analysis in multiple hybrid channel supply chain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuang, Guihua; Wang, Aihu; Sha, Jin

    2017-06-01

    The amazing boom of Internet and logistics industry prompts more and more enterprises to sell commodity through multiple channels. Such market conditions make the participants of multiple hybrid channel supply chain compete each other in traditional and direct channel at the same time. This paper builds a two-echelon supply chain model with a single manufacturer and a single retailer who both can choose different channel or channel combination for their own sales, then, discusses the price competition and calculates the equilibrium price under different sales channel selection combinations. Our analysis shows that no matter the manufacturer and retailer choose same or different channel price to compete, the equilibrium price does not necessarily exist the equilibrium price in the multiple hybrid channel supply chain and wholesale price change is not always able to coordinate supply chain completely. We also present the sufficient and necessary conditions for the existence of equilibrium price and coordination wholesale price.

  2. Commodity hydrogen from off-peak electricity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Darrow, K.; Biederman, N.; Konopka, A.

    1977-01-01

    This paper considers the use of off-peak electrical power as an energy source for the electrolytic production of hydrogen. The present industrial uses for hydrogen are examined to determine if hydrogen produced in this fashion would be competitive with the industry's onsite production or existing hydrogen prices. The paper presents a technical and economic feasibility analysis of the various components required and of the operation of the system as a whole including production, transmission, storage, and markets.

  3. Modeling commodity salam contract between two parties for discrete and continuous time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hisham, Azie Farhani Badrol; Jaffar, Maheran Mohd

    2017-08-01

    In order for Islamic finance to remain competitive as the conventional, there needs a new development of Islamic compliance product such as Islamic derivative that can be used to manage the risk. However, under syariah principles and regulations, all financial instruments must not be conflicting with five syariah elements which are riba (interest paid), rishwah (corruption), gharar (uncertainty or unnecessary risk), maysir (speculation or gambling) and jahl (taking advantage of the counterparty's ignorance). This study has proposed a traditional Islamic contract namely salam that can be built as an Islamic derivative product. Although a lot of studies has been done on discussing and proposing the implementation of salam contract as the Islamic product however they are more into qualitative and law issues. Since there is lack of quantitative study of salam contract being developed, this study introduces mathematical models that can value the appropriate salam price for a commodity salam contract between two parties. In modeling the commodity salam contract, this study has modified the existing conventional derivative model and come out with some adjustments to comply with syariah rules and regulations. The cost of carry model has been chosen as the foundation to develop the commodity salam model between two parties for discrete and continuous time series. However, the conventional time value of money results from the concept of interest that is prohibited in Islam. Therefore, this study has adopted the idea of Islamic time value of money which is known as the positive time preference, in modeling the commodity salam contract between two parties for discrete and continuous time series.

  4. Uranium price formation. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1977-10-01

    The modern uranium industry came into existence in 1946. Until 1966, its sole customer was the Atomic Energy Commission, whose needs for U 3 O 8 relative to industry capacity declined over the years. The development of the commercial market after 1965 coincided with a period of excess capacity and falling nominal and real prices. Gradually in 1973 and dramatically thereafter, market conditions changed and prices rose as utilities sought larger quantities of U 3 O 8 and longer term contracts. Questions about availability of long-run supplies were raised, given the known reserve base. The response of the supply of U 3 O 8 to incentives offered first by the AEC and later by the utilities in the context of new and developing market conventions is examined. The methodology used is microeconomic analysis, qualitatively applied to the history of price formation in the market. Because the study emphasizes the implications of the history of uranium price formation for forecasting supply response, the study presents many different kinds of data and evaluates their quality and appropriateness for forecasting. A simple, very-useful framework for analyzing the history of the market for U 3 O 8 was developed and used to describe supply responses in selected important periods of the industry's development. It is concluded that the response of supply of U 3 O 8 to rising prices or to expectations of demand growth has been impressively strong. The potential reserve inventory is large enough to meet the needs for nuclear power generation through the end of this century. The price necessary to induce producers to find and produce these reserves is uncertain, partly because of problems inherent in estimating long-run supply curves and partly because recent inflation has created major uncertainties about the cost of future supplies

  5. Alcohol as international commodity; Alcool como 'commodity' internacional

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Negrao, Luiz Celso Parisi [Ministerio do Desenvolvimento, Industria e Comercio Exterior, Brasilia, DF (Brazil). Secretaria de Tecnologia Industrial]. E-mail: luiz.negrao@desenvolvimento.gov.br; Urban, Maria Lucia de Paula

    2004-12-15

    The ethanol is able to reduce the gas emissions, mainly in CO2 balance which gives a strong contribution for this fact. Using the alcohol rather than fossil fuels is a natural choice as a important renewable energy source. Also, to have the alcohol as international environmental commodity is the goal of all interested in this matter, since the entry into force the Kyoto protocol, with the Russian approval.

  6. Phosphate rock costs, prices and resources interaction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mew, M C

    2016-01-15

    This article gives the author's views and opinions as someone who has spent his working life analyzing the international phosphate sector as an independent consultant. His career spanned two price hike events in the mid-1970's and in 2008, both of which sparked considerable popular and academic interest concerning adequacy of phosphate rock resources, the impact of rising mining costs and the ability of mankind to feed future populations. An analysis of phosphate rock production costs derived from two major industry studies performed in 1983 and 2013 shows that in nominal terms, global average cash production costs increased by 27% to $38 per tonne fob mine in the 30 year period. In real terms, the global average cost of production has fallen. Despite the lack of upward pressure from increasing costs, phosphate rock market prices have shown two major spikes in the 30 years to 2013, with periods of less volatility in between. These price spike events can be seen to be related to the escalating investment cost required by new mine capacity, and as such can be expected to be repeated in future. As such, phosphate rock price volatility is likely to have more impact on food prices than rising phosphate rock production costs. However, as mining costs rise, recycling of P will also become increasingly driven by economics rather than legislation. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Heterogeneity and option pricing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Benninga, Simon; Mayshar, Joram

    2000-01-01

    An economy with agents having constant yet heterogeneous degrees of relative risk aversion prices assets as though there were a single decreasing relative risk aversion pricing representative agent. The pricing kernel has fat tails and option prices do not conform to the Black-Scholes formula.

  8. LAND PRICE MAPPING OF JABODETABEK, INDONESIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adisti Madella Elmanisa

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Land provision is one of the biggest challenges for development in urban area. Most of the available urban land will be the object of speculation to be resold at a higher price when the time is right. In Jabodetabek, where the pace of urban development is faster than other parts of Indonesia, the prices of land show an abnormal increase; they seem to rise too fast. This paper discusses the increasing land prices in Jabodetabek area and argues that the increasing land price has encourages the private developer to bank the land in the area. Based on land price survey in Jabodetabek, urban activity is moving to south Jakarta. The highest land prices were found at East Kuningan, Setiabudi, and South Jakarta. By constrast, the lowest prices were observed in Sumur Batu and Cimuning (Bantar Gebang, Bekasi.It can be concluded that the land price increase also triggered land banking practice in Jabodetabek reaching in total approximately 60% of total area of Jakarta.

  9. INTER-MARKET AND SEASONAL VARIATION IN PRICES: AN ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    iya beji

    examined its seasonal price rise and analyzed the inter-market variation in prices of maize in the study area ... farmers are in business to sell their farm products at a fair returns or profit. ... from their investments and entrepreneurship. Therefore ...

  10. ASPECTS OF REGIONAL COMPETITIVENESS THROUGH DYNAMIC PRICES OF PETROLEUM PRODUCTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniela\tENACHESCU

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents aspects regarding the dynamics of prices of petroleum products: gasoline and diesel in Romania in the period 2003(2007-2014. Both focus on relationship-price raw material and finished product by the impact of market prices. Given that the price of fuel is a key factor in economic development but also in the living of population, this paper has proposed to analyze some aspects of the dynamics of prices of petroleum products in correlation with commodity prices in a competitive market in 2003 -2014. In the analized period, price of oil barrel has a dynamics substantially influenced by the global political turbulences but also by lower oil demand due to consumption reduction, especially lately. Increases and decreases were abrupt and unpredictable in the early years of the first decade of the XXI century. Political crises in the Middle East, the economic crisis started in 2007 and especially the crisis in Ukraine and policies adopted by the EU and the US have led to extremely large fluctuations in oil prices from one period to another . This dynamic will only cover the price of petroleum products namely gazoline and diesel for vehicles.

  11. Electricity prices and power derivatives: An affine jump diffusion approach with seasonal volatility and prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nomikos, Nikos; Soldatos, Orestes; Tamvakis, Michael

    2005-01-01

    Deregulation and reforms in the electricity markets over the recent years have led to increasing volatility of electricity prices since prices in the market are now determined by the fundamental rules of supply and demand. The existence of price risk in the market leads to the increasing necessity of hedging using derivatives and the subsequent development of models to price and hedge electricity derivatives. However the non-storable nature of the market implies that ''traditional'' approaches for the pricing and hedging of commodity derivatives based on the theory of storage are not applicable to electricity markets. In this paper we propose a two-factor jump diffusion model with seasonal components in order to capture the systematic pattern in the forward curve and the volatility term structure. Our model is then calibrated for the spot and the financial contracts in the Nord Pool Exchange using Kalman filter techniques. The proposed model has several advantages. First it enables to select the risk neutral measure that best fits the term structure hence capturing the most significant distributional characteristics of both spot and forwards. Second, it explains the seasonal risk premium, and finally it provides a fit for the Volatility Term Structure. The resulting model is very promising, providing a very useful Financial Engineering tool to market participants for Risk Hedging and Derivatives Pricing in the highly volatile Power Markets. (Author)

  12. Regulation of Pharmaceutical Prices

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaiser, Ulrich; Mendez, Susan J.; Rønde, Thomas

    On April 1, 2005, Denmark changed the way references prices, a main determinant of reimbursements for pharmaceutical purchases, are calculated. The previous reference prices, which were based on average EU prices, were substituted to minimum domestic prices. Novel to the literature, we estimate...... the joint eects of this reform on prices and quantities. Prices decreased more than 26 percent due to the reform, which reduced patient and government expenditures by 3.0 percent and 5.6 percent, respectively, and producer revenues by 5.0 percent. The prices of expensive products decreased more than...

  13. Oil-Price Volatility and Macroeconomic Spillovers in Central and Eastern Europe: Evidence from a Multivariate GARCH Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hegerty Scott W.

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Recent commodity price declines have added to worldwide macroeconomic risk, which has had serious effects on both commodity exporters and manufacturers that use oil and raw materials. These effects have been keenly felt in Central and Eastern Europe—particularly in Russia, but also in European Union member states. This study tests for spillovers among commodity-price and macroeconomic volatility by applying a VAR(1-MGARCH model to monthly time series for eight CEE countries. Overall, we find that oil prices do indeed have effects throughout the region, as do spillovers among exchange rates, inflation, interest rates, and output, but that they differ from country to country—particularly when different degrees of transition and integration are considered. While oil prices have a limited impact on the currencies of Russia and Ukraine, they do make a much larger contribution to the two countries’ macroeconomic volatility than do spillovers among the other macroeconomic variables.

  14. Sellers to dominate price talks?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McLean, A.

    2000-01-01

    The last decade has been a sad one for coal exporters with only two price increases going the sellers' way, one in 1995 and the other in 1996. True, the financial hardships imposed upon the miners have resulted in improvements in all aspects of the coal chain. Mine productivity as measured in tonnes of output per employee is up, while rail and port charges and even, albeit at more modest levels, government charges, are down. However there is a widespread viewpoint that this will be the year of the price rise and, potentially, a big one. The difference in the forthcoming coal negotiations with the Japanese buyers is that, this time, the tightness of the market, both in coking and thermal coal, is demand driven

  15. Multinetwork of international trade: A commodity-specific analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barigozzi, Matteo; Fagiolo, Giorgio; Garlaschelli, Diego

    2010-04-01

    We study the topological properties of the multinetwork of commodity-specific trade relations among world countries over the 1992-2003 period, comparing them with those of the aggregate-trade network, known in the literature as the international-trade network (ITN). We show that link-weight distributions of commodity-specific networks are extremely heterogeneous and (quasi) log normality of aggregate link-weight distribution is generated as a sheer outcome of aggregation. Commodity-specific networks also display average connectivity, clustering, and centrality levels very different from their aggregate counterpart. We also find that ITN complete connectivity is mainly achieved through the presence of many weak links that keep commodity-specific networks together and that the correlation structure existing between topological statistics within each single network is fairly robust and mimics that of the aggregate network. Finally, we employ cross-commodity correlations between link weights to build hierarchies of commodities. Our results suggest that on the top of a relatively time-invariant “intrinsic” taxonomy (based on inherent between-commodity similarities), the roles played by different commodities in the ITN have become more and more dissimilar, possibly as the result of an increased trade specialization. Our approach is general and can be used to characterize any multinetwork emerging as a nontrivial aggregation of several interdependent layers.

  16. Bitcoin: not a currency-like informational commodity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bergstra, J.A.

    2014-01-01

    Six assertions concerning the status of Bitcoin are formulated and defended: (i) Bitcoin is not and will not become a currency-like informational commodity, (ii) currency-like informational commodities that aren’t currencies must be frauds, (ii) specific BTC amounts may become monetized and thus may

  17. 7 CFR 1427.22 - Commodity certificate exchanges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... commodity certificate for the marketing assistance loan collateral. This provision terminates effective... exchange the marketing assistance loan collateral, and (3) Immediately exchanging the purchased commodity certificate for the outstanding loan collateral. [67 FR 64459, Oct. 18, 2002, as amended at 73 FR 65722, Nov...

  18. Toward Improved Market Access for ASEAN Agricultural Commodities

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    ... technical report, November 2009 - May 2013. Études. Towards improved market access for ASEAN agricultural commodities : donor partnerships strategy and plan. Rapports. Towards improved market access for ASEAN agricultural commodities : project inception meeting report, Palm Garden Hotel, Putrajaya, Malaysia, ...

  19. 5 CFR 1315.13 - Commodity Credit Corporation payments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 5 Administrative Personnel 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Commodity Credit Corporation payments... PAYMENT § 1315.13 Commodity Credit Corporation payments. As provided in § 1315.1(d), the provisions of... Credit Corporation (CCC) pursuant to Section 4(h) of the Act of June 29, 1948 (15 U.S.C. 714b(h)) (“CCC...

  20. One TV, One Price?

    OpenAIRE

    Jean Imbs; Haroon Mumtaz; Morten O. Ravn; Hélène Rey

    2009-01-01

    We use a unique dataset on television prices across European countries and regions to investigate the sources of differences in price levels. Our findings are as follows: (i) Quality is a crucial determinant of price differences. Even in an integrated economic zone as Europe, rich economies tend to consume higher quality goods. This effect accounts for the lion’s share of international price dispersion. (ii) Sizable international price differentials subsist even for the same television sets. ...