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Sample records for rigorously evaluate risks

  1. Experimental evaluation of rigor mortis. V. Effect of various temperatures on the evolution of rigor mortis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krompecher, T

    1981-01-01

    Objective measurements were carried out to study the evolution of rigor mortis on rats at various temperatures. Our experiments showed that: (1) at 6 degrees C rigor mortis reaches full development between 48 and 60 hours post mortem, and is resolved at 168 hours post mortem; (2) at 24 degrees C rigor mortis reaches full development at 5 hours post mortem, and is resolved at 16 hours post mortem; (3) at 37 degrees C rigor mortis reaches full development at 3 hours post mortem, and is resolved at 6 hours post mortem; (4) the intensity of rigor mortis grows with increase in temperature (difference between values obtained at 24 degrees C and 37 degrees C); and (5) and 6 degrees C a "cold rigidity" was found, in addition to and independent of rigor mortis.

  2. Evaluating Rigor in Qualitative Methodology and Research Dissemination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trainor, Audrey A.; Graue, Elizabeth

    2014-01-01

    Despite previous and successful attempts to outline general criteria for rigor, researchers in special education have debated the application of rigor criteria, the significance or importance of small n research, the purpose of interpretivist approaches, and the generalizability of qualitative empirical results. Adding to these complications, the…

  3. Building an Evidence Base to Inform Interventions for Pregnant and Parenting Adolescents: A Call for Rigorous Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burrus, Barri B.; Scott, Alicia Richmond

    2012-01-01

    Adolescent parents and their children are at increased risk for adverse short- and long-term health and social outcomes. Effective interventions are needed to support these young families. We studied the evidence base and found a dearth of rigorously evaluated programs. Strategies from successful interventions are needed to inform both intervention design and policies affecting these adolescents. The lack of rigorous evaluations may be attributable to inadequate emphasis on and sufficient funding for evaluation, as well as to challenges encountered by program evaluators working with this population. More rigorous program evaluations are urgently needed to provide scientifically sound guidance for programming and policy decisions. Evaluation lessons learned have implications for other vulnerable populations. PMID:22897541

  4. Experimental evaluation of rigor mortis. VI. Effect of various causes of death on the evolution of rigor mortis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krompecher, T; Bergerioux, C; Brandt-Casadevall, C; Gujer, H R

    1983-07-01

    The evolution of rigor mortis was studied in cases of nitrogen asphyxia, drowning and strangulation, as well as in fatal intoxications due to strychnine, carbon monoxide and curariform drugs, using a modified method of measurement. Our experiments demonstrated that: (1) Strychnine intoxication hastens the onset and passing of rigor mortis. (2) CO intoxication delays the resolution of rigor mortis. (3) The intensity of rigor may vary depending upon the cause of death. (4) If the stage of rigidity is to be used to estimate the time of death, it is necessary: (a) to perform a succession of objective measurements of rigor mortis intensity; and (b) to verify the eventual presence of factors that could play a role in the modification of its development.

  5. Experimental evaluation of rigor mortis. VII. Effect of ante- and post-mortem electrocution on the evolution of rigor mortis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krompecher, T; Bergerioux, C

    1988-01-01

    The influence of electrocution on the evolution of rigor mortis was studied on rats. Our experiments showed that: (1) Electrocution hastens the onset of rigor mortis. After an electrocution of 90 s, a complete rigor develops already 1 h post-mortem (p.m.) compared to 5 h p.m. for the controls. (2) Electrocution hastens the passing of rigor mortis. After an electrocution of 90 s, the first significant decrease occurs at 3 h p.m. (8 h p.m. in the controls). (3) These modifications in rigor mortis evolution are less pronounced in the limbs not directly touched by the electric current. (4) In case of post-mortem electrocution, the changes are slightly less pronounced, the resistance is higher and the absorbed energy is lower as compared with the ante-mortem electrocution cases. The results are completed by two practical observations on human electrocution cases.

  6. Study designs for identifying risk compensation behavior among users of biomedical HIV prevention technologies: balancing methodological rigor and research ethics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Underhill, Kristen

    2013-10-01

    The growing evidence base for biomedical HIV prevention interventions - such as oral pre-exposure prophylaxis, microbicides, male circumcision, treatment as prevention, and eventually prevention vaccines - has given rise to concerns about the ways in which users of these biomedical products may adjust their HIV risk behaviors based on the perception that they are prevented from infection. Known as risk compensation, this behavioral adjustment draws on the theory of "risk homeostasis," which has previously been applied to phenomena as diverse as Lyme disease vaccination, insurance mandates, and automobile safety. Little rigorous evidence exists to answer risk compensation concerns in the biomedical HIV prevention literature, in part because the field has not systematically evaluated the study designs available for testing these behaviors. The goals of this Commentary are to explain the origins of risk compensation behavior in risk homeostasis theory, to reframe risk compensation as a testable response to the perception of reduced risk, and to assess the methodological rigor and ethical justification of study designs aiming to isolate risk compensation responses. Although the most rigorous methodological designs for assessing risk compensation behavior may be unavailable due to ethical flaws, several strategies can help investigators identify potential risk compensation behavior during Phase II, Phase III, and Phase IV testing of new technologies. Where concerns arise regarding risk compensation behavior, empirical evidence about the incidence, types, and extent of these behavioral changes can illuminate opportunities to better support the users of new HIV prevention strategies. This Commentary concludes by suggesting a new way to conceptualize risk compensation behavior in the HIV prevention context. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Single-case synthesis tools I: Comparing tools to evaluate SCD quality and rigor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zimmerman, Kathleen N; Ledford, Jennifer R; Severini, Katherine E; Pustejovsky, James E; Barton, Erin E; Lloyd, Blair P

    2018-03-03

    Tools for evaluating the quality and rigor of single case research designs (SCD) are often used when conducting SCD syntheses. Preferred components include evaluations of design features related to the internal validity of SCD to obtain quality and/or rigor ratings. Three tools for evaluating the quality and rigor of SCD (Council for Exceptional Children, What Works Clearinghouse, and Single-Case Analysis and Design Framework) were compared to determine if conclusions regarding the effectiveness of antecedent sensory-based interventions for young children changed based on choice of quality evaluation tool. Evaluation of SCD quality differed across tools, suggesting selection of quality evaluation tools impacts evaluation findings. Suggestions for selecting an appropriate quality and rigor assessment tool are provided and across-tool conclusions are drawn regarding the quality and rigor of studies. Finally, authors provide guidance for using quality evaluations in conjunction with outcome analyses when conducting syntheses of interventions evaluated in the context of SCD. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Experimental evaluation of rigor mortis IX. The influence of the breaking (mechanical solution) on the development of rigor mortis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krompecher, Thomas; Gilles, André; Brandt-Casadevall, Conception; Mangin, Patrice

    2008-04-07

    Objective measurements were carried out to study the possible re-establishment of rigor mortis on rats after "breaking" (mechanical solution). Our experiments showed that: *Cadaveric rigidity can re-establish after breaking. *A significant rigidity can reappear if the breaking occurs before the process is complete. *Rigidity will be considerably weaker after the breaking. *The time course of the intensity does not change in comparison to the controls: --the re-establishment begins immediately after the breaking; --maximal values are reached at the same time as in the controls; --the course of the resolution is the same as in the controls.

  9. Evaluation of physical dimension changes as nondestructive measurements for monitoring rigor mortis development in broiler muscles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cavitt, L C; Sams, A R

    2003-07-01

    Studies were conducted to develop a non-destructive method for monitoring the rate of rigor mortis development in poultry and to evaluate the effectiveness of electrical stimulation (ES). In the first study, 36 male broilers in each of two trials were processed at 7 wk of age. After being bled, half of the birds received electrical stimulation (400 to 450 V, 400 to 450 mA, for seven pulses of 2 s on and 1 s off), and the other half were designated as controls. At 0.25 and 1.5 h postmortem (PM), carcasses were evaluated for the angles of the shoulder, elbow, and wing tip and the distance between the elbows. Breast fillets were harvested at 1.5 h PM (after chilling) from all carcasses. Fillet samples were excised and frozen for later measurement of pH and R-value, and the remainder of each fillet was held on ice until 24 h postmortem. Shear value and pH means were significantly lower, but R-value means were higher (P rigor mortis by ES. The physical dimensions of the shoulder and elbow changed (P rigor mortis development and with ES. These results indicate that physical measurements of the wings maybe useful as a nondestructive indicator of rigor development and for monitoring the effectiveness of ES. In the second study, 60 male broilers in each of two trials were processed at 7 wk of age. At 0.25, 1.5, 3.0, and 6.0 h PM, carcasses were evaluated for the distance between the elbows. At each time point, breast fillets were harvested from each carcass. Fillet samples were excised and frozen for later measurement of pH and sacromere length, whereas the remainder of each fillet was held on ice until 24 h PM. Shear value and pH means (P rigor mortis development. Elbow distance decreased (P rigor development and was correlated (P rigor mortis development in broiler carcasses.

  10. The MIXED framework: A novel approach to evaluating mixed-methods rigor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eckhardt, Ann L; DeVon, Holli A

    2017-10-01

    Evaluation of rigor in mixed-methods (MM) research is a persistent challenge due to the combination of inconsistent philosophical paradigms, the use of multiple research methods which require different skill sets, and the need to combine research at different points in the research process. Researchers have proposed a variety of ways to thoroughly evaluate MM research, but each method fails to provide a framework that is useful for the consumer of research. In contrast, the MIXED framework is meant to bridge the gap between an academic exercise and practical assessment of a published work. The MIXED framework (methods, inference, expertise, evaluation, and design) borrows from previously published frameworks to create a useful tool for the evaluation of a published study. The MIXED framework uses an experimental eight-item scale that allows for comprehensive integrated assessment of MM rigor in published manuscripts. Mixed methods are becoming increasingly prevalent in nursing and healthcare research requiring researchers and consumers to address issues unique to MM such as evaluation of rigor. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  11. Unmet Need: Improving mHealth Evaluation Rigor to Build the Evidence Base.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mookherji, Sangeeta; Mehl, Garrett; Kaonga, Nadi; Mechael, Patricia

    2015-01-01

    mHealth-the use of mobile technologies for health-is a growing element of health system activity globally, but evaluation of those activities remains quite scant, and remains an important knowledge gap for advancing mHealth activities. In 2010, the World Health Organization and Columbia University implemented a small-scale survey to generate preliminary data on evaluation activities used by mHealth initiatives. The authors describe self-reported data from 69 projects in 29 countries. The majority (74%) reported some sort of evaluation activity, primarily nonexperimental in design (62%). The authors developed a 6-point scale of evaluation rigor comprising information on use of comparison groups, sample size calculation, data collection timing, and randomization. The mean score was low (2.4); half (47%) were conducting evaluations with a minimum threshold (4+) of rigor, indicating use of a comparison group, while less than 20% had randomized the mHealth intervention. The authors were unable to assess whether the rigor score was appropriate for the type of mHealth activity being evaluated. What was clear was that although most data came from mHealth projects pilots aimed for scale-up, few had designed evaluations that would support crucial decisions on whether to scale up and how. Whether the mHealth activity is a strategy to improve health or a tool for achieving intermediate outcomes that should lead to better health, mHealth evaluations must be improved to generate robust evidence for cost-effectiveness assessment and to allow for accurate identification of the contribution of mHealth initiatives to health systems strengthening and the impact on actual health outcomes.

  12. Experimental evaluation of rigor mortis. III. Comparative study of the evolution of rigor mortis in different sized muscle groups in rats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krompecher, T; Fryc, O

    1978-01-01

    The use of new methods and an appropriate apparatus has allowed us to make successive measurements of rigor mortis and a study of its evolution in the rat. By a comparative examination on the front and hind limbs, we have determined the following: (1) The muscular mass of the hind limbs is 2.89 times greater than that of the front limbs. (2) In the initial phase rigor mortis is more pronounced in the front limbs. (3) The front and hind limbs reach maximum rigor mortis at the same time and this state is maintained for 2 hours. (4) Resolution of rigor mortis is accelerated in the front limbs during the initial phase, but both front and hind limbs reach complete resolution at the same time.

  13. A Development of Advanced Rigorous 2 Step System for the High Resolution Residual Dose Evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Do Hyun; Kim, Jong Woo; Kim, Jea Hyun; Lee, Jae Yong; Shin, Chang Ho [Hanyang Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Song Hyun [Kyoto University, Sennan (Japan)

    2016-10-15

    In these days, an activation problem such as residual radiation is one of the important issues. The activated devices and structures can emit the residual radiation. Therefore, the activation should be properly analyzed to make a plan for design, operation, and decontamination of nuclear facilities. For activation calculation, Rigorous 2 Step (R2S) method is introduced as following strategy: (1) the particle transport calculation is performed for an object geometry to get particle spectra and total fluxes; (2) inventories of each cell are calculated by using flux information according to irradiation and decay history; (3) the residual gamma distribution was evaluated by transport code, if needed. This scheme is based on cell calculation of used geometry. In this method, the particle spectra and total fluxes are obtained by mesh tally for activation calculation. It is useful to reduce the effects of gradient flux information. Nevertheless, several limitations are known as follows: Firstly, high relative error of spectra, when lots of meshes were used; secondly, different flux information from spectrum of void in mesh-tally. To calculate high resolution residual dose, several method are developed such as R2Smesh and MCR2S unstructured mesh. The R2Smesh method products better efficiency for obtaining neutron spectra by using fine/coarse mesh. Also, the MCR2S unstructured mesh can effectively separate void spectrum. In this study, the AR2S system was developed to combine the features of those mesh based R2S method. To confirm the AR2S system, the simple activation problem was evaluated and compared with R2S method using same division. Those results have good agreement within 0.83 %. Therefore, it is expected that the AR2S system can properly estimate an activation problem.

  14. Useful, Used, and Peer Approved: The Importance of Rigor and Accessibility in Postsecondary Research and Evaluation. WISCAPE Viewpoints

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaade, Elizabeth; McCready, Bo

    2012-01-01

    Traditionally, researchers, policymakers, and practitioners have perceived a tension between rigor and accessibility in quantitative research and evaluation in postsecondary education. However, this study indicates that both producers and consumers of these studies value high-quality work and clear findings that can reach multiple audiences. The…

  15. Beyond the RCT: Integrating Rigor and Relevance to Evaluate the Outcomes of Domestic Violence Programs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodman, Lisa A.; Epstein, Deborah; Sullivan, Cris M.

    2018-01-01

    Programs for domestic violence (DV) victims and their families have grown exponentially over the last four decades. The evidence demonstrating the extent of their effectiveness, however, often has been criticized as stemming from studies lacking scientific rigor. A core reason for this critique is the widespread belief that credible evidence can…

  16. The Society for Implementation Research Collaboration Instrument Review Project: a methodology to promote rigorous evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Cara C; Stanick, Cameo F; Martinez, Ruben G; Weiner, Bryan J; Kim, Mimi; Barwick, Melanie; Comtois, Katherine A

    2015-01-08

    science. Despite numerous constructs having greater than 20 available instruments, which implies saturation, preliminary results suggest that few instruments stem from gold standard development procedures. We anticipate identifying few high-quality, psychometrically sound instruments once our evidence-based assessment rating criteria have been applied. The results of this methodology may enhance the rigor of implementation science evaluations by systematically facilitating access to psychometrically validated instruments and identifying where further instrument development is needed.

  17. Experimental evaluation of rigor mortis. VIII. Estimation of time since death by repeated measurements of the intensity of rigor mortis on rats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krompecher, T

    1994-10-21

    The development of the intensity of rigor mortis was monitored in nine groups of rats. The measurements were initiated after 2, 4, 5, 6, 8, 12, 15, 24, and 48 h post mortem (p.m.) and lasted 5-9 h, which ideally should correspond to the usual procedure after the discovery of a corpse. The experiments were carried out at an ambient temperature of 24 degrees C. Measurements initiated early after death resulted in curves with a rising portion, a plateau, and a descending slope. Delaying the initial measurement translated into shorter rising portions, and curves initiated 8 h p.m. or later are comprised of a plateau and/or a downward slope only. Three different phases were observed suggesting simple rules that can help estimate the time since death: (1) if an increase in intensity was found, the initial measurements were conducted not later than 5 h p.m.; (2) if only a decrease in intensity was observed, the initial measurements were conducted not earlier than 7 h p.m.; and (3) at 24 h p.m., the resolution is complete, and no further changes in intensity should occur. Our results clearly demonstrate that repeated measurements of the intensity of rigor mortis allow a more accurate estimation of the time since death of the experimental animals than the single measurement method used earlier. A critical review of the literature on the estimation of time since death on the basis of objective measurements of the intensity of rigor mortis is also presented.

  18. Why so many "rigorous" evaluations fail to identify unintended consequences of development programs: How mixed methods can contribute.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bamberger, Michael; Tarsilla, Michele; Hesse-Biber, Sharlene

    2016-04-01

    Many widely-used impact evaluation designs, including randomized control trials (RCTs) and quasi-experimental designs (QEDs), frequently fail to detect what are often quite serious unintended consequences of development programs. This seems surprising as experienced planners and evaluators are well aware that unintended consequences frequently occur. Most evaluation designs are intended to determine whether there is credible evidence (statistical, theory-based or narrative) that programs have achieved their intended objectives and the logic of many evaluation designs, even those that are considered the most "rigorous," does not permit the identification of outcomes that were not specified in the program design. We take the example of RCTs as they are considered by many to be the most rigorous evaluation designs. We present a numbers of cases to illustrate how infusing RCTs with a mixed-methods approach (sometimes called an "RCT+" design) can strengthen the credibility of these designs and can also capture important unintended consequences. We provide a Mixed Methods Evaluation Framework that identifies 9 ways in which UCs can occur, and we apply this framework to two of the case studies. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Rigorous Performance Evaluation of Smartphone GNSS/IMU Sensors for ITS Applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vassilis Gikas

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available With the rapid growth in smartphone technologies and improvement in their navigation sensors, an increasing amount of location information is now available, opening the road to the provision of new Intelligent Transportation System (ITS services. Current smartphone devices embody miniaturized Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS, Inertial Measurement Unit (IMU and other sensors capable of providing user position, velocity and attitude. However, it is hard to characterize their actual positioning and navigation performance capabilities due to the disparate sensor and software technologies adopted among manufacturers and the high influence of environmental conditions, and therefore, a unified certification process is missing. This paper presents the analysis results obtained from the assessment of two modern smartphones regarding their positioning accuracy (i.e., precision and trueness capabilities (i.e., potential and limitations based on a practical but rigorous methodological approach. Our investigation relies on the results of several vehicle tracking (i.e., cruising and maneuvering tests realized through comparing smartphone obtained trajectories and kinematic parameters to those derived using a high-end GNSS/IMU system and advanced filtering techniques. Performance testing is undertaken for the HTC One S (Android and iPhone 5s (iOS. Our findings indicate that the deviation of the smartphone locations from ground truth (trueness deteriorates by a factor of two in obscured environments compared to those derived in open sky conditions. Moreover, it appears that iPhone 5s produces relatively smaller and less dispersed error values compared to those computed for HTC One S. Also, the navigation solution of the HTC One S appears to adapt faster to changes in environmental conditions, suggesting a somewhat different data filtering approach for the iPhone 5s. Testing the accuracy of the accelerometer and gyroscope sensors for a number of

  20. Cost evaluation of cellulase enzyme for industrial-scale cellulosic ethanol production based on rigorous Aspen Plus modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Gang; Zhang, Jian; Bao, Jie

    2016-01-01

    Cost reduction on cellulase enzyme usage has been the central effort in the commercialization of fuel ethanol production from lignocellulose biomass. Therefore, establishing an accurate evaluation method on cellulase enzyme cost is crucially important to support the health development of the future biorefinery industry. Currently, the cellulase cost evaluation methods were complicated and various controversial or even conflict results were presented. To give a reliable evaluation on this important topic, a rigorous analysis based on the Aspen Plus flowsheet simulation in the commercial scale ethanol plant was proposed in this study. The minimum ethanol selling price (MESP) was used as the indicator to show the impacts of varying enzyme supply modes, enzyme prices, process parameters, as well as enzyme loading on the enzyme cost. The results reveal that the enzyme cost drives the cellulosic ethanol price below the minimum profit point when the enzyme is purchased from the current industrial enzyme market. An innovative production of cellulase enzyme such as on-site enzyme production should be explored and tested in the industrial scale to yield an economically sound enzyme supply for the future cellulosic ethanol production.

  1. Which Interventions Have the Greatest Effect on Student Learning in Sub-Saharan Africa? "A Meta-Analysis of Rigorous Impact Evaluations"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conn, Katharine

    2014-01-01

    In the last three decades, there has been a large increase in the number of rigorous experimental and quasi-experimental evaluations of education programs in developing countries. These impact evaluations have taken place all over the globe, including a large number in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The fact that the developing world is socially and…

  2. Risk estimation and evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ferguson, R A.D.

    1982-10-01

    Risk assessment involves subjectivity, which makes objective decision making difficult in the nuclear power debate. The author reviews the process and uncertainties of estimating risks as well as the potential for misinterpretation and misuse. Risk data from a variety of aspects cannot be summed because the significance of different risks is not comparable. A method for including political, social, moral, psychological, and economic factors, environmental impacts, catastrophes, and benefits in the evaluation process could involve a broad base of lay and technical consultants, who would explain and argue their evaluation positions. 15 references. (DCK)

  3. Conducting rigorous research with subgroups of at-risk youth: lessons learned from a teen pregnancy prevention project in Alaska

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kathryn Hohman-Billmeier

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available In 2010, Alaska Department of Health and Social Services (DHSS received federal funding to test an evidence-based teen pregnancy prevention program. The grant required a major modification to an existing program and a randomized control trial (RCT to test its effectiveness. As the major modifications, Alaska used peer educators instead of adults to deliver the program to youth aged 14–19 instead of the original curriculum intended age range of 12–14. Cultural and approach adaptations were included as well. After 4 years of implementation and data collection, the sample was too small to provide statistically significant results. The lack of findings gave no information about the modification, nor any explanation of how the curriculum was received, or reasons for the small sample. This paper reports on a case study follow-up to the RCT to better understand outcome and implementation results. For this study, researchers reviewed project documents and interviewed peer educators, state and local staff, and evaluators. Three themes emerged from the data: (a the professional growth of peer educators and development of peer education, (b difficulties resulting from curriculum content, especially for subpopulations of sexually active youth, youth identified as lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, queer, intersex and/or asexual, pregnant, and parenting youth and (c the appropriateness of an RCT with subpopulations of at-risk youth. Three recommendations emerged from the case study. First, including as many stakeholders as possible in the program and evaluation design phases is essential, and must be supported by appropriate funding streams and training. Second, there must be recognition of the multiple small subpopulations found in Alaska when adapting programs designed for a larger and more homogeneous population. Third, RCTs may not be appropriate for all population subgroups.

  4. Conducting rigorous research with subgroups of at-risk youth: lessons learned from a teen pregnancy prevention project in Alaska.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hohman-Billmeier, Kathryn; Nye, Margaret; Martin, Stephanie

    2016-01-01

    In 2010, Alaska Department of Health and Social Services (DHSS) received federal funding to test an evidence-based teen pregnancy prevention program. The grant required a major modification to an existing program and a randomized control trial (RCT) to test its effectiveness. As the major modifications, Alaska used peer educators instead of adults to deliver the program to youth aged 14-19 instead of the original curriculum intended age range of 12-14. Cultural and approach adaptations were included as well. After 4 years of implementation and data collection, the sample was too small to provide statistically significant results. The lack of findings gave no information about the modification, nor any explanation of how the curriculum was received, or reasons for the small sample. This paper reports on a case study follow-up to the RCT to better understand outcome and implementation results. For this study, researchers reviewed project documents and interviewed peer educators, state and local staff, and evaluators. Three themes emerged from the data: (a) the professional growth of peer educators and development of peer education, (b) difficulties resulting from curriculum content, especially for subpopulations of sexually active youth, youth identified as lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, queer, intersex and/or asexual, pregnant, and parenting youth and (c) the appropriateness of an RCT with subpopulations of at-risk youth. Three recommendations emerged from the case study. First, including as many stakeholders as possible in the program and evaluation design phases is essential, and must be supported by appropriate funding streams and training. Second, there must be recognition of the multiple small subpopulations found in Alaska when adapting programs designed for a larger and more homogeneous population. Third, RCTs may not be appropriate for all population subgroups.

  5. Screening Risk Evaluation methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hopper, K.M.

    1994-01-01

    The Screening Risk Evaluation (SRE) Guidance document is a set of guidelines provided for the uniform implementation of SREs performed on D ampersand D facilities. These guidelines are designed specifically for the completion of the second (semi-quantitative screening) phase of the D ampersand D Risk-Based Process. The SRE Guidance produces screening risk scores reflecting levels of risk through the use of risk ranking indices. Five types of possible risk are calculated from the SRE: current releases, worker exposures, future releases, physical hazards, and criticality. The Current Release Index (CRI) calculates the risk to human health and the environment from ongoing or probable releases within a one year time period. The Worker Exposure Index (WEI) calculates the risk to workers, occupants, and visitors in D ampersand D facilities of contaminant exposure. The Future Release Index (FRI) calculates the risk of future releases of contaminants, after one year, to human health and the environment. The Physical Hazards Index (PHI) calculates the risk-to human health due to factors other than that of contaminants. The index of Criticality is approached as a modifying factor to the entire SRE, due to the fact that criticality issues are strictly regulated under DOE. Screening risk results will be tabulated in matrix form and Total Risk will be calculated (weighted equation) to produce a score on which to base early action recommendations. Other recommendations from the screening risk scores will be made based either on individual index scores or from reweighted Total Risk calculations. All recommendations based on the SRE will be made based on a combination of screening risk scores, decision drivers, and other considerations, determined on a project by project basis. The SRE is the first and most important step in the overall D ampersand D project level decision making process

  6. Modified risk evaluation method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Udell, C.J.; Tilden, J.A.; Toyooka, R.T.

    1993-08-01

    The purpose of this paper is to provide a structured and cost-oriented process to determine risks associated with nuclear material and other security interests. Financial loss is a continuing concern for US Department of Energy contractors. In this paper risk is equated with uncertainty of cost impacts to material assets or human resources. The concept provides a method for assessing the effectiveness of an integrated protection system, which includes operations, safety, emergency preparedness, and safeguards and security. The concept is suitable for application to sabotage evaluations. The protection of assets is based on risk associated with cost impacts to assets and the potential for undesirable events. This will allow managers to establish protection priorities in terms of the cost and the potential for the event, given the current level of protection

  7. Risk assessment and risk evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Niehaus, F.

    1978-01-01

    With the help of results of investigations and model calculations the risk of nuclear energy in routine operation is shown. In this context it is pointed out that the excellent operation results of reactors all over the world have led to the acceptability of risks from local loads no longer being in question. The attention of radiation protection is therefore focused on the emissions of long-living isotopes which collect in the atmosphere. With LWRs the risk of accidents is so minimal that statistical data is, and never will be available. One has to therefore fall back upon the so-called fault tree analyses. On the subject of risk evalution the author referred to a poll in Austria. From the result of this investigation one might conclude that nuclear energy serves as a crystallization point for a discussion of varying concepts for future development. More attention should be paid to this aspect from both sides, in order to objectify the further expansion of this source of energy. (orig./HP) [de

  8. Using Abductive Research Logic: "The Logic of Discovery", to Construct a Rigorous Explanation of Amorphous Evaluation Findings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levin-Rozalis, Miri

    2010-01-01

    Background: Two kinds of research logic prevail in scientific research: deductive research logic and inductive research logic. However, both fail in the field of evaluation, especially evaluation conducted in unfamiliar environments. Purpose: In this article I wish to suggest the application of a research logic--"abduction"--"the logic of…

  9. Scientific rigor through videogames.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Treuille, Adrien; Das, Rhiju

    2014-11-01

    Hypothesis-driven experimentation - the scientific method - can be subverted by fraud, irreproducibility, and lack of rigorous predictive tests. A robust solution to these problems may be the 'massive open laboratory' model, recently embodied in the internet-scale videogame EteRNA. Deploying similar platforms throughout biology could enforce the scientific method more broadly. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Collaborative Research in Child Welfare: A Rationale for Rigorous Participatory Evaluation Designs to Promote Sustained Systems Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins-Camargo, Crystal; Shackelford, Kim; Kelly, Michael; Martin-Galijatovic, Ramie

    2011-01-01

    Expansion of the child welfare evidence base is a major challenge. The field must establish how organizational systems and practice techniques yield outcomes for children and families. Needed research must be grounded in practice and must engage practitioners and administrators via participatory evaluation. The extent to which successful practices…

  11. Statistical mechanics rigorous results

    CERN Document Server

    Ruelle, David

    1999-01-01

    This classic book marks the beginning of an era of vigorous mathematical progress in equilibrium statistical mechanics. Its treatment of the infinite system limit has not been superseded, and the discussion of thermodynamic functions and states remains basic for more recent work. The conceptual foundation provided by the Rigorous Results remains invaluable for the study of the spectacular developments of statistical mechanics in the second half of the 20th century.

  12. Risk evaluation for structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Freudenthal, A.M.; Schueller, G.I.

    1976-01-01

    The basic principles of the risk analysis, which is based on classical statistics is discussed. The significance of the Asymptotic (Extreme Value) distributions as well as the method of basing the level of acceptable risk on economical optimization procedures is pointed out. The application of the risk analysis to special type structures such as fixed offshore platforms, television towers, reactor containments and the reliability of reactor components under creep and fatigue load is elaborated by carrying out numerical examples. (orig./HP) [de

  13. A systematic review of the use of theory in the design of guideline dissemination and implementation strategies and interpretation of the results of rigorous evaluations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grimshaw Jeremy M

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background There is growing interest in the use of cognitive, behavioural, and organisational theories in implementation research. However, the extent of use of theory in implementation research is uncertain. Methods We conducted a systematic review of use of theory in 235 rigorous evaluations of guideline dissemination and implementation studies published between 1966 and 1998. Use of theory was classified according to type of use (explicitly theory based, some conceptual basis, and theoretical construct used and stage of use (choice/design of intervention, process/mediators/moderators, and post hoc/explanation. Results Fifty-three of 235 studies (22.5% were judged to have employed theories, including 14 studies that explicitly used theory. The majority of studies (n = 42 used only one theory; the maximum number of theories employed by any study was three. Twenty-five different theories were used. A small number of theories accounted for the majority of theory use including PRECEDE (Predisposing, Reinforcing, and Enabling Constructs in Educational Diagnosis and Evaluation, diffusion of innovations, information overload and social marketing (academic detailing. Conclusions There was poor justification of choice of intervention and use of theory in implementation research in the identified studies until at least 1998. Future research should explicitly identify the justification for the interventions. Greater use of explicit theory to understand barriers, design interventions, and explore mediating pathways and moderators is needed to advance the science of implementation research.

  14. A systematic review of the use of theory in the design of guideline dissemination and implementation strategies and interpretation of the results of rigorous evaluations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davies, Philippa; Walker, Anne E; Grimshaw, Jeremy M

    2010-02-09

    There is growing interest in the use of cognitive, behavioural, and organisational theories in implementation research. However, the extent of use of theory in implementation research is uncertain. We conducted a systematic review of use of theory in 235 rigorous evaluations of guideline dissemination and implementation studies published between 1966 and 1998. Use of theory was classified according to type of use (explicitly theory based, some conceptual basis, and theoretical construct used) and stage of use (choice/design of intervention, process/mediators/moderators, and post hoc/explanation). Fifty-three of 235 studies (22.5%) were judged to have employed theories, including 14 studies that explicitly used theory. The majority of studies (n = 42) used only one theory; the maximum number of theories employed by any study was three. Twenty-five different theories were used. A small number of theories accounted for the majority of theory use including PRECEDE (Predisposing, Reinforcing, and Enabling Constructs in Educational Diagnosis and Evaluation), diffusion of innovations, information overload and social marketing (academic detailing). There was poor justification of choice of intervention and use of theory in implementation research in the identified studies until at least 1998. Future research should explicitly identify the justification for the interventions. Greater use of explicit theory to understand barriers, design interventions, and explore mediating pathways and moderators is needed to advance the science of implementation research.

  15. Putrefactive rigor: apparent rigor mortis due to gas distension.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gill, James R; Landi, Kristen

    2011-09-01

    Artifacts due to decomposition may cause confusion for the initial death investigator, leading to an incorrect suspicion of foul play. Putrefaction is a microorganism-driven process that results in foul odor, skin discoloration, purge, and bloating. Various decompositional gases including methane, hydrogen sulfide, carbon dioxide, and hydrogen will cause the body to bloat. We describe 3 instances of putrefactive gas distension (bloating) that produced the appearance of inappropriate rigor, so-called putrefactive rigor. These gases may distend the body to an extent that the extremities extend and lose contact with their underlying support surface. The medicolegal investigator must recognize that this is not true rigor mortis and the body was not necessarily moved after death for this gravity-defying position to occur.

  16. Controversy and debate on clinical genomics sequencing-paper 1: genomics is not exceptional: rigorous evaluations are necessary for clinical applications of genomic sequencing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Brenda J; Miller, Fiona Alice; Rousseau, François

    2017-12-01

    Next generation genomic sequencing (NGS) technologies-whole genome and whole exome sequencing-are now cheap enough to be within the grasp of many health care organizations. To many, NGS is symbolic of cutting edge health care, offering the promise of "precision" and "personalized" medicine. Historically, research and clinical application has been a two-way street in clinical genetics: research often driven directly by the desire to understand and try to solve immediate clinical problems affecting real, identifiable patients and families, accompanied by a low threshold of willingness to apply research-driven interventions without resort to formal empirical evaluations. However, NGS technologies are not simple substitutes for older technologies and need careful evaluation for use as screening, diagnostic, or prognostic tools. We have concerns across three areas. First, at the moment, analytic validity is unknown because technical platforms are not yet stable, laboratory quality assurance programs are in their infancy, and data interpretation capabilities are badly underdeveloped. Second, clinical validity of genomic findings for patient populations without pre-existing high genetic risk is doubtful, as most clinical experience with NGS technologies relates to patients with a high prior likelihood of a genetic etiology. Finally, we are concerned that proponents argue not only for clinically driven approaches to assessing a patient's genome, but also for seeking out variants associated with unrelated conditions or susceptibilities-so-called "secondary targets"-this is screening on a genomic scale. We argue that clinical uses of genomic sequencing should remain limited to specialist and research settings, that screening for secondary findings in clinical testing should be limited to the maximum extent possible, and that the benefits, harms, and economic implications of their routine use be systematically evaluated. All stakeholders have a responsibility to ensure that

  17. Mathematical Rigor in Introductory Physics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vandyke, Michael; Bassichis, William

    2011-10-01

    Calculus-based introductory physics courses intended for future engineers and physicists are often designed and taught in the same fashion as those intended for students of other disciplines. A more mathematically rigorous curriculum should be more appropriate and, ultimately, more beneficial for the student in his or her future coursework. This work investigates the effects of mathematical rigor on student understanding of introductory mechanics. Using a series of diagnostic tools in conjunction with individual student course performance, a statistical analysis will be performed to examine student learning of introductory mechanics and its relation to student understanding of the underlying calculus.

  18. Hazard evaluation and risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fritzsche, A.F.

    1986-01-01

    The eigth chapter deals with the actual handling of hazards. The principal issue concerns man's behaviour towards hazards as an individual formerly and today; the evaluation of expected results of both a positive and a negative kind as determined by the individual's values which may differ and vary greatly from one individual to the next. The evaluation of benefit and hazard as well as the risk management resulting from decision-taking are political processes in the democratic state. Formal decision-taking tools play a major role in this process which concerns such central issues like who will participate; how the decision is arrived at; the participation of citizens; specialist knowledge and participation of the general public. (HSCH) [de

  19. A case of instantaneous rigor?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pirch, J; Schulz, Y; Klintschar, M

    2013-09-01

    The question of whether instantaneous rigor mortis (IR), the hypothetic sudden occurrence of stiffening of the muscles upon death, actually exists has been controversially debated over the last 150 years. While modern German forensic literature rejects this concept, the contemporary British literature is more willing to embrace it. We present the case of a young woman who suffered from diabetes and who was found dead in an upright standing position with back and shoulders leaned against a punchbag and a cupboard. Rigor mortis was fully established, livor mortis was strong and according to the position the body was found in. After autopsy and toxicological analysis, it was stated that death most probably occurred due to a ketoacidotic coma with markedly increased values of glucose and lactate in the cerebrospinal fluid as well as acetone in blood and urine. Whereas the position of the body is most unusual, a detailed analysis revealed that it is a stable position even without rigor mortis. Therefore, this case does not further support the controversial concept of IR.

  20. Credit Risk Evaluation : Modeling - Analysis - Management

    OpenAIRE

    Wehrspohn, Uwe

    2002-01-01

    An analysis and further development of the building blocks of modern credit risk management: -Definitions of default -Estimation of default probabilities -Exposures -Recovery Rates -Pricing -Concepts of portfolio dependence -Time horizons for risk calculations -Quantification of portfolio risk -Estimation of risk measures -Portfolio analysis and portfolio improvement -Evaluation and comparison of credit risk models -Analytic portfolio loss distributions The thesis contributes to the evaluatio...

  1. Evaluating Grayware Characteristics and Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhongqiang Chen

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Grayware encyclopedias collect known species to provide information for incident analysis, however, the lack of categorization and generalization capability renders them ineffective in the development of defense strategies against clustered strains. A grayware categorization framework is therefore proposed here to not only classify grayware according to diverse taxonomic features but also facilitate evaluations on grayware risk to cyberspace. Armed with Support Vector Machines, the framework builds learning models based on training data extracted automatically from grayware encyclopedias and visualizes categorization results with Self-Organizing Maps. The features used in learning models are selected with information gain and the high dimensionality of feature space is reduced by word stemming and stopword removal process. The grayware categorizations on diversified features reveal that grayware typically attempts to improve its penetration rate by resorting to multiple installation mechanisms and reduced code footprints. The framework also shows that grayware evades detection by attacking victims' security applications and resists being removed by enhancing its clotting capability with infected hosts. Our analysis further points out that species in categories Spyware and Adware continue to dominate the grayware landscape and impose extremely critical threats to the Internet ecosystem.

  2. Judging risk behaviour and risk preference: the role of the evaluative connotation of risk terms.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Schie, E.C.M.; van der Pligt, J.; van Baaren, K.

    1993-01-01

    Two experiments investigated the impact of the evaluative connotation of risk terms on the judgment of risk behavior and on risk preference. Exp 1 focused on the evaluation congruence of the risk terms with a general risk norm and with Ss' individual risk preference, and its effects on the extremity

  3. LSST Painting Risk Evaluation Memo

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wolfe, Justin E. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2016-11-10

    The optics subsystem is required to paint the edges of optics black where possible. Due to the risks in applying the paint LSST requests a review of the impact of removing this requirement for the filters and L3.

  4. Evaluation of thermal risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Loos, J.J.; Perry, E.S.

    1993-01-01

    Risk assessment was done in 1983 to estimate the ecological hazard of increasing the generating load and thermal output of an electric generating station. Subsequently, long-term monitoring in the vicinity of the station allowed verification of the predictions made in the risk assessment. This presentation will review the efficacy of early risk assessment methods in producing useful predictions from a resource management point of view. In 1984, the Chalk Point Generating facility of the Potomac Electric Power Company increased it's median generating load by 100%. Prior to this operational change, the Academy of Natural Sciences of Philadelphia synthesized site specific data, model predictions, and results from literature to assess the risk of additional waste heat to the Patuxent River subestuary of Chesapeake Bay. Risk was expressed as the number of days per year that various species of fish and the blue crab would be expected to avoid the discharge vicinity. Accuracy of these predictions is assessed by comparing observed fish and crab distributions and their observed frequencies of avoidance to those predicted. It is concluded that the predictions of this early risk assessment were sufficiently accurate to produce a reliable resource management decision

  5. Evaluations and utilizations of risk importances

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vesely, W.E.; Davis, T.C.

    1985-08-01

    This report presents approaches for utilizing Probabilistic Risk Analyses (PRA's) to determine risk importances. Risk importances are determined for design features, plant operations, and other factors that can affect risk. PRA's can be used to identify the importances of risk contributors or proposed changes to designs or operations. The objective of this report is to serve as a handbook and guide in evaluating and applying risk importances. The utilization of both qualitative risk importances and quantitative risk importances is described in this report. Qualitative risk importances are based on the logic models in the PRA, while quantitative risk importances are based on the quantitative results of the PRA. Both types of importances are among the most robust and meaningful information a PRA can provide. A wide variety of risk importance evaluations are described including evaluations of the importances of design changes, testing, maintenance, degrading environments, and aging. Specific utilizations are described in inspection and in reliability assurance programs, however the general approaches have widespread applicability. The role of personal computers and decision support programs in applying risk importance evaluations is also described

  6. Risk effectiveness evaluation of surveillance testing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, I.S.; Samanta, P.K.; Martorell, S.; Vesely, W.E.

    1991-01-01

    To address the concerns about nuclear power plant surveillance tests, i.e., their adverse safety impact due to negative effects and too burdensome requirements, it is necessary to evaluate the safety significance or risk effectiveness of such tests explicitly considering both negative and positive effects. This paper defines the negative effects of surveillance testing from a risk perspective, and then presents a methodology to quantify the negative risk impact, i.e., the risk penalty or risk increase caused by the test. The method focuses on two important kinds of negative effects, namely, test-caused transients and test-caused equipment degradations. The concepts and quantitative methods for the risk evaluation can be used in the decision-making process to establish the safety significance of the tests and to screen the plant-specific surveillance test requirements. 6 refs., 2 figs., 2 tabs

  7. Realizing rigor in the mathematics classroom

    CERN Document Server

    Hull, Ted H (Henry); Balka, Don S

    2014-01-01

    Rigor put within reach! Rigor: The Common Core has made it policy-and this first-of-its-kind guide takes math teachers and leaders through the process of making it reality. Using the Proficiency Matrix as a framework, the authors offer proven strategies and practical tools for successful implementation of the CCSS mathematical practices-with rigor as a central objective. You'll learn how to Define rigor in the context of each mathematical practice Identify and overcome potential issues, including differentiating instruction and using data

  8. Ethical and affective evaluation of environmental risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bohm, G.; Pfister, H.R.

    1998-01-01

    Full text of publication follows: the present paper will be concerned with environmental risk perception, with special emphasis on those environmental risks that pertain to global change phenomena, such as climate change and ozone depletion. Two determinants of risk judgments are investigated that seem particularly relevant to environmental risks: ethical and affective evaluations. It is assumed that the focus of risk evaluation can be on one of two aspects: a) on an evaluation of potential losses, or b) on ethical considerations. We assume that both, potential loss and violation of ethical principles elicit emotional evaluations, but that these two judgmental aspects are associated with different specific emotions. Following cognitive emotion theories, we distinguish loss-based emotions, such as worry and fear, from ethical emotions, e.g., guilt and anger. A study is presented that investigates the role of ethical and affective evaluations in risk judgments. Various environmental risks were presented to subjects, e.g., air pollution, ozone depletion, climate change and destruction of ecological balance. For each environmental risk, subjects indicated in free-response format as well as on rating scales the extent to which ethical principles were violated, and the intensity of both loss-based and ethical emotions. The correlational structure of the emotion ratings confirms the distinction between loss-based and ethical emotions. Risk judgments co-vary with the strength of ethical evaluation and with the intensity of loss-based emotions, but are independent of ethical emotions. The implications of these findings for the risk appraisal process are discussed. (authors)

  9. Approved Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Food and Drug Administration Amendments Act of 2007 gave FDA the authority to require a Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS) from manufacturers to...

  10. Evaluation of a constipation risk assessment scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zernike, W; Henderson, A

    1999-06-01

    This project was undertaken in order to evaluate the utility of a constipation risk assessment scale and the accompanying bowel management protocol. The risk assessment scale was primarily introduced to teach and guide staff in managing constipation when caring for patients. The intention of the project was to reduce the incidence of constipation in patients during their admission to hospital.

  11. Evaluating risk management strategies in resource planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andrews, C.J.

    1995-01-01

    This paper discusses the evaluation of risk management strategies as a part of integrated resource planning. Value- and scope-related uncertainties can be addressed during the process of planning, but uncertainties in the operating environment require technical analysis within planning models. Flexibility and robustness are two key classes of strategies for managing the risk posed by these uncertainties. This paper reviews standard capacity expansion planning models and shows that they are poorly equipped to compare risk management strategies. Those that acknowledge uncertainty are better at evaluating robustness than flexibility, which implies a bias against flexible options. Techniques are available to overcome this bias

  12. Classroom Talk for Rigorous Reading Comprehension Instruction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolf, Mikyung Kim; Crosson, Amy C.; Resnick, Lauren B.

    2004-01-01

    This study examined the quality of classroom talk and its relation to academic rigor in reading-comprehension lessons. Additionally, the study aimed to characterize effective questions to support rigorous reading comprehension lessons. The data for this study included 21 reading-comprehension lessons in several elementary and middle schools from…

  13. Risk-based Regulatory Evaluation Program methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    DuCharme, A.R.; Sanders, G.A.; Carlson, D.D.; Asselin, S.V.

    1987-01-01

    The objectives of this DOE-supported Regulatory Evaluation Progrwam are to analyze and evaluate the safety importance and economic significance of existing regulatory guidance in order to assist in the improvement of the regulatory process for current generation and future design reactors. A risk-based cost-benefit methodology was developed to evaluate the safety benefit and cost of specific regulations or Standard Review Plan sections. Risk-based methods can be used in lieu of or in combination with deterministic methods in developing regulatory requirements and reaching regulatory decisions

  14. D ampersand D screening risk evaluation guidance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Robers, S.K.; Golden, K.M.; Wollert, D.A.

    1995-09-01

    The Screening Risk Evaluation (SRE) guidance document is a set of guidelines provided for the uniform implementation of SREs performed on decontamination and decommissioning (D ampersand D) facilities. Although this method has been developed for D ampersand D facilities, it can be used for transition (EM-60) facilities as well. The SRE guidance produces screening risk scores reflecting levels of risk through the use of risk ranking indices. Five types of possible risk are calculated from the SRE: current releases, worker exposures, future releases, physical hazards, and criticality. The Current Release Index (CRI) calculates the current risk to human health and the environment, exterior to the building, from ongoing or probable releases within a one-year time period. The Worker Exposure Index (WEI) calculates the current risk to workers, occupants and visitors inside contaminated D ampersand D facilities due to contaminant exposure. The Future Release Index (FRI) calculates the hypothetical risk of future releases of contaminants, after one year, to human health and the environment. The Physical Hazards Index (PHI) calculates the risks to human health due to factors other than that of contaminants. Criticality is approached as a modifying factor to the entire SRE, due to the fact that criticality issues are strictly regulated under DOE. Screening risk results will be tabulated in matrix form, and Total Risk will be calculated (weighted equation) to produce a score on which to base early action recommendations. Other recommendations from the screening risk scores will be made based either on individual index scores or from reweighted Total Risk calculations. All recommendations based on the SRE will be made based on a combination of screening risk scores, decision drivers, and other considerations, as determined on a project-by-project basis

  15. D & D screening risk evaluation guidance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robers, S.K.; Golden, K.M.; Wollert, D.A.

    1995-09-01

    The Screening Risk Evaluation (SRE) guidance document is a set of guidelines provided for the uniform implementation of SREs performed on decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) facilities. Although this method has been developed for D&D facilities, it can be used for transition (EM-60) facilities as well. The SRE guidance produces screening risk scores reflecting levels of risk through the use of risk ranking indices. Five types of possible risk are calculated from the SRE: current releases, worker exposures, future releases, physical hazards, and criticality. The Current Release Index (CRI) calculates the current risk to human health and the environment, exterior to the building, from ongoing or probable releases within a one-year time period. The Worker Exposure Index (WEI) calculates the current risk to workers, occupants and visitors inside contaminated D&D facilities due to contaminant exposure. The Future Release Index (FRI) calculates the hypothetical risk of future releases of contaminants, after one year, to human health and the environment. The Physical Hazards Index (PHI) calculates the risks to human health due to factors other than that of contaminants. Criticality is approached as a modifying factor to the entire SRE, due to the fact that criticality issues are strictly regulated under DOE. Screening risk results will be tabulated in matrix form, and Total Risk will be calculated (weighted equation) to produce a score on which to base early action recommendations. Other recommendations from the screening risk scores will be made based either on individual index scores or from reweighted Total Risk calculations. All recommendations based on the SRE will be made based on a combination of screening risk scores, decision drivers, and other considerations, as determined on a project-by-project basis.

  16. Issues in Value-at-Risk Modeling and Evaluation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J. Daníelsson (Jón); C.G. de Vries (Casper); B.N. Jorgensen (Bjørn); P.F. Christoffersen (Peter); F.X. Diebold (Francis); T. Schuermann (Til); J.A. Lopez (Jose); B. Hirtle (Beverly)

    1998-01-01

    textabstractDiscusses the issues in value-at-risk modeling and evaluation. Value of value at risk; Horizon problems and extreme events in financial risk management; Methods of evaluating value-at-risk estimates.

  17. Characterization of rigor mortis of longissimus dorsi and triceps ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    24 h) of the longissimus dorsi (LD) and triceps brachii (TB) muscles as well as the shear force (meat tenderness) and colour were evaluated, aiming at characterizing the rigor mortis in the meat during industrial processing. Data statistic treatment demonstrated that carcass temperature and pH decreased gradually during ...

  18. Rigorous Science: a How-To Guide

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arturo Casadevall

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Proposals to improve the reproducibility of biomedical research have emphasized scientific rigor. Although the word “rigor” is widely used, there has been little specific discussion as to what it means and how it can be achieved. We suggest that scientific rigor combines elements of mathematics, logic, philosophy, and ethics. We propose a framework for rigor that includes redundant experimental design, sound statistical analysis, recognition of error, avoidance of logical fallacies, and intellectual honesty. These elements lead to five actionable recommendations for research education.

  19. Societal risk approach to safeguards design and evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bennett, C.A.; Murphey, W.M.; Sherr, T.S.

    1975-06-01

    There has been much discussion and public debate concerning the effectiveness of the national system of safeguards against malevolent acts involving nuclear materials. Useful dialogue on this subject has been hampered by the lack of well-defined objectives, system parameters and boundary conditions as a framework for communication. This study provides such a framework. Expressing the safeguards objective in terms of societal risk represents a change in focus, rather than intent, from the earlier view of safeguards as a system for protecting nuclear material against theft or diversion. The study defines both the safeguards problem and the safeguards system in terms that can be related to the general safeguards objective. It is axiomatic that the first step to an effective solution is a careful definition of the problem. The significant and immediate value of this study lies in the rigorous definition and systematic organization of recognized elements into a coherent and comprehensive pattern. Although the title specifically addresses design and evaluation, the framework provided by the study will be a useful management tool for safeguards implementation and administration as well. (U.S.)

  20. Risk evaluation of accident management strategies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dingman, S.; Camp, A.

    1992-01-01

    The use of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) methods to evaluate accident management strategies in nuclear power plants discussed in this paper. The PRA framework allows an integrated evaluation to be performed to give the full implications of a particular strategy. The methodology is demonstrated for a particular accident management strategy, intentional depressurization of the reactor coolant system to avoid containment pressurization during the ejection of molten debris at vessel breach

  1. Risk variables in evaluation of transport projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vařbuchta, Petr; Kovářová, Hana; Hromádka, Vít; Vítková, Eva

    2017-09-01

    Depending on the constantly increasing demands on assessment of investment projects, especially assessment of large-scale projects in transport and important European projects with wide impacts, there is constantly increasing focus on risk management, whether to find mitigations, creating corrective measures or their implementation in assessment, especially in the context of Cost-Benefit analysis. To project assessment is often used implementation of certain risk variables, which can generate negative impacts of project outputs in framework of assess. Especially in case of transportation infrastructure projects is taken much emphasis on the influence of risk variables. However, currently in case of assessment of transportation projects is in Czech Republic used a few risk variables, which occur in the most projects. This leads to certain limitation in framework of impact assessment of risk variables. This papers aims to specify a new risk variables and process of applying them to already executed project assessment. Based on changes generated by new risk variables will be evaluated differences between original and adapted assessment.

  2. Risk evaluation mitigation strategies: the evolution of risk management policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hollingsworth, Kristen; Toscani, Michael

    2013-04-01

    The United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has the primary regulatory responsibility to ensure that medications are safe and effective both prior to drug approval and while the medication is being actively marketed by manufacturers. The responsibility for safe medications prior to marketing was signed into law in 1938 under the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act; however, a significant risk management evolution has taken place since 1938. Additional federal rules, entitled the Food and Drug Administration Amendments Act, were established in 2007 and extended the government's oversight through the addition of a Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS) for certain drugs. REMS is a mandated strategy to manage a known or potentially serious risk associated with a medication or biological product. Reasons for this extension of oversight were driven primarily by the FDA's movement to ensure that patients and providers are better informed of drug therapies and their specific benefits and risks prior to initiation. This article provides an historical perspective of the evolution of medication risk management policy and includes a review of REMS programs, an assessment of the positive and negative aspects of REMS, and provides suggestions for planning and measuring outcomes. In particular, this publication presents an overview of the evolution of the REMS program and its implications.

  3. Applied decision analysis and risk evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferse, W.; Kruber, S.

    1995-01-01

    During 1994 the workgroup 'Applied Decision Analysis and Risk Evaluation; continued the work on the knowledge based decision support system XUMA-GEFA for the evaluation of the hazard potential of contaminated sites. Additionally a new research direction was started which aims at the support of a later stage of the treatment of contaminated sites: The clean-up decision. For the support of decisions arising at this stage, the methods of decision analysis will be used. Computational aids for evaluation and decision support were implemented and a case study at a waste disposal site in Saxony which turns out to be a danger for the surrounding groundwater ressource was initiated. (orig.)

  4. Gasbuggy Site Assessment and Risk Evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2011-03-01

    This report describes the geologic and hydrologic conditions and evaluates potential health risks to workers in the natural gas industry in the vicinity of the Gasbuggy, New Mexico, site, where the U.S. Atomic Energy Commission detonated an underground nuclear device in 1967. The 29-kiloton detonation took place 4,240 feet below ground surface and was designed to evaluate the use of a nuclear detonation to enhance natural gas production from the Pictured Cliffs Formation in the San Juan Basin, Rio Arriba County, New Mexico, on land administered by Carson National Forest. A site-specific conceptual model was developed based on current understanding of the hydrologic and geologic environment. This conceptual model was used for establishing plausible contaminant exposure scenarios, which were then evaluated for human health risk potential. The most mobile and, therefore, the most probable contaminant that could result in human exposure is tritium. Natural gas production wells were identified as having the greatest potential for bringing detonation-derived contaminants (tritium) to the ground surface in the form of tritiated produced water. Three exposure scenarios addressing potential contamination from gas wells were considered in the risk evaluation: a gas well worker during gas-well-drilling operations, a gas well worker performing routine maintenance, and a residential exposure. The residential exposure scenario was evaluated only for comparison; permanent residences on national forest lands at the Gasbuggy site are prohibited

  5. Computer vision-based evaluation of pre- and postrigor changes in size and shape of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) and Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) fillets during rigor mortis and ice storage: effects of perimortem handling stress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Misimi, E; Erikson, U; Digre, H; Skavhaug, A; Mathiassen, J R

    2008-03-01

    The present study describes the possibilities for using computer vision-based methods for the detection and monitoring of transient 2D and 3D changes in the geometry of a given product. The rigor contractions of unstressed and stressed fillets of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) and Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) were used as a model system. Gradual changes in fillet shape and size (area, length, width, and roundness) were recorded for 7 and 3 d, respectively. Also, changes in fillet area and height (cross-section profiles) were tracked using a laser beam and a 3D digital camera. Another goal was to compare rigor developments of the 2 species of farmed fish, and whether perimortem stress affected the appearance of the fillets. Some significant changes in fillet size and shape were found (length, width, area, roundness, height) between unstressed and stressed fish during the course of rigor mortis as well as after ice storage (postrigor). However, the observed irreversible stress-related changes were small and would hardly mean anything for postrigor fish processors or consumers. The cod were less stressed (as defined by muscle biochemistry) than the salmon after the 2 species had been subjected to similar stress bouts. Consequently, the difference between the rigor courses of unstressed and stressed fish was more extreme in the case of salmon. However, the maximal whole fish rigor strength was judged to be about the same for both species. Moreover, the reductions in fillet area and length, as well as the increases in width, were basically of similar magnitude for both species. In fact, the increases in fillet roundness and cross-section height were larger for the cod. We conclude that the computer vision method can be used effectively for automated monitoring of changes in 2D and 3D shape and size of fish fillets during rigor mortis and ice storage. In addition, it can be used for grading of fillets according to uniformity in size and shape, as well as measurement of

  6. Risk evaluation: A cost-oriented approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rogers, B.H.

    1998-01-01

    This method provides a structured and cost-oriented way to determine risks associated with loss and destruction of industrial security interests consisting of material assets and human resources. Loss and destruction are assumed to be adversary perpetrated, high-impact events in which the health and safety of people or high-value property is at risk. This concept provides a process for: (1) assessing effectiveness of all integrated protection system, which includes facility operations, safety, emergency and security systems, and (2) a qualitative prioritization scheme to determine the level of consequence relative to cost and subsequent risk. The method allows managers the flexibility to establish asset protection appropriate to programmatic requirements and priorities and to decide if funding is appropriate. The evaluation objectives are to: (1) provide for a systematic, qualitative tabletop process to estimate the potential for an undesirable event and its impact; and (2) identify ineffective protection and cost-effective solutions

  7. Credit risk evaluation based on social media.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Yang; Gu, Jing; Zhou, Zongfang

    2016-07-01

    Social media has been playing an increasingly important role in the sharing of individuals' opinions on many financial issues, including credit risk in investment decisions. This paper analyzes whether these opinions, which are transmitted through social media, can accurately predict enterprises' future credit risk. We consider financial statements oriented evaluation results based on logit and probit approaches as the benchmarks. We then conduct textual analysis to retrieve both posts and their corresponding commentaries published on two of the most popular social media platforms for financial investors in China. Professional advice from financial analysts is also investigated in this paper. We surprisingly find that the opinions extracted from both posts and commentaries surpass opinions of analysts in terms of credit risk prediction. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Maintenance evaluation using risk based criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Torres Valle, A.

    1996-01-01

    The maintenance evaluation is currently performed by using economic and, in some case, technical equipment failure criteria, however this is done to a specific equipment level. In general, when statistics are used the analysis for maintenance optimization are made isolated and whit a post mortem character; The integration provided by mean of Probabilistic Safety assessment (PSA) together with the possibilities of its applications, allow for evaluation of maintenance on the basis of broader scope criteria in regard to those traditionally used. The evaluate maintenance using risk based criteria, is necessary to follow a dynamic and systematic approach, in studying the maintenance strategy, to allow for updating the initial probabilistic models, for including operational changes that often take place during operation of complex facilities. This paper proposes a dynamic evaluation system of maintenance task. The system is illustrated by means of a practical example

  9. Contract Design: Risk Management and Evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mühlbacher, Axel C; Amelung, Volker E; Juhnke, Christin

    2018-01-12

    Effective risk adjustment is an aspect that is more and more given weight on the background of competitive health insurance systems and vital healthcare systems. The risk structure of the providers plays a vital role in Pay for Performance. A prerequisite for optimal incentive-based service models is a (partial) dependence of the agent's returns on the provider's gain level. Integrated care systems as well as accountable care organisations (ACOs) in the US and similar concepts in other countries are advocated as an effective method of improving the performance of healthcare systems. These systems outline a payment and care delivery model that intends to tie provider reimbursements to predefined quality metrics. By this the total costs of care shall be reduced. Little is known about the contractual design and the main challenges of delegating "accountability" to these new kinds of organisations and/or contracts. The costs of market utilisation are highly relevant for the conception of healthcare contracts; furthermore information asymmetries and contract-specific investments are an obstacle to the efficient operation of ACOs. A comprehensive literature review on methods of designing contracts in Integrated Care was conducted. The research question in this article focuses on how reimbursement strategies, evaluation of measures and methods of risk adjustment can best be integrated in healthcare contracting. Each integrated care contract includes challenges for both payers and providers without having sufficient empirical data on both sides. These challenges are clinical, administrative or financial nature. Risk adjusted contracts ensure that the reimbursement roughly matches the true costs resulting from the morbidity of a population. If reimbursement of care provider corresponds to the actual expenses for an individual/population the problem of risk selection is greatly reduced. The currently used methods of risk adjustment have widely differing model and forecast

  10. Contract Design: Risk Management and Evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Axel C. Mühlbacher

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Effective risk adjustment is an aspect that is more and more given weight on the background of competitive health insurance systems and vital healthcare systems. The risk structure of the providers plays a vital role in Pay for Performance. A prerequisite for optimal incentive-based service models is a (partial dependence of the agent’s returns on the provider’s gain level. Integrated care systems as well as accountable care organisations (ACOs in the US and similar concepts in other countries are advocated as an effective method of improving the performance of healthcare systems. These systems outline a payment and care delivery model that intends to tie provider reimbursements to predefined quality metrics. By this the total costs of care shall be reduced.  Methods: Little is known about the contractual design and the main challenges of delegating “accountability” to these new kinds of organisations and/or contracts. The costs of market utilisation are highly relevant for the conception of healthcare contracts; furthermore information asymmetries and contract-specific investments are an obstacle to the efficient operation of ACOs. A comprehensive literature review on methods of designing contracts in Integrated Care was conducted. The research question in this article focuses on how reimbursement strategies, evaluation of measures and methods of risk adjustment can best be integrated in healthcare contracting.  Results: Each integrated care contract includes challenges for both payers and providers without having sufficient empirical data on both sides. These challenges are clinical, administrative or financial nature. Risk adjusted contracts ensure that the reimbursement roughly matches the true costs resulting from the morbidity of a population. If reimbursement of care provider corresponds to the actual expenses for an individual/population the problem of risk selection is greatly reduced. The currently used methods

  11. "Rigor mortis" in a live patient.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chakravarthy, Murali

    2010-03-01

    Rigor mortis is conventionally a postmortem change. Its occurrence suggests that death has occurred at least a few hours ago. The authors report a case of "Rigor Mortis" in a live patient after cardiac surgery. The likely factors that may have predisposed such premortem muscle stiffening in the reported patient are, intense low cardiac output status, use of unusually high dose of inotropic and vasopressor agents and likely sepsis. Such an event may be of importance while determining the time of death in individuals such as described in the report. It may also suggest requirement of careful examination of patients with muscle stiffening prior to declaration of death. This report is being published to point out the likely controversies that might arise out of muscle stiffening, which should not always be termed rigor mortis and/ or postmortem.

  12. [Rigor mortis -- a definite sign of death?].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heller, A R; Müller, M P; Frank, M D; Dressler, J

    2005-04-01

    In the past years an ongoing controversial debate exists in Germany, regarding quality of the coroner's inquest and declaration of death by physicians. We report the case of a 90-year old female, who was found after an unknown time following a suicide attempt with benzodiazepine. The examination of the patient showed livores (mortis?) on the left forearm and left lower leg. Moreover, rigor (mortis?) of the left arm was apparent which prevented arm flexion and extension. The hypothermic patient with insufficient respiration was intubated and mechanically ventilated. Chest compressions were not performed, because central pulses were (hardly) palpable and a sinus bradycardia 45/min (AV-block 2 degrees and sole premature ventricular complexes) was present. After placement of an intravenous line (17 G, external jugular vein) the hemodynamic situation was stabilized with intermittent boli of epinephrine and with sodium bicarbonate. With improved circulation livores and rigor disappeared. In the present case a minimal central circulation was noted, which could be stabilized, despite the presence of certain signs of death ( livores and rigor mortis). Considering the finding of an abrogated peripheral perfusion (livores), we postulate a centripetal collapse of glycogen and ATP supply in the patients left arm (rigor), which was restored after resuscitation and reperfusion. Thus, it appears that livores and rigor are not sensitive enough to exclude a vita minima, in particular in hypothermic patients with intoxications. Consequently a careful ABC-check should be performed even in the presence of apparently certain signs of death, to avoid underdiagnosing a vita minima. Additional ECG- monitoring is required to reduce the rate of false positive declarations of death. To what extent basic life support by paramedics should commence when rigor and livores are present until physician DNR order, deserves further discussion.

  13. An ultramicroscopic study on rigor mortis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suzuki, T

    1976-01-01

    Gastrocnemius muscles taken from decapitated mice at various intervals after death and from mice killed by 2,4-dinitrophenol or mono-iodoacetic acid injection to induce rigor mortis soon after death, were observed by electron microscopy. The prominent appearance of many fine cross striations in the myofibrils (occurring about every 400 A) was considered to be characteristic of rigor mortis. These striations were caused by minute granules studded along the surfaces of both thick and thin filaments and appeared to be the bridges connecting the 2 kinds of filaments and accounted for the hardness and rigidity of the muscle.

  14. Evaluation of the risks linked with natural refrigerating fluids; Evaluation des risques lies aux fluides frigorigenes naturels

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Guilpart, J. [Centre National Machiniste Agricole du Genie Rural des Eaux et des Forets, (Cemagref), 35 - Rennes (France). Div. Genie des Procedes Frigorifiques

    1999-07-01

    Because of their environmental impact, halogenated refrigerants are more and more replaced by `natural` refrigerants in vapor compression cycle refrigerating machineries. However, technological risks exist with these substitution fluids due to their flammability, explosibility or toxicity. Major risks can be encountered at the industrial scale and thanks to experience feedback and to several studies, a rigorous approach was settled and included in the legislative texts relative to classified installations and environment protection. Risks also exist at the scale of refrigerating installations with the use of hydrocarbon and ammonia refrigerants. This paper presents an evaluation of risks both at the industrial and at the installation scale: 1 - definition and approach of industrial risks: scenarios of major industrial accidents (boiling liquid expanding vapor explosion (BLEVE), unconfined vapor cloud explosion (UVCE), toxic gases emission); evaluation of accident effects (thermal, mechanical, noxious); 2 - calculation methods applicable to industrial installations: thermal effects (radiation intensity, exposure duration, mass of flammable product involved in the phenomenon), mechanical effects (TNT equivalent method, rupture of pressurized reservoirs), noxious effects (leaks, atmospheric dispersion); 3 - application to refrigerating installations: case of hydrocarbons (dimensioning scenarios and simplified formulae, admissible scenarios), case of ammonia. (J.S.) 20 refs.

  15. The Rigor Mortis of Education: Rigor Is Required in a Dying Educational System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mixon, Jason; Stuart, Jerry

    2009-01-01

    In an effort to answer the "Educational Call to Arms", our national public schools have turned to Advanced Placement (AP) courses as the predominate vehicle used to address the lack of academic rigor in our public high schools. Advanced Placement is believed by many to provide students with the rigor and work ethic necessary to…

  16. Trends: Rigor Mortis in the Arts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blodget, Alden S.

    1991-01-01

    Outlines how past art education provided a refuge for students from the rigors of other academic subjects. Observes that in recent years art education has become "discipline based." Argues that art educators need to reaffirm their commitment to a humanistic way of knowing. (KM)

  17. Photoconductivity of amorphous silicon-rigorous modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brada, P.; Schauer, F.

    1991-01-01

    It is our great pleasure to express our gratitude to Prof. Grigorovici, the pioneer of the exciting field of amorphous state by our modest contribution to this area. In this paper are presented the outline of the rigorous modelling program of the steady-state photoconductivity in amorphous silicon and related materials. (Author)

  18. Municipal Treated Wastewater Irrigation: Microbiological Risk Evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Lonigro

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Municipal wastewater for irrigation, though treated, can contain substances and pathogens toxic for humans and animals. Pathogens, although not harmful from an agronomical aspect, undoubtedly represent a major concern with regards to sanitary and hygienic profile. In fact, vegetable crops irrigated with treated wastewater exalt the risk of infection since these products can also be eaten raw, as well as transformed or cooked. Practically, the evaluation of the microbiological risk is important to verify if the microbial limits imposed by law for treated municipal wastewater for irrigation, are valid, thus justifying the treatments costs, or if they are too low and, therefore, they don’ t justify them. Different probabilistic models have been studied to assess the microbiological risk; among these, the Beta-Poisson model resulted the most reliable. Thus, the Dipartimento di Scienze delle Produzioni Vegetali of the University of Bari, which has been carrying out researches on irrigation with municipal filtered wastewater for several years, considered interesting to verify if the microbial limits imposed by the italian law n.185/03 are too severe, estimating the biological risk by the probabilistic Beta-Poisson model. Results of field trials on vegetable crops irrigated by municipal filtered wastewater, processed by the Beta-Poisson model, show that the probability to get infection and/or illness is extremely low, and that the actual italian microbial limits are excessively restrictive.

  19. Technology Evaluation for Environmental Risk Mitigation Compendium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meinhold, A.; Greene, B.; Dussich, J.; Sorkin, A.; Olsen, W.

    2017-01-01

    The Technology Evaluation for Environmental Risk Mitigation (TEERM) Principal Center and its predecessor organization the Acquisition Pollution Prevention Program (AP2) supported the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) in identifying technology solutions to risks and costs to NASA programs driven by environmental regulations and requirements. TEERM researched the commercial and government marketplace to locate viable and available technologies that met NASAs needs. TEERM focused on addressing environmentally-driven risks of direct concern to NASA programs and facilities, including hazardous materials in NASA operations and materials that became obsolescent because of environmental regulations. TEERM projects aimed to reduce cost; ensure the health and safety of people, assets, and the environment; promote efficiency; and minimize duplication. Major TEERM and AP2 projects focused on waste minimization and hazardous waste treatment, recycling, corrosion prevention and control, solvent and ozone depleting substances substitution, and aqueous based cleaners. In 2017, NASA made the decision to terminate the TEERM Principal Center. This Compendium Report documents TEERM and AP2 project successes. The Compendium Report traces the evolution of TEERM based on evolving risks and requirements for NASA and its relationship to the Space Shuttle Program, the United States Department of Defense, the European Space Agency, and other public and private stakeholders. This Compendium Report also documents project details from Project Summaries and Joint Test Plans and describes project stakeholders and collaborative effort results.

  20. Evaluation of consequences and risks in Slovenia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Susnik, J.

    1996-01-01

    The paper describes the evaluation of nuclear power plant accident consequences and risks using probabilistic safety codes during the last 12 years at the J. Stefan Institute. They cover classic individual and population risk studies due to assumed potential severe accident scenarios, prediction and estimation of Chernobyl accident consequences, the optimization of emergency countermeasures at the Krsko site, where the 632 MWe Westinghouse PWR NPP went into commercial operation on January 1983, and the ranking of population risk within the public debate in connection with the civil initiative to close the NPP Krsko. We report on the initial use of the CRAC2 code in 1984 and later, when it was first applied for the study of population risk in the area of the second planned Slovenian-Croatian NPP for the Prevlaka site. The study was completed a few weeks before the Chernobyl accident in April 1986. Risk evaluation was also included in the analysis of nuclear safety at the NPP Krsko during the war for Slovenia's independence in 1991. We report on the (CRAC2) analyses of the Chernobyl accident: on initial estimation of the maximal potentially expected consequences in Slovenia, on the effect of the radioactive cloud rise on the consequences relatively close to the NPP; on the further research after the detailed information on the radioactivity release and on the air masses movement were published; then the cloud activity which moved towards Slovenia was assessed and the expected consequences along its path were calculated. As the calculated integral individual exposure to the I 131 inhalation and the ground Cs 137 contamination matched with the measurements in Ljubljana and with the UNSCEAR 1988 data, our reliance on the CRAC2 code and on its ancestors is high. We report on the analyses, performed by the CRAC2 code and since 1993 also by the PC COSYMA code, related to the countermeasure effects. The consequences studied were extended to late health effects. We analyzed

  1. Gasbuggy Site Assessment and Risk Evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2011-03-01

    The Gasbuggy site is in northern New Mexico in the San Juan Basin, Rio Arriba County (Figure 1-1). The Gasbuggy experiment was designed to evaluate the use of a nuclear detonation to enhance natural gas production from the Pictured Cliffs Formation, a tight, gas-bearing sandstone formation. The 29-kiloton-yield nuclear device was placed in a 17.5-inch wellbore at 4,240 feet (ft) below ground surface (bgs), approximately 40 ft below the Pictured Cliffs/Lewis shale contact, in an attempt to force the cavity/chimney formed by the detonation up into the Pictured Cliffs Sandstone. The test was conducted below the southwest quarter of Section 36, Township 29 North, Range 4 West, New Mexico Principal Meridian. The device was detonated on December 10, 1967, creating a 335-ft-high chimney above the detonation point and a cavity 160 ft in diameter. The gas produced from GB-ER (the emplacement and reentry well) during the post-detonation production tests was radioactive and diluted, primarily by carbon dioxide. After 2 years, the energy content of the gas had recovered to 80 percent of the value of gas in conventionally developed wells in the area. There is currently no technology capable of remediating deep underground nuclear detonation cavities and chimneys. Consequently, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) must continue to manage the Gasbuggy site to ensure that no inadvertent intrusion into the residual contamination occurs. DOE has complete control over the 1/4 section (160 acres) containing the shot cavity, and no drilling is permitted on that property. However, oil and gas leases are on the surrounding land. Therefore, the most likely route of intrusion and potential exposure would be through contaminated natural gas or contaminated water migrating into a producing natural gas well outside the immediate vicinity of ground zero. The purpose of this report is to describe the current site conditions and evaluate the potential health risks posed by the most plausible

  2. Accelerating Biomedical Discoveries through Rigor and Transparency.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hewitt, Judith A; Brown, Liliana L; Murphy, Stephanie J; Grieder, Franziska; Silberberg, Shai D

    2017-07-01

    Difficulties in reproducing published research findings have garnered a lot of press in recent years. As a funder of biomedical research, the National Institutes of Health (NIH) has taken measures to address underlying causes of low reproducibility. Extensive deliberations resulted in a policy, released in 2015, to enhance reproducibility through rigor and transparency. We briefly explain what led to the policy, describe its elements, provide examples and resources for the biomedical research community, and discuss the potential impact of the policy on translatability with a focus on research using animal models. Importantly, while increased attention to rigor and transparency may lead to an increase in the number of laboratory animals used in the near term, it will lead to more efficient and productive use of such resources in the long run. The translational value of animal studies will be improved through more rigorous assessment of experimental variables and data, leading to better assessments of the translational potential of animal models, for the benefit of the research community and society. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Institute for Laboratory Animal Research 2017. This work is written by (a) US Government employee(s) and is in the public domain in the US.

  3. Level 3 baseline risk evaluation for Building 3506 at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Golden, K.M.; Robers, S.K.; Cretella, F.M.

    1994-12-01

    This report presents the results of the Level 3 Baseline Risk Evaluation (BRE) performed on Building 3506 located at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). This BRE is intended to provide an analysis of the potential for adverse health effects (current or future) posed by contaminants at the facility. The decision was made to conduct a Level 3 (least rigorous) BRE because only residual contamination exists in the building. Future plans for the facility (demolition) also preclude a rigorous analysis. Site characterization activities for Building 3506 were conducted in fall of 1993. Concrete core samples were taken from the floors and walls of both the cell and the east gallery. These cores were analyzed for radionuclides and organic and inorganic chemicals. Smear samples and direct radiation measurements were also collected. Sediment exists on the floor of the cell and was also analyzed. To adequately characterize the risks posed by the facility, receptors for both current and potential future land uses were evaluated. For the current land use conditions, two receptors were evaluated. The first receptor is a hypothetical maintenance worker who spends 250 days (8 hours/day) for 25 years working in the facility. The remaining receptor evaluated is a hypothetical S and M worker who spends 2 days (8 hours/day) per year for 25 years working within the facility. This particular receptor best exemplifies the current worker scenario for the facility. The two current exposure scenarios and parameters of exposure (e.g., inhalation and ingestion rates) have been developed to provide a conservative (i.e. health protective) estimate of potential exposure.

  4. Level 3 baseline risk evaluation for Building 3506 at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Golden, K.M.; Robers, S.K.; Cretella, F.M.

    1994-12-01

    This report presents the results of the Level 3 Baseline Risk Evaluation (BRE) performed on Building 3506 located at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). This BRE is intended to provide an analysis of the potential for adverse health effects (current or future) posed by contaminants at the facility. The decision was made to conduct a Level 3 (least rigorous) BRE because only residual contamination exists in the building. Future plans for the facility (demolition) also preclude a rigorous analysis. Site characterization activities for Building 3506 were conducted in fall of 1993. Concrete core samples were taken from the floors and walls of both the cell and the east gallery. These cores were analyzed for radionuclides and organic and inorganic chemicals. Smear samples and direct radiation measurements were also collected. Sediment exists on the floor of the cell and was also analyzed. To adequately characterize the risks posed by the facility, receptors for both current and potential future land uses were evaluated. For the current land use conditions, two receptors were evaluated. The first receptor is a hypothetical maintenance worker who spends 250 days (8 hours/day) for 25 years working in the facility. The remaining receptor evaluated is a hypothetical S and M worker who spends 2 days (8 hours/day) per year for 25 years working within the facility. This particular receptor best exemplifies the current worker scenario for the facility. The two current exposure scenarios and parameters of exposure (e.g., inhalation and ingestion rates) have been developed to provide a conservative (i.e. health protective) estimate of potential exposure

  5. From risk analysis to risk control in land transport of dangerous materials. Contribution of quantitative evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubert, Ph.; Pages, P.

    1985-03-01

    The different approaches of risks and risk management system are described: statistics, potential risk, prevention, information and intervention. Quantitative evaluation is developed: data collection, purposes and methods. Two examples of application are given on risks associated to road transport of propane and of uranium hexafluoride. In conclusion level of risk and practical use of studies on risks are examined. 41 refs [fr

  6. Designs for Risk Evaluation and Management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2015-12-01

    The Designs for Risk Evaluation and Management (DREAM) tool was developed as part of the effort to quantify the risk of geologic storage of carbon dioxide (CO2) under the U.S. Department of Energy's National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP). DREAM is an optimization tool created to identify optimal monitoring schemes that minimize the time to first detection of CO2 leakage from a subsurface storage formation. DREAM acts as a post-processer on user-provided output from subsurface leakage simulations. While DREAM was developed for CO2 leakage scenarios, it is applicable to any subsurface leakage simulation of the same output format. The DREAM tool is comprised of three main components: (1) a Java wizard used to configure and execute the simulations, (2) a visualization tool to view the domain space and optimization results, and (3) a plotting tool used to analyze the results. A secondary Java application is provided to aid users in converting common American Standard Code for Information Interchange (ASCII) output data to the standard DREAM hierarchical data format (HDF5). DREAM employs a simulated annealing approach that searches the solution space by iteratively mutating potential monitoring schemes built of various configurations of monitoring locations and leak detection parameters. This approach has proven to be orders of magnitude faster than an exhaustive search of the entire solution space. The user's manual illustrates the program graphical user interface (GUI), describes the tool inputs, and includes an example application.

  7. JCL roundtable: Risk evaluation and mitigation strategy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, W Virgil; Bramlet, Dean A; Ross, Joyce L; Underberg, James A

    Many factors enter into the decision by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to approve a new drug for use by physicians and other health care providers in treating diseases. Initially, the FDA authority was restricted to issues of safety and only later did the documentation of efficacy become part of the review process required for approval. However, all drugs have the potential for causing harm at some dose level to all and at lower doses in certain patients with vulnerability to the particular pharmacology of the agent. As new drugs have been designed to manage disorders that are uncommon, but of significant consequence, they may have adverse effects that are acceptable only because they are so uniquely beneficial to these specific conditions. The risk of these adverse effects may be acceptable since the benefit can outweigh the harm in most patients and the adversity can be predicted and managed. The approval of this category of drugs has grown rapidly since definition of a mechanism of action to manage and modify the risk has been provided by a process known as known as Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy or "REMS." In 2007, the Food and Drug Administration Amendments Act (FDAAA) allowed the FDA to require postmarketing studies and the authority to mandate the implementation of a REMS for drugs with efficacy but documented potential for harm. Two relatively new drugs useful in the management of severe elevations of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol have been approved under a requirement for a REMS. These are lomitapide, an inhibitor of microsomal triglyceride transfer protein and mipomersen, an antisense oligonucleotide which reduces the synthesis of apolipoprotein B. Copyright © 2016 National Lipid Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Evaluation of Seismic Risk of Siberia Territory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seleznev, V. S.; Soloviev, V. M.; Emanov, A. F.

    The outcomes of modern geophysical researches of the Geophysical Survey SB RAS, directed on study of geodynamic situation in large industrial and civil centers on the territory of Siberia with the purpose of an evaluation of seismic risk of territories and prediction of origin of extreme situations of natural and man-caused character, are pre- sented in the paper. First of all it concerns the testing and updating of a geoinformation system developed by Russian Emergency Ministry designed for calculations regarding the seismic hazard and response to distructive earthquakes. The GIS database contains the catalogues of earthquakes and faults, seismic zonation maps, vectorized city maps, information on industrial and housing fund, data on character of building and popula- tion in inhabited places etc. The geoinformation system allows to solve on a basis of probabilistic approaches the following problems: - estimating the earthquake impact, required forces, facilities and supplies for life-support of injured population; - deter- mining the consequences of failures on chemical and explosion-dangerous objects; - optimization problems on assurance technology of conduct of salvage operations. Using this computer program, the maps of earthquake risk have been constructed for several seismically dangerous regions of Siberia. These maps display the data on the probable amount of injured people and relative economic damage from an earthquake, which can occur in various sites of the territory according to the map of seismic zona- tion. The obtained maps have allowed determining places where the detailed seismo- logical observations should be arranged. Along with it on the territory of Siberia the wide-ranging investigations with use of new methods of evaluation of physical state of industrial and civil establishments (buildings and structures, hydroelectric power stations, bridges, dams, etc.), high-performance detailed electromagnetic researches of ground conditions of city

  9. 75 FR 29732 - Career and Technical Education Program-Promoting Rigorous Career and Technical Education Programs...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-05-27

    ... rigorous knowledge and skills in English- language arts and mathematics that employers and colleges expect... specialists and to access the student outcome data needed to meet annual evaluation and reporting requirements...

  10. Effect of Pre-rigor Salting Levels on Physicochemical and Textural Properties of Chicken Breast Muscles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Hyun-Wook; Hwang, Ko-Eun; Song, Dong-Heon; Kim, Yong-Jae; Ham, Youn-Kyung; Yeo, Eui-Joo; Jeong, Tae-Jun; Choi, Yun-Sang; Kim, Cheon-Jei

    2015-01-01

    This study was conducted to evaluate the effect of pre-rigor salting level (0-4% NaCl concentration) on physicochemical and textural properties of pre-rigor chicken breast muscles. The pre-rigor chicken breast muscles were de-boned 10 min post-mortem and salted within 25 min post-mortem. An increase in pre-rigor salting level led to the formation of high ultimate pH of chicken breast muscles at post-mortem 24 h. The addition of minimum of 2% NaCl significantly improved water holding capacity, cooking loss, protein solubility, and hardness when compared to the non-salting chicken breast muscle (prigor salting level caused the inhibition of myofibrillar protein degradation and the acceleration of lipid oxidation. However, the difference in NaCl concentration between 3% and 4% had no great differences in the results of physicochemical and textural properties due to pre-rigor salting effects (p>0.05). Therefore, our study certified the pre-rigor salting effect of chicken breast muscle salted with 2% NaCl when compared to post-rigor muscle salted with equal NaCl concentration, and suggests that the 2% NaCl concentration is minimally required to ensure the definite pre-rigor salting effect on chicken breast muscle.

  11. Effect of Pre-rigor Salting Levels on Physicochemical and Textural Properties of Chicken Breast Muscles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Yun-Sang

    2015-01-01

    This study was conducted to evaluate the effect of pre-rigor salting level (0-4% NaCl concentration) on physicochemical and textural properties of pre-rigor chicken breast muscles. The pre-rigor chicken breast muscles were de-boned 10 min post-mortem and salted within 25 min post-mortem. An increase in pre-rigor salting level led to the formation of high ultimate pH of chicken breast muscles at post-mortem 24 h. The addition of minimum of 2% NaCl significantly improved water holding capacity, cooking loss, protein solubility, and hardness when compared to the non-salting chicken breast muscle (psalting level caused the inhibition of myofibrillar protein degradation and the acceleration of lipid oxidation. However, the difference in NaCl concentration between 3% and 4% had no great differences in the results of physicochemical and textural properties due to pre-rigor salting effects (p>0.05). Therefore, our study certified the pre-rigor salting effect of chicken breast muscle salted with 2% NaCl when compared to post-rigor muscle salted with equal NaCl concentration, and suggests that the 2% NaCl concentration is minimally required to ensure the definite pre-rigor salting effect on chicken breast muscle. PMID:26761884

  12. An operations-partnered evaluation of care redesign for high-risk patients in the Veterans Health Administration (VHA): Study protocol for the PACT Intensive Management (PIM) randomized quality improvement evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Evelyn T; Zulman, Donna M; Asch, Steven M; Stockdale, Susan E; Yoon, Jean; Ong, Michael K; Lee, Martin; Simon, Alissa; Atkins, David; Schectman, Gordon; Kirsh, Susan R; Rubenstein, Lisa V

    2018-06-01

    Patient-centered medical homes have made great strides providing comprehensive care for patients with chronic conditions, but may not provide sufficient support for patients at highest risk for acute care use. To address this, the Veterans Health Administration (VHA) initiated a five-site demonstration project to evaluate the effectiveness of augmenting the VA's Patient Aligned Care Team (PACT) medical home with PACT Intensive Management (PIM) teams for Veterans at highest risk for hospitalization. Researchers partnered with VHA leadership to design a mixed-methods prospective multi-site evaluation that met leadership's desire for a rigorous evaluation conducted as quality improvement rather than research. We conducted a randomized QI evaluation and assigned high-risk patients to participate in PIM and compared them with high-risk Veterans receiving usual care through PACT. The summative evaluation examines whether PIM: 1) decreases VHA emergency department and hospital use; 2) increases satisfaction with VHA care; 3) decreases provider burnout; and 4) generates positive returns on investment. The formative evaluation aims to support improved care for high-risk patients at demonstration sites and to inform future initiatives for high-risk patients. The evaluation was reviewed by representatives from the VHA Office of Research and Development and the Office of Research Oversight and met criteria for quality improvement. VHA aims to function as a learning organization by rapidly implementing and rigorously testing QI innovations prior to final program or policy development. We observed challenges and opportunities in designing an evaluation consistent with QI standards and operations priorities, while also maintaining scientific rigor. This trial was retrospectively registered at ClinicalTrials.gov on April 3, 2017: NCT03100526. Protocol v1, FY14-17. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Software metrics a rigorous and practical approach

    CERN Document Server

    Fenton, Norman

    2014-01-01

    A Framework for Managing, Measuring, and Predicting Attributes of Software Development Products and ProcessesReflecting the immense progress in the development and use of software metrics in the past decades, Software Metrics: A Rigorous and Practical Approach, Third Edition provides an up-to-date, accessible, and comprehensive introduction to software metrics. Like its popular predecessors, this third edition discusses important issues, explains essential concepts, and offers new approaches for tackling long-standing problems.New to the Third EditionThis edition contains new material relevant

  14. Evaluating Process Effectiveness to Reduce Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shepherd, Christena C.

    2017-01-01

    security; loss of confidence in government; failure of publicly funded projects; damage to the environment; ethics violations, and the list goes on; with local, national and even international consequences. The Plan-Do-Check-Act process, also known as the "process approach" can be used at any time to establish and standardize a process, and it can also be used to check periodically for "process creep" (i.e., informal, unauthorized changes that have occurred over time), any necessary updates and improvements. While ISO 9001 compliance is not mandated for all government agencies, if interpreted correctly, it can be useful in establishing a framework and implementing effective management systems and processes.4 Another method that can be used to evaluate effectiveness is the scorecard definitions in Mallory's Process Management Standard5 as a basis for evaluating work on the process level on effective, and continuously improved and improving processes. With processes on the lower end of the scale, agencies are vulnerable to a great many risks, with employees and managers making up many of the rules as they go, leading to the above listed negative results. Without clear guidance for nominal operations, off-nominal situations can, and do, increase the likelihood of chaos. In an increasingly technical environment, with inter-agency communication and collaboration becoming the norm, agencies need to come to grips with the fact that processes can become rapidly outdated, and that the technical community should take on an increased role in the maturation of the agency's processes. Industry has long known that effective processes are also efficient, and process improvement methods such as Kaizen, Lean, Six Sigma, 5S, and mistake proofing lead to increased productivity, improved quality, and decreased cost. Again, government agencies have different concerns, but inefficiencies and mistakes can have dire and wide reaching consequences for the public that they serve. While no one goes

  15. Development of rigor mortis is not affected by muscle volume.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kobayashi, M; Ikegaya, H; Takase, I; Hatanaka, K; Sakurada, K; Iwase, H

    2001-04-01

    There is a hypothesis suggesting that rigor mortis progresses more rapidly in small muscles than in large muscles. We measured rigor mortis as tension determined isometrically in rat musculus erector spinae that had been cut into muscle bundles of various volumes. The muscle volume did not influence either the progress or the resolution of rigor mortis, which contradicts the hypothesis. Differences in pre-rigor load on the muscles influenced the onset and resolution of rigor mortis in a few pairs of samples, but did not influence the time taken for rigor mortis to reach its full extent after death. Moreover, the progress of rigor mortis in this muscle was biphasic; this may reflect the early rigor of red muscle fibres and the late rigor of white muscle fibres.

  16. Consumer Evaluations of Food Risk Management Quality in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kleef, van E.; Houghton, J.R.; Krystallis, A.; Pfenning, U.; Rowe, G.; Dijk, van H.; Lans, van der I.A.; Frewer, L.J.

    2007-01-01

    In developing and implementing appropriate food risk management strategies, it is important to understand how consumers evaluate the quality of food risk management practices. The aim of this study is to model the underlying psychological factors influencing consumer evaluations of food risk

  17. Use of expert judgment in the development and evaluation of risk-based inservice testing strategies for pumps and valves

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McAllister, W.J.; Perdue, R.K.; Balkey, K.R.; Closky, N.B. [and others

    1996-12-01

    This paper describes a rigorous approach for quantitatively evaluating inservice testing effectiveness that evolved from two pilot plant studies. These studies prototyped methodologies for designing and selecting inservice testing (IST) strategies in a manner structured to insure that the targeted components will perform their required safety functions while minimizing life cycle inservice testing costs. The paper concentrates on the use of expert judgment in developing test effectiveness measures that move risk-based methods beyond ranking to optimization of plant IST programs. Selected results for check valves and pumps are shown to illustrate the practical significance of the approach.

  18. Use of expert judgment in the development and evaluation of risk-based inservice testing strategies for pumps and valves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McAllister, W.J.; Perdue, R.K.; Balkey, K.R.; Closky, N.B.

    1996-01-01

    This paper describes a rigorous approach for quantitatively evaluating inservice testing effectiveness that evolved from two pilot plant studies. These studies prototyped methodologies for designing and selecting inservice testing (IST) strategies in a manner structured to insure that the targeted components will perform their required safety functions while minimizing life cycle inservice testing costs. The paper concentrates on the use of expert judgment in developing test effectiveness measures that move risk-based methods beyond ranking to optimization of plant IST programs. Selected results for check valves and pumps are shown to illustrate the practical significance of the approach

  19. Evaluation of Cardiovascular Risk Scores Applied to NASA's Astronant Corps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jain, I.; Charvat, J. M.; VanBaalen, M.; Lee, L.; Wear, M. L.

    2014-01-01

    In an effort to improve cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction, this analysis evaluates and compares the applicability of multiple CVD risk scores to the NASA Astronaut Corps which is extremely healthy at selection.

  20. Diagnosis and Tests: Evaluating a Fall or Risk of Falling

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... as a physical therapist, who can evaluate your fall risk. If your healthcare provider concludes that you are ... to check for things that can impact your fall risk, such as electrolyte balance and the possibility of ...

  1. At-Risk Youth Appearance and Job Performance Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freeburg, Beth Winfrey; Workman, Jane E.

    2008-01-01

    The goal of this study was to identify the relationship of at-risk youth workplace appearance to other job performance criteria. Employers (n = 30; each employing from 1 to 17 youths) evaluated 178 at-risk high school youths who completed a paid summer employment experience. Appearance evaluations were significantly correlated with evaluations of…

  2. MODERN RISK MEASURES FOR INDIVIDUAL HIGHER EDUCATION INVESTMENT RISK EVALUATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vona Mate

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available One of the reasons why people get degree and participate in organized education is that they want to raise their human capital or signal their inner abilities to future employers by sorting themselves out. In both cases they can expect return to their investment, because they can expect higher life-time earnings than those who do not have degree. In this paper we will refer this activity as higher education investment or education investment. In this paper the investment of the state into educating their citizens will not be considered. The question of this paper will develop the findings of Vona (2014. I suggested to introduce modern risk measures because individual risk-taking became a serious question. It was considered that modern risk measures can help to solve some issues with the relation of investment and risk. However before applying some measures from a different field of science, namely investment finance and financial mathematics, to another, economics of education, there must be a very careful consideration, because there are debate over these measures applicability even on their field of science. Value at Risk is not coherent and Expected Shortfall is only one of a great deal of possible tail loss measures. For this reason it will be discussed in detail how should we should adopt the measures, what kind of data is necessary for calculating this risk measures and what kind of new insight they can bring. With the aid of a numerical example it will be shown that with expected shortfall measure we can reflect some large losses, and potential high value of diversification. We show the value at risk based measure is not coherent and this means it points out something different in this environment. It is can be an indicator of loss in opportunities for high end returns.

  3. Evaluating emergency risk communications: a dialogue with the experts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Craig W; Vanderford, Marsha L; Crouse Quinn, Sandra

    2008-10-01

    Evaluating emergency risk communications is fraught with challenges since communication can be approached from both a systemic and programmatic level. Therefore, one must consider stakeholders' perspectives, effectiveness issues, standards of evidence and utility, and channels of influence (e.g., mass media and law enforcement). Evaluation issues related to timing, evaluation questions, methods, measures, and accountability are raised in this dialogue with emergency risk communication specialists. Besides the usual evaluation competencies, evaluators in this area need to understand and work collaboratively with stakeholders and be attuned to the dynamic contextual nature of emergency risk communications. Sample resources and measures are provided here to aid in this emerging and exciting field of evaluation.

  4. Rigor in Qualitative Supply Chain Management Research

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Goffin, Keith; Raja, Jawwad; Claes, Björn

    2012-01-01

    , reliability, and theoretical saturation. Originality/value – It is the authors' contention that the addition of the repertory grid technique to the toolset of methods used by logistics and supply chain management researchers can only enhance insights and the building of robust theories. Qualitative studies......Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to share the authors' experiences of using the repertory grid technique in two supply chain management studies. The paper aims to demonstrate how the two studies provided insights into how qualitative techniques such as the repertory grid can be made more...... rigorous than in the past, and how results can be generated that are inaccessible using quantitative methods. Design/methodology/approach – This paper presents two studies undertaken using the repertory grid technique to illustrate its application in supply chain management research. Findings – The paper...

  5. Statistics for mathematicians a rigorous first course

    CERN Document Server

    Panaretos, Victor M

    2016-01-01

    This textbook provides a coherent introduction to the main concepts and methods of one-parameter statistical inference. Intended for students of Mathematics taking their first course in Statistics, the focus is on Statistics for Mathematicians rather than on Mathematical Statistics. The goal is not to focus on the mathematical/theoretical aspects of the subject, but rather to provide an introduction to the subject tailored to the mindset and tastes of Mathematics students, who are sometimes turned off by the informal nature of Statistics courses. This book can be used as the basis for an elementary semester-long first course on Statistics with a firm sense of direction that does not sacrifice rigor. The deeper goal of the text is to attract the attention of promising Mathematics students.

  6. Risk evaluation system for facility safeguards and security planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Udell, C.J.; Carlson, R.L.

    1987-01-01

    The Risk Evaluation System (RES) is an integrated approach to determining safeguards and security effectiveness and risk. RES combines the planning and technical analysis into a format that promotes an orderly development of protection strategies, planing assumptions, facility targets, vulnerability and risk determination, enhancement planning, and implementation. In addition, the RES computer database program enhances the capability of the analyst to perform a risk evaluation of the facility. The computer database is menu driven using data input screens and contains an algorithm for determining the probability of adversary defeat and risk. Also, base case and adjusted risk data records can be maintained and accessed easily

  7. Risk evaluation system for facility safeguards and security planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Udell, C.J.; Carlson, R.L.

    1987-01-01

    The Risk Evaluation System (RES) is an integrated approach to determining safeguards and security effectiveness and risk. RES combines the planning and technical analysis into a format that promotes an orderly development of protection strategies, planning assumptions, facility targets, vulnerability and risk determination, enhancement planning, and implementation. In addition, the RES computer database program enhances the capability of the analyst to perform a risk evaluation of the facility. The computer database is menu driven using data input screens and contains an algorithm for determining the probability of adversary defeat and risk. Also, base case and adjusted risk data records can be maintained and accessed easily

  8. The gamma knife: Dose and risk evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, E.D.; Alesso, H.P.; Banks, W.W.; Rathbun, P.A.

    1992-01-01

    This paper outlines a risk analysis approach designed to identify and assess most likely failure modes and high-risk, human initiated actions for nuclear medical devices. This approach is being developed under the auspices of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Office of Nuclear Material Safety and Safeguards. The methodology is initiated intended to assess risk associated with the use of the Leksell Gamma Unit (LGU) or gamma knife, a gamma stereotactic radiosurgical device

  9. Comparative evaluation of risks at regional level

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aigueperse, J.; Anguenot, F.; Hardy, S.

    1990-01-01

    In this paper we give the risks for the population of the South-East part of France. The risks are given, in case of chronic intake for energy production (coal and uranium mines, oil refineries, electricity production), for natural and medical irradiation (X-ray radiography-radiotherapy) and for domestic risks (use of chemical products). In case of accidents, the risks are studied in the optic of territorial gestion: transport of dangerous products (natural gas-fuel-chemical products) fires or explosions in chemical manufactories, water pollution by manufactories and agricultural uses [fr

  10. AN EVALUATION OF RISK MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES FOR DAIRY FARMS

    OpenAIRE

    Bosch, Darrell J.; Johnson, Christian J.

    1992-01-01

    Variability in feed prices and crop yields are important sources of risk to dairy farmers. A simulation model of a representative dairy farm was used to evaluate crop insurance and hedging as risk management strategies. These strategies lowered expected net returns but also reduced risk. The preferred set of strategies at lower levels of risk aversion included hedging and crop insurance, although a base scenario in which no risk management strategies were employed was also efficient. The pref...

  11. How to evaluate the risks of exceeding limits: geostatistical models and their application to air pollution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fouquet, Ch. de; Deraisme, J.; Bobbia, M.

    2007-01-01

    Geo-statistics is increasingly applied to the study of environmental risks in a variety of sectors, especially in the fields of soil decontamination and the evaluation of the risks due to air pollution. Geo-statistics offers a rigorous stochastic modeling approach that makes it possible to answer questions expressed in terms of uncertainty and risk. This article focusses on nonlinear geo-statistical methods, based on the Gaussian random function model, whose essential properties are summarised. We use two examples to characterize situations where direct and thus rapid methods provide appropriate solutions and cases that inevitably require more laborious simulation techniques. Exposure of the population of the Rouen metropolitan area to the risk of NO 2 pollution is assessed by simulations, but the surface area where the pollution exceeds the threshold limit can be easily estimated with nonlinear conditional expectation techniques. A second example is used to discuss the bias introduced by direct simulation, here of a percentile of daily SO 2 concentration for one year in the city of Le Havre; an operational solution is proposed. (authors)

  12. MASTERS OF ANALYTICAL TRADECRAFT: CERTIFYING THE STANDARDS AND ANALYTIC RIGOR OF INTELLIGENCE PRODUCTS

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-04-01

    AU/ACSC/2016 AIR COMMAND AND STAFF COLLEGE AIR UNIVERSITY MASTERS OF ANALYTICAL TRADECRAFT: CERTIFYING THE STANDARDS AND ANALYTIC RIGOR OF...establishing unit level certified Masters of Analytic Tradecraft (MAT) analysts to be trained and entrusted to evaluate and rate the standards and...cues) ideally should meet or exceed effective rigor (based on analytical process).4 To accomplish this, decision makers should not be left to their

  13. [A new formula for the measurement of rigor mortis: the determination of the FRR-index (author's transl)].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forster, B; Ropohl, D; Raule, P

    1977-07-05

    The manual examination of rigor mortis as currently used and its often subjective evaluation frequently produced highly incorrect deductions. It is therefore desirable that such inaccuracies should be replaced by the objective measuring of rigor mortis at the extremities. To that purpose a method is described which can also be applied in on-the-spot investigations and a new formula for the determination of rigor mortis--indices (FRR) is introduced.

  14. The term 'risk' and its evaluation bases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brueckner, R.

    1976-01-01

    The term risk, the risk itself and its application for radiation exposure in practised medicine is presented from the following points of view: Life expectation, susceptibility to sickness and permanent inability to work, impaired professional and earning capacity, work accident and sickness. (HP) [de

  15. Effects of rigor status during high-pressure processing on the physical qualities of farm-raised abalone (Haliotis rufescens).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hughes, Brianna H; Greenberg, Neil J; Yang, Tom C; Skonberg, Denise I

    2015-01-01

    High-pressure processing (HPP) is used to increase meat safety and shelf-life, with conflicting quality effects depending on rigor status during HPP. In the seafood industry, HPP is used to shuck and pasteurize oysters, but its use on abalones has only been minimally evaluated and the effect of rigor status during HPP on abalone quality has not been reported. Farm-raised abalones (Haliotis rufescens) were divided into 12 HPP treatments and 1 unprocessed control treatment. Treatments were processed pre-rigor or post-rigor at 2 pressures (100 and 300 MPa) and 3 processing times (1, 3, and 5 min). The control was analyzed post-rigor. Uniform plugs were cut from adductor and foot meat for texture profile analysis, shear force, and color analysis. Subsamples were used for scanning electron microscopy of muscle ultrastructure. Texture profile analysis revealed that post-rigor processed abalone was significantly (P abalone meat was more tender than pre-rigor processed meat, and post-rigor processed foot meat was lighter in color than pre-rigor processed foot meat, suggesting that waiting for rigor to resolve prior to processing abalones may improve consumer perceptions of quality and market value. © 2014 Institute of Food Technologists®

  16. Conventional myelography - evaluation of risk and benefit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hentschel, F.

    1989-01-01

    While the benefit and methodic risk of conventional myelography (KMG) are known, a radiation risk of 0.04 to 0.9 annual radiation-induced cancers can be estimated for all inhabitants of the GDR, dependent on the investigated region and the technique used. An optimized technique can reduce the radiation burden to 50 or 25%. With comparable values of benefit and radiation risk spinal CT and KMG are not contradictory but complementary investigations. Alternative methods (MRT, US) must not be discussed from the standpoint of radiation burden, but according to their availability and their methodic limitations. (author)

  17. Differential rigor development in red and white muscle revealed by simultaneous measurement of tension and stiffness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kobayashi, Masahiko; Takemori, Shigeru; Yamaguchi, Maki

    2004-02-10

    Based on the molecular mechanism of rigor mortis, we have proposed that stiffness (elastic modulus evaluated with tension response against minute length perturbations) can be a suitable index of post-mortem rigidity in skeletal muscle. To trace the developmental process of rigor mortis, we measured stiffness and tension in both red and white rat skeletal muscle kept in liquid paraffin at 37 and 25 degrees C. White muscle (in which type IIB fibres predominate) developed stiffness and tension significantly more slowly than red muscle, except for soleus red muscle at 25 degrees C, which showed disproportionately slow rigor development. In each of the examined muscles, stiffness and tension developed more slowly at 25 degrees C than at 37 degrees C. In each specimen, tension always reached its maximum level earlier than stiffness, and then decreased more rapidly and markedly than stiffness. These phenomena may account for the sequential progress of rigor mortis in human cadavers.

  18. Rigorous theory of molecular orientational nonlinear optics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kwak, Chong Hoon; Kim, Gun Yeup

    2015-01-01

    Classical statistical mechanics of the molecular optics theory proposed by Buckingham [A. D. Buckingham and J. A. Pople, Proc. Phys. Soc. A 68, 905 (1955)] has been extended to describe the field induced molecular orientational polarization effects on nonlinear optics. In this paper, we present the generalized molecular orientational nonlinear optical processes (MONLO) through the calculation of the classical orientational averaging using the Boltzmann type time-averaged orientational interaction energy in the randomly oriented molecular system under the influence of applied electric fields. The focal points of the calculation are (1) the derivation of rigorous tensorial components of the effective molecular hyperpolarizabilities, (2) the molecular orientational polarizations and the electronic polarizations including the well-known third-order dc polarization, dc electric field induced Kerr effect (dc Kerr effect), optical Kerr effect (OKE), dc electric field induced second harmonic generation (EFISH), degenerate four wave mixing (DFWM) and third harmonic generation (THG). We also present some of the new predictive MONLO processes. For second-order MONLO, second-order optical rectification (SOR), Pockels effect and difference frequency generation (DFG) are described in terms of the anisotropic coefficients of first hyperpolarizability. And, for third-order MONLO, third-order optical rectification (TOR), dc electric field induced difference frequency generation (EFIDFG) and pump-probe transmission are presented

  19. Credit Risk Evaluation of Swedish SMEs : A Banking Sector Perspective

    OpenAIRE

    Hörstedt, Maria; Linjamaa, Johanna

    2015-01-01

    As a result from the latest financial crisis, the banking industry has undergone major modifications during the last years in order to limit banks’ risks. A vast majority of existing literature tends to focus upon credit risk evaluation methods and techniques mainly concerning quantitative measures and large companies. Thus, the lack of research regarding credit risk evaluation of SMEs is profound, especially considering Sweden. With the dominant market share of SMEs compared to large corpora...

  20. Evaluation of severe accident risk in the Pickering a risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dinnie, K.S.; Raina, V.M.

    1997-01-01

    The nature of the design of commercial power plants is such that significant impacts on public health can only occur if a number of barriers fail. Rigorous design and licensing requirements ensure that the more likely accidents do not fail all these barriers and their contribution to risk is likely to be small. The task of estimating accident risk must, therefore, focus more towards those less likely but potentially more serious combinations of failures that are characterized by the following: a) a large release of fission products into the containment atmosphere, b) a breach in the containment envelope, and c) the existence of a driving force to expel the containment atmosphere to the outside environment. The likelihood of such conditions existing simultaneously during the course of an accident is expected to be small, such that experience and data regarding the behaviour of plant systems under such conditions is sparse or non-existent. The challenge of Probabilistic Safety Assessments (PSAs) is to examine the potential for severe accidents using approaches that are sufficiently detailed and realistic to provide valid information regarding plant risk and susceptibilities, while simple enough to keep the analysis manageable. This paper outlines the key features of the Pickering A Risk Assessment (PARA) (1) and the manner in which it addresses these issues, and provides some insights into the results and conclusions drawn from the study. (author)

  1. HOW INTERNAL RISK - BASED AUDIT APPRAISES THE EVALUATION OF RISKS MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Dorosh

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with the nature and function of the internal risk-based audit process approach to create patterns of risks and methods of evaluation. Deals with the relationship between the level of maturity of the risk of the company and the method of risk-based internal audit. it was emphasized that internal auditing provides an independent and objective opinion to an organization’s management as to whether its risks are being managed to acceptable levels.

  2. EVALUATION OF RISK FACTORS IN ACUTE STROKE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Putta

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Cerebrovascular disease is the third most common cause of death in the developed world after cancer and ischemic heart disease. In India, community surveys have shown a crude prevalence rate of 200 per 100000 population for hemiplegia. Aims and objectives: Identification of risk factors for c erebrovascular disease. Materials and Methods: Inclusion Criteria: Cases of acute stroke admitted in S.V.R.R.G.G.H, Tirupati were taken for the study. Exclusion Criteria: Head injury cases, neoplasm cases producing cerebrovascular disease were excluded. Re sults: Stroke was more common in male, 54% patients were male 46% were female. It was more common in 6 th and 7 th decade. More common risk factors were hypertension followed by smoking, diabetes mellitus. More common pathology was infarction. Conclusion: Com mon risk factors for acute stroke are hypertension, smoking, diabetes mellitus, alcoholism, obesity, cardiac disease. Stroke was confirmed by CT scan of brain.

  3. Evaluation of the field relevance of several injury risk functions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prasad, Priya; Mertz, Harold J; Dalmotas, Danius J; Augenstein, Jeffrey S; Diggs, Kennerly

    2010-11-01

    An evaluation of the four injury risk curves proposed in the NHTSA NCAP for estimating the risk of AIS>= 3 injuries to the head, neck, chest and AIS>=2 injury to the Knee-Thigh-Hip (KTH) complex has been conducted. The predicted injury risk to the four body regions based on driver dummy responses in over 300 frontal NCAP tests were compared against those to drivers involved in real-world crashes of similar severity as represented in the NASS. The results of the study show that the predicted injury risks to the head and chest were slightly below those in NASS, and the predicted risk for the knee-thigh-hip complex was substantially below that observed in the NASS. The predicted risk for the neck by the Nij curve was greater than the observed risk in NASS by an order of magnitude due to the Nij risk curve predicting a non-zero risk when Nij = 0. An alternative and published Nte risk curve produced a risk estimate consistent with the NASS estimate of neck injury. Similarly, an alternative and published chest injury risk curve produced a risk estimate that was within the bounds of the NASS estimates. No published risk curve for femur compressive load could be found that would give risk estimates consistent with the range of the NASS estimates. Additional work on developing a femur compressive load risk curve is recommended.

  4. Evaluating the risks of clinical research: direct comparative analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rid, Annette; Abdoler, Emily; Roberson-Nay, Roxann; Pine, Daniel S; Wendler, David

    2014-09-01

    Many guidelines and regulations allow children and adolescents to be enrolled in research without the prospect of clinical benefit when it poses minimal risk. However, few systematic methods exist to determine when research risks are minimal. This situation has led to significant variation in minimal risk judgments, raising concern that some children are not being adequately protected. To address this concern, we describe a new method for implementing the widely endorsed "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk. This standard defines research risks as minimal when they do not exceed the risks posed by daily life activities or routine examinations. This study employed a conceptual and normative analysis, and use of an illustrative example. Different risks are composed of the same basic elements: Type, likelihood, and magnitude of harm. Hence, one can compare the risks of research and the risks of daily life by comparing the respective basic elements with each other. We use this insight to develop a systematic method, direct comparative analysis, for implementing the "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk. The method offers a way of evaluating research procedures that pose the same types of risk as daily life activities, such as the risk of experiencing anxiety, stress, or other psychological harm. We thus illustrate how direct comparative analysis can be applied in practice by using it to evaluate whether the anxiety induced by a respiratory CO2 challenge poses minimal or greater than minimal risks in children and adolescents. Direct comparative analysis is a systematic method for applying the "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk to research procedures that pose the same types of risk as daily life activities. It thereby offers a method to protect children and adolescents in research, while ensuring that important studies are not blocked because of unwarranted concerns about research risks.

  5. Evaluating a Health Risk Reduction Program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagelberg, Daniel B.

    1981-01-01

    A health risk reduction program at Bowling Green State University (Ohio) tested the efficacy of peer education against the efficacy of returning (by mail) health questionnaire results. A peer health education program did not appear to be effective in changing student attitudes or lifestyles; however, the research methodology may not have been…

  6. Research items regarding seismic residual risk evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2013-08-15

    After learning the Fukushima Dai-ichi NPP severe accidents in 2011, the government investigation committee proposed the effective use of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), and now it is required to establish new safety rules reflecting the results of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) and proposed severe accident measures. Since the Seismic Design Guide has been revised on September 19, 2006, JNES has been discussing seismic PRA (Levels 1-3) methods to review licensees' residual risk assessment while preparing seismic PRA models. Meanwhile, new safety standards for light water reactors are to be issued and enforced on July 2013, which require the residual risk of tsunami, in addition to earthquakes, should be lowered as much as possible. The Fukushima accidents raised the problems related to risk assessment, e.g. approaches based on multi-hazard (earthquake and tsunami), multi-unit, multi-site, and equipment's common cause failure. This fiscal year, while performing seismic and/or tsunami PRA to work on these problems, JNES picked up the equipment whose failure greatly contribute to core damage, surveyed accident management measures on those equipment as well as effectiveness to reduce core damage probability. (author)

  7. Preoperative evaluation : risk management and implementation aspects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klei, W.A. van

    2002-01-01

    In preoperative risk management the anesthesiologist uses diagnostic information to estimate the probability of outcomes and to decide on the anesthetic strategy in a particular patient. The aim of this thesis was explore to what extent simple patient characteristics, particularly obtained from

  8. A Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Model for Sustainability Risk Evaluation of PPP Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Libiao Bai

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Evaluating the sustainability risk level of public–private partnership (PPP projects can reduce project risk incidents and achieve the sustainable development of the organization. However, the existing studies about PPP projects risk management mainly focus on exploring the impact of financial and revenue risks but ignore the sustainability risks, causing the concept of “sustainability” to be missing while evaluating the risk level of PPP projects. To evaluate the sustainability risk level and achieve the most important objective of providing a reference for the public and private sectors when making decisions on PPP project management, this paper constructs a factor system of sustainability risk of PPP projects based on an extensive literature review and develops a mathematical model based on the methods of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model (FCEM and failure mode, effects and criticality analysis (FMECA for evaluating the sustainability risk level of PPP projects. In addition, this paper conducts computational experiment based on a questionnaire survey to verify the effectiveness and feasibility of this proposed model. The results suggest that this model is reasonable for evaluating the sustainability risk level of PPP projects. To our knowledge, this paper is the first study to evaluate the sustainability risk of PPP projects, which would not only enrich the theories of project risk management, but also serve as a reference for the public and private sectors for the sustainable planning and development. Keywords: sustainability risk eva

  9. Designing and evaluating risk-based surveillance systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Willeberg, Preben; Nielsen, Liza Rosenbaum; Salman, Mo

    2012-01-01

    Risk-based surveillance systems reveal occurrence of disease or infection in a sample of population units, which are selected on the basis of risk factors for the condition under study. The purpose of such systems for supporting practical animal disease policy formulations and management decisions...... with prudent use of resources while maintaining acceptable system performance. High-risk category units are selected for testing by identification of the presence of specific high-risk factor(s), while disregarding other factors that might also influence the risk. On this basis we argue that the most...... applicable risk estimate for use in designing and evaluating a risk-based surveillance system would be a crude (unadjusted) relative risk, odds ratio or apparent prevalence. Risk estimates found in the published literature, however, are often the results of multivariable analyses implicitly adjusting...

  10. A Scalable Distribution Network Risk Evaluation Framework via Symbolic Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Kai; Liu, Jian; Liu, Kaipei; Tan, Tianyuan

    2015-01-01

    Background Evaluations of electric power distribution network risks must address the problems of incomplete information and changing dynamics. A risk evaluation framework should be adaptable to a specific situation and an evolving understanding of risk. Methods This study investigates the use of symbolic dynamics to abstract raw data. After introducing symbolic dynamics operators, Kolmogorov-Sinai entropy and Kullback-Leibler relative entropy are used to quantitatively evaluate relationships between risk sub-factors and main factors. For layered risk indicators, where the factors are categorized into four main factors – device, structure, load and special operation – a merging algorithm using operators to calculate the risk factors is discussed. Finally, an example from the Sanya Power Company is given to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed method. Conclusion Distribution networks are exposed and can be affected by many things. The topology and the operating mode of a distribution network are dynamic, so the faults and their consequences are probabilistic. PMID:25789859

  11. Evaluating investments in renewable energy under policy risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gatzert, Nadine; Vogl, Nikolai

    2016-01-01

    The considerable amount of required infrastructure and renewable energy investments expected in the forthcoming years also implies an increasingly relevant contribution of private and institutional investors. In this context, especially regulatory and policy risks have been shown to play a major role for investors when evaluating investments in renewable energy and should thus also be taken into account in risk assessment and when deriving risk-return profiles. In this paper, we provide a stochastic model framework to quantify policy risks associated with renewable energy investments (e.g. a retrospective reduction of a feed-in tariff), thereby also taking into account energy price risk, resource risk, and inflation risk. The model is illustrated by means of simulations and scenario analyses, and it makes use of expert estimates and fuzzy set theory for quantifying policy risks. Our numerical results for a portfolio of onshore wind farms in Germany and France show that policy risk can strongly impact risk-return profiles, and that cross-country diversification effects can considerably decrease the overall risk for investors. - Highlights: •Quantification of policy risks associated with renewable energy investments. •Results emphasize that policy risk has a major impact on risk and return. •Study of the cross-country diversification potential. •Cross-country diversification can considerably decrease the risk for an investor.

  12. Risk identification and evaluation of customer collaboration in product development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xuefeng Zhang

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to identify risk factors that caused by customer collaboration in new product development systematically, and propose an approach to judge which risk factors are critical and catch substantial attention. Design/methodology/approach: This study identifies risk factors according to the results of case studies of enterprises in china. On this basis, an improved rough number approach is put forward to evaluate the importance of risk factors. Findings: Firstly, classify risk factors into three aspects. Then, present a risk factor set, which include thirty-seven risk factors. At last, determine which risk factors are critical by using an improved rough number approach. Originality/value: Considering there are few researches studying comprehensive risk factors of customer collaboration and assessing them, this paper explores a risk factor set of customer collaboration in product development stage, and proposes a novel approach, which can help to solve the problem of subjective, vague and lack of prior information of evaluation, to evaluate risk factors.

  13. Microclimate risk evaluation in agroindustrial work environments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Monarca, D.; Porceddu, P.; Cecchini, M.; Babucci, V.

    2005-01-01

    The concept of workers' safety includes not only the prevention from accidents, as a result of improvements in the devices utilised, but also their welfare and comfort microclimate, i.e., the complex of parameters that affect the thermal exchange between workers and the surrounding environment is one of the main factors that affect the working environment. The paper describes the main risk assessment methodologies and the main actions to be taken for improving the working environment and workers' personal comfort [it

  14. Prometheus unbound - challenges of risk evaluation, risk classification, and risk management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Klinke, A.; Renn, O.

    1999-11-01

    For dealing with risks in a rational fashion, it is necessary to characterize risks and use the parameters of characterization as tools for designing appropriate actions. This reports suggests a set of criteria that one can use in evaluating risks. These criteria include: - Damage potential, i.e. the amount of damage that the hazard can cause; - probability of occurrence, i.e. the likelihood that a specific damage will occur; - incertitude, i.e., the remaining uncertainties that are not covered by the assessment of probabilities (subdivided in statistical uncertainties, genuine uncertainty, and ignorance); - ubiquity which defines the geographic dispersion of potential damages (intragenerational justice); - persistency which defines the temporal extension of potential damages (intergenerational justice); - irreversibility which describes the impossible restoration of the situation to the state before the damage occurred (possible restoration are e.g. reforestation and cleaning of water); - delay effects which characterize the time of latency between the initial event and the actual impact of damage. The time of latency could be of physical, chemical or biological nature; and - potential of mobilization which is understood as violation of individual, social or cultural interests and values generating social conflicts and psychological reactions by affected people. (orig.)

  15. Evaluating the benefits of risk prevention initiatives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Baldassarre, G.

    2012-04-01

    The likelihood and adverse impacts of water-related disasters, such as floods and landslides, are increasing in many countries because of changes in climate and land-use. This presentation illustrates some preliminary results of a comprehensive demonstration of the benefits of risk prevention measures, carried out within the European FP7 KULTURisk project. The study is performed by using a variety of case studies characterised by diverse socio-economic contexts, different types of water-related hazards (floods, debris flows and landslides, storm surges) and space-time scales. In particular, the benefits of state-of-the-art prevention initiatives, such as early warning systems, non-structural options (e.g. mapping and planning), risk transfer strategies (e.g. insurance policy), and structural measures, are showed. Lastly, the importance of homogenising criteria to create hazard inventories and build memory, efficient risk communication and warning methods as well as active dialogue with and between public and private stakeholders, is highlighted.

  16. Fast and Rigorous Assignment Algorithm Multiple Preference and Calculation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ümit Çiftçi

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available The goal of paper is to develop an algorithm that evaluates students then places them depending on their desired choices according to dependant preferences. The developed algorithm is also used to implement software. The success and accuracy of the software as well as the algorithm are tested by applying it to ability test at Beykent University. This ability test is repeated several times in order to fill all available places at Fine Art Faculty departments in every academic year. It has been shown that this algorithm is very fast and rigorous after application of 2008-2009 and 2009-20010 academic years.Key Words: Assignment algorithm, student placement, ability test

  17. Evaluation of test intervals strategies with a risk monitor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soerman, J.

    2005-01-01

    The Swedish nuclear power utility Oskarshamn Power Group (OKG), is investigating how the use of a risk monitor can facilitate and improve risk-informed decision-making at their nuclear power plants. The intent is to evaluate if risk-informed decision-making can be accepted. A pilot project was initiated and carried out in 2004. The project included investigating if a risk monitor can be used for optimising test intervals for diesel- and gas turbine generators with regard to risk level. The Oskarhamn 2 (O2), PSA Level 1 model was converted into a risk monitor using RiskSpectrum RiskWatcher (RSRW) software. The converted PSA model included the complete PSA model for the power operation mode. RSRW then performs a complete requantification for every analysis. Time dependent reliability data are taken into account, i.e. a shorter test interval will increases the components availability (possibility to e.g. start on demand). The converted O2 model was then used to investigate whether it would be possible to balance longer test intervals for diesel generators, gas turbine generators and high pressure injection system with shorter test intervals for the low pressure injection system, while maintaining a low risk level at the plant. The results show that a new mixture of test intervals can be implemented with only marginally changes in the risk calculated with the risk monitor model. The results indicate that the total number of test activities for the systems included in the pilot study could be reduced by 20% with a maintained level of risk. A risk monitor taking into account the impact from test intervals in availability calculations for components is well suited for evaluation of test interval strategies. It also enables the analyst to evaluate the risk level over a period of time including the impact the actual status of the plant may have on the risk level. (author)

  18. Rigor or mortis: best practices for preclinical research in neuroscience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steward, Oswald; Balice-Gordon, Rita

    2014-11-05

    Numerous recent reports document a lack of reproducibility of preclinical studies, raising concerns about potential lack of rigor. Examples of lack of rigor have been extensively documented and proposals for practices to improve rigor are appearing. Here, we discuss some of the details and implications of previously proposed best practices and consider some new ones, focusing on preclinical studies relevant to human neurological and psychiatric disorders. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. [Experimental study of restiffening of the rigor mortis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, X; Li, M; Liao, Z G; Yi, X F; Peng, X M

    2001-11-01

    To observe changes of the length of sarcomere of rat when restiffening. We measured the length of sarcomere of quadriceps in 40 rats in different condition by scanning electron microscope. The length of sarcomere of rigor mortis without destroy is obviously shorter than that of restiffening. The length of sarcomere is negatively correlative to the intensity of rigor mortis. Measuring the length of sarcomere can determine the intensity of rigor mortis and provide evidence for estimation of time since death.

  20. Risk evaluation of remedial alternatives for the Hanford Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clark, S.W.; Lane, N.K.; Swenson, L.

    1994-01-01

    Risk assessment is one of the many tools used to evaluate and select remedial alternatives and evaluate the risk associated with selected remedial alternatives during and after implementation. The risk evaluation of remedial alternatives (RERA) is performed to ensure selected alternatives are protective of human health and the environment. Final remedy selection is promulgated in a record of decision (ROD) and risks of the selected alternatives are documented. Included in the ROD documentation are the risk-related analyses for long-term effectiveness, short-term effectiveness, and overall protection of human health and the environment including how a remedy will eliminate, reduce or control risks and whether exposure will be reduced to acceptable levels. A major goal of RERA in the process leading to a ROD is to provide decision-makers with specific risk information that may be needed to choose among alternatives. For the Hanford Site, there are many considerations that must be addressed from a risk perspective. These include the large size of the Hanford Site, the presence of both chemical and radionuclide contamination, one likelihood of many analogues sites, public and worker health and safety, and stakeholder concern with ecological impacts from site contamination and remedial actions. A RERA methodology has been promulgated to (1) identify the points in the process leading to a ROD where risk assessment input is either required or desirable and (2) provide guidance on how to evaluate risks associated with remedial alternatives under consideration. The methodology and evaluations parallel EPA guidance requiring consideration of short-term impacts and the overall protectiveness of remedial actions for evaluating potential human health and ecological risks during selection of remedial alternatives, implementation of remedial measures, and following completion of remedial action

  1. Health risk evaluation of nitrogen oxides

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berglund, M; Ewetz, L; Gustafsson, L; Moldeus, P; Pershagen, G; Victorin, K [Karolinska Inst., Stockholm (Sweden). Inst. of Environmental Medicine

    1996-12-31

    At the request of the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency a criteria document on nitrogen oxides has been prepared, and is intended to serve as a basis for revised air quality standards in Sweden. The criteria document is based on a thorough literature survey, and the health risk assessment is summarized in this presentation. The present standard for nitrogen dioxide (NO{sub 2}) is 110 {mu}g/m{sup 3} as 1-hour mean (98th percentile); 75 {mu}g/m{sup 3} as 24- hour mean (98th percentile); and 50 {mu}g/m{sup 3} as 6-month mean (arithmetic eman during winter half-year). (author)

  2. Health risk evaluation of nitrogen oxides

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berglund, M.; Ewetz, L.; Gustafsson, L.; Moldeus, P.; Pershagen, G.; Victorin, K. [Karolinska Inst., Stockholm (Sweden). Inst. of Environmental Medicine

    1995-12-31

    At the request of the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency a criteria document on nitrogen oxides has been prepared, and is intended to serve as a basis for revised air quality standards in Sweden. The criteria document is based on a thorough literature survey, and the health risk assessment is summarized in this presentation. The present standard for nitrogen dioxide (NO{sub 2}) is 110 {mu}g/m{sup 3} as 1-hour mean (98th percentile); 75 {mu}g/m{sup 3} as 24- hour mean (98th percentile); and 50 {mu}g/m{sup 3} as 6-month mean (arithmetic eman during winter half-year). (author)

  3. Chemical risk evaluation data sources summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carrillo, M.

    2013-01-01

    The power point presentation is about danger identification, threshold, data concentration PreR, data concentration PosT, timely and probabilistic estimation, deterministic and precise estimates, consumers loyal, Probabilistic models, Random sampling (Monte Carlo simulation), modeling for the evaluation of acute and chronic dietary, dietary exposure assessments acute

  4. Evaluation of risk effective STIs with specific application to diesels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vesely, W.E.; Samanta, P.K.; Ginzburg, T.

    1987-01-01

    From a risk standpoint, the objective of surveillance tests is to control the risk arising from failures which can occur while the component is on standby. At the same time, risks caused by the test from test-caused failures and test-caused degradations need also to be controlled. Risk-acceptable test intervals balance these risks in an attempt to achieve an acceptable low, overall risk. Risk and reliability approaches are presented which allow risk-acceptable test intervals to be determined for any component. To provide focus for the approaches, diesels are specifically evaluated, however, the approaches can be applied not only to diesels, but to any component with suitable data. Incorporation of the approaches in personal computer (PC) software is discussed, which can provide tools for the regulator or plant personnel for determining acceptable diesel test intervals for any plant specific or generic application. The FRANTIC III computer code was run to validate the approaches and to evaluate specific issues associated with determining risk effective test intervals for diesels. Using the approaches presented, diesel accident unavailability can be more effectively monitored and be controlled on a plant-specific or generic basis. Test intervals can be made more risk effective than they are now, producing more acceptable accident unavailabilities. The methods presented are one step toward performance-based technical specifications, which more directly control risks

  5. Evaluating shielding effectiveness for reducing space radiation cancer risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cucinotta, Francis A.; Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Ren, Lei

    2006-01-01

    We discuss calculations of probability distribution functions (PDF) representing uncertainties in projecting fatal cancer risk from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar particle events (SPE). The PDFs are used in significance tests for evaluating the effectiveness of potential radiation shielding approaches. Uncertainties in risk coefficients determined from epidemiology data, dose and dose-rate reduction factors, quality factors, and physics models of radiation environments are considered in models of cancer risk PDFs. Competing mortality risks and functional correlations in radiation quality factor uncertainties are included in the calculations. We show that the cancer risk uncertainty, defined as the ratio of the upper value of 95% confidence interval (CI) to the point estimate is about 4-fold for lunar and Mars mission risk projections. For short-stay lunar missions ( 180d) or Mars missions, GCR risks may exceed radiation risk limits that are based on acceptable levels of risk. For example, the upper 95% CI exceeding 10% fatal risk for males and females on a Mars mission. For reducing GCR cancer risks, shielding materials are marginally effective because of the penetrating nature of GCR and secondary radiation produced in tissue by relativistic particles. At the present time, polyethylene or carbon composite shielding cannot be shown to significantly reduce risk compared to aluminum shielding based on a significance test that accounts for radiobiology uncertainties in GCR risk projection

  6. Youth Suicide Risk: Evaluation and Crisis Intervention

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Catarina Pereira

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Suicide attempts and suicidal behaviours represent a complex problem, with high prevalence in adolescence. The management of youth suicidal behaviour may occur in diverse contexts of child and adolescent psychiatric activity, not only in the emergency room, but also in liaison work and ambulatory consultation. In suicidal crisis intervention it ́s fundamental to involve the youth and the family as this represents a crucial moment for clinical assessment and treatment compliance. This review on child and adolescent suicidal behaviour focuses on characterizing and understanding the developmental features of these behaviours, risk and protection factors and it offers orientations about assessment and acute management of children and adolescents who present with suicidal behaviour.

  7. Evaluation of effective dose and excess lifetime cancer risk from ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Evaluation of effective dose and excess lifetime cancer risk from indoor and outdoor gamma dose rate of university of Port Harcourt Teaching Hospital, Rivers State. ... Therefore, the management of University of Port Harcourt teaching hospital ...

  8. Credit Risk Evaluation System For Nigerian Banks Using Artificial Ne

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    MANKABS

    CREDIT RISK EVALUATION SYSTEM: AN ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK APPROACH of their own experiential .... limitations concern the high computational ... Number of existing credits at this bank. 7. Personal status and sex. 14. Job. 17.

  9. Evaluation of risk management and financial performance of BMW Group

    OpenAIRE

    Mysina, Amira

    2017-01-01

    Effective risk and financial management possess a great challenge for the multinational companies operating globally. Despite the increasing development of diverse hedging strategies against foreign exchange risk, global firms cannot fully foresee and measure the degree of the impact of foreign currency fluctuations. This paper aims to evaluate the exchange risk management and financial performance of the BMW Group from the year 2005 to 2016. Moreover, this paper is devoted to provide explana...

  10. Credit Risk Evaluation System: An Artificial Neural Network Approach

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    On the other hand, this kind of bank's activity is connected with high risk as big amount of bad decisions may even cause bankruptcy. The key problem consists of distinguishing good (that surely repay) and bad (that likely default) credit applicants. Credit risk evaluation is an important and interesting management science ...

  11. Credit Risk Evaluation of Power Market Players with Random Forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Umezawa, Yasushi; Mori, Hiroyuki

    A new method is proposed for credit risk evaluation in a power market. The credit risk evaluation is to measure the bankruptcy risk of the company. The power system liberalization results in new environment that puts emphasis on the profit maximization and the risk minimization. There is a high probability that the electricity transaction causes a risk between companies. So, power market players are concerned with the risk minimization. As a management strategy, a risk index is requested to evaluate the worth of the business partner. This paper proposes a new method for evaluating the credit risk with Random Forest (RF) that makes ensemble learning for the decision tree. RF is one of efficient data mining technique in clustering data and extracting relationship between input and output data. In addition, the method of generating pseudo-measurements is proposed to improve the performance of RF. The proposed method is successfully applied to real financial data of energy utilities in the power market. A comparison is made between the proposed and the conventional methods.

  12. Promoting Rigorous Validation Practice: An Applied Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mattern, Krista D.; Kobrin, Jennifer L.; Camara, Wayne J.

    2012-01-01

    As researchers at a testing organization concerned with the appropriate uses and validity evidence for our assessments, we provide an applied perspective related to the issues raised in the focus article. Newton's proposal for elaborating the consensus definition of validity is offered with the intention to reduce the risks of inadequate…

  13. Evaluation of the Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial Risk Calculator in a High-Risk Screening Population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaplan, David J.; Boorjian, Stephen A.; Ruth, Karen; Egleston, Brian L.; Chen, David Y.T.; Viterbo, Rosalia; Uzzo, Robert G.; Buyyounouski, Mark K.; Raysor, Susan; Giri, Veda N.

    2009-01-01

    Introduction Clinical factors in addition to PSA have been evaluated to improve risk assessment for prostate cancer. The Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial (PCPT) risk calculator provides an assessment of prostate cancer risk based on age, PSA, race, prior biopsy, and family history. This study evaluated the risk calculator in a screening cohort of young, racially diverse, high-risk men with a low baseline PSA enrolled in the Prostate Cancer Risk Assessment Program. Patients and Methods Eligibility for PRAP include men ages 35-69 who are African-American, have a family history of prostate cancer, or have a known BRCA1/2 mutation. PCPT risk scores were determined for PRAP participants, and were compared to observed prostate cancer rates. Results 624 participants were evaluated, including 382 (61.2%) African-American men and 375 (60%) men with a family history of prostate cancer. Median age was 49.0 years (range 34.0-69.0), and median PSA was 0.9 (range 0.1-27.2). PCPT risk score correlated with prostate cancer diagnosis, as the median baseline risk score in patients diagnosed with prostate cancer was 31.3%, versus 14.2% in patients not diagnosed with prostate cancer (p<0.0001). The PCPT calculator similarly stratified the risk of diagnosis of Gleason score ≥7 disease, as the median risk score was 36.2% in patients diagnosed with Gleason ≥7 prostate cancer versus 15.2% in all other participants (p<0.0001). Conclusion PCPT risk calculator score was found to stratify prostate cancer risk in a cohort of young, primarily African-American men with a low baseline PSA. These results support further evaluation of this predictive tool for prostate cancer risk assessment in high-risk men. PMID:19709072

  14. Pipeline integrity handbook risk management and evaluation

    CERN Document Server

    Singh, Ramesh

    2013-01-01

    Based on over 40 years of experience in the field, Ramesh Singh goes beyond corrosion control, providing techniques for addressing present and future integrity issues. Pipeline Integrity Handbook provides pipeline engineers with the tools to evaluate and inspect pipelines, safeguard the life cycle of their pipeline asset and ensure that they are optimizing delivery and capability. Presented in easy-to-use, step-by-step order, Pipeline Integrity Handbook is a quick reference for day-to-day use in identifying key pipeline degradation mechanisms and threats to pipeline integrity. The book begins

  15. Risk-benefit evaluation for large technological systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Okrent, D.

    1979-01-01

    The related topics of risk-benefit analysis, risk analysis, and risk-acceptance criteria (How safe is safe enough) are of growing importance. An interdisciplinary study on various aspects of these topics, including applications to nuclear power, was recently completed at the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA), with the support of the National Science Foundation. In addition to more than 30 topical reports and various open-literature publications, a final report (UCLA-ENG-7777) to the study, titled ''A Generalized Evaluation Approach to Risk--Benefit for Large Technological Systems and Its Application to Nuclear Power'', was issued in early 1978. This article briefly summarizes portions of the final report dealing with general aspects of risk-benefit methodology, societal knowledge and perception of risk, and risk-acceptance criteria

  16. Rigorous patient-prosthesis matching of Perimount Magna aortic bioprosthesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakamura, Hiromasa; Yamaguchi, Hiroki; Takagaki, Masami; Kadowaki, Tasuku; Nakao, Tatsuya; Amano, Atsushi

    2015-03-01

    Severe patient-prosthesis mismatch, defined as effective orifice area index ≤0.65 cm(2) m(-2), has demonstrated poor long-term survival after aortic valve replacement. Reported rates of severe mismatch involving the Perimount Magna aortic bioprosthesis range from 4% to 20% in patients with a small annulus. Between June 2008 and August 2011, 251 patients (mean age 70.5 ± 10.2 years; mean body surface area 1.55 ± 0.19 m(2)) underwent aortic valve replacement with a Perimount Magna bioprosthesis, with or without concomitant procedures. We performed our procedure with rigorous patient-prosthesis matching to implant a valve appropriately sized to each patient, and carried out annular enlargement when a 19-mm valve did not fit. The bioprosthetic performance was evaluated by transthoracic echocardiography predischarge and at 1 and 2 years after surgery. Overall hospital mortality was 1.6%. Only 5 (2.0%) patients required annular enlargement. The mean follow-up period was 19.1 ± 10.7 months with a 98.4% completion rate. Predischarge data showed a mean effective orifice area index of 1.21 ± 0.20 cm(2) m(-2). Moderate mismatch, defined as effective orifice area index ≤0.85 cm(2) m(-2), developed in 4 (1.6%) patients. None developed severe mismatch. Data at 1 and 2 years showed only two cases of moderate mismatch; neither was severe. Rigorous patient-prosthesis matching maximized the performance of the Perimount Magna, and no severe mismatch resulted in this Japanese population of aortic valve replacement patients. © The Author(s) 2014 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.

  17. Early rigorous control interventions can largely reduce dengue outbreak magnitude: experience from Chaozhou, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Tao; Zhu, Guanghu; He, Jianfeng; Song, Tie; Zhang, Meng; Lin, Hualiang; Xiao, Jianpeng; Zeng, Weilin; Li, Xing; Li, Zhihao; Xie, Runsheng; Zhong, Haojie; Wu, Xiaocheng; Hu, Wenbiao; Zhang, Yonghui; Ma, Wenjun

    2017-08-02

    Dengue fever is a severe public heath challenge in south China. A dengue outbreak was reported in Chaozhou city, China in 2015. Intensified interventions were implemented by the government to control the epidemic. However, it is still unknown the degree to which intensified control measures reduced the size of the epidemics, and when should such measures be initiated to reduce the risk of large dengue outbreaks developing? We selected Xiangqiao district as study setting because the majority of the indigenous cases (90.6%) in Chaozhou city were from this district. The numbers of daily indigenous dengue cases in 2015 were collected through the national infectious diseases and vectors surveillance system, and daily Breteau Index (BI) data were reported by local public health department. We used a compartmental dynamic SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected and Removed) model to assess the effectiveness of control interventions, and evaluate the control effect of intervention timing on dengue epidemic. A total of 1250 indigenous dengue cases was reported from Xiangqiao district. The results of SEIR modeling using BI as an indicator of actual control interventions showed a total of 1255 dengue cases, which is close to the reported number (n = 1250). The size and duration of the outbreak were highly sensitive to the intensity and timing of interventions. The more rigorous and earlier the control interventions implemented, the more effective it yielded. Even if the interventions were initiated several weeks after the onset of the dengue outbreak, the interventions were shown to greatly impact the prevalence and duration of dengue outbreak. This study suggests that early implementation of rigorous dengue interventions can effectively reduce the epidemic size and shorten the epidemic duration.

  18. Bringing scientific rigor to community-developed programs in Hong Kong

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fabrizio Cecilia S

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background This paper describes efforts to generate evidence for community-developed programs to enhance family relationships in the Chinese culture of Hong Kong, within the framework of community-based participatory research (CBPR. Methods The CBPR framework was applied to help maximize the development of the intervention and the public health impact of the studies, while enhancing the capabilities of the social service sector partners. Results Four academic-community research teams explored the process of designing and implementing randomized controlled trials in the community. In addition to the expected cultural barriers between teams of academics and community practitioners, with their different outlooks, concerns and languages, the team navigated issues in utilizing the principles of CBPR unique to this Chinese culture. Eventually the team developed tools for adaptation, such as an emphasis on building the relationship while respecting role delineation and an iterative process of defining the non-negotiable parameters of research design while maintaining scientific rigor. Lessons learned include the risk of underemphasizing the size of the operational and skills shift between usual agency practices and research studies, the importance of minimizing non-negotiable parameters in implementing rigorous research designs in the community, and the need to view community capacity enhancement as a long term process. Conclusions The four pilot studies under the FAMILY Project demonstrated that nuanced design adaptations, such as wait list controls and shorter assessments, better served the needs of the community and led to the successful development and vigorous evaluation of a series of preventive, family-oriented interventions in the Chinese culture of Hong Kong.

  19. Bringing scientific rigor to community-developed programs in Hong Kong.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fabrizio, Cecilia S; Hirschmann, Malia R; Lam, Tai Hing; Cheung, Teresa; Pang, Irene; Chan, Sophia; Stewart, Sunita M

    2012-12-31

    This paper describes efforts to generate evidence for community-developed programs to enhance family relationships in the Chinese culture of Hong Kong, within the framework of community-based participatory research (CBPR). The CBPR framework was applied to help maximize the development of the intervention and the public health impact of the studies, while enhancing the capabilities of the social service sector partners. Four academic-community research teams explored the process of designing and implementing randomized controlled trials in the community. In addition to the expected cultural barriers between teams of academics and community practitioners, with their different outlooks, concerns and languages, the team navigated issues in utilizing the principles of CBPR unique to this Chinese culture. Eventually the team developed tools for adaptation, such as an emphasis on building the relationship while respecting role delineation and an iterative process of defining the non-negotiable parameters of research design while maintaining scientific rigor. Lessons learned include the risk of underemphasizing the size of the operational and skills shift between usual agency practices and research studies, the importance of minimizing non-negotiable parameters in implementing rigorous research designs in the community, and the need to view community capacity enhancement as a long term process. The four pilot studies under the FAMILY Project demonstrated that nuanced design adaptations, such as wait list controls and shorter assessments, better served the needs of the community and led to the successful development and vigorous evaluation of a series of preventive, family-oriented interventions in the Chinese culture of Hong Kong.

  20. Early rigorous control interventions can largely reduce dengue outbreak magnitude: experience from Chaozhou, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tao Liu

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Dengue fever is a severe public heath challenge in south China. A dengue outbreak was reported in Chaozhou city, China in 2015. Intensified interventions were implemented by the government to control the epidemic. However, it is still unknown the degree to which intensified control measures reduced the size of the epidemics, and when should such measures be initiated to reduce the risk of large dengue outbreaks developing? Methods We selected Xiangqiao district as study setting because the majority of the indigenous cases (90.6% in Chaozhou city were from this district. The numbers of daily indigenous dengue cases in 2015 were collected through the national infectious diseases and vectors surveillance system, and daily Breteau Index (BI data were reported by local public health department. We used a compartmental dynamic SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected and Removed model to assess the effectiveness of control interventions, and evaluate the control effect of intervention timing on dengue epidemic. Results A total of 1250 indigenous dengue cases was reported from Xiangqiao district. The results of SEIR modeling using BI as an indicator of actual control interventions showed a total of 1255 dengue cases, which is close to the reported number (n = 1250. The size and duration of the outbreak were highly sensitive to the intensity and timing of interventions. The more rigorous and earlier the control interventions implemented, the more effective it yielded. Even if the interventions were initiated several weeks after the onset of the dengue outbreak, the interventions were shown to greatly impact the prevalence and duration of dengue outbreak. Conclusions This study suggests that early implementation of rigorous dengue interventions can effectively reduce the epidemic size and shorten the epidemic duration.

  1. Risk evaluation in biotechnology of environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mazaheri Asadi, M.

    2003-01-01

    It is the Era of technology and many countries are adjusting their economy with it. The research on biotechnology is done with a logarithmic rate at different technologies such as pharmacy, agriculture, environment, food, oil, and etc. The relevant research would result in the production of new materials which are released into the environment. In many developed countries biotechnology is regarded as a firm base for economic development and without doubt plays a determined role in humane wealth and well-being, but this technology should be sustainable and controllable. The producer and consumer of biotechnology must think deeply about this matter and take into account the health and sustain ability of earth and the environment. Evaluation of ecological impacts of micro- organisms and manipulated genetically organism should be considered in all countries of the world and such an activities should be regulated and controlled as it was don in Canada under the supervision of Dept

  2. Long persistence of rigor mortis at constant low temperature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varetto, Lorenzo; Curto, Ombretta

    2005-01-06

    We studied the persistence of rigor mortis by using physical manipulation. We tested the mobility of the knee on 146 corpses kept under refrigeration at Torino's city mortuary at a constant temperature of +4 degrees C. We found a persistence of complete rigor lasting for 10 days in all the cadavers we kept under observation; and in one case, rigor lasted for 16 days. Between the 11th and the 17th days, a progressively increasing number of corpses showed a change from complete into partial rigor (characterized by partial bending of the articulation). After the 17th day, all the remaining corpses showed partial rigor and in the two cadavers that were kept under observation "à outrance" we found the absolute resolution of rigor mortis occurred on the 28th day. Our results prove that it is possible to find a persistence of rigor mortis that is much longer than the expected when environmental conditions resemble average outdoor winter temperatures in temperate zones. Therefore, this datum must be considered when a corpse is found in those environmental conditions so that when estimating the time of death, we are not misled by the long persistence of rigor mortis.

  3. Rigorous solution to Bargmann-Wigner equation for integer spin

    CERN Document Server

    Huang Shi Zhong; Wu Ning; Zheng Zhi Peng

    2002-01-01

    A rigorous method is developed to solve the Bargamann-Wigner equation for arbitrary integer spin in coordinate representation in a step by step way. The Bargmann-Wigner equation is first transformed to a form easier to solve, the new equations are then solved rigorously in coordinate representation, and the wave functions in a closed form are thus derived

  4. Using grounded theory as a method for rigorously reviewing literature

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wolfswinkel, J.; Furtmueller-Ettinger, Elfriede; Wilderom, Celeste P.M.

    2013-01-01

    This paper offers guidance to conducting a rigorous literature review. We present this in the form of a five-stage process in which we use Grounded Theory as a method. We first probe the guidelines explicated by Webster and Watson, and then we show the added value of Grounded Theory for rigorously

  5. Literature Review on Modeling Cyber Networks and Evaluating Cyber Risks.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kelic, Andjelka; Campbell, Philip L

    2018-04-01

    The National Infrastructure Simulations and Analysis Center (NISAC) conducted a literature review on modeling cyber networks and evaluating cyber risks. The literature review explores where modeling is used in the cyber regime and ways that consequence and risk are evaluated. The relevant literature clusters in three different spaces: network security, cyber-physical, and mission assurance. In all approaches, some form of modeling is utilized at varying levels of detail, while the ability to understand consequence varies, as do interpretations of risk. This document summarizes the different literature viewpoints and explores their applicability to securing enterprise networks.

  6. User's guide to the repository intrusion risk evaluation code INTRUDE

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nancarrow, D.J.; Thorne, M.C.

    1986-05-01

    The report, commissioned by the Department of the Environment as part of its radioactive waste management research programme, constitutes the user's guide to the repository intrusion risk evaluation code INTRUDE. It provides an explanation of the mathematical basis of the code, the database used and the operation of the code. INTRUDE is designed to facilitate the estimation of individual risks arising from the possibility of intrusion into shallow land burial facilities for radioactive wastes. It considers a comprehensive inventory of up to 65 long-lived radionuclides and produces risk estimates for up to 20 modes of intrusion and up to 50 times of evaluation. (author)

  7. Hierarchic Analysis Method to Evaluate Rock Burst Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming Ji

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to reasonably evaluate the risk of rock bursts in mines, the factors impacting rock bursts and the existing grading criterion on the risk of rock bursts were studied. By building a model of hierarchic analysis method, the natural factors, technology factors, and management factors that influence rock bursts were analyzed and researched, which determined the degree of each factor’s influence (i.e., weight and comprehensive index. Then the grade of rock burst risk was assessed. The results showed that the assessment level generated by the model accurately reflected the actual risk degree of rock bursts in mines. The model improved the maneuverability and practicability of existing evaluation criteria and also enhanced the accuracy and science of rock burst risk assessment.

  8. An approach to assessing risk in coalbed methane prospect evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vanorsdale, C.R.

    1991-01-01

    The economic evaluation of drilling prospects requires assessing the degree of risk involved and its impact on reserve estimates. In developed areas, risk can be determined in a fairly straightforward manner. In remote wildcat areas, risk can almost never be adequately identified or quantified. Between these extremes lie complex reservoirs -- reservoirs to heterogeneous that each well drilled could exhibit production characteristics unlike those of its neighbors. This paper illustrates the use of a risk assessment methodology in a case study of Fruitland coal prospects in the San Juan Basin of New Mexico. This approach could be applied to coalbed methane prospects or any unconventional or highly heterogeneous reservoir with appropriate modification. The utility of this approach is made apparent in a graphical analysis that relates reserves, rate of return and payout time for managerial or financial presentation. This graphical technique and the underlying risk assessment were used to aid a conservative management team in evaluating participation in a multi-well coalbed project

  9. Risk evaluation and monitoring in multiple sclerosis therapeutics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clanet, Michel C; Wolinsky, Jerry S; Ashton, Raymond J; Hartung, Hans-Peter; Reingold, Stephen C

    2014-09-01

    Risk for multiple sclerosis (MS) disease-modifying therapies (DMT) must be assessed on an ongoing basis. Early concerns regarding the first-approved DMTs for MS have been mitigated, but recently licensed therapies have been linked to possibly greater risks. The objective of this review is to discuss risk assessment in MS therapeutics based on an international workshop and comprehensive literature search and recommend strategies for risk assessment/monitoring. Assessment and perception of therapeutic risks vary between patients, doctors and regulators. Acceptability of risk depends on the magnitude of risk and the demonstrated clinical benefits of any agent. Safety signals must be distinguishable from chance occurrences in a clinical trial and in long-term use of medications. Post-marketing research is crucial for assessing longer-term safety in large patient cohorts. Reporting of adverse events is becoming more proactive, allowing more rapid identification of risks. Communication about therapeutic risks and their relationship to clinical benefit must involve patients in shared decision making. It is difficult to produce a general risk-assessment algorithm for all MS therapies. Specific algorithms are required for each DMT in every treated-patient population. New and evolving risks must be evaluated and communicated rapidly to allow patients and physicians to be well informed and able to share treatment decisions. © The Author(s) 2013.

  10. Food and Drug Administration Evaluation and Cigarette Smoking Risk Perceptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaufman, Annette R.; Waters, Erika A.; Parascandola, Mark; Augustson, Erik M.; Bansal-Travers, Maansi; Hyland, Andrew; Cummings, K. Michael

    2011-01-01

    Objectives: To examine the relationship between a belief about Food and Drug Administration (FDA) safety evaluation of cigarettes and smoking risk perceptions. Methods: A nationally representative, random-digit-dialed telephone survey of 1046 adult current cigarette smokers. Results: Smokers reporting that the FDA does not evaluate cigarettes for…

  11. Seismic risk evaluation for high voltage air insulated substations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Camensig, Carlo; Bresesti, Luca; Clementel, Stefano; Salvetti, Maurizio

    1997-01-01

    This paper describes the results of the analytical and experimental activities performed by ISMES for the evaluation of the structural reliability of electrical substations with respect to seismic events. In the following, the reference station is described along with the methods used to define the site seismic input, the analytical and experimental evaluation of the components' fragility curves and the whole station seismic risk evaluation

  12. RISK ANALYSIS AND EVALUATION FOR CRITICAL LOGISTICAL INFRASTRUCTURE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sascha Düerkop

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Logistical infrastructure builds the backbone of an economy. Without an effective logistical infrastructure in place, the supply for both enterprises and consumers might not be met. But even a high-quality logistical infrastructure can be threatened by risks. Thus, it is important to identify, analyse, and evaluate risks for logistical infrastructure that might threaten logistical processes. Only if those risks are known and their impact estimated, decision makers can implement counteractive measures to reduce risks. In this article, we develop a network-based approach that allows for the evaluation of risks and their consequences onto the logistical network. We will demonstrate the relevance of this approach by applying it to the logistics network of the central German state of Hesse. Even though transport data is extensively tracked and recorded nowadays, typical daily risks, like accidents on a motorway, and extraordinary risks, like a bridge at risk to collapse, terrorist attacks or climate-related catastrophes, are not systematically anticipated. Several studies unveiled recently that the overall impact for an economy of possible failures of single nodes and/or edges in a network are not calculated, and particularly critical edges are not identified in advance. We address this information gap by a method that helps to identify and quantify risks in a given network. To reach this objective, we define a mathematical optimization model that quantifies the current “risk-related costs” of the overall network and quantify the risk by investigating the change of the overall costs in the case a risk is realized.

  13. Risk evaluation system for operational events and inspection findings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lopez G, A.; Godinez S, V.; Lopez M, R.

    2010-10-01

    The Mexican Nuclear Regulatory Commission has developed an adaptation of the US NRC Significance Determination Process (SDP) to evaluate the risk significance of operational events and inspection findings in Laguna Verde nuclear power plant. The Mexican Nuclear Regulatory Commission developed a plant specific flow chart for preliminary screening instead of the open questionnaire used by the US NRC-SDP, with the aim to improve the accuracy of the screening process. Also, the work sheets and support information tables required by the SDP were built up in an Excel application which allows to perform the risk evaluation in an automatic way, focusing the regulator staff efforts in the risk significance analysis instead of the risk calculation tasks. In order to construct this tool a simplified PRA model was developed and validated with the individual plant examination model. This paper shows the Mexican Nuclear Regulatory Commission process and some risk events evaluations performed using the Risk Evaluation System for Operational Events and Inspection Findings (SERHE, by its acronyms in Spanish). (Author)

  14. Risk evaluation of medical and industrial radiation devices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, E.D.; Cunningham, R.E.; Rathbun, P.A.

    1994-03-01

    In 1991, the NRC, Division of Industrial and Medical Nuclear Safety, began a program to evaluate the use of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in regulating medical devices. This program represents an initial step in an overall plant to evaluate the use of PRA in regulating the use of nuclear by-product materials. The NRC envisioned that the use of risk analysis techniques could assist staff in ensuring that the regulatory approach was standardized, understandable, and effective. Traditional methods of assessing risk in nuclear power plants may be inappropriate to use in assessing the use of by-product devices. The approaches used in assessing nuclear reactor risks are equipment-oriented. Secondary attention is paid to the human component, for the most part after critical system failure events have been identified. This paper describes the risk methodology developed by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), initially intended to assess risks associated with the use of the Gamma Knife, a gamma stereotactic radiosurgical device. For relatively new medical devices such as the Gamma Knife, the challenge is to perform a risk analysis with very little quantitative data but with an important human factor component. The method described below provides a basic approach for identifying the most likely risk contributors and evaluating their relative importance. The risk analysis approach developed for the Gamma Knife and described in this paper should be applicable to a broader class of devices in which the human interaction with the device is a prominent factor. In this sense, the method could be a prototypical model of nuclear medical or industrial device risk analysis

  15. Rigor or Reliability and Validity in Qualitative Research: Perspectives, Strategies, Reconceptualization, and Recommendations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cypress, Brigitte S

    Issues are still raised even now in the 21st century by the persistent concern with achieving rigor in qualitative research. There is also a continuing debate about the analogous terms reliability and validity in naturalistic inquiries as opposed to quantitative investigations. This article presents the concept of rigor in qualitative research using a phenomenological study as an exemplar to further illustrate the process. Elaborating on epistemological and theoretical conceptualizations by Lincoln and Guba, strategies congruent with qualitative perspective for ensuring validity to establish the credibility of the study are described. A synthesis of the historical development of validity criteria evident in the literature during the years is explored. Recommendations are made for use of the term rigor instead of trustworthiness and the reconceptualization and renewed use of the concept of reliability and validity in qualitative research, that strategies for ensuring rigor must be built into the qualitative research process rather than evaluated only after the inquiry, and that qualitative researchers and students alike must be proactive and take responsibility in ensuring the rigor of a research study. The insights garnered here will move novice researchers and doctoral students to a better conceptual grasp of the complexity of reliability and validity and its ramifications for qualitative inquiry.

  16. Stochastic evaluation of tsunami inundation and quantitative estimating tsunami risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fukutani, Yo; Anawat, Suppasri; Abe, Yoshi; Imamura, Fumihiko

    2014-01-01

    We performed a stochastic evaluation of tsunami inundation by using results of stochastic tsunami hazard assessment at the Soma port in the Tohoku coastal area. Eleven fault zones along the Japan trench were selected as earthquake faults generating tsunamis. The results show that estimated inundation area of return period about 1200 years had good agreement with that in the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. In addition, we evaluated quantitatively tsunami risk for four types of building; a reinforced concrete, a steel, a brick and a wood at the Soma port by combining the results of inundation assessment and tsunami fragility assessment. The results of quantitative estimating risk would reflect properly vulnerability of the buildings, that the wood building has high risk and the reinforced concrete building has low risk. (author)

  17. Evaluation of AECB-1119, risk of energy production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1978-01-01

    The Inhaber report, 'Risk of Energy Production', is evaluated based on how the conclusions of the report match its objectives, the methodology used to reach the report's conclusions, and the presentation of the report. The authors recommend that a second volume containing the pertinent data used in the report should be published; and that total risks should be calculated ignoring material acquisition, construction and transportation risks, using the actual energy output of the various systems without imposing a backup energy supply, and comparing systems in such a way that death, injury and disease risks may be considered separately. They propose that the Atomic Energy Control Board should show how the report results relate to nuclear safety, and that the AECB should clarify the criteria for evaluating the small probability of a catastrophic nuclear accident. The response of the author of AECB--1119 is given in a separate section

  18. Evaluating intergenerational risks: Probabillity adjusted rank-discounted utilitarianism

    OpenAIRE

    Asheim, Geir B.; Zuber, Stéphane

    2015-01-01

    Climate policies have stochastic consequences that involve a great number of generations. This calls for evaluating social risk (what kind of societies will future people be born into) rather than individual risk (what will happen to people during their own lifetimes). As a response we propose and axiomatize probability adjusted rank-discounted critical-level generalized utilitarianism (PARDCLU), through a key axiom that requires that the social welfare order both be ethical and satisfy first...

  19. Evaluation Method of Collision Risk by Using True Motion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hayama Imazu

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available It is necessary to develop a useful application to use big data like as AIS for safety and efficiency of ship operation. AIS is very useful system to collect targets information, but this information is not effective use yet. The evaluation method of collision risk is one of the cause disturb. Usually the collision risk of ship is evaluated by the value of the Closest Point of Approach (CPA which is related to a relative motion. So, it becomes difficult to find out a safety pass in a congested water. Here, Line of Predicted Collision (LOPC and Obstacle Zone by Target (OZT for evaluation of collision risk are introduced, these values are related to a true motion and it became visible of dangerous place, so it will make easy to find out a safety pass in a congested water.

  20. Risk assessment and remedial policy evaluation using predictive modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Linkov, L.; Schell, W.R.

    1996-01-01

    As a result of nuclear industry operation and accidents, large areas of natural ecosystems have been contaminated by radionuclides and toxic metals. Extensive societal pressure has been exerted to decrease the radiation dose to the population and to the environment. Thus, in making abatement and remediation policy decisions, not only economic costs but also human and environmental risk assessments are desired. This paper introduces a general framework for risk assessment and remedial policy evaluation using predictive modeling. Ecological risk assessment requires evaluation of the radionuclide distribution in ecosystems. The FORESTPATH model is used for predicting the radionuclide fate in forest compartments after deposition as well as for evaluating the efficiency of remedial policies. Time of intervention and radionuclide deposition profile was predicted as being crucial for the remediation efficiency. Risk assessment conducted for a critical group of forest users in Belarus shows that consumption of forest products (berries and mushrooms) leads to about 0.004% risk of a fatal cancer annually. Cost-benefit analysis for forest cleanup suggests that complete removal of organic layer is too expensive for application in Belarus and a better methodology is required. In conclusion, FORESTPATH modeling framework could have wide applications in environmental remediation of radionuclides and toxic metals as well as in dose reconstruction and, risk-assessment

  1. Increased scientific rigor will improve reliability of research and effectiveness of management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sells, Sarah N.; Bassing, Sarah B.; Barker, Kristin J.; Forshee, Shannon C.; Keever, Allison; Goerz, James W.; Mitchell, Michael S.

    2018-01-01

    Rigorous science that produces reliable knowledge is critical to wildlife management because it increases accurate understanding of the natural world and informs management decisions effectively. Application of a rigorous scientific method based on hypothesis testing minimizes unreliable knowledge produced by research. To evaluate the prevalence of scientific rigor in wildlife research, we examined 24 issues of the Journal of Wildlife Management from August 2013 through July 2016. We found 43.9% of studies did not state or imply a priori hypotheses, which are necessary to produce reliable knowledge. We posit that this is due, at least in part, to a lack of common understanding of what rigorous science entails, how it produces more reliable knowledge than other forms of interpreting observations, and how research should be designed to maximize inferential strength and usefulness of application. Current primary literature does not provide succinct explanations of the logic behind a rigorous scientific method or readily applicable guidance for employing it, particularly in wildlife biology; we therefore synthesized an overview of the history, philosophy, and logic that define scientific rigor for biological studies. A rigorous scientific method includes 1) generating a research question from theory and prior observations, 2) developing hypotheses (i.e., plausible biological answers to the question), 3) formulating predictions (i.e., facts that must be true if the hypothesis is true), 4) designing and implementing research to collect data potentially consistent with predictions, 5) evaluating whether predictions are consistent with collected data, and 6) drawing inferences based on the evaluation. Explicitly testing a priori hypotheses reduces overall uncertainty by reducing the number of plausible biological explanations to only those that are logically well supported. Such research also draws inferences that are robust to idiosyncratic observations and

  2. Conceptual Model of Offshore Wind Environmental Risk Evaluation System

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderson, Richard M.; Copping, Andrea E.; Van Cleve, Frances B.; Unwin, Stephen D.; Hamilton, Erin L.

    2010-06-01

    In this report we describe the development of the Environmental Risk Evaluation System (ERES), a risk-informed analytical process for estimating the environmental risks associated with the construction and operation of offshore wind energy generation projects. The development of ERES for offshore wind is closely allied to a concurrent process undertaken to examine environmental effects of marine and hydrokinetic (MHK) energy generation, although specific risk-relevant attributes will differ between the MHK and offshore wind domains. During FY10, a conceptual design of ERES for offshore wind will be developed. The offshore wind ERES mockup described in this report will provide a preview of the functionality of a fully developed risk evaluation system that will use risk assessment techniques to determine priority stressors on aquatic organisms and environments from specific technology aspects, identify key uncertainties underlying high-risk issues, compile a wide-range of data types in an innovative and flexible data organizing scheme, and inform planning and decision processes with a transparent and technically robust decision-support tool. A fully functional version of ERES for offshore wind will be developed in a subsequent phase of the project.

  3. Risk evaluation and mitigation strategies: a focus on belatacept.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sam, Teena; Gabardi, Steven; Tichy, Eric M

    2013-03-01

    To review the elements and components of the risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS) for the costimulation blocker belatacept and associated implications for health care providers working with transplant recipients. The MEDLINE and EMBASE databases (January 1990 to March 2012) were searched by using risk evaluation and mitigation strategies, REMS, belatacept, and organ transplant as search terms (individual organs were also searched). Retrieved articles were supplemented with analysis of information obtained from the Federal Register, the Food and Drug Administration, and the manufacturer of belatacept. REMS are risk-management strategies implemented to ensure that a product's benefits outweigh its known safety risks. Although belatacept offers a novel strategy in maintenance immunosuppression and was associated with superior renal function compared with cyclosporine in phase 2 and 3 trials, belatacept is also associated with increased risk of posttransplant lymphoproliferative disorder and central nervous system infections. The Food and Drug Administration required development of a REMS program as part of belatacept's approval process to ensure safe and appropriate use of the medication and optimization of its risk-benefit profile. Elements of the belatacept REMS include a medication guide that must be dispensed with each infusion and a communication plan. In the management of a complex population of patients, it is essential that those who care for transplant recipients, and patients, recognize the implications of potential and known risks of belatacept. The REMS program aims to facilitate careful selection and education of patients and vigilant monitoring.

  4. Societal risk approach to safeguards design and evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murphey, W.M.; Sherr, T.S.; Bennett, C.A.

    1975-01-01

    A comprehensive rationale for safeguards design and evaluation, and a framework for continuing systematic assessment of the system's effectiveness and efficient allocation of available safeguards resources for balanced protection, were developed. The societal risk approach employed considers the likelihood of successful destructive acts involving nuclear materials or facilities and the magnitude of the effects on society. The safeguards problem is described in terms of events affecting societal risk and adversary actions. Structure of the safeguards system and the evaluation of its adequacy are discussed. Adversary characteristics are also discussed

  5. Development and Justification of a Risk Evaluation Matrix To Guide Chemical Testing Necessary To Select and Qualify Plastic Components Used in Production Systems for Pharmaceutical Products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenke, Dennis

    2015-01-01

    An accelerating trend in the pharmaceutical industry is the use of plastic components in systems used to produce an active pharmaceutical ingredient or a finished drug product. If the active pharmaceutical ingredient, the finished drug product, or any solution used to generate them (for example, a process stream such as media, buffers, eluents, and the like) is contacted by a plastic component at any time during the production process, substances leached from the component may accumulate in the active pharmaceutical ingredient or finished drug product, affecting its safety and/or efficacy. In this article the author develops and justifies a semi-quantitative risk evaluation matrix that is used to determine the amount and rigor of component testing necessary and appropriate to establish that the component is chemically suitable for its intended use. By considering key properties of the component, the contact medium, the contact conditions, and the active pharmaceutical ingredient's or finished drug product's clinical conditions of use, use of the risk evaluation matrix produces a risk score whose magnitude reflects the accumulated risk that the component will interact with the contact solution to such an extent that component-related extractables will accumulate in the active pharmaceutical ingredient or finished drug product as leachables at levels sufficiently high to adversely affect user safety. The magnitude of the risk score establishes the amount and rigor of the testing that is required to select and qualify the component, and such testing is broadly grouped into three categories: baseline assessment, general testing, and full testing (extractables profiling). Production suites used to generate pharmaceuticals can include plastic components. It is possible that substances in the components could leach into manufacturing solutions and accumulate in the pharmaceutical product. In this article the author develops and justifies a semi-quantitative risk

  6. Monitoring muscle optical scattering properties during rigor mortis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xia, J.; Ranasinghesagara, J.; Ku, C. W.; Yao, G.

    2007-09-01

    Sarcomere is the fundamental functional unit in skeletal muscle for force generation. In addition, sarcomere structure is also an important factor that affects the eating quality of muscle food, the meat. The sarcomere structure is altered significantly during rigor mortis, which is the critical stage involved in transforming muscle to meat. In this paper, we investigated optical scattering changes during the rigor process in Sternomandibularis muscles. The measured optical scattering parameters were analyzed along with the simultaneously measured passive tension, pH value, and histology analysis. We found that the temporal changes of optical scattering, passive tension, pH value and fiber microstructures were closely correlated during the rigor process. These results suggested that sarcomere structure changes during rigor mortis can be monitored and characterized by optical scattering, which may find practical applications in predicting meat quality.

  7. Recent Development in Rigorous Computational Methods in Dynamical Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Arai, Zin; Kokubu, Hiroshi; Pilarczyk, Paweł

    2009-01-01

    We highlight selected results of recent development in the area of rigorous computations which use interval arithmetic to analyse dynamical systems. We describe general ideas and selected details of different ways of approach and we provide specific sample applications to illustrate the effectiveness of these methods. The emphasis is put on a topological approach, which combined with rigorous calculations provides a broad range of new methods that yield mathematically rel...

  8. Psychosocial risks evaluation factors: study with higher education teachers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sara Lopes Borges

    2018-02-01

    Method: The study consisted of the administration of two instruments, one for the characterization of the sample and the other for assessing psychosocial risk factors — the Copenhagen Psychosocial Questionnaire — consisting of 76 items (5-point Likert scale, distributed in five dimensions, which measure indicators of exposure to psychosocial risks and their effects. Results: The study included 59 teachers, mostly men (50.8%, aged between 41 - 50 years (45.8%, with master's degree (59%, assistant professors (47.5%; with a stable employment relationship (68%, years of service between 14-17 years (18.7% and teaching between 11 - 17 hours a week (64.4%. The analysis of the various subscales revealed a psychosocial risk, showing that teachers are in a situation of vulnerability. There were significant differences between the risks experienced in public higher education and those experienced in private higher education. Gender, age, academic background, and professional category influenced the type of psychosocial risk. Conclusions: The study confirms the importance of the evaluation of psychosocial risk factors in the exercise of the teaching profession in higher education. It is recognized that it is necessary to assess and manage psychosocial risks in order to promote healthy working conditions, ensure respect and fair treatment, and encourage the promotion of work / family life balance, in order to minimize psychosocial risks and situations of vulnerability in higher education teachers.

  9. PRO development: rigorous qualitative research as the crucial foundation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lasch, Kathryn Eilene; Marquis, Patrick; Vigneux, Marc; Abetz, Linda; Arnould, Benoit; Bayliss, Martha; Crawford, Bruce; Rosa, Kathleen

    2010-10-01

    Recently published articles have described criteria to assess qualitative research in the health field in general, but very few articles have delineated qualitative methods to be used in the development of Patient-Reported Outcomes (PROs). In fact, how PROs are developed with subject input through focus groups and interviews has been given relatively short shrift in the PRO literature when compared to the plethora of quantitative articles on the psychometric properties of PROs. If documented at all, most PRO validation articles give little for the reader to evaluate the content validity of the measures and the credibility and trustworthiness of the methods used to develop them. Increasingly, however, scientists and authorities want to be assured that PRO items and scales have meaning and relevance to subjects. This article was developed by an international, interdisciplinary group of psychologists, psychometricians, regulatory experts, a physician, and a sociologist. It presents rigorous and appropriate qualitative research methods for developing PROs with content validity. The approach described combines an overarching phenomenological theoretical framework with grounded theory data collection and analysis methods to yield PRO items and scales that have content validity.

  10. Experimental approaches for evaluating the invasion risk of biofuel crops

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luke Flory, S; Sollenberger, Lynn E; Lorentz, Kimberly A; Gordon, Doria R

    2012-01-01

    There is growing concern that non-native plants cultivated for bioenergy production might escape and result in harmful invasions in natural areas. Literature-derived assessment tools used to evaluate invasion risk are beneficial for screening, but cannot be used to assess novel cultivars or genotypes. Experimental approaches are needed to help quantify invasion risk but protocols for such tools are lacking. We review current methods for evaluating invasion risk and make recommendations for incremental tests from small-scale experiments to widespread, controlled introductions. First, local experiments should be performed to identify conditions that are favorable for germination, survival, and growth of candidate biofuel crops. Subsequently, experimental introductions in semi-natural areas can be used to assess factors important for establishment and performance such as disturbance, founder population size, and timing of introduction across variable habitats. Finally, to fully characterize invasion risk, experimental introductions should be conducted across the expected geographic range of cultivation over multiple years. Any field-based testing should be accompanied by safeguards and monitoring for early detection of spread. Despite the costs of conducting experimental tests of invasion risk, empirical screening will greatly improve our ability to determine if the benefits of a proposed biofuel species outweigh the projected risks of invasions. (letter)

  11. Evaluation of ergonomic risk factors in manual patient handling ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    WMSDs among nurses in West Bengal, India, evaluates the postural stresses and analyses manual patient handling risks. Responses were collected from 220 nurses by validated questionnaires. The activity and posture analyses were done through photography and by Rapid Entire Body Assessment (REBA). Results ...

  12. Rape Prevention with College Men: Evaluating Risk Status

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephens, Kari A.; George, William H.

    2009-01-01

    This study evaluates the effectiveness of a theoretically based rape prevention intervention with college men who were at high or low risk to perpetrate sexually coercive behavior. Participants (N = 146) are randomly assigned to the intervention or control group. Outcomes include rape myth acceptance, victim empathy, attraction to sexual…

  13. Evaluation of forest management systems under risk of wildfire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kari Hyytiainen; Robert G. Haight

    2010-01-01

    We evaluate the economic efficiency of even- and uneven-aged management systems under risk of wildfire. The management problems are formulated for a mixed-conifer stand and approximations of the optimal solutions are obtained using simulation optimization. The Northern Idaho variant of the Forest Vegetation Simulator and its Fire and Fuels Extension is used to predict...

  14. Evaluating the Security Risks of System Using Hidden Markov Models

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    System security assessment tools are either restricted to manual risk evaluation methodologies that are not appropriate for real-time application or used to determine the impact of certain events on the security status of networked systems. In this paper, we determine the strength of computer systems from the perspective of ...

  15. Market Microstructure Effects on Firm Default Risk Evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Flavia Barsotti

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Default probability is a fundamental variable determining the credit worthiness of a firm and equity volatility estimation plays a key role in its evaluation. Assuming a structural credit risk modeling approach, we study the impact of choosing different non parametric equity volatility estimators on default probability evaluation, when market microstructure noise is considered. A general stochastic volatility framework with jumps for the underlying asset dynamics is defined inside a Merton-like structural model. To estimate the volatility risk component of a firm we use high-frequency equity data: market microstructure noise is introduced as a direct effect of observing noisy high-frequency equity prices. A Monte Carlo simulation analysis is conducted to (i test the performance of alternative non-parametric equity volatility estimators in their capability of filtering out the microstructure noise and backing out the true unobservable asset volatility; (ii study the effects of different non-parametric estimation techniques on default probability evaluation. The impact of the non-parametric volatility estimators on risk evaluation is not negligible: a sensitivity analysis defined for alternative values of the leverage parameter and average jumps size reveals that the characteristics of the dataset are crucial to determine which is the proper estimator to consider from a credit risk perspective.

  16. Evaluating Mediterranean Soil Contamination Risks in Selected Hydrological Scenarios.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rosa, de la D.; Crompvoets, J.

    1997-01-01

    This paper reports an attempt of predicting the contamination risk of soils and water as they respond to hydrological changes in the agricultural lands of Sevilla province, Spain. Based on land evaluation methodologies, a semi-empirical model (named Pantanal, as module of the integrated package

  17. A neural network model for credit risk evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khashman, Adnan

    2009-08-01

    Credit scoring is one of the key analytical techniques in credit risk evaluation which has been an active research area in financial risk management. This paper presents a credit risk evaluation system that uses a neural network model based on the back propagation learning algorithm. We train and implement the neural network to decide whether to approve or reject a credit application, using seven learning schemes and real world credit applications from the Australian credit approval datasets. A comparison of the system performance under the different learning schemes is provided, furthermore, we compare the performance of two neural networks; with one and two hidden layers following the ideal learning scheme. Experimental results suggest that neural networks can be effectively used in automatic processing of credit applications.

  18. Operation and evaluation of online risk communication assistant tool, 'ORCAT'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kimura, Hiroshi; Katsumura, Soichiro; Furuta, Kazuo; Matsumura, Kenichi; Tanaka, Hiroshi

    2005-01-01

    Risk communication about the high-level radioactive waste (HLW) disposal is necessary for public acceptance of HLW disposal program. Online Risk Communication Assistant Tool (ORCAT) system is developed in order to support risk communication for high-level radioactive disposal on World Wide Web. We have carried out two test operations of ORCAT system. First test operation is carried out from Jun. 26 to Feb. 13, 2003. After the first operation, we improved the ORCAT system, and carried out the second test operation from Dec. 4 to 22, 2004. In the second test operation, 20 participants replayed the questionnaire about usability of ORCAT system. In consequence, we found that the ORCAT system remains what need to refine, but is evaluated useful to the risk communication about the HLW disposal. (author)

  19. Overcoming Learning Aversion in Evaluating and Managing Uncertain Risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, Louis Anthony Tony

    2015-10-01

    Decision biases can distort cost-benefit evaluations of uncertain risks, leading to risk management policy decisions with predictably high retrospective regret. We argue that well-documented decision biases encourage learning aversion, or predictably suboptimal learning and premature decision making in the face of high uncertainty about the costs, risks, and benefits of proposed changes. Biases such as narrow framing, overconfidence, confirmation bias, optimism bias, ambiguity aversion, and hyperbolic discounting of the immediate costs and delayed benefits of learning, contribute to deficient individual and group learning, avoidance of information seeking, underestimation of the value of further information, and hence needlessly inaccurate risk-cost-benefit estimates and suboptimal risk management decisions. In practice, such biases can create predictable regret in selection of potential risk-reducing regulations. Low-regret learning strategies based on computational reinforcement learning models can potentially overcome some of these suboptimal decision processes by replacing aversion to uncertain probabilities with actions calculated to balance exploration (deliberate experimentation and uncertainty reduction) and exploitation (taking actions to maximize the sum of expected immediate reward, expected discounted future reward, and value of information). We discuss the proposed framework for understanding and overcoming learning aversion and for implementing low-regret learning strategies using regulation of air pollutants with uncertain health effects as an example. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  20. Proposal of risk evaluation methodology for hazardous materials transportation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hartman, Luiz Carlos

    2009-01-01

    The increasing concern with the level of risk associated with the transportation of hazardous materials took some international institutions to pledge efforts in the evaluation of risk in regional level. Following this trend, the objective of this work was to analyze the most recent processes of analysis of risks from road transportation of hazardous materials. In the present work 21 methodologies of analysis of risks, developed by some authors and for diverse localities have been evaluated. Two of them, in special, have been reviewed and discussed: a method recently developed by the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (Nicolet-Monnier and Gheorghe, 1996) and the strategy delineated by the Center for Chemical Process Safety CCPS (1995), taking into consideration the estimate of the individual and social risk. Also, the models of Harwood et al. (1990) and of Ramos (1997), adapted by Hartman (2003) have been applied to the reality of the roads of the state of Sao Paulo. The extension of these methodologies was explored, in order to find its advantages and disadvantages. As a study case the present work considered the ammonia transportation throughout two routes evaluating the reality of the roads of the state of Sao Paulo, including a significant parcel of evaluation in a densely populated area, getting the results using risk, at least, one of the methodologies mentioned above. The innovation proposed by this work was the research, the development and the introduction of two variables to the model considered by Harwood et al. (1990). These variables that influence in the value of the risk are: the age of the driver of truck and the zone of impact that is function type of product, period of the day where the transport was carried and the volume that has been transported. The aim of the proposed modifications is to let the value of the risk more sensible in relation to the type of the product carried and the age of the truck driver. The main related procedural stages

  1. Tenderness of pre- and post rigor lamb longissimus muscle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geesink, Geert; Sujang, Sadi; Koohmaraie, Mohammad

    2011-08-01

    Lamb longissimus muscle (n=6) sections were cooked at different times post mortem (prerigor, at rigor, 1dayp.m., and 7 days p.m.) using two cooking methods. Using a boiling waterbath, samples were either cooked to a core temperature of 70 °C or boiled for 3h. The latter method was meant to reflect the traditional cooking method employed in countries where preparation of prerigor meat is practiced. The time postmortem at which the meat was prepared had a large effect on the tenderness (shear force) of the meat (PCooking prerigor and at rigor meat to 70 °C resulted in higher shear force values than their post rigor counterparts at 1 and 7 days p.m. (9.4 and 9.6 vs. 7.2 and 3.7 kg, respectively). The differences in tenderness between the treatment groups could be largely explained by a difference in contraction status of the meat after cooking and the effect of ageing on tenderness. Cooking pre and at rigor meat resulted in severe muscle contraction as evidenced by the differences in sarcomere length of the cooked samples. Mean sarcomere lengths in the pre and at rigor samples ranged from 1.05 to 1.20 μm. The mean sarcomere length in the post rigor samples was 1.44 μm. Cooking for 3 h at 100 °C did improve the tenderness of pre and at rigor prepared meat as compared to cooking to 70 °C, but not to the extent that ageing did. It is concluded that additional intervention methods are needed to improve the tenderness of prerigor cooked meat. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. The use of current risk analysis tools evaluated towards preventing external domino accidents

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reniers, Genserik L L; Dullaert, W.; Ale, B. J.M.; Soudan, K.

    Risk analysis is an essential tool for company safety policy. Risk analysis consists of identifying and evaluating all possible risks. The efficiency of risk analysis tools depends on the rigueur of identifying and evaluating all possible risks. The diversity in risk analysis procedures is such that

  3. Uso de dados de avaliação para escolha de escolas para um Survey: desafios para a imaginação e o rigor metodológico Uso de datos de evaluación para selección de escuelas para un survey: desafíos para la imaginación y el rigor metodológico The use of evaluation data to select schools for a Survey: challenges to the imagination and methodological rigorousness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cynthia Paes de Carvalho

    2011-03-01

    perspectiva es articular informaciones tanto macro como micro de modo tal a que se pueda viabilizar un análisis relacional de los datos que serán recolectados y poder contribuir, así, para la discusión metodológica en el campo de la sociología de la educación.The text describes and discusses the selection process of schools for a research, which used the results of the external evaluations of the Brazilian school system from 2005, 2006 and 2007. Aiming to deepen the study of the organizations and institutional practices that produce schooling success, we decided to develop a survey at eight schools: four public administrated by the municipality, and four private ones. The research focuses the pedagogical practices and management processes at those schools of the municipality of Rio de Janeiro that are recognized through the excellence of their teaching, considering the results their students achieve in public exams that evaluate their performance. Therefore, we analyzed the results of the various schools, turning the selection process itself a stage of the research. Thereby, we intend to articulate macro and micro information in order to make feasible a relational analysis of the data that shall be collected and contribute to the methodological discussion in the field of sociology of education.

  4. Risk evaluation for protection of the public in radiation accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1967-01-01

    Evaluation of the risk that would be involved in the exposure of the public in the event of a radiation accident requires information on the biological consequences expected of such an exposure. This report defines a range of reference doses of radiation and their corresponding risks to the public in the event of a radiation accident. The reference doses and the considerations on which they were based will be used for assessing the hazards of nuclear installations and for policy decisions by the authorities responsible for measures taken to safeguards the public in the case of a nuclear accident.

  5. Organization of Risk Analysis Codes for Living Evaluations (ORACLE)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Batt, D.L.; MacDonald, P.E.; Sattison, M.B.; Vesely, E.

    1987-01-01

    ORACLE (Organization of Risk Analysis Codes for Living Evaluations) is an integration concept for using risk-based information in United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) applications. Portions of ORACLE are being developed at the Idaho Nationale Engineering Laboratory for the USNRC. The ORACLE concept consists of related databases, software, user interfaces, processes, and quality control checks allowing a wide variety of regulatory problems and activities to be addressed using current, updated PRA information. The ORACLE concept provides for smooth transitions between one code and the next without pre- or post-processing. (orig.)

  6. Risk assessment analysis of the future technical unit dedicated to the evaluation and treatment of motor disabilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grelier, S; Thetio, M; Quentin, V; Achache, V; Sanchez, N; Leroux, V; Durand, E; Pequignot, R

    2011-03-01

    The National Hospital of Saint Maurice (HNSM) for Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation aims at strengthening its position as a pivot rehabilitation and physical therapy center. The opening in 2011 of a new unit for the evaluation and treatment of motor disabilities meets this objective. This project includes several parts: clinical, financial, architectural, organizational, applied clinical research as well as dealing with medical equipments and information system. This study focuses on the risk assessment of this future technical unit. This study was conducted by a group of professionals working for the hospital. It started with the design of a functional model to better comprehend the system to be analyzed. Risk assessment consists in confronting this functional model to a list of dangers in order to determine the vulnerable areas of the system. Then the team designed some scenarios to identify the causes, securities barriers and consequences in order to rank the risks. The analysis targeted various dangers, e.g. political, strategic, financial, economical, marketing, clinical and operational. The team identified more than 70 risky scenarios. For 75% of them the criticality level was deemed initially tolerable and under control or unacceptable. The implementation of an action plan for reducing the level of risks before opening this technical unit brought the system down to an acceptable level at 66%. A year prior to opening this technical unit for the evaluation and treatment of motor disabilities, conducting this preliminary risk assessment, with its exhaustive and rigorous methodology, enabled the concerned professionals to work together around an action plan for reducing the risks. 2011 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  7. Systematic Review of Health Economic Impact Evaluations of Risk Prediction Models : Stop Developing, Start Evaluating

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Giessen, Anoukh; Peters, Jaime; Wilcher, Britni; Hyde, Chris; Moons, Carl; de Wit, Ardine; Koffijberg, Erik

    2017-01-01

    Background: Although health economic evaluations (HEEs) are increasingly common for therapeutic interventions, they appear to be rare for the use of risk prediction models (PMs). Objectives: To evaluate the current state of HEEs of PMs by performing a comprehensive systematic review. Methods: Four

  8. Evaluation of wholesale electric power market rules and financial risk management by agent-based simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Nanpeng

    As U.S. regional electricity markets continue to refine their market structures, designs and rules of operation in various ways, two critical issues are emerging. First, although much experience has been gained and costly and valuable lessons have been learned, there is still a lack of a systematic platform for evaluation of the impact of a new market design from both engineering and economic points of view. Second, the transition from a monopoly paradigm characterized by a guaranteed rate of return to a competitive market created various unfamiliar financial risks for various market participants, especially for the Investor Owned Utilities (IOUs) and Independent Power Producers (IPPs). This dissertation uses agent-based simulation methods to tackle the market rules evaluation and financial risk management problems. The California energy crisis in 2000-01 showed what could happen to an electricity market if it did not go through a comprehensive and rigorous testing before its implementation. Due to the complexity of the market structure, strategic interaction between the participants, and the underlying physics, it is difficult to fully evaluate the implications of potential changes to market rules. This dissertation presents a flexible and integrative method to assess market designs through agent-based simulations. Realistic simulation scenarios on a 225-bus system are constructed for evaluation of the proposed PJM-like market power mitigation rules of the California electricity market. Simulation results show that in the absence of market power mitigation, generation company (GenCo) agents facilitated by Q-learning are able to exploit the market flaws and make significantly higher profits relative to the competitive benchmark. The incorporation of PJM-like local market power mitigation rules is shown to be effective in suppressing the exercise of market power. The importance of financial risk management is exemplified by the recent financial crisis. In this

  9. Estimation of the breaking of rigor mortis by myotonometry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vain, A; Kauppila, R; Vuori, E

    1996-05-31

    Myotonometry was used to detect breaking of rigor mortis. The myotonometer is a new instrument which measures the decaying oscillations of a muscle after a brief mechanical impact. The method gives two numerical parameters for rigor mortis, namely the period and decrement of the oscillations, both of which depend on the time period elapsed after death. In the case of breaking the rigor mortis by muscle lengthening, both the oscillation period and decrement decreased, whereas, shortening the muscle caused the opposite changes. Fourteen h after breaking the stiffness characteristics of the right and left m. biceps brachii, or oscillation periods, were assimilated. However, the values for decrement of the muscle, reflecting the dissipation of mechanical energy, maintained their differences.

  10. Risk evaluation of remedial alternatives for the Hanford Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-09-01

    This document provides guidance on the process of risk evaluation of remedial alternatives (RERA) at the Hanford Site. Remediation activities at the Hanford Site are being conducted pursuant to the Comprehensive Environmental Restoration, Compensation, and Liability Act and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act. This document identifies points in the remedial alternative selection process where risk assessment input is either required or desirable. For each of these points of application, the document identifies issues to consider and address, and suggests possible approaches, techniques, and appropriate levels of detail. The level of detail of a RERA is driven by the need to use risk as a criterion for selecting a remedial alternative. Such a document is needed to ensure that RERA is conducted in a consistent manner, and to prevent restating or creating guidance within each RERA

  11. A risk evaluation model using on-site meteorological data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, C.S.

    1979-01-01

    A model is considered in order to evaluate the potential risk from a nuclear facility directly combining the on site meteorological data. The model is utilized to evaluate the environmental consequences from the routine releases during normal plant operation as well as following postulated accidental releases. The doses to individual and risks to the population-at-large are also analyzed in conjunction with design of rad-waste management and safety systems. It is observed that the conventional analysis, which is done in two separate unaffiliated phases of releases and atmospheric dispersion tends to result in unnecessary over-design of the systems because of high resultant doses calculated by multiplication of two extreme values. (author)

  12. Physiological studies of muscle rigor mortis in the fowl

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakahira, S.; Kaneko, K.; Tanaka, K.

    1990-01-01

    A simple system was developed for continuous measurement of muscle contraction during nor mortis. Longitudinal muscle strips dissected from the Peroneus Longus were suspended in a plastic tube containing liquid paraffin. Mechanical activity was transmitted to a strain-gauge transducer which is connected to a potentiometric pen-recorder. At the onset of measurement 1.2g was loaded on the muscle strip. This model was used to study the muscle response to various treatments during nor mortis. All measurements were carried out under the anaerobic condition at 17°C, except otherwise stated. 1. The present system was found to be quite useful for continuous measurement of muscle rigor course. 2. Muscle contraction under the anaerobic condition at 17°C reached a peak about 2 hours after the onset of measurement and thereafter it relaxed at a slow rate. In contrast, the aerobic condition under a high humidity resulted in a strong rigor, about three times stronger than that in the anaerobic condition. 3. Ultrasonic treatment (37, 000-47, 000Hz) at 25°C for 10 minutes resulted in a moderate muscle rigor. 4. Treatment of muscle strip with 2mM EGTA at 30°C for 30 minutes led to a relaxation of the muscle. 5. The muscle from the birds killed during anesthesia with pentobarbital sodium resulted in a slow rate of rigor, whereas the birds killed one day after hypophysectomy led to a quick muscle rigor as seen in intact controls. 6. A slight muscle rigor was observed when muscle strip was placed in a refrigerator at 0°C for 18.5 hours and thereafter temperature was kept at 17°C. (author)

  13. THE IMPORTANCE OF EVALUATION OF RISK MANAGEMENT IN BUSINESS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SLOBODAN POPOVIĆ

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Economies with dominant private ownership and developed market institutions build their prosperity on a firm`s goal function in a form of maximization owner`s wealth. Financial situation of business organization is most important indicate that shows level of financial health. The creation of value for the owners imply two matters simultaneously competitive advantage and the evaluation of economic effects. Among economic activities, establishes the different types of addiction. In this work authors draw attention to two categories: the functional and stochastic. Case studies will be cash flows of investment and the contribution of the stochastic component of the risk of enterprise value. Methodological dominated analytical and descriptive methods. Management in the process of evaluation of investment seen what happens behind the projections of cash flows and estimates of available chances for possible modifications. The purpose of the discussion in this section refers to the warning that the application of the rules of net present values does not mean the completion of the management process at the moment of the decision on the selection of investments. In this study, we analyze the influence of stochastic risk in the creation of enterprise value, especially if the risk is managed improperly. In this connection, the starting hypothesis is that adequately compensate for risk has a positive effect on new investments and reduce the antagonism of shareholders and other creditors of the company.

  14. The radon in Corsica: evaluation of exposure and associated risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-02-01

    The average level found in Corsica is superior to that one found in France. On the basis of the results of it campaign I.R.S.N.-D.G.S., the French average is of 90 Bq.m 3 against 197 Bq.m 3 for Corsica. The risk of dying from a lung cancer attributable to the radon was estimated at 13 % in France. The evaluation of risk led on Corsica shows a risk attributable to the radon included between 21.5 and 28 %.This evaluation of risk is only a stage. It is important to arrest better the exposure to the radon of the Corsican population. For a good estimation of the levels of radon and thus the impact of this one, additional measures are necessary. The results of the data analysis of exposure allow to guide the choice of the new measures: a campaign on the season effect in Corsica and a completion of the measures in housing are two main axes.Seen the importance of the interaction between the tobacco and the radon, a good estimation of the tobacco customs in Corsica and its evolution in the time seems essential to estimate indeed the impact of the radon in this region. (N.C.)

  15. Comprehensive Evaluation of Altered Systemic Metabolism and Pancreatic Cancer Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-10-01

    09/08/15-08/31/19 0.96 cal. mo. NIH/NCI $168,300 A prospective investigation of the oral microbiome and pancreatic cancer 1.To perform a...and BWHS. 2.To evaluate racial differences in the oral microbiome using 165 AA and 165 EA controls (from the SCCS only), and to identify any racial...risk factors for pancreatic cancer (cigarette smoking, obesity, red meat and processed meat consumption, alcohol consumption, type 2 diabetes) and oral

  16. Risks evaluation and mitigation in the new energetic markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Santos, Afonso Henriques Moreira; Vieira, Daniela Calazans; Krause, Gilson Galvao

    1999-01-01

    The central issue of debate was the need to align the energy sector's options and organization with changing global patterns of economic and social development, characterized by the increasing role played by the private sector, greater integration in the world economy, and new economic and social priorities such as efficiency, decentralization, deregulation, and a closer attention to environmental issues. The aim of the work was to evaluate the Brazilian electric power market risks and the their agents' relationship after the privatization advent

  17. The radiological risks associated with the thorium fuelled HTGR fuel cycle. A comparative risk evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dodd, D.H.; Hienen, J.F.A. van.

    1995-10-01

    This report presents the results of task B.3 of the 'Technology Assessment of the High Temperature Reactor' project. The objective of task B.3 was to evaluate the radiological risks to the general public associated with the sustainable HTGR cycle. Since the technologies to be used at several stages of this fuel cycle are still in the design phase and since a detailed specification of this fuel cycle has not yet been developed, the emphasis was on obtaining a global impression of the risk associated with a generic thorium-based HTGR fuel cycle. This impression was obtained by performing a comparative risk analysis on the basis of data given in the literature. As reference for the comparison a generic uranium fuelled LWR cycle was used. The major benefit with respect to the radiological rsiks of basing the fuel cycle around modular HTGR technology instead of the LWR technology is the increase in reactor safety. The design of the modular HTGR is expected to prevent the release of a significant amount of radioactive material to the environment, and hence early deaths in the surrounding population, during accident conditions. This implies that there is no group risk as defined in the Dutch risk management policy. The major benefit of thorium based fuel cycles over uranium based fuel cycles is the reduction in the radiological risks from unraium mining and milling. The other stages of the nuclear fuel cycle which make a significant contribution to the radiological risks are electricity generation, reprocessing and final disposal. The risks associated with the electricity generation stage are dominated by the risks from fission products, activated corrosion products and the activation products tritium and carbon-14. The risks associated with the reprocessing stage are determined by fission and activation products (including actinides). (orig./WL)

  18. The radiological risks associated with the thorium fuelled HTGR fuel cycle. A comparative risk evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dodd, D.H.; Hienen, J.F.A. van

    1995-10-01

    This report presents the results of task B.3 of the `Technology Assessment of the High Temperature Reactor` project. The objective of task B.3 was to evaluate the radiological risks to the general public associated with the sustainable HTGR cycle. Since the technologies to be used at several stages of this fuel cycle are still in the design phase and since a detailed specification of this fuel cycle has not yet been developed, the emphasis was on obtaining a global impression of the risk associated with a generic thorium-based HTGR fuel cycle. This impression was obtained by performing a comparative risk analysis on the basis of data given in the literature. As reference for the comparison a generic uranium fuelled LWR cycle was used. The major benefit with respect to the radiological rsiks of basing the fuel cycle around modular HTGR technology instead of the LWR technology is the increase in reactor safety. The design of the modular HTGR is expected to prevent the release of a significant amount of radioactive material to the environment, and hence early deaths in the surrounding population, during accident conditions. This implies that there is no group risk as defined in the Dutch risk management policy. The major benefit of thorium based fuel cycles over uranium based fuel cycles is the reduction in the radiological risks from unraium mining and milling. The other stages of the nuclear fuel cycle which make a significant contribution to the radiological risks are electricity generation, reprocessing and final disposal. The risks associated with the electricity generation stage are dominated by the risks from fission products, activated corrosion products and the activation products tritium and carbon-14. The risks associated with the reprocessing stage are determined by fission and activation products (including actinides). (orig./WL).

  19. Overall strategy for risk evaluation and priority setting of risk regulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hokstad, Per; Steiro, Trygve

    2006-01-01

    This paper presents the framework of an approach to support planning and priority setting for risk control. Such an approach could assist government/regulatory authorities in their allocation of resources among different sectors. The term risk will here be used in a very wide sense, and it will include, but not restrict to, the traditional HES (Health, Environment and Safety) concept. An overall classification of risk ('loss categories'), to be used across sectors and directorates is suggested. The risk evaluation includes a number of factors not accounted for in a standard risk assessment, but should be taken into account when authorities set priorities regarding risk control. Sociological, psychological and ethical perspectives are included, and the need for a discourse during the decision process is pinpointed. The paper also discusses the potential inclusion of cost benefit analyses in such an approach. The indicated approach is denoted Risk Across Sectors (RAS), and suggestions regarding the process to implement it are given. Such an implementation process will by itself increase the knowledge and competence of the involved parties

  20. Evaluation of risk of atherosclerosis in Indian adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pandit, Deepa; Chiplonkar, Shashi; Khadilkar, Anuradha; Kinare, Arun; Khadilkar, Vaman; Divate, Uma

    2013-05-01

    To investigate interrelationship of arterial measurements with metabolic syndrome (MS) components and zinc status in apparently healthy Indian adults. Anthropometry and biochemical data were recorded in 110 men and 139 women (25-50 yr). Carotid Intima media thickness (CIMT), stiffness (beta), pulse wave velocity (PWV), elasticity modulus (Ep), and arterial compliance (AC) of the right carotid artery were evaluated ultrasonically. According to definition of MS, subjects were categorized as MS-1, MS-2, MS-3. Further, normal and MS subjects were divided as zinc sufficient and deficient. In all, 12.1% subjects had 3 risk factors for MS. Mean CIMT, beta, Ep and PWV were significantly higher by 6%, 11.6%, 29.5% and 12.4% in subjects with MS than normal (p < 0.05). AC showed significant decline in MS subjects by only 3% than normal (p < 0.05). Serum zinc was inversely correlated with beta, Ep and PWV in both the genders in subjects with MS (p < 0.05). A synergistic effect of serum zinc deficiency with MS further envisages the elevated risk of arterial stiffness. Risk of atherosclerosis is marked by increase in stiffness parameters even in presence of a single MS risk and zinc deficiency may further aggravate the risk indicating need for early diagnosis.

  1. Development and evaluation of an automated fall risk assessment system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Ju Young; Jin, Yinji; Piao, Jinshi; Lee, Sun-Mi

    2016-04-01

    Fall risk assessment is the first step toward prevention, and a risk assessment tool with high validity should be used. This study aimed to develop and validate an automated fall risk assessment system (Auto-FallRAS) to assess fall risks based on electronic medical records (EMRs) without additional data collected or entered by nurses. This study was conducted in a 1335-bed university hospital in Seoul, South Korea. The Auto-FallRAS was developed using 4211 fall-related clinical data extracted from EMRs. Participants included fall patients and non-fall patients (868 and 3472 for the development study; 752 and 3008 for the validation study; and 58 and 232 for validation after clinical application, respectively). The system was evaluated for predictive validity and concurrent validity. The final 10 predictors were included in the logistic regression model for the risk-scoring algorithm. The results of the Auto-FallRAS were shown as high/moderate/low risk on the EMR screen. The predictive validity analyzed after clinical application of the Auto-FallRAS was as follows: sensitivity = 0.95, NPV = 0.97 and Youden index = 0.44. The validity of the Morse Fall Scale assessed by nurses was as follows: sensitivity = 0.68, NPV = 0.88 and Youden index = 0.28. This study found that the Auto-FallRAS results were better than were the nurses' predictions. The advantage of the Auto-FallRAS is that it automatically analyzes information and shows patients' fall risk assessment results without requiring additional time from nurses. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press in association with the International Society for Quality in Health Care; all rights reserved.

  2. Evaluation of the Reproductive and Developmental Risks of Caffeine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brent, Robert L; Christian, Mildred S; Diener, Robert M

    2011-01-01

    A risk analysis of in utero caffeine exposure is presented utilizing epidemiological studies and animal studies dealing with congenital malformation, pregnancy loss, and weight reduction. These effects are of interest to teratologists, because animal studies are useful in their evaluation. Many of the epidemiology studies did not evaluate the impact of the “pregnancy signal,” which identifies healthy pregnancies and permits investigators to identify subjects with low pregnancy risks. The spontaneous abortion epidemiology studies were inconsistent and the majority did not consider the confounding introduced by not considering the pregnancy signal. The animal studies do not support the concept that caffeine is an abortafacient for the wide range of human caffeine exposures. Almost all the congenital malformation epidemiology studies were negative. Animal pharmacokinetic studies indicate that the teratogenic plasma level of caffeine has to reach or exceed 60 µg/ml, which is not attainable from ingesting large amounts of caffeine in foods and beverages. No epidemiological study described the “caffeine teratogenic syndrome.” Six of the 17 recent epidemiology studies dealing with the risk of caffeine and fetal weight reduction were negative. Seven of the positive studies had growth reductions that were clinically insignificant and none of the studies cited the animal literature. Analysis of caffeine's reproductive toxicity considers reproducibility and plausibility of clinical, epidemiological, and animal data. Moderate or even high amounts of beverages and foods containing caffeine do not increase the risks of congenital malformations, miscarriage or growth retardation. Pharmacokinetic studies markedly improve the ability to perform the risk analyses. Birth Defects Res (Part B) 92:152–187, 2011. © 2011 Wiley-Liss, Inc. PMID:21370398

  3. Evaluation and Selection of International Supplier, Underscoring Risk Factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    seyed Mohammad Ali Khatami Firouzabadi

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper evaluates the decision making process for import complete manufactured pieces versus import of partial pieces to assemble in Iran, taking into account the risk factors for a manufacturing company. Since this sort of decision making confront with several risks, it is necessary to establish a process for finding the risks associated with this kind of problems in order to decrease the effects of these risks in the process. Since the problem is classified as a Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM problem, Uncertain Analytical Hierarchy Process (UAHP was used to find the most attractive alternative. Because the alternatives were identified from the first point, a bottom-up procedure was used to organize the hierarchy. In initial stage, the attributes which distinct from the alternatives were obtained by literature review and experts' interviews. Then the attributes were grouped to upper level to establish the criteria. Three criteria were found from this stage. The criteria were product, partners, and environment which they encompassed 12 attributes. Forming the hierarchy and doing the uncertain pairwised comparisons, which considers a range of numbers instead of one single number for declaring the preference between two factors, a Linear Programming (LP model with two types of objective functions were formed for each individual alternative. Each single LP model can express the maximum and minimum value of each individual alternative. The research's results indicate the most appropriate alternative is to import the final product from India. The last preferred one was to import the parts of the final product from India. This study can be a suitable framework in supply chain management and purchasing decisions and risk evaluations because the major parts of manufacturing activities is always to decide about the selection of most preferred strategies for companies.

  4. Reconciling the Rigor-Relevance Dilemma in Intellectual Capital Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andriessen, Daniel

    2004-01-01

    This paper raises the issue of research methodology for intellectual capital and other types of management research by focusing on the dilemma of rigour versus relevance. The more traditional explanatory approach to research often leads to rigorous results that are not of much help to solve practical problems. This paper describes an alternative…

  5. Paper 3: Content and Rigor of Algebra Credit Recovery Courses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walters, Kirk; Stachel, Suzanne

    2014-01-01

    This paper describes the content, organization and rigor of the f2f and online summer algebra courses that were delivered in summers 2011 and 2012. Examining the content of both types of courses is important because research suggests that algebra courses with certain features may be better than others in promoting success for struggling students.…

  6. A rigorous treatment of uncertainty quantification for Silicon damage metrics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Griffin, P.

    2016-01-01

    These report summaries the contributions made by Sandia National Laboratories in support of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Nuclear Data Section (NDS) Technical Meeting (TM) on Nuclear Reaction Data and Uncertainties for Radiation Damage. This work focused on a rigorous treatment of the uncertainties affecting the characterization of the displacement damage seen in silicon semiconductors. (author)

  7. Effects of post mortem temperature on rigor tension, shortening and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Fully developed rigor mortis in muscle is characterised by maximum loss of extensibility. The course of post mortem changes in ostrich muscle was studied by following isometric tension, shortening and change in pH during the first 24 h post mortem within muscle strips from the muscularis gastrocnemius, pars interna at ...

  8. Rigor, vigor, and the study of health disparities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adler, Nancy; Bush, Nicole R; Pantell, Matthew S

    2012-10-16

    Health disparities research spans multiple fields and methods and documents strong links between social disadvantage and poor health. Associations between socioeconomic status (SES) and health are often taken as evidence for the causal impact of SES on health, but alternative explanations, including the impact of health on SES, are plausible. Studies showing the influence of parents' SES on their children's health provide evidence for a causal pathway from SES to health, but have limitations. Health disparities researchers face tradeoffs between "rigor" and "vigor" in designing studies that demonstrate how social disadvantage becomes biologically embedded and results in poorer health. Rigorous designs aim to maximize precision in the measurement of SES and health outcomes through methods that provide the greatest control over temporal ordering and causal direction. To achieve precision, many studies use a single SES predictor and single disease. However, doing so oversimplifies the multifaceted, entwined nature of social disadvantage and may overestimate the impact of that one variable and underestimate the true impact of social disadvantage on health. In addition, SES effects on overall health and functioning are likely to be greater than effects on any one disease. Vigorous designs aim to capture this complexity and maximize ecological validity through more complete assessment of social disadvantage and health status, but may provide less-compelling evidence of causality. Newer approaches to both measurement and analysis may enable enhanced vigor as well as rigor. Incorporating both rigor and vigor into studies will provide a fuller understanding of the causes of health disparities.

  9. A rigorous proof for the Landauer-Büttiker formula

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cornean, Horia Decebal; Jensen, Arne; Moldoveanu, V.

    Recently, Avron et al. shed new light on the question of quantum transport in mesoscopic samples coupled to particle reservoirs by semi-infinite leads. They rigorously treat the case when the sample undergoes an adiabatic evolution thus generating a current through th leads, and prove the so call...

  10. Crash Prediction and Risk Evaluation Based on Traffic Analysis Zones

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cuiping Zhang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Traffic safety evaluation for traffic analysis zones (TAZs plays an important role in transportation safety planning and long-range transportation plan development. This paper aims to present a comprehensive analysis of zonal safety evaluation. First, several criteria are proposed to measure the crash risk at zonal level. Then these criteria are integrated into one measure-average hazard index (AHI, which is used to identify unsafe zones. In addition, the study develops a negative binomial regression model to statistically estimate significant factors for the unsafe zones. The model results indicate that the zonal crash frequency can be associated with several social-economic, demographic, and transportation system factors. The impact of these significant factors on zonal crash is also discussed. The finding of this study suggests that safety evaluation and estimation might benefit engineers and decision makers in identifying high crash locations for potential safety improvements.

  11. Risk Evaluation of Railway Coal Transportation Network Based on Multi Level Grey Evaluation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niu, Wei; Wang, Xifu

    2018-01-01

    The railway transport mode is currently the most important way of coal transportation, and now China’s railway coal transportation network has become increasingly perfect, but there is still insufficient capacity, some lines close to saturation and other issues. In this paper, the theory and method of risk assessment, analytic hierarchy process and multi-level gray evaluation model are applied to the risk evaluation of coal railway transportation network in China. Based on the example analysis of Shanxi railway coal transportation network, to improve the internal structure and the competitiveness of the market.

  12. Risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS): educating the prescriber.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholson, Susan C; Peterson, Janet; Yektashenas, Behin

    2012-02-01

    The US FDA Amendments Act of 2007 was signed into law on 27 September 2007. A provision of this law granted the FDA new powers to enhance drug safety by requiring the pharmaceutical industry to develop Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies (REMS). REMS are deemed necessary when a question exists as to whether the benefits of a drug outweigh its risks. REMS constitute a safety plan with several potential components, including a medication guide, a communication plan, elements to ensure safe use and an implementation system to help guide the prescribers, pharmacists and patients. This applies to existing drugs on the market, new drug applications (NDAs), abbreviated NDAs (generics) and biologics licence applications. REMS represent an 'upgrade' from previously required risk minimization action plans, based on the strengthening of FDA powers of authority and enforceability to incur monetary penalties against individuals representing the pharmaceutical industry who fail to comply. For illustrative purposes, we chose the drug romiplostim (Nplate®) to present an REMS, as all components were utilized to help assuage risks associated with the drug. Romiplostim is an FDA-approved drug used to treat thrombocytopenia in patients with chronic immune (idiopathic) thrombocytopenic purpura that has a significant adverse safety profile based on the risk of changes in bone marrow reticulin formation and bone marrow fibroses, and other associated risks. This review of current REMS policy is intended to provide the prescriber with a better understanding of current modalities in FDA-mandated drug safety programmes, which will impact day-to-day healthcare provider practices.

  13. Evaluation of risk factors for vancomycin-induced nephrotoxicity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, So Jin; Lim, Na Ri; Park, Hyo Jung; Yang, Jae Wook; Kim, Min-Ji; Kim, Kyunga; In, Yong Won; Lee, Young Mee

    2018-05-09

    Background Vancomycin is a glycopeptide antibiotic of choice for the treatment of serious infections caused by multi-resistant Gram-positive bacteria. However, vancomycin-associated nephrotoxicity (VAN) often limits its use. Previous data suggested a few risk factors of VAN, including higher mean vancomycin trough level, higher daily doses, old age, long duration of vancomycin therapy, and concomitant nephrotoxins. Objective To evaluate the incidence and risk factors of VAN and determine whether higher vancomycin trough concentrations were associated with a greater risk for VAN. Settings A retrospective, observational, single-center study at the 1960-bed university-affiliated tertiary care hospital (Samsung Medical Center), Seoul, Korea. Method A retrospective analysis of adult patients who received vancomycin parenterally in a tertiary care medical center from March 1, 2013 to June 30, 2013 was performed. We excluded patients with a baseline serum creatinine level > 2 mg/dL and those who had a history of end-stage renal disease and dialysis at baseline. The clinical characteristics were compared between patients with nephrotoxicity and those without nephrotoxicity to identify the risk factors associated with VAN. Main outcome measure Incidence of VAN and VAN-associated risk factors were analyzed. Results Of the 315 vancomycin-treated patients, nephrotoxicity occurred in 15.2% of the patients. In multivariate analysis, higher vancomycin trough concentrations of > 20 mg∕L (OR 9.57, 95% CI 2.49-36.83, p < 0.01) and intensive care unit (ICU) residence (OR 2.86, 95% CI 1.41-5.82, p < 0.01) were independently associated with VAN. Conclusion Our findings suggest that higher vancomycin trough levels and ICU residence might be associated with a greater risk for VAN. More careful monitoring of vancomycin serum trough levels and patient status might facilitate the timely prevention of VAN.

  14. Survey and evaluation of aging risk assessment methods and applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sanzo, D.; Kvam, P.; Apostolakis, G.; Wu, J.; Milici, T.; Ghoniem, N.; Guarro, S.

    1994-11-01

    The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission initiated the nuclear power plant aging research program about 6 years ago to gather information about nuclear power plant aging. Since then, this program has collected a significant amount of information, largely qualitative, on plant aging and its potential effects on plant safety. However, this body of knowledge has not yet been integrated into formalisms that can be used effectively and systematically to assess plant risk resulting from aging, although models for assessing the effect of increasing failure rates on core damage frequency have been proposed. This report surveys the work on the aging of systems, structures, and components (SSCs) of nuclear power plants, as well as associated data bases. We take a critical look at the need to revise probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) so that they will include the contribution to risk from plant aging, the adequacy of existing methods for evaluating this contribution, and the adequacy of the data that have been used in these evaluation methods. We identify a preliminary framework for integrating the aging of SSCs into the PRA and include the identification of necessary data for such an integration

  15. Evaluation of the carcinogenic risks at the influence of POPs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nazhmetdinova, Aiman; Kassymbayev, Adlet; Chalginbayeva, Altinay

    2017-12-20

    Kazakhstan is included in the list of environmentally vulnerable countries and Kyzylorda oblast in particular. This is due to its geographical, spatial and temporal and socioeconomic features. As part of the program "Integrated approaches in the management of public health in the Aral region", we have carried out an expertise on many samples of natural environments and products. Samples were selected in accordance with sampling procedures according to regulatory documents by specialists of the Pesticide Toxicology Laboratory. It is accredited by the State Standard of the Republic of Kazakhstan, for compliance with ST RK ISO/IEC 17025-2007 "General requirements for the competence of test and calibration laboratories". Gas chromatograph was used for the determination of residues of organochlorine pesticides. For the determination of dioxins, polychlorinated biphenyl was conducted on the gas chromatomass spectrometer with quadruple detector produce by Agilent Company, USA. To assess the risk, we carried out the mathematical calculations according to the risk of chemicals polluting (No P 2.1.10.1920-04, Russia). Calculation of the carcinogenic risk was carried out with the use of data on the size of the exposure and meanings of carcinogenic potential factors (slope factor and unit risk). The evaluation of persistent organic pollutants (POPs), based on the previous results of the research concerning water, soil and food products, was held in five population settlements in Kyzylorda oblast villages: Ayteke bi, Zhalagash, Zhosaly, Shieli and Aralsk town. Pollution with the POPs in the environmental objects by means of exposition and evaluation of the carcinogenic risk to human health is confirmed by the data of the statistical reporting about some morbidity in Kyzylorda oblast, such as skin diseases and subcutaneous tissue, endocrine system diseases, pregnancy complications etc. The received levels of carcinogenic risks, which were first carried out in the Republic of

  16. Rigorous simulation: a tool to enhance decision making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Neiva, Raquel; Larson, Mel; Baks, Arjan [KBC Advanced Technologies plc, Surrey (United Kingdom)

    2012-07-01

    The world refining industries continue to be challenged by population growth (increased demand), regional market changes and the pressure of regulatory requirements to operate a 'green' refinery. Environmental regulations are reducing the value and use of heavy fuel oils, and leading to convert more of the heavier products or even heavier crude into lighter products while meeting increasingly stringent transportation fuel specifications. As a result actions are required for establishing a sustainable advantage for future success. Rigorous simulation provides a key advantage improving the time and efficient use of capital investment and maximizing profitability. Sustainably maximizing profit through rigorous modeling is achieved through enhanced performance monitoring and improved Linear Programme (LP) model accuracy. This paper contains examples on these two items. The combination of both increases overall rates of return. As refiners consider optimizing existing assets and expanding projects, the process agreed to achieve these goals is key for a successful profit improvement. The benefit of rigorous kinetic simulation with detailed fractionation allows for optimizing existing asset utilization while focusing the capital investment in the new unit(s), and therefore optimizing the overall strategic plan and return on investment. Individual process unit's monitoring works as a mechanism for validating and optimizing the plant performance. Unit monitoring is important to rectify poor performance and increase profitability. The key to a good LP relies upon the accuracy of the data used to generate the LP sub-model data. The value of rigorous unit monitoring are that the results are heat and mass balanced consistently, and are unique for a refiners unit / refinery. With the improved match of the refinery operation, the rigorous simulation models will allow capturing more accurately the non linearity of those process units and therefore provide correct

  17. Evaluating the risk-reduction benefits of wind energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brower, M.C. [Brower & Company, Andover, MA (United States); Bell, K. [Convergence Research, Seattle, WA (United States); Bernow, S.; Duckworth, M. [Tellus Inst., Boston, MA (United States); Spinney P. [Charles River Associates, Boston, MA (United States)

    1996-12-31

    This paper presents preliminary results of a study to evaluate the risk-reduction benefits of wind power for a case study utility system using decision analysis techniques. The costs and risks of two alternative decisions-whether to build a 400 MW gas-fired combined cycle plant or a 1600 MW wind plant in 2003-were compared through computer simulations as fuel prices, environmental regulatory costs, wind and conventional power plant availability, and load growth were allowed to vary. Three different market scenarios were examined: traditional regulation, a short-term power pool, and fixed-price contracts of varying duration. The study concludes that, from the perspective of ratepayers, wind energy provides a net levelized risk-reduction benefit of $3.4 to $7.8/MWh under traditional regulation, and less in the other scenarios. From the perspective of the utility plant owners, wind provides a significant risk benefit in the unregulated market scenarios but none in a regulated market. The methodology and findings should help inform utility resource planning and industry restructuring efforts. 2 figs., 3 tabs.

  18. Mycophenolate fetal toxicity and risk evaluation and mitigation strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, M; Rostas, S; Gabardi, S

    2013-06-01

    The mycophenolic acid (MPA) preparations are one of the most commonly used immunosuppressants in the United States. However, these agents carry a black box warning regarding their use during pregnancy due to an association with increased risk of miscarriage and congenital defects. To ensure that the benefits of MPA outweigh the risks, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) required all manufacturers of MPA products to propose risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS). Four years after initially calling for proposals, the FDA approved a single shared REMS system in September 2012. The elements of the MPA REMS include a medication guide and elements to assure safe use (ETASU). The medication guide, which was previously FDA-approved in 2008, should continue to be distributed to patients, and the ETASU requires physicians to complete training and obtain patient signatures on the "Patient-Prescriber Acknowledgement Form." A single, national, voluntary pregnancy registry is available, and pregnant patients should be encouraged to participate. Although the impact of the MPA REMS on clinical practice is not clear, it is a step toward increasing the understanding of fetal risks with MPA products among patients and possibly practitioners. © Copyright 2013 The American Society of Transplantation and the American Society of Transplant Surgeons.

  19. Benefit-risk evaluation of mammographic mass screening

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sato, Nobuo; Ogura, Toshihiro

    1990-01-01

    This study evaluated the benefit-risk balance of mammography in mass screening by using survival rates from 3000 breast cancer patients at the Japanese Foundation for Cancer Research Institute Hospital. Because the number of participants in mammographic mass screening was small, asymptomatic patients with pathologically proven early breast cancer were categorized as the screenee group. Symptomatic patients were categorized as the patient group. Survival rates were compared in both the screenee and the patient groups. Based on the difference in areas of survival curves between screenees and patients, the ratio of person-year gain (PYG) to person-year lost (PYL) was obtained. The ratio of PYG to PYL was multiplied by the detection rate resulting from a particular screening program to obtain the benefit/risk ratio. The detection rate of nonpalpable breast cancer was 15 times higher in the screenee group than the patient group. Breast cancer was detected in 7 (0.85%) of 824 patients in the screenee group. Even when mammographic mass screening was started at the age of 30, the benefit of mammography was far superior to the risk. The number of participants in mass screening stratified by age may be required for the conclusion of the benefit-risk balance of mammography in mass screening. (N.K.)

  20. Transport project evaluation: feasibility risk assessment and scenario forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang; Leleur, Steen

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents a new approach to transport project assessment in terms of feasibility risk assessment and reference class forecasting. Conventionally, transport project assessment is based upon a Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) where evaluation criteria such as Benefit Cost Ratios (BCR...... on the preliminary construction cost estimates. Hereafter, a quantitative risk analysis is provided making use of Monte Carlo simulation. This approach facilitates random input parameters based upon reference class forecasting, hence, a parameter data fit has been performed in order to obtain validated probability...... Scenario Forecasting (RSF) frame. The RSF is anchored in the cost-benefit analysis; thus, it provides decision-makers with a quantitative mean of assessing the transport infrastructure project. First, the RSF method introduces uncertainties within the CBA by applying Optimism Bias uplifts...

  1. Patient Doses and Risk Evaluation in Bone Mineral Densitometry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Angelucci, M.; Borio, R.; Chiocchini, S.; Degli Esposti, P.; Dipilato, A.C.; Policani, G.

    1999-01-01

    The aim of this work was to evaluate the equipment dose to the organs and tissues and the effective dose of patients undergoing the most frequent examinations carried out in bone mineral densitometry (BMD): lumbar spine and femur. Experimental measurements of absorbed doses on a Rando phantom, allow comparison of the performances of three different photon emitter facilities. The comparison of the entrance and exit doses measured on a Rando phantom and on 50 female non-obese patients show that entrance doses on Rando can be used as 'diagnostic reference levels' for patients. A quantitative estimate of the stochastic risk due to BMD procedures was made: the results obtained show that the stochastic risk is very low and that the BMD is, at present, the most confirmed procedure for osteoporosis diagnosis and management. (author)

  2. The Risk-Stratified Osteoporosis Strategy Evaluation study (ROSE)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rubin, Katrine Hass; Holmberg, Teresa; Rothmann, Mette Juel

    2015-01-01

    The risk-stratified osteoporosis strategy evaluation study (ROSE) is a randomized prospective population-based study investigating the effectiveness of a two-step screening program for osteoporosis in women. This paper reports the study design and baseline characteristics of the study population....... 35,000 women aged 65-80 years were selected at random from the population in the Region of Southern Denmark and-before inclusion-randomized to either a screening group or a control group. As first step, a self-administered questionnaire regarding risk factors for osteoporosis based on FRAX......(®) was issued to both groups. As second step, subjects in the screening group with a 10-year probability of major osteoporotic fractures ≥15 % were offered a DXA scan. Patients diagnosed with osteoporosis from the DXA scan were advised to see their GP and discuss pharmaceutical treatment according to Danish...

  3. Methodology evaluation of innovative projects under risk and uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available This article deals with problems connected with the assessment of innovative projects in the context of risk and uncertainty, topical issues of evaluation of innovative projects at the present stage of development of the Russian economy. By the example of the solution of the "crossing the river" is considering the possibility of using hierarchical models to address it. In what follows, and compares the priorities of different groups of factors are given by calculating the overall costs and benefits. The paper provides a rationale for combined use of four aspects: the beneficial aspects of the decision (the benefits and opportunities and negative (costs and risks that may lead to the decision in question.

  4. Nanoparticle risk management and cost evaluation: a general framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fleury, Dominique; Bomfim, João A. S.; Metz, Sébastien; Bouillard, Jacques X.; Brignon, Jean-Marc

    2011-07-01

    Industrial production of nano-objects has been growing fast during the last decade and a wide range of products containing nanoparticles (NPs) is proposed to the public in various markets (automotive, electronics, textiles...). The issues encountered in monitoring the presence of nano-objects in any media cause a major difficulty for controlling the risk associated to the production stage. It is therefore very difficult to assess the efficiency of prevention and mitigation solutions, which potentially leads to overestimate the level of the protection barriers that are recommended. The extra costs in adding nano-objects to the process, especially that of nanosafety, must be estimated and optimized to ensure the competitiveness of the future production lines and associated products. The risk management and cost evaluation methods presented herein have been designed for application in a pilot production line of injection-moulded nanocomposites.

  5. Nanoparticle risk management and cost evaluation: a general framework

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fleury, Dominique; Metz, Sebastien; Bouillard, Jacques X; Brignon, Jean-Marc; Bomfim, Joao A S

    2011-01-01

    Industrial production of nano-objects has been growing fast during the last decade and a wide range of products containing nanoparticles (NPs) is proposed to the public in various markets (automotive, electronics, textiles...). The issues encountered in monitoring the presence of nano-objects in any media cause a major difficulty for controlling the risk associated to the production stage. It is therefore very difficult to assess the efficiency of prevention and mitigation solutions, which potentially leads to overestimate the level of the protection barriers that are recommended. The extra costs in adding nano-objects to the process, especially that of nanosafety, must be estimated and optimized to ensure the competitiveness of the future production lines and associated products. The risk management and cost evaluation methods presented herein have been designed for application in a pilot production line of injection-moulded nanocomposites.

  6. Risk evaluation of uranium mining: a new kinetic approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Scislewski, Alexandro [Brazilian Nuclear Energy Comission (CNEN), Avenida Santana, 680, Centro, Caetite-Bahia, 46400-000 (Brazil); Zuddas, Pierpaolo [Universite Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris-Sorbonne, ISTEP place Jussieu, Tour 56-55, case 116, F75252 Paris Cedex 05 (France)

    2013-07-01

    Release of uranium and associated heavy metals is the main environmental concern regarding exploitation and processing of U-ore. Increasing uranium mining activities potentially increase the risks linked to radiation exposure. As a tool to evaluate these risks, a geochemical inverse modeling approach was developed to estimate the water-mineral interaction in the presence of uranium. Our methodology is based on the estimation of dissolution rate and reactive surface area of the different minerals participating in the reaction by reconstructing the chemical evolution of the interacting fluids. We found that the reactive surface area of parent-rock minerals changes over several orders of magnitude during the investigated reaction time. We propose that the formation of coatings on dissolving mineral surfaces significantly reduces reactivity. Our results show that negatively charged uranium complexes decrease when alkalinity and rock buffer capacity is similarly lower, indicating that the dissolved carbonate is an important parameter impacting uranium mobility. (authors)

  7. Risk evaluation of uranium mining: a new kinetic approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scislewski, Alexandro; Zuddas, Pierpaolo

    2013-01-01

    Release of uranium and associated heavy metals is the main environmental concern regarding exploitation and processing of U-ore. Increasing uranium mining activities potentially increase the risks linked to radiation exposure. As a tool to evaluate these risks, a geochemical inverse modeling approach was developed to estimate the water-mineral interaction in the presence of uranium. Our methodology is based on the estimation of dissolution rate and reactive surface area of the different minerals participating in the reaction by reconstructing the chemical evolution of the interacting fluids. We found that the reactive surface area of parent-rock minerals changes over several orders of magnitude during the investigated reaction time. We propose that the formation of coatings on dissolving mineral surfaces significantly reduces reactivity. Our results show that negatively charged uranium complexes decrease when alkalinity and rock buffer capacity is similarly lower, indicating that the dissolved carbonate is an important parameter impacting uranium mobility. (authors)

  8. Evaluation of radiation risk and work practices during cerebral interventions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Livingstone, Roshan S; Raghuram, L; Korah, Ipeson P; Raj, D Victor [Department of Radiodiagnosis, Christian Medical College, Vellore 632004 (India)

    2003-09-01

    This study was intended to evaluate radiation risk to patients during cerebral interventions and the contribution to this risk from work practices. Thirty nine patients undergoing cerebral interventions in a digital subtraction angiography suite were included in this study. Patients who underwent cerebral interventions were categorised into two groups according to the number of cerebral interventions performed on them, and their effective doses were calculated. The effective dose for patients undergoing a single cerebral intervention (group A) varied from 1.55 to 15.9 mSv and for multiple cerebral interventions (group B) varied from 16.52 to 43.52 mSv. Two patients who underwent multiple cerebral interventions (group B) had alopecia of the irradiated scalp.

  9. Risk evaluation in Columbian electricity market using fuzzy logic

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Medina, S.; Moreno, J.

    2007-01-01

    This article proposes a model based on Fuzzy Logic to evaluate the market risk that a trading agent faces in the electric power negotiation in Colombia, as part of a general model of negotiation. The proposed model considers single external factors as regulatory changes, social and political issues, and the condition of the national transmission net. Variables of the market associated to these risk factors were selected and some graphic and statistical analyses were made in order to check their relationship with the electricity prices and to determine why the experts consider these factors in their analyses. According to the obtained results a Mamdani Fuzzy Inference System which contains the expert knowledge was developed and it is presented in a fuzzy cognitive map. (author)

  10. An attempt to evaluate the risks associated with radiological terror

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paschoa, A.S.; Dantas, B.M.

    2014-01-01

    The evaluation of the risk of a terrorist attack has been made frequently by multiplying the probability of occurrence of a terrorist attempt by the probability of its success and a quantity which represents the consequences of a successful attack. In the case of a radiological attack the consequences will vary in case the action will be active or passive. Thirteen radionuclides were examined for their potential uses in credible threats or terrorist attacks based on their availability from laboratories and hospitals. Taking into account the dose conversion coefficients published by the International Atomic Energy Agency, those radionuclides with higher dose effectiveness for ingestion are the following: 210 Po; 226 Ra and 241 Am. Other radionuclides which can be used in threats and terror attacks, like 137 Cs for example have also been examined. The risks associated with the selected radionuclides have been tentatively ranked as high, medium, or low. The probability used to evaluate risks depends on the motivation of the terrorist and the capacity, which implies availability or the actual possibility of obtaining a particular radionuclide. On the other hand, whenever a list of radionuclides to be used in a malevolent action is available to a terrorist, the choice of the most adequate will depend also on the action to be undertaken. This work ranks risks associated with radiological terror based on physical, chemical, radio-toxicological and other relevant data on radionuclides, which were either already used in terror attacks, or were pointed out as adequate to be used in such malevolent actions. (author)

  11. Evaluation of allowed outage times (AOTS) from a risk and reliability standpoint

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vesely, W.E.

    1989-08-01

    This report describes the basic risks associated with allowed outage times (AOTS), defines strategies for selecting the risks to be quantified, and describes how the risks can be quantified. This report provides a basis for risk-based approaches for regulatory and plant implementation. The AOT risk evaluations can be applied to proposed one-time AOT changes, or to permanent changes. The evaluations can also be used to quantify risks associated with present AOTs, and in establishing AOTs from a risk perspective. The report shows that the standard way of calculating AOT risks in probabilistic risk analyses (PRAs) generally is not sufficient when evaluating all the risks associated with an AOT in order to assess its acceptability. The PRA calculates an average AOT risk which includes the frequency at which the AOT is expected to occur. Other risks associated with an AOT include the single downtime risk, which is the risk incurred when (given) the AOT has occurred. The single downtime risk is generally the most applicable risk in determining the acceptability of the AOT. The single downtime risks are generally much larger than the PRA-averaged risk. For more comprehensive evaluations, both risks should be calculated. The report also describes other risks which can be considered, including personnel and economic risks. Finally, the report discusses the detailed evaluations which are involved in calculating AOT risks, including considerations of uncertainty. (author)

  12. A Conceptual Framework for the Evaluation of Emergency Risk Communications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Leesa; Gamhewage, Gaya M.

    2017-01-01

    Objectives. To articulate a conceptual framework in support of evaluation activities in emergency risk communications (ERC). Methods. The framework proposed is based on a systematic review of the scientific literature (2001–2016) combined with data derived from a series of semistructured interviews with experts and practitioners in ERC, and it is designed to support local, national, and international public health organizations in implementing evaluation studies in ERC. Results. We identified a list of ERC outcomes from the full-text review of 152 articles and categorized these into 3 groups, depending upon the level at which the outcome was measured: (1) information environment, (2) population, and (3) public health system. We analyzed interviewees’ data from 18 interviews to identify practices and processes related to the effectiveness of ERC and included these as key structural components and processes in the developed evaluation framework. Conclusions. Researchers and public health practitioners interested in the evaluation of ERC can use the conceptual framework described in this article to guide the development of evaluation studies and methods for assessing communication outcomes related to public health emergencies. PMID:28892436

  13. A Conceptual Framework for the Evaluation of Emergency Risk Communications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Savoia, Elena; Lin, Leesa; Gamhewage, Gaya M

    2017-09-01

    To articulate a conceptual framework in support of evaluation activities in emergency risk communications (ERC). The framework proposed is based on a systematic review of the scientific literature (2001-2016) combined with data derived from a series of semistructured interviews with experts and practitioners in ERC, and it is designed to support local, national, and international public health organizations in implementing evaluation studies in ERC. We identified a list of ERC outcomes from the full-text review of 152 articles and categorized these into 3 groups, depending upon the level at which the outcome was measured: (1) information environment, (2) population, and (3) public health system. We analyzed interviewees' data from 18 interviews to identify practices and processes related to the effectiveness of ERC and included these as key structural components and processes in the developed evaluation framework. Researchers and public health practitioners interested in the evaluation of ERC can use the conceptual framework described in this article to guide the development of evaluation studies and methods for assessing communication outcomes related to public health emergencies.

  14. Destructiveness criteria for seismic risk evaluation of nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saragoni, G.R.

    1995-01-01

    Two criteria of destructiveness for seismic risk evaluation of nuclear power plant are presented. The first one is a simple linear criterion that allows to compute average response spectra in terms of earthquake accelerogram characteristics. The second defines the destructiveness potential factor P D which measures the capacity of earthquake to produce nonlinear damage. This second criterion that shows large differences of destructiveness capacity for earthquake accelerograms of different seismic environment, specially between subductive and transcursive, is strongly recommended. (author). 8 refs., 1 fig. 1 tab

  15. Comprehensive safeguards evaluation methods and societal risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Richardson, J.M.

    1982-03-01

    Essential capabilities of an integrated evaluation methodology for analyzing safeguards systems are discussed. Such a methodology must be conceptually meaningful, technically defensible, discriminating and consistent. A decompostion of safeguards systems by function is mentioned as a possible starting point for methodology development. The application of a societal risk equation to safeguards systems analysis is addressed. Conceptual problems with this approach are discussed. Technical difficulties in applying this equation to safeguards systems are illustrated through the use of confidence intervals, information content, hypothesis testing and ranking and selection procedures

  16. Objectives and present status of the German risk evaluation study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Birkhofer, A.; Koeberlein, K.; Heuser, F.W.

    1977-01-01

    For the German risk evaluation study, analogous to the Rasmussen report (WASH--1400), embarked upon in June 1976, the Kernkraftwerk Biblis B serves as the plant of reference. The first interim results are available for various sub-headings of the study. The main finding seems to be the decisive importance of the containment in limiting the accident consequences even in those cases where, on account of postulated failure of safety systems, the melt down of the reactor core is to be expected. (orig./HP) [de

  17. A rigorous pole representation of multilevel cross sections and its practical applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hwang, R.N.

    1987-01-01

    In this article a rigorous method for representing the multilevel cross sections and its practical applications are described. It is a generalization of the rationale suggested by de Saussure and Perez for the s-wave resonances. A computer code WHOPPER has been developed to convert the Reich-Moore parameters into the pole and residue parameters in momentum space. Sample calculations have been carried out to illustrate that the proposed method preserves the rigor of the Reich-Moore cross sections exactly. An analytical method has been developed to evaluate the pertinent Doppler-broadened line shape functions. A discussion is presented on how to minimize the number of pole parameters so that the existing reactor codes can be best utilized

  18. Assessment of Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies in Oncology: Summary of the Oncology Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies Workshop

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frame, James N.; Jacobson, Joseph O.; Vogel, Wendy H.; Griffith, Niesha; Wariabharaj, Darshan; Garg, Rekha; Zon, Robin; Stephens, Cyntha L.; Bialecki, Alison M.; Bruinooge, Suanna S.; Allen, Steven L.

    2013-01-01

    To address oncology community stakeholder concerns regarding implementation of the Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies (REMS) program, ASCO sponsored a workshop to gather REMS experiences from representatives of professional societies, patient organizations, pharmaceutical companies, and the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA). Stakeholder presentations and topical panel discussions addressed REMS program development, implementation processes, and practice experiences, as well as oncology drug safety processes. A draft REMS decision tool prepared by the ASCO REMS Steering Committee was presented for group discussion with facilitated, goal-oriented feedback. The workshop identified several unintended consequences resulting from current oncology REMS: (1) the release of personal health information to drug sponsors as a condition for gaining access to a needed drug; (2) risk information that is not tailored—and therefore not accessible—to all literacy levels; (3) exclusive focus on drug risk, thereby affecting patient-provider treatment discussion; (4) REMS elements that do not consider existing, widely practiced oncology safety standards, professional training, and experience; and (5) administrative burdens that divert the health care team from direct patient care activities and, in some cases, could limit patient access to important therapies. Increased provider and professional society participation should form the basis of ongoing and future REMS standardization discussions with the FDA to work toward overall improvement of risk communication. PMID:23814522

  19. Realistic minimum accident source terms - Evaluation, application, and risk acceptance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Angelo, P. L.

    2009-01-01

    The evaluation, application, and risk acceptance for realistic minimum accident source terms can represent a complex and arduous undertaking. This effort poses a very high impact to design, construction cost, operations and maintenance, and integrated safety over the expected facility lifetime. At the 2005 Nuclear Criticality Safety Division (NCSD) Meeting in Knoxville Tenn., two papers were presented mat summarized the Y-12 effort that reduced the number of criticality accident alarm system (CAAS) detectors originally designed for the new Highly Enriched Uranium Materials Facility (HEUMF) from 258 to an eventual as-built number of 60. Part of that effort relied on determining a realistic minimum accident source term specific to the facility. Since that time, the rationale for an alternate minimum accident has been strengthened by an evaluation process that incorporates realism. A recent update to the HEUMF CAAS technical basis highlights the concepts presented here. (authors)

  20. [Guidance of FDA risk evaluation and mitigation strategy and enlightenment to drug risk management of post-marketing Chinese medicine].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yuanyuan; Xie, Yanming

    2011-10-01

    The FDA risk evaluation and mitigation strategy (REMS) aims to drugs or biological products known or potential serious risk management. Analysis with the example of the content of the Onsolis REMS named FOCOS. Our country can be reference for the analysis of relevant experience and establish a scientific evaluation mechanism, strengthen the drug risk consciousness, promote the rational drug use, organic combined with the before-marketing and post-marketing evaluation of traditional Chinese medicine, and promote the evaluation of risk management of the drug development and improvement.

  1. Evaluation of Projected Agricultural Climate Risk over the Contiguous US

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, X.; Troy, T. J.; Devineni, N.

    2017-12-01

    Food demands are rising due to an increasing population with changing food preferences, which places pressure on agricultural production. Additionally, climate extremes have recently highlighted the vulnerability of our agricultural system to climate variability. This study seeks to fill two important gaps in current knowledge: how does the widespread response of irrigated crops differ from rainfed and how can we best account for uncertainty in yield responses. We developed a stochastic approach to evaluate climate risk quantitatively to better understand the historical impacts of climate change and estimate the future impacts it may bring about to agricultural system. Our model consists of Bayesian regression, distribution fitting, and Monte Carlo simulation to simulate rainfed and irrigated crop yields at the US county level. The model was fit using historical data for 1970-2010 and was then applied over different climate regions in the contiguous US using the CMIP5 climate projections. The relative importance of many major growing season climate indices, such as consecutive dry days without rainfall or heavy precipitation, was evaluated to determine what climate indices play a role in affecting future crop yields. The statistical modeling framework also evaluated the impact of irrigation by using county-level irrigated and rainfed yields separately. Furthermore, the projected years with negative yield anomalies were specifically evaluated in terms of magnitude, trend and potential climate drivers. This framework provides estimates of the agricultural climate risk for the 21st century that account for the full uncertainty of climate occurrences, range of crop response, and spatial correlation in climate. The results of this study can contribute to decision making about crop choice and water use in an uncertain future climate.

  2. RISK VIP: Evaluation of Flood Risk on the French Railway Network Using an Innovative GIS Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheetham Mark

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Flooding can have significant direct and indirect negative effects on a railway network affecting both infrastructure and rail operations. Such impacts include the delaying or cancelling of train services, damage to railway structures or the implementation of costly maintenance and monitoring programs to ensure the safety and performance of the railway system. Identifying sections of railway line at risk from flooding allows appropriate actions to be targeted at specific areas and contributes to an effective asset management plan. Flooding of railway infrastructure can have numerous sources including surface water run-off, insufficient capacity of hydraulic structures or the inundation of embankments located in floodplains. Consequences of flooding include the destabilisation of structures (surface erosion of embankments or the undermining of bridge foundations, differential settlement of structures and damage to the track structure. This paper details an innovative approach developed at the SNCF using a Geographic Information System (GIS model to identify zones of the railway network at risk of different types of flooding. The GIS model RiskVIP has been constructed through the assessment of three distinct components of risk: “Vulnerability” (assessment of the susceptibility of the railway infrastructure to flood conditions, Intensity’ (capacity of a catchment to generate a flood flow, Probability’ (probability of a rainfall event.Through the application of decision trees, the component ‘Intensity’ has been characterised in the model by the physical properties of the catchment intercepted by the railway line (surface area of the catchment, slope and land cover characteristics and “Vulnerability” by the infrastructure itself (type, geometry and the presence of hydraulic structures. In order to evaluate its efficiency at identifying sites at risk of flooding, the model has been tested in the region of Languedoc-Roussillon in France

  3. Effects of Pre and Post-Rigor Marinade Injection on Some Quality Parameters of Longissimus Dorsi Muscles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fadıloğlu, Eylem Ezgi; Serdaroğlu, Meltem

    2018-01-01

    Abstract This study was conducted to evaluate the effects of pre and post-rigor marinade injections on some quality parameters of Longissimus dorsi (LD) muscles. Three marinade formulations were prepared with 2% NaCl, 2% NaCl+0.5 M lactic acid and 2% NaCl+0.5 M sodium lactate. In this study marinade uptake, pH, free water, cooking loss, drip loss and color properties were analyzed. Injection time had significant effect on marinade uptake levels of samples. Regardless of marinate formulation, marinade uptake of pre-rigor samples injected with marinade solutions were higher than post rigor samples. Injection of sodium lactate increased pH values of samples whereas lactic acid injection decreased pH. Marinade treatment and storage period had significant effect on cooking loss. At each evaluation period interaction between marinade treatment and injection time showed different effect on free water content. Storage period and marinade application had significant effect on drip loss values. Drip loss in all samples increased during the storage. During all storage days, lowest CIE L* value was found in pre-rigor samples injected with sodium lactate. Lactic acid injection caused color fade in pre-rigor and post-rigor samples. Interaction between marinade treatment and storage period was found statistically significant (p<0.05). At day 0 and 3, the lowest CIE b* values obtained pre-rigor samples injected with sodium lactate and there were no differences were found in other samples. At day 6, no significant differences were found in CIE b* values of all samples. PMID:29805282

  4. Learning from Science and Sport - How we, Safety, "Engage with Rigor"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herd, A.

    2012-01-01

    As the world of spaceflight safety is relatively small and potentially inward-looking, we need to be aware of the "outside world". We should then try to remind ourselves to be open to the possibility that data, knowledge or experience from outside of the spaceflight community may provide some constructive alternate perspectives. This paper will assess aspects from two seemingly tangential fields, science and sport, and align these with the world of safety. In doing so some useful insights will be given to the challenges we face and may provide solutions relevant in our everyday (of safety engineering). Sport, particularly a contact sport such as rugby union, requires direct interaction between members of two (opposing) teams. Professional, accurately timed and positioned interaction for a desired outcome. These interactions, whilst an essential part of the game, are however not without their constraints. The rugby scrum has constraints as to the formation and engagement of the two teams. The controlled engagement provides for an interaction between the two teams in a safe manner. The constraints arising from the reality that an incorrect engagement could cause serious injury to members of either team. In academia, scientific rigor is applied to assure that the arguments provided and the conclusions drawn in academic papers presented for publication are valid, legitimate and credible. The scientific goal of the need for rigor may be expressed in the example of achieving a statistically relevant sample size, n, in order to assure analysis validity of the data pool. A failure to apply rigor could then place the entire study at risk of failing to have the respective paper published. This paper will consider the merits of these two different aspects, scientific rigor and sports engagement, and offer a reflective look at how this may provide a "modus operandi" for safety engineers at any level whether at their desks (creating or reviewing safety assessments) or in a

  5. Evaluation Of The Risk Of Financing Projects Of Environmental Protection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriela Cornelia PICIU

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available The research project approaches multidimensionally the financing of environmental protection from the perspective of directing, correlating and consolidating the financial flows circumscribed to the regeneration of an economy affected by environmental deterioration due to the very activities defining the economic mechanisms and circuits. The purpose of the project is to identify, by scientific, methodological and empirical analysis of the concepts, principles and arguments imposed by the economic theory, the risks of financing the projects of environmental projects and to evaluate their effects because their neglecting, individual approach or erroneous dimensioning might have unfavourable and unforeseen consequences in terms of the efficiency of the environmental strategies and policies. The objective of the study is the reveal the interdependency and interaction between the flows and circuits financing the environmental projects, showing the necessity for punctual, distributive, correlative and multiplicative financing of the environmental protection. This must be done from an expanded and prospective spatial and temporal vision by a compositional approach of the risk for environmental investments within the complex network of the social, economic and financial risks generated by the global system of the human praxis focused on the binomial of the human-environment interdependence.

  6. Documentation Protocols to Generate Risk Indicators Regarding Degradation Processes for Cultural Heritage Risk Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kioussi, A.; Karoglou, M.; Bakolas, A.; Labropoulos, K.; Moropoulou, A.

    2013-07-01

    Sustainable maintenance and preservation of cultural heritage assets depends highly on its resilience to external or internal alterations and to various hazards. Risk assessment of a heritage asset's can be defined as the identification of all potential hazards affecting it and the evaluation of the asset's vulnerability (building materials and building structure conservation state).Potential hazards for cultural heritage are complex and varying. The risk of decay and damage associated with monuments is not limited to certain long term natural processes, sudden events and human impact (macroscale of the heritage asset) but is also a function of the degradation processes within materials and structural elements due to physical and chemical procedures. Obviously, these factors cover different scales of the problem. The deteriorating processes in materials may be triggered by external influences or caused because of internal chemical and/or physical variations of materials properties and characteristics. Therefore risk evaluation should be dealt in the direction of revealing the specific active decay and damage mechanism both in mesoscale [type of decay and damage] and microscale [decay phenomenon mechanism] level. A prerequisite for risk indicators identification and development is the existence of an organised source of comparable and interoperable data about heritage assets under observation. This unified source of information offers a knowledge based background of the asset's vulnerability through the diagnosis of building materials' and building structure's conservation state, through the identification of all potential hazards affecting these and through mapping of its possible alterations during its entire life-time. In this framework the identification and analysis of risks regarding degradation processes for the development of qualitative and quantitative indicators can be supported by documentation protocols. The data investigated by such protocols help

  7. DOCUMENTATION PROTOCOLS TO GENERATE RISK INDICATORS REGARDING DEGRADATION PROCESSES FOR CULTURAL HERITAGE RISK EVALUATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Kioussi

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Sustainable maintenance and preservation of cultural heritage assets depends highly on its resilience to external or internal alterations and to various hazards. Risk assessment of a heritage asset's can be defined as the identification of all potential hazards affecting it and the evaluation of the asset's vulnerability (building materials and building structure conservation state.Potential hazards for cultural heritage are complex and varying. The risk of decay and damage associated with monuments is not limited to certain long term natural processes, sudden events and human impact (macroscale of the heritage asset but is also a function of the degradation processes within materials and structural elements due to physical and chemical procedures. Obviously, these factors cover different scales of the problem. The deteriorating processes in materials may be triggered by external influences or caused because of internal chemical and/or physical variations of materials properties and characteristics. Therefore risk evaluation should be dealt in the direction of revealing the specific active decay and damage mechanism both in mesoscale [type of decay and damage] and microscale [decay phenomenon mechanism] level. A prerequisite for risk indicators identification and development is the existence of an organised source of comparable and interoperable data about heritage assets under observation. This unified source of information offers a knowledge based background of the asset's vulnerability through the diagnosis of building materials' and building structure's conservation state, through the identification of all potential hazards affecting these and through mapping of its possible alterations during its entire life-time. In this framework the identification and analysis of risks regarding degradation processes for the development of qualitative and quantitative indicators can be supported by documentation protocols. The data investigated by such

  8. Einstein's Theory A Rigorous Introduction for the Mathematically Untrained

    CERN Document Server

    Grøn, Øyvind

    2011-01-01

    This book provides an introduction to the theory of relativity and the mathematics used in its processes. Three elements of the book make it stand apart from previously published books on the theory of relativity. First, the book starts at a lower mathematical level than standard books with tensor calculus of sufficient maturity to make it possible to give detailed calculations of relativistic predictions of practical experiments. Self-contained introductions are given, for example vector calculus, differential calculus and integrations. Second, in-between calculations have been included, making it possible for the non-technical reader to follow step-by-step calculations. Thirdly, the conceptual development is gradual and rigorous in order to provide the inexperienced reader with a philosophically satisfying understanding of the theory.  Einstein's Theory: A Rigorous Introduction for the Mathematically Untrained aims to provide the reader with a sound conceptual understanding of both the special and genera...

  9. Rigor mortis in an unusual position: Forensic considerations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Souza, Deepak H; Harish, S; Rajesh, M; Kiran, J

    2011-07-01

    We report a case in which the dead body was found with rigor mortis in an unusual position. The dead body was lying on its back with limbs raised, defying gravity. Direction of the salivary stains on the face was also defying the gravity. We opined that the scene of occurrence of crime is unlikely to be the final place where the dead body was found. The clues were revealing a homicidal offence and an attempt to destroy the evidence. The forensic use of 'rigor mortis in an unusual position' is in furthering the investigations, and the scientific confirmation of two facts - the scene of death (occurrence) is different from the scene of disposal of dead body, and time gap between the two places.

  10. Some rigorous results concerning spectral theory for ideal MHD

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laurence, P.

    1986-01-01

    Spectral theory for linear ideal MHD is laid on a firm foundation by defining appropriate function spaces for the operators associated with both the first- and second-order (in time and space) partial differential operators. Thus, it is rigorously established that a self-adjoint extension of F(xi) exists. It is shown that the operator L associated with the first-order formulation satisfies the conditions of the Hille--Yosida theorem. A foundation is laid thereby within which the domains associated with the first- and second-order formulations can be compared. This allows future work in a rigorous setting that will clarify the differences (in the two formulations) between the structure of the generalized eigenspaces corresponding to the marginal point of the spectrum ω = 0

  11. Some rigorous results concerning spectral theory for ideal MHD

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laurence, P.

    1985-05-01

    Spectral theory for linear ideal MHD is laid on a firm foundation by defining appropriate function spaces for the operators associated with both the first and second order (in time and space) partial differential operators. Thus, it is rigorously established that a self-adjoint extension of F(xi) exists. It is shown that the operator L associated with the first order formulation satisfies the conditions of the Hille-Yosida theorem. A foundation is laid thereby within which the domains associated with the first and second order formulations can be compared. This allows future work in a rigorous setting that will clarify the differences (in the two formulations) between the structure of the generalized eigenspaces corresponding to the marginal point of the spectrum ω = 0

  12. Rigorous results on measuring the quark charge below color threshold

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lipkin, H.J.

    1979-01-01

    Rigorous theorems are presented showing that contributions from a color nonsinglet component of the current to matrix elements of a second order electromagnetic transition are suppressed by factors inversely proportional to the energy of the color threshold. Parton models which obtain matrix elements proportional to the color average of the square of the quark charge are shown to neglect terms of the same order of magnitude as terms kept. (author)

  13. A Rigorous Methodology for Analyzing and Designing Plug-Ins

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fasie, Marieta V.; Haxthausen, Anne Elisabeth; Kiniry, Joseph

    2013-01-01

    . This paper addresses these problems by describing a rigorous methodology for analyzing and designing plug-ins. The methodology is grounded in the Extended Business Object Notation (EBON) and covers informal analysis and design of features, GUI, actions, and scenarios, formal architecture design, including...... behavioral semantics, and validation. The methodology is illustrated via a case study whose focus is an Eclipse environment for the RAISE formal method's tool suite....

  14. Striation Patterns of Ox Muscle in Rigor Mortis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Locker, Ronald H.

    1959-01-01

    Ox muscle in rigor mortis offers a selection of myofibrils fixed at varying degrees of contraction from sarcomere lengths of 3.7 to 0.7 µ. A study of this material by phase contrast and electron microscopy has revealed four distinct successive patterns of contraction, including besides the familiar relaxed and contracture patterns, two intermediate types (2.4 to 1.9 µ, 1.8 to 1.5 µ) not previously well described. PMID:14417790

  15. Rigorous Analysis of a Randomised Number Field Sieve

    OpenAIRE

    Lee, Jonathan; Venkatesan, Ramarathnam

    2018-01-01

    Factorisation of integers $n$ is of number theoretic and cryptographic significance. The Number Field Sieve (NFS) introduced circa 1990, is still the state of the art algorithm, but no rigorous proof that it halts or generates relationships is known. We propose and analyse an explicitly randomised variant. For each $n$, we show that these randomised variants of the NFS and Coppersmith's multiple polynomial sieve find congruences of squares in expected times matching the best-known heuristic e...

  16. Reciprocity relations in transmission electron microscopy: A rigorous derivation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krause, Florian F; Rosenauer, Andreas

    2017-01-01

    A concise derivation of the principle of reciprocity applied to realistic transmission electron microscopy setups is presented making use of the multislice formalism. The equivalence of images acquired in conventional and scanning mode is thereby rigorously shown. The conditions for the applicability of the found reciprocity relations is discussed. Furthermore the positions of apertures in relation to the corresponding lenses are considered, a subject which scarcely has been addressed in previous publications. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. A risk evaluation model and its application in online retailing trustfulness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ye, Ruyi; Xu, Yingcheng

    2017-08-01

    Building a general model for risks evaluation in advance could improve the convenience, normality and comparability of the results of repeating risks evaluation in the case that the repeating risks evaluating are in the same area and for a similar purpose. One of the most convenient and common risks evaluation models is an index system including of several index, according weights and crediting method. One method to build a risk evaluation index system that guarantees the proportional relationship between the resulting credit and the expected risk loss is proposed and an application example is provided in online retailing in this article.

  18. Health risk evaluation of certain compounds found in contaminated soil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dock, L.; Victorin, K.; Vahter, M.; Ahlborg, U.G.

    1991-01-01

    As part of a redevelopment plan for an old gas works site in Stockholm, the Institute of Environmental Medicine (IEM) at the Karolinska Institute was asked to evaluate the health risks associated with exposure to coal tar, containing polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH), phenols, cyanides, sulfur compounds, arsenic, lead, cadmium and mercury in soil and to suggest guide line values for these compounds in residential areas. Our health risk evaluation was limited to possible effects following direct exposure to contaminated soil. Indirect exposure, i.e. through contaminated ground water or home-grown vegetables, was not considered, nor were effects on building material. The routes of exposure considered were ingestion, dermal contact and inhalation of soil dust. Small children were considered the primary risk group. The critical health effect associated with dermal exposure to PAH in soil is skin cancer. Ingestion of phenols, cyanides and sulphur compounds may cause acute health effects. Recommended guide line values for these contaminants were generally obtained by dividing the lowest observed effect levels with appropriate safety factors. The metals considered may cause both acute and chronic health effects. The guide line values for cadmium and mercury in soil were set based on a maximum intake through ingestion of soil corresponding to 10% of the provisional tolerable weekly intake levels (PTWI) set by FAO/WHO. For arsenic, the guide line value corresponds to 5% of the PTWI-value for a child. The suggested guide line level for lead was based on studied on the association between soil lead concentration and blood lead levels in children. The suggested guide line level for lead in soil may increase the blood-lead in a child by less than 10%. (31 refs.) (au)

  19. Societal Risk Evaluation Scheme (SRES: Scenario-Based Multi-Criteria Evaluation of Synthetic Biology Applications.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher L Cummings

    Full Text Available Synthetic biology (SB applies engineering principles to biology for the construction of novel biological systems designed for useful purposes. From an oversight perspective, SB products come with significant uncertainty. Yet there is a need to anticipate and prepare for SB applications before deployment. This study develops a Societal Risk Evaluation Scheme (SRES in order to advance methods for anticipatory governance of emerging technologies such as SB. The SRES is based upon societal risk factors that were identified as important through a policy Delphi study. These factors range from those associated with traditional risk assessment, such as health and environmental consequences, to broader features of risk such as those associated with reversibility, manageability, anticipated levels of public concern, and uncertainty. A multi-disciplinary panel with diverse perspectives and affiliations assessed four case studies of SB using the SRES. Rankings of the SRES components are compared within and across the case studies. From these comparisons, we found levels of controllability and familiarity associated with the cases to be important for overall SRES rankings. From a theoretical standpoint, this study illustrates the applicability of the psychometric paradigm to evaluating SB cases. In addition, our paper describes how the SRES can be incorporated into anticipatory governance models as a screening tool to prioritize research, information collection, and dialogue in the face of the limited capacity of governance systems. To our knowledge, this is the first study to elicit data on specific cases of SB with the goal of developing theory and tools for risk governance.

  20. 77 FR 26292 - Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy Assessments: Social Science Methodologies to Assess Goals...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-05-03

    ...] Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy Assessments: Social Science Methodologies to Assess Goals... announcing a public workshop entitled ``Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy Assessments: Social Science... constructive dialogue and information-sharing among regulators, researchers, the pharmaceutical industry...

  1. Critical Analysis of Strategies for Determining Rigor in Qualitative Inquiry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morse, Janice M

    2015-09-01

    Criteria for determining the trustworthiness of qualitative research were introduced by Guba and Lincoln in the 1980s when they replaced terminology for achieving rigor, reliability, validity, and generalizability with dependability, credibility, and transferability. Strategies for achieving trustworthiness were also introduced. This landmark contribution to qualitative research remains in use today, with only minor modifications in format. Despite the significance of this contribution over the past four decades, the strategies recommended to achieve trustworthiness have not been critically examined. Recommendations for where, why, and how to use these strategies have not been developed, and how well they achieve their intended goal has not been examined. We do not know, for example, what impact these strategies have on the completed research. In this article, I critique these strategies. I recommend that qualitative researchers return to the terminology of social sciences, using rigor, reliability, validity, and generalizability. I then make recommendations for the appropriate use of the strategies recommended to achieve rigor: prolonged engagement, persistent observation, and thick, rich description; inter-rater reliability, negative case analysis; peer review or debriefing; clarifying researcher bias; member checking; external audits; and triangulation. © The Author(s) 2015.

  2. [Evaluation of risk factors of falls in early postmenopausal women].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nahas, Eliana Aguiar Petri; Omodei, Michelle Sako; Cangussu, Luciana Mendes; Nahas-Neto, Jorge

    2013-11-01

    It was to evaluate the frequency and the risk factors of falls in early postmenopausal women. A cross-sectional study was conducted on 358 women (age: 45-65 years and amenorrhea >12 months) with time since menopause fall was identified as an unexpected unintentional change in position which causes an individual to remain in a lower level in relation to the initial position. The history of self-reported falls during the previous 24 months, and clinical and anthropometric data (body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC)) and bone densitometric measures were analyzed. For statistical analysis, c² trend test and the logistic regression method (odds ratio (OR)) were used for the comparison between groups of women with and without falls. Of the 358 women, 48.0% (172/358) had a history of falls and 17.4% (30/172) had fractures. The fall occurred indoors (at home) in 58.7% (101/172). The mean age was 53.7 ± 6.5 years, time since menopause 5.8 ± 3.5 years, BMI 28.3 ± 4.6 kg/m² and WC 89.0 ± 11.4 cm. There were differences as the occurrence of smoking and diabetes, with greater frequency among fallers vs. non-fallers, 25.6 versus 16.1% and 12.8 versus 5.9%, respectively (prisk of falls in the presence of influential variables, it was observed that risk increased with current smoking status (OR 1.93; 95%CI 1.01-3.71), whereas other clinical and anthropometric variables did not influence this risk. In early postmenopausal women there was higher frequency of falls. Current smoking was clinical indicators of risk for falls. With the recognition of factors for falling, preventive measures become important, as the orientation of abolishing smoking.

  3. Understanding risk evaluation and mitigation strategies in organ transplantation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gabardi, Steven

    2011-07-01

    The United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Amendments Act of 2007 mandated that Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies (REMS) be required of manufacturers. These REMS are strategies implemented to manage known or potential risks associated with drugs and to ensure ongoing pharmacovigilance throughout the life of a pharmaceutical product, including once the product becomes available as generic. The elements of an individual REMS program consist of three levels: medication guide or patient package insert, communication plan, and elements to assure safe use (ETASU). A medication guide or patient package insert is used to help prevent serious adverse events, aid in patient decision making, and enhance drug adherence. Communication plans are used to educate health care providers and to encourage their compliance with REMS. The ETASU is a restrictive process that is implemented when it is deemed necessary to ensure that patients have safe access to products with known serious risks that would otherwise be unavailable. To review the components of REMS and specifically assess their impact on health care providers practicing within the organ transplantation arena, a literature search of the MEDLINE database (January 2007-December 2010) was performed, and published materials from the FDA and its Web site were also reviewed. In transplantation, REMS programs exist for both everolimus (medication guide and communication plan) and sirolimus (medication guide). The FDA has stated that all mycophenolic acid derivatives will be subject to a proposed REMS that has not yet been approved; however, both branded mycophenolic acid agents already have approved medication guides. The REMS are a permanent fixture in the development and marketing of pharmaceutical agents, and their further implementation in solid organ transplantation is inevitable. Transplantation providers should take a proactive role in patient education and implementation of REMS within the therapeutic area

  4. Evaluation Logic of Main Control Board Fire Risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kang, Dae Il; Kim, Kilyoo; Lim, Ho Gon [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-05-15

    The main control board (MCB) is defined as the collection of control panels inside the main control room (MCR) of a nuclear power plant (NPP). As the MCB has the control and instrumentation circuits of redundant trains for almost all plant systems, small fires within the control panels may be detrimental to the safe shutdown capability. A big fire affecting many panels in the MCB can cause a forced MCR abandonment of the operators as well as function failures or spurious operations of the control and instrumentation-related components. If the MCR cannot be habitable, a safe shutdown from outside the MCR can be achieved and maintained at an alternate shutdown panel electrically and physically independent from the MCR. Because the MCB consist of many electrical panels, it may have internal barriers between them to prevent a fire from spreading from its origin to neighboring locations. However, most MCBs of domestic NPPs do not have internal barriers within them. If the MCB cabinets are not separated by a double wall with an air gap, the fire propagation of an MCB panel fire cannot be ruled out. Recently, Joglar et al. proposed a new evaluation logic for the MCB panel fires and mentioned that an MCB fire can be divided into propagation and non-propagating fires for abandonment and non-abandonment fire scenarios. However, they did not present the details on the fire modeling approaches and probability formulas for the fire scenarios. In this paper, a decision tree for evaluating the risk of an MCB fire is proposed to systematically determine the fire scenarios in terms of the fire modeling approaches. This paper proposed a decision tree for evaluating the risk of an MCB fire to systematically determine the fire scenarios in terms of fire modeling approaches.

  5. A framework and case studies for evaluation of enzyme ontogeny in children's health risk evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ginsberg, Gary; Vulimiri, Suryanarayana V; Lin, Yu-Sheng; Kancherla, Jayaram; Foos, Brenda; Sonawane, Babasaheb

    2017-01-01

    Knowledge of the ontogeny of Phase I and Phase II metabolizing enzymes may be used to inform children's vulnerability based upon likely differences in internal dose from xenobiotic exposure. This might provide a qualitative assessment of toxicokinetic (TK) variability and uncertainty pertinent to early lifestages and help scope a more quantitative physiologically based toxicokinetic (PBTK) assessment. Although much is known regarding the ontogeny of metabolizing systems, this is not commonly utilized in scoping and problem formulation stage of human health risk evaluation. A framework is proposed for introducing this information into problem formulation which combines data on enzyme ontogeny and chemical-specific TK to explore potential child/adult differences in internal dose and whether such metabolic differences may be important factors in risk evaluation. The framework is illustrated with five case study chemicals, including some which are data rich and provide proof of concept, while others are data poor. Case studies for toluene and chlorpyrifos indicate potentially important child/adult TK differences while scoping for acetaminophen suggests enzyme ontogeny is unlikely to increase early-life risks. Scoping for trichloroethylene and aromatic amines indicates numerous ways that enzyme ontogeny may affect internal dose which necessitates further evaluation. PBTK modeling is a critical and feasible next step to further evaluate child-adult differences in internal dose for a number of these chemicals.

  6. Risk-adjusted performance evaluation in three academic thoracic surgery units using the Eurolung risk models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pompili, Cecilia; Shargall, Yaron; Decaluwe, Herbert; Moons, Johnny; Chari, Madhu; Brunelli, Alessandro

    2018-01-03

    The objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of 3 thoracic surgery centres using the Eurolung risk models for morbidity and mortality. This was a retrospective analysis performed on data collected from 3 academic centres (2014-2016). Seven hundred and twenty-one patients in Centre 1, 857 patients in Centre 2 and 433 patients in Centre 3 who underwent anatomical lung resections were analysed. The Eurolung1 and Eurolung2 models were used to predict risk-adjusted cardiopulmonary morbidity and 30-day mortality rates. Observed and risk-adjusted outcomes were compared within each centre. The observed morbidity of Centre 1 was in line with the predicted morbidity (observed 21.1% vs predicted 22.7%, P = 0.31). Centre 2 performed better than expected (observed morbidity 20.2% vs predicted 26.7%, P models were successfully used as risk-adjusting instruments to internally audit the outcomes of 3 different centres, showing their applicability for future quality improvement initiatives. © The Author(s) 2018. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery. All rights reserved.

  7. Risk evaluation of impurities in topical excipients: The acetol case

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jente Boonen

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Pharmaceutical excipients for topical use may contain impurities, which are often neglected from a toxicity qualification viewpoint. The possible impurities in the most frequently used topical excipients were evaluated in-silico for their toxicity hazard. Acetol, an impurity likely present in different topical pharmaceutical excipients such as propylene glycol and glycerol, was withheld for the evaluation of its health risk after dermal exposure.An ex-vivo in-vitro permeation study using human skin in a Franz Diffusion Cell set-up and GC as quantification methodology showed a significant skin penetration with an overall Kp value of 1.82×10−3 cm/h. Using these data, limit specifications after application of a dermal pharmaceutical product were estimated. Based on the TTC approach of Cramer class I substances, i.e. 1800 µg/(day∙person, the toxicity-qualified specification limits of acetol in topical excipients were calculated to be 90 µg/mL and 180 µg/mL for propylene glycol and glycerol, respectively.It is concluded that setting specification limits for impurities within a quality-by-design approach requires a case-by-case evaluation as demonstrated here with acetol. Keywords: Acetol, Impurity, Excipients, Transdermal penetration, Specification limits

  8. Seismic risk evaluation within the technology neutral framework

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnson, B.C.; Apostolakis, G.E.

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► We examine seismic risk within the Technology Neutral Framework (TNF). ► We find that the risk goals in the TNF to be stringent compared with current goals. ► We note that the current fleet reactors would not meet the TNF goals. ► We recommend that an initiating frequency cutoff of 10 −5 per year be use in evaluating seismic risk. - Abstract: The NRC Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research has proposed a risk-informed and performance-based licensing process that is referred to as the technology neutral framework (TNF). In the TNF, licensing basis events (LBEs), determined using probabilistic risk assessment methods, take the place of design basis accidents. These LBEs are constructed by grouping together accident sequences with similar phenomenology. All event sequences with a mean frequency greater than 10 −7 per reactor year are to be considered as part of the licensing basis. Imposing such a limit would require that earthquakes with a mean return period of ten million years be considered as part of the licensing basis. It is difficult to get seismic hazards (i.e., ground accelerations) from expert seismologists at such low frequencies. This is because it is difficult or impossible to confidently say what the seismic hazard might be at these extremely low frequencies. A linear extrapolation in log-log space of hazard curves at the Clinton site down to 10 −7 per year leads to a peak ground acceleration of about 4.5 g. A Weibull distribution is also used to fit the curve leading to a peak ground acceleration of about 2.6 g. These extrapolations demonstrate the extreme nature of rare earthquakes. Even when seismic isolation is implemented, the TNF goal is not met. The problem appears to be that there is no limit on initiating event frequency in the TNF. Demonstrating that a design meets the goals of the TNF would be nearly impossible. A frequency limit for earthquakes could be imposed at a frequency of about 10 −5 per year to focus on

  9. The Comprehensive Evaluation Method of Supervision Risk in Electricity Transaction Based on Unascertained Rational Number

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haining, Wang; Lei, Wang; Qian, Zhang; Zongqiang, Zheng; Hongyu, Zhou; Chuncheng, Gao

    2018-03-01

    For the uncertain problems in the comprehensive evaluation of supervision risk in electricity transaction, this paper uses the unidentified rational numbers to evaluation the supervision risk, to obtain the possible result and corresponding credibility of evaluation and realize the quantification of risk indexes. The model can draw the risk degree of various indexes, which makes it easier for the electricity transaction supervisors to identify the transaction risk and determine the risk level, assisting the decision-making and realizing the effective supervision of the risk. The results of the case analysis verify the effectiveness of the model.

  10. Cladding failure probability modeling for risk evaluations of fast reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mueller, C.J.; Kramer, J.M.

    1987-01-01

    This paper develops the methodology to incorporate cladding failure data and associated modeling into risk evaluations of liquid metal-cooled fast reactors (LMRs). Current US innovative designs for metal-fueled pool-type LMRs take advantage of inherent reactivity feedback mechanisms to limit reactor temperature increases in response to classic anticipated-transient-without-scram (ATWS) initiators. Final shutdown without reliance on engineered safety features can then be accomplished if sufficient time is available for operator intervention to terminate fission power production and/or provide auxiliary cooling prior to significant core disruption. Coherent cladding failure under the sustained elevated temperatures of ATWS events serves as one indicator of core disruption. In this paper we combine uncertainties in cladding failure data with uncertainties in calculations of ATWS cladding temperature conditions to calculate probabilities of cladding failure as a function of the time for accident recovery

  11. Cladding failure probability modeling for risk evaluations of fast reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mueller, C.J.; Kramer, J.M.

    1987-01-01

    This paper develops the methodology to incorporate cladding failure data and associated modeling into risk evaluations of liquid metal-cooled fast reactors (LMRs). Current U.S. innovative designs for metal-fueled pool-type LMRs take advantage of inherent reactivity feedback mechanisms to limit reactor temperature increases in response to classic anticipated-transient-without-scram (ATWS) initiators. Final shutdown without reliance on engineered safety features can then be accomplished if sufficient time is available for operator intervention to terminate fission power production and/or provide auxiliary cooling prior to significant core disruption. Coherent cladding failure under the sustained elevated temperatures of ATWS events serves as one indicator of core disruption. In this paper we combine uncertainties in cladding failure data with uncertainties in calculations of ATWS cladding temperature conditions to calculate probabilities of cladding failure as a function of the time for accident recovery. (orig.)

  12. Risk evaluation of uranium mining: A geochemical inverse modelling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rillard, J.; Zuddas, P.; Scislewski, A.

    2011-12-01

    It is well known that uranium extraction operations can increase risks linked to radiation exposure. The toxicity of uranium and associated heavy metals is the main environmental concern regarding exploitation and processing of U-ore. In areas where U mining is planned, a careful assessment of toxic and radioactive element concentrations is recommended before the start of mining activities. A background evaluation of harmful elements is important in order to prevent and/or quantify future water contamination resulting from possible migration of toxic metals coming from ore and waste water interaction. Controlled leaching experiments were carried out to investigate processes of ore and waste (leached ore) degradation, using samples from the uranium exploitation site located in Caetité-Bahia, Brazil. In experiments in which the reaction of waste with water was tested, we found that the water had low pH and high levels of sulphates and aluminium. On the other hand, in experiments in which ore was tested, the water had a chemical composition comparable to natural water found in the region of Caetité. On the basis of our experiments, we suggest that waste resulting from sulphuric acid treatment can induce acidification and salinization of surface and ground water. For this reason proper storage of waste is imperative. As a tool to evaluate the risks, a geochemical inverse modelling approach was developed to estimate the water-mineral interaction involving the presence of toxic elements. We used a method earlier described by Scislewski and Zuddas 2010 (Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta 74, 6996-7007) in which the reactive surface area of mineral dissolution can be estimated. We found that the reactive surface area of rock parent minerals is not constant during time but varies according to several orders of magnitude in only two months of interaction. We propose that parent mineral heterogeneity and particularly, neogenic phase formation may explain the observed variation of the

  13. Fire Risk in MTBF Evaluation for UPS System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefano Elia

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The reliability improvement of no-break redundant electrical systems is the first aim of the proposed strategy. The failure of some UPS (Uninterruptible Power Supply system may lead to the fire occurrence. The most used electrical configurations are presented and discussed in the paper. The innovation of the proposed method consists of taking into account the fire risk to improve the accuracy of wiring configuration and component’s failure rate. Thorough research on MTBF (Mean Time Between Failure data has been performed for each wiring component and UPS. The fire risk is taken into account introducing an equivalent fire block in the Reliability Block Diagram scheme; it has an MTBF value calculated form yearly statistics of UPS fire events. The reliability of the most used UPS electrical configurations is evaluated by means of the RBD method. Different electrical systems have been investigated and compared based on MTBF. The importance of fire compartmentation between two or more UPS’ connected in parallel is proved here.

  14. Evaluation of hip fracture risk in relation to fall direction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nankaku, Manabu; Kanzaki, Hideto; Tsuboyama, Tadao; Nakamura, Takashi

    2005-11-01

    The purpose of this study is to evaluate hip fracture risk in relation to fall direction, and to elucidate factors that influence the impact force in falls on the hip. Eight healthy volunteers performed deliberate falls in three directions (lateral, posterolateral and posterior) on a force platform covered by a mattress of 13 cm thickness. Fall descent motions and impact postures were examined by a three-dimensional analyzer. The maximum ground force reaction, velocity of the greater trochanter at impact, and activity of quadriceps and gluteus medius were measured. In all trials of lateral and posterolateral falls, but not of posterior falls, the subjects hit their greater trochanter directly on the mattress. The impact forces were between 2,000 N and 4,000 N. Posterolateral falls showed significantly higher velocity at impact than did posterior falls. The height and the lower limb length exhibited positive correlations with the impact force in all directions of fall. In the lateral fall, there was a positive correlation between the activity of quadriceps and the impact force. In view of the impact point, force, and velocity, the posterolateral fall seemed to carry the highest risk of hip fracture.

  15. Evaluation of bullying in persons with different risk for psychosis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vasić Jelena

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Emerging research suggests that being exposed to bullying during childhood can increase the risk of psychotic experiences in adulthood. Aggressive peer relations among adolescents are more frequent in boys, both for being victims or perpetrators. Aim: To evaluate whether bullying was more prevalent among Serbian clinical population of patients with psychosis in comparison to their healthy siblings and controls, and to analyze gender differences regarding bullying. Material and methods: This cross-sectional study evaluated schizophrenia spectrum patients (n = 52, age = 29.3 ± 5.9 yrs, in remission, illness duration <10 yrs, their healthy siblings (n = 55, age = 28.6 ± 6.8 yrs and controls (n=50, age=25.3±1.5 yrs. The subjects fulfilled the bullying questionnaire, five item self-rating scale. Descriptive statistics and Mann-Whitney nonparametric test were used to analyze the data. Results: Compared to their healthy siblings, the patients were more likely to report that they were bullied (patients: 7.0 ± 3.5, siblings: 5.2 ± 2.0, p = 0.000, but patients also bullied others more (patients: 1.4 ± 0.8, siblings: 1.1 ± 0.4, p = 0.02. Comparing the group of patients and controls, we did not find statistically significant difference in any category. The male gender brings higher risk of being physically bullied which has been proven for all examined groups (patients- p = 0.03, controls and siblings- p = 0.00. Conclusion: Aggressive peer relations possibly contribute to the evolution of psychosis, as they were more prevalent in patients in comparison to their healthy siblings, particularly in males. Improved prevention of bullying and use of treatments against its psychological consequences might be one of the possible methods to ameliorate the course of psychosis.

  16. Risk Evaluation for Cyclic Aliphatic Bromide Cluster (HBCD Cluster)

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA's existing chemicals programs address pollution prevention, risk assessment, hazard and exposure assessment and/or characterization, and risk management for chemicals substances in commercial use.

  17. New rigorous asymptotic theorems for inverse scattering amplitudes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lomsadze, Sh.Yu.; Lomsadze, Yu.M.

    1984-01-01

    The rigorous asymptotic theorems both of integral and local types obtained earlier and establishing logarithmic and in some cases even power correlations aetdeen the real and imaginary parts of scattering amplitudes Fsub(+-) are extended to the inverse amplitudes 1/Fsub(+-). One also succeeds in establishing power correlations of a new type between the real and imaginary parts, both for the amplitudes themselves and for the inverse ones. All the obtained assertions are convenient to be tested in high energy experiments when the amplitudes show asymptotic behaviour

  18. Probabilistic evaluation of uncertainties and risks in aerospace components

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shah, A. R.; Shiao, M. C.; Nagpal, V. K.; Chamis, C. C.

    1992-01-01

    This paper summarizes a methodology developed at NASA Lewis Research Center which computationally simulates the structural, material, and load uncertainties associated with Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) components. The methodology was applied to evaluate the scatter in static, buckling, dynamic, fatigue, and damage behavior of the SSME turbo pump blade. Also calculated are the probability densities of typical critical blade responses, such as effective stress, natural frequency, damage initiation, most probable damage path, etc. Risk assessments were performed for different failure modes, and the effect of material degradation on the fatigue and damage behaviors of a blade were calculated using a multi-factor interaction equation. Failure probabilities for different fatigue cycles were computed and the uncertainties associated with damage initiation and damage propagation due to different load cycle were quantified. Evaluations on the effects of mistuned blades on a rotor were made; uncertainties in the excitation frequency were found to significantly amplify the blade responses of a mistuned rotor. The effects of the number of blades on a rotor were studied. The autocorrelation function of displacements and the probability density function of the first passage time for deterministic and random barriers for structures subjected to random processes also were computed. A brief discussion was included on the future direction of probabilistic structural analysis.

  19. Context-sensitive Information security Risk identification and evaluation techniques

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ionita, Dan

    2014-01-01

    The objective of my research is to improve and support the process of Information security Risk Assessment by designing a scalable Risk argumentation framework for socio-digital-technical Risk. Due to the various types of IT systems, diversity of architectures and dynamic nature of Risk, there is no

  20. Risk allocation approach to reactor safety design and evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gokcek, O.; Temme, M.I.; Derby, S.L.

    1978-01-01

    This paper describes a risk allocation technique used for determining nuclear power plant design reliability requirements. The concept of risk allocation-optimum choice of safety function reliabilities under a maximum risk constraint - is described. An example of risk allocation is presented to demonstrate the application of the methodology

  1. Evaluation of Risk Perception and Risk-Comparison Information Regarding Dietary Radionuclides after the 2011 Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Accident.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murakami, Michio; Nakatani, Jun; Oki, Taikan

    2016-01-01

    In the wake of the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station accident, to facilitate evidence-based risk communication we need to understand radiation risk perception and the effectiveness of risk-comparison information. We measured and characterized perceptions of dread risks and unknown risks regarding dietary radionuclides in residents of Fukushima, Tokyo, and Osaka to identify the primary factors among location, evacuation experience, gender, age, employment status, absence/presence of spouse, children and grandchildren, educational background, humanities/science courses, smoking habits, and various types of trustworthy information sources. We then evaluated the effects of these factors and risk-comparison information on multiple outcomes, including subjective and objective understanding, perceived magnitude of risk, perceived accuracy of information, backlash against information, and risk acceptance. We also assessed how risk-comparison information affected these multiple outcomes for people with high risk perception. Online questionnaires were completed by people (n = 9249) aged from 20 to 69 years in the three prefectures approximately 5 years after the accident. We gave each participant one of 15 combinations of numerical risk data and risk-comparison information, including information on standards, smoking-associated risk, and cancer risk, in accordance with Covello's guidelines. Dread-risk perception among Fukushima residents with no experience of evacuation was much lower than that in Osaka residents, whereas evacuees had strikingly higher dread-risk perception, irrespective of whether their evacuation had been compulsory or voluntary. We identified location (distance from the nuclear power station), evacuation experience, and trust of central government as primary factors. Location (including evacuation experience) and trust of central government were significantly associated with the multiple outcomes above. Only information on "cancer risk from

  2. Evaluation on lifetime risk in reinforced concrete structure; RC kozo no lifetime risk no hyoka ni kansuru kisoteki kenkyu

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Suzuki, M. [Public Works Research Institute, Tsukuba (Japan); Adachi, H. [Taisei Corp., Tokyo (Japan); Akakura, Y. [Ministry of Transport, Tokyo (Japan); Ibayashi, K.; Ozaka, Y. [Tohoku Gakuin Univ., Sendai (Japan)

    1996-02-15

    To evaluate the risk during longevity of reinforced concrete structure subjected to earthquake motions, called lifetime risk, damage and safety were estimated by means of the earthquake risk analysis and earthquake response analysis. For the earthquake risk analysis, historical earthquake data with relatively low accuracy were efficiently taken into account, to determine the annual mean generation probability against the earthquake motion strength in ten main cities. A new damage index with load hysteresis was defined as an anti-earthquake evaluation index where accumulative damage is taken into consideration. Assuming that the damage transits from `certain state` to `certain state` every time the earthquake motion generates at the noticeable place, damage transition matrix expressing transition probability was calculated by using the results of earthquake risk analysis and the accumulative damage index. The lifetime risk was calculated from the damage transition matrix and the earthquake motion generation probability, to evaluate the safety. 21 refs., 10 figs., 8 tabs.

  3. Control of Risks Through the Use of Procedures: A Method for Evaluating the Change in Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Praino, Gregory T.; Sharit, Joseph

    2010-01-01

    not. The model used for describing the Failure Likelihood considers how well a task was established by evaluating that task on five components. The components selected to define a well established task are: that it be defined, assigned to someone capable, that they be trained appropriately, that the actions be organized to enable proper completion and that some form of independent monitoring be performed. Validation of the method was based on the information provided by a group of experts in Space Shuttle ground processing when they were presented with 5 scenarios that identified a clause from a procedure. For each scenario, they recorded their perception of how important the associated rule was and how likely it was to fail. They then rated the components of Control Value and Failure Likelihood for all the scenarios. The order in which each reviewer ranked the scenarios Control Value and Failure Likelihood was compared to the order in which they ranked the scenarios for each of the associated components; inevitability and opportunity for Control Value and definition, assignment, training, organization and monitoring for Failure Likelihood. This order comparison showed how the components contributed to a relative relationship to the substitute risk element. With the relationship established for Space Shuttle ground processing, this method can be used to gauge if the introduction or removal of a particular rule will increase or decrease the .risk associated with the hazard it is intended to control.

  4. Evaluation of Risk Perception and Risk-Comparison Information Regarding Dietary Radionuclides after the 2011 Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Accident

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murakami, Michio; Nakatani, Jun; Oki, Taikan

    2016-01-01

    In the wake of the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station accident, to facilitate evidence-based risk communication we need to understand radiation risk perception and the effectiveness of risk-comparison information. We measured and characterized perceptions of dread risks and unknown risks regarding dietary radionuclides in residents of Fukushima, Tokyo, and Osaka to identify the primary factors among location, evacuation experience, gender, age, employment status, absence/presence of spouse, children and grandchildren, educational background, humanities/science courses, smoking habits, and various types of trustworthy information sources. We then evaluated the effects of these factors and risk-comparison information on multiple outcomes, including subjective and objective understanding, perceived magnitude of risk, perceived accuracy of information, backlash against information, and risk acceptance. We also assessed how risk-comparison information affected these multiple outcomes for people with high risk perception. Online questionnaires were completed by people (n = 9249) aged from 20 to 69 years in the three prefectures approximately 5 years after the accident. We gave each participant one of 15 combinations of numerical risk data and risk-comparison information, including information on standards, smoking-associated risk, and cancer risk, in accordance with Covello’s guidelines. Dread-risk perception among Fukushima residents with no experience of evacuation was much lower than that in Osaka residents, whereas evacuees had strikingly higher dread-risk perception, irrespective of whether their evacuation had been compulsory or voluntary. We identified location (distance from the nuclear power station), evacuation experience, and trust of central government as primary factors. Location (including evacuation experience) and trust of central government were significantly associated with the multiple outcomes above. Only information on “cancer risk from

  5. Sonoelasticity to monitor mechanical changes during rigor and ageing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayadi, A; Culioli, J; Abouelkaram, S

    2007-06-01

    We propose the use of sonoelasticity as a non-destructive method to monitor changes in the resistance of muscle fibres, unaffected by connective tissue. Vibrations were applied at low frequency to induce oscillations in soft tissues and an ultrasound transducer was used to detect the motions. The experiments were carried out on the M. biceps femoris muscles of three beef cattle. In addition to the sonoelasticity measurements, the changes in meat during rigor and ageing were followed by measurements of both the mechanical resistance of myofibres and pH. The variations of mechanical resistance and pH were compared to those of the sonoelastic variables (velocity and attenuation) at two frequencies. The relationships between pH and velocity or attenuation and between the velocity or attenuation and the stress at 20% deformation were highly correlated. We concluded that sonoelasticity is a non-destructive method that can be used to monitor mechanical changes in muscle fibers during rigor-mortis and ageing.

  6. Rigorous quantum limits on monitoring free masses and harmonic oscillators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy, S. M.

    2018-03-01

    There are heuristic arguments proposing that the accuracy of monitoring position of a free mass m is limited by the standard quantum limit (SQL): σ2( X (t ) ) ≥σ2( X (0 ) ) +(t2/m2) σ2( P (0 ) ) ≥ℏ t /m , where σ2( X (t ) ) and σ2( P (t ) ) denote variances of the Heisenberg representation position and momentum operators. Yuen [Phys. Rev. Lett. 51, 719 (1983), 10.1103/PhysRevLett.51.719] discovered that there are contractive states for which this result is incorrect. Here I prove universally valid rigorous quantum limits (RQL), viz. rigorous upper and lower bounds on σ2( X (t ) ) in terms of σ2( X (0 ) ) and σ2( P (0 ) ) , given by Eq. (12) for a free mass and by Eq. (36) for an oscillator. I also obtain the maximally contractive and maximally expanding states which saturate the RQL, and use the contractive states to set up an Ozawa-type measurement theory with accuracies respecting the RQL but beating the standard quantum limit. The contractive states for oscillators improve on the Schrödinger coherent states of constant variance and may be useful for gravitational wave detection and optical communication.

  7. A rigorous test for a new conceptual model for collisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peixoto, E.M.A.; Mu-Tao, L.

    1979-01-01

    A rigorous theoretical foundation for the previously proposed model is formulated and applied to electron scattering by H 2 in the gas phase. An rigorous treatment of the interaction potential between the incident electron and the Hydrogen molecule is carried out to calculate Differential Cross Sections for 1 KeV electrons, using Glauber's approximation Wang's molecular wave function for the ground electronic state of H 2 . Moreover, it is shown for the first time that, when adequately done, the omission of two center terms does not adversely influence the results of molecular calculations. It is shown that the new model is far superior to the Independent Atom Model (or Independent Particle Model). The accuracy and simplicity of the new model suggest that it may be fruitfully applied to the description of other collision phenomena (e.g., in molecular beam experiments and nuclear physics). A new techniques is presented for calculations involving two center integrals within the frame work of the Glauber's approximation for scattering. (Author) [pt

  8. Volume Holograms in Photopolymers: Comparison between Analytical and Rigorous Theories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallego, Sergi; Neipp, Cristian; Estepa, Luis A.; Ortuño, Manuel; Márquez, Andrés; Francés, Jorge; Pascual, Inmaculada; Beléndez, Augusto

    2012-01-01

    There is no doubt that the concept of volume holography has led to an incredibly great amount of scientific research and technological applications. One of these applications is the use of volume holograms as optical memories, and in particular, the use of a photosensitive medium like a photopolymeric material to record information in all its volume. In this work we analyze the applicability of Kogelnik’s Coupled Wave theory to the study of volume holograms recorded in photopolymers. Some of the theoretical models in the literature describing the mechanism of hologram formation in photopolymer materials use Kogelnik’s theory to analyze the gratings recorded in photopolymeric materials. If Kogelnik’s theory cannot be applied is necessary to use a more general Coupled Wave theory (CW) or the Rigorous Coupled Wave theory (RCW). The RCW does not incorporate any approximation and thus, since it is rigorous, permits judging the accurateness of the approximations included in Kogelnik’s and CW theories. In this article, a comparison between the predictions of the three theories for phase transmission diffraction gratings is carried out. We have demonstrated the agreement in the prediction of CW and RCW and the validity of Kogelnik’s theory only for gratings with spatial frequencies higher than 500 lines/mm for the usual values of the refractive index modulations obtained in photopolymers.

  9. Volume Holograms in Photopolymers: Comparison between Analytical and Rigorous Theories

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Augusto Beléndez

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available There is no doubt that the concept of volume holography has led to an incredibly great amount of scientific research and technological applications. One of these applications is the use of volume holograms as optical memories, and in particular, the use of a photosensitive medium like a photopolymeric material to record information in all its volume. In this work we analyze the applicability of Kogelnik’s Coupled Wave theory to the study of volume holograms recorded in photopolymers. Some of the theoretical models in the literature describing the mechanism of hologram formation in photopolymer materials use Kogelnik’s theory to analyze the gratings recorded in photopolymeric materials. If Kogelnik’s theory cannot be applied is necessary to use a more general Coupled Wave theory (CW or the Rigorous Coupled Wave theory (RCW. The RCW does not incorporate any approximation and thus, since it is rigorous, permits judging the accurateness of the approximations included in Kogelnik’s and CW theories. In this article, a comparison between the predictions of the three theories for phase transmission diffraction gratings is carried out. We have demonstrated the agreement in the prediction of CW and RCW and the validity of Kogelnik’s theory only for gratings with spatial frequencies higher than 500 lines/mm for the usual values of the refractive index modulations obtained in photopolymers.

  10. A methodology for the rigorous verification of plasma simulation codes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riva, Fabio

    2016-10-01

    The methodology used to assess the reliability of numerical simulation codes constitutes the Verification and Validation (V&V) procedure. V&V is composed by two separate tasks: the verification, which is a mathematical issue targeted to assess that the physical model is correctly solved, and the validation, which determines the consistency of the code results, and therefore of the physical model, with experimental data. In the present talk we focus our attention on the verification, which in turn is composed by the code verification, targeted to assess that a physical model is correctly implemented in a simulation code, and the solution verification, that quantifies the numerical error affecting a simulation. Bridging the gap between plasma physics and other scientific domains, we introduced for the first time in our domain a rigorous methodology for the code verification, based on the method of manufactured solutions, as well as a solution verification based on the Richardson extrapolation. This methodology was applied to GBS, a three-dimensional fluid code based on a finite difference scheme, used to investigate the plasma turbulence in basic plasma physics experiments and in the tokamak scrape-off layer. Overcoming the difficulty of dealing with a numerical method intrinsically affected by statistical noise, we have now generalized the rigorous verification methodology to simulation codes based on the particle-in-cell algorithm, which are employed to solve Vlasov equation in the investigation of a number of plasma physics phenomena.

  11. Evaluation of Risk Factors Associated with Endometriosis in Infertile Women

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mahnaz Ashrafi

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Background: Endometriosis affects women’s physical and mental wellbeing. Symptoms include dyspareunia, dysmenorrhea, pelvic pain, and infertility. The purpose of this study is to assess the correlation between some relevant factors and symptoms and risk of an endometriosis diagnosis in infertile women. Materials and Methods: A retrospective study of 1282 surgical patients in an infertility Institute, Iran between 2011 and 2013 were evaluated by laparoscopy. Of these, there were 341 infertile women with endometriosis (cases and 332 infertile women with a normal pelvis (comparison group. Chi-square and t tests were used to compare these two groups. Logistic regression was done to build a prediction model for an endometriosis diagnosis. Results: Gravidity [odds ratio (OR: 0.8, confidence interval (CI: 0.6-0.9, P=0.01], parity (OR: 0.7, CI: 0.6-0.9, P=0.01, family history of endometriosis (OR: 4.9, CI: 2.1-11.3, P0.05. Fatigue, diarrhea, constipation, dysmenorrhea, dyspareunia, pelvic pain and premenstrual spotting were more significant among late-stage endometriosis patients than in those with early-stage endometriosis and more prevalent among patients with endometriosis than that of the comparison group. In the logistic regression model, gravidity, family history of endometriosis, history of galactorrhea, history of pelvic surgery, dysmenorrhoea, pelvic pain, dysparaunia, premenstrual spotting, fatigue, and diarrhea were significantly associated with endometriosis. However, the number of pregnancies was negatively related to endometriosis. Conclusion: Endometriosis is a considerable public health issue because it affects many women and is associated with the significant morbidity. In this study, we built a prediction model which can be used to predict the risk of endometriosis in infertile women.

  12. Evaluation of Parkinson disease risk variants as expression-QTLs.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeanne C Latourelle

    Full Text Available The recent Parkinson Disease GWAS Consortium meta-analysis and replication study reports association at several previously confirmed risk loci SNCA, MAPT, GAK/DGKQ, and HLA and identified a novel risk locus at RIT2. To further explore functional consequences of these associations, we investigated modification of gene expression in prefrontal cortex brain samples of pathologically confirmed PD cases (N = 26 and controls (N = 24 by 67 associated SNPs in these 5 loci. Association between the eSNPs and expression was evaluated using a 2-degrees of freedom test of both association and difference in association between cases and controls, adjusted for relevant covariates. SNPs at each of the 5 loci were tested for cis-acting effects on all probes within 250 kb of each locus. Trans-effects of the SNPs on the 39,122 probes passing all QC on the microarray were also examined. From the analysis of cis-acting SNP effects, several SNPs in the MAPT region show significant association to multiple nearby probes, including two strongly correlated probes targeting the gene LOC644246 and the duplicated genes LRRC37A and LRRC37A2, and a third uncorrelated probe targeting the gene DCAKD. Significant cis-associations were also observed between SNPs and two probes targeting genes in the HLA region on chromosome 6. Expanding the association study to examine trans effects revealed an additional 23 SNP-probe associations reaching statistical significance (p<2.8 × 10(-8 including SNPs from the SNCA, MAPT and RIT2 regions. These findings provide additional context for the interpretation of PD associated SNPs identified in recent GWAS as well as potential insight into the mechanisms underlying the observed SNP associations.

  13. Evaluation of Parkinson disease risk variants as expression-QTLs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Latourelle, Jeanne C; Dumitriu, Alexandra; Hadzi, Tiffany C; Beach, Thomas G; Myers, Richard H

    2012-01-01

    The recent Parkinson Disease GWAS Consortium meta-analysis and replication study reports association at several previously confirmed risk loci SNCA, MAPT, GAK/DGKQ, and HLA and identified a novel risk locus at RIT2. To further explore functional consequences of these associations, we investigated modification of gene expression in prefrontal cortex brain samples of pathologically confirmed PD cases (N = 26) and controls (N = 24) by 67 associated SNPs in these 5 loci. Association between the eSNPs and expression was evaluated using a 2-degrees of freedom test of both association and difference in association between cases and controls, adjusted for relevant covariates. SNPs at each of the 5 loci were tested for cis-acting effects on all probes within 250 kb of each locus. Trans-effects of the SNPs on the 39,122 probes passing all QC on the microarray were also examined. From the analysis of cis-acting SNP effects, several SNPs in the MAPT region show significant association to multiple nearby probes, including two strongly correlated probes targeting the gene LOC644246 and the duplicated genes LRRC37A and LRRC37A2, and a third uncorrelated probe targeting the gene DCAKD. Significant cis-associations were also observed between SNPs and two probes targeting genes in the HLA region on chromosome 6. Expanding the association study to examine trans effects revealed an additional 23 SNP-probe associations reaching statistical significance (p<2.8 × 10(-8)) including SNPs from the SNCA, MAPT and RIT2 regions. These findings provide additional context for the interpretation of PD associated SNPs identified in recent GWAS as well as potential insight into the mechanisms underlying the observed SNP associations.

  14. Biochemical Benefits, Diagnosis, and Clinical Risks Evaluation of Kratom

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dimy Fluyau

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available BackgroundKratom (Mitragyna speciosa is a tropical tree with a long history of traditional use in parts of Africa and Southeast Asia. Kratom is also known as Thom, Thang, and Biak. Its leaves and the teas brewed from them have long been used by people in that region to manage pain and opioid withdrawal and to stave off fatigue. Kratom is actually consumed throughout the world for its stimulant effects and as an opioid substitute (in form of tea, chewed, smoked, or ingested in capsules. Some case reports have associated kratom exposure with psychosis, seizures, intrahepatic cholestasis, other medical conditions, and deaths. The clinical manifestations of kratom effects are not well defined and the clinical studies are limited. Data research suggest that both stimulant and sedative dose-dependent effects do exist, in addition to antinociceptive, antidepressant activity, anxiolytic-like effects, and anorectic effects, but a growing concern for the drug’s effects and safety of use has resulted in national and international attention primarily due to an increase in hospital visits and deaths in several countries that are believed to have been caused by extracts of the plant. There is a dearth of double blind controlled studies. In this study, we aim to use existing literature to clarify both benefits and risks of kratom as well as its diagnosis evaluation as kratom misuse is an emerging trend in the Western world.MethodsLiterature review using databases such as Embase, Medline, PubMed, Cochrane Library, and Mendeley from 2007 to 2017 were evaluated by all authors to analyze current state on benefits, risks, and diagnosis evaluation of kratom (M. speciosa.ResultsData analysis suggested that kratom possesses some benefits such as stimulant and sedative effects as wells as antinociceptive effects. It seems to inhibit pro-inflammatory mediator release and vascular permeability and can enhance immunity. In addition, it may be an antidepressant and

  15. 7 CFR 319.59-3 - Articles prohibited importation pending risk evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 5 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Articles prohibited importation pending risk... Diseases § 319.59-3 Articles prohibited importation pending risk evaluation. The articles listed in...(b), pending the completion of an evaluation by APHIS of the potential pest risks associated with the...

  16. Proposal of a risk-factor-based analytical approach for integrating occupational health and safety into project risk evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badri, Adel; Nadeau, Sylvie; Gbodossou, André

    2012-09-01

    Excluding occupational health and safety (OHS) from project management is no longer acceptable. Numerous industrial accidents have exposed the ineffectiveness of conventional risk evaluation methods as well as negligence of risk factors having major impact on the health and safety of workers and nearby residents. Lack of reliable and complete evaluations from the beginning of a project generates bad decisions that could end up threatening the very existence of an organization. This article supports a systematic approach to the evaluation of OHS risks and proposes a new procedure based on the number of risk factors identified and their relative significance. A new concept called risk factor concentration along with weighting of risk factor categories as contributors to undesirable events are used in the analytical hierarchy process multi-criteria comparison model with Expert Choice(©) software. A case study is used to illustrate the various steps of the risk evaluation approach and the quick and simple integration of OHS at an early stage of a project. The approach allows continual reassessment of criteria over the course of the project or when new data are acquired. It was thus possible to differentiate the OHS risks from the risk of drop in quality in the case of the factory expansion project. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Evaluation of Modified Risk Claim Advertising Formats for Camel Snus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fix, Brian V.; Adkison, Sarah E.; O'Connor, Richard J.; Bansal-Travers, Maansi; Cummings, K. Michael; Rees, Vaughan W.; Hatsukami, Dorothy K.

    2017-01-01

    Objectives: The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has regulatory authority for modified risk tobacco product advertising claims. To guide future regulatory efforts, we investigated how variations in modified risk claim advertisements influence consumer perceptions of product risk claims for Camel Snus. Methods: Young people and adults (15-65),…

  18. Rituals in risk evaluation for land-use planning

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Xanten, van N.H.W.; Pietersen, C.M.; Pasman, H.J.; Vrijling, H.K.; Kerstens, J.G.M.

    2013-01-01

    In Dutch external safety policy, the acceptance of risk for the population in areas surrounding hazardous substances establishments is based on a limit value for individual risk (IR). Additionally, changes to societal risk (SR) must be justified. A specific software program (SAFETI-NL) with the

  19. Risk evaluation in Dutch land-use planning

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Xanten, van N.H.W.; Pietersen, C.M.; Pasman, H.J.; Torn, van der P.; Vrijling, H.K.; Wal, van der A.J.; Kerstens, J.G.M.

    2014-01-01

    In Dutch external safety policy, the acceptance of risk for the population in areas surrounding hazardous substances establishments is based on a limit value for individual risk (IR). Additionally, changes to societal risk (SR) must be justified. A specific software program (SAFETI-NL) with the

  20. Incidental emotions influence risk preference and outcome evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Ding; Gu, Ruolei; Tang, Ping; Yang, Qiwei; Luo, Yue-Jia

    2016-10-01

    Incidental emotions, which are irrelevant to the current decision, play a significant role in the decision-making process. In this study, to investigate the influence of incidental emotions on behavioral, psychological, and electrophysiological responses in the process of decision making, participants were required to perform a monetary gambling task. During the selection stage, an emotional picture, which was chosen from the Chinese Affective Picture System and fell into one of three categories: negative, neutral, and positive, was presented between two alternatives (small/large amount of bet). The pictures were provided to induce incidental emotions. ERPs and self-rating emotional experiences to outcome feedback were recorded during the task. Behavioral results showed that positive incidental emotions elicited risk preference, but emotional experiences to outcome feedback were not influenced by incidental emotions. The feedback-related negativity amplitudes were larger in the positive emotion condition than in the negative and neutral emotion conditions for small outcomes (including wins and losses), whereas there was no difference between the three conditions for large outcomes. In addition, the amplitudes of P3 were reduced overall in the negative emotion condition. We suggest that incidental emotions have modulated both the option assessment stage (manifested in behavioral choices) and the outcome evaluation stage (manifested in ERP amplitudes) of decision making unconsciously (indicated by unchanged subjective emotional experiences). The current findings have expanded our understanding of the role of incidental emotion in decision making. © 2016 Society for Psychophysiological Research.

  1. Use of the Immunegenetical Methods for Biological Risks Evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pozdnyakova, L.; Stopchanskaya, A.; Parkhomenko, N.; Pilipenko, N.; Kostyuchenko, L.; Djurtubaeva, G.; Slavina, N.; Pozdnyakov, S.

    2007-01-01

    For the present biological risk evaluation and forecast, information on gene-phenotypic characteristics of circulating regional EDAs, their connatural sources and conditions for epidemic distribution is necessary. We lead a relative gene-phenotypic comparison of vaccine and wild F.tularensis strains isolated from carriers, vectors, environment and patients in the different natural foci. Phenotyping investigations were done on 'in vitro' model with use of the human peripheral blood immune competent cells (ICC) of non-vaccinated and vaccinated with LVS volunteers. Variations of virulence manifestations of F.tularensis strains, isolated from different sources (ticks, waters, patients) are revealed. Principal differences in interactions of ICC with strains of various virulence degree, presence of ICC structural-functional changes in cytokines secretion dynamics at the presence of the wild and vaccine strains are shown. Morphological proofs for toxic materials production by pathogen during reproductive development term, damaging membranes structure, nucleus and cytoplasm are received. Certain interrelations between isolates phenotypic characteristics, source of isolation and types of natural foci is revealed. VNTR-analysis has showed genotypical heterogeneity and specific peculiarities in VNTR locuses combination of F. tularensis strains from different sources. Biological sense of VNTR-locuses combinations variations and their influence upon virulence signs expression are discussed. The complex approach, including agent's gene-phenotypic characteristics, ecological and geographical features of the natural foci, level of the human recruitment into the epidemic process will promote development of measures for counteraction in case of agents and their modified variants deliberate use. (author)

  2. Evaluation of risk management status for Croatian logistic operators

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diana BOŽIĆ

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Understanding organisational risks makes possible to control them and to change them into organisational strengths. Being known as “measure of uncertainty” in the business process, the risk is the uncertainty of achieving the organizational objectives. It may involve positive or negative consequences. There is a level of uncertainty in every supply chain while operating transportation and warehousing, positioning on the market, developing customer support, reducing cycle times or cutting costs. Therefore, the risk assessment should be one of the main tasks for any supply chain management team. It is required to develop formal risk assessment procedures, to identify the potential impacts to the supply chain operations and to develop a set of contingency plans to mitigate risks. This paper deals with supply chain risk assessment methodology, outlining the present risk management status of Croatian logistic operators.

  3. Reframing Rigor: A Modern Look at Challenge and Support in Higher Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, Corbin M.; Dortch, Deniece; Burt, Brian A.

    2018-01-01

    This chapter describes the limitations of the traditional notions of academic rigor in higher education, and brings forth a new form of rigor that has the potential to support student success and equity.

  4. Rigorous force field optimization principles based on statistical distance minimization

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vlcek, Lukas, E-mail: vlcekl1@ornl.gov [Chemical Sciences Division, Geochemistry & Interfacial Sciences Group, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee 37831-6110 (United States); Joint Institute for Computational Sciences, University of Tennessee, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee 37831-6173 (United States); Chialvo, Ariel A. [Chemical Sciences Division, Geochemistry & Interfacial Sciences Group, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee 37831-6110 (United States)

    2015-10-14

    We use the concept of statistical distance to define a measure of distinguishability between a pair of statistical mechanical systems, i.e., a model and its target, and show that its minimization leads to general convergence of the model’s static measurable properties to those of the target. We exploit this feature to define a rigorous basis for the development of accurate and robust effective molecular force fields that are inherently compatible with coarse-grained experimental data. The new model optimization principles and their efficient implementation are illustrated through selected examples, whose outcome demonstrates the higher robustness and predictive accuracy of the approach compared to other currently used methods, such as force matching and relative entropy minimization. We also discuss relations between the newly developed principles and established thermodynamic concepts, which include the Gibbs-Bogoliubov inequality and the thermodynamic length.

  5. From everyday communicative figurations to rigorous audience news repertoires

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kobbernagel, Christian; Schrøder, Kim Christian

    2016-01-01

    In the last couple of decades there has been an unprecedented explosion of news media platforms and formats, as a succession of digital and social media have joined the ranks of legacy media. We live in a ‘hybrid media system’ (Chadwick, 2013), in which people build their cross-media news...... repertoires from the ensemble of old and new media available. This article presents an innovative mixed-method approach with considerable explanatory power to the exploration of patterns of news media consumption. This approach tailors Q-methodology in the direction of a qualitative study of news consumption......, in which a card sorting exercise serves to translate the participants’ news media preferences into a form that enables the researcher to undertake a rigorous factor-analytical construction of their news consumption repertoires. This interpretive, factor-analytical procedure, which results in the building...

  6. Student’s rigorous mathematical thinking based on cognitive style

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fitriyani, H.; Khasanah, U.

    2017-12-01

    The purpose of this research was to determine the rigorous mathematical thinking (RMT) of mathematics education students in solving math problems in terms of reflective and impulsive cognitive styles. The research used descriptive qualitative approach. Subjects in this research were 4 students of the reflective and impulsive cognitive style which was each consisting male and female subjects. Data collection techniques used problem-solving test and interview. Analysis of research data used Miles and Huberman model that was reduction of data, presentation of data, and conclusion. The results showed that impulsive male subjects used three levels of the cognitive function required for RMT that were qualitative thinking, quantitative thinking with precision, and relational thinking completely while the other three subjects were only able to use cognitive function at qualitative thinking level of RMT. Therefore the subject of impulsive male has a better RMT ability than the other three research subjects.

  7. Rigorous Quantum Field Theory A Festschrift for Jacques Bros

    CERN Document Server

    Monvel, Anne Boutet; Iagolnitzer, Daniel; Moschella, Ugo

    2007-01-01

    Jacques Bros has greatly advanced our present understanding of rigorous quantum field theory through numerous fundamental contributions. This book arose from an international symposium held in honour of Jacques Bros on the occasion of his 70th birthday, at the Department of Theoretical Physics of the CEA in Saclay, France. The impact of the work of Jacques Bros is evident in several articles in this book. Quantum fields are regarded as genuine mathematical objects, whose various properties and relevant physical interpretations must be studied in a well-defined mathematical framework. The key topics in this volume include analytic structures of Quantum Field Theory (QFT), renormalization group methods, gauge QFT, stability properties and extension of the axiomatic framework, QFT on models of curved spacetimes, QFT on noncommutative Minkowski spacetime. Contributors: D. Bahns, M. Bertola, R. Brunetti, D. Buchholz, A. Connes, F. Corbetta, S. Doplicher, M. Dubois-Violette, M. Dütsch, H. Epstein, C.J. Fewster, K....

  8. Risk Evaluation on UHV Power Transmission Construction Project Based on AHP and FCE Method

    OpenAIRE

    Huiru Zhao; Sen Guo

    2014-01-01

    Ultra high voltage (UHV) power transmission construction project is a high-tech power grid construction project which faces many risks and uncertainty. Identifying the risk of UHV power transmission construction project can help mitigate the risk loss and promote the smooth construction. The risk evaluation on “Zhejiang-Fuzhou” UHV power transmission construction project was performed based on analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation (FCE) method in this paper. Afte...

  9. [Safety evaluation and risk control measures of Cassiae Semen].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Yi-Meng; Wu, Li; Zhang, Shuo; Zhang, Li; Gao, Xue-Min; Sun, Xiao-Bo; Wang, Chun

    2017-11-01

    In this study, the authors reviewed domestic and foreign literatures, conducted the textual research on origin and development of Cassia Semen, studied records in ancient books and ancient and modern literatures, clinical adverse reactions and relevant experimental studies in recent years, and summarized the clinical features and influencing factors related to the safety of Cassiae Semen. According to the findings,Cassia Semen's safety risks are mainly liver and kidney system damages, with the main clinical features of fatigue, anorexia, disgusting of oil, yellow urine and gray stool; digestive system injury, with the main clinical features of diarrhea, abdominal distension, nausea and loose stool; reproductive system damage, with the main clinical features of vaginal bleeding. Allergic reactions and clinical adverse events, with the main clinical features for numb mouth, itching skin, nausea and vomiting, diarrhea, wheezing and lip cyanosis were also reported. The toxicological studies on toxic components of Cassiae Semen obtusifolia were carried out through acute toxicity test, subacute toxicity test, subchronic toxicity test and chronic toxicity test. Risk factors might include patients, compatibility and physicians. Physicians should strictly abide by the medication requirements in the Pharmacopoeia, pay attention to rational compatibility, appropriate dosage,correct usage and appropriate processing, control the dosage below 15 g to avoid excessive intake, strictly control the course of treatment to avoid accumulated poisoning caused by long-term administration. At the same time, clinicians should pay attention to the latest research progress, update the knowledge structure, quickly find the latest and useful materials from clinical practice, scientific research and drug information and other literatures, make evaluation and judgment for the materials, establish a traditional Chinese medicine intelligence information library, and strengthen the control over

  10. Desarrollo constitucional, legal y jurisprudencia del principio de rigor subsidiario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Germán Eduardo Cifuentes Sandoval

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available In colombia the environment state administration is in charge of environmental national system, SINA, SINA is made up of states entities that coexist beneath a mixed organization of centralization and decentralization. SINA decentralization express itself in a administrative and territorial level, and is waited that entities that function under this structure act in a coordinated way in order to reach suggested objectives in the environmental national politicy. To achieve the coordinated environmental administration through entities that define the SINA, the environmental legislation of Colombia has include three basic principles: 1. The principle of “armorial regional” 2. The principle of “gradationnormative” 3. The principle of “rigorsubsidiaries”. These principles belong to the article 63, law 99 of 1933, and even in the case of the two first, it is possible to find equivalents in other norms that integrate the Colombian legal system, it does not happen in that way with the “ rigor subsidiaries” because its elements are uniques of the environmental normativity and do not seem to be similar to those that make part of the principle of “ subsidiaridad” present in the article 288 of the politic constitution. The “ rigor subsidiaries” give to decentralizates entities certain type of special ability to modify the current environmental legislation to defend the local ecological patrimony. It is an administrative ability with a foundation in the decentralization autonomy that allows to take place of the reglamentary denied of the legislative power with the condition that the new normativity be more demanding that the one that belongs to the central level

  11. Evaluation of a visual risk communication tool: effects on knowledge and perception of blood transfusion risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, D H; Mehta, M D

    2003-06-01

    Effective risk communication in transfusion medicine is important for health-care consumers, but understanding the numerical magnitude of risks can be difficult. The objective of this study was to determine the effect of a visual risk communication tool on the knowledge and perception of transfusion risk. Laypeople were randomly assigned to receive transfusion risk information with either a written or a visual presentation format for communicating and comparing the probabilities of transfusion risks relative to other hazards. Knowledge of transfusion risk was ascertained with a multiple-choice quiz and risk perception was ascertained by psychometric scaling and principal components analysis. Two-hundred subjects were recruited and randomly assigned. Risk communication with both written and visual presentation formats increased knowledge of transfusion risk and decreased the perceived dread and severity of transfusion risk. Neither format changed the perceived knowledge and control of transfusion risk, nor the perceived benefit of transfusion. No differences in knowledge or risk perception outcomes were detected between the groups randomly assigned to written or visual presentation formats. Risk communication that incorporates risk comparisons in either written or visual presentation formats can improve knowledge and reduce the perception of transfusion risk in laypeople.

  12. Occupational health and safety: Designing and building with MACBETH a value risk-matrix for evaluating health and safety risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopes, D. F.; Oliveira, M. D.; Costa, C. A. Bana e.

    2015-05-01

    Risk matrices (RMs) are commonly used to evaluate health and safety risks. Nonetheless, they violate some theoretical principles that compromise their feasibility and use. This study describes how multiple criteria decision analysis methods have been used to improve the design and the deployment of RMs to evaluate health and safety risks at the Occupational Health and Safety Unit (OHSU) of the Regional Health Administration of Lisbon and Tagus Valley. ‘Value risk-matrices’ (VRMs) are built with the MACBETH approach in four modelling steps: a) structuring risk impacts, involving the construction of descriptors of impact that link risk events with health impacts and are informed by scientific evidence; b) generating a value measurement scale of risk impacts, by applying the MACBETH-Choquet procedure; c) building a system for eliciting subjective probabilities that makes use of a numerical probability scale that was constructed with MACBETH qualitative judgments on likelihood; d) and defining a classification colouring scheme for the VRM. A VRM built with OHSU members was implemented in a decision support system which will be used by OHSU members to evaluate health and safety risks and to identify risk mitigation actions.

  13. Risk perception, risk evaluation and human values: cognitive bases of acceptability of a radioactive waste repository

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Earle, T.C.; Lindell, M.K.; Rankin, W.L.

    1981-07-01

    Public acceptance of radioactive waste management alternatives depends in part on public perception of the associated risks. Three aspects of those perceived risks were explored in this study: (1) synthetic measures of risk perception based on judgments of probability and consequences; (2) acceptability of hypothetical radioactive waste policies, and (3) effects of human values on risk perception. Both the work on synthetic measures of risk perception and on the acceptability of hypothetical policies included investigations of three categories of risk: (1) Short-term public risk (affecting persons living when the wastes are created), (2) Long-term public risk (affecting persons living after the time the wastes were created), and (3) Occupational risk (affecting persons working with the radioactive wastes). The human values work related to public risk perception in general, across categories of persons affected

  14. Risk perception, risk evaluation and human values: cognitive bases of acceptability of a radioactive waste repository

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Earle, T.C.; Lindell, M.K.; Rankin, W.L.

    1981-07-01

    Public acceptance of radioactive waste management alternatives depends in part on public perception of the associated risks. Three aspects of those perceived risks were explored in this study: (1) synthetic measures of risk perception based on judgments of probability and consequences; (2) acceptability of hypothetical radioactive waste policies, and (3) effects of human values on risk perception. Both the work on synthetic measures of risk perception and on the acceptability of hypothetical policies included investigations of three categories of risk: (1) Short-term public risk (affecting persons living when the wastes are created), (2) Long-term public risk (affecting persons living after the time the wastes were created), and (3) Occupational risk (affecting persons working with the radioactive wastes). The human values work related to public risk perception in general, across categories of persons affected. Respondents were selected according to a purposive sampling strategy.

  15. Risk management study for the retired Hanford Site facilities: Qualitative risk evaluation for the retired Hanford Site facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coles, G.A.; Shultz, M.V.; Taylor, W.E.

    1993-09-01

    This document provides a risk evaluation of the 100 and 200 Area retired, surplus facilities on the Hanford Site. Also included are the related data that were compiled by the risk evaluation team during investigations performed on the facilities. Results are the product of a major effort performed in fiscal year 1993 to produce qualitative information that characterizes certain risks associated with these facilities. The retired facilities investigated for this evaluation are located in the 100 and 200 Areas of the 1,450-km 2 (570-mi 2 ) Hanford Site. The Hanford Site is a semiarid tract of land in southeastern Washington State. The nearest population center is Richland, Washington, (population 32,000) 30-km (20 mi) southeast of the 200 Area. During walkdown investigations of these facilities, data on real and potential hazards that threatened human health or safety or created potential environmental release issues were identified by the risk evaluation team. Using these findings, the team categorized the identified hazards by facility and evaluated the risk associated with each hazard. The factors contributing to each risk, and the consequence and likelihood of harm associated with each hazard also are included in this evaluation

  16. Risk management study for the retired Hanford Site facilities: Qualitative risk evaluation for the retired Hanford Site facilities. Volume 3

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coles, G.A.; Shultz, M.V.; Taylor, W.E.

    1993-09-01

    This document provides a risk evaluation of the 100 and 200 Area retired, surplus facilities on the Hanford Site. Also included are the related data that were compiled by the risk evaluation team during investigations performed on the facilities. Results are the product of a major effort performed in fiscal year 1993 to produce qualitative information that characterizes certain risks associated with these facilities. The retired facilities investigated for this evaluation are located in the 100 and 200 Areas of the 1,450-km{sup 2} (570-mi{sup 2}) Hanford Site. The Hanford Site is a semiarid tract of land in southeastern Washington State. The nearest population center is Richland, Washington, (population 32,000) 30-km (20 mi) southeast of the 200 Area. During walkdown investigations of these facilities, data on real and potential hazards that threatened human health or safety or created potential environmental release issues were identified by the risk evaluation team. Using these findings, the team categorized the identified hazards by facility and evaluated the risk associated with each hazard. The factors contributing to each risk, and the consequence and likelihood of harm associated with each hazard also are included in this evaluation.

  17. Environmental risk analysis for nanomaterials: Review and evaluation of frameworks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grieger, Khara Deanne; Linkov, Igor; Hansen, Steffen Foss

    2012-01-01

    to occupational settings with minor environmental considerations, and most have not been thoroughly tested on a wide range of NM. Care should also be taken when selecting the most appropriate risk analysis strategy for a given risk context. Given this, we recommend a multi-faceted approach to assess...... the environmental risks of NM as well as increased applications and testing of the proposed frameworks for different NM....

  18. Evaluation of energy related risk acceptance (APHA energy task force)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hull, A.P.

    1977-01-01

    Living in a technological society with large energy requirements involves a number of related actities with attendant health risks, both to the working and to the general public. Therefore, the formulation of some general principles for risk acceptance is necessary. In addition to maximizing benefits and minimizing risk, relevant considerations must be made about the perception of risk as voluntary or involuntary, the number of persons collectively at risk at any one occasion, and the extent to which a risk is a familiar one. With regard to a given benefit, such as a given amount of energy, comparisons of the risks of alternate modes of production may be utilized. However, cost-benefit consideration is essential to the amelioration of current or prospective risks. This is unusual, since it is based on some estimate of the monetary value per premature death averted. It is proposed that increased longevity would be a more satisfactory measure. On a societal basis, large expenditures for additional energy-related pollution control do not appear justifiable since much larger, nonenergy-related health risks are relatively underaddressed. Knowledgeable health professionals could benefit the public by imparting authoritative information in this area

  19. The determination of allowed outage time using the evaluation of transition risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, D. I.; Kim, K. Y.; Jang, S. C.

    2001-03-01

    he objectives of this study are to propose a new evaluation method for transition risk and to determine the AOT using the new method. We review and compare the evaluation methods of transition risk which was previously studied. We also identify important assumptions used in previous studies for the evaluation of transition risk. We select general items required for the development of evaluation method for the transition risk. Based on the items selected, we propose a new evaluation method for transition risk. The new evaluation method for the transition risk is based on following assumptions; 1)For the same time span, the risk occurred from the failure to the completion of component repair during power operation is the same as the total risk including the risk occurred from power operation to specific shutdown/low power operation and the risk from specific shutdown/low power operation to power operation. 2)Shutdown operation and the repair of components are initiated just after the identification of the failure of components. The evaluation of the transition risk is performed to incorporate the characteristics of shutdown operation into Ulchin Units 3 and 4 Level 1 internal PSA for power operation. The application results of the new method to the HPSIS and the LPSIS for Ulchin Units 3 and 4 show that the AOT of HPSIS is properly determined and the AOT of LPSIS can be greatly increased. In this study, the main factors affecting the determination of AOT using the evaluation for transition risk are identified as the time of shutdown operation, the consideration of the change on common cause failure probability, and the risk of shutdown operation. It is expected that the evaluation method for the transition risk proposed in this study will be used for the determination of AOT and for the decision, in the case of the components unavailable, whether power operation is continuously performed or shutdown operation is initiated

  20. Fundamentals of risk management understanding, evaluating and implementing effective risk management

    CERN Document Server

    Hopkin, Paul

    2012-01-01

    Now more than ever, organizations must plan, response and recognize all forms of risks that they face. "Fundamentals of Risk Management", now in its second edition, provides a comprehensive introduction to the subject of commercial and business risk for anyone studying for a career in risk as well as a broad range of risk professionals. It examines the key components of risk management and its application with examples to demonstrate its benefit to organisations in the public and private sector. The second edition has been completely updated to take into account the greater influence of ISO 3100, the emergence of Governance Risk and Compliance (GRC) and the wide use of the bowtie method to illustrate risk management. In addition, there is now a chapter on the skills and competencies required by an effective risk manager.

  1. Packaging and transportation risk management and evaluation plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rhyne, W.R.

    1993-09-01

    Shipments of radioactive materials and hazardous chemicals at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) are governed by a variety of Federal and state regulations, industrial standards, and LANL processes and procedures. Good judgement is exercised in situations that are not covered by regulations. As a result, the safety record for transporting hazardous materials at LANL has been excellent. However, future decisions should be made such that the decision-making process produces a defensible record of the safety of onsite shipments. This report proposes the development of a risk management tool to meet this need. First, the application of quantitative risk analysis methodology to transportation is presented to provide a framework of understanding. Risk analysis definitions, the basic quantitative risk analysis procedure, quantitative methodologies, transportation data bases, and risk presentation techniques are described. Quantitative risk analysis is frequently complex; but simplified approaches can be used as a management tool to make good decisions. Second, a plan to apply the use of risk management principles to the selection of routes, special administrative controls, and containers for hazardous material transportation at LANL is provided. A risk management tool is proposed that can be used by MAT-2 without substantial support from specialized safety and risk analysis personnel, e.g., HS-3. A workbook approach is proposed that can be automated at a later date. The safety of some types of onsite shipments at LANL is not well documented. Documenting that shipments are safe, i.e., present acceptable risks, will likely require elaborate analyses that should be thoroughly reviewed by safety and risk professionals. These detailed analyses are used as benchmarks and as examples for the use of the proposed tool by MAT-2. Once the benchmarks are established, the workbook can be used by MAT-2 to quantify that safety goals are met by similar shipments

  2. Evaluation of severe accident risks, Grand Gulf, Unit 1: Appendices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brown, T.D.; Breeding, R.J.; Jow, H.N.; Higgins, S.J.; Shiver, A.W.; Helton, J.C.; Amos, C.N.

    1990-12-01

    In support of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC's) assessment of the risk from severe accidents at commercial nuclear power plants in the US report in NUREG-1150, the Severe Accident Risk Reduction Program (SARRP) has completed a revised calculation of the risk to the general public from severe accidents at the Grand Gulf Nuclear Station, Unit 1. This power plant, located in Port Gibson, Mississippi, is operated by the System Energy Resources, Inc. (SERI). The emphasis in this risk analysis was not on determining a ''so-called'' point estimate of risk. Rather, it was to determine the distribution of risk, and to discover the uncertainties that account for the breadth of this distribution. Off-site risk initiated by events internal to the power plant was assessed. This document provides Appendices A through E for this report. Topics included are, respectively: supporting information for the accident progression analysis; supporting information for the source term analysis; supporting information for the consequence analysis; risk results; and sampling information

  3. Evaluating and predicting overall process risk using event logs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pika, A.; Van Der Aalst, W.M.P.; Wynn, M.T.; Fidge, C.J.; Ter Hofstede, A.H.M.

    2016-01-01

    Companies standardise and automate their business processes in order to improve process efficiency and minimise operational risks. However, it is difficult to eliminate all process risks during the process design stage due to the fact that processes often run in complex and changeable environments

  4. Clinical Evaluation of a Novel and Mobile Autism Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duda, Marlena; Daniels, Jena; Wall, Dennis P.

    2016-01-01

    The Mobile Autism Risk Assessment (MARA) is a new, electronically administered, 7-question autism spectrum disorder (ASD) screen to triage those at highest risk for ASD. Children 16 months-17 years (N = 222) were screened during their first visit in a developmental-behavioral pediatric clinic. MARA scores were compared to diagnosis from the…

  5. Evaluation of cardiovascular risk factors in patients with hypertension

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: Hypertension is a major health concern in developed and developing countries. Its prevalence is high in Nigeria and accounts for a great percentage of hospital visits and admissions. Hypertension is a chief risk factor for cardiovascular events. Independent risks factors, some of which are implicated in the ...

  6. Evaluating Determinants of Environmental Risk Perception for Risk Management in Contaminated Sites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janmaimool, Piyapong; Watanabe, Tsunemi

    2014-01-01

    Understanding the differences in the risk judgments of residents of industrial communities potentially provides insights into how to develop appropriate risk communication strategies. This study aimed to explore citizens’ fundamental understanding of risk-related judgments and to identify the factors contributing to perceived risks. An exploratory model was created to investigate the public’s risk judgments. In this model, the relationship between laypeople’s perceived risks and the factors related to the physical nature of risks (such as perceived probability of environmental contamination, probability of receiving impacts, and severity of catastrophic consequences) were examined by means of multiple regression analysis. Psychological factors, such as the ability to control the risks, concerns, experiences, and perceived benefits of industrial development were also included in the analysis. The Maptaphut industrial area in Rayong Province, Thailand was selected as a case study. A survey of 181 residents of communities experiencing different levels of hazardous gas contamination revealed rational risk judgments by inhabitants of high-risk and moderate-risk communities, based on their perceived probability of contamination, probability of receiving impacts, and perceived catastrophic consequences. However, risks assessed by people in low-risk communities could not be rationally explained and were influenced by their collective experiences. PMID:24937530

  7. Evaluation of Risk Management Strategies for a Low-Cost, High-Risk Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shishko, Robert; Jorgensen, Edward J.

    1996-01-01

    This paper summarizes work in progress to define and implement a risk management process tailored to a low-cost, high-risk, NASA mission -the Microrover Flight Experiment (MFEX, commonly called the Mars microrover).

  8. Chemical risk evaluation, importance of the risk analysis framework uses: Latin America development restrictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carrillo, M.

    2013-01-01

    The power point presentation is about reach and results of the risk analysis in Venezuela, chemical dangers in food, human damage, injuries , technologies news in fodd development, toxicity, microbiological risk, technical recommendations

  9. Emergency cricothyrotomy for trismus caused by instantaneous rigor in cardiac arrest patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jae Hee; Jung, Koo Young

    2012-07-01

    Instantaneous rigor as muscle stiffening occurring in the moment of death (or cardiac arrest) can be confused with rigor mortis. If trismus is caused by instantaneous rigor, orotracheal intubation is impossible and a surgical airway should be secured. Here, we report 2 patients who had emergency cricothyrotomy for trismus caused by instantaneous rigor. This case report aims to help physicians understand instantaneous rigor and to emphasize the importance of securing a surgical airway quickly on the occurrence of trismus. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Critical evaluation of the cancer risk of dibromochloropropane (DBCP).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Heather A; Snedeker, Suzanne M

    2005-01-01

    Dibromochloropropane (1,2-dibromo-3-chloropropane, DBCP), a pesticide used widely for over 20 years to control nematodes on crops, turf and in nurseries, was banned by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA) in 1977 because of evidence of infertility in men and induction of a variety of tumors in laboratory animals. Despite the ban on the use of DBCP, this pesticide remains persistent in soil and continues to be detected as a groundwater contaminant in areas of past high use, in particular California's Central Valley. In this review, we present a critical evaluation of the available scientific literature on the potential for DBCP to affect cancer risk, including the results of animal cancer bioassays, human epidemiological studies and in vitro and in vivo genotoxicity studies. In addition, we provide updated information on DBCP chemistry and metabolism, production and past use, current regulations, its environmental fate, potential for human exposure and current remediation efforts. Results from long-term cancer bioassays in rodents show a statistically significant increase in the incidence of malignant and benign mammary gland tumors in female rats treated orally with DBCP compared to controls and some evidence of increased incidence of mammary fibroadenomas in DBCP low-dose treated female rats exposed by inhalation. Significantly increased incidence of tumors of the forestomach occurred in both sexes of rats and mice treated orally. Rats exposed to DBCP by inhalation showed significant increases in tumors of the tunica vaginalis in males; tumors of the pharynx and adrenal gland in females; and tumors of the tongue, nasal turbinate and nasal cavity in both sexes compared to controls. Male and female mice exposed to DBCP by inhalation experienced increased tumor incidence in the lungs and nasal cavity compared to controls. Significant increases in tumors of the lung and forestomach have also been reported in female mice treated by a dermal route

  11. Study Design Rigor in Animal-Experimental Research Published in Anesthesia Journals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoerauf, Janine M; Moss, Angela F; Fernandez-Bustamante, Ana; Bartels, Karsten

    2018-01-01

    Lack of reproducibility of preclinical studies has been identified as an impediment for translation of basic mechanistic research into effective clinical therapies. Indeed, the National Institutes of Health has revised its grant application process to require more rigorous study design, including sample size calculations, blinding procedures, and randomization steps. We hypothesized that the reporting of such metrics of study design rigor has increased over time for animal-experimental research published in anesthesia journals. PubMed was searched for animal-experimental studies published in 2005, 2010, and 2015 in primarily English-language anesthesia journals. A total of 1466 publications were graded on the performance of sample size estimation, randomization, and blinding. Cochran-Armitage test was used to assess linear trends over time for the primary outcome of whether or not a metric was reported. Interrater agreement for each of the 3 metrics (power, randomization, and blinding) was assessed using the weighted κ coefficient in a 10% random sample of articles rerated by a second investigator blinded to the ratings of the first investigator. A total of 1466 manuscripts were analyzed. Reporting for all 3 metrics of experimental design rigor increased over time (2005 to 2010 to 2015): for power analysis, from 5% (27/516), to 12% (59/485), to 17% (77/465); for randomization, from 41% (213/516), to 50% (243/485), to 54% (253/465); and for blinding, from 26% (135/516), to 38% (186/485), to 47% (217/465). The weighted κ coefficients and 98.3% confidence interval indicate almost perfect agreement between the 2 raters beyond that which occurs by chance alone (power, 0.93 [0.85, 1.0], randomization, 0.91 [0.85, 0.98], and blinding, 0.90 [0.84, 0.96]). Our hypothesis that reported metrics of rigor in animal-experimental studies in anesthesia journals have increased during the past decade was confirmed. More consistent reporting, or explicit justification for absence

  12. Pest risk assessment of Monilinia fructicola for the EU territory and identification and evaluation of risk management options

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baker, R.; Candresse, T.; Dormannsné Simon, E.

    2011-01-01

    The EFSA Panel on Plant Health has delivered a pest risk assessment on the risk posed by Monilinia fructicola to the EU territory and has identified risk management options and evaluated their effectiveness in reducing the risk to plant health posed by this organism. The Panel has also analysed...... the effectiveness of the special requirements presently listed in Annex IV, Part A, Section I of Council Directive 2000/29/EC, in reducing the risk of introduction of this pest into the EU territory. The Panel concluded that the main pathways for entry into the EU territory are plant material for propagation...... of the risk assessment area. Cultural practices and control measures currently applied and competition with other Monilinia species cannot prevent the establishment of M. fructicola. The probability of spread is very likely because of the multiple ways of dispersal of the pest. The overall impact...

  13. Improving Phonological Awareness in Parents of Children at Risk of Literacy Difficulties: A Preliminary Evaluation of the Boost Program

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark E. Boyes

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available BackgroundPhonological awareness is an important skill underpinning the development of early literacy. Given the central role of parents in supporting the development of children’s early literacy skills, and that poor parental phonological awareness is associated with poorer child literacy outcomes, it is possible that improving parent phonological awareness may aid literacy development for at-risk children. This study is a preliminary evaluation of a program aiming to improve phonological awareness skills of parents in low socioeconomic status communities, and also provide these parents with strategies to support their child’s literacy development.MethodsAfter completing the program, participants were asked if it had helped them learn about how to assist their child’s reading and spelling, whether they planned on using the resources provided, and if they would be likely to attend a future workshop building on the Boost program. Phonological awareness measures (rhyme, syllable, and phoneme level, and measures of overall confidence in performance on the phonological awareness tasks, were administered both before and after attending the program.ResultsAlmost all parents indicated that the program helped with learning how to assist their child’s reading and spelling, that they would use the resources provided, and would likely attend a future workshop. Significant increases in pre- to post-program phonological awareness scores were obtained at the rhyme and phoneme level.ConclusionThe program and associated resources appear acceptable to parents in communities with high rates of literacy problems and improved parents’ phonological awareness skills. However, findings are preliminary and further evaluation using more rigorous methodologies and testing whether improvements in parents’ phonological awareness translate into better literacy outcomes for children is needed.

  14. Effectiveness evaluation of contingency sum as a risk management ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Ethiopian Journal of Environmental Studies and Management ... manage risks prone projects have adopted several methods, one of which is contingency sum. ... initial project cost, cost overrun and percentage allowed for contingency.

  15. Evaluation of Human Performance Issues for Fire Risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bley, Dennis C.; Cooper, Susan E.; Forester, John A.; Kolaczkowski, Alan M.; Ramey-Smith, Ann; Thompson, Catherine M.; Whitehead, Donnie W.; Wreathall, John

    1999-01-01

    This paper summarizes the current status of the treatment of human reliability in fire risk analyses for nuclear power plants and identifies areas that need to be addressed. A new approach is suggested to improve the modeling

  16. How to Map Theory: Reliable Methods Are Fruitless Without Rigorous Theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gray, Kurt

    2017-09-01

    Good science requires both reliable methods and rigorous theory. Theory allows us to build a unified structure of knowledge, to connect the dots of individual studies and reveal the bigger picture. Some have criticized the proliferation of pet "Theories," but generic "theory" is essential to healthy science, because questions of theory are ultimately those of validity. Although reliable methods and rigorous theory are synergistic, Action Identification suggests psychological tension between them: The more we focus on methodological details, the less we notice the broader connections. Therefore, psychology needs to supplement training in methods (how to design studies and analyze data) with training in theory (how to connect studies and synthesize ideas). This article provides a technique for visually outlining theory: theory mapping. Theory mapping contains five elements, which are illustrated with moral judgment and with cars. Also included are 15 additional theory maps provided by experts in emotion, culture, priming, power, stress, ideology, morality, marketing, decision-making, and more (see all at theorymaps.org ). Theory mapping provides both precision and synthesis, which helps to resolve arguments, prevent redundancies, assess the theoretical contribution of papers, and evaluate the likelihood of surprising effects.

  17. Evaluation of the quality of life and risk of suicide

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Verônica de Medeiros Alves

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To identify the socio-demographic profiles, suicidal ideation, the presence of mental disorders and the quality of life of patients using mental health services in Arapiraca, Alagoas, Brazil. METHOD: Interviews were conducted in family health units and the Psychosocial Attention Center. The sample included 202 mental disorder patients with a risk of suicide attempts, 207 mental disorder patients without a risk of suicide attempts and 196 controls. This study used an identification questionnaire, the abbreviated World Health Organization Quality of Life questionnaire, Beck‘s Suicidal Ideation Scale and the Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview. RESULTS: Patients who had a mental disorder and a risk of suicide attempts tended to be single, had less education and lower family income, were not working and showed lower scores in quality of life domains; 73 of these patients had suicidal ideation in the previous week. Depressive disorders, manic episodes, hypomanic episodes, social phobias, obsessive compulsive disorder, post-traumatic stress disorder, psychotic syndromes and generalized anxiety disorder were more frequent and statistically significant for patients at risk for suicide attempts. CONCLUSION: The management of patients with a risk of suicide attempts must focus on individual patients because this risk is directly linked to changes in quality of life and the improvement of these patients’ prognosis.

  18. Risk-benefit evaluation of nuclear power plant siting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miettinen, J.; Savolainen, I.; Silvennoinen, P.

    1976-01-01

    An assessment scheme is described for the risk-benefit analyses of nuclear power versus conventional alternatives. Given the siting parameters for the proposed nuclear plant an economic comparison is made with the most advantageous competitive conventional production scenario. The economic benefit is determined from the differential discounted annual energy procurement cost as a function of the real interest rate and amortization time. The risk analysis encompasses the following factors: radiation risks in normal operation, reactor accident hazards and economic risks, atmospheric pollutants from the conventional power plants, and fuel transportation. The hazards are first considered in terms of probabilistic dose distributions. In the second stage risk components are converted to a compatible form where excess mortality is used as the risk indicator. Practical calculations are performed for the power production alternatives of Helsinki where district heat would be extracted from the nuclear power plant. At the real interest rate of 10% and amortization time of 20 yr the 1000 MW(e) nuclear option is found to be Pound9.1 m per yr more economic than the optimal conventional scenario. Simultaneously the nuclear alternative is estimated to reduce excess mortality by 2 to 5 fatal injuries annually. (author)

  19. Evaluating the Investment Benefit of Multinational Enterprises' International Projects Based on Risk Adjustment: Evidence from China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Chong

    2016-01-01

    This study examines the international risks faced by multinational enterprises to understand their impact on the evaluation of investment projects. Moreover, it establishes a 'three-dimensional' theoretical framework of risk identification to analyse the composition of international risk indicators of multinational enterprises based on the theory…

  20. A risk based approach to firm evaluation applied to Dutch industries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    E.M. Vermeulen (Erik); J. Spronk (Jaap); D. van der Wijst (Nico)

    1992-01-01

    textabstractIn this paper, a method is developed to evaluate firms on the basis of the risks they face. In accordance with the multi-factor method, risk is represented as a vector of sensitivities for unexpected changes of risk factors. Subsequently, the sensitivities themselves are related to firm

  1. Memory sparing, fast scattering formalism for rigorous diffraction modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iff, W.; Kämpfe, T.; Jourlin, Y.; Tishchenko, A. V.

    2017-07-01

    The basics and algorithmic steps of a novel scattering formalism suited for memory sparing and fast electromagnetic calculations are presented. The formalism, called ‘S-vector algorithm’ (by analogy with the known scattering-matrix algorithm), allows the calculation of the collective scattering spectra of individual layered micro-structured scattering objects. A rigorous method of linear complexity is applied to model the scattering at individual layers; here the generalized source method (GSM) resorting to Fourier harmonics as basis functions is used as one possible method of linear complexity. The concatenation of the individual scattering events can be achieved sequentially or in parallel, both having pros and cons. The present development will largely concentrate on a consecutive approach based on the multiple reflection series. The latter will be reformulated into an implicit formalism which will be associated with an iterative solver, resulting in improved convergence. The examples will first refer to 1D grating diffraction for the sake of simplicity and intelligibility, with a final 2D application example.

  2. Rigorous Results for the Distribution of Money on Connected Graphs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lanchier, Nicolas; Reed, Stephanie

    2018-05-01

    This paper is concerned with general spatially explicit versions of three stochastic models for the dynamics of money that have been introduced and studied numerically by statistical physicists: the uniform reshuffling model, the immediate exchange model and the model with saving propensity. All three models consist of systems of economical agents that consecutively engage in pairwise monetary transactions. Computer simulations performed in the physics literature suggest that, when the number of agents and the average amount of money per agent are large, the limiting distribution of money as time goes to infinity approaches the exponential distribution for the first model, the gamma distribution with shape parameter two for the second model and a distribution similar but not exactly equal to a gamma distribution whose shape parameter depends on the saving propensity for the third model. The main objective of this paper is to give rigorous proofs of these conjectures and also extend these conjectures to generalizations of the first two models and a variant of the third model that include local rather than global interactions, i.e., instead of choosing the two interacting agents uniformly at random from the system, the agents are located on the vertex set of a general connected graph and can only interact with their neighbors.

  3. Rigorous vector wave propagation for arbitrary flat media

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bos, Steven P.; Haffert, Sebastiaan Y.; Keller, Christoph U.

    2017-08-01

    Precise modelling of the (off-axis) point spread function (PSF) to identify geometrical and polarization aberrations is important for many optical systems. In order to characterise the PSF of the system in all Stokes parameters, an end-to-end simulation of the system has to be performed in which Maxwell's equations are rigorously solved. We present the first results of a python code that we are developing to perform multiscale end-to-end wave propagation simulations that include all relevant physics. Currently we can handle plane-parallel near- and far-field vector diffraction effects of propagating waves in homogeneous isotropic and anisotropic materials, refraction and reflection of flat parallel surfaces, interference effects in thin films and unpolarized light. We show that the code has a numerical precision on the order of 10-16 for non-absorbing isotropic and anisotropic materials. For absorbing materials the precision is on the order of 10-8. The capabilities of the code are demonstrated by simulating a converging beam reflecting from a flat aluminium mirror at normal incidence.

  4. Dynamics of harmonically-confined systems: Some rigorous results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wu, Zhigang, E-mail: zwu@physics.queensu.ca; Zaremba, Eugene, E-mail: zaremba@sparky.phy.queensu.ca

    2014-03-15

    In this paper we consider the dynamics of harmonically-confined atomic gases. We present various general results which are independent of particle statistics, interatomic interactions and dimensionality. Of particular interest is the response of the system to external perturbations which can be either static or dynamic in nature. We prove an extended Harmonic Potential Theorem which is useful in determining the damping of the centre of mass motion when the system is prepared initially in a highly nonequilibrium state. We also study the response of the gas to a dynamic external potential whose position is made to oscillate sinusoidally in a given direction. We show in this case that either the energy absorption rate or the centre of mass dynamics can serve as a probe of the optical conductivity of the system. -- Highlights: •We derive various rigorous results on the dynamics of harmonically-confined atomic gases. •We derive an extension of the Harmonic Potential Theorem. •We demonstrate the link between the energy absorption rate in a harmonically-confined system and the optical conductivity.

  5. Concrete ensemble Kalman filters with rigorous catastrophic filter divergence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelly, David; Majda, Andrew J; Tong, Xin T

    2015-08-25

    The ensemble Kalman filter and ensemble square root filters are data assimilation methods used to combine high-dimensional, nonlinear dynamical models with observed data. Ensemble methods are indispensable tools in science and engineering and have enjoyed great success in geophysical sciences, because they allow for computationally cheap low-ensemble-state approximation for extremely high-dimensional turbulent forecast models. From a theoretical perspective, the dynamical properties of these methods are poorly understood. One of the central mysteries is the numerical phenomenon known as catastrophic filter divergence, whereby ensemble-state estimates explode to machine infinity, despite the true state remaining in a bounded region. In this article we provide a breakthrough insight into the phenomenon, by introducing a simple and natural forecast model that transparently exhibits catastrophic filter divergence under all ensemble methods and a large set of initializations. For this model, catastrophic filter divergence is not an artifact of numerical instability, but rather a true dynamical property of the filter. The divergence is not only validated numerically but also proven rigorously. The model cleanly illustrates mechanisms that give rise to catastrophic divergence and confirms intuitive accounts of the phenomena given in past literature.

  6. Rigorous derivation of porous-media phase-field equations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmuck, Markus; Kalliadasis, Serafim

    2017-11-01

    The evolution of interfaces in Complex heterogeneous Multiphase Systems (CheMSs) plays a fundamental role in a wide range of scientific fields such as thermodynamic modelling of phase transitions, materials science, or as a computational tool for interfacial flow studies or material design. Here, we focus on phase-field equations in CheMSs such as porous media. To the best of our knowledge, we present the first rigorous derivation of error estimates for fourth order, upscaled, and nonlinear evolution equations. For CheMs with heterogeneity ɛ, we obtain the convergence rate ɛ 1 / 4 , which governs the error between the solution of the new upscaled formulation and the solution of the microscopic phase-field problem. This error behaviour has recently been validated computationally in. Due to the wide range of application of phase-field equations, we expect this upscaled formulation to allow for new modelling, analytic, and computational perspectives for interfacial transport and phase transformations in CheMSs. This work was supported by EPSRC, UK, through Grant Nos. EP/H034587/1, EP/L027186/1, EP/L025159/1, EP/L020564/1, EP/K008595/1, and EP/P011713/1 and from ERC via Advanced Grant No. 247031.

  7. Rigorous time slicing approach to Feynman path integrals

    CERN Document Server

    Fujiwara, Daisuke

    2017-01-01

    This book proves that Feynman's original definition of the path integral actually converges to the fundamental solution of the Schrödinger equation at least in the short term if the potential is differentiable sufficiently many times and its derivatives of order equal to or higher than two are bounded. The semi-classical asymptotic formula up to the second term of the fundamental solution is also proved by a method different from that of Birkhoff. A bound of the remainder term is also proved. The Feynman path integral is a method of quantization using the Lagrangian function, whereas Schrödinger's quantization uses the Hamiltonian function. These two methods are believed to be equivalent. But equivalence is not fully proved mathematically, because, compared with Schrödinger's method, there is still much to be done concerning rigorous mathematical treatment of Feynman's method. Feynman himself defined a path integral as the limit of a sequence of integrals over finite-dimensional spaces which is obtained by...

  8. A Method for Evaluating Competency in Assessment and Management of Suicide Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hung, Erick K.; Binder, Renee L.; Fordwood, Samantha R.; Hall, Stephen E.; Cramer, Robert J.; McNiel, Dale E.

    2012-01-01

    Objective: Although health professionals increasingly are expected to be able to assess and manage patients' risk for suicide, few methods are available to evaluate this competency. This report describes development of a competency-assessment instrument for suicide risk-assessment (CAI-S), and evaluates its use in an objective structured clinical…

  9. Dynamic performances of the fallout radionuclides in the environment and related health risk evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morisawa, Shinsuke

    2003-01-01

    The framework was developed for evaluating the cancer induction mortality risk due to the prolonged exposure to the fallout Sr-90 in the environment, which was released by the atmospheric nuclear detonation tests, through dietary intake by considering the effect of foods and feeds import to Japan. The risk evaluation framework presented was composed of three sub-models: the model foe evaluation of the global circulation of Sr-90, the model for evaluation of Sr-90 concentration in foods and dietary intake, and the model for the cancer induction mortality risk. The mortality risk by the radiation-induced leukemia was evaluated based on the NUREG/CR-4214 model. The model was applied on the reference Japanese for past half century to evaluate the historical variation of the health risks. The new framework is presented and discussed on their feasibility to apply on the health risk evaluation due to the low-level and prolonged exposure to radionuclides in the environment. The possibility to use some kind of bio-markers are discussed to evaluate the potential health risk in advance before the risk will be actually detected. (author)

  10. Evaluating Risk Communication After the Fukushima Disaster Based on Nudge Theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murakami, Michio; Tsubokura, Masaharu

    2017-03-01

    Using nudge theory and some examples of risk communication that followed the Fukushima disaster, this article discusses the influences and justifications of risk communication, in addition to how risk communication systems are designed. To assist people in making decisions based on their own value systems, we provide three suggestions, keeping in mind that people can be influenced (ie, "nudged") depending on how risk communication takes place: (1) accumulate knowledge on the process of evaluating how the method of risk communication and a system's default design could impact people; (2) clarify the purpose and outcomes of risk communication; and (3) see what risk communication might be ethically unjustifiable. Quantitative studies on risk communication and collective narratives will provide some ideas for how to design better risk communication systems and to help people make decisions. Furthermore, we have shown examples of unjustifiable risk communication.

  11. Evaluation of Risk Versus Benefit Information in Direct-To-Consumer (DTC) Prescription Drug Television Advertisements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fahim, Germin; Toscani, Michael; Barone, Joseph A; Wang, Chris; Gandhi, Shivani

    2018-01-01

    The FDA's Presenting Risk Information draft guidance from May 2009 states that the time of risk versus benefit is a factor taken into consideration when evaluating audio and video direct-to-consumer (DTC) broadcasts. The objective of the study is to evaluate the proportion of risk narration on television (TV) advertisements in comparison to the actual proportion of serious adverse effects findings across select therapeutic areas. The study reviews prescription drug TV advertisements between the years 2010 and 2015 separated by therapeutic class. Indicators to assess risk versus benefit are as follows: total benefit time, total risk time, total ad time, percentage proportion of risk, and number of serious adverse effects (SAEs) listed in the package insert. The objective is establishing proportion of risk-to-benefit narration across therapeutic areas and the proportion of risk narration compared to the number of SAEs in the package insert. These outcomes will reflect whether TV advertisements abide by the "fair balance" rule and if the time spent on risk narrations is proportional to the number of SAEs across therapeutic areas. An analysis of risk versus benefit showed that there was a vast range of percentage differences in risk versus benefit narration across the products selected. The majority of the products narrated showed a 40% to 60% risk-to-benefit ratio. Six out of the 10 products evaluated communicated applicable black box warnings. There was variability among the SAE percentages presented between products. Lack of consistency exists between risks versus benefit proportions among different drug products.

  12. FDA-iRISK--a comparative risk assessment system for evaluating and ranking food-hazard pairs: case studies on microbial hazards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yuhuan; Dennis, Sherri B; Hartnett, Emma; Paoli, Greg; Pouillot, Régis; Ruthman, Todd; Wilson, Margaret

    2013-03-01

    Stakeholders in the system of food safety, in particular federal agencies, need evidence-based, transparent, and rigorous approaches to estimate and compare the risk of foodborne illness from microbial and chemical hazards and the public health impact of interventions. FDA-iRISK (referred to here as iRISK), a Web-based quantitative risk assessment system, was developed to meet this need. The modeling tool enables users to assess, compare, and rank the risks posed by multiple food-hazard pairs at all stages of the food supply system, from primary production, through manufacturing and processing, to retail distribution and, ultimately, to the consumer. Using standard data entry templates, built-in mathematical functions, and Monte Carlo simulation techniques, iRISK integrates data and assumptions from seven components: the food, the hazard, the population of consumers, process models describing the introduction and fate of the hazard up to the point of consumption, consumption patterns, dose-response curves, and health effects. Beyond risk ranking, iRISK enables users to estimate and compare the impact of interventions and control measures on public health risk. iRISK provides estimates of the impact of proposed interventions in various ways, including changes in the mean risk of illness and burden of disease metrics, such as losses in disability-adjusted life years. Case studies for Listeria monocytogenes and Salmonella were developed to demonstrate the application of iRISK for the estimation of risks and the impact of interventions for microbial hazards. iRISK was made available to the public at http://irisk.foodrisk.org in October 2012.

  13. Ratio K: a New Way of Metering and Evaluating the Risk and Return of Stock Investment

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    朱淑珍; 朱静怡

    2003-01-01

    Although widely used, both the Markowitz model and VAR (Value at Risk) model have some limitations in evaluating the risk and return of stock investnent.By the analysis of the conceptions of risk and return,together with the three hypotheses of technological analysis, a novelty model of metering and evaluating the risk and return of stock investnent is established.The major indicator of this model , risk-return ratio K, combines the characteristic indicators of risk and return. Regardless of the form of the risk-return probability density functions, this indicator K can always reflect the risk-return performances of the invested stocks clearly and accurately. How to use the model to make optimum investment and how to make portfolio combined with clustering analysis is also explained.

  14. Fundamentals of defining and evaluating technical risks and hazards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schoen, G.

    1982-01-01

    This contribution is concerned with discussions of undefined judicial concepts in the area of Safety engineering from the point of view of science and technology. Concepts like risk assessments, including accident probibility predictions are discussed and condensed in the demand: ''Risk must be acceptably low.'' Acceptability of risk is and remains a question of judgement. This judgement must be based on the specific plant involved, and in the final analysis; should be made on the basis of value judgements of all concerned. Measures and criteria for the acceptability of risk have been developed over the years. They will be determined by safety-related of security maximum acceptable values as stated in the appropriate regulations, as well as through licensing, permits, etc. Experience shows that a continuous expansion, based on safety-related research that would include extensive accident analysis, is needed. Should the status of science and technology change, it could become necessary that the measures or criteria for risk assessment would have to change also. (orig./HSCH) [de

  15. Evaluation of severe accident risks and the potential for risk reduction: Surry Power Station, Unit 1: Draft report for comment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benjamin, A.S.; Boyd, G.J.; Kunsman, D.M.; Murfin, W.B.; Williams, D.C.

    1987-02-01

    The Severe Accident Risk Reduction Program (SARRP) has completed a rebaselining of the risks to the public from a particular pressurized water reactor with a subatmospheric containment (Surry, Unit 1). Emphasis was placed on determining the magnitude and character of the uncertainties, rather than focusing on a point estimate. The risk-reduction potential of a set of proposed safety option backfits was also studied, and their costs and benefits were also evaluated. It was found that the risks from internal events are generally lower than previously evaluated in the Reactor Safety Study (RSS). However, certain unresolved issues (such as direct containment heating) caused the top of the uncertainty band to appear at a level that is comparable with the RSS point estimate. None of the postulated safety options appears to be cost effective for the Surry power plant. This work supports the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's assessment of severe accidents in NUREG-1150

  16. Evaluation of severe accident risks and the potential for risk reduction: Surry Power Station, Unit 1: Draft report for comment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Benjamin, A.S.; Boyd, G.J.; Kunsman, D.M.; Murfin, W.B.; Williams, D.C.

    1987-02-01

    The Severe Accident Risk Reduction Program (SARRP) has completed a rebaselining of the risks to the public from a particular pressurized water reactor with a subatmospheric containment (Surry, Unit 1). Emphasis was placed on determining the magnitude and character of the uncertainties, rather than focusing on a point estimate. The risk-reduction potential of a set of proposed safety option backfits was also studied, and their costs and benefits were also evaluated. It was found that the risks from internal events are generally lower than previously evaluated in the Reactor Safety Study (RSS). However, certain unresolved issues (such as direct containment heating) caused the top of the uncertainty band to appear at a level that is comparable with the RSS point estimate. None of the postulated safety options appears to be cost effective for the Surry power plant. This work supports the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's assessment of severe accidents in NUREG-1150.

  17. Analysis of dependent failures in risk assessment and reliability evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fleming, K.N.; Mosleh, A.; Kelley, A.P. Jr.; Gas-Cooled Reactors Associates, La Jolla, CA)

    1983-01-01

    The ability to estimate the risk of potential reactor accidents is largely determined by the ability to analyze statistically dependent multiple failures. The importance of dependent failures has been indicated in recent probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) studies as well as in reports of reactor operating experiences. This article highlights the importance of several different types of dependent failures from the perspective of the risk and reliability analyst and provides references to the methods and data available for their analysis. In addition to describing the current state of the art, some recent advances, pitfalls, misconceptions, and limitations of some approaches to dependent failure analysis are addressed. A summary is included of the discourse on this subject, which is presented in the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers/American Nuclear Society PRA Procedures Guide

  18. Evaluating health risks in communities near nuclear facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruttenber, A.J.

    1992-01-01

    Over the past 10 years, epidemiologic studies have been the most popular approach to examining health risks to populations near nuclear facilities. A review of these studies has identified a number of methodologic problems, particularly with regard to establishing causal relations between radiation exposure and disease. Recently, in the United States, dose reconstruction and risk assessment projects have been conducted as alternatives to epidemiologic studies. This paper reviews the problems associated with epidemiologic studies and discusses how dose reconstruction and risk assessment can serve as alternatives to epidemiologic studies. Examples are also provided to demonstrate how these techniques can be used to explore the feasibility of epidemiologic studies, and how dose reconstruction data can improve the quality of epidemiologic studies

  19. Quantitative evaluation of risks for individuals in diagnostic radiology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Iinuma, T A; Tateno, Y; Hashizume, T [National Inst. of Radiological Sciences, Chiba (Japan)

    1980-05-01

    A method to estimate quantitatively risks of individual patients due to exposure to diagnostic radiation (carcinogenetic and genetic effects of radiation) was proposed on the basis of ICRP-26. Carcinogenetic effect of radiation was calculated by multiplying mean dose equivalent for each organ per each radiological examination by shortening of average life-expectancy which was calculated from incidence of fetal carcinoma of each organ, latent period of carcinoma, and incidence period of carcinoma. Genetic effect of radiation was calculated by multiplying mean dose equivalent for gonad per each radiological examination by incidence of genetically severe radiation damages due to parent's exposure and child expectancy rate. Three examples were shown on calculations of risks in the photofluorographic examinations of the stomach and chest, and mammography. The same method of calculation could be applied to the in-vivo nuclear medicine examinations. Further investigation was required to calculate the risks quantitatively for various types of diagnostic procedures using radiation.

  20. Quantitative evaluation of risks for individuals in diagnostic radiology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iinuma, T.A.; Tateno, Yukio; Hashizume, Tadashi

    1980-01-01

    A method to estimate quantitatively risks of individual patients due to exposure to diagnostic radiation (carcinogenetic and genetic effects of radiation) was proposed on the basis of ICRP-26. Carcinogenetic effect of radiation was calculated by multiplying mean dose equivalent for each organ per each radiological examination by shortening of average life-expectancy which was calculated from incidence of fetal carcinoma of each organ, latent period of carcinoma, and incidence period of carcinoma. Genetic effect of radiation was calculated by multiplying mean dose equivalent for gonad per each radiological examination by incidence of genetically severe radiation damages due to parent's exposure and child expectancy rate. Three examples were shown on calculations of risks in the photofluorographic examinations of the stomach and chest, and mammography. The same method of calculation could be applied to the in-vivo nuclear medicine examinations. Further investigation was required to calculate the risks quantitatively for various types of diagnostic procedures using radiation. (Tsunoda, M.)

  1. A new perspective on Renn and Klinke's approach to risk evaluation and management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kristensen, V.; Aven, T.; Ford, D.

    2006-01-01

    In this paper we discuss Renn and Klinke's approach for risk evaluation and selection of risk management strategies. The main focus in the discussion is the foundational basis and the understanding of what risk is, and how a different foundational basis may simplify and improve the characterization of risk. We will present and discuss an alternative set of characteristics, and give some recommendations with respect to selection of risk management strategies based on different values or magnitudes of these characteristics. We believe that the main focus when describing and managing risk should be the potential consequences, represented by observable quantities, and the uncertainty related to their future values

  2. Evaluating the risk-reduction benefits of wind energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brower, M.C.; Bell, K.; Spinney, P. [and others

    1997-05-01

    The question of uncertainty and risk in electric utility resource planning has received considerable attention in recent years. During the 1980s, many utilities suffered financial losses because of unexpectedly high plant construction costs and low growth in electricity demand. In addition, the introduction of competition to the electric industry is creating new risks for power companies. No longer will utilities be able to count on regulatory protections and a base of captive consumers to provide a stable market and adequate return on their investments. Alternative risk management strategies will have to be considered instead. One approach to managing risk is for a utility company to invest in diverse power sources such as wind power plants. Since wind plants consume no fuel, can be built in relatively small increments with short construction lead times, and generate no pollutants, it is often said that they offer significant protection from risks associated with conventional fossil-fuel power plants. So far there have been few efforts to quantify these benefits, however. The study compares the costs and risks of two competing resource options, a gas-fired combined cycle plant and a wind plant, both utility-owned, through decision analysis. The case study utility is Texas Utilities Electric, a very large investor-owned company serving an area with substantial, high-quality wind resources. The authors chose a specific moment in the future - the year 2003 - when the utility currently plans to build a large fossil-fueled power plant, and examined the implications for the utility`s expected revenues, costs, and profits if a wind plant were to be built instead.

  3. Value at risk methodologies: Developments, implementation and evaluation

    OpenAIRE

    Dong, Simin

    2006-01-01

    Value at Risk (VaR) is a useful concept in risk disclosure, especially for financial institutions. In this paper, the origin and development as well as the regulatory requirement of VaR are discussed. Furthermore, a hypothetical foreign currency forward contract is used as an example to illustrate the implementation of VaR. Back testing is conducted to test the soundness of each VaR model. Analysis in this paper shows that historical simulation and Monte Carlo simulation approaches have more ...

  4. Stochastic Geometry and Quantum Gravity: Some Rigorous Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zessin, H.

    The aim of these lectures is a short introduction into some recent developments in stochastic geometry which have one of its origins in simplicial gravity theory (see Regge Nuovo Cimento 19: 558-571, 1961). The aim is to define and construct rigorously point processes on spaces of Euclidean simplices in such a way that the configurations of these simplices are simplicial complexes. The main interest then is concentrated on their curvature properties. We illustrate certain basic ideas from a mathematical point of view. An excellent representation of this area can be found in Schneider and Weil (Stochastic and Integral Geometry, Springer, Berlin, 2008. German edition: Stochastische Geometrie, Teubner, 2000). In Ambjørn et al. (Quantum Geometry Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1997) you find a beautiful account from the physical point of view. More recent developments in this direction can be found in Ambjørn et al. ("Quantum gravity as sum over spacetimes", Lect. Notes Phys. 807. Springer, Heidelberg, 2010). After an informal axiomatic introduction into the conceptual foundations of Regge's approach the first lecture recalls the concepts and notations used. It presents the fundamental zero-infinity law of stochastic geometry and the construction of cluster processes based on it. The second lecture presents the main mathematical object, i.e. Poisson-Delaunay surfaces possessing an intrinsic random metric structure. The third and fourth lectures discuss their ergodic behaviour and present the two-dimensional Regge model of pure simplicial quantum gravity. We terminate with the formulation of basic open problems. Proofs are given in detail only in a few cases. In general the main ideas are developed. Sufficiently complete references are given.

  5. RIGOROUS GEOREFERENCING OF ALSAT-2A PANCHROMATIC AND MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Boukerch

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available The exploitation of the full geometric capabilities of the High-Resolution Satellite Imagery (HRSI, require the development of an appropriate sensor orientation model. Several authors studied this problem; generally we have two categories of geometric models: physical and empirical models. Based on the analysis of the metadata provided with ALSAT-2A, a rigorous pushbroom camera model can be developed. This model has been successfully applied to many very high resolution imagery systems. The relation between the image and ground coordinates by the time dependant collinearity involving many coordinates systems has been tested. The interior orientation parameters must be integrated in the model, the interior parameters can be estimated from the viewing angles corresponding to the pointing directions of any detector, these values are derived from cubic polynomials provided in the metadata. The developed model integrates all the necessary elements with 33 unknown. All the approximate values of the 33 unknowns parameters may be derived from the informations contained in the metadata files provided with the imagery technical specifications or they are simply fixed to zero, so the condition equation is linearized and solved using SVD in a least square sense in order to correct the initial values using a suitable number of well-distributed GCPs. Using Alsat-2A images over the town of Toulouse in the south west of France, three experiments are done. The first is about 2D accuracy analysis using several sets of parameters. The second is about GCPs number and distribution. The third experiment is about georeferencing multispectral image by applying the model calculated from panchromatic image.

  6. A rigorous derivation of gravitational self-force

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gralla, Samuel E; Wald, Robert M

    2008-01-01

    There is general agreement that the MiSaTaQuWa equations should describe the motion of a 'small body' in general relativity, taking into account the leading order self-force effects. However, previous derivations of these equations have made a number of ad hoc assumptions and/or contain a number of unsatisfactory features. For example, all previous derivations have invoked, without proper justification, the step of 'Lorenz gauge relaxation', wherein the linearized Einstein equation is written in the form appropriate to the Lorenz gauge, but the Lorenz gauge condition is then not imposed-thereby making the resulting equations for the metric perturbation inequivalent to the linearized Einstein equations. (Such a 'relaxation' of the linearized Einstein equations is essential in order to avoid the conclusion that 'point particles' move on geodesics.) In this paper, we analyze the issue of 'particle motion' in general relativity in a systematic and rigorous way by considering a one-parameter family of metrics, g ab (λ), corresponding to having a body (or black hole) that is 'scaled down' to zero size and mass in an appropriate manner. We prove that the limiting worldline of such a one-parameter family must be a geodesic of the background metric, g ab (λ = 0). Gravitational self-force-as well as the force due to coupling of the spin of the body to curvature-then arises as a first-order perturbative correction in λ to this worldline. No assumptions are made in our analysis apart from the smoothness and limit properties of the one-parameter family of metrics, g ab (λ). Our approach should provide a framework for systematically calculating higher order corrections to gravitational self-force, including higher multipole effects, although we do not attempt to go beyond first-order calculations here. The status of the MiSaTaQuWa equations is explained

  7. Rigorous covariance propagation of geoid errors to geodetic MDT estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pail, R.; Albertella, A.; Fecher, T.; Savcenko, R.

    2012-04-01

    The mean dynamic topography (MDT) is defined as the difference between the mean sea surface (MSS) derived from satellite altimetry, averaged over several years, and the static geoid. Assuming geostrophic conditions, from the MDT the ocean surface velocities as important component of global ocean circulation can be derived from it. Due to the availability of GOCE gravity field models, for the very first time MDT can now be derived solely from satellite observations (altimetry and gravity) down to spatial length-scales of 100 km and even below. Global gravity field models, parameterized in terms of spherical harmonic coefficients, are complemented by the full variance-covariance matrix (VCM). Therefore, for the geoid component a realistic statistical error estimate is available, while the error description of the altimetric component is still an open issue and is, if at all, attacked empirically. In this study we make the attempt to perform, based on the full gravity VCM, rigorous error propagation to derived geostrophic surface velocities, thus also considering all correlations. For the definition of the static geoid we use the third release of the time-wise GOCE model, as well as the satellite-only combination model GOCO03S. In detail, we will investigate the velocity errors resulting from the geoid component in dependence of the harmonic degree, and the impact of using/no using covariances on the MDT errors and its correlations. When deriving an MDT, it is spectrally filtered to a certain maximum degree, which is usually driven by the signal content of the geoid model, by applying isotropic or non-isotropic filters. Since this filtering is acting also on the geoid component, the consistent integration of this filter process into the covariance propagation shall be performed, and its impact shall be quantified. The study will be performed for MDT estimates in specific test areas of particular oceanographic interest.

  8. Evaluating the Risk of Child Abuse: The Child Abuse Risk Assessment Scale (CARAS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, Ko Ling

    2012-01-01

    The present study developed the Child Abuse Risk Assessment Scale (CARAS), an actuarial instrument for the assessment of the risk of physical child abuse. Data of 2,363 Chinese parents (47.7% male) living in Hong Kong were used in the analyses. Participants were individually interviewed with a questionnaire assessing their perpetration of child…

  9. Obesity, physical activity and cancer risks: Results from the Cancer, Lifestyle and Evaluation of Risk Study (CLEAR).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nunez, Carlos; Bauman, Adrian; Egger, Sam; Sitas, Freddy; Nair-Shalliker, Visalini

    2017-04-01

    Physical activity (PA) has been associated with lower risk of cardiovascular diseases, but the evidence linking PA with lower cancer risk is inconclusive. We examined the independent and interactive effects of PA and obesity using body mass index (BMI) as a proxy for obesity, on the risk of developing prostate (PC), postmenopausal breast (BC), colorectal (CRC), ovarian (OC) and uterine (UC) cancers. We estimated odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI), adjusting for cancer specific confounders, in 6831 self-reported cancer cases and 1992 self-reported cancer-free controls from the Cancer Lifestyle and Evaluation of Risk Study, using unconditional logistic regression. For women, BMI was positively associated with UC risk; specifically, obese women (BMI≥30kg/m 2 ) had nearly twice the risk of developing UC compared to women with healthy-BMI-range (risk of developing any cancer type, CRC and PC. In particular, obese men had 37% (OR=1.37;CI:1.11-1.70), 113% (OR=2.13;CI:1.55-2.91) and 51% (OR=1.51;CI:1.17-1.94) higher risks of developing any cancer, CRC and PC respectively, when compared to men with healthy-BMI-range (BMIrisks of CRC, UC and BC. In particular, the highest level of PA (versus nil activity) was associated with reduced risks of CRC (OR=0.60;CI:0.44-0.84) and UC (OR=0.47;CI:0.27-0.80). Reduced risks of BC were associated with low (OR=0.66;CI:0.51-0.86) and moderate (OR=0.72;CI:0.57-0.91) levels of PA. There was no association between PA levels and cancer risks for men. We found no evidence of an interaction between BMI and PA in the CLEAR study. These findings suggest that PA and obesity are independent cancer risk factors. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Evaluation of risk factors and markers for cardiovascular disease in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Objectives: The study was designed to investigate the lipid profile, C- reactive protein and urinary level of micro-albumin as part of routine risk assessment in diabetic patients. Subjects and Methods: Plasma levels of total cholesterol, low density liproprotein cholesterol (LDL – C), high density lipoprotein cholesterol

  11. Evaluating Risk Perception based on Gender Differences for Mountaineering Activity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Susanto Novie

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available In average 26 death events in mountaineering per year for the time span from 2003 to 2012 is reported. The number of women dying during the mountaineering is significantly smaller than males (3.5 deaths male for one female death. This study aims to analyze the differences of risk perception based on gender and provide recommendations as education basic to prevent accidents in mountaineering. This study utilizes the Kruskal-Wallis test and the Delphi Method. A total of 200 mountaineer respondents (100 males and 100 females participated in this study. The independent variable in this study was gender. The dependent variable was risk perception including perception toward the serious accident, perception toward the probability of accident event as well as anxiety level and perception of efficacy and self-efficacy. The study result showed that the risk perception of women is higher than men with significant difference (p-value = 0.019. The recommendations from Delphi method result are by developing a positive mental attitude, showing about the risks that exist in nature, implementing Cognitive Behaviour Therapy (CBT to raise awareness of the safety of ownself, following the climbing or mountaineer school, and using instructors to give lessons about safety in outdoor activities.

  12. Occurrence of bovine hydatidosis and evaluation of its risk to ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Objective: To determine the occurrence, localization and fertility/sterility rates of hydatid cyst in cattle, to determine the prevalence of adult E. granulosus in dogs and asses the risk for human infection in traditional communities. Methods: Postmortem examination, hydatid cyst characterization, questionnaire survey and dog ...

  13. Evaluating Risk Perception based on Gender Differences for Mountaineering Activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Susanto, Novie; Susatyo, Nugroho W. P.; Rizkiyah, Ega

    2018-02-01

    In average 26 death events in mountaineering per year for the time span from 2003 to 2012 is reported. The number of women dying during the mountaineering is significantly smaller than males (3.5 deaths male for one female death). This study aims to analyze the differences of risk perception based on gender and provide recommendations as education basic to prevent accidents in mountaineering. This study utilizes the Kruskal-Wallis test and the Delphi Method. A total of 200 mountaineer respondents (100 males and 100 females) participated in this study. The independent variable in this study was gender. The dependent variable was risk perception including perception toward the serious accident, perception toward the probability of accident event as well as anxiety level and perception of efficacy and self-efficacy. The study result showed that the risk perception of women is higher than men with significant difference (p-value = 0.019). The recommendations from Delphi method result are by developing a positive mental attitude, showing about the risks that exist in nature, implementing Cognitive Behaviour Therapy (CBT) to raise awareness of the safety of ownself, following the climbing or mountaineer school, and using instructors to give lessons about safety in outdoor activities.

  14. A Research into Evaluation of Basketball Athletes' Risk Perception Level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karatas, Ozgur

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this study is to compare the risk perception levels of Basketball athletes in Turkish League teams according to some variables. In this research the "general screening model," which is one of the descriptive screening methods, was used. While the population of the study consists of athletes actively engaged in the Turkish…

  15. Incorporating risk in the economic evaluation of road infrastructure projects

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Schutte, IC

    2009-05-26

    Full Text Available credibility to the process and ensure strategic decisions that are more defendable. In this study, a prosedure for incorporating risk is suggested. It involves the identification of inputs critical to the economic success of the project, the quantification...

  16. Advances in Imaging Approaches to Fracture Risk Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manhard, Mary Kate; Nyman, Jeffry S.; Does, Mark D.

    2016-01-01

    Fragility fractures are a growing problem worldwide, and current methods for diagnosing osteoporosis do not always identify individuals who require treatment to prevent a fracture and may misidentify those not a risk. Traditionally, fracture risk is assessed using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry, which provides measurements of areal bone mineral density (BMD) at sites prone to fracture. Recent advances in imaging show promise in adding new information that could improve the prediction of fracture risk in the clinic. As reviewed herein, advances in quantitative computed tomography (QCT) predict hip and vertebral body strength; high resolution HR-peripheral QCT (HR-pQCT) and micro-magnetic resonance imaging (μMRI) assess the micro-architecture of trabecular bone; quantitative ultrasound (QUS) measures the modulus or tissue stiffness of cortical bone; and quantitative ultra-short echo time MRI methods quantify the concentrations of bound water and pore water in cortical bone, which reflect a variety of mechanical properties of bone. Each of these technologies provides unique characteristics of bone and may improve fracture risk diagnoses and reduce prevalence of fractures by helping to guide treatment decisions. PMID:27816505

  17. Risk in Enterprise Cloud Computing: Re-Evaluated

    Science.gov (United States)

    Funmilayo, Bolonduro, R.

    2016-01-01

    A quantitative study was conducted to get the perspectives of IT experts about risks in enterprise cloud computing. In businesses, these IT experts are often not in positions to prioritize business needs. The business experts commonly known as business managers mostly determine an organization's business needs. Even if an IT expert classified a…

  18. Evaluating Risk Awareness in Undergraduate Students Studying Mechanical Engineering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langdon, G. S.; Balchin, K.; Mufamadi, P.

    2010-01-01

    This paper examines the development of risk awareness among undergraduate students studying mechanical engineering at a South African university. A questionnaire developed at the University of Liverpool was modified and used on students from the first, second and third year cohorts to assess their awareness in the areas of professional…

  19. Evaluation of indicators for desertification risk assessment in part of ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    47

    The proposed methodology provides a series of effective indicators that would .... was made in the context of the 'MEDALUS' research project (Kosmas et al. 1999). ... The district experiences arid to semi-arid type of climate with average annual rainfall ..... In the present study qualitative desertification risk assessment has.

  20. Holistic Disaster Risk Evaluation for the Urban Risk Management Plan of Manizales, Colombia

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Martha Liliana Carre(n)o; Omar-Darío Cardona; Alex H.Barbat; Dora Catalina Suarez; María del Pilar Perez; Lizardo Narvaez

    2017-01-01

    Disaster risk depends on both the physical vulnerability and a wide range of social,economic,and environmental aspects of a society.For a better risk understanding,a holistic or integrated perspective was considered when risk was assessed for the city of Manizales,Colombia.This assessment accounts not only for the expected physical damage and loss,but also for the socioeconomic vulnerability factors that favor secondorder effects in a disaster.This comprehensive approach allows the identification of different aspects related to physical vulnerability,social fragility,and lack of resilience that can be improved,thus enhancing integrated disaster risk management actions.The outcomes of this comprehensive assessment are currently being used as input to update the disaster risk management plan of Manizales.

  1. Evaluation of Polygenic Risk Scores for Breast and Ovarian Cancer Risk Prediction in BRCA1 and BRCA2 Mutation Carriers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuchenbaecker, Karoline B.; McGuffog, Lesley; Barrowdale, Daniel; Lee, Andrew; Soucy, Penny; Healey, Sue; Dennis, Joe; Lush, Michael; Robson, Mark; Spurdle, Amanda B.; Ramus, Susan J.; Mavaddat, Nasim; Terry, Mary Beth; Neuhausen, Susan L.; Hamann, Ute; Southey, Melissa; John, Esther M.; Chung, Wendy K.; Daly, Mary B.; Buys, Saundra S.; Goldgar, David E.; Dorfling, Cecilia M.; van Rensburg, Elizabeth J.; Ding, Yuan Chun; Ejlertsen, Bent; Gerdes, Anne-Marie; Hansen, Thomas V. O.; Slager, Susan; Hallberg, Emily; Benitez, Javier; Osorio, Ana; Cohen, Nancy; Lawler, William; Weitzel, Jeffrey N.; Peterlongo, Paolo; Pensotti, Valeria; Dolcetti, Riccardo; Barile, Monica; Bonanni, Bernardo; Azzollini, Jacopo; Manoukian, Siranoush; Peissel, Bernard; Radice, Paolo; Savarese, Antonella; Papi, Laura; Giannini, Giuseppe; Fostira, Florentia; Konstantopoulou, Irene; Adlard, Julian; Brewer, Carole; Cook, Jackie; Davidson, Rosemarie; Eccles, Diana; Eeles, Ros; Ellis, Steve; Frost, Debra; Hodgson, Shirley; Izatt, Louise; Lalloo, Fiona; Ong, Kai-ren; Godwin, Andrew K.; Arnold, Norbert; Dworniczak, Bernd; Engel, Christoph; Gehrig, Andrea; Hahnen, Eric; Hauke, Jan; Kast, Karin; Meindl, Alfons; Niederacher, Dieter; Schmutzler, Rita Katharina; Varon-Mateeva, Raymonda; Wang-Gohrke, Shan; Wappenschmidt, Barbara; Barjhoux, Laure; Collonge-Rame, Marie-Agnès; Elan, Camille; Golmard, Lisa; Barouk-Simonet, Emmanuelle; Lesueur, Fabienne; Mazoyer, Sylvie; Sokolowska, Joanna; Stoppa-Lyonnet, Dominique; Isaacs, Claudine; Claes, Kathleen B. M.; Poppe, Bruce; de la Hoya, Miguel; Garcia-Barberan, Vanesa; Aittomäki, Kristiina; Nevanlinna, Heli; Ausems, Margreet G. E. M.; de Lange, J. L.; Gómez Garcia, Encarna B.; Hogervorst, Frans B. L.; Kets, Carolien M.; Meijers-Heijboer, Hanne E. J.; Oosterwijk, Jan C.; Rookus, Matti A.; van Asperen, Christi J.; van den Ouweland, Ans M. W.; van Doorn, Helena C.; van Os, Theo A. M.; Kwong, Ava; Olah, Edith; Diez, Orland; Brunet, Joan; Lazaro, Conxi; Teulé, Alex; Gronwald, Jacek; Jakubowska, Anna; Kaczmarek, Katarzyna; Lubinski, Jan; Sukiennicki, Grzegorz; Barkardottir, Rosa B.; Chiquette, Jocelyne; Agata, Simona; Montagna, Marco; Teixeira, Manuel R.; Park, Sue Kyung; Olswold, Curtis; Tischkowitz, Marc; Foretova, Lenka; Gaddam, Pragna; Vijai, Joseph; Pfeiler, Georg; Rappaport-Fuerhauser, Christine; Singer, Christian F.; Tea, Muy-Kheng M.; Greene, Mark H.; Loud, Jennifer T.; Rennert, Gad; Imyanitov, Evgeny N.; Hulick, Peter J.; Hays, John L.; Piedmonte, Marion; Rodriguez, Gustavo C.; Martyn, Julie; Glendon, Gord; Mulligan, Anna Marie; Andrulis, Irene L.; Toland, Amanda Ewart; Jensen, Uffe Birk; Kruse, Torben A.; Pedersen, Inge Sokilde; Thomassen, Mads; Caligo, Maria A.; Teo, Soo-Hwang; Berger, Raanan; Friedman, Eitan; Laitman, Yael; Arver, Brita; Borg, Ake; Ehrencrona, Hans; Rantala, Johanna; Olopade, Olufunmilayo I.; Ganz, Patricia A.; Nussbaum, Robert L.; Bradbury, Angela R.; Domchek, Susan M.; Nathanson, Katherine L.; Arun, Banu K.; James, Paul; Karlan, Beth Y.; Lester, Jenny; Simard, Jacques; Pharoah, Paul D. P.; Offit, Kenneth; Couch, Fergus J.; Chenevix-Trench, Georgia; Easton, Douglas F.

    2017-01-01

    Background: Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified 94 common single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with breast cancer (BC) risk and 18 associated with ovarian cancer (OC) risk. Several of these are also associated with risk of BC or OC for women who carry a pathogenic mutation in the high-risk BC and OC genes BRCA1 or BRCA2. The combined effects of these variants on BC or OC risk for BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers have not yet been assessed while their clinical management could benefit from improved personalized risk estimates. Methods: We constructed polygenic risk scores (PRS) using BC and OC susceptibility SNPs identified through population-based GWAS: for BC (overall, estrogen receptor [ER]–positive, and ER-negative) and for OC. Using data from 15 252 female BRCA1 and 8211 BRCA2 carriers, the association of each PRS with BC or OC risk was evaluated using a weighted cohort approach, with time to diagnosis as the outcome and estimation of the hazard ratios (HRs) per standard deviation increase in the PRS. Results: The PRS for ER-negative BC displayed the strongest association with BC risk in BRCA1 carriers (HR = 1.27, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.23 to 1.31, P = 8.2×10−53). In BRCA2 carriers, the strongest association with BC risk was seen for the overall BC PRS (HR = 1.22, 95% CI = 1.17 to 1.28, P = 7.2×10−20). The OC PRS was strongly associated with OC risk for both BRCA1 and BRCA2 carriers. These translate to differences in absolute risks (more than 10% in each case) between the top and bottom deciles of the PRS distribution; for example, the OC risk was 6% by age 80 years for BRCA2 carriers at the 10th percentile of the OC PRS compared with 19% risk for those at the 90th percentile of PRS. Conclusions: BC and OC PRS are predictive of cancer risk in BRCA1 and BRCA2 carriers. Incorporation of the PRS into risk prediction models has promise to better inform decisions on cancer risk management. PMID

  2. Sustainability Risk Evaluation for Large-Scale Hydropower Projects with Hybrid Uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Weiyao Tang

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available As large-scale hydropower projects are influenced by many factors, risk evaluations are complex. This paper considers a hydropower project as a complex system from the perspective of sustainability risk, and divides it into three subsystems: the natural environment subsystem, the eco-environment subsystem and the socioeconomic subsystem. Risk-related factors and quantitative dimensions of each subsystem are comprehensively analyzed considering uncertainty of some quantitative dimensions solved by hybrid uncertainty methods, including fuzzy (e.g., the national health degree, the national happiness degree, the protection of cultural heritage, random (e.g., underground water levels, river width, and fuzzy random uncertainty (e.g., runoff volumes, precipitation. By calculating the sustainability risk-related degree in each of the risk-related factors, a sustainable risk-evaluation model is built. Based on the calculation results, the critical sustainability risk-related factors are identified and targeted to reduce the losses caused by sustainability risk factors of the hydropower project. A case study at the under-construction Baihetan hydropower station is presented to demonstrate the viability of the risk-evaluation model and to provide a reference for the sustainable risk evaluation of other large-scale hydropower projects.

  3. The influence of low temperature, type of muscle and electrical stimulation on the course of rigor mortis, ageing and tenderness of beef muscles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olsson, U; Hertzman, C; Tornberg, E

    1994-01-01

    The course of rigor mortis, ageing and tenderness have been evaluated for two beef muscles, M. semimembranosus (SM) and M. longissimus dorsi (LD), when entering rigor at constant temperatures in the cold-shortening region (1, 4, 7 and 10°C). The influence of electrical stimulation (ES) was also examined. Post-mortem changes were registered by shortening and isometric tension and by following the decline of pH, ATP and creatine phosphate. The effect of ageing on tenderness was recorded by measuring shear-force (2, 8 and 15 days post mortem) and the sensory properties were assessed 15 days post mortem. It was found that shortening increased with decreasing temperature, resulting in decreased tenderness. Tenderness for LD, but not for SM, was improved by ES at 1 and 4°C, whereas ES did not give rise to any decrease in the degree of shortening during rigor mortis development. This suggests that ES influences tenderization more than it prevents cold-shortening. The samples with a pre-rigor mortis temperature of 1°C could not be tenderized, when stored up to 15 days, whereas this was the case for the muscles entering rigor mortis at the other higher temperatures. The results show that under the conditions used in this study, the course of rigor mortis is more important for the ultimate tenderness than the course of ageing. Copyright © 1994. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  4. Risk Analysis Based on AHP and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation for Maglev Train Bogie

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chengxin Fan

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The maglev bogie is the key subsystem for maglev train security. To ensure life and property security, it is essential to evaluate its risk level before its operation. In this paper, a combinational method of analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is proposed to assess hazards in a complex maglev bogie system associated with multiple subsystems’ failures. The very comprehensive identification of risk sources has been done by analyzing the structure of maglev bogie. Furthermore, based on the fuzzy theory, linguistic evaluation set is classified according to risk tolerance. The score of each risk factor is obtained by weighted sum of the result of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. Our results show that the degree of maglev bogie’s risk is within the range of acceptability. The merits of this work facilitate finding the weak links and determining the maintenance of maglev bogie system.

  5. Identifying and evaluating E-procurement in supply chain risk by Fuzzy MADM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mostafa Memarzade

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available E-procurement risks has emerged as an important issue for researchers and practitioners because mitigating supply chain risk helps improve firms’ as well as supply chains’ performance. E-marketplaces have been steadily growing and there have been significant interest in e-business research. There are different risks and uncertainties involved with E-marketplaces, which jeopardizes the sector but we have had a large amount of hype and the business still continue to grow. The primary aim of this study is to identify E-procurement risks and evaluate them using a fuzzy AHP framework. We contribute E-procurement risk by identifying 13 critical criteria and determine four important ones including the extent of acceptable information, interrelationship risk, lack of honesty in relationships and product quality and safety for evaluating suppliers’ risk.

  6. [Evaluation and prognosis of occupational risk in workers of nonferrous metallurgy enterprises].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shliapnikov, D M; Kostarev, V G

    2014-01-01

    The article deals with results of a priori and a posteriori evaluation of occupational risk for workers' health. Categories of a priori occupational risk for workers are estimated as high to very high (intolerable) risk. Findings are that work conditions in nonferrous metallurgy workshop result in upper respiratory tract diseases (medium degree of occupational conditionality). Increased prevalence of such diseases among the workers is connected with length of service. The authors revealed priority factors for occupationally conditioned diseases. A promising approach in occupational medicine is creation of methods to evaluate and forecast occupational risk, that enable to specify goal parameters for prophylactic measures. For example, modelling the risk of occupationally conditioned diseases via changes in exposure to occupational factor and length of service proved that decrease of chemical concentrations in air of workplace to maximally allowable ones lowers risk of respiratory diseases from 14 to 6 cases per year, for length of service of 5 years and population risk.

  7. Rigorous description of holograms of particles illuminated by an astigmatic elliptical Gaussian beam

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yuan, Y J; Ren, K F; Coetmellec, S; Lebrun, D, E-mail: fang.ren@coria.f [UMR 6614/CORIA, CNRS and Universite et INSA de Rouen Avenue de l' Universite BP 12, 76801 Saint Etienne du Rouvray (France)

    2009-02-01

    The digital holography is a non-intrusive optical metrology and well adapted for the measurement of the size and velocity field of particles in the spray of a fluid. The simplified model of an opaque disk is often used in the treatment of the diagrams and therefore the refraction and the third dimension diffraction of the particle are not taken into account. We present in this paper a rigorous description of the holographic diagrams and evaluate the effects of the refraction and the third dimension diffraction by comparison to the opaque disk model. It is found that the effects are important when the real part of the refractive index is near unity or the imaginary part is non zero but small.

  8. Evaluation of tsunami risk in the Lesser Antilles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Zahibo

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available The main goal of this study is to give the preliminary estimates of the tsunami risks for the Lesser Antilles. We investigated the available data of the tsunamis in the French West Indies using the historical data and catalogue of the tsunamis in the Lesser Antilles. In total, twenty-four (24 tsunamis were recorded in this area for last 400 years; sixteen (16 events of the seismic origin, five (5 events of volcanic origin and three (3 events of unknown source. Most of the tsunamigenic earthquakes (13 occurred in the Caribbean, and three tsunamis were generated during far away earthquakes (near the coasts of Portugal and Costa Rica. The estimates of tsunami risk are based on a preliminary analysis of the seismicity of the Caribbean area and the historical data of tsunamis. In particular, we investigate the occurrence of historical extreme runup tsunami data on Guadeloupe, and these data are revised after a survey in Guadeloupe.

  9. Evaluation of the risk of exposure to radon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Monchaux, G.

    2001-01-01

    The aim of this project was to assess the risk due to inhalation of radon and its decay products using a horizontal approach across a large-scale research programme. The central objective was the assessment of human risk, a task that required a combination of several programmes and involved a multidisciplinary approach. Five main topics were addressed: radioactive aerosol studies, modelling, human studies, animal studies and retrospective assessment of radon exposure. The five studies were distributed between working groups. The rationale of this project was to pool the expertise from laboratories working in different fields of radiation protection. This paper summarises the main achievements made through this multidisciplinary research programme and the synergies that occurred between the different groups. (author)

  10. Evaluations of maintenance effectiveness on unavailability and risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vesely, W.E.

    1993-01-01

    A methodology is presented for quantifying the effectiveness of maintenance on unavailability and on risk. The methodology is based on standard Markov modeling principles. What is new is the application to quantify maintenance effectiveness by explicitly quantifying maintenance benefits as well as maintenance's negative contributions. Maintenance effects are quantified by defining a degraded state for the component in addition to an operational state and a failed state which are usually defined. The maintenance model which is developed is a natural extension of the standard models used in reliability analysis and in Probabilistic Risk Assessments (PRAs). The results which are obtained can be directly used in PRAs. Applications of the methodology are presented by quantifying maintenance effectiveness on component performance and component unavailability for specific maintenance schedules

  11. Evaluation of technical risks in the application of the law

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sellner, D.

    1982-01-01

    The problems of definition -''hazard'', ''remaining risk''- will directly lead to the attempt to present the fundamental problems of risk assessment with which the administration of law is confronted. The differing tasks of the executive and the judiciary will also, by their very nature, influence the constellation of problems such as they appear in varying shades. Central to this question in the attempt to practically fulfill the formula of ''measure of practical-minded common sense'', as expressed by the Federal Constitutional Court. The focal point of difficulties centers were around the problems of atomic energy laws. Only in very few cases will if be possible to draw a parallel with the legal provisions governing the licensing of plants subject to the airborne pollution control laws; (BImSchG). (orig./HSCH) [de

  12. Evaluation of an inpatient fall risk screening tool to identify the most critical fall risk factors in inpatients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hou, Wen-Hsuan; Kang, Chun-Mei; Ho, Mu-Hsing; Kuo, Jessie Ming-Chuan; Chen, Hsiao-Lien; Chang, Wen-Yin

    2017-03-01

    To evaluate the accuracy of the inpatient fall risk screening tool and to identify the most critical fall risk factors in inpatients. Variations exist in several screening tools applied in acute care hospitals for examining risk factors for falls and identifying high-risk inpatients. Secondary data analysis. A subset of inpatient data for the period from June 2011-June 2014 was extracted from the nursing information system and adverse event reporting system of an 818-bed teaching medical centre in Taipei. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics, receiver operating characteristic curve analysis and logistic regression analysis. During the study period, 205 fallers and 37,232 nonfallers were identified. The results revealed that the inpatient fall risk screening tool (cut-off point of ≥3) had a low sensitivity level (60%), satisfactory specificity (87%), a positive predictive value of 2·0% and a negative predictive value of 99%. The receiver operating characteristic curve analysis revealed an area under the curve of 0·805 (sensitivity, 71·8%; specificity, 78%). To increase the sensitivity values, the Youden index suggests at least 1·5 points to be the most suitable cut-off point for the inpatient fall risk screening tool. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed a considerably increased fall risk in patients with impaired balance and impaired elimination. The fall risk factor was also significantly associated with days of hospital stay and with admission to surgical wards. The findings can raise awareness about the two most critical risk factors for falls among future clinical nurses and other healthcare professionals and thus facilitate the development of fall prevention interventions. This study highlights the needs for redefining the cut-off points of the inpatient fall risk screening tool to effectively identify inpatients at a high risk of falls. Furthermore, inpatients with impaired balance and impaired elimination should be closely

  13. The characterisation and evaluation of uncertainty in probabilistic risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parry, G.W.; Winter, P.W.

    1980-10-01

    The sources of uncertainty in probabilistic risk analysis are discussed using the event/fault tree methodology as an example. The role of statistics in quantifying these uncertainties is investigated. A class of uncertainties is identified which is, at present, unquantifiable, using either classical or Bayesian statistics. It is argued that Bayesian statistics is the more appropriate vehicle for the probabilistic analysis of rare events and a short review is given with some discussion on the representation of ignorance. (author)

  14. Evaluating the risk of osteoporosis through bone mass density

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sayed, S.A.; Khaliq, A.

    2017-01-01

    Osteoporosis is a bone disorder, characterized by loss of bone mass density. Osteoporosis affects more than 30 percent of post-menopausal women. Osteoporosis is often associated with restricted body movement, pain and joint deformities. Early identification and early intervention can help in reducing these complications. The primary objective of this study was to estimate the burden of Osteoporosis in Urban setting of Sindh among women of different age groups and to access the effect of different protective measures that can reduce the risk of Osteoporosis. Method: In this study, 500 women's of 3 major cities of Sindh were approached by non-probability convenience sampling technique. Women bearing age 20 years or more were included. Women who fall under inclusion criteria were screened for BMD (Bone mineral density) test and were classified as Healthy, Osteopenic and Osteoporotic based on their T-score. The association of different protective measures and risk of osteoporosis was assessed by prevalence relative risk (PRR). Result: The result of this study indicate that the burden of Osteoporosis is very high among the women of Sindh, only 17.4 percent (84) women were found to have normal BMD score. The life style of majority of women was sedentary. The PRR calculated for Exposure to sunlight, regular exercise, and use of nutritional supplement was 12.5, 5.19 and 2.72 folds respectively. Conclusion: The results of study reveal that exposure to sunlight, regular physical exercise and use of nutritional supplements found to be effective in reducing the risk of osteoporosis among women of all age group. Health education and promotion toward osteoporosis prevention can significantly contribute in reducing the morbidity of osteoporosis. (author)

  15. Evaluating The Risk Of Osteoporosis Through Bone Mass Density.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sayed, Sayeeda Amber; Khaliq, Asif; Mahmood, Ashar

    2016-01-01

    Osteoporosis is a bone disorder, characterized by loss of bone mass density. Osteoporosis affects more than 30% of post-menopausal women. Osteoporosis is often associated with restricted body movement, pain and joint deformities. Early identification and early intervention can help in reducing these complications. The primary objective of this study was to estimate the burden of Osteoporosis in Urban setting of Sindh among women of different age groups and to access the effect of different protective measures that can reduce the risk of Osteoporosis. In this study, 500 women's of 3 major cities of Sindh were approached by non-probability convenience sampling technique. Women bearing age 20 years or more were included. Women who fall under inclusion criteria were screened for BMD (Bone mineral density) test and were classified as Healthy, Osteopenic and Osteoporotic based on their T-score. The association of different protective measures and risk of osteoporosis was assessed by prevalence relative risk (PRR). The result of this study indicate that the burden of Osteoporosis is very high among the women of Sindh, only 17.4% (84) women were found to have normal BMD score. The life style of majority of women was sedentary. The PRR calculated for Exposure to sunlight, regular exercise, and use of nutritional supplement was 12.5, 5.19 and 2.72 folds respectively. The results of study reveal that exposure to sunlight, regular physical exercise and use of nutritional supplements found to be effective in reducing the risk of osteoporosis among women of all age group. Health education and promotion toward osteoporosis prevention can significantly contribute in reducing the morbidity of osteoporosis.

  16. Severe Accident Analysis for Combustible Gas Risk Evaluation inside CFVS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, NaRae; Lee, JinYong; Bang, YoungSuk; Lee, DooYong; Kim, HyeongTaek

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to identify the composition of gases discharged into the containment filtered venting system by analyzing severe accidents. The accident scenarios which could be significant with respect to containment pressurization and hydrogen generation are derived and composition of containment atmosphere and possible discharged gas mixtures are estimated. In order to ensure the safety of the public and environment, the ventilation system should be designed properly by considering discharged gas flow rate, aerosol loads, radiation level, etc. One of considerations to be resolved is the risk due to combustible gas, especially hydrogen. Hydrogen can be generated largely by oxidation of cladding and decomposition of concrete. If the hydrogen concentration is high enough and other conditions like oxygen and steam concentration is met, the hydrogen can burn, deflagrate or detonate, which result in the damage the structural components. In particularly, after Fukushima accident, the hydrogen risk has been emphasized as an important contributor threatening the integrity of nuclear power plant during the severe accident. These results will be used to analyze the risk of hydrogen combustion inside the CFVS as boundary conditions. Severe accident simulation results are presented and discussed qualitatively with respect to hydrogen combustion. The hydrogen combustion risk inside of the CFVS has been examined qualitatively by investigating the discharge flow characteristics. Because the composition of the discharge flow to CFVS would be determined by the containment atmosphere, the severe accident progression and containment atmosphere composition have been investigated. Due to PAR operation, the hydrogen concentration in the containment would be decreased until the oxygen is depleted. After the oxygen is depleted, the hydrogen concentration would be increased. As a result, depending on the vent initiation timing (i.e. vent initiation pressure), the important

  17. Severe Accident Analysis for Combustible Gas Risk Evaluation inside CFVS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, NaRae; Lee, JinYong; Bang, YoungSuk; Lee, DooYong [FNC Technology Co. Ltd., Yongin (Korea, Republic of); Kim, HyeongTaek [KHNP-Central Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-10-15

    The purpose of this study is to identify the composition of gases discharged into the containment filtered venting system by analyzing severe accidents. The accident scenarios which could be significant with respect to containment pressurization and hydrogen generation are derived and composition of containment atmosphere and possible discharged gas mixtures are estimated. In order to ensure the safety of the public and environment, the ventilation system should be designed properly by considering discharged gas flow rate, aerosol loads, radiation level, etc. One of considerations to be resolved is the risk due to combustible gas, especially hydrogen. Hydrogen can be generated largely by oxidation of cladding and decomposition of concrete. If the hydrogen concentration is high enough and other conditions like oxygen and steam concentration is met, the hydrogen can burn, deflagrate or detonate, which result in the damage the structural components. In particularly, after Fukushima accident, the hydrogen risk has been emphasized as an important contributor threatening the integrity of nuclear power plant during the severe accident. These results will be used to analyze the risk of hydrogen combustion inside the CFVS as boundary conditions. Severe accident simulation results are presented and discussed qualitatively with respect to hydrogen combustion. The hydrogen combustion risk inside of the CFVS has been examined qualitatively by investigating the discharge flow characteristics. Because the composition of the discharge flow to CFVS would be determined by the containment atmosphere, the severe accident progression and containment atmosphere composition have been investigated. Due to PAR operation, the hydrogen concentration in the containment would be decreased until the oxygen is depleted. After the oxygen is depleted, the hydrogen concentration would be increased. As a result, depending on the vent initiation timing (i.e. vent initiation pressure), the important

  18. Risk assessment methodology for evaluating releases of radioactively contaminated materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, S.Y.

    1993-01-01

    Extensive decontamination and decommissioning (D ampersand D) activities are expected to be required in the near future in association with license termination of nuclear power facilities and cleanup efforts at the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) weapons production facilities. In advance of these D ampersand D activities, it is becoming increasingly urgent that standards be established for the release of materials with residual radioactive contamination. The only standards for unrestricted release that currently exist address surface contamination. The methods used to justify those standards were developed some 20 yr ago and may not satisfy today's criteria. Furthermore, the basis of setting standards has moved away from the traditional open-quotes instrumentation-basedclose quotes concept toward a open-quotes risk-basedclose quotes approach. Therefore, as new release standards are developed, it will be necessary that risk assessment methodology consistent with modern concepts be incorporated into the process. This paper discusses recent developments in risk methodology and issues and concerns regarding the future development of standards for the release of radioactively contaminated materials

  19. Dose and risk evaluation in digital mammography using computer modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Correa, Samanda Cristine Arruda; Souza, Edmilson Monteiro de; Silva, Humberto de Oliveira; Silva, Ademir Xavier da; Lopes, Ricardo Tadeu; Magalhaes, Sarah Braga

    2010-01-01

    Digital mammography has been introduced in several countries in the last years. The new technology requires new optimising methods considering for instance the increased possibility of changing the absorbed dose, mainly in modern mammographic systems that allow the operator to choose the beam quality by varying the tube voltage, and filter and target materials. In this work, the Monte Carlo code MCNPX is used in order to investigate how the average glandular dose vary with tube voltage (23-32 kV) and anode-filter combination (Mo-Mo,Mo-Rh and Rh-Rh) in digital mammographic examinations. Furthermore, the risk of breast cancer incidence attributable to mammography exams was estimated using the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiations (BEIR) VII Committee Report. The results show that the risk of breast cancer incidence in women younger than 30 years of age tends to decrease significantly using Rh-Rh anode-filter combination and higher tube voltage. For women older than 50 years of age the variation of tube voltage, and anode-filter combination did not influence the risk values considerably. (author)

  20. Evaluating risk using bounding calculations and limited data; TOPICAL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    COWLEY, W.L.

    1999-01-01

    This paper describes a methodology for estimating the potential risk to workers and the public from igniting organic solvents in any of the 177 underground waste storage tanks at the Hanford Site in southeastern Washington state. The Hanford Site is one of the U.S. Department of Energy's former production facilities for nuclear materials. The tanks contain mixed radioactive wastes. Risk is measured by calculating toxicological and radiological accident consequences and frequencies and comparing the results to established regulatory guidelines. Available sample data is insufficient to adequately characterize the waste and solvent, so a model that maximizes releases from the tanks (bounding case) is used. Maximizing releases (and thus consequences) is a standard technique used in safety analysis to compensate for lack of information. The model predicts bounding values of fire duration, the time at which the fire extinguishes because of lack of oxygen, and a pressure history of a fire in a tank. The model output is used to calculate mass and volume release rates of material from the tanks. The mass and volume release rates permit calculation of radiological and toxicological consequences. The resulting consequence calculations demonstrate that risk from an organic solvent fire in the tanks is within regulatory guidelines

  1. Canadian Cancer Risk Management Model: evaluation of cancer control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, William K; Wolfson, Michael C; Flanagan, William M; Shin, Janey; Goffin, John; Miller, Anthony B; Asakawa, Keiko; Earle, Craig; Mittmann, Nicole; Fairclough, Lee; Oderkirk, Jillian; Finès, Philippe; Gribble, Stephen; Hoch, Jeffrey; Hicks, Chantal; Omariba, D Walter R; Ng, Edward

    2013-04-01

    The aim of this study was to develop a decision support tool to assess the potential benefits and costs of new healthcare interventions. The Canadian Partnership Against Cancer (CPAC) commissioned the development of a Cancer Risk Management Model (CRMM)--a computer microsimulation model that simulates individual lives one at a time, from birth to death, taking account of Canadian demographic and labor force characteristics, risk factor exposures, and health histories. Information from all the simulated lives is combined to produce aggregate measures of health outcomes for the population or for particular subpopulations. The CRMM can project the population health and economic impacts of cancer control programs in Canada and the impacts of major risk factors, cancer prevention, and screening programs and new cancer treatments on population health and costs to the healthcare system. It estimates both the direct costs of medical care, as well as lost earnings and impacts on tax revenues. The lung and colorectal modules are available through the CPAC Web site (www.cancerview.ca/cancerrriskmanagement) to registered users where structured scenarios can be explored for their projected impacts. Advanced users will be able to specify new scenarios or change existing modules by varying input parameters or by accessing open source code. Model development is now being extended to cervical and breast cancers.

  2. Evaluation of risk factors in women with puerperal genital hematomas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    İskender, Cantekin; Topçu, Hasan Onur; Timur, Hakan; Oskovi, Aslı; Göksu, Gonca; Sucak, Ayhan; Danışman, Nuri

    2016-01-01

    Our aim was to assess the incidence and risk factors of the puerperal genital hematomas (PGH). We retrospectively reviewed recorded cases of PGH at Zekai Tahir Burak Research and Training Hospital, Ankara, Turkey, between January 2010 and 2014. Next three patients were chosen as control group. There were 47 cases of PGH with an incidence of 1 in 762 deliveries. Patients with PGH were younger, more likely to be nulliparous and had a greater weight gain during pregnancy than the control group. Patients with PGH had a longer first and second stage of labor than the control group. Mediolateral episiotomy and operative delivery were more frequently performed in patients with PGH than the control group. Neonates born to mothers with PGH were heavier than the control group (3525 ± 428 versus 3325 ± 579; p = 0.031). In the logistic regression model, nulliparity (OR: 8.68, 95% CI = 2.96-25.3), instrumental delivery (OR: 7.96, 95% CI = 1.37-49.0) and mediolateral episiotomy (OR: 6.67, 95% CI = 2.61-17.1) were factors which had an independent impact on risk of PGH. Nulliparity, instrumental delivery and mediolateral episiotomy are the main risk factors for hematomas.

  3. Dose and risk evaluation in digital mammography using computer modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Correa, Samanda Cristine Arruda; Souza, Edmilson Monteiro de, E-mail: scorrea@nuclear.ufrj.b, E-mail: emonteiro@nuclear.ufrj.b [Centro Universitario Estadual da Zona Oeste (CCMAT/UEZO), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Silva, Humberto de Oliveira, E-mail: hbetorj@gmail.co [Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro IF/UFRJ, RJ (Brazil). Inst. de Fisica; Silva, Ademir Xavier da; Lopes, Ricardo Tadeu; Magalhaes, Sarah Braga, E-mail: ademir@nuclear.ufrj.b, E-mail: ricardo@lin.ufrj.b, E-mail: smagalhaes@nuclear.ufrj.b [Coordenacao dos Programas de Pos-Graduacao de Engenharia (COPPE/UFRJ), RJ (Brazil). Programa de Engenharia Nuclear

    2010-07-01

    Digital mammography has been introduced in several countries in the last years. The new technology requires new optimising methods considering for instance the increased possibility of changing the absorbed dose, mainly in modern mammographic systems that allow the operator to choose the beam quality by varying the tube voltage, and filter and target materials. In this work, the Monte Carlo code MCNPX is used in order to investigate how the average glandular dose vary with tube voltage (23-32 kV) and anode-filter combination (Mo-Mo,Mo-Rh and Rh-Rh) in digital mammographic examinations. Furthermore, the risk of breast cancer incidence attributable to mammography exams was estimated using the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiations (BEIR) VII Committee Report. The results show that the risk of breast cancer incidence in women younger than 30 years of age tends to decrease significantly using Rh-Rh anode-filter combination and higher tube voltage. For women older than 50 years of age the variation of tube voltage, and anode-filter combination did not influence the risk values considerably. (author)

  4. Integration of industrial risk in regional policy management. Possibilities of evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubert, Philippe; Pages, Pierre

    1990-02-01

    Since the responsibility for risk management depends more and more on regional factors, evaluation methods and management regulations are not developed enough. This study start from the fact that an important methods exist for evaluation transport of dangerous materials in cities, risk analysis and emergency plans related to classified installations, management of quality of water, 'chronic' industrial risks at local and regional level, probabilistic estimation for industrial plants. The objective is in fact to show what risk analysis could bring to the municipality, the city or the region [fr

  5. Study on the evaluation system for the coal safety management based on risk pre-control

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Xin-chun; XU Hai-xia; WANG Pei; SONG Xue-feng

    2009-01-01

    The new type of risk management is process management.First,the hazard sources are identified before coal mine accidents occur,and then the pre-control measure and information monitoring method based on classifying the hidden hazard sources are given.Lastly,the risk pre-alarm and risk control method are confirmed,the management standard and management measure are used to eliminate the hidden hazard sources.In this study,an evaluation system is built to evaluate the result of risk management.

  6. How Individual Scholars Can Reduce the Rigor-Relevance Gap in Management Research

    OpenAIRE

    Wolf, Joachim; Rosenberg, Timo

    2012-01-01

    This paper discusses a number of avenues management scholars could follow to reduce the existing gap between scientific rigor and practical relevance without relativizing the importance of the first goal dimension. Such changes are necessary because many management studies do not fully exploit the possibilities to increase their practical relevance while maintaining scientific rigor. We argue that this rigor-relevance gap is not only the consequence of the currently prevailing institutional c...

  7. RIGOR MORTIS AND THE INFLUENCE OF CALCIUM AND MAGNESIUM SALTS UPON ITS DEVELOPMENT.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meltzer, S J; Auer, J

    1908-01-01

    Calcium salts hasten and magnesium salts retard the development of rigor mortis, that is, when these salts are administered subcutaneously or intravenously. When injected intra-arterially, concentrated solutions of both kinds of salts cause nearly an immediate onset of a strong stiffness of the muscles which is apparently a contraction, brought on by a stimulation caused by these salts and due to osmosis. This contraction, if strong, passes over without a relaxation into a real rigor. This form of rigor may be classed as work-rigor (Arbeitsstarre). In animals, at least in frogs, with intact cords, the early contraction and the following rigor are stronger than in animals with destroyed cord. If M/8 solutions-nearly equimolecular to "physiological" solutions of sodium chloride-are used, even when injected intra-arterially, calcium salts hasten and magnesium salts retard the onset of rigor. The hastening and retardation in this case as well as in the cases of subcutaneous and intravenous injections, are ion effects and essentially due to the cations, calcium and magnesium. In the rigor hastened by calcium the effects of the extensor muscles mostly prevail; in the rigor following magnesium injection, on the other hand, either the flexor muscles prevail or the muscles become stiff in the original position of the animal at death. There seems to be no difference in the degree of stiffness in the final rigor, only the onset and development of the rigor is hastened in the case of the one salt and retarded in the other. Calcium hastens also the development of heat rigor. No positive facts were obtained with regard to the effect of magnesium upon heat vigor. Calcium also hastens and magnesium retards the onset of rigor in the left ventricle of the heart. No definite data were gathered with regard to the effects of these salts upon the right ventricle.

  8. Standards and Methodological Rigor in Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension Preclinical and Translational Research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Provencher, Steeve; Archer, Stephen L; Ramirez, F Daniel; Hibbert, Benjamin; Paulin, Roxane; Boucherat, Olivier; Lacasse, Yves; Bonnet, Sébastien

    2018-03-30

    Despite advances in our understanding of the pathophysiology and the management of pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH), significant therapeutic gaps remain for this devastating disease. Yet, few innovative therapies beyond the traditional pathways of endothelial dysfunction have reached clinical trial phases in PAH. Although there are inherent limitations of the currently available models of PAH, the leaky pipeline of innovative therapies relates, in part, to flawed preclinical research methodology, including lack of rigour in trial design, incomplete invasive hemodynamic assessment, and lack of careful translational studies that replicate randomized controlled trials in humans with attention to adverse effects and benefits. Rigorous methodology should include the use of prespecified eligibility criteria, sample sizes that permit valid statistical analysis, randomization, blinded assessment of standardized outcomes, and transparent reporting of results. Better design and implementation of preclinical studies can minimize inherent flaws in the models of PAH, reduce the risk of bias, and enhance external validity and our ability to distinguish truly promising therapies form many false-positive or overstated leads. Ideally, preclinical studies should use advanced imaging, study several preclinical pulmonary hypertension models, or correlate rodent and human findings and consider the fate of the right ventricle, which is the major determinant of prognosis in human PAH. Although these principles are widely endorsed, empirical evidence suggests that such rigor is often lacking in pulmonary hypertension preclinical research. The present article discusses the pitfalls in the design of preclinical pulmonary hypertension trials and discusses opportunities to create preclinical trials with improved predictive value in guiding early-phase drug development in patients with PAH, which will need support not only from researchers, peer reviewers, and editors but also from

  9. Risk-based evaluation of Allowed Outage Times (AOTs) considering risk of shutdown

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mankamo, T.; Kim, I.S.; Samanta, P.K.

    1992-01-01

    When safety systems fail during power operation, Technical Specifications (TS) usually limit the repair within Allowed Outage Time (AOT). If the repair cannot be completed within the AOT, or no AOT is allowed, the plant is required to be shut down for the repair. However, if the capability to remove decay heat is degraded, shutting down the plant with the need to operate the affected decay-heat removal systems may impose a substantial risk compared to continued power operation over a usual repair time. Thus, defining a proper AOT in such situations can be considered as a risk-comparison between the repair in frill power state with a temporarily increased level of risk, and the altemative of shutting down the plant for the repair in zero power state with a specific associated risk. The methodology of the risk-comparison approach, with a due consideration of the shutdown risk, has been further developed and applied to the AOT considerations of residual heat removal and standby service water systems of a boiling water reactor (BWR) plant. Based on the completed work, several improvements to the TS requirements for the systems studied can be suggested

  10. Threshold Evaluation of Emergency Risk Communication for Health Risks Related to Hazardous Ambient Temperature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yang; Hoppe, Brenda O; Convertino, Matteo

    2018-04-10

    Emergency risk communication (ERC) programs that activate when the ambient temperature is expected to cross certain extreme thresholds are widely used to manage relevant public health risks. In practice, however, the effectiveness of these thresholds has rarely been examined. The goal of this study is to test if the activation criteria based on extreme temperature thresholds, both cold and heat, capture elevated health risks for all-cause and cause-specific mortality and morbidity in the Minneapolis-St. Paul Metropolitan Area. A distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) combined with a quasi-Poisson generalized linear model is used to derive the exposure-response functions between daily maximum heat index and mortality (1998-2014) and morbidity (emergency department visits; 2007-2014). Specific causes considered include cardiovascular, respiratory, renal diseases, and diabetes. Six extreme temperature thresholds, corresponding to 1st-3rd and 97th-99th percentiles of local exposure history, are examined. All six extreme temperature thresholds capture significantly increased relative risks for all-cause mortality and morbidity. However, the cause-specific analyses reveal heterogeneity. Extreme cold thresholds capture increased mortality and morbidity risks for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases and extreme heat thresholds for renal disease. Percentile-based extreme temperature thresholds are appropriate for initiating ERC targeting the general population. Tailoring ERC by specific causes may protect some but not all individuals with health conditions exacerbated by hazardous ambient temperature exposure. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

  11. Risk-adjusted Outcomes of Clinically Relevant Pancreatic Fistula Following Pancreatoduodenectomy: A Model for Performance Evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMillan, Matthew T; Soi, Sameer; Asbun, Horacio J; Ball, Chad G; Bassi, Claudio; Beane, Joal D; Behrman, Stephen W; Berger, Adam C; Bloomston, Mark; Callery, Mark P; Christein, John D; Dixon, Elijah; Drebin, Jeffrey A; Castillo, Carlos Fernandez-Del; Fisher, William E; Fong, Zhi Ven; House, Michael G; Hughes, Steven J; Kent, Tara S; Kunstman, John W; Malleo, Giuseppe; Miller, Benjamin C; Salem, Ronald R; Soares, Kevin; Valero, Vicente; Wolfgang, Christopher L; Vollmer, Charles M

    2016-08-01

    To evaluate surgical performance in pancreatoduodenectomy using clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula (CR-POPF) occurrence as a quality indicator. Accurate assessment of surgeon and institutional performance requires (1) standardized definitions for the outcome of interest and (2) a comprehensive risk-adjustment process to control for differences in patient risk. This multinational, retrospective study of 4301 pancreatoduodenectomies involved 55 surgeons at 15 institutions. Risk for CR-POPF was assessed using the previously validated Fistula Risk Score, and pancreatic fistulas were stratified by International Study Group criteria. CR-POPF variability was evaluated and hierarchical regression analysis assessed individual surgeon and institutional performance. There was considerable variability in both CR-POPF risk and occurrence. Factors increasing the risk for CR-POPF development included increasing Fistula Risk Score (odds ratio 1.49 per point, P ratio 3.30, P performance outliers were identified at the surgeon and institutional levels. Of the top 10 surgeons (≥15 cases) for nonrisk-adjusted performance, only 6 remained in this high-performing category following risk adjustment. This analysis of pancreatic fistulas following pancreatoduodenectomy demonstrates considerable variability in both the risk and occurrence of CR-POPF among surgeons and institutions. Disparities in patient risk between providers reinforce the need for comprehensive, risk-adjusted modeling when assessing performance based on procedure-specific complications. Furthermore, beyond inherent patient risk factors, surgical decision-making influences fistula outcomes.

  12. [Pollution Evaluation and Risk Assessment of Heavy Metals from Atmospheric Deposition in the Parks of Nanjing].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Cheng; Qian, Xin; Li, Hui-ming; Sun, Yi-xuan; Wang, Jin-hua

    2016-05-15

    Contents of heavy metals involving As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn from atmospheric deposition in 10 parks of Nanjing were analyzed. The pollution level, ecological risk and health risk were evaluated using Geoaccumulation Index, Potential Ecological Risk Index and the US EPA Health Risk Assessment Model, respectively. The results showed that the pollution levels of heavy metals in Swallow Rock Park, Swallow Rock Park and Mochou Lake Park were higher than the others. Compared to other cities such as Changchun, Wuhan and Beijing, the contents of heavy metals in atmospheric deposition of parks in Nanjing were higher. The evaluation results of Geoaccumulation Index showed that Pb was at moderate pollution level, Zn and Cu were between moderate and serious levels, while Cd was between serious and extreme levels. The ecological risk level of Cd was high. The assessment results of Health Risk Assessment Model indicated that there was no non-carcinogenic risk for all the seven heavy metals. For carcinogenic risk, the risks of Cd, Cr and Ni were all negligible (Risk < 1 x 10⁻⁶), whereas As had carcinogenic risk possibility but was considered to be acceptable (10⁻⁶ < Risk < 10⁻⁴).

  13. Mammary radiotherapy and patients-risks management with continue evaluation of clinical indicators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Untereiner, M.; Frederick, B.; Burie, D.; Cavuto, C.; Rob, L.; Coiffier, N.; Colet, M.

    2009-01-01

    Purpose: The breast irradiation represents 25% of radiotherapy indication in the radiotherapy centers. The modeling of the management of complications risks and recurrences in relation with mammary irradiation constitutes a methodological base allowing to develop a general concept for any other indication of radiotherapy. The objective of the study was a continuous evaluation of clinical risks to get indicators of the therapy results: for the institution, to get an auto-evaluation tool of the functioning (continuous evaluation of clinical results, identification of sentinel events); for the patients to get precise and detailed information on the risks linked to their treatment (communication of clinical results, comparison with the literature, benchmarking). (N.C.)

  14. A new look at the statistical assessment of approximate and rigorous methods for the estimation of stabilized formation temperatures in geothermal and petroleum wells

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Espinoza-Ojeda, O M; Santoyo, E; Andaverde, J

    2011-01-01

    Approximate and rigorous solutions of seven heat transfer models were statistically examined, for the first time, to estimate stabilized formation temperatures (SFT) of geothermal and petroleum boreholes. Constant linear and cylindrical heat source models were used to describe the heat flow (either conductive or conductive/convective) involved during a borehole drilling. A comprehensive statistical assessment of the major error sources associated with the use of these models was carried out. The mathematical methods (based on approximate and rigorous solutions of heat transfer models) were thoroughly examined by using four statistical analyses: (i) the use of linear and quadratic regression models to infer the SFT; (ii) the application of statistical tests of linearity to evaluate the actual relationship between bottom-hole temperatures and time function data for each selected method; (iii) the comparative analysis of SFT estimates between the approximate and rigorous predictions of each analytical method using a β ratio parameter to evaluate the similarity of both solutions, and (iv) the evaluation of accuracy in each method using statistical tests of significance, and deviation percentages between 'true' formation temperatures and SFT estimates (predicted from approximate and rigorous solutions). The present study also enabled us to determine the sensitivity parameters that should be considered for a reliable calculation of SFT, as well as to define the main physical and mathematical constraints where the approximate and rigorous methods could provide consistent SFT estimates

  15. A study of risk evaluation methodology selection for the external hazards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuramoto, Takahiro; Yamaguchi, Akira; Narumiya, Yosiyuki

    2014-01-01

    Since the accident at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant caused by the Great East Japan Earthquake in March 2011, there has been growing demands for assessing the effects of external hazards, including natural events, such as earthquake and tsunami, and external human behaviors, and taking actions to address those external hazards. The newly established Japanese regulatory requirements claim design considerations associated with external hazards. The primary objective of the risk assessment for external hazards is to establish countermeasures against such hazards rather than grasping the risk figures. Therefore, applying detailed risk assessment methods, such as probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), to all the external hazards is not always the most appropriate. Risk assessment methods can vary in types including qualitative evaluation, hazard analysis (analyzing hazard frequencies or their influence), and margin assessment. To resolve these issues, a process has been established that enables us to identify the external hazards in a comprehensive and systematic manner, which have potential risks leading to core damage and to select an appropriate evaluation method according to the risks associated with each of the external hazards. This paper discusses the comprehensive and systematic identification process for the external hazards which have potential risks leading to core damage, and the approaches of selecting an appropriate evaluation method for each external hazard. This paper also describes some applications of specific risk evaluation methods. (author)

  16. The additivity of radionuclide and chemical risk estimates in performance evaluation of mixed-waste sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Till, J.E.; Meyer, K.R.

    1990-01-01

    Methods for assessing radioactive waste sites that contain chemical constituents are in the formative stages. In evaluating these sites, a key concern will be the hazard to personnel involved in cleanup work and to the general population. This paper focuses on what we have learned from pathway analysis and risk assessment about providing a combined estimate of risk from exposure to both chemicals and radionuclides. Quantitative radiation risk assessment involves a high degree of uncertainty. Chemical risk assessment generally does not provide quantitative results. Thus, it is not currently possible to develop a useful, quantitative combined risk assessment for mixed-waste sites

  17. The risk evaluation of a model of a high-level waste solidification plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bruecher, H.

    1977-02-01

    In this report the risk associated with the operation of a plant for vitrification of high-level liquid waste is evaluated. Considerung risk assessment it turns out that the important accidents occur during off-gas cleaning. On the other hand effects of explosions in the process equipment don't contribute very much to the overall risk. These data are compared with the risk resulting from routine discharge of the plant. It is of the same magnitude as or greater than the most important accident risks. (orig.) [de

  18. Occupational risk and toxicology evaluations of industrial water conditioning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broussard, G; Bramanti, O; Marchese, F M

    1997-08-01

    This study addresses the chemical and toxicological questions due to the wide use of chemical treatment programmes for industrial cooling water. First, natural problems encountered in cooling tower systems were presented and grouped into three categories: (i) scaling; (ii) corrosion and (iii) biofouling. Chemical solutions adopted in industrial plants were outlined for each one in order to minimize damage and categorized as shut-down, production loss, heat transfer reduction, upsets, etc. Above all, the purpose of the work was to identify the most dangerous chemicals normally used, which means sources of chemical risk for safety workers and their environment; thus, symptoms of exposure, prevention measures and protection tools are also described.

  19. Evaluation of Cases with Rabies Risk Presenting to Emergency Department

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fevzi Yilmaz

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Aim: All around the world 10-12 million people/year receive rabies prophylaxis. Rabies is an acute fatal central nervous system viral enfection. The virus can infect all warm-blooded animals and almost in all cases the enfection results with fatal encephalitis. The aim of this study is to determine the demographic characteristics of cases with rabies risk exposures and behind this to emphasise the significance of cooperation between the institutions to perform effective and accurate treatment. Material and Method: This study was performed with retrospective analysis of 1429 cases who attended to Emergency Department of Diyarbakir Goverment Hospital between January 2007-2010 for animal bites and exposures with the risk of rabies. Statistical analysis of data was performed SPSS V16 pocket programme. Data were defined as frequency and %. For statistical analysis Chi-Square and Fischer exact test was used. A value of P<0.05 was accepted statistically significant. Results: A total of 1055 (73.8% were male, 374 (26.2% were female and the mean age was 21.75 ± 16.9 (6 months-87 years. The major group in children was 6-11 years old and 651 (% 45.5 of the cases attended to hospital were under 18 years old. The vast majority (39.3% in adults were between 19-49 years. In our study 808 (56.5% of the cases  were bitten, 597 (41.8% of the cases  were scrabbled by the animal and 24 (1.7%of them  had indirect contact with the animal Both of them were taken into prophylactic vaccination programme (p<0.05. The vast majority of animal bites were dog (67%  and cat (28%. 3 doses of Human diploid cell vaccine-HDCV were administered to 1001 (70% of the patients and 5 doses to 428 (30% of patients. Human rabies immune globulin-HRIG were administered to 475 (33,3% of the patients in addition to vaccine. Discussion:  In our region rabies risk exposure is an important public health problem. Public oriented education should be given about attending to health care

  20. Development of a relative risk model for evaluating ecological risk of water environment in the Haihe River Basin estuary area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Qiuying; Liu, Jingling; Ho, Kin Chung; Yang, Zhifeng

    2012-03-15

    Ecological risk assessment for water environment is significant to water resource management of basin. Effective environmental management and systems restoration such as the Haihe River Basin require holistic understanding of the relative importance of various stressor-related impacts throughout the basin. As an effective technical tool for evaluating the ecological risk, relative risk model (RRM) was applied in regional scale successfully. In this study, the risk transfer from upstream of basin was considered and the RRM was developed through introducing the source-stressor-habitat exposure filter (SSH), the endpoint-habitat exposure filter (EH) and the stressor-endpoint effect filter (SE) to reflect the meaning of exposure and effect more explicit. Water environment which includes water quality, water quantity and aquatic ecosystems was selected as the assessment endpoints. We created a conceptual model which depicting potential and effect pathways from source to stressor to habitat to endpoint. The Haihe River Basin estuary (HRBE) was selected as the model case. The results showed that there were two low risk regions, one medium risk region and two high risk regions in the HRBE. The results also indicated that urbanization was the biggest source, the second was shipping and the third was industry, their risk scores are 5.65, 4.71 and 3.68 respectively. Furthermore, habitat destruction was the largest stressor with the risk scores (2.66), the second was oxygen consuming organic pollutants (1.75) and the third was pathogens (1.75). So these three stressors were the main influencing factors of the ecological pressure in the study area. For habitats, open waters (9.59) and intertidal mudflat were enduring the bigger pressure and should be taken considerable attention. Ecological service values damaged (30.54) and biodiversity decreased were facing the biggest risk pressure. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Evaluation of Total Cardiovascular Risk in Patients with Hypertension and Impaired Glucose Tolerance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I.V. Cherniavska

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Aim. Timely reveal of the patients at high risk of cardiovascular diseases for whom earlier intervention for cardiovascular risk correction is the most effective. Materials and methods. Seventy patients aged 30–55 years old with stage 2 hypertension, impaired glucose tolerance (IGT and high cardiovascular risk were examined according to Framingham criteria. Cardiovascular risk was compared by SCORE and PROCAM results. Results. Percentage ratio of males with high cardiovascular risk was higher by 52.3 % in comparison to females by SCORE and by 2.3 % in comparison to females by PROCAM. Males did not present any significant discrepancy by evaluation of cardiovascular risk by both scores unlike females. Obtained results showed that total cardiovascular risk in females was twofold higher by PROCAM compared to SCORE scale. Conclusions. Total cardiovascular risk level in patients with stage 2 hypertension and IGT is influenced by age, systolic blood pressure level, smoking, lipid storage disease and carbohydrate metabolism disorder. When we evaluate total cardiovascular risk, we should not be limited only by determination of factors determined in SCORE. It is reasonable to evaluate risk factors by PROCAM, too, especially for females.

  2. Nutritional risk and anthropometric evaluation in pediatric liver transplantation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zamberlan, Patrícia; Leone, Cláudio; Tannuri, Uenis; Carvalho, Werther Brunow de; Delgado, Artur Figueiredo

    2012-12-01

    To analyze the nutritional status of pediatric patients after orthotopic liver transplantation and the relationship with short-term clinical outcome. Anthropometric evaluations of 60 children and adolescents after orthotopic liver transplantation, during the first 24 hours in a tertiary pediatric intensive care unit. Nutritional status was determined from the Z score for the following indices: weight/age height/age or length/age, weight/height or weight/length, body mass index/age, arm circumference/age and triceps skinfold/age. The severity of liver disease was evaluated using one of the two models which was adequated to the patients' age: 1. Pediatric End-stage Liver Disease, 2. Model for End-Stage Liver Disease. We found 50.0% undernutrition by height/age; 27.3% by weight/age; 11.1% by weight/height or weight/ length; 10.0% by body mass index/age; 61.6% by arm circumference/age and 51.0% by triceps skinfold/age. There was no correlation between nutritional status and Pediatric End-stage Liver Disease or mortality. We found a negative correlation between arm circumference/age and length of hospitalization. Children with chronic liver diseases experience a significant degree of undernutrition, which makes nutritional support an important aspect of therapy. Despite the difficulties in assessment, anthropometric evaluation of the upper limbs is useful to evaluate nutritional status of children before or after liver transplantation.

  3. Identification and evaluation of priorities in the business process of a risk or safety organization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Teng, Kuei-Yung; Thekdi, Shital A.; Lambert, James H.

    2012-01-01

    Agencies are increasingly following principles and guidelines for the coordination of risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication in large-scale programs. In particular, there is a challenge to comply with the U.S. Office of Management and Budget (OMB) memorandum “Updated Principles for Risk Analysis” among other guidelines. This paper demonstrates a systemic approach to achieve compliance of a risk program with administrative and organizational principles and guidelines for risk analysis. The paper suggests three canonical questions as the mission of such a program: (i) what sources of risks are to be managed by the program, (ii) how should multiple risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication activities be administered and coordinated, and what should be the basis for resource allocation to these activities, and (iii) how will the performance of the program be monitored and evaluated. The paper demonstrates a re-prioritization of policy initiatives of the program based on emergent and future conditions. The approach is useful to agencies implementing risk or safety organizational guidelines such as those of the OMB, the US Government Accountability Office, the US Department of Homeland Security, the US Department of Defense, and others. This paper will be of interest to risk managers; agencies; and risk and safety analysts engaged in the conception, implementation, and evaluation of risk or safety programs. - Highlights: ► We develop a systemic approach for management of a risk or safety program. ► The approach includes business process models and policy prioritization. ► The results support organizations to implement risk and safety programs.

  4. A Soft Intelligent Risk Evaluation Model for Credit Scoring Classification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehdi Khashei

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Risk management is one of the most important branches of business and finance. Classification models are the most popular and widely used analytical group of data mining approaches that can greatly help financial decision makers and managers to tackle credit risk problems. However, the literature clearly indicates that, despite proposing numerous classification models, credit scoring is often a difficult task. On the other hand, there is no universal credit-scoring model in the literature that can be accurately and explanatorily used in all circumstances. Therefore, the research for improving the efficiency of credit-scoring models has never stopped. In this paper, a hybrid soft intelligent classification model is proposed for credit-scoring problems. In the proposed model, the unique advantages of the soft computing techniques are used in order to modify the performance of the traditional artificial neural networks in credit scoring. Empirical results of Australian credit card data classifications indicate that the proposed hybrid model outperforms its components, and also other classification models presented for credit scoring. Therefore, the proposed model can be considered as an appropriate alternative tool for binary decision making in business and finance, especially in high uncertainty conditions.

  5. Dosimetric effects of edema in permanent prostate seed implants: a rigorous solution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen Zhe; Yue Ning; Wang Xiaohong; Roberts, Kenneth B.; Peschel, Richard; Nath, Ravinder

    2000-01-01

    Purpose: To derive a rigorous analytic solution to the dosimetric effects of prostate edema so that its impact on the conventional pre-implant and post-implant dosimetry can be studied for any given radioactive isotope and edema characteristics. Methods and Materials: The edema characteristics observed by Waterman et al (Int. J. Rad. Onc. Biol. Phys, 41:1069-1077; 1998) was used to model the time evolution of the prostate and the seed locations. The total dose to any part of prostate tissue from a seed implant was calculated analytically by parameterizing the dose fall-off from a radioactive seed as a single inverse power function of distance, with proper account of the edema-induced time evolution. The dosimetric impact of prostate edema was determined by comparing the dose calculated with full consideration of prostate edema to that calculated with the conventional dosimetry approach where the seed locations and the target volume are assumed to be stationary. Results: A rigorous analytic solution on the relative dosimetric effects of prostate edema was obtained. This solution proved explicitly that the relative dosimetric effects of edema, as found in the previous numerical studies by Yue et. al. (Int. J. Radiat. Oncol. Biol. Phys. 43, 447-454, 1999), are independent of the size and the shape of the implant target volume and are independent of the number and the locations of the seeds implanted. It also showed that the magnitude of relative dosimetric effects is independent of the location of dose evaluation point within the edematous target volume. It implies that the relative dosimetric effects of prostate edema are universal with respect to a given isotope and edema characteristic. A set of master tables for the relative dosimetric effects of edema were obtained for a wide range of edema characteristics for both 125 I and 103 Pd prostate seed implants. Conclusions: A rigorous analytic solution of the relative dosimetric effects of prostate edema has been

  6. Perception and evaluation of risks. Findings of the 'Baden-Wuerttemberg Risk Survey 2001'

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zwick, M.M.; Renn, O. (eds.)

    2002-05-01

    Since most of the empirical work on risk perception has been conducted in the 1970s and few studies are available that claim to span the full range of psychological, sociological and cultural variables, the Center of Technology Assessment in Stuttgart (Germany) has conducted a representative survey in the German State of Baden-Wuerttemberg on risk perception in the general population. In addition, a qualitative investigation based on a sample of 62 respondents was launched in 2001. The objective of the study was to determine the relative importance of psychometric, stigma-related, social value-related, trust-related and cultural variables in explaining risk perception and acceptance. The following report summarizes the results of these investigations. (orig.)

  7. Evaluation model for safety capacity of chemical industrial park based on acceptable regional risk

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Guohua Chen; Shukun Wang; Xiaoqun Tan

    2015-01-01

    The paper defines the Safety Capacity of Chemical Industrial Park (SCCIP) from the perspective of acceptable regional risk. For the purpose of exploring the evaluation model for the SCCIP, a method based on quantitative risk assessment was adopted for evaluating transport risk and to confirm reasonable safety transport capacity of chemical industrial park, and then by combining with the safety storage capacity, a SCCIP evaluation model was put forward. The SCCIP was decided by the smaller one between the largest safety storage capacity and the maximum safety transport capacity, or else, the regional risk of the park will exceed the acceptable level. The developed method was applied to a chemical industrial park in Guangdong province to obtain the maximum safety transport capacity and the SCCIP. The results can be realized in the regional risk control of the park effectively.

  8. Evaluation of risk prioritization and budget allocation methods for pollution prevention activities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Daniels, J.; Jones, E.; Lmont, A.; Ladmn, T.; Watz, J.

    1997-01-01

    This study reviews the structure of two main risk prioritization budget allocation methods developed by the DOE Risk-Based Priority Mode (RPM) and Management Evaluation Matrix (MEM). It identifies potential augmentations to the process that will address both risk reduction and cost-effective investments of finite resources for future Environmental Management activities. The evaluation was performed in accordance with the EM ten-year vision and principles for site cleanup. The evaluation and recommendations in this report strive to reflect four key principles, namely to eliminate the most urgent risks, reduce mortgage and support costs to make funds available for further risk reduction, protect worker health and safety, and reduce the generation of wastes

  9. A Hybrid Approach for Evaluating Faulty Behavior Risk of High-Risk Operations Using ANP and Evidence Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xia-Zhong Zheng

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Hydropower project construction is a high-risk operation, where accidents occur frequently. Moreover, the factors leading to accidents are often human factors, so safety evaluation of these factors for the hydropower projects’ work system is very significant. The Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS framework is applied to build evaluation system. In the evaluation process, correlation analysis is used to form the intercriteria analysis matrix that helps the decision makers to build impact relation matrix. Factor weights are calculated by the Analytic Network Process (ANP. In the index value determination step, the evidence theory is used to eliminate the conflicts of three decision makers and the index values are then calculated. The faulty behavior risk (FBR assessment value is finally obtained. The proposed method is practical and its applicability is proved by an example.

  10. A risk-based evaluation of LMFBR containment response under core disruptive accident conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hartung, J.; Berk, S.

    1978-01-01

    Probabilistic risk methodology is utilized to evaluate the failure modes and effects of LMFBR containment systems under Core Disruptive Accident (CDA) conditions. First, the potential causes of LMFBR containment failure under CDA conditions are discussed and categorized. Then, a simple scoping-type risk assessment of a reference design is presented to help place these potential causes of failure in perspective. The highest risk containment failure modes are identified for the reference design, and several design and research and development options which appear capable of reducing these risks are discussed. The degree to which large LMFBR containment systems must mitigate the consequences of CDA's to achieve a level of risk (for LMFBR's) comparable to the already very low risk of contemporary LWR's is explored. Based on the results of this evaluation, several suggestions are offered concerning CDA-related design goals and research and development priorities for large LMFBR's. (author)

  11. Risk evaluation and control strategies for indoor radon: a brief discussion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nero, A.V. Jr.

    1994-01-01

    Average risks of death estimated for radon are larger than those for many exposures in the outdoor environment, but similar to some in industrial settings. However, the indoor environment differs in regard to cost, benefit, responsibility, and distribution of risks from the outdoor and occupational settings, where frameworks for setting risk-limiting objectives and strategies have already been developed substantially. This indicates the need to develop a conceptual framework for evaluating risks in the indoor environment, within which the objectives of radon control strategies can be sensibly chosen. Nevertheless, the range of estimated radon risks and of recent radon control strategies suggest near-term elements of any strategy, i.e. accurate and effective public information, as well as reliable monitoring and control capabilities, and a focus on areas where most high residential levels occur. Developing a conceptual framework for evaluating indoor risks will permit the formulation of suitable aims on average indoor exposures and lower exposure situations. (author)

  12. SCOPE of Pain: An Evaluation of an Opioid Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy Continuing Education Program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alford, Daniel P; Zisblatt, Lara; Ng, Pamela; Hayes, Sean M; Peloquin, Sophie; Hardesty, Ilana; White, Julie L

    2016-01-01

    Due to the high prevalence of prescription opioid misuse, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) mandated a Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS) requiring manufacturers of extended-release/long-acting (ER/LA) opioid analgesics to fund continuing education based on a FDA Blueprint. This article describes the Safe and Competent Opioid Prescribing Education (SCOPE of Pain) program, an ER/LA opioid analgesic REMS program, and its impact on clinician knowledge, confidence, attitudes, and self-reported clinical practice. Participants of the 3-h SCOPE of Pain training completed pre-, immediate post- and 2-month post-assessments. The primary target group (n = 2,850), and a subset (n = 476) who completed a 2-month post-assessment, consisted of clinicians licensed to prescribe ER/LA opioid analgesics, who care for patients with chronic pain and who completed the 3-h training between February 28, 2013 and June 13, 2014. Immediately post-program, there was a significant increase in correct responses to knowledge questions (60% to 84%, P ≤ 0.02) and 87% of participants planned to make practice changes. At 2-months post-program, there continued to be a significant increase in correct responses to knowledge questions (60% to 69%, P ≤ 0.03) and 67% reported increased confidence in applying safe opioid prescribing care and 86% reported implementing practice changes. There was also an improvement in alignment of desired attitudes toward safe opioid prescribing. The SCOPE of Pain program improved knowledge, attitudes, confidence, and self-reported clinical practice in safe opioid prescribing. This national REMS program holds potential to improve the safe use of opioids for the treatment of chronic pain. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Academy of Pain Medicine. 2016. This work is written by US Government employees and is in the public domain in the US.

  13. Project finance risk evaluation of the Electric power industry of Serbia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Makajic Nikolic, Dragana; Jednak, Sandra; Benkovic, Sladana; Poznanic, Vladimir

    2011-01-01

    From the aspect of the development of a country, the energy sector represents a domain of strategic interest. Generation and use of energy resources most often belongs to the public sector, and are most often under the influence of the government in most countries. This paper analyzes the risks that are characteristic to the business of the public enterprise, Electric Power Industry of Serbia (EPS). EPS has started its restructuring and is adjusting to changes and challenges imposed by the launched reforms in the energy sector. However, due to certain limitations, it is still not possible to implement its complete restructuring and modernization. The paper aims to point at the risks a potential strategic partner faces. The risks have been identified as commercial, financial and political, classification immanent for project finance, and their evaluation was done using Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA). Risk analysis was performed based on current conditions for two potential scenarios that predict different types of changes in the analyzed period. The results of the analysis show that the potential strategic partner should pay special attention to price risks, estimation, investments, project activity neglect, quasi-risks and debt collection. - Highlights: → Paper analyze all risks characteristic for business running of the public enterprise EPS. → Potential strategic partner faces with the commercial, financial and political risks. → Risk analysis was done using FMEA. → Results are indicating high risk of investing in EPS. → The highest risks are commercial risks, especially price risks.

  14. Emerging technologies in healthcare: navigating risks, evaluating rewards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGrady, Elizabeth; Conger, Sue; Blanke, Sandra; Landry, Brett J L

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of this prescriptive research is to help decision makers become better informed about three technologies emerging in the healthcare arena by providing a basic description of the technology and describing their current applications, future healthcare deployment, potential risks, and related managerial issues. Two of the technologies, radio frequency identification (RFID) and global positioning systems (GPS), are currently available to healthcare organizations and appear capable of decreasing cost but may require significant initial investment and have disruptive potential. The third technology, nanotechnology, has limited current use but may revolutionize both the delivery of medicine and hospital infrastructure management. With cautious attention to managerial issues and meticulous attention to implementation details, healthcare organizations that can successfully navigate the coming technologically driven paradigm shifts will emerge more resilient organizations.

  15. Benzene - exposure and risk evaluation; Benzol - Exposition und Risikoabschaetzung

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eikmann, T. [Giessen Univ. (Germany). Hygiene-Institut und Umweltmedizin; Eikmann, S. [Gesellschaft fuer Umwelttoxikologie und Krankenhaushygiene mbH, Wetzlar (Germany); Goeen, T. [Technische Hochschule Aachen (Germany). Inst. fuer Hygiene und Arbeitsmedizin

    2000-07-01

    Benzene is one of the most important environmental carcinogens. Because of its potential to induce leukemia, benzene is noted as carcinogeneous hazardous substance in legal guidelines for occupational use and environmental contact. Epidemiological studies resulted to unit-risk values between 2.8 x 10{sup -6} to 30 x 10{sup -6} for lifelong exposure to 1 {mu}g/m{sup 3} benzene. In Germany, the average unit-risk was estimated to be 9 x 10{sup -6}. The general population is mainly exposed to benzene due to the emissions of motor vehicles. The average annual air concentration of benzene at main roads and in industrial areas are 5 to 30 {mu}g/m{sup 3}. Due to seasonal influences and special exposure situations distinctly higher peak concentrations are occurring. Regional differences, i.e. between rural and urban immission levels and between the concentration in air of the northern and southern part of Europe, are also recognizable. The life-style factor smoking increases the individual exposure distinctly, whereas contamination of the diet contribute little to the total uptake of benzene. The internal exposure of the general population varies due to living area, smoking habits and mobility. Individuals living in no-smoking buildings show benzene concentrations in blood of 15 to 170 ng/l, whereas the benzene level of persons with additional exposures (smoking, frequently use of motor vehicles, etc.) can reach approximately 1000 ng/l blood. Comparable conclusions result from data for the urinary levels of two sensitive metabolites of benzene: trans-, trans-muconic acid and S-phenylmercapturic acid. (orig.) [German] Benzol stellt aufgrund seines ubiquitaeren Auftretens und seiner Leukaemie verursachenden Wirkung eines der bedeutendsten Umweltkanzerogene dar. Es ist als krebserzeugender Gefahrstoff (Gefahrstoffverordnung: Gruppe II) und als eindeutig krebserzeugender Arbeitsstoff (Kategorie 1) ausgewiesen. Aus epidemiologischen Studien ergaben sich Unit-Risk

  16. Simulation analysis for integrated evaluation of technical and commercial risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gutleber, D.S.; Heiberger, E.M.; Morris, T.D.

    1995-01-01

    Decisions to invest in oil- and gasfield acquisitions or participating interests often are based on the perceived ability to enhance the economic value of the underlying asset. A multidisciplinary approach integrating reservoir engineering, operations and drilling, and deal structuring with Monte Carlo simulation modeling can overcome weaknesses of deterministic analysis and significantly enhance investment decisions. This paper discusses the use of spreadsheets and Monte Carlo simulation to generate probabilistic outcomes for key technical and economic parameters for ultimate identification of the economic volatility and value of potential deal concepts for a significant opportunity. The approach differs from a simple risk analysis for an individual well by incorporating detailed, full-field simulations that vary the reservoir parameters, capital and operating cost assumptions, and schedules on timing in the framework of various deal structures

  17. Using Multi-criteria Evaluation and GIS for Flood Risk Analysis in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Using Multi-criteria Evaluation and GIS for Flood Risk Analysis in Informal ... Using a case study of an informal settlement in Cape Town, this study ... The shack outlines of the informal settlement were digitized using CTCC aerial imagery.

  18. Comparative evaluation by lifecycle and risk assessment of agrobiological and technological routes of production

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Moll, H.C.; Schoot Uiterkamp, A.J.M.

    The application of lifecycle and risk assessment methodologies for environmental assessment of agricultural products is growing and produces interesting results. This allows comparisons between agricultural and technological routes of production. An evaluation of such assessments provides increased

  19. L-045: EPR-First Responders: Evaluation of the risk and establishment of inner cordoned area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2011-01-01

    This conference is about the risk evaluation knowledge by the first responders in a radiological emergency. They have to establish the inner cordoned area , identify dangerous symbols , devices, packages, radioactive source, material and equipment used

  20. Interpretation and evaluation of the US Environmental Protection Agency ecological risk assessment guidelines

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Murray, K

    1999-10-01

    Full Text Available In order to facilitate a common understanding, on-going debate and increasing application of ecological risk assessment (ERA) in South Africa, the ERA process of the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has been summarised and evaluated...

  1. Dynamic evaluation of seismic hazard and risks based on the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kossobokov, V. G.; Nekrasova, A.

    2016-12-01

    We continue applying the general concept of seismic risk analysis in a number of seismic regions worldwide by constructing seismic hazard maps based on the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes (USLE), i.e. log N(M,L) = A + B•(6 - M) + C•log L, where N(M,L) is the expected annual number of earthquakes of a certain magnitude M within an seismically prone area of linear dimension L, A characterizes the average annual rate of strong (M = 6) earthquakes, B determines the balance between magnitude ranges, and C estimates the fractal dimension of seismic locus in projection to the Earth surface. The parameters A, B, and C of USLE are used to assess, first, the expected maximum magnitude in a time interval at a seismically prone cell of a uniform grid that cover the region of interest, and then the corresponding expected ground shaking parameters. After a rigorous testing against the available seismic evidences in the past (e.g., the historically reported macro-seismic intensity or paleo data), such a seismic hazard map is used to generate maps of specific earthquake risks for population, cities, and infrastructures. The hazard maps for a given territory change dramatically, when the methodology is applied to a certain size moving time window, e.g. about a decade long for an intermediate-term regional assessment or exponentially increasing intervals for a daily local strong aftershock forecasting. The of dynamical seismic hazard and risks assessment is illustrated by applications to the territory of Greater Caucasus and Crimea and the two-year series of aftershocks of the 11 October 2008 Kurchaloy, Chechnya earthquake which case-history appears to be encouraging for further systematic testing as potential short-term forecasting tool.

  2. A critical evaluation of risk-return characteristics of environmentally focused stock’s companies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stanislav Škapa

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The objective of the paper is to critically evaluate and determine risk-return profile environmentally focused stock’s companies which are covered by STOXX Global ESG Environmental Leaders Index and whether this index should be taken in as an independent asset class of investments portfolio for its risk-return improvement. This paper gives an empirical view on the ex-post asset classes characteristics focused mainly on risk side of investment.

  3. Evaluation of risk scores for risk stratification of acute coronary syndromes in the Myocardial Infarction National Audit Project (MINAP) database.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gale, C P; Manda, S O M; Weston, C F; Birkhead, J S; Batin, P D; Hall, A S

    2009-03-01

    To compare the discriminative performance of the PURSUIT, GUSTO-1, GRACE, SRI and EMMACE risk models, assess their performance among risk supergroups and evaluate the EMMACE risk model over the wider spectrum of acute coronary syndrome (ACS). Observational study of a national registry. All acute hospitals in England and Wales. 100 686 cases of ACS between 2003 and 2005. Model performance (C-index) in predicting the likelihood of death over the time period for which they were designed. The C-index, or area under the receiver-operating curve, range 0-1, is a measure of the discriminative performance of a model. The C-indexes were: PURSUIT C-index 0.79 (95% confidence interval 0.78 to 0.80); GUSTO-1 0.80 (0.79 to 0.81); GRACE in-hospital 0.80 (0.80 to 0.81); GRACE 6-month 0.80 (0.79 to 0.80); SRI 0.79 (0.78 to 0.80); and EMMACE 0.78 (0.77 to 0.78). EMMACE maintained its ability to discriminate 30-day mortality throughout different ACS diagnoses. Recalibration of the model offered no notable improvement in performance over the original risk equation. For all models the discriminative performance was reduced in patients with diabetes, chronic renal failure or angina. The five ACS risk models maintained their discriminative performance in a large unselected English and Welsh ACS population, but performed less well in higher-risk supergroups. Simpler risk models had comparable performance to more complex risk models. The EMMACE risk score performed well across the wider spectrum of ACS diagnoses.

  4. Evaluation of severe accident risks and the potential for risk reduction: Grand Gulf, Unit 1. Draft for comment, February 1987

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Amos, C N [Technadyne Engineering Consultants, Inc., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Benjamin, A S; Kunsman, D M; Williams, D C [Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM (United States); Boyd, G J; Lewis, S R [Safety and Reliability Optimization Services, Inc., Knoxville, TN (United States); Smith, L N [Science Applications International Corporation, Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    1987-04-01

    The Severe Accident Risk Reduction Program (SARRP) has completed a rebaselining of the risks to the public from a boiling water reactor with a Mark III containment (Grand Gulf, Unit 1). Emphasis was placed on determining the magnitude and character of the uncertainties, rather than focusing on a point estimate. The risk-reduction potential of a set of proposed safety option backfits was also studied, and their costs and benefits were also evaluated. It was found that the risks from internal events are generally low relative to previous studies; for example, most of the uncertainty range is lower than the point estimate of risk for the Peach Bottom plant in the Reactor Safety Study (RSS). However, certain unresolved issues cause the top of the uncertainty band to appear at a level that is comparable with the RSS point estimate. These issues include the diesel generator failure rate, iodine and cesium revolatilization after vessel breach and the possibility of reactor vessel pedestal failure caused by core debris attack. Some of the postulated safety options appear to be potentially cost effective for the Grand Gulf power plant, particularly when onsite accidents costs are included in the evaluation of benefits. Principally these include procedural modifications and relatively inexpensive hardware additions to insure core cooling in the event of a station blackout. This work supports the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's assessment of severe accidents in NUREG-1150. (author)

  5. EVALUATION OF RISKS AND WASTE CHARACTERIZATION REQUIREMENTS FOR THE TRANSURANIC WASTE EMPLACED IN WIPP DURING 1999

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Channell, J.K.; Walker, B.A.

    2000-01-01

    Specifically this report: 1. Compares requirements of the WAP that are pertinent from a technical viewpoint with the WIPP pre-Permit waste characterization program, 2. Presents the results of a risk analysis of the currently emplaced wastes. Expected and bounding risks from routine operations and possible accidents are evaluated; and 3. Provides conclusions and recommendations

  6. Development and evaluation of a risk communication curriculum for medical students

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Han, P.K.; Joekes, K.; Elwyn, G.; Mazor, K.M.; Thomson, R.; Sedgwick, P.; Ibison, J.; Wong, J.B.

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To develop, pilot, and evaluate a curriculum for teaching clinical risk communication skills to medical students. METHODS: A new experience-based curriculum, "Risk Talk," was developed and piloted over a 1-year period among students at Tufts University School of Medicine. An experimental

  7. Development of risk matrices for evaluating climatic change responses of forested habitats

    Science.gov (United States)

    Louis R. Iverson; Stephen N. Matthews; Anantha M. Prasad; Matthew P. Peters; Gary. Yohe

    2012-01-01

    We present an approach to assess and compare risk from climate change among multiple species through a risk matrix, in which managers can quickly prioritize for species that need to have strategies developed, evaluated further, or watched. We base the matrix upon earlier work towards the National Climate Assessment for potential damage to infrastructures from climate...

  8. 76 FR 57767 - Proposed Generic Communication; Draft NRC Generic Letter 2011-XX: Seismic Risk Evaluations for...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-09-16

    ... NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION [NRC-2011-0204] Proposed Generic Communication; Draft NRC Generic Letter 2011-XX: Seismic Risk Evaluations for Operating Reactors AGENCY: Nuclear Regulatory Commission... FR 54507), that requested public comment on Draft NRC Generic Letter 2011- XX: Seismic Risk...

  9. Rigor mortis development at elevated temperatures induces pale exudative turkey meat characteristics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKee, S R; Sams, A R

    1998-01-01

    Development of rigor mortis at elevated post-mortem temperatures may contribute to turkey meat characteristics that are similar to those found in pale, soft, exudative pork. To evaluate this effect, 36 Nicholas tom turkeys were processed at 19 wk of age and placed in water at 40, 20, and 0 C immediately after evisceration. Pectoralis muscle samples were taken at 15 min, 30 min, 1 h, 2 h, and 4 h post-mortem and analyzed for R-value (an indirect measure of adenosine triphosphate), glycogen, pH, color, and sarcomere length. At 4 h, the remaining intact Pectoralis muscle was harvested, and aged on ice 23 h, and analyzed for drip loss, cook loss, shear values, and sarcomere length. By 15 min post-mortem, the 40 C treatment had higher R-values, which persisted through 4 h. By 1 h, the 40 C treatment pH and glycogen levels were lower than the 0 C treatment; however, they did not differ from those of the 20 C treatment. Increased L* values indicated that color became more pale by 2 h post-mortem in the 40 C treatment when compared to the 20 and 0 C treatments. Drip loss, cook loss, and shear value were increased whereas sarcomere lengths were decreased as a result of the 40 C treatment. These findings suggested that elevated post-mortem temperatures during processing resulted in acceleration of rigor mortis and biochemical changes in the muscle that produced pale, exudative meat characteristics in turkey.

  10. Risk Analysis Based on AHP and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation for Maglev Train Bogie

    OpenAIRE

    Fan, Chengxin; Dou, Fengshan; Tong, Baiming; Long, Zhiqiang

    2016-01-01

    The maglev bogie is the key subsystem for maglev train security. To ensure life and property security, it is essential to evaluate its risk level before its operation. In this paper, a combinational method of analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is proposed to assess hazards in a complex maglev bogie system associated with multiple subsystems’ failures. The very comprehensive identification of risk sources has been done by analyzing the structure of maglev bogie. Furt...

  11. Assaying the effect of levodopa on the evaluation of risk in healthy humans.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mkael Symmonds

    Full Text Available In humans, dopamine is implicated in reward and risk-based decision-making. However, the specific effects of dopamine augmentation on risk evaluation are unclear. Here we sought to measure the effect of 100 mg oral levodopa, which enhances synaptic release of dopamine, on choice behaviour in healthy humans. We use a paradigm without feedback or learning, which solely isolates effects on risk evaluation. We present two studies (n = 20; n = 20 employing a randomised, placebo-controlled, within-subjects design. We manipulated different dimensions of risk in a controlled economic paradigm. We test effects on risk-reward tradeoffs, assaying both aversion to variance (the spread of possible outcomes and preference for relative losses and gains (asymmetry of outcomes--skewness, dissociating this from potential non-specific effects on choice randomness using behavioural modelling. There were no systematic effects of levodopa on risk attitudes, either for variance or skewness. However, there was a drift towards more risk-averse behaviour over time, indicating that this paradigm was sensitive to detect changes in risk-preferences. These findings suggest that levodopa administration does not change the evaluation of risk. One possible reason is that dopaminergic influences on decision making may be due to changing the response to reward feedback.

  12. Evaluation of Van Lake (Turkey) about radiological and hydrogeological risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Akyil, S.; Aytas, S.; Yusan, S.; Aslani, M. A. A.; Aycan, H. A.; Eral, M.; Tuerkoezue, D. A.; Isik, M. A.; Oelgen, M. K.

    2009-01-01

    Basins which are grow in the continent and not discharge to open sea are named as a close basin. Lead, uranium and thorium are high levels in respect to open basins. Lake of Van is a close basin. In the lake basins, rivers which are discharge basin are the most important source of the heavy metal concentration. In this study, surface water, coast and deep sediments of Van Lake and Inci Kefal (fish) were analyzed as a radiological and evaluated in terms of hydrogeological. Data was obtained for natural radioactivity concentration of this lake and evaluated using geostatistical methods in a geographical information system environment and fitted for isoradioactivity contour maps. The concentration and distribution of natural radionuclides in Van Lake were investigated with the aim of evaluating the environmental radioactivity. Sixty three coastal and deep sediments, 228 lake surface waters and 12 fish samples were taken in Van Lake over the time period 2005-2008 and the distribution pattern of the measured radionuclides was presented. The mean concentrations of gross alpha and beta, eU, eTh and K-40 activities in sediments were 207±96, 1046±60, 207±96, 70±29 and 399±231 Bq/kg, respectively. On the other hand, water samples from Van Lake had mean concentrations of 0.74±0.46 Bq/L for gross alpha activity concentration, 0.02±0.01 Bq/L for gross beta activity concentration, 0.06±0.04 Bq/L for gross radium isotopes, respectively. The mean gross alpha and beta, eU, eTh and K-40 activities in fish samples were 47±18, 470±12, 0.57±0.22, 0.022±0.006, 319±11 Bq/kg, respectively. An average annual effective dose equivalent (mSv/y) was calculated.

  13. The Researchers' View of Scientific Rigor-Survey on the Conduct and Reporting of In Vivo Research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reichlin, Thomas S; Vogt, Lucile; Würbel, Hanno

    2016-01-01

    Reproducibility in animal research is alarmingly low, and a lack of scientific rigor has been proposed as a major cause. Systematic reviews found low reporting rates of measures against risks of bias (e.g., randomization, blinding), and a correlation between low reporting rates and overstated treatment effects. Reporting rates of measures against bias are thus used as a proxy measure for scientific rigor, and reporting guidelines (e.g., ARRIVE) have become a major weapon in the fight against risks of bias in animal research. Surprisingly, animal scientists have never been asked about their use of measures against risks of bias and how they report these in publications. Whether poor reporting reflects poor use of such measures, and whether reporting guidelines may effectively reduce risks of bias has therefore remained elusive. To address these questions, we asked in vivo researchers about their use and reporting of measures against risks of bias and examined how self-reports relate to reporting rates obtained through systematic reviews. An online survey was sent out to all registered in vivo researchers in Switzerland (N = 1891) and was complemented by personal interviews with five representative in vivo researchers to facilitate interpretation of the survey results. Return rate was 28% (N = 530), of which 302 participants (16%) returned fully completed questionnaires that were used for further analysis. According to the researchers' self-report, they use measures against risks of bias to a much greater extent than suggested by reporting rates obtained through systematic reviews. However, the researchers' self-reports are likely biased to some extent. Thus, although they claimed to be reporting measures against risks of bias at much lower rates than they claimed to be using these measures, the self-reported reporting rates were considerably higher than reporting rates found by systematic reviews. Furthermore, participants performed rather poorly when asked to

  14. ATP, IMP, and glycogen in cod muscle at onset and during development of rigor mortis depend on the sampling location

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cappeln, Gertrud; Jessen, Flemming

    2002-01-01

    Variation in glycogen, ATP, and IMP contents within individual cod muscles were studied in ice stored fish during the progress of rigor mortis. Rigor index was determined before muscle samples for chemical analyzes were taken at 16 different positions on the fish. During development of rigor......, the contents of glycogen and ATP decreased differently in relation to rigor index depending on sampling location. Although fish were considered to be in strong rigor according to the rigor index method, parts of the muscle were not in rigor as high ATP concentrations were found in dorsal and tall muscle....

  15. Trends in Methodological Rigor in Intervention Research Published in School Psychology Journals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burns, Matthew K.; Klingbeil, David A.; Ysseldyke, James E.; Petersen-Brown, Shawna

    2012-01-01

    Methodological rigor in intervention research is important for documenting evidence-based practices and has been a recent focus in legislation, including the No Child Left Behind Act. The current study examined the methodological rigor of intervention research in four school psychology journals since the 1960s. Intervention research has increased…

  16. Rigorous bounds on the free energy of electron-phonon models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Raedt, Hans De; Michielsen, Kristel

    1997-01-01

    We present a collection of rigorous upper and lower bounds to the free energy of electron-phonon models with linear electron-phonon interaction. These bounds are used to compare different variational approaches. It is shown rigorously that the ground states corresponding to the sharpest bounds do

  17. The Relationship between Project-Based Learning and Rigor in STEM-Focused High Schools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edmunds, Julie; Arshavsky, Nina; Glennie, Elizabeth; Charles, Karen; Rice, Olivia

    2016-01-01

    Project-based learning (PjBL) is an approach often favored in STEM classrooms, yet some studies have shown that teachers struggle to implement it with academic rigor. This paper explores the relationship between PjBL and rigor in the classrooms of ten STEM-oriented high schools. Utilizing three different data sources reflecting three different…

  18. Moving beyond Data Transcription: Rigor as Issue in Representation of Digital Literacies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagood, Margaret Carmody; Skinner, Emily Neil

    2015-01-01

    Rigor in qualitative research has been based upon criteria of credibility, dependability, confirmability, and transferability. Drawing upon articles published during our editorship of the "Journal of Adolescent & Adult Literacy," we illustrate how the use of digital data in research study reporting may enhance these areas of rigor,…

  19. First Evaluation of a Contingency Management Intervention Addressing Adolescent Substance Use and Sexual Risk Behaviors: Risk Reduction Therapy for Adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Letourneau, Elizabeth J; McCart, Michael R; Sheidow, Ashli J; Mauro, Pia M

    2017-01-01

    There is a need for interventions that comprehensively address youth substance use disorders (SUD) and sexual risk behaviors. Risk Reduction Therapy for Adolescents (RRTA) adapts a validated family-focused intervention for youth SUD to include sexual risk reduction components in a single intervention. In this first evaluation of RRTA, drug court involved youth were randomly assigned to RRTA (N=45) or usual services (US; N=60) and followed through 12-months post-baseline. RRTA included weekly cognitive behavior therapy and behavior management training and contingency-contracting with a point earning system managed by caregivers targeting drug use and sexual risk antecedents. Longitudinal models estimated within-group change and between-group differences through 6- and 12-month follow-up on outcomes for substance use, sexual risk behaviors, and protective HIV behaviors. Robust effects of the intervention were not detected under conditions of the study that included potent background interventions by the juvenile drug court. Considerations about future development and testing of sexual risk reduction therapy for youth are discussed, including the potential role of contingency management in future interventions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Evaluation of influential factors on food risk perception

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shirai, Kosuke; Kurisu, Kiyo; Hanaki, Keisuke

    2015-01-01

    Influential factors on food risk perception were investigated from the viewpoints of socio-demographics, lifestyles and personalities. The anxieties about 24 types of food based on six product areas and four food types were investigated through the questionnaire survey getting 16,650 respondents in Japan. Besides, 60 questions were prepared to investigate the personalities based on 14 sub-scales. The anxiety was influenced mainly by the product areas instead of food types; the highest anxiety was observed for the foods from China, followed by those from developing countries (except for China), developed countries, and Fukushima. For personality, nine factors were extracted. The results of multiple regression analysis incorporating socio-demographic, lifestyle, and personality variables were not influenced by the food types but influenced by the product areas. The most influential variable on the anxiety for all product areas was 'habits to check product areas.' It was also indicated that 'general trust' and 'being strict in discipline' were most influential personalities on the anxiety about foods from Fukushima and foods from China, respectively. (author)

  1. LISTERIA MONOCYTOGENES RISK EVALUATION IN READY TO EAT DELI PRODUCTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T Civera

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Listeria monocytogenes has become one of the major concerns for food safety. Its ability to survive and replicate at low temperature, pH and high salt concentration, makes the bacterium a threat, mostly for RTE products. For these reasons, the present research was aimed at detecting the ability of growth of L. monocytogenes in RTE products retrieved from one deli store. Samples were analysed for L. monocytogenes detection, then inoculated with the pathogen (105cell/ml and stored at refrigeration temperature for the duration of their shelf-life (15-60 days. In all the products L. monocytogenes was not detected before experimental contamination. The challenge test evidenced that experimentally inoculated L. monocytogenes was not able to multiply for the duration of the entire shelf-life. These results indicated that the tested products could be considered as foods which are not able to support the growth of L. monocytogenes, as indicated by E.C. Regulation 2073/05. However, in order to guarantee consumer’s safety, it needs to be emphasized the need of a correct application of the GMPs, required for lowering the risk of initial contamination.

  2. Risk evaluation - conventional and low level effects of radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bond, V.P.; Varma, M.N.

    1984-04-01

    Any discussion of the risk of exposure to potentially-hazardous agents in the environment inevitably involves the question of whether the dose effect curve is of the threshold or linear, non-threshold type. A principal objective of this presentation is to show that the function is actually two separate relationships, each representing distinctly different functions with differing variables on the axes, and each characteristic of quite different functions with differing variables on the axes, and each characteristic of quite different disciplines (i.e., the threshold function, of Pharmacology, Toxicology and Medicine [PTM]; the linear, non-threshold function, of Public Health including safety and accident statistics [PHS]). It is shown that low-level exposure (LLE) to radiation falls clearly in the PHS category. A function for cell dose vs. the fraction of single cell quantal responses is characterized, which reflects the absolute and relative sensitivities of cells. Acceptance of this function would obviate any requirement for the use in Radiation Protection of the concepts of a standard radiation, Q, dose equivalent and rem. 9 references, 4 figures

  3. Onset of rigor mortis is earlier in red muscle than in white muscle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kobayashi, M; Takatori, T; Nakajima, M; Sakurada, K; Hatanaka, K; Ikegaya, H; Matsuda, Y; Iwase, H

    2000-01-01

    Rigor mortis is thought to be related to falling ATP levels in muscles postmortem. We measured rigor mortis as tension determined isometrically in three rat leg muscles in liquid paraffin kept at 37 degrees C or 25 degrees C--two red muscles, red gastrocnemius (RG) and soleus (SO) and one white muscle, white gastrocnemius (WG). Onset, half and full rigor mortis occurred earlier in RG and SO than in WG both at 37 degrees C and at 25 degrees C even though RG and WG were portions of the same muscle. This suggests that rigor mortis directly reflects the postmortem intramuscular ATP level, which decreases more rapidly in red muscle than in white muscle after death. Rigor mortis was more retarded at 25 degrees C than at 37 degrees C in each type of muscle.

  4. Non-animal approaches for toxicokinetics in risk evaluations of food chemicals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Punt, Ans; Peijnenburg, Ad A C M; Hoogenboom, Ron L A P; Bouwmeester, Hans

    2017-01-01

    The objective of the present work was to review the availability and predictive value of non-animal toxicokinetic approaches and to evaluate their current use in European risk evaluations of food contaminants, additives and food contact materials, as well as pesticides and medicines. Results revealed little use of quantitative animal or human kinetic data in risk evaluations of food chemicals, compared with pesticides and medicines. Risk evaluations of medicines provided sufficient in vivo kinetic data from different species to evaluate the predictive value of animal kinetic data for humans. These data showed a relatively poor correlation between the in vivo bioavailability in rats and dogs versus that in humans. In contrast, in vitro (human) kinetic data have been demonstrated to provide adequate predictions of the fate of compounds in humans, using appropriate in vitro-in vivo scalers and by integration of in vitro kinetic data with in silico kinetic modelling. Even though in vitro kinetic data were found to be occasionally included within risk evaluations of food chemicals, particularly results from Caco-2 absorption experiments and in vitro data on gut-microbial conversions, only minor use of in vitro methods for metabolism and quantitative in vitro-in vivo extrapolation methods was identified. Yet, such quantitative predictions are essential in the development of alternatives to animal testing as well as to increase human relevance of toxicological risk evaluations. Future research should aim at further improving and validating quantitative alternative methods for kinetics, thereby increasing regulatory acceptance of non-animal kinetic data.

  5. Regional Risk Evaluation of Flood Disasters for the Trunk-Highway in Shaanxi, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong-Liang Qi

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Due to the complicated environment there are various types of highway disasters in Shaanxi Province (China. The damages caused are severe, losses are heavy, and have rapidly increased over the years, especially those caused by flood disasters along the rivers in mountainous areas. Therefore, research on risk evaluations, which play important roles in the prevention and mitigation of highway disasters are very important. An evaluation model was established based on the superposition theory of regional influencing factors to highway flood disasters. Based on the formation mechanism and influencing factors of highway flood disasters, the main influencing factors were selected. These factors include rainstorms, terrain slopes, soil types, vegetation coverage and regional river density, which are based on evaluation indexes from climate conditions and underlying surface of the basin. A regional risk evaluation of highway flood disasters in Shaanxi was established using GIS. The risk index was divided into five levels using statistical methods, in accordance with the regional characteristics of highway flood disasters. Considering the difference in upfront investments, road grade, etc, between expressways and trunk-highways in China, a regional risk evaluation of trunk-highway flood disasters was completed. The evaluation results indicate that the risk evaluation is consistent with the actual situation.

  6. Regional Risk Evaluation of Flood Disasters for the Trunk-Highway in Shaanxi, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qi, Hong-Liang; Tian, Wei-Ping; Li, Jia-Chun

    2015-10-29

    Due to the complicated environment there are various types of highway disasters in Shaanxi Province (China). The damages caused are severe, losses are heavy, and have rapidly increased over the years, especially those caused by flood disasters along the rivers in mountainous areas. Therefore, research on risk evaluations, which play important roles in the prevention and mitigation of highway disasters are very important. An evaluation model was established based on the superposition theory of regional influencing factors to highway flood disasters. Based on the formation mechanism and influencing factors of highway flood disasters, the main influencing factors were selected. These factors include rainstorms, terrain slopes, soil types, vegetation coverage and regional river density, which are based on evaluation indexes from climate conditions and underlying surface of the basin. A regional risk evaluation of highway flood disasters in Shaanxi was established using GIS. The risk index was divided into five levels using statistical methods, in accordance with the regional characteristics of highway flood disasters. Considering the difference in upfront investments, road grade, etc, between expressways and trunk-highways in China, a regional risk evaluation of trunk-highway flood disasters was completed. The evaluation results indicate that the risk evaluation is consistent with the actual situation.

  7. Credit Risk Evaluation of Large Power Consumers Considering Power Market Transaction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fulin, Li; Erfeng, Xu; ke, Sun; Dunnan, Liu; Shuyi, Shen

    2018-03-01

    Large power users will participate in power market in various forms after power system reform. Meanwhile, great importance has always attached to the construction of the credit system in power industry. Due to the difference between the awareness of performance and the ability to perform, credit risk of power customer will emerge accordingly. Therefore, it is critical to evaluate credit risk of large power customers in the new situation of power market. Firstly, this paper constructs index system of credit risk of large power customers, and establishes evaluation model of interval number and AHP-entropy weight method.

  8. Accident Risks In The Energy Sector: Comparative Evaluations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hirschberg, S.; Burgherr, P.

    2005-01-01

    Severe accidents are considered one of the most controversial issues in current comparative studies of the environmental and health impact of energy systems. The present work focuses on severe accident scenarios relating to fossil energy chains (coal, oil and gas), nuclear power and hydro-power. The scope of the study is not limited to the power production (conversion) step of these energy chains, but, wherever applicable, also includes full energy chains. With the exception of the nuclear chain, the focus of the present work is on the evaluation of the historical experience of accidents. The basis for this evaluation is the comprehensive database ENSAD (Energy-Related Severe Accident Database), which has been established at PSI. For hypothetical nuclear accidents, a probabilistic technique has also been employed. The broader picture, derived from examination of full energy chains, leads, on a world-wide basis, to the conclusion that immediate fatality rates are much higher for the fossil chains than expected if only power plants are considered. Generally, immediate fatality rates are significantly higher for non-OECD countries than for OECD countries, and, in the case of hydro and nuclear, the difference is rather dramatic. In addition to aggregated values, frequency-consequence curves are also provided, since they not only reflect implicitly a ranking based on aggregated values, but also include such information as the observed, or predicted, chain-specific maximum extent of damages. Finally, damage and external costs of severe accidents for the different energy chains have been estimated, based on the unit cost values for the various consequence types. (author)

  9. High and low rigor temperature effects on sheep meat tenderness and ageing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devine, Carrick E; Payne, Steven R; Peachey, Bridget M; Lowe, Timothy E; Ingram, John R; Cook, Christian J

    2002-02-01

    Immediately after electrical stimulation, the paired m. longissimus thoracis et lumborum (LT) of 40 sheep were boned out and wrapped tightly with a polyethylene cling film. One of the paired LT's was chilled in 15°C air to reach a rigor mortis (rigor) temperature of 18°C and the other side was placed in a water bath at 35°C and achieved rigor at this temperature. Wrapping reduced rigor shortening and mimicked meat left on the carcass. After rigor, the meat was aged at 15°C for 0, 8, 26 and 72 h and then frozen. The frozen meat was cooked to 75°C in an 85°C water bath and shear force values obtained from a 1×1 cm cross-section. The shear force values of meat for 18 and 35°C rigor were similar at zero ageing, but as ageing progressed, the 18 rigor meat aged faster and became more tender than meat that went into rigor at 35°C (Prigor at each ageing time were significantly different (Prigor were still significantly greater. Thus the toughness of 35°C meat was not a consequence of muscle shortening and appears to be due to both a faster rate of tenderisation and the meat tenderising to a greater extent at the lower temperature. The cook loss at 35°C rigor (30.5%) was greater than that at 18°C rigor (28.4%) (P<0.01) and the colour Hunter L values were higher at 35°C (P<0.01) compared with 18°C, but there were no significant differences in a or b values.

  10. Risk evaluation and mitigation strategies: a focus on the mycophenolic acid preparations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rostas, Sara; Kim, Miae; Gabardi, Steven

    2014-03-01

    To review risks associated with mycophenolic acid (MPA) preparations and evaluate their required risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS) elements. Articles were identified through a non-date-limited MEDLINE and EMBASE search using the terms fetal toxicity, teratogenicity, risk evaluation and mitigation strategies, REMS, MPA, mycophenolate mofetil, entericcoated MPA, and organ transplant. Information from the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and the manufacturers of the MPA preparations was also evaluated. The MPA preparations are associated with several potential risks, including gastrointestinal disturbances and myelosuppression; however, their impact on the fetus in pregnant patients taking 1 of these agents poses the greatest risk. The FDA approved REMS programs for all MPA products, both innovator and generic preparations, in September 2012. With evidence of increased risk of miscarriage and birth defects associated with MPA use, the FDA instituted a REMS program that contains both a medication guide and elements to assure safe use (ETASU). The medication guides for the MPA products, which were previously FDA approved, should continue to be distributed to patients who get either an initial prescription filled or a refill. The ETASU requires prescribers to complete training and obtain patient signatures on the Patient-Prescriber Acknowledgment Form. A single, national, voluntary pregnancy registry specific to this medication has been established, and pregnant patients should be encouraged to participate. Although the impact of the MPA REMS on clinical practice is not clear, it is a step toward increasing the understanding of fetal risks with MPA.

  11. Chemical mixtures: Evaluation of risk for child-specific exposures in a multi-stressor environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pohl, H.R.; Abadin, H.G.

    2008-01-01

    Evaluating the health impact from exposure to chemical mixtures is multifaceted. One component is exposure. Exposure, and consequently risk assessment for mixtures and chemicals in general, are often viewed in terms of a given exposure to a given population at a given location over a given time period. However, environmental exposures are present throughout human lifetime. As a result, an evaluation of risk must include the distinctive characteristics related to chemical exposures which will impact risk depending upon the particular life stage where exposure occurs. Risks to offspring may be associated with unique exposures in utero, during infancy, childhood, or adolescent periods. For example, exposure of infants to anthropogenic chemicals via breast milk may be of concern. The Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry's (ATSDR's) approach to evaluating risks associated with exposure to mixtures of chemicals is presented. In addition to the breast milk issues, indoor exposure to combined air pollutants, drinking water contaminants, and soil and dust contaminants are discussed. The difference between a mixture's risk evaluation for children and adults is in the distinct exposure scenarios resulting from variations in behavior, physiology, and/or pharmacokinetics between adults and children rather than in the method for the specific mixtures evaluation per se

  12. Colonic polyps: inheritance, susceptibility, risk evaluation, and diagnostic management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emanuele Neri

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Emanuele Neri, Lorenzo Faggioni, Lorenzo Cini, Carlo BartolozziDiagnostic and Interventional Radiology, University of Pisa, Pisa, ItalyAbstract: Colorectal cancer (CRC is the third-ranked neoplasm in order of incidence and mortality, worldwide, and the second cause of cancer death in industrialized countries. One of the most important environmental risk factors for CRC is a Western-type diet, which is characterized by a low-fiber and high-fat content. Up to 25% of patients with CRC have a family history for CRC, and a fraction of these patients are affected by hereditary syndromes, such as familial adenomatous polyposis, Gardner or Turcot syndromes, or hereditary nonpolyposis colorectal cancer. The onset of CRC is triggered by a well-defined combination of genetic alterations, which form the bases of the adenoma-carcinoma sequence hypothesis and justify the set-up of CRC screening techniques. Several screening and diagnostic tests for CRC are illustrated, including rectosigmoidoscopy, optical colonoscopy (OC, double contrast barium enema (DCBE, and computed tomography colonography (CTC. The strengths and weaknesses of each technique are discussed. Particular attention is paid to CTC, which has evolved from an experimental technique to an accurate and mature diagnostic approach, and gained wide acceptance and clinical validation for CRC screening. This success of CTC is due mainly to its ability to provide cross-sectional analytical images of the entire colon and secondarily detect extracolonic findings, with minimal invasiveness and lower cost than OC, and with greater detail and diagnostic accuracy than DCBE. Moreover, especially with the advent and widespread availability of modern multidetector CT scanners, excellent quality 2D and 3D reconstructions of the large bowel can be obtained routinely with a relatively low radiation dose. Computer-aided detection systems have also been developed to assist radiologists in reading CTC examinations

  13. Bilateral breast cancer: an evaluation of risk factors and outcome

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Komarnicky, Lydia T.; Schwartz, Gordon F.; Mansfield, Carl M.; Hadjipanayis, Costantinos; Williamson, Shirnett; Swensson, Lee

    1996-01-01

    bilateral breast cancer patients who present with synchronous disease are at greater risk for distant metastatis than women with unilateral breast cancers and patients with metachronous tumors. There was no difference in overall survival or local control when comparing metachronous and synchronous bilateral patients to those with unilateral disease or to each other

  14. The Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Statistically Corrected Operative Risk Evaluation (AAA SCORE) for predicting mortality after open and endovascular interventions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ambler, Graeme K; Gohel, Manjit S; Mitchell, David C; Loftus, Ian M; Boyle, Jonathan R

    2015-01-01

    Accurate adjustment of surgical outcome data for risk is vital in an era of surgeon-level reporting. Current risk prediction models for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair are suboptimal. We aimed to develop a reliable risk model for in-hospital mortality after intervention for AAA, using rigorous contemporary statistical techniques to handle missing data. Using data collected during a 15-month period in the United Kingdom National Vascular Database, we applied multiple imputation methodology together with stepwise model selection to generate preoperative and perioperative models of in-hospital mortality after AAA repair, using two thirds of the available data. Model performance was then assessed on the remaining third of the data by receiver operating characteristic curve analysis and compared with existing risk prediction models. Model calibration was assessed by Hosmer-Lemeshow analysis. A total of 8088 AAA repair operations were recorded in the National Vascular Database during the study period, of which 5870 (72.6%) were elective procedures. Both preoperative and perioperative models showed excellent discrimination, with areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of .89 and .92, respectively. This was significantly better than any of the existing models (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for best comparator model, .84 and .88; P AAA repair. These models were carefully developed with rigorous statistical methodology and significantly outperform existing methods for both elective cases and overall AAA mortality. These models will be invaluable for both preoperative patient counseling and accurate risk adjustment of published outcome data. Copyright © 2015 Society for Vascular Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Offshore wind turbine risk quantification/evaluation under extreme environmental conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taflanidis, Alexandros A.; Loukogeorgaki, Eva; Angelides, Demos C.

    2013-01-01

    A simulation-based framework is discussed in this paper for quantification/evaluation of risk and development of automated risk assessment tools, focusing on applications to offshore wind turbines under extreme environmental conditions. The framework is founded on a probabilistic characterization of the uncertainty in the models for the excitation, the turbine and its performance. Risk is then quantified as the expected value of some risk consequence measure over the probability distributions considered for the uncertain model parameters. Stochastic simulation is proposed for the risk assessment, corresponding to the evaluation of some associated probabilistic integral quantifying risk, as it allows for the adoption of comprehensive computational models for describing the dynamic turbine behavior. For improvement of the computational efficiency, a surrogate modeling approach is introduced based on moving least squares response surface approximations. The assessment is also extended to a probabilistic sensitivity analysis that identifies the importance of each of the uncertain model parameters, i.e. risk factors, towards the total risk as well as towards each of the failure modes contributing to this risk. The versatility and computational efficiency of the advocated approaches is finally exploited to support the development of standalone risk assessment applets for automated implementation of the probabilistic risk quantification/assessment. -- Highlights: ► A simulation-based risk quantification/assessment framework is discussed. ► Focus is on offshore wind turbines under extreme environmental conditions. ► Approach is founded on probabilistic description of excitation/system model parameters. ► Surrogate modeling is adopted for improved computational efficiency. ► Standalone risk assessment applets for automated implementation are supported

  16. Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation-based disaster risk assessment of desertification in Horqin Sand Land, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yongfang; Zhang, Jiquan; Guo, Enliang; Sun, Zhongyi

    2015-02-03

    Desertification is a typical disaster risk event in which human settlements and living environments are destroyed. Desertification Disaster Risk Assessment can control and prevent the occurrence and development of desertification disasters and reduce their adverse influence on human society. This study presents the methodology and procedure for risk assessment and zoning of desertification disasters in Horqin Sand Land. Based on natural disaster risk theory and the desertification disaster formation mechanism, the Desertification Disaster Risk Index (DDRI) combined hazard, exposure, vulnerability and restorability factors and was developed mainly by using multi-source data and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. The results showed that high risk and middle risk areas account for 28% and 23% of the study area, respectively. They are distributed with an "S" type in the study area. Low risk and very low risk areas account for 21% and 10% of the study area, respectively. They are distributed in the west-central and southwestern parts. Very high risk areas account for 18% of the study area and are distributed in the northeastern parts. The results can be used to know the desertification disaster risk level. It has important theoretical and practical significance to prevention and control of desertification in Horqin Sand Land and even in Northern China.

  17. Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation-Based Disaster Risk Assessment of Desertification in Horqin Sand Land, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yongfang Wang

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Desertification is a typical disaster risk event in which human settlements and living environments are destroyed. Desertification Disaster Risk Assessment can control and prevent the occurrence and development of desertification disasters and reduce their adverse influence on human society. This study presents the methodology and procedure for risk assessment and zoning of desertification disasters in Horqin Sand Land. Based on natural disaster risk theory and the desertification disaster formation mechanism, the Desertification Disaster Risk Index (DDRI combined hazard, exposure, vulnerability and restorability factors and was developed mainly by using multi-source data and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. The results showed that high risk and middle risk areas account for 28% and 23% of the study area, respectively. They are distributed with an “S” type in the study area. Low risk and very low risk areas account for 21% and 10% of the study area, respectively. They are distributed in the west-central and southwestern parts. Very high risk areas account for 18% of the study area and are distributed in the northeastern parts. The results can be used to know the desertification disaster risk level. It has important theoretical and practical significance to prevention and control of desertification in Horqin Sand Land and even in Northern China.

  18. Negative radiographic examinations: Evaluation of risks from exposure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frometa Suarez, I.; Jerez Vegueria, S.F.

    1997-01-01

    The individual dose of radiation per radiological diagnosis is decreasing, which is an important contribution for the number of exposed population. This is a result of a completed study presented by the Manuel Fajardo Surgery Clinic of the Municipality of Havana, which evaluated the behaviour of the negative radiological examinations and their contribution to the collective dose as well as the associated detriment. 486 cases with radiographic examinations are reported over a period of four months. The information on individual cases is classified by type of radiographic examination and whether the outcome of the examination was positive or negative, the absorbed doses per organ and irradiated tissue, dose equivalent, collective and effective doses. The probability of the occurrence of a fatal cancer and associated genetic damage due to the examinations is also considered. 41% of the examinations performed were negative, with a collective dose of 11.35 manSv and 52.9 % of the total doses contributed for all the radiological examinations of the population studied

  19. Evaluation of Investment Risks in CBA with Monte Carlo Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jana Korytárová

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Investment decisions are at the core of any development strategy. Economic growth and welfare depend on productive capital, infrastructure, human capital, knowledge, total factor productivity and the quality of institutions. Decision-making process on the selection of suitable projects in the public sector is in some aspects more difficult than in the private sector. Evaluating projects on the basis of their financial profitability, where the basic parameter is the value of the potential profit, can be misleading in these cases. One of the basic objectives of the allocation of public resources is respecting of the 3E principle (Economy, Effectiveness, Efficiency in their whole life cycle. The life cycle of the investment projects consists of four main phases. The first pre-investment phase is very important for decision-making process whether to accept or reject a public project for its realization. A well-designed feasibility study as well as cost-benefit analysis (CBA in this phase are important assumptions for future success of the project. A future financial and economical CF which represent the fundamental basis for calculation of economic effectiveness indicators are formed and modelled in these documents. This paper deals with the possibility to calculate the financial and economic efficiency of the public investment projects more accurately by simulation methods used.

  20. Rigorous Clinical Trial Design in Public Health Emergencies Is Essential

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ellenberg, Susan S; Keusch, Gerald T; Babiker, Abdel G

    2018-01-01

    Randomized clinical trials are the most reliable approaches to evaluating the effects of new treatments and vaccines. During the 2014-15 West African Ebola epidemic, many argued that such trials were neither ethical nor feasible in an environment of limited health infrastructure and severe disease...