Ridge regression estimator: combining unbiased and ordinary ridge regression methods of estimation
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sharad Damodar Gore
2009-10-01
Full Text Available Statistical literature has several methods for coping with multicollinearity. This paper introduces a new shrinkage estimator, called modified unbiased ridge (MUR. This estimator is obtained from unbiased ridge regression (URR in the same way that ordinary ridge regression (ORR is obtained from ordinary least squares (OLS. Properties of MUR are derived. Results on its matrix mean squared error (MMSE are obtained. MUR is compared with ORR and URR in terms of MMSE. These results are illustrated with an example based on data generated by Hoerl and Kennard (1975.
Ariffin, Syaiba Balqish; Midi, Habshah
2014-06-01
This article is concerned with the performance of logistic ridge regression estimation technique in the presence of multicollinearity and high leverage points. In logistic regression, multicollinearity exists among predictors and in the information matrix. The maximum likelihood estimator suffers a huge setback in the presence of multicollinearity which cause regression estimates to have unduly large standard errors. To remedy this problem, a logistic ridge regression estimator is put forward. It is evident that the logistic ridge regression estimator outperforms the maximum likelihood approach for handling multicollinearity. The effect of high leverage points are then investigated on the performance of the logistic ridge regression estimator through real data set and simulation study. The findings signify that logistic ridge regression estimator fails to provide better parameter estimates in the presence of both high leverage points and multicollinearity.
Using the Ridge Regression Procedures to Estimate the Multiple Linear Regression Coefficients
Gorgees, HazimMansoor; Mahdi, FatimahAssim
2018-05-01
This article concerns with comparing the performance of different types of ordinary ridge regression estimators that have been already proposed to estimate the regression parameters when the near exact linear relationships among the explanatory variables is presented. For this situations we employ the data obtained from tagi gas filling company during the period (2008-2010). The main result we reached is that the method based on the condition number performs better than other methods since it has smaller mean square error (MSE) than the other stated methods.
Zahari, Siti Meriam; Ramli, Norazan Mohamed; Moktar, Balkiah; Zainol, Mohammad Said
2014-09-01
In the presence of multicollinearity and multiple outliers, statistical inference of linear regression model using ordinary least squares (OLS) estimators would be severely affected and produces misleading results. To overcome this, many approaches have been investigated. These include robust methods which were reported to be less sensitive to the presence of outliers. In addition, ridge regression technique was employed to tackle multicollinearity problem. In order to mitigate both problems, a combination of ridge regression and robust methods was discussed in this study. The superiority of this approach was examined when simultaneous presence of multicollinearity and multiple outliers occurred in multiple linear regression. This study aimed to look at the performance of several well-known robust estimators; M, MM, RIDGE and robust ridge regression estimators, namely Weighted Ridge M-estimator (WRM), Weighted Ridge MM (WRMM), Ridge MM (RMM), in such a situation. Results of the study showed that in the presence of simultaneous multicollinearity and multiple outliers (in both x and y-direction), the RMM and RIDGE are more or less similar in terms of superiority over the other estimators, regardless of the number of observation, level of collinearity and percentage of outliers used. However, when outliers occurred in only single direction (y-direction), the WRMM estimator is the most superior among the robust ridge regression estimators, by producing the least variance. In conclusion, the robust ridge regression is the best alternative as compared to robust and conventional least squares estimators when dealing with simultaneous presence of multicollinearity and outliers.
Ridge Regression Signal Processing
Kuhl, Mark R.
1990-01-01
The introduction of the Global Positioning System (GPS) into the National Airspace System (NAS) necessitates the development of Receiver Autonomous Integrity Monitoring (RAIM) techniques. In order to guarantee a certain level of integrity, a thorough understanding of modern estimation techniques applied to navigational problems is required. The extended Kalman filter (EKF) is derived and analyzed under poor geometry conditions. It was found that the performance of the EKF is difficult to predict, since the EKF is designed for a Gaussian environment. A novel approach is implemented which incorporates ridge regression to explain the behavior of an EKF in the presence of dynamics under poor geometry conditions. The basic principles of ridge regression theory are presented, followed by the derivation of a linearized recursive ridge estimator. Computer simulations are performed to confirm the underlying theory and to provide a comparative analysis of the EKF and the recursive ridge estimator.
The efficiency of modified jackknife and ridge type regression estimators: a comparison
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sharad Damodar Gore
2008-09-01
Full Text Available A common problem in multiple regression models is multicollinearity, which produces undesirable effects on the least squares estimator. To circumvent this problem, two well known estimation procedures are often suggested in the literature. They are Generalized Ridge Regression (GRR estimation suggested by Hoerl and Kennard iteb8 and the Jackknifed Ridge Regression (JRR estimation suggested by Singh et al. iteb13. The GRR estimation leads to a reduction in the sampling variance, whereas, JRR leads to a reduction in the bias. In this paper, we propose a new estimator namely, Modified Jackknife Ridge Regression Estimator (MJR. It is based on the criterion that combines the ideas underlying both the GRR and JRR estimators. We have investigated standard properties of this new estimator. From a simulation study, we find that the new estimator often outperforms the LASSO, and it is superior to both GRR and JRR estimators, using the mean squared error criterion. The conditions under which the MJR estimator is better than the other two competing estimators have been investigated.
Graphical evaluation of the ridge-type robust regression estimators in mixture experiments.
Erkoc, Ali; Emiroglu, Esra; Akay, Kadri Ulas
2014-01-01
In mixture experiments, estimation of the parameters is generally based on ordinary least squares (OLS). However, in the presence of multicollinearity and outliers, OLS can result in very poor estimates. In this case, effects due to the combined outlier-multicollinearity problem can be reduced to certain extent by using alternative approaches. One of these approaches is to use biased-robust regression techniques for the estimation of parameters. In this paper, we evaluate various ridge-type robust estimators in the cases where there are multicollinearity and outliers during the analysis of mixture experiments. Also, for selection of biasing parameter, we use fraction of design space plots for evaluating the effect of the ridge-type robust estimators with respect to the scaled mean squared error of prediction. The suggested graphical approach is illustrated on Hald cement data set.
Bulcock, J. W.; And Others
Multicollinearity refers to the presence of highly intercorrelated independent variables in structural equation models, that is, models estimated by using techniques such as least squares regression and maximum likelihood. There is a problem of multicollinearity in both the natural and social sciences where theory formulation and estimation is in…
Bulcock, J. W.
The problem of model estimation when the data are collinear was examined. Though the ridge regression (RR) outperforms ordinary least squares (OLS) regression in the presence of acute multicollinearity, it is not a problem free technique for reducing the variance of the estimates. It is a stochastic procedure when it should be nonstochastic and it…
Normalization Ridge Regression in Practice II: The Estimation of Multiple Feedback Linkages.
Bulcock, J. W.
The use of the two-stage least squares (2 SLS) procedure for estimating nonrecursive social science models is often impractical when multiple feedback linkages are required. This is because 2 SLS is extremely sensitive to multicollinearity. The standard statistical solution to the multicollinearity problem is a biased, variance reduced procedure…
Nonlinear Forecasting With Many Predictors Using Kernel Ridge Regression
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Exterkate, Peter; Groenen, Patrick J.F.; Heij, Christiaan
This paper puts forward kernel ridge regression as an approach for forecasting with many predictors that are related nonlinearly to the target variable. In kernel ridge regression, the observed predictor variables are mapped nonlinearly into a high-dimensional space, where estimation of the predi...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Zhi-Sai Ma
2017-01-01
Full Text Available Modal parameter estimation plays an important role in vibration-based damage detection and is worth more attention and investigation, as changes in modal parameters are usually being used as damage indicators. This paper focuses on the problem of output-only modal parameter recursive estimation of time-varying structures based upon parameterized representations of the time-dependent autoregressive moving average (TARMA. A kernel ridge regression functional series TARMA (FS-TARMA recursive identification scheme is proposed and subsequently employed for the modal parameter estimation of a numerical three-degree-of-freedom time-varying structural system and a laboratory time-varying structure consisting of a simply supported beam and a moving mass sliding on it. The proposed method is comparatively assessed against an existing recursive pseudolinear regression FS-TARMA approach via Monte Carlo experiments and shown to be capable of accurately tracking the time-varying dynamics in a recursive manner.
Significance testing in ridge regression for genetic data
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
De Iorio Maria
2011-09-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Technological developments have increased the feasibility of large scale genetic association studies. Densely typed genetic markers are obtained using SNP arrays, next-generation sequencing technologies and imputation. However, SNPs typed using these methods can be highly correlated due to linkage disequilibrium among them, and standard multiple regression techniques fail with these data sets due to their high dimensionality and correlation structure. There has been increasing interest in using penalised regression in the analysis of high dimensional data. Ridge regression is one such penalised regression technique which does not perform variable selection, instead estimating a regression coefficient for each predictor variable. It is therefore desirable to obtain an estimate of the significance of each ridge regression coefficient. Results We develop and evaluate a test of significance for ridge regression coefficients. Using simulation studies, we demonstrate that the performance of the test is comparable to that of a permutation test, with the advantage of a much-reduced computational cost. We introduce the p-value trace, a plot of the negative logarithm of the p-values of ridge regression coefficients with increasing shrinkage parameter, which enables the visualisation of the change in p-value of the regression coefficients with increasing penalisation. We apply the proposed method to a lung cancer case-control data set from EPIC, the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition. Conclusions The proposed test is a useful alternative to a permutation test for the estimation of the significance of ridge regression coefficients, at a much-reduced computational cost. The p-value trace is an informative graphical tool for evaluating the results of a test of significance of ridge regression coefficients as the shrinkage parameter increases, and the proposed test makes its production computationally feasible.
On the mean squared error of the ridge estimator of the covariance and precision matrix
van Wieringen, Wessel N.
2017-01-01
For a suitably chosen ridge penalty parameter, the ridge regression estimator uniformly dominates the maximum likelihood regression estimator in terms of the mean squared error. Analogous results for the ridge maximum likelihood estimators of covariance and precision matrix are presented.
Model selection in kernel ridge regression
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Exterkate, Peter
2013-01-01
Kernel ridge regression is a technique to perform ridge regression with a potentially infinite number of nonlinear transformations of the independent variables as regressors. This method is gaining popularity as a data-rich nonlinear forecasting tool, which is applicable in many different contexts....... The influence of the choice of kernel and the setting of tuning parameters on forecast accuracy is investigated. Several popular kernels are reviewed, including polynomial kernels, the Gaussian kernel, and the Sinc kernel. The latter two kernels are interpreted in terms of their smoothing properties......, and the tuning parameters associated to all these kernels are related to smoothness measures of the prediction function and to the signal-to-noise ratio. Based on these interpretations, guidelines are provided for selecting the tuning parameters from small grids using cross-validation. A Monte Carlo study...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Javier Hernandez
2015-02-01
Full Text Available Plant breeding based on grain yield (GY is an expensive and time-consuming method, so new indirect estimation techniques to evaluate the performance of crops represent an alternative method to improve grain yield. The present study evaluated the ability of canopy reflectance spectroscopy at the range from 350 to 2500 nm to predict GY in a large panel (368 genotypes of wheat (Triticum aestivum L. through multivariate ridge regression models. Plants were treated under three water regimes in the Mediterranean conditions of central Chile: severe water stress (SWS, rain fed, mild water stress (MWS; one irrigation event around booting and full irrigation (FI with mean GYs of 1655, 4739, and 7967 kg∙ha−1, respectively. Models developed from reflectance data during anthesis and grain filling under all water regimes explained between 77% and 91% of the GY variability, with the highest values in SWS condition. When individual models were used to predict yield in the rest of the trials assessed, models fitted during anthesis under MWS performed best. Combined models using data from different water regimes and each phenological stage were used to predict grain yield, and the coefficients of determination (R2 increased to 89.9% and 92.0% for anthesis and grain filling, respectively. The model generated during anthesis in MWS was the best at predicting yields when it was applied to other conditions. Comparisons against conventional reflectance indices were made, showing lower predictive abilities. It was concluded that a Ridge Regression Model using a data set based on spectral reflectance at anthesis or grain filling represents an effective method to predict grain yield in genotypes under different water regimes.
Model Selection in Kernel Ridge Regression
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Exterkate, Peter
Kernel ridge regression is gaining popularity as a data-rich nonlinear forecasting tool, which is applicable in many different contexts. This paper investigates the influence of the choice of kernel and the setting of tuning parameters on forecast accuracy. We review several popular kernels......, including polynomial kernels, the Gaussian kernel, and the Sinc kernel. We interpret the latter two kernels in terms of their smoothing properties, and we relate the tuning parameters associated to all these kernels to smoothness measures of the prediction function and to the signal-to-noise ratio. Based...... on these interpretations, we provide guidelines for selecting the tuning parameters from small grids using cross-validation. A Monte Carlo study confirms the practical usefulness of these rules of thumb. Finally, the flexible and smooth functional forms provided by the Gaussian and Sinc kernels makes them widely...
DRREP: deep ridge regressed epitope predictor.
Sher, Gene; Zhi, Degui; Zhang, Shaojie
2017-10-03
The ability to predict epitopes plays an enormous role in vaccine development in terms of our ability to zero in on where to do a more thorough in-vivo analysis of the protein in question. Though for the past decade there have been numerous advancements and improvements in epitope prediction, on average the best benchmark prediction accuracies are still only around 60%. New machine learning algorithms have arisen within the domain of deep learning, text mining, and convolutional networks. This paper presents a novel analytically trained and string kernel using deep neural network, which is tailored for continuous epitope prediction, called: Deep Ridge Regressed Epitope Predictor (DRREP). DRREP was tested on long protein sequences from the following datasets: SARS, Pellequer, HIV, AntiJen, and SEQ194. DRREP was compared to numerous state of the art epitope predictors, including the most recently published predictors called LBtope and DMNLBE. Using area under ROC curve (AUC), DRREP achieved a performance improvement over the best performing predictors on SARS (13.7%), HIV (8.9%), Pellequer (1.5%), and SEQ194 (3.1%), with its performance being matched only on the AntiJen dataset, by the LBtope predictor, where both DRREP and LBtope achieved an AUC of 0.702. DRREP is an analytically trained deep neural network, thus capable of learning in a single step through regression. By combining the features of deep learning, string kernels, and convolutional networks, the system is able to perform residue-by-residue prediction of continues epitopes with higher accuracy than the current state of the art predictors.
Shariff, Nurul Sima Mohamad; Ferdaos, Nur Aqilah
2017-08-01
Multicollinearity often leads to inconsistent and unreliable parameter estimates in regression analysis. This situation will be more severe in the presence of outliers it will cause fatter tails in the error distributions than the normal distributions. The well-known procedure that is robust to multicollinearity problem is the ridge regression method. This method however is expected to be affected by the presence of outliers due to some assumptions imposed in the modeling procedure. Thus, the robust version of existing ridge method with some modification in the inverse matrix and the estimated response value is introduced. The performance of the proposed method is discussed and comparisons are made with several existing estimators namely, Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), ridge regression and robust ridge regression based on GM-estimates. The finding of this study is able to produce reliable parameter estimates in the presence of both multicollinearity and outliers in the data.
A comparative study of some robust ridge and liu estimators ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
In multiple linear regression analysis, multicollinearity and outliers are two main problems. When multicollinearity exists, biased estimation techniques such as Ridge and Liu Estimators are preferable to Ordinary Least Square. On the other hand, when outliers exist in the data, robust estimators like M, MM, LTS and S ...
An application of robust ridge regression model in the presence of outliers to real data problem
Shariff, N. S. Md.; Ferdaos, N. A.
2017-09-01
Multicollinearity and outliers are often leads to inconsistent and unreliable parameter estimates in regression analysis. The well-known procedure that is robust to multicollinearity problem is the ridge regression method. This method however is believed are affected by the presence of outlier. The combination of GM-estimation and ridge parameter that is robust towards both problems is on interest in this study. As such, both techniques are employed to investigate the relationship between stock market price and macroeconomic variables in Malaysia due to curiosity of involving the multicollinearity and outlier problem in the data set. There are four macroeconomic factors selected for this study which are Consumer Price Index (CPI), Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Base Lending Rate (BLR) and Money Supply (M1). The results demonstrate that the proposed procedure is able to produce reliable results towards the presence of multicollinearity and outliers in the real data.
A simulation study on Bayesian Ridge regression models for several collinearity levels
Efendi, Achmad; Effrihan
2017-12-01
When analyzing data with multiple regression model if there are collinearities, then one or several predictor variables are usually omitted from the model. However, there sometimes some reasons, for instance medical or economic reasons, the predictors are all important and should be included in the model. Ridge regression model is not uncommon in some researches to use to cope with collinearity. Through this modeling, weights for predictor variables are used for estimating parameters. The next estimation process could follow the concept of likelihood. Furthermore, for the estimation nowadays the Bayesian version could be an alternative. This estimation method does not match likelihood one in terms of popularity due to some difficulties; computation and so forth. Nevertheless, with the growing improvement of computational methodology recently, this caveat should not at the moment become a problem. This paper discusses about simulation process for evaluating the characteristic of Bayesian Ridge regression parameter estimates. There are several simulation settings based on variety of collinearity levels and sample sizes. The results show that Bayesian method gives better performance for relatively small sample sizes, and for other settings the method does perform relatively similar to the likelihood method.
a comparative study of some robust ridge and liu estimators
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Dr A.B.Ahmed
estimation techniques such as Ridge and Liu Estimators are preferable to Ordinary Least Square. On the other hand, when outliers exist in the data, robust estimators like M, MM, LTS and S. Estimators, are preferred. To handle these two problems jointly, the study combines the Ridge and Liu Estimators with Robust.
The current and future use of ridge regression for prediction in quantitative genetics
Vlaming, Ronald; Groenen, Patrick
2015-01-01
textabstractIn recent years, there has been a considerable amount of research on the use of regularization methods for inference and prediction in quantitative genetics. Such research mostly focuses on selection of markers and shrinkage of their effects. In this review paper, the use of ridge regression for prediction in quantitative genetics using single-nucleotide polymorphism data is discussed. In particular, we consider (i) the theoretical foundations of ridge regression, (ii) its link to...
The Current and Future Use of Ridge Regression for Prediction in Quantitative Genetics
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ronald de Vlaming
2015-01-01
Full Text Available In recent years, there has been a considerable amount of research on the use of regularization methods for inference and prediction in quantitative genetics. Such research mostly focuses on selection of markers and shrinkage of their effects. In this review paper, the use of ridge regression for prediction in quantitative genetics using single-nucleotide polymorphism data is discussed. In particular, we consider (i the theoretical foundations of ridge regression, (ii its link to commonly used methods in animal breeding, (iii the computational feasibility, and (iv the scope for constructing prediction models with nonlinear effects (e.g., dominance and epistasis. Based on a simulation study we gauge the current and future potential of ridge regression for prediction of human traits using genome-wide SNP data. We conclude that, for outcomes with a relatively simple genetic architecture, given current sample sizes in most cohorts (i.e., N<10,000 the predictive accuracy of ridge regression is slightly higher than the classical genome-wide association study approach of repeated simple regression (i.e., one regression per SNP. However, both capture only a small proportion of the heritability. Nevertheless, we find evidence that for large-scale initiatives, such as biobanks, sample sizes can be achieved where ridge regression compared to the classical approach improves predictive accuracy substantially.
Dynamic travel time estimation using regression trees.
2008-10-01
This report presents a methodology for travel time estimation by using regression trees. The dissemination of travel time information has become crucial for effective traffic management, especially under congested road conditions. In the absence of c...
Regression Equations for Birth Weight Estimation using ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
In this study, Birth Weight has been estimated from anthropometric measurements of hand and foot. Linear regression equations were formed from each of the measured variables. These simple equations can be used to estimate Birth Weight of new born babies, in order to identify those with low birth weight and referred to ...
Ridge Regression: A tool to forecast wheat area and production
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Nasir Jamal
2007-07-01
Full Text Available This research study is designed to develop forecasting models for acreage and production of wheat crop for Chakwal district of Rawalpindi region keeping in view the assumptions of OLS estimation. The forecasting models are developed on the basis of 15 years data from 1984-85 to 1998-99 then wheat area and production for next five years from 1999-2000 to 2003-04 is forecasted through the models and compared with the actual figures. After evaluating the accuracy of the models, final models are developed on the basis of 20 years data for the period 1984-85 to 2003-04. These linear models can be used to forecast wheat area and production of next five years. The Urea fertilizer, DAP fertilizer and manures plays a significant role to enhance the production of wheat crop. Number of ploughs in the wheat fields is significant factor to increase the production of wheat crop. Good rains in the month of October and November significantly contributes to increase the production of wheat crop and mean maximum temperature in the month of March is a significant factor to reduce the production of wheat crop.
Ridge Distance Estimation in Fingerprint Images: Algorithm and Performance Evaluation
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Tian Jie
2004-01-01
Full Text Available It is important to estimate the ridge distance accurately, an intrinsic texture property of a fingerprint image. Up to now, only several articles have touched directly upon ridge distance estimation. Little has been published providing detailed evaluation of methods for ridge distance estimation, in particular, the traditional spectral analysis method applied in the frequency field. In this paper, a novel method on nonoverlap blocks, called the statistical method, is presented to estimate the ridge distance. Direct estimation ratio (DER and estimation accuracy (EA are defined and used as parameters along with time consumption (TC to evaluate performance of these two methods for ridge distance estimation. Based on comparison of performances of these two methods, a third hybrid method is developed to combine the merits of both methods. Experimental results indicate that DER is 44.7%, 63.8%, and 80.6%; EA is 84%, 93%, and 91%; and TC is , , and seconds, with the spectral analysis method, statistical method, and hybrid method, respectively.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Matthews, Daniel J.; Newman, Jeffrey A.
2012-01-01
Cross-correlation techniques provide a promising avenue for calibrating photometric redshifts and determining redshift distributions using spectroscopy which is systematically incomplete (e.g., current deep spectroscopic surveys fail to obtain secure redshifts for 30%-50% or more of the galaxies targeted). In this paper, we improve on the redshift distribution reconstruction methods from our previous work by incorporating full covariance information into our correlation function fits. Correlation function measurements are strongly covariant between angular or spatial bins, and accounting for this in fitting can yield substantial reduction in errors. However, frequently the covariance matrices used in these calculations are determined from a relatively small set (dozens rather than hundreds) of subsamples or mock catalogs, resulting in noisy covariance matrices whose inversion is ill-conditioned and numerically unstable. We present here a method of conditioning the covariance matrix known as ridge regression which results in a more well behaved inversion than other techniques common in large-scale structure studies. We demonstrate that ridge regression significantly improves the determination of correlation function parameters. We then apply these improved techniques to the problem of reconstructing redshift distributions. By incorporating full covariance information, applying ridge regression, and changing the weighting of fields in obtaining average correlation functions, we obtain reductions in the mean redshift distribution reconstruction error of as much as ∼40% compared to previous methods. We provide a description of POWERFIT, an IDL code for performing power-law fits to correlation functions with ridge regression conditioning that we are making publicly available.
A Comparative Study of Pairwise Learning Methods Based on Kernel Ridge Regression.
Stock, Michiel; Pahikkala, Tapio; Airola, Antti; De Baets, Bernard; Waegeman, Willem
2018-06-12
Many machine learning problems can be formulated as predicting labels for a pair of objects. Problems of that kind are often referred to as pairwise learning, dyadic prediction, or network inference problems. During the past decade, kernel methods have played a dominant role in pairwise learning. They still obtain a state-of-the-art predictive performance, but a theoretical analysis of their behavior has been underexplored in the machine learning literature. In this work we review and unify kernel-based algorithms that are commonly used in different pairwise learning settings, ranging from matrix filtering to zero-shot learning. To this end, we focus on closed-form efficient instantiations of Kronecker kernel ridge regression. We show that independent task kernel ridge regression, two-step kernel ridge regression, and a linear matrix filter arise naturally as a special case of Kronecker kernel ridge regression, implying that all these methods implicitly minimize a squared loss. In addition, we analyze universality, consistency, and spectral filtering properties. Our theoretical results provide valuable insights into assessing the advantages and limitations of existing pairwise learning methods.
Principal component regression for crop yield estimation
Suryanarayana, T M V
2016-01-01
This book highlights the estimation of crop yield in Central Gujarat, especially with regard to the development of Multiple Regression Models and Principal Component Regression (PCR) models using climatological parameters as independent variables and crop yield as a dependent variable. It subsequently compares the multiple linear regression (MLR) and PCR results, and discusses the significance of PCR for crop yield estimation. In this context, the book also covers Principal Component Analysis (PCA), a statistical procedure used to reduce a number of correlated variables into a smaller number of uncorrelated variables called principal components (PC). This book will be helpful to the students and researchers, starting their works on climate and agriculture, mainly focussing on estimation models. The flow of chapters takes the readers in a smooth path, in understanding climate and weather and impact of climate change, and gradually proceeds towards downscaling techniques and then finally towards development of ...
Robust median estimator in logisitc regression
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Hobza, T.; Pardo, L.; Vajda, Igor
2008-01-01
Roč. 138, č. 12 (2008), s. 3822-3840 ISSN 0378-3758 R&D Projects: GA MŠk 1M0572 Grant - others:Instituto Nacional de Estadistica (ES) MPO FI - IM3/136; GA MŠk(CZ) MTM 2006-06872 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : Logistic regression * Median * Robustness * Consistency and asymptotic normality * Morgenthaler * Bianco and Yohai * Croux and Hasellbroeck Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 0.679, year: 2008 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2008/SI/vajda-robust%20median%20estimator%20in%20logistic%20regression.pdf
Forecasting Model for IPTV Service in Korea Using Bootstrap Ridge Regression Analysis
Lee, Byoung Chul; Kee, Seho; Kim, Jae Bum; Kim, Yun Bae
The telecom firms in Korea are taking new step to prepare for the next generation of convergence services, IPTV. In this paper we described our analysis on the effective method for demand forecasting about IPTV broadcasting. We have tried according to 3 types of scenarios based on some aspects of IPTV potential market and made a comparison among the results. The forecasting method used in this paper is the multi generation substitution model with bootstrap ridge regression analysis.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Sjöstrand, Karl; Cardenas, Valerie A.; Larsen, Rasmus
2008-01-01
regression to address this issue, allowing for a gradual introduction of correlation information into the model. We make the connections between ridge regression and voxel-wise procedures explicit and discuss relations to other statistical methods. Results are given on an in-vivo data set of deformation......Whole-brain morphometry denotes a group of methods with the aim of relating clinical and cognitive measurements to regions of the brain. Typically, such methods require the statistical analysis of a data set with many variables (voxels and exogenous variables) paired with few observations (subjects...
Sidik, S. M.
1975-01-01
Ridge, Marquardt's generalized inverse, shrunken, and principal components estimators are discussed in terms of the objectives of point estimation of parameters, estimation of the predictive regression function, and hypothesis testing. It is found that as the normal equations approach singularity, more consideration must be given to estimable functions of the parameters as opposed to estimation of the full parameter vector; that biased estimators all introduce constraints on the parameter space; that adoption of mean squared error as a criterion of goodness should be independent of the degree of singularity; and that ordinary least-squares subset regression is the best overall method.
Local Prediction Models on Mid-Atlantic Ridge MORB by Principal Component Regression
Ling, X.; Snow, J. E.; Chin, W.
2017-12-01
The isotopic compositions of the daughter isotopes of long-lived radioactive systems (Sr, Nd, Hf and Pb ) can be used to map the scale and history of mantle heterogeneities beneath mid-ocean ridges. Our goal is to relate the multidimensional structure in the existing isotopic dataset with an underlying physical reality of mantle sources. The numerical technique of Principal Component Analysis is useful to reduce the linear dependence of the data to a minimum set of orthogonal eigenvectors encapsulating the information contained (cf Agranier et al 2005). The dataset used for this study covers almost all the MORBs along mid-Atlantic Ridge (MAR), from 54oS to 77oN and 8.8oW to -46.7oW, including replicating the dataset of Agranier et al., 2005 published plus 53 basalt samples dredged and analyzed since then (data from PetDB). The principal components PC1 and PC2 account for 61.56% and 29.21%, respectively, of the total isotope ratios variability. The samples with similar compositions to HIMU and EM and DM are identified to better understand the PCs. PC1 and PC2 are accountable for HIMU and EM whereas PC2 has limited control over the DM source. PC3 is more strongly controlled by the depleted mantle source than PC2. What this means is that all three principal components have a high degree of significance relevant to the established mantle sources. We also tested the relationship between mantle heterogeneity and sample locality. K-means clustering algorithm is a type of unsupervised learning to find groups in the data based on feature similarity. The PC factor scores of each sample are clustered into three groups. Cluster one and three are alternating on the north and south MAR. Cluster two exhibits on 45.18oN to 0.79oN and -27.9oW to -30.40oW alternating with cluster one. The ridge has been preliminarily divided into 16 sections considering both the clusters and ridge segments. The principal component regression models the section based on 6 isotope ratios and PCs. The
Ridge regression for predicting elastic moduli and hardness of calcium aluminosilicate glasses
Deng, Yifan; Zeng, Huidan; Jiang, Yejia; Chen, Guorong; Chen, Jianding; Sun, Luyi
2018-03-01
It is of great significance to design glasses with satisfactory mechanical properties predictively through modeling. Among various modeling methods, data-driven modeling is such a reliable approach that can dramatically shorten research duration, cut research cost and accelerate the development of glass materials. In this work, the ridge regression (RR) analysis was used to construct regression models for predicting the compositional dependence of CaO-Al2O3-SiO2 glass elastic moduli (Shear, Bulk, and Young’s moduli) and hardness based on the ternary diagram of the compositions. The property prediction over a large glass composition space was accomplished with known experimental data of various compositions in the literature, and the simulated results are in good agreement with the measured ones. This regression model can serve as a facile and effective tool for studying the relationship between the compositions and the property, enabling high-efficient design of glasses to meet the requirements for specific elasticity and hardness.
Regression tools for CO2 inversions: application of a shrinkage estimator to process attribution
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Shaby, Benjamin A.; Field, Christopher B.
2006-01-01
In this study we perform an atmospheric inversion based on a shrinkage estimator. This method is used to estimate surface fluxes of CO 2 , first partitioned according to constituent geographic regions, and then according to constituent processes that are responsible for the total flux. Our approach differs from previous approaches in two important ways. The first is that the technique of linear Bayesian inversion is recast as a regression problem. Seen as such, standard regression tools are employed to analyse and reduce errors in the resultant estimates. A shrinkage estimator, which combines standard ridge regression with the linear 'Bayesian inversion' model, is introduced. This method introduces additional bias into the model with the aim of reducing variance such that errors are decreased overall. Compared with standard linear Bayesian inversion, the ridge technique seems to reduce both flux estimation errors and prediction errors. The second divergence from previous studies is that instead of dividing the world into geographically distinct regions and estimating the CO 2 flux in each region, the flux space is divided conceptually into processes that contribute to the total global flux. Formulating the problem in this manner adds to the interpretability of the resultant estimates and attempts to shed light on the problem of attributing sources and sinks to their underlying mechanisms
Ridge Regression and Other Kernels for Genomic Selection with R Package rrBLUP
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jeffrey B. Endelman
2011-11-01
Full Text Available Many important traits in plant breeding are polygenic and therefore recalcitrant to traditional marker-assisted selection. Genomic selection addresses this complexity by including all markers in the prediction model. A key method for the genomic prediction of breeding values is ridge regression (RR, which is equivalent to best linear unbiased prediction (BLUP when the genetic covariance between lines is proportional to their similarity in genotype space. This additive model can be broadened to include epistatic effects by using other kernels, such as the Gaussian, which represent inner products in a complex feature space. To facilitate the use of RR and nonadditive kernels in plant breeding, a new software package for R called rrBLUP has been developed. At its core is a fast maximum-likelihood algorithm for mixed models with a single variance component besides the residual error, which allows for efficient prediction with unreplicated training data. Use of the rrBLUP software is demonstrated through several examples, including the identification of optimal crosses based on superior progeny value. In cross-validation tests, the prediction accuracy with nonadditive kernels was significantly higher than RR for wheat ( L. grain yield but equivalent for several maize ( L. traits.
A logistic regression estimating function for spatial Gibbs point processes
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Baddeley, Adrian; Coeurjolly, Jean-François; Rubak, Ege
We propose a computationally efficient logistic regression estimating function for spatial Gibbs point processes. The sample points for the logistic regression consist of the observed point pattern together with a random pattern of dummy points. The estimating function is closely related to the p......We propose a computationally efficient logistic regression estimating function for spatial Gibbs point processes. The sample points for the logistic regression consist of the observed point pattern together with a random pattern of dummy points. The estimating function is closely related...
Efficient estimation of an additive quantile regression model
Cheng, Y.; de Gooijer, J.G.; Zerom, D.
2011-01-01
In this paper, two non-parametric estimators are proposed for estimating the components of an additive quantile regression model. The first estimator is a computationally convenient approach which can be viewed as a more viable alternative to existing kernel-based approaches. The second estimator
Ha, Min Jin; Sun, Wei
2014-09-01
Motivated by the problem of construction of gene co-expression network, we propose a statistical framework for estimating high-dimensional partial correlation matrix by a three-step approach. We first obtain a penalized estimate of a partial correlation matrix using ridge penalty. Next we select the non-zero entries of the partial correlation matrix by hypothesis testing. Finally we re-estimate the partial correlation coefficients at these non-zero entries. In the second step, the null distribution of the test statistics derived from penalized partial correlation estimates has not been established. We address this challenge by estimating the null distribution from the empirical distribution of the test statistics of all the penalized partial correlation estimates. Extensive simulation studies demonstrate the good performance of our method. Application on a yeast cell cycle gene expression data shows that our method delivers better predictions of the protein-protein interactions than the Graphic Lasso. © 2014, The International Biometric Society.
Efficient estimation of an additive quantile regression model
Cheng, Y.; de Gooijer, J.G.; Zerom, D.
2009-01-01
In this paper two kernel-based nonparametric estimators are proposed for estimating the components of an additive quantile regression model. The first estimator is a computationally convenient approach which can be viewed as a viable alternative to the method of De Gooijer and Zerom (2003). By
Efficient estimation of an additive quantile regression model
Cheng, Y.; de Gooijer, J.G.; Zerom, D.
2010-01-01
In this paper two kernel-based nonparametric estimators are proposed for estimating the components of an additive quantile regression model. The first estimator is a computationally convenient approach which can be viewed as a viable alternative to the method of De Gooijer and Zerom (2003). By
Learning a peptide-protein binding affinity predictor with kernel ridge regression
2013-01-01
Background The cellular function of a vast majority of proteins is performed through physical interactions with other biomolecules, which, most of the time, are other proteins. Peptides represent templates of choice for mimicking a secondary structure in order to modulate protein-protein interaction. They are thus an interesting class of therapeutics since they also display strong activity, high selectivity, low toxicity and few drug-drug interactions. Furthermore, predicting peptides that would bind to a specific MHC alleles would be of tremendous benefit to improve vaccine based therapy and possibly generate antibodies with greater affinity. Modern computational methods have the potential to accelerate and lower the cost of drug and vaccine discovery by selecting potential compounds for testing in silico prior to biological validation. Results We propose a specialized string kernel for small bio-molecules, peptides and pseudo-sequences of binding interfaces. The kernel incorporates physico-chemical properties of amino acids and elegantly generalizes eight kernels, comprised of the Oligo, the Weighted Degree, the Blended Spectrum, and the Radial Basis Function. We provide a low complexity dynamic programming algorithm for the exact computation of the kernel and a linear time algorithm for it’s approximation. Combined with kernel ridge regression and SupCK, a novel binding pocket kernel, the proposed kernel yields biologically relevant and good prediction accuracy on the PepX database. For the first time, a machine learning predictor is capable of predicting the binding affinity of any peptide to any protein with reasonable accuracy. The method was also applied to both single-target and pan-specific Major Histocompatibility Complex class II benchmark datasets and three Quantitative Structure Affinity Model benchmark datasets. Conclusion On all benchmarks, our method significantly (p-value ≤ 0.057) outperforms the current state-of-the-art methods at predicting
Parameters Estimation of Geographically Weighted Ordinal Logistic Regression (GWOLR) Model
Zuhdi, Shaifudin; Retno Sari Saputro, Dewi; Widyaningsih, Purnami
2017-06-01
A regression model is the representation of relationship between independent variable and dependent variable. The dependent variable has categories used in the logistic regression model to calculate odds on. The logistic regression model for dependent variable has levels in the logistics regression model is ordinal. GWOLR model is an ordinal logistic regression model influenced the geographical location of the observation site. Parameters estimation in the model needed to determine the value of a population based on sample. The purpose of this research is to parameters estimation of GWOLR model using R software. Parameter estimation uses the data amount of dengue fever patients in Semarang City. Observation units used are 144 villages in Semarang City. The results of research get GWOLR model locally for each village and to know probability of number dengue fever patient categories.
Estimating the exceedance probability of rain rate by logistic regression
Chiu, Long S.; Kedem, Benjamin
1990-01-01
Recent studies have shown that the fraction of an area with rain intensity above a fixed threshold is highly correlated with the area-averaged rain rate. To estimate the fractional rainy area, a logistic regression model, which estimates the conditional probability that rain rate over an area exceeds a fixed threshold given the values of related covariates, is developed. The problem of dependency in the data in the estimation procedure is bypassed by the method of partial likelihood. Analyses of simulated scanning multichannel microwave radiometer and observed electrically scanning microwave radiometer data during the Global Atlantic Tropical Experiment period show that the use of logistic regression in pixel classification is superior to multiple regression in predicting whether rain rate at each pixel exceeds a given threshold, even in the presence of noisy data. The potential of the logistic regression technique in satellite rain rate estimation is discussed.
Sparse reduced-rank regression with covariance estimation
Chen, Lisha
2014-12-08
Improving the predicting performance of the multiple response regression compared with separate linear regressions is a challenging question. On the one hand, it is desirable to seek model parsimony when facing a large number of parameters. On the other hand, for certain applications it is necessary to take into account the general covariance structure for the errors of the regression model. We assume a reduced-rank regression model and work with the likelihood function with general error covariance to achieve both objectives. In addition we propose to select relevant variables for reduced-rank regression by using a sparsity-inducing penalty, and to estimate the error covariance matrix simultaneously by using a similar penalty on the precision matrix. We develop a numerical algorithm to solve the penalized regression problem. In a simulation study and real data analysis, the new method is compared with two recent methods for multivariate regression and exhibits competitive performance in prediction and variable selection.
Sparse reduced-rank regression with covariance estimation
Chen, Lisha; Huang, Jianhua Z.
2014-01-01
Improving the predicting performance of the multiple response regression compared with separate linear regressions is a challenging question. On the one hand, it is desirable to seek model parsimony when facing a large number of parameters. On the other hand, for certain applications it is necessary to take into account the general covariance structure for the errors of the regression model. We assume a reduced-rank regression model and work with the likelihood function with general error covariance to achieve both objectives. In addition we propose to select relevant variables for reduced-rank regression by using a sparsity-inducing penalty, and to estimate the error covariance matrix simultaneously by using a similar penalty on the precision matrix. We develop a numerical algorithm to solve the penalized regression problem. In a simulation study and real data analysis, the new method is compared with two recent methods for multivariate regression and exhibits competitive performance in prediction and variable selection.
Independent contrasts and PGLS regression estimators are equivalent.
Blomberg, Simon P; Lefevre, James G; Wells, Jessie A; Waterhouse, Mary
2012-05-01
We prove that the slope parameter of the ordinary least squares regression of phylogenetically independent contrasts (PICs) conducted through the origin is identical to the slope parameter of the method of generalized least squares (GLSs) regression under a Brownian motion model of evolution. This equivalence has several implications: 1. Understanding the structure of the linear model for GLS regression provides insight into when and why phylogeny is important in comparative studies. 2. The limitations of the PIC regression analysis are the same as the limitations of the GLS model. In particular, phylogenetic covariance applies only to the response variable in the regression and the explanatory variable should be regarded as fixed. Calculation of PICs for explanatory variables should be treated as a mathematical idiosyncrasy of the PIC regression algorithm. 3. Since the GLS estimator is the best linear unbiased estimator (BLUE), the slope parameter estimated using PICs is also BLUE. 4. If the slope is estimated using different branch lengths for the explanatory and response variables in the PIC algorithm, the estimator is no longer the BLUE, so this is not recommended. Finally, we discuss whether or not and how to accommodate phylogenetic covariance in regression analyses, particularly in relation to the problem of phylogenetic uncertainty. This discussion is from both frequentist and Bayesian perspectives.
A flexible fuzzy regression algorithm for forecasting oil consumption estimation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Azadeh, A.; Khakestani, M.; Saberi, M.
2009-01-01
Oil consumption plays a vital role in socio-economic development of most countries. This study presents a flexible fuzzy regression algorithm for forecasting oil consumption based on standard economic indicators. The standard indicators are annual population, cost of crude oil import, gross domestic production (GDP) and annual oil production in the last period. The proposed algorithm uses analysis of variance (ANOVA) to select either fuzzy regression or conventional regression for future demand estimation. The significance of the proposed algorithm is three fold. First, it is flexible and identifies the best model based on the results of ANOVA and minimum absolute percentage error (MAPE), whereas previous studies consider the best fitted fuzzy regression model based on MAPE or other relative error results. Second, the proposed model may identify conventional regression as the best model for future oil consumption forecasting because of its dynamic structure, whereas previous studies assume that fuzzy regression always provide the best solutions and estimation. Third, it utilizes the most standard independent variables for the regression models. To show the applicability and superiority of the proposed flexible fuzzy regression algorithm the data for oil consumption in Canada, United States, Japan and Australia from 1990 to 2005 are used. The results show that the flexible algorithm provides accurate solution for oil consumption estimation problem. The algorithm may be used by policy makers to accurately foresee the behavior of oil consumption in various regions.
On the estimation and testing of predictive panel regressions
Karabiyik, H.; Westerlund, Joakim; Narayan, Paresh
2016-01-01
Hjalmarsson (2010) considers an OLS-based estimator of predictive panel regressions that is argued to be mixed normal under very general conditions. In a recent paper, Westerlund et al. (2016) show that while consistent, the estimator is generally not mixed normal, which invalidates standard normal
Parameter Estimation for Improving Association Indicators in Binary Logistic Regression
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mahdi Bashiri
2012-02-01
Full Text Available The aim of this paper is estimation of Binary logistic regression parameters for maximizing the log-likelihood function with improved association indicators. In this paper the parameter estimation steps have been explained and then measures of association have been introduced and their calculations have been analyzed. Moreover a new related indicators based on membership degree level have been expressed. Indeed association measures demonstrate the number of success responses occurred in front of failure in certain number of Bernoulli independent experiments. In parameter estimation, existing indicators values is not sensitive to the parameter values, whereas the proposed indicators are sensitive to the estimated parameters during the iterative procedure. Therefore, proposing a new association indicator of binary logistic regression with more sensitivity to the estimated parameters in maximizing the log- likelihood in iterative procedure is innovation of this study.
Small sample GEE estimation of regression parameters for longitudinal data.
Paul, Sudhir; Zhang, Xuemao
2014-09-28
Longitudinal (clustered) response data arise in many bio-statistical applications which, in general, cannot be assumed to be independent. Generalized estimating equation (GEE) is a widely used method to estimate marginal regression parameters for correlated responses. The advantage of the GEE is that the estimates of the regression parameters are asymptotically unbiased even if the correlation structure is misspecified, although their small sample properties are not known. In this paper, two bias adjusted GEE estimators of the regression parameters in longitudinal data are obtained when the number of subjects is small. One is based on a bias correction, and the other is based on a bias reduction. Simulations show that the performances of both the bias-corrected methods are similar in terms of bias, efficiency, coverage probability, average coverage length, impact of misspecification of correlation structure, and impact of cluster size on bias correction. Both these methods show superior properties over the GEE estimates for small samples. Further, analysis of data involving a small number of subjects also shows improvement in bias, MSE, standard error, and length of the confidence interval of the estimates by the two bias adjusted methods over the GEE estimates. For small to moderate sample sizes (N ≤50), either of the bias-corrected methods GEEBc and GEEBr can be used. However, the method GEEBc should be preferred over GEEBr, as the former is computationally easier. For large sample sizes, the GEE method can be used. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Performance of a New Restricted Biased Estimator in Logistic Regression
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yasin ASAR
2017-12-01
Full Text Available It is known that the variance of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE inflates when the explanatory variables are correlated. This situation is called the multicollinearity problem. As a result, the estimations of the model may not be trustful. Therefore, this paper introduces a new restricted estimator (RLTE that may be applied to get rid of the multicollinearity when the parameters lie in some linear subspace in logistic regression. The mean squared errors (MSE and the matrix mean squared errors (MMSE of the estimators considered in this paper are given. A Monte Carlo experiment is designed to evaluate the performances of the proposed estimator, the restricted MLE (RMLE, MLE and Liu-type estimator (LTE. The criterion of performance is chosen to be MSE. Moreover, a real data example is presented. According to the results, proposed estimator has better performance than MLE, RMLE and LTE.
Estimating monotonic rates from biological data using local linear regression.
Olito, Colin; White, Craig R; Marshall, Dustin J; Barneche, Diego R
2017-03-01
Accessing many fundamental questions in biology begins with empirical estimation of simple monotonic rates of underlying biological processes. Across a variety of disciplines, ranging from physiology to biogeochemistry, these rates are routinely estimated from non-linear and noisy time series data using linear regression and ad hoc manual truncation of non-linearities. Here, we introduce the R package LoLinR, a flexible toolkit to implement local linear regression techniques to objectively and reproducibly estimate monotonic biological rates from non-linear time series data, and demonstrate possible applications using metabolic rate data. LoLinR provides methods to easily and reliably estimate monotonic rates from time series data in a way that is statistically robust, facilitates reproducible research and is applicable to a wide variety of research disciplines in the biological sciences. © 2017. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.
On the robust nonparametric regression estimation for a functional regressor
Azzedine , Nadjia; Laksaci , Ali; Ould-Saïd , Elias
2009-01-01
On the robust nonparametric regression estimation for a functional regressor correspondance: Corresponding author. (Ould-Said, Elias) (Azzedine, Nadjia) (Laksaci, Ali) (Ould-Said, Elias) Departement de Mathematiques--> , Univ. Djillali Liabes--> , BP 89--> , 22000 Sidi Bel Abbes--> - ALGERIA (Azzedine, Nadjia) Departement de Mathema...
Two biased estimation techniques in linear regression: Application to aircraft
Klein, Vladislav
1988-01-01
Several ways for detection and assessment of collinearity in measured data are discussed. Because data collinearity usually results in poor least squares estimates, two estimation techniques which can limit a damaging effect of collinearity are presented. These two techniques, the principal components regression and mixed estimation, belong to a class of biased estimation techniques. Detection and assessment of data collinearity and the two biased estimation techniques are demonstrated in two examples using flight test data from longitudinal maneuvers of an experimental aircraft. The eigensystem analysis and parameter variance decomposition appeared to be a promising tool for collinearity evaluation. The biased estimators had far better accuracy than the results from the ordinary least squares technique.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Guo Junqiao
2008-09-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background The effects of climate variations on bacillary dysentery incidence have gained more recent concern. However, the multi-collinearity among meteorological factors affects the accuracy of correlation with bacillary dysentery incidence. Methods As a remedy, a modified method to combine ridge regression and hierarchical cluster analysis was proposed for investigating the effects of climate variations on bacillary dysentery incidence in northeast China. Results All weather indicators, temperatures, precipitation, evaporation and relative humidity have shown positive correlation with the monthly incidence of bacillary dysentery, while air pressure had a negative correlation with the incidence. Ridge regression and hierarchical cluster analysis showed that during 1987–1996, relative humidity, temperatures and air pressure affected the transmission of the bacillary dysentery. During this period, all meteorological factors were divided into three categories. Relative humidity and precipitation belonged to one class, temperature indexes and evaporation belonged to another class, and air pressure was the third class. Conclusion Meteorological factors have affected the transmission of bacillary dysentery in northeast China. Bacillary dysentery prevention and control would benefit from by giving more consideration to local climate variations.
Online and Batch Supervised Background Estimation via L1 Regression
Dutta, Aritra
2017-11-23
We propose a surprisingly simple model for supervised video background estimation. Our model is based on $\\\\ell_1$ regression. As existing methods for $\\\\ell_1$ regression do not scale to high-resolution videos, we propose several simple and scalable methods for solving the problem, including iteratively reweighted least squares, a homotopy method, and stochastic gradient descent. We show through extensive experiments that our model and methods match or outperform the state-of-the-art online and batch methods in virtually all quantitative and qualitative measures.
Online and Batch Supervised Background Estimation via L1 Regression
Dutta, Aritra; Richtarik, Peter
2017-01-01
We propose a surprisingly simple model for supervised video background estimation. Our model is based on $\\ell_1$ regression. As existing methods for $\\ell_1$ regression do not scale to high-resolution videos, we propose several simple and scalable methods for solving the problem, including iteratively reweighted least squares, a homotopy method, and stochastic gradient descent. We show through extensive experiments that our model and methods match or outperform the state-of-the-art online and batch methods in virtually all quantitative and qualitative measures.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Qiutong Jin
2016-06-01
Full Text Available Estimating the spatial distribution of precipitation is an important and challenging task in hydrology, climatology, ecology, and environmental science. In order to generate a highly accurate distribution map of average annual precipitation for the Loess Plateau in China, multiple linear regression Kriging (MLRK and geographically weighted regression Kriging (GWRK methods were employed using precipitation data from the period 1980–2010 from 435 meteorological stations. The predictors in regression Kriging were selected by stepwise regression analysis from many auxiliary environmental factors, such as elevation (DEM, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI, solar radiation, slope, and aspect. All predictor distribution maps had a 500 m spatial resolution. Validation precipitation data from 130 hydrometeorological stations were used to assess the prediction accuracies of the MLRK and GWRK approaches. Results showed that both prediction maps with a 500 m spatial resolution interpolated by MLRK and GWRK had a high accuracy and captured detailed spatial distribution data; however, MLRK produced a lower prediction error and a higher variance explanation than GWRK, although the differences were small, in contrast to conclusions from similar studies.
Optimized support vector regression for drilling rate of penetration estimation
Bodaghi, Asadollah; Ansari, Hamid Reza; Gholami, Mahsa
2015-12-01
In the petroleum industry, drilling optimization involves the selection of operating conditions for achieving the desired depth with the minimum expenditure while requirements of personal safety, environment protection, adequate information of penetrated formations and productivity are fulfilled. Since drilling optimization is highly dependent on the rate of penetration (ROP), estimation of this parameter is of great importance during well planning. In this research, a novel approach called `optimized support vector regression' is employed for making a formulation between input variables and ROP. Algorithms used for optimizing the support vector regression are the genetic algorithm (GA) and the cuckoo search algorithm (CS). Optimization implementation improved the support vector regression performance by virtue of selecting proper values for its parameters. In order to evaluate the ability of optimization algorithms in enhancing SVR performance, their results were compared to the hybrid of pattern search and grid search (HPG) which is conventionally employed for optimizing SVR. The results demonstrated that the CS algorithm achieved further improvement on prediction accuracy of SVR compared to the GA and HPG as well. Moreover, the predictive model derived from back propagation neural network (BPNN), which is the traditional approach for estimating ROP, is selected for comparisons with CSSVR. The comparative results revealed the superiority of CSSVR. This study inferred that CSSVR is a viable option for precise estimation of ROP.
Nonparametric Regression Estimation for Multivariate Null Recurrent Processes
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Biqing Cai
2015-04-01
Full Text Available This paper discusses nonparametric kernel regression with the regressor being a \\(d\\-dimensional \\(\\beta\\-null recurrent process in presence of conditional heteroscedasticity. We show that the mean function estimator is consistent with convergence rate \\(\\sqrt{n(Th^{d}}\\, where \\(n(T\\ is the number of regenerations for a \\(\\beta\\-null recurrent process and the limiting distribution (with proper normalization is normal. Furthermore, we show that the two-step estimator for the volatility function is consistent. The finite sample performance of the estimate is quite reasonable when the leave-one-out cross validation method is used for bandwidth selection. We apply the proposed method to study the relationship of Federal funds rate with 3-month and 5-year T-bill rates and discover the existence of nonlinearity of the relationship. Furthermore, the in-sample and out-of-sample performance of the nonparametric model is far better than the linear model.
Estimating Frequency by Interpolation Using Least Squares Support Vector Regression
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Changwei Ma
2015-01-01
Full Text Available Discrete Fourier transform- (DFT- based maximum likelihood (ML algorithm is an important part of single sinusoid frequency estimation. As signal to noise ratio (SNR increases and is above the threshold value, it will lie very close to Cramer-Rao lower bound (CRLB, which is dependent on the number of DFT points. However, its mean square error (MSE performance is directly proportional to its calculation cost. As a modified version of support vector regression (SVR, least squares SVR (LS-SVR can not only still keep excellent capabilities for generalizing and fitting but also exhibit lower computational complexity. In this paper, therefore, LS-SVR is employed to interpolate on Fourier coefficients of received signals and attain high frequency estimation accuracy. Our results show that the proposed algorithm can make a good compromise between calculation cost and MSE performance under the assumption that the sample size, number of DFT points, and resampling points are already known.
Estimation of adjusted rate differences using additive negative binomial regression.
Donoghoe, Mark W; Marschner, Ian C
2016-08-15
Rate differences are an important effect measure in biostatistics and provide an alternative perspective to rate ratios. When the data are event counts observed during an exposure period, adjusted rate differences may be estimated using an identity-link Poisson generalised linear model, also known as additive Poisson regression. A problem with this approach is that the assumption of equality of mean and variance rarely holds in real data, which often show overdispersion. An additive negative binomial model is the natural alternative to account for this; however, standard model-fitting methods are often unable to cope with the constrained parameter space arising from the non-negativity restrictions of the additive model. In this paper, we propose a novel solution to this problem using a variant of the expectation-conditional maximisation-either algorithm. Our method provides a reliable way to fit an additive negative binomial regression model and also permits flexible generalisations using semi-parametric regression functions. We illustrate the method using a placebo-controlled clinical trial of fenofibrate treatment in patients with type II diabetes, where the outcome is the number of laser therapy courses administered to treat diabetic retinopathy. An R package is available that implements the proposed method. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Some improved classification-based ridge parameter of Hoerl and ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Some improved classification-based ridge parameter of Hoerl and Kennard estimation techniques. ... This assumption is often violated and Ridge Regression estimator introduced by [2]has been identified to be more efficient than ordinary least square (OLS) in handling it. However, it requires a ridge parameter, K, of which ...
Genomic breeding value estimation using nonparametric additive regression models
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Solberg Trygve
2009-01-01
Full Text Available Abstract Genomic selection refers to the use of genomewide dense markers for breeding value estimation and subsequently for selection. The main challenge of genomic breeding value estimation is the estimation of many effects from a limited number of observations. Bayesian methods have been proposed to successfully cope with these challenges. As an alternative class of models, non- and semiparametric models were recently introduced. The present study investigated the ability of nonparametric additive regression models to predict genomic breeding values. The genotypes were modelled for each marker or pair of flanking markers (i.e. the predictors separately. The nonparametric functions for the predictors were estimated simultaneously using additive model theory, applying a binomial kernel. The optimal degree of smoothing was determined by bootstrapping. A mutation-drift-balance simulation was carried out. The breeding values of the last generation (genotyped was predicted using data from the next last generation (genotyped and phenotyped. The results show moderate to high accuracies of the predicted breeding values. A determination of predictor specific degree of smoothing increased the accuracy.
Image Jacobian Matrix Estimation Based on Online Support Vector Regression
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Shangqin Mao
2012-10-01
Full Text Available Research into robotics visual servoing is an important area in the field of robotics. It has proven difficult to achieve successful results for machine vision and robotics in unstructured environments without using any a priori camera or kinematic models. In uncalibrated visual servoing, image Jacobian matrix estimation methods can be divided into two groups: the online method and the offline method. The offline method is not appropriate for most natural environments. The online method is robust but rough. Moreover, if the images feature configuration changes, it needs to restart the approximating procedure. A novel approach based on an online support vector regression (OL-SVR algorithm is proposed which overcomes the drawbacks and combines the virtues just mentioned.
Regression and kriging analysis for grid power factor estimation
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Rajesh Guntaka
2014-12-01
Full Text Available The measurement of power factor (PF in electrical utility grids is a mainstay of load balancing and is also a critical element of transmission and distribution efficiency. The measurement of PF dates back to the earliest periods of electrical power distribution to public grids. In the wide-area distribution grid, measurement of current waveforms is trivial and may be accomplished at any point in the grid using a current tap transformer. However, voltage measurement requires reference to ground and so is more problematic and measurements are normally constrained to points that have ready and easy access to a ground source. We present two mathematical analysis methods based on kriging and linear least square estimation (LLSE (regression to derive PF at nodes with unknown voltages that are within a perimeter of sample nodes with ground reference across a selected power grid. Our results indicate an error average of 1.884% that is within acceptable tolerances for PF measurements that are used in load balancing tasks.
Efficient Smoothed Concomitant Lasso Estimation for High Dimensional Regression
Ndiaye, Eugene; Fercoq, Olivier; Gramfort, Alexandre; Leclère, Vincent; Salmon, Joseph
2017-10-01
In high dimensional settings, sparse structures are crucial for efficiency, both in term of memory, computation and performance. It is customary to consider ℓ 1 penalty to enforce sparsity in such scenarios. Sparsity enforcing methods, the Lasso being a canonical example, are popular candidates to address high dimension. For efficiency, they rely on tuning a parameter trading data fitting versus sparsity. For the Lasso theory to hold this tuning parameter should be proportional to the noise level, yet the latter is often unknown in practice. A possible remedy is to jointly optimize over the regression parameter as well as over the noise level. This has been considered under several names in the literature: Scaled-Lasso, Square-root Lasso, Concomitant Lasso estimation for instance, and could be of interest for uncertainty quantification. In this work, after illustrating numerical difficulties for the Concomitant Lasso formulation, we propose a modification we coined Smoothed Concomitant Lasso, aimed at increasing numerical stability. We propose an efficient and accurate solver leading to a computational cost no more expensive than the one for the Lasso. We leverage on standard ingredients behind the success of fast Lasso solvers: a coordinate descent algorithm, combined with safe screening rules to achieve speed efficiency, by eliminating early irrelevant features.
Jović, Ozren; Smrečki, Neven; Popović, Zora
2016-04-01
A novel quantitative prediction and variable selection method called interval ridge regression (iRR) is studied in this work. The method is performed on six data sets of FTIR, two data sets of UV-vis and one data set of DSC. The obtained results show that models built with ridge regression on optimal variables selected with iRR significantly outperfom models built with ridge regression on all variables in both calibration (6 out of 9 cases) and validation (2 out of 9 cases). In this study, iRR is also compared with interval partial least squares regression (iPLS). iRR outperfomed iPLS in validation (insignificantly in 6 out of 9 cases and significantly in one out of 9 cases for poil, a well known health beneficial nutrient, is studied in this work by mixing it with cheap and widely used oils such as soybean (So) oil, rapeseed (R) oil and sunflower (Su) oil. Binary mixture sets of hempseed oil with these three oils (HSo, HR and HSu) and a ternary mixture set of H oil, R oil and Su oil (HRSu) were considered. The obtained accuracy indicates that using iRR on FTIR and UV-vis data, each particular oil can be very successfully quantified (in all 8 cases RMSEPoil (R(2)>0.99). Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Partial Correlation Matrix Estimation using Ridge Penalty Followed by Thresholding and Reestimation
2014-01-01
Summary Motivated by the problem of construction gene co-expression network, we propose a statistical framework for estimating high-dimensional partial correlation matrix by a three-step approach. We first obtain a penalized estimate of a partial correlation matrix using ridge penalty. Next we select the non-zero entries of the partial correlation matrix by hypothesis testing. Finally we reestimate the partial correlation coefficients at these non-zero entries. In the second step, the null distribution of the test statistics derived from penalized partial correlation estimates has not been established. We address this challenge by estimating the null distribution from the empirical distribution of the test statistics of all the penalized partial correlation estimates. Extensive simulation studies demonstrate the good performance of our method. Application on a yeast cell cycle gene expression data shows that our method delivers better predictions of the protein-protein interactions than the Graphic Lasso. PMID:24845967
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Sharifzadeh, Sara; Skytte, Jacob Lercke; Nielsen, Otto Højager Attermann
2012-01-01
Statistical solutions find wide spread use in food and medicine quality control. We investigate the effect of different regression and sparse regression methods for a viscosity estimation problem using the spectro-temporal features from new Sub-Surface Laser Scattering (SLS) vision system. From...... with sparse LAR, lasso and Elastic Net (EN) sparse regression methods. Due to the inconsistent measurement condition, Locally Weighted Scatter plot Smoothing (Loess) has been employed to alleviate the undesired variation in the estimated viscosity. The experimental results of applying different methods show...
Bias in regression coefficient estimates upon different treatments of ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
MS and PW consistently overestimated the population parameter. EM and RI, on the other hand, tended to consistently underestimate the population parameter under non-monotonic pattern. Keywords: Missing data, bias, regression, percent missing, non-normality, missing pattern > East African Journal of Statistics Vol.
Hierarchical Matching and Regression with Application to Photometric Redshift Estimation
Murtagh, Fionn
2017-06-01
This work emphasizes that heterogeneity, diversity, discontinuity, and discreteness in data is to be exploited in classification and regression problems. A global a priori model may not be desirable. For data analytics in cosmology, this is motivated by the variety of cosmological objects such as elliptical, spiral, active, and merging galaxies at a wide range of redshifts. Our aim is matching and similarity-based analytics that takes account of discrete relationships in the data. The information structure of the data is represented by a hierarchy or tree where the branch structure, rather than just the proximity, is important. The representation is related to p-adic number theory. The clustering or binning of the data values, related to the precision of the measurements, has a central role in this methodology. If used for regression, our approach is a method of cluster-wise regression, generalizing nearest neighbour regression. Both to exemplify this analytics approach, and to demonstrate computational benefits, we address the well-known photometric redshift or `photo-z' problem, seeking to match Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) spectroscopic and photometric redshifts.
Stellar atmospheric parameter estimation using Gaussian process regression
Bu, Yude; Pan, Jingchang
2015-02-01
As is well known, it is necessary to derive stellar parameters from massive amounts of spectral data automatically and efficiently. However, in traditional automatic methods such as artificial neural networks (ANNs) and kernel regression (KR), it is often difficult to optimize the algorithm structure and determine the optimal algorithm parameters. Gaussian process regression (GPR) is a recently developed method that has been proven to be capable of overcoming these difficulties. Here we apply GPR to derive stellar atmospheric parameters from spectra. Through evaluating the performance of GPR on Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) spectra, Medium resolution Isaac Newton Telescope Library of Empirical Spectra (MILES) spectra, ELODIE spectra and the spectra of member stars of galactic globular clusters, we conclude that GPR can derive stellar parameters accurately and precisely, especially when we use data preprocessed with principal component analysis (PCA). We then compare the performance of GPR with that of several widely used regression methods (ANNs, support-vector regression and KR) and find that with GPR it is easier to optimize structures and parameters and more efficient and accurate to extract atmospheric parameters.
Estimation of Production KWS Maize Hybrids Using Nonlinear Regression
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Florica MORAR
2018-06-01
Full Text Available This article approaches the model of non-linear regression and the method of smallest squares with examples, including calculations for the model of logarithmic function. This required data obtained from a study which involved the observation of the phases of growth and development in KWS maize hybrids in order to analyze the influence of the MMB quality indicator on grain production per hectare.
Regularized Regression and Density Estimation based on Optimal Transport
Burger, M.; Franek, M.; Schonlieb, C.-B.
2012-01-01
for estimating densities and for preserving edges in the case of total variation regularization. In order to compute solutions of the variational problems, a regularized optimal transport problem needs to be solved, for which we discuss several formulations
Estimating life expectancies for US small areas: a regression framework
Congdon, Peter
2014-01-01
Analysis of area mortality variations and estimation of area life tables raise methodological questions relevant to assessing spatial clustering, and socioeconomic inequalities in mortality. Existing small area analyses of US life expectancy variation generally adopt ad hoc amalgamations of counties to alleviate potential instability of mortality rates involved in deriving life tables, and use conventional life table analysis which takes no account of correlated mortality for adjacent areas or ages. The alternative strategy here uses structured random effects methods that recognize correlations between adjacent ages and areas, and allows retention of the original county boundaries. This strategy generalizes to include effects of area category (e.g. poverty status, ethnic mix), allowing estimation of life tables according to area category, and providing additional stabilization of estimated life table functions. This approach is used here to estimate stabilized mortality rates, derive life expectancies in US counties, and assess trends in clustering and in inequality according to county poverty category.
Allelic drop-out probabilities estimated by logistic regression
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Tvedebrink, Torben; Eriksen, Poul Svante; Asplund, Maria
2012-01-01
We discuss the model for estimating drop-out probabilities presented by Tvedebrink et al. [7] and the concerns, that have been raised. The criticism of the model has demonstrated that the model is not perfect. However, the model is very useful for advanced forensic genetic work, where allelic drop-out...... is occurring. With this discussion, we hope to improve the drop-out model, so that it can be used for practical forensic genetics and stimulate further discussions. We discuss how to estimate drop-out probabilities when using a varying number of PCR cycles and other experimental conditions....
On the estimation of the degree of regression polynomial
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Toeroek, Cs.
1997-01-01
The mathematical functions most commonly used to model curvature in plots are polynomials. Generally, the higher the degree of the polynomial, the more complex is the trend that its graph can represent. We propose a new statistical-graphical approach based on the discrete projective transformation (DPT) to estimating the degree of polynomial that adequately describes the trend in the plot
Regularized Regression and Density Estimation based on Optimal Transport
Burger, M.
2012-03-11
The aim of this paper is to investigate a novel nonparametric approach for estimating and smoothing density functions as well as probability densities from discrete samples based on a variational regularization method with the Wasserstein metric as a data fidelity. The approach allows a unified treatment of discrete and continuous probability measures and is hence attractive for various tasks. In particular, the variational model for special regularization functionals yields a natural method for estimating densities and for preserving edges in the case of total variation regularization. In order to compute solutions of the variational problems, a regularized optimal transport problem needs to be solved, for which we discuss several formulations and provide a detailed analysis. Moreover, we compute special self-similar solutions for standard regularization functionals and we discuss several computational approaches and results. © 2012 The Author(s).
Nonparametric Estimation of Regression Parameters in Measurement Error Models
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Ehsanes Saleh, A.K.M.D.; Picek, J.; Kalina, Jan
2009-01-01
Roč. 67, č. 2 (2009), s. 177-200 ISSN 0026-1424 Grant - others:GA AV ČR(CZ) IAA101120801; GA MŠk(CZ) LC06024 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10300504 Keywords : asymptotic relative efficiency(ARE) * asymptotic theory * emaculate mode * Me model * R-estimation * Reliabilty ratio(RR) Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research
A SAS-macro for estimation of the cumulative incidence using Poisson regression
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Waltoft, Berit Lindum
2009-01-01
the hazard rates, and the hazard rates are often estimated by the Cox regression. This procedure may not be suitable for large studies due to limited computer resources. Instead one uses Poisson regression, which approximates the Cox regression. Rosthøj et al. presented a SAS-macro for the estimation...... of the cumulative incidences based on the Cox regression. I present the functional form of the probabilities and variances when using piecewise constant hazard rates and a SAS-macro for the estimation using Poisson regression. The use of the macro is demonstrated through examples and compared to the macro presented...
Estimation of degree of sea ice ridging based on dual-polarized C-band SAR data
Gegiuc, Alexandru; Similä, Markku; Karvonen, Juha; Lensu, Mikko; Mäkynen, Marko; Vainio, Jouni
2018-01-01
For ship navigation in the Baltic Sea ice, parameters such as ice edge, ice concentration, ice thickness and degree of ridging are usually reported daily in manually prepared ice charts. These charts provide icebreakers with essential information for route optimization and fuel calculations. However, manual ice charting requires long analysis times, and detailed analysis of large areas (e.g. Arctic Ocean) is not feasible. Here, we propose a method for automatic estimation of the degree of ice ridging in the Baltic Sea region, based on RADARSAT-2 C-band dual-polarized (HH/HV channels) SAR texture features and sea ice concentration information extracted from Finnish ice charts. The SAR images were first segmented and then several texture features were extracted for each segment. Using the random forest method, we classified them into four classes of ridging intensity and compared them to the reference data extracted from the digitized ice charts. The overall agreement between the ice-chart-based degree of ice ridging and the automated results varied monthly, being 83, 63 and 81 % in January, February and March 2013, respectively. The correspondence between the degree of ice ridging reported in the ice charts and the actual ridge density was validated with data collected during a field campaign in March 2011. In principle the method can be applied to the seasonal sea ice regime in the Arctic Ocean.
Yelland, Lisa N; Salter, Amy B; Ryan, Philip
2011-10-15
Modified Poisson regression, which combines a log Poisson regression model with robust variance estimation, is a useful alternative to log binomial regression for estimating relative risks. Previous studies have shown both analytically and by simulation that modified Poisson regression is appropriate for independent prospective data. This method is often applied to clustered prospective data, despite a lack of evidence to support its use in this setting. The purpose of this article is to evaluate the performance of the modified Poisson regression approach for estimating relative risks from clustered prospective data, by using generalized estimating equations to account for clustering. A simulation study is conducted to compare log binomial regression and modified Poisson regression for analyzing clustered data from intervention and observational studies. Both methods generally perform well in terms of bias, type I error, and coverage. Unlike log binomial regression, modified Poisson regression is not prone to convergence problems. The methods are contrasted by using example data sets from 2 large studies. The results presented in this article support the use of modified Poisson regression as an alternative to log binomial regression for analyzing clustered prospective data when clustering is taken into account by using generalized estimating equations.
Tightness of M-estimators for multiple linear regression in time series
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Johansen, Søren; Nielsen, Bent
We show tightness of a general M-estimator for multiple linear regression in time series. The positive criterion function for the M-estimator is assumed lower semi-continuous and sufficiently large for large argument: Particular cases are the Huber-skip and quantile regression. Tightness requires...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Liu, Shujie; Kawamoto, Taisuke; Morita, Osamu; Yoshinari, Kouichi; Honda, Hiroshi
2017-01-01
Chemical exposure often results in liver hypertrophy in animal tests, characterized by increased liver weight, hepatocellular hypertrophy, and/or cell proliferation. While most of these changes are considered adaptive responses, there is concern that they may be associated with carcinogenesis. In this study, we have employed a toxicogenomic approach using a logistic ridge regression model to identify genes responsible for liver hypertrophy and hypertrophic hepatocarcinogenesis and to develop a predictive model for assessing hypertrophy-inducing compounds. Logistic regression models have previously been used in the quantification of epidemiological risk factors. DNA microarray data from the Toxicogenomics Project-Genomics Assisted Toxicity Evaluation System were used to identify hypertrophy-related genes that are expressed differently in hypertrophy induced by carcinogens and non-carcinogens. Data were collected for 134 chemicals (72 non-hypertrophy-inducing chemicals, 27 hypertrophy-inducing non-carcinogenic chemicals, and 15 hypertrophy-inducing carcinogenic compounds). After applying logistic ridge regression analysis, 35 genes for liver hypertrophy (e.g., Acot1 and Abcc3) and 13 genes for hypertrophic hepatocarcinogenesis (e.g., Asns and Gpx2) were selected. The predictive models built using these genes were 94.8% and 82.7% accurate, respectively. Pathway analysis of the genes indicates that, aside from a xenobiotic metabolism-related pathway as an adaptive response for liver hypertrophy, amino acid biosynthesis and oxidative responses appear to be involved in hypertrophic hepatocarcinogenesis. Early detection and toxicogenomic characterization of liver hypertrophy using our models may be useful for predicting carcinogenesis. In addition, the identified genes provide novel insight into discrimination between adverse hypertrophy associated with carcinogenesis and adaptive hypertrophy in risk assessment. - Highlights: • Hypertrophy (H) and hypertrophic
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Liu, Shujie; Kawamoto, Taisuke; Morita, Osamu [R& D, Safety Science Research, Kao Corporation, Tochigi (Japan); Yoshinari, Kouichi [Department of Molecular Toxicology, School of Pharmaceutical Sciences, University of Shizuoka, Shizuoka (Japan); Honda, Hiroshi, E-mail: honda.hiroshi@kao.co.jp [R& D, Safety Science Research, Kao Corporation, Tochigi (Japan)
2017-03-01
Chemical exposure often results in liver hypertrophy in animal tests, characterized by increased liver weight, hepatocellular hypertrophy, and/or cell proliferation. While most of these changes are considered adaptive responses, there is concern that they may be associated with carcinogenesis. In this study, we have employed a toxicogenomic approach using a logistic ridge regression model to identify genes responsible for liver hypertrophy and hypertrophic hepatocarcinogenesis and to develop a predictive model for assessing hypertrophy-inducing compounds. Logistic regression models have previously been used in the quantification of epidemiological risk factors. DNA microarray data from the Toxicogenomics Project-Genomics Assisted Toxicity Evaluation System were used to identify hypertrophy-related genes that are expressed differently in hypertrophy induced by carcinogens and non-carcinogens. Data were collected for 134 chemicals (72 non-hypertrophy-inducing chemicals, 27 hypertrophy-inducing non-carcinogenic chemicals, and 15 hypertrophy-inducing carcinogenic compounds). After applying logistic ridge regression analysis, 35 genes for liver hypertrophy (e.g., Acot1 and Abcc3) and 13 genes for hypertrophic hepatocarcinogenesis (e.g., Asns and Gpx2) were selected. The predictive models built using these genes were 94.8% and 82.7% accurate, respectively. Pathway analysis of the genes indicates that, aside from a xenobiotic metabolism-related pathway as an adaptive response for liver hypertrophy, amino acid biosynthesis and oxidative responses appear to be involved in hypertrophic hepatocarcinogenesis. Early detection and toxicogenomic characterization of liver hypertrophy using our models may be useful for predicting carcinogenesis. In addition, the identified genes provide novel insight into discrimination between adverse hypertrophy associated with carcinogenesis and adaptive hypertrophy in risk assessment. - Highlights: • Hypertrophy (H) and hypertrophic
truncSP: An R Package for Estimation of Semi-Parametric Truncated Linear Regression Models
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Maria Karlsson
2014-05-01
Full Text Available Problems with truncated data occur in many areas, complicating estimation and inference. Regarding linear regression models, the ordinary least squares estimator is inconsistent and biased for these types of data and is therefore unsuitable for use. Alternative estimators, designed for the estimation of truncated regression models, have been developed. This paper presents the R package truncSP. The package contains functions for the estimation of semi-parametric truncated linear regression models using three different estimators: the symmetrically trimmed least squares, quadratic mode, and left truncated estimators, all of which have been shown to have good asymptotic and ?nite sample properties. The package also provides functions for the analysis of the estimated models. Data from the environmental sciences are used to illustrate the functions in the package.
Liu, Shujie; Kawamoto, Taisuke; Morita, Osamu; Yoshinari, Kouichi; Honda, Hiroshi
2017-03-01
Chemical exposure often results in liver hypertrophy in animal tests, characterized by increased liver weight, hepatocellular hypertrophy, and/or cell proliferation. While most of these changes are considered adaptive responses, there is concern that they may be associated with carcinogenesis. In this study, we have employed a toxicogenomic approach using a logistic ridge regression model to identify genes responsible for liver hypertrophy and hypertrophic hepatocarcinogenesis and to develop a predictive model for assessing hypertrophy-inducing compounds. Logistic regression models have previously been used in the quantification of epidemiological risk factors. DNA microarray data from the Toxicogenomics Project-Genomics Assisted Toxicity Evaluation System were used to identify hypertrophy-related genes that are expressed differently in hypertrophy induced by carcinogens and non-carcinogens. Data were collected for 134 chemicals (72 non-hypertrophy-inducing chemicals, 27 hypertrophy-inducing non-carcinogenic chemicals, and 15 hypertrophy-inducing carcinogenic compounds). After applying logistic ridge regression analysis, 35 genes for liver hypertrophy (e.g., Acot1 and Abcc3) and 13 genes for hypertrophic hepatocarcinogenesis (e.g., Asns and Gpx2) were selected. The predictive models built using these genes were 94.8% and 82.7% accurate, respectively. Pathway analysis of the genes indicates that, aside from a xenobiotic metabolism-related pathway as an adaptive response for liver hypertrophy, amino acid biosynthesis and oxidative responses appear to be involved in hypertrophic hepatocarcinogenesis. Early detection and toxicogenomic characterization of liver hypertrophy using our models may be useful for predicting carcinogenesis. In addition, the identified genes provide novel insight into discrimination between adverse hypertrophy associated with carcinogenesis and adaptive hypertrophy in risk assessment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Weibo Zhao
2017-12-01
Full Text Available Power generation industry is the key industry of carbon dioxide (CO2 emission in China. Assessing its future CO2 emissions is of great significance to the formulation and implementation of energy saving and emission reduction policies. Based on the Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence and Technology model (STIRPAT, the influencing factors analysis model of CO2 emission of power generation industry is established. The ridge regression (RR method is used to estimate the historical data. In addition, a wavelet neural network (WNN prediction model based on Cuckoo Search algorithm optimized by Gauss (GCS is put forward to predict the factors in the STIRPAT model. Then, the predicted values are substituted into the regression model, and the CO2 emission estimation values of the power generation industry in China are obtained. It’s concluded that population, per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP, standard coal consumption and thermal power specific gravity are the key factors affecting the CO2 emission from the power generation industry. Besides, the GCS-WNN prediction model has higher prediction accuracy, comparing with other models. Moreover, with the development of science and technology in the future, the CO2 emission growth in the power generation industry will gradually slow down according to the prediction results.
Krishan, Kewal; Kanchan, Tanuj; Sharma, Abhilasha
2012-05-01
Estimation of stature is an important parameter in identification of human remains in forensic examinations. The present study is aimed to compare the reliability and accuracy of stature estimation and to demonstrate the variability in estimated stature and actual stature using multiplication factor and regression analysis methods. The study is based on a sample of 246 subjects (123 males and 123 females) from North India aged between 17 and 20 years. Four anthropometric measurements; hand length, hand breadth, foot length and foot breadth taken on the left side in each subject were included in the study. Stature was measured using standard anthropometric techniques. Multiplication factors were calculated and linear regression models were derived for estimation of stature from hand and foot dimensions. Derived multiplication factors and regression formula were applied to the hand and foot measurements in the study sample. The estimated stature from the multiplication factors and regression analysis was compared with the actual stature to find the error in estimated stature. The results indicate that the range of error in estimation of stature from regression analysis method is less than that of multiplication factor method thus, confirming that the regression analysis method is better than multiplication factor analysis in stature estimation. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd and Faculty of Forensic and Legal Medicine. All rights reserved.
Estimating nonlinear selection gradients using quadratic regression coefficients: double or nothing?
Stinchcombe, John R; Agrawal, Aneil F; Hohenlohe, Paul A; Arnold, Stevan J; Blows, Mark W
2008-09-01
The use of regression analysis has been instrumental in allowing evolutionary biologists to estimate the strength and mode of natural selection. Although directional and correlational selection gradients are equal to their corresponding regression coefficients, quadratic regression coefficients must be doubled to estimate stabilizing/disruptive selection gradients. Based on a sample of 33 papers published in Evolution between 2002 and 2007, at least 78% of papers have not doubled quadratic regression coefficients, leading to an appreciable underestimate of the strength of stabilizing and disruptive selection. Proper treatment of quadratic regression coefficients is necessary for estimation of fitness surfaces and contour plots, canonical analysis of the gamma matrix, and modeling the evolution of populations on an adaptive landscape.
Variability of footprint ridge density and its use in estimation of sex in forensic examinations.
Krishan, Kewal; Kanchan, Tanuj; Pathania, Annu; Sharma, Ruchika; DiMaggio, John A
2015-10-01
The present study deals with a comparatively new biometric parameter of footprints called footprint ridge density. The study attempts to evaluate sex-dependent variations in ridge density in different areas of the footprint and its usefulness in discriminating sex in the young adult population of north India. The sample for the study consisted of 160 young adults (121 females) from north India. The left and right footprints were taken from each subject according to the standard procedures. The footprints were analysed using a 5 mm × 5 mm square and the ridge density was calculated in four different well-defined areas of the footprints. These were: F1 - the great toe on its proximal and medial side; F2 - the medial ball of the footprint, below the triradius (the triradius is a Y-shaped group of ridges on finger balls, palms and soles which forms the basis of ridge counting in identification); F3 - the lateral ball of the footprint, towards the most lateral part; and F4 - the heel in its central part where the maximum breadth at heel is cut by a perpendicular line drawn from the most posterior point on heel. This value represents the number of ridges in a 25 mm(2) area and reflects the ridge density value. Ridge densities analysed on different areas of footprints were compared with each other using the Friedman test for related samples. The total footprint ridge density was calculated as the sum of the ridge density in the four areas of footprints included in the study (F1 + F2 + F3 + F4). The results show that the mean footprint ridge density was higher in females than males in all the designated areas of the footprints. The sex differences in footprint ridge density were observed to be statistically significant in the analysed areas of the footprint, except for the heel region of the left footprint. The total footprint ridge density was also observed to be significantly higher among females than males. A statistically significant correlation
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Population-based estimates of pesticide intake are needed to characterize exposure for particular demographic groups based on their dietary behaviors. Regression...
Simultaneous Estimation of Regression Functions for Marine Corps Technical Training Specialties.
Dunbar, Stephen B.; And Others
This paper considers the application of Bayesian techniques for simultaneous estimation to the specification of regression weights for selection tests used in various technical training courses in the Marine Corps. Results of a method for m-group regression developed by Molenaar and Lewis (1979) suggest that common weights for training courses…
Sparling, D.W.; Barzen, J.A.; Lovvorn, J.R.; Serie, J.R.
1992-01-01
Regression equations that use mensural data to estimate body condition have been developed for several water birds. These equations often have been based on data that represent different sexes, age classes, or seasons, without being adequately tested for intergroup differences. We used proximate carcass analysis of 538 adult and juvenile canvasbacks (Aythya valisineria ) collected during fall migration, winter, and spring migrations in 1975-76 and 1982-85 to test regression methods for estimating body condition.
Ding, A Adam; Wu, Hulin
2014-10-01
We propose a new method to use a constrained local polynomial regression to estimate the unknown parameters in ordinary differential equation models with a goal of improving the smoothing-based two-stage pseudo-least squares estimate. The equation constraints are derived from the differential equation model and are incorporated into the local polynomial regression in order to estimate the unknown parameters in the differential equation model. We also derive the asymptotic bias and variance of the proposed estimator. Our simulation studies show that our new estimator is clearly better than the pseudo-least squares estimator in estimation accuracy with a small price of computational cost. An application example on immune cell kinetics and trafficking for influenza infection further illustrates the benefits of the proposed new method.
[Evaluation of estimation of prevalence ratio using bayesian log-binomial regression model].
Gao, W L; Lin, H; Liu, X N; Ren, X W; Li, J S; Shen, X P; Zhu, S L
2017-03-10
To evaluate the estimation of prevalence ratio ( PR ) by using bayesian log-binomial regression model and its application, we estimated the PR of medical care-seeking prevalence to caregivers' recognition of risk signs of diarrhea in their infants by using bayesian log-binomial regression model in Openbugs software. The results showed that caregivers' recognition of infant' s risk signs of diarrhea was associated significantly with a 13% increase of medical care-seeking. Meanwhile, we compared the differences in PR 's point estimation and its interval estimation of medical care-seeking prevalence to caregivers' recognition of risk signs of diarrhea and convergence of three models (model 1: not adjusting for the covariates; model 2: adjusting for duration of caregivers' education, model 3: adjusting for distance between village and township and child month-age based on model 2) between bayesian log-binomial regression model and conventional log-binomial regression model. The results showed that all three bayesian log-binomial regression models were convergence and the estimated PRs were 1.130(95 %CI : 1.005-1.265), 1.128(95 %CI : 1.001-1.264) and 1.132(95 %CI : 1.004-1.267), respectively. Conventional log-binomial regression model 1 and model 2 were convergence and their PRs were 1.130(95 % CI : 1.055-1.206) and 1.126(95 % CI : 1.051-1.203), respectively, but the model 3 was misconvergence, so COPY method was used to estimate PR , which was 1.125 (95 %CI : 1.051-1.200). In addition, the point estimation and interval estimation of PRs from three bayesian log-binomial regression models differed slightly from those of PRs from conventional log-binomial regression model, but they had a good consistency in estimating PR . Therefore, bayesian log-binomial regression model can effectively estimate PR with less misconvergence and have more advantages in application compared with conventional log-binomial regression model.
Estimation of Panel Data Regression Models with Two-Sided Censoring or Truncation
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Alan, Sule; Honore, Bo E.; Hu, Luojia
2014-01-01
This paper constructs estimators for panel data regression models with individual speci…fic heterogeneity and two–sided censoring and truncation. Following Powell (1986) the estimation strategy is based on moment conditions constructed from re–censored or re–truncated residuals. While these moment...
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Petersen, Jørgen Holm
2016-01-01
This paper describes a new approach to the estimation in a logistic regression model with two crossed random effects where special interest is in estimating the variance of one of the effects while not making distributional assumptions about the other effect. A composite likelihood is studied...
Asymptotic normality of kernel estimator of $\\psi$-regression function for functional ergodic data
Laksaci ALI; Benziadi Fatima; Gheriballak Abdelkader
2016-01-01
In this paper we consider the problem of the estimation of the $\\psi$-regression function when the covariates take values in an infinite dimensional space. Our main aim is to establish, under a stationary ergodic process assumption, the asymptotic normality of this estimate.
Estimation Methods for Non-Homogeneous Regression - Minimum CRPS vs Maximum Likelihood
Gebetsberger, Manuel; Messner, Jakob W.; Mayr, Georg J.; Zeileis, Achim
2017-04-01
Non-homogeneous regression models are widely used to statistically post-process numerical weather prediction models. Such regression models correct for errors in mean and variance and are capable to forecast a full probability distribution. In order to estimate the corresponding regression coefficients, CRPS minimization is performed in many meteorological post-processing studies since the last decade. In contrast to maximum likelihood estimation, CRPS minimization is claimed to yield more calibrated forecasts. Theoretically, both scoring rules used as an optimization score should be able to locate a similar and unknown optimum. Discrepancies might result from a wrong distributional assumption of the observed quantity. To address this theoretical concept, this study compares maximum likelihood and minimum CRPS estimation for different distributional assumptions. First, a synthetic case study shows that, for an appropriate distributional assumption, both estimation methods yield to similar regression coefficients. The log-likelihood estimator is slightly more efficient. A real world case study for surface temperature forecasts at different sites in Europe confirms these results but shows that surface temperature does not always follow the classical assumption of a Gaussian distribution. KEYWORDS: ensemble post-processing, maximum likelihood estimation, CRPS minimization, probabilistic temperature forecasting, distributional regression models
The importance of the chosen technique to estimate diffuse solar radiation by means of regression
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Arslan, Talha; Altyn Yavuz, Arzu [Department of Statistics. Science and Literature Faculty. Eskisehir Osmangazi University (Turkey)], email: mtarslan@ogu.edu.tr, email: aaltin@ogu.edu.tr; Acikkalp, Emin [Department of Mechanical and Manufacturing Engineering. Engineering Faculty. Bilecik University (Turkey)], email: acikkalp@gmail.com
2011-07-01
The Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method is one of the most frequently used for estimation of diffuse solar radiation. The data set must provide certain assumptions for the OLS method to work. The most important is that the regression equation offered by OLS error terms must fit within the normal distribution. Utilizing an alternative robust estimator to get parameter estimations is highly effective in solving problems where there is a lack of normal distribution due to the presence of outliers or some other factor. The purpose of this study is to investigate the value of the chosen technique for the estimation of diffuse radiation. This study described alternative robust methods frequently used in applications and compared them with the OLS method. Making a comparison of the data set analysis of the OLS and that of the M Regression (Huber, Andrews and Tukey) techniques, it was study found that robust regression techniques are preferable to OLS because of the smoother explanation values.
Dai, Wenlin; Tong, Tiejun; Zhu, Lixing
2017-01-01
Difference-based methods do not require estimating the mean function in nonparametric regression and are therefore popular in practice. In this paper, we propose a unified framework for variance estimation that combines the linear regression method with the higher-order difference estimators systematically. The unified framework has greatly enriched the existing literature on variance estimation that includes most existing estimators as special cases. More importantly, the unified framework has also provided a smart way to solve the challenging difference sequence selection problem that remains a long-standing controversial issue in nonparametric regression for several decades. Using both theory and simulations, we recommend to use the ordinary difference sequence in the unified framework, no matter if the sample size is small or if the signal-to-noise ratio is large. Finally, to cater for the demands of the application, we have developed a unified R package, named VarED, that integrates the existing difference-based estimators and the unified estimators in nonparametric regression and have made it freely available in the R statistical program http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/.
Robust estimation for homoscedastic regression in the secondary analysis of case-control data
Wei, Jiawei
2012-12-04
Primary analysis of case-control studies focuses on the relationship between disease D and a set of covariates of interest (Y, X). A secondary application of the case-control study, which is often invoked in modern genetic epidemiologic association studies, is to investigate the interrelationship between the covariates themselves. The task is complicated owing to the case-control sampling, where the regression of Y on X is different from what it is in the population. Previous work has assumed a parametric distribution for Y given X and derived semiparametric efficient estimation and inference without any distributional assumptions about X. We take up the issue of estimation of a regression function when Y given X follows a homoscedastic regression model, but otherwise the distribution of Y is unspecified. The semiparametric efficient approaches can be used to construct semiparametric efficient estimates, but they suffer from a lack of robustness to the assumed model for Y given X. We take an entirely different approach. We show how to estimate the regression parameters consistently even if the assumed model for Y given X is incorrect, and thus the estimates are model robust. For this we make the assumption that the disease rate is known or well estimated. The assumption can be dropped when the disease is rare, which is typically so for most case-control studies, and the estimation algorithm simplifies. Simulations and empirical examples are used to illustrate the approach.
Dai, Wenlin
2017-09-01
Difference-based methods do not require estimating the mean function in nonparametric regression and are therefore popular in practice. In this paper, we propose a unified framework for variance estimation that combines the linear regression method with the higher-order difference estimators systematically. The unified framework has greatly enriched the existing literature on variance estimation that includes most existing estimators as special cases. More importantly, the unified framework has also provided a smart way to solve the challenging difference sequence selection problem that remains a long-standing controversial issue in nonparametric regression for several decades. Using both theory and simulations, we recommend to use the ordinary difference sequence in the unified framework, no matter if the sample size is small or if the signal-to-noise ratio is large. Finally, to cater for the demands of the application, we have developed a unified R package, named VarED, that integrates the existing difference-based estimators and the unified estimators in nonparametric regression and have made it freely available in the R statistical program http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/.
Robust estimation for homoscedastic regression in the secondary analysis of case-control data
Wei, Jiawei; Carroll, Raymond J.; Mü ller, Ursula U.; Keilegom, Ingrid Van; Chatterjee, Nilanjan
2012-01-01
Primary analysis of case-control studies focuses on the relationship between disease D and a set of covariates of interest (Y, X). A secondary application of the case-control study, which is often invoked in modern genetic epidemiologic association studies, is to investigate the interrelationship between the covariates themselves. The task is complicated owing to the case-control sampling, where the regression of Y on X is different from what it is in the population. Previous work has assumed a parametric distribution for Y given X and derived semiparametric efficient estimation and inference without any distributional assumptions about X. We take up the issue of estimation of a regression function when Y given X follows a homoscedastic regression model, but otherwise the distribution of Y is unspecified. The semiparametric efficient approaches can be used to construct semiparametric efficient estimates, but they suffer from a lack of robustness to the assumed model for Y given X. We take an entirely different approach. We show how to estimate the regression parameters consistently even if the assumed model for Y given X is incorrect, and thus the estimates are model robust. For this we make the assumption that the disease rate is known or well estimated. The assumption can be dropped when the disease is rare, which is typically so for most case-control studies, and the estimation algorithm simplifies. Simulations and empirical examples are used to illustrate the approach.
Estimating integrated variance in the presence of microstructure noise using linear regression
Holý, Vladimír
2017-07-01
Using financial high-frequency data for estimation of integrated variance of asset prices is beneficial but with increasing number of observations so-called microstructure noise occurs. This noise can significantly bias the realized variance estimator. We propose a method for estimation of the integrated variance robust to microstructure noise as well as for testing the presence of the noise. Our method utilizes linear regression in which realized variances estimated from different data subsamples act as dependent variable while the number of observations act as explanatory variable. We compare proposed estimator with other methods on simulated data for several microstructure noise structures.
Regression estimators for generic health-related quality of life and quality-adjusted life years.
Basu, Anirban; Manca, Andrea
2012-01-01
To develop regression models for outcomes with truncated supports, such as health-related quality of life (HRQoL) data, and account for features typical of such data such as a skewed distribution, spikes at 1 or 0, and heteroskedasticity. Regression estimators based on features of the Beta distribution. First, both a single equation and a 2-part model are presented, along with estimation algorithms based on maximum-likelihood, quasi-likelihood, and Bayesian Markov-chain Monte Carlo methods. A novel Bayesian quasi-likelihood estimator is proposed. Second, a simulation exercise is presented to assess the performance of the proposed estimators against ordinary least squares (OLS) regression for a variety of HRQoL distributions that are encountered in practice. Finally, the performance of the proposed estimators is assessed by using them to quantify the treatment effect on QALYs in the EVALUATE hysterectomy trial. Overall model fit is studied using several goodness-of-fit tests such as Pearson's correlation test, link and reset tests, and a modified Hosmer-Lemeshow test. The simulation results indicate that the proposed methods are more robust in estimating covariate effects than OLS, especially when the effects are large or the HRQoL distribution has a large spike at 1. Quasi-likelihood techniques are more robust than maximum likelihood estimators. When applied to the EVALUATE trial, all but the maximum likelihood estimators produce unbiased estimates of the treatment effect. One and 2-part Beta regression models provide flexible approaches to regress the outcomes with truncated supports, such as HRQoL, on covariates, after accounting for many idiosyncratic features of the outcomes distribution. This work will provide applied researchers with a practical set of tools to model outcomes in cost-effectiveness analysis.
Height and Weight Estimation From Anthropometric Measurements Using Machine Learning Regressions.
Rativa, Diego; Fernandes, Bruno J T; Roque, Alexandre
2018-01-01
Height and weight are measurements explored to tracking nutritional diseases, energy expenditure, clinical conditions, drug dosages, and infusion rates. Many patients are not ambulant or may be unable to communicate, and a sequence of these factors may not allow accurate estimation or measurements; in those cases, it can be estimated approximately by anthropometric means. Different groups have proposed different linear or non-linear equations which coefficients are obtained by using single or multiple linear regressions. In this paper, we present a complete study of the application of different learning models to estimate height and weight from anthropometric measurements: support vector regression, Gaussian process, and artificial neural networks. The predicted values are significantly more accurate than that obtained with conventional linear regressions. In all the cases, the predictions are non-sensitive to ethnicity, and to gender, if more than two anthropometric parameters are analyzed. The learning model analysis creates new opportunities for anthropometric applications in industry, textile technology, security, and health care.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lang, Corey; Siler, Matthew
2013-01-01
Energy efficiency upgrades have been gaining widespread attention across global channels as a cost-effective approach to addressing energy challenges. The cost-effectiveness of these projects is generally predicted using engineering estimates pre-implementation, often with little ex post analysis of project success. In this paper, for a suite of energy efficiency projects, we directly compare ex ante engineering estimates of energy savings to ex post econometric estimates that use 15-min interval, building-level energy consumption data. In contrast to most prior literature, our econometric results confirm the engineering estimates, even suggesting the engineering estimates were too modest. Further, we find heterogeneous efficiency impacts by time of day, suggesting select efficiency projects can be useful in reducing peak load. - Highlights: • Regression discontinuity used to estimate energy savings from efficiency projects. • Ex post econometric estimates validate ex ante engineering estimates of energy savings. • Select efficiency projects shown to reduce peak load
Identification performance of evidential value estimation for ridge-based biometrics
Kotzerke, Johannes; Hao, Hao; Davis, Stephen A.; Hayes, Robert; Spreeuwers, Lieuwe Jan; Veldhuis, Raymond N.J.; Horadam, K.J.
2016-01-01
Law enforcement agencies around the world use ridge-based biometrics, especially fingerprints, to fight crime. Fingermarks that are left at a crime scene and identified as potentially having evidential value (EV) in a court of law are recorded for further forensic analysis. Here, we test our
Islamiyati, A.; Fatmawati; Chamidah, N.
2018-03-01
The correlation assumption of the longitudinal data with bi-response occurs on the measurement between the subjects of observation and the response. It causes the auto-correlation of error, and this can be overcome by using a covariance matrix. In this article, we estimate the covariance matrix based on the penalized spline regression model. Penalized spline involves knot points and smoothing parameters simultaneously in controlling the smoothness of the curve. Based on our simulation study, the estimated regression model of the weighted penalized spline with covariance matrix gives a smaller error value compared to the error of the model without covariance matrix.
Generalized allometric regression to estimate biomass of Populus in short-rotation coppice
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Ben Brahim, Mohammed; Gavaland, Andre; Cabanettes, Alain [INRA Centre de Toulouse, Castanet-Tolosane Cedex (France). Unite Agroforesterie et Foret Paysanne
2000-07-01
Data from four different stands were combined to establish a single generalized allometric equation to estimate above-ground biomass of individual Populus trees grown on short-rotation coppice. The generalized model was performed using diameter at breast height, the mean diameter and the mean height of each site as dependent variables and then compared with the stand-specific regressions using F-test. Results showed that this single regression estimates tree biomass well at each stand and does not introduce bias with increasing diameter.
Robust best linear estimation for regression analysis using surrogate and instrumental variables.
Wang, C Y
2012-04-01
We investigate methods for regression analysis when covariates are measured with errors. In a subset of the whole cohort, a surrogate variable is available for the true unobserved exposure variable. The surrogate variable satisfies the classical measurement error model, but it may not have repeated measurements. In addition to the surrogate variables that are available among the subjects in the calibration sample, we assume that there is an instrumental variable (IV) that is available for all study subjects. An IV is correlated with the unobserved true exposure variable and hence can be useful in the estimation of the regression coefficients. We propose a robust best linear estimator that uses all the available data, which is the most efficient among a class of consistent estimators. The proposed estimator is shown to be consistent and asymptotically normal under very weak distributional assumptions. For Poisson or linear regression, the proposed estimator is consistent even if the measurement error from the surrogate or IV is heteroscedastic. Finite-sample performance of the proposed estimator is examined and compared with other estimators via intensive simulation studies. The proposed method and other methods are applied to a bladder cancer case-control study.
On the degrees of freedom of reduced-rank estimators in multivariate regression.
Mukherjee, A; Chen, K; Wang, N; Zhu, J
We study the effective degrees of freedom of a general class of reduced-rank estimators for multivariate regression in the framework of Stein's unbiased risk estimation. A finite-sample exact unbiased estimator is derived that admits a closed-form expression in terms of the thresholded singular values of the least-squares solution and hence is readily computable. The results continue to hold in the high-dimensional setting where both the predictor and the response dimensions may be larger than the sample size. The derived analytical form facilitates the investigation of theoretical properties and provides new insights into the empirical behaviour of the degrees of freedom. In particular, we examine the differences and connections between the proposed estimator and a commonly-used naive estimator. The use of the proposed estimator leads to efficient and accurate prediction risk estimation and model selection, as demonstrated by simulation studies and a data example.
Brillouin Scattering Spectrum Analysis Based on Auto-Regressive Spectral Estimation
Huang, Mengyun; Li, Wei; Liu, Zhangyun; Cheng, Linghao; Guan, Bai-Ou
2018-06-01
Auto-regressive (AR) spectral estimation technology is proposed to analyze the Brillouin scattering spectrum in Brillouin optical time-domain refelectometry. It shows that AR based method can reliably estimate the Brillouin frequency shift with an accuracy much better than fast Fourier transform (FFT) based methods provided the data length is not too short. It enables about 3 times improvement over FFT at a moderate spatial resolution.
Brillouin Scattering Spectrum Analysis Based on Auto-Regressive Spectral Estimation
Huang, Mengyun; Li, Wei; Liu, Zhangyun; Cheng, Linghao; Guan, Bai-Ou
2018-03-01
Auto-regressive (AR) spectral estimation technology is proposed to analyze the Brillouin scattering spectrum in Brillouin optical time-domain refelectometry. It shows that AR based method can reliably estimate the Brillouin frequency shift with an accuracy much better than fast Fourier transform (FFT) based methods provided the data length is not too short. It enables about 3 times improvement over FFT at a moderate spatial resolution.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Danang Ariyanto
2017-11-01
Full Text Available Regression is a method connected independent variable and dependent variable with estimation parameter as an output. Principal problem in this method is its application in spatial data. Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR method used to solve the problem. GWR is a regression technique that extends the traditional regression framework by allowing the estimation of local rather than global parameters. In other words, GWR runs a regression for each location, instead of a sole regression for the entire study area. The purpose of this research is to analyze the factors influencing wet land paddy productivities in Tulungagung Regency. The methods used in this research is GWR using cross validation bandwidth and weighted by adaptive Gaussian kernel fungtion.This research using 4 variables which are presumed affecting the wet land paddy productivities such as: the rate of rainfall(X1, the average cost of fertilizer per hectare(X2, the average cost of pestisides per hectare(X3 and Allocation of subsidized NPK fertilizer of food crops sub-sector(X4. Based on the result, X1, X2, X3 and X4 has a different effect on each Distric. So, to improve the productivity of wet land paddy in Tulungagung Regency required a special policy based on the GWR model in each distric.
Amalia, Junita; Purhadi, Otok, Bambang Widjanarko
2017-11-01
Poisson distribution is a discrete distribution with count data as the random variables and it has one parameter defines both mean and variance. Poisson regression assumes mean and variance should be same (equidispersion). Nonetheless, some case of the count data unsatisfied this assumption because variance exceeds mean (over-dispersion). The ignorance of over-dispersion causes underestimates in standard error. Furthermore, it causes incorrect decision in the statistical test. Previously, paired count data has a correlation and it has bivariate Poisson distribution. If there is over-dispersion, modeling paired count data is not sufficient with simple bivariate Poisson regression. Bivariate Poisson Inverse Gaussian Regression (BPIGR) model is mix Poisson regression for modeling paired count data within over-dispersion. BPIGR model produces a global model for all locations. In another hand, each location has different geographic conditions, social, cultural and economic so that Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) is needed. The weighting function of each location in GWR generates a different local model. Geographically Weighted Bivariate Poisson Inverse Gaussian Regression (GWBPIGR) model is used to solve over-dispersion and to generate local models. Parameter estimation of GWBPIGR model obtained by Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) method. Meanwhile, hypothesis testing of GWBPIGR model acquired by Maximum Likelihood Ratio Test (MLRT) method.
Estimating traffic volume on Wyoming low volume roads using linear and logistic regression methods
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Dick Apronti
2016-12-01
Full Text Available Traffic volume is an important parameter in most transportation planning applications. Low volume roads make up about 69% of road miles in the United States. Estimating traffic on the low volume roads is a cost-effective alternative to taking traffic counts. This is because traditional traffic counts are expensive and impractical for low priority roads. The purpose of this paper is to present the development of two alternative means of cost-effectively estimating traffic volumes for low volume roads in Wyoming and to make recommendations for their implementation. The study methodology involves reviewing existing studies, identifying data sources, and carrying out the model development. The utility of the models developed were then verified by comparing actual traffic volumes to those predicted by the model. The study resulted in two regression models that are inexpensive and easy to implement. The first regression model was a linear regression model that utilized pavement type, access to highways, predominant land use types, and population to estimate traffic volume. In verifying the model, an R2 value of 0.64 and a root mean square error of 73.4% were obtained. The second model was a logistic regression model that identified the level of traffic on roads using five thresholds or levels. The logistic regression model was verified by estimating traffic volume thresholds and determining the percentage of roads that were accurately classified as belonging to the given thresholds. For the five thresholds, the percentage of roads classified correctly ranged from 79% to 88%. In conclusion, the verification of the models indicated both model types to be useful for accurate and cost-effective estimation of traffic volumes for low volume Wyoming roads. The models developed were recommended for use in traffic volume estimations for low volume roads in pavement management and environmental impact assessment studies.
Huang, C.; Townshend, J.R.G.
2003-01-01
A stepwise regression tree (SRT) algorithm was developed for approximating complex nonlinear relationships. Based on the regression tree of Breiman et al . (BRT) and a stepwise linear regression (SLR) method, this algorithm represents an improvement over SLR in that it can approximate nonlinear relationships and over BRT in that it gives more realistic predictions. The applicability of this method to estimating subpixel forest was demonstrated using three test data sets, on all of which it gave more accurate predictions than SLR and BRT. SRT also generated more compact trees and performed better than or at least as well as BRT at all 10 equal forest proportion interval ranging from 0 to 100%. This method is appealing to estimating subpixel land cover over large areas.
Melguizo, Tatiana; Bos, Johannes M.; Ngo, Federick; Mills, Nicholas; Prather, George
2016-01-01
This study evaluates the effectiveness of math placement policies for entering community college students on these students' academic success in math. We estimate the impact of placement decisions by using a discrete-time survival model within a regression discontinuity framework. The primary conclusion that emerges is that initial placement in a…
Replicating Experimental Impact Estimates Using a Regression Discontinuity Approach. NCEE 2012-4025
Gleason, Philip M.; Resch, Alexandra M.; Berk, Jillian A.
2012-01-01
This NCEE Technical Methods Paper compares the estimated impacts of an educational intervention using experimental and regression discontinuity (RD) study designs. The analysis used data from two large-scale randomized controlled trials--the Education Technology Evaluation and the Teach for America Study--to provide evidence on the performance of…
Adding a Parameter Increases the Variance of an Estimated Regression Function
Withers, Christopher S.; Nadarajah, Saralees
2011-01-01
The linear regression model is one of the most popular models in statistics. It is also one of the simplest models in statistics. It has received applications in almost every area of science, engineering and medicine. In this article, the authors show that adding a predictor to a linear model increases the variance of the estimated regression…
Early cost estimating for road construction projects using multiple regression techniques
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ibrahim Mahamid
2011-12-01
Full Text Available The objective of this study is to develop early cost estimating models for road construction projects using multiple regression techniques, based on 131 sets of data collected in the West Bank in Palestine. As the cost estimates are required at early stages of a project, considerations were given to the fact that the input data for the required regression model could be easily extracted from sketches or scope definition of the project. 11 regression models are developed to estimate the total cost of road construction project in US dollar; 5 of them include bid quantities as input variables and 6 include road length and road width. The coefficient of determination r2 for the developed models is ranging from 0.92 to 0.98 which indicate that the predicted values from a forecast models fit with the real-life data. The values of the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE of the developed regression models are ranging from 13% to 31%, the results compare favorably with past researches which have shown that the estimate accuracy in the early stages of a project is between ±25% and ±50%.
The limiting behavior of the estimated parameters in a misspecified random field regression model
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Dahl, Christian Møller; Qin, Yu
This paper examines the limiting properties of the estimated parameters in the random field regression model recently proposed by Hamilton (Econometrica, 2001). Though the model is parametric, it enjoys the flexibility of the nonparametric approach since it can approximate a large collection of n...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yoonseok Shin
2015-01-01
Full Text Available Among the recent data mining techniques available, the boosting approach has attracted a great deal of attention because of its effective learning algorithm and strong boundaries in terms of its generalization performance. However, the boosting approach has yet to be used in regression problems within the construction domain, including cost estimations, but has been actively utilized in other domains. Therefore, a boosting regression tree (BRT is applied to cost estimations at the early stage of a construction project to examine the applicability of the boosting approach to a regression problem within the construction domain. To evaluate the performance of the BRT model, its performance was compared with that of a neural network (NN model, which has been proven to have a high performance in cost estimation domains. The BRT model has shown results similar to those of NN model using 234 actual cost datasets of a building construction project. In addition, the BRT model can provide additional information such as the importance plot and structure model, which can support estimators in comprehending the decision making process. Consequently, the boosting approach has potential applicability in preliminary cost estimations in a building construction project.
Inverse estimation of multiple muscle activations based on linear logistic regression.
Sekiya, Masashi; Tsuji, Toshiaki
2017-07-01
This study deals with a technology to estimate the muscle activity from the movement data using a statistical model. A linear regression (LR) model and artificial neural networks (ANN) have been known as statistical models for such use. Although ANN has a high estimation capability, it is often in the clinical application that the lack of data amount leads to performance deterioration. On the other hand, the LR model has a limitation in generalization performance. We therefore propose a muscle activity estimation method to improve the generalization performance through the use of linear logistic regression model. The proposed method was compared with the LR model and ANN in the verification experiment with 7 participants. As a result, the proposed method showed better generalization performance than the conventional methods in various tasks.
Rudra, Carole B; Williams, Michelle A; Sheppard, Lianne; Koenig, Jane Q; Schiff, Melissa A; Frederick, Ihunnaya O; Dills, Russell
2010-04-15
Exposure to carbon monoxide (CO) and other ambient air pollutants is associated with adverse pregnancy outcomes. While there are several methods of estimating CO exposure, few have been evaluated against exposure biomarkers. The authors examined the relation between estimated CO exposure and blood carboxyhemoglobin concentration in 708 pregnant western Washington State women (1996-2004). Carboxyhemoglobin was measured in whole blood drawn around 13 weeks' gestation. CO exposure during the month of blood draw was estimated using a regression model containing predictor terms for year, month, street and population densities, and distance to the nearest major road. Year and month were the strongest predictors. Carboxyhemoglobin level was correlated with estimated CO exposure (rho = 0.22, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.15, 0.29). After adjustment for covariates, each 10% increase in estimated exposure was associated with a 1.12% increase in median carboxyhemoglobin level (95% CI: 0.54, 1.69). This association remained after exclusion of 286 women who reported smoking or being exposed to secondhand smoke (rho = 0.24). In this subgroup, the median carboxyhemoglobin concentration increased 1.29% (95% CI: 0.67, 1.91) for each 10% increase in CO exposure. Monthly estimated CO exposure was moderately correlated with an exposure biomarker. These results support the validity of this regression model for estimating ambient CO exposures in this population and geographic setting.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yi-Ming Kuo
2011-06-01
Full Text Available Fine airborne particulate matter (PM2.5 has adverse effects on human health. Assessing the long-term effects of PM2.5 exposure on human health and ecology is often limited by a lack of reliable PM2.5 measurements. In Taipei, PM2.5 levels were not systematically measured until August, 2005. Due to the popularity of geographic information systems (GIS, the landuse regression method has been widely used in the spatial estimation of PM concentrations. This method accounts for the potential contributing factors of the local environment, such as traffic volume. Geostatistical methods, on other hand, account for the spatiotemporal dependence among the observations of ambient pollutants. This study assesses the performance of the landuse regression model for the spatiotemporal estimation of PM2.5 in the Taipei area. Specifically, this study integrates the landuse regression model with the geostatistical approach within the framework of the Bayesian maximum entropy (BME method. The resulting epistemic framework can assimilate knowledge bases including: (a empirical-based spatial trends of PM concentration based on landuse regression, (b the spatio-temporal dependence among PM observation information, and (c site-specific PM observations. The proposed approach performs the spatiotemporal estimation of PM2.5 levels in the Taipei area (Taiwan from 2005–2007.
Yu, Hwa-Lung; Wang, Chih-Hsih; Liu, Ming-Che; Kuo, Yi-Ming
2011-06-01
Fine airborne particulate matter (PM2.5) has adverse effects on human health. Assessing the long-term effects of PM2.5 exposure on human health and ecology is often limited by a lack of reliable PM2.5 measurements. In Taipei, PM2.5 levels were not systematically measured until August, 2005. Due to the popularity of geographic information systems (GIS), the landuse regression method has been widely used in the spatial estimation of PM concentrations. This method accounts for the potential contributing factors of the local environment, such as traffic volume. Geostatistical methods, on other hand, account for the spatiotemporal dependence among the observations of ambient pollutants. This study assesses the performance of the landuse regression model for the spatiotemporal estimation of PM2.5 in the Taipei area. Specifically, this study integrates the landuse regression model with the geostatistical approach within the framework of the Bayesian maximum entropy (BME) method. The resulting epistemic framework can assimilate knowledge bases including: (a) empirical-based spatial trends of PM concentration based on landuse regression, (b) the spatio-temporal dependence among PM observation information, and (c) site-specific PM observations. The proposed approach performs the spatiotemporal estimation of PM2.5 levels in the Taipei area (Taiwan) from 2005-2007.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kirkeby, Carsten Thure; Hisham Beshara Halasa, Tariq; Gussmann, Maya Katrin
2017-01-01
the transmission rate. We use data from the two simulation models and vary the sampling intervals and the size of the population sampled. We devise two new methods to determine transmission rate, and compare these to the frequently used Poisson regression method in both epidemic and endemic situations. For most...... tested scenarios these new methods perform similar or better than Poisson regression, especially in the case of long sampling intervals. We conclude that transmission rate estimates are easily biased, which is important to take into account when using these rates in simulation models....
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Hsin-Lun Wu
Full Text Available Although procedure time analyses are important for operating room management, it is not easy to extract useful information from clinical procedure time data. A novel approach was proposed to analyze procedure time during anesthetic induction. A two-step regression analysis was performed to explore influential factors of anesthetic induction time (AIT. Linear regression with stepwise model selection was used to select significant correlates of AIT and then quantile regression was employed to illustrate the dynamic relationships between AIT and selected variables at distinct quantiles. A total of 1,060 patients were analyzed. The first and second-year residents (R1-R2 required longer AIT than the third and fourth-year residents and attending anesthesiologists (p = 0.006. Factors prolonging AIT included American Society of Anesthesiologist physical status ≧ III, arterial, central venous and epidural catheterization, and use of bronchoscopy. Presence of surgeon before induction would decrease AIT (p < 0.001. Types of surgery also had significant influence on AIT. Quantile regression satisfactorily estimated extra time needed to complete induction for each influential factor at distinct quantiles. Our analysis on AIT demonstrated the benefit of quantile regression analysis to provide more comprehensive view of the relationships between procedure time and related factors. This novel two-step regression approach has potential applications to procedure time analysis in operating room management.
Higher-order Multivariable Polynomial Regression to Estimate Human Affective States
Wei, Jie; Chen, Tong; Liu, Guangyuan; Yang, Jiemin
2016-03-01
From direct observations, facial, vocal, gestural, physiological, and central nervous signals, estimating human affective states through computational models such as multivariate linear-regression analysis, support vector regression, and artificial neural network, have been proposed in the past decade. In these models, linear models are generally lack of precision because of ignoring intrinsic nonlinearities of complex psychophysiological processes; and nonlinear models commonly adopt complicated algorithms. To improve accuracy and simplify model, we introduce a new computational modeling method named as higher-order multivariable polynomial regression to estimate human affective states. The study employs standardized pictures in the International Affective Picture System to induce thirty subjects’ affective states, and obtains pure affective patterns of skin conductance as input variables to the higher-order multivariable polynomial model for predicting affective valence and arousal. Experimental results show that our method is able to obtain efficient correlation coefficients of 0.98 and 0.96 for estimation of affective valence and arousal, respectively. Moreover, the method may provide certain indirect evidences that valence and arousal have their brain’s motivational circuit origins. Thus, the proposed method can serve as a novel one for efficiently estimating human affective states.
Direct and simultaneous estimation of cardiac four chamber volumes by multioutput sparse regression.
Zhen, Xiantong; Zhang, Heye; Islam, Ali; Bhaduri, Mousumi; Chan, Ian; Li, Shuo
2017-02-01
Cardiac four-chamber volume estimation serves as a fundamental and crucial role in clinical quantitative analysis of whole heart functions. It is a challenging task due to the huge complexity of the four chambers including great appearance variations, huge shape deformation and interference between chambers. Direct estimation has recently emerged as an effective and convenient tool for cardiac ventricular volume estimation. However, existing direct estimation methods were specifically developed for one single ventricle, i.e., left ventricle (LV), or bi-ventricles; they can not be directly used for four chamber volume estimation due to the great combinatorial variability and highly complex anatomical interdependency of the four chambers. In this paper, we propose a new, general framework for direct and simultaneous four chamber volume estimation. We have addressed two key issues, i.e., cardiac image representation and simultaneous four chamber volume estimation, which enables accurate and efficient four-chamber volume estimation. We generate compact and discriminative image representations by supervised descriptor learning (SDL) which can remove irrelevant information and extract discriminative features. We propose direct and simultaneous four-chamber volume estimation by the multioutput sparse latent regression (MSLR), which enables jointly modeling nonlinear input-output relationships and capturing four-chamber interdependence. The proposed method is highly generalized, independent of imaging modalities, which provides a general regression framework that can be extensively used for clinical data prediction to achieve automated diagnosis. Experiments on both MR and CT images show that our method achieves high performance with a correlation coefficient of up to 0.921 with ground truth obtained manually by human experts, which is clinically significant and enables more accurate, convenient and comprehensive assessment of cardiac functions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier
[Hyperspectral Estimation of Apple Tree Canopy LAI Based on SVM and RF Regression].
Han, Zhao-ying; Zhu, Xi-cun; Fang, Xian-yi; Wang, Zhuo-yuan; Wang, Ling; Zhao, Geng-Xing; Jiang, Yuan-mao
2016-03-01
Leaf area index (LAI) is the dynamic index of crop population size. Hyperspectral technology can be used to estimate apple canopy LAI rapidly and nondestructively. It can be provide a reference for monitoring the tree growing and yield estimation. The Red Fuji apple trees of full bearing fruit are the researching objects. Ninety apple trees canopies spectral reflectance and LAI values were measured by the ASD Fieldspec3 spectrometer and LAI-2200 in thirty orchards in constant two years in Qixia research area of Shandong Province. The optimal vegetation indices were selected by the method of correlation analysis of the original spectral reflectance and vegetation indices. The models of predicting the LAI were built with the multivariate regression analysis method of support vector machine (SVM) and random forest (RF). The new vegetation indices, GNDVI527, ND-VI676, RVI682, FD-NVI656 and GRVI517 and the previous two main vegetation indices, NDVI670 and NDVI705, are in accordance with LAI. In the RF regression model, the calibration set decision coefficient C-R2 of 0.920 and validation set decision coefficient V-R2 of 0.889 are higher than the SVM regression model by 0.045 and 0.033 respectively. The root mean square error of calibration set C-RMSE of 0.249, the root mean square error validation set V-RMSE of 0.236 are lower than that of the SVM regression model by 0.054 and 0.058 respectively. Relative analysis of calibrating error C-RPD and relative analysis of validation set V-RPD reached 3.363 and 2.520, 0.598 and 0.262, respectively, which were higher than the SVM regression model. The measured and predicted the scatterplot trend line slope of the calibration set and validation set C-S and V-S are close to 1. The estimation result of RF regression model is better than that of the SVM. RF regression model can be used to estimate the LAI of red Fuji apple trees in full fruit period.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Johnson, J.O.; Gabriel, T.A.; Lillie, R.A.
1996-01-01
The Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) has proposed designing and implementing a new target-ion source for production and injection of negative radioactive ion beams into the Hollifield tandem accelerator. This new facility, referred to as the Radioactive Ion Beam Facility (RIBF), will primarily be used to advance the scientific communities' capabilities for performing state-of-the-art cross-section measurements. Beams of protons or other light, stable ions from the Oak Ridge Isochronous Cyclotron (ORIC) will be stopped in the RIBF target ion source and the resulting radioactive atoms will be ionized, charge exchanged, accelerated, and injected into the tandem accelerator. The ORIC currently operates with proton energies up to 60 MeV and beam currents up to 100 microamps with a maximum beam power less than 2.0 kW. The proposed RIBF will require upgrading the ORIC to generate proton energies up to 200 MeV and beam currents up to 200 microamps for optimum performance. This report summarizes the results of a preliminary one-dimensional shielding analysis of the proposed upgrade to the ORIC and design of the RIBF. The principal objective of the shielding analysis was to determine the feasibility of such an upgrade with respect to existing shielding from the facility structure, and additional shielding requirements for the 200 MeV ORIC machine and RIBF target room
Mass estimation of loose parts in nuclear power plant based on multiple regression
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
He, Yuanfeng; Cao, Yanlong; Yang, Jiangxin; Gan, Chunbiao
2012-01-01
According to the application of the Hilbert–Huang transform to the non-stationary signal and the relation between the mass of loose parts in nuclear power plant and corresponding frequency content, a new method for loose part mass estimation based on the marginal Hilbert–Huang spectrum (MHS) and multiple regression is proposed in this paper. The frequency spectrum of a loose part in a nuclear power plant can be expressed by the MHS. The multiple regression model that is constructed by the MHS feature of the impact signals for mass estimation is used to predict the unknown masses of a loose part. A simulated experiment verified that the method is feasible and the errors of the results are acceptable. (paper)
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Menon Carlo
2011-09-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Several regression models have been proposed for estimation of isometric joint torque using surface electromyography (SEMG signals. Common issues related to torque estimation models are degradation of model accuracy with passage of time, electrode displacement, and alteration of limb posture. This work compares the performance of the most commonly used regression models under these circumstances, in order to assist researchers with identifying the most appropriate model for a specific biomedical application. Methods Eleven healthy volunteers participated in this study. A custom-built rig, equipped with a torque sensor, was used to measure isometric torque as each volunteer flexed and extended his wrist. SEMG signals from eight forearm muscles, in addition to wrist joint torque data were gathered during the experiment. Additional data were gathered one hour and twenty-four hours following the completion of the first data gathering session, for the purpose of evaluating the effects of passage of time and electrode displacement on accuracy of models. Acquired SEMG signals were filtered, rectified, normalized and then fed to models for training. Results It was shown that mean adjusted coefficient of determination (Ra2 values decrease between 20%-35% for different models after one hour while altering arm posture decreased mean Ra2 values between 64% to 74% for different models. Conclusions Model estimation accuracy drops significantly with passage of time, electrode displacement, and alteration of limb posture. Therefore model retraining is crucial for preserving estimation accuracy. Data resampling can significantly reduce model training time without losing estimation accuracy. Among the models compared, ordinary least squares linear regression model (OLS was shown to have high isometric torque estimation accuracy combined with very short training times.
Burns, Douglas A.; Smith, Martyn J.; Freehafer, Douglas A.
2015-12-31
A new Web-based application, titled “Application of Flood Regressions and Climate Change Scenarios To Explore Estimates of Future Peak Flows”, has been developed by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the New York State Department of Transportation, that allows a user to apply a set of regression equations to estimate the magnitude of future floods for any stream or river in New York State (exclusive of Long Island) and the Lake Champlain Basin in Vermont. The regression equations that are the basis of the current application were developed in previous investigations by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and are described at the USGS StreamStats Web sites for New York (http://water.usgs.gov/osw/streamstats/new_york.html) and Vermont (http://water.usgs.gov/osw/streamstats/Vermont.html). These regression equations include several fixed landscape metrics that quantify aspects of watershed geomorphology, basin size, and land cover as well as a climate variable—either annual precipitation or annual runoff.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Rajesh D. R
2015-01-01
Full Text Available Background: At times fragments of soft tissues are found disposed off in the open, in ditches at the crime scene and the same are brought to forensic experts for the purpose of identification and such type of cases pose a real challenge. Objectives: This study was aimed at developing a methodology which could help in personal identification by studying the relation between foot dimensions and stature among south subjects using regression models. Material and Methods: Stature and foot length of 100 subjects (age range 18-22 years were measured. Linear regression equations for stature estimation were calculated. Result: The correlation coefficients between stature and foot lengths were found to be positive and statistically significant. Height = 98.159 + 3.746 × FLRT (r = 0.821 and Height = 91.242 + 3.284 × FLRT (r = 0.837 are the regression formulas from foot lengths for males and females respectively. Conclusion: The regression equation derived in the study can be used reliably for estimation of stature in a diverse population group thus would be of immense value in the field of personal identification especially from mutilated bodies or fragmentary remains.
In search of a corrected prescription drug elasticity estimate: a meta-regression approach.
Gemmill, Marin C; Costa-Font, Joan; McGuire, Alistair
2007-06-01
An understanding of the relationship between cost sharing and drug consumption depends on consistent and unbiased price elasticity estimates. However, there is wide heterogeneity among studies, which constrains the applicability of elasticity estimates for empirical purposes and policy simulation. This paper attempts to provide a corrected measure of the drug price elasticity by employing meta-regression analysis (MRA). The results indicate that the elasticity estimates are significantly different from zero, and the corrected elasticity is -0.209 when the results are made robust to heteroskedasticity and clustering of observations. Elasticity values are higher when the study was published in an economic journal, when the study employed a greater number of observations, and when the study used aggregate data. Elasticity estimates are lower when the institutional setting was a tax-based health insurance system.
Estimating the Impact of Urbanization on Air Quality in China Using Spatial Regression Models
Fang, Chuanglin; Liu, Haimeng; Li, Guangdong; Sun, Dongqi; Miao, Zhuang
2015-01-01
Urban air pollution is one of the most visible environmental problems to have accompanied China’s rapid urbanization. Based on emission inventory data from 2014, gathered from 289 cities, we used Global and Local Moran’s I to measure the spatial autorrelation of Air Quality Index (AQI) values at the city level, and employed Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), Spatial Lag Model (SAR), and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) to quantitatively estimate the comprehensive impact and spatial variati...
Ordinal Regression Based Subpixel Shift Estimation for Video Super-Resolution
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Petrovic Nemanja
2007-01-01
Full Text Available We present a supervised learning-based approach for subpixel motion estimation which is then used to perform video super-resolution. The novelty of this work is the formulation of the problem of subpixel motion estimation in a ranking framework. The ranking formulation is a variant of classification and regression formulation, in which the ordering present in class labels namely, the shift between patches is explicitly taken into account. Finally, we demonstrate the applicability of our approach on superresolving synthetically generated images with global subpixel shifts and enhancing real video frames by accounting for both local integer and subpixel shifts.
Kim, Yoonsang; Emery, Sherry
2013-01-01
Several statistical packages are capable of estimating generalized linear mixed models and these packages provide one or more of three estimation methods: penalized quasi-likelihood, Laplace, and Gauss-Hermite. Many studies have investigated these methods’ performance for the mixed-effects logistic regression model. However, the authors focused on models with one or two random effects and assumed a simple covariance structure between them, which may not be realistic. When there are multiple correlated random effects in a model, the computation becomes intensive, and often an algorithm fails to converge. Moreover, in our analysis of smoking status and exposure to anti-tobacco advertisements, we have observed that when a model included multiple random effects, parameter estimates varied considerably from one statistical package to another even when using the same estimation method. This article presents a comprehensive review of the advantages and disadvantages of each estimation method. In addition, we compare the performances of the three methods across statistical packages via simulation, which involves two- and three-level logistic regression models with at least three correlated random effects. We apply our findings to a real dataset. Our results suggest that two packages—SAS GLIMMIX Laplace and SuperMix Gaussian quadrature—perform well in terms of accuracy, precision, convergence rates, and computing speed. We also discuss the strengths and weaknesses of the two packages in regard to sample sizes. PMID:24288415
Kim, Yoonsang; Choi, Young-Ku; Emery, Sherry
2013-08-01
Several statistical packages are capable of estimating generalized linear mixed models and these packages provide one or more of three estimation methods: penalized quasi-likelihood, Laplace, and Gauss-Hermite. Many studies have investigated these methods' performance for the mixed-effects logistic regression model. However, the authors focused on models with one or two random effects and assumed a simple covariance structure between them, which may not be realistic. When there are multiple correlated random effects in a model, the computation becomes intensive, and often an algorithm fails to converge. Moreover, in our analysis of smoking status and exposure to anti-tobacco advertisements, we have observed that when a model included multiple random effects, parameter estimates varied considerably from one statistical package to another even when using the same estimation method. This article presents a comprehensive review of the advantages and disadvantages of each estimation method. In addition, we compare the performances of the three methods across statistical packages via simulation, which involves two- and three-level logistic regression models with at least three correlated random effects. We apply our findings to a real dataset. Our results suggest that two packages-SAS GLIMMIX Laplace and SuperMix Gaussian quadrature-perform well in terms of accuracy, precision, convergence rates, and computing speed. We also discuss the strengths and weaknesses of the two packages in regard to sample sizes.
Accounting for estimated IQ in neuropsychological test performance with regression-based techniques.
Testa, S Marc; Winicki, Jessica M; Pearlson, Godfrey D; Gordon, Barry; Schretlen, David J
2009-11-01
Regression-based normative techniques account for variability in test performance associated with multiple predictor variables and generate expected scores based on algebraic equations. Using this approach, we show that estimated IQ, based on oral word reading, accounts for 1-9% of the variability beyond that explained by individual differences in age, sex, race, and years of education for most cognitive measures. These results confirm that adding estimated "premorbid" IQ to demographic predictors in multiple regression models can incrementally improve the accuracy with which regression-based norms (RBNs) benchmark expected neuropsychological test performance in healthy adults. It remains to be seen whether the incremental variance in test performance explained by estimated "premorbid" IQ translates to improved diagnostic accuracy in patient samples. We describe these methods, and illustrate the step-by-step application of RBNs with two cases. We also discuss the rationale, assumptions, and caveats of this approach. More broadly, we note that adjusting test scores for age and other characteristics might actually decrease the accuracy with which test performance predicts absolute criteria, such as the ability to drive or live independently.
Comparison of Classical and Robust Estimates of Threshold Auto-regression Parameters
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
V. B. Goryainov
2017-01-01
Full Text Available The study object is the first-order threshold auto-regression model with a single zero-located threshold. The model describes a stochastic temporal series with discrete time by means of a piecewise linear equation consisting of two linear classical first-order autoregressive equations. One of these equations is used to calculate a running value of the temporal series. A control variable that determines the choice between these two equations is the sign of the previous value of the same series.The first-order threshold autoregressive model with a single threshold depends on two real parameters that coincide with the coefficients of the piecewise linear threshold equation. These parameters are assumed to be unknown. The paper studies an estimate of the least squares, an estimate the least modules, and the M-estimates of these parameters. The aim of the paper is a comparative study of the accuracy of these estimates for the main probabilistic distributions of the updating process of the threshold autoregressive equation. These probability distributions were normal, contaminated normal, logistic, double-exponential distributions, a Student's distribution with different number of degrees of freedom, and a Cauchy distribution.As a measure of the accuracy of each estimate, was chosen its variance to measure the scattering of the estimate around the estimated parameter. An estimate with smaller variance made from the two estimates was considered to be the best. The variance was estimated by computer simulation. To estimate the smallest modules an iterative weighted least-squares method was used and the M-estimates were done by the method of a deformable polyhedron (the Nelder-Mead method. To calculate the least squares estimate, an explicit analytic expression was used.It turned out that the estimation of least squares is best only with the normal distribution of the updating process. For the logistic distribution and the Student's distribution with the
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Prieto G, A.; Espinosa P, G. [UAM-I, 09340 Mexico D.F. (Mexico)
2008-07-01
A wavelet ridges application is proposed as a simple method to determine the evolution of the linear stability parameters of a BWR NPP using neutronic noise signals. The wavelets ridges are used to track the instantaneous frequencies contained in a signal and to estimate the Decay Ratio (DR). The first step of the method consists of de noising the analyzed signals by Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT) to reduce the interference of high-frequency noise and concentrate the analysis in the band where crucial frequencies are presented. Next, is computation of the wavelet ridges by Continuous Wavelet Transform (CWT) to obtain the modulus maxima from the normalized scalogram of the signal. In general, associations with these wavelets ridges can be used to compute instantaneous frequency contained in the signal and the DR evolution with the measurement. To study the performance of the wavelet ridges method, by computing the evolution of the linear stability parameters, both simulated and real neutronic signals were considered. The simulated signal is used to validate methodically and to study some features of the wavelet ridges method. To demonstrate the method applicability a real neutronic signal from the instability event in Laguna Verde was analyzed. The investigations show that most of the local energies of the signal are concentrated in the wavelet ridges and DR variations of the signals were observed along the measurements. (Author)
Regression to fuzziness method for estimation of remaining useful life in power plant components
Alamaniotis, Miltiadis; Grelle, Austin; Tsoukalas, Lefteri H.
2014-10-01
Mitigation of severe accidents in power plants requires the reliable operation of all systems and the on-time replacement of mechanical components. Therefore, the continuous surveillance of power systems is a crucial concern for the overall safety, cost control, and on-time maintenance of a power plant. In this paper a methodology called regression to fuzziness is presented that estimates the remaining useful life (RUL) of power plant components. The RUL is defined as the difference between the time that a measurement was taken and the estimated failure time of that component. The methodology aims to compensate for a potential lack of historical data by modeling an expert's operational experience and expertise applied to the system. It initially identifies critical degradation parameters and their associated value range. Once completed, the operator's experience is modeled through fuzzy sets which span the entire parameter range. This model is then synergistically used with linear regression and a component's failure point to estimate the RUL. The proposed methodology is tested on estimating the RUL of a turbine (the basic electrical generating component of a power plant) in three different cases. Results demonstrate the benefits of the methodology for components for which operational data is not readily available and emphasize the significance of the selection of fuzzy sets and the effect of knowledge representation on the predicted output. To verify the effectiveness of the methodology, it was benchmarked against the data-based simple linear regression model used for predictions which was shown to perform equal or worse than the presented methodology. Furthermore, methodology comparison highlighted the improvement in estimation offered by the adoption of appropriate of fuzzy sets for parameter representation.
Carroll, Raymond J.
2011-03-01
In many applications we can expect that, or are interested to know if, a density function or a regression curve satisfies some specific shape constraints. For example, when the explanatory variable, X, represents the value taken by a treatment or dosage, the conditional mean of the response, Y , is often anticipated to be a monotone function of X. Indeed, if this regression mean is not monotone (in the appropriate direction) then the medical or commercial value of the treatment is likely to be significantly curtailed, at least for values of X that lie beyond the point at which monotonicity fails. In the case of a density, common shape constraints include log-concavity and unimodality. If we can correctly guess the shape of a curve, then nonparametric estimators can be improved by taking this information into account. Addressing such problems requires a method for testing the hypothesis that the curve of interest satisfies a shape constraint, and, if the conclusion of the test is positive, a technique for estimating the curve subject to the constraint. Nonparametric methodology for solving these problems already exists, but only in cases where the covariates are observed precisely. However in many problems, data can only be observed with measurement errors, and the methods employed in the error-free case typically do not carry over to this error context. In this paper we develop a novel approach to hypothesis testing and function estimation under shape constraints, which is valid in the context of measurement errors. Our method is based on tilting an estimator of the density or the regression mean until it satisfies the shape constraint, and we take as our test statistic the distance through which it is tilted. Bootstrap methods are used to calibrate the test. The constrained curve estimators that we develop are also based on tilting, and in that context our work has points of contact with methodology in the error-free case.
Estimating HIES Data through Ratio and Regression Methods for Different Sampling Designs
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Faqir Muhammad
2007-01-01
Full Text Available In this study, comparison has been made for different sampling designs, using the HIES data of North West Frontier Province (NWFP for 2001-02 and 1998-99 collected from the Federal Bureau of Statistics, Statistical Division, Government of Pakistan, Islamabad. The performance of the estimators has also been considered using bootstrap and Jacknife. A two-stage stratified random sample design is adopted by HIES. In the first stage, enumeration blocks and villages are treated as the first stage Primary Sampling Units (PSU. The sample PSU’s are selected with probability proportional to size. Secondary Sampling Units (SSU i.e., households are selected by systematic sampling with a random start. They have used a single study variable. We have compared the HIES technique with some other designs, which are: Stratified Simple Random Sampling. Stratified Systematic Sampling. Stratified Ranked Set Sampling. Stratified Two Phase Sampling. Ratio and Regression methods were applied with two study variables, which are: Income (y and Household sizes (x. Jacknife and Bootstrap are used for variance replication. Simple Random Sampling with sample size (462 to 561 gave moderate variances both by Jacknife and Bootstrap. By applying Systematic Sampling, we received moderate variance with sample size (467. In Jacknife with Systematic Sampling, we obtained variance of regression estimator greater than that of ratio estimator for a sample size (467 to 631. At a sample size (952 variance of ratio estimator gets greater than that of regression estimator. The most efficient design comes out to be Ranked set sampling compared with other designs. The Ranked set sampling with jackknife and bootstrap, gives minimum variance even with the smallest sample size (467. Two Phase sampling gave poor performance. Multi-stage sampling applied by HIES gave large variances especially if used with a single study variable.
A robust background regression based score estimation algorithm for hyperspectral anomaly detection
Zhao, Rui; Du, Bo; Zhang, Liangpei; Zhang, Lefei
2016-12-01
Anomaly detection has become a hot topic in the hyperspectral image analysis and processing fields in recent years. The most important issue for hyperspectral anomaly detection is the background estimation and suppression. Unreasonable or non-robust background estimation usually leads to unsatisfactory anomaly detection results. Furthermore, the inherent nonlinearity of hyperspectral images may cover up the intrinsic data structure in the anomaly detection. In order to implement robust background estimation, as well as to explore the intrinsic data structure of the hyperspectral image, we propose a robust background regression based score estimation algorithm (RBRSE) for hyperspectral anomaly detection. The Robust Background Regression (RBR) is actually a label assignment procedure which segments the hyperspectral data into a robust background dataset and a potential anomaly dataset with an intersection boundary. In the RBR, a kernel expansion technique, which explores the nonlinear structure of the hyperspectral data in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space, is utilized to formulate the data as a density feature representation. A minimum squared loss relationship is constructed between the data density feature and the corresponding assigned labels of the hyperspectral data, to formulate the foundation of the regression. Furthermore, a manifold regularization term which explores the manifold smoothness of the hyperspectral data, and a maximization term of the robust background average density, which suppresses the bias caused by the potential anomalies, are jointly appended in the RBR procedure. After this, a paired-dataset based k-nn score estimation method is undertaken on the robust background and potential anomaly datasets, to implement the detection output. The experimental results show that RBRSE achieves superior ROC curves, AUC values, and background-anomaly separation than some of the other state-of-the-art anomaly detection methods, and is easy to implement
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Baser, Furkan; Demirhan, Haydar
2017-01-01
Accurate estimation of the amount of horizontal global solar radiation for a particular field is an important input for decision processes in solar radiation investments. In this article, we focus on the estimation of yearly mean daily horizontal global solar radiation by using an approach that utilizes fuzzy regression functions with support vector machine (FRF-SVM). This approach is not seriously affected by outlier observations and does not suffer from the over-fitting problem. To demonstrate the utility of the FRF-SVM approach in the estimation of horizontal global solar radiation, we conduct an empirical study over a dataset collected in Turkey and applied the FRF-SVM approach with several kernel functions. Then, we compare the estimation accuracy of the FRF-SVM approach to an adaptive neuro-fuzzy system and a coplot supported-genetic programming approach. We observe that the FRF-SVM approach with a Gaussian kernel function is not affected by both outliers and over-fitting problem and gives the most accurate estimates of horizontal global solar radiation among the applied approaches. Consequently, the use of hybrid fuzzy functions and support vector machine approaches is found beneficial in long-term forecasting of horizontal global solar radiation over a region with complex climatic and terrestrial characteristics. - Highlights: • A fuzzy regression functions with support vector machines approach is proposed. • The approach is robust against outlier observations and over-fitting problem. • Estimation accuracy of the model is superior to several existent alternatives. • A new solar radiation estimation model is proposed for the region of Turkey. • The model is useful under complex terrestrial and climatic conditions.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Hukharnsusatrue, A.
2005-11-01
Full Text Available The objective of this research is to compare multiple regression coefficients estimating methods with existence of multicollinearity among independent variables. The estimation methods are Ordinary Least Squares method (OLS, Restricted Least Squares method (RLS, Restricted Ridge Regression method (RRR and Restricted Liu method (RL when restrictions are true and restrictions are not true. The study used the Monte Carlo Simulation method. The experiment was repeated 1,000 times under each situation. The analyzed results of the data are demonstrated as follows. CASE 1: The restrictions are true. In all cases, RRR and RL methods have a smaller Average Mean Square Error (AMSE than OLS and RLS method, respectively. RRR method provides the smallest AMSE when the level of correlations is high and also provides the smallest AMSE for all level of correlations and all sample sizes when standard deviation is equal to 5. However, RL method provides the smallest AMSE when the level of correlations is low and middle, except in the case of standard deviation equal to 3, small sample sizes, RRR method provides the smallest AMSE.The AMSE varies with, most to least, respectively, level of correlations, standard deviation and number of independent variables but inversely with to sample size.CASE 2: The restrictions are not true.In all cases, RRR method provides the smallest AMSE, except in the case of standard deviation equal to 1 and error of restrictions equal to 5%, OLS method provides the smallest AMSE when the level of correlations is low or median and there is a large sample size, but the small sample sizes, RL method provides the smallest AMSE. In addition, when error of restrictions is increased, OLS method provides the smallest AMSE for all level, of correlations and all sample sizes, except when the level of correlations is high and sample sizes small. Moreover, the case OLS method provides the smallest AMSE, the most RLS method has a smaller AMSE than
A different approach to estimate nonlinear regression model using numerical methods
Mahaboob, B.; Venkateswarlu, B.; Mokeshrayalu, G.; Balasiddamuni, P.
2017-11-01
This research paper concerns with the computational methods namely the Gauss-Newton method, Gradient algorithm methods (Newton-Raphson method, Steepest Descent or Steepest Ascent algorithm method, the Method of Scoring, the Method of Quadratic Hill-Climbing) based on numerical analysis to estimate parameters of nonlinear regression model in a very different way. Principles of matrix calculus have been used to discuss the Gradient-Algorithm methods. Yonathan Bard [1] discussed a comparison of gradient methods for the solution of nonlinear parameter estimation problems. However this article discusses an analytical approach to the gradient algorithm methods in a different way. This paper describes a new iterative technique namely Gauss-Newton method which differs from the iterative technique proposed by Gorden K. Smyth [2]. Hans Georg Bock et.al [10] proposed numerical methods for parameter estimation in DAE’s (Differential algebraic equation). Isabel Reis Dos Santos et al [11], Introduced weighted least squares procedure for estimating the unknown parameters of a nonlinear regression metamodel. For large-scale non smooth convex minimization the Hager and Zhang (HZ) conjugate gradient Method and the modified HZ (MHZ) method were presented by Gonglin Yuan et al [12].
Wang, Wei; Griswold, Michael E
2016-11-30
The random effect Tobit model is a regression model that accommodates both left- and/or right-censoring and within-cluster dependence of the outcome variable. Regression coefficients of random effect Tobit models have conditional interpretations on a constructed latent dependent variable and do not provide inference of overall exposure effects on the original outcome scale. Marginalized random effects model (MREM) permits likelihood-based estimation of marginal mean parameters for the clustered data. For random effect Tobit models, we extend the MREM to marginalize over both the random effects and the normal space and boundary components of the censored response to estimate overall exposure effects at population level. We also extend the 'Average Predicted Value' method to estimate the model-predicted marginal means for each person under different exposure status in a designated reference group by integrating over the random effects and then use the calculated difference to assess the overall exposure effect. The maximum likelihood estimation is proposed utilizing a quasi-Newton optimization algorithm with Gauss-Hermite quadrature to approximate the integration of the random effects. We use these methods to carefully analyze two real datasets. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Saputro, D. R. S.; Amalia, F.; Widyaningsih, P.; Affan, R. C.
2018-05-01
Bayesian method is a method that can be used to estimate the parameters of multivariate multiple regression model. Bayesian method has two distributions, there are prior and posterior distributions. Posterior distribution is influenced by the selection of prior distribution. Jeffreys’ prior distribution is a kind of Non-informative prior distribution. This prior is used when the information about parameter not available. Non-informative Jeffreys’ prior distribution is combined with the sample information resulting the posterior distribution. Posterior distribution is used to estimate the parameter. The purposes of this research is to estimate the parameters of multivariate regression model using Bayesian method with Non-informative Jeffreys’ prior distribution. Based on the results and discussion, parameter estimation of β and Σ which were obtained from expected value of random variable of marginal posterior distribution function. The marginal posterior distributions for β and Σ are multivariate normal and inverse Wishart. However, in calculation of the expected value involving integral of a function which difficult to determine the value. Therefore, approach is needed by generating of random samples according to the posterior distribution characteristics of each parameter using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) Gibbs sampling algorithm.
A subagging regression method for estimating the qualitative and quantitative state of groundwater
Jeong, Jina; Park, Eungyu; Han, Weon Shik; Kim, Kue-Young
2017-08-01
A subsample aggregating (subagging) regression (SBR) method for the analysis of groundwater data pertaining to trend-estimation-associated uncertainty is proposed. The SBR method is validated against synthetic data competitively with other conventional robust and non-robust methods. From the results, it is verified that the estimation accuracies of the SBR method are consistent and superior to those of other methods, and the uncertainties are reasonably estimated; the others have no uncertainty analysis option. To validate further, actual groundwater data are employed and analyzed comparatively with Gaussian process regression (GPR). For all cases, the trend and the associated uncertainties are reasonably estimated by both SBR and GPR regardless of Gaussian or non-Gaussian skewed data. However, it is expected that GPR has a limitation in applications to severely corrupted data by outliers owing to its non-robustness. From the implementations, it is determined that the SBR method has the potential to be further developed as an effective tool of anomaly detection or outlier identification in groundwater state data such as the groundwater level and contaminant concentration.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hede, Mikkel Ulfeldt; Nielsen, Lars; Clemmensen, Lars B
2011-01-01
Estimates of past sea-level variations based on different methods and techniques have been presented in a range of studies, including interpretation of beach ridge characteristics. In Denmark, Holocene beach ridge plains have been formed during the last c. 7700 years, a period characterised by both...... isostatic uplift and changes in eustatic sea-level, and therefore represent an archive of past relative sea-level variations. Here, we present preliminary results from investigation of beach ridges from Feddet, a small peninsula located in Faxe Bay (Baltic Sea) in the eastern part of Denmark. Feddet has...... been chosen as a key-locality in this project, as it is located relatively close to the current 0-isobase of isostatic rebound. GPR reflection data have been acquired with shielded 250 MHz Sensors & software antennae along a number of profile lines across beach ridge and swale structures of the Feddet...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Francesco Sarracino
2017-04-01
Full Text Available Recent studies documented that survey data contain duplicate records. We assess how duplicate records affect regression estimates, and we evaluate the effectiveness of solutions to deal with duplicate records. Results show that the chances of obtaining unbiased estimates when data contain 40 doublets (about 5% of the sample range between 3.5% and 11.5% depending on the distribution of duplicates. If 7 quintuplets are present in the data (2% of the sample, then the probability of obtaining biased estimates ranges between 11% and 20%. Weighting the duplicate records by the inverse of their multiplicity, or dropping superfluous duplicates outperform other solutions in all considered scenarios. Our results illustrate the risk of using data in presence of duplicate records and call for further research on strategies to analyze affected data.
Estimation of monthly solar exposure on horizontal surface by Angstrom-type regression equation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ravanshid, S.H.
1981-01-01
To obtain solar flux intensity, solar radiation measuring instruments are the best. In the absence of instrumental data there are other meteorological measurements which are related to solar energy and also it is possible to use empirical relationships to estimate solar flux intensit. One of these empirical relationships to estimate monthly averages of total solar radiation on a horizontal surface is the modified angstrom-type regression equation which has been employed in this report in order to estimate the solar flux intensity on a horizontal surface for Tehran. By comparing the results of this equation with four years measured valued by Tehran's meteorological weather station the values of meteorological constants (a,b) in the equation were obtained for Tehran. (author)
Oil and gas pipeline construction cost analysis and developing regression models for cost estimation
Thaduri, Ravi Kiran
In this study, cost data for 180 pipelines and 136 compressor stations have been analyzed. On the basis of the distribution analysis, regression models have been developed. Material, Labor, ROW and miscellaneous costs make up the total cost of a pipeline construction. The pipelines are analyzed based on different pipeline lengths, diameter, location, pipeline volume and year of completion. In a pipeline construction, labor costs dominate the total costs with a share of about 40%. Multiple non-linear regression models are developed to estimate the component costs of pipelines for various cross-sectional areas, lengths and locations. The Compressor stations are analyzed based on the capacity, year of completion and location. Unlike the pipeline costs, material costs dominate the total costs in the construction of compressor station, with an average share of about 50.6%. Land costs have very little influence on the total costs. Similar regression models are developed to estimate the component costs of compressor station for various capacities and locations.
Saunders, Christina T; Blume, Jeffrey D
2017-10-26
Mediation analysis explores the degree to which an exposure's effect on an outcome is diverted through a mediating variable. We describe a classical regression framework for conducting mediation analyses in which estimates of causal mediation effects and their variance are obtained from the fit of a single regression model. The vector of changes in exposure pathway coefficients, which we named the essential mediation components (EMCs), is used to estimate standard causal mediation effects. Because these effects are often simple functions of the EMCs, an analytical expression for their model-based variance follows directly. Given this formula, it is instructive to revisit the performance of routinely used variance approximations (e.g., delta method and resampling methods). Requiring the fit of only one model reduces the computation time required for complex mediation analyses and permits the use of a rich suite of regression tools that are not easily implemented on a system of three equations, as would be required in the Baron-Kenny framework. Using data from the BRAIN-ICU study, we provide examples to illustrate the advantages of this framework and compare it with the existing approaches. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Urrutia, J D; Bautista, L A; Baccay, E B
2014-01-01
The aim of this study was to develop mathematical models for estimating earthquake casualties such as death, number of injured persons, affected families and total cost of damage. To quantify the direct damages from earthquakes to human beings and properties given the magnitude, intensity, depth of focus, location of epicentre and time duration, the regression models were made. The researchers formulated models through regression analysis using matrices and used α = 0.01. The study considered thirty destructive earthquakes that hit the Philippines from the inclusive years 1968 to 2012. Relevant data about these said earthquakes were obtained from Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology. Data on damages and casualties were gathered from the records of National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council. This study will be of great value in emergency planning, initiating and updating programs for earthquake hazard reduction in the Philippines, which is an earthquake-prone country.
Liu, Pudong; Shi, Runhe; Wang, Hong; Bai, Kaixu; Gao, Wei
2014-10-01
Leaf pigments are key elements for plant photosynthesis and growth. Traditional manual sampling of these pigments is labor-intensive and costly, which also has the difficulty in capturing their temporal and spatial characteristics. The aim of this work is to estimate photosynthetic pigments at large scale by remote sensing. For this purpose, inverse model were proposed with the aid of stepwise multiple linear regression (SMLR) analysis. Furthermore, a leaf radiative transfer model (i.e. PROSPECT model) was employed to simulate the leaf reflectance where wavelength varies from 400 to 780 nm at 1 nm interval, and then these values were treated as the data from remote sensing observations. Meanwhile, simulated chlorophyll concentration (Cab), carotenoid concentration (Car) and their ratio (Cab/Car) were taken as target to build the regression model respectively. In this study, a total of 4000 samples were simulated via PROSPECT with different Cab, Car and leaf mesophyll structures as 70% of these samples were applied for training while the last 30% for model validation. Reflectance (r) and its mathematic transformations (1/r and log (1/r)) were all employed to build regression model respectively. Results showed fair agreements between pigments and simulated reflectance with all adjusted coefficients of determination (R2) larger than 0.8 as 6 wavebands were selected to build the SMLR model. The largest value of R2 for Cab, Car and Cab/Car are 0.8845, 0.876 and 0.8765, respectively. Meanwhile, mathematic transformations of reflectance showed little influence on regression accuracy. We concluded that it was feasible to estimate the chlorophyll and carotenoids and their ratio based on statistical model with leaf reflectance data.
Zhai, Liang; Li, Shuang; Zou, Bin; Sang, Huiyong; Fang, Xin; Xu, Shan
2018-05-01
Considering the spatial non-stationary contributions of environment variables to PM2.5 variations, the geographically weighted regression (GWR) modeling method has been using to estimate PM2.5 concentrations widely. However, most of the GWR models in reported studies so far were established based on the screened predictors through pretreatment correlation analysis, and this process might cause the omissions of factors really driving PM2.5 variations. This study therefore developed a best subsets regression (BSR) enhanced principal component analysis-GWR (PCA-GWR) modeling approach to estimate PM2.5 concentration by fully considering all the potential variables' contributions simultaneously. The performance comparison experiment between PCA-GWR and regular GWR was conducted in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region over a one-year-period. Results indicated that the PCA-GWR modeling outperforms the regular GWR modeling with obvious higher model fitting- and cross-validation based adjusted R2 and lower RMSE. Meanwhile, the distribution map of PM2.5 concentration from PCA-GWR modeling also clearly depicts more spatial variation details in contrast to the one from regular GWR modeling. It can be concluded that the BSR enhanced PCA-GWR modeling could be a reliable way for effective air pollution concentration estimation in the coming future by involving all the potential predictor variables' contributions to PM2.5 variations.
Large biases in regression-based constituent flux estimates: causes and diagnostic tools
Hirsch, Robert M.
2014-01-01
It has been documented in the literature that, in some cases, widely used regression-based models can produce severely biased estimates of long-term mean river fluxes of various constituents. These models, estimated using sample values of concentration, discharge, and date, are used to compute estimated fluxes for a multiyear period at a daily time step. This study compares results of the LOADEST seven-parameter model, LOADEST five-parameter model, and the Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season (WRTDS) model using subsampling of six very large datasets to better understand this bias problem. This analysis considers sample datasets for dissolved nitrate and total phosphorus. The results show that LOADEST-7 and LOADEST-5, although they often produce very nearly unbiased results, can produce highly biased results. This study identifies three conditions that can give rise to these severe biases: (1) lack of fit of the log of concentration vs. log discharge relationship, (2) substantial differences in the shape of this relationship across seasons, and (3) severely heteroscedastic residuals. The WRTDS model is more resistant to the bias problem than the LOADEST models but is not immune to them. Understanding the causes of the bias problem is crucial to selecting an appropriate method for flux computations. Diagnostic tools for identifying the potential for bias problems are introduced, and strategies for resolving bias problems are described.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Hongjian Wang
2014-01-01
Full Text Available We present a support vector regression-based adaptive divided difference filter (SVRADDF algorithm for improving the low state estimation accuracy of nonlinear systems, which are typically affected by large initial estimation errors and imprecise prior knowledge of process and measurement noises. The derivative-free SVRADDF algorithm is significantly simpler to compute than other methods and is implemented using only functional evaluations. The SVRADDF algorithm involves the use of the theoretical and actual covariance of the innovation sequence. Support vector regression (SVR is employed to generate the adaptive factor to tune the noise covariance at each sampling instant when the measurement update step executes, which improves the algorithm’s robustness. The performance of the proposed algorithm is evaluated by estimating states for (i an underwater nonmaneuvering target bearing-only tracking system and (ii maneuvering target bearing-only tracking in an air-traffic control system. The simulation results show that the proposed SVRADDF algorithm exhibits better performance when compared with a traditional DDF algorithm.
Cawyer, Chase R; Anderson, Sarah B; Szychowski, Jeff M; Neely, Cherry; Owen, John
2018-03-01
To compare the accuracy of a new regression-derived formula developed from the National Fetal Growth Studies data to the common alternative method that uses the average of the gestational ages (GAs) calculated for each fetal biometric measurement (biparietal diameter, head circumference, abdominal circumference, and femur length). This retrospective cross-sectional study identified nonanomalous singleton pregnancies that had a crown-rump length plus at least 1 additional sonographic examination with complete fetal biometric measurements. With the use of the crown-rump length to establish the referent estimated date of delivery, each method's (National Institute of Child Health and Human Development regression versus Hadlock average [Radiology 1984; 152:497-501]), error at every examination was computed. Error, defined as the difference between the crown-rump length-derived GA and each method's predicted GA (weeks), was compared in 3 GA intervals: 1 (14 weeks-20 weeks 6 days), 2 (21 weeks-28 weeks 6 days), and 3 (≥29 weeks). In addition, the proportion of each method's examinations that had errors outside prespecified (±) day ranges was computed by using odds ratios. A total of 16,904 sonograms were identified. The overall and prespecified GA range subset mean errors were significantly smaller for the regression compared to the average (P < .01), and the regression had significantly lower odds of observing examinations outside the specified range of error in GA intervals 2 (odds ratio, 1.15; 95% confidence interval, 1.01-1.31) and 3 (odds ratio, 1.24; 95% confidence interval, 1.17-1.32) than the average method. In a contemporary unselected population of women dated by a crown-rump length-derived GA, the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development regression formula produced fewer estimates outside a prespecified margin of error than the commonly used Hadlock average; the differences were most pronounced for GA estimates at 29 weeks and later.
Impact of regression methods on improved effects of soil structure on soil water retention estimates
Nguyen, Phuong Minh; De Pue, Jan; Le, Khoa Van; Cornelis, Wim
2015-06-01
Increasing the accuracy of pedotransfer functions (PTFs), an indirect method for predicting non-readily available soil features such as soil water retention characteristics (SWRC), is of crucial importance for large scale agro-hydrological modeling. Adding significant predictors (i.e., soil structure), and implementing more flexible regression algorithms are among the main strategies of PTFs improvement. The aim of this study was to investigate whether the improved effect of categorical soil structure information on estimating soil-water content at various matric potentials, which has been reported in literature, could be enduringly captured by regression techniques other than the usually applied linear regression. Two data mining techniques, i.e., Support Vector Machines (SVM), and k-Nearest Neighbors (kNN), which have been recently introduced as promising tools for PTF development, were utilized to test if the incorporation of soil structure will improve PTF's accuracy under a context of rather limited training data. The results show that incorporating descriptive soil structure information, i.e., massive, structured and structureless, as grouping criterion can improve the accuracy of PTFs derived by SVM approach in the range of matric potential of -6 to -33 kPa (average RMSE decreased up to 0.005 m3 m-3 after grouping, depending on matric potentials). The improvement was primarily attributed to the outperformance of SVM-PTFs calibrated on structureless soils. No improvement was obtained with kNN technique, at least not in our study in which the data set became limited in size after grouping. Since there is an impact of regression techniques on the improved effect of incorporating qualitative soil structure information, selecting a proper technique will help to maximize the combined influence of flexible regression algorithms and soil structure information on PTF accuracy.
Larson, Steven J.; Crawford, Charles G.; Gilliom, Robert J.
2004-01-01
Regression models were developed for predicting atrazine concentration distributions in rivers and streams, using the Watershed Regressions for Pesticides (WARP) methodology. Separate regression equations were derived for each of nine percentiles of the annual distribution of atrazine concentrations and for the annual time-weighted mean atrazine concentration. In addition, seasonal models were developed for two specific periods of the year--the high season, when the highest atrazine concentrations are expected in streams, and the low season, when concentrations are expected to be low or undetectable. Various nationally available watershed parameters were used as explanatory variables, including atrazine use intensity, soil characteristics, hydrologic parameters, climate and weather variables, land use, and agricultural management practices. Concentration data from 112 river and stream stations sampled as part of the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water-Quality Assessment and National Stream Quality Accounting Network Programs were used for computing the concentration percentiles and mean concentrations used as the response variables in regression models. Tobit regression methods, using maximum likelihood estimation, were used for developing the models because some of the concentration values used for the response variables were censored (reported as less than a detection threshold). Data from 26 stations not used for model development were used for model validation. The annual models accounted for 62 to 77 percent of the variability in concentrations among the 112 model development stations. Atrazine use intensity (the amount of atrazine used in the watershed divided by watershed area) was the most important explanatory variable in all models, but additional watershed parameters significantly increased the amount of variability explained by the models. Predicted concentrations from all 10 models were within a factor of 10 of the observed concentrations at most
Estimation of Electrically-Evoked Knee Torque from Mechanomyography Using Support Vector Regression
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Morufu Olusola Ibitoye
2016-07-01
Full Text Available The difficulty of real-time muscle force or joint torque estimation during neuromuscular electrical stimulation (NMES in physical therapy and exercise science has motivated recent research interest in torque estimation from other muscle characteristics. This study investigated the accuracy of a computational intelligence technique for estimating NMES-evoked knee extension torque based on the Mechanomyographic signals (MMG of contracting muscles that were recorded from eight healthy males. Simulation of the knee torque was modelled via Support Vector Regression (SVR due to its good generalization ability in related fields. Inputs to the proposed model were MMG amplitude characteristics, the level of electrical stimulation or contraction intensity, and knee angle. Gaussian kernel function, as well as its optimal parameters were identified with the best performance measure and were applied as the SVR kernel function to build an effective knee torque estimation model. To train and test the model, the data were partitioned into training (70% and testing (30% subsets, respectively. The SVR estimation accuracy, based on the coefficient of determination (R2 between the actual and the estimated torque values was up to 94% and 89% during the training and testing cases, with root mean square errors (RMSE of 9.48 and 12.95, respectively. The knee torque estimations obtained using SVR modelling agreed well with the experimental data from an isokinetic dynamometer. These findings support the realization of a closed-loop NMES system for functional tasks using MMG as the feedback signal source and an SVR algorithm for joint torque estimation.
The Roots of Inequality: Estimating Inequality of Opportunity from Regression Trees
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Brunori, Paolo; Hufe, Paul; Mahler, Daniel Gerszon
2017-01-01
the risk of arbitrary and ad-hoc model selection. Second, they provide a standardized way of trading off upward and downward biases in inequality of opportunity estimations. Finally, regression trees can be graphically represented; their structure is immediate to read and easy to understand. This will make...... the measurement of inequality of opportunity more easily comprehensible to a large audience. These advantages are illustrated by an empirical application based on the 2011 wave of the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions....
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bae, In Ho; Naa, Man Gyun; Lee, Yoon Joon; Park, Goon Cherl
2009-01-01
The monitoring of detailed 3-dimensional (3D) reactor core power distribution is a prerequisite in the operation of nuclear power reactors to ensure that various safety limits imposed on the LPD and DNBR, are not violated during nuclear power reactor operation. The LPD and DNBR should be calculated in order to perform the two major functions of the core protection calculator system (CPCS) and the core operation limit supervisory system (COLSS). The LPD at the hottest part of a hot fuel rod, which is related to the power peaking factor (PPF, F q ), is more important than the LPD at any other position in a reactor core. The LPD needs to be estimated accurately to prevent nuclear fuel rods from melting. In this study, support vector regression (SVR) and uncertainty analysis have been applied to estimation of reactor core power peaking factor
Soil moisture estimation using multi linear regression with terraSAR-X data
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
G. García
2016-06-01
Full Text Available The first five centimeters of soil form an interface where the main heat fluxes exchanges between the land surface and the atmosphere occur. Besides ground measurements, remote sensing has proven to be an excellent tool for the monitoring of spatial and temporal distributed data of the most relevant Earth surface parameters including soil’s parameters. Indeed, active microwave sensors (Synthetic Aperture Radar - SAR offer the opportunity to monitor soil moisture (HS at global, regional and local scales by monitoring involved processes. Several inversion algorithms, that derive geophysical information as HS from SAR data, were developed. Many of them use electromagnetic models for simulating the backscattering coefficient and are based on statistical techniques, such as neural networks, inversion methods and regression models. Recent studies have shown that simple multiple regression techniques yield satisfactory results. The involved geophysical variables in these methodologies are descriptive of the soil structure, microwave characteristics and land use. Therefore, in this paper we aim at developing a multiple linear regression model to estimate HS on flat agricultural regions using TerraSAR-X satellite data and data from a ground weather station. The results show that the backscatter, the precipitation and the relative humidity are the explanatory variables of HS. The results obtained presented a RMSE of 5.4 and a R2 of about 0.6
Estimation of genetic parameters related to eggshell strength using random regression models.
Guo, J; Ma, M; Qu, L; Shen, M; Dou, T; Wang, K
2015-01-01
This study examined the changes in eggshell strength and the genetic parameters related to this trait throughout a hen's laying life using random regression. The data were collected from a crossbred population between 2011 and 2014, where the eggshell strength was determined repeatedly for 2260 hens. Using random regression models (RRMs), several Legendre polynomials were employed to estimate the fixed, direct genetic and permanent environment effects. The residual effects were treated as independently distributed with heterogeneous variance for each test week. The direct genetic variance was included with second-order Legendre polynomials and the permanent environment with third-order Legendre polynomials. The heritability of eggshell strength ranged from 0.26 to 0.43, the repeatability ranged between 0.47 and 0.69, and the estimated genetic correlations between test weeks was high at > 0.67. The first eigenvalue of the genetic covariance matrix accounted for about 97% of the sum of all the eigenvalues. The flexibility and statistical power of RRM suggest that this model could be an effective method to improve eggshell quality and to reduce losses due to cracked eggs in a breeding plan.
Estimating the Impact of Urbanization on Air Quality in China Using Spatial Regression Models
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Chuanglin Fang
2015-11-01
Full Text Available Urban air pollution is one of the most visible environmental problems to have accompanied China’s rapid urbanization. Based on emission inventory data from 2014, gathered from 289 cities, we used Global and Local Moran’s I to measure the spatial autorrelation of Air Quality Index (AQI values at the city level, and employed Ordinary Least Squares (OLS, Spatial Lag Model (SAR, and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR to quantitatively estimate the comprehensive impact and spatial variations of China’s urbanization process on air quality. The results show that a significant spatial dependence and heterogeneity existed in AQI values. Regression models revealed urbanization has played an important negative role in determining air quality in Chinese cities. The population, urbanization rate, automobile density, and the proportion of secondary industry were all found to have had a significant influence over air quality. Per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP and the scale of urban land use, however, failed the significance test at 10% level. The GWR model performed better than global models and the results of GWR modeling show that the relationship between urbanization and air quality was not constant in space. Further, the local parameter estimates suggest significant spatial variation in the impacts of various urbanization factors on air quality.
Support vector regression methodology for estimating global solar radiation in Algeria
Guermoui, Mawloud; Rabehi, Abdelaziz; Gairaa, Kacem; Benkaciali, Said
2018-01-01
Accurate estimation of Daily Global Solar Radiation (DGSR) has been a major goal for solar energy applications. In this paper we show the possibility of developing a simple model based on the Support Vector Regression (SVM-R), which could be used to estimate DGSR on the horizontal surface in Algeria based only on sunshine ratio as input. The SVM model has been developed and tested using a data set recorded over three years (2005-2007). The data was collected at the Applied Research Unit for Renewable Energies (URAER) in Ghardaïa city. The data collected between 2005-2006 are used to train the model while the 2007 data are used to test the performance of the selected model. The measured and the estimated values of DGSR were compared during the testing phase statistically using the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Relative Square Error (rRMSE), and correlation coefficient (r2), which amount to 1.59(MJ/m2), 8.46 and 97,4%, respectively. The obtained results show that the SVM-R is highly qualified for DGSR estimation using only sunshine ratio.
Flexible regression models for estimating postmortem interval (PMI) in forensic medicine.
Muñoz Barús, José Ignacio; Febrero-Bande, Manuel; Cadarso-Suárez, Carmen
2008-10-30
Correct determination of time of death is an important goal in forensic medicine. Numerous methods have been described for estimating postmortem interval (PMI), but most are imprecise, poorly reproducible and/or have not been validated with real data. In recent years, however, some progress in PMI estimation has been made, notably through the use of new biochemical methods for quantifying relevant indicator compounds in the vitreous humour. The best, but unverified, results have been obtained with [K+] and hypoxanthine [Hx], using simple linear regression (LR) models. The main aim of this paper is to offer more flexible alternatives to LR, such as generalized additive models (GAMs) and support vector machines (SVMs) in order to obtain improved PMI estimates. The present study, based on detailed analysis of [K+] and [Hx] in more than 200 vitreous humour samples from subjects with known PMI, compared classical LR methodology with GAM and SVM methodologies. Both proved better than LR for estimation of PMI. SVM showed somewhat greater precision than GAM, but GAM offers a readily interpretable graphical output, facilitating understanding of findings by legal professionals; there are thus arguments for using both types of models. R code for these methods is available from the authors, permitting accurate prediction of PMI from vitreous humour [K+], [Hx] and [U], with confidence intervals and graphical output provided. Copyright 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Evaluation of Regression and Neuro_Fuzzy Models in Estimating Saturated Hydraulic Conductivity
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
J. Behmanesh
2015-06-01
Full Text Available Study of soil hydraulic properties such as saturated and unsaturated hydraulic conductivity is required in the environmental investigations. Despite numerous research, measuring saturated hydraulic conductivity using by direct methods are still costly, time consuming and professional. Therefore estimating saturated hydraulic conductivity using rapid and low cost methods such as pedo-transfer functions with acceptable accuracy was developed. The purpose of this research was to compare and evaluate 11 pedo-transfer functions and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS to estimate saturated hydraulic conductivity of soil. In this direct, saturated hydraulic conductivity and physical properties in 40 points of Urmia were calculated. The soil excavated was used in the lab to determine its easily accessible parameters. The results showed that among existing models, Aimrun et al model had the best estimation for soil saturated hydraulic conductivity. For mentioned model, the Root Mean Square Error and Mean Absolute Error parameters were 0.174 and 0.028 m/day respectively. The results of the present research, emphasises the importance of effective porosity application as an important accessible parameter in accuracy of pedo-transfer functions. sand and silt percent, bulk density and soil particle density were selected to apply in 561 ANFIS models. In training phase of best ANFIS model, the R2 and RMSE were calculated 1 and 1.2×10-7 respectively. These amounts in the test phase were 0.98 and 0.0006 respectively. Comparison of regression and ANFIS models showed that the ANFIS model had better results than regression functions. Also Nuro-Fuzzy Inference System had capability to estimatae with high accuracy in various soil textures.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Gholam Reza Sheykhzadeh
2017-02-01
Full Text Available Introduction: Penetration resistance is one of the criteria for evaluating soil compaction. It correlates with several soil properties such as vehicle trafficability, resistance to root penetration, seedling emergence, and soil compaction by farm machinery. Direct measurement of penetration resistance is time consuming and difficult because of high temporal and spatial variability. Therefore, many different regressions and artificial neural network pedotransfer functions have been proposed to estimate penetration resistance from readily available soil variables such as particle size distribution, bulk density (Db and gravimetric water content (θm. The lands of Ardabil Province are one of the main production regions of potato in Iran, thus, obtaining the soil penetration resistance in these regions help with the management of potato production. The objective of this research was to derive pedotransfer functions by using regression and artificial neural network to predict penetration resistance from some soil variations in the agricultural soils of Ardabil plain and to compare the performance of artificial neural network with regression models. Materials and methods: Disturbed and undisturbed soil samples (n= 105 were systematically taken from 0-10 cm soil depth with nearly 3000 m distance in the agricultural lands of the Ardabil plain ((lat 38°15' to 38°40' N, long 48°16' to 48°61' E. The contents of sand, silt and clay (hydrometer method, CaCO3 (titration method, bulk density (cylinder method, particle density (Dp (pychnometer method, organic carbon (wet oxidation method, total porosity(calculating from Db and Dp, saturated (θs and field soil water (θf using the gravimetric method were measured in the laboratory. Mean geometric diameter (dg and standard deviation (σg of soil particles were computed using the percentages of sand, silt and clay. Penetration resistance was measured in situ using cone penetrometer (analog model at 10
A regressive methodology for estimating missing data in rainfall daily time series
Barca, E.; Passarella, G.
2009-04-01
The "presence" of gaps in environmental data time series represents a very common, but extremely critical problem, since it can produce biased results (Rubin, 1976). Missing data plagues almost all surveys. The problem is how to deal with missing data once it has been deemed impossible to recover the actual missing values. Apart from the amount of missing data, another issue which plays an important role in the choice of any recovery approach is the evaluation of "missingness" mechanisms. When data missing is conditioned by some other variable observed in the data set (Schafer, 1997) the mechanism is called MAR (Missing at Random). Otherwise, when the missingness mechanism depends on the actual value of the missing data, it is called NCAR (Not Missing at Random). This last is the most difficult condition to model. In the last decade interest arose in the estimation of missing data by using regression (single imputation). More recently multiple imputation has become also available, which returns a distribution of estimated values (Scheffer, 2002). In this paper an automatic methodology for estimating missing data is presented. In practice, given a gauging station affected by missing data (target station), the methodology checks the randomness of the missing data and classifies the "similarity" between the target station and the other gauging stations spread over the study area. Among different methods useful for defining the similarity degree, whose effectiveness strongly depends on the data distribution, the Spearman correlation coefficient was chosen. Once defined the similarity matrix, a suitable, nonparametric, univariate, and regressive method was applied in order to estimate missing data in the target station: the Theil method (Theil, 1950). Even though the methodology revealed to be rather reliable an improvement of the missing data estimation can be achieved by a generalization. A first possible improvement consists in extending the univariate technique to
Tang, Robert; Tian, Linwei; Thach, Thuan-Quoc; Tsui, Tsz Him; Brauer, Michael; Lee, Martha; Allen, Ryan; Yuchi, Weiran; Lai, Poh-Chin; Wong, Paulina; Barratt, Benjamin
2018-04-01
Epidemiological studies typically use subjects' residential address to estimate individuals' air pollution exposure. However, in reality this exposure is rarely static as people move from home to work/study locations and commute during the day. Integrating mobility and time-activity data may reduce errors and biases, thereby improving estimates of health risks. To incorporate land use regression with movement and building infiltration data to estimate time-weighted air pollution exposures stratified by age, sex, and employment status for population subgroups in Hong Kong. A large population-representative survey (N = 89,385) was used to characterize travel behavior, and derive time-activity pattern for each subject. Infiltration factors calculated from indoor/outdoor monitoring campaigns were used to estimate micro-environmental concentrations. We evaluated dynamic and static (residential location-only) exposures in a staged modeling approach to quantify effects of each component. Higher levels of exposures were found for working adults and students due to increased mobility. Compared to subjects aged 65 or older, exposures to PM 2.5 , BC, and NO 2 were 13%, 39% and 14% higher, respectively for subjects aged below 18, and 3%, 18% and 11% higher, respectively for working adults. Exposures of females were approximately 4% lower than those of males. Dynamic exposures were around 20% lower than ambient exposures at residential addresses. The incorporation of infiltration and mobility increased heterogeneity in population exposure and allowed identification of highly exposed groups. The use of ambient concentrations may lead to exposure misclassification which introduces bias, resulting in lower effect estimates than 'true' exposures. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Improved regression models for ventilation estimation based on chest and abdomen movements
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Liu, Shaopeng; Gao, Robert; He, Qingbo; Staudenmayer, John; Freedson, Patty
2012-01-01
Non-invasive estimation of minute ventilation is important for quantifying the intensity of physical activity of individuals. In this paper, several improved regression models are presented, based on the measurement of chest and abdomen movements from sensor belts worn by subjects (n = 50) engaged in 14 types of physical activity. Five linear models involving a combination of 11 features were developed, and the effects of different model training approaches and window sizes for computing the features were investigated. The performance of the models was evaluated using experimental data collected during the physical activity protocol. The predicted minute ventilation was compared to the criterion ventilation measured using a bidirectional digital volume transducer housed in a respiratory gas exchange system. The results indicate that the inclusion of breathing frequency and the use of percentile points instead of interdecile ranges over a 60 s window size reduced error by about 43%, when applied to the classical two-degrees-of-freedom model. The mean percentage error of the minute ventilation estimated for all the activities was below 7.5%, verifying reasonably good performance of the models and the applicability of the wearable sensing system for minute ventilation estimation during physical activity. (paper)
Oldenburg, Catherine E; Venkatesh Prajna, N; Krishnan, Tiruvengada; Rajaraman, Revathi; Srinivasan, Muthiah; Ray, Kathryn J; O'Brien, Kieran S; Glymour, M Maria; Porco, Travis C; Acharya, Nisha R; Rose-Nussbaumer, Jennifer; Lietman, Thomas M
2018-08-01
We compare results from regression discontinuity (RD) analysis to primary results of a randomized controlled trial (RCT) utilizing data from two contemporaneous RCTs for treatment of fungal corneal ulcers. Patients were enrolled in the Mycotic Ulcer Treatment Trials I and II (MUTT I & MUTT II) based on baseline visual acuity: patients with acuity ≤ 20/400 (logMAR 1.3) enrolled in MUTT I, and >20/400 in MUTT II. MUTT I investigated the effect of topical natamycin versus voriconazole on best spectacle-corrected visual acuity. MUTT II investigated the effect of topical voriconazole plus placebo versus topical voriconazole plus oral voriconazole. We compared the RD estimate (natamycin arm of MUTT I [N = 162] versus placebo arm of MUTT II [N = 54]) to the RCT estimate from MUTT I (topical natamycin [N = 162] versus topical voriconazole [N = 161]). In the RD, patients receiving natamycin had mean improvement of 4-lines of visual acuity at 3 months (logMAR -0.39, 95% CI: -0.61, -0.17) compared to topical voriconazole plus placebo, and 2-lines in the RCT (logMAR -0.18, 95% CI: -0.30, -0.05) compared to topical voriconazole. The RD and RCT estimates were similar, although the RD design overestimated effects compared to the RCT.
Spady, Richard; Stouli, Sami
2012-01-01
We propose dual regression as an alternative to the quantile regression process for the global estimation of conditional distribution functions under minimal assumptions. Dual regression provides all the interpretational power of the quantile regression process while avoiding the need for repairing the intersecting conditional quantile surfaces that quantile regression often produces in practice. Our approach introduces a mathematical programming characterization of conditional distribution f...
Novikov, I; Fund, N; Freedman, L S
2010-01-15
Different methods for the calculation of sample size for simple logistic regression (LR) with one normally distributed continuous covariate give different results. Sometimes the difference can be large. Furthermore, some methods require the user to specify the prevalence of cases when the covariate equals its population mean, rather than the more natural population prevalence. We focus on two commonly used methods and show through simulations that the power for a given sample size may differ substantially from the nominal value for one method, especially when the covariate effect is large, while the other method performs poorly if the user provides the population prevalence instead of the required parameter. We propose a modification of the method of Hsieh et al. that requires specification of the population prevalence and that employs Schouten's sample size formula for a t-test with unequal variances and group sizes. This approach appears to increase the accuracy of the sample size estimates for LR with one continuous covariate.
A Note on Penalized Regression Spline Estimation in the Secondary Analysis of Case-Control Data
Gazioglu, Suzan; Wei, Jiawei; Jennings, Elizabeth M.; Carroll, Raymond J.
2013-01-01
Primary analysis of case-control studies focuses on the relationship between disease (D) and a set of covariates of interest (Y, X). A secondary application of the case-control study, often invoked in modern genetic epidemiologic association studies, is to investigate the interrelationship between the covariates themselves. The task is complicated due to the case-control sampling, and to avoid the biased sampling that arises from the design, it is typical to use the control data only. In this paper, we develop penalized regression spline methodology that uses all the data, and improves precision of estimation compared to using only the controls. A simulation study and an empirical example are used to illustrate the methodology.
A Note on Penalized Regression Spline Estimation in the Secondary Analysis of Case-Control Data
Gazioglu, Suzan
2013-05-25
Primary analysis of case-control studies focuses on the relationship between disease (D) and a set of covariates of interest (Y, X). A secondary application of the case-control study, often invoked in modern genetic epidemiologic association studies, is to investigate the interrelationship between the covariates themselves. The task is complicated due to the case-control sampling, and to avoid the biased sampling that arises from the design, it is typical to use the control data only. In this paper, we develop penalized regression spline methodology that uses all the data, and improves precision of estimation compared to using only the controls. A simulation study and an empirical example are used to illustrate the methodology.
Messier, Kyle P; Akita, Yasuyuki; Serre, Marc L
2012-03-06
Geographic information systems (GIS) based techniques are cost-effective and efficient methods used by state agencies and epidemiology researchers for estimating concentration and exposure. However, budget limitations have made statewide assessments of contamination difficult, especially in groundwater media. Many studies have implemented address geocoding, land use regression, and geostatistics independently, but this is the first to examine the benefits of integrating these GIS techniques to address the need of statewide exposure assessments. A novel framework for concentration exposure is introduced that integrates address geocoding, land use regression (LUR), below detect data modeling, and Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME). A LUR model was developed for tetrachloroethylene that accounts for point sources and flow direction. We then integrate the LUR model into the BME method as a mean trend while also modeling below detects data as a truncated Gaussian probability distribution function. We increase available PCE data 4.7 times from previously available databases through multistage geocoding. The LUR model shows significant influence of dry cleaners at short ranges. The integration of the LUR model as mean trend in BME results in a 7.5% decrease in cross validation mean square error compared to BME with a constant mean trend.
Al-Mudhafar, W. J.
2013-12-01
Precisely prediction of rock facies leads to adequate reservoir characterization by improving the porosity-permeability relationships to estimate the properties in non-cored intervals. It also helps to accurately identify the spatial facies distribution to perform an accurate reservoir model for optimal future reservoir performance. In this paper, the facies estimation has been done through Multinomial logistic regression (MLR) with respect to the well logs and core data in a well in upper sandstone formation of South Rumaila oil field. The entire independent variables are gamma rays, formation density, water saturation, shale volume, log porosity, core porosity, and core permeability. Firstly, Robust Sequential Imputation Algorithm has been considered to impute the missing data. This algorithm starts from a complete subset of the dataset and estimates sequentially the missing values in an incomplete observation by minimizing the determinant of the covariance of the augmented data matrix. Then, the observation is added to the complete data matrix and the algorithm continues with the next observation with missing values. The MLR has been chosen to estimate the maximum likelihood and minimize the standard error for the nonlinear relationships between facies & core and log data. The MLR is used to predict the probabilities of the different possible facies given each independent variable by constructing a linear predictor function having a set of weights that are linearly combined with the independent variables by using a dot product. Beta distribution of facies has been considered as prior knowledge and the resulted predicted probability (posterior) has been estimated from MLR based on Baye's theorem that represents the relationship between predicted probability (posterior) with the conditional probability and the prior knowledge. To assess the statistical accuracy of the model, the bootstrap should be carried out to estimate extra-sample prediction error by randomly
Monopole and dipole estimation for multi-frequency sky maps by linear regression
Wehus, I. K.; Fuskeland, U.; Eriksen, H. K.; Banday, A. J.; Dickinson, C.; Ghosh, T.; Górski, K. M.; Lawrence, C. R.; Leahy, J. P.; Maino, D.; Reich, P.; Reich, W.
2017-01-01
We describe a simple but efficient method for deriving a consistent set of monopole and dipole corrections for multi-frequency sky map data sets, allowing robust parametric component separation with the same data set. The computational core of this method is linear regression between pairs of frequency maps, often called T-T plots. Individual contributions from monopole and dipole terms are determined by performing the regression locally in patches on the sky, while the degeneracy between different frequencies is lifted whenever the dominant foreground component exhibits a significant spatial spectral index variation. Based on this method, we present two different, but each internally consistent, sets of monopole and dipole coefficients for the nine-year WMAP, Planck 2013, SFD 100 μm, Haslam 408 MHz and Reich & Reich 1420 MHz maps. The two sets have been derived with different analysis assumptions and data selection, and provide an estimate of residual systematic uncertainties. In general, our values are in good agreement with previously published results. Among the most notable results are a relative dipole between the WMAP and Planck experiments of 10-15μK (depending on frequency), an estimate of the 408 MHz map monopole of 8.9 ± 1.3 K, and a non-zero dipole in the 1420 MHz map of 0.15 ± 0.03 K pointing towards Galactic coordinates (l,b) = (308°,-36°) ± 14°. These values represent the sum of any instrumental and data processing offsets, as well as any Galactic or extra-Galactic component that is spectrally uniform over the full sky.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Harlim, John; Mahdi, Adam; Majda, Andrew J.
2014-01-01
A central issue in contemporary science is the development of nonlinear data driven statistical–dynamical models for time series of noisy partial observations from nature or a complex model. It has been established recently that ad-hoc quadratic multi-level regression models can have finite-time blow-up of statistical solutions and/or pathological behavior of their invariant measure. Recently, a new class of physics constrained nonlinear regression models were developed to ameliorate this pathological behavior. Here a new finite ensemble Kalman filtering algorithm is developed for estimating the state, the linear and nonlinear model coefficients, the model and the observation noise covariances from available partial noisy observations of the state. Several stringent tests and applications of the method are developed here. In the most complex application, the perfect model has 57 degrees of freedom involving a zonal (east–west) jet, two topographic Rossby waves, and 54 nonlinearly interacting Rossby waves; the perfect model has significant non-Gaussian statistics in the zonal jet with blocked and unblocked regimes and a non-Gaussian skewed distribution due to interaction with the other 56 modes. We only observe the zonal jet contaminated by noise and apply the ensemble filter algorithm for estimation. Numerically, we find that a three dimensional nonlinear stochastic model with one level of memory mimics the statistical effect of the other 56 modes on the zonal jet in an accurate fashion, including the skew non-Gaussian distribution and autocorrelation decay. On the other hand, a similar stochastic model with zero memory levels fails to capture the crucial non-Gaussian behavior of the zonal jet from the perfect 57-mode model
Estimation of the laser cutting operating cost by support vector regression methodology
Jović, Srđan; Radović, Aleksandar; Šarkoćević, Živče; Petković, Dalibor; Alizamir, Meysam
2016-09-01
Laser cutting is a popular manufacturing process utilized to cut various types of materials economically. The operating cost is affected by laser power, cutting speed, assist gas pressure, nozzle diameter and focus point position as well as the workpiece material. In this article, the process factors investigated were: laser power, cutting speed, air pressure and focal point position. The aim of this work is to relate the operating cost to the process parameters mentioned above. CO2 laser cutting of stainless steel of medical grade AISI316L has been investigated. The main goal was to analyze the operating cost through the laser power, cutting speed, air pressure, focal point position and material thickness. Since the laser operating cost is a complex, non-linear task, soft computing optimization algorithms can be used. Intelligent soft computing scheme support vector regression (SVR) was implemented. The performance of the proposed estimator was confirmed with the simulation results. The SVR results are then compared with artificial neural network and genetic programing. According to the results, a greater improvement in estimation accuracy can be achieved through the SVR compared to other soft computing methodologies. The new optimization methods benefit from the soft computing capabilities of global optimization and multiobjective optimization rather than choosing a starting point by trial and error and combining multiple criteria into a single criterion.
Estimating carbon and showing impacts of drought using satellite data in regression-tree models
Boyte, Stephen; Wylie, Bruce K.; Howard, Danny; Dahal, Devendra; Gilmanov, Tagir G.
2018-01-01
Integrating spatially explicit biogeophysical and remotely sensed data into regression-tree models enables the spatial extrapolation of training data over large geographic spaces, allowing a better understanding of broad-scale ecosystem processes. The current study presents annual gross primary production (GPP) and annual ecosystem respiration (RE) for 2000–2013 in several short-statured vegetation types using carbon flux data from towers that are located strategically across the conterminous United States (CONUS). We calculate carbon fluxes (annual net ecosystem production [NEP]) for each year in our study period, which includes 2012 when drought and higher-than-normal temperatures influence vegetation productivity in large parts of the study area. We present and analyse carbon flux dynamics in the CONUS to better understand how drought affects GPP, RE, and NEP. Model accuracy metrics show strong correlation coefficients (r) (r ≥ 94%) between training and estimated data for both GPP and RE. Overall, average annual GPP, RE, and NEP are relatively constant throughout the study period except during 2012 when almost 60% less carbon is sequestered than normal. These results allow us to conclude that this modelling method effectively estimates carbon dynamics through time and allows the exploration of impacts of meteorological anomalies and vegetation types on carbon dynamics.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Luukkonen, A.; Korkealaakso, J.; Pitkaenen, P. [VTT Communities and Infrastructure, Espoo (Finland)
1997-11-01
Teollisuuden Voima Oy selected five investigation areas for preliminary site studies (1987Ae1992). The more detailed site investigation project, launched at the beginning of 1993 and presently supervised by Posiva Oy, is concentrated to three investigation areas. Romuvaara at Kuhmo is one of the present target areas, and the geochemical, structural and hydrological data used in this study are extracted from there. The aim of the study is to develop suitable methods for groundwater composition estimation based on a group of known hydrogeological variables. The input variables used are related to the host type of groundwater, hydrological conditions around the host location, mixing potentials between different types of groundwater, and minerals equilibrated with the groundwater. The output variables are electrical conductivity, Ca, Mg, Mn, Na, K, Fe, Cl, S, HS, SO{sub 4}, alkalinity, {sup 3}H, {sup 14}C, {sup 13}C, Al, Sr, F, Br and I concentrations, and pH of the groundwater. The methodology is to associate the known hydrogeological conditions (i.e. input variables), with the known water compositions (output variables), and to evaluate mathematical relations between these groups. Output estimations are done with two separate procedures: partial least squares regressions on the principal components of input variables, and by training neural networks with input-output pairs. Coefficients of linear equations and trained networks are optional methods for actual predictions. The quality of output predictions are monitored with confidence limit estimations, evaluated from input variable covariances and output variances, and with charge balance calculations. Groundwater compositions in Romuvaara borehole KR10 are predicted at 10 metre intervals with both prediction methods. 46 refs.
Hu, L; Zhang, Z G; Mouraux, A; Iannetti, G D
2015-05-01
Transient sensory, motor or cognitive event elicit not only phase-locked event-related potentials (ERPs) in the ongoing electroencephalogram (EEG), but also induce non-phase-locked modulations of ongoing EEG oscillations. These modulations can be detected when single-trial waveforms are analysed in the time-frequency domain, and consist in stimulus-induced decreases (event-related desynchronization, ERD) or increases (event-related synchronization, ERS) of synchrony in the activity of the underlying neuronal populations. ERD and ERS reflect changes in the parameters that control oscillations in neuronal networks and, depending on the frequency at which they occur, represent neuronal mechanisms involved in cortical activation, inhibition and binding. ERD and ERS are commonly estimated by averaging the time-frequency decomposition of single trials. However, their trial-to-trial variability that can reflect physiologically-important information is lost by across-trial averaging. Here, we aim to (1) develop novel approaches to explore single-trial parameters (including latency, frequency and magnitude) of ERP/ERD/ERS; (2) disclose the relationship between estimated single-trial parameters and other experimental factors (e.g., perceived intensity). We found that (1) stimulus-elicited ERP/ERD/ERS can be correctly separated using principal component analysis (PCA) decomposition with Varimax rotation on the single-trial time-frequency distributions; (2) time-frequency multiple linear regression with dispersion term (TF-MLRd) enhances the signal-to-noise ratio of ERP/ERD/ERS in single trials, and provides an unbiased estimation of their latency, frequency, and magnitude at single-trial level; (3) these estimates can be meaningfully correlated with each other and with other experimental factors at single-trial level (e.g., perceived stimulus intensity and ERP magnitude). The methods described in this article allow exploring fully non-phase-locked stimulus-induced cortical
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Bielecki, John
2003-01-01
.... Previous research has demonstrated the use of a two-step logistic and multiple regression methodology to predicting cost growth produces desirable results versus traditional single-step regression...
Outlier Detection in Regression Using an Iterated One-Step Approximation to the Huber-Skip Estimator
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Johansen, Søren; Nielsen, Bent
2013-01-01
In regression we can delete outliers based upon a preliminary estimator and reestimate the parameters by least squares based upon the retained observations. We study the properties of an iteratively defined sequence of estimators based on this idea. We relate the sequence to the Huber-skip estima......In regression we can delete outliers based upon a preliminary estimator and reestimate the parameters by least squares based upon the retained observations. We study the properties of an iteratively defined sequence of estimators based on this idea. We relate the sequence to the Huber...... that the normalized estimation errors are tight and are close to a linear function of the kernel, thus providing a stochastic expansion of the estimators, which is the same as for the Huber-skip. This implies that the iterated estimator is a close approximation of the Huber-skip...
The Growth Points of Regional Economy and Regression Estimation for Branch Investment Multipliers
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Nina Pavlovna Goridko
2018-03-01
Full Text Available The article develops the methodology of using investment multipliers to identify growth points for a regional economy. The paper discusses various options for the assessment of multiplicative effects caused by investments in certain sectors of the economy. All calculations are carried out on the example of economy of the Republic of Tatarstan for the period 2005–2015. The instrument of regression modeling using the method of least squares, permits to estimate sectoral and cross-sectoral investment multipliers in the economy of the Republic of Tatarstan. Moreover, this method allows to assess the elasticity of gross output of regional economy and its individual sectors depending on investment in various sectors of the economy. Calculations results allowed to identify three growth points of the economy of the Republic of Tatarstan. They are mining industry, manufacturing industry and construction. The success of a particular industry or sub-industry in a country or a region should be measured not only by its share in macro-system’s gross output or value added, but also by the multiplicative effect that investments in the industry have on the development of other industries, on employment and on general national or regional product. In recent years, the growth of the Russian was close to zero. Thus, it is crucial to understand the structural consequences of the increasing investments in various sectors of the Russian economy. In this regard, the problems solved in the article are relevant for a number of countries and regions with a similar economic situation. The obtained results can be applied for similar estimations of investment multipliers as well as multipliers of government spending, and other components of aggregate demand in various countries and regions to identify growth points. Investments in these growth points will induce the greatest and the most evident increment of the outcome from the macro-system’s economic activities.
Estimation of Chinese surface NO2 concentrations combining satellite data and Land Use Regression
Anand, J.; Monks, P.
2016-12-01
Monitoring surface-level air quality is often limited by in-situ instrument placement and issues arising from harmonisation over long timescales. Satellite instruments can offer a synoptic view of regional pollution sources, but in many cases only a total or tropospheric column can be measured. In this work a new technique of estimating surface NO2 combining both satellite and in-situ data is presented, in which a Land Use Regression (LUR) model is used to create high resolution pollution maps based on known predictor variables such as population density, road networks, and land cover. By employing a mixed effects approach, it is possible to take advantage of the spatiotemporal variability in the satellite-derived column densities to account for daily and regional variations in surface NO2 caused by factors such as temperature, elevation, and wind advection. In this work, surface NO2 maps are modelled over the North China Plain and Pearl River Delta during high-pollution episodes by combining in-situ measurements and tropospheric columns from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI). The modelled concentrations show good agreement with in-situ data and surface NO2 concentrations derived from the MACC-II global reanalysis.
Estimated prevalence of halitosis: a systematic review and meta-regression analysis.
Silva, Manuela F; Leite, Fábio R M; Ferreira, Larissa B; Pola, Natália M; Scannapieco, Frank A; Demarco, Flávio F; Nascimento, Gustavo G
2018-01-01
This study aims to conduct a systematic review to determine the prevalence of halitosis in adolescents and adults. Electronic searches were performed using four different databases without restrictions: PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, and SciELO. Population-based observational studies that provided data about the prevalence of halitosis in adolescents and adults were included. Additionally, meta-analyses, meta-regression, and sensitivity analyses were conducted to synthesize the evidence. A total of 584 articles were initially found and considered for title and abstract evaluation. Thirteen articles met inclusion criteria. The combined prevalence of halitosis was found to be 31.8% (95% CI 24.6-39.0%). Methodological aspects such as the year of publication and the socioeconomic status of the country where the study was conducted seemed to influence the prevalence of halitosis. Our results demonstrated that the estimated prevalence of halitosis was 31.8%, with high heterogeneity between studies. The results suggest a worldwide trend towards a rise in halitosis prevalence. Given the high prevalence of halitosis and its complex etiology, dental professionals should be aware of their roles in halitosis prevention and treatment.
ESTIMATION OF GENETIC PARAMETERS IN TROPICARNE CATTLE WITH RANDOM REGRESSION MODELS USING B-SPLINES
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Joel DomÃnguez Viveros
2015-04-01
Full Text Available The objectives were to estimate variance components, and direct (h2 and maternal (m2 heritability in the growth of Tropicarne cattle based on a random regression model using B-Splines for random effects modeling. Information from 12 890 monthly weightings of 1787 calves, from birth to 24 months old, was analyzed. The pedigree included 2504 animals. The random effects model included genetic and permanent environmental (direct and maternal of cubic order, and residuals. The fixed effects included contemporaneous groups (year â€“ season of weighed, sex and the covariate age of the cow (linear and quadratic. The B-Splines were defined in four knots through the growth period analyzed. Analyses were performed with the software Wombat. The variances (phenotypic and residual presented a similar behavior; of 7 to 12 months of age had a negative trend; from birth to 6 months and 13 to 18 months had positive trend; after 19 months were maintained constant. The m2 were low and near to zero, with an average of 0.06 in an interval of 0.04 to 0.11; the h2 also were close to zero, with an average of 0.10 in an interval of 0.03 to 0.23.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Lekadir, Karim, E-mail: karim.lekadir@upf.edu; Hoogendoorn, Corné [Center for Computational Imaging and Simulation Technologies in Biomedicine, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona 08018 (Spain); Armitage, Paul [The Academic Unit of Radiology, The University of Sheffield, Sheffield S10 2JF (United Kingdom); Whitby, Elspeth [The Academic Unit of Reproductive and Developmental Medicine, The University of Sheffield, Sheffield S10 2SF (United Kingdom); King, David [The Academic Unit of Child Health, The University of Sheffield, Sheffield S10 2TH (United Kingdom); Dimitri, Paul [The Mellanby Centre for Bone Research, The University of Sheffield, Sheffield S10 2RX (United Kingdom); Frangi, Alejandro F. [Center for Computational Imaging and Simulation Technologies in Biomedicine, The University of Sheffield, Sheffield S1 3JD (United Kingdom)
2016-06-15
Purpose: This paper presents a statistical approach for the prediction of trabecular bone parameters from low-resolution multisequence magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in children, thus addressing the limitations of high-resolution modalities such as HR-pQCT, including the significant exposure of young patients to radiation and the limited applicability of such modalities to peripheral bones in vivo. Methods: A statistical predictive model is constructed from a database of MRI and HR-pQCT datasets, to relate the low-resolution MRI appearance in the cancellous bone to the trabecular parameters extracted from the high-resolution images. The description of the MRI appearance is achieved between subjects by using a collection of feature descriptors, which describe the texture properties inside the cancellous bone, and which are invariant to the geometry and size of the trabecular areas. The predictive model is built by fitting to the training data a nonlinear partial least square regression between the input MRI features and the output trabecular parameters. Results: Detailed validation based on a sample of 96 datasets shows correlations >0.7 between the trabecular parameters predicted from low-resolution multisequence MRI based on the proposed statistical model and the values extracted from high-resolution HRp-QCT. Conclusions: The obtained results indicate the promise of the proposed predictive technique for the estimation of trabecular parameters in children from multisequence MRI, thus reducing the need for high-resolution radiation-based scans for a fragile population that is under development and growth.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Fruehwirth, R.
1993-01-01
We present an estimation procedure of the error components in a linear regression model with multiple independent stochastic error contributions. After solving the general problem we apply the results to the estimation of the actual trajectory in track fitting with multiple scattering. (orig.)
Penalized estimation for competing risks regression with applications to high-dimensional covariates
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Ambrogi, Federico; Scheike, Thomas H.
2016-01-01
of competing events. The direct binomial regression model of Scheike and others (2008. Predicting cumulative incidence probability by direct binomial regression. Biometrika 95: (1), 205-220) is reformulated in a penalized framework to possibly fit a sparse regression model. The developed approach is easily...... Research 19: (1), 29-51), the research regarding competing risks is less developed (Binder and others, 2009. Boosting for high-dimensional time-to-event data with competing risks. Bioinformatics 25: (7), 890-896). The aim of this work is to consider how to do penalized regression in the presence...... implementable using existing high-performance software to do penalized regression. Results from simulation studies are presented together with an application to genomic data when the endpoint is progression-free survival. An R function is provided to perform regularized competing risks regression according...
2017-12-01
Fig. 2 Simulation method; the process for one iteration of the simulation . It was repeated 250 times per combination of HR and FAR. Analysis was...distribution is unlimited. 8 Fig. 2 Simulation method; the process for one iteration of the simulation . It was repeated 250 times per combination of HR...stimuli. Simulations show that this regression method results in an unbiased and accurate estimate of target detection performance. The regression
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jibo Yue
2018-01-01
Full Text Available Above-ground biomass (AGB provides a vital link between solar energy consumption and yield, so its correct estimation is crucial to accurately monitor crop growth and predict yield. In this work, we estimate AGB by using 54 vegetation indexes (e.g., Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, Soil-Adjusted Vegetation Index and eight statistical regression techniques: artificial neural network (ANN, multivariable linear regression (MLR, decision-tree regression (DT, boosted binary regression tree (BBRT, partial least squares regression (PLSR, random forest regression (RF, support vector machine regression (SVM, and principal component regression (PCR, which are used to analyze hyperspectral data acquired by using a field spectrophotometer. The vegetation indexes (VIs determined from the spectra were first used to train regression techniques for modeling and validation to select the best VI input, and then summed with white Gaussian noise to study how remote sensing errors affect the regression techniques. Next, the VIs were divided into groups of different sizes by using various sampling methods for modeling and validation to test the stability of the techniques. Finally, the AGB was estimated by using a leave-one-out cross validation with these powerful techniques. The results of the study demonstrate that, of the eight techniques investigated, PLSR and MLR perform best in terms of stability and are most suitable when high-accuracy and stable estimates are required from relatively few samples. In addition, RF is extremely robust against noise and is best suited to deal with repeated observations involving remote-sensing data (i.e., data affected by atmosphere, clouds, observation times, and/or sensor noise. Finally, the leave-one-out cross-validation method indicates that PLSR provides the highest accuracy (R2 = 0.89, RMSE = 1.20 t/ha, MAE = 0.90 t/ha, NRMSE = 0.07, CV (RMSE = 0.18; thus, PLSR is best suited for works requiring high
Moore, Richard Bridge; Johnston, Craig M.; Robinson, Keith W.; Deacon, Jeffrey R.
2004-01-01
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) and the New England Interstate Water Pollution Control Commission (NEIWPCC), has developed a water-quality model, called SPARROW (Spatially Referenced Regressions on Watershed Attributes), to assist in regional total maximum daily load (TMDL) and nutrient-criteria activities in New England. SPARROW is a spatially detailed, statistical model that uses regression equations to relate total nitrogen and phosphorus (nutrient) stream loads to nutrient sources and watershed characteristics. The statistical relations in these equations are then used to predict nutrient loads in unmonitored streams. The New England SPARROW models are built using a hydrologic network of 42,000 stream reaches and associated watersheds. Watershed boundaries are defined for each stream reach in the network through the use of a digital elevation model and existing digitized watershed divides. Nutrient source data is from permitted wastewater discharge data from USEPA's Permit Compliance System (PCS), various land-use sources, and atmospheric deposition. Physical watershed characteristics include drainage area, land use, streamflow, time-of-travel, stream density, percent wetlands, slope of the land surface, and soil permeability. The New England SPARROW models for total nitrogen and total phosphorus have R-squared values of 0.95 and 0.94, with mean square errors of 0.16 and 0.23, respectively. Variables that were statistically significant in the total nitrogen model include permitted municipal-wastewater discharges, atmospheric deposition, agricultural area, and developed land area. Total nitrogen stream-loss rates were significant only in streams with average annual flows less than or equal to 2.83 cubic meters per second. In streams larger than this, there is nondetectable in-stream loss of annual total nitrogen in New England. Variables that were statistically significant in the total
A note on modeling of tumor regression for estimation of radiobiological parameters
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zhong, Hualiang; Chetty, Indrin
2014-01-01
Purpose: Accurate calculation of radiobiological parameters is crucial to predicting radiation treatment response. Modeling differences may have a significant impact on derived parameters. In this study, the authors have integrated two existing models with kinetic differential equations to formulate a new tumor regression model for estimation of radiobiological parameters for individual patients. Methods: A system of differential equations that characterizes the birth-and-death process of tumor cells in radiation treatment was analytically solved. The solution of this system was used to construct an iterative model (Z-model). The model consists of three parameters: tumor doubling time T d , half-life of dead cells T r , and cell survival fraction SF D under dose D. The Jacobian determinant of this model was proposed as a constraint to optimize the three parameters for six head and neck cancer patients. The derived parameters were compared with those generated from the two existing models: Chvetsov's model (C-model) and Lim's model (L-model). The C-model and L-model were optimized with the parameter T d fixed. Results: With the Jacobian-constrained Z-model, the mean of the optimized cell survival fractions is 0.43 ± 0.08, and the half-life of dead cells averaged over the six patients is 17.5 ± 3.2 days. The parameters T r and SF D optimized with the Z-model differ by 1.2% and 20.3% from those optimized with the T d -fixed C-model, and by 32.1% and 112.3% from those optimized with the T d -fixed L-model, respectively. Conclusions: The Z-model was analytically constructed from the differential equations of cell populations that describe changes in the number of different tumor cells during the course of radiation treatment. The Jacobian constraints were proposed to optimize the three radiobiological parameters. The generated model and its optimization method may help develop high-quality treatment regimens for individual patients
National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The application of the Bayesian theory of managing uncertainty and complexity to regression and classification in the form of Relevance Vector Machine (RVM), and to...
Carroll, Raymond J.; Delaigle, Aurore; Hall, Peter
2011-01-01
In many applications we can expect that, or are interested to know if, a density function or a regression curve satisfies some specific shape constraints. For example, when the explanatory variable, X, represents the value taken by a treatment
Lusiana, Evellin Dewi
2017-12-01
The parameters of binary probit regression model are commonly estimated by using Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) method. However, MLE method has limitation if the binary data contains separation. Separation is the condition where there are one or several independent variables that exactly grouped the categories in binary response. It will result the estimators of MLE method become non-convergent, so that they cannot be used in modeling. One of the effort to resolve the separation is using Firths approach instead. This research has two aims. First, to identify the chance of separation occurrence in binary probit regression model between MLE method and Firths approach. Second, to compare the performance of binary probit regression model estimator that obtained by MLE method and Firths approach using RMSE criteria. Those are performed using simulation method and under different sample size. The results showed that the chance of separation occurrence in MLE method for small sample size is higher than Firths approach. On the other hand, for larger sample size, the probability decreased and relatively identic between MLE method and Firths approach. Meanwhile, Firths estimators have smaller RMSE than MLEs especially for smaller sample sizes. But for larger sample sizes, the RMSEs are not much different. It means that Firths estimators outperformed MLE estimator.
Singh, Jagmahender; Pathak, R K; Chavali, Krishnadutt H
2011-03-20
Skeletal height estimation from regression analysis of eight sternal lengths in the subjects of Chandigarh zone of Northwest India is the topic of discussion in this study. Analysis of eight sternal lengths (length of manubrium, length of mesosternum, combined length of manubrium and mesosternum, total sternal length and first four intercostals lengths of mesosternum) measured from 252 male and 91 female sternums obtained at postmortems revealed that mean cadaver stature and sternal lengths were more in North Indians and males than the South Indians and females. Except intercostal lengths, all the sternal lengths were positively correlated with stature of the deceased in both sexes (P regression analysis of sternal lengths was found more useful than the linear regression for stature estimation. Using multivariate regression analysis, the combined length of manubrium and mesosternum in both sexes and the length of manubrium along with 2nd and 3rd intercostal lengths of mesosternum in males were selected as best estimators of stature. Nonetheless, the stature of males can be predicted with SEE of 6.66 (R(2) = 0.16, r = 0.318) from combination of MBL+BL_3+LM+BL_2, and in females from MBL only, it can be estimated with SEE of 6.65 (R(2) = 0.10, r = 0.318), whereas from the multiple regression analysis of pooled data, stature can be known with SEE of 6.97 (R(2) = 0.387, r = 575) from the combination of MBL+LM+BL_2+TSL+BL_3. The R(2) and F-ratio were found to be statistically significant for almost all the variables in both the sexes, except 4th intercostal length in males and 2nd to 4th intercostal lengths in females. The 'major' sternal lengths were more useful than the 'minor' ones for stature estimation The universal regression analysis used by Kanchan et al. [39] when applied to sternal lengths, gave satisfactory estimates of stature for males only but female stature was comparatively better estimated from simple linear regressions. But they are not proposed for the
Sun, Jianguo; Feng, Yanqin; Zhao, Hui
2015-01-01
Interval-censored failure time data occur in many fields including epidemiological and medical studies as well as financial and sociological studies, and many authors have investigated their analysis (Sun, The statistical analysis of interval-censored failure time data, 2006; Zhang, Stat Modeling 9:321-343, 2009). In particular, a number of procedures have been developed for regression analysis of interval-censored data arising from the proportional hazards model (Finkelstein, Biometrics 42:845-854, 1986; Huang, Ann Stat 24:540-568, 1996; Pan, Biometrics 56:199-203, 2000). For most of these procedures, however, one drawback is that they involve estimation of both regression parameters and baseline cumulative hazard function. In this paper, we propose two simple estimation approaches that do not need estimation of the baseline cumulative hazard function. The asymptotic properties of the resulting estimates are given, and an extensive simulation study is conducted and indicates that they work well for practical situations.
INLA goes extreme: Bayesian tail regression for the estimation of high spatio-temporal quantiles
Opitz, Thomas; Huser, Raphaë l; Bakka, Haakon; Rue, Haavard
2018-01-01
approach is based on a Bayesian generalized additive modeling framework that is designed to estimate complex trends in marginal extremes over space and time. First, we estimate a high non-stationary threshold using a gamma distribution for precipitation
Salmerón, Diego; Cano, Juan A; Chirlaque, María D
2015-08-30
In cohort studies, binary outcomes are very often analyzed by logistic regression. However, it is well known that when the goal is to estimate a risk ratio, the logistic regression is inappropriate if the outcome is common. In these cases, a log-binomial regression model is preferable. On the other hand, the estimation of the regression coefficients of the log-binomial model is difficult owing to the constraints that must be imposed on these coefficients. Bayesian methods allow a straightforward approach for log-binomial regression models and produce smaller mean squared errors in the estimation of risk ratios than the frequentist methods, and the posterior inferences can be obtained using the software WinBUGS. However, Markov chain Monte Carlo methods implemented in WinBUGS can lead to large Monte Carlo errors in the approximations to the posterior inferences because they produce correlated simulations, and the accuracy of the approximations are inversely related to this correlation. To reduce correlation and to improve accuracy, we propose a reparameterization based on a Poisson model and a sampling algorithm coded in R. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Khalil, Mohamed H; Shebl, Mostafa K; Kosba, Mohamed A; El-Sabrout, Karim; Zaki, Nesma
2016-08-01
This research was conducted to determine the most affecting parameters on hatchability of indigenous and improved local chickens' eggs. Five parameters were studied (fertility, early and late embryonic mortalities, shape index, egg weight, and egg weight loss) on four strains, namely Fayoumi, Alexandria, Matrouh, and Montazah. Multiple linear regression was performed on the studied parameters to determine the most influencing one on hatchability. The results showed significant differences in commercial and scientific hatchability among strains. Alexandria strain has the highest significant commercial hatchability (80.70%). Regarding the studied strains, highly significant differences in hatching chick weight among strains were observed. Using multiple linear regression analysis, fertility made the greatest percent contribution (71.31%) to hatchability, and the lowest percent contributions were made by shape index and egg weight loss. A prediction of hatchability using multiple regression analysis could be a good tool to improve hatchability percentage in chickens.
Berry, D.P.; Buckley, F.; Dillon, P.; Evans, R.D.; Rath, M.; Veerkamp, R.F.
2003-01-01
Genetic (co)variances between body condition score (BCS), body weight (BW), milk yield, and fertility were estimated using a random regression animal model extended to multivariate analysis. The data analyzed included 81,313 BCS observations, 91,937 BW observations, and 100,458 milk test-day yields
CSIR Research Space (South Africa)
Bencherif, H
2010-09-01
Full Text Available The present reports on the use of a multi-regression model adapted at Reunion University for temperature and ozone trend estimates. Depending on the location of the observing site, the studied geophysical signal is broken down in form of a sum...
Chai, Rui; Xu, Li-Sheng; Yao, Yang; Hao, Li-Ling; Qi, Lin
2017-01-01
This study analyzed ascending branch slope (A_slope), dicrotic notch height (Hn), diastolic area (Ad) and systolic area (As) diastolic blood pressure (DBP), systolic blood pressure (SBP), pulse pressure (PP), subendocardial viability ratio (SEVR), waveform parameter (k), stroke volume (SV), cardiac output (CO), and peripheral resistance (RS) of central pulse wave invasively and non-invasively measured. Invasively measured parameters were compared with parameters measured from brachial pulse waves by regression model and transfer function model. Accuracy of parameters estimated by regression and transfer function model, was compared too. Findings showed that k value, central pulse wave and brachial pulse wave parameters invasively measured, correlated positively. Regression model parameters including A_slope, DBP, SEVR, and transfer function model parameters had good consistency with parameters invasively measured. They had same effect of consistency. SBP, PP, SV, and CO could be calculated through the regression model, but their accuracies were worse than that of transfer function model.
Combination of supervised and semi-supervised regression models for improved unbiased estimation
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Arenas-Garía, Jeronimo; Moriana-Varo, Carlos; Larsen, Jan
2010-01-01
In this paper we investigate the steady-state performance of semisupervised regression models adjusted using a modified RLS-like algorithm, identifying the situations where the new algorithm is expected to outperform standard RLS. By using an adaptive combination of the supervised and semisupervi......In this paper we investigate the steady-state performance of semisupervised regression models adjusted using a modified RLS-like algorithm, identifying the situations where the new algorithm is expected to outperform standard RLS. By using an adaptive combination of the supervised...
Bianca N.I. Eskelson; Hailemariam Temesgen; Tara M. Barrett
2009-01-01
Cavity tree and snag abundance data are highly variable and contain many zero observations. We predict cavity tree and snag abundance from variables that are readily available from forest cover maps or remotely sensed data using negative binomial (NB), zero-inflated NB, and zero-altered NB (ZANB) regression models as well as nearest neighbor (NN) imputation methods....
Yan, Jun; Aseltine, Robert H., Jr.; Harel, Ofer
2013-01-01
Comparing regression coefficients between models when one model is nested within another is of great practical interest when two explanations of a given phenomenon are specified as linear models. The statistical problem is whether the coefficients associated with a given set of covariates change significantly when other covariates are added into…
Propensity Score Estimation with Data Mining Techniques: Alternatives to Logistic Regression
Keller, Bryan S. B.; Kim, Jee-Seon; Steiner, Peter M.
2013-01-01
Propensity score analysis (PSA) is a methodological technique which may correct for selection bias in a quasi-experiment by modeling the selection process using observed covariates. Because logistic regression is well understood by researchers in a variety of fields and easy to implement in a number of popular software packages, it has…
Maximum likelihood estimation for Cox's regression model under nested case-control sampling
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Scheike, Thomas; Juul, Anders
2004-01-01
Nested case-control sampling is designed to reduce the costs of large cohort studies. It is important to estimate the parameters of interest as efficiently as possible. We present a new maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for nested case-control sampling in the context of Cox's proportional hazard...
Luque-Fernandez, Miguel Angel; Belot, Aurélien; Quaresma, Manuela; Maringe, Camille; Coleman, Michel P; Rachet, Bernard
2016-10-01
In population-based cancer research, piecewise exponential regression models are used to derive adjusted estimates of excess mortality due to cancer using the Poisson generalized linear modelling framework. However, the assumption that the conditional mean and variance of the rate parameter given the set of covariates x i are equal is strong and may fail to account for overdispersion given the variability of the rate parameter (the variance exceeds the mean). Using an empirical example, we aimed to describe simple methods to test and correct for overdispersion. We used a regression-based score test for overdispersion under the relative survival framework and proposed different approaches to correct for overdispersion including a quasi-likelihood, robust standard errors estimation, negative binomial regression and flexible piecewise modelling. All piecewise exponential regression models showed the presence of significant inherent overdispersion (p-value regression modelling, with either a quasi-likelihood or robust standard errors, was the best approach as it deals with both, overdispersion due to model misspecification and true or inherent overdispersion.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Elliott Campbell, J.; Moen, Jeremie C.; Ney, Richard A.; Schnoor, Jerald L.
2008-01-01
Estimates of forest soil organic carbon (SOC) have applications in carbon science, soil quality studies, carbon sequestration technologies, and carbon trading. Forest SOC has been modeled using a regression coefficient methodology that applies mean SOC densities (mass/area) to broad forest regions. A higher resolution model is based on an approach that employs a geographic information system (GIS) with soil databases and satellite-derived landcover images. Despite this advancement, the regression approach remains the basis of current state and federal level greenhouse gas inventories. Both approaches are analyzed in detail for Wisconsin forest soils from 1983 to 2001, applying rigorous error-fixing algorithms to soil databases. Resulting SOC stock estimates are 20% larger when determined using the GIS method rather than the regression approach. Average annual rates of increase in SOC stocks are 3.6 and 1.0 million metric tons of carbon per year for the GIS and regression approaches respectively. - Large differences in estimates of soil organic carbon stocks and annual changes in stocks for Wisconsin forestlands indicate a need for validation from forthcoming forest surveys
Karabatsos, George
2017-02-01
Most of applied statistics involves regression analysis of data. In practice, it is important to specify a regression model that has minimal assumptions which are not violated by data, to ensure that statistical inferences from the model are informative and not misleading. This paper presents a stand-alone and menu-driven software package, Bayesian Regression: Nonparametric and Parametric Models, constructed from MATLAB Compiler. Currently, this package gives the user a choice from 83 Bayesian models for data analysis. They include 47 Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) infinite-mixture regression models; 5 BNP infinite-mixture models for density estimation; and 31 normal random effects models (HLMs), including normal linear models. Each of the 78 regression models handles either a continuous, binary, or ordinal dependent variable, and can handle multi-level (grouped) data. All 83 Bayesian models can handle the analysis of weighted observations (e.g., for meta-analysis), and the analysis of left-censored, right-censored, and/or interval-censored data. Each BNP infinite-mixture model has a mixture distribution assigned one of various BNP prior distributions, including priors defined by either the Dirichlet process, Pitman-Yor process (including the normalized stable process), beta (two-parameter) process, normalized inverse-Gaussian process, geometric weights prior, dependent Dirichlet process, or the dependent infinite-probits prior. The software user can mouse-click to select a Bayesian model and perform data analysis via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling. After the sampling completes, the software automatically opens text output that reports MCMC-based estimates of the model's posterior distribution and model predictive fit to the data. Additional text and/or graphical output can be generated by mouse-clicking other menu options. This includes output of MCMC convergence analyses, and estimates of the model's posterior predictive distribution, for selected
Sub-pixel estimation of tree cover and bare surface densities using regression tree analysis
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Carlos Augusto Zangrando Toneli
2011-09-01
Full Text Available Sub-pixel analysis is capable of generating continuous fields, which represent the spatial variability of certain thematic classes. The aim of this work was to develop numerical models to represent the variability of tree cover and bare surfaces within the study area. This research was conducted in the riparian buffer within a watershed of the São Francisco River in the North of Minas Gerais, Brazil. IKONOS and Landsat TM imagery were used with the GUIDE algorithm to construct the models. The results were two index images derived with regression trees for the entire study area, one representing tree cover and the other representing bare surface. The use of non-parametric and non-linear regression tree models presented satisfactory results to characterize wetland, deciduous and savanna patterns of forest formation.
Detrended fluctuation analysis as a regression framework: Estimating dependence at different scales
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Krištoufek, Ladislav
2015-01-01
Roč. 91, č. 1 (2015), 022802-1-022802-5 ISSN 1539-3755 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GP14-11402P Grant - others:GA ČR(CZ) GAP402/11/0948 Program:GA Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Detrended cross-correlation analysis * Regression * Scales Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 2.288, year: 2014 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2015/E/kristoufek-0452315.pdf
Estimating transmitted waves of floating breakwater using support vector regression model
Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)
Mandal, S.; Hegde, A.V.; Kumar, V.; Patil, S.G.
is first mapped onto an m-dimensional feature space using some fixed (nonlinear) mapping, and then a linear model is constructed in this feature space (Ivanciuc Ovidiu 2007). Using mathematical notation, the linear model in the feature space f(x, w... regressive vector machines, Ocean Engineering Journal, Vol – 36, pp 339 – 347, 2009. 3. Ivanciuc Ovidiu, Applications of support vector machines in chemistry, Review in Computational Chemistry, Eds K. B. Lipkouitz and T. R. Cundari, Vol – 23...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
T. Nataraja Moorthy
2015-05-01
Full Text Available The human foot has been studied for a variety of reasons, i.e., for forensic as well as non-forensic purposes by anatomists, forensic scientists, anthropologists, physicians, podiatrists, and numerous other groups. An aspect of human identification that has received scant attention from forensic anthropologists is the study of human feet and the footprints made by the feet. The present study, conducted during 2013-2014, aimed to derive population specific regression equations to estimate stature from the footprint anthropometry of indigenous adult Bidayuhs in the east of Malaysia. The study sample consisted of 480 bilateral footprints collected using a footprint kit from 240 Bidayuhs (120 males and 120 females, who consented to taking part in the study. Their ages ranged from 18 to 70 years. Stature was measured using a portable body meter device (SECA model 206. The data were analyzed using PASW Statistics version 20. In this investigation, better results were obtained in terms of correlation coefficient (R between stature and various footprint measurements and regression analysis in estimating the stature. The (R values showed a positive and statistically significant (p < 0.001 relationship between the two parameters. The correlation coefficients in the pooled sample (0.861–0.882 were comparatively higher than those of an individual male (0.762-0.795 and female (0.722-0.765. This study provided regression equations to estimate stature from footprints in the Bidayuh population. The result showed that the regression equations without sex indicators performed significantly better than models with gender indications. The regression equations derived for a pooled sample can be used to estimate stature, even when the sex of the footprint is unknown, as in real crime scenes.
Borodachev, S. M.
2016-06-01
The simple derivation of recursive least squares (RLS) method equations is given as special case of Kalman filter estimation of a constant system state under changing observation conditions. A numerical example illustrates application of RLS to multicollinearity problem.
Ono, Tomohiro; Nakamura, Mitsuhiro; Hirose, Yoshinori; Kitsuda, Kenji; Ono, Yuka; Ishigaki, Takashi; Hiraoka, Masahiro
2017-09-01
To estimate the lung tumor position from multiple anatomical features on four-dimensional computed tomography (4D-CT) data sets using single regression analysis (SRA) and multiple regression analysis (MRA) approach and evaluate an impact of the approach on internal target volume (ITV) for stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT) of the lung. Eleven consecutive lung cancer patients (12 cases) underwent 4D-CT scanning. The three-dimensional (3D) lung tumor motion exceeded 5 mm. The 3D tumor position and anatomical features, including lung volume, diaphragm, abdominal wall, and chest wall positions, were measured on 4D-CT images. The tumor position was estimated by SRA using each anatomical feature and MRA using all anatomical features. The difference between the actual and estimated tumor positions was defined as the root-mean-square error (RMSE). A standard partial regression coefficient for the MRA was evaluated. The 3D lung tumor position showed a high correlation with the lung volume (R = 0.92 ± 0.10). Additionally, ITVs derived from SRA and MRA approaches were compared with ITV derived from contouring gross tumor volumes on all 10 phases of the 4D-CT (conventional ITV). The RMSE of the SRA was within 3.7 mm in all directions. Also, the RMSE of the MRA was within 1.6 mm in all directions. The standard partial regression coefficient for the lung volume was the largest and had the most influence on the estimated tumor position. Compared with conventional ITV, average percentage decrease of ITV were 31.9% and 38.3% using SRA and MRA approaches, respectively. The estimation accuracy of lung tumor position was improved by the MRA approach, which provided smaller ITV than conventional ITV. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Applied Clinical Medical Physics published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of American Association of Physicists in Medicine.
Liu, Xun; Li, Ning-shan; Lv, Lin-sheng; Huang, Jian-hua; Tang, Hua; Chen, Jin-xia; Ma, Hui-juan; Wu, Xiao-ming; Lou, Tan-qi
2013-12-01
Accurate estimation of glomerular filtration rate (GFR) is important in clinical practice. Current models derived from regression are limited by the imprecision of GFR estimates. We hypothesized that an artificial neural network (ANN) might improve the precision of GFR estimates. A study of diagnostic test accuracy. 1,230 patients with chronic kidney disease were enrolled, including the development cohort (n=581), internal validation cohort (n=278), and external validation cohort (n=371). Estimated GFR (eGFR) using a new ANN model and a new regression model using age, sex, and standardized serum creatinine level derived in the development and internal validation cohort, and the CKD-EPI (Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration) 2009 creatinine equation. Measured GFR (mGFR). GFR was measured using a diethylenetriaminepentaacetic acid renal dynamic imaging method. Serum creatinine was measured with an enzymatic method traceable to isotope-dilution mass spectrometry. In the external validation cohort, mean mGFR was 49±27 (SD) mL/min/1.73 m2 and biases (median difference between mGFR and eGFR) for the CKD-EPI, new regression, and new ANN models were 0.4, 1.5, and -0.5 mL/min/1.73 m2, respectively (P30% from mGFR) were 50.9%, 77.4%, and 78.7%, respectively (Psource of systematic bias in comparisons of new models to CKD-EPI, and both the derivation and validation cohorts consisted of a group of patients who were referred to the same institution. An ANN model using 3 variables did not perform better than a new regression model. Whether ANN can improve GFR estimation using more variables requires further investigation. Copyright © 2013 National Kidney Foundation, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Estimating the causes of traffic accidents using logistic regression and discriminant analysis.
Karacasu, Murat; Ergül, Barış; Altin Yavuz, Arzu
2014-01-01
Factors that affect traffic accidents have been analysed in various ways. In this study, we use the methods of logistic regression and discriminant analysis to determine the damages due to injury and non-injury accidents in the Eskisehir Province. Data were obtained from the accident reports of the General Directorate of Security in Eskisehir; 2552 traffic accidents between January and December 2009 were investigated regarding whether they resulted in injury. According to the results, the effects of traffic accidents were reflected in the variables. These results provide a wealth of information that may aid future measures toward the prevention of undesired results.
A constrained polynomial regression procedure for estimating the local False Discovery Rate
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Broët Philippe
2007-06-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background In the context of genomic association studies, for which a large number of statistical tests are performed simultaneously, the local False Discovery Rate (lFDR, which quantifies the evidence of a specific gene association with a clinical or biological variable of interest, is a relevant criterion for taking into account the multiple testing problem. The lFDR not only allows an inference to be made for each gene through its specific value, but also an estimate of Benjamini-Hochberg's False Discovery Rate (FDR for subsets of genes. Results In the framework of estimating procedures without any distributional assumption under the alternative hypothesis, a new and efficient procedure for estimating the lFDR is described. The results of a simulation study indicated good performances for the proposed estimator in comparison to four published ones. The five different procedures were applied to real datasets. Conclusion A novel and efficient procedure for estimating lFDR was developed and evaluated.
Maximum likelihood estimation for Cox's regression model under nested case-control sampling
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Scheike, Thomas Harder; Juul, Anders
2004-01-01
-like growth factor I was associated with ischemic heart disease. The study was based on a population of 3784 Danes and 231 cases of ischemic heart disease where controls were matched on age and gender. We illustrate the use of the MLE for these data and show how the maximum likelihood framework can be used......Nested case-control sampling is designed to reduce the costs of large cohort studies. It is important to estimate the parameters of interest as efficiently as possible. We present a new maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for nested case-control sampling in the context of Cox's proportional hazards...... model. The MLE is computed by the EM-algorithm, which is easy to implement in the proportional hazards setting. Standard errors are estimated by a numerical profile likelihood approach based on EM aided differentiation. The work was motivated by a nested case-control study that hypothesized that insulin...
Visser, H.; Molenaar, J.
1995-05-01
The detection of trends in climatological data has become central to the discussion on climate change due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. To prove detection, a method is needed (i) to make inferences on significant rises or declines in trends, (ii) to take into account natural variability in climate series, and (iii) to compare output from GCMs with the trends in observed climate data. To meet these requirements, flexible mathematical tools are needed. A structural time series model is proposed with which a stochastic trend, a deterministic trend, and regression coefficients can be estimated simultaneously. The stochastic trend component is described using the class of ARIMA models. The regression component is assumed to be linear. However, the regression coefficients corresponding with the explanatory variables may be time dependent to validate this assumption. The mathematical technique used to estimate this trend-regression model is the Kaiman filter. The main features of the filter are discussed.Examples of trend estimation are given using annual mean temperatures at a single station in the Netherlands (1706-1990) and annual mean temperatures at Northern Hemisphere land stations (1851-1990). The inclusion of explanatory variables is shown by regressing the latter temperature series on four variables: Southern Oscillation index (SOI), volcanic dust index (VDI), sunspot numbers (SSN), and a simulated temperature signal, induced by increasing greenhouse gases (GHG). In all analyses, the influence of SSN on global temperatures is found to be negligible. The correlations between temperatures and SOI and VDI appear to be negative. For SOI, this correlation is significant, but for VDI it is not, probably because of a lack of volcanic eruptions during the sample period. The relation between temperatures and GHG is positive, which is in agreement with the hypothesis of a warming climate because of increasing levels of greenhouse gases. The prediction performance of
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Tvedebrink, Torben; Eriksen, Poul Svante; Asplund, Maria
2012-01-01
We discuss the model for estimating drop-out probabilities presented by Tvedebrink et al. [7] and the concerns, that have been raised. The criticism of the model has demonstrated that the model is not perfect. However, the model is very useful for advanced forensic genetic work, where allelic drop-out...... is occurring. With this discussion, we hope to improve the drop-out model, so that it can be used for practical forensic genetics and stimulate further discussions. We discuss how to estimate drop-out probabilities when using a varying number of PCR cycles and other experimental conditions....
Linear regressive model structures for estimation and prediction of compartmental diffusive systems
Vries, D; Keesman, K.J.; Zwart, Heiko J.
In input-output relations of (compartmental) diffusive systems, physical parameters appear non-linearly, resulting in the use of (constrained) non-linear parameter estimation techniques with its short-comings regarding global optimality and computational effort. Given a LTI system in state space
Linear regressive model structures for estimation and prediction of compartmental diffusive systems
Vries, D.; Keesman, K.J.; Zwart, H.
2006-01-01
Abstract In input-output relations of (compartmental) diffusive systems, physical parameters appear non-linearly, resulting in the use of (constrained) non-linear parameter estimation techniques with its short-comings regarding global optimality and computational effort. Given a LTI system in state
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Koo, Young Do; Yoo, Kwae Hwan; Na, Man Gyun [Dept. of Nuclear Engineering, Chosun University, Gwangju (Korea, Republic of)
2017-06-15
Residual stress is a critical element in determining the integrity of parts and the lifetime of welded structures. It is necessary to estimate the residual stress of a welding zone because residual stress is a major reason for the generation of primary water stress corrosion cracking in nuclear power plants. That is, it is necessary to estimate the distribution of the residual stress in welding of dissimilar metals under manifold welding conditions. In this study, a cascaded support vector regression (CSVR) model was presented to estimate the residual stress of a welding zone. The CSVR model was serially and consecutively structured in terms of SVR modules. Using numerical data obtained from finite element analysis by a subtractive clustering method, learning data that explained the characteristic behavior of the residual stress of a welding zone were selected to optimize the proposed model. The results suggest that the CSVR model yielded a better estimation performance when compared with a classic SVR model.
Cade, Brian S.; Noon, Barry R.; Scherer, Rick D.; Keane, John J.
2017-01-01
Counts of avian fledglings, nestlings, or clutch size that are bounded below by zero and above by some small integer form a discrete random variable distribution that is not approximated well by conventional parametric count distributions such as the Poisson or negative binomial. We developed a logistic quantile regression model to provide estimates of the empirical conditional distribution of a bounded discrete random variable. The logistic quantile regression model requires that counts are randomly jittered to a continuous random variable, logit transformed to bound them between specified lower and upper values, then estimated in conventional linear quantile regression, repeating the 3 steps and averaging estimates. Back-transformation to the original discrete scale relies on the fact that quantiles are equivariant to monotonic transformations. We demonstrate this statistical procedure by modeling 20 years of California Spotted Owl fledgling production (0−3 per territory) on the Lassen National Forest, California, USA, as related to climate, demographic, and landscape habitat characteristics at territories. Spotted Owl fledgling counts increased nonlinearly with decreasing precipitation in the early nesting period, in the winter prior to nesting, and in the prior growing season; with increasing minimum temperatures in the early nesting period; with adult compared to subadult parents; when there was no fledgling production in the prior year; and when percentage of the landscape surrounding nesting sites (202 ha) with trees ≥25 m height increased. Changes in production were primarily driven by changes in the proportion of territories with 2 or 3 fledglings. Average variances of the discrete cumulative distributions of the estimated fledgling counts indicated that temporal changes in climate and parent age class explained 18% of the annual variance in owl fledgling production, which was 34% of the total variance. Prior fledgling production explained as much of
Lo, Ching F.
1999-01-01
The integration of Radial Basis Function Networks and Back Propagation Neural Networks with the Multiple Linear Regression has been accomplished to map nonlinear response surfaces over a wide range of independent variables in the process of the Modem Design of Experiments. The integrated method is capable to estimate the precision intervals including confidence and predicted intervals. The power of the innovative method has been demonstrated by applying to a set of wind tunnel test data in construction of response surface and estimation of precision interval.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Carausu, A.
1996-01-01
A method for the fragility estimation of seismically isolated nuclear power plant structure is proposed. The relationship between the ground motion intensity parameter (e.g. peak ground velocity or peak ground acceleration) and the response of isolated structures is expressed in terms of a bi-linear regression line, whose coefficients are estimated by the least-square method in terms of available data on seismic input and structural response. The notion of high confidence low probability of failure (HCLPF) value is also used for deriving compound fragility curves for coupled subsystems. (orig.)
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Jabr, R.A. [Electrical, Computer and Communication Engineering Department, Notre Dame University, P.O. Box 72, Zouk Mikhael, Zouk Mosbeh (Lebanon)
2006-02-15
This paper presents an implementation of the least absolute value (LAV) power system state estimator based on obtaining a sequence of solutions to the L{sub 1}-regression problem using an iteratively reweighted least squares (IRLS{sub L1}) method. The proposed implementation avoids reformulating the regression problem into standard linear programming (LP) form and consequently does not require the use of common methods of LP, such as those based on the simplex method or interior-point methods. It is shown that the IRLS{sub L1} method is equivalent to solving a sequence of linear weighted least squares (LS) problems. Thus, its implementation presents little additional effort since the sparse LS solver is common to existing LS state estimators. Studies on the termination criteria of the IRLS{sub L1} method have been carried out to determine a procedure for which the proposed estimator is more computationally efficient than a previously proposed non-linear iteratively reweighted least squares (IRLS) estimator. Indeed, it is revealed that the proposed method is a generalization of the previously reported IRLS estimator, but is based on more rigorous theory. (author)
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Antonella Costanzo
2017-09-01
Full Text Available Abstract The number of studies addressing issues of inequality in educational outcomes using cognitive achievement tests and variables from large-scale assessment data has increased. Here the value of using a quantile regression approach is compared with a classical regression analysis approach to study the relationships between educational outcomes and likely predictor variables. Italian primary school data from INVALSI large-scale assessments were analyzed using both quantile and standard regression approaches. Mathematics and reading scores were regressed on students' characteristics and geographical variables selected for their theoretical and policy relevance. The results demonstrated that, in Italy, the role of gender and immigrant status varied across the entire conditional distribution of students’ performance. Analogous results emerged pertaining to the difference in students’ performance across Italian geographic areas. These findings suggest that quantile regression analysis is a useful tool to explore the determinants and mechanisms of inequality in educational outcomes. A proper interpretation of quantile estimates may enable teachers to identify effective learning activities and help policymakers to develop tailored programs that increase equity in education.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Azadeh, A; Seraj, O [Department of Industrial Engineering and Research Institute of Energy Management and Planning, Center of Excellence for Intelligent-Based Experimental Mechanics, College of Engineering, University of Tehran, P.O. Box 11365-4563 (Iran); Saberi, M [Department of Industrial Engineering, University of Tafresh (Iran); Institute for Digital Ecosystems and Business Intelligence, Curtin University of Technology, Perth (Australia)
2010-06-15
This study presents an integrated fuzzy regression and time series framework to estimate and predict electricity demand for seasonal and monthly changes in electricity consumption especially in developing countries such as China and Iran with non-stationary data. Furthermore, it is difficult to model uncertain behavior of energy consumption with only conventional fuzzy regression (FR) or time series and the integrated algorithm could be an ideal substitute for such cases. At First, preferred Time series model is selected from linear or nonlinear models. For this, after selecting preferred Auto Regression Moving Average (ARMA) model, Mcleod-Li test is applied to determine nonlinearity condition. When, nonlinearity condition is satisfied, the preferred nonlinear model is selected and defined as preferred time series model. At last, the preferred model from fuzzy regression and time series model is selected by the Granger-Newbold. Also, the impact of data preprocessing on the fuzzy regression performance is considered. Monthly electricity consumption of Iran from March 1994 to January 2005 is considered as the case of this study. The superiority of the proposed algorithm is shown by comparing its results with other intelligent tools such as Genetic Algorithm (GA) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN). (author)
Chai Rui; Li Si-Man; Xu Li-Sheng; Yao Yang; Hao Li-Ling
2017-07-01
This study mainly analyzed the parameters such as ascending branch slope (A_slope), dicrotic notch height (Hn), diastolic area (Ad) and systolic area (As) diastolic blood pressure (DBP), systolic blood pressure (SBP), pulse pressure (PP), subendocardial viability ratio (SEVR), waveform parameter (k), stroke volume (SV), cardiac output (CO) and peripheral resistance (RS) of central pulse wave invasively and non-invasively measured. These parameters extracted from the central pulse wave invasively measured were compared with the parameters measured from the brachial pulse waves by a regression model and a transfer function model. The accuracy of the parameters which were estimated by the regression model and the transfer function model was compared too. Our findings showed that in addition to the k value, the above parameters of the central pulse wave and the brachial pulse wave invasively measured had positive correlation. Both the regression model parameters including A_slope, DBP, SEVR and the transfer function model parameters had good consistency with the parameters invasively measured, and they had the same effect of consistency. The regression equations of the three parameters were expressed by Y'=a+bx. The SBP, PP, SV, CO of central pulse wave could be calculated through the regression model, but their accuracies were worse than that of transfer function model.
Sanford, Ward E.; Selnick, David L.
2013-01-01
Evapotranspiration (ET) is an important quantity for water resource managers to know because it often represents the largest sink for precipitation (P) arriving at the land surface. In order to estimate actual ET across the conterminous United States (U.S.) in this study, a water-balance method was combined with a climate and land-cover regression equation. Precipitation and streamflow records were compiled for 838 watersheds for 1971-2000 across the U.S. to obtain long-term estimates of actual ET. A regression equation was developed that related the ratio ET/P to climate and land-cover variables within those watersheds. Precipitation and temperatures were used from the PRISM climate dataset, and land-cover data were used from the USGS National Land Cover Dataset. Results indicate that ET can be predicted relatively well at a watershed or county scale with readily available climate variables alone, and that land-cover data can also improve those predictions. Using the climate and land-cover data at an 800-m scale and then averaging to the county scale, maps were produced showing estimates of ET and ET/P for the entire conterminous U.S. Using the regression equation, such maps could also be made for more detailed state coverages, or for other areas of the world where climate and land-cover data are plentiful.
Espelt, Albert; Marí-Dell'Olmo, Marc; Penelo, Eva; Bosque-Prous, Marina
2016-06-14
To examine the differences between Prevalence Ratio (PR) and Odds Ratio (OR) in a cross-sectional study and to provide tools to calculate PR using two statistical packages widely used in substance use research (STATA and R). We used cross-sectional data from 41,263 participants of 16 European countries participating in the Survey on Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE). The dependent variable, hazardous drinking, was calculated using the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test - Consumption (AUDIT-C). The main independent variable was gender. Other variables used were: age, educational level and country of residence. PR of hazardous drinking in men with relation to women was estimated using Mantel-Haenszel method, log-binomial regression models and poisson regression models with robust variance. These estimations were compared to the OR calculated using logistic regression models. Prevalence of hazardous drinkers varied among countries. Generally, men have higher prevalence of hazardous drinking than women [PR=1.43 (1.38-1.47)]. Estimated PR was identical independently of the method and the statistical package used. However, OR overestimated PR, depending on the prevalence of hazardous drinking in the country. In cross-sectional studies, where comparisons between countries with differences in the prevalence of the disease or condition are made, it is advisable to use PR instead of OR.
Biomass estimates of freshwater zooplankton from length-carbon regression equations
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Patrizia COMOLI
2000-02-01
Full Text Available We present length/carbon regression equations of zooplankton species collected from Lake Maggiore (N. Italy during 1992. The results are discussed in terms of the environmental factors, e.g. food availability, predation, controlling biomass production of particle- feeders and predators in the pelagic system of lakes. The marked seasonality in the length-standardized carbon content of Daphnia, and its time-specific trend suggest that from spring onward food availability for Daphnia population may be regarded as a simple decay function. Seasonality does not affect the carbon content/unit length of the two predator Cladocera Leptodora kindtii and Bythotrephes longimanus. Predation is probably the most important regulating factor for the seasonal dynamics of their carbon biomass. The existence of a constant factor to convert the diameter of Conochilus colonies into carbon seems reasonable for an organism whose population comes on quickly and just as quickly disappears.
Estimating Unbiased Treatment Effects in Education Using a Regression Discontinuity Design
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
William C. Smith
2014-08-01
Full Text Available The ability of regression discontinuity (RD designs to provide an unbiased treatment effect while overcoming the ethical concerns plagued by Random Control Trials (RCTs make it a valuable and useful approach in education evaluation. RD is the only explicitly recognized quasi-experimental approach identified by the Institute of Education Statistics to meet the prerequisites of a causal relationship. Unfortunately, the statistical complexity of the RD design has limited its application in education research. This article provides a less technical introduction to RD for education researchers and practitioners. Using visual analysis to aide conceptual understanding, the article walks readers through the essential steps of a Sharp RD design using hypothetical, but realistic, district intervention data and provides additional resources for further exploration.
Aoyama, J.; Hissmann, Karen; Yoshinaga, T.; Sasai, S.; Uto, T.; Ueda, H.
1999-01-01
Five hormone-treated female Japanese silver eels Anguilla japonica were tagged with ultrasonic transmitters and released by submersible in the West Pacific at seamounts of the West Mariana Ridge, their supposed spawning grounds. Four eels were tracked for 60 to 423 min in the vicinity of the seamounts. They did not settle at the seamounts but swam at a mean speed of 0.37 m s-1 into open water above deep ground. Their mean swimming depth ranged from 81 to 172 m. Experiments suggest that pre-ma...
A case study to estimate costs using Neural Networks and regression based models
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Nadia Bhuiyan
2012-07-01
Full Text Available Bombardier Aerospace’s high performance aircrafts and services set the utmost standard for the Aerospace industry. A case study in collaboration with Bombardier Aerospace is conducted in order to estimate the target cost of a landing gear. More precisely, the study uses both parametric model and neural network models to estimate the cost of main landing gears, a major aircraft commodity. A comparative analysis between the parametric based model and those upon neural networks model will be considered in order to determine the most accurate method to predict the cost of a main landing gear. Several trials are presented for the design and use of the neural network model. The analysis for the case under study shows the flexibility in the design of the neural network model. Furthermore, the performance of the neural network model is deemed superior to the parametric models for this case study.
Dynamical System and Nonlinear Regression for Estimate Host-Parasitoid Relationship
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ileana Miranda Cabrera
2010-01-01
Full Text Available The complex relationships of a crop with the pest, its natural enemies, and the climate factors exist in all the ecosystems, but the mathematic models has studied only some components to know the relation cause-effect. The most studied system has been concerned with the relationship pest-natural enemies such as prey-predator or host-parasitoid. The present paper shows a dynamical system for studying the relationship host-parasitoid (Diaphorina citri, Tamarixia radiata and shows that a nonlinear model permits the estimation of the parasite nymphs using nymphs healthy as the known variable. The model showed the functional answer of the parasitoid, in which a point arrives that its density is not augmented although the number host increases, and it becomes necessary to intervene in the ecosystem. A simple algorithm is used to estimate the parasitoids level using the priori relationship between the host and the climate factors and then the nonlinear model.
Liou, Jyun-you; Smith, Elliot H.; Bateman, Lisa M.; McKhann, Guy M., II; Goodman, Robert R.; Greger, Bradley; Davis, Tyler S.; Kellis, Spencer S.; House, Paul A.; Schevon, Catherine A.
2017-08-01
Objective. Epileptiform discharges, an electrophysiological hallmark of seizures, can propagate across cortical tissue in a manner similar to traveling waves. Recent work has focused attention on the origination and propagation patterns of these discharges, yielding important clues to their source location and mechanism of travel. However, systematic studies of methods for measuring propagation are lacking. Approach. We analyzed epileptiform discharges in microelectrode array recordings of human seizures. The array records multiunit activity and local field potentials at 400 micron spatial resolution, from a small cortical site free of obstructions. We evaluated several computationally efficient statistical methods for calculating traveling wave velocity, benchmarking them to analyses of associated neuronal burst firing. Main results. Over 90% of discharges met statistical criteria for propagation across the sampled cortical territory. Detection rate, direction and speed estimates derived from a multiunit estimator were compared to four field potential-based estimators: negative peak, maximum descent, high gamma power, and cross-correlation. Interestingly, the methods that were computationally simplest and most efficient (negative peak and maximal descent) offer non-inferior results in predicting neuronal traveling wave velocities compared to the other two, more complex methods. Moreover, the negative peak and maximal descent methods proved to be more robust against reduced spatial sampling challenges. Using least absolute deviation in place of least squares error minimized the impact of outliers, and reduced the discrepancies between local field potential-based and multiunit estimators. Significance. Our findings suggest that ictal epileptiform discharges typically take the form of exceptionally strong, rapidly traveling waves, with propagation detectable across millimeter distances. The sequential activation of neurons in space can be inferred from clinically
van de Kassteele, Jan; Zwakhals, Laurens; Breugelmans, Oscar; Ameling, Caroline; van den Brink, Carolien
2017-07-01
Local policy makers increasingly need information on health-related indicators at smaller geographic levels like districts or neighbourhoods. Although more large data sources have become available, direct estimates of the prevalence of a health-related indicator cannot be produced for neighbourhoods for which only small samples or no samples are available. Small area estimation provides a solution, but unit-level models for binary-valued outcomes that can handle both non-linear effects of the predictors and spatially correlated random effects in a unified framework are rarely encountered. We used data on 26 binary-valued health-related indicators collected on 387,195 persons in the Netherlands. We associated the health-related indicators at the individual level with a set of 12 predictors obtained from national registry data. We formulated a structured additive regression model for small area estimation. The model captured potential non-linear relations between the predictors and the outcome through additive terms in a functional form using penalized splines and included a term that accounted for spatially correlated heterogeneity between neighbourhoods. The registry data were used to predict individual outcomes which in turn are aggregated into higher geographical levels, i.e. neighbourhoods. We validated our method by comparing the estimated prevalences with observed prevalences at the individual level and by comparing the estimated prevalences with direct estimates obtained by weighting methods at municipality level. We estimated the prevalence of the 26 health-related indicators for 415 municipalities, 2599 districts and 11,432 neighbourhoods in the Netherlands. We illustrate our method on overweight data and show that there are distinct geographic patterns in the overweight prevalence. Calibration plots show that the estimated prevalences agree very well with observed prevalences at the individual level. The estimated prevalences agree reasonably well with the
INLA goes extreme: Bayesian tail regression for the estimation of high spatio-temporal quantiles
Opitz, Thomas
2018-05-25
This work is motivated by the challenge organized for the 10th International Conference on Extreme-Value Analysis (EVA2017) to predict daily precipitation quantiles at the 99.8% level for each month at observed and unobserved locations. Our approach is based on a Bayesian generalized additive modeling framework that is designed to estimate complex trends in marginal extremes over space and time. First, we estimate a high non-stationary threshold using a gamma distribution for precipitation intensities that incorporates spatial and temporal random effects. Then, we use the Bernoulli and generalized Pareto (GP) distributions to model the rate and size of threshold exceedances, respectively, which we also assume to vary in space and time. The latent random effects are modeled additively using Gaussian process priors, which provide high flexibility and interpretability. We develop a penalized complexity (PC) prior specification for the tail index that shrinks the GP model towards the exponential distribution, thus preventing unrealistically heavy tails. Fast and accurate estimation of the posterior distributions is performed thanks to the integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA). We illustrate this methodology by modeling the daily precipitation data provided by the EVA2017 challenge, which consist of observations from 40 stations in the Netherlands recorded during the period 1972–2016. Capitalizing on INLA’s fast computational capacity and powerful distributed computing resources, we conduct an extensive cross-validation study to select the model parameters that govern the smoothness of trends. Our results clearly outperform simple benchmarks and are comparable to the best-scoring approaches of the other teams.
CSIR Research Space (South Africa)
Gregor, Luke
2017-12-01
Full Text Available understanding with spatially integrated air–sea flux estimates (Fay and McKinley, 2014). Conversely, ocean biogeochemical process models are good tools for mechanis- tic understanding, but fail to represent the seasonality of CO2 fluxes in the Southern Ocean... of including coordinate variables as proxies of 1pCO2 in the empirical methods. In the inter- comparison study by Rödenbeck et al. (2015) proxies typi- cally include, but are not limited to, sea surface temperature (SST), chlorophyll a (Chl a), mixed layer...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Marjan Čeh
2018-05-01
Full Text Available The goal of this study is to analyse the predictive performance of the random forest machine learning technique in comparison to commonly used hedonic models based on multiple regression for the prediction of apartment prices. A data set that includes 7407 records of apartment transactions referring to real estate sales from 2008–2013 in the city of Ljubljana, the capital of Slovenia, was used in order to test and compare the predictive performances of both models. Apparent challenges faced during modelling included (1 the non-linear nature of the prediction assignment task; (2 input data being based on transactions occurring over a period of great price changes in Ljubljana whereby a 28% decline was noted in six consecutive testing years; and (3 the complex urban form of the case study area. Available explanatory variables, organised as a Geographic Information Systems (GIS ready dataset, including the structural and age characteristics of the apartments as well as environmental and neighbourhood information were considered in the modelling procedure. All performance measures (R2 values, sales ratios, mean average percentage error (MAPE, coefficient of dispersion (COD revealed significantly better results for predictions obtained by the random forest method, which confirms the prospective of this machine learning technique on apartment price prediction.
Jones, Kelly W; Lewis, David J
2015-01-01
Deforestation and conversion of native habitats continues to be the leading driver of biodiversity and ecosystem service loss. A number of conservation policies and programs are implemented--from protected areas to payments for ecosystem services (PES)--to deter these losses. Currently, empirical evidence on whether these approaches stop or slow land cover change is lacking, but there is increasing interest in conducting rigorous, counterfactual impact evaluations, especially for many new conservation approaches, such as PES and REDD, which emphasize additionality. In addition, several new, globally available and free high-resolution remote sensing datasets have increased the ease of carrying out an impact evaluation on land cover change outcomes. While the number of conservation evaluations utilizing 'matching' to construct a valid control group is increasing, the majority of these studies use simple differences in means or linear cross-sectional regression to estimate the impact of the conservation program using this matched sample, with relatively few utilizing fixed effects panel methods--an alternative estimation method that relies on temporal variation in the data. In this paper we compare the advantages and limitations of (1) matching to construct the control group combined with differences in means and cross-sectional regression, which control for observable forms of bias in program evaluation, to (2) fixed effects panel methods, which control for observable and time-invariant unobservable forms of bias, with and without matching to create the control group. We then use these four approaches to estimate forest cover outcomes for two conservation programs: a PES program in Northeastern Ecuador and strict protected areas in European Russia. In the Russia case we find statistically significant differences across estimators--due to the presence of unobservable bias--that lead to differences in conclusions about effectiveness. The Ecuador case illustrates that
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Kelly W Jones
Full Text Available Deforestation and conversion of native habitats continues to be the leading driver of biodiversity and ecosystem service loss. A number of conservation policies and programs are implemented--from protected areas to payments for ecosystem services (PES--to deter these losses. Currently, empirical evidence on whether these approaches stop or slow land cover change is lacking, but there is increasing interest in conducting rigorous, counterfactual impact evaluations, especially for many new conservation approaches, such as PES and REDD, which emphasize additionality. In addition, several new, globally available and free high-resolution remote sensing datasets have increased the ease of carrying out an impact evaluation on land cover change outcomes. While the number of conservation evaluations utilizing 'matching' to construct a valid control group is increasing, the majority of these studies use simple differences in means or linear cross-sectional regression to estimate the impact of the conservation program using this matched sample, with relatively few utilizing fixed effects panel methods--an alternative estimation method that relies on temporal variation in the data. In this paper we compare the advantages and limitations of (1 matching to construct the control group combined with differences in means and cross-sectional regression, which control for observable forms of bias in program evaluation, to (2 fixed effects panel methods, which control for observable and time-invariant unobservable forms of bias, with and without matching to create the control group. We then use these four approaches to estimate forest cover outcomes for two conservation programs: a PES program in Northeastern Ecuador and strict protected areas in European Russia. In the Russia case we find statistically significant differences across estimators--due to the presence of unobservable bias--that lead to differences in conclusions about effectiveness. The Ecuador case
Nose, Takashi; Kobayashi, Takao
In this paper, we propose a technique for estimating the degree or intensity of emotional expressions and speaking styles appearing in speech. The key idea is based on a style control technique for speech synthesis using a multiple regression hidden semi-Markov model (MRHSMM), and the proposed technique can be viewed as the inverse of the style control. In the proposed technique, the acoustic features of spectrum, power, fundamental frequency, and duration are simultaneously modeled using the MRHSMM. We derive an algorithm for estimating explanatory variables of the MRHSMM, each of which represents the degree or intensity of emotional expressions and speaking styles appearing in acoustic features of speech, based on a maximum likelihood criterion. We show experimental results to demonstrate the ability of the proposed technique using two types of speech data, simulated emotional speech and spontaneous speech with different speaking styles. It is found that the estimated values have correlation with human perception.
The effect of PLS regression in PLS path model estimation when multicollinearity is present
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Nielsen, Rikke; Kristensen, Kai; Eskildsen, Jacob
PLS path modelling has previously been found to be robust to multicollinearity both between latent variables and between manifest variables of a common latent variable (see e.g. Cassel et al. (1999), Kristensen, Eskildsen (2005), Westlund et al. (2008)). However, most of the studies investigate...... models with relatively few variables and very simple dependence structures compared to the models that are often estimated in practical settings. A recent study by Nielsen et al. (2009) found that when model structure is more complex, PLS path modelling is not as robust to multicollinearity between...... latent variables as previously assumed. A difference in the standard error of path coefficients of as much as 83% was found between moderate and severe levels of multicollinearity. Large differences were found not only for large path coefficients, but also for small path coefficients and in some cases...
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Fauser, Patrik; Thomsen, Marianne; Pistocchi, Alberto
2010-01-01
chemicals available in the European Chemicals Bureau risk assessment reports (RARs). The method suggests a simple linear relationship between Henry's Law constant, octanol-water coefficient, use and production volumes, and emissions and PECs on a regional scale in the European Union. Emissions and PECs......This paper proposes a simple method for estimating emissions and predicted environmental concentrations (PECs) in water and air for organic chemicals that are used in household products and industrial processes. The method has been tested on existing data for 63 organic high-production volume...... are a result of a complex interaction between chemical properties, production and use patterns and geographical characteristics. A linear relationship cannot capture these complexities; however, it may be applied at a cost-efficient screening level for suggesting critical chemicals that are candidates...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Robinet, M.J.; Mosho, G.D.
1990-04-01
The objective of this project was to estimate the in-place volume of radium-contaminated soil in an area of Barrows Field Park, Glen Ridge, New Jersey. The information was necessary to determine whether or not there was sufficient soil with the proper radium concentration to test a new method of soil decontamination. The steps used by Argonne National Laboratory personnel to obtain the required data for estimating the volume of contaminated soil was to measure the contamination-depth profile at 118 locations in a 60 ft times 150 ft area in the park, plot the contours of depths to the specified concentration, and measure the area of the closed depth contours. 6 refs., 23 figs., 3 tabs
Yang, Duo; Zhang, Xu; Pan, Rui; Wang, Yujie; Chen, Zonghai
2018-04-01
The state-of-health (SOH) estimation is always a crucial issue for lithium-ion batteries. In order to provide an accurate and reliable SOH estimation, a novel Gaussian process regression (GPR) model based on charging curve is proposed in this paper. Different from other researches where SOH is commonly estimated by cycle life, in this work four specific parameters extracted from charging curves are used as inputs of the GPR model instead of cycle numbers. These parameters can reflect the battery aging phenomenon from different angles. The grey relational analysis method is applied to analyze the relational grade between selected features and SOH. On the other hand, some adjustments are made in the proposed GPR model. Covariance function design and the similarity measurement of input variables are modified so as to improve the SOH estimate accuracy and adapt to the case of multidimensional input. Several aging data from NASA data repository are used for demonstrating the estimation effect by the proposed method. Results show that the proposed method has high SOH estimation accuracy. Besides, a battery with dynamic discharging profile is used to verify the robustness and reliability of this method.
Jones, Kelly W.; Lewis, David J.
2015-01-01
Deforestation and conversion of native habitats continues to be the leading driver of biodiversity and ecosystem service loss. A number of conservation policies and programs are implemented—from protected areas to payments for ecosystem services (PES)—to deter these losses. Currently, empirical evidence on whether these approaches stop or slow land cover change is lacking, but there is increasing interest in conducting rigorous, counterfactual impact evaluations, especially for many new conservation approaches, such as PES and REDD, which emphasize additionality. In addition, several new, globally available and free high-resolution remote sensing datasets have increased the ease of carrying out an impact evaluation on land cover change outcomes. While the number of conservation evaluations utilizing ‘matching’ to construct a valid control group is increasing, the majority of these studies use simple differences in means or linear cross-sectional regression to estimate the impact of the conservation program using this matched sample, with relatively few utilizing fixed effects panel methods—an alternative estimation method that relies on temporal variation in the data. In this paper we compare the advantages and limitations of (1) matching to construct the control group combined with differences in means and cross-sectional regression, which control for observable forms of bias in program evaluation, to (2) fixed effects panel methods, which control for observable and time-invariant unobservable forms of bias, with and without matching to create the control group. We then use these four approaches to estimate forest cover outcomes for two conservation programs: a PES program in Northeastern Ecuador and strict protected areas in European Russia. In the Russia case we find statistically significant differences across estimators—due to the presence of unobservable bias—that lead to differences in conclusions about effectiveness. The Ecuador case
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Tosun Erdi
2017-01-01
Full Text Available This study was aimed at estimating the variation of several engine control parameters within the rotational speed-load map, using regression analysis and artificial neural network techniques. Duration of injection, specific fuel consumption, exhaust gas at turbine inlet, and within the catalytic converter brick were chosen as the output parameters for the models, while engine speed and brake mean effective pressure were selected as independent variables for prediction. Measurements were performed on a turbocharged direct injection spark ignition engine fueled with gasoline. A three-layer feed-forward structure and back-propagation algorithm was used for training the artificial neural network. It was concluded that this technique is capable of predicting engine parameters with better accuracy than linear and non-linear regression techniques.
Suresh, Arumuganainar; Choi, Hong Lim
2011-10-01
Swine waste land application has increased due to organic fertilization, but excess application in an arable system can cause environmental risk. Therefore, in situ characterizations of such resources are important prior to application. To explore this, 41 swine slurry samples were collected from Korea, and wide differences were observed in the physico-biochemical properties. However, significant (Phydrometer, EC meter, drying oven and pH meter were found useful to estimate Mn, Fe, Ca, K, Al, Na, N and 5-day biochemical oxygen demands (BOD₅) at improved R² values of 0.83, 0.82, 0.77, 0.75, 0.67, 0.47, 0.88 and 0.70, respectively. The results from this study suggest that multiple property regressions can facilitate the prediction of micronutrients and organic matter much better than a single property regression for livestock waste. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Multiattribute shopping models and ridge regression analysis
Timmermans, H.J.P.
1981-01-01
Policy decisions regarding retailing facilities essentially involve multiple attributes of shopping centres. If mathematical shopping models are to contribute to these decision processes, their structure should reflect the multiattribute character of retailing planning. Examination of existing
Almirall, Daniel; Griffin, Beth Ann; McCaffrey, Daniel F.; Ramchand, Rajeev; Yuen, Robert A.; Murphy, Susan A.
2014-01-01
This article considers the problem of examining time-varying causal effect moderation using observational, longitudinal data in which treatment, candidate moderators, and possible confounders are time varying. The structural nested mean model (SNMM) is used to specify the moderated time-varying causal effects of interest in a conditional mean model for a continuous response given time-varying treatments and moderators. We present an easy-to-use estimator of the SNMM that combines an existing regression-with-residuals (RR) approach with an inverse-probability-of-treatment weighting (IPTW) strategy. The RR approach has been shown to identify the moderated time-varying causal effects if the time-varying moderators are also the sole time-varying confounders. The proposed IPTW+RR approach provides estimators of the moderated time-varying causal effects in the SNMM in the presence of an additional, auxiliary set of known and measured time-varying confounders. We use a small simulation experiment to compare IPTW+RR versus the traditional regression approach and to compare small and large sample properties of asymptotic versus bootstrap estimators of the standard errors for the IPTW+RR approach. This article clarifies the distinction between time-varying moderators and time-varying confounders. We illustrate the methodology in a case study to assess if time-varying substance use moderates treatment effects on future substance use. PMID:23873437
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kim, J. Y.; Shin, C. H.; Kim, J. K.; Lee, J. K.; Park, Y. J.
2003-01-01
The variation transitions of the inventories for the liquid radwaste system and the radioactive gas have being released in containment, and their predictive values according to the operation histories of Yonggwang(YGN) 3 and 4 were analyzed by linear regression analysis methodology. The results show that the variation transitions of the inventories for those systems are linearly increasing according to the operation histories but the inventories released to the environment are considerably lower than the recommended values based on the FSAR suggestions. It is considered that some conservation were presented in the estimation methodology in preparing stage of FSAR
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mohd Faris Dziauddin
2017-07-01
Full Text Available This study estimates the effect of locational attributes on residential property values in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Geographically weighted regression (GWR enables the use of the local parameter rather than the global parameter to be estimated, with the results presented in map form. The results of this study reveal that residential property values are mainly determined by the property’s physical (structural attributes, but proximity to locational attributes also contributes marginally. The use of GWR in this study is considered a better approach than other methods to examine the effect of locational attributes on residential property values. GWR has the capability to produce meaningful results in which different locational attributes have differential spatial effects across a geographical area on residential property values. This method has the ability to determine the factors on which premiums depend, and in turn it can assist the government in taxation matters.
Motlagh, Mohadeseh Ghanbari; Kafaky, Sasan Babaie; Mataji, Asadollah; Akhavan, Reza
2018-05-21
Hyrcanian forests of North of Iran are of great importance in terms of various economic and environmental aspects. In this study, Spot-6 satellite images and regression models were applied to estimate above-ground biomass in these forests. This research was carried out in six compartments in three climatic (semi-arid to humid) types and two altitude classes. In the first step, ground sampling methods at the compartment level were used to estimate aboveground biomass (Mg/ha). Then, by reviewing the results of other studies, the most appropriate vegetation indices were selected. In this study, three indices of NDVI, RVI, and TVI were calculated. We investigated the relationship between the vegetation indices and aboveground biomass measured at sample-plot level. Based on the results, the relationship between aboveground biomass values and vegetation indices was a linear regression with the highest level of significance for NDVI in all compartments. Since at the compartment level the correlation coefficient between NDVI and aboveground biomass was the highest, NDVI was used for mapping aboveground biomass. According to the results of this study, biomass values were highly different in various climatic and altitudinal classes with the highest biomass value observed in humid climate and high-altitude class.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Maria Gabriela Campolina Diniz Peixoto
2014-05-01
Full Text Available The objective of this work was to compare random regression models for the estimation of genetic parameters for Guzerat milk production, using orthogonal Legendre polynomials. Records (20,524 of test-day milk yield (TDMY from 2,816 first-lactation Guzerat cows were used. TDMY grouped into 10-monthly classes were analyzed for additive genetic effect and for environmental and residual permanent effects (random effects, whereas the contemporary group, calving age (linear and quadratic effects and mean lactation curve were analized as fixed effects. Trajectories for the additive genetic and permanent environmental effects were modeled by means of a covariance function employing orthogonal Legendre polynomials ranging from the second to the fifth order. Residual variances were considered in one, four, six, or ten variance classes. The best model had six residual variance classes. The heritability estimates for the TDMY records varied from 0.19 to 0.32. The random regression model that used a second-order Legendre polynomial for the additive genetic effect, and a fifth-order polynomial for the permanent environmental effect is adequate for comparison by the main employed criteria. The model with a second-order Legendre polynomial for the additive genetic effect, and that with a fourth-order for the permanent environmental effect could also be employed in these analyses.
Chirombo, James; Lowe, Rachel; Kazembe, Lawrence
2014-01-01
Background After years of implementing Roll Back Malaria (RBM) interventions, the changing landscape of malaria in terms of risk factors and spatial pattern has not been fully investigated. This paper uses the 2010 malaria indicator survey data to investigate if known malaria risk factors remain relevant after many years of interventions. Methods We adopted a structured additive logistic regression model that allowed for spatial correlation, to more realistically estimate malaria risk factors. Our model included child and household level covariates, as well as climatic and environmental factors. Continuous variables were modelled by assuming second order random walk priors, while spatial correlation was specified as a Markov random field prior, with fixed effects assigned diffuse priors. Inference was fully Bayesian resulting in an under five malaria risk map for Malawi. Results Malaria risk increased with increasing age of the child. With respect to socio-economic factors, the greater the household wealth, the lower the malaria prevalence. A general decline in malaria risk was observed as altitude increased. Minimum temperatures and average total rainfall in the three months preceding the survey did not show a strong association with disease risk. Conclusions The structured additive regression model offered a flexible extension to standard regression models by enabling simultaneous modelling of possible nonlinear effects of continuous covariates, spatial correlation and heterogeneity, while estimating usual fixed effects of categorical and continuous observed variables. Our results confirmed that malaria epidemiology is a complex interaction of biotic and abiotic factors, both at the individual, household and community level and that risk factors are still relevant many years after extensive implementation of RBM activities. PMID:24991915
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Y. Plancherel
2013-07-01
Full Text Available Quantifying oceanic anthropogenic carbon uptake by monitoring interior dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC concentrations is complicated by the influence of natural variability. The "eMLR method" aims to address this issue by using empirical regression fits of the data instead of the data themselves, inferring the change in anthropogenic carbon in time by difference between predictions generated by the regressions at each time. The advantages of the method are that it provides in principle a means to filter out natural variability, which theoretically becomes the regression residuals, and a way to deal with sparsely and unevenly distributed data. The degree to which these advantages are realized in practice is unclear, however. The ability of the eMLR method to recover the anthropogenic carbon signal is tested here using a global circulation and biogeochemistry model in which the true signal is known. Results show that regression model selection is particularly important when the observational network changes in time. When the observational network is fixed, the likelihood that co-located systematic misfits between the empirical model and the underlying, yet unknown, true model cancel is greater, improving eMLR results. Changing the observational network modifies how the spatio-temporal variance pattern is captured by the respective datasets, resulting in empirical models that are dynamically or regionally inconsistent, leading to systematic errors. In consequence, the use of regression formulae that change in time to represent systematically best-fit models at all times does not guarantee the best estimates of anthropogenic carbon change if the spatial distributions of the stations emphasize hydrographic features differently in time. Other factors, such as a balanced and representative station coverage, vertical continuity of the regression formulae consistent with the hydrographic context and resiliency of the spatial distribution of the residual
Zhang, L; Liu, X J
2016-06-03
With the rapid development of next-generation high-throughput sequencing technology, RNA-seq has become a standard and important technique for transcriptome analysis. For multi-sample RNA-seq data, the existing expression estimation methods usually deal with each single-RNA-seq sample, and ignore that the read distributions are consistent across multiple samples. In the current study, we propose a structured sparse regression method, SSRSeq, to estimate isoform expression using multi-sample RNA-seq data. SSRSeq uses a non-parameter model to capture the general tendency of non-uniformity read distribution for all genes across multiple samples. Additionally, our method adds a structured sparse regularization, which not only incorporates the sparse specificity between a gene and its corresponding isoform expression levels, but also reduces the effects of noisy reads, especially for lowly expressed genes and isoforms. Four real datasets were used to evaluate our method on isoform expression estimation. Compared with other popular methods, SSRSeq reduced the variance between multiple samples, and produced more accurate isoform expression estimations, and thus more meaningful biological interpretations.
Käyser, Sabine C; Dekkers, Tanja; Groenewoud, Hans J; van der Wilt, Gert Jan; Carel Bakx, J; van der Wel, Mark C; Hermus, Ad R; Lenders, Jacques W; Deinum, Jaap
2016-07-01
For health care planning and allocation of resources, realistic estimation of the prevalence of primary aldosteronism is necessary. Reported prevalences of primary aldosteronism are highly variable, possibly due to study heterogeneity. Our objective was to identify and explain heterogeneity in studies that aimed to establish the prevalence of primary aldosteronism in hypertensive patients. PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, and reference lists from January 1, 1990, to January 31, 2015, were used as data sources. Description of an adult hypertensive patient population with confirmed diagnosis of primary aldosteronism was included in this study. Dual extraction and quality assessment were the forms of data extraction. Thirty-nine studies provided data on 42 510 patients (nine studies, 5896 patients from primary care). Prevalence estimates varied from 3.2% to 12.7% in primary care and from 1% to 29.8% in referral centers. Heterogeneity was too high to establish point estimates (I(2) = 57.6% in primary care; 97.1% in referral centers). Meta-regression analysis showed higher prevalences in studies 1) published after 2000, 2) from Australia, 3) aimed at assessing prevalence of secondary hypertension, 4) that were retrospective, 5) that selected consecutive patients, and 6) not using a screening test. All studies had minor or major flaws. This study demonstrates that it is pointless to claim low or high prevalence of primary aldosteronism based on published reports. Because of the significant impact of a diagnosis of primary aldosteronism on health care resources and the necessary facilities, our findings urge for a prevalence study whose design takes into account the factors identified in the meta-regression analysis.
van der Zijden, A M; Groen, B E; Tanck, E; Nienhuis, B; Verdonschot, N; Weerdesteyn, V
2017-03-21
Many research groups have studied fall impact mechanics to understand how fall severity can be reduced to prevent hip fractures. Yet, direct impact force measurements with force plates are restricted to a very limited repertoire of experimental falls. The purpose of this study was to develop a generic model for estimating hip impact forces (i.e. fall severity) in in vivo sideways falls without the use of force plates. Twelve experienced judokas performed sideways Martial Arts (MA) and Block ('natural') falls on a force plate, both with and without a mat on top. Data were analyzed to determine the hip impact force and to derive 11 selected (subject-specific and kinematic) variables. Falls from kneeling height were used to perform a stepwise regression procedure to assess the effects of these input variables and build the model. The final model includes four input variables, involving one subject-specific measure and three kinematic variables: maximum upper body deceleration, body mass, shoulder angle at the instant of 'maximum impact' and maximum hip deceleration. The results showed that estimated and measured hip impact forces were linearly related (explained variances ranging from 46 to 63%). Hip impact forces of MA falls onto the mat from a standing position (3650±916N) estimated by the final model were comparable with measured values (3698±689N), even though these data were not used for training the model. In conclusion, a generic linear regression model was developed that enables the assessment of fall severity through kinematic measures of sideways falls, without using force plates. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
N. Zahir
2015-12-01
Full Text Available Lake Urmia is one of the most important ecosystems of the country which is on the verge of elimination. Many factors contribute to this crisis among them is the precipitation, paly important roll. Precipitation has many forms one of them is in the form of snow. The snow on Sahand Mountain is one of the main and important sources of the Lake Urmia’s water. Snow Depth (SD is vital parameters for estimating water balance for future year. In this regards, this study is focused on SD parameter using Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I instruments on board the Defence Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP F16. The usual statistical methods for retrieving SD include linear and non-linear ones. These methods used least square procedure to estimate SD model. Recently, kernel base methods widely used for modelling statistical problem. From these methods, the support vector regression (SVR is achieved the high performance for modelling the statistical problem. Examination of the obtained data shows the existence of outlier in them. For omitting these outliers, wavelet denoising method is applied. After the omission of the outliers it is needed to select the optimum bands and parameters for SVR. To overcome these issues, feature selection methods have shown a direct effect on improving the regression performance. We used genetic algorithm (GA for selecting suitable features of the SSMI bands in order to estimate SD model. The results for the training and testing data in Sahand mountain is [R²_TEST=0.9049 and RMSE= 6.9654] that show the high SVR performance.
Demirturk Kocasarac, Husniye; Sinanoglu, Alper; Noujeim, Marcel; Helvacioglu Yigit, Dilek; Baydemir, Canan
2016-05-01
For forensic age estimation, radiographic assessment of third molar mineralization is important between 14 and 21 years which coincides with the legal age in most countries. The spheno-occipital synchondrosis (SOS) is an important growth site during development, and its use for age estimation is beneficial when combined with other markers. In this study, we aimed to develop a regression model to estimate and narrow the age range based on the radiologic assessment of third molar and SOS in a Turkish subpopulation. Panoramic radiographs and cone beam CT scans of 349 subjects (182 males, 167 females) with age between 8 and 25 were evaluated. Four-stage system was used to evaluate the fusion degree of SOS, and Demirjian's eight stages of development for calcification for third molars. The Pearson correlation indicated a strong positive relationship between age and third molar calcification for both sexes (r = 0.850 for females, r = 0.839 for males, P < 0.001) and also between age and SOS fusion for females (r = 0.814), but a moderate relationship was found for males (r = 0.599), P < 0.001). Based on the results obtained, an age determination formula using these scores was established.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Edwards, L.L.; Freis, R.P.; Peters, L.G.; Gudiksen, P.H.; Pitovranov, S.E.
1993-01-01
The accuracy associated with assessing the environmental consequences of an accidental release of radioactivity is highly dependent on the knowledge of the source term characteristics, which are generally poorly known. The development of an automated numerical technique that integrates the radiological measurements with atmospheric dispersion modeling for more accurate source term estimation is reported. Often, this process of parameter estimation is performed by an emergency response assessor, who takes an intelligent first guess at the model parameters, then, comparing the model results with whatever measurements are available, makes an intuitive, informed next guess of the model parameters. This process may be repeated any number of times until the assessor feels that the model results are reasonable in terms of the measured observations. A new approach, based on a nonlinear least-squares regression scheme coupled with the existing Atmospheric Release Advisory Capability three-dimensional atmospheric dispersion models, is to supplement the assessor's intuition with automated mathematical methods that do not significantly increase the response time of the existing predictive models. The viability of the approach is evaluated by estimation of the known SF 6 tracer release rates associated with the Mesoscale Atmospheric Transport Studies tracer experiments conducted at the Savannah River Laboratory during 1983. These 19 experiments resulted in 14 successful, separate tracer releases with sampling of the tracer plumes along the cross-plume arc situated ∼30 km from the release site
Juan Collados-Lara, Antonio; Pardo-Iguzquiza, Eulogio; Pulido-Velazquez, David
2016-04-01
The estimation of Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) is essential for an appropriate assessment of the available water resources in Alpine catchment. The hydrologic regime in these areas is dominated by the storage of water in the snowpack, which is discharged to rivers throughout the melt season. An accurate estimation of the resources will be necessary for an appropriate analysis of the system operation alternatives using basin scale management models. In order to obtain an appropriate estimation of the SWE we need to know the spatial distribution snowpack and snow density within the Snow Cover Area (SCA). Data for these snow variables can be extracted from in-situ point measurements and air-borne/space-borne remote sensing observations. Different interpolation and simulation techniques have been employed for the estimation of the cited variables. In this paper we propose to estimate snowpack from a reduced number of ground-truth data (1 or 2 campaigns per year with 23 observation point from 2000-2014) and MODIS satellite-based observations in the Sierra Nevada Mountain (Southern Spain). Regression based methodologies has been used to study snowpack distribution using different kind of explicative variables: geographic, topographic, climatic. 40 explicative variables were considered: the longitude, latitude, altitude, slope, eastness, northness, radiation, maximum upwind slope and some mathematical transformation of each of them [Ln(v), (v)^-1; (v)^2; (v)^0.5). Eight different structure of regression models have been tested (combining 1, 2, 3 or 4 explicative variables). Y=B0+B1Xi (1); Y=B0+B1XiXj (2); Y=B0+B1Xi+B2Xj (3); Y=B0+B1Xi+B2XjXl (4); Y=B0+B1XiXk+B2XjXl (5); Y=B0+B1Xi+B2Xj+B3Xl (6); Y=B0+B1Xi+B2Xj+B3XlXk (7); Y=B0+B1Xi+B2Xj+B3Xl+B4Xk (8). Where: Y is the snow depth; (Xi, Xj, Xl, Xk) are the prediction variables (any of the 40 variables); (B0, B1, B2, B3) are the coefficients to be estimated. The ground data are employed to calibrate the multiple regressions. In
Berry, D P; Buckley, F; Dillon, P; Evans, R D; Rath, M; Veerkamp, R F
2003-11-01
Genetic (co)variances between body condition score (BCS), body weight (BW), milk yield, and fertility were estimated using a random regression animal model extended to multivariate analysis. The data analyzed included 81,313 BCS observations, 91,937 BW observations, and 100,458 milk test-day yields from 8725 multiparous Holstein-Friesian cows. A cubic random regression was sufficient to model the changing genetic variances for BCS, BW, and milk across different days in milk. The genetic correlations between BCS and fertility changed little over the lactation; genetic correlations between BCS and interval to first service and between BCS and pregnancy rate to first service varied from -0.47 to -0.31, and from 0.15 to 0.38, respectively. This suggests that maximum genetic gain in fertility from indirect selection on BCS should be based on measurements taken in midlactation when the genetic variance for BCS is largest. Selection for increased BW resulted in shorter intervals to first service, but more services and poorer pregnancy rates; genetic correlations between BW and pregnancy rate to first service varied from -0.52 to -0.45. Genetic selection for higher lactation milk yield alone through selection on increased milk yield in early lactation is likely to have a more deleterious effect on genetic merit for fertility than selection on higher milk yield in late lactation.
Guermoui, Mawloud; Gairaa, Kacem; Rabehi, Abdelaziz; Djafer, Djelloul; Benkaciali, Said
2018-06-01
Accurate estimation of solar radiation is the major concern in renewable energy applications. Over the past few years, a lot of machine learning paradigms have been proposed in order to improve the estimation performances, mostly based on artificial neural networks, fuzzy logic, support vector machine and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system. The aim of this work is the prediction of the daily global solar radiation, received on a horizontal surface through the Gaussian process regression (GPR) methodology. A case study of Ghardaïa region (Algeria) has been used in order to validate the above methodology. In fact, several combinations have been tested; it was found that, GPR-model based on sunshine duration, minimum air temperature and relative humidity gives the best results in term of mean absolute bias error (MBE), root mean square error (RMSE), relative mean square error (rRMSE), and correlation coefficient ( r) . The obtained values of these indicators are 0.67 MJ/m2, 1.15 MJ/m2, 5.2%, and 98.42%, respectively.
Chen, Ming-Jen; Hsu, Hui-Tsung; Lin, Cheng-Li; Ju, Wei-Yuan
2012-10-01
Human exposure to acrylamide (AA) through consumption of French fries and other foods has been recognized as a potential health concern. Here, we used a statistical non-linear regression model, based on the two most influential factors, cooking temperature and time, to estimate AA concentrations in French fries. The R(2) of the predictive model is 0.83, suggesting the developed model was significant and valid. Based on French fry intake survey data conducted in this study and eight frying temperature-time schemes which can produce tasty and visually appealing French fries, the Monte Carlo simulation results showed that if AA concentration is higher than 168 ppb, the estimated cancer risk for adolescents aged 13-18 years in Taichung City would be already higher than the target excess lifetime cancer risk (ELCR), and that by taking into account this limited life span only. In order to reduce the cancer risk associated with AA intake, the AA levels in French fries might have to be reduced even further if the epidemiological observations are valid. Our mathematical model can serve as basis for further investigations on ELCR including different life stages and behavior and population groups. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Lokuge Dona Manori Nimanthika Lokuge
2015-06-01
Full Text Available Due to high prevalence of dietary diseases and malnutrition in Sri Lanka, it is essential to assess food consumption patterns. Because pulses are a major source of nutrients, this paper employed the Linear Approximation of the Almost Ideal Demand System (LA/AIDS to estimate price and expenditure elasticities for six types of pulses, by utilizing the Household Income and Expenditure Survey, 2006/07. The infrequency of purchases, a typical problem encountered in LA/AIDS estimation is circumvented by using a probit regression in the first stage, to capture the effect of demographic factors, in consumption choice. Results reveal that the buying decision of pulses is influenced by the sector (rural, urban and estate, household size, education level, presence of children, prevalence of blood pressure and diabetes. All pulses types except dhal are highly responsive to their own prices. Dhal is identified as the most prominent choice among all other alternatives and hence, it is distinguished as a necessity whereas, the rest show luxurious behavior, with the income. Because dhal is an import product, consumption choices of dhal may be severely affected by any action which exporting countries introduce, while rest of the pulses will be affected by both price and income oriented policies.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Abdolreza Yazdani-Chamzini
2017-12-01
Full Text Available Cost estimation is an essential issue in feasibility studies in civil engineering. Many different methods can be applied to modelling costs. These methods can be divided into several main groups: (1 artificial intelligence, (2 statistical methods, and (3 analytical methods. In this paper, the multivariate regression (MVR method, which is one of the most popular linear models, and the artificial neural network (ANN method, which is widely applied to solving different prediction problems with a high degree of accuracy, have been combined to provide a cost estimate model for a shovel machine. This hybrid methodology is proposed, taking the advantages of MVR and ANN models in linear and nonlinear modelling, respectively. In the proposed model, the unique advantages of the MVR model in linear modelling are used first to recognize the existing linear structure in data, and, then, the ANN for determining nonlinear patterns in preprocessed data is applied. The results with three indices indicate that the proposed model is efficient and capable of increasing the prediction accuracy.
Stackelberg, Paul E.; Barbash, Jack E.; Gilliom, Robert J.; Stone, Wesley W.; Wolock, David M.
2012-01-01
Tobit regression models were developed to predict the summed concentration of atrazine [6-chloro-N-ethyl-N'-(1-methylethyl)-1,3,5-triazine-2,4-diamine] and its degradate deethylatrazine [6-chloro-N-(1-methylethyl)-1,3,5,-triazine-2,4-diamine] (DEA) in shallow groundwater underlying agricultural settings across the conterminous United States. The models were developed from atrazine and DEA concentrations in samples from 1298 wells and explanatory variables that represent the source of atrazine and various aspects of the transport and fate of atrazine and DEA in the subsurface. One advantage of these newly developed models over previous national regression models is that they predict concentrations (rather than detection frequency), which can be compared with water quality benchmarks. Model results indicate that variability in the concentration of atrazine residues (atrazine plus DEA) in groundwater underlying agricultural areas is more strongly controlled by the history of atrazine use in relation to the timing of recharge (groundwater age) than by processes that control the dispersion, adsorption, or degradation of these compounds in the saturated zone. Current (1990s) atrazine use was found to be a weak explanatory variable, perhaps because it does not represent the use of atrazine at the time of recharge of the sampled groundwater and because the likelihood that these compounds will reach the water table is affected by other factors operating within the unsaturated zone, such as soil characteristics, artificial drainage, and water movement. Results show that only about 5% of agricultural areas have greater than a 10% probability of exceeding the USEPA maximum contaminant level of 3.0 μg L-1. These models are not developed for regulatory purposes but rather can be used to (i) identify areas of potential concern, (ii) provide conservative estimates of the concentrations of atrazine residues in deeper potential drinking water supplies, and (iii) set priorities
Paul, Suman; Ali, Muhammad; Chatterjee, Rima
2018-01-01
Velocity of compressional wave ( V P) of coal and non-coal lithology is predicted from five wells from the Bokaro coalfield (CF), India. Shear sonic travel time logs are not recorded for all wells under the study area. Shear wave velocity ( Vs) is available only for two wells: one from east and other from west Bokaro CF. The major lithologies of this CF are dominated by coal, shaly coal of Barakar formation. This paper focuses on the (a) relationship between Vp and Vs, (b) prediction of Vp using regression and neural network modeling and (c) estimation of maximum horizontal stress from image log. Coal characterizes with low acoustic impedance (AI) as compared to the overlying and underlying strata. The cross-plot between AI and Vp/ Vs is able to identify coal, shaly coal, shale and sandstone from wells in Bokaro CF. The relationship between Vp and Vs is obtained with excellent goodness of fit ( R 2) ranging from 0.90 to 0.93. Linear multiple regression and multi-layered feed-forward neural network (MLFN) models are developed for prediction Vp from two wells using four input log parameters: gamma ray, resistivity, bulk density and neutron porosity. Regression model predicted Vp shows poor fit (from R 2 = 0.28) to good fit ( R 2 = 0.79) with the observed velocity. MLFN model predicted Vp indicates satisfactory to good R2 values varying from 0.62 to 0.92 with the observed velocity. Maximum horizontal stress orientation from a well at west Bokaro CF is studied from Formation Micro-Imager (FMI) log. Breakouts and drilling-induced fractures (DIFs) are identified from the FMI log. Breakout length of 4.5 m is oriented towards N60°W whereas the orientation of DIFs for a cumulative length of 26.5 m is varying from N15°E to N35°E. The mean maximum horizontal stress in this CF is towards N28°E.
Veerkamp, R F; Koenen, E P; De Jong, G
2001-10-01
Twenty type classifiers scored body condition (BCS) of 91,738 first-parity cows from 601 sires and 5518 maternal grandsires. Fertility data during first lactation were extracted for 177,220 cows, of which 67,278 also had a BCS observation, and first-lactation 305-d milk, fat, and protein yields were added for 180,631 cows. Heritabilities and genetic correlations were estimated using a sire-maternal grandsire model. Heritability of BCS was 0.38. Heritabilities for fertility traits were low (0.01 to 0.07), but genetic standard deviations were substantial, 9 d for days to first service and calving interval, 0.25 for number of services, and 5% for first-service conception. Phenotypic correlations between fertility and yield or BCS were small (-0.15 to 0.20). Genetic correlations between yield and all fertility traits were unfavorable (0.37 to 0.74). Genetic correlations with BCS were between -0.4 and -0.6 for calving interval and days to first service. Random regression analysis (RR) showed that correlations changed with days in milk for BCS. Little agreement was found between variances and correlations from RR, and analysis including a single month (mo 1 to 10) of data for BCS, especially during early and late lactation. However, this was due to excluding data from the conventional analysis, rather than due to the polynomials used. RR and a conventional five-traits model where BCS in mo 1, 4, 7, and 10 was treated as a separate traits (plus yield or fertility) gave similar results. Thus a parsimonious random regression model gave more realistic estimates for the (co)variances than a series of bivariate analysis on subsets of the data for BCS. A higher genetic merit for yield has unfavorable effects on fertility, but the genetic correlation suggests that BCS (at some stages of lactation) might help to alleviate the unfavorable effect of selection for higher yield on fertility.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Corrado Dimauro
2010-01-01
Full Text Available Two methods of SNPs pre-selection based on single marker regression for the estimation of genomic breeding values (G-EBVs were compared using simulated data provided by the XII QTL-MAS workshop: i Bonferroni correction of the significance threshold and ii Permutation test to obtain the reference distribution of the null hypothesis and identify significant markers at P<0.01 and P<0.001 significance thresholds. From the set of markers significant at P<0.001, random subsets of 50% and 25% markers were extracted, to evaluate the effect of further reducing the number of significant SNPs on G-EBV predictions. The Bonferroni correction method allowed the identification of 595 significant SNPs that gave the best G-EBV accuracies in prediction generations (82.80%. The permutation methods gave slightly lower G-EBV accuracies even if a larger number of SNPs resulted significant (2,053 and 1,352 for 0.01 and 0.001 significance thresholds, respectively. Interestingly, halving or dividing by four the number of SNPs significant at P<0.001 resulted in an only slightly decrease of G-EBV accuracies. The genetic structure of the simulated population with few QTL carrying large effects, might have favoured the Bonferroni method.
Akita, Yasuyuki; Baldasano, Jose M; Beelen, Rob; Cirach, Marta; de Hoogh, Kees; Hoek, Gerard; Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark; Serre, Marc L; de Nazelle, Audrey
2014-04-15
In recognition that intraurban exposure gradients may be as large as between-city variations, recent air pollution epidemiologic studies have become increasingly interested in capturing within-city exposure gradients. In addition, because of the rapidly accumulating health data, recent studies also need to handle large study populations distributed over large geographic domains. Even though several modeling approaches have been introduced, a consistent modeling framework capturing within-city exposure variability and applicable to large geographic domains is still missing. To address these needs, we proposed a modeling framework based on the Bayesian Maximum Entropy method that integrates monitoring data and outputs from existing air quality models based on Land Use Regression (LUR) and Chemical Transport Models (CTM). The framework was applied to estimate the yearly average NO2 concentrations over the region of Catalunya in Spain. By jointly accounting for the global scale variability in the concentration from the output of CTM and the intraurban scale variability through LUR model output, the proposed framework outperformed more conventional approaches.
Coskuntuncel, Orkun
2013-01-01
The purpose of this study is two-fold; the first aim being to show the effect of outliers on the widely used least squares regression estimator in social sciences. The second aim is to compare the classical method of least squares with the robust M-estimator using the "determination of coefficient" (R[superscript 2]). For this purpose,…
Ettinger, Susanne; Mounaud, Loïc; Magill, Christina; Yao-Lafourcade, Anne-Françoise; Thouret, Jean-Claude; Manville, Vern; Negulescu, Caterina; Zuccaro, Giulio; De Gregorio, Daniela; Nardone, Stefano; Uchuchoque, Juan Alexis Luque; Arguedas, Anita; Macedo, Luisa; Manrique Llerena, Nélida
2016-10-01
The focus of this study is an analysis of building vulnerability through investigating impacts from the 8 February 2013 flash flood event along the Avenida Venezuela channel in the city of Arequipa, Peru. On this day, 124.5 mm of rain fell within 3 h (monthly mean: 29.3 mm) triggering a flash flood that inundated at least 0.4 km2 of urban settlements along the channel, affecting more than 280 buildings, 23 of a total of 53 bridges (pedestrian, vehicle and railway), and leading to the partial collapse of sections of the main road, paralyzing central parts of the city for more than one week. This study assesses the aspects of building design and site specific environmental characteristics that render a building vulnerable by considering the example of a flash flood event in February 2013. A statistical methodology is developed that enables estimation of damage probability for buildings. The applied method uses observed inundation height as a hazard proxy in areas where more detailed hydrodynamic modeling data is not available. Building design and site-specific environmental conditions determine the physical vulnerability. The mathematical approach considers both physical vulnerability and hazard related parameters and helps to reduce uncertainty in the determination of descriptive parameters, parameter interdependency and respective contributions to damage. This study aims to (1) enable the estimation of damage probability for a certain hazard intensity, and (2) obtain data to visualize variations in damage susceptibility for buildings in flood prone areas. Data collection is based on a post-flood event field survey and the analysis of high (sub-metric) spatial resolution images (Pléiades 2012, 2013). An inventory of 30 city blocks was collated in a GIS database in order to estimate the physical vulnerability of buildings. As many as 1103 buildings were surveyed along the affected drainage and 898 buildings were included in the statistical analysis. Univariate and
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Johansen, Søren
2008-01-01
The reduced rank regression model is a multivariate regression model with a coefficient matrix with reduced rank. The reduced rank regression algorithm is an estimation procedure, which estimates the reduced rank regression model. It is related to canonical correlations and involves calculating...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
C. I. Cho
2016-05-01
Full Text Available The objectives of the study were to estimate genetic parameters for milk production traits of Holstein cattle using random regression models (RRMs, and to compare the goodness of fit of various RRMs with homogeneous and heterogeneous residual variances. A total of 126,980 test-day milk production records of the first parity Holstein cows between 2007 and 2014 from the Dairy Cattle Improvement Center of National Agricultural Cooperative Federation in South Korea were used. These records included milk yield (MILK, fat yield (FAT, protein yield (PROT, and solids-not-fat yield (SNF. The statistical models included random effects of genetic and permanent environments using Legendre polynomials (LP of the third to fifth order (L3–L5, fixed effects of herd-test day, year-season at calving, and a fixed regression for the test-day record (third to fifth order. The residual variances in the models were either homogeneous (HOM or heterogeneous (15 classes, HET15; 60 classes, HET60. A total of nine models (3 orders of polynomials×3 types of residual variance including L3-HOM, L3-HET15, L3-HET60, L4-HOM, L4-HET15, L4-HET60, L5-HOM, L5-HET15, and L5-HET60 were compared using Akaike information criteria (AIC and/or Schwarz Bayesian information criteria (BIC statistics to identify the model(s of best fit for their respective traits. The lowest BIC value was observed for the models L5-HET15 (MILK; PROT; SNF and L4-HET15 (FAT, which fit the best. In general, the BIC values of HET15 models for a particular polynomial order was lower than that of the HET60 model in most cases. This implies that the orders of LP and types of residual variances affect the goodness of models. Also, the heterogeneity of residual variances should be considered for the test-day analysis. The heritability estimates of from the best fitted models ranged from 0.08 to 0.15 for MILK, 0.06 to 0.14 for FAT, 0.08 to 0.12 for PROT, and 0.07 to 0.13 for SNF according to days in milk of first
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Stefanie M. Herrmann
2013-10-01
Full Text Available Field trees are an integral part of the farmed parkland landscape in West Africa and provide multiple benefits to the local environment and livelihoods. While field trees have received increasing interest in the context of strengthening resilience to climate variability and change, the actual extent of farmed parkland and spatial patterns of tree cover are largely unknown. We used the rule-based predictive modeling tool Cubist® to estimate field tree cover in the west-central agricultural region of Senegal. A collection of rules and associated multiple linear regression models was constructed from (1 a reference dataset of percent tree cover derived from very high spatial resolution data (2 m Orbview as the dependent variable, and (2 ten years of 10-day 250 m Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI composites and derived phenological metrics as independent variables. Correlation coefficients between modeled and reference percent tree cover of 0.88 and 0.77 were achieved for training and validation data respectively, with absolute mean errors of 1.07 and 1.03 percent tree cover. The resulting map shows a west-east gradient from high tree cover in the peri-urban areas of horticulture and arboriculture to low tree cover in the more sparsely populated eastern part of the study area. A comparison of current (2000s tree cover along this gradient with historic cover as seen on Corona images reveals dynamics of change but also areas of remarkable stability of field tree cover since 1968. The proposed modeling approach can help to identify locations of high and low tree cover in dryland environments and guide ground studies and management interventions aimed at promoting the integration of field trees in agricultural systems.
2017-03-23
Logistic Regression to Estimate the Median Will-Cost and Probability of Cost and Schedule Overrun for Program Managers Ryan C. Trudelle, B.S...not the other. We are able to give logistic regression models to program managers that identify several program characteristics for either...considered acceptable. We recommend the use of our logistic models as a tool to manage a portfolio of programs in order to gain potential elusive
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Fang, Yu-Hua; Kao, Tsair; Liu, Ren-Shyan; Wu, Liang-Chih
2004-01-01
A novel statistical method, namely Regression-Estimated Input Function (REIF), is proposed in this study for the purpose of non-invasive estimation of the input function for fluorine-18 2-fluoro-2-deoxy-d-glucose positron emission tomography (FDG-PET) quantitative analysis. We collected 44 patients who had undergone a blood sampling procedure during their FDG-PET scans. First, we generated tissue time-activity curves of the grey matter and the whole brain with a segmentation technique for every subject. Summations of different intervals of these two curves were used as a feature vector, which also included the net injection dose. Multiple linear regression analysis was then applied to find the correlation between the input function and the feature vector. After a simulation study with in vivo data, the data of 29 patients were applied to calculate the regression coefficients, which were then used to estimate the input functions of the other 15 subjects. Comparing the estimated input functions with the corresponding real input functions, the averaged error percentages of the area under the curve and the cerebral metabolic rate of glucose (CMRGlc) were 12.13±8.85 and 16.60±9.61, respectively. Regression analysis of the CMRGlc values derived from the real and estimated input functions revealed a high correlation (r=0.91). No significant difference was found between the real CMRGlc and that derived from our regression-estimated input function (Student's t test, P>0.05). The proposed REIF method demonstrated good abilities for input function and CMRGlc estimation, and represents a reliable replacement for the blood sampling procedures in FDG-PET quantification. (orig.)
Variational Ridging in Sea Ice Models
Roberts, A.; Hunke, E. C.; Lipscomb, W. H.; Maslowski, W.; Kamal, S.
2017-12-01
This work presents the results of a new development to make basin-scale sea ice models aware of the shape, porosity and extent of individual ridges within the pack. We have derived an analytic solution for the Euler-Lagrange equation of individual ridges that accounts for non-conservative forces, and therefore the compressive strength of individual ridges. Because a region of the pack is simply a collection of paths of individual ridges, we are able to solve the Euler-Lagrange equation for a large-scale sea ice field also, and therefore the compressive strength of a region of the pack that explicitly accounts for the macro-porosity of ridged debris. We make a number of assumptions that have simplified the problem, such as treating sea ice as a granular material in ridges, and assuming that bending moments associated with ridging are perturbations around an isostatic state. Regardless of these simplifications, the ridge model is remarkably predictive of macro-porosity and ridge shape, and, because our equations are analytic, they do not require costly computations to solve the Euler-Lagrange equation of ridges on the large scale. The new ridge model is therefore applicable to large-scale sea ice models. We present results from this theoretical development, as well as plans to apply it to the Regional Arctic System Model and a community sea ice code. Most importantly, the new ridging model is particularly useful for pinpointing gaps in our observational record of sea ice ridges, and points to the need for improved measurements of the evolution of porosity of deformed ice in the Arctic and Antarctic. Such knowledge is not only useful for improving models, but also for improving estimates of sea ice volume derived from altimetric measurements of sea ice freeboard.
A Solution to Separation and Multicollinearity in Multiple Logistic Regression.
Shen, Jianzhao; Gao, Sujuan
2008-10-01
In dementia screening tests, item selection for shortening an existing screening test can be achieved using multiple logistic regression. However, maximum likelihood estimates for such logistic regression models often experience serious bias or even non-existence because of separation and multicollinearity problems resulting from a large number of highly correlated items. Firth (1993, Biometrika, 80(1), 27-38) proposed a penalized likelihood estimator for generalized linear models and it was shown to reduce bias and the non-existence problems. The ridge regression has been used in logistic regression to stabilize the estimates in cases of multicollinearity. However, neither solves the problems for each other. In this paper, we propose a double penalized maximum likelihood estimator combining Firth's penalized likelihood equation with a ridge parameter. We present a simulation study evaluating the empirical performance of the double penalized likelihood estimator in small to moderate sample sizes. We demonstrate the proposed approach using a current screening data from a community-based dementia study.
Brian S. Cade; Barry R. Noon; Rick D. Scherer; John J. Keane
2017-01-01
Counts of avian fledglings, nestlings, or clutch size that are bounded below by zero and above by some small integer form a discrete random variable distribution that is not approximated well by conventional parametric count distributions such as the Poisson or negative binomial. We developed a logistic quantile regression model to provide estimates of the empirical...
Berry, D.P.; Buckley, F.; Dillon, P.; Evans, R.D.; Rath, M.; Veerkamp, R.F.
2003-01-01
(Co)variance components for milk yield, body condition score (BCS), body weight (BW), BCS change and BW change over different herd-year mean milk yields (HMY) and nutritional environments (concentrate feeding level, grazing severity and silage quality) were estimated using a random regression model.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Aaloke Mody
2018-06-01
Full Text Available Although randomized trials have established the clinical efficacy of treating all persons living with HIV (PLWHs, expanding treatment eligibility in the real world may have additional behavioral effects (e.g., changes in retention or lead to unintended consequences (e.g., crowding out sicker patients owing to increased patient volume. Using a regression discontinuity design, we sought to assess the effects of a previous change to Zambia's HIV treatment guidelines increasing the threshold for treatment eligibility from 350 to 500 cells/μL to anticipate effects of current global efforts to treat all PLWHs.We analyzed antiretroviral therapy (ART-naïve adults who newly enrolled in HIV care in a network of 64 clinics operated by the Zambian Ministry of Health and supported by the Centre for Infectious Disease Research in Zambia (CIDRZ. Patients were restricted to those enrolling in a narrow window around the April 1, 2014 change to Zambian HIV treatment guidelines that raised the CD4 threshold for treatment from 350 to 500 cells/μL (i.e., August 1, 2013, to November 1, 2014. Clinical and sociodemographic data were obtained from an electronic medical record system used in routine care. We used a regression discontinuity design to estimate the effects of this change in treatment eligibility on ART initiation within 3 months of enrollment, retention in care at 6 months (defined as clinic attendance between 3 and 9 months after enrollment, and a composite of both ART initiation by 3 months and retention in care at 6 months in all new enrollees. We also performed an instrumental variable (IV analysis to quantify the effect of actually initiating ART because of this guideline change on retention. Overall, 34,857 ART-naïve patients (39.1% male, median age 34 years [IQR 28-41], median CD4 268 cells/μL [IQR 134-430] newly enrolled in HIV care during this period; 23,036 were analyzed after excluding patients around the threshold to allow for clinic
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Katelin H. Childers
2015-11-01
Full Text Available Using vessel-mounted acoustic Doppler current profiler data from four different routes between Scotland, Iceland and Greenland, we map out the mean flow of water in the top 400 m of the northeastern North Atlantic. The poleward transport east of the Reykjanes Ridge (RR decreases from ~8.5 to 10 Sv (1 Sverdrup=106 m3 s−1 at 59.5°N to 61°N to 6 Sv crossing the Iceland–Faroes–Scotland Ridge. The two longest ~1200 km transport integrals have 1.4–0.94 Sv uncertainty, respectively. The overall decrease in transport can in large measure be accounted for by a ~1.5 Sv flow across the RR into the Irminger Sea north of 59.5°N and by a ~0.5 Sv overflow of dense water along the Iceland–Faroes Ridge. A remaining 0.5 Sv flux divergence is at the edge of detectability, but if real could be accounted for through wintertime convection to >400 m and densification of upper ocean water. The topography of the Iceland Basin and the banks west of Scotland play a fundamental role in controlling flow pathways towards and past Iceland, the Faroes and Scotland. Most water flows north unimpeded through the Iceland Basin, some in the centre of the basin along the Maury Channel, and some along Hatton Bank, turning east along the northern slopes of George Bligh Bank, Lousy Bank and Bill Bailey's Bank, whereupon the flow splits with ~3 Sv turning northwest towards the Iceland–Faroes Ridge and the remainder continuing east towards and north of the Wyville-Thomson Ridge (WTR to the Scotland slope thereby increasing the Slope Current transport from ~1.5 Sv south of the WTR to 3.5 Sv in the Faroes–Shetland Channel.
Martínez Gila, Diego Manuel; Cano Marchal, Pablo; Gómez Ortega, Juan; Gámez García, Javier
2018-03-25
Normally the olive oil quality is assessed by chemical analysis according to international standards. These norms define chemical and organoleptic markers, and depending on the markers, the olive oil can be labelled as lampante, virgin, or extra virgin olive oil (EVOO), the last being an indicator of top quality. The polyphenol content is related to EVOO organoleptic features, and different scientific works have studied the positive influence that these compounds have on human health. The works carried out in this paper are focused on studying relations between the polyphenol content in olive oil samples and its spectral response in the near infrared spectra. In this context, several acquisition parameters have been assessed to optimize the measurement process within the virgin olive oil production process. The best regression model reached a mean error value of 156.14 mg/kg in leave one out cross validation, and the higher regression coefficient was 0.81 through holdout validation.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Diego Manuel Martínez Gila
2018-03-01
Full Text Available Normally the olive oil quality is assessed by chemical analysis according to international standards. These norms define chemical and organoleptic markers, and depending on the markers, the olive oil can be labelled as lampante, virgin, or extra virgin olive oil (EVOO, the last being an indicator of top quality. The polyphenol content is related to EVOO organoleptic features, and different scientific works have studied the positive influence that these compounds have on human health. The works carried out in this paper are focused on studying relations between the polyphenol content in olive oil samples and its spectral response in the near infrared spectra. In this context, several acquisition parameters have been assessed to optimize the measurement process within the virgin olive oil production process. The best regression model reached a mean error value of 156.14 mg/kg in leave one out cross validation, and the higher regression coefficient was 0.81 through holdout validation.
Bolarinwa, O A; Adeola, O
2012-12-01
Digestible and metabolizable energy contents of feed ingredients for pigs can be determined by direct or indirect methods. There are situations when only the indirect approach is suitable and the regression method is a robust indirect approach. This study was conducted to compare the direct and regression methods for determining the energy value of wheat for pigs. Twenty-four barrows with an average initial BW of 31 kg were assigned to 4 diets in a randomized complete block design. The 4 diets consisted of 969 g wheat/kg plus minerals and vitamins (sole wheat) for the direct method, corn (Zea mays)-soybean (Glycine max) meal reference diet (RD), RD + 300 g wheat/kg, and RD + 600 g wheat/kg. The 3 corn-soybean meal diets were used for the regression method and wheat replaced the energy-yielding ingredients, corn and soybean meal, so that the same ratio of corn and soybean meal across the experimental diets was maintained. The wheat used was analyzed to contain 883 g DM, 15.2 g N, and 3.94 Mcal GE/kg. Each diet was fed to 6 barrows in individual metabolism crates for a 5-d acclimation followed by a 5-d total but separate collection of feces and urine. The DE and ME for the sole wheat diet were 3.83 and 3.77 Mcal/kg DM, respectively. Because the sole wheat diet contained 969 g wheat/kg, these translate to 3.95 Mcal DE/kg DM and 3.89 Mcal ME/kg DM. The RD used for the regression approach yielded 4.00 Mcal DE and 3.91 Mcal ME/kg DM diet. Increasing levels of wheat in the RD linearly reduced (P direct method (3.95 and 3.89 Mcal/kg DM) did not differ (0.78 < P < 0.89) from those obtained using the regression method (3.96 and 3.88 Mcal/kg DM).
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hu, Chao; Jain, Gaurav; Zhang, Puqiang; Schmidt, Craig; Gomadam, Parthasarathy; Gorka, Tom
2014-01-01
Highlights: • We develop a data-driven method for the battery capacity estimation. • Five charge-related features that are indicative of the capacity are defined. • The kNN regression model captures the dependency of the capacity on the features. • Results with 10 years’ continuous cycling data verify the effectiveness of the method. - Abstract: Reliability of lithium-ion (Li-ion) rechargeable batteries used in implantable medical devices has been recognized as of high importance from a broad range of stakeholders, including medical device manufacturers, regulatory agencies, physicians, and patients. To ensure Li-ion batteries in these devices operate reliably, it is important to be able to assess the battery health condition by estimating the battery capacity over the life-time. This paper presents a data-driven method for estimating the capacity of Li-ion battery based on the charge voltage and current curves. The contributions of this paper are three-fold: (i) the definition of five characteristic features of the charge curves that are indicative of the capacity, (ii) the development of a non-linear kernel regression model, based on the k-nearest neighbor (kNN) regression, that captures the complex dependency of the capacity on the five features, and (iii) the adaptation of particle swarm optimization (PSO) to finding the optimal combination of feature weights for creating a kNN regression model that minimizes the cross validation (CV) error in the capacity estimation. Verification with 10 years’ continuous cycling data suggests that the proposed method is able to accurately estimate the capacity of Li-ion battery throughout the whole life-time
Oden, Timothy D.; Asquith, William H.; Milburn, Matthew S.
2009-01-01
In December 2005, the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the City of Houston, Texas, began collecting discrete water-quality samples for nutrients, total organic carbon, bacteria (total coliform and Escherichia coli), atrazine, and suspended sediment at two U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations upstream from Lake Houston near Houston (08068500 Spring Creek near Spring, Texas, and 08070200 East Fork San Jacinto River near New Caney, Texas). The data from the discrete water-quality samples collected during 2005-07, in conjunction with monitored real-time data already being collected - physical properties (specific conductance, pH, water temperature, turbidity, and dissolved oxygen), streamflow, and rainfall - were used to develop regression models for predicting water-quality constituent concentrations for inflows to Lake Houston. Rainfall data were obtained from a rain gage monitored by Harris County Homeland Security and Emergency Management and colocated with the Spring Creek station. The leaps and bounds algorithm was used to find the best subsets of possible regression models (minimum residual sum of squares for a given number of variables). The potential explanatory or predictive variables included discharge (streamflow), specific conductance, pH, water temperature, turbidity, dissolved oxygen, rainfall, and time (to account for seasonal variations inherent in some water-quality data). The response variables at each site were nitrite plus nitrate nitrogen, total phosphorus, organic carbon, Escherichia coli, atrazine, and suspended sediment. The explanatory variables provide easily measured quantities as a means to estimate concentrations of the various constituents under investigation, with accompanying estimates of measurement uncertainty. Each regression equation can be used to estimate concentrations of a given constituent in real time. In conjunction with estimated concentrations, constituent loads were estimated by multiplying the
Support vector regression model for the estimation of γ-ray buildup factors for multi-layer shields
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Trontl, Kresimir; Smuc, Tomislav; Pevec, Dubravko
2007-01-01
The accuracy of the point-kernel method, which is a widely used practical tool for γ-ray shielding calculations, strongly depends on the quality and accuracy of buildup factors used in the calculations. Although, buildup factors for single-layer shields comprised of a single material are well known, calculation of buildup factors for stratified shields, each layer comprised of different material or a combination of materials, represent a complex physical problem. Recently, a new compact mathematical model for multi-layer shield buildup factor representation has been suggested for embedding into point-kernel codes thus replacing traditionally generated complex mathematical expressions. The new regression model is based on support vector machines learning technique, which is an extension of Statistical Learning Theory. The paper gives complete description of the novel methodology with results pertaining to realistic engineering multi-layer shielding geometries. The results based on support vector regression machine learning confirm that this approach provides a framework for general, accurate and computationally acceptable multi-layer buildup factor model
Oak Ridge Reservation environmental report for 1991
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mucke, P.C.
1992-10-01
The Oak Ridge Reservation Environmental Report for 1991 is the 21st in a series that began in 1971. The report documents the annual results of a comprehensive program to estimate the impact of the US Department of Energy (DOE) Oak Ridge operations upon human health and the environment. The report is organized into ten sections that address various aspects of effluent monitoring, environmental surveillance, dose assessment, waste management, and quality assurance. A compliance summary gives a synopsis of the status of each facility relative to applicable state and federal regulations. Data are included for the following: Oak Ridge Y-12 Plant; Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL); and Oak Ridge K-25 Site. Effluent monitoring and environmental surveillance programs are intended to serve as effective indicators of contaminant releases and ambient contaminant concentrations that have the potential to result in adverse impacts to human health and the environment
Holtschlag, David J.
2011-01-01
In Michigan, index flow Q50 is a streamflow characteristic defined as the minimum of median flows for July, August, and September. The state of Michigan uses index flow estimates to help regulate large (greater than 100,000 gallons per day) water withdrawals to prevent adverse effects on characteristic fish populations. At sites where long-term streamgages are located, index flows are computed directly from continuous streamflow records as GageQ50. In an earlier study, a multiple-regression equation was developed to estimate index flows IndxQ50 at ungaged sites. The index equation explains about 94 percent of the variability of index flows at 147 (index) streamgages by use of six explanatory variables describing soil type, aquifer transmissivity, land cover, and precipitation characteristics. This report extends the results of the previous study, by use of Monte Carlo simulations, to evaluate alternative flow estimators, DiscQ50, IntgQ50, SiteQ50, and AugmQ50. The Monte Carlo simulations treated each of the available index streamgages, in turn, as a miscellaneous site where streamflow conditions are described by one or more instantaneous measurements of flow. In the simulations, instantaneous flows were approximated by daily mean flows at the corresponding site. All estimators use information that can be obtained from instantaneous flow measurements and contemporaneous daily mean flow data from nearby long-term streamgages. The efficacy of these estimators was evaluated over a set of measurement intensities in which the number of simulated instantaneous flow measurements ranged from 1 to 100 at a site. The discrete measurement estimator DiscQ50 is based on a simple linear regression developed between information on daily mean flows at five or more streamgages near the miscellaneous site and their corresponding GageQ50 index flows. The regression relation then was used to compute a DiscQ50 estimate at the miscellaneous site by use of the simulated instantaneous flow
Baker, Ronald J.; Chepiga, Mary M.; Cauller, Stephen J.
2015-01-01
Nitrate-concentration data are used in conjunction with land-use and land-cover data to estimate median nitrate concentrations in groundwater underlying the New Jersey (NJ) Highlands Region. Sources of data on nitrate in 19,670 groundwater samples are from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Water Information System (NWIS) and the NJ Private Well Testing Act (PWTA).
Nazeer, Majid; Bilal, Muhammad
2018-04-01
Landsat-5 Thematic Mapper (TM) dataset have been used to estimate salinity in the coastal area of Hong Kong. Four adjacent Landsat TM images were used in this study, which was atmospherically corrected using the Second Simulation of the Satellite Signal in the Solar Spectrum (6S) radiative transfer code. The atmospherically corrected images were further used to develop models for salinity using Ordinary Least Square (OLS) regression and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) based on in situ data of October 2009. Results show that the coefficient of determination ( R 2) of 0.42 between the OLS estimated and in situ measured salinity is much lower than that of the GWR model, which is two times higher ( R 2 = 0.86). It indicates that the GWR model has more ability than the OLS regression model to predict salinity and show its spatial heterogeneity better. It was observed that the salinity was high in Deep Bay (north-western part of Hong Kong) which might be due to the industrial waste disposal, whereas the salinity was estimated to be constant (32 practical salinity units) towards the open sea.
Tang, Yongqiang
2015-01-01
A sample size formula is derived for negative binomial regression for the analysis of recurrent events, in which subjects can have unequal follow-up time. We obtain sharp lower and upper bounds on the required size, which is easy to compute. The upper bound is generally only slightly larger than the required size, and hence can be used to approximate the sample size. The lower and upper size bounds can be decomposed into two terms. The first term relies on the mean number of events in each group, and the second term depends on two factors that measure, respectively, the extent of between-subject variability in event rates, and follow-up time. Simulation studies are conducted to assess the performance of the proposed method. An application of our formulae to a multiple sclerosis trial is provided.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Wedagama D.M.P.
2010-01-01
Full Text Available In Denpasar the capital of Bali Province, motorcycle accident contributes to about 80% of total road accidents. Out of those motorcycle accidents, 32% are fatal accidents. This study investigates the influence of accident related factors on motorcycle fatal accidents in the city of Denpasar during period 2006-2008 using a logistic regression model. The study found that the fatality of collision with pedestrians and right angle accidents were respectively about 0.44 and 0.40 times lower than collision with other vehicles and accidents due to other factors. In contrast, the odds that a motorcycle accident will be fatal due to collision with heavy and light vehicles were 1.67 times more likely than with other motorcycles. Collision with pedestrians, right angle accidents, and heavy and light vehicles were respectively accounted for 31%, 29%, and 63% of motorcycle fatal accidents.
NeCamp, Timothy; Kilbourne, Amy; Almirall, Daniel
2017-08-01
Cluster-level dynamic treatment regimens can be used to guide sequential treatment decision-making at the cluster level in order to improve outcomes at the individual or patient-level. In a cluster-level dynamic treatment regimen, the treatment is potentially adapted and re-adapted over time based on changes in the cluster that could be impacted by prior intervention, including aggregate measures of the individuals or patients that compose it. Cluster-randomized sequential multiple assignment randomized trials can be used to answer multiple open questions preventing scientists from developing high-quality cluster-level dynamic treatment regimens. In a cluster-randomized sequential multiple assignment randomized trial, sequential randomizations occur at the cluster level and outcomes are observed at the individual level. This manuscript makes two contributions to the design and analysis of cluster-randomized sequential multiple assignment randomized trials. First, a weighted least squares regression approach is proposed for comparing the mean of a patient-level outcome between the cluster-level dynamic treatment regimens embedded in a sequential multiple assignment randomized trial. The regression approach facilitates the use of baseline covariates which is often critical in the analysis of cluster-level trials. Second, sample size calculators are derived for two common cluster-randomized sequential multiple assignment randomized trial designs for use when the primary aim is a between-dynamic treatment regimen comparison of the mean of a continuous patient-level outcome. The methods are motivated by the Adaptive Implementation of Effective Programs Trial which is, to our knowledge, the first-ever cluster-randomized sequential multiple assignment randomized trial in psychiatry.
Watson, Kara M.; McHugh, Amy R.
2014-01-01
Regional regression equations were developed for estimating monthly flow-duration and monthly low-flow frequency statistics for ungaged streams in Coastal Plain and non-coastal regions of New Jersey for baseline and current land- and water-use conditions. The equations were developed to estimate 87 different streamflow statistics, which include the monthly 99-, 90-, 85-, 75-, 50-, and 25-percentile flow-durations of the minimum 1-day daily flow; the August–September 99-, 90-, and 75-percentile minimum 1-day daily flow; and the monthly 7-day, 10-year (M7D10Y) low-flow frequency. These 87 streamflow statistics were computed for 41 continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations (streamgages) with 20 or more years of record and 167 low-flow partial-record stations in New Jersey with 10 or more streamflow measurements. The regression analyses used to develop equations to estimate selected streamflow statistics were performed by testing the relation between flow-duration statistics and low-flow frequency statistics for 32 basin characteristics (physical characteristics, land use, surficial geology, and climate) at the 41 streamgages and 167 low-flow partial-record stations. The regression analyses determined drainage area, soil permeability, average April precipitation, average June precipitation, and percent storage (water bodies and wetlands) were the significant explanatory variables for estimating the selected flow-duration and low-flow frequency statistics. Streamflow estimates were computed for two land- and water-use conditions in New Jersey—land- and water-use during the baseline period of record (defined as the years a streamgage had little to no change in development and water use) and current land- and water-use conditions (1989–2008)—for each selected station using data collected through water year 2008. The baseline period of record is representative of a period when the basin was unaffected by change in development. The current period is
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yaxiong Ma
2018-03-01
Full Text Available Housing is a key component of urban sustainability. The objective of this study was to assess the significance of key spatial determinants of median home price in towns in Massachusetts that impact sustainable growth. Our analysis investigates the presence or absence of spatial non-stationarity in the relationship between sustainable growth, measured in terms of the relationship between home values and various parameters including the amount of unprotected forest land, residential land, unemployment, education, vehicle ownership, accessibility to commuter rail stations, school district performance, and senior population. We use the standard geographically weighted regression (GWR and Mixed GWR models to analyze the effects of spatial non-stationarity. Mixed GWR performed better than GWR in terms of Akaike Information Criterion (AIC values. Our findings highlight the nature and spatial extent of the non-stationary vs. stationary qualities of key environmental and social determinants of median home price. Understanding the key determinants of housing values, such as valuation of green spaces, public school performance metrics, and proximity to public transport, enable towns to use different strategies of sustainable urban planning, while understanding urban housing determinants—such as unemployment and senior population—can help modify urban sustainable housing policies.
Anand, Jasdeep S.; Monks, Paul S.
2017-07-01
Land use regression (LUR) models have been used in epidemiology to determine the fine-scale spatial variation in air pollutants such as nitrogen dioxide (NO2) in cities and larger regions. However, they are often limited in their temporal resolution, which may potentially be rectified by employing the synoptic coverage provided by satellite measurements. In this work a mixed-effects LUR model is developed to model daily surface NO2 concentrations over the Hong Kong SAR during the period 2005-2015. In situ measurements from the Hong Kong Air Quality Monitoring Network, along with tropospheric vertical column density (VCD) data from the OMI, GOME-2A, and SCIAMACHY satellite instruments were combined with fine-scale land use parameters to provide the spatiotemporal information necessary to predict daily surface concentrations. Cross-validation with the in situ data shows that the mixed-effects LUR model using OMI data has a high predictive power (adj. R2 = 0. 84), especially when compared with surface concentrations derived using the MACC-II reanalysis model dataset (adj. R2 = 0. 11). Time series analysis shows no statistically significant trend in NO2 concentrations during 2005-2015, despite a reported decline in NOx emissions. This study demonstrates the utility in combining satellite data with LUR models to derive daily maps of ambient surface NO2 for use in exposure studies.
Bolarinwa, O A; Adeola, O
2016-02-01
Direct or indirect methods can be used to determine the DE and ME of feed ingredients for pigs. In situations when only the indirect approach is suitable, the regression method presents a robust indirect approach. Three experiments were conducted to compare the direct and regression methods for determining the DE and ME values of barley, sorghum, and wheat for pigs. In each experiment, 24 barrows with an average initial BW of 31, 32, and 33 kg were assigned to 4 diets in a randomized complete block design. The 4 diets consisted of 969 g barley, sorghum, or wheat/kg plus minerals and vitamins for the direct method; a corn-soybean meal reference diet (RD); the RD + 300 g barley, sorghum, or wheat/kg; and the RD + 600 g barley, sorghum, or wheat/kg. The 3 corn-soybean meal diets were used for the regression method. Each diet was fed to 6 barrows in individual metabolism crates for a 5-d acclimation followed by a 5-d period of total but separate collection of feces and urine in each experiment. Graded substitution of barley or wheat, but not sorghum, into the RD linearly reduced ( direct method-derived DE and ME for barley were 3,669 and 3,593 kcal/kg DM, respectively. The regressions of barley contribution to DE and ME in kilocalories against the quantity of barley DMI in kilograms generated 3,746 kcal DE/kg DM and 3,647 kcal ME/kg DM. The DE and ME for sorghum by the direct method were 4,097 and 4,042 kcal/kg DM, respectively; the corresponding regression-derived estimates were 4,145 and 4,066 kcal/kg DM. Using the direct method, energy values for wheat were 3,953 kcal DE/kg DM and 3,889 kcal ME/kg DM. The regressions of wheat contribution to DE and ME in kilocalories against the quantity of wheat DMI in kilograms generated 3,960 kcal DE/kg DM and 3,874 kcal ME/kg DM. The DE and ME of barley using the direct method were not different (0.3 direct method-derived DE and ME of sorghum were not different (0.5 direct method- and regression method-derived DE (3,953 and 3
Abdulredha, Muhammad; Al Khaddar, Rafid; Jordan, David; Kot, Patryk; Abdulridha, Ali; Hashim, Khalid
2018-04-26
Major-religious festivals hosted in the city of Kerbala, Iraq, annually generate large quantities of Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) which negatively impacts the environment and human health when poorly managed. The hospitality sector, specifically hotels, is one of the major sources of MSW generated during these festivals. Because it is essential to establish a proper waste management system for such festivals, accurate information regarding MSW generation is required. This study therefore investigated the rate of production of MSW from hotels in Kerbala during major festivals. A field questionnaire survey was conducted with 150 hotels during the Arba'een festival, one of the largest festivals in the world, attended by about 18 million participants, to identify how much MSW is produced and what features of hotels impact on this. Hotel managers responded to questions regarding features of the hotel such as size (Hs), expenditure (Hex), area (Ha) and number of staff (Hst). An on-site audit was also carried out with all participating hotels to estimate the mass of MSW generated from these hotels. The results indicate that MSW produced by hotels varies widely. In general, it was found that each hotel guest produces an estimated 0.89 kg of MSW per day. However, this figure varies according to the hotels' rating. Average rates of MSW production from one and four star hotels were 0.83 and 1.22 kg per guest per day, respectively. Statistically, it was found that the relationship between MSW production and hotel features can be modelled with an R 2 of 0.799, where the influence of hotel feature on MSW production followed the order Hs > Hex > Hst. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Hodgson, Robert; Reason, Timothy; Trueman, David; Wickstead, Rose; Kusel, Jeanette; Jasilek, Adam; Claxton, Lindsay; Taylor, Matthew; Pulikottil-Jacob, Ruth
2017-10-01
The estimation of utility values for the economic evaluation of therapies for wet age-related macular degeneration (AMD) is a particular challenge. Previous economic models in wet AMD have been criticized for failing to capture the bilateral nature of wet AMD by modelling visual acuity (VA) and utility values associated with the better-seeing eye only. Here we present a de novo regression analysis using generalized estimating equations (GEE) applied to a previous dataset of time trade-off (TTO)-derived utility values from a sample of the UK population that wore contact lenses to simulate visual deterioration in wet AMD. This analysis allows utility values to be estimated as a function of VA in both the better-seeing eye (BSE) and worse-seeing eye (WSE). VAs in both the BSE and WSE were found to be statistically significant (p regression analysis provides a possible source of utility values to allow future economic models to capture the quality of life impact of changes in VA in both eyes. Novartis Pharmaceuticals UK Limited.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ajay Singh
2016-06-01
Full Text Available A single trait linear mixed random regression test-day model was applied for the first time for analyzing the first lactation monthly test-day milk yield records in Karan Fries cattle. The test-day milk yield data was modeled using a random regression model (RRM considering different order of Legendre polynomial for the additive genetic effect (4th order and the permanent environmental effect (5th order. Data pertaining to 1,583 lactation records spread over a period of 30 years were recorded and analyzed in the study. The variance component, heritability and genetic correlations among test-day milk yields were estimated using RRM. RRM heritability estimates of test-day milk yield varied from 0.11 to 0.22 in different test-day records. The estimates of genetic correlations between different test-day milk yields ranged 0.01 (test-day 1 [TD-1] and TD-11 to 0.99 (TD-4 and TD-5. The magnitudes of genetic correlations between test-day milk yields decreased as the interval between test-days increased and adjacent test-day had higher correlations. Additive genetic and permanent environment variances were higher for test-day milk yields at both ends of lactation. The residual variance was observed to be lower than the permanent environment variance for all the test-day milk yields.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Bache, Stefan Holst
A new and alternative quantile regression estimator is developed and it is shown that the estimator is root n-consistent and asymptotically normal. The estimator is based on a minimax ‘deviance function’ and has asymptotically equivalent properties to the usual quantile regression estimator. It is......, however, a different and therefore new estimator. It allows for both linear- and nonlinear model specifications. A simple algorithm for computing the estimates is proposed. It seems to work quite well in practice but whether it has theoretical justification is still an open question....
Shastri, Niket; Pathak, Kamlesh
2018-05-01
The water vapor content in atmosphere plays very important role in climate. In this paper the application of GPS signal in meteorology is discussed, which is useful technique that is used to estimate the perceptible water vapor of atmosphere. In this paper various algorithms like artificial neural network, support vector machine and multiple linear regression are use to predict perceptible water vapor. The comparative studies in terms of root mean square error and mean absolute errors are also carried out for all the algorithms.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Nakagawa, S [Maizuru National College of Technology, Kyoto (Japan); Kenmoku, Y; Sakakibara, T [Toyohashi University of Technology, Aichi (Japan); Kawamoto, T [Shizuoka University, Shizuoka (Japan). Faculty of Engineering
1996-10-27
Study is under way for a more accurate solar radiation quantity prediction for the enhancement of solar energy utilization efficiency. Utilizing the technique of roughly estimating the day`s clearness index from forecast weather, the forecast weather (constituted of weather conditions such as `clear,` `cloudy,` etc., and adverbs or adjectives such as `afterward,` `temporary,` and `intermittent`) has been quantified relative to the clearness index. This index is named the `weather index` for the purpose of this article. The error high in rate in the weather index relates to cloudy days, which means a weather index falling in 0.2-0.5. It has also been found that there is a high correlation between the clearness index and the north-south wind direction component. A multiple regression analysis has been carried out, under the circumstances, for the estimation of clearness index from the maximum temperature and the north-south wind direction component. As compared with estimation of the clearness index on the basis only of the weather index, estimation using the weather index and maximum temperature achieves a 3% improvement throughout the year. It has also been learned that estimation by use of the weather index and north-south wind direction component enables a 2% improvement for summer and a 5% or higher improvement for winter. 2 refs., 6 figs., 4 tabs.
Ichii, Kazuhito; Ueyama, Masahito; Kondo, Masayuki; Saigusa, Nobuko; Kim, Joon; Alberto, Ma. Carmelita; Ardö, Jonas; Euskirchen, Eugénie S.; Kang, Minseok; Hirano, Takashi; Joiner, Joanna; Kobayashi, Hideki; Marchesini, Luca Belelli; Merbold, Lutz; Miyata, Akira; Saitoh, Taku M.; Takagi, Kentaro; Varlagin, Andrej; Bret-Harte, M. Syndonia; Kitamura, Kenzo; Kosugi, Yoshiko; Kotani, Ayumi; Kumar, Kireet; Li, Sheng-Gong; Machimura, Takashi; Matsuura, Yojiro; Mizoguchi, Yasuko; Ohta, Takeshi; Mukherjee, Sandipan; Yanagi, Yuji; Yasuda, Yukio; Zhang, Yiping; Zhao, Fenghua
2017-04-01
The lack of a standardized database of eddy covariance observations has been an obstacle for data-driven estimation of terrestrial CO2 fluxes in Asia. In this study, we developed such a standardized database using 54 sites from various databases by applying consistent postprocessing for data-driven estimation of gross primary productivity (GPP) and net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE). Data-driven estimation was conducted by using a machine learning algorithm: support vector regression (SVR), with remote sensing data for 2000 to 2015 period. Site-level evaluation of the estimated CO2 fluxes shows that although performance varies in different vegetation and climate classifications, GPP and NEE at 8 days are reproduced (e.g., r2 = 0.73 and 0.42 for 8 day GPP and NEE). Evaluation of spatially estimated GPP with Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment 2 sensor-based Sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence shows that monthly GPP variations at subcontinental scale were reproduced by SVR (r2 = 1.00, 0.94, 0.91, and 0.89 for Siberia, East Asia, South Asia, and Southeast Asia, respectively). Evaluation of spatially estimated NEE with net atmosphere-land CO2 fluxes of Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT) Level 4A product shows that monthly variations of these data were consistent in Siberia and East Asia; meanwhile, inconsistency was found in South Asia and Southeast Asia. Furthermore, differences in the land CO2 fluxes from SVR-NEE and GOSAT Level 4A were partially explained by accounting for the differences in the definition of land CO2 fluxes. These data-driven estimates can provide a new opportunity to assess CO2 fluxes in Asia and evaluate and constrain terrestrial ecosystem models.
Zhang, Hongyang; Welch, William J.; Zamar, Ruben H.
2017-01-01
Tomal et al. (2015) introduced the notion of "phalanxes" in the context of rare-class detection in two-class classification problems. A phalanx is a subset of features that work well for classification tasks. In this paper, we propose a different class of phalanxes for application in regression settings. We define a "Regression Phalanx" - a subset of features that work well together for prediction. We propose a novel algorithm which automatically chooses Regression Phalanxes from high-dimensi...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Kowal Robert
2016-12-01
Full Text Available A simple linear regression model is one of the pillars of classic econometrics. Multiple areas of research function within its scope. One of the many fundamental questions in the model concerns proving the efficiency of the most commonly used OLS estimators and examining their properties. In the literature of the subject one can find taking back to this scope and certain solutions in that regard. Methodically, they are borrowed from the multiple regression model or also from a boundary partial model. Not everything, however, is here complete and consistent. In the paper a completely new scheme is proposed, based on the implementation of the Cauchy-Schwarz inequality in the arrangement of the constraint aggregated from calibrated appropriately secondary constraints of unbiasedness which in a result of choice the appropriate calibrator for each variable directly leads to showing this property. A separate range-is a matter of choice of such a calibrator. These deliberations, on account of the volume and kinds of the calibration, were divided into a few parts. In the one the efficiency of OLS estimators is proven in a mixed scheme of the calibration by averages, that is preliminary, and in the most basic frames of the proposed methodology. In these frames the future outlines and general premises constituting the base of more distant generalizations are being created.
Farhadian, Maryam; Aliabadi, Mohsen; Darvishi, Ebrahim
2015-01-01
Prediction models are used in a variety of medical domains, and they are frequently built from experience which constitutes data acquired from actual cases. This study aimed to analyze the potential of artificial neural networks and logistic regression techniques for estimation of hearing impairment among industrial workers. A total of 210 workers employed in a steel factory (in West of Iran) were selected, and their occupational exposure histories were analyzed. The hearing loss thresholds of the studied workers were determined using a calibrated audiometer. The personal noise exposures were also measured using a noise dosimeter in the workstations. Data obtained from five variables, which can influence the hearing loss, were used as input features, and the hearing loss thresholds were considered as target feature of the prediction methods. Multilayer feedforward neural networks and logistic regression were developed using MATLAB R2011a software. Based on the World Health Organization classification for the grades of hearing loss, 74.2% of the studied workers have normal hearing thresholds, 23.4% have slight hearing loss, and 2.4% have moderate hearing loss. The accuracy and kappa coefficient of the best developed neural networks for prediction of the grades of hearing loss were 88.6 and 66.30, respectively. The accuracy and kappa coefficient of the logistic regression were also 84.28 and 51.30, respectively. Neural networks could provide more accurate predictions of the hearing loss than logistic regression. The prediction method can provide reliable and comprehensible information for occupational health and medicine experts.
Markham, Francis; Young, Martin; Doran, Bruce; Sugden, Mark
2017-05-23
Many jurisdictions regularly conduct surveys to estimate the prevalence of problem gambling in their adult populations. However, the comparison of such estimates is problematic due to methodological variations between studies. Total consumption theory suggests that an association between mean electronic gaming machine (EGM) and casino gambling losses and problem gambling prevalence estimates may exist. If this is the case, then changes in EGM losses may be used as a proxy indicator for changes in problem gambling prevalence. To test for this association this study examines the relationship between aggregated losses on electronic gaming machines (EGMs) and problem gambling prevalence estimates for Australian states and territories between 1994 and 2016. A Bayesian meta-regression analysis of 41 cross-sectional problem gambling prevalence estimates was undertaken using EGM gambling losses, year of survey and methodological variations as predictor variables. General population studies of adults in Australian states and territory published before 1 July 2016 were considered in scope. 41 studies were identified, with a total of 267,367 participants. Problem gambling prevalence, moderate-risk problem gambling prevalence, problem gambling screen, administration mode and frequency threshold were extracted from surveys. Administrative data on EGM and casino gambling loss data were extracted from government reports and expressed as the proportion of household disposable income lost. Money lost on EGMs is correlated with problem gambling prevalence. An increase of 1% of household disposable income lost on EGMs and in casinos was associated with problem gambling prevalence estimates that were 1.33 times higher [95% credible interval 1.04, 1.71]. There was no clear association between EGM losses and moderate-risk problem gambling prevalence estimates. Moderate-risk problem gambling prevalence estimates were not explained by the models (I 2 ≥ 0.97; R 2 ≤ 0.01). The
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Francis Markham
2017-05-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Many jurisdictions regularly conduct surveys to estimate the prevalence of problem gambling in their adult populations. However, the comparison of such estimates is problematic due to methodological variations between studies. Total consumption theory suggests that an association between mean electronic gaming machine (EGM and casino gambling losses and problem gambling prevalence estimates may exist. If this is the case, then changes in EGM losses may be used as a proxy indicator for changes in problem gambling prevalence. To test for this association this study examines the relationship between aggregated losses on electronic gaming machines (EGMs and problem gambling prevalence estimates for Australian states and territories between 1994 and 2016. Methods A Bayesian meta-regression analysis of 41 cross-sectional problem gambling prevalence estimates was undertaken using EGM gambling losses, year of survey and methodological variations as predictor variables. General population studies of adults in Australian states and territory published before 1 July 2016 were considered in scope. 41 studies were identified, with a total of 267,367 participants. Problem gambling prevalence, moderate-risk problem gambling prevalence, problem gambling screen, administration mode and frequency threshold were extracted from surveys. Administrative data on EGM and casino gambling loss data were extracted from government reports and expressed as the proportion of household disposable income lost. Results Money lost on EGMs is correlated with problem gambling prevalence. An increase of 1% of household disposable income lost on EGMs and in casinos was associated with problem gambling prevalence estimates that were 1.33 times higher [95% credible interval 1.04, 1.71]. There was no clear association between EGM losses and moderate-risk problem gambling prevalence estimates. Moderate-risk problem gambling prevalence estimates were not explained by
Baldwin, Austin K.; Robertson, Dale M.; Saad, David A.; Magruder, Christopher
2013-01-01
In 2008, the U.S. Geological Survey and the Milwaukee Metropolitan Sewerage District initiated a study to develop regression models to estimate real-time concentrations and loads of chloride, suspended solids, phosphorus, and bacteria in streams near Milwaukee, Wisconsin. To collect monitoring data for calibration of models, water-quality sensors and automated samplers were installed at six sites in the Menomonee River drainage basin. The sensors continuously measured four potential explanatory variables: water temperature, specific conductance, dissolved oxygen, and turbidity. Discrete water-quality samples were collected and analyzed for five response variables: chloride, total suspended solids, total phosphorus, Escherichia coli bacteria, and fecal coliform bacteria. Using the first year of data, regression models were developed to continuously estimate the response variables on the basis of the continuously measured explanatory variables. Those models were published in a previous report. In this report, those models are refined using 2 years of additional data, and the relative improvement in model predictability is discussed. In addition, a set of regression models is presented for a new site in the Menomonee River Basin, Underwood Creek at Wauwatosa. The refined models use the same explanatory variables as the original models. The chloride models all used specific conductance as the explanatory variable, except for the model for the Little Menomonee River near Freistadt, which used both specific conductance and turbidity. Total suspended solids and total phosphorus models used turbidity as the only explanatory variable, and bacteria models used water temperature and turbidity as explanatory variables. An analysis of covariance (ANCOVA), used to compare the coefficients in the original models to those in the refined models calibrated using all of the data, showed that only 3 of the 25 original models changed significantly. Root-mean-squared errors (RMSEs
Ibanez, C. A. G.; Carcellar, B. G., III; Paringit, E. C.; Argamosa, R. J. L.; Faelga, R. A. G.; Posilero, M. A. V.; Zaragosa, G. P.; Dimayacyac, N. A.
2016-06-01
Diameter-at-Breast-Height Estimation is a prerequisite in various allometric equations estimating important forestry indices like stem volume, basal area, biomass and carbon stock. LiDAR Technology has a means of directly obtaining different forest parameters, except DBH, from the behavior and characteristics of point cloud unique in different forest classes. Extensive tree inventory was done on a two-hectare established sample plot in Mt. Makiling, Laguna for a natural growth forest. Coordinates, height, and canopy cover were measured and types of species were identified to compare to LiDAR derivatives. Multiple linear regression was used to get LiDAR-derived DBH by integrating field-derived DBH and 27 LiDAR-derived parameters at 20m, 10m, and 5m grid resolutions. To know the best combination of parameters in DBH Estimation, all possible combinations of parameters were generated and automated using python scripts and additional regression related libraries such as Numpy, Scipy, and Scikit learn were used. The combination that yields the highest r-squared or coefficient of determination and lowest AIC (Akaike's Information Criterion) and BIC (Bayesian Information Criterion) was determined to be the best equation. The equation is at its best using 11 parameters at 10mgrid size and at of 0.604 r-squared, 154.04 AIC and 175.08 BIC. Combination of parameters may differ among forest classes for further studies. Additional statistical tests can be supplemented to help determine the correlation among parameters such as Kaiser- Meyer-Olkin (KMO) Coefficient and the Barlett's Test for Spherecity (BTS).
Hu, L; Liang, M; Mouraux, A; Wise, R G; Hu, Y; Iannetti, G D
2011-12-01
Across-trial averaging is a widely used approach to enhance the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of event-related potentials (ERPs). However, across-trial variability of ERP latency and amplitude may contain physiologically relevant information that is lost by across-trial averaging. Hence, we aimed to develop a novel method that uses 1) wavelet filtering (WF) to enhance the SNR of ERPs and 2) a multiple linear regression with a dispersion term (MLR(d)) that takes into account shape distortions to estimate the single-trial latency and amplitude of ERP peaks. Using simulated ERP data sets containing different levels of noise, we provide evidence that, compared with other approaches, the proposed WF+MLR(d) method yields the most accurate estimate of single-trial ERP features. When applied to a real laser-evoked potential data set, the WF+MLR(d) approach provides reliable estimation of single-trial latency, amplitude, and morphology of ERPs and thereby allows performing meaningful correlations at single-trial level. We obtained three main findings. First, WF significantly enhances the SNR of single-trial ERPs. Second, MLR(d) effectively captures and measures the variability in the morphology of single-trial ERPs, thus providing an accurate and unbiased estimate of their peak latency and amplitude. Third, intensity of pain perception significantly correlates with the single-trial estimates of N2 and P2 amplitude. These results indicate that WF+MLR(d) can be used to explore the dynamics between different ERP features, behavioral variables, and other neuroimaging measures of brain activity, thus providing new insights into the functional significance of the different brain processes underlying the brain responses to sensory stimuli.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Fitzenberger, Bernd; Wilke, Ralf Andreas
2015-01-01
if the mean regression model does not. We provide a short informal introduction into the principle of quantile regression which includes an illustrative application from empirical labor market research. This is followed by briefly sketching the underlying statistical model for linear quantile regression based......Quantile regression is emerging as a popular statistical approach, which complements the estimation of conditional mean models. While the latter only focuses on one aspect of the conditional distribution of the dependent variable, the mean, quantile regression provides more detailed insights...... by modeling conditional quantiles. Quantile regression can therefore detect whether the partial effect of a regressor on the conditional quantiles is the same for all quantiles or differs across quantiles. Quantile regression can provide evidence for a statistical relationship between two variables even...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Díaz, Santiago; Carta, José A.; Matías, José M.
2017-01-01
Highlights: • Eight measure-correlate-predict (MCP) models used to estimate the wind power densities (WPDs) at a target site are compared. • Support vector regressions are used as the main prediction techniques in the proposed MCPs. • The most precise MCP uses two sub-models which predict wind speed and air density in an unlinked manner. • The most precise model allows to construct a bivariable (wind speed and air density) WPD probability density function. • MCP models trained to minimise wind speed prediction error do not minimise WPD prediction error. - Abstract: The long-term annual mean wind power density (WPD) is an important indicator of wind as a power source which is usually included in regional wind resource maps as useful prior information to identify potentially attractive sites for the installation of wind projects. In this paper, a comparison is made of eight proposed Measure-Correlate-Predict (MCP) models to estimate the WPDs at a target site. Seven of these models use the Support Vector Regression (SVR) and the eighth the Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) technique, which serves as a basis to compare the performance of the other models. In addition, a wrapper technique with 10-fold cross-validation has been used to select the optimal set of input features for the SVR and MLR models. Some of the eight models were trained to directly estimate the mean hourly WPDs at a target site. Others, however, were firstly trained to estimate the parameters on which the WPD depends (i.e. wind speed and air density) and then, using these parameters, the target site mean hourly WPDs. The explanatory features considered are different combinations of the mean hourly wind speeds, wind directions and air densities recorded in 2014 at ten weather stations in the Canary Archipelago (Spain). The conclusions that can be drawn from the study undertaken include the argument that the most accurate method for the long-term estimation of WPDs requires the execution of a
Santos-Concejero, Jordan; Tucker, Ross; Granados, Cristina; Irazusta, Jon; Bidaurrazaga-Letona, Iraia; Zabala-Lili, Jon; Gil, Susana María
2014-01-01
This study investigated the influence of the regression model and initial intensity during an incremental test on the relationship between the lactate threshold estimated by the maximal-deviation method and performance in elite-standard runners. Twenty-three well-trained runners completed a discontinuous incremental running test on a treadmill. Speed started at 9 km · h(-1) and increased by 1.5 km · h(-1) every 4 min until exhaustion, with a minute of recovery for blood collection. Lactate-speed data were fitted by exponential and polynomial models. The lactate threshold was determined for both models, using all the co-ordinates, excluding the first and excluding the first and second points. The exponential lactate threshold was greater than the polynomial equivalent in any co-ordinate condition (P performance and is independent of the initial intensity of the test.
Passos, Cláudia P; Cardoso, Susana M; Barros, António S; Silva, Carlos M; Coimbra, Manuel A
2010-02-28
Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy has being emphasised as a widespread technique in the quick assess of food components. In this work, procyanidins were extracted with methanol and acetone/water from the seeds of white and red grape varieties. A fractionation by graded methanol/chloroform precipitations allowed to obtain 26 samples that were characterised using thiolysis as pre-treatment followed by HPLC-UV and MS detection. The average degree of polymerisation (DPn) of the procyanidins in the samples ranged from 2 to 11 flavan-3-ol residues. FTIR spectroscopy within the wavenumbers region of 1800-700 cm(-1) allowed to build a partial least squares (PLS1) regression model with 8 latent variables (LVs) for the estimation of the DPn, giving a RMSECV of 11.7%, with a R(2) of 0.91 and a RMSEP of 2.58. The application of orthogonal projection to latent structures (O-PLS1) clarifies the interpretation of the regression model vectors. Moreover, the O-PLS procedure has removed 88% of non-correlated variations with the DPn, allowing to relate the increase of the absorbance peaks at 1203 and 1099 cm(-1) with the increase of the DPn due to the higher proportion of substitutions in the aromatic ring of the polymerised procyanidin molecules. Copyright 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Southard, Rodney E.
2013-01-01
The weather and precipitation patterns in Missouri vary considerably from year to year. In 2008, the statewide average rainfall was 57.34 inches and in 2012, the statewide average rainfall was 30.64 inches. This variability in precipitation and resulting streamflow in Missouri underlies the necessity for water managers and users to have reliable streamflow statistics and a means to compute select statistics at ungaged locations for a better understanding of water availability. Knowledge of surface-water availability is dependent on the streamflow data that have been collected and analyzed by the U.S. Geological Survey for more than 100 years at approximately 350 streamgages throughout Missouri. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Missouri Department of Natural Resources, computed streamflow statistics at streamgages through the 2010 water year, defined periods of drought and defined methods to estimate streamflow statistics at ungaged locations, and developed regional regression equations to compute selected streamflow statistics at ungaged locations. Streamflow statistics and flow durations were computed for 532 streamgages in Missouri and in neighboring States of Missouri. For streamgages with more than 10 years of record, Kendall’s tau was computed to evaluate for trends in streamflow data. If trends were detected, the variable length method was used to define the period of no trend. Water years were removed from the dataset from the beginning of the record for a streamgage until no trend was detected. Low-flow frequency statistics were then computed for the entire period of record and for the period of no trend if 10 or more years of record were available for each analysis. Three methods are presented for computing selected streamflow statistics at ungaged locations. The first method uses power curve equations developed for 28 selected streams in Missouri and neighboring States that have multiple streamgages on the same streams. Statistical
Filgueiras, Paulo R; Terra, Luciana A; Castro, Eustáquio V R; Oliveira, Lize M S L; Dias, Júlio C M; Poppi, Ronei J
2015-09-01
This paper aims to estimate the temperature equivalent to 10% (T10%), 50% (T50%) and 90% (T90%) of distilled volume in crude oils using (1)H NMR and support vector regression (SVR). Confidence intervals for the predicted values were calculated using a boosting-type ensemble method in a procedure called ensemble support vector regression (eSVR). The estimated confidence intervals obtained by eSVR were compared with previously accepted calculations from partial least squares (PLS) models and a boosting-type ensemble applied in the PLS method (ePLS). By using the proposed boosting strategy, it was possible to identify outliers in the T10% property dataset. The eSVR procedure improved the accuracy of the distillation temperature predictions in relation to standard PLS, ePLS and SVR. For T10%, a root mean square error of prediction (RMSEP) of 11.6°C was obtained in comparison with 15.6°C for PLS, 15.1°C for ePLS and 28.4°C for SVR. The RMSEPs for T50% were 24.2°C, 23.4°C, 22.8°C and 14.4°C for PLS, ePLS, SVR and eSVR, respectively. For T90%, the values of RMSEP were 39.0°C, 39.9°C and 39.9°C for PLS, ePLS, SVR and eSVR, respectively. The confidence intervals calculated by the proposed boosting methodology presented acceptable values for the three properties analyzed; however, they were lower than those calculated by the standard methodology for PLS. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Thevissen, P W; Fieuws, S; Willems, G
2010-01-01
Dental age estimation methods based on the radiologically detected third molar developmental stages are implemented in forensic age assessments to discriminate between juveniles and adults considering the judgment of young unaccompanied asylum seekers. Accurate and unbiased age estimates combined with appropriate quantified uncertainties are the required properties for accurate forensic reporting. In this study, a subset of 910 individuals uniformly distributed in age between 16 and 22 years was selected from an existing dataset collected by Gunst et al. containing 2,513 panoramic radiographs with known third molar developmental stages of Belgian Caucasian men and women. This subset was randomly split in a training set to develop a classical regression analysis and a Bayesian model for the multivariate distribution of the third molar developmental stages conditional on age and in a test set to assess the performance of both models. The aim of this study was to verify if the Bayesian approach differentiates the age of maturity more precisely and removes the bias, which disadvantages the systematically overestimated young individuals. The Bayesian model offers the discrimination of subjects being older than 18 years more appropriate and produces more meaningful prediction intervals but does not strongly outperform the classical approaches.
Some Improved Classification-Based Ridge Parameter Of Hoerl And ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Of Hoerl And Kennard Estimation Techniques. 1Adewale F. Lukmanand 1Kayode Ayinde. 1 Department of Statistics, ... ordinary least square (OLS) in handling it. However, it requires a ridge parameter, K, of which many have ... handle the problem of multicollinearity. They suggested the addition of ridge parameter K to the ...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mehmet Siraç Özerdem
2017-04-01
Full Text Available Determining the soil moisture in agricultural fields is a significant parameter to use irrigation systems efficiently. In contrast to standard soil moisture measurements, good results might be acquired in a shorter time over large areas by remote sensing tools. In order to estimate the soil moisture over vegetated agricultural areas, a relationship between Radarsat-2 data and measured ground soil moistures was established by polarimetric decomposition models and a generalized regression neural network (GRNN. The experiments were executed over two agricultural sites on the Tigris Basin, Turkey. The study consists of four phases. In the first stage, Radarsat-2 data were acquired on different dates and in situ measurements were implemented simultaneously. In the second phase, the Radarsat-2 data were pre-processed and the GPS coordinates of the soil sample points were imported to this data. Then the standard sigma backscattering coefficients with the Freeman–Durden and H/A/α polarimetric decomposition models were employed for feature extraction and a feature vector with four sigma backscattering coefficients (σhh, σhv, σvh, and σvv and six polarimetric decomposition parameters (entropy, anisotropy, alpha angle, volume scattering, odd bounce, and double bounce were generated for each pattern. In the last stage, GRNN was used to estimate the regional soil moisture with the aid of feature vectors. The results indicated that radar is a strong remote sensing tool for soil moisture estimation, with mean absolute errors around 2.31 vol %, 2.11 vol %, and 2.10 vol % for Datasets 1–3, respectively; and 2.46 vol %, 2.70 vol %, 7.09 vol %, and 5.70 vol % on Datasets 1 & 2, 2 & 3, 1 & 3, and 1 & 2 & 3, respectively.
Matson, Johnny L.; Kozlowski, Alison M.
2010-01-01
Autistic regression is one of the many mysteries in the developmental course of autism and pervasive developmental disorders not otherwise specified (PDD-NOS). Various definitions of this phenomenon have been used, further clouding the study of the topic. Despite this problem, some efforts at establishing prevalence have been made. The purpose of…
Rasmussen, Teresa J.; Lee, Casey J.; Ziegler, Andrew C.
2008-01-01
Johnson County is one of the most rapidly developing counties in Kansas. Population growth and expanding urban land use affect the quality of county streams, which are important for human and environmental health, water supply, recreation, and aesthetic value. This report describes estimates of streamflow and constituent concentrations, loads, and yields in relation to watershed characteristics in five Johnson County streams using continuous in-stream sensor measurements. Specific conductance, pH, water temperature, turbidity, and dissolved oxygen were monitored in five watersheds from October 2002 through December 2006. These continuous data were used in conjunction with discrete water samples to develop regression models for continuously estimating concentrations of other constituents. Continuous regression-based concentrations were estimated for suspended sediment, total suspended solids, dissolved solids and selected major ions, nutrients (nitrogen and phosphorus species), and fecal-indicator bacteria. Continuous daily, monthly, seasonal, and annual loads were calculated from concentration estimates and streamflow. The data are used to describe differences in concentrations, loads, and yields and to explain these differences relative to watershed characteristics. Water quality at the five monitoring sites varied according to hydrologic conditions; contributing drainage area; land use (including degree of urbanization); relative contributions from point and nonpoint constituent sources; and human activity within each watershed. Dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations were less than the Kansas aquatic-life-support criterion of 5.0 mg/L less than 10 percent of the time at all sites except Indian Creek, which had DO concentrations less than the criterion about 15 percent of the time. Concentrations of suspended sediment, chloride (winter only), indicator bacteria, and pesticides were substantially larger during periods of increased streamflow. Suspended
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Matthias Schmid
Full Text Available Regression analysis with a bounded outcome is a common problem in applied statistics. Typical examples include regression models for percentage outcomes and the analysis of ratings that are measured on a bounded scale. In this paper, we consider beta regression, which is a generalization of logit models to situations where the response is continuous on the interval (0,1. Consequently, beta regression is a convenient tool for analyzing percentage responses. The classical approach to fit a beta regression model is to use maximum likelihood estimation with subsequent AIC-based variable selection. As an alternative to this established - yet unstable - approach, we propose a new estimation technique called boosted beta regression. With boosted beta regression estimation and variable selection can be carried out simultaneously in a highly efficient way. Additionally, both the mean and the variance of a percentage response can be modeled using flexible nonlinear covariate effects. As a consequence, the new method accounts for common problems such as overdispersion and non-binomial variance structures.
Olive, David J
2017-01-01
This text covers both multiple linear regression and some experimental design models. The text uses the response plot to visualize the model and to detect outliers, does not assume that the error distribution has a known parametric distribution, develops prediction intervals that work when the error distribution is unknown, suggests bootstrap hypothesis tests that may be useful for inference after variable selection, and develops prediction regions and large sample theory for the multivariate linear regression model that has m response variables. A relationship between multivariate prediction regions and confidence regions provides a simple way to bootstrap confidence regions. These confidence regions often provide a practical method for testing hypotheses. There is also a chapter on generalized linear models and generalized additive models. There are many R functions to produce response and residual plots, to simulate prediction intervals and hypothesis tests, to detect outliers, and to choose response trans...
SEPARATION PHENOMENA LOGISTIC REGRESSION
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ikaro Daniel de Carvalho Barreto
2014-03-01
Full Text Available This paper proposes an application of concepts about the maximum likelihood estimation of the binomial logistic regression model to the separation phenomena. It generates bias in the estimation and provides different interpretations of the estimates on the different statistical tests (Wald, Likelihood Ratio and Score and provides different estimates on the different iterative methods (Newton-Raphson and Fisher Score. It also presents an example that demonstrates the direct implications for the validation of the model and validation of variables, the implications for estimates of odds ratios and confidence intervals, generated from the Wald statistics. Furthermore, we present, briefly, the Firth correction to circumvent the phenomena of separation.
Callén, M S; López, J M; Mastral, A M
2010-08-15
The estimation of benzo(a)pyrene (BaP) concentrations in ambient air is very important from an environmental point of view especially with the introduction of the Directive 2004/107/EC and due to the carcinogenic character of this pollutant. A sampling campaign of particulate matter less or equal than 10 microns (PM10) carried out during 2008-2009 in four locations of Spain was collected to determine experimentally BaP concentrations by gas chromatography mass-spectrometry mass-spectrometry (GC-MS-MS). Multivariate linear regression models (MLRM) were used to predict BaP air concentrations in two sampling places, taking PM10 and meteorological variables as possible predictors. The model obtained with data from two sampling sites (all sites model) (R(2)=0.817, PRESS/SSY=0.183) included the significant variables like PM10, temperature, solar radiation and wind speed and was internally and externally validated. The first validation was performed by cross validation and the last one by BaP concentrations from previous campaigns carried out in Zaragoza from 2001-2004. The proposed model constitutes a first approximation to estimate BaP concentrations in urban atmospheres with very good internal prediction (Q(CV)(2)=0.813, PRESS/SSY=0.187) and with the maximal external prediction for the 2001-2002 campaign (Q(ext)(2)=0.679 and PRESS/SSY=0.321) versus the 2001-2004 campaign (Q(ext)(2)=0.551, PRESS/SSY=0.449). Copyright 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Callen, M.S.; Lopez, J.M.; Mastral, A.M.
2010-01-01
The estimation of benzo(a)pyrene (BaP) concentrations in ambient air is very important from an environmental point of view especially with the introduction of the Directive 2004/107/EC and due to the carcinogenic character of this pollutant. A sampling campaign of particulate matter less or equal than 10 microns (PM10) carried out during 2008-2009 in four locations of Spain was collected to determine experimentally BaP concentrations by gas chromatography mass-spectrometry mass-spectrometry (GC-MS-MS). Multivariate linear regression models (MLRM) were used to predict BaP air concentrations in two sampling places, taking PM10 and meteorological variables as possible predictors. The model obtained with data from two sampling sites (all sites model) (R 2 = 0.817, PRESS/SSY = 0.183) included the significant variables like PM10, temperature, solar radiation and wind speed and was internally and externally validated. The first validation was performed by cross validation and the last one by BaP concentrations from previous campaigns carried out in Zaragoza from 2001-2004. The proposed model constitutes a first approximation to estimate BaP concentrations in urban atmospheres with very good internal prediction (Q CV 2 =0.813, PRESS/SSY = 0.187) and with the maximal external prediction for the 2001-2002 campaign (Q ext 2 =0.679 and PRESS/SSY = 0.321) versus the 2001-2004 campaign (Q ext 2 =0.551, PRESS/SSY = 0.449).
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Møller, Per Grau
2016-01-01
Ridge and furrow is a specific way of ploughing which makes fields of systematic ridges and furrows like a rubbing washboard. They are part of an overall openfield system, but the focus in this paper is on the functionality of the fields. There are many indications that agro-technological reasons...... systems and the establishment of basic structures like villages (with churches) and townships and states (in northern Europe). The fields can be considered as a resilient structure lasting for 800 years, along with the same basic physical structures in society....
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Apif M. Hajji
2017-09-01
Full Text Available Heavy duty diesel (HDD construction equipment which includes bulldozer is important in infrastructure development. This equipment consumes large amount of diesel fuel and emits high level of carbon dioxide (CO2. The total emissions are dependent upon the fuel use, and the fuel use is dependent upon the productivity of the equipment. This paper proposes a methodology and tool for estimating CO2 emissions from bulldozer based on the productivity rate. The methodology is formulated by using the result of multiple linear regressions (MLR of CAT’s data for obtaining the productivity model and combined with the EPA’s NONROAD model. The emission factors from NONROAD model were used to quantify the CO2 emissions. To display the function of the model, a case study and sensitivity analysis for a bulldozer’s activity is also presented. MLR results indicate that the productivity model generated from CAT’s data can be used as the basis for quantifying the total CO2 emissions for an earthwork activity.
Thickness of Knox Group overburden on Central Chestnut Ridge, Oak Ridge Reservation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Staub, W.P.; Hopkins, R.A.
1984-05-01
The thickness of residual soil overlying the Knox Group along Central Chestnut Ridge was estimated by a conventional seismic refraction survey. The purpose of this survey was to identify sites on the Department of Energy's Oak Ridge Reservation where ample overburden exists above the water table for the shallow land burial of low-level radioactive waste. The results of the survey suggest that the upper slopes of the higher ridges in the area have a minimum of 16 to 26 m (52 to 85 ft) of overburden and that the crests of these ridges may have more than 30 m (100 ft). Therefore, it is unlikely that sound bedrock would be encountered during trench excavation [maximum of 10 m (32 ft)] along Central Chestnut Ridge. Also, the relatively low seismic wave velocities measured in the overburden suggest that the water table is generally deep. On the basis of these preliminary results, Central Chestnut Ridge appears to be suitable for further site characterization for the shallow land burial of low-level radioactive waste. 3 references, 5 figures, 1 table
Optical dating of dune ridges on Rømø
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Madsen, Anni Tindahl; Murray, A. S.; Andersen, Thorbjørn Joest
2007-01-01
The application of optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) to the dating of recent aeolian sand ridges on Rømø, an island off the southwest coast of Denmark, is tested. These sand ridges began to form approximately 300 years ago, and estimates of the ages are available from historical records....... Samples for OSL dating were taken ~0.5 m below the crests of four different dune ridges; at least five samples were recovered from each ridge to test the internal consistency of the ages. Additional samples were recovered from the low lying areas in the swales and from the scattered dune formations......-defined building phases separated by inactive periods and the first major ridge formed ~235 years ago. This study demonstrates that optical dating can be successfully applied to these young aeolian sand deposits, and we conclude that OSL dating is a powerful chronological tool in studies of coastal change....
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mok Tik
2014-06-01
Full Text Available This study formulates regression of vector data that will enable statistical analysis of various geodetic phenomena such as, polar motion, ocean currents, typhoon/hurricane tracking, crustal deformations, and precursory earthquake signals. The observed vector variable of an event (dependent vector variable is expressed as a function of a number of hypothesized phenomena realized also as vector variables (independent vector variables and/or scalar variables that are likely to impact the dependent vector variable. The proposed representation has the unique property of solving the coefficients of independent vector variables (explanatory variables also as vectors, hence it supersedes multivariate multiple regression models, in which the unknown coefficients are scalar quantities. For the solution, complex numbers are used to rep- resent vector information, and the method of least squares is deployed to estimate the vector model parameters after transforming the complex vector regression model into a real vector regression model through isomorphism. Various operational statistics for testing the predictive significance of the estimated vector parameter coefficients are also derived. A simple numerical example demonstrates the use of the proposed vector regression analysis in modeling typhoon paths.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Ozenne, Brice; Sørensen, Anne Lyngholm; Scheike, Thomas
2017-01-01
In the presence of competing risks a prediction of the time-dynamic absolute risk of an event can be based on cause-specific Cox regression models for the event and the competing risks (Benichou and Gail, 1990). We present computationally fast and memory optimized C++ functions with an R interface...... for predicting the covariate specific absolute risks, their confidence intervals, and their confidence bands based on right censored time to event data. We provide explicit formulas for our implementation of the estimator of the (stratified) baseline hazard function in the presence of tied event times. As a by...... functionals. The software presented here is implemented in the riskRegression package....
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kadko, D.; Tatsumoto, Mitsunobu
1985-01-01
The 210 Pb/Pb ratios across two sulfide samples dredged from the Juan de Fuca Ridge are used to estimate the growth rate of the sulfide material and the residence time of the hydrothermal fluid within the oceanic crust from the onset of basalt alteration. 210 Pb is added to the hydrothermal fluid by two processes: 1) high-temperature alteration of basalt and 2) if the residence time of the fluid is on the order of the 22.3-year half-life of 210 Pb, by in-situ growth from 222 Rn (Krishnaswami and Turekian, 1982). Stable lead is derived only from the alteration of basalt. The 210 Pb/Pb ratio across one sample was proportional 0.5 dpm/10 -6 g Pb, and across the other is was proportional 0.4 dpm/10 -6 g Pb. These values are quite close to the 238 U/Pb ratios of basalts from the area, suggesting that the residence time of the hydrothermal fluid from the onset of basalt alteration is appreciably less than the mean life of 210 Pb, i.e., the time required for ingrowth from the radon. An apparent growth rate of 1.2 cm/yr is derived from the slope of the 210 Pb/Pb curve for one of the samples. This is consistent with its mineralogy and texture which suggest an accretionary pattern of development. There is no obvious sequential growth pattern, and virtually no gradient in 210 Pb/Pb across the second sample. This is consistent with alteration of the original 210 Pb/Pb distribution by extensive remobilization reactions which are inferred from the mineralogic and textural relationships of the sample. (orig.)
Estimation of Anti-HIV Activity of HEPT Analogues Using MLR, ANN, and SVM Techniques
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Basheerulla Shaik
2013-01-01
value than those of MLR and SVM techniques. Rm2= metrics and ridge regression analysis indicated that the proposed four-variable model MATS5e, RDF080u, T(O⋯O, and MATS5m as correlating descriptors is the best for estimating the anti-HIV activity (log 1/C present set of compounds.
Beelen, R.M.J.; Voogt, M.; Duyzer, J.; Zandveld, P.; Hoek, G.
2010-01-01
The performance of a Land Use Regression (LUR) model and a dispersion model (URBIS - URBis Information System) was compared in a Dutch urban area. For the Rijnmond area, i.e. Rotterdam and surroundings, nitrogen dioxide (NO2) concentrations for 2001 were estimated for nearly 70 000 centroids of a
Lee, Michael T.; Asquith, William H.; Oden, Timothy D.
2012-01-01
In December 2005, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the City of Houston, Texas, began collecting discrete water-quality samples for nutrients, total organic carbon, bacteria (Escherichia coli and total coliform), atrazine, and suspended sediment at two USGS streamflow-gaging stations that represent watersheds contributing to Lake Houston (08068500 Spring Creek near Spring, Tex., and 08070200 East Fork San Jacinto River near New Caney, Tex.). Data from the discrete water-quality samples collected during 2005–9, in conjunction with continuously monitored real-time data that included streamflow and other physical water-quality properties (specific conductance, pH, water temperature, turbidity, and dissolved oxygen), were used to develop regression models for the estimation of concentrations of water-quality constituents of substantial source watersheds to Lake Houston. The potential explanatory variables included discharge (streamflow), specific conductance, pH, water temperature, turbidity, dissolved oxygen, and time (to account for seasonal variations inherent in some water-quality data). The response variables (the selected constituents) at each site were nitrite plus nitrate nitrogen, total phosphorus, total organic carbon, E. coli, atrazine, and suspended sediment. The explanatory variables provide easily measured quantities to serve as potential surrogate variables to estimate concentrations of the selected constituents through statistical regression. Statistical regression also facilitates accompanying estimates of uncertainty in the form of prediction intervals. Each regression model potentially can be used to estimate concentrations of a given constituent in real time. Among other regression diagnostics, the diagnostics used as indicators of general model reliability and reported herein include the adjusted R-squared, the residual standard error, residual plots, and p-values. Adjusted R-squared values for the Spring Creek models ranged
Polynomial regression analysis and significance test of the regression function
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gao Zhengming; Zhao Juan; He Shengping
2012-01-01
In order to analyze the decay heating power of a certain radioactive isotope per kilogram with polynomial regression method, the paper firstly demonstrated the broad usage of polynomial function and deduced its parameters with ordinary least squares estimate. Then significance test method of polynomial regression function is derived considering the similarity between the polynomial regression model and the multivariable linear regression model. Finally, polynomial regression analysis and significance test of the polynomial function are done to the decay heating power of the iso tope per kilogram in accord with the authors' real work. (authors)
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Marek Vochozka
2017-12-01
Full Text Available Purpose of the article: Palladium is presently used for producing electronics, industrial products or jewellery, as well as products in the medical field. Its value is raised especially by its unique physical and chemical characteristics. Predicting the value of such a metal is not an easy matter (with regard to the fact that prices may change significantly in time. Methodology/methods: To carry out the analysis, London Fix Price PM data was used, i.e. amounts reported in the afternoon for a period longer than 10 years. To process the data, Statistica software is used. Linear regression is carried out using a whole range of functions, and subsequently regression via neural structures is performed, where several distributional functions are used again. Subsequently, 1000 neural networks are generated, out of which 5 proving the best characteristics are chosen. Scientific aim: The aim of the paper is to perform a regression analysis of the development of the palladium price on the New York Stock Exchange using neural structures and linear regression, then to compare the two methods and determine the more suitable one for a possible prediction of the future development of the palladium price on the New York Stock Exchange. Findings: Results are compared on the level of an expert perspective and the evaluator’s – economist’s experience. Within regression time lines, the curve obtained by the least squares methods via negative-exponential smoothing gets closest to Palladium price line development. Out of the neural networks, all 5 chosen networks prove to be the most practically useful. Conclusions: Because it is not possible to predict extraordinary situations and their impact on the palladium price (at most in the short term, but certainly not over a long period of time, simplification and the creation of a relatively simple model is appropriate and the result is useful.
A Seemingly Unrelated Poisson Regression Model
King, Gary
1989-01-01
This article introduces a new estimator for the analysis of two contemporaneously correlated endogenous event count variables. This seemingly unrelated Poisson regression model (SUPREME) estimator combines the efficiencies created by single equation Poisson regression model estimators and insights from "seemingly unrelated" linear regression models.
Granato, Gregory E.
2006-01-01
The Kendall-Theil Robust Line software (KTRLine-version 1.0) is a Visual Basic program that may be used with the Microsoft Windows operating system to calculate parameters for robust, nonparametric estimates of linear-regression coefficients between two continuous variables. The KTRLine software was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Federal Highway Administration, for use in stochastic data modeling with local, regional, and national hydrologic data sets to develop planning-level estimates of potential effects of highway runoff on the quality of receiving waters. The Kendall-Theil robust line was selected because this robust nonparametric method is resistant to the effects of outliers and nonnormality in residuals that commonly characterize hydrologic data sets. The slope of the line is calculated as the median of all possible pairwise slopes between points. The intercept is calculated so that the line will run through the median of input data. A single-line model or a multisegment model may be specified. The program was developed to provide regression equations with an error component for stochastic data generation because nonparametric multisegment regression tools are not available with the software that is commonly used to develop regression models. The Kendall-Theil robust line is a median line and, therefore, may underestimate total mass, volume, or loads unless the error component or a bias correction factor is incorporated into the estimate. Regression statistics such as the median error, the median absolute deviation, the prediction error sum of squares, the root mean square error, the confidence interval for the slope, and the bias correction factor for median estimates are calculated by use of nonparametric methods. These statistics, however, may be used to formulate estimates of mass, volume, or total loads. The program is used to read a two- or three-column tab-delimited input file with variable names in the first row and
Thevissen, P. W.; FIEUWS, Steffen; Willems, G.
2010-01-01
Dental age estimation methods based on the radiologically detected third molar developmental stages are implemented in forensic age assessments to discriminate between juveniles and adults considering the judgment of young unaccompanied asylum seekers. Accurate and unbiased age estimates combined with appropriate quantified uncertainties are the required properties for accurate forensic reporting. In this study, a subset of 910 individuals uniformly distributed in age between 16 and 22 years ...
Measuring mandibular ridge reduction
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Steen, W.H.A.
1984-01-01
This thesis investigates the mandibular reduction in height of complete denture wearers and overdenture wearers. To follow this reduction in the anterior region as well as in the lateral sections of the mandible, an accurate and reproducible measuring method is a prerequisite. A radiologic technique offers the best chance. A survey is given of the literature concerning the resorption process after the extraction of teeth. An oblique cephalometric radiographic technique is introduced as a promising method to measure mandibular ridge reduction. The reproducibility and the accuracy of the technique are determined. The reproducibility in the positioning of the mandible is improved by the introduction of a mandibular support which permits a precise repositioning of the edentulous jaw, even after long periods of investigation. (Auth.)
Linear regression in astronomy. I
Isobe, Takashi; Feigelson, Eric D.; Akritas, Michael G.; Babu, Gutti Jogesh
1990-01-01
Five methods for obtaining linear regression fits to bivariate data with unknown or insignificant measurement errors are discussed: ordinary least-squares (OLS) regression of Y on X, OLS regression of X on Y, the bisector of the two OLS lines, orthogonal regression, and 'reduced major-axis' regression. These methods have been used by various researchers in observational astronomy, most importantly in cosmic distance scale applications. Formulas for calculating the slope and intercept coefficients and their uncertainties are given for all the methods, including a new general form of the OLS variance estimates. The accuracy of the formulas was confirmed using numerical simulations. The applicability of the procedures is discussed with respect to their mathematical properties, the nature of the astronomical data under consideration, and the scientific purpose of the regression. It is found that, for problems needing symmetrical treatment of the variables, the OLS bisector performs significantly better than orthogonal or reduced major-axis regression.
Ramoelo, A.; Skidmore, A.K.; Cho, M.A.; Mathieu, R.; Heitkonig, I.M.A.; Dudeni-Tlhone, N.; Schlerf, M.; Prins, H.H.T.
2013-01-01
Grass nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) concentrations are direct indicators of rangeland quality and provide imperative information for sound management of wildlife and livestock. It is challenging to estimate grass N and P concentrations using remote sensing in the savanna ecosystems. These areas
CSIR Research Space (South Africa)
Ramoelo, Abel
2013-06-01
Full Text Available in situ hyperspectral and environmental variables yielded the highest grass N and P estimation accuracy (R2 = 0.81, root mean square error (RMSE) = 0.08, and R2 = 0.80, RMSE = 0.03, respectively) as compared to using remote sensing variables only...
Nonparametric Mixture of Regression Models.
Huang, Mian; Li, Runze; Wang, Shaoli
2013-07-01
Motivated by an analysis of US house price index data, we propose nonparametric finite mixture of regression models. We study the identifiability issue of the proposed models, and develop an estimation procedure by employing kernel regression. We further systematically study the sampling properties of the proposed estimators, and establish their asymptotic normality. A modified EM algorithm is proposed to carry out the estimation procedure. We show that our algorithm preserves the ascent property of the EM algorithm in an asymptotic sense. Monte Carlo simulations are conducted to examine the finite sample performance of the proposed estimation procedure. An empirical analysis of the US house price index data is illustrated for the proposed methodology.
Bayesian ARTMAP for regression.
Sasu, L M; Andonie, R
2013-10-01
Bayesian ARTMAP (BA) is a recently introduced neural architecture which uses a combination of Fuzzy ARTMAP competitive learning and Bayesian learning. Training is generally performed online, in a single-epoch. During training, BA creates input data clusters as Gaussian categories, and also infers the conditional probabilities between input patterns and categories, and between categories and classes. During prediction, BA uses Bayesian posterior probability estimation. So far, BA was used only for classification. The goal of this paper is to analyze the efficiency of BA for regression problems. Our contributions are: (i) we generalize the BA algorithm using the clustering functionality of both ART modules, and name it BA for Regression (BAR); (ii) we prove that BAR is a universal approximator with the best approximation property. In other words, BAR approximates arbitrarily well any continuous function (universal approximation) and, for every given continuous function, there is one in the set of BAR approximators situated at minimum distance (best approximation); (iii) we experimentally compare the online trained BAR with several neural models, on the following standard regression benchmarks: CPU Computer Hardware, Boston Housing, Wisconsin Breast Cancer, and Communities and Crime. Our results show that BAR is an appropriate tool for regression tasks, both for theoretical and practical reasons. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Pałgan, Dominik; Devey, Colin W.; Yeo, Isobel A.
2017-12-01
Current estimates indicate that the number of high-temperature vents (one of the primary pathways for the heat extraction from the Earth's mantle) - at least 1 per 100 km of axial length - scales with spreading rate and should scale with crustal thickness. But up to present, shallow ridge axes underlain by thick crust show anomalously low incidences of high-temperature activity. Here we compare the Reykjanes Ridge, an abnormally shallow ridge with thick crust and only one high-temperature vent known over 900 km axial length, to the adjacent subaerial Reykjanes Peninsula (RP), which is characterized by high-temperature geothermal sites confined to four volcanic systems transected by fissure swarms with young (Holocene) volcanic activity, multiple faults, cracks and fissures, and continuous seismic activity. New high-resolution bathymetry (gridded at 60 m) of the Reykjanes Ridge between 62°30‧N and 63°30‧N shows seven Axial Volcanic Ridges (AVR) that, based on their morphology, geometry and tectonic regime, are analogues for the volcanic systems and fissure swarms on land. We investigate in detail the volcano-tectonic features of all mapped AVRs and show that they do not fit with the previously suggested 4-stage evolution model for AVR construction. Instead, we suggest that AVR morphology reflects the robust or weak melt supply to the system and two (or more) eruption mechanisms may co-exist on one AVR (in contrast to 4-stage evolution model). Our interpretations indicate that, unlike on the Reykjanes Peninsula, faults on and around AVRs do not cluster in orientation domains but all are subparallel to the overall strike of AVRs (orthogonal to spreading direction). High abundance of seamounts shows that the region centered at 62°47‧N and 25°04‧W (between AVR-5 and -6) is volcanically robust while the highest fault density implies that AVR-1 and southern part of AVR-6 rather undergo period of melt starvation. Based on our observations and interpretations we
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Hossein Mojaddadi Rizeei
2018-01-01
Full Text Available The current study proposes a new method for oil palm age estimation and counting. A support vector machine algorithm (SVM of object-based image analysis (OBIA was implemented for oil palm counting. It was integrated with height model and multiregression methods to accurately estimate the age of trees based on their heights in five different plantation blocks. Multiregression and multi-kernel size models were examined over five different oil palm plantation blocks to achieve the most optimized model for age estimation. The sensitivity analysis was conducted on four SVM kernel types (sigmoid (SIG, linear (LN, radial basis function (RBF, and polynomial (PL with associated parameters (threshold values, gamma γ, and penalty factor (c to obtain the optimal OBIA classification approaches for each plantation block. Very high-resolution imageries of WorldView-3 (WV-3 and light detection and range (LiDAR were used for oil palm detection and age assessment. The results of oil palm detection had an overall accuracy of 98.27%, 99.48%, 99.28%, 99.49%, and 97.49% for blocks A, B, C, D, and E, respectively. Moreover, the accuracy of age estimation analysis showed 90.1% for 3-year-old, 87.9% for 4-year-old, 88.0% for 6-year-old, 87.6% for 8-year-old, 79.1% for 9-year-old, and 76.8% for 22-year-old trees. Overall, the study revealed that remote sensing techniques can be useful to monitor and detect oil palm plantation for sustainable agricultural management.
Subset selection in regression
Miller, Alan
2002-01-01
Originally published in 1990, the first edition of Subset Selection in Regression filled a significant gap in the literature, and its critical and popular success has continued for more than a decade. Thoroughly revised to reflect progress in theory, methods, and computing power, the second edition promises to continue that tradition. The author has thoroughly updated each chapter, incorporated new material on recent developments, and included more examples and references. New in the Second Edition:A separate chapter on Bayesian methodsComplete revision of the chapter on estimationA major example from the field of near infrared spectroscopyMore emphasis on cross-validationGreater focus on bootstrappingStochastic algorithms for finding good subsets from large numbers of predictors when an exhaustive search is not feasible Software available on the Internet for implementing many of the algorithms presentedMore examplesSubset Selection in Regression, Second Edition remains dedicated to the techniques for fitting...
Oak Ridge Health Studies phase 1 report, Volume 1: Oak Ridge Phase 1 overview
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Yarbrough, M.I.; Van Cleave, M.L.; Turri, P.; Daniel, J.
1993-09-01
In July 1991, the State of Tennessee initiated the Health Studies Agreement with the United States Department of Energy to carry out independent studies of possible adverse health effects in people living in the vicinity of the Oak Ridge Reservation. The health studies focus on those effects that could have resulted or could result from exposures to chemicals and radioactivity released at the Reservation since 1942. The major focus of the first phase was to complete a Dose Reconstruction Feasibility Study. This study was designed to find out if enough data exist about chemical and radionuclide releases from the Oak Ridge Reservation to conduct a second phase. The second phase will lead to estimates of the actual amounts or the ``doses`` of various contaminants received by people as a result of off-site releases. Once the doses of various contaminants have been estimated, scientists and physicians will be better able to evaluate whether adverse health effects could have resulted from the releases.
Oak Ridge Health Studies phase 1 report, Volume 1: Oak Ridge Phase 1 overview
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Yarbrough, M.I.; Van Cleave, M.L.; Turri, P.; Daniel, J.
1993-09-01
In July 1991, the State of Tennessee initiated the Health Studies Agreement with the United States Department of Energy to carry out independent studies of possible adverse health effects in people living in the vicinity of the Oak Ridge Reservation. The health studies focus on those effects that could have resulted or could result from exposures to chemicals and radioactivity released at the Reservation since 1942. The major focus of the first phase was to complete a Dose Reconstruction Feasibility Study. This study was designed to find out if enough data exist about chemical and radionuclide releases from the Oak Ridge Reservation to conduct a second phase. The second phase will lead to estimates of the actual amounts or the ''doses'' of various contaminants received by people as a result of off-site releases. Once the doses of various contaminants have been estimated, scientists and physicians will be better able to evaluate whether adverse health effects could have resulted from the releases
Langmuir, C. H.
2014-12-01
The history of oxygen and the fluxes and feedbacks that lead to its evolution through time remain poorly constrained. It is not clear whether oxygen has had discrete steady state levels at different times in Earth's history, or whether oxygen evolution is more progressive, with trigger points that lead to discrete changes in markers such as mass independent sulfur isotopes. Whatever this history may have been, ocean ridges play an important and poorly recognized part in the overall mass balance of oxidants and reductants that contribute to electron mass balance and the oxygen budget. One example is the current steady state O2 in the atmosphere. The carbon isotope data suggest that the fraction of carbon has increased in the Phanerozoic, and CO2 outgassing followed by organic matter burial should continually supply more O2 to the surface reservoirs. Why is O2 not then increasing? A traditional answer to this question would relate to variations in the fraction of burial of organic matter, but this fraction appears to have been relatively high throughout the Phanerozoic. Furthermore, subduction of carbon in the 1/5 organic/carbonate proportions would contribute further to an increasingly oxidized surface. What is needed is a flux of oxidized material out of the system. One solution would be a modern oxidized flux to the mantle. The current outgassing flux of CO2 is ~3.4*1012 moles per year. If 20% of that becomes stored organic carbon, that is a flux of .68*1012 moles per year of reduced carbon. The current flux of oxidized iron in subducting ocean crust is ~2*1012 moles per year of O2 equivalents, based on the Fe3+/Fe2+ ratios in old ocean crust compared to fresh basalts at the ridge axis. This flux more than accounts for the incremental oxidizing power produced by modern life. It also suggests a possible feedback through oxygenation of the ocean. A reduced deep ocean would inhibit oxidation of ocean crust, in which case there would be no subduction flux of oxidized
Differentiating regressed melanoma from regressed lichenoid keratosis.
Chan, Aegean H; Shulman, Kenneth J; Lee, Bonnie A
2017-04-01
Distinguishing regressed lichen planus-like keratosis (LPLK) from regressed melanoma can be difficult on histopathologic examination, potentially resulting in mismanagement of patients. We aimed to identify histopathologic features by which regressed melanoma can be differentiated from regressed LPLK. Twenty actively inflamed LPLK, 12 LPLK with regression and 15 melanomas with regression were compared and evaluated by hematoxylin and eosin staining as well as Melan-A, microphthalmia transcription factor (MiTF) and cytokeratin (AE1/AE3) immunostaining. (1) A total of 40% of regressed melanomas showed complete or near complete loss of melanocytes within the epidermis with Melan-A and MiTF immunostaining, while 8% of regressed LPLK exhibited this finding. (2) Necrotic keratinocytes were seen in the epidermis in 33% regressed melanomas as opposed to all of the regressed LPLK. (3) A dense infiltrate of melanophages in the papillary dermis was seen in 40% of regressed melanomas, a feature not seen in regressed LPLK. In summary, our findings suggest that a complete or near complete loss of melanocytes within the epidermis strongly favors a regressed melanoma over a regressed LPLK. In addition, necrotic epidermal keratinocytes and the presence of a dense band-like distribution of dermal melanophages can be helpful in differentiating these lesions. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Quantile regression theory and applications
Davino, Cristina; Vistocco, Domenico
2013-01-01
A guide to the implementation and interpretation of Quantile Regression models This book explores the theory and numerous applications of quantile regression, offering empirical data analysis as well as the software tools to implement the methods. The main focus of this book is to provide the reader with a comprehensivedescription of the main issues concerning quantile regression; these include basic modeling, geometrical interpretation, estimation and inference for quantile regression, as well as issues on validity of the model, diagnostic tools. Each methodological aspect is explored and
Callén Romero, Mª Soledad; López Sebastián, José Manuel; Mastral Lamarca, Ana María
2010-01-01
The estimation of benzo(a)pyrene (BaP) concentrations in ambient air is very important from an environmental point of view especially with the introduction of the Directive 2004/107/EC and due to the carcinogenic character of this pollutant. A sampling campaign of particulate matter less or equal than 10 microns (PM10) carried out during 2008-2009 in four locations of Spain was collected to determine experimentally BaP concentrations by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry-mass spectrometry (...
Steganalysis using logistic regression
Lubenko, Ivans; Ker, Andrew D.
2011-02-01
We advocate Logistic Regression (LR) as an alternative to the Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifiers commonly used in steganalysis. LR offers more information than traditional SVM methods - it estimates class probabilities as well as providing a simple classification - and can be adapted more easily and efficiently for multiclass problems. Like SVM, LR can be kernelised for nonlinear classification, and it shows comparable classification accuracy to SVM methods. This work is a case study, comparing accuracy and speed of SVM and LR classifiers in detection of LSB Matching and other related spatial-domain image steganography, through the state-of-art 686-dimensional SPAM feature set, in three image sets.
Adaptive metric kernel regression
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Goutte, Cyril; Larsen, Jan
2000-01-01
Kernel smoothing is a widely used non-parametric pattern recognition technique. By nature, it suffers from the curse of dimensionality and is usually difficult to apply to high input dimensions. In this contribution, we propose an algorithm that adapts the input metric used in multivariate...... regression by minimising a cross-validation estimate of the generalisation error. This allows to automatically adjust the importance of different dimensions. The improvement in terms of modelling performance is illustrated on a variable selection task where the adaptive metric kernel clearly outperforms...
Adaptive Metric Kernel Regression
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Goutte, Cyril; Larsen, Jan
1998-01-01
Kernel smoothing is a widely used nonparametric pattern recognition technique. By nature, it suffers from the curse of dimensionality and is usually difficult to apply to high input dimensions. In this paper, we propose an algorithm that adapts the input metric used in multivariate regression...... by minimising a cross-validation estimate of the generalisation error. This allows one to automatically adjust the importance of different dimensions. The improvement in terms of modelling performance is illustrated on a variable selection task where the adaptive metric kernel clearly outperforms the standard...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
J. B. Liu
2016-11-01
Full Text Available Forty-eight barrows with an average initial body weight of 25.5±0.3 kg were assigned to 6 dietary treatments arranged in a 3×2 factorial of 3 graded levels of P at 1.42, 2.07, or 2.72 g/kg, and 2 levels of casein at 0 or 50 g/kg to compare the estimates of true total tract digestibility (TTTD of P in soybean meal (SBM for pigs fed diets with or without casein supplementation. The SBM is the only source of P in diets without casein, and in the diet with added casein, 1.0 to 2.4 g/kg of total dietary P was supplied by SBM as dietary level of SBM increased. The experiment consisted of a 5-d adjustment period and a 5-d total collection period with ferric oxide as a maker to indicate the initiation and termination of fecal collection. There were interactive effects of casein supplementation and total dietary P level on the apparent total tract digestibility (ATTD and retention of P (p0.05. In summary, our results demonstrate that the estimates of TTTD of P in SBM for pigs were not affected by constant casein inclusion in the basal diets.
Saputro, Dewi Retno Sari; Widyaningsih, Purnami
2017-08-01
In general, the parameter estimation of GWOLR model uses maximum likelihood method, but it constructs a system of nonlinear equations, making it difficult to find the solution. Therefore, an approximate solution is needed. There are two popular numerical methods: the methods of Newton and Quasi-Newton (QN). Newton's method requires large-scale time in executing the computation program since it contains Jacobian matrix (derivative). QN method overcomes the drawback of Newton's method by substituting derivative computation into a function of direct computation. The QN method uses Hessian matrix approach which contains Davidon-Fletcher-Powell (DFP) formula. The Broyden-Fletcher-Goldfarb-Shanno (BFGS) method is categorized as the QN method which has the DFP formula attribute of having positive definite Hessian matrix. The BFGS method requires large memory in executing the program so another algorithm to decrease memory usage is needed, namely Low Memory BFGS (LBFGS). The purpose of this research is to compute the efficiency of the LBFGS method in the iterative and recursive computation of Hessian matrix and its inverse for the GWOLR parameter estimation. In reference to the research findings, we found out that the BFGS and LBFGS methods have arithmetic operation schemes, including O(n2) and O(nm).
Messier, K. P.; Serre, M. L.
2015-12-01
Radon (222Rn) is a naturally occurring chemically inert, colorless, and odorless radioactive gas produced from the decay of uranium (238U), which is ubiquitous in rocks and soils worldwide. Exposure to 222Rn is likely the second leading cause of lung cancer after cigarette smoking via inhalation; however, exposure through untreated groundwater is also a contributing factor to both inhalation and ingestion routes. A land use regression (LUR) model for groundwater 222Rn with anisotropic geological and 238U based explanatory variables is developed, which helps elucidate the factors contributing to elevated 222Rn across North Carolina. Geological and uranium based variables are constructed in elliptical buffers surrounding each observation such that they capture the lateral geometric anisotropy present in groundwater 222Rn. Moreover, geological features are defined at three different geological spatial scales to allow the model to distinguish between large area and small area effects of geology on groundwater 222Rn. The LUR is also integrated into the Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) geostatistical framework to increase accuracy and produce a point-level LUR-BME model of groundwater 222Rn across North Carolina including prediction uncertainty. The LUR-BME model of groundwater 222Rn results in a leave-one out cross-validation of 0.46 (Pearson correlation coefficient= 0.68), effectively predicting within the spatial covariance range. Modeled results of 222Rn concentrations show variability among Intrusive Felsic geological formations likely due to average bedrock 238U defined on the basis of overlying stream-sediment 238U concentrations that is a widely distributed consistently analyzed point-source data.
The thermal structure of a wind-driven Reynolds ridge
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Phongikaroon, Supathorn; Peter Judd, K.; Smith, Geoffrey B.; Handler, Robert A. [Remote Sensing Division, Naval Research Laboratory, 20375, Washington, DC (United States)
2004-08-01
In this study, we investigate the nature of a Reynolds ridge formed by wind shear. We have simultaneously imaged the water surface, with a deposit of a monolayer of the surfactant, oleyl alcohol, subject to different wind shears, by using a high-resolution infrared (IR) detector and a high-speed (HS) digital camera. The results reveal that the regions around the wind-driven Reynolds ridge, which have subtle manifestations in visual imagery, possess surprisingly complex hydrodynamical and thermal structures when observed in the infrared. The IR measurements reveal a warm, clean region upstream of the ridge, which is composed of the so called fishscale structures observed in earlier investigations. The region downstream of the ridge is composed of colder fluid which forms two counter-rotating cells. A region of intermediate temperature, which we call the mixing (wake) region, forms immediately downstream of the ridge near the channel centerline. By measuring the velocity of the advected fishscales, we have determined a surface drift speed of about 2% of the wind speed. The spanwise length-scale of the structures has also been used to estimate the wind shear. In addition, a comparison of IR and visual imagery shows that the thermal field is a very sensitive indicator of the exact position of the ridge itself. (orig.)
Pedrini, D. T.; Pedrini, Bonnie C.
Regression, another mechanism studied by Sigmund Freud, has had much research, e.g., hypnotic regression, frustration regression, schizophrenic regression, and infra-human-animal regression (often directly related to fixation). Many investigators worked with hypnotic age regression, which has a long history, going back to Russian reflexologists.…
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mohamed Gar Alalm
2018-05-01
Full Text Available Chlorothalonil is a pesticide that can contaminate water bodies, detriment aquatic organisms, and cause cancers of the forestomach and kidney. In this study, a powdered activated carbon prepared from casuarina wood was used for the adsorption of chlorothalonil from aqueous solutions. Based on Scanning Electron microscopy and Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy analyses, the adsorbent material comprised pores and multiple functional groups that favored the entrapment of chlorothalonil onto its surface. At initial chlorothalonil concentration of 480 mg L−1, the equilibrium uptake capacity was 187 mg g−1 at pH: 7, adsorbent dosage: 0.5 g L−1, contact time: 40 min, and room temperature (25 ± 4 °C. The kinetic and isotherm studies indicated that the rate constant of pseudo-second-order model (k2 was 0.003 g mg−1 min−1, and the monolayer adsorption capacity was 192 mg g−1. Results from a quadratic model demonstrated that the plot of adsorption capacity versus pH, chlorothalonil concentration, adsorbent dosage, and contact time caused quadratic-concave, linear-up, flat, and quadratic-linear concave up curves, respectively. An artificial neural network with a structure of 4–5–1 was able to predict the adsorption capacity (R2: 0.982, and the sensitivity analysis using connection weights showed that pH was the most influential factor. An economic estimation using amortization and operating costs revealed that an adsorption unit subjected to 100 m3 d−1 containing chlorothalonil concentration of 250 ± 50 mg L−1 could cost 1.18 $ m−3. Keywords: Activated carbon, Artificial neural network, Chlorothalonil pesticide, Cost estimation, Kinetics and isotherms
Galloway, Joel M.
2014-01-01
The Red River of the North (hereafter referred to as “Red River”) Basin is an important hydrologic region where water is a valuable resource for the region’s economy. Continuous water-quality monitors have been operated by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the North Dakota Department of Health, Minnesota Pollution Control Agency, City of Fargo, City of Moorhead, City of Grand Forks, and City of East Grand Forks at the Red River at Fargo, North Dakota, from 2003 through 2012 and at Grand Forks, N.Dak., from 2007 through 2012. The purpose of the monitoring was to provide a better understanding of the water-quality dynamics of the Red River and provide a way to track changes in water quality. Regression equations were developed that can be used to estimate concentrations and loads for dissolved solids, sulfate, chloride, nitrate plus nitrite, total phosphorus, and suspended sediment using explanatory variables such as streamflow, specific conductance, and turbidity. Specific conductance was determined to be a significant explanatory variable for estimating dissolved solids concentrations at the Red River at Fargo and Grand Forks. The regression equations provided good relations between dissolved solid concentrations and specific conductance for the Red River at Fargo and at Grand Forks, with adjusted coefficients of determination of 0.99 and 0.98, respectively. Specific conductance, log-transformed streamflow, and a seasonal component were statistically significant explanatory variables for estimating sulfate in the Red River at Fargo and Grand Forks. Regression equations provided good relations between sulfate concentrations and the explanatory variables, with adjusted coefficients of determination of 0.94 and 0.89, respectively. For the Red River at Fargo and Grand Forks, specific conductance, streamflow, and a seasonal component were statistically significant explanatory variables for estimating chloride. For the Red River at Grand Forks, a time
Miller, Arthur L; Weakley, Andrew Todd; Griffiths, Peter R; Cauda, Emanuele G; Bayman, Sean
2017-05-01
In order to help reduce silicosis in miners, the National Institute for Occupational Health and Safety (NIOSH) is developing field-portable methods for measuring airborne respirable crystalline silica (RCS), specifically the polymorph α-quartz, in mine dusts. In this study we demonstrate the feasibility of end-of-shift measurement of α-quartz using a direct-on-filter (DoF) method to analyze coal mine dust samples deposited onto polyvinyl chloride filters. The DoF method is potentially amenable for on-site analyses, but deviates from the current regulatory determination of RCS for coal mines by eliminating two sample preparation steps: ashing the sampling filter and redepositing the ash prior to quantification by Fourier transform infrared (FT-IR) spectrometry. In this study, the FT-IR spectra of 66 coal dust samples from active mines were used, and the RCS was quantified by using: (1) an ordinary least squares (OLS) calibration approach that utilizes standard silica material as done in the Mine Safety and Health Administration's P7 method; and (2) a partial least squares (PLS) regression approach. Both were capable of accounting for kaolinite, which can confound the IR analysis of silica. The OLS method utilized analytical standards for silica calibration and kaolin correction, resulting in a good linear correlation with P7 results and minimal bias but with the accuracy limited by the presence of kaolinite. The PLS approach also produced predictions well-correlated to the P7 method, as well as better accuracy in RCS prediction, and no bias due to variable kaolinite mass. Besides decreased sensitivity to mineral or substrate confounders, PLS has the advantage that the analyst is not required to correct for the presence of kaolinite or background interferences related to the substrate, making the method potentially viable for automated RCS prediction in the field. This study demonstrated the efficacy of FT-IR transmission spectrometry for silica determination in
A regression approach for Zircaloy-2 in-reactor creep constitutive equations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Yung Liu, Y.; Bement, A.L.
1977-01-01
In this paper the methodology of multiple regressions as applied to Zircaloy-2 in-reactor creep data analysis and construction of constitutive equation are illustrated. While the resulting constitutive equation can be used in creep analysis of in-reactor Zircaloy structural components, the methodology itself is entirely general and can be applied to any creep data analysis. The promising aspects of multiple regression creep data analysis are briefly outlined as follows: (1) When there are more than one variable involved, there is no need to make the assumption that each variable affects the response independently. No separate normalizations are required either and the estimation of parameters is obtained by solving many simultaneous equations. The number of simultaneous equations is equal to the number of data sets. (2) Regression statistics such as R 2 - and F-statistics provide measures of the significance of regression creep equation in correlating the overall data. The relative weights of each variable on the response can also be obtained. (3) Special regression techniques such as step-wise, ridge, and robust regressions and residual plots, etc., provide diagnostic tools for model selections. Multiple regression analysis performed on a set of carefully selected Zircaloy-2 in-reactor creep data leads to a model which provides excellent correlations for the data. (Auth.)
Tong, Xuming; Chen, Jinghang; Miao, Hongyu; Li, Tingting; Zhang, Le
2015-01-01
Agent-based models (ABM) and differential equations (DE) are two commonly used methods for immune system simulation. However, it is difficult for ABM to estimate key parameters of the model by incorporating experimental data, whereas the differential equation model is incapable of describing the complicated immune system in detail. To overcome these problems, we developed an integrated ABM regression model (IABMR). It can combine the advantages of ABM and DE by employing ABM to mimic the multi-scale immune system with various phenotypes and types of cells as well as using the input and output of ABM to build up the Loess regression for key parameter estimation. Next, we employed the greedy algorithm to estimate the key parameters of the ABM with respect to the same experimental data set and used ABM to describe a 3D immune system similar to previous studies that employed the DE model. These results indicate that IABMR not only has the potential to simulate the immune system at various scales, phenotypes and cell types, but can also accurately infer the key parameters like DE model. Therefore, this study innovatively developed a complex system development mechanism that could simulate the complicated immune system in detail like ABM and validate the reliability and efficiency of model like DE by fitting the experimental data. PMID:26535589
ESTIMATION ACCURACY OF EXPONENTIAL DISTRIBUTION PARAMETERS
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
muhammad zahid rashid
2011-04-01
Full Text Available The exponential distribution is commonly used to model the behavior of units that have a constant failure rate. The two-parameter exponential distribution provides a simple but nevertheless useful model for the analysis of lifetimes, especially when investigating reliability of technical equipment.This paper is concerned with estimation of parameters of the two parameter (location and scale exponential distribution. We used the least squares method (LSM, relative least squares method (RELS, ridge regression method (RR, moment estimators (ME, modified moment estimators (MME, maximum likelihood estimators (MLE and modified maximum likelihood estimators (MMLE. We used the mean square error MSE, and total deviation TD, as measurement for the comparison between these methods. We determined the best method for estimation using different values for the parameters and different sample sizes
Unbalanced Regressions and the Predictive Equation
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Osterrieder, Daniela; Ventosa-Santaulària, Daniel; Vera-Valdés, J. Eduardo
Predictive return regressions with persistent regressors are typically plagued by (asymptotically) biased/inconsistent estimates of the slope, non-standard or potentially even spurious statistical inference, and regression unbalancedness. We alleviate the problem of unbalancedness in the theoreti......Predictive return regressions with persistent regressors are typically plagued by (asymptotically) biased/inconsistent estimates of the slope, non-standard or potentially even spurious statistical inference, and regression unbalancedness. We alleviate the problem of unbalancedness...
From Rasch scores to regression
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Christensen, Karl Bang
2006-01-01
Rasch models provide a framework for measurement and modelling latent variables. Having measured a latent variable in a population a comparison of groups will often be of interest. For this purpose the use of observed raw scores will often be inadequate because these lack interval scale propertie....... This paper compares two approaches to group comparison: linear regression models using estimated person locations as outcome variables and latent regression models based on the distribution of the score....
Roso, V M; Schenkel, F S; Miller, S P; Schaeffer, L R
2005-08-01
Breed additive, dominance, and epistatic loss effects are of concern in the genetic evaluation of a multibreed population. Multiple regression equations used for fitting these effects may show a high degree of multicollinearity among predictor variables. Typically, when strong linear relationships exist, the regression coefficients have large SE and are sensitive to changes in the data file and to the addition or deletion of variables in the model. Generalized ridge regression methods were applied to obtain stable estimates of direct and maternal breed additive, dominance, and epistatic loss effects in the presence of multicollinearity among predictor variables. Preweaning weight gains of beef calves in Ontario, Canada, from 1986 to 1999 were analyzed. The genetic model included fixed direct and maternal breed additive, dominance, and epistatic loss effects, fixed environmental effects of age of the calf, contemporary group, and age of the dam x sex of the calf, random additive direct and maternal genetic effects, and random maternal permanent environment effect. The degree and the nature of the multicollinearity were identified and ridge regression methods were used as an alternative to ordinary least squares (LS). Ridge parameters were obtained using two different objective methods: 1) generalized ridge estimator of Hoerl and Kennard (R1); and 2) bootstrap in combination with cross-validation (R2). Both ridge regression methods outperformed the LS estimator with respect to mean squared error of predictions (MSEP) and variance inflation factors (VIF) computed over 100 bootstrap samples. The MSEP of R1 and R2 were similar, and they were 3% less than the MSEP of LS. The average VIF of LS, R1, and R2 were equal to 26.81, 6.10, and 4.18, respectively. Ridge regression methods were particularly effective in decreasing the multicollinearity involving predictor variables of breed additive effects. Because of a high degree of confounding between estimates of maternal
Fridman, M; Hodgkins, P S; Kahle, J S; Erder, M H
2015-06-01
There are few approved therapies for adults with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) in Europe. Lisdexamfetamine (LDX) is an effective treatment for ADHD; however, no clinical trials examining the efficacy of LDX specifically in European adults have been conducted. Therefore, to estimate the efficacy of LDX in European adults we performed a meta-regression of existing clinical data. A systematic review identified US- and Europe-based randomized efficacy trials of LDX, atomoxetine (ATX), or osmotic-release oral system methylphenidate (OROS-MPH) in children/adolescents and adults. A meta-regression model was then fitted to the published/calculated effect sizes (Cohen's d) using medication, geographical location, and age group as predictors. The LDX effect size in European adults was extrapolated from the fitted model. Sensitivity analyses performed included using adult-only studies and adding studies with placebo designs other than a standard pill-placebo design. Twenty-two of 2832 identified articles met inclusion criteria. The model-estimated effect size of LDX for European adults was 1.070 (95% confidence interval: 0.738, 1.401), larger than the 0.8 threshold for large effect sizes. The overall model fit was adequate (80%) and stable in the sensitivity analyses. This model predicts that LDX may have a large treatment effect size in European adults with ADHD. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.
A Comparison of Advanced Regression Algorithms for Quantifying Urban Land Cover
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Akpona Okujeni
2014-07-01
Full Text Available Quantitative methods for mapping sub-pixel land cover fractions are gaining increasing attention, particularly with regard to upcoming hyperspectral satellite missions. We evaluated five advanced regression algorithms combined with synthetically mixed training data for quantifying urban land cover from HyMap data at 3.6 and 9 m spatial resolution. Methods included support vector regression (SVR, kernel ridge regression (KRR, artificial neural networks (NN, random forest regression (RFR and partial least squares regression (PLSR. Our experiments demonstrate that both kernel methods SVR and KRR yield high accuracies for mapping complex urban surface types, i.e., rooftops, pavements, grass- and tree-covered areas. SVR and KRR models proved to be stable with regard to the spatial and spectral differences between both images and effectively utilized the higher complexity of the synthetic training mixtures for improving estimates for coarser resolution data. Observed deficiencies mainly relate to known problems arising from spectral similarities or shadowing. The remaining regressors either revealed erratic (NN or limited (RFR and PLSR performances when comprehensively mapping urban land cover. Our findings suggest that the combination of kernel-based regression methods, such as SVR and KRR, with synthetically mixed training data is well suited for quantifying urban land cover from imaging spectrometer data at multiple scales.
Extraction of lead and ridge characteristics from SAR images of sea ice
Vesecky, John F.; Smith, Martha P.; Samadani, Ramin
1990-01-01
Image-processing techniques for extracting the characteristics of lead and pressure ridge features in SAR images of sea ice are reported. The methods are applied to a SAR image of the Beaufort Sea collected from the Seasat satellite on October 3, 1978. Estimates of lead and ridge statistics are made, e.g., lead and ridge density (number of lead or ridge pixels per unit area of image) and the distribution of lead area and orientation as well as ridge length and orientation. The information derived is useful in both ice science and polar operations for such applications as albedo and heat and momentum transfer estimates, as well as ship routing and offshore engineering.
Polylinear regression analysis in radiochemistry
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kopyrin, A.A.; Terent'eva, T.N.; Khramov, N.N.
1995-01-01
A number of radiochemical problems have been formulated in the framework of polylinear regression analysis, which permits the use of conventional mathematical methods for their solution. The authors have considered features of the use of polylinear regression analysis for estimating the contributions of various sources to the atmospheric pollution, for studying irradiated nuclear fuel, for estimating concentrations from spectral data, for measuring neutron fields of a nuclear reactor, for estimating crystal lattice parameters from X-ray diffraction patterns, for interpreting data of X-ray fluorescence analysis, for estimating complex formation constants, and for analyzing results of radiometric measurements. The problem of estimating the target parameters can be incorrect at certain properties of the system under study. The authors showed the possibility of regularization by adding a fictitious set of data open-quotes obtainedclose quotes from the orthogonal design. To estimate only a part of the parameters under consideration, the authors used incomplete rank models. In this case, it is necessary to take into account the possibility of confounding estimates. An algorithm for evaluating the degree of confounding is presented which is realized using standard software or regression analysis
Linear Regression Models for Estimating True Subsurface ...
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
47
The objective is to minimize the processing time and computer memory required. 10 to carry out inversion .... to the mainland by two long bridges. .... term. In this approach, the model converges when the squared sum of the differences. 143.
Contaminated scrap metal management on the Oak Ridge Reservation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hayden, H.W.; Stephenson, M.J.; Bailey, J.K.; Weir, J.R.; Gilbert, W.C.
1993-01-01
Large quantities of scrap metal are accumulating at the various Department of Energy (DOE) installations across the country as a result of ongoing DOE programs and missions in concert with present day waste management practices. DOE Oak Ridge alone is presently storing around 500,000 tons of scrap metal. The local generation rate, currently estimated at 1,400 tons/yr, is expected to increase sharply over the next couple of years as numerous environmental restoration and decommissioning programs gain momentum. Projections show that 775,000 tons of scrap metal could be generated at the K-25 Site over the next ten years. The Y-12 Plant and Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) have similar potentials. The history of scrap metal management at Oak Ridge and future challenges and opportunities are discussed
Regression to Causality : Regression-style presentation influences causal attribution
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Bordacconi, Mats Joe; Larsen, Martin Vinæs
2014-01-01
of equivalent results presented as either regression models or as a test of two sample means. Our experiment shows that the subjects who were presented with results as estimates from a regression model were more inclined to interpret these results causally. Our experiment implies that scholars using regression...... models – one of the primary vehicles for analyzing statistical results in political science – encourage causal interpretation. Specifically, we demonstrate that presenting observational results in a regression model, rather than as a simple comparison of means, makes causal interpretation of the results...... more likely. Our experiment drew on a sample of 235 university students from three different social science degree programs (political science, sociology and economics), all of whom had received substantial training in statistics. The subjects were asked to compare and evaluate the validity...
Quantile Regression With Measurement Error
Wei, Ying
2009-08-27
Regression quantiles can be substantially biased when the covariates are measured with error. In this paper we propose a new method that produces consistent linear quantile estimation in the presence of covariate measurement error. The method corrects the measurement error induced bias by constructing joint estimating equations that simultaneously hold for all the quantile levels. An iterative EM-type estimation algorithm to obtain the solutions to such joint estimation equations is provided. The finite sample performance of the proposed method is investigated in a simulation study, and compared to the standard regression calibration approach. Finally, we apply our methodology to part of the National Collaborative Perinatal Project growth data, a longitudinal study with an unusual measurement error structure. © 2009 American Statistical Association.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Lawan Hassan Adamu
2017-01-01
Full Text Available The fingerprints and face recognition are two biometric processes that comprise methods for uniquely recognizing humans based on certain number of intrinsic physical or behavioral traits. The objectives of the study were to predict the facial height (FH, facial width, and ratios from thumbprints ridge count and its possible applications. This was a cross-sectional study. A total of 457 participants were recruited. A fingerprint live scanner was used to capture the plain thumbprint. The facial photograph was captured using a digital camera. Pearson's correlation analysis was used for the relationship between thumbprint ridge density and facial linear dimensions. Step-wise linear multiple regression analysis was used to predict facial distances from thumbprint ridge density. The result showed that in males the right ulnar ridge count correlates negatively with lower facial width (LFW, upper facial width/upper FH (UFW/UFH, lower FH/FH (LFH/FH, and positively with UFH and UFW/LFW. The right and left proximal ridge counts correlate with LFW and UFH, respectively. In males, the right ulnar ridge count predicts LFW, UFW/LFW, UFW/UFH, and LFH/FH. Special upper face height I, LFW, height of lower third of the face, UFW/LFW was predicted by right radial ridge counts. LFH, height of lower third of the face, and LFH/FH were predicted from left ulnar ridge count whereas left proximal ridge count predicted LFW. In females only, the special upper face height I was predicted by right ulnar ridge count. In conclusion, thumbprint ridge counts can be used to predict FH, width, ratios among Hausa population. The possible application of fingerprints in facial characterization for used in human biology, paleodemography, and forensic science was demonstrated.
Global Models of Ridge-Push Force, Geoid, and Lithospheric Strength of Oceanic plates
Mahatsente, Rezene
2017-12-01
An understanding of the transmission of ridge-push related stresses in the interior of oceanic plates is important because ridge-push force is one of the principal forces driving plate motion. Here, I assess the transmission of ridge-push related stresses in oceanic plates by comparing the magnitude of the ridge-push force to the integrated strength of oceanic plates. The strength is determined based on plate cooling and rheological models. The strength analysis includes low-temperature plasticity (LTP) in the upper mantle and assumes a range of possible tectonic conditions and rheology in the plates. The ridge-push force has been derived from the thermal state of oceanic lithosphere, seafloor depth and crustal age data. The results of modeling show that the transmission of ridge-push related stresses in oceanic plates mainly depends on rheology and predominant tectonic conditions. If a lithosphere has dry rheology, the estimated strength is higher than the ridge-push force at all ages for compressional tectonics and at old ages (>75 Ma) for extension. Therefore, under such conditions, oceanic plates may not respond to ridge-push force by intraplate deformation. Instead, the plates may transmit the ridge-push related stress in their interior. For a wet rheology, however, the strength of young lithosphere (stress may dissipate in the interior of oceanic plates and diffuses by intraplate deformation. The state of stress within a plate depends on the balance of far-field and intraplate forces.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
C.K.P. Dorneles
2009-04-01
Full Text Available Foram utilizados 21.702 registros de produção de leite no dia do controle de 2.429 vacas primíparas da raça Holandesa, filhas de 233 touros, coletados em 33 rebanhos do Estado do Rio Grande do Sul, para estimar parâmetros genéticos para produção de leite no dia do controle. O modelo de regressão aleatória ajustado aos controles leiteiros entre o sexto e o 305º dia de lactação incluiu o efeito de rebanho-ano-mês do controle, idade da vaca no parto e os parâmetros do polinômio de Legendre de ordem quatro, para modelar a curva média da produção de leite da população e parâmetros do mesmo polinômio, para modelar os efeitos aleatórios genético-aditivo e de ambiente permanente. As variâncias genéticas e de ambiente permanente para produção de leite no dia do controle variaram, respectivamente, de 2,38 a 3,14 e de 7,55 a 10,35. As estimativas de herdabilidade aumentaram gradativamente do início (0,14 para o final do período de lactação (0,20, indicando ser uma característica de moderada herdabilidade. As correlações genéticas entre as produções de leite de diferentes estágios leiteiros variaram de 0,33 a 0,99 e foram maiores entre os controles adjacentes. As correlações de ambiente permanente seguiram a mesma tendência das correlações genéticas. O modelo de regressão aleatória com polinômio de Legendre de ordem quatro pode ser considerado como uma boa ferramenta para estimação de parâmetros genéticos para a produção de leite ao longo da lactação.A total of 21,702 records of milk production from 2,429 first-lactation Holstein cows, sired by 233 bulls, collected in 33 herds in the State of Rio Grande do Sul from 1991 to 2003, were used to estimate genetic parameters for that characteristic. The random regression model adjusted to test day from the 6th and the 305th lactation day included the effect of herd-year-month of the test day, the age of the cow at parturition, and the order fourth Legendre
Regression analysis with categorized regression calibrated exposure: some interesting findings
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Hjartåker Anette
2006-07-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Regression calibration as a method for handling measurement error is becoming increasingly well-known and used in epidemiologic research. However, the standard version of the method is not appropriate for exposure analyzed on a categorical (e.g. quintile scale, an approach commonly used in epidemiologic studies. A tempting solution could then be to use the predicted continuous exposure obtained through the regression calibration method and treat it as an approximation to the true exposure, that is, include the categorized calibrated exposure in the main regression analysis. Methods We use semi-analytical calculations and simulations to evaluate the performance of the proposed approach compared to the naive approach of not correcting for measurement error, in situations where analyses are performed on quintile scale and when incorporating the original scale into the categorical variables, respectively. We also present analyses of real data, containing measures of folate intake and depression, from the Norwegian Women and Cancer study (NOWAC. Results In cases where extra information is available through replicated measurements and not validation data, regression calibration does not maintain important qualities of the true exposure distribution, thus estimates of variance and percentiles can be severely biased. We show that the outlined approach maintains much, in some cases all, of the misclassification found in the observed exposure. For that reason, regression analysis with the corrected variable included on a categorical scale is still biased. In some cases the corrected estimates are analytically equal to those obtained by the naive approach. Regression calibration is however vastly superior to the naive method when applying the medians of each category in the analysis. Conclusion Regression calibration in its most well-known form is not appropriate for measurement error correction when the exposure is analyzed on a
Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF)
Federal Laboratory Consortium — The Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF) was established at Oak Ridge National Laboratory in 2004 with the mission of standing up a supercomputer 100 times...
Multivariate and semiparametric kernel regression
Härdle, Wolfgang; Müller, Marlene
1997-01-01
The paper gives an introduction to theory and application of multivariate and semiparametric kernel smoothing. Multivariate nonparametric density estimation is an often used pilot tool for examining the structure of data. Regression smoothing helps in investigating the association between covariates and responses. We concentrate on kernel smoothing using local polynomial fitting which includes the Nadaraya-Watson estimator. Some theory on the asymptotic behavior and bandwidth selection is pro...
Oak Ridge Geochemical Reconnaissance Program
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Arendt, J.W.
1977-03-01
The Oak Ridge reconnaissance program is responsible for the geochemical survey in a 12-state area covering Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, North Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Iowa, Indiana, and Illinois as part of the National Uranium Resource Evaluation Program. The program concept is outlined and the planning and organization of the program is discussed
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Claudio Napolis Costa
2005-10-01
número de estimativas negativas entre as PLC do início e fim da lactação do que a FAS. Exceto para a FAS, observou-se redução das estimativas de correlação genética próximas à unidade entre as PLC adjacentes para valores negativos entre as PLC no início e no fim da lactação. Entre os polinômios de Legendre, o de quinta ordem apresentou um melhor o ajuste das PLC. Os resultados indicam o potencial de uso de regressão aleatória, com os modelos LP5 e a FAS apresentando-se como os mais adequados para a modelagem das variâncias genética e de efeito permanente das PLC da raça Gir.Data comprising 8,183 test day records of 1,273 first lactations of Gyr cows from herds supervised by ABCZ were used to estimate variance components and genetic parameters for milk yield using repeatability and random regression animal models by REML. Genetic modelling of logarithmic (FAS, exponential (FW curves was compared to orthogonal Legendre polynomials (LP of order 3 to 5. Residual variance was assumed to be constant in all (ME=1 or some periods of lactation (ME=4. Lactation milk yield in 305-d was also adjusted by an animal model. Genetic variance, heritability and repeatability for test day milk yields estimated by a repeatability animal model were 1.74 kg2, 0.27, and 0.76, respectively. Genetic variance and heritability estimates for lactation milk yield were respectively 121,094.6 and 0.22. Heritability estimates from FAS and FW, respectively, decreased from 0,59 and 0.74 at the beginning of lactation to 0.20 at the end of the period. Except for a fifth-order LP with ME=1, heritability estimates decreased from around 0,70 at early lactation to 0,30 at the end of lactation. Residual variance estimates were slightly smaller for logarithimic than for exponential curves both for homogeneous and heterogeneous variance assumptions. Estimates of residual variance in all stages of lactation decreased as the order of LP increased and depended on the assumption about ME
A comparison of regression algorithms for wind speed forecasting at Alexander Bay
CSIR Research Space (South Africa)
Botha, Nicolene
2016-12-01
Full Text Available to forecast 1 to 24 hours ahead, in hourly intervals. Predictions are performed on a wind speed time series with three machine learning regression algorithms, namely support vector regression, ordinary least squares and Bayesian ridge regression. The resulting...
Forecasting exchange rates: a robust regression approach
Preminger, Arie; Franck, Raphael
2005-01-01
The least squares estimation method as well as other ordinary estimation method for regression models can be severely affected by a small number of outliers, thus providing poor out-of-sample forecasts. This paper suggests a robust regression approach, based on the S-estimation method, to construct forecasting models that are less sensitive to data contamination by outliers. A robust linear autoregressive (RAR) and a robust neural network (RNN) models are estimated to study the predictabil...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ana Patricia Bastos Peixoto
2011-11-01
Full Text Available A determinação do tamanho de parcela é uma prática pertinente ao planejamento experimental e sua caracterização otimizada, em conjunto com o controle do material experimental, permite a obtenção de resultados com maior precisão e qualidade. Neste trabalho, determinou-se o tamanho de parcelas para experimentos de conservação in vitro de maracujazeiro, em dez ensaios de uniformidade com a espécie Passiflora Giberti N. E. Brown, utilizando-se o modelo de regressão linear segmentado com platô e o modelo de regressão quadrática segmentado com platô, que utilizam a técnica de resposta com platô a modelos que possuam mínimo. Os ensaios de uniformidade foram oriundos de experimento conduzido no delineamento inteiramente casualizado, com 20 unidades básicas (ub, e os tratamentos dispostos em esquema fatorial com três concentrações de sacarose, três concentrações de sorbitol e uma testemunha. A coleta dos dados foi realizada aos 60 dias após a incubação, medindo-se o comprimento das brotações. Os tamanhos de parcelas variaram com o método utilizado, encontrando-se parcelas formadas por seis explantes pelo modelo da regressão linear segmentado com platô e de dez explantes pelo modelo de regressão quadrática segmentado com platô.The determination of the plot size is a practical question to the experimental design, and its characterization in an optimized way allows obtaining larger precision and quality results. This research aimed to determine the plot size in experiments in vitro that seek the passion fruit plant conservation in ten uniformity assays with the species Passiflora Giberti N. E. Brown. The tests of uniformity came from an experiment conducted in a completely randomized design with treatments in a factorial design with three concentrations of sucrose, three concentrations of sorbitol and a control. Each treatment was considered as a uniformity assay, with 20 basic units. The evaluations of the experiments
Survival analysis II: Cox regression
Stel, Vianda S.; Dekker, Friedo W.; Tripepi, Giovanni; Zoccali, Carmine; Jager, Kitty J.
2011-01-01
In contrast to the Kaplan-Meier method, Cox proportional hazards regression can provide an effect estimate by quantifying the difference in survival between patient groups and can adjust for confounding effects of other variables. The purpose of this article is to explain the basic concepts of the
Kernel regression with functional response
Ferraty, Frédéric; Laksaci, Ali; Tadj, Amel; Vieu, Philippe
2011-01-01
We consider kernel regression estimate when both the response variable and the explanatory one are functional. The rates of uniform almost complete convergence are stated as function of the small ball probability of the predictor and as function of the entropy of the set on which uniformity is obtained.
InRidge program: Preliminary results from the first cruise
Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)
Mukhopadhyay, R.; Murthy, K.S.R.; Iyer, S.D.; Rao, M.M.M.; Banerjee, R.; Subrahmanyam, A.S.; Shirodkar, P.V.; Ghose, I.
The first cruise under India's own Ridge research initiative, InRidge collected new data on bathymetry, free-air gravity and magnetic anomalies across the ridge axis between the Vema and Zhivago transform faults in the Central Indian Ridge...
Regression with Sparse Approximations of Data
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Noorzad, Pardis; Sturm, Bob L.
2012-01-01
We propose sparse approximation weighted regression (SPARROW), a method for local estimation of the regression function that uses sparse approximation with a dictionary of measurements. SPARROW estimates the regression function at a point with a linear combination of a few regressands selected...... by a sparse approximation of the point in terms of the regressors. We show SPARROW can be considered a variant of \\(k\\)-nearest neighbors regression (\\(k\\)-NNR), and more generally, local polynomial kernel regression. Unlike \\(k\\)-NNR, however, SPARROW can adapt the number of regressors to use based...
The beach ridges of India: A review
Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)
Kunte, P.D.; Wagle, B.G.
, and is presented in a consolidated form. Beach ridges of the east and west coast of India are grouped in thirteen-beach ridge complexes based on their association. Review indicates that the beach ridges of India are not older than the Holocene age...
Dynamics of the Seychelles-Chagos Thermocline Ridge
Bulusu, S.
2016-02-01
The southwest tropical Indian Ocean (SWTIO) features a unique, seasonal upwelling of the thermocline also known as the Seychelles-Chagos Thermocline Ridge (SCTR). More recently, this ridge or "dome"-like feature in the thermocline depth at (55°E-65°E, 5°S-12°S) in the SWTIO has been linked to interannual variability in the semi-annual Indian Ocean monsoon seasons as well as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The SCTR is a region where the MJO is associated with strong SST variability. Normally more cyclones are found generated in this SCTR region when the thermocline is deeper, which has a positive relation to the arrival of a downwelling Rossby wave from the southeast tropical Indian Ocean. Previous studies have focused their efforts solely on sea surface temperature (SST) because they determined salinity variability to be low, but with the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS), and Aquarius salinity missions new insight can be shed on the effects that the seasonal upwelling of the thermocline has on Sea Surface Salinity (SSS). Seasonal SSS anomalies these missions will reveal the magnitude of seasonal SSS variability, while Argo depth profiles will show the link between changes in subsurface salinity and temperature structure. A seasonal increase in SST and a decrease in SSS associated with the downwelling of the thermocline have also been shown to occasionally generate MJO events, an extremely important part of climate variability in the Indian ocean. Satellite derives salinity and Argo data can help link changes in surface and subsurface salinity structure to the generation of the important MJO events. This study uses satellite derived salinity from Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS), and Aquarius to see if these satellites can yield new information on seasonal and interannual surface variability. In this study barrier layer thickness (BLT) estimates will be derived from satellite measurements using a
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
1992-08-01
The Background Soil characterization Project (BSCP) will provide background concentration levels of selected metals, organic compounds, and radionuclides in soils from uncontaminated on-site areas at the Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR), and off-site in the western part of Roane County and the eastern part of Anderson County. The BSCP will establish a database, recommend how to use the data for contaminated site assessment, and provide estimates of the potential human health and environmental risks associated with the background level concentrations of potentially hazardous constituents
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
1992-08-01
The Background Soil characterization Project (BSCP) will provide background concentration levels of selected metals, organic compounds, and radionuclides in soils from uncontaminated on-site areas at the Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR), and off-site in the western part of Roane County and the eastern part of Anderson County. The BSCP will establish a database, recommend how to use the data for contaminated site assessment, and provide estimates of the potential human health and environmental risks associated with the background level concentrations of potentially hazardous constituents.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
1991-04-01
The purpose of this detailed analysis is to provide a preliminary compilation of data, information, and estimated costs associated with a RCRA landfill alternative for UNC Disposal Site. This is in response to Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) comment No. 6 from their review of a open-quotes Feasibility Study for the United Nuclear Corporation Disposal Site at the Oak Ridge Y-12 Plant, Oak Ridge, Tennessee.close quotes
Ridge Width Correlations between Inked Prints and Powdered Latent Fingerprints.
De Alcaraz-Fossoul, Josep; Barrot-Feixat, Carme; Zapico, Sara C; Mancenido, Michelle; Broatch, Jennifer; Roberts, Katherine A; Carreras-Marin, Clara; Tasker, Jack
2017-10-03
A methodology to estimate the time of latent fingerprint deposition would be of great value to law enforcement and courts. It has been observed that ridge topography changes as latent prints age, including the widths of ridges that could be measured as a function of time. Crime suspects are commonly identified using fingerprint databases that contain reference inked tenprints (flat and rolled impressions). These can be of interest in aging studies as they provide baseline information relating to the original (nonaged) ridges' widths. In practice, the age of latent fingerprints could be estimated following a comparison process between the evidentiary aged print and the corresponding reference inked print. The present article explores possible correlations between inked and fresh latent fingerprints deposited on different substrates and visualized with TiO 2 . The results indicate that the ridge width of flat inked prints is most similar to fresh latent fingerprints , and these should be used as the comparison standard for future aging studies. © 2017 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.
Regression analysis by example
Chatterjee, Samprit
2012-01-01
Praise for the Fourth Edition: ""This book is . . . an excellent source of examples for regression analysis. It has been and still is readily readable and understandable."" -Journal of the American Statistical Association Regression analysis is a conceptually simple method for investigating relationships among variables. Carrying out a successful application of regression analysis, however, requires a balance of theoretical results, empirical rules, and subjective judgment. Regression Analysis by Example, Fifth Edition has been expanded
Logistic regression for dichotomized counts.
Preisser, John S; Das, Kalyan; Benecha, Habtamu; Stamm, John W
2016-12-01
Sometimes there is interest in a dichotomized outcome indicating whether a count variable is positive or zero. Under this scenario, the application of ordinary logistic regression may result in efficiency loss, which is quantifiable under an assumed model for the counts. In such situations, a shared-parameter hurdle model is investigated for more efficient estimation of regression parameters relating to overall effects of covariates on the dichotomous outcome, while handling count data with many zeroes. One model part provides a logistic regression containing marginal log odds ratio effects of primary interest, while an ancillary model part describes the mean count of a Poisson or negative binomial process in terms of nuisance regression parameters. Asymptotic efficiency of the logistic model parameter estimators of the two-part models is evaluated with respect to ordinary logistic regression. Simulations are used to assess the properties of the models with respect to power and Type I error, the latter investigated under both misspecified and correctly specified models. The methods are applied to data from a randomized clinical trial of three toothpaste formulations to prevent incident dental caries in a large population of Scottish schoolchildren. © The Author(s) 2014.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Danilo F Pereira
2011-02-01
Full Text Available The increasing demand of consumer markets for the welfare of birds in poultry house has motivated many scientific researches to monitor and classify the welfare according to the production environment. Given the complexity between the birds and the environment of the aviary, the correct interpretation of the conduct becomes an important way to estimate the welfare of these birds. This study obtained multiple logistic regression models with capacity of estimating the welfare of broiler breeders in relation to the environment of the aviaries and behaviors expressed by the birds. In the experiment, were observed several behaviors expressed by breeders housed in a climatic chamber under controlled temperatures and three different ammonia concentrations from the air monitored daily. From the analysis of the data it was obtained two logistic regression models, of which the first model uses a value of ammonia concentration measured by unit and the second model uses a binary value to classify the ammonia concentration that is assigned by a person through his olfactory perception. The analysis showed that both models classified the broiler breeder's welfare successfully.As crescentes demandas e exigências dos mercados consumidores pelo bem-estar das aves nos aviários têm motivado diversas pesquisas científicas a monitorar e a classificar o bem-estar em função do ambiente de criação. Diante da complexidade com que as aves interagem com o ambiente do aviário, a correta interpretação dos comportamentos torna-se uma importante maneira para estimar o bem-estar dessas aves. Este trabalho criou modelos de regressão logística múltipla capazes de estimar o bem-estar de matrizes pesadas em função do ambiente do aviário e dos comportamentos expressos pelas aves. No experimento, foram observados diversos comportamentos expressos por matrizes pesadas alojadas em câmara climática sob três temperaturas controladas e diferentes concentrações de am
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Abraham Pouliakis
2015-01-01
Full Text Available Objective. Nowadays numerous ancillary techniques detecting HPV DNA and mRNA compete with cytology; however no perfect test exists; in this study we evaluated classification and regression trees (CARTs for the production of triage rules and estimate the risk for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN in cases with ASCUS+ in cytology. Study Design. We used 1625 cases. In contrast to other approaches we used missing data to increase the data volume, obtain more accurate results, and simulate real conditions in the everyday practice of gynecologic clinics and laboratories. The proposed CART was based on the cytological result, HPV DNA typing, HPV mRNA detection based on NASBA and flow cytometry, p16 immunocytochemical expression, and finally age and parous status. Results. Algorithms useful for the triage of women were produced; gynecologists could apply these in conjunction with available examination results and conclude to an estimation of the risk for a woman to harbor CIN expressed as a probability. Conclusions. The most important test was the cytological examination; however the CART handled cases with inadequate cytological outcome and increased the diagnostic accuracy by exploiting the results of ancillary techniques even if there were inadequate missing data. The CART performance was better than any other single test involved in this study.
Pouliakis, Abraham; Karakitsou, Efrossyni; Chrelias, Charalampos; Pappas, Asimakis; Panayiotides, Ioannis; Valasoulis, George; Kyrgiou, Maria; Paraskevaidis, Evangelos; Karakitsos, Petros
2015-01-01
Nowadays numerous ancillary techniques detecting HPV DNA and mRNA compete with cytology; however no perfect test exists; in this study we evaluated classification and regression trees (CARTs) for the production of triage rules and estimate the risk for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) in cases with ASCUS+ in cytology. We used 1625 cases. In contrast to other approaches we used missing data to increase the data volume, obtain more accurate results, and simulate real conditions in the everyday practice of gynecologic clinics and laboratories. The proposed CART was based on the cytological result, HPV DNA typing, HPV mRNA detection based on NASBA and flow cytometry, p16 immunocytochemical expression, and finally age and parous status. Algorithms useful for the triage of women were produced; gynecologists could apply these in conjunction with available examination results and conclude to an estimation of the risk for a woman to harbor CIN expressed as a probability. The most important test was the cytological examination; however the CART handled cases with inadequate cytological outcome and increased the diagnostic accuracy by exploiting the results of ancillary techniques even if there were inadequate missing data. The CART performance was better than any other single test involved in this study.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Thomas E. Widner; et. al.
1999-07-01
In the early 1990s, concern about the Oak Ridge Reservation's past releases of contaminants to the environment prompted Tennessee's public health officials to pursue an in-depth study of potential off-site health effects at Oak Ridge. This study, the Oak Ridge dose reconstruction, was supported by an agreement between the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and the State of Tennessee, and was overseen by a 12-member panel of individuals appointed by Tennessee's Commissioner of Health. The panel requested that the principal investigator for the project prepare the following report, ''Oak Ridge Dose Reconstruction Project Summary Report,'' to serve the following purposes: (1) summarize in a single, less technical report, the methods and results of the various investigations that comprised the Phase II of the dose reconstruction; (2) describe the systematic searching of classified and unclassified historical records that was a vital component of the project; and (3) summarize the less detailed, screening-level assessments that were performed to evaluate the potential health significance of a number of materials, such a uranium, whose priority did not require a complete dose reconstruction effort. This report describes each major step of the dose reconstruction study: (1) the review of thousands of historical records to obtain information relating to past operations at each facility; (2) estimation of the quantity and timing of releases of radioiodines from X-10, of mercury from Y-12, of PCB's from all facilities, and of cesium-137 and other radionuclides from White Oak Creek; (3) evaluation of the routes taken by these contaminants through the environment to nearby populations; and (4) estimation of doses and health risks to exposed groups. Calculations found the highest excess cancer risks for a female born in 1952 who drank goat milk; the highest non-cancer health risk was for children in a farm family exposed to PCBs in and near
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Widner, Thomas E.; email = twidner@jajoneses.com
1999-01-01
In the early 1990s, concern about the Oak Ridge Reservation's past releases of contaminants to the environment prompted Tennessee's public health officials to pursue an in-depth study of potential off-site health effects at Oak Ridge. This study, the Oak Ridge dose reconstruction, was supported by an agreement between the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and the State of Tennessee, and was overseen by a 12-member panel of individuals appointed by Tennessee's Commissioner of Health. The panel requested that the principal investigator for the project prepare the following report, ''Oak Ridge Dose Reconstruction Project Summary Report,'' to serve the following purposes: (1) summarize in a single, less technical report, the methods and results of the various investigations that comprised the Phase II of the dose reconstruction; (2) describe the systematic searching of classified and unclassified historical records that was a vital component of the project; and (3) summarize the less detailed, screening-level assessments that were performed to evaluate the potential health significance of a number of materials, such a uranium, whose priority did not require a complete dose reconstruction effort. This report describes each major step of the dose reconstruction study: (1) the review of thousands of historical records to obtain information relating to past operations at each facility; (2) estimation of the quantity and timing of releases of radioiodines from X-10, of mercury from Y-12, of PCB's from all facilities, and of cesium-137 and other radionuclides from White Oak Creek; (3) evaluation of the routes taken by these contaminants through the environment to nearby populations; and (4) estimation of doses and health risks to exposed groups. Calculations found the highest excess cancer risks for a female born in 1952 who drank goat milk; the highest non-cancer health risk was for children in a farm family exposed to PCBs in and near East Fork Poplar Creek. More detailed
Bose enhancement and the ridge
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Altinoluk, Tolga [Departamento de Física de Partículas and IGFAE, Universidade de Santiago de Compostela, 15706 Santiago de Compostela, Galicia (Spain); Armesto, Néstor, E-mail: nestor.armesto@usc.es [Departamento de Física de Partículas and IGFAE, Universidade de Santiago de Compostela, 15706 Santiago de Compostela, Galicia (Spain); Beuf, Guillaume [Department of Physics, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Beer Sheva 84105 (Israel); Kovner, Alex [Physics Department, University of Connecticut, 2152 Hillside Road, Storrs, CT 06269-3046 (United States); Lublinsky, Michael [Department of Physics, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Beer Sheva 84105 (Israel)
2015-12-17
We point out that Bose enhancement in a hadronic wave function generically leads to correlations between produced particles. We show explicitly, by calculating the projectile density matrix in the Color Glass Condensate approach to high-energy hadronic collisions, that the Bose enhancement of gluons in the projectile leads to azimuthal collimation of long range rapidity correlations of the produced particles, the so-called ridge correlations.
Bose enhancement and the ridge
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Tolga Altinoluk
2015-12-01
Full Text Available We point out that Bose enhancement in a hadronic wave function generically leads to correlations between produced particles. We show explicitly, by calculating the projectile density matrix in the Color Glass Condensate approach to high-energy hadronic collisions, that the Bose enhancement of gluons in the projectile leads to azimuthal collimation of long range rapidity correlations of the produced particles, the so-called ridge correlations.
Oak Ridge National Laboratory Review
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Krause, C.; Pearce, J.; Zucker, A. (eds.)
1992-01-01
This report presents brief descriptions of the following programs at Oak Ridge National Laboratory: The effects of pollution and climate change on forests; automation to improve the safety and efficiency of rearming battle tanks; new technologies for DNA sequencing; ORNL probes the human genome; ORNL as a supercomputer research center; paving the way to superconcrete made with polystyrene; a new look at supercritical water used in waste treatment; and small mammals as environmental monitors.
Vesecky, J. F.; Daida, J. M.; Shuchman, R. A.; Onstott, R. H.; Camiso, J. C.
1993-01-01
Ridges and keels (hummocks and bummocks) in sea ice flows are important in sea ice research for both scientific and practical reasons. Sea ice movement and deformation is driven by internal and external stresses on the ice. Ridges and keels play important roles in both cases because they determine the external wind and current stresses via drag coefficients. For example, the drag coefficient over sea ice can vary by a factor of several depending on the fluid mechanical roughness length of the surface. This roughness length is thought to be strongly dependent on the ridge structures present. Thus, variations in ridge and keel structure can cause gradients in external stresses which must be balanced by internal stresses and possibly fracture of the ice. Ridging in sea ice is also a sign of fracture. In a practical sense, large ridges form the biggest impediment to surface travel over the ice or penetration through sea ice by ice-strengthened ships. Ridges also play an important role in the damage caused by sea ice to off-shore structures. Hence, observation and measurement of sea ice ridges is an important component of sea ice remote sensing. The research reported here builds on previous work, estimating the characteristics of ridges and leads in sea ice from SAR images. Our objective is to develop methods for quantitative measurement of sea ice ridges from SAR images. To make further progress, in particular, to estimate ridge height, a scattering model for ridges is needed. Our research approach for a ridge scattering model begins with a survey of the geometrical properties of ridges and a comparison with the characteristics of the surrounding ice. For this purpose we have used airborne optical laser (AOL) data collected during the 1987 Greenland Sea Experiment. These data were used to generate a spatial wavenumber spectrum for height variance for a typical ridge - the typical ridge is the average over 10 large ridges. Our first-order model radar scattering includes
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mónica Bocco
2010-09-01
Full Text Available The incident solar radiation on soil is an important variable used in agricultural applications; it is also relevant in hydrology, meteorology and soil physics, among others. To estimate this variable, empirical models have been developed using several parameters and, recently, prognostic and prediction models based on artificial intelligence techniques such as neural networks. The aim of this work was to develop linear models and neural networks, multilayer perceptron, to estimate daily global solar radiation and compare their efficiency in its application to a region of the Province of Salta, Argentina. Relative sunshine duration, maximum and minimum temperature, rainfall, binary rainfall and extraterrestrial solar radiation data for the period 1996-2002, were used. All data were supplied by Experimental Station Salta, Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA, Argentina. For both, neural networks models and linear regressions, three alternative combinations of meteorological parameters were considered. Good results with both prediction methods were obtained, with root mean square error (RMSE values between 1.99 and 1.66 MJ m-2 d-1 for linear regressions and neural networks, and coefficients of correlation (r² between 0.88 and 0.92, respectively. Even though neural networks and linear regression models can be used to predict the daily global solar radiation appropriately, neural networks produced better estimates.La radiación solar incidente en el suelo es una variable importante usada en aplicaciones agronómicas, además es relevante en hidrología, meteorología y física del suelo, entre otros. Para estimarla se han desarrollado modelos empíricos que utilizan distintos parámetros meteorológicos y, recientemente, modelos de pronóstico y predicción basados en técnicas de inteligencia artificial tales como redes neuronales. El objetivo de este trabajo fue desarrollar modelos lineales y de redes neuronales, del tipo perceptr
Environmental Monitoring Plan for the Oak Ridge Reservation, 2012
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Thompson, Sharon D. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
2012-10-01
The purpose of Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR) environmental surveillance is to characterize radiological and nonradiological conditions of the off-site environs and estimate public doses related to these conditions, confirm estimations of public dose based on effluent monitoring data, and, where appropriate, provide supplemental data to support compliance monitoring for applicable environmental regulations. This environmental monitoring plan (EMP) is intended to document the rationale, frequency, parameters, and analytical methods for the ORR environmental surveillance program and provides information on ORR site characteristics, environmental pathways, dose assessment methods, and quality management. ORR-wide environmental monitoring activities include a variety of media including air, surface water, vegetation, biota, and wildlife. In addition to these activities, site-specific effluent, groundwater, and best management monitoring programs are conducted at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), the Y-12 National Security Complex (Y-12), and the East Tennessee Technology Park (ETTP). This is revision 5.
Understanding logistic regression analysis
Sperandei, Sandro
2014-01-01
Logistic regression is used to obtain odds ratio in the presence of more than one explanatory variable. The procedure is quite similar to multiple linear regression, with the exception that the response variable is binomial. The result is the impact of each variable on the odds ratio of the observed event of interest. The main advantage is to avoid confounding effects by analyzing the association of all variables together. In this article, we explain the logistic regression procedure using ex...
Introduction to regression graphics
Cook, R Dennis
2009-01-01
Covers the use of dynamic and interactive computer graphics in linear regression analysis, focusing on analytical graphics. Features new techniques like plot rotation. The authors have composed their own regression code, using Xlisp-Stat language called R-code, which is a nearly complete system for linear regression analysis and can be utilized as the main computer program in a linear regression course. The accompanying disks, for both Macintosh and Windows computers, contain the R-code and Xlisp-Stat. An Instructor's Manual presenting detailed solutions to all the problems in the book is ava
Alternative Methods of Regression
Birkes, David
2011-01-01
Of related interest. Nonlinear Regression Analysis and its Applications Douglas M. Bates and Donald G. Watts ".an extraordinary presentation of concepts and methods concerning the use and analysis of nonlinear regression models.highly recommend[ed].for anyone needing to use and/or understand issues concerning the analysis of nonlinear regression models." --Technometrics This book provides a balance between theory and practice supported by extensive displays of instructive geometrical constructs. Numerous in-depth case studies illustrate the use of nonlinear regression analysis--with all data s
Magnetic anomalies across the southern Central Indian Ridge: evidence for a new transform fault
Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)
Chaubey, A.K.; Krishna, K.S.; SubbaRaju, L.V.; Rao, D.G.
, Vol. 37. No. 4. pp. MT-~a56, 1990. 0198-.0149/90 $3.(gl + 0.00 Pnnled in Great Britain. (~ 1990 Pergartma Ptes6 pie Magnetic anomalies across the southern Central Indian Ridge: evidence for a new transform fault A. K. CHAUBEY,* K. S. KRISHNA,* L. V... to the ridge are identified as sea-floor spreading lineations 2.2A,3.3A and 4. A half spreading rate of 2.2 cm y- t is estimated for the last I0 Ma. The ridge jump between the anomalies 2-2A (approx. 2.5 Ma) and a new left lateral transform fault offsetting...
A regression approach for zircaloy-2 in-reactor creep constitutive equations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Yung Liu, Y.; Bement, A.L.
1977-01-01
In this paper the methodology of multiple regressions as applied to zircaloy-2 in-reactor creep data analysis and construction of constitutive equation are illustrated. While the resulting constitutive equation can be used in creep analysis of in-reactor zircaloy structural components, the methodology itself is entirely general and can be applied to any creep data analysis. From data analysis and model development point of views, both the assumption of independence and prior committment to specific model forms are unacceptable. One would desire means which can not only estimate the required parameters directly from data but also provide basis for model selections, viz., one model against others. Basic understanding of the physics of deformation is important in choosing the forms of starting physical model equations, but the justifications must rely on their abilities in correlating the overall data. The promising aspects of multiple regression creep data analysis are briefly outlined as follows: (1) when there are more than one variable involved, there is no need to make the assumption that each variable affects the response independently. No separate normalizations are required either and the estimation of parameters is obtained by solving many simultaneous equations. The number of simultaneous equations is equal to the number of data sets, (2) regression statistics such as R 2 - and F-statistics provide measures of the significance of regression creep equation in correlating the overall data. The relative weights of each variable on the response can also be obtained. (3) Special regression techniques such as step-wise, ridge, and robust regressions and residual plots, etc., provide diagnostic tools for model selections
Is there a sex difference in palm print ridge density?
Kanchan, Tanuj; Krishan, Kewal; Aparna, K R; Shyamsundar, S
2013-01-01
Analysis of fingerprints and palm prints at the crime scene is vital to identify the suspect and establish a crime. Dermatoglyphics can even be valuable in identification of a dismembered hand during medicolegal investigations to establish the identity of an individual in cases of mass disasters/mass homicides. The present research studies the variation in ridge density in different areas of the palm prints among men and women. The four prominent areas were analysed on the palm prints that included central prominent part of the thenar eminence (P1), hypothenar region; inner to the proximal axial triradius (P2), medial mount; proximal to the triradius of the second digit (P3) and lateral mount; proximal to the triradius of the fifth digit (P4). The mean palm print ridge density was significantly higher among women than men in all the designated areas in both hands except for the P3 area in the right hand. Statistically significant differences were observed in the palm print ridge density between the different palm areas in men and women in right and left hands. No significant right-left differences were observed in the palm print ridge density in any of the four areas of palm prints among men. In women, right-left differences were observed only in the P3 and P4 areas of palm prints. This preliminary study indicates that though the palm print ridge density is a sexually dimorphic variable, its utility for estimation of sex in forensic identification may be limited owing to significant overlapping of values.
Understanding logistic regression analysis.
Sperandei, Sandro
2014-01-01
Logistic regression is used to obtain odds ratio in the presence of more than one explanatory variable. The procedure is quite similar to multiple linear regression, with the exception that the response variable is binomial. The result is the impact of each variable on the odds ratio of the observed event of interest. The main advantage is to avoid confounding effects by analyzing the association of all variables together. In this article, we explain the logistic regression procedure using examples to make it as simple as possible. After definition of the technique, the basic interpretation of the results is highlighted and then some special issues are discussed.
Weisberg, Sanford
2013-01-01
Praise for the Third Edition ""...this is an excellent book which could easily be used as a course text...""-International Statistical Institute The Fourth Edition of Applied Linear Regression provides a thorough update of the basic theory and methodology of linear regression modeling. Demonstrating the practical applications of linear regression analysis techniques, the Fourth Edition uses interesting, real-world exercises and examples. Stressing central concepts such as model building, understanding parameters, assessing fit and reliability, and drawing conclusions, the new edition illus
Hosmer, David W; Sturdivant, Rodney X
2013-01-01
A new edition of the definitive guide to logistic regression modeling for health science and other applications This thoroughly expanded Third Edition provides an easily accessible introduction to the logistic regression (LR) model and highlights the power of this model by examining the relationship between a dichotomous outcome and a set of covariables. Applied Logistic Regression, Third Edition emphasizes applications in the health sciences and handpicks topics that best suit the use of modern statistical software. The book provides readers with state-of-
A Simulation Investigation of Principal Component Regression.
Allen, David E.
Regression analysis is one of the more common analytic tools used by researchers. However, multicollinearity between the predictor variables can cause problems in using the results of regression analyses. Problems associated with multicollinearity include entanglement of relative influences of variables due to reduced precision of estimation,…
Emergency preparedness at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Skipper, M.N.
1990-03-01
Emergency preparedness for industry was commonly believed to be an essential responsibility on the part of management. Therefore, this study was conducted to research and accumulate information and data on emergency preparedness at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). The objective of this study was to conduct a thorough evaluation of emergency preparedness knowledge among employees to determine if they were properly informed or if they needed more training. Also, this study was conducted to provide insight to management as to what their responsibility was concerning this training. To assess employee emergency preparedness knowledge, a questionnaire was developed and administered to 100 employees at ORNL. The data was analyzed using frequencies and percentages of response and was displayed through the use of graphs within the report. 22 refs., 22 figs
Emergency preparedness at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Skipper, M.N.
1990-03-01
Emergency preparedness for industry was commonly believed to be an essential responsibility on the part of management. Therefore, this study was conducted to research and accumulate information and data on emergency preparedness at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). The objective of this study was to conduct a thorough evaluation of emergency preparedness knowledge among employees to determine if they were properly informed or if they needed more training. Also, this study was conducted to provide insight to management as to what their responsibility was concerning this training. To assess employee emergency preparedness knowledge, a questionnaire was developed and administered to 100 employees at ORNL. The data was analyzed using frequencies and percentages of response and was displayed through the use of graphs within the report. 22 refs., 22 figs.
Jaworski, N W; Liu, D W; Li, D F; Stein, H H
2016-07-01
. The DE, ME, and NE of wheat bran determined using the difference procedure were 2,168, 2,117, and 896 kcal/kg, respectively, and these values were within the 95% confidence interval of the DE (2,285 kcal/kg), ME (2,217 kcal/kg), and NE (961 kcal/kg) estimated by linear regression. In conclusion, increasing the inclusion of wheat bran in a corn-soybean meal based diet reduced energy and nutrient digestibility and heat production as well as DE, ME, and NE of diets, but values for DE, ME, and NE for wheat bran determined using the difference procedure were not different from values determined using linear regression.
Understanding poisson regression.
Hayat, Matthew J; Higgins, Melinda
2014-04-01
Nurse investigators often collect study data in the form of counts. Traditional methods of data analysis have historically approached analysis of count data either as if the count data were continuous and normally distributed or with dichotomization of the counts into the categories of occurred or did not occur. These outdated methods for analyzing count data have been replaced with more appropriate statistical methods that make use of the Poisson probability distribution, which is useful for analyzing count data. The purpose of this article is to provide an overview of the Poisson distribution and its use in Poisson regression. Assumption violations for the standard Poisson regression model are addressed with alternative approaches, including addition of an overdispersion parameter or negative binomial regression. An illustrative example is presented with an application from the ENSPIRE study, and regression modeling of comorbidity data is included for illustrative purposes. Copyright 2014, SLACK Incorporated.
Metallogenesis along the Indian Ocean Ridge System
Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)
Banerjee, R.; Ray, Dwijesh
including India. Among these studies majority were concentrated around the Central Indian Ridge and the Southwest Indian Ridge areas, while a few observations were made around the rest of the areas in the IORS. The findings of these studies are discussed...
Sex Determination from Fingerprint Ridge Density | Gungadin ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
This study was conducted with an aim to establish a relationship between sex and fingerprint ridge density. The fingerprints were taken from 500 subjects (250 males and 250 females) in the age group of 18-60 years. After taking fingerprints, the ridges were counted in the upper portion of the radial border of each print for all ...
Ridge interaction features of the Line Islands
Konter, J. G.; Koppers, A. A. P.; Storm, L. P.
2016-12-01
The sections of Pacific absolute plate motion history that precede the Hawaii-Emperor and Louisville chains are based on three chains: the Line Islands-Mid-Pacific Mountains, the Hess Rise-Shatsky Rise, and the Marshall Islands-Wake Islands (Rurutu hotspot). Although it has been clear that the Line Islands do not define a simple age progression (e.g. Schlanger et al., 1984), the apparent similarity to the Emperor Seamount geographic trend has been used to extend the overall Hawaii-Emperor track further into the past. However, we show here that plate tectonic reconstructions suggest that the Mid-Pacific Mountains (MPMs) and Line Islands (LIs) were erupted near a mid-ocean ridge, and thus these structures do not reflect absolute plate motion. Moverover, the morphology and geochemistry of the volcanoes show similarities with Pukapuka Ridge (e.g. Davis et al., 2002) and the Rano Rahi seamounts, presumed to have a shallow origin. Modern 40Ar/39Ar ages show that the LIs erupted at various times along the entire volcanic chain. The oldest structures formed within 10 Ma of plate formation. Given the short distance to the ridge system, large aseismic volcanic ridges, such as Necker Ridge and Horizon Guyot may simply reflect a connection between MPMs and the ridge, similar to the Pukapuka Ridge. The Line Islands to the south (including Karin Ridge) define short subchains of elongated seamounts that are widespread, resembling the Rano Rahi seamount field. During this time, the plate moved nearly parallel to the ridge system. The change from few large ridges to many subchains may reflect a change in absolute plate motion, similar to the Rano Rahi field. Here, significant MPMs volcanism is no longer connected to the ridge along plate motion. Similar to Pukapuka vs. Rano Rahi, the difference in direction between plate motion and the closest ridge determines whether larger ridges or smaller seamount subchains are formed. The difference between the largest structures (MPMs and LIs
Gaussian Process Regression Model in Spatial Logistic Regression
Sofro, A.; Oktaviarina, A.
2018-01-01
Spatial analysis has developed very quickly in the last decade. One of the favorite approaches is based on the neighbourhood of the region. Unfortunately, there are some limitations such as difficulty in prediction. Therefore, we offer Gaussian process regression (GPR) to accommodate the issue. In this paper, we will focus on spatial modeling with GPR for binomial data with logit link function. The performance of the model will be investigated. We will discuss the inference of how to estimate the parameters and hyper-parameters and to predict as well. Furthermore, simulation studies will be explained in the last section.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
1993-10-01
The Background Soil Characterization Project (BSCP) will provide background concentration levels of selected metals organic compounds, and radionuclides in soils from uncontaminated on-site areas at the Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR), and off-site in the western part of Roane County and the eastern part of Anderson County. The BSCP will establish a database, recommend how to use the data for contaminated site assessment, and provide estimates of the potential human health and environmental risks associated with the background level concentrations of potentially hazardous constituents. This volume contains the data from the Background Soil Characterization Project. When available, the following validation qualifiers are used in the appendixes. When validation qualifiers are not available, the corresponding contract laboratory data qualifiers appearing on the next page are used
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Sander, Lasse; Raniolo, Luís Ariél; Alberdi, Ernesto
2014-01-01
for the WGS84 ellipsoid. On a beach ridge plain at Caleta de los Loros, Río Negro, Argentina, we observed a good correlation of GPS-RTK (GPS-Real Time Kinematic) measurements (estimated vertical accuracy:
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
1995-12-01
This plan for the Gunite and Associated Tanks (GAAT) Treatability Studies Project satisfies the requirements of the program management plan for the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Environmental Restoration (ER) Program as established in the Program Management Plan for the Martin Marietta Energy Systems, Inc., Oak Ridge National Laboratory Site Environmental Restoration Program. This plan is a subtier of several other ER documents designed to satisfy the US Department of Energy (DOE) Order 4700.1 requirement for major systems acquisitions. This project management plan identifies the major activities of the GAAT Treatability Studies Project; establishes performance criteria; discusses the roles and responsibilities of the organizations that will perform the work; and summarizes the work breakdown structure, schedule, milestones, and cost estimate for the project
Multicollinearity and Regression Analysis
Daoud, Jamal I.
2017-12-01
In regression analysis it is obvious to have a correlation between the response and predictor(s), but having correlation among predictors is something undesired. The number of predictors included in the regression model depends on many factors among which, historical data, experience, etc. At the end selection of most important predictors is something objective due to the researcher. Multicollinearity is a phenomena when two or more predictors are correlated, if this happens, the standard error of the coefficients will increase [8]. Increased standard errors means that the coefficients for some or all independent variables may be found to be significantly different from In other words, by overinflating the standard errors, multicollinearity makes some variables statistically insignificant when they should be significant. In this paper we focus on the multicollinearity, reasons and consequences on the reliability of the regression model.
Multi-model ensemble estimation of volume transport through the straits of the East/Japan Sea
Han, Sooyeon; Hirose, Naoki; Usui, Norihisa; Miyazawa, Yasumasa
2016-01-01
The volume transports measured at the Korea/Tsushima, Tsugaru, and Soya/La Perouse Straits remain quantitatively inconsistent. However, data assimilation models at least provide a self-consistent budget despite subtle differences among the models. This study examined the seasonal variation of the volume transport using the multiple linear regression and ridge regression of multi-model ensemble (MME) methods to estimate more accurately transport at these straits by using four different data assimilation models. The MME outperformed all of the single models by reducing uncertainties, especially the multicollinearity problem with the ridge regression. However, the regression constants turned out to be inconsistent with each other if the MME was applied separately for each strait. The MME for a connected system was thus performed to find common constants for these straits. The estimation of this MME was found to be similar to the MME result of sea level difference (SLD). The estimated mean transport (2.43 Sv) was smaller than the measurement data at the Korea/Tsushima Strait, but the calibrated transport of the Tsugaru Strait (1.63 Sv) was larger than the observed data. The MME results of transport and SLD also suggested that the standard deviation (STD) of the Korea/Tsushima Strait is larger than the STD of the observation, whereas the estimated results were almost identical to that observed for the Tsugaru and Soya/La Perouse Straits. The similarity between MME results enhances the reliability of the present MME estimation.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Luis Gabriel González Herrera
2008-09-01
of Gyr cows calving between 1990 and 2005 were used to estimate genetic parameters of monthly test-day milk yield (TDMY. Records were analyzed by random regression models (MRA that included the additive genetic and permanent environmental random effects and the contemporary group, age of cow at calving (linear and quadratic components and the average trend of the population as fixed effects. Random trajectories were fitted by Wilmink's (WIL and Ali & Schaeffer's (AS parametric functions. Residual variances were fitted by step functions with 1, 4, 6 or 10 classes. The contemporary group was defined by herd-year-season of test-day and included at least three animals. Models were compared by Akaike's and Schwarz's Bayesian (BIC information criterion. The AS function used for modeling the additive genetic and permanent environmental effects with heterogeneous residual variances adjusted with a step function with four classes was the best fitted model. Heritability estimates ranged from 0.21 to 0.33 for the AS function and from 0.17 to 0.30 for WIL function and were larger in the first half of the lactation period. Genetic correlations between TDMY were high and positive for adjacent test-days and decreased as days between records increased. Predicted breeding values for total 305-day milk yield (MRA305 and specific periods of lactation (obtained by the mean of all breeding values in the periods using the AS function were compared with that predicted by a standard model using accumulated 305-day milk yield (PTA305 by rank correlation. The magnitude of correlations suggested differences may be observed in ranking animals by using the different criteria which were compared in this study.
Unbalanced Regressions and the Predictive Equation
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Osterrieder, Daniela; Ventosa-Santaulària, Daniel; Vera-Valdés, J. Eduardo
Predictive return regressions with persistent regressors are typically plagued by (asymptotically) biased/inconsistent estimates of the slope, non-standard or potentially even spurious statistical inference, and regression unbalancedness. We alleviate the problem of unbalancedness in the theoreti......Predictive return regressions with persistent regressors are typically plagued by (asymptotically) biased/inconsistent estimates of the slope, non-standard or potentially even spurious statistical inference, and regression unbalancedness. We alleviate the problem of unbalancedness...... in the theoretical predictive equation by suggesting a data generating process, where returns are generated as linear functions of a lagged latent I(0) risk process. The observed predictor is a function of this latent I(0) process, but it is corrupted by a fractionally integrated noise. Such a process may arise due...... to aggregation or unexpected level shifts. In this setup, the practitioner estimates a misspecified, unbalanced, and endogenous predictive regression. We show that the OLS estimate of this regression is inconsistent, but standard inference is possible. To obtain a consistent slope estimate, we then suggest...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Boris Kauhl
2016-11-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background The provision of general practitioners (GPs in Germany still relies mainly on the ratio of inhabitants to GPs at relatively large scales and barely accounts for an increased prevalence of chronic diseases among the elderly and socially underprivileged populations. Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM is one of the major cost-intensive diseases with high rates of potentially preventable complications. Provision of healthcare and access to preventive measures is necessary to reduce the burden of T2DM. However, current studies on the spatial variation of T2DM in Germany are mostly based on survey data, which do not only underestimate the true prevalence of T2DM, but are also only available on large spatial scales. The aim of this study is therefore to analyse the spatial distribution of T2DM at fine geographic scales and to assess location-specific risk factors based on data of the AOK health insurance. Methods To display the spatial heterogeneity of T2DM, a bivariate, adaptive kernel density estimation (KDE was applied. The spatial scan statistic (SaTScan was used to detect areas of high risk. Global and local spatial regression models were then constructed to analyze socio-demographic risk factors of T2DM. Results T2DM is especially concentrated in rural areas surrounding Berlin. The risk factors for T2DM consist of proportions of 65–79 year olds, 80 + year olds, unemployment rate among the 55–65 year olds, proportion of employees covered by mandatory social security insurance, mean income tax, and proportion of non-married couples. However, the strength of the association between T2DM and the examined socio-demographic variables displayed strong regional variations. Conclusion The prevalence of T2DM varies at the very local level. Analyzing point data on T2DM of northeastern Germany’s largest health insurance provider thus allows very detailed, location-specific knowledge about increased medical needs. Risk factors
Applied regression analysis a research tool
Pantula, Sastry; Dickey, David
1998-01-01
Least squares estimation, when used appropriately, is a powerful research tool. A deeper understanding of the regression concepts is essential for achieving optimal benefits from a least squares analysis. This book builds on the fundamentals of statistical methods and provides appropriate concepts that will allow a scientist to use least squares as an effective research tool. Applied Regression Analysis is aimed at the scientist who wishes to gain a working knowledge of regression analysis. The basic purpose of this book is to develop an understanding of least squares and related statistical methods without becoming excessively mathematical. It is the outgrowth of more than 30 years of consulting experience with scientists and many years of teaching an applied regression course to graduate students. Applied Regression Analysis serves as an excellent text for a service course on regression for non-statisticians and as a reference for researchers. It also provides a bridge between a two-semester introduction to...
Panel data specifications in nonparametric kernel regression
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Czekaj, Tomasz Gerard; Henningsen, Arne
parametric panel data estimators to analyse the production technology of Polish crop farms. The results of our nonparametric kernel regressions generally differ from the estimates of the parametric models but they only slightly depend on the choice of the kernel functions. Based on economic reasoning, we...
Multiple linear regression analysis
Edwards, T. R.
1980-01-01
Program rapidly selects best-suited set of coefficients. User supplies only vectors of independent and dependent data and specifies confidence level required. Program uses stepwise statistical procedure for relating minimal set of variables to set of observations; final regression contains only most statistically significant coefficients. Program is written in FORTRAN IV for batch execution and has been implemented on NOVA 1200.
Bayesian logistic regression analysis
Van Erp, H.R.N.; Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M.
2012-01-01
In this paper we present a Bayesian logistic regression analysis. It is found that if one wishes to derive the posterior distribution of the probability of some event, then, together with the traditional Bayes Theorem and the integrating out of nuissance parameters, the Jacobian transformation is an
Seber, George A F
2012-01-01
Concise, mathematically clear, and comprehensive treatment of the subject.* Expanded coverage of diagnostics and methods of model fitting.* Requires no specialized knowledge beyond a good grasp of matrix algebra and some acquaintance with straight-line regression and simple analysis of variance models.* More than 200 problems throughout the book plus outline solutions for the exercises.* This revision has been extensively class-tested.
Ritz, Christian; Parmigiani, Giovanni
2009-01-01
R is a rapidly evolving lingua franca of graphical display and statistical analysis of experiments from the applied sciences. This book provides a coherent treatment of nonlinear regression with R by means of examples from a diversity of applied sciences such as biology, chemistry, engineering, medicine and toxicology.
Bounded Gaussian process regression
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Jensen, Bjørn Sand; Nielsen, Jens Brehm; Larsen, Jan
2013-01-01
We extend the Gaussian process (GP) framework for bounded regression by introducing two bounded likelihood functions that model the noise on the dependent variable explicitly. This is fundamentally different from the implicit noise assumption in the previously suggested warped GP framework. We...... with the proposed explicit noise-model extension....
and Multinomial Logistic Regression
African Journals Online (AJOL)
This work presented the results of an experimental comparison of two models: Multinomial Logistic Regression (MLR) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) for classifying students based on their academic performance. The predictive accuracy for each model was measured by their average Classification Correct Rate (CCR).
Mechanisms of neuroblastoma regression
Brodeur, Garrett M.; Bagatell, Rochelle
2014-01-01
Recent genomic and biological studies of neuroblastoma have shed light on the dramatic heterogeneity in the clinical behaviour of this disease, which spans from spontaneous regression or differentiation in some patients, to relentless disease progression in others, despite intensive multimodality therapy. This evidence also suggests several possible mechanisms to explain the phenomena of spontaneous regression in neuroblastomas, including neurotrophin deprivation, humoral or cellular immunity, loss of telomerase activity and alterations in epigenetic regulation. A better understanding of the mechanisms of spontaneous regression might help to identify optimal therapeutic approaches for patients with these tumours. Currently, the most druggable mechanism is the delayed activation of developmentally programmed cell death regulated by the tropomyosin receptor kinase A pathway. Indeed, targeted therapy aimed at inhibiting neurotrophin receptors might be used in lieu of conventional chemotherapy or radiation in infants with biologically favourable tumours that require treatment. Alternative approaches consist of breaking immune tolerance to tumour antigens or activating neurotrophin receptor pathways to induce neuronal differentiation. These approaches are likely to be most effective against biologically favourable tumours, but they might also provide insights into treatment of biologically unfavourable tumours. We describe the different mechanisms of spontaneous neuroblastoma regression and the consequent therapeutic approaches. PMID:25331179
Hydrothermal plume anomalies over the southwest Indian ridge: magmatic control
Yue, X.; Li, H.; Tao, C.; Ren, J.; Zhou, J.; Chen, J.; Chen, S.; Wang, Y.
2017-12-01
Here we firstly reported the extensive survey results of the hydrothermal activity along the ultra-slow spreading southwest Indian ridge (SWIR). The study area is located at segment 27, between the Indomed and Gallieni transform faults, SWIR. The seismic crustal thickness reaches 9.5km in this segment (Li et al., 2015), which is much thicker than normal crustal. The anomaly thickened crust could be affected by the Crozet hotspot or highly focused melt delivery from the mantle. The Duanqiao hydrothermal field was reported at the ridge valley of the segment by Tao et al (2009). The Deep-towed Hydrothermal Detection System (DHDS) was used to collect information related with hydrothermal activity, like temperature, turbidity, oxidation-reduction potential (ORP) and seabed types. There are 15 survey lines at the interval of 2 to 3 km which are occupied about 1300 km2 in segment 27. After processing the raw data, including wiping out random noise points, 5-points moving average processing and subtracting the ambient, we got anomalous Nephelometric Turbidity Units values (ΔNTU). And dE/dt was used to identify the ORP anomalous as the raw data is easily influenced by electrode potentials drifting (Baker et al., 2016). According to the results of water column turbidity and ORP distributions, we confirmed three hydrothermal anomaly fields named A1, A2 and A3. The three fields are all located in the western part of the segment. The A1 field lies on the ridge valley, west side of Duanqiao field. The A2 and A3 field lie on the northern and southern of the ridge valley, respectively. We propose that recent magmatic activity probably focus on the western part of segment 27.And the extensive distribution of hydrothermal plume in the segment is the result of the discrete magma intrusion. References Baker E T, et al. How many vent fields? New estimates of vent field populations on ocean ridges from precise mapping of hydrothermal discharge locations. EPSL, 2016, 449:186-196. Li J
Sulfide geochronlogy along the Southwest Indian Ridge
Yang, W.; Tao, C.; Li, H.; Liang, J.; Liao, S.
2017-12-01
Dragon Flag and Duanqiao hydrothermal field is located between the Indomed and Gallieni fracture zones in the ultraslow-spreading Southwest Indian Ridge (SWIR). Ten subsamples from active and inactive vents of Dragon Flag hydrothermal field and twenty-eight subsamples from Duanqiao hydrothermal field were dated using the 230Th/238U method. Four main episodes of hydrothermal activity of Duanqiao were determined according to the restricted results: 68.9-84.3, 43.9-48.4, 25.3-34.8, and 0.7-17.3 kyrs. Hydrothermal activity of Duanqiao probably started about 84.3 (±0.5) kyrs ago and ceased about 0.737 (±0.023) kyrs ago. And sulfide samples from the nearby Dragon Flag filed at the same time and the results show that the ages of most sulfides from Dragon Flag field range from 1.496(±0.176) to 5.416 (±0.116) kyrs with the oldest age estimated at 15.997 (±0.155) kyrs Münch et al. (2001) reconstructed the evolution history of Mt. Jourdanne hydrothermal field. The age dating results indicate activity in two episodes, at 70-40 and 27-13 kyrs. The hydrothermal activity in Dragon Flag field is much more recent than that of Duanqiao or Mt. Jourdanne fields. The massive sulfides are younger than the sulfides from other hydrothermal fields such as Rainbow, Sonne and Ashadze-2. All these results suggest that hydrothermal activity of Dragon Flag field is much more recent than that of Duanqiao or Mt. Jourdanne fields. Mt. Jourdanne is situated on an axial volcanic ridge which has both volcanic and tectonic activity. This is necessary to develop the heat source and pathways for the fluid convection, which enables the hydrothermal circulation. Hydrothermal activity in Dragon Flag Field is located next to the detachment fault termination. The detachment fault system provides a pathway for hydrothermal convection. Such style of heat source can contribute to continuous hydrothermal activity for over 1000 years. Duanqiao field is located near the central volcano and there is a hot
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gardner, W.L.; Hoffman, D.J.; McCurdy, H.C.; McManamy, T.J.; Moeller, J.A.; Ryan, P.M.
1985-01-01
The rf Test Facility (RFTF) of Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) provides a national facility for the testing and evaluation of steady-state, high-power (approx.1.0-MW) ion cyclotron resonance heating (ICRH) systems and components. The facility consists of a vacuum vessel and two fully tested superconducting development magnets from the ELMO Bumpy Torus Proof-of-Principle (EBT-P) program. These are arranged as a simple mirror with a mirror ratio of 4.8. The axial centerline distance between magnet throat centers is 112 cm. The vacuum vessel cavity has a large port (74 by 163 cm) and a test volume adequate for testing prototypic launchers for Doublet III-D (DIII-D), Tore Supra, and the Tokamak Fusion Test Reactor (TFTR). Attached to the internal vessel walls are water-cooled panels for removing the injected rf power. The magnets are capable of generating a steady-state field of approx.3 T on axis in the magnet throats. Steady-state plasmas are generated in the facility by cyclotron resonance breakdown using a dedicated 200-kW, 28-GHz gyrotron. Available rf sources cover a frequency range of 2 to 200 MHz at 1.5 kW and 3 to 18 MHz at 200 kW, with several sources at intermediate parameters. Available in July 1986 will be a >1.0-MW, cw source spanning 40 to 80 MHz. 5 figs
Li, Bo; Ling, Zongcheng; Zhang, Jiang; Chen, Jian; Ni, Yuheng; Liu, Chunli
2018-04-01
Wrinkle ridges are complex thrust faults commonly found in lunar mare basalts and caused by compressional stresses from both local basin and global Moon. In this paper, we select 59 single wrinkle ridges in Mare Serenitatis and 39 single wrinkle ridges in Mare Tranquillitatis according to WAC mosaic image. For each wrinkle ridge, several topographic profiles near its midpoint are generated to measure its height and maximum displacement (Dmax) through LOLA DEM data. Then we make 2D plots of displacement-length (L) for ridge population in the two maria. The Dmax-L ratios (γ) are derived by a linear fit method according to the D-L data. The γ value (2.13 × 10-2) of ridges in Mare Tranquillitatis is higher than the γ value (1.73 × 10-2) of ridges in Mare Serenitatis. In the last, the contractional strains (ε) in Mare Serenitatis and Mare Tranquillitatis are estimated to be ∼0.36% and 0.14% (assuming the fault plane dip θ is 25°). The values of the free-air gravity anomalies in Mare Serenitatis range from 78 to 358 mGal higher than those of the gravity anomalies in Mare Tranquillitatis which range from -70 to 120 mGal. The average thickness of basalts in Mare Tranquillitatis is 400 m, while that of basalts in Mare Serenitatis is 798 m. Moreover, the average age for ridge group in Mare Serenitatis is bigger than the wrinkle ridge's age in Mare Tranquillitatis. The formation of ridge group in Mare Serenitatis takes longer time than that in Mare Serenitatis. Therefore, we think the higher value of gravity anomalies, thicker basaltic units and longer formation time for wrinkle ridge in Mare Serenitatis maybe result in the higher value of contractional strain, although the formation of Tranquillitatis basin is earlier than that of Serenitatis basin.
Carbon isotopes and concentrations in mid-oceanic ridge basalts
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Pineau, F.; Javoy, M.
1983-01-01
In order to estimate carbon fluxes at mid-ocean ridges and carbon isotopic compositions in the convective mantle, we have studied carbon concentrations and isotopic compositions in tholeiitic glasses from the FAMOUS zone (Mid-Atlantic Ridge at 36 0 N) and East Pacific Rise from 21 0 N (RITA zone) to 20 0 S. These samples correspond essentially to the whole spectrum of spreading rates (2-16 cm/yr). The contain: -CO 2 vesicles in various quantities (3-220 ppm C) with delta 13 C between -4 and -9per mille relative to PDB, in the range of carbonatites and diamonds. - Carbonate carbon (3-100 ppm C) with delta 13 C between -2.6 and -20.0per mille relative to PDB. - Dissolved carbon at a concentration of 170+-10 ppm under 250 bar pressure with delta 13 C from -9 to -21per mille relative to PDB. This dissolved carbon, not contained in large CO 2 vesicles, corresponds to a variety of chemical forms among which part of the above carbonates, microscopic CO 2 bubbles and graphite. The lightest portions of this dissolved carbon are extracted at low temperatures (400-600 0 C) whereas the CO 2 from the vesicles is extracted near fusion temperature. These features can be explained by outgassing processes in two steps from the source region of the magma: (1) equilibrium outgassing before the second percolation threshold, where micron size bubbles are continuously reequilibrated with the magma; (2) distillation after the second percolation threshold when larger bubbles travel faster than magma concentrations to the surface. The second step may begin at different depths apparently related to the spreading rate, shallower for fast-spreading ridges than for slow-spreading ridges. (orig./WL)
Better Autologistic Regression
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mark A. Wolters
2017-11-01
Full Text Available Autologistic regression is an important probability model for dichotomous random variables observed along with covariate information. It has been used in various fields for analyzing binary data possessing spatial or network structure. The model can be viewed as an extension of the autologistic model (also known as the Ising model, quadratic exponential binary distribution, or Boltzmann machine to include covariates. It can also be viewed as an extension of logistic regression to handle responses that are not independent. Not all authors use exactly the same form of the autologistic regression model. Variations of the model differ in two respects. First, the variable coding—the two numbers used to represent the two possible states of the variables—might differ. Common coding choices are (zero, one and (minus one, plus one. Second, the model might appear in either of two algebraic forms: a standard form, or a recently proposed centered form. Little attention has been paid to the effect of these differences, and the literature shows ambiguity about their importance. It is shown here that changes to either coding or centering in fact produce distinct, non-nested probability models. Theoretical results, numerical studies, and analysis of an ecological data set all show that the differences among the models can be large and practically significant. Understanding the nature of the differences and making appropriate modeling choices can lead to significantly improved autologistic regression analyses. The results strongly suggest that the standard model with plus/minus coding, which we call the symmetric autologistic model, is the most natural choice among the autologistic variants.
Regression in organizational leadership.
Kernberg, O F
1979-02-01
The choice of good leaders is a major task for all organizations. Inforamtion regarding the prospective administrator's personality should complement questions regarding his previous experience, his general conceptual skills, his technical knowledge, and the specific skills in the area for which he is being selected. The growing psychoanalytic knowledge about the crucial importance of internal, in contrast to external, object relations, and about the mutual relationships of regression in individuals and in groups, constitutes an important practical tool for the selection of leaders.
Classification and regression trees
Breiman, Leo; Olshen, Richard A; Stone, Charles J
1984-01-01
The methodology used to construct tree structured rules is the focus of this monograph. Unlike many other statistical procedures, which moved from pencil and paper to calculators, this text's use of trees was unthinkable before computers. Both the practical and theoretical sides have been developed in the authors' study of tree methods. Classification and Regression Trees reflects these two sides, covering the use of trees as a data analysis method, and in a more mathematical framework, proving some of their fundamental properties.
Robust Multiple Linear Regression.
1982-12-01
difficulty, but it might have more solutions corresponding to local minima. Influence Function of M-Estimates The influence function describes the effect...distributionn n function. In case of M-Estimates the influence function was found to be pro- portional to and given as T(X F)) " C(xpF,T) = .(X.T(F) F(dx...where the inverse of any distribution function F is defined in the usual way as F- (s) = inf{x IF(x) > s) 0<sə Influence Function of L-Estimates In a
Hilbe, Joseph M
2009-01-01
This book really does cover everything you ever wanted to know about logistic regression … with updates available on the author's website. Hilbe, a former national athletics champion, philosopher, and expert in astronomy, is a master at explaining statistical concepts and methods. Readers familiar with his other expository work will know what to expect-great clarity.The book provides considerable detail about all facets of logistic regression. No step of an argument is omitted so that the book will meet the needs of the reader who likes to see everything spelt out, while a person familiar with some of the topics has the option to skip "obvious" sections. The material has been thoroughly road-tested through classroom and web-based teaching. … The focus is on helping the reader to learn and understand logistic regression. The audience is not just students meeting the topic for the first time, but also experienced users. I believe the book really does meet the author's goal … .-Annette J. Dobson, Biometric...
Magdalena Ridge Observatory Interferometer: Status Update
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Creech-Eakman, M. J; Bakker, E. J; Buscher, D. F; Coleman, T. A; Haniff, C. A; Jurgenson, C. A; Klinglesmith, III, D. A; Parameswariah, C. B; Romero, V. D; Shtromberg, A. V; Young, J. S
2006-01-01
The Magdalena Ridge Observatory Interferometer (MROI) is a ten element optical and near-infrared imaging interferometer being built in the Magdalena mountains west of Socorro, NM at an altitude of 3230 m...