WorldWideScience

Sample records for revisited causal approaches

  1. Revisiting the Granger Causality Relationship between Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in China: A Multi-Timescale Decomposition Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lei Jiang

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The past four decades have witnessed rapid growth in the rate of energy consumption in China. A great deal of energy consumption has led to two major issues. One is energy shortages and the other is environmental pollution caused by fossil fuel combustion. Since energy saving plays a substantial role in addressing both issues, it is of vital importance to study the intrinsic characteristics of energy consumption and its relationship with economic growth. The topic of the nexus between energy consumption and economic growth has been hotly debated for years. However, conflicting conclusions have been drawn. In this paper, we provide a novel insight into the characteristics of the growth rate of energy consumption in China from a multi-timescale perspective by means of adaptive time-frequency data analysis; namely, the ensemble empirical mode decomposition method, which is suitable for the analysis of non-linear time series. Decomposition led to four intrinsic mode function (IMF components and a trend component with different periods. Then, we repeated the same procedure for the growth rate of China’s GDP and obtained four similar IMF components and a trend component. In the second stage, we performed the Granger causality test. The results demonstrated that, in the short run, there was a bidirectional causality relationship between economic growth and energy consumption, and in the long run a unidirectional relationship running from economic growth to energy consumption.

  2. Causality in the semantics of Esterel : revisited

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mousavi, M.R.; Klin, B.; Sobocinski, P.

    2010-01-01

    We re-examine the challenges concerning causality in the semantics of Esterel and show that they pertain to the known issues in the semantics of Structured Operational Semantics with negative premises. We show that the solutions offered for the semantics of SOS also provide answers to the semantic

  3. [Causal analysis approaches in epidemiology].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dumas, O; Siroux, V; Le Moual, N; Varraso, R

    2014-02-01

    Epidemiological research is mostly based on observational studies. Whether such studies can provide evidence of causation remains discussed. Several causal analysis methods have been developed in epidemiology. This paper aims at presenting an overview of these methods: graphical models, path analysis and its extensions, and models based on the counterfactual approach, with a special emphasis on marginal structural models. Graphical approaches have been developed to allow synthetic representations of supposed causal relationships in a given problem. They serve as qualitative support in the study of causal relationships. The sufficient-component cause model has been developed to deal with the issue of multicausality raised by the emergence of chronic multifactorial diseases. Directed acyclic graphs are mostly used as a visual tool to identify possible confounding sources in a study. Structural equations models, the main extension of path analysis, combine a system of equations and a path diagram, representing a set of possible causal relationships. They allow quantifying direct and indirect effects in a general model in which several relationships can be tested simultaneously. Dynamic path analysis further takes into account the role of time. The counterfactual approach defines causality by comparing the observed event and the counterfactual event (the event that would have been observed if, contrary to the fact, the subject had received a different exposure than the one he actually received). This theoretical approach has shown limits of traditional methods to address some causality questions. In particular, in longitudinal studies, when there is time-varying confounding, classical methods (regressions) may be biased. Marginal structural models have been developed to address this issue. In conclusion, "causal models", though they were developed partly independently, are based on equivalent logical foundations. A crucial step in the application of these models is the

  4. Network and system diagrams revisited: Satisfying CEA requirements for causality analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perdicoulis, Anastassios; Piper, Jake

    2008-01-01

    Published guidelines for Cumulative Effects Assessment (CEA) have called for the identification of cause-and-effect relationships, or causality, challenging researchers to identify methods that can possibly meet CEA's specific requirements. Together with an outline of these requirements from CEA key literature, the various definitions of cumulative effects point to the direction of a method for causality analysis that is visually-oriented and qualitative. This article consequently revisits network and system diagrams, resolves their reported shortcomings, and extends their capabilities with causal loop diagramming methodology. The application of the resulting composite causality analysis method to three Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) case studies appears to satisfy the specific requirements of CEA regarding causality. Three 'moments' are envisaged for the use of the proposed method: during the scoping stage, during the assessment process, and during the stakeholder participation process

  5. Revisiting Aristotle's causality: model for development in Nigeria ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Thus, the development equation must be balanced. Aristotle‟s theory of causality balances the equation. Since Aristotle has no theory of development therefore every individual, nation or industry in pursuit of development should seek to drive economic growth and human capital development together rather than focus on ...

  6. The causal perturbation expansion revisited: Rescaling the interacting Dirac sea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Finster, Felix; Grotz, Andreas

    2010-01-01

    The causal perturbation expansion defines the Dirac sea in the presence of a time-dependent external field. It yields an operator whose image generalizes the vacuum solutions of negative energy and thus gives a canonical splitting of the solution space into two subspaces. After giving a self-contained introduction to the ideas and techniques, we show that this operator is, in general, not idempotent. We modify the standard construction by a rescaling procedure giving a projector on the generalized negative-energy subspace. The resulting rescaled causal perturbation expansion uniquely defines the fermionic projector in terms of a series of distributional solutions of the Dirac equation. The technical core of the paper is to work out the combinatorics of the expansion in detail. It is also shown that the fermionic projector with interaction can be obtained from the free projector by a unitary transformation. We finally analyze the consequences of the rescaling procedure on the light-cone expansion.

  7. The causal perturbation expansion revisited: Rescaling the interacting Dirac sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finster, Felix; Grotz, Andreas

    2010-07-01

    The causal perturbation expansion defines the Dirac sea in the presence of a time-dependent external field. It yields an operator whose image generalizes the vacuum solutions of negative energy and thus gives a canonical splitting of the solution space into two subspaces. After giving a self-contained introduction to the ideas and techniques, we show that this operator is, in general, not idempotent. We modify the standard construction by a rescaling procedure giving a projector on the generalized negative-energy subspace. The resulting rescaled causal perturbation expansion uniquely defines the fermionic projector in terms of a series of distributional solutions of the Dirac equation. The technical core of the paper is to work out the combinatorics of the expansion in detail. It is also shown that the fermionic projector with interaction can be obtained from the free projector by a unitary transformation. We finally analyze the consequences of the rescaling procedure on the light-cone expansion.

  8. Causality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearl, Judea

    2000-03-01

    Written by one of the pre-eminent researchers in the field, this book provides a comprehensive exposition of modern analysis of causation. It shows how causality has grown from a nebulous concept into a mathematical theory with significant applications in the fields of statistics, artificial intelligence, philosophy, cognitive science, and the health and social sciences. Pearl presents a unified account of the probabilistic, manipulative, counterfactual and structural approaches to causation, and devises simple mathematical tools for analyzing the relationships between causal connections, statistical associations, actions and observations. The book will open the way for including causal analysis in the standard curriculum of statistics, artifical intelligence, business, epidemiology, social science and economics. Students in these areas will find natural models, simple identification procedures, and precise mathematical definitions of causal concepts that traditional texts have tended to evade or make unduly complicated. This book will be of interest to professionals and students in a wide variety of fields. Anyone who wishes to elucidate meaningful relationships from data, predict effects of actions and policies, assess explanations of reported events, or form theories of causal understanding and causal speech will find this book stimulating and invaluable.

  9. A General Approach to Causal Mediation Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Imai, Kosuke; Keele, Luke; Tingley, Dustin

    2010-01-01

    Traditionally in the social sciences, causal mediation analysis has been formulated, understood, and implemented within the framework of linear structural equation models. We argue and demonstrate that this is problematic for 3 reasons: the lack of a general definition of causal mediation effects independent of a particular statistical model, the…

  10. Delinquency among pathological gamblers: A causal approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyer, G; Fabian, T

    1992-03-01

    In a comprehensive research project on gamblers in self-help groups in West Germany one object of investigation was the question of whether or not pathological gambling has a criminogenic effect. 54.5% of the 437 members of Gamblers Anonymous interviewed stated that they had committed illegal actions in order to obtain money for gambling. Comparisons of this sub-group with those interviewees who did not admit having committed criminal offences show distinct differences: Those who admitted illegal action were more excessive in their gambling behavior and experienced a higher degree of subjective satisfaction through gambling. They also showed a more pronounced problem behavior and more psychosocial problems because of gambling. A multiple regression within the framework of path analysis was computed in order to explore causal links between pathological gambling and delinquency. The results support the hypothesis that pathological gambling can lead to delinquent behavior. Forensic implications are discussed.

  11. A Bayesian nonparametric approach to causal inference on quantiles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Dandan; Daniels, Michael J; Winterstein, Almut G

    2018-02-25

    We propose a Bayesian nonparametric approach (BNP) for causal inference on quantiles in the presence of many confounders. In particular, we define relevant causal quantities and specify BNP models to avoid bias from restrictive parametric assumptions. We first use Bayesian additive regression trees (BART) to model the propensity score and then construct the distribution of potential outcomes given the propensity score using a Dirichlet process mixture (DPM) of normals model. We thoroughly evaluate the operating characteristics of our approach and compare it to Bayesian and frequentist competitors. We use our approach to answer an important clinical question involving acute kidney injury using electronic health records. © 2018, The International Biometric Society.

  12. Moment problems and the causal set approach to quantum gravity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ash, Avner; McDonald, Patrick

    2003-01-01

    We study a collection of discrete Markov chains related to the causal set approach to modeling discrete theories of quantum gravity. The transition probabilities of these chains satisfy a general covariance principle, a causality principle, and a renormalizability condition. The corresponding dynamics are completely determined by a sequence of non-negative real coupling constants. Using techniques related to the classical moment problem, we give a complete description of any such sequence of coupling constants. We prove a representation theorem: every discrete theory of quantum gravity arising from causal set dynamics satisfying covariance, causality, and renormalizability corresponds to a unique probability distribution function on the non-negative real numbers, with the coupling constants defining the theory given by the moments of the distribution

  13. The causal approach in quantum field theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grigore, D. R.

    2003-01-01

    The mathematical formulation of perturbative renormalization theory starts from Bogoliubov axioms imposed on the S-matrix (or equivalently on the chronological products). The S-matrix is a formal series of operator valued distributions: these distributions are denoted by T(x 1 , ... , x n ) and one supposes that they act in the Fock space of some collection of free fields. These operator-valued distributions are called chronological products. The expression T(x) is called the interaction Lagrangian. It is convenient to construct more general objects namely, the operator-valued distributions T(W 1 (x 1 ), ... ,W n (x n )), where W j are arbitrary Wick monomials. These objects verify some properties (following from Bogolyubov axioms) and express the following properties: the initial condition, skew-symmetry in all arguments, Poincare invariance, causality and unitarity. The existence of solutions follows from the analysis of Epstein and Glaser as a recursive procedure using in an essential way the causality axiom. Sometimes it is possible to supplement these axioms by other invariance properties with respect to space-time symmetries (inversions and/or scale invariance), charge conjugation, global symmetry with respect to some internal symmetry group, supersymmetric invariance, etc. if they are valid for the interaction Lagrangian. In the literature, the invariance properties of the chronological products with respect to scale invariance was analyzed in detail. The scale invariance operators U λ are transforming field operators corresponding to particles of masses m j in fields corresponding to scaled masses λ -1 m j . One can prove that if all masses are positive the chronological products can be normalized such that they are scale invariant. On the contrary, if all masses of the model are zero then the scale invariance of the chronological products can be implemented only up to some logarithmic terms in λ. For models describing higher spin particles unphysical

  14. The coordinate coherent states approach revisited

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miao, Yan-Gang; Zhang, Shao-Jun

    2013-01-01

    We revisit the coordinate coherent states approach through two different quantization procedures in the quantum field theory on the noncommutative Minkowski plane. The first procedure, which is based on the normal commutation relation between an annihilation and creation operators, deduces that a point mass can be described by a Gaussian function instead of the usual Dirac delta function. However, we argue this specific quantization by adopting the canonical one (based on the canonical commutation relation between a field and its conjugate momentum) and show that a point mass should still be described by the Dirac delta function, which implies that the concept of point particles is still valid when we deal with the noncommutativity by following the coordinate coherent states approach. In order to investigate the dependence on quantization procedures, we apply the two quantization procedures to the Unruh effect and Hawking radiation and find that they give rise to significantly different results. Under the first quantization procedure, the Unruh temperature and Unruh spectrum are not deformed by noncommutativity, but the Hawking temperature is deformed by noncommutativity while the radiation specturm is untack. However, under the second quantization procedure, the Unruh temperature and Hawking temperature are untack but the both spectra are modified by an effective greybody (deformed) factor. - Highlights: ► Suggest a canonical quantization in the coordinate coherent states approach. ► Prove the validity of the concept of point particles. ► Apply the canonical quantization to the Unruh effect and Hawking radiation. ► Find no deformations in the Unruh temperature and Hawking temperature. ► Provide the modified spectra of the Unruh effect and Hawking radiation.

  15. Causal approach to (2+1)-dimensional Quantum Electrodynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scharf, G.; Wreszinski, W.F.; Pimentel, B.M.; Tomazelli, J.L.

    1993-05-01

    It is shown that the causal approach to (2+1)-dimensional quantum electrodynamics yields a well-defined perturbative theory. In particular, and in contrast to renormalized perturbative quantum field theory, it is free of any ambiguities and ascribes a nonzero value to the dynamically generated, nonperturbative photon mass. (author). 12 refs

  16. Energy-GDP relationship revisited: An example from GCC countries using panel causality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Al-Iriani, Mahmoud A.

    2006-01-01

    This work investigates the causality relationship between gross domestic product (GDP) and energy consumption in the six countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). Recently developed panel cointegration and causality techniques are used to uncover the direction of energy-GDP causality in the GCC. Empirical results indicate a unidirectional causality running from GDP to energy consumption. Evidence shows no support for the hypothesis that energy consumption is the source of GDP growth in the GCC countries. Such results suggest that energy conservation policies may be adopted without much concern about their adverse effects on the growth of GCC economies

  17. Revisited

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tegtmeier, Silke; Meyer, Verena; Pakura, Stefanie

    2017-01-01

    were captured when they described entrepreneurs. Therefore, this paper aims to revisit gender role stereotypes among young adults. Design/methodology/approach: To measure stereotyping, participants were asked to describe entrepreneurs in general and either women or men in general. The Schein......Purpose: Entrepreneurship is shaped by a male norm, which has been widely demonstrated in qualitative studies. The authors strive to complement these methods by a quantitative approach. First, gender role stereotypes were measured in entrepreneurship. Second, the explicit notions of participants......: The images of men and entrepreneurs show a high and significant congruence (r = 0.803), mostly in those adjectives that are untypical for men and entrepreneurs. The congruence of women and entrepreneurs was low (r = 0.152) and insignificant. Contrary to the participants’ beliefs, their explicit notions did...

  18. Darwin revisited: The vagus nerve is a causal element in controlling recognition of other's emotions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colzato, Lorenza S; Sellaro, Roberta; Beste, Christian

    2017-07-01

    Charles Darwin proposed that via the vagus nerve, the tenth cranial nerve, emotional facial expressions are evolved, adaptive and serve a crucial communicative function. In line with this idea, the later-developed polyvagal theory assumes that the vagus nerve is the key phylogenetic substrate that regulates emotional and social behavior. The polyvagal theory assumes that optimal social interaction, which includes the recognition of emotion in faces, is modulated by the vagus nerve. So far, in humans, it has not yet been demonstrated that the vagus plays a causal role in emotion recognition. To investigate this we employed transcutaneous vagus nerve stimulation (tVNS), a novel non-invasive brain stimulation technique that modulates brain activity via bottom-up mechanisms. A sham/placebo-controlled, randomized cross-over within-subjects design was used to infer a causal relation between the stimulated vagus nerve and the related ability to recognize emotions as indexed by the Reading the Mind in the Eyes Test in 38 healthy young volunteers. Active tVNS, compared to sham stimulation, enhanced emotion recognition for easy items, suggesting that it promoted the ability to decode salient social cues. Our results confirm that the vagus nerve is causally involved in emotion recognition, supporting Darwin's argumentation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. The causality relationship between energy consumption and GDP in G-11 countries revisited

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, C.-C.

    2006-01-01

    This paper explores whether energy conservation policies can be implemented in countries with the same level of development. That is, is restraining energy consumption without compromising economic growth feasible in all industrialized countries? A new Granger non-causality testing procedure developed by Toda and Yamamoto [1995, Journal of Econometrics 66, 225-250] is applied to re-investigate the relationship, if any, between energy consumption and income in 11 major industrialized countries. The results clearly do not support the view that energy consumption and income are neutral with respect to each other, except in the case of the United Kingdom, Germany and Sweden where a neutral relationship is found. Bi-directional causality in the United States and uni-directional running from energy consumption to GDP in Canada, Belgium, the Netherlands and Switzerland are found. This indicates that energy conservation may hinder economic growth in the latter five countries. Further, the causality relationship appears to be uni-directional but reversed for France, Italy and Japan which implies that, in these three countries, energy conservation may be viable without being detrimental to economic growth

  20. Revisiting the causal nexus between savings and economic growth in India: An empirical analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suresh Kumar Patra

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper attempts to analyze the long run association between savings and growth; and investigates the causality issue in Indian context for the period 1950–51 to 2011–12. Firstly, the study identifies the structural break in the year 1980 by employing Bi-Perron test with unknown time. Further, it examines the association and the direction of causality between savings and real economic activity. The empirical evidence of the study suggests that savings boost the real activity both in the pre and post break period in the long run, while economic growth causes saving in the short run in the pre break period. Thus, the present study brings evidence in favour of the neoclassical exogenous and the post-neoclassical endogenous growth models and suggest that both the incentive-based measures and the productivity-based measures would be useful to generate higher savings and reinforce the acceleration of income and growth. JEL classification: E21, O4, C22, Keywords: Savings, Economic growth, Structural break, Palavras-chave: Poupança, Ggrowth econômico, Ruptura estrutural

  1. Robust, Causal, and Incremental Approaches to Investigating Linguistic Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, Seán G.

    2018-01-01

    This paper discusses the maximum robustness approach for studying cases of adaptation in language. We live in an age where we have more data on more languages than ever before, and more data to link it with from other domains. This should make it easier to test hypotheses involving adaptation, and also to spot new patterns that might be explained by adaptation. However, there is not much discussion of the overall approach to research in this area. There are outstanding questions about how to formalize theories, what the criteria are for directing research and how to integrate results from different methods into a clear assessment of a hypothesis. This paper addresses some of those issues by suggesting an approach which is causal, incremental and robust. It illustrates the approach with reference to a recent claim that dry environments select against the use of precise contrasts in pitch. Study 1 replicates a previous analysis of the link between humidity and lexical tone with an alternative dataset and finds that it is not robust. Study 2 performs an analysis with a continuous measure of tone and finds no significant correlation. Study 3 addresses a more recent analysis of the link between humidity and vowel use and finds that it is robust, though the effect size is small and the robustness of the measurement of vowel use is low. Methodological robustness of the general theory is addressed by suggesting additional approaches including iterated learning, a historical case study, corpus studies, and studying individual speech. PMID:29515487

  2. A developmental approach to learning causal models for cyber security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mugan, Jonathan

    2013-05-01

    To keep pace with our adversaries, we must expand the scope of machine learning and reasoning to address the breadth of possible attacks. One approach is to employ an algorithm to learn a set of causal models that describes the entire cyber network and each host end node. Such a learning algorithm would run continuously on the system and monitor activity in real time. With a set of causal models, the algorithm could anticipate novel attacks, take actions to thwart them, and predict the second-order effects flood of information, and the algorithm would have to determine which streams of that flood were relevant in which situations. This paper will present the results of efforts toward the application of a developmental learning algorithm to the problem of cyber security. The algorithm is modeled on the principles of human developmental learning and is designed to allow an agent to learn about the computer system in which it resides through active exploration. Children are flexible learners who acquire knowledge by actively exploring their environment and making predictions about what they will find,1, 2 and our algorithm is inspired by the work of the developmental psychologist Jean Piaget.3 Piaget described how children construct knowledge in stages and learn new concepts on top of those they already know. Developmental learning allows our algorithm to focus on subsets of the environment that are most helpful for learning given its current knowledge. In experiments, the algorithm was able to learn the conditions for file exfiltration and use that knowledge to protect sensitive files.

  3. An Information Processing Approach to Children's Causal Reasoning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siegler, Robert S.

    This paper questions evidence for the thesis that causal reasoning of older children is more logical than that of younger ones, and describes two experiments which attempted to determine (1) whether there are true developmental differences in causal reasoning, and (2) what explanations for developmental differences can be supported. In the first…

  4. Circular codes revisited: a statistical approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonzalez, D L; Giannerini, S; Rosa, R

    2011-04-21

    In 1996 Arquès and Michel [1996. A complementary circular code in the protein coding genes. J. Theor. Biol. 182, 45-58] discovered the existence of a common circular code in eukaryote and prokaryote genomes. Since then, circular code theory has provoked great interest and underwent a rapid development. In this paper we discuss some theoretical issues related to the synchronization properties of coding sequences and circular codes with particular emphasis on the problem of retrieval and maintenance of the reading frame. Motivated by the theoretical discussion, we adopt a rigorous statistical approach in order to try to answer different questions. First, we investigate the covering capability of the whole class of 216 self-complementary, C(3) maximal codes with respect to a large set of coding sequences. The results indicate that, on average, the code proposed by Arquès and Michel has the best covering capability but, still, there exists a great variability among sequences. Second, we focus on such code and explore the role played by the proportion of the bases by means of a hierarchy of permutation tests. The results show the existence of a sort of optimization mechanism such that coding sequences are tailored as to maximize or minimize the coverage of circular codes on specific reading frames. Such optimization clearly relates the function of circular codes with reading frame synchronization. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Renormalization group approach to causal bulk viscous cosmological models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Belinchon, J A; Harko, T; Mak, M K

    2002-01-01

    The renormalization group method is applied to the study of homogeneous and flat Friedmann-Robertson-Walker type universes, filled with a causal bulk viscous cosmological fluid. The starting point of the study is the consideration of the scaling properties of the gravitational field equations, the causal evolution equation of the bulk viscous pressure and the equations of state. The requirement of scale invariance imposes strong constraints on the temporal evolution of the bulk viscosity coefficient, temperature and relaxation time, thus leading to the possibility of obtaining the bulk viscosity coefficient-energy density dependence. For a cosmological model with bulk viscosity coefficient proportional to the Hubble parameter, we perform the analysis of the renormalization group flow around the scale-invariant fixed point, thereby obtaining the long-time behaviour of the scale factor

  6. Causality between regional stock markets: A frequency domain approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gradojević Nikola

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Using a data set from five regional stock exchanges (Serbia, Croatia, Slovenia, Hungary and Germany, this paper presents a frequency domain analysis of a causal relationship between the returns on the CROBEX, SBITOP, CETOP and DAX indices, and the return on the major Serbian stock exchange index, BELEX 15. We find evidence of a somewhat dominant effect of the CROBEX and CETOP stock indices on the BELEX 15 stock index across a range of frequencies. The results also indicate that the BELEX 15 index and the SBITOP index interact in a bi-directional causal fashion. Finally, the DAX index movements consistently drive the BELEX 15 index returns for cycle lengths between 3 and 11 days without any feedback effect.

  7. Scientific realism in particle physics a causal approach

    CERN Document Server

    Egg, Matthias

    2014-01-01

    Does particle physics really describe the basic constituents of the material world or is it just a useful tool for deriving empirical predictions? This book proposes a novel answer to that question, emphasizing the importance of causal reasoning for the justification of scientific claims. It thereby responds to general worries about scientific realism as well as to more specific challenges stemming from the interpretation of quantum physics.

  8. Causal Relationships in the Balanced Scorecard: A Path Analysis Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Yael Perlman

    2013-01-01

    We use path analysis to identify causal relationships between different performance measures in each of the four perspectives defined in the balanced scorecard and examine the influence of time lag on relationships between perspectives. We analyze performance data from a real high-tech company. Our results point to a direct relationship between leading measures in the learning and growth perspective and lagging measures in the financial perspective. Our findings also support the existence of ...

  9. An Adaptive and Hybrid Approach for Revisiting the Visibility Pipeline

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ícaro Lins Leitão da Cunha

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available We revisit the visibility problem, which is traditionally known in Computer Graphics and Vision fields as the process of computing a (potentially visible set of primitives in the computational model of a scene. We propose a hybrid solution that uses a dry structure (in the sense of data reduction, a triangulation of the type J1a, to accelerate the task of searching for visible primitives. We came up with a solution that is useful for real-time, on-line, interactive applications as 3D visualization. In such applications the main goal is to load the minimum amount of primitives from the scene during the rendering stage, as possible. For this purpose, our algorithm executes the culling by using a hybrid paradigm based on viewing-frustum, back-face culling and occlusion models. Results have shown substantial improvement over these traditional approaches if applied separately. This novel approach can be used in devices with no dedicated processors or with low processing power, as cell phones or embedded displays, or to visualize data through the Internet, as in virtual museums applications.

  10. Could Plasmodium vivax malaria trigger malnutrition? Revisiting the Bradford Hill criteria to assess a causal relationship between two neglected problems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wuelton Marcelo Monteiro

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract: The benign characteristics formerly attributed to Plasmodium vivax infections have recently changed owing to the increasing number of reports of severe vivax malaria resulting in a broad spectrum of clinical complications, probably including undernutrition. Causal inference is a complex process, and arriving at a tentative inference of the causal or non-causal nature of an association is a subjective process limited by the existing evidence. Applying classical epidemiology principles, such as the Bradford Hill criteria, may help foster an understanding of causality and lead to appropriate interventions being proposed that may improve quality of life and decrease morbidity in neglected populations. Here, we examined these criteria in the context of the available data suggesting that vivax malaria may substantially contribute to childhood malnutrition. We found the data supported a role for P. vivax in the etiology of undernutrition in endemic areas. Thus, the application of modern causal inference tools, in future studies, may be useful in determining causation.

  11. Renewable energy consumption and economic growth in nine OECD countries: bounds test approach and causality analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hung-Pin, Lin

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to investigate the short-run and long-run causality between renewable energy (RE) consumption and economic growth (EG) in nine OECD countries from the period between 1982 and 2011. To examine the linkage, this paper uses the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach of cointegration test and vector error-correction models to test the causal relationship between variables. The co-integration and causal relationships are found in five countries-United States of America (USA), Japan, Germany, Italy, and United Kingdom (UK). The overall results indicate that (1) a short-run unidirectional causality runs from EG to RE in Italy and UK; (2) long-run unidirectional causalities run from RE to EG for Germany, Italy, and UK; (3) a long-run unidirectional causality runs from EG to RE in USA, and Japan; (4) both long-run and strong unidirectional causalities run from RE to EG for Germany and UK; and (5) Finally, both long-run and strong unidirectional causalities run from EG to RE in only USA. Further evidence reveals that policies for renewable energy conservation may have no impact on economic growth in France, Denmark, Portugal, and Spain.

  12. The Causality between Government Expenditure and Economic Growth in Nigeria: A Toda-Yamamoto Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Adebayo Ajayi

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The relationship between government expenditure and economic growth has been an issue of debate over the years. This study investigates the causality between government expenditure and economic growth in Nigeria between 1985 and 2014. Following the Toda-Yamamoto non-Granger causality testing approach, it finds that government expenditure and economic growth have no causal effect on each other. This offers evidence to invalidate Wagner’s law and the Keynesian proposition in Nigeria. This study recommends that government should strengthen its efforts to curtail corruption as well as introduce stricter checks and controls to reduce or eliminate the profligacy of public funds.

  13. Electricity consumption and economic growth nexus in Portugal using cointegration and causality approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shahbaz, Muhammad; Tang, Chor Foon; Shahbaz Shabbir, Muhammad

    2011-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to re-examine the relationship between electricity consumption, economic growth, and employment in Portugal using the cointegration and Granger causality frameworks. This study covers the sample period from 1971 to 2009. We examine the presence of a long-run equilibrium relationship using the bounds testing approach to cointegration within the Unrestricted Error-Correction Model (UECM). Moreover, we examine the direction of causality between electricity consumption, economic growth, and employment in Portugal using the Granger causality test within the Vector Error-Correction Model (VECM). As a summary of the empirical findings, we find that electricity consumption, economic growth, and employment in Portugal are cointegrated and there is bi-directional Granger causality between the three variables in the long-run. With the exception of the Granger causality between electricity consumption and economic growth, the rest of the variables are also bi-directional Granger causality in the short-run. Furthermore, we find that there is unidirectional Granger causality running from economic growth to electricity consumption, but no evidence of reversal causality. - Highlights: → We re-examine the relationship between electricity consumption, economic growth, and employment in Portugal. → The electricity consumption and economic growth is causing each other in the long-run. → In the short-run, economic growth Granger-cause electricity consumption, but no evidence of reversal causality. → Energy conservation policy will deteriorate the process of economic growth in the long-run. → Portugal should increase investment on R and D to design new energy savings technology.

  14. Exploring manual asymmetries during grasping: a dynamic causal modeling approach.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chiara eBegliomini

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Recording of neural activity during grasping actions in macaques showed that grasp-related sensorimotor transformations are accomplished in a circuit constituted by the anterior part of the intraparietal sulcus (AIP, the ventral (F5 and the dorsal (F2 region of the premotor area. In humans, neuroimaging studies have revealed the existence of a similar circuit, involving the putative homolog of macaque areas AIP, F5 and F2. These studies have mainly considered grasping movements performed with the right dominant hand and only a few studies have measured brain activity associated with a movement performed with the left non-dominant hand. As a consequence of this gap, how the brain controls for grasping movement performed with the dominant and the non-dominant hand still represents an open question. A functional resonance imaging experiment (fMRI has been conducted, and effective connectivity (Dynamic Causal Modelling, DCM was used to assess how connectivity among grasping-related areas is modulated by hand (i.e., left and right during the execution of grasping movements towards a small object requiring precision grasping. Results underlined boosted inter-hemispheric couplings between dorsal premotor cortices during the execution of movements performed with the left rather than the right dominant hand. More specifically, they suggest that the dorsal premotor cortices may play a fundamental role in monitoring the configuration of fingers when grasping movements are performed by either the right and the left hand. This role becomes particularly evident when the hand less-skilled (i.e., the left hand to perform such action is utilized. The results are discussed in light of recent theories put forward to explain how parieto-frontal connectivity is modulated by the execution of prehensile movements.

  15. A Systematic Approach to Cultural Explanations of War: Tracing Causal Processes in Two West African Insurgencies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Richards, P.

    2011-01-01

    Many accounts of cultural factors in armed conflicts are dependent on circumstantial details. Alternative quantitative approaches suffer from confusion of correlation and cause. This paper describes and exemplifies a third approach to the analysis of cultural factors in war—causal process tracing.

  16. Model selection approach suggests causal association between 25-hydroxyvitamin D and colorectal cancer.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lina Zgaga

    Full Text Available Vitamin D deficiency has been associated with increased risk of colorectal cancer (CRC, but causal relationship has not yet been confirmed. We investigate the direction of causation between vitamin D and CRC by extending the conventional approaches to allow pleiotropic relationships and by explicitly modelling unmeasured confounders.Plasma 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25-OHD, genetic variants associated with 25-OHD and CRC, and other relevant information was available for 2645 individuals (1057 CRC cases and 1588 controls and included in the model. We investigate whether 25-OHD is likely to be causally associated with CRC, or vice versa, by selecting the best modelling hypothesis according to Bayesian predictive scores. We examine consistency for a range of prior assumptions.Model comparison showed preference for the causal association between low 25-OHD and CRC over the reverse causal hypothesis. This was confirmed for posterior mean deviances obtained for both models (11.5 natural log units in favour of the causal model, and also for deviance information criteria (DIC computed for a range of prior distributions. Overall, models ignoring hidden confounding or pleiotropy had significantly poorer DIC scores.Results suggest causal association between 25-OHD and colorectal cancer, and support the need for randomised clinical trials for further confirmations.

  17. Sustainability Reporting Experience by Universities: A Causal Configuration Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zorio-Grima, Ana; Sierra-García, Laura; Garcia-Benau, Maria A.

    2018-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this research is to identify the combinations of factors leading to experience in sustainability reporting by Spanish public universities. Design/methodology/approach: Using a sample of 49 public universities in Spain, this paper identifies the combinations of factors on innovation profile, political and internal factors…

  18. Approach to the nonrelatiVistic scattering theory based on the causality superposition and unitarity principles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gajnutdinov, R.Kh.

    1983-01-01

    Possibility is studied to build the nonrelativistic scattering theory on the base of the general physical principles: causality, superposition, and unitarity, making no use of the Schroedinger formalism. The suggested approach is shown to be more general than the nonrelativistic scattering theory based on the Schroedinger equation. The approach is applied to build a model ofthe scattering theory for a system which consists of heavy nonrelativistic particles and a light relativistic particle

  19. Causal nexus between energy consumption and carbon dioxide emission for Malaysia using maximum entropy bootstrap approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gul, Sehrish; Zou, Xiang; Hassan, Che Hashim; Azam, Muhammad; Zaman, Khalid

    2015-12-01

    This study investigates the relationship between energy consumption and carbon dioxide emission in the causal framework, as the direction of causality remains has a significant policy implication for developed and developing countries. The study employed maximum entropy bootstrap (Meboot) approach to examine the causal nexus between energy consumption and carbon dioxide emission using bivariate as well as multivariate framework for Malaysia, over a period of 1975-2013. This is a unified approach without requiring the use of conventional techniques based on asymptotical theory such as testing for possible unit root and cointegration. In addition, it can be applied in the presence of non-stationary of any type including structural breaks without any type of data transformation to achieve stationary. Thus, it provides more reliable and robust inferences which are insensitive to time span as well as lag length used. The empirical results show that there is a unidirectional causality running from energy consumption to carbon emission both in the bivariate model and multivariate framework, while controlling for broad money supply and population density. The results indicate that Malaysia is an energy-dependent country and hence energy is stimulus to carbon emissions.

  20. Causal inference as an emerging statistical approach in neurology: an example for epilepsy in the elderly

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moura LMVR

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Lidia MVR Moura,1,2 M Brandon Westover,1,2 David Kwasnik,1 Andrew J Cole,1,2 John Hsu3–5 1Massachusetts General Hospital, Department of Neurology, Epilepsy Service, Boston, MA, USA; 2Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA; 3Massachusetts General Hospital, Mongan Institute, Boston, MA, USA; 4Harvard Medical School, Department of Medicine, Boston, MA, USA; 5Harvard Medical School, Department of Health Care Policy, Boston, MA, USA Abstract: The elderly population faces an increasing number of cases of chronic neurological conditions, such as epilepsy and Alzheimer’s disease. Because the elderly with epilepsy are commonly excluded from randomized controlled clinical trials, there are few rigorous studies to guide clinical practice. When the elderly are eligible for trials, they either rarely participate or frequently have poor adherence to therapy, thus limiting both generalizability and validity. In contrast, large observational data sets are increasingly available, but are susceptible to bias when using common analytic approaches. Recent developments in causal inference-analytic approaches also introduce the possibility of emulating randomized controlled trials to yield valid estimates. We provide a practical example of the application of the principles of causal inference to a large observational data set of patients with epilepsy. This review also provides a framework for comparative-effectiveness research in chronic neurological conditions. Keywords: epilepsy, epidemiology, neurostatistics, causal inference

  1. Investigating the causal effect of vitamin D on serum adiponectin using a mendelian randomization approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Husemoen, L. L. N.; Skaaby, T.; Martinussen, Torben

    2014-01-01

    Background/Objectives: The aim was to examine the causal effect of vitamin D on serum adiponectin using a multiple instrument Mendelian randomization approach. Subjects/Methods: Serum 25-hydroxy vitamin D (25(OH)D) and serum total or high molecular weight (HMW) adiponectin were measured in two...... doubling of 25(OH)D was 4.78, 95% CI: 1.96, 7.68, Pvitamin D-binding protein gene and the filaggrin gene as instrumental variables, the causal effect in % was estimated to 61.46, 95% CI: 17.51, 120.28, P=0.003 higher adiponectin per doubling of 25(OH)D. In the MONICA10...... effect estimate in % per doubling of 25(OH)D was 37.13, 95% CI:-3.67, 95.20, P=0.080). Conclusions: The results indicate a possible causal association between serum 25(OH)D and total adiponectin. However, the association was not replicated for HMW adiponectin. Thus, further studies are needed to confirm...

  2. Identifying interactions in the time and frequency domains in local and global networks - A Granger Causality Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zou, Cunlu; Ladroue, Christophe; Guo, Shuixia; Feng, Jianfeng

    2010-06-21

    Reverse-engineering approaches such as Bayesian network inference, ordinary differential equations (ODEs) and information theory are widely applied to deriving causal relationships among different elements such as genes, proteins, metabolites, neurons, brain areas and so on, based upon multi-dimensional spatial and temporal data. There are several well-established reverse-engineering approaches to explore causal relationships in a dynamic network, such as ordinary differential equations (ODE), Bayesian networks, information theory and Granger Causality. Here we focused on Granger causality both in the time and frequency domain and in local and global networks, and applied our approach to experimental data (genes and proteins). For a small gene network, Granger causality outperformed all the other three approaches mentioned above. A global protein network of 812 proteins was reconstructed, using a novel approach. The obtained results fitted well with known experimental findings and predicted many experimentally testable results. In addition to interactions in the time domain, interactions in the frequency domain were also recovered. The results on the proteomic data and gene data confirm that Granger causality is a simple and accurate approach to recover the network structure. Our approach is general and can be easily applied to other types of temporal data.

  3. Identifying interactions in the time and frequency domains in local and global networks - A Granger Causality Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guo Shuixia

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Reverse-engineering approaches such as Bayesian network inference, ordinary differential equations (ODEs and information theory are widely applied to deriving causal relationships among different elements such as genes, proteins, metabolites, neurons, brain areas and so on, based upon multi-dimensional spatial and temporal data. There are several well-established reverse-engineering approaches to explore causal relationships in a dynamic network, such as ordinary differential equations (ODE, Bayesian networks, information theory and Granger Causality. Results Here we focused on Granger causality both in the time and frequency domain and in local and global networks, and applied our approach to experimental data (genes and proteins. For a small gene network, Granger causality outperformed all the other three approaches mentioned above. A global protein network of 812 proteins was reconstructed, using a novel approach. The obtained results fitted well with known experimental findings and predicted many experimentally testable results. In addition to interactions in the time domain, interactions in the frequency domain were also recovered. Conclusions The results on the proteomic data and gene data confirm that Granger causality is a simple and accurate approach to recover the network structure. Our approach is general and can be easily applied to other types of temporal data.

  4. Bounds test approach to cointegration and causality between nuclear energy consumption and economic growth in India

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wolde-Rufael, Yemane

    2010-01-01

    This paper attempts to examine the dynamic relationship between economic growth, nuclear energy consumption, labor and capital for India for the period 1969-2006. Applying the bounds test approach to cointegration developed by we find that there was a short- and a long-run relationship between nuclear energy consumption and economic growth. Using four long-run estimators we also found that nuclear energy consumption has a positive and a statistically significant impact on India's economic growth. Further, applying the approach to Granger causality and the variance decomposition approach developed by , we found a positive and a significant uni-directional causality running from nuclear energy consumption to economic growth without feedback. This implies that economic growth in India is dependent on nuclear energy consumption where a decrease in nuclear energy consumption may lead to a decrease in real income. For a fast growing energy-dependent economy this may have far-reaching implications for economic growth. India's economic growth can be frustrated if energy conservation measures are undertaken without due regard to the negative impact they have on economic growth.

  5. R Package multiPIM: A Causal Inference Approach to Variable Importance Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephan J Ritter

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available We describe the R package multiPIM, including statistical background, functionality and user options. The package is for variable importance analysis, and is meant primarily for analyzing data from exploratory epidemiological studies, though it could certainly be applied in other areas as well. The approach taken to variable importance comes from the causal inference field, and is different from approaches taken in other R packages. By default, multiPIM uses a double robust targeted maximum likelihood estimator (TMLE of a parameter akin to the attributable risk. Several regression methods/machine learning algorithms are available for estimating the nuisance parameters of the models, including super learner, a meta-learner which combines several different algorithms into one. We describe a simulation in which the double robust TMLE is compared to the graphical computation estimator. We also provide example analyses using two data sets which are included with the package.

  6. Review Article: Revisiting the Entitlement Approach to Famine ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Sen's (1981b) entitlement approach conceptualises famine as the characteristics of some people not having enough food to eat but not of there being not enough food to eat. Famine from this perspective is one that occurs without a decline in the macro level supply of food and, hence, it is all about demand failure/shift in the ...

  7. Revisiting Cyberbullying in Schools Using the Quality Circle Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paul, Simone; Smith, Peter K.; Blumberg, Herbert H.

    2012-01-01

    An earlier study reported the use of Quality Circles (QC) in a UK school in the context of understanding and reducing bullying and cyberbullying. Here, we report further work in the same school setting. The QC approach allows explorative analysis of problems in school settings, whereby students embark on a problem-solving exercise over a period of…

  8. Dynamics of charged viscous dissipative cylindrical collapse with full causal approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shah, S.M.; Abbas, G. [The Islamia University of Bahawalpur, Department of Mathematics, Bahawalpur (Pakistan)

    2017-11-15

    The aim of this paper is to investigate the dynamical aspects of a charged viscous cylindrical source by using the Misner approach. To this end, we have considered the more general charged dissipative fluid enclosed by the cylindrical symmetric spacetime. The dissipative nature of the source is due to the presence of dissipative variables in the stress-energy tensor. The dynamical equations resulting from such charged cylindrical dissipative source have been coupled with the causal transport equations for heat flux, shear and bulk viscosity, in the context of the Israel-Steward theory. In this case, we have the considered Israel-Steward transportation equations without excluding the thermodynamics viscous/heat coupling coefficients. The results are compared with the previous works in which such coefficients were excluded and viscosity variables do not satisfy the casual transportation equations. (orig.)

  9. Driving Behaviour and Sustainable Mobility—Policies and Approaches Revisited

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Keyvanfar

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is receiving increasing attention in recent years. The transportation sector contributes substantially to increased fuel consumption, greenhouse gas (GHG emissions, and poor air quality, which imposes a serious respiratory health hazard. Road transport has made a significant contribution to this effect. Consequently, many countries have attempted to mitigate climate change using various strategies. This study analysed and compared the number of policies and other approaches necessary to achieve reduced fuel consumption and carbon emission. Frequency aggregation indicates that the mitigation policies associated with driving behaviours adopted to curtail this consumption and decrease hazardous emissions, as well as a safety enhancement. Furthermore, car-sharing/carpooling was the least investigated approach to establish its influence on mitigation of climate change. Additionally, the influence of such driving behaviours as acceleration/deceleration and the compliance to speed limits on each approach was discussed. Other driving behaviours, such as gear shifting, compliance to traffic laws, choice of route, and idling and braking style, were also discussed. Likewise, the influence of aggression, anxiety, and motivation on driving behaviour of motorists was highlighted. The research determined that driving behaviours can lead to new adaptive driving behaviours and, thus, cause a significant decrease of vehicle fuel consumption and CO2 emissions.

  10. Epidemiological causality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morabia, Alfredo

    2005-01-01

    Epidemiological methods, which combine population thinking and group comparisons, can primarily identify causes of disease in populations. There is therefore a tension between our intuitive notion of a cause, which we want to be deterministic and invariant at the individual level, and the epidemiological notion of causes, which are invariant only at the population level. Epidemiologists have given heretofore a pragmatic solution to this tension. Causal inference in epidemiology consists in checking the logical coherence of a causality statement and determining whether what has been found grossly contradicts what we think we already know: how strong is the association? Is there a dose-response relationship? Does the cause precede the effect? Is the effect biologically plausible? Etc. This approach to causal inference can be traced back to the English philosophers David Hume and John Stuart Mill. On the other hand, the mode of establishing causality, devised by Jakob Henle and Robert Koch, which has been fruitful in bacteriology, requires that in every instance the effect invariably follows the cause (e.g., inoculation of Koch bacillus and tuberculosis). This is incompatible with epidemiological causality which has to deal with probabilistic effects (e.g., smoking and lung cancer), and is therefore invariant only for the population.

  11. Bioelectromagnetic forward problem: isolated source approach revis(it)ed.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stenroos, M; Sarvas, J

    2012-06-07

    Electro- and magnetoencephalography (EEG and MEG) are non-invasive modalities for studying the electrical activity of the brain by measuring voltages on the scalp and magnetic fields outside the head. In the forward problem of EEG and MEG, the relationship between the neural sources and resulting signals is characterized using electromagnetic field theory. This forward problem is commonly solved with the boundary-element method (BEM). The EEG forward problem is numerically challenging due to the low relative conductivity of the skull. In this work, we revise the isolated source approach (ISA) that enables the accurate, computationally efficient BEM solution of this problem. The ISA is formulated for generic basis and weight functions that enable the use of Galerkin weighting. The implementation of the ISA-formulated linear Galerkin BEM (LGISA) is first verified in spherical geometry. Then, the LGISA is compared with conventional Galerkin and symmetric BEM approaches in a realistic 3-shell EEG/MEG model. The results show that the LGISA is a state-of-the-art method for EEG/MEG forward modeling: the ISA formulation increases the accuracy and decreases the computational load. Contrary to some earlier studies, the results show that the ISA increases the accuracy also in the computation of magnetic fields.

  12. Quasi-classical approaches to vibronic spectra revisited

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karsten, Sven; Ivanov, Sergei D.; Bokarev, Sergey I.; Kühn, Oliver

    2018-03-01

    The framework to approach quasi-classical dynamics in the electronic ground state is well established and is based on the Kubo-transformed time correlation function (TCF), being the most classical-like quantum TCF. Here we discuss whether the choice of the Kubo-transformed TCF as a starting point for simulating vibronic spectra is as unambiguous as it is for vibrational ones. Employing imaginary-time path integral techniques in combination with the interaction representation allowed us to formulate a method for simulating vibronic spectra in the adiabatic regime that takes nuclear quantum effects and dynamics on multiple potential energy surfaces into account. Further, a generalized quantum TCF is proposed that contains many well-established TCFs, including the Kubo one, as particular cases. Importantly, it also provides a framework to construct new quantum TCFs. Applying the developed methodology to the generalized TCF leads to a plethora of simulation protocols, which are based on the well-known TCFs as well as on new ones. Their performance is investigated on 1D anharmonic model systems at finite temperatures. It is shown that the protocols based on the new TCFs may lead to superior results with respect to those based on the common ones. The strategies to find the optimal approach are discussed.

  13. The energy efficiency paradox revisited through a partial observability approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kounetas, Kostas; Tsekouras, Kostas

    2008-01-01

    The present paper examines the energy efficiency paradox demonstrated in Greek manufacturing firms through a partial observability approach. The data set used has resulted from a survey carried out among 161 energy-saving technology firm adopters. Maximum likelihood estimates that arise from an incidental truncation model reveal that the adoption of the energy-saving technologies is indeed strongly correlated to the returns of assets that are required in order to undertake the corresponding investments. The source of the energy efficiency paradox lies within a wide range of factors. Policy schemes that aim to increase the adoption rate of energy-saving technologies within the field of manufacturing are significantly affected by differences in the size of firms. Finally, mixed policies seem to be more effective than policies that are only capital subsidy or regulation oriented

  14. Determinants of Current Account Deficit in Turkey: The Conditional and Partial Granger Causality Approach

    OpenAIRE

    YURDAKUL, Funda; CEVHER, Erdogan

    2015-01-01

    This study aims to reveal the causality relations between the macro aggregates that affect current deficit using conditional and partial Granger causality test. Current deficit/GDP, growth rate, real effective exchange rate, direct foreign capital investment, openness, and energy import were selected as variables for this purpose. 2003.1-2014.2 quarterly data for Turkey’s economy were used for analysis. The results of the conditional and partial Granger causality test demonstrate that real ef...

  15. Evaluation of Methyl-Binding Domain Based Enrichment Approaches Revisited.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karolina A Aberg

    Full Text Available Methyl-binding domain (MBD enrichment followed by deep sequencing (MBD-seq, is a robust and cost efficient approach for methylome-wide association studies (MWAS. MBD-seq has been demonstrated to be capable of identifying differentially methylated regions, detecting previously reported robust associations and producing findings that replicate with other technologies such as targeted pyrosequencing of bisulfite converted DNA. There are several kits commercially available that can be used for MBD enrichment. Our previous work has involved MethylMiner (Life Technologies, Foster City, CA, USA that we chose after careful investigation of its properties. However, in a recent evaluation of five commercially available MBD-enrichment kits the performance of the MethylMiner was deemed poor. Given our positive experience with MethylMiner, we were surprised by this report. In an attempt to reproduce these findings we here have performed a direct comparison of MethylMiner with MethylCap (Diagenode Inc, Denville, NJ, USA, the best performing kit in that study. We find that both MethylMiner and MethylCap are two well performing MBD-enrichment kits. However, MethylMiner shows somewhat better enrichment efficiency and lower levels of background "noise". In addition, for the purpose of MWAS where we want to investigate the majority of CpGs, we find MethylMiner to be superior as it allows tailoring the enrichment to the regions where most CpGs are located. Using targeted bisulfite sequencing we confirmed that sites where methylation was detected by either MethylMiner or by MethylCap indeed were methylated.

  16. Hume, Mill, Hill, and the sui generis epidemiologic approach to causal inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morabia, Alfredo

    2013-11-15

    The epidemiologic approach to causal inference (i.e., Hill's viewpoints) consists of evaluating potential causes from the following 2, noncumulative angles: 1) established results from comparative, observational, or experimental epidemiologic studies; and 2) reviews of nonepidemiologic evidence. It does not involve statements of statistical significance. The philosophical roots of Hill's viewpoints are unknown. Superficially, they seem to descend from the ideas of Hume and Mill. Hill's viewpoints, however, use a different kind of evidence and have different purposes than do Hume's rules or Mill's system of logic. In a nutshell, Hume ignores comparative evidence central to Hill's viewpoints. Mill's logic disqualifies as invalid nonexperimental evidence, which forms the bulk of epidemiologic findings reviewed from Hill's viewpoints. The approaches by Hume and Mill cannot corroborate successful implementations of Hill's viewpoints. Besides Hume and Mill, the epidemiologic literature is clueless about a plausible, pre-1965 philosophical origin of Hill's viewpoints. Thus, Hill's viewpoints may be philosophically novel, sui generis, still waiting to be validated and justified.

  17. "Great Ideas" in Russian Psychology: Personality Impact on Psychophysiological Functions and Causal Approach to Self- determination

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irina A. Mironenko

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Russian psychology has brought into the world science at least two great ideas: the conditioned reflex (Pavlov and the zone of proximal development (Vygotsky. These concepts were formulated before “iron curtain” fell. Since then Russian science dropped out from the view of western colleagues for decades. Now it is challenged to re-join international mainstream. Are we in a position to contribute?A key concept for Russian psychology is personality impact on psycho-physiological functions and causal approach to self-determination. The concept of selfdetermination appeared in Western theories in 1980-es and since then it has been developed in the context of teleological humanitarian approach. In Russian science the concept of self-determination dates back to 1934, when it was defined by Rubinstein as “sub’ekt”. Self-determination of ontogenesis of psycho physiological functions resulting from confluence of ontogenesis and social development was explicated by Russian scientists whose theoretical reasoning and empirical results are compared to Western counterparts.

  18. Strategic planning for MyRA performance: A causal loop diagram approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abidin, Norhaslinda Zainal; Zaibidi, Nerda Zura; Karim, Khairah Nazurah

    2017-10-01

    The nexus of research and innovation in higher education are continually receiving worldwide priority attention. Hence, Malaysia has taken its move to enhance public universities as a center of excellence by introducing the status of Research University (RU). To inspire all universities towards becoming a research university, The Ministry of Higher Education (MoHE) had revised an assessment called Malaysian Research Assessment Instrument (MyRA) to evaluate the performance of existence RUs, and other potential higher education institutions. The available spreadsheet tool to access MyRA performance is inadequate to support strategic planning. Since, higher education management is a complex system, in which components and their interactions are ever changing over time, there is a need to for an efficient approach to investigate system behavior and devise research management policies for the benefit of the institution itself and the higher education system. In this paper, we proposed a system dynamics simulation model to evaluate the impact of policies for obtaining the highest performance in MyRA assessment. Causal loop diagram is developed to investigate the relationship of various elements in research management, their inter-relationship that link together and their evolution of behavior over time.

  19. A new approach for agroecosystems monitoring using high-revisit multitemporal satellite data series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diez, M.; Moclán, C.; Romo, A.; Pirondini, F.

    2014-10-01

    With increasing population pressure throughout the world and the need for increased agricultural production there is a definite need for improved management of the world's agricultural resources. Comprehensive, reliable and timely information on agricultural resources is necessary for the implementation of effective management decisions. In that sense, the demand for high-quality and high-frequency geo-information for monitoring of agriculture and its associated ecosystems has been growing in the recent decades. Satellite image data enable direct observation of large areas at frequent intervals and therefore allow unprecedented mapping and monitoring of crops evolution. Furthermore, real time analysis can assist in making timely management decisions that affect the outcome of the crops. The DEIMOS-1 satellite, owned and operated by ELECNOR DEIMOS IMAGING (Spain), provides 22m, 3-band imagery with a very wide (620-km) swath, and has been specifically designed to produce high-frequency revisit on very large areas. This capability has been proved through the contracts awarded to Airbus Defence and Space every year since 2011, where DEIMOS-1 has provided the USDA with the bulk of the imagery used to monitor the crop season in the Lower 48, in cooperation with its twin satellite DMCii's UK-DMC2. Furthermore, high density agricultural areas have been targeted with increased frequency and analyzed in near real time to monitor tightly the evolution. In this paper we present the results obtained from a campaign carried out in 2013 with DEIMOS-1 and UK-DMC2 satellites. These campaigns provided a high-frequency revisit of target areas, with one image every two days on average: almost a ten-fold frequency improvement with respect to Landsat-8. The results clearly show the effectiveness of a high-frequency monitoring approach with high resolution images with respect to classic strategies where results are more exposed to weather conditions.

  20. CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ENERGY CONSUMPTION, ECONOMIC GROWTH AND CO2 EMISSIONS: A DYNAMIC PANEL DATA APPROACH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chaido Dritsaki

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Energy plays an important role in economic development worldwide. The increase of energy consumption showed that CO2 emissions in the atmosphere have increased dramatically, and these lead many scientists to push governments of the developing countries to take action for the formulation of environmental policies. Many studies have attempted to look for the direction of causality between energy consumption (EC, economic growth (GDP and CO2 emissions mainly on developing countries. This paper, therefore, applies the panel unit root tests, panel cointegration methods and panel causality test to investigate the relationship between energy consumption (EC, economic growth (GDP and CO2 emissions for three countries of Southern Europe (Greece, Spain, and Portugal covering the annual period 1960-2009. The FMOLS and DOLS are then used to estimate the long run relationship between the variables. The findings of this study reveal that there is a short-run bilateral causal link between the examined variables. However, in the long run, there is a unidirectional causality running from CO2 emissions to energy consumption (EC, and economic growth (GDP and a bilateral causality between energy consumption and economic growth. This indicates that energy is a force for economic growth both in short and long run as it is driven from economic growth. Moreover, to face the heterogeneity on the three countries of Southern Europe we use the FMOLS and DOLS estimation methods.

  1. CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FOSSIL FUEL CONSUMPTION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN JAPAN: A MULTIVARIATE APPROACH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hazuki Ishida

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper explores whether Japanese economy can continue to grow without extensive dependence on fossil fuels. The paper conducts time series analysis using a multivariate model of fossil fuels, non-fossil energy, labor, stock and GDP to investigate the relationship between fossil fuel consumption and economic growth in Japan. The results of cointegration tests indicate long-run relationships among the variables. Using a vector error-correction model, the study reveals bidirectional causality between fossil fuels and GDP. The results also show that there is no causal relationship between non-fossil energy and GDP. The results of cointegration analysis, Granger causality tests, and variance decomposition analysis imply that non-fossil energy may not necessarily be able to play the role of fossil fuels. Japan cannot seem to realize both continuous economic growth and the departure from dependence on fossil fuels. Hence, growth-oriented macroeconomic policies should be re-examined.

  2. The Job Satisfaction-Life Satisfaction Relationship Revisited: Using the Lewbel Estimation Technique to Estimate Causal Effects Using Cross-Sectional Data

    OpenAIRE

    Vinod Mishra; Ingrid Nielsen; Russell Smyth; Alex Newman

    2014-01-01

    This paper uses a novel identification strategy proposed by Lewbel (2012, J. Bus. Econ. Stat.) to illustrate how causation between job satisfaction and life satisfaction can be established with cross-sectional data. In addition to examining the relationship between composite job satisfaction and life satisfaction, we consider the relationship between life satisfaction and different facets of job satisfaction. We find evidence of bidirectional causality between job satisfaction and life satisf...

  3. A Temporal-Causal Modelling Approach to Integrated Contagion and Network Change in Social Networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Blankendaal, Romy; Parinussa, Sarah; Treur, Jan

    2016-01-01

    This paper introduces an integrated temporal-causal model for dynamics in social networks addressing the contagion principle by which states are affected mutually, and both the homophily principle and the more-becomes-more principle by which connections are adapted over time. The integrated model

  4. Economic growth-electricity consumption causality in 12 European countries: A dynamic panel data approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ciarreta, A.; Zarraga, A.

    2010-01-01

    This paper applies recent panel methodology to investigate the long-run and causal relationship between electricity consumption and real GDP for a set of 12 European countries using annual data for the period 1970-2007. The sample countries have moved faster than other neighboring countries towards the creation of a single electricity market over the past 30 years. Energy prices are also included in the study due to their important role in affecting the above variables, thus avoiding the problem of omitted variable bias. Tests for panel unit roots, cointegration in heterogeneous panels and panel causality are employed in a trivariate VECM estimated by system GMM. The results show evidence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between the three series and a negative short-run and strong causality from electricity consumption to GDP. As expected, there is bidirectional causality between energy prices and GDP and weaker evidence between electricity consumption and energy prices. These results support the policies implemented towards the creation of a common European electricity market.

  5. Adolescent Victimization and Early-Adult Psychopathology: Approaching Causal Inference Using a Longitudinal Twin Study to Rule Out Noncausal Explanations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaefer, Jonathan D.; Moffitt, Terrie E.; Arseneault, Louise; Danese, Andrea; Fisher, Helen L.; Houts, Renate; Sheridan, Margaret A.; Wertz, Jasmin; Caspi, Avshalom

    2017-01-01

    Adolescence is the peak age for both victimization and mental disorder onset. Previous research has reported associations between victimization exposure and many psychiatric conditions. However, causality remains controversial. Within the Environmental Risk Longitudinal Twin Study, we tested whether seven types of adolescent victimization increased risk of multiple psychiatric conditions and approached causal inference by systematically ruling out noncausal explanations. Longitudinal within-individual analyses showed that victimization was followed by increased mental health problems over a childhood baseline of emotional/behavioral problems. Discordant-twin analyses showed that victimization increased risk of mental health problems independent of family background and genetic risk. Both childhood and adolescent victimization made unique contributions to risk. Victimization predicted heightened generalized liability (the “p factor”) to multiple psychiatric spectra, including internalizing, externalizing, and thought disorders. Results recommend violence reduction and identification and treatment of adolescent victims to reduce psychiatric burden. PMID:29805917

  6. Calculating the Prior Probability Distribution for a Causal Network Using Maximum Entropy: Alternative Approaches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael J. Markham

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Some problems occurring in Expert Systems can be resolved by employing a causal (Bayesian network and methodologies exist for this purpose. These require data in a specific form and make assumptions about the independence relationships involved. Methodologies using Maximum Entropy (ME are free from these conditions and have the potential to be used in a wider context including systems consisting of given sets of linear and independence constraints, subject to consistency and convergence. ME can also be used to validate results from the causal network methodologies. Three ME methods for determining the prior probability distribution of causal network systems are considered. The first method is Sequential Maximum Entropy in which the computation of a progression of local distributions leads to the over-all distribution. This is followed by development of the Method of Tribus. The development takes the form of an algorithm that includes the handling of explicit independence constraints. These fall into two groups those relating parents of vertices, and those deduced from triangulation of the remaining graph. The third method involves a variation in the part of that algorithm which handles independence constraints. Evidence is presented that this adaptation only requires the linear constraints and the parental independence constraints to emulate the second method in a substantial class of examples.

  7. The causal nexus between carbon dioxide emissions and agricultural ecosystem-an econometric approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asumadu-Sarkodie, Samuel; Owusu, Phebe Asantewaa

    2017-01-01

    Achieving a long-term food security and preventing hunger include a better nutrition through sustainable systems of production, distribution, and consumption. Nonetheless, the quest for an alternative to increasing global food supply to meet the growing demand has led to the use of poor agricultural practices that promote climate change. Given the contribution of the agricultural ecosystem towards greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, this study investigated the causal nexus between carbon dioxide emissions and agricultural ecosystem by employing a data spanning from 1961 to 2012. Evidence from long-run elasticity shows that a 1 % increase in the area of rice paddy harvested will increase carbon dioxide emissions by 1.49 %, a 1 % increase in biomass-burned crop residues will increase carbon dioxide emissions by 1.00 %, a 1 % increase in cereal production will increase carbon dioxide emissions by 1.38 %, and a 1 % increase in agricultural machinery will decrease carbon dioxide emissions by 0.09 % in the long run. There was a bidirectional causality between carbon dioxide emissions, cereal production, and biomass-burned crop residues. The Granger causality shows that the agricultural ecosystem in Ghana is sensitive to climate change vulnerability.

  8. On the notion of causality in medicine: addressing Austin Bradford Hill and John L. Mackie

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    Luís Fernando S. C. de Araújo

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Almost 50 years ago appeared the seminal article by Austin Bradford Hill where he presented parameters for inferring causes from statistical associations, which became known as Hill’s causal criteria. This was a milestone for the renewal of the idea of cause in medicine. Our article revisits his contribution in light of the ideas from the Australian philosopher John L. Mackie, whose important works on causality reached an audience distinct from Hill’s. We suggest that both the British epidemiologist and the Australian philosopher share the purpose of articulating probabilistic determinism and multi-causality, the first with a predominantly probabilistic model and the second with an analytical approach. This article explores the possible consequences of addressing these authors jointly in regard to causal inferences in medicine, especially in respect to mental disorders.

  9. Time functions revisited

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fathi, Albert

    2015-07-01

    In this paper we revisit our joint work with Antonio Siconolfi on time functions. We will give a brief introduction to the subject. We will then show how to construct a Lipschitz time function in a simplified setting. We will end with a new result showing that the Aubry set is not an artifact of our proof of existence of time functions for stably causal manifolds.

  10. Overpressures: Causal Mechanisms, Conventional and Hydromechanical Approaches Surpressions : origine, approches conventionnelle et hydromécanique

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    Grauls D.

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available Abnormal fluid pressure regimes are commonly encountered at depth in most sedimentary basins. Relationships between effective vertical stress and porosity have been applied, since 1970 to the Gulf Coast area, to assess the magnitude of overpressures. Positive results have been obtained from seismic and basin-modeling techniques in sand-shale, vertical-stress-dominated tertiary basins, whenever compaction disequilibrium conditions apply. However, overpressures resulting from other and/or additional causes (tectonic stress, hydrocarbon generation, thermal stress, fault-related transfer, hydrofracturing. . . cannot be quantitatively assessed using this approach. A hydromechanical approach is then proposed in addition to conventional methods. At any depth, the upper bound fluid pressure is controlled by in situ conditions related to hydrofracturing or fault reactivation. Fluid-driven fracturing implies an episodically open system, under a close to zerominimum effective stress regime. Sound knowledge of present-day tectonic stress regimes allows a direct estimation of minimum stress evolution. A quantitative fluid pressure assessment at depth is therefore possible, as in undrained or/and compartmented geological systems, pressure regimes, whatever their origin, tend to rapidly reach a value close to the minimum principal stress. Therefore, overpressure assessment will be improved, as this methodology can be applied to various geological settings and situations where present-day overpressures originated from other causal mechanisms, very often combined. However, pressure trends in transition zones are more difficult to assess correctly. Additional research on cap rocks and fault seals is therefore required to improve their predictability. In addition to overpressure assessment, the minimum principal stress concept allows a better understanding of petroleum system, as fault-related hydrocarbon dynamic transfers, hydrofractured domains and cap

  11. DOES GENDER EQUALITY LEAD TO BETTER-PERFORMING ECONOMIES? A BAYESIAN CAUSAL MAP APPROACH

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    Yelda YÜCEL

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This study explores the existence of relationships between gender inequalities –represented by the components of the World Economic Forum (WEF Global Gender Gap Index– and the major macroeconomic indicators. The relationships within gender inequalities in education, the labour market, health and the political arena, and between gender inequalities and gross macroeconomic aggregates were modelled with the Bayesian Causal Map, an effective tool that is used to analyze cause-effect relations and conditional dependencies between variables. A data set of 128 countries during the period 2007–2011 is used. Findings reveal that some inequalities have high levels of interaction with each other. In addition, eradicating gender inequalities is found to be associated with better economic performance, mainly in the form of higher gross domestic product growth, investment, and competitiveness.

  12. Causal Analysis After Haavelmo

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heckman, James; Pinto, Rodrigo

    2014-01-01

    Haavelmo's seminal 1943 and 1944 papers are the first rigorous treatment of causality. In them, he distinguished the definition of causal parameters from their identification. He showed that causal parameters are defined using hypothetical models that assign variation to some of the inputs determining outcomes while holding all other inputs fixed. He thus formalized and made operational Marshall's (1890) ceteris paribus analysis. We embed Haavelmo's framework into the recursive framework of Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) used in one influential recent approach to causality (Pearl, 2000) and in the related literature on Bayesian nets (Lauritzen, 1996). We compare the simplicity of an analysis of causality based on Haavelmo's methodology with the complex and nonintuitive approach used in the causal literature of DAGs—the “do-calculus” of Pearl (2009). We discuss the severe limitations of DAGs and in particular of the do-calculus of Pearl in securing identification of economic models. We extend our framework to consider models for simultaneous causality, a central contribution of Haavelmo. In general cases, DAGs cannot be used to analyze models for simultaneous causality, but Haavelmo's approach naturally generalizes to cover them. PMID:25729123

  13. Causal universe

    CERN Document Server

    Ellis, George FR; Pabjan, Tadeusz

    2013-01-01

    Written by philosophers, cosmologists, and physicists, this collection of essays deals with causality, which is a core issue for both science and philosophy. Readers will learn about different types of causality in complex systems and about new perspectives on this issue based on physical and cosmological considerations. In addition, the book includes essays pertaining to the problem of causality in ancient Greek philosophy, and to the problem of God's relation to the causal structures of nature viewed in the light of contemporary physics and cosmology.

  14. Performing Causal Configurations in e-Tourism: a Fuzzy-Set Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hugues Seraphin

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Search engines are constantly endeavouring to integrate social media mentions in the website ranking process. Search Engine Optimization (SEO principles can be used to impact website ranking, considering various social media channels� capability to drive traffic. Both practitioners and researchers has focused on the impact of social media on SEO, but paid little attention to the influences of social media interactions on organic search results. This study explores the causal configurations between social mention variables (strength, sentiment, passion, reach and the rankings of nine websites dedicated to hotel booking (according to organic search results. The social mention variables embedded into the conceptual model were provided by the real-time social media search and analysis tool (www.socialmention.com, while the rankings websites dedicated to hotel booking were determined after a targeted search on Google. The study employs fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA and the results reveal that social mention variables has complex links with the rankings of the hotel booking websites included into the sample, according to Quine-McCluskey algorithm solution. The findings extend the body of knowledge related to the impact of social media mentions on

  15. Causal and causally separable processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oreshkov, Ognyan; Giarmatzi, Christina

    2016-09-01

    The idea that events are equipped with a partial causal order is central to our understanding of physics in the tested regimes: given two pointlike events A and B, either A is in the causal past of B, B is in the causal past of A, or A and B are space-like separated. Operationally, the meaning of these order relations corresponds to constraints on the possible correlations between experiments performed in the vicinities of the respective events: if A is in the causal past of B, an experimenter at A could signal to an experimenter at B but not the other way around, while if A and B are space-like separated, no signaling is possible in either direction. In the context of a concrete physical theory, the correlations compatible with a given causal configuration may obey further constraints. For instance, space-like correlations in quantum mechanics arise from local measurements on joint quantum states, while time-like correlations are established via quantum channels. Similarly to other variables, however, the causal order of a set of events could be random, and little is understood about the constraints that causality implies in this case. A main difficulty concerns the fact that the order of events can now generally depend on the operations performed at the locations of these events, since, for instance, an operation at A could influence the order in which B and C occur in A’s future. So far, no formal theory of causality compatible with such dynamical causal order has been developed. Apart from being of fundamental interest in the context of inferring causal relations, such a theory is imperative for understanding recent suggestions that the causal order of events in quantum mechanics can be indefinite. Here, we develop such a theory in the general multipartite case. Starting from a background-independent definition of causality, we derive an iteratively formulated canonical decomposition of multipartite causal correlations. For a fixed number of settings and

  16. Causal and causally separable processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oreshkov, Ognyan; Giarmatzi, Christina

    2016-01-01

    The idea that events are equipped with a partial causal order is central to our understanding of physics in the tested regimes: given two pointlike events A and B , either A is in the causal past of B , B is in the causal past of A , or A and B are space-like separated. Operationally, the meaning of these order relations corresponds to constraints on the possible correlations between experiments performed in the vicinities of the respective events: if A is in the causal past of B , an experimenter at A could signal to an experimenter at B but not the other way around, while if A and B are space-like separated, no signaling is possible in either direction. In the context of a concrete physical theory, the correlations compatible with a given causal configuration may obey further constraints. For instance, space-like correlations in quantum mechanics arise from local measurements on joint quantum states, while time-like correlations are established via quantum channels. Similarly to other variables, however, the causal order of a set of events could be random, and little is understood about the constraints that causality implies in this case. A main difficulty concerns the fact that the order of events can now generally depend on the operations performed at the locations of these events, since, for instance, an operation at A could influence the order in which B and C occur in A ’s future. So far, no formal theory of causality compatible with such dynamical causal order has been developed. Apart from being of fundamental interest in the context of inferring causal relations, such a theory is imperative for understanding recent suggestions that the causal order of events in quantum mechanics can be indefinite. Here, we develop such a theory in the general multipartite case. Starting from a background-independent definition of causality, we derive an iteratively formulated canonical decomposition of multipartite causal correlations. For a fixed number of settings and

  17. Hemispheric lateralization in top-down attention during spatial relation processing: a Granger causal model approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falasca, N W; D'Ascenzo, S; Di Domenico, A; Onofrj, M; Tommasi, L; Laeng, B; Franciotti, R

    2015-04-01

    Magnetoencephalography was recorded during a matching-to-sample plus cueing paradigm, in which participants judged the occurrence of changes in either categorical (CAT) or coordinate (COO) spatial relations. Previously, parietal and frontal lobes were identified as key areas in processing spatial relations and it was shown that each hemisphere was differently involved and modulated by the scope of the attention window (e.g. a large and small cue). In this study, Granger analysis highlighted the patterns of causality among involved brain areas--the direction of information transfer ran from the frontal to the visual cortex in the right hemisphere, whereas it ran in the opposite direction in the left side. Thus, the right frontal area seems to exert top-down influence, supporting the idea that, in this task, top-down signals are selectively related to the right side. Additionally, for CAT change preceded by a small cue, the right frontal gyrus was not involved in the information transfer, indicating a selective specialization of the left hemisphere for this condition. The present findings strengthen the conclusion of the presence of a remarkable hemispheric specialization for spatial relation processing and illustrate the complex interactions between the lateralized parts of the neural network. Moreover, they illustrate how focusing attention over large or small regions of the visual field engages these lateralized networks differently, particularly in the frontal regions of each hemisphere, consistent with the theory that spatial relation judgements require a fronto-parietal network in the left hemisphere for categorical relations and on the right hemisphere for coordinate spatial processing. © 2015 Federation of European Neuroscience Societies and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  18. Revisiting Organizational Credibility and Organizational Reputation – A Situational Crisis Communication Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Jamal Jamilah; Abu Bakar Hassan

    2017-01-01

    Organizational credibility, the extent of which an organization as the source of messages is perceived as trustworthy and reliable, is one important aspect to determine organization’s survival. The perceived credibility of the messages will either strengthen or worsen an organization reputation. The primary objective of this paper is to revisit the concept of organizational credibility and its interaction with organizational outcomes such as organizational reputation. Based on the situational...

  19. Operator entanglement of two-qubit joint unitary operations revisited: Schmidt number approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xia, Hui-Zhi; Li, Chao; Yang, Qing; Yang, Ming, E-mail: mingyang@ahu.edu.cn [Key Laboratory of Opto-electronic Information Acquisition and Manipulation, Ministry of Education, School of Physics and Material Science, Anhui University Hefei (China); Cao, Zhuo-Liang [School of Electronic Information Engineering, Hefei Normal University (China)

    2012-08-15

    The operator entanglement of two-qubit joint unitary operations is revisited. The Schmidt number, an important attribute of a two-qubit unitary operation, may have connection with the entanglement measure of the unitary operator. We find that the entanglement measure of a two-qubit unitary operators is classified by the Schmidt number of the unitary operators. We also discuss the exact relation between the operator entanglement and the parameters of the unitary operator. (author)

  20. Optimal causal inference: estimating stored information and approximating causal architecture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Still, Susanne; Crutchfield, James P; Ellison, Christopher J

    2010-09-01

    We introduce an approach to inferring the causal architecture of stochastic dynamical systems that extends rate-distortion theory to use causal shielding--a natural principle of learning. We study two distinct cases of causal inference: optimal causal filtering and optimal causal estimation. Filtering corresponds to the ideal case in which the probability distribution of measurement sequences is known, giving a principled method to approximate a system's causal structure at a desired level of representation. We show that in the limit in which a model-complexity constraint is relaxed, filtering finds the exact causal architecture of a stochastic dynamical system, known as the causal-state partition. From this, one can estimate the amount of historical information the process stores. More generally, causal filtering finds a graded model-complexity hierarchy of approximations to the causal architecture. Abrupt changes in the hierarchy, as a function of approximation, capture distinct scales of structural organization. For nonideal cases with finite data, we show how the correct number of the underlying causal states can be found by optimal causal estimation. A previously derived model-complexity control term allows us to correct for the effect of statistical fluctuations in probability estimates and thereby avoid overfitting.

  1. Causality and headache triggers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, Dana P.; Smitherman, Todd A.; Martin, Vincent T.; Penzien, Donald B.; Houle, Timothy T.

    2013-01-01

    Objective The objective of this study was to explore the conditions necessary to assign causal status to headache triggers. Background The term “headache trigger” is commonly used to label any stimulus that is assumed to cause headaches. However, the assumptions required for determining if a given stimulus in fact has a causal-type relationship in eliciting headaches have not been explicated. Methods A synthesis and application of Rubin’s Causal Model is applied to the context of headache causes. From this application the conditions necessary to infer that one event (trigger) causes another (headache) are outlined using basic assumptions and examples from relevant literature. Results Although many conditions must be satisfied for a causal attribution, three basic assumptions are identified for determining causality in headache triggers: 1) constancy of the sufferer; 2) constancy of the trigger effect; and 3) constancy of the trigger presentation. A valid evaluation of a potential trigger’s effect can only be undertaken once these three basic assumptions are satisfied during formal or informal studies of headache triggers. Conclusions Evaluating these assumptions is extremely difficult or infeasible in clinical practice, and satisfying them during natural experimentation is unlikely. Researchers, practitioners, and headache sufferers are encouraged to avoid natural experimentation to determine the causal effects of headache triggers. Instead, formal experimental designs or retrospective diary studies using advanced statistical modeling techniques provide the best approaches to satisfy the required assumptions and inform causal statements about headache triggers. PMID:23534872

  2. Causal relationship between malocclusion and oral muscles dysfunction: a model of approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saccomanno, S; Antonini, G; D'Alatri, L; D'Angelantonio, M; Fiorita, A; Deli, R

    2012-12-01

    Bad habits result in altered functions which with time can cause anomalies of the orofacial morphology. To solve these problems, orthodontic treatment can be supported by myofunctional therapy in order to recover the normal functionality of the oral muscles. The aim of this study is to assess the need to treat patients with neuromuscular disorders, from both the occlusion and the muscles condition approach in order to obtain the balance needed for the stability of treatment. A sample of 23 patients with atypical swallowing was included in this study, some of them presented thumb sucking and oral breathing. After case history collection, in order to make a correct orthodontic and functional diagnosis, correction of anomalies was carried out since they could compromise the success of the therapy (maxillary contraction, oral breathing, and short lingual fraenum). Then a different therapeutic approach was applied on the basis of the specific dental features. Both from the diagnostic and therapeutic point of view, important results were achieved especially through muscle analysis with dynamometer and surface electromyography. Orthodontic therapy, in the presence of bad habits, is not enough to solve orthodontic issues, it must be combined with a myofunctional treatment. The success of the therapy is granted only when patients and their family comply with the treatment and all factors which can prevent success of the therapy are removed.

  3. Explaining Racial Disparities in Child Asthma Readmission Using a Causal Inference Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beck, Andrew F; Huang, Bin; Auger, Katherine A; Ryan, Patrick H; Chen, Chen; Kahn, Robert S

    2016-07-01

    difference between African American and white children with respect to readmission hazard no longer reached the level of significance (hazard ratio, 1.18; 95% CI, 0.87-1.60; Cox P = .30 and log-rank P = .39). A total of 80% of the observed readmission disparity between African American and white children could be explained after statistically balancing available biologic, environmental, disease management, access to care, and socioeconomic and hardship variables across racial groups. Such a comprehensive, well-framed approach to exposures that are associated with morbidity is critical as we attempt to better understand and lessen persistent child asthma disparities.

  4. A broadened causality in variance approach to assess the risk dynamics between crude oil prices and the Jordanian stock market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bouri, Elie

    2015-01-01

    Within the new developed causality-in-variance approach, this paper builds up a broad methodological framework to more accurately capture the risk spillover effects between global oil prices and Jordanian stock market returns during the period 1 March 2003–31 January 2014. The sample period is divided, on the basis of the 2008 financial crisis, into pre-crisis and post-crisis periods. Results for the pre-crisis period show a lack of risk spillovers between global oil and the Jordanian stock market. After the crisis, however, we find evidence for one-way risk spillover running from the oil market. These findings have implications for the design of appropriate asset allocation and regulatory policies to manage risk spillover effects. -- Highlights: •A broad methodological framework accurately seizes dynamic risk spillover between oil prices and Jordanian stock returns. •We find insignificant risk spillover until the start of the financial crisis. •Crude oil transmits its risk to the Jordanian stock market

  5. Attribution and social cognitive neuroscience: a new approach for the "online-assessment" of causality ascriptions and their emotional consequences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terbeck, Sylvia; Chesterman, Paul; Fischmeister, Florian Ph S; Leodolter, Ulrich; Bauer, Herbert

    2008-08-15

    Attribution theory plays a central role in understanding cognitive processes that have emotional consequences; however, there has been very limited attention to its neural basis. After reviewing classical studies in social psychology in which attribution has been experimentally manipulated we developed a new approach that allows the investigation of state attributions and emotional consequences using neuroscience methodologies. Participants responded to the Erikson Flanker Task, but, in order to maintain the participant's beliefs about the nature of the task and to produce a significant number of error responses, an adaptive algorithm tuned the available time to respond such that, dependent on the subject's current performance, the negative feedback rate was held at chance level. In order to initiate variation in attribution participants were informed that one and the same task was either easy or difficult. As a result of these two different instructions the two groups differed significantly in error attribution only on the locus of causality dimension. Additionally, attributions were found to be stable over a large number of trials, while accuracy and reaction time remained the same. Thus, the new paradigm is particularly suitable for cognitive neuroscience research that evaluates brain behaviour relationships of higher order processes in 'simulated achievement settings'.

  6. The causal effect of red blood cell folate on genome-wide methylation in cord blood: a Mendelian randomization approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Binder, Alexandra M; Michels, Karin B

    2013-12-04

    Investigation of the biological mechanism by which folate acts to affect fetal development can inform appraisal of expected benefits and risk management. This research is ethically imperative given the ubiquity of folic acid fortified products in the US. Considering that folate is an essential component in the one-carbon metabolism pathway that provides methyl groups for DNA methylation, epigenetic modifications provide a putative molecular mechanism mediating the effect of folic acid supplementation on neonatal and pediatric outcomes. In this study we use a Mendelian Randomization Unnecessary approach to assess the effect of red blood cell (RBC) folate on genome-wide DNA methylation in cord blood. Site-specific CpG methylation within the proximal promoter regions of approximately 14,500 genes was analyzed using the Illumina Infinium Human Methylation27 Bead Chip for 50 infants from the Epigenetic Birth Cohort at Brigham and Women's Hospital in Boston. Using methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase genotype as the instrument, the Mendelian Randomization approach identified 7 CpG loci with a significant (mostly positive) association between RBC folate and methylation level. Among the genes in closest proximity to this significant subset of CpG loci, several enriched biologic processes were involved in nucleic acid transport and metabolic processing. Compared to the standard ordinary least squares regression method, our estimates were demonstrated to be more robust to unmeasured confounding. To the authors' knowledge, this is the largest genome-wide analysis of the effects of folate on methylation pattern, and the first to employ Mendelian Randomization to assess the effects of an exposure on epigenetic modifications. These results can help guide future analyses of the causal effects of periconceptional folate levels on candidate pathways.

  7. What matters to infrequent customers: a pragmatic approach to understanding perceived value and intention to revisit trendy coffee café.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ting, Hiram; Thurasamy, Ramayah

    2016-01-01

    Notwithstanding the rise of trendy coffee café, little is done to investigate revisit intention towards the café in the context of developing markets. In particular, there is a lack of study which provides theoretical and practical explanation to the perceptions and behaviours of infrequent customers. Hence, the study aims to look into the subject matter by using the theory of reasoned action and social exchange theory as the underpinning basis. The framework proposed by Pine and Gilmore (Strat Leadersh 28:18-23, 2000), which asserts the importance of product quality, service quality and experience quality in a progressive manner, is used to decompose perceived value in the model so as to determine their effects on intention to revisit the café. Given the importance to gain practical insights into revisit intention of infrequent customers, pragmatism stance is assumed. Explanatory sequential mixed-method design is thus adopted whereby qualitative approach is used to confirm and complement quantitative findings. Self-administered questionnaire-based survey is first administered before personal interview is carried out at various cafés. Partial least squares structural equation modelling and content analysis are appropriated successively. In the quantitative findings, although product quality, service quality and experience quality are found to have positive effect on perceived value and revisit intention towards trendy coffee café, experience quality is found to have the greater effect than the others among the infrequent customers. The qualitative findings not only confirm their importance, but most importantly explain the favourable impressions they have at trendy coffee café based on their last in-store experience. While product and service quality might not necessary stimulate them to revisit trendy coffee café, experience quality driven by purposes of visit would likely affect their intention to revisit. As retaining customers is of utmost importance to

  8. Causal inference in public health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glass, Thomas A; Goodman, Steven N; Hernán, Miguel A; Samet, Jonathan M

    2013-01-01

    Causal inference has a central role in public health; the determination that an association is causal indicates the possibility for intervention. We review and comment on the long-used guidelines for interpreting evidence as supporting a causal association and contrast them with the potential outcomes framework that encourages thinking in terms of causes that are interventions. We argue that in public health this framework is more suitable, providing an estimate of an action's consequences rather than the less precise notion of a risk factor's causal effect. A variety of modern statistical methods adopt this approach. When an intervention cannot be specified, causal relations can still exist, but how to intervene to change the outcome will be unclear. In application, the often-complex structure of causal processes needs to be acknowledged and appropriate data collected to study them. These newer approaches need to be brought to bear on the increasingly complex public health challenges of our globalized world.

  9. Revisiting Organizational Credibility and Organizational Reputation – A Situational Crisis Communication Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jamal Jamilah

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Organizational credibility, the extent of which an organization as the source of messages is perceived as trustworthy and reliable, is one important aspect to determine organization’s survival. The perceived credibility of the messages will either strengthen or worsen an organization reputation. The primary objective of this paper is to revisit the concept of organizational credibility and its interaction with organizational outcomes such as organizational reputation. Based on the situational crisis communication theory (SCCT, this paper focuses on the impact of organizational credibility on organizational reputation following a crisis. Even though the SCCT has been widely used in crisis communication research, the theory still has its own limitations in explaining factors that could potentially affect the reputation of an organization. This study proposes a model by integrating organizational credibility in the SCCT theoretical framework. Derived from the theoretical framework, three propositions are advanced to determine the relationships between organizational credibility with crisis responsibility and perceived organizational reputation. This paper contributes to further establishing the SCCT and posits key attributes in the organizational reputation processes..

  10. Introduction: revisiting the "negrito" hypothesis: a transdisciplinary approach to human prehistory in southeast Asia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Endicott, Phillip

    2013-01-01

    The "negrito" hypothesis predicts that a shared phenotype among various contemporary groups of hunter-gatherers in Southeast Asia--dark skin, short stature, tight curly hair--is due to common descent from a region-wide, pre-Neolithic substrate of humanity. The alternative is that their distinctive phenotype results from convergent evolution. The core issues of the negrito hypothesis are today more relevant than ever to studies of human evolution, including the out-of-Africa migration, admixture with Denisovans, and the effects of environment and ecology on life-history traits. Understanding the current distribution of the negrito phenotype dictates a wide-ranging remit for study, including the articulation of the relationship between foragers and farmers in the present, the development of settled agriculture in the mid-Holocene, and terminal Pleistocene population expansions. The consensus reached by the contributors to this special double issue of Human Biology is that there is not yet conclusive evidence either for or against the negrito hypothesis. Nevertheless, the process of revisiting the problem will benefit the knowledge of the human prehistory of Southeast Asia. Whether the term negrito accurately reflects the all-encompassing nature of the resulting inquiry is in itself questionable, but the publication of this double issue is testament to the enduring ability of this hypothesis to unite disparate academic disciplines in a common purpose. Copyright © 2013 Wayne State University Press, Detroit, Michigan 48201-1309.

  11. Causal inference based on counterfactuals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Höfler M

    2005-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The counterfactual or potential outcome model has become increasingly standard for causal inference in epidemiological and medical studies. Discussion This paper provides an overview on the counterfactual and related approaches. A variety of conceptual as well as practical issues when estimating causal effects are reviewed. These include causal interactions, imperfect experiments, adjustment for confounding, time-varying exposures, competing risks and the probability of causation. It is argued that the counterfactual model of causal effects captures the main aspects of causality in health sciences and relates to many statistical procedures. Summary Counterfactuals are the basis of causal inference in medicine and epidemiology. Nevertheless, the estimation of counterfactual differences pose several difficulties, primarily in observational studies. These problems, however, reflect fundamental barriers only when learning from observations, and this does not invalidate the counterfactual concept.

  12. Revisiting Pocos de Caldas. Application of the co-precipitation approach to establish realistic solubility limits for performance assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bruno, J.; Duro, L.; Jordana, S.; Cera, E.

    1996-02-01

    Solubility limits constitute a critical parameter for the determination of the mobility of radionuclides in the near field and the geosphere, and consequently for the performance assessment of nuclear waste repositories. Mounting evidence from natural system studies indicate that trace elements, and consequently radionuclides, are associated to the dynamic cycling of major geochemical components. We have recently developed a thermodynamic approach to take into consideration the co-precipitation and co-dissolution processes that mainly control this linkage. The approach has been tested in various natural system studies with encouraging results. The Pocos de Caldas natural analogue was one of the sites where a full testing of our predictive geochemical modelling capabilities were done during the analogue project. We have revisited the Pocos de Caldas data and expanded the trace element solubility calculations by considering the documented trace metal/major ion interactions. This has been done by using the co-precipitation/co-dissolution approach. The outcome is as follows: A satisfactory modelling of the behaviour of U, Zn and REEs is achieved by assuming co-precipitation with ferrihydrite. Strontium concentrations are apparently controlled by its co-dissolution from Sr-rich fluorites. From the performance assessment point of view, the present work indicates that calculated solubility limits using the co-precipitation approach are in close agreement with the actual trace element concentrations. Furthermore, the calculated radionuclide concentrations are 2-4 orders of magnitude lower than conservative solubility limits calculated by assuming equilibrium with individual trace element phases. 34 refs, 18 figs, 13 tabs

  13. Revisiting Pocos de Caldas. Application of the co-precipitation approach to establish realistic solubility limits for performance assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bruno, J.; Duro, L.; Jordana, S.; Cera, E. [QuantiSci, Barcelona (Spain)

    1996-02-01

    Solubility limits constitute a critical parameter for the determination of the mobility of radionuclides in the near field and the geosphere, and consequently for the performance assessment of nuclear waste repositories. Mounting evidence from natural system studies indicate that trace elements, and consequently radionuclides, are associated to the dynamic cycling of major geochemical components. We have recently developed a thermodynamic approach to take into consideration the co-precipitation and co-dissolution processes that mainly control this linkage. The approach has been tested in various natural system studies with encouraging results. The Pocos de Caldas natural analogue was one of the sites where a full testing of our predictive geochemical modelling capabilities were done during the analogue project. We have revisited the Pocos de Caldas data and expanded the trace element solubility calculations by considering the documented trace metal/major ion interactions. This has been done by using the co-precipitation/co-dissolution approach. The outcome is as follows: A satisfactory modelling of the behaviour of U, Zn and REEs is achieved by assuming co-precipitation with ferrihydrite. Strontium concentrations are apparently controlled by its co-dissolution from Sr-rich fluorites. From the performance assessment point of view, the present work indicates that calculated solubility limits using the co-precipitation approach are in close agreement with the actual trace element concentrations. Furthermore, the calculated radionuclide concentrations are 2-4 orders of magnitude lower than conservative solubility limits calculated by assuming equilibrium with individual trace element phases. 34 refs, 18 figs, 13 tabs.

  14. Exploring the relationship between child physical abuse and adult dating violence using a causal inference approach in an emerging adult population in South Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jennings, Wesley G; Park, MiRang; Richards, Tara N; Tomsich, Elizabeth; Gover, Angela; Powers, Ráchael A

    2014-12-01

    Child maltreatment is one of the most commonly examined risk factors for violence in dating relationships. Often referred to as the intergenerational transmission of violence or cycle of violence, a fair amount of research suggests that experiencing abuse during childhood significantly increases the likelihood of involvement in violent relationships later, but these conclusions are primarily based on correlational research designs. Furthermore, the majority of research linking childhood maltreatment and dating violence has focused on samples of young people from the United States. Considering these limitations, the current study uses a rigorous, propensity score matching approach to estimate the causal effect of experiencing child physical abuse on adult dating violence among a large sample of South Korean emerging adults. Results indicate that the link between child physical abuse and adult dating violence is spurious rather than causal. Study limitations and implications are discussed. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Keeping it real: revisiting a real-space approach to running ensembles of cosmological N-body simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Orban, Chris

    2013-01-01

    In setting up initial conditions for ensembles of cosmological N-body simulations there are, fundamentally, two choices: either maximizing the correspondence of the initial density field to the assumed fourier-space clustering or, instead, matching to real-space statistics and allowing the DC mode (i.e. overdensity) to vary from box to box as it would in the real universe. As a stringent test of both approaches, I perform ensembles of simulations using power law and a ''powerlaw times a bump'' model inspired by baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO), exploiting the self-similarity of these initial conditions to quantify the accuracy of the matter-matter two-point correlation results. The real-space method, which was originally proposed by Pen 1997 [1] and implemented by Sirko 2005 [2], performed well in producing the expected self-similar behavior and corroborated the non-linear evolution of the BAO feature observed in conventional simulations, even in the strongly-clustered regime (σ 8 ∼>1). In revisiting the real-space method championed by [2], it was also noticed that this earlier study overlooked an important integral constraint correction to the correlation function in results from the conventional approach that can be important in ΛCDM simulations with L box ∼ −1 Gpc and on scales r∼>L box /10. Rectifying this issue shows that the fourier space and real space methods are about equally accurate and efficient for modeling the evolution and growth of the correlation function, contrary to previous claims. An appendix provides a useful independent-of-epoch analytic formula for estimating the importance of the integral constraint bias on correlation function measurements in ΛCDM simulations

  16. The vacuum structure, special relativity theory and quantum mechanics revisited: a field theory-no-geometry approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bogolubov, N.N. Jr.; Prykarpatsky, A.K.; Ufuk Taneri

    2008-07-01

    The main fundamental principles characterizing the vacuum field structure are formulated and the modeling of the related vacuum medium and charged point particle dynamics by means of de- vised field theoretic tools are analyzed. The Maxwell electrodynamic theory is revisited and newly derived from the suggested vacuum field structure principles and the classical special relativity theory relationship between the energy and the corresponding point particle mass is revisited and newly obtained. The Lorentz force expression with respect to arbitrary non-inertial reference frames is revisited and discussed in detail, and some new interpretations of relations between the special relativity theory and quantum mechanics are presented. The famous quantum-mechanical Schroedinger type equations for a relativistic point particle in the external potential and magnetic fields within the quasiclassical approximation as the Planck constant (h/2π) → 0 and the light velocity c → ∞ are obtained. (author)

  17. A new approach to hierarchical data analysis: Targeted maximum likelihood estimation for the causal effect of a cluster-level exposure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balzer, Laura B; Zheng, Wenjing; van der Laan, Mark J; Petersen, Maya L

    2018-01-01

    We often seek to estimate the impact of an exposure naturally occurring or randomly assigned at the cluster-level. For example, the literature on neighborhood determinants of health continues to grow. Likewise, community randomized trials are applied to learn about real-world implementation, sustainability, and population effects of interventions with proven individual-level efficacy. In these settings, individual-level outcomes are correlated due to shared cluster-level factors, including the exposure, as well as social or biological interactions between individuals. To flexibly and efficiently estimate the effect of a cluster-level exposure, we present two targeted maximum likelihood estimators (TMLEs). The first TMLE is developed under a non-parametric causal model, which allows for arbitrary interactions between individuals within a cluster. These interactions include direct transmission of the outcome (i.e. contagion) and influence of one individual's covariates on another's outcome (i.e. covariate interference). The second TMLE is developed under a causal sub-model assuming the cluster-level and individual-specific covariates are sufficient to control for confounding. Simulations compare the alternative estimators and illustrate the potential gains from pairing individual-level risk factors and outcomes during estimation, while avoiding unwarranted assumptions. Our results suggest that estimation under the sub-model can result in bias and misleading inference in an observational setting. Incorporating working assumptions during estimation is more robust than assuming they hold in the underlying causal model. We illustrate our approach with an application to HIV prevention and treatment.

  18. Spectral dimension in causal set quantum gravity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eichhorn, Astrid; Mizera, Sebastian

    2014-01-01

    We evaluate the spectral dimension in causal set quantum gravity by simulating random walks on causal sets. In contrast to other approaches to quantum gravity, we find an increasing spectral dimension at small scales. This observation can be connected to the nonlocality of causal set theory that is deeply rooted in its fundamentally Lorentzian nature. Based on its large-scale behaviour, we conjecture that the spectral dimension can serve as a tool to distinguish causal sets that approximate manifolds from those that do not. As a new tool to probe quantum spacetime in different quantum gravity approaches, we introduce a novel dimensional estimator, the causal spectral dimension, based on the meeting probability of two random walkers, which respect the causal structure of the quantum spacetime. We discuss a causal-set example, where the spectral dimension and the causal spectral dimension differ, due to the existence of a preferred foliation. (paper)

  19. Causal Set Generator and Action Computer

    OpenAIRE

    Cunningham, William; Krioukov, Dmitri

    2017-01-01

    The causal set approach to quantum gravity has gained traction over the past three decades, but numerical experiments involving causal sets have been limited to relatively small scales. The software suite presented here provides a new framework for the generation and study of causal sets. Its efficiency surpasses previous implementations by several orders of magnitude. We highlight several important features of the code, including the compact data structures, the $O(N^2)$ causal set generatio...

  20. Temporal causality between house prices and output in the U.S.: a bootstrap rolling-window approach

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Nyakabawo, W

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available . Using quarterly data for all 379 metropolitan statistic areas (MSAs) in the U.S. from 1980:1 to 2008:2, Miller et al., (2011) empirically study the effect of house prices on local Gross Metropolitan Product (GMP). The paper concluded that house price... for lagged values of y . The Granger non-causality hypothesis tests a joint restriction, using the Wald, Lagrange multiplier (LM), and likelihood ratio (LR) statistics. These test statistics require stationary time series. If stationarity does not hold...

  1. Investigating the effect of external trauma through a dynamic system modeling approach for clustering causality in diabetic foot ulcer development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salimi, Parisa; Hamedi, Mohsen; Jamshidi, Nima; Vismeh, Milad

    2017-04-01

    Diabetes and its associated complications are realized as one of the most challenging medical conditions threatening more than 29 million people only in the USA. The forecasts suggest a suffering of more than half a billion worldwide by 2030. Amid all diabetic complications, diabetic foot ulcer (DFU) has attracted much scientific investigations to lead to a better management of this disease. In this paper, a system thinking methodology is adopted to investigate the dynamic nature of the ulceration. The causal loop diagram as a tool is utilized to illustrate the well-researched relations and interrelations between causes of the DFU. The result of clustering causality evaluation suggests a vicious loop that relates external trauma to callus. Consequently a hypothesis is presented which localizes development of foot ulceration considering distribution of normal and shear stress. It specifies that normal and tangential forces, as the main representatives of external trauma, play the most important role in foot ulceration. The evaluation of this hypothesis suggests the significance of the information related to both normal and shear stress for managing DFU. The results also discusses how these two react on different locations on foot such as metatarsal head, heel and hallux. The findings of this study can facilitate tackling the complexity of DFU problem and looking for constructive mitigation measures. Moreover they lead to developing a more promising methodology for managing DFU including better prognosis, designing prosthesis and insoles for DFU and patient caring recommendations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. An Online Causal Inference Framework for Modeling and Designing Systems Involving User Preferences: A State-Space Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ibrahim Delibalta

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available We provide a causal inference framework to model the effects of machine learning algorithms on user preferences. We then use this mathematical model to prove that the overall system can be tuned to alter those preferences in a desired manner. A user can be an online shopper or a social media user, exposed to digital interventions produced by machine learning algorithms. A user preference can be anything from inclination towards a product to a political party affiliation. Our framework uses a state-space model to represent user preferences as latent system parameters which can only be observed indirectly via online user actions such as a purchase activity or social media status updates, shares, blogs, or tweets. Based on these observations, machine learning algorithms produce digital interventions such as targeted advertisements or tweets. We model the effects of these interventions through a causal feedback loop, which alters the corresponding preferences of the user. We then introduce algorithms in order to estimate and later tune the user preferences to a particular desired form. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our algorithms through experiments in different scenarios.

  3. Discrete causal theory emergent spacetime and the causal metric hypothesis

    CERN Document Server

    Dribus, Benjamin F

    2017-01-01

    This book evaluates and suggests potentially critical improvements to causal set theory, one of the best-motivated approaches to the outstanding problems of fundamental physics. Spacetime structure is of central importance to physics beyond general relativity and the standard model. The causal metric hypothesis treats causal relations as the basis of this structure. The book develops the consequences of this hypothesis under the assumption of a fundamental scale, with smooth spacetime geometry viewed as emergent. This approach resembles causal set theory, but differs in important ways; for example, the relative viewpoint, emphasizing relations between pairs of events, and relationships between pairs of histories, is central. The book culminates in a dynamical law for quantum spacetime, derived via generalized path summation.

  4. Revisiting regional flood frequency analysis in Slovakia: the region-of-influence method vs. traditional regional approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaál, Ladislav; Kohnová, Silvia; Szolgay, Ján.

    2010-05-01

    During the last 10-15 years, the Slovak hydrologists and water resources managers have been devoting considerable efforts to develop statistical tools for modelling probabilities of flood occurrence in a regional context. Initially, these models followed concepts to regional flood frequency analysis that were based on fixed regions, later the Hosking and Wallis's (HW; 1997) theory was adopted and modified. Nevertheless, it turned out to be that delineating homogeneous regions using these approaches is not a straightforward task, mostly due to the complex orography of the country. In this poster we aim at revisiting flood frequency analyses so far accomplished for Slovakia by adopting one of the pooling approaches, i.e. the region-of-influence (ROI) approach (Burn, 1990). In the ROI approach, unique pooling groups of similar sites are defined for each site under study. The similarity of sites is defined through Euclidean distance in the space of site attributes that had also proved applicability in former cluster analyses: catchment area, afforested area, hydrogeological catchment index and the mean annual precipitation. The homogeneity of the proposed pooling groups is evaluated by the built-in homogeneity test by Lu and Stedinger (1992). Two alternatives of the ROI approach are examined: in the first one the target size of the pooling groups is adjusted to the target return period T of the estimated flood quantiles, while in the other one, the target size is fixed, regardless of the target T. The statistical models of the ROI approach are inter-compared by the conventional regionalization approach based on the HW methodology where the parameters of flood frequency distributions were derived by means of L-moment statistics and a regional formula for the estimation of the index flood was derived by multiple regression methods using physiographic and climatic catchment characteristics. The inter-comparison of different frequency models is evaluated by means of the

  5. Causality links among renewable energy consumption, CO2 emissions, and economic growth in Africa: evidence from a panel ARDL-PMG approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Attiaoui, Imed; Toumi, Hassen; Ammouri, Bilel; Gargouri, Ilhem

    2017-05-01

    This research examines the causality (For the remainder of the paper, the notion of causality refers to Granger causality.) links among renewable energy consumption (REC), CO 2 emissions (CE), non-renewable energy consumption (NREC), and economic growth (GDP) using an autoregressive distributed lag model based on the pooled mean group estimation (ARDL-PMG) and applying Granger causality tests for a panel consisting of 22 African countries for the period between 1990 and 2011. There is unidirectional and irreversible short-run causality from CE to GDP. The causal direction between CE and REC is unobservable over the short-term. Moreover, we find unidirectional, short-run causality from REC to GDP. When testing per pair of variables, there are short-run bidirectional causalities among REC, CE, and GDP. However, if we add CE to the variables REC and NREC, the causality to GDP is observable, and causality from the pair REC and NREC to economic growth is neutral. Likewise, if we add NREC to the variables GDP and REC, there is causality. There are bidirectional long-run causalities among REC, CE, and GDP, which supports the feedback assumption. Causality from GDP to REC is not strong for the panel. If we test per pair of variables, the strong causality from GDP and CE to REC is neutral. The long-run PMG estimates show that NREC and gross domestic product increase CE, whereas REC decreases CE.

  6. Revisiting the Concepts "Approach", "Design" and "Procedure" According to the Richards and Rodgers (2011) Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cumming, Brett

    2012-01-01

    The three concepts Approach, Design and Procedure as proposed in Rodgers' Framework are considered particularly effective as a framework in second language teaching with the specific aim of developing communication as well as for better understanding methodology in the use of communicative language use.

  7. Holland in Iceland Revisited: An Emic Approach to Evaluating U.S. Vocational Interest Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Einarsdottir, Sif; Rounds, James; Su, Rong

    2010-01-01

    An emic approach was used to test the structural validity and applicability of Holland's (1997) RIASEC (Realistic, Investigative, Artistic, Social, Enterprising, Conventional) model in Iceland. Archival data from the development of the Icelandic Interest Inventory (Einarsdottir & Rounds, 2007) were used in the present investigation. The data…

  8. The Two-Capacitor Problem Revisited: A Mechanical Harmonic Oscillator Model Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Keeyung

    2009-01-01

    The well-known two-capacitor problem, in which exactly half the stored energy disappears when a charged capacitor is connected to an identical capacitor, is discussed based on the mechanical harmonic oscillator model approach. In the mechanical harmonic oscillator model, it is shown first that "exactly half" the work done by a constant applied…

  9. Why Failing Terrorist Groups Persist Revisited: A Social Network Approach to AQIM Network Resilience

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-12-01

    the approach and methods used in this analysis to organize, analyze, and explore the geospatial, statistical , and social network data...requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE IN INFORMATION STRATEGY AND POLITICAL WARFARE from the NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL December...research utilizes both descriptive statistics and regression analysis of social network data to explore the changes within the AQIM network 2012

  10. The direction of causality between exports and firm performance: microeconomic evidence from Croatia using the matching approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miljana Valdec

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper contributes to the literature by using propensity score matching to test for causal effects of starting to export on firm performance in Croatian manufacturing firm-level data. The results confirm that exporters have characteristics superior to those of non-exporters. In the main sample specification there is pervasive evidence of self-selection into export markets, meaning that firms are successful years before they become exporters. Using multiple firm performance indicators, panel and cross section data models together with various sample specifications there is scant evidence on learning-by-exporting which holds true only in a few cases. On the other hand, higher sales growth is found to be a more conclusive distinguishing characteristic of new exporters. As in similar studies, we find that a part of the results depends on the number of export starters in the estimation sample.

  11. Lakatos Revisited.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Court, Deborah

    1999-01-01

    Revisits and reviews Imre Lakatos' ideas on "Falsification and the Methodology of Scientific Research Programmes." Suggests that Lakatos' framework offers an insightful way of looking at the relationship between theory and research that is relevant not only for evaluating research programs in theoretical physics, but in the social…

  12. Phillipson’s Linguistic Imperialism Revisited at the light of Latin American Decoloniality Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis Guillermo Barrantes-Montero

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available A summary of the book Linguistic Imperialism, by Phillipson (19922 is presented here. The purpose is to highlight its current scope and permanent values in consonance with intuitions, criticism and alternatives proposed by Latin America Modernity/coloniality Group. Criteria of analysis are based on a re-reading of the work in the light of the decolonial perspective, with the aim of proposing pedagogical insights which guide language and literature teachers in approaching their study contents with a critical vision. The idea is to remark the role of English Language Teaching for the maintenance of power structures and for its potential for creating new epistemological approaches to language teaching and learning. An epistemological turnaround in the linguistic formation of future educational personnel is a must for that end.

  13. The (water + acetonitrile) mixture revisited: A new approach for calculating partial molar volumes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carmen Grande, Maria del; Julia, Jorge Alvarez; Barrero, Carmen R.; Marschoff, Carlos M.; Bianchi, Hugo L.

    2006-01-01

    Density and viscosity of (water + acetonitrile) mixtures were measured over the whole composition range at the temperatures: (298.15, 303.15, 308.15, 313.15, and 318.15) K. A new mathematical approach was developed which allows the calculation of the derivatives of density with respect to composition avoiding the appearance of local discontinuities. Thus, reliable partial molar volumes and thermal expansion coefficients were obtained

  14. Production competence revisited:a critique of the literature and a new measurement approach

    OpenAIRE

    Szász, Levente; Demeter, Krisztina; Boer, Harry

    2015-01-01

    Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to seek remedy to two major flaws of the production competence literature, which concern: the way the production competence construct is operationalized and the way its effects on performance are measured.Design/methodology/approach – The paper proposes to measure production competence as the two-dimensional operational level construct it actually is, and to use Slack’s (1994) importance performance matrix to study its business level performance effects....

  15. Mad genius revisited: Vulnerability to psychopathology, biobehavioral approach-avoidance, and creativity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baas, Matthijs; Nijstad, Bernard A; Boot, Nathalie C; De Dreu, Carsten K W

    2016-06-01

    Although many believe that creativity associates with a vulnerability to psychopathology, research findings are inconsistent. Here we address this possible linkage between risk of psychopathology and creativity in nonclinical samples. We propose that propensity for specific psychopathologies can be linked to basic motivational approach and avoidance systems, and that approach and avoidance motivation differentially influences creativity. Based on this reasoning, we predict that propensity for approach-based psychopathologies (e.g., positive schizotypy and risk of bipolar disorder) associates with increased creativity, whereas propensity for avoidance-based psychopathologies (e.g., anxiety, negative schizotypy, and depressive mood) associates with reduced creativity. Previous meta-analyses resonate with this proposition and showed small positive relations between positive schizotypy and creativity and small negative relations between negative schizotypy and creativity and between anxiety and creativity. To this we add new meta-analytic findings showing that risk of bipolar disorder (e.g., hypomania, mania) positively associates with creativity (k = 28, r = .224), whereas depressive mood negatively associates (albeit weakly) with creativity (k = 39, r = -.064). Our theoretical framework, along with the meta-analytic results, indicates when and why specific psychopathologies, and their inclinations, associate with increased or, instead, reduced creativity. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  16. Revisiting support optimization at the Driskos tunnel using a quantitative risk approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Connor Langford

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available With the scale and cost of geotechnical engineering projects increasing rapidly over the past few decades, there is a clear need for the careful consideration of calculated risks in design. While risk is typically dealt with subjectively through the use of conservative design parameters, with the advent of reliability-based methods, this no longer needs to be the case. Instead, a quantitative risk approach can be considered that incorporates uncertainty in ground conditions directly into the design process to determine the variable ground response and support loads. This allows for the optimization of support on the basis of both worker safety and economic risk. This paper presents the application of such an approach to review the design of the initial lining system along a section of the Driskos twin tunnels as part of the Egnatia Odos highway in northern Greece. Along this section of tunnel, weak rock masses were encountered as well as high in situ stress conditions, which led to excessive deformations and failure of the as built temporary support. Monitoring data were used to validate the rock mass parameters selected in this area and a risk approach was used to determine, in hindsight, the most appropriate support category with respect to the cost of installation and expected cost of failure. Different construction sequences were also considered in the context of both convenience and risk cost.

  17. Causally nonseparable processes admitting a causal model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Feix, Adrien; Araújo, Mateus; Brukner, Caslav

    2016-01-01

    A recent framework of quantum theory with no global causal order predicts the existence of ‘causally nonseparable’ processes. Some of these processes produce correlations incompatible with any causal order (they violate so-called ‘causal inequalities’ analogous to Bell inequalities ) while others do not (they admit a ‘causal model’ analogous to a local model ). Here we show for the first time that bipartite causally nonseparable processes with a causal model exist, and give evidence that they have no clear physical interpretation. We also provide an algorithm to generate processes of this kind and show that they have nonzero measure in the set of all processes. We demonstrate the existence of processes which stop violating causal inequalities but are still causally nonseparable when mixed with a certain amount of ‘white noise’. This is reminiscent of the behavior of Werner states in the context of entanglement and nonlocality. Finally, we provide numerical evidence for the existence of causally nonseparable processes which have a causal model even when extended with an entangled state shared among the parties. (paper)

  18. Revisiting the cape cod bacteria injection experiment using a stochastic modeling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maxwell, R.M.; Welty, C.; Harvey, R.W.

    2007-01-01

    Bromide and resting-cell bacteria tracer tests conducted in a sandy aquifer at the U.S. Geological Survey Cape Cod site in 1987 were reinterpreted using a three-dimensional stochastic approach. Bacteria transport was coupled to colloid filtration theory through functional dependence of local-scale colloid transport parameters upon hydraulic conductivity and seepage velocity in a stochastic advection - dispersion/attachment - detachment model. Geostatistical information on the hydraulic conductivity (K) field that was unavailable at the time of the original test was utilized as input. Using geostatistical parameters, a groundwater flow and particle-tracking model of conservative solute transport was calibrated to the bromide-tracer breakthrough data. An optimization routine was employed over 100 realizations to adjust the mean and variance ofthe natural-logarithm of hydraulic conductivity (InK) field to achieve best fit of a simulated, average bromide breakthrough curve. A stochastic particle-tracking model for the bacteria was run without adjustments to the local-scale colloid transport parameters. Good predictions of mean bacteria breakthrough were achieved using several approaches for modeling components of the system. Simulations incorporating the recent Tufenkji and Elimelech (Environ. Sci. Technol. 2004, 38, 529-536) correlation equation for estimating single collector efficiency were compared to those using the older Rajagopalan and Tien (AIChE J. 1976, 22, 523-533) model. Both appeared to work equally well at predicting mean bacteria breakthrough using a constant mean bacteria diameter for this set of field conditions. Simulations using a distribution of bacterial cell diameters available from original field notes yielded a slight improvement in the model and data agreement compared to simulations using an average bacterial diameter. The stochastic approach based on estimates of local-scale parameters for the bacteria-transport process reasonably captured

  19. Defining Jazz Revisited - Taking a social constructionist approach to the characterisation of jazz

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Høyer, Ole Izard

    2017-01-01

    the concept of jazz from a social constructionist perspective and examines how constructions of a genre formation of jazz are characterised by ideas about the social. It is argued that ‘characterisations of jazz’ are central to such genre-definitions and are as tightly bound to social context......This article reconsiders the definition of jazz as a case study in relation to how a musical genre is constituted through narratives of culture and identity in musical culture. Rethinking the definition of jazz as a way of characterisation through a social constructionist approach, this article...

  20. The two-capacitor problem revisited: a mechanical harmonic oscillator model approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Keeyung

    2009-01-01

    The well-known two-capacitor problem, in which exactly half the stored energy disappears when a charged capacitor is connected to an identical capacitor, is discussed based on the mechanical harmonic oscillator model approach. In the mechanical harmonic oscillator model, it is shown first that exactly half the work done by a constant applied force is dissipated irrespective of the form of dissipation mechanism when the system comes to a new equilibrium after a constant force is abruptly applied. This model is then applied to the energy loss mechanism in the capacitor charging problem or the two-capacitor problem. This approach allows a simple explanation of the energy dissipation mechanism in these problems and shows that the dissipated energy should always be exactly half the supplied energy whether that is caused by the Joule heat or by the radiation. This paper, which provides a simple treatment of the energy dissipation mechanism in the two-capacitor problem, is suitable for all undergraduate levels

  1. THE NOTION OF AUTHENTICITY REVISITED A SEARCH FOR URBAN HERITAGE CONSERVATION APPROACH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Widjaja Martokusumo

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available During the last five decades urban heritage conservation has evolved significantly as an urban design discipline which is nec-essary for dealing with older urban areas that were once reduced to being the locus of monuments worthy of architectural conservation. Recent international experiences highlight conflicting interests in term of intention and focus, between archaeologist, who focus on monument restoration, and urban designers, who emphasize the need of conserving the spirit of the past. Nonetheless, a new understand-ing about urban heritage was materialized from the latest urban conservation praxis involving archaeologists, urban planners, urban de-signers and architects. The new insight about urban heritage has brought new approaches to urban conservation during recent decades. The latest of these approaches aim at the creation of enjoyable urban experiences that have a historical identity, rather at the simple re-tention of authentic urban history. In fact, urban heritage conservation is not simply a matter of preserving and creating harmonious constellation between historic fabrics and new infill developments, but rather a continuing project in shaping the environment. Based on several observations, this paper discusses that historic fabrics contribute considerably in place making, in enriching the quality of a place and offer opportunities for cultural appreciation. Thus, creating a sense of place is more than to the exact restoration of urban details. It also argues the importance of the making of interesting and liveable urban quarters that guarantee social, cultural and environmental sustainability.

  2. The Indian Summer Monsoon onset revisited: new approach based on the analysis of historical wind observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ordoñez, Paulina; Gallego, David; Ribera, Pedro; Peña-Ortiz, Cristina; Garcia-Herrera, Ricardo; Vega, Inmaculada; Gómez, Francisco de Paula

    2016-04-01

    The Indian Summer Monsoon onset is one of the meteorological events most anticipated in the world. Due to its relevance for the population, the India Meteorological Department has dated the onset over the southern tip of the Indian Peninsula (Kerala) since 1901. The traditional method to date the onset was based in the judgment of skilled meteorologist and because of this, the method was considered subjective and not adequate for the study of long-term changes in the onset. A new method for determining the monsoon onset based solely on objective criteria has been in use since 2006. Unfortunately, the new method relies -among other variables- on OLR measurements. This requirement impedes the construction of an objective onset series before the satellite era. An alternative approach to establish the onset by objective methods is the use of the wind field. During the last decade, some works have demonstrated that the changes in the wind direction in some areas of the Indian Ocean can be used to determine the monsoon onset rather precisely. However, this method requires precise wind observations over a large oceanic area which has limited the periods covered for such kind of indices to those of the reanalysis products. In this work we present a new approach to track the Indian monsoon onset based solely on historical wind direction measurements taken onboard ships. Our new series provides an objective record of the onset since the last decade of the 19th century and perhaps more importantly, it can incorporate any new historical wind record not yet known in order to extend the series length. The new series captures quite precisely the rapid precipitation increase associated to the monsoon onset, correlates well with previous approaches and it is robust against anomalous (bogus) onsets. Although no significant trends in the onset date were detected, a tendency to later than average onsets during the 1900-1925 and 1970-1990 periods and earlier than average onsets between

  3. MultiPaths Revisited - A novel approach using OpenFlow-enabled devices

    CERN Document Server

    Al-Shabibi, Ali; Martin, Brian

    2011-06-11

    This thesis presents novel approaches enhancing the performance of computer networks using multipaths. Our enhancements take the form of congestion-aware routing protocols. We present three protocols called MultiRoute, Step-Route, and finally PathRoute. Each of these protocols leverage both local and remote congestion statistics and build different representations (or views) of the network congestion by using an innovative representation of congestion for router-router links. These congestion statistics are then distributed via an aggregation protocol to other routers in the network. For many years, multipath routing protocols have only been used in simple situations, such as Link Aggregation and/or networks where paths of equal cost (and therefore equal delay) exist. But, paths of unequal costs are often discarded to the benefit of shortest path only routing because it is known that paths of unequal length present different delays and therefore cause out of order packets which cause catastrophic network per...

  4. Revisiting video game ratings: Shift from content-centric to parent-centric approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiow Hee Jhee

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The rapid adoption of video gaming among children has placed tremendous strain on parents’ ability to manage their children’s consumption. While parents refer online to video games ratings (VGR information to support their mediation efforts, there are many difficulties associated with such practice. This paper explores the popular VGR sites, and highlights the inadequacies of VGRs to capture the parents’ concerns, such as time displacement, social interactions, financial spending and various video game effects, beyond the widespread panics over content issues, that is subjective, ever-changing and irrelevant. As such, this paper argues for a shift from content-centric to a parent-centric approach in VGRs, that captures the evolving nature of video gaming, and support parents, the main users of VGRs, in their management of their young video gaming children. This paper proposes a Video Games Repository for Parents to represent that shift.

  5. Elders and patient participation revisited - a discourse analytic approach to older persons' reflections on patient participation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foss, Christina

    2011-07-01

    This study focuses on how older persons' accounts of participation might be framed and constructed based on their social and historical situatedness. The picture emerging from contemporary research tends to portray older people as a group who prefer to leave decisions to the professionals during a hospital stay. Through an approach that sought to contextualise the respondents' accounts of participation, different features of patient participation became visible. The study is based on a postmodern framework using a discursive approach, informed by the works of Foucault and on works that have been developed in line with his main ideas. Eighteen individual in-depth interviews with older people (age 80+) were conducted between one to two weeks after discharge from hospital. Findings indicate that older people actively position themselves in relation to various discourses at play in the hospital, and display a wide variety of strategies aimed at gaining influence. To the older persons in this study, participation was practised in a subtle and discreet way, as a matter of choosing a good strategy to interact with the personnel. Participation was also seen as a matter of balancing their own needs against the needs of others and as a behaviour that required self-confidence. The accounts of patient participation given by the older persons differed from the dominant and taken-for-granted discourse of patient participation as a right. As the older persons' understanding and practice of patient participation do not 'fit' the contemporary idea of participation, it is in danger of being ignored or overlooked by care-givers as well as by researchers. To identify older patients' wish to participate, one must actively search for it. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  6. What matters to infrequent customers: a pragmatic approach to understanding perceived value and intention to revisit trendy coffee caf?

    OpenAIRE

    Ting, Hiram; Thurasamy, Ramayah

    2016-01-01

    Notwithstanding the rise of trendy coffee caf?, little is done to investigate revisit intention towards the caf? in the context of developing markets. In particular, there is a lack of study which provides theoretical and practical explanation to the perceptions and behaviours of infrequent customers. Hence, the study aims to look into the subject matter by using the theory of reasoned action and social exchange theory as the underpinning basis. The framework proposed by Pine and Gilmore (Str...

  7. Revisiting photodynamic therapy dosimetry: reductionist and surrogate approaches to facilitate clinical success

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pogue, Brian W; Elliott, Jonathan T; Kanick, Stephen C; Davis, Scott C; Samkoe, Kimberley S; Maytin, Edward V; Pereira, Stephen P; Hasan, Tayyaba

    2016-01-01

    Photodynamic therapy (PDT) can be a highly complex treatment, with many parameters influencing treatment efficacy. The extent to which dosimetry is used to monitor and standardize treatment delivery varies widely, ranging from measurement of a single surrogate marker to comprehensive approaches that aim to measure or estimate as many relevant parameters as possible. Today, most clinical PDT treatments are still administered with little more than application of a prescribed drug dose and timed light delivery, and thus the role of patient-specific dosimetry has not reached widespread clinical adoption. This disconnect is at least partly due to the inherent conflict between the need to measure and understand multiple parameters in vivo in order to optimize treatment, and the need for expedience in the clinic and in the regulatory and commercialization process. Thus, a methodical approach to selecting primary dosimetry metrics is required at each stage of translation of a treatment procedure, moving from complex measurements to understand PDT mechanisms in pre-clinical and early phase I trials, towards the identification and application of essential dose-limiting and/or surrogate measurements in phase II/III trials. If successful, identifying the essential and/or reliable surrogate dosimetry measurements should help facilitate increased adoption of clinical PDT. In this paper, examples of essential dosimetry points and surrogate dosimetry tools that may be implemented in phase II/III trials are discussed. For example, the treatment efficacy as limited by light penetration in interstitial PDT may be predicted by the amount of contrast uptake in CT, and so this could be utilized as a surrogate dosimetry measurement to prescribe light doses based upon pre-treatment contrast. Success of clinical ALA-based skin lesion treatment is predicted almost uniquely by the explicit or implicit measurements of photosensitizer and photobleaching, yet the individualization of treatment

  8. Revisiting photodynamic therapy dosimetry: reductionist & surrogate approaches to facilitate clinical success

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pogue, Brian W.; Elliott, Jonathan T.; Kanick, Stephen C.; Davis, Scott C.; Samkoe, Kimberley S.; Maytin, Edward V.; Pereira, Stephen P.; Hasan, Tayyaba

    2016-04-01

    Photodynamic therapy (PDT) can be a highly complex treatment, with many parameters influencing treatment efficacy. The extent to which dosimetry is used to monitor and standardize treatment delivery varies widely, ranging from measurement of a single surrogate marker to comprehensive approaches that aim to measure or estimate as many relevant parameters as possible. Today, most clinical PDT treatments are still administered with little more than application of a prescribed drug dose and timed light delivery, and thus the role of patient-specific dosimetry has not reached widespread clinical adoption. This disconnect is at least partly due to the inherent conflict between the need to measure and understand multiple parameters in vivo in order to optimize treatment, and the need for expedience in the clinic and in the regulatory and commercialization process. Thus, a methodical approach to selecting primary dosimetry metrics is required at each stage of translation of a treatment procedure, moving from complex measurements to understand PDT mechanisms in pre-clinical and early phase I trials, towards the identification and application of essential dose-limiting and/or surrogate measurements in phase II/III trials. If successful, identifying the essential and/or reliable surrogate dosimetry measurements should help facilitate increased adoption of clinical PDT. In this paper, examples of essential dosimetry points and surrogate dosimetry tools that may be implemented in phase II/III trials are discussed. For example, the treatment efficacy as limited by light penetration in interstitial PDT may be predicted by the amount of contrast uptake in CT, and so this could be utilized as a surrogate dosimetry measurement to prescribe light doses based upon pre-treatment contrast. Success of clinical ALA-based skin lesion treatment is predicted almost uniquely by the explicit or implicit measurements of photosensitizer and photobleaching, yet the individualization of treatment

  9. Automated service quality and its behavioural consequences in CRM Environment: A structural equation modeling and causal loop diagramming approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arup Kumar Baksi

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Information technology induced communications (ICTs have revolutionized the operational aspects of service sector and have triggered a perceptual shift in service quality as rapid dis-intermediation has changed the access-mode of services on part of the consumers. ICT-enabled services further stimulated the perception of automated service quality with renewed dimensions and there subsequent significance to influence the behavioural outcomes of the consumers. Customer Relationship Management (CRM has emerged as an offshoot to technological breakthrough as it ensured service-encapsulation by integrating people, process and technology. This paper attempts to explore the relationship between automated service quality and its behavioural consequences in a relatively novel business-philosophy – CRM. The study has been conducted on the largest public sector bank of India - State bank of India (SBI at Kolkata which has successfully completed its decade-long operational automation in the year 2008. The study used structural equation modeling (SEM to justify the proposed model construct and causal loop diagramming (CLD to depict the negative and positive linkages between the variables.

  10. An Alternative Approach to Analyze Ipsative Data. Revisiting Experiential Learning Theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Batista-Foguet, Joan M; Ferrer-Rosell, Berta; Serlavós, Ricard; Coenders, Germà; Boyatzis, Richard E

    2015-01-01

    The ritualistic use of statistical models regardless of the type of data actually available is a common practice across disciplines which we dare to call type zero error. Statistical models involve a series of assumptions whose existence is often neglected altogether, this is specially the case with ipsative data. This paper illustrates the consequences of this ritualistic practice within Kolb's Experiential Learning Theory (ELT) operationalized through its Learning Style Inventory (KLSI). We show how using a well-known methodology in other disciplines-compositional data analysis (CODA) and log ratio transformations-KLSI data can be properly analyzed. In addition, the method has theoretical implications: a third dimension of the KLSI is unveiled providing room for future research. This third dimension describes an individual's relative preference for learning by prehension rather than by transformation. Using a sample of international MBA students, we relate this dimension with another self-assessment instrument, the Philosophical Orientation Questionnaire (POQ), and with an observer-assessed instrument, the Emotional and Social Competency Inventory (ESCI-U). Both show plausible statistical relationships. An intellectual operating philosophy (IOP) is linked to a preference for prehension, whereas a pragmatic operating philosophy (POP) is linked to transformation. Self-management and social awareness competencies are linked to a learning preference for transforming knowledge, whereas relationship management and cognitive competencies are more related to approaching learning by prehension.

  11. An alternative approach to analyze Ipsative data. Revisiting Experiential Learning Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joan Manuel eBatista-Foguet

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The ritualistic use of statistical models regardless of the type of data actually available is a common practice across disciplines. Statistical models involve a series of assumptions whose existence is often neglected altogether, thus making the mentioned common practice even more pervasive. This paper illustrates the consequences of this ritualistic practice within Kolb’s Experiential Learning Theory (ELT operationalized through its Learning Style Inventory (KLSI. We show how using a well-known methodology in other disciplines -compositional data analysis (CODA- KLSI data can be properly analyzed. In addition, a third dimension of the KLSI is unveiled providing room for future research. This third dimension describes an individual’s relative preference for learning by prehension rather than by transformation. Using a sample of European MBA students, we relate this dimension with another self-assessment instrument, the Philosophical Orientation Questionnaire (POQ, and with an observer-assessed instrument, the Emotional and Social Inventory (ESCI-U. Both show plausible statistical relationships. An intellectual operating philosophy is linked to a preference for prehension, whereas a pragmatic operating philosophy is linked to transformation. Self-management and social awareness competencies are linked to a learning preference for transforming knowledge, whereas relationship management and cognitive competencies are more related to approaching learning by prehension.

  12. Planktonic food webs revisited: Reanalysis of results from the linear inverse approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hlaili, Asma Sakka; Niquil, Nathalie; Legendre, Louis

    2014-01-01

    Identification of the trophic pathway that dominates a given planktonic assemblage is generally based on the distribution of biomasses among food-web compartments, or better, the flows of materials or energy among compartments. These flows are obtained by field observations and a posteriori analyses, including the linear inverse approach. In the present study, we re-analysed carbon flows obtained by inverse analysis at 32 stations in the global ocean and one large lake. Our results do not support two "classical" views of plankton ecology, i.e. that the herbivorous food web is dominated by mesozooplankton grazing on large phytoplankton, and the microbial food web is based on microzooplankton significantly consuming bacteria; our results suggest instead that phytoplankton are generally grazed by microzooplankton, of which they are the main food source. Furthermore, we identified the "phyto-microbial food web", where microzooplankton largely feed on phytoplankton, in addition to the already known "poly-microbial food web", where microzooplankton consume more or less equally various types of food. These unexpected results led to a (re)definition of the conceptual models corresponding to the four trophic pathways we found to exist in plankton, i.e. the herbivorous, multivorous, and two types of microbial food web. We illustrated the conceptual trophic pathways using carbon flows that were actually observed at representative stations. The latter can be calibrated to correspond to any field situation. Our study also provides researchers and managers with operational criteria for identifying the dominant trophic pathway in a planktonic assemblage, these criteria being based on the values of two carbon ratios that could be calculated from flow values that are relatively easy to estimate in the field.

  13. Bayesian networks improve causal environmental ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rule-based weight of evidence approaches to ecological risk assessment may not account for uncertainties and generally lack probabilistic integration of lines of evidence. Bayesian networks allow causal inferences to be made from evidence by including causal knowledge about the problem, using this knowledge with probabilistic calculus to combine multiple lines of evidence, and minimizing biases in predicting or diagnosing causal relationships. Too often, sources of uncertainty in conventional weight of evidence approaches are ignored that can be accounted for with Bayesian networks. Specifying and propagating uncertainties improve the ability of models to incorporate strength of the evidence in the risk management phase of an assessment. Probabilistic inference from a Bayesian network allows evaluation of changes in uncertainty for variables from the evidence. The network structure and probabilistic framework of a Bayesian approach provide advantages over qualitative approaches in weight of evidence for capturing the impacts of multiple sources of quantifiable uncertainty on predictions of ecological risk. Bayesian networks can facilitate the development of evidence-based policy under conditions of uncertainty by incorporating analytical inaccuracies or the implications of imperfect information, structuring and communicating causal issues through qualitative directed graph formulations, and quantitatively comparing the causal power of multiple stressors on value

  14. Sensemaking Revisited

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holt, Robin; Cornelissen, Joep

    2014-01-01

    We critique and extend theory on organizational sensemaking around three themes. First, we investigate sense arising non-productively and so beyond any instrumental relationship with things; second, we consider how sense is experienced through mood as well as our cognitive skills of manipulation ...... research by revisiting Weick’s seminal reading of Norman Maclean’s book surrounding the tragic events of a 1949 forest fire at Mann Gulch, USA....

  15. Campbell's and Rubin's Perspectives on Causal Inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    West, Stephen G.; Thoemmes, Felix

    2010-01-01

    Donald Campbell's approach to causal inference (D. T. Campbell, 1957; W. R. Shadish, T. D. Cook, & D. T. Campbell, 2002) is widely used in psychology and education, whereas Donald Rubin's causal model (P. W. Holland, 1986; D. B. Rubin, 1974, 2005) is widely used in economics, statistics, medicine, and public health. Campbell's approach focuses on…

  16. Causal reasoning in physics

    CERN Document Server

    Frisch, Mathias

    2014-01-01

    Much has been written on the role of causal notions and causal reasoning in the so-called 'special sciences' and in common sense. But does causal reasoning also play a role in physics? Mathias Frisch argues that, contrary to what influential philosophical arguments purport to show, the answer is yes. Time-asymmetric causal structures are as integral a part of the representational toolkit of physics as a theory's dynamical equations. Frisch develops his argument partly through a critique of anti-causal arguments and partly through a detailed examination of actual examples of causal notions in physics, including causal principles invoked in linear response theory and in representations of radiation phenomena. Offering a new perspective on the nature of scientific theories and causal reasoning, this book will be of interest to professional philosophers, graduate students, and anyone interested in the role of causal thinking in science.

  17. Theories of Causality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Robert

    2010-03-01

    There are a wide range of views on causality. To some (e.g. Karl Popper) causality is superfluous. Bertrand Russell said ``In advanced science the word cause never occurs. Causality is a relic of a bygone age.'' At the other extreme Rafael Sorkin and L. Bombelli suggest that space and time do not exist but are only an approximation to a reality that is simply a discrete ordered set, a ``causal set.'' For them causality IS reality. Others, like Judea Pearl and Nancy Cartwright are seaking to build a complex fundamental theory of causality (Causality, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2000) Or perhaps a theory of causality is simply the theory of functions. This is more or less my take on causality.

  18. Causality in Science

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristina Puente Águeda

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Causality is a fundamental notion in every field of science. Since the times of Aristotle, causal relationships have been a matter of study as a way to generate knowledge and provide for explanations. In this paper I review the notion of causality through different scientific areas such as physics, biology, engineering, etc. In the scientific area, causality is usually seen as a precise relation: the same cause provokes always the same effect. But in the everyday world, the links between cause and effect are frequently imprecise or imperfect in nature. Fuzzy logic offers an adequate framework for dealing with imperfect causality, so a few notions of fuzzy causality are introduced.

  19. mediation: R Package for Causal Mediation Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dustin Tingley

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we describe the R package mediation for conducting causal mediation analysis in applied empirical research. In many scientific disciplines, the goal of researchers is not only estimating causal effects of a treatment but also understanding the process in which the treatment causally affects the outcome. Causal mediation analysis is frequently used to assess potential causal mechanisms. The mediation package implements a comprehensive suite of statistical tools for conducting such an analysis. The package is organized into two distinct approaches. Using the model-based approach, researchers can estimate causal mediation effects and conduct sensitivity analysis under the standard research design. Furthermore, the design-based approach provides several analysis tools that are applicable under different experimental designs. This approach requires weaker assumptions than the model-based approach. We also implement a statistical method for dealing with multiple (causally dependent mediators, which are often encountered in practice. Finally, the package also offers a methodology for assessing causal mediation in the presence of treatment noncompliance, a common problem in randomized trials.

  20. Reasoning with Causal Cycles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rehder, Bob

    2017-01-01

    This article assesses how people reason with categories whose features are related in causal cycles. Whereas models based on causal graphical models (CGMs) have enjoyed success modeling category-based judgments as well as a number of other cognitive phenomena, CGMs are only able to represent causal structures that are acyclic. A number of new…

  1. Charged singularities: the causality violation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    De Felice, F; Nobili, L [Padua Univ. (Italy). Ist. di Fisica; Calvani, M [Padua Univ. (Italy). Ist. di Astronomia

    1980-12-01

    A search is made for examples of particle trajectories which, approaching a naked singularity from infinity, make up for lost time before going back to infinity. In the Kerr-Newman metric a whole family of such trajectories is found showing that the causality violation is indeed a non-avoidable pathology.

  2. Tourists' perceptions and intention to revisit Norway

    OpenAIRE

    Lazar, Ana Florina; Komolikova-Blindheim, Galyna

    2016-01-01

    Purpose - The overall purpose of this study is to explore tourists' perceptions and their intention to revisit Norway. The aim is to find out what are the factors that drive the overall satisfaction, the willingness to recommend and the revisit intention of international tourists that spend their holiday in Norway. Design-Method-Approach - the Theory of Planned Behavior (Ajzen 1991), is used as a framework to investigate tourists' intention and behavior towards Norway as destination. The o...

  3. Counterfactual overdetermination vs. the causal exclusion problem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sparber, Georg

    2005-01-01

    This paper aims to show that a counterfactual approach to causation is not sufficient to provide a solution to the causal exclusion problem in the form of systematic overdetermination. Taking into account the truthmakers of causal counterfactuals provides a strong argument in favour of the identity of causes in situations of translevel, causation.

  4. Revisiting essential hypertension--a "mechanism-based" approach may argue for a better definition of hypertension.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calò, L A

    2009-08-01

    Several major overarching themes have recently emerged in our understanding of the pathophysiology of hypertension which may allow to revisit essential hypertension with an eye towards the possibility of adopting a more rational "mechanistic-based" definition of hypertension and moving away from the unsatisfactory "essential" label for hypertension from unknown cause. As our understanding of the biochemical and physiological mechanisms that control blood pressure rapidly evolves, the "essential" label of hypertension is losing both value as well as utility as it will describe an increasingly small number of hypertensive patients. This paper uses some recently identified pathways central to hypertension and uses this understanding of pathophysiology to argue for a better definition of hypertension.

  5. Causal imprinting in causal structure learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Eric G; Ahn, Woo-Kyoung

    2012-11-01

    Suppose one observes a correlation between two events, B and C, and infers that B causes C. Later one discovers that event A explains away the correlation between B and C. Normatively, one should now dismiss or weaken the belief that B causes C. Nonetheless, participants in the current study who observed a positive contingency between B and C followed by evidence that B and C were independent given A, persisted in believing that B causes C. The authors term this difficulty in revising initially learned causal structures "causal imprinting." Throughout four experiments, causal imprinting was obtained using multiple dependent measures and control conditions. A Bayesian analysis showed that causal imprinting may be normative under some conditions, but causal imprinting also occurred in the current study when it was clearly non-normative. It is suggested that causal imprinting occurs due to the influence of prior knowledge on how reasoners interpret later evidence. Consistent with this view, when participants first viewed the evidence showing that B and C are independent given A, later evidence with only B and C did not lead to the belief that B causes C. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Exploring complex causal pathways between urban renewal, health and health inequality using a theory-driven realist approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehdipanah, Roshanak; Manzano, Ana; Borrell, Carme; Malmusi, Davide; Rodriguez-Sanz, Maica; Greenhalgh, Joanne; Muntaner, Carles; Pawson, Ray

    2015-01-01

    Urban populations are growing and to accommodate these numbers, cities are becoming more involved in urban renewal programs to improve the physical, social and economic conditions in different areas. This paper explores some of the complexities surrounding the link between urban renewal, health and health inequalities using a theory-driven approach. We focus on an urban renewal initiative implemented in Barcelona, the Neighbourhoods Law, targeting Barcelona's (Spain) most deprived neighbourhoods. We present evidence from two studies on the health evaluation of the Neighbourhoods Law, while drawing from recent urban renewal literature, to follow a four-step process to develop a program theory. We then use two specific urban renewal interventions, the construction of a large central plaza and the repair of streets and sidewalks, to further examine this link. In order for urban renewal programs to affect health and health inequality, neighbours must use and adapt to the changes produced by the intervention. However, there exist barriers that can result in negative outcomes including factors such as accessibility, safety and security. This paper provides a different perspective to the field that is largely dominated by traditional quantitative studies that are not always able to address the complexities such interventions provide. Furthermore, the framework and discussions serve as a guide for future research, policy development and evaluation. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Developing a Causal Model of Human and Organizational Culture Factors Affecting the Knowledge Management Maturity Using Meta-Synthesis Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Younis Jabarzadeh

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Identifying influential factors which contribute to the knowledge management maturity and studying their interaction over time helps managers to understand the complex behavior of knowledge management system. It also leads them to make right decisions for utilizing these factors in promoting knowledge management and achieve strategic goals of the organization by providing a sound insight and an appropriate mechanism to reach to the optimal maturity level. In this study, all aspects and components of knowledge management with an emphasis on human factors and organizational culture, and relations between them have been identified by using a systematic literature review and meta-synthesis qualitative research approach. Then by using consultation and consensus of experts, all results verified. The results include 64 codes which are classified in 9 dimensions and two categories. Finally, due to the obtained classification and their relations, the dynamic model of knowledge management maturity is presented. The results of this study could be a suitable framework for improving mental models of knowledge management executives and experts. It makes possible Developing dynamic analysis models and appropriate policies in order to improve the knowledge management maturity in organizations.

  8. Is computer availability at home causally related to reading achievement in grade 4? A longitudinal difference in differences approach to IEA data from 1991 to 2006

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Monica Rosén

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Research on effects of home computer use on children’s development of cognitive abilities and skills has yielded conflicting results, with some studies showing positive effects, others no effects, and yet others negative effects. These studies have typically used non-experimental designs and one of the main reasons for the conflicting results is that studies differ with respect to how well they control for selection bias in comparisons of children with different amounts of computer use. The current study takes advantage of data from international comparative studies of educational achievement and uses the trend design of these studies to conduct longitudinal analyses at the country level. This allows for a difference in differences approach which effectively controls for within-country selection bias, time-invariant country-level omitted variables, and random errors of measurement in the independent and dependent variables. The empirical investigations are based on data from the IEA 10-Year Trend Study and the PIRLS 2001 and 2006 studies. For these studies, information about frequency of home computer use is available in the student questionnaire. The main analytical approach employed in the paper is regression estimation based on micro-data, with fixed country effects and cluster-robust standard-errors. This approach allows estimation of main effects of home computer use and interaction effects with student characteristics (gender and socio-economic status. For both data sets negative effects of home computer use on achievement are found. Results are discussed in substantive and methodological terms, focusing particularly on possible threats to valid causal inference, such as omitted variables that are not time invariant.

  9. Repeated causal decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagmayer, York; Meder, Björn

    2013-01-01

    Many of our decisions refer to actions that have a causal impact on the external environment. Such actions may not only allow for the mere learning of expected values or utilities but also for acquiring knowledge about the causal structure of our world. We used a repeated decision-making paradigm to examine what kind of knowledge people acquire in such situations and how they use their knowledge to adapt to changes in the decision context. Our studies show that decision makers' behavior is strongly contingent on their causal beliefs and that people exploit their causal knowledge to assess the consequences of changes in the decision problem. A high consistency between hypotheses about causal structure, causally expected values, and actual choices was observed. The experiments show that (a) existing causal hypotheses guide the interpretation of decision feedback, (b) consequences of decisions are used to revise existing causal beliefs, and (c) decision makers use the experienced feedback to induce a causal model of the choice situation even when they have no initial causal hypotheses, which (d) enables them to adapt their choices to changes of the decision problem. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved).

  10. Logistics Innovation Process Revisited

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gammelgaard, Britta; Su, Shong-Iee Ivan; Yang, Su-Lan

    2011-01-01

    Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to learn more about logistics innovation processes and their implications for the focal organization as well as the supply chain, especially suppliers. Design/methodology/approach – The empirical basis of the study is a longitudinal action research project...... that was triggered by the practical needs of new ways of handling material flows of a hospital. This approach made it possible to revisit theory on logistics innovation process. Findings – Apart from the tangible benefits reported to the case hospital, five findings can be extracted from this study: the logistics...... innovation process model may include not just customers but also suppliers; logistics innovation in buyer-supplier relations may serve as an alternative to outsourcing; logistics innovation processes are dynamic and may improve supplier partnerships; logistics innovations in the supply chain are as dependent...

  11. Klein's double discontinuity revisited

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Winsløw, Carl; Grønbæk, Niels

    2014-01-01

    Much effort and research has been invested into understanding and bridging the ‘gaps’ which many students experience in terms of contents and expectations as they begin university studies with a heavy component of mathematics, typically in the form of calculus courses. We have several studies...... of bridging measures, success rates and many other aspects of these “entrance transition” problems. In this paper, we consider the inverse transition, experienced by university students as they revisit core parts of high school mathematics (in particular, calculus) after completing the undergraduate...... mathematics courses which are mandatory to become a high school teacher of mathematics. To what extent does the “advanced” experience enable them to approach the high school calculus in a deeper and more autonomous way ? To what extent can “capstone” courses support such an approach ? How could it be hindered...

  12. Repair of Partly Misspecified Causal Diagrams.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oates, Chris J; Kasza, Jessica; Simpson, Julie A; Forbes, Andrew B

    2017-07-01

    Errors in causal diagrams elicited from experts can lead to the omission of important confounding variables from adjustment sets and render causal inferences invalid. In this report, a novel method is presented that repairs a misspecified causal diagram through the addition of edges. These edges are determined using a data-driven approach designed to provide improved statistical efficiency relative to de novo structure learning methods. Our main assumption is that the expert is "directionally informed," meaning that "false" edges provided by the expert would not create cycles if added to the "true" causal diagram. The overall procedure is cast as a preprocessing technique that is agnostic to subsequent causal inferences. Results based on simulated data and data derived from an observational cohort illustrate the potential for data-assisted elicitation in epidemiologic applications. See video abstract at, http://links.lww.com/EDE/B208.

  13. Repeated Causal Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagmayer, York; Meder, Bjorn

    2013-01-01

    Many of our decisions refer to actions that have a causal impact on the external environment. Such actions may not only allow for the mere learning of expected values or utilities but also for acquiring knowledge about the causal structure of our world. We used a repeated decision-making paradigm to examine what kind of knowledge people acquire in…

  14. Viscous causal cosmologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Novello, M.; Salim, J.M.; Torres, J.; Oliveira, H.P. de

    1989-01-01

    A set of spatially homogeneous and isotropic cosmological geometries generated by a class of non-perfect is investigated fluids. The irreversibility if this system is studied in the context of causal thermodynamics which provides a useful mechanism to conform to the non-violation of the causal principle. (author) [pt

  15. Causality in Classical Electrodynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Savage, Craig

    2012-01-01

    Causality in electrodynamics is a subject of some confusion, especially regarding the application of Faraday's law and the Ampere-Maxwell law. This has led to the suggestion that we should not teach students that electric and magnetic fields can cause each other, but rather focus on charges and currents as the causal agents. In this paper I argue…

  16. Causality in Europeanization Research

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lynggaard, Kennet

    2012-01-01

    to develop discursive institutional analytical frameworks and something that comes close to the formulation of hypothesis on the effects of European Union (EU) policies and institutions on domestic change. Even if these efforts so far do not necessarily amount to substantive theories or claims of causality......Discourse analysis as a methodology is perhaps not readily associated with substantive causality claims. At the same time the study of discourses is very much the study of conceptions of causal relations among a set, or sets, of agents. Within Europeanization research we have seen endeavours......, it suggests that discourse analysis and the study of causality are by no means opposites. The study of Europeanization discourses may even be seen as an essential step in the move towards claims of causality in Europeanization research. This chapter deals with the question of how we may move from the study...

  17. Agency, time and causality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas eWidlok

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Cognitive Scientists interested in causal cognition increasingly search for evidence from non-WEIRD people but find only very few cross-cultural studies that specifically target causal cognition. This article suggests how information about causality can be retrieved from ethnographic monographs, specifically from ethnographies that discuss agency and concepts of time. Many apparent cultural differences with regard to causal cognition dissolve when cultural extensions of agency and personhood to non-humans are taken into account. At the same time considerable variability remains when we include notions of time, linearity and sequence. The article focuses on ethnographic case studies from Africa but provides a more general perspective on the role of ethnography in research on the diversity and universality of causal cognition.

  18. Non-Causal Computation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ämin Baumeler

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Computation models such as circuits describe sequences of computation steps that are carried out one after the other. In other words, algorithm design is traditionally subject to the restriction imposed by a fixed causal order. We address a novel computing paradigm beyond quantum computing, replacing this assumption by mere logical consistency: We study non-causal circuits, where a fixed time structure within a gate is locally assumed whilst the global causal structure between the gates is dropped. We present examples of logically consistent non-causal circuits outperforming all causal ones; they imply that suppressing loops entirely is more restrictive than just avoiding the contradictions they can give rise to. That fact is already known for correlations as well as for communication, and we here extend it to computation.

  19. Revisiting Hansen Solubility Parameters by Including Thermodynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Louwerse, Manuel J; Fernández-Maldonado, Ana María; Rousseau, Simon; Moreau-Masselon, Chloe; Roux, Bernard; Rothenberg, Gadi

    2017-01-01

    The Hansen solubility parameter approach is revisited by implementing the thermodynamics of dissolution and mixing. Hansen's pragmatic approach has earned its spurs in predicting solvents for polymer solutions, but for molecular solutes improvements are needed. By going into the details of entropy

  20. Causality re-established.

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Ariano, Giacomo Mauro

    2018-07-13

    Causality has never gained the status of a 'law' or 'principle' in physics. Some recent literature has even popularized the false idea that causality is a notion that should be banned from theory. Such misconception relies on an alleged universality of the reversibility of the laws of physics, based either on the determinism of classical theory, or on the multiverse interpretation of quantum theory, in both cases motivated by mere interpretational requirements for realism of the theory. Here, I will show that a properly defined unambiguous notion of causality is a theorem of quantum theory, which is also a falsifiable proposition of the theory. Such a notion of causality appeared in the literature within the framework of operational probabilistic theories. It is a genuinely theoretical notion, corresponding to establishing a definite partial order among events, in the same way as we do by using the future causal cone on Minkowski space. The notion of causality is logically completely independent of the misidentified concept of 'determinism', and, being a consequence of quantum theory, is ubiquitous in physics. In addition, as classical theory can be regarded as a restriction of quantum theory, causality holds also in the classical case, although the determinism of the theory trivializes it. I then conclude by arguing that causality naturally establishes an arrow of time. This implies that the scenario of the 'block Universe' and the connected 'past hypothesis' are incompatible with causality, and thus with quantum theory: they are both doomed to remain mere interpretations and, as such, are not falsifiable, similar to the hypothesis of 'super-determinism'.This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Foundations of quantum mechanics and their impact on contemporary society'. © 2018 The Author(s).

  1. Remembered Experiences and Revisit Intentions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barnes, Stuart; Mattsson, Jan; Sørensen, Flemming

    2016-01-01

    Tourism is an experience-intensive sector in which customers seek and pay for experiences above everything else. Remembering past tourism experiences is also crucial for an understanding of the present, including the predicted behaviours of visitors to tourist destinations. We adopt a longitudinal...... approach to memory data collection from psychological science, which has the potential to contribute to our understanding of tourist behaviour. In this study, we examine the impact of remembered tourist experiences in a safari park. In particular, using matched survey data collected longitudinally and PLS...... path modelling, we examine the impact of positive affect tourist experiences on the development of revisit intentions. We find that longer-term remembered experiences have the strongest impact on revisit intentions, more so than predicted or immediate memory after an event. We also find that remembered...

  2. Can chance cause cancer? A causal consideration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stensrud, Mats Julius; Strohmaier, Susanne; Valberg, Morten; Aalen, Odd Olai

    2017-04-01

    The role of randomness, environment and genetics in cancer development is debated. We approach the discussion by using the potential outcomes framework for causal inference. By briefly considering the underlying assumptions, we suggest that the antagonising views arise due to estimation of substantially different causal effects. These effects may be hard to interpret, and the results cannot be immediately compared. Indeed, it is not clear whether it is possible to define a causal effect of chance at all. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. The mistake of the causal relationship

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    О. Д. Комаров

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with issues of the mistake of the causal relationship. The modern criminal law science approaches to the content of the mistake of the causal relationship and its significance to the qualification of the crime are described. It is proved that in cases of dolus generalis different mental attitude of the guilty person to two separate acts of his conduct exist. Consequently, in mentioned above cases mistake of the causal relationship does not have place. The rules of qualification of the crimes commited with the mistake of causation and in cases of dolus generalis are proposed .

  4. Revisiting drought impact on tropical forest photosynthesis: a novel multi-scale integrated approach reveals new insights

    Science.gov (United States)

    Detto, M.; Wu, J.; Xu, X.; Serbin, S.; Rogers, A.

    2017-12-01

    A fundamental unanswered question for global change ecology is to determine the vulnerability of tropical forests to climate change, particularly with increasing intensity and frequency of drought events. This question, despite its apparent simplicity, remains difficult for earth system models to answer, and is controversial in remote sensing literature. Here, we leverage unique multi-scale remote sensing measurements (from leaf to crown) in conjunction with four-continuous-year (2013-2017) eddy covariance measurements of ecosystem carbon fluxes in a tropical forest in Panama to revisit this question. We hypothesize that drought impacts tropical forest photosynthesis through variation in abiotic drivers (solar radiation, diffuse light fraction, and vapor pressure deficit) that interact with physiological traits that govern photosynthesis, and biotic variation in ecosystem photosynthetic capacity associated with changes in the traits themselves. Our study site, located in a seasonal tropical forest on Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama, experienced a significant drought in 2015. Local eddy covariance derived photosynthesis shows an abrupt increase during the drought year. Our specific goal here is to assess the relative impact of abiotic and biotic drivers of such photosynthesis response to interannual drought. To this goal, we derived abiotic drivers from eddy tower-based meteorological measurements. We will derive the biotic drivers using a recently developed leaf demography-ontogeny model, where ecosystem photosynthetic capacity can be described as the product of field measured, age-dependent leaf photosynthetic capacity and local tower-camera derived ecosystem-scale inter-annual variability in leaf age demography of the same time period (2013-2017). Lastly, we will use a process-based model to assess the separate and joint effects of abiotic and biotic drivers on eddy covariance derive photosynthetic interannual variability. Collectively, this novel multi

  5. Interactions of information transfer along separable causal paths

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Peishi; Kumar, Praveen

    2018-04-01

    Complex systems arise as a result of interdependences between multiple variables, whose causal interactions can be visualized in a time-series graph. Transfer entropy and information partitioning approaches have been used to characterize such dependences. However, these approaches capture net information transfer occurring through a multitude of pathways involved in the interaction and as a result mask our ability to discern the causal interaction within a subgraph of interest through specific pathways. We build on recent developments of momentary information transfer along causal paths proposed by Runge [Phys. Rev. E 92, 062829 (2015), 10.1103/PhysRevE.92.062829] to develop a framework for quantifying information partitioning along separable causal paths. Momentary information transfer along causal paths captures the amount of information transfer between any two variables lagged at two specific points in time. Our approach expands this concept to characterize the causal interaction in terms of synergistic, unique, and redundant information transfer through separable causal paths. Through a graphical model, we analyze the impact of the separable and nonseparable causal paths and the causality structure embedded in the graph as well as the noise effect on information partitioning by using synthetic data generated from two coupled logistic equation models. Our approach can provide a valuable reference for an autonomous information partitioning along separable causal paths which form a causal subgraph influencing a target.

  6. The Continuum Limit of Causal Fermion Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Finster, Felix

    2016-01-01

    This monograph introduces the basic concepts of the theory of causal fermion systems, a recent approach to the description of fundamental physics. The theory yields quantum mechanics, general relativity and quantum field theory as limiting cases and is therefore a candidate for a unified physical theory. From the mathematical perspective, causal fermion systems provide a general framework for describing and analyzing non-smooth geometries and "quantum geometries." The dynamics is described by...

  7. Tachyons and causal paradoxes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maund, J.B.

    1979-01-01

    Although the existence of tachyons is not ruled out by special relativity, it appears that causal paradoxes will arise if there are tachyons. The usual solutions to these paradoxes employ some form of the reinterpretation principle. In this paper it is argued first that, the principle is incoherent, second, that even if it is not, some causal paradoxes remain, and third, the most plausible ''solution,'' which appeals to boundary conditions of the universe, will conflict with special relativity

  8. Dynamics and causality constraints

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sousa, Manoelito M. de

    2001-04-01

    The physical meaning and the geometrical interpretation of causality implementation in classical field theories are discussed. Causality in field theory are kinematical constraints dynamically implemented via solutions of the field equation, but in a limit of zero-distance from the field sources part of these constraints carries a dynamical content that explains old problems of classical electrodynamics away with deep implications to the nature of physicals interactions. (author)

  9. How applicable is export-led growth and import-led growth hypotheses to South African economy? The VECM and causality approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ntebogang Dinah Moroke

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigated exports, imports and the economic growth nexus in the context of South Africa. The paper sets out to examine if long-run and causal relationships exist between these variables. Quarterly time series data ranging between 1998 and 2013 obtained from the South African Reserve Bank and Quantec databases was employed. Initial data analysis proved that the variables are integrated at their levels. The results further indicated that exports, imports and economic growth are co-integrated, confirming an existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship. Granger causal results were shown running from exports and imports to GDP and from imports to exports, validating export-led and import-led growth hypotheses in South Africa. A significant causality running from imports to exports, suggests that South Africa imported finished goods in excess. If this is not avoided, lots of problems could be caused. A suggestion was made to avoid such problematic issues as they may lead to replaced domestic output and displacement of employees. Another dreadful ramification may be an adverse effect on the economy which may further be experienced in the long-run

  10. Causality discovery technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, M.; Ertl, T.; Jirotka, M.; Trefethen, A.; Schmidt, A.; Coecke, B.; Bañares-Alcántara, R.

    2012-11-01

    Causality is the fabric of our dynamic world. We all make frequent attempts to reason causation relationships of everyday events (e.g., what was the cause of my headache, or what has upset Alice?). We attempt to manage causality all the time through planning and scheduling. The greatest scientific discoveries are usually about causality (e.g., Newton found the cause for an apple to fall, and Darwin discovered natural selection). Meanwhile, we continue to seek a comprehensive understanding about the causes of numerous complex phenomena, such as social divisions, economic crisis, global warming, home-grown terrorism, etc. Humans analyse and reason causality based on observation, experimentation and acquired a priori knowledge. Today's technologies enable us to make observations and carry out experiments in an unprecedented scale that has created data mountains everywhere. Whereas there are exciting opportunities to discover new causation relationships, there are also unparalleled challenges to benefit from such data mountains. In this article, we present a case for developing a new piece of ICT, called Causality Discovery Technology. We reason about the necessity, feasibility and potential impact of such a technology.

  11. A quantum causal discovery algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giarmatzi, Christina; Costa, Fabio

    2018-03-01

    Finding a causal model for a set of classical variables is now a well-established task—but what about the quantum equivalent? Even the notion of a quantum causal model is controversial. Here, we present a causal discovery algorithm for quantum systems. The input to the algorithm is a process matrix describing correlations between quantum events. Its output consists of different levels of information about the underlying causal model. Our algorithm determines whether the process is causally ordered by grouping the events into causally ordered non-signaling sets. It detects if all relevant common causes are included in the process, which we label Markovian, or alternatively if some causal relations are mediated through some external memory. For a Markovian process, it outputs a causal model, namely the causal relations and the corresponding mechanisms, represented as quantum states and channels. Our algorithm opens the route to more general quantum causal discovery methods.

  12. Causal symmetric spaces

    CERN Document Server

    Olafsson, Gestur; Helgason, Sigurdur

    1996-01-01

    This book is intended to introduce researchers and graduate students to the concepts of causal symmetric spaces. To date, results of recent studies considered standard by specialists have not been widely published. This book seeks to bring this information to students and researchers in geometry and analysis on causal symmetric spaces.Includes the newest results in harmonic analysis including Spherical functions on ordered symmetric space and the holmorphic discrete series and Hardy spaces on compactly casual symmetric spacesDeals with the infinitesimal situation, coverings of symmetric spaces, classification of causal symmetric pairs and invariant cone fieldsPresents basic geometric properties of semi-simple symmetric spacesIncludes appendices on Lie algebras and Lie groups, Bounded symmetric domains (Cayley transforms), Antiholomorphic Involutions on Bounded Domains and Para-Hermitian Symmetric Spaces

  13. Causal inference in econometrics

    CERN Document Server

    Kreinovich, Vladik; Sriboonchitta, Songsak

    2016-01-01

    This book is devoted to the analysis of causal inference which is one of the most difficult tasks in data analysis: when two phenomena are observed to be related, it is often difficult to decide whether one of them causally influences the other one, or whether these two phenomena have a common cause. This analysis is the main focus of this volume. To get a good understanding of the causal inference, it is important to have models of economic phenomena which are as accurate as possible. Because of this need, this volume also contains papers that use non-traditional economic models, such as fuzzy models and models obtained by using neural networks and data mining techniques. It also contains papers that apply different econometric models to analyze real-life economic dependencies.

  14. The Future of Engineering Education--Revisited

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wankat, Phillip C.; Bullard, Lisa G.

    2016-01-01

    This paper revisits the landmark CEE series, "The Future of Engineering Education," published in 2000 (available free in the CEE archives on the internet) to examine the predictions made in the original paper as well as the tools and approaches documented. Most of the advice offered in the original series remains current. Despite new…

  15. Revisiting the time until fixation of a neutral mutant in a finite population - A coalescent theory approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenbaum, Gili

    2015-09-07

    Evaluation of the time scale of the fixation of neutral mutations is crucial to the theoretical understanding of the role of neutral mutations in evolution. Diffusion approximations of the Wright-Fisher model are most often used to derive analytic formulations of genetic drift, as well as for the time scales of the fixation of neutral mutations. These approximations require a set of assumptions, most notably that genetic drift is a stochastic process in a continuous allele-frequency space, an assumption appropriate for large populations. Here equivalent approximations are derived using a coalescent theory approach which relies on a different set of assumptions than the diffusion approach, and adopts a discrete allele-frequency space. Solutions for the mean and variance of the time to fixation of a neutral mutation derived from the two approaches converge for large populations but slightly differ for small populations. A Markov chain analysis of the Wright-Fisher model for small populations is used to evaluate the solutions obtained, showing that both the mean and the variance are better approximated by the coalescent approach. The coalescence approximation represents a tighter upper-bound for the mean time to fixation than the diffusion approximation, while the diffusion approximation and coalescence approximation form an upper and lower bound, respectively, for the variance. The converging solutions and the small deviations of the two approaches strongly validate the use of diffusion approximations, but suggest that coalescent theory can provide more accurate approximations for small populations. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Spatial hypersurfaces in causal set cosmology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Major, Seth A; Rideout, David; Surya, Sumati

    2006-01-01

    Within the causal set approach to quantum gravity, a discrete analogue of a spacelike region is a set of unrelated elements, or an antichain. In the continuum approximation of the theory, a moment-of-time hypersurface is well represented by an inextendible antichain. We construct a richer structure corresponding to a thickening of this antichain containing non-trivial geometric and topological information. We find that covariant observables can be associated with such thickened antichains and transitions between them, in classical sequential growth models of causal sets. This construction highlights the difference between the covariant measure on causal set cosmology and the standard sum-over-histories approach: the measure is assigned to completed histories rather than to histories on a restricted spacetime region. The resulting re-phrasing of the sum-over-histories may be fruitful in other approaches to quantum gravity

  17. Revisiting liquid lubrication methods by means of a fully coupled approach combining plastic deformation and liquid lubrication

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Üstünyagiz, Esmeray; Christiansen, Peter; Nielsen, Chris Valentin

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents a new approach based on a fully coupled procedure in which the lubricant flow and the plasticdeformation of the metallic material in metal forming are solved simultaneously. The proposed method is an alternativeto conventional modelling techniques which allow studying the effect...... andanalytical model, and by variations in drawing speed. Good agreement is found with the experimental observations....

  18. Dualism revisited.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Searle, John R

    2007-01-01

    The problem of consciousness should eventually receive a scientific solution, but there are a number of scientific and philosophical obstacles along the way. I offer solutions to the philosophical problems and proposals for approaching the scientific problems.

  19. Maximally causal quantum mechanics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roy, S.M.

    1998-01-01

    We present a new causal quantum mechanics in one and two dimensions developed recently at TIFR by this author and V. Singh. In this theory both position and momentum for a system point have Hamiltonian evolution in such a way that the ensemble of system points leads to position and momentum probability densities agreeing exactly with ordinary quantum mechanics. (author)

  20. Causality in demand

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Max; Jensen, Frank; Setälä, Jari

    2011-01-01

    to fish demand. On the German market for farmed trout and substitutes, it is found that supply sources, i.e. aquaculture and fishery, are not the only determinant of causality. Storing, tightness of management and aggregation level of integrated markets might also be important. The methodological...

  1. Causality and Free Will

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Hvorecký, Juraj

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 19, Supp.2 (2012), s. 64-69 ISSN 1335-0668 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GAP401/12/0833 Institutional support: RVO:67985955 Keywords : conciousness * free will * determinism * causality Subject RIV: AA - Philosophy ; Religion

  2. Explaining through causal mechanisms

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Biesbroek, Robbert; Dupuis, Johann; Wellstead, Adam

    2017-01-01

    This paper synthesizes and builds on recent critiques of the resilience literature; namely that the field has largely been unsuccessful in capturing the complexity of governance processes, in particular cause–effects relationships. We demonstrate that absence of a causal model is reflected in the

  3. A social impact assessment of the floodwater spreading project on the Gareh-Bygone plain in Iran: A causal comparative approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahmadvand, Mostafa; Karami, Ezatollah

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to explore the social impacts of the floodwater spreading project (FWSP) on the Gareh-Bygone plain, Iran. The study was in the form of a causal comparative design, and a triangulation technique was used to collect data including the use of survey data, archival data, and a participatory rural appraisal (PRA). The causal comparative method requires a comparison of villages with and without the FWSP. Therefore, a survey was conducted using stratified random sampling to select 202 households in villages with and without FWSP in the plain. Significant differences were found between the respondents in villages with and without FWSP with regard to social impact criteria. In spite of the project had negative impact on perceived wellbeing, social capital, social structure development; it had positive impact on quality of life, rural and agricultural economic conditions, and conservation of community resources. However, no significant difference was found between women and men regarding the SIA of FWSP in Gareh-Bygone plain. Analysis of the archival data and PRA techniques supported the survey results and demonstrated that the project improved environmental criteria and deteriorated social dimensions

  4. Twixt Pragmatism and Idealism: British Approaches to the Balkan Policy Revisited (the late 19th/early 20th Century

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O I Aganson

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of the article is to define how home debates on international issues influence a state's foreign policy. This task was undertaken on the pattern of Britain's policy in the Balkans in the late 19th/early 20th century. The author examines the role played by the radicals (left-wing liberals in formulating Britain's approaches to the Eastern question. It is stated that the interaction between the Foreign Office and the radicals rendered British policy in the Balkans more flexible.

  5. Cultura Revisited

    Science.gov (United States)

    Furstenberg, Gilberte; English, Kathryn

    2016-01-01

    Two of the original authors of "Giving a Virtual Voice to the Silent Language of Culture: The Cultura Project", published in "Language Learning & Technology" in 2001, look back on the origin of the Cultura project, its goals, and the approach and materials used. Their commentary then focuses on the features and the…

  6. Oxidative phosphorylation revisited

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nath, Sunil; Villadsen, John

    2015-01-01

    The fundamentals of oxidative phosphorylation and photophosphorylation are revisited. New experimental data on the involvement of succinate and malate anions respectively in oxidative phosphorylation and photophosphorylation are presented. These new data offer a novel molecular mechanistic...

  7. Gravity and matter in causal set theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sverdlov, Roman; Bombelli, Luca

    2009-01-01

    The goal of this paper is to propose an approach to the formulation of dynamics for causal sets and coupled matter fields. We start from the continuum version of the action for a Klein-Gordon field coupled to gravity, and rewrite it first using quantities that have a direct correspondent in the case of a causal set, namely volumes, causal relations and timelike lengths, as variables to describe the geometry. In this step, the local Lagrangian density L(f;x) for a set of fields f is recast into a quasilocal expression L 0 (f;p,q) that depends on pairs of causally related points pprq and is a function of the values of f in the Alexandrov set defined by those points, and whose limit as p and q approach a common point x is L(f;x). We then describe how to discretize L 0 (f;p,q) and use it to define a causal-set-based action.

  8. Superconductivity revisited

    CERN Document Server

    Dougherty, Ralph

    2013-01-01

    While the macroscopic phenomenon of superconductivity is well known and in practical use worldwide in many industries, including MRIs in medical diagnostics, the current theoretical paradigm for superconductivity (BCS theory) suffers from a number of limitations, not the least of which is an adequate explanation of high temperature superconductivity. This book reviews the current theory and its limitations and suggests new ideas and approaches in addressing these issues. The central objective of the book is to develop a new, coherent, understandable theory of superconductivity directly based on molecular quantum mechanics.

  9. Operator ordering and causality

    OpenAIRE

    Plimak, L. I.; Stenholm, S. T.

    2011-01-01

    It is shown that causality violations [M. de Haan, Physica 132A, 375, 397 (1985)], emerging when the conventional definition of the time-normal operator ordering [P.L.Kelley and W.H.Kleiner, Phys.Rev. 136, A316 (1964)] is taken outside the rotating wave approximation, disappear when the amended definition [L.P. and S.S., Annals of Physics, 323, 1989 (2008)] of this ordering is used.

  10. Space, time and causality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lucas, J.R.

    1984-01-01

    Originating from lectures given to first year undergraduates reading physics and philosophy or mathematics and philosophy, formal logic is applied to issues and the elucidation of problems in space, time and causality. No special knowledge of relativity theory or quantum mechanics is needed. The text is interspersed with exercises and each chapter is preceded by a suggested 'preliminary reading' and followed by 'further reading' references. (U.K.)

  11. Marketization Revisited

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Morten Balle; Lindholst, Andrej Christian

    2016-01-01

    out; Benchmarking and yardstick competition; and Public-Private collaboration. On the basis of the review of the seven articles, it is found that all elements in all marketization models are firmly embedded but also under dynamic change within public service delivery systems. The review also......Purpose: The purpose of this introduction article to the IJPSM special issue on marketization is to clarify the conceptual foundations of marketization as a phenomenon within the public sector and to gauge current marketization trends on the basis of the seven articles in the special issue. Design....../methodology/approach: Conceptual clarification and cross-cutting review of seven articles analysing marketization in six countries in three policy areas at the level of local government. Findings: Four ideal-type models are deduced: Quasi-markets, involving both provider competition and free choice for users; Classic contracting...

  12. Causality and Time in Historical Institutionalism

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mahoney, James; Mohamedali, Khairunnisa; Nguyen, Christoph

    2016-01-01

    This chapter explores the dual concern with causality and time in historical institutionalism using a graphical approach. The analysis focuses on three concepts that are central to this field: critical junctures, gradual change, and path dependence. The analysis makes explicit and formal the logi...

  13. Causality relationship between energy demand and economic ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper attempts to examine the causal relationship between electricity demand and economic growth in Nigeria using data for 1970 – 2003. The study uses the Johansen cointegration VAR approach. The ADF and Phillips – Perron test statistics were used to test for stationarity of the data. It was found that the data were ...

  14. Granger Causality and Transfer Entropy Are Equivalent for Gaussian Variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnett, Lionel; Barrett, Adam B.; Seth, Anil K.

    2009-12-01

    Granger causality is a statistical notion of causal influence based on prediction via vector autoregression. Developed originally in the field of econometrics, it has since found application in a broader arena, particularly in neuroscience. More recently transfer entropy, an information-theoretic measure of time-directed information transfer between jointly dependent processes, has gained traction in a similarly wide field. While it has been recognized that the two concepts must be related, the exact relationship has until now not been formally described. Here we show that for Gaussian variables, Granger causality and transfer entropy are entirely equivalent, thus bridging autoregressive and information-theoretic approaches to data-driven causal inference.

  15. Optimal relaxed causal sampler using sampled-date system theory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Shekhawat, Hanumant; Meinsma, Gjerrit

    This paper studies the design of an optimal relaxed causal sampler using sampled data system theory. A lifted frequency domain approach is used to obtain the existence conditions and the optimal sampler. A state space formulation of the results is also provided. The resulting optimal relaxed causal

  16. Quantum retrodiction and causality principle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shirokov, M.I.

    1994-01-01

    Quantum mechanics is factually a predictive science. But quantum retrodiction may also be needed, e.g., for the experimental verification of the validity of the Schroedinger equation for the wave function in the past if the present state is given. It is shown that in the retrodictive analog of the prediction the measurement must be replaced by another physical process called the retromeasurement. In this process, the reduction of a state vector into eigenvectors of a measured observable must proceed in the opposite direction of time as compared to the usual reduction. Examples of such processes are unknown. Moreover, they are shown to be forbidden by the causality principle stating that the later event cannot influence the earlier one. So quantum retrodiction seems to be unrealizable. It is demonstrated that the approach to the retrodiction given by S.Watanabe and F.Belinfante must be considered as an unsatisfactory ersatz of retrodicting. 20 refs., 3 figs

  17. Causal events enter awareness faster than non-causal events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pieter Moors

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Philosophers have long argued that causality cannot be directly observed but requires a conscious inference (Hume, 1967. Albert Michotte however developed numerous visual phenomena in which people seemed to perceive causality akin to primary visual properties like colour or motion (Michotte, 1946. Michotte claimed that the perception of causality did not require a conscious, deliberate inference but, working over 70 years ago, he did not have access to the experimental methods to test this claim. Here we employ Continuous Flash Suppression (CFS—an interocular suppression technique to render stimuli invisible (Tsuchiya & Koch, 2005—to test whether causal events enter awareness faster than non-causal events. We presented observers with ‘causal’ and ‘non-causal’ events, and found consistent evidence that participants become aware of causal events more rapidly than non-causal events. Our results suggest that, whilst causality must be inferred from sensory evidence, this inference might be computed at low levels of perceptual processing, and does not depend on a deliberative conscious evaluation of the stimulus. This work therefore supports Michotte’s contention that, like colour or motion, causality is an immediate property of our perception of the world.

  18. Analogy in causal inference: rethinking Austin Bradford Hill's neglected consideration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weed, Douglas L

    2018-05-01

    The purpose of this article was to rethink and resurrect Austin Bradford Hill's "criterion" of analogy as an important consideration in causal inference. In epidemiology today, analogy is either completely ignored (e.g., in many textbooks), or equated with biologic plausibility or coherence, or aligned with the scientist's imagination. None of these examples, however, captures Hill's description of analogy. His words suggest that there may be something gained by contrasting two bodies of evidence, one from an established causal relationship, the other not. Coupled with developments in the methods of systematic assessments of evidence-including but not limited to meta-analysis-analogy can be restructured as a key component in causal inference. This new approach will require that a collection-a library-of known cases of causal inference (i.e., bodies of evidence involving established causal relationships) be developed. This library would likely include causal assessments by organizations such as the International Agency for Research on Cancer, the National Toxicology Program, and the United States Environmental Protection Agency. In addition, a process for describing key features of a causal relationship would need to be developed along with what will be considered paradigm cases of causation. Finally, it will be important to develop ways to objectively compare a "new" body of evidence with the relevant paradigm case of causation. Analogy, along with all other existing methods and causal considerations, may improve our ability to identify causal relationships. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Gaussian entanglement revisited

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lami, Ludovico; Serafini, Alessio; Adesso, Gerardo

    2018-02-01

    We present a novel approach to the separability problem for Gaussian quantum states of bosonic continuous variable systems. We derive a simplified necessary and sufficient separability criterion for arbitrary Gaussian states of m versus n modes, which relies on convex optimisation over marginal covariance matrices on one subsystem only. We further revisit the currently known results stating the equivalence between separability and positive partial transposition (PPT) for specific classes of Gaussian states. Using techniques based on matrix analysis, such as Schur complements and matrix means, we then provide a unified treatment and compact proofs of all these results. In particular, we recover the PPT-separability equivalence for: (i) Gaussian states of 1 versus n modes; and (ii) isotropic Gaussian states. In passing, we also retrieve (iii) the recently established equivalence between separability of a Gaussian state and and its complete Gaussian extendability. Our techniques are then applied to progress beyond the state of the art. We prove that: (iv) Gaussian states that are invariant under partial transposition are necessarily separable; (v) the PPT criterion is necessary and sufficient for separability for Gaussian states of m versus n modes that are symmetric under the exchange of any two modes belonging to one of the parties; and (vi) Gaussian states which remain PPT under passive optical operations can not be entangled by them either. This is not a foregone conclusion per se (since Gaussian bound entangled states do exist) and settles a question that had been left unanswered in the existing literature on the subject. This paper, enjoyable by both the quantum optics and the matrix analysis communities, overall delivers technical and conceptual advances which are likely to be useful for further applications in continuous variable quantum information theory, beyond the separability problem.

  20. Revisiting Cementoblastoma with a Rare Case Presentation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vijayanirmala Subramani

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Cementoblastoma is a rare benign odontogenic neoplasm which is characterized by the proliferation of cellular cementum. Diagnosis of cementoblastoma is challenging because of its protracted clinical, radiographic features, and bland histological appearance; most often cementoblastoma is often confused with other cementum and bone originated lesions. The aim of this article is to overview/revisit, approach the diagnosis of cementoblastoma, and also present a unique radiographic appearance of a cementoblastoma lesion associated with an impacted tooth.

  1. Causal Diagrams for Empirical Research

    OpenAIRE

    Pearl, Judea

    1994-01-01

    The primary aim of this paper is to show how graphical models can be used as a mathematical language for integrating statistical and subject-matter information. In particular, the paper develops a principled, nonparametric framework for causal inference, in which diagrams are queried to determine if the assumptions available are sufficient for identifiying causal effects from non-experimental data. If so the diagrams can be queried to produce mathematical expressions for causal effects in ter...

  2. Causality Statistical Perspectives and Applications

    CERN Document Server

    Berzuini, Carlo; Bernardinell, Luisa

    2012-01-01

    A state of the art volume on statistical causality Causality: Statistical Perspectives and Applications presents a wide-ranging collection of seminal contributions by renowned experts in the field, providing a thorough treatment of all aspects of statistical causality. It covers the various formalisms in current use, methods for applying them to specific problems, and the special requirements of a range of examples from medicine, biology and economics to political science. This book:Provides a clear account and comparison of formal languages, concepts and models for statistical causality. Addr

  3. Causal electromagnetic interaction equations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zinoviev, Yury M.

    2011-01-01

    For the electromagnetic interaction of two particles the relativistic causal quantum mechanics equations are proposed. These equations are solved for the case when the second particle moves freely. The initial wave functions are supposed to be smooth and rapidly decreasing at the infinity. This condition is important for the convergence of the integrals similar to the integrals of quantum electrodynamics. We also consider the singular initial wave functions in the particular case when the second particle mass is equal to zero. The discrete energy spectrum of the first particle wave function is defined by the initial wave function of the free-moving second particle. Choosing the initial wave functions of the free-moving second particle it is possible to obtain a practically arbitrary discrete energy spectrum.

  4. Causal learning and inference as a rational process: the new synthesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holyoak, Keith J; Cheng, Patricia W

    2011-01-01

    Over the past decade, an active line of research within the field of human causal learning and inference has converged on a general representational framework: causal models integrated with bayesian probabilistic inference. We describe this new synthesis, which views causal learning and inference as a fundamentally rational process, and review a sample of the empirical findings that support the causal framework over associative alternatives. Causal events, like all events in the distal world as opposed to our proximal perceptual input, are inherently unobservable. A central assumption of the causal approach is that humans (and potentially nonhuman animals) have been designed in such a way as to infer the most invariant causal relations for achieving their goals based on observed events. In contrast, the associative approach assumes that learners only acquire associations among important observed events, omitting the representation of the distal relations. By incorporating bayesian inference over distributions of causal strength and causal structures, along with noisy-logical (i.e., causal) functions for integrating the influences of multiple causes on a single effect, human judgments about causal strength and structure can be predicted accurately for relatively simple causal structures. Dynamic models of learning based on the causal framework can explain patterns of acquisition observed with serial presentation of contingency data and are consistent with available neuroimaging data. The approach has been extended to a diverse range of inductive tasks, including category-based and analogical inferences.

  5. Structural Equations and Causal Explanations: Some Challenges for Causal SEM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Markus, Keith A.

    2010-01-01

    One common application of structural equation modeling (SEM) involves expressing and empirically investigating causal explanations. Nonetheless, several aspects of causal explanation that have an impact on behavioral science methodology remain poorly understood. It remains unclear whether applications of SEM should attempt to provide complete…

  6. Revisiting Okun's Relationship

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dixon, R.; Lim, G.C.; van Ours, Jan

    2016-01-01

    Our paper revisits Okun's relationship between observed unemployment rates and output gaps. We include in the relationship the effect of labour market institutions as well as age and gender effects. Our empirical analysis is based on 20 OECD countries over the period 1985-2013. We find that the

  7. Revisiting the Okun relationship

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dixon, R. (Robert); Lim, G.C.; J.C. van Ours (Jan)

    2017-01-01

    textabstractOur article revisits the Okun relationship between observed unemployment rates and output gaps. We include in the relationship the effect of labour market institutions as well as age and gender effects. Our empirical analysis is based on 20 OECD countries over the period 1985–2013. We

  8. Bounded Intention Planning Revisited

    OpenAIRE

    Sievers Silvan; Wehrle Martin; Helmert Malte

    2014-01-01

    Bounded intention planning provides a pruning technique for optimal planning that has been proposed several years ago. In addition partial order reduction techniques based on stubborn sets have recently been investigated for this purpose. In this paper we revisit bounded intention planning in the view of stubborn sets.

  9. A Hydrostatic Paradox Revisited

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ganci, Salvatore

    2012-01-01

    This paper revisits a well-known hydrostatic paradox, observed when turning upside down a glass partially filled with water and covered with a sheet of light material. The phenomenon is studied in its most general form by including the mass of the cover. A historical survey of this experiment shows that a common misunderstanding of the phenomenon…

  10. The Faraday effect revisited

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cornean, Horia; Nenciu, Gheorghe

    2009-01-01

    This paper is the second in a series revisiting the (effect of) Faraday rotation. We formulate and prove the thermodynamic limit for the transverse electric conductivity of Bloch electrons, as well as for the Verdet constant. The main mathematical tool is a regularized magnetic and geometric...

  11. The causal structure of utility conditionals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonnefon, Jean-François; Sloman, Steven A

    2013-01-01

    The psychology of reasoning is increasingly considering agents' values and preferences, achieving greater integration with judgment and decision making, social cognition, and moral reasoning. Some of this research investigates utility conditionals, ''if p then q'' statements where the realization of p or q or both is valued by some agents. Various approaches to utility conditionals share the assumption that reasoners make inferences from utility conditionals based on the comparison between the utility of p and the expected utility of q. This article introduces a new parameter in this analysis, the underlying causal structure of the conditional. Four experiments showed that causal structure moderated utility-informed conditional reasoning. These inferences were strongly invited when the underlying structure of the conditional was causal, and significantly less so when the underlying structure of the conditional was diagnostic. This asymmetry was only observed for conditionals in which the utility of q was clear, and disappeared when the utility of q was unclear. Thus, an adequate account of utility-informed inferences conditional reasoning requires three components: utility, probability, and causal structure. Copyright © 2012 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

  12. On minimizers of causal variational principles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schiefeneder, Daniela

    2011-01-01

    Causal variational principles are a class of nonlinear minimization problems which arise in a formulation of relativistic quantum theory referred to as the fermionic projector approach. This thesis is devoted to a numerical and analytic study of the minimizers of a general class of causal variational principles. We begin with a numerical investigation of variational principles for the fermionic projector in discrete space-time. It is shown that for sufficiently many space-time points, the minimizing fermionic projector induces non-trivial causal relations on the space-time points. We then generalize the setting by introducing a class of causal variational principles for measures on a compact manifold. In our main result we prove under general assumptions that the support of a minimizing measure is either completely timelike, or it is singular in the sense that its interior is empty. In the examples of the circle, the sphere and certain flag manifolds, the general results are supplemented by a more detailed analysis of the minimizers. (orig.)

  13. The Levy sections theorem revisited

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Figueiredo, Annibal; Gleria, Iram; Matsushita, Raul; Silva, Sergio Da

    2007-01-01

    This paper revisits the Levy sections theorem. We extend the scope of the theorem to time series and apply it to historical daily returns of selected dollar exchange rates. The elevated kurtosis usually observed in such series is then explained by their volatility patterns. And the duration of exchange rate pegs explains the extra elevated kurtosis in the exchange rates of emerging markets. In the end, our extension of the theorem provides an approach that is simpler than the more common explicit modelling of fat tails and dependence. Our main purpose is to build up a technique based on the sections that allows one to artificially remove the fat tails and dependence present in a data set. By analysing data through the lenses of the Levy sections theorem one can find common patterns in otherwise very different data sets

  14. The Levy sections theorem revisited

    Science.gov (United States)

    Figueiredo, Annibal; Gleria, Iram; Matsushita, Raul; Da Silva, Sergio

    2007-06-01

    This paper revisits the Levy sections theorem. We extend the scope of the theorem to time series and apply it to historical daily returns of selected dollar exchange rates. The elevated kurtosis usually observed in such series is then explained by their volatility patterns. And the duration of exchange rate pegs explains the extra elevated kurtosis in the exchange rates of emerging markets. In the end, our extension of the theorem provides an approach that is simpler than the more common explicit modelling of fat tails and dependence. Our main purpose is to build up a technique based on the sections that allows one to artificially remove the fat tails and dependence present in a data set. By analysing data through the lenses of the Levy sections theorem one can find common patterns in otherwise very different data sets.

  15. Expert Causal Reasoning and Explanation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuipers, Benjamin

    The relationship between cognitive psychologists and researchers in artificial intelligence carries substantial benefits for both. An ongoing investigation in causal reasoning in medical problem solving systems illustrates this interaction. This paper traces a dialectic of sorts in which three different types of causal resaoning for medical…

  16. Re-thinking local causality

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Friederich, Simon

    There is widespread belief in a tension between quantum theory and special relativity, motivated by the idea that quantum theory violates J. S. Bell's criterion of local causality, which is meant to implement the causal structure of relativistic space-time. This paper argues that if one takes the

  17. Covariation in Natural Causal Induction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Patricia W.; Novick, Laura R.

    1991-01-01

    Biases and models usually offered by cognitive and social psychology and by philosophy to explain causal induction are evaluated with respect to focal sets (contextually determined sets of events over which covariation is computed). A probabilistic contrast model is proposed as underlying covariation computation in natural causal induction. (SLD)

  18. World oil and agricultural commodity prices: Evidence from nonlinear causality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nazlioglu, Saban

    2011-01-01

    The increasing co-movements between the world oil and agricultural commodity prices have renewed interest in determining price transmission from oil prices to those of agricultural commodities. This study extends the literature on the oil-agricultural commodity prices nexus, which particularly concentrates on nonlinear causal relationships between the world oil and three key agricultural commodity prices (corn, soybeans, and wheat). To this end, the linear causality approach of Toda-Yamamoto and the nonparametric causality method of Diks-Panchenko are applied to the weekly data spanning from 1994 to 2010. The linear causality analysis indicates that the oil prices and the agricultural commodity prices do not influence each other, which supports evidence on the neutrality hypothesis. In contrast, the nonlinear causality analysis shows that: (i) there are nonlinear feedbacks between the oil and the agricultural prices, and (ii) there is a persistent unidirectional nonlinear causality running from the oil prices to the corn and to the soybeans prices. The findings from the nonlinear causality analysis therefore provide clues for better understanding the recent dynamics of the agricultural commodity prices and some policy implications for policy makers, farmers, and global investors. This study also suggests the directions for future studies. - Research highlights: → This study determines the price transmission mechanisms between the world oil and three key agricultural commodity prices (corn, soybeans, and wheat). → The linear and nonlinear cointegration and causality methods are carried out. → The linear causality analysis supports evidence on the neutrality hypothesis. → The nonlinear causality analysis shows that there is a persistent unidirectional causality from the oil prices to the corn and to the soybeans prices.

  19. Paradoxical Behavior of Granger Causality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Witt, Annette; Battaglia, Demian; Gail, Alexander

    2013-03-01

    Granger causality is a standard tool for the description of directed interaction of network components and is popular in many scientific fields including econometrics, neuroscience and climate science. For time series that can be modeled as bivariate auto-regressive processes we analytically derive an expression for spectrally decomposed Granger Causality (SDGC) and show that this quantity depends only on two out of four groups of model parameters. Then we present examples of such processes whose SDGC expose paradoxical behavior in the sense that causality is high for frequency ranges with low spectral power. For avoiding misinterpretations of Granger causality analysis we propose to complement it by partial spectral analysis. Our findings are illustrated by an example from brain electrophysiology. Finally, we draw implications for the conventional definition of Granger causality. Bernstein Center for Computational Neuroscience Goettingen

  20. On causality of extreme events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Massimiliano Zanin

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Multiple metrics have been developed to detect causality relations between data describing the elements constituting complex systems, all of them considering their evolution through time. Here we propose a metric able to detect causality within static data sets, by analysing how extreme events in one element correspond to the appearance of extreme events in a second one. The metric is able to detect non-linear causalities; to analyse both cross-sectional and longitudinal data sets; and to discriminate between real causalities and correlations caused by confounding factors. We validate the metric through synthetic data, dynamical and chaotic systems, and data representing the human brain activity in a cognitive task. We further show how the proposed metric is able to outperform classical causality metrics, provided non-linear relationships are present and large enough data sets are available.

  1. Neural Correlates of Causal Power Judgments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Denise Dellarosa Cummins

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Causal inference is a fundamental component of cognition and perception. Probabilistic theories of causal judgment (most notably causal Bayes networks derive causal judgments using metrics that integrate contingency information. But human estimates typically diverge from these normative predictions. This is because human causal power judgments are typically strongly influenced by beliefs concerning underlying causal mechanisms, and because of the way knowledge is retrieved from human memory during the judgment process. Neuroimaging studies indicate that the brain distinguishes causal events from mere covariation, and between perceived and inferred causality. Areas involved in error prediction are also activated, implying automatic activation of possible exception cases during causal decision-making.

  2. Clear message for causality

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Steinberg, Aephraim M. [Institute for Experimental Physics, University of Vienna, Vienna (Austria)

    2003-12-01

    Experiment confirms that information cannot be transmitted faster than the speed of light. Ever since Einstein stated that nothing can travel faster than light, physicists have delighted in finding exceptions. One after another, observations of such 'superluminal' propagation have been made. However, while some image or pattern- such as the motion of a spotlight projected on a distant wall - might have appeared to travel faster than light, it seemed that there was no way to use the superluminal effect to transmit energy or information. In recent years, the superluminal propagation of light pulses through certain media has led to renewed controversy. In 1995, for example, Guenther Nimtz of the University of Cologne encoded Mozart's 40th Symphony on a microwave beam, which he claimed to have transmitted at a speed faster than light. Others maintain that such a violation of Einstein's speed limit would wreak havoc on our most fundamental ideas about causality, allowing an effect to precede its cause. Relativity teaches us that sending a signal faster than light would be equivalent to sending it backwards in time. (U.K.)

  3. Causal Rasch models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Jackson Stenner

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Rasch’s unidimensional models for measurement show how to connect object measures (e.g., reader abilities, measurement mechanisms (e.g., machine-generated cloze reading items, and observational outcomes (e.g., counts correct on reading instruments. Substantive theory shows what interventions or manipulations to the measurement mechanism can be traded off against a change to the object measure to hold the observed outcome constant. A Rasch model integrated with a substantive theory dictates the form and substance of permissible interventions. Rasch analysis, absent construct theory and an associated specification equation, is a black box in which understanding may be more illusory than not. Finally, the quantitative hypothesis can be tested by comparing theory-based trade-off relations with observed trade-off relations. Only quantitative variables (as measured support such trade-offs. Note that to test the quantitative hypothesis requires more than manipulation of the algebraic equivalencies in the Rasch model or descriptively fitting data to the model. A causal Rasch model involves experimental intervention/manipulation on either reader ability or text complexity or a conjoint intervention on both simultaneously to yield a successful prediction of the resultant observed outcome (count correct. We conjecture that when this type of manipulation is introduced for individual reader text encounters and model predictions are consistent with observations, the quantitative hypothesis is sustained.

  4. Causal Rasch models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stenner, A Jackson; Fisher, William P; Stone, Mark H; Burdick, Donald S

    2013-01-01

    Rasch's unidimensional models for measurement show how to connect object measures (e.g., reader abilities), measurement mechanisms (e.g., machine-generated cloze reading items), and observational outcomes (e.g., counts correct on reading instruments). Substantive theory shows what interventions or manipulations to the measurement mechanism can be traded off against a change to the object measure to hold the observed outcome constant. A Rasch model integrated with a substantive theory dictates the form and substance of permissible interventions. Rasch analysis, absent construct theory and an associated specification equation, is a black box in which understanding may be more illusory than not. Finally, the quantitative hypothesis can be tested by comparing theory-based trade-off relations with observed trade-off relations. Only quantitative variables (as measured) support such trade-offs. Note that to test the quantitative hypothesis requires more than manipulation of the algebraic equivalencies in the Rasch model or descriptively fitting data to the model. A causal Rasch model involves experimental intervention/manipulation on either reader ability or text complexity or a conjoint intervention on both simultaneously to yield a successful prediction of the resultant observed outcome (count correct). We conjecture that when this type of manipulation is introduced for individual reader text encounters and model predictions are consistent with observations, the quantitative hypothesis is sustained.

  5. Causal Rasch models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stenner, A. Jackson; Fisher, William P.; Stone, Mark H.; Burdick, Donald S.

    2013-01-01

    Rasch's unidimensional models for measurement show how to connect object measures (e.g., reader abilities), measurement mechanisms (e.g., machine-generated cloze reading items), and observational outcomes (e.g., counts correct on reading instruments). Substantive theory shows what interventions or manipulations to the measurement mechanism can be traded off against a change to the object measure to hold the observed outcome constant. A Rasch model integrated with a substantive theory dictates the form and substance of permissible interventions. Rasch analysis, absent construct theory and an associated specification equation, is a black box in which understanding may be more illusory than not. Finally, the quantitative hypothesis can be tested by comparing theory-based trade-off relations with observed trade-off relations. Only quantitative variables (as measured) support such trade-offs. Note that to test the quantitative hypothesis requires more than manipulation of the algebraic equivalencies in the Rasch model or descriptively fitting data to the model. A causal Rasch model involves experimental intervention/manipulation on either reader ability or text complexity or a conjoint intervention on both simultaneously to yield a successful prediction of the resultant observed outcome (count correct). We conjecture that when this type of manipulation is introduced for individual reader text encounters and model predictions are consistent with observations, the quantitative hypothesis is sustained. PMID:23986726

  6. Causal aspects of diffraction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crawford, G.N.

    1981-01-01

    The analysis is directed at a causal description of photon diffraction, which is explained in terms of a wave exerting real forces and providing actual guidance to each quantum of energy. An undulatory PSI wave is associated with each photon, and this wave is assumed to imply more than an informative probability function, so that it actually carries real energy, in much the same way as does an electro-magnetic wave. Whether or not it may be in some way related to the electromagnetic wave is left as a matter of on-going concern. A novel application of the concept of a minimum energy configuration is utilized; that is, a system of energy quanta seeks out relative positions and orientations of least mutual energy, much as an electron seeks its Bohr radius as a position of least mutual energy. Thus the concept implies more a guiding interaction of the PSI waves than an interfering cancellation of these waves. Similar concepts have been suggested by L. de Broglie and D. Bohm

  7. ["Karoshi" and causal relationships].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamajima, N

    1992-08-01

    This paper aims to introduce a measure for use by physicians for stating the degree of probable causal relationship for "Karoshi", ie, a sudden death from cerebrovascular diseases or ischemic heart diseases under occupational stresses, as well as to give a brief description for legal procedures associated with worker's compensation and civil trial in Japan. It is a well-used measure in epidemiology, "attributable risk percent (AR%)", which can be applied to describe the extent of contribution to "Karoshi" of the excess occupational burdens the deceased worker was forced to bear. Although several standards such as average occupational burdens for the worker, average occupational burdens for an ordinary worker, burdens in a nonoccupational life, and a complete rest, might be considered for the AR% estimation, the average occupational burdens for an ordinary worker should normally be utilized as a standard for worker's compensation. The adoption of AR% could be helpful for courts to make a consistent judgement whether "Karoshi" cases are compensatable or not.

  8. Structure and Strength in Causal Induction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffiths, Thomas L.; Tenenbaum, Joshua B.

    2005-01-01

    We present a framework for the rational analysis of elemental causal induction--learning about the existence of a relationship between a single cause and effect--based upon causal graphical models. This framework makes precise the distinction between causal structure and causal strength: the difference between asking whether a causal relationship…

  9. Dynamics of Quantum Causal Structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castro-Ruiz, Esteban; Giacomini, Flaminia; Brukner, Časlav

    2018-01-01

    It was recently suggested that causal structures are both dynamical, because of general relativity, and indefinite, because of quantum theory. The process matrix formalism furnishes a framework for quantum mechanics on indefinite causal structures, where the order between operations of local laboratories is not definite (e.g., one cannot say whether operation in laboratory A occurs before or after operation in laboratory B ). Here, we develop a framework for "dynamics of causal structures," i.e., for transformations of process matrices into process matrices. We show that, under continuous and reversible transformations, the causal order between operations is always preserved. However, the causal order between a subset of operations can be changed under continuous yet nonreversible transformations. An explicit example is that of the quantum switch, where a party in the past affects the causal order of operations of future parties, leading to a transition from a channel from A to B , via superposition of causal orders, to a channel from B to A . We generalize our framework to construct a hierarchy of quantum maps based on transformations of process matrices and transformations thereof.

  10. Dynamics of Quantum Causal Structures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Esteban Castro-Ruiz

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available It was recently suggested that causal structures are both dynamical, because of general relativity, and indefinite, because of quantum theory. The process matrix formalism furnishes a framework for quantum mechanics on indefinite causal structures, where the order between operations of local laboratories is not definite (e.g., one cannot say whether operation in laboratory A occurs before or after operation in laboratory B. Here, we develop a framework for “dynamics of causal structures,” i.e., for transformations of process matrices into process matrices. We show that, under continuous and reversible transformations, the causal order between operations is always preserved. However, the causal order between a subset of operations can be changed under continuous yet nonreversible transformations. An explicit example is that of the quantum switch, where a party in the past affects the causal order of operations of future parties, leading to a transition from a channel from A to B, via superposition of causal orders, to a channel from B to A. We generalize our framework to construct a hierarchy of quantum maps based on transformations of process matrices and transformations thereof.

  11. Principal stratification in causal inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frangakis, Constantine E; Rubin, Donald B

    2002-03-01

    Many scientific problems require that treatment comparisons be adjusted for posttreatment variables, but the estimands underlying standard methods are not causal effects. To address this deficiency, we propose a general framework for comparing treatments adjusting for posttreatment variables that yields principal effects based on principal stratification. Principal stratification with respect to a posttreatment variable is a cross-classification of subjects defined by the joint potential values of that posttreatment variable tinder each of the treatments being compared. Principal effects are causal effects within a principal stratum. The key property of principal strata is that they are not affected by treatment assignment and therefore can be used just as any pretreatment covariate. such as age category. As a result, the central property of our principal effects is that they are always causal effects and do not suffer from the complications of standard posttreatment-adjusted estimands. We discuss briefly that such principal causal effects are the link between three recent applications with adjustment for posttreatment variables: (i) treatment noncompliance, (ii) missing outcomes (dropout) following treatment noncompliance. and (iii) censoring by death. We then attack the problem of surrogate or biomarker endpoints, where we show, using principal causal effects, that all current definitions of surrogacy, even when perfectly true, do not generally have the desired interpretation as causal effects of treatment on outcome. We go on to forrmulate estimands based on principal stratification and principal causal effects and show their superiority.

  12. Dynamic Topography Revisited

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moresi, Louis

    2015-04-01

    Dynamic Topography Revisited Dynamic topography is usually considered to be one of the trinity of contributing causes to the Earth's non-hydrostatic topography along with the long-term elastic strength of the lithosphere and isostatic responses to density anomalies within the lithosphere. Dynamic topography, thought of this way, is what is left over when other sources of support have been eliminated. An alternate and explicit definition of dynamic topography is that deflection of the surface which is attributable to creeping viscous flow. The problem with the first definition of dynamic topography is 1) that the lithosphere is almost certainly a visco-elastic / brittle layer with no absolute boundary between flowing and static regions, and 2) the lithosphere is, a thermal / compositional boundary layer in which some buoyancy is attributable to immutable, intrinsic density variations and some is due to thermal anomalies which are coupled to the flow. In each case, it is difficult to draw a sharp line between each contribution to the overall topography. The second definition of dynamic topography does seem cleaner / more precise but it suffers from the problem that it is not measurable in practice. On the other hand, this approach has resulted in a rich literature concerning the analysis of large scale geoid and topography and the relation to buoyancy and mechanical properties of the Earth [e.g. refs 1,2,3] In convection models with viscous, elastic, brittle rheology and compositional buoyancy, however, it is possible to examine how the surface topography (and geoid) are supported and how different ways of interpreting the "observable" fields introduce different biases. This is what we will do. References (a.k.a. homework) [1] Hager, B. H., R. W. Clayton, M. A. Richards, R. P. Comer, and A. M. Dziewonski (1985), Lower mantle heterogeneity, dynamic topography and the geoid, Nature, 313(6003), 541-545, doi:10.1038/313541a0. [2] Parsons, B., and S. Daly (1983), The

  13. Causal boundary for stably causal space-times

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Racz, I.

    1987-12-01

    The usual boundary constructions for space-times often yield an unsatisfactory boundary set. This problem is reviewed and a new solution is proposed. An explicit identification rule is given on the set of the ideal points of the space-time. This construction leads to a satisfactory boundary point set structure for stably causal space-times. The topological properties of the resulting causal boundary construction are examined. For the stably causal space-times each causal curve has a unique endpoint on the boundary set according to the extended Alexandrov topology. The extension of the space-time through the boundary is discussed. To describe the singularities the defined boundary sets have to be separated into two disjoint sets. (D.Gy.) 8 refs

  14. Causal boundary for strongly causal spacetimes: Pt. 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Szabados, L.B.

    1989-01-01

    In a previous paper an analysis of the general structure of the causal boundary constructions and a new explicit identification rule, built up from elementary TIP-TIF gluings, were presented. In the present paper we complete our identification by incorporating TIP-TIP and TIF-TIF gluings as well. An asymptotic causality condition is found which, for physically important cases, ensures the uniqueness of the endpoints of the non-spacelike curves in the completed spacetime. (author)

  15. Classical planning and causal implicatures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blackburn, Patrick Rowan; Benotti, Luciana

    In this paper we motivate and describe a dialogue manager (called Frolog) which uses classical planning to infer causal implicatures. A causal implicature is a type of Gricean relation implicature, a highly context dependent form of inference. As we shall see, causal implicatures are important...... to generate clarification requests"; as a result we can model task-oriented dialogue as an interactive process locally structured by negotiation of the underlying task. We give several examples of Frolog-human dialog, discuss the limitations imposed by the classical planning paradigm, and indicate...

  16. Functional equations with causal operators

    CERN Document Server

    Corduneanu, C

    2003-01-01

    Functional equations encompass most of the equations used in applied science and engineering: ordinary differential equations, integral equations of the Volterra type, equations with delayed argument, and integro-differential equations of the Volterra type. The basic theory of functional equations includes functional differential equations with causal operators. Functional Equations with Causal Operators explains the connection between equations with causal operators and the classical types of functional equations encountered by mathematicians and engineers. It details the fundamentals of linear equations and stability theory and provides several applications and examples.

  17. Testing causal relationships between wholesale electricity prices and primary energy prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakajima, Tadahiro; Hamori, Shigeyuki

    2013-01-01

    We apply the lag-augmented vector autoregression technique to test the Granger-causal relationships among wholesale electricity prices, natural gas prices, and crude oil prices. In addition, by adopting a cross-correlation function approach, we test not only the causality in mean but also the causality in variance between the variables. The results of tests using both techniques show that gas prices Granger-cause electricity prices in mean. We find no Granger-causality in variance among these variables. -- Highlights: •We test the Granger-causality among wholesale electricity and primary energy prices. •We test not only the causality in mean but also the causality in variance. •The results show that gas prices Granger-cause electricity prices in mean. •We find no Granger-causality in variance among these variables

  18. 'Felson Signs' revisited

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    George, Phiji P.; Irodi, Aparna; Keshava, Shyamkumar N.; Lamont, Anthony C.

    2014-01-01

    In this article we revisit, with the help of images, those classic signs in chest radiography described by Dr Benjamin Felson himself, or other illustrious radiologists of his time, cited and discussed in 'Chest Roentgenology'. We briefly describe the causes of the signs, their utility and the differential diagnosis to be considered when each sign is seen. Wherever possible, we use CT images to illustrate the basis of some of these classic radiographic signs.

  19. Seven Issues, Revisited

    OpenAIRE

    Whitehead, Jim; De Bra, Paul; Grønbæk, Kaj; Larsen, Deena; Legget, John; schraefel, monica m.c.

    2002-01-01

    It has been 15 years since the original presentation by Frank Halasz at Hypertext'87 on seven issues for the next generation of hypertext systems. These issues are: Search and Query Composites Virtual Structures Computation in/over hypertext network Versioning Collaborative Work Extensibility and Tailorability Since that time, these issues have formed the nucleus of multiple research agendas within the Hypertext community. Befitting this direction-setting role, the issues have been revisited ...

  20. Deterministic Graphical Games Revisited

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersson, Daniel; Hansen, Kristoffer Arnsfelt; Miltersen, Peter Bro

    2008-01-01

    We revisit the deterministic graphical games of Washburn. A deterministic graphical game can be described as a simple stochastic game (a notion due to Anne Condon), except that we allow arbitrary real payoffs but disallow moves of chance. We study the complexity of solving deterministic graphical...... games and obtain an almost-linear time comparison-based algorithm for computing an equilibrium of such a game. The existence of a linear time comparison-based algorithm remains an open problem....

  1. Causal Modelling in Evaluation Research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winteler, Adolf

    1983-01-01

    A study applied path analysis methods, using new techniques of causal analysis, to the problem of predicting the achievement, dropout rate, and satisfaction of university students. Besides providing explanations, the technique indicates possible remedial measures. (MSE)

  2. Consciousness and the "Causal Paradox"

    OpenAIRE

    Velmans, Max

    1996-01-01

    Viewed from a first-person perspective consciousness appears to be necessary for complex, novel human activity - but viewed from a third-person perspective consciousness appears to play no role in the activity of brains, producing a "causal paradox". To resolve this paradox one needs to distinguish consciousness of processing from consciousness accompanying processing or causing processing. Accounts of consciousness/brain causal interactions switch between first- and third-person perspectives...

  3. Short term use of the system tariffs : the substitution method revisited

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Oliveira-De Jesus, P.M.; Ponce de Leao, M.T.

    2007-01-01

    In some countries, electricity network losses are evaluated using a substitution method in order to apply Use of the System Tariffs against generators and loads. Although the substitution method is widely used for loss pricing in real distribution systems with distributed generation, this method can produce inconsistent results, particularly when all users are included in the analysis. This paper demonstrated how all agents are responsible for some of the network loss reduction and no single user is responsible for the actual loss. For these reasons, a new and more complex procedure based on a cost-causality approach was introduced. In this study, the substitution method was revisited and reformulated with a new performance index in order to produce an equitable sharing of the benefits or added costs introduced by distributed generators. Under certain operating scenarios, the newly proposed method can emulate the solution provided by a marginal or incremental approach fulfilling some requirements for an effective loss allocation policy to ensure recovery of losses and send economic signals to agents. It was concluded that the reformulated method is a practical alternative for access pricing in distribution networks. 5 refs., 2 tabs., 5 figs., 1 appendix

  4. Birth weight differences between those offered financial voucher incentives for verified smoking cessation and control participants enrolled in the Cessation in Pregnancy Incentives Trial (CPIT), employing an intuitive approach and a Complier Average Causal Effects (CACE) analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McConnachie, Alex; Haig, Caroline; Sinclair, Lesley; Bauld, Linda; Tappin, David M

    2017-07-20

    The Cessation in Pregnancy Incentives Trial (CPIT), which offered financial incentives for smoking cessation during pregnancy showed a clinically and statistically significant improvement in cessation. However, infant birth weight was not seen to be affected. This study re-examines birth weight using an intuitive and a complier average causal effects (CACE) method to uncover important information missed by intention-to-treat analysis. CPIT offered financial incentives up to £400 to pregnant smokers to quit. With incentives, 68 women (23.1%) were confirmed non-smokers at primary outcome, compared to 25 (8.7%) without incentives, a difference of 14.3% (Fisher test, p financial incentives to quit. Viewed in this way, the overall birth weight gain with incentives is attributable only to potential quitters. We compared an intuitive approach to a CACE analysis. Mean birth weight of potential quitters in the incentives intervention group (who therefore quit) was 3338 g compared with potential quitters in the control group (who did not quit) 3193 g. The difference attributable to incentives, was 3338 - 3193 = 145 g (95% CI -617, +803). The mean difference in birth weight between the intervention and control groups was 21 g, and the difference in the proportion who managed to quit was 14.3%. Since the intervention consisted of the offer of incentives to quit smoking, the intervention was received by all women in the intervention group. However, "compliance" was successfully quitting with incentives, and the CACE analysis yielded an identical result, causal birth weight increase 21 g ÷ 0.143 = 145 g. Policy makers have great difficulty giving pregnant women money to stop smoking. This study indicates that a small clinically insignificant improvement in average birth weight is likely to hide an important clinically significant increase in infants born to pregnant smokers who want to stop but cannot achieve smoking cessation without the addition of financial

  5. Concepts in causality: chemically induced human urinary bladder cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lower, G.M. Jr.

    1982-01-01

    A significant portion of the incidence of human urinary bladder cancer can be attributed to occupational and cultural (tobacco smoking) situations associated with exposures to various arylamines, many of which represent established human carcinogens. A brief historical overview of research in bladder cancer causality indicates that the identification of causal agents and causal mechanism has been approached and rests upon information gathered at the organismal (geographical/historical), cellular, and molecular levels of biologic organization. This viewpoint speaks of a natural evolution within the biomedical sciences; a natural evolution from descriptive approaches to mechanistic approaches; and a natural evolution from more or less independent discipline-oriented approaches to hierarchically organized multidisciplinary approaches. Available information relevant to bladder cancer causality can be readily integrated into general conceptual frameworks to yield a hierarchial view of the natural history of urinary bladder cancer, a view consistent with contemporary natural systems and information theory and perhaps relevant also to other chemically induced epithelial cancers. Such frameworks are useful in appreciating the spatial and temporal boundaries and interrelationships in causality and the conceptual interrelationships within the biomedical sciences. Recent approaches in molecular epidemiology and the assessment of relative individual susceptibility to bladder cancer indicate that such frameworks are useful in forming hypotheses

  6. Non-Gaussian Methods for Causal Structure Learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shimizu, Shohei

    2018-05-22

    Causal structure learning is one of the most exciting new topics in the fields of machine learning and statistics. In many empirical sciences including prevention science, the causal mechanisms underlying various phenomena need to be studied. Nevertheless, in many cases, classical methods for causal structure learning are not capable of estimating the causal structure of variables. This is because it explicitly or implicitly assumes Gaussianity of data and typically utilizes only the covariance structure. In many applications, however, non-Gaussian data are often obtained, which means that more information may be contained in the data distribution than the covariance matrix is capable of containing. Thus, many new methods have recently been proposed for using the non-Gaussian structure of data and inferring the causal structure of variables. This paper introduces prevention scientists to such causal structure learning methods, particularly those based on the linear, non-Gaussian, acyclic model known as LiNGAM. These non-Gaussian data analysis tools can fully estimate the underlying causal structures of variables under assumptions even in the presence of unobserved common causes. This feature is in contrast to other approaches. A simulated example is also provided.

  7. Revisiting the quantum harmonic oscillator via unilateral Fourier transforms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nogueira, Pedro H F; Castro, Antonio S de

    2016-01-01

    The literature on the exponential Fourier approach to the one-dimensional quantum harmonic oscillator problem is revised and criticized. It is shown that the solution of this problem has been built on faulty premises. The problem is revisited via the Fourier sine and cosine transform method and the stationary states are properly determined by requiring definite parity and square-integrable eigenfunctions. (paper)

  8. A Multi-Level Model of Moral Functioning Revisited

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reed, Don Collins

    2009-01-01

    The model of moral functioning scaffolded in the 2008 "JME" Special Issue is here revisited in response to three papers criticising that volume. As guest editor of that Special Issue I have formulated the main body of this response, concerning the dynamic systems approach to moral development, the problem of moral relativism and the role of…

  9. Curvature constraints from the causal entropic principle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bozek, Brandon; Albrecht, Andreas; Phillips, Daniel

    2009-01-01

    Current cosmological observations indicate a preference for a cosmological constant that is drastically smaller than what can be explained by conventional particle physics. The causal entropic principle (Bousso et al.) provides an alternative approach to anthropic attempts to predict our observed value of the cosmological constant by calculating the entropy created within a causal diamond. We have extended this work to use the causal entropic principle to predict the preferred curvature within the 'multiverse'. We have found that values larger than ρ k =40ρ m are disfavored by more than 99.99% peak value at ρ Λ =7.9x10 -123 and ρ k =4.3ρ m for open universes. For universes that allow only positive curvature or both positive and negative curvature, we find a correlation between curvature and dark energy that leads to an extended region of preferred values. Our universe is found to be disfavored to an extent depending on the priors on curvature. We also provide a comparison to previous anthropic constraints on open universes and discuss future directions for this work.

  10. Causal inference of asynchronous audiovisual speech

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John F Magnotti

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available During speech perception, humans integrate auditory information from the voice with visual information from the face. This multisensory integration increases perceptual precision, but only if the two cues come from the same talker; this requirement has been largely ignored by current models of speech perception. We describe a generative model of multisensory speech perception that includes this critical step of determining the likelihood that the voice and face information have a common cause. A key feature of the model is that it is based on a principled analysis of how an observer should solve this causal inference problem using the asynchrony between two cues and the reliability of the cues. This allows the model to make predictions abut the behavior of subjects performing a synchrony judgment task, predictive power that does not exist in other approaches, such as post hoc fitting of Gaussian curves to behavioral data. We tested the model predictions against the performance of 37 subjects performing a synchrony judgment task viewing audiovisual speech under a variety of manipulations, including varying asynchronies, intelligibility, and visual cue reliability. The causal inference model outperformed the Gaussian model across two experiments, providing a better fit to the behavioral data with fewer parameters. Because the causal inference model is derived from a principled understanding of the task, model parameters are directly interpretable in terms of stimulus and subject properties.

  11. Regression to Causality : Regression-style presentation influences causal attribution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bordacconi, Mats Joe; Larsen, Martin Vinæs

    2014-01-01

    of equivalent results presented as either regression models or as a test of two sample means. Our experiment shows that the subjects who were presented with results as estimates from a regression model were more inclined to interpret these results causally. Our experiment implies that scholars using regression...... models – one of the primary vehicles for analyzing statistical results in political science – encourage causal interpretation. Specifically, we demonstrate that presenting observational results in a regression model, rather than as a simple comparison of means, makes causal interpretation of the results...... more likely. Our experiment drew on a sample of 235 university students from three different social science degree programs (political science, sociology and economics), all of whom had received substantial training in statistics. The subjects were asked to compare and evaluate the validity...

  12. Putting a cap on causality violations in causal dynamical triangulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ambjoern, Jan; Loll, Renate; Westra, Willem; Zohren, Stefan

    2007-01-01

    The formalism of causal dynamical triangulations (CDT) provides us with a non-perturbatively defined model of quantum gravity, where the sum over histories includes only causal space-time histories. Path integrals of CDT and their continuum limits have been studied in two, three and four dimensions. Here we investigate a generalization of the two-dimensional CDT model, where the causality constraint is partially lifted by introducing branching points with a weight g s , and demonstrate that the system can be solved analytically in the genus-zero sector. The solution is analytic in a neighborhood around weight g s = 0 and cannot be analytically continued to g s = ∞, where the branching is entirely geometric and where one would formally recover standard Euclidean two-dimensional quantum gravity defined via dynamical triangulations or Liouville theory

  13. Causality and analyticity in optics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nussenzveig, H.M.

    In order to provide an overall picture of the broad range of optical phenomena that are directly linked with the concepts of causality and analyticity, the following topics are briefly reviewed, emphasizing recent developments: 1) Derivation of dispersion relations for the optical constants of general linear media from causality. Application to the theory of natural optical activity. 2) Derivation of sum rules for the optical constants from causality and from the short-time response function (asymptotic high-frequency behavior). Average spectral behavior of optical media. Applications. 3) Role of spectral conditions. Analytic properties of coherence functions in quantum optics. Reconstruction theorem.4) Phase retrieval problems. 5) Inverse scattering problems. 6) Solution of nonlinear evolution equations in optics by inverse scattering methods. Application to self-induced transparency. Causality in nonlinear wave propagation. 7) Analytic continuation in frequency and angular momentum. Complex singularities. Resonances and natural-mode expansions. Regge poles. 8) Wigner's causal inequality. Time delay. Spatial displacements in total reflection. 9) Analyticity in diffraction theory. Complex angular momentum theory of Mie scattering. Diffraction as a barrier tunnelling effect. Complex trajectories in optics. (Author) [pt

  14. Hierarchical organisation of causal graphs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dziopa, P.

    1993-01-01

    This paper deals with the design of a supervision system using a hierarchy of models formed by graphs, in which the variables are the nodes and the causal relations between the variables of the arcs. To obtain a representation of the variables evolutions which contains only the relevant features of their real evolutions, the causal relations are completed with qualitative transfer functions (QTFs) which produce roughly the behaviour of the classical transfer functions. Major improvements have been made in the building of the hierarchical organization. First, the basic variables of the uppermost level and the causal relations between them are chosen. The next graph is built by adding intermediary variables to the upper graph. When the undermost graph has been built, the transfer functions parameters corresponding to its causal relations are identified. The second task consists in the upwelling of the information from the undermost graph to the uppermost one. A fusion procedure of the causal relations has been designed to compute the QFTs relevant for each level. This procedure aims to reduce the number of parameters needed to represent an evolution at a high level of abstraction. These techniques have been applied to the hierarchical modelling of nuclear process. (authors). 8 refs., 12 figs

  15. Entropy for theories with indefinite causal structure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Markes, Sonia; Hardy, Lucien

    2011-01-01

    Any theory with definite causal structure has a defined past and future, be it defined by light cones or an absolute time scale. Entropy is a concept that has traditionally been reliant on a definite notion of causality. However, without a definite notion of causality, the concept of entropy is not all lost. Indefinite causal structure results from combining probabilistic predictions and dynamical space-time. The causaloid framework lays the mathematical groundwork to be able to treat indefinite causal structure. In this paper, we build on the causaloid mathematics and define a causally-unbiased entropy for an indefinite causal structure. In defining a causally-unbiased entropy, there comes about an emergent idea of causality in the form of a measure of causal connectedness, termed the Q factor.

  16. Deterministic Graphical Games Revisited

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersson, Klas Olof Daniel; Hansen, Kristoffer Arnsfelt; Miltersen, Peter Bro

    2012-01-01

    Starting from Zermelo’s classical formal treatment of chess, we trace through history the analysis of two-player win/lose/draw games with perfect information and potentially infinite play. Such chess-like games have appeared in many different research communities, and methods for solving them......, such as retrograde analysis, have been rediscovered independently. We then revisit Washburn’s deterministic graphical games (DGGs), a natural generalization of chess-like games to arbitrary zero-sum payoffs. We study the complexity of solving DGGs and obtain an almost-linear time comparison-based algorithm...

  17. Bottomonium spectrum revisited

    CERN Document Server

    Segovia, Jorge; Entem, David R.; Fernández, Francisco

    2016-01-01

    We revisit the bottomonium spectrum motivated by the recently exciting experimental progress in the observation of new bottomonium states, both conventional and unconventional. Our framework is a nonrelativistic constituent quark model which has been applied to a wide range of hadronic observables from the light to the heavy quark sector and thus the model parameters are completely constrained. Beyond the spectrum, we provide a large number of electromagnetic, strong and hadronic decays in order to discuss the quark content of the bottomonium states and give more insights about the better way to determine their properties experimentally.

  18. Metamorphosis in Craniiformea revisited

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Altenburger, Andreas; Wanninger, Andreas; Holmer, Lars E.

    2013-01-01

    We revisited the brachiopod fold hypothesis and investigated metamorphosis in the craniiform brachiopod Novocrania anomala. Larval development is lecithotrophic and the dorsal (brachial) valve is secreted by dorsal epithelia. We found that the juvenile ventral valve, which consists only of a thin...... brachiopods during metamorphosis to cement their pedicle to the substrate. N. anomala is therefore not initially attached by a valve but by material corresponding to pedicle cuticle. This is different to previous descriptions, which had led to speculations about a folding event in the evolution of Brachiopoda...

  19. mediation: R package for causal mediation analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Tingley, Dustin; Yamamoto, Teppei; Hirose, Kentaro; Keele, Luke; Imai, Kosuke

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, we describe the R package mediation for conducting causal mediation analysis in applied empirical research. In many scientific disciplines, the goal of researchers is not only estimating causal effects of a treatment but also understanding the process in which the treatment causally affects the outcome. Causal mediation analysis is frequently used to assess potential causal mechanisms. The mediation package implements a comprehensive suite of statistical tools for conducting su...

  20. A Causal Theory of Modality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Tomás Alvarado

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available This work presents a causal conception of metaphysical modality in which a state of affairs is metaphysically possible if and only if it can be caused (in the past, the present or the future by current entities. The conception is contrasted with what is called the “combinatorial” conception of modality, in which everything can co-exist with anything else. This work explains how the notion of ‘causality’ should be construed in the causal theory, what difference exists between modalities thus defined from nomological modality, how accessibility relations between possible worlds should be interpreted, and what is the relation between the causal conception and the necessity of origin.

  1. Introductive remarks on causal inference

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silvana A. Romio

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available One of the more challenging issues in epidemiological research is being able to provide an unbiased estimate of the causal exposure-disease effect, to assess the possible etiological mechanisms and the implication for public health. A major source of bias is confounding, which can spuriously create or mask the causal relationship. In the last ten years, methodological research has been developed to better de_ne the concept of causation in epidemiology and some important achievements have resulted in new statistical models. In this review, we aim to show how a technique the well known by statisticians, i.e. standardization, can be seen as a method to estimate causal e_ects, equivalent under certain conditions to the inverse probability treatment weight procedure.

  2. Causal reasoning with mental models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khemlani, Sangeet S.; Barbey, Aron K.; Johnson-Laird, Philip N.

    2014-01-01

    This paper outlines the model-based theory of causal reasoning. It postulates that the core meanings of causal assertions are deterministic and refer to temporally-ordered sets of possibilities: A causes B to occur means that given A, B occurs, whereas A enables B to occur means that given A, it is possible for B to occur. The paper shows how mental models represent such assertions, and how these models underlie deductive, inductive, and abductive reasoning yielding explanations. It reviews evidence both to corroborate the theory and to account for phenomena sometimes taken to be incompatible with it. Finally, it reviews neuroscience evidence indicating that mental models for causal inference are implemented within lateral prefrontal cortex. PMID:25389398

  3. Causal reasoning with mental models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khemlani, Sangeet S; Barbey, Aron K; Johnson-Laird, Philip N

    2014-01-01

    This paper outlines the model-based theory of causal reasoning. It postulates that the core meanings of causal assertions are deterministic and refer to temporally-ordered sets of possibilities: A causes B to occur means that given A, B occurs, whereas A enables B to occur means that given A, it is possible for B to occur. The paper shows how mental models represent such assertions, and how these models underlie deductive, inductive, and abductive reasoning yielding explanations. It reviews evidence both to corroborate the theory and to account for phenomena sometimes taken to be incompatible with it. Finally, it reviews neuroscience evidence indicating that mental models for causal inference are implemented within lateral prefrontal cortex.

  4. Causal reasoning with mental models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sangeet eKhemlani

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper outlines the model-based theory of causal reasoning. It postulates that the core meanings of causal assertions are deterministic and refer to temporally-ordered sets of possibilities: A causes B to occur means that given A, B occurs, whereas A enables B to occur means that given A, it is possible for B to occur. The paper shows how mental models represent such assertions, and how these models underlie deductive, inductive, and abductive reasoning yielding explanations. It reviews evidence both to corroborate the theory and to account for phenomena sometimes taken to be incompatible with it. Finally, it reviews neuroscience evidence indicating that mental models for causal inference are implemented within lateral prefrontal cortex.

  5. Sobre a noção de causalidade na medicina: aproximando Austin Bradford Hill e John L. MackieOn the notion of causality in medicine: addressing Austin Bradford Hill and John L. Mackie

    OpenAIRE

    Araújo, Luís Fernando S. C. de; Dalgalarrondo, Paulo; Banzato, Cláudio E. M.

    2014-01-01

    Almost 50 years ago appeared the seminal article by Austin Bradford Hill where he presented parameters for inferring causes from statistical associations, which became known as Hill’s causal criteria. This was a milestone for the renewal of the idea of cause in medicine. Our article revisits his contribution in light of the ideas from the Australian philosopher John L. Mackie, whose important works on causality reached an audience distinct from Hill’s. We suggest that both the Bri...

  6. The problem of causality in corporate governance research: The case of governance indexes and firm valuation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jimmy A. Saravia

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available In recent years the problem of the determination of causality has become an increasingly important question in the field of corporate governance. This paper reviews contemporary literature on the topic of causality, specifically it examines the literature that investigates the causal relationship between corporate governance indexes and firm valuation and finds that the current approach is to attempt to determine causality empirically and that the problem remains unresolved. After explaining the reasons why it is not possible to attempt to determine causality using real world data without falling prey to a logical fallacy, this paper discusses a traditional approach used in science to deal with the problem. In particular, the paper argues that the appropriate approach for the problem is to build theories, with causality featuring as a part of those theories, and then to test those theories both for logical and empirical consistency.

  7. Granger Causality and Unit Roots

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rodríguez-Caballero, Carlos Vladimir; Ventosa-Santaulària, Daniel

    2014-01-01

    The asymptotic behavior of the Granger-causality test under stochastic nonstationarity is studied. Our results confirm that the inference drawn from the test is not reliable when the series are integrated to the first order. In the presence of deterministic components, the test statistic diverges......, eventually rejecting the null hypothesis, even when the series are independent of each other. Moreover, controlling for these deterministic elements (in the auxiliary regressions of the test) does not preclude the possibility of drawing erroneous inferences. Granger-causality tests should not be used under...

  8. Quantum theory and local causality

    CERN Document Server

    Hofer-Szabó, Gábor

    2018-01-01

    This book summarizes the results of research the authors have pursued in the past years on the problem of implementing Bell's notion of local causality in local physical theories and relating it to other important concepts and principles in the foundations of physics such as the Common Cause Principle, Bell's inequalities, the EPR (Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen) scenario, and various other locality and causality concepts. The book is intended for philosophers of science with an interest in the formal background of sciences, philosophers of physics and physicists working in foundation of physics.

  9. Revisiting Nursing Research in Nigeria

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2016-08-18

    Aug 18, 2016 ... health care research, it is therefore pertinent to revisit the state of nursing research in the country. .... platforms, updated libraries with electronic resource ... benchmarks for developing countries of 26%, [17] the amount is still ...

  10. Causality and complexity: the myth of objectivity in science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mikulecky, Donald C

    2007-10-01

    Two distinctly different worldviews dominate today's thinking in science and in the world of ideas outside of science. Using the approach advocated by Robert M. Hutchins, it is possible to see a pattern of interaction between ideas in science and in other spheres such as philosophy, religion, and politics. Instead of compartmentalizing these intellectual activities, it is worthwhile to look for common threads of mutual influence. Robert Rosen has created an approach to scientific epistemology that might seem radical to some. However, it has characteristics that resemble ideas in other fields, in particular in the writings of George Lakoff, Leo Strauss, and George Soros. Historically, the atmosphere at the University of Chicago during Hutchins' presidency gave rise to Rashevsky's relational biology, which Rosen carried forward. Strauss was writing his political philosophy there at the same time. One idea is paramount in all this, and it is Lakoff who gives us the most insight into how the worldviews differ using this idea. The central difference has to do with causality, the fundamental concept that we use to build a worldview. Causal entailment has two distinct forms in Lakoff 's analysis: direct causality and complex causality. Rosen's writings on complexity create a picture of complex causality that is extremely useful in its detail, grounding in the ideas of Aristotle. Strauss asks for a return to the ancients to put philosophy back on track. Lakoff sees the weaknesses in Western philosophy in a similar way, and Rosen provides tools for dealing with the problem. This introduction to the relationships between the thinking of these authors is meant to stimulate further discourse on the role of complex causal entailment in all areas of thought, and how it brings them together in a holistic worldview. The worldview built on complex causality is clearly distinct from that built around simple, direct causality. One important difference is that the impoverished causal

  11. Causality as a Rigorous Notion and Quantitative Causality Analysis with Time Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, X. S.

    2017-12-01

    Given two time series, can one faithfully tell, in a rigorous and quantitative way, the cause and effect between them? Here we show that this important and challenging question (one of the major challenges in the science of big data), which is of interest in a wide variety of disciplines, has a positive answer. Particularly, for linear systems, the maximal likelihood estimator of the causality from a series X2 to another series X1, written T2→1, turns out to be concise in form: T2→1 = [C11 C12 C2,d1 — C112 C1,d1] / [C112 C22 — C11C122] where Cij (i,j=1,2) is the sample covariance between Xi and Xj, and Ci,dj the covariance between Xi and ΔXj/Δt, the difference approximation of dXj/dt using the Euler forward scheme. An immediate corollary is that causation implies correlation, but not vice versa, resolving the long-standing debate over causation versus correlation. The above formula has been validated with touchstone series purportedly generated with one-way causality that evades the classical approaches such as Granger causality test and transfer entropy analysis. It has also been applied successfully to the investigation of many real problems. Through a simple analysis with the stock series of IBM and GE, an unusually strong one-way causality is identified from the former to the latter in their early era, revealing to us an old story, which has almost faded into oblivion, about "Seven Dwarfs" competing with a "Giant" for the computer market. Another example presented here regards the cause-effect relation between the two climate modes, El Niño and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). In general, these modes are mutually causal, but the causality is asymmetric. To El Niño, the information flowing from IOD manifests itself as a propagation of uncertainty from the Indian Ocean. In the third example, an unambiguous one-way causality is found between CO2 and the global mean temperature anomaly. While it is confirmed that CO2 indeed drives the recent global warming

  12. Causal Reasoning with Mental Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-08-08

    The initial rubric is equivalent to an exclusive disjunction between the two causal assertions. It 488 yields the following two mental models: 489...are 575 important, whereas the functions of artifacts are important (Ahn, 1998). A genetic code is 576 accordingly more critical to being a goat than

  13. Identity, causality, and pronoun ambiguity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sagi, Eyal; Rips, Lance J

    2014-10-01

    This article looks at the way people determine the antecedent of a pronoun in sentence pairs, such as: Albert invited Ron to dinner. He spent hours cleaning the house. The experiment reported here is motivated by the idea that such judgments depend on reasoning about identity (e.g., the identity of the he who cleaned the house). Because the identity of an individual over time depends on the causal-historical path connecting the stages of the individual, the correct antecedent will also depend on causal connections. The experiment varied how likely it is that the event of the first sentence (e.g., the invitation) would cause the event of the second (the house cleaning) for each of the two individuals (the likelihood that if Albert invited Ron to dinner, this would cause Albert to clean the house, versus cause Ron to clean the house). Decisions about the antecedent followed causal likelihood. A mathematical model of causal identity accounted for most of the key aspects of the data from the individual sentence pairs. Copyright © 2014 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

  14. Hyperactivity: is candy causal?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krummel, D A; Seligson, F H; Guthrie, H A

    1996-01-01

    Adverse behavioral responses to ingestion of any kind of candy have been reported repeatedly in the lay press. Parents and teachers alike attribute excessive motor activity and other disruptive behaviors to candy consumption. However, anecdotal observations of this kind need to be tested scientifically before conclusions can be drawn, and criteria for interpreting diet behavior studies must be rigorous. Ingredients in nonchocolate candy (sugar, artificial food colors), components in chocolate candy (sugar, artificial food colors in coatings, caffeine), and chocolate itself have been investigated for any adverse effects on behavior. Feingold theorized that food additives (artificial colors and flavors) and natural salicylates caused hyperactivity in children and elimination of these components would result in dramatic improvement in behavior. Numerous double-blind studies of the Feingold hypothesis have led to the rejection of the idea that this elimination diet has any benefit beyond the normal placebo effect. Although sugar is widely believed by the public to cause hyperactive behavior, this has not been scientifically substantiated. Twelve double-blind, placebo-controlled studies of sugar challenges failed to provide any evidence that sugar ingestion leads to untoward behavior in children with Attention-Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder or in normal children. Likewise, none of the studies testing candy or chocolate found any negative effect of these foods on behavior. For children with behavioral problems, diet-oriented treatment does not appear to be appropriate. Rather, clinicians treating these children recommend a multidisciplinary approach. The goal of diet treatment is to ensure a balanced diet with adequate energy and nutrients for optimal growth.

  15. The causal boundary of wave-type spacetimes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Flores, J.L.; Sanchez, M.

    2008-01-01

    A complete and systematic approach to compute the causal boundary of wave-type spacetimes is carried out. The case of a 1-dimensional boundary is specially analyzed and its critical appearance in pp-wave type spacetimes is emphasized. In particular, the corresponding results obtained in the framework of the AdS/CFT correspondence for holography on the boundary, are reinterpreted and very widely generalized. Technically, a recent new definition of causal boundary is used and stressed. Moreover, a set of mathematical tools is introduced (analytical functional approach, Sturm-Liouville theory, Fermat-type arrival time, Busemann-type functions)

  16. Entanglement, holography and causal diamonds

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Boer, Jan; Haehl, Felix M.; Heller, Michal P.; Myers, Robert C.

    2016-08-01

    We argue that the degrees of freedom in a d-dimensional CFT can be reorganized in an insightful way by studying observables on the moduli space of causal diamonds (or equivalently, the space of pairs of timelike separated points). This 2 d-dimensional space naturally captures some of the fundamental nonlocality and causal structure inherent in the entanglement of CFT states. For any primary CFT operator, we construct an observable on this space, which is defined by smearing the associated one-point function over causal diamonds. Known examples of such quantities are the entanglement entropy of vacuum excitations and its higher spin generalizations. We show that in holographic CFTs, these observables are given by suitably defined integrals of dual bulk fields over the corresponding Ryu-Takayanagi minimal surfaces. Furthermore, we explain connections to the operator product expansion and the first law of entanglemententropy from this unifying point of view. We demonstrate that for small perturbations of the vacuum, our observables obey linear two-derivative equations of motion on the space of causal diamonds. In two dimensions, the latter is given by a product of two copies of a two-dimensional de Sitter space. For a class of universal states, we show that the entanglement entropy and its spin-three generalization obey nonlinear equations of motion with local interactions on this moduli space, which can be identified with Liouville and Toda equations, respectively. This suggests the possibility of extending the definition of our new observables beyond the linear level more generally and in such a way that they give rise to new dynamically interacting theories on the moduli space of causal diamonds. Various challenges one has to face in order to implement this idea are discussed.

  17. Entanglement, holography and causal diamonds

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boer, Jan de [Institute of Physics, Universiteit van Amsterdam,Science Park 904, 1090 GL Amsterdam (Netherlands); Haehl, Felix M. [Centre for Particle Theory & Department of Mathematical Sciences, Durham University,South Road, Durham DH1 3LE (United Kingdom); Heller, Michal P.; Myers, Robert C. [Perimeter Institute for Theoretical Physics,31 Caroline Street North, Waterloo, Ontario N2L 2Y5 (Canada)

    2016-08-29

    We argue that the degrees of freedom in a d-dimensional CFT can be re-organized in an insightful way by studying observables on the moduli space of causal diamonds (or equivalently, the space of pairs of timelike separated points). This 2d-dimensional space naturally captures some of the fundamental nonlocality and causal structure inherent in the entanglement of CFT states. For any primary CFT operator, we construct an observable on this space, which is defined by smearing the associated one-point function over causal diamonds. Known examples of such quantities are the entanglement entropy of vacuum excitations and its higher spin generalizations. We show that in holographic CFTs, these observables are given by suitably defined integrals of dual bulk fields over the corresponding Ryu-Takayanagi minimal surfaces. Furthermore, we explain connections to the operator product expansion and the first law of entanglement entropy from this unifying point of view. We demonstrate that for small perturbations of the vacuum, our observables obey linear two-derivative equations of motion on the space of causal diamonds. In two dimensions, the latter is given by a product of two copies of a two-dimensional de Sitter space. For a class of universal states, we show that the entanglement entropy and its spin-three generalization obey nonlinear equations of motion with local interactions on this moduli space, which can be identified with Liouville and Toda equations, respectively. This suggests the possibility of extending the definition of our new observables beyond the linear level more generally and in such a way that they give rise to new dynamically interacting theories on the moduli space of causal diamonds. Various challenges one has to face in order to implement this idea are discussed.

  18. The argumentative impact of causal relations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Anne Ellerup

    1996-01-01

    such as causality, explanation and justification. In certain types of discourse, causal relations also imply an intentional element. This paper describes the way in which the semantic and pragmatic functions of causal markers can be accounted for in terms of linguistic and rhetorical theories of argumentation.......The semantic relations between and within utterances are marked by the use of connectors and adverbials. One type of semantic relations is causal relations expressed by causal markers such as because, therefore, so, for, etc. Some of these markers cover different types of causal relations...

  19. Investigating the multi-causal and complex nature of the accident causal influence of construction project features.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manu, Patrick A; Ankrah, Nii A; Proverbs, David G; Suresh, Subashini

    2012-09-01

    Construction project features (CPFs) are organisational, physical and operational attributes that characterise construction projects. Although previous studies have examined the accident causal influence of CPFs, the multi-causal attribute of this causal phenomenon still remain elusive and thus requires further investigation. Aiming to shed light on this facet of the accident causal phenomenon of CPFs, this study examines relevant literature and crystallises the attained insight of the multi-causal attribute by a graphical model which is subsequently operationalised by a derived mathematical risk expression that offers a systematic approach for evaluating the potential of CPFs to cause harm and consequently their health and safety (H&S) risk implications. The graphical model and the risk expression put forth by the study thus advance current understanding of the accident causal phenomenon of CPFs and they present an opportunity for project participants to manage the H&S risk associated with CPFs from the early stages of project procurement. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Energy use, emissions, economic growth and trade: A Granger non-causality evidence for Malaysia

    OpenAIRE

    Ismail, Mohd Adib; Mawar, Murni Yunus

    2012-01-01

    This paper investigates the relationship among energy, emissions and economic growth in Malaysia with the presence of trade activities. We employ Johansen’s (1995) approach to investigate the relationship. Using annual data from 1971 to 2007, the empirical results shows that there are long-run causalities among energy, emission and economic growth, and among energy, emissions, export and capital, while the short-run Granger non-causality test shows that there are unidirectional causalities ru...

  1. A multivariate analysis of the causal flow between renewable energy consumption and GDP in Tunisia

    OpenAIRE

    Ben Salha, Ousama; Sebri, Maamar

    2013-01-01

    This paper examines the causality linkages between economic growth, renewable energy consumption, CO2 emissions and domestic investment in Tunisia between 1971 and 2010. Using the ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration, long-run relationships between the variables are identified. On the other hand, the Granger causality analysis indicates that there is bi-directional causality between renewable energy consumption and economic growth, which supports the validity of the feedback hypothes...

  2. Life quality index revisited

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ditlevsen, Ove Dalager

    2004-01-01

    The derivation of the life quality index (LQI) is revisited for a revision. This revision takes into account the unpaid but necessary work time needed to stay alive in clean and healthy conditions to be fit for effective wealth producing work and to enjoyable free time. Dimension analysis...... at birth should not vary between countries. Finally the distributional assumptions are relaxed as compared to the assumptions made in an earlier work by the author. These assumptions concern the calculation of the life expectancy change due to the removal of an accident source. Moreover a simple public...... consistency problems with the standard power function expression of the LQI are pointed out. It is emphasized that the combination coefficient in the convex differential combination between the relative differential of the gross domestic product per capita and the relative differential of the expected life...

  3. Quantum duel revisited

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schmidt, Alexandre G M; Paiva, Milena M

    2012-01-01

    We revisit the quantum two-person duel. In this problem, both Alice and Bob each possess a spin-1/2 particle which models dead and alive states for each player. We review the Abbott and Flitney result—now considering non-zero α 1 and α 2 in order to decide if it is better for Alice to shoot or not the second time—and we also consider a duel where players do not necessarily start alive. This simple assumption allows us to explore several interesting special cases, namely how a dead player can win the duel shooting just once, or how can Bob revive Alice after one shot, and the better strategy for Alice—being either alive or in a superposition of alive and dead states—fighting a dead opponent. (paper)

  4. Satellite failures revisited

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balcerak, Ernie

    2012-12-01

    In January 1994, the two geostationary satellites known as Anik-E1 and Anik-E2, operated by Telesat Canada, failed one after the other within 9 hours, leaving many northern Canadian communities without television and data services. The outage, which shut down much of the country's broadcast television for hours and cost Telesat Canada more than $15 million, generated significant media attention. Lam et al. used publicly available records to revisit the event; they looked at failure details, media coverage, recovery effort, and cost. They also used satellite and ground data to determine the precise causes of those satellite failures. The researchers traced the entire space weather event from conditions on the Sun through the interplanetary medium to the particle environment in geostationary orbit.

  5. Reframing in dentistry: Revisited

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sivakumar Nuvvula

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The successful practice of dentistry involves a good combination of technical skills and soft skills. Soft skills or communication skills are not taught extensively in dental schools and it can be challenging to learn and at times in treating dental patients. Guiding the child′s behavior in the dental operatory is one of the preliminary steps to be taken by the pediatric dentist and one who can successfully modify the behavior can definitely pave the way for a life time comprehensive oral care. This article is an attempt to revisit a simple behavior guidance technique, reframing and explain the possible psychological perspectives behind it for better use in the clinical practice.

  6. On causal nonrelativistic classical electrodynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goedecke, G.H.

    1984-01-01

    The differential-difference (DD) motion equations of the causal nonrelativistic classical electrodynamics developed by the author in 1975 are shown to possess only nonrunaway, causal solutions with no discontinuities in particle velocity or position. As an example, the DD equation solution for the problem of an electromagnetic shock incident on an initially stationary charged particle is contrasted with the standard Abraham-Lorentz equation solution. The general Cauchy problem for these DD motion equations is discussed. In general, in order to uniquely determine a solution, the initial data must be more detailed than the standard Cauchy data of initial position and velocity. Conditions are given under which the standard Cauchy data will determine the DD equation solutions to sufficient practical accuracy

  7. Quantum mechanics, relativity and causality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tati, Takao.

    1975-07-01

    In quantum mechanics, the state is prepared by a measurement on a space-like surface sigma. What is that determines the surface sigma on which the measurement prepares the state It is considered either a mechanism proper to the measuring process (apparatus) or a universal property of space-time. In the former case, problems arise, concerning causality or conservation of probability due to that the velocity of reduction of wave-packet is considered to exceed the light velocity. The theory of finite degree of freedom proposed previously belongs to the latter case. In this theory, the surface sigma is restricted to the hyper-plane perpendicular to a universal time-like vector governing causal relations. We propose an experiment to discriminate between the above-mentioned two cases and to test the existence of the universal time-like vector. (auth.)

  8. Modeling of causality with metamaterials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smolyaninov, Igor I

    2013-01-01

    Hyperbolic metamaterials may be used to model a 2 + 1-dimensional Minkowski space–time in which the role of time is played by one of the spatial coordinates. When a metamaterial is built and illuminated with a coherent extraordinary laser beam, the stationary pattern of light propagation inside the metamaterial may be treated as a collection of particle world lines, which represents a complete ‘history’ of this 2 + 1-dimensional space–time. While this model may be used to build interesting space–time analogs, such as metamaterial ‘black holes’ and a metamaterial ‘big bang’, it lacks causality: since light inside the metamaterial may propagate back and forth along the ‘timelike’ spatial coordinate, events in the ‘future’ may affect events in the ‘past’. Here we demonstrate that a more sophisticated metamaterial model may fix this deficiency via breaking the mirror and temporal (PT) symmetries of the original model and producing one-way propagation along the ‘timelike’ spatial coordinate. The resulting 2 + 1-dimensional Minkowski space–time appears to be causal. This scenario may be considered as a metamaterial model of the Wheeler–Feynman absorber theory of causality. (paper)

  9. THE CAUSAL ANALYSIS / DIAGNOSIS DECISION ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    CADDIS is an on-line decision support system that helps investigators in the regions, states and tribes find, access, organize, use and share information to produce causal evaluations in aquatic systems. It is based on the US EPA's Stressor Identification process which is a formal method for identifying causes of impairments in aquatic systems. CADDIS 2007 increases access to relevant information useful for causal analysis and provides methods and tools that practitioners can use to analyze their own data. The new Candidate Cause section provides overviews of commonly encountered causes of impairments to aquatic systems: metals, sediments, nutrients, flow alteration, temperature, ionic strength, and low dissolved oxygen. CADDIS includes new Conceptual Models that illustrate the relationships from sources to stressors to biological effects. An Interactive Conceptual Model for phosphorus links the diagram with supporting literature citations. The new Analyzing Data section helps practitioners analyze their data sets and interpret and use those results as evidence within the USEPA causal assessment process. Downloadable tools include a graphical user interface statistical package (CADStat), and programs for use with the freeware R statistical package, and a Microsoft Excel template. These tools can be used to quantify associations between causes and biological impairments using innovative methods such as species-sensitivity distributions, biological inferenc

  10. Causal structure of analogue spacetimes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barcelo, Carlos; Liberati, Stefano; Sonego, Sebastiano; Visser, Matt

    2004-01-01

    The so-called 'analogue models of general relativity' provide a number of specific physical systems, well outside the traditional realm of general relativity, that nevertheless are well-described by the differential geometry of curved spacetime. Specifically, the propagation of perturbations in these condensed matter systems is described by 'effective metrics' that carry with them notions of 'causal structure' as determined by an exchange of quasi-particles. These quasi-particle-induced causal structures serve as specific examples of what can be done in the presence of a Lorentzian metric without having recourse to the Einstein equations of general relativity. (After all, the underlying analogue model is governed by its own specific physics, not necessarily by the Einstein equations.) In this paper we take a careful look at what can be said about the causal structure of analogue spacetimes, focusing on those containing quasi-particle horizons, both with a view to seeing what is different from standard general relativity, and what the similarities might be. For definiteness, and because the physics is particularly simple to understand, we will phrase much of the discussion in terms of acoustic disturbances in moving fluids, where the underlying physics is ordinary fluid mechanics, governed by the equations of traditional hydrodynamics, and the relevant quasi-particles are the phonons. It must however be emphasized that this choice of example is only for the sake of pedagogical simplicity and that our considerations apply generically to wide classes of analogue spacetimes

  11. Obesity and infection: reciprocal causality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hainer, V; Zamrazilová, H; Kunešová, M; Bendlová, B; Aldhoon-Hainerová, I

    2015-01-01

    Associations between different infectious agents and obesity have been reported in humans for over thirty years. In many cases, as in nosocomial infections, this relationship reflects the greater susceptibility of obese individuals to infection due to impaired immunity. In such cases, the infection is not related to obesity as a causal factor but represents a complication of obesity. In contrast, several infections have been suggested as potential causal factors in human obesity. However, evidence of a causal linkage to human obesity has only been provided for adenovirus 36 (Adv36). This virus activates lipogenic and proinflammatory pathways in adipose tissue, improves insulin sensitivity, lipid profile and hepatic steatosis. The E4orf1 gene of Adv36 exerts insulin senzitizing effects, but is devoid of its pro-inflammatory modalities. The development of a vaccine to prevent Adv36-induced obesity or the use of E4orf1 as a ligand for novel antidiabetic drugs could open new horizons in the prophylaxis and treatment of obesity and diabetes. More experimental and clinical studies are needed to elucidate the mutual relations between infection and obesity, identify additional infectious agents causing human obesity, as well as define the conditions that predispose obese individuals to specific infections.

  12. Behavioural Pattern of Causality Parameter of Autoregressive ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In this paper, a causal form of Autoregressive Moving Average process, ARMA (p, q) of various orders and behaviour of the causality parameter of ARMA model is investigated. It is deduced that the behaviour of causality parameter ψi depends on positive and negative values of autoregressive parameter φ and moving ...

  13. Exploring Individual Differences in Preschoolers' Causal Stance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alvarez, Aubry; Booth, Amy E.

    2016-01-01

    Preschoolers, as a group, are highly attuned to causality, and this attunement is known to facilitate memory, learning, and problem solving. However, recent work reveals substantial individual variability in the strength of children's "causal stance," as demonstrated by their curiosity about and preference for new causal information. In…

  14. Representing Personal Determinants in Causal Structures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bandura, Albert

    1984-01-01

    Responds to Staddon's critique of the author's earlier article and addresses issues raised by Staddon's (1984) alternative models of causality. The author argues that it is not the formalizability of causal processes that is the issue but whether cognitive determinants of behavior are reducible to past stimulus inputs in causal structures.…

  15. Causal inference in economics and marketing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varian, Hal R

    2016-07-05

    This is an elementary introduction to causal inference in economics written for readers familiar with machine learning methods. The critical step in any causal analysis is estimating the counterfactual-a prediction of what would have happened in the absence of the treatment. The powerful techniques used in machine learning may be useful for developing better estimates of the counterfactual, potentially improving causal inference.

  16. Causal knowledge and reasoning in decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hagmayer, Y.; Witteman, C.L.M.

    2017-01-01

    Normative causal decision theories argue that people should use their causal knowledge in decision making. Based on these ideas, we argue that causal knowledge and reasoning may support and thereby potentially improve decision making based on expected outcomes, narratives, and even cues. We will

  17. Emergent Geometry from Entropy and Causality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engelhardt, Netta

    generalizations are discussed, both at the classical and perturbatively quantum limits. In particular, several No Go Theorems are proven, indicative of a conclusion that supplementary approaches or information may be necessary to recover the full spacetime geometry. Part II of this thesis involves the relation between geometry and causality, the property that information cannot travel faster than light. Requiring this of any quantum field theory results in constraints on string theory setups that are dual to quantum field theories via the AdS/CFT correspondence. At the level of perturbative quantum gravity, it is shown that causality in the field theory constraints the causal structure in the bulk. At the level of nonperturbative quantum string theory, we find that constraints on causal signals restrict the possible ways in which curvature singularities can be resolved in string theory. Finally, a new program of research is proposed for the construction of bulk geometry from the divergences of correlation functions in the dual field theory. This divergence structure is linked to the causal structure of the bulk and of the field theory.

  18. The Importance of Qualitative Research for Causal Explanation in Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maxwell, Joseph A.

    2012-01-01

    The concept of causation has long been controversial in qualitative research, and many qualitative researchers have rejected causal explanation as incompatible with an interpretivist or constructivist approach. This rejection conflates causation with the positivist "theory" of causation, and ignores an alternative understanding of causation,…

  19. Explanation in causal inference methods for mediation and interaction

    CERN Document Server

    VanderWeele, Tyler

    2015-01-01

    A comprehensive examination of methods for mediation and interaction, VanderWeele's book is the first to approach this topic from the perspective of causal inference. Numerous software tools are provided, and the text is both accessible and easy to read, with examples drawn from diverse fields. The result is an essential reference for anyone conducting empirical research in the biomedical or social sciences.

  20. Quantum gravity from simplices: analytical investigations of causal dynamical triangulations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Benedetti, D.

    2007-01-01

    A potentially powerful approach to quantum gravity has been developed over the last few years under the name of Causal Dynamical Triangulations. Although these models can be solved exactly in a variety of ways in the case of pure gravity in (1+1) dimensions,it is difficult to extend any of the

  1. A theory of causal learning in children: causal maps and Bayes nets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gopnik, Alison; Glymour, Clark; Sobel, David M; Schulz, Laura E; Kushnir, Tamar; Danks, David

    2004-01-01

    The authors outline a cognitive and computational account of causal learning in children. They propose that children use specialized cognitive systems that allow them to recover an accurate "causal map" of the world: an abstract, coherent, learned representation of the causal relations among events. This kind of knowledge can be perspicuously understood in terms of the formalism of directed graphical causal models, or Bayes nets. Children's causal learning and inference may involve computations similar to those for learning causal Bayes nets and for predicting with them. Experimental results suggest that 2- to 4-year-old children construct new causal maps and that their learning is consistent with the Bayes net formalism.

  2. Causality and unitarity via the tree-loop duality relation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tomboulis, E.T. [Mani L. Bhaumik Institute for Theoretical Physics,Department of Physics and Astronomy, UCLA,Los Angeles, CA 90095-1547 (United States)

    2017-05-29

    The tree-loop duality relation is used as a starting point to derive the constraints of causality and unitarity. Specifically, the Bogoliubov causality condition is ab initio derived at the individual graph level. It leads to a representation of a graph in terms of lower order cut graphs. Extracting the absorptive part gives then the general unitarity relation (Cutkosky rule). The derivation, being carried out directly in momentum space, holds for any local (polynomial) hermitian interaction vertices. This is in contrast to the technical difficulties arising from contact terms in the spacetime approach based on the largest time equation.

  3. Norms and customs: causally important or causally impotent?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Todd

    2010-01-01

    In this article, I argue that norms and customs, despite frequently being described as being causes of behavior in the social sciences and ordinary conversation, cannot really cause behavior. Terms like "norms" and the like seem to refer to philosophically disreputable disjunctive properties. More problematically, even if they do not, or even if there can be disjunctive properties after all, I argue that norms and customs still cannot cause behavior. The social sciences would be better off without referring to properties like norms and customs as if they could be causal.

  4. Economic Growth, Foreign Direct Investment and CO2 Emissions in China: A Panel Granger Causality Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongfeng Peng

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Using a sample of province-level panel data, this paper investigates the Granger causality associations among economic growth (GDP, foreign direct investment (FDI and CO2 emissions in China. By applying the bootstrap Granger panel causality approach (Kónya, 2006, we consider both cross-sectional dependence and homogeneity of different regions in China. The empirical results support that the causality direction not only works in a single direction either from GDP to FDI (in Yunnan or from FDI to GDP (in Beijing, Neimenggu, Jilin, Shanxi and Gansu, but it also works in both directions (in Henan. Moreover, we document that GDP is Granger-causing CO2 emissions in Neimenggu, Hubei, Guangxi and Gansu while there is bidirectional causality between these two variables in Shanxi. In the end, we identify the unidirectional causality from FDI to CO2 emissions in Beijing, Henan, Guizhou and Shanxi, and the bidirectional causality between FDI and CO2 emissions in Neimenggu.

  5. The Use of Causal Mapping in the Design of Sustainability Performance Measurement Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Parisi, Cristiana

    2013-01-01

    organisations’ strategic performance measurement systems (SPMSs). This study’s main contribution is the triangulation of multiple qualitative methods to enhance the reliability of causal maps. This innovative approach supports the use of causal mapping to extract managerial tacit knowledge in order to identify...

  6. Reconstructing Constructivism: Causal Models, Bayesian Learning Mechanisms, and the Theory Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gopnik, Alison; Wellman, Henry M.

    2012-01-01

    We propose a new version of the "theory theory" grounded in the computational framework of probabilistic causal models and Bayesian learning. Probabilistic models allow a constructivist but rigorous and detailed approach to cognitive development. They also explain the learning of both more specific causal hypotheses and more abstract framework…

  7. A theory of causal learning in children: Causal maps and Bayes nets

    OpenAIRE

    Gopnik, A; Glymour, C; Sobel, D M; Schulz, L E; Kushnir, T; Danks, D

    2004-01-01

    The authors outline a cognitive and computational account of causal learning in children. They propose that children use specialized cognitive systems that allow them to recover an accurate "causal map" of the world: an abstract, coherent, learned representation of the causal relations among events. This kind of knowledge can be perspicuously understood in terms of the formalism of directed graphical causal models, or Bayes nets. Children's causal learning and inference may involve computatio...

  8. Predicting the Cosmological Constant from the Causal Entropic Principle

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bousso, Raphael; Bousso, Raphael; Harnik, Roni; Kribs, Graham D.; Perez, Gilad

    2007-05-01

    We compute the expected value of the cosmological constant in our universe from the Causal Entropic Principle. Since observers must obey the laws of thermodynamics and causality, the principle asserts that physical parameters are most likely to be found in the range of values for which the total entropy production within a causally connected region is maximized. Despite the absence of more explicit anthropic criteria, the resulting probability distribution turns out to be in excellent agreement with observation. In particular, we find that dust heated by stars dominates the entropy production, demonstrating the remarkable power of this thermodynamic selection criterion. The alternative approach-weighting by the number of"observers per baryon" -- is less well-defined, requires problematic assumptions about the nature of observers, and yet prefers values larger than present experimental bounds.

  9. Predicting the Cosmological Constant from the CausalEntropic Principle

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bousso, Raphael; Harnik, Roni; Kribs, Graham D.; Perez, Gilad

    2007-02-20

    We compute the expected value of the cosmological constant in our universe from the Causal Entropic Principle. Since observers must obey the laws of thermodynamics and causality, it asserts that physical parameters are most likely to be found in the range of values for which the total entropy production within a causally connected region is maximized. Despite the absence of more explicit anthropic criteria, the resulting probability distribution turns out to be in excellent agreement with observation. In particular, we find that dust heated by stars dominates the entropy production, demonstrating the remarkable power of this thermodynamic selection criterion. The alternative approach--weighting by the number of ''observers per baryon''--is less well-defined, requires problematic assumptions about the nature of observers, and yet prefers values larger than present experimental bounds.

  10. The Causal Relationship between Health and Education Expenditures in Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chor Foon TANG

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available A major macroeconomic policy in generating economic growth is to encourage investments on human capital such as health and education. This is because both health and education make significant contribution to increasing productivity of the labour force which ultimately exerts a positive effect on raising output levels. A question that arises is whether investments on health and education have a causal relationship and if so, what is the directional causality? The objective of this study is to examine the causal relationship between health and education expenditures in Malaysia. This study covered annual data from 1970 to 2007. Using Granger causality as well as Toda and Yamamoto MWALD causality approaches, this study suggests that education Granger-causes health expenditure in both the short run and long run. The findings of this study implied that the Malaysian society places preference on education expenditure rather than health. This preference is not unexpected as generally, an educated and knowledgeable society precedes a healthy one. Before a society has attained a relatively higher level of education, it is less aware of the importance of health. Thus, expenditure on education should lead expenditure on health.

  11. Electricity consumption-real GDP causality nexus: Evidence from a bootstrapped causality test for 30 OECD countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Narayan, Paresh Kumar; Prasad, Arti

    2008-01-01

    The goal of this paper is to examine any causal effects between electricity consumption and real GDP for 30 OECD countries. We use a bootstrapped causality testing approach and unravel evidence in favour of electricity consumption causing real GDP in Australia, Iceland, Italy, the Slovak Republic, the Czech Republic, Korea, Portugal, and the UK. The implication is that electricity conservation policies will negatively impact real GDP in these countries. However, for the rest of the 22 countries our findings suggest that electricity conversation policies will not affect real GDP

  12. Causal mediation analysis with multiple causally non-ordered mediators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taguri, Masataka; Featherstone, John; Cheng, Jing

    2018-01-01

    In many health studies, researchers are interested in estimating the treatment effects on the outcome around and through an intermediate variable. Such causal mediation analyses aim to understand the mechanisms that explain the treatment effect. Although multiple mediators are often involved in real studies, most of the literature considered mediation analyses with one mediator at a time. In this article, we consider mediation analyses when there are causally non-ordered multiple mediators. Even if the mediators do not affect each other, the sum of two indirect effects through the two mediators considered separately may diverge from the joint natural indirect effect when there are additive interactions between the effects of the two mediators on the outcome. Therefore, we derive an equation for the joint natural indirect effect based on the individual mediation effects and their interactive effect, which helps us understand how the mediation effect works through the two mediators and relative contributions of the mediators and their interaction. We also discuss an extension for three mediators. The proposed method is illustrated using data from a randomized trial on the prevention of dental caries.

  13. Causality in Psychiatry: A Hybrid Symptom Network Construct Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gerald eYoung

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Causality or etiology in psychiatry is marked by standard biomedical, reductionistic models (symptoms reflect the construct involved that inform approaches to nosology, or classification, such as in the DSM-5 (Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fifth Edition; American Psychiatric Association, 2013. However, network approaches to symptom interaction (i.e., symptoms are formative of the construct; e.g., McNally, Robinaugh, Wu, Wang, Deserno, & Borsboom, 2014, for PTSD (posttraumatic stress disorder are being developed that speak to bottom-up processes in mental disorder, in contrast to the typical top-down psychological construct approach. The present article presents a hybrid top-down, bottom-up model of the relationship between symptoms and mental disorder, viewing symptom expression and their causal complex as a reciprocally dynamic system with multiple levels, from lower-order symptoms in interaction to higher-order constructs affecting them. The hybrid model hinges on good understanding of systems theory in which it is embedded, so that the article reviews in depth nonlinear dynamical systems theory (NLDST. The article applies the concept of emergent circular causality (Young, 2011 to symptom development, as well. Conclusions consider that symptoms vary over several dimensions, including: subjectivity; objectivity; conscious motivation effort; and unconscious influences, and the degree to which individual (e.g., meaning and universal (e.g., causal processes are involved. The opposition between science and skepticism is a complex one that the article addresses in final comments.

  14. Equity Theory Ratios as Causal Schemas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexios Arvanitis

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Equity theory approaches justice evaluations based on ratios of exchange inputs to exchange outcomes. Situations are evaluated as just if ratios are equal and unjust if unequal. We suggest that equity ratios serve a more fundamental cognitive function than the evaluation of justice. More particularly, we propose that they serve as causal schemas for exchange outcomes, that is, they assist in determining whether certain outcomes are caused by inputs of other people in the context of an exchange process. Equality or inequality of ratios in this sense points to an exchange process. Indeed, Study 1 shows that different exchange situations, such as disproportional or balanced proportional situations, create perceptions of give-and-take on the basis of equity ratios. Study 2 shows that perceptions of justice are based more on communicatively accepted rules of interaction than equity-based evaluations, thereby offering a distinction between an attribution and an evaluation cognitive process for exchange outcomes.

  15. Equity Theory Ratios as Causal Schemas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arvanitis, Alexios; Hantzi, Alexandra

    2016-01-01

    Equity theory approaches justice evaluations based on ratios of exchange inputs to exchange outcomes. Situations are evaluated as just if ratios are equal and unjust if unequal. We suggest that equity ratios serve a more fundamental cognitive function than the evaluation of justice. More particularly, we propose that they serve as causal schemas for exchange outcomes, that is, they assist in determining whether certain outcomes are caused by inputs of other people in the context of an exchange process. Equality or inequality of ratios in this sense points to an exchange process. Indeed, Study 1 shows that different exchange situations, such as disproportional or balanced proportional situations, create perceptions of give-and-take on the basis of equity ratios. Study 2 shows that perceptions of justice are based more on communicatively accepted rules of interaction than equity-based evaluations, thereby offering a distinction between an attribution and an evaluation cognitive process for exchange outcomes.

  16. The critical catastrophe revisited

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Mulatier, Clélia; Rosso, Alberto; Dumonteil, Eric; Zoia, Andrea

    2015-01-01

    The neutron population in a prototype model of nuclear reactor can be described in terms of a collection of particles confined in a box and undergoing three key random mechanisms: diffusion, reproduction due to fissions, and death due to absorption events. When the reactor is operated at the critical point, and fissions are exactly compensated by absorptions, the whole neutron population might in principle go to extinction because of the wild fluctuations induced by births and deaths. This phenomenon, which has been named critical catastrophe, is nonetheless never observed in practice: feedback mechanisms acting on the total population, such as human intervention, have a stabilizing effect. In this work, we revisit the critical catastrophe by investigating the spatial behaviour of the fluctuations in a confined geometry. When the system is free to evolve, the neutrons may display a wild patchiness (clustering). On the contrary, imposing a population control on the total population acts also against the local fluctuations, and may thus inhibit the spatial clustering. The effectiveness of population control in quenching spatial fluctuations will be shown to depend on the competition between the mixing time of the neutrons (i.e. the average time taken for a particle to explore the finite viable space) and the extinction time

  17. Magnetic moments revisited

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Towner, I.S.; Khanna, F.C.

    1984-01-01

    Consideration of core polarization, isobar currents and meson-exchange processes gives a satisfactory understanding of the ground-state magnetic moments in closed-shell-plus (or minus)-one nuclei, A = 3, 15, 17, 39 and 41. Ever since the earliest days of the nuclear shell model the understanding of magnetic moments of nuclear states of supposedly simple configurations, such as doubly closed LS shells +-1 nucleon, has been a challenge for theorists. The experimental moments, which in most cases are known with extraordinary precision, show a small yet significant departure from the single-particle Schmidt values. The departure, however, is difficult to evaluate precisely since, as will be seen, it results from a sensitive cancellation between several competing corrections each of which can be as large as the observed discrepancy. This, then, is the continuing fascination of magnetic moments. In this contribution, we revisit the subjet principally to identify the role played by isobar currents, which are of much concern at this conference. But in so doing we warn quite strongly of the dangers of considering just isobar currents in isolation; equal consideration must be given to competing processes which in this context are the mundane nuclear structure effects, such as core polarization, and the more popular meson-exchange currents

  18. Lorentz violation naturalness revisited

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Belenchia, Alessio; Gambassi, Andrea; Liberati, Stefano [SISSA - International School for Advanced Studies, via Bonomea 265, 34136 Trieste (Italy); INFN, Sezione di Trieste, via Valerio 2, 34127 Trieste (Italy)

    2016-06-08

    We revisit here the naturalness problem of Lorentz invariance violations on a simple toy model of a scalar field coupled to a fermion field via a Yukawa interaction. We first review some well-known results concerning the low-energy percolation of Lorentz violation from high energies, presenting some details of the analysis not explicitly discussed in the literature and discussing some previously unnoticed subtleties. We then show how a separation between the scale of validity of the effective field theory and that one of Lorentz invariance violations can hinder this low-energy percolation. While such protection mechanism was previously considered in the literature, we provide here a simple illustration of how it works and of its general features. Finally, we consider a case in which dissipation is present, showing that the dissipative behaviour does not percolate generically to lower mass dimension operators albeit dispersion does. Moreover, we show that a scale separation can protect from unsuppressed low-energy percolation also in this case.

  19. The Functions of Danish Causal Conjunctions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rita Therkelsen

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available In the article I propose an analysis of the Danish causal conjunctions fordi, siden and for based on the framework of Danish Functional Grammar. As conjunctions they relate two clauses, and their semantics have in common that it indicates a causal relationship between the clauses. The causal conjunctions are different as far as their distribution is concerned; siden conjoins a subordinate clause and a main clause, for conjoins two main clauses, and fordi is able to do both. Methodologically I have based my analysis on these distributional properties comparing siden and fordi conjoining a subordinate and a main clause, and comparing for and fordi conjoining two main clauses, following the thesis that they would establish a causal relationship between different kinds of content. My main findings are that fordi establishes a causal relationship between the events referred to by the two clauses, and the whole utterance functions as a statement of this causal relationship. Siden presupposes such a general causal relationship between the two events and puts forward the causing event as a reason for assuming or wishing or ordering the caused event, siden thus establishes a causal relationship between an event and a speech act. For equally presupposes a general causal relationship between two events and it establishes a causal relationship between speech acts, and fordi conjoining two main clauses is able to do this too, but in this position it also maintains its event-relating ability, the interpretation depending on contextual factors.

  20. Space and time in perceptual causality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benjamin Straube

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Inferring causality is a fundamental feature of human cognition that allows us to theorize about and predict future states of the world. Michotte suggested that humans automatically perceive causality based on certain perceptual features of events. However, individual differences in judgments of perceptual causality cast doubt on Michotte’s view. To gain insights in the neural basis of individual difference in the perception of causality, our participants judged causal relationships in animations of a blue ball colliding with a red ball (a launching event while fMRI-data were acquired. Spatial continuity and temporal contiguity were varied parametrically in these stimuli. We did not find consistent brain activation differences between trials judged as caused and those judged as non-caused, making it unlikely that humans have universal instantiation of perceptual causality in the brain. However, participants were slower to respond to and showed greater neural activity for violations of causality, suggesting that humans are biased to expect causal relationships when moving objects appear to interact. Our participants demonstrated considerable individual differences in their sensitivity to spatial and temporal characteristics in perceiving causality. These qualitative differences in sensitivity to time or space in perceiving causality were instantiated in individual differences in activation of the left basal ganglia or right parietal lobe, respectively. Thus, the perception that the movement of one object causes the movement of another is triggered by elemental spatial and temporal sensitivities, which themselves are instantiated in specific distinct neural networks.

  1. Causal diagrams in systems epidemiology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joffe Michael

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Methods of diagrammatic modelling have been greatly developed in the past two decades. Outside the context of infectious diseases, systematic use of diagrams in epidemiology has been mainly confined to the analysis of a single link: that between a disease outcome and its proximal determinant(s. Transmitted causes ("causes of causes" tend not to be systematically analysed. The infectious disease epidemiology modelling tradition models the human population in its environment, typically with the exposure-health relationship and the determinants of exposure being considered at individual and group/ecological levels, respectively. Some properties of the resulting systems are quite general, and are seen in unrelated contexts such as biochemical pathways. Confining analysis to a single link misses the opportunity to discover such properties. The structure of a causal diagram is derived from knowledge about how the world works, as well as from statistical evidence. A single diagram can be used to characterise a whole research area, not just a single analysis - although this depends on the degree of consistency of the causal relationships between different populations - and can therefore be used to integrate multiple datasets. Additional advantages of system-wide models include: the use of instrumental variables - now emerging as an important technique in epidemiology in the context of mendelian randomisation, but under-used in the exploitation of "natural experiments"; the explicit use of change models, which have advantages with respect to inferring causation; and in the detection and elucidation of feedback.

  2. Causal diagrams in systems epidemiology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joffe, Michael; Gambhir, Manoj; Chadeau-Hyam, Marc; Vineis, Paolo

    2012-03-19

    Methods of diagrammatic modelling have been greatly developed in the past two decades. Outside the context of infectious diseases, systematic use of diagrams in epidemiology has been mainly confined to the analysis of a single link: that between a disease outcome and its proximal determinant(s). Transmitted causes ("causes of causes") tend not to be systematically analysed.The infectious disease epidemiology modelling tradition models the human population in its environment, typically with the exposure-health relationship and the determinants of exposure being considered at individual and group/ecological levels, respectively. Some properties of the resulting systems are quite general, and are seen in unrelated contexts such as biochemical pathways. Confining analysis to a single link misses the opportunity to discover such properties.The structure of a causal diagram is derived from knowledge about how the world works, as well as from statistical evidence. A single diagram can be used to characterise a whole research area, not just a single analysis - although this depends on the degree of consistency of the causal relationships between different populations - and can therefore be used to integrate multiple datasets.Additional advantages of system-wide models include: the use of instrumental variables - now emerging as an important technique in epidemiology in the context of mendelian randomisation, but under-used in the exploitation of "natural experiments"; the explicit use of change models, which have advantages with respect to inferring causation; and in the detection and elucidation of feedback.

  3. Probabilistic causality and radiogenic cancers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Groeer, P.G.

    1986-01-01

    A review and scrutiny of the literature on probability and probabilistic causality shows that it is possible under certain assumptions to estimate the probability that a certain type of cancer diagnosed in an individual exposed to radiation prior to diagnosis was caused by this exposure. Diagnosis of this causal relationship like diagnosis of any disease - malignant or not - requires always some subjective judgments by the diagnostician. It is, therefore, illusory to believe that tables based on actuarial data can provide objective estimates of the chance that a cancer diagnosed in an individual is radiogenic. It is argued that such tables can only provide a base from which the diagnostician(s) deviate in one direction or the other according to his (their) individual (consensual) judgment. Acceptance of a physician's diagnostic judgment by patients is commonplace. Similar widespread acceptance of expert judgment by claimants in radiation compensation cases does presently not exist. Judicious use of the present radioepidemiological tables prepared by the Working Group of the National Institutes of Health or of updated future versions of similar tables may improve the situation. 20 references

  4. Leadership and Management Theories Revisited

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Mona Toft

    2001-01-01

    The goal of the paper is to revisit and analyze key contributions to the understanding of leadership and management. As a part of the discussion a role perspective that allows for additional and/or integrated leader dimensions, including a change-centered, will be outlined. Seemingly, a major...

  5. Revisiting Inter-Genre Similarity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sturm, Bob L.; Gouyon, Fabien

    2013-01-01

    We revisit the idea of ``inter-genre similarity'' (IGS) for machine learning in general, and music genre recognition in particular. We show analytically that the probability of error for IGS is higher than naive Bayes classification with zero-one loss (NB). We show empirically that IGS does...... not perform well, even for data that satisfies all its assumptions....

  6. Inferring causal molecular networks: empirical assessment through a community-based effort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Steven M; Heiser, Laura M; Cokelaer, Thomas; Unger, Michael; Nesser, Nicole K; Carlin, Daniel E; Zhang, Yang; Sokolov, Artem; Paull, Evan O; Wong, Chris K; Graim, Kiley; Bivol, Adrian; Wang, Haizhou; Zhu, Fan; Afsari, Bahman; Danilova, Ludmila V; Favorov, Alexander V; Lee, Wai Shing; Taylor, Dane; Hu, Chenyue W; Long, Byron L; Noren, David P; Bisberg, Alexander J; Mills, Gordon B; Gray, Joe W; Kellen, Michael; Norman, Thea; Friend, Stephen; Qutub, Amina A; Fertig, Elana J; Guan, Yuanfang; Song, Mingzhou; Stuart, Joshua M; Spellman, Paul T; Koeppl, Heinz; Stolovitzky, Gustavo; Saez-Rodriguez, Julio; Mukherjee, Sach

    2016-04-01

    It remains unclear whether causal, rather than merely correlational, relationships in molecular networks can be inferred in complex biological settings. Here we describe the HPN-DREAM network inference challenge, which focused on learning causal influences in signaling networks. We used phosphoprotein data from cancer cell lines as well as in silico data from a nonlinear dynamical model. Using the phosphoprotein data, we scored more than 2,000 networks submitted by challenge participants. The networks spanned 32 biological contexts and were scored in terms of causal validity with respect to unseen interventional data. A number of approaches were effective, and incorporating known biology was generally advantageous. Additional sub-challenges considered time-course prediction and visualization. Our results suggest that learning causal relationships may be feasible in complex settings such as disease states. Furthermore, our scoring approach provides a practical way to empirically assess inferred molecular networks in a causal sense.

  7. The discourse of causal explanations in school science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slater, Tammy Jayne Anne

    Researchers and educators working from a systemic functional linguistic perspective have provided a body of work on science discourse which offers an excellent starting point for examining the linguistic aspects of the development of causal discourse in school science, discourse which Derewianka (1995) claimed is critical to success in secondary school. No work has yet described the development of causal language by identifying the linguistic features present in oral discourse or by comparing the causal discourse of native and non-native (ESL) speakers of English. The current research responds to this gap by examining the oral discourse collected from ESL and non-ESL students at the primary and high school grades. Specifically, it asks the following questions: (1) How do the teachers and students in these four contexts develop causal explanations and their relevant taxonomies through classroom interactions? (2) What are the causal discourse features being used by the students in these four contexts to construct oral causal explanations? The findings of the social practice analysis showed that the teachers in the four contexts differed in their approaches to teaching, with the primary school mainstream teacher focusing largely on the hands-on practice , the primary school ESL teacher moving from practice to theory, the high school mainstream teacher moving from theory to practice, and the high school ESL teacher relying primarily on theory. The findings from the quantitative, small corpus approach suggest that the developmental path of cause which has been identified in the writing of experts shows up not only in written texts but also in the oral texts which learners construct. Moreover, this move appears when the discourse of high school ESL and non-ESL students is compared, suggesting a developmental progression in the acquisition of these features by these students. The findings also reveal that the knowledge constructed, as shown by the concept maps created

  8. An Algorithmic Information Calculus for Causal Discovery and Reprogramming Systems

    KAUST Repository

    Zenil, Hector

    2017-09-08

    We introduce a conceptual framework and an interventional calculus to steer and manipulate systems based on their intrinsic algorithmic probability using the universal principles of the theory of computability and algorithmic information. By applying sequences of controlled interventions to systems and networks, we estimate how changes in their algorithmic information content are reflected in positive/negative shifts towards and away from randomness. The strong connection between approximations to algorithmic complexity (the size of the shortest generating mechanism) and causality induces a sequence of perturbations ranking the network elements by the steering capabilities that each of them is capable of. This new dimension unmasks a separation between causal and non-causal components providing a suite of powerful parameter-free algorithms of wide applicability ranging from optimal dimension reduction, maximal randomness analysis and system control. We introduce methods for reprogramming systems that do not require the full knowledge or access to the system\\'s actual kinetic equations or any probability distributions. A causal interventional analysis of synthetic and regulatory biological networks reveals how the algorithmic reprogramming qualitatively reshapes the system\\'s dynamic landscape. For example, during cellular differentiation we find a decrease in the number of elements corresponding to a transition away from randomness and a combination of the system\\'s intrinsic properties and its intrinsic capabilities to be algorithmically reprogrammed can reconstruct an epigenetic landscape. The interventional calculus is broadly applicable to predictive causal inference of systems such as networks and of relevance to a variety of machine and causal learning techniques driving model-based approaches to better understanding and manipulate complex systems.

  9. Dynamics and causalities of atmospheric and oceanic data identified by complex networks and Granger causality analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charakopoulos, A. K.; Katsouli, G. A.; Karakasidis, T. E.

    2018-04-01

    Understanding the underlying processes and extracting detailed characteristics of spatiotemporal dynamics of ocean and atmosphere as well as their interaction is of significant interest and has not been well thoroughly established. The purpose of this study was to examine the performance of two main additional methodologies for the identification of spatiotemporal underlying dynamic characteristics and patterns among atmospheric and oceanic variables from Seawatch buoys from Aegean and Ionian Sea, provided by the Hellenic Center for Marine Research (HCMR). The first approach involves the estimation of cross correlation analysis in an attempt to investigate time-lagged relationships, and further in order to identify the direction of interactions between the variables we performed the Granger causality method. According to the second approach the time series are converted into complex networks and then the main topological network properties such as degree distribution, average path length, diameter, modularity and clustering coefficient are evaluated. Our results show that the proposed analysis of complex network analysis of time series can lead to the extraction of hidden spatiotemporal characteristics. Also our findings indicate high level of positive and negative correlations and causalities among variables, both from the same buoy and also between buoys from different stations, which cannot be determined from the use of simple statistical measures.

  10. 'Counterfeit deviance' revisited.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffiths, Dorothy; Hingsburger, Dave; Hoath, Jordan; Ioannou, Stephanie

    2013-09-01

    The field has seen a renewed interest in exploring the theory of 'counterfeit deviance' for persons with intellectual disability who sexually offend. The term was first presented in 1991 by Hingsburger, Griffiths and Quinsey as a means to differentiate in clinical assessment a subgroup of persons with intellectual disability whose behaviours appeared like paraphilia but served a function that was not related to paraphilia sexual urges or fantasies. Case observations were put forward to provide differential diagnosis of paraphilia in persons with intellectual disabilities compared to those with counterfeit deviance. The brief paper was published in a journal that is no longer available and as such much of what is currently written on the topic is based on secondary sources. The current paper presents a theoretical piece to revisit the original counterfeit deviance theory to clarify the myths and misconceptions that have arisen and evaluate the theory based on additional research and clinical findings. The authors also propose areas where there may be a basis for expansion of the theory. The theory of counterfeit deviance still has relevance as a consideration for clinicians when assessing the nature of a sexual offence committed by a person with an intellectual disability. Clinical differentiation of paraphilia from counterfeit deviance provides a foundation for intervention that is designed to specifically treat the underlying factors that contributed to the offence for a given individual. Counterfeit deviance is a concept that continues to provide areas for consideration for clinicians regarding the assessment and treatment of an individual with an intellectual disability who has sexually offended. It is not and never was an explanation for all sexually offending behavior among persons with intellectual disabilities. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  11. Izmit Foreshocks Revisited

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellsworth, W. L.; Bulut, F.

    2016-12-01

    Much of what we know about the initiation of earthquakes comes from the temporal and spatial relationship of foreshocks to the initiation point of the mainshock. The 1999 Mw 7.6 Izmit, Turkey, earthquake was preceded by a 44 minute-long foreshock sequence. Bouchon et al. (Science, 2011) analyzed the foreshocks using a single seismic station, UCG, located to the north of the east-west fault, and concluded on the basis of waveform similarity that the foreshocks repeatedly re-ruptured the same fault patch, driven by slow slip at the base of the crust. We revisit the foreshock sequence using seismograms from 9 additional stations that recorded the four largest foreshocks (Mw 2.0 to 2.8) to better characterize spatial and temporal evolution of the foreshock sequence and their relationship to the mainshock hypocenter. Cross-correlation timing and hypocentroid location with hypoDD reveals a systematic west-to-east propagation of the four largest foreshocks toward the mainshock hypocenter. Foreshock rupture dimensions estimated using spectral ratios imply no major overlap for the first three foreshocks. The centroid of 4th and largest foreshock continues the eastward migration, but lies within the circular source area of the 3rd. The 3rd, however, has a low stress drop and strong directivity to the west . The mainshock hypocenter locates on the eastern edge of foreshock 4. We also re-analyzed waveform similarity of all 18 foreshocks recorded at UCG by removing the common mode signal and clustering the residual seismogram using the correlation coefficient as the distance metric. The smaller foreshocks cluster with the larger events in time order, sometimes as foreshocks and more commonly as aftershocks. These observations show that the Izmit foreshock sequence is consistent with a stress-transfer driven cascade, moving systematically to the east along the fault and that there is no observational requirement for creep as a driving mechanism.

  12. Linear causal modeling with structural equations

    CERN Document Server

    Mulaik, Stanley A

    2009-01-01

    Emphasizing causation as a functional relationship between variables that describe objects, Linear Causal Modeling with Structural Equations integrates a general philosophical theory of causation with structural equation modeling (SEM) that concerns the special case of linear causal relations. In addition to describing how the functional relation concept may be generalized to treat probabilistic causation, the book reviews historical treatments of causation and explores recent developments in experimental psychology on studies of the perception of causation. It looks at how to perceive causal

  13. Causal relationship: a new tool for the causal characterization of Lorentzian manifolds

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garcia-Parrado, Alfonso; Senovilla, Jose M M

    2003-01-01

    We define and study a new kind of relation between two diffeomorphic Lorentzian manifolds called a causal relation, which is any diffeomorphism characterized by mapping every causal vector of the first manifold onto a causal vector of the second. We perform a thorough study of the mathematical properties of causal relations and prove in particular that two given Lorentzian manifolds (say V and W) may be causally related only in one direction (say from V to W, but not from W to V). This leads us to the concept of causally equivalent (or isocausal in short) Lorentzian manifolds as those mutually causally related and to a definition of causal structure over a differentiable manifold as the equivalence class formed by isocausal Lorentzian metrics upon it. Isocausality is a more general concept than the conformal relationship, because we prove the remarkable result that a conformal relation φ is characterized by the fact of being a causal relation of the particular kind in which both φ and φ -1 are causal relations. Isocausal Lorentzian manifolds are mutually causally compatible, they share some important causal properties, and there are one-to-one correspondences, which are sometimes non-trivial, between several classes of their respective future (and past) objects. A more important feature is that they satisfy the same standard causality constraints. We also introduce a partial order for the equivalence classes of isocausal Lorentzian manifolds providing a classification of all the causal structures that a given fixed manifold can have. By introducing the concept of causal extension we put forward a new definition of causal boundary for Lorentzian manifolds based on the concept of isocausality, and thereby we generalize the traditional Penrose constructions of conformal infinity, diagrams and embeddings. In particular, the concept of causal diagram is given. Many explicit clarifying examples are presented throughout the paper

  14. The significance test controversy revisited the fiducial Bayesian alternative

    CERN Document Server

    Lecoutre, Bruno

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this book is not only to revisit the “significance test controversy,”but also to provide a conceptually sounder alternative. As such, it presents a Bayesian framework for a new approach to analyzing and interpreting experimental data. It also prepares students and researchers for reporting on experimental results. Normative aspects: The main views of statistical tests are revisited and the philosophies of Fisher, Neyman-Pearson and Jeffrey are discussed in detail. Descriptive aspects: The misuses of Null Hypothesis Significance Tests are reconsidered in light of Jeffreys’ Bayesian conceptions concerning the role of statistical inference in experimental investigations. Prescriptive aspects: The current effect size and confidence interval reporting practices are presented and seriously questioned. Methodological aspects are carefully discussed and fiducial Bayesian methods are proposed as a more suitable alternative for reporting on experimental results. In closing, basic routine procedures...

  15. Space-time as a causal set

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bombelli, L.; Lee, J.; Meyer, D.; Sorkin, R.D.

    1987-01-01

    We propose that space-time at the smallest scales is in reality a causal set: a locally finite set of elements endowed with a partial order corresponding to the macroscopic relation that defines past and future. We explore how a Lorentzian manifold can approximate a causal set, noting in particular that the thereby defined effective dimensionality of a given causal set can vary with length scale. Finally, we speculate briefly on the quantum dynamics of causal sets, indicating why an appropriate choice of action can reproduce general relativity in the classical limit

  16. Amodal causal capture in the tunnel effect.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bae, Gi Yeul; Flombaum, Jonathan I

    2011-01-01

    In addition to identifying individual objects in the world, the visual system must also characterize the relationships between objects, for instance when objects occlude one another or cause one another to move. Here we explored the relationship between perceived causality and occlusion. Can one perceive causality in an occluded location? In several experiments, observers judged whether a centrally presented event involved a single object passing behind an occluder, or one object causally launching another (out of view and behind the occluder). With no additional context, the centrally presented event was typically judged as a non-causal pass, even when the occluding and disoccluding objects were different colors--an illusion known as the 'tunnel effect' that results from spatiotemporal continuity. However, when a synchronized context event involved an unambiguous causal launch, participants perceived a causal launch behind the occluder. This percept of an occluded causal interaction could also be driven by grouping and synchrony cues in the absence of any explicitly causal interaction. These results reinforce the hypothesis that causality is an aspect of perception. It is among the interpretations of the world that are independently available to vision when resolving ambiguity, and that the visual system can 'fill in' amodally.

  17. Electromagnetic pulses, localized and causal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lekner, John

    2018-01-01

    We show that pulse solutions of the wave equation can be expressed as time Fourier superpositions of scalar monochromatic beam wave functions (solutions of the Helmholtz equation). This formulation is shown to be equivalent to Bateman's integral expression for solutions of the wave equation, for axially symmetric solutions. A closed-form one-parameter solution of the wave equation, containing no backward-propagating parts, is constructed from a beam which is the tight-focus limit of two families of beams. Application is made to transverse electric and transverse magnetic pulses, with evaluation of the energy, momentum and angular momentum for a pulse based on the general localized and causal form. Such pulses can be represented as superpositions of photons. Explicit total energy and total momentum values are given for the one-parameter closed-form pulse.

  18. Causal relationship between trade openness, economic growth and energy consumption: A panel data analysis of Asian countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nasreen, Samia; Anwar, Sofia

    2014-01-01

    This paper explores the causal relationship between economic growth, trade openness and energy consumption using data of 15 Asian countries. The study covers the period of 1980–2011. We have applied panel cointegration and causality approaches to examine the long-run and causal relationship between variables. Empirical results confirm the presence of cointegration between variables. The impact of economic growth and trade openness on energy consumption is found to be positive. The panel Granger causality analysis reveals the bidirectional causality between economic growth and energy consumption, trade openness and energy consumption. - Highlights: • This study analyzes causality between energy, growth and trade in the Asian region. • Empirical results supported cointegrating relationship between variables. • Positive impact of growth and trade openness on energy usage is found in the long run. • Bidirectional Granger causality is observed between selected variables in the long run

  19. Causal ubiquity in quantum physics. A superluminal and local-causal physical ontology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Neelamkavil, Raphael

    2014-01-01

    A fixed highest criterial velocity (of light) in STR (special theory of relativity) is a convention for a layer of physical inquiry. QM (Quantum Mechanics) avoids action-at-a-distance using this concept, but accepts non-causality and action-at-a-distance in EPR (Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen-Paradox) entanglement experiments. Even in such allegedly [non-causal] processes, something exists processually in extension-motion, between the causal and the [non-causal]. If STR theoretically allows real-valued superluminal communication between EPR entangled particles, quantum processes become fully causal. That is, the QM world is sub-luminally, luminally and superluminally local-causal throughout, and the Law of Causality is ubiquitous in the micro-world. Thus, ''probabilistic causality'' is a merely epistemic term.

  20. Causal ubiquity in quantum physics. A superluminal and local-causal physical ontology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Neelamkavil, Raphael

    2014-07-01

    A fixed highest criterial velocity (of light) in STR (special theory of relativity) is a convention for a layer of physical inquiry. QM (Quantum Mechanics) avoids action-at-a-distance using this concept, but accepts non-causality and action-at-a-distance in EPR (Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen-Paradox) entanglement experiments. Even in such allegedly [non-causal] processes, something exists processually in extension-motion, between the causal and the [non-causal]. If STR theoretically allows real-valued superluminal communication between EPR entangled particles, quantum processes become fully causal. That is, the QM world is sub-luminally, luminally and superluminally local-causal throughout, and the Law of Causality is ubiquitous in the micro-world. Thus, ''probabilistic causality'' is a merely epistemic term.

  1. Causality from the Cosmological Perspective in Vedanta and Western Physics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hawley, Danny Lee

    The relation between Western physics and Indian Vedanta philosophy is investigated through the topic of causality, taken in the sense of explanatory theories of the origin of the universe and the relations among its physical, mental, and spiritual aspects. Both physics and Vedanta have a common goal of explanation by means of a unitary principle. While physics has long been separated from metaphysics, its discoveries indicate that consciousness must be included in a complete explanation. Consciousness is taken as the fundamental basis and source of all phenomena in Vedanta. This work traces the developments of causal explanation in Western physics and Indian philosophy, and considers how these views may relate to each other and how they may together suggest a comprehensive view of reality. Approaches typically applied by historians of religion to the study of creation myths, especially the psychological approach which considers myths from the perspective or cyclical stages of conscious development, are applied to the causal theories of the two cultures. The question of how causal explanations attempt to bridge the gap between cause and effect, unity and multiplicity, absolute and relative, conscious and unconscious, etc., is addressed. Though the investigation begins from the earliest causal explanations, viz., creation myths, emphasis is placed upon Samkara's commentaries of Advaita Vedanta, examined in the original Sanskrit, and upon the convergence of modern field theory, astrophysics, and cosmology, seen from the perspective of a previous doctorate in physics. Consideration is given to the comparison between physics and Vedanta as to goals, methods, and domains, to the question of the incompleteness of physics and the extent to which it nevertheless points beyond itself, to the possibility of a synthetic view and how it might be effected, and to analogies and metaphors through which physics and Vedanta may illuminate each other. An intuitive picture is

  2. A Theory of Causal Learning in Children: Causal Maps and Bayes Nets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gopnik, Alison; Glymour, Clark; Sobel, David M.; Schulz, Laura E.; Kushnir, Tamar; Danks, David

    2004-01-01

    The authors outline a cognitive and computational account of causal learning in children. They propose that children use specialized cognitive systems that allow them to recover an accurate "causal map" of the world: an abstract, coherent, learned representation of the causal relations among events. This kind of knowledge can be perspicuously…

  3. Further properties of causal relationship: causal structure stability, new criteria for isocausality and counterexamples

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garcia-Parrado, Alfonso; Sanchez, Miguel

    2005-01-01

    Recently (Garcia-Parrado and Senovilla 2003 Class. Quantum Grav. 20 625-64) the concept of causal mapping between spacetimes, essentially equivalent in this context to the chronological map defined in abstract chronological spaces, and the related notion of causal structure, have been introduced as new tools to study causality in Lorentzian geometry. In the present paper, these tools are further developed in several directions such as (i) causal mappings-and, thus, abstract chronological ones-do not preserve two levels of the standard hierarchy of causality conditions (however, they preserve the remaining levels as shown in the above reference), (ii) even though global hyperbolicity is a stable property (in the set of all time-oriented Lorentzian metrics on a fixed manifold), the causal structure of a globally hyperbolic spacetime can be unstable against perturbations; in fact, we show that the causal structures of Minkowski and Einstein static spacetimes remain stable, whereas that of de Sitter becomes unstable, (iii) general criteria allow us to discriminate different causal structures in some general spacetimes (e.g. globally hyperbolic, stationary standard); in particular, there are infinitely many different globally hyperbolic causal structures (and thus, different conformal ones) on R 2 (iv) plane waves with the same number of positive eigenvalues in the frequency matrix share the same causal structure and, thus, they have equal causal extensions and causal boundaries

  4. Applying causal mediation analysis to personality disorder research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walters, Glenn D

    2018-01-01

    This article is designed to address fundamental issues in the application of causal mediation analysis to research on personality disorders. Causal mediation analysis is used to identify mechanisms of effect by testing variables as putative links between the independent and dependent variables. As such, it would appear to have relevance to personality disorder research. It is argued that proper implementation of causal mediation analysis requires that investigators take several factors into account. These factors are discussed under 5 headings: variable selection, model specification, significance evaluation, effect size estimation, and sensitivity testing. First, care must be taken when selecting the independent, dependent, mediator, and control variables for a mediation analysis. Some variables make better mediators than others and all variables should be based on reasonably reliable indicators. Second, the mediation model needs to be properly specified. This requires that the data for the analysis be prospectively or historically ordered and possess proper causal direction. Third, it is imperative that the significance of the identified pathways be established, preferably with a nonparametric bootstrap resampling approach. Fourth, effect size estimates should be computed or competing pathways compared. Finally, investigators employing the mediation method are advised to perform a sensitivity analysis. Additional topics covered in this article include parallel and serial multiple mediation designs, moderation, and the relationship between mediation and moderation. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

  5. Computation of Probabilities in Causal Models of History of Science

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Osvaldo Pessoa Jr.

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available : The aim of this paper is to investigate the ascription of probabilities in a causal model of an episode in the history of science. The aim of such a quantitative approach is to allow the implementation of the causal model in a computer, to run simulations. As an example, we look at the beginning of the science of magnetism, “explaining” — in a probabilistic way, in terms of a single causal model — why the field advanced in China but not in Europe (the difference is due to different prior probabilities of certain cultural manifestations. Given the number of years between the occurrences of two causally connected advances X and Y, one proposes a criterion for stipulating the value pY=X of the conditional probability of an advance Y occurring, given X. Next, one must assume a specific form for the cumulative probability function pY=X(t, which we take to be the time integral of an exponential distribution function, as is done in physics of radioactive decay. Rules for calculating the cumulative functions for more than two events are mentioned, involving composition, disjunction and conjunction of causes. We also consider the problems involved in supposing that the appearance of events in time follows an exponential distribution, which are a consequence of the fact that a composition of causes does not follow an exponential distribution, but a “hypoexponential” one. We suggest that a gamma distribution function might more adequately represent the appearance of advances.

  6. The continuum limit of causal fermion systems from Planck scale structures to macroscopic physics

    CERN Document Server

    Finster, Felix

    2016-01-01

    This monograph introduces the basic concepts of the theory of causal fermion systems, a recent approach to the description of fundamental physics. The theory yields quantum mechanics, general relativity and quantum field theory as limiting cases and is therefore a candidate for a unified physical theory. From the mathematical perspective, causal fermion systems provide a general framework for describing and analyzing non-smooth geometries and "quantum geometries". The dynamics is described by a novel variational principle, called the causal action principle. In addition to the basics, the book provides all the necessary mathematical background and explains how the causal action principle gives rise to the interactions of the standard model plus gravity on the level of second-quantized fermionic fields coupled to classical bosonic fields. The focus is on getting a mathematically sound connection between causal fermion systems and physical systems in Minkowski space. The book is intended for graduate students e...

  7. ANALISIS KETERKAITAN KETERSEDIAAN INFRASTRUKTUR DENGAN PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DI INDONESIA: PENDEKATAN ANALISIS GRANGER CAUSALITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lesta Karolina B Sembanyang

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The aims of this study are to analyze the causal relationship of public service provision (infrastructure, economic growth and tax inIndonesiaand to formulate the policy implications of causal link and infrastructure inIndonesia’s economic growth. The data used was time series data, from 1987 up to 2009. They were from many sources such as Government Expenditure (APBN, Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS and the International Financial Statistics (IFS. The method used is a causal analysis approach or the Granger causality. The findings of this study is that there is a direct relationship between GDP to infrastructure and the GDP to tax revenue. The conclusions of this study are Gross Domestic Product (GDP can lead the availability of infrastructure (for example road length in Indonesia,there is a causal connection between the economic growth and the tax revenue in Indonesia, andthe increased tax revenue will increase the availability of infrastructure, especially road.

  8. Causal Mediation Analysis: Warning! Assumptions Ahead

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keele, Luke

    2015-01-01

    In policy evaluations, interest may focus on why a particular treatment works. One tool for understanding why treatments work is causal mediation analysis. In this essay, I focus on the assumptions needed to estimate mediation effects. I show that there is no "gold standard" method for the identification of causal mediation effects. In…

  9. A Causal Model of Faculty Research Productivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bean, John P.

    A causal model of faculty research productivity was developed through a survey of the literature. Models of organizational behavior, organizational effectiveness, and motivation were synthesized into a causal model of productivity. Two general types of variables were assumed to affect individual research productivity: institutional variables and…

  10. Causal Indicators Can Help to Interpret Factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bentler, Peter M.

    2016-01-01

    The latent factor in a causal indicator model is no more than the latent factor of the factor part of the model. However, if the causal indicator variables are well-understood and help to improve the prediction of individuals' factor scores, they can help to interpret the meaning of the latent factor. Aguirre-Urreta, Rönkkö, and Marakas (2016)…

  11. Quasi-Experimental Designs for Causal Inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Yongnam; Steiner, Peter

    2016-01-01

    When randomized experiments are infeasible, quasi-experimental designs can be exploited to evaluate causal treatment effects. The strongest quasi-experimental designs for causal inference are regression discontinuity designs, instrumental variable designs, matching and propensity score designs, and comparative interrupted time series designs. This…

  12. Determining Directional Dependency in Causal Associations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pornprasertmanit, Sunthud; Little, Todd D.

    2012-01-01

    Directional dependency is a method to determine the likely causal direction of effect between two variables. This article aims to critique and improve upon the use of directional dependency as a technique to infer causal associations. We comment on several issues raised by von Eye and DeShon (2012), including: encouraging the use of the signs of…

  13. Social Life Cycle Assessment Revisited

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruqun Wu

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available To promote the development of Social Life Cycle Assessment (SLCA, we conducted a comprehensive review of recently developed frameworks, methods, and characterization models for impact assessment for future method developers and SLCA practitioners. Two previous reviews served as our foundations for this review. We updated the review by including a comprehensive list of recently-developed SLCA frameworks, methods and characterization models. While a brief discussion from goal, data, and indicator perspectives is provided in Sections 2 to 4 for different frameworks/methods, the focus of this review is Section 5 where discussion on characterization models for impact assessment of different methods is provided. The characterization models are categorized into two types following the UNEP/SETAC guidelines: type I models without impact pathways and type II models with impact pathways. Different from methods incorporating type I/II characterization models, another LCA modeling approach, Life Cycle Attribute Assessment (LCAA, is also discussed in this review. We concluded that methods incorporating either type I or type II models have limitations. For type I models, the challenge lies in the systematic identification of relevant stakeholders and materiality issues; while for type II models, identification of impact pathways that most closely and accurately represent the real-world causal relationships is the key. LCAA may avoid these problems, but the ultimate questions differ from those asked by the methods using type I and II models.

  14. Untangling the causal relationship between tax burden distribution and economic growth in 23 OECD countries: Fresh evidence from linear and non-linear Granger causality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sami Saafi

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the paper is to investigate the linear and nonlinear causality between a set of alternative tax burden ratios and economic growth in 23 OECD countries. To that end, the linear causality approach of Toda– Yamamoto (1995 and the nonparametric causality method of Kyrtsou and Labys (2006 are applied to annual data spanning from 1970 to 2014. Results obtained from the nonlinear causality test tend to reject the neutrality hypothesis for the tax structure–growth relationship in 19 of the 23 OECD countries. In the majority of the countries under investigation, the evidence is in line with the growth hypothesis where causality running from economic growth to tax burden ratios was detected in Australia, Denmark, Finland, Japan, New Zealand, and Norway. The opposite causality running from tax structure to economic growth was found in Germany, Netherlands, Portugal, and Sweden. In contrast, the neutrality hypothesis was supported in Austria, Italy, Luxembourg, and the USA, whereas the feedback hypothesis was supported in Turkey and the UK. Additional robustness checks show that when the signs of variations are taken into account, there is an asymmetric causality running from positive tax burden shocks to positive per capita GDP shocks for Belgium, France, and Turkey. Overall, our findings suggest that policy implications of the tax structure-economic growth relationships should be interpreted with caution, taking into account the test-dependent and country-specific results.

  15. Heterogeneous Causal Effects and Sample Selection Bias

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Breen, Richard; Choi, Seongsoo; Holm, Anders

    2015-01-01

    The role of education in the process of socioeconomic attainment is a topic of long standing interest to sociologists and economists. Recently there has been growing interest not only in estimating the average causal effect of education on outcomes such as earnings, but also in estimating how...... causal effects might vary over individuals or groups. In this paper we point out one of the under-appreciated hazards of seeking to estimate heterogeneous causal effects: conventional selection bias (that is, selection on baseline differences) can easily be mistaken for heterogeneity of causal effects....... This might lead us to find heterogeneous effects when the true effect is homogenous, or to wrongly estimate not only the magnitude but also the sign of heterogeneous effects. We apply a test for the robustness of heterogeneous causal effects in the face of varying degrees and patterns of selection bias...

  16. Causality, spin, and equal-time commutators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abdel-Rahman, A.M.

    1975-01-01

    We study the causality constraints on the structure of the Lorentz-antisymmetric component of the commutator of two conserved isovector currents between fermion states of equal momenta. We discuss the sum rules that follow from causality and scaling, using the recently introduced refined infinite-momentum technique. The complete set of sum rules is found to include the spin-dependent fixed-mass sum rules obtained from light-cone commutators. The causality and scaling restrictions on the structure of the electromagnetic equal-time commutators are discussed, and it is found, in particular, that causality requires the spin-dependent part of the matrix element for the time-space electromagnetic equal-time commutator to vanish identically. It is also shown, in comparison with the electromagnetic case, that the corresponding matrix element for the time-space isovector current equal-time commutator is required, by causality, to have isospin-antisymmetric tensor and scalar operator Schwinger terms

  17. Classical stochastic approach to cosmology revisited

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    theory the mean values of both p and w are taken to be nonzero. ... This PDF arises from the point-to-point variance of the Hubble flow. ..... [8] T Padmanabhan, To appear in the proceedings of XIII Rencontres de Blois-Frontiers of the universe ...

  18. Revisiting Mutual Fund Performance Evaluation

    OpenAIRE

    Angelidis, Timotheos; Giamouridis, Daniel; Tessaromatis, Nikolaos

    2012-01-01

    Mutual fund manager excess performance should be measured relative to their self-reported benchmark rather than the return of a passive portfolio with the same risk characteristics. Ignoring the self-reported benchmark introduces biases in the measurement of stock selection and timing components of excess performance. We revisit baseline empirical evidence in mutual fund performance evaluation utilizing stock selection and timing measures that address these biases. We introduce a new factor e...

  19. Speeding Up Maximal Causality Reduction with Static Dependency Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Huang, Shiyou; Huang, Jeff

    2017-01-01

    Stateless Model Checking (SMC) offers a powerful approach to verifying multithreaded programs but suffers from the state-space explosion problem caused by the huge thread interleaving space. The pioneering reduction technique Partial Order Reduction (POR) mitigates this problem by pruning equivalent interleavings from the state space. However, limited by the happens-before relation, POR still explores redundant executions. The recent advance, Maximal Causality Reduction (MCR), shows a promisi...

  20. Female Labor Supply and Fertility. Causal Evidence for Latin America

    OpenAIRE

    Darío Tortarolo

    2014-01-01

    In this paper I study the causal relationship between fertility and female labor supply using census data from 14 Latin American countries and the U.S. over the span of three decades (1980, 1990 and 2000). Parental preferences for a gender-balanced family (mixed-sex children) is exploited as a source of exogenous variation in fertility. Although OLS estimates suggest a statistically signi cant negative relationship in the 39 censuses used, instrumental variables approach fails to identify a c...

  1. Causal mediation analysis for longitudinal data with exogenous exposure

    OpenAIRE

    Bind, M.-A. C.; Vanderweele, T. J.; Coull, B. A.; Schwartz, J. D.

    2015-01-01

    Mediation analysis is a valuable approach to examine pathways in epidemiological research. Prospective cohort studies are often conducted to study biological mechanisms and often collect longitudinal measurements on each participant. Mediation formulae for longitudinal data have been developed. Here, we formalize the natural direct and indirect effects using a causal framework with potential outcomes that allows for an interaction between the exposure and the mediator. To allow different type...

  2. Causal ubiquity in quantum physics a superluminal and local-causal physical ontology

    CERN Document Server

    Neelamkavil, Raphael

    2014-01-01

    A fixed highest criterial velocity (of light) in STR (special theory of relativity) is a convention for a layer of physical inquiry. QM (Quantum Mechanics) avoids action-at-a-distance using this concept, but accepts non-causality and action-at-a-distance in EPR (Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen-Paradox) entanglement experiments. Even in such allegedly non-causal processes, something exists processually in extension-motion, between the causal and the non-causal. If STR theoretically allows real-valued superluminal communication between EPR entangled particles, quantum processes become fully causal. That

  3. Causal reasoning and models of cognitive tasks for naval nuclear power plant operators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salazar-Ferrer, P.

    1995-06-01

    In complex industrial process control, causal reasoning appears as a major component in operators' cognitive tasks. It is tightly linked to diagnosis, prediction of normal and failure states, and explanation. This work provides a detailed review of literature in causal reasoning. A synthesis is proposed as a model of causal reasoning in process control. This model integrates distinct approaches in Cognitive Science: especially qualitative physics, Bayesian networks, knowledge-based systems, and cognitive psychology. Our model defines a framework for the analysis of causal human errors in simulated naval nuclear power plant fault management. Through the methodological framework of critical incident analysis we define a classification of errors and difficulties linked to causal reasoning. This classification is based on shallow characteristics of causal reasoning. As an origin of these errors, more elementary component activities in causal reasoning are identified. The applications cover the field of functional specification for man-machine interfaces, operators support systems design as well as nuclear safety. In addition of this study, we integrate the model of causal reasoning in a model of cognitive task in process control. (authors). 106 refs., 49 figs., 8 tabs

  4. Causality violations in Lovelock theories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brustein, Ram; Sherf, Yotam

    2018-04-01

    Higher-derivative gravity theories, such as Lovelock theories, generalize Einstein's general relativity (GR). Modifications to GR are expected when curvatures are near Planckian and appear in string theory or supergravity. But can such theories describe gravity on length scales much larger than the Planck cutoff length scale? Here we find causality constraints on Lovelock theories that arise from the requirement that the equations of motion (EOM) of perturbations be hyperbolic. We find a general expression for the "effective metric" in field space when Lovelock theories are perturbed around some symmetric background solution. In particular, we calculate explicitly the effective metric for a general Lovelock theory perturbed around cosmological Friedman-Robertson-Walker backgrounds and for some specific cases when perturbed around Schwarzschild-like solutions. For the EOM to be hyperbolic, the effective metric needs to be Lorentzian. We find that, unlike for GR, the effective metric is generically not Lorentzian when the Lovelock modifications are significant. So, we conclude that Lovelock theories can only be considered as perturbative extensions of GR and not as truly modified theories of gravity. We compare our results to those in the literature and find that they agree with and reproduce the results of previous studies.

  5. Causal models in epidemiology: past inheritance and genetic future

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kriebel David

    2006-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The eruption of genetic research presents a tremendous opportunity to epidemiologists to improve our ability to identify causes of ill health. Epidemiologists have enthusiastically embraced the new tools of genomics and proteomics to investigate gene-environment interactions. We argue that neither the full import nor limitations of such studies can be appreciated without clarifying underlying theoretical models of interaction, etiologic fraction, and the fundamental concept of causality. We therefore explore different models of causality in the epidemiology of disease arising out of genes, environments, and the interplay between environments and genes. We begin from Rothman's "pie" model of necessary and sufficient causes, and then discuss newer approaches, which provide additional insights into multifactorial causal processes. These include directed acyclic graphs and structural equation models. Caution is urged in the application of two essential and closely related concepts found in many studies: interaction (effect modification and the etiologic or attributable fraction. We review these concepts and present four important limitations. 1. Interaction is a fundamental characteristic of any causal process involving a series of probabilistic steps, and not a second-order phenomenon identified after first accounting for "main effects". 2. Standard methods of assessing interaction do not adequately consider the life course, and the temporal dynamics through which an individual's sufficient cause is completed. Different individuals may be at different stages of development along the path to disease, but this is not usually measurable. Thus, for example, acquired susceptibility in children can be an important source of variation. 3. A distinction must be made between individual-based and population-level models. Most epidemiologic discussions of causality fail to make this distinction. 4. At the population level, there is additional

  6. Confounding effects of phase delays on causality estimation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vasily A Vakorin

    Full Text Available Linear and non-linear techniques for inferring causal relations between the brain signals representing the underlying neuronal systems have become a powerful tool to extract the connectivity patterns in the brain. Typically these tools employ the idea of Granger causality, which is ultimately based on the temporal precedence between the signals. At the same time, phase synchronization between coupled neural ensembles is considered a mechanism implemented in the brain to integrate relevant neuronal ensembles to perform a cognitive or perceptual task. Phase synchronization can be studied by analyzing the effects of phase-locking between the brain signals. However, we should expect that there is no one-to-one mapping between the observed phase lag and the time precedence as specified by physically interacting systems. Specifically, phase lag observed between two signals may interfere with inferring causal relations. This could be of critical importance for the coupled non-linear oscillating systems, with possible time delays in coupling, when classical linear cross-spectrum strategies for solving phase ambiguity are not efficient. To demonstrate this, we used a prototypical model of coupled non-linear systems, and compared three typical pipelines of inferring Granger causality, as established in the literature. Specifically, we compared the performance of the spectral and information-theoretic Granger pipelines as well as standard Granger causality in their relations to the observed phase differences for frequencies at which the signals become synchronized to each other. We found that an information-theoretic approach, which takes into account different time lags between the past of one signal and the future of another signal, was the most robust to phase effects.

  7. Causal localizations in relativistic quantum mechanics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castrigiano, Domenico P. L.; Leiseifer, Andreas D.

    2015-07-01

    Causal localizations describe the position of quantum systems moving not faster than light. They are constructed for the systems with finite spinor dimension. At the center of interest are the massive relativistic systems. For every positive mass, there is the sequence of Dirac tensor-localizations, which provides a complete set of inequivalent irreducible causal localizations. They obey the principle of special relativity and are fully Poincaré covariant. The boosters are determined by the causal position operator and the other Poincaré generators. The localization with minimal spinor dimension is the Dirac localization. Thus, the Dirac equation is derived here as a mere consequence of the principle of causality. Moreover, the higher tensor-localizations, not known so far, follow from Dirac's localization by a simple construction. The probability of localization for positive energy states results to be described by causal positive operator valued (PO-) localizations, which are the traces of the causal localizations on the subspaces of positive energy. These causal Poincaré covariant PO-localizations for every irreducible massive relativistic system were, all the more, not known before. They are shown to be separated. Hence, the positive energy systems can be localized within every open region by a suitable preparation as accurately as desired. Finally, the attempt is made to provide an interpretation of the PO-localization operators within the frame of conventional quantum mechanics attributing an important role to the negative energy states.

  8. Causal inference, probability theory, and graphical insights.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Stuart G

    2013-11-10

    Causal inference from observational studies is a fundamental topic in biostatistics. The causal graph literature typically views probability theory as insufficient to express causal concepts in observational studies. In contrast, the view here is that probability theory is a desirable and sufficient basis for many topics in causal inference for the following two reasons. First, probability theory is generally more flexible than causal graphs: Besides explaining such causal graph topics as M-bias (adjusting for a collider) and bias amplification and attenuation (when adjusting for instrumental variable), probability theory is also the foundation of the paired availability design for historical controls, which does not fit into a causal graph framework. Second, probability theory is the basis for insightful graphical displays including the BK-Plot for understanding Simpson's paradox with a binary confounder, the BK2-Plot for understanding bias amplification and attenuation in the presence of an unobserved binary confounder, and the PAD-Plot for understanding the principal stratification component of the paired availability design. Published 2013. This article is a US Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

  9. SAID/SAPS Revisited: A Causal Relation to the Substorm Current Wedge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mishin, E. V.

    2017-12-01

    We present multi-spacecraft observations of enhanced flow/electric field channels in the inner magnetosphere and conjugate subauroral ionosphere, i.e., subauroral polarization streams (SAPS) near dusk and subauroral ion drifts (SAID) near midnight. The channels collocate with ring current (RC) injections lagging the onset of substorms by a few to ˜20 minutes, i.e., significantly shorter than the gradient-curvature drift time of tens of keV ions. The time lag is of the order of the propagation time of reconnection-injected hot plasma jets to the premidnight plasmasphere and the substorm current wedge (SCW) to dusk. The observations confirm and expand on the previous results on the SAID features that negate the paradigm of voltage and current generators. Fast-time duskside SAPS/RC injections appear intimately related to a two-loop circuit of the substorm current wedge (SCW2L). We suggest that the poleward electric field inherent in the SCW2L circuit, which demands closure of the Region 1- and Region 2-sense field-aligned currents via meridional currents, is the ultimate cause of fast RC injections and SAPS on the duskside.

  10. Meta-analysis in clinical trials revisited.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DerSimonian, Rebecca; Laird, Nan

    2015-11-01

    In this paper, we revisit a 1986 article we published in this Journal, Meta-Analysis in Clinical Trials, where we introduced a random-effects model to summarize the evidence about treatment efficacy from a number of related clinical trials. Because of its simplicity and ease of implementation, our approach has been widely used (with more than 12,000 citations to date) and the "DerSimonian and Laird method" is now often referred to as the 'standard approach' or a 'popular' method for meta-analysis in medical and clinical research. The method is especially useful for providing an overall effect estimate and for characterizing the heterogeneity of effects across a series of studies. Here, we review the background that led to the original 1986 article, briefly describe the random-effects approach for meta-analysis, explore its use in various settings and trends over time and recommend a refinement to the method using a robust variance estimator for testing overall effect. We conclude with a discussion of repurposing the method for Big Data meta-analysis and Genome Wide Association Studies for studying the importance of genetic variants in complex diseases. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  11. Pipe failure probability - the Thomas paper revisited

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lydell, B.O.Y.

    2000-01-01

    Almost twenty years ago, in Volume 2 of Reliability Engineering (the predecessor of Reliability Engineering and System Safety), a paper by H. M. Thomas of Rolls Royce and Associates Ltd. presented a generalized approach to the estimation of piping and vessel failure probability. The 'Thomas-approach' used insights from actual failure statistics to calculate the probability of leakage and conditional probability of rupture given leakage. It was intended for practitioners without access to data on the service experience with piping and piping system components. This article revisits the Thomas paper by drawing on insights from development of a new database on piping failures in commercial nuclear power plants worldwide (SKI-PIPE). Partially sponsored by the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate (SKI), the R and D leading up to this note was performed during 1994-1999. Motivated by data requirements of reliability analysis and probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), the new database supports statistical analysis of piping failure data. Against the background of this database development program, the article reviews the applicability of the 'Thomas approach' in applied risk and reliability analysis. It addresses the question whether a new and expanded database on the service experience with piping systems would alter the original piping reliability correlation as suggested by H. M. Thomas

  12. Dual Causality and the Autonomy of Biology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bock, Walter J

    2017-03-01

    Ernst Mayr's concept of dual causality in biology with the two forms of causes (proximate and ultimate) continues to provide an essential foundation for the philosophy of biology. They are equivalent to functional (=proximate) and evolutionary (=ultimate) causes with both required for full biological explanations. The natural sciences can be classified into nomological, historical nomological and historical dual causality, the last including only biology. Because evolutionary causality is unique to biology and must be included for all complete biological explanations, biology is autonomous from the physical sciences.

  13. Mathematical implications of Einstein-Weyl causality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Borchers, H.J.; Sen, R.N.

    2006-01-01

    The present work is the first systematic attempt at answering the following fundamental question: what mathematical structures does Einstein-Weyl causality impose on a point-set that has no other previous structure defined on it? The authors propose an axiomatization of Einstein-Weyl causality (inspired by physics), and investigate the topological and uniform structures that it implies. Their final result is that a causal space is densely embedded in one that is locally a differentiable manifold. The mathematical level required of the reader is that of the graduate student in mathematical physics. (orig.)

  14. Automated HAZOP revisited

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Taylor, J. R.

    2017-01-01

    Hazard and operability analysis (HAZOP) has developed from a tentative approach to hazard identification for process plants in the early 1970s to an almost universally accepted approach today, and a central technique of safety engineering. Techniques for automated HAZOP analysis were developed...

  15. The Border Pedagogy Revisited

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kazanjian, Christopher John

    2011-01-01

    Border pedagogy is a multicultural educational approach utilized in multicultural settings to help students understand their histories and experiences and how it affects their identities and cultures. The approach seeks to produce intellectuals that transcend physical and metaphysical boundaries. The goal of border pedagogy is to remove cultural…

  16. Revisiting the Metaphor of the Island: Challenging "World Culture" from an Island Misunderstood

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rappleye, Jeremy

    2015-01-01

    This article revisits the newly "discovered" island that world culture theorists have repeatedly utilised to explain their theoretical stance, conceptual preferences and methodological approach. Yet, it seeks to (re)connect world culture with the real world by replacing their imagined atoll with a real one--the island-nation of Japan. In…

  17. Reconstructing Causal Biological Networks through Active Learning.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hyunghoon Cho

    Full Text Available Reverse-engineering of biological networks is a central problem in systems biology. The use of intervention data, such as gene knockouts or knockdowns, is typically used for teasing apart causal relationships among genes. Under time or resource constraints, one needs to carefully choose which intervention experiments to carry out. Previous approaches for selecting most informative interventions have largely been focused on discrete Bayesian networks. However, continuous Bayesian networks are of great practical interest, especially in the study of complex biological systems and their quantitative properties. In this work, we present an efficient, information-theoretic active learning algorithm for Gaussian Bayesian networks (GBNs, which serve as important models for gene regulatory networks. In addition to providing linear-algebraic insights unique to GBNs, leading to significant runtime improvements, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our method on data simulated with GBNs and the DREAM4 network inference challenge data sets. Our method generally leads to faster recovery of underlying network structure and faster convergence to final distribution of confidence scores over candidate graph structures using the full data, in comparison to random selection of intervention experiments.

  18. From causal dynamical triangulations to astronomical observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mielczarek, Jakub

    2017-09-01

    This letter discusses phenomenological aspects of dimensional reduction predicted by the Causal Dynamical Triangulations (CDT) approach to quantum gravity. The deformed form of the dispersion relation for the fields defined on the CDT space-time is reconstructed. Using the Fermi satellite observations of the GRB 090510 source we find that the energy scale of the dimensional reduction is E* > 0.7 \\sqrt{4-d\\text{UV}} \\cdot 1010 \\text{GeV} at (95% CL), where d\\text{UV} is the value of the spectral dimension in the UV limit. By applying the deformed dispersion relation to the cosmological perturbations it is shown that, for a scenario when the primordial perturbations are formed in the UV region, the scalar power spectrum PS \\propto kn_S-1 , where n_S-1≈ \\frac{3 r (d\\text{UV}-2)}{(d\\text{UV}-1)r-48} . Here, r is the tensor-to-scalar ratio. We find that within the considered model, the predicted from CDT deviation from the scale invariance (n_S=1) is in contradiction with the up to date Planck and BICEP2.

  19. Dynamic Causal Models and Autopoietic Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    OLIVIER DAVID

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Dynamic Causal Modelling (DCM and the theory of autopoietic systems are two important conceptual frameworks. In this review, we suggest that they can be combined to answer important questions about self-organising systems like the brain. DCM has been developed recently by the neuroimaging community to explain, using biophysical models, the non-invasive brain imaging data are caused by neural processes. It allows one to ask mechanistic questions about the implementation of cerebral processes. In DCM the parameters of biophysical models are estimated from measured data and the evidence for each model is evaluated. This enables one to test different functional hypotheses (i.e., models for a given data set. Autopoiesis and related formal theories of biological systems as autonomous machines represent a body of concepts with many successful applications. However, autopoiesis has remained largely theoretical and has not penetrated the empiricism of cognitive neuroscience. In this review, we try to show the connections that exist between DCM and autopoiesis. In particular, we propose a simple modification to standard formulations of DCM that includes autonomous processes. The idea is to exploit the machinery of the system identification of DCMs in neuroimaging to test the face validity of the autopoietic theory applied to neural subsystems. We illustrate the theoretical concepts and their implications for interpreting electroencephalographic signals acquired during amygdala stimulation in an epileptic patient. The results suggest that DCM represents a relevant biophysical approach to brain functional organisation, with a potential that is yet to be fully evaluated

  20. Dilepton production in schematic causal viscous hydrodynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Song, Taesoo; Han, Kyong Chol; Ko, Che Ming

    2011-01-01

    Assuming that in the hot dense matter produced in relativistic heavy-ion collisions, the energy density, entropy density, and pressure as well as the azimuthal and space-time rapidity components of the shear tensor are uniform in the direction transversal to the reaction plane, we derive a set of schematic equations from the Isreal-Stewart causal viscous hydrodynamics. These equations are then used to describe the evolution dynamics of relativistic heavy-ion collisions by taking the shear viscosity to entropy density ratio of 1/4π for the initial quark-gluon plasma (QGP) phase and of 10 times this value for the later hadron-gas (HG) phase. Using the production rate evaluated with particle distributions that take into account the viscous effect, we study dilepton production in central heavy-ion collisions. Compared with results from the ideal hydrodynamics, we find that although the dilepton invariant mass spectra from the two approaches are similar, the transverse momentum spectra are significantly enhanced at high transverse momenta by the viscous effect. We also study the transverse momentum dependence of dileptons produced from QGP for a fixed transverse mass, which is essentially absent in the ideal hydrodynamics, and find that this so-called transverse mass scaling is violated in the viscous hydrodynamics, particularly at high transverse momenta.

  1. Computer-Aided Experiment Planning toward Causal Discovery in Neuroscience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matiasz, Nicholas J; Wood, Justin; Wang, Wei; Silva, Alcino J; Hsu, William

    2017-01-01

    Computers help neuroscientists to analyze experimental results by automating the application of statistics; however, computer-aided experiment planning is far less common, due to a lack of similar quantitative formalisms for systematically assessing evidence and uncertainty. While ontologies and other Semantic Web resources help neuroscientists to assimilate required domain knowledge, experiment planning requires not only ontological but also epistemological (e.g., methodological) information regarding how knowledge was obtained. Here, we outline how epistemological principles and graphical representations of causality can be used to formalize experiment planning toward causal discovery. We outline two complementary approaches to experiment planning: one that quantifies evidence per the principles of convergence and consistency, and another that quantifies uncertainty using logical representations of constraints on causal structure. These approaches operationalize experiment planning as the search for an experiment that either maximizes evidence or minimizes uncertainty. Despite work in laboratory automation, humans must still plan experiments and will likely continue to do so for some time. There is thus a great need for experiment-planning frameworks that are not only amenable to machine computation but also useful as aids in human reasoning.

  2. The role of causal maps in intellectual capital measurement and management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Montemari, Marco; Nielsen, Christian

    2013-01-01

    Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the measurement and the management of the dynamic aspects of intellectual capital through the use of causal mapping. Design/methodology/approach – The study details the methods utilized in a single in-depth case study of a network-based business...... of the lag and the persistence of the effects of managerial actions. In addition, it can signal when and how to refine and update the causal map. The combination of these factors supports the dynamic measurement and management of intellectual capital. Research limitations/implications – The paper presented...... the causal mapping approach into practice. Practical implications – The paper highlights the need to build causal maps to enhance the measurement and management of intellectual capital, which is dynamic of nature. As a consequence, this tool can be useful for companies to monitor their intangibles...

  3. Altered cortical causality after remifentanil administration in healthy volunteers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Khodayari-Rostamabad, Ahmad; Graversen, Carina; Olesen, Soren S

    2014-01-01

    and after infusion of remifentanil and placebo. Additionally, to assess cognitive function and analgesic effect, continuous reaction time (CRT) and bone pressure and heat pain were assessed, respectively. The causality information was extracted from the EEG by phase slope index (PSI). Among the features...... being reproducible between the two baseline recordings, several PSI features were altered by remifentanil administration in comparison to placebo. Furthermore, several of the PSI features altered by remifentanil were correlated to changes in both CRT and pain scores. The results indicate...... that remifentanil administration influence the information flow between several brain areas. Hence, the EEG causality approach offers the potential to assist in deciphering the cortical effects of remifentanil administration....

  4. Assessing students' beliefs, emotions and causal attribution ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Keywords: academic emotion; belief; causal attribution; statistical validation; students' conceptions of learning ... Sadi & Lee, 2015), through their effect on motivation and learning strategies .... to understand why they may or may not be doing.

  5. Granger Causality Testing with Intensive Longitudinal Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molenaar, Peter C M

    2018-06-01

    The availability of intensive longitudinal data obtained by means of ambulatory assessment opens up new prospects for prevention research in that it allows the derivation of subject-specific dynamic networks of interacting variables by means of vector autoregressive (VAR) modeling. The dynamic networks thus obtained can be subjected to Granger causality testing in order to identify causal relations among the observed time-dependent variables. VARs have two equivalent representations: standard and structural. Results obtained with Granger causality testing depend upon which representation is chosen, yet no criteria exist on which this important choice can be based. A new equivalent representation is introduced called hybrid VARs with which the best representation can be chosen in a data-driven way. Partial directed coherence, a frequency-domain statistic for Granger causality testing, is shown to perform optimally when based on hybrid VARs. An application to real data is provided.

  6. Causality Between Urban Concentration and Environmental Quality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amin Pujiati

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Population is concentrated in urban areas can cause the external diseconomies on environment if it exceeds the carrying capacity of the space and the urban economy. Otherwise the quality of the environment is getting better, led to the concentration of population in urban areas are increasingly high. This study aims to analyze the relationship of causality between the urban concentration and environmental quality in urban agglomeration areas. The data used in the study of secondary data obtained from the Central Bureau of statistics and the City Government from 2000 to 2013. The analytical method used is the Granger causality and descriptive. Granger causality study results showed no pattern of reciprocal causality, between urban concentration and the quality of the environment, but there unidirectional relationship between the urban concentration and environmental quality. This means that increasing urban concentration led to decreased environmental quality.

  7. Selecting appropriate cases when tracing causal mechanisms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Beach, Derek; Pedersen, Rasmus Brun

    2016-01-01

    The last decade has witnessed resurgence in the interest in studying the causal mechanisms linking causes and outcomes in the social sciences. This article explores the overlooked implications for case selection when tracing mechanisms using in-depth case studies. Our argument is that existing case...... selection guidelines are appropriate for research aimed at making cross-case claims about causal relationships, where case selection is primarily used to control for other causes. However, existing guidelines are not in alignment with case-based research that aims to trace mechanisms, where the goal...... is to unpack the causal mechanism between X and Y, enabling causal inferences to be made because empirical evidence is provided for how the mechanism actually operated in a particular case. The in-depth, within-case tracing of how mechanisms operate in particular cases produces what can be termed mechanistic...

  8. Rate-Agnostic (Causal) Structure Learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plis, Sergey; Danks, David; Freeman, Cynthia; Calhoun, Vince

    2015-12-01

    Causal structure learning from time series data is a major scientific challenge. Extant algorithms assume that measurements occur sufficiently quickly; more precisely, they assume approximately equal system and measurement timescales. In many domains, however, measurements occur at a significantly slower rate than the underlying system changes, but the size of the timescale mismatch is often unknown. This paper develops three causal structure learning algorithms, each of which discovers all dynamic causal graphs that explain the observed measurement data, perhaps given undersampling. That is, these algorithms all learn causal structure in a "rate-agnostic" manner: they do not assume any particular relation between the measurement and system timescales. We apply these algorithms to data from simulations to gain insight into the challenge of undersampling.

  9. K-causality and degenerate spacetimes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dowker, H. F.; Garcia, R. S.; Surya, S.

    2000-11-01

    The causal relation K+ was introduced by Sorkin and Woolgar to extend the standard causal analysis of C2 spacetimes to those that are only C0. Most of their results also hold true in the case of metrics with degeneracies which are C0 but vanish at isolated points. In this paper we seek to examine K+ explicitly in the case of topology-changing `Morse histories' which contain degeneracies. We first demonstrate some interesting features of this relation in globally Lorentzian spacetimes. In particular, we show that K+ is robust and the Hawking and Sachs characterization of causal continuity translates into a natural condition in terms of K+. We then examine K+ in topology-changing Morse spacetimes with the degenerate points excised and then for the Morse histories in which the degenerate points are reinstated. We find further characterizations of causal continuity in these cases.

  10. Dissimilar Effects of World News Announcements on Euro/Dollar/Yen Exchange Rates: An Econophysics Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Matesanz

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper revisits the issue of the influence of macro-economic announcements over the exchange rates volatility, but from a different perspective as it is the usual in the econometric literature. By quantifying the impact of world-wide macroeconomic information published in the economic calendar in several recent years we were able to construct long events’ time series with the objective to test whether they influence exchange rate volatilities in several currencies. In order to do that, Granger causality test was employed by using a computational approach. Our results show that announcements from U.S.A are, by far, the most important influence over the three spot forex quotes, Euro/Dollar, Euro/Yen and Dollar/Yen. The method proposed here opens the door to address several open questions until now.

  11. A possible realization of Einstein's causal theory underlying quantum mechanics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yussouff, M.

    1979-06-01

    It is shown that a new microscopic mechanics formulated earlier can be looked upon as a possible causal theory underlying quantum mechanics, which removes Einstein's famous objections against quantum theory. This approach is free from objections raised against Bohm's hidden variable theory and leads to a clear physical picture in terms of familiar concepts, if self interactions are held responsible for deviations from classical behaviour. The new level of physics unfolded by this approach may reveal novel frontiers in high-energy physics. (author)

  12. Characterizing time series: when Granger causality triggers complex networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ge Tian; Cui Yindong; Lin Wei; Liu Chong; Kurths, Jürgen

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, we propose a new approach to characterize time series with noise perturbations in both the time and frequency domains by combining Granger causality and complex networks. We construct directed and weighted complex networks from time series and use representative network measures to describe their physical and topological properties. Through analyzing the typical dynamical behaviors of some physical models and the MIT-BIH human electrocardiogram data sets, we show that the proposed approach is able to capture and characterize various dynamics and has much potential for analyzing real-world time series of rather short length. (paper)

  13. Characterizing time series: when Granger causality triggers complex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ge, Tian; Cui, Yindong; Lin, Wei; Kurths, Jürgen; Liu, Chong

    2012-08-01

    In this paper, we propose a new approach to characterize time series with noise perturbations in both the time and frequency domains by combining Granger causality and complex networks. We construct directed and weighted complex networks from time series and use representative network measures to describe their physical and topological properties. Through analyzing the typical dynamical behaviors of some physical models and the MIT-BIHMassachusetts Institute of Technology-Beth Israel Hospital. human electrocardiogram data sets, we show that the proposed approach is able to capture and characterize various dynamics and has much potential for analyzing real-world time series of rather short length.

  14. Reconstructing constructivism: Causal models, Bayesian learning mechanisms and the theory theory

    OpenAIRE

    Gopnik, Alison; Wellman, Henry M.

    2012-01-01

    We propose a new version of the “theory theory” grounded in the computational framework of probabilistic causal models and Bayesian learning. Probabilistic models allow a constructivist but rigorous and detailed approach to cognitive development. They also explain the learning of both more specific causal hypotheses and more abstract framework theories. We outline the new theoretical ideas, explain the computational framework in an intuitive and non-technical way, and review an extensive but ...

  15. Efficient nonparametric estimation of causal mediation effects

    OpenAIRE

    Chan, K. C. G.; Imai, K.; Yam, S. C. P.; Zhang, Z.

    2016-01-01

    An essential goal of program evaluation and scientific research is the investigation of causal mechanisms. Over the past several decades, causal mediation analysis has been used in medical and social sciences to decompose the treatment effect into the natural direct and indirect effects. However, all of the existing mediation analysis methods rely on parametric modeling assumptions in one way or another, typically requiring researchers to specify multiple regression models involving the treat...

  16. Inference of Boundaries in Causal Sets

    OpenAIRE

    Cunningham, William

    2017-01-01

    We investigate the extrinsic geometry of causal sets in $(1+1)$-dimensional Minkowski spacetime. The properties of boundaries in an embedding space can be used not only to measure observables, but also to supplement the discrete action in the partition function via discretized Gibbons-Hawking-York boundary terms. We define several ways to represent a causal set using overlapping subsets, which then allows us to distinguish between null and non-null bounding hypersurfaces in an embedding space...

  17. Causal strength induction from time series data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soo, Kevin W; Rottman, Benjamin M

    2018-04-01

    One challenge when inferring the strength of cause-effect relations from time series data is that the cause and/or effect can exhibit temporal trends. If temporal trends are not accounted for, a learner could infer that a causal relation exists when it does not, or even infer that there is a positive causal relation when the relation is negative, or vice versa. We propose that learners use a simple heuristic to control for temporal trends-that they focus not on the states of the cause and effect at a given instant, but on how the cause and effect change from one observation to the next, which we call transitions. Six experiments were conducted to understand how people infer causal strength from time series data. We found that participants indeed use transitions in addition to states, which helps them to reach more accurate causal judgments (Experiments 1A and 1B). Participants use transitions more when the stimuli are presented in a naturalistic visual format than a numerical format (Experiment 2), and the effect of transitions is not driven by primacy or recency effects (Experiment 3). Finally, we found that participants primarily use the direction in which variables change rather than the magnitude of the change for estimating causal strength (Experiments 4 and 5). Collectively, these studies provide evidence that people often use a simple yet effective heuristic for inferring causal strength from time series data. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

  18. Kant on causal laws and powers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henschen, Tobias

    2014-12-01

    The aim of the paper is threefold. Its first aim is to defend Eric Watkins's claim that for Kant, a cause is not an event but a causal power: a power that is borne by a substance, and that, when active, brings about its effect, i.e. a change of the states of another substance, by generating a continuous flow of intermediate states of that substance. The second aim of the paper is to argue against Watkins that the Kantian concept of causal power is not the pre-critical concept of real ground but the category of causality, and that Kant holds with Hume that causal laws cannot be inferred non-inductively (that he accordingly has no intention to show in the Second analogy or elsewhere that events fall under causal laws). The third aim of the paper is to compare the Kantian position on causality with central tenets of contemporary powers ontology: it argues that unlike the variants endorsed by contemporary powers theorists, the Kantian variants of these tenets are resistant to objections that neo-Humeans raise to these tenets.

  19. Causality violation, gravitational shockwaves and UV completion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hollowood, Timothy J.; Shore, Graham M. [Department of Physics, Swansea University,Swansea, SA2 8PP (United Kingdom)

    2016-03-18

    The effective actions describing the low-energy dynamics of QFTs involving gravity generically exhibit causality violations. These may take the form of superluminal propagation or Shapiro time advances and allow the construction of “time machines”, i.e. spacetimes admitting closed non-spacelike curves. Here, we discuss critically whether such causality violations may be used as a criterion to identify unphysical effective actions or whether, and how, causality problems may be resolved by embedding the action in a fundamental, UV complete QFT. We study in detail the case of photon scattering in an Aichelburg-Sexl gravitational shockwave background and calculate the phase shifts in QED for all energies, demonstrating their smooth interpolation from the causality-violating effective action values at low-energy to their manifestly causal high-energy limits. At low energies, these phase shifts may be interpreted as backwards-in-time coordinate jumps as the photon encounters the shock wavefront, and we illustrate how the resulting causality problems emerge and are resolved in a two-shockwave time machine scenario. The implications of our results for ultra-high (Planck) energy scattering, in which graviton exchange is modelled by the shockwave background, are highlighted.

  20. A framework for estimating causal effects in latent class analysis: is there a causal link between early sex and subsequent profiles of delinquency?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butera, Nicole M; Lanza, Stephanie T; Coffman, Donna L

    2014-06-01

    Prevention scientists use latent class analysis (LCA) with increasing frequency to characterize complex behavior patterns and profiles of risk. Often, the most important research questions in these studies involve establishing characteristics that predict membership in the latent classes, thus describing the composition of the subgroups and suggesting possible points of intervention. More recently, prevention scientists have begun to adopt modern methods for drawing causal inference from observational data because of the bias that can be introduced by confounders. This same issue of confounding exists in any analysis of observational data, including prediction of latent class membership. This study demonstrates a straightforward approach to causal inference in LCA that builds on propensity score methods. We demonstrate this approach by examining the causal effect of early sex on subsequent delinquency latent classes using data from 1,890 adolescents in 11th and 12th grade from wave I of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health. Prior to the statistical adjustment for potential confounders, early sex was significantly associated with delinquency latent class membership for both genders (p = 0.02). However, the propensity score adjusted analysis indicated no evidence for a causal effect of early sex on delinquency class membership (p = 0.76) for either gender. Sample R and SAS code is included in an Appendix in the ESM so that prevention scientists may adopt this approach to causal inference in LCA in their own work.

  1. Implementation and reporting of causal mediation analysis in 2015: a systematic review in epidemiological studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Shao-Hsien; Ulbricht, Christine M; Chrysanthopoulou, Stavroula A; Lapane, Kate L

    2016-07-20

    Causal mediation analysis is often used to understand the impact of variables along the causal pathway of an occurrence relation. How well studies apply and report the elements of causal mediation analysis remains unknown. We systematically reviewed epidemiological studies published in 2015 that employed causal mediation analysis to estimate direct and indirect effects of observed associations between an exposure on an outcome. We identified potential epidemiological studies through conducting a citation search within Web of Science and a keyword search within PubMed. Two reviewers independently screened studies for eligibility. For eligible studies, one reviewer performed data extraction, and a senior epidemiologist confirmed the extracted information. Empirical application and methodological details of the technique were extracted and summarized. Thirteen studies were eligible for data extraction. While the majority of studies reported and identified the effects of measures, most studies lacked sufficient details on the extent to which identifiability assumptions were satisfied. Although most studies addressed issues of unmeasured confounders either from empirical approaches or sensitivity analyses, the majority did not examine the potential bias arising from the measurement error of the mediator. Some studies allowed for exposure-mediator interaction and only a few presented results from models both with and without interactions. Power calculations were scarce. Reporting of causal mediation analysis is varied and suboptimal. Given that the application of causal mediation analysis will likely continue to increase, developing standards of reporting of causal mediation analysis in epidemiological research would be prudent.

  2. Drawing causal inferences using propensity scores: a practical guide for community psychologists.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lanza, Stephanie T; Moore, Julia E; Butera, Nicole M

    2013-12-01

    Confounding present in observational data impede community psychologists' ability to draw causal inferences. This paper describes propensity score methods as a conceptually straightforward approach to drawing causal inferences from observational data. A step-by-step demonstration of three propensity score methods-weighting, matching, and subclassification-is presented in the context of an empirical examination of the causal effect of preschool experiences (Head Start vs. parental care) on reading development in kindergarten. Although the unadjusted population estimate indicated that children with parental care had substantially higher reading scores than children who attended Head Start, all propensity score adjustments reduce the size of this overall causal effect by more than half. The causal effect was also defined and estimated among children who attended Head Start. Results provide no evidence for improved reading if those children had instead received parental care. We carefully define different causal effects and discuss their respective policy implications, summarize advantages and limitations of each propensity score method, and provide SAS and R syntax so that community psychologists may conduct causal inference in their own research.

  3. Illness causal beliefs in Turkish immigrants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Klimidis Steven

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background People hold a wide variety of beliefs concerning the causes of illness. Such beliefs vary across cultures and, among immigrants, may be influenced by many factors, including level of acculturation, gender, level of education, and experience of illness and treatment. This study examines illness causal beliefs in Turkish-immigrants in Australia. Methods Causal beliefs about somatic and mental illness were examined in a sample of 444 members of the Turkish population of Melbourne. The socio-demographic characteristics of the sample were broadly similar to those of the Melbourne Turkish community. Five issues were examined: the structure of causal beliefs; the relative frequency of natural, supernatural and metaphysical beliefs; ascription of somatic, mental, or both somatic and mental conditions to the various causes; the correlations of belief types with socio-demographic, modernizing and acculturation variables; and the relationship between causal beliefs and current illness. Results Principal components analysis revealed two broad factors, accounting for 58 percent of the variation in scores on illness belief scales, distinctly interpretable as natural and supernatural beliefs. Second, beliefs in natural causes were more frequent than beliefs in supernatural causes. Third, some causal beliefs were commonly linked to both somatic and mental conditions while others were regarded as more specific to either somatic or mental disorders. Last, there was a range of correlations between endorsement of belief types and factors defining heterogeneity within the community, including with demographic factors, indicators of modernizing and acculturative processes, and the current presence of illness. Conclusion Results supported the classification of causal beliefs proposed by Murdock, Wilson & Frederick, with a division into natural and supernatural causes. While belief in natural causes is more common, belief in supernatural causes

  4. Illness causal beliefs in Turkish immigrants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minas, Harry; Klimidis, Steven; Tuncer, Can

    2007-07-24

    People hold a wide variety of beliefs concerning the causes of illness. Such beliefs vary across cultures and, among immigrants, may be influenced by many factors, including level of acculturation, gender, level of education, and experience of illness and treatment. This study examines illness causal beliefs in Turkish-immigrants in Australia. Causal beliefs about somatic and mental illness were examined in a sample of 444 members of the Turkish population of Melbourne. The socio-demographic characteristics of the sample were broadly similar to those of the Melbourne Turkish community. Five issues were examined: the structure of causal beliefs; the relative frequency of natural, supernatural and metaphysical beliefs; ascription of somatic, mental, or both somatic and mental conditions to the various causes; the correlations of belief types with socio-demographic, modernizing and acculturation variables; and the relationship between causal beliefs and current illness. Principal components analysis revealed two broad factors, accounting for 58 percent of the variation in scores on illness belief scales, distinctly interpretable as natural and supernatural beliefs. Second, beliefs in natural causes were more frequent than beliefs in supernatural causes. Third, some causal beliefs were commonly linked to both somatic and mental conditions while others were regarded as more specific to either somatic or mental disorders. Last, there was a range of correlations between endorsement of belief types and factors defining heterogeneity within the community, including with demographic factors, indicators of modernizing and acculturative processes, and the current presence of illness. Results supported the classification of causal beliefs proposed by Murdock, Wilson & Frederick, with a division into natural and supernatural causes. While belief in natural causes is more common, belief in supernatural causes persists despite modernizing and acculturative influences. Different

  5. Flipping the Classroom Revisited

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riendeau, Diane

    2013-02-01

    I received many emails following the first column on flipping the classroom. Many of my local colleagues also approached me at our physics alliance, Physics Northwest. Teachers are very interested in this new pedagogy. As I result, I wanted to share some more videos to inspire you.

  6. Stirling Engine Gets Revisited

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Frank

    2010-01-01

    One of the basic truths regarding energy conversion is that no thermodynamic cycle can be devised that is more efficient than a Carnot cycle operating between the same temperature limits. The efficiency of the Stirling cycle (patented by Rev. Robert Stirling in 1816) can approach that of the Carnot cycle and yet has not had the commercial success…

  7. The Danish System Revisited.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitehead, John S.

    The paper is a supplement to an earlier paper in the same series which reviews Danish higher education until 1977. Expansion in higher education in the last 20 years, approaching the scale of mass higher education, culminated in a crisis in 1977. At that time, a trend toward self-government and participatory governing boards was seen as the end of…

  8. Schroedinger's variational method of quantization revisited

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yasue, K.

    1980-01-01

    Schroedinger's original quantization procedure is revisited in the light of Nelson's stochastic framework of quantum mechanics. It is clarified why Schroedinger's proposal of a variational problem led us to a true description of quantum mechanics. (orig.)

  9. Entanglement entropy in causal set theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sorkin, Rafael D.; Yazdi, Yasaman K.

    2018-04-01

    Entanglement entropy is now widely accepted as having deep connections with quantum gravity. It is therefore desirable to understand it in the context of causal sets, especially since they provide in a natural manner the UV cutoff needed to render entanglement entropy finite. Formulating a notion of entanglement entropy in a causal set is not straightforward because the type of canonical hypersurface-data on which its definition typically relies is not available. Instead, we appeal to the more global expression given in Sorkin (2012 (arXiv:1205.2953)) which, for a Gaussian scalar field, expresses the entropy of a spacetime region in terms of the field’s correlation function within that region (its ‘Wightman function’ W(x, x') ). Carrying this formula over to the causal set, one obtains an entropy which is both finite and of a Lorentz invariant nature. We evaluate this global entropy-expression numerically for certain regions (primarily order-intervals or ‘causal diamonds’) within causal sets of 1  +  1 dimensions. For the causal-set counterpart of the entanglement entropy, we obtain, in the first instance, a result that follows a (spacetime) volume law instead of the expected (spatial) area law. We find, however, that one obtains an area law if one truncates the commutator function (‘Pauli–Jordan operator’) and the Wightman function by projecting out the eigenmodes of the Pauli–Jordan operator whose eigenvalues are too close to zero according to a geometrical criterion which we describe more fully below. In connection with these results and the questions they raise, we also study the ‘entropy of coarse-graining’ generated by thinning out the causal set, and we compare it with what one obtains by similarly thinning out a chain of harmonic oscillators, finding the same, ‘universal’ behaviour in both cases.

  10. Inferring the conservative causal core of gene regulatory networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emmert-Streib Frank

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Inferring gene regulatory networks from large-scale expression data is an important problem that received much attention in recent years. These networks have the potential to gain insights into causal molecular interactions of biological processes. Hence, from a methodological point of view, reliable estimation methods based on observational data are needed to approach this problem practically. Results In this paper, we introduce a novel gene regulatory network inference (GRNI algorithm, called C3NET. We compare C3NET with four well known methods, ARACNE, CLR, MRNET and RN, conducting in-depth numerical ensemble simulations and demonstrate also for biological expression data from E. coli that C3NET performs consistently better than the best known GRNI methods in the literature. In addition, it has also a low computational complexity. Since C3NET is based on estimates of mutual information values in conjunction with a maximization step, our numerical investigations demonstrate that our inference algorithm exploits causal structural information in the data efficiently. Conclusions For systems biology to succeed in the long run, it is of crucial importance to establish methods that extract large-scale gene networks from high-throughput data that reflect the underlying causal interactions among genes or gene products. Our method can contribute to this endeavor by demonstrating that an inference algorithm with a neat design permits not only a more intuitive and possibly biological interpretation of its working mechanism but can also result in superior results.

  11. Inferring the conservative causal core of gene regulatory networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Altay, Gökmen; Emmert-Streib, Frank

    2010-09-28

    Inferring gene regulatory networks from large-scale expression data is an important problem that received much attention in recent years. These networks have the potential to gain insights into causal molecular interactions of biological processes. Hence, from a methodological point of view, reliable estimation methods based on observational data are needed to approach this problem practically. In this paper, we introduce a novel gene regulatory network inference (GRNI) algorithm, called C3NET. We compare C3NET with four well known methods, ARACNE, CLR, MRNET and RN, conducting in-depth numerical ensemble simulations and demonstrate also for biological expression data from E. coli that C3NET performs consistently better than the best known GRNI methods in the literature. In addition, it has also a low computational complexity. Since C3NET is based on estimates of mutual information values in conjunction with a maximization step, our numerical investigations demonstrate that our inference algorithm exploits causal structural information in the data efficiently. For systems biology to succeed in the long run, it is of crucial importance to establish methods that extract large-scale gene networks from high-throughput data that reflect the underlying causal interactions among genes or gene products. Our method can contribute to this endeavor by demonstrating that an inference algorithm with a neat design permits not only a more intuitive and possibly biological interpretation of its working mechanism but can also result in superior results.

  12. Implications about the causality principle in the business income tax

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis Durán Rojo

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available The following article presents the implications about the practice of the causality principle for the determination of the income set with intention to apply the business income tax.We start considering the fact that this tax can be imposed to acquire goods known as a deductible expense of the practice, but not from those that are going to be part of the compatible cost to expropriate. Then, we make an extensive analysis about the way the Peruvian income tax law has configured the approaches of this principle and the understanding emerged from important jurisprudence cases from the members that solve problems, specially the Tax Court, when adopting a fast principle of expenses without causes.At the same time, this article describes the achievements of the rational and normality cost principles, so important for the evaluation of the performance of the principle of causality.Finally, we present some ideas about the accreditation of the cost facing and its relation to the causality principle.

  13. In defense of causal-formative indicators: A minority report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bollen, Kenneth A; Diamantopoulos, Adamantios

    2017-09-01

    Causal-formative indicators directly affect their corresponding latent variable. They run counter to the predominant view that indicators depend on latent variables and are thus often controversial. If present, such indicators have serious implications for factor analysis, reliability theory, item response theory, structural equation models, and most measurement approaches that are based on reflective or effect indicators. Psychological Methods has published a number of influential articles on causal and formative indicators as well as launching the first major backlash against them. This article examines 7 common criticisms of these indicators distilled from the literature: (a) A construct measured with "formative" indicators does not exist independently of its indicators; (b) Such indicators are causes rather than measures; (c) They imply multiple dimensions to a construct and this is a liability; (d) They are assumed to be error-free, which is unrealistic; (e) They are inherently subject to interpretational confounding; (f) They fail proportionality constraints; and (g) Their coefficients should be set in advance and not estimated. We summarize each of these criticisms and point out the flaws in the logic and evidence marshaled in their support. The most common problems are not distinguishing between what we call causal-formative and composite-formative indicators, tautological fallacies, and highlighting issues that are common to all indicators, but presenting them as special problems of causal-formative indicators. We conclude that measurement theory needs (a) to incorporate these types of indicators, and (b) to better understand their similarities to and differences from traditional indicators. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  14. Causal mediation analysis with multiple mediators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniel, R M; De Stavola, B L; Cousens, S N; Vansteelandt, S

    2015-03-01

    In diverse fields of empirical research-including many in the biological sciences-attempts are made to decompose the effect of an exposure on an outcome into its effects via a number of different pathways. For example, we may wish to separate the effect of heavy alcohol consumption on systolic blood pressure (SBP) into effects via body mass index (BMI), via gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase (GGT), and via other pathways. Much progress has been made, mainly due to contributions from the field of causal inference, in understanding the precise nature of statistical estimands that capture such intuitive effects, the assumptions under which they can be identified, and statistical methods for doing so. These contributions have focused almost entirely on settings with a single mediator, or a set of mediators considered en bloc; in many applications, however, researchers attempt a much more ambitious decomposition into numerous path-specific effects through many mediators. In this article, we give counterfactual definitions of such path-specific estimands in settings with multiple mediators, when earlier mediators may affect later ones, showing that there are many ways in which decomposition can be done. We discuss the strong assumptions under which the effects are identified, suggesting a sensitivity analysis approach when a particular subset of the assumptions cannot be justified. These ideas are illustrated using data on alcohol consumption, SBP, BMI, and GGT from the Izhevsk Family Study. We aim to bridge the gap from "single mediator theory" to "multiple mediator practice," highlighting the ambitious nature of this endeavor and giving practical suggestions on how to proceed. © 2014 The Authors Biometrics published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of International Biometric Society.

  15. Inverse odds ratio-weighted estimation for causal mediation analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tchetgen Tchetgen, Eric J

    2013-11-20

    An important scientific goal of studies in the health and social sciences is increasingly to determine to what extent the total effect of a point exposure is mediated by an intermediate variable on the causal pathway between the exposure and the outcome. A causal framework has recently been proposed for mediation analysis, which gives rise to new definitions, formal identification results and novel estimators of direct and indirect effects. In the present paper, the author describes a new inverse odds ratio-weighted approach to estimate so-called natural direct and indirect effects. The approach, which uses as a weight the inverse of an estimate of the odds ratio function relating the exposure and the mediator, is universal in that it can be used to decompose total effects in a number of regression models commonly used in practice. Specifically, the approach may be used for effect decomposition in generalized linear models with a nonlinear link function, and in a number of other commonly used models such as the Cox proportional hazards regression for a survival outcome. The approach is simple and can be implemented in standard software provided a weight can be specified for each observation. An additional advantage of the method is that it easily incorporates multiple mediators of a categorical, discrete or continuous nature. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  16. The Relevance of Causal Social Construction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marques Teresa

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Social constructionist claims are surprising and interesting when they entail that presumably natural kinds are in fact socially constructed. The claims are interesting because of their theoretical and political importance. Authors like Díaz-León argue that constitutive social construction is more relevant for achieving social justice than causal social construction. This paper challenges this claim. Assuming there are socially salient groups that are discriminated against, the paper presents a dilemma: if there were no constitutively constructed social kinds, the causes of the discrimination of existing social groups would have to be addressed, and understanding causal social construction would be relevant to achieve social justice. On the other hand, not all possible constitutively socially constructed kinds are actual social kinds. If an existing social group is constitutively constructed as a social kind K, the fact that it actually exists as a K has social causes. Again, causal social construction is relevant. The paper argues that (i for any actual social kind X, if X is constitutively socially constructed as K, then it is also causally socially constructed; and (ii causal social construction is at least as relevant as constitutive social construction for concerns of social justice. For illustration, I draw upon two phenomena that are presumed to contribute towards the discrimination of women: (i the poor performance effects of stereotype threat, and (ii the silencing effects of gendered language use.

  17. Preschoolers prefer to learn causal information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aubry eAlvarez

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Young children, in general, appear to have a strong drive to explore the environment in ways that reveal its underlying causal structure. But are they really attuned specifically to casual information in this quest for understanding, or do they show equal interest in other types of non-obvious information about the world? To answer this question, we introduced 20 three-year-old children to two puppets who were anxious to tell the child about a set of novel artifacts and animals. One puppet consistently described causal properties of the items while the other puppet consistently described carefully matched non-causal properties of the same items. After a familiarization period in which children learned which type of information to expect from each informant, children were given the opportunity to choose which they wanted to hear describe each of eight pictured test items. On average, children chose to hear from the informant that provided causal descriptions on 72% of the trials. This preference for causal information has important implications for explaining the role of conceptual information in supporting early learning and may suggest means for maximizing interest and motivation in young children.

  18. A framework for assessing frequency domain causality in physiological time series with instantaneous effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faes, Luca; Erla, Silvia; Porta, Alberto; Nollo, Giandomenico

    2013-08-28

    We present an approach for the quantification of directional relations in multiple time series exhibiting significant zero-lag interactions. To overcome the limitations of the traditional multivariate autoregressive (MVAR) modelling of multiple series, we introduce an extended MVAR (eMVAR) framework allowing either exclusive consideration of time-lagged effects according to the classic notion of Granger causality, or consideration of combined instantaneous and lagged effects according to an extended causality definition. The spectral representation of the eMVAR model is exploited to derive novel frequency domain causality measures that generalize to the case of instantaneous effects the known directed coherence (DC) and partial DC measures. The new measures are illustrated in theoretical examples showing that they reduce to the known measures in the absence of instantaneous causality, and describe peculiar aspects of directional interaction among multiple series when instantaneous causality is non-negligible. Then, the issue of estimating eMVAR models from time-series data is faced, proposing two approaches for model identification and discussing problems related to the underlying model assumptions. Finally, applications of the framework on cardiovascular variability series and multichannel EEG recordings are presented, showing how it allows one to highlight patterns of frequency domain causality consistent with well-interpretable physiological interaction mechanisms.

  19. A frequency domain subspace algorithm for mixed causal, anti-causal LTI systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fraanje, Rufus; Verhaegen, Michel; Verdult, Vincent; Pintelon, Rik

    2003-01-01

    The paper extends the subspacc identification method to estimate state-space models from frequency response function (FRF) samples, proposed by McKelvey et al. (1996) for mixed causal/anti-causal systems, and shows that other frequency domain subspace algorithms can be extended similarly. The method

  20. Nuclear energy consumption and economic growth in OECD countries: Cross-sectionally dependent heterogeneous panel causality analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nazlioglu, Saban; Lebe, Fuat; Kayhan, Selim

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to determine the direction causality between nuclear energy consumption and economic growth in OECD countries. The empirical model that includes capital and labor force as the control variables is estimated for the panel of fourteen OECD countries during the period 1980-2007. Apart from the previous studies in the nuclear energy consumption and economic growth relationship, this study utilizes the novel panel causality approach, which allows both cross-sectional dependency and heterogeneity across countries. The findings show that there is no causality between nuclear energy consumption and economic growth in eleven out of fourteen cases, supporting the neutrality hypothesis. As a sensitivity analysis, we also conduct Toda-Yamamoto time series causality method and find out that the results from the panel causality analysis are slightly different than those from the time-series causality analysis. Thereby, we can conclude that the choice of statistical tools in analyzing the nature of causality between nuclear energy consumption and economic growth may play a key role for policy implications. - Highlights: → Causality between nuclear energy consumption and economic growth is examined for OECD countries. → Panel causality method, which allows cross-sectional dependency and heterogeneity, is utilized. → The neutrality hypothesis is supported.

  1. Short or Long End of the Lever? Associations between Provider Communication of the "Asthma-Action Plan" and Outpatient Revisits for Pediatric Asthma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rangachari, Pavani; Mehta, Renuka; Rethemeyer, R Karl; Ferrang, Carole; Dennis, Clifton; Redd, Vickie

    2015-10-01

    At the Children's Hospital of Georgia (CHOG), we found that outpatient revisits for pediatric asthma were significantly above national norms. According to the NIH, costly hospital revisits for asthma can be prevented through guidelines-based self-management of asthma, central to which, is the use of a written Asthma-Action Plan (AAP). The asthma services literature has emphasized the role of the healthcare provider in promoting asthma self-management using the AAP, to prevent hospital revisits. On the other hand, the asthma policy literature has emphasized the need for community-based interventions to promote asthma self-management. A gap remains in understanding the extent of leverage that healthcare providers may have in preventing hospital revisits for asthma, through effective communication of AAP in the outpatient setting. Our study sought to address this gap. We conducted a 6-month intervention to implement "patient-and-family-centered communication of the AAP" in CHOG outpatient clinics, based on the "change-management" theoretical framework. Provider communication of AAP was assessed through a survey of "Parent Understanding of the Child's AAP." A quasi-experimental approach was used to measure outpatient revisits for pediatric asthma, pre- and post-intervention. Survey results showed that provider communication of the AAP was unanimously perceived highly positively by parents of pediatric asthma patients, across various metrics of patient-centered care. However, there were no statistically significant differences in outpatient "revisit behavior" for pediatric asthma between pre- and post-intervention periods after controlling for several demographic variables. Additionally, revisits remained significantly above national norms. Results suggest limited potential of "effective provider communication of AAP," in reducing outpatient revisits for pediatric asthma; and indicate need for broader community-based interventions to address patient life variables

  2. New inflation revisited

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brandenberger, R.H.

    1986-01-01

    Cosmological phase transitions are examined using a new approach based on the dynamical analysis of the equations of motion of quantum fields rather than on static effective potential considerations. In many models the universe enters a period of exponential expansion required for an inflationary cosmology. Analytical methods show that this will be the case if the interaction rate due to quantum field nonlinearities is small compared to the expansion rate of the universe. They derive a heuristic criterion for the maximal value of the coupling constant for which they expect inflation. The prediction is in good agreement with numerical results

  3. Nuclear deterrence revisited

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sur, S.

    1993-01-01

    One of the most important consequences of the profound changes that have affected the international system over recent years undoubtedly relates to nuclear deterrence. As a cornerstone of East-West relations, and the foundation of the arms control effort which dominated all other approaches to disarmament, it embodied the permanent opposition between two camps as well as the limits to their confrontation. This presentation deals with permanence of the basic elements concerning deterrence of nuclear weapons and arms control. Evolution of deterrence is presented, including prospects of spread of nuclear capabilities, political foundations of deterrence, fragility of the non-proliferation efforts as well as problems concerned with management of deterrence

  4. The Problem Revisited

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ovesen, Nis

    2015-01-01

    Problem-based learning (PBL) is becoming increasingly popular in design educations, but how is it taught and practiced? This paper presents a case study of a three-day workshop that has the purpose of introducing PBL to design students. A theoretical background on PBL and problems in design is es...... is established and is backing up the case study. The study shows that design engineering and architectural students without experience in PBL in general finds the approach to be beneficial when working on a design challenge in a student team....

  5. Quantum repeated games revisited

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frąckiewicz, Piotr

    2012-01-01

    We present a scheme for playing quantum repeated 2 × 2 games based on Marinatto and Weber’s approach to quantum games. As a potential application, we study the twice repeated Prisoner’s Dilemma game. We show that results not available in the classical game can be obtained when the game is played in the quantum way. Before we present our idea, we comment on the previous scheme of playing quantum repeated games proposed by Iqbal and Toor. We point out the drawbacks that make their results unacceptable. (paper)

  6. Impact assessment revisited

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thiele, Jan; Kollmann, Johannes Christian; Markussen, Bo

    2010-01-01

    ; and (4) the total invaded range is an inappropriate measure for quantifying regional impact because the habitat area available for invasion can vary markedly among invasive species. Mathematical models and empirical data using an invasive alien plant species (Heracleum mantegazzianum) indicate......The theoretical underpinnings of the assessment of invasive alien species impacts need to be improved. At present most approaches are unreliable to quantify impact at regional scales and do not allow for comparison of different invasive species. There are four basic problems that need...... and we discuss the quantification of the invaded range. These improvements are crucial for impact assessment with the overall aim of prioritizing management of invasive species....

  7. Revisiting event horizon finders

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cohen, Michael I; Pfeiffer, Harald P; Scheel, Mark A

    2009-01-01

    Event horizons are the defining physical features of black hole spacetimes, and are of considerable interest in studying black hole dynamics. Here, we reconsider three techniques to find event horizons in numerical spacetimes: integrating geodesics, integrating a surface, and integrating a level-set of surfaces over a volume. We implement the first two techniques and find that straightforward integration of geodesics backward in time is most robust. We find that the exponential rate of approach of a null surface towards the event horizon of a spinning black hole equals the surface gravity of the black hole. In head-on mergers we are able to track quasi-normal ringing of the merged black hole through seven oscillations, covering a dynamic range of about 10 5 . Both at late times (when the final black hole has settled down) and at early times (before the merger), the apparent horizon is found to be an excellent approximation of the event horizon. In the head-on binary black hole merger, only some of the future null generators of the horizon are found to start from past null infinity; the others approach the event horizons of the individual black holes at times far before merger.

  8. Causal transfer function analysis to describe closed loop interactions between cardiovascular and cardiorespiratory variability signals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faes, L; Porta, A; Cucino, R; Cerutti, S; Antolini, R; Nollo, G

    2004-06-01

    Although the concept of transfer function is intrinsically related to an input-output relationship, the traditional and widely used estimation method merges both feedback and feedforward interactions between the two analyzed signals. This limitation may endanger the reliability of transfer function analysis in biological systems characterized by closed loop interactions. In this study, a method for estimating the transfer function between closed loop interacting signals was proposed and validated in the field of cardiovascular and cardiorespiratory variability. The two analyzed signals x and y were described by a bivariate autoregressive model, and the causal transfer function from x to y was estimated after imposing causality by setting to zero the model coefficients representative of the reverse effects from y to x. The method was tested in simulations reproducing linear open and closed loop interactions, showing a better adherence of the causal transfer function to the theoretical curves with respect to the traditional approach in presence of non-negligible reverse effects. It was then applied in ten healthy young subjects to characterize the transfer functions from respiration to heart period (RR interval) and to systolic arterial pressure (SAP), and from SAP to RR interval. In the first two cases, the causal and non-causal transfer function estimates were comparable, indicating that respiration, acting as exogenous signal, sets an open loop relationship upon SAP and RR interval. On the contrary, causal and traditional transfer functions from SAP to RR were significantly different, suggesting the presence of a considerable influence on the opposite causal direction. Thus, the proposed causal approach seems to be appropriate for the estimation of parameters, like the gain and the phase lag from SAP to RR interval, which have a large clinical and physiological relevance.

  9. The drive revisited: Mastery and satisfaction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denis, Paul

    2016-06-01

    Starting from the theory of the libido and the notions of the experience of satisfaction and the drive for mastery introduced by Freud, the author revisits the notion of the drive by proposing the following model: the drive takes shape in the combination of two currents of libidinal cathexis, one which takes the paths of the 'apparatus for obtaining mastery' (the sense-organs, motricity, etc.) and strives to appropriate the object, and the other which cathects the erotogenic zones and the experience of satisfaction that is experienced through stimulation in contact with the object. The result of this combination of cathexes constitutes a 'representation', the subsequent evocation of which makes it possible to tolerate for a certain period of time the absence of a satisfying object. On the basis of this conception, the author distinguishes the representations proper, vehicles of satisfaction, from imagos and traumatic images which give rise to excitation that does not link up with the paths taken by the drives. This model makes it possible to conciliate the points of view of the advocates of 'object-seeking' and of those who give precedence to the search for pleasure, and, further, to renew our understanding of object-relations, which can then be approached from the angle of their relations to infantile sexuality. Destructiveness is considered in terms of "mastery madness" and not in terms of the late Freudian hypothesis of the death drive. Copyright © 2015 Institute of Psychoanalysis.

  10. Revisiting the Survival Mnemonic Effect in Children

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Josefa N. S. Pand Eirada

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The survival processing paradigm is designed to explore the adaptive nature of memory functioning. The mnemonic advantage of processing information in fitness-relevant contexts, as has been demonstrated using this paradigm, is now well established, particularly in young adults; this phenomenon is often referred to as the “survival processing effect.” In the current experiment, we revisited the investigation of this effect in children and tested it in a new cultural group, using a procedure that differs from the existing studies with children. A group of 40 Portuguese children rated the relevance of unrelated words to a survival and a new moving scenario. This encoding task was followed by a surprise free-recall task. Akin to what is typically found, survival processing produced better memory performance than the control condition (moving. These data put on firmer ground the idea that a mnemonic tuning to fitness-relevant encodings is present early in development. The theoretical importance of this result to the adaptive memory literature is discussed, as well as potential practical implications of this kind of approach to the study of memory in children.

  11. Causal inheritance in plane wave quotients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubeny, Veronika E.; Rangamani, Mukund; Ross, Simon F.

    2003-01-01

    We investigate the appearance of closed timelike curves in quotients of plane waves along spacelike isometries. First we formulate a necessary and sufficient condition for a quotient of a general spacetime to preserve stable causality. We explicitly show that the plane waves are stably causal; in passing, we observe that some pp-waves are not even distinguishing. We then consider the classification of all quotients of the maximally supersymmetric ten-dimensional plane wave under a spacelike isometry, and show that the quotient will lead to closed timelike curves iff the isometry involves a translation along the u direction. The appearance of these closed timelike curves is thus connected to the special properties of the light cones in plane wave spacetimes. We show that all other quotients preserve stable causality

  12. Inference of boundaries in causal sets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cunningham, William J.

    2018-05-01

    We investigate the extrinsic geometry of causal sets in (1+1) -dimensional Minkowski spacetime. The properties of boundaries in an embedding space can be used not only to measure observables, but also to supplement the discrete action in the partition function via discretized Gibbons–Hawking–York boundary terms. We define several ways to represent a causal set using overlapping subsets, which then allows us to distinguish between null and non-null bounding hypersurfaces in an embedding space. We discuss algorithms to differentiate between different types of regions, consider when these distinctions are possible, and then apply the algorithms to several spacetime regions. Numerical results indicate the volumes of timelike boundaries can be measured to within 0.5% accuracy for flat boundaries and within 10% accuracy for highly curved boundaries for medium-sized causal sets with N  =  214 spacetime elements.

  13. Normalizing the causality between time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, X. San

    2015-08-01

    Recently, a rigorous yet concise formula was derived to evaluate information flow, and hence the causality in a quantitative sense, between time series. To assess the importance of a resulting causality, it needs to be normalized. The normalization is achieved through distinguishing a Lyapunov exponent-like, one-dimensional phase-space stretching rate and a noise-to-signal ratio from the rate of information flow in the balance of the marginal entropy evolution of the flow recipient. It is verified with autoregressive models and applied to a real financial analysis problem. An unusually strong one-way causality is identified from IBM (International Business Machines Corporation) to GE (General Electric Company) in their early era, revealing to us an old story, which has almost faded into oblivion, about "Seven Dwarfs" competing with a giant for the mainframe computer market.

  14. Testing the causal theory of reference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Domaneschi, Filippo; Vignolo, Massimiliano; Di Paola, Simona

    2017-04-01

    Theories of reference are a crucial research topic in analytic philosophy. Since the publication of Kripke's Naming and Necessity, most philosophers have endorsed the causal/historical theory of reference. The goal of this paper is twofold: (i) to discuss a method for testing experimentally the causal theory of reference for proper names by investigating linguistic usage and (ii) to present the results from two experiments conducted with that method. Data collected in our experiments confirm the causal theory of reference for people proper names and for geographical proper names. A secondary but interesting result is that the semantic domain affects reference assignment: while with people proper names speakers tend to assign the semantic reference, with geographical proper names they are prompted to assign the speaker's reference. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Bulk viscous cosmology with causal transport theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Piattella, Oliver F.; Fabris, Júlio C.; Zimdahl, Winfried

    2011-01-01

    We consider cosmological scenarios originating from a single imperfect fluid with bulk viscosity and apply Eckart's and both the full and the truncated Müller-Israel-Stewart's theories as descriptions of the non-equilibrium processes. Our principal objective is to investigate if the dynamical properties of Dark Matter and Dark Energy can be described by a single viscous fluid and how such description changes when a causal theory (Müller-Israel-Stewart's, both in its full and truncated forms) is taken into account instead of Eckart's non-causal one. To this purpose, we find numerical solutions for the gravitational potential and compare its behaviour with the corresponding ΛCDM case. Eckart's and the full causal theory seem to be disfavoured, whereas the truncated theory leads to results similar to those of the ΛCDM model for a bulk viscous speed in the interval 10 −11 || cb 2 ∼ −8

  16. Causal inheritance in plane wave quotients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hubeny, Veronika E.; Rangamani, Mukund; Ross, Simon F.

    2004-01-01

    We investigate the appearance of closed timelike curves in quotients of plane waves along spacelike isometries. First we formulate a necessary and sufficient condition for a quotient of a general space-time to preserve stable causality. We explicitly show that the plane waves are stably causal; in passing, we observe that some pp waves are not even distinguishing. We then consider the classification of all quotients of the maximally supersymmetric ten-dimensional plane wave under a spacelike isometry, and show that the quotient will lead to closed timelike curves iff the isometry involves a translation along the u direction. The appearance of these closed timelike curves is thus connected to the special properties of the light cones in plane wave space-times. We show that all other quotients preserve stable causality.

  17. Neural correlates of continuous causal word generation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wende, Kim C; Straube, Benjamin; Stratmann, Mirjam; Sommer, Jens; Kircher, Tilo; Nagels, Arne

    2012-09-01

    Causality provides a natural structure for organizing our experience and language. Causal reasoning during speech production is a distinct aspect of verbal communication, whose related brain processes are yet unknown. The aim of the current study was to investigate the neural mechanisms underlying the continuous generation of cause-and-effect coherences during overt word production. During fMRI data acquisition participants performed three verbal fluency tasks on identical cue words: A novel causal verbal fluency task (CVF), requiring the production of multiple reasons to a given cue word (e.g. reasons for heat are fire, sun etc.), a semantic (free association, FA, e.g. associations with heat are sweat, shower etc.) and a phonological control task (phonological verbal fluency, PVF, e.g. rhymes with heat are meat, wheat etc.). We found that, in contrast to PVF, both CVF and FA activated a left lateralized network encompassing inferior frontal, inferior parietal and angular regions, with further bilateral activation in middle and inferior as well as superior temporal gyri and the cerebellum. For CVF contrasted against FA, we found greater bold responses only in the left middle frontal cortex. Large overlaps in the neural activations during free association and causal verbal fluency indicate that the access to causal relationships between verbal concepts is at least partly based on the semantic neural network. The selective activation in the left middle frontal cortex for causal verbal fluency suggests that distinct neural processes related to cause-and-effect-relations are associated with the recruitment of middle frontal brain areas. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. BOLD Granger causality reflects vascular anatomy.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J Taylor Webb

    Full Text Available A number of studies have tried to exploit subtle phase differences in BOLD time series to resolve the order of sequential activation of brain regions, or more generally the ability of signal in one region to predict subsequent signal in another region. More recently, such lag-based measures have been applied to investigate directed functional connectivity, although this application has been controversial. We attempted to use large publicly available datasets (FCON 1000, ADHD 200, Human Connectome Project to determine whether consistent spatial patterns of Granger Causality are observed in typical fMRI data. For BOLD datasets from 1,240 typically developing subjects ages 7-40, we measured Granger causality between time series for every pair of 7,266 spherical ROIs covering the gray matter and 264 seed ROIs at hubs of the brain's functional network architecture. Granger causality estimates were strongly reproducible for connections in a test and replication sample (n=620 subjects for each group, as well as in data from a single subject scanned repeatedly, both during resting and passive video viewing. The same effect was even stronger in high temporal resolution fMRI data from the Human Connectome Project, and was observed independently in data collected during performance of 7 task paradigms. The spatial distribution of Granger causality reflected vascular anatomy with a progression from Granger causality sources, in Circle of Willis arterial inflow distributions, to sinks, near large venous vascular structures such as dural venous sinuses and at the periphery of the brain. Attempts to resolve BOLD phase differences with Granger causality should consider the possibility of reproducible vascular confounds, a problem that is independent of the known regional variability of the hemodynamic response.

  19. Revisit the spin-FET: Multiple reflection, inelastic scattering, and lateral size effects

    OpenAIRE

    Xu, Luting; Li, Xin-Qi; Sun, Qing-feng

    2014-01-01

    We revisit the spin-injected field effect transistor (spin-FET) by simulating a lattice model based on recursive lattice Green's function approach. In the one-dimensional case and coherent regime, the simulated results reveal noticeable differences from the celebrated Datta-Das model, which motivate thus an improved treatment and lead to analytic and generalized result. The simulation also allows us to address inelastic scattering (using B\\"uttiker's fictitious reservoir approach) and lateral...

  20. THE FARMLAND VALUATION REVISITED

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xin Li

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Empirical research is scarce concerning the dynamics of farmland markets which inspire the decision to sell farmlands. This paper explores the real option to postpone the sale of land in farmland valuation. In this article, a real options approach is used to analyze farmland prices behavior using historical cash flow and land price information for Illinois. In general, rising farmland values are primarily dependent on agricultural commodity prices and interest rates. Results suggest that uncertainty about future growth and capital gains is a significant component of farmland market value. Furthermore, this research examines several shift factors of the option value of the state’s farmland by taking into account of uncertainty to improve the analysis of farmland market values.

  1. Causal interpretation of stochastic differential equations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sokol, Alexander; Hansen, Niels Richard

    2014-01-01

    We give a causal interpretation of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) by defining the postintervention SDE resulting from an intervention in an SDE. We show that under Lipschitz conditions, the solution to the postintervention SDE is equal to a uniform limit in probability of postintervention...... structural equation models based on the Euler scheme of the original SDE, thus relating our definition to mainstream causal concepts. We prove that when the driving noise in the SDE is a Lévy process, the postintervention distribution is identifiable from the generator of the SDE....

  2. Morse theory on timelike and causal curves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Everson, J.; Talbot, C.J.

    1976-01-01

    It is shown that the set of timelike curves in a globally hyperbolic space-time manifold can be given the structure of a Hilbert manifold under a suitable definition of 'timelike.' The causal curves are the topological closure of this manifold. The Lorentzian energy (corresponding to Milnor's energy, except that the Lorentzian inner product is used) is shown to be a Morse function for the space of causal curves. A fixed end point index theorem is obtained in which a lower bound for the index of the Hessian of the Lorentzian energy is given in terms of the sum of the orders of the conjugate points between the end points. (author)

  3. Inferring causality from noisy time series data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mønster, Dan; Fusaroli, Riccardo; Tylén, Kristian

    2016-01-01

    Convergent Cross-Mapping (CCM) has shown high potential to perform causal inference in the absence of models. We assess the strengths and weaknesses of the method by varying coupling strength and noise levels in coupled logistic maps. We find that CCM fails to infer accurate coupling strength...... and even causality direction in synchronized time-series and in the presence of intermediate coupling. We find that the presence of noise deterministically reduces the level of cross-mapping fidelity, while the convergence rate exhibits higher levels of robustness. Finally, we propose that controlled noise...

  4. Photonic Molecule Lasers Revisited

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gagnon, Denis; Dumont, Joey; Déziel, Jean-Luc; Dubé, Louis J.

    2014-05-01

    Photonic molecules (PMs) formed by coupling two or more optical resonators are ideal candidates for the fabrication of integrated microlasers, photonic molecule lasers. Whereas most calculations on PM lasers have been based on cold-cavity (passive) modes, i.e. quasi-bound states, a recently formulated steady-state ab initio laser theory (SALT) offers the possibility to take into account the spectral properties of the underlying gain transition, its position and linewidth, as well as incorporating an arbitrary pump profile. We will combine two theoretical approaches to characterize the lasing properties of PM lasers: for two-dimensional systems, the generalized Lorenz-Mie theory will obtain the resonant modes of the coupled molecules in an active medium described by SALT. Not only is then the theoretical description more complete, the use of an active medium provides additional parameters to control, engineer and harness the lasing properties of PM lasers for ultra-low threshold and directional single-mode emission. We will extend our recent study and present new results for a number of promising geometries. The authors acknowledge financial support from NSERC (Canada) and the CERC in Photonic Innovations of Y. Messaddeq.

  5. Van Hove singularities revisited

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dzyaloshinskii, I.

    1987-07-01

    Beginning with the work of Hirsch and Scalapino the importance of ln 2 -Van Hove singularity in T c -enhancement in La 2 CuO 4 -based compounds was realized, which is nicely reviewed by Rice. However, the theoretical treatment carried out before is incomplete. Two things were apparently not paid due attention to: interplay of particle-particle and particle-hole channels and Umklapp processes. In what follows a two-dimensional weak coupling model of LaCuO 4 will be solved exactly in the ln 2 -approximation. The result in the Hubbard limit (one bare charge) is that the system is unstable at any sign of interaction. Symmetry breaking moreover is pretty peculiar. Of course, there are separate singlet superconducting pairings in the pp-channel (attraction) and SDW (repulsion) and CDW (attraction) in the ph-channel. It is natural that Umklapps produce an SDW + CDW mixture at either sign of the interaction. What is unusual is that both the pp-ph interplay and the Umklapps give rise to a monster-coherent SS + SDW + CDW mixture, again at either sign of the bare charge. In the general model where all 4 charges involved are substantially different, the system might remain metallic. A more realistic approach which takes into account dopping in La-M-Cu-O and interlayer interaction provides at least a qualitative understanding of the experimental picture. 10 refs, 5 figs

  6. Achalasia: Treatment Options Revisited

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Willemijntje A Hoogerwerf

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of all current forms of treatment of achalasia is to enable the patient to eat without disabling symptoms such as dysphagia, regurgitation, coughing or choking. Historically, this has been accomplished by mechanical disruption of the lower esophageal sphincter fibres, either by means of pneumatic dilation (PD or by open surgical myotomy. The addition of laparoscopic myotomy and botulinum toxin (BTX injection to the therapeutic armamentarium has triggered a recent series of reviews to determine the optimal therapeutic approach. Both PD and BTX have excellent short term (less than three months efficacy in the majority of patients. New data have been published that suggest that PD and BTX (with repeat injections can potentially obtain long term efficacy. PD is still considered the first-line treatment by most physicians; its main disadvantage is risk of perforation. BTX injection is evolving as an excellent, safe option for patients who are considered high risk for more invasive procedures. Laparoscopic myotomy with combined antireflux surgery is an increasingly attractive option in younger patients with achalasia, but long term follow-up studies are required to establish its efficacy and the potential for reflux-related sequelae.

  7. The Fortios disks revisited

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    António M. Monge Soares

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available We have used EDXRF, Micro-PIXE and optical microscopy (metallographic analysis, complemented with SEM-EDS, to first determine the elemental content, and second, to identify the process used to join the components (disk, peripheral rod and tab of several Iron Age gold buttons. These have a very similar typology and were found at three archaeological sites in the South-Western part of the Iberian Peninsula. A set of 35 buttons from Castro dos Ratinhos (7, Outeiro da Cabeça (23 and Fortios (5 were analyzed and the results published in Trabajos de Prehistoria (Soares et al. 2010. Recently Perea et al. (2016 have published analyses of other 4 gold buttons from Fortios with the same purpose, but only using one technique, SEM-EDS. As they only analysed the rough surface layer, the results are neither effective nor reliable, taking into account the constraints associated with the technique, namely the small depth reached (< 2 ?m by the incident beam and, consequently, its sensitivity to the topography of the analyzed surface. Despite these constraints, they have accepted uncritically their results and, at the same time, question our own analyses and results and the interpretation we have made. Here we discuss the approach of Perea et al. in order to determine not only the elemental content of the Fortios gold buttons, but also to identify the joining process used in their manufacture.

  8. Kilburn High Road Revisited

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristina Capineri

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Drawing on John Agnew’s (1987 theoretical framework for the analysis of place (location, locale and sense of place and on Doreen Massey’s (1991 interpretation of Kilburn High Road (London, the contribution develops an analysis of the notion of place in the case study of Kilburn High Road by comparing the semantics emerging from Doreen Massey’s interpretation of Kilburn High Road in the late Nineties with those from a selection of noisy and unstructured volunteered geographic information collected from Flickr photos and Tweets harvested in 2014–2015. The comparison shows how sense of place is dynamic and changing over time and explores Kilburn High Road through the categories of location, locale and sense of place derived from the qualitative analysis of VGI content and annotations. The contribution shows how VGI can contribute to discovering the unique relationship between people and place which takes the form given by Doreen Massey to Kilburn High Road and then moves on to the many forms given by people experiencing Kilburn High Road through a photo, a Tweet or a simple narrative. Finally, the paper suggests that the analysis of VGI content can contribute to detect the relevant features of street life, from infrastructure to citizens’ perceptions, which should be taken into account for a more human-centered approach in planning or service management.

  9. Revisiting Appendicular Lump

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R S Bhandari

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: Appendicular lump is a well known sequalae of acute appendicitis encountered in 2-6% of patients. Successful management of appendicular lump is controversial with different approaches. As many controversies are arising regarding management of appendicular lump. The aim of this study was to find out the outcome and evaluate possible need of changing our management strategy of appendicular lump. METHODS: A retrospective analysis of the patients managed with appendicular lump were done. All the patients admitted with diagnosis of appendicular lump and managed between, over two and half years, were included in the study. All age groups and both sex were included. Any patients whose diagnosis was changed after initial diagnosis of appendicular lump were excluded from the study. RESULTS: Total 75 patients had appendicular lump suggesting 10% incidence. Age varied between 11-83 years with nearly equal incidence in both sexes. Majority had onset of symptoms between 2 to 14 days with an average of 4 days. Average stay was 3 to 4 days. During study period, 12 (16% came with recurrence and 13 (17% cases came for elective appendectomy. CONCLUSIONS: Based on our finding, it is not sufficient to change our classical management strategy of appendicular lump and suggests a need for long term prospective study in this very common clinical condition. KEYWORDS: appendicular lump, conservative management.

  10. Revisiting appendicular lump.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhandari, R S; Thakur, D K; Lakhey, P J; Singh, K P

    2010-01-01

    Appendicular lump is a well known sequalae of acute appendicitis encountered in 2-6% of patients. Successful management of appendicular lump is controversial with different approaches. As many controversies are arising regarding management of appendicular lump. The aim of this study was to find out the outcome and evaluate possible need of changing our management strategy of appendicular lump. A retrospective analysis of the patients managed with appendicular lump were done. All the patients admitted with diagnosis of appendicular lump and managed between, over two and half years, were included in the study. All age groups and both sex were included. Any patients whose diagnosis was changed after initial diagnosis of appendicular lump were excluded from the study. Total 75 patients had appendicular lump suggesting 10% incidence. Age varied between 11-83 years with nearly equal incidence in both sexes. Majority had onset of symptoms between 2 to 14 days with an average of 4 days. Average stay was 3 to 4 days. During study period, 12 (16%) came with recurrence and 13 (17%) cases came for elective appendectomy. Based on our finding, it is not sufficient to change our classical management strategy of appendicular lump and suggests a need for long term prospective study in this very common clinical condition.

  11. In silico model-based inference: a contemporary approach for hypothesis testing in network biology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klinke, David J

    2014-01-01

    Inductive inference plays a central role in the study of biological systems where one aims to increase their understanding of the system by reasoning backwards from uncertain observations to identify causal relationships among components of the system. These causal relationships are postulated from prior knowledge as a hypothesis or simply a model. Experiments are designed to test the model. Inferential statistics are used to establish a level of confidence in how well our postulated model explains the acquired data. This iterative process, commonly referred to as the scientific method, either improves our confidence in a model or suggests that we revisit our prior knowledge to develop a new model. Advances in technology impact how we use prior knowledge and data to formulate models of biological networks and how we observe cellular behavior. However, the approach for model-based inference has remained largely unchanged since Fisher, Neyman and Pearson developed the ideas in the early 1900s that gave rise to what is now known as classical statistical hypothesis (model) testing. Here, I will summarize conventional methods for model-based inference and suggest a contemporary approach to aid in our quest to discover how cells dynamically interpret and transmit information for therapeutic aims that integrates ideas drawn from high performance computing, Bayesian statistics, and chemical kinetics. © 2014 American Institute of Chemical Engineers.

  12. The power reinforcement framework revisited

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jeppe; Andersen, Kim Normann; Danziger, James N.

    2016-01-01

    Whereas digital technologies are often depicted as being capable of disrupting long-standing power structures and facilitating new governance mechanisms, the power reinforcement framework suggests that information and communications technologies tend to strengthen existing power arrangements within...... public organizations. This article revisits the 30-yearold power reinforcement framework by means of an empirical analysis on the use of mobile technology in a large-scale programme in Danish public sector home care. It explores whether and to what extent administrative management has controlled decision......-making and gained most benefits from mobile technology use, relative to the effects of the technology on the street-level workers who deliver services. Current mobile technology-in-use might be less likely to be power reinforcing because it is far more decentralized and individualized than the mainly expert...

  13. Quantum potentiality revisited

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaeger, Gregg

    2017-10-01

    Heisenberg offered an interpretation of the quantum state which made use of a quantitative version of an earlier notion, , of Aristotle by both referring to it using its Latin name, potentia, and identifying its qualitative aspect with . The relationship between this use and Aristotle's notion was not made by Heisenberg in full detail, beyond noting their common character: that of signifying the system's objective capacity to be found later to possess a property in actuality. For such actualization, Heisenberg required measurement to have taken place, an interaction with external systems that disrupts the otherwise independent, natural evolution of the quantum system. The notion of state actualization was later taken up by others, including Shimony, in the search for a law-like measurement process. Yet, the relation of quantum potentiality to Aristotle's original notion has been viewed as mainly terminological, even by those who used it thus. Here, I reconsider the relation of Heisenberg's notion to Aristotle's and show that it can be explicated in greater specificity than Heisenberg did. This is accomplished through the careful consideration of the role of potentia in physical causation and explanation, and done in order to provide a fuller understanding of this aspect of Heisenberg's approach to quantum mechanics. Most importantly, it is pointed out that Heisenberg's requirement of an external intervention during measurement that disrupts the otherwise independent, natural evolution of the quantum system is in accord with Aristotle's characterization of spontaneous causation. Thus, the need for a teleological understanding of the actualization of potentia, an often assumed requirement that has left this fundamental notion neglected, is seen to be spurious. This article is part of the themed issue `Second quantum revolution: foundational questions'.

  14. Asymmetric Gepner models (revisited)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gato-Rivera, B. [NIKHEF Theory Group, Kruislaan 409, 1098 SJ Amsterdam (Netherlands)] [Instituto de Fisica Fundamental, CSIC, Serrano 123, Madrid 28006 (Spain); Schellekens, A.N., E-mail: t58@nikhef.n [NIKHEF Theory Group, Kruislaan 409, 1098 SJ Amsterdam (Netherlands)] [Instituto de Fisica Fundamental, CSIC, Serrano 123, Madrid 28006 (Spain)] [IMAPP, Radboud Universiteit, Nijmegen (Netherlands)

    2010-12-11

    We reconsider a class of heterotic string theories studied in 1989, based on tensor products of N=2 minimal models with asymmetric simple current invariants. We extend this analysis from (2,2) and (1,2) spectra to (0,2) spectra with SO(10) broken to the Standard Model. In the latter case the spectrum must contain fractionally charged particles. We find that in nearly all cases at least some of them are massless. However, we identify a large subclass where the fractional charges are at worst half-integer, and often vector-like. The number of families is very often reduced in comparison to the 1989 results, but there are no new tensor combinations yielding three families. All tensor combinations turn out to fall into two classes: those where the number of families is always divisible by three, and those where it is never divisible by three. We find an empirical rule to determine the class, which appears to extend beyond minimal N=2 tensor products. We observe that distributions of physical quantities such as the number of families, singlets and mirrors have an interesting tendency towards smaller values as the gauge groups approaches the Standard Model. We compare our results with an analogous class of free fermionic models. This displays similar features, but with less resolution. Finally we present a complete scan of the three family models based on the triply-exceptional combination (1,16{sup *},16{sup *},16{sup *}) identified originally by Gepner. We find 1220 distinct three family spectra in this case, forming 610 mirror pairs. About half of them have the gauge group SU(3)xSU(2){sub L}xSU(2){sub R}xU(1){sup 5}, the theoretical minimum, and many others are trinification models.

  15. Quantum potentiality revisited.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaeger, Gregg

    2017-11-13

    Heisenberg offered an interpretation of the quantum state which made use of a quantitative version of an earlier notion, [Formula: see text], of Aristotle by both referring to it using its Latin name, potentia , and identifying its qualitative aspect with [Formula: see text] The relationship between this use and Aristotle's notion was not made by Heisenberg in full detail, beyond noting their common character: that of signifying the system's objective capacity to be found later to possess a property in actuality. For such actualization, Heisenberg required measurement to have taken place, an interaction with external systems that disrupts the otherwise independent, natural evolution of the quantum system. The notion of state actualization was later taken up by others, including Shimony, in the search for a law-like measurement process. Yet, the relation of quantum potentiality to Aristotle's original notion has been viewed as mainly terminological, even by those who used it thus. Here, I reconsider the relation of Heisenberg's notion to Aristotle's and show that it can be explicated in greater specificity than Heisenberg did. This is accomplished through the careful consideration of the role of potentia in physical causation and explanation, and done in order to provide a fuller understanding of this aspect of Heisenberg's approach to quantum mechanics. Most importantly, it is pointed out that Heisenberg's requirement of an external intervention during measurement that disrupts the otherwise independent, natural evolution of the quantum system is in accord with Aristotle's characterization of spontaneous causation. Thus, the need for a teleological understanding of the actualization of potentia, an often assumed requirement that has left this fundamental notion neglected, is seen to be spurious.This article is part of the themed issue 'Second quantum revolution: foundational questions'. © 2017 The Author(s).

  16. Problems of causality in environmental penal law. The relevance of causality problems on the environmental sector from the view of penal law. Kausalitaetsprobleme im Umweltstrafrecht. Die strafrechtliche Relevanz der Schwierigkeiten naturwissenschaftlicher Kausalfeststellung im Umweltbereich

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kleine-Cosack, E.

    1988-01-01

    The 'classic' elements of an offence against human health or property are not applicable in environmental law, owing to problems of causality. The new environmental penal law therefore focuses on the 'capability' of any act to damage human health, animal health, vegetation, water, air, or soil. It remarks doubtful whether this approach is more efficient. Further, there is still the problem of assessing damage. The book discusses causality problems in environmental penal law. Causality in a given case is discussed from the view of general causality laws and problems of proof. Other possible causes of damage must be excluded. The author discusses: Interdependences between scientific and penal causality, the problems of successful and potential offences, the relationship between individual and universal objects of legal protection, and procedural issues (e.g. the binding effect of experts' opinions on a given subject). (orig./HSCH).

  17. Causal Meta-Analysis : Methodology and Applications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bax, L.J.

    2009-01-01

    Meta-analysis is a statistical method to summarize research data from multiple studies in a quantitative manner. This dissertation addresses a number of methodological topics in causal meta-analysis and reports the development and validation of meta-analysis software. In the first (methodological)

  18. Information-causality and extremal tripartite correlations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, Tzyh Haur; Cavalcanti, Daniel; Almeida, Mafalda L; Teo, Colin; Scarani, Valerio

    2012-01-01

    We study the principle of information-causality (IC) in the presence of extremal no-signaling correlations on a tripartite scenario. We prove that all, except one, of the non-local correlations lead to violation of IC. The remaining non-quantum correlation is shown to satisfy any bipartite physical principle. (paper)

  19. Comments: Causal Interpretations of Mediation Effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jo, Booil; Stuart, Elizabeth A.

    2012-01-01

    The authors thank Dr. Lindsay Page for providing a nice illustration of the use of the principal stratification framework to define causal effects, and a Bayesian model for effect estimation. They hope that her well-written article will help expose education researchers to these concepts and methods, and move the field of mediation analysis in…

  20. Inductive reasoning about causally transmitted properties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shafto, Patrick; Kemp, Charles; Bonawitz, Elizabeth Baraff; Coley, John D; Tenenbaum, Joshua B

    2008-11-01

    Different intuitive theories constrain and guide inferences in different contexts. Formalizing simple intuitive theories as probabilistic processes operating over structured representations, we present a new computational model of category-based induction about causally transmitted properties. A first experiment demonstrates undergraduates' context-sensitive use of taxonomic and food web knowledge to guide reasoning about causal transmission and shows good qualitative agreement between model predictions and human inferences. A second experiment demonstrates strong quantitative and qualitative fits to inferences about a more complex artificial food web. A third experiment investigates human reasoning about complex novel food webs where species have known taxonomic relations. Results demonstrate a double-dissociation between the predictions of our causal model and a related taxonomic model [Kemp, C., & Tenenbaum, J. B. (2003). Learning domain structures. In Proceedings of the 25th annual conference of the cognitive science society]: the causal model predicts human inferences about diseases but not genes, while the taxonomic model predicts human inferences about genes but not diseases. We contrast our framework with previous models of category-based induction and previous formal instantiations of intuitive theories, and outline challenges in developing a complete model of context-sensitive reasoning.

  1. Exploring Causal Models of Educational Achievement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parkerson, Jo Ann; And Others

    1984-01-01

    This article evaluates five causal model of educational productivity applied to learning science in a sample of 882 fifth through eighth graders. Each model explores the relationship between achievement and a combination of eight constructs: home environment, peer group, media, ability, social environment, time on task, motivation, and…

  2. Sequential causal learning in humans and rats

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lu, H.; Rojas, R.R.; Beckers, T.; Yuille, A.; Love, B.C.; McRae, K.; Sloutsky, V.M.

    2008-01-01

    Recent experiments (Beckers, De Houwer, Pineño, & Miller, 2005;Beckers, Miller, De Houwer, & Urushihara, 2006) have shown that pretraining with unrelated cues can dramatically influence the performance of humans in a causal learning paradigm and rats in a standard Pavlovian conditioning paradigm.

  3. The Causal Foundations of Structural Equation Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-02-16

    and Baumrind (1993).” This, together with the steady influx of statisticians into the field, has left SEM re- searchers in a quandary about the...considerations. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 51 1173–1182. Baumrind , D. (1993). Specious causal attributions in social sciences: The

  4. Causal Measurement Models: Can Criticism Stimulate Clarification?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Markus, Keith A.

    2016-01-01

    In their 2016 work, Aguirre-Urreta et al. provided a contribution to the literature on causal measurement models that enhances clarity and stimulates further thinking. Aguirre-Urreta et al. presented a form of statistical identity involving mapping onto the portion of the parameter space involving the nomological net, relationships between the…

  5. A quantum probability model of causal reasoning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer S Trueblood

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available People can often outperform statistical methods and machine learning algorithms in situations that involve making inferences about the relationship between causes and effects. While people are remarkably good at causal reasoning in many situations, there are several instances where they deviate from expected responses. This paper examines three situations where judgments related to causal inference problems produce unexpected results and describes a quantum inference model based on the axiomatic principles of quantum probability theory that can explain these effects. Two of the three phenomena arise from the comparison of predictive judgments (i.e., the conditional probability of an effect given a cause with diagnostic judgments (i.e., the conditional probability of a cause given an effect. The third phenomenon is a new finding examining order effects in predictive causal judgments. The quantum inference model uses the notion of incompatibility among different causes to account for all three phenomena. Psychologically, the model assumes that individuals adopt different points of view when thinking about different causes. The model provides good fits to the data and offers a coherent account for all three causal reasoning effects thus proving to be a viable new candidate for modeling human judgment.

  6. A Causal Model of Faculty Turnover Intentions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smart, John C.

    1990-01-01

    A causal model assesses the relative influence of individual attributes, institutional characteristics, contextual-work environment variables, and multiple measures of job satisfaction on faculty intentions to leave their current institutions. Factors considered include tenure status, age, institutional status, governance style, organizational…

  7. Catastrophizing and Causal Beliefs in Whiplash

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Buitenhuis, J.; de Jong, P. J.; Jaspers, J. P. C.; Groothoff, J. W.

    2008-01-01

    Study Design. Prospective cohort study. Objective. This study investigates the role of pain catastrophizing and causal beliefs with regard to severity and persistence of neck complaints after motor vehicle accidents. Summary of Background Data. In previous research on low back pain, somatoform

  8. Probable autoimmune causal relationship between periodontitis and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Periodontitis is a multifactorial disease with microbial dental plaque as the initiator of periodontal disease. However, the manifestation and progression of the disease is influenced by a wide variety of determinants and factors. The strongest type of causal relationship is the association of systemic and periodontal disease.

  9. Causality and analyticity in quantum fields theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iagolnitzer, D.

    1992-01-01

    This is a presentation of results on the causal and analytical structure of Green functions and on the collision amplitudes in fields theories, for massive particles of one type, with a positive mass and a zero spin value. (A.B.)

  10. Inductive Reasoning about Causally Transmitted Properties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shafto, Patrick; Kemp, Charles; Bonawitz, Elizabeth Baraff; Coley, John D.; Tenenbaum, Joshua B.

    2008-01-01

    Different intuitive theories constrain and guide inferences in different contexts. Formalizing simple intuitive theories as probabilistic processes operating over structured representations, we present a new computational model of category-based induction about causally transmitted properties. A first experiment demonstrates undergraduates'…

  11. Black Hole Complementarity and Violation of Causality

    OpenAIRE

    Rozenblit, Moshe

    2017-01-01

    Analysis of a massive shell collapsing on a solid sphere shows that black hole complementarity (BHC) violates causality in its effort to save information conservation. In particular, this note describes a hypothetical contraption based on BHC that would allow the transfer of information from the future to the present.

  12. Encoding dependence in Bayesian causal networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bayesian networks (BNs) represent complex, uncertain spatio-temporal dynamics by propagation of conditional probabilities between identifiable states with a testable causal interaction model. Typically, they assume random variables are discrete in time and space with a static network structure that ...

  13. Scalar field Green functions on causal sets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nomaan Ahmed, S; Surya, Sumati; Dowker, Fay

    2017-01-01

    We examine the validity and scope of Johnston’s models for scalar field retarded Green functions on causal sets in 2 and 4 dimensions. As in the continuum, the massive Green function can be obtained from the massless one, and hence the key task in causal set theory is to first identify the massless Green function. We propose that the 2d model provides a Green function for the massive scalar field on causal sets approximated by any topologically trivial 2-dimensional spacetime. We explicitly demonstrate that this is indeed the case in a Riemann normal neighbourhood. In 4d the model can again be used to provide a Green function for the massive scalar field in a Riemann normal neighbourhood which we compare to Bunch and Parker’s continuum Green function. We find that the same prescription can also be used for de Sitter spacetime and the conformally flat patch of anti-de Sitter spacetime. Our analysis then allows us to suggest a generalisation of Johnston’s model for the Green function for a causal set approximated by 3-dimensional flat spacetime. (paper)

  14. Are bruxism and the bite causally related?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lobbezoo, F.; Ahlberg, J.; Manfredini, D.; Winocur, E.

    2012-01-01

    In the dental profession, the belief that bruxism and dental (mal-)occlusion (‘the bite’) are causally related is widespread. The aim of this review was to critically assess the available literature on this topic. A PubMed search of the English-language literature, using the query ‘Bruxism [Majr

  15. Causal fermion systems: A quantum space-time emerging from an action principle

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Finster, Felix [Mathematics Department, University of Regensburg (Germany)

    2013-07-01

    Causal fermion systems provide a general framework for the formulation of relativistic quantum theory. A particular feature is that space-time is a secondary object which emerges by minimizing an action. The aim of the talk is to give a simple introduction, with an emphasis on conceptual issues. We begin with Dirac spinors in Minkowski space and explain how to formulate the system as a causal fermion system. As an example in curved space-time, we then consider spinors on a globally hyperbolic space-time. An example on a space-time lattice illustrates that causal fermion systems also allow for the description of discrete space-times. These examples lead us to the general definition of causal fermion systems. The causal action principle is introduced. We outline how for a given minimizer, one has notions of causality, connection and curvature, which generalize the classical notions and give rise to a proposal for a ''quantum geometry''. In the last part of the talk, we outline how quantum field theory can be described in this framework and discuss the relation to other approaches.

  16. How causal analysis can reveal autonomy in models of biological systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marshall, William; Kim, Hyunju; Walker, Sara I.; Tononi, Giulio; Albantakis, Larissa

    2017-11-01

    Standard techniques for studying biological systems largely focus on their dynamical or, more recently, their informational properties, usually taking either a reductionist or holistic perspective. Yet, studying only individual system elements or the dynamics of the system as a whole disregards the organizational structure of the system-whether there are subsets of elements with joint causes or effects, and whether the system is strongly integrated or composed of several loosely interacting components. Integrated information theory offers a theoretical framework to (1) investigate the compositional cause-effect structure of a system and to (2) identify causal borders of highly integrated elements comprising local maxima of intrinsic cause-effect power. Here we apply this comprehensive causal analysis to a Boolean network model of the fission yeast (Schizosaccharomyces pombe) cell cycle. We demonstrate that this biological model features a non-trivial causal architecture, whose discovery may provide insights about the real cell cycle that could not be gained from holistic or reductionist approaches. We also show how some specific properties of this underlying causal architecture relate to the biological notion of autonomy. Ultimately, we suggest that analysing the causal organization of a system, including key features like intrinsic control and stable causal borders, should prove relevant for distinguishing life from non-life, and thus could also illuminate the origin of life problem. This article is part of the themed issue 'Reconceptualizing the origins of life'.

  17. How can we cope with the complexity of the environment? A "Learning by modelling" approach using qualitative reasoning for developing causal models and simulations with focus on Sustainable River Catchment Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poppe, Michaela; Zitek, Andreas; Salles, Paulo; Bredeweg, Bert; Muhar, Susanne

    2010-05-01

    The education system needs strategies to attract future scientists and practitioners. There is an alarming decline in the number of students choosing science subjects. Reasons for this include the perceived complexity and the lack of effective cognitive tools that enable learners to acquire the expertise in a way that fits its qualitative nature. The DynaLearn project utilises a "Learning by modelling" approach to deliver an individualised and engaging cognitive tool for acquiring conceptual knowledge. The modelling approach is based on qualitative reasoning, a research area within artificial intelligence, and allows for capturing and simulating qualitative systems knowledge. Educational activities within the DynaLearn software address topics at different levels of complexity, depending on the educational goals and settings. DynaLearn uses virtual characters in the learning environment as agents for engaging and motivating the students during their modelling exercise. The DynaLearn software represents an interactive learning environment in which learners are in control of their learning activities. The software is able to coach them individually based on their current progress, their knowledge needs and learning goals. Within the project 70 expert models on different environmental issues covering seven core topics (Earth Systems and Resources, The Living World, Human population, Land and Water Use, Energy Resources and Consumption, Pollution, and Global Changes) will be delivered. In the context of the core topic "Land and Water Use" the Institute of Hydrobiology and Aquatic Ecosystem Management has developed a model on Sustainable River Catchment Management. River systems with their catchments have been tremendously altered due to human pressures with serious consequences for the ecological integrity of riverine landscapes. The operation of hydropower plants, the implementation of flood protection measures, the regulation of flow and sediment regime and intensive

  18. Causal reasoning and models of cognitive tasks for naval nuclear power plant operators; Raisonnement causal et modelisation de l`activite cognitive d`operateurs de chaufferie nucleaire navale

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Salazar-Ferrer, P

    1995-06-01

    In complex industrial process control, causal reasoning appears as a major component in operators` cognitive tasks. It is tightly linked to diagnosis, prediction of normal and failure states, and explanation. This work provides a detailed review of literature in causal reasoning. A synthesis is proposed as a model of causal reasoning in process control. This model integrates distinct approaches in Cognitive Science: especially qualitative physics, Bayesian networks, knowledge-based systems, and cognitive psychology. Our model defines a framework for the analysis of causal human errors in simulated naval nuclear power plant fault management. Through the methodological framework of critical incident analysis we define a classification of errors and difficulties linked to causal reasoning. This classification is based on shallow characteristics of causal reasoning. As an origin of these errors, more elementary component activities in causal reasoning are identified. The applications cover the field of functional specification for man-machine interfaces, operators support systems design as well as nuclear safety. In addition of this study, we integrate the model of causal reasoning in a model of cognitive task in process control. (authors). 106 refs., 49 figs., 8 tabs.

  19. Does Causality Matter More Now? Increase in the Proportion of Causal Language in English Texts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iliev, Rumen; Axelrod, Robert

    2016-05-01

    The vast majority of the work on culture and cognition has focused on cross-cultural comparisons, largely ignoring the dynamic aspects of culture. In this article, we provide a diachronic analysis of causal cognition over time. We hypothesized that the increased role of education, science, and technology in Western societies should be accompanied by greater attention to causal connections. To test this hypothesis, we compared word frequencies in English texts from different time periods and found an increase in the use of causal language of about 40% over the past two centuries. The observed increase was not attributable to general language effects or to changing semantics of causal words. We also found that there was a consistent difference between the 19th and the 20th centuries, and that the increase happened mainly in the 20th century. © The Author(s) 2016.

  20. Time-varying causality between energy consumption, CO2 emissions, and economic growth: evidence from US states.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tzeremes, Panayiotis

    2018-02-01

    This study is the first attempt to investigate the relationship between CO 2 emissions, energy consumption, and economic growth at a state level, for the 50 US states, through a time-varying causality approach using annual data over the periods 1960-2010. The time-varying causality test facilitates the better understanding of the causal relationship between the covariates owing to the fact that it might identify causalities when the time-constant hypothesis is rejected. Our findings indicate the existence of a time-varying causality at the state level. Specifically, the results probe eight bidirectional time-varying causalities between energy consumption and CO 2 emission, six cases of two-way time-varying causalities between economic growth and energy consumption, and five bidirectional time-varying causalities between economic growth and CO 2 emission. Moreover, we examine the traditional environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis for the states. Notably, our results do not endorse the validity of the EKC, albeit the majority of states support an inverted N-shaped relationship. Lastly, we can identify multiple policy implications based on the empirical results.

  1. Prenatal nutrition, epigenetics and schizophrenia risk: can we test causal effects?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirkbride, James B; Susser, Ezra; Kundakovic, Marija; Kresovich, Jacob K; Davey Smith, George; Relton, Caroline L

    2012-06-01

    We posit that maternal prenatal nutrition can influence offspring schizophrenia risk via epigenetic effects. In this article, we consider evidence that prenatal nutrition is linked to epigenetic outcomes in offspring and schizophrenia in offspring, and that schizophrenia is associated with epigenetic changes. We focus upon one-carbon metabolism as a mediator of the pathway between perturbed prenatal nutrition and the subsequent risk of schizophrenia. Although post-mortem human studies demonstrate DNA methylation changes in brains of people with schizophrenia, such studies cannot establish causality. We suggest a testable hypothesis that utilizes a novel two-step Mendelian randomization approach, to test the component parts of the proposed causal pathway leading from prenatal nutritional exposure to schizophrenia. Applied here to a specific example, such an approach is applicable for wider use to strengthen causal inference of the mediating role of epigenetic factors linking exposures to health outcomes in population-based studies.

  2. Functional clustering of time series gene expression data by Granger causality

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Background A common approach for time series gene expression data analysis includes the clustering of genes with similar expression patterns throughout time. Clustered gene expression profiles point to the joint contribution of groups of genes to a particular cellular process. However, since genes belong to intricate networks, other features, besides comparable expression patterns, should provide additional information for the identification of functionally similar genes. Results In this study we perform gene clustering through the identification of Granger causality between and within sets of time series gene expression data. Granger causality is based on the idea that the cause of an event cannot come after its consequence. Conclusions This kind of analysis can be used as a complementary approach for functional clustering, wherein genes would be clustered not solely based on their expression similarity but on their topological proximity built according to the intensity of Granger causality among them. PMID:23107425

  3. Causal knowledge and the development of inductive reasoning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bright, Aimée K; Feeney, Aidan

    2014-06-01

    We explored the development of sensitivity to causal relations in children's inductive reasoning. Children (5-, 8-, and 12-year-olds) and adults were given trials in which they decided whether a property known to be possessed by members of one category was also possessed by members of (a) a taxonomically related category or (b) a causally related category. The direction of the causal link was either predictive (prey→predator) or diagnostic (predator→prey), and the property that participants reasoned about established either a taxonomic or causal context. There was a causal asymmetry effect across all age groups, with more causal choices when the causal link was predictive than when it was diagnostic. Furthermore, context-sensitive causal reasoning showed a curvilinear development, with causal choices being most frequent for 8-year-olds regardless of context. Causal inductions decreased thereafter because 12-year-olds and adults made more taxonomic choices when reasoning in the taxonomic context. These findings suggest that simple causal relations may often be the default knowledge structure in young children's inductive reasoning, that sensitivity to causal direction is present early on, and that children over-generalize their causal knowledge when reasoning. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. The causal link between energy and output growth: Evidence from Markov switching Granger causality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kandemir Kocaaslan, Ozge

    2013-01-01

    In this paper we empirically investigate the causal link between energy consumption and economic growth employing a Markov switching Granger causality analysis. We carry out our investigation using annual U.S. real GDP, total final energy consumption and total primary energy consumption data which cover the period between 1968 and 2010. We find that there are significant changes in the causal relation between energy consumption and economic growth over the sample period under investigation. Our results show that total final energy consumption and total primary energy consumption have significant predictive content for real economic activity in the U.S. economy. Furthermore, the causality running from energy consumption to output growth seems to be strongly apparent particularly during the periods of economic downturn and energy crisis. We also document that output growth has predictive power in explaining total energy consumption. Furthermore, the power of output growth in predicting total energy consumption is found to diminish after the mid of 1980s. - Highlights: • Total energy consumption has predictive content for real economic activity. • The causality from energy to output growth is apparent in the periods of recession. • The causality from energy to output growth is strong in the periods of energy crisis. • Output growth has predictive power in explaining total energy consumption. • The power of output growth in explaining energy diminishes after the mid of 1980s

  5. Is the tourism-economic growth nexus time-varying? Bootstrap rolling-window causality analysis for the top ten tourist destinations

    OpenAIRE

    Shahbaz, Muhammad; Ferrer, Román; Hussain Shahzad, Syed Jawad; Haouas, Ilham

    2017-01-01

    This paper explores the time-varying causal nexus between tourism development and economic growth for the top ten tourist destinations in the world, namely China, France, Germany, Italy, Mexico, the Russian Federation, Spain, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States of America, over the period 1990-2015. To that end, a bootstrap rolling window Granger causality approach based on the modified Granger causality test developed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995) and Dolado and Lütkepohl (1996), ...

  6. Revisiting the melting temperature of NpO2 and the challenges associated with high temperature actinide compound measurements

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Böhler, R.; Welland, M.J.; De Bruycker, F.; Boboridis, K.; Janssen, A.; Eloirdi, R.; Konings, R.J.M.; Manara, D.

    2012-01-01

    This work revisits the melting behaviour of neptunium dioxide, an actinide compound which can be produced in the nuclear fuel during operation, and which has an important impact on the nuclear fuel and waste radioactivity especially on the very long term. The present experimental approach employs

  7. Energy consumption and economic growth in China: A multivariate causality test

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Yuan; Wang Yichen; Zhou Jing; Zhu Xiaodong; Lu Genfa

    2011-01-01

    This study takes a fresh look at the direction of causality between energy consumption and economic growth in China during the period from 1972 to 2006, using a multivariate cointegration approach. Given the weakness associated with the bivariate causality framework, the current study performs a multivariate causality framework by incorporating capital and labor variables into the model between energy consumption and economic growth based on neo-classical aggregate production theory. Using the recently developed autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach, a long-run equilibrium cointegration relationship has been found to exist between economic growth and the explanatory variables: energy consumption, capital and employment. Empirical results reveal that the long-run parameter of energy consumption on economic growth in China is approximately 0.15, through a long-run static solution of the estimated ARDL model, and that for the short-run is approximately 0.12 by the error correction model. The study also indicates the existence of short-run and long-run causality running from energy consumption, capital and employment to economic growth. The estimation results imply that energy serves as an important source of economic growth, thus more vigorous energy use and economic development strategies should be adopted for China. - Highlights: → Cointegration is only present when real GDP is the dependent variable. →The long-run causality running from energy consumption to economic growth. →China is an energy dependent economy.

  8. Beliefs About the Causal Structure of the Self-Concept Determine Which Changes Disrupt Personal Identity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Stephanie Y; Urminsky, Oleg; Bartels, Daniel M

    2016-10-01

    Personal identity is an important determinant of behavior, yet how people mentally represent their self-concepts and their concepts of other people is not well understood. In the current studies, we examined the age-old question of what makes people who they are. We propose a novel approach to identity that suggests that the answer lies in people's beliefs about how the features of identity (e.g., memories, moral qualities, personality traits) are causally related to each other. We examined the impact of the causal centrality of a feature, a key determinant of the extent to which a feature defines a concept, on judgments of identity continuity. We found support for this approach in three experiments using both measured and manipulated causal centrality. For judgments both of one's self and of others, we found that some features are perceived to be more causally central than others and that changes in such causally central features are believed to be more disruptive to identity.

  9. Cystatin C Is Not Causally Related to Coronary Artery Disease.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrik Svensson-Färbom

    Full Text Available Strong and independent associations between plasma concentration of cystatin C and risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD suggests causal involvement of cystatin C.The aim of our study was to assess whether there is a causal relationship between plasma concentration of cystatin C and risk of coronary artery disease (CAD using a Mendelian Randomization approach.We estimated the strength of association of plasma cystatin C on CAD risk and the strength of association of the strongest GWAS derived cystatin C SNP (rs13038305 on plasma cystatin C in the population-based Malmö Diet and Cancer Study (MDC and thereafter the association between rs13038305 and CAD in the MDC (3200 cases of CAD and 24418 controls and CARDIOGRAM (22233 cases of CAD and 64762 controls.Each standard deviation (SD increment of plasma cystatin C was associated with increased risk of CAD (OR = 1.20, 95% CI 1.07-1.34 after full adjustment. Each copy of the major allele of rs13038305 was associated with 0.34 SD higher plasma concentration of cystatin C (P98% to detect a significant relationship between rs13038305 and CAD in MDC and CARDIOGRAM pooled. The odds ratio for CAD (per copy of the major rs13038305 allele was 1.00 (0.94-1.07; P = 0.92 in MDC, 0.99 (0.96-1.03; P = 0.84 in CARDIOGRAM and 1.00 (0.97-1.03; P = 0.83 in MDC and CARDIOGRAM pooled.Genetic elevation of plasma cystatin C is not related to altered risk of CAD, suggesting that there is no causal relationship between plasma cystatin C and CAD. Rather, the association between cystatin C and CAD appears to be due to the association of eGFR and CAD.

  10. Elements of Causal Inference: Foundations and Learning Algorithms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Peters, Jonas Martin; Janzing, Dominik; Schölkopf, Bernhard

    A concise and self-contained introduction to causal inference, increasingly important in data science and machine learning......A concise and self-contained introduction to causal inference, increasingly important in data science and machine learning...

  11. The causal relationship between Foreign Direct Investment (FDI ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The causal relationship between Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and the ... of selected west African countries: Panel ARDL/Granger Causality Analysis. ... among this developing countries and an important revelation for policy implication.

  12. Revisiting tourist behavior via destination brand worldness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Murat Kayak

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Taking tourists’ perspective rather than destination offerings as its core concept, this study introduces “perceived destination brand worldness” as a variable. Perceived destination brand worldness is defined as the positive perception that a tourist has of a country that is visited by tourists from all over the world. Then, the relationship between perceived destination brand worldness and intention to revisit is analyzed using partial least squares regression. This empirical study selects Taiwanese tourists as its sample, and the results show that perceived destination brand worldness is a direct predictor of intention to revisit. In light of these empirical findings and observations, practical and theoretical implications are discussed.

  13. Revisiting the returns-volume relationship: Time variation, alternative measures and the financial crisis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, Steve; Watson, Duncan

    2017-03-01

    Following its introduction in the seminal study of Osborne (1959), a voluminous literature has emerged examining the returns-volume relationship for financial assets. The present paper revisits this relationship in an examination of the FTSE100 which extends the existing literature in two ways. First, alternative daily measures of the FTSE100 index are used to create differing returns and absolute returns series to employ in an examination of returns-volume causality. Second, rolling regression analysis is utilised to explore potential time variation in the returns-volume relationship. The findings obtained depict a hitherto unconsidered complexity in this relationship with the type of returns series considered and financial crisis found to be significant underlying factors. The implications of the newly derived results for both the understanding of the nature of the returns-volume relationship and the development of theories in connection to it are discussed.

  14. Revisiting Stock Market Integration Pre-Post Subprime Mortgage Crisis: Insight From BRIC Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chin-Hong Puah

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available This study revisits the long-run relationships and short-run dynamic causal linkages among BRIC stock market, with the particular attention to the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis. Extending related empirical studies, comparative analyses of pre-crisis, and post-crisis periods were conducted to comprehensively evaluate how stock market integration was affected by financial crises. In general, after employing cointegration test and VAR test, the results reveal the increase of stock market integration in BRICs after the subprime crisis. The evidence also found that China stock market is the most influential among the BRICs, in which China stock market has the ability to Granger cause the other three BRICs member countries. An important implication of our findings is that the degree of integration among countries tends to change over time, especially around periods marked by financial crises.

  15. The Hankel transform of causal distributions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manuel A. Aguirre T.

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available In this note we evaluate the unidimensional distributional Hankel transform of \\dfrac{x^{\\alpha-1}_{+}}{\\Gamma^{\\alpha}},\\dfrac{x^{\\alpha-1}_{-}}{\\Gamma^{\\alpha}},dfrac{|x|^{\\alpha-1}}{\\Gamma^{\\frac{\\alpha}{2}}},dfrac{|x|^{\\alpha-1}sgn(x}{\\Gamma^{\\frac{\\alpha +1}{2}}} and (x± i0^{\\alpha-1} and then we extend the formulae to certain kinds of n-dimensional distributions calles "causal" and "anti-causal" distributions. We evaluate the distributional Handel transform of \\dfrac{(m^2+P^{\\alpha -1}_{-}}{\\Gamma^{(\\alpha} }, \\dfrac{|m^2+P|^{\\alpha -1}_{-}}{\\Gamma^{(\\frac{\\alpha}{2}}}, \\dfrac{|m^2+P|^{\\alpha -1}sgn(m^2+P}{\\Gamma (\\frac{\\alpha +1}{2 }} and (m^2+P±i0^{\\alpha-1}

  16. A new spin on causality constraints

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hartman, Thomas; Jain, Sachin; Kundu, Sandipan [Department of Physics, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York (United States)

    2016-10-26

    Causality in a shockwave state is related to the analytic properties of a four-point correlation function. Extending recent results for scalar probes, we show that this constrains the couplings of the stress tensor to light spinning operators in conformal field theory, and interpret these constraints in terms of the interaction with null energy. For spin-1 and spin-2 conserved currents in four dimensions, the resulting inequalities are a subset of the Hofman-Maldacena conditions for positive energy deposition. It is well known that energy conditions in holographic theories are related to causality on the gravity side; our results make a connection on the CFT side, and extend it to non-holographic theories.

  17. Reciprocity, passivity and causality in Willis materials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muhlestein, Michael B; Sieck, Caleb F; Alù, Andrea; Haberman, Michael R

    2016-10-01

    Materials that require coupling between the stress-strain and momentum-velocity constitutive relations were first proposed by Willis (Willis 1981 Wave Motion 3 , 1-11. (doi:10.1016/0165-2125(81)90008-1)) and are now known as elastic materials of the Willis type, or simply Willis materials. As coupling between these two constitutive equations is a generalization of standard elastodynamic theory, restrictions on the physically admissible material properties for Willis materials should be similarly generalized. This paper derives restrictions imposed on the material properties of Willis materials when they are assumed to be reciprocal, passive and causal. Considerations of causality and low-order dispersion suggest an alternative formulation of the standard Willis equations. The alternative formulation provides improved insight into the subwavelength physical behaviour leading to Willis material properties and is amenable to time-domain analyses. Finally, the results initially obtained for a generally elastic material are specialized to the acoustic limit.

  18. Granger-Causality Maps of Diffusion Processes

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Wahl, B.; Feudel, U.; Hlinka, Jaroslav; Wächter, M.; Peinke, J.; Freund, J.A.

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 93, č. 2 16 February (2016), č. článku 022213. ISSN 2470-0045 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-23940S; GA MZd(CZ) NV15-29835A Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : Granger causality * stochastic process * diffusion process * nonlinear dynamical systems Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 2.366, year: 2016

  19. Structure induction in diagnostic causal reasoning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meder, Björn; Mayrhofer, Ralf; Waldmann, Michael R

    2014-07-01

    Our research examines the normative and descriptive adequacy of alternative computational models of diagnostic reasoning from single effects to single causes. Many theories of diagnostic reasoning are based on the normative assumption that inferences from an effect to its cause should reflect solely the empirically observed conditional probability of cause given effect. We argue against this assumption, as it neglects alternative causal structures that may have generated the sample data. Our structure induction model of diagnostic reasoning takes into account the uncertainty regarding the underlying causal structure. A key prediction of the model is that diagnostic judgments should not only reflect the empirical probability of cause given effect but should also depend on the reasoner's beliefs about the existence and strength of the link between cause and effect. We confirmed this prediction in 2 studies and showed that our theory better accounts for human judgments than alternative theories of diagnostic reasoning. Overall, our findings support the view that in diagnostic reasoning people go "beyond the information given" and use the available data to make inferences on the (unobserved) causal rather than on the (observed) data level. (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

  20. Mind and Meaning: Piaget and Vygotsky on Causal Explanation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beilin, Harry

    1996-01-01

    Piaget's theory has been characterized as descriptive and not explanatory, not qualifying as causal explanation. Piaget was consistent in showing how his theory was both explanatory and causal. Vygotsky also endorsed causal-genetic explanation but, on the basis of knowledge of only Piaget's earliest works, he claimed that Piaget's theory was not…