WorldWideScience

Sample records for return period conditions

  1. One hundred years of return period: Strengths and limitations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volpi, E.; Fiori, A.; Grimaldi, S.; Lombardo, F.; Koutsoyiannis, D.

    2015-10-01

    One hundred years from its original definition by Fuller, the probabilistic concept of return period is widely used in hydrology as well as in other disciplines of geosciences to give an indication on critical event rareness. This concept gains its popularity, especially in engineering practice for design and risk assessment, due to its ease of use and understanding; however, return period relies on some basic assumptions that should be satisfied for a correct application of this statistical tool. Indeed, conventional frequency analysis in hydrology is performed by assuming as necessary conditions that extreme events arise from a stationary distribution and are independent of one another. The main objective of this paper is to investigate the properties of return period when the independence condition is omitted; hence, we explore how the different definitions of return period available in literature affect results of frequency analysis for processes correlated in time. We demonstrate that, for stationary processes, the independence condition is not necessary in order to apply the classical equation of return period (i.e., the inverse of exceedance probability). On the other hand, we show that the time-correlation structure of hydrological processes modifies the shape of the distribution function of which the return period represents the first moment. This implies that, in the context of time-dependent processes, the return period might not represent an exhaustive measure of the probability of failure, and that its blind application could lead to misleading results. To overcome this problem, we introduce the concept of Equivalent Return Period, which controls the probability of failure still preserving the virtue of effectively communicating the event rareness.

  2. Multivariate return periods of sea storms for coastal erosion risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Corbella

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available The erosion of a beach depends on various storm characteristics. Ideally, the risk associated with a storm would be described by a single multivariate return period that is also representative of the erosion risk, i.e. a 100 yr multivariate storm return period would cause a 100 yr erosion return period. Unfortunately, a specific probability level may be associated with numerous combinations of storm characteristics. These combinations, despite having the same multivariate probability, may cause very different erosion outcomes. This paper explores this ambiguity problem in the context of copula based multivariate return periods and using a case study at Durban on the east coast of South Africa. Simulations were used to correlate multivariate return periods of historical events to return periods of estimated storm induced erosion volumes. In addition, the relationship of the most-likely design event (Salvadori et al., 2011 to coastal erosion was investigated. It was found that the multivariate return periods for wave height and duration had the highest correlation to erosion return periods. The most-likely design event was found to be an inadequate design method in its current form. We explore the inclusion of conditions based on the physical realizability of wave events and the use of multivariate linear regression to relate storm parameters to erosion computed from a process based model. Establishing a link between storm statistics and erosion consequences can resolve the ambiguity between multivariate storm return periods and associated erosion return periods.

  3. The Conceptual Model of Calculating the Return Period of the Costs for Creation of the Enterprise’s Economic Security Service in the Short-Term Period

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Melikhova Tetiana O.

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Determination of the return period of the costs, advanced for the creation of economic security service of enterprise during a year, involves consideration of interaction of the conditional money flow, accumulated for a certain number of months, and the constant costs. The main component of the constant costs are the annual depreciation deductions. The return period is considered as gross, net, valid, and specified. The gross (net, valid, and specified return period is the time, wherein the gross conditional money flow, equal to the advanced costs, will be accumulated. The gross return period, taking account of the effect of time factor, is proposed to be defined as the ratio of annual depreciation deductions increased by the annual compounding coefficient to the conditional average monthly gross money flow, increased by the average monthly inflation index. As for the short-term period, a relationship between the gross, net, valid, and specified return periods of the costs, advanced to the creation of the economic security service, has been identified. The net (valid, specified return period is equal to the gross period adjusted to the coefficient of excess of the gross conditional money flow, accumulated in the gross period, over the net (valid, specified conditional cash flow.

  4. Computing return times or return periods with rare event algorithms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lestang, Thibault; Ragone, Francesco; Bréhier, Charles-Edouard; Herbert, Corentin; Bouchet, Freddy

    2018-04-01

    The average time between two occurrences of the same event, referred to as its return time (or return period), is a useful statistical concept for practical applications. For instance insurances or public agencies may be interested by the return time of a 10 m flood of the Seine river in Paris. However, due to their scarcity, reliably estimating return times for rare events is very difficult using either observational data or direct numerical simulations. For rare events, an estimator for return times can be built from the extrema of the observable on trajectory blocks. Here, we show that this estimator can be improved to remain accurate for return times of the order of the block size. More importantly, we show that this approach can be generalised to estimate return times from numerical algorithms specifically designed to sample rare events. So far those algorithms often compute probabilities, rather than return times. The approach we propose provides a computationally extremely efficient way to estimate numerically the return times of rare events for a dynamical system, gaining several orders of magnitude of computational costs. We illustrate the method on two kinds of observables, instantaneous and time-averaged, using two different rare event algorithms, for a simple stochastic process, the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process. As an example of realistic applications to complex systems, we finally discuss extreme values of the drag on an object in a turbulent flow.

  5. Stormwater Design Return Period Standards for U.S. Transportation Infrastructure: How Are States Approaching Resilience?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samaras, C.; Lopez, T.

    2016-12-01

    Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of precipitation in many regions, which is relevant for stormwater engineering designs and resilience in the transportation sector. Existing and future stormwater infrastructure is generally designed for historical and stationary hydrologic conditions. For example, the design return period is based on statistical analysis of past precipitation events, often over a 50-year historical timeline. The design return period translates into how much peak precipitation volume a system is designed for in a state, and provides information about the performance of a drainage structure. The higher the design period used by an engineer for a given stormwater system, the more peak stormwater volume the system can convey. Therefore, design return periods can be associated with a design's near-term and long-term resilience. However, there is a tradeoff between the choice of design return period, the total infrastructure capital cost, and the resilience of a system to heavy precipitation events. This study analyzes current stormwater infrastructure design guidelines for state departments of transportation in the contiguous United States, in order to understand how stormwater design return periods vary across states and provide insight into the resilience of current stormwater systems design. The study found that the design return period varies considerably across the United States by roadway functional class and drainage classification, as well as within climate regions. Understanding this variation will help states identify possible vulnerabilities, highlight deficiencies across states and infrastructure types, and help in updating design return periods to increase the climate resilience of stormwater infrastructure.

  6. Bivariate return periods of temperature and precipitation explain a large fraction of European crop yields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zscheischler, Jakob; Orth, Rene; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

    2017-07-01

    Crops are vital for human society. Crop yields vary with climate and it is important to understand how climate and crop yields are linked to ensure future food security. Temperature and precipitation are among the key driving factors of crop yield variability. Previous studies have investigated mostly linear relationships between temperature and precipitation and crop yield variability. Other research has highlighted the adverse impacts of climate extremes, such as drought and heat waves, on crop yields. Impacts are, however, often non-linearly related to multivariate climate conditions. Here we derive bivariate return periods of climate conditions as indicators for climate variability along different temperature-precipitation gradients. We show that in Europe, linear models based on bivariate return periods of specific climate conditions explain on average significantly more crop yield variability (42 %) than models relying directly on temperature and precipitation as predictors (36 %). Our results demonstrate that most often crop yields increase along a gradient from hot and dry to cold and wet conditions, with lower yields associated with hot and dry periods. The majority of crops are most sensitive to climate conditions in summer and to maximum temperatures. The use of bivariate return periods allows the integration of non-linear impacts into climate-crop yield analysis. This offers new avenues to study the link between climate and crop yield variability and suggests that they are possibly more strongly related than what is inferred from conventional linear models.

  7. Bivariate return periods of temperature and precipitation explain a large fraction of European crop yields

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Zscheischler

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Crops are vital for human society. Crop yields vary with climate and it is important to understand how climate and crop yields are linked to ensure future food security. Temperature and precipitation are among the key driving factors of crop yield variability. Previous studies have investigated mostly linear relationships between temperature and precipitation and crop yield variability. Other research has highlighted the adverse impacts of climate extremes, such as drought and heat waves, on crop yields. Impacts are, however, often non-linearly related to multivariate climate conditions. Here we derive bivariate return periods of climate conditions as indicators for climate variability along different temperature–precipitation gradients. We show that in Europe, linear models based on bivariate return periods of specific climate conditions explain on average significantly more crop yield variability (42 % than models relying directly on temperature and precipitation as predictors (36 %. Our results demonstrate that most often crop yields increase along a gradient from hot and dry to cold and wet conditions, with lower yields associated with hot and dry periods. The majority of crops are most sensitive to climate conditions in summer and to maximum temperatures. The use of bivariate return periods allows the integration of non-linear impacts into climate–crop yield analysis. This offers new avenues to study the link between climate and crop yield variability and suggests that they are possibly more strongly related than what is inferred from conventional linear models.

  8. The Determinant Factors Of Sectoral Stock Return In Bullish And Bearish Condition At Indonesian Capital Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Defrizal

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract this study aims to explain determinant factors of sectoral stock return in bullish and bearish condition at Indonesian capital market. This study used a multi-factor asset pricing model with sectoral stock return as the dependent variable and stock market return interest rates and exchange rate as independent variables. The Identification of stock market condition by using a Markov Switching Models which are also used as the basis for segmenting the data into bullish and bearish conditions. Estimates of the model used the robust least square method. This study used data from Indonesian Stock Exchange to the observation period from January 1996 to December 2013. The results of this study were 1 simultaneously stock market return interest rates and exchange rate affected the sectoral stock return in bullish and bearish condition. 2 Partially the stock market return positively effect and is as a main factor in determining the sectoral stock return in all industries in either bullish condition or bearish condition while the effect of the interest rates and exchange rate do not consistently affect the sectoral stock return in different industries and market conditions.

  9. Estimation of return levels against different return periods of extreme annual rainfall over Baluchistan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ali, M.; Jan, B.; Iqbal, J.

    2012-01-01

    Unprecedented heavy monsoon rainfall began in the last week of July 2010 in the Northern part of our country, causes floods in Baluchistan and Sindh. As the high frequency rainfall events are a significant cause of current severe flooding in Pakistan and any fluctuation in the level of such events may cause huge economic losses as well as social problem, urban structures (i.e. dams, urban drainage systems and flood). Statistical distributions are used to identify extremes of annual rainfall of different cities of Baluchistan (Quetta, Sibbi, Khuzdar, Lasbella, Dalbandin and Pasni) with their return periods. Analysis predicts that Gumbel Max. (GM) Distribution is the best fitted distribution for Sibbi and Lasbella while the GEV distribution is the best fitted for Quetta, Khuzdar, Dalbandin and Pasni. The analysis also suggests that different cities of Baluchistan have 30-years return period for getting more than 90 mm average daily rainfall while they have 100-years return period for receiving more than 118 mm daily rainfall. This suggests for suitable flood forecasting and improving the river structure in Baluchistan, Pakistan. (author)

  10. Return period assessment of urban pluvial floods through modelling of rainfall–flood response

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tuyls, Damian Murla; Thorndahl, Søren Liedtke; Rasmussen, Michael Robdrup

    2018-01-01

    Intense rainfall in urban areas can often generate severe flood impacts. Consequently, it is crucial to design systems to minimize potential flood damages. Traditional, simple design of urban drainage systems assumes agreement between rainfall return period and its consequent flood return period......; however, this does not always apply. Hydraulic infrastructures found in urban drainage systems can increase system heterogeneity and perturb the impact of severe rainfall response. In this study, a surface flood return period assessment was carried out at Lystrup (Denmark), which has received the impact...... of flooding in recent years. A 35 years' rainfall dataset together with a coupled 1D/2D surface and network model was used to analyse and assess flood return period response. Results show an ambiguous relation between rainfall and flood return periods indicating that linear rainfall–runoff relationships will...

  11. The joint return period analysis of natural disasters based on monitoring and statistical modeling of multidimensional hazard factors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, Xueqin [State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875 (China); National Marine Environmental Monitoring Center, State Oceanic Administration, Dalian 116023 (China); School of Social Development and Public Policy, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875 (China); Li, Ning [State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875 (China); Yuan, Shuai, E-mail: syuan@nmemc.org.cn [National Marine Environmental Monitoring Center, State Oceanic Administration, Dalian 116023 (China); Xu, Ning; Shi, Wenqin; Chen, Weibin [National Marine Environmental Monitoring Center, State Oceanic Administration, Dalian 116023 (China)

    2015-12-15

    As a random event, a natural disaster has the complex occurrence mechanism. The comprehensive analysis of multiple hazard factors is important in disaster risk assessment. In order to improve the accuracy of risk analysis and forecasting, the formation mechanism of a disaster should be considered in the analysis and calculation of multi-factors. Based on the consideration of the importance and deficiencies of multivariate analysis of dust storm disasters, 91 severe dust storm disasters in Inner Mongolia from 1990 to 2013 were selected as study cases in the paper. Main hazard factors from 500-hPa atmospheric circulation system, near-surface meteorological system, and underlying surface conditions were selected to simulate and calculate the multidimensional joint return periods. After comparing the simulation results with actual dust storm events in 54 years, we found that the two-dimensional Frank Copula function showed the better fitting results at the lower tail of hazard factors and that three-dimensional Frank Copula function displayed the better fitting results at the middle and upper tails of hazard factors. However, for dust storm disasters with the short return period, three-dimensional joint return period simulation shows no obvious advantage. If the return period is longer than 10 years, it shows significant advantages in extreme value fitting. Therefore, we suggest the multivariate analysis method may be adopted in forecasting and risk analysis of serious disasters with the longer return period, such as earthquake and tsunami. Furthermore, the exploration of this method laid the foundation for the prediction and warning of other nature disasters. - Highlights: • A method to estimate the multidimensional joint return periods is presented. • 2D function allows better fitting results at the lower tail of hazard factors. • Three-dimensional simulation has obvious advantages in extreme value fitting. • Joint return periods are closer to the reality

  12. The joint return period analysis of natural disasters based on monitoring and statistical modeling of multidimensional hazard factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, Xueqin; Li, Ning; Yuan, Shuai; Xu, Ning; Shi, Wenqin; Chen, Weibin

    2015-01-01

    As a random event, a natural disaster has the complex occurrence mechanism. The comprehensive analysis of multiple hazard factors is important in disaster risk assessment. In order to improve the accuracy of risk analysis and forecasting, the formation mechanism of a disaster should be considered in the analysis and calculation of multi-factors. Based on the consideration of the importance and deficiencies of multivariate analysis of dust storm disasters, 91 severe dust storm disasters in Inner Mongolia from 1990 to 2013 were selected as study cases in the paper. Main hazard factors from 500-hPa atmospheric circulation system, near-surface meteorological system, and underlying surface conditions were selected to simulate and calculate the multidimensional joint return periods. After comparing the simulation results with actual dust storm events in 54 years, we found that the two-dimensional Frank Copula function showed the better fitting results at the lower tail of hazard factors and that three-dimensional Frank Copula function displayed the better fitting results at the middle and upper tails of hazard factors. However, for dust storm disasters with the short return period, three-dimensional joint return period simulation shows no obvious advantage. If the return period is longer than 10 years, it shows significant advantages in extreme value fitting. Therefore, we suggest the multivariate analysis method may be adopted in forecasting and risk analysis of serious disasters with the longer return period, such as earthquake and tsunami. Furthermore, the exploration of this method laid the foundation for the prediction and warning of other nature disasters. - Highlights: • A method to estimate the multidimensional joint return periods is presented. • 2D function allows better fitting results at the lower tail of hazard factors. • Three-dimensional simulation has obvious advantages in extreme value fitting. • Joint return periods are closer to the reality

  13. How are flood risk estimates affected by the choice of return-periods?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, P. J.; de Moel, H.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.

    2011-12-01

    Flood management is more and more adopting a risk based approach, whereby flood risk is the product of the probability and consequences of flooding. One of the most common approaches in flood risk assessment is to estimate the damage that would occur for floods of several exceedance probabilities (or return periods), to plot these on an exceedance probability-loss curve (risk curve) and to estimate risk as the area under the curve. However, there is little insight into how the selection of the return-periods (which ones and how many) used to calculate risk actually affects the final risk calculation. To gain such insights, we developed and validated an inundation model capable of rapidly simulating inundation extent and depth, and dynamically coupled this to an existing damage model. The method was applied to a section of the River Meuse in the southeast of the Netherlands. Firstly, we estimated risk based on a risk curve using yearly return periods from 2 to 10 000 yr (€ 34 million p.a.). We found that the overall risk is greatly affected by the number of return periods used to construct the risk curve, with over-estimations of annual risk between 33% and 100% when only three return periods are used. In addition, binary assumptions on dike failure can have a large effect (a factor two difference) on risk estimates. Also, the minimum and maximum return period considered in the curve affects the risk estimate considerably. The results suggest that more research is needed to develop relatively simple inundation models that can be used to produce large numbers of inundation maps, complementary to more complex 2-D-3-D hydrodynamic models. It also suggests that research into flood risk could benefit by paying more attention to the damage caused by relatively high probability floods.

  14. Crude oil price shocks and stock returns. Evidence from Turkish stock market under global liquidity conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berk, Istemi [Koeln Univ. (Germany). Energiewirtschaftliches Inst.; Aydogan, Berna [Izmir Univ. of Economics (Turkey). Dept. of International Trade and Finance

    2012-09-15

    The purpose of this study is to investigate the impacts of crude oil price variations on the Turkish stock market returns. We have employed vector autoregression (V AR) model using daily observations of Brent crude oil prices and Istanbul Stock Exchange National Index (ISE- 1 00) returns for the period between January 2, 1990 and November 1, 2011. We have also tested the relationship between oil prices and stock market returns under global liquidity conditions by incorporating a liquidity proxy variable, Chicago Board of Exchange's (CBOE) S and P 500 market volatility index (VIX), into the model. Variance decomposition test results suggest little empirical evidence that crude oil price shocks have been rationally evaluated in the Turkish stock market. Rather, it was global liquidity conditions that were found to account for the greatest amount of variation in stock market returns.

  15. Supporting a Deep Space Gateway with Free-Return Earth-Moon Periodic Orbits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Genova, A. L.; Dunham, D. W.; Hardgrove, C.

    2018-02-01

    Earth-Moon periodic orbits travel between the Earth and Moon via free-return circumlunar segments and can host a station that can provide architecture support to other nodes near the Moon and Mars while enabling science return from cislunar space.

  16. Conditional Relationship Between Beta and Return in the US Stock Market

    OpenAIRE

    Bing XIAO

    2016-01-01

    According to the CAPM, risk is measured by the beta, and the relation between required expected return and beta is linear. This paper examines the conditional relationship between beta and return in the US stock market. The conditional covariances and variances used to estimate beta are modeled as an ARCH process. The beta return relationship is tested upon the sign of the excess market return. The implication of the sign of the excess market return follows Morelli (2011). This study shows th...

  17. On the return period and design in a multivariate framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Salvadori

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Calculating return periods and design quantiles in a multivariate environment is a difficult problem: this paper tries to make the issue clear. First, we outline a possible way to introduce a consistent theoretical framework for the calculation of the return period in a multi-dimensional environment, based on Copulas and the Kendall's measure. Secondly, we introduce several approaches for the identification of suitable design events: these latter quantities are of utmost importance in practical applications, but their calculation is yet limited, due to the lack of an adequate theoretical environment where to embed the problem. Throughout the paper, a case study involving the behavior of a dam is used to illustrate the new concepts outlined in this work.

  18. Conditional Relationship Between Beta and Return in the US Stock Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bing XIAO

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available According to the CAPM, risk is measured by the beta, and the relation between required expected return and beta is linear. This paper examines the conditional relationship between beta and return in the US stock market. The conditional covariances and variances used to estimate beta are modeled as an ARCH process. The beta return relationship is tested upon the sign of the excess market return. The implication of the sign of the excess market return follows Morelli (2011. This study shows the importance of recognizing the sign of the excess market return when testing the beta-return relationship. The approach also allows us to distinguish the size effect and the effect of economic cycles.

  19. Levee reliability analyses for various flood return periods - a case study in southern Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, W.-C.; Yu, H.-W.; Weng, M.-C.

    2015-04-01

    In recent years, heavy rainfall conditions have caused disasters around the world. To prevent losses by floods, levees have often been constructed in inundation-prone areas. This study performed reliability analyses for the Chiuliao First Levee in southern Taiwan. The failure-related parameters were the water level, the scouring depth, and the in situ friction angle. Three major failure mechanisms were considered: the slope sliding failure of the levee and the sliding and overturning failures of the retaining wall. When the variability of the in situ friction angle and the scouring depth are considered for various flood return periods, the variations of the factor of safety for the different failure mechanisms show that the retaining wall sliding and overturning failures are more sensitive to the change of the friction angle. When the flood return period is greater than 2 years, the levee could fail with slope sliding for all values of the water level difference. The results of levee stability analysis considering the variability of different parameters could aid engineers in designing the levee cross sections, especially with potential failure mechanisms in mind.

  20. The dynamic conditional relationship between stock market returns and implied volatility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Sung Y.; Ryu, Doojin; Song, Jeongseok

    2017-09-01

    Using the dynamic conditional correlation multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (DCC-MGARCH) model, we empirically examine the dynamic relationship between stock market returns (KOSPI200 returns) and implied volatility (VKOSPI), as well as their statistical mechanics, in the Korean market, a representative and leading emerging market. We consider four macroeconomic variables (exchange rates, risk-free rates, term spreads, and credit spreads) as potential determinants of the dynamic conditional correlation between returns and volatility. Of these macroeconomic variables, the change in exchange rates has a significant impact on the dynamic correlation between KOSPI200 returns and the VKOSPI, especially during the recent financial crisis. We also find that the risk-free rate has a marginal effect on this dynamic conditional relationship.

  1. Spatial variability of maximum annual daily rain under different return periods at the Rio de Janeiro state, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roriz Luciano Machado

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Knowledge of maximum daily rain and its return period in a region is an important tool to soil conservation, hydraulic engineering and preservation of road projects. The objective of this work was to evaluate the spatial variability of maximum annual daily rain considering different return periods, at the Rio de Janeiro State. The data set was composed by historical series of 119 rain gauges, for 36 years of observation. The return periods, estimated by Gumbel distribution, were 2, 5, 10, 25, 50 and 100 years. The spatial variability of the return periods was evaluated by semivariograms. All the return periods presented spatial dependence, with exponential and spherical model fitted to the experimental semivariograms. The parameters of the fitted semivariogram model were very similar; however, it was observed the presence of higher nugget effects for semivariograms of longer return periods. The values of maximum annual daily average rain in all the return periods increased from north to south and from countryside to the coast. In the region between the Serra do Mar range and the coast, besides increasing in magnitude, an increase in the spatial variability of the studied values with increasing return periods was also noticed. This behavior is probably caused by the orographic effect. The interpolated maps were more erratic for higher return periods and at the North, Northeast and Coastal Plain regions, in which the installation of new pluviometric stations are recommended.

  2. A Conceptual Model for Calculating the Return of Costs Invested in the Creation of an Economic Security Service, During a Short-Term Period

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Melikhova Tetiana O.

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The article is aimed at suggesting methods for calculating the short-term period of return of costs invested in creation of an economic security service. The article considers approaches to calculation of the period of return of costs, advanced at the level of enterprise, which build the methodical basis for definition of such period. At the level of structural subdivisions of enterprise, which do not produce products, it is suggested to use conditional money flow as a source of financing advanced costs. The calculation of the short-term return on investment at the enterprise level provides for: allocation of expenses for the permanent and the replacement parts during the year; determination of the production of money flow and the money flow accumulated during the year. Annual depreciation payments are the basis of fixed costs. Methods of determination of the gross, net, valid, and specified periods of return of costs, advanced during the year for introduction of an economic security service at enterprise, have been suggested.

  3. Effects of abdominal pressure on venous return: abdominal vascular zone conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takata, M; Wise, R A; Robotham, J L

    1990-12-01

    The effects of changes in abdominal pressure (Pab) on inferior vena cava (IVC) venous return were analyzed using a model of the IVC circulation based on a concept of abdominal vascular zone conditions analogous to pulmonary vascular zone conditions. We hypothesized that an increase in Pab would increase IVC venous return when the IVC pressure at the level of the diaphragm (Pivc) exceeds the sum of Pab and the critical closing transmural pressure (Pc), i.e., zone 3 conditions, but reduce IVC venous return when Pivc is below the sum of Pab and Pc, i.e., zone 2 conditions. The validity of the model was tested in 12 canine experiments with an open-chest IVC bypass. An increase in Pab produced by phrenic stimulation increased the IVC venous return when Pivc-Pab was positive but decreased the IVC venous return when Pivc - Pab was negative. The value of Pivc - Pab that separated net increases from decreases in venous return was 1.00 +/- 0.72 (SE) mmHg (n = 6). An increase in Pivc did not influence the femoral venous pressure when Pivc was lower than the sum of Pab and a constant, 0.96 +/- 0.70 mmHg (n = 6), consistent with presence of a waterfall. These results agreed closely with the predictions of the model and its computer simulation. The abdominal venous compartment appears to function with changes in Pab either as a capacitor in zone 3 conditions or as a collapsible Starling resistor with little wall tone in zone 2 conditions.

  4. ICUD-0147 Extreme event statistics of urban pluvial floods – Return period assessment and rainfall variability impacts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tuyls, Damian Murla; Nielsen, Rasmus; Thorndahl, Søren Liedtke

    2017-01-01

    A return period assessment of urban flood has been performed and its adhered impact of rainfall variability studied over a urban drainage catchment area in Aalborg, Denmark. Recorded rainfall from 7 rain gauges has been used, located in a range of 7.5Km and for a period varying form 18-37 years....... Return period of rainfall and flood at catchment and local scale has been estimated, its derived ambiguities analysed and the variability of rain gauge based rainfall investigated regarding to flood estimation results. Results show a clear contrast between rainfall and flood return period estimates...

  5. Modeling conditional correlations of asset returns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Silvennoinen, Annastiina; Teräsvirta, Timo

    2015-01-01

    In this paper we propose a new multivariate GARCH model with time-varying conditional correlation structure. The time-varying conditional correlations change smoothly between two extreme states of constant correlations according to a predetermined or exogenous transition variable. An LM-test is d......In this paper we propose a new multivariate GARCH model with time-varying conditional correlation structure. The time-varying conditional correlations change smoothly between two extreme states of constant correlations according to a predetermined or exogenous transition variable. An LM......-test is derived to test the constancy of correlations and LM- and Wald tests to test the hypothesis of partially constant correlations. Analytical expressions for the test statistics and the required derivatives are provided to make computations feasible. An empirical example based on daily return series of five...

  6. PORTOFOLIO MARKOWITZ: UJI OPTIMAL HOLDING PERIOD DAN KINERJA PORTOFOLIO BERDASARKAN KRITERIA RISIKO DAN TARGET RETURN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andi Ivand Markemo Boangmanalu

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The concept of mean-variance optimization, developed by Markowitz, is the cornerstone of modern finance theory. The objective of this portfolio construction is to minimize investment risk by forming optimal portfolios. Dynamic movement in capital markets requires not only changes in portfolio composition. Optimal portfolio is not only determined by the covariance between securities in the portfolio, but also by holding period. The aims of this study is to answer two research questions. The first research question is how long the optimal holding period that was resulted from trade-off between risk and return. This study using target return that are determined hypothetically as well as the risk criteria are divided into 3 namely the mean variance, semivarians and expected loss. Target returns are simulated in this study were divided into 3 criteria namely aggressive, moderate and conservative. The second research question is whether there are differences among the various portfolio performance based on criteria of risk and target return. Portfolio performance is measured by using excess return and the Sharpe index. In this study, stocks covered in LQ-45 index are used to construct efficient portoflio. Monthly price series for company and LQ-45 index for February 2004 to September 2008 are collected. The analysis found that optimal holing period is ranges between 1-5 months. Holding period of a portfolio that more than 5 months will provide risk and return trade-off less favorable. In addition this study found that there was no significant differences in portfolio performance based on overall scenarios

  7. Multivariate return periods in hydrology: a critical and practical review focusing on synthetic design hydrograph estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Gräler

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Most of the hydrological and hydraulic studies refer to the notion of a return period to quantify design variables. When dealing with multiple design variables, the well-known univariate statistical analysis is no longer satisfactory, and several issues challenge the practitioner. How should one incorporate the dependence between variables? How should a multivariate return period be defined and applied in order to yield a proper design event? In this study an overview of the state of the art for estimating multivariate design events is given and the different approaches are compared. The construction of multivariate distribution functions is done through the use of copulas, given their practicality in multivariate frequency analyses and their ability to model numerous types of dependence structures in a flexible way. A synthetic case study is used to generate a large data set of simulated discharges that is used for illustrating the effect of different modelling choices on the design events. Based on different uni- and multivariate approaches, the design hydrograph characteristics of a 3-D phenomenon composed of annual maximum peak discharge, its volume, and duration are derived. These approaches are based on regression analysis, bivariate conditional distributions, bivariate joint distributions and Kendall distribution functions, highlighting theoretical and practical issues of multivariate frequency analysis. Also an ensemble-based approach is presented. For a given design return period, the approach chosen clearly affects the calculated design event, and much attention should be given to the choice of the approach used as this depends on the real-world problem at hand.

  8. Challenges estimating the return period of extreme floods for reinsurance applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raven, Emma; Busby, Kathryn; Liu, Ye

    2013-04-01

    Mapping and modelling extreme natural events is fundamental within the insurance and reinsurance industry for assessing risk. For example, insurers might use a 1 in 100-year flood hazard map to set the annual premium of a property, whilst a reinsurer might assess the national scale loss associated with the 1 in 200-year return period for capital and regulatory requirements. Using examples from a range of international flood projects, we focus on exploring how to define what the n-year flood looks like for predictive uses in re/insurance applications, whilst considering challenges posed by short historical flow records and the spatial and temporal complexities of flood. First, we shall explore the use of extreme value theory (EVT) statistics for extrapolating data beyond the range of observations in a marginal analysis. In particular, we discuss how to estimate the return period of historical flood events and explore the impact that a range of statistical decisions have on these estimates. Decisions include: (1) selecting which distribution type to apply (e.g. generalised Pareto distribution (GPD) vs. generalised extreme value distribution (GEV)); (2) if former, the choice of the threshold above which the GPD is fitted to the data; and (3) the necessity to perform a cluster analysis to group flow peaks to temporally represent individual flood events. Second, we summarise a specialised multivariate extreme value model, which combines the marginal analysis above with dependence modelling to generate industry standard event sets containing thousands of simulated, equi-probable floods across a region/country. These events represent the typical range of anticipated flooding across a region and can be used to estimate the largest or most widespread events that are expected to occur. Finally, we summarise how a reinsurance catastrophe model combines the event set with detailed flood hazard maps to estimate the financial cost of floods; both the full event set and also

  9. Stock return, seasonality and asymmetric conditional volatility in steel & iron subsector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Chirila

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the results obtained following the testing of five hypotheses regarding conditional return and volatility of the most listed European stocks in the steel & iron subsector. The following elements of the stocks are analysed: time variation of volatility, seasonality of return and volatility, relationship between return and volatility and volatility asymmetry. The results obtained confirm for all the analyzed stocks the existence of volatility variation in time, the lack of correlation between return and volatility, the existence of asymmetry phenomenon of volatility and the presence in some stocks of the seasonality effect both for return and volatility.

  10. The dual effect of vegetation green-up date and strong wind on the return period of spring dust storms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Jieling; Li, Ning; Zhang, Zhengtao; Chen, Xi

    2017-08-15

    Vegetation phenology changes have been widely applied in the disaster risk assessments of the spring dust storms, and vegetation green-up date shifts have a strong influence on dust storms. However, the effect of earlier vegetation green-up dates due to climate warming on the evaluation of dust storms return periods remains an important, but poorly understood issue. In this study, we evaluate the spring dust storm return period (February to June) in Inner Mongolia, Northern China, using 165 observations of severe spring dust storm events from 16 weather stations, and regional vegetation green-up dates as an integrated factor from NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index), covering a period from 1982 to 2007, by building the bivariate Copula model. We found that the joint return period showed better fitting results than without considering the integrated factor when the actual dust storm return period is longer than 2years. Also, for extremely severe dust storm events, the gap between simulation result and actual return period can be narrowed up to 0.4888years by using integrated factor. Furthermore, the risk map based on the return period results shows that the Mandula, Zhurihe, Sunitezuoqi, Narenbaolige stations are identified as high risk areas. In this study area, land surface is extensively covered by grasses and shrubs, vegetation green-up date can play a significant role in restraining spring dust storm outbreaks. Therefore, we suggest that Copula method can become a useful tool for joint return period evaluation and risk analysis of severe dust storms. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. A Bivariate return period for levee failure monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isola, M.; Caporali, E.

    2017-12-01

    Levee breaches are strongly linked with the interaction processes among water, soil and structure, thus many are the factors that affect the breach development. One of the main is the hydraulic load, characterized by intensity and duration, i.e. by the flood event hydrograph. On the magnitude of the hydraulic load is based the levee design, generally without considering the fatigue failure due to the load duration. Moreover, many are the cases in which the levee breach are characterized by flood of magnitude lower than the design one. In order to implement the strategies of flood risk management, we built here a procedure based on a multivariate statistical analysis of flood peak and volume together with the analysis of the past levee failure events. Particularly, in order to define the probability of occurrence of the hydraulic load on a levee, a bivariate copula model is used to obtain the bivariate joint distribution of flood peak and volume. Flood peak is the expression of the load magnitude, while the volume is the expression of the stress over time. We consider the annual flood peak and the relative volume. The volume is given by the hydrograph area between the beginning and the end of event. The beginning of the event is identified as an abrupt rise of the discharge by more than 20%. The end is identified as the point from which the receding limb is characterized by the baseflow, using a nonlinear reservoir algorithm as baseflow separation technique. By this, with the aim to define warning thresholds we consider the past levee failure events and the relative bivariate return period (BTr) compared with the estimation of a traditional univariate model. The discharge data of 30 hydrometric stations of Arno River in Tuscany, Italy, in the period 1995-2016 are analysed. The database of levee failure events, considering for each event the location as well as the failure mode, is also created. The events were registered in the period 2000-2014 by EEA

  12. Return periods of losses associated with European windstorm series in a changing climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karremann, Melanie K; Pinto, Joaquim G; Reyers, Mark; Klawa, Matthias

    2014-01-01

    Possible future changes of clustering and return periods (RPs) of European storm series with high potential losses are quantified. Historical storm series are identified using 40 winters of reanalysis. Time series of top events (1, 2 or 5 year return levels (RLs)) are used to assess RPs of storm series both empirically and theoretically. Additionally, 800 winters of general circulation model simulations for present (1960–2000) and future (2060–2100) climate conditions are investigated. Clustering is identified for most countries, and estimated RPs are similar for reanalysis and present day simulations. Future changes of RPs are estimated for fixed RLs and fixed loss index thresholds. For the former, shorter RPs are found for Western Europe, but changes are small and spatially heterogeneous. For the latter, which combines the effects of clustering and event ranking shifts, shorter RPs are found everywhere except for Mediterranean countries. These changes are generally not statistically significant between recent and future climate. However, the RPs for the fixed loss index approach are mostly beyond the range of pre-industrial natural climate variability. This is not true for fixed RLs. The quantification of losses associated with storm series permits a more adequate windstorm risk assessment in a changing climate. (letter)

  13. Return Period of a Sea Storm with at Least Two Waves Higher than a Fixed Threshold

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Felice Arena

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Practical applications in ocean engineering require the long-term analysis for prediction of extreme waves, that identify design conditions. If extreme individual waves are investigated, we need to combine long-term statistical analysis of ocean waves with short-term statistics. The former considers the distribution of standard deviation of free surface displacement in the considered location in a long-time span, of order of 10 years or more. The latter analyzes the distribution of individual wave heights in a sea state, which is a Gaussian process in time domain. Recent advanced approaches enable the combination of the two analyses. In the paper the analytical solution is obtained for the return period of a sea storm with at least two individual waves higher than a fixed level. This solution is based on the application of the Equivalent Triangular Storm model for the representation of actual storms. One of the corollaries of the solution gives the exact expression for the probability that at least two waves higher than fixed level are produced during the lifetime of a structure. The previous solution of return period and the relative probability of exceedance may be effectively applied for the risk analysis of ocean structures.

  14. Impacts of Return-to-Work Type and Period on Job Retention in Workers with Occupational Injuries and Diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeong, Inchul; Park, Jae Bum; Kim, Hyoung Ryoul; Yoon, Jin Ha; Won, Jong Uk; Roh, Jaehoon

    2018-01-01

    Despite the necessity of job retention in achieving return-to-work (RTW) goals, many workers leave their jobs after returning to work. The objective of this study was to examine the impacts of RTW type and period on job retention in Korean workers with occupational injuries and diseases. Data were derived from the Panel Study of Worker's Compensation Insurance, including data from 2,000 systemically sampled workers who had finished recuperation in 2012; three waves of survey data were included in the analyses. Workers who returned to work (n = 1,610) were included in the analysis of the relationship between RTW type and job retention, and 664 workers who returned to their original workplaces were included in the analysis of the relationship between RTW period and job retention. The participants completed a questionnaire, and administrative data were provided by workers' compensation insurance. A Cox proportional-hazards regression analysis showed an increased hazard ratio (HR) for non-retention of 2.66 (95% confidence interval, 2.11-3.35) in reemployed workers compared to that in workers returning to their original workplaces. Among workers returning to their original workplaces, HRs for non-retention were increased in workers with a RTW period of 13-24 months (3.03 [1.52-6.04]) and > 24 months (5.33 [2.14-13.25]) compared to workers with a RTW period of ≤ 3 months. RTW type and period were significantly related to job retention, suggesting that policies for promoting job retention rate should be implemented. © 2018 The Korean Academy of Medical Sciences.

  15. The return period analysis of natural disasters with statistical modeling of bivariate joint probability distribution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ning; Liu, Xueqin; Xie, Wei; Wu, Jidong; Zhang, Peng

    2013-01-01

    New features of natural disasters have been observed over the last several years. The factors that influence the disasters' formation mechanisms, regularity of occurrence and main characteristics have been revealed to be more complicated and diverse in nature than previously thought. As the uncertainty involved increases, the variables need to be examined further. This article discusses the importance and the shortage of multivariate analysis of natural disasters and presents a method to estimate the joint probability of the return periods and perform a risk analysis. Severe dust storms from 1990 to 2008 in Inner Mongolia were used as a case study to test this new methodology, as they are normal and recurring climatic phenomena on Earth. Based on the 79 investigated events and according to the dust storm definition with bivariate, the joint probability distribution of severe dust storms was established using the observed data of maximum wind speed and duration. The joint return periods of severe dust storms were calculated, and the relevant risk was analyzed according to the joint probability. The copula function is able to simulate severe dust storm disasters accurately. The joint return periods generated are closer to those observed in reality than the univariate return periods and thus have more value in severe dust storm disaster mitigation, strategy making, program design, and improvement of risk management. This research may prove useful in risk-based decision making. The exploration of multivariate analysis methods can also lay the foundation for further applications in natural disaster risk analysis. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

  16. ANALISIS PENGARUH EVA DAN MVA TERHADAP RETURN SAHAM PADA INDUSTRI PROPERTI DI BURSA EFEK INDONESIA PERIODE 2007-2012

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ryan Pahlawan

    2015-04-01

    mendapatkan investor dari Bursa Efek Indonesia Abstract: The aim of this research is to know and analyze : (1st the influence of Economic Value Added (EVA to Stock Return (2nd the influence of Market Value Added (MVA  to Stock Return (3rd the influence of Economic Value Added (EVA and Market Value Added (MVA to Stock Return between the financial performance variables of property industries on Indonesian Stock Exchange on period 2007-2012.The theoretical usefulness is to give contribution about financial management knowledge, which can use as reference for next research of financial performance especially about property industries on Indonesian Stock Exchange. The practical usefulness is to know the rate influence of Economic Value Added (EVA and Market Value Added (MVA to financial performance for give contribution to general property management in manage performance variables of property industries Indonesian Stock Exchange. This research using the secondary data which collected from Indonesian Stock Exchange data, and Research Department according to properties financial report on period 2007-2012. The samples are 54 variables and analyzed by multiple regression linear statistic method. Total of determination value is 0.368, this meaning is 36,8% the information in the data can be explained by model and 63,2% under other variables and error.  Conclusion of this research is : (1st Variables of Economic Value Added (EVA have positive influence to Stock Return; (2nd Variables of Market Value Added (MVA have negative influence to Stock Return; Refer to research conclusion above suggested is : (1st Optimized the Economic Value Added (EVA to achieve income and profits of stock return (2nd Manage the Variables of Market Value Added (MVA on well condition to keep finance stability  and get trusted from investors Indonesian Stock Exchange  (3rd Focus to Risk Management, Services, Corporate Vision & Mission, and Active to higher employee’s skill and knowledge company to get

  17. Modeling the Conditional Covariance between Stock and Bond Returns

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P. de Goeij (Peter); W.A. Marquering (Wessel)

    2002-01-01

    textabstractTo analyze the intertemporal interaction between the stock and bond market returns, we allow the conditional covariance matrix to vary over time according to a multivariate GARCH model similar to Bollerslev, Engle and Wooldridge (1988). We extend the model such that it allows for

  18. Making prudent recommendations for return-to-play in adult athletes with cardiac conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliveira, Leonardo P J; Lawless, Christine E

    2011-01-01

    Clinicians who treat millions of adult athletes throughout the world may be faced with participation or return-to-play decisions in individuals with known or suspected cardiac conditions. Here we review existing published participation guidelines and analyze emerging data from ongoing registries and population-based studies pertaining to return-to-play decisions for cardiac conditions specifically affecting adult athletes. Considerations related to return-to-play decisions will vary according to age of the athlete, with inherited disorders being the main consideration in younger adult athletes aged 18 to 40 yr, and coronary artery disease being the main consideration in older adult athletes aged 40 yr and older. Although this arbitrary division is based on the epidemiology of underlying heart disease in these populations, the essential return-to-play decision process for both age groups is quite similar. Among the most widely used guidelines to make return-to-play decisions in this group of athletes are the 36th Bethesda Conference Eligibility Recommendations for Competitive Athletes with Cardiovascular Abnormalities. These have long been considered the "gold standard" for determining return-to-play decisions in young athletes in the United States. Other guidelines are available for unique purposes, including The European Society of Cardiology guidelines, and the American Heart Association published recommendations regarding participation of young patients (younger than 40 yr) with genetic cardiovascular diseases in recreational sports. The latter are consistent with the 36th Bethesda guidelines and cover common genetically based diseases such as inherited cardiomyopathies, channelopathy, and connective tissue disorders like Marfan's syndrome. The consensus on masters athletes (older than 40 yr) provides return-to-play decisions for a wide variety of conditioned states, from elite older athletes to walk-up athletes. For any adult athlete with a cardiac condition

  19. Value Premium and Country Risk as Dimensions to Estimate Conditional Returns: a Study of the Brazilian Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lilian de Castro Medeiros

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Asset pricing is a widely explored theme in the financial literature. Nevertheless, the phenomenon of value premium is still controversial, since although easily detected in developed and emerging markets, little is know about the economic forces that explain its existence. In this context, this article examines value premium in the Brazilian market and investigates the influence of the country risk variable as an additional risk factor for estimating conditional returns in this market not captured by value premium. For that, we employ a five-factor model, formulated by adding the country risk factor to the model of Carhart (1997. We apply the statistical procedure adopted by Fama & French (1993 to the period between 1994 and 2012, with data on nonfinancial companies listed on the BM&FBovespa. The results confirm the existence of value premium in the Brazilian market, and country risk and value premium together are significant factors to explain conditional returns.

  20. Importance of historical seismicity in the evaluation of large return period hazards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oliveira, C.S.

    1983-01-01

    This paper reports the results from an historical investigation on earthquake activity in Portugal based on data collected from original sources. A detailed revision of earthquake catalogues in what concerns date of occurrence, isosseismal maps, epicentral location, magnitude and duration of vibration was made for most of the 260 events identified in the period 1000 to 1900. Introducing this new piece of information which exhibits a much higher degree of quality into standard hazard models, uncertainties on final estimates for the zones of large return periods, RP, (RP > 200 years) are greatly reduced

  1. Modeling Conditional Volatility of Indian Banking Sector’s Stock Market Returns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Singh Amanjot

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The study attempts to capture conditional variance of Indian banking sector’s stock market returns across the years 2005 to 2015 by employing different GARCH based symmetric and asymmetric models. The results report existence of persistency as well as leverage effects in the banking sector return volatility. On an expected note, the global financial crisis increased conditional volatility in the Indian banking sector during the years 2007 to 2009; further evidenced from Markov regime switches. The exponential GARCH (EGARCH model is found to be the best fit model capturing time-varying variance in the banking sector. The results support strong implications for the market participants at the time of devising portfolio management strategies.

  2. Behavior of Stock Price Variability over Trading and Nontrading Periods, and Daily Return Volatility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sumiyana Sumiyana

    2007-09-01

    This study concludes that return variance over trading and nontrading periods, along with overnight and lunch break nontrading session, and the first and second trading session, has differed significantly. In addition, daily return volatility is also not identical significantly. Subsequently, this study used size, trading volume, bid-ask spreads and up-down market as control variables. This study contradicts to all prior studies. This study especially suggests contra evidence in comparisons with previous concepts and theories in regards to size, trading volume, bid-ask spreads, and up-down market as control variables.

  3. Multi-Period Mean-Variance Portfolio Selection with Uncertain Time Horizon When Returns Are Serially Correlated

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ling Zhang

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available We study a multi-period mean-variance portfolio selection problem with an uncertain time horizon and serial correlations. Firstly, we embed the nonseparable multi-period optimization problem into a separable quadratic optimization problem with uncertain exit time by employing the embedding technique of Li and Ng (2000. Then we convert the later into an optimization problem with deterministic exit time. Finally, using the dynamic programming approach, we explicitly derive the optimal strategy and the efficient frontier for the dynamic mean-variance optimization problem. A numerical example with AR(1 return process is also presented, which shows that both the uncertainty of exit time and the serial correlations of returns have significant impacts on the optimal strategy and the efficient frontier.

  4. Returns to schooling in the Portuguese economy: a reassessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Manuel Campos

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper provides an overview of the evolution of private returns to schooling in the Portuguese economy along the 1986-2013 period. We estimate the returns separately for men and women, at the mean and along the conditional wage distribution. Returns to schooling are found to be high, particularly for women, and to increase along the distribution. The magnitude of the returns increased throughout the 1986-2013 period, but particularly in the 1990s. We also provide estimates of the relative wage premium associated with specific levels of educational attainment and find that they are highest for tertiary education. In the first decades under analysis, relative wage premia associated with the 9th grade stand above those estimated for secondary education, whereas in the most recent period these differences are negligible.

  5. Stochastic long term modelling of a drainage system with estimation of return period uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorndahl, Søren

    2009-01-01

    Long term prediction of maximum water levels and combined sewer overflow (CSO) in drainage systems are associated with large uncertainties. Especially on rainfall inputs, parameters, and assessment of return periods. This paper proposes a Monte Carlo based methodology for stochastic prediction of...

  6. 26 CFR 1.6038-1 - Information returns required of domestic corporations with respect to annual accounting periods...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... the annual accounting period; (6) A list showing the name and address of, and the number of shares of... paragraphs (e) and (f) of this section shall be expressed in United States currency with a statement of the exchange rates used. (h) Time and place for filing return. Returns on Form 2952 required under paragraph (a...

  7. The probability of return conditional on migration duration: evidence from Kosovo

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kotorri Mrika

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to conceptualise the migration duration decision within the expected utility maximisation framework, and from that to derive and estimate an empirical proposition. For this purpose, the conceptual framework in Kotorri (2015 is extended where households decide to return to the home country conditional on their migration duration. In the empirical analysis, the Cox proportional hazards model is employed. This analysis is the first to investigate migration duration based on a random sample stemming from the Kosovo census of population conducted in 2011. The findings suggest rather mixed support for the household approach. The hazard to return decreases with income but not nonlinearly. The results indicate that household return migration behaviour is influenced by demographic characteristics, psychic income, and political factors.

  8. On the Empirical Importance of the Conditional Skewness Assumption in Modelling the Relationship between Risk and Return

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pipień, M.

    2008-09-01

    We present the results of an application of Bayesian inference in testing the relation between risk and return on the financial instruments. On the basis of the Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model, proposed by Merton we built a general sampling distribution suitable in analysing this relationship. The most important feature of our assumptions is that the skewness of the conditional distribution of returns is used as an alternative source of relation between risk and return. This general specification relates to Skewed Generalized Autoregressive Conditionally Heteroscedastic-in-Mean model. In order to make conditional distribution of financial returns skewed we considered the unified approach based on the inverse probability integral transformation. In particular, we applied hidden truncation mechanism, inverse scale factors, order statistics concept, Beta and Bernstein distribution transformations and also a constructive method. Based on the daily excess returns on the Warsaw Stock Exchange Index we checked the empirical importance of the conditional skewness assumption on the relation between risk and return on the Warsaw Stock Market. We present posterior probabilities of all competing specifications as well as the posterior analysis of the positive sign of the tested relationship.

  9. Variation of Time Domain Failure Probabilities of Jack-up with Wave Return Periods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Idris, Ahmad; Harahap, Indra S. H.; Ali, Montassir Osman Ahmed

    2018-04-01

    This study evaluated failure probabilities of jack up units on the framework of time dependent reliability analysis using uncertainty from different sea states representing different return period of the design wave. Surface elevation for each sea state was represented by Karhunen-Loeve expansion method using the eigenfunctions of prolate spheroidal wave functions in order to obtain the wave load. The stochastic wave load was propagated on a simplified jack up model developed in commercial software to obtain the structural response due to the wave loading. Analysis of the stochastic response to determine the failure probability in excessive deck displacement in the framework of time dependent reliability analysis was performed by developing Matlab codes in a personal computer. Results from the study indicated that the failure probability increases with increase in the severity of the sea state representing a longer return period. Although the results obtained are in agreement with the results of a study of similar jack up model using time independent method at higher values of maximum allowable deck displacement, it is in contrast at lower values of the criteria where the study reported that failure probability decreases with increase in the severity of the sea state.

  10. Effects of individual pre-fledging traits and environmental conditions on return patterns in juvenile king penguins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saraux, Claire; Viblanc, Vincent A; Hanuise, Nicolas; Le Maho, Yvon; Le Bohec, Céline

    2011-01-01

    Despite the importance of early life stages in individuals' life history and population dynamics, very few studies have focused on the constraints to which these juvenile traits are subjected. Based on 10 years of automatic monitoring of over 2500 individuals, we present the first study on the effects of environmental conditions and individual pre-fledging traits on the post-fledging return of non-banded king penguins to their natal colony. Juvenile king penguins returned exclusively within one of the three austral summers following their departure. A key finding is that return rates (range 68-87%) were much higher than previously assumed for this species, importantly meaning that juvenile survival is very close to that of adults. Such high figures suggest little juvenile dispersal, and selection occurring mostly prior to fledging in king penguins. Pre-fledging conditions had a strong quadratic impact on juvenile return rates. As expected, cohorts reared under very unfavourable years (as inferred by the breeding success of the colony) exhibited low return rates but surprisingly, so did those fledged under very favourable conditions. Juvenile sojourns away from the colony were shorter under warm conditions and subsequent return rates higher, suggesting a positive effect of climate warming. The longer the post-fledging trip (1, 2 or 3 years), the earlier in the summer birds returned to their natal colony and the longer they stayed before leaving for the winter journey. The presence of juveniles in the colony was more than twice the duration required for moulting purposes, yet none attempted breeding in the year of their first return. Juvenile presence in the colony may be important for acquiring knowledge on the social and physical colonial environment and may play an important part in the learning process of mating behaviour. Further studies are required to investigate its potential implications on other life-history traits such as recruitment age.

  11. Estimating of seismic return periods in Laguna Verde Nuclear Power Plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Flores R, J.H.

    1993-01-01

    The study of seismic risk in the site of Laguna Verde Nuclear Power Plant and surroundings was made considering the different periods of seismic return and the probability of occurrence in distinct time intervals (50, 75, 100, 125, 150 years) starting with the distribution of first type of extreme values of Gumbel (G1), the value used for the assessment of lifetime of lump was 50 years, and the rest of the periods are used to evaluate temporary nuclear cemeteries, it is to say for reducing the radioactivity of burned fuel assemblies. The seismic data belongs to the seismicity catalog (1920-1982) elaborated around the site, which average magnitude was 5 in the Richter Scale and are considered as shallow and are located in the Continental crust of North American shelf, and are induced by the pressure of the cocos shelf, being 36 % of the seismic movements of intermediate value and two seismic movements of deep value. (Author)

  12. Estimating return periods of extreme values from relatively short time series of winds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jonasson, Kristjan; Agustsson, Halfdan; Rognvaldsson, Olafur; Arfeuille, Gilles

    2013-04-01

    An important factor for determining the prospect of individual wind farm sites is the frequency of extreme winds at hub height. Here, extreme winds are defined as the value of the highest 10 minutes averaged wind speed with a 50 year return period, i.e. annual exceeding probability of 2% (Rodrigo, 2010). A frequently applied method to estimate winds in the lowest few hundred meters above ground is to extrapolate observed 10-meter winds logarithmically to higher altitudes. Recent study by Drechsel et al. (2012) showed however that this methodology is not as accurate as interpolating simulated results from the global ECMWF numerical weather prediction (NWP) model to the desired height. Observations of persistent low level jets near Colima in SW-Mexico also show that the logarithmic approach can give highly inaccurate results for some regions (Arfeuille et al., 2012). To address these shortcomings of limited, and/or poorly representative, observations and extrapolations of winds one can use NWP models to dynamically scale down relatively coarse resolution atmospheric analysis. In the case of limited computing resources one has typically to make a compromise between spatial resolution and the duration of the simulated period, both of which can limit the quality of the wind farm siting. A common method to estimate maximum winds is to fit an extreme value distribution (e.g. Gumbel, gev or Pareto) to the maximum values of each year of available data, or the tail of these values. If data are only available for a short period, e.g. 10 or 15 years, then this will give a rather inaccurate estimate. It is possible to deal with this problem by utilizing monthly or weekly maxima, but this introduces new problems: seasonal variation, autocorrelation of neighboring values, and increased discrepancy between data and fitted distribution. We introduce a new method to estimate return periods of extreme values of winds at hub height from relatively short time series of winds, simulated

  13. Modelling conditional correlations of asset returns: A smooth transition approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Silvennoinen, Annastiina; Teräsvirta, Timo

    In this paper we propose a new multivariate GARCH model with time-varying conditional correlation structure. The time-varying conditional correlations change smoothly between two extreme states of constant correlations according to a predetermined or exogenous transition variable. An LM-test is d......In this paper we propose a new multivariate GARCH model with time-varying conditional correlation structure. The time-varying conditional correlations change smoothly between two extreme states of constant correlations according to a predetermined or exogenous transition variable. An LM......-test is derived to test the constancy of correlations and LM- and Wald tests to test the hypothesis of partially constant correlations. Analytical expressions for the test statistics and the required derivatives are provided to make computations feasible. An empirical example based on daily return series of ve...

  14. A Comparison of Conditional Volatility Estimators for the ISE National 100 Index Returns

    OpenAIRE

    Köksal, Bülent

    2009-01-01

    We compare more than 1000 different volatility models in terms of their fit to the historical ISE-100 Index data and their forecasting performance of the conditional variance in an out-of-sample setting. Exponential GARCH model of Nelson (1991) with “constant mean, t-distribution, one lag moving average term” specification achieves the best overall performance for modeling the ISE-100 return volatility. The t-distribution seems to characterize the distribution of the heavy tailed returns bett...

  15. Volatility return intervals analysis of the Japanese market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, W.-S.; Wang, F. Z.; Havlin, S.; Kaizoji, T.; Moon, H.-T.; Stanley, H. E.

    2008-03-01

    We investigate scaling and memory effects in return intervals between price volatilities above a certain threshold q for the Japanese stock market using daily and intraday data sets. We find that the distribution of return intervals can be approximated by a scaling function that depends only on the ratio between the return interval τ and its mean . We also find memory effects such that a large (or small) return interval follows a large (or small) interval by investigating the conditional distribution and mean return interval. The results are similar to previous studies of other markets and indicate that similar statistical features appear in different financial markets. We also compare our results between the period before and after the big crash at the end of 1989. We find that scaling and memory effects of the return intervals show similar features although the statistical properties of the returns are different.

  16. Urban flood return period assessment through rainfall-flood response modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Murla, Damian; Thorndahl, Søren Liedtke

    Intense rainfall can often cause severe floods, especially in urbanized areas, where population density or large impermeable areas are found. In this context, floods can generate a direct impact in a social-environmental-economic viewpoint. Traditionally, in design of Urban Drainage Systems (UDS......), correlation between return period (RP) of a given rainfall and RP of its consequent flood has been assumed to be linear (e.g.DS/EN752 (2008)). However, this is not always the case. Complex UDS, where diverse hydraulic infrastructures are often found, increase the heterogeneity of system response, which may...... cause an alteration of the mentioned correlation. Consequently, reliability on future urban planning, design and resilience against floods may be also affected by this misassumption. In this study, an assessment of surface flood RP across rainfall RP has been carried out at Lystrup, a urbanized...

  17. Projected Changes in Temperature and Precipitation Extremes over China as Measured by 50-yr Return Values and Periods Based on a CMIP5 Ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Ying; Gao, Xuejie; Giorgi, Filippo; Zhou, Botao; Shi, Ying; Wu, Jie; Zhang, Yongxiang

    2018-04-01

    Future changes in the 50-yr return level for temperature and precipitation extremes over mainland China are investigated based on a CMIP5 multi-model ensemble for RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The following indices are analyzed: TXx and TNn (the annual maximum and minimum of daily maximum and minimum surface temperature), RX5day (the annual maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation) and CDD (maximum annual number of consecutive dry days). After first validating the model performance, future changes in the 50-yr return values and return periods for these indices are investigated along with the inter-model spread. Multi-model median changes show an increase in the 50-yr return values of TXx and a decrease for TNn, more specifically, by the end of the 21st century under RCP8.5, the present day 50-yr return period of warm events is reduced to 1.2 yr, while extreme cold events over the country are projected to essentially disappear. A general increase in RX5day 50-yr return values is found in the future. By the end of the 21st century under RCP8.5, events of the present RX5day 50-yr return period are projected to reduce to China. Changes in CDD-50 show a dipole pattern over China, with a decrease in the values and longer return periods in the north, and vice versa in the south. Our study also highlights the need for further improvements in the representation of extreme events in climate models to assess the future risks and engineering design related to large-scale infrastructure in China.

  18. Return-to-Work Program for Injured Workers: Factors of Successful Return to Employment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Awang, Halimah; Shahabudin, Sharifah Muhairah; Mansor, Norma

    2016-11-01

    This study examined the factors of successful return to employment among participants in the return to work program (RTW) following work-related injury. Data were obtained from the Social Security Organization database containing 9850 injured workers who underwent RTW in 2010 to 2013. About 65% had successfully returned to employment. Significant factors of successful return include gender, employer interest, motivation, age, intervention duration, and type of injury. Male and motivated employees were more likely to return to employment compared with female and unmotivated employees, respectively. Participants from interested employers were 23.22 times more likely to return to work than those from uninterested employers, whereas participants whose intervention period exceeded 5 months were 41% less likely to return to work compared with those whose intervention period was within 3 months. Appropriate strategy and enhanced collaboration between the stakeholders would improve the proportion of successful return to employment. © 2016 APJPH.

  19. An Exploration of the Factors Considered When Forming Expectations for Returning to Work following Sickness Absence Due to a Musculoskeletal Condition.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amanda E Young

    Full Text Available Workers' own expectations for returning to work following a period of sickness absence have been found to be one of the best predictors of future work status; however, there is a limited understanding of why people expect what they do. The current study was undertaken with the aim of determining what people take into consideration when forming their expectations for returning to work.Thirty-four people (8 women, 26 men, who were off work due to a musculoskeletal condition, participated in one of 14 focus groups. Participants were aged 25 to 65 (M = 45, SD = 12.6, and all had been out of work for 3 months or less.All participants reported expecting to return to work, with the most common timeframe being approximately 30 days (Range = 1 day-12 months. When explaining what they thought about when forming their expectations, participants referenced numerous considerations. Much of what was spoken about could be compartmentalized to reflect features of themselves, their condition, or their broader environmental contexts. Participant's subjective experience of these features influenced his or her expectations. Prominent themes included concerns about employability, a desire to get back to normal, no job to go back to, mixed emotions, re-injury concerns, the judgments of workplace stakeholders, being needed by their employer, waiting for input, until the money runs out, and working out what was in their best interest.Indications are that many of the reported considerations are amenable to intervention, suggesting opportunities to assist workers in the process of returning to work.

  20. Return handling options and order quantities for single period products

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    D. Vlachos (Dimitrios); R. Dekker (Rommert)

    2000-01-01

    textabstractProducts which are sold through E-commerce or mail sales catalogues tend to have a much higher return rate than traditional products. The returns are especially problematic for seasonal products. To support decision making in these situations we study various options, which may be

  1. Time-bound product returns and optimal order quantities for mass merchandisers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Min-Chun; Goh, Mark

    2012-01-01

    The return guidelines for a mass merchandiser usually entail a grace period, a markdown on the original price and the condition of the returned items. This research utilises eight scenarios formed from the variation of possible return guidelines to model the cost functions of single-product categories for a typical mass merchandiser. Models for the eight scenarios are developed and solved with the objective of maximising the expected profit so as to obtain closed form solutions for the associated optimal order quantity. An illustrative example and sensitivity analysis are provided to demonstrate the applicability of the model. Our results show that merchandisers who allow for returns within a time window, albeit with a penalty cost imposed and the returned products being recoverable, should plan for larger order amounts as such products do not affect the business. Similarly, the merchandisers who allow for returns beyond a grace period and without any penalty charges, but where the returned products are irrecoverable, should manage their stocks in this category more judiciously by ordering as little as possible so as to limit the number of returns and carefully consider the effects of their customer satisfaction-guaranteed policies, if any.

  2. 26 CFR 1.6013-2 - Joint return after filing separate return.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... the case of a joint return made under section 6013(b), the period of limitations provided in sections... (c)(1) of this section, relating to the application of sections 6501 and 6651 with respect to a joint... 26 Internal Revenue 13 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Joint return after filing separate return. 1...

  3. Estimation of seismic return periods in the Laguna Verde nuclear plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Flores R, J.H.

    1992-01-01

    The study of seismic risk in the area of the Laguna Verde Nucleo electric plant (PNLV) and its surroundings, one carries out estimating the different return periods and the occurrence probability in different intervals of time (5, 75, 100, 125, 150 years starting from the distribution of first type of Gumbel (G1) of extreme values (Burton, 1986), the value that was used to evaluate the useful life of the PNLV was of 50 years, the other periods will be occupy to evaluate 'temporal' nuclear cemeteries, that is to say for diminish the radioactive activity of the fuel assemblies already burned in the reactor pool or in a near place to the place. The seismic data that were used for the analysis were of the seismic catalog that it was elaborated from (1920-1982), around the place whose seismic half magnitude was of 5 grades Richter and a depth 65 km, these earthquakes are classified as shallow earthquakes, which are located in the continental plaque of North-America, these they are induced by the efforts of push of the plaque of Cocos, existing 36% of intermediate and 2 of deep earthquakes. (Author)

  4. Evaluation of the return periods of water crises and evaporation in Monte Cotugno reservoir (Southern Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Copertino, Vito; Lo Vecchio, Giuseppina; Marotta, Lucia; Pastore, Vittoria; Ponzio, Giuseppe; Scavone, Giuseppina; Telesca, Vito; Vita, Michele

    2010-05-01

    In the past water resources management has been dealt and solved increasing water availabilities; today such opportunities have been considerably reduced and the technical-scientific perspectives are addressed above all to improve water system effectiveness and to promote an use of water resources that holds account of the droughts frequency and based on a correct estimate of the hydrologic balance. In this work a study on the water stored in Monte Cotugno reservoir in Sinni river - Basilicata (Southern Italy) - is proposed, estimating water crises return periods and reservoir evaporation. For such purpose the runs method was applied, based on the comparison between the temporal series of the "water volume" hydrological variable and a threshold representative of the "normal" conditions regarding which the availability in excess or defect was estimated. This allowed to individualize the beginning and the end of a water crisis event and to characterize the droughts in terms of duration, sum deficit and intensity. Therefore the return period was evaluated by means of the methodology proposed by Shiau and Shen in 2001, turned out equal approximately to 6 years. Such value was then verified with a frequency analysis of the "water volume" random variable, using the Weibull's distribution. Subsequently, the Fourier's analysis in the last twenty years was carried out, obtaining the same result of the previous methods. Moreover, in proximity of the Monte Cotugno reservoir the weather station of Senise is located, managed by ALSIA (Agenzia Lucana di Sviluppo e Innovazione in Agricultura), that provides in continuous measurements of air temperature and humidity, wind speed and direction, and global solar radiation since 2000. Such parameters allowed to apply five methods for reservoir evaporation estimate selected from those proposed in the literature, of which the first three, the Jensen-Haise's method, Makkink's method and Stephens-Stewart's one are based on solar radiation

  5. The dynamic correlation between policy uncertainty and stock market returns in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Miao; Jiang, Zhi-Qiang

    2016-11-01

    The dynamic correlation is examined between government's policy uncertainty and Chinese stock market returns in the period from January 1995 to December 2014. We find that the stock market is significantly correlated to policy uncertainty based on the results of the Vector Auto Regression (VAR) and Structural Vector Auto Regression (SVAR) models. In contrast, the results of the Dynamic Conditional Correlation Generalized Multivariate Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (DCC-MGARCH) model surprisingly show a low dynamic correlation coefficient between policy uncertainty and market returns, suggesting that the fluctuations of each variable are greatly influenced by their values in the preceding period. Our analysis highlights the understanding of the dynamical relationship between stock market and fiscal and monetary policy.

  6. Different forms, reasons and motivations for return migration of persons who voluntarily decide to return to their countries of origin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Callea, S

    1986-03-01

    Although the 1973 oil crisis did not have the drastic effects on immigration which were originally feared, it did end a period of quasi-liberal immigration policy, establish intense and effective international cooperation on immigration, and arouse great interest in immigration studies and research. This paper analyzes the situations arising as a result of the petroleum shortage and focuses on the conditions relating to the return of emigrants to Southern European countries. This new research draws attention to the following fundamental aspects of the immigration problem: 1) the emigrant's return to his homeland cannot be considered a factor in development; it is a positive element in development only if the right socioeconomic conditions exist in the country of origin. 2) Concern for children's education is one of the most common reasons for return. 3) A large percentage of emigrants are satisfied with their work abroad. 4) An emigrant's return potential is wasted due to the slight use that is made of the resources he offers. 5) Returning workers most often want to set up an independent enterprise. 6) Savings are generally used to buy a house or farm. 7) Vocational level does not increase significantly between emigration and returning, though this increase becomes greater the longer the emigrant stays abroad. 8) The number of returning emigrants is too slight to bring about any change in the country of origin. 9) Incentives and subsidies to encourage return have not had a considerable impact on the decision to return. Callea recommends that officials of the country of origin posted abroad be assigned to counsel returning emigrants on finding employment, attending vocational development courses, obtaining housing, accruing interests and savings, and on the problems and perspectives of sociocultural reintegration.

  7. Weather effects on the returns and volatility of the Shanghai stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Sang Hoon; Jiang, Zhuhua; Lee, Yeonjeong; Yoon, Seong-Min

    2010-01-01

    This study investigates the weather effects on returns as well as volatility in the Shanghai stock market. In order to analyze the influence of the opening of B-share market to domestic investors, it is assumed that domestic investors are more sensitive to the Shanghai local weather than foreign investors. In doing so, extreme weather condition dummies are generated by using the 21-day and 31-day moving average and its standard deviation. Empirical analysis provides two key results regarding weather effects. First, the weather effect exists in the A-share returns, but does not exist in the B-share returns over the whole period. In addition, the post-opening period shows the strong weather effect on B-share returns only, indicating that the market openness to domestic investors results in the weather effect. Second, the weather effect has a strong influence on the volatility of both A- and B-share returns. Similar to the case of returns, the weather effect on volatility is explained by the openness of B-share market.

  8. Macro factors in oil futures returns

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Le Pen, Yannick; Sevi, Benoit

    2012-01-01

    We investigate the macro factors that can explain the monthly oil futures return for the NYMEX WTI futures contract for the time period 1993:11 to 2010:03. We build a new database of 187 real and nominal macro-economic variables from developed and emerging countries and resort to the large factor approximate model to extract 9 factors from this dataset. We then regress crude oil return on several combinations of these factors. Our best model explains around 38% of the variability of oil futures return. More interestingly, the factor which has the largest influence on crude oil price is related to real variables from emerging countries. This result confirms the latest finding in the literature that the recent evolution in oil price is attributable to change in supply and demand conditions and not to the large increase in trading activity from speculators. (authors)

  9. ENERGY SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT AND LOAD MANAGEMENT THROUGH THE REHABILITATION AND RETURN TO PLAY PROCESS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morrison, Scot; Ward, Patrick; duManoir, Gregory R

    2017-08-01

    Return-to-play from injury is a complex process involving many factors including the balancing of tissue healing rates with the development of biomotor abilities. This process requires interprofessional cooperation to ensure success. An often-overlooked aspect of return-to-play is the development and maintenance of sports specific conditioning while monitoring training load to ensure that the athlete's training stimulus over the rehabilitation period is appropriate to facilitate a successful return to play. The purpose of this clinical commentary is to address the role of energy systems training as part of the return-to-play process. Additionally the aim is to provide practitioners with an overview of practical sports conditioning training methods and monitoring strategies to allow them to direct and quantify the return-to-play process. 5.

  10. Abnormal Stock Market Returns to Announcements of M&A Banking Deals in Greece 1996-2013

    OpenAIRE

    Anastasios KARAMANOS; George BAKATSELOS; Roena AGOLLI

    2015-01-01

    This study has undertaken a comprehensive empirical analysis of the wealth effects of bank M&As in Greece over the period 1996-2013. The purpose is to measure the performance of merger participants over the acquisition period as a deviation of how shareholders’ actual returns differ from expected returns conditional on the particular process of M&A. The authors develop a conceptual framework that integrates theoretical perspectives from economics, finance, organization theory, strateg...

  11. When is return voluntary? Conditions of asylum in Lebanon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amy Keith

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The decision of Syrian refugees in Lebanon to return to Syria must not be based on a deteriorating quality of asylum that creates physical, social and material pressures on decisions to return.

  12. Cross-polarization microwave radar return at severe wind conditions: laboratory model and geophysical model function.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Troitskaya, Yuliya; Abramov, Victor; Ermoshkin, Alexey; Zuikova, Emma; Kazakov, Vassily; Sergeev, Daniil; Kandaurov, Alexandr

    2014-05-01

    Satellite remote sensing is one of the main techniques of monitoring severe weather conditions over the ocean. The principal difficulty of the existing algorithms of retrieving wind based on dependence of microwave backscattering cross-section on wind speed (Geophysical Model Function, GMF) is due to its saturation at winds exceeding 25 - 30 m/s. Recently analysis of dual- and quad-polarization C-band radar return measured from satellite Radarsat-2 suggested that the cross-polarized radar return has much higher sensitivity to the wind speed than co-polarized back scattering [1] and conserved sensitivity to wind speed at hurricane conditions [2]. Since complete collocation of these data was not possible and time difference in flight legs and SAR images acquisition was up to 3 hours, these two sets of data were compared in [2] only statistically. The main purpose of this paper is investigation of the functional dependence of cross-polarized radar cross-section on the wind speed in laboratory experiment. Since cross-polarized radar return is formed due to scattering at small-scale structures of the air-sea interface (short-crested waves, foam, sprays, etc), which are well reproduced in laboratory conditions, then the approach based on laboratory experiment on radar scattering of microwaves at the water surface under hurricane wind looks feasible. The experiments were performed in the Wind-wave flume located on top of the Large Thermostratified Tank of the Institute of Applied Physics, where the airflow was produced in the flume with the straight working part of 10 m and operating cross section 0.40?0.40 sq. m, the axis velocity can be varied from 5 to 25 m/s. Microwave measurements were carried out by a coherent Doppler X-band (3.2 cm) scatterometer with the consequent receive of linear polarizations. Experiments confirmed higher sensitivity to the wind speed of the cross-polarized radar return. Simultaneously parameters of the air flow in the turbulent boundary layer

  13. PIV measurements in a compact return diffuser under multi-conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, L.; Lu, W. G.; Shi, W. D.

    2013-12-01

    Due to the complex three-dimensional geometries of impellers and diffusers, their design is a delicate and difficult task. Slight change could lead to significant changes in hydraulic performance and internal flow structure. Conversely, the grasp of the pump's internal flow pattern could benefit from pump design improvement. The internal flow fields in a compact return diffuser have been investigated experimentally under multi-conditions. A special Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) test rig is designed, and the two-dimensional PIV measurements are successfully conducted in the diffuser mid-plane to capture the complex flow patterns. The analysis of the obtained results has been focused on the flow structure in diffuser, especially under part-load conditions. The vortex and recirculation flow patterns in diffuser are captured and analysed accordingly. Strong flow separation and back flow appeared at the part-load flow rates. Under the design and over-load conditions, the flow fields in diffuser are uniform, and the flow separation and back flow appear at the part-load flow rates, strong back flow is captured at one diffuser passage under 0.2Qdes.

  14. HUBUNGAN RETURN SAHAM DAN INFLASI DI INDONESIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nyoman Triaryati

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The effect of inflation to the stock return research had been held since three decades ago based on GeneralizeFisher’s Hypotheses, but ‘how inflation influenced stock return’ had become a debate until today. In Indonesiamost of the related research used inflation as one of the variables that influenced stock return despite of others inshort period of time. This research investigated the effect of inflation to the stock return in Indonesia within fifteenyears, which was divided into 3 (three periods of time reflecting different economic growth for each of it. Thepurpose of this allotment was to see the consistency how inflation influenced the stock market. Using a secondarydata from monthly inflation and IHSG period 1998 until 2012, included three hundred and sixty observation,simple regression model analyses was applied. This research acknowledged that inflation negatively influencedstock return in a long time period, but it did not exist in the short time period, except when the level of inflationreached 10%. In conclusion, inflation influence on the stock return was not ascertained by how long the investigationwas held but if there was any inflation rate reaching 10% within the period of investigation.

  15. Conditional Cooperation and the Marginal per Capita Return in Public Good Games

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edward J. Cartwright

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available We investigate experimentally whether the extent of conditional cooperation in public good games depends on the marginal per capita return (MPCR to the public good and type of game. The MPCR is varied from 0.2 to 0.4 to 0.8. The ‘standard’ game, in which three players contribute before a follower, is compared with a leader-follower game, in which one player leads and three follow. Even though we observe less conditional cooperation for an MPCR of 0.2, the prevalence of conditional cooperation remains relatively stable to changes in the MPCR and game timing. In contrast, the level of MPCR has a strong effect on unconditional contributions. Our results highlight the critical role played by leaders in a public good game.

  16. Forecasting volatility in gold returns under the GARCH, IGARCH and FIGARCH frameworks: New evidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bentes, Sonia R.

    2015-11-01

    This study employs three volatility models of the GARCH family to examine the volatility behavior of gold returns. Much of the literature on this topic suggests that gold plays a fundamental role as a hedge and safe haven against adverse market conditions, which is particularly relevant in periods of high volatility. This makes understanding gold volatility important for a number of theoretical and empirical applications, namely investment valuation, portfolio selection, risk management, monetary policy-making, futures and option pricing, hedging strategies and value-at-risk (VaR) policies (e.g. Baur and Lucey (2010)). We use daily data from August 2, 1976 to February 6, 2015 and divide the full sample into two periods: the in-sample period (August 2, 1976-October 24, 2008) is used to estimate model coefficients, while the out-of-sample period (October 27, 2008-February 6, 2015) is for forecasting purposes. Specifically, we employ the GARCH(1,1), IGARCH(1,1) and FIGARCH(1, d,1) specifications. The results show that the FIGARCH(1, d,1) is the best model to capture linear dependence in the conditional variance of the gold returns as given by the information criteria. It is also found to be the best model to forecast the volatility of gold returns.

  17. PIV measurements in a compact return diffuser under multi-conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhou, L; Lu, W G; Shi, W D

    2013-01-01

    Due to the complex three-dimensional geometries of impellers and diffusers, their design is a delicate and difficult task. Slight change could lead to significant changes in hydraulic performance and internal flow structure. Conversely, the grasp of the pump's internal flow pattern could benefit from pump design improvement. The internal flow fields in a compact return diffuser have been investigated experimentally under multi-conditions. A special Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) test rig is designed, and the two-dimensional PIV measurements are successfully conducted in the diffuser mid-plane to capture the complex flow patterns. The analysis of the obtained results has been focused on the flow structure in diffuser, especially under part-load conditions. The vortex and recirculation flow patterns in diffuser are captured and analysed accordingly. Strong flow separation and back flow appeared at the part-load flow rates. Under the design and over-load conditions, the flow fields in diffuser are uniform, and the flow separation and back flow appear at the part-load flow rates, strong back flow is captured at one diffuser passage under 0.2Q des

  18. [Return to Work from Vocational RetrainingA Long-Term Analysis of Individual Trajectories: Biografical and Structural Conditions of Success and Failure].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meschnig, Alexander; von Kardorff, Ernst; Klaus, Sebastian

    2018-03-28

    The study aimed at the reconstruction of the trajectories of participants of a two-year vocational-retraining into new workplaces thereby identifying favourable and risky conditions of the return-to-work process. From a practical point of view the study identified special needs and necessities for after-care facilities. A Mixed-Method-Design was used. Quantitatively the follow-up-study included 214 persons who participated for three times on filling out a questionnaire over a period of eighteen months after the end of the vocational retraining. In the qualitative part of the study thirty persons consented to participate in a narrative-episodic interview on their vocational biography, their illness experiences at work and their way back into work. The study focused on the experiences of the participants from within, on their decision-making, coping, and rearrangement processes as well as on the experienced support from family members and rehabilitation professionals. About 75% of the participants of the vocational retraining succeeded in getting a job within the range of 18 months after finishing the retraining. Indicators for successful Return to Work are a high identification with the new vocation, effective coping with the remaining health problems, and an accepted arrangement with the disabilities in the work place and in everyday-life, a positive anticipation of the health condition in the future, and last but not least a satisfying social inclusion. As specific risk constellations for Return to Work emerged a lack of partnership, unfinished mental coping with the illness, negative subjective health prognosis, and a more passive attitude to life. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

  19. Women in post-trafficking services in moldova: diagnostic interviews over two time periods to assess returning women's mental health

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gorceag Lilia T

    2011-04-01

    found to have co-morbid PTSD or other forms of anxiety and depression immediately post-return should be offered evidenced-based mental health treatment for at least the standard 12-month period of rehabilitation.

  20. Holding Period Return-Risk Modeling: The Importance of Dividends

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    W.G.P.M. Hallerbach (Winfried)

    2003-01-01

    textabstractIn this paper we explore the relevance of dividends in the total equity return over longer time horizons. In addition, we investigate the effects of different reinvestment assumptions of dividends. We use a unique set of revised and corrected US equity data series, comprising monthly

  1. Leaving from and returning to nursing practice: contributing factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jamieson, Isabel; Taua, Chris

    2009-07-01

    Many nurses leave nursing and never return. Others return after a period of time. Given the global shortage of nurses a better understanding of these movements is needed. The present study focused on nurses who had been out of nursing for more than five years, and explored factors that influenced their leaving and return to practice. All the nurses who had undertaken a Competency Assessment Programme at a given New Zealand tertiary institution during 2005 were invited to participate. Of the 70 questionnaires mailed out 32 (44.5%) were completed and returned. Quantitative data were analysed using Microsoft Excel, and the qualitative data were coded and analysed by means of content analysis. For each, leaving and returning, three key issues emerged. Nurses left for personal reasons, to seek a career change, or because of poor working conditions. They returned when they had the personal freedom to do so, for fiscal reasons, or because they were motivated by some sense of unfinished business. These findings indicate that it is important for educators involved with Competency Assessment Programmes to collaborate with employers in ensuring that there are opportunities for re-entry to positive work environments, with a degree of flexibility that suits the demographic characteristics of those nurses returning to practice.

  2. Determining Storm Surge Return Periods: The Use of Evidence of Historic Events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Kristine S.; Sørensen, Carlo Sass; Schmith, Torben

    for tide gauge measurements, with 120 years of data available for the calculations. However, the oldest of these tide gauge stations was set up after a major storm surge in 1872, and no events of similar severity have occurred since. Including the evidence of the historic events from the 18th century...... changes the return period statistics, with a best estimate of a 100 year event changing from 1.5 meters (Sørensen et al. 2013) to 2.6 [2.2 – 2.8] meters (present study) in Køge just south of Copenhagen. Thus, with the tide gauge-based statistics, the storm surge on January 4 2017 was a 100 year event......, but with the revised statistics using historic evidence, much larger events can be expected. Further, we assess the very large impact of sea level rise on the storm surge statistics. As an example, according to the official statistics of southern Copenhagen, the flooding of a present day 100 year event...

  3. A new method for estimating maximum wind gust speed with a given return period and a high areal resolution

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Pop, Lukáš; Sokol, Zbyněk; Hanslian, David

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 158, November (2016), s. 51-60 ISSN 0167-6105 R&D Projects: GA ČR GAP504/10/0843 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : wind gusts * extreme wind map * return period * gumbel distribution * extreme value analysis Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 2.049, year: 2016 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167610515301677

  4. Electronic trading system and returns volatility in the oil futures market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liao, Huei-Chu; Lee, Yi-Huey; Suen, Yu-Bo

    2008-01-01

    This paper uses daily Brent crude prices to investigate the employment of electronic trading on the returns conditional volatility in the oil futures market. After a suitable GARCH model is established, the conditional volatility series are found. The Bai and Perron model is then used to find two significant structural breaks for these conditional volatility series around two implementation dates of electronic trading. This result indicates that the change in the trading system has significant impacts on the returns volatility since our estimated second break date is very close to the all-electronic trade implementation date. Moreover, the conditional volatility in the all-electronic trading period is found to be more dominated by the temporal persistence rather than the volatility clustering effect. All these evidence can shed some light for explaining the high relationship between more volatile world oil price and the more popular electronic trade. (author)

  5. Periodic solutions of asymptotically linear Hamiltonian systems without twist conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cheng Rong [Coll. of Mathematics and Physics, Nanjing Univ. of Information Science and Tech., Nanjing (China); Dept. of Mathematics, Southeast Univ., Nanjing (China); Zhang Dongfeng [Dept. of Mathematics, Southeast Univ., Nanjing (China)

    2010-05-15

    In dynamical system theory, especially in many fields of applications from mechanics, Hamiltonian systems play an important role, since many related equations in mechanics can be written in an Hamiltonian form. In this paper, we study the existence of periodic solutions for a class of Hamiltonian systems. By applying the Galerkin approximation method together with a result of critical point theory, we establish the existence of periodic solutions of asymptotically linear Hamiltonian systems without twist conditions. Twist conditions play crucial roles in the study of periodic solutions for asymptotically linear Hamiltonian systems. The lack of twist conditions brings some difficulty to the study. To the authors' knowledge, very little is known about the case, where twist conditions do not hold. (orig.)

  6. Studies of phase return map and symbolic dynamics in a periodically driven Hodgkin—Huxley neuron

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ding Jiong; Zhang Hong; Tong Qin-Ye; Chen Zhuo

    2014-01-01

    How neuronal spike trains encode external information is a hot topic in neurodynamics studies. In this paper, we investigate the dynamical states of the Hodgkin—Huxley neuron under periodic forcing. Depending on the parameters of the stimulus, the neuron exhibits periodic, quasiperiodic and chaotic spike trains. In order to analyze these spike trains quantitatively, we use the phase return map to describe the dynamical behavior on a one-dimensional (1D) map. According to the monotonicity or discontinuous point of the 1D map, the spike trains are transformed into symbolic sequences by implementing a coarse-grained algorithm — symbolic dynamics. Based on the ordering rules of symbolic dynamics, the parameters of the external stimulus can be measured in high resolution with finite length symbolic sequences. A reasonable explanation for why the nervous system can discriminate or cognize the small change of the external signals in a short time is also presented. (general)

  7. ANALISIS PENGARUH LDR, NPL DAN OPERATIONAL EFFICIENCY RATIO TERHADAP RETURN ON ASSETS PADA BANK DEVISA DI INDONESIA PERIODE 2010-2012

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hamidah Hamidah

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available This research is performed on order to test analysis the influence of the Loan to Deposit Ratio (LDR, Non Performing Loan (NPL and Operational Efficiency Ratio (OER toward Return On Asset (ROA On Foreign Exchange Banks In Indonesia Period 2010-2012. Methodology research as the sample used purposive sampling, sample was accrued from foreign banks in Indonesia. Data analysis with multi linear regression of ordinary least square and hypotheses test used t-statistic and F statistic, a classic assumption examination to test the hypotheses.Based on normality test, multicolinearity test, heterosskedasticity test and auto correlation test were not found variables that deviate from the classical assumptions, this indicate that the available data has fulfill the condition to use multi linear regression model. This result of research show that variable LDR and NPL partially have positive influence but not significant toward ROA. Variable OERpartially have negative significant influence toward ROA. Variable LDR, NPL and OER simultaneously have significant influence toward ROA.

  8. Return momentum effect on reactor coolant water level distribution during mid-loop conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seo, Jae Kwang; Yang, Jae Young; Park, Goon Cherl

    2001-01-01

    An accurate prediction of the Reactor Coolant System( RCS) water level is of importance in the determination of the allowable operating range to ensure safety during mid-loop operations. However, complex hydrualic phenomena induced by the Shutdown Cooling System (SCS) return momentum causes different water levels from those in the loop where the water level indicators are located. This was apparently observed at the pre-core cold hydro test of the Younggwang Nuclear Unit 3 (YGN 3) in Korea. In this study, in order to analytically understand the effect of the SCS return momentum on the RCS water level distribution, a model using a one-dimensional momentum and energy conservation for cylindrical channel, hydraulic jump in operating cold leg, water level build-up at the Reactor Vessel (RV) inlet nozzle, Bernoulli constant in downcomer region, and total water volume conservation has been developed. The model predicts the RCS water levels at various RCS locations during the mid-loop conditions and the calculation results were compared with the test data. The analysis shows that the hydraulic jump in the operating cold legs, in conjuction with the pressure drop throughout the RCS, is the main cause creating the water level differences at various RCS locations. The prediction results provide good explanations for the test data and show the significant effect of the SCS return momentum on the RCS water levels

  9. Hydroclimatic conditions preceding the March 2014 Oso landslide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henn, Brian; Cao, Qian; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.; Magirl, Christopher S.; Mass, Clifford; Bower, J. Brent; St. Laurent, Michael; Mao, Yixin; Perica, Sanja

    2015-01-01

    The 22 March 2014 Oso landslide was one of the deadliest in U.S. history, resulting in 43 fatalities and the destruction of more than 40 structures. We examine synoptic conditions, precipitation records and soil moisture reconstructions in the days, months, and years preceding the landslide. Atmospheric reanalysis shows a period of enhanced moisture transport to the Pacific Northwest beginning on 11 February 2014. The 21- to 42-day periods prior to the landslide had anomalously high precipitation; we estimate that 300-400 mm of precipitation fell at Oso in the 21 days prior to the landslide. Relative only to historical periods ending on 22 March, the return periods of these precipitation accumulations are large (25-88 years). However, relative to the largest accumulations from any time of the year (annual maxima), return periods are more modest (2-6 years). In addition to the 21-42 days prior to the landslide, there is a secondary maximum in the precipitation return periods for the 4 years preceding the landslide. Reconstructed soil moisture was anomalously high prior to the landslide, with a return period that exceeded 40 years about a week before the event.

  10. Equity Returns and Volatilities Before and After the 2007-08 Financial Crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dedi Lidija

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the linkages among equity markets of four European countries (Germany, France, Italy, UK and the USA in terms of market returns and transmission of volatilities. We use daily exchange traded funds (ETF data from January 2002 to March 2016 and utilize both a Multivariate Autoregressive Moving Average model (MARMA and a Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity model (GARCH. We divided the data into three separate periods: before the 2007-08 financial crisis, during the crisis and after the crisis. The results show the existence of significant co-movement of returns in all three selected periods although some important differences before and after the financial crisis are noted. Findings also include marked increases in integration of the markets and thus diminishing diversification opportunities for investors. Volatilities appear to react strongly to market movements and their shocks fade away slowly in all five countries during the crisis period. There is also strong evidence of volatility spillovers particularly during and after the crisis periods.

  11. Expert consensus on facilitators and barriers to return-to-work following surgery for non-traumatic upper extremity conditions: a Delphi study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peters, S E; Johnston, V; Ross, M; Coppieters, M W

    2017-02-01

    This Delphi study aimed to reach consensus on important facilitators and barriers for return-to-work following surgery for non-traumatic upper extremity conditions. In Round 1, experts ( n = 42) listed 134 factors, which were appraised in Rounds 2 and 3. Consensus (⩾85% agreement) was achieved for 13 facilitators (high motivation to return-to-work; high self-efficacy for return-to-work and recovery; availability of modified/alternative duties; flexible return-to-work arrangements; positive coping skills; limited heavy work exertion; supportive return-to-work policies; supportive supervisor/management; no catastrophic thinking; no fear avoidance to return-to-work; no fear avoidance to pain/activity; return to meaningful work duties; high job satisfaction) and six barriers (mood disorder diagnosis; pain/symptoms at more than one musculoskeletal site; heavy upper extremity exertions at work; lack of flexible return-to-work arrangements; lack of support from supervisor/management; high level of pain catastrophizing). Future prognostic studies are required to validate these biopsychosocial factors to further improve return-to-work outcomes. V.

  12. The structure of occupational health nurses' support for return-to-work to workers with depression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hatanaka, Junko

    2016-07-29

    The present study aimed to explore the structure of occupational health nurses' support for return-to-work to workers with depression. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 10 occupational health nurses who support workers returning to work. Data were analyzed using the Modified Grounded Theory Approach. The qualitatively analyzed data was grouped into 9 categories. The support for return-to-work was divided into 3 periods: (1) the first priority for recovery, (2) preparation for return-to-work, and (3) adaptation to work. There were indirect supports to workers such as "environmental arrangement for medical treatment," "connection," and "support form parties concerned about workers," and direct supports such as "readiness for medical treatment," "overcoming social and psychological problems," and "working life independence. " Direct support was facilitated by "construction of the relationship. " The occupational health nurses' philosophy was to support "profitable return-to-work for both the worker and the employer. " These processes were "support of confidence recovery process " to regain confidence lost through absence from work because of depression and to accomplish a smooth return-to-work. There were problems in each period corresponding to the return-to-work conditions, and occupational health nurses supported the employees in overcoming each problem. Moreover, it was said that cooperation with the parties concerned in the office would greatly influence the success or failure in the return-to-work support, and it was thought that direct supports and indirect supports to employees with respect to adjustment with the parties concerned in the office were necessary. The structure of occupational health nurses' supports was to support the confidence recovery process of workers by indirect and direct support at each period of return-to-work.

  13. Remanufacturing lot-sizing under alternative perceptions of returned units' quality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zikopoulos, C.

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available One of the critical parameters in reverse supply chain management is the increased variability of the quality condition of used, returned products. The volatile nature of returns' quality often dictates the establishment of quality assessment procedures and the development of technologies that facilitate the fast, accurate and inexpensive classification of returns. The appropriate degree in which a firm has to allocate resources for acquiring information on the quality of returned units, naturally, depends on the anticipated improvement of recovery activities' profitability. Therefore, the quantification of the savings associated with confronting or resolving quality uncertainty is a necessary input during the determination of the proper recovery procedures' configuration. In the current paper, we study a remanufacturing system in a multi-period setting in which returns' quality information is exploited during remanufacturing planning. However, in the decision-making process, certain aspects of the problem examined, such as the quantification of shortage cost, are overlooked or simplified. The objective is to examine the advisability of acquiring advanced quality information in order to be used during sub-optimal decision-making processes, in comparison with alternative policies which do not take explicitly into account returns' quality information. Moreover, through an extensive numerical analysis we examine the implications of alternative considerations regarding returned units' quality on remanufacturing planning, lead-time and service-levels and evaluate their impact on the overall system operational cost.

  14. High-resolution refinement of a storm loss model and estimation of return periods of loss-intensive storms over Germany

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. G. Donat

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available A refined model for the calculation of storm losses is presented, making use of high-resolution insurance loss records for Germany and allowing loss estimates on a spatial level of administrative districts and for single storm events. Storm losses are calculated on the basis of wind speeds from both ERA-Interim and NCEP reanalyses. The loss model reproduces the spatial distribution of observed losses well by taking specific regional loss characteristics into account. This also permits high-accuracy estimates of total cumulated losses, though slightly underestimating the country-wide loss sums for storm "Kyrill", the most severe event in the insurance loss records from 1997 to 2007. A larger deviation, which is assigned to the relatively coarse resolution of the NCEP reanalysis, is only found for one specific rather small-scale event, not adequately captured by this dataset.

    The loss model is subsequently applied to the complete reanalysis period to extend the storm event catalogue to cover years when no systematic insurance records are available. This allows the consideration of loss-intensive storm events back to 1948, enlarging the event catalogue to cover the recent 60+ years, and to investigate the statistical characteristics of severe storm loss events in Germany based on a larger sample than provided by the insurance records only. Extreme value analysis is applied to the loss data to estimate the return periods of loss-intensive storms, yielding a return period for storm "Kyrill", for example, of approximately 15 to 21 years.

  15. Return to nucleate boiling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shumway, R.W.

    1985-01-01

    This paper presents a collection of TMIN (temperature of return to nucleate boiling) correlations, evaluates them under several conditions, and compares them with a wide range of data. Purpose is to obtain the best one for use in a water reactor safety computer simulator known as TRAC-B. Return to nucleate boiling can occur in a reactor accident at either high or low pressure and flow rates. Most of the correlations yield unrealistic results under some conditions. A new correlation is proposed which overcomes many of the deficiencies

  16. Conditional CAPM and an Application on the ISE

    OpenAIRE

    Yalcin Karatepe; Elif Karaaslan; Fazil Gokgoz

    2002-01-01

    In the empirical studies carried out on standard CAPM, widely used in finance literature, it has been argued that static CAPM could not entirely explain the portfolio returns. One of the assumptions for one period application is that the beta coefficients of assets are assumed to be constant over time. However, in a dynamic world the expected returns and betas deviate over time. In this study, returns of ISE-30 securities have been estimated by employing conditional CAPM; it has been found th...

  17. Applying principles of self-management to facilitate workers to return to or remain at work with a chronic musculoskeletal condition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnston, Venerina; Jull, Gwendolen; Sheppard, Dianne M; Ellis, Niki

    2013-08-01

    It is incumbent on health care professionals to support patients with chronic musculoskeletal conditions to manage the impact of the condition on their life. Work is a positive health behaviour for which self-management skills are essential. In this paper, self-management is defined and the role of clinicians in promoting self-management for return to work is outlined with examples and tips on how the clinician can incorporate self-management into practice. The clinician is ideally placed to assist individuals with chronic musculoskeletal conditions manage to remain at work or return to work. This can be achieved through such activities as the promotion of the core self-management skills of problem-solving, decision making, resource utilisation, developing a cooperative partnership between clinician and patient and making an action plan. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Time-Varying Periodicity in Intraday Volatility

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Torben Gustav; Thyrsgaard, Martin; Todorov, Viktor

    We develop a nonparametric test for deciding whether return volatility exhibits time-varying intraday periodicity using a long time-series of high-frequency data. Our null hypothesis, commonly adopted in work on volatility modeling, is that volatility follows a stationary process combined...... with a constant time-of-day periodic component. We first construct time-of-day volatility estimates and studentize the high-frequency returns with these periodic components. If the intraday volatility periodicity is invariant over time, then the distribution of the studentized returns should be identical across...... with estimating volatility moments through their sample counterparts. Critical values are computed via easy-to-implement simulation. In an empirical application to S&P 500 index returns, we find strong evidence for variation in the intraday volatility pattern driven in part by the current level of volatility...

  19. ANALYSING TURKISH INDIVIDUAL PENSION SYSTEM FEES AND RETURNS

    OpenAIRE

    Peker, Ibrahim

    2018-01-01

    This study aims at categorizing, computing and analyzing fees and costs in Turkish Individual Pension System. To this end, net real returns after all costs were computed and these returns were compared with the disclosed fees and returns. Generally in practice, only fund management fees are taken into consideration for calculating net returns and with this method net annual average (geometric) return of the system is calculated as 2.01% for the 2008-2014 period. However, the results of this s...

  20. Initial conditions of urban permeable surfaces in rainfall-runoff models using Horton’s infiltration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Davidsen, Steffen; Löwe, Roland; Høegh Ravn, Nanna

    2017-01-01

    Infiltration is a key process controlling runoff, but varies depending on antecedent conditions. This study provides estimates on initial conditions for urban permeable surfaces via continuous simulation of the infiltration capacity using historical rain data. An analysis of historical rainfall...... records show that accumulated rainfall prior to large rain events does not depend on the return period of the event. Using an infiltration-runoff model we found that for a typical large rain storm, antecedent conditions in general lead to reduced infiltration capacity both for sandy and clayey soils...... and that there is substantial runoff for return periods above 1–10 years....

  1. Periodic Boundary Conditions in the ALEGRA Finite Element Code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aidun, John B.; Robinson, Allen C.; Weatherby, Joe R.

    1999-01-01

    This document describes the implementation of periodic boundary conditions in the ALEGRA finite element code. ALEGRA is an arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian multi-physics code with both explicit and implicit numerical algorithms. The periodic boundary implementation requires a consistent set of boundary input sets which are used to describe virtual periodic regions. The implementation is noninvasive to the majority of the ALEGRA coding and is based on the distributed memory parallel framework in ALEGRA. The technique involves extending the ghost element concept for interprocessor boundary communications in ALEGRA to additionally support on- and off-processor periodic boundary communications. The user interface, algorithmic details and sample computations are given

  2. Value at Risk and Hedge Fund Return - Does High Risk Bring High Return?

    OpenAIRE

    Jing, Tao; Zhao, Hongxiang

    2010-01-01

    This paper mainly focuses on the correlation between live hedge fund return and their value at risk (VaR), and is based on the historical data from May 2000 to April 2010. The authors adopt portfolio level analyses and fund level cross-sectional regression, and find that there is significant positive correlation, both statistically and economically, between the hedge fund return and VaRs (parametric, non-parametric and GARCH). Further research is conducted by sub-dividing the overall period i...

  3. ANALISIS PENGARUH LDR, NPL DAN OPERATIONAL EFFICIENCY RATIO TERHADAP RETURN ON ASSETS PADA BANK DEVISA DI INDONESIA PERIODE 2010-2012

    OpenAIRE

    Hamidah Hamidah; Goldan Merion Siallagan; Umi Mardiyati

    2014-01-01

    This research is performed on order to test analysis the influence of the Loan to Deposit Ratio (LDR), Non Performing Loan (NPL) and Operational Efficiency Ratio (OER) toward Return On Asset (ROA) On Foreign Exchange Banks In Indonesia Period 2010-2012. Methodology research as the sample used purposive sampling, samplewas accured fromforeign banks in Indonesia. Data analysis with multi liniearregression of ordinary least square and hypotheses test used t-statistic and Fstatistic, a classic as...

  4. Molecular Dynamics with Helical Periodic Boundary Conditions

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kessler, Jiří; Bouř, Petr

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 35, č. 21 (2014), s. 1552-1559 ISSN 0192-8651 R&D Projects: GA ČR GAP208/11/0105; GA MŠk(CZ) LH11033 Grant - others:GA AV ČR(CZ) M200551205; GA MŠk(CZ) LM2010005 Institutional support: RVO:61388963 Keywords : periodic boundary conditions * helical symmetry * molecular dynamics * protein structure * amyloid fibrils Subject RIV: CF - Physical ; Theoretical Chemistry Impact factor: 3.589, year: 2014

  5. Investment Strategy Based on Aviation Accidents: Are there abnormal returns?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcos Rosa Costa

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available This article investigates whether an investment strategy based on aviation accidents can generate abnormal returns. We performed an event study considering all the aviation accidents with more than 10 fatalities in the period from 1998 to 2009 and the stock market performance of the respective airlines and aircraft manufacturers in the days after the event. The tests performed were based on the model of Campbell, Lo & MacKinlay (1997 for definition of abnormal returns, by means of linear regression between the firms’ stock returns and the return of a market portfolio used as a benchmark. This enabled projecting the expected future returns of the airlines and aircraft makers, for comparison with the observed returns after each event. The result obtained suggests that an investment strategy based on aviation accidents is feasible because abnormal returns can be obtained in the period immediately following an aviation disaster.

  6. Risk-return of Belgian SRI funds

    OpenAIRE

    Van Liedekerke, Luc; De Moor, Lieven; Vanwalleghem, Dieter

    2007-01-01

    We analyse the risk-return profile of Belgian SRI funds versus conventional investment funds. We apply a four-factor conditional Carhart model to establish whether there are significant differences in risk-return profile between an SRI portfolio and a conventional portfolio and test for learning effects in SRI funds. We show that there is no difference in risk-return profile between SRI and conventional funds. If return is not the problem, then what is it that limits the development of an SRI...

  7. Probabilistic Models For Earthquakes With Large Return Periods In Himalaya Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaudhary, Chhavi; Sharma, Mukat Lal

    2017-12-01

    Determination of the frequency of large earthquakes is of paramount importance for seismic risk assessment as large events contribute to significant fraction of the total deformation and these long return period events with low probability of occurrence are not easily captured by classical distributions. Generally, with a small catalogue these larger events follow different distribution function from the smaller and intermediate events. It is thus of special importance to use statistical methods that analyse as closely as possible the range of its extreme values or the tail of the distributions in addition to the main distributions. The generalised Pareto distribution family is widely used for modelling the events which are crossing a specified threshold value. The Pareto, Truncated Pareto, and Tapered Pareto are the special cases of the generalised Pareto family. In this work, the probability of earthquake occurrence has been estimated using the Pareto, Truncated Pareto, and Tapered Pareto distributions. As a case study, the Himalayas whose orogeny lies in generation of large earthquakes and which is one of the most active zones of the world, has been considered. The whole Himalayan region has been divided into five seismic source zones according to seismotectonic and clustering of events. Estimated probabilities of occurrence of earthquakes have also been compared with the modified Gutenberg-Richter distribution and the characteristics recurrence distribution. The statistical analysis reveals that the Tapered Pareto distribution better describes seismicity for the seismic source zones in comparison to other distributions considered in the present study.

  8. Bond return predictability in expansions and recessions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Engsted, Tom; Møller, Stig Vinther; Jensen, Magnus David Sander

    We document that over the period 1953-2011 US bond returns are predictable in expansionary periods but unpredictable during recessions. This result holds in both in-sample and out-of-sample analyses and using both univariate regressions and combination forecasting techniques. A simulation study...... but negative in recessions. The results are also consistent with tests showing that the expectations hypothesis of the term structure holds in recessions but not in expansions. However, the results for bonds are in sharp contrast to results for stocks showing that stock returns are predictable in recessions...... but not in expansions. Thus, our results indicate that there is not a common predictive pattern of stock and bond returns associated with the state of the economy....

  9. Pengaruh Rasio Modal Saham Terhadap Return Saham Perusahaan-Perusahaan Telekomunikasi Go Public di Indonesia Periode 2007

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Wijaya

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this research is to know the influence of market value ratio to return in the telecommunication go public companies in Indonesia. This research uses multiple regression linear method, examination of hypothesis by using t test, F test and R2 test. The result of this analysis indicates that simultaneously all independent variables (ROE, PER, BVPS, and PTBV do not have a positive and significant effect to dependent variable (return. It means that return variable influenced by other variables which do not included in this research. Partially, all independent variables (ROE, PER, BVPS, and PTBV do not have a positive and significant effect to dependent variable (return Abstract in Bahasa Indonesia: Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui pengaruh rasio modal saham terhadap return pada perusahaan-perusahaan telekomunikasi terbuka di Indonesia. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode analisis regresi linier berganda, pengujian hipotesis dengan menggunakan uji t, uji F, dan uji R2. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa secara simultan (secara bersama-sama, semua variabel independen (ROE, PER, BVPS, dan PTBV secara signifikan dan positif tidak memiliki pengaruh terhadap variabel dependen (return. Hal ini berarti bahwa variabel return dipengaruhi oleh variabel-variabel lain yang tidak termasuk dalam penelitian ini. Secara parsial, semua variabel independen (ROE, PER, BVPS, dan PTBV tidak memiliki pengaruh secara signifikan dan positif terhadap variabel dependen (Return. Kata kunci: Laba atas ekuitas, harga-laba, nilai buku per lembar saham, harga saham per nilai buku, imbal hasil

  10. A conditional extreme value theory approach in value-at-risk forecasting: Evidence from Southeastern Europe and USA market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Totić Selena

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available As a consequence of the recent financial crisis, the adequacy of different Value-at-Risk (VaR methodologies was heavily questioned. Current practice in VaR assessment relies on modeling the whole distribution of returns. As an alternative, in this paper we model tail behavior of returns, and thus VaR, using conditional Extreme Value Theory (EVT, which combines EVT and GARCH methodology. Moreover, we examine the performance of conditional EVT with the daily returns of seven stock market indices, of which six are from Southeastern Europe (BelexLine, BET, BUX, CROBEX, SBITOP, SOFIX from the period of September 2004 - April 2013, and one from USA market (Standard&Poors 500 Index from the period January 1998 - April 2013. Backtesting of historical daily returns proves that conditional EVT model gives good predictions for all indices and for all confidence levels.

  11. Sealed Planetary Return Canister (SPRC), Phase II

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Sample return missions have primary importance in future planetary missions. A basic requirement is that samples be returned in pristine, uncontaminated condition,...

  12. Risk-Return Trade-Off for European Stock Markets

    OpenAIRE

    Aslanidis, Nektarios; Christiansen, Charlotte; Savva, Christos S.

    2015-01-01

    This paper adopts dynamic factor models with macro-finance predictors to revisit the intertemporal risk-return relation in five large European stock markets. We identify country specific, Euro area, and global factors to determine the conditional moments of returns considering the role of higher-order moments as additional measures of risk. The preferred combination of factors varies across countries. In the linear model, there is a strong but negative relation between conditional returns and...

  13. Stock returns and foreign investment in Brazil

    OpenAIRE

    Reis, Luciana; Meurer, Roberto; Da Silva, Sergio

    2008-01-01

    We examine the relationship between stock returns and foreign investment in Brazil, and find that the inflows of foreign investment boosted the returns from 1995 to 2005. There was a strong contemporaneous correlation, although not Granger-causality. Foreign investment along with the exchange rate, the influence of the world stock markets, and country risk can explain 73 percent of the changes that occurred in the stock returns over the period. We also find that positive feedback trading play...

  14. INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP LEVEL AND RISK-ADJUSTED RETURN

    OpenAIRE

    Isaiah, Chioma; Li, Meng (Emma)

    2017-01-01

    This paper examines the relationship between the level of institutional ownership andrisk-adjusted return on stocks. We find a significant positive relationship between the level ofinstitutional ownership on a stock and its risk-adjusted return. This result holds both in the longrun and in shorter time periods. Our findings suggest that all things being equal, it is possible toobtain risk-adjusted return by going short on the stocks with low institutional ownership andgoing long on those with...

  15. The Information Content of Corridor Volatility Measures During Calm and Turmoil Periods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elyas Elyasiani

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Measurement of volatility is of paramount importance in finance because of the effects on risk measurement and risk management. Corridor implied volatility measures allow us to disentangle the volatility of positive returns from that of negative returns, providing investors with additional information beyond standard market volatility. The aim of the paper is twofold. First, to propose different types of corridor implied volatility and some combinations of them as risk indicators, in order to provide useful information about investors’ sentiment and future market returns. Second, to investigate their usefulness in prediction of market returns under different market conditions (with a particular focus on the subprime crisis and the European debt crisis. The data set consists of daily index options traded on the Italian market and covers the 2005–2014 period. We find that upside corridor implied volatility measure embeds the highest information content about contemporaneous market returns, claiming the superiority of call options in measuring current sentiment in the market. Moreover, both upside and downside volatilities can be considered as barometers of investors’ fear. The volatility measures proposed have forecasting power on future returns only during high volatility periods and in particular during the European debt crisis. The explanatory power on future market returns improves when two of the proposed volatility measures are combined together in the same model.

  16. Return Migration as Failure or Success?: The Determinants of Return Migration Intentions Among Moroccan Migrants in Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Haas, Hein; Fokkema, Tineke; Fihri, Mohamed Fassi

    Different migration theories generate competing hypotheses with regard to determinants of return migration. While neoclassical migration theory associates migration to the failure to integrate at the destination, the new economics of labour migration sees return migration as the logical stage after migrants have earned sufficient assets and knowledge and to invest in their origin countries. The projected return is then likely to be postponed for sustained or indefinite periods if integration is unsuccessful. So, from an indication or result of integration failure return is rather seen as a measure of success. Drawing on recent survey data ( N  = 2,832), this article tests these hypotheses by examining the main determinants of return intention among Moroccan migrants across Europe. The results indicate that structural integration through labour market participation, education and the maintenance of economic and social ties with receiving countries do not significantly affect return intentions. At the same time, investments and social ties to Morocco are positively related, and socio-cultural integration in receiving countries is negatively related to return migration intentions. The mixed results corroborate the idea that there is no uniform process of (return) migration and that competing theories might therefore be partly complementary.

  17. Detecting The Expected Rate of Return Volatility of Financing Instruments of Indonesian Islamic Banking through GARCH Modeling (Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nurul Huda

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Objective - Islamic banks are banks which its activities, both fund raising and funds distribution are on the basis of Islamic principles, namely buying and selling and profit sharing. Islamic banking is aimed at supporting the implementation of national development in order to improve justice, togetherness, and equitable distribution of welfare. In pursuit of supporting the implementation of national development, Islamic banking often faced stability problems of financing instruments being operated. In this case, it is measured by the gap between the actual rate of return and the expected rate of return. The individual actual RoR of this instrument will generate an expected rate of return. This raises the gap or difference between the actual rate of return and the expected rate of return of individual instruments, which in this case is called the abnormal rate of return. The stability of abnormal rate of return of individual instruments is certainly influenced by the stability of the expected rate of return. Expected rate of return has a volatility or fluctuation levels for each financing instrument. It is also a key element or material basis for the establishment of a variance of individual instruments. Variance in this case indicates the level of uncertainty of the rate of return. Individual variance is the origin of the instrument base for variance in the portfolio finance that further a portfolio analysis. So, this paper is going to analyze the level of expected RoR volatility as an initial step to see and predict the stability of the fluctuations in the rate of return of Indonesian Islamic financing instruments.Methods – Probability of Occurence, Expected Rate of Return (RoR and GARCH (Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity.Results - The expected RoR volatility of the murabaha and istishna financing instruments tend to be more volatile than expected RoR volatility of musharaka and qardh financing instruments

  18. The Returns to Entrepreneurship

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Van Praag, Mirjam; Raknerud, Arvid

    Empirical studies show low pecuniary returns of switching from wage employment to entrepreneurship. We reconsider the pecuniary gains of this switching by employing a two-stage procedure, where the randomness in the timing of inheritance transfers is used as an exclusion restriction to identify...... causal effects. The model is estimated on data covering the whole Norwegian population of individuals matched to the entire population of firms established in the period 2002-2011. The results indicate that the average returns to entrepreneurship are significantly negative for individuals entering...... entrepreneurship through self-employment and modest, but significantly positive, for incorporated startups....

  19. The Individual Economic Returns to Volunteering in Work Life

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Qvist, Hans-Peter; Munk, Martin David

    2018-01-01

    This article examines the individual economic returns to volunteering during different stages of working life. The article uses a unique panel dataset created by combining rich survey data from Denmark with information on wages from administrative registers covering the period from 2004 to 2012....... Applying a two-way fixed effects regression model that controls for both period-specific and individual-specific effects, the article finds that for labour market entrants and for people in the early stages of their working life, an additional year of volunteer work experience yields a significant positive...... return. However, the economic returns to volunteer work experience decrease as a function of professional labour market experience. For people with more than six years of professional labour market experience, the economic returns to volunteer work experience are insignificant. On these grounds...

  20. The conditioned reprocessing waste returns. An overview of the question

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Donato, A.

    1987-01-01

    Although the spent nuclear fuel reprocessing is at present under careful reconsideration and analysis in several countries, the economics, the environmental and health protection aspects being taken into consideration by many experts, it is nevertheless currently carried out in Great Britain and in France as a commercial service offered to the domestic utilities an to foreign customers, according to the contracts and the agreements signed in the past. Such contracts have been signed with COGEMA and/or BNFL by seven countries: Germany, Sweden, Japan, Belgium, Switzerland, Italy, Holland. As a consequence of this, a big number of high level radioactive glass containers and of cemented and bituminized waste will be returned in order to be stored and disposed off in these European countries and in Japan. The disposal of the conditioned wastes will only be possible if their characteristics comply with the acceptance criteria established or to be established in each customer country. A brief review of the situation will be presented in this paper, particular attention being given to the problems possibly arising from the acceptance point of view of the different reprocessing waste categories

  1. Umov-Mandelshtam radiation conditions in elastic periodic waveguides

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nazarov, S. A., E-mail: srgnazarov@yahoo.co.uk [St. Petersburg State University, Institute of Problems of Mechanical Engineering of the Russian Academy of Sciences, St. Petersburg (Russian Federation)

    2014-07-31

    We study settings of the problem of elasticity theory on wave propagation in an elastic periodic waveguide with radiation conditions at infinity. We present a mathematical theory for energy radiation conditions based on Mandelshtam's energy principle and the Umov-Poynting vector, as well as using the technique of weighted spaces with detached asymptotics and the energy transfer symplectic form. We establish that in a threshold situation, that is, when standing and polynomial elastic Floquet waves appear, the well-known limiting absorption principle, in contrast to the energy principle that is being applied, cannot identify the direction of the wave's motion. Bibliography: 37 titles. (paper)

  2. The effects of financial risks on the relationship between earnings and stock returns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehri Akhavi Babi

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This study was conducted to investigate the effects of financial risks on the relationship between earnings per share and stock returns. The statistical population of the study consisted of the companies accepted by Tehran Stock Exchange. According to the conditions for sampling, 65 companies were selected during a period of six years from 2008 to 2013 (i.e., 390 fiscal years, and four hypotheses were set forth to achieve the purposes of the study. The first hypothesis tried to assess the relationship between earnings per share and stock returns. The second, third, and fourth hypotheses investigated the significance of the effects of three financial risks, namely liquidity, credit, and solvency risks on the relationship between earnings per share and stock returns. The hypotheses of the study were tested using linear and multiple regressions. The findings of the study indicated that there was a positive and significant relationship between earnings per share and stock returns. In addition, the results proved that the credit and solvency risks had negative and significant effects on the relationship between earnings per share and stock returns, but the effect of liquidity risk on this relationship was not significant.

  3. A Perishable Inventory Model with Return

    Science.gov (United States)

    Setiawan, S. W.; Lesmono, D.; Limansyah, T.

    2018-04-01

    In this paper, we develop a mathematical model for a perishable inventory with return by assuming deterministic demand and inventory dependent demand. By inventory dependent demand, it means that demand at certain time depends on the available inventory at that time with certain rate. In dealing with perishable items, we should consider deteriorating rate factor that corresponds to the decreasing quality of goods. There are also costs involved in this model such as purchasing, ordering, holding, shortage (backordering) and returning costs. These costs compose the total costs in the model that we want to minimize. In the model we seek for the optimal return time and order quantity. We assume that after some period of time, called return time, perishable items can be returned to the supplier at some returning costs. The supplier will then replace them in the next delivery. Some numerical experiments are given to illustrate our model and sensitivity analysis is performed as well. We found that as the deteriorating rate increases, returning time becomes shorter, the optimal order quantity and total cost increases. When considering the inventory-dependent demand factor, we found that as this factor increases, assuming a certain deteriorating rate, returning time becomes shorter, optimal order quantity becomes larger and the total cost increases.

  4. Regime switches in the risk-return trade-off

    OpenAIRE

    Marcellino, Massimiliano; Ghysels, Eric; Guerin, Pierre

    2014-01-01

    This paper deals with the estimation of the risk-return trade-off. We use a MIDAS model for the conditional variance and allow for possible switches in the risk-return relation through a Markov-switching specification. We find strong evidence for regime changes in the risk-return relation. This finding is robust to a large range of specifications. In the first regime characterized by low ex-post returns and high volatility, the risk-return relation is reversed, whereas the intuitive positive ...

  5. Oil Volatility Risk and Expected Stock Returns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christoffersen, Peter; Pan, Xuhui (Nick)

    After the financialization of commodity futures markets in 2004-05 oil volatility has become a strong predictor of returns and volatility of the overall stock market. Furthermore, stocks' exposure to oil volatility risk now drives the cross-section of expected returns. The difference in average...... return between the quintile of stocks with low exposure and high exposure to oil volatility is significant at 0.66% per month, and oil volatility risk carries a significant risk premium of -0.60% per month. In the post-financialization period, oil volatility risk is strongly related with various measures...

  6. Forecasting the variance and return of Mexican financial series with symmetric GARCH models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fátima Irina VILLALBA PADILLA

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The present research shows the application of the generalized autoregresive conditional heteroskedasticity models (GARCH in order to forecast the variance and return of the IPC, the EMBI, the weighted-average government funding rate, the fix exchange rate and the Mexican oil reference, as important tools for investment decisions. Forecasts in-sample and out-of-sample are performed. The covered period involves from 2005 to 2011.

  7. The role of communication and support in return to work following cancer-related absence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yarker, J; Munir, F; Bains, M; Kalawsky, K; Haslam, C

    2010-10-01

    Many cancer survivors experience difficulties returning to work. However, there have been relatively few attempts to understand why problems with employer support and work adjustment occur. This paper aims to extend previous work in two ways: first, through exploring the way in which communication and support at work effect cancer survivors on their return to work and during the post-return period; and second, by drawing on a research sample working in the United Kingdom. In all, 26 cancer survivors took part in a semi-structured telephone interview. Interviews were transcribed and analysed using thematic analysis. The analysis revealed three key findings. First, the central role of communication and support from (and between) occupational health, line managers, and colleagues was highlighted. Second, two discrete processes or periods of return to work were identified: the experience of return to work during the initial period of return and the experiences of post-return to work. Third, during the post-return period, the importance of the delayed impact of cancer on the ability to work, the lack of follow-up and monitoring, and the wear-off effect of empathy and support were highlighted as contributing to return-to-work difficulties. This qualitative study highlights the importance of communication within the workplace with regard to the return-to-work process and the need to provide better support and guidance to cancer survivors, line managers and colleagues. Research is required in delineating how employers without occupational health or human resources support manage the return-to-work process. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  8. A system for generating long streamflow records for study of floods of long return period: Phase 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Franz, D.D.; Kraeger, B.A.; Linsley, R.K.

    1989-02-01

    Knowledge of the return periods of large floods is required to make risk analyses for nuclear power plants subject to flooding from rivers. The system reported here combined the stochastic simulation of hourly rainfall data and daily pan evaporation data with the deterministic simulation of streamflow by using the synthetic rainfall and evaporation data as input to a calibrated rainfall runoff model. The sequence of annual maximum flood peaks from a synthetic record of 10,000 years or more was then analyzed to obtain estimates of flood frequency. The reasonableness of the flood frequency results must be evaluated on the degree of mimicry of the key characteristics of the observed rainfall data and the ability of the rainfall-runoff model to mimic the observed flood frequency during the calibration period. On this basis, the flood frequency results appeared to be a reasonable extrapolation of the data used in defining the model parameters. There is a need to develop regional parameters for the stochastic models and to conduct research on the relationship between the stochastic structure of rainfall and stochastic structure of flood frequency. The methodology is applicable, assuming a highly skilled analyst, to watersheds similar to those already tested

  9. Return period curves for extreme 5-min rainfall amounts at the Barcelona urban network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lana, X.; Casas-Castillo, M. C.; Serra, C.; Rodríguez-Solà, R.; Redaño, A.; Burgueño, A.; Martínez, M. D.

    2018-03-01

    Heavy rainfall episodes are relatively common in the conurbation of Barcelona and neighbouring cities (NE Spain), usually due to storms generated by convective phenomena in summer and eastern and south-eastern advections in autumn. Prevention of local flood episodes and right design of urban drainage have to take into account the rainfall intensity spread instead of a simple evaluation of daily rainfall amounts. The database comes from 5-min rain amounts recorded by tipping buckets in the Barcelona urban network along the years 1994-2009. From these data, extreme 5-min rain amounts are selected applying the peaks-over-threshold method for thresholds derived from both 95% percentile and the mean excess plot. The return period curves are derived from their statistical distribution for every gauge, describing with detail expected extreme 5-min rain amounts across the urban network. These curves are compared with those derived from annual extreme time series. In this way, areas in Barcelona submitted to different levels of flood risk from the point of view of rainfall intensity are detected. Additionally, global time trends on extreme 5-min rain amounts are quantified for the whole network and found as not statistically significant.

  10. Effects of postretrieval-extinction learning on return of contextually controlled cued fear.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meir Drexler, Shira; Merz, Christian J; Hamacher-Dang, Tanja C; Marquardt, Veronica; Fritsch, Nathalie; Otto, Tobias; Wolf, Oliver T

    2014-08-01

    Reactivation of an already consolidated memory makes it labile for a period of several hrs, which are required for its reconsolidation. Evidence suggests that the return of conditioned fear through spontaneous recovery, reinstatement, or renewal can be prevented by blockading this reconsolidation process using pharmacological or behavioral interventions. Postretrieval-extinction learning has been shown to prevent the return of cued fear in humans using fear-irrelevant stimuli, as well as cued and contextual fear in rodents. The effects of postretrieval extinction on human contextually controlled cued fear to fear-relevant stimuli remain unknown, and are the focus of the present study. The experimental design was based on 3 consecutive days: acquisition, reactivation and extinction, and re-extinction. For the fear conditioning, 2 zoo frames served as different contexts, 5 fear-relevant stimuli (aversive animal pictures) served as conditioned stimuli (CS), electric shocks served as unconditioned stimuli (UCS). Expectancy ratings and skin-conductance response (SCR) were used as measures of fear responses; spontaneous recovery and renewal were used as indicators of the return of fear. The expectancy ratings and SCR results indicated spontaneous recovery on the third day, regardless of retrieval prior to extinction. No robust renewal effect was seen. It is suggested that the use of fear-relevant stimuli, the context salience, or reactivation context may explain the lack of reconsolidation effect. Our study indicates that the beneficial effects of postretrieval-extinction learning are sensitive to subtle methodological changes.

  11. Abnormal stock market returns to announcements of M&A banking deals in Greece 1996-2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anastasios KARAMANOS

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This study has undertaken a comprehensive empirical analysis of the wealth effects of bank M&As in Greece over the period 1996-2013. The purpose is to measure the performance of merger participants over the acquisition period as a deviation of how shareholders’ actual returns differ from expected returns conditional on the particular process of M&A. The authors develop a conceptual framework that integrates theoretical perspectives from economics, finance, organization theory, strategic management and human resource management to offer a broader process-oriented integrative model of the empirical evidence and theories suggested to explain acquisitions. The empirical analysis reports insignificant abnormal gains for acquiring banks, significant positive abnormal returns at 7,44% for acquired banks, and 2,91% positive abnormal returns for the combined entity, in the event window [-10;+1]. The findings indicate that, on average, the Greek bank mergers neither create nor destroy shareholder wealth. This result is consistent with the findings of other Greek event studies and the bulk of US and European event studies on M&A wealth effects. On average, acquired firm shareholders gain at the expense of the acquiring firm and market value of the combined entity appears to have little improvement around the announcement of the transaction. The conceptual framework explicitly describes that wealth effects of bank M&As in Greece over the period 1996-2013 may be a result of macroeconomic theory and perfectly competitive market, lack of strategic relatedness and synergy realization, managerial hubris, or unethical behavior of managers derived from expense preference approach of agency theory.

  12. Psychosocial job conditions, fear avoidance beliefs and expected return to work following acute coronary syndrome: a cross-sectional study of fear-avoidance as a potential mediator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Söderberg, Mia; Rosengren, Annika; Gustavsson, Sara; Schiöler, Linus; Härenstam, Annika; Torén, Kjell

    2015-12-21

    Despite improvements in treatment, acute coronary syndrome remains a substantial cause for prolonged sick absences and premature retirement. Knowledge regarding what benefits return to work is limited, especially the effect of psychological processes and psychosocial work factors. The purposes of this cross-sectional study were two-fold: to examine associations between adverse psychosocial job conditions and fear-avoidance beliefs towards work, and to determine whether such beliefs mediated the relationship between work conditions and expected return to work in acute coronary syndrome survivors. Study inclusion criteria: acute myocardial infarction or unstable angina diagnosis, below 65 years of age, being a resident in the West county of Sweden and currently working. In all, 509 individuals (21.8 % women) accepted study participation and for whom all data of study interest were available for analysis. Psychosocial work variables; job demand-control and effort-reward imbalance, were assessed with standard questionnaire batteries. Linear regression models were used to investigate relationships between psychosocial factors and fear-avoidance, and to evaluate mediator effects for fear-avoidance. Both total sample and gender stratified analyses were calculated. Fear-avoidance beliefs about work were associated to psychosocial job environments characterized by high strain (β 1.4; CI 1.2-1.6), active and passive work and high effort-reward imbalance (β 0.6; CI 0.5-0.7). Further, such beliefs also mediated the relationship between adverse work conditions and expected time for return to work. However, these results were only observed in total sample analyses or among or male participants. For women only high strain was linked to fear-avoidance, and these relationships became non-significant when entering chosen confounders. This cross-sectional study showed that acute coronary syndrome survivors, who laboured under adverse psychosocial work conditions, held fear

  13. Weibo sentiments and stock return: A time-frequency view.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Yingying; Liu, Zhixin; Zhao, Jichang; Su, Chiwei

    2017-01-01

    This study provides new insights into the relationships between social media sentiments and the stock market in China. Based on machine learning, we classify microblogs posted on Sina Weibo, a Twitter's variant in China into five detailed sentiments of anger, disgust, fear, joy, and sadness. Using wavelet analysis, we find close positive linkages between sentiments and the stock return, which have both frequency and time-varying features. Five detailed sentiments are positively related to the stock return for certain periods, particularly since October 2014 at medium to high frequencies of less than ten trading days, when the stock return is undergoing significant fluctuations. Sadness appears to have a closer relationship with the stock return than the other four sentiments. As to the lead-lag relationships, the stock return causes Weibo sentiments rather than reverse for most of the periods with significant linkages. Compared with polarity sentiments (negative vs. positive), detailed sentiments provide more information regarding relationships between Weibo sentiments and the stock market. The stock market exerts positive effects on bullishness and agreement of microblogs. Meanwhile, agreement leads the stock return in-phase at the frequency of approximately 40 trading days, indicating that less disagreement improves certainty about the stock market.

  14. Weibo sentiments and stock return: A time-frequency view.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yingying Xu

    Full Text Available This study provides new insights into the relationships between social media sentiments and the stock market in China. Based on machine learning, we classify microblogs posted on Sina Weibo, a Twitter's variant in China into five detailed sentiments of anger, disgust, fear, joy, and sadness. Using wavelet analysis, we find close positive linkages between sentiments and the stock return, which have both frequency and time-varying features. Five detailed sentiments are positively related to the stock return for certain periods, particularly since October 2014 at medium to high frequencies of less than ten trading days, when the stock return is undergoing significant fluctuations. Sadness appears to have a closer relationship with the stock return than the other four sentiments. As to the lead-lag relationships, the stock return causes Weibo sentiments rather than reverse for most of the periods with significant linkages. Compared with polarity sentiments (negative vs. positive, detailed sentiments provide more information regarding relationships between Weibo sentiments and the stock market. The stock market exerts positive effects on bullishness and agreement of microblogs. Meanwhile, agreement leads the stock return in-phase at the frequency of approximately 40 trading days, indicating that less disagreement improves certainty about the stock market.

  15. Weibo sentiments and stock return: A time-frequency view

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Zhixin; Zhao, Jichang; Su, Chiwei

    2017-01-01

    This study provides new insights into the relationships between social media sentiments and the stock market in China. Based on machine learning, we classify microblogs posted on Sina Weibo, a Twitter’s variant in China into five detailed sentiments of anger, disgust, fear, joy, and sadness. Using wavelet analysis, we find close positive linkages between sentiments and the stock return, which have both frequency and time-varying features. Five detailed sentiments are positively related to the stock return for certain periods, particularly since October 2014 at medium to high frequencies of less than ten trading days, when the stock return is undergoing significant fluctuations. Sadness appears to have a closer relationship with the stock return than the other four sentiments. As to the lead-lag relationships, the stock return causes Weibo sentiments rather than reverse for most of the periods with significant linkages. Compared with polarity sentiments (negative vs. positive), detailed sentiments provide more information regarding relationships between Weibo sentiments and the stock market. The stock market exerts positive effects on bullishness and agreement of microblogs. Meanwhile, agreement leads the stock return in-phase at the frequency of approximately 40 trading days, indicating that less disagreement improves certainty about the stock market. PMID:28672026

  16. Perspectives of refugees in Dadaab on returning to Somalia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Caroline Abu Sa’Da

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available MSF recently asked Somali refugees in Dadaab’s Dagahaley camp about their living conditions and their thoughts about returning to Somalia in the near future. The responses suggest that bad living conditions in the camp are not conducive to wanting to return, despite a widespread belief to the contrary.

  17. The Equity Share in New Issues and Aggregate Stock Returns

    OpenAIRE

    Malcolm Baker; Jeffrey Wurgler

    1999-01-01

    The share of equity issues in total new equity and debt issues is a strong predictor of U.S. stock market returns between 1928 and 1997. In particular, firms issue relatively more equity than debt just before periods of low market returns. The equity share in new issues has stable predictive power in both halves of the sample period, and after controlling for other known predictors. We do not find support for efficient market ex

  18. Introduction and application of non-stationary standardized precipitation index considering probability distribution function and return period

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Junehyeong; Sung, Jang Hyun; Lim, Yoon-Jin; Kang, Hyun-Suk

    2018-05-01

    The widely used meteorological drought index, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), basically assumes stationarity, but recent changes in the climate have led to a need to review this hypothesis. In this study, a new non-stationary SPI that considers not only the modified probability distribution parameter but also the return period under the non-stationary process was proposed. The results were evaluated for two severe drought cases during the last 10 years in South Korea. As a result, SPIs considered that the non-stationary hypothesis underestimated the drought severity than the stationary SPI despite that these past two droughts were recognized as significantly severe droughts. It may be caused by that the variances of summer and autumn precipitation become larger over time then it can make the probability distribution wider than before. This implies that drought expressions by statistical index such as SPI can be distorted by stationary assumption and cautious approach is needed when deciding drought level considering climate changes.

  19. Barriers to return to work after burn injuries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esselman, Peter C; Askay, Shelley Wiechman; Carrougher, Gretchen J; Lezotte, Dennis C; Holavanahalli, Radha K; Magyar-Russell, Gina; Fauerbach, James A; Engrav, Loren H

    2007-12-01

    To identify barriers to return to work after burn injury as identified by the patient. A cohort study with telephone interview up to 1 year. Hospital-based burn centers at 3 national sites. Hospitalized patients (N=154) meeting the American Burn Association criteria for major burn injury, employed at least 20 hours a week at the time of injury, and with access to a telephone after discharge. Patients were contacted via telephone every 2 weeks up to 4 months, then monthly up to 1 year after discharge. A return to work survey was used to identify barriers that prevented patients from returning to work. A graphic rating scale determined the impact of each barrier. By 1 year, 79.7% of patients returned to work. Physical and wound issues were barriers early after discharge. Although physical abilities continued to be a significant barrier up to 1 year, working conditions (temperature, humidity, safety) and psychosocial factors (nightmares, flashbacks, appearance concerns) became important issues in those with long-term disability. The majority of patients return to work after a burn injury. Although physical and work conditions are important barriers, psychosocial issues need to be evaluated and treated to optimize return to work.

  20. Effects of storage conditions and storage period on nutritional and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In this work, the effects of storage conditions and storage period on the nutritional and other qualities of stored yam tubers were investigated. ... environment, signs of deterioration of the tuber such as sprouting, weight loss and rotting and some ...

  1. “Dis-able bodied” or “dis-able minded”: stakeholders’ return-to-work experiences compared between physical and mental health conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vossen, E.E.M.; Gestel, N.M. van; Heijden, B.I.J.M. van der; Rouwette, E.A.J.A.

    2017-01-01

    PURPOSE: This study aimed to explore if and why the return-to-work (RTW) experiences of various workplace stakeholders in the Netherlands and Denmark differ between physical and mental health conditions, and to understand the consequences of potentially different experiences for the RTW process in

  2. The returns and risks of investment portfolio in a financial market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jiang-Cheng; Mei, Dong-Cheng

    2014-07-01

    The returns and risks of investment portfolio in a financial system was investigated by constructing a theoretical model based on the Heston model. After the theoretical model and analysis of portfolio were calculated and analyzed, we find the following: (i) The statistical properties (i.e., the probability distribution, the variance and loss rate of equity portfolio return) between simulation results of the theoretical model and the real financial data obtained from Dow Jones Industrial Average are in good agreement; (ii) The maximum dispersion of the investment portfolio is associated with the maximum stability of the equity portfolio return and minimal investment risks; (iii) An increase of the investment period and a worst investment period are associated with a decrease of stability of the equity portfolio return and a maximum investment risk, respectively.

  3. Factor Structure in Commodity Futures Return and Volatility

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christoffersen, Peter; Lunde, Asger; Olesen, Kasper Vinther

    Using data on more than 750 million futures trades during 2004-2013, we analyze eight stylized facts of commodity price and volatility dynamics in the post financialization period. We pay particular attention to the factor structure in returns and volatility and to commodity market integration...... with the equity market. We find evidence of a factor structure in daily commodity futures returns. However, the factor structure in daily commodity futures volatility is even stronger than in returns. When computing model-free realized commodity betas with the stock market we find that they were high during 2008......-2010 but have since returned to the pre-crisis level close to zero. The common factor in commodity volatility is nevertheless clearly related to stock market volatility. We conclude that, while commodity markets appear to again be segmented from the equity market when only returns are considered, commodity...

  4. Investigations on Health Conditions of Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant Accident Recovery Workers from Latvia in Late Period after Disaster

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Reste Jeļena

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The paper summarises the main findings on Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant (CNPP accident recovery workers from Latvia and their health disturbances, which have been studied by the authors during the last two decades. Approximately 6000 persons from Latvia participated in CNPP clean-up works in 1986–1991. During their work period in Chernobyl they were exposed to external as well as to internal irradiation, but since their return to Latvia they were living in a relatively uncontaminated area. Regular careful medical examinations and clinical studies of CNPP clean-up workers have been conducted during the 25 years after disaster, gathering knowledge on radiation late effects. The aim of the present review is to summarise the most important information about Latvian CNPP clean-up worker health revealed by thorough follow-up and research conducted in the period of 25 years after the accident. This paper reviews data of the Latvian State Register of Persons Exposed to Radiation due to CNPP Accident and gives insight in main health effects found by the researchers from the Centre of Occupational and Radiological Medicine (Pauls Stradiņš Clinical University Hospital and Rīga Stradiņš University in a number of epidemiological, clinical, biochemical, immunological, and physiological studies. Latvian research data on health condition of CNPP clean-up workers in the late period after disaster indicate that ionising radiation might cause premature ageing and severe polymorbidity in humans.

  5. Does Exposure to Returning SEN Students Harm Peers’ Outcomes?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rangvid, Beatrice Schindler

    Returning SEN (special educational needs) students from segregated settings to regular class rooms may have spill-over effects on their peers. Using a combination of survey data and data from administrative registers from Denmark, I investigate whether becoming exposed to returning SEN students a...... themselves finds that while reading results are unaffected, returners experience large improvements in math achievement of roughly 65% of a standard deviation over a three year period. Intermediate and advanced math skills are more affected than basic skills....

  6. Expert consensus on facilitators and barriers to return-to-work following surgery for non-traumatic upper extremity conditions : A Delphi study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peters, S. E.; Johnston, V.; Ross, M.; Coppieters, M. W.

    2017-01-01

    This Delphi study aimed to reach consensus on important facilitators and barriers for return-to-work following surgery for non-traumatic upper extremity conditions. In Round 1, experts (n = 42) listed 134 factors, which were appraised in Rounds 2 and 3. Consensus (3/485% agreement) was achieved for

  7. Dividend policy as a signaling mechanism under different market conditions: Evidence from the Casablanca Stock Exchange

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Farooq, Omar; Saoud, Siham; Agnaou, Samir

    2012-01-01

    Does the signaling value of dividend policy depend on market conditions? Do investors respond to dividend policy differently in different periods? This study answers these questions by using a sample of firms from the Casablanca Stock Exchange during the period between 2003 and 2007. We find a si...... growth period. One of the reasons for our results may be that investors pay lesser attention to the signaling value of dividends during the periods when they are earning higher returns on their investments.......Does the signaling value of dividend policy depend on market conditions? Do investors respond to dividend policy differently in different periods? This study answers these questions by using a sample of firms from the Casablanca Stock Exchange during the period between 2003 and 2007. We find...... a significantly negative relationship between dividend payout ratio and stock price volatility during the stable growth period. We also show a significantly positive relationship between dividend payout ratio and stock returns during the same period. However, this relationship turns insignificant during the high...

  8. Risk-Return Trade-Off for European Stock Markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aslanidis, Nektarios; Christiansen, Charlotte; Savva, Christos S.

    This paper adopts dynamic factor models with macro-finance predictors to revisit the intertemporal risk-return relation in five large European stock markets. We identify country specific, Euro area, and global factors to determine the conditional moments of returns considering the role of higher...

  9. Probability distribution of extreme share returns in Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zin, Wan Zawiah Wan; Safari, Muhammad Aslam Mohd; Jaaman, Saiful Hafizah; Yie, Wendy Ling Shin

    2014-09-01

    The objective of this study is to investigate the suitable probability distribution to model the extreme share returns in Malaysia. To achieve this, weekly and monthly maximum daily share returns are derived from share prices data obtained from Bursa Malaysia over the period of 2000 to 2012. The study starts with summary statistics of the data which will provide a clue on the likely candidates for the best fitting distribution. Next, the suitability of six extreme value distributions, namely the Gumbel, Generalized Extreme Value (GEV), Generalized Logistic (GLO) and Generalized Pareto (GPA), the Lognormal (GNO) and the Pearson (PE3) distributions are evaluated. The method of L-moments is used in parameter estimation. Based on several goodness of fit tests and L-moment diagram test, the Generalized Pareto distribution and the Pearson distribution are found to be the best fitted distribution to represent the weekly and monthly maximum share returns in Malaysia stock market during the studied period, respectively.

  10. Corrective shoeing in horses: analysis of the adaptation period to the new condition imposed

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raquel M. Albernaz

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Corrective shoeing is a method commonly used to alter the locomotion pattern in animals or as therapy for various disorders of the locomotive system of horses. However, to date, there have been no scientific studies discussing the period during which animals adapt to this type of intervention. The goal of this study was to evaluate the horseshoe adaptation period with the toe or heel elevated by six degrees at 0, 48, and 96 hours after each type of shoeing. For this analysis, the horses were recorded while walking on a treadmill. Stride length and gait qualitative analyzes were performed using Dvideow software. The level of significance adopted was 5%. In the present study, there was no significant difference between the evaluation times; elevating the toe or heel by six degrees do not generates discomfort during locomotion, therefore, horses are able to return to a regular exercise or training routine immediately after shoeing.

  11. Groundwater flow modelling of periods with temperate climate conditions - Forsmark

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Joyce, Steven; Simpson, Trevor; Hartley, Lee; Applegate, David; Hoek, Jaap; Jackson, Peter; Swan, David (Serco Technical Consulting Services (United Kingdom)); Marsic, Niko (Kemakta Konsult AB (Sweden)); Follin, Sven (SF GeoLogic AB (Sweden))

    2010-11-15

    As a part of the license application for a final repository for spent nuclear fuel at Forsmark, the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) has undertaken a series of groundwater flow modelling studies. These represent time periods with different climate conditions and the simulations carried out contribute to the overall evaluation of the repository design and long-term radiological safety. This report concerns the modelling of a repository at the Forsmark site during temperate conditions; i.e. from post-closure and throughout the temperate period up until the receding shoreline leaves the modelling domain at around 12,000 AD. The collation and implementation of onsite hydrogeological and hydrogeochemical data from previous reports are used in the construction of a hydrogeological base case (reference case conceptualisation) and then in an examination of various areas of uncertainty within the current understanding by a series of model variants. The hydrogeological base case models at three different scales, 'repository', 'site' and 'regional', make use of continuous porous medium (CPM), equivalent continuous porous medium (ECPM) and discrete fracture network (DFN) models. The use of hydrogeological models allow for the investigation of the groundwater flow from a deep disposal facility to the biosphere and for the calculation of performance measures that will provide an input to the site performance assessment. The focus of the study described in this report has been to perform numerical simulations of the hydrogeological system from post-closure and throughout the temperate period. Besides providing quantitative results for the immediate temperate period following post-closure, these results are also intended to give a qualitative indication of the evolution of the groundwater system during future temperate periods within an ongoing cycle of glacial/inter-glacial events

  12. Clay catalyzed RNA synthesis under Martian conditions: Application for Mars return samples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joshi, Prakash C; Dubey, Krishna; Aldersley, Michael F; Sausville, Meaghen

    2015-06-26

    Catalysis by montmorillonites clay minerals is regarded as a feasible mechanism for the abiotic production and polymerization of key biomolecules on early Earth. We have investigated a montmorillonite-catalyzed reaction of the 5'-phosphorimidazolide of nucleosides as a model to probe prebiotic synthesis of RNA-type oligomers. Here we show that this model is specific for the generation of RNA oligomers despite deoxy-mononucleotides adsorbing equally well onto the montmorillonite catalytic surfaces. Optimum catalytic activity was observed over a range of pH (6-9) and salinity (1 ± 0.2 M NaCl). When the weathering steps of early Earth that generated catalytic montmorillonite were modified to meet Martian soil conditions, the catalytic activity remained intact without altering the surface layer charge. Additionally, the formation of oligomers up to tetramer was detected using as little as 0.1 mg of Na⁺-montmorillonite, suggesting that the catalytic activity of a Martian clay return sample can be investigated with sub-milligram scale samples. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. ANALISIS FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI RETURN SAHAM KONSTRUKSI BUMN DENGAN REGRESI PANEL DINAMIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Al Muizzuddin Fazaalloh

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to determine the factors that affect stock returns in the Indonesian state-owned construction period January 2013 to December 2015. The variables used were trading volume, market capitalization, inflation, exchange rate and government policy. The data in this research is secondary data obtained from the publication of the Central Bureau of Statistics, Ministry of Commerce and the Indonesia Stock Exchange. This study uses a dynamic panel regression by the method of Generalized Method of Moments (GMM. The results showed that lagged stock returns, trading volume at this time and the exchange rate at the moment significant negative effect on stock returns. While the market capitalization in the current and prior periods and inflation at the moment and the two previous period significant positive effect on stock returns. Besides the government's policy affect to state-owned construction stock returns where policies are made in the era of President Joko Widodo more influence smaller than the policy made during the leadership of President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono.

  14. The conditional returns to origin-country human capital among Turkish and Moroccan immigrants in Belgium.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanas, Agnieszka; van Tubergen, Frank

    2014-07-01

    This study extends the analysis of the economic returns to pre-migration human capital by examining the role of the receiving context, co-ethnic residential concentration, and post-migration investments in human capital. It uses large-scale survey data on Turkish and Moroccan immigrants in Belgium. The analysis demonstrates that regarding employment, Moroccan immigrants, that is, those originating from former French colonies receive larger returns to their origin-country education and work experience in French- vs. Dutch-speaking regions. Other than the positive interaction effect between co-ethnic residential concentration and work experience on employment, there is little evidence that co-ethnic concentration increases the returns to origin-country human capital. Speaking the host-country language facilitates economic returns to origin-country work experience. Conversely, immigrants who acquire host-country credentials and work experience receive lower returns to origin-country education and experience, suggesting that, at least among low-skilled immigrants, pre- and post-migration human capital substitute rather than complement each other. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Cost Efficiency and Returns to Scope in Italian Investment Firms

    OpenAIRE

    Marcello Basili; Fulvio Fontini

    2005-01-01

    This paper estimates cost efficiency and returns to scope of Italian investment firms during the period 1998-2002, following the stochastic frontier function approach. Results indicate a large inefficiency for Italian investment firms (with a high standard deviation across sample) and the absence of significant returns to scope

  16. Particles in a magnetic field and plasma analogies: doubly periodic boundary conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Forrester, P J

    2006-01-01

    The N-particle free fermion state for quantum particles in the plane subject to a perpendicular magnetic field, and with doubly periodic boundary conditions, is written in a product form. The absolute value of this is used to formulate an exactly solvable one-component plasma model and further motivates the formulation of an exactly solvable two-species Coulomb gas. The large N expansion of the free energy of both these models exhibits the same O(1) term. On the basis of a relationship to the Gaussian free field, this term is predicted to be universal for conductive Coulomb systems in doubly periodic boundary conditions

  17. The Returns on Investment Grade Diamonds

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Renneboog, L.D.R.

    2013-01-01

    Abstract: This paper examines the risk-return characteristics of investment grade gems (white diamonds, colored diamonds and other types of gems including sapphires, rubies, and emeralds). The transactions are coming from gem auctions and span the period 1999-2012. Over our time frame, the annual

  18. Insider Trading Activities and Returns of German Blue Chips

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dagmar Linnertová

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to investigate the causality between stock returns and insider open market transactions. The Dumitrescu-Hurlin (2012 heterogeneous approach to panel Granger causality is chosen to examine the relationship. The investigation is conducted on the 30 most traded German blue chips during the period of 2006–2014. The strong causality is revealed in the one-month period. Thus, stock returns may be used to predict future insider trading activity. The strong causality between stock returns and future insider buying and selling transactions is further confirmed with three out of four employed insider trading indices. The fact of the legal insider trade (either buy or sell is more important than its volume. The reverse relationship is weak and valid only for longer time horizon of twelve months. Our results indicate that insider traders do not degrade the market efficiency in the long run.

  19. Joint pricing and inventory replenishment decisions with returns and expediting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zhu, Stuart X.

    2012-01-01

    We study a single-item periodic-review model for the joint pricing and inventory replenishment problem with returns and expediting. Demand in consecutive periods are independent random variables and their distributions are price sensitive. At the end of each period, after the demand is realized, a

  20. Returns on Investment in California County Departments of Public Health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Timothy T

    2016-08-01

    To estimate the average return on investment for the overall activities of county departments of public health in California. I gathered the elements necessary to estimate the average return on investment for county departments of public health in California during the period 2001 to 2008-2009. These came from peer-reviewed journal articles published as part of a larger project to develop a method for determining return on investment for public health by using a health economics framework. I combined these elements by using the standard formula for computing return on investment, and performed a sensitivity analysis. Then I compared the return on investment for county departments of public health with the returns on investment generated for various aspects of medical care. The estimated return on investment from $1 invested in county departments of public health in California ranges from $67.07 to $88.21. The very large estimated return on investment for California county departments of public health relative to the return on investment for selected aspects of medical care suggests that public health is a wise investment.

  1. Efficient Return Algorithms For Associated Plasticity With Multiple Yield Planes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Clausen, Johan Christian; Damkilde, Lars; Andersen, Lars

    2006-01-01

    of such criteria. The return formulae are in closed form and no iteration is required. The method accounts for three types of stress return: Return to a single yield plane, to a discontinuity line at the intersection of two yield planes and to a discontinuity point at the intersection between three or more yield...... planes. The infinitesimal and the consistent elastoplastic constitutive matrix are calculated for each type of stress return, as are the conditions to ascertain which type of return is required. The method is exemplified with the Mohr-Coulomb yield criterion....

  2. A study on relationship between the return of value/growth portfolio and market return: Evidence from Tehran Stock Exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Monireh Mashhadi Ramezanali

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available This study examines the relationship between the returns of two value and growth portfolios and the return of market on 15 selected firms on Tehran Stock Exchange over the period 2008-2011. The study divides the firms into two groups in terms of the ratios of price on earning as well as price on book value into two groups of value and growth portfolios. Using some regression analysis, the study has determined a positive and meaningful relationship between value portfolio and market return when the market is on the upside but this relationship is not meaningful during the bear session. The results indicate that during the bull sessions, value portfolios provide better investment opportunities than growth ones do.

  3. Groundwater flow modelling of periods with periglacial and glacial climate conditions - Laxemar

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vidstrand, Patrik (TerraSolve AB, Floda (Sweden)); Rhen, Ingvar (SWECO Environment AB, Falun (Sweden)); Zugec, Nada (Bergab, Goeteborg (Sweden))

    2010-12-15

    As a part of the license application for a final repository for spent nuclear fuel at Forsmark, the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) has undertaken a series of groundwater flow modelling studies. These represent time periods with different hydraulic conditions and the simulations carried out contribute to the overall evaluation of the repository design and long-term radiological safety. This report is concerned with the modelling of a repository at the Laxemar-Simpevarp site during periglacial and glacial climate conditions as a comparison to corresponding modelling carried out for Forsmark /Vidstrand et al. 2010/. The groundwater flow modelling study reported here comprises a coupled thermal-hydraulic-chemical (T-H-C) analysis of periods with periglacial and glacial climate conditions. The objective of the report is to provide bounding hydrogeological estimates at different stages during glaciation and deglaciation of a glacial cycle at Laxemar. Three cases with different climate conditions are analysed here: (i) Temperate case, (ii) Glacial case without permafrost, and (iii) Glacial case with permafrost. The glacial periods are transient and encompass approximately 13,000 years. The simulation results comprise pressures, Darcy fluxes, and water salinities, as well as advective transport performance measures obtained by particle tracking such as flow path lengths, travel times and flow-related transport resistances. The modelling is accompanied by a sensitivity study that addresses the impact of the following matters: the direction of the ice sheet advance and the bedrock hydraulic and transport properties

  4. Simulated responses of streams and ponds to groundwater withdrawals and wastewater return flows in southeastern Massachusetts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlson, Carl S.; Walter, Donald A.; Barbaro, Jeffrey R.

    2015-12-21

    Water use, such as withdrawals, wastewater return flows, and interbasin transfers, can alter streamflow regimes, water quality, and the integrity of aquatic habitat and affect the availability of water for human and ecosystem needs. To provide the information needed to determine alteration of streamflows and pond water levels in southeastern Massachusetts, existing groundwater models of the Plymouth-Carver region and western (Sagamore flow lens) and eastern (Monomoy flow lens) Cape Cod were used to delineate subbasins and simulate long-term average and average monthly streamflows and pond levels for a series of water-use conditions. Model simulations were used to determine the extent to which streamflows and pond levels were altered by comparing simulated streamflows and pond levels under predevelopment conditions with streamflows and pond levels under pumping only and pumping with wastewater return flow conditions. The pumping and wastewater return flow rates used in this study are the same as those used in previously published U.S. Geological Survey studies in southeastern Massachusetts and represent the period from 2000 to 2005. Streamflow alteration for the nontidal portions of streams in southeastern Massachusetts was evaluated within and at the downstream outlets of 78 groundwater subbasins delineated for this study. Evaluation of streamflow alteration at subbasin outlets is consistent with the approach used by the U.S. Geological Survey for the topographically derived subbasins in the rest of Massachusetts.

  5. Price Earnings Ratio and Stock Return Analysis (Evidence from Liquidity 45 Stocks Listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liem Pei Fun

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Price to Earnings Ratio (PE Ratio has been broadly used by analysts and investors for stock selection. Stocks with low PE ratio are perceived as having cheaper current price hence expected to generate higher return in subsequent period. This paper aims to examine predictability of stock return using PE Ratio based on historical relationship between PE Ratio and subsequent stock return. Particularly, it seeks to find whether stocks with high PE Ratio followed by low stocks return and on the contrary, stocks with low PE Ratio followed by high stocks return. Using stocks which are included as member of Liquidity 45 and observation period 2005-2010 as samples, results show that there is significance difference between low PE and high PE portfolio stock return in short term (holding period of 6 months but there is no significance difference between both portfolio stock return if they are hold for one, two, three, and four years. This research also finds that there is no significant relationship between stock return and (trailing PE Ratio which suggests that (trailing PE Ratio is not useful in estimating both short term and long term stock returns

  6. Groundwater flow modelling of periods with temperate climate conditions - Laxemar

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Joyce, Steven; Simpson, Trevor; Hartley, Lee; Applegate, David; Hoek, Jaap; Jackson, Peter; Roberts, David; Swan, David; Gylling, Bjoern; Marsic, Niko; Rhen, Ingvar

    2010-12-01

    As a part of the license application for a final repository for spent nuclear fuel at Forsmark, the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) has undertaken a series of groundwater flow modelling studies. These represent time periods with different hydraulic conditions and the simulations carried out contribute to the overall evaluation of the repository design and long-term radiological safety. This report concerns the modelling of a repository at the Laxemar-Simpevarp site during temperate climate conditions as a comparison to corresponding modelling carried out for Forsmark /Joyce et al. 2010/. The collation and implementation of onsite hydrogeological and hydrogeochemical data from previous reports are used in the construction of a Hydrogeological base case (reference case conceptualisation) and then an examination of various areas of uncertainty within the current understanding by a series of model variants. The Hydrogeological base case models at three different scales, 'repository', 'site' and 'regional' make use of a discrete fracture network (DFN) and equivalent continuous porous medium (ECPM) models. The use of hydrogeological models allow for the investigation of the groundwater flow from a deep disposal facility to the biosphere and for the calculation of performance measures that will provide an input to the site performance assessment. The focus of the study described in this report has been to perform numerical simulations of the hydrogeological system from post-closure and throughout the temperate period up until the receding shoreline leaves the modelling domain at around 15,000 AD. Besides providing quantitative results for the immediate temperate period following post-closure, these results are also intended to give a qualitative indication of the evolution of the groundwater system during future temperate periods within an ongoing cycle of glacial/inter-glacial events

  7. Groundwater flow modelling of periods with temperate climate conditions - Laxemar

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Joyce, Steven; Simpson, Trevor; Hartley, Lee; Applegate, David; Hoek, Jaap; Jackson, Peter; Roberts, David; Swan, David (Serco Technical Consulting Services (United Kingdom)); Gylling, Bjoern; Marsic, Niko (Kemakta Konsult AB, Stockholm (Sweden)); Rhen, Ingvar (SWECO Environment AB, Falun (Sweden))

    2010-12-15

    As a part of the license application for a final repository for spent nuclear fuel at Forsmark, the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) has undertaken a series of groundwater flow modelling studies. These represent time periods with different hydraulic conditions and the simulations carried out contribute to the overall evaluation of the repository design and long-term radiological safety. This report concerns the modelling of a repository at the Laxemar-Simpevarp site during temperate climate conditions as a comparison to corresponding modelling carried out for Forsmark /Joyce et al. 2010/. The collation and implementation of onsite hydrogeological and hydrogeochemical data from previous reports are used in the construction of a Hydrogeological base case (reference case conceptualisation) and then an examination of various areas of uncertainty within the current understanding by a series of model variants. The Hydrogeological base case models at three different scales, 'repository', 'site' and 'regional' make use of a discrete fracture network (DFN) and equivalent continuous porous medium (ECPM) models. The use of hydrogeological models allow for the investigation of the groundwater flow from a deep disposal facility to the biosphere and for the calculation of performance measures that will provide an input to the site performance assessment. The focus of the study described in this report has been to perform numerical simulations of the hydrogeological system from post-closure and throughout the temperate period up until the receding shoreline leaves the modelling domain at around 15,000 AD. Besides providing quantitative results for the immediate temperate period following post-closure, these results are also intended to give a qualitative indication of the evolution of the groundwater system during future temperate periods within an ongoing cycle of glacial/inter-glacial events

  8. 26 CFR 301.6103(j)(5)-1 - Disclosures of return information reflected on returns to officers and employees of the...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... Security Number; (iii) Annual accounting period; (iv) Principal Business Activity (PBA) code; (v) Taxable...” and Form 1065-B “U.S. Return of Income for Electing Large Partnerships” (Schedule F)— (i) Taxpayer...

  9. Critical period of memory enhancement during taste avoidance conditioning in Lymnaea stagnalis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takahashi, Tomoyo; Takigami, Satoshi; Sunada, Hiroshi; Lukowiak, Ken; Sakakibara, Manabu

    2013-01-01

    The present study investigated the optimal training procedure leading to long-lasting taste avoidance behavior in Lymnaea. A training procedure comprising 5 repeated pairings of a conditional stimulus (CS, sucrose), with an unconditional stimulus (US, a tactile stimulation to the animal's head), over a 4-day period resulted in an enhanced memory formation than 10 CS-US repeated pairings over a 2-day period or 20 CS-US repeated pairings on a single day. Backward conditioning (US-CS) pairings did not result in conditioning. Thus, this taste avoidance conditioning was CS-US pairing specific. Food avoidance behavior was not observed following training, however, if snails were immediately subjected to a cold-block (4°C for 10 min). It was critical that the cold-block be applied within 10 min to block long-term memory (LTM) formation. Further, exposure to the cold-block 180 min after training also blocked both STM and LTM formation. The effects of the cold-block on subsequent learning and memory formation were also examined. We found no long lasting effects of the cold-block on subsequent memory formation. If protein kinase C was activated before the conditioning paradigm, snails could still acquire STM despite exposure to the cold-block.

  10. Critical period of memory enhancement during taste avoidance conditioning in Lymnaea stagnalis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomoyo Takahashi

    Full Text Available The present study investigated the optimal training procedure leading to long-lasting taste avoidance behavior in Lymnaea. A training procedure comprising 5 repeated pairings of a conditional stimulus (CS, sucrose, with an unconditional stimulus (US, a tactile stimulation to the animal's head, over a 4-day period resulted in an enhanced memory formation than 10 CS-US repeated pairings over a 2-day period or 20 CS-US repeated pairings on a single day. Backward conditioning (US-CS pairings did not result in conditioning. Thus, this taste avoidance conditioning was CS-US pairing specific. Food avoidance behavior was not observed following training, however, if snails were immediately subjected to a cold-block (4°C for 10 min. It was critical that the cold-block be applied within 10 min to block long-term memory (LTM formation. Further, exposure to the cold-block 180 min after training also blocked both STM and LTM formation. The effects of the cold-block on subsequent learning and memory formation were also examined. We found no long lasting effects of the cold-block on subsequent memory formation. If protein kinase C was activated before the conditioning paradigm, snails could still acquire STM despite exposure to the cold-block.

  11. Groundwater flow modelling of periods with periglacial and glacial climate conditions - Forsmark

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vidstrand, Patrik; Follin, Sven; Zugec, Nada

    2010-12-01

    As a part of the license application for a final repository for spent nuclear fuel at Forsmark, the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) has undertaken a series of groundwater flow modelling studies. These represent time periods with different hydraulic conditions and the simulations carried out contribute to the overall evaluation of the repository design and long-term radiological safety. The groundwater flow modelling study reported here comprises a coupled thermal-hydraulic-chemical (T-H-C) analysis of periods with periglacial and glacial climate conditions. Hydraulic-mechanical (H-M) issues are also handled but no coupled flow modelling is done. The objective of the report is to provide bounding hydrogeological estimates at different stages during glaciation and deglaciation of a glacial cycle for subsequent use in safety assessment applications within SKB's project SR-Site. Three cases with different climate conditions are analysed here: (i) Temperate case, (ii) Glacial case without permafrost, and (iii) Glacial case with permafrost. The glacial periods are transient and encompass approximately 19,000 years. The simulation results comprise residual fluid pressures, Darcy fluxes, and water salinities, as well as advective transport performance measures obtained by particle tracking such as flow path lengths, travel times and flow-related transport resistances. The modelling is accompanied by a sensitivity study that addresses the impact of the following matters: the direction of the ice sheet advance, the speed of the ice sheet margin, the bedrock hydraulic and transport properties, the temperature at the ice-subsurface interface close to the ice sheet margin, and the initial hydrochemical conditions

  12. Groundwater flow modelling of periods with periglacial and glacial climate conditions - Forsmark

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vidstrand, Patrik (TerraSolve AB, Floda (Sweden)); Follin, Sven (SF GeoLogic AB, Taeby (Sweden)); Zugec, Nada (Bergab, Stockholm (Sweden))

    2010-12-15

    As a part of the license application for a final repository for spent nuclear fuel at Forsmark, the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) has undertaken a series of groundwater flow modelling studies. These represent time periods with different hydraulic conditions and the simulations carried out contribute to the overall evaluation of the repository design and long-term radiological safety. The groundwater flow modelling study reported here comprises a coupled thermal-hydraulic-chemical (T-H-C) analysis of periods with periglacial and glacial climate conditions. Hydraulic-mechanical (H-M) issues are also handled but no coupled flow modelling is done. The objective of the report is to provide bounding hydrogeological estimates at different stages during glaciation and deglaciation of a glacial cycle for subsequent use in safety assessment applications within SKB's project SR-Site. Three cases with different climate conditions are analysed here: (i) Temperate case, (ii) Glacial case without permafrost, and (iii) Glacial case with permafrost. The glacial periods are transient and encompass approximately 19,000 years. The simulation results comprise residual fluid pressures, Darcy fluxes, and water salinities, as well as advective transport performance measures obtained by particle tracking such as flow path lengths, travel times and flow-related transport resistances. The modelling is accompanied by a sensitivity study that addresses the impact of the following matters: the direction of the ice sheet advance, the speed of the ice sheet margin, the bedrock hydraulic and transport properties, the temperature at the ice-subsurface interface close to the ice sheet margin, and the initial hydrochemical conditions.

  13. RASIO KEUANGAN PENGUKUR KINERJA PERUSAHAAN DAN DAMPAKNYA TERHADAP EKSPEKTASI RETURN SAHAM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yarnest Yarnest

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available This research was intended to know and to describe BUMN firm performance listed at Indonesian Stock Exchange.It measured finance ratios and its impact to expectation return good stock partially and simultaneously.This observational object was corporate BUMN listed at Indonesian Stock Exchange, period 2005-2009. Thisresearch used design ex post facto. Exhaustive observational corporate BUMN listed at Indonesian Stock Exchange(BEI were 13 firms. Because of little population, the method used was census method. Analysis techniquesused were analysis multiple regression, quiz f and quiz t, data processing by programs Aviews version 6.0. Theresult of observation showed that liquidity ratio, leverage ratio, activity ratio, profitability ratio and stock ratiocould measure simultaneous firm and performance impacted significant to expectation return stock. Activityratio consisted of average collection period and inventory turnover and stock ratio consisted of price earning ratioand book value per share partially impacted significant to expectation return stock. Meanwhile ratio was liquidity,leverage ratio. Profitability ratio partially did not impact significantly to expectation return stock. Stock ratiomeasured by book value per share constituting impacted as the dominant factor on exspectation return stock.

  14. A NEW EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION OF THE PLATINUM SPOT RETURNS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simone Kruse

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available The global platinum market has been in downturn and unstable for five consecutive years, and thus market participants are demanding effective quantitative risk management tools. Since platinum is so widely used and serves as an important investment vehicle, the importance of risk management of platinum spot returns cannot be understated. In this paper, we take advantage of a very popular econometric model, the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH model, for platinum returns. We received two important findings by using the conventional GARCH models in explain daily platinum spot returns. First, it is crucial to introduce heavy-tailed distribution to explain conditional heavy tails; and second, the NRIG distribution performs better than the most widely-used heavy-tailed distribution, the Student’s t distribution.

  15. Returns on Investment in California County Departments of Public Health

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-01-01

    Objectives. To estimate the average return on investment for the overall activities of county departments of public health in California. Methods. I gathered the elements necessary to estimate the average return on investment for county departments of public health in California during the period 2001 to 2008–2009. These came from peer-reviewed journal articles published as part of a larger project to develop a method for determining return on investment for public health by using a health economics framework. I combined these elements by using the standard formula for computing return on investment, and performed a sensitivity analysis. Then I compared the return on investment for county departments of public health with the returns on investment generated for various aspects of medical care. Results. The estimated return on investment from $1 invested in county departments of public health in California ranges from $67.07 to $88.21. Conclusions. The very large estimated return on investment for California county departments of public health relative to the return on investment for selected aspects of medical care suggests that public health is a wise investment. PMID:27310339

  16. FINANCIAL RETURN ON ASSETS. THE IMPACT OF THE FINANCIAL RETURN ON ASSETS OVER THE COMPANY’S DEVELOPMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Constantin Căruntu

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available The financial rate of return is a significant indicator for assessing the economic and financial performance of an enterprise for the internal diagnosis, as well as for the analysis required by the external partners. The financial return is a basic indicator which characterizes the business performances that is found directly under the trade policy (trade cost, efficiency of capital employed (economic profitability but also under the financial policy of the company. If the economic rate of return expresses a remuneration of the employed capital only in relation to operating activities, the financial rate of return quantifies a remuneration of the private capital trough all three types of activity: operational, financial and extraordinary. Starting from the consideration that the financial rate of return expresses the efficiency of equity or permanent capital use of the company we can state that it is of particular importance to the shareholders of the company, which considers according to it’s level whether their investments are justified and they will continue to support the business development through raising of fresh capital or abandonment for a limited period to one part of the dividends due. Managers, in turn, will be keen on maintaining an appropriate level of this rate, in order to retain their positions and to achieve the performance criteria of the company.

  17. Investigating different factors influencing on return of private banks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pegah Motamedi

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Return of Investment has always been an interesting area of research among academics as well as investors. Although capital asset pricing model (CAPM is capable of estimating risk of investment, many people argue that CAPM is not able to predict long-term return, properly. This paper presents an empirical investigation to find the effects of different financial figures including systematic risk (Beta, size of firm, ratio of book value to market share, volume of trade and the ratio of price/earnings (P/E on return of private banks in Iran. The study gathers the necessary information over the period 2005-2011 from private banks in Iran. The study uses multiple regression technique to find the effects of mentioned variables on return of private banks. The results indicate that there are some meaningful and positive relationship between return of banks and systematic risk (Beta, size, volume of trade and P/E. The study also finds some meaningful and reverse relationship between bank return and book value on market value.

  18. Inactive nurses in Taiwan: human capital, intention to return to hospital nursing, and incentives for returning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Hsing-Yi; Tang, Fu-In; Chen, I-Ju; Yin, Teresa J C; Chen, Chu-Chieh; Yu, Shu

    2016-04-01

    To investigate inactive nurses' human capital, intention to return to hospital nursing and incentives for returning. Few studies have discussed the loss of human capital with regard to inactive nurses and how to attract them to return to clinical work. Systematic random sampling was used, with 328 subjects completing the mailed questionnaires, resulting in a response rate of 25.4%. Inactive nurses not only had moderate to high human capital (average years of nursing experience was 10.29, with moderate to high levels of nursing professional commitment and nursing competence) and were young. Forty-three percent of subjects reported intending to return to hospital nursing. Sufficient nurse staffing, greater safety in the working environment, and re-entry preparation programmes were incentives for returning. Recruiting inactive nurses back to hospital work is vital and feasible as inactive nurses had a moderate to high degree of human capital. The most feasible way is offering reasonable working conditions, in particular, providing sufficient staffing, a safe working environment and re-entry preparation programmes. The findings confirm the human capital of inactive nurses and provide concrete directions for nursing managers to follow when recruiting inactive nurses to hospital nursing. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  19. Earnings announcements and the variability of stock returns

    OpenAIRE

    Eilifsen, Aasmund; Knivsflå, Kjell Henry; Sættem, Frode

    1999-01-01

    This paper is concerned with the dissemination process of firm-specific annual earnings information in the Norwegian capital market. We find a significant reduction in stock price volatility in the post-announcement period relative to the pre-announcement period for companies traded on the Oslo Stock Exchange in the period 1990-1995. Potential explanations for this phenomenon are tested by relating the observed return volatility to changes in the volatility of the underlying business, the spe...

  20. Return Migration to Mexico: Does Health Matter?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arenas, Erika; Goldman, Noreen; Pebley, Anne R; Teruel, Graciela

    2015-12-01

    We use data from three rounds of the Mexican Family Life Survey to examine whether migrants in the United States returning to Mexico in the period 2005-2012 have worse health than those remaining in the United States. Despite extensive interest by demographers in health-related selection, this has been a neglected area of study in the literature on U.S.-Mexico migration, and the few results to date have been contradictory and inconclusive. Using five self-reported health variables collected while migrants resided in the United States and subsequent migration history, we find direct evidence of higher probabilities of return migration for Mexican migrants in poor health as well as lower probabilities of return for migrants with improving health. These findings are robust to the inclusion of potential confounders reflecting the migrants' demographic characteristics, economic situation, family ties, and origin and destination characteristics. We anticipate that in the coming decade, health may become an even more salient issue in migrants' decisions about returning to Mexico, given the recent expansion in access to health insurance in Mexico.

  1. Estimating the risk-return tradeoff in MENA Stock Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salim Lahmiri

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available This study employs the generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroskedastic in the mean (GARCH-M methodology to investigate the return generating process of Jordan, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA, Kuwait, and Morocco stock market indices. The tradeoff between returns and the conditional variance is found to be positive in all markets. In other words, the empirical findings show that investors are rewarded for their exposure to more risk in these financial markets. This result is consistent with both financial theory and empirical finance.

  2. PERSISTENCE IN PERFORMANCE FOR MUTUAL FUNDS IN PERIODS OF CRISIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Theodoros KARGIDIS

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available The study investigates the persistence in performance for a sample of South European funds, domiciled in Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain. Employing the Sharpe ratio, risk adjusted performance is measured in an attempt to judge the influence of the 2008 crisis and the current debt crisis on funds’ inclination to persist in their previous returns record. Examination period extends from January 2004 to December 2010 incorporating stages of relative stability in the stock and bond markets while also capturing the early stages of the eurozone crisis. We categorize funds as winners and losers in consecutive 6-monthly periods, thus being able to judge persistence in the short run, while our results suggest that the identification of winners and losers could enable us to investigate the possibility to gain investment advantages through this finding. Overall results suggest evidence of persistent results, whether positive or negative, both during the 2008 crisis and the current debt crisis, leading us to deduce that factors leading to performance persistence are not affected by market changes, since medium to long term persistence bypasses any temporary market mischief. This finding could be of use for fund managers aiming at establishing viable investment strategies, at their epicenter being the exploitation of such clues, suggesting persistence in returns. A fund of funds manager employing funds both in equities and fixed income could potentially choose to invest exclusively or more heavily in the winners of previous periods and avoid accordingly poor performers, thus achieving higher returns on average. For this purpose simple investment strategies are employed where we test the outcome of an investment strategy that would invest on fixed income securities by choosing those funds that were winners in the distribution of returns in the previous 6-monthly period, while disinvesting from poor performers and funds switching sides in performance

  3. An Empirical Study of the Effect of Investor Sentiment on Returns of Different Industries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chuangxia Huang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Studies on investor sentiment are mostly focused on the stock market, but little attention has been paid to the effect of investor sentiment on the return of a specific industry. This paper constructs a proxy variable to examine the relationship between investor sentiment and the return of a specific industry, using the Principle Component Analysis, and finds that investor sentiment is positively correlated with the industry return of the current period and negatively correlated with that of one lag period; we classify investor sentiment as optimistic state and pessimistic state and find that optimistic investor sentiment has a positive effect on stock returns of most industries, while pessimistic investor sentiment has no effect on them; this paper further builds a two-state Markov regime switching model and finds that sentiment has different effect on different industries returns on different states of market.

  4. Evaluation and comparison of return of investment for proposed use of solar systems in the Czech and Slovak Republic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Weiss

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the paper is to evaluate return of investment (ROI and cost savings from proposed use of solar systems for residents funded by government grants. The paper deals with proposals for solar energy systems for various use, simple calculations of payback periods of solar systems financed with subsidy and without subsidy. Apart from climatic conditions, chemical composition the of the absorber and structural elements that are made of copper, respectively aluminum and Al-Mg alloy play an important role in assessing the payback period of the investment in solar panels.

  5. Eigenstates of a particle in an array of hexagons with periodic boundary condition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A Nemati

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available In this paper the problem of a particle in an array of hexagons with periodic boundary condition is solved. Using the projection operators, we categorize eigenfunctions corresponding to each of the irreducible representations of the symmetry group . Based on these results, the Dirichlet and Neumann boundary conditions are discussed.

  6. Return and volatility transmission between gold and stock sectors: Application of portfolio management and hedging effectiveness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dilip Kumar

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The paper investigates the first and second orders moment transmission between gold and Indian industrial sectors with an application of portfolio design and hedging effectiveness using generalised VAR-ADCC-BVGARCH model. Our findings indicate unidirectional significant return spillover from gold to stock sectors. The negative values of estimated time varying conditional correlations are mainly observed during periods of market turbulence and crisis indicating the scope of portfolio diversification and hedging during these periods. We also estimate optimal weights, hedge ratios, and hedging effectiveness for the stock-gold portfolios. Our findings suggest that stock-gold portfolio provides better diversification benefits than stock portfolios.

  7. Randomness confidence bands of fractal scaling exponents for financial price returns

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ibarra-Valdez, C.; Alvarez, J.; Alvarez-Ramirez, J.

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • A robust test for randomness of price returns is proposed. • The DFA scaling exponent is contrasted against confidence bands for random sequences. • The size of the band depends of the sequence length. • Crude oil and USA stock markets have been rarely inefficient. - Abstract: The weak-form of the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) establishes that price returns behave as a pure random process and so their outcomes cannot be forecasted. The detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) has been widely used to test the weak-form of the EMH by showing that time series of price returns are serially uncorrelated. In this case, the DFA scaling exponent exhibits deviations from the theoretical value of 0.5. This work considers the test of the EMH for DFA implementation on a sliding window, which is an approach that is intended to monitor the evolution of markets. Under these conditions, the scaling exponent exhibits important variations over the scrutinized period that can offer valuable insights in the behavior of the market provided the estimated scaling value is kept within strict statistical tests to verify the presence or not of serial correlations in the price returns. In this work, the statistical tests are based on comparing the estimated scaling exponent with the values obtained from pure Gaussian sequences with the length of the real time series. In this way, the presence of serial correlations can be guaranteed only in terms of the confidence bands of a pure Gaussian process. The crude oil (WTI) and the USA stock (DJIA) markets are used to illustrate the methodology.

  8. Return to 1990: The cost of mitigating United States carbon emissions in the post-2000 period

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edmonds, J.A.; Kim, S.H.; MacCracken, C.N.; Sands, R.D.; Wise, M.A.

    1997-10-01

    The Second Generation Model (SGM) is employed to examine four hypothetical agreements to reduce emissions in Annex 1 nations (OECD nations plus most of the nations of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union) to levels in the neighborhood of those which existed in 1990, with obligations taking effect in the year 2010. The authors estimate the cost to the US of complying with such agreements under three distinct conditions: no trading of emissions rights, trading of emissions rights only among Annex 1 nations, and a fully global trading regime. The authors find that the marginal cost of returning to 1990 emissions levels in the US in the absence of trading opportunities is approximately $108 per metric ton carbon in 2010. The total cost in that year is approximately 0.2% of GDP. International trade in emissions permits lowers the cost of achieving any mitigation objective by equalizing the marginal cost of carbon mitigation among countries. For the four mitigation scenarios in this study, economic costs to the US remain below 1% of GDP through at least the year 2020.

  9. Estimating the Ex Ante Expected Returns to College

    OpenAIRE

    Andrew J. Hussey; Omari H. Swinton

    2011-01-01

    Rather than estimating the returns to obtaining a college degree, this paper treats the college education decision as an uncertain investment involving varying likelihoods of successful graduation. We predict earnings conditional on both graduating and not graduating from both selective and non-selective institutions, and incorporate estimated individual-specific graduation rates in calculating the ex ante expected returns from college attendance for individuals across the ability distributio...

  10. Estimation of seismic return periods in the Laguna Verde nuclear plant; Estimacion de periodos de retorno sismico en la PNLV

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Flores R, J.H

    1992-01-15

    The study of seismic risk in the area of the Laguna Verde Nucleo electric plant (PNLV) and its surroundings, one carries out estimating the different return periods and the occurrence probability in different intervals of time (5, 75, 100, 125, 150 years starting from the distribution of first type of Gumbel (G1) of extreme values (Burton, 1986), the value that was used to evaluate the useful life of the PNLV was of 50 years, the other periods will be occupy to evaluate 'temporal' nuclear cemeteries, that is to say for diminish the radioactive activity of the fuel assemblies already burned in the reactor pool or in a near place to the place. The seismic data that were used for the analysis were of the seismic catalog that it was elaborated from (1920-1982), around the place whose seismic half magnitude was of 5 grades Richter and a depth 65 km, these earthquakes are classified as shallow earthquakes, which are located in the continental plaque of North-America, these they are induced by the efforts of push of the plaque of Cocos, existing 36% of intermediate and 2 of deep earthquakes. (Author)

  11. Estimation of seismic return periods in the Laguna Verde nuclear plant; Estimacion de periodos de retorno sismico en la PNLV

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Flores R, J H

    1992-01-15

    The study of seismic risk in the area of the Laguna Verde Nucleo electric plant (PNLV) and its surroundings, one carries out estimating the different return periods and the occurrence probability in different intervals of time (5, 75, 100, 125, 150 years starting from the distribution of first type of Gumbel (G1) of extreme values (Burton, 1986), the value that was used to evaluate the useful life of the PNLV was of 50 years, the other periods will be occupy to evaluate 'temporal' nuclear cemeteries, that is to say for diminish the radioactive activity of the fuel assemblies already burned in the reactor pool or in a near place to the place. The seismic data that were used for the analysis were of the seismic catalog that it was elaborated from (1920-1982), around the place whose seismic half magnitude was of 5 grades Richter and a depth 65 km, these earthquakes are classified as shallow earthquakes, which are located in the continental plaque of North-America, these they are induced by the efforts of push of the plaque of Cocos, existing 36% of intermediate and 2 of deep earthquakes. (Author)

  12. Return to sexual activity and modern family planning use in the extended postpartum period: an analysis of findings from seventeen countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borda, Maria R; Winfrey, William; McKaig, Catharine

    2010-12-01

    Unintended pregnancies can lead to poor maternal and child health outcomes. Family planning use during the first year postpartum has the potential to significantly reduce at least some of these unintended pregnancies. This paper examines the relationship of menses return, breastfeeding status, and postpartum duration on return to sexual activity and use of modern family planning among postpartum women. This paper presents results from a secondary data analysis of Demographic and Health Surveys from 17 countries. For postpartum women, the return of menses, breastfeeding status, and postpartum duration are significantly associated with return to sexual activity in at least 10 out of the 17 countries but not consistently associated with family planning use. Only menses return had a significant association with use of modern family planning in the majority of countries. These findings point to the importance of education about pregnancy risk prior to menses return.

  13. The Relationship Between Economic Growth and Stock Returns : Evidence From Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehmet ŞENTÜRK

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Financial development is one of the most important determinants of the economic development. Financial developments in Turkey began in the early 1980s and still have continued. During this period, it has survived a severe interaction between financial development and economic growth. In this study, the causality relationship between stock returns and economic growth in Turkey it was analysed over the period 1998Q2-2014Q2. In this context; firstly, Bootstrapped Toda-Yamamoto and Frequency Domain causality tests were applied in order to understand the causality relationship between the two variables. As a result of the Bootstrapped Toda-Yamamoto causality test results, there is no relation of causality between the variables, but according to Frequency Domain causality test stock returns cause the economic growth in short term and economic growth cause stock returns in medium term.

  14. Market skewness risk and the cross section of stock returns

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chang, B.; Christoffersen, P.; Jacobs, K.

    2013-01-01

    The cross section of stock returns has substantial exposure to risk captured by higher moments of market returns. We estimate these moments from daily Standard & Poor's 500 index option data. The resulting time series of factors are genuinely conditional and forward-looking. Stocks with high

  15. The Impact of Capital Structure on Stock Returns: International Evidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Reza TAHMOORESPOUR

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available This study examines the relationship between capital structure and stock returns of firms in the following eight countries in the Asia Pacific regionfor a period of 22 years from 1990 to 2012. The methodology is Panel Regression. The results indicate that the effect of capital structure depends on the nature of industry as well as market. In Australia, China, and Korea, return of companies in the Basic Material industry have negative relationship with debt to common equity. Long term debt to common equity positively affects the return of firms in Australia and Korea in the Basic Material industry.

  16. Investment Returns and Economic Fundamentals in International Art Markets

    OpenAIRE

    Renneboog, L.D.R.; Spaenjers, C.

    2014-01-01

    Abstract: Works of art are neither easily tradable across borders, nor evaluated according to globally identical standards. We examine geographical segmentation and its effects on price formation and returns in the international art auction market. We find (i) a close connection between the country of sale and the type (e.g., nationality) of artworks sold; (ii) substantial international variation in average returns to art investments over the period 1971-2007; (iii) an impact of both global a...

  17. Effects of periodic boundary conditions on equilibrium properties of computer simulated fluids. I. Theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pratt, L.R.; Haan, S.W.

    1981-01-01

    An exact formal theory for the effects of periodic boundary conditions on the equilibrium properties of computer simulated classical many-body systems is developed. This is done by observing that use of the usual periodic conditions is equivalent to the study of a certain supermolecular liquid, in which a supermolecule is a polyatomic molecule of infinite extent composed of one of the physical particles in the system plus all its periodic images. For this supermolecular system in the grand ensemble, all the cluster expansion techniques used in the study of real molecular liquids are directly applicable. As expected, particle correlations are translationally uniform, but explicitly anisotropic. When the intermolecular potential energy functions are of short enough range, or cut off, so that the minimum image method is used, evaluation of the cluster integrals is dramatically simplified. In this circumstance, a large and important class of cluster expansion contributions can be summed exactly, and expressed in terms of the correlation functions which result when the system size is allowed to increase without bound. This result yields a simple and useful approximation to the corrections to the particle correlations due to the use of periodic boundary conditions with finite systems. Numerical application of these results are reported in the following paper

  18. ANALISIS REAKSI INVESTOR TERHADAP PENGUMUMAN RIGHT ISSUE DI BURSA EFEK JAKARTA (Suatu Pengamatan pada Return, Abnormal Return, Aktivitas Volume Perdagangan dan Bid-Ask Spread Saham

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SRI DEWI YUSUF

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Development of stock market activity, which grows very fast lead to significant changes on the demand of information quality. To make the rational investor decision making, it is needed a relevant information in order to identify any work of the company. Event study is a study which analyze any market reactions toward an event which the information is published as announcement. Right issue announcement can affect market, it is depent on the existence of the content of the information in the right issue announcement above. If the right issue announcement contains some information so the market will react and the market won’t react if no information. The research sample is determined by a purposive sampling method, and there are 17 companies which announce right issue between 2000-2003. Statistical experiment used is T-test experiment (paired two samples for means. The Observation period which is done in 11 day, consist of 5 day before, 1 day in the moment, and 5 day after the announce right issue. Results show that there is a significant difference between return and abnormal return in the period of between at the moment, and after the announce right issue. The result in the before-after announce right issue period shows that there is no significant difference. The result in the variable activity of stock’s trade volume shows that there is signification difference in the before-at the moment and after period, but in the result of before-after period show that there is no significant difference there. And the result of bid-ask spread variable shows that there is no significant different in the before-at the moment and after period of announce right issue, but in the before-after period the result shows that there is no significant different there. And the result of bid-ask spread variable shows that there is no significant different in the before-at the moment and after period of announce right issue, but in the before-after period

  19. Optimal periodic inspection of a deterioration process with sequential condition states

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kallen, M.J.; Noortwijk, J.M. van

    2006-01-01

    The condition of components subject to visual inspections is often evaluated on a discrete scale. If at each inspection a decision is made to do nothing or to perform preventive or corrective maintenance, the proposed decision model allows us to determine the optimal time between periodic inspections, such that the expected average costs per unit of time are minimized. The model which describes the uncertain condition over time is based on a Markov process with sequential phases. The key quantities involved in the model are the probabilities of having to perform either preventive or corrective maintenance before or after an inspection. The costs functions for two scenarios are presented: a scenario in which failure is immediately detected without the need to perform an inspection and a scenario in which failure is only detected by inspection of the object. Analytical results for a special case and algorithmic results for a broad class of Markov processes are derived. The model is illustrated using an application to the periodic inspection of road bridges

  20. Return to work outcomes for workers with mental health conditions: A retrospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prang, Khic-Houy; Bohensky, Megan; Smith, Peter; Collie, Alex

    2016-01-01

    The aims of this study were to describe predictors of sustained return to work (RTW) among a cohort of workers with compensated work-related mental health conditions (MHCs); and to examine predictors of subsequent absences due to the same condition. This study was a retrospective analysis of compensation claims data in Victoria, Australia. We selected workers with an accepted wage replacement claim due to a work-related MHC from 1 January 2002 to 31 December 2009, with two years of follow-up data. We identified 8358 workers meeting our inclusion criteria. The median age of workers was 44 years (Interquartile range (IQR): 36-51) and 56% were female. In a multivariable Cox regression analysis, older age, being from a small organisation, working in some specific industry segments, consulting a psychiatrist or psychologist, using medications, and having a previous claim were all associated with a delayed RTW. Workers experiencing work pressure, assault/workplace violence or other mental stress factors, working in the public administration and safety industry and having a medical incapacity certification between 3-4 days and 5-7 days had a higher rate of multiple RTW attempts. This study identified a number of risk factors associated with a delayed RTW and multiple attempts at RTW. Predictors may help identify high-risk groups and facilitate the RTW process of workers with MHCs. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Global exponential stability and periodicity of reaction-diffusion delayed recurrent neural networks with Dirichlet boundary conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lu Junguo

    2008-01-01

    In this paper, the global exponential stability and periodicity for a class of reaction-diffusion delayed recurrent neural networks with Dirichlet boundary conditions are addressed by constructing suitable Lyapunov functionals and utilizing some inequality techniques. We first prove global exponential converge to 0 of the difference between any two solutions of the original reaction-diffusion delayed recurrent neural networks with Dirichlet boundary conditions, the existence and uniqueness of equilibrium is the direct results of this procedure. This approach is different from the usually used one where the existence, uniqueness of equilibrium and stability are proved in two separate steps. Furthermore, we prove periodicity of the reaction-diffusion delayed recurrent neural networks with Dirichlet boundary conditions. Sufficient conditions ensuring the global exponential stability and the existence of periodic oscillatory solutions for the reaction-diffusion delayed recurrent neural networks with Dirichlet boundary conditions are given. These conditions are easy to check and have important leading significance in the design and application of reaction-diffusion recurrent neural networks with delays. Finally, two numerical examples are given to show the effectiveness of the obtained results

  2. Effects of intraday weather changes on asset returns and volatilities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hyein Shim

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Analyzing the intraday dataset on weather and market information with the use of the extended GJR-GARCH framework, this study explores in depth the weather effects on the asset returns and volatilities of the Korean stock and derivatives markets. Our intraday analyses contribute to the existing literature by going beyond the attempt of prior studies to capture the weather effects using the average daily observations alone. The empirical results document a modest presence of the weather effect on the returns and volatilities, though the significance of its impact is found to vary across different market conditions and indices. We also find that the return and volatility respond asymmetrically to extremely good and bad weather conditions. The intraday analyses show that the weather effect on the returns and volatilities is more statistically significant at the beginning of the working day or the lunch break, indicating the intraday weather effects on the financial market.

  3. Empirical Evidence on Student-t Log-Returns of Diversified World Stock Indices

    OpenAIRE

    Eckhard Platen; Renata Rendek

    2007-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to document some empirical facts related to log-returns of diversified world stock indices when these are denominated in different currencies. Motivated by earlier results, we have obtained the estimated distribution of log-returns for a range of world stock indices over long observation periods. We expand previous studies by applying the maximum likelihood ratio test to the large class of generalized hyperbolic distributions, and investigate the log-returns of a vari...

  4. The Effects of Twitter Sentiment on Stock Price Returns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ranco, Gabriele; Aleksovski, Darko; Caldarelli, Guido; Grčar, Miha; Mozetič, Igor

    2015-01-01

    Social media are increasingly reflecting and influencing behavior of other complex systems. In this paper we investigate the relations between a well-known micro-blogging platform Twitter and financial markets. In particular, we consider, in a period of 15 months, the Twitter volume and sentiment about the 30 stock companies that form the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) index. We find a relatively low Pearson correlation and Granger causality between the corresponding time series over the entire time period. However, we find a significant dependence between the Twitter sentiment and abnormal returns during the peaks of Twitter volume. This is valid not only for the expected Twitter volume peaks (e.g., quarterly announcements), but also for peaks corresponding to less obvious events. We formalize the procedure by adapting the well-known "event study" from economics and finance to the analysis of Twitter data. The procedure allows to automatically identify events as Twitter volume peaks, to compute the prevailing sentiment (positive or negative) expressed in tweets at these peaks, and finally to apply the "event study" methodology to relate them to stock returns. We show that sentiment polarity of Twitter peaks implies the direction of cumulative abnormal returns. The amount of cumulative abnormal returns is relatively low (about 1-2%), but the dependence is statistically significant for several days after the events.

  5. The return trip is felt shorter only postdictively: A psychophysiological study of the return trip effect [corrected].

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ryosuke Ozawa

    Full Text Available The return trip often seems shorter than the outward trip even when the distance and actual time are identical. To date, studies on the return trip effect have failed to confirm its existence in a situation that is ecologically valid in terms of environment and duration. In addition, physiological influences as part of fundamental timing mechanisms in daily activities have not been investigated in the time perception literature. The present study compared round-trip and non-round-trip conditions in an ecological situation. Time estimation in real time and postdictive estimation were used to clarify the situations where the return trip effect occurs. Autonomic nervous system activity was evaluated from the electrocardiogram using the Lorenz plot to demonstrate the relationship between time perception and physiological indices. The results suggest that the return trip effect is caused only postdictively. Electrocardiographic analysis revealed that the two experimental conditions induced different responses in the autonomic nervous system, particularly in sympathetic nervous function, and that parasympathetic function correlated with postdictive timing. To account for the main findings, the discrepancy between the two time estimates is discussed in the light of timing strategies, i.e., prospective and retrospective timing, which reflect different emphasis on attention and memory processes. Also each timing method, i.e., the verbal estimation, production or comparative judgment, has different characteristics such as the quantification of duration in time units or knowledge of the target duration, which may be responsible for the discrepancy. The relationship between postdictive time estimation and the parasympathetic nervous system is also discussed.

  6. Health conditions detected in a comprehensive periodic health evaluation of 558 professional football players

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bakken, Arnhild; Targett, Stephen; Bere, Tone; Adamuz, Maria-Carmen; Tol, Johannes L.; Whiteley, Rod; Wilson, Mathew G.; Witvrouw, Erik; Khan, Karim M.; Bahr, Roald

    2016-01-01

    Despite the widespread use of periodic health evaluation (PHE) to detect and prevent injury and illness in athletes, its effectiveness in detecting health conditions and relevant risk factors is still debated. To assess health conditions detected by a comprehensive PHE in professional male football

  7. Re-examining the risk–return relationship in Europe: Linear or non-linear trade-off?

    OpenAIRE

    Salvador, Enrique; Floros, Christos; Arago, Vicent

    2014-01-01

    This paper analyzes the risk–return trade-off in Europe using recent data from 11 European stock markets. After relaxing the linear assumptions in the risk–return relationship by introducing a new approach that considers the current state of the market, we obtain significant evidence for a positive risk–return trade-off for low volatility states. However, this finding is reduced or even non-significant during periods of high volatility. Maintaining the linear assumption over the risk–return t...

  8. Earnings Quality Measures and Excess Returns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perotti, Pietro; Wagenhofer, Alfred

    2014-06-01

    This paper examines how commonly used earnings quality measures fulfill a key objective of financial reporting, i.e., improving decision usefulness for investors. We propose a stock-price-based measure for assessing the quality of earnings quality measures. We predict that firms with higher earnings quality will be less mispriced than other firms. Mispricing is measured by the difference of the mean absolute excess returns of portfolios formed on high and low values of a measure. We examine persistence, predictability, two measures of smoothness, abnormal accruals, accruals quality, earnings response coefficient and value relevance. For a large sample of US non-financial firms over the period 1988-2007, we show that all measures except for smoothness are negatively associated with absolute excess returns, suggesting that smoothness is generally a favorable attribute of earnings. Accruals measures generate the largest spread in absolute excess returns, followed by smoothness and market-based measures. These results lend support to the widespread use of accruals measures as overall measures of earnings quality in the literature.

  9. Oil Volatility Risk and Expected Stock Returns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christoffersen, Peter; Pan, Xuhui (Nick)

    return between the quintile of stocks with low exposure and high exposure to oil volatility is significant at 0.66% per month, and oil volatility risk carries a significant risk premium of -0.60% per month. In the post-financialization period, oil volatility risk is strongly related with various measures...

  10. Development and analysis of an economizer control strategy algorithm to promote an opportunity for energy savings in air conditioning installations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Neto, Jose H.M.; Azevedo, Walter L. [Centro Federal de Educacao Tecnologica de Minas Gerais (CEFET), Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil). Dept. de Engenharia Mecanica]. E-mail: henrique@daem.des.cefetmg.br

    2000-07-01

    This work presents an algorithm control strategy denominated enthalpy economizer. The objective of this algorithm strategy is to determine the adequate fractions of outside and return air flowrates entering a cooling coil based on the analysis of the outside, return and supply air enthalpies, rather than on the analysis of the dry bulb temperatures. The proposed algorithm predicts the actual opening position of the outside and return air dampers in order to provide the lower mixing air enthalpy. First, the psychometrics properties of the outside and return air are calculated from actual measurements of the dry and wet bulb temperatures. Then, three distinct cases are analyzed: the enthalpy of the outside air is lower than the enthalpy of the supply air (free cooling); the enthalpy of the outside air is higher than the enthalpy of the return air; the enthalpy of the outside air is lower than the enthalpy of the return air and higher than the temperature of the supply air. Different outside air conditions were selected in order to represent typical weather data of Brazilians cities, as well as typical return air conditions. It was found that the enthalpy control strategy could promote an opportunity for energy savings mainly during mild nights and wintertime periods as well as during warm afternoons and summertime periods, depending on the outside air relative humidity. The proposed algorithm works well and can be integrated in some commercial automation software to reduce energy consumption and electricity demand. (author)

  11. Pengaruh Profitabilitas Terhadap Intial Return Dilihat Dari Aspek Cash Basis Dan Accrual Basis (Studi Pada Perusahaan Yang Melakukan Initial Public Offering (Ipo Di Bursa Efek Indonesia Periode Januari 2011 – Agustus 2015

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miranti Dewi Febriani

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The study aims to examine the effect of profitability on Initial Return based on cash basis and accrual basis. The population in this study is companies performing IPO in period of January 2011 – Augustus 2015 as many as 111 companies and are adjusted to several criteria in order to get as many as 70 companies for model 1, 72 companies for model 2, and 53 companies for model 3. It uses simple regression analysis technique assisted by Gretl Software. Interstingly, only ROE affect Initial Return and model 1 has highest R2.

  12. Returning to work after disability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quinn, P Roger

    2002-06-01

    After a workplace injury or disability, there is a period of hardship and adjustment for the injured party as well as all stakeholders in the workers' compensation process. Ultimately, however, return to work is considered. The author reviews this often challenging exercise from the Canadian perspective and stresses the need for timely intervention, honest communication, the coordination of information and resources--and the need for flexibility. A case study on low back pain is included.

  13. Evaluating bull fertility based on non-return method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prka Igor

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to evaluate the results of reproductive cows and heifers, different parameters of fertility are used, such as the service period, insemination index, intercalving time and others, and of the breeding bulls the values obtained through non-return. An ejaculate is taken up for further processing by veterinary centres only provided it meets the prescribed quality parameters. Rating semen parameters includes a macroscopic (volume, colour, consistency, smell and pH and a microscopic evaluation (mobility, density, percentage of live sperm and abnormal and damaged sperm. In addition to sperm quality and the fertility of the female animal, the results of the non-return method are also influenced by a number of exogenous causes (season, age, race, insemination techniques that have no small impact on the end result of insemination - pregnancy. In order to obtain more objective results of the fertility of bulls the following tasks were undertaken, namely: 1. to calculate with the non-return method the fertility of bulls in over 10,000 cows inseminated for the first time during a period of 6 years; and 2. to analyze the impact of semen quality, season, age of cow and bull, and the bull breed on the results of fertility.

  14. EMPIRICAL DISTRIBUTION OF STOCK RETURNS OF SOUTHEAST EUROPEAN EMERGING MARKETS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aleksandar Naumoski

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The assumption that equity returns follow the normal distribution, most commonly made in financial economics theory and applications, is strongly rejected by empirical evidence presented in this paper. As it was found in many other studies, we confirm that stock returns follow a leptokurtic distribution and skewness, which in most of the Southeast European (SEE markets is negative. This paper investigates further whether there is any distribution that may be considered an optimal fit for stock returns in the SEE region. Using daily, weekly and monthly data samples for a period of five years from ten Southeast European emerging countries, we applied the Anderson-Darling test of Goodness-of-fit. We strongly rejected the aforementioned assumption of normality for all considered data samples and found that the daily stock returns are best fitted by the Johnson SU distribution whereas for the weekly and monthly stock returns there was not one predominant, but many distributions that can be considered a best fit.

  15. PERAN PROFITABILITAS DAN LIKUIDITAS SERTA DIVIDEN PAYOUT RATIO TERHADAP RETURN SAHAM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Riawan

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available This study was conducted to examine the influence of fundamental factors of profitability and liquidity on dividend policy (DPR. And furthermore the influence of profitability, liquidity and dividend policy (DPR to return stock in companies incorporated in the Jakarta Islamic Index listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange for the period 2010-2013. The sampling technique used in this research is purposive sampling with criteria : (1 It is listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange 2010-2013. (2 It is always seem annual financial statements for the period 2010- 2013. (3 It is always pay dividends. The data required in this study were drawn from the Indonesian Capital Market Directory (ICMD from 2010 to 2013 consisting of 20 companies. Multiple regression analysis of the data. Hypothesis test used the t-statistic at the 5% significance level. The results showed profitability and dividend policy (DPR have a significant effect on stock returns. These results indicate that the performance of the fundamental factors of profitability and dividend payout on stock returns are used by investors to predict stock returns manufacturing companies listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange in2010-2013.

  16. Exploring the Processes of Self-Development Encountered by Adult Returners to Higher Education: A Lifespan Psychology Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mercer, Jenny

    2010-01-01

    Evidence indicates that non-traditional adult returners describe returning to education as a period of self-development and growth. However, lifespan psychology perspectives also show that successful growth and change involves periods of conflict. This paper will explore both the nature of self-development and conflicts experienced by a sample of…

  17. THE EFFECT OF MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES ON STOCK RETURNS ON DHAKA STOCK EXCHANGE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammed Monjurul Quadir

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This article investigates the effects of macroeconomic variables of treasury bill interest rate and industrial production on stock returns on Dhaka Stock Exchange for the period between January 2000 and February 2007 on the basis of monthly time series data using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA model. The paper has taken the overall market stock returns as an independent variable. It does not consider the stock returns of different companies separately. Though the ARIMA model finds a positive relationship between Treasury bill interest rate and industrial production with market stock returns but the coefficients have turned out to be statistically insignificant.

  18. Enterprise size and return to work after stroke.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hannerz, Harald; Ferm, Linnea; Poulsen, Otto M; Pedersen, Betina Holbæk; Andersen, Lars L

    2012-12-01

    It has been hypothesised that return to work rates among sick-listed workers increases with enterprise size. The aim of the present study was to estimate the effect of enterprise size on the odds of returning to work among previously employed stroke patients in Denmark, 2000-2006. We used a prospective design with a 2 year follow-up period. The study population consisted of 13,178 stroke patients divided into four enterprise sizes categories, according to the place of their employment prior to the stroke: micro (1-9 employees), small (10-49 employees), medium (50-249 employees) and large (>250 employees). The analysis was based on nationwide data on enterprise size from Statistics Denmark merged with data from the Danish occupational hospitalisation register. We found a statistically significant association (p = 0.034); each increase in enterprise size category was followed by an increase in the estimated odds of returning to work. The chances of returning to work after stroke increases as the size of enterprise increases. Preventive efforts and research aimed at finding ways of mitigating the effect are warranted.

  19. Classifying Returns as Extreme: European Stock and Bond Markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Charlotte

    whereby a shorter sample period is needed. For the bond markets the simultaneous extreme return variable (used for analyzing integration and contagion of financial markets) is not statistically different for the two schemes. For the stock markets there are differences, but they are disappearing......I consider the stock and bond markets of 14 EU countries. I use two classification schemes for defining extreme returns: One, the existing univariate classification scheme which considers each market separately. Two, the new multivariate classification scheme that considers all the markets jointly...

  20. Market skewness risk and the cross section of stock returns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chang, B.Y.; Christoffersen, Peter; Jacobs, K.

    2013-01-01

    The cross section of stock returns has substantial exposure to risk captured by higher moments of market returns. We estimate these moments from daily Standard & Poor's 500 index option data. The resulting time series of factors are genuinely conditional and forward-looking. Stocks with high...... exposure to innovations in implied market skewness exhibit low returns on average. The results are robust to various permutations of the empirical setup. The market skewness risk premium is statistically and economically significant and cannot be explained by other common risk factors such as the market...... excess return or the size, book-to-market, momentum, and market volatility factors, or by firm characteristics....

  1. Assessing spatial patterns of extreme droughts associated to return periods from observed dataset: Case study of Segura River Basin (Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    García Galiano, Sandra G.; Diego Giraldo Osorio, Juan

    2013-04-01

    In basins of South-eastern Spain, such as the Segura River Basin (SRB), a strong decrease in runoff from the end of the 1970s has been observed. In the SRB, due to intensive reforestation aimed at halting desertification and erosion, added to climate variability and change, the default assumption of stationarity in water resources systems cannot be guaranteed. Therefore there is an important need for improvement in the ability of monitoring and predicting the impacts associated with the change of hydrologic regime. It is thus necessary to apply non-stationary probabilistic models, which are able to reproduce probability density functions whose parameters vary with time. From a high-resolution daily gridded rainfall dataset of more than 50 years (1950-2007 time period), the spatial distribution of lengths of maximum dry spells for several thresholds are assessed, applying GAMLSS (Generalized Additive Models for Location Scale and Shape) models at grid site. Results reveal an intensification of extreme drought events in some headbasins of the SRB important for water supply. The identification of spatial patterns of drought hazards at basin scale, associated to return periods, contribute to designing strategies of drought contingency preparedness and recovery operations, which are the leading edge of adaptation strategies.

  2. Vibrational spectra of four-coordinated random networks with periodic boundary conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guttman, L.

    1976-01-01

    Examples of perfectly four-coordinated networks satisfying periodic boundary conditions are constructed by a pseudo-random process, starting from a crystalline region. The unphysical features (high density, large deviations from the tetrahedral bond-angle) are removed by systematic modification of the bonding scheme. The vibrational spectra are calculated, using a valence-force potential, and the neutron scattering is computed by a phonon-expansion approximation

  3. THE INFLUENCE OF CORPORATE FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE ON SHARE RETURN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ghulam Nurul Huda

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available This study was conducted to examine the effect of financial performances of Economic Value Added (EVA, Market Value Added (MVA as well as financial ratios (Fixed Asset Turnover, Return on Investment, Debt to Equity Ratio, Price to Book Value, Total Asset Turnover on Stock Return. This study used the data of six representative palm oil companies which were listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange. The analysis models that were used included three multiple regression equations for EVA, MVA and Stock Return. The results indicate that DER significantly influences EVA and PBV, and TATO significantly influences MVA. Return Shares are significantly only affected by EVA. The company's fundamentals, especially EVA, PBV, TATO and DER were used by investors to predict the Stock Return in Indonesia Stock Exchange in 2009–2014 period. This study confirmed the previous studies that these variables are involved on regression model to predict the Stock Return. The results of the analysis of the company's financial performance with EVA and MVA and financial fundamental variables provide a better alternative picture on the achievement of the company so that the benefits in investing in the palm oil business in Indonesia can be maximally managed.Keywords: Indonesia Stock Exchange, investor, market, multiple regression, stock

  4. Rehabilitation and return to sport after hamstring strain injury

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lauren N. Erickson

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Hamstring strain injuries are common among sports that involve sprinting, kicking, and high-speed skilled movements or extensive muscle lengthening-type maneuvers with hip flexion and knee extension. These injuries present the challenge of significant recovery time and a lengthy period of increased susceptibility for recurrent injury. Nearly one third of hamstring strains recur within the first year following return to sport with subsequent injuries often being more severe than the original. This high re-injury rate suggests that athletes may be returning to sport prematurely due to inadequate return to sport criteria. In this review article, we describe the epidemiology, risk factors, differential diagnosis, and prognosis of an acute hamstring strain. Based on the current available evidence, we then propose a clinical guide for the rehabilitation of acute hamstring strains and an algorithm to assist clinicians in the decision-making process when assessing readiness of an athlete to return to sport.

  5. [Psychiatric Inpatient Treatment and Return to Work].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mernyi, Lena; Hölzle, Patricia; Hamann, Johannes

    2017-05-12

    Objective People with mental diseases have a high risk of unemployment and they have only limited access to the labor market. The return to work is often associated with fears.The present study aims to provide an overview of the number of hospitalized psychiatric patients with permanent employment. Moreover it should give an insight into the process of return to work, the experiences patients gain and the support they receive. Methods In the participating clinics we measured the number of patients with permanent employment. The main inclusion criteria for further survey were the status of permanent employment and age between 18 and 65. The participating patients were interviewed on two occasions, at the time of inclusion and 3 months after the patient was discharged. The questions addressed working conditions, job satisfaction and the process of return-to-work. For statistical analysis, descriptive statistics (frequencies, means, standard deviations) were used. Results Only 21 % of n = 815 inpatients of the participating hospitals were permanently employed. Many patients did not return to work after being discharged. In many cases the interviewed patients saw a connection between their job and their current episode of illness. In this context patients reported unsatisfying workplace conditions such as long working hours, bad work organization and social conflicts. Conclusions For mentally ill patients, the employment rate in the primary labor market is devastating low. After psychiatric inpatient treatment patients are at high risk to lose their jobs. In order to prevent this development, work-related stress factors should be discussed with inpatients at an early stage and support should be provided during the return-to-work-process. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

  6. Net returns, fiscal risks, and the optimal patient mix for a profit-maximizing hospital.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ozatalay, S; Broyles, R

    1987-10-01

    As is well recognized, the provisions of PL98-21 not only transfer financial risks from the Medicare program to the hospital but also induce institutions to adjust the diagnostic mix of Medicare beneficiaries so as to maximize net income or minimize the net loss. This paper employs variation in the set of net returns as the sole measure of financial risk and develops a model that identifies the mix of beneficiaries that maximizes net income, subject to a given level of risk. The results indicate that the provisions of PL98-21 induce the institution to deny admission to elderly patients presenting conditions for which the net return is relatively low and the variance in the cost per case is large. Further, the paper suggests that the treatment of beneficiaries at a level commensurate with previous periods or the preferences of physicians may jeopardize the viability and solvency of Medicare-dependent hospitals.

  7. Return of vitrified residues from France to Japan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-08-01

    For more than 15 years now, COGEMA facilities in La Hague have received, stored and reprocessed spent fuel from France, Japan and other countries: Germany, Switzerland, Belgium and the Netherlands. According to contracts, COGEMA ensures the reprocessing service, consisting in separating the recyclable products (uranium and plutonium) from the wastes which are then duly conditioned and returned to their owners for final disposal. The transportation aspects of returning the reprocessed residues to Japan is presented. (K.A.)

  8. Landscape diversity and the resilience of agricultural returns: a portfolio analysis of land-use patterns and economic returns from lowland agriculture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abson David J

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Conventional agriculture is increasingly based on highly specialized, highly productive farms. It has been suggested that 1 this specialization leads to farms that lack resilience to changing market and environmental conditions; and 2 that by decreasing agricultural diversity, the resilience of the farming system also decreases. Methods We used agricultural gross margin (GM forecasts from 1966 to 2010 and remote sensing data from agricultural landscapes in the lowland UK, in conjunction with modern portfolio theory, to test the hypothesis that decreasing land-use diversity results in landscapes that provide higher, but more volatile, economic returns. We considered the role of spatial scale on the expected levels of volatility and resilience of agricultural returns. Results We found that: 1 there was a strong linear trade-off between expected GMs and the expected volatility of those GMs in real lowland agricultural landscapes in the UK; 2 land-use diversification was negatively correlated with expected GMs from agriculture, and positively correlated with decreasing expected volatility in GMs; 3 the resilience of agricultural returns was positively correlated with the diversity of agricultural land use, and the resilience of agricultural returns rose quickly with increased land-holding size at small spatial extents, but this effect diminished after landholdings reached 12,000 hectares. Conclusions Land-use diversity may have an important role in ensuring resilient agricultural returns in the face of uncertain market and environmental conditions, and land-holding size plays a pivotal role in determining the relationships between resilience and returns at a landscape scale. Creating finer-grained land-use patterns based on pre-existing local land uses may increase the resilience of individual farms, while maintaining aggregate yield across landscapes.

  9. Returning home to die: Circular labour migration and mortality in South Africa1

    Science.gov (United States)

    CLARK, SAMUEL J.; COLLINSON, MARK A.; KAHN, KATHLEEN; DRULLINGER, KYLE; TOLLMAN, STEPHEN M.

    2010-01-01

    Aim: To examine the hypothesis that circular labour migrants who become seriously ill while living away from home return to their rural homes to convalesce and possibly to die. Methods: Drawing on longitudinal data collected by the Agincourt health and demographic surveillance system in rural northeastern South Africa between 1995 and 2004, discrete time event history analysis is used to estimate the likelihood of dying for residents, short-term returning migrants, and long-term returning migrants controlling for sex, age, and historical period. Results: The annual odds of dying for short-term returning migrants are generally 1.1 to 1.9 times (depending on period, sex, and age) higher than those of residents and long-term returning migrants, and these differences are generally highly statistically significant. Further supporting the hypothesis is the fact that the proportion of HIV/TB deaths among short-term returning migrants increases dramatically as time progresses, and short-term returning migrants account for an increasing proportion of all HIV/TB deaths. Conclusions: This evidence strongly suggests that increasing numbers of circular labour migrants of prime working age are becoming ill in the urban areas where they work and coming home to be cared for and eventually to die in the rural areas where their families live. This shifts the burden of caring for them in their terminal illness to their families and the rural healthcare system with significant consequences for the distribution and allocation of health care resources. PMID:17676501

  10. The Volatility Effect: Lower Risk without Lower Return

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    D.C. Blitz (David); P. van Vliet (Pim)

    2007-01-01

    textabstractWe present empirical evidence that stocks with low volatility earn high risk-adjusted returns. The annual alpha spread of global low versus high volatility decile portfolios amounts to 12% over the 1986-2006 period. We also observe this volatility effect within the US, European and

  11. Portfolio optimization using Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lucas Pelegrin da Silva

    Full Text Available Abstract This paper investigates the efficiency of traditional portfolio optimization models when the returns of financial assets are highly volatile, e.g., in financial crises periods. We also develop alternative optimization models that combine the mean absolute deviation (MAD and the conditional value at risk (CVaR, attempting to mitigate inefficient, low return and/or high-risk, portfolios. Three methodologies for estimating the probability of the asset’s historical returns are also compared. By using historical data on the Brazilian stock market between 2004 and 2013, we analyze the efficiency of the proposed approaches. Our results show that the traditional models provide portfolios with higher returns, but our propose model are able to generate lower risk portfolios, which might be more attractive in volatile markets. In addition, we find that models that do not use equiprobable scenarios produce better results in terms of return and risk.

  12. Potential benefits of maximal exercise just prior to return from weightlessness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Convertino, Victor A.

    1987-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine whether performance of a single maximal bout of exercise during weightlessness within hours of return to earth would enhance recovery of aerobic fitness and physical work capacities under a 1G environment. Ten healthy men were subjected to a 10-d bedrest period in the 6-deg headdown position. A graded maximal supine cycle ergometer test was performed before and at the end of bedrest to simulate exercise during weightlessness. Following 3 h of resumption of the upright posture, a second maximal exercise test was performed on a treadmill to measure work capacity under conditions of 1G. Compared to before bedrest, peak oxygen consumption, V(O2), decreased by 8.7 percent and peak heart rate (HR) increased by 5.6 percent in the supine cycle test at the end of bedrest. However, there were no significant changes in peak V(O2) and peak HR in the upright treadmill test following bedrest. These data suggest that one bout of maximal leg exercise prior to return from 10 d of weightlessness may be adequate to restore preflight aerobic fitness and physical work capacity.

  13. Chronic treatment with fluoxetine prevents the return of extinguished auditory-cued conditioned fear.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deschaux, Olivier; Spennato, Guillaume; Moreau, Jean-Luc; Garcia, René

    2011-05-01

    We have recently shown that post-extinction exposure of rats to a sub-threshold reminder shock can reactivate extinguished context-related freezing and found that chronic treatment with fluoxetine before fear extinction prevents this phenomenon. In the present study, we examined whether these findings would be confirmed with auditory fear conditioning. Rats were initially submitted to a session of five tone-shock pairings with either a 0.7- or 0.1-mA shock and underwent, 3 days later, a session of 20 tone-alone trials. At the beginning of this latter session, we observed cue-conditioned freezing in rats that received the strong, but not the weak, shock. At the end, both groups (strong and weak shocks) displayed similar low levels of freezing, indicating fear extinction in rats exposed to the strong shock. These rats exhibited again high levels of cue-evoked freezing when exposed to three tone-shock pairings with 0.1-mA shock. This reemergence of cue-conditioned fear was completely abolished by chronic (over a 21-day period) fluoxetine treatment which spared, when administered before the initial fear conditioning, the original tone-shock association. These data extend our previous findings and suggest that chronic fluoxetine treatment favor extinction memory by dampening the reactivation of the original tone-shock association.

  14. US Implied Volatility as A predictor of International Returns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehmet F. Dicle

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available This study provides evidence of the US implied volatility’s e ect on international equitymarkets’ returns. This evidence has two main implications: i investors may find that foreign equityreturns adjusting to US implied volatility may not provide true diversification benefits, and ii foreignequity returns may be predicted using US implied volatility. Our sample includes US volatility index(VIX and major equity indexes in twenty countries for the period between January, 2000 throughJuly, 2017. VIX leads eighteen of the international markets and Granger causes seventeen of themarkets after controlling for the S&P-500 index returns and the 2007/2008 US financial crisis. USinvestors looking to diversify US risk may find that international equities may not provide intendeddiversification benefits. Our evidence provides support for predictability of international equity returnsbased on US volatility.

  15. Dynamic Correlation between Stock Market Returns and Crude Oil Prices: Evidence from a Developing Economy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emenike O. Kalu

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE Modeling the correlation of assets returns volatilities across different markets or segments of a market has practical value for portfolio selection and diversification, market regulation, and risk management. This paper therefore evaluates the nature of time-varying correlation between volatilities of stock market and crude oil returns in Nigeria using Dynamic Conditional Correlation-Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (DCC-GARCH model. Results from DCC-GARCH (1,1 model show evidence of volatility clustering and persistence in Nigeria stock market and crude oil returns. The results also show that there is no dynamic conditional correlation in ARCH effects between stock market returns and crude oil prices in Nigeria. The results further show that there is strong evidence of time-varying volatility correlation between stock market and crude oil returns volatility. The findings will help shape policy-making in risk management and market regulation in Nigeria.

  16. What stock market returns to expect for the future?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diamond, P A

    2000-01-01

    In evaluating proposals for reforming Social Security that involve stock investments, the Office of the Chief Actuary (OCACT) has generally used a 7.0 percent real return for stocks. The 1994-96 Advisory Council specified that OCACT should use that return in making its 75-year projections of investment-based reform proposals. The assumed ultimate real return on Treasury bonds of 3.0 percent implies a long-run equity premium of 4.0 percent. There are two equity-premium concepts: the realized equity premium, which is measured by the actual rates of return; and the required equity premium, which investors expect to receive for being willing to hold available stocks and bonds. Over the past two centuries, the realized premium was 3.5 percent on average, but 5.2 percent for 1926 to 1998. Some critics argue that the 7.0 percent projected stock returns are too high. They base their arguments on recent developments in the capital market, the current high value of the stock market, and the expectation of slower economic growth. Increased use of mutual funds and the decline in their costs suggest a lower required premium, as does the rising fraction of the American public investing in stocks. The size of the decrease is limited, however, because the largest cost savings do not apply to the very wealthy and to large institutional investors, who hold a much larger share of the stock market's total value than do new investors. These trends suggest a lower equity premium for projections than the 5.2 percent of the past 75 years. Also, a declining required premium is likely to imply a temporary increase in the realized premium because a rising willingness to hold stocks tends to increase their price. Therefore, it would be a mistake during a transition period to extrapolate what may be a temporarily high realized return. In the standard (Solow) economic growth model, an assumption of slower long-run growth lowers the marginal product of capital if the savings rate is constant

  17. An analysis of the relation between return and beta for portfolios of Turkish equities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salvatore J. Terregrossa

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The present study investigates the possible existence of a systematic relation between beta and excess-return for portfolios of Turkish equities. In the process, no systematic relation is found between beta and realized portfolio excess-return, in an unconditional sense. However, the study does find a systematic relation between realized portfolio excess-return and beta, conditioned upon the sign of realized market-portfolio excess-return. Moreover, an even stronger systematic relation is found between realized portfolio excess-return and beta, conditioned not only upon the sign, but also the magnitude of realized market-portfolio excess-return, with the estimation of the security market plane (SMP model. The study has several useful implications for portfolio managers. Firstly, the empirical findings strongly suggest that employment of the SMP model may generate more accurate estimations of expected asset-return, compared with straightforward application of the capital asset pricing model (CAPM. Enhanced accuracy of expected asset-return, in turn, may lead to more accurate appraisals of asset value, resulting in more profitable investment opportunities and decisions. Employment of the SMP model may thus lead to enhanced efficient-portfolio development, by leading to construction of portfolios with greater expected-return, for a given class of quantifiable-risk.

  18. Barefoot and in a German kitchen: federal parental leave and benefit policy and the return to work after childbirth in Germany.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ondrich, J; Spiess, C K; Yang, Q

    1996-01-01

    "Since 1979 German federal maternity leave and benefit policy has given women incentives to stay at home and take care of their newborn and youngest children. In 1986 this leave and benefit policy was changed in several ways, turning it into a powerful instrument for delaying mothers' return to work after childbirth.... We estimate post childbirth return to work hazards for women during the federally protected leave protection period and immediately upon completion of this leave period. During the leave mothers are less likely to return to work the longer is the time left in the leave protection period; however, this result cannot be attributed generally to high levels of maternity benefits. When the leave protection period ends, mothers with strong labor force attachment who are still on leave return to their jobs." excerpt

  19. Time-critical Database Condition Data Handling in the CMS Experiment During the First Data Taking Period

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cavallari, Francesca; Gruttola, Michele de; Di Guida, Salvatore; Innocente, Vincenzo; Pfeiffer, Andreas; Govi, Giacomo; Pierro, Antonio

    2011-01-01

    Automatic, synchronous and reliable population of the condition databases is critical for the correct operation of the online selection as well as of the offline reconstruction and analysis of data. In this complex infrastructure, monitoring and fast detection of errors is a very challenging task. In this paper, we describe the CMS experiment system to process and populate the Condition Databases and make condition data promptly available both online for the high-level trigger and offline for reconstruction. The data are automatically collected using centralized jobs or are 'dropped' by the users in dedicated services (offline and online drop-box), which synchronize them and take care of writing them into the online database. Then they are automatically streamed to the offline database, and thus are immediately accessible offline worldwide. The condition data are managed by different users using a wide range of applications. In normal operation the database monitor is used to provide simple timing information and the history of all transactions for all database accounts, and in the case of faults it is used to return simple error messages and more complete debugging information.

  20. Economic analysis of venture capital funds rate of return on venture activity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Usatenko O.V.

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available The research deals with the topic of the analysis of venture capital funds’ rate of return on venture activity. The discovered venture capital funds have such a peculiarity as the involved investors of various types and concentrated financial resources, which lead to advantages in investing. Based on the analyzed scientific approaches to the evaluation of income rate met by various economic entities the paper determines the optimal indicators of such an analysis developed due to the article research. They are supposed to improve significantly the process of making decisions on venture capital investments. The author suggests to evaluate venture capital funds rate of return on venture activity by means of the basic four indicators usually employed for investment efficiency definition: net profit, internal rate of return, return period and return index. The research presents the examination of rates of return on venture activity of venture capital funds being controlled by a single asset management company. Thus, one can estimate not only the rate of return on venture activity, but also the efficiency of control taken by an asset management company.

  1. STATISTICAL MODELLING OF FDC AND RETURN PERIODS TO CHARACTERISE QDF AND DESIGN THRESHOLD OF HYDROLOGICAL EXTREMES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charles Onyutha

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, firstly, flow duration curves (FDCs for hydrological extremes were calibrated for a range of aggregation levels and seasons to provide compressed statistical information for water resources management at selected temporal scales and seasons. Secondly, instead of the common approach of using return periods, T (years for deriving discharge duration frequency (QDF relationships, the method of using exceedance frequencies, E (% was introduced so as to provide answer to important question like, what is the streamflow at a given aggregation level and selected E (%?. Thirdly, the concept of estimated design threshold (EDT was introduced and proposed for consideration in the risk analysis for design of water resources structures. This study was based on the long daily discharge record for the period 1950 – 2008 at station 1EF01 in Kenya, on the Nzoia river with watershed area of 12,676 km2 located in the North Eastern quadrant of Lake Victoria Nile Sub Basin. In the statistical modeling of FDCs and T (years, suitable extreme value distributions (EVD were selected and calibrated to fit nearly independent high flows and low flows. The FDCs and T-curves were used to determine the EDT. The FDCs were used to model the QDF relationships. To derive QDF relationships of hydrological extremes, for a given range of aggregation levels, extreme value analysis (EVA was carried out and suitable EVD selected. Next was the calibration of parameters of the EVD and analysis of relationship between the model parameters and aggregation levels. Finally, smooth mathematical relationships were derived using little but acceptable modifications to the model parameters. Such constructed QDF relationships can be used for various applications to estimate cumulative volumes of water available during droughts or floods at various aggregation levels or E (% of hydrological extremes. The EDT when obtained for a range of aggregation levels can also be used to

  2. STATISTICAL MODELLING OF FDC AND RETURN PERIODS TO CHARACTERISE QDF AND DESIGN THRESHOLD OF HYDROLOGICAL EXTREMES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charles Onyutha

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, firstly, flow duration curves (FDCs for hydrological extremes were calibrated for a range of aggregation levels and seasons to provide compressed statistical information for water resources management at selected temporal scales and seasons. Secondly, instead of the common approach of using return periods, T (years for deriving discharge duration frequency (QDF relationships, the method of using exceedance frequencies, E (% was introduced so as to provide answer to important question like, what is the streamflow at a given aggregation level and selected E (%? Thirdly, the concept of estimated design threshold (EDT was introduced and proposed for consideration in the risk analysis for design of water resources structures. This study was based on the long daily discharge record for the period 1950 - 2008 at station 1EF01 in Kenya, on the Nzoia river with watershed area of 12,676 km² located in the North Eastern quadrant of Lake Victoria Nile Sub Basin. In the statistical modelling of FDCs and T (years, suitable extreme value distributions (EVD were selected and calibrated to fit nearly independent high flows and low flows. The FDCs and T-curves were used to determine the EDT. The FDCs were used to model the QDF relationships. To derive QDF relationships of hydrological extremes, for a given range of aggregation levels, extreme value analysis (EVA was carried out and suitable EVD selected. Next was the calibration of parameters of the EVD and analysis of relationship between the model parameters and aggregation levels. Finally, smooth mathematical relationships were derived using little but acceptable modifications to the model parameters. Such constructed QDF relationships can be used for various applications to estimate cumulative volumes of water available during droughts or floods at various aggregation levels or E (% of hydrological extremes. The EDT when obtained for a range of aggregation levels can also be used to understand

  3. PENGARUH EARNINGS, OPERATING CASH FLOW DAN ASSET GROWTH TERHADAP STOCK RETURN PERUSAHAAN YANG TERDAFTAR PADA INDEKS LQ 45 UNTUK PERIODE 2009-2011

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yulius ,

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this research is to test the impact of earnings, operating cash flow and asset growth to firm’s stock return which listed in LQ 45 index in Indonesian for 2009-2011. The result of this research is earnings, operating cash flow and asset growth have not significant effect to stock return both when those variabels is tested separately or silmutaneously. This result show that earnings, operating cash flow and asset growth are not only the one to be the basis of consideration for investor to make investment to get the stock return. Therefore, for making investment, investor should consider other factors which effect the firm’s stock return as macro economics and politics. Furthermore, from this result, be expected an improvement of quality financial statement which addopted IFRS. Keyword: Earnings, Operating Cash Flow, Asset Growth, Stock Return.

  4. Multifactor analysis of multiscaling in volatility return intervals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Fengzhong; Yamasaki, Kazuko; Havlin, Shlomo; Stanley, H Eugene

    2009-01-01

    We study the volatility time series of 1137 most traded stocks in the U.S. stock markets for the two-year period 2001-2002 and analyze their return intervals tau , which are time intervals between volatilities above a given threshold q . We explore the probability density function of tau , P_(q)(tau) , assuming a stretched exponential function, P_(q)(tau) approximately e;(-tau;(gamma)) . We find that the exponent gamma depends on the threshold in the range between q=1 and 6 standard deviations of the volatility. This finding supports the multiscaling nature of the return interval distribution. To better understand the multiscaling origin, we study how gamma depends on four essential factors, capitalization, risk, number of trades, and return. We show that gamma depends on the capitalization, risk, and return but almost does not depend on the number of trades. This suggests that gamma relates to the portfolio selection but not on the market activity. To further characterize the multiscaling of individual stocks, we fit the moments of tau , mu_(m) identical with(tautau);(m);(1m) , in the range of 10portfolio optimization.

  5. Multifactor analysis of multiscaling in volatility return intervals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Fengzhong; Yamasaki, Kazuko; Havlin, Shlomo; Stanley, H. Eugene

    2009-01-01

    We study the volatility time series of 1137 most traded stocks in the U.S. stock markets for the two-year period 2001-2002 and analyze their return intervals τ , which are time intervals between volatilities above a given threshold q . We explore the probability density function of τ , Pq(τ) , assuming a stretched exponential function, Pq(τ)˜e-τγ . We find that the exponent γ depends on the threshold in the range between q=1 and 6 standard deviations of the volatility. This finding supports the multiscaling nature of the return interval distribution. To better understand the multiscaling origin, we study how γ depends on four essential factors, capitalization, risk, number of trades, and return. We show that γ depends on the capitalization, risk, and return but almost does not depend on the number of trades. This suggests that γ relates to the portfolio selection but not on the market activity. To further characterize the multiscaling of individual stocks, we fit the moments of τ , μm≡⟨(τ/⟨τ⟩)m⟩1/m , in the range of 10portfolio optimization.

  6. ANALISIS ABNORMAL RETURN SAHAMSEBELUM DAN SESUDAH PENGUMUMAN PERATURAN LOAN TO VALUE KPR(Studi Pada Perusahaan Properti Di Bursa Efek Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dwi Suharyanto

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to analyze the abnormal stock return of property companies in Indonesia Stock Exchange as a result of the announcement of Bank Indonesia on  the  restriction  of  the  maximum  Loan  to  Value  (LTV  of  the  mortgage loans.  This  study  uses  event  study,  which  observed  the  average  abnormal return over the 10 days prior to the announcement up to 10 days thereafter. The  results  showed  that  there  was  no  signifi cant  difference  between  the abnormal  returns  before  and  after  the  announcement.  However,  there  is  an increase  in  the  number  of  days  that  experienced  abnormal  returns,  ie  2 (two  days  in  the  period before the announcement of a 5 (fi ve days in the period thereafter. While at the moment of announcement there is no abnormal return. This suggests that the effect of the  announcement  was  not  immediately responded by the market, but there is a lag time for the market to react. These conditions may be caused investors do not have the experience to identify and measure the impact of LTV mortgage regulation. Signifi cant  abnormal  return occurs also varies, which is experiencing abnormal gain 3 days and 4 days of having abnormal loss, which shows the confusion in the market so it happened a few times stock price correction. Another possibility for the market considers these policies also have a positive side. Properties company performance may be declining, but the industry would likely have a positive impact in the long run because it will reduce the risk of price bubbles. Keyword : Abnormal Return, Event Study, Mortgage Loan, Loan to Value.

  7. Upper Bounds for Ruin Probability with Stochastic Investment Return

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG Lihong

    2005-01-01

    Risk models with stochastic investment return are widely held in practice, as well as in more challenging research fields. Risk theory is mainly concerned with ruin probability, and a tight bound for ruin probability is the best for practical use. This paper presents a discrete time risk model with stochastic investment return. Conditional expectation properties and martingale inequalities are used to obtain both exponential and non-exponential upper bounds for the ruin probability.

  8. Dynamic structure of stock communities: a comparative study between stock returns and turnover rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Li-Ling; Jiang, Xiong-Fei; Li, Sai-Ping; Zhong, Li-Xin; Ren, Fei

    2017-07-01

    The detection of community structure in stock market is of theoretical and practical significance for the study of financial dynamics and portfolio risk estimation. We here study the community structures in Chinese stock markets from the aspects of both price returns and turnover rates, by using a combination of the PMFG and infomap methods based on a distance matrix. An empirical study using the overall data set shows that for both returns and turnover rates the largest communities are composed of specific industrial or conceptional sectors and the correlation inside a sector is generally larger than the correlation between different sectors. However, the community structure for turnover rates is more complex than that for returns, which indicates that the interactions between stocks revealed by turnover rates may contain more information. This conclusion is further confirmed by the analysis of the changes in the dynamics of community structures over five sub-periods. Sectors like banks, real estate, health care and New Shanghai take turns to comprise a few of the largest communities in different sub-periods, and more interestingly several specific sectors appear in the communities with different rank orders for returns and turnover rates even in the same sub-period. To better understand their differences, a comparison between the evolution of the returns and turnover rates of the stocks from these sectors is conducted. We find that stock prices only had large changes around important events while turnover rates surged after each of these events relevant to specific sectors, which shows strong evidence that the turnover rates are more susceptible to exogenous shocks than returns and its measurement for community detection may contain more useful information about market structure.

  9. Health Status and Experience of the Migrant Workers Returned from Spain to Colombia: A Qualitative Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zapata-Villa, Carolina; Agudelo-Suárez, Andrés A; Cardona-Arango, Doris; Ronda-Pérez, Elena

    2017-12-14

    This study aims to understand the migratory experience and the employment, work and health conditions of the returned migrants from Spain to Colombia. A qualitative study was conducted by means of 23 semi-structured interviews with Colombian returned migrant workers. Qualitative narrative content analysis was performed using Atlas.Ti software. Main findings are represented by nine categories emerged from the participants' discourses: (1) impact of the economic crisis on work and employment conditions in Spain, (2) economic crisis and return, (3) characteristics of returnees, (4) perception of the returnees about Colombia, (5) the role of social support networks, (6) employment and working conditions in Colombia, (7) health and wellbeing, (8) future plans and expectations, (9) the experience of being immigrant. Adjustment difficulties in participants are evidenced by the return migration process and the conditions of the social, political and economic system in Colombia. Return migration represents the reconfiguration of personal and working lives of this population. This situation requires the development of global policies and strategies in public health to facilitate the adaptation of these people.

  10. Can trade opportunities and returns be generated in a trend persistent series? Evidence from global indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitra, S. K.; Bawa, Jaslene

    2017-03-01

    In this study, we explore the possibility of generating trade opportunities and returns when a financial stock index series is trend persistent. Through application of Hurst coefficient based on the modified range to standard deviation analysis (Weron, 2002) in a sample of 31 leading global indices during the period December 2000 to November 2015, we found periods of trend persistence. We developed and tested a set of trading strategies on these periods of trend persistent in the financial series and found that significant positive returns can be generated when a series displayed upward trend persistence.

  11. Determinants of Return on Assets in Romania: A Principal Component Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sorana Vatavu

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the impact of capital structure, as well as its determinants on the financial performance of Romanian companies listed on the Bucharest Stock Exchange. The analysis is based on cross sectional regressions and factor analysis, and it refers to a ten-year period (2003-2012. Return on assets (ROA is the performance proxy, while the capital structure indicator is debt ratio. Regression results indicate that Romanian companies register higher returns when they operate with limited borrowings. Among the capital structure determinants, tangibility and business risk have a negative impact on ROA, but the level of taxation has a positive effect, showing that companies manage their assets more efficiently during times of higher fiscal pressure. Performance is sustained by sales turnover, but not significantly influenced by high levels of liquidity. Periods of unstable economic conditions, reflected by high inflation rates and the current financial crisis, have a strong negative impact on corporate performance. Based on regression results, three factors were considered through the method of iterated principal component factors: the first one incorporates debt and size, as an indicator of consumption, the second one integrates the influence of tangibility and liquidity, marking the investment potential, and the third one is an indicator of assessed risk, integrating the volatility of earnings with the level of taxation. ROA is significantly influenced by these three factors, regardless the regression method used. The consumption factor has a negative impact on performance, while the investment and risk variables positively influence ROA.

  12. Urban flood return period assessment through rainfall-flood response modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murla Tuyls, Damian; Thorndahl, Søren

    2017-04-01

    Intense rainfall can often cause severe floods, especially in urbanized areas, where population density or large impermeable areas are found. In this context, floods can generate a direct impact in a social-environmental-economic viewpoint. Traditionally, in design of Urban Drainage Systems (UDS), correlation between return period (RP) of a given rainfall and RP of its consequent flood has been assumed to be linear (e.g. DS/EN752 (2008)). However, this is not always the case. Complex UDS, where diverse hydraulic infrastructures are often found, increase the heterogeneity of system response, which may cause an alteration of the mentioned correlation. Consequently, reliability on future urban planning, design and resilience against floods may be also affected by this misassumption. In this study, an assessment of surface flood RP across rainfall RP has been carried out at Lystrup, a urbanized catchment area of 440ha and 10.400inhab. located in Jutland (Denmark), which has received the impact of several pluvial flooding in the last recent years. A historical rainfall dataset from the last 35 years from two different rain gauges located at 2 and 10 km from the study area has been provided by the Danish Wastewater Pollution Committee and the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI). The most extreme 25 rainfall events have been selected through a two-step multi-criteria procedure, ensuring an adequate variability of rainfall, from extreme high peak storms with a short duration to moderate rainfall with longer duration. In addition, a coupled 1D/2D surface and network UDS model of the catchment area developed in an integrated MIKE URBAN and MIKE Flood model (DHI 2014), considering both permeable and impermeable areas, in combination with a DTM (2x2m res.) has been used to study and assess in detail flood RP. Results show an ambiguous relation between rainfall RP and flood response. Local flood levels, flood area and volume RP estimates should therefore not be neglected in

  13. Thermal properties of nuclear matter under the periodic boundary condition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Otuka, Naohiko; Ohnishi, Akira

    1999-01-01

    We present the thermal properties of nuclear matter under the periodic boundary condition by the use of our hadronic nucleus-nucleus cascade model (HANDEL) which is developed to treat relativistic heavy-ion collisions from BNL-AGS to CERN-SPS. We first show some results of p-p scattering calculation in our new version which is improved in order to treat isospin ratio and multiplicity more accurately. We then display the results of calculation of nuclear matter with baryon density ρ b = 0.77 fm 3 at some energy densities. Time evolution of particle abundance and temperature are shown. (author)

  14. Gender Gap in Returns to Schooling in Palestine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daoud, Yousef

    2005-01-01

    This study provides estimates of the private returns to schooling in Palestine utilizing eight quarterly labor force surveys for 1999 and 2001. This period was chosen to investigate the differential impact of the Israeli closure policy on Palestinian male and female workers. Although gross enrollment ratios for males and females reveal little to…

  15. Return Migrants’ Experience of Access to Care in Corrupt Healthcare Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Handlos, Line Neerup; Olwig, Karen Fog; Bygbjerg, Ib Christian

    2016-01-01

    unstudied, even though return migrants may be particularly vulnerable to problems related to corruption due to their period of absence from their country of origin. This article investigates how corruption in the healthcare sector affects access to healthcare for refugees who repatriated to Bosnia......Equal and universal access to healthcare services is a core priority for a just health system. A key societal determinant seen to create inequality in access to healthcare is corruption in the healthcare system. How return migrants’ access to healthcare is affected by corruption is largely......, a country with a high level of corruption, from Denmark, a country with a low level of corruption. The study is based on 18 semi-structured interviews with 33 refugees who returned after long-term residence in Denmark. We found that the returned refugees faced greater problems with corruption than...

  16. 26 CFR 301.6103(h)(2)-1 - Disclosure of returns and return information (including taxpayer return information) to and by...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... administration. 301.6103(h)(2)-1 Section 301.6103(h)(2)-1 Internal Revenue INTERNAL REVENUE SERVICE, DEPARTMENT... Returns Returns and Records § 301.6103(h)(2)-1 Disclosure of returns and return information (including..., shall, to the extent provided by section 6103(h)(2) (A), (B), and (C) and subject to the requirements of...

  17. A new daily dividend-adjusted index for the Danish stock market, 1985-2002: Construction, statistical properties, and return predictability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Belter, Klaus; Engsted, Tom; Tanggaard, Carsten

    2005-01-01

    is given. In the second part of the paper we analyze the time-series properties of daily, weekly, and monthly returns, and we present evidence on predictability of multi-period returns. We also compare stock returns with the returns on long-term bonds and short-term money market instruments (that is......We present a new dividend-adjusted blue chip index for the Danish stock market covering the period 1985-2002. In contrast to other indices on the Danish stock market, the index is calculated on a daily basis. In the first part of the paper a detailed description of the construction of the index...

  18. PENGARUH PENGUMUMAN DIVIDEN TERHADAP PERUBAHAN HARGA SAHAM (RETURN SEBELUM DAN SESUDAH EX -DIVIDEND DATE DI

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Andi Sularso

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available This research objective is to analyze the influence of ex-dividend date announcement in the Jakarta Stock Exchange by taking 14 samples of shares. There are two kinds of samples, increasing dividend and decreasing divindend. 120-days of observation will be divided into 90-days estimation period and 30-days event period, including 15 days before and after the event. The method used in this research is event study that observe the stock price movement in the capital market. To examine the existence of price reaction, the abnormal return test will be conducted during the event period with analysis based on the concpet of CAPM (Capital Assets Pricing Model and the abnormal return test to the increasing and decreasing dividend at the ex-dividend date. The result indicate that at the significant level of 10%, there are two working days which yield the abnormal return that is significant at the increasing dividend. Those are the fourth day before the event date with the value of 0.0011102 or around 0.1%, and the fifth day after the event date with the value of -0.32184 or approximately 3%. Whereas the decreasing divideng reveals that there are three days that deliver the abnormal return which is significant. Those are thirteentg and the second day before the event date with the value of 0.028263 or approximately 2% and 0.0166274 or approximately 1%, as well as at the fifth day after the event date with the value of 0.029105 or 3%. The final conclusion is that stock price will negatively reacted to the announcement of increasing dividend at the ex-dividend date and positively reacted to the announcement of the decreasing dividend at the ex-dividend date. Abstract in Bahasa Indonesia : Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh pengumuman ex-dividend date di Bursa Efek Jakarta, dengan mengambil sampel 14 saham. Sampel dibagi menjadi dua, yaitu dividen naik dan dividen turun. Periode penelitian selama 120 hari yang dibagi menjadi dua periode

  19. Analisis Karakteristik Perusahaan Dan Ekonomi Makro Pada Return Saham Syariah Dan Non Syariah

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ardi Hamzah

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available The objectives of this paper are to determine, to examine, and to test whether firm characteristic and macro economics are the important discriminators for return of syariah and non syariah stock; to determine whether there are any differences in return of some syariah and non syariah stock; to determine and to test whether there is a relationship between return and firm characteristic and macro economis in some syariah and non syariah stock. The total sample is 300 stock that were taken each from 150 for syariah stock and 150 for non syariah stock for period 2005 – 2009. The study also showed that there is a difference in return between syariah and non syariah stock. Finally,with regression analysis indicated that partially price book value, price earnings ratio, and kurs rupiah on dollar significantly effect on return of syariah stock, while for return of non syariah stock only kurs rupiah on dollar that significantly effect on return of non syariah stock. For testing with simultant regression indicate firm characteristic and macro economics significantly effect on return of syariah stock, while at return of non syariah stock not significantly effect.

  20. Bank Stock Returns in Responding the Contribution of Fundamental and Macroeconomic Effects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ridwan Nurazi

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available This study attempts to examine the effect of financial fundamentals information using CAMELS ratios and macroeconomics variables surrogated by interest rate, exchange rate, and inflation rate toward stock return. By employing panel data analysis (Pooled Least Squared Model, the results reveal that several financial ratios perform a bit contrary to the theory, in which the ratio of CAR shows positive sign but insignificantly contributes to stock returns. Also, the ratio of NPL does not affect the return. In fact, ROE and LDR positively and significantly contribute toward banks’ stock return. Meanwhile, NIM and BOPO show negative signs. The other macroeconomic variables, interest rate (IR, exchange rate (ER and inflation rate (INF are consistent with the a priori expectation, in which those variables negatively and significantly contribute to stock return of 16 banks, for the observation period from 2002 to 2011 in the Indonesian banking sector.

  1. PEMBENTUKAN PORTOFOLIO OPTIMAL SAHAM-SAHAM PADA PERIODE BULLISH DI BURSA EFEK INDONESIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suramaya Suci Kewal

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstrak: Pembentukan Portofolio Optimal Saham-Saham Pada Periode Bullish Di Bursa Efek Indonesia. Penelitian ini dilakukan dengan tujuan untuk menyusun portofolio optimal saham yang tercatat di Bursa Efek Indonesia dengan menggunakan model indeks tunggal pada periode Bullish. Periode penelitian yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah 2009-2011. Hasilnya adalah tersusunnya sebuah portofolio saham yang terdiri dari empat saham, yaitu ASRI (48,72%, INDF (28,24%, BBNI (16,32%, dan BKSL (6.71%. Hasil pengujian hipotesis pertama menunjukkan bahwa ada perbedaan dalam return saham dari portofolio candidate dibandingkan dengan portofolio noncandidate. Hasil pengujian hipotesis kedua menunjukkan bahwa tidak ada perbedaan dalam risiko saham yang termasuk dalam portofolio candidate dibandingkan dengan portofolio noncandidate. Kata kunci: portofolio optimal, model single-index   Abstract: Establishment of Optimal Portfolio Shares On Bullish Period In Indonesia Stock Exchange. This study was conducted in order to establish an optimal portfolio of stocks listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange using a single index model on Bullish conditions. Period of research used in this study is 2009-2011. The result is the formation of a stock portfolio consisting of four stocks, namely ASRI (48.72%, INDF (28.24%, BBNI (16.32%, and BKSL (6.71%. The test results of the first hypothesis suggests that there are differences in stock returns a stock portfolio of candidates as compared to the noncandidate portfolio. The results of testing the second hypothesis suggests that there is no difference in the risk of stocks included in candidate portfolios as compared to the noncandidate portfolio. Keywords: optimal portfolios, single-index models

  2. Periodic spring–mass running over uneven terrain through feedforward control of landing conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    III, Luther R Palmer; Eaton, Caitrin E

    2014-01-01

    This work pursues a feedforward control algorithm for high-speed legged locomotion over uneven terrain. Being able to rapidly negotiate uneven terrain without visual or a priori information about the terrain will allow legged systems to be used in time-critical applications and alongside fast-moving humans or vehicles. The algorithm is shown here implemented on a spring-loaded inverted pendulum model in simulation, and can be configured to approach fixed running height over uneven terrain or self-stable terrain following. Offline search identifies unique landing conditions that achieve a desired apex height with a constant stride period over varying ground levels. Because the time between the apex and touchdown events is directly related to ground height, the landing conditions can be computed in real time as continuous functions of this falling time. Enforcing a constant stride period reduces the need for inertial sensing of the apex event, which is nontrivial for physical systems, and allows for clocked feedfoward control of the swing leg. (paper)

  3. Periodic spring-mass running over uneven terrain through feedforward control of landing conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palmer, Luther R; Eaton, Caitrin E

    2014-09-01

    This work pursues a feedforward control algorithm for high-speed legged locomotion over uneven terrain. Being able to rapidly negotiate uneven terrain without visual or a priori information about the terrain will allow legged systems to be used in time-critical applications and alongside fast-moving humans or vehicles. The algorithm is shown here implemented on a spring-loaded inverted pendulum model in simulation, and can be configured to approach fixed running height over uneven terrain or self-stable terrain following. Offline search identifies unique landing conditions that achieve a desired apex height with a constant stride period over varying ground levels. Because the time between the apex and touchdown events is directly related to ground height, the landing conditions can be computed in real time as continuous functions of this falling time. Enforcing a constant stride period reduces the need for inertial sensing of the apex event, which is nontrivial for physical systems, and allows for clocked feedfoward control of the swing leg.

  4. Global exponential stability and periodicity of reaction-diffusion recurrent neural networks with distributed delays and Dirichlet boundary conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lu Junguo; Lu Linji

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, global exponential stability and periodicity of a class of reaction-diffusion recurrent neural networks with distributed delays and Dirichlet boundary conditions are studied by constructing suitable Lyapunov functionals and utilizing some inequality techniques. We first prove global exponential convergence to 0 of the difference between any two solutions of the original neural networks, the existence and uniqueness of equilibrium is the direct results of this procedure. This approach is different from the usually used one where the existence, uniqueness of equilibrium and stability are proved in two separate steps. Secondly, we prove periodicity. Sufficient conditions ensuring the existence, uniqueness, and global exponential stability of the equilibrium and periodic solution are given. These conditions are easy to verify and our results play an important role in the design and application of globally exponentially stable neural circuits and periodic oscillatory neural circuits.

  5. Coordination of a supply chain with consumer return under vendor-managed consignment inventory and stochastic demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Zhihui; Chen, Dongyan; Yu, Hui

    2016-07-01

    In this paper, the problem of the coordination policy is investigated for vendor-managed consignment inventory supply chain subject to consumer return. Here, the market demand is assumed to be affected by promotional effort and consumer return policy. The optimal consignment inventory and the optimal promotional effort level are proposed under the decentralized and centralized decisions. Based on the optimal decision conditions, the markdown allowance-promotional cost-sharing contract is investigated to coordinate the supply chain. Subsequently, the comparison between the two extreme policies shows that full-refund policy dominates the no-return policy when the returning cost and the positive effect of return policy are satisfied certain conditions. Finally, a numerical example is provided to illustrate the impacts of consumer return policy on the coordination contract and optimal profit as well as the effectiveness of the proposed supply chain decision.

  6. On the transfer matrix of the supersymmetric eight-vertex model. I. Periodic boundary conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagendorf, Christian; Liénardy, Jean

    2018-03-01

    The square-lattice eight-vertex model with vertex weights a, b, c, d obeying the relation (a^2+ab)(b^2+ab) = (c^2+ab)(d^2+ab) and periodic boundary conditions is considered. It is shown that the transfer matrix of the model for L  =  2n  +  1 vertical lines and periodic boundary conditions along the horizontal direction possesses the doubly degenerate eigenvalue \\Thetan = (a+b){\\hspace{0pt}}2n+1 . This proves a conjecture by Stroganov from 2001. The proof uses the supersymmetry of a related XYZ spin-chain Hamiltonian. The eigenstates of the transfer matrix corresponding to \\Thetan are shown to be the ground states of the spin-chain Hamiltonian. Moreover, for positive vertex weights \\Thetan is the largest eigenvalue of the transfer matrix.

  7. Advanced quadratures and periodic boundary conditions in parallel 3D Sn transport

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Manalo, K.; Yi, C.; Huang, M.; Sjoden, G.

    2013-01-01

    Significant updates in numerical quadratures have warranted investigation with 3D Sn discrete ordinates transport. We show new applications of quadrature departing from level symmetric ( 2 o) and Pn-Tn (>S 2 o). investigating 3 recently developed quadratures: Even-Odd (EO), Linear-Discontinuous Finite Element - Surface Area (LDFE-SA), and the non-symmetric Icosahedral Quadrature (IC). We discuss implementation changes to 3D Sn codes (applied to Hybrid MOC-Sn TITAN and 3D parallel PENTRAN) that can be performed to accommodate Icosahedral Quadrature, as this quadrature is not 90-degree rotation invariant. In particular, as demonstrated using PENTRAN, the properties of Icosahedral Quadrature are suitable for trivial application using periodic BCs versus that of reflective BCs. In addition to implementing periodic BCs for 3D Sn PENTRAN, we implemented a technique termed 'angular re-sweep' which properly conditions periodic BCs for outer eigenvalue iterative loop convergence. As demonstrated by two simple transport problems (3-group fixed source and 3-group reflected/periodic eigenvalue pin cell), we remark that all of the quadratures we investigated are generally superior to level symmetric quadrature, with Icosahedral Quadrature performing the most efficiently for problems tested. (authors)

  8. Nonlinear analysis of field distribution in electric motor with periodicity conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stabrowski, M M; Sikora, J

    1981-01-01

    Numerical analysis of electromagnetic field distribution in linear motion tubular electric motor has been performed with the aid of finite element method. Two Fortran programmes for the solution of DBBF and BF large linear symmetric equation systems have been developed for purposes of this analysis. A new iterative algorithm, taking into account iron nonlinearity and periodicity conditions, has been introduced. Final results of the analysis in the form of induction diagrammes and motor driving force are directly useful for motor designers.

  9. Extreme values of meteorological parameters observed at Kalpakkam during the period 1968-1999

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Balagurunathan, M.R.; Chandresekharan, E.; Rajan, M.P.; Gurg, R.P.

    2001-05-01

    In the design phase of engineering structures, an understanding of extreme weather conditions that may occur at the site of interest is very essential, so that the structures can be designed to withstand climatological stresses during its life time. In this report an analysis of extreme values of meteorological parameters at Kalpakkam for the period 1968-99, which provide an insight into such situations is described. The extreme value analysis reveals that all the variables obey Fisher-Tippet Type-I extreme value distribution function. Parameter values of extreme value analysis functions are presented for the variables studied and the 50- and 100- year return period extreme values are arrived at. Frequency distribution of rainfall parameters is investigated. Time series of annual rainfall data suggests a cycle of 2-3 years period. (author)

  10. Maternal perspectives on the return of genetic results: context matters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lakes, Kimberley D; Vaughan, Elaine; Lemke, Amy; Jones, Marissa; Wigal, Timothy; Baker, Dean; Swanson, James M; Burke, Wylie

    2013-01-01

    The objectives of this study were to study maternal preferences for the return of their child's genetic results and to describe the experiences, perceptions, attitudes, and values that are brought to bear when individuals from different racial and cultural backgrounds consider participating in genetic research. We recruited women with diverse sociodemographic profiles to participate in seven focus groups. Twenty-eight percent of participants self-identified as Hispanic; 49% as White, non-Hispanic; and 21% as Asian or Asian American. Focus groups were conducted in English or Spanish and were audio-recorded and transcribed verbatim. Transcripts were analyzed using qualitative thematic methods. Results indicated that preferences and decisions regarding the return of results may depend on both research and individual contextual factors. Participants understood the return of results as a complex issue, where individual and cultural differences in preferences are certain to arise. Another key finding was that participants desired an interpersonal, dynamic, flexible process that accommodated individual preferences and contextual differences for returning results. Our findings indicate a need to have well-developed systems for allowing participants to make and change over time their choices regarding the return of their child's genetic results. Copyright © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  11. Analyzing traffic source impact on returning visitors ratio in information provider website

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prasetio, A.; Sari, P. K.; Sharif, O. O.; Sofyan, E.

    2016-04-01

    Web site performance, especially returning visitor is an important metric for an information provider web site. Since high returning visitor is a good indication of a web site’s visitor loyalty, it is important to find a way to improve this metric. This research investigated if there is any difference on returning visitor metric among three web traffic sources namely direct, referral and search. Monthly returning visitor and total visitor from each source is retrieved from Google Analytics tools and then calculated to measure returning visitor ratio. The period of data observation is from July 2012 to June 2015 resulting in a total of 108 samples. These data then analysed using One-Way Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) to address our research question. The results showed that different traffic source has significantly different returning visitor ratio especially between referral traffic source and the other two traffic sources. On the other hand, this research did not find any significant difference between returning visitor ratio from direct and search traffic sources. The owner of the web site can focus to multiply referral links from other relevant sites.

  12. Periodic traveling compression regions during quiet geomagnetic conditions and their association with ground Pi2

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Keiling

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available Recently, Keiling et al. (2006 showed that periodic (~90 s traveling compression regions (TCRs during a substorm had properties of Pi2 pulsations, prompting them to call this type of periodic TCRs "lobe Pi2". It was further shown that time-delayed ground Pi2 had the same period as the lobe Pi2 located at 16 RE, and it was concluded that both were remotely driven by periodic, pulsed reconnection in the magnetotail. In the study reported here, we give further evidence for this association by reporting additional periodic TCR events (lobe Pi2s at 18 RE all of which occurred in succession during a geomagnetically very quiet, non-substorm period. Each quiet-time periodic TCR event occurred during an interval of small H-bay-like ground disturbance (<40 nT. Such disturbances have previously been identified as poleward boundary intensifications (PBIs. The small H bays were superposed by Pi2s. These ground Pi2s are compared to the TCRs in the tail lobe (Cluster and both magnetic pulsations and flow variations at 9 RE inside the plasma sheet (Geotail. The main results of this study are: (1 Further evidence is given that periodic TCRs in the tail lobe at distances of 18 RE and ground Pi2 are related phenomena. In particular, it is shown that both had the same periodicity and occurred simultaneously (allowing for propagation time delays strongly suggesting that both had the same periodic source. Since the TCRs were propagating Earthward, this source was located in the outer magnetosphere beyond 18 RE. (2 The connection of periodic TCRs and ground Pi2 also exists during very quiet geomagnetic conditions with PBIs present in addition to the previous result (Keiling et al., 2006 which showed this connection during substorms. (3 Combining (1 and (2, we conclude that the frequency of PBI-associated Pi2 is controlled in the outer magnetosphere as opposed to the

  13. Predictable return distributions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Thomas Quistgaard

    trace out the entire distribution. A univariate quantile regression model is used to examine stock and bond return distributions individually, while a multivariate model is used to capture their joint distribution. An empirical analysis on US data shows that certain parts of the return distributions......-of-sample analyses show that the relative accuracy of the state variables in predicting future returns varies across the distribution. A portfolio study shows that an investor with power utility can obtain economic gains by applying the empirical return distribution in portfolio decisions instead of imposing...

  14. Region-specific roles of the prelimbic cortex, the dorsal CA1, the ventral DG and ventral CA1 of the hippocampus in the fear return evoked by a sub-conditioning procedure in rats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Juan; Xing, Xiaoli; Han, Mengfi; Xu, Na; Piao, Chengji; Zhang, Yue; Zheng, Xigeng

    2016-02-01

    The return of learned fear is an important issue in anxiety disorder research since an analogous process may contribute to long-term fear maintenance or clinical relapse. A number of studies demonstrate that mPFC and hippocampus are important in the modulation of post-extinction re-expression of fear memory. However, the region-specific role of these structures in the fear return evoked by a sub-threshold conditioning (SC) is not known. In the present experiments, we first examined specific roles of the prelimbic cortex (PL), the dorsal hippocampus (DH, the dorsal CA1 area in particular), the ventral hippocampus (the ventral dentate gyrus (vDG) and the ventral CA1 area in particular) in this fear return process. Then we examined the role of connections between PL and vCA1 with this behavioral approach. Rats were subjected to five tone-shock pairings (1.0-mA shock) to induce conditioned fear (freezing), followed by three fear extinction sessions (25 tone-alone trials each session). After a post-test for extinction memory, some rats were retrained with the SC procedure to reinstate tone-evoked freezing. Rat groups were injected with low doses of the GABAA agonist muscimol to selectively inactivate PL, DH, vDG, or vCA1 120 min before the fear return test. A disconnection paradigm with ipsilateral or contralateral muscimol injection of the PL and the vCA1 was used to examine the role of this pathway in the fear return. We found that transient inactivation of these areas significantly impaired fear return (freezing): inactivation of the prelimbic cortex blocked SC-evoked fear return in particular but did not influence fear expression in general; inactivation of the DH area impaired fear return, but had no effect on the extinction retrieval process; both ventral DG and ventral CA1 are required for the return of extinguished fear whereas only ventral DG is required for the extinction retrieval. These findings suggest that PL, DH, vDG, and vCA1 all contribute to the fear

  15. Conditioning of TJ-II Stellarator during the ECRH Plasmas Period

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tafalla, D.; Tabares, F. L.

    2001-01-01

    The TJ-II stellarator has been conditioned by glow discharge (GD) during the first campaigns of operation, working only with ECR heating and all metal walls. The application of a He GD during the overnight period before the operation has been required in order to obtain reproducible discharges. However, the density control of the ECRH discharges was not possible because of the He implanted on the wall during GS. An short Ar GD(≤30 min) applied before the operation allows desorbes part of the implanted He. By applying this procedure (HeGD+ArGD), reproducible and density controlled plasmas have been achieved in H 2 and He. (Author) 20 refs

  16. Hard assets : The return of rare diamonds and gems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Renneboog, Luc; Spaenjers, Christophe; Grynberg, Roman; Mbayi, Letsema

    This note examines the investment performance of diamonds and other gems (sapphires, rubies, and emeralds) over the period 1999–2010, using a novel data set of auction transactions. Over our time frame, the annualized real USD returns for white and colored diamonds equaled 6.4% and 2.9%,

  17. Hard assets : The return on rare diamonds and gems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Renneboog, L.D.R.; Spaenjers, C.

    2012-01-01

    This note examines the investment performance of diamonds and other gems (sapphires, rubies, and emeralds) over the period 1999–2010, using a novel data set of auction transactions. Over our time frame, the annualized real USD returns for white and colored diamonds equaled 6.4% and 2.9%,

  18. Hard Assets : The Returns on Rare Diamonds and Gems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Renneboog, L.D.R.; Spaenjers, C.

    2011-01-01

    This paper examines the investment performance of diamonds and other gems (sapphires, rubies, and emeralds) over the period 1999-2010, using a novel data set of auction transactions. Between 1999 and 2010, the annualized real USD returns for white and colored diamonds equaled 6.4% and 2.9%,

  19. The Olympic Games as reflection conditions of development Ancient Greek civilization in Hellenism period

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kasianenko Ol'ga Gennadievna

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available The author has realized the historical analysis of the Olympic Games at consideration the conditions of Ancient Greek civilization development in Hellenism period. Had presented the division into the periodization of Greek civilization development in which had learned a major changes in the world-view of Hellenes under the A. Macedonian influence, notably: professionalization of sport and gradual fading of ideals, making basis of olympism, and also Christianity following late which results in the decline of the Olympic Games.

  20. Erosividade das chuvas associada a períodos de retorno e probabilidade de ocorrência no estado do Rio de Janeiro Rainfall erosivity associated to return periods and occurrence probability in the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roriz Luciano Machado

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available O conhecimento da erosividade das chuvas associada à probabilidade de ocorrência e ao período de retorno pode contribuir para o planejamento conservacionista de uma região, em médio e longo prazo. A fim de gerar informações para melhor utilizar modelos e controle da erosão, dados de chuvas de 30 séries pluviográficas e pluviométricas, abrangendo 25 municípios, entre 1933 e 2006, foram estudados quanto à adequação das séries e do cálculo da probabilidade de ocorrência teórica (P e período de retorno (T da erosividade das chuvas (EI30 e KE>25, para o Estado do Rio de Janeiro. Foi feita a espacialização do potencial erosivo associado aos períodos de retorno de 2, 5, 10, 20, 50 e 100 anos para todo o Estado. A erosividade anual média (EI30 ou fator R da USLE para qualquer localidade no Estado do Rio de Janeiro pode ser igualada ou superada pelo menos uma vez, em média, em um período de 1,8 a 2,1 anos, com faixa de 48,5 a 54,9 % de probabilidade de ocorrência teórica. As localidades que apresentam maior erosividade associada aos períodos de retorno estão situadas nas mesorregiões Metropolitanas e em partes das mesorregiões Sul e Centro Fluminense. Foi possível identificar de oito a 12 regiões homogêneas, quanto à distribuição espacial da erosividade associada aos períodos de retorno de dois para 100 anos no Estado. De modo geral, a maior variação da distribuição espacial da erosividade apresenta-se na faixa de período de retorno de dois a cinco anos.Knowledge on rainfall erosivity associated to occurrence probability and return periods can contribute to conservation planning in the medium and long term. With the objective of generating information for a better use of medium and long-term erosion models and erosion control, rainfall data of 30 pluviometric and pluviographic data sets from 25 cities ranging from 1933 to 2006 were studied in terms of adjustment of data sets, calculation of the probability of

  1. The role of remote voting in encouraging return

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Djordje Stefanovic

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Once there is a genuine possibility of going home, what influences a forced migrant’s decision to return to a pre-conflict residence, often in the face of very difficult conditions? What role can remote voting play?

  2. A Comparative Study on the Positive Lightning Return Stroke Electric Fields in Different Meteorological Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chin-Leong Wooi

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Positive cloud-ground lightning is considerably more complex and less studied compared to the negative lightning. This paper aims to measure and characterize the significant parameters of positive return strokes electric field, namely, the zero-to-peak rise time, 10–90% rise time, slow front duration, fast transition rise time (10–90%, zero-crossing time, and opposite polarity overshoot relative to peak. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first time such detailed characteristics of positive lightning in Malaysia are thoroughly analyzed. A total of 41 positive lightning flashes containing 48 return strokes were analyzed. The average multiplicity is 1.2 strokes per flash. The majority of positive lightning was initiated from the primary positive charge rather than as a byproduct of in-cloud discharges. The cumulative probability distribution of rise time parameters, opposite polarity overshoot relative to peak, and slow front amplitude relative to peak are presented. A comparison between studies in four countries representing tropic, subtropic, and temperate regions was also carried out. Measured parameters in Florida, Sweden, and Japan are generally lower than those in Malaysia. Positive lightning occurrences in tropical regions should be further studied and analyzed to improve our current understanding on positive return strokes.

  3. 26 CFR 1.6694-4 - Extension of period of collection when tax return preparer pays 15 percent of a penalty for...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... TREASURY (CONTINUED) INCOME TAX (CONTINUED) INCOME TAXES Additions to the Tax, Additional Amounts, and... assessment, the IRS will also send, before assessment of either penalty, a 30-day letter to the tax return preparer notifying him of the proposed penalty or penalties and offering an opportunity to the tax return...

  4. The Transmission of U.S. Election Cycles to International Stock Returns

    OpenAIRE

    Stephen R Foerster; John J Schmitz

    1997-01-01

    This paper examines the international pervasiveness and importance of the previously uncovered four-year U.S. election cycle whereby U.S. stock returns are significantly lower, and negative, in year 2 following U.S. presidential election relative to years 1, 3 and 4. All eighteen countries examined over the 1957 to 1996 time period possess lower local currency stock market capital gains returns in year 2 (-0.66%) relative to the average capital gains of years 1, 3 and 4 (11.68%). These predom...

  5. Long memory volatility of gold price returns: How strong is the evidence from distinct economic cycles?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bentes, Sonia R.

    2016-02-01

    This paper examines the long memory behavior in the volatility of gold returns using daily data for the period 1985-2009. We divided the whole sample into eight sub-samples in order to analyze the robustness and consistency of our results during different crisis periods. This constitutes our main contribution. We cover four major world crises, namely, (i) the US stock market crash of 1987; (ii) the Asian financial crisis of 1997; (iii) the World Trade Center terrorist attack of 2001 and finally, (iv) the sub-prime crisis of 2007, in order to investigate how the fractional integrated parameter of the FIGARCH(1, d,1) model evolves over time. Our findings are twofold: (i) there is evidence of long memory in the conditional variance over the whole sample period; (ii) when we consider the sub-sample analysis, the results show mixed evidence. Thus, for the 1985-2003 period the long memory parameter is positive and statistically significant in the pre-crisis sub-samples, and there is no evidence of long memory in the crisis sub-sample periods; however the reverse pattern occurs for the 2005-2009 period. This highlights the unique characteristics of the 2007 sub-prime crisis.

  6. The Risk Return Relationship: Evidence from Index Return and Realised Variance Series

    OpenAIRE

    Minxian Yang

    2014-01-01

    The risk return relationship is analysed in bivariate models for return and realised variance(RV) series. Based on daily time series from 21 international market indices for more than 13 years (January 2000 to February 2013), the empirical findings support the arguments of risk return tradeoff, volatility feedback and statistical balance. It is reasoned that the empirical risk return relationship is primarily shaped by two important data features: the negative contemporaneous correlation betw...

  7. Forecasting return products in an integrated forward/reverse supply chain utilizing an ANFIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kumar D. Thresh

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Interests in Closed-Loop Supply Chain (CLSC issues are growing day by day within the academia, companies, and customers. Many papers discuss profitability or cost reduction impacts of remanufacturing, but a very important point is almost missing. Indeed, there is no guarantee about the amounts of return products even if we know a lot about demands of first products. This uncertainty is due to reasons such as companies’ capabilities in collecting End-of-Life (EOL products, customers’ interests in returning (and current incentives, and other independent collectors. The aim of this paper is to deal with the important gap of the uncertainties of return products. Therefore, we discuss the forecasting method of return products which have their own open-loop supply chain. We develop an integrated two-phase methodology to cope with the closed-loop supply chain design and planning problem. In the first phase, an Adaptive Network Based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS is presented to handle the uncertainties of the amounts of return product and to determine the forecasted return rates. In the second phase, and based on the results of the first one, the proposed multi-echelon, multi-product, multi-period, closed-loop supply chain network is optimized. The second-phase optimization is undertaken based on using general exact solvers in order to achieve the global optimum. Finally, the performance of the proposed forecasting method is evaluated in 25 periods using a numerical example, which contains a pattern in the returning of products. The results reveal acceptable performance of the proposed two-phase optimization method. Based on them, such forecasting approaches can be applied to real-case CLSC problems in order to achieve more reliable design and planning of the network

  8. On fractality and chaos in Moroccan family business stock returns and volatility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lahmiri, Salim

    2017-05-01

    The purpose of this study is to examine existence of fractality and chaos in returns and volatilities of family business companies listed on the Casablanca Stock Exchange (CSE) in Morocco, and also in returns and volatility of the CSE market index. Detrended fluctuation analysis based Hurst exponent and fractionally integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (FIGARCH) model are used to quantify fractality in returns and volatility time series respectively. Besides, the largest Lyapunov exponent is employed to quantify chaos in both time series. The empirical results from sixteen family business companies follow. For return series, fractality analysis show that most of family business returns listed on CSE exhibit anti-persistent dynamics, whilst market returns have persistent dynamics. Besides, chaos tests show that business family stock returns are not chaotic while market returns exhibit evidence of chaotic behaviour. For volatility series, fractality analysis shows that most of family business stocks and market index exhibit long memory in volatility. Furthermore, results from chaos tests show that volatility of family business returns is not chaotic, whilst volatility of market index is chaotic. These results may help understanding irregularities patterns in Moroccan family business stock returns and volatility, and how they are different from market dynamics.

  9. Earnings quality measures and excess returns: A case study of Tehran Stock Exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hassan Hemmati

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an empirical investigation to study the relationship between earning quality measure and excess returns on selected firms trading on Tehran Stock Exchange. The purpose of this study is to find the relative advantage of income figures reported in formal financial statements. The study uses hedge return, six accounting ratios and three market ratios and performs the study over the period of 2001-2011 using 56 firms whose shares were traded on Tehran Stock Exchange. The proposed study uses regression analysis as well as structural equation modeling. The results of this study indicate that market based figures are more influencing than accounting based ratios on hedge return. In other words, hedge return for persistency index was more predictable than smoothness and abnormal accruals. However, on the contrary to what we expected, hedge return for accruals was not more than other accounting based figures.

  10. Return to work after thoracic organ transplantation in a clinically-stable population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petrucci, Lucia; Ricotti, Susanna; Michelini, Ilaria; Vitulo, Patrizio; Oggionni, Tiberio; Cascina, Alessandro; D'Armini, Andrea M; Goggi, Claudio; Campana, Carlo; Viganò, Mario; Dalla-Toffola, Elena; Tinelli, Carmine; Klersy, Catherine

    2007-11-01

    To evaluate the rate of return to work after transplantation and its determinants in a clinically-stable population of patients transplanted and followed-up at a single institution in Italy. 151 thoracic organ transplant recipients (72 lung, 79 heart) were examined. Patients were asked about daily activities, level of education, employment and clinical condition. A six-minute walking test was performed with measurement of dyspnoea using the Borg scale. Quality of Life was evaluated with the SF-36 and GHQ questionnaires. Before transplantation 131 patients (87%), (70 heart and 61 lung) worked. After transplantation, 51 patients (39%) went back to work and 3 more started working. We found that younger age, a better quality of life (mainly in the mental domain), having had an occupation previously (particularly as an entrepreneur/freelancer), and having been off work for less than 24 months, were independent predictors of return to work. Considering their good, objective and subjective, functional status, some patients who could have returned to work, chose not to. Identifying factors which affect return to work might help health professionals to adopt the best course of treatment and psychological support in order to fulfil this goal; however, return to work should not be considered as the only expression of a patient's real psychophysical condition.

  11. Measuring the Effect of Exchange Rate Movements on Stock Market Returns Volatility: GARCH Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdelkadir BESSEBA

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to investigate the dynamic links between exchange rate fluctuations and stock market return volatility. For this purpose, we have employed a Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity model (GARCH model. Stock market returns sensitivities are found to be stronger for exchange rates, implying that exchange rate change plays an important role in determining the dynamics of the stock market returns.

  12. Experiences of occupational therapists returning to work after maternity leave.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parcsi, Lisa; Curtin, Michael

    2013-08-01

    Returning to work after maternity leave can be a challenging, anxious and fraught experience for women, and has been portrayed in the literature as a generally negative experience. Interestingly, although occupational therapists were predominantly women, no research was found focussing on their experiences of returning to work after maternity leave. The aim of this research was to gain an insight into occupational therapists' experiences of returning to work following maternity leave. Principles of interpretive phenomenological analysis were used to explore the individual experiences of six Australian occupational therapists returning to work after a period of maternity leave. Individual semi-structured interviews lasting up to 90 minutes were conducted. Interviews were audio-recorded, transcribed and then analysed. Two major themes emerged from the analysis of interviews: compromise and feeling valued. The experience of returning to work was a process of compromise in which women found strategies to cope with their changing roles and demands, to find a balance between home and work life. The women wanted to feel valued by their managers and co-workers, as this enabled them to feel comfortable and confident with some of the compromises they made. Occupational therapists returning to work after maternity leave will make compromises so that they can balance their home and work life. Occupational therapists value managers and co-workers who understand the compromises women make when returning to work following maternity leave and who create a supportive workplace that acknowledges and values their contribution. © 2013 Occupational Therapy Australia.

  13. Return to contact sports following infectious mononucleosis: the role of serial ultrasonography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Connor, Tony E; Skinner, Liam J; Kiely, Patrick; Fenton, John E

    2011-08-01

    Splenic rupture is a rare but potentially fatal complication of infectious mononucleosis. Athletes returning to contact sports following infectious mononucleosis are at potential risk of splenic rupture secondary to abdominal trauma. No clear consensus exists as to when it is safe to allow these athletes to return to contact sports. Suggested periods of abstinence have ranged from 2 weeks to 6 months. We outline our experiences with the use of abdominal ultrasonography at 1 month after the diagnosis of infectious mononucleosis as a means of determining when athletes can safely return to contact sports. Our study group was made up of 19 such patients (mean age: 16.7 yr). We found that 16 of these patients (84%) had normal splenic dimensions on ultrasonography 1 month after diagnosis, and they were therefore allowed to return to contact sports. While the remaining 3 patients had an enlarged spleen at 1 month, their splenic dimensions had all returned to normal when ultrasonographic examination was repeated at 2 months postdiagnosis. We conclude that serial abdominal ultrasonography allows for informed decision making in determining when athletes can safely return to contact sports following infectious mononucleosis.

  14. The log-linear return approximation, bubbles, and predictability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Engsted, Tom; Pedersen, Thomas Quistgaard; Tanggaard, Carsten

    We study in detail the log-linear return approximation introduced by Campbell and Shiller (1988a). First, we derive an upper bound for the mean approximation error, given stationarity of the log dividendprice ratio. Next, we simulate various rational bubbles which have explosive conditional expec...

  15. Real exchange rate persistence and the excess return puzzle

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Juselius, Katarina; Assenmacher, Katrin

    2017-01-01

    The PPP puzzle refers to the wide swings of nominal exchange rates around their long-run equilibrium values whereas the excess return puzzle represents the persistent deviation of the domestic-foreign interest rate differential from the expected change in the nominal exchange rate. Using the I(2......) cointegrated VAR model, much of the excess return puzzle disappears when an uncertainty premium in the foreign exchange market, proxied by the persistent PPP gap, is introduced. Self-reinforcing feedback mechanisms seem to cause the persistence in the Swiss-US parity conditions. These results support imperfect...

  16. End-of-the-year economic growth and time-varying expected returns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Stig V.; Rangvid, Jesper

    2015-01-01

    We show that macroeconomic growth at the end of the year (fourth quarter or December) strongly influences expected returns on risky financial assets, whereas economic growth during the rest of the year does not. We find this pattern for many different asset classes, across different time periods......, and for US and international data. We also show that movements in the surplus consumption ratio of Campbell and Cochrane (1999) , a theoretically well-founded measure of time-varying risk aversion linked to macroeconomic growth, influence expected returns stronger during the fourth quarter than the other...

  17. RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN STOCK MARKET RETURNS AND EXCHANGERATES IN EMERGING STOCK MARKETS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M.N. Arshad

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract-This paper aims to study the relationship between stock market returns and exchange rates in emerging stock markets including Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia and Philippines. The data is taken from January 2003 to December 2012 using weekly closing indices and separated in two periods; before (2003-2007 and second, after (2008-2012 the financial crisis of 2008. Johansen-Juselius (JJ. Granger causality tests show that unidirectional causality exists between the stock market returns and exchange rates for Thailand before the financial crisis, whilst, for Indonesia and Singapore, the unidirectional causality between the two variables is detected in the period after the financial crisis. Error Correction Model (ECM indicates the existence of long run causality between the two variables for Philippines. This study also finds that most of the emerging stock markets are informationally inefficient.

  18. Immediate extinction promotes the return of fear.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merz, Christian J; Hamacher-Dang, Tanja C; Wolf, Oliver T

    2016-05-01

    Accumulating evidence indicates that immediate extinction is less effective than delayed extinction in attenuating the return of fear. This line of fear conditioning research impacts the proposed onset of psychological interventions after threatening situations. In the present study, forty healthy men were investigated in a differential fear conditioning paradigm with fear acquisition in context A, extinction in context B, followed by retrieval testing in both contexts 24h later to test fear renewal. Differently coloured lights served as conditioned stimuli (CS): two CS (CS+) were paired with an electrical stimulation that served as unconditioned stimulus, the third CS was never paired (CS-). Extinction took place immediately after fear acquisition or 24h later. One CS+ was extinguished whereas the second CS+ remained unextinguished to control for different time intervals between fear acquisition and retrieval testing. Immediate extinction led to larger skin conductance responses during fear retrieval to both the extinguished and unextinguished CS relative to the CS-, indicating a stronger return of fear compared to delayed extinction. Taken together, immediate extinction is less potent than delayed extinction and is associated with a stronger renewal effect. Thus, the time-point of psychological interventions relative to the offset of threatening situations needs to be carefully considered to prevent relapses. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Return to Play After Forearm and Hand Injuries in the National Basketball Association.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morse, Kyle W; Hearns, Krystle A; Carlson, Michelle Gerwin

    2017-02-01

    Hand injuries can result in significant time away from competition for professional basketball players. Time to return to play after hand injuries in elite athletes has not been well described. To report the return to play from metacarpal fractures, phalangeal fractures, and thumb ligament tears in National Basketball Association (NBA) players over a 5-year period. Descriptive epidemiology study. The NBA transaction report was analyzed from January 2009 to May 2014. Players were identified if they were added to the inactive list (IL), missed games due to their injury, or underwent surgery as a result of hand injury. Number of games missed due to injury, days spent on the IL, and age at injury were calculated by injury type and location. One hundred thirty-seven injuries were identified: 39 injuries to the hand and 98 injuries to the finger. Three major injury patterns were identified and analyzed: metacarpal fractures (n = 26), phalangeal fractures (n = 33), and thumb ligament tears (n = 9). The type of injury sustained affected return to play ( P basketball players can lead to prolonged periods of time away from competition, especially after surgery. This study provides guidelines on expected return to play in the NBA after these common hand injuries.

  20. Modeling the distribution of extreme share return in Malaysia using Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasan, Husna; Radi, Noor Fadhilah Ahmad; Kassim, Suraiya

    2012-05-01

    Extreme share return in Malaysia is studied. The monthly, quarterly, half yearly and yearly maximum returns are fitted to the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. The Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Phillips Perron (PP) tests are performed to test for stationarity, while Mann-Kendall (MK) test is for the presence of monotonic trend. Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) is used to estimate the parameter while L-moments estimate (LMOM) is used to initialize the MLE optimization routine for the stationary model. Likelihood ratio test is performed to determine the best model. Sherman's goodness of fit test is used to assess the quality of convergence of the GEV distribution by these monthly, quarterly, half yearly and yearly maximum. Returns levels are then estimated for prediction and planning purposes. The results show all maximum returns for all selection periods are stationary. The Mann-Kendall test indicates the existence of trend. Thus, we ought to model for non-stationary model too. Model 2, where the location parameter is increasing with time is the best for all selection intervals. Sherman's goodness of fit test shows that monthly, quarterly, half yearly and yearly maximum converge to the GEV distribution. From the results, it seems reasonable to conclude that yearly maximum is better for the convergence to the GEV distribution especially if longer records are available. Return level estimates, which is the return level (in this study return amount) that is expected to be exceeded, an average, once every t time periods starts to appear in the confidence interval of T = 50 for quarterly, half yearly and yearly maximum.

  1. An analysis of security price risk and return among publicly traded pharmacy corporations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilligan, Adrienne M; Skrepnek, Grant H

    2013-01-01

    Community pharmacies have been subject to intense and increasing competition in the past several decades. To determine the security price risk and rate of return of publicly traded pharmacy corporations present on the major U.S. stock exchanges from 1930 to 2009. The Center of Research in Security Prices (CRSP) database was used to examine monthly security-level stock market prices in this observational retrospective study. The primary outcome of interest was the equity risk premium, with analyses focusing upon financial metrics associated with risk and return based upon modern portfolio theory (MPT) including: abnormal returns (i.e., alpha), volatility (i.e., beta), and percentage of returns explained (i.e., adjusted R(2)). Three equilibrium models were estimated using random-effects generalized least squares (GLS): 1) the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM); 2) Fama-French Three-Factor Model; and 3) Carhart Four-Factor Model. Seventy-five companies were examined from 1930 to 2009, with overall adjusted R(2) values ranging from 0.13 with the CAPM to 0.16 with the Four-Factor model. Alpha was not significant within any of the equilibrium models across the entire 80-year time period, though was found from 1999 to 2009 in the Three- and Four-Factor models to be associated with a large, significant, and negative risk-adjusted abnormal returns of -33.84%. Volatility varied across specific time periods based upon the financial model employed. This investigation of risk and return within publicly listed pharmacy corporations from 1930 to 2009 found that substantial losses were incurred particularly from 1999 to 2009, with risk-adjusted security valuations decreasing by one-third. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. SECTORAL RISK AND RETURN FOR COMPANIES IN ROMANIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anis Cecilia

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available probability that cash flows or return will vary from expectations. Standard corporate finance theory supposes that a company chooses a capital structure that maximizes company value. A fundamental idea in finance is the relationship between risk and return. The greater the amount of risk that an investor is willing to take on, the greater the potential return. The reason for this is that investors need to be compensated for taking on additional risk. Why put capital at significant risk for a return that is no higher than the return on government bonds? Or expect higher than averages returns from low-risk activities? It is impossible to separate measuring the performance of a company from the risks that the management takes to achieve it.In most aspects of company operations, risk assessment plays a different but equally important, role. It is an integral part of informed decision taking in achieving performance. Risk assessment is involved from the highest level in strategic choices about what activities to undertake, what assets to buy or what markets to serve all the way to detailed operational decisions about whether to accept payment in foreign currencies and the adequacy of safety measures in the workplace. It plays a part whether or not an organization is aware of managing risk and many managers feel that their instinct and judgment are enough – a behavior risk. The danger is that this leaves company risk unplanned and unmanaged. This paper proposes a framework where we realized a study cases: we test if return on assets and return on equity has influence on the risk, both on long and short term. For this purposes, we conduct an empirical research that covers 59 selected companies traded at the Bucharest Stock Exchange within the time period 1999-2010. For this study our results reveal that dynamic global risk can be associated to a low intensity with total assets performance of the company’s. Investments efficiency and the

  3. What Persons with Chronic Health Conditions Need to Maintain or Return to Work-Results of an Online-Survey in Seven European Countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foitzek, Nicole; Ávila, Carolina C; Ivandic, Ivana; Bitenc, Črtomir; Cabello, Maria; Gruber, Sonja; Leonardi, Matilde; Muñoz-Murillo, Amalia; Scaratti, Chiara; Tobiasz-Adamczyk, Beata; Vlachou, Anastasia; Esteban, Eva; Sabariego, Carla; Coenen, Michaela

    2018-03-26

    Chronic health conditions represent the major share of the disease burden in Europe and have a significant impact on work. This study aims to: (1) identify factors that have a negative or positive impact on the work lives of persons with chronic health conditions; (2) explore the needs of these persons to maintain a job or return to work and (3) compare these results with respect to these persons' occupational status. An online survey was performed in seven European countries. Open-ended survey questions were analyzed using qualitative methods. In total, 487 participants with six chronic health conditions participated. The majority of participants named work-related aspects (such as career development, stress at the workplace, work structure and schedule as well as workload), support of others and attitudes of others as being the factors positively and negatively impact their work lives the most. Our study shed light on the importance of changing the attitudes of supervisors and co-workers to counteract stigmatization of persons with chronic health conditions in the workplace. In conclusion, this study provides a basis for developing new strategies of integration and reintegration at work for persons with chronic health conditions in European countries.

  4. Changing conditions on wilderness campsites: Seven case studies of trends over 13 to 32 years

    Science.gov (United States)

    David N. Cole

    2013-01-01

    This report brings together seven case studies of trends in the number and condition of wilderness campsites over periods ranging from 13 to 32 years. Case examples come from five mountainous wilderness areas in the western United States: Sequoia-Kings Canyon Wilderness in California, the Eagle Cap Wilderness in Oregon, the Frank Church-River of No Return Wilderness in...

  5. A Comparative Study of CAPM and Seven Factors Risk Adjusted Return Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Madiha Riaz Bhatti

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This study is a comparison and contrast of the predictive powers of two asset pricing models: CAPM and seven factor risk-return adjusted model, to explain the cross section of stock rate of returns in the financial sector listed at Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE. To test the models daily returns from January 2013 to February 2014 have been taken and the excess returns of portfolios are regressed on explanatory variables. The results of the tested models indicate that the models are valid and applicable in the financial market of Pakistan during the period under study, as the intercepts are not significantly different from zero. It is consequently established from the findings that all the explanatory variables explain the stock returns in the financial sector of KSE. In addition, the results of this study show that addition of more explanatory variables to the single factor CAPM results in reasonably high values of R2. These results provide substantial support to fund managers, investors and financial analysts in making investment decisions.

  6. DAMPAK PEMODERASIAN KOMPONEN ARUS KAS TERHADAP HUBUNGAN LABA AKUNTANSI DENGAN RETURN SAHAM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hendy Hermawan

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Accurate information regarding listed companies is crucial to minimize investment risk. This research aims to examine the effect of accounting income on stock return, and the effect of cash flow from operation, cash flow from investment, and cash flow from financing activities respectively as moderating variables on the relationship between accounting income and stock return of manufacturer listed on the Jakarta Stock Exchange. There were 161 manufacturing companies listed during 2001 to 2005, and 39 of them are selected as sample research using purposive sampling method. With 5 year research period, there are 195 observations done. Data then are analyzed using multiple linear regressions. Results show that accounting income affect stock return significantly, which is shown by greater value of t count compare to t table. While cash flow from operation, investment, and financing activities are not able to moderate relationship between accounting income and stock return

  7. The Log-Linear Return Approximation, Bubbles, and Predictability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Engsted, Tom; Pedersen, Thomas Quistgaard; Tanggaard, Carsten

    2012-01-01

    We study in detail the log-linear return approximation introduced by Campbell and Shiller (1988a). First, we derive an upper bound for the mean approximation error, given stationarity of the log dividend-price ratio. Next, we simulate various rational bubbles which have explosive conditional expe...

  8. Measuring viability of pacs during reform period in Maharashtra: A case study

    OpenAIRE

    Shah, Deepak

    2007-01-01

    The study showed a reduction in the operational efficiency of the selected PACS during the post-economic reform period as against the pre-economic reform period. The operational efficiency was measured in respect of various liquidity ratio, profitability ratios and financial leverage ratios. Not only the selected societies showed a decline in their current ratio, rate of return on assets, return on owner’s equity and Marginal Efficiency of Capital (MEC) but also showed higher dependency on le...

  9. Virus isolation for diagnosing dengue virus infections in returning travelers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Teichmann, D.; Göbels, K.; Niedrig, M.; Sim-Brandenburg, J.-W.; Làge-Stehr, J.; Grobusch, M. P.

    2003-01-01

    Dengue fever is recognized as one of the most frequent imported acute febrile illnesses affecting European tourists returning from the tropics. In order to assess the value of virus isolation for the diagnosis of dengue fever, 70 cases of dengue fever confirmed in German travelers during the period

  10. Macroeconomic Variables, International Islamic Indices, and The Return Volatility in Jakarta Islamic Index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yoghi Citra Pratama

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available According to understand the behavior of Islamic equity markets the primary objective of this research is to analyze the effect of macroeconomic indicators and International Islamic Index on return volatility of Jakarta Islamic Index. The analysis method used in this study is AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroscedastic-Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (ARCH-GARCH. The result of this research showed that all variables, i.e., BI rate, inflation rate, IDR-USD exchange rate, DJIUS index, DJIUK index, FTSJP index and FTSMY index have a simultaneously significant impact on return volatility of JII. While t-test results show that BI rate, IDR-USD exchange rate, DJIUK index and FTSMY index have a substantial effect on return volatility of JII.DOI: 10.15408/aiq.v10i1.5550

  11. Internal migration and household living conditions in Ethiopia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Blessing Uchenna Mberu

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available Using the 1998 Migration, Gender and Health Survey in Five Regions of Ethiopia, and multivariate regression techniques, this paper examines the relationship between internal migration and household living conditions. The analysis finds significant living condition advantage of permanent and temporary migrants over non-migrants. These advantages are primarily linked to migration selectivity by education and non-agricultural income. Once the independent effects of these variables are controlled, no statistical significant independent association exists between migration status and living conditions. Government policies of resettlement in the 1980s and ethnic federalism of the 1990s may have engendered stress migration and exacerbated poor living outcomes for return migrants. The resort to migration and/or resettlement as an individual or government policy response to periodic unfavorable conditions in places of origin is not strongly supported by this analysis as the key to improved living conditions. Promoting higher education and opportunities for employment outside the agricultural sector are more likely to yield improved living conditions in Ethiopia.

  12. Evidence of Large Fluctuations of Stock Return and Financial Crises from Turkey: Using Wavelet Coherency and Varma Modeling to Forecast Stock Return

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oygur, Tunc; Unal, Gazanfer

    Shocks, jumps, booms and busts are typical large fluctuation markers which appear in crisis. Models and leading indicators vary according to crisis type in spite of the fact that there are a lot of different models and leading indicators in literature to determine structure of crisis. In this paper, we investigate structure of dynamic correlation of stock return, interest rate, exchange rate and trade balance differences in crisis periods in Turkey over the period between October 1990 and March 2015 by applying wavelet coherency methodologies to determine nature of crises. The time period includes the Turkeys currency and banking crises; US sub-prime mortgage crisis and the European sovereign debt crisis occurred in 1994, 2001, 2008 and 2009, respectively. Empirical results showed that stock return, interest rate, exchange rate and trade balance differences are significantly linked during the financial crises in Turkey. The cross wavelet power, the wavelet coherency, the multiple wavelet coherency and the quadruple wavelet coherency methodologies have been used to examine structure of dynamic correlation. Moreover, in consequence of quadruple and multiple wavelet coherence, strongly correlated large scales indicate linear behavior and, hence VARMA (vector autoregressive moving average) gives better fitting and forecasting performance. In addition, increasing the dimensions of the model for strongly correlated scales leads to more accurate results compared to scalar counterparts.

  13. Efflux Performance of Submicron Particles in Packed Bed under Periodic Pressure Conditions; Shuki atsuho ni yoru juten sonai sabumikuron biryushi no ryushutsu tokusei

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ping, Z; Iritani, E; Murase, T [Nagaya Univ. Nagoya (Japan). Department of Chemical Engineering

    1997-09-01

    Permeation experiments of ultrapure water were conducted under periodic pressure conditions using a packed bed obtained by dispersing submicron particles of polymethyl methacrylate (PMMA) uniformly into a packed bed of particles of White Alundum. It is clearly demonstrated that washing performance under periodic pressure conditions where the permeation pressure is applied periodically is improved dramatically, compared with that under constant pressure conditions. It is also shown that the effect of periodic pressure operation is especially noticeable in the initial stage of the pressurizing period, and that a pressurizing time smaller than 2 min is very effective under conditions examined in this study. 4 figs.

  14. Factors Affecting the Return Stock Company in Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX LQ45 in Years 2012-2015

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fangki A. Sorongan

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available This research aimed to determine the effect of partially and jointly independent variable of Debt to Equity Ratio (DER, Return on Equity (ROA, Return on Equity (ROE, and Net Profit Margin (NPM against the dependent variable on the stock return. Objects of this research were companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (BEI LQ45 continuously for four years in the period 2012-2015. Companies that qualify for this research were 28 companies. Based on this research, the conclusions indicate that all four independent variables; Debt to Equity Ratio (DER, Return on Equity (ROA, Return on Equity (ROE, and Net Profit Margin (NPM, either jointly or partially give the significant effect on return stock.

  15. The 'successful' return

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olwig, Karen Fog

    2012-01-01

    Research on female migrant caregivers has tended to focus upon the emotional and social problems they encounter working abroad, given women’s traditional role as caregivers for their own families. This article analyses how Caribbean women who have returned after a period abroad as domestic workers...... inscribe their migration experiences within the gendered narrative of the good relative who migrates to help the family left behind and therefore deserves social recognition in the community of origin. It argues that this narrative allows the women to both affirm and reinterpret local family and gender...... roles within the context of migration. This analysis points to the close connection between narrative structures, accounts of migration experiences, and self-presentations and suggests that narratives about family and gender roles not only reflect people’s lives, but are also a malleable resource...

  16. The Influence of the Endogenous and Exogenous Factors on Credit Institutions’ Return on Equity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baltes Nicolae

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available The research’s purpose is to study the credit institutions’ performance, from the shareholders’ point of view, through return on equity (ROE. It aims to identify a dependency relationship between return on equity (ROE and endogenous factors (the growth rate of credit portfolio, the growth rate provisions, the solvency ratio, on the one hand and, on the other hand between ROE and the exogenous ones (GDP and inflation rate. The research was done over an horizon of 10 years (2004-2013 on the evolution of the return on equity indicator of two credit institutions listed on Bucharest Stock Exchange (Carpathian Commercial Bank SA and Banca Transilvania SA, highlights their vulnerability to economic conditions. The results obtained indicates, that in both credit institutions, the variation of return on capital is determined in a significant proportion by intern factors and it is conditioned in a insignificant share by the exogenous factors

  17. Strong influence of periodic boundary conditions on lateral diffusion in lipid bilayer membranes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Camley, Brian A. [Center for Theoretical Biological Physics and Department of Physics, University of California, San Diego, California 92093 (United States); Department of Physics, University of California, Santa Barbara, California 93106 (United States); Lerner, Michael G. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Earlham College, Richmond, Indiana 47374 (United States); Laboratory of Computational Biology, National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland 20892 (United States); Pastor, Richard W. [Laboratory of Computational Biology, National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland 20892 (United States); Brown, Frank L. H. [Department of Physics, University of California, Santa Barbara, California 93106 (United States); Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry, University of California, Santa Barbara, California 93106 (United States)

    2015-12-28

    The Saffman-Delbrück hydrodynamic model for lipid-bilayer membranes is modified to account for the periodic boundary conditions commonly imposed in molecular simulations. Predicted lateral diffusion coefficients for membrane-embedded solid bodies are sensitive to box shape and converge slowly to the limit of infinite box size, raising serious doubts for the prospects of using detailed simulations to accurately predict membrane-protein diffusivities and related transport properties. Estimates for the relative error associated with periodic boundary artifacts are 50% and higher for fully atomistic models in currently feasible simulation boxes. MARTINI simulations of LacY membrane protein diffusion and LacY dimer diffusion in DPPC membranes and lipid diffusion in pure DPPC bilayers support the underlying hydrodynamic model.

  18. Strong influence of periodic boundary conditions on lateral diffusion in lipid bilayer membranes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Camley, Brian A.; Lerner, Michael G.; Pastor, Richard W.; Brown, Frank L. H.

    2015-01-01

    The Saffman-Delbrück hydrodynamic model for lipid-bilayer membranes is modified to account for the periodic boundary conditions commonly imposed in molecular simulations. Predicted lateral diffusion coefficients for membrane-embedded solid bodies are sensitive to box shape and converge slowly to the limit of infinite box size, raising serious doubts for the prospects of using detailed simulations to accurately predict membrane-protein diffusivities and related transport properties. Estimates for the relative error associated with periodic boundary artifacts are 50% and higher for fully atomistic models in currently feasible simulation boxes. MARTINI simulations of LacY membrane protein diffusion and LacY dimer diffusion in DPPC membranes and lipid diffusion in pure DPPC bilayers support the underlying hydrodynamic model

  19. Working Capital Management Policies and Returns of Listed Manufacturing Firms in Ghana

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam Anokye M.

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available This study sought to determine the effects aggressive/conservative current asset investment and financing policies have on firms′ return for six manufacturing firms listed at Ghana Stock Exchange for a period of 2000-2013. Data were obtained from the annual reports of the firms and the Ghana Stock Exchange. The study adopted longitudinal explanatory non-experimental research design applied to dynamic panel ARDL framework in analyzing the data. The results revealed that the current asset investment and financing policies have highly significant positive effects on returns to equity holders in the long-run. The empirical evidence suggests that conservative current asset investment policies increase firms return while conservative financing policies yields negative returns. The study therefore would enable finance managers to be able to fashion out the appropriate working capital management policies. A firm pursuing conservative current asset investment policy should balance it with aggressive current asset financing policy in order to enhance profitability and create value for their investors.

  20. Market Timing : A Decomposition of Mutual Fund Returns

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Swinkels, L.A.P.; van der Sluis, P.J.; Verbeek, M.J.C.M.

    2003-01-01

    We decompose the conditional expected mutual fund return in ve parts.Two parts, selectivity and expert market timing, can be attributed to manager skill, and three to variation in market exposure that can be achieved by private investors as well.The dynamic model that we use to estimate the relative

  1. Volatility modeling of asset returns | Babayemi | International Journal ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This research was carried out using the daily close share price of Nestle Nigeria Plc to identify and model its volatility of returns in the Nigerian Stock Exchange Market. The result of the study showed that basic Generalized Conditionally Heteroskedastic Model (GARCH (1,1)) model (with Gaussian Error Assumptions) best ...

  2. Modeling the Lag Period and Exponential Growth of Listeria monocytogenes under Conditions of Fluctuating Temperature and Water Activity Values▿

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muñoz-Cuevas, Marina; Fernández, Pablo S.; George, Susan; Pin, Carmen

    2010-01-01

    The dynamic model for the growth of a bacterial population described by Baranyi and Roberts (J. Baranyi and T. A. Roberts, Int. J. Food Microbiol. 23:277-294, 1994) was applied to model the lag period and exponential growth of Listeria monocytogenes under conditions of fluctuating temperature and water activity (aw) values. To model the duration of the lag phase, the dependence of the parameter h0, which quantifies the amount of work done during the lag period, on the previous and current environmental conditions was determined experimentally. This parameter depended not only on the magnitude of the change between the previous and current environmental conditions but also on the current growth conditions. In an exponentially growing population, any change in the environment requiring a certain amount of work to adapt to the new conditions initiated a lag period that lasted until that work was finished. Observations for several scenarios in which exponential growth was halted by a sudden change in the temperature and/or aw were in good agreement with predictions. When a population already in a lag period was subjected to environmental fluctuations, the system was reset with a new lag phase. The work to be done during the new lag phase was estimated to be the workload due to the environmental change plus the unfinished workload from the uncompleted previous lag phase. PMID:20208022

  3. Modeling the lag period and exponential growth of Listeria monocytogenes under conditions of fluctuating temperature and water activity values.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muñoz-Cuevas, Marina; Fernández, Pablo S; George, Susan; Pin, Carmen

    2010-05-01

    The dynamic model for the growth of a bacterial population described by Baranyi and Roberts (J. Baranyi and T. A. Roberts, Int. J. Food Microbiol. 23:277-294, 1994) was applied to model the lag period and exponential growth of Listeria monocytogenes under conditions of fluctuating temperature and water activity (a(w)) values. To model the duration of the lag phase, the dependence of the parameter h(0), which quantifies the amount of work done during the lag period, on the previous and current environmental conditions was determined experimentally. This parameter depended not only on the magnitude of the change between the previous and current environmental conditions but also on the current growth conditions. In an exponentially growing population, any change in the environment requiring a certain amount of work to adapt to the new conditions initiated a lag period that lasted until that work was finished. Observations for several scenarios in which exponential growth was halted by a sudden change in the temperature and/or a(w) were in good agreement with predictions. When a population already in a lag period was subjected to environmental fluctuations, the system was reset with a new lag phase. The work to be done during the new lag phase was estimated to be the workload due to the environmental change plus the unfinished workload from the uncompleted previous lag phase.

  4. Risk of portfolio with simulated returns based on copula model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Razak, Ruzanna Ab; Ismail, Noriszura

    2015-02-01

    The commonly used tool for measuring risk of a portfolio with equally weighted stocks is variance-covariance method. Under extreme circumstances, this method leads to significant underestimation of actual risk due to its multivariate normality assumption of the joint distribution of stocks. The purpose of this research is to compare the actual risk of portfolio with the simulated risk of portfolio in which the joint distribution of two return series is predetermined. The data used is daily stock prices from the ASEAN market for the period January 2000 to December 2012. The copula approach is applied to capture the time varying dependence among the return series. The results shows that the chosen copula families are not suitable to present the dependence structures of each bivariate returns. Exception for the Philippines-Thailand pair where by t copula distribution appears to be the appropriate choice to depict its dependence. Assuming that the t copula distribution is the joint distribution of each paired series, simulated returns is generated and value-at-risk (VaR) is then applied to evaluate the risk of each portfolio consisting of two simulated return series. The VaR estimates was found to be symmetrical due to the simulation of returns via elliptical copula-GARCH approach. By comparison, it is found that the actual risks are underestimated for all pairs of portfolios except for Philippines-Thailand. This study was able to show that disregard of the non-normal dependence structure of two series will result underestimation of actual risk of the portfolio.

  5. Planetary Protection for LIFE-Sample Return from Enceladus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsou, Peter; Yano, Hajime; Takano, Yoshinori; McKay, David; Takai, Ken; Anbar, Ariel; Baross, J.

    ]. Current Plan: At the 1st flyby of Enceladus at high plume altitude (~150 km), we would survey the status of the plume and jets by making in situ measurements of the gas and dust densities, compositions, and velocities. We would also collect solid ice/volatile samples based upon prior ground planning. The 2nd and final flyby (determined via optimal trajectory from the 1st flyby) will be conducted at low altitude (~20 km), and would perform in situ measurements and collect solid ice and volatile samples. During the 5 year return cruise, we would maintain the samples in their captured state (frozen) under desiccating conditions of low temperature and pressure. After a direct Earth reentry, we would transport the frozen samples from the sample return capsule into a sealed sample transport container, which would then be transported to a higher Biosafety Level (BSL) facility from JAMSTEC (Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology) for sample return capsule de-integration and sample distribution. Planetary Protection: Several options for sample return have been conceived and some even demonstrated on previous flight missions (STARDUST, Genesis and Hayabusa). To date, a flight qualified sample containment system does not exist in the US, and it would be cost prohibitive to flight-qualify such a system for use by LIFE under a Discovery Program. Harsh sterilization of the samples would destroy valuable molecular information, defeating the very purpose of returning samples to assess the habitability of Enceladus. The LIFE team has found a viable approach by teaming with JAXA/ISAS. Their Hayabusa II sample containment is a third generation device that can be further improved to meet these NASA and COSPAR planetary protection requirements in an Integrated Sample Subsystem for LIFE. Another aspect of LIFE is the initial de-integration and certification of the returned samples in a higher BSL facility. JAMSTEC is the world’s leading oceanography organization. They are

  6. Returns to nursing education: rural and nonrural practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, S; Straub, L

    1997-01-01

    This study uses data from a national sample of registered nurses to compare earnings of nurses in rural and nonrural practice. The comparisons, conditioned by the nurses' education level, are analogous to the concept of "returns to human capital investment" used in labor economics. A general linear model is applied within a framework of labor economics analysis. Results show that nurses with more education receive less for their investment if they practice in rural areas. Work experience and employment setting are also related to lower annualized earnings for rural practice. One exception to the otherwise consistent findings is that returns to advanced practice nursing are higher in rural areas. Results and policy implications are discussed.

  7. INDONESIA SHARI'AH COMPLIANCE STOCK RETURN BEHAVIOUR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Helma Malini

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to measures the behaviour of Indonesia Shari'ah compliance stock return. The measurement of return behaviour toward volatility will proved the capability of Indonesia Shari'ah compliance toward volatility that happened in Indonesia during the period of observation. Investing in Shari'ah compliance is quite different than investing in conventional stock which followed the capital market set of rules and law, Shari'ah compliance follows not only the capital market set of laws and but also the Islamic principles of principles. Most of the previous studies examine issues related to the conventional stocks and market. The present study take one step further by investigating issue related to Shari'ah compliance instrument. In the case of Shari'ah stock price in Indonesia, the dynamics volatility of the stock price can be minimized by taking an integrated screening process to the listed company, as precautions steps toward volatility

  8. What Persons with Chronic Health Conditions Need to Maintain or Return to Work—Results of an Online-Survey in Seven European Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicole Foitzek

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Chronic health conditions represent the major share of the disease burden in Europe and have a significant impact on work. This study aims to: (1 identify factors that have a negative or positive impact on the work lives of persons with chronic health conditions; (2 explore the needs of these persons to maintain a job or return to work and (3 compare these results with respect to these persons’ occupational status. An online survey was performed in seven European countries. Open-ended survey questions were analyzed using qualitative methods. In total, 487 participants with six chronic health conditions participated. The majority of participants named work-related aspects (such as career development, stress at the workplace, work structure and schedule as well as workload, support of others and attitudes of others as being the factors positively and negatively impact their work lives the most. Our study shed light on the importance of changing the attitudes of supervisors and co-workers to counteract stigmatization of persons with chronic health conditions in the workplace. In conclusion, this study provides a basis for developing new strategies of integration and reintegration at work for persons with chronic health conditions in European countries.

  9. Reintegration of Pakistani return migrants from the Middle East in the domestic labour market.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arif, G M

    1998-01-01

    This study compared the unemployment rates among return migrants and nonmigrants and examined the reintegration pattern of returnees in the domestic labor market. The study utilized three data sets: the 1980 World Bank Survey of Return Migrant Households; the 1986 ILO/ARTEP Survey of Return Migrant Households; the 1991 Pakistan Integrated Household Survey. Findings showed that unemployment rates were much higher among return migrants than nonmigrants. Although this difference narrowed with the passage of time, even among those who returned to Pakistan at least 18 months prior to the surveys, more than 10% of workers were unemployed. The multivariate analysis further showed that returnees, irrespective of the period elapsed since their return, were more likely to be unemployed than nonmigrants. With respect to the reintegration pattern of return migrants, the study revealed that variables indicating their human capital, such as occupation and pre-migration and during-migration work experience, appear to have a greater influence on their post-return adjustment than the variables related to economic positions such as savings. The results also showed that the types of jobs unemployed returnees were looking for differed substantially from those held by employed return migrants. A possibility was that unemployed returnees could not save enough from their overseas earnings to become self-employed. Thus, provision of credit for self-employment seems to be the right way to accommodate these workers.

  10. What will it take for disease management to demonstrate a return on investment? New perspectives on an old theme.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linden, Ariel Linden

    2006-04-01

    Disease management programs are expected (and usually contractually required) to reduce total costs in the diseases they manage. To discuss the appropriateness of using utilization indexes in lieu of cost and the importance of reviewing utilization trends to determine whether sufficient opportunity exists for a program to be financially effective; and to conduct an analysis to determine the number of admissions that must be reduced for a program to achieve various levels of return on investment. Descriptive. Historical inpatient cost trends, discharges per 10,000 population, the mean length of stay, and emergency department visits per 10,000 population for acute myocardial infarction, congestive heart failure, asthma, and diabetes mellitus are presented. A "number-needed-to-decrease" analysis is performed to determine the number of admissions or emergency department visits that must be reduced to meet varying levels of return on investment. (1) Hospital days per 10,000 population for these conditions trended downward, while costs during the same period escalated. (2) Discharge and emergency department visit rates per 10,000 population were flat and low during the observation period, while the mean length of stay declined. Results of the number-needed-to-decrease analysis suggest that disease management programs will have to decrease admissions 10% to 30% to cover program fees alone. A review of historical utilization trends and a number-needed-to-decrease analysis should be conducted before disease management program implementation to determine whether sufficient opportunity exists to reduce utilization to levels that will ensure a positive return on investment.

  11. Influence of edge conditions on material ejection from periodic grooves in laser shock-loaded tin

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rességuier, T. de; Roland, C. [Institut PPRIME, UPR 3346, CNRS, ENSMA, Université de Poitiers, 1 ave. Clément Ader, 86961 Futuroscope Cedex (France); Prudhomme, G.; Lescoute, E.; Mercier, P. [CEA, DAM, DIF, 91297 Arpajon (France); Loison, D. [Institut de Physique de Rennes, CNRS, Université de Rennes 1, 35042 Rennes (France)

    2016-05-14

    In a material subjected to high dynamic compression, the breakout of a shock wave at a rough free surface can lead to the ejection of high velocity debris. Anticipating the ballistic properties of such debris is a key safety issue in many applications involving shock loading, including pyrotechnics and inertial confinement fusion experiments. In this paper, we use laser driven shocks to investigate particle ejection from calibrated grooves of micrometric dimensions and approximately sinusoidal profile in tin samples, with various boundary conditions at the groove edges, including single groove and periodic patterns. Fast transverse shadowgraphy provides ejection velocities after shock breakout. They are found to depend not only on the groove depth and wavelength, as predicted theoretically and already observed in the past, but also, unexpectedly, on the edge conditions, with a jet tip velocity significantly lower in the case of a single groove than behind a periodic pattern.

  12. Distribution of Depositors’ Return and The Income Smoothing Hypothesis by Malaysian Islamic Banks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zunaidah Sulong

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper aims to examine whether Malaysian Islamic banks carry out income smoothing with regards to their distribution of depositors’ return. The paper also examines the extent Malaysian Islamic banks engage earnings and capital management in their distribution of depositors’ return. This empirical study uses balanced panel data from 16 Malaysian Islamic banks, for the period 2008-2012. The regression model is estimated using random effects specifications. The findings indicate that the earnings before tax, zakat, and provision have a positive but insignificant effect on distribution of depositors’ return (DDR whilst the total capital before provision has a positive and significant effect on the DDR. These findings suggest that Islamic banks carry out income smoothing on the distribution of depositors’ return via capital management. Islamic banks also smooth their earnings through distribution of depositors’ return to avoid earnings troughs when earnings are poor. The findings shows prudence exercise among Malaysian Islamic banks with the objectives of mitigating displaced commercial risk (DCR, which involves massive withdrawal and bank runs risks.

  13. Periodic variations of atmospheric electric field on fair weather conditions at YBJ, Tibet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Bin; Zou, Dan; Chen, Ben Yuan; Zhang, Jin Ye; Xu, Guo Wang

    2013-05-01

    Observations of atmospheric electric field on fair weather conditions from the plateau station, YBJ, Tibet (90°31‧50″ E, 30°06‧38″ N), over the period from 2006 to 2011, are presented in this work. Its periodic modulations are analyzed in frequency-domain by Lomb-Scargle Periodogram method and in time-domain by folding method. The results show that the fair weather atmospheric electric field intensity is modulated weakly by annual cycle, solar diurnal cycle and its several harmonic components. The modulating amplitude of annual cycle is bigger than that of solar diurnal cycle. The annual minimum/maximum nearly coincides with spring/autumn equinox. The detailed spectrum analysis show that the secondary peaks (i.e. sidereal diurnal cycle and semi-sidereal diurnal cycle) nearly disappear along with their primary peaks when the primary signals are subtracted from electric field data sequence. The average daily variation curve exhibits dual-fluctuations, and has obviously seasonal dependence. The mean value is bigger in summer and autumn, but smaller in spring and winter. The daytime fluctuation is affected by the sunrise and sunset effect, the occurring time of which have a little shift with seasons. However, the nightly one has a great dependence on season conditions.

  14. The return to work discussion: a qualitative study of the line manager conversation about return to work and the development of an educational programme.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, Debbie; Allen, Joanna; Rhydderch, Melody; Aylward, Mansel

    2012-07-01

    To investigate the conversation between line manager and employee about return to work to inform the development of an online interactive educational programme for line managers to improve the effectiveness of their discussions. An inductive qualitative approach, using the principles of action research and motivational interviewing were adopted. The results informed the development of the educational programme for line managers. Middle grade line managers in a large public services employer in the UK. Four discussion groups were conducted over a period of 8 months. Line managers explored the challenges of the return to work interview, analysed their interactions with employees and constructed the content of an educational programme. Multiple methods were used to build engagement with participants, including video and role-play. Nine line managers were recruited across 3 business areas. Managers recognised that their conversations focused on the organisations' policies and procedures and the outcome, rather than the interaction. They recognised the strength of shifting style to shared decision-making and guidance rather than process and instruction. These communication strategies were depicted in the educational programme. The content and flow of the return to work discussion is of high importance and influences employee behaviour and return to work outcomes.

  15. PENERAPAN MODEL ARBITRAGE PRICING THEORY DENGAN PENDEKATAN VECTOR AUTOREGRESSION DALAM MENGESTIMASI EXPECTED RETURN SAHAM (Studi Kasus: Saham-Saham Kompas100 Periode 2010-2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    VIAN RISKA AYUNING TYAS

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT is an alternative model to estimate the price of securities based of arbitrage concept. In APT, the returns of securities are affected by several factors. This research is aimed to estimate the expected returns of securities using APT model and Vector Autoregressive model. There are ten stocks incorporated in Kompas100 index and four macroeconomic variables, these are inflation, exchange rates, the amountof circulate money (JUB, and theinterest rateof Bank Indonesia(SBI are applied in this research. The first step in using VAR is to test the stationary of the data using colerogram and the results indicate that all data are stationary. The second step is to select the optimal lag based on the smallest value of AIC. The Granger causality test shows that the LPKR stock is affected by the inflation and the exchange rate while the nine other stocks do not show the existence of the expected causality. The results of causality test are then estimated by the VAR models in order to obtain expected returnof macroeconomic factors. The expected return of macroeconomic factors obtained is used in the APT model, then the expected return stock LPKR is calculated. It shows that the expected return of LPKR is 3,340%

  16. PENERAPAN MODEL ARBITRAGE PRICING THEORY DENGAN PENDEKATAN VECTOR AUTOREGRESSION DALAM MENGESTIMASI EXPECTED RETURN SAHAM (Studi Kasus: Saham-Saham Kompas100 Periode 2010-2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    VIAN RISKA AYUNING TYAS

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available The Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT is an alternative model to estimate the price of securities based of arbitrage concept. In APT, the returns of securities are affected by several factors. This research is aimed to estimate the expected returns of securities using APT model and Vector Autoregressive model. There are ten stocks incorporated in Kompas100 index and four macroeconomic variables, these are inflation, exchange rates, the amountof circulate money (JUB, and theinterest rateof Bank Indonesia(SBI are applied in this research. The first step in using VAR is to test the stationary of the data using colerogram and the results indicate that all data are stationary. The second step is to select the optimal lag based on the smallest value of AIC. The Granger causality test shows that the LPKR stock is affected by the inflation and the exchange rate while the nine other stocks do not show the existence of the expected causality. The results of causality test are then estimated by the VAR models in order to obtain expected returnof macroeconomic factors. The expected return of macroeconomic factors obtained is used in the APT model, then the expected return stock LPKR is calculated. It shows that the expected return of LPKR is 3,340%

  17. Working after a stroke: survivors' experiences and perceptions of barriers to and facilitators of the return to paid employment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alaszewski, Andy; Alaszewski, Helen; Potter, Jonathan; Penhale, Bridget

    2007-12-30

    This paper examines respondents' relationship with work following a stroke and explores their experiences including the perceived barriers to and facilitators of a return to employment. Our qualitative study explored the experiences and recovery of 43 individuals under 60 years who had survived a stroke. Participants, who had experienced a first stroke less than three months before and who could engage in in-depth interviews, were recruited through three stroke services in South East England. Each participant was invited to take part in four interviews over an 18-month period and to complete a diary for one week each month during this period. At the time of their stroke a minority of our sample (12, 28% of the original sample) were not actively involved in the labour market and did not return to the work during the period that they were involved in the study. Of the 31 participants working at the time of the stroke, 13 had not returned to work during the period that they were involved in the study, six returned to work after three months and nine returned in under three months and in some cases virtually immediately after their stroke. The participants in our study all valued work and felt that working, especially in paid employment, was more desirable than not working. The participants who were not working at the time of their stroke or who had not returned to work during the period of the study also endorsed these views. However they felt that there were a variety of barriers and practical problems that prevented them working and in some cases had adjusted to a life without paid employment. Participants' relationship with work was influenced by barriers and facilitators. The positive valuations of work were modified by the specific context of stroke, for some participants work was a cause of stress and therefore potentially risky, for others it was a way of demonstrating recovery from stroke. The value and meaning varied between participants and this variation

  18. The Impact of Fund Attrition on Superannuation Returns

    OpenAIRE

    Drew, Michael E.; Stanford, Jon D.

    2001-01-01

    This paper investigates the impact of fund attrition on returns from a sample of superannuation fund managers (specialising in the management of domestic stock portfolios) for the period 1991 through 1999, using a four-factor asset pricing model. Survivorship bias is estimated at 23 basis points per annum. The evidence presented in this study is consistent with recent international evidence that suggests that a sampling technique that excludes terminated funds would result in an overestimatio...

  19. Return voltage: reproductibility of lack in isolated plastics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frutos, F.; Acedo, M.; Jimenez, A.; Perez, J.A.

    1998-01-01

    Return voltage measures from plane-plane and point-plane experimental test objects of polyethylene are presented. Even though a lack of reproducibility is observed, all the experimental voltage curves can be modellized as the sum of two exponential functions: a first one with a long time period and a second one with a quite shorter time parameter. This analytical behaviour could be theoretically explained by considering an exponential dielectric function response. (Author) 7 refs

  20. Positive periodic solutions of delayed periodic Lotka-Volterra systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin Wei; Chen Tianping

    2005-01-01

    In this Letter, for a general class of delayed periodic Lotka-Volterra systems, we prove some new results on the existence of positive periodic solutions by Schauder's fixed point theorem. The global asymptotical stability of positive periodic solutions is discussed further, and conditions for exponential convergence are given. The conditions we obtained are weaker than the previously known ones and can be easily reduced to several special cases

  1. Predictability of Stock Returns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmet Sekreter

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Predictability of stock returns has been shown by empirical studies over time. This article collects the most important theories on forecasting stock returns and investigates the factors that affecting behavior of the stocks’ prices and the market as a whole. Estimation of the factors and the way of estimation are the key issues of predictability of stock returns.

  2. Analisis Return Flow antar Bendung (Studi Kasus Bendung Klampok-Plakaran dan Bendung Sekarsuli

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cut Dwi Refika

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Return flow occures when the intake flow for irrigation is not utilized and return back to the river, whether by runoff or seepage. This study focused on Klampok-Plakaran and Sekarsuli weirs in Sleman Regency Special Region of Yogyakarta. The return flow analysis was carried out by using the Tank Model. The model was adjusted to the field condition, such as paddy fields, cane plantation and fish ponds. Parameters in the Tank Model were the output coefficient from the side flow and below, and the height of storage in the tank. Output from the side of the tank consisted of runoffs and seepage, which were the return flow value. The Tank Model was calibrated and verified to obtain the most proper Tank Model suitable to the condition on field. The accuracy indicators consists of correlation coefficient (R, Volume Error (VE, and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE of 0,97; 5,00 % and 0,03, respectively. Values of return flow during the cultivation season I (October - January, cultivation season II (February - Mei and cultivation season III (June - September were 67,06%, 24,05% and 21,38%, respectively. Model verification parameters were carried out on cultivation season 2009-2010. Value accuracy for the correlation coefficient (R, Volume Error (VE and root mean square error (RMSE are 0,81; 5,20 dan 0,14 respectively.

  3. ANALISIS BEBERAPA FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI HOLDING PERIOD SAHAM BIASA PADA PERUSAHAAN GO PUBLIC YANG TERCATAT DALAM INDEX LQ45

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vinus - Maulina

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT   There are many factors influencing the decision making of investors in holding their possession on security especially common stock. Monetary crisis condition has proved to be able to influence the investors’ attitude in Jakarta Stock Market in investing their capital especially about the long/short of holding a security. This study is conducted based on the differentiation of conclusion/result of study from previous studies about decision to hold security in the long/short term. The aim of this study is to analyze variables influencing holding period of common stock on public firm listed in LQ 45 Index, that are firms generally have good performance assessed based on both market performance and firm fundamental, then analyzing the dominance influencing variable. This study is conducted in Jakarta Stock Exchange with population of stocks listed in LQ 45 index in period of 2000 – 2001 with the total of 64 firms. The Sample Taking Method is purposive sampling with the criteria that the firms at least listed twice in LQ45 index on the study period. The analysis method used to analyze independent variables: spread, market value, variance return, and dividend pay out ratio and dependent variable: holding period is two stage least squares multiple regression model,  since there is possibility that the correlation of bid-ask spread from the current period and bid-ask spread and holding period from the previous period for every stock take place simultaneously. Results of the study showed that, partially, bid-ask spread variable that constitutes the different value between the highest price provided paid by buyer with the lowest price offered by seller has significance positive correlation on holding period of common stock and there is inverse correlation/significance negative between variance return variable that reflect the risk rate from stock effected by fluctuation of stock price and holding period of common stock. While

  4. Return to work among breast cancer survivors: A literature review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Yuanlu; Shigaki, Cheryl L; Armer, Jane M

    2017-03-01

    Breast cancer survivors in their employment years are likely to try to go back to work after the primary treatment. Because the literature on return to work among breast cancer survivors is limited, we have undertaken a review of the literature to summarize what is known, including identifying important contributing variables and outcomes. This knowledge may be used to develop hypotheses and potential interventions to support breast cancer survivors who wish to return to work. We searched the following databases: CINAHL, MEDLINE, SCOUP, and PUBMED, within a 10-year timeframe (2004 to 2014). The majority of reviewed articles (N = 25) focused on three outcomes: return-to-work period, work ability, and work performance. The most frequently studied independent variables were collapsed into the following groups: health and well-being, symptoms and functioning, work demands and work environment, individual characteristics, and societal and cultural factors. Gaps in the literature include evidence of effective interventions to support return to work among breast cancer survivors and research to better understand the roles of government and business-related policy. All the studies reported a reduced work engagement and work ability. Employment status and work performance is associated with a combination of individual factors, work environment, culture, and resources. Significant gaps are apparent in the literature addressing breast cancer survivorship and return to work. This is a complex problem and it will likely require interdisciplinary research teams to develop effective and feasible interventions for this population.

  5. Market Returns and Weak-Form Efficiency: the case of the Ghana Stock Exchange

    OpenAIRE

    Frimpong, Joseph Magnus; Oteng-Abayie, Eric Fosu

    2007-01-01

    This paper examines the weak-form efficient market hypothesis (EMH) in the case of the Ghana Stock Exchange (GSE) an emerging market. Daily returns from the Databank Stock Index (DSI) over a 5-year period 1999-2004 were used for the exercise. Random walk (RW) and GARCH(1,1) models are used as the basis for our analysis. The GSE DSI returns series exhibit volatility clustering, an indication of inefficiency on the GSE. The weak-form efficient market (random walk) hypothesis was rejected for t...

  6. The Tail Exponent for Stock Returns in Bursa Malaysia for 2003-2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rusli, N. H.; Gopir, G.; Usang, M. D.

    2010-07-01

    A developed discipline of econophysics that has been introduced is exhibiting the application of mathematical tools that are usually applied to the physical models for the study of financial models. In this study, an analysis of the time series behavior of several blue chip and penny stock companies in Main Market of Bursa Malaysia has been performed. Generally, the basic quantity being used is the relative price changes or is called the stock price returns, contains daily-sampled data from the beginning of 2003 until the end of 2008, containing 1555 trading days recorded. The aim of this paper is to investigate the tail exponent in tails of the distribution for blue chip stocks and penny stocks financial returns in six years period. By using a standard regression method, it is found that the distribution performed double scaling on the log-log plot of the cumulative probability of the normalized returns. Thus we calculate α for a small scale return as well as large scale return. Based on the result obtained, it is found that the power-law behavior for the probability density functions of the stock price absolute returns P(z)˜z-α with values lying inside and outside the Lévy stable regime with values α>2. All the results were discussed in detail.

  7. Invariance in the recurrence of large returns and the validation of models of price dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Lo-Bin; Geman, Stuart; Hsieh, Fushing; Hwang, Chii-Ruey

    2013-08-01

    Starting from a robust, nonparametric definition of large returns (“excursions”), we study the statistics of their occurrences, focusing on the recurrence process. The empirical waiting-time distribution between excursions is remarkably invariant to year, stock, and scale (return interval). This invariance is related to self-similarity of the marginal distributions of returns, but the excursion waiting-time distribution is a function of the entire return process and not just its univariate probabilities. Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models, market-time transformations based on volume or trades, and generalized (Lévy) random-walk models all fail to fit the statistical structure of excursions.

  8. Culinary Contests in Periodicals as Reflection of Russians’ Everyday Life in Conditions of Modern Economic Reforms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ольга Дмитриевна Попова

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to the analysis of publications of culinary recipes contests in various periodicals. They demonstrate the specificity of Russians’ everyday life in conditions of economic reforms in the country. The published recipes reflect the dynamics of the socio-economic life of the population. These publications demonstrate various ways of doing housekeeping in conditions of the changing economic situation, which influenced the peculiarities of cooking food.

  9. Dependence between Stock Returns of Italian Banks and the Sovereign Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fabrizio Durante

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available We analyze the interdependence between the government yield spread and stock returns of the banking sector in Italy during the years 2003–2015. In a first step, we find that the Spearman’s rank correlation between the yield spread and the Italian banking system changed significantly after September 2008. According to this finding, we split the time window in two sub-periods. While we show that the dependence between the banking industry and changes in the yield spread increased significantly in the second time interval, we find no contagion effects from changes in the yield spread to returns of the banking system.

  10. Modelling the return distribution of salmon farming companies : a quantile regression approach

    OpenAIRE

    Jacobsen, Fredrik

    2017-01-01

    The salmon farming industry has gained increased attention from investors, portfolio managers, financial analysts and other stakeholders the recent years. Despite this development, very little is known about the risk and return of salmon farming company stocks, and especially how the relationship between risk and return varies under different market conditions, given the volatile nature of the salmon farming industry. We approach this problem by using quantile regression to examine the relati...

  11. Uncertain programming models for portfolio selection with uncertain returns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Bo; Peng, Jin; Li, Shengguo

    2015-10-01

    In an indeterminacy economic environment, experts' knowledge about the returns of securities consists of much uncertainty instead of randomness. This paper discusses portfolio selection problem in uncertain environment in which security returns cannot be well reflected by historical data, but can be evaluated by the experts. In the paper, returns of securities are assumed to be given by uncertain variables. According to various decision criteria, the portfolio selection problem in uncertain environment is formulated as expected-variance-chance model and chance-expected-variance model by using the uncertainty programming. Within the framework of uncertainty theory, for the convenience of solving the models, some crisp equivalents are discussed under different conditions. In addition, a hybrid intelligent algorithm is designed in the paper to provide a general method for solving the new models in general cases. At last, two numerical examples are provided to show the performance and applications of the models and algorithm.

  12. Modeling variations in the cedi/dollar exchange rate in Ghana: an autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (ARCH) models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Techie Quaicoe, Michael; Twenefour, Frank B K; Baah, Emmanuel M; Nortey, Ezekiel N N

    2015-01-01

    This research article aimed at modeling the variations in the dollar/cedi exchange rate. It examines the applicability of a range of ARCH/GARCH specifications for modeling volatility of the series. The variants considered include the ARMA, GARCH, IGARCH, EGARCH and M-GARCH specifications. The results show that the series was non stationary which resulted from the presence of a unit root in it. The ARMA (1, 1) was found to be the most suitable model for the conditional mean. From the Box-Ljung test statistics x-squared of 1476.338 with p value 0.00217 for squared returns and 16.918 with 0.0153 p values for squared residuals, the null hypothesis of no ARCH effect was rejected at 5% significance level indicating the presence of an ARCH effect in the series. ARMA (1, 1) + GARCH (1, 1) which has all parameters significant was found to be the most suitable model for the conditional mean with conditional variance, thus showing adequacy in describing the conditional mean with variance of the return series at 5% significant level. A 24 months forecast for the mean actual exchange rates and mean returns from January, 2013 to December, 2014 made also showed that the fitted model is appropriate for the data and a depreciating trend of the cedi against the dollar for forecasted period respectively.

  13. The Return to Foreign Aid

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dalgaard, Carl-Johan Lars; Hansen, Henrik

    2017-01-01

    We estimate the average rate of return on investments financed by aid and by domestic resource mobilisation, using aggregate data. Both returns are expected to vary across countries and time. Consequently we develop a correlated random coefficients model to estimate the average returns. Across...... different estimators and two different data sources for GDP and investment our findings are remarkably robust; the average gross return on ‘aid investments’ is about 20 per cent. This is in accord with micro estimates of the economic rate of return on aid projects and with aggregate estimates of the rate...

  14. How well do financial and macroeconomic variables predict stock returns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Anne-Sofie Reng

    Recent evidence of mean reversion in stock returns has led to an explosion in the development of forecasting variables. This paper evaluates the relative performance of these many variables in both time-series and cross-sectional setups. We collect the different measures and compare their forecas......Recent evidence of mean reversion in stock returns has led to an explosion in the development of forecasting variables. This paper evaluates the relative performance of these many variables in both time-series and cross-sectional setups. We collect the different measures and compare...... their forecasting ability for stock returns, and we examine the forecasting variables' ability to reduce pricing errors in the conditional C-CAPM. A key result of the analysis is that the traditional pricedividend ratio performs surprisingly well compared to the many new forecasting variables. We also find...

  15. Pengaruh Dividen Inisiasi dan Dividen Omisi terhadap Return Saham di Bursa Efek Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Azizah Ayu Sielvia

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study is to determine the effect of dividend initiations and dividend omission of stock returns in Indonesia Stock Exchange (BEI. Variables in this study consist of dividends, dividend announcements, and a significant stock return on dividend announcement reflected the presence of abnormal return during the event period. This study employs the company's shares listed on Indonesia Stock Exchange and are actively traded. Samples used as many as 50 companies, where 37 companies as a dividend initiation and 13 companies as a dividend omission. The sample selection was done by purposive sampling method that is research based on certain criteria. Results of analysis testing the effect of the abnormal return of dividend announcements indicate a significant influence. Announcements of dividend initiations have significant positive influence, while the announcements of dividend omissions have significant negative market reaction. That means the announcement of dividend initiations have a signal or a specific information content that causes the market to react more than normal state of the information, while the announcement of dividend omissions affect investors to remove their stock price moves down or there is a significant abnormal return.Keywords: dividend initiation, dividend omission, dividend announcement, stock return

  16. The Use of Risk and Return for Testing the Stability of Stock Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Viorica Chirilă

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The European Central Bank stipulates that a financial system is stable if the financial risks are evaluated and rewarded correctly and if the economic and financial shocks are absorbed. When analyzing the return and volatility of the stock exchanges we may ascertain that a stock exchange is stable if there is a connection between return and volatility and if the shocks determined by the new positive and negative information do not cause significant changes of the volatility. We took into consideration the values of the indices of stock markets from Holland (AEX, Belgium (BEL, Romania (BET, Hungary (BUX, Germany (DAX, France (CAC, Czech Republic (PX, Slovakia (SAX, Austria (ATX, Estonia (OMXT, Latvia (OMXR and Lithuania (OMXV. In order to test the relationship between return-volatility and volatility asymmetry we estimated a GJR-GARCH-M model. The results confirm the lack of existence of a correlation between return and volatility for the entire period under analysis and the existence of the volatility asymmetry.

  17. Reinstatement of Conditioned Suppression in Mice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Trinette Dirikx

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available Return of fear after successful exposure therapy calls for a better understanding of the mechanisms of relapse. Classical conditioning research provides a useful framework for conceptualising the acquisition, extinction and reappearance of fear. The present paper focuses on reinstatement, the return of extinguished conditioned responses due to the experience of one or more unconditioned stimuli (USs after extinction. This phenomenon illustrates that unpredictable USs can lead to a return of fear after successful exposure. The data we present is one of the first demonstrations that conditioned suppression of instrumental behaviour can be used as an index of classical conditioning in laboratory mice. The procedure proves to be a promising instrument for assessing fear in mice, both in the context of research aimed at unravelling the functional characteristics of learning and memory in healthy mice and in the context of research aimed at unravelling the neurobiological substrate of psychiatric disorders, e.g., in studies with transgenic and knockout mice. Using this procedure, we report the first observation of reinstatement of conditioned suppression in this species.

  18. Effect of Number of Spermatozoa, Oviduct Condition and Timing of Artificial Insemination on Fertility and Fertile Period of Kampung Rooster Spermatozoa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    DM Saleh

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract. This study was carried out to determine the optimum fertility and fertile period using the number of spermatozoa, oviduct condition and timing of insemination of native rooster spermatozoa. Ninety six commercial Isa brown pullets and nine kampung roosters were used in this study in a 3×2×2 factorial arrangement with one bird in a cage constituting a unit. The factor levels were the number of spermatozoa (50, 100 and 150 million/0.1 ml, oviduct condition (hard-shelled eggs and free hard-shelled eggs, and timing of artificial insemination (in the morning, at 7 AM and in the afternoon, at 4 PM.  The results showed that among the treatments there was no significant interaction to fertility and fertile period. Insemination with 50 million sperm number seemed to be the same result with the other 2 treatments. Oviduct condition had a highly significant difference on fertility and fertile period percentage, and timing of insemination did not differ between morning and afternoon.  In conclusion, the only oviduct condition (free hard-shelled eggs was the best results for insemination in terms of fertility and fertile period of native roosters.  It is recommended that for the maximum fertility and fertile period, hens should be inseminated with 50 million spermatozoa, free of hard-shelled eggs and insemination performed in the morning or in the afternoon.   Keywords: timing of artificial insemination, fertility, fertile period, semen dose, oviduct condition Animal Production 14(1:32-36, January 2012

  19. An Efficient Approach for Mars Sample Return Using Emerging Commercial Capabilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonzales, Andrew A; Stoker, Carol R

    2016-06-01

    Mars Sample Return is the highest priority science mission for the next decade as recommended by the 2011 Decadal Survey of Planetary Science [1]. This article presents the results of a feasibility study for a Mars Sample Return mission that efficiently uses emerging commercial capabilities expected to be available in the near future. The motivation of our study was the recognition that emerging commercial capabilities might be used to perform Mars Sample Return with an Earth-direct architecture, and that this may offer a desirable simpler and lower cost approach. The objective of the study was to determine whether these capabilities can be used to optimize the number of mission systems and launches required to return the samples, with the goal of achieving the desired simplicity. All of the major element required for the Mars Sample Return mission are described. Mission system elements were analyzed with either direct techniques or by using parametric mass estimating relationships. The analysis shows the feasibility of a complete and closed Mars Sample Return mission design based on the following scenario: A SpaceX Falcon Heavy launch vehicle places a modified version of a SpaceX Dragon capsule, referred to as "Red Dragon", onto a Trans Mars Injection trajectory. The capsule carries all the hardware needed to return to Earth Orbit samples collected by a prior mission, such as the planned NASA Mars 2020 sample collection rover. The payload includes a fully fueled Mars Ascent Vehicle; a fueled Earth Return Vehicle, support equipment, and a mechanism to transfer samples from the sample cache system onboard the rover to the Earth Return Vehicle. The Red Dragon descends to land on the surface of Mars using Supersonic Retropropulsion. After collected samples are transferred to the Earth Return Vehicle, the single-stage Mars Ascent Vehicle launches the Earth Return Vehicle from the surface of Mars to a Mars phasing orbit. After a brief phasing period, the Earth Return

  20. DAMPAK PEMODERASIAN KOMPONEN ARUS KAS TERHADAP HUBUNGAN LABA AKUNTANSI DENGAN RETURN SAHAM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    PUTU ARI DHARMA LAKSMI

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available Accurate information regarding listed companies is crucial tominimize investment risk. This research aims to examine the effect ofaccounting income on stock return, and the effect of cash flow fromoperation, cash flow from investment, and cash flow from financingactivities respectively as moderating variables on the relationshipbetween accounting income and stock return of manufacturer listedon the Jakarta Stock Exchange.There were 161 manufacturing companies listed during 2001to 2005, and 39 of them are selected as sample research usingpurposive sampling method. With 5 year research period, there are195 observations done. Data then are analyzed using multiple linearregressions.Results show that accounting income affect stock returnsignificantly, which is shown by greater value of t count compare to ttable. While cash flow from operation, investment, and financingactivities are not able to moderate relationship between accountingincome and stock return.

  1. 76 FR 22611 - Specified Tax Return Preparers Required To File Individual Income Tax Returns Using Magnetic...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-04-22

    ... Specified Tax Return Preparers Required To File Individual Income Tax Returns Using Magnetic Media... Register on Wednesday, March 30, 2011 (76 FR 17521) providing guidance to specified tax return preparers who prepare and file individual income tax returns using magnetic media pursuant to section 6011(e)(3...

  2. Are Returns to Education on the Decline in Venezuela and Does Mission Sucre Have a Role to Play?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonzalez, Naihobe; Oyelere, Ruth Uwaifo

    2011-01-01

    Anecdotal evidence points to a falling standard of living for the educated in Venezuela. During this same period, President Hugo Chavez implemented several education reforms. We focus on a major university education reform known as Mission Sucre and its potential impact on returns to university education. First, we show that returns to education…

  3. The Smoothing Hypothesis, Stock Returns and Risk in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Lopo Martinez

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Income smoothing is defined as the deliberate normalization of income in order to reach a desired trend. If the smoothing causes more information to be reflected in the stock price, it is likely to improve the allocation of resources and can be a critical factor in investment decisions. This study aims to build metrics to determine the degree of smoothing in Brazilian public companies, to classify them as smoothing and non-smoothing companies and additionally to present evidence on the long-term relationship between the smoothing hypothesis and stock return and risk. Using the Economatica and CVM databases, this study focuses on 145 companies in the period 1998-2007. We find that Brazilian smoothers have a smaller degree of systemic risk than non-smoothers. In average terms, the beta of smoothers is significantly lower than non-smoothers. Regarding return, we find that the abnormal annualized returns of smoothers are significantly higher. We confirm differences in the groups by nonparametric and parametric tests in cross section or as time series, indicating that there is a statistically significant difference in performance in the Brazilian market between firms that do and do not engage in smoothing.

  4. Deprem Magnitüdleri İçin Tekrarlanma Yıllarının Elde Edilmesi : Marmara Bölgesi Örneği = Obtaining the Return Period of Earthquake Magnitudes : As an Example Marmara Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Reşat KASAP

    2003-06-01

    Full Text Available In this study, statistical analysis have been done for 447 earthquake occurrences data, between north (39.500-41.500 and east (26.000-32.500 coordinates in the Marmara Region from 1900 to 2000. It has been found that the probability density and distribution functions of magnitude random variable, and then the return period of earthquakes of various magnitudes have been found.

  5. Factors Affecting Stock Returns of Firms Quoted in ISE Market: A Dynamic Panel Data Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Şebnem Er

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Several studies, explaining the factors affecting stock returns, have been published both in developed and developing countries. In many of these papers, either cross-sectional or time series methods have been applied. In this study, Dynamic Panel Data Analysis Methods have been conducted to explain the factors affecting stock returns of 64 manufacturing firms that are continuously quoted in ISE during the period of 2003-2007. The results indicate that stock performance, financial structure, activity and profitability ratios can be used to explain the stock returns as well as the oil prices, economic growth, exchange rate, interest rate, and money supply.

  6. Working Capital Approaches and Firm’s Returns in Pakistan

    OpenAIRE

    Dr. Talat Afza; Mian Sajid Nazir

    2008-01-01

    This study investigates the relationship between the aggressive/conservative working capital policies for seventeen industrial groups of public limited companies listed at Karachi Stock Exchange for a period of 1998-2003. The ordinary least square regression model has been used to investigate into the relationship of working capital approaches and the returns of firms. The study found significant differences among their working capital investment and financing policies across different indust...

  7. Periparturient Period in Terms of Body Condition Score and Selected Parameters of Hormonal Profiles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vargová M.

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The majority of all diseases in dairy cows occur during the period from three weeks before parturition to three weeks after parturition, in the periparturient or transitional period. The objective of this study was to evaluate the dynamics of selected parameters of: the hormonal profiles, the body condition score (BCS and their interrelationships. The study was carried out on 15 dairy cows of the Slovak Pied Cattle, from three weeks before to nine weeks after parturition, which were divided into six groups. The concentrations of leptin during ante partum increased from 23.08 ± 10.58 ng.ml−1 to 26.80 ± 11.47 ng.ml−1, then gradually decreased (P > 0.05, and conversely, the concentrations of ghrelin before parturition were found to be decreasing and during the postpartal period, the concentrations increased, with the highest value of 35.94 ± 16.85 pg.ml−1. In the case of insulin, we found the opposite tendency of ghrelin. We observed significantly higher values of BCS in dry cows than in cows after parturition (P < 0.001. Comparing the BCS and the parameter of the hormonal profiles, we found both positive and negative correlations: leptin and ghrelin (r = −0.235, P < 0.05, and BCS and insulin (r = 0.232, P < 0.05, and BCS and leptin (r = 0.360, P < 0.001. The interrelationships between the hormones and the body condition score, provided evidence that the variations in concentrations of leptin, ghrelin and insulin were related to variations in the BCS.

  8. Bid-Ask Spreads, Trading Volume and Return Volatility: Intraday Evidence from Indian Stock Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rashmi Ranjan Paital

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper empirically examines the relationship between stock return volatility, trading volume and bid-ask spread within the scope of mixture of distribution hypothesis (MDH and sequential information arrival hypothesis (SIAH in the Indian stock market using high frequency 5-minute data set over the period of 2 July 2012 to 31 December 2012. This is the first kind of study in India using bid-ask spread as an additional information variable along with trading volume to investigate the relationship with stock return volatility. Our empirical findings provide evidence of a positive contemporaneous relationship between return volatility and trading volume, and also between return volatility and bid-ask spread. Moreover, the results of Granger causality test show that the information content of trading volume and bid-ask spread are useful for predicting stock return volatility. Our results indicate that information arrival to investors tends to follow a sequential rather than a simultaneous process. This finding is consistent with the sequential information arrival hypothesis and contradicts the mixture of distribution hypothesis.

  9. Temporal Oculomotor Inhibition of Return and Spatial Facilitation of Return in a Visual Encoding Task

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steven G Luke

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Oculomotor inhibition of return (O-IOR is an increase in saccade latency prior to an eye movement to a recently fixated location compared to other locations. It has been proposed that this temporal O-IOR may have spatial consequences, facilitating foraging by inhibiting return to previously attended regions. In order to test this possibility, participants viewed arrays of objects and of words while their eye movements were recorded. Temporal O-IOR was observed, with equivalent effects for object and word arrays, indicating that temporal O-IOR is an oculomotor phenomenon independent of array content. There was no evidence for spatial inhibition of return. Instead, spatial facilitation of return was observed: Participants were significantly more likely than chance to make return saccades and to refixate just-visited locations. Further, the likelihood of making a return saccade to an object or word was contingent on the amount of time spent viewing that object or word before leaving it. This suggests that, unlike temporal O-IOR, return probability is influenced by cognitive processing. Taken together, these results are inconsistent with the hypothesis that inhibition of return functions as a foraging facilitator. The results also provide strong evidence for a different oculomotor bias that could serve as a foraging facilitator: saccadic momentum, a tendency to repeat the most recently executed saccade program. We suggest that models of visual attention could incorporate saccadic momentum in place of inhibition of return.

  10. Prediction of Typhoon Wind Speeds under Global Warming Conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choun, Young Sun; Kim, Min Kyu; Kang, Ju Whan; Kim, Yang Seon

    2016-01-01

    The continuous increase of SST by global warming conditions in the western North Pacific Ocean results in an increased occurrence of supertyphoons in East Asia and the Korean Peninsula. Recent numerical experiments have found that the central pressures of two historical typhoons, Maemi (2003) and Rusa (2002), which recorded the highest storm surges along the coasts of the Korean Peninsula, dropped about 19 and 17 hPa, respectively, when considering the future SST (a warming of 3.9 .deg. C for 100 years) over the East China Sea. The maximum wind speeds increase under global warming conditions. The probability of occurrence of super-typhoons increases in the future. The estimated return period for supertyphoons affecting the Younggwang site is about 1,000,000 years.

  11. Prediction of Typhoon Wind Speeds under Global Warming Conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Choun, Young Sun; Kim, Min Kyu [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Kang, Ju Whan; Kim, Yang Seon [Mokpo National University, Muan (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    The continuous increase of SST by global warming conditions in the western North Pacific Ocean results in an increased occurrence of supertyphoons in East Asia and the Korean Peninsula. Recent numerical experiments have found that the central pressures of two historical typhoons, Maemi (2003) and Rusa (2002), which recorded the highest storm surges along the coasts of the Korean Peninsula, dropped about 19 and 17 hPa, respectively, when considering the future SST (a warming of 3.9 .deg. C for 100 years) over the East China Sea. The maximum wind speeds increase under global warming conditions. The probability of occurrence of super-typhoons increases in the future. The estimated return period for supertyphoons affecting the Younggwang site is about 1,000,000 years.

  12. Mars Sample Return Architecture Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, C. D.; Vijendran, S.

    2018-04-01

    NASA and ESA are exploring potential concepts for a Sample Retrieval Lander and Earth Return Orbiter that could return samples planned to be collected and cached by the Mars 2020 rover mission. We provide an overview of the Mars Sample Return architecture.

  13. Economic crisis and women's labor force return after childbirth: Evidence from South Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Ma

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Background: Most research on women's labor force return after childbirth concentrates on industrialized countries in the West; the link between economic swings and mothers' work-return behavior is rarely addressed. This study closes these gaps by focusing on South Korea, a developed society in East Asia that has in recent decades witnessed increases in female labor force participation and dramatic economic ups and downs. This is the first relevant study on South Korea. Objective: This study examines how women's labor force return after childbirth (with and without career interruption and their career prospects upon work return varied before, during, and after the Asian financial crisis in South Korea. Methods: Logistic and hazard regression models were applied to the Korea Labor and Income Panel Study (KLIPS waves 1-10. Results: The study reveals an increase in women's immediate work return after childbirth without career interruption since the 1980s. The Asian financial crisis boosted this immediate return pattern. The implementation of job-protected maternity leave further contributed to this pattern. Women who underwent career interruption at first birth were also more likely to re-enter the labor market during and after the crisis than before. Downward occupational moves were especially common during the period of financial crisis. Conclusions: The results suggest that the Asian financial crisis triggered a noticeable change in women's post-birth work-return behavior. The economic volatility pushed mothers to hold onto their role in the labor force more strongly than before.

  14. 26 CFR 20.6018-2 - Returns; person required to file return.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... executor or administrator shall file the return. If there is more than one executor or administrator, the return must be made jointly by all. If there is no executor or administrator appointed, qualified and... decedent situated in the United States is constituted an executor for purposes of the tax (see § 20.2203-1...

  15. The Risk-Return Tradeoff and Leverage Effect in a Stochastic Volatility-in-Mean Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Bent Jesper; Posedel, Petra

    We study the risk premium and leverage effect in the S&P500 market using the stochastic volatility-in-mean model of Barndor¤-Nielsen & Shephard (2001). The Merton (1973, 1980) equilibrium asset pricing condition linking the conditional mean and conditional variance of discrete time returns is rei...

  16. Private Returns on Education in Ghana: Estimating the Effects of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    national progress as investment in education accrues both private and social returns. ... Universal Basic Education (FCUBE), the Capitation Grant and the School Feeding .... working conditions of media workers in Ghana found a close link between educational ..... jobs, particularly elementary jobs in the formal sector.

  17. Coping with brief periods of food restriction: mindfulness matters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brielle ePaolini

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The obesity epidemic had spawned considerable interest in understanding peoples’ responses to palatable food cues that are plentiful in obesogenic environments. In this paper we examine how trait mindfulness of older, obese adults may moderate brain networks that arise from exposure to such cues. Nineteen older, obese adults came to our laboratory on two different occasions. Both times they ate a controlled breakfast meal and then were restricted from eating for 2.5 hours. After this brief period of food restriction, they had an fMRI scan in which they were exposed to food cues and then underwent a 5-minute recovery period to evaluate brain networks at rest. On one day they consumed a BOOST® liquid meal prior to scanning, whereas on the other day they only consumed water (NO BOOST® condition. We found that adults high in trait mindfulness were able to return to their default mode network (DMN, as indicated by greater global efficiency in the precuneus, during the post-exposure rest period. This effect was stronger for the BOOST® than NO BOOST® treatment condition. Older adults low in trait mindfulness did not exhibit this pattern in the DMN. In fact, the brain networks of those low on the MAAS suggests that they continued to be preoccupied with the elaboration of food cues even after cue exposure had ended. Further work is needed to examine whether mindfulness-based therapies alter brain networks to food cues and whether these changes are related to eating behavior.

  18. Analisis Pengaruh Perubahan Arus Kas dan Laba Akuntansi Terhadap Return Saham pada Perusahaan Berkapitalisasi Besar

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Azilia Yocelyn

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to examine whether the changes of cash flows and accounting profit, used by investors to make investment decision, reflected in the companies’ stock return. There are four independent variables includes in this study, that is cash flows from operating, investing, and financing activities, as well as accounting profit. The stock return is calculated by using the geometric mean method. Multiple regression analysis is used to examine the data on the top 97 public companies (based on market capitalization catagory listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange for period 2009-2010. The result reveals that accounting profit disclosure markedly affected the stock return. This implies that investors took into account the publication of accounting profit in their decision making. On the other side, the study cannot prove the association of other independent variables to  the stock return.

  19. Pengaruh Downside Beta, Upside Beta, Dan Beta Terhadap Expected Return (Studi Pada Saham Yang Termasuk Dalam 50 Leading Market Capitalization Di Bursa Efek Indonesia Periode 2012-2015)

    OpenAIRE

    Sinaga, Maria Goretty; Sulasmiyati, Sri

    2017-01-01

    Return or return on an investment is required by the investor. Most investors currently prefer shares in emerging markets. Return in the emerging market is not always symmetrical, it shows return in the emerging market is not normally distributed. The purposive of this research want to learn, compare, and explain about some model of stock risk. On this research downside risk expressed with beta downside. The models used in this research among others, dowside beta, upside beta, and beta. The k...

  20. Optimal inventory policy in a closed loop supply chain system with multiple periods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sasi Kumar, A.; Natarajan, K.; Ramasubramaniam, Muthu Rathna Sapabathy.; Deepaknallasamy, K.K.

    2017-01-01

    Purpose: This paper aims to model and optimize the closed loop supply chain for maximizing the profit by considering the fixed order quantity inventory policy in various sites at multiple periods. Design/methodology/approach: In forward supply chain, a standard inventory policy can be followed when the product moves from manufacturer, distributer, retailer and customer but the inventory in the reverse supply chain of the product with the similar standard policy is very difficult to manage. This model investigates the standard policy of fixed order quantity by considering the three major types of return-recovery pair such as commercial returns, end- of- use returns, end –of- life returns and their inventory positioning at multiple periods. The model is configured as mixed integer linear programming and solved by IBM ILOG CPLEX OPL studio. Findings: To find the performance of the model a numerical example is considered for a product with three Parts (A which of 2nos, B and C) for 12 multiple periods. The results of the analysis show that the manufacturer can know how much should to be manufacture in multiple periods based on Variations of the demand by adopting the FOQ inventory policy at different sites considering its capacity constraints. In addition, it is important how much of parts should be purchased from the supplier at the given 12 periods. Originality/value: A sensitivity analysis is performed to validate the proposed model two parts. First part of the analysis will focus on the inventory of product and parts and second part of analysis focus on profit of the company. The analysis which provides some insights in to the structure of the model.

  1. Optimal inventory policy in a closed loop supply chain system with multiple periods

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sasi Kumar, A.; Natarajan, K.; Ramasubramaniam, Muthu Rathna Sapabathy.; Deepaknallasamy, K.K.

    2017-07-01

    Purpose: This paper aims to model and optimize the closed loop supply chain for maximizing the profit by considering the fixed order quantity inventory policy in various sites at multiple periods. Design/methodology/approach: In forward supply chain, a standard inventory policy can be followed when the product moves from manufacturer, distributer, retailer and customer but the inventory in the reverse supply chain of the product with the similar standard policy is very difficult to manage. This model investigates the standard policy of fixed order quantity by considering the three major types of return-recovery pair such as commercial returns, end- of- use returns, end –of- life returns and their inventory positioning at multiple periods. The model is configured as mixed integer linear programming and solved by IBM ILOG CPLEX OPL studio. Findings: To find the performance of the model a numerical example is considered for a product with three Parts (A which of 2nos, B and C) for 12 multiple periods. The results of the analysis show that the manufacturer can know how much should to be manufacture in multiple periods based on Variations of the demand by adopting the FOQ inventory policy at different sites considering its capacity constraints. In addition, it is important how much of parts should be purchased from the supplier at the given 12 periods. Originality/value: A sensitivity analysis is performed to validate the proposed model two parts. First part of the analysis will focus on the inventory of product and parts and second part of analysis focus on profit of the company. The analysis which provides some insights in to the structure of the model.

  2. Optimal inventory policy in a closed loop supply chain system with multiple periods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SasiKumar A.

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: This paper aims to model and optimize the closed loop supply chain for maximizing the profit by considering the fixed order quantity inventory policy in various sites at multiple periods. Design/methodology/approach: In forward supply chain, a standard inventory policy can be followed when the product moves from manufacturer, distributer, retailer and customer but the inventory in the reverse supply chain of the product with the similar standard policy is very difficult to manage. This model investigates the standard policy of fixed order quantity by considering the three major types of return-recovery pair such as commercial returns, end- of- use returns, end –of- life returns and their inventory positioning at multiple periods.  The model is configured as mixed integer linear programming and solved by IBM ILOG CPLEX OPL studio. Findings: To find the performance of the model a numerical example is considered for a product with three Parts (A which of 2nos, B and C for 12 multiple periods. The results of the analysis show that the manufacturer can know how much should to be manufacture in multiple periods based on Variations of the demand by adopting the FOQ inventory policy at different sites considering its capacity constraints. In addition, it is important how much of parts should be purchased from the supplier at the given 12 periods. Originality/value: A sensitivity analysis is performed to validate the proposed model two parts. First part of the analysis will focus on the inventory of product and parts and second part of analysis focus on profit of the company. The analysis which provides some insights in to the structure of the model.

  3. Return spillovers between white precious metal ETFs: The role of oil, gold, and global equity

    OpenAIRE

    Lau, Marco Chi Keung; Vigne, Samuel A.; Wang, Shixuan; Yarovaya, Larisa

    2017-01-01

    This paper investigates the relationship between white precious metals and gold, oil and global equity by means of spillovers and volatility transmission. Relying on the recently introduced ETFs, this study is the first to analyse return spillovers derived from an E-GARCH model and to take into account frequency dynamics to understand changes in connectedness across periods of time. Results uncover numerous channels of return transmission across the selected ETF markets over the last 10 years...

  4. Getting the Most out of Macroeconomic Information for Predicting Stock Returns and Volatility

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C. Cakmakli (Cem); D.J.C. van Dijk (Dick)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractThis paper documents that factors extracted from a large set of macroeconomic variables bear useful information for predicting monthly US excess stock returns and volatility over the period 1980-2005. Factor-augmented predictive regression models improve upon both benchmark models that

  5. Getting the most out of macroeconomic information for predicting stock returns and volatility

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cakmakli, C.; van Dijk, D.

    2011-01-01

    This paper documents that factors extracted from a large set of macroeconomic variables bear useful information for predicting monthly US excess stock returns and volatility over the period 1980-2005. Factor-augmented predictive regression models improve upon both benchmark models that only include

  6. The effect of box shape on the dynamic properties of proteins simulated under periodic boundary conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wassenaar, T.A.; Mark, A.E.

    The effect of the box shape on the dynamic behavior of proteins simulated under periodic boundary conditions is evaluated. In particular, the influence of simulation boxes defined by the near-densest lattice packing (NDLP) in conjunction with rotational constraints is compared to that of standard

  7. Lightning Return Stroke Current Analysis Using Electromagnetic Models and the 3D-FDTD Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kaddour Arzag

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The three dimensions finite difference time domain method (3D-FDTD is employed to calculate lightning return stoke current distributions in a vertical lightning channel. The latter is excited at its bottom by a lumped current source above a flat perfectly conducting ground. In this study four lightning return stroke electromagnetic models are used. The calculating approach, which is based on Taflove formulation of the 3D-FDTD method combined to the UPML boundary conditions, is implemented on Matlab environment. For validation needs, the obtained lightning return stroke space and time distributions are compared with others taken from specialized literature.

  8. PUC fast track nips returns

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1990-01-01

    In the first of what it says will be annual cost-of-capital proceedings to set returns on equity and rates of return on rate base for electric utilities, the California Public Utilities Commission (PUC) lowered from 1989 levels the 1990 returns on common equity (ROE) and rates of return (ROR) for the state's four major investor-owned electric utilities. Under this fast-track procedure, by May 8 of every year, utilities will have to file an application for rate adjustments that reflect their projected costs of capital for the following year

  9. The return to foreign aid

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dalgaard, Carl-Johan Lars; Hansen, Henrik

    We investigate the marginal productivity of investment across countries. The aim is to estimate the return on investments financed by foreign aid and by domestic resource mobilization, using aggregate data. Both returns are expected to vary across countries and time. Consequently we develop...... a correlated random coefficients model, to estimate the average aggregate return on ‘aid investments’ and ‘domestic investments’. Across different estimators and two different sources for GDP and investment data our findings are remarkably robust; the average gross return on ‘aid investments’ is about 20 per...

  10. Return rates from intertidal foraging from Blombos Cave to Pinnacle Point: Understanding early human economies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Vynck, Jan C; Anderson, Robert; Atwater, Chloe; Cowling, Richard M; Fisher, Erich C; Marean, Curtis W; Walker, Robert S; Hill, Kim

    2016-03-01

    The south coast of South Africa provides the earliest evidence for Middle Stone Age (MSA) coastal resource exploitation by early Homo sapiens. In coastal archaeology worldwide, there has been a debate over the general productivity of intertidal foraging, leading to studies that directly measure productivity in some regions, but there have been no such studies in South Africa. Here we present energetic return rate estimates for intertidal foraging along the southern coast of South Africa from Blombos Cave to Pinnacle Point. Foraging experiments were conducted with Khoi-San descendants of the region, and hourly caloric return rates for experienced foragers were measured on 41 days near low tide and through three seasons over two study years. On-site return rates varied as a function of sex, tidal level, marine habitat type and weather conditions. The overall energetic return rate from the entire sample (1492 kcal h(-1)) equals or exceeds intertidal returns reported from other hunter-gatherer studies, as well as measured return rates for activities as diverse as hunting mammals and plant collecting. Returns are projected to be exceptionally high (∼ 3400 kcal h(-1) for men, ∼ 1900 kcal h(-1) for women) under the best combination of conditions. However, because of the monthly tidal cycle, high return foraging is only possible for about 10 days per month and for only 2-3 h on those days. These experiments suggest that while intertidal resources are attractive, women and children could not have subsisted independently, nor met all their protein-lipid needs from marine resources alone, and would have required substantial additional energy and nutrients from plant gathering and/or from males contributing game. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Estimating Stocks Return with Decomposition of the Book-to-Market Ratio: Evidences from Bovespa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juliano Ribeiro de Almeida

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available The book-to-market (BM ratio differs across stocks because to differences in expected cashflows and expected returns. The central hypothesis is that the evolution of BM, in terms of past changes in price and book equity, contains information about future cashflows that can be used to improve estimates of expected returns. This article used a database of Economática to extract a sample of non-financial companies shares listed on BOVESPA and test this hypothesis. The estimated regressions were performed monthly during the period July 1996 to June 2008. Both for large and mid caps as for small caps, the results do not favor this hypothesis and show that only the most recent BM is important to predict the assets returns. Furthermore, stock issues and repurchases are also related to future cashflows and it is expected to improve estimates of expected returns. However, the results provide no evidence favoring that.

  12. Conditional Correlation Models of Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity with Nonstationary GARCH Equations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Amado, Cristina; Teräsvirta, Timo

    -run and the short-run dynamic behaviour of the volatilities. The structure of the conditional correlation matrix is assumed to be either time independent or to vary over time. We apply our model to pairs of seven daily stock returns belonging to the S&P 500 composite index and traded at the New York Stock Exchange......In this paper we investigate the effects of careful modelling the long-run dynamics of the volatilities of stock market returns on the conditional correlation structure. To this end we allow the individual unconditional variances in Conditional Correlation GARCH models to change smoothly over time...... by incorporating a nonstationary component in the variance equations. The modelling technique to determine the parametric structure of this time-varying component is based on a sequence of specification Lagrange multiplier-type tests derived in Amado and Teräsvirta (2011). The variance equations combine the long...

  13. Existence theory for sequential fractional differential equations with anti-periodic type boundary conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aqlan Mohammed H.

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available We develop the existence theory for sequential fractional differential equations involving Liouville-Caputo fractional derivative equipped with anti-periodic type (non-separated and nonlocal integral boundary conditions. Several existence criteria depending on the nonlinearity involved in the problems are presented by means of a variety of tools of the fixed point theory. The applicability of the results is shown with the aid of examples. Our results are not only new in the given configuration but also yield some new special cases for specific choices of parameters involved in the problems.

  14. Institutional Venture Capital for the Space Industry: Providing Risk Capital for Space Companies that Provide Investor Returns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Roscoe M., III

    2002-01-01

    provided by an institution. Those institutions tend to be Banks, Pension Funds, Insurance Funds, Corporations, and other incorporated entities that are obligated to earn a return on their invested capital. These institutions invest in a venture capital firm for the sole purpose of getting their money back with a healthy profit - within a set period of time. The venture capital firm is responsible for investing in and managing companies whose risk and return are higher than other less risky classes of investment. The venture capital firm's primary skill is its ability to manage the high risk of its venture investments while maintaining the high return potential of its venture investments. to businesses for the purpose of providing the above-mentioned Institutions a substantial return on their invested capital. Institutional Venture Capital for the Space Industry cannot be provided to projects or companies whose philosophy or intention is not to increase shareholder equity value within a set time period. efficiently when tied up in companies that intend to spend billions of dollars before the first dollar of revenue is generated. If 2 billion dollars of venture capital is invested in the equity of a Space Company for a minority equity position, then that Space Company must build that minority shareholder's equity value to a minimum investment return of 4 to 8 billion dollars. There are not many start-up companies that are able to reach public market equity valuations in the tens of billions of dollars within reasonable time horizons. Foundations, Manufacturers, and Strategic Investors can invest in projects that cannot realistically provide a substantial return on their equity to their investors within a reasonable period (5-7 years) of time. Venture Capitalists have to make money. Venture capitalists have made money on Satellite Television, Satellite Radio, Fixed Satellite Services, and other businesses. Venture capitalists have not made money on stand

  15. Dampak Modal Intelektual Terhadap Kinerja Bank Umum Nasional Periode 2010-2015

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Endang Pitaloka

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract. The purpose of this study is to find out the influence of intellectual capital on Return on Asset of the National Commercial Bank 2010-2015 period. The intellectual capital variable as independent variable consists of Human Capital / Human Capital (HCE, Structured Capital (SCE, Capital Employed Capital (CEE.,and the dependent variable is Return on Assets (ROA. This study used secondary data sourced from the financial statements. The samples of this study are banks with assets of more than Rp. 50 trillion, include state-owned enterprise bank and private bank. Data analysis technique used in this research is pooled regression analysis. The results showed that both Human Capital (HCE and Capital Employed (CEE have significant influence and positive impact on Return on Asset (ROA at α = 5%. Although Structured Capital (SCE has no significant influence on Return on Asset (ROA, but SCE has positive impact on Return on Assets (ROA.   Keywords: Intellectual Capital; HCE; SCE; CEE; ROA.   Abstrak. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui pengaruh modal intelektual terhadap kinerja Bank Umum Nasional periode 2010-2015. Variabel modal intelektual sebagai variabel bebas terdiri dari: Modal Manusia / Human Capital (HCE, Modal Struktural / Structured Capital (SCE, Modal Kerja Capital Employed (CEE. Sedangkan variabel kinerja perusahaan sebagai variabel terikat adalah Return on Asset (ROA. Jenis data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah data sekunder yang bersumber dari laporan keuangan bank-bank yang diteliti. Adapun bank yang diteliti adalah bank umum milik pemerintah dan bank devisa swasta dengan aset lebih dari Rp. 50 triliun. Teknik analisis data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah analisis pooled regression analysis. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa Human Capital (HCE dan Capital Employed (CEE berdampak positif dan berpengaruh terhadap Return on Asset secara signifikan pada α = 5%. Variabel Structured Capital (SCE berdampak

  16. The time-varying correlation between policy uncertainty and stock returns: Evidence from China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiong, Xiong; Bian, Yuxiang; Shen, Dehua

    2018-06-01

    In this paper, we use a new policy uncertainty index to investigate the time-varying correlation between economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and Chinese stock market returns. The correlation is examined in the period from January 1995 to December 2016. We show that absolute changes in EPU have a significant impact on stock market returns. Specifically, empirical results based on the DCC-GARCH model reveal that the correlation between EPU and stock returns has large fluctuations, especially during a financial crisis; in addition, the impact of EPU on the Shanghai stock market is greater than on the Shenzhen stock market. Robustness results reveal that the impact of EPU on state-owned enterprises is larger than on non-state enterprises. All of these results highlight the important role of EPU in the Chinese stock market, and shed light on such issues for future research.

  17. Fundamental volatility and stock returns : does fundamental volatility explain stock returns?

    OpenAIRE

    Selboe, Guner K.; Virdee, Jaspal Singh

    2017-01-01

    In this thesis, we investigate whether the fundamental uncertainty can explain the crosssection of stock returns. To measure the fundamental uncertainty, we estimate rolling standard deviations and accounting betas of four different fundamentals: revenues, gross profit, earnings and cash flows. The standard deviation and the beta of revenues significantly explain returns in the Fama-Macbeth procedure, but only appears significant among smaller stocks in the portfolio formation ...

  18. The Relationship between Market Sentiment Index and Stock Rates of Return: a Panel Data Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudia Emiko Yoshinaga

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available This article analyzes the relationship between market sentiment and future stock rates of return. We used amethodology based on principal component analysis to create a sentiment index for the Brazilian market withdata from 1999 to 2008. The sample consisted of companies listed on BM&FBOVESPA which were groupedinto quintiles, each representing a portfolio, according to the magnitude of the following characteristics: marketvalue, total annualized risk and listing time on BM&FBOVESPA. Next, we calculated the average return of eachportfolio for every quarter. The data for the first and last quintiles were analyzed via two-factor ANOVA, usingsentiment index of the previous period (positive or negative as the main factor and each characteristic ascontrolling factors. Finally, the sentiment index was included in a panel data pricing model. The results indicatea significant and negative relationship between the market sentiment index and the future rates of return. Thesefindings suggest the existence of a reversion pattern in stock returns, meaning that after a positive sentimentperiod, the impact on subsequent stock returns is negative, and vice-versa.

  19. Long-range dependence in returns and volatility of global gold market amid financial crises

    Science.gov (United States)

    Omane-Adjepong, Maurice; Boako, Gideon

    2017-04-01

    Using sampled historical daily gold market data from 07-03-1985 to 06-01-2015, and building on a related work by Bentes (2016), this paper examines the presence of long-range dependence (LRD) in the world's gold market returns and volatility, accounting for structural breaks. The sampled gold market data was divided into subsamples based on four global crises: the September 1992 collapse of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM), the Asian financial crisis of mid-1997, the Subprime meltdown of 2007, and the recent European sovereign debt crisis, which hit the world's market with varying effects. LRD test was carried-out on the full-sample and subsample periods using three semiparametric methods-before and after adjusting for structural breaks. The results show insignificant evidence of LRD in gold returns. However, very diminutive evidence is found for periods characterized by financial/economic shocks, with no significant detections for post-shock periods. Collectively, this is indicative that the gold market is less speculative, and hence could be somehow less risky for hedging and portfolio diversification.

  20. An Empirical Research on Returns to Education of Disabled People during the Process of Modernization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan Liao

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Education is one of the most important ways to form human capital. Individual can get profit from investment in human capital. Although education situation of the disabled is getting better slowly during the process of modernization, the study of return to education of disabled has been largely ignored for many years. Furthermore, there are still a number of challenges need to pay more attention. This paper based on CHNS data in the economic transition period using Mincer Equation to study the returns to education in the disabled people in China. The results show that the education level has significant positive relationship with the rate of return to education; Return to education of the disabled is lower than non-disabled and male higher than female. The paper suggested more special education supply are required, female disabled people should be pay more attention especially on their education.

  1. Effects of spaceflight on rhesus quadrupedal locomotion after return to 1G

    Science.gov (United States)

    Recktenwald, M. R.; Hodgson, J. A.; Roy, R. R.; Riazanski, S.; McCall, G. E.; Kozlovskaya, I.; Washburn, D. A.; Fanton, J. W.; Edgerton, V. R.; Rumbaugh, D. M. (Principal Investigator)

    1999-01-01

    Effects of spaceflight on Rhesus quadrupedal locomotion after return to 1G. Locomotor performance, activation patterns of the soleus (Sol), medial gastrocnemius (MG), vastus lateralis (VL), and tibialis anterior (TA) and MG tendon force during quadrupedal stepping were studied in adult Rhesus before and after 14 days of either spaceflight (n = 2) or flight simulation at 1G (n = 3). Flight simulation involved duplication of the spaceflight conditions and experimental protocol in a 1G environment. Postflight, but not postsimulation, electromyographic (EMG) recordings revealed clonus-like activity in all muscles. Compared with preflight, the cycle period and burst durations of the primary extensors (Sol, MG, and VL) tended to decrease postflight. These decreases were associated with shorter steps. The flexor (TA) EMG burst duration postflight was similar to preflight, whereas the burst amplitude was elevated. Consequently, the Sol:TA and MG:TA EMG amplitude ratios were lower following flight, reflecting a "flexor bias." Together, these alterations in mean EMG amplitudes reflect differential adaptations in motor-unit recruitment patterns of flexors and extensors as well as fast and slow motor pools. Shorter cycle period and burst durations persisted throughout the 20-day postflight testing period, whereas mean EMG returned to preflight levels by 17 days postflight. Compared with presimulation, the simulation group showed slight increases in the cycle period and burst durations of all muscles. Mean EMG amplitude decreased in the Sol, increased in the MG and VL, and was unchanged in the TA. Thus adaptations observed postsimulation were different from those observed postflight, indicating that there was a response unique to the microgravity environment, i.e., the modulations in the nervous system controlling locomotion cannot merely be attributed to restriction of movement but appear to be the result of changes in the interpretation of load-related proprioceptive feedback

  2. Classifying Returns as Extreme

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Charlotte

    2014-01-01

    I consider extreme returns for the stock and bond markets of 14 EU countries using two classification schemes: One, the univariate classification scheme from the previous literature that classifies extreme returns for each market separately, and two, a novel multivariate classification scheme tha...

  3. [Knowledge of Man Returns: Some Considerations on Spirituality and Resilience].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumakura, Nobuhiro

    2015-01-01

    Over the last decade,"spirituality" and "resilience" have jointly become a topic in psychiatry. The aim of this paper is to discuss the future of psychiatry suggested by this topic. It may be related to what Jaspers, K. called "Knowledge of Man (die Erkenntnis des Menschen)". Knowledge of man in psychiatry can be learned only through clinical experince: e. g., clinical observations and case studies. Modern academic psychiatry seems to be suffering a loss of knowledge of man, which returns periodically in clinical practice. Hence, I will call the re-discovery of the topic in psychiatry as "Return of Man". Since WW II, there have been three eras in which psychiatrists showed deep concern regarding knowledge of man. Firstly, psychopathology and psychotherapy widely developed, when the destructive impulses of mankind were revealed in the nuclear weapons of WW II. Secondly, in the 1970's, the reforms of psychiatric services and legal systems took place somewhat successfully, when social reforms were concerns of the younger generations. Lastly, over the last decade, the topic again returned as spirituality and resilience, when scientists seemed to be powerless in the aftermath of the West Japan Earthquake. Regarding the definition of health made by the WHO in 1946, I further discuss that "Return of Man" in psychiatry is the necessary dynamism between negative and positive health, or between disease control and health promotion. There is an underlying dynamism between "Knowledge of Man" and natural sciences, which is constantly changing. So long as any theory can exist only as a part of dynamism, the Return of Man may re-surface whenever clinical theories do not fit with clinical realities.

  4. Evolution of periodicity in periodical cicadas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ito, Hiromu; Kakishima, Satoshi; Uehara, Takashi; Morita, Satoru; Koyama, Takuya; Sota, Teiji; Cooley, John R; Yoshimura, Jin

    2015-09-14

    Periodical cicadas (Magicicada spp.) in the USA are famous for their unique prime-numbered life cycles of 13 and 17 years and their nearly perfectly synchronized mass emergences. Because almost all known species of cicada are non-periodical, periodicity is assumed to be a derived state. A leading hypothesis for the evolution of periodicity in Magicicada implicates the decline in average temperature during glacial periods. During the evolution of periodicity, the determinant of maturation in ancestral cicadas is hypothesized to have switched from size dependence to time (period) dependence. The selection for the prime-numbered cycles should have taken place only after the fixation of periodicity. Here, we build an individual-based model of cicadas under conditions of climatic cooling to explore the fixation of periodicity. In our model, under cold environments, extremely long juvenile stages lead to extremely low adult densities, limiting mating opportunities and favouring the evolution of synchronized emergence. Our results indicate that these changes, which were triggered by glacial cooling, could have led to the fixation of periodicity in the non-periodical ancestors.

  5. Corporate governance and performance of Turkish banks in the pre- and post-crisis periods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Dilvin Taşkin

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to analyze the relationship between corporate governance and bank performance. Return on asset (ROA, return on equity (ROE and net interest margin (NIM is considered as the measures of bank performance. Corporate governance is determined through the measures of internal governance mechanism which is measured by CEO duality and external governance mechanisms which are proxied by discipline exerted by shareholders, creditors and educated personnel and bank ownership. The analysis covers the period 1990-2000 and 2002-2011 which are the pre and post periods of the severe 2001 banking crisis. The results show that different governance characteristics are important in the pre and post crisis periods.

  6. Relationship between Gold and Oil Prices and Stock Market Returns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Mansoor Baig

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available This study objective to examine the relationship between gold prices, oil prices and KSE100 return. This study important for the investor whose want to invest in real assets and financial assets. This study helps investor to achieve the portfolio diversification. This study uses the monthly data of gold prices, KSE100, and oil prices for the period of 2000 to 2010 (monthly. This study applied Descriptive statistics, Augmented Dickey Fuller test Phillip Perron test, Johansen and Jelseluis Co-integration test, Variance Decomposition test to find relationship. This study concludes that Gold prices growth, Oil prices growth and KSE100 return have no significant relationship in the long run. This study provides information to the investors who want to get the benefit of diversification by investing in Gold, Oil and stock market. In the current era Gold prices and oil prices are fluctuating day by day and investors think that stock returns may or may not affected by these fluctuations. This study is unique because it focuses on current issues and takes the current data in this research to help the investment institutions or portfolio managers.

  7. Estimating investor preferences towards portfolio return distribution in investment funds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Margareta Gardijan

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Recent research in the field of investor preference has emphasised the need to go beyond just simply analyzing the first two moments of a portfolio return distribution used in a MV (mean-variance paradigm. The suggestion is to observe an investor's utility function as an nth order Taylor approximation. In such terms, the assumption is that investors prefer greater values of odd and smaller values of even moments. In order to investigate the preferences of Croatian investment funds, an analysis of the moments of their return distribution is conducted. The sample contains data on monthly returns of 30 investment funds in Croatia for the period from January 1999 to May 2014. Using the theoretical utility functions (DARA, CARA, CRRA, we compare changes in their preferences when higher moments are included. Moreover, we investigate an extension of the CAPM model in order to find out whether including higher moments can explain better the relationship between the awards and risk premium, and whether we can apply these findings to estimate preferences of Croatian institutional investors. The results indicate that Croatian institutional investors do not seek compensation for bearing greater market risk.

  8. Arthroscopic Shoulder Surgery in Female Professional Tennis Players: Ability and Timing to Return to Play.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, Simon W; Dakic, Jodie; Stroia, Kathleen; Nguyen, Michael L; Safran, Marc R

    2017-07-01

    To assess the outcome and time to return to previous level of competitive play after shoulder surgery in professional tennis players. Retrospective case series. Tertiary academic centre. The records of all female tennis players on the Women's Tennis Association (WTA) professional circuit between January 2008 and June 2010 were reviewed to identify players who underwent shoulder surgery on their dominant (serving) shoulder. Primary outcomes were the ability and time to return to professional play and if they were able to return to their previous level of function as determined by singles ranking. Preoperative and postoperative singles rankings were used to determine rate and completeness of return to preoperative function. During the study period, 8 professional women tennis players from the WTA tour underwent shoulder surgery on their dominant arm. Indications included rotator cuff debridement or repair, labral reconstruction for instability or superior labral anterior posterior lesion, and neurolysis of the suprascapular nerve. Seven players (88%) returned to professional play. The mean time to return to play was 7 months after surgery. However, only 25% (2 of 8) players achieved their preinjury singles rank or better by 18 months postoperatively. In total, 4 players returned to their preinjury singles ranking, with their peak singles ranking being attained at a mean of 2.4 years postoperatively. In professional female tennis players, a high return to play rate after arthroscopic shoulder surgery is associated with a prolonged and often incomplete return to previous level of performance. Thus, counseling the patient to this fact is important to manage expectations. Level IV-Case Series.

  9. The Asymmetric Impulse of the Sunshine Effect on Stock Returns and Volatilities

    OpenAIRE

    Yuan-Ming Lee; Kuan-Min Wang

    2010-01-01

    This study constructs a variety of GARCH models with the consideration of the generalized error distribution to analyze the relationship between the cloud cover and stock returns in Taiwan in the whole sample period (1986 to 2007) and in the two sub-sample periods (1986 to 1996 and 1997 to 2007). The data include Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index and the U.S. Dow Jones Industrial Average index to proxy the impact of U.S. stock market on Taiwan’s stock market performanc...

  10. Do Human Arts Really Offer a Lower Return to Education?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dalgaard, Carl-Johan Lars; Sørensen, Anders; Schultz, Esben

    of women in their high school. Conditional on high school fixed effects, these  characteristics are unlikely to affect post-university wages and are plausible instruments for the  educational choice. Our 2SLS estimates reveal that the gap in returns to education is negligible, implying that the wage gap...

  11. A Follow-up Study of Returning Students--A Concentration on Women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plotsky, Frances; Ohm, Susan

    The office of Services for Returning Students (SRS) at the University of Texas (U.T.) at Austin conducted a follow-up study of men and women students who had visited the office from February 1969 to the end of 1971. The study ascertained the average interval between periods of formal education, the fulfillment of educational goals, and the use of…

  12. VARIABILITAS RETURN SAHAM DI SEKITAR PENGUMUMAN PERGANTIAN CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER

    OpenAIRE

    Setiawan, Doddy

    2015-01-01

    The research aims at examining market reaction to CEO turnover announcements.The samples of the research consist of 59 CEO turnover announcements during 1992-2003periods. The author use security returns variance to examine information content of CEOturnover announcement. Friedman and Singh (1989) argue that contextual factorsmoderating the market reaction to the CEO turnover announcements. Therefore the authorconsidering two factors: the succession process and the origin of incoming CEO. The ...

  13. Variabilitas Return Saham di Sekitar Pengumuman Pergantian Chief Executive Officer

    OpenAIRE

    Setiawan, Doddy

    2007-01-01

    The research aims at examining market reaction to CEO turnover announcements.The samples of the research consist of 59 CEO turnover announcements during 1992-2003periods. The author use security returns variance to examine information content of CEOturnover announcement. Friedman and Singh (1989) argue that contextual factorsmoderating the market reaction to the CEO turnover announcements. Therefore the authorconsidering two factors: the succession process and the origin of incoming CEO. The ...

  14. Longer Nature-Based Rehabilitation May Contribute to a Faster Return to Work in Patients with Reactions to Severe Stress and/or Depression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grahn, Patrik; Pálsdóttir, Anna María; Ottosson, Johan; Jonsdottir, Ingibjörg H

    2017-10-27

    The global burden of depression and stress-related mental disorders is substantial, and constitutes a major need for effective rehabilitation. Can nature-based rehabilitation help people return to work? To study if the length of a nature-based rehabilitation program affects the outcome with regard to return to work one year after the onset of the program, in a group of patients with long-term reactions to severe stress and/or depression. A prospective, quasi-experimental study comparing results from 8-, 12-, and 24-week periods of rehabilitation. The rehabilitation of 106 participants was carried out by a multimodal rehabilitation team in a specially designed rehabilitation garden. Return to work data were collected before the intervention and one year after the start of rehabilitation. In addition, data were collected regarding self-assessed occupational competence, personal control, and sense of coherence. As many as 68% of the participants returned to work or participated in job training or work-oriented measures, full- or part-time, after one year. Participants with a longer period of rehabilitation reported better results on occupational competence, and were more likely to participate in paid work, full-time or part-time, one year after rehabilitation. Study outcomes indicate that a longer rehabilitation period in a rehabilitation garden increases the possibility of a return to paid work.

  15. Longer Nature-Based Rehabilitation May Contribute to a Faster Return to Work in Patients with Reactions to Severe Stress and/or Depression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grahn, Patrik; Pálsdóttir, Anna María; Ottosson, Johan; Jonsdottir, Ingibjörg H.

    2017-01-01

    The global burden of depression and stress-related mental disorders is substantial, and constitutes a major need for effective rehabilitation. Can nature-based rehabilitation help people return to work? Objective: To study if the length of a nature-based rehabilitation program affects the outcome with regard to return to work one year after the onset of the program, in a group of patients with long-term reactions to severe stress and/or depression. Methods: A prospective, quasi-experimental study comparing results from 8-, 12-, and 24-week periods of rehabilitation. The rehabilitation of 106 participants was carried out by a multimodal rehabilitation team in a specially designed rehabilitation garden. Return to work data were collected before the intervention and one year after the start of rehabilitation. In addition, data were collected regarding self-assessed occupational competence, personal control, and sense of coherence. As many as 68% of the participants returned to work or participated in job training or work-oriented measures, full- or part-time, after one year. Participants with a longer period of rehabilitation reported better results on occupational competence, and were more likely to participate in paid work, full-time or part-time, one year after rehabilitation. Study outcomes indicate that a longer rehabilitation period in a rehabilitation garden increases the possibility of a return to paid work. PMID:29076997

  16. Longer Nature-Based Rehabilitation May Contribute to a Faster Return to Work in Patients with Reactions to Severe Stress and/or Depression

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrik Grahn

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The global burden of depression and stress-related mental disorders is substantial, and constitutes a major need for effective rehabilitation. Can nature-based rehabilitation help people return to work? Objective: To study if the length of a nature-based rehabilitation program affects the outcome with regard to return to work one year after the onset of the program, in a group of patients with long-term reactions to severe stress and/or depression. Methods: A prospective, quasi-experimental study comparing results from 8-, 12-, and 24-week periods of rehabilitation. The rehabilitation of 106 participants was carried out by a multimodal rehabilitation team in a specially designed rehabilitation garden. Return to work data were collected before the intervention and one year after the start of rehabilitation. In addition, data were collected regarding self-assessed occupational competence, personal control, and sense of coherence. As many as 68% of the participants returned to work or participated in job training or work-oriented measures, full- or part-time, after one year. Participants with a longer period of rehabilitation reported better results on occupational competence, and were more likely to participate in paid work, full-time or part-time, one year after rehabilitation. Study outcomes indicate that a longer rehabilitation period in a rehabilitation garden increases the possibility of a return to paid work.

  17. QR-GARCH-M Model for Risk-Return Tradeoff in U.S. Stock Returns and Business Cycles

    OpenAIRE

    Nyberg, Henri

    2010-01-01

    In the empirical finance literature findings on the risk return tradeoff in excess stock market returns are ambiguous. In this study, we develop a new QR-GARCH-M model combining a probit model for a binary business cycle indicator and a regime switching GARCH-in-mean model for excess stock market return with the business cycle indicator defining the regime. Estimation results show that there is statistically significant variation in the U.S. excess stock returns over the business cycle. Howev...

  18. Change in muscle thickness under contracting conditions following return to sports after a hamstring muscle strain injury—A pilot study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yasuharu Nagano

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to measure the change in hamstring muscle thickness between contracting and relaxing conditions following a return to sports after a hamstring muscle strain and thereby evaluate muscle function. Six male track and field sprinters participated in this study. All had experienced a prior hamstring strain injury that required a minimum of 2 weeks away from sport participation. Transverse plane scans were performed at the following four points on the affected and unaffected sides under contracting and relaxing conditions: proximal biceps femoris long head, proximal semitendinosus, middle biceps femoris long head, and middle semitendinosus. The results demonstrated an increase in the thickness of the middle biceps femoris long head and middle semitendinosus regions on the unaffected side with contraction, whereas the affected side did not show a significant increase. The proximal semitendinosus muscle thickness was increased with contraction on both the unaffected and the affected sides. By contrast, the proximal biceps femoris muscle thickness did not show a significant increase on both sides. The results of this study show that evaluation of muscle thickness during contraction may be useful for assessing the change in muscle function after a hamstring muscle strain injury.

  19. Return migration: changing roles of men and women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sakka, D; Dikaiou, M; Kiosseoglou, G

    1999-01-01

    This article addresses changes in gender roles among returning migrant families. It focuses on Greek returnees from the Federal Republic of Germany and explores changes in task sharing behavior and gender role attitudes resulting from changes in the sociocultural environments. A group of return migrants was compared with a group of non-migrants, both living in villages in the District of Drama, Greece. Groups were interviewed to investigate the extent to which each spouse shared house tasks, as well as their attitudes towards sharing and gender role in the family. The t-test for independent samples was used to determine mean differences between the two groups. In addition to demographic variables, those concerning the "time lived abroad" and the "number of years in Greece" after return were inserted into a series of regression analyses. Findings showed that migrants' task sharing and gender role attitudes were influenced differently by the migration-repatriation experience and subsequent cultural alternation. Results also suggest that migrant couples either take on new patterns of behavior or maintain traditional ones only when these were congruent with the financial aims of the family or can be integrated into living conditions in Greece upon return. Furthermore, migrants seem to adopt a more "traditional" attitude than non-migrants toward the participation of women in family decision making. From the study, it is suggested that gender role change is an on-going process influenced by the migration-repatriation experience, as well the factors, which accompany movement between the two countries.

  20. 75 FR 76940 - Specified Tax Return Preparers Required To File Individual Income Tax Returns Using Magnetic...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-12-10

    ... DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY Internal Revenue Service 26 CFR Parts 1 and 301 [REG-100194-10] RIN 1545-BJ52 Specified Tax Return Preparers Required To File Individual Income Tax Returns Using Magnetic... for ``specified tax return prepares,''. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Keith L. Brau at (202) 622...

  1. Developing retention and return strategies for South African advanced life support paramedics: A qualitative study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kevin Govender

    2013-06-01

    Results and discussion: Findings suggest that the success of retention and return strategies depends on the degree of collaborative stewardship that must exist between the SA National and Provincial Department of Health, the Emergency Medical Service/s (EMS statutory governing body, training institutions, and private and public EMS providers. In addition, the constructs of return and retention strategies have to extend as far as revising both acceptance criteria and candidate recruitment policies. Furthermore, while particular attention must be placed on improving working conditions, security, and remuneration of ALS paramedics, return and retention strategies have to be continuously monitored, and updated.

  2. Time trend analysis of return to work after stroke in Denmark 1996-2006

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hannerz, Harald; Mortensen, Ole S; Poulsen, Otto M

    2012-01-01

    In the period 1997-2005, the Danish government initiated a series of legislative changes aimed at facilitating RTW (return to work) in the Danish population. In the present study, we investigated the odds of being gainfully occupied ca. two years after stroke as a function of onset calendar year,...

  3. KOMPARASI CAPITAL ASSET PRICING MODEL VERSUS ARBITRAGE PRICING THEORY MODEL ATAS VOLATILITAS RETURN SAHAM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mathius Tandiontong

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Investing in the stock market is one option for investors. Investment in ordinary shares was classified as longterminvestments to be able to provide added value and the risk for fixed income. This study focused on thedifference of APTM versus CAPM, and it also focused on the sensitivity of the APTM on the stock returns. Thisstudy was based on the assumption that: there were differences in sectoral stock return volatility, volatility ofmarket risk factors, and macroeconomic risks affecting sectoral differences in the sensitivity of stock returns;there were differences in the results of testing the validity, robustness unconditional CAPM and APTMmultifactorial; and time-varying volatility referring to the phenomena of structural breaks and asymmetriceffect. The method of analysis used nested models with panel data. Data were analyzed by using secondary datafrom 2005-2012. The results of this study concluded that: there was no different sensitivity of stock returnsacross sectors, but there was different insensitivity between systematic risk factors, CAPM and APTM multifactorthat showed the inconsistency of the sectoral shares, but the proven model of unconditional CAPM wasvalid; the difference of factor risk premiums was as a result of the structural break, the financial crisis period of2008 within the period 2005-2012.

  4. Effect of Temperature Shock and Inventory Surprises on Natural Gas and Heating Oil Futures Returns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, John Wei-Shan; Lin, Chien-Yu

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to examine the impact of temperature shock on both near-month and far-month natural gas and heating oil futures returns by extending the weather and storage models of the previous study. Several notable findings from the empirical studies are presented. First, the expected temperature shock significantly and positively affects both the near-month and far-month natural gas and heating oil futures returns. Next, significant temperature shock has effect on both the conditional mean and volatility of natural gas and heating oil prices. The results indicate that expected inventory surprises significantly and negatively affects the far-month natural gas futures returns. Moreover, volatility of natural gas futures returns is higher on Thursdays and that of near-month heating oil futures returns is higher on Wednesdays than other days. Finally, it is found that storage announcement for natural gas significantly affects near-month and far-month natural gas futures returns. Furthermore, both natural gas and heating oil futures returns are affected more by the weighted average temperature reported by multiple weather reporting stations than that reported by a single weather reporting station. PMID:25133233

  5. Comparing different error-conditions in film dosemeter evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roed, H.; Figel, M.

    2007-01-01

    In the evaluation of a film used as a personal dosemeter it may be necessary to mark the dosemeters when possible error-conditions are recognised, such as errors that have an influence on the ability to make a correct evaluation of the dose value. In this project a comparison has been carried out to examine how two individual monitoring services, IMS [National Inst. of Radiation Hygiene (Denmark) (NIRH) and National Research Centre for Environment and Health (Germany) (GSF)], from two different EU countries mark their dosemeters. The IMS are different in size, type of customers and issuing period, but both use films as their primary dosemeters. The error-conditions examined are dosemeters exposed to moisture or light, contaminated dosemeters, films exposed outside the badge, missing filters in the badge, films inserted incorrectly in the badge and dosemeters not returned or returned too late to the IMS. The data are collected for the year 2003 where NIRH evaluated ∼50,000 and GSF ∼1.4 million film dosemeters. The percentage of film dosemeters is calculated for each error-condition as well as the distribution among eight different employee categories, i.e. medicine, nuclear medicine, nuclear industry, industry, radiography, laboratories, veterinary and others. It turned out, that incorrect insertion of the film in the badge was the most common error-condition observed at both IMS and that veterinarians, as the employee category, generally have the highest number of errors. NIRH has a significantly higher relative number of dosemeters in most error-conditions than GSF, which perhaps reflects that a comparison is difficult due to different systemic and methodical differences between the IMS and countries, e.g. regulations and monitoring programs etc. Also the non-existence of a common categorisation method for employee categories contributes to make a comparison like this difficult. (authors)

  6. The point of no return: A fundamental limit on the ability to control thought and action.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Logan, Gordon D

    2015-01-01

    Bartlett (1958. Thinking. New York: Basic Books) described the point of no return as a point of irrevocable commitment to action, which was preceded by a period of gradually increasing commitment. As such, the point of no return reflects a fundamental limit on the ability to control thought and action. I review the literature on the point of no return, taking three perspectives. First, I consider the point of no return from the perspective of the controlled act, as a locus in the architecture and anatomy of the underlying processes. I review experiments from the stop-signal paradigm that suggest that the point of no return is located late in the response system. Then I consider the point of no return from the perspective of the act of control that tries to change the controlled act before it becomes irrevocable. From this perspective, the point of no return is a point in time that provides enough "lead time" for the act of control to take effect. I review experiments that measure the response time to the stop signal as the lead time required for response inhibition in the stop-signal paradigm. Finally, I consider the point of no return in hierarchically controlled tasks, in which there may be many points of no return at different levels of the hierarchy. I review experiments on skilled typing that suggest different points of no return for the commands that determine what is typed and the countermands that inhibit typing, with increasing commitment to action the lower the level in the hierarchy. I end by considering the point of no return in perception and thought as well as action.

  7. Retailer’s replenishment policies under conditions of permissible delay in payments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huang Yung-Fu

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Goyal (1985 is frequently cited when the inventory systems under conditions of permissible delay in payments are discussed. Goyal implicitly assumed that: 1. The unit selling price and the unit purchasing price are equal; 2. At the end of the credit period, the account is settled. The retailer starts paying for higher interest charges on the items in stock and returns money of the remaining balance immediately when the items are sold. But these assumptions are debatable in real-life situations. The main purpose of this paper is to modify Goyal’s model to allow the unit selling price and the unit purchasing price not necessarily be equal to reflect the real-life situations. Furthermore, this paper will adopt different payment rule. We assume that the retailer uses sales revenue during the permissible credit period to make payment to the supplier at the end of the credit period. If it is not enough to pay off the purchasing cost of all items, the retailer will pay off the remaining balance by taking loan from the bank. So, the retailer starts paying for the interest charges on the amount of loan from the bank after the account is settled. Then the retailer will return money to the bank at the end of the inventory cycle. Under these conditions, we model the retailer’s inventory system as a cost minimization problem to determine the retailer’s optimal cycle time and optimal order quantity. Four cases are developed to efficiently determine the optimal cycle time and the optimal order quantity. Numerical examples are given to illustrate these cases. Comparing with Goyal’s model, we also find that the optimal cycle times in this paper are not longer than those of Goyal’s model.

  8. ASYMMETRY OF MARKET RETURNS AND THE MEAN VARIANCE FRONTIER

    OpenAIRE

    SENGUPTA, Jati K.; PARK, Hyung S.

    1994-01-01

    The hypothesis that the skewness and asymmetry have no significant impact on the mean variance frontier is found to be strongly violated by monthly U.S. data over the period January 1965 through December 1974. This result raises serious doubts whether the common market portifolios such as SP 500, value weighted and equal weighted returns can serve as suitable proxies for meanvariance efficient portfolios in the CAPM framework. A new test for assessing the impact of skewness on the variance fr...

  9. Scalability of a Methodology for Generating Technical Trading Rules with GAPs Based on Risk-Return Adjustment and Incremental Training

    Science.gov (United States)

    de La Cal, E. A.; Fernández, E. M.; Quiroga, R.; Villar, J. R.; Sedano, J.

    In previous works a methodology was defined, based on the design of a genetic algorithm GAP and an incremental training technique adapted to the learning of series of stock market values. The GAP technique consists in a fusion of GP and GA. The GAP algorithm implements the automatic search for crisp trading rules taking as objectives of the training both the optimization of the return obtained and the minimization of the assumed risk. Applying the proposed methodology, rules have been obtained for a period of eight years of the S&P500 index. The achieved adjustment of the relation return-risk has generated rules with returns very superior in the testing period to those obtained applying habitual methodologies and even clearly superior to Buy&Hold. This work probes that the proposed methodology is valid for different assets in a different market than previous work.

  10. Foreign currency returns and systematic risks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Galsband, V.; Nitschka, T.

    2015-01-01

    We apply an empirical approximation of the intertemporal capital asset pricing model (ICAPM) to show that cross-sectional dispersion in currency returns can be rationalized by differences in currency excess returns' sensitivities to the market return's cash-flow news component. This finding echoes

  11. BID-ASK SPREAD DAN PERIODE KEPEMILIKAN SAHAM PADA PERUSAHAAN LQ-45

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vinus Maulina

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Global crisis gives quite big impact to the Indonesian Stock Exchange and also changes the investor behavior as well. Fundamental exchange which is considered fragile becomes instability threat and reflects uncertain condition. This research aims to analyze and explain empirically the impact of variance return, trading volume, stock prices and return shares toward bid-ask spread which is the measurement of asymmetrical information cost, also the impact of variance return, market value, bid-ask spread and dividend pay out towards common shares holding periods in Indonesia Stock Exchange and some dominant variable that affect them.The findings of this research strengthen the presumption that in conducting the investment, investors in Indonesian Stock Exchange is more oriented to short term investment by expecting more on common shares than dividend. Most investors keep their ownership in common shares in Indonesian Stock Exchange for two years. Besides, the efficient investment strategy which optimizes profit is “switching strategy”, following the market movement every time exactly, using technical information to active shares by moving from the shares that the price is predicted to decline to the increased ones. Moreover, the researcher also got the evidence that the investors in Indonesian capital market conduct their investment irrationally, investor’s analysis is getting technical and gives less attention to the fundamental factors. The decision of selling and buying which is conducted by the investors on common shares is based on the trading activity, that is actually a measurement of the scale of asymmetry information.

  12. Reabsorption of returning workers from the Gulf: the Asian experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kazi, S

    1994-01-01

    This study examines trends in return labor migration from the Middle East to South Asia and Southeast Asia. Survey data were used to describe trends in outmigration and socioeconomic characteristics of return migrants and to examine the extent to which return migration is associated with skill level and use of savings and remittances on their return. General trends indicate a decline in outmigration during the late 1980s and early 1990s, after oil prices dropped in 1986. Migrants from Pakistan and Korea declined by half during 1981-85 and by 40% among Indian migrants. The demand for service workers and migrants willing to accept cuts in wages was unaffected. Outmigration from Southeast Asian countries grew in the recent past. These increases were due to the replacement of workers from Jordan and Yemen who were expelled from Saudi Arabia after the Gulf crisis. The shift in occupational demand to service and higher level workers is expected to weaken migration from Pakistan and Bangladesh and to strengthen migration from Sri Lanka and other Southeast Asian countries with a skilled migrant labor force. Outmigration from Southeast Asian countries increased to high-growth destination countries such as Japan, Malaysia, and Singapore. Socioeconomic characteristics of migrants varied by country of origin. For instance, Philippine migrants were better educated. Migrants from Thailand, Bangladesh, and Pakistan were from rural and impoverished areas. Sri Lanka and the Philippines had many women migrants. Return migrants encountered high unemployment. Return migrants to Korea had fewer reemployment problems. Reemployment was associated with local country conditions. Unskilled workers had the highest rates of unemployment. Savings tended to be invested in real estate and housing. Savings and investment from remittance income was high in Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and Thailand.

  13. Modelling Changes in the Unconditional Variance of Long Stock Return Series

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Amado, Cristina; Teräsvirta, Timo

    In this paper we develop a testing and modelling procedure for describing the long-term volatility movements over very long return series. For the purpose, we assume that volatility is multiplicatively decomposed into a conditional and an unconditional component as in Amado and Teräsvirta (2011...... show that the long-memory property in volatility may be explained by ignored changes in the unconditional variance of the long series. Finally, based on a formal statistical test we find evidence of the superiority of volatility forecast accuracy of the new model over the GJR-GARCH model at all...... horizons for a subset of the long return series....

  14. Modelling changes in the unconditional variance of long stock return series

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Amado, Cristina; Teräsvirta, Timo

    2014-01-01

    In this paper we develop a testing and modelling procedure for describing the long-term volatility movements over very long daily return series. For this purpose we assume that volatility is multiplicatively decomposed into a conditional and an unconditional component as in Amado and Teräsvirta...... that the apparent long memory property in volatility may be interpreted as changes in the unconditional variance of the long series. Finally, based on a formal statistical test we find evidence of the superiority of volatility forecasting accuracy of the new model over the GJR-GARCH model at all horizons for eight...... subsets of the long return series....

  15. Unemployment, Investment and Global Expected Returns: A Panel FAVAR Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Ron Smith; Gylfi Zoega

    2005-01-01

    We consider the hypothesis that a common factor, global expected returns, drives unemployment and investment in 21 OECD countries over the period 1960-2002. We investigate this hypothesis using a panel-factor augmented-vector autoregression (FAVAR). We first estimate the common factors of unemployment and investment by principal components and show that the first principal component of unemployment is almost identical to that of investment and that they both show the pattern one would expect ...

  16. Returns Effect, Shocks and Volatility Transmission between Foreign Exchange-Stock Markets in Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Agya Atabani Adi

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The paper examined effect of passed return on current return, shocks spillover and volatility transmission between FX-Stock markets. Using result obtained from VAR-GARCH models, we also calculate the optimal weight and risk minimizing hedging ratio for FX-Stock markets and employed the newly developed bivariate GARCH framework Findings reveal evidence of short term predictability in both markets through time. One period lagged returns significantly impact current return in both markets, and impact was greater in FX market both VAR-GARCH and VAR-AGARCH models. There were evidence of bi-directional volatility transmission in both markets and uni-directional shocks spillover from stock to FX market in both models. VAR-AGARCH model showed evidence of leverage effect; bad news has more impact on volatility than positive news of the same magnitude. We showed that optimal polio of FX-Stock market should holds more foreign exchange to stocks in their asset polio. Our result showed evidence of effective hedging in FX-Stock markets in Nigerian. Hence, the inclusion of stocks in diversified polio of foreign exchange could improve it risks adjusted performance of hedging ratio.

  17. Measurement of Vehicle Air Conditioning Pull-Down Period

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thomas, John F [ORNL; Huff, Shean P [ORNL; Moore, Larry G [ORNL; West, Brian H [ORNL

    2016-08-01

    Air conditioner usage was characterized for high heat-load summer conditions during short driving trips using a 2009 Ford Explorer and a 2009 Toyota Corolla. Vehicles were parked in the sun with windows closed to allow the cabin to become hot. Experiments were conducted by entering the instrumented vehicles in this heated condition and driving on-road with the windows up and the air conditioning set to maximum cooling, maximum fan speed and the air flow setting to recirculate cabin air rather than pull in outside humid air. The main purpose was to determine the length of time the air conditioner system would remain at or very near maximum cooling power under these severe-duty conditions. Because of the variable and somewhat uncontrolled nature of the experiments, they serve only to show that for short vehicle trips, air conditioning can remain near or at full cooling capacity for 10-minutes or significantly longer and the cabin may be uncomfortably warm during much of this time.

  18. Stock return distribution in the BRICS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George Adu

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Stock returns in emerging market economies exhibit patterns that are distinctively different from developed countries: returns are noted to be highly volatile and autocorrelated, and long horizon returns are predictable. While these stylized facts are well established, the assumption underlying the distribution of returns is less understood. In particular, the empirical literature continues to rely on the normality assumption as a starting point, and most asset pricing models tend to overstretch this point. This paper questions the rationale behind this supposition and proceeds to test more formally for normality using multivariate joint test for skewness and kurtosis. Additionally, the paper extends the literature by examining a number of empirical regularities for Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (the BRICS for short. Our main findings are that the distribution of stock returns for the BRICS exhibits peakedness with fatter and longer tails, and this is invariant to both the unit of measurement and the time horizon of returns. Volatility clustering is prevalent in all markets, and this decays exponentially for all but Brazil. The relationship between risk and return is found to be significant and risk premiums are prevalent in our sample.

  19. Tongues of periodicity in a family of two-dimensional discontinuous maps of real Moebius type

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sushko, Iryna; Gardini, Laura; Puu, Toenu

    2004-01-01

    In this paper we consider a two-dimensional piecewise-smooth discontinuous map representing the so-called 'relative dynamics' of an Hicksian business cycle model. The main features of the dynamics occur in the parameter region in which no fixed points at finite distance exist, but we may have attracting cycles of any periods. The bifurcations associated with the periodicity tongues of the map are studied making use of the first-return map on a suitable segment of the phase plane. The bifurcation curves bounding the periodicity tongues in the parameter plane are related with saddle-node and border-collision bifurcations of the first-return map. Moreover, the particular 'sausages structure' of the bifurcation tongues is also explained

  20. Return Migrants’ Experience of Access to Care in Corrupt Healthcare Systems: The Bosnian Example

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Line Neerup Handlos

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Equal and universal access to healthcare services is a core priority for a just health system. A key societal determinant seen to create inequality in access to healthcare is corruption in the healthcare system. How return migrants’ access to healthcare is affected by corruption is largely unstudied, even though return migrants may be particularly vulnerable to problems related to corruption due to their period of absence from their country of origin. This article investigates how corruption in the healthcare sector affects access to healthcare for refugees who repatriated to Bosnia, a country with a high level of corruption, from Denmark, a country with a low level of corruption. The study is based on 18 semi-structured interviews with 33 refugees who returned after long-term residence in Denmark. We found that the returned refugees faced greater problems with corruption than was the case for those who had not left the country, as doctors considered them to be better endowed financially and therefore demanded larger bribes from them than they did from those who had remained in Bosnia. Moreover, during their stay abroad the returnees had lost the connections that could have helped them sidestep the corruption. Returned refugees are thus particularly vulnerable to the effects of corruption.

  1. Return Migrants’ Experience of Access to Care in Corrupt Healthcare Systems: The Bosnian Example

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neerup Handlos, Line; Fog Olwig, Karen; Bygbjerg, Ib Christian; Norredam, Marie

    2016-01-01

    Equal and universal access to healthcare services is a core priority for a just health system. A key societal determinant seen to create inequality in access to healthcare is corruption in the healthcare system. How return migrants’ access to healthcare is affected by corruption is largely unstudied, even though return migrants may be particularly vulnerable to problems related to corruption due to their period of absence from their country of origin. This article investigates how corruption in the healthcare sector affects access to healthcare for refugees who repatriated to Bosnia, a country with a high level of corruption, from Denmark, a country with a low level of corruption. The study is based on 18 semi-structured interviews with 33 refugees who returned after long-term residence in Denmark. We found that the returned refugees faced greater problems with corruption than was the case for those who had not left the country, as doctors considered them to be better endowed financially and therefore demanded larger bribes from them than they did from those who had remained in Bosnia. Moreover, during their stay abroad the returnees had lost the connections that could have helped them sidestep the corruption. Returned refugees are thus particularly vulnerable to the effects of corruption. PMID:27657096

  2. Return Migrants' Experience of Access to Care in Corrupt Healthcare Systems: The Bosnian Example.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neerup Handlos, Line; Fog Olwig, Karen; Bygbjerg, Ib Christian; Norredam, Marie

    2016-09-19

    Equal and universal access to healthcare services is a core priority for a just health system. A key societal determinant seen to create inequality in access to healthcare is corruption in the healthcare system. How return migrants' access to healthcare is affected by corruption is largely unstudied, even though return migrants may be particularly vulnerable to problems related to corruption due to their period of absence from their country of origin. This article investigates how corruption in the healthcare sector affects access to healthcare for refugees who repatriated to Bosnia, a country with a high level of corruption, from Denmark, a country with a low level of corruption. The study is based on 18 semi-structured interviews with 33 refugees who returned after long-term residence in Denmark. We found that the returned refugees faced greater problems with corruption than was the case for those who had not left the country, as doctors considered them to be better endowed financially and therefore demanded larger bribes from them than they did from those who had remained in Bosnia. Moreover, during their stay abroad the returnees had lost the connections that could have helped them sidestep the corruption. Returned refugees are thus particularly vulnerable to the effects of corruption.

  3. Calculating the return on investment of mobile healthcare.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oriol, Nancy E; Cote, Paul J; Vavasis, Anthony P; Bennet, Jennifer; Delorenzo, Darien; Blanc, Philip; Kohane, Isaac

    2009-06-02

    Mobile health clinics provide an alternative portal into the healthcare system for the medically disenfranchised, that is, people who are underinsured, uninsured or who are otherwise outside of mainstream healthcare due to issues of trust, language, immigration status or simply location. Mobile health clinics as providers of last resort are an essential component of the healthcare safety net providing prevention, screening, and appropriate triage into mainstream services. Despite the face value of providing services to underserved populations, a focused analysis of the relative value of the mobile health clinic model has not been elucidated. The question that the return on investment algorithm has been designed to answer is: can the value of the services provided by mobile health programs be quantified in terms of quality adjusted life years saved and estimated emergency department expenditures avoided? Using a sample mobile health clinic and published research that quantifies health outcomes, we developed and tested an algorithm to calculate the return on investment of a typical broad-service mobile health clinic: the relative value of mobile health clinic services = annual projected emergency department costs avoided + value of potential life years saved from the services provided. Return on investment ratio = the relative value of the mobile health clinic services/annual cost to run the mobile health clinic. Based on service data provided by The Family Van for 2008 we calculated the annual cost savings from preventing emergency room visits, $3,125,668 plus the relative value of providing 7 of the top 25 priority prevention services during the same period, US$17,780,000 for a total annual value of $20,339,968. Given that the annual cost to run the program was $567,700, the calculated return on investment of The Family Van was 36:1. By using published data that quantify the value of prevention practices and the value of preventing unnecessary use of emergency

  4. Effects of Corn Straw Returning and Nitrogen Fertilizer Application Methods on N2O Emission from Wheat Growing Season

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    XU Yu

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Based on a wheat field experiment, the effect of four treatments such as no-straw returning (SN, straw returning (SR, control release fertilizer application(SRC and nitrogen drilling(SRR on N2O emission was studied using the static chamber method and the gas chromatographic technique. The results indicated that the wheat field was the sources of N2O emission. The N2O emission peaks followed each time of fertilizer application and irrigation, and usually continued for 1~2 weeks. N2O emissions accounted for more than 40% of total emissions during the N2O emission peak. The amount of N2O emission during three growing stage of wheat from high to low was arranged in turn pre-wintering period, post-wintering period and wintering period. N2O emission could be increased by straw returning. Compared with SN, N2O emission could be enhanced by 48.6% under SR. Both SRC and SRR could decrease the N2O emission, increase wheat yield and economic benefit, especially the latter. Nitrogen drilling is a good method for yield increment and N2O abatement.

  5. Migratory Patterns of Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha Returning to a Large, Free-flowing River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eiler, John H.; Evans, Allison N.; Schreck, Carl B.

    2015-01-01

    Upriver movements were determined for Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha returning to the Yukon River, a large, virtually pristine river basin. These returns have declined dramatically since the late 1990s, and information is needed to better manage the run and facilitate conservation efforts. A total of 2,860 fish were radio tagged during 2002–2004. Most (97.5%) of the fish tracked upriver to spawning areas displayed continual upriver movements and strong fidelity to the terminal tributaries entered. Movement rates were substantially slower for fish spawning in lower river tributaries (28–40 km d-1) compared to upper basin stocks (52–62 km d-1). Three distinct migratory patterns were observed, including a gradual decline, pronounced decline, and substantial increase in movement rate as the fish moved upriver. Stocks destined for the same region exhibited similar migratory patterns. Individual fish within a stock showed substantial variation, but tended to reflect the regional pattern. Differences between consistently faster and slower fish explained 74% of the within-stock variation, whereas relative shifts in sequential movement rates between “hares” (faster fish becoming slower) and “tortoises” (slow but steady fish) explained 22% of the variation. Pulses of fish moving upriver were not cohesive. Fish tagged over a 4-day period took 16 days to pass a site 872 km upriver. Movement rates were substantially faster and the percentage of atypical movements considerably less than reported in more southerly drainages, but may reflect the pristine conditions within the Yukon River, wild origins of the fish, and discrete run timing of the returns. Movement data can provide numerous insights into the status and management of salmon returns, particularly in large river drainages with widely scattered fisheries where management actions in the lower river potentially impact harvests and escapement farther upstream. However, the substantial variation

  6. 7 CFR 3560.305 - Return on investment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 15 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Return on investment. 3560.305 Section 3560.305... AGRICULTURE DIRECT MULTI-FAMILY HOUSING LOANS AND GRANTS Financial Management § 3560.305 Return on investment. (a) Borrower's return on investment. Borrowers may receive a return on their investment (ROI) in...

  7. Modeling the stock price returns volatility using GARCH(1,1) in some Indonesia stock prices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Awalludin, S. A.; Ulfah, S.; Soro, S.

    2018-01-01

    In the financial field, volatility is one of the key variables to make an appropriate decision. Moreover, modeling volatility is needed in derivative pricing, risk management, and portfolio management. For this reason, this study presented a widely used volatility model so-called GARCH(1,1) for estimating the volatility of daily returns of stock prices of Indonesia from July 2007 to September 2015. The returns can be obtained from stock price by differencing log of the price from one day to the next. Parameters of the model were estimated by Maximum Likelihood Estimation. After obtaining the volatility, natural cubic spline was employed to study the behaviour of the volatility over the period. The result shows that GARCH(1,1) indicate evidence of volatility clustering in the returns of some Indonesia stock prices.

  8. An Empirical Analysis Of Stock Returns And Volatility: The Case Of Stock Markets From Central And Eastern Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Okičić Jasmina

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available The main goal of this paper is to investigate the behaviour of stock returns in the case of stock markets from Central and Eastern Europe (CEE, focusing on the relationship between returns and conditional volatility. Since there is relatively little empirical research on the volatility of stock returns in underdeveloped stock markets, with even fewer studies on markets in the transitional economies of the CEE region, this paper is designed to shed some light on the econometric modelling of the conditional mean and volatility of stock returns from this region. The results presented in this paper provide confirmatory evidence that ARIMA and GARCH processes provide parsimonious approximations of mean and volatility dynamics in the case of the selected stock markets. There is overwhelming evidence corroborating the existence of a leverage effect, meaning that negative shocks increase volatility more than positive shocks do. Since financial decisions are generally based upon the trade-off between risk and return, the results presented in this paper will provide valuable information in decision making for those who are planning to invest in stock markets from the CEE region.

  9. Characteristics of donors who do or do not return to give blood and barriers to their return

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wevers, Anne; Wigboldus, Daniël H.J.; de Kort, Wim L.A.M.; van Baaren, Rick; Veldhuizen, Ingrid J.T.

    2014-01-01

    Background In the Netherlands about 50% of whole blood donors return to give blood after an invitation to donate. This study aimed to investigate the characteristics of donor return behaviour and to gain insight into the barriers to blood donation reported by the donors themselves. Materials and methods A total of 4,901 whole blood donors were invited to donate in week 39 of 2009. Barriers mentioned by donors who informed the blood bank for not donating were registered for 1 month. Logistic regression analyses assessed relevant characteristics of return behaviour, such as age and blood type, in men and women separately. Results Of the invited donors, 55% returned to give a donation, whereas 45% did not return. Male donors were more likely to return when they were older, had a higher previous return rate and had no past deferrals. The same pattern was found among women, but was less strong. The main barriers were: time constraints (35%), preference to postpone donation due to general physical problems although being eligible to donate (29%), and being ineligible to donate due to medical deferral criteria (9%). Discussion Specific donor characteristics are associated with return behaviour. Not donating due to time constraints could mean that donors do not feel the urgency of donating blood. Interventions targeted to increase commitment among specific donor groups should be tested further. PMID:23522891

  10. Analisis Kinerja 14 Reksa Dana Saham Terbaik Periode 2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yen sun

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Capital Market is a significant indicator of an economy for a country. However, in Indonesia many people are not familiar yet with the investment activity in capital market. The writer is then interested to study the performance of the best (15 mutual fund (shares 2010 version of Investor Magazine for the next period investment decision in 2011. The research will be focused on several stages. First, it will compute the return for 14 mutual funds, market return and risk-free rate for one year period. Then, the performance will be evaluated using Sharpe, Treynor to find which mutual fund outperform the market. Also, each method will result rank of the best mutual fund. Furthermore, there is one more method will be used in performance evaluation, Jensen. The result of this study is there are two mutual funds that can be recommended for investment in 2011, they are Panin Dana Maksima and Panin Dana Prima. They are recommended because the two mutual funds showed the best performance for those three methods of evaluation and they can maintain their performance for more than one period

  11. Money growth and aggregate stock returns

    OpenAIRE

    Böing, Tobias; Stadtmann, Georg

    2016-01-01

    We empirically evaluate the predictive power of money growth measured by M2 for stock returns of the S&P 500 index. We use monthly US data and predict multiperiod returns over 1, 3, and 5 years with long-horizon regressions. In-sample regressions show that money growth is useful for predicting returns. Higher recent money growth has a significantly negative effect on subsequent returns of the S&P 500. An out-of-sample analysis shows that a simple model with money growth as a single predictor ...

  12. Poetic Return in Afghanistan Persian Poem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Esmaeil Shafagh

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Poetic return movement was started by a group of poets like Moshtagh and Shole Esfehani in the second half of 12 century. Their goal was restoring Persian poem and deliverance of Hindi style decline. Esfahan’s poets initiative was considered only in Iran but in other Persian language and literature areas like India, Afghanistan and Transoxiana it was ignored. After the failure of constitutional Movement in Afghanistan, motion similar poetic return was happened that caused poetic themes, which had gone towards modernism, return to Hindi style again.The present paper attempts to analyze the poetic atmosphere in Afghanistan synchronous the poetic return movement in Iran and investigate socio- political backgrounds of return to Hindi style in Afghanistan after constitution failure.

  13. Extreme value analysis of meterological parameters observed at Narora during the period 1989-2001

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Varakhedkar, V.K.; Dube, B.; Gurg, R.P.

    2002-08-01

    The design of engineering structures requires an understanding of extreme weather conditions that may occur at the site of interest, which is very essential, so that the structures can be designed to withstand weather stresses. In this report an analysis of extreme values of meteorological parameters observed at Narora for the period 1989- 2001 is described. The parameters considered are maximum and minimum air temperature, minimum relative humidity, maximum wind speed, maximum rainfall in a day and month, and annual rainfall. The extreme value analysis reveals that the variables such as annual maximum air temperature, minimum relative humidity and monthly maximum rainfall obey Fisher -Tippet Type -I extreme value distribution where as annual minimum air temperature, maximum hourly wind speed, daily maximum rainfall and maximum and minimum annual rainfall, obey Fisher -Tippet Type -2 extreme value distribution function. Various distribution function parameters for each variable are determined. Extreme values corresponding to return periods of 50 years and 100 years are worked out. These derived extreme values are particularly useful for arriving at suitable design values to ensure the safety of any civil structure in Narora area with respect to stresses due to weather conditions. (author)

  14. Perceptions of Breast Cancer Survivors on the Supporting Practices of Their Supervisors in the Return-to-Work Process: A Qualitative Descriptive Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caron, Maryse; Durand, Marie-José; Tremblay, Dominique

    2018-03-01

    Purpose Supervisors are known to be key actors in ensuring the success of absent employees in their return-to-work process. However, to date, little is known about the perceptions of breast cancer survivors on the practices put in place by their supervisors to support them during this process. The objective of this study was to describe the perceptions of breast cancer survivors on the practices put in place by their supervisors to support them during their return-to-work process. Method A qualitative descriptive study was conducted. Semi-structured interviews were carried out with breast cancer survivors (n = 10) who had returned to work after treatment and were still at work more than 18 months later. Each interview was audio recorded and then transcribed verbatim for qualitative thematic content analysis using a semi-open codification framework. Results Participants identified three main practices put in place by their supervisors to support them and which they perceived as particularly helpful during the return-to-work process: (1) maintaining communication during their period of absence; (2) working with them to structure their return-to-work process before their actual return; and (3) allowing them flexibility in their schedule for a certain period, particularly at the beginning of the return-to-work process. Breast cancer survivors also identified an omission in the practice of employers: lack of follow-up over time. Conclusion Knowledge about the practices perceived as helpful by breast cancer survivors during their return-to-work process lays the groundwork for the eventual development of services to help breast cancer survivors in their return to work.

  15. Common Factors in International Bond Returns

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Driessen, J.J.A.G.; Melenberg, B.; Nijman, T.E.

    2000-01-01

    In this paper we estimate and interpret the factors that jointly determine bond returns of different maturities in the US, Germany and Japan.We analyze both currency-hedged and unhedged bond returns.For currency-hedged bond returns, we find that five factors explain 96.5% of the variation of bond

  16. Return-to-work coordination programmes for improving return to work in workers on sick leave.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogel, Nicole; Schandelmaier, Stefan; Zumbrunn, Thomas; Ebrahim, Shanil; de Boer, Wout El; Busse, Jason W; Kunz, Regina

    2017-03-30

    To limit long-term sick leave and associated consequences, insurers, healthcare providers and employers provide programmes to facilitate disabled people's return to work. These programmes include a variety of coordinated and individualised interventions. Despite the increasing popularity of such programmes, their benefits remain uncertain. We conducted a systematic review to determine the long-term effectiveness of return-to-work coordination programmes compared to usual practice in workers at risk for long-term disability. To assess the effects of return-to-work coordination programmes versus usual practice for workers on sick leave or disability. We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL; 2016, Issue 11), MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL and PsycINFO up to 1 November 2016. We included randomised controlled trials (RCTs) that enrolled workers absent from work for at least four weeks and randomly assigned them to return-to-work coordination programmes or usual practice. Two review authors independently screened titles, abstracts and full-text articles for study eligibility; extracted data; and assessed risk of bias from eligible trials. We contacted authors for additional data where required. We conducted random-effects meta-analyses and used the GRADE approach to rate the quality of the evidence. We identified 14 studies from nine countries that enrolled 12,568 workers. Eleven studies focused on musculoskeletal problems, two on mental health and one on both. Most studies (11 of 14) followed workers 12 months or longer. Risk of bias was low in 10 and high in 4 studies, but findings were not sensitive to their exclusion.We found no benefits for return-to-work coordination programmes on return-to-work outcomes.For short-term follow-up of six months, we found no effect on time to return to work (hazard ratio (HR) 1.32, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.93 to 1.88, low-quality evidence), cumulative sickness absence (mean difference (MD) -16.18 work

  17. Analisis Faktor Fundamental Terhadap Excess Return Saham Syariah Perusahaan Jakarta Islamic Index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Azwar Azwar

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The study concluded that based on the result of testing by using multiple regression analysis. There are four variables that significantly affect the excess return variables, they are: BV, DER, ROE and SWBI. Besides, they are other variables such as PER, inflation, and exchange rate had no significant effect on the variables excess stock returns. Thus, it can be assumed that the JII firms during the study period was fulfiling aspects of sharia compliance. The indications are book value can represent the real value of the assets of the company itself and the highest ratio of debt to asset is 2.84%, meanwhile the highest determination of Islamic National Council is 33%DOI: 10.15408/aiq.v3i1.2221

  18. The impact of macroeconomic and conventional stock market variables on Islamic index returns under regime switching

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Slah Bahloul

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to study the impact of conventional stock market return and volatility and various macroeconomic variables (including inflation rate, short-term interest rate, the slope of the yield curve and money supply on Islamic stock markets returns for twenty developed and emerging markets using Markov switching regression models. The empirical results for the period 2002–2014 show that both developed and emerging Islamic stock indices are influenced by conventional stock indices returns and money supply for both the low and high volatility regimes. However, the other macroeconomic variables fail to explain the dynamics of Islamic stock indices especially in the high volatility regime. Similar conclusions are obtained by using the MS-VAR model.

  19. Shocks induced by junctions in totally asymmetric simple exclusion processes under periodic boundary condition

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sun, Xiaoyan, E-mail: sunxiaoyan1@gmail.com [College of Physics and Electronic Engineering, Guangxi Teacher Education University, Nanning 530001 (China); Xie, Yanbo [Department of Modern Physics, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026 (China); He, Zhiwei [College of Science, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083 (China); Wang, Binghong [Department of Modern Physics, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026 (China)

    2011-07-11

    This Letter investigates a totally asymmetric simple exclusion process (TASEP) with junctions in a one-dimensional transport system. Parallel update rules and periodic boundary condition are adopted. Two cases corresponding to different update rules are studied. The results show that the stationary states of system mainly depend on the selection behavior of particle at the bifurcation point. -- Highlights: → For no preference case, the system exists three stationary phases. → For preference case, the system exists five stationary phases. → The road lengths have not qualitative influence on the fundamental diagram.

  20. Predicting returns and rent growth in the housing market using the rent-to-price ratio: Evidence from the OECD countries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Engsted, Tom; Pedersen, Thomas Quistgaard

    We investigate the predictive power of the rent-to-price ratio for future real estate returns and rent growth in 18 OECD countries over the period 1970 to 2011. First, we document that in most countries returns are signi…cantly predictable by the rent-price ratio. An increase (decrease...... dependent on whether returns and rents are measured in nominal or real terms. Finally, there is some evidence of sub-sample instability in the predictive patterns, especially wrt. rent growth predictability. The predictability tests are conducted within a restricted VAR framework based on the dynamic Gordon...

  1. 26 CFR 301.6103(n)-1 - Disclosure of returns and return information in connection with written contracts or agreements...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... administration purposes. 301.6103(n)-1 Section 301.6103(n)-1 Internal Revenue INTERNAL REVENUE SERVICE... and Returns Returns and Records § 301.6103(n)-1 Disclosure of returns and return information in... administration purposes. (a) General rule. (1) Pursuant to the provisions of section 6103(n) of the Internal...

  2. Murine typhus in two travelers returning from Bali, Indonesia: an underdiagnosed disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takeshita, Nozomi; Imoto, Kazuya; Ando, Shuji; Yanagisawa, Kunio; Ohji, Goh; Kato, Yasuyuki; Sakata, Akiko; Hosokawa, Naoto; Kishimoto, Toshio

    2010-01-01

    Two Japanese travelers from Bali were diagnosed with murine typhus in Japan during the same period. Although one had only mild illness, the other experienced liver and kidney dysfunction. Murine typhus may be missed not only in endemic areas around the world, but also in travelers, especially those returning from marine resorts in these areas. © 2010 International Society of Travel Medicine.

  3. Factors associated with breastfeeding duration and exclusivity in mothers returning to paid employment postpartum.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bai, Dorothy Li; Fong, Daniel Yee Tak; Tarrant, Marie

    2015-05-01

    Mothers who are employed postpartum are less likely to continue breastfeeding than mothers who are not formally employed. However, as postpartum employment is increasingly necessary for the majority of new mothers, it is important to investigate factors that influence the continuation of breastfeeding in employed mothers. A sample of 1,738 mothers who returned to paid employment postpartum were recruited from the obstetric units of four public hospitals in Hong Kong, and prospectively followed for 12 months or until their infant was weaned. More than 85 % of participants returned to formal employment within 10 weeks postpartum, with over 90 % of these employed full-time. About one-third of the participants (32 %) were able to combine breastfeeding and employment, with breastfeeding defined as continuing for more than 2 weeks after returning to work postpartum. Later return to work and higher maternal education were associated with new mothers being able to combine breastfeeding and employment. Later return to work, shorter working hours, parental childcare, and higher maternal education were also associated with less likelihood of weaning from any or exclusive breastfeeding. Improvements in employment-related conditions for mothers and additional support for lower educated mothers may be effective strategies to enable employed women to continue breastfeeding after their return to work.

  4. Multi-Period Trading via Convex Optimization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boyd, Stephen; Busseti, Enzo; Diamond, Steve

    2017-01-01

    We consider a basic model of multi-period trading, which can be used to evaluate the performance of a trading strategy. We describe a framework for single-period optimization, where the trades in each period are found by solving a convex optimization problem that trades off expected return, risk......, transaction cost and holding cost such as the borrowing cost for shorting assets. We then describe a multi-period version of the trading method, where optimization is used to plan a sequence of trades, with only the first one executed, using estimates of future quantities that are unknown when the trades....... In this paper, we do not address a critical component in a trading algorithm, the predictions or forecasts of future quantities. The methods we describe in this paper can be thought of as good ways to exploit predictions, no matter how they are made. We have also developed a companion open-source software...

  5. 7 CFR 1230.639 - Additional absentee voter challenge period.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... Voter Request List indicated they had returned their ballot are not subject to challenge during this... period. FSA county offices will notify all challenged persons that documentation such as sales documents... challenged producers as soon as practicable but no later than November 9, 2000. (f) Challenged ballot. A...

  6. Measures to facilitate the reintegration of returning migrant workers: international experiences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lohrmann, R

    1988-06-01

    Bilateral and multilateral measures implemented to assist migrants who return to their country of origin have been designed to respond to a number of different but specific situations. 2 bilateral agreements are briefly described: 1) an agreement between the Federal Republic of Germany and the Republic of Turkey signed in the early 1970s, and 2) an agreement between France and Algeria signed in 1980. 3 different types of multilateral activities are described: 1) the operation of the so-called Return of Talent program by the Intergovernmental Committee for Migration, 2) the Transfer of KNow-how Through Expatriate Nationals program of the UN Development Programme, and 3) the elaboration of a model machinery on return migration by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. While the 1st 2 activities are operational programs, by which annually between 1000-2000 professionals are assisted in their permanent return to or temporary sojourn in their developing countries of origin, with the financial support of both the developed and the developing countries concerned, the 3rd initiative is a conceptual effort aimed at assisting governments to implement policy measures designed to make return migration commensurate with national development goals. 3 recent proposals include 1) the proposal for an international labor compensatory facility, 2) an international fund for vocational training, and 3) an international fund for manpower resources. A common factor shared by all these programs is that they have all involved on 1 side industrial receiving countries which feel themselves obliged to observe a number of principles guaranteed by law and which govern employment conditions and working relations. The reintegration measures implemented or proposed in cooperation with them have been adopted in full consideration of the prevailing standards of these countries, as different as they may be from 1 country to another. A common consideration has been that the

  7. THE INFLUENCE OF 5-C FACTORS ON RATE OF CREDIT RETURN IN BEEF CATTLE FARMING IN CENTRAL JAVA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Prasetyo

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The aims of study were to analyze (i income of beef cattle farming, (ii ability of farmers to meettheir obligation for returning credit, (iii role of character, capacity, capital, collateral and conditions(5C and its effect on credit return. The study was conducted using survey methods on farmers (fatteningand cow-calf operation, who use credit. Sample location was determined using two stage clusterrandom sampling based on beef cattle population, namely region of Grobogan, Blora, Rembang,Wonogiri and Boyolali. Number of respondents was 50 for fattening and 50 for cow-calf operation. Datawere analyzed by descriptive and inferential statistic, which consisted of scoring, income and multiplelinear regression. Results showed that income per-year of beef cattle fattening was greater than cow-calfoperation (IDR 8,954,208.00>1,606,786.00, as well as its contribution to the household farmers’income (49.45>14.91%. Credit return ability was 61.35% based on amount of credit IDR 22,482,510.Five-C analysis resulted that character and capacity of farmers were in adequate category, while capital,collateral and condition were IDR 14,932,500.00, IDR 58,740,000.00 and IDR 14,440,600.00. Capitaland collateral had significant effects, while character, capacity and condition had no significant effectson credit return.

  8. The Relationship between Return on Profitability and Costs of Outsourcing Information Technology Technical Support

    Science.gov (United States)

    Odion, Segun

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this quantitative correlational research study was to examine the relationship between costs of operation and total return on profitability of outsourcing information technology technical support in a two-year period of outsourcing operations. United States of America list of Fortune 1000 companies' chief information officers…

  9. Sustainable Mars Sample Return

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alston, Christie; Hancock, Sean; Laub, Joshua; Perry, Christopher; Ash, Robert

    2011-01-01

    The proposed Mars sample return mission will be completed using natural Martian resources for the majority of its operations. The system uses the following technologies: In-Situ Propellant Production (ISPP), a methane-oxygen propelled Mars Ascent Vehicle (MAV), a carbon dioxide powered hopper, and a hydrogen fueled balloon system (large balloons and small weather balloons). The ISPP system will produce the hydrogen, methane, and oxygen using a Sabatier reactor. a water electrolysis cell, water extracted from the Martian surface, and carbon dioxide extracted from the Martian atmosphere. Indigenous hydrogen will fuel the balloon systems and locally-derived methane and oxygen will fuel the MAV for the return of a 50 kg sample to Earth. The ISPP system will have a production cycle of 800 days and the estimated overall mission length is 1355 days from Earth departure to return to low Earth orbit. Combining these advanced technologies will enable the proposed sample return mission to be executed with reduced initial launch mass and thus be more cost efficient. The successful completion of this mission will serve as the next step in the advancement of Mars exploration technology.

  10. Return to Work After Temporary Disability Pension in Finland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laaksonen, Mikko; Gould, Raija

    2015-09-01

    When it is possible that the employee's work ability can be restored through treatment or rehabilitation, disability pension in Finland is granted for a fixed period. We examined which factors are associated with return to work (RTW) after such temporary disability pension. The study included all Finnish residents whose temporary disability pension from the earnings-related pension system started in 2008 (N = 10,269). Competing risks regression analysis was applied to examine register-based determinants for RTW after temporary disability pension due to mental disorders, musculoskeletal diseases, other diseases, and injury over a 4-year follow-up period. The overall cumulative incidence of RTW was 25%. RTW was more probable after temporary disability pension due to injury and musculoskeletal diseases and less probable after temporary disability pension due to mental disorders. Younger age and higher education increased RTW but differences between genders, private and public sector employees, and occupational classes were relatively small. The probability of RTW was higher among those who were employed before their temporary disability pension (subhazard ratio in multivariate analysis 2.41 (95% CI 2.13-2.72) and among the 9% who participated in vocational rehabilitation during their pension [SHR 2.10 (95% CI 1.90-2.31)]. With some exceptions, the results were fairly similar for all diagnostic causes of temporary disability pension. Return to work after temporary disability pension was relatively uncommon. Nevertheless, in all diagnostic groups RTW continued for the whole follow-up period. The low educated and those not employed before temporary disability pension need more support in their RTW. The strong association between vocational rehabilitation and RTW suggests that increasing rehabilitation among those with impaired work ability may promote RTW.

  11. OpenCL-Based FPGA Accelerator for 3D FDTD with Periodic and Absorbing Boundary Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hasitha Muthumala Waidyasooriya

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Finite difference time domain (FDTD method is a very poplar way of numerically solving partial differential equations. FDTD has a low operational intensity so that the performances in CPUs and GPUs are often restricted by the memory bandwidth. Recently, deeply pipelined FPGA accelerators have shown a lot of success by exploiting streaming data flows in FDTD computation. In spite of this success, many FPGA accelerators are not suitable for real-world applications that contain complex boundary conditions. Boundary conditions break the regularity of the data flow, so that the performances are significantly reduced. This paper proposes an FPGA accelerator that computes commonly used absorbing and periodic boundary conditions in many 3D FDTD applications. Accelerator is designed using a “C-like” programming language called OpenCL (open computing language. As a result, the proposed accelerator can be customized easily by changing the software code. According to the experimental results, we achieved over 3.3 times and 1.5 times higher processing speed compared to the CPUs and GPUs, respectively. Moreover, the proposed accelerator is more than 14 times faster compared to the recently proposed FPGA accelerators that are capable of handling complex boundary conditions.

  12. Implications of deregulation in natural gas industry on utility risks and returns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Addepalli, Rajendra P.

    This thesis examines the changes in risk and required return on capital for local distribution utility companies in the increasingly competitive natural gas industry. The deregulation in the industry impacts the LDCs in several ways. First, with the introduction of competition consumers have been given choices among suppliers besides the traditional monopoly, the local utility, for purchasing their natural gas supply needs. Second, with the introduction of competition, some of the interstate pipelines were stuck with 'Take Or Pay' contracts and other costs that resulted in 'stranded costs', which have been passed on to customers of the pipeline including the LDCs. Third, the new obligation for the LDCs to purchase gas from the market, as opposed to buying it from pipelines and passing on the costs to its customers, brought opportunities and risks as well. Finally, with the introduction of competition, in some states LDCs have been allowed to enter into unregulated ventures to increase their profits. In the thesis we first develop a multifactor model (MFM) to explain historical common stock returns of individual utilities and of utility portfolios. We use 'rolling regression' analysis to analyze how different variables explain the variation in stock returns over time. Second, we conduct event studies to analyze the events in the deregulation process that had significant impacts on the LDC returns. Finally we assess the changes in risk and required return on capital for the LDCs over a 15 year time frame, covering the deregulation period. We employ four aspects in the examination of risk and return profile of the utilities: measuring (a) changes in required return on common equity and Weighted Average Cost of Capital, (b) changes in risk premium (WACC less an interest rate proxy), (c) changes in utility bond ratings, and (d) changes in dividend payments, new debt and equity issuances. We perform regression analysis to explain the changes in the required WACC using

  13. Stabilization of the quasi-periodic motion of a Q-switched Nd:YAG laser

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Chil-Min; Rim, Sunghwan; Kye, Won-Ho; Kim, Jeong-Moog; Lee, Kang-Soo

    2004-01-01

    We have developed a stabilization method of quasi-periodicity based on a return map. The method is explained in the forced Van der Pol oscillator, and applied experimentally to a quasi-periodic output of a Q-switched Nd:YAG laser. Even though the attractors have no unstable periodic orbit, we were able to stabilize them to an arbitrarily chosen orbit by targeting the trajectory into it

  14. Utility allowed returns and market extremes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murry, D.A.; Nan, G.D.; Harrington, B.M.

    1993-01-01

    In recent years interest rates have fluctuated from exceptionally high levels in the early 1980s to their current levels, the lowest in two decades. Observers and analysts generally have assumed that allowed returns by regulatory commissions follow the movement of interest rates; indeed some analysts use a risk premium method to estimate the cost of common equity, assuming a constant and linear relationship between interest rates and the cost of common equity. That suggests we could expect a relatively stable relationship between interest rates and allowed returns, as well. However, a simple comparison of allowed returns and interest rates shows that this is not the case in recent years. The relationship between market interest rates and the returns allowed by commissions varies and is obviously a great deal more complicated. Empirically, there appears to be only a narrow range where market interest rates significantly affect the allowed returns on common stock set by state commissions, at least for electric and combination utilities. If rates are at historically low levels, allowed returns based largely on market rates will hasten subsequent rate filings, and commissions appear to look beyond the low rate levels. Conversely, it appears that regulators do not let historically high market rates determine allowed returns either. At either high or low interest levels, caution seems to be the policy

  15. Return to sports after shoulder arthroplasty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Christine C; Johnson, Daniel J; Liu, Joseph N; Dines, Joshua S; Dines, David M; Gulotta, Lawrence V; Garcia, Grant H

    2016-01-01

    Many patients prioritize the ability to return to sports following shoulder replacement surgeries, including total shoulder arthroplasty (TSA), reverse total shoulder arthroplasty (RTSA), and hemiarthroplasty (HA). While activity levels after hip and knee replacements have been well-established in the literature, studies on this topic in the field of shoulder arthroplasty are relatively limited. A review of the literature regarding athletic activity after shoulder arthroplasty was performed using the PubMed database. All studies relevant to shoulder arthroplasty and return to sport were included. The majority of patients returned to their prior level of activity within six months following TSA, RTSA, and shoulder HA. Noncontact, low demand activities are permitted by most surgeons postoperatively and generally have higher return rates than contact sports or high-demand activities. In some series, patients reported an improvement in their ability to participate in sports following the arthroplasty procedure. The rates of return to sports following TSA (75%-100%) are slightly higher than those reported for HA (67%-76%) and RTSA (75%-85%). Patients undergoing TSA, RTSA, and shoulder HA should be counseled that there is a high probability that they will be able to return to their preoperative activity level within six months postoperatively. TSA has been associated with higher rates of return to sports than RTSA and HA, although this may reflect differences in patient population or surgical indication. PMID:27672564

  16. Co-Movement of Major Commodity Price Returns : Time-Series Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    de Nicola, Francesca; De Pace, Pierangelo; Hernandez, Manuel A.

    2014-01-01

    This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the degree of co-movement among the nominal price returns of 11 major energy, agricultural and food commodities based on monthly data between 1970 and 2013. A uniform-spacings testing approach, a multivariate dynamic conditional correlation model and a rolling regression procedure are used to study the extent and the time-evolution of uncondi...

  17. 26 CFR 301.6019-1 - Gift tax returns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 26 Internal Revenue 18 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Gift tax returns. 301.6019-1 Section 301.6019-1... ADMINISTRATION PROCEDURE AND ADMINISTRATION Information and Returns Returns and Records § 301.6019-1 Gift tax returns. For provisions relating to requirement of gift tax returns, see §§ 25.6019-1 to 25.6019-4...

  18. Periodicity of dental recall visits for young children first seen in community health centers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuthy, RA; Kavand, G; Momany, ET; Jones, MP; Askelson, NM; Chi, DL; Wehby, GL; Damiano, PC

    2014-01-01

    Objectives To study whether young children who had their first dental visit (FDV) at a Federally Qualified Health Center (FQHC) are likely to return within 12 months for a second dental episode. Methods 200 Medicaid-enrolled children who were less than 6-years-old were randomly selected from five Iowa FQHCs. Dental charts were abstracted and all Medicaid claims data, regardless of provider, were followed for 36 months. Medical and dental Medicaid claims data were also appended to the data set, along with relevant data from the child’s birth certificate. Multivariable logistic regression, using backward elimination, was used to determine variables that predicted whether a child returned for his or her dental recall visit with one year of the initial dental episode. Results 56.5% of these children returned within one year. The number of children in the household demonstrated a positive impact for children returning for a second dental episode. However, an increase in the frequency of medical well-child visits at the FQHC prior to the FDV had a negative influence. There was an inverse association between dental caries at the FDV and likelihood of returning for the second visit; however, it was not statistically significant. Age at FDV did not make a difference in regard to returning for a second episode within the allotted time period. Conclusions There has been a recent emphasis for children to visit a dentist by age 1. We should not overlook the importance of diligently working with higher risk families to instill the importance of regular, periodic preventive dental care. PMID:23574299

  19. Stock Returns and Risk: Evidence from Quantile

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas C. Chiang

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper employs weighted least squares to examine the risk-return relation by applying high-frequency data from four major stock indexes in the US market and finds some evidence in favor of a positive relation between the mean of the excess returns and expected risk. However, by using quantile regressions, we find that the risk-return relation moves from negative to positive as the returns’ quantile increases. A positive risk-return relation is valid only in the upper quantiles. The evidence also suggests that intraday skewness plays a dominant role in explaining the variations of excess returns.

  20. Risk and Real Estate Investment Trust (REITs Return: Evidence from Listed Public Trust

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nor Edi Azhar Binti Mohamad

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available This study examines an association of risk and returns of REITs from Malaysian REITs listed companies. The secondary data for analysis is retrieved from Bloomberg's Database of all 13 listed REITs in the Bursa Malaysia main market for three year period, from 2007 to 2009 with quarterly observation. The dependent variables are average return, expected return using Capital Asset Pricing Model, Sharpe Index, and Jensen Alpha Index. The independent variables represented by standard deviation, beta, trading volume, gross domestic product, inlation rate, and share price. The control variable for this study is type of REITs, whether it  was  categorized  as  Islamic  or  conventional  REITs.  Applying  correlations  and  multiple regression  analysis,  the  results  provide  evidence  on  the  association  between  return  and risk  on  REITs.  This  study  is  also  hoped  to  bring  beneits  to  the  public  listed  company  and shareholders in obtaining the key factors in determining the REITs yield. ";} // -->activate javascript

  1. The influence of biofuels, economic and financial factors on daily returns of commodity futures prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Algieri, Bernardina

    2014-01-01

    Biofuels production has experienced rapid growth worldwide as one of the several strategies to promote green energy economies. Indeed, climate change mitigation and energy security have been frequent rationales behind biofuel policies, but biofuels production could generate negative impacts, such as additional demand for feedstocks, and therefore for land on which to grow them, with a consequent increase in food commodity prices. In this context, this paper examines the effect of biofuels and other economic and financial factors on daily returns of a group of commodity futures prices using Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) family models in univariate and multivariate settings. The results show that a complex of drivers are relevant in explaining commodity futures returns; more precisely, the Standard and Poor's (S and P) 500 positively affects commodity markets, while the US/Euro exchange rate brings about a decline in commodity returns. It turns out, in addition, that energy market returns are significant in explaining commodity returns on a daily basis, while monetary liquidity is not. This would imply that biofuel policy should be carefully monitored in order to avoid excessive first-generation subsidization, which would trigger a fuel vs. food conflict. - Highlights: • The effects of biofuels and other economic and financial factors on daily returns of commodity futures prices are examined. • A GARCH methodology in univariate and multivariate settings is adopted. • The results show that a complex of drivers is relevant in explaining commodity futures returns. • Energy market returns play a significant role in pushing commodity returns. • The increase in monetary liquidity does not contribute to changes in futures returns on a daily basis

  2. Return to Golf After Lumbar Fusion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shifflett, Grant D; Hellman, Michael D; Louie, Philip K; Mikhail, Christopher; Park, Kevin U; Phillips, Frank M

    Spinal fusion surgery is being increasingly performed, yet few studies have focused on return to recreational sports after lumbar fusion and none have specifically analyzed return to golf. Most golfers successfully return to sport after lumbar fusion surgery. Case series. Level 4. All patients who underwent 1- or 2-level primary lumbar fusion surgery for degenerative pathologies performed by a single surgeon between January 2008 and October 2012 and had at least 1-year follow-up were included. Patients completed a specifically designed golf survey. Surveys were mailed, given during follow-up clinic, or answered during telephone contact. A total of 353 patients met the inclusion and exclusion criteria, with 200 responses (57%) to the questionnaire producing 34 golfers. The average age of golfers was 57 years (range, 32-79 years). In 79% of golfers, preoperative back and/or leg pain significantly affected their ability to play golf. Within 1 year from surgery, 65% of patients returned to practice and 52% returned to course play. Only 29% of patients stated that continued back/leg pain limited their play. Twenty-five patients (77%) were able to play the same amount of golf or more than before fusion surgery. Of those providing handicaps, 12 (80%) reported the same or an improved handicap. More than 50% of golfers return to on-course play within 1 year of lumbar fusion surgery. The majority of golfers can return to preoperative levels in terms of performance (handicap) and frequency of play. This investigation offers insight into when golfers return to sport after lumbar fusion surgery and provides surgeons with information to set realistic expectations postoperatively.

  3. Migratory Patterns of Wild Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha Returning to a Large, Free-Flowing River Basin.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John H Eiler

    Full Text Available Upriver movements were determined for Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha returning to the Yukon River, a large, virtually pristine river basin. These returns have declined dramatically since the late 1990s, and information is needed to better manage the run and facilitate conservation efforts. A total of 2,860 fish were radio tagged during 2002-2004. Most (97.5% of the fish tracked upriver to spawning areas displayed continual upriver movements and strong fidelity to the terminal tributaries entered. Movement rates were substantially slower for fish spawning in lower river tributaries (28-40 km d-1 compared to upper basin stocks (52-62 km d-1. Three distinct migratory patterns were observed, including a gradual decline, pronounced decline, and substantial increase in movement rate as the fish moved upriver. Stocks destined for the same region exhibited similar migratory patterns. Individual fish within a stock showed substantial variation, but tended to reflect the regional pattern. Differences between consistently faster and slower fish explained 74% of the within-stock variation, whereas relative shifts in sequential movement rates between "hares" (faster fish becoming slower and "tortoises" (slow but steady fish explained 22% of the variation. Pulses of fish moving upriver were not cohesive. Fish tagged over a 4-day period took 16 days to pass a site 872 km upriver. Movement rates were substantially faster and the percentage of atypical movements considerably less than reported in more southerly drainages, but may reflect the pristine conditions within the Yukon River, wild origins of the fish, and discrete run timing of the returns. Movement data can provide numerous insights into the status and management of salmon returns, particularly in large river drainages with widely scattered fisheries where management actions in the lower river potentially impact harvests and escapement farther upstream. However, the substantial variation

  4. Investor sentiment, mutual fund flows and its impact on returns and volatility

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lehnert, T.; Müller, A.; Frijns, B.P.M.; Beaumont, R.J.; Daele, M. van

    2008-01-01

    - Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of individual investor sentiment on the return process and conditional volatility of three main US market indices (Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P500 and Nasdaq100). Individual investor sentiment is measured by aggregate money

  5. Numerical doubly-periodic solution of the (2+1)-dimensional Boussinesq equation with initial conditions by the variational iteration method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Inc, Mustafa

    2007-01-01

    In this Letter, a scheme is developed to study numerical doubly-periodic solutions of the (2+1)-dimensional Boussinesq equation with initial condition by the variational iteration method. As a result, the approximate and exact doubly-periodic solutions are obtained. For different modulus m, comparison between the approximate solution and the exact solution is made graphically, revealing that the variational iteration method is a powerful and effective tool to non-linear problems

  6. Pengaruh Return on Assets dan Debt to Equity Ratio terhadap Harga Saham pada Institusi Finansial di Bursa Efek Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rani Ramdhani

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to determine the effect of Return on Assets and Debt to Equity Ratio of Stock Price on Financial Institutions in Indonesia Stock Exchange. This study used secondary data, with samples 2 financial companies in Indonesia Stock Exchange during the study period 2004-2010. Independent variables in this study are Return on Assets and Debt to Equity Ratio. This study used purposive sampling technique. The method of data analysis used classical assumption test, hypothesis test, multiple regression analysis, the F test and t test. Based on results of the study, Return on Assets and Debt to Equity Ratio have no significant effect on stock price. Meanwhile, the F test result shows that Return on Assets and Debt to Equity Ratio jointly have no effect on stock price.

  7. The roles of the trading time risks on stock investment return and risks in stock price crashes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jiang-Cheng; Dong, Zhi-Wei; Yang, Guo-Hui; Long, Chao

    2017-03-01

    The roles of the trading time risks (TTRs) on stock investment return and risks are investigated in the condition of stock price crashes with Hushen300 data (CSI300) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (ˆDJI), respectively. In order to describe the TTR, we employ the escape time that the stock price drops from the maximum to minimum value in a data window length (DWL). After theoretical and empirical research on probability density function of return, the results in both ˆDJI and CSI300 indicate that: (i) As increasing DWL, the expectation of returns and its stability are weakened. (ii) An optimal TTR is related to a maximum return and minimum risk of stock investment in stock price crashes.

  8. Does Aggregated Returns Disclosure Increase Portfolio Risk Taking?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beshears, John; Choi, James J; Laibson, David; Madrian, Brigitte C

    2017-06-01

    Many experiments have found that participants take more investment risk if they see returns less frequently, see portfolio-level returns (rather than each individual asset's returns), or see long-horizon (rather than one-year) historical return distributions. In contrast, we find that such information aggregation treatments do not affect total equity investment when we make the investment environment more realistic than in prior experiments. Previously documented aggregation effects are not robust to changes in the risky asset's return distribution or the introduction of a multi-day delay between portfolio choice and return realizations.

  9. A study on the effect of P/E and PEG ratios on stock returns: Evidence from Tehran Stock Exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seyyed Ali Lajevardi

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper studies the effect of the ratios of P/E and PEG on stock returns of the firms accepted on Tehran Stock Exchange. The study uses regression and Pearson Correlation Coefficient based on the performance of 138 firms over the period 2004- 2009 according to the Iranian calendar to investigate the effects of P/E and PEG on stock returns. The study also uses the models originally proposed by Chahin and Choudhry (2010 [Chahin, S., & Choudhry, T. (2010. Price to earnings, growth radio and value growth based strategies. Social Science Research Network, 19(4.] to discuss the strategies of investing on stocks. The results show that the ratio of P/E had more effect on stock returns than the ratio of PEG and stocks returns had a direct relationship with P/E and an inverse relationship with PEG. In addition, the returns of growth stock were more than value stock.

  10. Investment Strategies of Different Holding Periods: Evidence from Stock Markets of Hong Kong, Korea, Shanghai, and Taiwan

    OpenAIRE

    Massoud Moslehpour; Munkh-Ulzii Batmunkh

    2013-01-01

    Although there is abundant research focusing on estimating the level of returns on stock market, there is a lack of studies examining the comparison of stock return movements for short-term and long-term investment in the Asian stock market. The present study examines return on investment of different holding periods among selected stock markets in Asia. Based on the trading performance of key indices and market capitalization value, Korean Stock Exchange (KRE), Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE),...

  11. Boundary-value problems with integral conditions for a system of Lame equations in the space of almost periodic functions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Volodymyr S. Il'kiv

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available We study a problem with integral boundary conditions in the time coordinate for a system of Lame equations of dynamic elasticity theory of an arbitrary dimension. We find necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence and uniqueness of solution in the class of almost periodic functions in the spatial variables. To solve the problem of small denominators arising while constructing solutions, we use the metric approach.

  12. Asymptotic inverse periods of reflected reactors above prompt critical

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spriggs, G.D.; Busch, R.D.

    1995-01-01

    It is commonly assumed that the kinetic behavior of reflected and unreflected reactors is identical. In particular, it is often accepted that a given reactivity change in either type of system will result in an identical asymptotic inverse period. This is generally true for reactivities below prompt critical. For reactivities above prompt critical, however, the asymptotic inverse period can vary in a highly nonlinear fashion with system reactivity depending on the reflector return fraction, the neutron lifetime in the core, and the neutron lifetime in the reflector

  13. Working Capital Approaches and Firm’s Returns in Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dr. Talat Afza

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates the relationship between the aggressive/conservative working capital policies for seventeen industrial groups of public limited companies listed at Karachi Stock Exchange for a period of 1998-2003. The ordinary least square regression model has been used to investigate into the relationship of working capital approaches and the returns of firms. The study found significant differences among their working capital investment and financing policies across different industries. Moreover, these significant differences are remarkably stable over the period of six years. The aggressive investment working capital policies are accompanied by aggressive working capital financing policies. Finally, we found a negative relationship between the profitability measures of firms and degree of aggressiveness of working capital investment and financing policies. The study would contribute a better understanding of working capital management policies in an emerging market like Pakistan.

  14. Are stock market returns related to the weather effects? Empirical evidence from Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Tsangyao; Nieh, Chien-Chung; Yang, Ming Jing; Yang, Tse-Yu

    2006-05-01

    In this study, we employ a recently developed econometric technique of the threshold model with the GJR-GARCH process on error terms to investigate the relationships between weather factors and stock market returns in Taiwan using daily data for the period of 1 July 1997-22 October 2003. The major weather factors studied include temperature, humidity, and cloud cover. Our empirical evidence shows that temperature and cloud cover are two important weather factors that affect the stock returns in Taiwan. Our empirical findings further support the previous arguments that advocate the inclusion of economically neutral behavioral variables in asset pricing models. These results also have significant implications for individual investors and financial institutions planning to invest in the Taiwan stock market.

  15. Does Aggregated Returns Disclosure Increase Portfolio Risk Taking?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beshears, John; Choi, James J.; Laibson, David; Madrian, Brigitte C.

    2016-01-01

    Many experiments have found that participants take more investment risk if they see returns less frequently, see portfolio-level returns (rather than each individual asset’s returns), or see long-horizon (rather than one-year) historical return distributions. In contrast, we find that such information aggregation treatments do not affect total equity investment when we make the investment environment more realistic than in prior experiments. Previously documented aggregation effects are not robust to changes in the risky asset’s return distribution or the introduction of a multi-day delay between portfolio choice and return realizations. PMID:28553012

  16. Yellow fever in a traveller returning from Suriname to the Netherlands, March 2017

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M. Wouthuyzen-Bakker (Marjan); M. Knoester; A.P. van den Berg; C.H. Geurts van Kessel (Corine); M.P.G. Koopmans D.V.M. (Marion); C. Van Leer-Buter (Coretta); B. Oude Velthuis; S.D. Pas (Suzan); W.L.M. Ruijs (Wilhelmina L.M.); J. Schmidt-Chanasit (Jonas); S.G. Vreden; T.S. van der Werf; C.B.E.M. Reusken (Chantal); W.F.W. Bierman (Wouter)

    2017-01-01

    textabstractA Dutch traveller returning from Suriname in early March 2017, presented with fever and severe acute liver injury. Yellow fever was diagnosed by (q)RT-PCR and sequencing. During hospital stay, the patient’s condition deteriorated and she developed hepatic encephalopathy requiring

  17. Returning to work one year after childbirth: data from the mother-child cohort EDEN.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallace, Maeve; Saurel-Cubizolles, Marie-Josèphe

    2013-10-01

    The amount of time women spend out of work postpartum has implications for both health and economic trajectories which may result in long-term social inequities or exacerbate those already existing. The purpose of this investigation was to describe the characteristics of women who return to work within the first year postpartum and to identify specific occupational and health factors associated with returning to work among women who worked during pregnancy. The EDEN cohort is comprised of pregnant women recruited in two French university hospitals before 24 weeks gestation with a singleton pregnancy. Questionnaires were administered at 4, 8, and 12 months after birth. Multivariate logistic regression was used to model the odds of returning to work within 1 year of childbirth with inclusion of sociodemographic, health, and occupational variables that were significantly related to returning to work at the level of p worked during pregnancy in our sample had resumed work before their infant's first birthday. After adjustment, occupational level, full-time work, standing position, job reward, desire to change job, education, and father's occupational level remained significantly associated with returning to work. Women's perception of their work as rewarding was the strongest predictor of resuming employment (OR comparing high reward to low reward: 2.48, 95 % CI: 1.60-3.83 for women with parity 0 or 1). Experiencing an adverse birth outcome had no relation to returning to work within 1 year postpartum. Across all indicator variables, women of higher socioeconomic status or with greater resources had greater odds of returning to work compared to those of lower status. This suggests that the crucial period of employment transition around the time of childbirth may intensify preexisting social inequalities.

  18. THE SHORT- AND LONG-RUN RELATIONSHIP IN INDONESIAN ISLAMIC STOCK RETURNS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Shabri Abdul Majid

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims at empirically examining the short-run and long-run causal relationship between the Indonesian Islamic stock returns and selected macroeconomic variables namely inflation, money supply and exchange rate during the pre- and post- 2008 global financial turmoil period from 2002 until 2007 and from 2008 until 2013 by using monthly data. The methodology used in this study is time series econometric techniques i.e. the unit root test, cointegration test, error correction model (ECM and variance decompositions (VDCs. The findings showed that there is cointegration between Islamic stock prices and macroeconomic variables. The results suggest that inflation, money supply, and exchange rate significantly affected the Islamic stock returns in Indonesia. These variables should be taken into account by the policy makers as the important policy instruments in stabilizing Islamic stock markets in the country.DOI: 10.15408/aiq.v8i1.1863

  19. Demographic, psychometric, and case progression information as predictors of return-to-work in teachers undergoing occupational rehabilitation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, A E; Russell, J

    1995-12-01

    Occupational stress is a significant problem and is of particular concern for educational organizations. It was the aim of the current project to identify variables that could predict return-to-work outcomes in a group of teachers who had taken leave for a work-related stress condition. Demographic, psychometric, and case progression data were collected for 119 teachers who had taken Workers' Compensation Leave and were participating in a rehabilitation program. The participants' return to work outcomes were followed-up at least 12 months after they initially left their workplace. Hierarchical discriminant function analysis indicated that 84.62% of the cases could be correctly classified as either "returning to work" or "not returning to work due to illness." The main predictor variables were: if the individual had attempted to return to work within 505 days of injury, the individual's health behaviors, the sex of the individual, and the type of school in which he or she was employed (primary or secondary). It is suggested that the derived model could be further developed and used to predict return to work from stress-related illnesses.

  20. Rib stress fractures among rowers: a systematic review on return to sports, risk factors and prevention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Ailly, Philip N; Sluiter, Judith K; Kuijer, Paul P

    2016-06-01

    Rib stress fractures (RSFs) are injuries frequently sustained by elite rowers with an injury rate of 8-16% over the course of a rowing career, resulting in negative effects on training and performance. For clinical management, the aim of this review was to describe time to return to sports, summarize potentially preventive measures and appraise the evidence on risk factors. A search strategy was performed in PubMed, SportDiscus, Web of Science and Embase till June 1st 2015. All studies were graded on their quality. The search resulted in 124 studies, of which 17 were included: Ten reported on return to sports, 17 reported on risk factors and nine on preventive measures. For return to sports, nine studies mentioned a loss of training of 4-6 weeks. The shortest period was one week and the longest 16 weeks. For risk factors, insufficient or conflicting evidence was found for changes in the training program, incorrect rowing technique, female gender, low bone mineral density, inadequate equipment, and training type. For prevention, gradual changes in the training program, alertness on the part of coaches and clinicians, and supplementation of diet and hormones are suggested as effective measures. However, no effect studies have been found. The main outcome of this review on RSFs is that little evidence is available on return to sports, risk factors and preventive measures. Coaches and clinicians should carefully guide and assist rowers suffering from RSFs in off training and in the subsequent training period to regain their pre-injury level.