WorldWideScience

Sample records for return period conditions

  1. Computing return times or return periods with rare event algorithms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lestang, Thibault; Ragone, Francesco; Bréhier, Charles-Edouard; Herbert, Corentin; Bouchet, Freddy

    2018-04-01

    The average time between two occurrences of the same event, referred to as its return time (or return period), is a useful statistical concept for practical applications. For instance insurances or public agencies may be interested by the return time of a 10 m flood of the Seine river in Paris. However, due to their scarcity, reliably estimating return times for rare events is very difficult using either observational data or direct numerical simulations. For rare events, an estimator for return times can be built from the extrema of the observable on trajectory blocks. Here, we show that this estimator can be improved to remain accurate for return times of the order of the block size. More importantly, we show that this approach can be generalised to estimate return times from numerical algorithms specifically designed to sample rare events. So far those algorithms often compute probabilities, rather than return times. The approach we propose provides a computationally extremely efficient way to estimate numerically the return times of rare events for a dynamical system, gaining several orders of magnitude of computational costs. We illustrate the method on two kinds of observables, instantaneous and time-averaged, using two different rare event algorithms, for a simple stochastic process, the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process. As an example of realistic applications to complex systems, we finally discuss extreme values of the drag on an object in a turbulent flow.

  2. One hundred years of return period: Strengths and limitations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volpi, E.; Fiori, A.; Grimaldi, S.; Lombardo, F.; Koutsoyiannis, D.

    2015-10-01

    One hundred years from its original definition by Fuller, the probabilistic concept of return period is widely used in hydrology as well as in other disciplines of geosciences to give an indication on critical event rareness. This concept gains its popularity, especially in engineering practice for design and risk assessment, due to its ease of use and understanding; however, return period relies on some basic assumptions that should be satisfied for a correct application of this statistical tool. Indeed, conventional frequency analysis in hydrology is performed by assuming as necessary conditions that extreme events arise from a stationary distribution and are independent of one another. The main objective of this paper is to investigate the properties of return period when the independence condition is omitted; hence, we explore how the different definitions of return period available in literature affect results of frequency analysis for processes correlated in time. We demonstrate that, for stationary processes, the independence condition is not necessary in order to apply the classical equation of return period (i.e., the inverse of exceedance probability). On the other hand, we show that the time-correlation structure of hydrological processes modifies the shape of the distribution function of which the return period represents the first moment. This implies that, in the context of time-dependent processes, the return period might not represent an exhaustive measure of the probability of failure, and that its blind application could lead to misleading results. To overcome this problem, we introduce the concept of Equivalent Return Period, which controls the probability of failure still preserving the virtue of effectively communicating the event rareness.

  3. Multivariate return periods of sea storms for coastal erosion risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Corbella

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available The erosion of a beach depends on various storm characteristics. Ideally, the risk associated with a storm would be described by a single multivariate return period that is also representative of the erosion risk, i.e. a 100 yr multivariate storm return period would cause a 100 yr erosion return period. Unfortunately, a specific probability level may be associated with numerous combinations of storm characteristics. These combinations, despite having the same multivariate probability, may cause very different erosion outcomes. This paper explores this ambiguity problem in the context of copula based multivariate return periods and using a case study at Durban on the east coast of South Africa. Simulations were used to correlate multivariate return periods of historical events to return periods of estimated storm induced erosion volumes. In addition, the relationship of the most-likely design event (Salvadori et al., 2011 to coastal erosion was investigated. It was found that the multivariate return periods for wave height and duration had the highest correlation to erosion return periods. The most-likely design event was found to be an inadequate design method in its current form. We explore the inclusion of conditions based on the physical realizability of wave events and the use of multivariate linear regression to relate storm parameters to erosion computed from a process based model. Establishing a link between storm statistics and erosion consequences can resolve the ambiguity between multivariate storm return periods and associated erosion return periods.

  4. Modeling conditional correlations of asset returns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Silvennoinen, Annastiina; Teräsvirta, Timo

    2015-01-01

    In this paper we propose a new multivariate GARCH model with time-varying conditional correlation structure. The time-varying conditional correlations change smoothly between two extreme states of constant correlations according to a predetermined or exogenous transition variable. An LM-test is d......In this paper we propose a new multivariate GARCH model with time-varying conditional correlation structure. The time-varying conditional correlations change smoothly between two extreme states of constant correlations according to a predetermined or exogenous transition variable. An LM......-test is derived to test the constancy of correlations and LM- and Wald tests to test the hypothesis of partially constant correlations. Analytical expressions for the test statistics and the required derivatives are provided to make computations feasible. An empirical example based on daily return series of five...

  5. On the return period and design in a multivariate framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Salvadori

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Calculating return periods and design quantiles in a multivariate environment is a difficult problem: this paper tries to make the issue clear. First, we outline a possible way to introduce a consistent theoretical framework for the calculation of the return period in a multi-dimensional environment, based on Copulas and the Kendall's measure. Secondly, we introduce several approaches for the identification of suitable design events: these latter quantities are of utmost importance in practical applications, but their calculation is yet limited, due to the lack of an adequate theoretical environment where to embed the problem. Throughout the paper, a case study involving the behavior of a dam is used to illustrate the new concepts outlined in this work.

  6. Estimation of return levels against different return periods of extreme annual rainfall over Baluchistan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ali, M.; Jan, B.; Iqbal, J.

    2012-01-01

    Unprecedented heavy monsoon rainfall began in the last week of July 2010 in the Northern part of our country, causes floods in Baluchistan and Sindh. As the high frequency rainfall events are a significant cause of current severe flooding in Pakistan and any fluctuation in the level of such events may cause huge economic losses as well as social problem, urban structures (i.e. dams, urban drainage systems and flood). Statistical distributions are used to identify extremes of annual rainfall of different cities of Baluchistan (Quetta, Sibbi, Khuzdar, Lasbella, Dalbandin and Pasni) with their return periods. Analysis predicts that Gumbel Max. (GM) Distribution is the best fitted distribution for Sibbi and Lasbella while the GEV distribution is the best fitted for Quetta, Khuzdar, Dalbandin and Pasni. The analysis also suggests that different cities of Baluchistan have 30-years return period for getting more than 90 mm average daily rainfall while they have 100-years return period for receiving more than 118 mm daily rainfall. This suggests for suitable flood forecasting and improving the river structure in Baluchistan, Pakistan. (author)

  7. Stormwater Design Return Period Standards for U.S. Transportation Infrastructure: How Are States Approaching Resilience?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samaras, C.; Lopez, T.

    2016-12-01

    Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of precipitation in many regions, which is relevant for stormwater engineering designs and resilience in the transportation sector. Existing and future stormwater infrastructure is generally designed for historical and stationary hydrologic conditions. For example, the design return period is based on statistical analysis of past precipitation events, often over a 50-year historical timeline. The design return period translates into how much peak precipitation volume a system is designed for in a state, and provides information about the performance of a drainage structure. The higher the design period used by an engineer for a given stormwater system, the more peak stormwater volume the system can convey. Therefore, design return periods can be associated with a design's near-term and long-term resilience. However, there is a tradeoff between the choice of design return period, the total infrastructure capital cost, and the resilience of a system to heavy precipitation events. This study analyzes current stormwater infrastructure design guidelines for state departments of transportation in the contiguous United States, in order to understand how stormwater design return periods vary across states and provide insight into the resilience of current stormwater systems design. The study found that the design return period varies considerably across the United States by roadway functional class and drainage classification, as well as within climate regions. Understanding this variation will help states identify possible vulnerabilities, highlight deficiencies across states and infrastructure types, and help in updating design return periods to increase the climate resilience of stormwater infrastructure.

  8. The Conceptual Model of Calculating the Return Period of the Costs for Creation of the Enterprise’s Economic Security Service in the Short-Term Period

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Melikhova Tetiana O.

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Determination of the return period of the costs, advanced for the creation of economic security service of enterprise during a year, involves consideration of interaction of the conditional money flow, accumulated for a certain number of months, and the constant costs. The main component of the constant costs are the annual depreciation deductions. The return period is considered as gross, net, valid, and specified. The gross (net, valid, and specified return period is the time, wherein the gross conditional money flow, equal to the advanced costs, will be accumulated. The gross return period, taking account of the effect of time factor, is proposed to be defined as the ratio of annual depreciation deductions increased by the annual compounding coefficient to the conditional average monthly gross money flow, increased by the average monthly inflation index. As for the short-term period, a relationship between the gross, net, valid, and specified return periods of the costs, advanced to the creation of the economic security service, has been identified. The net (valid, specified return period is equal to the gross period adjusted to the coefficient of excess of the gross conditional money flow, accumulated in the gross period, over the net (valid, specified conditional cash flow.

  9. A Bivariate return period for levee failure monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isola, M.; Caporali, E.

    2017-12-01

    Levee breaches are strongly linked with the interaction processes among water, soil and structure, thus many are the factors that affect the breach development. One of the main is the hydraulic load, characterized by intensity and duration, i.e. by the flood event hydrograph. On the magnitude of the hydraulic load is based the levee design, generally without considering the fatigue failure due to the load duration. Moreover, many are the cases in which the levee breach are characterized by flood of magnitude lower than the design one. In order to implement the strategies of flood risk management, we built here a procedure based on a multivariate statistical analysis of flood peak and volume together with the analysis of the past levee failure events. Particularly, in order to define the probability of occurrence of the hydraulic load on a levee, a bivariate copula model is used to obtain the bivariate joint distribution of flood peak and volume. Flood peak is the expression of the load magnitude, while the volume is the expression of the stress over time. We consider the annual flood peak and the relative volume. The volume is given by the hydrograph area between the beginning and the end of event. The beginning of the event is identified as an abrupt rise of the discharge by more than 20%. The end is identified as the point from which the receding limb is characterized by the baseflow, using a nonlinear reservoir algorithm as baseflow separation technique. By this, with the aim to define warning thresholds we consider the past levee failure events and the relative bivariate return period (BTr) compared with the estimation of a traditional univariate model. The discharge data of 30 hydrometric stations of Arno River in Tuscany, Italy, in the period 1995-2016 are analysed. The database of levee failure events, considering for each event the location as well as the failure mode, is also created. The events were registered in the period 2000-2014 by EEA

  10. Bivariate return periods of temperature and precipitation explain a large fraction of European crop yields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zscheischler, Jakob; Orth, Rene; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

    2017-07-01

    Crops are vital for human society. Crop yields vary with climate and it is important to understand how climate and crop yields are linked to ensure future food security. Temperature and precipitation are among the key driving factors of crop yield variability. Previous studies have investigated mostly linear relationships between temperature and precipitation and crop yield variability. Other research has highlighted the adverse impacts of climate extremes, such as drought and heat waves, on crop yields. Impacts are, however, often non-linearly related to multivariate climate conditions. Here we derive bivariate return periods of climate conditions as indicators for climate variability along different temperature-precipitation gradients. We show that in Europe, linear models based on bivariate return periods of specific climate conditions explain on average significantly more crop yield variability (42 %) than models relying directly on temperature and precipitation as predictors (36 %). Our results demonstrate that most often crop yields increase along a gradient from hot and dry to cold and wet conditions, with lower yields associated with hot and dry periods. The majority of crops are most sensitive to climate conditions in summer and to maximum temperatures. The use of bivariate return periods allows the integration of non-linear impacts into climate-crop yield analysis. This offers new avenues to study the link between climate and crop yield variability and suggests that they are possibly more strongly related than what is inferred from conventional linear models.

  11. Return handling options and order quantities for single period products

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    D. Vlachos (Dimitrios); R. Dekker (Rommert)

    2000-01-01

    textabstractProducts which are sold through E-commerce or mail sales catalogues tend to have a much higher return rate than traditional products. The returns are especially problematic for seasonal products. To support decision making in these situations we study various options, which may be

  12. The Determinant Factors Of Sectoral Stock Return In Bullish And Bearish Condition At Indonesian Capital Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Defrizal

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract this study aims to explain determinant factors of sectoral stock return in bullish and bearish condition at Indonesian capital market. This study used a multi-factor asset pricing model with sectoral stock return as the dependent variable and stock market return interest rates and exchange rate as independent variables. The Identification of stock market condition by using a Markov Switching Models which are also used as the basis for segmenting the data into bullish and bearish conditions. Estimates of the model used the robust least square method. This study used data from Indonesian Stock Exchange to the observation period from January 1996 to December 2013. The results of this study were 1 simultaneously stock market return interest rates and exchange rate affected the sectoral stock return in bullish and bearish condition. 2 Partially the stock market return positively effect and is as a main factor in determining the sectoral stock return in all industries in either bullish condition or bearish condition while the effect of the interest rates and exchange rate do not consistently affect the sectoral stock return in different industries and market conditions.

  13. Holding Period Return-Risk Modeling: The Importance of Dividends

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    W.G.P.M. Hallerbach (Winfried)

    2003-01-01

    textabstractIn this paper we explore the relevance of dividends in the total equity return over longer time horizons. In addition, we investigate the effects of different reinvestment assumptions of dividends. We use a unique set of revised and corrected US equity data series, comprising monthly

  14. Modeling the Conditional Covariance between Stock and Bond Returns

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P. de Goeij (Peter); W.A. Marquering (Wessel)

    2002-01-01

    textabstractTo analyze the intertemporal interaction between the stock and bond market returns, we allow the conditional covariance matrix to vary over time according to a multivariate GARCH model similar to Bollerslev, Engle and Wooldridge (1988). We extend the model such that it allows for

  15. The joint return period analysis of natural disasters based on monitoring and statistical modeling of multidimensional hazard factors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, Xueqin [State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875 (China); National Marine Environmental Monitoring Center, State Oceanic Administration, Dalian 116023 (China); School of Social Development and Public Policy, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875 (China); Li, Ning [State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875 (China); Yuan, Shuai, E-mail: syuan@nmemc.org.cn [National Marine Environmental Monitoring Center, State Oceanic Administration, Dalian 116023 (China); Xu, Ning; Shi, Wenqin; Chen, Weibin [National Marine Environmental Monitoring Center, State Oceanic Administration, Dalian 116023 (China)

    2015-12-15

    As a random event, a natural disaster has the complex occurrence mechanism. The comprehensive analysis of multiple hazard factors is important in disaster risk assessment. In order to improve the accuracy of risk analysis and forecasting, the formation mechanism of a disaster should be considered in the analysis and calculation of multi-factors. Based on the consideration of the importance and deficiencies of multivariate analysis of dust storm disasters, 91 severe dust storm disasters in Inner Mongolia from 1990 to 2013 were selected as study cases in the paper. Main hazard factors from 500-hPa atmospheric circulation system, near-surface meteorological system, and underlying surface conditions were selected to simulate and calculate the multidimensional joint return periods. After comparing the simulation results with actual dust storm events in 54 years, we found that the two-dimensional Frank Copula function showed the better fitting results at the lower tail of hazard factors and that three-dimensional Frank Copula function displayed the better fitting results at the middle and upper tails of hazard factors. However, for dust storm disasters with the short return period, three-dimensional joint return period simulation shows no obvious advantage. If the return period is longer than 10 years, it shows significant advantages in extreme value fitting. Therefore, we suggest the multivariate analysis method may be adopted in forecasting and risk analysis of serious disasters with the longer return period, such as earthquake and tsunami. Furthermore, the exploration of this method laid the foundation for the prediction and warning of other nature disasters. - Highlights: • A method to estimate the multidimensional joint return periods is presented. • 2D function allows better fitting results at the lower tail of hazard factors. • Three-dimensional simulation has obvious advantages in extreme value fitting. • Joint return periods are closer to the reality

  16. The joint return period analysis of natural disasters based on monitoring and statistical modeling of multidimensional hazard factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, Xueqin; Li, Ning; Yuan, Shuai; Xu, Ning; Shi, Wenqin; Chen, Weibin

    2015-01-01

    As a random event, a natural disaster has the complex occurrence mechanism. The comprehensive analysis of multiple hazard factors is important in disaster risk assessment. In order to improve the accuracy of risk analysis and forecasting, the formation mechanism of a disaster should be considered in the analysis and calculation of multi-factors. Based on the consideration of the importance and deficiencies of multivariate analysis of dust storm disasters, 91 severe dust storm disasters in Inner Mongolia from 1990 to 2013 were selected as study cases in the paper. Main hazard factors from 500-hPa atmospheric circulation system, near-surface meteorological system, and underlying surface conditions were selected to simulate and calculate the multidimensional joint return periods. After comparing the simulation results with actual dust storm events in 54 years, we found that the two-dimensional Frank Copula function showed the better fitting results at the lower tail of hazard factors and that three-dimensional Frank Copula function displayed the better fitting results at the middle and upper tails of hazard factors. However, for dust storm disasters with the short return period, three-dimensional joint return period simulation shows no obvious advantage. If the return period is longer than 10 years, it shows significant advantages in extreme value fitting. Therefore, we suggest the multivariate analysis method may be adopted in forecasting and risk analysis of serious disasters with the longer return period, such as earthquake and tsunami. Furthermore, the exploration of this method laid the foundation for the prediction and warning of other nature disasters. - Highlights: • A method to estimate the multidimensional joint return periods is presented. • 2D function allows better fitting results at the lower tail of hazard factors. • Three-dimensional simulation has obvious advantages in extreme value fitting. • Joint return periods are closer to the reality

  17. Return period assessment of urban pluvial floods through modelling of rainfall–flood response

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tuyls, Damian Murla; Thorndahl, Søren Liedtke; Rasmussen, Michael Robdrup

    2018-01-01

    Intense rainfall in urban areas can often generate severe flood impacts. Consequently, it is crucial to design systems to minimize potential flood damages. Traditional, simple design of urban drainage systems assumes agreement between rainfall return period and its consequent flood return period......; however, this does not always apply. Hydraulic infrastructures found in urban drainage systems can increase system heterogeneity and perturb the impact of severe rainfall response. In this study, a surface flood return period assessment was carried out at Lystrup (Denmark), which has received the impact...... of flooding in recent years. A 35 years' rainfall dataset together with a coupled 1D/2D surface and network model was used to analyse and assess flood return period response. Results show an ambiguous relation between rainfall and flood return periods indicating that linear rainfall–runoff relationships will...

  18. Crude oil price shocks and stock returns. Evidence from Turkish stock market under global liquidity conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berk, Istemi [Koeln Univ. (Germany). Energiewirtschaftliches Inst.; Aydogan, Berna [Izmir Univ. of Economics (Turkey). Dept. of International Trade and Finance

    2012-09-15

    The purpose of this study is to investigate the impacts of crude oil price variations on the Turkish stock market returns. We have employed vector autoregression (V AR) model using daily observations of Brent crude oil prices and Istanbul Stock Exchange National Index (ISE- 1 00) returns for the period between January 2, 1990 and November 1, 2011. We have also tested the relationship between oil prices and stock market returns under global liquidity conditions by incorporating a liquidity proxy variable, Chicago Board of Exchange's (CBOE) S and P 500 market volatility index (VIX), into the model. Variance decomposition test results suggest little empirical evidence that crude oil price shocks have been rationally evaluated in the Turkish stock market. Rather, it was global liquidity conditions that were found to account for the greatest amount of variation in stock market returns.

  19. Multivariate return periods in hydrology: a critical and practical review focusing on synthetic design hydrograph estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Gräler

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Most of the hydrological and hydraulic studies refer to the notion of a return period to quantify design variables. When dealing with multiple design variables, the well-known univariate statistical analysis is no longer satisfactory, and several issues challenge the practitioner. How should one incorporate the dependence between variables? How should a multivariate return period be defined and applied in order to yield a proper design event? In this study an overview of the state of the art for estimating multivariate design events is given and the different approaches are compared. The construction of multivariate distribution functions is done through the use of copulas, given their practicality in multivariate frequency analyses and their ability to model numerous types of dependence structures in a flexible way. A synthetic case study is used to generate a large data set of simulated discharges that is used for illustrating the effect of different modelling choices on the design events. Based on different uni- and multivariate approaches, the design hydrograph characteristics of a 3-D phenomenon composed of annual maximum peak discharge, its volume, and duration are derived. These approaches are based on regression analysis, bivariate conditional distributions, bivariate joint distributions and Kendall distribution functions, highlighting theoretical and practical issues of multivariate frequency analysis. Also an ensemble-based approach is presented. For a given design return period, the approach chosen clearly affects the calculated design event, and much attention should be given to the choice of the approach used as this depends on the real-world problem at hand.

  20. Modelling conditional correlations of asset returns: A smooth transition approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Silvennoinen, Annastiina; Teräsvirta, Timo

    In this paper we propose a new multivariate GARCH model with time-varying conditional correlation structure. The time-varying conditional correlations change smoothly between two extreme states of constant correlations according to a predetermined or exogenous transition variable. An LM-test is d......In this paper we propose a new multivariate GARCH model with time-varying conditional correlation structure. The time-varying conditional correlations change smoothly between two extreme states of constant correlations according to a predetermined or exogenous transition variable. An LM......-test is derived to test the constancy of correlations and LM- and Wald tests to test the hypothesis of partially constant correlations. Analytical expressions for the test statistics and the required derivatives are provided to make computations feasible. An empirical example based on daily return series of ve...

  1. Supporting a Deep Space Gateway with Free-Return Earth-Moon Periodic Orbits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Genova, A. L.; Dunham, D. W.; Hardgrove, C.

    2018-02-01

    Earth-Moon periodic orbits travel between the Earth and Moon via free-return circumlunar segments and can host a station that can provide architecture support to other nodes near the Moon and Mars while enabling science return from cislunar space.

  2. Return Period of a Sea Storm with at Least Two Waves Higher than a Fixed Threshold

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Felice Arena

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Practical applications in ocean engineering require the long-term analysis for prediction of extreme waves, that identify design conditions. If extreme individual waves are investigated, we need to combine long-term statistical analysis of ocean waves with short-term statistics. The former considers the distribution of standard deviation of free surface displacement in the considered location in a long-time span, of order of 10 years or more. The latter analyzes the distribution of individual wave heights in a sea state, which is a Gaussian process in time domain. Recent advanced approaches enable the combination of the two analyses. In the paper the analytical solution is obtained for the return period of a sea storm with at least two individual waves higher than a fixed level. This solution is based on the application of the Equivalent Triangular Storm model for the representation of actual storms. One of the corollaries of the solution gives the exact expression for the probability that at least two waves higher than fixed level are produced during the lifetime of a structure. The previous solution of return period and the relative probability of exceedance may be effectively applied for the risk analysis of ocean structures.

  3. Levee reliability analyses for various flood return periods - a case study in southern Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, W.-C.; Yu, H.-W.; Weng, M.-C.

    2015-04-01

    In recent years, heavy rainfall conditions have caused disasters around the world. To prevent losses by floods, levees have often been constructed in inundation-prone areas. This study performed reliability analyses for the Chiuliao First Levee in southern Taiwan. The failure-related parameters were the water level, the scouring depth, and the in situ friction angle. Three major failure mechanisms were considered: the slope sliding failure of the levee and the sliding and overturning failures of the retaining wall. When the variability of the in situ friction angle and the scouring depth are considered for various flood return periods, the variations of the factor of safety for the different failure mechanisms show that the retaining wall sliding and overturning failures are more sensitive to the change of the friction angle. When the flood return period is greater than 2 years, the levee could fail with slope sliding for all values of the water level difference. The results of levee stability analysis considering the variability of different parameters could aid engineers in designing the levee cross sections, especially with potential failure mechanisms in mind.

  4. Bivariate return periods of temperature and precipitation explain a large fraction of European crop yields

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Zscheischler

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Crops are vital for human society. Crop yields vary with climate and it is important to understand how climate and crop yields are linked to ensure future food security. Temperature and precipitation are among the key driving factors of crop yield variability. Previous studies have investigated mostly linear relationships between temperature and precipitation and crop yield variability. Other research has highlighted the adverse impacts of climate extremes, such as drought and heat waves, on crop yields. Impacts are, however, often non-linearly related to multivariate climate conditions. Here we derive bivariate return periods of climate conditions as indicators for climate variability along different temperature–precipitation gradients. We show that in Europe, linear models based on bivariate return periods of specific climate conditions explain on average significantly more crop yield variability (42 % than models relying directly on temperature and precipitation as predictors (36 %. Our results demonstrate that most often crop yields increase along a gradient from hot and dry to cold and wet conditions, with lower yields associated with hot and dry periods. The majority of crops are most sensitive to climate conditions in summer and to maximum temperatures. The use of bivariate return periods allows the integration of non-linear impacts into climate–crop yield analysis. This offers new avenues to study the link between climate and crop yield variability and suggests that they are possibly more strongly related than what is inferred from conventional linear models.

  5. Molecular Dynamics with Helical Periodic Boundary Conditions

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kessler, Jiří; Bouř, Petr

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 35, č. 21 (2014), s. 1552-1559 ISSN 0192-8651 R&D Projects: GA ČR GAP208/11/0105; GA MŠk(CZ) LH11033 Grant - others:GA AV ČR(CZ) M200551205; GA MŠk(CZ) LM2010005 Institutional support: RVO:61388963 Keywords : periodic boundary conditions * helical symmetry * molecular dynamics * protein structure * amyloid fibrils Subject RIV: CF - Physical ; Theoretical Chemistry Impact factor: 3.589, year: 2014

  6. Return periods of losses associated with European windstorm series in a changing climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karremann, Melanie K; Pinto, Joaquim G; Reyers, Mark; Klawa, Matthias

    2014-01-01

    Possible future changes of clustering and return periods (RPs) of European storm series with high potential losses are quantified. Historical storm series are identified using 40 winters of reanalysis. Time series of top events (1, 2 or 5 year return levels (RLs)) are used to assess RPs of storm series both empirically and theoretically. Additionally, 800 winters of general circulation model simulations for present (1960–2000) and future (2060–2100) climate conditions are investigated. Clustering is identified for most countries, and estimated RPs are similar for reanalysis and present day simulations. Future changes of RPs are estimated for fixed RLs and fixed loss index thresholds. For the former, shorter RPs are found for Western Europe, but changes are small and spatially heterogeneous. For the latter, which combines the effects of clustering and event ranking shifts, shorter RPs are found everywhere except for Mediterranean countries. These changes are generally not statistically significant between recent and future climate. However, the RPs for the fixed loss index approach are mostly beyond the range of pre-industrial natural climate variability. This is not true for fixed RLs. The quantification of losses associated with storm series permits a more adequate windstorm risk assessment in a changing climate. (letter)

  7. When is return voluntary? Conditions of asylum in Lebanon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amy Keith

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The decision of Syrian refugees in Lebanon to return to Syria must not be based on a deteriorating quality of asylum that creates physical, social and material pressures on decisions to return.

  8. Conditional Relationship Between Beta and Return in the US Stock Market

    OpenAIRE

    Bing XIAO

    2016-01-01

    According to the CAPM, risk is measured by the beta, and the relation between required expected return and beta is linear. This paper examines the conditional relationship between beta and return in the US stock market. The conditional covariances and variances used to estimate beta are modeled as an ARCH process. The beta return relationship is tested upon the sign of the excess market return. The implication of the sign of the excess market return follows Morelli (2011). This study shows th...

  9. How are flood risk estimates affected by the choice of return-periods?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, P. J.; de Moel, H.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.

    2011-12-01

    Flood management is more and more adopting a risk based approach, whereby flood risk is the product of the probability and consequences of flooding. One of the most common approaches in flood risk assessment is to estimate the damage that would occur for floods of several exceedance probabilities (or return periods), to plot these on an exceedance probability-loss curve (risk curve) and to estimate risk as the area under the curve. However, there is little insight into how the selection of the return-periods (which ones and how many) used to calculate risk actually affects the final risk calculation. To gain such insights, we developed and validated an inundation model capable of rapidly simulating inundation extent and depth, and dynamically coupled this to an existing damage model. The method was applied to a section of the River Meuse in the southeast of the Netherlands. Firstly, we estimated risk based on a risk curve using yearly return periods from 2 to 10 000 yr (€ 34 million p.a.). We found that the overall risk is greatly affected by the number of return periods used to construct the risk curve, with over-estimations of annual risk between 33% and 100% when only three return periods are used. In addition, binary assumptions on dike failure can have a large effect (a factor two difference) on risk estimates. Also, the minimum and maximum return period considered in the curve affects the risk estimate considerably. The results suggest that more research is needed to develop relatively simple inundation models that can be used to produce large numbers of inundation maps, complementary to more complex 2-D-3-D hydrodynamic models. It also suggests that research into flood risk could benefit by paying more attention to the damage caused by relatively high probability floods.

  10. The conditioned reprocessing waste returns. An overview of the question

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Donato, A.

    1987-01-01

    Although the spent nuclear fuel reprocessing is at present under careful reconsideration and analysis in several countries, the economics, the environmental and health protection aspects being taken into consideration by many experts, it is nevertheless currently carried out in Great Britain and in France as a commercial service offered to the domestic utilities an to foreign customers, according to the contracts and the agreements signed in the past. Such contracts have been signed with COGEMA and/or BNFL by seven countries: Germany, Sweden, Japan, Belgium, Switzerland, Italy, Holland. As a consequence of this, a big number of high level radioactive glass containers and of cemented and bituminized waste will be returned in order to be stored and disposed off in these European countries and in Japan. The disposal of the conditioned wastes will only be possible if their characteristics comply with the acceptance criteria established or to be established in each customer country. A brief review of the situation will be presented in this paper, particular attention being given to the problems possibly arising from the acceptance point of view of the different reprocessing waste categories

  11. PORTOFOLIO MARKOWITZ: UJI OPTIMAL HOLDING PERIOD DAN KINERJA PORTOFOLIO BERDASARKAN KRITERIA RISIKO DAN TARGET RETURN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andi Ivand Markemo Boangmanalu

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The concept of mean-variance optimization, developed by Markowitz, is the cornerstone of modern finance theory. The objective of this portfolio construction is to minimize investment risk by forming optimal portfolios. Dynamic movement in capital markets requires not only changes in portfolio composition. Optimal portfolio is not only determined by the covariance between securities in the portfolio, but also by holding period. The aims of this study is to answer two research questions. The first research question is how long the optimal holding period that was resulted from trade-off between risk and return. This study using target return that are determined hypothetically as well as the risk criteria are divided into 3 namely the mean variance, semivarians and expected loss. Target returns are simulated in this study were divided into 3 criteria namely aggressive, moderate and conservative. The second research question is whether there are differences among the various portfolio performance based on criteria of risk and target return. Portfolio performance is measured by using excess return and the Sharpe index. In this study, stocks covered in LQ-45 index are used to construct efficient portoflio. Monthly price series for company and LQ-45 index for February 2004 to September 2008 are collected. The analysis found that optimal holing period is ranges between 1-5 months. Holding period of a portfolio that more than 5 months will provide risk and return trade-off less favorable. In addition this study found that there was no significant differences in portfolio performance based on overall scenarios

  12. Stochastic long term modelling of a drainage system with estimation of return period uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorndahl, Søren

    2009-01-01

    Long term prediction of maximum water levels and combined sewer overflow (CSO) in drainage systems are associated with large uncertainties. Especially on rainfall inputs, parameters, and assessment of return periods. This paper proposes a Monte Carlo based methodology for stochastic prediction of...

  13. ANALISIS PENGARUH EVA DAN MVA TERHADAP RETURN SAHAM PADA INDUSTRI PROPERTI DI BURSA EFEK INDONESIA PERIODE 2007-2012

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ryan Pahlawan

    2015-04-01

    mendapatkan investor dari Bursa Efek Indonesia Abstract: The aim of this research is to know and analyze : (1st the influence of Economic Value Added (EVA to Stock Return (2nd the influence of Market Value Added (MVA  to Stock Return (3rd the influence of Economic Value Added (EVA and Market Value Added (MVA to Stock Return between the financial performance variables of property industries on Indonesian Stock Exchange on period 2007-2012.The theoretical usefulness is to give contribution about financial management knowledge, which can use as reference for next research of financial performance especially about property industries on Indonesian Stock Exchange. The practical usefulness is to know the rate influence of Economic Value Added (EVA and Market Value Added (MVA to financial performance for give contribution to general property management in manage performance variables of property industries Indonesian Stock Exchange. This research using the secondary data which collected from Indonesian Stock Exchange data, and Research Department according to properties financial report on period 2007-2012. The samples are 54 variables and analyzed by multiple regression linear statistic method. Total of determination value is 0.368, this meaning is 36,8% the information in the data can be explained by model and 63,2% under other variables and error.  Conclusion of this research is : (1st Variables of Economic Value Added (EVA have positive influence to Stock Return; (2nd Variables of Market Value Added (MVA have negative influence to Stock Return; Refer to research conclusion above suggested is : (1st Optimized the Economic Value Added (EVA to achieve income and profits of stock return (2nd Manage the Variables of Market Value Added (MVA on well condition to keep finance stability  and get trusted from investors Indonesian Stock Exchange  (3rd Focus to Risk Management, Services, Corporate Vision & Mission, and Active to higher employee’s skill and knowledge company to get

  14. Behavior of Stock Price Variability over Trading and Nontrading Periods, and Daily Return Volatility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sumiyana Sumiyana

    2007-09-01

    This study concludes that return variance over trading and nontrading periods, along with overnight and lunch break nontrading session, and the first and second trading session, has differed significantly. In addition, daily return volatility is also not identical significantly. Subsequently, this study used size, trading volume, bid-ask spreads and up-down market as control variables. This study contradicts to all prior studies. This study especially suggests contra evidence in comparisons with previous concepts and theories in regards to size, trading volume, bid-ask spreads, and up-down market as control variables.

  15. Evaluation of the return periods of water crises and evaporation in Monte Cotugno reservoir (Southern Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Copertino, Vito; Lo Vecchio, Giuseppina; Marotta, Lucia; Pastore, Vittoria; Ponzio, Giuseppe; Scavone, Giuseppina; Telesca, Vito; Vita, Michele

    2010-05-01

    In the past water resources management has been dealt and solved increasing water availabilities; today such opportunities have been considerably reduced and the technical-scientific perspectives are addressed above all to improve water system effectiveness and to promote an use of water resources that holds account of the droughts frequency and based on a correct estimate of the hydrologic balance. In this work a study on the water stored in Monte Cotugno reservoir in Sinni river - Basilicata (Southern Italy) - is proposed, estimating water crises return periods and reservoir evaporation. For such purpose the runs method was applied, based on the comparison between the temporal series of the "water volume" hydrological variable and a threshold representative of the "normal" conditions regarding which the availability in excess or defect was estimated. This allowed to individualize the beginning and the end of a water crisis event and to characterize the droughts in terms of duration, sum deficit and intensity. Therefore the return period was evaluated by means of the methodology proposed by Shiau and Shen in 2001, turned out equal approximately to 6 years. Such value was then verified with a frequency analysis of the "water volume" random variable, using the Weibull's distribution. Subsequently, the Fourier's analysis in the last twenty years was carried out, obtaining the same result of the previous methods. Moreover, in proximity of the Monte Cotugno reservoir the weather station of Senise is located, managed by ALSIA (Agenzia Lucana di Sviluppo e Innovazione in Agricultura), that provides in continuous measurements of air temperature and humidity, wind speed and direction, and global solar radiation since 2000. Such parameters allowed to apply five methods for reservoir evaporation estimate selected from those proposed in the literature, of which the first three, the Jensen-Haise's method, Makkink's method and Stephens-Stewart's one are based on solar radiation

  16. Spatial variability of maximum annual daily rain under different return periods at the Rio de Janeiro state, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roriz Luciano Machado

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Knowledge of maximum daily rain and its return period in a region is an important tool to soil conservation, hydraulic engineering and preservation of road projects. The objective of this work was to evaluate the spatial variability of maximum annual daily rain considering different return periods, at the Rio de Janeiro State. The data set was composed by historical series of 119 rain gauges, for 36 years of observation. The return periods, estimated by Gumbel distribution, were 2, 5, 10, 25, 50 and 100 years. The spatial variability of the return periods was evaluated by semivariograms. All the return periods presented spatial dependence, with exponential and spherical model fitted to the experimental semivariograms. The parameters of the fitted semivariogram model were very similar; however, it was observed the presence of higher nugget effects for semivariograms of longer return periods. The values of maximum annual daily average rain in all the return periods increased from north to south and from countryside to the coast. In the region between the Serra do Mar range and the coast, besides increasing in magnitude, an increase in the spatial variability of the studied values with increasing return periods was also noticed. This behavior is probably caused by the orographic effect. The interpolated maps were more erratic for higher return periods and at the North, Northeast and Coastal Plain regions, in which the installation of new pluviometric stations are recommended.

  17. The return period analysis of natural disasters with statistical modeling of bivariate joint probability distribution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ning; Liu, Xueqin; Xie, Wei; Wu, Jidong; Zhang, Peng

    2013-01-01

    New features of natural disasters have been observed over the last several years. The factors that influence the disasters' formation mechanisms, regularity of occurrence and main characteristics have been revealed to be more complicated and diverse in nature than previously thought. As the uncertainty involved increases, the variables need to be examined further. This article discusses the importance and the shortage of multivariate analysis of natural disasters and presents a method to estimate the joint probability of the return periods and perform a risk analysis. Severe dust storms from 1990 to 2008 in Inner Mongolia were used as a case study to test this new methodology, as they are normal and recurring climatic phenomena on Earth. Based on the 79 investigated events and according to the dust storm definition with bivariate, the joint probability distribution of severe dust storms was established using the observed data of maximum wind speed and duration. The joint return periods of severe dust storms were calculated, and the relevant risk was analyzed according to the joint probability. The copula function is able to simulate severe dust storm disasters accurately. The joint return periods generated are closer to those observed in reality than the univariate return periods and thus have more value in severe dust storm disaster mitigation, strategy making, program design, and improvement of risk management. This research may prove useful in risk-based decision making. The exploration of multivariate analysis methods can also lay the foundation for further applications in natural disaster risk analysis. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

  18. Estimating return periods of extreme values from relatively short time series of winds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jonasson, Kristjan; Agustsson, Halfdan; Rognvaldsson, Olafur; Arfeuille, Gilles

    2013-04-01

    An important factor for determining the prospect of individual wind farm sites is the frequency of extreme winds at hub height. Here, extreme winds are defined as the value of the highest 10 minutes averaged wind speed with a 50 year return period, i.e. annual exceeding probability of 2% (Rodrigo, 2010). A frequently applied method to estimate winds in the lowest few hundred meters above ground is to extrapolate observed 10-meter winds logarithmically to higher altitudes. Recent study by Drechsel et al. (2012) showed however that this methodology is not as accurate as interpolating simulated results from the global ECMWF numerical weather prediction (NWP) model to the desired height. Observations of persistent low level jets near Colima in SW-Mexico also show that the logarithmic approach can give highly inaccurate results for some regions (Arfeuille et al., 2012). To address these shortcomings of limited, and/or poorly representative, observations and extrapolations of winds one can use NWP models to dynamically scale down relatively coarse resolution atmospheric analysis. In the case of limited computing resources one has typically to make a compromise between spatial resolution and the duration of the simulated period, both of which can limit the quality of the wind farm siting. A common method to estimate maximum winds is to fit an extreme value distribution (e.g. Gumbel, gev or Pareto) to the maximum values of each year of available data, or the tail of these values. If data are only available for a short period, e.g. 10 or 15 years, then this will give a rather inaccurate estimate. It is possible to deal with this problem by utilizing monthly or weekly maxima, but this introduces new problems: seasonal variation, autocorrelation of neighboring values, and increased discrepancy between data and fitted distribution. We introduce a new method to estimate return periods of extreme values of winds at hub height from relatively short time series of winds, simulated

  19. Importance of historical seismicity in the evaluation of large return period hazards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oliveira, C.S.

    1983-01-01

    This paper reports the results from an historical investigation on earthquake activity in Portugal based on data collected from original sources. A detailed revision of earthquake catalogues in what concerns date of occurrence, isosseismal maps, epicentral location, magnitude and duration of vibration was made for most of the 260 events identified in the period 1000 to 1900. Introducing this new piece of information which exhibits a much higher degree of quality into standard hazard models, uncertainties on final estimates for the zones of large return periods, RP, (RP > 200 years) are greatly reduced

  20. Conditional Relationship Between Beta and Return in the US Stock Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bing XIAO

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available According to the CAPM, risk is measured by the beta, and the relation between required expected return and beta is linear. This paper examines the conditional relationship between beta and return in the US stock market. The conditional covariances and variances used to estimate beta are modeled as an ARCH process. The beta return relationship is tested upon the sign of the excess market return. The implication of the sign of the excess market return follows Morelli (2011. This study shows the importance of recognizing the sign of the excess market return when testing the beta-return relationship. The approach also allows us to distinguish the size effect and the effect of economic cycles.

  1. Stock return, seasonality and asymmetric conditional volatility in steel & iron subsector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Chirila

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the results obtained following the testing of five hypotheses regarding conditional return and volatility of the most listed European stocks in the steel & iron subsector. The following elements of the stocks are analysed: time variation of volatility, seasonality of return and volatility, relationship between return and volatility and volatility asymmetry. The results obtained confirm for all the analyzed stocks the existence of volatility variation in time, the lack of correlation between return and volatility, the existence of asymmetry phenomenon of volatility and the presence in some stocks of the seasonality effect both for return and volatility.

  2. ICUD-0147 Extreme event statistics of urban pluvial floods – Return period assessment and rainfall variability impacts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tuyls, Damian Murla; Nielsen, Rasmus; Thorndahl, Søren Liedtke

    2017-01-01

    A return period assessment of urban flood has been performed and its adhered impact of rainfall variability studied over a urban drainage catchment area in Aalborg, Denmark. Recorded rainfall from 7 rain gauges has been used, located in a range of 7.5Km and for a period varying form 18-37 years....... Return period of rainfall and flood at catchment and local scale has been estimated, its derived ambiguities analysed and the variability of rain gauge based rainfall investigated regarding to flood estimation results. Results show a clear contrast between rainfall and flood return period estimates...

  3. Challenges estimating the return period of extreme floods for reinsurance applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raven, Emma; Busby, Kathryn; Liu, Ye

    2013-04-01

    Mapping and modelling extreme natural events is fundamental within the insurance and reinsurance industry for assessing risk. For example, insurers might use a 1 in 100-year flood hazard map to set the annual premium of a property, whilst a reinsurer might assess the national scale loss associated with the 1 in 200-year return period for capital and regulatory requirements. Using examples from a range of international flood projects, we focus on exploring how to define what the n-year flood looks like for predictive uses in re/insurance applications, whilst considering challenges posed by short historical flow records and the spatial and temporal complexities of flood. First, we shall explore the use of extreme value theory (EVT) statistics for extrapolating data beyond the range of observations in a marginal analysis. In particular, we discuss how to estimate the return period of historical flood events and explore the impact that a range of statistical decisions have on these estimates. Decisions include: (1) selecting which distribution type to apply (e.g. generalised Pareto distribution (GPD) vs. generalised extreme value distribution (GEV)); (2) if former, the choice of the threshold above which the GPD is fitted to the data; and (3) the necessity to perform a cluster analysis to group flow peaks to temporally represent individual flood events. Second, we summarise a specialised multivariate extreme value model, which combines the marginal analysis above with dependence modelling to generate industry standard event sets containing thousands of simulated, equi-probable floods across a region/country. These events represent the typical range of anticipated flooding across a region and can be used to estimate the largest or most widespread events that are expected to occur. Finally, we summarise how a reinsurance catastrophe model combines the event set with detailed flood hazard maps to estimate the financial cost of floods; both the full event set and also

  4. Studies of phase return map and symbolic dynamics in a periodically driven Hodgkin—Huxley neuron

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ding Jiong; Zhang Hong; Tong Qin-Ye; Chen Zhuo

    2014-01-01

    How neuronal spike trains encode external information is a hot topic in neurodynamics studies. In this paper, we investigate the dynamical states of the Hodgkin—Huxley neuron under periodic forcing. Depending on the parameters of the stimulus, the neuron exhibits periodic, quasiperiodic and chaotic spike trains. In order to analyze these spike trains quantitatively, we use the phase return map to describe the dynamical behavior on a one-dimensional (1D) map. According to the monotonicity or discontinuous point of the 1D map, the spike trains are transformed into symbolic sequences by implementing a coarse-grained algorithm — symbolic dynamics. Based on the ordering rules of symbolic dynamics, the parameters of the external stimulus can be measured in high resolution with finite length symbolic sequences. A reasonable explanation for why the nervous system can discriminate or cognize the small change of the external signals in a short time is also presented. (general)

  5. Estimating of seismic return periods in Laguna Verde Nuclear Power Plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Flores R, J.H.

    1993-01-01

    The study of seismic risk in the site of Laguna Verde Nuclear Power Plant and surroundings was made considering the different periods of seismic return and the probability of occurrence in distinct time intervals (50, 75, 100, 125, 150 years) starting with the distribution of first type of extreme values of Gumbel (G1), the value used for the assessment of lifetime of lump was 50 years, and the rest of the periods are used to evaluate temporary nuclear cemeteries, it is to say for reducing the radioactivity of burned fuel assemblies. The seismic data belongs to the seismicity catalog (1920-1982) elaborated around the site, which average magnitude was 5 in the Richter Scale and are considered as shallow and are located in the Continental crust of North American shelf, and are induced by the pressure of the cocos shelf, being 36 % of the seismic movements of intermediate value and two seismic movements of deep value. (Author)

  6. Variation of Time Domain Failure Probabilities of Jack-up with Wave Return Periods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Idris, Ahmad; Harahap, Indra S. H.; Ali, Montassir Osman Ahmed

    2018-04-01

    This study evaluated failure probabilities of jack up units on the framework of time dependent reliability analysis using uncertainty from different sea states representing different return period of the design wave. Surface elevation for each sea state was represented by Karhunen-Loeve expansion method using the eigenfunctions of prolate spheroidal wave functions in order to obtain the wave load. The stochastic wave load was propagated on a simplified jack up model developed in commercial software to obtain the structural response due to the wave loading. Analysis of the stochastic response to determine the failure probability in excessive deck displacement in the framework of time dependent reliability analysis was performed by developing Matlab codes in a personal computer. Results from the study indicated that the failure probability increases with increase in the severity of the sea state representing a longer return period. Although the results obtained are in agreement with the results of a study of similar jack up model using time independent method at higher values of maximum allowable deck displacement, it is in contrast at lower values of the criteria where the study reported that failure probability decreases with increase in the severity of the sea state.

  7. 26 CFR 1.6038-1 - Information returns required of domestic corporations with respect to annual accounting periods...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... the annual accounting period; (6) A list showing the name and address of, and the number of shares of... paragraphs (e) and (f) of this section shall be expressed in United States currency with a statement of the exchange rates used. (h) Time and place for filing return. Returns on Form 2952 required under paragraph (a...

  8. The dynamic conditional relationship between stock market returns and implied volatility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Sung Y.; Ryu, Doojin; Song, Jeongseok

    2017-09-01

    Using the dynamic conditional correlation multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (DCC-MGARCH) model, we empirically examine the dynamic relationship between stock market returns (KOSPI200 returns) and implied volatility (VKOSPI), as well as their statistical mechanics, in the Korean market, a representative and leading emerging market. We consider four macroeconomic variables (exchange rates, risk-free rates, term spreads, and credit spreads) as potential determinants of the dynamic conditional correlation between returns and volatility. Of these macroeconomic variables, the change in exchange rates has a significant impact on the dynamic correlation between KOSPI200 returns and the VKOSPI, especially during the recent financial crisis. We also find that the risk-free rate has a marginal effect on this dynamic conditional relationship.

  9. Urban flood return period assessment through rainfall-flood response modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Murla, Damian; Thorndahl, Søren Liedtke

    Intense rainfall can often cause severe floods, especially in urbanized areas, where population density or large impermeable areas are found. In this context, floods can generate a direct impact in a social-environmental-economic viewpoint. Traditionally, in design of Urban Drainage Systems (UDS......), correlation between return period (RP) of a given rainfall and RP of its consequent flood has been assumed to be linear (e.g.DS/EN752 (2008)). However, this is not always the case. Complex UDS, where diverse hydraulic infrastructures are often found, increase the heterogeneity of system response, which may...... cause an alteration of the mentioned correlation. Consequently, reliability on future urban planning, design and resilience against floods may be also affected by this misassumption. In this study, an assessment of surface flood RP across rainfall RP has been carried out at Lystrup, a urbanized...

  10. The dual effect of vegetation green-up date and strong wind on the return period of spring dust storms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Jieling; Li, Ning; Zhang, Zhengtao; Chen, Xi

    2017-08-15

    Vegetation phenology changes have been widely applied in the disaster risk assessments of the spring dust storms, and vegetation green-up date shifts have a strong influence on dust storms. However, the effect of earlier vegetation green-up dates due to climate warming on the evaluation of dust storms return periods remains an important, but poorly understood issue. In this study, we evaluate the spring dust storm return period (February to June) in Inner Mongolia, Northern China, using 165 observations of severe spring dust storm events from 16 weather stations, and regional vegetation green-up dates as an integrated factor from NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index), covering a period from 1982 to 2007, by building the bivariate Copula model. We found that the joint return period showed better fitting results than without considering the integrated factor when the actual dust storm return period is longer than 2years. Also, for extremely severe dust storm events, the gap between simulation result and actual return period can be narrowed up to 0.4888years by using integrated factor. Furthermore, the risk map based on the return period results shows that the Mandula, Zhurihe, Sunitezuoqi, Narenbaolige stations are identified as high risk areas. In this study area, land surface is extensively covered by grasses and shrubs, vegetation green-up date can play a significant role in restraining spring dust storm outbreaks. Therefore, we suggest that Copula method can become a useful tool for joint return period evaluation and risk analysis of severe dust storms. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. Estimation of seismic return periods in the Laguna Verde nuclear plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Flores R, J.H.

    1992-01-01

    The study of seismic risk in the area of the Laguna Verde Nucleo electric plant (PNLV) and its surroundings, one carries out estimating the different return periods and the occurrence probability in different intervals of time (5, 75, 100, 125, 150 years starting from the distribution of first type of Gumbel (G1) of extreme values (Burton, 1986), the value that was used to evaluate the useful life of the PNLV was of 50 years, the other periods will be occupy to evaluate 'temporal' nuclear cemeteries, that is to say for diminish the radioactive activity of the fuel assemblies already burned in the reactor pool or in a near place to the place. The seismic data that were used for the analysis were of the seismic catalog that it was elaborated from (1920-1982), around the place whose seismic half magnitude was of 5 grades Richter and a depth 65 km, these earthquakes are classified as shallow earthquakes, which are located in the continental plaque of North-America, these they are induced by the efforts of push of the plaque of Cocos, existing 36% of intermediate and 2 of deep earthquakes. (Author)

  12. A Comparison of Conditional Volatility Estimators for the ISE National 100 Index Returns

    OpenAIRE

    Köksal, Bülent

    2009-01-01

    We compare more than 1000 different volatility models in terms of their fit to the historical ISE-100 Index data and their forecasting performance of the conditional variance in an out-of-sample setting. Exponential GARCH model of Nelson (1991) with “constant mean, t-distribution, one lag moving average term” specification achieves the best overall performance for modeling the ISE-100 return volatility. The t-distribution seems to characterize the distribution of the heavy tailed returns bett...

  13. Probabilistic Models For Earthquakes With Large Return Periods In Himalaya Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaudhary, Chhavi; Sharma, Mukat Lal

    2017-12-01

    Determination of the frequency of large earthquakes is of paramount importance for seismic risk assessment as large events contribute to significant fraction of the total deformation and these long return period events with low probability of occurrence are not easily captured by classical distributions. Generally, with a small catalogue these larger events follow different distribution function from the smaller and intermediate events. It is thus of special importance to use statistical methods that analyse as closely as possible the range of its extreme values or the tail of the distributions in addition to the main distributions. The generalised Pareto distribution family is widely used for modelling the events which are crossing a specified threshold value. The Pareto, Truncated Pareto, and Tapered Pareto are the special cases of the generalised Pareto family. In this work, the probability of earthquake occurrence has been estimated using the Pareto, Truncated Pareto, and Tapered Pareto distributions. As a case study, the Himalayas whose orogeny lies in generation of large earthquakes and which is one of the most active zones of the world, has been considered. The whole Himalayan region has been divided into five seismic source zones according to seismotectonic and clustering of events. Estimated probabilities of occurrence of earthquakes have also been compared with the modified Gutenberg-Richter distribution and the characteristics recurrence distribution. The statistical analysis reveals that the Tapered Pareto distribution better describes seismicity for the seismic source zones in comparison to other distributions considered in the present study.

  14. Return period curves for extreme 5-min rainfall amounts at the Barcelona urban network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lana, X.; Casas-Castillo, M. C.; Serra, C.; Rodríguez-Solà, R.; Redaño, A.; Burgueño, A.; Martínez, M. D.

    2018-03-01

    Heavy rainfall episodes are relatively common in the conurbation of Barcelona and neighbouring cities (NE Spain), usually due to storms generated by convective phenomena in summer and eastern and south-eastern advections in autumn. Prevention of local flood episodes and right design of urban drainage have to take into account the rainfall intensity spread instead of a simple evaluation of daily rainfall amounts. The database comes from 5-min rain amounts recorded by tipping buckets in the Barcelona urban network along the years 1994-2009. From these data, extreme 5-min rain amounts are selected applying the peaks-over-threshold method for thresholds derived from both 95% percentile and the mean excess plot. The return period curves are derived from their statistical distribution for every gauge, describing with detail expected extreme 5-min rain amounts across the urban network. These curves are compared with those derived from annual extreme time series. In this way, areas in Barcelona submitted to different levels of flood risk from the point of view of rainfall intensity are detected. Additionally, global time trends on extreme 5-min rain amounts are quantified for the whole network and found as not statistically significant.

  15. Determining Storm Surge Return Periods: The Use of Evidence of Historic Events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Kristine S.; Sørensen, Carlo Sass; Schmith, Torben

    for tide gauge measurements, with 120 years of data available for the calculations. However, the oldest of these tide gauge stations was set up after a major storm surge in 1872, and no events of similar severity have occurred since. Including the evidence of the historic events from the 18th century...... changes the return period statistics, with a best estimate of a 100 year event changing from 1.5 meters (Sørensen et al. 2013) to 2.6 [2.2 – 2.8] meters (present study) in Køge just south of Copenhagen. Thus, with the tide gauge-based statistics, the storm surge on January 4 2017 was a 100 year event......, but with the revised statistics using historic evidence, much larger events can be expected. Further, we assess the very large impact of sea level rise on the storm surge statistics. As an example, according to the official statistics of southern Copenhagen, the flooding of a present day 100 year event...

  16. A Conceptual Model for Calculating the Return of Costs Invested in the Creation of an Economic Security Service, During a Short-Term Period

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Melikhova Tetiana O.

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The article is aimed at suggesting methods for calculating the short-term period of return of costs invested in creation of an economic security service. The article considers approaches to calculation of the period of return of costs, advanced at the level of enterprise, which build the methodical basis for definition of such period. At the level of structural subdivisions of enterprise, which do not produce products, it is suggested to use conditional money flow as a source of financing advanced costs. The calculation of the short-term return on investment at the enterprise level provides for: allocation of expenses for the permanent and the replacement parts during the year; determination of the production of money flow and the money flow accumulated during the year. Annual depreciation payments are the basis of fixed costs. Methods of determination of the gross, net, valid, and specified periods of return of costs, advanced during the year for introduction of an economic security service at enterprise, have been suggested.

  17. Effects of abdominal pressure on venous return: abdominal vascular zone conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takata, M; Wise, R A; Robotham, J L

    1990-12-01

    The effects of changes in abdominal pressure (Pab) on inferior vena cava (IVC) venous return were analyzed using a model of the IVC circulation based on a concept of abdominal vascular zone conditions analogous to pulmonary vascular zone conditions. We hypothesized that an increase in Pab would increase IVC venous return when the IVC pressure at the level of the diaphragm (Pivc) exceeds the sum of Pab and the critical closing transmural pressure (Pc), i.e., zone 3 conditions, but reduce IVC venous return when Pivc is below the sum of Pab and Pc, i.e., zone 2 conditions. The validity of the model was tested in 12 canine experiments with an open-chest IVC bypass. An increase in Pab produced by phrenic stimulation increased the IVC venous return when Pivc-Pab was positive but decreased the IVC venous return when Pivc - Pab was negative. The value of Pivc - Pab that separated net increases from decreases in venous return was 1.00 +/- 0.72 (SE) mmHg (n = 6). An increase in Pivc did not influence the femoral venous pressure when Pivc was lower than the sum of Pab and a constant, 0.96 +/- 0.70 mmHg (n = 6), consistent with presence of a waterfall. These results agreed closely with the predictions of the model and its computer simulation. The abdominal venous compartment appears to function with changes in Pab either as a capacitor in zone 3 conditions or as a collapsible Starling resistor with little wall tone in zone 2 conditions.

  18. Return to 1990: The cost of mitigating United States carbon emissions in the post-2000 period

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edmonds, J.A.; Kim, S.H.; MacCracken, C.N.; Sands, R.D.; Wise, M.A.

    1997-10-01

    The Second Generation Model (SGM) is employed to examine four hypothetical agreements to reduce emissions in Annex 1 nations (OECD nations plus most of the nations of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union) to levels in the neighborhood of those which existed in 1990, with obligations taking effect in the year 2010. The authors estimate the cost to the US of complying with such agreements under three distinct conditions: no trading of emissions rights, trading of emissions rights only among Annex 1 nations, and a fully global trading regime. The authors find that the marginal cost of returning to 1990 emissions levels in the US in the absence of trading opportunities is approximately $108 per metric ton carbon in 2010. The total cost in that year is approximately 0.2% of GDP. International trade in emissions permits lowers the cost of achieving any mitigation objective by equalizing the marginal cost of carbon mitigation among countries. For the four mitigation scenarios in this study, economic costs to the US remain below 1% of GDP through at least the year 2020.

  19. Value Premium and Country Risk as Dimensions to Estimate Conditional Returns: a Study of the Brazilian Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lilian de Castro Medeiros

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Asset pricing is a widely explored theme in the financial literature. Nevertheless, the phenomenon of value premium is still controversial, since although easily detected in developed and emerging markets, little is know about the economic forces that explain its existence. In this context, this article examines value premium in the Brazilian market and investigates the influence of the country risk variable as an additional risk factor for estimating conditional returns in this market not captured by value premium. For that, we employ a five-factor model, formulated by adding the country risk factor to the model of Carhart (1997. We apply the statistical procedure adopted by Fama & French (1993 to the period between 1994 and 2012, with data on nonfinancial companies listed on the BM&FBovespa. The results confirm the existence of value premium in the Brazilian market, and country risk and value premium together are significant factors to explain conditional returns.

  20. Impacts of Return-to-Work Type and Period on Job Retention in Workers with Occupational Injuries and Diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeong, Inchul; Park, Jae Bum; Kim, Hyoung Ryoul; Yoon, Jin Ha; Won, Jong Uk; Roh, Jaehoon

    2018-01-01

    Despite the necessity of job retention in achieving return-to-work (RTW) goals, many workers leave their jobs after returning to work. The objective of this study was to examine the impacts of RTW type and period on job retention in Korean workers with occupational injuries and diseases. Data were derived from the Panel Study of Worker's Compensation Insurance, including data from 2,000 systemically sampled workers who had finished recuperation in 2012; three waves of survey data were included in the analyses. Workers who returned to work (n = 1,610) were included in the analysis of the relationship between RTW type and job retention, and 664 workers who returned to their original workplaces were included in the analysis of the relationship between RTW period and job retention. The participants completed a questionnaire, and administrative data were provided by workers' compensation insurance. A Cox proportional-hazards regression analysis showed an increased hazard ratio (HR) for non-retention of 2.66 (95% confidence interval, 2.11-3.35) in reemployed workers compared to that in workers returning to their original workplaces. Among workers returning to their original workplaces, HRs for non-retention were increased in workers with a RTW period of 13-24 months (3.03 [1.52-6.04]) and > 24 months (5.33 [2.14-13.25]) compared to workers with a RTW period of ≤ 3 months. RTW type and period were significantly related to job retention, suggesting that policies for promoting job retention rate should be implemented. © 2018 The Korean Academy of Medical Sciences.

  1. STATISTICAL MODELLING OF FDC AND RETURN PERIODS TO CHARACTERISE QDF AND DESIGN THRESHOLD OF HYDROLOGICAL EXTREMES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charles Onyutha

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, firstly, flow duration curves (FDCs for hydrological extremes were calibrated for a range of aggregation levels and seasons to provide compressed statistical information for water resources management at selected temporal scales and seasons. Secondly, instead of the common approach of using return periods, T (years for deriving discharge duration frequency (QDF relationships, the method of using exceedance frequencies, E (% was introduced so as to provide answer to important question like, what is the streamflow at a given aggregation level and selected E (%? Thirdly, the concept of estimated design threshold (EDT was introduced and proposed for consideration in the risk analysis for design of water resources structures. This study was based on the long daily discharge record for the period 1950 - 2008 at station 1EF01 in Kenya, on the Nzoia river with watershed area of 12,676 km² located in the North Eastern quadrant of Lake Victoria Nile Sub Basin. In the statistical modelling of FDCs and T (years, suitable extreme value distributions (EVD were selected and calibrated to fit nearly independent high flows and low flows. The FDCs and T-curves were used to determine the EDT. The FDCs were used to model the QDF relationships. To derive QDF relationships of hydrological extremes, for a given range of aggregation levels, extreme value analysis (EVA was carried out and suitable EVD selected. Next was the calibration of parameters of the EVD and analysis of relationship between the model parameters and aggregation levels. Finally, smooth mathematical relationships were derived using little but acceptable modifications to the model parameters. Such constructed QDF relationships can be used for various applications to estimate cumulative volumes of water available during droughts or floods at various aggregation levels or E (% of hydrological extremes. The EDT when obtained for a range of aggregation levels can also be used to understand

  2. STATISTICAL MODELLING OF FDC AND RETURN PERIODS TO CHARACTERISE QDF AND DESIGN THRESHOLD OF HYDROLOGICAL EXTREMES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charles Onyutha

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, firstly, flow duration curves (FDCs for hydrological extremes were calibrated for a range of aggregation levels and seasons to provide compressed statistical information for water resources management at selected temporal scales and seasons. Secondly, instead of the common approach of using return periods, T (years for deriving discharge duration frequency (QDF relationships, the method of using exceedance frequencies, E (% was introduced so as to provide answer to important question like, what is the streamflow at a given aggregation level and selected E (%?. Thirdly, the concept of estimated design threshold (EDT was introduced and proposed for consideration in the risk analysis for design of water resources structures. This study was based on the long daily discharge record for the period 1950 – 2008 at station 1EF01 in Kenya, on the Nzoia river with watershed area of 12,676 km2 located in the North Eastern quadrant of Lake Victoria Nile Sub Basin. In the statistical modeling of FDCs and T (years, suitable extreme value distributions (EVD were selected and calibrated to fit nearly independent high flows and low flows. The FDCs and T-curves were used to determine the EDT. The FDCs were used to model the QDF relationships. To derive QDF relationships of hydrological extremes, for a given range of aggregation levels, extreme value analysis (EVA was carried out and suitable EVD selected. Next was the calibration of parameters of the EVD and analysis of relationship between the model parameters and aggregation levels. Finally, smooth mathematical relationships were derived using little but acceptable modifications to the model parameters. Such constructed QDF relationships can be used for various applications to estimate cumulative volumes of water available during droughts or floods at various aggregation levels or E (% of hydrological extremes. The EDT when obtained for a range of aggregation levels can also be used to

  3. Periodic Boundary Conditions in the ALEGRA Finite Element Code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aidun, John B.; Robinson, Allen C.; Weatherby, Joe R.

    1999-01-01

    This document describes the implementation of periodic boundary conditions in the ALEGRA finite element code. ALEGRA is an arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian multi-physics code with both explicit and implicit numerical algorithms. The periodic boundary implementation requires a consistent set of boundary input sets which are used to describe virtual periodic regions. The implementation is noninvasive to the majority of the ALEGRA coding and is based on the distributed memory parallel framework in ALEGRA. The technique involves extending the ghost element concept for interprocessor boundary communications in ALEGRA to additionally support on- and off-processor periodic boundary communications. The user interface, algorithmic details and sample computations are given

  4. Periodic solutions of asymptotically linear Hamiltonian systems without twist conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cheng Rong [Coll. of Mathematics and Physics, Nanjing Univ. of Information Science and Tech., Nanjing (China); Dept. of Mathematics, Southeast Univ., Nanjing (China); Zhang Dongfeng [Dept. of Mathematics, Southeast Univ., Nanjing (China)

    2010-05-15

    In dynamical system theory, especially in many fields of applications from mechanics, Hamiltonian systems play an important role, since many related equations in mechanics can be written in an Hamiltonian form. In this paper, we study the existence of periodic solutions for a class of Hamiltonian systems. By applying the Galerkin approximation method together with a result of critical point theory, we establish the existence of periodic solutions of asymptotically linear Hamiltonian systems without twist conditions. Twist conditions play crucial roles in the study of periodic solutions for asymptotically linear Hamiltonian systems. The lack of twist conditions brings some difficulty to the study. To the authors' knowledge, very little is known about the case, where twist conditions do not hold. (orig.)

  5. Making prudent recommendations for return-to-play in adult athletes with cardiac conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliveira, Leonardo P J; Lawless, Christine E

    2011-01-01

    Clinicians who treat millions of adult athletes throughout the world may be faced with participation or return-to-play decisions in individuals with known or suspected cardiac conditions. Here we review existing published participation guidelines and analyze emerging data from ongoing registries and population-based studies pertaining to return-to-play decisions for cardiac conditions specifically affecting adult athletes. Considerations related to return-to-play decisions will vary according to age of the athlete, with inherited disorders being the main consideration in younger adult athletes aged 18 to 40 yr, and coronary artery disease being the main consideration in older adult athletes aged 40 yr and older. Although this arbitrary division is based on the epidemiology of underlying heart disease in these populations, the essential return-to-play decision process for both age groups is quite similar. Among the most widely used guidelines to make return-to-play decisions in this group of athletes are the 36th Bethesda Conference Eligibility Recommendations for Competitive Athletes with Cardiovascular Abnormalities. These have long been considered the "gold standard" for determining return-to-play decisions in young athletes in the United States. Other guidelines are available for unique purposes, including The European Society of Cardiology guidelines, and the American Heart Association published recommendations regarding participation of young patients (younger than 40 yr) with genetic cardiovascular diseases in recreational sports. The latter are consistent with the 36th Bethesda guidelines and cover common genetically based diseases such as inherited cardiomyopathies, channelopathy, and connective tissue disorders like Marfan's syndrome. The consensus on masters athletes (older than 40 yr) provides return-to-play decisions for a wide variety of conditioned states, from elite older athletes to walk-up athletes. For any adult athlete with a cardiac condition

  6. The probability of return conditional on migration duration: evidence from Kosovo

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kotorri Mrika

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to conceptualise the migration duration decision within the expected utility maximisation framework, and from that to derive and estimate an empirical proposition. For this purpose, the conceptual framework in Kotorri (2015 is extended where households decide to return to the home country conditional on their migration duration. In the empirical analysis, the Cox proportional hazards model is employed. This analysis is the first to investigate migration duration based on a random sample stemming from the Kosovo census of population conducted in 2011. The findings suggest rather mixed support for the household approach. The hazard to return decreases with income but not nonlinearly. The results indicate that household return migration behaviour is influenced by demographic characteristics, psychic income, and political factors.

  7. Women in post-trafficking services in moldova: diagnostic interviews over two time periods to assess returning women's mental health

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gorceag Lilia T

    2011-04-01

    found to have co-morbid PTSD or other forms of anxiety and depression immediately post-return should be offered evidenced-based mental health treatment for at least the standard 12-month period of rehabilitation.

  8. Urban flood return period assessment through rainfall-flood response modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murla Tuyls, Damian; Thorndahl, Søren

    2017-04-01

    Intense rainfall can often cause severe floods, especially in urbanized areas, where population density or large impermeable areas are found. In this context, floods can generate a direct impact in a social-environmental-economic viewpoint. Traditionally, in design of Urban Drainage Systems (UDS), correlation between return period (RP) of a given rainfall and RP of its consequent flood has been assumed to be linear (e.g. DS/EN752 (2008)). However, this is not always the case. Complex UDS, where diverse hydraulic infrastructures are often found, increase the heterogeneity of system response, which may cause an alteration of the mentioned correlation. Consequently, reliability on future urban planning, design and resilience against floods may be also affected by this misassumption. In this study, an assessment of surface flood RP across rainfall RP has been carried out at Lystrup, a urbanized catchment area of 440ha and 10.400inhab. located in Jutland (Denmark), which has received the impact of several pluvial flooding in the last recent years. A historical rainfall dataset from the last 35 years from two different rain gauges located at 2 and 10 km from the study area has been provided by the Danish Wastewater Pollution Committee and the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI). The most extreme 25 rainfall events have been selected through a two-step multi-criteria procedure, ensuring an adequate variability of rainfall, from extreme high peak storms with a short duration to moderate rainfall with longer duration. In addition, a coupled 1D/2D surface and network UDS model of the catchment area developed in an integrated MIKE URBAN and MIKE Flood model (DHI 2014), considering both permeable and impermeable areas, in combination with a DTM (2x2m res.) has been used to study and assess in detail flood RP. Results show an ambiguous relation between rainfall RP and flood response. Local flood levels, flood area and volume RP estimates should therefore not be neglected in

  9. Effects of storage conditions and storage period on nutritional and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In this work, the effects of storage conditions and storage period on the nutritional and other qualities of stored yam tubers were investigated. ... environment, signs of deterioration of the tuber such as sprouting, weight loss and rotting and some ...

  10. Modeling Conditional Volatility of Indian Banking Sector’s Stock Market Returns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Singh Amanjot

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The study attempts to capture conditional variance of Indian banking sector’s stock market returns across the years 2005 to 2015 by employing different GARCH based symmetric and asymmetric models. The results report existence of persistency as well as leverage effects in the banking sector return volatility. On an expected note, the global financial crisis increased conditional volatility in the Indian banking sector during the years 2007 to 2009; further evidenced from Markov regime switches. The exponential GARCH (EGARCH model is found to be the best fit model capturing time-varying variance in the banking sector. The results support strong implications for the market participants at the time of devising portfolio management strategies.

  11. Multi-Period Mean-Variance Portfolio Selection with Uncertain Time Horizon When Returns Are Serially Correlated

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ling Zhang

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available We study a multi-period mean-variance portfolio selection problem with an uncertain time horizon and serial correlations. Firstly, we embed the nonseparable multi-period optimization problem into a separable quadratic optimization problem with uncertain exit time by employing the embedding technique of Li and Ng (2000. Then we convert the later into an optimization problem with deterministic exit time. Finally, using the dynamic programming approach, we explicitly derive the optimal strategy and the efficient frontier for the dynamic mean-variance optimization problem. A numerical example with AR(1 return process is also presented, which shows that both the uncertainty of exit time and the serial correlations of returns have significant impacts on the optimal strategy and the efficient frontier.

  12. A new method for estimating maximum wind gust speed with a given return period and a high areal resolution

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Pop, Lukáš; Sokol, Zbyněk; Hanslian, David

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 158, November (2016), s. 51-60 ISSN 0167-6105 R&D Projects: GA ČR GAP504/10/0843 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : wind gusts * extreme wind map * return period * gumbel distribution * extreme value analysis Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 2.049, year: 2016 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167610515301677

  13. Umov-Mandelshtam radiation conditions in elastic periodic waveguides

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nazarov, S. A., E-mail: srgnazarov@yahoo.co.uk [St. Petersburg State University, Institute of Problems of Mechanical Engineering of the Russian Academy of Sciences, St. Petersburg (Russian Federation)

    2014-07-31

    We study settings of the problem of elasticity theory on wave propagation in an elastic periodic waveguide with radiation conditions at infinity. We present a mathematical theory for energy radiation conditions based on Mandelshtam's energy principle and the Umov-Poynting vector, as well as using the technique of weighted spaces with detached asymptotics and the energy transfer symplectic form. We establish that in a threshold situation, that is, when standing and polynomial elastic Floquet waves appear, the well-known limiting absorption principle, in contrast to the energy principle that is being applied, cannot identify the direction of the wave's motion. Bibliography: 37 titles. (paper)

  14. Groundwater flow modelling of periods with temperate climate conditions - Forsmark

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Joyce, Steven; Simpson, Trevor; Hartley, Lee; Applegate, David; Hoek, Jaap; Jackson, Peter; Swan, David (Serco Technical Consulting Services (United Kingdom)); Marsic, Niko (Kemakta Konsult AB (Sweden)); Follin, Sven (SF GeoLogic AB (Sweden))

    2010-11-15

    As a part of the license application for a final repository for spent nuclear fuel at Forsmark, the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) has undertaken a series of groundwater flow modelling studies. These represent time periods with different climate conditions and the simulations carried out contribute to the overall evaluation of the repository design and long-term radiological safety. This report concerns the modelling of a repository at the Forsmark site during temperate conditions; i.e. from post-closure and throughout the temperate period up until the receding shoreline leaves the modelling domain at around 12,000 AD. The collation and implementation of onsite hydrogeological and hydrogeochemical data from previous reports are used in the construction of a hydrogeological base case (reference case conceptualisation) and then in an examination of various areas of uncertainty within the current understanding by a series of model variants. The hydrogeological base case models at three different scales, 'repository', 'site' and 'regional', make use of continuous porous medium (CPM), equivalent continuous porous medium (ECPM) and discrete fracture network (DFN) models. The use of hydrogeological models allow for the investigation of the groundwater flow from a deep disposal facility to the biosphere and for the calculation of performance measures that will provide an input to the site performance assessment. The focus of the study described in this report has been to perform numerical simulations of the hydrogeological system from post-closure and throughout the temperate period. Besides providing quantitative results for the immediate temperate period following post-closure, these results are also intended to give a qualitative indication of the evolution of the groundwater system during future temperate periods within an ongoing cycle of glacial/inter-glacial events

  15. Return momentum effect on reactor coolant water level distribution during mid-loop conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seo, Jae Kwang; Yang, Jae Young; Park, Goon Cherl

    2001-01-01

    An accurate prediction of the Reactor Coolant System( RCS) water level is of importance in the determination of the allowable operating range to ensure safety during mid-loop operations. However, complex hydrualic phenomena induced by the Shutdown Cooling System (SCS) return momentum causes different water levels from those in the loop where the water level indicators are located. This was apparently observed at the pre-core cold hydro test of the Younggwang Nuclear Unit 3 (YGN 3) in Korea. In this study, in order to analytically understand the effect of the SCS return momentum on the RCS water level distribution, a model using a one-dimensional momentum and energy conservation for cylindrical channel, hydraulic jump in operating cold leg, water level build-up at the Reactor Vessel (RV) inlet nozzle, Bernoulli constant in downcomer region, and total water volume conservation has been developed. The model predicts the RCS water levels at various RCS locations during the mid-loop conditions and the calculation results were compared with the test data. The analysis shows that the hydraulic jump in the operating cold legs, in conjuction with the pressure drop throughout the RCS, is the main cause creating the water level differences at various RCS locations. The prediction results provide good explanations for the test data and show the significant effect of the SCS return momentum on the RCS water levels

  16. Groundwater flow modelling of periods with temperate climate conditions - Laxemar

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Joyce, Steven; Simpson, Trevor; Hartley, Lee; Applegate, David; Hoek, Jaap; Jackson, Peter; Roberts, David; Swan, David; Gylling, Bjoern; Marsic, Niko; Rhen, Ingvar

    2010-12-01

    As a part of the license application for a final repository for spent nuclear fuel at Forsmark, the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) has undertaken a series of groundwater flow modelling studies. These represent time periods with different hydraulic conditions and the simulations carried out contribute to the overall evaluation of the repository design and long-term radiological safety. This report concerns the modelling of a repository at the Laxemar-Simpevarp site during temperate climate conditions as a comparison to corresponding modelling carried out for Forsmark /Joyce et al. 2010/. The collation and implementation of onsite hydrogeological and hydrogeochemical data from previous reports are used in the construction of a Hydrogeological base case (reference case conceptualisation) and then an examination of various areas of uncertainty within the current understanding by a series of model variants. The Hydrogeological base case models at three different scales, 'repository', 'site' and 'regional' make use of a discrete fracture network (DFN) and equivalent continuous porous medium (ECPM) models. The use of hydrogeological models allow for the investigation of the groundwater flow from a deep disposal facility to the biosphere and for the calculation of performance measures that will provide an input to the site performance assessment. The focus of the study described in this report has been to perform numerical simulations of the hydrogeological system from post-closure and throughout the temperate period up until the receding shoreline leaves the modelling domain at around 15,000 AD. Besides providing quantitative results for the immediate temperate period following post-closure, these results are also intended to give a qualitative indication of the evolution of the groundwater system during future temperate periods within an ongoing cycle of glacial/inter-glacial events

  17. Groundwater flow modelling of periods with temperate climate conditions - Laxemar

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Joyce, Steven; Simpson, Trevor; Hartley, Lee; Applegate, David; Hoek, Jaap; Jackson, Peter; Roberts, David; Swan, David (Serco Technical Consulting Services (United Kingdom)); Gylling, Bjoern; Marsic, Niko (Kemakta Konsult AB, Stockholm (Sweden)); Rhen, Ingvar (SWECO Environment AB, Falun (Sweden))

    2010-12-15

    As a part of the license application for a final repository for spent nuclear fuel at Forsmark, the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) has undertaken a series of groundwater flow modelling studies. These represent time periods with different hydraulic conditions and the simulations carried out contribute to the overall evaluation of the repository design and long-term radiological safety. This report concerns the modelling of a repository at the Laxemar-Simpevarp site during temperate climate conditions as a comparison to corresponding modelling carried out for Forsmark /Joyce et al. 2010/. The collation and implementation of onsite hydrogeological and hydrogeochemical data from previous reports are used in the construction of a Hydrogeological base case (reference case conceptualisation) and then an examination of various areas of uncertainty within the current understanding by a series of model variants. The Hydrogeological base case models at three different scales, 'repository', 'site' and 'regional' make use of a discrete fracture network (DFN) and equivalent continuous porous medium (ECPM) models. The use of hydrogeological models allow for the investigation of the groundwater flow from a deep disposal facility to the biosphere and for the calculation of performance measures that will provide an input to the site performance assessment. The focus of the study described in this report has been to perform numerical simulations of the hydrogeological system from post-closure and throughout the temperate period up until the receding shoreline leaves the modelling domain at around 15,000 AD. Besides providing quantitative results for the immediate temperate period following post-closure, these results are also intended to give a qualitative indication of the evolution of the groundwater system during future temperate periods within an ongoing cycle of glacial/inter-glacial events

  18. Conditional Cooperation and the Marginal per Capita Return in Public Good Games

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edward J. Cartwright

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available We investigate experimentally whether the extent of conditional cooperation in public good games depends on the marginal per capita return (MPCR to the public good and type of game. The MPCR is varied from 0.2 to 0.4 to 0.8. The ‘standard’ game, in which three players contribute before a follower, is compared with a leader-follower game, in which one player leads and three follow. Even though we observe less conditional cooperation for an MPCR of 0.2, the prevalence of conditional cooperation remains relatively stable to changes in the MPCR and game timing. In contrast, the level of MPCR has a strong effect on unconditional contributions. Our results highlight the critical role played by leaders in a public good game.

  19. Thermal properties of nuclear matter under the periodic boundary condition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Otuka, Naohiko; Ohnishi, Akira

    1999-01-01

    We present the thermal properties of nuclear matter under the periodic boundary condition by the use of our hadronic nucleus-nucleus cascade model (HANDEL) which is developed to treat relativistic heavy-ion collisions from BNL-AGS to CERN-SPS. We first show some results of p-p scattering calculation in our new version which is improved in order to treat isospin ratio and multiplicity more accurately. We then display the results of calculation of nuclear matter with baryon density ρ b = 0.77 fm 3 at some energy densities. Time evolution of particle abundance and temperature are shown. (author)

  20. Uncertainty in return period analysis of combined sewer overflow effects using embedded Monte Carlo simulations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grum, M.; Aalderink, R.H.

    1999-01-01

    The rerun periods of detrimental effects ate often used as design criteria in urban storm water management. Considerable uncertainty is associated with the models used. This is either ignored or pooled with the inherent event to event variation such as rainfall depth It is here argued that

  1. Cross-polarization microwave radar return at severe wind conditions: laboratory model and geophysical model function.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Troitskaya, Yuliya; Abramov, Victor; Ermoshkin, Alexey; Zuikova, Emma; Kazakov, Vassily; Sergeev, Daniil; Kandaurov, Alexandr

    2014-05-01

    Satellite remote sensing is one of the main techniques of monitoring severe weather conditions over the ocean. The principal difficulty of the existing algorithms of retrieving wind based on dependence of microwave backscattering cross-section on wind speed (Geophysical Model Function, GMF) is due to its saturation at winds exceeding 25 - 30 m/s. Recently analysis of dual- and quad-polarization C-band radar return measured from satellite Radarsat-2 suggested that the cross-polarized radar return has much higher sensitivity to the wind speed than co-polarized back scattering [1] and conserved sensitivity to wind speed at hurricane conditions [2]. Since complete collocation of these data was not possible and time difference in flight legs and SAR images acquisition was up to 3 hours, these two sets of data were compared in [2] only statistically. The main purpose of this paper is investigation of the functional dependence of cross-polarized radar cross-section on the wind speed in laboratory experiment. Since cross-polarized radar return is formed due to scattering at small-scale structures of the air-sea interface (short-crested waves, foam, sprays, etc), which are well reproduced in laboratory conditions, then the approach based on laboratory experiment on radar scattering of microwaves at the water surface under hurricane wind looks feasible. The experiments were performed in the Wind-wave flume located on top of the Large Thermostratified Tank of the Institute of Applied Physics, where the airflow was produced in the flume with the straight working part of 10 m and operating cross section 0.40?0.40 sq. m, the axis velocity can be varied from 5 to 25 m/s. Microwave measurements were carried out by a coherent Doppler X-band (3.2 cm) scatterometer with the consequent receive of linear polarizations. Experiments confirmed higher sensitivity to the wind speed of the cross-polarized radar return. Simultaneously parameters of the air flow in the turbulent boundary layer

  2. PIV measurements in a compact return diffuser under multi-conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhou, L; Lu, W G; Shi, W D

    2013-01-01

    Due to the complex three-dimensional geometries of impellers and diffusers, their design is a delicate and difficult task. Slight change could lead to significant changes in hydraulic performance and internal flow structure. Conversely, the grasp of the pump's internal flow pattern could benefit from pump design improvement. The internal flow fields in a compact return diffuser have been investigated experimentally under multi-conditions. A special Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) test rig is designed, and the two-dimensional PIV measurements are successfully conducted in the diffuser mid-plane to capture the complex flow patterns. The analysis of the obtained results has been focused on the flow structure in diffuser, especially under part-load conditions. The vortex and recirculation flow patterns in diffuser are captured and analysed accordingly. Strong flow separation and back flow appeared at the part-load flow rates. Under the design and over-load conditions, the flow fields in diffuser are uniform, and the flow separation and back flow appear at the part-load flow rates, strong back flow is captured at one diffuser passage under 0.2Q des

  3. PIV measurements in a compact return diffuser under multi-conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, L.; Lu, W. G.; Shi, W. D.

    2013-12-01

    Due to the complex three-dimensional geometries of impellers and diffusers, their design is a delicate and difficult task. Slight change could lead to significant changes in hydraulic performance and internal flow structure. Conversely, the grasp of the pump's internal flow pattern could benefit from pump design improvement. The internal flow fields in a compact return diffuser have been investigated experimentally under multi-conditions. A special Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) test rig is designed, and the two-dimensional PIV measurements are successfully conducted in the diffuser mid-plane to capture the complex flow patterns. The analysis of the obtained results has been focused on the flow structure in diffuser, especially under part-load conditions. The vortex and recirculation flow patterns in diffuser are captured and analysed accordingly. Strong flow separation and back flow appeared at the part-load flow rates. Under the design and over-load conditions, the flow fields in diffuser are uniform, and the flow separation and back flow appear at the part-load flow rates, strong back flow is captured at one diffuser passage under 0.2Qdes.

  4. On the Empirical Importance of the Conditional Skewness Assumption in Modelling the Relationship between Risk and Return

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pipień, M.

    2008-09-01

    We present the results of an application of Bayesian inference in testing the relation between risk and return on the financial instruments. On the basis of the Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model, proposed by Merton we built a general sampling distribution suitable in analysing this relationship. The most important feature of our assumptions is that the skewness of the conditional distribution of returns is used as an alternative source of relation between risk and return. This general specification relates to Skewed Generalized Autoregressive Conditionally Heteroscedastic-in-Mean model. In order to make conditional distribution of financial returns skewed we considered the unified approach based on the inverse probability integral transformation. In particular, we applied hidden truncation mechanism, inverse scale factors, order statistics concept, Beta and Bernstein distribution transformations and also a constructive method. Based on the daily excess returns on the Warsaw Stock Exchange Index we checked the empirical importance of the conditional skewness assumption on the relation between risk and return on the Warsaw Stock Market. We present posterior probabilities of all competing specifications as well as the posterior analysis of the positive sign of the tested relationship.

  5. Effects of individual pre-fledging traits and environmental conditions on return patterns in juvenile king penguins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saraux, Claire; Viblanc, Vincent A; Hanuise, Nicolas; Le Maho, Yvon; Le Bohec, Céline

    2011-01-01

    Despite the importance of early life stages in individuals' life history and population dynamics, very few studies have focused on the constraints to which these juvenile traits are subjected. Based on 10 years of automatic monitoring of over 2500 individuals, we present the first study on the effects of environmental conditions and individual pre-fledging traits on the post-fledging return of non-banded king penguins to their natal colony. Juvenile king penguins returned exclusively within one of the three austral summers following their departure. A key finding is that return rates (range 68-87%) were much higher than previously assumed for this species, importantly meaning that juvenile survival is very close to that of adults. Such high figures suggest little juvenile dispersal, and selection occurring mostly prior to fledging in king penguins. Pre-fledging conditions had a strong quadratic impact on juvenile return rates. As expected, cohorts reared under very unfavourable years (as inferred by the breeding success of the colony) exhibited low return rates but surprisingly, so did those fledged under very favourable conditions. Juvenile sojourns away from the colony were shorter under warm conditions and subsequent return rates higher, suggesting a positive effect of climate warming. The longer the post-fledging trip (1, 2 or 3 years), the earlier in the summer birds returned to their natal colony and the longer they stayed before leaving for the winter journey. The presence of juveniles in the colony was more than twice the duration required for moulting purposes, yet none attempted breeding in the year of their first return. Juvenile presence in the colony may be important for acquiring knowledge on the social and physical colonial environment and may play an important part in the learning process of mating behaviour. Further studies are required to investigate its potential implications on other life-history traits such as recruitment age.

  6. Return to work outcomes for workers with mental health conditions: A retrospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prang, Khic-Houy; Bohensky, Megan; Smith, Peter; Collie, Alex

    2016-01-01

    The aims of this study were to describe predictors of sustained return to work (RTW) among a cohort of workers with compensated work-related mental health conditions (MHCs); and to examine predictors of subsequent absences due to the same condition. This study was a retrospective analysis of compensation claims data in Victoria, Australia. We selected workers with an accepted wage replacement claim due to a work-related MHC from 1 January 2002 to 31 December 2009, with two years of follow-up data. We identified 8358 workers meeting our inclusion criteria. The median age of workers was 44 years (Interquartile range (IQR): 36-51) and 56% were female. In a multivariable Cox regression analysis, older age, being from a small organisation, working in some specific industry segments, consulting a psychiatrist or psychologist, using medications, and having a previous claim were all associated with a delayed RTW. Workers experiencing work pressure, assault/workplace violence or other mental stress factors, working in the public administration and safety industry and having a medical incapacity certification between 3-4 days and 5-7 days had a higher rate of multiple RTW attempts. This study identified a number of risk factors associated with a delayed RTW and multiple attempts at RTW. Predictors may help identify high-risk groups and facilitate the RTW process of workers with MHCs. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Estimation of seismic return periods in the Laguna Verde nuclear plant; Estimacion de periodos de retorno sismico en la PNLV

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Flores R, J.H

    1992-01-15

    The study of seismic risk in the area of the Laguna Verde Nucleo electric plant (PNLV) and its surroundings, one carries out estimating the different return periods and the occurrence probability in different intervals of time (5, 75, 100, 125, 150 years starting from the distribution of first type of Gumbel (G1) of extreme values (Burton, 1986), the value that was used to evaluate the useful life of the PNLV was of 50 years, the other periods will be occupy to evaluate 'temporal' nuclear cemeteries, that is to say for diminish the radioactive activity of the fuel assemblies already burned in the reactor pool or in a near place to the place. The seismic data that were used for the analysis were of the seismic catalog that it was elaborated from (1920-1982), around the place whose seismic half magnitude was of 5 grades Richter and a depth 65 km, these earthquakes are classified as shallow earthquakes, which are located in the continental plaque of North-America, these they are induced by the efforts of push of the plaque of Cocos, existing 36% of intermediate and 2 of deep earthquakes. (Author)

  8. Assessing spatial patterns of extreme droughts associated to return periods from observed dataset: Case study of Segura River Basin (Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    García Galiano, Sandra G.; Diego Giraldo Osorio, Juan

    2013-04-01

    In basins of South-eastern Spain, such as the Segura River Basin (SRB), a strong decrease in runoff from the end of the 1970s has been observed. In the SRB, due to intensive reforestation aimed at halting desertification and erosion, added to climate variability and change, the default assumption of stationarity in water resources systems cannot be guaranteed. Therefore there is an important need for improvement in the ability of monitoring and predicting the impacts associated with the change of hydrologic regime. It is thus necessary to apply non-stationary probabilistic models, which are able to reproduce probability density functions whose parameters vary with time. From a high-resolution daily gridded rainfall dataset of more than 50 years (1950-2007 time period), the spatial distribution of lengths of maximum dry spells for several thresholds are assessed, applying GAMLSS (Generalized Additive Models for Location Scale and Shape) models at grid site. Results reveal an intensification of extreme drought events in some headbasins of the SRB important for water supply. The identification of spatial patterns of drought hazards at basin scale, associated to return periods, contribute to designing strategies of drought contingency preparedness and recovery operations, which are the leading edge of adaptation strategies.

  9. Estimation of seismic return periods in the Laguna Verde nuclear plant; Estimacion de periodos de retorno sismico en la PNLV

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Flores R, J H

    1992-01-15

    The study of seismic risk in the area of the Laguna Verde Nucleo electric plant (PNLV) and its surroundings, one carries out estimating the different return periods and the occurrence probability in different intervals of time (5, 75, 100, 125, 150 years starting from the distribution of first type of Gumbel (G1) of extreme values (Burton, 1986), the value that was used to evaluate the useful life of the PNLV was of 50 years, the other periods will be occupy to evaluate 'temporal' nuclear cemeteries, that is to say for diminish the radioactive activity of the fuel assemblies already burned in the reactor pool or in a near place to the place. The seismic data that were used for the analysis were of the seismic catalog that it was elaborated from (1920-1982), around the place whose seismic half magnitude was of 5 grades Richter and a depth 65 km, these earthquakes are classified as shallow earthquakes, which are located in the continental plaque of North-America, these they are induced by the efforts of push of the plaque of Cocos, existing 36% of intermediate and 2 of deep earthquakes. (Author)

  10. A system for generating long streamflow records for study of floods of long return period: Phase 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Franz, D.D.; Kraeger, B.A.; Linsley, R.K.

    1989-02-01

    Knowledge of the return periods of large floods is required to make risk analyses for nuclear power plants subject to flooding from rivers. The system reported here combined the stochastic simulation of hourly rainfall data and daily pan evaporation data with the deterministic simulation of streamflow by using the synthetic rainfall and evaporation data as input to a calibrated rainfall runoff model. The sequence of annual maximum flood peaks from a synthetic record of 10,000 years or more was then analyzed to obtain estimates of flood frequency. The reasonableness of the flood frequency results must be evaluated on the degree of mimicry of the key characteristics of the observed rainfall data and the ability of the rainfall-runoff model to mimic the observed flood frequency during the calibration period. On this basis, the flood frequency results appeared to be a reasonable extrapolation of the data used in defining the model parameters. There is a need to develop regional parameters for the stochastic models and to conduct research on the relationship between the stochastic structure of rainfall and stochastic structure of flood frequency. The methodology is applicable, assuming a highly skilled analyst, to watersheds similar to those already tested

  11. Clay catalyzed RNA synthesis under Martian conditions: Application for Mars return samples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joshi, Prakash C; Dubey, Krishna; Aldersley, Michael F; Sausville, Meaghen

    2015-06-26

    Catalysis by montmorillonites clay minerals is regarded as a feasible mechanism for the abiotic production and polymerization of key biomolecules on early Earth. We have investigated a montmorillonite-catalyzed reaction of the 5'-phosphorimidazolide of nucleosides as a model to probe prebiotic synthesis of RNA-type oligomers. Here we show that this model is specific for the generation of RNA oligomers despite deoxy-mononucleotides adsorbing equally well onto the montmorillonite catalytic surfaces. Optimum catalytic activity was observed over a range of pH (6-9) and salinity (1 ± 0.2 M NaCl). When the weathering steps of early Earth that generated catalytic montmorillonite were modified to meet Martian soil conditions, the catalytic activity remained intact without altering the surface layer charge. Additionally, the formation of oligomers up to tetramer was detected using as little as 0.1 mg of Na⁺-montmorillonite, suggesting that the catalytic activity of a Martian clay return sample can be investigated with sub-milligram scale samples. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Projected Changes in Temperature and Precipitation Extremes over China as Measured by 50-yr Return Values and Periods Based on a CMIP5 Ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Ying; Gao, Xuejie; Giorgi, Filippo; Zhou, Botao; Shi, Ying; Wu, Jie; Zhang, Yongxiang

    2018-04-01

    Future changes in the 50-yr return level for temperature and precipitation extremes over mainland China are investigated based on a CMIP5 multi-model ensemble for RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The following indices are analyzed: TXx and TNn (the annual maximum and minimum of daily maximum and minimum surface temperature), RX5day (the annual maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation) and CDD (maximum annual number of consecutive dry days). After first validating the model performance, future changes in the 50-yr return values and return periods for these indices are investigated along with the inter-model spread. Multi-model median changes show an increase in the 50-yr return values of TXx and a decrease for TNn, more specifically, by the end of the 21st century under RCP8.5, the present day 50-yr return period of warm events is reduced to 1.2 yr, while extreme cold events over the country are projected to essentially disappear. A general increase in RX5day 50-yr return values is found in the future. By the end of the 21st century under RCP8.5, events of the present RX5day 50-yr return period are projected to reduce to China. Changes in CDD-50 show a dipole pattern over China, with a decrease in the values and longer return periods in the north, and vice versa in the south. Our study also highlights the need for further improvements in the representation of extreme events in climate models to assess the future risks and engineering design related to large-scale infrastructure in China.

  13. Introduction and application of non-stationary standardized precipitation index considering probability distribution function and return period

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Junehyeong; Sung, Jang Hyun; Lim, Yoon-Jin; Kang, Hyun-Suk

    2018-05-01

    The widely used meteorological drought index, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), basically assumes stationarity, but recent changes in the climate have led to a need to review this hypothesis. In this study, a new non-stationary SPI that considers not only the modified probability distribution parameter but also the return period under the non-stationary process was proposed. The results were evaluated for two severe drought cases during the last 10 years in South Korea. As a result, SPIs considered that the non-stationary hypothesis underestimated the drought severity than the stationary SPI despite that these past two droughts were recognized as significantly severe droughts. It may be caused by that the variances of summer and autumn precipitation become larger over time then it can make the probability distribution wider than before. This implies that drought expressions by statistical index such as SPI can be distorted by stationary assumption and cautious approach is needed when deciding drought level considering climate changes.

  14. Chronic treatment with fluoxetine prevents the return of extinguished auditory-cued conditioned fear.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deschaux, Olivier; Spennato, Guillaume; Moreau, Jean-Luc; Garcia, René

    2011-05-01

    We have recently shown that post-extinction exposure of rats to a sub-threshold reminder shock can reactivate extinguished context-related freezing and found that chronic treatment with fluoxetine before fear extinction prevents this phenomenon. In the present study, we examined whether these findings would be confirmed with auditory fear conditioning. Rats were initially submitted to a session of five tone-shock pairings with either a 0.7- or 0.1-mA shock and underwent, 3 days later, a session of 20 tone-alone trials. At the beginning of this latter session, we observed cue-conditioned freezing in rats that received the strong, but not the weak, shock. At the end, both groups (strong and weak shocks) displayed similar low levels of freezing, indicating fear extinction in rats exposed to the strong shock. These rats exhibited again high levels of cue-evoked freezing when exposed to three tone-shock pairings with 0.1-mA shock. This reemergence of cue-conditioned fear was completely abolished by chronic (over a 21-day period) fluoxetine treatment which spared, when administered before the initial fear conditioning, the original tone-shock association. These data extend our previous findings and suggest that chronic fluoxetine treatment favor extinction memory by dampening the reactivation of the original tone-shock association.

  15. Measurement of Vehicle Air Conditioning Pull-Down Period

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thomas, John F [ORNL; Huff, Shean P [ORNL; Moore, Larry G [ORNL; West, Brian H [ORNL

    2016-08-01

    Air conditioner usage was characterized for high heat-load summer conditions during short driving trips using a 2009 Ford Explorer and a 2009 Toyota Corolla. Vehicles were parked in the sun with windows closed to allow the cabin to become hot. Experiments were conducted by entering the instrumented vehicles in this heated condition and driving on-road with the windows up and the air conditioning set to maximum cooling, maximum fan speed and the air flow setting to recirculate cabin air rather than pull in outside humid air. The main purpose was to determine the length of time the air conditioner system would remain at or very near maximum cooling power under these severe-duty conditions. Because of the variable and somewhat uncontrolled nature of the experiments, they serve only to show that for short vehicle trips, air conditioning can remain near or at full cooling capacity for 10-minutes or significantly longer and the cabin may be uncomfortably warm during much of this time.

  16. Pengaruh Rasio Modal Saham Terhadap Return Saham Perusahaan-Perusahaan Telekomunikasi Go Public di Indonesia Periode 2007

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Wijaya

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this research is to know the influence of market value ratio to return in the telecommunication go public companies in Indonesia. This research uses multiple regression linear method, examination of hypothesis by using t test, F test and R2 test. The result of this analysis indicates that simultaneously all independent variables (ROE, PER, BVPS, and PTBV do not have a positive and significant effect to dependent variable (return. It means that return variable influenced by other variables which do not included in this research. Partially, all independent variables (ROE, PER, BVPS, and PTBV do not have a positive and significant effect to dependent variable (return Abstract in Bahasa Indonesia: Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui pengaruh rasio modal saham terhadap return pada perusahaan-perusahaan telekomunikasi terbuka di Indonesia. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode analisis regresi linier berganda, pengujian hipotesis dengan menggunakan uji t, uji F, dan uji R2. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa secara simultan (secara bersama-sama, semua variabel independen (ROE, PER, BVPS, dan PTBV secara signifikan dan positif tidak memiliki pengaruh terhadap variabel dependen (return. Hal ini berarti bahwa variabel return dipengaruhi oleh variabel-variabel lain yang tidak termasuk dalam penelitian ini. Secara parsial, semua variabel independen (ROE, PER, BVPS, dan PTBV tidak memiliki pengaruh secara signifikan dan positif terhadap variabel dependen (Return. Kata kunci: Laba atas ekuitas, harga-laba, nilai buku per lembar saham, harga saham per nilai buku, imbal hasil

  17. The conditional returns to origin-country human capital among Turkish and Moroccan immigrants in Belgium.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanas, Agnieszka; van Tubergen, Frank

    2014-07-01

    This study extends the analysis of the economic returns to pre-migration human capital by examining the role of the receiving context, co-ethnic residential concentration, and post-migration investments in human capital. It uses large-scale survey data on Turkish and Moroccan immigrants in Belgium. The analysis demonstrates that regarding employment, Moroccan immigrants, that is, those originating from former French colonies receive larger returns to their origin-country education and work experience in French- vs. Dutch-speaking regions. Other than the positive interaction effect between co-ethnic residential concentration and work experience on employment, there is little evidence that co-ethnic concentration increases the returns to origin-country human capital. Speaking the host-country language facilitates economic returns to origin-country work experience. Conversely, immigrants who acquire host-country credentials and work experience receive lower returns to origin-country education and experience, suggesting that, at least among low-skilled immigrants, pre- and post-migration human capital substitute rather than complement each other. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. A Comparative Study on the Positive Lightning Return Stroke Electric Fields in Different Meteorological Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chin-Leong Wooi

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Positive cloud-ground lightning is considerably more complex and less studied compared to the negative lightning. This paper aims to measure and characterize the significant parameters of positive return strokes electric field, namely, the zero-to-peak rise time, 10–90% rise time, slow front duration, fast transition rise time (10–90%, zero-crossing time, and opposite polarity overshoot relative to peak. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first time such detailed characteristics of positive lightning in Malaysia are thoroughly analyzed. A total of 41 positive lightning flashes containing 48 return strokes were analyzed. The average multiplicity is 1.2 strokes per flash. The majority of positive lightning was initiated from the primary positive charge rather than as a byproduct of in-cloud discharges. The cumulative probability distribution of rise time parameters, opposite polarity overshoot relative to peak, and slow front amplitude relative to peak are presented. A comparison between studies in four countries representing tropic, subtropic, and temperate regions was also carried out. Measured parameters in Florida, Sweden, and Japan are generally lower than those in Malaysia. Positive lightning occurrences in tropical regions should be further studied and analyzed to improve our current understanding on positive return strokes.

  19. ANALISIS PENGARUH LDR, NPL DAN OPERATIONAL EFFICIENCY RATIO TERHADAP RETURN ON ASSETS PADA BANK DEVISA DI INDONESIA PERIODE 2010-2012

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hamidah Hamidah

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available This research is performed on order to test analysis the influence of the Loan to Deposit Ratio (LDR, Non Performing Loan (NPL and Operational Efficiency Ratio (OER toward Return On Asset (ROA On Foreign Exchange Banks In Indonesia Period 2010-2012. Methodology research as the sample used purposive sampling, sample was accrued from foreign banks in Indonesia. Data analysis with multi linear regression of ordinary least square and hypotheses test used t-statistic and F statistic, a classic assumption examination to test the hypotheses.Based on normality test, multicolinearity test, heterosskedasticity test and auto correlation test were not found variables that deviate from the classical assumptions, this indicate that the available data has fulfill the condition to use multi linear regression model. This result of research show that variable LDR and NPL partially have positive influence but not significant toward ROA. Variable OERpartially have negative significant influence toward ROA. Variable LDR, NPL and OER simultaneously have significant influence toward ROA.

  20. An Exploration of the Factors Considered When Forming Expectations for Returning to Work following Sickness Absence Due to a Musculoskeletal Condition.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amanda E Young

    Full Text Available Workers' own expectations for returning to work following a period of sickness absence have been found to be one of the best predictors of future work status; however, there is a limited understanding of why people expect what they do. The current study was undertaken with the aim of determining what people take into consideration when forming their expectations for returning to work.Thirty-four people (8 women, 26 men, who were off work due to a musculoskeletal condition, participated in one of 14 focus groups. Participants were aged 25 to 65 (M = 45, SD = 12.6, and all had been out of work for 3 months or less.All participants reported expecting to return to work, with the most common timeframe being approximately 30 days (Range = 1 day-12 months. When explaining what they thought about when forming their expectations, participants referenced numerous considerations. Much of what was spoken about could be compartmentalized to reflect features of themselves, their condition, or their broader environmental contexts. Participant's subjective experience of these features influenced his or her expectations. Prominent themes included concerns about employability, a desire to get back to normal, no job to go back to, mixed emotions, re-injury concerns, the judgments of workplace stakeholders, being needed by their employer, waiting for input, until the money runs out, and working out what was in their best interest.Indications are that many of the reported considerations are amenable to intervention, suggesting opportunities to assist workers in the process of returning to work.

  1. ANALISIS PENGARUH LDR, NPL DAN OPERATIONAL EFFICIENCY RATIO TERHADAP RETURN ON ASSETS PADA BANK DEVISA DI INDONESIA PERIODE 2010-2012

    OpenAIRE

    Hamidah Hamidah; Goldan Merion Siallagan; Umi Mardiyati

    2014-01-01

    This research is performed on order to test analysis the influence of the Loan to Deposit Ratio (LDR), Non Performing Loan (NPL) and Operational Efficiency Ratio (OER) toward Return On Asset (ROA) On Foreign Exchange Banks In Indonesia Period 2010-2012. Methodology research as the sample used purposive sampling, samplewas accured fromforeign banks in Indonesia. Data analysis with multi liniearregression of ordinary least square and hypotheses test used t-statistic and Fstatistic, a classic as...

  2. The impact of a context switch and context instructions on the return of verbally conditioned fear

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mertens, Gaëtan; De Houwer, Jan

    BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Repeated exposure to a conditioned stimulus can lead to a reduction of conditioned fear responses towards this stimulus (i.e., extinction). However, this reduction is often fragile and sensitive to contextual changes. In the current study, we investigated whether

  3. Asymmetries in conditional mean variance: modelling stock returns by asMA-asQGARCH

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Gooijer, J.G.; Brännäs, K.

    2004-01-01

    We propose a nonlinear time series model where both the conditional mean and the conditional variance are asymmetric functions of past information. The model is particularly useful for analysing financial time series where it has been noted that there is an asymmetric impact of good news and bad

  4. [Return to Work from Vocational RetrainingA Long-Term Analysis of Individual Trajectories: Biografical and Structural Conditions of Success and Failure].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meschnig, Alexander; von Kardorff, Ernst; Klaus, Sebastian

    2018-03-28

    The study aimed at the reconstruction of the trajectories of participants of a two-year vocational-retraining into new workplaces thereby identifying favourable and risky conditions of the return-to-work process. From a practical point of view the study identified special needs and necessities for after-care facilities. A Mixed-Method-Design was used. Quantitatively the follow-up-study included 214 persons who participated for three times on filling out a questionnaire over a period of eighteen months after the end of the vocational retraining. In the qualitative part of the study thirty persons consented to participate in a narrative-episodic interview on their vocational biography, their illness experiences at work and their way back into work. The study focused on the experiences of the participants from within, on their decision-making, coping, and rearrangement processes as well as on the experienced support from family members and rehabilitation professionals. About 75% of the participants of the vocational retraining succeeded in getting a job within the range of 18 months after finishing the retraining. Indicators for successful Return to Work are a high identification with the new vocation, effective coping with the remaining health problems, and an accepted arrangement with the disabilities in the work place and in everyday-life, a positive anticipation of the health condition in the future, and last but not least a satisfying social inclusion. As specific risk constellations for Return to Work emerged a lack of partnership, unfinished mental coping with the illness, negative subjective health prognosis, and a more passive attitude to life. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

  5. Asymmetries in conditional mean and variance: Modelling stock returns by asMA-asQGARCH

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brännäs, K.; de Gooijer, J.G.

    2000-01-01

    The asymmetric moving average model (asMA) is extended to allow for asymmetric quadratic conditional heteroskedasticity (asQGARCH). The asymmetric parametrization of the condi- tional variance encompasses the quadratic GARCH model of Sentana (1995). We introduce a framework for testing asymmetries

  6. Return to normal streamflows and water levels: summary of hydrologic conditions in Georgia, 2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knaak, Andrew E.; Caslow, Kerry; Peck, Michael F.

    2015-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) South Atlantic Water Science Center (SAWSC) Georgia office, in cooperation with local, State, and other Federal agencies, maintains a long-term hydrologic monitoring network of more than 340 real-time continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations (streamgages), including 10 real-time lake-level monitoring stations, 67 real-time surface-water-quality monitors, and several water-quality sampling programs. Additionally, the SAWSC Georgia office operates more than 180 groundwater monitoring wells, 39 of which are real-time. The wide-ranging coverage of streamflow, reservoir, and groundwater monitoring sites allows for a comprehensive view of hydrologic conditions across the State. One of the many benefits of this monitoring network is that the analyses of the data provide a spatially distributed overview of the hydrologic conditions of creeks, rivers, reservoirs, and aquifers in Georgia.

  7. Semi-parametric Conditional Quantile Models for Financial Returns and Realized Volatility

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Žikeš, F.; Baruník, Jozef

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 14, č. 1 (2016), s. 185-226 ISSN 1479-8409 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-32263S EU Projects: European Commission 612955 - FINMAP Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : conditional quantiles * quantile regression * realized measures * value-at-risk Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 1.800, year: 2016 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2014/E/barunik-0434200.pdf

  8. 26 CFR 1.6038-2 - Information returns required of United States persons with respect to annual accounting periods...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... accounting period; (9) A list showing the name, address, and identifying number of, and the number of shares... United States dollars with a statement of the exchange rates used. The following rules shall apply for... functional currency as required on the form. Earnings and profits amounts furnished under paragraphs (f)(10...

  9. Expert consensus on facilitators and barriers to return-to-work following surgery for non-traumatic upper extremity conditions: a Delphi study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peters, S E; Johnston, V; Ross, M; Coppieters, M W

    2017-02-01

    This Delphi study aimed to reach consensus on important facilitators and barriers for return-to-work following surgery for non-traumatic upper extremity conditions. In Round 1, experts ( n = 42) listed 134 factors, which were appraised in Rounds 2 and 3. Consensus (⩾85% agreement) was achieved for 13 facilitators (high motivation to return-to-work; high self-efficacy for return-to-work and recovery; availability of modified/alternative duties; flexible return-to-work arrangements; positive coping skills; limited heavy work exertion; supportive return-to-work policies; supportive supervisor/management; no catastrophic thinking; no fear avoidance to return-to-work; no fear avoidance to pain/activity; return to meaningful work duties; high job satisfaction) and six barriers (mood disorder diagnosis; pain/symptoms at more than one musculoskeletal site; heavy upper extremity exertions at work; lack of flexible return-to-work arrangements; lack of support from supervisor/management; high level of pain catastrophizing). Future prognostic studies are required to validate these biopsychosocial factors to further improve return-to-work outcomes. V.

  10. Corrective shoeing in horses: analysis of the adaptation period to the new condition imposed

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raquel M. Albernaz

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Corrective shoeing is a method commonly used to alter the locomotion pattern in animals or as therapy for various disorders of the locomotive system of horses. However, to date, there have been no scientific studies discussing the period during which animals adapt to this type of intervention. The goal of this study was to evaluate the horseshoe adaptation period with the toe or heel elevated by six degrees at 0, 48, and 96 hours after each type of shoeing. For this analysis, the horses were recorded while walking on a treadmill. Stride length and gait qualitative analyzes were performed using Dvideow software. The level of significance adopted was 5%. In the present study, there was no significant difference between the evaluation times; elevating the toe or heel by six degrees do not generates discomfort during locomotion, therefore, horses are able to return to a regular exercise or training routine immediately after shoeing.

  11. Calculation of Wind Speeds for Return Period Using Weibull Parameter: A Case Study of Hanbit NPP Area

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Jongk Uk; Lee, Kwan Hee; Kim, Sung Il; Yook, Dae Sik; Ahn, Sang Myeon [KINS, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    Evaluation of the meteorological characteristics at the nuclear power plant and in the surrounding area should be performed in determining the site suitability for safe operation of the nuclear power plant. Under unexpected emergency condition, knowledge of meteorological information on the site area is important to provide the basis for estimating environmental impacts resulting from radioactive materials released in gaseous effluents during the accident condition. In the meteorological information, wind speed and direction are the important meteorological factors for examination of the safety analysis in the nuclear power plant area. Wind characteristics was analyzed on Hanbit NPP area. It was found that the Weibull parameters k and c vary 2.56 to 4.77 and 4.53 to 6.79 for directional wind speed distribution, respectively. Maximum wind frequency was NE and minimum was NNW.

  12. Health conditions detected in a comprehensive periodic health evaluation of 558 professional football players

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bakken, Arnhild; Targett, Stephen; Bere, Tone; Adamuz, Maria-Carmen; Tol, Johannes L.; Whiteley, Rod; Wilson, Mathew G.; Witvrouw, Erik; Khan, Karim M.; Bahr, Roald

    2016-01-01

    Despite the widespread use of periodic health evaluation (PHE) to detect and prevent injury and illness in athletes, its effectiveness in detecting health conditions and relevant risk factors is still debated. To assess health conditions detected by a comprehensive PHE in professional male football

  13. Eigenstates of a particle in an array of hexagons with periodic boundary condition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A Nemati

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available In this paper the problem of a particle in an array of hexagons with periodic boundary condition is solved. Using the projection operators, we categorize eigenfunctions corresponding to each of the irreducible representations of the symmetry group . Based on these results, the Dirichlet and Neumann boundary conditions are discussed.

  14. Investigations on Health Conditions of Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant Accident Recovery Workers from Latvia in Late Period after Disaster

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Reste Jeļena

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The paper summarises the main findings on Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant (CNPP accident recovery workers from Latvia and their health disturbances, which have been studied by the authors during the last two decades. Approximately 6000 persons from Latvia participated in CNPP clean-up works in 1986–1991. During their work period in Chernobyl they were exposed to external as well as to internal irradiation, but since their return to Latvia they were living in a relatively uncontaminated area. Regular careful medical examinations and clinical studies of CNPP clean-up workers have been conducted during the 25 years after disaster, gathering knowledge on radiation late effects. The aim of the present review is to summarise the most important information about Latvian CNPP clean-up worker health revealed by thorough follow-up and research conducted in the period of 25 years after the accident. This paper reviews data of the Latvian State Register of Persons Exposed to Radiation due to CNPP Accident and gives insight in main health effects found by the researchers from the Centre of Occupational and Radiological Medicine (Pauls Stradiņš Clinical University Hospital and Rīga Stradiņš University in a number of epidemiological, clinical, biochemical, immunological, and physiological studies. Latvian research data on health condition of CNPP clean-up workers in the late period after disaster indicate that ionising radiation might cause premature ageing and severe polymorbidity in humans.

  15. High-resolution refinement of a storm loss model and estimation of return periods of loss-intensive storms over Germany

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. G. Donat

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available A refined model for the calculation of storm losses is presented, making use of high-resolution insurance loss records for Germany and allowing loss estimates on a spatial level of administrative districts and for single storm events. Storm losses are calculated on the basis of wind speeds from both ERA-Interim and NCEP reanalyses. The loss model reproduces the spatial distribution of observed losses well by taking specific regional loss characteristics into account. This also permits high-accuracy estimates of total cumulated losses, though slightly underestimating the country-wide loss sums for storm "Kyrill", the most severe event in the insurance loss records from 1997 to 2007. A larger deviation, which is assigned to the relatively coarse resolution of the NCEP reanalysis, is only found for one specific rather small-scale event, not adequately captured by this dataset.

    The loss model is subsequently applied to the complete reanalysis period to extend the storm event catalogue to cover years when no systematic insurance records are available. This allows the consideration of loss-intensive storm events back to 1948, enlarging the event catalogue to cover the recent 60+ years, and to investigate the statistical characteristics of severe storm loss events in Germany based on a larger sample than provided by the insurance records only. Extreme value analysis is applied to the loss data to estimate the return periods of loss-intensive storms, yielding a return period for storm "Kyrill", for example, of approximately 15 to 21 years.

  16. The Olympic Games as reflection conditions of development Ancient Greek civilization in Hellenism period

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kasianenko Ol'ga Gennadievna

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available The author has realized the historical analysis of the Olympic Games at consideration the conditions of Ancient Greek civilization development in Hellenism period. Had presented the division into the periodization of Greek civilization development in which had learned a major changes in the world-view of Hellenes under the A. Macedonian influence, notably: professionalization of sport and gradual fading of ideals, making basis of olympism, and also Christianity following late which results in the decline of the Olympic Games.

  17. Particles in a magnetic field and plasma analogies: doubly periodic boundary conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Forrester, P J

    2006-01-01

    The N-particle free fermion state for quantum particles in the plane subject to a perpendicular magnetic field, and with doubly periodic boundary conditions, is written in a product form. The absolute value of this is used to formulate an exactly solvable one-component plasma model and further motivates the formulation of an exactly solvable two-species Coulomb gas. The large N expansion of the free energy of both these models exhibits the same O(1) term. On the basis of a relationship to the Gaussian free field, this term is predicted to be universal for conductive Coulomb systems in doubly periodic boundary conditions

  18. Culinary Contests in Periodicals as Reflection of Russians’ Everyday Life in Conditions of Modern Economic Reforms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ольга Дмитриевна Попова

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to the analysis of publications of culinary recipes contests in various periodicals. They demonstrate the specificity of Russians’ everyday life in conditions of economic reforms in the country. The published recipes reflect the dynamics of the socio-economic life of the population. These publications demonstrate various ways of doing housekeeping in conditions of the changing economic situation, which influenced the peculiarities of cooking food.

  19. The effect of box shape on the dynamic properties of proteins simulated under periodic boundary conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wassenaar, T.A.; Mark, A.E.

    The effect of the box shape on the dynamic behavior of proteins simulated under periodic boundary conditions is evaluated. In particular, the influence of simulation boxes defined by the near-densest lattice packing (NDLP) in conjunction with rotational constraints is compared to that of standard

  20. Pengaruh Downside Beta, Upside Beta, Dan Beta Terhadap Expected Return (Studi Pada Saham Yang Termasuk Dalam 50 Leading Market Capitalization Di Bursa Efek Indonesia Periode 2012-2015)

    OpenAIRE

    Sinaga, Maria Goretty; Sulasmiyati, Sri

    2017-01-01

    Return or return on an investment is required by the investor. Most investors currently prefer shares in emerging markets. Return in the emerging market is not always symmetrical, it shows return in the emerging market is not normally distributed. The purposive of this research want to learn, compare, and explain about some model of stock risk. On this research downside risk expressed with beta downside. The models used in this research among others, dowside beta, upside beta, and beta. The k...

  1. Detecting The Expected Rate of Return Volatility of Financing Instruments of Indonesian Islamic Banking through GARCH Modeling (Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nurul Huda

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Objective - Islamic banks are banks which its activities, both fund raising and funds distribution are on the basis of Islamic principles, namely buying and selling and profit sharing. Islamic banking is aimed at supporting the implementation of national development in order to improve justice, togetherness, and equitable distribution of welfare. In pursuit of supporting the implementation of national development, Islamic banking often faced stability problems of financing instruments being operated. In this case, it is measured by the gap between the actual rate of return and the expected rate of return. The individual actual RoR of this instrument will generate an expected rate of return. This raises the gap or difference between the actual rate of return and the expected rate of return of individual instruments, which in this case is called the abnormal rate of return. The stability of abnormal rate of return of individual instruments is certainly influenced by the stability of the expected rate of return. Expected rate of return has a volatility or fluctuation levels for each financing instrument. It is also a key element or material basis for the establishment of a variance of individual instruments. Variance in this case indicates the level of uncertainty of the rate of return. Individual variance is the origin of the instrument base for variance in the portfolio finance that further a portfolio analysis. So, this paper is going to analyze the level of expected RoR volatility as an initial step to see and predict the stability of the fluctuations in the rate of return of Indonesian Islamic financing instruments.Methods – Probability of Occurence, Expected Rate of Return (RoR and GARCH (Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity.Results - The expected RoR volatility of the murabaha and istishna financing instruments tend to be more volatile than expected RoR volatility of musharaka and qardh financing instruments

  2. Effects of periodic boundary conditions on equilibrium properties of computer simulated fluids. I. Theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pratt, L.R.; Haan, S.W.

    1981-01-01

    An exact formal theory for the effects of periodic boundary conditions on the equilibrium properties of computer simulated classical many-body systems is developed. This is done by observing that use of the usual periodic conditions is equivalent to the study of a certain supermolecular liquid, in which a supermolecule is a polyatomic molecule of infinite extent composed of one of the physical particles in the system plus all its periodic images. For this supermolecular system in the grand ensemble, all the cluster expansion techniques used in the study of real molecular liquids are directly applicable. As expected, particle correlations are translationally uniform, but explicitly anisotropic. When the intermolecular potential energy functions are of short enough range, or cut off, so that the minimum image method is used, evaluation of the cluster integrals is dramatically simplified. In this circumstance, a large and important class of cluster expansion contributions can be summed exactly, and expressed in terms of the correlation functions which result when the system size is allowed to increase without bound. This result yields a simple and useful approximation to the corrections to the particle correlations due to the use of periodic boundary conditions with finite systems. Numerical application of these results are reported in the following paper

  3. Groundwater flow modelling of periods with periglacial and glacial climate conditions - Laxemar

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vidstrand, Patrik (TerraSolve AB, Floda (Sweden)); Rhen, Ingvar (SWECO Environment AB, Falun (Sweden)); Zugec, Nada (Bergab, Goeteborg (Sweden))

    2010-12-15

    As a part of the license application for a final repository for spent nuclear fuel at Forsmark, the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) has undertaken a series of groundwater flow modelling studies. These represent time periods with different hydraulic conditions and the simulations carried out contribute to the overall evaluation of the repository design and long-term radiological safety. This report is concerned with the modelling of a repository at the Laxemar-Simpevarp site during periglacial and glacial climate conditions as a comparison to corresponding modelling carried out for Forsmark /Vidstrand et al. 2010/. The groundwater flow modelling study reported here comprises a coupled thermal-hydraulic-chemical (T-H-C) analysis of periods with periglacial and glacial climate conditions. The objective of the report is to provide bounding hydrogeological estimates at different stages during glaciation and deglaciation of a glacial cycle at Laxemar. Three cases with different climate conditions are analysed here: (i) Temperate case, (ii) Glacial case without permafrost, and (iii) Glacial case with permafrost. The glacial periods are transient and encompass approximately 13,000 years. The simulation results comprise pressures, Darcy fluxes, and water salinities, as well as advective transport performance measures obtained by particle tracking such as flow path lengths, travel times and flow-related transport resistances. The modelling is accompanied by a sensitivity study that addresses the impact of the following matters: the direction of the ice sheet advance and the bedrock hydraulic and transport properties

  4. Periodic traveling compression regions during quiet geomagnetic conditions and their association with ground Pi2

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Keiling

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available Recently, Keiling et al. (2006 showed that periodic (~90 s traveling compression regions (TCRs during a substorm had properties of Pi2 pulsations, prompting them to call this type of periodic TCRs "lobe Pi2". It was further shown that time-delayed ground Pi2 had the same period as the lobe Pi2 located at 16 RE, and it was concluded that both were remotely driven by periodic, pulsed reconnection in the magnetotail. In the study reported here, we give further evidence for this association by reporting additional periodic TCR events (lobe Pi2s at 18 RE all of which occurred in succession during a geomagnetically very quiet, non-substorm period. Each quiet-time periodic TCR event occurred during an interval of small H-bay-like ground disturbance (<40 nT. Such disturbances have previously been identified as poleward boundary intensifications (PBIs. The small H bays were superposed by Pi2s. These ground Pi2s are compared to the TCRs in the tail lobe (Cluster and both magnetic pulsations and flow variations at 9 RE inside the plasma sheet (Geotail. The main results of this study are: (1 Further evidence is given that periodic TCRs in the tail lobe at distances of 18 RE and ground Pi2 are related phenomena. In particular, it is shown that both had the same periodicity and occurred simultaneously (allowing for propagation time delays strongly suggesting that both had the same periodic source. Since the TCRs were propagating Earthward, this source was located in the outer magnetosphere beyond 18 RE. (2 The connection of periodic TCRs and ground Pi2 also exists during very quiet geomagnetic conditions with PBIs present in addition to the previous result (Keiling et al., 2006 which showed this connection during substorms. (3 Combining (1 and (2, we conclude that the frequency of PBI-associated Pi2 is controlled in the outer magnetosphere as opposed to the

  5. Critical period of memory enhancement during taste avoidance conditioning in Lymnaea stagnalis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takahashi, Tomoyo; Takigami, Satoshi; Sunada, Hiroshi; Lukowiak, Ken; Sakakibara, Manabu

    2013-01-01

    The present study investigated the optimal training procedure leading to long-lasting taste avoidance behavior in Lymnaea. A training procedure comprising 5 repeated pairings of a conditional stimulus (CS, sucrose), with an unconditional stimulus (US, a tactile stimulation to the animal's head), over a 4-day period resulted in an enhanced memory formation than 10 CS-US repeated pairings over a 2-day period or 20 CS-US repeated pairings on a single day. Backward conditioning (US-CS) pairings did not result in conditioning. Thus, this taste avoidance conditioning was CS-US pairing specific. Food avoidance behavior was not observed following training, however, if snails were immediately subjected to a cold-block (4°C for 10 min). It was critical that the cold-block be applied within 10 min to block long-term memory (LTM) formation. Further, exposure to the cold-block 180 min after training also blocked both STM and LTM formation. The effects of the cold-block on subsequent learning and memory formation were also examined. We found no long lasting effects of the cold-block on subsequent memory formation. If protein kinase C was activated before the conditioning paradigm, snails could still acquire STM despite exposure to the cold-block.

  6. Critical period of memory enhancement during taste avoidance conditioning in Lymnaea stagnalis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomoyo Takahashi

    Full Text Available The present study investigated the optimal training procedure leading to long-lasting taste avoidance behavior in Lymnaea. A training procedure comprising 5 repeated pairings of a conditional stimulus (CS, sucrose, with an unconditional stimulus (US, a tactile stimulation to the animal's head, over a 4-day period resulted in an enhanced memory formation than 10 CS-US repeated pairings over a 2-day period or 20 CS-US repeated pairings on a single day. Backward conditioning (US-CS pairings did not result in conditioning. Thus, this taste avoidance conditioning was CS-US pairing specific. Food avoidance behavior was not observed following training, however, if snails were immediately subjected to a cold-block (4°C for 10 min. It was critical that the cold-block be applied within 10 min to block long-term memory (LTM formation. Further, exposure to the cold-block 180 min after training also blocked both STM and LTM formation. The effects of the cold-block on subsequent learning and memory formation were also examined. We found no long lasting effects of the cold-block on subsequent memory formation. If protein kinase C was activated before the conditioning paradigm, snails could still acquire STM despite exposure to the cold-block.

  7. Influence of edge conditions on material ejection from periodic grooves in laser shock-loaded tin

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rességuier, T. de; Roland, C. [Institut PPRIME, UPR 3346, CNRS, ENSMA, Université de Poitiers, 1 ave. Clément Ader, 86961 Futuroscope Cedex (France); Prudhomme, G.; Lescoute, E.; Mercier, P. [CEA, DAM, DIF, 91297 Arpajon (France); Loison, D. [Institut de Physique de Rennes, CNRS, Université de Rennes 1, 35042 Rennes (France)

    2016-05-14

    In a material subjected to high dynamic compression, the breakout of a shock wave at a rough free surface can lead to the ejection of high velocity debris. Anticipating the ballistic properties of such debris is a key safety issue in many applications involving shock loading, including pyrotechnics and inertial confinement fusion experiments. In this paper, we use laser driven shocks to investigate particle ejection from calibrated grooves of micrometric dimensions and approximately sinusoidal profile in tin samples, with various boundary conditions at the groove edges, including single groove and periodic patterns. Fast transverse shadowgraphy provides ejection velocities after shock breakout. They are found to depend not only on the groove depth and wavelength, as predicted theoretically and already observed in the past, but also, unexpectedly, on the edge conditions, with a jet tip velocity significantly lower in the case of a single groove than behind a periodic pattern.

  8. On the transfer matrix of the supersymmetric eight-vertex model. I. Periodic boundary conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagendorf, Christian; Liénardy, Jean

    2018-03-01

    The square-lattice eight-vertex model with vertex weights a, b, c, d obeying the relation (a^2+ab)(b^2+ab) = (c^2+ab)(d^2+ab) and periodic boundary conditions is considered. It is shown that the transfer matrix of the model for L  =  2n  +  1 vertical lines and periodic boundary conditions along the horizontal direction possesses the doubly degenerate eigenvalue \\Thetan = (a+b){\\hspace{0pt}}2n+1 . This proves a conjecture by Stroganov from 2001. The proof uses the supersymmetry of a related XYZ spin-chain Hamiltonian. The eigenstates of the transfer matrix corresponding to \\Thetan are shown to be the ground states of the spin-chain Hamiltonian. Moreover, for positive vertex weights \\Thetan is the largest eigenvalue of the transfer matrix.

  9. “Dis-able bodied” or “dis-able minded”: stakeholders’ return-to-work experiences compared between physical and mental health conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vossen, E.E.M.; Gestel, N.M. van; Heijden, B.I.J.M. van der; Rouwette, E.A.J.A.

    2017-01-01

    PURPOSE: This study aimed to explore if and why the return-to-work (RTW) experiences of various workplace stakeholders in the Netherlands and Denmark differ between physical and mental health conditions, and to understand the consequences of potentially different experiences for the RTW process in

  10. Expert consensus on facilitators and barriers to return-to-work following surgery for non-traumatic upper extremity conditions : A Delphi study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peters, S. E.; Johnston, V.; Ross, M.; Coppieters, M. W.

    2017-01-01

    This Delphi study aimed to reach consensus on important facilitators and barriers for return-to-work following surgery for non-traumatic upper extremity conditions. In Round 1, experts (n = 42) listed 134 factors, which were appraised in Rounds 2 and 3. Consensus (3/485% agreement) was achieved for

  11. Vibrational spectra of four-coordinated random networks with periodic boundary conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guttman, L.

    1976-01-01

    Examples of perfectly four-coordinated networks satisfying periodic boundary conditions are constructed by a pseudo-random process, starting from a crystalline region. The unphysical features (high density, large deviations from the tetrahedral bond-angle) are removed by systematic modification of the bonding scheme. The vibrational spectra are calculated, using a valence-force potential, and the neutron scattering is computed by a phonon-expansion approximation

  12. Nonlinear analysis of field distribution in electric motor with periodicity conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stabrowski, M M; Sikora, J

    1981-01-01

    Numerical analysis of electromagnetic field distribution in linear motion tubular electric motor has been performed with the aid of finite element method. Two Fortran programmes for the solution of DBBF and BF large linear symmetric equation systems have been developed for purposes of this analysis. A new iterative algorithm, taking into account iron nonlinearity and periodicity conditions, has been introduced. Final results of the analysis in the form of induction diagrammes and motor driving force are directly useful for motor designers.

  13. Return to sexual activity and modern family planning use in the extended postpartum period: an analysis of findings from seventeen countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borda, Maria R; Winfrey, William; McKaig, Catharine

    2010-12-01

    Unintended pregnancies can lead to poor maternal and child health outcomes. Family planning use during the first year postpartum has the potential to significantly reduce at least some of these unintended pregnancies. This paper examines the relationship of menses return, breastfeeding status, and postpartum duration on return to sexual activity and use of modern family planning among postpartum women. This paper presents results from a secondary data analysis of Demographic and Health Surveys from 17 countries. For postpartum women, the return of menses, breastfeeding status, and postpartum duration are significantly associated with return to sexual activity in at least 10 out of the 17 countries but not consistently associated with family planning use. Only menses return had a significant association with use of modern family planning in the majority of countries. These findings point to the importance of education about pregnancy risk prior to menses return.

  14. Groundwater flow modelling of periods with periglacial and glacial climate conditions - Forsmark

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vidstrand, Patrik (TerraSolve AB, Floda (Sweden)); Follin, Sven (SF GeoLogic AB, Taeby (Sweden)); Zugec, Nada (Bergab, Stockholm (Sweden))

    2010-12-15

    As a part of the license application for a final repository for spent nuclear fuel at Forsmark, the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) has undertaken a series of groundwater flow modelling studies. These represent time periods with different hydraulic conditions and the simulations carried out contribute to the overall evaluation of the repository design and long-term radiological safety. The groundwater flow modelling study reported here comprises a coupled thermal-hydraulic-chemical (T-H-C) analysis of periods with periglacial and glacial climate conditions. Hydraulic-mechanical (H-M) issues are also handled but no coupled flow modelling is done. The objective of the report is to provide bounding hydrogeological estimates at different stages during glaciation and deglaciation of a glacial cycle for subsequent use in safety assessment applications within SKB's project SR-Site. Three cases with different climate conditions are analysed here: (i) Temperate case, (ii) Glacial case without permafrost, and (iii) Glacial case with permafrost. The glacial periods are transient and encompass approximately 19,000 years. The simulation results comprise residual fluid pressures, Darcy fluxes, and water salinities, as well as advective transport performance measures obtained by particle tracking such as flow path lengths, travel times and flow-related transport resistances. The modelling is accompanied by a sensitivity study that addresses the impact of the following matters: the direction of the ice sheet advance, the speed of the ice sheet margin, the bedrock hydraulic and transport properties, the temperature at the ice-subsurface interface close to the ice sheet margin, and the initial hydrochemical conditions.

  15. Groundwater flow modelling of periods with periglacial and glacial climate conditions - Forsmark

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vidstrand, Patrik; Follin, Sven; Zugec, Nada

    2010-12-01

    As a part of the license application for a final repository for spent nuclear fuel at Forsmark, the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) has undertaken a series of groundwater flow modelling studies. These represent time periods with different hydraulic conditions and the simulations carried out contribute to the overall evaluation of the repository design and long-term radiological safety. The groundwater flow modelling study reported here comprises a coupled thermal-hydraulic-chemical (T-H-C) analysis of periods with periglacial and glacial climate conditions. Hydraulic-mechanical (H-M) issues are also handled but no coupled flow modelling is done. The objective of the report is to provide bounding hydrogeological estimates at different stages during glaciation and deglaciation of a glacial cycle for subsequent use in safety assessment applications within SKB's project SR-Site. Three cases with different climate conditions are analysed here: (i) Temperate case, (ii) Glacial case without permafrost, and (iii) Glacial case with permafrost. The glacial periods are transient and encompass approximately 19,000 years. The simulation results comprise residual fluid pressures, Darcy fluxes, and water salinities, as well as advective transport performance measures obtained by particle tracking such as flow path lengths, travel times and flow-related transport resistances. The modelling is accompanied by a sensitivity study that addresses the impact of the following matters: the direction of the ice sheet advance, the speed of the ice sheet margin, the bedrock hydraulic and transport properties, the temperature at the ice-subsurface interface close to the ice sheet margin, and the initial hydrochemical conditions

  16. 26 CFR 1.6694-4 - Extension of period of collection when tax return preparer pays 15 percent of a penalty for...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... TREASURY (CONTINUED) INCOME TAX (CONTINUED) INCOME TAXES Additions to the Tax, Additional Amounts, and... assessment, the IRS will also send, before assessment of either penalty, a 30-day letter to the tax return preparer notifying him of the proposed penalty or penalties and offering an opportunity to the tax return...

  17. Advanced quadratures and periodic boundary conditions in parallel 3D Sn transport

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Manalo, K.; Yi, C.; Huang, M.; Sjoden, G.

    2013-01-01

    Significant updates in numerical quadratures have warranted investigation with 3D Sn discrete ordinates transport. We show new applications of quadrature departing from level symmetric ( 2 o) and Pn-Tn (>S 2 o). investigating 3 recently developed quadratures: Even-Odd (EO), Linear-Discontinuous Finite Element - Surface Area (LDFE-SA), and the non-symmetric Icosahedral Quadrature (IC). We discuss implementation changes to 3D Sn codes (applied to Hybrid MOC-Sn TITAN and 3D parallel PENTRAN) that can be performed to accommodate Icosahedral Quadrature, as this quadrature is not 90-degree rotation invariant. In particular, as demonstrated using PENTRAN, the properties of Icosahedral Quadrature are suitable for trivial application using periodic BCs versus that of reflective BCs. In addition to implementing periodic BCs for 3D Sn PENTRAN, we implemented a technique termed 'angular re-sweep' which properly conditions periodic BCs for outer eigenvalue iterative loop convergence. As demonstrated by two simple transport problems (3-group fixed source and 3-group reflected/periodic eigenvalue pin cell), we remark that all of the quadratures we investigated are generally superior to level symmetric quadrature, with Icosahedral Quadrature performing the most efficiently for problems tested. (authors)

  18. Applying principles of self-management to facilitate workers to return to or remain at work with a chronic musculoskeletal condition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnston, Venerina; Jull, Gwendolen; Sheppard, Dianne M; Ellis, Niki

    2013-08-01

    It is incumbent on health care professionals to support patients with chronic musculoskeletal conditions to manage the impact of the condition on their life. Work is a positive health behaviour for which self-management skills are essential. In this paper, self-management is defined and the role of clinicians in promoting self-management for return to work is outlined with examples and tips on how the clinician can incorporate self-management into practice. The clinician is ideally placed to assist individuals with chronic musculoskeletal conditions manage to remain at work or return to work. This can be achieved through such activities as the promotion of the core self-management skills of problem-solving, decision making, resource utilisation, developing a cooperative partnership between clinician and patient and making an action plan. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. PENGARUH EARNINGS, OPERATING CASH FLOW DAN ASSET GROWTH TERHADAP STOCK RETURN PERUSAHAAN YANG TERDAFTAR PADA INDEKS LQ 45 UNTUK PERIODE 2009-2011

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yulius ,

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this research is to test the impact of earnings, operating cash flow and asset growth to firm’s stock return which listed in LQ 45 index in Indonesian for 2009-2011. The result of this research is earnings, operating cash flow and asset growth have not significant effect to stock return both when those variabels is tested separately or silmutaneously. This result show that earnings, operating cash flow and asset growth are not only the one to be the basis of consideration for investor to make investment to get the stock return. Therefore, for making investment, investor should consider other factors which effect the firm’s stock return as macro economics and politics. Furthermore, from this result, be expected an improvement of quality financial statement which addopted IFRS. Keyword: Earnings, Operating Cash Flow, Asset Growth, Stock Return.

  20. Strong influence of periodic boundary conditions on lateral diffusion in lipid bilayer membranes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Camley, Brian A. [Center for Theoretical Biological Physics and Department of Physics, University of California, San Diego, California 92093 (United States); Department of Physics, University of California, Santa Barbara, California 93106 (United States); Lerner, Michael G. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Earlham College, Richmond, Indiana 47374 (United States); Laboratory of Computational Biology, National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland 20892 (United States); Pastor, Richard W. [Laboratory of Computational Biology, National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland 20892 (United States); Brown, Frank L. H. [Department of Physics, University of California, Santa Barbara, California 93106 (United States); Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry, University of California, Santa Barbara, California 93106 (United States)

    2015-12-28

    The Saffman-Delbrück hydrodynamic model for lipid-bilayer membranes is modified to account for the periodic boundary conditions commonly imposed in molecular simulations. Predicted lateral diffusion coefficients for membrane-embedded solid bodies are sensitive to box shape and converge slowly to the limit of infinite box size, raising serious doubts for the prospects of using detailed simulations to accurately predict membrane-protein diffusivities and related transport properties. Estimates for the relative error associated with periodic boundary artifacts are 50% and higher for fully atomistic models in currently feasible simulation boxes. MARTINI simulations of LacY membrane protein diffusion and LacY dimer diffusion in DPPC membranes and lipid diffusion in pure DPPC bilayers support the underlying hydrodynamic model.

  1. Strong influence of periodic boundary conditions on lateral diffusion in lipid bilayer membranes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Camley, Brian A.; Lerner, Michael G.; Pastor, Richard W.; Brown, Frank L. H.

    2015-01-01

    The Saffman-Delbrück hydrodynamic model for lipid-bilayer membranes is modified to account for the periodic boundary conditions commonly imposed in molecular simulations. Predicted lateral diffusion coefficients for membrane-embedded solid bodies are sensitive to box shape and converge slowly to the limit of infinite box size, raising serious doubts for the prospects of using detailed simulations to accurately predict membrane-protein diffusivities and related transport properties. Estimates for the relative error associated with periodic boundary artifacts are 50% and higher for fully atomistic models in currently feasible simulation boxes. MARTINI simulations of LacY membrane protein diffusion and LacY dimer diffusion in DPPC membranes and lipid diffusion in pure DPPC bilayers support the underlying hydrodynamic model

  2. Existence theory for sequential fractional differential equations with anti-periodic type boundary conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aqlan Mohammed H.

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available We develop the existence theory for sequential fractional differential equations involving Liouville-Caputo fractional derivative equipped with anti-periodic type (non-separated and nonlocal integral boundary conditions. Several existence criteria depending on the nonlinearity involved in the problems are presented by means of a variety of tools of the fixed point theory. The applicability of the results is shown with the aid of examples. Our results are not only new in the given configuration but also yield some new special cases for specific choices of parameters involved in the problems.

  3. Shocks induced by junctions in totally asymmetric simple exclusion processes under periodic boundary condition

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sun, Xiaoyan, E-mail: sunxiaoyan1@gmail.com [College of Physics and Electronic Engineering, Guangxi Teacher Education University, Nanning 530001 (China); Xie, Yanbo [Department of Modern Physics, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026 (China); He, Zhiwei [College of Science, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083 (China); Wang, Binghong [Department of Modern Physics, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026 (China)

    2011-07-11

    This Letter investigates a totally asymmetric simple exclusion process (TASEP) with junctions in a one-dimensional transport system. Parallel update rules and periodic boundary condition are adopted. Two cases corresponding to different update rules are studied. The results show that the stationary states of system mainly depend on the selection behavior of particle at the bifurcation point. -- Highlights: → For no preference case, the system exists three stationary phases. → For preference case, the system exists five stationary phases. → The road lengths have not qualitative influence on the fundamental diagram.

  4. Approximate controllability of a semilinear elliptic problem with Robin condition in a periodically perforated domain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nikita Agarwal

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available In this article, we study the approximate controllability and homegenization results of a semi-linear elliptic problem with Robin boundary condition in a periodically perforated domain. We prove the existence of minimal norm control using Lions constructive approach, which is based on Fenchel-Rockafeller duality theory, and by means of Zuazua's fixed point arguments. Then, as the homogenization parameter goes to zero, we link the limit of the optimal controls (the limit of fixed point of the controllability problems with the optimal control of the corresponding homogenized problem.

  5. OpenCL-Based FPGA Accelerator for 3D FDTD with Periodic and Absorbing Boundary Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hasitha Muthumala Waidyasooriya

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Finite difference time domain (FDTD method is a very poplar way of numerically solving partial differential equations. FDTD has a low operational intensity so that the performances in CPUs and GPUs are often restricted by the memory bandwidth. Recently, deeply pipelined FPGA accelerators have shown a lot of success by exploiting streaming data flows in FDTD computation. In spite of this success, many FPGA accelerators are not suitable for real-world applications that contain complex boundary conditions. Boundary conditions break the regularity of the data flow, so that the performances are significantly reduced. This paper proposes an FPGA accelerator that computes commonly used absorbing and periodic boundary conditions in many 3D FDTD applications. Accelerator is designed using a “C-like” programming language called OpenCL (open computing language. As a result, the proposed accelerator can be customized easily by changing the software code. According to the experimental results, we achieved over 3.3 times and 1.5 times higher processing speed compared to the CPUs and GPUs, respectively. Moreover, the proposed accelerator is more than 14 times faster compared to the recently proposed FPGA accelerators that are capable of handling complex boundary conditions.

  6. Psychosocial job conditions, fear avoidance beliefs and expected return to work following acute coronary syndrome: a cross-sectional study of fear-avoidance as a potential mediator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Söderberg, Mia; Rosengren, Annika; Gustavsson, Sara; Schiöler, Linus; Härenstam, Annika; Torén, Kjell

    2015-12-21

    Despite improvements in treatment, acute coronary syndrome remains a substantial cause for prolonged sick absences and premature retirement. Knowledge regarding what benefits return to work is limited, especially the effect of psychological processes and psychosocial work factors. The purposes of this cross-sectional study were two-fold: to examine associations between adverse psychosocial job conditions and fear-avoidance beliefs towards work, and to determine whether such beliefs mediated the relationship between work conditions and expected return to work in acute coronary syndrome survivors. Study inclusion criteria: acute myocardial infarction or unstable angina diagnosis, below 65 years of age, being a resident in the West county of Sweden and currently working. In all, 509 individuals (21.8 % women) accepted study participation and for whom all data of study interest were available for analysis. Psychosocial work variables; job demand-control and effort-reward imbalance, were assessed with standard questionnaire batteries. Linear regression models were used to investigate relationships between psychosocial factors and fear-avoidance, and to evaluate mediator effects for fear-avoidance. Both total sample and gender stratified analyses were calculated. Fear-avoidance beliefs about work were associated to psychosocial job environments characterized by high strain (β 1.4; CI 1.2-1.6), active and passive work and high effort-reward imbalance (β 0.6; CI 0.5-0.7). Further, such beliefs also mediated the relationship between adverse work conditions and expected time for return to work. However, these results were only observed in total sample analyses or among or male participants. For women only high strain was linked to fear-avoidance, and these relationships became non-significant when entering chosen confounders. This cross-sectional study showed that acute coronary syndrome survivors, who laboured under adverse psychosocial work conditions, held fear

  7. Periodic spring–mass running over uneven terrain through feedforward control of landing conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    III, Luther R Palmer; Eaton, Caitrin E

    2014-01-01

    This work pursues a feedforward control algorithm for high-speed legged locomotion over uneven terrain. Being able to rapidly negotiate uneven terrain without visual or a priori information about the terrain will allow legged systems to be used in time-critical applications and alongside fast-moving humans or vehicles. The algorithm is shown here implemented on a spring-loaded inverted pendulum model in simulation, and can be configured to approach fixed running height over uneven terrain or self-stable terrain following. Offline search identifies unique landing conditions that achieve a desired apex height with a constant stride period over varying ground levels. Because the time between the apex and touchdown events is directly related to ground height, the landing conditions can be computed in real time as continuous functions of this falling time. Enforcing a constant stride period reduces the need for inertial sensing of the apex event, which is nontrivial for physical systems, and allows for clocked feedfoward control of the swing leg. (paper)

  8. Periodic spring-mass running over uneven terrain through feedforward control of landing conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palmer, Luther R; Eaton, Caitrin E

    2014-09-01

    This work pursues a feedforward control algorithm for high-speed legged locomotion over uneven terrain. Being able to rapidly negotiate uneven terrain without visual or a priori information about the terrain will allow legged systems to be used in time-critical applications and alongside fast-moving humans or vehicles. The algorithm is shown here implemented on a spring-loaded inverted pendulum model in simulation, and can be configured to approach fixed running height over uneven terrain or self-stable terrain following. Offline search identifies unique landing conditions that achieve a desired apex height with a constant stride period over varying ground levels. Because the time between the apex and touchdown events is directly related to ground height, the landing conditions can be computed in real time as continuous functions of this falling time. Enforcing a constant stride period reduces the need for inertial sensing of the apex event, which is nontrivial for physical systems, and allows for clocked feedfoward control of the swing leg.

  9. Quasilocal conservation laws in XXZ spin-1/2 chains: Open, periodic and twisted boundary conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomaž Prosen

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available A continuous family of quasilocal exact conservation laws is constructed in the anisotropic Heisenberg (XXZ spin-1/2 chain for periodic (or twisted boundary conditions and for a set of commensurate anisotropies densely covering the entire easy plane interaction regime. All local conserved operators follow from the standard (Hermitian transfer operator in fundamental representation (with auxiliary spin s=1/2, and are all even with respect to a spin flip operation. However, the quasilocal family is generated by differentiation of a non-Hermitian highest weight transfer operator with respect to a complex auxiliary spin representation parameter s and includes also operators of odd parity. For a finite chain with open boundaries the time derivatives of quasilocal operators are not strictly vanishing but result in operators localized near the boundaries of the chain. We show that a simple modification of the non-Hermitian transfer operator results in exactly conserved, but still quasilocal operators for periodic or generally twisted boundary conditions. As an application, we demonstrate that implementing the new exactly conserved operator family for estimating the high-temperature spin Drude weight results, in the thermodynamic limit, in exactly the same lower bound as for almost conserved family and open boundaries. Under the assumption that the bound is saturating (suggested by agreement with previous thermodynamic Bethe ansatz calculations we propose a simple explicit construction of infinite time averages of local operators such as the spin current.

  10. Optimal periodic inspection of a deterioration process with sequential condition states

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kallen, M.J.; Noortwijk, J.M. van

    2006-01-01

    The condition of components subject to visual inspections is often evaluated on a discrete scale. If at each inspection a decision is made to do nothing or to perform preventive or corrective maintenance, the proposed decision model allows us to determine the optimal time between periodic inspections, such that the expected average costs per unit of time are minimized. The model which describes the uncertain condition over time is based on a Markov process with sequential phases. The key quantities involved in the model are the probabilities of having to perform either preventive or corrective maintenance before or after an inspection. The costs functions for two scenarios are presented: a scenario in which failure is immediately detected without the need to perform an inspection and a scenario in which failure is only detected by inspection of the object. Analytical results for a special case and algorithmic results for a broad class of Markov processes are derived. The model is illustrated using an application to the periodic inspection of road bridges

  11. Periodic variations of atmospheric electric field on fair weather conditions at YBJ, Tibet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Bin; Zou, Dan; Chen, Ben Yuan; Zhang, Jin Ye; Xu, Guo Wang

    2013-05-01

    Observations of atmospheric electric field on fair weather conditions from the plateau station, YBJ, Tibet (90°31‧50″ E, 30°06‧38″ N), over the period from 2006 to 2011, are presented in this work. Its periodic modulations are analyzed in frequency-domain by Lomb-Scargle Periodogram method and in time-domain by folding method. The results show that the fair weather atmospheric electric field intensity is modulated weakly by annual cycle, solar diurnal cycle and its several harmonic components. The modulating amplitude of annual cycle is bigger than that of solar diurnal cycle. The annual minimum/maximum nearly coincides with spring/autumn equinox. The detailed spectrum analysis show that the secondary peaks (i.e. sidereal diurnal cycle and semi-sidereal diurnal cycle) nearly disappear along with their primary peaks when the primary signals are subtracted from electric field data sequence. The average daily variation curve exhibits dual-fluctuations, and has obviously seasonal dependence. The mean value is bigger in summer and autumn, but smaller in spring and winter. The daytime fluctuation is affected by the sunrise and sunset effect, the occurring time of which have a little shift with seasons. However, the nightly one has a great dependence on season conditions.

  12. Periparturient Period in Terms of Body Condition Score and Selected Parameters of Hormonal Profiles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vargová M.

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The majority of all diseases in dairy cows occur during the period from three weeks before parturition to three weeks after parturition, in the periparturient or transitional period. The objective of this study was to evaluate the dynamics of selected parameters of: the hormonal profiles, the body condition score (BCS and their interrelationships. The study was carried out on 15 dairy cows of the Slovak Pied Cattle, from three weeks before to nine weeks after parturition, which were divided into six groups. The concentrations of leptin during ante partum increased from 23.08 ± 10.58 ng.ml−1 to 26.80 ± 11.47 ng.ml−1, then gradually decreased (P > 0.05, and conversely, the concentrations of ghrelin before parturition were found to be decreasing and during the postpartal period, the concentrations increased, with the highest value of 35.94 ± 16.85 pg.ml−1. In the case of insulin, we found the opposite tendency of ghrelin. We observed significantly higher values of BCS in dry cows than in cows after parturition (P < 0.001. Comparing the BCS and the parameter of the hormonal profiles, we found both positive and negative correlations: leptin and ghrelin (r = −0.235, P < 0.05, and BCS and insulin (r = 0.232, P < 0.05, and BCS and leptin (r = 0.360, P < 0.001. The interrelationships between the hormones and the body condition score, provided evidence that the variations in concentrations of leptin, ghrelin and insulin were related to variations in the BCS.

  13. Relationships between rumination time, metabolic conditions, and health status in dairy cows during the transition period.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soriani, N; Trevisi, E; Calamari, L

    2012-12-01

    The main objective of this experiment was to monitor the rumination pattern during the transition period in primiparous (PR) and pluriparous (PL) dairy cows and to investigate its relationships with metabolic conditions, milk yield, and health status. The study was carried out in an experimental free-stall barn and involved 32 Italian Friesian cows (9 PR and 23 PL) during the transition phase. The rumination time (RT) was recorded with an automatic system (HR-Tag), and data were calculated and summarized in 2-h intervals. Blood samples were collected during the transition phase to assess biochemical variables related to energy, protein, and mineral metabolism, as well as markers of inflammatory conditions and some enzyme activity. Daily milk yield, BW, nutritional condition, and health status were also recorded. The average RT before calving (-20 to -6 d) was 463 min/d in PR (range 270 to 620) and 522 min/d in PL (range 411 to 640). In the early lactation [15 to 40 d in milk (DIM)], the average RT was 504 min/d in PR (range 400 to 585) and 562 min/d in PL (range 414 to 685) and was positively correlated with milk yield (r = 0.36; P Cows with reduced RT before calving maintained reduced RT after calving and suffered a greater frequency of disease than cows with greater RT in late pregnancy. Moreover, cows characterized by mild inflammatory conditions and without health disorders or only mild health disorders during the puerperium showed a greater average rumination time (over 520 min/d) during the first 10 d of lactation. Conversely, the decreased RT (450 min/d) during the first few days of lactation was observed in cows with subclinical diseases or health disorders. Cows affected by clinical mastitis during the trial showed a reduction of RT and a change in its variability already some days before the drug treatment. Our results suggest that the automatic measurement of RT is useful to predict calving time and to quickly obtain information on health status of the

  14. Hydromagnetic natural convection flow between vertical parallel plates with time-periodic boundary conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Adesanya, S.O.; Oluwadare, E.O.; Falade, J.A.; Makinde, O.D.

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, the free convective flow of magnetohydrodynamic fluid through a channel with time periodic boundary condition is investigated by taking the effects of Joule dissipation into consideration. Based on simplifying assumptions, the coupled governing equations are reduced to a set of nonlinear boundary valued problem. Approximate solutions are obtained by using semi-analytical Adomian decomposition method. The effect of pertinent parameters on the fluid velocity, temperature distribution, Nusselt number and skin friction are presented graphically and discussed. The result of the computation shows that an increase in the magnetic field intensity has significant influence on the fluid flow. - Highlights: • The influence of magnetic field on the free convective fluid flow is considered. • The coupled equations are solved by using Adomian decomposition method. • The Adomian series solution agreed with previously obtained result. • Magnetic field decreases the velocity maximum but enhances temperature field

  15. Conditioning of TJ-II Stellarator during the ECRH Plasmas Period

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tafalla, D.; Tabares, F. L.

    2001-01-01

    The TJ-II stellarator has been conditioned by glow discharge (GD) during the first campaigns of operation, working only with ECR heating and all metal walls. The application of a He GD during the overnight period before the operation has been required in order to obtain reproducible discharges. However, the density control of the ECRH discharges was not possible because of the He implanted on the wall during GS. An short Ar GD(≤30 min) applied before the operation allows desorbes part of the implanted He. By applying this procedure (HeGD+ArGD), reproducible and density controlled plasmas have been achieved in H 2 and He. (Author) 20 refs

  16. Sparse grid spectral methods for the numerical solution of partial differential equations with periodic boundary conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kupka, F.

    1997-11-01

    This thesis deals with the extension of sparse grid techniques to spectral methods for the solution of partial differential equations with periodic boundary conditions. A review on boundary and initial-boundary value problems and a discussion on numerical resolution is used to motivate this research. Spectral methods are introduced by projection techniques, and by three model problems: the stationary and the transient Helmholtz equations, and the linear advection equation. The approximation theory on the hyperbolic cross is reviewed and its close relation to sparse grids is demonstrated. This approach extends to non-periodic problems. Various Sobolev spaces with dominant mixed derivative are introduced to provide error estimates for Fourier approximation and interpolation on the hyperbolic cross and on sparse grids by means of Sobolev norms. The theorems are immediately applicable to the stability and convergence analysis of sparse grid spectral methods. This is explicitly demonstrated for the three model problems. A variant of the von Neumann condition is introduced to simplify the stability analysis of the time-dependent model problems. The discrete Fourier transformation on sparse grids is discussed together with its software implementation. Results on numerical experiments are used to illustrate the performance of the new method with respect to the smoothness properties of each example. The potential of the method in mathematical modelling is estimated and generalizations to other sparse grid methods are suggested. The appendix includes a complete Fortran90 program to solve the linear advection equation by the sparse grid Fourier collocation method and a third-order Runge-Kutta routine for integration in time. (author)

  17. PENERAPAN MODEL ARBITRAGE PRICING THEORY DENGAN PENDEKATAN VECTOR AUTOREGRESSION DALAM MENGESTIMASI EXPECTED RETURN SAHAM (Studi Kasus: Saham-Saham Kompas100 Periode 2010-2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    VIAN RISKA AYUNING TYAS

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT is an alternative model to estimate the price of securities based of arbitrage concept. In APT, the returns of securities are affected by several factors. This research is aimed to estimate the expected returns of securities using APT model and Vector Autoregressive model. There are ten stocks incorporated in Kompas100 index and four macroeconomic variables, these are inflation, exchange rates, the amountof circulate money (JUB, and theinterest rateof Bank Indonesia(SBI are applied in this research. The first step in using VAR is to test the stationary of the data using colerogram and the results indicate that all data are stationary. The second step is to select the optimal lag based on the smallest value of AIC. The Granger causality test shows that the LPKR stock is affected by the inflation and the exchange rate while the nine other stocks do not show the existence of the expected causality. The results of causality test are then estimated by the VAR models in order to obtain expected returnof macroeconomic factors. The expected return of macroeconomic factors obtained is used in the APT model, then the expected return stock LPKR is calculated. It shows that the expected return of LPKR is 3,340%

  18. PENERAPAN MODEL ARBITRAGE PRICING THEORY DENGAN PENDEKATAN VECTOR AUTOREGRESSION DALAM MENGESTIMASI EXPECTED RETURN SAHAM (Studi Kasus: Saham-Saham Kompas100 Periode 2010-2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    VIAN RISKA AYUNING TYAS

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available The Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT is an alternative model to estimate the price of securities based of arbitrage concept. In APT, the returns of securities are affected by several factors. This research is aimed to estimate the expected returns of securities using APT model and Vector Autoregressive model. There are ten stocks incorporated in Kompas100 index and four macroeconomic variables, these are inflation, exchange rates, the amountof circulate money (JUB, and theinterest rateof Bank Indonesia(SBI are applied in this research. The first step in using VAR is to test the stationary of the data using colerogram and the results indicate that all data are stationary. The second step is to select the optimal lag based on the smallest value of AIC. The Granger causality test shows that the LPKR stock is affected by the inflation and the exchange rate while the nine other stocks do not show the existence of the expected causality. The results of causality test are then estimated by the VAR models in order to obtain expected returnof macroeconomic factors. The expected return of macroeconomic factors obtained is used in the APT model, then the expected return stock LPKR is calculated. It shows that the expected return of LPKR is 3,340%

  19. Uranium Sequestration During Biostimulated Reduction and In Response to the Return of Oxic Conditions In Shallow Aquifers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuller, Christopher C.; Johnson, Kelly J.; Akstin, Katherine; Singer, David M.; Yabusaki, Steven B.; Fang, Yilin; Fuhrmann, M.

    2015-01-01

    A proposed approach for groundwater remediation of uranium contamination is to generate reducing conditions by stimulating the growth of microbial populations through injection of electron donor compounds into the subsurface. Sufficiently reducing conditions will result in reduction of soluble hexavalent uranium, U(VI), and precipitation of the less soluble +4 oxidation state uranium, U(IV). This process is termed biostimulated reduction. A key issue in the remediation of uranium (U) contamination in aquifers by biostimulated reduction is the long term stability of the sequestered uranium. Three flow-through column experiments using aquifer sediment were used to evaluate the remobilization of bioreduced U sequestered under conditions in which biostimulation extended well into sulfate reduction to enhance precipitation of reduced sulfur phases such as iron sulfides. One column received added ferrous iron, Fe(II), increasing production of iron sulfides, to test their effect on remobilization of the sequestered uranium, either by serving as a redox buffer by competing for dissolved oxygen, or by armoring the reduced uranium. During biostimulation of the ambient microbial population with acetate, dissolved uranium was lowered by a factor of 2.5 or more with continued removal for over 110 days of biostimulation, well after the onset of sulfate reduction at ~30 days. Sequestered uranium was essentially all U(IV) resulting from the formation of nano-particulate uraninite that coated sediment grains to a thickness of a few 10’s of microns, sometimes in association with S and Fe. A multicomponent biogeochemical reactive transport model simulation of column effluents during biostimulation was generally able to describe the acetate oxidation, iron, sulfate, and uranium reduction for all three columns using parameters derived from simulations of field scale biostimulation experiments. Columns were eluted with artificial groundwater at equilibrium with atmospheric oxygen to

  20. Molecular dynamics simulation of UO2 nanocrystals melting under isolated and periodic boundary conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boyarchenkov, A.S.; Potashnikov, S.I.; Nekrasov, K.A.; Kupryazhkin, A.Ya.

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► We perform MD simulation of UO 2 nanocrystals melting (in range of 768–49 152 ions). ► T(P) melting curves intersect zero near −20 GPa and saturate near 25 GPa. ► Reciprocal size dependences of nanocrystal melting point decrease nonlinearly. ► Linear and parabolic extrapolations to macroscopic values are considered. ► Melting point and density jump are reproduced, but heat of fusion is underestimated. - Abstract: Melting of uranium dioxide (UO 2 ) nanocrystals has been studied by molecular dynamics (MD) simulation. Ten recent and widely used sets of pair potentials were assessed in the rigid ion approximation. Both isolated (in vacuum) and periodic boundary conditions (PBC) were explored. Using barostat under PBC the pressure dependences of melting point were obtained. These curves intersected zero near −20 GPa, saturated near 25 GPa and increased nonlinearly in between. Using simulation of surface under isolated boundary conditions (IBC) recommended melting temperature and density jump were successfully reproduced. However, the heat of fusion is still underestimated. These melting characteristics were calculated for nanocrystals of cubic shape in the range of 768–49 152 particles (volume range of 10–1000 nm 3 ). The obtained reciprocal size dependences decreased nonlinearly. Linear and parabolic extrapolations to macroscopic values are considered. The parabolic one is found to be better suited for analysis of the data on temperature and heat of melting.

  1. Pengaruh Profitabilitas Terhadap Intial Return Dilihat Dari Aspek Cash Basis Dan Accrual Basis (Studi Pada Perusahaan Yang Melakukan Initial Public Offering (Ipo Di Bursa Efek Indonesia Periode Januari 2011 – Agustus 2015

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miranti Dewi Febriani

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The study aims to examine the effect of profitability on Initial Return based on cash basis and accrual basis. The population in this study is companies performing IPO in period of January 2011 – Augustus 2015 as many as 111 companies and are adjusted to several criteria in order to get as many as 70 companies for model 1, 72 companies for model 2, and 53 companies for model 3. It uses simple regression analysis technique assisted by Gretl Software. Interstingly, only ROE affect Initial Return and model 1 has highest R2.

  2. SQUEEZE-E: The Optimal Solution for Molecular Simulations with Periodic Boundary Conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wassenaar, Tsjerk A; de Vries, Sjoerd; Bonvin, Alexandre M J J; Bekker, Henk

    2012-10-09

    In molecular simulations of macromolecules, it is desirable to limit the amount of solvent in the system to avoid spending computational resources on uninteresting solvent-solvent interactions. As a consequence, periodic boundary conditions are commonly used, with a simulation box chosen as small as possible, for a given minimal distance between images. Here, we describe how such a simulation cell can be set up for ensembles, taking into account a priori available or estimable information regarding conformational flexibility. Doing so ensures that any conformation present in the input ensemble will satisfy the distance criterion during the simulation. This helps avoid periodicity artifacts due to conformational changes. The method introduces three new approaches in computational geometry: (1) The first is the derivation of an optimal packing of ensembles, for which the mathematical framework is described. (2) A new method for approximating the α-hull and the contact body for single bodies and ensembles is presented, which is orders of magnitude faster than existing routines, allowing the calculation of packings of large ensembles and/or large bodies. 3. A routine is described for searching a combination of three vectors on a discretized contact body forming a reduced base for a lattice with minimal cell volume. The new algorithms reduce the time required to calculate packings of single bodies from minutes or hours to seconds. The use and efficacy of the method is demonstrated for ensembles obtained from NMR, MD simulations, and elastic network modeling. An implementation of the method has been made available online at http://haddock.chem.uu.nl/services/SQUEEZE/ and has been made available as an option for running simulations through the weNMR GRID MD server at http://haddock.science.uu.nl/enmr/services/GROMACS/main.php .

  3. Transient hydrodynamic finite-size effects in simulations under periodic boundary conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asta, Adelchi J.; Levesque, Maximilien; Vuilleumier, Rodolphe; Rotenberg, Benjamin

    2017-06-01

    We use lattice-Boltzmann and analytical calculations to investigate transient hydrodynamic finite-size effects induced by the use of periodic boundary conditions. These effects are inevitable in simulations at the molecular, mesoscopic, or continuum levels of description. We analyze the transient response to a local perturbation in the fluid and obtain the local velocity correlation function via linear response theory. This approach is validated by comparing the finite-size effects on the steady-state velocity with the known results for the diffusion coefficient. We next investigate the full time dependence of the local velocity autocorrelation function. We find at long times a crossover between the expected t-3 /2 hydrodynamic tail and an oscillatory exponential decay, and study the scaling with the system size of the crossover time, exponential rate and amplitude, and oscillation frequency. We interpret these results from the analytic solution of the compressible Navier-Stokes equation for the slowest modes, which are set by the system size. The present work not only provides a comprehensive analysis of hydrodynamic finite-size effects in bulk fluids, which arise regardless of the level of description and simulation algorithm, but also establishes the lattice-Boltzmann method as a suitable tool to investigate such effects in general.

  4. Convergence analysis of the rebalance methods in multiplying finite slab having periodic boundary conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hong, Ser Gi; Lee, Young Ouk; Song, Jae Seung

    2009-01-01

    This paper analyzes the convergence of the rebalance iteration methods for the discrete ordinates transport equation in the multiplying finite slab problem. The finite slab is assumed to be homogeneous and it has the periodic boundary conditions. A general formulation is used to include three well-known rebalance methods of the linearized form in a unified way. The rebalance iteration methods considered in this paper are the CMR (Coarse-Mesh Rebalance), the CMFD (Coarse-Mesh Finite Difference), and p-CMFD (Partial Current-Based Coarse Mesh Finite Difference) methods which have been popularly used in the reactor physics. The convergence analysis is performed with the well-known Fourier analysis through a linearization. The analyses are applied for one-group problems. The theoretical analysis shows that there are one fundamental mode and N-1 Eigen-modes which determine the convergence if the finite slab is divided into N uniform meshes. The numerical tests show that the Fourier convergence analysis provides the reasonable estimate of the numerical spectral radii for the model problems and the spectral radius for the finite slab approaches the one for the infinite slab as the thickness of the slab increases. (author)

  5. Feasibility of Fiber Bragg Grating and Long-Period Fiber Grating Sensors under Different Environmental Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jian-Neng Wang

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the feasibility of utilizing fiber Bragg grating (FBG and long-period fiber grating (LPFG sensors for nondestructive evaluation (NDE of infrastructures using Portland cement concretes and asphalt mixtures for temperature, strain, and liquid-level monitoring. The use of hybrid FBG and LPFG sensors is aimed at utilizing the advantages of two kinds of fiber grating to implement NDE for monitoring strains or displacements, temperatures, and water-levels of infrastructures such as bridges, pavements, or reservoirs for under different environmental conditions. Temperature fluctuation and stability tests were examined using FBG and LPFG sensors bonded on the surface of asphalt and concrete specimens. Random walk coefficient (RWC and bias stability (BS were used for the first time to indicate the stability performance of fiber grating sensors. The random walk coefficients of temperature variations between FBG (or LPFG sensor and a thermocouple were found in the range of −0.7499 °C/ to −1.3548 °C/. In addition, the bias stability for temperature variations, during the fluctuation and stability tests with FBG (or LPFG sensors were within the range of 0.01 °C/h with a 15–18 h time cluster to 0.09 °C/h with a 3–4 h time cluster. This shows that the performance of FBG or LPFG sensors is comparable with that of conventional high-resolution thermocouple sensors under rugged conditions. The strain measurement for infrastructure materials was conducted using a packaged FBG sensor bonded on the surface of an asphalt specimen under indirect tensile loading conditions. A finite element modeling (FEM was applied to compare experimental results of indirect tensile FBG strain measurements. For a comparative analysis between experiment and simulation, the FEM numerical results agreed with those from FBG strain measurements. The results of the liquid-level sensing tests show the LPFG-based sensor could discriminate five stationary liquid

  6. Volatility return intervals analysis of the Japanese market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, W.-S.; Wang, F. Z.; Havlin, S.; Kaizoji, T.; Moon, H.-T.; Stanley, H. E.

    2008-03-01

    We investigate scaling and memory effects in return intervals between price volatilities above a certain threshold q for the Japanese stock market using daily and intraday data sets. We find that the distribution of return intervals can be approximated by a scaling function that depends only on the ratio between the return interval τ and its mean . We also find memory effects such that a large (or small) return interval follows a large (or small) interval by investigating the conditional distribution and mean return interval. The results are similar to previous studies of other markets and indicate that similar statistical features appear in different financial markets. We also compare our results between the period before and after the big crash at the end of 1989. We find that scaling and memory effects of the return intervals show similar features although the statistical properties of the returns are different.

  7. Deprem Magnitüdleri İçin Tekrarlanma Yıllarının Elde Edilmesi : Marmara Bölgesi Örneği = Obtaining the Return Period of Earthquake Magnitudes : As an Example Marmara Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Reşat KASAP

    2003-06-01

    Full Text Available In this study, statistical analysis have been done for 447 earthquake occurrences data, between north (39.500-41.500 and east (26.000-32.500 coordinates in the Marmara Region from 1900 to 2000. It has been found that the probability density and distribution functions of magnitude random variable, and then the return period of earthquakes of various magnitudes have been found.

  8. Characterization of conditionally expressed mutants affecting age-specific Drosophila melanogaster : Lethal conditions and temperature-sensitive periods

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vermeulen, CJ; Bijlsma, R

    The specific genetic basis of inbreeding depression is poorly understood. To address this question, two conditionally expressed lethal effects that were found to cause line-specific life span reductions in two separate inbred lines of Drosophila melanogaster. were characterized phenotypically and

  9. Brown coal prices for power industry in market economy conditions of transitional period

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wagenknecht, J.

    1996-01-01

    Present Polish policy of brown coal prices creation is presented and criticized. Real coal prices, for the period 1993-1995 are given and compared with the prognosis. A new method of prices creation based on coal quality, described in detail, is proposed for transitional period. (A.S.). 2 figs, 3 tabs

  10. Analysis of obese patients' medical conditions in the pre and postoperative periods of bariatric surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rêgo, Anderson DA Silva; Zulin, Aline; Scolari, Sandro; Marcon, Sônia Silva; Radovanovic, Cremilde Aparecida Trindade

    2017-01-01

    to compare the clinical conditions of obese patients in the pre and postoperative period of bariatric surgery. we carried out a descriptive, retrospective, quantitative study by consulting the charts of 134 patients who underwent bariatric surgery in the period from 2009 to 2014. We collected the data between September and November 2015. We performed a descriptive statistical analysis and comparative analysis of anthropometric, metabolic, biochemical and clinical variables, considering six months before and after surgery. the majority of the patients were female (91.8%), with a higher prevalence (35%) in the age group 18-29 years old, complete high-school education (65.6%) and grade III obesity (60.4%). Six months after surgery, weight and lipid profile reduction were significant in both genders, but the impact on biochemical, anthropometric, metabolic and clinical parameters was significant only in female subjects, with a reduction in morbidities associated with obesity, such as arterial hypertension, diabetes mellitus, dyslipidemia and metabolic syndrome and in the use of drugs to control them. bariatric surgery was effective in weight loss, with improvements in anthropometric, metabolic and biochemical parameters and in the reduction of morbidities associated with obesity. comparar as condições clínicas de pacientes obesos em período pré e pós-operatório de cirurgia bariátrica. estudo descritivo, retrospectivo, de abordagem quantitativa, por meio de consulta ao prontuário de 134 pacientes submetidos à cirurgia bariátrica no período de 2009 a 2014. Os dados foram coletados entre os meses de setembro e novembro de 2015. Foi realizada análise estatística descritiva e comparativa das variáveis antropométricas, metabólicas, bioquímicas e clínicas, considerando seis meses antes e após a cirurgia. a maioria dos pacientes era do sexo feminino (91,8%), com maior prevalência (35%) na faixa etária de 18 aos 29 anos, com ensino médio completo (65

  11. Sealed Planetary Return Canister (SPRC), Phase II

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Sample return missions have primary importance in future planetary missions. A basic requirement is that samples be returned in pristine, uncontaminated condition,...

  12. Global exponential stability and periodicity of reaction-diffusion recurrent neural networks with distributed delays and Dirichlet boundary conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lu Junguo; Lu Linji

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, global exponential stability and periodicity of a class of reaction-diffusion recurrent neural networks with distributed delays and Dirichlet boundary conditions are studied by constructing suitable Lyapunov functionals and utilizing some inequality techniques. We first prove global exponential convergence to 0 of the difference between any two solutions of the original neural networks, the existence and uniqueness of equilibrium is the direct results of this procedure. This approach is different from the usually used one where the existence, uniqueness of equilibrium and stability are proved in two separate steps. Secondly, we prove periodicity. Sufficient conditions ensuring the existence, uniqueness, and global exponential stability of the equilibrium and periodic solution are given. These conditions are easy to verify and our results play an important role in the design and application of globally exponentially stable neural circuits and periodic oscillatory neural circuits.

  13. Sufficient conditions for a period incrementing big bang bifurcation in one-dimensional maps

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Avrutin, V; Granados, A; Schanz, M

    2011-01-01

    Typically, big bang bifurcation occurs for one (or higher)-dimensional piecewise-defined discontinuous systems whenever two border collision bifurcation curves collide transversely in the parameter space. At that point, two (feasible) fixed points collide with one boundary in state space and become virtual, and, in the one-dimensional case, the map becomes continuous. Depending on the properties of the map near the codimension-two bifurcation point, there exist different scenarios regarding how the infinite number of periodic orbits are born, mainly the so-called period adding and period incrementing. In our work we prove that, in order to undergo a big bang bifurcation of the period incrementing type, it is sufficient for a piecewise-defined one-dimensional map that the colliding fixed points are attractive and with associated eigenvalues of different signs

  14. Sufficient conditions for a period incrementing big bang bifurcation in one-dimensional maps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Avrutin, V.; Granados, A.; Schanz, M.

    2011-09-01

    Typically, big bang bifurcation occurs for one (or higher)-dimensional piecewise-defined discontinuous systems whenever two border collision bifurcation curves collide transversely in the parameter space. At that point, two (feasible) fixed points collide with one boundary in state space and become virtual, and, in the one-dimensional case, the map becomes continuous. Depending on the properties of the map near the codimension-two bifurcation point, there exist different scenarios regarding how the infinite number of periodic orbits are born, mainly the so-called period adding and period incrementing. In our work we prove that, in order to undergo a big bang bifurcation of the period incrementing type, it is sufficient for a piecewise-defined one-dimensional map that the colliding fixed points are attractive and with associated eigenvalues of different signs.

  15. What Persons with Chronic Health Conditions Need to Maintain or Return to Work-Results of an Online-Survey in Seven European Countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foitzek, Nicole; Ávila, Carolina C; Ivandic, Ivana; Bitenc, Črtomir; Cabello, Maria; Gruber, Sonja; Leonardi, Matilde; Muñoz-Murillo, Amalia; Scaratti, Chiara; Tobiasz-Adamczyk, Beata; Vlachou, Anastasia; Esteban, Eva; Sabariego, Carla; Coenen, Michaela

    2018-03-26

    Chronic health conditions represent the major share of the disease burden in Europe and have a significant impact on work. This study aims to: (1) identify factors that have a negative or positive impact on the work lives of persons with chronic health conditions; (2) explore the needs of these persons to maintain a job or return to work and (3) compare these results with respect to these persons' occupational status. An online survey was performed in seven European countries. Open-ended survey questions were analyzed using qualitative methods. In total, 487 participants with six chronic health conditions participated. The majority of participants named work-related aspects (such as career development, stress at the workplace, work structure and schedule as well as workload), support of others and attitudes of others as being the factors positively and negatively impact their work lives the most. Our study shed light on the importance of changing the attitudes of supervisors and co-workers to counteract stigmatization of persons with chronic health conditions in the workplace. In conclusion, this study provides a basis for developing new strategies of integration and reintegration at work for persons with chronic health conditions in European countries.

  16. What Persons with Chronic Health Conditions Need to Maintain or Return to Work—Results of an Online-Survey in Seven European Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicole Foitzek

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Chronic health conditions represent the major share of the disease burden in Europe and have a significant impact on work. This study aims to: (1 identify factors that have a negative or positive impact on the work lives of persons with chronic health conditions; (2 explore the needs of these persons to maintain a job or return to work and (3 compare these results with respect to these persons’ occupational status. An online survey was performed in seven European countries. Open-ended survey questions were analyzed using qualitative methods. In total, 487 participants with six chronic health conditions participated. The majority of participants named work-related aspects (such as career development, stress at the workplace, work structure and schedule as well as workload, support of others and attitudes of others as being the factors positively and negatively impact their work lives the most. Our study shed light on the importance of changing the attitudes of supervisors and co-workers to counteract stigmatization of persons with chronic health conditions in the workplace. In conclusion, this study provides a basis for developing new strategies of integration and reintegration at work for persons with chronic health conditions in European countries.

  17. Features of the gastric periodic activity in conditions of NO-ergic system disbalance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. V. Severynovska

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Nitric oxide is the main inhibitory mediator of the gastrointestinal smooth muscles’ relaxation which stimulates duodenal mucus and bicarbonate secretion. More recent studies have demonstrated that NO also protected the gastrointestinal tract by inhibiting gastric acid secretion. In this study we investigated gastric secretory and motor activity considering the NO imbalance condition. The experiments were carried out on male white laboratory rats (200–230 g. The control group was treated with 0.9% NaCl solution. The injections of NO donator (1.5 mg/kg of 0.1% (Sigma-Aldrich sodium nitroprusside solution were made in the second and the third groups during 6 and 12 days. The fourth and the fifth group were treated with NO synthesis inhibitor (40 mg/kg of 1% solution (Sigma-Aldrich Nω-nitro-L-arginine during 6 and 12 days respectively. Recording of gastric myoelectric activity (GMA and gastric juice collection were carried out under anesthesia (ketamine, 110 mg/kg. Next, its volume, pH, glycoprotein and pepsin were measured. Within 6-days stimulation of NO excess decreased gastric juice volume by 47% and increased pH compared to control samples. Pepsin level increased by 62% and glycoprotein level decreased by 68% compared to the checkpoint. After 6 days of L-NNA injections we observed the increase of gastric juice secretion volume (78% and pH level, however, pepsin concentration remained unchanged. Glycoprotein level increased by 21% compared to control samples. After 12 day NO synthesis inhibitor injections gastric secretion volume increased by 85%. Gastric juice pH level was 200% higher than the control value and exceeded gastric juice pH level (62% in the third group. In addition, pepsin level tended to decrease when NO deficiency simulation was prolonged. Glycoprotein level decreased by 41% compared to control samples and by 51% compared to the third group. Pepsin level decreased after 12 day NO-inhibitor injections as gastric juice p

  18. Condition of The Stratospheric and Mesospheric Ozone Layer Over Bulgaria for the Period 1996-2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaleyna, Petya; Mukhtarov, Plamen; Miloshev, Nikolay

    2014-05-01

    A detailed analysis of the variations of the stratospheric and mesospheric ozone over Bulgaria, in the period 1996-2012, is presented in the article on the basis of ground and satellite measurements of the Total Ozone Content (TOC). The move of the most important components: yearly running mean values, amplitudes and phases of the first four harmonics of the seasonal cycle. Their mean values for the period and the existing long term trends have been found. An evaluation of the general characteristics of the short term variability of the Total Ozone Content (TOC) over Bulgaria also has been made in the article. The impact of the planetary wave activity of the stratosphere on the total ozone has been studied and the climatology of the oscillation amplitudes with periods of 4, 7, 11 and 25 days has been defined.

  19. Erosividade das chuvas associada a períodos de retorno e probabilidade de ocorrência no estado do Rio de Janeiro Rainfall erosivity associated to return periods and occurrence probability in the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roriz Luciano Machado

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available O conhecimento da erosividade das chuvas associada à probabilidade de ocorrência e ao período de retorno pode contribuir para o planejamento conservacionista de uma região, em médio e longo prazo. A fim de gerar informações para melhor utilizar modelos e controle da erosão, dados de chuvas de 30 séries pluviográficas e pluviométricas, abrangendo 25 municípios, entre 1933 e 2006, foram estudados quanto à adequação das séries e do cálculo da probabilidade de ocorrência teórica (P e período de retorno (T da erosividade das chuvas (EI30 e KE>25, para o Estado do Rio de Janeiro. Foi feita a espacialização do potencial erosivo associado aos períodos de retorno de 2, 5, 10, 20, 50 e 100 anos para todo o Estado. A erosividade anual média (EI30 ou fator R da USLE para qualquer localidade no Estado do Rio de Janeiro pode ser igualada ou superada pelo menos uma vez, em média, em um período de 1,8 a 2,1 anos, com faixa de 48,5 a 54,9 % de probabilidade de ocorrência teórica. As localidades que apresentam maior erosividade associada aos períodos de retorno estão situadas nas mesorregiões Metropolitanas e em partes das mesorregiões Sul e Centro Fluminense. Foi possível identificar de oito a 12 regiões homogêneas, quanto à distribuição espacial da erosividade associada aos períodos de retorno de dois para 100 anos no Estado. De modo geral, a maior variação da distribuição espacial da erosividade apresenta-se na faixa de período de retorno de dois a cinco anos.Knowledge on rainfall erosivity associated to occurrence probability and return periods can contribute to conservation planning in the medium and long term. With the objective of generating information for a better use of medium and long-term erosion models and erosion control, rainfall data of 30 pluviometric and pluviographic data sets from 25 cities ranging from 1933 to 2006 were studied in terms of adjustment of data sets, calculation of the probability of

  20. Modeling the lag period and exponential growth of Listeria monocytogenes under conditions of fluctuating temperature and water activity values.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muñoz-Cuevas, Marina; Fernández, Pablo S; George, Susan; Pin, Carmen

    2010-05-01

    The dynamic model for the growth of a bacterial population described by Baranyi and Roberts (J. Baranyi and T. A. Roberts, Int. J. Food Microbiol. 23:277-294, 1994) was applied to model the lag period and exponential growth of Listeria monocytogenes under conditions of fluctuating temperature and water activity (a(w)) values. To model the duration of the lag phase, the dependence of the parameter h(0), which quantifies the amount of work done during the lag period, on the previous and current environmental conditions was determined experimentally. This parameter depended not only on the magnitude of the change between the previous and current environmental conditions but also on the current growth conditions. In an exponentially growing population, any change in the environment requiring a certain amount of work to adapt to the new conditions initiated a lag period that lasted until that work was finished. Observations for several scenarios in which exponential growth was halted by a sudden change in the temperature and/or a(w) were in good agreement with predictions. When a population already in a lag period was subjected to environmental fluctuations, the system was reset with a new lag phase. The work to be done during the new lag phase was estimated to be the workload due to the environmental change plus the unfinished workload from the uncompleted previous lag phase.

  1. Modeling the Lag Period and Exponential Growth of Listeria monocytogenes under Conditions of Fluctuating Temperature and Water Activity Values▿

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muñoz-Cuevas, Marina; Fernández, Pablo S.; George, Susan; Pin, Carmen

    2010-01-01

    The dynamic model for the growth of a bacterial population described by Baranyi and Roberts (J. Baranyi and T. A. Roberts, Int. J. Food Microbiol. 23:277-294, 1994) was applied to model the lag period and exponential growth of Listeria monocytogenes under conditions of fluctuating temperature and water activity (aw) values. To model the duration of the lag phase, the dependence of the parameter h0, which quantifies the amount of work done during the lag period, on the previous and current environmental conditions was determined experimentally. This parameter depended not only on the magnitude of the change between the previous and current environmental conditions but also on the current growth conditions. In an exponentially growing population, any change in the environment requiring a certain amount of work to adapt to the new conditions initiated a lag period that lasted until that work was finished. Observations for several scenarios in which exponential growth was halted by a sudden change in the temperature and/or aw were in good agreement with predictions. When a population already in a lag period was subjected to environmental fluctuations, the system was reset with a new lag phase. The work to be done during the new lag phase was estimated to be the workload due to the environmental change plus the unfinished workload from the uncompleted previous lag phase. PMID:20208022

  2. Periodic boundary conditions and the error-controlled fast multipole method

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kabadshow, Ivo

    2012-08-22

    The simulation of pairwise interactions in huge particle ensembles is a vital issue in scientific research. Especially the calculation of long-range interactions poses limitations to the system size, since these interactions scale quadratically with the number of particles. Fast summation techniques like the Fast Multipole Method (FMM) can help to reduce the complexity to O(N). This work extends the possible range of applications of the FMM to periodic systems in one, two and three dimensions with one unique approach. Together with a tight error control, this contribution enables the simulation of periodic particle systems for different applications without the need to know and tune the FMM specific parameters. The implemented error control scheme automatically optimizes the parameters to obtain an approximation for the minimal runtime for a given energy error bound.

  3. Evaluation of trickle-bed air biofilter performance under periodic stressed operating conditions as a function of styrene loading.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Daekeun; Cai, Zhangli; Sorial, George A

    2005-02-01

    Trickle-bed air biofilters (TBABs) are suitable for treating volatile organic compounds (VOCs) at a significantly high practical loading because of their controlled environmental conditions. The application of TBAB for treating styrene-contaminated air under periodic backwashing and cyclical nonuse periods at a styrene loading of 0.64-3.17 kg chemical oxygen demand (COD)/m3 x day was the main focus of this study. Consistent long-term efficient performance of TBAB strongly depended on biomass control. A periodic in situ upflow with nutrient solution under media fluidization, that is, backwashing, was approached in this study. Two different nonuse periods were employed to simulate a shutdown for equipment repair or during weekends and holidays. The first is a starvation period without styrene loading, and the second is a stagnant period, which reflects no flow passing through the biofilter. For styrene loadings up to 1.9 kg COD/m3 x day, removal efficiencies consistently above 99% were achieved by conducting a coordinated biomass control strategy, that is, backwashing for 1 hr once per week. Under cyclical nonuse periods for styrene loadings up to 1.27 kg COD/m3 x day, stable long-term performance of the biofilter was maintained at more than 99% removal without employing backwashing. No substantial impact of nonuse periods on the biofilter performance was revealed. However, a coordinated biomass control by backwashing subsequently was unavoidable for attaining consistently high removal efficiency at a styrene loading of 3.17 kg COD/m3 x day. As styrene loading was increased, reacclimation of the biofilter to reach the 99% removal efficiency following backwashing or the nonuse periods was delayed. After the non-use periods, the response of the biofilter was a strong function of the biomass in the bed. No significant difference between the effects of the two different nonuse periods on TBAB performance was observed during the study period.

  4. Time-critical Database Condition Data Handling in the CMS Experiment During the First Data Taking Period

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cavallari, Francesca; Gruttola, Michele de; Di Guida, Salvatore; Innocente, Vincenzo; Pfeiffer, Andreas; Govi, Giacomo; Pierro, Antonio

    2011-01-01

    Automatic, synchronous and reliable population of the condition databases is critical for the correct operation of the online selection as well as of the offline reconstruction and analysis of data. In this complex infrastructure, monitoring and fast detection of errors is a very challenging task. In this paper, we describe the CMS experiment system to process and populate the Condition Databases and make condition data promptly available both online for the high-level trigger and offline for reconstruction. The data are automatically collected using centralized jobs or are 'dropped' by the users in dedicated services (offline and online drop-box), which synchronize them and take care of writing them into the online database. Then they are automatically streamed to the offline database, and thus are immediately accessible offline worldwide. The condition data are managed by different users using a wide range of applications. In normal operation the database monitor is used to provide simple timing information and the history of all transactions for all database accounts, and in the case of faults it is used to return simple error messages and more complete debugging information.

  5. Boundary-value problems with integral conditions for a system of Lame equations in the space of almost periodic functions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Volodymyr S. Il'kiv

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available We study a problem with integral boundary conditions in the time coordinate for a system of Lame equations of dynamic elasticity theory of an arbitrary dimension. We find necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence and uniqueness of solution in the class of almost periodic functions in the spatial variables. To solve the problem of small denominators arising while constructing solutions, we use the metric approach.

  6. Global exponential stability and periodicity of reaction-diffusion delayed recurrent neural networks with Dirichlet boundary conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lu Junguo

    2008-01-01

    In this paper, the global exponential stability and periodicity for a class of reaction-diffusion delayed recurrent neural networks with Dirichlet boundary conditions are addressed by constructing suitable Lyapunov functionals and utilizing some inequality techniques. We first prove global exponential converge to 0 of the difference between any two solutions of the original reaction-diffusion delayed recurrent neural networks with Dirichlet boundary conditions, the existence and uniqueness of equilibrium is the direct results of this procedure. This approach is different from the usually used one where the existence, uniqueness of equilibrium and stability are proved in two separate steps. Furthermore, we prove periodicity of the reaction-diffusion delayed recurrent neural networks with Dirichlet boundary conditions. Sufficient conditions ensuring the global exponential stability and the existence of periodic oscillatory solutions for the reaction-diffusion delayed recurrent neural networks with Dirichlet boundary conditions are given. These conditions are easy to check and have important leading significance in the design and application of reaction-diffusion recurrent neural networks with delays. Finally, two numerical examples are given to show the effectiveness of the obtained results

  7. Accuracy of circadian entrainment under fluctuating light conditions : Contributions of phase and period responses

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beersma, DGM; Daan, S; Hut, RA

    The accuracy with which a circadian pacemaker can entrain to an environmental 24-h zeitgeber signal depends on (a) characteristics of the entraining signal and (b) response characteristics and intrinsic stability of the pacemaker itself. Position of the sun, weather conditions, shades, and

  8. Generative period in development of Mammillaria Haw. (Cactaceae Juss. plants in greenhouse conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kateryna Baglay

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available The taxonomic composition of the collection of the genus Mammillariain O.V. Fomin Botanical Garden, as well as the peculiarities of blooming and seed germination have been considered. The list of the plants from the genus Mammillariain this collection which are included into IUCN Red List have been represented. The optimal conditions of seed conservation have been determined.

  9. [MICROCLIMATE CONDITION IN SUBWAY CARS IN THE SUMMER PERIOD OF THE YEAR].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leksin, A G; Evlampieva, M N; Timoshenkova, E V; Morgunov, A V; Kaptsov, V A

    2015-01-01

    There are presented the results of the work, which aims to identify the relationship between the temperature of air in the salons of subway cars from the heat output of passengers in different people occupancy of cars during "peak hours", and to determine the efficacy offorced air handling regular ventilation or air conditioning system to remove the elevated heat load on passengers. In the work there was used the method of calculating the amount of heat output of 215 passengers (nominal fullness of the chamber) and the simulation method of heat and moisture output of the same number of passengers. The operating system of ventilation has been shown to fail to decline the average temperature of the air in the passenger compartment to the optimum values and most efficient approach for the reducing the heat load on the passengers is the use of air conditioning systems.

  10. Hormonal profile and body condition scoring in dairy cows during pre partum and post partum periods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mária Vargová

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to evaluate the dynamics of selected indicators of energy, hormonal profile, body condition score (BCS and their relationships in dairy cows of the Slovak Pied Cattle from 3 weeks before parturition to 9 weeks after. Significant differences were found in the mean values of non-esterified fatty acids (NEFA (P P post partum (P P P P P P < 0.05. These data provide evidence that the variations in the concentrations of leptin, ghrelin, and insulin are related to variations in the BCS. Negative correlation between leptin and ghrelin contributes to the argument that leptin negatively regulates ghrelin.

  11. Change in muscle thickness under contracting conditions following return to sports after a hamstring muscle strain injury—A pilot study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yasuharu Nagano

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to measure the change in hamstring muscle thickness between contracting and relaxing conditions following a return to sports after a hamstring muscle strain and thereby evaluate muscle function. Six male track and field sprinters participated in this study. All had experienced a prior hamstring strain injury that required a minimum of 2 weeks away from sport participation. Transverse plane scans were performed at the following four points on the affected and unaffected sides under contracting and relaxing conditions: proximal biceps femoris long head, proximal semitendinosus, middle biceps femoris long head, and middle semitendinosus. The results demonstrated an increase in the thickness of the middle biceps femoris long head and middle semitendinosus regions on the unaffected side with contraction, whereas the affected side did not show a significant increase. The proximal semitendinosus muscle thickness was increased with contraction on both the unaffected and the affected sides. By contrast, the proximal biceps femoris muscle thickness did not show a significant increase on both sides. The results of this study show that evaluation of muscle thickness during contraction may be useful for assessing the change in muscle function after a hamstring muscle strain injury.

  12. Numerical analysis of pressure and porosity evolution in lava domes during periodic degassing conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hyman, D.; Bursik, M. I.; Pitman, E. B.

    2017-12-01

    The collapse or explosive breakup of growing and degassing lava domes presents a significant hazard due to the generation of dense, mobile pyroclastic flows as well as the wide dispersal of dense ballistic blocks. Lava dome stability is in large part governed by the balance of transport and storage of gas within the pore space. Because pore pressurization reduces the effective stress within a dome, the transient distribution of elevated gas pressure is critically important to understanding dome break up. We combine mathematical and numerical analyses to gain a better understanding of the temporal variation in gas flow and storage within the dome system. In doing so, we develop and analyze new governing equations describing nonlinear gas pressure diffusion in a deforming dome with an evolving porosity field. By relating porosity, permeability, and pressure, we show that the flux of gas through a dome is highly sensitive to the porosity distribution and viscosity of the lava, as well as the timescale and magnitude of the gas supply. The numerical results suggest that the diffusion of pressure and porosity variations play an integral role in the cyclic growth and destruction of small domes.The nearly continuous cycles of lava dome growth, pressurization, and failure that have characterized the last two decades of eruptive history at Volcán Popocatépetl, Mexico provide excellent natural data with which to compare new models of transient dome pressurization. At Popocatépetl, periodic pressure increases brought on by changes in gas supply into the base of the dome may play a role in its cyclic growth and destruction behavior. We compare our model of cyclic pressurization with lava dome survival data from Popocatépetl. We show that transient changes in pore pressure explain how small lava domes evolve to a state of criticality before explosion or collapse. Additionally, numerical analyses presented here suggest that short-term oscillations cannot arise within the dome

  13. Returns to schooling in the Portuguese economy: a reassessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Manuel Campos

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper provides an overview of the evolution of private returns to schooling in the Portuguese economy along the 1986-2013 period. We estimate the returns separately for men and women, at the mean and along the conditional wage distribution. Returns to schooling are found to be high, particularly for women, and to increase along the distribution. The magnitude of the returns increased throughout the 1986-2013 period, but particularly in the 1990s. We also provide estimates of the relative wage premium associated with specific levels of educational attainment and find that they are highest for tertiary education. In the first decades under analysis, relative wage premia associated with the 9th grade stand above those estimated for secondary education, whereas in the most recent period these differences are negligible.

  14. Return to nucleate boiling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shumway, R.W.

    1985-01-01

    This paper presents a collection of TMIN (temperature of return to nucleate boiling) correlations, evaluates them under several conditions, and compares them with a wide range of data. Purpose is to obtain the best one for use in a water reactor safety computer simulator known as TRAC-B. Return to nucleate boiling can occur in a reactor accident at either high or low pressure and flow rates. Most of the correlations yield unrealistic results under some conditions. A new correlation is proposed which overcomes many of the deficiencies

  15. THERMAL AND OXYGEN CONDITIONS IN CARP PONDS DURING THE SUMMER PERIOD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Magdalena Wiśnios

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The work presents changes of oxygen indices in carp ponds during the summer season. The basis of the research were regular water tests conducted in two ponds: Mydlniki II intended for carp farming in the second year of fish production cycle and Bocian used for carp farming in the third (final year of breeding. The temperature of pond water in July and August was optimal for development and farming of cyprinid fish and ranged from 16.6 to 30.5 °C. The lowest value of oxygen dissolved in water (6.4 mg·dm-3 was registered in Mydlniki II pond and was higher than the oxygen optimum for carp (5 mg·dm-3. Oxygen saturation in water of fish ponds exceeded the optimum upper limit value (168% on a few dates, however, it posed no lethal threat for fish. In August in Bocian pond oxygen saturation fell within the range of optimal values, creating better conditions for fish development. In the secondary pond (Mydlniki II it was found that oxygen saturation in water on 12 dates was lower than the low optimal value (96%.

  16. The Returns to Entrepreneurship

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Van Praag, Mirjam; Raknerud, Arvid

    Empirical studies show low pecuniary returns of switching from wage employment to entrepreneurship. We reconsider the pecuniary gains of this switching by employing a two-stage procedure, where the randomness in the timing of inheritance transfers is used as an exclusion restriction to identify...... causal effects. The model is estimated on data covering the whole Norwegian population of individuals matched to the entire population of firms established in the period 2002-2011. The results indicate that the average returns to entrepreneurship are significantly negative for individuals entering...... entrepreneurship through self-employment and modest, but significantly positive, for incorporated startups....

  17. Macro factors in oil futures returns

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Le Pen, Yannick; Sevi, Benoit

    2012-01-01

    We investigate the macro factors that can explain the monthly oil futures return for the NYMEX WTI futures contract for the time period 1993:11 to 2010:03. We build a new database of 187 real and nominal macro-economic variables from developed and emerging countries and resort to the large factor approximate model to extract 9 factors from this dataset. We then regress crude oil return on several combinations of these factors. Our best model explains around 38% of the variability of oil futures return. More interestingly, the factor which has the largest influence on crude oil price is related to real variables from emerging countries. This result confirms the latest finding in the literature that the recent evolution in oil price is attributable to change in supply and demand conditions and not to the large increase in trading activity from speculators. (authors)

  18. Stakeholders identify similar barriers but different strategies to facilitate return-to-work: A vignette of a worker with an upper extremity condition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peters, Susan E; Truong, Anthony P; Johnston, Venerina

    2018-01-01

    Stakeholders involved in the return-to-work (RTW) process have different roles and qualificationsOBJECTIVE:To explore the perspectives of Australian stakeholders of the RTW barriers and strategies for a worker with an upper extremity condition and a complex workers' compensation case. Using a case vignette, stakeholders were asked to identify barriers and recommend strategies to facilitate RTW. Content analysis was performed on the open-ended responses. The responses were categorised into RTW barriers and strategies using the biopsychosocial model. Pearson's Chi Square and ANOVA were performed to establish group differences. 621 participants (488 healthcare providers (HCPs), 62 employers, 55 insurers and 16 lawyers) identified 36 barriers (31 modifiable): 4 demographic; 8 biological; 15 psychological and 9 social barriers. 484 participants reported 16 RTW strategies: 4 biological; 6 psychological and 6 social strategies. 'Work relationship stressors' (83.4%) and 'Personal relationship stressors' (64.7%) were the most frequently nominated barriers. HCPs most frequently nominated 'Pain management' (49.6%), while employers, insurers and lawyers nominated 'RTW planning/Suitable duties programs' (40.5%; 42.9%; 80%). Stakeholders perceived similar barriers for RTW but recommended different strategies. Stakeholders appeared to be more proficient in identifying barriers than recommending strategies. Future research should focus on tools to both identify RTW barriers and direct intervention.

  19. "Dis-able bodied" or "dis-able minded": stakeholders' return-to-work experiences compared between physical and mental health conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vossen, Emmie; Van Gestel, Nicolette; Van der Heijden, Beatrice I J M; Rouwette, Etiënne A J A

    2017-05-01

    This study aimed to explore if and why the return-to-work (RTW) experiences of various workplace stakeholders in the Netherlands and Denmark differ between physical and mental health conditions, and to understand the consequences of potentially different experiences for the RTW process in both health conditions. We studied 21 cases of long-term sickness absence, and held a total of 61 semi-structured interviews with the various actors involved in these cases. Physical cases were seen as "easy" and mental cases as "difficult" to manage, based on the visibility and predictability of health complaints. On this ground, assessing work ability and following required RTW actions were perceived as more urgent in mental than in physical cases. Despite these perceptions, in practice, the assessment of work ability seemed to impair the RTW process in mental cases (but not in physical ones), and the (non-)uptake of RTW actions appeared to have similar results in both mental and physical cases. With these outcomes, the effectiveness of a differential approach is questioned, and the relevance of a bidirectional dialog on work ability and a phased RTW plan is highlighted, regardless of the absence cause. Our study also demonstrates how policymakers need to strike a balance between obligatory and permissive legislation to better involve workplaces in RTW issues. Implications for rehabilitation Both physically and mentally sick-listed employees could benefit from a bidirectional dialog on work ability as well as from a phased RTW plan. A greater role for employers in the RTW process should be accompanied with a support for sick-listed employees, in both physical and mental sickness absence cases. Dutch and Danish RTW legislation could be improved by carefully balancing obligatory and permissive rules and regulations to involve workplaces in RTW matters.

  20. Gold Returns

    OpenAIRE

    Robert J. Barro; Sanjay P. Misra

    2013-01-01

    From 1836 to 2011, the average real rate of price change for gold in the United States is 1.1% per year and the standard deviation is 13.1%, implying a one-standard-deviation confidence band for the mean of (0.1%, 2.1%). The covariances of gold's real rate of price change with consumption and GDP growth rates are small and statistically insignificantly different from zero. These negligible covariances suggest that gold's expected real rate of return--which includes an unobserved dividend yiel...

  1. Returning home

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Agergaard, Jytte; Brøgger, Ditte

    2016-01-01

    flows. By focusing on these educational migrants, this paper explores how they connect to their rural homes. Guided by a critical reading of the migration-development scholarship, the paper examines how migrants and their relatives make sense of educational migrants’ remitting and returning practices......, and by comparing three groups of educational migrants, the migrants’ reasons for staying connected and sending remittances are scrutinized. The paper finds that although educational migrants do not generate extensive economic remittances for local development in Nepal, they stay connected to their rural homes...

  2. Efflux Performance of Submicron Particles in Packed Bed under Periodic Pressure Conditions; Shuki atsuho ni yoru juten sonai sabumikuron biryushi no ryushutsu tokusei

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ping, Z; Iritani, E; Murase, T [Nagaya Univ. Nagoya (Japan). Department of Chemical Engineering

    1997-09-01

    Permeation experiments of ultrapure water were conducted under periodic pressure conditions using a packed bed obtained by dispersing submicron particles of polymethyl methacrylate (PMMA) uniformly into a packed bed of particles of White Alundum. It is clearly demonstrated that washing performance under periodic pressure conditions where the permeation pressure is applied periodically is improved dramatically, compared with that under constant pressure conditions. It is also shown that the effect of periodic pressure operation is especially noticeable in the initial stage of the pressurizing period, and that a pressurizing time smaller than 2 min is very effective under conditions examined in this study. 4 figs.

  3. Electrostatic interactions in finite systems treated with periodic boundary conditions: application to linear-scaling density functional theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hine, Nicholas D M; Dziedzic, Jacek; Haynes, Peter D; Skylaris, Chris-Kriton

    2011-11-28

    We present a comparison of methods for treating the electrostatic interactions of finite, isolated systems within periodic boundary conditions (PBCs), within density functional theory (DFT), with particular emphasis on linear-scaling (LS) DFT. Often, PBCs are not physically realistic but are an unavoidable consequence of the choice of basis set and the efficacy of using Fourier transforms to compute the Hartree potential. In such cases the effects of PBCs on the calculations need to be avoided, so that the results obtained represent the open rather than the periodic boundary. The very large systems encountered in LS-DFT make the demands of the supercell approximation for isolated systems more difficult to manage, and we show cases where the open boundary (infinite cell) result cannot be obtained from extrapolation of calculations from periodic cells of increasing size. We discuss, implement, and test three very different approaches for overcoming or circumventing the effects of PBCs: truncation of the Coulomb interaction combined with padding of the simulation cell, approaches based on the minimum image convention, and the explicit use of open boundary conditions (OBCs). We have implemented these approaches in the ONETEP LS-DFT program and applied them to a range of systems, including a polar nanorod and a protein. We compare their accuracy, complexity, and rate of convergence with simulation cell size. We demonstrate that corrective approaches within PBCs can achieve the OBC result more efficiently and accurately than pure OBC approaches.

  4. Relationship between serum adiponectin concentration, body condition score, and peripheral tissue insulin response of dairy cows during the dry period.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Koster, J; Urh, C; Hostens, M; Van den Broeck, W; Sauerwein, H; Opsomer, G

    2017-04-01

    The aim of the present study was to describe the relationship between serum adiponectin concentration and peripheral tissue insulin response in dairy cows with a variable body condition score (BCS) during the dry period. Cows were selected at the beginning of the dry period based on BCS (BCS 3.75, n = 5). Animals were followed from the beginning of the dry period by weekly blood sampling and assessment of BCS and backfat thickness. Weekly blood samples were analyzed for adiponectin concentration using a bovine specific ELISA. Hyperinsulinemic euglycemic clamp tests were performed at the end of the dry period to measure peripheral tissue insulin response. Insulin dose response curves were established for both glucose and fatty acid metabolism. Regression analysis revealed that the serum concentrations of adiponectin dropped at the end of the dry period (P insulin responsiveness (reflecting the maximal effect of insulin; r = 0.76, P insulin sensitivity (reflecting the insulin concentration needed to achieve halfmaximal effect; r = -0.54, P = 0.13). At the level of the fatty acid metabolism, greater adiponectin concentrations were negatively correlated with lower NEFA levels during the HEC test reflecting the insulin responsiveness of the NEFA metabolism (r = -0.61, P = 0.08), whereas there was no association with the insulin sensitivity of the NEFA metabolism (r = -0.16, P = 0.67). In conclusion, serum concentrations of adiponectin were negatively associated with the BCS of dairy cows during the dry period and positively associated with insulin responsiveness of the glucose and fatty acid metabolism. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Returns to Scale and Damages to Scale with Strong Complementary Slackness Conditions in DEA Assessment: Japanese Corporate Effort on Environment Protection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sueyoshi, Toshiyuki; Goto, Mika

    2012-01-01

    This study proposes a use of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) for environmental assessment. All organizations in private and public sectors produce not only desirable (good) but also undesirable (bad) outputs as a result of their economic activities. The proposed use of DEA determines the level of unified (operational and environmental) efficiency of all the organizations. A contribution of this study is that it explores how to measure not only RTS (Returns to Scale) on desirable outputs but also a new concept regarding “DTS: Damages to Scale” (corresponding to RTS for undesirable outputs). This study discusses how to measure RTS under natural disposability and DTS under managerial disposability by DEA. The measurement of RTS and DTS is formulated by incorporating “Strong Complementary Slackness Conditions (SCSCs)”. As a result, this study can handle an occurrence of multiple reference sets and multiple projections in the RTS/DTS measurement. The incorporation of SCSCs makes it possible both to restrict DEA multipliers in a specific range without any prior information and to identify all possible efficient organizations as a reference set. Using the unique capabilities of SCSCs, this study discusses the use of DEA environmental assessment by exploring how to classify the type of RTS/DTS with SCSCs. Such analytical capabilities are essential, but not previously explored in DEA environmental assessment for energy industries. As an illustrative example, this study applies the proposed approach for the performance evaluation of Japanese manufacturing industries. This study finds that these firms need to introduce technology innovation to reduce an amount of greenhouse gases and wastes. The empirical result confirms the importance of measuring RTS/DTS in DEA environmental assessment.

  6. Second-order Optimality Conditions for Optimal Control of the Primitive Equations of the Ocean with Periodic Inputs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tachim Medjo, T.

    2011-01-01

    We investigate in this article the Pontryagin's maximum principle for control problem associated with the primitive equations (PEs) of the ocean with periodic inputs. We also derive a second-order sufficient condition for optimality. This work is closely related to Wang (SIAM J. Control Optim. 41(2):583-606, 2002) and He (Acta Math. Sci. Ser. B Engl. Ed. 26(4):729-734, 2006), in which the authors proved similar results for the three-dimensional Navier-Stokes (NS) systems.

  7. Active and passive avoidance conditioning for rats which received x-ray irradiation in their embryonal period

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tamaki, Yoshitaka; Inoue, Minoru; Kameyama, Yoshiro

    1983-01-01

    Fischer rats at 17 gestational days were given 200 R of x-ray, and their offsprings were subjected to conditioning of active and passive avoidance against a shuttle box stimulation. These rats irradiated in their embryonal period learned active avoidance reaction more rapidly than control rats, but it took time for them to gain passive avoidance reaction. This result seemed to suggest activated reactibility of the irradiated animals in avoiding the shuttle box stimulation. In the irradiated rats, frequency of the passive avoidance reaction increased gradually as they learned with training. (Ueda, J.)

  8. Region-specific roles of the prelimbic cortex, the dorsal CA1, the ventral DG and ventral CA1 of the hippocampus in the fear return evoked by a sub-conditioning procedure in rats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Juan; Xing, Xiaoli; Han, Mengfi; Xu, Na; Piao, Chengji; Zhang, Yue; Zheng, Xigeng

    2016-02-01

    The return of learned fear is an important issue in anxiety disorder research since an analogous process may contribute to long-term fear maintenance or clinical relapse. A number of studies demonstrate that mPFC and hippocampus are important in the modulation of post-extinction re-expression of fear memory. However, the region-specific role of these structures in the fear return evoked by a sub-threshold conditioning (SC) is not known. In the present experiments, we first examined specific roles of the prelimbic cortex (PL), the dorsal hippocampus (DH, the dorsal CA1 area in particular), the ventral hippocampus (the ventral dentate gyrus (vDG) and the ventral CA1 area in particular) in this fear return process. Then we examined the role of connections between PL and vCA1 with this behavioral approach. Rats were subjected to five tone-shock pairings (1.0-mA shock) to induce conditioned fear (freezing), followed by three fear extinction sessions (25 tone-alone trials each session). After a post-test for extinction memory, some rats were retrained with the SC procedure to reinstate tone-evoked freezing. Rat groups were injected with low doses of the GABAA agonist muscimol to selectively inactivate PL, DH, vDG, or vCA1 120 min before the fear return test. A disconnection paradigm with ipsilateral or contralateral muscimol injection of the PL and the vCA1 was used to examine the role of this pathway in the fear return. We found that transient inactivation of these areas significantly impaired fear return (freezing): inactivation of the prelimbic cortex blocked SC-evoked fear return in particular but did not influence fear expression in general; inactivation of the DH area impaired fear return, but had no effect on the extinction retrieval process; both ventral DG and ventral CA1 are required for the return of extinguished fear whereas only ventral DG is required for the extinction retrieval. These findings suggest that PL, DH, vDG, and vCA1 all contribute to the fear

  9. Integrated Supply Chain Cooperative Inventory Model with Payment Period Being Dependent on Purchasing Price under Defective Rate Condition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming-Feng Yang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In most commercial transactions, the buyer and vendor may usually agree to postpone payment deadline. During such delayed period, the buyer is entitled to keep the products without having to pay the sale price. However, the vendor usually hopes to receive full payment as soon as possible, especially when the transaction involves valuable items; yet, the buyer would offer a higher purchasing price in exchange of a longer postponement. Therefore, we assumed such permissible delayed period is dependent on the purchasing price. As for the manufacturing side, defective products are inevitable from time to time, and not all of those defective products can be repaired. Hence, we would like to add defective production and repair rate to our proposed model and discuss how these factors may affect profits. In addition, holding cost, ordering cost, and transportation cost will also be considered as we develop the integrated inventory model with price-dependent payment period under the possible condition of defective products. We would like to find the maximum of the joint expected total profit for our model and come up with a suitable inventory policy accordingly. In the end, we have also provided a numerical example to clearly illustrate possible solutions.

  10. Automatic machine-learning based identification of jogging periods from accelerometer measurements of adolescents under field conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zdravevski, Eftim; Risteska Stojkoska, Biljana; Standl, Marie; Schulz, Holger

    2017-01-01

    Assessment of health benefits associated with physical activity depend on the activity duration, intensity and frequency, therefore their correct identification is very valuable and important in epidemiological and clinical studies. The aims of this study are: to develop an algorithm for automatic identification of intended jogging periods; and to assess whether the identification performance is improved when using two accelerometers at the hip and ankle, compared to when using only one at either position. The study used diarized jogging periods and the corresponding accelerometer data from thirty-nine, 15-year-old adolescents, collected under field conditions, as part of the GINIplus study. The data was obtained from two accelerometers placed at the hip and ankle. Automated feature engineering technique was performed to extract features from the raw accelerometer readings and to select a subset of the most significant features. Four machine learning algorithms were used for classification: Logistic regression, Support Vector Machines, Random Forest and Extremely Randomized Trees. Classification was performed using only data from the hip accelerometer, using only data from ankle accelerometer and using data from both accelerometers. The reported jogging periods were verified by visual inspection and used as golden standard. After the feature selection and tuning of the classification algorithms, all options provided a classification accuracy of at least 0.99, independent of the applied segmentation strategy with sliding windows of either 60s or 180s. The best matching ratio, i.e. the length of correctly identified jogging periods related to the total time including the missed ones, was up to 0.875. It could be additionally improved up to 0.967 by application of post-classification rules, which considered the duration of breaks and jogging periods. There was no obvious benefit of using two accelerometers, rather almost the same performance could be achieved from

  11. Automatic machine-learning based identification of jogging periods from accelerometer measurements of adolescents under field conditions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eftim Zdravevski

    Full Text Available Assessment of health benefits associated with physical activity depend on the activity duration, intensity and frequency, therefore their correct identification is very valuable and important in epidemiological and clinical studies. The aims of this study are: to develop an algorithm for automatic identification of intended jogging periods; and to assess whether the identification performance is improved when using two accelerometers at the hip and ankle, compared to when using only one at either position.The study used diarized jogging periods and the corresponding accelerometer data from thirty-nine, 15-year-old adolescents, collected under field conditions, as part of the GINIplus study. The data was obtained from two accelerometers placed at the hip and ankle. Automated feature engineering technique was performed to extract features from the raw accelerometer readings and to select a subset of the most significant features. Four machine learning algorithms were used for classification: Logistic regression, Support Vector Machines, Random Forest and Extremely Randomized Trees. Classification was performed using only data from the hip accelerometer, using only data from ankle accelerometer and using data from both accelerometers.The reported jogging periods were verified by visual inspection and used as golden standard. After the feature selection and tuning of the classification algorithms, all options provided a classification accuracy of at least 0.99, independent of the applied segmentation strategy with sliding windows of either 60s or 180s. The best matching ratio, i.e. the length of correctly identified jogging periods related to the total time including the missed ones, was up to 0.875. It could be additionally improved up to 0.967 by application of post-classification rules, which considered the duration of breaks and jogging periods. There was no obvious benefit of using two accelerometers, rather almost the same performance could be

  12. Assessment of some high-order finite difference schemes on the scalar conservation law with periodical conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alina BOGOI

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Supersonic/hypersonic flows with strong shocks need special treatment in Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD in order to accurately capture the discontinuity location and his magnitude. To avoid numerical instabilities in the presence of discontinuities, the numerical schemes must generate low dissipation and low dispersion error. Consequently, the algorithms used to calculate the time and space-derivatives, should exhibit a low amplitude and phase error. This paper focuses on the comparison of the numerical results obtained by simulations with some high resolution numerical schemes applied on linear and non-linear one-dimensional conservation low. The analytical solutions are provided for all benchmark tests considering smooth periodical conditions. All the schemes converge to the proper weak solution for linear flux and smooth initial conditions. However, when the flux is non-linear, the discontinuities may develop from smooth initial conditions and the shock must be correctly captured. All the schemes accurately identify the shock position, with the price of the numerical oscillation in the vicinity of the sudden variation. We believe that the identification of this pure numerical behavior, without physical relevance, in 1D case is extremely useful to avoid problems related to the stability and convergence of the solution in the general 3D case.

  13. Experimental study on occupant's thermal responses under the non-uniform conditions in vehicle cabin during the heating period

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Wencan; Chen, Jiqing; Lan, Fengchong

    2014-03-01

    The existing investigations on thermal comfort mostly focus on the thermal environment conditions, especially of the air-flow field and the temperature distributions in vehicle cabin. Less attention appears to direct to the thermal comfort or thermal sensation of occupants, even to the relationship between thermal conditions and thermal sensation. In this paper, a series of experiments were designed and conducted for understanding the non-uniform conditions and the occupant's thermal responses in vehicle cabin during the heating period. To accurately assess the transient temperature distribution in cabin in common daily condition, the air temperature at a number of positions is measured in a full size vehicle cabin under natural winter environment in South China by using a discrete thermocouples network. The occupant body is divided into nine segments, the skin temperature at each segment and the occupant's local thermal sensation at the head, body, upper limb and lower limb are monitored continuously. The skin temperature is observed by using a discrete thermocouples network, and the local thermal sensation is evaluated by using a seven-point thermal comfort survey questionnaire proposed by American Society of Heating, Refrigerating and Air-Conditioning Engineers, Inc(ASHRAE) Standard. The relationship between the skin temperature and the thermal sensation is discussed and regressed by statistics method. The results show that the interior air temperature is highly non-uniform over the vehicle cabin. The locations where the occupants sit have a significant effect on the occupant's thermal responses, including the skin temperature and the thermal sensation. The skin temperature and thermal sensation are quite different between body segments due to the effect of non-uniform conditions, clothing resistance, and the human thermal regulating system. A quantitative relationship between the thermal sensation and the skin temperature at each body segment of occupant in

  14. A condition-based maintenance policy with non-periodic inspections for a two-unit series system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Castanier, B.; Grall, A.; Berenguer, C.

    2005-01-01

    This paper considers a condition-based maintenance policy for a two-unit deteriorating system. Each unit is subject to gradual deterioration and is monitored by sequential non-periodic inspections. It can be maintained by good as new preventive or corrective replacements. Every inspection or replacement entails a set-up cost and a component-specific unit cost but if actions on the two components are combined, the set-up cost is charged only once. A parametric maintenance decision framework is proposed to coordinate inspection/replacement of the two components and minimize the long-run maintenance cost of the system. A stochastic model is developed on the basis of the semi-regenerative properties of the maintained system state and the associated cost model is used to assess and optimize the performance of the maintenance model. Numerical experiments emphasize the interest of a control of the operation groupings

  15. RESEARCHES REGARDING THE TECHNOLOGICAL PERFORMANCES OF CARP REARING DURING WINTER PERIOD IN THE CONDITIONS OF A RECIRCULATING AQUACULTURE SYSTEM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. STEFAN

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available The techniques of carp culture are highly diversified, ranging from the extensive production in pond or open water with no fertilization or supplemental feeding to highly intensive systems in concrete tanks or cages. Among the different carp species, common carp is the best species reared in intensive monoculture, the others (Chinese and Indian carps being usually cultivated in polyculture (P. Kestemont, 1995. An experiment was conducted in inside recirculation system conditions to identify the technological performances on carp growth and survival at the Fishing and Aquaculture Department, Galati, during winter period (February, 2007 – March, 2007. The 1-year-old carp (Cyprinus carpio 4792g; 4594 g; 4561 g and 4525 g (total weight grew to 7384g; 7017g; 6924g and 7125 g in 44 days in aquarium 1, 2, 3 and 4, respectively. In all aquariums, the fish appeared healthy and no mortality was observed. Feed conversion efficiencies (FCE had similar values among all aquariums, the highest FCE being found in B4 aquarium with 1, 57 value. Water quality parameters were acceptable range for fish culture. Results show that the carp rearing during winter period in the inside recirculation system is a very good economic solution.

  16. Homogenous UV/periodate process in treatment of p-nitrophenol aqueous solutions under mild operating conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saien, Javad; Fallah Vahed Bazkiaei, Marzieh

    2018-07-01

    Aqueous solutions of p-nitrophenol (PNP) were treated with UV-activated potassium periodate (UV/KPI) in an efficient photo-reactor. Either periodate or UV alone had little effect; however, their combination led to a significant degradation and mineralization. The response surface methodology was employed for design of experiments and optimization. The optimum conditions for treatment of 30 mg/L of the substrate were determined as [KPI] = 386.3 mg/L, pH = 6.2 and T = 34.6°C, under which 79.5% degradation was achieved after 60 min. Use of 25 and 40 kHz ultrasound waves caused the degradation to enhance to 88.3% and 92.3%, respectively. The intermediates were identified by gas chromatography-mass spectroscopy analysis, leading to propose the reaction pathway. The presence of water conventional bicarbonate, chloride, sulfate and nitrate anions caused unfavorable effects in efficiency. Meanwhile, the kinetic study showed that PNP degradation follows a pseudo-first-order reaction and the activation energy was determined. The irradiation energy consumption required for one order of magnitude degradation was estimated as 11.18 kWh/m 3 . Accordingly, comparison with the previously reported processes showed the superiority of PNP treatment with the employed process.

  17. Different forms, reasons and motivations for return migration of persons who voluntarily decide to return to their countries of origin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Callea, S

    1986-03-01

    Although the 1973 oil crisis did not have the drastic effects on immigration which were originally feared, it did end a period of quasi-liberal immigration policy, establish intense and effective international cooperation on immigration, and arouse great interest in immigration studies and research. This paper analyzes the situations arising as a result of the petroleum shortage and focuses on the conditions relating to the return of emigrants to Southern European countries. This new research draws attention to the following fundamental aspects of the immigration problem: 1) the emigrant's return to his homeland cannot be considered a factor in development; it is a positive element in development only if the right socioeconomic conditions exist in the country of origin. 2) Concern for children's education is one of the most common reasons for return. 3) A large percentage of emigrants are satisfied with their work abroad. 4) An emigrant's return potential is wasted due to the slight use that is made of the resources he offers. 5) Returning workers most often want to set up an independent enterprise. 6) Savings are generally used to buy a house or farm. 7) Vocational level does not increase significantly between emigration and returning, though this increase becomes greater the longer the emigrant stays abroad. 8) The number of returning emigrants is too slight to bring about any change in the country of origin. 9) Incentives and subsidies to encourage return have not had a considerable impact on the decision to return. Callea recommends that officials of the country of origin posted abroad be assigned to counsel returning emigrants on finding employment, attending vocational development courses, obtaining housing, accruing interests and savings, and on the problems and perspectives of sociocultural reintegration.

  18. Rainfall erosivity and rainfall return period in the experimental watershed of Aracruz, in the coastal plain of Espirito Santo, Brazil Erosividade da chuva e tempo de retorno na bacia experimental da Aracruz, região dos tabuleiros costeiros brasileiros

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sérgio Gualberto Martins

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Knowledge on the factors influencing water erosion is fundamental for the choice of the best land use practices. Rainfall, expressed by rainfall erosivity, is one of the most important factors of water erosion. The objective of this study was to determine rainfall erosivity and the return period of rainfall in the Coastal Plains region, near Aracruz, a town in the state of Espírito Santo, Brazil, based on available data. Rainfall erosivity was calculated based on historic rainfall data, collected from January 1998 to July 2004 at 5 min intervals, by automatic weather stations of the Aracruz Cellulose S.A company. A linear regression with individual rainfall and erosivity data was fit to obtain an equation that allowed data extrapolation to calculate individual erosivity for a 30-year period. Based on this data the annual average rainfall erosivity in Aracruz was 8,536 MJ mm ha-1 h-1 yr-1. Of the total annual rainfall erosivity 85 % was observed in the most critical period October to March. Annual erosive rains accounted for 38 % of the events causing erosion, although the runoff volume represented 88 % of the total. The annual average rainfall erosivity return period was estimated to be 3.4 years.O conhecimento dos fatores que influenciam a erosão hídrica é de fundamental importância no planejamento do uso do solo. Dos fatores que alteram a erosão, a precipitação pluvial, expressa pela erosividade da chuva, é um dos mais importantes. Assim, o objetivo deste estudo foi determinar a erosividade e o tempo de retorno para a região dos Tabuleiros Costeiros, no município de Aracruz, ES. Para o cálculo da erosividade, foram utilizados dados pluviométricos de janeiro de 1998 a julho de 2004, obtidos em estações climatológicas automatizadas, localizadas em área experimental da Aracruz Celulose AS, que, para este estudo, geraram dados de 5 em 5 min. A análise de regressão linear entre precipitação pluvial e erosidade para esse per

  19. Prepartum feeding level and body condition score affect immunological performance in grazing dairy cows during the transition period.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lange, Joshua; McCarthy, Allison; Kay, Jane; Meier, Susanne; Walker, Caroline; Crookenden, Mallory A; Mitchell, Murray D; Loor, Juan J; Roche, John R; Heiser, Axel

    2016-03-01

    Precalving feeding level affects dry matter intake, postcalving energy balance, the risk of hepatic lipidosis and metabolic disease, and gene expression in liver and adipose tissue. These coincide with a higher risk of disease postpartum and, very likely, a failure to reach optimum production as well as reproductive targets. Current interpretation of the available evidence suggest that metabolic stressors affect the immune system of transition dairy cows and lead to reduced immunocompetence. The objective of the current study was to investigate the effect of precalving body condition score (BCS) and level of feeding on immunocompetence during the peripartum period. Twenty-three weeks before calving, 78 cows were allocated randomly to 1 of 6 treatment groups (n=13) in a 2 × 3 factorial arrangement: 2 precalving BCS categories (4.0 and 5.0, based on a 10-point scale) and 3 levels of energy intake during the 3 wk preceding calving (75, 100, and 125% of estimated requirements). Blood was sampled precalving and at 1, 2 and 4 wk after calving. Cells were analyzed by flow cytometry and quantitative real-time PCR. The numbers of T helper lymphocytes (CD4+), cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CD8+), natural killer cells (CD335+), and γδ T lymphocytes (WC1+) as well as their activation status [IL-2 receptor (CD25)+ cells] were highly variable between animals, but there was no evident effect of BCS, feeding level, or time. All groups presented with an increase in expression of cytokines in unstimulated blood cells in the week after calving, although this was significant only for IFNG in the BCS 4.0 group. Analysis of in vitro-stimulated cells allowed 2 general observations: (1) cows with high energy intake precalving (125%) had increased cytokine expression precalving, and (2) all cows had increased cytokine expression in the week after calving. The present study provides evidence that prepartum feed management can affect immunocompetence during the transition period. Considering

  20. Leaving from and returning to nursing practice: contributing factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jamieson, Isabel; Taua, Chris

    2009-07-01

    Many nurses leave nursing and never return. Others return after a period of time. Given the global shortage of nurses a better understanding of these movements is needed. The present study focused on nurses who had been out of nursing for more than five years, and explored factors that influenced their leaving and return to practice. All the nurses who had undertaken a Competency Assessment Programme at a given New Zealand tertiary institution during 2005 were invited to participate. Of the 70 questionnaires mailed out 32 (44.5%) were completed and returned. Quantitative data were analysed using Microsoft Excel, and the qualitative data were coded and analysed by means of content analysis. For each, leaving and returning, three key issues emerged. Nurses left for personal reasons, to seek a career change, or because of poor working conditions. They returned when they had the personal freedom to do so, for fiscal reasons, or because they were motivated by some sense of unfinished business. These findings indicate that it is important for educators involved with Competency Assessment Programmes to collaborate with employers in ensuring that there are opportunities for re-entry to positive work environments, with a degree of flexibility that suits the demographic characteristics of those nurses returning to practice.

  1. A novel louvered fin design to enhance thermal and drainage performances during periodic frosting/defrosting conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Min-Hwan; Kim, Hisuk; Kim, Dong Rip; Lee, Kwan-Soo

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Thermal and drainage performances of a novel design louvered fin were investigated. • The thermal performance of the asymmetric fin was improved in the re-frosting cycle. • The asymmetric louvered fin exhibited better drainage on the leading edge of fins. • Lower surface tension between fin surface and water droplet improved the drainage. - Abstract: The retention water on fin surface can significantly degrade the thermal performance of heat exchangers under periodic frosting/defrosting conditions, which also leads to a decrease in the energy efficiency of air-source heat pumps. A novel louvered fin design was suggested to improve the drainage and the thermal performance of heat exchanger. The novel louvered fin had an asymmetric louver arrangement by flattening two louvers on the leading edge. The retention water formed on fin surface markedly decreased the heat transfer rate of the conventional symmetric louvered fins in re-frosting cycles. On the other hand, the asymmetric louvered fins improved the drainage performance of the retention water, which enhanced the heat transfer rate. To identify the reason of the difference in drainage performance between two fin geometries, additional experiments were carried out with enlargement models. The improvement in drainage performance of the asymmetric fin design originated from the lowered surface tension between the fin surface and water droplet.

  2. Maximum entropy state of the quasi-geostrophic bi-disperse point vortex system: bifurcation phenomena under periodic boundary conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Funakoshi, Satoshi; Sato, Tomoyoshi; Miyazaki, Takeshi, E-mail: funakosi@miyazaki.mce.uec.ac.jp, E-mail: miyazaki@mce.uec.ac.jp [Department of Mechanical Engineering and Intelligent Systems, University of Electro-Communications, 1-5-1, Chofugaoka, Chofu, Tokyo 182-8585 (Japan)

    2012-06-01

    We investigate the statistical mechanics of quasi-geostrophic point vortices of mixed sign (bi-disperse system) numerically and theoretically. Direct numerical simulations under periodic boundary conditions are performed using a fast special-purpose computer for molecular dynamics (GRAPE-DR). Clustering of point vortices of like sign is observed and two-dimensional (2D) equilibrium states are formed. It is shown that they are the solutions of the 2D mean-field equation, i.e. the sinh-Poisson equation. The sinh-Poisson equation is generalized to study the 3D nature of the equilibrium states, and a new mean-field equation with the 3D Laplace operator is derived based on the maximum entropy theory. 3D solutions are obtained at very low energy level. These solution branches, however, cannot be traced up to the higher energy level at which the direct numerical simulations are performed, and transitions to 2D solution branches take place when the energy is increased. (paper)

  3. Erosividade, coeficiente de chuva, padrões e período de retorno das chuvas de Quaraí, RS Erosivity, rainfall coefficient and patterns and return period in Quarai, RS, Brazi

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcos Gabriel Peñalva Bazzano

    2007-10-01

    intermediário e 18 % do atrasado. Das chuvas erosivas, 57 % da erosividade correspondeu a chuvas do padrão avançado, 25 % a chuvas do padrão intermediário e 18 % a chuvas do padrão atrasado.The planning of agricultural and civil engineering activities must be based on knowledge of rainfall erosion potential. For Quarai, RS, Brazil, the rainfall erosivity and its relationship with precipitation and rainfall coefficient, rainfall patterns and rainfall return period were determined. Daily rainfall data from the 1966-2003 period were used. For each erosive rainfall the segments of the rainfall chart with the same intensity were separated and the data recorded in a worksheet. The mean precipitation and rainfall patterns were estimated, as well as the monthly and annual erosivity by the EI30 index (International System of Units, using the software Chuveros. The rainfall coefficient was calculated. Pearson correlations and linear regressions between the erosivity index EI30 and the mean annual precipitation and rainfall coefficient (Rc were performed. The rainfall maximum intensity was calculated by the method of extreme distribution type I for different rainfall durations (1/6, 1/3, 1/2, 1, 2, 4, 8, 12, 24 and 48 h and rainfall return periods (2, 5, 10, 20, 50 and 100 years. Equations were adjusted that relate the maximum intensity and rainfall duration to all return periods, by the method of simple linear regression, and the rainfall characteristics related in a graph. The mean annual values of EI30 (R factor of USLE determined for Quarai, RS, Brazil, was 9,292 MJ mm ha-1 h-1 year-1. The following equations were obtained: EI30 = -754.37 + 13.50 p (r² = 0.85 and EI30 = -47.35 + 82.72 Rc (r² = 0.84. In relation to the total precipitation studied, 44 % of the number of rainfalls and 90 % of the volume were erosive. Of the total rainfalls evaluated, 44 % of the number and 90 % of the volume were erosive. Of the total erosive rainfall events, 51 % had an advanced, 25 % had an

  4. 26 CFR 1.6013-2 - Joint return after filing separate return.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... the case of a joint return made under section 6013(b), the period of limitations provided in sections... (c)(1) of this section, relating to the application of sections 6501 and 6651 with respect to a joint... 26 Internal Revenue 13 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Joint return after filing separate return. 1...

  5. ENERGY SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT AND LOAD MANAGEMENT THROUGH THE REHABILITATION AND RETURN TO PLAY PROCESS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morrison, Scot; Ward, Patrick; duManoir, Gregory R

    2017-08-01

    Return-to-play from injury is a complex process involving many factors including the balancing of tissue healing rates with the development of biomotor abilities. This process requires interprofessional cooperation to ensure success. An often-overlooked aspect of return-to-play is the development and maintenance of sports specific conditioning while monitoring training load to ensure that the athlete's training stimulus over the rehabilitation period is appropriate to facilitate a successful return to play. The purpose of this clinical commentary is to address the role of energy systems training as part of the return-to-play process. Additionally the aim is to provide practitioners with an overview of practical sports conditioning training methods and monitoring strategies to allow them to direct and quantify the return-to-play process. 5.

  6. Return-to-Work Program for Injured Workers: Factors of Successful Return to Employment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Awang, Halimah; Shahabudin, Sharifah Muhairah; Mansor, Norma

    2016-11-01

    This study examined the factors of successful return to employment among participants in the return to work program (RTW) following work-related injury. Data were obtained from the Social Security Organization database containing 9850 injured workers who underwent RTW in 2010 to 2013. About 65% had successfully returned to employment. Significant factors of successful return include gender, employer interest, motivation, age, intervention duration, and type of injury. Male and motivated employees were more likely to return to employment compared with female and unmotivated employees, respectively. Participants from interested employers were 23.22 times more likely to return to work than those from uninterested employers, whereas participants whose intervention period exceeded 5 months were 41% less likely to return to work compared with those whose intervention period was within 3 months. Appropriate strategy and enhanced collaboration between the stakeholders would improve the proportion of successful return to employment. © 2016 APJPH.

  7. Lazer-Leach Type Conditions on Periodic Solutions of Liénard Equation with a Deviating Argument at Resonance

    OpenAIRE

    Wang, Zaihong

    2013-01-01

    We study the existence of periodic solutions of Liénard equation with a deviating argument $x\\mathrm{\\prime \\prime }+f\\left(x\\right)x\\mathrm{\\text{'}}+{n}^{\\mathrm{2}}x+g\\left(x\\left(t-\\tau \\right)\\right)=p\\left(t\\right),$ where $f,g,p:\\mathrm{R}\\to \\mathrm{R}$ are continuous and $p$ is $\\mathrm{2}\\pi $ -periodic, $\\mathrm{0}\\le \\tau

  8. Is Absence of Evidence of UHPM Evidence of Absence: Did Conditions on Earth Before the Ediacaran Period Allow Formation of UHP Rocks but Only Rarely Their Exhumation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, M.

    2008-12-01

    UHPM provides petrologic evidence of transport of continental lithosphere to asthenospheric depth and return of some of these materials to crustal depth. The rock record registers UHPM since the Ediacaran Period, and studies of inclusion assemblages in zircon have increased the evidence of UHPM in Phanerozoic orogens and enabled an assessment of the real estate involved. Plots of apparent thermal gradient vs. age of metamorphism and P vs. age of metamorphism reveal two dramatic changes in inferred thermal environment and inferred depth of metamorphism from which continental lithosphere has been recovered during Earth evolution. First, from the Mesoarchean Era to the Neoproterozoic Era, sutures in subduction-to- collision orogens are marked by eclogite and high-pressure granulite metamorphism (characterized by apparent thermal gradients of 750-350 C/GPa). The P of metamorphism in sutures jumped from the Eoarchean-Paleoarchean up to 2 GPa during the Paleoproterozoic. Second, from the Cryogenian- Ediacaran to the present, many sutures in subduction-to-collision orogens, and sometimes intracratonic sutures in the overriding plate, are marked by UHPM (characterized by apparent thermal gradients of 2.7GPa. Given this pattern of secular change to colder apparent thermal gradients in sutures, the recent discovery of diamonds in zircons of crustal paragenesis in Neoarchean sedimentary rocks is surprising. Maybe UHPM has been possible since the Neoarchean but the evidence was rarely exhumed or if exhumed maybe the evidence was rarely preserved? The Appalachian/Caledonian-Variscide-Altaid and the Cimmerian-Himalayan-Alpine orogenic systems were formed by successive closure of short-lived oceans by transfer and suturing of ribbon-continent terranes derived from the Gondwanan side. Subduction of young ocean lithosphere followed by choking of the subduction channel by arc or terrane collision limited transport of water to the mantle wedge, and suppressed development of small

  9. Abnormal Stock Market Returns to Announcements of M&A Banking Deals in Greece 1996-2013

    OpenAIRE

    Anastasios KARAMANOS; George BAKATSELOS; Roena AGOLLI

    2015-01-01

    This study has undertaken a comprehensive empirical analysis of the wealth effects of bank M&As in Greece over the period 1996-2013. The purpose is to measure the performance of merger participants over the acquisition period as a deviation of how shareholders’ actual returns differ from expected returns conditional on the particular process of M&A. The authors develop a conceptual framework that integrates theoretical perspectives from economics, finance, organization theory, strateg...

  10. Sensitivities of crop models to extreme weather conditions during flowering period demonstrated for maize and winter wheat in Austria

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eitzinger, J; Thaler, S; Schmid, E

    2013-01-01

    the start of flowering. Two locations in Austria, representing different agro-climatic zones and soil conditions, were included in the simulations over 2 years, 2003 and 2004, exhibiting contrasting weather conditions. In addition, soil management was modified at both sites by following either ploughing...

  11. The 'successful' return

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olwig, Karen Fog

    2012-01-01

    Research on female migrant caregivers has tended to focus upon the emotional and social problems they encounter working abroad, given women’s traditional role as caregivers for their own families. This article analyses how Caribbean women who have returned after a period abroad as domestic workers...... inscribe their migration experiences within the gendered narrative of the good relative who migrates to help the family left behind and therefore deserves social recognition in the community of origin. It argues that this narrative allows the women to both affirm and reinterpret local family and gender...... roles within the context of migration. This analysis points to the close connection between narrative structures, accounts of migration experiences, and self-presentations and suggests that narratives about family and gender roles not only reflect people’s lives, but are also a malleable resource...

  12. Stock returns and foreign investment in Brazil

    OpenAIRE

    Reis, Luciana; Meurer, Roberto; Da Silva, Sergio

    2008-01-01

    We examine the relationship between stock returns and foreign investment in Brazil, and find that the inflows of foreign investment boosted the returns from 1995 to 2005. There was a strong contemporaneous correlation, although not Granger-causality. Foreign investment along with the exchange rate, the influence of the world stock markets, and country risk can explain 73 percent of the changes that occurred in the stock returns over the period. We also find that positive feedback trading play...

  13. Numerical doubly-periodic solution of the (2+1)-dimensional Boussinesq equation with initial conditions by the variational iteration method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Inc, Mustafa

    2007-01-01

    In this Letter, a scheme is developed to study numerical doubly-periodic solutions of the (2+1)-dimensional Boussinesq equation with initial condition by the variational iteration method. As a result, the approximate and exact doubly-periodic solutions are obtained. For different modulus m, comparison between the approximate solution and the exact solution is made graphically, revealing that the variational iteration method is a powerful and effective tool to non-linear problems

  14. Relationship between accumulated heat stress during the dry period, body condition score, and reproduction parameters of Holstein cows in tropical conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Avendaño-Reyes, Leonel; Fuquay, John W; Moore, Reuben B; Liu, Zhanglin; Clark, Bruce L; Vierhout, C

    2010-02-01

    To estimate the relationship between heat stress during the last 60 days prepartum, body condition score and certain reproductive traits in the subsequent lactation of Holstein cows, 564 multiparous cows and 290 primiparous cows from four dairy herds were used in a hot, humid region. Maximum prepartum degree days were estimated to quantify the degree of heat stress. Multiple regressions analyses and logistic regression analysis were performed to determine the effect of prepartum heat stress and body condition change on reproductive parameters, which were obtained from DHIA forms at the end of the lactation. Multiparous and primiparous cows which gained body condition score from calving to 60 d postpartum exhibited 28 and 27 fewer days open (P 0.05) of heat stress measurement on days open or services per conception in either multiparous or primiparous cows. During hotter months of calving, multiparous cows showed higher services per conception and primiparous cows showed higher days open and services per conception (P score. Multiparous cows with high body condition score at calving were 1.47 times more likely to present a very difficult calving than cows that calved in October (P reproductive performance was not affected by cumulative prepartum heat stress although it was associated with very difficult calving score.

  15. Don't fear 'fear conditioning': Methodological considerations for the design and analysis of studies on human fear acquisition, extinction, and return of fear.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lonsdorf, Tina B; Menz, Mareike M; Andreatta, Marta; Fullana, Miguel A; Golkar, Armita; Haaker, Jan; Heitland, Ivo; Hermann, Andrea; Kuhn, Manuel; Kruse, Onno; Meir Drexler, Shira; Meulders, Ann; Nees, Frauke; Pittig, Andre; Richter, Jan; Römer, Sonja; Shiban, Youssef; Schmitz, Anja; Straube, Benjamin; Vervliet, Bram; Wendt, Julia; Baas, Johanna M P; Merz, Christian J

    2017-06-01

    The so-called 'replicability crisis' has sparked methodological discussions in many areas of science in general, and in psychology in particular. This has led to recent endeavours to promote the transparency, rigour, and ultimately, replicability of research. Originating from this zeitgeist, the challenge to discuss critical issues on terminology, design, methods, and analysis considerations in fear conditioning research is taken up by this work, which involved representatives from fourteen of the major human fear conditioning laboratories in Europe. This compendium is intended to provide a basis for the development of a common procedural and terminology framework for the field of human fear conditioning. Whenever possible, we give general recommendations. When this is not feasible, we provide evidence-based guidance for methodological decisions on study design, outcome measures, and analyses. Importantly, this work is also intended to raise awareness and initiate discussions on crucial questions with respect to data collection, processing, statistical analyses, the impact of subtle procedural changes, and data reporting specifically tailored to the research on fear conditioning. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  16. Performance of the Fast Beam Conditions Monitor BCM1F of CMS in the first running periods of LHC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schmidt, R S; Hempel, M; Lohmann, W; Bell, A J; Hall-Wilton, R; Mueller, S; Ryjov, V; Stickland, D; Castro, E; Lange, W; Walsh, R

    2011-01-01

    The Beam Conditions and Radiation Monitoring System, BRM, is implemented in CMS to protect the detector and provide an interface to the LHC. Seven sub-systems monitor beam conditions and the radiation level inside the detector on different time scales. They detect adverse beam conditions, facilitate beam tuning close to CMS, and measure the doses accumulated in different detector components. Data are taken and analysed independently of the CMS data acquisition, displayed in the control room, and provide inputs to the trigger system and the LHC operators. In case of beam conditions dangerous to the CMS detector, a beam abort is induced. The Fast Beam Conditions Monitor, BCM1F, is a flux counter close to the beam pipe inside the tracker volume. It uses single-crystal CVD diamond sensors, radiation-hard FE electronics, and optical signal transmission to measure the beam halo as well as collision products bunch by bunch. The system has been operational during the initiatory runs of LHC in September 2008. It works reliably since the restart in 2009 and is invaluable to CMS for everyday LHC operation. A characterisation of the system on the basis of data collected during LHC operation is presented.

  17. Performance of the fast beam conditions monitor BCM1F of CMS in the first running periods of LHC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schmidt, R.S.; Bell, A.J.; Castro, E.

    2010-12-01

    The Beam Conditions and Radiation Monitoring System, BRM, is implemented in CMS to protect the detector and provide an interface to the LHC. Seven sub-systems monitor beam conditions and the radiation level inside the detector on different time scales. They detect adverse beam conditions, facilitate beam tuning close to CMS, and measure the doses accumulated in different detector components. Data are taken and analysed independently of the CMS data acquisition, displayed in the control room, and provide inputs to the trigger system and the LHC operators. In case of beam conditions dangerous to the CMS detector, a beam abort is induced. The Fast Beam Conditions Monitor, BCM1F, is a flux counter close to the beam pipe inside the tracker volume. It uses single-crystal CVD diamond sensors, radiation-hard FE electronics, and optical signal transmission to measure the beam halo as well as collision products bunch by bunch. The system has been operational during the initiatory runs of LHC in September 2008. It works reliably since the restart in 2009 and is invaluable to CMS for everyday LHC operation. A characterisation of the system on the basis of data collected during LHC operation is presented. (orig.)

  18. Time-bound product returns and optimal order quantities for mass merchandisers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Min-Chun; Goh, Mark

    2012-01-01

    The return guidelines for a mass merchandiser usually entail a grace period, a markdown on the original price and the condition of the returned items. This research utilises eight scenarios formed from the variation of possible return guidelines to model the cost functions of single-product categories for a typical mass merchandiser. Models for the eight scenarios are developed and solved with the objective of maximising the expected profit so as to obtain closed form solutions for the associated optimal order quantity. An illustrative example and sensitivity analysis are provided to demonstrate the applicability of the model. Our results show that merchandisers who allow for returns within a time window, albeit with a penalty cost imposed and the returned products being recoverable, should plan for larger order amounts as such products do not affect the business. Similarly, the merchandisers who allow for returns beyond a grace period and without any penalty charges, but where the returned products are irrecoverable, should manage their stocks in this category more judiciously by ordering as little as possible so as to limit the number of returns and carefully consider the effects of their customer satisfaction-guaranteed policies, if any.

  19. Time-critical database condition data handling in the CMS experiment during the first data taking period

    CERN Document Server

    Di Guida, Salvatore

    2011-01-01

    Automatic, synchronous and of course reliable population of the condition databases is critical for the correct operation of the online selection as well as of the offline reconstruction and analysis of data. In this complex infrastructure, monitoring and fast detection of errors is a very challenging task. To recover the system and to put it in a safe state requires spotting a faulty situation within strict time constraints. We will describe here the system put in place in the CMS experiment to automate the processes that populate centrally the Condition Databases and make condition data promptly available both online for the high-level trigger and offline for reconstruction. The data are automatically collected using centralized jobs or are ``dropped'' by the users in dedicate services (offline and online drop-box), which synchronize them and take care of writing them into the online database. Then they are automatically streamed to the offline database, and thus are immediately acce...

  20. Level and period of realimentation to assess improvement in body condition and carcass quality in cull ewes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhatt, Randhir Singh; Soren, Nira Manik; Sahoo, Artabandhu; Karim, Shaikh Abdul

    2013-01-01

    Improvement in body condition was assessed in 40 cull ewes (>6 years), equally distributed in two groups and realimented with ad libitum roughage (gram straw) and two levels of concentrate feeding, i.e., 2.5 % (T(1)) of live weight (LW) and ad libitum (T(2)). Five representative animals from an initial 45 were slaughtered at the initiation of the study (0 day) and five animals from each treatment at 44, 67, and 90 days of experiment for carcass attributes. Improvement in body condition score (BCS), nutrient utilization, feed efficiency, and carcass traits were assessed at 44, 67, and 90 days. Metabolism trial of 6-day collection of feed, feces, and urine samples was conducted on five representative ewes from each group after 60 days of feeding. The level of concentrate feeding on LW gain and BCS was significant, and the duration of realimentation showed a linear improvement (P body condition of cull ewes for quality mutton production.

  1. Modeling long period swell in Southern California: Practical boundary conditions from buoy observations and global wave model predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crosby, S. C.; O'Reilly, W. C.; Guza, R. T.

    2016-02-01

    Accurate, unbiased, high-resolution (in space and time) nearshore wave predictions are needed to drive models of beach erosion, coastal flooding, and alongshore transport of sediment, biota and pollutants. On highly sheltered shorelines, wave predictions are sensitive to the directions of onshore propagating waves, and nearshore model prediction error is often dominated by uncertainty in offshore boundary conditions. Offshore islands and shoals, and coastline curvature, create complex sheltering patterns over the 250km span of southern California (SC) shoreline. Here, regional wave model skill in SC was compared for different offshore boundary conditions created using offshore buoy observations and global wave model hindcasts (National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration Wave Watch 3, WW3). Spectral ray-tracing methods were used to transform incident offshore swell (0.04-0.09Hz) energy at high directional resolution (1-deg). Model skill is assessed for predictions (wave height, direction, and alongshore radiation stress) at 16 nearshore buoy sites between 2000 and 2009. Model skill using buoy-derived boundary conditions is higher than with WW3-derived boundary conditions. Buoy-driven nearshore model results are similar with various assumptions about the true offshore directional distribution (maximum entropy, Bayesian direct, and 2nd derivative smoothness). Two methods combining offshore buoy observations with WW3 predictions in the offshore boundary condition did not improve nearshore skill above buoy-only methods. A case example at Oceanside harbor shows strong sensitivity of alongshore sediment transport predictions to different offshore boundary conditions. Despite this uncertainty in alongshore transport magnitude, alongshore gradients in transport (e.g. the location of model accretion and erosion zones) are determined by the local bathymetry, and are similar for all predictions.

  2. Effect of Number of Spermatozoa, Oviduct Condition and Timing of Artificial Insemination on Fertility and Fertile Period of Kampung Rooster Spermatozoa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    DM Saleh

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract. This study was carried out to determine the optimum fertility and fertile period using the number of spermatozoa, oviduct condition and timing of insemination of native rooster spermatozoa. Ninety six commercial Isa brown pullets and nine kampung roosters were used in this study in a 3×2×2 factorial arrangement with one bird in a cage constituting a unit. The factor levels were the number of spermatozoa (50, 100 and 150 million/0.1 ml, oviduct condition (hard-shelled eggs and free hard-shelled eggs, and timing of artificial insemination (in the morning, at 7 AM and in the afternoon, at 4 PM.  The results showed that among the treatments there was no significant interaction to fertility and fertile period. Insemination with 50 million sperm number seemed to be the same result with the other 2 treatments. Oviduct condition had a highly significant difference on fertility and fertile period percentage, and timing of insemination did not differ between morning and afternoon.  In conclusion, the only oviduct condition (free hard-shelled eggs was the best results for insemination in terms of fertility and fertile period of native roosters.  It is recommended that for the maximum fertility and fertile period, hens should be inseminated with 50 million spermatozoa, free of hard-shelled eggs and insemination performed in the morning or in the afternoon.   Keywords: timing of artificial insemination, fertility, fertile period, semen dose, oviduct condition Animal Production 14(1:32-36, January 2012

  3. Predictability of Stock Returns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmet Sekreter

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Predictability of stock returns has been shown by empirical studies over time. This article collects the most important theories on forecasting stock returns and investigates the factors that affecting behavior of the stocks’ prices and the market as a whole. Estimation of the factors and the way of estimation are the key issues of predictability of stock returns.

  4. Sensitivities of crop models to extreme weather conditions during flowering period demonstrated for maize and winter wheat in Austria

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Eitzinger, Josef; Thaler, S.; Schmid, E.; Strauss, F.; Ferrise, R.; Moriondo, M.; Bindi, M.; Palosuo, T.; Rötter, R.; Kersebaum, K. C.; Olesen, J. E.; Patil, R. H.; Saylan, L.; Çaldag, B.; Caylak, O.

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 151, č. 6 (2013), s. 813-835 ISSN 0021-8596 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) ED1.1.00/02.0073 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : crop models * weather conditions * winter wheat * Austria Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 2.891, year: 2013

  5. Mathematical Models of Absorption of Poorly Soluble Gas in Co-Current Packed Bed Column under Periodically Changing Conditions

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Vychodilová, Hana; Jiřičný, Vladimír; Staněk, Vladimír

    2004-01-01

    Roč. 18, č. 2 (2004), s. 117-127 ISSN 0352-9568 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA104/03/1558 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z4072921 Keywords : trickle bed * oxygen absorption * transient conditions Subject RIV: CI - Industrial Chemistry, Chemical Engineering Impact factor: 0.328, year: 2004

  6. ANALYSING TURKISH INDIVIDUAL PENSION SYSTEM FEES AND RETURNS

    OpenAIRE

    Peker, Ibrahim

    2018-01-01

    This study aims at categorizing, computing and analyzing fees and costs in Turkish Individual Pension System. To this end, net real returns after all costs were computed and these returns were compared with the disclosed fees and returns. Generally in practice, only fund management fees are taken into consideration for calculating net returns and with this method net annual average (geometric) return of the system is calculated as 2.01% for the 2008-2014 period. However, the results of this s...

  7. Changed cerebral microcirculation in a long-term period following irradiation under the conditions of gammaphos protection

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Plotnikova, E D; Levitman, M Kh; Shaposhnikova, V V; Ehjdus, L Kh [AN SSSR, Pushchino-na-Oke. Inst. Biologicheskoj Fiziki

    1983-07-01

    A study was made of the influence of prophylactic administration of gammaphos (300 mg/kg) on radiation alterations in the system of cerebral microcirculation of rats in a long-term period following local irradiation of doses of 40-60 Gy. It has been shown that the number of animals with severe vascular injuries and the degree of these injuries lessen. Gammaphos administration weakens a decrease in the mean number of vessels and an increase in their average size caused by irradiation.

  8. Adolescents alcohol-use and economic conditions: a multilevel analysis of data from a period with big economic changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Svensson, Mikael; Hagquist, Curt

    2010-12-01

    This paper examines how the unemployment rate is related to adolescent alcohol use and experience of binge drinking during a time period characterized by big societal changes. The paper uses repeated cross-sectional adolescent survey data from a Swedish region, collected in 1988, 1991, 1995, 1998, 2002 and 2005, and merges this with data on local unemployment rates for the same time periods. Individual level frequency of alcohol use as well as experience of binge drinking is connected to local level unemployment rate to estimate the relationship using multilevel modeling. The model includes municipality effects controlling for time-invariant differences between municipalities as well as year fixed effects controlling for municipality-invariant changes over time in alcohol use. The results show that the unemployment rate is negatively associated with adolescents' alcohol use and the experience of binge drinking. When the unemployment rate increases, more adolescents do not drink at all. Regular drinking (twice per month or more) is, on the other hand, unrelated to the unemployment rate. Examining gender-differences in the relationship, it is shown that the results are driven by behavior in girls, whereas drinking among boys does not show any significant relationship with changes in the unemployment rate.

  9. Durations of immature stage development period of Nasonia vitripennis (Walker) (Hymenoptera: Pteromalidae) under laboratory conditions: implications for forensic entomology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mello, Renata da Silva; Aguiar-Coelho, Valéria M

    2009-01-01

    Some microhymenopterans are parasitoids of flies of forensic importance. Their parasitic habit can alter the duration of post-embryonic development of these flies, altering the postmortem interval. In order to analyze possible alterations occurring during the immature development period of Nasonia vitripennis, this study tested different quantitative associations between female parasitoids and pupae of Chrysomya megacephala, which were defined by: (a) one pupa was exposed to different numbers of female parasitoids (1:1, 1:3, 1:5, 1:7, 1:9, 1:11) and (b) different numbers of pupae were exposed to one female parasitoid (1:1, 2:1, 3:1, 4:1, 5:1). Analysis of variance (5% significance level) and Tukey's honestly significant difference tests were used for statistical analysis. There was a tendency of prolongation of the duration of parasitoid development, both by increasing the number of female parasitoids and by increasing the number of hosts in the associations. By increasing the number of female parasitoids per host, there is a possibility of increasing the occurrence of superparasitism, leading to competition for food source, then prolonging the duration of the immature development period. Increasing the number of hosts in the associations, females may distribute their postures among the available pupae and can cause reduction of the number of eggs per host. Since these insects are gregarious, the reduction of the number of eggs may delay the offspring development.

  10. Cultivation period, lighting conditions and BAP concentrations on in vitro induction shoots of Dendrobium phalaenopsis Deang Suree

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yara Brito Chaim Jardim Rosa

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The technique of in vitro micropropagation allows the production of large amounts of plants. However, some aspects of the orchid’s in vitro micropropagation are still poorly studied. This study analyzed the lighting conditions, time of cultivation and BAP concentrations on in vitro budburst of Dendrobium phalaenopsis Deang Suree. Therefore, a quantitative analysis of biometric parameters of plants grown during 90 and 180 days on ½ MS medium under different lighting conditions (18.90 mol m-2 s-1, 14.85 mol m-2 s-1, 9.45 mol m-2 s-1 and concentrations of BAP (0; 0.5; 1; 1.5; 2; 2.5 e 3 mg L-1. The best results of budburst were obtained during 180 days, under white fluorescent light (18.90 mol m-2 s-1 and using 1.5±0.1 mg L-1 of BAP.

  11. Three-ring stable oxygen isotope ratios indicating cooler and wetter climate conditions and high flood frequency periods in the Red River Basin, Manitoba, Canada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buhay, W.M.; Harms, P.; Marcino, D.; Mayer, B.; St. George, S.; Nielsen, E.

    2002-01-01

    In the Red River region of southern Manitoba, Canada, the frequency of flood events tends to increase during cooler and wetter climate conditions. Predictably, recorded Red River flood stages are primarily a result of meteorological conditions which produce an increase runoff due to excess snowmelt and heavy spring precipitation. Winter skewed precipitation periods corresponding to cooler and wetter conditions in the Red River Basin may provide traceable oxygen isotope signals in hydrologically sensitive trees occupying the basin. To test this hypothesis, three overlapping oak tree-ring chronologies (KPO1: 1990 to 1795; STVO1: 1985 to 1797; STVO2: 1990 to 1845) were annually sampled and processed for their cellulose

  12. Effects of periodic boundary conditions on equilibrium properties of computer simulated fluids. II. Application to simple liquids

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pratt, L.R.; Haan, S.W.

    1981-01-01

    The theory of the previous paper is used to predict anomalous size effects observed for computer simulated liquid Ar. The theoretical results for the boundary condition induced anisotropy of two-particle correlations are found to be large, and in excellent agreement with the computer experimental data of Mandell for densities near the Ar triple point density. The agreement is less good at higher densities

  13. Nitrogen fixation in peanut nodules during dark periods and detopped conditions with special reference to lipid bodies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siddique, A.M.; Bal, A.K.

    1991-01-01

    The peanut plant (Arachis hypogaea L.), unlike other known legumes, can sustain nitrogen fixation when prolonged periods of darkness or detopping curtail the supply of photosynthate to the nodule. This ability to withstand photosynthate stress is attributed to the presence of lipid bodies in infected nodule cells. In both dark-treated and detopped plants, the lipid bodies show a gradual decrease in numbers, suggesting their utilization as a source of energy and carbon for nitrogen fixation. Lipolytic activity can be localized in the lipid bodies, and the existence of β-oxidation pathway and glyoxylate cycle is shown by the release of 14 CO 2 from 14 C lineoleoyl coenzyme A by the nodule homogenate

  14. The effects of extended nap periods on cognitive, physiological and subjective responses under simulated night shift conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davy, Jonathan; Göbel, Matthias

    2018-02-01

    Extended nap opportunities have been effective in maintaining alertness in the context of extended night shifts (+12 h). However, there is limited evidence of their efficacy during 8-h shifts. Thus, this study explored the effects of extended naps on cognitive, physiological and perceptual responses during four simulated, 8-h night shifts. In a laboratory setting, 32 participants were allocated to one of three conditions. All participants completed four consecutive, 8-h night shifts, with the arrangements differing by condition. The fixed night condition worked from 22h00 to 06h00, while the nap early group worked from 20h00 to 08h00 and napped between 00h00 and 03h20. The nap late group worked from 00h00 to 12h00 and napped between 04h00 and 07h20. Nap length was limited to 3 hours and 20 minutes. Participants performed a simple beading task during each shift, while also completing six to eight test batteries roughly every 2 h. During each shift, six test batteries were completed, in which the following measures were taken. Performance indicators included beading output, eye accommodation time, choice reaction time, visual vigilance, simple reaction time, processing speed and object recognition, working memory, motor response time and tracking performance. Physiological measures included heart rate and tympanic temperature, whereas subjective sleepiness and reported sleep length and quality while outside the laboratory constituted the self reported measures. Both naps reduced subjective sleepiness but did not alter the circadian and homeostatic-related changes in cognitive and physiological measures, relative to the fixed night condition. Additionally, there was evidence of sleep inertia following each nap, which resulted in transient reductions in certain perceptual cognitive performance measures. The present study suggested that there were some benefits associated with including an extended nap during 8-h night shifts. However, the effects of sleep inertia

  15. Are meteorological conditions favoring hail precipitation change in Southern Europe? Analysis of the period 1948-2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanchez, J. L.; Merino, A.; Melcón, P.; García-Ortega, E.; Fernández-González, S.; Berthet, C.; Dessens, J.

    2017-12-01

    In the context of a warming climate, one of the variables currently under investigation is related to the detection of possible changes in hail precipitation. In this work, we analyze hail frequencies in one of the most affected areas by this phenomenon in Europe, southern France. Here, an extensive hail detection network has been in operation since 1988. In general, the detection of hailfall is very uncertain. To overcome the constraints of scarcity and poor standardization of hail detection and monitoring systems, some relationships between hailstorm occurrence and synoptic, mesoscale or thermodynamic atmospheric characteristics have been proposed in different areas. Therefore, we analyzed meteorological fields at synoptic scale that are related to the formation of hailstorms in the study area, i.e., geopotential height at 500 hPa, sea level pressure, and lapse-rate between 850 and 500 hPa. These fields describe the state of the atmosphere at low and mid levels, and facilitate the evaluation of thermal and dynamic instability. Using the Mann-Kendall test and Sen estimator, we examined trends in the three fields during the period 1948-2015 and their spatial patterns, revealing an evolution toward synoptic environments that favor hail precipitation in the Mediterranean region.

  16. Modelling of a stirling cryocooler regenerator under steady and steady - periodic flow conditions using a correlation based method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kishor Kumar, V. V.; Kuzhiveli, B. T.

    2017-12-01

    The performance of a Stirling cryocooler depends on the thermal and hydrodynamic properties of the regenerator in the system. CFD modelling is the best technique to design and predict the performance of a Stirling cooler. The accuracy of the simulation results depend on the hydrodynamic and thermal transport parameters used as the closure relations for the volume averaged governing equations. A methodology has been developed to quantify the viscous and inertial resistance terms required for modelling the regenerator as a porous medium in Fluent. Using these terms, the steady and steady - periodic flow of helium through regenerator was modelled and simulated. Comparison of the predicted and experimental pressure drop reveals the good predictive power of the correlation based method. For oscillatory flow, the simulation could predict the exit pressure amplitude and the phase difference accurately. Therefore the method was extended to obtain the Darcy permeability and Forchheimer’s inertial coefficient of other wire mesh matrices applicable to Stirling coolers. Simulation of regenerator using these parameters will help to better understand the thermal and hydrodynamic interactions between working fluid and the regenerator material, and pave the way to contrive high performance, ultra-compact free displacers used in miniature Stirling cryocoolers in the future.

  17. Air-side performance evaluation of three types of heat exchangers in dry, wet and periodic frosting conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Ping [Zhejiang Vocational College of Commerce, Hangzhou, Binwen Road 470 (China); Department of Mechanical Science and Engineering University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign 1206 West Green Street, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States); Hrnjak, P.S. [Department of Mechanical Science and Engineering University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign 1206 West Green Street, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States)

    2009-08-15

    The performances of three types of heat exchangers that use the louver fin geometry: (1) parallel flow parallel fin with extruded flat tubes heat exchanger (PF{sup 2}), (2) parallel flow serpentine fin with extruded flat tubes heat exchanger (PFSF) and (3) round tube wave plate fin heat exchanger (RTPF) have been experimentally studied under dry, wet and frost conditions and results are presented. The parameters quantified include air-side pressure drop, water retention on the surface of the heat exchanger, capacity and overall heat transfer coefficient for air face velocity 0.9, 2 and 3 m/s, air humidity 70% and 80% and different orientations. The performances of three types of heat exchanger are compared and the results obtained are presented. The condensate drainage behavior of the air-side surface of these three heat exchanger types was studied using both the dip testing method and wind tunnel experiment. (author)

  18. Active screening and surveillance in the United Kingdom for Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus in returning travellers and pilgrims from the Middle East: a prospective descriptive study for the period 2013–2015

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sowsan F. Atabani

    2016-06-01

    Conclusions: Respiratory tract infections in travellers/pilgrims returning to the UK from the Middle East are mainly due to rhinoviruses, influenza A, and influenza B. Whilst MERS-CoV was not detected in the 202 patients studied, heightened awareness of the possibility of MERS-CoV and continuous proactive surveillance are essential to rapidly identify cases of MERS-CoV and other seasonal respiratory tract viruses such as avian influenza, in patients presenting to hospital. Early identification and isolation may prevent outbreaks in nosocomial settings.

  19. Back to the green jewel. After a period of using fossil fuels, Costa Rica is returning to renewable energy sources; Zurueck zum gruenen Juwel. Nach einem Ausflug zu den fossilen Brennstoffen kehrt Costa Rica zurueck zu den erneuerbaren Energien

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bosworth, Melissa

    2010-07-15

    For more than two decades now, Costa Rica has been a Mecca for eco-tourists. Deep rainforests, empty beeches and an incredible variety of species have made the country into one of the forerunners of sustainability. This picture was marred by the fact that fossil fuels were getting more attention by the government recently. Now, however, Costa Rica is returning to renewable energy sources which had already supplied 100 percent of the country's total power. The government is even considering reimbursement tariffs for solar power. (orig.)

  20. Conditional CAPM and an Application on the ISE

    OpenAIRE

    Yalcin Karatepe; Elif Karaaslan; Fazil Gokgoz

    2002-01-01

    In the empirical studies carried out on standard CAPM, widely used in finance literature, it has been argued that static CAPM could not entirely explain the portfolio returns. One of the assumptions for one period application is that the beta coefficients of assets are assumed to be constant over time. However, in a dynamic world the expected returns and betas deviate over time. In this study, returns of ISE-30 securities have been estimated by employing conditional CAPM; it has been found th...

  1. Returning to work after disability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quinn, P Roger

    2002-06-01

    After a workplace injury or disability, there is a period of hardship and adjustment for the injured party as well as all stakeholders in the workers' compensation process. Ultimately, however, return to work is considered. The author reviews this often challenging exercise from the Canadian perspective and stresses the need for timely intervention, honest communication, the coordination of information and resources--and the need for flexibility. A case study on low back pain is included.

  2. Comparison of working conditions and prevalence of musculoskeletal symptoms among dairy farmers in southern Sweden over a 25-year period

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefan ePinzke

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Working conditions and the prevalence of perceived musculoskeletal symptoms (MSSs among dairy farmers in 2013 were monitored by repeating a mail survey of dairy workers in Scania, southern Sweden, using the same method for collecting data on MSSs and working conditions employed in previous surveys conducted in 1988 and 2002.All dairy enterprises in Scania (total 419 were sent two copies of a questionnaire. One or more responses were received from 232 enterprises (55.4%, of which those from 247 dairy farmers (75% men, 25% women in 199 enterprises are included in this study.The farmers had increased their weekly working hours in 2013 compared with 2002 (males ¯x = 43.9, 40.7; females ¯x = 37.9, 33.9. Each male milked on average 30 cows in 1988, 44 cows in 2002, and 86 cows in 2013. The corresponding numbers milked by female farmers were 29, 60, and 102, respectively. In 1988, almost all farmers used tethered systems, while in 2013 54.4% of male and 66.1% of female farmers instead worked with loose-housing systems. Of the farmers who used loose-housing systems, 50.7% had a robotic milking system.In 2013, 79.0% of male and 88.5% of female farmers reported MSSs on some occasion, especially in the lower back, shoulders, and knees for men and in the shoulders, lower back, and wrists/hands for women. However, there was no statistical change compared with the frequency of MSSs in 2002.In 2013, there was a tendency for younger dairy farmers (≤35 years to report MSSs, especially in the shoulders, elbows, lower back, and feet, more frequently than younger farmers in 2002.The males who worked with robot milking systems in 2013 indicated less discomfort in the shoulders than men who worked with other systems. The corresponding females indicated fewer problems in the lower back in 2013.Various aspects of milking system design and technology have been improved to reduce the workload and prevent MSSs in dairy farmers. Nevertheless, more improvements are

  3. Risk-return of Belgian SRI funds

    OpenAIRE

    Van Liedekerke, Luc; De Moor, Lieven; Vanwalleghem, Dieter

    2007-01-01

    We analyse the risk-return profile of Belgian SRI funds versus conventional investment funds. We apply a four-factor conditional Carhart model to establish whether there are significant differences in risk-return profile between an SRI portfolio and a conventional portfolio and test for learning effects in SRI funds. We show that there is no difference in risk-return profile between SRI and conventional funds. If return is not the problem, then what is it that limits the development of an SRI...

  4. Working conditions, health and productivity among dentists in Swedish public dental care - a prospective study during a 5-year period of rationalisation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rolander, B.; Jonker, D.; Winkel, Jørgen

    2013-01-01

    ' working conditions, health and productivity during a 5-year period. In 2003 and 2008, 65 dentists responded to questionnaires measuring work conditions and health. Treatment times for patients and productivity were tracked in electronic registers. Paired t-tests showed that the number of treated adult...... patients per dentist increased, and perceived physical working conditions improved while perceived work control and leadership deteriorated. Structural equation modelling showed that physical factors were important for health and productivity. When assessing risks in the work environment, there is a need...... to understand the interaction of effects on working conditions and health due to rationalisations so as to increase the sustainability of production systems. Practioner Summary: Dentistry in Sweden has undergone considerable change. Questionnaire surveys with dentists, undertaken in 2003 and 2008, found...

  5. Nondestructive examination of solid steam turbine rotors in new condition and after a long period of operation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mayer, K.H.; Heinrich, D.; Prestel, W.

    1990-01-01

    By abandoning the axial center bore the drawbacks of the rotor with a center bore, i.e. double stressing in the boundary region of the bore and exposure of defects at the surface of the bore; an adverse condition from the fracture mechanics aspect were eliminated, thereby resulting in a higher safety potential for the unbored rotor against brittle failure. This increase in safety is readily quantified by the linear-elastic fracture mechanics laws adopted since around 1970 for the evaluation of crack and brittle. For an LP rotor with a fracture toughness of FATT 50 with plus 25 degree C the critical crack size for brittle failure is plotted as a function of the tangential stress and the rotor temperature - at the left for the rotor without a center bore and at the right for the rotor with a center bore. For the present case of a highly-stressed LP rotor with a cold-start temperature of 40 degree C the critical crack size for the rotor without a center bore is 83 mm whereas for the rotor with a center bore it is only 13.6 mm. The higher safety potential of rotors without a center bore is also readily confirmed by an analysis of publications on turbogenerator rotors which have burst to 71. Of the 23 cases of brittle failures on record since 1910, there has so far only been one incident where a rotor without a center bore has been destroyed by brittle failure. This particular rotor - at a cold start temperature of 15 degree C - had an eccentrically oriented defect, about 60 mm in size, which in the new state of the rotor had clearly been underestimated in its size by ultrasonic examination. The extraordinary size of the defect was established to be due to adverse geometry of the 200 t ingot and an inadequate capacity of the forging press

  6. Predictable return distributions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Thomas Quistgaard

    trace out the entire distribution. A univariate quantile regression model is used to examine stock and bond return distributions individually, while a multivariate model is used to capture their joint distribution. An empirical analysis on US data shows that certain parts of the return distributions......-of-sample analyses show that the relative accuracy of the state variables in predicting future returns varies across the distribution. A portfolio study shows that an investor with power utility can obtain economic gains by applying the empirical return distribution in portfolio decisions instead of imposing...

  7. The structure of occupational health nurses' support for return-to-work to workers with depression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hatanaka, Junko

    2016-07-29

    The present study aimed to explore the structure of occupational health nurses' support for return-to-work to workers with depression. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 10 occupational health nurses who support workers returning to work. Data were analyzed using the Modified Grounded Theory Approach. The qualitatively analyzed data was grouped into 9 categories. The support for return-to-work was divided into 3 periods: (1) the first priority for recovery, (2) preparation for return-to-work, and (3) adaptation to work. There were indirect supports to workers such as "environmental arrangement for medical treatment," "connection," and "support form parties concerned about workers," and direct supports such as "readiness for medical treatment," "overcoming social and psychological problems," and "working life independence. " Direct support was facilitated by "construction of the relationship. " The occupational health nurses' philosophy was to support "profitable return-to-work for both the worker and the employer. " These processes were "support of confidence recovery process " to regain confidence lost through absence from work because of depression and to accomplish a smooth return-to-work. There were problems in each period corresponding to the return-to-work conditions, and occupational health nurses supported the employees in overcoming each problem. Moreover, it was said that cooperation with the parties concerned in the office would greatly influence the success or failure in the return-to-work support, and it was thought that direct supports and indirect supports to employees with respect to adjustment with the parties concerned in the office were necessary. The structure of occupational health nurses' supports was to support the confidence recovery process of workers by indirect and direct support at each period of return-to-work.

  8. Is the Return to the Virtual US Dollar Pegging of East Asian Currencies Correct? : The Impacts of the Yen-Dollar Exchange Rate on the East Asian Currencies in the Post Crisis Period

    OpenAIRE

    金, 炳宣; Byung Sun, Kim; 経済学研究科

    2004-01-01

    This paper studies the evolution of the exchange rate regime on East Asian economies between pre- and post-crisis periods, especially with a focus on the impacts of change in yen-dollar rate, using a regression model based on the work by Frankel and Wei (1994). As a result of the study, the following points are understood. Firstly, a greater diversity in exchange rate regime is seen for the post-crisis period than the pre-crisis period. At one extreme, Hong Kong under a stable dollar peg thro...

  9. Classifying Returns as Extreme

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Charlotte

    2014-01-01

    I consider extreme returns for the stock and bond markets of 14 EU countries using two classification schemes: One, the univariate classification scheme from the previous literature that classifies extreme returns for each market separately, and two, a novel multivariate classification scheme tha...

  10. Operational validation of a multi-period and multi-criteria model conditioning approach for the prediction of rainfall-runoff processes in small forest catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, H.; Kim, S.

    2012-12-01

    Most of hydrologic models have generally been used to describe and represent the spatio-temporal variability of hydrological processes in the watershed scale. Though it is an obvious fact that hydrological responses have the time varying nature, optimal values of model parameters were normally considered as time invariants or constants in most cases. The recent paper of Choi and Beven (2007) presents a multi-period and multi-criteria model conditioning approach. The approach is based on the equifinality thesis within the Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) framework. In their application, the behavioural TOPMODEL parameter sets are determined by several performance measures for global (annual) and short (30-days) periods, clustered using a Fuzzy C-means algorithm, into 15 types representing different hydrological conditions. Their study shows a good performance on the calibration of a rainfall-runoff model in a forest catchment, and also gives strong indications that it is uncommon to find model realizations that were behavioural over all multi-periods and all performance measures, and multi-period model conditioning approach may become new effective tool for predictions of hydrological processes in ungauged catchments. This study is a follow-up study on the Choi and Beven's (2007) model conditioning approach to test how the approach is effective for the prediction of rainfall-runoff responses in ungauged catchments. To achieve this purpose, 6 small forest catchments are selected among the several hydrological experimental catchments operated by Korea Forest Research Institute. In each catchment, long-term hydrological time series data varying from 10 to 30 years were available. The areas of the selected catchments range from 13.6 to 37.8 ha, and all areas are covered by coniferous or broad-leaves forests. The selected catchments locate in the southern coastal area to the northern part of South Korea. The bed rocks are Granite gneiss, Granite or

  11. [Sanitary and epidemiological conditions in the Lodz region during the period of the second Polish Republic in the XIX and XX centuries].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadowska, Jolanta

    2005-01-01

    Throughout history of European agglomerations in the nineteenth and twentieth century the relation between expanding industry and worsening sanitary and epidemiological conditions was seen. These changes, having great impact on public health, were investigated in the present study. Problems related to sanitary and epidemiological conditions in Lodz first emerged during the Russian occupation of Poland in the XIX century. The Russian Governing Council was not overseeing sanitary conditions of the city, and transferred this responsibility to the industrial bourgeoisie of Lodz. In this situation, uncontrolled development of the industry led to serious deterioration in natural environment and increase of risk for acute and chronic infectious diseases. Improvement of the sanitary situation in Lodz commenced in the period of the Second Polish Republic (1918-1939). Sanitary Divisions were created at the Lodz Department of Public Health. Activities in this Department involved, among others, detailed epidemiological examination of potable water, the investigation of manufacturing processes, retail and wholesale groceries, hygienic conditions of public housing. The activity and interventions of Sanitary Divisions contributed substantially to a decrease of incidence of various diseases and improvement of living conditions of the Lodz populations. The improvement of sanitary and epidemiological conditions in Lodz after 1918 was mainly related to the construction of water supply and sewage systems. This led to an approximation of the urban standards of this 500,000 population agglomeration to European standards.

  12. HUBUNGAN RETURN SAHAM DAN INFLASI DI INDONESIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nyoman Triaryati

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The effect of inflation to the stock return research had been held since three decades ago based on GeneralizeFisher’s Hypotheses, but ‘how inflation influenced stock return’ had become a debate until today. In Indonesiamost of the related research used inflation as one of the variables that influenced stock return despite of others inshort period of time. This research investigated the effect of inflation to the stock return in Indonesia within fifteenyears, which was divided into 3 (three periods of time reflecting different economic growth for each of it. Thepurpose of this allotment was to see the consistency how inflation influenced the stock market. Using a secondarydata from monthly inflation and IHSG period 1998 until 2012, included three hundred and sixty observation,simple regression model analyses was applied. This research acknowledged that inflation negatively influencedstock return in a long time period, but it did not exist in the short time period, except when the level of inflationreached 10%. In conclusion, inflation influence on the stock return was not ascertained by how long the investigationwas held but if there was any inflation rate reaching 10% within the period of investigation.

  13. Pengaruh Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR, Beban Operasional Pendapatan Operasional (BOPO, Return on Asset (ROA dan Net Interest Margin (NIM terhadap Financing Deposit Ratio (FRD di PT. BPRS Bhakti Sumekar Sumenep (Periode 2011-2015

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cholida Noerainon

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The Bank is an industry whose business activities relying on public confidence so that the health of banks is done by maintaining the quality so that the bank can meet its obligations and maintain its performance. The purpose bank will be realized if the bank is able to significantly improve their performance optimal. To be able to function properly, the banks should have enough capital, maintaining its asset quality with a good, well-managed and operated by the precautionary principle thus generate enough profit to maintain the continuity of its business and maintain its liquidity so that it can meet its obligations at any time. the purpose of this study is the first: To determine the effect of the Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR, Operating Expenses Towards Operating Income (OEOI, Return on Assets (ROA and Net Interest Margin (NIM simultaneously to the Financial to Deposit Ratio (FDR PT. BPRS Bhakti Sumekar Sumenep. Second: To determine the effect of the Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR, Operating Expenses Towards Operating Income  (OEOI, Return on Assets (ROA and Net Interest Margin (NIM partially on Financial to Deposit Ratio (FDR PT. BPRS Bhakti Sumekar Sumenep. Third: To determine which variables are the most dominant influencing on Financial to Deposit Ratio (FDR at PT. BPRS Bhakti Sumekar Sumenep. In this research uses quantitative methods with the technique of multiple linear regression analysis with the help of SPSS analysis tools, while proving the hypothesis using a calculation T test and F test. The data used is secondary data namely quarterly publication report documentation results. The research results shows that the variables CAR, OEOI, ROA and NIM simultaneously no effect  towards FDR PT. BPRS Bhakti Sumekar Sumenep because Sig. > 0.05 and the value of Fcount

  14. Periodic usage of low-protein methionine-fortified diets in broiler chickens under high ambient temperature conditions: effects on performance, slaughter traits, leukocyte profiles and antibody response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghasemi, Hossein Ali; Ghasemi, Rohollah; Torki, Mehran

    2014-09-01

    This study was performed to evaluate the effects of adding methionine supplements to low-protein diets and subsequent re-feeding with a normal diet on the productive performance, slaughter parameters, leukocyte profiles and antibody response in broiler chickens reared under heat stress conditions. During the whole experimental period (6-49 days), the birds were raised in battery cages located in high ambient temperature in an open-sided housing system. A total of 360 6-day-old male chickens were divided into six treatments in six replicates with ten chicks each. Six isoenergetic diets, with similar total sulfur amino acids levels, were formulated to provide 100 and 100 (control), 85 and 100 (85S), 70 and 100 (70S), 85 and 85 (85SG), 70 and 85 (70S85G), and 70 and 70 % (70SG) of National Research Council recommended levels for crude protein during the starter (6-21 day) and grower (22-42 day) periods, respectively. Subsequently, all groups received a diet containing the same nutrients during the finisher period (43-49 day). The results showed that, under heat stress conditions, average daily gain and feed conversion ratio and performance index from day 6 to 49, breast and thigh yields and antibody titer against Newcastle disease in the birds fed diets 85S, 70S and 85SG were similar to those of birds fed control diet, whereas feeding diets 70S85G and 70SG significantly decreased the values of above-mentioned parameters. Additionally, diets 85S, 70S and 85SG significantly decreased mortality rate and heterophil:lymphocyte ratio compared with the control diet. In conclusion, the results indicate that supplementation of methionine to diets 85S, 70S and 85SG, and then re-feeding with a conventional diet is an effective tool to maintain productive performance and to improve health indices and heat resistance in broilers under high ambient temperature conditions.

  15. Oil Volatility Risk and Expected Stock Returns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christoffersen, Peter; Pan, Xuhui (Nick)

    After the financialization of commodity futures markets in 2004-05 oil volatility has become a strong predictor of returns and volatility of the overall stock market. Furthermore, stocks' exposure to oil volatility risk now drives the cross-section of expected returns. The difference in average...... return between the quintile of stocks with low exposure and high exposure to oil volatility is significant at 0.66% per month, and oil volatility risk carries a significant risk premium of -0.60% per month. In the post-financialization period, oil volatility risk is strongly related with various measures...

  16. A Perishable Inventory Model with Return

    Science.gov (United States)

    Setiawan, S. W.; Lesmono, D.; Limansyah, T.

    2018-04-01

    In this paper, we develop a mathematical model for a perishable inventory with return by assuming deterministic demand and inventory dependent demand. By inventory dependent demand, it means that demand at certain time depends on the available inventory at that time with certain rate. In dealing with perishable items, we should consider deteriorating rate factor that corresponds to the decreasing quality of goods. There are also costs involved in this model such as purchasing, ordering, holding, shortage (backordering) and returning costs. These costs compose the total costs in the model that we want to minimize. In the model we seek for the optimal return time and order quantity. We assume that after some period of time, called return time, perishable items can be returned to the supplier at some returning costs. The supplier will then replace them in the next delivery. Some numerical experiments are given to illustrate our model and sensitivity analysis is performed as well. We found that as the deteriorating rate increases, returning time becomes shorter, the optimal order quantity and total cost increases. When considering the inventory-dependent demand factor, we found that as this factor increases, assuming a certain deteriorating rate, returning time becomes shorter, optimal order quantity becomes larger and the total cost increases.

  17. Identifying the Climatic Conditions in Iraq by Tracking Down Cooling Events in the North Atlantic Ocean in the Period 3000–0 BC

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muslih Khamis D.

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO, monthly averages of precipitation in the Baghdad station, and petrologic tracer proxy data for ocean properties in the North Atlantic (NA have been used in an attempt to identify climatic conditions in Iraq during the study period. The study showed that contemporary changes in precipitation in Iraq are associated with NAO, as a negative relationship is found between them. Moreover, the study found that there is a strong negative correlation between NAOI and SST in NA, where drift ice indices explain between 33–36% of the NAOI variability.

  18. Conditions for bound states in a periodic linear chain, and the spectra of a class of Toeplitz operators in terms of polylogarithm functions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prunele, E de

    2003-01-01

    Conditions for bound states for a periodic linear chain are given within the framework of an exactly solvable non-relativistic quantum-mechanical model in three-dimensional space. These conditions express the strength parameter in terms of the distance between two consecutive centres of the chain, and of the range interaction parameter. This expression can be formulated in terms of polylogarithm functions, and, in some particular cases, in terms of the Riemann zeta function. An interesting mathematical result is that these expressions also correspond to the spectra of Toeplitz complex symmetric operators. The non-trivial zeros of the Riemann zeta function are interpreted as multiple points, at the origin, of the spectra of these Toeplitz operators

  19. Lidar 2009 - All Returns

    Data.gov (United States)

    Kansas Data Access and Support Center — LIDAR-derived binary (.las) files containing classified points of all returns. We have 3 classifications Unclassified, Ground, Low points. The average Ground Sample...

  20. Environmental Conditions in a Carpathian Deep Sea Basin During the Period Preceding Oceanic Anoxic Event 2 - A Case Study from the Skole Nappe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bąk Krzysztof

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Hemipelagic green clayey shales and thin muddy turbidites accumulated in a deep sea environment below the CCD in the Skole Basin, a part of the Outer Carpathian realm, during the Middle Cenomanian. The hemipelagites contain numerous radiolarians, associated with deep-water agglutinated foraminifera. These sediments accumulated under mesotrophic conditions with limited oxygen concentration. Short-term periodic anoxia also occurred during that time. Muddy turbidity currents caused deposition of siliciclastic and biogenic material, including calcareous foramini-fers and numerous sponge spicules. The preservation and diversity of the spicules suggests that they originate from disarticulation of moderately diversified sponge assemblages, which lived predominantly in the neritic-bathyal zone. Analyses of radiolarian ecological groups and pellets reflect the water column properties during the sedimentation of green shales. At that time, surface and also intermediate waters were oxygenated enough and sufficiently rich in nutri-ents to enable plankton production. Numerous, uncompacted pellets with nearly pristine radiolarian skeletons inside show that pelletization was the main factor of radiolarian flux into the deep basin floor. Partly dissolved skeletons indicate that waters in the Skole Basin were undersaturated in relation to silica content. Oxygen content might have been depleted in the deeper part of the water column causing periodic anoxic conditions which prevent rapid bacterial degra-dation of the pellets during their fall to the sea floor.

  1. Remanufacturing lot-sizing under alternative perceptions of returned units' quality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zikopoulos, C.

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available One of the critical parameters in reverse supply chain management is the increased variability of the quality condition of used, returned products. The volatile nature of returns' quality often dictates the establishment of quality assessment procedures and the development of technologies that facilitate the fast, accurate and inexpensive classification of returns. The appropriate degree in which a firm has to allocate resources for acquiring information on the quality of returned units, naturally, depends on the anticipated improvement of recovery activities' profitability. Therefore, the quantification of the savings associated with confronting or resolving quality uncertainty is a necessary input during the determination of the proper recovery procedures' configuration. In the current paper, we study a remanufacturing system in a multi-period setting in which returns' quality information is exploited during remanufacturing planning. However, in the decision-making process, certain aspects of the problem examined, such as the quantification of shortage cost, are overlooked or simplified. The objective is to examine the advisability of acquiring advanced quality information in order to be used during sub-optimal decision-making processes, in comparison with alternative policies which do not take explicitly into account returns' quality information. Moreover, through an extensive numerical analysis we examine the implications of alternative considerations regarding returned units' quality on remanufacturing planning, lead-time and service-levels and evaluate their impact on the overall system operational cost.

  2. Influence of internal and external boundary conditions on the decrement factor and time lag heat flux of building walls in steady periodic regime

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mazzeo, D.; Oliveti, G.; Arcuri, N.

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Dynamic behaviour of building walls subjected to sinusoidal and actual loadings. • The joint action of more temperature and heat flux loadings has been considered. • Dynamic parameters were defined by the internal and external fluctuating heat flux. • Use of the Total Harmonic Distortion to determine the number of harmonics required. • Study of the influence of external and internal loadings on dynamic parameters. - Abstract: The dynamic behaviour of opaque components of the building envelope in steady periodic regime is investigated using parameters defined by the fluctuating heat flux that is transferred in the wall. The use of the heat flux allows for the joint action of the loadings that characterise both the outdoor environment and the indoor air-conditioned environment to be taken into account. The analysis was developed in sinusoidal conditions to determine the frequency response of the wall and in non-sinusoidal conditions to identify the actual dynamic behaviour of the wall. The use of non-dimensional periodic thermal transmittance is proposed for the sinusoidal analysis in order to evaluate the decrement factor and the time lag that the heat flux undergoes in crossing the wall as well as the efficiency of heat storage. In the presence of non-sinusoidal loadings, the identification of the dynamic behaviour of the wall is obtained using several dynamic parameters: the decrement factor in terms of energy, defined as the ratio between the energy in a semi-period entering and exiting the wall; the decrement factor and the time lag in terms of heat flux, considering the maximum peak and the minimum peak. These parameters allow for the identification of how the form of the heat flux trend crossing the wall is modified. The number of harmonics to be considered for an accurate representation of heat fluxes is determined by means of the introduction of the Total Harmonic Distortion (THD), which quantifies the distortion of a non

  3. Weather effects on the returns and volatility of the Shanghai stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Sang Hoon; Jiang, Zhuhua; Lee, Yeonjeong; Yoon, Seong-Min

    2010-01-01

    This study investigates the weather effects on returns as well as volatility in the Shanghai stock market. In order to analyze the influence of the opening of B-share market to domestic investors, it is assumed that domestic investors are more sensitive to the Shanghai local weather than foreign investors. In doing so, extreme weather condition dummies are generated by using the 21-day and 31-day moving average and its standard deviation. Empirical analysis provides two key results regarding weather effects. First, the weather effect exists in the A-share returns, but does not exist in the B-share returns over the whole period. In addition, the post-opening period shows the strong weather effect on B-share returns only, indicating that the market openness to domestic investors results in the weather effect. Second, the weather effect has a strong influence on the volatility of both A- and B-share returns. Similar to the case of returns, the weather effect on volatility is explained by the openness of B-share market.

  4. Comparison and development of advanced dosimetric techniques to be used under extreme climatic conditions. Final report for the period 1 November 1971--28 December 1974

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Madhvanath, U

    1975-08-01

    The post-irradiation fading characteristics of various dosimeters in function of relative humidity of air during storage were tested in specially set up humidity boxes. The temperature and relative humidity were varied between 5 and 35degC and 40-90%, respectively. Fading was 70% and 80% at 2 and 6 days respectively, for Kodak Type 2 film under 28degC and 76% relative humidity. Under these conditions the corresponding values for NTA emulsions were 30% and 80% respectively. Agfa-Gevaert films proved to be less sensitive and gave 20% and 30%, respectively, for the mentioned intervals. When Kodak Type 2 film was sealed in polythene bags, fading was reduced considerably, to appr. 15% in 4 weeks. Alternate storage of exposed films in humid and dry conditions also reduced fading to the same extent. When NTA emulsions were double-sealed with desiccant inside fading was reduced to 10% in 15 days. CaSO/sub 4/:Dy (DRP and Harshaw) showed only 7% fading in 3 months. LiF TLD-100 was more sensitive, 13% in 2 months. Gamma-irradiated Li-borate has faded up to 30% at extreme climatic conditions in 3 months but thermal neutron irradiated Li-borate was resistant against fading for this period.

  5. Investment Strategy Based on Aviation Accidents: Are there abnormal returns?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcos Rosa Costa

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available This article investigates whether an investment strategy based on aviation accidents can generate abnormal returns. We performed an event study considering all the aviation accidents with more than 10 fatalities in the period from 1998 to 2009 and the stock market performance of the respective airlines and aircraft manufacturers in the days after the event. The tests performed were based on the model of Campbell, Lo & MacKinlay (1997 for definition of abnormal returns, by means of linear regression between the firms’ stock returns and the return of a market portfolio used as a benchmark. This enabled projecting the expected future returns of the airlines and aircraft makers, for comparison with the observed returns after each event. The result obtained suggests that an investment strategy based on aviation accidents is feasible because abnormal returns can be obtained in the period immediately following an aviation disaster.

  6. Mothers of children diagnosed with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder: health conditions and medical care utilization in periods before and after birth of the child.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ray, G Thomas; Croen, Lisa A; Habel, Laurel A

    2009-01-01

    Analyzing health conditions and medical utilization of mothers of children with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) can shed light on biologic, environmental, and psychosocial factors relating to ADHD. To examine health conditions, health care utilization, and costs of mothers of children with ADHD in periods before the child was diagnosed. Using automated data from Northern California Kaiser Permanente we identified mothers of children with ADHD, mothers of children without ADHD, and mothers of children with asthma. Mothers' diagnostic clusters, health care utilization, and costs were compared. Mothers of children with ADHD were compared with mothers of children without ADHD and, separately, to mothers of children with asthma. Compared with mothers of children without ADHD, mothers of children with ADHD were more likely to be diagnosed with numerous medical and mental health problems in the 2 years after birth of their child, including depression [odds ratio (OR): 1.88], anxiety neuroses (OR: 1.64), obesity (OR: 1.70), and musculoskeletal symptoms (OR: 1.51). Results were similar for the year before delivery. Mothers of children with ADHD also had higher total health care costs per person in the year before ($1,003) and the 2 years after ($953) the birth of their child. Mothers of children with ADHD also were diagnosed with more health conditions and had higher health care costs than mothers of children with asthma. Our findings suggest that the likelihood of being diagnosed with ADHD is related to maternal conditions and use of health services that precede the child's diagnosis. Future studies are needed to clarify whether this is due to biologic, psychosocial, or environmental factors, or a combination.

  7. Non-Linear Response to Periodic Forcing of Methane-Air Global and Detailed Kinetics in Continuous Stirred Tank Reactors Close to Extinction Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francesco Saverio Marra

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper focus on the behavior of a continuous stirred tank reactor (CSTR subject to perturbations of finite amplitude and frequency. Two main objectives are pursued: to determine the extinction line in the equivalence ratio (φ - residence time (τ plane, fixed the thermodynamic state conditions; and to characterize the response of the chemical system to periodic forcing of the residence time. Transient simulations of combustion of methane with air, using both global single-step and detailed chemical kinetic mechanisms, have been conducted and the corresponding asymptotic solutions analyzed. Results indicate very different dynamical behaviors, posing the issue of a proper choice of the kinetic scheme for the numerical study of combustion oscillations.

  8. Influence of the Periodicity of Sinusoidal Boundary Condition on the Unsteady Mixed Convection within a Square Enclosure Using an Ag–Water Nanofluid

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Azharul Karim

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available A numerical study of the unsteady mixed convection heat transfer characteristics of an Ag–water nanofluid confined within a square shape lid-driven cavity has been carried out. The Galerkin weighted residual of the finite element method has been employed to investigate the effects of the periodicity of sinusoidal boundary condition for a wide range of Grashof numbers (Gr (105 to 107 with the parametric variation of sinusoidal even and odd frequency, N, from 1 to 6 at different instants (for τ = 0.1 and 1. It has been observed that both the Grashof number and the sinusoidal even and odd frequency have a significant influence on the streamlines and isotherms inside the cavity. The heat transfer rate enhanced by 90% from the heated surface as the Grashof number (Gr increased from 105 to 107 at sinusoidal frequency N = 1 and τ = 1.

  9. Conditioning of TJ-II Stellarator during the ECRH Plasmas Period; Acondicionamiento del Stellarator TJ-II durante la Etapa de Plasmas ECRH

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tafalla, D.; Tabares, F.L.

    2001-07-01

    The TJ-II stellarator has been conditioned by glow discharge (GD) during the first campaigns of operation, working only with ECR heating and all metal walls. The application of a He GD during the overnight period before the operation has been required in order to obtain reproducible discharges. However, the density control of the ECRH discharges was not possible because of the He implanted on the wall during GS. An short Ar GD({<=}30 min) applied before the operation allows desorbes part of the implanted He. By applying this procedure (HeGD+ArGD), reproducible and density controlled plasmas have been achieved in H{sub 2} and He. (Author) 20 refs.

  10. ASME N511-19XX, Standard for periodic in-service testing of nuclear air treatment, heating, ventilating and air conditioning systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1997-08-01

    A draft version of the Standard is presented in this document. The Standard covers the requirements for periodic in-service testing of nuclear safety-related air treatment, heating, ventilating, and air conditioning systems in nuclear facilities. The Standard provides a basis for the development of test programs and does not include acceptance criteria, except in cases where the results of one test influence the performance of other tests. The Standard covers general inspection and test requirements, reference values, inspection and test requirements, generic tests, acceptance criteria, in-service test requirements, testing following an abnormal incident, corrective action requirements, and quality assurance. Mandatory appendices provide a visual inspection checklist and four test procedures. Non-mandatory appendices provide additional information and guidance on mounting frame pressure leak test procedure, corrective action, challenge gas substitute selection criteria, and test program development. 8 refs., 10 tabs.

  11. ASME N511-19XX, Standard for periodic in-service testing of nuclear air treatment, heating, ventilating and air conditioning systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1997-01-01

    A draft version of the Standard is presented in this document. The Standard covers the requirements for periodic in-service testing of nuclear safety-related air treatment, heating, ventilating, and air conditioning systems in nuclear facilities. The Standard provides a basis for the development of test programs and does not include acceptance criteria, except in cases where the results of one test influence the performance of other tests. The Standard covers general inspection and test requirements, reference values, inspection and test requirements, generic tests, acceptance criteria, in-service test requirements, testing following an abnormal incident, corrective action requirements, and quality assurance. Mandatory appendices provide a visual inspection checklist and four test procedures. Non-mandatory appendices provide additional information and guidance on mounting frame pressure leak test procedure, corrective action, challenge gas substitute selection criteria, and test program development. 8 refs., 10 tabs

  12. The Reference Return Ratio

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nicolaisen, Jeppe; Faber Frandsen, Tove

    2008-01-01

    The paper introduces a new journal impact measure called The Reference Return Ratio (3R). Unlike the traditional Journal Impact Factor (JIF), which is based on calculations of publications and citations, the new measure is based on calculations of bibliographic investments (references) and returns...... (citations). A comparative study of the two measures shows a strong relationship between the 3R and the JIF. Yet, the 3R appears to correct for citation habits, citation dynamics, and composition of document types - problems that typically are raised against the JIF. In addition, contrary to traditional...

  13. Effect of Reynolds Number and Periodic Unsteady Wake Flow Condition on Boundary Layer Development, Separation, and Intermittency Behavior Along the Suction Surface of a Low Pressure Turbine Blade

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schobeiri, M. T.; Ozturk, B.; Ashpis, David E.

    2007-01-01

    The paper experimentally studies the effects of periodic unsteady wake flow and different Reynolds numbers on boundary layer development, separation and re-attachment along the suction surface of a low pressure turbine blade. The experimental investigations were performed on a large scale, subsonic unsteady turbine cascade research facility at Turbomachinery Performance and Flow Research Laboratory (TPFL) of Texas A&M University. The experiments were carried out at Reynolds numbers of 110,000 and 150,000 (based on suction surface length and exit velocity). One steady and two different unsteady inlet flow conditions with the corresponding passing frequencies, wake velocities, and turbulence intensities were investigated. The reduced frequencies chosen cover the operating range of LP turbines. In addition to the unsteady boundary layer measurements, surface pressure measurements were performed. The inception, onset, and the extent of the separation bubble information collected from the pressure measurements were compared with the hot wire measurements. The results presented in ensemble-averaged, and the contour plot forms help to understand the physics of the separation phenomenon under periodic unsteady wake flow and different Reynolds number. It was found that the suction surface displayed a strong separation bubble for these three different reduced frequencies. For each condition, the locations defining the separation bubble were determined carefully analyzing and examining the pressure and mean velocity profile data. The location of the boundary layer separation was dependent of the Reynolds number. It is observed that starting point of the separation bubble and the re-attachment point move further downstream by increasing Reynolds number from 110,000 to 150,000. Also, the size of the separation bubble is smaller when compared to that for Re=110,000.

  14. ANALYSIS OF THE INCIDENCE AND STRUCTURE OF THE CARDIOVASCULAR SYSTEM DISEASES IN THE FAR NORTH MIGRANTS OVER THE PERIOD OF READAPTATION TO THE NEW CLIMATIC CONDITIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roman Anatolyevich Yaskevich

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of the study. To study the frequency and structure of cardiovascular diseases of the Far North migrants within the period of readaptation to the new climatic conditions. Materials and methods. 145 migrants with stages II–III of arterial hypertension (AH coming from the Far North arrived in the southern regions of central Siberia for permanent residence. The survey included questionnaires, clinical, instrumental, and functional and laboratory research methods. Results. After moving to central Siberia, the hypertensive crisis is more common in people who lived in the Far North for 30 years or more. An increase in the hypertensive crisis frequency was observed in men, rather than women, whereas the stroke incidence in female migrants gets higher, but remains unchanged in male migrants. An increase in the incidence of diseases that complicate the hypertension progression was detected in the migrants during the period following the migration. An increase in the incidence of angina attacks and strokes as well as a trend towards an increase in the incidence of myocardial infarction and heart failure after moving to central Siberia is caused by an increase in the level of neurotic disorders associated with social and economic factors. Conclusion. The identified patterns should be taken into account in the construction of prevention and rehabilitation programs for the Far North migrants along with an obligatory assessment of the adaptive and readaptive capabilities of the organism. Both the follow-up plan and the list of the required measures should be made individually, while taking into account the identified cardiovascular diseases, concomitant pathology and risk factors. Should the migrant be diagnosed with any cardiovascular diseases, they need to consult a cardiologist with the purpose of correcting both medicated and medication-free therapy for the readaptation period.

  15. Comparing the risk associated with psychosocial work conditions and health behaviours on incident hypertension over a nine-year period in Ontario, Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Peter M; Mustard, Cameron A; Lu, Hong; Glazier, Richard H

    2013-01-07

    Hypertension is an increasingly important health concern in Canada. This paper examines the risks associated with psychosocial working conditions compared to health behaviours on the risk of hypertension over a 9-year period in Ontario, Canada. We used data from Ontario respondents to the 2000-01 Canadian Community Health Survey linked to the Ontario Health Information Plan database covering physician services and the Canadian Institute for Health Information database for hospital admissions. We focused on labour market participants aged 35 to 60, who had not been previously diagnosed with hypertension, were not self-employed, and were working more than 10 hours per week, more than 20 weeks in the previous 12 months (N = 6,611). Subjects were followed for a nine-year period to ascertain incidence of hypertension. Low job control was associated with an increased risk of hypertension among men, but not among women. The population attributable fraction associated with low job control among males was 11.8% in our fully adjusted model. There was no consistent pattern of increased risk of hypertension across different levels of health behaviours. Primary prevention efforts to reduce the incidence of hypertension predominantly target modifiable health behaviours. Evidence from this longitudinal cohort suggests that modifiable characteristics of the work environment should also be considered in the design of cardiovascular disease prevention programs, in particular for male labour market participants.

  16. RETARDATION OF LOW PEATLANDS HABITAT CONDITIONS TRANSFORMATION IN THE VALLEY OF SUPRAŚL RIVER IN THE PERIOD OF 1987-2011

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aleksander Kiryluk

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, there were shown the physico-chemical properties of post-boggy soil in the result of conducted melioration in the meadow object of Suraśl Górna. The researches were done in the period of 1987-2001 in two habitats: moist soil-moisture complex (PSMC-B and drying moist soil-moisture complex (PSMC-C. In the moist habitat, the level of ground water was in the depth of 30-98 cm from the land surface and fed the root layer of soil. In the drying moist habitat, the ground water was below the depth of 100 cm in the vegetation season and was periodically inaccessible for the meadow plants. Unfavourable water conditions in drying moist habitat have caused the condensation of peat mass and the decrease of water capacity of soil. In time, the progressive changes of physical and water properties effected negatively the natural values in post-boggy ecosystems. The changes of water properties caused the disappearance of many flora species, often classified as rare or protected species for example Epipatis palustris (L. Crantz. The retardation of unfavourable changes can be achieved by the depth regulation of ground water laying and proper (especially medium intensive meadow exploitation of these ecosystems.

  17. Development of rabbit embryos during a 96-h period of in vitro culture after superovulatory treatment under conditions of elevated ambient temperature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, H; Dooley, M P; Hopkins, S M; Anderson, L L; Yibchok-anun, S; Hsu, W H

    1999-08-16

    The effects of elevated ambient temperature on the response to exogenous gonadotropins were evaluated in female New Zealand White rabbits exposed to 33+/-1 degrees C (mean +/- SE) and 10-30% relative humidity (8 h/day) during a 5-day period. Does were treated with pFSH (0.3 mg/0.3 ml Standard Armour) twice daily during three consecutive days with a minimum interval of 8 h between injections. Six hours after the last FSH injection all does were removed from the experimental chamber, given hCG (25 IU/kg) and paired overnight. Nineteen hours after pairing, embryos were flushed from the reproductive tracts, evaluated, and subjected to in vitro culture during a 96-h period. The ovulatory responses to exogenous gonadotropins and fertilization rates did not differ significantly under conditions of elevated ambient temperature, whereas fewer blastocysts and increased number of degenerate embryos were observed after culture. We conclude that although hyperthermia was induced during exposure to elevated ambient temperature, it did not alter the ovulatory responses to gonadotropin treatment and plasma concentrations of FSH and LH compared with does in a thermoneutral environment. Exposure of donor rabbits to elevated ambient temperature before mating, however, increased embryonic degeneration.

  18. Sustainable Mars Sample Return

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alston, Christie; Hancock, Sean; Laub, Joshua; Perry, Christopher; Ash, Robert

    2011-01-01

    The proposed Mars sample return mission will be completed using natural Martian resources for the majority of its operations. The system uses the following technologies: In-Situ Propellant Production (ISPP), a methane-oxygen propelled Mars Ascent Vehicle (MAV), a carbon dioxide powered hopper, and a hydrogen fueled balloon system (large balloons and small weather balloons). The ISPP system will produce the hydrogen, methane, and oxygen using a Sabatier reactor. a water electrolysis cell, water extracted from the Martian surface, and carbon dioxide extracted from the Martian atmosphere. Indigenous hydrogen will fuel the balloon systems and locally-derived methane and oxygen will fuel the MAV for the return of a 50 kg sample to Earth. The ISPP system will have a production cycle of 800 days and the estimated overall mission length is 1355 days from Earth departure to return to low Earth orbit. Combining these advanced technologies will enable the proposed sample return mission to be executed with reduced initial launch mass and thus be more cost efficient. The successful completion of this mission will serve as the next step in the advancement of Mars exploration technology.

  19. Return of qualified Sudanese

    OpenAIRE

    Lindsay T McMahon

    2007-01-01

    With the signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement in January 2005, the new Government of South Sudan began to call for the return of the millions of South Sudanese IDP s and refugees. The International Organization for Migration (IOM) has developed a programme to help them do so.

  20. Return of qualified Sudanese

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lindsay T McMahon

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available With the signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement in January 2005, the new Government of South Sudan began to call for the return of the millions of South Sudanese IDP s and refugees. The International Organization for Migration (IOM has developed a programme to help them do so.

  1. Higher Education Endowments Return

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bahlmann, David; Walda, John D.; Sedlacek, Verne O.

    2012-01-01

    A new study of endowments by the National Association of College and University Business Officers (NACUBO) and the Commonfund Institute has brought good news to college and universities: While endowment returns dropped precipitously in fiscal year 2009 as a result of the financial crisis and accompanying slide in equity markets, they climbed to an…

  2. Return to Play

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mangan, Marianne

    2013-01-01

    Call it physical activity, call it games, or call it play. Whatever its name, it's a place we all need to return to. In the physical education, recreation, and dance professions, we need to redesign programs to address the need for and want of play that is inherent in all of us.

  3. Body condition score and plane of nutrition prepartum affect adipose tissue transcriptome regulators of metabolism and inflammation in grazing dairy cows during the transition period.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vailati-Riboni, M; Kanwal, M; Bulgari, O; Meier, S; Priest, N V; Burke, C R; Kay, J K; McDougall, S; Mitchell, M D; Walker, C G; Crookenden, M; Heiser, A; Roche, J R; Loor, J J

    2016-01-01

    Recent studies demonstrating a higher incidence of metabolic disorders after calving have challenged the management practice of increasing dietary energy density during the last ~3 wk prepartum. Despite our knowledge at the whole-animal level, the tissue-level mechanisms that are altered in response to feeding management prepartum remain unclear. Our hypothesis was that prepartum body condition score (BCS), in combination with feeding management, plays a central role in the peripartum changes associated with energy balance and inflammatory state. Twenty-eight mid-lactation grazing dairy cows of mixed age and breed were randomly allocated to 1 of 4 treatment groups in a 2 × 2 factorial arrangement: 2 prepartum BCS categories (4.0 and 5.0, based on a 10-point scale; BCS4, BCS5) obtained via differential feeding management during late-lactation, and 2 levels of energy intake during the 3 wk preceding calving (75 and 125% of estimated requirements). Subcutaneous adipose tissue was harvested via biopsy at -1, 1, and 4 wk relative to parturition. Quantitative polymerase chain reaction was used to measure mRNA and microRNA (miRNA) expression of targets related to fatty acid metabolism (lipogenesis, lipolysis), adipokine synthesis, and inflammation. Both prepartum BCS and feeding management had a significant effect on mRNA and miRNA expression throughout the peripartum period. Overfed BCS5 cows had the greatest prepartum expression of fatty acid synthase (FASN) and an overall greater expression of leptin (LEP); BCS5 was also associated with greater overall adiponectin (ADIPOQ) and peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor gamma (PPARG), whereas overfeeding upregulated expression of proadipogenic miRNA. Higher postpartum expression of chemokine ligand 5 (CCL5) and the cytokines interleukin 6 (IL6) and tumor necrosis factor (TNF) was detected in overfed BCS5 cows. Feed-restricted BCS4 cows had the highest overall interleukin 1 (IL1B) expression. Prepartum feed restriction

  4. Bond return predictability in expansions and recessions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Engsted, Tom; Møller, Stig Vinther; Jensen, Magnus David Sander

    We document that over the period 1953-2011 US bond returns are predictable in expansionary periods but unpredictable during recessions. This result holds in both in-sample and out-of-sample analyses and using both univariate regressions and combination forecasting techniques. A simulation study...... but negative in recessions. The results are also consistent with tests showing that the expectations hypothesis of the term structure holds in recessions but not in expansions. However, the results for bonds are in sharp contrast to results for stocks showing that stock returns are predictable in recessions...... but not in expansions. Thus, our results indicate that there is not a common predictive pattern of stock and bond returns associated with the state of the economy....

  5. Risk-Return Trade-Off for European Stock Markets

    OpenAIRE

    Aslanidis, Nektarios; Christiansen, Charlotte; Savva, Christos S.

    2015-01-01

    This paper adopts dynamic factor models with macro-finance predictors to revisit the intertemporal risk-return relation in five large European stock markets. We identify country specific, Euro area, and global factors to determine the conditional moments of returns considering the role of higher-order moments as additional measures of risk. The preferred combination of factors varies across countries. In the linear model, there is a strong but negative relation between conditional returns and...

  6. Oil Volatility Risk and Expected Stock Returns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christoffersen, Peter; Pan, Xuhui (Nick)

    return between the quintile of stocks with low exposure and high exposure to oil volatility is significant at 0.66% per month, and oil volatility risk carries a significant risk premium of -0.60% per month. In the post-financialization period, oil volatility risk is strongly related with various measures...

  7. The Returns on Investment Grade Diamonds

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Renneboog, L.D.R.

    2013-01-01

    Abstract: This paper examines the risk-return characteristics of investment grade gems (white diamonds, colored diamonds and other types of gems including sapphires, rubies, and emeralds). The transactions are coming from gem auctions and span the period 1999-2012. Over our time frame, the annual

  8. Socio-demographic transformations and living conditions among two indigenous and black populations in Northern Cauca during the period of 1993-2005.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urrea Giraldo, Fernando; Rodríguez Sánchez, Diego Alejandro

    2012-04-01

    To describe the changes that occurred in some patterns of socio-demographic variables and in living conditions among the Nasa, Guambiana and Afrocolombian populations in the northern region of the Department of Cauca, and those occurring in two residential communities, one white-mestizo and one black, in Cali during the 1993-2005 period. This paper presents a descriptive study that analyzes several socio-demographic indicators from the census of 1993 and 2005, the specific data include: rate of juvenile dependency; total masculinity index; average size of the household; specific global and local birth rates, and infant mortality rates; life expectancy at birth; average years of schooling; health cover age status; and percentage of the population with unmet basic needs (UBN). In this way, it is possible to note differences in the course of socio-demographic evolution and in the standard of living trends in the differing populations under study. The Guambiana Indian population in the municipality of Silvia presents lower birth rates than the Nasa population, characterized by their seasonal birth rates. Differing from the pattern of the indigenous people of Northern Cauca, the Afro-Colombian population both from this region and from the population residing in the urban zones of Cali's tend to show similar socio-demographic patterns. Although there have been profound changes recorded during this period among these populations under study, the ethnic-racial inequalities and those of social class seem to persist. From this first diagnosis, attention is called to the need for a more adequate reproductive health policy to attend the specific needs presented by the indigenous population.

  9. Attendance at cultural events, reading books or periodicals, and making music or singing in a choir as determinants for survival: Swedish interview survey of living conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bygren, L O; Konlaan, B B; Johansson, S E

    To investigate the possible influence of attendance at cultural events, reading books or periodicals, making music or singing in a choir as determinants for survival. A simple random sample was drawn of 15,198 individuals aged 16-74 years. Of these, 85% (12,982) were interviewed by trained non-medical interviewers between 1982 and 1983 about cultural activities. They were followed up with respect to survival until 31 December 1991. Swedish interview survey of living conditions comprising a random sample of the adult Swedish population. 12,675 people interviewed between 1982 and 1983. Survival of subjects after controlling for eight confounding variables: age, sex, education level, income, long term disease, social network, smoking, and physical exercise. 6,301 men and 6,374 women were followed up; 533 men and 314 women died during this period. The control variables influenced survival in the expected directions except for social network for men; a significant negative effective was found when the analysis was made separately for men and women. We found an influence on mortality when the eight control variables were controlled for in people who rarely attended events compared with those attending most often, the relative risk being 1.57 (95% confidence interval 1.18 to 2.09). Attendance at cultural events may have a positive influence on survival. Long term follow up of large samples with confounders that are well controlled for and with the cultural stimulation more highly specified should be used to try to falsify the hypothesis before experiments start.

  10. Electronic trading system and returns volatility in the oil futures market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liao, Huei-Chu; Lee, Yi-Huey; Suen, Yu-Bo

    2008-01-01

    This paper uses daily Brent crude prices to investigate the employment of electronic trading on the returns conditional volatility in the oil futures market. After a suitable GARCH model is established, the conditional volatility series are found. The Bai and Perron model is then used to find two significant structural breaks for these conditional volatility series around two implementation dates of electronic trading. This result indicates that the change in the trading system has significant impacts on the returns volatility since our estimated second break date is very close to the all-electronic trade implementation date. Moreover, the conditional volatility in the all-electronic trading period is found to be more dominated by the temporal persistence rather than the volatility clustering effect. All these evidence can shed some light for explaining the high relationship between more volatile world oil price and the more popular electronic trade. (author)

  11. Predicting the conditions under which vibroacoustic resonances with external periodic loads occur in the primary coolant circuits of VVER-based NPPs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Proskuryakov, K. N.; Fedorov, A. I.; Zaporozhets, M. V.

    2015-08-01

    The accident at the Japanese Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant (NPP) caused by an earthquake showed the need of taking further efforts aimed at improving the design and engineering solutions for ensuring seismic resistance of NPPs with due regard to mutual influence of the dynamic processes occurring in the NPP building structures and process systems. Resonance interaction between the vibrations of NPP equipment and coolant pressure pulsations leads to an abnormal growth of dynamic stresses in structural materials, accelerated exhaustion of equipment service life, and increased number of sudden equipment failures. The article presents the results from a combined calculation-theoretical and experimental substantiation of mutual amplification of two kinds of external periodic loads caused by rotation of the reactor coolant pump (RCP) rotor and an earthquake. The data of vibration measurements at an NPP are presented, which confirm the predicted multiple amplification of vibrations in the steam generator and RCP at a certain combination of coolant thermal-hydraulic parameters. It is shown that the vibration frequencies of the main equipment may fall in the frequency band corresponding to the maximal values in the envelope response spectra constructed on the basis of floor accelerograms. The article presents the results from prediction of conditions under which vibroacoustic resonances with external periodic loads take place, which confirm the occurrence of additional earthquake-induced multiple growth of pressure pulsation intensity in the steam generator at the 8.3 Hz frequency and additional multiple growth of vibrations of the RCP and the steam generator cold header at the 16.6 Hz frequency. It is shown that at the elastic wave frequency equal to 8.3 Hz in the coolant, resonance occurs with the frequency of forced vibrations caused by the rotation of the RCP rotor. A conclusion is drawn about the possibility of exceeding the design level of equipment vibrations

  12. Projected changes of snow conditions and avalanche activity in a warming climate: the French Alps over the 2020-2050 and 2070-2100 periods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castebrunet, H.; Eckert, N.; Giraud, G.; Durand, Y.; Morin, S.

    2014-09-01

    Projecting changes in snow cover due to climate warming is important for many societal issues, including the adaptation of avalanche risk mitigation strategies. Efficient modelling of future snow cover requires high resolution to properly resolve the topography. Here, we introduce results obtained through statistical downscaling techniques allowing simulations of future snowpack conditions including mechanical stability estimates for the mid and late 21st century in the French Alps under three climate change scenarios. Refined statistical descriptions of snowpack characteristics are provided in comparison to a 1960-1990 reference period, including latitudinal, altitudinal and seasonal gradients. These results are then used to feed a statistical model relating avalanche activity to snow and meteorological conditions, so as to produce the first projection on annual/seasonal timescales of future natural avalanche activity based on past observations. The resulting statistical indicators are fundamental for the mountain economy in terms of anticipation of changes. Whereas precipitation is expected to remain quite stationary, temperature increase interacting with topography will constrain the evolution of snow-related variables on all considered spatio-temporal scales and will, in particular, lead to a reduction of the dry snowpack and an increase of the wet snowpack. Overall, compared to the reference period, changes are strong for the end of the 21st century, but already significant for the mid century. Changes in winter are less important than in spring, but wet-snow conditions are projected to appear at high elevations earlier in the season. At the same altitude, the southern French Alps will not be significantly more affected than the northern French Alps, which means that the snowpack will be preserved for longer in the southern massifs which are higher on average. Regarding avalanche activity, a general decrease in mean (20-30%) and interannual variability is

  13. Regime switches in the risk-return trade-off

    OpenAIRE

    Marcellino, Massimiliano; Ghysels, Eric; Guerin, Pierre

    2014-01-01

    This paper deals with the estimation of the risk-return trade-off. We use a MIDAS model for the conditional variance and allow for possible switches in the risk-return relation through a Markov-switching specification. We find strong evidence for regime changes in the risk-return relation. This finding is robust to a large range of specifications. In the first regime characterized by low ex-post returns and high volatility, the risk-return relation is reversed, whereas the intuitive positive ...

  14. Efficient Return Algorithms For Associated Plasticity With Multiple Yield Planes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Clausen, Johan Christian; Damkilde, Lars; Andersen, Lars

    2006-01-01

    of such criteria. The return formulae are in closed form and no iteration is required. The method accounts for three types of stress return: Return to a single yield plane, to a discontinuity line at the intersection of two yield planes and to a discontinuity point at the intersection between three or more yield...... planes. The infinitesimal and the consistent elastoplastic constitutive matrix are calculated for each type of stress return, as are the conditions to ascertain which type of return is required. The method is exemplified with the Mohr-Coulomb yield criterion....

  15. Product return management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shaharudin, Mohd Rizaimy; Govindan, Kannan; Zailani, Suhaiza

    2017-01-01

    The aim of this study is to examine the extent to which product returns motivate manufacturing firms to adopt closed-loop supply chain activities that influence the effectiveness of reverse supply chains. The hypotheses have been tested using data from a sample of 150 environmental management...... system ISO 14001 certified manufacturing firms in Malaysia through the census sampling approach. The results of the empirical test using LISREL Version 8.70 for the structural equation modeling support the fundamental explanation of the influence of the institutional forces towards the adoption of closed...... eventually impacts the firm's effectiveness in the reverse supply chain. The findings also help managers to understand the factors that can improve the outcome of the adoption of closed-loop supply chain activities by intensifying the extent of involvement in product returns, which provides a valuable...

  16. Grass-legume mixtures sustain strong yield advantage over monocultures under cool maritime growing conditions over a period of 5 years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helgadóttir, Áslaug; Suter, Matthias; Gylfadóttir, Thórey Ó; Kristjánsdóttir, Thórdís A; Lüscher, Andreas

    2018-05-22

    Grassland-based livestock systems in cool maritime regions are commonly dominated by grass monocultures receiving relatively high levels of fertilizer. The current study investigated whether grass-legume mixtures can improve the productivity, resource efficiency and robustness of yield persistence of cultivated grassland under extreme growing conditions over a period of 5 years. Monocultures and mixtures of two grasses (Phleum pratense and Festuca pratensis) and two legumes (Trifolium pratense and Trifolium repens), one of which was fast establishing and the other temporally persistent, were sown in a field trial. Relative abundance of the four species in the mixtures was systematically varied at sowing. The plots were maintained under three N levels (20, 70 and 220 kg N ha-1 year-1) and harvested twice a year for five consecutive years. Yields of individual species and interactions between all species present were modelled to estimate the species diversity effects. Significant positive diversity effects in all individual years and averaged across the 5 years were observed. Across years, the four-species equi-proportional mixture was 71 % (N20: 20 kg N ha-1 year-1) and 51 % (N70: 70 kg N ha-1 year-1) more productive than the average of monocultures, and the highest yielding mixture was 36 % (N20) and 39 % (N70) more productive than the highest yielding monoculture. Importantly, diversity effects were also evident at low relative abundances of either species group, grasses or legumes in the mixture. Mixtures suppressed weeds significantly better than monocultures consistently during the course of the experiment at all N levels. The results show that even in the less productive agricultural systems in the cool maritime regions grass-legume mixtures can contribute substantially and persistently to a more sustainable agriculture. Positive grass-legume interactions suggest that symbiotic N2 fixation is maintained even under these marginal conditions, provided that

  17. Perspectives of refugees in Dadaab on returning to Somalia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Caroline Abu Sa’Da

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available MSF recently asked Somali refugees in Dadaab’s Dagahaley camp about their living conditions and their thoughts about returning to Somalia in the near future. The responses suggest that bad living conditions in the camp are not conducive to wanting to return, despite a widespread belief to the contrary.

  18. The dynamic correlation between policy uncertainty and stock market returns in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Miao; Jiang, Zhi-Qiang

    2016-11-01

    The dynamic correlation is examined between government's policy uncertainty and Chinese stock market returns in the period from January 1995 to December 2014. We find that the stock market is significantly correlated to policy uncertainty based on the results of the Vector Auto Regression (VAR) and Structural Vector Auto Regression (SVAR) models. In contrast, the results of the Dynamic Conditional Correlation Generalized Multivariate Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (DCC-MGARCH) model surprisingly show a low dynamic correlation coefficient between policy uncertainty and market returns, suggesting that the fluctuations of each variable are greatly influenced by their values in the preceding period. Our analysis highlights the understanding of the dynamical relationship between stock market and fiscal and monetary policy.

  19. PBE-DFT theoretical study of organic photovoltaic materials based on thiophene with 1D and 2D periodic boundary conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saïl, K.; Bassou, G.; Gafour, M. H.; Miloua, F.

    2015-12-01

    Conjugated organic systems such as thiophene are interesting topics in the field of organic solar cells. We theoretically investigate π-conjugated polymers constituted by n units ( n = 1-11) based on the thiophene (Tn) molecule. The computations of the geometries and electronic structures of these compounds are performed using the density functional theory (DFT) at the 6-31 G( d, p) level of theory and the Perdew-Burke-Eenzerhof (PBE) formulation of the generalized gradient approximation with periodic boundary conditions (PBCs) in one (1D) and two (2D) dimensions. Moreover, the electronic properties (HOCO, LUCO, E gap, V oc, and V bi) are determined from 1D and 2D PBC to understand the effect of the number of rings in polythiophene. The absorption properties—excitation energies ( E ex), the maximal absorption wavelength (λmax), oscillator strengths, and light harvesting—efficiency are studied using the time-dependent DFT method. Our studies show that changing the number of thiophene units can effectively modulate the electronic and optical properties. On the other hand, our work demonstrates the efficiency of theoretical calculation in the PBCs.

  20. PBE–DFT theoretical study of organic photovoltaic materials based on thiophene with 1D and 2D periodic boundary conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saïl, K.; Bassou, G.; Gafour, M. H.; Miloua, F.

    2015-01-01

    Conjugated organic systems such as thiophene are interesting topics in the field of organic solar cells. We theoretically investigate π-conjugated polymers constituted by n units (n = 1–11) based on the thiophene (Tn) molecule. The computations of the geometries and electronic structures of these compounds are performed using the density functional theory (DFT) at the 6–31 G(d, p) level of theory and the Perdew–Burke–Eenzerhof (PBE) formulation of the generalized gradient approximation with periodic boundary conditions (PBCs) in one (1D) and two (2D) dimensions. Moreover, the electronic properties (HOCO, LUCO, E gap , V oc , and V bi ) are determined from 1D and 2D PBC to understand the effect of the number of rings in polythiophene. The absorption properties—excitation energies (E ex ), the maximal absorption wavelength (λ max ), oscillator strengths, and light harvesting—efficiency are studied using the time-dependent DFT method. Our studies show that changing the number of thiophene units can effectively modulate the electronic and optical properties. On the other hand, our work demonstrates the efficiency of theoretical calculation in the PBCs

  1. PBE–DFT theoretical study of organic photovoltaic materials based on thiophene with 1D and 2D periodic boundary conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saïl, K., E-mail: sailkari7@yahoo.com; Bassou, G. [Université Djillali Liabès, Laboratoire de Microscopie, Microanalyse de la Matière et Spectroscopie Moléculaire (L2MSM), Faculté des Sciences Exactes (Algeria); Gafour, M. H. [Centre Universitaire Ahmed Zabana de Rélizane, Institut des Sciences Exactes et Sciences de la Nature et de la Vie, Département de Chimie (Algeria); Miloua, F. [Université Djillali Liabès, Laboratoire de Microscopie, Microanalyse de la Matière et Spectroscopie Moléculaire (L2MSM), Faculté des Sciences Exactes (Algeria)

    2015-12-15

    Conjugated organic systems such as thiophene are interesting topics in the field of organic solar cells. We theoretically investigate π-conjugated polymers constituted by n units (n = 1–11) based on the thiophene (Tn) molecule. The computations of the geometries and electronic structures of these compounds are performed using the density functional theory (DFT) at the 6–31 G(d, p) level of theory and the Perdew–Burke–Eenzerhof (PBE) formulation of the generalized gradient approximation with periodic boundary conditions (PBCs) in one (1D) and two (2D) dimensions. Moreover, the electronic properties (HOCO, LUCO, E{sub gap}, V{sub oc}, and V{sub bi}) are determined from 1D and 2D PBC to understand the effect of the number of rings in polythiophene. The absorption properties—excitation energies (E{sub ex}), the maximal absorption wavelength (λ{sub max}), oscillator strengths, and light harvesting—efficiency are studied using the time-dependent DFT method. Our studies show that changing the number of thiophene units can effectively modulate the electronic and optical properties. On the other hand, our work demonstrates the efficiency of theoretical calculation in the PBCs.

  2. Association of changes among body condition score during the transition period with NEFA and BHBA concentrations, milk production, fertility, and health of Holstein cows.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barletta, R V; Maturana Filho, M; Carvalho, P D; Del Valle, T A; Netto, A S; Rennó, F P; Mingoti, R D; Gandra, J R; Mourão, G B; Fricke, P M; Sartori, R; Madureira, E H; Wiltbank, M C

    2017-12-01

    Our objective was to evaluate the association between body condition score (BCS) change during the transition period with fertility, non-esterified fatty acids (NEFA) and beta-hydroxybutyrate (BHBA) concentrations, milk yield, and health problems of Holstein cows in a retrospective cohort study. Holstein cows (n = 232) were assessed for BCS (5 point scale; 0.25 point increments) and had blood collected at 21 and 7 d before, on the day of, and 7 and 21 d after calving. Blood samples were assayed for NEFA and BHBA concentrations. All cows received a timed artificial insemination (TAI) at 65 ± 3 days in milk (DIM) following a Presynch-Ovsynch protocol with a progesterone implant during the Ovsynch protocol. Cows were grouped based on BCS change after calving as to whether they: 1) lost (L), 2) maintained (M), or 3) gained (G) BCS. Data were analyzed by logistic regression with GLIMMIX and ANOVA with repeated measures using the MIXED procedures of SAS. Both NEFA and BHBA concentrations after calving differed (P fertility, and occurrence of health problems during the lactation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Role of physical activity, physical fitness, and chronic health conditions on the physical independence of community-dwelling older adults over a 5-year period.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pereira, Catarina; Baptista, Fátima; Cruz-Ferreira, Ana

    2016-01-01

    The variability in the individual characteristics and habits could help determine how older adults maintain independence. The impact of the variability in physical activity, physical fitness, body composition, and chronic health conditions (co-morbidities) on the independence of older adults, especially over time, is seldom examined. This study aims to analyze quantitatively the impact of baseline values and changes in physical activity, physical fitness, body composition, and co-morbidities on the physical independence of community-dwelling, older adults over a 5-year period. Data from 106 and 85 community-dwelling adults (≥60 years) were collected at baseline and after five years, respectively. Linear regression selected the main predictors of changes in physical independence as follows: the baseline physical independence (β=0.032, R(2)=9.9%) and co-morbidities (β=-0.191, R(2)=6.3%) and the changes in co-morbidities (β=-0.244, R(2)=10.8%), agility (β=-0.288, R(2)=6.7%), aerobic endurance (β=0.007, R(2)=3.2%), and walking expenditure (β=0.001, R(2)=5.1%) (page and gender. Gains of up to 8.3% in physical independence were associated with improvements in these variables, which corresponds to regaining independence for performing one or two activities of daily living. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

  4. Effects of dry period length and concentrate protein content in late lactation on body condition score change and subsequent lactation performance of thin high genetic merit dairy cows.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dale, A J; Purcell, P J; Wylie, A R G; Gordon, A W; Ferris, C P

    2017-03-01

    Improving body condition score of thin cows in late lactation is necessary, because cows that are thin at drying off exhibit decreased fertility postpartum and are at increased risk of disease and of being culled in the subsequent lactation. Offering a diet low in crude protein (CP) content in late lactation may help to improve body condition score (BCS) at drying off, whereas imposing an extended dry period (EDP) has been advocated as another way to increase BCS at calving. To test these hypotheses, 65 thin cows (mean BCS 2.25 at 14 wk precalving) were managed on 1 of 3 treatments between 13 and 9 wk prepartum: normal protein control {NP; grass silage + 5 kg/d of a normal protein concentrate [228 g of CP/kg of dry matter (DM)]}, low protein [LP; grass silage + 5 kg/d of a low-protein concentrate (153 g of CP/kg of DM)], or EDP (cows dried off at 13 wk precalving and offered a grass silage-only diet). Both NP and LP cows were dried off at wk 8 prepartum, after which all cows were offered a grass silage-only diet until calving. After calving, all cows were offered a common diet (supplying 11.1 kg of concentrate DM/cow per day) for 19 wk. Between 13 and 9 wk prepartum, LP cows had lower DM intake, milk yield, and body weight than NP cows. Whereas EDP cows had lower serum β-hydroxybutyrate and fatty acid concentrations than those of NP cows, BCS at wk 9 prepartum did not differ between treatments. Cows on the LP treatment continued to have lower DMI and BW than those of NP and EDP cows between 8 wk prepartum and calving, but only EDP cows had a higher BCS at calving. Treatment did not affect calving difficulty score or calf birth weight. Although all cows were offered a common diet postpartum, cows on the LP treatment had lower DM intake and milk fat + plus protein yield than cows on any other treatment during the 19-wk period postpartum, but we found no differences in any postpartum indicator of body tissue reserves. The treatments imposed from wk 13 to 9 prepartum

  5. Does Exposure to Returning SEN Students Harm Peers’ Outcomes?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rangvid, Beatrice Schindler

    Returning SEN (special educational needs) students from segregated settings to regular class rooms may have spill-over effects on their peers. Using a combination of survey data and data from administrative registers from Denmark, I investigate whether becoming exposed to returning SEN students a...... themselves finds that while reading results are unaffected, returners experience large improvements in math achievement of roughly 65% of a standard deviation over a three year period. Intermediate and advanced math skills are more affected than basic skills....

  6. INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP LEVEL AND RISK-ADJUSTED RETURN

    OpenAIRE

    Isaiah, Chioma; Li, Meng (Emma)

    2017-01-01

    This paper examines the relationship between the level of institutional ownership andrisk-adjusted return on stocks. We find a significant positive relationship between the level ofinstitutional ownership on a stock and its risk-adjusted return. This result holds both in the longrun and in shorter time periods. Our findings suggest that all things being equal, it is possible toobtain risk-adjusted return by going short on the stocks with low institutional ownership andgoing long on those with...

  7. Forecasting the variance and return of Mexican financial series with symmetric GARCH models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fátima Irina VILLALBA PADILLA

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The present research shows the application of the generalized autoregresive conditional heteroskedasticity models (GARCH in order to forecast the variance and return of the IPC, the EMBI, the weighted-average government funding rate, the fix exchange rate and the Mexican oil reference, as important tools for investment decisions. Forecasts in-sample and out-of-sample are performed. The covered period involves from 2005 to 2011.

  8. Forecasting volatility in gold returns under the GARCH, IGARCH and FIGARCH frameworks: New evidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bentes, Sonia R.

    2015-11-01

    This study employs three volatility models of the GARCH family to examine the volatility behavior of gold returns. Much of the literature on this topic suggests that gold plays a fundamental role as a hedge and safe haven against adverse market conditions, which is particularly relevant in periods of high volatility. This makes understanding gold volatility important for a number of theoretical and empirical applications, namely investment valuation, portfolio selection, risk management, monetary policy-making, futures and option pricing, hedging strategies and value-at-risk (VaR) policies (e.g. Baur and Lucey (2010)). We use daily data from August 2, 1976 to February 6, 2015 and divide the full sample into two periods: the in-sample period (August 2, 1976-October 24, 2008) is used to estimate model coefficients, while the out-of-sample period (October 27, 2008-February 6, 2015) is for forecasting purposes. Specifically, we employ the GARCH(1,1), IGARCH(1,1) and FIGARCH(1, d,1) specifications. The results show that the FIGARCH(1, d,1) is the best model to capture linear dependence in the conditional variance of the gold returns as given by the information criteria. It is also found to be the best model to forecast the volatility of gold returns.

  9. Meteorological and dust aerosol conditions over the western Saharan region observed at Fennec Supersite-2 during the intensive observation period in June 2011

    Science.gov (United States)

    Todd, M. C.; Allen, C. J. T.; Bart, M.; Bechir, M.; Bentefouet, J.; Brooks, B. J.; Cavazos-Guerra, C.; Clovis, T.; Deyane, S.; Dieh, M.; Engelstaedter, S.; Flamant, C.; Garcia-Carreras, L.; Gandega, A.; Gascoyne, M.; Hobby, M.; Kocha, C.; Lavaysse, C.; Marsham, J. H.; Martins, J. V.; McQuaid, J. B.; Ngamini, J. B.; Parker, D. J.; Podvin, T.; Rocha-Lima, A.; Traore, S.; Wang, Y.; Washington, R.

    2013-08-01

    The climate of the Sahara is relatively poorly observed and understood, leading to errors in forecast model simulations. We describe observations from the Fennec Supersite-2 (SS2) at Zouerate, Mauritania during the June 2011 Fennec Intensive Observation Period. These provide an improved basis for understanding and evaluating processes, models, and remote sensing. Conditions during June 2011 show a marked distinction between: (i) a "Maritime phase" during the early part of the month when the western sector of the Sahara experienced cool northwesterly maritime flow throughout the lower troposphere with shallow daytime boundary layers, very little dust uplift/transport or cloud cover. (ii) A subsequent "heat low" phase which coincided with a marked and rapid westward shift in the Saharan heat low towards its mid-summer climatological position and advection of a deep hot, dusty air layer from the central Sahara (the "Saharan residual layer"). This transition affected the entire western-central Sahara. Dust advected over SS2 was primarily from episodic low-level jet (LLJ)-generated emission in the northeasterly flow around surface troughs. Unlike Fennec SS1, SS2 does not often experience cold pools from moist convection and associated dust emissions. The diurnal evolution at SS2 is strongly influenced by the Atlantic inflow (AI), a northwesterly flow of shallow, cool and moist air propagating overnight from coastal West Africa to reach SS2 in the early hours. The AI cools and moistens the western Saharan and weakens the nocturnal LLJ, limiting its dust-raising potential. We quantify the ventilation and moistening of the western flank of the Sahara by (i) the large-scale flow and (ii) the regular nocturnal AI and LLJ mesoscale processes.

  10. Cost Efficiency and Returns to Scope in Italian Investment Firms

    OpenAIRE

    Marcello Basili; Fulvio Fontini

    2005-01-01

    This paper estimates cost efficiency and returns to scope of Italian investment firms during the period 1998-2002, following the stochastic frontier function approach. Results indicate a large inefficiency for Italian investment firms (with a high standard deviation across sample) and the absence of significant returns to scope

  11. Mars Sample Return Architecture Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, C. D.; Vijendran, S.

    2018-04-01

    NASA and ESA are exploring potential concepts for a Sample Retrieval Lander and Earth Return Orbiter that could return samples planned to be collected and cached by the Mars 2020 rover mission. We provide an overview of the Mars Sample Return architecture.

  12. The Return to Foreign Aid

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dalgaard, Carl-Johan Lars; Hansen, Henrik

    2017-01-01

    We estimate the average rate of return on investments financed by aid and by domestic resource mobilisation, using aggregate data. Both returns are expected to vary across countries and time. Consequently we develop a correlated random coefficients model to estimate the average returns. Across...... different estimators and two different data sources for GDP and investment our findings are remarkably robust; the average gross return on ‘aid investments’ is about 20 per cent. This is in accord with micro estimates of the economic rate of return on aid projects and with aggregate estimates of the rate...

  13. In-soil radon anomalies as precursors of earthquakes: a case study in the SE slope of Mt. Etna in a period of quite stable weather conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vizzini, Fabio; Brai, Maria

    2012-01-01

    In-soil radon concentrations as well as climatic parameters (temperature, atmospheric pressure and relative humidity) were collected in St. Venerina (Eastern Sicily – Italy) from March 19th to May 22nd 2009, close to an active fault system called Timpe Fault System (TFS), which is strictly linked to the geodynamics of Mt. Etna. During the monitoring period no drastic climatic variations were observed and, on the other hand, important seismic events were recorded close to the monitoring site. A seismic swarm composed of 5 earthquakes was observed in the Milo area on March 25th (M max = 2.7) at just 5.1 km from the site, and on May 13th an earthquake of 3.6 magnitude was recorded in the territory of St. Venerina, at just 3.2 km from the site; the earthquake was felt by the population and reported by all local and regional media. The in-soil radon concentrations have shown anomalous increases possibly linked to the earthquakes recorded, but certainly not attributable to local meteorology. To verify this assumption the average radon concentration and the standard deviation (σ) have been calculated and the regions of ±1.5σ and ±2σ deviation from the average concentration have been investigated. Moreover, to further minimise the contribution of the meteorological parameters on the in-soil radon fluctuations, a multiple regressions method has been used. To distinguish those earthquakes which could generate in-soil radon anomalies as precursors, the Dobrovolsky radius has been applied. The results obtained suggests that a clear correlation between earthquakes and in-soil radon increases exist, and that the detection of the in-soil radon anomalies becomes surely simpler in particular favourable conditions: weather stability, earthquakes within the Dobrovolsky radius and close to the monitoring area. Moreover, the absence of large variations of the climatic parameters, which could generate incoherent noise components to the radon signal, has made the radon

  14. In-soil radon anomalies as precursors of earthquakes: a case study in the SE slope of Mt. Etna in a period of quite stable weather conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vizzini, Fabio; Brai, Maria

    2012-11-01

    In-soil radon concentrations as well as climatic parameters (temperature, atmospheric pressure and relative humidity) were collected in St. Venerina (Eastern Sicily - Italy) from March 19th to May 22nd 2009, close to an active fault system called Timpe Fault System (TFS), which is strictly linked to the geodynamics of Mt. Etna. During the monitoring period no drastic climatic variations were observed and, on the other hand, important seismic events were recorded close to the monitoring site. A seismic swarm composed of 5 earthquakes was observed in the Milo area on March 25th (M(max) = 2.7) at just 5.1 km from the site, and on May 13th an earthquake of 3.6 magnitude was recorded in the territory of St. Venerina, at just 3.2 km from the site; the earthquake was felt by the population and reported by all local and regional media. The in-soil radon concentrations have shown anomalous increases possibly linked to the earthquakes recorded, but certainly not attributable to local meteorology. To verify this assumption the average radon concentration and the standard deviation (σ) have been calculated and the regions of ±1.5σ and ±2σ deviation from the average concentration have been investigated. Moreover, to further minimise the contribution of the meteorological parameters on the in-soil radon fluctuations, a multiple regressions method has been used. To distinguish those earthquakes which could generate in-soil radon anomalies as precursors, the Dobrovolsky radius has been applied. The results obtained suggests that a clear correlation between earthquakes and in-soil radon increases exist, and that the detection of the in-soil radon anomalies becomes surely simpler in particular favourable conditions: weather stability, earthquakes within the Dobrovolsky radius and close to the monitoring area. Moreover, the absence of large variations of the climatic parameters, which could generate incoherent noise components to the radon signal, has made the radon fluctuations

  15. The Equity Share in New Issues and Aggregate Stock Returns

    OpenAIRE

    Malcolm Baker; Jeffrey Wurgler

    1999-01-01

    The share of equity issues in total new equity and debt issues is a strong predictor of U.S. stock market returns between 1928 and 1997. In particular, firms issue relatively more equity than debt just before periods of low market returns. The equity share in new issues has stable predictive power in both halves of the sample period, and after controlling for other known predictors. We do not find support for efficient market ex

  16. Joint pricing and inventory replenishment decisions with returns and expediting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zhu, Stuart X.

    2012-01-01

    We study a single-item periodic-review model for the joint pricing and inventory replenishment problem with returns and expediting. Demand in consecutive periods are independent random variables and their distributions are price sensitive. At the end of each period, after the demand is realized, a

  17. The effects of financial risks on the relationship between earnings and stock returns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehri Akhavi Babi

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This study was conducted to investigate the effects of financial risks on the relationship between earnings per share and stock returns. The statistical population of the study consisted of the companies accepted by Tehran Stock Exchange. According to the conditions for sampling, 65 companies were selected during a period of six years from 2008 to 2013 (i.e., 390 fiscal years, and four hypotheses were set forth to achieve the purposes of the study. The first hypothesis tried to assess the relationship between earnings per share and stock returns. The second, third, and fourth hypotheses investigated the significance of the effects of three financial risks, namely liquidity, credit, and solvency risks on the relationship between earnings per share and stock returns. The hypotheses of the study were tested using linear and multiple regressions. The findings of the study indicated that there was a positive and significant relationship between earnings per share and stock returns. In addition, the results proved that the credit and solvency risks had negative and significant effects on the relationship between earnings per share and stock returns, but the effect of liquidity risk on this relationship was not significant.

  18. Risk-Return Trade-Off for European Stock Markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aslanidis, Nektarios; Christiansen, Charlotte; Savva, Christos S.

    This paper adopts dynamic factor models with macro-finance predictors to revisit the intertemporal risk-return relation in five large European stock markets. We identify country specific, Euro area, and global factors to determine the conditional moments of returns considering the role of higher...

  19. Market skewness risk and the cross section of stock returns

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chang, B.; Christoffersen, P.; Jacobs, K.

    2013-01-01

    The cross section of stock returns has substantial exposure to risk captured by higher moments of market returns. We estimate these moments from daily Standard & Poor's 500 index option data. The resulting time series of factors are genuinely conditional and forward-looking. Stocks with high

  20. Return and volatility transmission between gold and stock sectors: Application of portfolio management and hedging effectiveness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dilip Kumar

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The paper investigates the first and second orders moment transmission between gold and Indian industrial sectors with an application of portfolio design and hedging effectiveness using generalised VAR-ADCC-BVGARCH model. Our findings indicate unidirectional significant return spillover from gold to stock sectors. The negative values of estimated time varying conditional correlations are mainly observed during periods of market turbulence and crisis indicating the scope of portfolio diversification and hedging during these periods. We also estimate optimal weights, hedge ratios, and hedging effectiveness for the stock-gold portfolios. Our findings suggest that stock-gold portfolio provides better diversification benefits than stock portfolios.

  1. The Information Content of Corridor Volatility Measures During Calm and Turmoil Periods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elyas Elyasiani

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Measurement of volatility is of paramount importance in finance because of the effects on risk measurement and risk management. Corridor implied volatility measures allow us to disentangle the volatility of positive returns from that of negative returns, providing investors with additional information beyond standard market volatility. The aim of the paper is twofold. First, to propose different types of corridor implied volatility and some combinations of them as risk indicators, in order to provide useful information about investors’ sentiment and future market returns. Second, to investigate their usefulness in prediction of market returns under different market conditions (with a particular focus on the subprime crisis and the European debt crisis. The data set consists of daily index options traded on the Italian market and covers the 2005–2014 period. We find that upside corridor implied volatility measure embeds the highest information content about contemporaneous market returns, claiming the superiority of call options in measuring current sentiment in the market. Moreover, both upside and downside volatilities can be considered as barometers of investors’ fear. The volatility measures proposed have forecasting power on future returns only during high volatility periods and in particular during the European debt crisis. The explanatory power on future market returns improves when two of the proposed volatility measures are combined together in the same model.

  2. The Atlas of Health and Working Conditions by Occupation. 1. Occupational ranking lists and occupational profiles from periodical occupational health survey data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Broersen, J. P.; van Dijk, F. J.; Weel, A. N.; Verbeek, J. H.

    1995-01-01

    In this article, we describe methods which have been applied in the compilation of the Atlas of Health and Working conditions by Occupation. First, we discuss the need for information systems to identify problems concerning working conditions and health. Such information systems have an exploratory

  3. Market skewness risk and the cross section of stock returns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chang, B.Y.; Christoffersen, Peter; Jacobs, K.

    2013-01-01

    The cross section of stock returns has substantial exposure to risk captured by higher moments of market returns. We estimate these moments from daily Standard & Poor's 500 index option data. The resulting time series of factors are genuinely conditional and forward-looking. Stocks with high...... exposure to innovations in implied market skewness exhibit low returns on average. The results are robust to various permutations of the empirical setup. The market skewness risk premium is statistically and economically significant and cannot be explained by other common risk factors such as the market...... excess return or the size, book-to-market, momentum, and market volatility factors, or by firm characteristics....

  4. Return to the... past

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ammerich, M.

    2009-01-01

    This article goes back over the incidents occurring during the summer 2008, that is to say the uranium release from the Socatri facility in the South of France. From this point, the purpose studies the radiological situation of the Camargue seashore; the levels of radioactivity are from 3 to thirty times higher than these ones expected in this area, but the natural radioactivity with thorium and uranium coming from the granitic massifs erosion brings an important part. It is difficult to make the part between human and natural contribution to ambient radioactivity. However, it appears that to limit the water consumption until the time of dilution played its part was absolutely necessary. Then, because it is question of water, the drinking water is tackled. Some mineral waters go over the recommended limits of doses. A last return to the past with the radioactive watches, but this time with actual watches that activate detection. Two watches contained promethium 147, 147 Pm is a beta emitter but also gamma emitter. To end, in Ireland and Great Britain, some fire detectors contain americium 241. In fact, this article constitutes a summary of different abnormalities around radioactivity. (N.C.)

  5. The return of religion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Griffioen

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Religion is back in Philosophy as a respectable subject. Part 1 first charts what MacIntyre, Taylor and Derrida have meant in this regard. Subsequently, it turns to the Enlightenment to determine what constituted the breakthrough. It is found that even where the Enlightenment gave maximum room to religion i.e. as a civic religion and as “religion of the heart” it still excluded a constitutive relation to a transcendent revelation. Part 2 centres on the religion-faith distinction in reformational philosophy. Similar to the Enlightenment, religion is understood as part of human nature. However, human nature itself is conceived as intrinsically religious and depending for its light on revelation. Secondly, “religion” in this context also encompasses idols and religious substitutes. Thus, it directs attention to shopping malls, football stadiums, health policy, et cetera, as possible contexts of a return of religion. Examples show that this has become a popular approach. However, most of the publications surveyed fail to distinguish between an “analogical” and a “pistically qualified” use of religion, and are open to exaggerations (the shopping mall and football stadiums as temples, etc.. At this junction, the relevance is shown of the religion-faith distinction as well as of Elaine Botha’s theory of metaphors. The epilogue offers an integration of parts one and two.

  6. PUC fast track nips returns

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1990-01-01

    In the first of what it says will be annual cost-of-capital proceedings to set returns on equity and rates of return on rate base for electric utilities, the California Public Utilities Commission (PUC) lowered from 1989 levels the 1990 returns on common equity (ROE) and rates of return (ROR) for the state's four major investor-owned electric utilities. Under this fast-track procedure, by May 8 of every year, utilities will have to file an application for rate adjustments that reflect their projected costs of capital for the following year

  7. The return to foreign aid

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dalgaard, Carl-Johan Lars; Hansen, Henrik

    We investigate the marginal productivity of investment across countries. The aim is to estimate the return on investments financed by foreign aid and by domestic resource mobilization, using aggregate data. Both returns are expected to vary across countries and time. Consequently we develop...... a correlated random coefficients model, to estimate the average aggregate return on ‘aid investments’ and ‘domestic investments’. Across different estimators and two different sources for GDP and investment data our findings are remarkably robust; the average gross return on ‘aid investments’ is about 20 per...

  8. Value at Risk and Hedge Fund Return - Does High Risk Bring High Return?

    OpenAIRE

    Jing, Tao; Zhao, Hongxiang

    2010-01-01

    This paper mainly focuses on the correlation between live hedge fund return and their value at risk (VaR), and is based on the historical data from May 2000 to April 2010. The authors adopt portfolio level analyses and fund level cross-sectional regression, and find that there is significant positive correlation, both statistically and economically, between the hedge fund return and VaRs (parametric, non-parametric and GARCH). Further research is conducted by sub-dividing the overall period i...

  9. Return Migration to Mexico: Does Health Matter?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arenas, Erika; Goldman, Noreen; Pebley, Anne R; Teruel, Graciela

    2015-12-01

    We use data from three rounds of the Mexican Family Life Survey to examine whether migrants in the United States returning to Mexico in the period 2005-2012 have worse health than those remaining in the United States. Despite extensive interest by demographers in health-related selection, this has been a neglected area of study in the literature on U.S.-Mexico migration, and the few results to date have been contradictory and inconclusive. Using five self-reported health variables collected while migrants resided in the United States and subsequent migration history, we find direct evidence of higher probabilities of return migration for Mexican migrants in poor health as well as lower probabilities of return for migrants with improving health. These findings are robust to the inclusion of potential confounders reflecting the migrants' demographic characteristics, economic situation, family ties, and origin and destination characteristics. We anticipate that in the coming decade, health may become an even more salient issue in migrants' decisions about returning to Mexico, given the recent expansion in access to health insurance in Mexico.

  10. Returns on Investment in California County Departments of Public Health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Timothy T

    2016-08-01

    To estimate the average return on investment for the overall activities of county departments of public health in California. I gathered the elements necessary to estimate the average return on investment for county departments of public health in California during the period 2001 to 2008-2009. These came from peer-reviewed journal articles published as part of a larger project to develop a method for determining return on investment for public health by using a health economics framework. I combined these elements by using the standard formula for computing return on investment, and performed a sensitivity analysis. Then I compared the return on investment for county departments of public health with the returns on investment generated for various aspects of medical care. The estimated return on investment from $1 invested in county departments of public health in California ranges from $67.07 to $88.21. The very large estimated return on investment for California county departments of public health relative to the return on investment for selected aspects of medical care suggests that public health is a wise investment.

  11. Returns on Investment in California County Departments of Public Health

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-01-01

    Objectives. To estimate the average return on investment for the overall activities of county departments of public health in California. Methods. I gathered the elements necessary to estimate the average return on investment for county departments of public health in California during the period 2001 to 2008–2009. These came from peer-reviewed journal articles published as part of a larger project to develop a method for determining return on investment for public health by using a health economics framework. I combined these elements by using the standard formula for computing return on investment, and performed a sensitivity analysis. Then I compared the return on investment for county departments of public health with the returns on investment generated for various aspects of medical care. Results. The estimated return on investment from $1 invested in county departments of public health in California ranges from $67.07 to $88.21. Conclusions. The very large estimated return on investment for California county departments of public health relative to the return on investment for selected aspects of medical care suggests that public health is a wise investment. PMID:27310339

  12. A erosividade das chuvas em Fortaleza (CE: I - distribuição, probabilidade de ocorrência e período de retorno - 1ª aproximação Rainfall erosivity in Fortaleza, Ceará State, Brazil: I - distribution, probability of occurrence and return period - 1st approximation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. S. Dias

    2003-04-01

    Loss Equation to predict erosion losses and for conservation planning requires an evaluation of index values of local rainfall erosivity. As a contribution to knowledge on these indexes in the coastal zone of Ceará State, the objectives of this study were: (a to determine the R factor and the annual EI30 index values, its monthly distribution, probability of occurrence and return periods in Fortaleza, Ceará State, Brazil for the period of 1962 to 1981, and (b to create a data bank that allows, by a subsequent analysis, the assessment of correlation between the EI30 index and monthly rainfall amounts in order to simplify the index calculation and to update its values for the years 1982 to 2000. Total rainfall kinetic energy, uniform intensities, maximum 30 minutes intensity and the EI30 index for individual rainstorms were determined on 7,300 daily rain gauge charts from 1962 to 1981, available at the Meteorological Station of the Federal University of Ceará, in Fortaleza. The distribution frequency for the maximum individual and annual EI30 values and their return periods were calculated and plotted on curves of occurrence probability of these values. Over the 20 years period, the R factor found in Fortaleza was 6,774 in a range from 2,237 to 12,881 MJ mm (ha h y-1 and this average annual value is expected to occur, or to be exceeded, at least once in 2.2 years with an occurrence probability of 46 %. Maximum individual EI30 values estimated for return periods of 2, 5, 20, 50 and 100 years were 1,363, 2,415, 3,783, 5,950 and 8,000 MJ mm (ha h-1, respectively. Distribution of the local erosivity showed that 97 % of the annual EI30 occurs in the first semester of the year. Highest soil and water losses are to be expected during the months of February to May, since 70 % of the annual erosivity index value occurs in this quarter of the year, when conventional tillage is used for seedbed preparation and the canopy is incipient.

  13. Beltzville Lake Condition Report, Dam, Outlet Works and Spillway, Periodic Inspection Reports Number 3 and 4, September 1972 and August 1973.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1974-06-01

    Service Bridge 34 Elevation and Structural Details - Spillway Bridge Appendix B List of Attendees - Periodic Inspections Nos. 3 & 4 0 d U c 0 0 4) ) W S...pressure cells with Casagrande- type open piezometers since these instruments appear to provide more serviceability and reliability. .1it. the exception of...ir.stallation of ten additional surface settlement pipes was recommetded 1-.-d adopted. in a. ,(,- lance with the inspection recommended in Fesign Yemorandlur c

  14. Evolution of periodicity in periodical cicadas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ito, Hiromu; Kakishima, Satoshi; Uehara, Takashi; Morita, Satoru; Koyama, Takuya; Sota, Teiji; Cooley, John R; Yoshimura, Jin

    2015-09-14

    Periodical cicadas (Magicicada spp.) in the USA are famous for their unique prime-numbered life cycles of 13 and 17 years and their nearly perfectly synchronized mass emergences. Because almost all known species of cicada are non-periodical, periodicity is assumed to be a derived state. A leading hypothesis for the evolution of periodicity in Magicicada implicates the decline in average temperature during glacial periods. During the evolution of periodicity, the determinant of maturation in ancestral cicadas is hypothesized to have switched from size dependence to time (period) dependence. The selection for the prime-numbered cycles should have taken place only after the fixation of periodicity. Here, we build an individual-based model of cicadas under conditions of climatic cooling to explore the fixation of periodicity. In our model, under cold environments, extremely long juvenile stages lead to extremely low adult densities, limiting mating opportunities and favouring the evolution of synchronized emergence. Our results indicate that these changes, which were triggered by glacial cooling, could have led to the fixation of periodicity in the non-periodical ancestors.

  15. Corporate Governance and Equity Returns

    OpenAIRE

    Uchida, Shigeru

    2012-01-01

    This paper analyses the relationship between corporate governance and equity returns from the small investors view point. A primary survey has been conducted to gather the data required to examine the link. Preliminary result of the study shows that the four elements of governance: board structure, transparency, fairness and responsibility are positively related with equity returns.

  16. [Psychiatric Inpatient Treatment and Return to Work].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mernyi, Lena; Hölzle, Patricia; Hamann, Johannes

    2017-05-12

    Objective People with mental diseases have a high risk of unemployment and they have only limited access to the labor market. The return to work is often associated with fears.The present study aims to provide an overview of the number of hospitalized psychiatric patients with permanent employment. Moreover it should give an insight into the process of return to work, the experiences patients gain and the support they receive. Methods In the participating clinics we measured the number of patients with permanent employment. The main inclusion criteria for further survey were the status of permanent employment and age between 18 and 65. The participating patients were interviewed on two occasions, at the time of inclusion and 3 months after the patient was discharged. The questions addressed working conditions, job satisfaction and the process of return-to-work. For statistical analysis, descriptive statistics (frequencies, means, standard deviations) were used. Results Only 21 % of n = 815 inpatients of the participating hospitals were permanently employed. Many patients did not return to work after being discharged. In many cases the interviewed patients saw a connection between their job and their current episode of illness. In this context patients reported unsatisfying workplace conditions such as long working hours, bad work organization and social conflicts. Conclusions For mentally ill patients, the employment rate in the primary labor market is devastating low. After psychiatric inpatient treatment patients are at high risk to lose their jobs. In order to prevent this development, work-related stress factors should be discussed with inpatients at an early stage and support should be provided during the return-to-work-process. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

  17. The behavior of matter under nonequilibrium conditions: Fundamental aspects and applications in energy-oriented problems: Progress report for period September 1984--November 1987

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prigogine, I.

    1987-01-01

    This report briefly discusses progress on the following topics: state selection dynamics; polymerization under nonequilibrium conditions; inhomogeneous fluctuations in hydrodynamics and in completely mixed reactors; homoclinic bifurcations and mixed-mode oscillations; intrinsic randomness and spontaneous symmetry breaking in explosive systems; and microscopic means of irreversibility

  18. Many Healthy Returns

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    International travel is usually very safe but there are things you should do to stay safe and healthy. Experts show you how to avoid problems when visiting developing nations. This includes being cautious about the food you eat and the water you drink, and to be aware of vehicles and road conditions to prevent problems.

  19. Initial conditions of urban permeable surfaces in rainfall-runoff models using Horton’s infiltration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Davidsen, Steffen; Löwe, Roland; Høegh Ravn, Nanna

    2017-01-01

    Infiltration is a key process controlling runoff, but varies depending on antecedent conditions. This study provides estimates on initial conditions for urban permeable surfaces via continuous simulation of the infiltration capacity using historical rain data. An analysis of historical rainfall...... records show that accumulated rainfall prior to large rain events does not depend on the return period of the event. Using an infiltration-runoff model we found that for a typical large rain storm, antecedent conditions in general lead to reduced infiltration capacity both for sandy and clayey soils...... and that there is substantial runoff for return periods above 1–10 years....

  20. Cells structure peculiarities of posterity testicle epithelium, when posterity was developing after using selenium-containing preparation in chronic irradiation condition in early ontogenesis period

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krasnova, I.A.; Gajdukevich, E.G.; Banetskaya, N.V.; Amvros'ev, A.P.

    2002-01-01

    Female rats 4 month old were receiving sodium selenite (0.15 mg/kg) and vitamin E (5 mg/kg) daily during 10 days. After coupling, pregnant animals were irradiated with dose 3.1*10 -7 Gy/s during all pregnancy period and 16 days after birth with posterity. Posterity 30-40 days old and 6 month old was decapitated and testicles were investigated. Results of morphological and cytogenetic analysis of posterity testicle epithelium cells testify to radiation modification peculiarities of selenium-containing preparation

  1. Leaching of cadmium, chromium, copper, lead, and zinc from two slag dumps with different environmental exposure periods under dynamic acidic condition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Zhisheng; Liu, Taoze; Yang, Yuangen; Jackson, Daniel

    2014-06-01

    Over the past few decades, zinc smelting activities in Guizhou, China have produced numerous slag dumps, which are often dispersed on roadsides and hill slopes throughout the region. During periods of acid rain, these exposed slags release heavy metals into surface water bodies. A column leaching study was designed to test the potential release of the heavy metals cadmium (Cd), chromium (Cr), copper (Cu), lead (Pb), and zinc (Zn) under simulated acid rain events. Two slags with varying environmental exposure periods were packed in columns and subjected to leaching solutions of pH 3.5, 5.5, or DI H2O at intervals of 1, 7, 14, 28, 56d. Pulse concentrations of Cd in leachate were found above 5μg/L, Cr, Pb, and Zn >10μg/L, whereas, Cu reached 10μg/L. After five leaching events, the leachability (percentage of cumulative heavy metal leached after five leaching events as in its respective total concentration in slags) of Cd was 0.05 percent and 0.035 percent from the old and young slag, respectively. Cr (0.035 percent and 0.05 percent) was greater than Cu (0.002 percent and 0.005 percent) and Zn (0.006 percent and 0.003 percent), while the lowest leachability was observed for Pb (0.0005 percent and 0.0002 percent) from the old and young slags, respectively. Reaction rates (release amount of heavy metals in certain period of leaching) of heavy metals in the leachates demonstrated the sequence of Zn>Cr>Cd, Cu>Pb. Leaching release of heavy metals was jointly affected by the pH of leaching solution and mineral composition of slags (including chemical forms of Cd, Cr, Cu, Pb, and Zn). Environmental exposure period of slags, resulting in the alteration of minerals, could affect the release process of heavy metals in leaching as well. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. The role of lenders' trust in determining borrowing conditions for sovereign debt: An analysis of one-period government bonds with default risk

    OpenAIRE

    Guo, Yanling

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, the author considers the sovereign debt in the form of one-period government bonds with default risk, which can be purchased by and traded among domestic and foreign investors. She shows that the weight assigned to the lenders' interest by the borrowing government at the time of debt repayment, which captures the lenders' trust in the government's propensity to repay the debt and is denoted as », also determines the default risk: a higher » means a lower default risk ceteris pa...

  3. Factor Structure in Commodity Futures Return and Volatility

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christoffersen, Peter; Lunde, Asger; Olesen, Kasper Vinther

    Using data on more than 750 million futures trades during 2004-2013, we analyze eight stylized facts of commodity price and volatility dynamics in the post financialization period. We pay particular attention to the factor structure in returns and volatility and to commodity market integration...... with the equity market. We find evidence of a factor structure in daily commodity futures returns. However, the factor structure in daily commodity futures volatility is even stronger than in returns. When computing model-free realized commodity betas with the stock market we find that they were high during 2008......-2010 but have since returned to the pre-crisis level close to zero. The common factor in commodity volatility is nevertheless clearly related to stock market volatility. We conclude that, while commodity markets appear to again be segmented from the equity market when only returns are considered, commodity...

  4. Water Quality Conditions Monitored at the Corps’ Big Bend Project in South Dakota during the 3-Year Period 2008 through 2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-11-01

    macrophytes) remove CO2 from the water to form organic matter through photosynthesis during the day. During the night when aquatic plants respire and release...high discharges. Anaerobic conditions enhance growth of certain bacteria while aeration facilitates the use of bacterial food sources...Microorganisms, bacteria in particular, are responsible for mobilization of contaminants from sediments. 2.2.3.2 Photosynthesis Oxygen is a by-product

  5. Carbon and nitrogen partitioning during the post-anthesis period is conditioned by N fertilisation and sink strength in three cereals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aranjuelo, I; Cabrera-Bosquet, L; Araus, J L; Nogués, S

    2013-01-01

    Further knowledge of the processes conditioning nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) is of great relevance to crop productivity. The aim of this paper was characterise C and N partitioning during grain filling and their implications for NUE. Cereals such as bread wheat (Triticum aestivum L. cv Califa sur), triticale (× Triticosecale Wittmack cv. Imperioso) and tritordeum (× Tritordeum Asch. & Graebn line HT 621) were grown under low (LN, 5 mm NH(4) NO(3)) and high (HN, 15 mm NH(4)NO(3)) N conditions. We conducted simultaneous double labelling ((12)CO(2) and (15)NH(4) (15)NO(3)) in order to characterise C and N partitioning during grain filling. Although triticale plants showed the largest total and ear dry matter values in HN conditions, the large investment in shoot and root biomass negatively affected ear NUE. Tritordeum was the only genotype that increased NUE in both N treatments (NUE(total)), whereas in wheat, no significant effect was detected. N labelling revealed that N fertilisation during post-anthesis was more relevant for wheat and tritordeum grain filling than for triticale. The study also revealed that the investments of C and N in flag leaves and shoots, together with the 'waste' of photoassimilates in respiration, conditioned the NUE of plants, and especially under LN. These results suggest that C and N use by these plants needs to be improved in order to increase ear C and N sinks, especially under LN. It is also remarkable that even though tritordeum shows the largest increase in NUE, the low yield of this cereal limits its agronomic value. © 2012 German Botanical Society and The Royal Botanical Society of the Netherlands.

  6. Many Healthy Returns

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2010-02-08

    International travel is usually very safe but there are things you should do to stay safe and healthy. Experts show you how to avoid problems when visiting developing nations. This includes being cautious about the food you eat and the water you drink, and to be aware of vehicles and road conditions to prevent problems.  Created: 2/8/2010 by National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Disease (NCEZID).   Date Released: 2/8/2010.

  7. The Individual Economic Returns to Volunteering in Work Life

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Qvist, Hans-Peter; Munk, Martin David

    2018-01-01

    This article examines the individual economic returns to volunteering during different stages of working life. The article uses a unique panel dataset created by combining rich survey data from Denmark with information on wages from administrative registers covering the period from 2004 to 2012....... Applying a two-way fixed effects regression model that controls for both period-specific and individual-specific effects, the article finds that for labour market entrants and for people in the early stages of their working life, an additional year of volunteer work experience yields a significant positive...... return. However, the economic returns to volunteer work experience decrease as a function of professional labour market experience. For people with more than six years of professional labour market experience, the economic returns to volunteer work experience are insignificant. On these grounds...

  8. Relative bioequivalence evaluation of two oral atomoxetine hydrochloride capsules: a single dose, randomized, open-label, 2-period crossover study in healthy Chinese volunteers under fasting conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shang, D-W; Guo, W; Zhou, F-C; Wang, X-P; Li, A-N; Zhang, L; Li, W-B; Lu, W; Wang, C-Y

    2013-11-01

    To evaluate the bioequivalence of a new formulation of atomoxetine hydrochloride (CAS 82248-59-7) capsules (test) and an available branded capsules (reference) after administration of a single 40 mg dose, randomized, open-label, 2-period crossover study was conducted in 22 healthy male Chinese subjects with a 1-week wash-out period. This study was designed for/the Honglin Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd and contracted to be done by the Beijing Anding Hospital in order to satisfy Chinese regulatory requirements to allow marketing of this generic product and performed according to the criteria of SFDA. Blood samples were collected before and 0.25, 0.5, 1, 1.5, 2, 3, 4, 6, 9, 12, 16 and 24 h after drug administration. Plasma concentrations were determined by high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) with UV detection. A non-compartmental method was used to calculate the pharmacokinetic parameters and evaluate bioequivalence of the 2 formulations. The 90% confidence interval (CI) of the ratios (test/reference) of atomoxetine for AUC0-24, AUC0-∞ and Cmax were 100.9% (93.6-108.8%), 103.1% (95.1-111.7%) and 105.2% (92.8-119.4%), respectively, which fell within the interval of 80-125% and 75-133%. No clinically significant changes or abnormalities were noted in laboratory data and vital signs. From these results it can be concluded that the test formulation of atomoxetine capsules met the regulatory criterion for bioequivalence to the reference formulation. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

  9. The Impact of Capital Structure on Stock Returns: International Evidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Reza TAHMOORESPOUR

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available This study examines the relationship between capital structure and stock returns of firms in the following eight countries in the Asia Pacific regionfor a period of 22 years from 1990 to 2012. The methodology is Panel Regression. The results indicate that the effect of capital structure depends on the nature of industry as well as market. In Australia, China, and Korea, return of companies in the Basic Material industry have negative relationship with debt to common equity. Long term debt to common equity positively affects the return of firms in Australia and Korea in the Basic Material industry.

  10. Epidemiological aspects of influenza A related to climatic conditions during and after a pandemic period in the city of Salvador, northeastern Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosangela de Castro Silva

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available During the influenza pandemic of 2009, the A(H1N1pdm09, A/H3N2 seasonal and influenza B viruses were observed to be co-circulating with other respiratory viruses. To observe the epidemiological pattern of the influenza virus between May 2009-August 2011, 467 nasopharyngeal aspirates were collected from children less than five years of age in the city of Salvador. In addition, data on weather conditions were obtained. Indirect immunofluorescence, real-time transcription reverse polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR, and sequencing assays were performed for influenza virus detection. Of all 467 samples, 34 (7% specimens were positive for influenza A and of these, viral characterisation identified Flu A/H3N2 in 25/34 (74% and A(H1N1pdm09 in 9/34 (26%. Influenza B accounted for a small proportion (0.8% and the other respiratory viruses for 27.2% (127/467. No deaths were registered and no pattern of seasonality or expected climatic conditions could be established. These observations are important for predicting the evolution of epidemics and in implementing future anti-pandemic measures.

  11. Investment Returns and Economic Fundamentals in International Art Markets

    OpenAIRE

    Renneboog, L.D.R.; Spaenjers, C.

    2014-01-01

    Abstract: Works of art are neither easily tradable across borders, nor evaluated according to globally identical standards. We examine geographical segmentation and its effects on price formation and returns in the international art auction market. We find (i) a close connection between the country of sale and the type (e.g., nationality) of artworks sold; (ii) substantial international variation in average returns to art investments over the period 1971-2007; (iii) an impact of both global a...

  12. Inactive nurses in Taiwan: human capital, intention to return to hospital nursing, and incentives for returning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Hsing-Yi; Tang, Fu-In; Chen, I-Ju; Yin, Teresa J C; Chen, Chu-Chieh; Yu, Shu

    2016-04-01

    To investigate inactive nurses' human capital, intention to return to hospital nursing and incentives for returning. Few studies have discussed the loss of human capital with regard to inactive nurses and how to attract them to return to clinical work. Systematic random sampling was used, with 328 subjects completing the mailed questionnaires, resulting in a response rate of 25.4%. Inactive nurses not only had moderate to high human capital (average years of nursing experience was 10.29, with moderate to high levels of nursing professional commitment and nursing competence) and were young. Forty-three percent of subjects reported intending to return to hospital nursing. Sufficient nurse staffing, greater safety in the working environment, and re-entry preparation programmes were incentives for returning. Recruiting inactive nurses back to hospital work is vital and feasible as inactive nurses had a moderate to high degree of human capital. The most feasible way is offering reasonable working conditions, in particular, providing sufficient staffing, a safe working environment and re-entry preparation programmes. The findings confirm the human capital of inactive nurses and provide concrete directions for nursing managers to follow when recruiting inactive nurses to hospital nursing. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  13. Polar motion as boundary condition in an adaptive Kalman filter approach for the determination of period and damping of the Chandler oscillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seitz, F.; Kirschner, S.; Neubersch, D.

    2012-12-01

    Earth rotation has been monitored using space geodetic techniques since many decades. The geophysical interpretation of observed time series of Earth rotation parameters (ERP) polar motion and length-of-day is commonly based on numerical models that describe and balance variations of angular momentum in various subsystems of the Earth. Naturally, models are dependent on geometrical, rheological and physical parameters. Many of these are weakly determined from other models or observations. In our study we present an adaptive Kalman filter approach for the improvement of parameters of the dynamic Earth system model DyMEG which acts as a simulator of ERP. In particular we focus on the improvement of the pole tide Love number k2. In the frame of a sensitivity analysis k2 has been identified as one of the most crucial parameters of DyMEG since it directly influences the modeled Chandler oscillation. At the same time k2 is one of the most uncertain parameters in the model. Our simulations with DyMEG cover a period of 60 years after which a steady state of k2 is reached. The estimate for k2, accounting for the anelastic response of the Earth's mantle and the ocean, is 0.3531 + 0.0030i. We demonstrate that the application of the improved parameter k2 in DyMEG leads to significantly better results for polar motion than the original value taken from the Conventions of the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service (IERS).

  14. The development of AIDS or AIDS-related conditions in a cohort of HIV antibody-positive homosexual men during a 3-year follow-up period

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, C; Kolby, P; Sindrup, J

    1989-01-01

    One hundred and thirty-three homosexual men seropositive for the antibody against human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) were enrolled in a prospective study in 1984-85. The 3-year cumulative incidences of the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) and AIDS-related conditions, by life-table analyses...... with the development of AIDS. There was no association between disease progression and persistent generalized lymphadenopathy. When adjusted to the probable year of infection, these results are in accordance with previous cohort studies. It is concluded that most, or all, subjects seropositive for HIV will develop......, were 18% and 34%. The cumulative incidence of immune deficiency defined as CD4 lymphocytes less than 0.5 x 10(9) l-1 was 70% at 3 years. Absence of antibodies to p24 antigen, HIV antigenaemia, CD4 lymphocytes less than 0.3 x 10 l-1 and elevated serum level of IgA were significantly associated...

  15. Bereaved Employee: Returning to Work

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Work Working Through Grief About Us The Bereaved Employee: Returning to Work By Helen Fitzgerald, CT After ... One employer called a grief therapist to help employees after a co-worker reported the death of ...

  16. Total anomalous pulmonary venous return

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... pulmonary venous return, x-ray References Fraser CD, Kane LC. Congenital heart disease. In: Townsend CM Jr, ... 62. Review Date 10/17/2017 Updated by: Michael A. Chen, MD, PhD, Associate Professor of Medicine, ...

  17. [Conditional probability analysis between tinnitus and comorbidities in patients attending the National Rehabilitation Institute-LGII in the period 2012-2013].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gómez Toledo, Verónica; Gutiérrez Farfán, Ileana; Verduzco-Mendoza, Antonio; Arch-Tirado, Emilio

    Tinnitus is defined as the conscious perception of a sensation of sound that occurs in the absence of an external stimulus. This audiological symptom affects 7% to 19% of the adult population. The aim of this study is to describe the associated comorbidities present in patients with tinnitus usingjoint and conditional probability analysis. Patients of both genders, diagnosed with unilateral or bilateral tinnitus, aged between 20 and 45 years, and had a full computerised medical record, were selected. Study groups were formed on the basis of the following clinical aspects: 1) audiological findings; 2) vestibular findings; 3) comorbidities such as, temporomandibular dysfunction, tubal dysfunction, otosclerosis and, 4) triggering factors of tinnitus noise exposure, respiratory tract infection, use of ototoxic and/or drugs. Of the patients with tinnitus, 27 (65%) reported hearing loss, 11 (26.19%) temporomandibular dysfunction, and 11 (26.19%) with vestibular disorders. When performing the joint probability analysis, it was found that the probability that a patient with tinnitus having hearing loss was 2742 0.65, and 2042 0.47 for bilateral type. The result for P (A ∩ B)=30%. Bayes' theorem P (AiB) = P(Ai∩B)P(B) was used, and various probabilities were calculated. Therefore, in patients with temporomandibulardysfunction and vestibular disorders, a posterior probability of P (Aі/B)=31.44% was calculated. Consideration should be given to the joint and conditional probability approach as tools for the study of different pathologies. Copyright © 2016 Academia Mexicana de Cirugía A.C. Publicado por Masson Doyma México S.A. All rights reserved.

  18. Simulated responses of streams and ponds to groundwater withdrawals and wastewater return flows in southeastern Massachusetts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlson, Carl S.; Walter, Donald A.; Barbaro, Jeffrey R.

    2015-12-21

    Water use, such as withdrawals, wastewater return flows, and interbasin transfers, can alter streamflow regimes, water quality, and the integrity of aquatic habitat and affect the availability of water for human and ecosystem needs. To provide the information needed to determine alteration of streamflows and pond water levels in southeastern Massachusetts, existing groundwater models of the Plymouth-Carver region and western (Sagamore flow lens) and eastern (Monomoy flow lens) Cape Cod were used to delineate subbasins and simulate long-term average and average monthly streamflows and pond levels for a series of water-use conditions. Model simulations were used to determine the extent to which streamflows and pond levels were altered by comparing simulated streamflows and pond levels under predevelopment conditions with streamflows and pond levels under pumping only and pumping with wastewater return flow conditions. The pumping and wastewater return flow rates used in this study are the same as those used in previously published U.S. Geological Survey studies in southeastern Massachusetts and represent the period from 2000 to 2005. Streamflow alteration for the nontidal portions of streams in southeastern Massachusetts was evaluated within and at the downstream outlets of 78 groundwater subbasins delineated for this study. Evaluation of streamflow alteration at subbasin outlets is consistent with the approach used by the U.S. Geological Survey for the topographically derived subbasins in the rest of Massachusetts.

  19. Effects of postretrieval-extinction learning on return of contextually controlled cued fear.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meir Drexler, Shira; Merz, Christian J; Hamacher-Dang, Tanja C; Marquardt, Veronica; Fritsch, Nathalie; Otto, Tobias; Wolf, Oliver T

    2014-08-01

    Reactivation of an already consolidated memory makes it labile for a period of several hrs, which are required for its reconsolidation. Evidence suggests that the return of conditioned fear through spontaneous recovery, reinstatement, or renewal can be prevented by blockading this reconsolidation process using pharmacological or behavioral interventions. Postretrieval-extinction learning has been shown to prevent the return of cued fear in humans using fear-irrelevant stimuli, as well as cued and contextual fear in rodents. The effects of postretrieval extinction on human contextually controlled cued fear to fear-relevant stimuli remain unknown, and are the focus of the present study. The experimental design was based on 3 consecutive days: acquisition, reactivation and extinction, and re-extinction. For the fear conditioning, 2 zoo frames served as different contexts, 5 fear-relevant stimuli (aversive animal pictures) served as conditioned stimuli (CS), electric shocks served as unconditioned stimuli (UCS). Expectancy ratings and skin-conductance response (SCR) were used as measures of fear responses; spontaneous recovery and renewal were used as indicators of the return of fear. The expectancy ratings and SCR results indicated spontaneous recovery on the third day, regardless of retrieval prior to extinction. No robust renewal effect was seen. It is suggested that the use of fear-relevant stimuli, the context salience, or reactivation context may explain the lack of reconsolidation effect. Our study indicates that the beneficial effects of postretrieval-extinction learning are sensitive to subtle methodological changes.

  20. Time-Varying Periodicity in Intraday Volatility

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Torben Gustav; Thyrsgaard, Martin; Todorov, Viktor

    We develop a nonparametric test for deciding whether return volatility exhibits time-varying intraday periodicity using a long time-series of high-frequency data. Our null hypothesis, commonly adopted in work on volatility modeling, is that volatility follows a stationary process combined...... with a constant time-of-day periodic component. We first construct time-of-day volatility estimates and studentize the high-frequency returns with these periodic components. If the intraday volatility periodicity is invariant over time, then the distribution of the studentized returns should be identical across...... with estimating volatility moments through their sample counterparts. Critical values are computed via easy-to-implement simulation. In an empirical application to S&P 500 index returns, we find strong evidence for variation in the intraday volatility pattern driven in part by the current level of volatility...

  1. Problem Periods

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... ovary syndrome. Read our information on PCOS for teens , and see your doctor if you think you may have PCOS. Major weight loss. Girls who have anorexia will often stop having periods. When to see ...

  2. Hydroclimatic conditions preceding the March 2014 Oso landslide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henn, Brian; Cao, Qian; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.; Magirl, Christopher S.; Mass, Clifford; Bower, J. Brent; St. Laurent, Michael; Mao, Yixin; Perica, Sanja

    2015-01-01

    The 22 March 2014 Oso landslide was one of the deadliest in U.S. history, resulting in 43 fatalities and the destruction of more than 40 structures. We examine synoptic conditions, precipitation records and soil moisture reconstructions in the days, months, and years preceding the landslide. Atmospheric reanalysis shows a period of enhanced moisture transport to the Pacific Northwest beginning on 11 February 2014. The 21- to 42-day periods prior to the landslide had anomalously high precipitation; we estimate that 300-400 mm of precipitation fell at Oso in the 21 days prior to the landslide. Relative only to historical periods ending on 22 March, the return periods of these precipitation accumulations are large (25-88 years). However, relative to the largest accumulations from any time of the year (annual maxima), return periods are more modest (2-6 years). In addition to the 21-42 days prior to the landslide, there is a secondary maximum in the precipitation return periods for the 4 years preceding the landslide. Reconstructed soil moisture was anomalously high prior to the landslide, with a return period that exceeded 40 years about a week before the event.

  3. Return Migration and Working Choices

    OpenAIRE

    TANI, Massimiliano; MAHUTEAU, Stéphane

    2008-01-01

    Collective Action to Support the Reintegration of Return Migrants in their Country of Origin (MIREM) This paper uses the recent survey carried out in the framework of the MIREM project on returnees to Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia and studies the duration of emigration and the labour force status upon returning. The results suggest that age and the year of emigration play a central role in the migration decision, but they do not support the hypothesis that the duration of migration is deter...

  4. Capital Structure and Stock Returns

    OpenAIRE

    Ivo Welch

    2002-01-01

    U.S. corporations do not issue and repurchase debt and equity to counteract the mechanistic effects of stock returns on their debt-equity ratios. Thus over one- to five-year horizons, stock returns can explain about 40 percent of debt ratio dynamics. Although corporate net issuing activity is lively and although it can explain 60 percent of debt ratio dynamics (long-term debt issuing activity being most capital structurerelevant), corporate issuing motives remain largely a mystery. When stock...

  5. [Organising a successful return home].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mézière, Anthony

    Discharge from hospital is a major component of the quality and efficiency of the healthcare system. The failures of the return home of elderly people testify to the difficulties of applying guidelines in the area of hospital discharge. The action plan decided in the hospital for a successful return home can be jeopardised for personal, relational, functional and structural reasons originating from the different players involved in the hospital discharge. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  6. Return Migration as Failure or Success?: The Determinants of Return Migration Intentions Among Moroccan Migrants in Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Haas, Hein; Fokkema, Tineke; Fihri, Mohamed Fassi

    Different migration theories generate competing hypotheses with regard to determinants of return migration. While neoclassical migration theory associates migration to the failure to integrate at the destination, the new economics of labour migration sees return migration as the logical stage after migrants have earned sufficient assets and knowledge and to invest in their origin countries. The projected return is then likely to be postponed for sustained or indefinite periods if integration is unsuccessful. So, from an indication or result of integration failure return is rather seen as a measure of success. Drawing on recent survey data ( N  = 2,832), this article tests these hypotheses by examining the main determinants of return intention among Moroccan migrants across Europe. The results indicate that structural integration through labour market participation, education and the maintenance of economic and social ties with receiving countries do not significantly affect return intentions. At the same time, investments and social ties to Morocco are positively related, and socio-cultural integration in receiving countries is negatively related to return migration intentions. The mixed results corroborate the idea that there is no uniform process of (return) migration and that competing theories might therefore be partly complementary.

  7. Painful periods (dysmenorrhea) (image)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Primary dysmenorrhea is a normal cramping of the lower abdomen caused by hormone-induced uterine contractions before the period. Secondary dysmenorrhea may be caused by abnormal conditions such as ...

  8. Planetary Protection for LIFE-Sample Return from Enceladus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsou, Peter; Yano, Hajime; Takano, Yoshinori; McKay, David; Takai, Ken; Anbar, Ariel; Baross, J.

    ]. Current Plan: At the 1st flyby of Enceladus at high plume altitude (~150 km), we would survey the status of the plume and jets by making in situ measurements of the gas and dust densities, compositions, and velocities. We would also collect solid ice/volatile samples based upon prior ground planning. The 2nd and final flyby (determined via optimal trajectory from the 1st flyby) will be conducted at low altitude (~20 km), and would perform in situ measurements and collect solid ice and volatile samples. During the 5 year return cruise, we would maintain the samples in their captured state (frozen) under desiccating conditions of low temperature and pressure. After a direct Earth reentry, we would transport the frozen samples from the sample return capsule into a sealed sample transport container, which would then be transported to a higher Biosafety Level (BSL) facility from JAMSTEC (Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology) for sample return capsule de-integration and sample distribution. Planetary Protection: Several options for sample return have been conceived and some even demonstrated on previous flight missions (STARDUST, Genesis and Hayabusa). To date, a flight qualified sample containment system does not exist in the US, and it would be cost prohibitive to flight-qualify such a system for use by LIFE under a Discovery Program. Harsh sterilization of the samples would destroy valuable molecular information, defeating the very purpose of returning samples to assess the habitability of Enceladus. The LIFE team has found a viable approach by teaming with JAXA/ISAS. Their Hayabusa II sample containment is a third generation device that can be further improved to meet these NASA and COSPAR planetary protection requirements in an Integrated Sample Subsystem for LIFE. Another aspect of LIFE is the initial de-integration and certification of the returned samples in a higher BSL facility. JAMSTEC is the world’s leading oceanography organization. They are

  9. Net returns, fiscal risks, and the optimal patient mix for a profit-maximizing hospital.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ozatalay, S; Broyles, R

    1987-10-01

    As is well recognized, the provisions of PL98-21 not only transfer financial risks from the Medicare program to the hospital but also induce institutions to adjust the diagnostic mix of Medicare beneficiaries so as to maximize net income or minimize the net loss. This paper employs variation in the set of net returns as the sole measure of financial risk and develops a model that identifies the mix of beneficiaries that maximizes net income, subject to a given level of risk. The results indicate that the provisions of PL98-21 induce the institution to deny admission to elderly patients presenting conditions for which the net return is relatively low and the variance in the cost per case is large. Further, the paper suggests that the treatment of beneficiaries at a level commensurate with previous periods or the preferences of physicians may jeopardize the viability and solvency of Medicare-dependent hospitals.

  10. Groundwater flow modeling of periods with temperate climate conditions for use in a safety assessment of a repository for spent nuclear fuel - 59154

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Joyce, Steven; Hartley, Lee; Simpson, Trevor

    2012-01-01

    Document available in abstract form only. Full text of publication follows: As a part of the license application for a final repository for spent nuclear fuel, the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) has prepared a safety report (SR-Site) that assesses the long-term radiological safety after closure of a repository located at 500 m depth in the Forsmark area, c. 120 km north of Stockholm. The movement and composition of groundwater affect both the key pathways for radionuclide migration and the performance of engineered barriers, and hence are important issues that have to be considered and modelled as part of quantitative assessment calculations. This presentation describes the groundwater flow modelling studies that have been performed to represent the post-closure hydrogeological and hydrochemical situations during temperate climate conditions, and how these are used to support safety assessment calculations and arguments. The collation and implementation of onsite hydrogeological and hydrogeochemical data from the surface based site investigations at Forsmark are used as the basis for defining a reference case for the natural hydrogeological situation at the site (hydrogeological base case). Areas of uncertainty within the current site understanding and the engineered system are examined by a series of flow model variants

  11. Return of the cadaver

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krähenbühl, Swenn Maxence; Čvančara, Paul; Stieglitz, Thomas; Bonvin, Raphaël; Michetti, Murielle; Flahaut, Marjorie; Durand, Sébastien; Deghayli, Lina; Applegate, Lee Ann; Raffoul, Wassim

    2017-01-01

    Abstract Successful Plastic Surgery Residency training is subjected to evolving society pressure of lower hourly work weeks imposed by external committees, labor laws, and increased public awareness of patient care quality. Although innovative measures for simulation training of surgery are appearing, there is also the realization that basic anatomy training should be re-enforced and cadaver dissection is of utmost importance for surgical techniques. In the development of new technology for implantable neurostimulatory electrodes for the management of phantom limb pain in amputee patients, a design of a cadaveric model has been developed with detailed steps for innovative transfascicular insertion of electrodes. Overall design for electrode and cable implantation transcutaneous was established and an operating protocol devised. Microsurgery of the nerves of the upper extremities for interfascicular electrode implantation is described for the first time. Design of electrode implantation in cadaver specimens was adapted with a trocar delivery of cables and electrodes transcutaneous and stabilization of the electrode by suturing along the nerve. In addition, the overall operating arena environment with specific positions of the multidisciplinary team necessary for implantable electrodes was elaborated to assure optimal operating conditions and procedures during the organization of a first-in-man implantation study. Overall importance of plastic surgery training for new and highly technical procedures is of importance and particularly there is a real need to continue actual cadaveric training due to patient variability for nerve anatomic structures. PMID:28723767

  12. Return to Chernobyl

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nosovsky, Anatolij

    1995-09-01

    Despite the catastrophic accident at the Chernobylsk 4 reactor in 1986, the Ukraine is currently expanding its nuclear industry. The government is committed to increasing the share of nuclear output to 40% of the country`s electric power and the Chernobyl plant is included in this plan. All the Chernobyl reactors were closed down at the time of the accident, but units 1, 2 and 3 had all been restarted after safety modifications by December 1987. A fire in the turbine hall of unit 2 in 1991 resulted in the closure of that reactor and precipitated a political decision to close the entire plant by 1993. The economic consequences of such action and the safe operation of the remaining two reactors led, however, to the reversal of that decision. Work is now far advanced on unit 2 for a restart in 1996 and the management wants to upgrade all three reactors according to IAEA guidelines. Nevertheless, the question of closure of the Chernobyl plant remains in the air. A conditional acceptance of closure by 2000 has been made by the Ukraine provided the shortfall in power is taken up by a new gas-fired station. International finance is being sought for decommissioning, for urgent action on the decaying sarcophagus of unit 4, and for the gas-fired plant. Closure of the plant, given the social upheaval of the accident and recent political events, could contribute to the health of the Ukrainian national psyche. (UK).

  13. Return to Chernobyl

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nosovsky, Anatolij.

    1995-01-01

    Despite the catastrophic accident at the Chernobylsk 4 reactor in 1986, the Ukraine is currently expanding its nuclear industry. The government is committed to increasing the share of nuclear output to 40% of the country's electric power and the Chernobyl plant is included in this plan. All the Chernobyl reactors were closed down at the time of the accident, but units 1, 2 and 3 had all been restarted after safety modifications by December 1987. A fire in the turbine hall of unit 2 in 1991 resulted in the closure of that reactor and precipitated a political decision to close the entire plant by 1993. The economic consequences of such action and the safe operation of the remaining two reactors led, however, to the reversal of that decision. Work is now far advanced on unit 2 for a restart in 1996 and the management wants to upgrade all three reactors according to IAEA guidelines. Nevertheless, the question of closure of the Chernobyl plant remains in the air. A conditional acceptance of closure by 2000 has been made by the Ukraine provided the shortfall in power is taken up by a new gas-fired station. International finance is being sought for decommissioning, for urgent action on the decaying sarcophagus of unit 4, and for the gas-fired plant. Closure of the plant, given the social upheaval of the accident and recent political events, could contribute to the health of the Ukrainian national psyche. (UK)

  14. Earnings Quality Measures and Excess Returns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perotti, Pietro; Wagenhofer, Alfred

    2014-06-01

    This paper examines how commonly used earnings quality measures fulfill a key objective of financial reporting, i.e., improving decision usefulness for investors. We propose a stock-price-based measure for assessing the quality of earnings quality measures. We predict that firms with higher earnings quality will be less mispriced than other firms. Mispricing is measured by the difference of the mean absolute excess returns of portfolios formed on high and low values of a measure. We examine persistence, predictability, two measures of smoothness, abnormal accruals, accruals quality, earnings response coefficient and value relevance. For a large sample of US non-financial firms over the period 1988-2007, we show that all measures except for smoothness are negatively associated with absolute excess returns, suggesting that smoothness is generally a favorable attribute of earnings. Accruals measures generate the largest spread in absolute excess returns, followed by smoothness and market-based measures. These results lend support to the widespread use of accruals measures as overall measures of earnings quality in the literature.

  15. Tempo de retorno das precipitações máximas em lavras (MG pela distribuição de valores extremos do tipo I Maximum rainfall return period by extreme values type I distribution in Lavras, Minas Gerais state, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luiz Alberto Beijo

    2005-06-01

    Full Text Available O conhecimento das precipitações máximas prováveis é de grande importância na elaboração de projetos agrícolas e de engenharia hidráulica. Tendo em vista esse fato, objetivou-se com este trabalho determinar as estimativas pontual e intervalar da precipitação diária máxima provável para os tempos de retorno de 2, 5, 10, 20, 30, 50 e 75 anos, para períodos de quinze dias, um mês e um ano na região de Lavras (MG, utilizando-se a distribuição de valores extremos do tipo I. Aplicou-se o método da máxima verossimilhança para a estimação dos parâmetros dessa distribuição, sendo os intervalos de confiança das estimativas de precipitações máximas prováveis obtidos aplicando-se técnica de reamostragem "Jackknife". Pelos resultados, verificou-se que houve um bom ajuste da distribuição para os dados para a série anual, ao passo que na série mensal, nos meses de julho e agosto, ela não se ajustou. Para a série de quinze dias, o ajuste ocorreu apenas na estação chuvosa. Pelos resultados dos intervalos de confiança, pode-se adotar valores mais adequados de precipitação máxima no dimensionamento de obras hidráulicas na região de Lavras.The knowledge of the probable maximum rainfall is very important in the elaboration of agricultural and hydraulic engineering projects. Therefore this paper aimed to determine punctual and interval estimates of the probable maximum rainfall for return periods of 2, 5, 10, 20, 30, 50 and 75 years, at region of Lavras using the extreme values type I distribution, for periods of fifteen days, one month and one year. Maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters of the distribution were worked out. Jackknife Confidence Intervals for the estimates of probable maximum rainfall were calculated. A good fitting was observed for the annual series data; but not for the monthly, series data (specifically in july and august; and for the fifteen days series data no good model was found for the

  16. Measuring the Effect of Exchange Rate Movements on Stock Market Returns Volatility: GARCH Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdelkadir BESSEBA

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to investigate the dynamic links between exchange rate fluctuations and stock market return volatility. For this purpose, we have employed a Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity model (GARCH model. Stock market returns sensitivities are found to be stronger for exchange rates, implying that exchange rate change plays an important role in determining the dynamics of the stock market returns.

  17. A conditional extreme value theory approach in value-at-risk forecasting: Evidence from Southeastern Europe and USA market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Totić Selena

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available As a consequence of the recent financial crisis, the adequacy of different Value-at-Risk (VaR methodologies was heavily questioned. Current practice in VaR assessment relies on modeling the whole distribution of returns. As an alternative, in this paper we model tail behavior of returns, and thus VaR, using conditional Extreme Value Theory (EVT, which combines EVT and GARCH methodology. Moreover, we examine the performance of conditional EVT with the daily returns of seven stock market indices, of which six are from Southeastern Europe (BelexLine, BET, BUX, CROBEX, SBITOP, SOFIX from the period of September 2004 - April 2013, and one from USA market (Standard&Poors 500 Index from the period January 1998 - April 2013. Backtesting of historical daily returns proves that conditional EVT model gives good predictions for all indices and for all confidence levels.

  18. Earnings announcements and the variability of stock returns

    OpenAIRE

    Eilifsen, Aasmund; Knivsflå, Kjell Henry; Sættem, Frode

    1999-01-01

    This paper is concerned with the dissemination process of firm-specific annual earnings information in the Norwegian capital market. We find a significant reduction in stock price volatility in the post-announcement period relative to the pre-announcement period for companies traded on the Oslo Stock Exchange in the period 1990-1995. Potential explanations for this phenomenon are tested by relating the observed return volatility to changes in the volatility of the underlying business, the spe...

  19. Sociodemographic variations in the amount, duration and cost of potentially preventable hospitalisation for chronic conditions among Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal Australians: a period prevalence study of linked public hospital data

    OpenAIRE

    Banham, David; Chen, Tenglong; Karnon, Jonathan; Brown, Alex; Lynch, John

    2017-01-01

    Objectives To determine disparities in rates, length of stay (LOS) and hospital costs of potentially preventable hospitalisations (PPH) for selected chronic conditions among Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal South Australians (SA), then examine associations with area-level socioeconomic disadvantage and remoteness. Setting Period prevalence study using linked, administrative public hospital records. Participants Participants included all SA residents in 2005–2006 to 2010–2011. Analysis focused on...

  20. Mapping of the seasonal dynamic properties of building walls in actual periodic conditions and effects produced by solar radiation incident on the outer and inner surfaces of the wall

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mazzeo, D.; Oliveti, G.; Arcuri, N.

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Dynamic thermal behaviour of building walls subjected to actual periodic loadings. • Dynamic parameters of wall in terms of energy and of heat flux are defined. • Different solar absorption coefficients and orientations of wall are considered. • On the internal surface is present or absent a shortwave radiant field. • Seasonal thermal characteristics for different plant operating regime are provided. - Abstract: In this work, the dynamic characteristics of the external walls of air-conditioned buildings subject to the joint action of periodic non-sinusoidal external and internal loadings are determined. The dynamic parameters used are the energy decrement factor, which is evaluated by means of the fluctuating heat flux in a semi-period exiting and entering the wall, the decrement factor of the maximum peak and minimum peak of the heat flux in a period and the relative time lags. The fluctuating heat flux in the wall in steady periodic regime conditions is determined with an analytical model obtained by resolving the equivalent electrical circuit. The preceding parameters are used for a study of the influence of solar radiation on the dynamic characteristics of the walls in summer and winter air-conditioning. Solar radiation is considered as operating on the external surface and on the internal surface due to the presence in the indoor environments of a shortwave radiant field. The absorbed solar heat flux by the external surface varies, modifying the solar absorption coefficient and wall orientation. Indoors, we considered a continuous operating regime of the plant and a regime with nocturnal attenuation. The results obtained, relating to 1152 different boundary conditions, were used for the construction of maps of dynamic characteristics, different on variation of the plant functioning regime and of the shortwave radiant load on the internal surface. The maps show the dependence of the decrement factors and of the time lags on variation of

  1. Effects of intraday weather changes on asset returns and volatilities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hyein Shim

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Analyzing the intraday dataset on weather and market information with the use of the extended GJR-GARCH framework, this study explores in depth the weather effects on the asset returns and volatilities of the Korean stock and derivatives markets. Our intraday analyses contribute to the existing literature by going beyond the attempt of prior studies to capture the weather effects using the average daily observations alone. The empirical results document a modest presence of the weather effect on the returns and volatilities, though the significance of its impact is found to vary across different market conditions and indices. We also find that the return and volatility respond asymmetrically to extremely good and bad weather conditions. The intraday analyses show that the weather effect on the returns and volatilities is more statistically significant at the beginning of the working day or the lunch break, indicating the intraday weather effects on the financial market.

  2. Upper Bounds for Ruin Probability with Stochastic Investment Return

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG Lihong

    2005-01-01

    Risk models with stochastic investment return are widely held in practice, as well as in more challenging research fields. Risk theory is mainly concerned with ruin probability, and a tight bound for ruin probability is the best for practical use. This paper presents a discrete time risk model with stochastic investment return. Conditional expectation properties and martingale inequalities are used to obtain both exponential and non-exponential upper bounds for the ruin probability.

  3. Estimating the Ex Ante Expected Returns to College

    OpenAIRE

    Andrew J. Hussey; Omari H. Swinton

    2011-01-01

    Rather than estimating the returns to obtaining a college degree, this paper treats the college education decision as an uncertain investment involving varying likelihoods of successful graduation. We predict earnings conditional on both graduating and not graduating from both selective and non-selective institutions, and incorporate estimated individual-specific graduation rates in calculating the ex ante expected returns from college attendance for individuals across the ability distributio...

  4. Return of vitrified residues from France to Japan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-08-01

    For more than 15 years now, COGEMA facilities in La Hague have received, stored and reprocessed spent fuel from France, Japan and other countries: Germany, Switzerland, Belgium and the Netherlands. According to contracts, COGEMA ensures the reprocessing service, consisting in separating the recyclable products (uranium and plutonium) from the wastes which are then duly conditioned and returned to their owners for final disposal. The transportation aspects of returning the reprocessed residues to Japan is presented. (K.A.)

  5. Experiences of occupational therapists returning to work after maternity leave.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parcsi, Lisa; Curtin, Michael

    2013-08-01

    Returning to work after maternity leave can be a challenging, anxious and fraught experience for women, and has been portrayed in the literature as a generally negative experience. Interestingly, although occupational therapists were predominantly women, no research was found focussing on their experiences of returning to work after maternity leave. The aim of this research was to gain an insight into occupational therapists' experiences of returning to work following maternity leave. Principles of interpretive phenomenological analysis were used to explore the individual experiences of six Australian occupational therapists returning to work after a period of maternity leave. Individual semi-structured interviews lasting up to 90 minutes were conducted. Interviews were audio-recorded, transcribed and then analysed. Two major themes emerged from the analysis of interviews: compromise and feeling valued. The experience of returning to work was a process of compromise in which women found strategies to cope with their changing roles and demands, to find a balance between home and work life. The women wanted to feel valued by their managers and co-workers, as this enabled them to feel comfortable and confident with some of the compromises they made. Occupational therapists returning to work after maternity leave will make compromises so that they can balance their home and work life. Occupational therapists value managers and co-workers who understand the compromises women make when returning to work following maternity leave and who create a supportive workplace that acknowledges and values their contribution. © 2013 Occupational Therapy Australia.

  6. Weibo sentiments and stock return: A time-frequency view.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Yingying; Liu, Zhixin; Zhao, Jichang; Su, Chiwei

    2017-01-01

    This study provides new insights into the relationships between social media sentiments and the stock market in China. Based on machine learning, we classify microblogs posted on Sina Weibo, a Twitter's variant in China into five detailed sentiments of anger, disgust, fear, joy, and sadness. Using wavelet analysis, we find close positive linkages between sentiments and the stock return, which have both frequency and time-varying features. Five detailed sentiments are positively related to the stock return for certain periods, particularly since October 2014 at medium to high frequencies of less than ten trading days, when the stock return is undergoing significant fluctuations. Sadness appears to have a closer relationship with the stock return than the other four sentiments. As to the lead-lag relationships, the stock return causes Weibo sentiments rather than reverse for most of the periods with significant linkages. Compared with polarity sentiments (negative vs. positive), detailed sentiments provide more information regarding relationships between Weibo sentiments and the stock market. The stock market exerts positive effects on bullishness and agreement of microblogs. Meanwhile, agreement leads the stock return in-phase at the frequency of approximately 40 trading days, indicating that less disagreement improves certainty about the stock market.

  7. Weibo sentiments and stock return: A time-frequency view.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yingying Xu

    Full Text Available This study provides new insights into the relationships between social media sentiments and the stock market in China. Based on machine learning, we classify microblogs posted on Sina Weibo, a Twitter's variant in China into five detailed sentiments of anger, disgust, fear, joy, and sadness. Using wavelet analysis, we find close positive linkages between sentiments and the stock return, which have both frequency and time-varying features. Five detailed sentiments are positively related to the stock return for certain periods, particularly since October 2014 at medium to high frequencies of less than ten trading days, when the stock return is undergoing significant fluctuations. Sadness appears to have a closer relationship with the stock return than the other four sentiments. As to the lead-lag relationships, the stock return causes Weibo sentiments rather than reverse for most of the periods with significant linkages. Compared with polarity sentiments (negative vs. positive, detailed sentiments provide more information regarding relationships between Weibo sentiments and the stock market. The stock market exerts positive effects on bullishness and agreement of microblogs. Meanwhile, agreement leads the stock return in-phase at the frequency of approximately 40 trading days, indicating that less disagreement improves certainty about the stock market.

  8. Weibo sentiments and stock return: A time-frequency view

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Zhixin; Zhao, Jichang; Su, Chiwei

    2017-01-01

    This study provides new insights into the relationships between social media sentiments and the stock market in China. Based on machine learning, we classify microblogs posted on Sina Weibo, a Twitter’s variant in China into five detailed sentiments of anger, disgust, fear, joy, and sadness. Using wavelet analysis, we find close positive linkages between sentiments and the stock return, which have both frequency and time-varying features. Five detailed sentiments are positively related to the stock return for certain periods, particularly since October 2014 at medium to high frequencies of less than ten trading days, when the stock return is undergoing significant fluctuations. Sadness appears to have a closer relationship with the stock return than the other four sentiments. As to the lead-lag relationships, the stock return causes Weibo sentiments rather than reverse for most of the periods with significant linkages. Compared with polarity sentiments (negative vs. positive), detailed sentiments provide more information regarding relationships between Weibo sentiments and the stock market. The stock market exerts positive effects on bullishness and agreement of microblogs. Meanwhile, agreement leads the stock return in-phase at the frequency of approximately 40 trading days, indicating that less disagreement improves certainty about the stock market. PMID:28672026

  9. Abnormal Returns and Contrarian Strategies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivana Dall'Agnol

    2003-12-01

    Full Text Available We test the hypothesis that strategies which are long on portfolios of looser stocks and short on portfolios of winner stocks generate abnormal returns in Brazil. This type of evidence for the US stock market was interpreted by The Bondt and Thaler (1985 as reflecting systematic evaluation mistakes caused by investors overreaction to news related to the firm performance. We found evidence of contrarian strategies profitability for horizons from 3 months to 3 years in a sample of stock returns from BOVESPA and SOMA from 1986 to 2000. The strategies are more profitable for shorter horizons. Therefore, there was no trace of the momentum effect found by Jagadeesh and Titman (1993 for the same horizons with US data. There are remaing unexplained positive returns for contrarian strategies after accounting for risk, size, and liquidity. We also found that the strategy profitability is reduced after the Real Plan, which suggests that the Brazilian stock market became more efficient after inflation stabilization.

  10. Rehabilitation and return to sport after hamstring strain injury

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lauren N. Erickson

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Hamstring strain injuries are common among sports that involve sprinting, kicking, and high-speed skilled movements or extensive muscle lengthening-type maneuvers with hip flexion and knee extension. These injuries present the challenge of significant recovery time and a lengthy period of increased susceptibility for recurrent injury. Nearly one third of hamstring strains recur within the first year following return to sport with subsequent injuries often being more severe than the original. This high re-injury rate suggests that athletes may be returning to sport prematurely due to inadequate return to sport criteria. In this review article, we describe the epidemiology, risk factors, differential diagnosis, and prognosis of an acute hamstring strain. Based on the current available evidence, we then propose a clinical guide for the rehabilitation of acute hamstring strains and an algorithm to assist clinicians in the decision-making process when assessing readiness of an athlete to return to sport.

  11. Equity Returns and Volatilities Before and After the 2007-08 Financial Crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dedi Lidija

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the linkages among equity markets of four European countries (Germany, France, Italy, UK and the USA in terms of market returns and transmission of volatilities. We use daily exchange traded funds (ETF data from January 2002 to March 2016 and utilize both a Multivariate Autoregressive Moving Average model (MARMA and a Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity model (GARCH. We divided the data into three separate periods: before the 2007-08 financial crisis, during the crisis and after the crisis. The results show the existence of significant co-movement of returns in all three selected periods although some important differences before and after the financial crisis are noted. Findings also include marked increases in integration of the markets and thus diminishing diversification opportunities for investors. Volatilities appear to react strongly to market movements and their shocks fade away slowly in all five countries during the crisis period. There is also strong evidence of volatility spillovers particularly during and after the crisis periods.

  12. Dynamic returns of beta arbitrage

    OpenAIRE

    Nascimento, Mafalda

    2017-01-01

    This thesis studies the patterns of the abnormal returns of the beta strategy. The topic can be helpful for professional investors, who intend to achieve a better performance in their portfolios. Following the methodology of Lou, Polk, & Huang (2016), the COBAR measure is computed in order to determine the levels of beta arbitrage in the market in each point in time. It is argued that beta arbitrage activity can have impact on the returns of the beta strategy. In fact, it is demonstrated that...

  13. Sovereign Risk and Currently Returns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Della Corte, Pasquale; Sarno, Lucio; Schmeling, Maik

    We empirically investigate the relation between sovereign risk and exchange rates for a broad set of currencies. An increase in the credit default swap (CDS) spread of a country is accompanied by a significant depreciation of the exchange rate. More generally, CDS spread changes have substantial...... explanatory power for currency returns which is largely driven by shocks to global credit risk. Consistent with the notion that sovereign risk is priced, we find that a country's exposure to global credit risk forecasts excess returns to trading exchange rates as well as to trading on the volatility, skewness...

  14. Sovereign Risk and Currency Returns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Della Corte, Pasquale; Sarno, Lucio; Schmeling, Maik

    We empirically investigate the relation between sovereign risk and exchange rates for a broad set of currencies. An increase in the credit default swap (CDS) spread of a country is accompanied by a significant depreciation of the exchange rate. More generally, CDS spread changes have substantial...... explanatory power for currency returns which is largely driven by shocks to global credit risk. Consistent with the notion that sovereign risk is priced, we find that a country's exposure to global credit risk forecasts excess returns to trading exchange rates as well as to trading on the volatility, skewness...

  15. Testando empiricamente o CAPM condicional dos retornos esperados de carteiras dos mercados brasileiro, argentino e norte-americano Empirical test of the conditional CAPM model using expected returns of brazilian, argentine and north-american portfolios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elmo Tambosi Filho

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Nas últimas décadas, o modelo CAPM tem despertado grande interesse na comunidade científica. Apesar das críticas, o aprimoramento do CAPM estático, que dá origem a novos modelos dinâmicos, traz maior segurança para o investidor ao longo do ciclo de negócios. O CAPM e suas versões estáticas foram e são de grande importância em finanças. Nos dias de hoje, encontramos adaptações mais complexas do modelo CAPM, as quais nos permitem obter respostas sobre questões em finanças que por muito tempo permaneceram não solucionadas. Diante desse panorama e considerando toda essa grande discussão acerca da validade do CAPM, este trabalho procura apresentar as vantagens dos modelos condicionais em relação ao modelo estático. Para constatar tais fatos, estudar-se-ão os testes dos modelos condicionais (beta variando ao longo do tempo com e sem capital humano, que não são comumente estudados na literatura. Esses testes são convenientes para incorporar variâncias e co-variâncias que se alteram ao longo do tempo.The CAPM model has attracted great interest from the scientific community over the last decades. Despite criticism, improvement of the static CAPM has given origin to new dynamic models providing investors with more safety along the business cycles. The CAPM and the static versions continue to be of great importance in Finance and now more complex adaptations provide answers to some questions in finance for which solutions were not yet available. Therefore considering this situation and the discussion of CAPM validity, advantages of the conditional model were presented in relation to the static model. Tests of conditional models were studied where beta varies with time, COM E SEM CAPITAL HUMANO, which is not commonly studied in literature. These tests incorporate variances and covariances that change with time.

  16. Evaluation and comparison of return of investment for proposed use of solar systems in the Czech and Slovak Republic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Weiss

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the paper is to evaluate return of investment (ROI and cost savings from proposed use of solar systems for residents funded by government grants. The paper deals with proposals for solar energy systems for various use, simple calculations of payback periods of solar systems financed with subsidy and without subsidy. Apart from climatic conditions, chemical composition the of the absorber and structural elements that are made of copper, respectively aluminum and Al-Mg alloy play an important role in assessing the payback period of the investment in solar panels.

  17. Immediate extinction promotes the return of fear.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merz, Christian J; Hamacher-Dang, Tanja C; Wolf, Oliver T

    2016-05-01

    Accumulating evidence indicates that immediate extinction is less effective than delayed extinction in attenuating the return of fear. This line of fear conditioning research impacts the proposed onset of psychological interventions after threatening situations. In the present study, forty healthy men were investigated in a differential fear conditioning paradigm with fear acquisition in context A, extinction in context B, followed by retrieval testing in both contexts 24h later to test fear renewal. Differently coloured lights served as conditioned stimuli (CS): two CS (CS+) were paired with an electrical stimulation that served as unconditioned stimulus, the third CS was never paired (CS-). Extinction took place immediately after fear acquisition or 24h later. One CS+ was extinguished whereas the second CS+ remained unextinguished to control for different time intervals between fear acquisition and retrieval testing. Immediate extinction led to larger skin conductance responses during fear retrieval to both the extinguished and unextinguished CS relative to the CS-, indicating a stronger return of fear compared to delayed extinction. Taken together, immediate extinction is less potent than delayed extinction and is associated with a stronger renewal effect. Thus, the time-point of psychological interventions relative to the offset of threatening situations needs to be carefully considered to prevent relapses. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Portfolio optimization using Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lucas Pelegrin da Silva

    Full Text Available Abstract This paper investigates the efficiency of traditional portfolio optimization models when the returns of financial assets are highly volatile, e.g., in financial crises periods. We also develop alternative optimization models that combine the mean absolute deviation (MAD and the conditional value at risk (CVaR, attempting to mitigate inefficient, low return and/or high-risk, portfolios. Three methodologies for estimating the probability of the asset’s historical returns are also compared. By using historical data on the Brazilian stock market between 2004 and 2013, we analyze the efficiency of the proposed approaches. Our results show that the traditional models provide portfolios with higher returns, but our propose model are able to generate lower risk portfolios, which might be more attractive in volatile markets. In addition, we find that models that do not use equiprobable scenarios produce better results in terms of return and risk.

  19. Comet coma sample return instrument

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albee, A. L.; Brownlee, Don E.; Burnett, Donald S.; Tsou, Peter; Uesugi, K. T.

    1994-01-01

    The sample collection technology and instrument concept for the Sample of Comet Coma Earth Return Mission (SOCCER) are described. The scientific goals of this Flyby Sample Return are to return to coma dust and volatile samples from a known comet source, which will permit accurate elemental and isotopic measurements for thousands of individual solid particles and volatiles, detailed analysis of the dust structure, morphology, and mineralogy of the intact samples, and identification of the biogenic elements or compounds in the solid and volatile samples. Having these intact samples, morphologic, petrographic, and phase structural features can be determined. Information on dust particle size, shape, and density can be ascertained by analyzing penetration holes and tracks in the capture medium. Time and spatial data of dust capture will provide understanding of the flux dynamics of the coma and the jets. Additional information will include the identification of cosmic ray tracks in the cometary grains, which can provide a particle's process history and perhaps even the age of the comet. The measurements will be made with the same equipment used for studying micrometeorites for decades past; hence, the results can be directly compared without extrapolation or modification. The data will provide a powerful and direct technique for comparing the cometary samples with all known types of meteorites and interplanetary dust. This sample collection system will provide the first sample return from a specifically identified primitive body and will allow, for the first time, a direct method of matching meteoritic materials captured on Earth with known parent bodies.

  20. Phobos Sample Return: Next Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zelenyi, Lev; Martynov, Maxim; Zakharov, Alexander; Korablev, Oleg; Ivanov, Alexey; Karabadzak, George

    The Martian moons still remain a mystery after numerous studies by Mars orbiting spacecraft. Their study cover three major topics related to (1) Solar system in general (formation and evolution, origin of planetary satellites, origin and evolution of life); (2) small bodies (captured asteroid, or remnants of Mars formation, or reaccreted Mars ejecta); (3) Mars (formation and evolution of Mars; Mars ejecta at the satellites). As reviewed by Galimov [2010] most of the above questions require the sample return from the Martian moon, while some (e.g. the characterization of the organic matter) could be also answered by in situ experiments. There is the possibility to obtain the sample of Mars material by sampling Phobos: following to Chappaz et al. [2012] a 200-g sample could contain 10-7 g of Mars surface material launched during the past 1 mln years, or 5*10-5 g of Mars material launched during the past 10 mln years, or 5*1010 individual particles from Mars, quantities suitable for accurate laboratory analyses. The studies of Phobos have been of high priority in the Russian program on planetary research for many years. Phobos-88 mission consisted of two spacecraft (Phobos-1, Phobos-2) and aimed the approach to Phobos at 50 m and remote studies, and also the release of small landers (long-living stations DAS). This mission implemented the program incompletely. It was returned information about the Martian environment and atmosphere. The next profect Phobos Sample Return (Phobos-Grunt) initially planned in early 2000 has been delayed several times owing to budget difficulties; the spacecraft failed to leave NEO in 2011. The recovery of the science goals of this mission and the delivery of the samples of Phobos to Earth remain of highest priority for Russian scientific community. The next Phobos SR mission named Boomerang was postponed following the ExoMars cooperation, but is considered the next in the line of planetary exploration, suitable for launch around 2022. A

  1. Insider Trading Activities and Returns of German Blue Chips

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dagmar Linnertová

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to investigate the causality between stock returns and insider open market transactions. The Dumitrescu-Hurlin (2012 heterogeneous approach to panel Granger causality is chosen to examine the relationship. The investigation is conducted on the 30 most traded German blue chips during the period of 2006–2014. The strong causality is revealed in the one-month period. Thus, stock returns may be used to predict future insider trading activity. The strong causality between stock returns and future insider buying and selling transactions is further confirmed with three out of four employed insider trading indices. The fact of the legal insider trade (either buy or sell is more important than its volume. The reverse relationship is weak and valid only for longer time horizon of twelve months. Our results indicate that insider traders do not degrade the market efficiency in the long run.

  2. Probability distribution of extreme share returns in Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zin, Wan Zawiah Wan; Safari, Muhammad Aslam Mohd; Jaaman, Saiful Hafizah; Yie, Wendy Ling Shin

    2014-09-01

    The objective of this study is to investigate the suitable probability distribution to model the extreme share returns in Malaysia. To achieve this, weekly and monthly maximum daily share returns are derived from share prices data obtained from Bursa Malaysia over the period of 2000 to 2012. The study starts with summary statistics of the data which will provide a clue on the likely candidates for the best fitting distribution. Next, the suitability of six extreme value distributions, namely the Gumbel, Generalized Extreme Value (GEV), Generalized Logistic (GLO) and Generalized Pareto (GPA), the Lognormal (GNO) and the Pearson (PE3) distributions are evaluated. The method of L-moments is used in parameter estimation. Based on several goodness of fit tests and L-moment diagram test, the Generalized Pareto distribution and the Pearson distribution are found to be the best fitted distribution to represent the weekly and monthly maximum share returns in Malaysia stock market during the studied period, respectively.

  3. Erosividade, padrões hidrológicos, período de retorno e probabilidade de ocorrência das chuvas em São Borja, RS Erosivity, hydrological patterns, return period and probability of occurrence of rainfalls at São Borja, RS, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elemar Antonino Cassol

    2008-06-01

    "R" da USLE, foi obtido de dados pluviométricos, representados pelo coeficiente de chuva, que pode ser utilizado para regiões climáticas semelhantes que apenas dispõem de dados pluviométricos. O valor da erosividade média anual de 9.751 MJ mm ha-1 h-1 ano-1 é esperado pelo menos uma vez a cada 2,2 anos, com uma probabilidade de ocorrência de 44,9 %.The erosivity potential of rainfalls can be estimated by some indexes, among them the EI30, which is given by the product of kinetic energy (E and rainfall intensity for a 30-minute period (I30. The purpose of this study was to determine rainfall erosivity, hydrological patterns, return period and probability of occurrence of erosive rainfalls in São Borja, RS, Brazil, based on diary rainfall charts of the FEPAGRO meteorological station, from 1956 to 2003. The duration and accumulated amount of each erosive rainfall were measured, entered in a spreadsheet, digitalized and processed by CHUVEROS software, which calculated the EI30 index and the monthly and annual total erosivity, besides determining the hydrological pattern of each rainfall. Most of the annual erosivity (76 % was concentrated between October and April, in the period of soil tillage, sowing and growth of summer crops. The most notable peak in the erosive potential was observed between March and April (1,260-1,269 MJ mm ha-1 h-1, when most crops are normally in full growth, while July and August were the months of lowest erosive potential (268-271 MJ mm ha-1 h-1. Of the total erosive rainfalls 47, 25 and 28 % had advanced, intermediary and delayed patterns, respectively, while these patterns corresponded to 50, 26 and 24 %, respectively, of the mean annual volume of erosive rainfalls and to 53, 25 and 22 % of the average annual erosivity. The mean annual index of erosivity in São Borja is 9,751 MJ mm ha-1 h-1 year-1. It represents the "R" Factor of the Universal Soil Loss Equation to be used in São Borja and regions with similar rainfall pattern

  4. Barriers to return to work after burn injuries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esselman, Peter C; Askay, Shelley Wiechman; Carrougher, Gretchen J; Lezotte, Dennis C; Holavanahalli, Radha K; Magyar-Russell, Gina; Fauerbach, James A; Engrav, Loren H

    2007-12-01

    To identify barriers to return to work after burn injury as identified by the patient. A cohort study with telephone interview up to 1 year. Hospital-based burn centers at 3 national sites. Hospitalized patients (N=154) meeting the American Burn Association criteria for major burn injury, employed at least 20 hours a week at the time of injury, and with access to a telephone after discharge. Patients were contacted via telephone every 2 weeks up to 4 months, then monthly up to 1 year after discharge. A return to work survey was used to identify barriers that prevented patients from returning to work. A graphic rating scale determined the impact of each barrier. By 1 year, 79.7% of patients returned to work. Physical and wound issues were barriers early after discharge. Although physical abilities continued to be a significant barrier up to 1 year, working conditions (temperature, humidity, safety) and psychosocial factors (nightmares, flashbacks, appearance concerns) became important issues in those with long-term disability. The majority of patients return to work after a burn injury. Although physical and work conditions are important barriers, psychosocial issues need to be evaluated and treated to optimize return to work.

  5. Acute glucoregulatory and vascular outcomes of three strategies for interrupting prolonged sitting time in postmenopausal women: A pilot, laboratory-based, randomized, controlled, 4-condition, 4-period crossover trial.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacqueline Kerr

    Full Text Available Prolonged sitting is associated with cardiometabolic and vascular disease. Despite emerging evidence regarding the acute health benefits of interrupting prolonged sitting time, the effectiveness of different modalities in older adults (who sit the most is unclear.In preparation for a future randomized controlled trial, we enrolled 10 sedentary, overweight or obese, postmenopausal women (mean age 66 years ±9; mean body mass index 30.6 kg/m2 ±4.2 in a 4-condition, 4-period crossover feasibility pilot study in San Diego to test 3 different sitting interruption modalities designed to improve glucoregulatory and vascular outcomes compared to a prolonged sitting control condition. The interruption modalities included: a 2 minutes standing every 20 minutes; b 2 minutes walking every hour; and c 10 minutes standing every hour. During each 5-hr condition, participants consumed two identical, standardized meals. Blood samples, blood pressure, and heart rate were collected every 30 minutes. Endothelial function of the superficial femoral artery was measured at baseline and end of each 5-hr condition using flow-mediated dilation (FMD. Participants completed each condition on separate days, in randomized order. This feasibility pilot study was not powered to detect statistically significant differences in the various outcomes, however, analytic methods (mixed models were used to test statistical significance within the small sample size.Nine participants completed all 4 study visits, one participant completed 3 study visits and then was lost to follow up. Net incremental area under the curve (iAUC values for postprandial plasma glucose and insulin during the 5-hr sitting interruption conditions were not significantly different compared to the control condition. Exploratory analyses revealed that the 2-minute standing every 20 minutes and the 2-minute walking every hour conditions were associated with a significantly lower glycemic response to the second

  6. Thyrotoxic periodic paralysis

    OpenAIRE

    Rojith Karandode Balakrishnan; Suresh Rama Chandran; Geetha Thirumalnesan; Nedumaran Doraisamy

    2011-01-01

    This article aims at highlighting the importance of suspecting thyrotoxicosis in cases of recurrent periodic flaccid paralysis; especially in Asian men to facilitate early diagnosis of the former condition. A case report of a 28 year old male patient with recurrent periodic flaccid paralysis has been presented. Hypokalemia secondary to thyrotoxicosis was diagnosed as the cause of the paralysis. The patient was given oral potassium intervention over 24 hours. The patient showed complete recove...

  7. Gender Gap in Returns to Schooling in Palestine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daoud, Yousef

    2005-01-01

    This study provides estimates of the private returns to schooling in Palestine utilizing eight quarterly labor force surveys for 1999 and 2001. This period was chosen to investigate the differential impact of the Israeli closure policy on Palestinian male and female workers. Although gross enrollment ratios for males and females reveal little to…

  8. Virus isolation for diagnosing dengue virus infections in returning travelers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Teichmann, D.; Göbels, K.; Niedrig, M.; Sim-Brandenburg, J.-W.; Làge-Stehr, J.; Grobusch, M. P.

    2003-01-01

    Dengue fever is recognized as one of the most frequent imported acute febrile illnesses affecting European tourists returning from the tropics. In order to assess the value of virus isolation for the diagnosis of dengue fever, 70 cases of dengue fever confirmed in German travelers during the period

  9. The Volatility Effect: Lower Risk without Lower Return

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    D.C. Blitz (David); P. van Vliet (Pim)

    2007-01-01

    textabstractWe present empirical evidence that stocks with low volatility earn high risk-adjusted returns. The annual alpha spread of global low versus high volatility decile portfolios amounts to 12% over the 1986-2006 period. We also observe this volatility effect within the US, European and

  10. Hard assets : The return on rare diamonds and gems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Renneboog, L.D.R.; Spaenjers, C.

    2012-01-01

    This note examines the investment performance of diamonds and other gems (sapphires, rubies, and emeralds) over the period 1999–2010, using a novel data set of auction transactions. Over our time frame, the annualized real USD returns for white and colored diamonds equaled 6.4% and 2.9%,

  11. Hard Assets : The Returns on Rare Diamonds and Gems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Renneboog, L.D.R.; Spaenjers, C.

    2011-01-01

    This paper examines the investment performance of diamonds and other gems (sapphires, rubies, and emeralds) over the period 1999-2010, using a novel data set of auction transactions. Between 1999 and 2010, the annualized real USD returns for white and colored diamonds equaled 6.4% and 2.9%,

  12. Hard assets : The return of rare diamonds and gems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Renneboog, Luc; Spaenjers, Christophe; Grynberg, Roman; Mbayi, Letsema

    This note examines the investment performance of diamonds and other gems (sapphires, rubies, and emeralds) over the period 1999–2010, using a novel data set of auction transactions. Over our time frame, the annualized real USD returns for white and colored diamonds equaled 6.4% and 2.9%,

  13. THE INFLUENCE OF CORPORATE FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE ON SHARE RETURN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ghulam Nurul Huda

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available This study was conducted to examine the effect of financial performances of Economic Value Added (EVA, Market Value Added (MVA as well as financial ratios (Fixed Asset Turnover, Return on Investment, Debt to Equity Ratio, Price to Book Value, Total Asset Turnover on Stock Return. This study used the data of six representative palm oil companies which were listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange. The analysis models that were used included three multiple regression equations for EVA, MVA and Stock Return. The results indicate that DER significantly influences EVA and PBV, and TATO significantly influences MVA. Return Shares are significantly only affected by EVA. The company's fundamentals, especially EVA, PBV, TATO and DER were used by investors to predict the Stock Return in Indonesia Stock Exchange in 2009–2014 period. This study confirmed the previous studies that these variables are involved on regression model to predict the Stock Return. The results of the analysis of the company's financial performance with EVA and MVA and financial fundamental variables provide a better alternative picture on the achievement of the company so that the benefits in investing in the palm oil business in Indonesia can be maximally managed.Keywords: Indonesia Stock Exchange, investor, market, multiple regression, stock

  14. Investigating different factors influencing on return of private banks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pegah Motamedi

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Return of Investment has always been an interesting area of research among academics as well as investors. Although capital asset pricing model (CAPM is capable of estimating risk of investment, many people argue that CAPM is not able to predict long-term return, properly. This paper presents an empirical investigation to find the effects of different financial figures including systematic risk (Beta, size of firm, ratio of book value to market share, volume of trade and the ratio of price/earnings (P/E on return of private banks in Iran. The study gathers the necessary information over the period 2005-2011 from private banks in Iran. The study uses multiple regression technique to find the effects of mentioned variables on return of private banks. The results indicate that there are some meaningful and positive relationship between return of banks and systematic risk (Beta, size, volume of trade and P/E. The study also finds some meaningful and reverse relationship between bank return and book value on market value.

  15. Estimating the risk-return tradeoff in MENA Stock Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salim Lahmiri

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available This study employs the generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroskedastic in the mean (GARCH-M methodology to investigate the return generating process of Jordan, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA, Kuwait, and Morocco stock market indices. The tradeoff between returns and the conditional variance is found to be positive in all markets. In other words, the empirical findings show that investors are rewarded for their exposure to more risk in these financial markets. This result is consistent with both financial theory and empirical finance.

  16. 26 CFR 301.6103(j)(5)-1 - Disclosures of return information reflected on returns to officers and employees of the...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... Security Number; (iii) Annual accounting period; (iv) Principal Business Activity (PBA) code; (v) Taxable...” and Form 1065-B “U.S. Return of Income for Electing Large Partnerships” (Schedule F)— (i) Taxpayer...

  17. Financial Integration and Asset Returns

    OpenAIRE

    P Martin; H Rey

    2000-01-01

    The paper investigates the impact of financial integration on asset return, risk diversification and breadth of financial markets. We analyse a three-country macroeconomic model in which (i) the number of financial assets is endogenous; (ii) assets are imperfect substitutes; (iii) cross-border asset trade entails some transaction costs; (iv) the investment technology is indivisible. In such an environment, lower transaction costs between two financial markets translate to higher demand for as...

  18. Tick size and stock returns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onnela, Jukka-Pekka; Töyli, Juuso; Kaski, Kimmo

    2009-02-01

    Tick size is an important aspect of the micro-structural level organization of financial markets. It is the smallest institutionally allowed price increment, has a direct bearing on the bid-ask spread, influences the strategy of trading order placement in electronic markets, affects the price formation mechanism, and appears to be related to the long-term memory of volatility clustering. In this paper we investigate the impact of tick size on stock returns. We start with a simple simulation to demonstrate how continuous returns become distorted after confining the price to a discrete grid governed by the tick size. We then move on to a novel experimental set-up that combines decimalization pilot programs and cross-listed stocks in New York and Toronto. This allows us to observe a set of stocks traded simultaneously under two different ticks while holding all security-specific characteristics fixed. We then study the normality of the return distributions and carry out fits to the chosen distribution models. Our empirical findings are somewhat mixed and in some cases appear to challenge the simulation results.

  19. CAUSALITY OF WEATHER CONDITIONS IN AUSTRALIAN STOCK EQUITY RETURNS

    OpenAIRE

    Svetlana Vlady; Ekrem Tufan; Bahattin Hamarat

    2011-01-01

    This study investigates causality of weather and its impact on the The S&P/ASX All Australian 200 Index has been selected as a proxy for the Australian capital market. The index consists exclusively of Australian domiciled companies. Following previous research in behaviour finance in the area of environmental psychology, the data set covers temperature, quality temperature, wet bulb temperature, quality wet bulb temperature, humidity, pressure and vapour pressure variables. The data set is a...

  20. Quantifying Stock Return Distributions in Financial Markets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Botta, Federico; Moat, Helen Susannah; Stanley, H Eugene; Preis, Tobias

    2015-01-01

    Being able to quantify the probability of large price changes in stock markets is of crucial importance in understanding financial crises that affect the lives of people worldwide. Large changes in stock market prices can arise abruptly, within a matter of minutes, or develop across much longer time scales. Here, we analyze a dataset comprising the stocks forming the Dow Jones Industrial Average at a second by second resolution in the period from January 2008 to July 2010 in order to quantify the distribution of changes in market prices at a range of time scales. We find that the tails of the distributions of logarithmic price changes, or returns, exhibit power law decays for time scales ranging from 300 seconds to 3600 seconds. For larger time scales, we find that the distributions tails exhibit exponential decay. Our findings may inform the development of models of market behavior across varying time scales.

  1. Slow return of reason to nuclear regulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McGranery, J.P. Jr.

    1983-01-01

    During the 1970s, the promise of nuclear power as a cheap source of electricity was seriously eroded in practice. A variety of reasons, including governmental vacillation and delay, have been offered for those circumstances. With a different administration and an apparently improving national economy, it seems appropriate to look at some of the governmental developments of the last year to see if there is hope for the return of reasonable and predictable regulation to nuclear power. This article summarizes some of the principal actions by the courts, the regulatory agency, the administration, and the Congress during that period, as well as pending actions. It concludes that there is a favorable climate and reason to hope, but that success will depend, in the final analysis, upon the conduct of the industry itself. 73 references

  2. Empirical Evidence on Student-t Log-Returns of Diversified World Stock Indices

    OpenAIRE

    Eckhard Platen; Renata Rendek

    2007-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to document some empirical facts related to log-returns of diversified world stock indices when these are denominated in different currencies. Motivated by earlier results, we have obtained the estimated distribution of log-returns for a range of world stock indices over long observation periods. We expand previous studies by applying the maximum likelihood ratio test to the large class of generalized hyperbolic distributions, and investigate the log-returns of a vari...

  3. A NEW EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION OF THE PLATINUM SPOT RETURNS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simone Kruse

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available The global platinum market has been in downturn and unstable for five consecutive years, and thus market participants are demanding effective quantitative risk management tools. Since platinum is so widely used and serves as an important investment vehicle, the importance of risk management of platinum spot returns cannot be understated. In this paper, we take advantage of a very popular econometric model, the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH model, for platinum returns. We received two important findings by using the conventional GARCH models in explain daily platinum spot returns. First, it is crucial to introduce heavy-tailed distribution to explain conditional heavy tails; and second, the NRIG distribution performs better than the most widely-used heavy-tailed distribution, the Student’s t distribution.

  4. Classifying Returns as Extreme: European Stock and Bond Markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Charlotte

    whereby a shorter sample period is needed. For the bond markets the simultaneous extreme return variable (used for analyzing integration and contagion of financial markets) is not statistically different for the two schemes. For the stock markets there are differences, but they are disappearing......I consider the stock and bond markets of 14 EU countries. I use two classification schemes for defining extreme returns: One, the existing univariate classification scheme which considers each market separately. Two, the new multivariate classification scheme that considers all the markets jointly...

  5. Changing conditions on wilderness campsites: Seven case studies of trends over 13 to 32 years

    Science.gov (United States)

    David N. Cole

    2013-01-01

    This report brings together seven case studies of trends in the number and condition of wilderness campsites over periods ranging from 13 to 32 years. Case examples come from five mountainous wilderness areas in the western United States: Sequoia-Kings Canyon Wilderness in California, the Eagle Cap Wilderness in Oregon, the Frank Church-River of No Return Wilderness in...

  6. PERSISTENCE IN PERFORMANCE FOR MUTUAL FUNDS IN PERIODS OF CRISIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Theodoros KARGIDIS

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available The study investigates the persistence in performance for a sample of South European funds, domiciled in Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain. Employing the Sharpe ratio, risk adjusted performance is measured in an attempt to judge the influence of the 2008 crisis and the current debt crisis on funds’ inclination to persist in their previous returns record. Examination period extends from January 2004 to December 2010 incorporating stages of relative stability in the stock and bond markets while also capturing the early stages of the eurozone crisis. We categorize funds as winners and losers in consecutive 6-monthly periods, thus being able to judge persistence in the short run, while our results suggest that the identification of winners and losers could enable us to investigate the possibility to gain investment advantages through this finding. Overall results suggest evidence of persistent results, whether positive or negative, both during the 2008 crisis and the current debt crisis, leading us to deduce that factors leading to performance persistence are not affected by market changes, since medium to long term persistence bypasses any temporary market mischief. This finding could be of use for fund managers aiming at establishing viable investment strategies, at their epicenter being the exploitation of such clues, suggesting persistence in returns. A fund of funds manager employing funds both in equities and fixed income could potentially choose to invest exclusively or more heavily in the winners of previous periods and avoid accordingly poor performers, thus achieving higher returns on average. For this purpose simple investment strategies are employed where we test the outcome of an investment strategy that would invest on fixed income securities by choosing those funds that were winners in the distribution of returns in the previous 6-monthly period, while disinvesting from poor performers and funds switching sides in performance

  7. Returning to sports after a back injury

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... medlineplus.gov/ency/patientinstructions/000518.htm Returning to sports after a back injury To use the sharing ... Back pain - returning to sports Which Type of Sport is Best? In deciding when and if to ...

  8. Long memory volatility of gold price returns: How strong is the evidence from distinct economic cycles?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bentes, Sonia R.

    2016-02-01

    This paper examines the long memory behavior in the volatility of gold returns using daily data for the period 1985-2009. We divided the whole sample into eight sub-samples in order to analyze the robustness and consistency of our results during different crisis periods. This constitutes our main contribution. We cover four major world crises, namely, (i) the US stock market crash of 1987; (ii) the Asian financial crisis of 1997; (iii) the World Trade Center terrorist attack of 2001 and finally, (iv) the sub-prime crisis of 2007, in order to investigate how the fractional integrated parameter of the FIGARCH(1, d,1) model evolves over time. Our findings are twofold: (i) there is evidence of long memory in the conditional variance over the whole sample period; (ii) when we consider the sub-sample analysis, the results show mixed evidence. Thus, for the 1985-2003 period the long memory parameter is positive and statistically significant in the pre-crisis sub-samples, and there is no evidence of long memory in the crisis sub-sample periods; however the reverse pattern occurs for the 2005-2009 period. This highlights the unique characteristics of the 2007 sub-prime crisis.

  9. Mars Sample Return Landed with Red Dragon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stoker, Carol R.; Lemke, Lawrence G.

    2013-01-01

    spacecraft designs capable of meeting mission requirements. Subsystems modeled in this study included structures, power system, propulsion system, nose fairing, thermal insulation, actuation devices, and GN&C. Best practice application of loads and design margins for all resources were used. Both storable and cryogenic propellant systems were examined. The landed mass and lander capsule size provide boundary conditions for the MAV design and packaging. We estimated the maximum mass the Dragon capsule is capable of landing. This and the volume capability to store the MAV was deduced from publically available data from SpaceX as well as our own engineering and aerodynamic estimates. Minimum gross-liftoff mass (GLOM) for the MAV were obtained for configurations that used pump-fed storable bi-propellant rocket engines for both the MAV and the ERV stage. The GLOM required fits within our internal estimate of the mass that Dragon can land at low elevation/optimal seasons on Mars. Based on the analysis, we show that a single Mars launch sample return mission is feasible using current commercial capabilities to deliver the return spacecraft assets.

  10. Returns to Tenure or Seniority?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Buhai, Ioan Sebastian; Portela, Miguel; Teulings, Coen

      This study documents two empirical regularities, using data for Denmark and Portugal. First, workers who are hired last, are the first to leave the firm (Last In, First Out; LIFO). Second, workers' wages rise with seniority (= a Worker's tenure relative to the tenure of her colleagues). We seek...... at the moment of separation). The LIFO rule provides a stronger bargaining position for senior workers, leading to a return to seniority in wages. Efficiency in hiring requires the workers' .bargaining power to be in line with their share in the cost of specific investment. Then, the LIFO rule is a way...

  11. Positive periodic solutions of delayed periodic Lotka-Volterra systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin Wei; Chen Tianping

    2005-01-01

    In this Letter, for a general class of delayed periodic Lotka-Volterra systems, we prove some new results on the existence of positive periodic solutions by Schauder's fixed point theorem. The global asymptotical stability of positive periodic solutions is discussed further, and conditions for exponential convergence are given. The conditions we obtained are weaker than the previously known ones and can be easily reduced to several special cases

  12. US Implied Volatility as A predictor of International Returns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehmet F. Dicle

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available This study provides evidence of the US implied volatility’s e ect on international equitymarkets’ returns. This evidence has two main implications: i investors may find that foreign equityreturns adjusting to US implied volatility may not provide true diversification benefits, and ii foreignequity returns may be predicted using US implied volatility. Our sample includes US volatility index(VIX and major equity indexes in twenty countries for the period between January, 2000 throughJuly, 2017. VIX leads eighteen of the international markets and Granger causes seventeen of themarkets after controlling for the S&P-500 index returns and the 2007/2008 US financial crisis. USinvestors looking to diversify US risk may find that international equities may not provide intendeddiversification benefits. Our evidence provides support for predictability of international equity returnsbased on US volatility.

  13. The role of remote voting in encouraging return

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Djordje Stefanovic

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Once there is a genuine possibility of going home, what influences a forced migrant’s decision to return to a pre-conflict residence, often in the face of very difficult conditions? What role can remote voting play?

  14. Private Returns on Education in Ghana: Estimating the Effects of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    national progress as investment in education accrues both private and social returns. ... Universal Basic Education (FCUBE), the Capitation Grant and the School Feeding .... working conditions of media workers in Ghana found a close link between educational ..... jobs, particularly elementary jobs in the formal sector.

  15. The log-linear return approximation, bubbles, and predictability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Engsted, Tom; Pedersen, Thomas Quistgaard; Tanggaard, Carsten

    We study in detail the log-linear return approximation introduced by Campbell and Shiller (1988a). First, we derive an upper bound for the mean approximation error, given stationarity of the log dividendprice ratio. Next, we simulate various rational bubbles which have explosive conditional expec...

  16. Market Timing : A Decomposition of Mutual Fund Returns

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Swinkels, L.A.P.; van der Sluis, P.J.; Verbeek, M.J.C.M.

    2003-01-01

    We decompose the conditional expected mutual fund return in ve parts.Two parts, selectivity and expert market timing, can be attributed to manager skill, and three to variation in market exposure that can be achieved by private investors as well.The dynamic model that we use to estimate the relative

  17. The Log-Linear Return Approximation, Bubbles, and Predictability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Engsted, Tom; Pedersen, Thomas Quistgaard; Tanggaard, Carsten

    2012-01-01

    We study in detail the log-linear return approximation introduced by Campbell and Shiller (1988a). First, we derive an upper bound for the mean approximation error, given stationarity of the log dividend-price ratio. Next, we simulate various rational bubbles which have explosive conditional expe...

  18. Do Human Arts Really Offer a Lower Return to Education?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dalgaard, Carl-Johan Lars; Sørensen, Anders; Schultz, Esben

    of women in their high school. Conditional on high school fixed effects, these  characteristics are unlikely to affect post-university wages and are plausible instruments for the  educational choice. Our 2SLS estimates reveal that the gap in returns to education is negligible, implying that the wage gap...

  19. Volatility modeling of asset returns | Babayemi | International Journal ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This research was carried out using the daily close share price of Nestle Nigeria Plc to identify and model its volatility of returns in the Nigerian Stock Exchange Market. The result of the study showed that basic Generalized Conditionally Heteroskedastic Model (GARCH (1,1)) model (with Gaussian Error Assumptions) best ...

  20. Projected changes of snow conditions and avalanche activity in a warming climate: a case study in the French Alps over the 2020-2050 and 2070-2100 periods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castebrunet, H.; Eckert, N.; Giraud, G.; Durand, Y.; Morin, S.

    2014-01-01

    Projecting changes in snow cover due to climate warming is important for many societal issues, including adaptation of avalanche risk mitigation strategies. Efficient modeling of future snow cover requires high resolution to properly resolve the topography. Here, we detail results obtained through statistical downscaling techniques allowing simulations of future snowpack conditions for the mid- and late 21st century in the French Alps under three climate change scenarios. Refined statistical descriptions of snowpack characteristics are provided with regards to a 1960-1990 reference period, including latitudinal, altitudinal and seasonal gradients. These results are then used to feed a statistical model of avalanche activity-snow conditions-meteorological conditions relationships, so as to produce the first prognoses at annual/seasonal time scales of future natural avalanche activity eventually based on past observations. The resulting statistical indicators are fundamental for the mountain economy in terms of changes anticipation. At all considered spatio-temporal scales, whereas precipitations are expected to remain quite stationary, temperature increase interacting with topography will control snow-related variables, for instance the rate of decrease of total and dry snow depths, and the successive increase/decrease of the wet snow pack. Overall, with regards to the reference period, changes are strong for the end of the 21st century, but already significant for the mid-century. Changes in winter are somewhat less important than in spring, but wet snow conditions will appear at high elevations earlier in the season. For a given altitude, the Southern French Alps will not be significantly more affected than the Northern French Alps, so that the snowpack characteristics will be preserved more lately in the southern massifs of higher mean altitude. Regarding avalanche activity, a general -20-30% decrease and interannual variability is forecasted, relatively strong

  1. Common Factors in International Bond Returns

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Driessen, J.J.A.G.; Melenberg, B.; Nijman, T.E.

    2000-01-01

    In this paper we estimate and interpret the factors that jointly determine bond returns of different maturities in the US, Germany and Japan.We analyze both currency-hedged and unhedged bond returns.For currency-hedged bond returns, we find that five factors explain 96.5% of the variation of bond

  2. Foreign currency returns and systematic risks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Galsband, V.; Nitschka, T.

    2015-01-01

    We apply an empirical approximation of the intertemporal capital asset pricing model (ICAPM) to show that cross-sectional dispersion in currency returns can be rationalized by differences in currency excess returns' sensitivities to the market return's cash-flow news component. This finding echoes

  3. Development and analysis of an economizer control strategy algorithm to promote an opportunity for energy savings in air conditioning installations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Neto, Jose H.M.; Azevedo, Walter L. [Centro Federal de Educacao Tecnologica de Minas Gerais (CEFET), Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil). Dept. de Engenharia Mecanica]. E-mail: henrique@daem.des.cefetmg.br

    2000-07-01

    This work presents an algorithm control strategy denominated enthalpy economizer. The objective of this algorithm strategy is to determine the adequate fractions of outside and return air flowrates entering a cooling coil based on the analysis of the outside, return and supply air enthalpies, rather than on the analysis of the dry bulb temperatures. The proposed algorithm predicts the actual opening position of the outside and return air dampers in order to provide the lower mixing air enthalpy. First, the psychometrics properties of the outside and return air are calculated from actual measurements of the dry and wet bulb temperatures. Then, three distinct cases are analyzed: the enthalpy of the outside air is lower than the enthalpy of the supply air (free cooling); the enthalpy of the outside air is higher than the enthalpy of the return air; the enthalpy of the outside air is lower than the enthalpy of the return air and higher than the temperature of the supply air. Different outside air conditions were selected in order to represent typical weather data of Brazilians cities, as well as typical return air conditions. It was found that the enthalpy control strategy could promote an opportunity for energy savings mainly during mild nights and wintertime periods as well as during warm afternoons and summertime periods, depending on the outside air relative humidity. The proposed algorithm works well and can be integrated in some commercial automation software to reduce energy consumption and electricity demand. (author)

  4. CONCEPT OF REENGINEERING AGAIN RETURNS IN ACTUALITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vasile Ionel POPESCU

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Although it was released in the summer of 1990, the concept of reengineering returns in actuality, because in the social and economic conditions that we are experiencing at the moment, to face the increasingly fierce competition more and more companies have to resort to redesign the processes. Throughout this article, after a brief introduction, we will present the factors that contributed to the occurrence of reengineering; trying to highlight what involves this concept, the characteristics of the processes resulted from the reengineering, the importance and methods to prepare a process map, and the method to launch the process redesign. Finally we have issued several opinions and have made a number of recommendations that will lead to achieving a qualitative leap targeted by the companies which resort to reengineering.

  5. Randomness confidence bands of fractal scaling exponents for financial price returns

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ibarra-Valdez, C.; Alvarez, J.; Alvarez-Ramirez, J.

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • A robust test for randomness of price returns is proposed. • The DFA scaling exponent is contrasted against confidence bands for random sequences. • The size of the band depends of the sequence length. • Crude oil and USA stock markets have been rarely inefficient. - Abstract: The weak-form of the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) establishes that price returns behave as a pure random process and so their outcomes cannot be forecasted. The detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) has been widely used to test the weak-form of the EMH by showing that time series of price returns are serially uncorrelated. In this case, the DFA scaling exponent exhibits deviations from the theoretical value of 0.5. This work considers the test of the EMH for DFA implementation on a sliding window, which is an approach that is intended to monitor the evolution of markets. Under these conditions, the scaling exponent exhibits important variations over the scrutinized period that can offer valuable insights in the behavior of the market provided the estimated scaling value is kept within strict statistical tests to verify the presence or not of serial correlations in the price returns. In this work, the statistical tests are based on comparing the estimated scaling exponent with the values obtained from pure Gaussian sequences with the length of the real time series. In this way, the presence of serial correlations can be guaranteed only in terms of the confidence bands of a pure Gaussian process. The crude oil (WTI) and the USA stock (DJIA) markets are used to illustrate the methodology.

  6. Migratory Patterns of Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha Returning to a Large, Free-flowing River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eiler, John H.; Evans, Allison N.; Schreck, Carl B.

    2015-01-01

    Upriver movements were determined for Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha returning to the Yukon River, a large, virtually pristine river basin. These returns have declined dramatically since the late 1990s, and information is needed to better manage the run and facilitate conservation efforts. A total of 2,860 fish were radio tagged during 2002–2004. Most (97.5%) of the fish tracked upriver to spawning areas displayed continual upriver movements and strong fidelity to the terminal tributaries entered. Movement rates were substantially slower for fish spawning in lower river tributaries (28–40 km d-1) compared to upper basin stocks (52–62 km d-1). Three distinct migratory patterns were observed, including a gradual decline, pronounced decline, and substantial increase in movement rate as the fish moved upriver. Stocks destined for the same region exhibited similar migratory patterns. Individual fish within a stock showed substantial variation, but tended to reflect the regional pattern. Differences between consistently faster and slower fish explained 74% of the within-stock variation, whereas relative shifts in sequential movement rates between “hares” (faster fish becoming slower) and “tortoises” (slow but steady fish) explained 22% of the variation. Pulses of fish moving upriver were not cohesive. Fish tagged over a 4-day period took 16 days to pass a site 872 km upriver. Movement rates were substantially faster and the percentage of atypical movements considerably less than reported in more southerly drainages, but may reflect the pristine conditions within the Yukon River, wild origins of the fish, and discrete run timing of the returns. Movement data can provide numerous insights into the status and management of salmon returns, particularly in large river drainages with widely scattered fisheries where management actions in the lower river potentially impact harvests and escapement farther upstream. However, the substantial variation

  7. The role of communication and support in return to work following cancer-related absence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yarker, J; Munir, F; Bains, M; Kalawsky, K; Haslam, C

    2010-10-01

    Many cancer survivors experience difficulties returning to work. However, there have been relatively few attempts to understand why problems with employer support and work adjustment occur. This paper aims to extend previous work in two ways: first, through exploring the way in which communication and support at work effect cancer survivors on their return to work and during the post-return period; and second, by drawing on a research sample working in the United Kingdom. In all, 26 cancer survivors took part in a semi-structured telephone interview. Interviews were transcribed and analysed using thematic analysis. The analysis revealed three key findings. First, the central role of communication and support from (and between) occupational health, line managers, and colleagues was highlighted. Second, two discrete processes or periods of return to work were identified: the experience of return to work during the initial period of return and the experiences of post-return to work. Third, during the post-return period, the importance of the delayed impact of cancer on the ability to work, the lack of follow-up and monitoring, and the wear-off effect of empathy and support were highlighted as contributing to return-to-work difficulties. This qualitative study highlights the importance of communication within the workplace with regard to the return-to-work process and the need to provide better support and guidance to cancer survivors, line managers and colleagues. Research is required in delineating how employers without occupational health or human resources support manage the return-to-work process. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  8. Return to work among breast cancer survivors: A literature review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Yuanlu; Shigaki, Cheryl L; Armer, Jane M

    2017-03-01

    Breast cancer survivors in their employment years are likely to try to go back to work after the primary treatment. Because the literature on return to work among breast cancer survivors is limited, we have undertaken a review of the literature to summarize what is known, including identifying important contributing variables and outcomes. This knowledge may be used to develop hypotheses and potential interventions to support breast cancer survivors who wish to return to work. We searched the following databases: CINAHL, MEDLINE, SCOUP, and PUBMED, within a 10-year timeframe (2004 to 2014). The majority of reviewed articles (N = 25) focused on three outcomes: return-to-work period, work ability, and work performance. The most frequently studied independent variables were collapsed into the following groups: health and well-being, symptoms and functioning, work demands and work environment, individual characteristics, and societal and cultural factors. Gaps in the literature include evidence of effective interventions to support return to work among breast cancer survivors and research to better understand the roles of government and business-related policy. All the studies reported a reduced work engagement and work ability. Employment status and work performance is associated with a combination of individual factors, work environment, culture, and resources. Significant gaps are apparent in the literature addressing breast cancer survivorship and return to work. This is a complex problem and it will likely require interdisciplinary research teams to develop effective and feasible interventions for this population.

  9. EMPIRICAL DISTRIBUTION OF STOCK RETURNS OF SOUTHEAST EUROPEAN EMERGING MARKETS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aleksandar Naumoski

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The assumption that equity returns follow the normal distribution, most commonly made in financial economics theory and applications, is strongly rejected by empirical evidence presented in this paper. As it was found in many other studies, we confirm that stock returns follow a leptokurtic distribution and skewness, which in most of the Southeast European (SEE markets is negative. This paper investigates further whether there is any distribution that may be considered an optimal fit for stock returns in the SEE region. Using daily, weekly and monthly data samples for a period of five years from ten Southeast European emerging countries, we applied the Anderson-Darling test of Goodness-of-fit. We strongly rejected the aforementioned assumption of normality for all considered data samples and found that the daily stock returns are best fitted by the Johnson SU distribution whereas for the weekly and monthly stock returns there was not one predominant, but many distributions that can be considered a best fit.

  10. Maternal perspectives on the return of genetic results: context matters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lakes, Kimberley D; Vaughan, Elaine; Lemke, Amy; Jones, Marissa; Wigal, Timothy; Baker, Dean; Swanson, James M; Burke, Wylie

    2013-01-01

    The objectives of this study were to study maternal preferences for the return of their child's genetic results and to describe the experiences, perceptions, attitudes, and values that are brought to bear when individuals from different racial and cultural backgrounds consider participating in genetic research. We recruited women with diverse sociodemographic profiles to participate in seven focus groups. Twenty-eight percent of participants self-identified as Hispanic; 49% as White, non-Hispanic; and 21% as Asian or Asian American. Focus groups were conducted in English or Spanish and were audio-recorded and transcribed verbatim. Transcripts were analyzed using qualitative thematic methods. Results indicated that preferences and decisions regarding the return of results may depend on both research and individual contextual factors. Participants understood the return of results as a complex issue, where individual and cultural differences in preferences are certain to arise. Another key finding was that participants desired an interpersonal, dynamic, flexible process that accommodated individual preferences and contextual differences for returning results. Our findings indicate a need to have well-developed systems for allowing participants to make and change over time their choices regarding the return of their child's genetic results. Copyright © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  11. A study on relationship between the return of value/growth portfolio and market return: Evidence from Tehran Stock Exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Monireh Mashhadi Ramezanali

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available This study examines the relationship between the returns of two value and growth portfolios and the return of market on 15 selected firms on Tehran Stock Exchange over the period 2008-2011. The study divides the firms into two groups in terms of the ratios of price on earning as well as price on book value into two groups of value and growth portfolios. Using some regression analysis, the study has determined a positive and meaningful relationship between value portfolio and market return when the market is on the upside but this relationship is not meaningful during the bear session. The results indicate that during the bull sessions, value portfolios provide better investment opportunities than growth ones do.

  12. Strategies to gain body condition score in pasture-based dairy cows during late lactation and the far-off nonlactating period and their interaction with close-up dry matter intake.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roche, J R; Heiser, A; Mitchell, M D; Crookenden, M A; Walker, C G; Kay, J K; Riboni, M Vailati; Loor, J J; Meier, S

    2017-03-01

    In pasture-based systems, cows are generally thinner at the end of lactation than cows fed total mixed rations and, as a result, over-feeding of metabolizable energy (ME) during the far-off nonlactating period is a standard management policy to achieve optimum calving body condition score (BCS). An alternative would be to manage cows to gain BCS through late lactation, such that cows ended lactation close to optimum calving BCS and maintenance of BCS through to calving. We sought to quantify the effect of moderate or excessive ME intakes during the far-off nonlactating period in cows that had been managed to gain or maintain BCS through late lactation and whether the far-off management strategy interacted with close-up level of feeding. Effects on milk production and circulating indicators of energy balance and metabolic health in early lactation were evaluated. A herd of 150 cows was randomly assigned to 1 of 2 feeding levels in late lactation to achieve a low and high BCS at the time of dry-off (approximately 4.25 and 5.0 on a 10-point scale). Following dry-off, both herds were managed to achieve a BCS of 5.0 one month before calving; this involved controlled feeding (i.e., maintenance) and over-feeding of ME during the far-off dry period. Within each far-off feeding-level treatment, cows were offered 65, 90, or 120% of their pre-calving ME requirements for 3 wk pre-calving in a 2 × 3 factorial arrangement (i.e., 25 cows/treatment). Body weight and BCS were measured weekly before and after calving, and milk production was measured weekly until wk 7 postcalving. Blood samples were collected weekly for 4 wk pre-calving and 5 wk postcalving, and on d 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4 relative to calving, and analyzed for indicators of energy balance (e.g., blood fatty acids, β-hydroxybutyrate), calcium status, and inflammatory state. No interaction was observed between far-off and close-up feeding levels. Over-feeding of ME to low BCS cows during the far-off nonlactating period

  13. THE EFFECT OF MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES ON STOCK RETURNS ON DHAKA STOCK EXCHANGE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammed Monjurul Quadir

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This article investigates the effects of macroeconomic variables of treasury bill interest rate and industrial production on stock returns on Dhaka Stock Exchange for the period between January 2000 and February 2007 on the basis of monthly time series data using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA model. The paper has taken the overall market stock returns as an independent variable. It does not consider the stock returns of different companies separately. Though the ARIMA model finds a positive relationship between Treasury bill interest rate and industrial production with market stock returns but the coefficients have turned out to be statistically insignificant.

  14. Stock Returns and Risk: Evidence from Quantile

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas C. Chiang

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper employs weighted least squares to examine the risk-return relation by applying high-frequency data from four major stock indexes in the US market and finds some evidence in favor of a positive relation between the mean of the excess returns and expected risk. However, by using quantile regressions, we find that the risk-return relation moves from negative to positive as the returns’ quantile increases. A positive risk-return relation is valid only in the upper quantiles. The evidence also suggests that intraday skewness plays a dominant role in explaining the variations of excess returns.

  15. Real exchange rate persistence and the excess return puzzle

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Juselius, Katarina; Assenmacher, Katrin

    2017-01-01

    The PPP puzzle refers to the wide swings of nominal exchange rates around their long-run equilibrium values whereas the excess return puzzle represents the persistent deviation of the domestic-foreign interest rate differential from the expected change in the nominal exchange rate. Using the I(2......) cointegrated VAR model, much of the excess return puzzle disappears when an uncertainty premium in the foreign exchange market, proxied by the persistent PPP gap, is introduced. Self-reinforcing feedback mechanisms seem to cause the persistence in the Swiss-US parity conditions. These results support imperfect...

  16. Abnormal stock market returns to announcements of M&A banking deals in Greece 1996-2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anastasios KARAMANOS

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This study has undertaken a comprehensive empirical analysis of the wealth effects of bank M&As in Greece over the period 1996-2013. The purpose is to measure the performance of merger participants over the acquisition period as a deviation of how shareholders’ actual returns differ from expected returns conditional on the particular process of M&A. The authors develop a conceptual framework that integrates theoretical perspectives from economics, finance, organization theory, strategic management and human resource management to offer a broader process-oriented integrative model of the empirical evidence and theories suggested to explain acquisitions. The empirical analysis reports insignificant abnormal gains for acquiring banks, significant positive abnormal returns at 7,44% for acquired banks, and 2,91% positive abnormal returns for the combined entity, in the event window [-10;+1]. The findings indicate that, on average, the Greek bank mergers neither create nor destroy shareholder wealth. This result is consistent with the findings of other Greek event studies and the bulk of US and European event studies on M&A wealth effects. On average, acquired firm shareholders gain at the expense of the acquiring firm and market value of the combined entity appears to have little improvement around the announcement of the transaction. The conceptual framework explicitly describes that wealth effects of bank M&As in Greece over the period 1996-2013 may be a result of macroeconomic theory and perfectly competitive market, lack of strategic relatedness and synergy realization, managerial hubris, or unethical behavior of managers derived from expense preference approach of agency theory.

  17. Determinants of Return on Assets in Romania: A Principal Component Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sorana Vatavu

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the impact of capital structure, as well as its determinants on the financial performance of Romanian companies listed on the Bucharest Stock Exchange. The analysis is based on cross sectional regressions and factor analysis, and it refers to a ten-year period (2003-2012. Return on assets (ROA is the performance proxy, while the capital structure indicator is debt ratio. Regression results indicate that Romanian companies register higher returns when they operate with limited borrowings. Among the capital structure determinants, tangibility and business risk have a negative impact on ROA, but the level of taxation has a positive effect, showing that companies manage their assets more efficiently during times of higher fiscal pressure. Performance is sustained by sales turnover, but not significantly influenced by high levels of liquidity. Periods of unstable economic conditions, reflected by high inflation rates and the current financial crisis, have a strong negative impact on corporate performance. Based on regression results, three factors were considered through the method of iterated principal component factors: the first one incorporates debt and size, as an indicator of consumption, the second one integrates the influence of tangibility and liquidity, marking the investment potential, and the third one is an indicator of assessed risk, integrating the volatility of earnings with the level of taxation. ROA is significantly influenced by these three factors, regardless the regression method used. The consumption factor has a negative impact on performance, while the investment and risk variables positively influence ROA.

  18. The Effects of Twitter Sentiment on Stock Price Returns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ranco, Gabriele; Aleksovski, Darko; Caldarelli, Guido; Grčar, Miha; Mozetič, Igor

    2015-01-01

    Social media are increasingly reflecting and influencing behavior of other complex systems. In this paper we investigate the relations between a well-known micro-blogging platform Twitter and financial markets. In particular, we consider, in a period of 15 months, the Twitter volume and sentiment about the 30 stock companies that form the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) index. We find a relatively low Pearson correlation and Granger causality between the corresponding time series over the entire time period. However, we find a significant dependence between the Twitter sentiment and abnormal returns during the peaks of Twitter volume. This is valid not only for the expected Twitter volume peaks (e.g., quarterly announcements), but also for peaks corresponding to less obvious events. We formalize the procedure by adapting the well-known "event study" from economics and finance to the analysis of Twitter data. The procedure allows to automatically identify events as Twitter volume peaks, to compute the prevailing sentiment (positive or negative) expressed in tweets at these peaks, and finally to apply the "event study" methodology to relate them to stock returns. We show that sentiment polarity of Twitter peaks implies the direction of cumulative abnormal returns. The amount of cumulative abnormal returns is relatively low (about 1-2%), but the dependence is statistically significant for several days after the events.

  19. 76 FR 22611 - Specified Tax Return Preparers Required To File Individual Income Tax Returns Using Magnetic...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-04-22

    ... Specified Tax Return Preparers Required To File Individual Income Tax Returns Using Magnetic Media... Register on Wednesday, March 30, 2011 (76 FR 17521) providing guidance to specified tax return preparers who prepare and file individual income tax returns using magnetic media pursuant to section 6011(e)(3...

  20. FINANCIAL RETURN ON ASSETS. THE IMPACT OF THE FINANCIAL RETURN ON ASSETS OVER THE COMPANY’S DEVELOPMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Constantin Căruntu

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available The financial rate of return is a significant indicator for assessing the economic and financial performance of an enterprise for the internal diagnosis, as well as for the analysis required by the external partners. The financial return is a basic indicator which characterizes the business performances that is found directly under the trade policy (trade cost, efficiency of capital employed (economic profitability but also under the financial policy of the company. If the economic rate of return expresses a remuneration of the employed capital only in relation to operating activities, the financial rate of return quantifies a remuneration of the private capital trough all three types of activity: operational, financial and extraordinary. Starting from the consideration that the financial rate of return expresses the efficiency of equity or permanent capital use of the company we can state that it is of particular importance to the shareholders of the company, which considers according to it’s level whether their investments are justified and they will continue to support the business development through raising of fresh capital or abandonment for a limited period to one part of the dividends due. Managers, in turn, will be keen on maintaining an appropriate level of this rate, in order to retain their positions and to achieve the performance criteria of the company.

  1. Exploring the Processes of Self-Development Encountered by Adult Returners to Higher Education: A Lifespan Psychology Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mercer, Jenny

    2010-01-01

    Evidence indicates that non-traditional adult returners describe returning to education as a period of self-development and growth. However, lifespan psychology perspectives also show that successful growth and change involves periods of conflict. This paper will explore both the nature of self-development and conflicts experienced by a sample of…

  2. Uncertain programming models for portfolio selection with uncertain returns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Bo; Peng, Jin; Li, Shengguo

    2015-10-01

    In an indeterminacy economic environment, experts' knowledge about the returns of securities consists of much uncertainty instead of randomness. This paper discusses portfolio selection problem in uncertain environment in which security returns cannot be well reflected by historical data, but can be evaluated by the experts. In the paper, returns of securities are assumed to be given by uncertain variables. According to various decision criteria, the portfolio selection problem in uncertain environment is formulated as expected-variance-chance model and chance-expected-variance model by using the uncertainty programming. Within the framework of uncertainty theory, for the convenience of solving the models, some crisp equivalents are discussed under different conditions. In addition, a hybrid intelligent algorithm is designed in the paper to provide a general method for solving the new models in general cases. At last, two numerical examples are provided to show the performance and applications of the models and algorithm.

  3. How well do financial and macroeconomic variables predict stock returns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Anne-Sofie Reng

    Recent evidence of mean reversion in stock returns has led to an explosion in the development of forecasting variables. This paper evaluates the relative performance of these many variables in both time-series and cross-sectional setups. We collect the different measures and compare their forecas......Recent evidence of mean reversion in stock returns has led to an explosion in the development of forecasting variables. This paper evaluates the relative performance of these many variables in both time-series and cross-sectional setups. We collect the different measures and compare...... their forecasting ability for stock returns, and we examine the forecasting variables' ability to reduce pricing errors in the conditional C-CAPM. A key result of the analysis is that the traditional pricedividend ratio performs surprisingly well compared to the many new forecasting variables. We also find...

  4. An Empirical Study of the Effect of Investor Sentiment on Returns of Different Industries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chuangxia Huang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Studies on investor sentiment are mostly focused on the stock market, but little attention has been paid to the effect of investor sentiment on the return of a specific industry. This paper constructs a proxy variable to examine the relationship between investor sentiment and the return of a specific industry, using the Principle Component Analysis, and finds that investor sentiment is positively correlated with the industry return of the current period and negatively correlated with that of one lag period; we classify investor sentiment as optimistic state and pessimistic state and find that optimistic investor sentiment has a positive effect on stock returns of most industries, while pessimistic investor sentiment has no effect on them; this paper further builds a two-state Markov regime switching model and finds that sentiment has different effect on different industries returns on different states of market.

  5. Thyrotoxic periodic paralysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rojith Karandode Balakrishnan

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This article aims at highlighting the importance of suspecting thyrotoxicosis in cases of recurrent periodic flaccid paralysis; especially in Asian men to facilitate early diagnosis of the former condition. A case report of a 28 year old male patient with recurrent periodic flaccid paralysis has been presented. Hypokalemia secondary to thyrotoxicosis was diagnosed as the cause of the paralysis. The patient was given oral potassium intervention over 24 hours. The patient showed complete recovery after the medical intervention and was discharged after 24 hours with no residual paralysis. Thyrotoxic periodic paralysis (TPP is a complication of thyrotoxicosis, more common amongst males in Asia. It presents as acute flaccid paralysis in a case of hyperthyroidism with associated hypokalemia. The features of thyrotoxicosis may be subtle or absent. Thus, in cases of recurrent or acute flaccid muscle paralysis, it is important to consider thyrotoxicosis as one of the possible causes, and take measures accordingly.

  6. ASYMMETRY OF MARKET RETURNS AND THE MEAN VARIANCE FRONTIER

    OpenAIRE

    SENGUPTA, Jati K.; PARK, Hyung S.

    1994-01-01

    The hypothesis that the skewness and asymmetry have no significant impact on the mean variance frontier is found to be strongly violated by monthly U.S. data over the period January 1965 through December 1974. This result raises serious doubts whether the common market portifolios such as SP 500, value weighted and equal weighted returns can serve as suitable proxies for meanvariance efficient portfolios in the CAPM framework. A new test for assessing the impact of skewness on the variance fr...

  7. The Impact of Fund Attrition on Superannuation Returns

    OpenAIRE

    Drew, Michael E.; Stanford, Jon D.

    2001-01-01

    This paper investigates the impact of fund attrition on returns from a sample of superannuation fund managers (specialising in the management of domestic stock portfolios) for the period 1991 through 1999, using a four-factor asset pricing model. Survivorship bias is estimated at 23 basis points per annum. The evidence presented in this study is consistent with recent international evidence that suggests that a sampling technique that excludes terminated funds would result in an overestimatio...

  8. Return voltage: reproductibility of lack in isolated plastics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frutos, F.; Acedo, M.; Jimenez, A.; Perez, J.A.

    1998-01-01

    Return voltage measures from plane-plane and point-plane experimental test objects of polyethylene are presented. Even though a lack of reproducibility is observed, all the experimental voltage curves can be modellized as the sum of two exponential functions: a first one with a long time period and a second one with a quite shorter time parameter. This analytical behaviour could be theoretically explained by considering an exponential dielectric function response. (Author) 7 refs

  9. Unemployment, Investment and Global Expected Returns: A Panel FAVAR Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Ron Smith; Gylfi Zoega

    2005-01-01

    We consider the hypothesis that a common factor, global expected returns, drives unemployment and investment in 21 OECD countries over the period 1960-2002. We investigate this hypothesis using a panel-factor augmented-vector autoregression (FAVAR). We first estimate the common factors of unemployment and investment by principal components and show that the first principal component of unemployment is almost identical to that of investment and that they both show the pattern one would expect ...

  10. VARIABILITAS RETURN SAHAM DI SEKITAR PENGUMUMAN PERGANTIAN CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER

    OpenAIRE

    Setiawan, Doddy

    2015-01-01

    The research aims at examining market reaction to CEO turnover announcements.The samples of the research consist of 59 CEO turnover announcements during 1992-2003periods. The author use security returns variance to examine information content of CEOturnover announcement. Friedman and Singh (1989) argue that contextual factorsmoderating the market reaction to the CEO turnover announcements. Therefore the authorconsidering two factors: the succession process and the origin of incoming CEO. The ...

  11. Variabilitas Return Saham di Sekitar Pengumuman Pergantian Chief Executive Officer

    OpenAIRE

    Setiawan, Doddy

    2007-01-01

    The research aims at examining market reaction to CEO turnover announcements.The samples of the research consist of 59 CEO turnover announcements during 1992-2003periods. The author use security returns variance to examine information content of CEOturnover announcement. Friedman and Singh (1989) argue that contextual factorsmoderating the market reaction to the CEO turnover announcements. Therefore the authorconsidering two factors: the succession process and the origin of incoming CEO. The ...

  12. Working Capital Approaches and Firm’s Returns in Pakistan

    OpenAIRE

    Dr. Talat Afza; Mian Sajid Nazir

    2008-01-01

    This study investigates the relationship between the aggressive/conservative working capital policies for seventeen industrial groups of public limited companies listed at Karachi Stock Exchange for a period of 1998-2003. The ordinary least square regression model has been used to investigate into the relationship of working capital approaches and the returns of firms. The study found significant differences among their working capital investment and financing policies across different indust...

  13. Risk of portfolio with simulated returns based on copula model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Razak, Ruzanna Ab; Ismail, Noriszura

    2015-02-01

    The commonly used tool for measuring risk of a portfolio with equally weighted stocks is variance-covariance method. Under extreme circumstances, this method leads to significant underestimation of actual risk due to its multivariate normality assumption of the joint distribution of stocks. The purpose of this research is to compare the actual risk of portfolio with the simulated risk of portfolio in which the joint distribution of two return series is predetermined. The data used is daily stock prices from the ASEAN market for the period January 2000 to December 2012. The copula approach is applied to capture the time varying dependence among the return series. The results shows that the chosen copula families are not suitable to present the dependence structures of each bivariate returns. Exception for the Philippines-Thailand pair where by t copula distribution appears to be the appropriate choice to depict its dependence. Assuming that the t copula distribution is the joint distribution of each paired series, simulated returns is generated and value-at-risk (VaR) is then applied to evaluate the risk of each portfolio consisting of two simulated return series. The VaR estimates was found to be symmetrical due to the simulation of returns via elliptical copula-GARCH approach. By comparison, it is found that the actual risks are underestimated for all pairs of portfolios except for Philippines-Thailand. This study was able to show that disregard of the non-normal dependence structure of two series will result underestimation of actual risk of the portfolio.

  14. Invariance in the recurrence of large returns and the validation of models of price dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Lo-Bin; Geman, Stuart; Hsieh, Fushing; Hwang, Chii-Ruey

    2013-08-01

    Starting from a robust, nonparametric definition of large returns (“excursions”), we study the statistics of their occurrences, focusing on the recurrence process. The empirical waiting-time distribution between excursions is remarkably invariant to year, stock, and scale (return interval). This invariance is related to self-similarity of the marginal distributions of returns, but the excursion waiting-time distribution is a function of the entire return process and not just its univariate probabilities. Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models, market-time transformations based on volume or trades, and generalized (Lévy) random-walk models all fail to fit the statistical structure of excursions.

  15. On fractality and chaos in Moroccan family business stock returns and volatility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lahmiri, Salim

    2017-05-01

    The purpose of this study is to examine existence of fractality and chaos in returns and volatilities of family business companies listed on the Casablanca Stock Exchange (CSE) in Morocco, and also in returns and volatility of the CSE market index. Detrended fluctuation analysis based Hurst exponent and fractionally integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (FIGARCH) model are used to quantify fractality in returns and volatility time series respectively. Besides, the largest Lyapunov exponent is employed to quantify chaos in both time series. The empirical results from sixteen family business companies follow. For return series, fractality analysis show that most of family business returns listed on CSE exhibit anti-persistent dynamics, whilst market returns have persistent dynamics. Besides, chaos tests show that business family stock returns are not chaotic while market returns exhibit evidence of chaotic behaviour. For volatility series, fractality analysis shows that most of family business stocks and market index exhibit long memory in volatility. Furthermore, results from chaos tests show that volatility of family business returns is not chaotic, whilst volatility of market index is chaotic. These results may help understanding irregularities patterns in Moroccan family business stock returns and volatility, and how they are different from market dynamics.

  16. An analysis of the relation between return and beta for portfolios of Turkish equities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salvatore J. Terregrossa

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The present study investigates the possible existence of a systematic relation between beta and excess-return for portfolios of Turkish equities. In the process, no systematic relation is found between beta and realized portfolio excess-return, in an unconditional sense. However, the study does find a systematic relation between realized portfolio excess-return and beta, conditioned upon the sign of realized market-portfolio excess-return. Moreover, an even stronger systematic relation is found between realized portfolio excess-return and beta, conditioned not only upon the sign, but also the magnitude of realized market-portfolio excess-return, with the estimation of the security market plane (SMP model. The study has several useful implications for portfolio managers. Firstly, the empirical findings strongly suggest that employment of the SMP model may generate more accurate estimations of expected asset-return, compared with straightforward application of the capital asset pricing model (CAPM. Enhanced accuracy of expected asset-return, in turn, may lead to more accurate appraisals of asset value, resulting in more profitable investment opportunities and decisions. Employment of the SMP model may thus lead to enhanced efficient-portfolio development, by leading to construction of portfolios with greater expected-return, for a given class of quantifiable-risk.

  17. Return to cyclical activity in ewes with energy and protein restriction during lactation period Retorno a atividade cíclica em ovelhas deslanadas submetidas à restrição calórica ou protéica durante o período de lactação

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eleonora Araújo Barbosa

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Inadequate ingestion of nutrients in quality and quantities is common cause of infertility in ewe and mechanisms involved between nutrition and reproduction is changeable. The aim of this work was to evaluate the energy or protein restriction during lactation in ewe on return of reproductive cyclic activity. Twenty one females in post-partum was divided randomly in 3 treatments: control treatment (CT, diet supply the requirements for maintenance and lactation, caloric restriction (CRT, supplied ½ of the diet of the CT, protein restriction (PRT, supplied 1/3 of the protein of the CT. Trans-rectal ultrasound was performed to ovary evaluation weekly and the body weight were measured biweekly. Effect of treatment on number (P<0.0001 and diameter (P<0.0001 of follicle was observed. PRT (3.32 ± 1.79; 1.45 ± 0.15 was lesser CRT (4.12 ± 1.98 ; 1.55 ± 0.09 and CT (4.94±2.01; 3.32 ± 0.22. Interaction between treatment and week in follicles lesser or equal 3 mm (P=0,0007 and greater of 3 mm (P<0,0001 added the presence of corpus luteum (P=0.0319 in the CT demonstrated effect of energy or protein restriction in the cyclic pattens of nursing sheep. On the basis of the results conclude that the nutritional restriction affects the return of the cyclical activity in the post-partum of sheep.A ingestão inadequada de nutrientes em qualidade e quantidade influencia a fertilidade das ovelhas, sendo variados os mecanismos envolvidos na inter-relação nutrição e reprodução. Objetivou-se avaliar os efeitos da restrição calórica ou protéica em ovelhas, durante a fase de lactação, sobre o desenvolvimento folicular e retorno à atividade cíclica pós-parto. Foram utilizadas 21 ovelhas SRD, recém-paridas, divididas aleatoriamente em três tratamentos: tratamento controle (TC - dieta que atendia aos requerimentos de mantença e lactação, restrição calórica (TRC - fornecia 1/2 da dieta do TC, restrição protéica (TRP - fornecia 1/3 da prote

  18. Maximizing ROI (return on information)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McDonald, B.

    2000-05-01

    The role and importance of managing information are discussed, underscoring the importance by quoting from the report of the International Data Corporation, according to which Fortune 500 companies lost $ 12 billion in 1999 due to inefficiencies resulting from intellectual re-work, substandard performance , and inability to find knowledge resources. The report predicts that this figure will rise to $ 31.5 billion by 2003. Key impediments to implementing knowledge management systems are identified as : the cost and human resources requirement of deployment; inflexibility of historical systems to adapt to change; and the difficulty of achieving corporate acceptance of inflexible software products that require changes in 'normal' ways of doing business. The author recommends the use of model, document and rule-independent systems with a document centered interface (DCI), employing rapid application development (RAD) and object technologies and visual model development, which eliminate these problems, making it possible for companies to maximize their return on information (ROI), and achieve substantial savings in implementation costs.

  19. Money growth and aggregate stock returns

    OpenAIRE

    Böing, Tobias; Stadtmann, Georg

    2016-01-01

    We empirically evaluate the predictive power of money growth measured by M2 for stock returns of the S&P 500 index. We use monthly US data and predict multiperiod returns over 1, 3, and 5 years with long-horizon regressions. In-sample regressions show that money growth is useful for predicting returns. Higher recent money growth has a significantly negative effect on subsequent returns of the S&P 500. An out-of-sample analysis shows that a simple model with money growth as a single predictor ...

  20. Policy for returning to fisheries in Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jihoon Kim

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Korea’s fishing industry is currently facing problems involving an aging society and lack of successors in fishing villages. Therefore, the Korea Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries (KMOF has implemented a policy supporting U-turn fishers, who leave their place of origin for a job and then return home or move to where they can work in the fishing industry. Moreover, some local governments have established a policy for U-turn fishers. The KMOF policy is a financial support program with low interest rates and lengthy reimbursement periods; however, few beneficiaries exist. Meanwhile, local government policy benefits most persons in corresponding areas. However, the sums are relatively small, and only two local governments have enacted the policy. This study determines the performance of the policy through indepth interviews and a survey. The results indicate that KMOF policy may be limited in terms of its scope. In addition, noneconomic support programs, such as fishing education, harmony between existing fishers, and the acquisition of fishery rights, are required. The number of U-turn fishers will continue to increase as the baby boomer generation nears retirement and unemployment of youth increases. As such, the Korean government needs to improve the policy in keeping with the times.