Upper Bounds for Ruin Probability with Stochastic Investment Return
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
ZHANG Lihong
2005-01-01
Risk models with stochastic investment return are widely held in practice, as well as in more challenging research fields. Risk theory is mainly concerned with ruin probability, and a tight bound for ruin probability is the best for practical use. This paper presents a discrete time risk model with stochastic investment return. Conditional expectation properties and martingale inequalities are used to obtain both exponential and non-exponential upper bounds for the ruin probability.
Calculating the Probability of Returning a Loan with Binary Probability Models
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Julian Vasilev
2014-12-01
Full Text Available The purpose of this article is to give a new approach in calculating the probability of returning a loan. A lot of factors affect the value of the probability. In this article by using statistical and econometric models some influencing factors are proved. The main approach is concerned with applying probit and logit models in loan management institutions. A new aspect of the credit risk analysis is given. Calculating the probability of returning a loan is a difficult task. We assume that specific data fields concerning the contract (month of signing, year of signing, given sum and data fields concerning the borrower of the loan (month of birth, year of birth (age, gender, region, where he/she lives may be independent variables in a binary logistics model with a dependent variable “the probability of returning a loan”. It is proved that the month of signing a contract, the year of signing a contract, the gender and the age of the loan owner do not affect the probability of returning a loan. It is proved that the probability of returning a loan depends on the sum of contract, the remoteness of the loan owner and the month of birth. The probability of returning a loan increases with the increase of the given sum, decreases with the proximity of the customer, increases for people born in the beginning of the year and decreases for people born at the end of the year.
Probability distribution of extreme share returns in Malaysia
Zin, Wan Zawiah Wan; Safari, Muhammad Aslam Mohd; Jaaman, Saiful Hafizah; Yie, Wendy Ling Shin
2014-09-01
The objective of this study is to investigate the suitable probability distribution to model the extreme share returns in Malaysia. To achieve this, weekly and monthly maximum daily share returns are derived from share prices data obtained from Bursa Malaysia over the period of 2000 to 2012. The study starts with summary statistics of the data which will provide a clue on the likely candidates for the best fitting distribution. Next, the suitability of six extreme value distributions, namely the Gumbel, Generalized Extreme Value (GEV), Generalized Logistic (GLO) and Generalized Pareto (GPA), the Lognormal (GNO) and the Pearson (PE3) distributions are evaluated. The method of L-moments is used in parameter estimation. Based on several goodness of fit tests and L-moment diagram test, the Generalized Pareto distribution and the Pearson distribution are found to be the best fitted distribution to represent the weekly and monthly maximum share returns in Malaysia stock market during the studied period, respectively.
Manlove, Kezia R; Cassirer, E Frances; Plowright, Raina K; Cross, Paul C; Hudson, Peter J
2017-07-01
Understanding both contact and probability of transmission given contact are key to managing wildlife disease. However, wildlife disease research tends to focus on contact heterogeneity, in part because the probability of transmission given contact is notoriously difficult to measure. Here, we present a first step towards empirically investigating the probability of transmission given contact in free-ranging wildlife. We used measured contact networks to test whether bighorn sheep demographic states vary systematically in infectiousness or susceptibility to Mycoplasma ovipneumoniae, an agent responsible for bighorn sheep pneumonia. We built covariates using contact network metrics, demographic information and infection status, and used logistic regression to relate those covariates to lamb survival. The covariate set contained degree, a classic network metric describing node centrality, but also included covariates breaking the network metrics into subsets that differentiated between contacts with yearlings, ewes with lambs, and ewes without lambs, and animals with and without active infections. Yearlings, ewes with lambs, and ewes without lambs showed similar group membership patterns, but direct interactions involving touch occurred at a rate two orders of magnitude higher between lambs and reproductive ewes than between any classes of adults or yearlings, and one order of magnitude higher than direct interactions between multiple lambs. Although yearlings and non-reproductive bighorn ewes regularly carried M. ovipneumoniae, our models suggest that a contact with an infected reproductive ewe had approximately five times the odds of producing a lamb mortality event of an identical contact with an infected dry ewe or yearling. Consequently, management actions targeting infected animals might lead to unnecessary removal of young animals that carry pathogens but rarely transmit. This analysis demonstrates a simple logistic regression approach for testing a priori
Return-to-work barriers for workers with contact dermatitis.
Holness, D Linn
2003-12-01
There is little information available regarding barriers to return-to-work (RTW) in workers with contact dermatitis. The purpose of this study was to survey occupational health and safety personnel to determine their perceptions regarding RTW barriers for workers with contact dermatitis. The study was conducted during an occupational health and safety research conference attended by stakeholders from labour, management, injured workers, government, safety associations, occupational health and safety practitioners and researchers. The attendees were presented with 3 pictures of varying degrees of work-related hand contact dermatitis and were asked to list the 3 key barriers or challenges in RTW for individuals with contact dermatitis. 21 individuals completed the survey. Issues identified in descending order of frequency were concern of ongoing dermatitis, ability to do the job safely, appearance, ability to accommodate, personal protective equipment, fear that the rash was contagious, workplace attitudes and pain. While some of these issues are potentially common to RTW situations in general, others are more specific to health problems which have a visible manifestation. Increased awareness of and attention to these possible barriers to RTW may lead to better RTW outcomes.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Olivera Blagojevic Popovic
2018-03-01
Full Text Available In the hotel industry, it is a well-known fact that, despite of quality and variety of services provided, there is a low probability that the guests will return. This research is focused on identifying the basic factors of the hotel offer, which could determine the influence on the correlation between the guests’ satisfaction and the probability of their return. The objective of the article is to explore the relationship between the guests’ satisfaction with the quality hotel services in total (including the tourist offer of the place and the probability of his return to the same destination. The questionnaire method was applied in the survey, and the data were analysed based on factor analysis. Thereafter, the model for forecasting the probability of the guests returning to the destination was established, by using the example of Montenegrin tourism. The model represents a defined framework for the guest’s decision-making process. It identifies two main characteristics of guest experiences: satisfaction and rated quality (of the destination’s overall hotel service and tourist offer. The same model evaluates the impact of the above factors on the probability of the guests’ returning to the same destination. The starting hypothesis was the existence of a high degree of correlation between the guests’ satisfaction (with the destination’s hotel services and tourist offer and the probability of returning to the selected Montenegrin destinations. The research confirmed the above-mentioned hypothesis. The results have revealed that there are significant differences in perceived quality, i.e. satisfaction between the target groups of Eastern and Western European tourists
Return to contact sports following infectious mononucleosis: the role of serial ultrasonography.
O'Connor, Tony E; Skinner, Liam J; Kiely, Patrick; Fenton, John E
2011-08-01
Splenic rupture is a rare but potentially fatal complication of infectious mononucleosis. Athletes returning to contact sports following infectious mononucleosis are at potential risk of splenic rupture secondary to abdominal trauma. No clear consensus exists as to when it is safe to allow these athletes to return to contact sports. Suggested periods of abstinence have ranged from 2 weeks to 6 months. We outline our experiences with the use of abdominal ultrasonography at 1 month after the diagnosis of infectious mononucleosis as a means of determining when athletes can safely return to contact sports. Our study group was made up of 19 such patients (mean age: 16.7 yr). We found that 16 of these patients (84%) had normal splenic dimensions on ultrasonography 1 month after diagnosis, and they were therefore allowed to return to contact sports. While the remaining 3 patients had an enlarged spleen at 1 month, their splenic dimensions had all returned to normal when ultrasonographic examination was repeated at 2 months postdiagnosis. We conclude that serial abdominal ultrasonography allows for informed decision making in determining when athletes can safely return to contact sports following infectious mononucleosis.
Variation of Time Domain Failure Probabilities of Jack-up with Wave Return Periods
Idris, Ahmad; Harahap, Indra S. H.; Ali, Montassir Osman Ahmed
2018-04-01
This study evaluated failure probabilities of jack up units on the framework of time dependent reliability analysis using uncertainty from different sea states representing different return period of the design wave. Surface elevation for each sea state was represented by Karhunen-Loeve expansion method using the eigenfunctions of prolate spheroidal wave functions in order to obtain the wave load. The stochastic wave load was propagated on a simplified jack up model developed in commercial software to obtain the structural response due to the wave loading. Analysis of the stochastic response to determine the failure probability in excessive deck displacement in the framework of time dependent reliability analysis was performed by developing Matlab codes in a personal computer. Results from the study indicated that the failure probability increases with increase in the severity of the sea state representing a longer return period. Although the results obtained are in agreement with the results of a study of similar jack up model using time independent method at higher values of maximum allowable deck displacement, it is in contrast at lower values of the criteria where the study reported that failure probability decreases with increase in the severity of the sea state.
Li, Ning; Liu, Xueqin; Xie, Wei; Wu, Jidong; Zhang, Peng
2013-01-01
New features of natural disasters have been observed over the last several years. The factors that influence the disasters' formation mechanisms, regularity of occurrence and main characteristics have been revealed to be more complicated and diverse in nature than previously thought. As the uncertainty involved increases, the variables need to be examined further. This article discusses the importance and the shortage of multivariate analysis of natural disasters and presents a method to estimate the joint probability of the return periods and perform a risk analysis. Severe dust storms from 1990 to 2008 in Inner Mongolia were used as a case study to test this new methodology, as they are normal and recurring climatic phenomena on Earth. Based on the 79 investigated events and according to the dust storm definition with bivariate, the joint probability distribution of severe dust storms was established using the observed data of maximum wind speed and duration. The joint return periods of severe dust storms were calculated, and the relevant risk was analyzed according to the joint probability. The copula function is able to simulate severe dust storm disasters accurately. The joint return periods generated are closer to those observed in reality than the univariate return periods and thus have more value in severe dust storm disaster mitigation, strategy making, program design, and improvement of risk management. This research may prove useful in risk-based decision making. The exploration of multivariate analysis methods can also lay the foundation for further applications in natural disaster risk analysis. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.
Quantum return probability of a system of N non-interacting lattice fermions
Krapivsky, P. L.; Luck, J. M.; Mallick, K.
2018-02-01
We consider N non-interacting fermions performing continuous-time quantum walks on a one-dimensional lattice. The system is launched from a most compact configuration where the fermions occupy neighboring sites. We calculate exactly the quantum return probability (sometimes referred to as the Loschmidt echo) of observing the very same compact state at a later time t. Remarkably, this probability depends on the parity of the fermion number—it decays as a power of time for even N, while for odd N it exhibits periodic oscillations modulated by a decaying power law. The exponent also slightly depends on the parity of N, and is roughly twice smaller than what it would be in the continuum limit. We also consider the same problem, and obtain similar results, in the presence of an impenetrable wall at the origin constraining the particles to remain on the positive half-line. We derive closed-form expressions for the amplitudes of the power-law decay of the return probability in all cases. The key point in the derivation is the use of Mehta integrals, which are limiting cases of the Selberg integral.
Coleman, Margaret S; Marienau, Karen J; Marano, Nina; Marks, Suzanne M; Cetron, Martin S
2014-01-01
In 2011, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention modified its 2008 protocol for flight-related tuberculosis contact investigation initiation. The 2011 Modified protocol was implemented and replaced the 2008 CDC protocol based on comparative epidemiologic and economic analyses; this publication reports the economic analysis results. A return on investment model compared relative changes in tuberculosis disease treatment costs resulting from expenditures on tuberculosis contact investigations and latent tuberculosis infection treatment for the 2008 CDC and Modified protocols. At moderate/high rates of latent tuberculosis infection and tuberculosis disease, positive returns on investment indicated each $1.00 spent on tuberculosis contact investigations and latent tuberculosis treatment resulted in more than $1.00 of savings from reduced tuberculosis disease treatment costs. Low rates of latent tuberculosis infection and tuberculosis disease resulted in negative returns on investment, indicating economic losses from tuberculosis disease treatment costs. There were smaller economic losses at low latent tuberculosis infection and tuberculosis disease rates with the Modified protocol in comparison to the 2008 CDC protocol, while both identified comparable numbers of persons at risk for tuberculosis. The Modified protocol for conducting flight-related tuberculosis contact investigations represents a better use of resources and protects public health. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
Pairwise contact energy statistical potentials can help to find probability of point mutations.
Saravanan, K M; Suvaithenamudhan, S; Parthasarathy, S; Selvaraj, S
2017-01-01
To adopt a particular fold, a protein requires several interactions between its amino acid residues. The energetic contribution of these residue-residue interactions can be approximated by extracting statistical potentials from known high resolution structures. Several methods based on statistical potentials extracted from unrelated proteins are found to make a better prediction of probability of point mutations. We postulate that the statistical potentials extracted from known structures of similar folds with varying sequence identity can be a powerful tool to examine probability of point mutation. By keeping this in mind, we have derived pairwise residue and atomic contact energy potentials for the different functional families that adopt the (α/β) 8 TIM-Barrel fold. We carried out computational point mutations at various conserved residue positions in yeast Triose phosphate isomerase enzyme for which experimental results are already reported. We have also performed molecular dynamics simulations on a subset of point mutants to make a comparative study. The difference in pairwise residue and atomic contact energy of wildtype and various point mutations reveals probability of mutations at a particular position. Interestingly, we found that our computational prediction agrees with the experimental studies of Silverman et al. (Proc Natl Acad Sci 2001;98:3092-3097) and perform better prediction than i Mutant and Cologne University Protein Stability Analysis Tool. The present work thus suggests deriving pairwise contact energy potentials and molecular dynamics simulations of functionally important folds could help us to predict probability of point mutations which may ultimately reduce the time and cost of mutation experiments. Proteins 2016; 85:54-64. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
Shiryaev, A N
1996-01-01
This book contains a systematic treatment of probability from the ground up, starting with intuitive ideas and gradually developing more sophisticated subjects, such as random walks, martingales, Markov chains, ergodic theory, weak convergence of probability measures, stationary stochastic processes, and the Kalman-Bucy filter Many examples are discussed in detail, and there are a large number of exercises The book is accessible to advanced undergraduates and can be used as a text for self-study This new edition contains substantial revisions and updated references The reader will find a deeper study of topics such as the distance between probability measures, metrization of weak convergence, and contiguity of probability measures Proofs for a number of some important results which were merely stated in the first edition have been added The author included new material on the probability of large deviations, and on the central limit theorem for sums of dependent random variables
The probability of return conditional on migration duration: evidence from Kosovo
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Kotorri Mrika
2017-12-01
Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to conceptualise the migration duration decision within the expected utility maximisation framework, and from that to derive and estimate an empirical proposition. For this purpose, the conceptual framework in Kotorri (2015 is extended where households decide to return to the home country conditional on their migration duration. In the empirical analysis, the Cox proportional hazards model is employed. This analysis is the first to investigate migration duration based on a random sample stemming from the Kosovo census of population conducted in 2011. The findings suggest rather mixed support for the household approach. The hazard to return decreases with income but not nonlinearly. The results indicate that household return migration behaviour is influenced by demographic characteristics, psychic income, and political factors.
On the probability distribution of stock returns in the Mike-Farmer model
Gu, G.-F.; Zhou, W.-X.
2009-02-01
Recently, Mike and Farmer have constructed a very powerful and realistic behavioral model to mimick the dynamic process of stock price formation based on the empirical regularities of order placement and cancelation in a purely order-driven market, which can successfully reproduce the whole distribution of returns, not only the well-known power-law tails, together with several other important stylized facts. There are three key ingredients in the Mike-Farmer (MF) model: the long memory of order signs characterized by the Hurst index Hs, the distribution of relative order prices x in reference to the same best price described by a Student distribution (or Tsallis’ q-Gaussian), and the dynamics of order cancelation. They showed that different values of the Hurst index Hs and the freedom degree αx of the Student distribution can always produce power-law tails in the return distribution fr(r) with different tail exponent αr. In this paper, we study the origin of the power-law tails of the return distribution fr(r) in the MF model, based on extensive simulations with different combinations of the left part L(x) for x 0 of fx(x). We find that power-law tails appear only when L(x) has a power-law tail, no matter R(x) has a power-law tail or not. In addition, we find that the distributions of returns in the MF model at different timescales can be well modeled by the Student distributions, whose tail exponents are close to the well-known cubic law and increase with the timescale.
Park, Junehyeong; Sung, Jang Hyun; Lim, Yoon-Jin; Kang, Hyun-Suk
2018-05-01
The widely used meteorological drought index, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), basically assumes stationarity, but recent changes in the climate have led to a need to review this hypothesis. In this study, a new non-stationary SPI that considers not only the modified probability distribution parameter but also the return period under the non-stationary process was proposed. The results were evaluated for two severe drought cases during the last 10 years in South Korea. As a result, SPIs considered that the non-stationary hypothesis underestimated the drought severity than the stationary SPI despite that these past two droughts were recognized as significantly severe droughts. It may be caused by that the variances of summer and autumn precipitation become larger over time then it can make the probability distribution wider than before. This implies that drought expressions by statistical index such as SPI can be distorted by stationary assumption and cautious approach is needed when deciding drought level considering climate changes.
Should close contacts of returning travellers with typhoid fever be protected by vaccination?
Kantele, A
2015-03-17
Increasing international travel to areas endemic for typhoid fever correlates with increased risk for travellers to contract the disease. At home, the acutely ill/convalescent patients may pose some risk to their close contacts. In Finland an unofficial guideline suggests vaccination for close contacts of patients with acute typhoid fever; in other developed countries, routine typhoid vaccinations are only recommended to contacts of chronic carriers. This paper discusses the possibilities and limitations of prophylactic/post-exposure typhoid vaccination for contacts of patients with acute disease. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Milles, Jeffrey L; Gallizzi, Michael A; Sherman, Seth L; Smith, Patrick A; Choma, Theodore J
2014-09-01
Transient quadriplegia is a rare injury that can change the course of an athlete's career if misdiagnosed or managed inappropriately. The clinician should be well versed in the return-to-play criteria for this type of injury. Unfortunately, when an unknown preexisting syrinx is present in the athlete, there is less guidance on their ability to return to play. This case report and review of the current literature illustrates a National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) Division I football player who suffered a transient quadriplegic event during a kickoff return that subsequently was found to have an incidental cervical syrinx on magnetic resonance imaging. The player was able to have a full neurologic recovery, but ultimately he was withheld from football.
Siettos, Constantinos I.; Anastassopoulou, Cleo; Russo, Lucia; Grigoras, Christos; Mylonakis, Eleftherios
2016-06-01
Based on multiscale agent-based computations we estimated the per-contact probability of transmission by age of the Ebola virus disease (EVD) that swept through Liberia from May 2014 to March 2015. For the approximation of the epidemic dynamics we have developed a detailed agent-based model with small-world interactions between individuals categorized by age. For the estimation of the structure of the evolving contact network as well as the per-contact transmission probabilities by age group we exploited the so called Equation-Free framework. Model parameters were fitted to official case counts reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) as well as to recently published data of key epidemiological variables, such as the mean time to death, recovery and the case fatality rate.
Huddleston, Lisa L.; Roeder, William; Merceret, Francis J.
2010-01-01
A technique has been developed to calculate the probability that any nearby lightning stroke is within any radius of any point of interest. In practice, this provides the probability that a nearby lightning stroke was within a key distance of a facility, rather than the error ellipses centered on the stroke. This process takes the current bivariate Gaussian distribution of probability density provided by the current lightning location error ellipse for the most likely location of a lightning stroke and integrates it to get the probability that the stroke is inside any specified radius. This new facility-centric technique will be much more useful to the space launch customers and may supersede the lightning error ellipse approach discussed in [5], [6].
Tachibana, Tomihisa; Tanahashi, Katsuto; Mochizuki, Toshimitsu; Shirasawa, Katsuhiko; Takato, Hidetaka
2018-04-01
Bifacial interdigitated-back-contact (IBC) silicon solar cells with a high bifaciality of 0.91 were fabricated. Screen printing and firing technology were used to reduce the production cost. For the first time, the relationship between the rear side structure and carrier collection probability was evaluated using internal quantum efficiency (IQE) mapping. The measurement results showed that the screen-printed electrode and back surface field (BSF) area led to low IQE. The low carrier collection probability by BSF area can be explained by electrical shading effects. Thus, it is clear that the IQE mapping system is useful to evaluate the IBC cell.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Roriz Luciano Machado
2013-04-01
Full Text Available O conhecimento da erosividade das chuvas associada à probabilidade de ocorrência e ao período de retorno pode contribuir para o planejamento conservacionista de uma região, em médio e longo prazo. A fim de gerar informações para melhor utilizar modelos e controle da erosão, dados de chuvas de 30 séries pluviográficas e pluviométricas, abrangendo 25 municípios, entre 1933 e 2006, foram estudados quanto à adequação das séries e do cálculo da probabilidade de ocorrência teórica (P e período de retorno (T da erosividade das chuvas (EI30 e KE>25, para o Estado do Rio de Janeiro. Foi feita a espacialização do potencial erosivo associado aos períodos de retorno de 2, 5, 10, 20, 50 e 100 anos para todo o Estado. A erosividade anual média (EI30 ou fator R da USLE para qualquer localidade no Estado do Rio de Janeiro pode ser igualada ou superada pelo menos uma vez, em média, em um período de 1,8 a 2,1 anos, com faixa de 48,5 a 54,9 % de probabilidade de ocorrência teórica. As localidades que apresentam maior erosividade associada aos períodos de retorno estão situadas nas mesorregiões Metropolitanas e em partes das mesorregiões Sul e Centro Fluminense. Foi possível identificar de oito a 12 regiões homogêneas, quanto à distribuição espacial da erosividade associada aos períodos de retorno de dois para 100 anos no Estado. De modo geral, a maior variação da distribuição espacial da erosividade apresenta-se na faixa de período de retorno de dois a cinco anos.Knowledge on rainfall erosivity associated to occurrence probability and return periods can contribute to conservation planning in the medium and long term. With the objective of generating information for a better use of medium and long-term erosion models and erosion control, rainfall data of 30 pluviometric and pluviographic data sets from 25 cities ranging from 1933 to 2006 were studied in terms of adjustment of data sets, calculation of the probability of
Return to sports after shoulder arthroplasty
Johnson, Christine C; Johnson, Daniel J; Liu, Joseph N; Dines, Joshua S; Dines, David M; Gulotta, Lawrence V; Garcia, Grant H
2016-01-01
Many patients prioritize the ability to return to sports following shoulder replacement surgeries, including total shoulder arthroplasty (TSA), reverse total shoulder arthroplasty (RTSA), and hemiarthroplasty (HA). While activity levels after hip and knee replacements have been well-established in the literature, studies on this topic in the field of shoulder arthroplasty are relatively limited. A review of the literature regarding athletic activity after shoulder arthroplasty was performed using the PubMed database. All studies relevant to shoulder arthroplasty and return to sport were included. The majority of patients returned to their prior level of activity within six months following TSA, RTSA, and shoulder HA. Noncontact, low demand activities are permitted by most surgeons postoperatively and generally have higher return rates than contact sports or high-demand activities. In some series, patients reported an improvement in their ability to participate in sports following the arthroplasty procedure. The rates of return to sports following TSA (75%-100%) are slightly higher than those reported for HA (67%-76%) and RTSA (75%-85%). Patients undergoing TSA, RTSA, and shoulder HA should be counseled that there is a high probability that they will be able to return to their preoperative activity level within six months postoperatively. TSA has been associated with higher rates of return to sports than RTSA and HA, although this may reflect differences in patient population or surgical indication. PMID:27672564
Jones, Jefferson; Klein, Ron; Popescu, Saskia; Rose, Karen; Kretschmer, Melissa; Carrigan, Alice; Trembath, Felicia; Koski, Lia; Zabel, Karen; Ostdiek, Scott; Rowell-Kinnard, Paula; Munoz, Esther; Sunenshine, Rebecca; Sylvester, Tammy
2015-08-07
On January 23, 2015, the Maricopa County Department of Public Health (MCDPH) was notified of a suspected measles case in a nurse, a woman aged 48 years. On January 11, the nurse had contact with a patient with laboratory-confirmed measles associated with the Disneyland theme park-related outbreak in California. On January 21, she developed a fever (103°F [39.4°C]), on January 23 she experienced cough and coryza, and on January 24, she developed a rash. The patient was instructed to isolate herself at home. On January 26, serum, a nasopharyngeal swab, and a urine specimen were collected. The following day, measles infection was diagnosed by real time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction testing of the nasopharyngeal swab and urine specimen and by detection of measles-specific immunoglobulin (Ig)M and IgG in serum by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Because of her symptoms and laboratory results, the patient was considered to be infectious.
Taylor, Holly A; Wilfond, Benjamin S
2013-01-01
This case explores the ethical landscape around recontacting a subject's relatives to return genetic research results when the informed consent form signed by the original cohort of subjects is silent on whether investigators may share new information with the research subject's family. As a result of rapid advances in genetic technology, methods to identify genetic markers can mature during the life course of a study. In this case, the investigators identified the genetic mutation responsible for the disorder after a number of their original subjects had died. The researchers now have the ability to inform relatives of the subject about their risk of developing the same disease. Mark Rothstein, JD, from the University of Louisville School of Medicine, provides an overview of the medical/scientific, legal, and ethical issues underlying this case. Lauren Milner, PhD, and colleagues at Stanford University explore how the relationship between researcher and subject affect this debate. Seema Shah, JD, and colleagues at the National Institutes of Health and University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) discuss whether and how requirements of the duty to warn are applicable in this case.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Asmussen, Søren; Albrecher, Hansjörg
The book gives a comprehensive treatment of the classical and modern ruin probability theory. Some of the topics are Lundberg's inequality, the Cramér-Lundberg approximation, exact solutions, other approximations (e.g., for heavy-tailed claim size distributions), finite horizon ruin probabilities......, extensions of the classical compound Poisson model to allow for reserve-dependent premiums, Markov-modulation, periodicity, change of measure techniques, phase-type distributions as a computational vehicle and the connection to other applied probability areas, like queueing theory. In this substantially...... updated and extended second version, new topics include stochastic control, fluctuation theory for Levy processes, Gerber–Shiu functions and dependence....
Generalized Probability-Probability Plots
Mushkudiani, N.A.; Einmahl, J.H.J.
2004-01-01
We introduce generalized Probability-Probability (P-P) plots in order to study the one-sample goodness-of-fit problem and the two-sample problem, for real valued data.These plots, that are constructed by indexing with the class of closed intervals, globally preserve the properties of classical P-P
Shiryaev, Albert N
2016-01-01
This book contains a systematic treatment of probability from the ground up, starting with intuitive ideas and gradually developing more sophisticated subjects, such as random walks, martingales, Markov chains, the measure-theoretic foundations of probability theory, weak convergence of probability measures, and the central limit theorem. Many examples are discussed in detail, and there are a large number of exercises. The book is accessible to advanced undergraduates and can be used as a text for independent study. To accommodate the greatly expanded material in the third edition of Probability, the book is now divided into two volumes. This first volume contains updated references and substantial revisions of the first three chapters of the second edition. In particular, new material has been added on generating functions, the inclusion-exclusion principle, theorems on monotonic classes (relying on a detailed treatment of “π-λ” systems), and the fundamental theorems of mathematical statistics.
Earth Data Analysis Center, University of New Mexico — USFS, State Forestry, BLM, and DOI fire occurrence point locations from 1987 to 2008 were combined and converted into a fire occurrence probability or density grid...
Quantum Probabilities as Behavioral Probabilities
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Vyacheslav I. Yukalov
2017-03-01
Full Text Available We demonstrate that behavioral probabilities of human decision makers share many common features with quantum probabilities. This does not imply that humans are some quantum objects, but just shows that the mathematics of quantum theory is applicable to the description of human decision making. The applicability of quantum rules for describing decision making is connected with the nontrivial process of making decisions in the case of composite prospects under uncertainty. Such a process involves deliberations of a decision maker when making a choice. In addition to the evaluation of the utilities of considered prospects, real decision makers also appreciate their respective attractiveness. Therefore, human choice is not based solely on the utility of prospects, but includes the necessity of resolving the utility-attraction duality. In order to justify that human consciousness really functions similarly to the rules of quantum theory, we develop an approach defining human behavioral probabilities as the probabilities determined by quantum rules. We show that quantum behavioral probabilities of humans do not merely explain qualitatively how human decisions are made, but they predict quantitative values of the behavioral probabilities. Analyzing a large set of empirical data, we find good quantitative agreement between theoretical predictions and observed experimental data.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Rojas-Nandayapa, Leonardo
Tail probabilities of sums of heavy-tailed random variables are of a major importance in various branches of Applied Probability, such as Risk Theory, Queueing Theory, Financial Management, and are subject to intense research nowadays. To understand their relevance one just needs to think...... analytic expression for the distribution function of a sum of random variables. The presence of heavy-tailed random variables complicates the problem even more. The objective of this dissertation is to provide better approximations by means of sharp asymptotic expressions and Monte Carlo estimators...
Grinstead, Charles M; Snell, J Laurie
2011-01-01
This book explores four real-world topics through the lens of probability theory. It can be used to supplement a standard text in probability or statistics. Most elementary textbooks present the basic theory and then illustrate the ideas with some neatly packaged examples. Here the authors assume that the reader has seen, or is learning, the basic theory from another book and concentrate in some depth on the following topics: streaks, the stock market, lotteries, and fingerprints. This extended format allows the authors to present multiple approaches to problems and to pursue promising side discussions in ways that would not be possible in a book constrained to cover a fixed set of topics. To keep the main narrative accessible, the authors have placed the more technical mathematical details in appendices. The appendices can be understood by someone who has taken one or two semesters of calculus.
Dorogovtsev, A Ya; Skorokhod, A V; Silvestrov, D S; Skorokhod, A V
1997-01-01
This book of problems is intended for students in pure and applied mathematics. There are problems in traditional areas of probability theory and problems in the theory of stochastic processes, which has wide applications in the theory of automatic control, queuing and reliability theories, and in many other modern science and engineering fields. Answers to most of the problems are given, and the book provides hints and solutions for more complicated problems.
Trifonov, N. N.; Svyatkin, F. A.; Sintsova, T. G.; Ukhanova, M. G.; Yesin, S. B.; Nikolayenkova, E. K.; Yurchenko, A. Yu.; Grigorieva, E. B.
2016-03-01
The regeneration system heaters are one of the sources of possible ingress of the water into the turbine. The water penetrates into the turbine either at the heaters overflow or with the return flow of steam generated when the water being in the heater boils up in the dynamic operation modes or at deenergization of the power-generating unit. The return flow of steam and water is dangerous to the turbine blades and can result in the rotor acceleration. The known protective devices used to prevent the overflow of the low-pressure and high-pressure heaters (LPH and HPH), of the horizontal and vertical heaters of heating-system water (HWH and VWH), as well as of the deaerators and low-pressure mixing heaters (LPMH) were considered. The main protective methods of the steam and water return flows supplied by the heaters in dynamic operation modes or at deenergization of the power-generating unit are described. Previous operating experience shows that the available protections do not fully prevent water ingress into the turbine and the rotor acceleration and, therefore, the development of measures to decrease the possibility of ingress of the water into the turbine is an actual problem. The measures allowing eliminating or reducing the water mass in the heaters are expounded; some of them were designed by the specialists of OAO Polzunov Scientific and Development Association on Research and Design of Power Equipment (NPO CKTI) and are efficiently introduced at heat power plants and nuclear power plants. The suggested technical solutions allow reducing the possibility of the water ingress into the turbine and rotor acceleration by return steam flow in the dynamic operation modes or in the case of power generating unit deenergization. Some of these solutions have been tested in experimental-industrial exploitation and can be used in industry.
Computing return times or return periods with rare event algorithms
Lestang, Thibault; Ragone, Francesco; Bréhier, Charles-Edouard; Herbert, Corentin; Bouchet, Freddy
2018-04-01
The average time between two occurrences of the same event, referred to as its return time (or return period), is a useful statistical concept for practical applications. For instance insurances or public agencies may be interested by the return time of a 10 m flood of the Seine river in Paris. However, due to their scarcity, reliably estimating return times for rare events is very difficult using either observational data or direct numerical simulations. For rare events, an estimator for return times can be built from the extrema of the observable on trajectory blocks. Here, we show that this estimator can be improved to remain accurate for return times of the order of the block size. More importantly, we show that this approach can be generalised to estimate return times from numerical algorithms specifically designed to sample rare events. So far those algorithms often compute probabilities, rather than return times. The approach we propose provides a computationally extremely efficient way to estimate numerically the return times of rare events for a dynamical system, gaining several orders of magnitude of computational costs. We illustrate the method on two kinds of observables, instantaneous and time-averaged, using two different rare event algorithms, for a simple stochastic process, the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process. As an example of realistic applications to complex systems, we finally discuss extreme values of the drag on an object in a turbulent flow.
2010-12-10
... DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY Internal Revenue Service 26 CFR Parts 1 and 301 [REG-100194-10] RIN 1545-BJ52 Specified Tax Return Preparers Required To File Individual Income Tax Returns Using Magnetic... for ``specified tax return prepares,''. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Keith L. Brau at (202) 622...
Robert J. Barro; Sanjay P. Misra
2013-01-01
From 1836 to 2011, the average real rate of price change for gold in the United States is 1.1% per year and the standard deviation is 13.1%, implying a one-standard-deviation confidence band for the mean of (0.1%, 2.1%). The covariances of gold's real rate of price change with consumption and GDP growth rates are small and statistically insignificantly different from zero. These negligible covariances suggest that gold's expected real rate of return--which includes an unobserved dividend yiel...
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Agergaard, Jytte; Brøgger, Ditte
2016-01-01
flows. By focusing on these educational migrants, this paper explores how they connect to their rural homes. Guided by a critical reading of the migration-development scholarship, the paper examines how migrants and their relatives make sense of educational migrants’ remitting and returning practices......, and by comparing three groups of educational migrants, the migrants’ reasons for staying connected and sending remittances are scrutinized. The paper finds that although educational migrants do not generate extensive economic remittances for local development in Nepal, they stay connected to their rural homes...
Nelde, Peter Hans
1995-01-01
Examines the phenomenon of language contact and recent trends in linguistic contact research, which focuses on language use, language users, and language spheres. Also discusses the role of linguistic and cultural conflicts in language contact situations. (13 references) (MDM)
Probability Aggregates in Probability Answer Set Programming
Saad, Emad
2013-01-01
Probability answer set programming is a declarative programming that has been shown effective for representing and reasoning about a variety of probability reasoning tasks. However, the lack of probability aggregates, e.g. {\\em expected values}, in the language of disjunctive hybrid probability logic programs (DHPP) disallows the natural and concise representation of many interesting problems. In this paper, we extend DHPP to allow arbitrary probability aggregates. We introduce two types of p...
Return probabilities for the reflected random walk on N_0
Essifi, R.; Peigné, M.
2015-01-01
Let \\((Y_n)\\) be a sequence of i.i.d. \\(\\mathbb{Z }\\)-valued random variables with law \\(\\mu \\). The reflected random walk \\((X_n)\\) is defined recursively by \\(X_0=x \\in \\mathbb{N }_0, X_{n+1}=\\vert X_n+Y_{n+1}\\vert \\). Under mild hypotheses on the law \\(\\mu \\), it is proved that, for any \\( y \\in
Scaling Qualitative Probability
Burgin, Mark
2017-01-01
There are different approaches to qualitative probability, which includes subjective probability. We developed a representation of qualitative probability based on relational systems, which allows modeling uncertainty by probability structures and is more coherent than existing approaches. This setting makes it possible proving that any comparative probability is induced by some probability structure (Theorem 2.1), that classical probability is a probability structure (Theorem 2.2) and that i...
Briggs, William M.
2012-01-01
The probability leakage of model M with respect to evidence E is defined. Probability leakage is a kind of model error. It occurs when M implies that events $y$, which are impossible given E, have positive probability. Leakage does not imply model falsification. Models with probability leakage cannot be calibrated empirically. Regression models, which are ubiquitous in statistical practice, often evince probability leakage.
Koo, Reginald; Jones, Martin L.
2011-01-01
Quite a number of interesting problems in probability feature an event with probability equal to 1/e. This article discusses three such problems and attempts to explain why this probability occurs with such frequency.
Goldberg, Samuel
1960-01-01
Excellent basic text covers set theory, probability theory for finite sample spaces, binomial theorem, probability distributions, means, standard deviations, probability function of binomial distribution, more. Includes 360 problems with answers for half.
Quantum probability measures and tomographic probability densities
Amosov, GG; Man'ko, [No Value
2004-01-01
Using a simple relation of the Dirac delta-function to generalized the theta-function, the relationship between the tomographic probability approach and the quantum probability measure approach with the description of quantum states is discussed. The quantum state tomogram expressed in terms of the
Toward a generalized probability theory: conditional probabilities
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cassinelli, G.
1979-01-01
The main mathematical object of interest in the quantum logic approach to the foundations of quantum mechanics is the orthomodular lattice and a set of probability measures, or states, defined by the lattice. This mathematical structure is studied per se, independently from the intuitive or physical motivation of its definition, as a generalized probability theory. It is thought that the building-up of such a probability theory could eventually throw light on the mathematical structure of Hilbert-space quantum mechanics as a particular concrete model of the generalized theory. (Auth.)
Returns to beauty over the life course
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Jæger, Mads Meier
’ facial attractiveness as well as data on SES, marital, and health outcomes from their mid-20s to their mid-60s. I find that beauty has lasting positive returns for women since more beautiful women have higher SES throughout their working life, have a higher probability of being married at age 25......, and marry high-SES husbands. I find no effects of beauty on health and, in general, no returns to beauty for men....
Predictability of Stock Returns
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ahmet Sekreter
2017-06-01
Full Text Available Predictability of stock returns has been shown by empirical studies over time. This article collects the most important theories on forecasting stock returns and investigates the factors that affecting behavior of the stocks’ prices and the market as a whole. Estimation of the factors and the way of estimation are the key issues of predictability of stock returns.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
A. S. Dias
2003-04-01
Loss Equation to predict erosion losses and for conservation planning requires an evaluation of index values of local rainfall erosivity. As a contribution to knowledge on these indexes in the coastal zone of Ceará State, the objectives of this study were: (a to determine the R factor and the annual EI30 index values, its monthly distribution, probability of occurrence and return periods in Fortaleza, Ceará State, Brazil for the period of 1962 to 1981, and (b to create a data bank that allows, by a subsequent analysis, the assessment of correlation between the EI30 index and monthly rainfall amounts in order to simplify the index calculation and to update its values for the years 1982 to 2000. Total rainfall kinetic energy, uniform intensities, maximum 30 minutes intensity and the EI30 index for individual rainstorms were determined on 7,300 daily rain gauge charts from 1962 to 1981, available at the Meteorological Station of the Federal University of Ceará, in Fortaleza. The distribution frequency for the maximum individual and annual EI30 values and their return periods were calculated and plotted on curves of occurrence probability of these values. Over the 20 years period, the R factor found in Fortaleza was 6,774 in a range from 2,237 to 12,881 MJ mm (ha h y-1 and this average annual value is expected to occur, or to be exceeded, at least once in 2.2 years with an occurrence probability of 46 %. Maximum individual EI30 values estimated for return periods of 2, 5, 20, 50 and 100 years were 1,363, 2,415, 3,783, 5,950 and 8,000 MJ mm (ha h-1, respectively. Distribution of the local erosivity showed that 97 % of the annual EI30 occurs in the first semester of the year. Highest soil and water losses are to be expected during the months of February to May, since 70 % of the annual erosivity index value occurs in this quarter of the year, when conventional tillage is used for seedbed preparation and the canopy is incipient.
Quantitative Planetary Protection for Sample Return from Ocean Worlds
Neveu, Marc; Takano, Yoshinori; Porco, Carolyn; McKay, Christopher P.; Glavin, Daniel; Anbar, Ariel; Sherwood, Brent; Yano, Hajime
2016-07-01
the sample [undergoes] sterilization […], the sample container must be sealed [via] fail-safe containment with a method for verification of its operation before Earth return;" (B2) "for unsterilized samples, […] containment […] shall be maintained until [sample transfer to] an appropriate receiving facility;" (B3) "a method to 'break the chain of contact' with the target" be specified; (B4) "no uncontained hardware that contacted the target […] shall be returned to Earth;" (B5) "reviews and approval of the continuation of the flight mission shall be required [prior to] launch from Earth; leaving the target for return to Earth; and commitment to Earth reentry;" and (B6) "life detection and biohazard testing, or a proven sterilization process, shall be [a] precondition for the controlled distribution of […] the sample." These provisions and their means of evaluation could be quantified. A maximum leakage rate could be specified for particles above 10 nm (the size of prions, the smallest known pathogens [21]) (B1-B2), even for terminal velocity impact, whether unintended or otherwise (minimizing the risk of failure of reentry system elements, but requiring preservation of the samples and of sensors monitoring their thermal and structural integrity). For leak detection, He is commonly used [22], but its van-der-Waals radius of 0.14 nm could place too stringent a constraint for containment of pathogens over 70 times larger. To meet (B3)-(B4), uncontained parts in contact with ocean world material could be jettisoned prior to reentry with maximum probabilities of Earth/Moon impact, or of microbial survival upon reentry. (B6) could require either life detection prior to or after opening the sealed container [16,23-25], or sterilization [26]. Further guidance on (1) evaluating the 10 ^{-4} probability of forward contamination, (2) possibly extending this probability to ocean worlds other than Europa, (3) quantifying backward PP requirements, and (4) assessing the
Philosophical theories of probability
Gillies, Donald
2000-01-01
The Twentieth Century has seen a dramatic rise in the use of probability and statistics in almost all fields of research. This has stimulated many new philosophical ideas on probability. Philosophical Theories of Probability is the first book to present a clear, comprehensive and systematic account of these various theories and to explain how they relate to one another. Gillies also offers a distinctive version of the propensity theory of probability, and the intersubjective interpretation, which develops the subjective theory.
Benci, Vieri; Horsten, Leon; Wenmackers, Sylvia
We propose an alternative approach to probability theory closely related to the framework of numerosity theory: non-Archimedean probability (NAP). In our approach, unlike in classical probability theory, all subsets of an infinite sample space are measurable and only the empty set gets assigned
Interpretations of probability
Khrennikov, Andrei
2009-01-01
This is the first fundamental book devoted to non-Kolmogorov probability models. It provides a mathematical theory of negative probabilities, with numerous applications to quantum physics, information theory, complexity, biology and psychology. The book also presents an interesting model of cognitive information reality with flows of information probabilities, describing the process of thinking, social, and psychological phenomena.
: (505) 665-3664 ethics@lanl.gov Journalist queries Communications Office (505) 667-7000 Media contacts programs and employee resources. General Employee directory Emergency communication Communications Office (505) 667-7000 Ethics & Audits Internal Audit: (505) 665-3104 Ethics Office: (505) 667-7506 Fax
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Fraassen, B.C. van
1979-01-01
The interpretation of probabilities in physical theories are considered, whether quantum or classical. The following points are discussed 1) the functions P(μ, Q) in terms of which states and propositions can be represented, are classical (Kolmogoroff) probabilities, formally speaking, 2) these probabilities are generally interpreted as themselves conditional, and the conditions are mutually incompatible where the observables are maximal and 3) testing of the theory typically takes the form of confronting the expectation values of observable Q calculated with probability measures P(μ, Q) for states μ; hence, of comparing the probabilities P(μ, Q)(E) with the frequencies of occurrence of the corresponding events. It seems that even the interpretation of quantum mechanics, in so far as it concerns what the theory says about the empirical (i.e. actual, observable) phenomena, deals with the confrontation of classical probability measures with observable frequencies. This confrontation is studied. (Auth./C.F.)
Predictable return distributions
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Pedersen, Thomas Quistgaard
trace out the entire distribution. A univariate quantile regression model is used to examine stock and bond return distributions individually, while a multivariate model is used to capture their joint distribution. An empirical analysis on US data shows that certain parts of the return distributions......-of-sample analyses show that the relative accuracy of the state variables in predicting future returns varies across the distribution. A portfolio study shows that an investor with power utility can obtain economic gains by applying the empirical return distribution in portfolio decisions instead of imposing...
The quantum probability calculus
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jauch, J.M.
1976-01-01
The Wigner anomaly (1932) for the joint distribution of noncompatible observables is an indication that the classical probability calculus is not applicable for quantum probabilities. It should, therefore, be replaced by another, more general calculus, which is specifically adapted to quantal systems. In this article this calculus is exhibited and its mathematical axioms and the definitions of the basic concepts such as probability field, random variable, and expectation values are given. (B.R.H)
Choice Probability Generating Functions
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel L; Bierlaire, Michel
This paper considers discrete choice, with choice probabilities coming from maximization of preferences from a random utility field perturbed by additive location shifters (ARUM). Any ARUM can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) whose gradient gives the choice...... probabilities, and every CPGF is consistent with an ARUM. We relate CPGF to multivariate extreme value distributions, and review and extend methods for constructing CPGF for applications....
Probability of satellite collision
Mccarter, J. W.
1972-01-01
A method is presented for computing the probability of a collision between a particular artificial earth satellite and any one of the total population of earth satellites. The collision hazard incurred by the proposed modular Space Station is assessed using the technique presented. The results of a parametric study to determine what type of satellite orbits produce the greatest contribution to the total collision probability are presented. Collision probability for the Space Station is given as a function of Space Station altitude and inclination. Collision probability was also parameterized over miss distance and mission duration.
Choice probability generating functions
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel; Bierlaire, Michel
2013-01-01
This paper considers discrete choice, with choice probabilities coming from maximization of preferences from a random utility field perturbed by additive location shifters (ARUM). Any ARUM can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) whose gradient gives the choice...... probabilities, and every CPGF is consistent with an ARUM. We relate CPGF to multivariate extreme value distributions, and review and extend methods for constructing CPGF for applications. The choice probabilities of any ARUM may be approximated by a cross-nested logit model. The results for ARUM are extended...
Florescu, Ionut
2013-01-01
THE COMPLETE COLLECTION NECESSARY FOR A CONCRETE UNDERSTANDING OF PROBABILITY Written in a clear, accessible, and comprehensive manner, the Handbook of Probability presents the fundamentals of probability with an emphasis on the balance of theory, application, and methodology. Utilizing basic examples throughout, the handbook expertly transitions between concepts and practice to allow readers an inclusive introduction to the field of probability. The book provides a useful format with self-contained chapters, allowing the reader easy and quick reference. Each chapter includes an introductio
Ash, Robert B; Lukacs, E
1972-01-01
Real Analysis and Probability provides the background in real analysis needed for the study of probability. Topics covered range from measure and integration theory to functional analysis and basic concepts of probability. The interplay between measure theory and topology is also discussed, along with conditional probability and expectation, the central limit theorem, and strong laws of large numbers with respect to martingale theory.Comprised of eight chapters, this volume begins with an overview of the basic concepts of the theory of measure and integration, followed by a presentation of var
Fluctuation behaviors of financial return volatility duration
Niu, Hongli; Wang, Jun; Lu, Yunfan
2016-04-01
It is of significantly crucial to understand the return volatility of financial markets because it helps to quantify the investment risk, optimize the portfolio, and provide a key input of option pricing models. The characteristics of isolated high volatility events above certain threshold in price fluctuations and the distributions of return intervals between these events arouse great interest in financial research. In the present work, we introduce a new concept of daily return volatility duration, which is defined as the shortest passage time when the future volatility intensity is above or below the current volatility intensity (without predefining a threshold). The statistical properties of the daily return volatility durations for seven representative stock indices from the world financial markets are investigated. Some useful and interesting empirical results of these volatility duration series about the probability distributions, memory effects and multifractal properties are obtained. These results also show that the proposed stock volatility series analysis is a meaningful and beneficial trial.
Classifying Returns as Extreme
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Christiansen, Charlotte
2014-01-01
I consider extreme returns for the stock and bond markets of 14 EU countries using two classification schemes: One, the univariate classification scheme from the previous literature that classifies extreme returns for each market separately, and two, a novel multivariate classification scheme tha...
Freund, John E
1993-01-01
Thorough, lucid coverage of permutations and factorials, probabilities and odds, frequency interpretation, mathematical expectation, decision making, postulates of probability, rule of elimination, binomial distribution, geometric distribution, standard deviation, law of large numbers, and much more. Exercises with some solutions. Summary. Bibliography. Includes 42 black-and-white illustrations. 1973 edition.
Probability, Nondeterminism and Concurrency
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Varacca, Daniele
Nondeterminism is modelled in domain theory by the notion of a powerdomain, while probability is modelled by that of the probabilistic powerdomain. Some problems arise when we want to combine them in order to model computation in which both nondeterminism and probability are present. In particula...
Rocchi, Paolo
2014-01-01
The problem of probability interpretation was long overlooked before exploding in the 20th century, when the frequentist and subjectivist schools formalized two conflicting conceptions of probability. Beyond the radical followers of the two schools, a circle of pluralist thinkers tends to reconcile the opposing concepts. The author uses two theorems in order to prove that the various interpretations of probability do not come into opposition and can be used in different contexts. The goal here is to clarify the multifold nature of probability by means of a purely mathematical approach and to show how philosophical arguments can only serve to deepen actual intellectual contrasts. The book can be considered as one of the most important contributions in the analysis of probability interpretation in the last 10-15 years.
Use of cellular phone contacts to increase return rates for ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Introduction: in Kenya, failure to complete immunization schedules by children who previously accessed immunization services is an obstacle to ensuring that children are fully immunized. Home visit approaches used to track defaulting children have not been successful in reducing the dropout rate. Methods: This study ...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Steven G Luke
2013-07-01
Full Text Available Oculomotor inhibition of return (O-IOR is an increase in saccade latency prior to an eye movement to a recently fixated location compared to other locations. It has been proposed that this temporal O-IOR may have spatial consequences, facilitating foraging by inhibiting return to previously attended regions. In order to test this possibility, participants viewed arrays of objects and of words while their eye movements were recorded. Temporal O-IOR was observed, with equivalent effects for object and word arrays, indicating that temporal O-IOR is an oculomotor phenomenon independent of array content. There was no evidence for spatial inhibition of return. Instead, spatial facilitation of return was observed: Participants were significantly more likely than chance to make return saccades and to refixate just-visited locations. Further, the likelihood of making a return saccade to an object or word was contingent on the amount of time spent viewing that object or word before leaving it. This suggests that, unlike temporal O-IOR, return probability is influenced by cognitive processing. Taken together, these results are inconsistent with the hypothesis that inhibition of return functions as a foraging facilitator. The results also provide strong evidence for a different oculomotor bias that could serve as a foraging facilitator: saccadic momentum, a tendency to repeat the most recently executed saccade program. We suggest that models of visual attention could incorporate saccadic momentum in place of inhibition of return.
The risks and returns of stock investment in a financial market
Li, Jiang-Cheng; Mei, Dong-Cheng
2013-03-01
The risks and returns of stock investment are discussed via numerically simulating the mean escape time and the probability density function of stock price returns in the modified Heston model with time delay. Through analyzing the effects of delay time and initial position on the risks and returns of stock investment, the results indicate that: (i) There is an optimal delay time matching minimal risks of stock investment, maximal average stock price returns and strongest stability of stock price returns for strong elasticity of demand of stocks (EDS), but the opposite results for weak EDS; (ii) The increment of initial position recedes the risks of stock investment, strengthens the average stock price returns and enhances stability of stock price returns. Finally, the probability density function of stock price returns and the probability density function of volatility and the correlation function of stock price returns are compared with other literatures. In addition, good agreements are found between them.
Prioritized Contact Transport Stream
Hunt, Walter Lee, Jr. (Inventor)
2015-01-01
A detection process, contact recognition process, classification process, and identification process are applied to raw sensor data to produce an identified contact record set containing one or more identified contact records. A prioritization process is applied to the identified contact record set to assign a contact priority to each contact record in the identified contact record set. Data are removed from the contact records in the identified contact record set based on the contact priorities assigned to those contact records. A first contact stream is produced from the resulting contact records. The first contact stream is streamed in a contact transport stream. The contact transport stream may include and stream additional contact streams. The contact transport stream may be varied dynamically over time based on parameters such as available bandwidth, contact priority, presence/absence of contacts, system state, and configuration parameters.
Billingsley, Patrick
2012-01-01
Praise for the Third Edition "It is, as far as I'm concerned, among the best books in math ever written....if you are a mathematician and want to have the top reference in probability, this is it." (Amazon.com, January 2006) A complete and comprehensive classic in probability and measure theory Probability and Measure, Anniversary Edition by Patrick Billingsley celebrates the achievements and advancements that have made this book a classic in its field for the past 35 years. Now re-issued in a new style and format, but with the reliable content that the third edition was revered for, this
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bitsakis, E.I.; Nicolaides, C.A.
1989-01-01
The concept of probability is now, and always has been, central to the debate on the interpretation of quantum mechanics. Furthermore, probability permeates all of science, as well as our every day life. The papers included in this volume, written by leading proponents of the ideas expressed, embrace a broad spectrum of thought and results: mathematical, physical epistemological, and experimental, both specific and general. The contributions are arranged in parts under the following headings: Following Schroedinger's thoughts; Probability and quantum mechanics; Aspects of the arguments on nonlocality; Bell's theorem and EPR correlations; Real or Gedanken experiments and their interpretation; Questions about irreversibility and stochasticity; and Epistemology, interpretation and culture. (author). refs.; figs.; tabs
Shorack, Galen R
2017-01-01
This 2nd edition textbook offers a rigorous introduction to measure theoretic probability with particular attention to topics of interest to mathematical statisticians—a textbook for courses in probability for students in mathematical statistics. It is recommended to anyone interested in the probability underlying modern statistics, providing a solid grounding in the probabilistic tools and techniques necessary to do theoretical research in statistics. For the teaching of probability theory to post graduate statistics students, this is one of the most attractive books available. Of particular interest is a presentation of the major central limit theorems via Stein's method either prior to or alternative to a characteristic function presentation. Additionally, there is considerable emphasis placed on the quantile function as well as the distribution function. The bootstrap and trimming are both presented. Martingale coverage includes coverage of censored data martingales. The text includes measure theoretic...
Concepts of probability theory
Pfeiffer, Paul E
1979-01-01
Using the Kolmogorov model, this intermediate-level text discusses random variables, probability distributions, mathematical expectation, random processes, more. For advanced undergraduates students of science, engineering, or math. Includes problems with answers and six appendixes. 1965 edition.
Probability and Bayesian statistics
1987-01-01
This book contains selected and refereed contributions to the "Inter national Symposium on Probability and Bayesian Statistics" which was orga nized to celebrate the 80th birthday of Professor Bruno de Finetti at his birthplace Innsbruck in Austria. Since Professor de Finetti died in 1985 the symposium was dedicated to the memory of Bruno de Finetti and took place at Igls near Innsbruck from 23 to 26 September 1986. Some of the pa pers are published especially by the relationship to Bruno de Finetti's scientific work. The evolution of stochastics shows growing importance of probability as coherent assessment of numerical values as degrees of believe in certain events. This is the basis for Bayesian inference in the sense of modern statistics. The contributions in this volume cover a broad spectrum ranging from foundations of probability across psychological aspects of formulating sub jective probability statements, abstract measure theoretical considerations, contributions to theoretical statistics an...
Probability and Statistical Inference
Prosper, Harrison B.
2006-01-01
These lectures introduce key concepts in probability and statistical inference at a level suitable for graduate students in particle physics. Our goal is to paint as vivid a picture as possible of the concepts covered.
Hartmann, Stephan
2011-01-01
Many results of modern physics--those of quantum mechanics, for instance--come in a probabilistic guise. But what do probabilistic statements in physics mean? Are probabilities matters of objective fact and part of the furniture of the world, as objectivists think? Or do they only express ignorance or belief, as Bayesians suggest? And how are probabilistic hypotheses justified and supported by empirical evidence? Finally, what does the probabilistic nature of physics imply for our understanding of the world? This volume is the first to provide a philosophical appraisal of probabilities in all of physics. Its main aim is to make sense of probabilistic statements as they occur in the various physical theories and models and to provide a plausible epistemology and metaphysics of probabilities. The essays collected here consider statistical physics, probabilistic modelling, and quantum mechanics, and critically assess the merits and disadvantages of objectivist and subjectivist views of probabilities in these fie...
Grimmett, Geoffrey
2014-01-01
Probability is an area of mathematics of tremendous contemporary importance across all aspects of human endeavour. This book is a compact account of the basic features of probability and random processes at the level of first and second year mathematics undergraduates and Masters' students in cognate fields. It is suitable for a first course in probability, plus a follow-up course in random processes including Markov chains. A special feature is the authors' attention to rigorous mathematics: not everything is rigorous, but the need for rigour is explained at difficult junctures. The text is enriched by simple exercises, together with problems (with very brief hints) many of which are taken from final examinations at Cambridge and Oxford. The first eight chapters form a course in basic probability, being an account of events, random variables, and distributions - discrete and continuous random variables are treated separately - together with simple versions of the law of large numbers and the central limit th...
Hemmo, Meir
2012-01-01
What is the role and meaning of probability in physical theory, in particular in two of the most successful theories of our age, quantum physics and statistical mechanics? Laws once conceived as universal and deterministic, such as Newton‘s laws of motion, or the second law of thermodynamics, are replaced in these theories by inherently probabilistic laws. This collection of essays by some of the world‘s foremost experts presents an in-depth analysis of the meaning of probability in contemporary physics. Among the questions addressed are: How are probabilities defined? Are they objective or subjective? What is their explanatory value? What are the differences between quantum and classical probabilities? The result is an informative and thought-provoking book for the scientifically inquisitive.
Probability in quantum mechanics
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
J. G. Gilson
1982-01-01
Full Text Available By using a fluid theory which is an alternative to quantum theory but from which the latter can be deduced exactly, the long-standing problem of how quantum mechanics is related to stochastic processes is studied. It can be seen how the Schrödinger probability density has a relationship to time spent on small sections of an orbit, just as the probability density has in some classical contexts.
Quantum computing and probability.
Ferry, David K
2009-11-25
Over the past two decades, quantum computing has become a popular and promising approach to trying to solve computationally difficult problems. Missing in many descriptions of quantum computing is just how probability enters into the process. Here, we discuss some simple examples of how uncertainty and probability enter, and how this and the ideas of quantum computing challenge our interpretations of quantum mechanics. It is found that this uncertainty can lead to intrinsic decoherence, and this raises challenges for error correction.
Quantum computing and probability
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ferry, David K
2009-01-01
Over the past two decades, quantum computing has become a popular and promising approach to trying to solve computationally difficult problems. Missing in many descriptions of quantum computing is just how probability enters into the process. Here, we discuss some simple examples of how uncertainty and probability enter, and how this and the ideas of quantum computing challenge our interpretations of quantum mechanics. It is found that this uncertainty can lead to intrinsic decoherence, and this raises challenges for error correction. (viewpoint)
Kansas Data Access and Support Center — LIDAR-derived binary (.las) files containing classified points of all returns. We have 3 classifications Unclassified, Ground, Low points. The average Ground Sample...
The perception of probability.
Gallistel, C R; Krishan, Monika; Liu, Ye; Miller, Reilly; Latham, Peter E
2014-01-01
We present a computational model to explain the results from experiments in which subjects estimate the hidden probability parameter of a stepwise nonstationary Bernoulli process outcome by outcome. The model captures the following results qualitatively and quantitatively, with only 2 free parameters: (a) Subjects do not update their estimate after each outcome; they step from one estimate to another at irregular intervals. (b) The joint distribution of step widths and heights cannot be explained on the assumption that a threshold amount of change must be exceeded in order for them to indicate a change in their perception. (c) The mapping of observed probability to the median perceived probability is the identity function over the full range of probabilities. (d) Precision (how close estimates are to the best possible estimate) is good and constant over the full range. (e) Subjects quickly detect substantial changes in the hidden probability parameter. (f) The perceived probability sometimes changes dramatically from one observation to the next. (g) Subjects sometimes have second thoughts about a previous change perception, after observing further outcomes. (h) The frequency with which they perceive changes moves in the direction of the true frequency over sessions. (Explaining this finding requires 2 additional parametric assumptions.) The model treats the perception of the current probability as a by-product of the construction of a compact encoding of the experienced sequence in terms of its change points. It illustrates the why and the how of intermittent Bayesian belief updating and retrospective revision in simple perception. It suggests a reinterpretation of findings in the recent literature on the neurobiology of decision making. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved).
Return to Golf After Lumbar Fusion.
Shifflett, Grant D; Hellman, Michael D; Louie, Philip K; Mikhail, Christopher; Park, Kevin U; Phillips, Frank M
Spinal fusion surgery is being increasingly performed, yet few studies have focused on return to recreational sports after lumbar fusion and none have specifically analyzed return to golf. Most golfers successfully return to sport after lumbar fusion surgery. Case series. Level 4. All patients who underwent 1- or 2-level primary lumbar fusion surgery for degenerative pathologies performed by a single surgeon between January 2008 and October 2012 and had at least 1-year follow-up were included. Patients completed a specifically designed golf survey. Surveys were mailed, given during follow-up clinic, or answered during telephone contact. A total of 353 patients met the inclusion and exclusion criteria, with 200 responses (57%) to the questionnaire producing 34 golfers. The average age of golfers was 57 years (range, 32-79 years). In 79% of golfers, preoperative back and/or leg pain significantly affected their ability to play golf. Within 1 year from surgery, 65% of patients returned to practice and 52% returned to course play. Only 29% of patients stated that continued back/leg pain limited their play. Twenty-five patients (77%) were able to play the same amount of golf or more than before fusion surgery. Of those providing handicaps, 12 (80%) reported the same or an improved handicap. More than 50% of golfers return to on-course play within 1 year of lumbar fusion surgery. The majority of golfers can return to preoperative levels in terms of performance (handicap) and frequency of play. This investigation offers insight into when golfers return to sport after lumbar fusion surgery and provides surgeons with information to set realistic expectations postoperatively.
Irreversibility and conditional probability
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Stuart, C.I.J.M.
1989-01-01
The mathematical entropy - unlike physical entropy - is simply a measure of uniformity for probability distributions in general. So understood, conditional entropies have the same logical structure as conditional probabilities. If, as is sometimes supposed, conditional probabilities are time-reversible, then so are conditional entropies and, paradoxically, both then share this symmetry with physical equations of motion. The paradox is, of course that probabilities yield a direction to time both in statistical mechanics and quantum mechanics, while the equations of motion do not. The supposed time-reversibility of both conditionals seems also to involve a form of retrocausality that is related to, but possibly not the same as, that described by Costa de Beaurgard. The retrocausality is paradoxically at odds with the generally presumed irreversibility of the quantum mechanical measurement process. Further paradox emerges if the supposed time-reversibility of the conditionals is linked with the idea that the thermodynamic entropy is the same thing as 'missing information' since this confounds the thermodynamic and mathematical entropies. However, it is shown that irreversibility is a formal consequence of conditional entropies and, hence, of conditional probabilities also. 8 refs. (Author)
Isaac, Richard
1995-01-01
The ideas of probability are all around us. Lotteries, casino gambling, the al most non-stop polling which seems to mold public policy more and more these are a few of the areas where principles of probability impinge in a direct way on the lives and fortunes of the general public. At a more re moved level there is modern science which uses probability and its offshoots like statistics and the theory of random processes to build mathematical descriptions of the real world. In fact, twentieth-century physics, in embrac ing quantum mechanics, has a world view that is at its core probabilistic in nature, contrary to the deterministic one of classical physics. In addition to all this muscular evidence of the importance of probability ideas it should also be said that probability can be lots of fun. It is a subject where you can start thinking about amusing, interesting, and often difficult problems with very little mathematical background. In this book, I wanted to introduce a reader with at least a fairl...
Experimental Probability in Elementary School
Andrew, Lane
2009-01-01
Concepts in probability can be more readily understood if students are first exposed to probability via experiment. Performing probability experiments encourages students to develop understandings of probability grounded in real events, as opposed to merely computing answers based on formulae.
Improving Ranking Using Quantum Probability
Melucci, Massimo
2011-01-01
The paper shows that ranking information units by quantum probability differs from ranking them by classical probability provided the same data used for parameter estimation. As probability of detection (also known as recall or power) and probability of false alarm (also known as fallout or size) measure the quality of ranking, we point out and show that ranking by quantum probability yields higher probability of detection than ranking by classical probability provided a given probability of ...
Choice probability generating functions
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel; Bierlaire, Michel
2010-01-01
This paper establishes that every random utility discrete choice model (RUM) has a representation that can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) with specific properties, and that every function with these specific properties is consistent with a RUM. The choice...... probabilities from the RUM are obtained from the gradient of the CPGF. Mixtures of RUM are characterized by logarithmic mixtures of their associated CPGF. The paper relates CPGF to multivariate extreme value distributions, and reviews and extends methods for constructing generating functions for applications....... The choice probabilities of any ARUM may be approximated by a cross-nested logit model. The results for ARUM are extended to competing risk survival models....
Probability and stochastic modeling
Rotar, Vladimir I
2012-01-01
Basic NotionsSample Space and EventsProbabilitiesCounting TechniquesIndependence and Conditional ProbabilityIndependenceConditioningThe Borel-Cantelli TheoremDiscrete Random VariablesRandom Variables and VectorsExpected ValueVariance and Other Moments. Inequalities for DeviationsSome Basic DistributionsConvergence of Random Variables. The Law of Large NumbersConditional ExpectationGenerating Functions. Branching Processes. Random Walk RevisitedBranching Processes Generating Functions Branching Processes Revisited More on Random WalkMarkov ChainsDefinitions and Examples. Probability Distributions of Markov ChainsThe First Step Analysis. Passage TimesVariables Defined on a Markov ChainErgodicity and Stationary DistributionsA Classification of States and ErgodicityContinuous Random VariablesContinuous DistributionsSome Basic Distributions Continuous Multivariate Distributions Sums of Independent Random Variables Conditional Distributions and ExpectationsDistributions in the General Case. SimulationDistribution F...
Collision Probability Analysis
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hansen, Peter Friis; Pedersen, Preben Terndrup
1998-01-01
It is the purpose of this report to apply a rational model for prediction of ship-ship collision probabilities as function of the ship and the crew characteristics and the navigational environment for MS Dextra sailing on a route between Cadiz and the Canary Islands.The most important ship and crew...... characteristics are: ship speed, ship manoeuvrability, the layout of the navigational bridge, the radar system, the number and the training of navigators, the presence of a look out etc. The main parameters affecting the navigational environment are ship traffic density, probability distributions of wind speeds...... probability, i.e. a study of the navigator's role in resolving critical situations, a causation factor is derived as a second step.The report documents the first step in a probabilistic collision damage analysis. Future work will inlcude calculation of energy released for crushing of structures giving...
Estimating Subjective Probabilities
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Andersen, Steffen; Fountain, John; Harrison, Glenn W.
2014-01-01
either construct elicitation mechanisms that control for risk aversion, or construct elicitation mechanisms which undertake 'calibrating adjustments' to elicited reports. We illustrate how the joint estimation of risk attitudes and subjective probabilities can provide the calibration adjustments...... that theory calls for. We illustrate this approach using data from a controlled experiment with real monetary consequences to the subjects. This allows the observer to make inferences about the latent subjective probability, under virtually any well-specified model of choice under subjective risk, while still...
Introduction to imprecise probabilities
Augustin, Thomas; de Cooman, Gert; Troffaes, Matthias C M
2014-01-01
In recent years, the theory has become widely accepted and has been further developed, but a detailed introduction is needed in order to make the material available and accessible to a wide audience. This will be the first book providing such an introduction, covering core theory and recent developments which can be applied to many application areas. All authors of individual chapters are leading researchers on the specific topics, assuring high quality and up-to-date contents. An Introduction to Imprecise Probabilities provides a comprehensive introduction to imprecise probabilities, includin
Classic Problems of Probability
Gorroochurn, Prakash
2012-01-01
"A great book, one that I will certainly add to my personal library."—Paul J. Nahin, Professor Emeritus of Electrical Engineering, University of New Hampshire Classic Problems of Probability presents a lively account of the most intriguing aspects of statistics. The book features a large collection of more than thirty classic probability problems which have been carefully selected for their interesting history, the way they have shaped the field, and their counterintuitive nature. From Cardano's 1564 Games of Chance to Jacob Bernoulli's 1713 Golden Theorem to Parrondo's 1996 Perplexin
... Consumers Consumer Information by Audience For Women Contact Lens Care Share Tweet Linkedin Pin it More sharing ... www.fda.gov/medwatch Learn More about Contact Lens Care Other Tips on Contact Lenses Decorative Contact ...
Counterexamples in probability
Stoyanov, Jordan M
2013-01-01
While most mathematical examples illustrate the truth of a statement, counterexamples demonstrate a statement's falsity. Enjoyable topics of study, counterexamples are valuable tools for teaching and learning. The definitive book on the subject in regards to probability, this third edition features the author's revisions and corrections plus a substantial new appendix.
Plotnitsky, Arkady
2010-01-01
Offers an exploration of the relationships between epistemology and probability in the work of Niels Bohr, Werner Heisenberg, and Erwin Schrodinger; in quantum mechanics; and in modern physics. This book considers the implications of these relationships and of quantum theory for our understanding of the nature of thinking and knowledge in general
Transition probabilities for atoms
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kim, Y.K.
1980-01-01
Current status of advanced theoretical methods for transition probabilities for atoms and ions is discussed. An experiment on the f values of the resonance transitions of the Kr and Xe isoelectronic sequences is suggested as a test for the theoretical methods
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Nicolaisen, Jeppe; Faber Frandsen, Tove
2008-01-01
The paper introduces a new journal impact measure called The Reference Return Ratio (3R). Unlike the traditional Journal Impact Factor (JIF), which is based on calculations of publications and citations, the new measure is based on calculations of bibliographic investments (references) and returns...... (citations). A comparative study of the two measures shows a strong relationship between the 3R and the JIF. Yet, the 3R appears to correct for citation habits, citation dynamics, and composition of document types - problems that typically are raised against the JIF. In addition, contrary to traditional...
The Returns to Entrepreneurship
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Van Praag, Mirjam; Raknerud, Arvid
Empirical studies show low pecuniary returns of switching from wage employment to entrepreneurship. We reconsider the pecuniary gains of this switching by employing a two-stage procedure, where the randomness in the timing of inheritance transfers is used as an exclusion restriction to identify...... causal effects. The model is estimated on data covering the whole Norwegian population of individuals matched to the entire population of firms established in the period 2002-2011. The results indicate that the average returns to entrepreneurship are significantly negative for individuals entering...... entrepreneurship through self-employment and modest, but significantly positive, for incorporated startups....
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Shumway, R.W.
1985-01-01
This paper presents a collection of TMIN (temperature of return to nucleate boiling) correlations, evaluates them under several conditions, and compares them with a wide range of data. Purpose is to obtain the best one for use in a water reactor safety computer simulator known as TRAC-B. Return to nucleate boiling can occur in a reactor accident at either high or low pressure and flow rates. Most of the correlations yield unrealistic results under some conditions. A new correlation is proposed which overcomes many of the deficiencies
Negative probability in the framework of combined probability
Burgin, Mark
2013-01-01
Negative probability has found diverse applications in theoretical physics. Thus, construction of sound and rigorous mathematical foundations for negative probability is important for physics. There are different axiomatizations of conventional probability. So, it is natural that negative probability also has different axiomatic frameworks. In the previous publications (Burgin, 2009; 2010), negative probability was mathematically formalized and rigorously interpreted in the context of extende...
Return Migration to Mexico: Does Health Matter?
Arenas, Erika; Goldman, Noreen; Pebley, Anne R; Teruel, Graciela
2015-12-01
We use data from three rounds of the Mexican Family Life Survey to examine whether migrants in the United States returning to Mexico in the period 2005-2012 have worse health than those remaining in the United States. Despite extensive interest by demographers in health-related selection, this has been a neglected area of study in the literature on U.S.-Mexico migration, and the few results to date have been contradictory and inconclusive. Using five self-reported health variables collected while migrants resided in the United States and subsequent migration history, we find direct evidence of higher probabilities of return migration for Mexican migrants in poor health as well as lower probabilities of return for migrants with improving health. These findings are robust to the inclusion of potential confounders reflecting the migrants' demographic characteristics, economic situation, family ties, and origin and destination characteristics. We anticipate that in the coming decade, health may become an even more salient issue in migrants' decisions about returning to Mexico, given the recent expansion in access to health insurance in Mexico.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Elemar Antonino Cassol
2008-06-01
"R" da USLE, foi obtido de dados pluviométricos, representados pelo coeficiente de chuva, que pode ser utilizado para regiões climáticas semelhantes que apenas dispõem de dados pluviométricos. O valor da erosividade média anual de 9.751 MJ mm ha-1 h-1 ano-1 é esperado pelo menos uma vez a cada 2,2 anos, com uma probabilidade de ocorrência de 44,9 %.The erosivity potential of rainfalls can be estimated by some indexes, among them the EI30, which is given by the product of kinetic energy (E and rainfall intensity for a 30-minute period (I30. The purpose of this study was to determine rainfall erosivity, hydrological patterns, return period and probability of occurrence of erosive rainfalls in São Borja, RS, Brazil, based on diary rainfall charts of the FEPAGRO meteorological station, from 1956 to 2003. The duration and accumulated amount of each erosive rainfall were measured, entered in a spreadsheet, digitalized and processed by CHUVEROS software, which calculated the EI30 index and the monthly and annual total erosivity, besides determining the hydrological pattern of each rainfall. Most of the annual erosivity (76 % was concentrated between October and April, in the period of soil tillage, sowing and growth of summer crops. The most notable peak in the erosive potential was observed between March and April (1,260-1,269 MJ mm ha-1 h-1, when most crops are normally in full growth, while July and August were the months of lowest erosive potential (268-271 MJ mm ha-1 h-1. Of the total erosive rainfalls 47, 25 and 28 % had advanced, intermediary and delayed patterns, respectively, while these patterns corresponded to 50, 26 and 24 %, respectively, of the mean annual volume of erosive rainfalls and to 53, 25 and 22 % of the average annual erosivity. The mean annual index of erosivity in São Borja is 9,751 MJ mm ha-1 h-1 year-1. It represents the "R" Factor of the Universal Soil Loss Equation to be used in São Borja and regions with similar rainfall pattern
Contributions to quantum probability
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Fritz, Tobias
2010-01-01
Chapter 1: On the existence of quantum representations for two dichotomic measurements. Under which conditions do outcome probabilities of measurements possess a quantum-mechanical model? This kind of problem is solved here for the case of two dichotomic von Neumann measurements which can be applied repeatedly to a quantum system with trivial dynamics. The solution uses methods from the theory of operator algebras and the theory of moment problems. The ensuing conditions reveal surprisingly simple relations between certain quantum-mechanical probabilities. It also shown that generally, none of these relations holds in general probabilistic models. This result might facilitate further experimental discrimination between quantum mechanics and other general probabilistic theories. Chapter 2: Possibilistic Physics. I try to outline a framework for fundamental physics where the concept of probability gets replaced by the concept of possibility. Whereas a probabilistic theory assigns a state-dependent probability value to each outcome of each measurement, a possibilistic theory merely assigns one of the state-dependent labels ''possible to occur'' or ''impossible to occur'' to each outcome of each measurement. It is argued that Spekkens' combinatorial toy theory of quantum mechanics is inconsistent in a probabilistic framework, but can be regarded as possibilistic. Then, I introduce the concept of possibilistic local hidden variable models and derive a class of possibilistic Bell inequalities which are violated for the possibilistic Popescu-Rohrlich boxes. The chapter ends with a philosophical discussion on possibilistic vs. probabilistic. It can be argued that, due to better falsifiability properties, a possibilistic theory has higher predictive power than a probabilistic one. Chapter 3: The quantum region for von Neumann measurements with postselection. It is determined under which conditions a probability distribution on a finite set can occur as the outcome
von der Linden, Wolfgang; Dose, Volker; von Toussaint, Udo
2014-06-01
Preface; Part I. Introduction: 1. The meaning of probability; 2. Basic definitions; 3. Bayesian inference; 4. Combinatrics; 5. Random walks; 6. Limit theorems; 7. Continuous distributions; 8. The central limit theorem; 9. Poisson processes and waiting times; Part II. Assigning Probabilities: 10. Transformation invariance; 11. Maximum entropy; 12. Qualified maximum entropy; 13. Global smoothness; Part III. Parameter Estimation: 14. Bayesian parameter estimation; 15. Frequentist parameter estimation; 16. The Cramer-Rao inequality; Part IV. Testing Hypotheses: 17. The Bayesian way; 18. The frequentist way; 19. Sampling distributions; 20. Bayesian vs frequentist hypothesis tests; Part V. Real World Applications: 21. Regression; 22. Inconsistent data; 23. Unrecognized signal contributions; 24. Change point problems; 25. Function estimation; 26. Integral equations; 27. Model selection; 28. Bayesian experimental design; Part VI. Probabilistic Numerical Techniques: 29. Numerical integration; 30. Monte Carlo methods; 31. Nested sampling; Appendixes; References; Index.
Contributions to quantum probability
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Fritz, Tobias
2010-06-25
Chapter 1: On the existence of quantum representations for two dichotomic measurements. Under which conditions do outcome probabilities of measurements possess a quantum-mechanical model? This kind of problem is solved here for the case of two dichotomic von Neumann measurements which can be applied repeatedly to a quantum system with trivial dynamics. The solution uses methods from the theory of operator algebras and the theory of moment problems. The ensuing conditions reveal surprisingly simple relations between certain quantum-mechanical probabilities. It also shown that generally, none of these relations holds in general probabilistic models. This result might facilitate further experimental discrimination between quantum mechanics and other general probabilistic theories. Chapter 2: Possibilistic Physics. I try to outline a framework for fundamental physics where the concept of probability gets replaced by the concept of possibility. Whereas a probabilistic theory assigns a state-dependent probability value to each outcome of each measurement, a possibilistic theory merely assigns one of the state-dependent labels ''possible to occur'' or ''impossible to occur'' to each outcome of each measurement. It is argued that Spekkens' combinatorial toy theory of quantum mechanics is inconsistent in a probabilistic framework, but can be regarded as possibilistic. Then, I introduce the concept of possibilistic local hidden variable models and derive a class of possibilistic Bell inequalities which are violated for the possibilistic Popescu-Rohrlich boxes. The chapter ends with a philosophical discussion on possibilistic vs. probabilistic. It can be argued that, due to better falsifiability properties, a possibilistic theory has higher predictive power than a probabilistic one. Chapter 3: The quantum region for von Neumann measurements with postselection. It is determined under which conditions a probability distribution on a
Waste Package Misload Probability
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Knudsen, J.K.
2001-01-01
The objective of this calculation is to calculate the probability of occurrence for fuel assembly (FA) misloads (i.e., Fa placed in the wrong location) and FA damage during FA movements. The scope of this calculation is provided by the information obtained from the Framatome ANP 2001a report. The first step in this calculation is to categorize each fuel-handling events that occurred at nuclear power plants. The different categories are based on FAs being damaged or misloaded. The next step is to determine the total number of FAs involved in the event. Using the information, a probability of occurrence will be calculated for FA misload and FA damage events. This calculation is an expansion of preliminary work performed by Framatome ANP 2001a
Probability theory and applications
Hsu, Elton P
1999-01-01
This volume, with contributions by leading experts in the field, is a collection of lecture notes of the six minicourses given at the IAS/Park City Summer Mathematics Institute. It introduces advanced graduates and researchers in probability theory to several of the currently active research areas in the field. Each course is self-contained with references and contains basic materials and recent results. Topics include interacting particle systems, percolation theory, analysis on path and loop spaces, and mathematical finance. The volume gives a balanced overview of the current status of probability theory. An extensive bibliography for further study and research is included. This unique collection presents several important areas of current research and a valuable survey reflecting the diversity of the field.
Paradoxes in probability theory
Eckhardt, William
2013-01-01
Paradoxes provide a vehicle for exposing misinterpretations and misapplications of accepted principles. This book discusses seven paradoxes surrounding probability theory. Some remain the focus of controversy; others have allegedly been solved, however the accepted solutions are demonstrably incorrect. Each paradox is shown to rest on one or more fallacies. Instead of the esoteric, idiosyncratic, and untested methods that have been brought to bear on these problems, the book invokes uncontroversial probability principles, acceptable both to frequentists and subjectivists. The philosophical disputation inspired by these paradoxes is shown to be misguided and unnecessary; for instance, startling claims concerning human destiny and the nature of reality are directly related to fallacious reasoning in a betting paradox, and a problem analyzed in philosophy journals is resolved by means of a computer program.
Measurement uncertainty and probability
Willink, Robin
2013-01-01
A measurement result is incomplete without a statement of its 'uncertainty' or 'margin of error'. But what does this statement actually tell us? By examining the practical meaning of probability, this book discusses what is meant by a '95 percent interval of measurement uncertainty', and how such an interval can be calculated. The book argues that the concept of an unknown 'target value' is essential if probability is to be used as a tool for evaluating measurement uncertainty. It uses statistical concepts, such as a conditional confidence interval, to present 'extended' classical methods for evaluating measurement uncertainty. The use of the Monte Carlo principle for the simulation of experiments is described. Useful for researchers and graduate students, the book also discusses other philosophies relating to the evaluation of measurement uncertainty. It employs clear notation and language to avoid the confusion that exists in this controversial field of science.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Johansen, Jeanne D
2003-01-01
in the same products. This means that it is difficult to avoid exposure, as products labelled as 'fragrance free' have also been shown to contain fragrance ingredients, either because of the use of fragrance ingredients as preservatives or masking perfumes, or the use of botanicals. About 2500 different...... fragrance ingredients are currently used in the composition of perfumes and at least 100 of these are known contact allergens. Therefore, it is advisable to supplement standard patch testing with the patient's own stay-on cosmetic products, as well as the fragrance chemical hydroxyisohexyl-3-cyclohexane...... carboxaldehyde, which on its own gives responses in 1-3% of tested patients. The focus in recent years on the ingredients of the fragrance mix will probably result in the fragrance industry changing the composition of perfumes, and thus make the current diagnostic test less useful. New diagnostic tests are under...
Model uncertainty and probability
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Parry, G.W.
1994-01-01
This paper discusses the issue of model uncertainty. The use of probability as a measure of an analyst's uncertainty as well as a means of describing random processes has caused some confusion, even though the two uses are representing different types of uncertainty with respect to modeling a system. The importance of maintaining the distinction between the two types is illustrated with a simple example
Retrocausality and conditional probability
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Stuart, C.I.J.M.
1989-01-01
Costa de Beauregard has proposed that physical causality be identified with conditional probability. The proposal is shown to be vulnerable on two accounts. The first, though mathematically trivial, seems to be decisive so far as the current formulation of the proposal is concerned. The second lies in a physical inconsistency which seems to have its source in a Copenhagenlike disavowal of realism in quantum mechanics. 6 refs. (Author)
Sustainable Mars Sample Return
Alston, Christie; Hancock, Sean; Laub, Joshua; Perry, Christopher; Ash, Robert
2011-01-01
The proposed Mars sample return mission will be completed using natural Martian resources for the majority of its operations. The system uses the following technologies: In-Situ Propellant Production (ISPP), a methane-oxygen propelled Mars Ascent Vehicle (MAV), a carbon dioxide powered hopper, and a hydrogen fueled balloon system (large balloons and small weather balloons). The ISPP system will produce the hydrogen, methane, and oxygen using a Sabatier reactor. a water electrolysis cell, water extracted from the Martian surface, and carbon dioxide extracted from the Martian atmosphere. Indigenous hydrogen will fuel the balloon systems and locally-derived methane and oxygen will fuel the MAV for the return of a 50 kg sample to Earth. The ISPP system will have a production cycle of 800 days and the estimated overall mission length is 1355 days from Earth departure to return to low Earth orbit. Combining these advanced technologies will enable the proposed sample return mission to be executed with reduced initial launch mass and thus be more cost efficient. The successful completion of this mission will serve as the next step in the advancement of Mars exploration technology.
Lindsay T McMahon
2007-01-01
With the signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement in January 2005, the new Government of South Sudan began to call for the return of the millions of South Sudanese IDP s and refugees. The International Organization for Migration (IOM) has developed a programme to help them do so.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Lindsay T McMahon
2007-07-01
Full Text Available With the signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement in January 2005, the new Government of South Sudan began to call for the return of the millions of South Sudanese IDP s and refugees. The International Organization for Migration (IOM has developed a programme to help them do so.
Higher Education Endowments Return
Bahlmann, David; Walda, John D.; Sedlacek, Verne O.
2012-01-01
A new study of endowments by the National Association of College and University Business Officers (NACUBO) and the Commonfund Institute has brought good news to college and universities: While endowment returns dropped precipitously in fiscal year 2009 as a result of the financial crisis and accompanying slide in equity markets, they climbed to an…
Mangan, Marianne
2013-01-01
Call it physical activity, call it games, or call it play. Whatever its name, it's a place we all need to return to. In the physical education, recreation, and dance professions, we need to redesign programs to address the need for and want of play that is inherent in all of us.
Whittle, Peter
1992-01-01
This book is a complete revision of the earlier work Probability which ap peared in 1970. While revised so radically and incorporating so much new material as to amount to a new text, it preserves both the aim and the approach of the original. That aim was stated as the provision of a 'first text in probability, de manding a reasonable but not extensive knowledge of mathematics, and taking the reader to what one might describe as a good intermediate level'. In doing so it attempted to break away from stereotyped applications, and consider applications of a more novel and significant character. The particular novelty of the approach was that expectation was taken as the prime concept, and the concept of expectation axiomatized rather than that of a probability measure. In the preface to the original text of 1970 (reproduced below, together with that to the Russian edition of 1982) I listed what I saw as the advantages of the approach in as unlaboured a fashion as I could. I also took the view that the text...
Nanoscale roughness contact in a slider-disk interface.
Hua, Wei; Liu, Bo; Yu, Shengkai; Zhou, Weidong
2009-07-15
The nanoscale roughness contact between molecularly smooth surfaces of a slider-disk interface in a hard disk drive is analyzed, and the lubricant behavior at very high shear rate is presented. A new contact model is developed to study the nanoscale roughness contact behavior by classifying various forms of contact into slider-lubricant contact, slider-disk elastic contact and plastic contact. The contact pressure and the contact probabilities of the three types of contact are investigated. The new contact model is employed to explain and provide insight to an interesting experimental result found in a thermal protrusion slider. The protrusion budget for head surfing in the lubricant, which is the ideal state for contact recording, is also discussed.
Nanoscale roughness contact in a slider-disk interface
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hua Wei; Liu Bo; Yu Shengkai; Zhou Weidong
2009-01-01
The nanoscale roughness contact between molecularly smooth surfaces of a slider-disk interface in a hard disk drive is analyzed, and the lubricant behavior at very high shear rate is presented. A new contact model is developed to study the nanoscale roughness contact behavior by classifying various forms of contact into slider-lubricant contact, slider-disk elastic contact and plastic contact. The contact pressure and the contact probabilities of the three types of contact are investigated. The new contact model is employed to explain and provide insight to an interesting experimental result found in a thermal protrusion slider. The protrusion budget for head surfing in the lubricant, which is the ideal state for contact recording, is also discussed.
Occupational contact urticaria and protein contact dermatitis.
Doutre, Marie-Sylvie
2005-01-01
Irritant dermatitis and eczema are the most prevalent occupational skin diseases. Less common are immediate contact reactions such as contact urticaria and protein contact dermatitis. Occupational contact urticaria can be subdivided into two categories, immunological and non immunological. However, some agents can induce these two types of reactions. Contact urticaria to natural rubber latex is particularly frequent among health care personnel, but contact urticaria to a wide variety of other substances occurs in many other occupations. Among those at risk are cooks, bakers, butchers, restaurant personnel, veterinarians, hairdressers, florists, gardeners, and forestry workers. Protein contact dermatitis in some of these occupations is caused principally by proteins of animal or plant origin, especially among individuals with a history of atopic dermatitis. Diagnosis requires careful interrogation, clinical examination and skin tests (open tests and prick tests with immediate lecture) to identify a particular contact allergen.
Probability mapping of contaminants
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Rautman, C.A.; Kaplan, P.G. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); McGraw, M.A. [Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States); Istok, J.D. [Oregon State Univ., Corvallis, OR (United States); Sigda, J.M. [New Mexico Inst. of Mining and Technology, Socorro, NM (United States)
1994-04-01
Exhaustive characterization of a contaminated site is a physical and practical impossibility. Descriptions of the nature, extent, and level of contamination, as well as decisions regarding proposed remediation activities, must be made in a state of uncertainty based upon limited physical sampling. The probability mapping approach illustrated in this paper appears to offer site operators a reasonable, quantitative methodology for many environmental remediation decisions and allows evaluation of the risk associated with those decisions. For example, output from this approach can be used in quantitative, cost-based decision models for evaluating possible site characterization and/or remediation plans, resulting in selection of the risk-adjusted, least-cost alternative. The methodology is completely general, and the techniques are applicable to a wide variety of environmental restoration projects. The probability-mapping approach is illustrated by application to a contaminated site at the former DOE Feed Materials Production Center near Fernald, Ohio. Soil geochemical data, collected as part of the Uranium-in-Soils Integrated Demonstration Project, have been used to construct a number of geostatistical simulations of potential contamination for parcels approximately the size of a selective remediation unit (the 3-m width of a bulldozer blade). Each such simulation accurately reflects the actual measured sample values, and reproduces the univariate statistics and spatial character of the extant data. Post-processing of a large number of these equally likely statistically similar images produces maps directly showing the probability of exceeding specified levels of contamination (potential clean-up or personnel-hazard thresholds).
Probability mapping of contaminants
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rautman, C.A.; Kaplan, P.G.; McGraw, M.A.; Istok, J.D.; Sigda, J.M.
1994-01-01
Exhaustive characterization of a contaminated site is a physical and practical impossibility. Descriptions of the nature, extent, and level of contamination, as well as decisions regarding proposed remediation activities, must be made in a state of uncertainty based upon limited physical sampling. The probability mapping approach illustrated in this paper appears to offer site operators a reasonable, quantitative methodology for many environmental remediation decisions and allows evaluation of the risk associated with those decisions. For example, output from this approach can be used in quantitative, cost-based decision models for evaluating possible site characterization and/or remediation plans, resulting in selection of the risk-adjusted, least-cost alternative. The methodology is completely general, and the techniques are applicable to a wide variety of environmental restoration projects. The probability-mapping approach is illustrated by application to a contaminated site at the former DOE Feed Materials Production Center near Fernald, Ohio. Soil geochemical data, collected as part of the Uranium-in-Soils Integrated Demonstration Project, have been used to construct a number of geostatistical simulations of potential contamination for parcels approximately the size of a selective remediation unit (the 3-m width of a bulldozer blade). Each such simulation accurately reflects the actual measured sample values, and reproduces the univariate statistics and spatial character of the extant data. Post-processing of a large number of these equally likely statistically similar images produces maps directly showing the probability of exceeding specified levels of contamination (potential clean-up or personnel-hazard thresholds)
Probability of causation approach
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jose, D.E.
1988-01-01
Probability of causation (PC) is sometimes viewed as a great improvement by those persons who are not happy with the present rulings of courts in radiation cases. The author does not share that hope and expects that PC will not play a significant role in these issues for at least the next decade. If it is ever adopted in a legislative compensation scheme, it will be used in a way that is unlikely to please most scientists. Consequently, PC is a false hope for radiation scientists, and its best contribution may well lie in some of the spin-off effects, such as an influence on medical practice
Generalized Probability Functions
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Alexandre Souto Martinez
2009-01-01
Full Text Available From the integration of nonsymmetrical hyperboles, a one-parameter generalization of the logarithmic function is obtained. Inverting this function, one obtains the generalized exponential function. Motivated by the mathematical curiosity, we show that these generalized functions are suitable to generalize some probability density functions (pdfs. A very reliable rank distribution can be conveniently described by the generalized exponential function. Finally, we turn the attention to the generalization of one- and two-tail stretched exponential functions. We obtain, as particular cases, the generalized error function, the Zipf-Mandelbrot pdf, the generalized Gaussian and Laplace pdf. Their cumulative functions and moments were also obtained analytically.
2014-06-30
precisely the content of the following result. The price we pay is that the assumption that A is a packing in (F, k ·k1) is too weak to make this happen...Regularité des trajectoires des fonctions aléatoires gaussiennes. In: École d’Été de Probabilités de Saint- Flour , IV-1974, pp. 1–96. Lecture Notes in...Lectures on probability theory and statistics (Saint- Flour , 1994), Lecture Notes in Math., vol. 1648, pp. 165–294. Springer, Berlin (1996) 50. Ledoux
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Shaharudin, Mohd Rizaimy; Govindan, Kannan; Zailani, Suhaiza
2017-01-01
The aim of this study is to examine the extent to which product returns motivate manufacturing firms to adopt closed-loop supply chain activities that influence the effectiveness of reverse supply chains. The hypotheses have been tested using data from a sample of 150 environmental management...... system ISO 14001 certified manufacturing firms in Malaysia through the census sampling approach. The results of the empirical test using LISREL Version 8.70 for the structural equation modeling support the fundamental explanation of the influence of the institutional forces towards the adoption of closed...... eventually impacts the firm's effectiveness in the reverse supply chain. The findings also help managers to understand the factors that can improve the outcome of the adoption of closed-loop supply chain activities by intensifying the extent of involvement in product returns, which provides a valuable...
Full Text Available ... One Use Facts About Colored Contacts and Halloween Safety Colored Contact Lens Facts Over-the-Counter Costume ... Costume Contact Lenses Can Ruin Vision Eye Makeup Safety In fact, it is illegal to sell colored ...
Full Text Available ... One Use Facts About Colored Contacts and Halloween Safety Colored Contact Lens Facts Over-the-Counter Costume ... use of colored contact lenses , from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). Are the colored lenses ...
Probable maximum flood control
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
DeGabriele, C.E.; Wu, C.L.
1991-11-01
This study proposes preliminary design concepts to protect the waste-handling facilities and all shaft and ramp entries to the underground from the probable maximum flood (PMF) in the current design configuration for the proposed Nevada Nuclear Waste Storage Investigation (NNWSI) repository protection provisions were furnished by the United States Bureau of Reclamation (USSR) or developed from USSR data. Proposed flood protection provisions include site grading, drainage channels, and diversion dikes. Figures are provided to show these proposed flood protection provisions at each area investigated. These areas are the central surface facilities (including the waste-handling building and waste treatment building), tuff ramp portal, waste ramp portal, men-and-materials shaft, emplacement exhaust shaft, and exploratory shafts facility
Mars Sample Return Architecture Overview
Edwards, C. D.; Vijendran, S.
2018-04-01
NASA and ESA are exploring potential concepts for a Sample Retrieval Lander and Earth Return Orbiter that could return samples planned to be collected and cached by the Mars 2020 rover mission. We provide an overview of the Mars Sample Return architecture.
Probability and rational choice
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
David Botting
2014-05-01
Full Text Available http://dx.doi.org/10.5007/1808-1711.2014v18n1p1 In this paper I will discuss the rationality of reasoning about the future. There are two things that we might like to know about the future: which hypotheses are true and what will happen next. To put it in philosophical language, I aim to show that there are methods by which inferring to a generalization (selecting a hypothesis and inferring to the next instance (singular predictive inference can be shown to be normative and the method itself shown to be rational, where this is due in part to being based on evidence (although not in the same way and in part on a prior rational choice. I will also argue that these two inferences have been confused, being distinct not only conceptually (as nobody disputes but also in their results (the value given to the probability of the hypothesis being not in general that given to the next instance and that methods that are adequate for one are not by themselves adequate for the other. A number of debates over method founder on this confusion and do not show what the debaters think they show.
Does everyone use probabilities? The role of cognitive skills
Binswanger, J.S.; Salm, Martin
What is the role of cognitive skills in decision making under uncertainty? We address this question by examining the relationship between responses to survey questions about subjective probabilities of stock market returns and stock holding decisions. Based on data from the Health and Retirement
COVAL, Compound Probability Distribution for Function of Probability Distribution
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Astolfi, M.; Elbaz, J.
1979-01-01
1 - Nature of the physical problem solved: Computation of the probability distribution of a function of variables, given the probability distribution of the variables themselves. 'COVAL' has been applied to reliability analysis of a structure subject to random loads. 2 - Method of solution: Numerical transformation of probability distributions
Contact Dermatitis in Pediatrics.
Pelletier, Janice L; Perez, Caroline; Jacob, Sharon E
2016-08-01
Contact dermatitis is an umbrella term that describes the skin's reaction to contacted noxious or allergenic substances. The two main categories of contact dermatitis are irritant type and allergic type. This review discusses the signs, symptoms, causes, and complications of contact dermatitis. It addresses the testing, treatment, and prevention of contact dermatitis. Proper management of contact dermatitis includes avoidance measures for susceptible children. Implementation of a nickel directive (regulating the use of nickel in jewelry and other products that come into contact with the skin) could further reduce exposure to the most common allergens in the pediatric population. [Pediatr Ann. 2016;45(8):e287-e292.]. Copyright 2016, SLACK Incorporated.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Dalgaard, Carl-Johan Lars; Hansen, Henrik
2017-01-01
We estimate the average rate of return on investments financed by aid and by domestic resource mobilisation, using aggregate data. Both returns are expected to vary across countries and time. Consequently we develop a correlated random coefficients model to estimate the average returns. Across...... different estimators and two different data sources for GDP and investment our findings are remarkably robust; the average gross return on ‘aid investments’ is about 20 per cent. This is in accord with micro estimates of the economic rate of return on aid projects and with aggregate estimates of the rate...
The Right Man for the Job - Increasing Returns in Search?
C.N. Teulings (Coen); P.A. Gautier (Pieter)
2000-01-01
textabstractThis paper describes a search model with a continuum of worker and job types, transferable utility and an IRS contact technology. We apply a second order Taylor expansion to approximate an analytical solution of the equilibrium. We find that one third of the increasing returns in
Falk, Ruma; Kendig, Keith
2013-01-01
Two contestants debate the notorious probability problem of the sex of the second child. The conclusions boil down to explication of the underlying scenarios and assumptions. Basic principles of probability theory are highlighted.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Olwig, Karen Fog
2012-01-01
Research on female migrant caregivers has tended to focus upon the emotional and social problems they encounter working abroad, given women’s traditional role as caregivers for their own families. This article analyses how Caribbean women who have returned after a period abroad as domestic workers...... inscribe their migration experiences within the gendered narrative of the good relative who migrates to help the family left behind and therefore deserves social recognition in the community of origin. It argues that this narrative allows the women to both affirm and reinterpret local family and gender...... roles within the context of migration. This analysis points to the close connection between narrative structures, accounts of migration experiences, and self-presentations and suggests that narratives about family and gender roles not only reflect people’s lives, but are also a malleable resource...
Introduction to probability with R
Baclawski, Kenneth
2008-01-01
FOREWORD PREFACE Sets, Events, and Probability The Algebra of Sets The Bernoulli Sample Space The Algebra of Multisets The Concept of Probability Properties of Probability Measures Independent Events The Bernoulli Process The R Language Finite Processes The Basic Models Counting Rules Computing Factorials The Second Rule of Counting Computing Probabilities Discrete Random Variables The Bernoulli Process: Tossing a Coin The Bernoulli Process: Random Walk Independence and Joint Distributions Expectations The Inclusion-Exclusion Principle General Random Variable
Ross, Sheldon
2014-01-01
A First Course in Probability, Ninth Edition, features clear and intuitive explanations of the mathematics of probability theory, outstanding problem sets, and a variety of diverse examples and applications. This book is ideal for an upper-level undergraduate or graduate level introduction to probability for math, science, engineering and business students. It assumes a background in elementary calculus.
One hundred years of return period: Strengths and limitations
Volpi, E.; Fiori, A.; Grimaldi, S.; Lombardo, F.; Koutsoyiannis, D.
2015-10-01
One hundred years from its original definition by Fuller, the probabilistic concept of return period is widely used in hydrology as well as in other disciplines of geosciences to give an indication on critical event rareness. This concept gains its popularity, especially in engineering practice for design and risk assessment, due to its ease of use and understanding; however, return period relies on some basic assumptions that should be satisfied for a correct application of this statistical tool. Indeed, conventional frequency analysis in hydrology is performed by assuming as necessary conditions that extreme events arise from a stationary distribution and are independent of one another. The main objective of this paper is to investigate the properties of return period when the independence condition is omitted; hence, we explore how the different definitions of return period available in literature affect results of frequency analysis for processes correlated in time. We demonstrate that, for stationary processes, the independence condition is not necessary in order to apply the classical equation of return period (i.e., the inverse of exceedance probability). On the other hand, we show that the time-correlation structure of hydrological processes modifies the shape of the distribution function of which the return period represents the first moment. This implies that, in the context of time-dependent processes, the return period might not represent an exhaustive measure of the probability of failure, and that its blind application could lead to misleading results. To overcome this problem, we introduce the concept of Equivalent Return Period, which controls the probability of failure still preserving the virtue of effectively communicating the event rareness.
Contact mechanics: contact area and interfacial separation from small contact to full contact
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Yang, C; Persson, B N J
2008-01-01
We present a molecular dynamics study of the contact between a rigid solid with a randomly rough surface and an elastic block with a flat surface. The numerical calculations mainly focus on the contact area and the interfacial separation from small contact (low load) to full contact (high load). For a small load the contact area varies linearly with the load and the interfacial separation depends logarithmically on the load. For a high load the contact area approaches the nominal contact area (i.e. complete contact), and the interfacial separation approaches zero. The numerical results have been compared with analytical theory and experimental results. They are in good agreement with each other. The present findings may be very important for soft solids, e.g. rubber, or for very smooth surfaces, where complete contact can be reached at moderately high loads without plastic deformation of the solids
The Determinants of Return Migration: Evidence for Kosovo
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ardiana Gashi
2015-12-01
Full Text Available Return migration represents a potentially important contributor to economic development for countries that are large exporters of labor. This paper provides an analysis of the determinants of return migration to Kosovo, a country with an especially high level of recent emigration. The findings of this investigation suggest that there is a non-linear relationship between the age of the migrant and their probability of returning. In addition, the more educated migrants and those that have acquired additional education whilst abroad are more likely to return, whereas recent migrants, those that possess permanent resident status and have their family abroad are less likely to return. As expected, the stronger the family ties of a migrant with their home country, the more likely they are to return. Finally, migrants that are expected to invest in businesses in Kosovo are more inclined to return. Together these findings suggest that return migration may be an important contributor to economic development in Kosovo and policies are outlined that could strengthen this contribution.
Modeling of contact tracing in social networks
Tsimring, Lev S.; Huerta, Ramón
2003-07-01
Spreading of certain infections in complex networks is effectively suppressed by using intelligent strategies for epidemic control. One such standard epidemiological strategy consists in tracing contacts of infected individuals. In this paper, we use a recently introduced generalization of the standard susceptible-infectious-removed stochastic model for epidemics in sparse random networks which incorporates an additional (traced) state. We describe a deterministic mean-field description which yields quantitative agreement with stochastic simulations on random graphs. We also discuss the role of contact tracing in epidemics control in small-world and scale-free networks. Effectiveness of contact tracing grows as the rewiring probability is reduced.
A brief introduction to probability.
Di Paola, Gioacchino; Bertani, Alessandro; De Monte, Lavinia; Tuzzolino, Fabio
2018-02-01
The theory of probability has been debated for centuries: back in 1600, French mathematics used the rules of probability to place and win bets. Subsequently, the knowledge of probability has significantly evolved and is now an essential tool for statistics. In this paper, the basic theoretical principles of probability will be reviewed, with the aim of facilitating the comprehension of statistical inference. After a brief general introduction on probability, we will review the concept of the "probability distribution" that is a function providing the probabilities of occurrence of different possible outcomes of a categorical or continuous variable. Specific attention will be focused on normal distribution that is the most relevant distribution applied to statistical analysis.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ammerich, M.
2009-01-01
This article goes back over the incidents occurring during the summer 2008, that is to say the uranium release from the Socatri facility in the South of France. From this point, the purpose studies the radiological situation of the Camargue seashore; the levels of radioactivity are from 3 to thirty times higher than these ones expected in this area, but the natural radioactivity with thorium and uranium coming from the granitic massifs erosion brings an important part. It is difficult to make the part between human and natural contribution to ambient radioactivity. However, it appears that to limit the water consumption until the time of dilution played its part was absolutely necessary. Then, because it is question of water, the drinking water is tackled. Some mineral waters go over the recommended limits of doses. A last return to the past with the radioactive watches, but this time with actual watches that activate detection. Two watches contained promethium 147, 147 Pm is a beta emitter but also gamma emitter. To end, in Ireland and Great Britain, some fire detectors contain americium 241. In fact, this article constitutes a summary of different abnormalities around radioactivity. (N.C.)
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
S. Griffioen
2011-06-01
Full Text Available Religion is back in Philosophy as a respectable subject. Part 1 first charts what MacIntyre, Taylor and Derrida have meant in this regard. Subsequently, it turns to the Enlightenment to determine what constituted the breakthrough. It is found that even where the Enlightenment gave maximum room to religion i.e. as a civic religion and as “religion of the heart” it still excluded a constitutive relation to a transcendent revelation. Part 2 centres on the religion-faith distinction in reformational philosophy. Similar to the Enlightenment, religion is understood as part of human nature. However, human nature itself is conceived as intrinsically religious and depending for its light on revelation. Secondly, “religion” in this context also encompasses idols and religious substitutes. Thus, it directs attention to shopping malls, football stadiums, health policy, et cetera, as possible contexts of a return of religion. Examples show that this has become a popular approach. However, most of the publications surveyed fail to distinguish between an “analogical” and a “pistically qualified” use of religion, and are open to exaggerations (the shopping mall and football stadiums as temples, etc.. At this junction, the relevance is shown of the religion-faith distinction as well as of Elaine Botha’s theory of metaphors. The epilogue offers an integration of parts one and two.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Anon.
1990-01-01
In the first of what it says will be annual cost-of-capital proceedings to set returns on equity and rates of return on rate base for electric utilities, the California Public Utilities Commission (PUC) lowered from 1989 levels the 1990 returns on common equity (ROE) and rates of return (ROR) for the state's four major investor-owned electric utilities. Under this fast-track procedure, by May 8 of every year, utilities will have to file an application for rate adjustments that reflect their projected costs of capital for the following year
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Dalgaard, Carl-Johan Lars; Hansen, Henrik
We investigate the marginal productivity of investment across countries. The aim is to estimate the return on investments financed by foreign aid and by domestic resource mobilization, using aggregate data. Both returns are expected to vary across countries and time. Consequently we develop...... a correlated random coefficients model, to estimate the average aggregate return on ‘aid investments’ and ‘domestic investments’. Across different estimators and two different sources for GDP and investment data our findings are remarkably robust; the average gross return on ‘aid investments’ is about 20 per...
Full Text Available ... Cleveland. "This is far from the truth." Real People, Real Problems with Colored Contact Lenses Julian: Teenager ... about the members of the eye-care team . Consumer warning about the improper use of colored contact ...
Full Text Available ... One Use Facts About Colored Contacts and Halloween Safety Colored Contact Lens Facts Over-the-Counter Costume ... new application of artificial intelligence shows whether a patient’s eyes point to high blood pressure or risk ...
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Full Text Available ... sell contacts without a prescription are breaking the law, and may be fined $11,000 per violation. " ... wear any kind of contact lens. In Butler's case, the lenses caused an infection and left her ...
Full Text Available ... Hazard: The Hidden Dangers of Buying Decorative Contact Lenses Without a Prescription Leer en Español: Peligros asociados ... truth." Real People, Real Problems with Colored Contact Lenses Julian: Teenager Blinded In One Eye By Non- ...
... Hazard: The Hidden Dangers of Buying Decorative Contact Lenses Without a Prescription Leer en Español: Peligros asociados ... truth." Real People, Real Problems with Colored Contact Lenses Julian: Teenager Blinded In One Eye By Non- ...
Full Text Available ... Cleveland. "This is far from the truth." Real People, Real Problems with Colored Contact Lenses Julian: Teenager ... the lenses. Never share contact lenses with another person. Get follow up exams with your eye care ...
Federal Laboratory Consortium — Description:The FTA32 goniometer provides video-based contact angle and surface tension measurement. Contact angles are measured by fitting a mathematical expression...
Full Text Available ... like a suction cup." Halloween is a popular time for people to use colored contact lenses to ... wear costume contact lenses for Halloween or any time of year, follow these guidelines: Get an eye ...
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Full Text Available ... not require the same level of care or consideration as a standard contact lens because they can ... sell contacts without a prescription are breaking the law, and may be fined $11,000 per violation. " ...
This picture shows a skin inflammation (dermatitis) caused by contact with a material that causes an allergic reaction in this person. Contact dermatitis is a relatively common condition, and can be caused ...
Contact materials for nanoelectronics
Alshareef, Husam N.; Quevedo-Ló pez, Manuel Angel Quevedo; Majhi, Prashant
2011-01-01
In this article, we review current research activities in contact material development for electronic and nanoelectronic devices. A fundamental issue in contact materials research is to understand and control interfacial reactions and phenomena
Full Text Available ... the United States. All contact lenses are medical devices that require a prescription and proper fitting by an eye-care professional. Retailers that sell contacts without a ...
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Propensity, Probability, and Quantum Theory
Ballentine, Leslie E.
2016-08-01
Quantum mechanics and probability theory share one peculiarity. Both have well established mathematical formalisms, yet both are subject to controversy about the meaning and interpretation of their basic concepts. Since probability plays a fundamental role in QM, the conceptual problems of one theory can affect the other. We first classify the interpretations of probability into three major classes: (a) inferential probability, (b) ensemble probability, and (c) propensity. Class (a) is the basis of inductive logic; (b) deals with the frequencies of events in repeatable experiments; (c) describes a form of causality that is weaker than determinism. An important, but neglected, paper by P. Humphreys demonstrated that propensity must differ mathematically, as well as conceptually, from probability, but he did not develop a theory of propensity. Such a theory is developed in this paper. Propensity theory shares many, but not all, of the axioms of probability theory. As a consequence, propensity supports the Law of Large Numbers from probability theory, but does not support Bayes theorem. Although there are particular problems within QM to which any of the classes of probability may be applied, it is argued that the intrinsic quantum probabilities (calculated from a state vector or density matrix) are most naturally interpreted as quantum propensities. This does not alter the familiar statistical interpretation of QM. But the interpretation of quantum states as representing knowledge is untenable. Examples show that a density matrix fails to represent knowledge.
Fractal asset returns, arbitrage and option pricing
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Potgieter, Petrus H.
2009-01-01
In the discrete-time fractional random walk model a market with one risky asset affords an arbitrage opportunity as described by Cutland et al. [Cutland NJ, Kopp PE, Willinger W. Stock price returns and the Joseph effect: a fractional version of the Black-Scholes model. In: Russo Francesco, Bolthausen Erwin, Dozzi Marco, editors. Seminar on 6 stochastic analysis, random fields and applications, pp. 327-351. Seminar on stochastic analysis, random fields and applications. Ascona: Centro Stefano Franscini; 1993, Progress in probability 36. Birkhauser Verlag; 1995.] and Sottinen [Sottinen Tommi. Fractional Brownian motion, random walks and binary market models. Finance Stoch 2001;5(3):343-355]. We briefly discuss these results and compute a numerical example in a fractional binomial model as illustration and mention an option pricing model for assets the returns of which are driven by a fractional Brownian motion [Yaozhong Hu, Bernt Oksendal. Fractional white noise calculus and applications to finance. Infin Dimens Anal Quant Probability Rel Top 2003;6:1-32, ISSN 0219-0257; Fajardo J, Cajueiro DO. Volatility estimation and option pricing with fractional Brownian motion, October 2003. Available from: (http://ideas.repec.org/p/ibm/finlab/flwp53.html)].
... There is a risk of eye infection from bacteria in swimming pool water, hot tubs, lakes and the ocean Replace your contact lens storage case every 3 months or as directed by your eye care professional. Other Risks of Contact Lenses Other risks of contact lenses include pink eye ( ...
Hydrogenation of passivated contacts
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Nemeth, William; Yuan, Hao-Chih; LaSalvia, Vincenzo; Stradins, Pauls; Page, Matthew R.
2018-03-06
Methods of hydrogenation of passivated contacts using materials having hydrogen impurities are provided. An example method includes applying, to a passivated contact, a layer of a material, the material containing hydrogen impurities. The method further includes subsequently annealing the material and subsequently removing the material from the passivated contact.
Mixed Lubricated Line Contacts
Faraon, I.C.
2005-01-01
The present work deals with friction in mixed lubricated line contacts. Components in systems are becoming smaller and due to, for instance power transmitted, partial contact may occur. In industrial applications, friction between the moving contacting surfaces cannot be avoided, therefore it is
New Cosmetic Contact Allergens
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
An Goossens
2015-02-01
Full Text Available Allergic and photo-allergic contact dermatitis, and immunologic contact urticaria are potential immune-mediated adverse effects from cosmetics. Fragrance components and preservatives are certainly the most frequently observed allergens; however, all ingredients must be considered when investigating for contact allergy.
Prediction and probability in sciences
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Klein, E.; Sacquin, Y.
1998-01-01
This book reports the 7 presentations made at the third meeting 'physics and fundamental questions' whose theme was probability and prediction. The concept of probability that was invented to apprehend random phenomena has become an important branch of mathematics and its application range spreads from radioactivity to species evolution via cosmology or the management of very weak risks. The notion of probability is the basis of quantum mechanics and then is bound to the very nature of matter. The 7 topics are: - radioactivity and probability, - statistical and quantum fluctuations, - quantum mechanics as a generalized probability theory, - probability and the irrational efficiency of mathematics, - can we foresee the future of the universe?, - chance, eventuality and necessity in biology, - how to manage weak risks? (A.C.)
Applied probability and stochastic processes
Sumita, Ushio
1999-01-01
Applied Probability and Stochastic Processes is an edited work written in honor of Julien Keilson. This volume has attracted a host of scholars in applied probability, who have made major contributions to the field, and have written survey and state-of-the-art papers on a variety of applied probability topics, including, but not limited to: perturbation method, time reversible Markov chains, Poisson processes, Brownian techniques, Bayesian probability, optimal quality control, Markov decision processes, random matrices, queueing theory and a variety of applications of stochastic processes. The book has a mixture of theoretical, algorithmic, and application chapters providing examples of the cutting-edge work that Professor Keilson has done or influenced over the course of his highly-productive and energetic career in applied probability and stochastic processes. The book will be of interest to academic researchers, students, and industrial practitioners who seek to use the mathematics of applied probability i...
Poisson Processes in Free Probability
An, Guimei; Gao, Mingchu
2015-01-01
We prove a multidimensional Poisson limit theorem in free probability, and define joint free Poisson distributions in a non-commutative probability space. We define (compound) free Poisson process explicitly, similar to the definitions of (compound) Poisson processes in classical probability. We proved that the sum of finitely many freely independent compound free Poisson processes is a compound free Poisson processes. We give a step by step procedure for constructing a (compound) free Poisso...
PROBABILITY SURVEYS , CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES AND ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT
We show that probability-based environmental resource monitoring programs, such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (U.S. EPA) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program, and conditional probability analysis can serve as a basis for estimating ecological risk over ...
Media planning by optimizing contact frequencies
N. Piersma (Nanda); S. Kapsenberg; P. Kloprogge; A.P.M. Wagelmans (Albert)
1998-01-01
textabstractIn this paper we study a model to estimate the probability that a target group of an advertising campaign is reached by a commercial message a given number of times. This contact frequency distribution is known to be computationally difficult to calculate because of dependence between
Høgelund, Jan; Holm, Anders; McIntosh, James
2010-01-01
Using Danish register and survey data, we examine the effect of a national graded return-to-work program on the probability of sick-listed workers returning to regular working hours. During program participation, the sick-listed worker works fewer hours and receives the normal hourly wage for the hours worked and sickness benefit for the hours off work. When the worker's health improves, working hours are increased until the sick-listed worker is able to work regular hours. Taking account of unobserved differences between program participants and non-participants, we find that participation in the program significantly increases the probability of returning to regular working hours. Copyright 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
A New Method to Calculate Internal Rate of Return
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
azadeh zandi
2015-09-01
Full Text Available A number of methods have been developed to choose the best capital investment projects such as net present value, internal rate of return and etc. Internal rate of return method is probably the most popular method among managers and investors. But despite the popularity there are serious drawbacks and limitations in this method. After decades of efforts made by economists and experts to improve the method and its shortcomings, Magni in 2010 has revealed a new approach that can solves the most of internal rate of return method problems. This paper present a new method which is originated from Magni’s approach but has much more simple calculations and can resolve all the drawbacks of internal rate of return method.
Corporate Governance and Equity Returns
Uchida, Shigeru
2012-01-01
This paper analyses the relationship between corporate governance and equity returns from the small investors view point. A primary survey has been conducted to gather the data required to examine the link. Preliminary result of the study shows that the four elements of governance: board structure, transparency, fairness and responsibility are positively related with equity returns.
Probability inequalities for decomposition integrals
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Agahi, H.; Mesiar, Radko
2017-01-01
Roč. 315, č. 1 (2017), s. 240-248 ISSN 0377-0427 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Decomposition integral * Superdecomposition integral * Probability inequalities Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics OBOR OECD: Statistics and probability Impact factor: 1.357, year: 2016 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2017/E/mesiar-0470959.pdf
Expected utility with lower probabilities
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hendon, Ebbe; Jacobsen, Hans Jørgen; Sloth, Birgitte
1994-01-01
An uncertain and not just risky situation may be modeled using so-called belief functions assigning lower probabilities to subsets of outcomes. In this article we extend the von Neumann-Morgenstern expected utility theory from probability measures to belief functions. We use this theory...
A severe transmissible Majocchi's granuloma in an immunocompetent returned traveler
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
James G. Gallo
2017-12-01
Full Text Available Severe dermatophyte infection is rare in immunocompetent adults. Recently cases have been described in travelers returning from South East Asia (Luchsinger et al., 2015 [1]. These may be sexually transmitted and can have permanent sequelae. We describe the first reported case of Majocchi's granuloma (MG in an Australian returned traveler and its subsequent transmission via sexual contact. Both patients were successfully treated with systemic antifungals. MG should be considered in patients with severe rash after travel to South East Asia. Keywords: Trichophyton interdigitale, Majocchi's granuloma, Dermatophyte infection, Tinea corporis
Return to Play Following Anterior Shoulder Dislocation and Stabilization Surgery.
Donohue, Michael A; Owens, Brett D; Dickens, Jonathan F
2016-10-01
Anterior shoulder instability in athletes may lead to time lost from participation and decreases in level of play. Contact, collision, and overhead athletes are at a higher risk than others. Athletes may successfully be returned to play but operative stabilization should be considered for long-term treatment of recurrent instability. Open and arthroscopic stabilization procedures for athletes with less than 20% to 25% bone loss improve return to play rates and decrease recurrent instability, with a slightly lower recurrence with open stabilization. For athletes with greater than 20% to 25% bone loss, an open osseous augmentation procedure should be considered. Published by Elsevier Inc.
Invariant probabilities of transition functions
Zaharopol, Radu
2014-01-01
The structure of the set of all the invariant probabilities and the structure of various types of individual invariant probabilities of a transition function are two topics of significant interest in the theory of transition functions, and are studied in this book. The results obtained are useful in ergodic theory and the theory of dynamical systems, which, in turn, can be applied in various other areas (like number theory). They are illustrated using transition functions defined by flows, semiflows, and one-parameter convolution semigroups of probability measures. In this book, all results on transition probabilities that have been published by the author between 2004 and 2008 are extended to transition functions. The proofs of the results obtained are new. For transition functions that satisfy very general conditions the book describes an ergodic decomposition that provides relevant information on the structure of the corresponding set of invariant probabilities. Ergodic decomposition means a splitting of t...
Introduction to probability with Mathematica
Hastings, Kevin J
2009-01-01
Discrete ProbabilityThe Cast of Characters Properties of Probability Simulation Random SamplingConditional ProbabilityIndependenceDiscrete DistributionsDiscrete Random Variables, Distributions, and ExpectationsBernoulli and Binomial Random VariablesGeometric and Negative Binomial Random Variables Poisson DistributionJoint, Marginal, and Conditional Distributions More on ExpectationContinuous ProbabilityFrom the Finite to the (Very) Infinite Continuous Random Variables and DistributionsContinuous ExpectationContinuous DistributionsThe Normal Distribution Bivariate Normal DistributionNew Random Variables from OldOrder Statistics Gamma DistributionsChi-Square, Student's t, and F-DistributionsTransformations of Normal Random VariablesAsymptotic TheoryStrong and Weak Laws of Large Numbers Central Limit TheoremStochastic Processes and ApplicationsMarkov ChainsPoisson Processes QueuesBrownian MotionFinancial MathematicsAppendixIntroduction to Mathematica Glossary of Mathematica Commands for Probability Short Answers...
Linear positivity and virtual probability
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hartle, James B.
2004-01-01
We investigate the quantum theory of closed systems based on the linear positivity decoherence condition of Goldstein and Page. The objective of any quantum theory of a closed system, most generally the universe, is the prediction of probabilities for the individual members of sets of alternative coarse-grained histories of the system. Quantum interference between members of a set of alternative histories is an obstacle to assigning probabilities that are consistent with the rules of probability theory. A quantum theory of closed systems therefore requires two elements: (1) a condition specifying which sets of histories may be assigned probabilities and (2) a rule for those probabilities. The linear positivity condition of Goldstein and Page is the weakest of the general conditions proposed so far. Its general properties relating to exact probability sum rules, time neutrality, and conservation laws are explored. Its inconsistency with the usual notion of independent subsystems in quantum mechanics is reviewed. Its relation to the stronger condition of medium decoherence necessary for classicality is discussed. The linear positivity of histories in a number of simple model systems is investigated with the aim of exhibiting linearly positive sets of histories that are not decoherent. The utility of extending the notion of probability to include values outside the range of 0-1 is described. Alternatives with such virtual probabilities cannot be measured or recorded, but can be used in the intermediate steps of calculations of real probabilities. Extended probabilities give a simple and general way of formulating quantum theory. The various decoherence conditions are compared in terms of their utility for characterizing classicality and the role they might play in further generalizations of quantum mechanics
Measuring social contacts in the emergency department.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Douglas W Lowery-North
Full Text Available Infectious individuals in an emergency department (ED bring substantial risks of cross infection. Data about the complex social and spatial structure of interpersonal contacts in the ED will aid construction of biologically plausible transmission risk models that can guide cross infection control.We sought to determine the number and duration of contacts among patients and staff in a large, busy ED. This prospective study was conducted between 1 July 2009 and 30 June 2010. Two 12-hour shifts per week were randomly selected for study. The study was conducted in the ED of an urban hospital. There were 81 shifts in the planned random sample of 104 (78% with usable contact data, during which there were 9183 patient encounters. Of these, 6062 (66% were approached to participate, of which 4732 (78% agreed. Over the course of the year, 88 staff members participated (84%. A radiofrequency identification (RFID system was installed and the ED divided into 89 distinct zones structured so copresence of two individuals in any zone implied a very high probability of contact <1 meter apart in space. During study observation periods, patients and staff were given RFID tags to wear. Contact events were recorded. These were further broken down with respect to the nature of the contacts, i.e., patient with patient, patient with staff, and staff with staff. 293,171 contact events were recorded, with a median of 22 contact events and 9 contacts with distinct individuals per participant per shift. Staff-staff interactions were more numerous and longer than patient-patient or patient-staff interactions.We used RFID to quantify contacts between patients and staff in a busy ED. These results are useful for studies of the spread of infections. By understanding contact patterns most important in potential transmission, more effective prevention strategies may be implemented.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
S. V. LOSKUTOV
2018-05-01
Full Text Available Purpose. To determine the contribution of the real contact spots distribution in the total conductivity of the conductors contact. Methodology. The electrical contact resistance research was carried out on models. The experimental part of this work was done on paper with a graphite layer with membranes (the first type and conductive liquids with discrete partitions (the second type. Findings. It is shown that the contact electrical resistance is mainly determined by the real area of metal contact. The experimental dependence of the electrical resistance of the second type model on the distance between the electrodes and the potential distribution along the sample surface for the first type model were obtained. The theoretical model based on the principle of electric field superposition was considered. The dependences obtained experimentally and calculated by using the theoretical model are in good agreement. Originality. The regularity of the electrical contact resistance formation on a large number of membranes was researched for the first time. A new model of discrete electrical contact based on the liquid as the conducting environment with nuclear membrane partitions was developed. The conclusions of the additivity of contact and bulk electrical resistance were done. Practical value. Based on these researches, a new experimental method of kinetic macroidentation that as a parameter of the metal surface layer deformation uses the real contact area was developed. This method allows to determine the value of average contact stresses, yield point, change of the stress on the depth of deformation depending on the surface treatment.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Czaplewski, David A; Nordquist, Christopher D; Dyck, Christopher W; Patrizi, Gary A; Kraus, Garth M; Cowan, William D
2012-01-01
We present lifetime limitations and failure analysis of many packaged RF MEMS ohmic contacting switches with Au–Au, Au–Ir, and Au–Pt contact materials operating with 100 µN of contact force per contact in hermetically sealed glass wall packages. All metals were tested using the same switch design in a controlled environment to provide a comparison between the performance of the different materials and their corresponding failure mechanisms. The switch lifetimes of the different contact materials varied from several hundred cycles to 200 million cycles with different mechanisms causing failures for different contact materials. Switches with Au–Au contacts failed due to adhesion when thoroughly cleaned while switches with dissimilar metal contacts (Au–Ir and Au–Pt) operated without adhesion failures but failed due to carbon accumulation on the contacts even in a clean, packaged environment as a result of the catalytic behavior of the contact materials. Switch lifetimes correlated inversely with catalytic behavior of the contact metals. The data suggests the path to increase switch lifetime is to use favorable catalytic materials as contacts, design switches with higher contact forces to break through any residual contamination, and use cleaner, probably smaller, packages. (paper)
Probability Machines: Consistent Probability Estimation Using Nonparametric Learning Machines
Malley, J. D.; Kruppa, J.; Dasgupta, A.; Malley, K. G.; Ziegler, A.
2011-01-01
Summary Background Most machine learning approaches only provide a classification for binary responses. However, probabilities are required for risk estimation using individual patient characteristics. It has been shown recently that every statistical learning machine known to be consistent for a nonparametric regression problem is a probability machine that is provably consistent for this estimation problem. Objectives The aim of this paper is to show how random forests and nearest neighbors can be used for consistent estimation of individual probabilities. Methods Two random forest algorithms and two nearest neighbor algorithms are described in detail for estimation of individual probabilities. We discuss the consistency of random forests, nearest neighbors and other learning machines in detail. We conduct a simulation study to illustrate the validity of the methods. We exemplify the algorithms by analyzing two well-known data sets on the diagnosis of appendicitis and the diagnosis of diabetes in Pima Indians. Results Simulations demonstrate the validity of the method. With the real data application, we show the accuracy and practicality of this approach. We provide sample code from R packages in which the probability estimation is already available. This means that all calculations can be performed using existing software. Conclusions Random forest algorithms as well as nearest neighbor approaches are valid machine learning methods for estimating individual probabilities for binary responses. Freely available implementations are available in R and may be used for applications. PMID:21915433
Contact and symplectic topology
Colin, Vincent; Stipsicz, András
2014-01-01
Symplectic and contact geometry naturally emerged from the mathematical description of classical physics. The discovery of new rigidity phenomena and properties satisfied by these geometric structures launched a new research field worldwide. The intense activity of many European research groups in this field is reflected by the ESF Research Networking Programme "Contact And Symplectic Topology" (CAST). The lectures of the Summer School in Nantes (June 2011) and of the CAST Summer School in Budapest (July 2012) provide a nice panorama of many aspects of the present status of contact and symplectic topology. The notes of the minicourses offer a gentle introduction to topics which have developed in an amazing speed in the recent past. These topics include 3-dimensional and higher dimensional contact topology, Fukaya categories, asymptotically holomorphic methods in contact topology, bordered Floer homology, embedded contact homology, and flexibility results for Stein manifolds.
Probable Inference and Quantum Mechanics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Grandy, W. T. Jr.
2009-01-01
In its current very successful interpretation the quantum theory is fundamentally statistical in nature. Although commonly viewed as a probability amplitude whose (complex) square is a probability, the wavefunction or state vector continues to defy consensus as to its exact meaning, primarily because it is not a physical observable. Rather than approach this problem directly, it is suggested that it is first necessary to clarify the precise role of probability theory in quantum mechanics, either as applied to, or as an intrinsic part of the quantum theory. When all is said and done the unsurprising conclusion is that quantum mechanics does not constitute a logic and probability unto itself, but adheres to the long-established rules of classical probability theory while providing a means within itself for calculating the relevant probabilities. In addition, the wavefunction is seen to be a description of the quantum state assigned by an observer based on definite information, such that the same state must be assigned by any other observer based on the same information, in much the same way that probabilities are assigned.
Failure probability under parameter uncertainty.
Gerrard, R; Tsanakas, A
2011-05-01
In many problems of risk analysis, failure is equivalent to the event of a random risk factor exceeding a given threshold. Failure probabilities can be controlled if a decisionmaker is able to set the threshold at an appropriate level. This abstract situation applies, for example, to environmental risks with infrastructure controls; to supply chain risks with inventory controls; and to insurance solvency risks with capital controls. However, uncertainty around the distribution of the risk factor implies that parameter error will be present and the measures taken to control failure probabilities may not be effective. We show that parameter uncertainty increases the probability (understood as expected frequency) of failures. For a large class of loss distributions, arising from increasing transformations of location-scale families (including the log-normal, Weibull, and Pareto distributions), the article shows that failure probabilities can be exactly calculated, as they are independent of the true (but unknown) parameters. Hence it is possible to obtain an explicit measure of the effect of parameter uncertainty on failure probability. Failure probability can be controlled in two different ways: (1) by reducing the nominal required failure probability, depending on the size of the available data set, and (2) by modifying of the distribution itself that is used to calculate the risk control. Approach (1) corresponds to a frequentist/regulatory view of probability, while approach (2) is consistent with a Bayesian/personalistic view. We furthermore show that the two approaches are consistent in achieving the required failure probability. Finally, we briefly discuss the effects of data pooling and its systemic risk implications. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.
Introduction to contact mechanics
Fischer-Cripps, Anthony C
2000-01-01
Contact mechanics deals with the elastic or plastic contact between two solid objects, and is thus intimately connected with such topics as fracture, hardness, and elasticity.This text, intended for advanced undergraduates, begins with an introduction to the mechanical properties of materials, general fracture mechanics, and fractures in brittle solids.This is followed by a detailed discussion of stresses and the nature of elastic and elastic-plastic contact.
Probability with applications and R
Dobrow, Robert P
2013-01-01
An introduction to probability at the undergraduate level Chance and randomness are encountered on a daily basis. Authored by a highly qualified professor in the field, Probability: With Applications and R delves into the theories and applications essential to obtaining a thorough understanding of probability. With real-life examples and thoughtful exercises from fields as diverse as biology, computer science, cryptology, ecology, public health, and sports, the book is accessible for a variety of readers. The book's emphasis on simulation through the use of the popular R software language c
A philosophical essay on probabilities
Laplace, Marquis de
1996-01-01
A classic of science, this famous essay by ""the Newton of France"" introduces lay readers to the concepts and uses of probability theory. It is of especial interest today as an application of mathematical techniques to problems in social and biological sciences.Generally recognized as the founder of the modern phase of probability theory, Laplace here applies the principles and general results of his theory ""to the most important questions of life, which are, in effect, for the most part, problems in probability."" Thus, without the use of higher mathematics, he demonstrates the application
Full Text Available ... also available in Spanish . Follow The Academy Professionals: Education Guidelines News Multimedia Public & Patients: Contact Us About the Academy Jobs at the Academy Financial ...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Meltem Önder
2009-03-01
Full Text Available Allergic contact dermatitis is the delayed type hypersensitivity reaction to exogenous agents. Allergic contact dermatitis may clinically present acutely after allergen exposure and initial sensitization in a previously sensitized individual. Acute phase is characterized by erythematous, scaly plaques. In severe cases vesiculation and bullae in exposed areas are very characteristic. Repeated or continuous exposure of sensitized individual with allergen result in chronic dermatitis. Lichenification, erythematous plaques, hyperkeratosis and fissuring may develop in chronic patients. Allergic contact dermatitis is very common dermatologic problem in dermatology daily practice. A diagnosis of contact dermatitis requires the careful consideration of patient history, physical examination and patch testing. The knowledge of the clinical features of the skin reactions to various contactans is important to make a correct diagnosis of contact dermatitis. It can be seen in every age, in children textile product, accessories and touch products are common allergens, while in adults allergic contact dermatitis may be related with topical medicaments. The contact pattern of contact dermatitis depends on fashion and local traditions as well. The localization of allergic reaction should be evaluated and patients’ occupation and hobbies should be asked. The purpose of this review is to introduce to our collaques up dated allergic contact dermatitis literatures both in Turkey and in the World.
Colors and contact dermatitis.
Bonamonte, Domenico; Foti, Caterina; Romita, Paolo; Vestita, Michelangelo; Angelini, Gianni
2014-01-01
The diagnosis of skin diseases relies on several clinical signs, among which color is of paramount importance. In this review, we consider certain clinical presentations of both eczematous and noneczematous contact dermatitis in which color plays a peculiar role orientating toward the right diagnosis. The conditions that will be discussed include specific clinical-morphologic subtypes of eczematous contact dermatitis, primary melanocytic, and nonmelanocytic contact hyperchromia, black dermographism, contact chemical leukoderma, and others. Based on the physical, chemical, and biologic factors underlying a healthy skin color, the various skin shades drawing a disease picture are thoroughly debated, stressing their etiopathogenic origins and histopathologic aspects.
Barriers to return to work after burn injuries.
Esselman, Peter C; Askay, Shelley Wiechman; Carrougher, Gretchen J; Lezotte, Dennis C; Holavanahalli, Radha K; Magyar-Russell, Gina; Fauerbach, James A; Engrav, Loren H
2007-12-01
To identify barriers to return to work after burn injury as identified by the patient. A cohort study with telephone interview up to 1 year. Hospital-based burn centers at 3 national sites. Hospitalized patients (N=154) meeting the American Burn Association criteria for major burn injury, employed at least 20 hours a week at the time of injury, and with access to a telephone after discharge. Patients were contacted via telephone every 2 weeks up to 4 months, then monthly up to 1 year after discharge. A return to work survey was used to identify barriers that prevented patients from returning to work. A graphic rating scale determined the impact of each barrier. By 1 year, 79.7% of patients returned to work. Physical and wound issues were barriers early after discharge. Although physical abilities continued to be a significant barrier up to 1 year, working conditions (temperature, humidity, safety) and psychosocial factors (nightmares, flashbacks, appearance concerns) became important issues in those with long-term disability. The majority of patients return to work after a burn injury. Although physical and work conditions are important barriers, psychosocial issues need to be evaluated and treated to optimize return to work.
Full Text Available ... Independent Oct 31, 2016 More Eye Health News Stem Cells May Return Some Vision Lost to Wet AMD ... blind patients some functional vision, using human embryonic stem cells. Two blind patients regained enough sight to read ...
Full Text Available ... Mar 29, 2017 More Eye Health News Stem Cells May Return Some Vision Lost to Wet AMD ... patients some functional vision, using human embryonic stem cells. Two blind patients regained enough sight to read ...
Full Text Available ... sleep disorder known as obstructive sleep apnea (OSA). Stem Cells May Return Some Vision Lost to Wet AMD ... blind patients some functional vision, using human embryonic stem cells. Two blind patients regained enough sight to read ...
Full Text Available ... disorder known as obstructive sleep apnea (OSA). Stem Cells May Return Some Vision Lost to Wet AMD ... patients some functional vision, using human embryonic stem cells. Two blind patients regained enough sight to read ...
Full Text Available ... Oct 31, 2016 More Eye Health News Stem Cells May Return Some Vision Lost to Wet AMD ... patients some functional vision, using human embryonic stem cells. Two blind patients regained enough sight to read ...
Full Text Available ... myopia? Mar 29, 2017 More Eye Health News Stem Cells May Return Some Vision Lost to Wet AMD ... blind patients some functional vision, using human embryonic stem cells. Two blind patients regained enough sight to read ...
Are You at Risk for Contact Dermatitis? | Poster
You probably don’t give much thought to hand health. Until something goes wrong, almost everyone takes for granted that these crucial appendages will continue working as they always have. But hand health is an important consideration, especially at work. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), allergic contact dermatitis and irritant contact
Bereaved Employee: Returning to Work
... Work Working Through Grief About Us The Bereaved Employee: Returning to Work By Helen Fitzgerald, CT After ... One employer called a grief therapist to help employees after a co-worker reported the death of ...
Total anomalous pulmonary venous return
... pulmonary venous return, x-ray References Fraser CD, Kane LC. Congenital heart disease. In: Townsend CM Jr, ... 62. Review Date 10/17/2017 Updated by: Michael A. Chen, MD, PhD, Associate Professor of Medicine, ...
Logic, probability, and human reasoning.
Johnson-Laird, P N; Khemlani, Sangeet S; Goodwin, Geoffrey P
2015-04-01
This review addresses the long-standing puzzle of how logic and probability fit together in human reasoning. Many cognitive scientists argue that conventional logic cannot underlie deductions, because it never requires valid conclusions to be withdrawn - not even if they are false; it treats conditional assertions implausibly; and it yields many vapid, although valid, conclusions. A new paradigm of probability logic allows conclusions to be withdrawn and treats conditionals more plausibly, although it does not address the problem of vapidity. The theory of mental models solves all of these problems. It explains how people reason about probabilities and postulates that the machinery for reasoning is itself probabilistic. Recent investigations accordingly suggest a way to integrate probability and deduction. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Free probability and random matrices
Mingo, James A
2017-01-01
This volume opens the world of free probability to a wide variety of readers. From its roots in the theory of operator algebras, free probability has intertwined with non-crossing partitions, random matrices, applications in wireless communications, representation theory of large groups, quantum groups, the invariant subspace problem, large deviations, subfactors, and beyond. This book puts a special emphasis on the relation of free probability to random matrices, but also touches upon the operator algebraic, combinatorial, and analytic aspects of the theory. The book serves as a combination textbook/research monograph, with self-contained chapters, exercises scattered throughout the text, and coverage of important ongoing progress of the theory. It will appeal to graduate students and all mathematicians interested in random matrices and free probability from the point of view of operator algebras, combinatorics, analytic functions, or applications in engineering and statistical physics.
Introduction to probability and measure
Parthasarathy, K R
2005-01-01
According to a remark attributed to Mark Kac 'Probability Theory is a measure theory with a soul'. This book with its choice of proofs, remarks, examples and exercises has been prepared taking both these aesthetic and practical aspects into account.
Uncertainty, probability and information-gaps
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ben-Haim, Yakov
2004-01-01
This paper discusses two main ideas. First, we focus on info-gap uncertainty, as distinct from probability. Info-gap theory is especially suited for modelling and managing uncertainty in system models: we invest all our knowledge in formulating the best possible model; this leaves the modeller with very faulty and fragmentary information about the variation of reality around that optimal model. Second, we examine the interdependence between uncertainty modelling and decision-making. Good uncertainty modelling requires contact with the end-use, namely, with the decision-making application of the uncertainty model. The most important avenue of uncertainty-propagation is from initial data- and model-uncertainties into uncertainty in the decision-domain. Two questions arise. Is the decision robust to the initial uncertainties? Is the decision prone to opportune windfall success? We apply info-gap robustness and opportunity functions to the analysis of representation and propagation of uncertainty in several of the Sandia Challenge Problems
Return Migration and Working Choices
TANI, Massimiliano; MAHUTEAU, Stéphane
2008-01-01
Collective Action to Support the Reintegration of Return Migrants in their Country of Origin (MIREM) This paper uses the recent survey carried out in the framework of the MIREM project on returnees to Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia and studies the duration of emigration and the labour force status upon returning. The results suggest that age and the year of emigration play a central role in the migration decision, but they do not support the hypothesis that the duration of migration is deter...
Capital Structure and Stock Returns
Ivo Welch
2002-01-01
U.S. corporations do not issue and repurchase debt and equity to counteract the mechanistic effects of stock returns on their debt-equity ratios. Thus over one- to five-year horizons, stock returns can explain about 40 percent of debt ratio dynamics. Although corporate net issuing activity is lively and although it can explain 60 percent of debt ratio dynamics (long-term debt issuing activity being most capital structurerelevant), corporate issuing motives remain largely a mystery. When stock...
[Organising a successful return home].
Mézière, Anthony
Discharge from hospital is a major component of the quality and efficiency of the healthcare system. The failures of the return home of elderly people testify to the difficulties of applying guidelines in the area of hospital discharge. The action plan decided in the hospital for a successful return home can be jeopardised for personal, relational, functional and structural reasons originating from the different players involved in the hospital discharge. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.
Joint probabilities and quantum cognition
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Acacio de Barros, J.
2012-01-01
In this paper we discuss the existence of joint probability distributions for quantumlike response computations in the brain. We do so by focusing on a contextual neural-oscillator model shown to reproduce the main features of behavioral stimulus-response theory. We then exhibit a simple example of contextual random variables not having a joint probability distribution, and describe how such variables can be obtained from neural oscillators, but not from a quantum observable algebra.
Joint probabilities and quantum cognition
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Acacio de Barros, J. [Liberal Studies, 1600 Holloway Ave., San Francisco State University, San Francisco, CA 94132 (United States)
2012-12-18
In this paper we discuss the existence of joint probability distributions for quantumlike response computations in the brain. We do so by focusing on a contextual neural-oscillator model shown to reproduce the main features of behavioral stimulus-response theory. We then exhibit a simple example of contextual random variables not having a joint probability distribution, and describe how such variables can be obtained from neural oscillators, but not from a quantum observable algebra.
Default probabilities and default correlations
Erlenmaier, Ulrich; Gersbach, Hans
2001-01-01
Starting from the Merton framework for firm defaults, we provide the analytics and robustness of the relationship between default correlations. We show that loans with higher default probabilities will not only have higher variances but also higher correlations between loans. As a consequence, portfolio standard deviation can increase substantially when loan default probabilities rise. This result has two important implications. First, relative prices of loans with different default probabili...
The Probabilities of Unique Events
2012-08-30
Washington, DC USA Max Lotstein and Phil Johnson-Laird Department of Psychology Princeton University Princeton, NJ USA August 30th 2012...social justice and also participated in antinuclear demonstrations. The participants ranked the probability that Linda is a feminist bank teller as...retorted that such a flagrant violation of the probability calculus was a result of a psychological experiment that obscured the rationality of the
Probability Matching, Fast and Slow
Koehler, Derek J.; James, Greta
2014-01-01
A prominent point of contention among researchers regarding the interpretation of probability-matching behavior is whether it represents a cognitively sophisticated, adaptive response to the inherent uncertainty of the tasks or settings in which it is observed, or whether instead it represents a fundamental shortcoming in the heuristics that support and guide human decision making. Put crudely, researchers disagree on whether probability matching is "smart" or "dumb." Here, we consider eviden...
Current thinking: return to play and transient quadriplegia.
Cantu, Robert V; Cantu, Robert C
2005-02-01
Athletes that participate in contact and collision sports assume risk of serious injury each time they take the field. For those athletes that have sustained an episode of transient quadriplegia, the decision of whether to return to competition can be a difficult one. Some athletes, realizing how close they may have come to permanent injury, may decide that further participation is not in their best interest. Others may be somewhat undecided, and some may want to return at all costs. As the treating physician, the goal is to identify those athletes who after a single episode of transient quadriplegia are at increased risk for further injury and consequently should discontinue participation in contact sports. Factors that may contribute to that determination include mechanism of injury, prior history of neurologic symptoms or injury, and anatomic features that may predispose to further injury such as disc herniation, fracture, or cervical stenosis.
Ratio K: a New Way of Metering and Evaluating the Risk and Return of Stock Investment
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
朱淑珍; 朱静怡
2003-01-01
Although widely used, both the Markowitz model and VAR (Value at Risk) model have some limitations in evaluating the risk and return of stock investnent.By the analysis of the conceptions of risk and return,together with the three hypotheses of technological analysis, a novelty model of metering and evaluating the risk and return of stock investnent is established.The major indicator of this model , risk-return ratio K, combines the characteristic indicators of risk and return. Regardless of the form of the risk-return probability density functions, this indicator K can always reflect the risk-return performances of the invested stocks clearly and accurately. How to use the model to make optimum investment and how to make portfolio combined with clustering analysis is also explained.
Multivariate return periods of sea storms for coastal erosion risk assessment
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
S. Corbella
2012-08-01
Full Text Available The erosion of a beach depends on various storm characteristics. Ideally, the risk associated with a storm would be described by a single multivariate return period that is also representative of the erosion risk, i.e. a 100 yr multivariate storm return period would cause a 100 yr erosion return period. Unfortunately, a specific probability level may be associated with numerous combinations of storm characteristics. These combinations, despite having the same multivariate probability, may cause very different erosion outcomes. This paper explores this ambiguity problem in the context of copula based multivariate return periods and using a case study at Durban on the east coast of South Africa. Simulations were used to correlate multivariate return periods of historical events to return periods of estimated storm induced erosion volumes. In addition, the relationship of the most-likely design event (Salvadori et al., 2011 to coastal erosion was investigated. It was found that the multivariate return periods for wave height and duration had the highest correlation to erosion return periods. The most-likely design event was found to be an inadequate design method in its current form. We explore the inclusion of conditions based on the physical realizability of wave events and the use of multivariate linear regression to relate storm parameters to erosion computed from a process based model. Establishing a link between storm statistics and erosion consequences can resolve the ambiguity between multivariate storm return periods and associated erosion return periods.
Full Text Available ... eye-care professional. Retailers that sell contacts without a prescription are breaking the law, and may be fined $11,000 per violation. "Many of the lenses found online or in beauty salons, novelty shops or in pop-up ... contact lenses from a retailer that does not ask for a prescription. ...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cuthrell, R.E.
1976-01-01
Electrical contacts must function properly in many types of components used in nuclear weapon systems. Design, application, and testing of these components require detailed knowledge of chemical and physical phenomena associated with stockpile storage, stockpile testing, and operation. In the past, investigation of these phenomena has led to significant discoveries on the effects of surface contaminants, friction and wear, and the mechanics of closure on contact performance. A recent investigation of contact arcing phenomena which revealed that, preceding contact closure, arcs may occur at voltages lower than had been previously known is described. This discovery is important, since arcing may damage contacts, and repetitive testing of contacts performed as part of a quality assurance program might produce cumulative damage that would yield misleading life-test data and could prevent proper operation of the contacts at some time in the future. This damage can be avoided by determining the conditions under which arcing occurs, and ensuring that these conditions are avoided in contact testing
Full Text Available ... Get follow up exams with your eye care provider. If you notice redness, swelling, excessive discharge, pain or discomfort from wearing contact lenses, remove the lenses and seek immediate medical attention from an ophthalmologist. Related resources: Learn how to properly care for contact lenses . ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
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advance. Your help is appreciated. Contact us by email Email doepatentscomments@osti.gov NOTE: Email us by phone Phone Phone (865) 241-5275 Contact us in writing Mail U.S. Department of Energy Office of non-federal websites. Their policies may differ from this site. Javascript Not Enabled Email Link
Full Text Available ... eye-care team . Consumer warning about the improper use of colored contact lenses , from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). Are the colored lenses you are considering buying approved by the FDA? Check the FDA's database of approved contact lenses . Related Stories Prevent Infection ...
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Andersen, Klaus Ejner; Benezra, C; Burrows, D
1987-01-01
In recent years, there has been a dramatic rise in our understanding of contact dermatitis. This paper is a review of our knowledge of the mechanisms involved in contact dermatitis and related phenomena, the investigation of these events and the emergence of significant new allergens during...
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Bravetti, Alessandro, E-mail: alessandro.bravetti@iimas.unam.mx [Instituto de Investigaciones en Matemáticas Aplicadas y en Sistemas, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, A. P. 70543, México, DF 04510 (Mexico); Cruz, Hans, E-mail: hans@ciencias.unam.mx [Instituto de Ciencias Nucleares, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, A. P. 70543, México, DF 04510 (Mexico); Tapias, Diego, E-mail: diego.tapias@nucleares.unam.mx [Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, A.P. 70543, México, DF 04510 (Mexico)
2017-01-15
In this work we introduce contact Hamiltonian mechanics, an extension of symplectic Hamiltonian mechanics, and show that it is a natural candidate for a geometric description of non-dissipative and dissipative systems. For this purpose we review in detail the major features of standard symplectic Hamiltonian dynamics and show that all of them can be generalized to the contact case.
Contact Quality in Participation
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Simonsen, Jesper; Jensen, Olav Storm
2016-01-01
We investigate the concept of participation from the perspective of quality of the contact in the communicative interactions between participants. We argue for the need for an academic-personal competence that qualifies the human contact central in all Participatory Design (PD) activities as a way...
Nigerian Food Journal: Contact
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Nigerian Food Journal. ... Nigerian Food Journal: Contact. Journal Home > About the Journal > Nigerian Food Journal: Contact. Log in or Register to get access to full text downloads. ... Mailing Address. Department of Food Science and Technology University of Agriculture, Makurdi, Nigeria ...
Full Text Available ... like a suction cup." Halloween is a popular time for people to use colored contact lenses to enhance their costumes. From ... MD, professor of ophthalmology at Case Western Reserve University in Cleveland. "This is far ... Use Facts About Colored Contacts and Halloween Safety Colored ...
Probably not future prediction using probability and statistical inference
Dworsky, Lawrence N
2008-01-01
An engaging, entertaining, and informative introduction to probability and prediction in our everyday lives Although Probably Not deals with probability and statistics, it is not heavily mathematical and is not filled with complex derivations, proofs, and theoretical problem sets. This book unveils the world of statistics through questions such as what is known based upon the information at hand and what can be expected to happen. While learning essential concepts including "the confidence factor" and "random walks," readers will be entertained and intrigued as they move from chapter to chapter. Moreover, the author provides a foundation of basic principles to guide decision making in almost all facets of life including playing games, developing winning business strategies, and managing personal finances. Much of the book is organized around easy-to-follow examples that address common, everyday issues such as: How travel time is affected by congestion, driving speed, and traffic lights Why different gambling ...
Quantifying Stock Return Distributions in Financial Markets.
Botta, Federico; Moat, Helen Susannah; Stanley, H Eugene; Preis, Tobias
2015-01-01
Being able to quantify the probability of large price changes in stock markets is of crucial importance in understanding financial crises that affect the lives of people worldwide. Large changes in stock market prices can arise abruptly, within a matter of minutes, or develop across much longer time scales. Here, we analyze a dataset comprising the stocks forming the Dow Jones Industrial Average at a second by second resolution in the period from January 2008 to July 2010 in order to quantify the distribution of changes in market prices at a range of time scales. We find that the tails of the distributions of logarithmic price changes, or returns, exhibit power law decays for time scales ranging from 300 seconds to 3600 seconds. For larger time scales, we find that the distributions tails exhibit exponential decay. Our findings may inform the development of models of market behavior across varying time scales.
Contact materials for nanoelectronics
Alshareef, Husam N.
2011-02-01
In this article, we review current research activities in contact material development for electronic and nanoelectronic devices. A fundamental issue in contact materials research is to understand and control interfacial reactions and phenomena that modify the expected device performance. These reactions have become more challenging and more difficult to control as new materials have been introduced and as device sizes have entered the deep nanoscale. To provide an overview of this field of inquiry, this issue of MRS Bulletin includes articles on gate and contact materials for Si-based devices, junction contact materials for Si-based devices, and contact materials for alternate channel substrates (Ge and III-V), nanodevices. © 2011 Materials Research Society.
Noneczematous Contact Dermatitis
Foti, Caterina; Vestita, Michelangelo; Angelini, Gianni
2013-01-01
Irritant or allergic contact dermatitis usually presents as an eczematous process, clinically characterized by erythematoedematovesicous lesions with intense itching in the acute phase. Such manifestations become erythematous-scaly as the condition progresses to the subacute phase and papular-hyperkeratotic in the chronic phase. Not infrequently, however, contact dermatitis presents with noneczematous features. The reasons underlying this clinical polymorphism lie in the different noxae and contact modalities, as well as in the individual susceptibility and the various targeted cutaneous structures. The most represented forms of non-eczematous contact dermatitis include the erythema multiforme-like, the purpuric, the lichenoid, and the pigmented kinds. These clinical entities must obviously be discerned from the corresponding “pure” dermatitis, which are not associated with contact with exogenous agents. PMID:24109520
Normal probability plots with confidence.
Chantarangsi, Wanpen; Liu, Wei; Bretz, Frank; Kiatsupaibul, Seksan; Hayter, Anthony J; Wan, Fang
2015-01-01
Normal probability plots are widely used as a statistical tool for assessing whether an observed simple random sample is drawn from a normally distributed population. The users, however, have to judge subjectively, if no objective rule is provided, whether the plotted points fall close to a straight line. In this paper, we focus on how a normal probability plot can be augmented by intervals for all the points so that, if the population distribution is normal, then all the points should fall into the corresponding intervals simultaneously with probability 1-α. These simultaneous 1-α probability intervals provide therefore an objective mean to judge whether the plotted points fall close to the straight line: the plotted points fall close to the straight line if and only if all the points fall into the corresponding intervals. The powers of several normal probability plot based (graphical) tests and the most popular nongraphical Anderson-Darling and Shapiro-Wilk tests are compared by simulation. Based on this comparison, recommendations are given in Section 3 on which graphical tests should be used in what circumstances. An example is provided to illustrate the methods. © 2014 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.
Probability theory a foundational course
Pakshirajan, R P
2013-01-01
This book shares the dictum of J. L. Doob in treating Probability Theory as a branch of Measure Theory and establishes this relation early. Probability measures in product spaces are introduced right at the start by way of laying the ground work to later claim the existence of stochastic processes with prescribed finite dimensional distributions. Other topics analysed in the book include supports of probability measures, zero-one laws in product measure spaces, Erdos-Kac invariance principle, functional central limit theorem and functional law of the iterated logarithm for independent variables, Skorohod embedding, and the use of analytic functions of a complex variable in the study of geometric ergodicity in Markov chains. This book is offered as a text book for students pursuing graduate programs in Mathematics and or Statistics. The book aims to help the teacher present the theory with ease, and to help the student sustain his interest and joy in learning the subject.
VIBRATION ISOLATION SYSTEM PROBABILITY ANALYSIS
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Smirnov Vladimir Alexandrovich
2012-10-01
Full Text Available The article deals with the probability analysis for a vibration isolation system of high-precision equipment, which is extremely sensitive to low-frequency oscillations even of submicron amplitude. The external sources of low-frequency vibrations may include the natural city background or internal low-frequency sources inside buildings (pedestrian activity, HVAC. Taking Gauss distribution into account, the author estimates the probability of the relative displacement of the isolated mass being still lower than the vibration criteria. This problem is being solved in the three dimensional space, evolved by the system parameters, including damping and natural frequency. According to this probability distribution, the chance of exceeding the vibration criteria for a vibration isolation system is evaluated. Optimal system parameters - damping and natural frequency - are being developed, thus the possibility of exceeding vibration criteria VC-E and VC-D is assumed to be less than 0.04.
Approximation methods in probability theory
Čekanavičius, Vydas
2016-01-01
This book presents a wide range of well-known and less common methods used for estimating the accuracy of probabilistic approximations, including the Esseen type inversion formulas, the Stein method as well as the methods of convolutions and triangle function. Emphasising the correct usage of the methods presented, each step required for the proofs is examined in detail. As a result, this textbook provides valuable tools for proving approximation theorems. While Approximation Methods in Probability Theory will appeal to everyone interested in limit theorems of probability theory, the book is particularly aimed at graduate students who have completed a standard intermediate course in probability theory. Furthermore, experienced researchers wanting to enlarge their toolkit will also find this book useful.
Posterior labral injury in contact athletes.
Mair, S D; Zarzour, R H; Speer, K P
1998-01-01
Nine athletes (seven football offensive linemen, one defensive lineman, and one lacrosse player) were found at arthroscopy to have posterior labral detachment from the glenoid. In our series, this lesion is specific to contact athletes who engage their opponents with arms in front of the body. All patients had pain with bench pressing and while participating in their sport, diminishing their ability to play effectively. Conservative measures were ineffective in relieving their symptoms. Examination under anesthesia revealed symmetric glenohumeral translation bilaterally, without evidence of posterior instability. Treatment consisted of glenoid rim abradement and posterior labral repair with a bioabsorbable tack. All patients returned to complete at least one full season of contact sports and weightlifting without pain (minimum follow-up, > or = 2 years). Although many injuries leading to subluxation of the glenohumeral joint occur when an unanticipated force is applied, contact athletes ready their shoulder muscles in anticipation of impact with opponents. This leads to a compressive force at the glenohumeral joint. We hypothesize that, in combination with a posteriorly directed force at impact, the resultant vector is a shearing force to the posterior labrum and articular surface. Repeated exposure leads to posterior labral detachment without capsular injury. Posterior labral reattachment provides consistently good results, allowing the athlete to return to competition.
Invariance in the recurrence of large returns and the validation of models of price dynamics
Chang, Lo-Bin; Geman, Stuart; Hsieh, Fushing; Hwang, Chii-Ruey
2013-08-01
Starting from a robust, nonparametric definition of large returns (“excursions”), we study the statistics of their occurrences, focusing on the recurrence process. The empirical waiting-time distribution between excursions is remarkably invariant to year, stock, and scale (return interval). This invariance is related to self-similarity of the marginal distributions of returns, but the excursion waiting-time distribution is a function of the entire return process and not just its univariate probabilities. Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models, market-time transformations based on volume or trades, and generalized (Lévy) random-walk models all fail to fit the statistical structure of excursions.
Sealed Planetary Return Canister (SPRC), Phase II
National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Sample return missions have primary importance in future planetary missions. A basic requirement is that samples be returned in pristine, uncontaminated condition,...
Asset securitization and rate of return: A study on letters of guarantee
Wu, Binghui
2018-01-01
Using the theory of asset securitization, we analyze the feasibility of the securitization of letters of guarantee in theory. In the process of constructing the model of rate of return of securities backed by letters of guarantee, we propose two indices: the risk probability of asset-backed securities and the loss rate of asset-backed securities to analyze the cash flow of securities. On the basis of no arbitrage principle, the expression of rate of return of securities backed by letters of guarantee is put forward. In order to study the relationship between the rate of return of securities and other influential factor in the model, a simulation experiment is designed. The experiment results show that (i) an increasing risk probability of cash flow or a short maturity date also make the return rate of securities increase and (ii) the return rate of securities is higher in economic boom than that in economic recession when other parameters remain unchanged.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Tove, P.A.
1975-08-01
Contacts to semiconductors play an important role in most semiconductor devices. These devices range from microelectronics to power components, from high-sensitivity light or radiation detectors to light-emitting of microwave-generating components. Silicon is the dominating material but compound semiconductors are increasing in importance. The following survey is an attempt to classify contact properties and the physical mechanisms involved, as well as fabrication methods and methods of investigation. The main interest is in metal-semiconductor type contacts where a few basic concepts are dealt with in some detail. (Auth.)
Model uncertainty: Probabilities for models?
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Winkler, R.L.
1994-01-01
Like any other type of uncertainty, model uncertainty should be treated in terms of probabilities. The question is how to do this. The most commonly-used approach has a drawback related to the interpretation of the probabilities assigned to the models. If we step back and look at the big picture, asking what the appropriate focus of the model uncertainty question should be in the context of risk and decision analysis, we see that a different probabilistic approach makes more sense, although it raise some implementation questions. Current work that is underway to address these questions looks very promising
Knowledge typology for imprecise probabilities.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Wilson, G. D. (Gregory D.); Zucker, L. J. (Lauren J.)
2002-01-01
When characterizing the reliability of a complex system there are often gaps in the data available for specific subsystems or other factors influencing total system reliability. At Los Alamos National Laboratory we employ ethnographic methods to elicit expert knowledge when traditional data is scarce. Typically, we elicit expert knowledge in probabilistic terms. This paper will explore how we might approach elicitation if methods other than probability (i.e., Dempster-Shafer, or fuzzy sets) prove more useful for quantifying certain types of expert knowledge. Specifically, we will consider if experts have different types of knowledge that may be better characterized in ways other than standard probability theory.
Probability, Statistics, and Stochastic Processes
Olofsson, Peter
2011-01-01
A mathematical and intuitive approach to probability, statistics, and stochastic processes This textbook provides a unique, balanced approach to probability, statistics, and stochastic processes. Readers gain a solid foundation in all three fields that serves as a stepping stone to more advanced investigations into each area. This text combines a rigorous, calculus-based development of theory with a more intuitive approach that appeals to readers' sense of reason and logic, an approach developed through the author's many years of classroom experience. The text begins with three chapters that d
Statistical probability tables CALENDF program
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ribon, P.
1989-01-01
The purpose of the probability tables is: - to obtain dense data representation - to calculate integrals by quadratures. They are mainly used in the USA for calculations by Monte Carlo and in the USSR and Europe for self-shielding calculations by the sub-group method. The moment probability tables, in addition to providing a more substantial mathematical basis and calculation methods, are adapted for condensation and mixture calculations, which are the crucial operations for reactor physics specialists. However, their extension is limited by the statistical hypothesis they imply. Efforts are being made to remove this obstacle, at the cost, it must be said, of greater complexity
Probability, statistics, and queueing theory
Allen, Arnold O
1990-01-01
This is a textbook on applied probability and statistics with computer science applications for students at the upper undergraduate level. It may also be used as a self study book for the practicing computer science professional. The successful first edition of this book proved extremely useful to students who need to use probability, statistics and queueing theory to solve problems in other fields, such as engineering, physics, operations research, and management science. The book has also been successfully used for courses in queueing theory for operations research students. This second edit
Probability and Statistics: 5 Questions
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Probability and Statistics: 5 Questions is a collection of short interviews based on 5 questions presented to some of the most influential and prominent scholars in probability and statistics. We hear their views on the fields, aims, scopes, the future direction of research and how their work fits...... in these respects. Interviews with Nick Bingham, Luc Bovens, Terrence L. Fine, Haim Gaifman, Donald Gillies, James Hawthorne, Carl Hoefer, James M. Joyce, Joseph B. Kadane Isaac Levi, D.H. Mellor, Patrick Suppes, Jan von Plato, Carl Wagner, Sandy Zabell...
Abnormal Returns and Contrarian Strategies
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ivana Dall'Agnol
2003-12-01
Full Text Available We test the hypothesis that strategies which are long on portfolios of looser stocks and short on portfolios of winner stocks generate abnormal returns in Brazil. This type of evidence for the US stock market was interpreted by The Bondt and Thaler (1985 as reflecting systematic evaluation mistakes caused by investors overreaction to news related to the firm performance. We found evidence of contrarian strategies profitability for horizons from 3 months to 3 years in a sample of stock returns from BOVESPA and SOMA from 1986 to 2000. The strategies are more profitable for shorter horizons. Therefore, there was no trace of the momentum effect found by Jagadeesh and Titman (1993 for the same horizons with US data. There are remaing unexplained positive returns for contrarian strategies after accounting for risk, size, and liquidity. We also found that the strategy profitability is reduced after the Real Plan, which suggests that the Brazilian stock market became more efficient after inflation stabilization.
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Full Text Available ... about the members of the eye-care team . Consumer warning about the improper use of colored contact ... About the Academy Jobs at the Academy Financial Relationships with Industry Medical Disclaimer Privacy Policy Terms of ...
Kreiss, Gunilla; Holmgren, Hanna; Kronbichler, Martin; Ge, Anthony; Brant, Luca
2017-11-01
The conventional no-slip boundary condition leads to a non-integrable stress singularity at a moving contact line. This makes numerical simulations of two-phase flow challenging, especially when capillarity of the contact point is essential for the dynamics of the flow. We will describe a modeling methodology, which is suitable for numerical simulations, and present results from numerical computations. The methodology is based on combining a relation between the apparent contact angle and the contact line velocity, with the similarity solution for Stokes flow at a planar interface. The relation between angle and velocity can be determined by theoretical arguments, or from simulations using a more detailed model. In our approach we have used results from phase field simulations in a small domain, but using a molecular dynamics model should also be possible. In both cases more physics is included and the stress singularity is removed.
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These technical contacts are available to help with questions regarding method deviations, modifications, sample problems or interferences, quality control requirements, the use of alternative methods, or the need to address analytes or sample types.
Full Text Available ... colored contact lenses , from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). Are the colored lenses you are ... this month in the New England Journal of Medicine. Unfortunately, this kind of injury is all too ...
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DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Alberti, Mark; la Cour, Morten
2018-01-01
PURPOSE: To compare gas-foveal contact in face-down positioning (FDP) and nonsupine positioning (NSP), to analyze causes of gas-foveal separation and to determine how gas-foveal contact affects clinical outcome after idiopathic macular hole repair. METHODS: Single center, randomized controlled...... study. Participants with an idiopathic macular hole were allocated to either FDP or NSP. Primary outcome was gas-foveal contact, calculated by analyzing positioning in relation to intraocular gas fill. Positioning was measured with an electronic device recording positioning for 72 hours postoperatively....... RESULTS: Positioning data were available for 33/35 in the FDP group and 35/37 in the NSP group, thus results are based on 68 analyzed participants. Median gas-foveal contact was 99.82% (range 73.6-100.0) in the FDP group and 99.57% (range 85.3-100.0) in the NSP group (P = 0.22). In a statistical model...
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Full Text Available ... seek immediate medical attention from an ophthalmologist. Related resources: Learn how to properly care for contact lenses . ... have given blind patients some functional vision, using human embryonic stem cells. Two blind patients regained enough ...
Full Text Available ... that decorative lenses do not require the same level of care or consideration as a standard contact ... By Kate Rauch In a small but intriguing study, scientists in England have given blind patients some ...
Full Text Available ... MD, professor of ophthalmology at Case Western Reserve University in Cleveland. "This is far from the truth." Real People, Real Problems with Colored Contact Lenses Julian: Teenager Blinded In ...
Full Text Available ... also available in Spanish . Follow The Academy Professionals: Education Guidelines News Multimedia Public & Patients: Contact Us About the Academy Jobs at the Academy Financial Relationships with Industry Medical Disclaimer Privacy Policy Terms ...
Full Text Available ... lentes de contacto de color Sep. 26, 2013 It started as an impulsive buy from a souvenir ... Can Ruin Vision Eye Makeup Safety In fact, it is illegal to sell colored contact lenses without ...
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Full Text Available ... videos on your website Promotional materials for eye health observances EyeSmart resources are also available in Spanish . Follow The Academy Professionals: Education Guidelines News Multimedia Public & Patients: Contact Us About the Academy Jobs at ...
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Full Text Available ... sell contacts without a prescription are breaking the law, and may be fined $11,000 per violation. " ... Us About the Academy Jobs at the Academy Financial Relationships with Industry Medical Disclaimer Privacy Policy Terms ...
Full Text Available ... sell contacts without a prescription are breaking the law, and may be fined $11,000 per violation. " ... 13, 2017 Histoplasmosis Diagnosis Sep 01, 2017 How common is retinal detachment for people with high myopia? ...
Full Text Available ... Ophthalmology/Strabismus Ocular Pathology/Oncology Oculoplastics/Orbit Refractive Management/Intervention Retina/Vitreous Uveitis Focus ... Eye Health A-Z Symptoms Glasses & Contacts Tips & ...
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African Journals Online (AJOL)
Principal Contact. Mrs June McDougall. Rhodes University. Department of Human Kinetics and Ergonomics. P.O. Box 94. Rhodes University. Grahamstown. 6140. Phone: +27 46 6038471. Email: j.mcdougall@ru.ac.za ...
Full Text Available ... contact lenses , from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). Are the colored lenses you are considering buying approved by ... 23, 2018 Solar Eclipse Inflicts Damage in the Shape of ...
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DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Paulsen, Evy; Christensen, Lars P; Andersen, Klaus Ejner
2012-01-01
The tomato plant (Solanum lycopersicum) is an important crop worldwide. Whereas immediate-type reactions to tomato fruits are well known, contact dermatitis caused by tomatoes or tomato plants is rarely reported. The aims of this study were to present new data on contact sensitization to tomato...... plants and review the literature on contact dermatitis caused by both plants and fruits. An ether extract of tomato plants made as the original oleoresin plant extracts, was used in aimed patch testing, and between 2005 and 2011. 8 of 93 patients (9%) tested positive to the oleoresin extracts....... This prevalence is in accordance with the older literature that reports tomato plants as occasional sensitizers. The same applies to tomato fruits, which, in addition, may cause protein contact dermatitis. The allergens of the plant are unknown, but both heat-stable and heat-labile constituents seem...
Fragrance allergic contact dermatitis.
Cheng, Judy; Zug, Kathryn A
2014-01-01
Fragrances are a common cause of allergic contact dermatitis in Europe and in North America. They can affect individuals at any age and elicit a spectrum of reactions from contact urticaria to systemic contact dermatitis. Growing recognition of the widespread use of fragrances in modern society has fueled attempts to prevent sensitization through improved allergen identification, labeling, and consumer education. This review provides an overview and update on fragrance allergy. Part 1 discusses the epidemiology and evaluation of suspected fragrance allergy. Part 2 reviews screening methods, emerging fragrance allergens, and management of patients with fragrance contact allergy. This review concludes by examining recent legislation on fragrances and suggesting potential additions to screening series to help prevent and detect fragrance allergy.
Full Text Available ... Follow The Academy Professionals: Education Guidelines News Multimedia Public & Patients: Contact Us About the Academy Jobs at the Academy Financial Relationships with Industry Medical Disclaimer Privacy Policy Terms of Service For Advertisers For Media Ophthalmology ...
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Full Text Available ... also available in Spanish . Follow The Academy Professionals: Education Guidelines News Multimedia Public & Patients: Contact Us About the Academy Jobs at the Academy Financial Relationships with Industry Medical ...
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Return-to-work coordination programmes for improving return to work in workers on sick leave.
Vogel, Nicole; Schandelmaier, Stefan; Zumbrunn, Thomas; Ebrahim, Shanil; de Boer, Wout El; Busse, Jason W; Kunz, Regina
2017-03-30
To limit long-term sick leave and associated consequences, insurers, healthcare providers and employers provide programmes to facilitate disabled people's return to work. These programmes include a variety of coordinated and individualised interventions. Despite the increasing popularity of such programmes, their benefits remain uncertain. We conducted a systematic review to determine the long-term effectiveness of return-to-work coordination programmes compared to usual practice in workers at risk for long-term disability. To assess the effects of return-to-work coordination programmes versus usual practice for workers on sick leave or disability. We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL; 2016, Issue 11), MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL and PsycINFO up to 1 November 2016. We included randomised controlled trials (RCTs) that enrolled workers absent from work for at least four weeks and randomly assigned them to return-to-work coordination programmes or usual practice. Two review authors independently screened titles, abstracts and full-text articles for study eligibility; extracted data; and assessed risk of bias from eligible trials. We contacted authors for additional data where required. We conducted random-effects meta-analyses and used the GRADE approach to rate the quality of the evidence. We identified 14 studies from nine countries that enrolled 12,568 workers. Eleven studies focused on musculoskeletal problems, two on mental health and one on both. Most studies (11 of 14) followed workers 12 months or longer. Risk of bias was low in 10 and high in 4 studies, but findings were not sensitive to their exclusion.We found no benefits for return-to-work coordination programmes on return-to-work outcomes.For short-term follow-up of six months, we found no effect on time to return to work (hazard ratio (HR) 1.32, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.93 to 1.88, low-quality evidence), cumulative sickness absence (mean difference (MD) -16.18 work
Dynamic returns of beta arbitrage
Nascimento, Mafalda
2017-01-01
This thesis studies the patterns of the abnormal returns of the beta strategy. The topic can be helpful for professional investors, who intend to achieve a better performance in their portfolios. Following the methodology of Lou, Polk, & Huang (2016), the COBAR measure is computed in order to determine the levels of beta arbitrage in the market in each point in time. It is argued that beta arbitrage activity can have impact on the returns of the beta strategy. In fact, it is demonstrated that...
Sovereign Risk and Currently Returns
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Della Corte, Pasquale; Sarno, Lucio; Schmeling, Maik
We empirically investigate the relation between sovereign risk and exchange rates for a broad set of currencies. An increase in the credit default swap (CDS) spread of a country is accompanied by a significant depreciation of the exchange rate. More generally, CDS spread changes have substantial...... explanatory power for currency returns which is largely driven by shocks to global credit risk. Consistent with the notion that sovereign risk is priced, we find that a country's exposure to global credit risk forecasts excess returns to trading exchange rates as well as to trading on the volatility, skewness...
Sovereign Risk and Currency Returns
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Della Corte, Pasquale; Sarno, Lucio; Schmeling, Maik
We empirically investigate the relation between sovereign risk and exchange rates for a broad set of currencies. An increase in the credit default swap (CDS) spread of a country is accompanied by a significant depreciation of the exchange rate. More generally, CDS spread changes have substantial...... explanatory power for currency returns which is largely driven by shocks to global credit risk. Consistent with the notion that sovereign risk is priced, we find that a country's exposure to global credit risk forecasts excess returns to trading exchange rates as well as to trading on the volatility, skewness...
Dynamic SEP event probability forecasts
Kahler, S. W.; Ling, A.
2015-10-01
The forecasting of solar energetic particle (SEP) event probabilities at Earth has been based primarily on the estimates of magnetic free energy in active regions and on the observations of peak fluxes and fluences of large (≥ M2) solar X-ray flares. These forecasts are typically issued for the next 24 h or with no definite expiration time, which can be deficient for time-critical operations when no SEP event appears following a large X-ray flare. It is therefore important to decrease the event probability forecast with time as a SEP event fails to appear. We use the NOAA listing of major (≥10 pfu) SEP events from 1976 to 2014 to plot the delay times from X-ray peaks to SEP threshold onsets as a function of solar source longitude. An algorithm is derived to decrease the SEP event probabilities with time when no event is observed to reach the 10 pfu threshold. In addition, we use known SEP event size distributions to modify probability forecasts when SEP intensity increases occur below the 10 pfu event threshold. An algorithm to provide a dynamic SEP event forecast, Pd, for both situations of SEP intensities following a large flare is derived.
Conditional Independence in Applied Probability.
Pfeiffer, Paul E.
This material assumes the user has the background provided by a good undergraduate course in applied probability. It is felt that introductory courses in calculus, linear algebra, and perhaps some differential equations should provide the requisite experience and proficiency with mathematical concepts, notation, and argument. The document is…
Stretching Probability Explorations with Geoboards
Wheeler, Ann; Champion, Joe
2016-01-01
Students are faced with many transitions in their middle school mathematics classes. To build knowledge, skills, and confidence in the key areas of algebra and geometry, students often need to practice using numbers and polygons in a variety of contexts. Teachers also want students to explore ideas from probability and statistics. Teachers know…
GPS: Geometry, Probability, and Statistics
Field, Mike
2012-01-01
It might be said that for most occupations there is now less of a need for mathematics than there was say fifty years ago. But, the author argues, geometry, probability, and statistics constitute essential knowledge for everyone. Maybe not the geometry of Euclid, but certainly geometrical ways of thinking that might enable us to describe the world…
Swedish earthquakes and acceleration probabilities
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Slunga, R.
1979-03-01
A method to assign probabilities to ground accelerations for Swedish sites is described. As hardly any nearfield instrumental data is available we are left with the problem of interpreting macroseismic data in terms of acceleration. By theoretical wave propagation computations the relation between seismic strength of the earthquake, focal depth, distance and ground accelerations are calculated. We found that most Swedish earthquake of the area, the 1904 earthquake 100 km south of Oslo, is an exception and probably had a focal depth exceeding 25 km. For the nuclear power plant sites an annual probability of 10 -5 has been proposed as interesting. This probability gives ground accelerations in the range 5-20 % for the sites. This acceleration is for a free bedrock site. For consistency all acceleration results in this study are given for bedrock sites. When applicating our model to the 1904 earthquake and assuming the focal zone to be in the lower crust we get the epicentral acceleration of this earthquake to be 5-15 % g. The results above are based on an analyses of macrosismic data as relevant instrumental data is lacking. However, the macroseismic acceleration model deduced in this study gives epicentral ground acceleration of small Swedish earthquakes in agreement with existent distant instrumental data. (author)
DECOFF Probabilities of Failed Operations
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Gintautas, Tomas
2015-01-01
A statistical procedure of estimation of Probabilities of Failed Operations is described and exemplified using ECMWF weather forecasts and SIMO output from Rotor Lift test case models. Also safety factor influence is investigated. DECOFF statistical method is benchmarked against standard Alpha-factor...
Risk estimation using probability machines
2014-01-01
Background Logistic regression has been the de facto, and often the only, model used in the description and analysis of relationships between a binary outcome and observed features. It is widely used to obtain the conditional probabilities of the outcome given predictors, as well as predictor effect size estimates using conditional odds ratios. Results We show how statistical learning machines for binary outcomes, provably consistent for the nonparametric regression problem, can be used to provide both consistent conditional probability estimation and conditional effect size estimates. Effect size estimates from learning machines leverage our understanding of counterfactual arguments central to the interpretation of such estimates. We show that, if the data generating model is logistic, we can recover accurate probability predictions and effect size estimates with nearly the same efficiency as a correct logistic model, both for main effects and interactions. We also propose a method using learning machines to scan for possible interaction effects quickly and efficiently. Simulations using random forest probability machines are presented. Conclusions The models we propose make no assumptions about the data structure, and capture the patterns in the data by just specifying the predictors involved and not any particular model structure. So they do not run the same risks of model mis-specification and the resultant estimation biases as a logistic model. This methodology, which we call a “risk machine”, will share properties from the statistical machine that it is derived from. PMID:24581306
Probability and statistics: A reminder
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Clement, B.
2013-01-01
The main purpose of these lectures is to provide the reader with the tools needed to data analysis in the framework of physics experiments. Basic concepts are introduced together with examples of application in experimental physics. The lecture is divided into two parts: probability and statistics. It is build on the introduction from 'data analysis in experimental sciences' given in [1]. (authors)
Nash equilibrium with lower probabilities
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Groes, Ebbe; Jacobsen, Hans Jørgen; Sloth, Birgitte
1998-01-01
We generalize the concept of Nash equilibrium in mixed strategies for strategic form games to allow for ambiguity in the players' expectations. In contrast to other contributions, we model ambiguity by means of so-called lower probability measures or belief functions, which makes it possible...
On probability-possibility transformations
Klir, George J.; Parviz, Behzad
1992-01-01
Several probability-possibility transformations are compared in terms of the closeness of preserving second-order properties. The comparison is based on experimental results obtained by computer simulation. Two second-order properties are involved in this study: noninteraction of two distributions and projections of a joint distribution.
Paulsen, Evy; Andersen, Klaus E
2016-02-01
Lettuce (Lactuca sativa L.) and its varieties are important vegetable crops worldwide. They are also well-known, rarely reported, causes of contact allergy. As lettuce allergens and extracts are not commercially available, the allergy may be underdiagnosed. The aims of this article are to present new data on lettuce contact allergy and review the literature. Lettuce is weakly allergenic, and occupational cases are mainly reported. Using aimed patch testing in Compositae-allergic patients, two recent Danish studies showed prevalence rates of positive lettuce reactions of 11% and 22%. The majority of cases are non-occupational, and may partly be caused by cross-reactivity. The sesquiterpene lactone mix seems to be a poor screening agent for lettuce contact allergy, as the prevalence of positive reactions is significantly higher in non-occupationally sensitized patients. Because of the easy degradability of lettuce allergens, it is recommended to patch test with freshly cut lettuce stem and supplement this with Compositae mix. As contact urticaria and protein contact dermatitis may present as dermatitis, it is important to perform prick-to-prick tests, and possibly scratch patch tests as well. Any person who is occupationally exposed to lettuce for longer periods, especially atopics, amateur gardeners, and persons keeping lettuce-eating pets, is potentially at risk of developing lettuce contact allergy. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Patients with multiple contact allergies
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Carlsen, Berit Christina; Andersen, Klaus Ejner; Menné, Torkil
2008-01-01
Patients with multiple contact allergies, also referred to as polysensitized, are more frequent than predicted from prevalence of single sensitivities. The understanding of why some people develop multiple contact allergies, and characterization of patients with multiple contact allergies...... of developing multiple contact allergies. Evidence of allergen clusters among polysensitized individuals is also reviewed. The literature supports the idea that patients with multiple contact allergies constitute a special entity within the field of contact allergy. There is no generally accepted definition...... of patients with multiple contact allergies. We suggest that contact allergy to 3 or more allergens are defined as multiple contact allergies....
Comet coma sample return instrument
Albee, A. L.; Brownlee, Don E.; Burnett, Donald S.; Tsou, Peter; Uesugi, K. T.
1994-01-01
The sample collection technology and instrument concept for the Sample of Comet Coma Earth Return Mission (SOCCER) are described. The scientific goals of this Flyby Sample Return are to return to coma dust and volatile samples from a known comet source, which will permit accurate elemental and isotopic measurements for thousands of individual solid particles and volatiles, detailed analysis of the dust structure, morphology, and mineralogy of the intact samples, and identification of the biogenic elements or compounds in the solid and volatile samples. Having these intact samples, morphologic, petrographic, and phase structural features can be determined. Information on dust particle size, shape, and density can be ascertained by analyzing penetration holes and tracks in the capture medium. Time and spatial data of dust capture will provide understanding of the flux dynamics of the coma and the jets. Additional information will include the identification of cosmic ray tracks in the cometary grains, which can provide a particle's process history and perhaps even the age of the comet. The measurements will be made with the same equipment used for studying micrometeorites for decades past; hence, the results can be directly compared without extrapolation or modification. The data will provide a powerful and direct technique for comparing the cometary samples with all known types of meteorites and interplanetary dust. This sample collection system will provide the first sample return from a specifically identified primitive body and will allow, for the first time, a direct method of matching meteoritic materials captured on Earth with known parent bodies.
Phobos Sample Return: Next Approach
Zelenyi, Lev; Martynov, Maxim; Zakharov, Alexander; Korablev, Oleg; Ivanov, Alexey; Karabadzak, George
The Martian moons still remain a mystery after numerous studies by Mars orbiting spacecraft. Their study cover three major topics related to (1) Solar system in general (formation and evolution, origin of planetary satellites, origin and evolution of life); (2) small bodies (captured asteroid, or remnants of Mars formation, or reaccreted Mars ejecta); (3) Mars (formation and evolution of Mars; Mars ejecta at the satellites). As reviewed by Galimov [2010] most of the above questions require the sample return from the Martian moon, while some (e.g. the characterization of the organic matter) could be also answered by in situ experiments. There is the possibility to obtain the sample of Mars material by sampling Phobos: following to Chappaz et al. [2012] a 200-g sample could contain 10-7 g of Mars surface material launched during the past 1 mln years, or 5*10-5 g of Mars material launched during the past 10 mln years, or 5*1010 individual particles from Mars, quantities suitable for accurate laboratory analyses. The studies of Phobos have been of high priority in the Russian program on planetary research for many years. Phobos-88 mission consisted of two spacecraft (Phobos-1, Phobos-2) and aimed the approach to Phobos at 50 m and remote studies, and also the release of small landers (long-living stations DAS). This mission implemented the program incompletely. It was returned information about the Martian environment and atmosphere. The next profect Phobos Sample Return (Phobos-Grunt) initially planned in early 2000 has been delayed several times owing to budget difficulties; the spacecraft failed to leave NEO in 2011. The recovery of the science goals of this mission and the delivery of the samples of Phobos to Earth remain of highest priority for Russian scientific community. The next Phobos SR mission named Boomerang was postponed following the ExoMars cooperation, but is considered the next in the line of planetary exploration, suitable for launch around 2022. A
Naive Probability: Model-based Estimates of Unique Events
2014-05-04
of inference. Argument and Computation, 1–17, iFirst. Khemlani, S., & Johnson-Laird, P.N. (2012b). Theories of the syllogism: A meta -analysis...is the probability that… 1 space tourism will achieve widespread popularity in the next 50 years? advances in material science will lead to the... governments dedicate more resources to contacting extra-terrestrials? 8 the United States adopts an open border policy of universal acceptance? English is
Feature discrimination/identification based upon SAR return variations
Rasco, W. A., Sr.; Pietsch, R.
1978-01-01
A study of the statistics of The look-to-look variation statistics in the returns recorded in-flight by a digital, realtime SAR system are analyzed. The determination that the variations in the look-to-look returns from different classes do carry information content unique to the classes was illustrated by a model based on four variants derived from four look in-flight SAR data under study. The model was limited to four classes of returns: mowed grass on a athletic field, rough unmowed grass and weeds on a large vacant field, young fruit trees in a large orchard, and metal mobile homes and storage buildings in a large mobile home park. The data population in excess of 1000 returns represented over 250 individual pixels from the four classes. The multivariant discriminant model operated on the set of returns for each pixel and assigned that pixel to one of the four classes, based on the target variants and the probability distribution function of the four variants for each class.
Large deviations and idempotent probability
Puhalskii, Anatolii
2001-01-01
In the view of many probabilists, author Anatolii Puhalskii''s research results stand among the most significant achievements in the modern theory of large deviations. In fact, his work marked a turning point in the depth of our understanding of the connections between the large deviation principle (LDP) and well-known methods for establishing weak convergence results.Large Deviations and Idempotent Probability expounds upon the recent methodology of building large deviation theory along the lines of weak convergence theory. The author develops an idempotent (or maxitive) probability theory, introduces idempotent analogues of martingales (maxingales), Wiener and Poisson processes, and Ito differential equations, and studies their properties. The large deviation principle for stochastic processes is formulated as a certain type of convergence of stochastic processes to idempotent processes. The author calls this large deviation convergence.The approach to establishing large deviation convergence uses novel com...
Probability biases as Bayesian inference
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Andre; C. R. Martins
2006-11-01
Full Text Available In this article, I will show how several observed biases in human probabilistic reasoning can be partially explained as good heuristics for making inferences in an environment where probabilities have uncertainties associated to them. Previous results show that the weight functions and the observed violations of coalescing and stochastic dominance can be understood from a Bayesian point of view. We will review those results and see that Bayesian methods should also be used as part of the explanation behind other known biases. That means that, although the observed errors are still errors under the be understood as adaptations to the solution of real life problems. Heuristics that allow fast evaluations and mimic a Bayesian inference would be an evolutionary advantage, since they would give us an efficient way of making decisions. %XX In that sense, it should be no surprise that humans reason with % probability as it has been observed.
Probability matching and strategy availability.
Koehler, Derek J; James, Greta
2010-09-01
Findings from two experiments indicate that probability matching in sequential choice arises from an asymmetry in strategy availability: The matching strategy comes readily to mind, whereas a superior alternative strategy, maximizing, does not. First, compared with the minority who spontaneously engage in maximizing, the majority of participants endorse maximizing as superior to matching in a direct comparison when both strategies are described. Second, when the maximizing strategy is brought to their attention, more participants subsequently engage in maximizing. Third, matchers are more likely than maximizers to base decisions in other tasks on their initial intuitions, suggesting that they are more inclined to use a choice strategy that comes to mind quickly. These results indicate that a substantial subset of probability matchers are victims of "underthinking" rather than "overthinking": They fail to engage in sufficient deliberation to generate a superior alternative to the matching strategy that comes so readily to mind.
Probability as a Physical Motive
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Peter Martin
2007-04-01
Full Text Available Recent theoretical progress in nonequilibrium thermodynamics, linking thephysical principle of Maximum Entropy Production (Ã¢Â€ÂœMEPÃ¢Â€Â to the information-theoreticalÃ¢Â€ÂœMaxEntÃ¢Â€Â principle of scientific inference, together with conjectures from theoreticalphysics that there may be no fundamental causal laws but only probabilities for physicalprocesses, and from evolutionary theory that biological systems expand Ã¢Â€Âœthe adjacentpossibleÃ¢Â€Â as rapidly as possible, all lend credence to the proposition that probability shouldbe recognized as a fundamental physical motive. It is further proposed that spatial order andtemporal order are two aspects of the same thing, and that this is the essence of the secondlaw of thermodynamics.
Logic, Probability, and Human Reasoning
2015-01-01
accordingly suggest a way to integrate probability and deduction. The nature of deductive reasoning To be rational is to be able to make deductions...3–6] and they underlie mathematics, science, and tech- nology [7–10]. Plato claimed that emotions upset reason- ing. However, individuals in the grip...fundamental to human rationality . So, if counterexamples to its principal predictions occur, the theory will at least explain its own refutation
Probability Measures on Groups IX
1989-01-01
The latest in this series of Oberwolfach conferences focussed on the interplay between structural probability theory and various other areas of pure and applied mathematics such as Tauberian theory, infinite-dimensional rotation groups, central limit theorems, harmonizable processes, and spherical data. Thus it was attended by mathematicians whose research interests range from number theory to quantum physics in conjunction with structural properties of probabilistic phenomena. This volume contains 5 survey articles submitted on special invitation and 25 original research papers.
Probability matching and strategy availability
J. Koehler, Derek; Koehler, Derek J.; James, Greta
2010-01-01
Findings from two experiments indicate that probability matching in sequential choice arises from an asymmetry in strategy availability: The matching strategy comes readily to mind, whereas a superior alternative strategy, maximizing, does not. First, compared with the minority who spontaneously engage in maximizing, the majority of participants endorse maximizing as superior to matching in a direct comparison when both strategies are described. Second, when the maximizing strategy is brought...
Grassi, Alberto; Vascellari, Alberto; Combi, Alberto; Tomaello, Luca; Canata, Gian Luigi; Zaffagnini, Stefano
2016-07-01
A worldwide consensus for timing and criteria for return to sport after anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) reconstruction is lacking. The aim of the study was to survey among the Italian Society of Knee, Arthroscopy, Sport, Cartilage and Orthopaedic Technologies (SIGASCOT) members in order to evaluate their approaches to the return to sport after ACL reconstruction regarding timing and criteria. A web survey among the SIGASCOT members was performed, including 14 questions regarding technical and graft preferences, timing for return to training and competitive activity for contact and non-contact sports and criteria to allow return to sport. Totally, 123 members completed the questionnaire. Return to training sports was allowed within 6 month by 87 % for non-contact sports and by 53 % for contact sports. Return to competitive activity was allowed within 6 months by 48 % for non-contact sports and by 13 % for contact sports. Full ROM (77 %), Lachman test (65 %) and Pivot-Shift test (65 %) were the most used criteria to allow return to sport. The 90 % used at least one clinical score. The SIGASCOT members showed various approaches in the return to sport after ACL reconstruction, with differences between return to training or competitive activity, and between contact and non-contact sports. Six months was generally considered adequate by most of the members for the most demanding activities. The most used criteria to allow return to sport were manual testing. A clear definition of sport activities and more objective criteria for the return to sport are needed. Level V, expert opinion.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
T Nguyen
2017-06-01
Full Text Available This paper studies the contact of general rough curved surfaces having nearly identical geometries, assuming the contact at each differential area obeys the model proposed by Greenwood and Williamson. In order to account for the most general gross geometry, principles of differential geometry of surface are applied. This method while requires more rigorous mathematical manipulations, the fact that it preserves the original surface geometries thus makes the modeling procedure much more intuitive. For subsequent use, differential geometry of axis-symmetric surface is considered instead of general surface (although this “general case” can be done as well in Chapter 3.1. The final formulas for contact area, load, and frictional torque are derived in Chapter 3.2.
Acrylate Systemic Contact Dermatitis.
Sauder, Maxwell B; Pratt, Melanie D
2015-01-01
Acrylates, the 2012 American Contact Dermatitis Society allergen of the year, are found in a range of products including the absorbent materials within feminine hygiene pads. When fully polymerized, acrylates are nonimmunogenic; however, if not completely cured, the monomers can be potent allergens.A 28-year-old woman is presented, who had her teeth varnished with Isodan (Septodont, Saint-Maur-des-Fossés, France) containing HEMA (2-hydroxyethyl methacrylate) with no initial reaction. Approximately 1 month later, the patient developed a genital dermatitis secondary to her feminine hygiene pads. The initial reaction resolved, but 5 months later, the patient developed a systemic contact dermatitis after receiving a second varnishing.The patient was dramatically patch test positive to many acrylates. This case demonstrates a reaction to likely unpolymerized acrylates within a feminine hygiene pad, as well as broad cross-reactivity or cosensitivity to acrylates, and possibly a systemic contact dermatitis with systemic re-exposure to unpolymerized acrylates.
Shoe allergic contact dermatitis.
Matthys, Erin; Zahir, Amir; Ehrlich, Alison
2014-01-01
Foot dermatitis is a widespread condition, affecting men and women of all ages. Because of the location, this condition may present as a debilitating problem to those who have it. Allergic contact dermatitis involving the feet is frequently due to shoes or socks. The allergens that cause shoe dermatitis can be found in any constituent of footwear, including rubber, adhesives, leather, dyes, metals, and medicaments. The goal of treatment is to identify and minimize contact with the offending allergen(s). The lack of product information released from shoe manufacturers and the continually changing trends in footwear present a challenge in treating this condition. The aim of this study is to review the current literature on allergic contact shoe dermatitis; clinical presentation, allergens, patch testing, and management will be discussed. PubMed and MEDLINE databases were used for the search, with a focus on literature updates from the last 15 years.
Evaluation of contact sensitivity to topical drugs in patients with contact dermatitis
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Bilge Bülbül Şen
2013-03-01
Full Text Available Background and Design: Topical drugs are an important group of contact allergens. The present study aimed to evaluate contact sensitivity to topical drugs in patients with contact dermatitis. Materials and Methods: Between 2003 and 2008, 129 patients were followed up at the Department of Dermatology at Ankara University School of Medicine with clinically suspected contact sensitivity to topical drugs. In this study, the patch test reactions to the European Standard Battery and topical drugs used by the patients and medicament patch test results were evaluated. Results: Positive patch test reaction to one or more allergens was found in 80 (62.0% of 129 patients included in the study. Sixty-one of the 80 patients (61/129, 47.3% had positive patch test reaction to medicaments. Medicament sensitivity was detected in 37.9% (49/129 of subjects. Nitrofurazone was found to be the most common allergen (18.6%. Discussion: The present study showed that topical drugs are a frequent cause of allergic contact dermatitis. Therefore, the probability of contact sensitivity to topical drugs should also be considered in patients with the clinical diagnosis of allergic contact dermatitis and, suspected cases should be evaluated further with patch testing in order to find the responsible allergens.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Trisna Yuliharti Tersinanda
2013-07-01
Full Text Available Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE Allergic contact dermatitis is an immunologic reaction that tends to involve the surrounding skin and may even spread beyond affected sites. This skin disease is one of the more frequent, and costly dermatologic problems. Recent data from United Kingdom and United States suggest that the percentage of occupational contact dermatitis due to allergy may be much higher, thus raising the economic impact of occupational allergic contact dermatitis. There is not enough data about the epidemiology of allergic contact dermatitis in Indonesia, however based on research that include beautician in Denpasar, about 27,6 percent had side effect of cosmetics, which is 25,4 percent of it manifested as allergic contact dermatitis. Diagnosis of allergic contact dermatitis is based on anamnesis, physical examination, patch test, and this disease should be distinguished from other eczematous skin disease. The management is prevention of allergen exposure, symptomatic treatment, and physicochemical barrier /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin-top:0in; mso-para-margin-right:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:10.0pt; mso-para-margin-left:0in; line-height:115%; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;}
[Biometric bases: basic concepts of probability calculation].
Dinya, E
1998-04-26
The author gives or outline of the basic concepts of probability theory. The bases of the event algebra, definition of the probability, the classical probability model and the random variable are presented.
Probability for Weather and Climate
Smith, L. A.
2013-12-01
Over the last 60 years, the availability of large-scale electronic computers has stimulated rapid and significant advances both in meteorology and in our understanding of the Earth System as a whole. The speed of these advances was due, in large part, to the sudden ability to explore nonlinear systems of equations. The computer allows the meteorologist to carry a physical argument to its conclusion; the time scales of weather phenomena then allow the refinement of physical theory, numerical approximation or both in light of new observations. Prior to this extension, as Charney noted, the practicing meteorologist could ignore the results of theory with good conscience. Today, neither the practicing meteorologist nor the practicing climatologist can do so, but to what extent, and in what contexts, should they place the insights of theory above quantitative simulation? And in what circumstances can one confidently estimate the probability of events in the world from model-based simulations? Despite solid advances of theory and insight made possible by the computer, the fidelity of our models of climate differs in kind from the fidelity of models of weather. While all prediction is extrapolation in time, weather resembles interpolation in state space, while climate change is fundamentally an extrapolation. The trichotomy of simulation, observation and theory which has proven essential in meteorology will remain incomplete in climate science. Operationally, the roles of probability, indeed the kinds of probability one has access too, are different in operational weather forecasting and climate services. Significant barriers to forming probability forecasts (which can be used rationally as probabilities) are identified. Monte Carlo ensembles can explore sensitivity, diversity, and (sometimes) the likely impact of measurement uncertainty and structural model error. The aims of different ensemble strategies, and fundamental differences in ensemble design to support of
Contact parameter identification for vibrational response variability prediction
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Creixell Mediante, Ester; Brunskog, Jonas; Jensen, Jakob Søndergaard
2018-01-01
industry, where the vibrational behavior of the structures within the hearing frequency range is critical for the performance of the devices. A procedure to localize the most probable contact areas and determine the most sensitive contact points with respect to variations in the modes of vibration......Variability in the dynamic response of assembled structures can arise due to variations in the contact conditions between the parts that conform them. Contact conditions are difficult to model accurately due to randomness in physical properties such as contact surface, load distribution...... or geometric details. Those properties can vary for a given structure due to the assembly and disassembly process, and also across nominally equal items that are produced in series. This work focuses on modeling the contact between small light-weight plastic pieces such as those used in the hearing aid...
Financial Integration and Asset Returns
P Martin; H Rey
2000-01-01
The paper investigates the impact of financial integration on asset return, risk diversification and breadth of financial markets. We analyse a three-country macroeconomic model in which (i) the number of financial assets is endogenous; (ii) assets are imperfect substitutes; (iii) cross-border asset trade entails some transaction costs; (iv) the investment technology is indivisible. In such an environment, lower transaction costs between two financial markets translate to higher demand for as...
Returning to work after disability.
Quinn, P Roger
2002-06-01
After a workplace injury or disability, there is a period of hardship and adjustment for the injured party as well as all stakeholders in the workers' compensation process. Ultimately, however, return to work is considered. The author reviews this often challenging exercise from the Canadian perspective and stresses the need for timely intervention, honest communication, the coordination of information and resources--and the need for flexibility. A case study on low back pain is included.
Onnela, Jukka-Pekka; Töyli, Juuso; Kaski, Kimmo
2009-02-01
Tick size is an important aspect of the micro-structural level organization of financial markets. It is the smallest institutionally allowed price increment, has a direct bearing on the bid-ask spread, influences the strategy of trading order placement in electronic markets, affects the price formation mechanism, and appears to be related to the long-term memory of volatility clustering. In this paper we investigate the impact of tick size on stock returns. We start with a simple simulation to demonstrate how continuous returns become distorted after confining the price to a discrete grid governed by the tick size. We then move on to a novel experimental set-up that combines decimalization pilot programs and cross-listed stocks in New York and Toronto. This allows us to observe a set of stocks traded simultaneously under two different ticks while holding all security-specific characteristics fixed. We then study the normality of the return distributions and carry out fits to the chosen distribution models. Our empirical findings are somewhat mixed and in some cases appear to challenge the simulation results.
Probability, Statistics, and Stochastic Processes
Olofsson, Peter
2012-01-01
This book provides a unique and balanced approach to probability, statistics, and stochastic processes. Readers gain a solid foundation in all three fields that serves as a stepping stone to more advanced investigations into each area. The Second Edition features new coverage of analysis of variance (ANOVA), consistency and efficiency of estimators, asymptotic theory for maximum likelihood estimators, empirical distribution function and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, general linear models, multiple comparisons, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), Brownian motion, martingales, and
Probability, statistics, and computational science.
Beerenwinkel, Niko; Siebourg, Juliane
2012-01-01
In this chapter, we review basic concepts from probability theory and computational statistics that are fundamental to evolutionary genomics. We provide a very basic introduction to statistical modeling and discuss general principles, including maximum likelihood and Bayesian inference. Markov chains, hidden Markov models, and Bayesian network models are introduced in more detail as they occur frequently and in many variations in genomics applications. In particular, we discuss efficient inference algorithms and methods for learning these models from partially observed data. Several simple examples are given throughout the text, some of which point to models that are discussed in more detail in subsequent chapters.
Sensitivity analysis using probability bounding
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ferson, Scott; Troy Tucker, W.
2006-01-01
Probability bounds analysis (PBA) provides analysts a convenient means to characterize the neighborhood of possible results that would be obtained from plausible alternative inputs in probabilistic calculations. We show the relationship between PBA and the methods of interval analysis and probabilistic uncertainty analysis from which it is jointly derived, and indicate how the method can be used to assess the quality of probabilistic models such as those developed in Monte Carlo simulations for risk analyses. We also illustrate how a sensitivity analysis can be conducted within a PBA by pinching inputs to precise distributions or real values
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Full Text Available ... Tips & Prevention News Ask an Ophthalmologist Patient Stories Español Eye Health / News Halloween Hazard: The Hidden Dangers ... Decorative Contact Lenses Without a Prescription Leer en Español: Peligros asociados con los lentes de contacto de ...
Full Text Available ... prescription. There is no such thing as a "one size fits all" contact lens. Lenses that are not properly fitted may scratch the eye or cause blood vessels to grow into the cornea. Even if you have perfect vision, you need to get an eye exam and a prescription ...
Full Text Available ... MD, professor of ophthalmology at Case Western Reserve University in Cleveland. "This is far from the truth." ... use of colored contact lenses , from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). Are the colored lenses you are considering buying approved by the ... Service For Advertisers For Media Ophthalmology Job Center © American ...
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Full Text Available ... Español Eye Health / News Halloween Hazard: The Hidden Dangers of Buying Decorative Contact Lenses Without a Prescription ... be purchased over-the-counter or on the Internet," says Thomas Steinemann, MD, professor of ophthalmology at ...
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Paulsen, Evy; Andersen, Klaus E
2016-01-01
Lettuce (Lactuca sativa L.) and its varieties are important vegetable crops worldwide. They are also well-known, rarely reported, causes of contact allergy. As lettuce allergens and extracts are not commercially available, the allergy may be underdiagnosed. The aims of this article are to present...... person who is occupationally exposed to lettuce for longer periods, especially atopics, amateur gardeners, and persons keeping lettuce-eating pets, is potentially at risk of developing lettuce contact allergy.......Lettuce (Lactuca sativa L.) and its varieties are important vegetable crops worldwide. They are also well-known, rarely reported, causes of contact allergy. As lettuce allergens and extracts are not commercially available, the allergy may be underdiagnosed. The aims of this article are to present...... new data on lettuce contact allergy and review the literature. Lettuce is weakly allergenic, and occupational cases are mainly reported. Using aimed patch testing in Compositae-allergic patients, two recent Danish studies showed prevalence rates of positive lettuce reactions of 11% and 22...
W. Van den Akker Th. (W.); I.D. Roesyanto-Mahadi (I.); A.W. van Toorenenbergen (Albert); Th. van Joost (Theo)
1990-01-01
textabstractA group of 103 patients suspected of contact allergy was tested with the European standard series, wood tars and spices; paprika, cinnamon, laurel, celery seed, nutmeg, curry, black pepper, cloves, while pepper, coriander, cacao and garlic. 32 patients (Group I) were selected on the
Fermilab Education Office - Contacts
Search The Office of Education and Public Outreach: Contacts All telephone numbers require area code Presentations for Presenters 840-3094 Office of Education and Public Outreach Spencer Pasero spasero@fnal.gov Education Office 840-3076 Fermilab Friends for Science Education General Questions Susan Dahl sdahl@fnal.gov
Full Text Available ... A medical degree and many more years of training, for starters. A recent article from U.S. News and World Report explains what ophthalmologists are and how they can help you look after ... Contact Us About the Academy Jobs at the Academy Financial Relationships with Industry Medical ...
Mathematics Connection: Contact
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Principal Contact. Dr. Kofi Mereku Executive Editor Department of Mathematics Education, UCE Mathematical Association of Ghana, C/o Department of Mathematics Education University College of Education of Winneba P. O. Box 25, Winneba, Ghana Phone: +233244961318. Email: dkmereku@uew.edu.gh ...
Contact activation: a revision.
Schmaier, A H
1997-07-01
In conclusion, a revised view of the contact system has been presented. This system has little to do with the initiation of hemostasis. Like lupus anticoagulants, deficiencies of contact proteins give prolonged APTTs but may be risk factors for thrombosis. BK from kininogens is a potent modulator of vascular biology inducing vasodilation, tissue plasminogen activator release, and prostacyclin liberation. Kininogens, themselves, are selective inhibitors of alpha-thrombin-induced platelet activation preventing alpha-thrombin from cleaving the cloned thrombin receptor after arginine41. Kininogens' alpha-thrombin inhibitory activity exists in intact kininogens, BK, and all of BK's breakdown products. HK also is the pivotal protein for contact protein assembly on endothelium. It is the receptor for prekallikrein which when bound to HK becomes activated to kallikrein by an endothelial cell enzyme system independent of activated forms of plasma factor XII. Prekallikrein activation on endothelial cells results in kinetically favorable single chain urokinase and plasminogen activation. Thus the "physiologic, negatively charged surface" for contact system activation is really the assembly of these proteins on cell membranes and activation by membrane-associated enzymes.
Full Text Available ... wear any kind of contact lens. In Butler's case, the lenses caused an infection and left her with a corneal ... A recent article from U.S. News and World Report explains what ophthalmologists are and how they can ...
Language Contact and Bilingualism
Appel, René; Muysken, Pieter
2006-01-01
What happens - sociologically, linguistically, educationally, politically - when more than one language is in regular use in a community? How do speakers handle these languages simultaneously, and what influence does this language contact have on the languages involved? Although most people in the
Full Text Available ... Health / News Halloween Hazard: The Hidden Dangers of Buying Decorative Contact Lenses Without a Prescription Leer en Español: Peligros asociados con los lentes de contacto de color Sep. 26, 2013 It started as an impulsive buy from a souvenir shop, but 10 hours ...
Pizza makers' contact dermatitis.
Lembo, Serena; Lembo, Claudio; Patruno, Cataldo; Balato, Anna; Balato, Nicola; Ayala, Fabio
2014-01-01
Contact eczema to foods, spices, and food additives can occur in occupational and nonoccupational settings in those who grow, handle, prepare, or cook food. Pizza is one of the most eaten foods in every continent, and pizza making is a common work in many countries. We aimed to evaluate the occurrence and the causes of contact dermatitis in pizza makers in Naples. We performed an observational study in 45 pizza makers: all the enrolled subjects had to answer a questionnaire designed to detect personal history of respiratory or cutaneous allergy, atopy; work characteristics and timing were also investigated. Every subject attended the dermatology clinic for a complete skin examination, and when needed, patients were patch tested using the Italian baseline series of haptens integrated with an arbitrary pizza makers series. Our results reported that 13.3% of the enrolled pizza makers (6/45) presented hand eczema, and that 8.9% (4/45) were affected by occupational allergic contact dermatitis. Diallyl disulfide and ammonium persulfate were the responsible substances. Performing patch tests in pizza makers and food handlers affected by hand contact dermatitis is useful. We propose a specific series of haptens for this wide working category.
Pinotti, Roberto
The problem of mass behavior after man's future contacts with other intelligences in the universe is not only a challenge for social scientists and political leaders all over the world, but also a cultural time bomb as well. In fact, since the impact of CETI (Contact with Extraterrestrial Intelligence) on human civilization, with its different cultures, might cause a serious socio-anthropological shock, a common and predetermined worldwide strategy is necessary in releasing the news after the contact, in order to keep possible manifestations of fear, panic and hysteria under control. An analysis of past studies in this field and of parallel historical situations as analogs suggests a definite "authority crisis" in the public as a direct consequence of an unexpected release of the news, involving a devastating "chain reaction" process (from both the psychological and sociological viewpoints) of anomie and maybe the collapse of today's society. The only way to prevent all this is to prepare the world's public opinion concerning contact before releasing the news, and to develop a long-term strategy through the combined efforts of scientists, political leaders, intelligence agencies and the mass media, in order to create the cultural conditions in which a confrontation with ETI won't affect mankind in a traumatic way. Definite roles and tasks in this multi-level model are suggested.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Niebe, Sarah Maria
. A contact point determination method, based on boolean surface maps, is developed to handle collisions between tetrahedral meshes. The novel nonsmooth nonlinear conjugate gradient (NNCG) method is presented. The NNCG method is comparable in terms of accuracy to the state-of-the-art method, projected Gauss...
Full Text Available ... can be purchased over-the-counter or on the Internet," says Thomas Steinemann, MD, professor of ophthalmology at ... ask for a prescription. There is no such thing as a "one size fits all" contact lens. Lenses that are not properly fitted may scratch the eye or cause blood vessels to grow into ...
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Held, E; Johansen, J D; Agner, T
1999-01-01
In a 2-year period, 1527 patients with contact dermatitis were investigated in the patch-test clinic. In 531 patients, allergy to cosmetics was suspected from the history and they were tested with their own cosmetic products. 40 (7.5%) (of the 531 patients) had 1 or more positive reactions, 82 (15...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Principal Contact. Professor Daniel Mireku-Gyimah Editor-in-Chief University of Mines & Technology Ghana Mining Journal University of Mines & Technology P. O. BOX 237 Tarkwa Ghana Phone: +233 362 20280/20324. Fax: +233 362 20306. Email: dm.gyimah@umat.edu.gh ...
Yang, C.; Persson, B. N. J.
2007-01-01
We report a molecular dynamics study of the contact between a rigid solid with a randomly rough surface and an elastic block with a flat surface. We study the contact area and the interfacial separation from small contact (low load) to full contact (high load). For small load the contact area varies linearly with the load and the interfacial separation depends logarithmically on the load. For high load the contact area approaches to the nominal contact area (i.e., complete contact), and the i...
Lectures on probability and statistics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Yost, G.P.
1984-09-01
These notes are based on a set of statistics lectures delivered at Imperial College to the first-year postgraduate students in High Energy Physics. They are designed for the professional experimental scientist. We begin with the fundamentals of probability theory, in which one makes statements about the set of possible outcomes of an experiment, based upon a complete a priori understanding of the experiment. For example, in a roll of a set of (fair) dice, one understands a priori that any given side of each die is equally likely to turn up. From that, we can calculate the probability of any specified outcome. We finish with the inverse problem, statistics. Here, one begins with a set of actual data (e.g., the outcomes of a number of rolls of the dice), and attempts to make inferences about the state of nature which gave those data (e.g., the likelihood of seeing any given side of any given die turn up). This is a much more difficult problem, of course, and one's solutions often turn out to be unsatisfactory in one respect or another
We'll meet again: revealing distributional and temporal patterns of social contact.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Thorsten Pachur
Full Text Available What are the dynamics and regularities underlying social contact, and how can contact with the people in one's social network be predicted? In order to characterize distributional and temporal patterns underlying contact probability, we asked 40 participants to keep a diary of their social contacts for 100 consecutive days. Using a memory framework previously used to study environmental regularities, we predicted that the probability of future contact would follow in systematic ways from the frequency, recency, and spacing of previous contact. The distribution of contact probability across the members of a person's social network was highly skewed, following an exponential function. As predicted, it emerged that future contact scaled linearly with frequency of past contact, proportionally to a power function with recency of past contact, and differentially according to the spacing of past contact. These relations emerged across different contact media and irrespective of whether the participant initiated or received contact. We discuss how the identification of these regularities might inspire more realistic analyses of behavior in social networks (e.g., attitude formation, cooperation.
Focusing on Contact Lens Safety
... their practices. Decorative contacts (also called “costume,” colored,” “fashion,” or “plano” contacts). The FDA has often warned ... Lenses Decorative Contact Lenses Hydrogen Peroxide Solution Related Consumer Updates 'Colored' and Decorative Contact Lenses: A Prescription ...
Electrical contacts principles and applications
Slade, Paul G
2013-01-01
Covering the theory, application, and testing of contact materials, Electrical Contacts: Principles and Applications, Second Edition introduces a thorough discussion on making electric contact and contact interface conduction; presents a general outline of, and measurement techniques for, important corrosion mechanisms; considers the results of contact wear when plug-in connections are made and broken; investigates the effect of thin noble metal plating on electronic connections; and relates crucial considerations for making high- and low-power contact joints. It examines contact use in switch
[News on occupational contact dermatitis].
Crépy, Marie-Noëlle; Bensefa-Colas, Lynda
2014-03-01
Contact dermatitis--irritant contact dermatitis, allergic contact dermatitis and protein contact dermatitis--are the most common occupational skin diseases, most often localized to the hands. Contact urticaria is rarer The main occupational irritants are wet work, detergents and disinfectants, cutting oils, and solvents. The main occupational allergens are rubber additives, metals (chromium, nickel, cobalt), plastics (epoxy resins, acrylic), biocides and plants. Diagnosis is based on clinical examination, medical history and allergy testing. For a number of irritating or sensitizing agents, irritant or allergic dermatitis can be notified as occupational diseases. The two main prevention measures are reducing skin contact with irritants and complete avoidance of skin contact with offending allergens.
Return to work after cancer and pre-cancer job dissatisfaction
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Heinesen, Eskil; Kolodziejczyk, Christophe; Ladenburg, Jacob
2017-01-01
We investigate the association between pre-cancer job dissatisfaction and return-to-work probability 3 years after a cancer diagnosis. We use a Danish data set combining administrative data and a survey to breast and colon cancer survivors. We find that the return-to-work probability has a negative...... correlation with pre-cancer job dissatisfaction with mental demands (where the correlation is driven by the high-educated) and with physical demands and the superior (where the correlation is driven by the low-educated). Educational gradients in the probability of returning to work after cancer...... are not significantly affected by controlling for pre-cancer job dissatisfaction and pre-cancer ability to work....
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Herrmann, K.
1994-03-01
In this work the properties of josephson step contacts are investigated. After a short introduction into Josephson step contacts the structure, properties and the Josphson contacts of YBa 2 Cu 3 O 7-x high-T c superconductors is presented. The fabrication of HTSC step contacts and the microstructure is discussed. The electric properties of these contacts are measured together with the Josephson emission and the magnetic field dependence. The temperature dependence of the stationary transport properties is given. (WL)
Probability theory a comprehensive course
Klenke, Achim
2014-01-01
This second edition of the popular textbook contains a comprehensive course in modern probability theory. Overall, probabilistic concepts play an increasingly important role in mathematics, physics, biology, financial engineering and computer science. They help us in understanding magnetism, amorphous media, genetic diversity and the perils of random developments at financial markets, and they guide us in constructing more efficient algorithms. To address these concepts, the title covers a wide variety of topics, many of which are not usually found in introductory textbooks, such as: • limit theorems for sums of random variables • martingales • percolation • Markov chains and electrical networks • construction of stochastic processes • Poisson point process and infinite divisibility • large deviation principles and statistical physics • Brownian motion • stochastic integral and stochastic differential equations. The theory is developed rigorously and in a self-contained way, with the c...
Returning to sports after a back injury
... medlineplus.gov/ency/patientinstructions/000518.htm Returning to sports after a back injury To use the sharing ... Back pain - returning to sports Which Type of Sport is Best? In deciding when and if to ...
Glaese, John R.; Tobbe, Patrick A.
1986-01-01
The Space Station Mechanism Test Bed consists of a hydraulically driven, computer controlled six degree of freedom (DOF) motion system with which docking, berthing, and other mechanisms can be evaluated. Measured contact forces and moments are provided to the simulation host computer to enable representation of orbital contact dynamics. This report describes the development of a generalized math model which represents the relative motion between two rigid orbiting vehicles. The model allows motion in six DOF for each body, with no vehicle size limitation. The rotational and translational equations of motion are derived. The method used to transform the forces and moments from the sensor location to the vehicles' centers of mass is also explained. Two math models of docking mechanisms, a simple translational spring and the Remote Manipulator System end effector, are presented along with simulation results. The translational spring model is used in an attempt to verify the simulation with compensated hardware in the loop results.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Fransen, Marloes; Overgaard, Line E K; Johansen, Jeanne D
2018-01-01
BACKGROUND: Lanolin has been tested as lanolin alcohols (30% pet.) in baseline patch test series since 1969, and this has shown clinically relevant allergic contact dermatitis cases. OBJECTIVES: To investigate the temporal development of lanolin allergy (i.e. positive reaction to lanolin alcohols...... and/or Amerchol™ L-101), and the association between contact allergy to lanolin and patient characteristics from the MOAHLFA index. METHODS: A retrospective observational study of consecutively patch tested dermatitis patients (n = 9577) between 1 January 2004 and 31 December 2015 with lanolin...... alcohols 30% pet. and Amerchol™ L-101 50% pet. was performed. RESULTS: The prevalence of lanolin allergy increased from 0.45% in 2004 to 1.81% in 2015. In age-adjusted and sex-adjusted analyses, weak, significant associations were found between atopic dermatitis and lanolin and lanolin alcohols allergy...
Kotovsky, Jack [Oakland, CA
2012-02-07
A contact stress sensor includes one or more MEMS fabricated sensor elements, where each sensor element of includes a thin non-recessed portion, a recessed portion and a pressure sensitive element adjacent to the recessed portion. An electric circuit is connected to the pressure sensitive element. The circuit includes a thermal compensator and a pressure signal circuit element configured to provide a signal upon movement of the pressure sensitive element.
Occupational protein contact dermatitis.
Barbaud, Annick; Poreaux, Claire; Penven, Emmanuelle; Waton, Julie
2015-01-01
Occupational contact dermatitis is generally caused by haptens but can also be induced by proteins causing mainly immunological contact urticaria (ICU); chronic hand eczema in the context of protein contact dermatitis (PCD). In a monocentric retrospective study, from our database, only 31 (0.41%) of patients with contact dermatitis had positive skin tests with proteins: 22 had occupational PCD, 3 had non-occupational PCD, 5 occupational ICU and 1 cook had a neutrophilic fixed food eruption (NFFE) due to fish. From these results and analysis of literature, the characteristics of PCD can be summarized as follows. It is a chronic eczematous dermatitis, possibly exacerbated by work, suggestive if associated with inflammatory perionyxix and immediate erythema with pruritis, to be investigated when the patient resumes work after a period of interruption. Prick tests with the suspected protein-containing material are essential, as patch tests have negative results. In case of multisensitisation revealed by prick tests, it is advisable to analyse IgE against recombinant allergens. A history of atopy, found in 56 to 68% of the patients, has to be checked for. Most of the cases are observed among food-handlers but PCD can also be due to non-edible plants, latex, hydrolysed proteins or animal proteins. Occupational exposure to proteins can thus lead to the development of ICU. Reflecting hypersensitivity to very low concentrations of allergens, investigating ICU therefore requires caution and prick tests should be performed with a diluted form of the causative protein-containing product. Causes are food, especially fruit peel, non-edible plants, cosmetic products, latex, animals.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Johansen, Jeanne D
2003-01-01
. This gives a positive patch-test reaction in about 10% of tested patients with eczema, and the most recent estimates show that 1.7-4.1% of the general population are sensitized to ingredients of the fragrance mix. Fragrance allergy occurs predominantly in women with facial or hand eczema. These women...... development to identify contact allergy to new allergens, reflecting the continuous developments and trends in exposure....
Returns to Tenure or Seniority?
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Buhai, Ioan Sebastian; Portela, Miguel; Teulings, Coen
This study documents two empirical regularities, using data for Denmark and Portugal. First, workers who are hired last, are the first to leave the firm (Last In, First Out; LIFO). Second, workers' wages rise with seniority (= a Worker's tenure relative to the tenure of her colleagues). We seek...... at the moment of separation). The LIFO rule provides a stronger bargaining position for senior workers, leading to a return to seniority in wages. Efficiency in hiring requires the workers' .bargaining power to be in line with their share in the cost of specific investment. Then, the LIFO rule is a way...
Excluding joint probabilities from quantum theory
Allahverdyan, Armen E.; Danageozian, Arshag
2018-03-01
Quantum theory does not provide a unique definition for the joint probability of two noncommuting observables, which is the next important question after the Born's probability for a single observable. Instead, various definitions were suggested, e.g., via quasiprobabilities or via hidden-variable theories. After reviewing open issues of the joint probability, we relate it to quantum imprecise probabilities, which are noncontextual and are consistent with all constraints expected from a quantum probability. We study two noncommuting observables in a two-dimensional Hilbert space and show that there is no precise joint probability that applies for any quantum state and is consistent with imprecise probabilities. This contrasts with theorems by Bell and Kochen-Specker that exclude joint probabilities for more than two noncommuting observables, in Hilbert space with dimension larger than two. If measurement contexts are included into the definition, joint probabilities are not excluded anymore, but they are still constrained by imprecise probabilities.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sharma Vinod
2010-01-01
Full Text Available Allergic contact dermatitis (ACD in children, until recently, was considered rare. ACD was considered as a disorder of the adult population and children were thought to be spared due to a lack of exposure to potential allergens and an immature immune system. Prevalence of ACD to even the most common allergens in children, like poison ivy and parthenium, is relatively rare as compared to adults. However, there is now growing evidence of contact sensitization of the pediatric population, and it begins right from early childhood, including 1-week-old neonates. Vaccinations, piercing, topical medicaments and cosmetics in younger patients are potential exposures for sensitization. Nickel is the most common sensitizer in almost all studies pertaining to pediatric contact dermatitis. Other common allergens reported are cobalt, fragrance mix, rubber, lanolin, thiomersol, neomycin, gold, mercapto mix, balsum of Peru and colophony. Different factors like age, sex, atopy, social and cultural practices, habit of parents and caregivers and geographic changes affect the patterns of ACD and their variable clinical presentation. Patch testing should be considered not only in children with lesions of a morphology suggestive of ACD, but in any child with dermatitis that is difficult to control.
Multifactor analysis of multiscaling in volatility return intervals.
Wang, Fengzhong; Yamasaki, Kazuko; Havlin, Shlomo; Stanley, H Eugene
2009-01-01
We study the volatility time series of 1137 most traded stocks in the U.S. stock markets for the two-year period 2001-2002 and analyze their return intervals tau , which are time intervals between volatilities above a given threshold q . We explore the probability density function of tau , P_(q)(tau) , assuming a stretched exponential function, P_(q)(tau) approximately e;(-tau;(gamma)) . We find that the exponent gamma depends on the threshold in the range between q=1 and 6 standard deviations of the volatility. This finding supports the multiscaling nature of the return interval distribution. To better understand the multiscaling origin, we study how gamma depends on four essential factors, capitalization, risk, number of trades, and return. We show that gamma depends on the capitalization, risk, and return but almost does not depend on the number of trades. This suggests that gamma relates to the portfolio selection but not on the market activity. To further characterize the multiscaling of individual stocks, we fit the moments of tau , mu_(m) identical with(tautau);(m);(1m) , in the range of 10portfolio optimization.
Multifactor analysis of multiscaling in volatility return intervals
Wang, Fengzhong; Yamasaki, Kazuko; Havlin, Shlomo; Stanley, H. Eugene
2009-01-01
We study the volatility time series of 1137 most traded stocks in the U.S. stock markets for the two-year period 2001-2002 and analyze their return intervals τ , which are time intervals between volatilities above a given threshold q . We explore the probability density function of τ , Pq(τ) , assuming a stretched exponential function, Pq(τ)˜e-τγ . We find that the exponent γ depends on the threshold in the range between q=1 and 6 standard deviations of the volatility. This finding supports the multiscaling nature of the return interval distribution. To better understand the multiscaling origin, we study how γ depends on four essential factors, capitalization, risk, number of trades, and return. We show that γ depends on the capitalization, risk, and return but almost does not depend on the number of trades. This suggests that γ relates to the portfolio selection but not on the market activity. To further characterize the multiscaling of individual stocks, we fit the moments of τ , μm≡⟨(τ/⟨τ⟩)m⟩1/m , in the range of 10portfolio optimization.
APC senses cell-cell contacts and moves to the nucleus upon their disruption.
Brocardo, M G; Bianchini, M; Radrizzani, M; Reyes, G B; Dugour, A V; Taminelli, G L; Gonzalez Solveyra, C; Santa-Coloma, T A
2001-06-22
The adenomatous polyposis coli (APC) tumor suppressor protein is involved in the Wnt/wingless pathway, modulating beta-catenin activity. We report the development of a highly specific, chemically synthesized oligobody (oligonucleotide-based synthetic antibody), directed against the N-terminal region of APC. Using this reagent, we found that within 16 h of disrupting HT-29 cell-cell contacts by harvesting cells with trypsin/EDTA treatment and replating, APC was translocated from the cytoplasm to the nucleus. Five days after plating the cells, when the cells had returned to their normal confluent phenotype and cell-cell contacts were reestablished, APC returned to the cytoplasm. These results suggest that APC functions as part of a "sensor" system, and responds to the loss of cell-cell contacts by moving to the nucleus, and returning to the cytoplasm when the contacts are fully restored. Copyright 2001 Academic Press.
Probability theory and mathematical statistics for engineers
Pugachev, V S
1984-01-01
Probability Theory and Mathematical Statistics for Engineers focuses on the concepts of probability theory and mathematical statistics for finite-dimensional random variables.The publication first underscores the probabilities of events, random variables, and numerical characteristics of random variables. Discussions focus on canonical expansions of random vectors, second-order moments of random vectors, generalization of the density concept, entropy of a distribution, direct evaluation of probabilities, and conditional probabilities. The text then examines projections of random vector
Introduction to probability theory with contemporary applications
Helms, Lester L
2010-01-01
This introduction to probability theory transforms a highly abstract subject into a series of coherent concepts. Its extensive discussions and clear examples, written in plain language, expose students to the rules and methods of probability. Suitable for an introductory probability course, this volume requires abstract and conceptual thinking skills and a background in calculus.Topics include classical probability, set theory, axioms, probability functions, random and independent random variables, expected values, and covariance and correlations. Additional subjects include stochastic process
Common Factors in International Bond Returns
Driessen, J.J.A.G.; Melenberg, B.; Nijman, T.E.
2000-01-01
In this paper we estimate and interpret the factors that jointly determine bond returns of different maturities in the US, Germany and Japan.We analyze both currency-hedged and unhedged bond returns.For currency-hedged bond returns, we find that five factors explain 96.5% of the variation of bond
Foreign currency returns and systematic risks
Galsband, V.; Nitschka, T.
2015-01-01
We apply an empirical approximation of the intertemporal capital asset pricing model (ICAPM) to show that cross-sectional dispersion in currency returns can be rationalized by differences in currency excess returns' sensitivities to the market return's cash-flow news component. This finding echoes
[Sport injuries in full contact and semi-contact karate].
Greier, K; Riechelmann, H; Ziemska, J
2014-03-01
Karate enjoys great popularity both in professional and recreational sports and can be classified into full, half and low contact styles. The aim of this study was the analysis of sports injuries in Kyokushinkai (full contact) and traditional Karate (semi-contact). In a retrospective study design, 215 active amateur karateka (114 full contact, 101 semi-contact) were interviewed by means of a standardised questionnaire regarding typical sport injuries during the last 36 months. Injuries were categorised into severity grade I (not requiring medical treatment), grade II (single medical treatment), grade III (several outpatient medical treatments) and grade IV (requiring hospitalisation). In total, 217 injuries were reported in detail. 125 injuries (58%) occurred in full contact and 92 (42%) in semi-contact karate. The time related injury rate of full contact karateka was 1.9/1000 h compared to 1.3/1000 h of semi-contact karateka (p injuries were musculoskeletal contusions (33% full contact, 20% semi-contact), followed by articular sprains with 19% and 16%. The lower extremity was affected twice as often in full contact (40%) as in semi-contact (20%) karate. Training injuries were reported by 80% of the full contact and 77% of the semi-contact karateka. Most injuries, both in training and competition, occurred in kumite. 75% of the reported injuries of full contact and 70% of semi-contact karateka were classified as low grade (I or II). The high rate of injuries during training and kumite (sparring) points to specific prevention goals. The emphasis should be put on proprioceptive training and consistent warm-up. In the actual competition the referees play a vital role regarding prevention. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.
Return to work after cancer and pre-cancer job dissatisfaction
Heinesen, Eskil; Kolodziejczyk, Christophe; Ladenburg, Jacob; Andersen, Ingelise; Thielen, Karsten
2017-01-01
We investigate the association between pre-cancer job dissatisfaction and return-to-work probability 3 years after a cancer diagnosis. We use a Danish data set combining administrative data and a survey to breast and colon cancer survivors. We find that the return-to-work probability has a negative correlation with pre-cancer job dissatisfaction with mental demands (where the correlation is driven by the high-educated) and with physical demands and the superior (where the correlation is drive...
Mechanical Contact Experiments and Simulations
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Nielsen, Chris Valentin; Martins, P; Zhang, W.
2011-01-01
Mechanical contact is studied under dynamic development by means of a combined numerical and experimental investigation. The experiments are designed to allow dynamical development of non-planar contact areas with significant expansion in all three directions as the load is increased. Different....... The overall investigation serves for testing and validating the numerical implementation of the mechanical contact, which is one of the main contributions to a system intended for 3D simulation of resistance welding. Correct modelling of contact between parts to be welded, as well as contact with electrodes......, is crucial for satisfactory modelling of the resistance welding process. The resistance heating at the contact interfaces depends on both contact area and pressure, and as the contact areas develop dynamically, the presented tests are relevant for assessing the validity and accuracy of the mechanical contact...
Cytologic diagnosis: expression of probability by clinical pathologists.
Christopher, Mary M; Hotz, Christine S
2004-01-01
Clinical pathologists use descriptive terms or modifiers to express the probability or likelihood of a cytologic diagnosis. Words are imprecise in meaning, however, and may be used and interpreted differently by pathologists and clinicians. The goals of this study were to 1) assess the frequency of use of 18 modifiers, 2) determine the probability of a positive diagnosis implied by the modifiers, 3) identify preferred modifiers for different levels of probability, 4) ascertain the importance of factors that affect expression of diagnostic certainty, and 5) evaluate differences based on gender, employment, and experience. We surveyed 202 clinical pathologists who were board-certified by the American College of Veterinary Pathologists (Clinical Pathology). Surveys were distributed in October 2001 and returned by e-mail, fax, or surface mail over a 2-month period. Results were analyzed by parametric and nonparametric tests. Survey response rate was 47.5% (n = 96) and primarily included clinical pathologists at veterinary schools (n = 58) and diagnostic laboratories (n = 31). Eleven of 18 terms were used "often" or "sometimes" by >/= 50% of respondents. Broad variability was found in the probability assigned to each term, especially those with median values of 75 to 90%. Preferred modifiers for 7 numerical probabilities ranging from 0 to 100% included 68 unique terms; however, a set of 10 terms was used by >/= 50% of respondents. Cellularity and quality of the sample, experience of the pathologist, and implications of the diagnosis were the most important factors affecting the expression of probability. Because of wide discrepancy in the implied likelihood of a diagnosis using words, defined terminology and controlled vocabulary may be useful in improving communication and the quality of data in cytology reporting.
Formation and Evolution of Contact Binaries
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Peter P. Eggleton
2012-06-01
Full Text Available describe a series of processes, including hierarchical fragmentation, gravitational scattering, Kozai cycles within triple systems, tidal friction and magnetic braking, that I believe are responsible for producing the modest but significant fraction of stars that are observed as contact binaries. I also discuss further processes, namely heat transport, mass transport, nuclear evolution, thermal relaxation oscillations, and further magnetic braking with tidal friction, that influence the evolution during contact. The endpoint, for contact, is that the two components merge into a single star, as recently was observed in the remarkable system V1309 Sco. The single star probably throws off some mass and rotates rapidly at first, and then slows by magnetic braking to become a rather inconspicuous but normal dwarf or subgiant. If however the contact binary was part of a triple system originally–as I suggested above was rather likely–then the result could be a widish binary with apparently non-coeval components. There are several such known.
Allergic contact dermatitis to fragrance: a review.
Scheinman, P L
1996-06-01
Allergy to fragrance is the most common cause of cosmetic contact dermatitis and therefore constitutes a significant clinical problem. The widespread use of fragranced materials in skin care and household products is probably the most important reason for the high incidence of fragrance sensitization. This report will summarize the history of fragrance, review how to detect and evaluate fragrance allergy, discuss the problems inherent in patch testing with the fragrance mix and its constituents, describe systemic contact dermatitis from ingestion of certain flavors, and give suggestions for fragrance-sensitive patients. The use of fragrance mix in patch testing has been invaluable in detecting fragrance allergy. Continued investigation into positive patch test responses to fragrance in scented products is essential in helping to identify new fragrance allergens. Additionally, more cooperation is necessary between industry and dermatologists in assisting patients to avoid proven allergens.
An elastic-plastic contact model for line contact structures
Zhu, Haibin; Zhao, Yingtao; He, Zhifeng; Zhang, Ruinan; Ma, Shaopeng
2018-06-01
Although numerical simulation tools are now very powerful, the development of analytical models is very important for the prediction of the mechanical behaviour of line contact structures for deeply understanding contact problems and engineering applications. For the line contact structures widely used in the engineering field, few analytical models are available for predicting the mechanical behaviour when the structures deform plastically, as the classic Hertz's theory would be invalid. Thus, the present study proposed an elastic-plastic model for line contact structures based on the understanding of the yield mechanism. A mathematical expression describing the global relationship between load history and contact width evolution of line contact structures was obtained. The proposed model was verified through an actual line contact test and a corresponding numerical simulation. The results confirmed that this model can be used to accurately predict the elastic-plastic mechanical behaviour of a line contact structure.
K-forbidden transition probabilities
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Saitoh, T.R.; Sletten, G.; Bark, R.A.; Hagemann, G.B.; Herskind, B.; Saitoh-Hashimoto, N.; Tsukuba Univ., Ibaraki
2000-01-01
Reduced hindrance factors of K-forbidden transitions are compiled for nuclei with A∝180 where γ-vibrational states are observed. Correlations between these reduced hindrance factors and Coriolis forces, statistical level mixing and γ-softness have been studied. It is demonstrated that the K-forbidden transition probabilities are related to γ-softness. The decay of the high-K bandheads has been studied by means of the two-state mixing, which would be induced by the γ-softness, with the use of a number of K-forbidden transitions compiled in the present work, where high-K bandheads are depopulated by both E2 and ΔI=1 transitions. The validity of the two-state mixing scheme has been examined by using the proposed identity of the B(M1)/B(E2) ratios of transitions depopulating high-K bandheads and levels of low-K bands. A break down of the identity might indicate that other levels would mediate transitions between high- and low-K states. (orig.)
Direct probability mapping of contaminants
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rautman, C.A.
1993-01-01
Exhaustive characterization of a contaminated site is a physical and practical impossibility. Descriptions of the nature, extent, and level of contamination, as well as decisions regarding proposed remediation activities, must be made in a state of uncertainty based upon limited physical sampling. Geostatistical simulation provides powerful tools for investigating contaminant levels, and in particular, for identifying and using the spatial interrelationships among a set of isolated sample values. This additional information can be used to assess the likelihood of encountering contamination at unsampled locations and to evaluate the risk associated with decisions to remediate or not to remediate specific regions within a site. Past operation of the DOE Feed Materials Production Center has contaminated a site near Fernald, Ohio, with natural uranium. Soil geochemical data have been collected as part of the Uranium-in-Soils Integrated Demonstration Project. These data have been used to construct a number of stochastic images of potential contamination for parcels approximately the size of a selective remediation unit. Each such image accurately reflects the actual measured sample values, and reproduces the univariate statistics and spatial character of the extant data. Post-processing of a large number of these equally likely, statistically similar images produces maps directly showing the probability of exceeding specified levels of contamination. Evaluation of the geostatistical simulations can yield maps representing the expected magnitude of the contamination for various regions and other information that may be important in determining a suitable remediation process or in sizing equipment to accomplish the restoration
SECTORAL RISK AND RETURN FOR COMPANIES IN ROMANIA
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Anis Cecilia
2012-12-01
Full Text Available probability that cash flows or return will vary from expectations. Standard corporate finance theory supposes that a company chooses a capital structure that maximizes company value. A fundamental idea in finance is the relationship between risk and return. The greater the amount of risk that an investor is willing to take on, the greater the potential return. The reason for this is that investors need to be compensated for taking on additional risk. Why put capital at significant risk for a return that is no higher than the return on government bonds? Or expect higher than averages returns from low-risk activities? It is impossible to separate measuring the performance of a company from the risks that the management takes to achieve it.In most aspects of company operations, risk assessment plays a different but equally important, role. It is an integral part of informed decision taking in achieving performance. Risk assessment is involved from the highest level in strategic choices about what activities to undertake, what assets to buy or what markets to serve all the way to detailed operational decisions about whether to accept payment in foreign currencies and the adequacy of safety measures in the workplace. It plays a part whether or not an organization is aware of managing risk and many managers feel that their instinct and judgment are enough â€“ a behavior risk. The danger is that this leaves company risk unplanned and unmanaged. This paper proposes a framework where we realized a study cases: we test if return on assets and return on equity has influence on the risk, both on long and short term. For this purposes, we conduct an empirical research that covers 59 selected companies traded at the Bucharest Stock Exchange within the time period 1999-2010. For this study our results reveal that dynamic global risk can be associated to a low intensity with total assets performance of the companyâ€™s. Investments efficiency and the
Stylized facts in internal rates of return on stock index and its derivative transactions
Pichl, Lukáš; Kaizoji, Taisei; Yamano, Takuya
2007-08-01
Universal features in stock markets and their derivative markets are studied by means of probability distributions in internal rates of return on buy and sell transaction pairs. Unlike the stylized facts in normalized log returns, the probability distributions for such single asset encounters incorporate the time factor by means of the internal rate of return, defined as the continuous compound interest. Resulting stylized facts are shown in the probability distributions derived from the daily series of TOPIX, S & P 500 and FTSE 100 index close values. The application of the above analysis to minute-tick data of NIKKEI 225 and its futures market, respectively, reveals an interesting difference in the behavior of the two probability distributions, in case a threshold on the minimal duration of the long position is imposed. It is therefore suggested that the probability distributions of the internal rates of return could be used for causality mining between the underlying and derivative stock markets. The highly specific discrete spectrum, which results from noise trader strategies as opposed to the smooth distributions observed for fundamentalist strategies in single encounter transactions may be useful in deducing the type of investment strategy from trading revenues of small portfolio investors.
Psychophysics of the probability weighting function
Takahashi, Taiki
2011-03-01
A probability weighting function w(p) for an objective probability p in decision under risk plays a pivotal role in Kahneman-Tversky prospect theory. Although recent studies in econophysics and neuroeconomics widely utilized probability weighting functions, psychophysical foundations of the probability weighting functions have been unknown. Notably, a behavioral economist Prelec (1998) [4] axiomatically derived the probability weighting function w(p)=exp(-() (01e)=1e,w(1)=1), which has extensively been studied in behavioral neuroeconomics. The present study utilizes psychophysical theory to derive Prelec's probability weighting function from psychophysical laws of perceived waiting time in probabilistic choices. Also, the relations between the parameters in the probability weighting function and the probability discounting function in behavioral psychology are derived. Future directions in the application of the psychophysical theory of the probability weighting function in econophysics and neuroeconomics are discussed.
Stock Returns and Risk: Evidence from Quantile
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Thomas C. Chiang
2012-12-01
Full Text Available This paper employs weighted least squares to examine the risk-return relation by applying high-frequency data from four major stock indexes in the US market and finds some evidence in favor of a positive relation between the mean of the excess returns and expected risk. However, by using quantile regressions, we find that the risk-return relation moves from negative to positive as the returns’ quantile increases. A positive risk-return relation is valid only in the upper quantiles. The evidence also suggests that intraday skewness plays a dominant role in explaining the variations of excess returns.
Murphy, Sean
2010-01-01
The boomerang analysis, together with its offspring the amplified boomerang analysis and the rectangle analysis, are techniques that are widely used in the analysis of block ciphers. We give realistic examples which demonstrate that the boomerang analysis can commonly give probability values that are highly inaccurate. Thus any complexity estimates for the security of a block cipher based on the boomerang or rectangle analysis must be viewed extremely sceptically.
Employee experience of workplace supervisor contact and support during long-term sickness absence.
Buys, Nicholas J; Selander, John; Sun, Jing
2017-12-07
Workplace support is an important factor in promoting successful return to work. The purpose of this article is to examine relationships between supervisor contact, perceived workplace support and demographic variables among employees on long-term sickness absence. Data were collected from 204 public employees at a municipality in Sweden who had been on long term sickness absence (60 days or more) using a 23 question survey instrument that collected information on demographic variables, supervisor contact and perceived workplace support. Most injured employees (97%) reported having contact with their supervisors during their sickness absence, with a majority (56%) reporting high levels of support, including early (58.6%) and multiple (70.7%) contacts. Most were pleased with amount of contact (68.9%) and the majority had discussed workplace accommodations (68.1%). Employees who self-initiated contact, felt the amount of contact was appropriate, had a personal meeting with their supervisors and discussed workplace adjustments reported experiencing higher levels of support from supervisors. Employees on long-term sickness absence appreciate contact from their supervisors and this is associated with perceived workplace support. However, the amount and employee experience of this contact is important. It needs to be perceived by employees as supportive, which includes a focus on strategies (e.g., work adjustment) to facilitate a return to work. Supervisor training is required in this area to support the return to work process. Implications for Rehabilitation Contact and support from workplace supervisors is important to workers on long-term sickness absence. Employees appreciate frequent contact from supervisors during long-terms sickness absence. Employees appreciate a personal meeting with supervisors and the opportunity to discuss issues related to return to work such as work adjustment. Employers should provide training to supervisors on how to communicate and
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Robinson, L.F.; Cahalan, M.J.
1980-01-01
A process is described for contacting substantially immiscible phases to transfer material from one phase to another, which comprises passing the phases through a contactor, while causing portions of at least one phase to be repeatedly passed through at least one other phase. One phase in the contactor is gaseous, and another liquid. A further phase can be liquid or solid The process may be used for extracting impurities from china clay, or extracting uranium values from ore with oxygen gas acting to oxidise the uranium. (author)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Krejci, M.; Pilat, M.; Stulik, P.
1977-01-01
Equipment was developed measuring the heavy water level in the TR-0 reactor core within an accuracy of several hundredths of a millimeter in a range of around 3.5 m and at a temperature of up to 90 degC. The equipment uses a vibrating needle contact as a high sensitivity level gauge and a servomechanical system with a motion screw carrying the gauge for monitoring and measuring the level in the desired range. The advantage of the unique level gauge consists in that that the transducer converts the measured level position to an electric signal, ie., pulse width, with high sensitivity and without hysteresis. (Kr)
Madhusudana, Chakravarti V
2013-01-01
The work covers bothÂ theoretical and practical aspects of thermal contact conductance. The theoretical discussionÂ focuses onÂ heat transfer through spots, joints, and surfaces, as well as the role of interstitial materials (both planned and inadvertent). The practical discussion includes formulae and data that can be used in designing heat-transfer equipment for a variety of joints, including special geometries and configurations. All of the material has been updated to reflect the latest advances in the field.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hashmi, N.; Van Der Houven Van Oordt, A.J.
1975-01-01
An ion source in which an apertured or foraminous electrode having a multiplicity of openings is spaced from one or more active surfaces of an ionisation electrode, the active surfaces comprising a material capable of ionising by contact ionization a substance to be ionized supplied during operation to the active surface or surfaces comprises means for producing during operation a magnetic field which enables a stable plasma to be formed in the space between the active surface or surfaces and the apertured electrode, the field strength of the magnetic field being preferably in the range between 2 and 8 kilogauss. (U.S.)
2011-04-22
... Specified Tax Return Preparers Required To File Individual Income Tax Returns Using Magnetic Media... Register on Wednesday, March 30, 2011 (76 FR 17521) providing guidance to specified tax return preparers who prepare and file individual income tax returns using magnetic media pursuant to section 6011(e)(3...
THE BLACK HOLE FORMATION PROBABILITY
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Clausen, Drew; Piro, Anthony L.; Ott, Christian D., E-mail: dclausen@tapir.caltech.edu [TAPIR, Walter Burke Institute for Theoretical Physics, California Institute of Technology, Mailcode 350-17, Pasadena, CA 91125 (United States)
2015-02-01
A longstanding question in stellar evolution is which massive stars produce black holes (BHs) rather than neutron stars (NSs) upon death. It has been common practice to assume that a given zero-age main sequence (ZAMS) mass star (and perhaps a given metallicity) simply produces either an NS or a BH, but this fails to account for a myriad of other variables that may effect this outcome, such as spin, binarity, or even stochastic differences in the stellar structure near core collapse. We argue that instead a probabilistic description of NS versus BH formation may be better suited to account for the current uncertainties in understanding how massive stars die. We present an initial exploration of the probability that a star will make a BH as a function of its ZAMS mass, P {sub BH}(M {sub ZAMS}). Although we find that it is difficult to derive a unique P {sub BH}(M {sub ZAMS}) using current measurements of both the BH mass distribution and the degree of chemical enrichment by massive stars, we demonstrate how P {sub BH}(M {sub ZAMS}) changes with these various observational and theoretical uncertainties. We anticipate that future studies of Galactic BHs and theoretical studies of core collapse will refine P {sub BH}(M {sub ZAMS}) and argue that this framework is an important new step toward better understanding BH formation. A probabilistic description of BH formation will be useful as input for future population synthesis studies that are interested in the formation of X-ray binaries, the nature and event rate of gravitational wave sources, and answering questions about chemical enrichment.
THE BLACK HOLE FORMATION PROBABILITY
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Clausen, Drew; Piro, Anthony L.; Ott, Christian D.
2015-01-01
A longstanding question in stellar evolution is which massive stars produce black holes (BHs) rather than neutron stars (NSs) upon death. It has been common practice to assume that a given zero-age main sequence (ZAMS) mass star (and perhaps a given metallicity) simply produces either an NS or a BH, but this fails to account for a myriad of other variables that may effect this outcome, such as spin, binarity, or even stochastic differences in the stellar structure near core collapse. We argue that instead a probabilistic description of NS versus BH formation may be better suited to account for the current uncertainties in understanding how massive stars die. We present an initial exploration of the probability that a star will make a BH as a function of its ZAMS mass, P BH (M ZAMS ). Although we find that it is difficult to derive a unique P BH (M ZAMS ) using current measurements of both the BH mass distribution and the degree of chemical enrichment by massive stars, we demonstrate how P BH (M ZAMS ) changes with these various observational and theoretical uncertainties. We anticipate that future studies of Galactic BHs and theoretical studies of core collapse will refine P BH (M ZAMS ) and argue that this framework is an important new step toward better understanding BH formation. A probabilistic description of BH formation will be useful as input for future population synthesis studies that are interested in the formation of X-ray binaries, the nature and event rate of gravitational wave sources, and answering questions about chemical enrichment
The Black Hole Formation Probability
Clausen, Drew; Piro, Anthony L.; Ott, Christian D.
2015-02-01
A longstanding question in stellar evolution is which massive stars produce black holes (BHs) rather than neutron stars (NSs) upon death. It has been common practice to assume that a given zero-age main sequence (ZAMS) mass star (and perhaps a given metallicity) simply produces either an NS or a BH, but this fails to account for a myriad of other variables that may effect this outcome, such as spin, binarity, or even stochastic differences in the stellar structure near core collapse. We argue that instead a probabilistic description of NS versus BH formation may be better suited to account for the current uncertainties in understanding how massive stars die. We present an initial exploration of the probability that a star will make a BH as a function of its ZAMS mass, P BH(M ZAMS). Although we find that it is difficult to derive a unique P BH(M ZAMS) using current measurements of both the BH mass distribution and the degree of chemical enrichment by massive stars, we demonstrate how P BH(M ZAMS) changes with these various observational and theoretical uncertainties. We anticipate that future studies of Galactic BHs and theoretical studies of core collapse will refine P BH(M ZAMS) and argue that this framework is an important new step toward better understanding BH formation. A probabilistic description of BH formation will be useful as input for future population synthesis studies that are interested in the formation of X-ray binaries, the nature and event rate of gravitational wave sources, and answering questions about chemical enrichment.
Loiasis in a Japanese Traveler Returning from Central Africa
Kobayashi, Tetsuro; Hayakawa, Kayoko; Mawatari, Momoko; Itoh, Makoto; Akao, Nobuaki; Yotsu, Rie R.; Sugihara, Jun; Takeshita, Nozomi; Kutsuna, Satoshi; Fujiya, Yoshihiro; Kanagawa, Shuzo; Ohmagari, Norio; Kato, Yasuyuki
2015-01-01
We encountered a probable case of loiasis in a returned traveler from Central Africa. A 52-year-old Japanese woman presented to our hospital complaining of discomfort in her eyes and skin. She reported having frequently visited Central Africa over many years and having been extensively exposed to the rainforest climate and ecosystem. Although no microfilariae were found in her blood, there was an elevated level of IgG antibodies against the crude antigens of Brugia pahangi, which have cross-reactivity with Loa loa. She was treated with albendazole for 21 days, after which the antigen-specific IgG level decreased and no relapse occurred. PMID:26161033
Optimal contact definition for reconstruction of Contact Maps
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Stehr Henning
2010-05-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Contact maps have been extensively used as a simplified representation of protein structures. They capture most important features of a protein's fold, being preferred by a number of researchers for the description and study of protein structures. Inspired by the model's simplicity many groups have dedicated a considerable amount of effort towards contact prediction as a proxy for protein structure prediction. However a contact map's biological interest is subject to the availability of reliable methods for the 3-dimensional reconstruction of the structure. Results We use an implementation of the well-known distance geometry protocol to build realistic protein 3-dimensional models from contact maps, performing an extensive exploration of many of the parameters involved in the reconstruction process. We try to address the questions: a to what accuracy does a contact map represent its corresponding 3D structure, b what is the best contact map representation with regard to reconstructability and c what is the effect of partial or inaccurate contact information on the 3D structure recovery. Our results suggest that contact maps derived from the application of a distance cutoff of 9 to 11Å around the Cβ atoms constitute the most accurate representation of the 3D structure. The reconstruction process does not provide a single solution to the problem but rather an ensemble of conformations that are within 2Å RMSD of the crystal structure and with lower values for the pairwise average ensemble RMSD. Interestingly it is still possible to recover a structure with partial contact information, although wrong contacts can lead to dramatic loss in reconstruction fidelity. Conclusions Thus contact maps represent a valid approximation to the structures with an accuracy comparable to that of experimental methods. The optimal contact definitions constitute key guidelines for methods based on contact maps such as structure prediction through
Allergic contact dermatitis from octylisothiazolinone
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Mose, Anja Pahlow; Frost, Simon; Ohlund, Ulf
2013-01-01
Octylisothiazolinone is a biocide that has been reported as a moderate, but rare contact allergen.......Octylisothiazolinone is a biocide that has been reported as a moderate, but rare contact allergen....
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Johansen, Jeanne D
2003-01-01
typically have a history of rash to a fine fragrance or scented deodorants. Chemical analysis has revealed that well known allergens from the fragrance mix are present in 15-100% of cosmetic products, including deodorants and fine fragrances, and most often in combinations of three to four allergens...... carboxaldehyde, which on its own gives responses in 1-3% of tested patients. The focus in recent years on the ingredients of the fragrance mix will probably result in the fragrance industry changing the composition of perfumes, and thus make the current diagnostic test less useful. New diagnostic tests are under...
Foundations of the theory of probability
Kolmogorov, AN
2018-01-01
This famous little book remains a foundational text for the understanding of probability theory, important both to students beginning a serious study of probability and to historians of modern mathematics. 1956 second edition.
The Probability Distribution for a Biased Spinner
Foster, Colin
2012-01-01
This article advocates biased spinners as an engaging context for statistics students. Calculating the probability of a biased spinner landing on a particular side makes valuable connections between probability and other areas of mathematics. (Contains 2 figures and 1 table.)
Conditional Probability Modulates Visual Search Efficiency
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Bryan eCort
2013-10-01
Full Text Available We investigated the effects of probability on visual search. Previous work has shown that people can utilize spatial and sequential probability information to improve target detection. We hypothesized that performance improvements from probability information would extend to the efficiency of visual search. Our task was a simple visual search in which the target was always present among a field of distractors, and could take one of two colors. The absolute probability of the target being either color was 0.5; however, the conditional probability – the likelihood of a particular color given a particular combination of two cues – varied from 0.1 to 0.9. We found that participants searched more efficiently for high conditional probability targets and less efficiently for low conditional probability targets, but only when they were explicitly informed of the probability relationship between cues and target color.
Analytic Neutrino Oscillation Probabilities in Matter: Revisited
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Parke, Stephen J. [Fermilab; Denton, Peter B. [Copenhagen U.; Minakata, Hisakazu [Madrid, IFT
2018-01-02
We summarize our recent paper on neutrino oscillation probabilities in matter, explaining the importance, relevance and need for simple, highly accurate approximations to the neutrino oscillation probabilities in matter.
Void probability scaling in hadron nucleus interactions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ghosh, Dipak; Deb, Argha; Bhattacharyya, Swarnapratim; Ghosh, Jayita; Bandyopadhyay, Prabhat; Das, Rupa; Mukherjee, Sima
2002-01-01
Heygi while investigating with the rapidity gap probability (that measures the chance of finding no particle in the pseudo-rapidity interval Δη) found that a scaling behavior in the rapidity gap probability has a close correspondence with the scaling of a void probability in galaxy correlation study. The main aim in this paper is to study the scaling behavior of the rapidity gap probability
Identifying Key Drivers of Return Reversal with Dynamical Bayesian Factor Graph.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Shuai Zhao
Full Text Available In the stock market, return reversal occurs when investors sell overbought stocks and buy oversold stocks, reversing the stocks' price trends. In this paper, we develop a new method to identify key drivers of return reversal by incorporating a comprehensive set of factors derived from different economic theories into one unified dynamical Bayesian factor graph. We then use the model to depict factor relationships and their dynamics, from which we make some interesting discoveries about the mechanism behind return reversals. Through extensive experiments on the US stock market, we conclude that among the various factors, the liquidity factors consistently emerge as key drivers of return reversal, which is in support of the theory of liquidity effect. Specifically, we find that stocks with high turnover rates or high Amihud illiquidity measures have a greater probability of experiencing return reversals. Apart from the consistent drivers, we find other drivers of return reversal that generally change from year to year, and they serve as important characteristics for evaluating the trends of stock returns. Besides, we also identify some seldom discussed yet enlightening inter-factor relationships, one of which shows that stocks in Finance and Insurance industry are more likely to have high Amihud illiquidity measures in comparison with those in other industries. These conclusions are robust for return reversals under different thresholds.
Lehman, Ronald A; Kang, Daniel G; Lenke, Lawrence G; Sucato, Daniel J; Bevevino, Adam J
2015-05-01
There are no guidelines for when surgeons should allow patients to return to sports and athletic activities after spinal fusion for adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS). Current recommendations are based on anecdotal reports and a survey performed more than a decade ago in the era of first/second-generation posterior implants. To identify current recommendations for return to sports and athletic activities after surgery for AIS. Questionnaire-based survey. Adolescent idiopathic scoliosis after corrective surgery. Type and time to return to sports. A survey was administered to members of the Spinal Deformity Study Group. The survey consisted of surgeon demographic information, six clinical case scenarios, three different construct types (hooks, pedicle screws, hybrid), and questions regarding the influence of lowest instrumented vertebra (LIV) and postoperative physical therapy. Twenty-three surgeons completed the survey, and respondents were all experienced expert deformity surgeons. Pedicle screw instrumentation allows earlier return to noncontact and contact sports, with most patients allowed to return to running by 3 months, both noncontact and contact sports by 6 months, and collision sports by 12 months postoperatively. For all construct types, approximately 20% never allow return to collision sports, whereas all surgeons allow eventual return to contact and noncontact sports regardless of construct type. In addition to construct type, we found progressively distal LIV resulted in more surgeons never allowing return to collision sports, with 12% for selective thoracic fusion to T12/L1 versus 33% for posterior spinal fusion to L4. Most respondents also did not recommend formal postoperative physical therapy (78%). Of all surgeons surveyed, there was only one reported instrumentation failure/pullout without neurologic deficit after a patient went snowboarding 2 weeks postoperatively. Modern posterior instrumentation allows surgeons to recommend earlier return
Pre-Service Teachers' Conceptions of Probability
Odafe, Victor U.
2011-01-01
Probability knowledge and skills are needed in science and in making daily decisions that are sometimes made under uncertain conditions. Hence, there is the need to ensure that the pre-service teachers of our children are well prepared to teach probability. Pre-service teachers' conceptions of probability are identified, and ways of helping them…
Using Playing Cards to Differentiate Probability Interpretations
López Puga, Jorge
2014-01-01
The aprioristic (classical, naïve and symmetric) and frequentist interpretations of probability are commonly known. Bayesian or subjective interpretation of probability is receiving increasing attention. This paper describes an activity to help students differentiate between the three types of probability interpretations.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
An Goossens
2016-02-01
Full Text Available This article presents trends in the frequency of cosmetics as causal factors of allergic contact dermatitis during a 26-year period in 14,911 patients patch-tested between 1990 and 2014, and discusses the cosmetic allergens identified during the last six years (2010–2015 in 603 patients out of 3105 tested. The data were retrieved from, and evaluated with, a patient database developed in-house. The results show the increasing importance of cosmetic allergies, up to 25% of the patients tested during the last five-year period. As expected, fragrance materials, preservatives, and hair dyes were the most frequent culprits, but a great variety of other allergenic ingredients were involved as well. This underlines the need of additional and extensive patch testing with the patient’s products used and their ingredients.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Søsted, Heidi; Rastogi, Suresh Chandra; Andersen, Klaus Ejner
2004-01-01
Colouring of hair can cause severe allergic contact dermatitis. The most frequently reported hair dye allergens are p-phenylenediamine (PPD) and toluene-2,5-diamine, which are included in, respectively, the patch test standard series and the hairdressers series. The aim of the present study...... was to identify dye precursors and couplers in hair dyeing products causing clinical hair dye dermatitis and to compare the data with the contents of these compounds in a randomly selected set of similar products. The patient material comprised 9 cases of characteristic clinical allergic hair dye reaction, where...... exposure history and patch testing had identified a specific hair dye product as the cause of the reaction. The 9 products used by the patients were subjected to chemical analysis. 8 hair dye products contained toluene-2,5-diamine (0.18 to 0.98%). PPD (0.27%) was found in 1 product, and m-aminophenol (0...
Mechanoluminescent Contact Type Sensor
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
A. K. Yefremov
2017-01-01
Full Text Available Mechanoluminescent sensing elements convert mechanical stress into optical radiation. Advantages of such sensors are the ability to generate an optical signal, solid-state, simple structure, and resistance to electromagnetic interference. Mechanoluminescent sensor implementations can possess the concentrated and distributed sensitivity, thereby allowing us to detect the field of mechanical stresses distributed across the area and in volume. Most modern semiconductor photo-detectors can detect mechanoluminescent radiation, so there are no difficulties to provide its detection when designing the mechanoluminescent sensing devices. Mechanoluminescent substances have especial sensitivity to shock loads, and this effect can be used to create a fuse the structure of which includes a target contact type sensor with a photosensitive actuator. The paper briefly describes the theoretical basics of mechanoluminiscence: a light signal emerges from the interaction of crystalline phosphor luminescence centers with electrically charged dislocations, moving due to the deformation of the crystal. A mathematical model of the mechanoluminescent conversion is represented as a functional interaction between parameters of the mechanical shock excitation and the sensor light emission. Examples of computing the optical mechanoluminescent output signal depending on the duration and peak level of impulse load are given. It is shown that the luminous flux, generated by mechanoluminescent sensing element when there is an ammunition-target collision causes the current emerging in photo-detector (photodiode that is sufficient for a typical actuator of the fuse train to operate. The potential possibility to create a contact target type sensor based on the light-sensitive mechanoluminescent sensor was proved by the calculation and simulation results.
Dependent Human Error Probability Assessment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Simic, Z.; Mikulicic, V.; Vukovic, I.
2006-01-01
This paper presents an assessment of the dependence between dynamic operator actions modeled in a Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) PRA and estimate the associated impact on Core damage frequency (CDF). This assessment was done improve HEP dependencies implementation inside existing PRA. All of the dynamic operator actions modeled in the NPP PRA are included in this assessment. Determining the level of HEP dependence and the associated influence on CDF are the major steps of this assessment. A decision on how to apply the results, i.e., should permanent HEP model changes be made, is based on the resulting relative CDF increase. Some CDF increase was selected as a threshold based on the NPP base CDF value and acceptance guidelines from the Regulatory Guide 1.174. HEP dependence resulting in a CDF increase of > 5E-07 would be considered potential candidates for specific incorporation into the baseline model. The approach used to judge the level of dependence between operator actions is based on dependency level categories and conditional probabilities developed in the Handbook of Human Reliability Analysis with Emphasis on Nuclear Power Plant Applications NUREG/CR-1278. To simplify the process, NUREG/CR-1278 identifies five levels of dependence: ZD (zero dependence), LD (low dependence), MD (moderate dependence), HD (high dependence), and CD (complete dependence). NUREG/CR-1278 also identifies several qualitative factors that could be involved in determining the level of dependence. Based on the NUREG/CR-1278 information, Time, Function, and Spatial attributes were judged to be the most important considerations when determining the level of dependence between operator actions within an accident sequence. These attributes were used to develop qualitative criteria (rules) that were used to judge the level of dependence (CD, HD, MD, LD, ZD) between the operator actions. After the level of dependence between the various HEPs is judged, quantitative values associated with the
Reducing contact resistance in graphene devices through contact area patterning.
Smith, Joshua T; Franklin, Aaron D; Farmer, Damon B; Dimitrakopoulos, Christos D
2013-04-23
Performance of graphene electronics is limited by contact resistance associated with the metal-graphene (M-G) interface, where unique transport challenges arise as carriers are injected from a 3D metal into a 2D-graphene sheet. In this work, enhanced carrier injection is experimentally achieved in graphene devices by forming cuts in the graphene within the contact regions. These cuts are oriented normal to the channel and facilitate bonding between the contact metal and carbon atoms at the graphene cut edges, reproducibly maximizing "edge-contacted" injection. Despite the reduction in M-G contact area caused by these cuts, we find that a 32% reduction in contact resistance results in Cu-contacted, two-terminal devices, while a 22% reduction is achieved for top-gated graphene transistors with Pd contacts as compared to conventionally fabricated devices. The crucial role of contact annealing to facilitate this improvement is also elucidated. This simple approach provides a reliable and reproducible means of lowering contact resistance in graphene devices to bolster performance. Importantly, this enhancement requires no additional processing steps.
Contact angle and local wetting at contact line.
Li, Ri; Shan, Yanguang
2012-11-06
This theoretical study was motivated by recent experiments and theoretical work that had suggested the dependence of the static contact angle on the local wetting at the triple-phase contact line. We revisit this topic because the static contact angle as a local wetting parameter is still not widely understood and clearly known. To further clarify the relationship of the static contact angle with wetting, two approaches are applied to derive a general equation for the static contact angle of a droplet on a composite surface composed of heterogeneous components. A global approach based on the free surface energy of a thermodynamic system containing the droplet and solid surface shows the static contact angle as a function of local surface chemistry and local wetting state at the contact line. A local approach, in which only local forces acting on the contact line are considered, results in the same equation. The fact that the local approach agrees with the global approach further demonstrates the static contact angle as a local wetting parameter. Additionally, the study also suggests that the wetting described by the Wenzel and Cassie equations is also the local wetting of the contact line rather than the global wetting of the droplet.
Equilibrium contact angle or the most-stable contact angle?
Montes Ruiz-Cabello, F J; Rodríguez-Valverde, M A; Cabrerizo-Vílchez, M A
2014-04-01
It is well-established that the equilibrium contact angle in a thermodynamic framework is an "unattainable" contact angle. Instead, the most-stable contact angle obtained from mechanical stimuli of the system is indeed experimentally accessible. Monitoring the susceptibility of a sessile drop to a mechanical stimulus enables to identify the most stable drop configuration within the practical range of contact angle hysteresis. Two different stimuli may be used with sessile drops: mechanical vibration and tilting. The most stable drop against vibration should reveal the changeless contact angle but against the gravity force, it should reveal the highest resistance to slide down. After the corresponding mechanical stimulus, once the excited drop configuration is examined, the focus will be on the contact angle of the initial drop configuration. This methodology needs to map significantly the static drop configurations with different stable contact angles. The most-stable contact angle, together with the advancing and receding contact angles, completes the description of physically realizable configurations of a solid-liquid system. Since the most-stable contact angle is energetically significant, it may be used in the Wenzel, Cassie or Cassie-Baxter equations accordingly or for the surface energy evaluation. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Contact and Non-contact Measurements of Grinding Pins
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Magdziak Marek
2015-01-01
Full Text Available The paper presents the results of contact and non-contact measurements of external profiles of selected grinding pins. The measurements were conducted in order to choose the appropriate measuring technique in the case of the considered measurement task. In the case of contact measurements the coordinate measuring machine ACCURA II was applied. The used coordinate measuring machine was equipped with the contact scanning probe VAST XT and the Calypso inspection software. Contact coordinate measurements were performed by using of different measurement strategies. The applied strategies included different scanning velocities and distances between measured points. Non-contact measurements were conducted by means of the tool presetter produced by the Mahr company. On the basis of gained results the guidelines concerning measurements of grinding pins were formulated. The measurements of analyzed grinding pins performed by means of the non-contact measuring system are characterized by higher reproducibility than the contact measurements. The low reproducibility of contact measurements may be connected with the inaccuracy of the selected coordinate measuring machine and the measuring probe, the measurement parameters and environmental conditions in the laboratory where the coordinate measuring machine is located. Moreover, the paper presents the possible application of results of conducted investigations. The results of non-contact measurements can be used in the simulation studies of grinding processes. The simulations may reduce the costs of machining processes.
Fundamentals of applied probability and random processes
Ibe, Oliver
2014-01-01
The long-awaited revision of Fundamentals of Applied Probability and Random Processes expands on the central components that made the first edition a classic. The title is based on the premise that engineers use probability as a modeling tool, and that probability can be applied to the solution of engineering problems. Engineers and students studying probability and random processes also need to analyze data, and thus need some knowledge of statistics. This book is designed to provide students with a thorough grounding in probability and stochastic processes, demonstrate their applicability t
Probability of Failure in Random Vibration
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Nielsen, Søren R.K.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard
1988-01-01
Close approximations to the first-passage probability of failure in random vibration can be obtained by integral equation methods. A simple relation exists between the first-passage probability density function and the distribution function for the time interval spent below a barrier before out......-crossing. An integral equation for the probability density function of the time interval is formulated, and adequate approximations for the kernel are suggested. The kernel approximation results in approximate solutions for the probability density function of the time interval and thus for the first-passage probability...
An Objective Theory of Probability (Routledge Revivals)
Gillies, Donald
2012-01-01
This reissue of D. A. Gillies highly influential work, first published in 1973, is a philosophical theory of probability which seeks to develop von Mises' views on the subject. In agreement with von Mises, the author regards probability theory as a mathematical science like mechanics or electrodynamics, and probability as an objective, measurable concept like force, mass or charge. On the other hand, Dr Gillies rejects von Mises' definition of probability in terms of limiting frequency and claims that probability should be taken as a primitive or undefined term in accordance with modern axioma
Paraconsistent Probabilities: Consistency, Contradictions and Bayes’ Theorem
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Juliana Bueno-Soler
2016-09-01
Full Text Available This paper represents the first steps towards constructing a paraconsistent theory of probability based on the Logics of Formal Inconsistency (LFIs. We show that LFIs encode very naturally an extension of the notion of probability able to express sophisticated probabilistic reasoning under contradictions employing appropriate notions of conditional probability and paraconsistent updating, via a version of Bayes’ theorem for conditionalization. We argue that the dissimilarity between the notions of inconsistency and contradiction, one of the pillars of LFIs, plays a central role in our extended notion of probability. Some critical historical and conceptual points about probability theory are also reviewed.
Stock returns and foreign investment in Brazil
Reis, Luciana; Meurer, Roberto; Da Silva, Sergio
2008-01-01
We examine the relationship between stock returns and foreign investment in Brazil, and find that the inflows of foreign investment boosted the returns from 1995 to 2005. There was a strong contemporaneous correlation, although not Granger-causality. Foreign investment along with the exchange rate, the influence of the world stock markets, and country risk can explain 73 percent of the changes that occurred in the stock returns over the period. We also find that positive feedback trading play...
Maximizing ROI (return on information)
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
McDonald, B.
2000-05-01
The role and importance of managing information are discussed, underscoring the importance by quoting from the report of the International Data Corporation, according to which Fortune 500 companies lost $ 12 billion in 1999 due to inefficiencies resulting from intellectual re-work, substandard performance , and inability to find knowledge resources. The report predicts that this figure will rise to $ 31.5 billion by 2003. Key impediments to implementing knowledge management systems are identified as : the cost and human resources requirement of deployment; inflexibility of historical systems to adapt to change; and the difficulty of achieving corporate acceptance of inflexible software products that require changes in 'normal' ways of doing business. The author recommends the use of model, document and rule-independent systems with a document centered interface (DCI), employing rapid application development (RAD) and object technologies and visual model development, which eliminate these problems, making it possible for companies to maximize their return on information (ROI), and achieve substantial savings in implementation costs.
The Tail Exponent for Stock Returns in Bursa Malaysia for 2003-2008
Rusli, N. H.; Gopir, G.; Usang, M. D.
2010-07-01
A developed discipline of econophysics that has been introduced is exhibiting the application of mathematical tools that are usually applied to the physical models for the study of financial models. In this study, an analysis of the time series behavior of several blue chip and penny stock companies in Main Market of Bursa Malaysia has been performed. Generally, the basic quantity being used is the relative price changes or is called the stock price returns, contains daily-sampled data from the beginning of 2003 until the end of 2008, containing 1555 trading days recorded. The aim of this paper is to investigate the tail exponent in tails of the distribution for blue chip stocks and penny stocks financial returns in six years period. By using a standard regression method, it is found that the distribution performed double scaling on the log-log plot of the cumulative probability of the normalized returns. Thus we calculate α for a small scale return as well as large scale return. Based on the result obtained, it is found that the power-law behavior for the probability density functions of the stock price absolute returns P(z)˜z-α with values lying inside and outside the Lévy stable regime with values α>2. All the results were discussed in detail.
Hospital Readmission among Older Adults Who Return Home with Unmet Need for ADL Disability
DePalma, Glen; Xu, Huiping; Covinsky, Kenneth E.; Craig, Bruce A.; Stallard, Eric; Thomas, Joseph, III.; Sands, Laura P.
2013-01-01
Purpose: This study determined whether returning to the community from a recent hospitalization with unmet activities of daily living (ADL) need was associated with probability of readmission. Methods: A total of 584 respondents to the 1994, 1999, and/or 2004 National Long-Term Care Surveys (NLTCS) who were hospitalized within 90 days prior to the…
Muscular Sarcocystosis in travelers returning from Tioman Island, Malaysia — 2011
In October 2011, the GeoSentinel global surveillance system for travel-related morbidity detected an unusual cluster of illnesses among travelers returning from Tioman Island, Malaysia. Complete information was received for 17 of 32 (53%) patients reported to GeoSentinel; 9 probable and 1 confirmed ...
Case management interviews and the return to work of disabled employees
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Høgelund, Jan; Holm, Anders
In response to an increasing number of sickness and disability beneficiaries, many countries have launched policies that emphasize the role of case management. This study measures the effect of case-management interview (CMI) on long-term sick-listed employees’ probability of returning to work...
Risk-return of Belgian SRI funds
Van Liedekerke, Luc; De Moor, Lieven; Vanwalleghem, Dieter
2007-01-01
We analyse the risk-return profile of Belgian SRI funds versus conventional investment funds. We apply a four-factor conditional Carhart model to establish whether there are significant differences in risk-return profile between an SRI portfolio and a conventional portfolio and test for learning effects in SRI funds. We show that there is no difference in risk-return profile between SRI and conventional funds. If return is not the problem, then what is it that limits the development of an SRI...
Money growth and aggregate stock returns
Böing, Tobias; Stadtmann, Georg
2016-01-01
We empirically evaluate the predictive power of money growth measured by M2 for stock returns of the S&P 500 index. We use monthly US data and predict multiperiod returns over 1, 3, and 5 years with long-horizon regressions. In-sample regressions show that money growth is useful for predicting returns. Higher recent money growth has a significantly negative effect on subsequent returns of the S&P 500. An out-of-sample analysis shows that a simple model with money growth as a single predictor ...
The returns and risks of investment portfolio in stock market crashes
Li, Jiang-Cheng; Long, Chao; Chen, Xiao-Dan
2015-06-01
The returns and risks of investment portfolio in stock market crashes are investigated by considering a theoretical model, based on a modified Heston model with a cubic nonlinearity, proposed by Spagnolo and Valenti. Through numerically simulating probability density function of returns and the mean escape time of the model, the results indicate that: (i) the maximum stability of returns is associated with the maximum dispersion of investment portfolio and an optimal stop-loss position; (ii) the maximum risks are related with a worst dispersion of investment portfolio and the risks of investment portfolio are enhanced by increasing stop-loss position. In addition, the good agreements between the theoretical result and real market data are found in the behaviors of the probability density function and the mean escape time.
Contextualizing Intergroup Contact: Do Political Party Cues Enhance Contact Effects?
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Sønderskov, Kim Mannemar; Thomsen, Jens Peter Frølund
2015-01-01
This article examines intergroup contact effects in different political contexts. We expand on previous efforts of social psychologists by incorporating the messages of political parties as a contextual trigger of group membership awareness in contact situations. We argue that the focus among...... political parties on us-them categorizations heightens the awareness of group memberships. This focus in turn enhances the positive intergroup contact effect by stimulating majority members to perceive contacted persons as prototypical outgroup members. A multilevel analysis of 22 countries and almost 37......,000 individuals confirms that the ability of intergroup contact to reduce antiforeigner sentiment increases when political parties focus intensively on immigration issues and cultural differences. Specifically, both workplace contact and interethnic friendship become more effective in reducing antiforeigner...
Quaternionic contact Einstein structures and the quaternionic contact Yamabe problem
Ivanov, Stefan; Vassilev, Dimiter
2014-01-01
A partial solution of the quaternionic contact Yamabe problem on the quaternionic sphere is given. It is shown that the torsion of the Biquard connection vanishes exactly when the trace-free part of the horizontal Ricci tensor of the Biquard connection is zero and this occurs precisely on 3-Sasakian manifolds. All conformal transformations sending the standard flat torsion-free quaternionic contact structure on the quaternionic Heisenberg group to a quaternionic contact structure with vanishing torsion of the Biquard connection are explicitly described. A "3-Hamiltonian form" of infinitesimal conformal automorphisms of quaternionic contact structures is presented.
Aiello, Christina M.; Nussear, Kenneth E.; Esque, Todd C.; Emblidge, Patrick G.; Sah, Pratha; Bansal, Shweta; Hudson, Peter J.
2016-01-01
Summary Most directly transmitted infections require some form of close contact between infectious and susceptible hosts to spread. Often disease models assume contacts are equal and use mean field estimates of transmission probability for all interactions with infectious hosts.
How are flood risk estimates affected by the choice of return-periods?
Ward, P. J.; de Moel, H.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.
2011-12-01
Flood management is more and more adopting a risk based approach, whereby flood risk is the product of the probability and consequences of flooding. One of the most common approaches in flood risk assessment is to estimate the damage that would occur for floods of several exceedance probabilities (or return periods), to plot these on an exceedance probability-loss curve (risk curve) and to estimate risk as the area under the curve. However, there is little insight into how the selection of the return-periods (which ones and how many) used to calculate risk actually affects the final risk calculation. To gain such insights, we developed and validated an inundation model capable of rapidly simulating inundation extent and depth, and dynamically coupled this to an existing damage model. The method was applied to a section of the River Meuse in the southeast of the Netherlands. Firstly, we estimated risk based on a risk curve using yearly return periods from 2 to 10 000 yr (€ 34 million p.a.). We found that the overall risk is greatly affected by the number of return periods used to construct the risk curve, with over-estimations of annual risk between 33% and 100% when only three return periods are used. In addition, binary assumptions on dike failure can have a large effect (a factor two difference) on risk estimates. Also, the minimum and maximum return period considered in the curve affects the risk estimate considerably. The results suggest that more research is needed to develop relatively simple inundation models that can be used to produce large numbers of inundation maps, complementary to more complex 2-D-3-D hydrodynamic models. It also suggests that research into flood risk could benefit by paying more attention to the damage caused by relatively high probability floods.
Dekker, P W; Kanngiesser, H; Robert, Y C
1996-05-01
This paper presents a tonometer built into a contactlens, which allows to measure the eye-pressure and to perform ophthalmoscopy at the same time. Artificially induced changes of the eye-pressure and their influence on the visible fundus can now be checked simultaneously. The contactlens-tonometer (CGT) also is able to record continuously the pulse-curve, which can indicate any circulatory problem. So, the device is expected to give us additional diagnostic criteria of early glaucoma. Each ophthalmologyst in the field will be able to perform with this device a oculodynamometry in an easy way. By this it is possible to estimate the pressure-tolerance of the optic disk from glaucoma-patients. There have been taken some measurements on enucleated human eyes, comparing our device with a Statham-transducer in the vitreous. We found a good correlation. In a second step, we made measurements (65) on healthy volunteers, comparing the device with Perkins-Tonometry. We found a correlation (R = 0.58). The error of the measurements was about +/- 3 mm Hg. Considering both, the deviation of the Perkins-Tonometer with which our results were compared, and the fact of a good correlation (R = 0.999) in the study with the enucleated human eyes, we found that the contact-lens-tonometer measures the intraocular pressure exactly. In future studies, we want to analyze the dynamic component of the measurements.
Contact sport and osteoarthritis.
LENUS (Irish Health Repository)
Molloy, Michael G
2011-04-01
Osteoarthritis (OA) is the most common joint disease in the world and the single largest cause of disability for those over 18 years. It affects more than twice as many people as does cardiac disease, and increases in incidence and prevalence with age. Animal and human studies have shown no evidence of increased risk of hip or knee OA with moderate exercise and in the absence of traumatic injury, sporting activity has a protective effect. One age-matched case control study found recreational runners who ran 12-14 miles per week for up to 40 years had no increase in radiological or symptomatic hip or knee OA. However, higher rates of hip OA occur in contact sports than in age-matched controls, with the highest rate in professional players. Soccer players with torn anterior cruciate ligaments (ACL) are more likely to develop knee OA than those with intact ACL. Early ACL repair reduces the risk of knee OA, but does not prevent it. Established injury prevention programmes have been refined to prevent injuries such as ACL rupture.
Maximizing your return on people.
Bassi, Laurie; McMurrer, Daniel
2007-03-01
Though most traditional HR performance metrics don't predict organizational performance, alternatives simply have not existed--until now. During the past ten years, researchers Laurie Bassi and Daniel McMurrer have worked to develop a system that allows executives to assess human capital management (HCM) and to use those metrics both to predict organizational performance and to guide organizations' investments in people. The new framework is based on a core set of HCM drivers that fall into five major categories: leadership practices, employee engagement, knowledge accessibility, workforce optimization, and organizational learning capacity. By employing rigorously designed surveys to score a company on the range of HCM practices across the five categories, it's possible to benchmark organizational HCM capabilities, identify HCM strengths and weaknesses, and link improvements or back-sliding in specific HCM practices with improvements or shortcomings in organizational performance. The process requires determining a "maturity" score for each practice, based on a scale of 1 (low) to 5 (high). Over time, evolving maturity scores from multiple surveys can reveal progress in each of the HCM practices and help a company decide where to focus improvement efforts that will have a direct impact on performance. The authors draw from their work with American Standard, South Carolina's Beaufort County School District, and a bevy of financial firms to show how improving HCM scores led to increased sales, safety, academic test scores, and stock returns. Bassi and McMurrer urge HR departments to move beyond the usual metrics and begin using HCM measurement tools to gauge how well people are managed and developed throughout the organization. In this new role, according to the authors, HR can take on strategic responsibility and ensure that superior human capital management becomes central to the organization's culture.
The returns and risks of investment portfolio in a financial market
Li, Jiang-Cheng; Mei, Dong-Cheng
2014-07-01
The returns and risks of investment portfolio in a financial system was investigated by constructing a theoretical model based on the Heston model. After the theoretical model and analysis of portfolio were calculated and analyzed, we find the following: (i) The statistical properties (i.e., the probability distribution, the variance and loss rate of equity portfolio return) between simulation results of the theoretical model and the real financial data obtained from Dow Jones Industrial Average are in good agreement; (ii) The maximum dispersion of the investment portfolio is associated with the maximum stability of the equity portfolio return and minimal investment risks; (iii) An increase of the investment period and a worst investment period are associated with a decrease of stability of the equity portfolio return and a maximum investment risk, respectively.
Probability concepts in quality risk management.
Claycamp, H Gregg
2012-01-01
Essentially any concept of risk is built on fundamental concepts of chance, likelihood, or probability. Although risk is generally a probability of loss of something of value, given that a risk-generating event will occur or has occurred, it is ironic that the quality risk management literature and guidelines on quality risk management tools are relatively silent on the meaning and uses of "probability." The probability concept is typically applied by risk managers as a combination of frequency-based calculation and a "degree of belief" meaning of probability. Probability as a concept that is crucial for understanding and managing risk is discussed through examples from the most general, scenario-defining and ranking tools that use probability implicitly to more specific probabilistic tools in risk management. A rich history of probability in risk management applied to other fields suggests that high-quality risk management decisions benefit from the implementation of more thoughtful probability concepts in both risk modeling and risk management. Essentially any concept of risk is built on fundamental concepts of chance, likelihood, or probability. Although "risk" generally describes a probability of loss of something of value, given that a risk-generating event will occur or has occurred, it is ironic that the quality risk management literature and guidelines on quality risk management methodologies and respective tools focus on managing severity but are relatively silent on the in-depth meaning and uses of "probability." Pharmaceutical manufacturers are expanding their use of quality risk management to identify and manage risks to the patient that might occur in phases of the pharmaceutical life cycle from drug development to manufacture, marketing to product discontinuation. A probability concept is typically applied by risk managers as a combination of data-based measures of probability and a subjective "degree of belief" meaning of probability. Probability as
The relationship between operating cash flow per share and portfolio default probability
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mohammad Khodaei Valahzaghard
2014-03-01
Full Text Available One of the primary duties of the depositary banks is to protect themselves against any possibility of bankruptcy. This requires the identification and measurement of risks, including default risk, which is important given the nature of the activities of banks. This paper presents an empirical investigation to study the relationship between default probability and some financial figures including operating cash flow, liabilities and return of equities. The proposed study of this paper uses historical data of twenty-two firms listed on Tehran Stock Exchange over the period 2008-2012. Default probability as the dependent variable is measured by the method developed by Moody’s KMV Company. The study uses linear regression model to examine the relationship between default probability and some independent variables. The results of the present study suggest that there were some reverse relationship between operating cash flow per share, return on equities and default probability. In addition, there was a direct relationship between log facilities and default probability. However, there was not any relationship between net sales and default probability.
The importance of contact quality
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
van Bakel, Marian; Gerritsen, Marinel; van Oudenhoven, Jan Pieter
Establishing contact between expatriates and a local host has been found to reap benefits with regard to Interaction Adjustment, Host National Social Support, Open-mindedness, and Social Initiative. This longitudinal study examines the role of the quality of contact for these four aspects....... Expatriates in the Netherlands were randomly divided into an experimental group (n = 33) of which 21 developed high-quality contact with their host, and a control group (n = 32) without host. The results show that contact quality plays an important role and suggest that the higher the quality of the contact......, the more benefit the expatriate experienced. Moreover, expatriates with low-quality contact did not experience a detrimental effect....
Return-to-Work Program for Injured Workers: Factors of Successful Return to Employment.
Awang, Halimah; Shahabudin, Sharifah Muhairah; Mansor, Norma
2016-11-01
This study examined the factors of successful return to employment among participants in the return to work program (RTW) following work-related injury. Data were obtained from the Social Security Organization database containing 9850 injured workers who underwent RTW in 2010 to 2013. About 65% had successfully returned to employment. Significant factors of successful return include gender, employer interest, motivation, age, intervention duration, and type of injury. Male and motivated employees were more likely to return to employment compared with female and unmotivated employees, respectively. Participants from interested employers were 23.22 times more likely to return to work than those from uninterested employers, whereas participants whose intervention period exceeded 5 months were 41% less likely to return to work compared with those whose intervention period was within 3 months. Appropriate strategy and enhanced collaboration between the stakeholders would improve the proportion of successful return to employment. © 2016 APJPH.
An Efficient Approach for Mars Sample Return Using Emerging Commercial Capabilities.
Gonzales, Andrew A; Stoker, Carol R
2016-06-01
Vehicle performs a Trans Earth Injection burn. Once near Earth, the Earth Return Vehicle performs Earth and lunar swing-bys and is placed into a Lunar Trailing Orbit - an Earth orbit, at lunar distance. A retrieval mission then performs a rendezvous with the Earth Return Vehicle, retrieves the sample container, and breaks the chain of contact with Mars by transferring the sample into a sterile and secure container. With the sample contained, the retrieving spacecraft makes a controlled Earth re-entry preventing any unintended release of Martian materials into the Earth's biosphere. The mission can start in any one of three Earth to Mars launch opportunities, beginning in 2022.
Transition probability spaces in loop quantum gravity
Guo, Xiao-Kan
2018-03-01
We study the (generalized) transition probability spaces, in the sense of Mielnik and Cantoni, for spacetime quantum states in loop quantum gravity. First, we show that loop quantum gravity admits the structures of transition probability spaces. This is exemplified by first checking such structures in covariant quantum mechanics and then identifying the transition probability spaces in spin foam models via a simplified version of general boundary formulation. The transition probability space thus defined gives a simple way to reconstruct the discrete analog of the Hilbert space of the canonical theory and the relevant quantum logical structures. Second, we show that the transition probability space and in particular the spin foam model are 2-categories. Then we discuss how to realize in spin foam models two proposals by Crane about the mathematical structures of quantum gravity, namely, the quantum topos and causal sites. We conclude that transition probability spaces provide us with an alternative framework to understand various foundational questions of loop quantum gravity.
Towards a Categorical Account of Conditional Probability
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Robert Furber
2015-11-01
Full Text Available This paper presents a categorical account of conditional probability, covering both the classical and the quantum case. Classical conditional probabilities are expressed as a certain "triangle-fill-in" condition, connecting marginal and joint probabilities, in the Kleisli category of the distribution monad. The conditional probabilities are induced by a map together with a predicate (the condition. The latter is a predicate in the logic of effect modules on this Kleisli category. This same approach can be transferred to the category of C*-algebras (with positive unital maps, whose predicate logic is also expressed in terms of effect modules. Conditional probabilities can again be expressed via a triangle-fill-in property. In the literature, there are several proposals for what quantum conditional probability should be, and also there are extra difficulties not present in the classical case. At this stage, we only describe quantum systems with classical parametrization.
UT Biomedical Informatics Lab (BMIL) probability wheel
Huang, Sheng-Cheng; Lee, Sara; Wang, Allen; Cantor, Scott B.; Sun, Clement; Fan, Kaili; Reece, Gregory P.; Kim, Min Soon; Markey, Mia K.
A probability wheel app is intended to facilitate communication between two people, an "investigator" and a "participant", about uncertainties inherent in decision-making. Traditionally, a probability wheel is a mechanical prop with two colored slices. A user adjusts the sizes of the slices to indicate the relative value of the probabilities assigned to them. A probability wheel can improve the adjustment process and attenuate the effect of anchoring bias when it is used to estimate or communicate probabilities of outcomes. The goal of this work was to develop a mobile application of the probability wheel that is portable, easily available, and more versatile. We provide a motivating example from medical decision-making, but the tool is widely applicable for researchers in the decision sciences.
A probability space for quantum models
Lemmens, L. F.
2017-06-01
A probability space contains a set of outcomes, a collection of events formed by subsets of the set of outcomes and probabilities defined for all events. A reformulation in terms of propositions allows to use the maximum entropy method to assign the probabilities taking some constraints into account. The construction of a probability space for quantum models is determined by the choice of propositions, choosing the constraints and making the probability assignment by the maximum entropy method. This approach shows, how typical quantum distributions such as Maxwell-Boltzmann, Fermi-Dirac and Bose-Einstein are partly related with well-known classical distributions. The relation between the conditional probability density, given some averages as constraints and the appropriate ensemble is elucidated.
Fundamentals of applied probability and random processes
Ibe, Oliver
2005-01-01
This book is based on the premise that engineers use probability as a modeling tool, and that probability can be applied to the solution of engineering problems. Engineers and students studying probability and random processes also need to analyze data, and thus need some knowledge of statistics. This book is designed to provide students with a thorough grounding in probability and stochastic processes, demonstrate their applicability to real-world problems, and introduce the basics of statistics. The book''s clear writing style and homework problems make it ideal for the classroom or for self-study.* Good and solid introduction to probability theory and stochastic processes * Logically organized; writing is presented in a clear manner * Choice of topics is comprehensive within the area of probability * Ample homework problems are organized into chapter sections
Striatal activity is modulated by target probability.
Hon, Nicholas
2017-06-14
Target probability has well-known neural effects. In the brain, target probability is known to affect frontal activity, with lower probability targets producing more prefrontal activation than those that occur with higher probability. Although the effect of target probability on cortical activity is well specified, its effect on subcortical structures such as the striatum is less well understood. Here, I examined this issue and found that the striatum was highly responsive to target probability. This is consistent with its hypothesized role in the gating of salient information into higher-order task representations. The current data are interpreted in light of that fact that different components of the striatum are sensitive to different types of task-relevant information.
Defining Probability in Sex Offender Risk Assessment.
Elwood, Richard W
2016-12-01
There is ongoing debate and confusion over using actuarial scales to predict individuals' risk of sexual recidivism. Much of the debate comes from not distinguishing Frequentist from Bayesian definitions of probability. Much of the confusion comes from applying Frequentist probability to individuals' risk. By definition, only Bayesian probability can be applied to the single case. The Bayesian concept of probability resolves most of the confusion and much of the debate in sex offender risk assessment. Although Bayesian probability is well accepted in risk assessment generally, it has not been widely used to assess the risk of sex offenders. I review the two concepts of probability and show how the Bayesian view alone provides a coherent scheme to conceptualize individuals' risk of sexual recidivism.
Return on Investment from Biochar Application
Current literature has yet to fully address the cost of biochar application or the return on investment to the grower. The objectives were to identify possible on-farm spreader equipment, spreader capacity, application expenses, and rate of return needed for growers to apply biochar economically. Bi...
Aggregate Unemployment Decreases Individual Returns to Education
Ammermueller, Andreas; Kuckulenz, Anja; Zwick, Thomas
2009-01-01
Aggregate unemployment may affect individual returns to education through qualification-specific responses in participation and wage bargaining. This paper shows that an increase in regional unemployment by 1% decreases returns to education by 0.005 percentage points. This implies that higher skilled employees are better sheltered from labour…
A Perishable Inventory Model with Return
Setiawan, S. W.; Lesmono, D.; Limansyah, T.
2018-04-01
In this paper, we develop a mathematical model for a perishable inventory with return by assuming deterministic demand and inventory dependent demand. By inventory dependent demand, it means that demand at certain time depends on the available inventory at that time with certain rate. In dealing with perishable items, we should consider deteriorating rate factor that corresponds to the decreasing quality of goods. There are also costs involved in this model such as purchasing, ordering, holding, shortage (backordering) and returning costs. These costs compose the total costs in the model that we want to minimize. In the model we seek for the optimal return time and order quantity. We assume that after some period of time, called return time, perishable items can be returned to the supplier at some returning costs. The supplier will then replace them in the next delivery. Some numerical experiments are given to illustrate our model and sensitivity analysis is performed as well. We found that as the deteriorating rate increases, returning time becomes shorter, the optimal order quantity and total cost increases. When considering the inventory-dependent demand factor, we found that as this factor increases, assuming a certain deteriorating rate, returning time becomes shorter, optimal order quantity becomes larger and the total cost increases.
Slow return of displaced Southern Sudanese
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Tim Morris
2007-07-01
Full Text Available The pace of repatriation of Sudanese refugees and return of IDP s to South Sudan has picked up but expectations at the time of the signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA CPA in January 2005 have yet to be realised. With all eyes on Darfur, assistance to sustain returns to South Sudan remains inadequate.
Managing Returns in a Catalog Distribution Center
Gates, Joyce; Stuart, Julie Ann; Bonawi-tan, Winston; Loehr, Sarah
2004-01-01
The research team of the Purdue University in the United States developed an algorithm that considers several different factors, in addition to cost, to help catalog distribution centers process their returns more efficiently. A case study to teach the students important concepts involved in developing a solution to the returns disposition problem…
2010-04-01
... 27 Alcohol, Tobacco Products and Firearms 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Tax return. 41.112 Section 41.112 Alcohol, Tobacco Products and Firearms ALCOHOL AND TOBACCO TAX AND TRADE BUREAU, DEPARTMENT OF... States Deferred Payment of Tax in Puerto Rico on Tobacco Products § 41.112 Tax return. The internal...
Economic and accounting rates of return
Feenstra, D.W.; Wang, H.
2000-01-01
The rate of return on invested capital is a central concept in financial analysis. The purpose of calculating the rate of return on investment in general is to measure the financial performance, to assess the desirability of a project and to make decisions on the valuation of firms. Financial
The Returns to Quality in Graduate Education
Stevenson, Adam
2016-01-01
This paper estimates the monetary return to quality in US graduate education, controlling for cognitive ability and self-selection across award level, program quality, and field-of-study. In most program types, I cannot reject the hypothesis of no returns to either degree completion or program quality. Important exceptions include master's…
Predictability of Returns and Cash Flows
Ralph S.J. Koijen; Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh
2010-01-01
We review the literature on return and cash-flow growth predictability from the perspective of the present-value identity. We focus predominantly on recent work. Our emphasis is on U.S. aggregate stock return predictability, but we also discuss evidence from other asset classes and countries.
Legal institutions, strategic default, and stock returns
Favara, G.; Schroth, E.; Valta, P.
2008-01-01
This paper studies the impact of legal institutions on stock returns. More specifically, we examine how differences in debt enforcement and creditor protection around the world affect stock returns of individual firms. We hypothesize that if legal institutions prevent shareholders from engaging in
Return to Experience and Initial Wage Level
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Sørensen, Kenneth Lykke; Vejlin, Rune Majlund
This paper estimates the relationship between initial wage and return to experience. We use a Mincer-like wage model to nonparametrically estimate this relationship allowing for an unobservable individual permanent effect in wages and unobservable individual return to experience. The relationship...
Return to experience and initial wage level
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Sørensen, K.L.; Vejlin, R.
2014-01-01
This paper estimates the relationship between initial wage and return to experience. We use a Mincer-like wage model to non-parametrically estimate this relationship allowing for an unobservable individual permanent effect in wages and unobservable individual return to experience. The relationshi...
Returnable containers: an example of reverse logistics
L.G. Kroon (Leo); G.M.C. Vrijens
1996-01-01
textabstractConsiders the application of returnable containers as an example of reverse logistics. A returnable container is a type of secondary packaging that can be used several times in the same form, in contrast with traditional cardboard boxes. For this equipment to be used, a system for the
Return to the workforce following infective endocarditis
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Butt, Jawad H.; Kragholm, Kristian; Dalager-Pedersen, Michael
2018-01-01
Background The ability to return to work after infective endocarditis (IE) holds important socioeconomic consequences for both patients and society, yet data on this issue are sparse. We examined return to the workforce and associated factors in IE patients of working age. Methods Using Danish...
Husbands' return migration and wives' occupational choices
Mahe, Clotilde
2017-01-01
Exploiting the documented effect of migration on occupational choice upon return to their origin country with data from Egypt, we establish a link between return migration of men and their wives' time use through within-couple occupational interdependence. Seemingly Unrelated Regression model
Parasitic diseases in the returning traveller
African Journals Online (AJOL)
2009-06-11
Jun 11, 2009 ... exception is infection with schistosomiasis after leisure activities in infested freshwater. (the water sports enthusiast returning from a sojourn on Lake Malawi .... are harbouring a 'blind passenger' from abroad. However, long-term travellers, both private or business, should be screened on return. A thorough ...
Contact Lens Related Corneal Ulcer
Loh, KY; Agarwal, P
2010-01-01
A corneal ulcer caused by infection is one of the major causes of blindness worldwide. One of the recent health concerns is the increasing incidence of corneal ulcers associated with contact lens user especially if the users fail to follow specific instruction in using their contact lenses. Risk factors associated with increased risk of contact lens related corneal ulcers are: overnight wear, long duration of continuous wear, lower socio-economic classes, smoking, dry eye and poor hygiene. Th...
Emotional Satisfaction of Customer Contacts
Güngör, Hüseyin
2007-01-01
For marketing and customer services researchers and professionals who are interested in customer contacts, customer satisfaction and loyalty issues. Contact centers are playing a pivotal role in customer services of the 21st century. Nevertheless, despite their growing importance and presence, contact centers are increasingly becoming the center for customer frustration, and frequently associated with negative comments in the media. Therefore, this research explores the Emotional, Cognitive, ...
Spatial probability aids visual stimulus discrimination
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Michael Druker
2010-08-01
Full Text Available We investigated whether the statistical predictability of a target's location would influence how quickly and accurately it was classified. Recent results have suggested that spatial probability can be a cue for the allocation of attention in visual search. One explanation for probability cuing is spatial repetition priming. In our two experiments we used probability distributions that were continuous across the display rather than relying on a few arbitrary screen locations. This produced fewer spatial repeats and allowed us to dissociate the effect of a high probability location from that of short-term spatial repetition. The task required participants to quickly judge the color of a single dot presented on a computer screen. In Experiment 1, targets were more probable in an off-center hotspot of high probability that gradually declined to a background rate. Targets garnered faster responses if they were near earlier target locations (priming and if they were near the high probability hotspot (probability cuing. In Experiment 2, target locations were chosen on three concentric circles around fixation. One circle contained 80% of targets. The value of this ring distribution is that it allowed for a spatially restricted high probability zone in which sequentially repeated trials were not likely to be physically close. Participant performance was sensitive to the high-probability circle in addition to the expected effects of eccentricity and the distance to recent targets. These two experiments suggest that inhomogeneities in spatial probability can be learned and used by participants on-line and without prompting as an aid for visual stimulus discrimination and that spatial repetition priming is not a sufficient explanation for this effect. Future models of attention should consider explicitly incorporating the probabilities of targets locations and features.
The Risk Return Relationship: Evidence from Index Return and Realised Variance Series
Minxian Yang
2014-01-01
The risk return relationship is analysed in bivariate models for return and realised variance(RV) series. Based on daily time series from 21 international market indices for more than 13 years (January 2000 to February 2013), the empirical findings support the arguments of risk return tradeoff, volatility feedback and statistical balance. It is reasoned that the empirical risk return relationship is primarily shaped by two important data features: the negative contemporaneous correlation betw...
Flood protection diversification to reduce probabilities of extreme losses.
Zhou, Qian; Lambert, James H; Karvetski, Christopher W; Keisler, Jeffrey M; Linkov, Igor
2012-11-01
Recent catastrophic losses because of floods require developing resilient approaches to flood risk protection. This article assesses how diversification of a system of coastal protections might decrease the probabilities of extreme flood losses. The study compares the performance of portfolios each consisting of four types of flood protection assets in a large region of dike rings. A parametric analysis suggests conditions in which diversifications of the types of included flood protection assets decrease extreme flood losses. Increased return periods of extreme losses are associated with portfolios where the asset types have low correlations of economic risk. The effort highlights the importance of understanding correlations across asset types in planning for large-scale flood protection. It allows explicit integration of climate change scenarios in developing flood mitigation strategy. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.
Non-contact ultrasound techniques
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Khazali Mohd Zin
2001-01-01
Non-contact ultrasound plays significant role in material characterisation and inspection. Unlike conventional ultrasonic techniques, non-contact ultrasonic is mostly applicable to areas where the former has its weaknesses and limitations. It is interesting to note that the non-contact ultrasonic technique has an important significant application in industry. The technique is signified by the fact that the object to be inspected is further away from the ultrasonic source, no couplant is needed and inconsistent pressure between the transducer and the specimen can be eliminated. The paper discusses some of the non-contact ultrasound technique and its applications. (Author)
Occupational contact dermatitis in hairdressers
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Schwensen, Jakob F; Johansen, Jeanne Duus; Veien, Niels K
2013-01-01
BACKGROUND: Occupational contact dermatitis among hairdressers is frequent, owing to daily exposure to irritants and allergens. OBJECTIVES: To identify sensitization to the most common allergens associated with the occupation of hairdressing. METHODS: Patch test results of 399 hairdressers and 1995...... matched controls with contact dermatitis, registered by the Danish Contact Dermatitis Group between January 2002 and December 2011, were analysed. All patients were patch tested with the European baseline series, and hairdressers were additionally tested with the hairdressing series. RESULTS: Occupational...... contact dermatitis (p dermatitis was less commonly observed among hairdressers (21.3%) than among controls (29.4%) (p
Return currents in solar flares - Collisionless effects
Rowland, H. L.; Vlahos, L.
1985-01-01
If the primary, precipitating electrons in a solar flare are unstable to beam plasma interactions, it is shown that strong Langmuir turbulence can seriously modify the way in which a return current is carried by the background plasma. In particular, the return (or reverse) current will not be carried by the bulk of the electrons, but by a small number of high velocity electrons. For beam/plasma densities greater than 0.01, this can reduce the effects of collisions on the return current. For higher density beams where the return current could be unstable to current driven instabilities, the effects of strong turbulence anomalous resistivity is shown to prevent the appearance of such instabilities. Again in this regime, how the return current is carried is determined by the beam generated strong turbulence.
Poetic Return in Afghanistan Persian Poem
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Esmaeil Shafagh
2012-11-01
Full Text Available Abstract Poetic return movement was started by a group of poets like Moshtagh and Shole Esfehani in the second half of 12 century. Their goal was restoring Persian poem and deliverance of Hindi style decline. Esfahan’s poets initiative was considered only in Iran but in other Persian language and literature areas like India, Afghanistan and Transoxiana it was ignored. After the failure of constitutional Movement in Afghanistan, motion similar poetic return was happened that caused poetic themes, which had gone towards modernism, return to Hindi style again.The present paper attempts to analyze the poetic atmosphere in Afghanistan synchronous the poetic return movement in Iran and investigate socio- political backgrounds of return to Hindi style in Afghanistan after constitution failure.
Is probability of frequency too narrow?
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Martz, H.F.
1993-01-01
Modern methods of statistical data analysis, such as empirical and hierarchical Bayesian methods, should find increasing use in future Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) applications. In addition, there will be a more formalized use of expert judgment in future PRAs. These methods require an extension of the probabilistic framework of PRA, in particular, the popular notion of probability of frequency, to consideration of frequency of frequency, frequency of probability, and probability of probability. The genesis, interpretation, and examples of these three extended notions are discussed
Contact replacement for NMR resonance assignment.
Xiong, Fei; Pandurangan, Gopal; Bailey-Kellogg, Chris
2008-07-01
Complementing its traditional role in structural studies of proteins, nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy is playing an increasingly important role in functional studies. NMR dynamics experiments characterize motions involved in target recognition, ligand binding, etc., while NMR chemical shift perturbation experiments identify and localize protein-protein and protein-ligand interactions. The key bottleneck in these studies is to determine the backbone resonance assignment, which allows spectral peaks to be mapped to specific atoms. This article develops a novel approach to address that bottleneck, exploiting an available X-ray structure or homology model to assign the entire backbone from a set of relatively fast and cheap NMR experiments. We formulate contact replacement for resonance assignment as the problem of computing correspondences between a contact graph representing the structure and an NMR graph representing the data; the NMR graph is a significantly corrupted, ambiguous version of the contact graph. We first show that by combining connectivity and amino acid type information, and exploiting the random structure of the noise, one can provably determine unique correspondences in polynomial time with high probability, even in the presence of significant noise (a constant number of noisy edges per vertex). We then detail an efficient randomized algorithm and show that, over a variety of experimental and synthetic datasets, it is robust to typical levels of structural variation (1-2 AA), noise (250-600%) and missings (10-40%). Our algorithm achieves very good overall assignment accuracy, above 80% in alpha-helices, 70% in beta-sheets and 60% in loop regions. Our contact replacement algorithm is implemented in platform-independent Python code. The software can be freely obtained for academic use by request from the authors.
26 CFR 1.6013-2 - Joint return after filing separate return.
2010-04-01
... the case of a joint return made under section 6013(b), the period of limitations provided in sections... (c)(1) of this section, relating to the application of sections 6501 and 6651 with respect to a joint... 26 Internal Revenue 13 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Joint return after filing separate return. 1...
Changes in Contact Area in Meniscus Horizontal Cleavage Tears Subjected to Repair and Resection.
Beamer, Brandon S; Walley, Kempland C; Okajima, Stephen; Manoukian, Ohan S; Perez-Viloria, Miguel; DeAngelis, Joseph P; Ramappa, Arun J; Nazarian, Ara
2017-03-01
To assess the changes in tibiofemoral contact pressure and contact area in human knees with a horizontal cleavage tear before and after treatment. Ten human cadaveric knees were tested. Pressure sensors were placed under the medial meniscus and the knees were loaded at twice the body weight for 20 cycles at 0°, 10°, and 20° of flexion. Contact area and pressure were recorded for the intact meniscus, the meniscus with a horizontal cleavage tear, after meniscal repair, after partial meniscectomy (single leaflet), and after subtotal meniscectomy (double leaflet). The presence of a horizontal cleavage tear significantly increased average peak contact pressure and reduced effective average tibiofemoral contact area at all flexion angles tested compared with the intact state (P contact pressure after creation of the horizontal cleavage tear. Repairing the horizontal cleavage tear restored peak contact pressures and areas to within 15% of baseline, statistically similar to the intact state at all angles tested (P contact pressure and reduced average contact area at all degrees of flexion compared with the intact state (P contact area and a significant elevation in contact pressure. These changes may accelerate joint degeneration. A suture-based repair of these horizontal cleavage tears returns the contact area and contact pressure to nearly normal, whereas both partial and subtotal meniscectomy lead to significant reductions in contact area and significant elevations in contact pressure within the knee. Repairing horizontal cleavage tears may lead to improved clinical outcomes by preserving meniscal tissue and the meniscal function. Understanding contact area and peak contact pressure resulting from differing strategies for treating horizontal cleavage tears will allow the surgeon to evaluate the best strategy for treating his or her patients who present with this meniscal pathology. Copyright © 2016 Arthroscopy Association of North America. Published by Elsevier
Return to Work After Temporary Disability Pension in Finland.
Laaksonen, Mikko; Gould, Raija
2015-09-01
When it is possible that the employee's work ability can be restored through treatment or rehabilitation, disability pension in Finland is granted for a fixed period. We examined which factors are associated with return to work (RTW) after such temporary disability pension. The study included all Finnish residents whose temporary disability pension from the earnings-related pension system started in 2008 (N = 10,269). Competing risks regression analysis was applied to examine register-based determinants for RTW after temporary disability pension due to mental disorders, musculoskeletal diseases, other diseases, and injury over a 4-year follow-up period. The overall cumulative incidence of RTW was 25%. RTW was more probable after temporary disability pension due to injury and musculoskeletal diseases and less probable after temporary disability pension due to mental disorders. Younger age and higher education increased RTW but differences between genders, private and public sector employees, and occupational classes were relatively small. The probability of RTW was higher among those who were employed before their temporary disability pension (subhazard ratio in multivariate analysis 2.41 (95% CI 2.13-2.72) and among the 9% who participated in vocational rehabilitation during their pension [SHR 2.10 (95% CI 1.90-2.31)]. With some exceptions, the results were fairly similar for all diagnostic causes of temporary disability pension. Return to work after temporary disability pension was relatively uncommon. Nevertheless, in all diagnostic groups RTW continued for the whole follow-up period. The low educated and those not employed before temporary disability pension need more support in their RTW. The strong association between vocational rehabilitation and RTW suggests that increasing rehabilitation among those with impaired work ability may promote RTW.
Floyd F. Myron; Kimberly J. Shinew
1999-01-01
Drawing upon structural theory and social group perspectives, this study examined two propositions developed to explain the relationship between interracial contact and leisure preferences among African Americans and Whites. The first proposition stated that as interracial contact increases, the greater the probability of observing similarity in the leisure...
Probability Modeling of Precipitation Extremes over Two River Basins in Northwest of China
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Zhanling Li
2015-01-01
Full Text Available This paper is focused on the probability modeling with a range of distribution models over two inland river basins in China, together with the estimations of return levels on various return periods. Both annual and seasonal maximum precipitations (MP are investigated based on daily precipitation data at 13 stations from 1960 to 2010 in Heihe River and Shiyang River basins. Results show that GEV, Burr, and Weibull distributions provide the best fit to both annual and seasonal MP. Exponential and Pareto 2 distributions show the worst fit. The estimated return levels for spring MP show decreasing trends from the upper to the middle and then to the lower reaches totally speaking. Summer MP approximates to annual MP both in the quantity and in the spatial distributions. Autumn MP shows a little higher value in the estimated return levels than Spring MP, while keeping consistent with spring MP in the spatial distribution. It is also found that the estimated return levels for annual MP derived from various distributions differ by 22%, 36%, and 53% on average at 20-year, 50-year, and 100-year return periods, respectively.