Computing return times or return periods with rare event algorithms

Science.gov (United States)

Lestang, Thibault; Ragone, Francesco; Bréhier, Charles-Edouard; Herbert, Corentin; Bouchet, Freddy

2018-04-01

The average time between two occurrences of the same event, referred to as its return time (or return period), is a useful statistical concept for practical applications. For instance insurances or public agencies may be interested by the return time of a 10 m flood of the Seine river in Paris. However, due to their scarcity, reliably estimating return times for rare events is very difficult using either observational data or direct numerical simulations. For rare events, an estimator for return times can be built from the extrema of the observable on trajectory blocks. Here, we show that this estimator can be improved to remain accurate for return times of the order of the block size. More importantly, we show that this approach can be generalised to estimate return times from numerical algorithms specifically designed to sample rare events. So far those algorithms often compute probabilities, rather than return times. The approach we propose provides a computationally extremely efficient way to estimate numerically the return times of rare events for a dynamical system, gaining several orders of magnitude of computational costs. We illustrate the method on two kinds of observables, instantaneous and time-averaged, using two different rare event algorithms, for a simple stochastic process, the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process. As an example of realistic applications to complex systems, we finally discuss extreme values of the drag on an object in a turbulent flow.

Evaluation of carrier collection probability in bifacial interdigitated-back-contact crystalline silicon solar cells by the internal quantum efficiency mapping method

Science.gov (United States)

Tachibana, Tomihisa; Tanahashi, Katsuto; Mochizuki, Toshimitsu; Shirasawa, Katsuhiko; Takato, Hidetaka

2018-04-01

Bifacial interdigitated-back-contact (IBC) silicon solar cells with a high bifaciality of 0.91 were fabricated. Screen printing and firing technology were used to reduce the production cost. For the first time, the relationship between the rear side structure and carrier collection probability was evaluated using internal quantum efficiency (IQE) mapping. The measurement results showed that the screen-printed electrode and back surface field (BSF) area led to low IQE. The low carrier collection probability by BSF area can be explained by electrical shading effects. Thus, it is clear that the IQE mapping system is useful to evaluate the IBC cell.

Return to work after cancer and pre-cancer job dissatisfaction

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Heinesen, Eskil; Kolodziejczyk, Christophe; Ladenburg, Jacob

2017-01-01

We investigate the association between pre-cancer job dissatisfaction and return-to-work probability 3 years after a cancer diagnosis. We use a Danish data set combining administrative data and a survey to breast and colon cancer survivors. We find that the return-to-work probability has a negative...... correlation with pre-cancer job dissatisfaction with mental demands (where the correlation is driven by the high-educated) and with physical demands and the superior (where the correlation is driven by the low-educated). Educational gradients in the probability of returning to work after cancer...... are not significantly affected by controlling for pre-cancer job dissatisfaction and pre-cancer ability to work....

On the probability distribution of stock returns in the Mike-Farmer model

Science.gov (United States)

Gu, G.-F.; Zhou, W.-X.

2009-02-01

Recently, Mike and Farmer have constructed a very powerful and realistic behavioral model to mimick the dynamic process of stock price formation based on the empirical regularities of order placement and cancelation in a purely order-driven market, which can successfully reproduce the whole distribution of returns, not only the well-known power-law tails, together with several other important stylized facts. There are three key ingredients in the Mike-Farmer (MF) model: the long memory of order signs characterized by the Hurst index Hs, the distribution of relative order prices x in reference to the same best price described by a Student distribution (or Tsallis’ q-Gaussian), and the dynamics of order cancelation. They showed that different values of the Hurst index Hs and the freedom degree αx of the Student distribution can always produce power-law tails in the return distribution fr(r) with different tail exponent αr. In this paper, we study the origin of the power-law tails of the return distribution fr(r) in the MF model, based on extensive simulations with different combinations of the left part L(x) for x 0 of fx(x). We find that power-law tails appear only when L(x) has a power-law tail, no matter R(x) has a power-law tail or not. In addition, we find that the distributions of returns in the MF model at different timescales can be well modeled by the Student distributions, whose tail exponents are close to the well-known cubic law and increase with the timescale.

Return to sport after ACL reconstruction: a survey between the Italian Society of Knee, Arthroscopy, Sport, Cartilage and Orthopaedic Technologies (SIGASCOT) members.

Science.gov (United States)

Grassi, Alberto; Vascellari, Alberto; Combi, Alberto; Tomaello, Luca; Canata, Gian Luigi; Zaffagnini, Stefano

2016-07-01

A worldwide consensus for timing and criteria for return to sport after anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) reconstruction is lacking. The aim of the study was to survey among the Italian Society of Knee, Arthroscopy, Sport, Cartilage and Orthopaedic Technologies (SIGASCOT) members in order to evaluate their approaches to the return to sport after ACL reconstruction regarding timing and criteria. A web survey among the SIGASCOT members was performed, including 14 questions regarding technical and graft preferences, timing for return to training and competitive activity for contact and non-contact sports and criteria to allow return to sport. Totally, 123 members completed the questionnaire. Return to training sports was allowed within 6 month by 87 % for non-contact sports and by 53 % for contact sports. Return to competitive activity was allowed within 6 months by 48 % for non-contact sports and by 13 % for contact sports. Full ROM (77 %), Lachman test (65 %) and Pivot-Shift test (65 %) were the most used criteria to allow return to sport. The 90 % used at least one clinical score. The SIGASCOT members showed various approaches in the return to sport after ACL reconstruction, with differences between return to training or competitive activity, and between contact and non-contact sports. Six months was generally considered adequate by most of the members for the most demanding activities. The most used criteria to allow return to sport were manual testing. A clear definition of sport activities and more objective criteria for the return to sport are needed. Level V, expert opinion.

One hundred years of return period: Strengths and limitations

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Volpi, E.; Fiori, A.; Grimaldi, S.; Lombardo, F.; Koutsoyiannis, D.

2015-10-01

One hundred years from its original definition by Fuller, the probabilistic concept of return period is widely used in hydrology as well as in other disciplines of geosciences to give an indication on critical event rareness. This concept gains its popularity, especially in engineering practice for design and risk assessment, due to its ease of use and understanding; however, return period relies on some basic assumptions that should be satisfied for a correct application of this statistical tool. Indeed, conventional frequency analysis in hydrology is performed by assuming as necessary conditions that extreme events arise from a stationary distribution and are independent of one another. The main objective of this paper is to investigate the properties of return period when the independence condition is omitted; hence, we explore how the different definitions of return period available in literature affect results of frequency analysis for processes correlated in time. We demonstrate that, for stationary processes, the independence condition is not necessary in order to apply the classical equation of return period (i.e., the inverse of exceedance probability). On the other hand, we show that the time-correlation structure of hydrological processes modifies the shape of the distribution function of which the return period represents the first moment. This implies that, in the context of time-dependent processes, the return period might not represent an exhaustive measure of the probability of failure, and that its blind application could lead to misleading results. To overcome this problem, we introduce the concept of Equivalent Return Period, which controls the probability of failure still preserving the virtue of effectively communicating the event rareness.

Return Migration to Mexico: Does Health Matter?

Science.gov (United States)

Arenas, Erika; Goldman, Noreen; Pebley, Anne R; Teruel, Graciela

2015-12-01

We use data from three rounds of the Mexican Family Life Survey to examine whether migrants in the United States returning to Mexico in the period 2005-2012 have worse health than those remaining in the United States. Despite extensive interest by demographers in health-related selection, this has been a neglected area of study in the literature on U.S.-Mexico migration, and the few results to date have been contradictory and inconclusive. Using five self-reported health variables collected while migrants resided in the United States and subsequent migration history, we find direct evidence of higher probabilities of return migration for Mexican migrants in poor health as well as lower probabilities of return for migrants with improving health. These findings are robust to the inclusion of potential confounders reflecting the migrants' demographic characteristics, economic situation, family ties, and origin and destination characteristics. We anticipate that in the coming decade, health may become an even more salient issue in migrants' decisions about returning to Mexico, given the recent expansion in access to health insurance in Mexico.

Return to work after cancer and pre-cancer job dissatisfaction

OpenAIRE

Heinesen, Eskil; Kolodziejczyk, Christophe; Ladenburg, Jacob; Andersen, Ingelise; Thielen, Karsten

2017-01-01

We investigate the association between pre-cancer job dissatisfaction and return-to-work probability 3 years after a cancer diagnosis. We use a Danish data set combining administrative data and a survey to breast and colon cancer survivors. We find that the return-to-work probability has a negative correlation with pre-cancer job dissatisfaction with mental demands (where the correlation is driven by the high-educated) and with physical demands and the superior (where the correlation is drive...

Pólya number and first return of bursty random walk: Rigorous solutions

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Wan, J.; Xu, X. P.

2012-03-01

The recurrence properties of random walks can be characterized by Pólya number, i.e., the probability that the walker has returned to the origin at least once. In this paper, we investigate Pólya number and first return for bursty random walk on a line, in which the walk has different step size and moving probabilities. Using the concept of the Catalan number, we obtain exact results for first return probability, the average first return time and Pólya number for the first time. We show that Pólya number displays two different functional behavior when the walk deviates from the recurrent point. By utilizing the Lagrange inversion formula, we interpret our findings by transferring Pólya number to the closed-form solutions of an inverse function. We also calculate Pólya number using another approach, which corroborates our results and conclusions. Finally, we consider the recurrence properties and Pólya number of two variations of the bursty random walk model.

Employee experience of workplace supervisor contact and support during long-term sickness absence.

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Buys, Nicholas J; Selander, John; Sun, Jing

2017-12-07

Workplace support is an important factor in promoting successful return to work. The purpose of this article is to examine relationships between supervisor contact, perceived workplace support and demographic variables among employees on long-term sickness absence. Data were collected from 204 public employees at a municipality in Sweden who had been on long term sickness absence (60 days or more) using a 23 question survey instrument that collected information on demographic variables, supervisor contact and perceived workplace support. Most injured employees (97%) reported having contact with their supervisors during their sickness absence, with a majority (56%) reporting high levels of support, including early (58.6%) and multiple (70.7%) contacts. Most were pleased with amount of contact (68.9%) and the majority had discussed workplace accommodations (68.1%). Employees who self-initiated contact, felt the amount of contact was appropriate, had a personal meeting with their supervisors and discussed workplace adjustments reported experiencing higher levels of support from supervisors. Employees on long-term sickness absence appreciate contact from their supervisors and this is associated with perceived workplace support. However, the amount and employee experience of this contact is important. It needs to be perceived by employees as supportive, which includes a focus on strategies (e.g., work adjustment) to facilitate a return to work. Supervisor training is required in this area to support the return to work process. Implications for Rehabilitation Contact and support from workplace supervisors is important to workers on long-term sickness absence. Employees appreciate frequent contact from supervisors during long-terms sickness absence. Employees appreciate a personal meeting with supervisors and the opportunity to discuss issues related to return to work such as work adjustment. Employers should provide training to supervisors on how to communicate and

Stylized facts in internal rates of return on stock index and its derivative transactions

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Pichl, Lukáš; Kaizoji, Taisei; Yamano, Takuya

2007-08-01

Universal features in stock markets and their derivative markets are studied by means of probability distributions in internal rates of return on buy and sell transaction pairs. Unlike the stylized facts in normalized log returns, the probability distributions for such single asset encounters incorporate the time factor by means of the internal rate of return, defined as the continuous compound interest. Resulting stylized facts are shown in the probability distributions derived from the daily series of TOPIX, S & P 500 and FTSE 100 index close values. The application of the above analysis to minute-tick data of NIKKEI 225 and its futures market, respectively, reveals an interesting difference in the behavior of the two probability distributions, in case a threshold on the minimal duration of the long position is imposed. It is therefore suggested that the probability distributions of the internal rates of return could be used for causality mining between the underlying and derivative stock markets. The highly specific discrete spectrum, which results from noise trader strategies as opposed to the smooth distributions observed for fundamentalist strategies in single encounter transactions may be useful in deducing the type of investment strategy from trading revenues of small portfolio investors.

Temporal Oculomotor Inhibition of Return and Spatial Facilitation of Return in a Visual Encoding Task

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Steven G Luke

2013-07-01

Full Text Available Oculomotor inhibition of return (O-IOR is an increase in saccade latency prior to an eye movement to a recently fixated location compared to other locations. It has been proposed that this temporal O-IOR may have spatial consequences, facilitating foraging by inhibiting return to previously attended regions. In order to test this possibility, participants viewed arrays of objects and of words while their eye movements were recorded. Temporal O-IOR was observed, with equivalent effects for object and word arrays, indicating that temporal O-IOR is an oculomotor phenomenon independent of array content. There was no evidence for spatial inhibition of return. Instead, spatial facilitation of return was observed: Participants were significantly more likely than chance to make return saccades and to refixate just-visited locations. Further, the likelihood of making a return saccade to an object or word was contingent on the amount of time spent viewing that object or word before leaving it. This suggests that, unlike temporal O-IOR, return probability is influenced by cognitive processing. Taken together, these results are inconsistent with the hypothesis that inhibition of return functions as a foraging facilitator. The results also provide strong evidence for a different oculomotor bias that could serve as a foraging facilitator: saccadic momentum, a tendency to repeat the most recently executed saccade program. We suggest that models of visual attention could incorporate saccadic momentum in place of inhibition of return.

Should close contacts of returning travellers with typhoid fever be protected by vaccination?

Science.gov (United States)

Kantele, A

2015-03-17

Increasing international travel to areas endemic for typhoid fever correlates with increased risk for travellers to contract the disease. At home, the acutely ill/convalescent patients may pose some risk to their close contacts. In Finland an unofficial guideline suggests vaccination for close contacts of patients with acute typhoid fever; in other developed countries, routine typhoid vaccinations are only recommended to contacts of chronic carriers. This paper discusses the possibilities and limitations of prophylactic/post-exposure typhoid vaccination for contacts of patients with acute disease. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

APC senses cell-cell contacts and moves to the nucleus upon their disruption.

Science.gov (United States)

Brocardo, M G; Bianchini, M; Radrizzani, M; Reyes, G B; Dugour, A V; Taminelli, G L; Gonzalez Solveyra, C; Santa-Coloma, T A

2001-06-22

The adenomatous polyposis coli (APC) tumor suppressor protein is involved in the Wnt/wingless pathway, modulating beta-catenin activity. We report the development of a highly specific, chemically synthesized oligobody (oligonucleotide-based synthetic antibody), directed against the N-terminal region of APC. Using this reagent, we found that within 16 h of disrupting HT-29 cell-cell contacts by harvesting cells with trypsin/EDTA treatment and replating, APC was translocated from the cytoplasm to the nucleus. Five days after plating the cells, when the cells had returned to their normal confluent phenotype and cell-cell contacts were reestablished, APC returned to the cytoplasm. These results suggest that APC functions as part of a "sensor" system, and responds to the loss of cell-cell contacts by moving to the nucleus, and returning to the cytoplasm when the contacts are fully restored. Copyright 2001 Academic Press.

Multivariate return periods of sea storms for coastal erosion risk assessment

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S. Corbella

2012-08-01

Full Text Available The erosion of a beach depends on various storm characteristics. Ideally, the risk associated with a storm would be described by a single multivariate return period that is also representative of the erosion risk, i.e. a 100 yr multivariate storm return period would cause a 100 yr erosion return period. Unfortunately, a specific probability level may be associated with numerous combinations of storm characteristics. These combinations, despite having the same multivariate probability, may cause very different erosion outcomes. This paper explores this ambiguity problem in the context of copula based multivariate return periods and using a case study at Durban on the east coast of South Africa. Simulations were used to correlate multivariate return periods of historical events to return periods of estimated storm induced erosion volumes. In addition, the relationship of the most-likely design event (Salvadori et al., 2011 to coastal erosion was investigated. It was found that the multivariate return periods for wave height and duration had the highest correlation to erosion return periods. The most-likely design event was found to be an inadequate design method in its current form. We explore the inclusion of conditions based on the physical realizability of wave events and the use of multivariate linear regression to relate storm parameters to erosion computed from a process based model. Establishing a link between storm statistics and erosion consequences can resolve the ambiguity between multivariate storm return periods and associated erosion return periods.

We'll meet again: revealing distributional and temporal patterns of social contact.

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Thorsten Pachur

Full Text Available What are the dynamics and regularities underlying social contact, and how can contact with the people in one's social network be predicted? In order to characterize distributional and temporal patterns underlying contact probability, we asked 40 participants to keep a diary of their social contacts for 100 consecutive days. Using a memory framework previously used to study environmental regularities, we predicted that the probability of future contact would follow in systematic ways from the frequency, recency, and spacing of previous contact. The distribution of contact probability across the members of a person's social network was highly skewed, following an exponential function. As predicted, it emerged that future contact scaled linearly with frequency of past contact, proportionally to a power function with recency of past contact, and differentially according to the spacing of past contact. These relations emerged across different contact media and irrespective of whether the participant initiated or received contact. We discuss how the identification of these regularities might inspire more realistic analyses of behavior in social networks (e.g., attitude formation, cooperation.

Returns to beauty over the life course

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jæger, Mads Meier

’ facial attractiveness as well as data on SES, marital, and health outcomes from their mid-20s to their mid-60s. I find that beauty has lasting positive returns for women since more beautiful women have higher SES throughout their working life, have a higher probability of being married at age 25......, and marry high-SES husbands. I find no effects of beauty on health and, in general, no returns to beauty for men....

Models of epidemics: when contact repetition and clustering should be included

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Scholz Roland W

2009-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The spread of infectious disease is determined by biological factors, e.g. the duration of the infectious period, and social factors, e.g. the arrangement of potentially contagious contacts. Repetitiveness and clustering of contacts are known to be relevant factors influencing the transmission of droplet or contact transmitted diseases. However, we do not yet completely know under what conditions repetitiveness and clustering should be included for realistically modelling disease spread. Methods We compare two different types of individual-based models: One assumes random mixing without repetition of contacts, whereas the other assumes that the same contacts repeat day-by-day. The latter exists in two variants, with and without clustering. We systematically test and compare how the total size of an outbreak differs between these model types depending on the key parameters transmission probability, number of contacts per day, duration of the infectious period, different levels of clustering and varying proportions of repetitive contacts. Results The simulation runs under different parameter constellations provide the following results: The difference between both model types is highest for low numbers of contacts per day and low transmission probabilities. The number of contacts and the transmission probability have a higher influence on this difference than the duration of the infectious period. Even when only minor parts of the daily contacts are repetitive and clustered can there be relevant differences compared to a purely random mixing model. Conclusion We show that random mixing models provide acceptable estimates of the total outbreak size if the number of contacts per day is high or if the per-contact transmission probability is high, as seen in typical childhood diseases such as measles. In the case of very short infectious periods, for instance, as in Norovirus, models assuming repeating contacts will also behave

Asset securitization and rate of return: A study on letters of guarantee

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Wu, Binghui

2018-01-01

Using the theory of asset securitization, we analyze the feasibility of the securitization of letters of guarantee in theory. In the process of constructing the model of rate of return of securities backed by letters of guarantee, we propose two indices: the risk probability of asset-backed securities and the loss rate of asset-backed securities to analyze the cash flow of securities. On the basis of no arbitrage principle, the expression of rate of return of securities backed by letters of guarantee is put forward. In order to study the relationship between the rate of return of securities and other influential factor in the model, a simulation experiment is designed. The experiment results show that (i) an increasing risk probability of cash flow or a short maturity date also make the return rate of securities increase and (ii) the return rate of securities is higher in economic boom than that in economic recession when other parameters remain unchanged.

The Determinants of Return Migration: Evidence for Kosovo

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Ardiana Gashi

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Return migration represents a potentially important contributor to economic development for countries that are large exporters of labor. This paper provides an analysis of the determinants of return migration to Kosovo, a country with an especially high level of recent emigration. The findings of this investigation suggest that there is a non-linear relationship between the age of the migrant and their probability of returning. In addition, the more educated migrants and those that have acquired additional education whilst abroad are more likely to return, whereas recent migrants, those that possess permanent resident status and have their family abroad are less likely to return. As expected, the stronger the family ties of a migrant with their home country, the more likely they are to return. Finally, migrants that are expected to invest in businesses in Kosovo are more inclined to return. Together these findings suggest that return migration may be an important contributor to economic development in Kosovo and policies are outlined that could strengthen this contribution.

How are flood risk estimates affected by the choice of return-periods?

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Ward, P. J.; de Moel, H.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.

2011-12-01

Flood management is more and more adopting a risk based approach, whereby flood risk is the product of the probability and consequences of flooding. One of the most common approaches in flood risk assessment is to estimate the damage that would occur for floods of several exceedance probabilities (or return periods), to plot these on an exceedance probability-loss curve (risk curve) and to estimate risk as the area under the curve. However, there is little insight into how the selection of the return-periods (which ones and how many) used to calculate risk actually affects the final risk calculation. To gain such insights, we developed and validated an inundation model capable of rapidly simulating inundation extent and depth, and dynamically coupled this to an existing damage model. The method was applied to a section of the River Meuse in the southeast of the Netherlands. Firstly, we estimated risk based on a risk curve using yearly return periods from 2 to 10 000 yr (€ 34 million p.a.). We found that the overall risk is greatly affected by the number of return periods used to construct the risk curve, with over-estimations of annual risk between 33% and 100% when only three return periods are used. In addition, binary assumptions on dike failure can have a large effect (a factor two difference) on risk estimates. Also, the minimum and maximum return period considered in the curve affects the risk estimate considerably. The results suggest that more research is needed to develop relatively simple inundation models that can be used to produce large numbers of inundation maps, complementary to more complex 2-D-3-D hydrodynamic models. It also suggests that research into flood risk could benefit by paying more attention to the damage caused by relatively high probability floods.

The relationship between operating cash flow per share and portfolio default probability

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Mohammad Khodaei Valahzaghard

2014-03-01

Full Text Available One of the primary duties of the depositary banks is to protect themselves against any possibility of bankruptcy. This requires the identification and measurement of risks, including default risk, which is important given the nature of the activities of banks. This paper presents an empirical investigation to study the relationship between default probability and some financial figures including operating cash flow, liabilities and return of equities. The proposed study of this paper uses historical data of twenty-two firms listed on Tehran Stock Exchange over the period 2008-2012. Default probability as the dependent variable is measured by the method developed by Moody’s KMV Company. The study uses linear regression model to examine the relationship between default probability and some independent variables. The results of the present study suggest that there were some reverse relationship between operating cash flow per share, return on equities and default probability. In addition, there was a direct relationship between log facilities and default probability. However, there was not any relationship between net sales and default probability.

Theoretical research of probability of wedging of particulate matters at polishing

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V.F. Molchanov

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The mechanism of formation of mikroprofile of the polished surface is expounded taking into account influence of particulate matters, contained in lubricating-coolings liquids. Probability of wedging of abrasive particles is investigational in the area of contact of diamond-impregnated with the surface of detail. It is set that for determination of probability of event, when a particle, getting together with a liquid in the area of contact, abandons track-scratch on a superficial layer, it is necessary to take into account, that three mutual locations of hard particle are possible in the area of contact of diamond-impregnated with the surface of detail. It is set researches, that a hard particle, getting together with a liquid in the area of contact, abandons track-scratch on-the-spot in that case, when the sizes of particle are equal or a few exceed distance from the surface of detail to the ledges on-the-spot diamond-impregnated. Researches allow mathematically to define probability of wedging of particulate matters in the area of contact of diamond-impregnated with the surface of the polished detail.

Current thinking: return to play and transient quadriplegia.

Science.gov (United States)

Cantu, Robert V; Cantu, Robert C

2005-02-01

Athletes that participate in contact and collision sports assume risk of serious injury each time they take the field. For those athletes that have sustained an episode of transient quadriplegia, the decision of whether to return to competition can be a difficult one. Some athletes, realizing how close they may have come to permanent injury, may decide that further participation is not in their best interest. Others may be somewhat undecided, and some may want to return at all costs. As the treating physician, the goal is to identify those athletes who after a single episode of transient quadriplegia are at increased risk for further injury and consequently should discontinue participation in contact sports. Factors that may contribute to that determination include mechanism of injury, prior history of neurologic symptoms or injury, and anatomic features that may predispose to further injury such as disc herniation, fracture, or cervical stenosis.

The returns and risks of investment portfolio in stock market crashes

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Jiang-Cheng; Long, Chao; Chen, Xiao-Dan

2015-06-01

The returns and risks of investment portfolio in stock market crashes are investigated by considering a theoretical model, based on a modified Heston model with a cubic nonlinearity, proposed by Spagnolo and Valenti. Through numerically simulating probability density function of returns and the mean escape time of the model, the results indicate that: (i) the maximum stability of returns is associated with the maximum dispersion of investment portfolio and an optimal stop-loss position; (ii) the maximum risks are related with a worst dispersion of investment portfolio and the risks of investment portfolio are enhanced by increasing stop-loss position. In addition, the good agreements between the theoretical result and real market data are found in the behaviors of the probability density function and the mean escape time.

Return to Golf After Lumbar Fusion.

Science.gov (United States)

Shifflett, Grant D; Hellman, Michael D; Louie, Philip K; Mikhail, Christopher; Park, Kevin U; Phillips, Frank M

Spinal fusion surgery is being increasingly performed, yet few studies have focused on return to recreational sports after lumbar fusion and none have specifically analyzed return to golf. Most golfers successfully return to sport after lumbar fusion surgery. Case series. Level 4. All patients who underwent 1- or 2-level primary lumbar fusion surgery for degenerative pathologies performed by a single surgeon between January 2008 and October 2012 and had at least 1-year follow-up were included. Patients completed a specifically designed golf survey. Surveys were mailed, given during follow-up clinic, or answered during telephone contact. A total of 353 patients met the inclusion and exclusion criteria, with 200 responses (57%) to the questionnaire producing 34 golfers. The average age of golfers was 57 years (range, 32-79 years). In 79% of golfers, preoperative back and/or leg pain significantly affected their ability to play golf. Within 1 year from surgery, 65% of patients returned to practice and 52% returned to course play. Only 29% of patients stated that continued back/leg pain limited their play. Twenty-five patients (77%) were able to play the same amount of golf or more than before fusion surgery. Of those providing handicaps, 12 (80%) reported the same or an improved handicap. More than 50% of golfers return to on-course play within 1 year of lumbar fusion surgery. The majority of golfers can return to preoperative levels in terms of performance (handicap) and frequency of play. This investigation offers insight into when golfers return to sport after lumbar fusion surgery and provides surgeons with information to set realistic expectations postoperatively.

Barriers to return to work after burn injuries.

Science.gov (United States)

Esselman, Peter C; Askay, Shelley Wiechman; Carrougher, Gretchen J; Lezotte, Dennis C; Holavanahalli, Radha K; Magyar-Russell, Gina; Fauerbach, James A; Engrav, Loren H

2007-12-01

To identify barriers to return to work after burn injury as identified by the patient. A cohort study with telephone interview up to 1 year. Hospital-based burn centers at 3 national sites. Hospitalized patients (N=154) meeting the American Burn Association criteria for major burn injury, employed at least 20 hours a week at the time of injury, and with access to a telephone after discharge. Patients were contacted via telephone every 2 weeks up to 4 months, then monthly up to 1 year after discharge. A return to work survey was used to identify barriers that prevented patients from returning to work. A graphic rating scale determined the impact of each barrier. By 1 year, 79.7% of patients returned to work. Physical and wound issues were barriers early after discharge. Although physical abilities continued to be a significant barrier up to 1 year, working conditions (temperature, humidity, safety) and psychosocial factors (nightmares, flashbacks, appearance concerns) became important issues in those with long-term disability. The majority of patients return to work after a burn injury. Although physical and work conditions are important barriers, psychosocial issues need to be evaluated and treated to optimize return to work.

A New Method to Calculate Internal Rate of Return

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azadeh zandi

2015-09-01

Full Text Available A number of methods have been developed to choose the best capital investment projects such as net present value, internal rate of return and etc. Internal rate of return method is probably the most popular method among managers and investors. But despite the popularity there are serious drawbacks and limitations in this method. After decades of efforts made by economists and experts to improve the method and its shortcomings, Magni in 2010 has revealed a new approach that can solves the most of internal rate of return method problems. This paper present a new method which is originated from Magni’s approach but has much more simple calculations and can resolve all the drawbacks of internal rate of return method.

Fluctuation behaviors of financial return volatility duration

Science.gov (United States)

Niu, Hongli; Wang, Jun; Lu, Yunfan

2016-04-01

It is of significantly crucial to understand the return volatility of financial markets because it helps to quantify the investment risk, optimize the portfolio, and provide a key input of option pricing models. The characteristics of isolated high volatility events above certain threshold in price fluctuations and the distributions of return intervals between these events arouse great interest in financial research. In the present work, we introduce a new concept of daily return volatility duration, which is defined as the shortest passage time when the future volatility intensity is above or below the current volatility intensity (without predefining a threshold). The statistical properties of the daily return volatility durations for seven representative stock indices from the world financial markets are investigated. Some useful and interesting empirical results of these volatility duration series about the probability distributions, memory effects and multifractal properties are obtained. These results also show that the proposed stock volatility series analysis is a meaningful and beneficial trial.

Nanoscale roughness contact in a slider-disk interface.

Science.gov (United States)

Hua, Wei; Liu, Bo; Yu, Shengkai; Zhou, Weidong

2009-07-15

The nanoscale roughness contact between molecularly smooth surfaces of a slider-disk interface in a hard disk drive is analyzed, and the lubricant behavior at very high shear rate is presented. A new contact model is developed to study the nanoscale roughness contact behavior by classifying various forms of contact into slider-lubricant contact, slider-disk elastic contact and plastic contact. The contact pressure and the contact probabilities of the three types of contact are investigated. The new contact model is employed to explain and provide insight to an interesting experimental result found in a thermal protrusion slider. The protrusion budget for head surfing in the lubricant, which is the ideal state for contact recording, is also discussed.

Nanoscale roughness contact in a slider-disk interface

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hua Wei; Liu Bo; Yu Shengkai; Zhou Weidong

2009-01-01

The nanoscale roughness contact between molecularly smooth surfaces of a slider-disk interface in a hard disk drive is analyzed, and the lubricant behavior at very high shear rate is presented. A new contact model is developed to study the nanoscale roughness contact behavior by classifying various forms of contact into slider-lubricant contact, slider-disk elastic contact and plastic contact. The contact pressure and the contact probabilities of the three types of contact are investigated. The new contact model is employed to explain and provide insight to an interesting experimental result found in a thermal protrusion slider. The protrusion budget for head surfing in the lubricant, which is the ideal state for contact recording, is also discussed.

Posterior labral injury in contact athletes.

Science.gov (United States)

Mair, S D; Zarzour, R H; Speer, K P

1998-01-01

Nine athletes (seven football offensive linemen, one defensive lineman, and one lacrosse player) were found at arthroscopy to have posterior labral detachment from the glenoid. In our series, this lesion is specific to contact athletes who engage their opponents with arms in front of the body. All patients had pain with bench pressing and while participating in their sport, diminishing their ability to play effectively. Conservative measures were ineffective in relieving their symptoms. Examination under anesthesia revealed symmetric glenohumeral translation bilaterally, without evidence of posterior instability. Treatment consisted of glenoid rim abradement and posterior labral repair with a bioabsorbable tack. All patients returned to complete at least one full season of contact sports and weightlifting without pain (minimum follow-up, > or = 2 years). Although many injuries leading to subluxation of the glenohumeral joint occur when an unanticipated force is applied, contact athletes ready their shoulder muscles in anticipation of impact with opponents. This leads to a compressive force at the glenohumeral joint. We hypothesize that, in combination with a posteriorly directed force at impact, the resultant vector is a shearing force to the posterior labrum and articular surface. Repeated exposure leads to posterior labral detachment without capsular injury. Posterior labral reattachment provides consistently good results, allowing the athlete to return to competition.

Lifetime limitations of ohmic, contacting RF MEMS switches with Au, Pt and Ir contact materials due to accumulation of ‘friction polymer’ on the contacts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Czaplewski, David A; Nordquist, Christopher D; Dyck, Christopher W; Patrizi, Gary A; Kraus, Garth M; Cowan, William D

2012-01-01

We present lifetime limitations and failure analysis of many packaged RF MEMS ohmic contacting switches with Au–Au, Au–Ir, and Au–Pt contact materials operating with 100 µN of contact force per contact in hermetically sealed glass wall packages. All metals were tested using the same switch design in a controlled environment to provide a comparison between the performance of the different materials and their corresponding failure mechanisms. The switch lifetimes of the different contact materials varied from several hundred cycles to 200 million cycles with different mechanisms causing failures for different contact materials. Switches with Au–Au contacts failed due to adhesion when thoroughly cleaned while switches with dissimilar metal contacts (Au–Ir and Au–Pt) operated without adhesion failures but failed due to carbon accumulation on the contacts even in a clean, packaged environment as a result of the catalytic behavior of the contact materials. Switch lifetimes correlated inversely with catalytic behavior of the contact metals. The data suggests the path to increase switch lifetime is to use favorable catalytic materials as contacts, design switches with higher contact forces to break through any residual contamination, and use cleaner, probably smaller, packages. (paper)

Return to sports after surgery to correct adolescent idiopathic scoliosis: a survey of the Spinal Deformity Study Group.

Science.gov (United States)

Lehman, Ronald A; Kang, Daniel G; Lenke, Lawrence G; Sucato, Daniel J; Bevevino, Adam J

2015-05-01

There are no guidelines for when surgeons should allow patients to return to sports and athletic activities after spinal fusion for adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS). Current recommendations are based on anecdotal reports and a survey performed more than a decade ago in the era of first/second-generation posterior implants. To identify current recommendations for return to sports and athletic activities after surgery for AIS. Questionnaire-based survey. Adolescent idiopathic scoliosis after corrective surgery. Type and time to return to sports. A survey was administered to members of the Spinal Deformity Study Group. The survey consisted of surgeon demographic information, six clinical case scenarios, three different construct types (hooks, pedicle screws, hybrid), and questions regarding the influence of lowest instrumented vertebra (LIV) and postoperative physical therapy. Twenty-three surgeons completed the survey, and respondents were all experienced expert deformity surgeons. Pedicle screw instrumentation allows earlier return to noncontact and contact sports, with most patients allowed to return to running by 3 months, both noncontact and contact sports by 6 months, and collision sports by 12 months postoperatively. For all construct types, approximately 20% never allow return to collision sports, whereas all surgeons allow eventual return to contact and noncontact sports regardless of construct type. In addition to construct type, we found progressively distal LIV resulted in more surgeons never allowing return to collision sports, with 12% for selective thoracic fusion to T12/L1 versus 33% for posterior spinal fusion to L4. Most respondents also did not recommend formal postoperative physical therapy (78%). Of all surgeons surveyed, there was only one reported instrumentation failure/pullout without neurologic deficit after a patient went snowboarding 2 weeks postoperatively. Modern posterior instrumentation allows surgeons to recommend earlier return

The Tail Exponent for Stock Returns in Bursa Malaysia for 2003-2008

Science.gov (United States)

Rusli, N. H.; Gopir, G.; Usang, M. D.

2010-07-01

A developed discipline of econophysics that has been introduced is exhibiting the application of mathematical tools that are usually applied to the physical models for the study of financial models. In this study, an analysis of the time series behavior of several blue chip and penny stock companies in Main Market of Bursa Malaysia has been performed. Generally, the basic quantity being used is the relative price changes or is called the stock price returns, contains daily-sampled data from the beginning of 2003 until the end of 2008, containing 1555 trading days recorded. The aim of this paper is to investigate the tail exponent in tails of the distribution for blue chip stocks and penny stocks financial returns in six years period. By using a standard regression method, it is found that the distribution performed double scaling on the log-log plot of the cumulative probability of the normalized returns. Thus we calculate α for a small scale return as well as large scale return. Based on the result obtained, it is found that the power-law behavior for the probability density functions of the stock price absolute returns P(z)˜z-α with values lying inside and outside the Lévy stable regime with values α>2. All the results were discussed in detail.

Feature discrimination/identification based upon SAR return variations

Science.gov (United States)

Rasco, W. A., Sr.; Pietsch, R.

1978-01-01

A study of the statistics of The look-to-look variation statistics in the returns recorded in-flight by a digital, realtime SAR system are analyzed. The determination that the variations in the look-to-look returns from different classes do carry information content unique to the classes was illustrated by a model based on four variants derived from four look in-flight SAR data under study. The model was limited to four classes of returns: mowed grass on a athletic field, rough unmowed grass and weeds on a large vacant field, young fruit trees in a large orchard, and metal mobile homes and storage buildings in a large mobile home park. The data population in excess of 1000 returns represented over 250 individual pixels from the four classes. The multivariant discriminant model operated on the set of returns for each pixel and assigned that pixel to one of the four classes, based on the target variants and the probability distribution function of the four variants for each class.

Back to school: drop-out and return to school among youth in Mexico City

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Emilio Blanco Bosco

2014-09-01

Full Text Available This paper addresses the return to school among youngsters in Mexico City that had dropped out of school at some point between the beginning of elementary school and the end of upper secondary level. More than a quarter of these youngsters returned to school, which supports the idea that quitting school does not equal to the end of the educational career. There is a significant association between the socioeconomic origin and the probability of an individual returning to school, although weaker (and in the opposite direction than correlation with the probability of dropping out. Complex, non-linear patterns were found between the return and the moment when the drop out occurred, which questions mainstream theories about educational decisions. It was also found that an important proportion of those who returned to school completed upper secondary education, particularly remarkable among youngsters of lower social origins. The evidence supports the idea of considering both the effects of the social structure and the individual agency, and particularly to take into account the actors’ rationality.

Does everyone use probabilities? The role of cognitive skills

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Binswanger, J.S.; Salm, Martin

What is the role of cognitive skills in decision making under uncertainty? We address this question by examining the relationship between responses to survey questions about subjective probabilities of stock market returns and stock holding decisions. Based on data from the Health and Retirement

Informing disease models with temporal and spatial contact structure among GPS-collared individuals in wild populations.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David M Williams

Full Text Available Contacts between hosts are essential for transmission of many infectious agents. Understanding how contacts, and thus transmission rates, occur in space and time is critical to effectively responding to disease outbreaks in free-ranging animal populations. Contacts between animals in the wild are often difficult to observe or measure directly. Instead, one must infer contacts from metrics such as proximity in space and time. Our objective was to examine how contacts between white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus vary in space and among seasons. We used GPS movement data from 71 deer in central New York State to quantify potential direct contacts between deer and indirect overlap in space use across time and space. Daily probabilities of direct contact decreased from winter (0.05-0.14, to low levels post-parturition through summer (0.00-0.02, and increased during the rut to winter levels. The cumulative distribution for the spatial structure of direct and indirect contact probabilities around a hypothetical point of occurrence increased rapidly with distance for deer pairs separated by 1,000 m-7,000 m. Ninety-five percent of the probabilities of direct contact occurred among deer pairs within 8,500 m of one another, and 99% within 10,900 m. Probabilities of indirect contact accumulated across greater spatial extents: 95% at 11,900 m and 99% at 49,000 m. Contacts were spatially consistent across seasons, indicating that although contact rates differ seasonally, they occur proportionally across similar landscape extents. Distributions of contact probabilities across space can inform management decisions for assessing risk and allocating resources in response.

Evaluation of contact sensitivity to topical drugs in patients with contact dermatitis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bilge Bülbül Şen

2013-03-01

Full Text Available Background and Design: Topical drugs are an important group of contact allergens. The present study aimed to evaluate contact sensitivity to topical drugs in patients with contact dermatitis. Materials and Methods: Between 2003 and 2008, 129 patients were followed up at the Department of Dermatology at Ankara University School of Medicine with clinically suspected contact sensitivity to topical drugs. In this study, the patch test reactions to the European Standard Battery and topical drugs used by the patients and medicament patch test results were evaluated. Results: Positive patch test reaction to one or more allergens was found in 80 (62.0% of 129 patients included in the study. Sixty-one of the 80 patients (61/129, 47.3% had positive patch test reaction to medicaments. Medicament sensitivity was detected in 37.9% (49/129 of subjects. Nitrofurazone was found to be the most common allergen (18.6%. Discussion: The present study showed that topical drugs are a frequent cause of allergic contact dermatitis. Therefore, the probability of contact sensitivity to topical drugs should also be considered in patients with the clinical diagnosis of allergic contact dermatitis and, suspected cases should be evaluated further with patch testing in order to find the responsible allergens.

A severe transmissible Majocchi's granuloma in an immunocompetent returned traveler

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

James G. Gallo

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Severe dermatophyte infection is rare in immunocompetent adults. Recently cases have been described in travelers returning from South East Asia (Luchsinger et al., 2015 [1]. These may be sexually transmitted and can have permanent sequelae. We describe the first reported case of Majocchi's granuloma (MG in an Australian returned traveler and its subsequent transmission via sexual contact. Both patients were successfully treated with systemic antifungals. MG should be considered in patients with severe rash after travel to South East Asia. Keywords: Trichophyton interdigitale, Majocchi's granuloma, Dermatophyte infection, Tinea corporis

The Right Man for the Job - Increasing Returns in Search?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

C.N. Teulings (Coen); P.A. Gautier (Pieter)

2000-01-01

textabstractThis paper describes a search model with a continuum of worker and job types, transferable utility and an IRS contact technology. We apply a second order Taylor expansion to approximate an analytical solution of the equilibrium. We find that one third of the increasing returns in

Prevalence and evolution of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection in tuberculosis case contacts

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Silvia Paulino Ribeiro Albanese

2015-06-01

Full Text Available INTRODUCTION : The tuberculin test is a diagnostic method for detecting latent tuberculosis (TB infection, especially among disease contact cases. The objective of this study was to analyze the prevalence and evolution of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection among TB contact cases. METHODS : A retrospective cohort study was performed in a reference center for TB. The study population consisted of 2,425 patients who underwent a tuberculin test from 2003 to 2010 and whose results indicated contact with individuals with TB. The data were collected from the registry book of the tuberculin tests, patient files and the Information System Records of Notification Grievance. To verify the evolution of TB, case records through September 2014 were consulted. Data were analyzed using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS. In all hypothesis tests, a significance level of 0.05 was used. RESULTS : From the studied sample, 435 (17.9% contacts did not return for reading. Among the 1,990 contacts that completed the test, the prevalence of latent TB infection was 35.4%. Of these positive cases, 50.6% were referred to treatment; the dropout rate was 42.5%. Among all of the contacts, the TB prevalence was 1.8%, from which 13.2% abandoned treatment. CONCLUSIONS : The collected data indicate the need for more effective public policies to improve TB control, including administering tests that do not require a return visit for reading, enhancing contact tracing and encouraging actions that reinforce full treatment adherence.

Does a Syrinx Matter for Return to Play in Contact Sports? A Case Report and Evidence-Based Review of Return-to-Play Criteria After Transient Quadriplegia.

Science.gov (United States)

Milles, Jeffrey L; Gallizzi, Michael A; Sherman, Seth L; Smith, Patrick A; Choma, Theodore J

2014-09-01

Transient quadriplegia is a rare injury that can change the course of an athlete's career if misdiagnosed or managed inappropriately. The clinician should be well versed in the return-to-play criteria for this type of injury. Unfortunately, when an unknown preexisting syrinx is present in the athlete, there is less guidance on their ability to return to play. This case report and review of the current literature illustrates a National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) Division I football player who suffered a transient quadriplegic event during a kickoff return that subsequently was found to have an incidental cervical syrinx on magnetic resonance imaging. The player was able to have a full neurologic recovery, but ultimately he was withheld from football.

Probability modeling of high flow extremes in Yingluoxia watershed, the upper reaches of Heihe River basin

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Zhanling; Li, Zhanjie; Li, Chengcheng

2014-05-01

Probability modeling of hydrological extremes is one of the major research areas in hydrological science. Most basins in humid and semi-humid south and east of China are concerned for probability modeling analysis of high flow extremes. While, for the inland river basin which occupies about 35% of the country area, there is a limited presence of such studies partly due to the limited data availability and a relatively low mean annual flow. The objective of this study is to carry out probability modeling of high flow extremes in the upper reach of Heihe River basin, the second largest inland river basin in China, by using the peak over threshold (POT) method and Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD), in which the selection of threshold and inherent assumptions for POT series are elaborated in details. For comparison, other widely used probability distributions including generalized extreme value (GEV), Lognormal, Log-logistic and Gamma are employed as well. Maximum likelihood estimate is used for parameter estimations. Daily flow data at Yingluoxia station from 1978 to 2008 are used. Results show that, synthesizing the approaches of mean excess plot, stability features of model parameters, return level plot and the inherent independence assumption of POT series, an optimum threshold of 340m3/s is finally determined for high flow extremes in Yingluoxia watershed. The resulting POT series is proved to be stationary and independent based on Mann-Kendall test, Pettitt test and autocorrelation test. In terms of Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, Anderson-Darling test and several graphical diagnostics such as quantile and cumulative density function plots, GPD provides the best fit to high flow extremes in the study area. The estimated high flows for long return periods demonstrate that, as the return period increasing, the return level estimates are probably more uncertain. The frequency of high flow extremes exhibits a very slight but not significant decreasing trend from 1978 to

Fractal asset returns, arbitrage and option pricing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Potgieter, Petrus H.

2009-01-01

In the discrete-time fractional random walk model a market with one risky asset affords an arbitrage opportunity as described by Cutland et al. [Cutland NJ, Kopp PE, Willinger W. Stock price returns and the Joseph effect: a fractional version of the Black-Scholes model. In: Russo Francesco, Bolthausen Erwin, Dozzi Marco, editors. Seminar on 6 stochastic analysis, random fields and applications, pp. 327-351. Seminar on stochastic analysis, random fields and applications. Ascona: Centro Stefano Franscini; 1993, Progress in probability 36. Birkhauser Verlag; 1995.] and Sottinen [Sottinen Tommi. Fractional Brownian motion, random walks and binary market models. Finance Stoch 2001;5(3):343-355]. We briefly discuss these results and compute a numerical example in a fractional binomial model as illustration and mention an option pricing model for assets the returns of which are driven by a fractional Brownian motion [Yaozhong Hu, Bernt Oksendal. Fractional white noise calculus and applications to finance. Infin Dimens Anal Quant Probability Rel Top 2003;6:1-32, ISSN 0219-0257; Fajardo J, Cajueiro DO. Volatility estimation and option pricing with fractional Brownian motion, October 2003. Available from: (http://ideas.repec.org/p/ibm/finlab/flwp53.html)].

Are You at Risk for Contact Dermatitis? | Poster

Science.gov (United States)

You probably don’t give much thought to hand health. Until something goes wrong, almost everyone takes for granted that these crucial appendages will continue working as they always have. But hand health is an important consideration, especially at work. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), allergic contact dermatitis and irritant contact

q-Gaussian distributions of leverage returns, first stopping times, and default risk valuations

Science.gov (United States)

Katz, Yuri A.; Tian, Li

2013-10-01

We study the probability distributions of daily leverage returns of 520 North American industrial companies that survive de-listing during the financial crisis, 2006-2012. We provide evidence that distributions of unbiased leverage returns of all individual firms belong to the class of q-Gaussian distributions with the Tsallis entropic parameter within the interval 1distributions imply a much higher probability of extreme movements in a company’s leverage ratio than forecasted by the normal distribution (q=1). Motivated by these findings, we develop a q-Gaussian generalization of traditional structural models of default. Derived exact analytical expressions for the probability distribution of a first stopping time and its intensity forecast significantly higher probability of default and much wider credit spreads at short time-horizons. Our findings are broadly consistent with the results of empirical studies in equity markets and are essential for single-name default forecasting as well as valuations of portfolio credit risk and economic capital, which might be underestimated by a classic theory of diversified portfolio optimization.

The returns and risks of investment portfolio in a financial market

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Jiang-Cheng; Mei, Dong-Cheng

2014-07-01

The returns and risks of investment portfolio in a financial system was investigated by constructing a theoretical model based on the Heston model. After the theoretical model and analysis of portfolio were calculated and analyzed, we find the following: (i) The statistical properties (i.e., the probability distribution, the variance and loss rate of equity portfolio return) between simulation results of the theoretical model and the real financial data obtained from Dow Jones Industrial Average are in good agreement; (ii) The maximum dispersion of the investment portfolio is associated with the maximum stability of the equity portfolio return and minimal investment risks; (iii) An increase of the investment period and a worst investment period are associated with a decrease of stability of the equity portfolio return and a maximum investment risk, respectively.

On the Empirical Importance of the Conditional Skewness Assumption in Modelling the Relationship between Risk and Return

Science.gov (United States)

Pipień, M.

2008-09-01

We present the results of an application of Bayesian inference in testing the relation between risk and return on the financial instruments. On the basis of the Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model, proposed by Merton we built a general sampling distribution suitable in analysing this relationship. The most important feature of our assumptions is that the skewness of the conditional distribution of returns is used as an alternative source of relation between risk and return. This general specification relates to Skewed Generalized Autoregressive Conditionally Heteroscedastic-in-Mean model. In order to make conditional distribution of financial returns skewed we considered the unified approach based on the inverse probability integral transformation. In particular, we applied hidden truncation mechanism, inverse scale factors, order statistics concept, Beta and Bernstein distribution transformations and also a constructive method. Based on the daily excess returns on the Warsaw Stock Exchange Index we checked the empirical importance of the conditional skewness assumption on the relation between risk and return on the Warsaw Stock Market. We present posterior probabilities of all competing specifications as well as the posterior analysis of the positive sign of the tested relationship.

Contact-dependent cytopathogenic mechanisms of Trichomonas vaginalis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Krieger, J.N.; Ravdin, J.I.; Rein, M.F.

1985-12-01

The cytopathogenic mechanisms of Trichomonas vaginalis have been debated since the 1940s. We examined the following three proposed pathogenic mechanisms: contact-dependent extracellular killing, cytophagocytosis, and extracellular cytotoxins. Serial observations of Chinese hamster ovary (CHO) cell monolayers exposed to trichomonads revealed that (i) trichomonads form clumps, (ii) the clumps adhere to cells in culture, and (iii) monolayer destruction occurs only in areas of contact with T. vaginalis. Kinetic analysis of target cell killing by trichomonads revealed that the probability of CHO cell death was related to the probability of contact with T. vaginalis, supporting the observation by microscopy that trichomonads kill cells only by direct contact. Simultaneous studies of /sup 111/indium oxine label release from CHO cells and trypan blue dye exclusion demonstrated that T. vaginalis kills target cells without phagocytosis. Filtrates of trichomonad cultures or from media in which trichomonads were killing CHO cells had no effect on CHO cell monolayers, indicating that trichomonads do not kill cells by a cell-free or secreted cytotoxin. The microfilament inhibitor cytochalasin D (10 micrograms/ml) inhibited trichomonad killing of CHO cell monolayers by 80% (P less than 0.0001). In contrast, the microtubule inhibitor vinblastine (10(-6) M) caused only 17% inhibition of trichomonad destruction of CHO cell monolayers (P less than 0.020), whereas colchicine (10(-6) M) had no effect. T. vaginalis kills target cells by direct contact without phagocytosis. This event requires intact trichomonad microfilament function; microtubule function appears not to be essential.

Contact-dependent cytopathogenic mechanisms of Trichomonas vaginalis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krieger, J.N.; Ravdin, J.I.; Rein, M.F.

1985-01-01

The cytopathogenic mechanisms of Trichomonas vaginalis have been debated since the 1940s. We examined the following three proposed pathogenic mechanisms: contact-dependent extracellular killing, cytophagocytosis, and extracellular cytotoxins. Serial observations of Chinese hamster ovary (CHO) cell monolayers exposed to trichomonads revealed that (i) trichomonads form clumps, (ii) the clumps adhere to cells in culture, and (iii) monolayer destruction occurs only in areas of contact with T. vaginalis. Kinetic analysis of target cell killing by trichomonads revealed that the probability of CHO cell death was related to the probability of contact with T. vaginalis, supporting the observation by microscopy that trichomonads kill cells only by direct contact. Simultaneous studies of 111 indium oxine label release from CHO cells and trypan blue dye exclusion demonstrated that T. vaginalis kills target cells without phagocytosis. Filtrates of trichomonad cultures or from media in which trichomonads were killing CHO cells had no effect on CHO cell monolayers, indicating that trichomonads do not kill cells by a cell-free or secreted cytotoxin. The microfilament inhibitor cytochalasin D (10 micrograms/ml) inhibited trichomonad killing of CHO cell monolayers by 80% (P less than 0.0001). In contrast, the microtubule inhibitor vinblastine (10(-6) M) caused only 17% inhibition of trichomonad destruction of CHO cell monolayers (P less than 0.020), whereas colchicine (10(-6) M) had no effect. T. vaginalis kills target cells by direct contact without phagocytosis. This event requires intact trichomonad microfilament function; microtubule function appears not to be essential

Ratio K: a New Way of Metering and Evaluating the Risk and Return of Stock Investment

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

朱淑珍; 朱静怡

2003-01-01

Although widely used, both the Markowitz model and VAR (Value at Risk) model have some limitations in evaluating the risk and return of stock investnent.By the analysis of the conceptions of risk and return,together with the three hypotheses of technological analysis, a novelty model of metering and evaluating the risk and return of stock investnent is established.The major indicator of this model , risk-return ratio K, combines the characteristic indicators of risk and return. Regardless of the form of the risk-return probability density functions, this indicator K can always reflect the risk-return performances of the invested stocks clearly and accurately. How to use the model to make optimum investment and how to make portfolio combined with clustering analysis is also explained.

Return to Play Following Anterior Shoulder Dislocation and Stabilization Surgery.

Science.gov (United States)

Donohue, Michael A; Owens, Brett D; Dickens, Jonathan F

2016-10-01

Anterior shoulder instability in athletes may lead to time lost from participation and decreases in level of play. Contact, collision, and overhead athletes are at a higher risk than others. Athletes may successfully be returned to play but operative stabilization should be considered for long-term treatment of recurrent instability. Open and arthroscopic stabilization procedures for athletes with less than 20% to 25% bone loss improve return to play rates and decrease recurrent instability, with a slightly lower recurrence with open stabilization. For athletes with greater than 20% to 25% bone loss, an open osseous augmentation procedure should be considered. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Invariance in the recurrence of large returns and the validation of models of price dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Chang, Lo-Bin; Geman, Stuart; Hsieh, Fushing; Hwang, Chii-Ruey

2013-08-01

Starting from a robust, nonparametric definition of large returns (“excursions”), we study the statistics of their occurrences, focusing on the recurrence process. The empirical waiting-time distribution between excursions is remarkably invariant to year, stock, and scale (return interval). This invariance is related to self-similarity of the marginal distributions of returns, but the excursion waiting-time distribution is a function of the entire return process and not just its univariate probabilities. Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models, market-time transformations based on volume or trades, and generalized (Lévy) random-walk models all fail to fit the statistical structure of excursions.

Multifactor analysis of multiscaling in volatility return intervals.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Fengzhong; Yamasaki, Kazuko; Havlin, Shlomo; Stanley, H Eugene

2009-01-01

We study the volatility time series of 1137 most traded stocks in the U.S. stock markets for the two-year period 2001-2002 and analyze their return intervals tau , which are time intervals between volatilities above a given threshold q . We explore the probability density function of tau , P_(q)(tau) , assuming a stretched exponential function, P_(q)(tau) approximately e;(-tau;(gamma)) . We find that the exponent gamma depends on the threshold in the range between q=1 and 6 standard deviations of the volatility. This finding supports the multiscaling nature of the return interval distribution. To better understand the multiscaling origin, we study how gamma depends on four essential factors, capitalization, risk, number of trades, and return. We show that gamma depends on the capitalization, risk, and return but almost does not depend on the number of trades. This suggests that gamma relates to the portfolio selection but not on the market activity. To further characterize the multiscaling of individual stocks, we fit the moments of tau , mu_(m) identical with(tautau);(m);(1m) , in the range of 10portfolio optimization.

Multifactor analysis of multiscaling in volatility return intervals

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Fengzhong; Yamasaki, Kazuko; Havlin, Shlomo; Stanley, H. Eugene

2009-01-01

We study the volatility time series of 1137 most traded stocks in the U.S. stock markets for the two-year period 2001-2002 and analyze their return intervals τ , which are time intervals between volatilities above a given threshold q . We explore the probability density function of τ , Pq(τ) , assuming a stretched exponential function, Pq(τ)˜e-τγ . We find that the exponent γ depends on the threshold in the range between q=1 and 6 standard deviations of the volatility. This finding supports the multiscaling nature of the return interval distribution. To better understand the multiscaling origin, we study how γ depends on four essential factors, capitalization, risk, number of trades, and return. We show that γ depends on the capitalization, risk, and return but almost does not depend on the number of trades. This suggests that γ relates to the portfolio selection but not on the market activity. To further characterize the multiscaling of individual stocks, we fit the moments of τ , μm≡⟨(τ/⟨τ⟩)m⟩1/m , in the range of 10portfolio optimization.

The Cross-Section of Credit Risk Premia and Equity Returns

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Friewald, Nils; Wagner, Christian; Zechner, Josef

2014-01-01

We explore the link between a firm's stock returns and credit risk using a simple insight from structural models following Merton (1974): risk premia on equity and credit instruments are related because all claims on assets must earn the same compensation per unit of risk. Consistent with theory......, we find that firms' stock returns increase with credit risk premia estimated from CDS spreads. Credit risk premia contain information not captured by physical or risk-neutral default probabilities alone. This sheds new light on the “distress puzzle”—the lack of a positive relation between equity...

The Cross-Section of Credit Risk Premia and Equity Returns

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Friewald, Niels; Wagner, Christian; Zechner, Josef

We explore the link between a firm's stock returns and its credit risk using a simple insight from structural models following Merton (1974): risk premia on equity and credit instruments are related because all claims on assets must earn the same compensation per unit of risk. Consistent...... with theory, we find that firms' stock returns increase with credit risk premia estimated from CDS spreads. Credit risk premia contain information not captured by physical or by risk-neutral default probabilities alone. This sheds new light on the "distress puzzle", i.e. the lack of a positive relation...

Automatic Monitoring System Design and Failure Probability Analysis for River Dikes on Steep Channel

Science.gov (United States)

Chang, Yin-Lung; Lin, Yi-Jun; Tung, Yeou-Koung

2017-04-01

The purposes of this study includes: (1) design an automatic monitoring system for river dike; and (2) develop a framework which enables the determination of dike failure probabilities for various failure modes during a rainstorm. The historical dike failure data collected in this study indicate that most dikes in Taiwan collapsed under the 20-years return period discharge, which means the probability of dike failure is much higher than that of overtopping. We installed the dike monitoring system on the Chiu-She Dike which located on the middle stream of Dajia River, Taiwan. The system includes: (1) vertical distributed pore water pressure sensors in front of and behind the dike; (2) Time Domain Reflectometry (TDR) to measure the displacement of dike; (3) wireless floating device to measure the scouring depth at the toe of dike; and (4) water level gauge. The monitoring system recorded the variation of pore pressure inside the Chiu-She Dike and the scouring depth during Typhoon Megi. The recorded data showed that the highest groundwater level insides the dike occurred 15 hours after the peak discharge. We developed a framework which accounts for the uncertainties from return period discharge, Manning's n, scouring depth, soil cohesion, and friction angle and enables the determination of dike failure probabilities for various failure modes such as overtopping, surface erosion, mass failure, toe sliding and overturning. The framework was applied to Chiu-She, Feng-Chou, and Ke-Chuang Dikes on Dajia River. The results indicate that the toe sliding or overturning has the highest probability than other failure modes. Furthermore, the overall failure probability (integrate different failure modes) reaches 50% under 10-years return period flood which agrees with the historical failure data for the study reaches.

Contact parameter identification for vibrational response variability prediction

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Creixell Mediante, Ester; Brunskog, Jonas; Jensen, Jakob Søndergaard

2018-01-01

industry, where the vibrational behavior of the structures within the hearing frequency range is critical for the performance of the devices. A procedure to localize the most probable contact areas and determine the most sensitive contact points with respect to variations in the modes of vibration......Variability in the dynamic response of assembled structures can arise due to variations in the contact conditions between the parts that conform them. Contact conditions are difficult to model accurately due to randomness in physical properties such as contact surface, load distribution...... or geometric details. Those properties can vary for a given structure due to the assembly and disassembly process, and also across nominally equal items that are produced in series. This work focuses on modeling the contact between small light-weight plastic pieces such as those used in the hearing aid...

Media planning by optimizing contact frequencies

NARCIS (Netherlands)

N. Piersma (Nanda); S. Kapsenberg; P. Kloprogge; A.P.M. Wagelmans (Albert)

1998-01-01

textabstractIn this paper we study a model to estimate the probability that a target group of an advertising campaign is reached by a commercial message a given number of times. This contact frequency distribution is known to be computationally difficult to calculate because of dependence between

Modeling of contact tracing in social networks

Science.gov (United States)

Tsimring, Lev S.; Huerta, Ramón

2003-07-01

Spreading of certain infections in complex networks is effectively suppressed by using intelligent strategies for epidemic control. One such standard epidemiological strategy consists in tracing contacts of infected individuals. In this paper, we use a recently introduced generalization of the standard susceptible-infectious-removed stochastic model for epidemics in sparse random networks which incorporates an additional (traced) state. We describe a deterministic mean-field description which yields quantitative agreement with stochastic simulations on random graphs. We also discuss the role of contact tracing in epidemics control in small-world and scale-free networks. Effectiveness of contact tracing grows as the rewiring probability is reduced.

Case management interviews and the return to work of disabled employees

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Høgelund, Jan; Holm, Anders

In response to an increasing number of sickness and disability beneficiaries, many countries have launched policies that emphasize the role of case management. This study measures the effect of case-management interview (CMI) on long-term sick-listed employees’ probability of returning to work...

Muscular Sarcocystosis in travelers returning from Tioman Island, Malaysia — 2011

Science.gov (United States)

In October 2011, the GeoSentinel global surveillance system for travel-related morbidity detected an unusual cluster of illnesses among travelers returning from Tioman Island, Malaysia. Complete information was received for 17 of 32 (53%) patients reported to GeoSentinel; 9 probable and 1 confirmed ...

Probabilities for profitable fungicide use against gray leaf spot in hybrid maize.

Science.gov (United States)

Munkvold, G P; Martinson, C A; Shriver, J M; Dixon, P M

2001-05-01

ABSTRACT Gray leaf spot, caused by the fungus Cercospora zeae-maydis, causes considerable yield losses in hybrid maize grown in the north-central United States and elsewhere. Nonchemical management tactics have not adequately prevented these losses. The probability of profitably using fungicide application as a management tool for gray leaf spot was evaluated in 10 field experiments under conditions of natural inoculum in Iowa. Gray leaf spot severity in untreated control plots ranged from 2.6 to 72.8% for the ear leaf and from 3.0 to 7.7 (1 to 9 scale) for whole-plot ratings. In each experiment, fungicide applications with propiconazole or mancozeb significantly reduced gray leaf spot severity. Fungicide treatment significantly (P probability of achieving a positive net return with one or two propiconazole applications, based on the mean yields and standard deviations for treated and untreated plots, the price of grain, and the costs of the fungicide applications. For one application, the probability ranged from approximately 0.06 to more than 0.99, and exceeded 0.50 in six of nine scenarios (specific experiment/hybrid). The highest probabilities occurred in the 1995 experiments with the most susceptible hybrid. Probabilities were almost always higher for a single application of propiconazole than for two applications. These results indicate that a single application of propiconazole frequently can be profitable for gray leaf spot management in Iowa, but the probability of a profitable application is strongly influenced by hybrid susceptibility. The calculation of probabilities for positive net returns was more informative than mean separation in terms of assessing the economic success of the fungicide applications.

Contact effects analyzed by a parameter extraction method based on a single bottom-gate/top-contact organic thin-film transistor

Science.gov (United States)

Takagaki, Shunsuke; Yamada, Hirofumi; Noda, Kei

2018-03-01

Contact effects in organic thin-film transistors (OTFTs) were examined by using our previously proposed parameter extraction method from the electrical characteristics of a single staggered-type device. Gate-voltage-dependent contact resistance and channel mobility in the linear regime were evaluated for bottom-gate/top-contact (BGTC) pentacene TFTs with active layers of different thicknesses, and for pentacene TFTs with contact-doped layers prepared by coevaporation of pentacene and tetrafluorotetracyanoquinodimethane (F4TCNQ). The extracted parameters suggested that the influence of the contact resistance becomes more prominent with the larger active-layer thickness, and that contact-doping experiments give rise to a drastic decrease in the contact resistance and a concurrent considerable improvement in the channel mobility. Additionally, the estimated energy distributions of trap density in the transistor channel probably reflect the trap filling with charge carriers injected into the channel regions. The analysis results in this study confirm the effectiveness of our proposed method, with which we can investigate contact effects and circumvent the influences of characteristic variations in OTFT fabrication.

Identifying Key Drivers of Return Reversal with Dynamical Bayesian Factor Graph.

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Shuai Zhao

Full Text Available In the stock market, return reversal occurs when investors sell overbought stocks and buy oversold stocks, reversing the stocks' price trends. In this paper, we develop a new method to identify key drivers of return reversal by incorporating a comprehensive set of factors derived from different economic theories into one unified dynamical Bayesian factor graph. We then use the model to depict factor relationships and their dynamics, from which we make some interesting discoveries about the mechanism behind return reversals. Through extensive experiments on the US stock market, we conclude that among the various factors, the liquidity factors consistently emerge as key drivers of return reversal, which is in support of the theory of liquidity effect. Specifically, we find that stocks with high turnover rates or high Amihud illiquidity measures have a greater probability of experiencing return reversals. Apart from the consistent drivers, we find other drivers of return reversal that generally change from year to year, and they serve as important characteristics for evaluating the trends of stock returns. Besides, we also identify some seldom discussed yet enlightening inter-factor relationships, one of which shows that stocks in Finance and Insurance industry are more likely to have high Amihud illiquidity measures in comparison with those in other industries. These conclusions are robust for return reversals under different thresholds.

Formation and Evolution of Contact Binaries

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Peter P. Eggleton

2012-06-01

Full Text Available describe a series of processes, including hierarchical fragmentation, gravitational scattering, Kozai cycles within triple systems, tidal friction and magnetic braking, that I believe are responsible for producing the modest but significant fraction of stars that are observed as contact binaries. I also discuss further processes, namely heat transport, mass transport, nuclear evolution, thermal relaxation oscillations, and further magnetic braking with tidal friction, that influence the evolution during contact. The endpoint, for contact, is that the two components merge into a single star, as recently was observed in the remarkable system V1309 Sco. The single star probably throws off some mass and rotates rapidly at first, and then slows by magnetic braking to become a rather inconspicuous but normal dwarf or subgiant. If however the contact binary was part of a triple system originally–as I suggested above was rather likely–then the result could be a widish binary with apparently non-coeval components. There are several such known.

Conductance histogram evolution of an EC-MCBJ fabricated Au atomic point contact

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yang Yang; Liu Junyang; Chen Zhaobin; Tian Jinghua; Jin Xi; Liu Bo; Yang Fangzu; Tian Zhongqun [State Key Laboratory of Physical Chemistry of Solid Surfaces and Department of Chemistry, College of Chemistry and Chemical Engineering, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361005 (China); Li Xiulan; Tao Nongjian [Center for Bioelectronics and Biosensors, Biodesign Institute, Department of Electrical Engineering, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287-6206 (United States); Luo Zhongzi; Lu Miao, E-mail: zqtian@xmu.edu.cn [Micro-Electro-Mechanical Systems Research Center, Pen-Tung Sah Micro-Nano Technology Institute, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361005 (China)

2011-07-08

This work presents a study of Au conductance quantization based on a combined electrochemical deposition and mechanically controllable break junction (MCBJ) method. We describe the microfabrication process and discuss improved features of our microchip structure compared to the previous one. The improved structure prolongs the available life of the microchip and also increases the success rate of the MCBJ experiment. Stepwise changes in the current were observed at the last stage of atomic point contact breakdown and conductance histograms were constructed. The evolution of 1G{sub 0} peak height in conductance histograms was used to investigate the probability of formation of an atomic point contact. It has been shown that the success rate in forming an atomic point contact can be improved by decreasing the stretching speed and the degree that the two electrodes are brought into contact. The repeated breakdown and formation over thousands of cycles led to a distinctive increase of 1G{sub 0} peak height in the conductance histograms, and this increased probability of forming a single atomic point contact is discussed.

Conductance histogram evolution of an EC-MCBJ fabricated Au atomic point contact

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yang Yang; Liu Junyang; Chen Zhaobin; Tian Jinghua; Jin Xi; Liu Bo; Yang Fangzu; Tian Zhongqun; Li Xiulan; Tao Nongjian; Luo Zhongzi; Lu Miao

2011-01-01

This work presents a study of Au conductance quantization based on a combined electrochemical deposition and mechanically controllable break junction (MCBJ) method. We describe the microfabrication process and discuss improved features of our microchip structure compared to the previous one. The improved structure prolongs the available life of the microchip and also increases the success rate of the MCBJ experiment. Stepwise changes in the current were observed at the last stage of atomic point contact breakdown and conductance histograms were constructed. The evolution of 1G 0 peak height in conductance histograms was used to investigate the probability of formation of an atomic point contact. It has been shown that the success rate in forming an atomic point contact can be improved by decreasing the stretching speed and the degree that the two electrodes are brought into contact. The repeated breakdown and formation over thousands of cycles led to a distinctive increase of 1G 0 peak height in the conductance histograms, and this increased probability of forming a single atomic point contact is discussed.

Return-to-work coordination programmes for improving return to work in workers on sick leave.

Science.gov (United States)

Vogel, Nicole; Schandelmaier, Stefan; Zumbrunn, Thomas; Ebrahim, Shanil; de Boer, Wout El; Busse, Jason W; Kunz, Regina

2017-03-30

To limit long-term sick leave and associated consequences, insurers, healthcare providers and employers provide programmes to facilitate disabled people's return to work. These programmes include a variety of coordinated and individualised interventions. Despite the increasing popularity of such programmes, their benefits remain uncertain. We conducted a systematic review to determine the long-term effectiveness of return-to-work coordination programmes compared to usual practice in workers at risk for long-term disability. To assess the effects of return-to-work coordination programmes versus usual practice for workers on sick leave or disability. We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL; 2016, Issue 11), MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL and PsycINFO up to 1 November 2016. We included randomised controlled trials (RCTs) that enrolled workers absent from work for at least four weeks and randomly assigned them to return-to-work coordination programmes or usual practice. Two review authors independently screened titles, abstracts and full-text articles for study eligibility; extracted data; and assessed risk of bias from eligible trials. We contacted authors for additional data where required. We conducted random-effects meta-analyses and used the GRADE approach to rate the quality of the evidence. We identified 14 studies from nine countries that enrolled 12,568 workers. Eleven studies focused on musculoskeletal problems, two on mental health and one on both. Most studies (11 of 14) followed workers 12 months or longer. Risk of bias was low in 10 and high in 4 studies, but findings were not sensitive to their exclusion.We found no benefits for return-to-work coordination programmes on return-to-work outcomes.For short-term follow-up of six months, we found no effect on time to return to work (hazard ratio (HR) 1.32, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.93 to 1.88, low-quality evidence), cumulative sickness absence (mean difference (MD) -16.18 work

Probability Modeling of Precipitation Extremes over Two River Basins in Northwest of China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhanling Li

2015-01-01

Full Text Available This paper is focused on the probability modeling with a range of distribution models over two inland river basins in China, together with the estimations of return levels on various return periods. Both annual and seasonal maximum precipitations (MP are investigated based on daily precipitation data at 13 stations from 1960 to 2010 in Heihe River and Shiyang River basins. Results show that GEV, Burr, and Weibull distributions provide the best fit to both annual and seasonal MP. Exponential and Pareto 2 distributions show the worst fit. The estimated return levels for spring MP show decreasing trends from the upper to the middle and then to the lower reaches totally speaking. Summer MP approximates to annual MP both in the quantity and in the spatial distributions. Autumn MP shows a little higher value in the estimated return levels than Spring MP, while keeping consistent with spring MP in the spatial distribution. It is also found that the estimated return levels for annual MP derived from various distributions differ by 22%, 36%, and 53% on average at 20-year, 50-year, and 100-year return periods, respectively.

Linker-dependent Junction Formation Probability in Single-Molecule Junctions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yoo, Pil Sun; Kim, Taekyeong [HankukUniversity of Foreign Studies, Yongin (Korea, Republic of)

2015-01-15

We compare the junction formation probabilities of single-molecule junctions with different linker molecules by using a scanning tunneling microscope-based break-junction technique. We found that the junction formation probability varies as SH > SMe > NH2 for the benzene backbone molecule with different types of anchoring groups, through quantitative statistical analysis. These results are attributed to different bonding forces according to the linker groups formed with Au atoms in the electrodes, which is consistent with previous works. Our work allows a better understanding of the contact chemistry in the metal.molecule junction for future molecular electronic devices.

Improving return-to-work after childbirth: design of the Mom@Work study, a randomised controlled trial and cohort study.

Science.gov (United States)

Stomp-van den Berg, Suzanne G M; van Poppel, Mireille N M; Hendriksen, Ingrid J M; Bruinvels, David J; Uegaki, Kimi; de Bruijne, Martine C; van Mechelen, Willem

2007-03-29

Many women suffer from health problems after giving birth, which can lead to sick leave. About 30% of Dutch workers are on sick leave after maternity leave. Structural contact of supervisors with employees on maternity leave, supported by early medical advice of occupational physicians, may increase the chances of return-to-work after maternity leave. In addition, to understand the process of sick leave and return-to-work after childbirth it is important to gain insight into which factors hinder return-to-work after childbirth, as well, as which prognostic factors lead to the development of postpartum health complaints. In this paper, the design of the Mom@Work study is described. The Mom@Work study is simultaneously a randomised controlled trial and a cohort study. Pregnant women working for at least 12 hours a week at one of the 15 participating companies are eligible to participate. The supervisors of these pregnant employees are randomised at 35 weeks pregnancy into the intervention group or control group. During maternity leave, supervisors in the intervention group contact their employee six weeks after delivery using a structured interview. When employees do not expect to return to their jobs at the end of their scheduled maternity leave due to health problems, the supervisor offers early support of the occupational physician. Supervisors in the control group have no structural contact with their employees during maternity leave. Measurements take place at 30 weeks pregnancy and at 6, 12, 24 and 52 weeks postpartum. In addition, cost data are collected. For the RCT, primary outcome measures are sick leave and return-to-work, and secondary outcome measures are costs, health, satisfaction with intervention and global feelings of recovery. Outcome measures for the cohort are pregnancy-related pelvic girdle pain, fatigue and depression. Finally, a number of prognostic factors for return-to-work and for the development of complaints will be measured. The Mom

Improving return-to-work after childbirth: design of the Mom@Work study, a randomised controlled trial and cohort study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bruinvels David J

2007-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Many women suffer from health problems after giving birth, which can lead to sick leave. About 30% of Dutch workers are on sick leave after maternity leave. Structural contact of supervisors with employees on maternity leave, supported by early medical advice of occupational physicians, may increase the chances of return-to-work after maternity leave. In addition, to understand the process of sick leave and return-to-work after childbirth it is important to gain insight into which factors hinder return-to-work after childbirth, as well, as which prognostic factors lead to the development of postpartum health complaints. In this paper, the design of the Mom@Work study is described. Methods The Mom@Work study is simultaneously a randomised controlled trial and a cohort study. Pregnant women working for at least 12 hours a week at one of the 15 participating companies are eligible to participate. The supervisors of these pregnant employees are randomised at 35 weeks pregnancy into the intervention group or control group. During maternity leave, supervisors in the intervention group contact their employee six weeks after delivery using a structured interview. When employees do not expect to return to their jobs at the end of their scheduled maternity leave due to health problems, the supervisor offers early support of the occupational physician. Supervisors in the control group have no structural contact with their employees during maternity leave. Measurements take place at 30 weeks pregnancy and at 6, 12, 24 and 52 weeks postpartum. In addition, cost data are collected. For the RCT, primary outcome measures are sick leave and return-to-work, and secondary outcome measures are costs, health, satisfaction with intervention and global feelings of recovery. Outcome measures for the cohort are pregnancy-related pelvic girdle pain, fatigue and depression. Finally, a number of prognostic factors for return-to-work and for the

Mean field theory of epidemic spreading with effective contacts on networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wu, Qingchu; Chen, Shufang

2015-01-01

We present a general approach to the analysis of the susceptible-infected-susceptible model with effective contacts on networks, where each susceptible node will be infected with a certain probability only for effective contacts. In the network, each node has a given effective contact number. By using the one-vertex heterogenous mean-field (HMF) approximation and the pair HMF approximation, we obtain conditions for epidemic outbreak on degree-uncorrelated networks. Our results suggest that the epidemic threshold is closely related to the effective contact and its distribution. However, when the effective contact is only dependent of node degree, the epidemic threshold can be established by the degree distribution of networks.

Computing Tutte polynomials of contact networks in classrooms

Science.gov (United States)

Hincapié, Doracelly; Ospina, Juan

2013-05-01

Objective: The topological complexity of contact networks in classrooms and the potential transmission of an infectious disease were analyzed by sex and age. Methods: The Tutte polynomials, some topological properties and the number of spanning trees were used to algebraically compute the topological complexity. Computations were made with the Maple package GraphTheory. Published data of mutually reported social contacts within a classroom taken from primary school, consisting of children in the age ranges of 4-5, 7-8 and 10-11, were used. Results: The algebraic complexity of the Tutte polynomial and the probability of disease transmission increases with age. The contact networks are not bipartite graphs, gender segregation was observed especially in younger children. Conclusion: Tutte polynomials are tools to understand the topology of the contact networks and to derive numerical indexes of such topologies. It is possible to establish relationships between the Tutte polynomial of a given contact network and the potential transmission of an infectious disease within such network

Naive Probability: Model-based Estimates of Unique Events

Science.gov (United States)

2014-05-04

of inference. Argument and Computation, 1–17, iFirst. Khemlani, S., & Johnson-Laird, P.N. (2012b). Theories of the syllogism: A meta -analysis...is the probability that… 1 space tourism will achieve widespread popularity in the next 50 years? advances in material science will lead to the... governments dedicate more resources to contacting extra-terrestrials? 8 the United States adopts an open border policy of universal acceptance? English is

Erosividade das chuvas associada a períodos de retorno e probabilidade de ocorrência no estado do Rio de Janeiro Rainfall erosivity associated to return periods and occurrence probability in the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Roriz Luciano Machado

2013-04-01

Full Text Available O conhecimento da erosividade das chuvas associada à probabilidade de ocorrência e ao período de retorno pode contribuir para o planejamento conservacionista de uma região, em médio e longo prazo. A fim de gerar informações para melhor utilizar modelos e controle da erosão, dados de chuvas de 30 séries pluviográficas e pluviométricas, abrangendo 25 municípios, entre 1933 e 2006, foram estudados quanto à adequação das séries e do cálculo da probabilidade de ocorrência teórica (P e período de retorno (T da erosividade das chuvas (EI30 e KE>25, para o Estado do Rio de Janeiro. Foi feita a espacialização do potencial erosivo associado aos períodos de retorno de 2, 5, 10, 20, 50 e 100 anos para todo o Estado. A erosividade anual média (EI30 ou fator R da USLE para qualquer localidade no Estado do Rio de Janeiro pode ser igualada ou superada pelo menos uma vez, em média, em um período de 1,8 a 2,1 anos, com faixa de 48,5 a 54,9 % de probabilidade de ocorrência teórica. As localidades que apresentam maior erosividade associada aos períodos de retorno estão situadas nas mesorregiões Metropolitanas e em partes das mesorregiões Sul e Centro Fluminense. Foi possível identificar de oito a 12 regiões homogêneas, quanto à distribuição espacial da erosividade associada aos períodos de retorno de dois para 100 anos no Estado. De modo geral, a maior variação da distribuição espacial da erosividade apresenta-se na faixa de período de retorno de dois a cinco anos.Knowledge on rainfall erosivity associated to occurrence probability and return periods can contribute to conservation planning in the medium and long term. With the objective of generating information for a better use of medium and long-term erosion models and erosion control, rainfall data of 30 pluviometric and pluviographic data sets from 25 cities ranging from 1933 to 2006 were studied in terms of adjustment of data sets, calculation of the probability of

SECTORAL RISK AND RETURN FOR COMPANIES IN ROMANIA

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Anis Cecilia

2012-12-01

Full Text Available probability that cash flows or return will vary from expectations. Standard corporate finance theory supposes that a company chooses a capital structure that maximizes company value. A fundamental idea in finance is the relationship between risk and return. The greater the amount of risk that an investor is willing to take on, the greater the potential return. The reason for this is that investors need to be compensated for taking on additional risk. Why put capital at significant risk for a return that is no higher than the return on government bonds? Or expect higher than averages returns from low-risk activities? It is impossible to separate measuring the performance of a company from the risks that the management takes to achieve it.In most aspects of company operations, risk assessment plays a different but equally important, role. It is an integral part of informed decision taking in achieving performance. Risk assessment is involved from the highest level in strategic choices about what activities to undertake, what assets to buy or what markets to serve all the way to detailed operational decisions about whether to accept payment in foreign currencies and the adequacy of safety measures in the workplace. It plays a part whether or not an organization is aware of managing risk and many managers feel that their instinct and judgment are enough – a behavior risk. The danger is that this leaves company risk unplanned and unmanaged. This paper proposes a framework where we realized a study cases: we test if return on assets and return on equity has influence on the risk, both on long and short term. For this purposes, we conduct an empirical research that covers 59 selected companies traded at the Bucharest Stock Exchange within the time period 1999-2010. For this study our results reveal that dynamic global risk can be associated to a low intensity with total assets performance of the company’s. Investments efficiency and the

Strategy evolution driven by switching probabilities in structured multi-agent systems

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Jianlei; Chen, Zengqiang; Li, Zhiqi

2017-10-01

Evolutionary mechanism driving the commonly seen cooperation among unrelated individuals is puzzling. Related models for evolutionary games on graphs traditionally assume that players imitate their successful neighbours with higher benefits. Notably, an implicit assumption here is that players are always able to acquire the required pay-off information. To relax this restrictive assumption, a contact-based model has been proposed, where switching probabilities between strategies drive the strategy evolution. However, the explicit and quantified relation between a player's switching probability for her strategies and the number of her neighbours remains unknown. This is especially a key point in heterogeneously structured system, where players may differ in the numbers of their neighbours. Focusing on this, here we present an augmented model by introducing an attenuation coefficient and evaluate its influence on the evolution dynamics. Results show that the individual influence on others is negatively correlated with the contact numbers specified by the network topologies. Results further provide the conditions under which the coexisting strategies can be calculated analytically.

The combined diagnosis of allergic and irritant contact dermatitis in a retrospective cohort of 1000 consecutive patients with occupational contact dermatitis.

Science.gov (United States)

Schwensen, Jakob F; Menné, Torkil; Johansen, Jeanne D

2014-12-01

The diagnosis of combined allergic and irritant contact dermatitis is an accepted subdiagnosis for hand dermatitis, and it is often considered in a patient with contact dermatitis, a positive and relevant patch test result, and wet work exposure. We therefore hypothesize that it is arbitrary for wet work exposure to be taken into consideration in a patient with newly diagnosed relevant contact allergy. Furthermore, an overestimation of the diagnosis will probably occur if the criteria for wet work exposure are applied correctly, as many occupations have an element of wet work. To find the statistically expected number of combined allergic and irritant contact dermatitis cases in 1000 patients, and to evaluate the diagnostic criteria for the diagnosis. One thousand consecutive patients with occupational contact dermatitis from a hospital unit in Denmark were assessed. The expected number of cases with the diagnosis of combined allergic and irritant contact dermatitis was 0.33%, as compared with the observed number of 6.4%. Females occupied in wet occupations were often diagnosed with combined allergic and irritant contact dermatitis (p contact dermatitis should be used critically to avoid misclassification, and possible criteria for the diagnosis are proposed. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Numerical analysis for finite-range multitype stochastic contact financial market dynamic systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yang, Ge; Wang, Jun; Fang, Wen

2015-01-01

In an attempt to reproduce and study the dynamics of financial markets, a random agent-based financial price model is developed and investigated by the finite-range multitype contact dynamic system, in which the interaction and dispersal of different types of investment attitudes in a stock market are imitated by viruses spreading. With different parameters of birth rates and finite-range, the normalized return series are simulated by Monte Carlo simulation method and numerical studied by power-law distribution analysis and autocorrelation analysis. To better understand the nonlinear dynamics of the return series, a q-order autocorrelation function and a multi-autocorrelation function are also defined in this work. The comparisons of statistical behaviors of return series from the agent-based model and the daily historical market returns of Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index indicate that the proposed model is a reasonable qualitative explanation for the price formation process of stock market systems

Numerical analysis for finite-range multitype stochastic contact financial market dynamic systems

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Ge; Wang, Jun; Fang, Wen

2015-04-01

In an attempt to reproduce and study the dynamics of financial markets, a random agent-based financial price model is developed and investigated by the finite-range multitype contact dynamic system, in which the interaction and dispersal of different types of investment attitudes in a stock market are imitated by viruses spreading. With different parameters of birth rates and finite-range, the normalized return series are simulated by Monte Carlo simulation method and numerical studied by power-law distribution analysis and autocorrelation analysis. To better understand the nonlinear dynamics of the return series, a q-order autocorrelation function and a multi-autocorrelation function are also defined in this work. The comparisons of statistical behaviors of return series from the agent-based model and the daily historical market returns of Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index indicate that the proposed model is a reasonable qualitative explanation for the price formation process of stock market systems.

Numerical analysis for finite-range multitype stochastic contact financial market dynamic systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yang, Ge; Wang, Jun [School of Science, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044 (China); Fang, Wen, E-mail: fangwen@bjtu.edu.cn [School of Economics and Management, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044 (China)

2015-04-15

In an attempt to reproduce and study the dynamics of financial markets, a random agent-based financial price model is developed and investigated by the finite-range multitype contact dynamic system, in which the interaction and dispersal of different types of investment attitudes in a stock market are imitated by viruses spreading. With different parameters of birth rates and finite-range, the normalized return series are simulated by Monte Carlo simulation method and numerical studied by power-law distribution analysis and autocorrelation analysis. To better understand the nonlinear dynamics of the return series, a q-order autocorrelation function and a multi-autocorrelation function are also defined in this work. The comparisons of statistical behaviors of return series from the agent-based model and the daily historical market returns of Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index indicate that the proposed model is a reasonable qualitative explanation for the price formation process of stock market systems.

Contact mechanics: contact area and interfacial separation from small contact to full contact

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yang, C; Persson, B N J

2008-01-01

We present a molecular dynamics study of the contact between a rigid solid with a randomly rough surface and an elastic block with a flat surface. The numerical calculations mainly focus on the contact area and the interfacial separation from small contact (low load) to full contact (high load). For a small load the contact area varies linearly with the load and the interfacial separation depends logarithmically on the load. For a high load the contact area approaches the nominal contact area (i.e. complete contact), and the interfacial separation approaches zero. The numerical results have been compared with analytical theory and experimental results. They are in good agreement with each other. The present findings may be very important for soft solids, e.g. rubber, or for very smooth surfaces, where complete contact can be reached at moderately high loads without plastic deformation of the solids

Cytologic diagnosis: expression of probability by clinical pathologists.

Science.gov (United States)

Christopher, Mary M; Hotz, Christine S

2004-01-01

Clinical pathologists use descriptive terms or modifiers to express the probability or likelihood of a cytologic diagnosis. Words are imprecise in meaning, however, and may be used and interpreted differently by pathologists and clinicians. The goals of this study were to 1) assess the frequency of use of 18 modifiers, 2) determine the probability of a positive diagnosis implied by the modifiers, 3) identify preferred modifiers for different levels of probability, 4) ascertain the importance of factors that affect expression of diagnostic certainty, and 5) evaluate differences based on gender, employment, and experience. We surveyed 202 clinical pathologists who were board-certified by the American College of Veterinary Pathologists (Clinical Pathology). Surveys were distributed in October 2001 and returned by e-mail, fax, or surface mail over a 2-month period. Results were analyzed by parametric and nonparametric tests. Survey response rate was 47.5% (n = 96) and primarily included clinical pathologists at veterinary schools (n = 58) and diagnostic laboratories (n = 31). Eleven of 18 terms were used "often" or "sometimes" by >/= 50% of respondents. Broad variability was found in the probability assigned to each term, especially those with median values of 75 to 90%. Preferred modifiers for 7 numerical probabilities ranging from 0 to 100% included 68 unique terms; however, a set of 10 terms was used by >/= 50% of respondents. Cellularity and quality of the sample, experience of the pathologist, and implications of the diagnosis were the most important factors affecting the expression of probability. Because of wide discrepancy in the implied likelihood of a diagnosis using words, defined terminology and controlled vocabulary may be useful in improving communication and the quality of data in cytology reporting.

Dynamics of social contagions with limited contact capacity.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Wei; Shu, Panpan; Zhu, Yu-Xiao; Tang, Ming; Zhang, Yi-Cheng

2015-10-01

Individuals are always limited by some inelastic resources, such as time and energy, which restrict them to dedicate to social interaction and limit their contact capacities. Contact capacity plays an important role in dynamics of social contagions, which so far has eluded theoretical analysis. In this paper, we first propose a non-Markovian model to understand the effects of contact capacity on social contagions, in which each adopted individual can only contact and transmit the information to a finite number of neighbors. We then develop a heterogeneous edge-based compartmental theory for this model, and a remarkable agreement with simulations is obtained. Through theory and simulations, we find that enlarging the contact capacity makes the network more fragile to behavior spreading. Interestingly, we find that both the continuous and discontinuous dependence of the final adoption size on the information transmission probability can arise. There is a crossover phenomenon between the two types of dependence. More specifically, the crossover phenomenon can be induced by enlarging the contact capacity only when the degree exponent is above a critical degree exponent, while the final behavior adoption size always grows continuously for any contact capacity when degree exponent is below the critical degree exponent.

The roles of the trading time risks on stock investment return and risks in stock price crashes

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Jiang-Cheng; Dong, Zhi-Wei; Yang, Guo-Hui; Long, Chao

2017-03-01

The roles of the trading time risks (TTRs) on stock investment return and risks are investigated in the condition of stock price crashes with Hushen300 data (CSI300) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (ˆDJI), respectively. In order to describe the TTR, we employ the escape time that the stock price drops from the maximum to minimum value in a data window length (DWL). After theoretical and empirical research on probability density function of return, the results in both ˆDJI and CSI300 indicate that: (i) As increasing DWL, the expectation of returns and its stability are weakened. (ii) An optimal TTR is related to a maximum return and minimum risk of stock investment in stock price crashes.

A qualitative study investigating the barriers to returning to work for breastfeeding mothers in Ireland.

Science.gov (United States)

Desmond, Deirdre; Meaney, Sarah

2016-01-01

The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends that mothers exclusively breastfeed for the first 6 months of an infant's life. In Ireland, currently paid maternity leave is 26 weeks and the expectant mother is required by law to finish work 2 weeks before her expected delivery date. Mothers wishing to exclusively breastfeed for 6 months or longer find themselves having to take holiday leave or unpaid leave from work in order to meet the WHO's guidelines. The aim of this study is to explore women's experiences of breastfeeding after their return to work in Ireland. This study was carried out utilizing a qualitative design. Initially 25 women who returned to the workforce while continuing to breastfeed were contacted, 16 women returned consent forms and were subsequently contacted to take part in an interview. Interviews were recorded and transcribed verbatim and thematic analysis was employed to establish recurring patterns and themes throughout the interviews. Women noted that cultural attitudes in Ireland coupled with inadequate or inconsistent advice from health professionals posed the biggest challenge they had to overcome in order to achieve to 6 months exclusive breastfeeding. The findings of this study illustrate that mothers with the desire to continue to breastfeed after their return to work did so with some difficulty. Many did not disclose to their employers that they were breastfeeding and did not make enquiries about being facilitated to continue to breastfeed after their return to the workplace. The perceived lack of support from their employers as well as embarrassment about their breastfeeding status meant many women concealed that they were breastfeeding after their return to the workplace. While it has been suggested that WHO guidelines for exclusive breastfeeding for 6 months may be unattainable for many women due to work commitments, a different problem exists in Ireland. Mothers struggle to overcome cultural and societal obstacles coupled

Measuring social contacts in the emergency department.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Douglas W Lowery-North

Full Text Available Infectious individuals in an emergency department (ED bring substantial risks of cross infection. Data about the complex social and spatial structure of interpersonal contacts in the ED will aid construction of biologically plausible transmission risk models that can guide cross infection control.We sought to determine the number and duration of contacts among patients and staff in a large, busy ED. This prospective study was conducted between 1 July 2009 and 30 June 2010. Two 12-hour shifts per week were randomly selected for study. The study was conducted in the ED of an urban hospital. There were 81 shifts in the planned random sample of 104 (78% with usable contact data, during which there were 9183 patient encounters. Of these, 6062 (66% were approached to participate, of which 4732 (78% agreed. Over the course of the year, 88 staff members participated (84%. A radiofrequency identification (RFID system was installed and the ED divided into 89 distinct zones structured so copresence of two individuals in any zone implied a very high probability of contact <1 meter apart in space. During study observation periods, patients and staff were given RFID tags to wear. Contact events were recorded. These were further broken down with respect to the nature of the contacts, i.e., patient with patient, patient with staff, and staff with staff. 293,171 contact events were recorded, with a median of 22 contact events and 9 contacts with distinct individuals per participant per shift. Staff-staff interactions were more numerous and longer than patient-patient or patient-staff interactions.We used RFID to quantify contacts between patients and staff in a busy ED. These results are useful for studies of the spread of infections. By understanding contact patterns most important in potential transmission, more effective prevention strategies may be implemented.

Probing into frictional contact dynamics by ultrasound and electrical simulations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Changshan Jin

2014-12-01

Full Text Available Friction arises in the interface of friction pair, and therefore, it is difficult to detect it. Ultrasonic means, as a NDT, is the correct alternative. This paper introduces a means of detecting dynamic contact and an interpretation of behaviors of dry friction. It has been determined that frictional surfaces have a specific property of dynamic response hardening (DRH. Dynamic response forces and oscillation arise during static–kinetic transition process. While the contact zone of sliding surfaces appears “hard” in motion, it appears “soft” at rest. Consequently, a separation of the surfaces occurs and the real area of contact is decreased as sliding velocity increases. This is the cause of F–v descent phenomenon. When the friction comes to a rest, the remaining process of DRH and micro-oscillation do not disappear instantaneously, instead they gradually return to their original static position. The contact area, therefore, is increased by rest period (F–T ascent characteristics. Based on analogies between a solid unit (η–m–k and an R-L-C circuit, the DRH is demonstrated by electrical simulations.

Computing the distribution of return levels of extreme warm temperatures for future climate projections

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pausader, M.; Parey, S.; Nogaj, M. [EDF/R and D, Chatou Cedex (France); Bernie, D. [Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom)

2012-03-15

In order to take into account uncertainties in the future climate projections there is a growing demand for probabilistic projections of climate change. This paper presents a methodology for producing such a probabilistic analysis of future temperature extremes. The 20- and 100-years return levels are obtained from that of the normalized variable and the changes in mean and standard deviation given by climate models for the desired future periods. Uncertainty in future change of these extremes is quantified using a multi-model ensemble and a perturbed physics ensemble. The probability density functions of future return levels are computed at a representative location from the joint probability distribution of mean and standard deviation changes given by the two combined ensembles of models. For the studied location, the 100-years return level at the end of the century is lower than 41 C with an 80% confidence. Then, as the number of model simulations is low to compute a reliable distribution, two techniques proposed in the literature (local pattern scaling and ANOVA) have been used to infer the changes in mean and standard deviation for the combinations of RCM and GCM which have not been run. The ANOVA technique leads to better results for the reconstruction of the mean changes, whereas the two methods fail to correctly infer the changes in standard deviation. As standard deviation change has a major impact on return level change, there is a need to improve the models and the different techniques regarding the variance changes. (orig.)

Return to Work After Temporary Disability Pension in Finland.

Science.gov (United States)

Laaksonen, Mikko; Gould, Raija

2015-09-01

When it is possible that the employee's work ability can be restored through treatment or rehabilitation, disability pension in Finland is granted for a fixed period. We examined which factors are associated with return to work (RTW) after such temporary disability pension. The study included all Finnish residents whose temporary disability pension from the earnings-related pension system started in 2008 (N = 10,269). Competing risks regression analysis was applied to examine register-based determinants for RTW after temporary disability pension due to mental disorders, musculoskeletal diseases, other diseases, and injury over a 4-year follow-up period. The overall cumulative incidence of RTW was 25%. RTW was more probable after temporary disability pension due to injury and musculoskeletal diseases and less probable after temporary disability pension due to mental disorders. Younger age and higher education increased RTW but differences between genders, private and public sector employees, and occupational classes were relatively small. The probability of RTW was higher among those who were employed before their temporary disability pension (subhazard ratio in multivariate analysis 2.41 (95% CI 2.13-2.72) and among the 9% who participated in vocational rehabilitation during their pension [SHR 2.10 (95% CI 1.90-2.31)]. With some exceptions, the results were fairly similar for all diagnostic causes of temporary disability pension. Return to work after temporary disability pension was relatively uncommon. Nevertheless, in all diagnostic groups RTW continued for the whole follow-up period. The low educated and those not employed before temporary disability pension need more support in their RTW. The strong association between vocational rehabilitation and RTW suggests that increasing rehabilitation among those with impaired work ability may promote RTW.

Shot Noise Suppression in a Quantum Point Contact with Short Channel Length

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jeong, Heejun

2015-01-01

An experimental study on the current shot noise of a quantum point contact with short channel length is reported. The experimentally measured maximum energy level spacing between the ground and the first excited state of the device reached up to 7.5 meV, probably due to the hard wall confinement by using shallow electron gas and sharp point contact geometry. The two-dimensional non-equilibrium shot noise contour map shows noise suppression characteristics in a wide range of bias voltage. Fano factor analysis indicates spin-polarized transport through a short quantum point contact. (paper)

An Efficient Approach for Mars Sample Return Using Emerging Commercial Capabilities.

Science.gov (United States)

Gonzales, Andrew A; Stoker, Carol R

2016-06-01

Vehicle performs a Trans Earth Injection burn. Once near Earth, the Earth Return Vehicle performs Earth and lunar swing-bys and is placed into a Lunar Trailing Orbit - an Earth orbit, at lunar distance. A retrieval mission then performs a rendezvous with the Earth Return Vehicle, retrieves the sample container, and breaks the chain of contact with Mars by transferring the sample into a sterile and secure container. With the sample contained, the retrieving spacecraft makes a controlled Earth re-entry preventing any unintended release of Martian materials into the Earth's biosphere. The mission can start in any one of three Earth to Mars launch opportunities, beginning in 2022.

Estimation of Partial Safety Factors and Target Failure Probability Based on Cost Optimization of Rubble Mound Breakwaters

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kim, Seung-Woo; Suh, Kyung-Duck; Burcharth, Hans F.

2010-01-01

The breakwaters are designed by considering the cost optimization because a human risk is seldom considered. Most breakwaters, however, were constructed without considering the cost optimization. In this study, the optimum return period, target failure probability and the partial safety factors...

Improvement of Metal-Graphene Ohmic Contact Resistance in Bilayer Epitaxial Graphene Devices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

He Ze-Zhao; Yang Ke-Wu; Yu Cui; Li Jia; Liu Qing-Bin; Lu Wei-Li; Feng Zhi-Hong; Cai Shu-Jun

2015-01-01

We report on an improved metal-graphene ohmic contact in bilayer epitaxial graphene on a SiC substrate with contact resistance below 0.1 ω·mm. Monolayer and bilayer epitaxial graphenes are prepared on a 4H-SiC substrate in this work. Their contact resistances are measured by a transfer length method. An improved photoresist-free device fabrication method is used and is compared with the conventional device fabrication method. Compared with the monolayer graphene, the contact resistance R c of bilayer graphene improves from an average of 0.24 ω·mm to 0.1 ω·mm. Ohmic contact formation mechanism analysis by Landauer's approach reveals that the obtained low ohmic contact resistance in bilayer epitaxial graphene is due to their high carrier density, high carrier transmission probability, and p-type doping introduced by contact metal Au. (paper)

Generalized Probability-Probability Plots

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mushkudiani, N.A.; Einmahl, J.H.J.

2004-01-01

We introduce generalized Probability-Probability (P-P) plots in order to study the one-sample goodness-of-fit problem and the two-sample problem, for real valued data.These plots, that are constructed by indexing with the class of closed intervals, globally preserve the properties of classical P-P

Quantum Probabilities as Behavioral Probabilities

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vyacheslav I. Yukalov

2017-03-01

Full Text Available We demonstrate that behavioral probabilities of human decision makers share many common features with quantum probabilities. This does not imply that humans are some quantum objects, but just shows that the mathematics of quantum theory is applicable to the description of human decision making. The applicability of quantum rules for describing decision making is connected with the nontrivial process of making decisions in the case of composite prospects under uncertainty. Such a process involves deliberations of a decision maker when making a choice. In addition to the evaluation of the utilities of considered prospects, real decision makers also appreciate their respective attractiveness. Therefore, human choice is not based solely on the utility of prospects, but includes the necessity of resolving the utility-attraction duality. In order to justify that human consciousness really functions similarly to the rules of quantum theory, we develop an approach defining human behavioral probabilities as the probabilities determined by quantum rules. We show that quantum behavioral probabilities of humans do not merely explain qualitatively how human decisions are made, but they predict quantitative values of the behavioral probabilities. Analyzing a large set of empirical data, we find good quantitative agreement between theoretical predictions and observed experimental data.

Multiregion, multigroup collision probability method with white boundary condition for light water reactor thermalization calculations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ozgener, B.; Ozgener, H.A.

2005-01-01

A multiregion, multigroup collision probability method with white boundary condition is developed for thermalization calculations of light water moderated reactors. Hydrogen scatterings are treated by Nelkin's kernel while scatterings from other nuclei are assumed to obey the free-gas scattering kernel. The isotropic return (white) boundary condition is applied directly by using the appropriate collision probabilities. Comparisons with alternate numerical methods show the validity of the present formulation. Comparisons with some experimental results indicate that the present formulation is capable of calculating disadvantage factors which are closer to the experimental results than alternative methods

Probability Aggregates in Probability Answer Set Programming

OpenAIRE

Saad, Emad

2013-01-01

Probability answer set programming is a declarative programming that has been shown effective for representing and reasoning about a variety of probability reasoning tasks. However, the lack of probability aggregates, e.g. {\\em expected values}, in the language of disjunctive hybrid probability logic programs (DHPP) disallows the natural and concise representation of many interesting problems. In this paper, we extend DHPP to allow arbitrary probability aggregates. We introduce two types of p...

Schottky contacts to polar and nonpolar n-type GaN

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Hogyoung [Hanbat National University, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Phark, Soohyon [Max-Planck-Institut fur Mikrostrukturphysik, Halle (Germany); Song, Keunman [Korea Advanced Nano Fab Center, Suwon (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Dongwook [Ewha Woman' s University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

2012-01-15

Using the current-voltage measurements, we observed the barrier heights of c-plane GaN in Pt and Au Schottky contacts to be higher than those of a-plane GaN. However, the barrier height of c-plane GaN was lower than that of a-plane GaN in the Ti Schottky contacts. The N/Ga ratio calculated by integrating the X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) spectra of Ga 3d and N 1s core levels showed that c-plane GaN induced more Ga vacancies near the interface than a-plane GaN in the Ti Schottky contacts, reducing the effective barrier height through an enhancement of the tunneling probability.

26 CFR 301.6103(h)(2)-1 - Disclosure of returns and return information (including taxpayer return information) to and by...

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... administration. 301.6103(h)(2)-1 Section 301.6103(h)(2)-1 Internal Revenue INTERNAL REVENUE SERVICE, DEPARTMENT... Returns Returns and Records § 301.6103(h)(2)-1 Disclosure of returns and return information (including..., shall, to the extent provided by section 6103(h)(2) (A), (B), and (C) and subject to the requirements of...

Contact Patterns in a High School: A Comparison between Data Collected Using Wearable Sensors, Contact Diaries and Friendship Surveys.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rossana Mastrandrea

Full Text Available Given their importance in shaping social networks and determining how information or transmissible diseases propagate in a population, interactions between individuals are the subject of many data collection efforts. To this aim, different methods are commonly used, ranging from diaries and surveys to decentralised infrastructures based on wearable sensors. These methods have each advantages and limitations but are rarely compared in a given setting. Moreover, as surveys targeting friendship relations might suffer less from memory biases than contact diaries, it is interesting to explore how actual contact patterns occurring in day-to-day life compare with friendship relations and with online social links. Here we make progresses in these directions by leveraging data collected in a French high school and concerning (i face-to-face contacts measured by two concurrent methods, namely wearable sensors and contact diaries, (ii self-reported friendship surveys, and (iii online social links. We compare the resulting data sets and find that most short contacts are not reported in diaries while long contacts have a large reporting probability, and that the durations of contacts tend to be overestimated in the diaries. Moreover, measured contacts corresponding to reported friendship can have durations of any length but all long contacts do correspond to a reported friendship. On the contrary, online links that are not also reported in the friendship survey correspond to short face-to-face contacts, highlighting the difference of nature between reported friendships and online links. Diaries and surveys suffer moreover from a low sampling rate, as many students did not fill them, showing that the sensor-based platform had a higher acceptability. We also show that, despite the biases of diaries and surveys, the overall structure of the contact network, as quantified by the mixing patterns between classes, is correctly captured by both networks of self

Contact Patterns in a High School: A Comparison between Data Collected Using Wearable Sensors, Contact Diaries and Friendship Surveys.

Science.gov (United States)

Mastrandrea, Rossana; Fournet, Julie; Barrat, Alain

2015-01-01

Given their importance in shaping social networks and determining how information or transmissible diseases propagate in a population, interactions between individuals are the subject of many data collection efforts. To this aim, different methods are commonly used, ranging from diaries and surveys to decentralised infrastructures based on wearable sensors. These methods have each advantages and limitations but are rarely compared in a given setting. Moreover, as surveys targeting friendship relations might suffer less from memory biases than contact diaries, it is interesting to explore how actual contact patterns occurring in day-to-day life compare with friendship relations and with online social links. Here we make progresses in these directions by leveraging data collected in a French high school and concerning (i) face-to-face contacts measured by two concurrent methods, namely wearable sensors and contact diaries, (ii) self-reported friendship surveys, and (iii) online social links. We compare the resulting data sets and find that most short contacts are not reported in diaries while long contacts have a large reporting probability, and that the durations of contacts tend to be overestimated in the diaries. Moreover, measured contacts corresponding to reported friendship can have durations of any length but all long contacts do correspond to a reported friendship. On the contrary, online links that are not also reported in the friendship survey correspond to short face-to-face contacts, highlighting the difference of nature between reported friendships and online links. Diaries and surveys suffer moreover from a low sampling rate, as many students did not fill them, showing that the sensor-based platform had a higher acceptability. We also show that, despite the biases of diaries and surveys, the overall structure of the contact network, as quantified by the mixing patterns between classes, is correctly captured by both networks of self-reported contacts and

Encounters between workers sick-listed with common mental disorders and return-to-work stakeholders. Does workers' gender matter?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Nielsen, Maj Britt D.; Madsen, Ida E. H.; Bultmann, Ute; Christensen, Ulla; Diderichsen, Finn; Rugulies, Reiner

Introduction: The aims of this paper were to examine how disabled workers assess encounters with return-to-work (RTW) stakeholders during sickness absence due to common mental disorders (CMD) and to investigate gender differences in these assessments. Method: Data on contact with and assessment of

Hospital Readmission among Older Adults Who Return Home with Unmet Need for ADL Disability

Science.gov (United States)

DePalma, Glen; Xu, Huiping; Covinsky, Kenneth E.; Craig, Bruce A.; Stallard, Eric; Thomas, Joseph, III.; Sands, Laura P.

2013-01-01

Purpose: This study determined whether returning to the community from a recent hospitalization with unmet activities of daily living (ADL) need was associated with probability of readmission. Methods: A total of 584 respondents to the 1994, 1999, and/or 2004 National Long-Term Care Surveys (NLTCS) who were hospitalized within 90 days prior to the…

Systematic variations in multi-spectral lidar representations of canopy height profiles and gap probability

Science.gov (United States)

Chasmer, L.; Hopkinson, C.; Gynan, C.; Mahoney, C.; Sitar, M.

2015-12-01

Airborne and terrestrial lidar are increasingly used in forest attribute modeling for carbon, ecosystem and resource monitoring. The near infra-red wavelength at 1064nm has been utilised most in airborne applications due to, for example, diode manufacture costs, surface reflectance and eye safety. Foliage reflects well at 1064nm and most of the literature on airborne lidar forest structure is based on data from this wavelength. However, lidar systems also operate at wavelengths further from the visible spectrum (e.g. 1550nm) for eye safety reasons. This corresponds to a water absorption band and can be sensitive to attenuation if surfaces contain moisture. Alternatively, some systems operate in the visible range (e.g. 532nm) for specialised applications requiring simultaneous mapping of terrestrial and bathymetric surfaces. All these wavelengths provide analogous 3D canopy structure reconstructions and thus offer the potential to be combined for spatial comparisons or temporal monitoring. However, a systematic comparison of wavelength-dependent foliage profile and gap probability (index of transmittance) is needed. Here we report on two multispectral lidar missions carried out in 2013 and 2015 over conifer, deciduous and mixed stands in Ontario, Canada. The first used separate lidar sensors acquiring comparable data at three wavelengths, while the second used a single sensor with 3 integrated laser systems. In both cases, wavelenegths sampled were 532nm, 1064nm and 1550nm. The experiment revealed significant differences in proportions of returns at ground level, the vertical foliage distribution and gap probability across wavelengths. Canopy attenuation was greatest at 532nm due to photosynthetic plant tissue absorption. Relative to 1064nm, foliage was systematically undersampled at the 10% to 60% height percentiles at both 1550nm and 532nm (this was confirmed with coincident terrestrial lidar data). When using all returns to calculate gap probability, all

Arthroscopic management of the contact athlete with instability.

Science.gov (United States)

Harris, Joshua D; Romeo, Anthony A

2013-10-01

The shoulder is the most commonly dislocated joint in the body, with a greater incidence of instability in contact and collision athletes. In contact and collision athletes that have failed nonoperative treatment, the most important factors to consider when planning surgery are amount of bone loss (glenoid, humeral head); patient age; and shoulder hyperlaxity. Clinical outcomes, instability recurrence rate, and return to sport rate are not significantly different between arthroscopic suture anchor and open techniques. Lateral decubitus positioning with distraction and four portal (including seven-degree and 5-o’clock positions) techniques allow for 360-degree access to the glenoid rim, with placement of at least three sutures anchors below 3 o’clock for optimal results. In patients with significant glenoid bone loss (>20%-25%, inverted pear glenoid), open bone augmentation techniques are indicated and arthroscopic techniques are contraindicated. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predictable return distributions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pedersen, Thomas Quistgaard

trace out the entire distribution. A univariate quantile regression model is used to examine stock and bond return distributions individually, while a multivariate model is used to capture their joint distribution. An empirical analysis on US data shows that certain parts of the return distributions......-of-sample analyses show that the relative accuracy of the state variables in predicting future returns varies across the distribution. A portfolio study shows that an investor with power utility can obtain economic gains by applying the empirical return distribution in portfolio decisions instead of imposing...

Convergence and divergence in leisure style among Whites and African Americans: toward an interracial contact hypothesis

Science.gov (United States)

Floyd F. Myron; Kimberly J. Shinew

1999-01-01

Drawing upon structural theory and social group perspectives, this study examined two propositions developed to explain the relationship between interracial contact and leisure preferences among African Americans and Whites. The first proposition stated that as interracial contact increases, the greater the probability of observing similarity in the leisure...

Implications of net energy-return-on-investment for a low-carbon energy transition

Science.gov (United States)

King, Lewis C.; van den Bergh, Jeroen C. J. M.

2018-04-01

Low-carbon energy transitions aim to stay within a carbon budget that limits potential climate change to 2 °C—or well below—through a substantial growth in renewable energy sources alongside improved energy efficiency and carbon capture and storage. Current scenarios tend to overlook their low net energy returns compared to the existing fossil fuel infrastructure. Correcting from gross to net energy, we show that a low-carbon transition would probably lead to a 24-31% decline in net energy per capita by 2050, which implies a strong reversal of the recent rising trends of 0.5% per annum. Unless vast end-use efficiency savings can be achieved in the coming decades, current lifestyles might be impaired. To maintain the present net energy returns, solar and wind renewable power sources should grow two to three times faster than in other proposals. We suggest a new indicator, `energy return on carbon', to assist in maximizing the net energy from the remaining carbon budget.

Negative probability in the framework of combined probability

OpenAIRE

Burgin, Mark

2013-01-01

Negative probability has found diverse applications in theoretical physics. Thus, construction of sound and rigorous mathematical foundations for negative probability is important for physics. There are different axiomatizations of conventional probability. So, it is natural that negative probability also has different axiomatic frameworks. In the previous publications (Burgin, 2009; 2010), negative probability was mathematically formalized and rigorously interpreted in the context of extende...

A new method for estimating the probable maximum hail loss of a building portfolio based on hailfall intensity determined by radar measurements

Science.gov (United States)

Aller, D.; Hohl, R.; Mair, F.; Schiesser, H.-H.

2003-04-01

Extreme hailfall can cause massive damage to building structures. For the insurance and reinsurance industry it is essential to estimate the probable maximum hail loss of their portfolio. The probable maximum loss (PML) is usually defined with a return period of 1 in 250 years. Statistical extrapolation has a number of critical points, as historical hail loss data are usually only available from some events while insurance portfolios change over the years. At the moment, footprints are derived from historical hail damage data. These footprints (mean damage patterns) are then moved over a portfolio of interest to create scenario losses. However, damage patterns of past events are based on the specific portfolio that was damaged during that event and can be considerably different from the current spread of risks. A new method for estimating the probable maximum hail loss to a building portfolio is presented. It is shown that footprints derived from historical damages are different to footprints of hail kinetic energy calculated from radar reflectivity measurements. Based on the relationship between radar-derived hail kinetic energy and hail damage to buildings, scenario losses can be calculated. A systematic motion of the hail kinetic energy footprints over the underlying portfolio creates a loss set. It is difficult to estimate the return period of losses calculated with footprints derived from historical damages being moved around. To determine the return periods of the hail kinetic energy footprints over Switzerland, 15 years of radar measurements and 53 years of agricultural hail losses are available. Based on these data, return periods of several types of hailstorms were derived for different regions in Switzerland. The loss set is combined with the return periods of the event set to obtain an exceeding frequency curve, which can be used to derive the PML.

Bacterial adhesion forces to Ag-impregnated contact lens cases and transmission to contact lenses.

Science.gov (United States)

Qu, Wenwen; Busscher, Henk J; van der Mei, Henny C; Hooymans, Johanna M M

2013-03-01

To measure adhesion forces of Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Staphylococcus aureus, and Serratia marcescens to a rigid contact lens (CL), standard polypropylene, and Ag-impregnated lens cases using atomic force microscopy and determine bacterial transmission from lens case to CL. Adhesion forces of bacterial strains to Ag-impregnated and polypropylene lens cases and a rigid CL were measured using atomic force microscopy. Adhesion forces were used to calculate Weibull distributions, from which transmission probabilities from lens case to CL were derived. Transmission probabilities were compared with actual transmission of viable bacteria from a lens case to the CL in 0.9% NaCl and in an antimicrobial lens care solution. Bacterial transmission probabilities from polypropylene lens cases based on force analysis coincided well for all strains with actual transmission in 0.9% NaCl. Bacterial adhesion forces on Ag-impregnated lens cases were much smaller than that on polypropylene and CLs, yielding a high probability of transmission. Comparison with actual bacterial transmission indicated bacterial killing due to Ag ions during colony-forming unit transmission from an Ag-impregnated lens case, especially for P. aeruginosa. Transmission of viable bacteria from Ag-impregnated lens cases could be further decreased by use of an antimicrobial lens care solution instead of 0.9% NaCl. Bacterial transmission probabilities are higher from Ag-impregnated lens cases than from polypropylene lens cases because of small adhesion forces, but this is compensated for by enhanced bacterial killing due to Ag impregnation, especially when in combination with an antimicrobial lens care solution. This calls for a balanced combination of antimicrobial lens care solutions and surface properties of a lens case and CL.

Return-to-Work Program for Injured Workers: Factors of Successful Return to Employment.

Science.gov (United States)

Awang, Halimah; Shahabudin, Sharifah Muhairah; Mansor, Norma

2016-11-01

This study examined the factors of successful return to employment among participants in the return to work program (RTW) following work-related injury. Data were obtained from the Social Security Organization database containing 9850 injured workers who underwent RTW in 2010 to 2013. About 65% had successfully returned to employment. Significant factors of successful return include gender, employer interest, motivation, age, intervention duration, and type of injury. Male and motivated employees were more likely to return to employment compared with female and unmotivated employees, respectively. Participants from interested employers were 23.22 times more likely to return to work than those from uninterested employers, whereas participants whose intervention period exceeded 5 months were 41% less likely to return to work compared with those whose intervention period was within 3 months. Appropriate strategy and enhanced collaboration between the stakeholders would improve the proportion of successful return to employment. © 2016 APJPH.

When Does Return of Voluntary Finger Extension Occur Post-Stroke? A Prospective Cohort Study.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Caroline Winters

Full Text Available Patients without voluntary finger extension early post-stroke are suggested to have a poor prognosis for regaining upper limb capacity at 6 months. Despite this poor prognosis, a number of patients do regain upper limb capacity. We aimed to determine the time window for return of voluntary finger extension during motor recovery and identify clinical characteristics of patients who, despite an initially poor prognosis, show upper limb capacity at 6 months post-stroke.Survival analysis was used to assess the time window for return of voluntary finger extension (Fugl-Meyer Assessment hand sub item finger extension≥1. A cut-off of ≥10 points on the Action Research Arm Test was used to define return of some upper limb capacity (i.e. ability to pick up a small object. Probabilities for regaining upper limb capacity at 6 months post-stroke were determined with multivariable logistic regression analysis using patient characteristics.45 of the 100 patients without voluntary finger extension at 8 ± 4 days post-stroke achieved an Action Research Arm Test score of ≥10 points at 6 months. The median time for regaining voluntary finger extension for these recoverers was 4 weeks (lower and upper percentile respectively 2 and 8 weeks. The median time to return of VFE was not reached for the whole group (N = 100. Patients who had moderate to good lower limb function (Motricity Index leg≥35 points, no visuospatial neglect (single-letter cancellation test asymmetry between the contralesional and ipsilesional sides of <2 omissions and sufficient somatosensory function (Erasmus MC modified Nottingham Sensory Assessment≥33 points had a 0.94 probability of regaining upper limb capacity at 6 months post-stroke.We recommend weekly monitoring of voluntary finger extension within the first 4 weeks post-stroke and preferably up to 8 weeks. Patients with paresis mainly restricted to the upper limb, no visuospatial neglect and sufficient somatosensory function are

The Risk of Individual Stocks’ Tail Dependence with the Market and Its Effect on Stock Returns

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Guobin Fan

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Traditional beta is only a linear measure of overall market risk and places equal emphasis on upside and downside risks, but actually the latter is always much stronger probably due to the trading mechanism like short-sale constraints. Therefore, this paper employs the nonlinear measure, tail dependence, to measure the extreme downside risks that individual stocks crash together with the whole market and investigates whether such tail dependence risks will affect stock returns. Our empirical evidence based on Shanghai A shares confirms that most stocks display nonnegligible tail dependence with the whole market, and, more importantly, such tail dependence risks can indeed provide additional information beyond beta and other factors for asset pricing. In cross-sectional regression, it is proved that this tail dependence does help to explain monthly returns on Shanghai A shares, whereas the time-series regression further indicates that mimicking portfolio returns for tail dependence can capture strong common variation of Shanghai A stock returns.

26 CFR 1.6013-2 - Joint return after filing separate return.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... the case of a joint return made under section 6013(b), the period of limitations provided in sections... (c)(1) of this section, relating to the application of sections 6501 and 6651 with respect to a joint... 26 Internal Revenue 13 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Joint return after filing separate return. 1...

Estimation of submarine mass failure probability from a sequence of deposits with age dates

Science.gov (United States)

Geist, Eric L.; Chaytor, Jason D.; Parsons, Thomas E.; ten Brink, Uri S.

2013-01-01

The empirical probability of submarine mass failure is quantified from a sequence of dated mass-transport deposits. Several different techniques are described to estimate the parameters for a suite of candidate probability models. The techniques, previously developed for analyzing paleoseismic data, include maximum likelihood and Type II (Bayesian) maximum likelihood methods derived from renewal process theory and Monte Carlo methods. The estimated mean return time from these methods, unlike estimates from a simple arithmetic mean of the center age dates and standard likelihood methods, includes the effects of age-dating uncertainty and of open time intervals before the first and after the last event. The likelihood techniques are evaluated using Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC) and Akaike’s Bayesian Information Criterion (ABIC) to select the optimal model. The techniques are applied to mass transport deposits recorded in two Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) drill sites located in the Ursa Basin, northern Gulf of Mexico. Dates of the deposits were constrained by regional bio- and magnetostratigraphy from a previous study. Results of the analysis indicate that submarine mass failures in this location occur primarily according to a Poisson process in which failures are independent and return times follow an exponential distribution. However, some of the model results suggest that submarine mass failures may occur quasiperiodically at one of the sites (U1324). The suite of techniques described in this study provides quantitative probability estimates of submarine mass failure occurrence, for any number of deposits and age uncertainty distributions.

The Risk Return Relationship: Evidence from Index Return and Realised Variance Series

OpenAIRE

Minxian Yang

2014-01-01

The risk return relationship is analysed in bivariate models for return and realised variance(RV) series. Based on daily time series from 21 international market indices for more than 13 years (January 2000 to February 2013), the empirical findings support the arguments of risk return tradeoff, volatility feedback and statistical balance. It is reasoned that the empirical risk return relationship is primarily shaped by two important data features: the negative contemporaneous correlation betw...

Improving Single-Carbon-Nanotube-Electrode Contacts Using Molecular Electronics.

Science.gov (United States)

Krittayavathananon, Atiweena; Ngamchuea, Kamonwad; Li, Xiuting; Batchelor-McAuley, Christopher; Kätelhön, Enno; Chaisiwamongkhol, Korbua; Sawangphruk, Montree; Compton, Richard G

2017-08-17

We report the use of an electroactive species, acetaminophen, to modify the electrical connection between a carbon nanotube (CNT) and an electrode. By applying a potential across two electrodes, some of the CNTs in solution occasionally contact the electrified interface and bridge between two electrodes. By observing a single CNT contact between two microbands of an interdigitated Au electrode in the presence and absence of acetaminophen, the role of the molecular species at the electronic junction is revealed. As compared with the pure CNT, the current magnitude of the acetaminophen-modified CNTs significantly increases with the applied potentials, indicating that the molecule species improves the junction properties probably via redox shuttling.

Mapping probabilities of extreme continental water storage changes from space gravimetry

OpenAIRE

Kusche , Jürgen; Eicker , Annette; Forootan , Ehsan; Springer , Anne; Longuevergne , Laurent

2016-01-01

International audience; Using data from the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission, we derive statistically robust " hot spot " regions of high probability of peak anomalous—i.e., with respect to the seasonal cycle—water storage (of up to 0.7 m one-in-five-year return level) and flux (up to 0.14 m/month). Analysis of, and comparison with, up to 32 years of ERA-Interim reanalysis fields reveals generally good agreement of these hot spot regions to GRACE results and that most e...

Uncertainty of Hydrological Drought Characteristics with Copula Functions and Probability Distributions: A Case Study of Weihe River, China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Panpan Zhao

2017-05-01

Full Text Available This study investigates the sensitivity and uncertainty of hydrological droughts frequencies and severity in the Weihe Basin, China during 1960–2012, by using six commonly used univariate probability distributions and three Archimedean copulas to fit the marginal and joint distributions of drought characteristics. The Anderson-Darling method is used for testing the goodness-of-fit of the univariate model, and the Akaike information criterion (AIC is applied to select the best distribution and copula functions. The results demonstrate that there is a very strong correlation between drought duration and drought severity in three stations. The drought return period varies depending on the selected marginal distributions and copula functions and, with an increase of the return period, the differences become larger. In addition, the estimated return periods (both co-occurrence and joint from the best-fitted copulas are the closet to those from empirical distribution. Therefore, it is critical to select the appropriate marginal distribution and copula function to model the hydrological drought frequency and severity. The results of this study can not only help drought investigation to select a suitable probability distribution and copulas function, but are also useful for regional water resource management. However, a few limitations remain in this study, such as the assumption of stationary of runoff series.

[Ebola contacts' surveillance: social impact and ethical issues in Senegal].

Science.gov (United States)

Desclaux, A; Ndione, A G; Badji, D; Sow, K

2016-10-01

Quarantine has been widely used during the Ebola outbreak in West Africa mainly to control transmission chains. This measure raises ethical issues that require documentation of the modalities of quarantine at the field level and its social effects for contact persons. In Senegal, 74 people were in contact with the Ebola case coming from Guinea in September 2014. Of these, 34 members of the case's household were contained together at home and monitored by officers. The remaining 40 health care workers from two facilities were dispersed in their family households and monitored by telephone or during doctors' visits. The study is based on in-depth interviews with 43 adult contacts about their experiences and perceptions, with additional observation for interpretation and contextualization.Containment at home was applied differently to contacts who lived with patient zero than to professional health care contacts. No coercion was used at first since all contacts adhered to surveillance, but some of them did not fully comply with movement restrictions. Contacts found biosafety precautions stigmatizing, especially during the first days when health workers and contacts were feeling an acute fear of contagion. The material support that was provided-food and money-was necessary since contacts could not work nor get resources, but it was too limited and delayed. The relational support they received was appreciated, as well as the protection from stigmatization by the police and follow-up workers. But the information delivered to contacts was insufficient, and some of them, including health workers, had little knowledge about EVD and Ebola transmission, which caused anxiety and emotional suffering. Some contacts experienced the loss of their jobs and loss of income; several could not easily or fully return to their previous living routines.Beyond its recommendations to enhance support measures, the study identifies the ethical stakes of quarantine in Senegal regarding

A Method to Estimate the Probability That Any Individual Lightning Stroke Contacted the Surface Within Any Radius of Any Point

Science.gov (United States)

Huddleston, Lisa L.; Roeder, William; Merceret, Francis J.

2010-01-01

A technique has been developed to calculate the probability that any nearby lightning stroke is within any radius of any point of interest. In practice, this provides the probability that a nearby lightning stroke was within a key distance of a facility, rather than the error ellipses centered on the stroke. This process takes the current bivariate Gaussian distribution of probability density provided by the current lightning location error ellipse for the most likely location of a lightning stroke and integrates it to get the probability that the stroke is inside any specified radius. This new facility-centric technique will be much more useful to the space launch customers and may supersede the lightning error ellipse approach discussed in [5], [6].

Assessing changes in failure probability of dams in a changing climate

Science.gov (United States)

Mallakpour, I.; AghaKouchak, A.; Moftakhari, H.; Ragno, E.

2017-12-01

Dams are crucial infrastructures and provide resilience against hydrometeorological extremes (e.g., droughts and floods). In 2017, California experienced series of flooding events terminating a 5-year drought, and leading to incidents such as structural failure of Oroville Dam's spillway. Because of large socioeconomic repercussions of such incidents, it is of paramount importance to evaluate dam failure risks associated with projected shifts in the streamflow regime. This becomes even more important as the current procedures for design of hydraulic structures (e.g., dams, bridges, spillways) are based on the so-called stationary assumption. Yet, changes in climate are anticipated to result in changes in statistics of river flow (e.g., more extreme floods) and possibly increasing the failure probability of already aging dams. Here, we examine changes in discharge under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs): RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. In this study, we used routed daily streamflow data from ten global climate models (GCMs) in order to investigate possible climate-induced changes in streamflow in northern California. Our results show that while the average flow does not show a significant change, extreme floods are projected to increase in the future. Using the extreme value theory, we estimate changes in the return periods of 50-year and 100-year floods in the current and future climates. Finally, we use the historical and future return periods to quantify changes in failure probability of dams in a warming climate.

Probability

CERN Document Server

Shiryaev, A N

1996-01-01

This book contains a systematic treatment of probability from the ground up, starting with intuitive ideas and gradually developing more sophisticated subjects, such as random walks, martingales, Markov chains, ergodic theory, weak convergence of probability measures, stationary stochastic processes, and the Kalman-Bucy filter Many examples are discussed in detail, and there are a large number of exercises The book is accessible to advanced undergraduates and can be used as a text for self-study This new edition contains substantial revisions and updated references The reader will find a deeper study of topics such as the distance between probability measures, metrization of weak convergence, and contiguity of probability measures Proofs for a number of some important results which were merely stated in the first edition have been added The author included new material on the probability of large deviations, and on the central limit theorem for sums of dependent random variables

An Empirical Model for Estimating the Probability of Electrical Short Circuits from Tin Whiskers-Part I

Science.gov (United States)

Courey, Karim; Wright, Clara; Asfour, Shihab; Bayliss, Jon; Ludwig, Larry

2008-01-01

Existing risk simulations make the assumption that when a free tin whisker has bridged two adjacent exposed electrical conductors, the result is an electrical short circuit. This conservative assumption is made because shorting is a random event that has a currently unknown probability associated with it. Due to contact resistance, electrical shorts may not occur at lower voltage levels. In this experiment, we study the effect of varying voltage on the breakdown of the contact resistance which leads to a short circuit. From this data, we can estimate the probability of an electrical short, as a function of voltage, given that a free tin whisker has bridged two adjacent exposed electrical conductors. In addition, three tin whiskers grown from the same Space Shuttle Orbiter card guide used in the aforementioned experiment were cross sectioned and studied using a focused ion beam (FIB).

Contact freezing of supercooled cloud droplets on collision with mineral dust particles: effect of particle size

Science.gov (United States)

Hoffmann, Nadine; Duft, Denis; Kiselev, Alexei; Leisner, Thomas

2013-04-01

The contact freezing of supercooled cloud droplets is one of the potentially important and the least investigated heterogeneous mechanism of ice formation in the tropospheric clouds [1]. On the time scales of cloud lifetime the freezing of supercooled water droplets via contact mechanism may occur at higher temperature compared to the same IN immersed in the droplet. However, the laboratory experiments of contact freezing are very challenging due to the number of factors affecting the probability of ice formation. In our experiment we study single water droplets freely levitated in the laminar flow of mineral dust particles acting as the contact freezing nuclei. By repeating the freezing experiment sufficient number of times we are able to reproduce statistical freezing behavior of large ensembles of supercooled droplets and measure the average rate of freezing events. We show that the rate of freezing at given temperature is governed only by the rate of droplet -particle collision and by the properties of the contact ice nuclei. In this contribution we investigate the relationship between the freezing probability and the size of mineral dust particle (represented by illite) and show that their IN efficiency scales with the particle size. Based on this observation, we discuss the similarity between the freezing of supercooled water droplets in immersion and contact modes and possible mechanisms of apparent enhancement of the contact freezing efficiency. [1] - K.C. Young, The role of contact nucleation in ice phase initiation in clouds, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 31, 1974

Stochastic model of financial markets reproducing scaling and memory in volatility return intervals

Science.gov (United States)

Gontis, V.; Havlin, S.; Kononovicius, A.; Podobnik, B.; Stanley, H. E.

2016-11-01

We investigate the volatility return intervals in the NYSE and FOREX markets. We explain previous empirical findings using a model based on the interacting agent hypothesis instead of the widely-used efficient market hypothesis. We derive macroscopic equations based on the microscopic herding interactions of agents and find that they are able to reproduce various stylized facts of different markets and different assets with the same set of model parameters. We show that the power-law properties and the scaling of return intervals and other financial variables have a similar origin and could be a result of a general class of non-linear stochastic differential equations derived from a master equation of an agent system that is coupled by herding interactions. Specifically, we find that this approach enables us to recover the volatility return interval statistics as well as volatility probability and spectral densities for the NYSE and FOREX markets, for different assets, and for different time-scales. We find also that the historical S&P500 monthly series exhibits the same volatility return interval properties recovered by our proposed model. Our statistical results suggest that human herding is so strong that it persists even when other evolving fluctuations perturbate the financial system.

Allergic contact dermatitis to fragrance: a review.

Science.gov (United States)

Scheinman, P L

1996-06-01

Allergy to fragrance is the most common cause of cosmetic contact dermatitis and therefore constitutes a significant clinical problem. The widespread use of fragranced materials in skin care and household products is probably the most important reason for the high incidence of fragrance sensitization. This report will summarize the history of fragrance, review how to detect and evaluate fragrance allergy, discuss the problems inherent in patch testing with the fragrance mix and its constituents, describe systemic contact dermatitis from ingestion of certain flavors, and give suggestions for fragrance-sensitive patients. The use of fragrance mix in patch testing has been invaluable in detecting fragrance allergy. Continued investigation into positive patch test responses to fragrance in scented products is essential in helping to identify new fragrance allergens. Additionally, more cooperation is necessary between industry and dermatologists in assisting patients to avoid proven allergens.

OSIRIS-REx: Sample Return from Asteroid (101955) Bennu

Science.gov (United States)

Lauretta, D. S.; Balram-Knutson, S. S.; Beshore, E.; Boynton, W. V.; Drouet d'Aubigny, C.; DellaGiustina, D. N.; Enos, H. L.; Golish, D. R.; Hergenrother, C. W.; Howell, E. S.; Bennett, C. A.; Morton, E. T.; Nolan, M. C.; Rizk, B.; Roper, H. L.; Bartels, A. E.; Bos, B. J.; Dworkin, J. P.; Highsmith, D. E.; Lorenz, D. A.; Lim, L. F.; Mink, R.; Moreau, M. C.; Nuth, J. A.; Reuter, D. C.; Simon, A. A.; Bierhaus, E. B.; Bryan, B. H.; Ballouz, R.; Barnouin, O. S.; Binzel, R. P.; Bottke, W. F.; Hamilton, V. E.; Walsh, K. J.; Chesley, S. R.; Christensen, P. R.; Clark, B. E.; Connolly, H. C.; Crombie, M. K.; Daly, M. G.; Emery, J. P.; McCoy, T. J.; McMahon, J. W.; Scheeres, D. J.; Messenger, S.; Nakamura-Messenger, K.; Righter, K.; Sandford, S. A.

2017-10-01

In May of 2011, NASA selected the Origins, Spectral Interpretation, Resource Identification, and Security- Regolith Explorer (OSIRIS-REx) asteroid sample return mission as the third mission in the New Frontiers program. The other two New Frontiers missions are New Horizons, which explored Pluto during a flyby in July 2015 and is on its way for a flyby of Kuiper Belt object 2014 MU69 on January 1, 2019, and Juno, an orbiting mission that is studying the origin, evolution, and internal structure of Jupiter. The spacecraft departed for near-Earth asteroid (101955) Bennu aboard an United Launch Alliance Atlas V 411 evolved expendable launch vehicle at 7:05 p.m. EDT on September 8, 2016, on a seven-year journey to return samples from Bennu. The spacecraft is on an outbound-cruise trajectory that will result in a rendezvous with Bennu in November 2018. The science instruments on the spacecraft will survey Bennu to measure its physical, geological, and chemical properties, and the team will use these data to select a site on the surface to collect at least 60 g of asteroid regolith. The team will also analyze the remote-sensing data to perform a detailed study of the sample site for context, assess Bennu's resource potential, refine estimates of its impact probability with Earth, and provide ground-truth data for the extensive astronomical data set collected on this asteroid. The spacecraft will leave Bennu in 2021 and return the sample to the Utah Test and Training Range (UTTR) on September 24, 2023.

Changes in Contact Area in Meniscus Horizontal Cleavage Tears Subjected to Repair and Resection.

Science.gov (United States)

Beamer, Brandon S; Walley, Kempland C; Okajima, Stephen; Manoukian, Ohan S; Perez-Viloria, Miguel; DeAngelis, Joseph P; Ramappa, Arun J; Nazarian, Ara

2017-03-01

To assess the changes in tibiofemoral contact pressure and contact area in human knees with a horizontal cleavage tear before and after treatment. Ten human cadaveric knees were tested. Pressure sensors were placed under the medial meniscus and the knees were loaded at twice the body weight for 20 cycles at 0°, 10°, and 20° of flexion. Contact area and pressure were recorded for the intact meniscus, the meniscus with a horizontal cleavage tear, after meniscal repair, after partial meniscectomy (single leaflet), and after subtotal meniscectomy (double leaflet). The presence of a horizontal cleavage tear significantly increased average peak contact pressure and reduced effective average tibiofemoral contact area at all flexion angles tested compared with the intact state (P contact pressure after creation of the horizontal cleavage tear. Repairing the horizontal cleavage tear restored peak contact pressures and areas to within 15% of baseline, statistically similar to the intact state at all angles tested (P contact pressure and reduced average contact area at all degrees of flexion compared with the intact state (P contact area and a significant elevation in contact pressure. These changes may accelerate joint degeneration. A suture-based repair of these horizontal cleavage tears returns the contact area and contact pressure to nearly normal, whereas both partial and subtotal meniscectomy lead to significant reductions in contact area and significant elevations in contact pressure within the knee. Repairing horizontal cleavage tears may lead to improved clinical outcomes by preserving meniscal tissue and the meniscal function. Understanding contact area and peak contact pressure resulting from differing strategies for treating horizontal cleavage tears will allow the surgeon to evaluate the best strategy for treating his or her patients who present with this meniscal pathology. Copyright © 2016 Arthroscopy Association of North America. Published by Elsevier

Occupational contact urticaria and protein contact dermatitis.

Science.gov (United States)

Doutre, Marie-Sylvie

2005-01-01

Irritant dermatitis and eczema are the most prevalent occupational skin diseases. Less common are immediate contact reactions such as contact urticaria and protein contact dermatitis. Occupational contact urticaria can be subdivided into two categories, immunological and non immunological. However, some agents can induce these two types of reactions. Contact urticaria to natural rubber latex is particularly frequent among health care personnel, but contact urticaria to a wide variety of other substances occurs in many other occupations. Among those at risk are cooks, bakers, butchers, restaurant personnel, veterinarians, hairdressers, florists, gardeners, and forestry workers. Protein contact dermatitis in some of these occupations is caused principally by proteins of animal or plant origin, especially among individuals with a history of atopic dermatitis. Diagnosis requires careful interrogation, clinical examination and skin tests (open tests and prick tests with immediate lecture) to identify a particular contact allergen.

Spatial variability of maximum annual daily rain under different return periods at the Rio de Janeiro state, Brazil

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Roriz Luciano Machado

2010-01-01

Full Text Available Knowledge of maximum daily rain and its return period in a region is an important tool to soil conservation, hydraulic engineering and preservation of road projects. The objective of this work was to evaluate the spatial variability of maximum annual daily rain considering different return periods, at the Rio de Janeiro State. The data set was composed by historical series of 119 rain gauges, for 36 years of observation. The return periods, estimated by Gumbel distribution, were 2, 5, 10, 25, 50 and 100 years. The spatial variability of the return periods was evaluated by semivariograms. All the return periods presented spatial dependence, with exponential and spherical model fitted to the experimental semivariograms. The parameters of the fitted semivariogram model were very similar; however, it was observed the presence of higher nugget effects for semivariograms of longer return periods. The values of maximum annual daily average rain in all the return periods increased from north to south and from countryside to the coast. In the region between the Serra do Mar range and the coast, besides increasing in magnitude, an increase in the spatial variability of the studied values with increasing return periods was also noticed. This behavior is probably caused by the orographic effect. The interpolated maps were more erratic for higher return periods and at the North, Northeast and Coastal Plain regions, in which the installation of new pluviometric stations are recommended.

Scaling Qualitative Probability

OpenAIRE

Burgin, Mark

2017-01-01

There are different approaches to qualitative probability, which includes subjective probability. We developed a representation of qualitative probability based on relational systems, which allows modeling uncertainty by probability structures and is more coherent than existing approaches. This setting makes it possible proving that any comparative probability is induced by some probability structure (Theorem 2.1), that classical probability is a probability structure (Theorem 2.2) and that i...

Universal entrainment mechanism controls contact times with motile cells

Science.gov (United States)

Mathijssen, Arnold J. T. M.; Jeanneret, Raphaël; Polin, Marco

2018-03-01

Contact between particles and motile cells underpins a wide variety of biological processes, from nutrient capture and ligand binding to grazing, viral infection, and cell-cell communication. The window of opportunity for these interactions depends on the basic mechanism determining contact time, which is currently unknown. By combining experiments on three different species—Chlamydomonas reinhardtii, Tetraselmis subcordiforms, and Oxyrrhis marina—with simulations and analytical modeling, we show that the fundamental physical process regulating proximity to a swimming microorganism is hydrodynamic particle entrainment. The resulting distribution of contact times is derived within the framework of Taylor dispersion as a competition between advection by the cell surface and microparticle diffusion, and predicts the existence of an optimal tracer size that is also observed experimentally. Spatial organization of flagella, swimming speed, and swimmer and tracer size influence entrainment features and provide tradeoffs that may be tuned to optimize the estimated probabilities for microbial interactions like predation and infection.

Loiasis in a Japanese Traveler Returning from Central Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Kobayashi, Tetsuro; Hayakawa, Kayoko; Mawatari, Momoko; Itoh, Makoto; Akao, Nobuaki; Yotsu, Rie R.; Sugihara, Jun; Takeshita, Nozomi; Kutsuna, Satoshi; Fujiya, Yoshihiro; Kanagawa, Shuzo; Ohmagari, Norio; Kato, Yasuyuki

2015-01-01

We encountered a probable case of loiasis in a returned traveler from Central Africa. A 52-year-old Japanese woman presented to our hospital complaining of discomfort in her eyes and skin. She reported having frequently visited Central Africa over many years and having been extensively exposed to the rainforest climate and ecosystem. Although no microfilariae were found in her blood, there was an elevated level of IgG antibodies against the crude antigens of Brugia pahangi, which have cross-reactivity with Loa loa. She was treated with albendazole for 21 days, after which the antigen-specific IgG level decreased and no relapse occurred. PMID:26161033

Returns to Education During and After the Economic Crisis: Evidence from Latvia 2006–2012

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vilerts Karlis

2017-03-01

Full Text Available We employ EU-SILC micro data for Latvia to study how returns to education changed during the economic crisis of 2008–2009 and afterwards. We found that returns to education increased significantly during the crisis and decreased slightly during the subsequent economic recovery. The counter-cyclical effect was evident in nearly all population groups. After the crisis, education became more associated than before with a longer working week and a higher employment probability. Furthermore, we show that returns to education in Latvia are generally higher in the capital city and its suburbs than outside the capital city region, as well as for citizens of Latvia than for resident non-citizens and citizens of other countries, but lower for males and young people. Wage differential models reveal a relatively large wage premium for higher education and a rather small one for secondary education. Estimates obtained with instrumental variable (IV models significantly exceed the OLS estimates.

Tribo-chemical behavior of eutectoid steel during rolling contact friction

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhou, Y.; Cai, Z.B. [Key Laboratory of Advanced Technologies of Materials, Ministry of Education, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 610031 (China); Peng, J.F. [Tribology Research Institute, State Key Laboratory of Traction Power, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 610031 (China); Cao, B.B. [Key Laboratory of Advanced Technologies of Materials, Ministry of Education, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 610031 (China); Jin, X.S. [Tribology Research Institute, State Key Laboratory of Traction Power, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 610031 (China); Zhu, M.H., E-mail: zhuminhao@swjtu.cn [Key Laboratory of Advanced Technologies of Materials, Ministry of Education, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 610031 (China); Tribology Research Institute, State Key Laboratory of Traction Power, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 610031 (China)

2016-12-01

Highlights: • Tribo-chemical behavior was investigated during rolling contact friction. • Tribo-film may weaken the absorptive ability of O/C atoms on the surface. • Tribo-film is related to a low friction coefficient at rolling friction condition. - Abstract: The tribo-chemical behavior of the eutectoid steel during rolling contact friction is investigated via scanning electron microscopy, X-ray diffraction, X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) and electron probe X-ray microanalysis. The worn surface is divided into three zones: matrix zone (without friction), tribo-film zone (formed during friction) and delamination zone (tribo-film spalling). The different chemical states of atoms between those three zones and the air were investigated using the XPS analysis. The results showed that the matrix zone is composed of Fe{sub 2}O{sub 3}, FeO and metallic Fe, while the tribo-film and delamination zones only contain Fe{sub 2}O{sub 3} and FeO. Where the tribo-film is formed, the absorptive ability of O and C atoms on the top 2–3 atomic layers is probably weakened, while the exposed fresh metal in the delamination zone tends to be continuously oxidized and form tribo-film. The tribo-chemical reaction in the delamination zone is more activated than that in the other two zones. The protective nature of the tribo-film probably maintains a low friction coefficient under rolling contact friction condition.

Estimating the Probability of Electrical Short Circuits from Tin Whiskers. Part 2

Science.gov (United States)

Courey, Karim J.; Asfour, Shihab S.; Onar, Arzu; Bayliss, Jon A.; Ludwig, Larry L.; Wright, Maria C.

2010-01-01

To comply with lead-free legislation, many manufacturers have converted from tin-lead to pure tin finishes of electronic components. However, pure tin finishes have a greater propensity to grow tin whiskers than tin-lead finishes. Since tin whiskers present an electrical short circuit hazard in electronic components, simulations have been developed to quantify the risk of said short circuits occurring. Existing risk simulations make the assumption that when a free tin whisker has bridged two adjacent exposed electrical conductors, the result is an electrical short circuit. This conservative assumption is made because shorting is a random event that had an unknown probability associated with it. Note however that due to contact resistance electrical shorts may not occur at lower voltage levels. In our first article we developed an empirical probability model for tin whisker shorting. In this paper, we develop a more comprehensive empirical model using a refined experiment with a larger sample size, in which we studied the effect of varying voltage on the breakdown of the contact resistance which leads to a short circuit. From the resulting data we estimated the probability distribution of an electrical short, as a function of voltage. In addition, the unexpected polycrystalline structure seen in the focused ion beam (FIB) cross section in the first experiment was confirmed in this experiment using transmission electron microscopy (TEM). The FIB was also used to cross section two card guides to facilitate the measurement of the grain size of each card guide's tin plating to determine its finish .

Targets of DNA-binding proteins in bacterial promoter regions present enhanced probabilities for spontaneous thermal openings

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Apostolaki, Angeliki; Kalosakas, George

2011-01-01

We mapped promoter regions of double-stranded DNA with respect to the probabilities of appearance of relatively large bubble openings exclusively due to thermal fluctuations at physiological temperatures. We analyzed five well-studied promoter regions of procaryotic type and found a spatial correlation between the binding sites of transcription factors and the position of peaks in the probability pattern of large thermal openings. Other distinct peaks of the calculated patterns correlate with potential binding sites of DNA-binding proteins. These results suggest that a DNA molecule would more frequently expose the bases that participate in contacts with proteins, which would probably enhance the probability of the latter to reach their targets. It also stands for using this method as a means to analyze DNA sequences based on their intrinsic thermal properties

Discrimination between biological interfaces and crystal-packing contacts

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yuko Tsuchiya

2008-11-01

Full Text Available Yuko Tsuchiya1, Haruki Nakamura2, Kengo Kinoshita1,31Institute of Medical Science, The University of Tokyo, 4-6-1 Shirokanedai, Minatoku, Tokyo, 108-8639, Japan; 2Institute for Protein Research, Osaka University, 3-2 Yamadaoka, Suita, Osaka, 565-0871, Japan; 3Bioinformatics Research and Development, JST, 4-1-8 Honcho, Kawaguchi, Saitama, 332-0012, JapanAbstract: A discrimination method between biologically relevant interfaces and artificial crystal-packing contacts in crystal structures was constructed. The method evaluates protein-protein interfaces in terms of complementarities for hydrophobicity, electrostatic potential and shape on the protein surfaces, and chooses the most probable biological interfaces among all possible contacts in the crystal. The method uses a discriminator named as “COMP”, which is a linear combination of the complementarities for the above three surface features and does not correlate with the contact area. The discrimination of homo-dimer interfaces from symmetry-related crystal-packing contacts based on the COMP value achieved the modest success rate. Subsequent detailed review of the discrimination results raised the success rate to about 88.8%. In addition, our discrimination method yielded some clues for understanding the interaction patterns in several examples in the PDB. Thus, the COMP discriminator can also be used as an indicator of the “biological-ness” of protein-protein interfaces.Keywords: protein-protein interaction, complementarity analysis, homo-dimer interface, crystal-packing contact, biological interfaces

“Swimming Ducks Forecast the Coming of Spring”—The predictability of aggregate insider trading on future market returns in the Chinese market

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chafen Zhu

2014-09-01

Full Text Available This study systematically examines the ability of aggregate insider trading to predict future market returns in the Chinese A-share market. After controlling for the contrarian investment strategy, aggregate executive (large shareholder trading conducted over the past six months can predict 66% (72.7% of market returns twelve months in advance. Aggregate insider trading predicts future market returns very accurately and is stronger for insiders who have a greater information advantage (e.g., executives and controlling shareholders. Corporate governance also affects the predictability of insider trading. The predictability of executive trading is weakest in central state-owned companies, probably because the “quasi-official” status of the executives in those companies effectively curbs their incentives to benefit from insider trading. The predictive power of large shareholder trading in private-owned companies is higher than that in state-owned companies, probably due to their stronger profit motivation and higher involvement in business operations. This study complements the literature by examining an emerging market and investigating how the institutional context and corporate governance affect insider trading.

“Swimming Ducks Forecast the Coming of Spring”—The predictability of aggregate insider trading on future market returns in the Chinese market

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Chafen; Zhu; Li; Wang; Tengfei; Yang

2014-01-01

This study systematically examines the ability of aggregate insider trading to predict future market returns in the Chinese A-share market. After controlling for the contrarian investment strategy, aggregate executive(large shareholder)trading conducted over the past six months can predict 66%(72.7%) of market returns twelve months in advance. Aggregate insider trading predicts future market returns very accurately and is stronger for insiders who have a greater information advantage(e.g., executives and controlling shareholders).Corporate governance also affects the predictability of insider trading. The predictability of executive trading is weakest in central state-owned companies,probably because the "quasi-official" status of the executives in those companies effectively curbs their incentives to benefit from insider trading.The predictive power of large shareholder trading in private-owned companies is higher than that in state-owned companies, probably due to their stronger profit motivation and higher involvement in business operations. This study complements the literature by examining an emerging market and investigating how the institutional context and corporate governance affect insider trading.

Predictability of Stock Returns

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ahmet Sekreter

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Predictability of stock returns has been shown by empirical studies over time. This article collects the most important theories on forecasting stock returns and investigates the factors that affecting behavior of the stocks’ prices and the market as a whole. Estimation of the factors and the way of estimation are the key issues of predictability of stock returns.

Ouabain modulates cell contacts as well as functions that depend on cell adhesion.

Science.gov (United States)

Larre, Isabel; Contreras, Ruben G; Cereijido, Marcelino

2011-01-01

Ouabain, a toxic of vegetal origin used for centuries to treat heart failure, has recently been demonstrated to have an endogenous counterpart, most probably ouabain itself, which behaves as a hormone. Therefore, the challenge now is to discover the physiological role of hormone ouabain. We have recently shown that it modulates cell contacts such as gap junctions, which communicate neighboring cells, as well as tight junctions (TJs), which are one of the two differentiated features of epithelial cells, the other being apical/basolateral polarity. The importance of cell contacts can be hardly overestimated, since the most complex object in the universe, the brain, assembles itself depending on what cells contacts what other(s) how, when, and how is the molecular composition and special arrangement of the contacts involved. In the present chapter, we detail the protocols used to demonstrate the effect of ouabain on the molecular structure and functional properties of one of those cell-cell contacts: the TJ.

Toward a generalized probability theory: conditional probabilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cassinelli, G.

1979-01-01

The main mathematical object of interest in the quantum logic approach to the foundations of quantum mechanics is the orthomodular lattice and a set of probability measures, or states, defined by the lattice. This mathematical structure is studied per se, independently from the intuitive or physical motivation of its definition, as a generalized probability theory. It is thought that the building-up of such a probability theory could eventually throw light on the mathematical structure of Hilbert-space quantum mechanics as a particular concrete model of the generalized theory. (Auth.)

Return-to-activity after anatomical reconstruction of acute high-grade acromioclavicular separation.

Science.gov (United States)

Saier, T; Plath, J E; Beitzel, K; Minzlaff, P; Feucht, J M; Reuter, S; Martetschläger, F; Imhoff, Andreas B; Aboalata, M; Braun, S

2016-04-02

To evaluate return-to-activity (RtA) after anatomical reconstruction of acute high-grade acromioclavicular joint (ACJ) separation. A total of 42 patients with anatomical reconstruction of acute high-grade ACJ-separation (Rockwood Type V) were surveyed to determine RtA at a mean 31 months follow-up (f-u). Sports disciplines, intensity, level of competition, participation in overhead and/or contact sports, as well as activity scales (DASH-Sport-Module, Tegner Activity Scale) were evaluated. Functional outcome evaluation included Constant score and QuickDASH. All patients (42/42) participated in sporting activities at f-u. Neither participation in overhead/contact sports, nor level of activity declined significantly (n.s.). 62 % (n = 26) of patients reported subjective sports specific ACJ integrity to be at least the same as prior to the trauma. Sporting intensity (hours/week: 7.3 h to 5.4 h, p = .004) and level of competition (p = .02) were reduced. If activity changed, in 50 % other reasons but clinical symptoms/impairment were named for modified behavior. QuickDASH (mean 6, range 0-54, SD 11) and DASH-Sport-Module (mean 6, range 0-56, SD 13) revealed only minor disabilities at f-u. Over time Constant score improved significant to an excellent score (mean 94, range 86-100, SD 4; p < .001). Functional outcome was not correlated with RtA (n.s.). All patients participated in sporting activities after anatomical reconstruction of high-grade (Rockwood Type V) ACJ-separation. With a high functional outcome there was no significant change in activity level (Tegner) and participation in overhead and/or contact sports observed. There was no correlation between functional outcome and RtA. Limiting, there were alterations in time spent for sporting activities and level of competition observed. But in 50 % those were not related to ACJ symptoms/impairment. Unrelated to successful re-established integrity and function of the ACJ it should be considered that

Contact allergy in patients with rosacea: a clinic-based, prospective epidemiological study.

Science.gov (United States)

Jappe, U; Schäfer, T; Schnuch, A; Uter, W

2008-11-01

Rosacea is a relatively common inflammatory skin disease of unknown prevalence. The proportion of contact allergy complicating rosacea and its therapy, respectively, is largely unknown. To estimate the prevalence of specific contact allergy in rosacea patients and to compare this with the prevalence observed in the general population and in general patch test patients. In this prospective monocentre study, 78 patients with rosacea were investigated for contact sensitizations via patch testing the standard series, constituents of topical formulations, preservatives, fragrances, topically applied drugs and, if available, patient's own products. Positive reactions occurred to nickel (II) sulphate (12 of 78, 15.4%), fragrance mix I (4 of 77, 5.2%), balsam of Peru (8 of 77, 10.4%; significantly elevated prevalence compared to that observed in the population-based KORA study), potassium dichromate (4 of 78, 5.1%) and Lyral (3 of 78, 3.8%). Regarding topical antibiotics, only 1 of 78 (1.3%) patients was positive to neomycin sulphate, and none to metronidazole; however, 6 of 75 (8%) patients were positive to gentamicin sulphate, and 4 of 76 (5.3%) patients were positive to framycetin sulphate. No allergic but irritant patch test reactions, instead, were provoked by various patients' own products as well as by the irritant sodium lauryl sulphate (SLS) even in low concentrations. Despite the limited power of the study, a strikingly high prevalence of contact allergy to gentamicin sulphate was observed, which is probably due to antibiotic treatment of rosacea-associated eye symptoms. The reactions to the irritant SLS probably mirror the extreme skin sensitivity in rosacea.

The Return to Foreign Aid

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dalgaard, Carl-Johan Lars; Hansen, Henrik

2017-01-01

We estimate the average rate of return on investments financed by aid and by domestic resource mobilisation, using aggregate data. Both returns are expected to vary across countries and time. Consequently we develop a correlated random coefficients model to estimate the average returns. Across...... different estimators and two different data sources for GDP and investment our findings are remarkably robust; the average gross return on ‘aid investments’ is about 20 per cent. This is in accord with micro estimates of the economic rate of return on aid projects and with aggregate estimates of the rate...

Early Warning System in ASEAN Countries Using Capital Market Index Return: Modiied Markov Regime Switching Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Imam Wahyudi

2014-08-01

Full Text Available Asia's  inancial  crisis  in  July  1997  affects  currency,  capital  market,  and  real  market throughout  Asian  countries.  Countries  in  southeast  region  (ASEAN,  including  Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand, are some of the countries where the crisis hit  the  most.  In  these  countries,  where  inancial  sectors  are  far  more  developed  than  real sectors  and  the  money  market  sectors,  most  of  the  economic  activities  are  conducted  in capital  market.  Movement  in  the  capital  market  could  be  a  proxy  to  describe  the  overall economic  situation  and  therefore  the  prediction  of  it  could  be  an  early  warning  system  of economic crises. This paper tries to investigate movement in ASEAN (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines,  Singapore,  and  Thailand  capital  market  to  build  an  early  warning  system from inancial sectors perspective. This paper will be very beneicial for the government to anticipate the forthcoming crisis. The insight of this paper is from Hamilton (1990 model of regime switching process in which he divide the movement of currency into two regimes, describe the switching transition based on Markov process and creates different model for each regimes. Differ from Hamilton, our research focuses on index return instead of currency to  model  the  regime  switching.  This  research  aimed  to  ind  the  probability  of  crisis  in  the future by combining the probability of switching and the probability distribution function of each  regime.  Probability  of  switching  is  estimated  by  categorizing  the  movement  in  index return  into  two  regimes  (negative  return  in  regime  1  and  positive  return  in  regime  2  then measuring  the  proportion  of  switching  to  regime  1  in  t  given  regime �

Analysis of the Touch-And-Go Surface Sampling Concept for Comet Sample Return Missions

Science.gov (United States)

Mandic, Milan; Acikmese, Behcet; Bayard, David S.; Blackmore, Lars

2012-01-01

This paper studies the Touch-and-Go (TAG) concept for enabling a spacecraft to take a sample from the surface of a small primitive body, such as an asteroid or comet. The idea behind the TAG concept is to let the spacecraft descend to the surface, make contact with the surface for several seconds, and then ascend to a safe location. Sampling would be accomplished by an end-effector that is active during the few seconds of surface contact. The TAG event is one of the most critical events in a primitive body sample-return mission. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the dynamic behavior of a representative spacecraft during the TAG event, i.e., immediately prior, during, and after surface contact of the sampler. The study evaluates the sample-collection performance of the proposed sampling end-effector, in this case a brushwheel sampler, while acquiring material from the surface during the contact. A main result of the study is a guidance and control (G&C) validation of the overall TAG concept, in addition to specific contributions to demonstrating the effectiveness of using nonlinear clutch mechanisms in the sampling arm joints, and increasing the length of the sampling arms to improve robustness.

Fragrance contact allergy

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Johansen, Jeanne D

2003-01-01

in the same products. This means that it is difficult to avoid exposure, as products labelled as 'fragrance free' have also been shown to contain fragrance ingredients, either because of the use of fragrance ingredients as preservatives or masking perfumes, or the use of botanicals. About 2500 different...... fragrance ingredients are currently used in the composition of perfumes and at least 100 of these are known contact allergens. Therefore, it is advisable to supplement standard patch testing with the patient's own stay-on cosmetic products, as well as the fragrance chemical hydroxyisohexyl-3-cyclohexane...... carboxaldehyde, which on its own gives responses in 1-3% of tested patients. The focus in recent years on the ingredients of the fragrance mix will probably result in the fragrance industry changing the composition of perfumes, and thus make the current diagnostic test less useful. New diagnostic tests are under...

Contact mechanics for poroelastic, fluid-filled media, with application to cartilage.

Science.gov (United States)

Persson, B N J

2016-12-21

I study a simple contact mechanics model for a poroelastic, fluid-filled solid squeezed against a rigid, randomly rough substrate. I study how the fluid is squeezed out from the interface, and how the area of contact, and the average interfacial separation, change with time. I present numerical results relevant for a human cartilage. I show that for a fluid filled poroelastic solid the probability of cavitation (and the related wear as the cavities implode), and dynamical scraping (defined below and in Hutt and Persson, J. Chem. Phys. 144, 124903 (2016)), may be suppressed by fluid flow from the poroelastic solid into the (roughness induced) interfacial gap between the solids.

Uncertainty, probability and information-gaps

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ben-Haim, Yakov

2004-01-01

This paper discusses two main ideas. First, we focus on info-gap uncertainty, as distinct from probability. Info-gap theory is especially suited for modelling and managing uncertainty in system models: we invest all our knowledge in formulating the best possible model; this leaves the modeller with very faulty and fragmentary information about the variation of reality around that optimal model. Second, we examine the interdependence between uncertainty modelling and decision-making. Good uncertainty modelling requires contact with the end-use, namely, with the decision-making application of the uncertainty model. The most important avenue of uncertainty-propagation is from initial data- and model-uncertainties into uncertainty in the decision-domain. Two questions arise. Is the decision robust to the initial uncertainties? Is the decision prone to opportune windfall success? We apply info-gap robustness and opportunity functions to the analysis of representation and propagation of uncertainty in several of the Sandia Challenge Problems

Fatal yellow fever in a traveler returning from Venezuela, 1999.

Science.gov (United States)

2000-04-14

On September 28, 1999, a previously healthy 48-year-old man from California sought care at a local emergency department (ED) and was hospitalized with a 2-day history of fever (102 F [38.9 C]), chills, headache, photophobia, diffuse myalgias, joint pains, nausea, vomiting, constipation, upper abdominal discomfort, and general weakness. On September 26, he had returned from a 10-day trip to Venezuela. On September 29, an infectious disease physician from the ED contacted the Marin County Health Department (MCHD) about the patient's symptoms; MCHD reported his illness to the California Department of Health Services (CDHS) as a suspected case of viral hemorrhagic fever. This report describes the investigation of the case.

Molecular dynamics study of contact mechanics: contact area and interfacial separation from small to full contact

OpenAIRE

Yang, C.; Persson, B. N. J.

2007-01-01

We report a molecular dynamics study of the contact between a rigid solid with a randomly rough surface and an elastic block with a flat surface. We study the contact area and the interfacial separation from small contact (low load) to full contact (high load). For small load the contact area varies linearly with the load and the interfacial separation depends logarithmically on the load. For high load the contact area approaches to the nominal contact area (i.e., complete contact), and the i...

Quantum probability measures and tomographic probability densities

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Amosov, GG; Man'ko, [No Value

2004-01-01

Using a simple relation of the Dirac delta-function to generalized the theta-function, the relationship between the tomographic probability approach and the quantum probability measure approach with the description of quantum states is discussed. The quantum state tomogram expressed in terms of the

Optimal contact definition for reconstruction of Contact Maps

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stehr Henning

2010-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Contact maps have been extensively used as a simplified representation of protein structures. They capture most important features of a protein's fold, being preferred by a number of researchers for the description and study of protein structures. Inspired by the model's simplicity many groups have dedicated a considerable amount of effort towards contact prediction as a proxy for protein structure prediction. However a contact map's biological interest is subject to the availability of reliable methods for the 3-dimensional reconstruction of the structure. Results We use an implementation of the well-known distance geometry protocol to build realistic protein 3-dimensional models from contact maps, performing an extensive exploration of many of the parameters involved in the reconstruction process. We try to address the questions: a to what accuracy does a contact map represent its corresponding 3D structure, b what is the best contact map representation with regard to reconstructability and c what is the effect of partial or inaccurate contact information on the 3D structure recovery. Our results suggest that contact maps derived from the application of a distance cutoff of 9 to 11Å around the Cβ atoms constitute the most accurate representation of the 3D structure. The reconstruction process does not provide a single solution to the problem but rather an ensemble of conformations that are within 2Å RMSD of the crystal structure and with lower values for the pairwise average ensemble RMSD. Interestingly it is still possible to recover a structure with partial contact information, although wrong contacts can lead to dramatic loss in reconstruction fidelity. Conclusions Thus contact maps represent a valid approximation to the structures with an accuracy comparable to that of experimental methods. The optimal contact definitions constitute key guidelines for methods based on contact maps such as structure prediction through

76 FR 22611 - Specified Tax Return Preparers Required To File Individual Income Tax Returns Using Magnetic...

Science.gov (United States)

2011-04-22

... Specified Tax Return Preparers Required To File Individual Income Tax Returns Using Magnetic Media... Register on Wednesday, March 30, 2011 (76 FR 17521) providing guidance to specified tax return preparers who prepare and file individual income tax returns using magnetic media pursuant to section 6011(e)(3...

Statistics of return intervals between long heartbeat intervals and their usability for online prediction of disorders

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bogachev, Mikhail I; Bunde, Armin; Kireenkov, Igor S; Nifontov, Eugene M

2009-01-01

We study the statistics of return intervals between large heartbeat intervals (above a certain threshold Q) in 24 h records obtained from healthy subjects. We find that both the linear and the nonlinear long-term memory inherent in the heartbeat intervals lead to power-laws in the probability density function P Q (r) of the return intervals. As a consequence, the probability W Q (t; Δt) that at least one large heartbeat interval will occur within the next Δt heartbeat intervals, with an increasing elapsed number of intervals t after the last large heartbeat interval, follows a power-law. Based on these results, we suggest a method of obtaining a priori information about the occurrence of the next large heartbeat interval, and thus to predict it. We show explicitly that the proposed method, which exploits long-term memory, is superior to the conventional precursory pattern recognition technique, which focuses solely on short-term memory. We believe that our results can be straightforwardly extended to obtain more reliable predictions in other physiological signals like blood pressure, as well as in other complex records exhibiting multifractal behaviour, e.g. turbulent flow, precipitation, river flows and network traffic.

[Contact allergic gastritis : Rare manifestation of a metal allergy].

Science.gov (United States)

Pföhler, C; Vogt, T; Müller, C S L

2016-05-01

Only a few cases of contact allergic gastritis in patients with nickel allergy have been reported in the literature. We report a case of probable contact-allergic gastritis in a 46-year-old woman. Clinical examination revealed lichenoid mucosal lesions of the gums adjacent to a bridge and crowns that had been implanted several weeks previously. Since implantation, the patient suffered from gastrointestinal complaints including stomach pain. Gastroscopy and histological investigation of stomach biopsies showed eosinophilic gastritis. Patch testing done under the diagnosis of contact allergic stomatitis showed positive reactions to gold sodium thiosulphate, manganese (II) chloride, nickel (II) sulphate, palladium chloride, vanadium (III) chloride, zirconium (IV) chloride, and fragrances. The crowns and the bridge contained gold, palladium, and zirconium, hence they were replaced by titan-based dentition. Shortly after replacing the artificial dentition, all gastrointestinal symptoms resolved spontaneously without further treatment. Delayed-type allergy to components in the artificial dentition seem to have caused the gastritis.

Acanthamoeba keratitis in Scotland: risk factors for contact lens wearers.

Science.gov (United States)

Seal, D V; Kirkness, C M; Bennett, H G; Peterson, M

1999-01-01

To investigate risk factors for Acanthamoeba keratitis amongst contact lens wearers in Scotland. Patients with Acanthamoeba keratitis in the Scottish study, all of whom wore contact lenses, were compared with 46 healthy asymptomatic contact lens-wearing controls. They were all visited at home for contact lens and environmental microbiological sampling. In addition, all 288 optical practices in the West of Scotland were polled for contact lens types and disinfecting solutions sold in 1995, and a sample, each of whom fitted more than 500 contact lenses per year, were polled for a second time. Independently, a poll was commissioned by the Eyecare Information Service in July/August 1995 to estimate the numbers of contact lens wearers in Scotland and the UK. Industry was polled for numbers of each contact lens disinfecting regimen sold in Scotland in 1995. West of Scotland, UK. All contact lens wearers among the 3 million population of the West of Scotland Health Board Areas. Risk factors for Acanthamoeba infection and recommendations for its prevention. When Acanthamoeba infection occurred, patients' home water systems were frequently (54%) found to be colonised by this amoeba. Patients more frequently washed their storage cases in tap water than controls (Pmethods (chlorine tablets or no disinfection). However further investigation showed that these methods were associated with an increased probability of rinsing the storage case in tap water, so that these two behaviours are confounded in the group studied. Failure to disinfect contact lenses, non-compliant use of chlorine tablets and/or introduction of tap water rinsing of storage cases were associated with increased risk of Acanthamoeba infection. New multipurpose solutions and hydrogen peroxide gave the lowest risk of Acanthamoeba infection, with no statistically significant difference between them. Ionic high-water content (FDA group 4) contact lenses were at increased risk of being associated with Acanthamoeba

COVAL, Compound Probability Distribution for Function of Probability Distribution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Astolfi, M.; Elbaz, J.

1979-01-01

1 - Nature of the physical problem solved: Computation of the probability distribution of a function of variables, given the probability distribution of the variables themselves. 'COVAL' has been applied to reliability analysis of a structure subject to random loads. 2 - Method of solution: Numerical transformation of probability distributions

Allergic contact dermatitis to quaternium 15 in a moisturizing lotion.

Science.gov (United States)

Cahill, Jennifer; Nixon, Rosemary

2005-11-01

A 56-year-old nurse from a rural area presented with a 12-month history of hand dermatitis. She had previously been patch tested by a local medical practitioner with the thin-layer rapid-use epicutaneous test, which had shown allergies to quaternium 15 and formaldehyde. After testing, she was prescribed methylprednisolone aceponate 1 mg/g cream by the medical practitioner, but was not informed that quaternium 15 is contained in the Microshield moisturizing lotion she was using at work. When her dermatitis persisted, she saw a dermatologist, who advised her to avoid the Microshield moisturizing lotion, and use a waterless hand cleanser on return to work. The diagnoses were firstly allergic contact dermatitis from quaternium 15 in the moisturizing lotion, and secondly irritant contact dermatitis from nursing work. This case highlights both the presence of quaternium 15 in a product commonly used in health-care settings in Australia, and the importance of offering informed, appropriate advice to patients following patch testing.

Contact angle and local wetting at contact line.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Ri; Shan, Yanguang

2012-11-06

This theoretical study was motivated by recent experiments and theoretical work that had suggested the dependence of the static contact angle on the local wetting at the triple-phase contact line. We revisit this topic because the static contact angle as a local wetting parameter is still not widely understood and clearly known. To further clarify the relationship of the static contact angle with wetting, two approaches are applied to derive a general equation for the static contact angle of a droplet on a composite surface composed of heterogeneous components. A global approach based on the free surface energy of a thermodynamic system containing the droplet and solid surface shows the static contact angle as a function of local surface chemistry and local wetting state at the contact line. A local approach, in which only local forces acting on the contact line are considered, results in the same equation. The fact that the local approach agrees with the global approach further demonstrates the static contact angle as a local wetting parameter. Additionally, the study also suggests that the wetting described by the Wenzel and Cassie equations is also the local wetting of the contact line rather than the global wetting of the droplet.

[Sport injuries in full contact and semi-contact karate].

Science.gov (United States)

Greier, K; Riechelmann, H; Ziemska, J

2014-03-01

Karate enjoys great popularity both in professional and recreational sports and can be classified into full, half and low contact styles. The aim of this study was the analysis of sports injuries in Kyokushinkai (full contact) and traditional Karate (semi-contact). In a retrospective study design, 215 active amateur karateka (114 full contact, 101 semi-contact) were interviewed by means of a standardised questionnaire regarding typical sport injuries during the last 36 months. Injuries were categorised into severity grade I (not requiring medical treatment), grade II (single medical treatment), grade III (several outpatient medical treatments) and grade IV (requiring hospitalisation). In total, 217 injuries were reported in detail. 125 injuries (58%) occurred in full contact and 92 (42%) in semi-contact karate. The time related injury rate of full contact karateka was 1.9/1000 h compared to 1.3/1000 h of semi-contact karateka (p injuries were musculoskeletal contusions (33% full contact, 20% semi-contact), followed by articular sprains with 19% and 16%. The lower extremity was affected twice as often in full contact (40%) as in semi-contact (20%) karate. Training injuries were reported by 80% of the full contact and 77% of the semi-contact karateka. Most injuries, both in training and competition, occurred in kumite. 75% of the reported injuries of full contact and 70% of semi-contact karateka were classified as low grade (I or II). The high rate of injuries during training and kumite (sparring) points to specific prevention goals. The emphasis should be put on proprioceptive training and consistent warm-up. In the actual competition the referees play a vital role regarding prevention. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

On Probability Leakage

OpenAIRE

Briggs, William M.

2012-01-01

The probability leakage of model M with respect to evidence E is defined. Probability leakage is a kind of model error. It occurs when M implies that events $y$, which are impossible given E, have positive probability. Leakage does not imply model falsification. Models with probability leakage cannot be calibrated empirically. Regression models, which are ubiquitous in statistical practice, often evince probability leakage.

Contact replacement for NMR resonance assignment.

Science.gov (United States)

Xiong, Fei; Pandurangan, Gopal; Bailey-Kellogg, Chris

2008-07-01

Complementing its traditional role in structural studies of proteins, nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy is playing an increasingly important role in functional studies. NMR dynamics experiments characterize motions involved in target recognition, ligand binding, etc., while NMR chemical shift perturbation experiments identify and localize protein-protein and protein-ligand interactions. The key bottleneck in these studies is to determine the backbone resonance assignment, which allows spectral peaks to be mapped to specific atoms. This article develops a novel approach to address that bottleneck, exploiting an available X-ray structure or homology model to assign the entire backbone from a set of relatively fast and cheap NMR experiments. We formulate contact replacement for resonance assignment as the problem of computing correspondences between a contact graph representing the structure and an NMR graph representing the data; the NMR graph is a significantly corrupted, ambiguous version of the contact graph. We first show that by combining connectivity and amino acid type information, and exploiting the random structure of the noise, one can provably determine unique correspondences in polynomial time with high probability, even in the presence of significant noise (a constant number of noisy edges per vertex). We then detail an efficient randomized algorithm and show that, over a variety of experimental and synthetic datasets, it is robust to typical levels of structural variation (1-2 AA), noise (250-600%) and missings (10-40%). Our algorithm achieves very good overall assignment accuracy, above 80% in alpha-helices, 70% in beta-sheets and 60% in loop regions. Our contact replacement algorithm is implemented in platform-independent Python code. The software can be freely obtained for academic use by request from the authors.

Mars Sample Return Architecture Overview

Science.gov (United States)

Edwards, C. D.; Vijendran, S.

2018-04-01

NASA and ESA are exploring potential concepts for a Sample Retrieval Lander and Earth Return Orbiter that could return samples planned to be collected and cached by the Mars 2020 rover mission. We provide an overview of the Mars Sample Return architecture.

Host contact and shedding patterns clarify variation in pathogen exposure and transmission in threatened tortoise Gopherus agassizii: implications for disease modelling and management

Science.gov (United States)

Aiello, Christina M.; Nussear, Kenneth E.; Esque, Todd C.; Emblidge, Patrick G.; Sah, Pratha; Bansal, Shweta; Hudson, Peter J.

2016-01-01

Summary Most directly transmitted infections require some form of close contact between infectious and susceptible hosts to spread. Often disease models assume contacts are equal and use mean field estimates of transmission probability for all interactions with infectious hosts.

Contribution to the neutronic theory of random stacks (diffusion coefficient and first-flight collision probabilities) with a general theorem on collision probabilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dixmier, Marc.

1980-10-01

A general expression of the diffusion coefficient (d.c.) of neutrons was given, with stress being put on symmetries. A system of first-flight collision probabilities for the case of a random stack of any number of types of one- and two-zoned spherical pebbles, with an albedo at the frontiers of the elements or (either) consideration of the interstital medium, was built; to that end, the bases of collision probability theory were reviewed, and a wide generalisation of the reciprocity theorem for those probabilities was demonstrated. The migration area of neutrons was expressed for any random stack of convex, 'simple' and 'regular-contact' elements, taking into account the correlations between free-paths; the average cosinus of re-emission of neutrons by an element, in the case of a homogeneous spherical pebble and the transport approximation, was expressed; the superiority of the so-found result over Behrens' theory, for the type of media under consideration, was established. The 'fine structure current term' of the d.c. was also expressed, and it was shown that its 'polarisation term' is negligible. Numerical applications showed that the global heterogeneity effect on the d.c. of pebble-bed reactors is comparable with that for Graphite-moderated, Carbon gas-cooled, natural Uranium reactors. The code CARACOLE, which integrates all the results here obtained, was introduced [fr

26 CFR 20.6018-2 - Returns; person required to file return.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... executor or administrator shall file the return. If there is more than one executor or administrator, the return must be made jointly by all. If there is no executor or administrator appointed, qualified and... decedent situated in the United States is constituted an executor for purposes of the tax (see § 20.2203-1...

Contact and Non-contact Measurements of Grinding Pins

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Magdziak Marek

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The paper presents the results of contact and non-contact measurements of external profiles of selected grinding pins. The measurements were conducted in order to choose the appropriate measuring technique in the case of the considered measurement task. In the case of contact measurements the coordinate measuring machine ACCURA II was applied. The used coordinate measuring machine was equipped with the contact scanning probe VAST XT and the Calypso inspection software. Contact coordinate measurements were performed by using of different measurement strategies. The applied strategies included different scanning velocities and distances between measured points. Non-contact measurements were conducted by means of the tool presetter produced by the Mahr company. On the basis of gained results the guidelines concerning measurements of grinding pins were formulated. The measurements of analyzed grinding pins performed by means of the non-contact measuring system are characterized by higher reproducibility than the contact measurements. The low reproducibility of contact measurements may be connected with the inaccuracy of the selected coordinate measuring machine and the measuring probe, the measurement parameters and environmental conditions in the laboratory where the coordinate measuring machine is located. Moreover, the paper presents the possible application of results of conducted investigations. The results of non-contact measurements can be used in the simulation studies of grinding processes. The simulations may reduce the costs of machining processes.

Nonadhesive, silica nanoparticles-based brush-coated contact lens cases--compromising between ease of cleaning and microbial transmission to contact lenses.

Science.gov (United States)

Qu, Wenwen; Hooymans, Johanna M M; Qiu, Jun; de-Bont, Nik; Gelling, Onko-Jan; van der Mei, Henny C; Busscher, Henk J

2013-05-01

Surface properties of lens cases are determinant for their cleanability and for microbial transmission from lens cases to contact lenses (CLs). PEG-polymer-brush-coatings are known to decrease microbial adhesion more than other surface-coatings. Here, we applied a robust, silica nanoparticles-based brush-coating to polypropylene cases to evaluate their ease of cleaning and probability of bacterial transmission to CLs. Adhesion forces of nine bacterial strains (Pseudomonas, Staphylococci, and Serratia) to rigid CLs, polypropylene, and silica nanoparticles-based brush-coated polypropylene were measured using atomic-force-microscopy and subjected to Weibull analyses to yield bacterial transmission probabilities. Biofilms of each strain were grown in coated and uncoated cases and rinsed with a NaCl or antimicrobial lens care solution. Residual, viable organisms were quantified. Bacterial adhesion forces of all strains were significantly, up to tenfold smaller on brush-coated than on uncoated polypropylene. This yielded, higher transmission probabilities to a CL, but mild-rinsing yielded 10-100 fold higher removal of bacteria from brush-coated than from polypropylene cases. Moreover, due to weak adhesion forces, bacteria on brush-coated cases were two-to-three fold more susceptible to an antimicrobial lens care solution than on polypropylene cases. Therewith, the design of lens case surfaces is a compromise between ease of cleaning and transmission probability to CLs. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Earth reencounter probabilities for aborted space disposal of hazardous nuclear waste

Science.gov (United States)

Friedlander, A. L.; Feingold, H.

1977-01-01

A quantitative assessment is made of the long-term risk of earth reencounter and reentry associated with aborted disposal of hazardous material in the space environment. Numerical results are presented for 10 candidate disposal options covering a broad spectrum of disposal destinations and deployment propulsion systems. Based on representative models of system failure, the probability that a single payload will return and collide with earth within a period of 250,000 years is found to lie in the range .0002-.006. Proportionately smaller risk attaches to shorter time intervals. Risk-critical factors related to trajectory geometry and system reliability are identified as possible mechanisms of hazard reduction.

Stainless steel in contact with food and bevarage

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sveto Cvetkovski

2012-12-01

Full Text Available Stainless steels are probably the most important materials in the food and beverage industries. The main reason for such broad implementation of stainless steel in contact with food are excellent properties which they possess such as corrosion resistance, resistance to high and low temperatures, very good mechanical and physical properties, aesthetic appeal, inertness of surface, durability, easy cleaning and recycling. Low thermal conductivity of these steels produces steeper temperature coefficient provoking an increased distortion, shrinkage and stresses compared with carbon steel.

Statistical properties of short-selling and margin-trading activities and their impacts on returns in the Chinese stock markets

Science.gov (United States)

Gao, Yan; Gao, Yao

2015-11-01

We investigate the collective behaviors of short-selling and margin-trading between Chinese stocks and their impacts on the co-movements of stock returns by cross-correlation and partial correlation analyses. We find that the collective behaviors of margin-trading are largely attributed to the index cohesive force, while those of short-selling are mainly due to some direct interactions between stocks. Interestingly, the dominant role the finance industry plays in the collective behaviors of short-selling could make it more important in affecting the co-movement structure of stock returns by strengthening its relationship with the market index. By detecting the volume-return and volume-volatility relationships, we find that the investors of the two leverage activities are positively triggered by individual stock volatility first, and next, at the return level, margin-buyers show trend-following properties, while short-sellers are probably informative traders who trade on the information impulse of specific firms. However, the return predictability of the two leverage trading activities and their impacts on stock volatility are not significant. Moreover, both tails of the cumulative distributions of the two leverage trading activities are found following the stretched exponential law better than the power-law.

[Return to Work Strategies of Employees who Experienced Depression: Employers and HR's Perspectives].

Science.gov (United States)

Corbière, Marc; Lecomte, Tania; Lachance, Jean-Philippe; Coutu, Marie-France; Negrini, Alessia; Laberon, Sonia

principles/steps mentioned in the literature. The main objective was to keep all the strategies mentioned by participants, and analyzing them with major principles of return to work.Results 24 return to work strategies spread on six principles emerged: 1) Contact with the employee during his sick leave (10 strategies); 2) Evaluate and plan the return to work without precipitating it (6); 3) Training for managers and colleagues regarding mental health in the workplace (4); 4) Concertation between key return to work stakeholders (4); 5) Progressive return to work with work accommodations (4); 6) Health and work follow-up regarding the employee (6).Conclusion These six principles including 34 strategies are usually related to the timeframe process of the return to work, though they can be implemented sometimes in parallel. This possible overlap reinforces the idea to consider the return to work as sustainable in order to prevent potential relapses and improve the performance at work. Next steps will be to systematically implement these principles and strategies in organizations in order to evaluate their impact on return to work of employees on sick leave due to depression.

Quantum probabilities as Dempster-Shafer probabilities in the lattice of subspaces

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vourdas, A.

2014-01-01

The orthocomplemented modular lattice of subspaces L[H(d)], of a quantum system with d-dimensional Hilbert space H(d), is considered. A generalized additivity relation which holds for Kolmogorov probabilities is violated by quantum probabilities in the full lattice L[H(d)] (it is only valid within the Boolean subalgebras of L[H(d)]). This suggests the use of more general (than Kolmogorov) probability theories, and here the Dempster-Shafer probability theory is adopted. An operator D(H 1 ,H 2 ), which quantifies deviations from Kolmogorov probability theory is introduced, and it is shown to be intimately related to the commutator of the projectors P(H 1 ),P(H 2 ), to the subspaces H 1 , H 2 . As an application, it is shown that the proof of the inequalities of Clauser, Horne, Shimony, and Holt for a system of two spin 1/2 particles is valid for Kolmogorov probabilities, but it is not valid for Dempster-Shafer probabilities. The violation of these inequalities in experiments supports the interpretation of quantum probabilities as Dempster-Shafer probabilities

PUC fast track nips returns

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1990-01-01

In the first of what it says will be annual cost-of-capital proceedings to set returns on equity and rates of return on rate base for electric utilities, the California Public Utilities Commission (PUC) lowered from 1989 levels the 1990 returns on common equity (ROE) and rates of return (ROR) for the state's four major investor-owned electric utilities. Under this fast-track procedure, by May 8 of every year, utilities will have to file an application for rate adjustments that reflect their projected costs of capital for the following year

The return to foreign aid

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dalgaard, Carl-Johan Lars; Hansen, Henrik

We investigate the marginal productivity of investment across countries. The aim is to estimate the return on investments financed by foreign aid and by domestic resource mobilization, using aggregate data. Both returns are expected to vary across countries and time. Consequently we develop...... a correlated random coefficients model, to estimate the average aggregate return on ‘aid investments’ and ‘domestic investments’. Across different estimators and two different sources for GDP and investment data our findings are remarkably robust; the average gross return on ‘aid investments’ is about 20 per...

PROBABILITY SURVEYS , CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES AND ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

Science.gov (United States)

We show that probability-based environmental resource monitoring programs, such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (U.S. EPA) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program, and conditional probability analysis can serve as a basis for estimating ecological risk over ...

Distribution of return point memory states for systems with stochastic inputs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Amann, A; Brokate, M; Rachinskii, D; Temnov, G

2011-01-01

We consider the long term effect of stochastic inputs on the state of an open loop system which exhibits the so-called return point memory. An example of such a system is the Preisach model; more generally, systems with the Preisach type input-state relationship, such as in spin-interaction models, are considered. We focus on the characterisation of the expected memory configuration after the system has been effected by the input for sufficiently long period of time. In the case where the input is given by a discrete time random walk process, or the Wiener process, simple closed form expressions for the probability density of the vector of the main input extrema recorded by the memory state, and scaling laws for the dimension of this vector, are derived. If the input is given by a general continuous Markov process, we show that the distribution of previous memory elements can be obtained from a Markov chain scheme which is derived from the solution of an associated one-dimensional escape type problem. Formulas for transition probabilities defining this Markov chain scheme are presented. Moreover, explicit formulas for the conditional probability densities of previous main extrema are obtained for the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck input process. The analytical results are confirmed by numerical experiments.

Quantifying Stock Return Distributions in Financial Markets.

Science.gov (United States)

Botta, Federico; Moat, Helen Susannah; Stanley, H Eugene; Preis, Tobias

2015-01-01

Being able to quantify the probability of large price changes in stock markets is of crucial importance in understanding financial crises that affect the lives of people worldwide. Large changes in stock market prices can arise abruptly, within a matter of minutes, or develop across much longer time scales. Here, we analyze a dataset comprising the stocks forming the Dow Jones Industrial Average at a second by second resolution in the period from January 2008 to July 2010 in order to quantify the distribution of changes in market prices at a range of time scales. We find that the tails of the distributions of logarithmic price changes, or returns, exhibit power law decays for time scales ranging from 300 seconds to 3600 seconds. For larger time scales, we find that the distributions tails exhibit exponential decay. Our findings may inform the development of models of market behavior across varying time scales.

Flood protection diversification to reduce probabilities of extreme losses.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Qian; Lambert, James H; Karvetski, Christopher W; Keisler, Jeffrey M; Linkov, Igor

2012-11-01

Recent catastrophic losses because of floods require developing resilient approaches to flood risk protection. This article assesses how diversification of a system of coastal protections might decrease the probabilities of extreme flood losses. The study compares the performance of portfolios each consisting of four types of flood protection assets in a large region of dike rings. A parametric analysis suggests conditions in which diversifications of the types of included flood protection assets decrease extreme flood losses. Increased return periods of extreme losses are associated with portfolios where the asset types have low correlations of economic risk. The effort highlights the importance of understanding correlations across asset types in planning for large-scale flood protection. It allows explicit integration of climate change scenarios in developing flood mitigation strategy. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Clinico-roentgenological semiotics of malignant contact bone tumors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Akperbekov, A.A.; Polatkhanova, K.B.; Murtuzaeva, Z.D.

1986-01-01

Bone changes were analyzed in 42 patients (aged 18 to 65) with malignant contact bone tumors. Probable causes of their origin were discussed. Of 42 patients corticopleural cancer (Pancoast's tumor) was noted in 24, skin cancer developing against a background of a chronic inflammatory process or trauma, was noted in 13, sarcomatous soft tissue tumors in 5. A method of roentgenography using routine and spot radiographs was used for X-ray examination of the patients. In some cases the examination was supplemented with hard and soft X-ray films, tomography and electroroentgenography

Fundamental volatility and stock returns : does fundamental volatility explain stock returns?

OpenAIRE

Selboe, Guner K.; Virdee, Jaspal Singh

2017-01-01

In this thesis, we investigate whether the fundamental uncertainty can explain the crosssection of stock returns. To measure the fundamental uncertainty, we estimate rolling standard deviations and accounting betas of four different fundamentals: revenues, gross profit, earnings and cash flows. The standard deviation and the beta of revenues significantly explain returns in the Fama-Macbeth procedure, but only appears significant among smaller stocks in the portfolio formation ...

An elastic-plastic contact model for line contact structures

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, Haibin; Zhao, Yingtao; He, Zhifeng; Zhang, Ruinan; Ma, Shaopeng

2018-06-01

Although numerical simulation tools are now very powerful, the development of analytical models is very important for the prediction of the mechanical behaviour of line contact structures for deeply understanding contact problems and engineering applications. For the line contact structures widely used in the engineering field, few analytical models are available for predicting the mechanical behaviour when the structures deform plastically, as the classic Hertz's theory would be invalid. Thus, the present study proposed an elastic-plastic model for line contact structures based on the understanding of the yield mechanism. A mathematical expression describing the global relationship between load history and contact width evolution of line contact structures was obtained. The proposed model was verified through an actual line contact test and a corresponding numerical simulation. The results confirmed that this model can be used to accurately predict the elastic-plastic mechanical behaviour of a line contact structure.

Domain walls, near-BPS bubbles, and probabilities in the landscape

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ceresole, Anna; Dall'Agata, Gianguido; Giryavets, Alexander; Kallosh, Renata; Linde, Andrei

2006-01-01

We develop a theory of static Bogomol'nyi-Prasad-Sommerfield (BPS) domain walls in stringy landscape and present a large family of BPS walls interpolating between different supersymmetric vacua. Examples include Kachru, Kallosh, Linde, Trivedi models, STU models, type IIB multiple flux vacua, and models with several Minkowski and anti-de Sitter vacua. After the uplifting, some of the vacua become de Sitter (dS), whereas some others remain anti-de Sitter. The near-BPS walls separating these vacua may be seen as bubble walls in the theory of vacuum decay. As an outcome of our investigation of the BPS walls, we found that the decay rate of dS vacua to a collapsing space with a negative vacuum energy can be quite large. The parts of space that experience a decay to a collapsing space, or to a Minkowski vacuum, never return back to dS space. The channels of irreversible vacuum decay serve as sinks for the probability flow. The existence of such sinks is a distinguishing feature of the landscape. We show that it strongly affects the probability distributions in string cosmology

Equilibrium contact angle or the most-stable contact angle?

Science.gov (United States)

Montes Ruiz-Cabello, F J; Rodríguez-Valverde, M A; Cabrerizo-Vílchez, M A

2014-04-01

It is well-established that the equilibrium contact angle in a thermodynamic framework is an "unattainable" contact angle. Instead, the most-stable contact angle obtained from mechanical stimuli of the system is indeed experimentally accessible. Monitoring the susceptibility of a sessile drop to a mechanical stimulus enables to identify the most stable drop configuration within the practical range of contact angle hysteresis. Two different stimuli may be used with sessile drops: mechanical vibration and tilting. The most stable drop against vibration should reveal the changeless contact angle but against the gravity force, it should reveal the highest resistance to slide down. After the corresponding mechanical stimulus, once the excited drop configuration is examined, the focus will be on the contact angle of the initial drop configuration. This methodology needs to map significantly the static drop configurations with different stable contact angles. The most-stable contact angle, together with the advancing and receding contact angles, completes the description of physically realizable configurations of a solid-liquid system. Since the most-stable contact angle is energetically significant, it may be used in the Wenzel, Cassie or Cassie-Baxter equations accordingly or for the surface energy evaluation. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Classifying Returns as Extreme

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christiansen, Charlotte

2014-01-01

I consider extreme returns for the stock and bond markets of 14 EU countries using two classification schemes: One, the univariate classification scheme from the previous literature that classifies extreme returns for each market separately, and two, a novel multivariate classification scheme tha...

Probability an introduction

CERN Document Server

Goldberg, Samuel

1960-01-01

Excellent basic text covers set theory, probability theory for finite sample spaces, binomial theorem, probability distributions, means, standard deviations, probability function of binomial distribution, more. Includes 360 problems with answers for half.

Probability 1/e

Science.gov (United States)

Koo, Reginald; Jones, Martin L.

2011-01-01

Quite a number of interesting problems in probability feature an event with probability equal to 1/e. This article discusses three such problems and attempts to explain why this probability occurs with such frequency.

Return Period of a Sea Storm with at Least Two Waves Higher than a Fixed Threshold

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Felice Arena

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Practical applications in ocean engineering require the long-term analysis for prediction of extreme waves, that identify design conditions. If extreme individual waves are investigated, we need to combine long-term statistical analysis of ocean waves with short-term statistics. The former considers the distribution of standard deviation of free surface displacement in the considered location in a long-time span, of order of 10 years or more. The latter analyzes the distribution of individual wave heights in a sea state, which is a Gaussian process in time domain. Recent advanced approaches enable the combination of the two analyses. In the paper the analytical solution is obtained for the return period of a sea storm with at least two individual waves higher than a fixed level. This solution is based on the application of the Equivalent Triangular Storm model for the representation of actual storms. One of the corollaries of the solution gives the exact expression for the probability that at least two waves higher than fixed level are produced during the lifetime of a structure. The previous solution of return period and the relative probability of exceedance may be effectively applied for the risk analysis of ocean structures.

Application of the Unbounded Probability Distribution of the Johnson System for Floods Estimation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Campos-Aranda Daniel Francisco

2015-09-01

Full Text Available Floods designs constitute a key to estimate the sizing of new water works and to review the hydrological security of existing ones. The most reliable method for estimating their magnitudes associated with certain return periods is to fit a probabilistic model to available records of maximum annual flows. Since such model is at first unknown, several models need to be tested in order to select the most appropriate one according to an arbitrary statistical index, commonly the standard error of fit. Several probability distributions have shown versatility and consistency of results when processing floods records and therefore, its application has been established as a norm or precept. The Johnson System has three families of distributions, one of which is the Log–Normal model with three parameters of fit, which is also the border between the bounded distributions and those with no upper limit. These families of distributions have four adjustment parameters and converge to the standard normal distribution, so that their predictions are obtained with such a model. Having contrasted the three probability distributions established by precept in 31 historical records of hydrological events, the Johnson system is applied to such data. The results of the unbounded distribution of the Johnson system (SJU are compared to the optimal results from the three distributions. It was found that the predictions of the SJU distribution are similar to those obtained with the other models in the low return periods ( 1000 years. Because of its theoretical support, the SJU model is recommended in flood estimation.

Estimation and prediction of maximum daily rainfall at Sagar Island using best fit probability models

Science.gov (United States)

Mandal, S.; Choudhury, B. U.

2015-07-01

Sagar Island, setting on the continental shelf of Bay of Bengal, is one of the most vulnerable deltas to the occurrence of extreme rainfall-driven climatic hazards. Information on probability of occurrence of maximum daily rainfall will be useful in devising risk management for sustaining rainfed agrarian economy vis-a-vis food and livelihood security. Using six probability distribution models and long-term (1982-2010) daily rainfall data, we studied the probability of occurrence of annual, seasonal and monthly maximum daily rainfall (MDR) in the island. To select the best fit distribution models for annual, seasonal and monthly time series based on maximum rank with minimum value of test statistics, three statistical goodness of fit tests, viz. Kolmogorove-Smirnov test (K-S), Anderson Darling test ( A 2 ) and Chi-Square test ( X 2) were employed. The fourth probability distribution was identified from the highest overall score obtained from the three goodness of fit tests. Results revealed that normal probability distribution was best fitted for annual, post-monsoon and summer seasons MDR, while Lognormal, Weibull and Pearson 5 were best fitted for pre-monsoon, monsoon and winter seasons, respectively. The estimated annual MDR were 50, 69, 86, 106 and 114 mm for return periods of 2, 5, 10, 20 and 25 years, respectively. The probability of getting an annual MDR of >50, >100, >150, >200 and >250 mm were estimated as 99, 85, 40, 12 and 03 % level of exceedance, respectively. The monsoon, summer and winter seasons exhibited comparatively higher probabilities (78 to 85 %) for MDR of >100 mm and moderate probabilities (37 to 46 %) for >150 mm. For different recurrence intervals, the percent probability of MDR varied widely across intra- and inter-annual periods. In the island, rainfall anomaly can pose a climatic threat to the sustainability of agricultural production and thus needs adequate adaptation and mitigation measures.

QR-GARCH-M Model for Risk-Return Tradeoff in U.S. Stock Returns and Business Cycles

OpenAIRE

Nyberg, Henri

2010-01-01

In the empirical finance literature findings on the risk return tradeoff in excess stock market returns are ambiguous. In this study, we develop a new QR-GARCH-M model combining a probit model for a binary business cycle indicator and a regime switching GARCH-in-mean model for excess stock market return with the business cycle indicator defining the regime. Estimation results show that there is statistically significant variation in the U.S. excess stock returns over the business cycle. Howev...

Return Migration as Failure or Success?: The Determinants of Return Migration Intentions Among Moroccan Migrants in Europe.

Science.gov (United States)

de Haas, Hein; Fokkema, Tineke; Fihri, Mohamed Fassi

Different migration theories generate competing hypotheses with regard to determinants of return migration. While neoclassical migration theory associates migration to the failure to integrate at the destination, the new economics of labour migration sees return migration as the logical stage after migrants have earned sufficient assets and knowledge and to invest in their origin countries. The projected return is then likely to be postponed for sustained or indefinite periods if integration is unsuccessful. So, from an indication or result of integration failure return is rather seen as a measure of success. Drawing on recent survey data ( N  = 2,832), this article tests these hypotheses by examining the main determinants of return intention among Moroccan migrants across Europe. The results indicate that structural integration through labour market participation, education and the maintenance of economic and social ties with receiving countries do not significantly affect return intentions. At the same time, investments and social ties to Morocco are positively related, and socio-cultural integration in receiving countries is negatively related to return migration intentions. The mixed results corroborate the idea that there is no uniform process of (return) migration and that competing theories might therefore be partly complementary.

Mean-field behavior for the survival probability and the point-to-surface connectivity

CERN Document Server

Sakai, A

2003-01-01

We consider the critical survival probability for oriented percolation and the contact process, and the point-to-surface connectivity for critical percolation. By similarity, let \\rho denote the critical expoents for both quantities. We prove in a unified fashion that, if \\rho exists and if both two-point function and its certain restricted version exhibit the same mean-field behavior, then \\rho=2 for percolation with d>7 and \\rho=1 for the time-oriented models with d>4.

Reducing contact resistance in graphene devices through contact area patterning.

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Joshua T; Franklin, Aaron D; Farmer, Damon B; Dimitrakopoulos, Christos D

2013-04-23

Performance of graphene electronics is limited by contact resistance associated with the metal-graphene (M-G) interface, where unique transport challenges arise as carriers are injected from a 3D metal into a 2D-graphene sheet. In this work, enhanced carrier injection is experimentally achieved in graphene devices by forming cuts in the graphene within the contact regions. These cuts are oriented normal to the channel and facilitate bonding between the contact metal and carbon atoms at the graphene cut edges, reproducibly maximizing "edge-contacted" injection. Despite the reduction in M-G contact area caused by these cuts, we find that a 32% reduction in contact resistance results in Cu-contacted, two-terminal devices, while a 22% reduction is achieved for top-gated graphene transistors with Pd contacts as compared to conventionally fabricated devices. The crucial role of contact annealing to facilitate this improvement is also elucidated. This simple approach provides a reliable and reproducible means of lowering contact resistance in graphene devices to bolster performance. Importantly, this enhancement requires no additional processing steps.

Simulated epidemics in an empirical spatiotemporal network of 50,185 sexual contacts.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luis E C Rocha

2011-03-01

Full Text Available Sexual contact patterns, both in their temporal and network structure, can influence the spread of sexually transmitted infections (STI. Most previous literature has focused on effects of network topology; few studies have addressed the role of temporal structure. We simulate disease spread using SI and SIR models on an empirical temporal network of sexual contacts in high-end prostitution. We compare these results with several other approaches, including randomization of the data, classic mean-field approaches, and static network simulations. We observe that epidemic dynamics in this contact structure have well-defined, rather high epidemic thresholds. Temporal effects create a broad distribution of outbreak sizes, even if the per-contact transmission probability is taken to its hypothetical maximum of 100%. In general, we conclude that the temporal correlations of our network accelerate outbreaks, especially in the early phase of the epidemics, while the network topology (apart from the contact-rate distribution slows them down. We find that the temporal correlations of sexual contacts can significantly change simulated outbreaks in a large empirical sexual network. Thus, temporal structures are needed alongside network topology to fully understand the spread of STIs. On a side note, our simulations further suggest that the specific type of commercial sex we investigate is not a reservoir of major importance for HIV.

A Perishable Inventory Model with Return

Science.gov (United States)

Setiawan, S. W.; Lesmono, D.; Limansyah, T.

2018-04-01

In this paper, we develop a mathematical model for a perishable inventory with return by assuming deterministic demand and inventory dependent demand. By inventory dependent demand, it means that demand at certain time depends on the available inventory at that time with certain rate. In dealing with perishable items, we should consider deteriorating rate factor that corresponds to the decreasing quality of goods. There are also costs involved in this model such as purchasing, ordering, holding, shortage (backordering) and returning costs. These costs compose the total costs in the model that we want to minimize. In the model we seek for the optimal return time and order quantity. We assume that after some period of time, called return time, perishable items can be returned to the supplier at some returning costs. The supplier will then replace them in the next delivery. Some numerical experiments are given to illustrate our model and sensitivity analysis is performed as well. We found that as the deteriorating rate increases, returning time becomes shorter, the optimal order quantity and total cost increases. When considering the inventory-dependent demand factor, we found that as this factor increases, assuming a certain deteriorating rate, returning time becomes shorter, optimal order quantity becomes larger and the total cost increases.

Efficient Probability of Failure Calculations for QMU using Computational Geometry LDRD 13-0144 Final Report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mitchell, Scott A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Ebeida, Mohamed Salah [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Romero, Vicente J. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Swiler, Laura Painton [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Rushdi, Ahmad A. [Univ. of Texas, Austin, TX (United States); Abdelkader, Ahmad [Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States)

2015-09-01

This SAND report summarizes our work on the Sandia National Laboratory LDRD project titled "Efficient Probability of Failure Calculations for QMU using Computational Geometry" which was project #165617 and proposal #13-0144. This report merely summarizes our work. Those interested in the technical details are encouraged to read the full published results, and contact the report authors for the status of the software and follow-on projects.

A Follow-up Study on Return to Work in the Year After Reporting an Occupational Injury Stratified by Outcome of the Workers' Compensation System

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rudbeck, Marianne; Johansen, Jens Peter; Omland, Øyvind

2017-01-01

benefits were granted by the municipalities independently of any compensation claim if sick-listed. RESULTS: Claimants with ongoing claims were the group with the largest proportion remaining on disability benefits. Claimants with rejected claims returned to work at the same rate (occupational disease......) or slower (industrial accident) compared to claimants with recognized claim without compensation the subsequent year and at a faster rate after decision. CONCLUSIONS: Compensation claims and proceedings of the workers' compensation system probably increase time to return to work, other factors as health...

Foundations of probability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fraassen, B.C. van

1979-01-01

The interpretation of probabilities in physical theories are considered, whether quantum or classical. The following points are discussed 1) the functions P(μ, Q) in terms of which states and propositions can be represented, are classical (Kolmogoroff) probabilities, formally speaking, 2) these probabilities are generally interpreted as themselves conditional, and the conditions are mutually incompatible where the observables are maximal and 3) testing of the theory typically takes the form of confronting the expectation values of observable Q calculated with probability measures P(μ, Q) for states μ; hence, of comparing the probabilities P(μ, Q)(E) with the frequencies of occurrence of the corresponding events. It seems that even the interpretation of quantum mechanics, in so far as it concerns what the theory says about the empirical (i.e. actual, observable) phenomena, deals with the confrontation of classical probability measures with observable frequencies. This confrontation is studied. (Auth./C.F.)

Prioritized Contact Transport Stream

Science.gov (United States)

Hunt, Walter Lee, Jr. (Inventor)

2015-01-01

A detection process, contact recognition process, classification process, and identification process are applied to raw sensor data to produce an identified contact record set containing one or more identified contact records. A prioritization process is applied to the identified contact record set to assign a contact priority to each contact record in the identified contact record set. Data are removed from the contact records in the identified contact record set based on the contact priorities assigned to those contact records. A first contact stream is produced from the resulting contact records. The first contact stream is streamed in a contact transport stream. The contact transport stream may include and stream additional contact streams. The contact transport stream may be varied dynamically over time based on parameters such as available bandwidth, contact priority, presence/absence of contacts, system state, and configuration parameters.

Non-Archimedean Probability

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Benci, Vieri; Horsten, Leon; Wenmackers, Sylvia

We propose an alternative approach to probability theory closely related to the framework of numerosity theory: non-Archimedean probability (NAP). In our approach, unlike in classical probability theory, all subsets of an infinite sample space are measurable and only the empty set gets assigned

Aberration changes of the corneal anterior surface following discontinued use of rigid gas permeable contact lenses.

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Qing; Wu, Jiang-Xiu; Zhang, He-Ning; Ye, Sheng; Dong, Shi-Qi; Zhang, Chen-Hao

2013-01-01

To record aberrations with a corneal topographic device on the anterior surface of the cornea at different time-points prior to wearing and following discontinued use of rigid gas permeable (RGP) contact lenses. The effect of wearing RGP on the anterior surface of the cornea was discussed to provide guidance for clinical refractive error correction. The study objects were 24 eyes from 24 patients. All patients underwent identical examination procedures prior to lens use, as well as afterwards, including slit-lamp examination, non-contact tonometer measurement, computer optometry and corneal curvature measurement, subjective refraction test, and corneal topography analysis. The patients wore contact lenses everyday for 1 month and then discontinued. Corneal topographies were recorded at certain time points of 30 minutes, 1 day, 3, 7 and 14 days following use. Total corneal aberration at each time point following discontinued use of RGP contact lenses was less than the time point prior to use. Detailed results were as follows: root mean square (RMS) (pre)=(1.438±0.328)µm, RMS (30 minutes)=(1.076±0.355)µm, RMS (1 day)=(1.362±0.402)µm, RMS (3 days)=(1.373±0.398)µm, RMS (7 days)=(1.387±0.415)µm, and RMS (14 days)=(1.430±0.423)µm. Results showed that at 30 minutes after discontinued use of RGP contact lenses, almost all 2(nd)- and 3(rd)-order aberrations change. Quadrafoil Z10 and spherical Z12 of the 4(th)-order were also changed. Alterations to Z5, Z6, and Z12 at 1 day after discontinued use were significant differences compared with the time period prior to RGP use: Z5 and Z6 decreased, and Z12 increased slightly. Z5 and Z6 remained decreased at 3 days after discontinued use, but Z9 and Z10 continued to increase and Z12 returned to levels prior to RGP use. At 14 days after discontinued use, all aberrations were not significantly different from the values prior to use. The use RGP contact lenses greatly reduced total aberration of the anterior surface of

American Contact Dermatitis Society Contact Allergy Management Program: An Epidemiologic Tool to Determine Relative Prevalence of Contact Allergens.

Science.gov (United States)

Scheman, Andrew; Severson, David

2016-01-01

Data on the prevalence of contact allergy in North America are currently reported by groups of academic contact allergy specialists at select academic centers. Sampling of data from numerous centers across North America, including practices performing more limited patch testing, would provide a broader perspective of contact allergen prevalence in North America. The American Contact Dermatitis Society Contact Allergy Management Program is an ideal tool for collection of epidemiologic data regarding contact allergy prevalence in North America. The aim of the study was to identify the relative prevalence of contact allergy to common contact allergens in North America. Mapping of Contact Allergy Management Program (CAMP) data was performed to allow analysis of how frequently searches were performed for various contact allergens. The number of searches performed for specific allergens provides a measure of the relative prevalence of contact allergy to these allergens. The top 35 allergens for the period from November 18, 2012 to November 18, 2013 are reported. Although these data are useful, specific recommendations for minor alterations to CAMP are discussed, which will allow future CAMP data to be stratified and more powerful. With minor modifications, CAMP can provide a quantum leap in the reporting of contact allergy epidemiologic data in North America.

Handbook of probability

CERN Document Server

Florescu, Ionut

2013-01-01

THE COMPLETE COLLECTION NECESSARY FOR A CONCRETE UNDERSTANDING OF PROBABILITY Written in a clear, accessible, and comprehensive manner, the Handbook of Probability presents the fundamentals of probability with an emphasis on the balance of theory, application, and methodology. Utilizing basic examples throughout, the handbook expertly transitions between concepts and practice to allow readers an inclusive introduction to the field of probability. The book provides a useful format with self-contained chapters, allowing the reader easy and quick reference. Each chapter includes an introductio

Probability-1

CERN Document Server

Shiryaev, Albert N

2016-01-01

This book contains a systematic treatment of probability from the ground up, starting with intuitive ideas and gradually developing more sophisticated subjects, such as random walks, martingales, Markov chains, the measure-theoretic foundations of probability theory, weak convergence of probability measures, and the central limit theorem. Many examples are discussed in detail, and there are a large number of exercises. The book is accessible to advanced undergraduates and can be used as a text for independent study. To accommodate the greatly expanded material in the third edition of Probability, the book is now divided into two volumes. This first volume contains updated references and substantial revisions of the first three chapters of the second edition. In particular, new material has been added on generating functions, the inclusion-exclusion principle, theorems on monotonic classes (relying on a detailed treatment of “π-λ” systems), and the fundamental theorems of mathematical statistics.

Probability Machines: Consistent Probability Estimation Using Nonparametric Learning Machines

Science.gov (United States)

Malley, J. D.; Kruppa, J.; Dasgupta, A.; Malley, K. G.; Ziegler, A.

2011-01-01

Summary Background Most machine learning approaches only provide a classification for binary responses. However, probabilities are required for risk estimation using individual patient characteristics. It has been shown recently that every statistical learning machine known to be consistent for a nonparametric regression problem is a probability machine that is provably consistent for this estimation problem. Objectives The aim of this paper is to show how random forests and nearest neighbors can be used for consistent estimation of individual probabilities. Methods Two random forest algorithms and two nearest neighbor algorithms are described in detail for estimation of individual probabilities. We discuss the consistency of random forests, nearest neighbors and other learning machines in detail. We conduct a simulation study to illustrate the validity of the methods. We exemplify the algorithms by analyzing two well-known data sets on the diagnosis of appendicitis and the diagnosis of diabetes in Pima Indians. Results Simulations demonstrate the validity of the method. With the real data application, we show the accuracy and practicality of this approach. We provide sample code from R packages in which the probability estimation is already available. This means that all calculations can be performed using existing software. Conclusions Random forest algorithms as well as nearest neighbor approaches are valid machine learning methods for estimating individual probabilities for binary responses. Freely available implementations are available in R and may be used for applications. PMID:21915433

Occupational allergic and irritant contact dermatitis in workers exposed to polyurethane foam

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marta Kieć-Świerczyńska

2014-04-01

Full Text Available Objectives: To evaluate sensitization to chemicals present in work environment after an outbreak of contact dermatitis in workers of vehicle equipment factory, exposed to polyurethane foam, based on 4,4'-diphenylmethane diisocyanate (MDI. Material and Methods: From among 300 employees, 21 individuals reporting work-related skin and/or respiratory tract symptoms underwent clinical examination, patch testing, skin prick tests, spirometry and MDI sIgE measurement in serum. Patch tests included isocyanates series, selected rubber additives, metals, fragrances, preservatives, and an antiadhesive agent. Results: Clinical examination revealed current eczema in the area of hands and/or forearms in 10 workers. Positive patch test reactions were found in 10 individuals, the most frequent to diaminodiphenylmethane and 4-phenylenediamine (7 persons. Reactions to an antiadhesive agent were assessed as irritant (5 workers. Except for sensitization to common aeroallergens, no significant abnormalities were found in the remaining tests. Occupational allergic contact dermatitis was diagnosed in 7 workers, irritant contact dermatitis in 10 and coexisiting allergic and irritant contact dermatitis in 3 workers. Conclusions: In workers manufacturing products from polyurethane foam, attention should be paid to the risk of developing contact dermatitis. Skin problems in our study group were attributable probably to insufficient protection of the skin.

Foreign currency returns and systematic risks

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Galsband, V.; Nitschka, T.

2015-01-01

We apply an empirical approximation of the intertemporal capital asset pricing model (ICAPM) to show that cross-sectional dispersion in currency returns can be rationalized by differences in currency excess returns' sensitivities to the market return's cash-flow news component. This finding echoes

Language Contact.

Science.gov (United States)

Nelde, Peter Hans

1995-01-01

Examines the phenomenon of language contact and recent trends in linguistic contact research, which focuses on language use, language users, and language spheres. Also discusses the role of linguistic and cultural conflicts in language contact situations. (13 references) (MDM)

Unification of field theory and maximum entropy methods for learning probability densities

Science.gov (United States)

Kinney, Justin B.

2015-09-01

The need to estimate smooth probability distributions (a.k.a. probability densities) from finite sampled data is ubiquitous in science. Many approaches to this problem have been described, but none is yet regarded as providing a definitive solution. Maximum entropy estimation and Bayesian field theory are two such approaches. Both have origins in statistical physics, but the relationship between them has remained unclear. Here I unify these two methods by showing that every maximum entropy density estimate can be recovered in the infinite smoothness limit of an appropriate Bayesian field theory. I also show that Bayesian field theory estimation can be performed without imposing any boundary conditions on candidate densities, and that the infinite smoothness limit of these theories recovers the most common types of maximum entropy estimates. Bayesian field theory thus provides a natural test of the maximum entropy null hypothesis and, furthermore, returns an alternative (lower entropy) density estimate when the maximum entropy hypothesis is falsified. The computations necessary for this approach can be performed rapidly for one-dimensional data, and software for doing this is provided.

Unification of field theory and maximum entropy methods for learning probability densities.

Science.gov (United States)

Kinney, Justin B

2015-09-01

The need to estimate smooth probability distributions (a.k.a. probability densities) from finite sampled data is ubiquitous in science. Many approaches to this problem have been described, but none is yet regarded as providing a definitive solution. Maximum entropy estimation and Bayesian field theory are two such approaches. Both have origins in statistical physics, but the relationship between them has remained unclear. Here I unify these two methods by showing that every maximum entropy density estimate can be recovered in the infinite smoothness limit of an appropriate Bayesian field theory. I also show that Bayesian field theory estimation can be performed without imposing any boundary conditions on candidate densities, and that the infinite smoothness limit of these theories recovers the most common types of maximum entropy estimates. Bayesian field theory thus provides a natural test of the maximum entropy null hypothesis and, furthermore, returns an alternative (lower entropy) density estimate when the maximum entropy hypothesis is falsified. The computations necessary for this approach can be performed rapidly for one-dimensional data, and software for doing this is provided.

Stock return distribution in the BRICS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

George Adu

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Stock returns in emerging market economies exhibit patterns that are distinctively different from developed countries: returns are noted to be highly volatile and autocorrelated, and long horizon returns are predictable. While these stylized facts are well established, the assumption underlying the distribution of returns is less understood. In particular, the empirical literature continues to rely on the normality assumption as a starting point, and most asset pricing models tend to overstretch this point. This paper questions the rationale behind this supposition and proceeds to test more formally for normality using multivariate joint test for skewness and kurtosis. Additionally, the paper extends the literature by examining a number of empirical regularities for Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (the BRICS for short. Our main findings are that the distribution of stock returns for the BRICS exhibits peakedness with fatter and longer tails, and this is invariant to both the unit of measurement and the time horizon of returns. Volatility clustering is prevalent in all markets, and this decays exponentially for all but Brazil. The relationship between risk and return is found to be significant and risk premiums are prevalent in our sample.

Risk-return of Belgian SRI funds

OpenAIRE

Van Liedekerke, Luc; De Moor, Lieven; Vanwalleghem, Dieter

2007-01-01

We analyse the risk-return profile of Belgian SRI funds versus conventional investment funds. We apply a four-factor conditional Carhart model to establish whether there are significant differences in risk-return profile between an SRI portfolio and a conventional portfolio and test for learning effects in SRI funds. We show that there is no difference in risk-return profile between SRI and conventional funds. If return is not the problem, then what is it that limits the development of an SRI...

Competing Contact Processes on Homogeneous Networks with Tunable Clusterization

Science.gov (United States)

Rybak, Marcin; Kułakowski, Krzysztof

2013-03-01

We investigate two homogeneous networks: the Watts-Strogatz network with mean degree ⟨k⟩ = 4 and the Erdös-Rényi network with ⟨k⟩ = 10. In both kinds of networks, the clustering coefficient C is a tunable control parameter. The network is an area of two competing contact processes, where nodes can be in two states, S or D. A node S becomes D with probability 1 if at least two its mutually linked neighbors are D. A node D becomes S with a given probability p if at least one of its neighbors is S. The competition between the processes is described by a phase diagram, where the critical probability pc depends on the clustering coefficient C. For p > pc the rate of state S increases in time, seemingly to dominate in the whole system. Below pc, the majority of nodes is in the D-state. The numerical results indicate that for the Watts-Strogatz network the D-process is activated at the finite value of the clustering coefficient C, close to 0.3. On the contrary, for the Erdös-Rényi network the transition is observed at the whole investigated range of C.

7 CFR 3560.305 - Return on investment.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 15 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Return on investment. 3560.305 Section 3560.305... AGRICULTURE DIRECT MULTI-FAMILY HOUSING LOANS AND GRANTS Financial Management § 3560.305 Return on investment. (a) Borrower's return on investment. Borrowers may receive a return on their investment (ROI) in...

Janus-faced probability

CERN Document Server

Rocchi, Paolo

2014-01-01

The problem of probability interpretation was long overlooked before exploding in the 20th century, when the frequentist and subjectivist schools formalized two conflicting conceptions of probability. Beyond the radical followers of the two schools, a circle of pluralist thinkers tends to reconcile the opposing concepts. The author uses two theorems in order to prove that the various interpretations of probability do not come into opposition and can be used in different contexts. The goal here is to clarify the multifold nature of probability by means of a purely mathematical approach and to show how philosophical arguments can only serve to deepen actual intellectual contrasts. The book can be considered as one of the most important contributions in the analysis of probability interpretation in the last 10-15 years.

Characteristics of donors who do or do not return to give blood and barriers to their return

Science.gov (United States)

Wevers, Anne; Wigboldus, Daniël H.J.; de Kort, Wim L.A.M.; van Baaren, Rick; Veldhuizen, Ingrid J.T.

2014-01-01

Background In the Netherlands about 50% of whole blood donors return to give blood after an invitation to donate. This study aimed to investigate the characteristics of donor return behaviour and to gain insight into the barriers to blood donation reported by the donors themselves. Materials and methods A total of 4,901 whole blood donors were invited to donate in week 39 of 2009. Barriers mentioned by donors who informed the blood bank for not donating were registered for 1 month. Logistic regression analyses assessed relevant characteristics of return behaviour, such as age and blood type, in men and women separately. Results Of the invited donors, 55% returned to give a donation, whereas 45% did not return. Male donors were more likely to return when they were older, had a higher previous return rate and had no past deferrals. The same pattern was found among women, but was less strong. The main barriers were: time constraints (35%), preference to postpone donation due to general physical problems although being eligible to donate (29%), and being ineligible to donate due to medical deferral criteria (9%). Discussion Specific donor characteristics are associated with return behaviour. Not donating due to time constraints could mean that donors do not feel the urgency of donating blood. Interventions targeted to increase commitment among specific donor groups should be tested further. PMID:23522891

Sample Curation in Support of the OSIRIS-REx Asteroid Sample Return Mission

Science.gov (United States)

Righter, Kevin; Nakamura-Messenger, Keiko

2017-01-01

summary information for each will be presented in an online catalog. b) Bulk Asteroid sample: The Touch and Go Sampling Mechanism (TAGSAM) head will contain up to 1.5 kg of asteroid material. Upon return to Earth, the TAGSAM head with the sample canister will be subjected to a nitrogen purge and then opened in a nitrogen cabinet in Houston. Once the TAGSAM head is removed from the canister, it will be dis-assembled slowly and carefully under nitrogen until the sample can be removed for processing in a dedicated nitrogen glovebox. Bennu surface samples are expected to be sub-cm sized, based on thermal infrared and radar polarization ratio measurements [1]. The upper limit on material collected by the TAGSAM head is 2 cm. Therefore, we will be prepared to handle, subdivide, and characterize materials of a wide grain size (from 10 ?m to 2 cm), and for both organic (UV fluorescence) and inorganic (SEM, FTIR, optical) properties. Representative portions of the bulk sample will be prepared for JAXA (0.5 %; see also [5]) and Canadian Space Agency (4%), with the remaining divided between the science team (75%). c) Contact Pad samples: The base of the TAGSAM head contains 24 contact pads that are designed to trap the upper surface layer of material and thus offer an opportunity to study asteroid samples that have resided at the very top surface of the regolith. Asteroid material is trapped on the pads in spring steel Velcro hooks, and material will have to be removed from these pads by curation specialists in the lab. d) Hardware: Some canister and SRC hardware items will contain information that will be important to understanding the collected samples, including the canister gas filter, temperature strips, flight witness plates, and the TAGSAM and canister parts that might have adhering dust grains. Some challenges remaining for both bulk sample and contact pad samples include: i) working with intermediate size range (200 to 500 micron) samples - a size range NASA has not

Money growth and aggregate stock returns

OpenAIRE

Böing, Tobias; Stadtmann, Georg

2016-01-01

We empirically evaluate the predictive power of money growth measured by M2 for stock returns of the S&P 500 index. We use monthly US data and predict multiperiod returns over 1, 3, and 5 years with long-horizon regressions. In-sample regressions show that money growth is useful for predicting returns. Higher recent money growth has a significantly negative effect on subsequent returns of the S&P 500. An out-of-sample analysis shows that a simple model with money growth as a single predictor ...

Poetic Return in Afghanistan Persian Poem

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Esmaeil Shafagh

2012-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Poetic return movement was started by a group of poets like Moshtagh and Shole Esfehani in the second half of 12 century. Their goal was restoring Persian poem and deliverance of Hindi style decline. Esfahan’s poets initiative was considered only in Iran but in other Persian language and literature areas like India, Afghanistan and Transoxiana it was ignored. After the failure of constitutional Movement in Afghanistan, motion similar poetic return was happened that caused poetic themes, which had gone towards modernism, return to Hindi style again.The present paper attempts to analyze the poetic atmosphere in Afghanistan synchronous the poetic return movement in Iran and investigate socio- political backgrounds of return to Hindi style in Afghanistan after constitution failure.

Ruin probabilities

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Asmussen, Søren; Albrecher, Hansjörg

The book gives a comprehensive treatment of the classical and modern ruin probability theory. Some of the topics are Lundberg's inequality, the Cramér-Lundberg approximation, exact solutions, other approximations (e.g., for heavy-tailed claim size distributions), finite horizon ruin probabilities......, extensions of the classical compound Poisson model to allow for reserve-dependent premiums, Markov-modulation, periodicity, change of measure techniques, phase-type distributions as a computational vehicle and the connection to other applied probability areas, like queueing theory. In this substantially...... updated and extended second version, new topics include stochastic control, fluctuation theory for Levy processes, Gerber–Shiu functions and dependence....

A review of best work-absence management and return-to-work practices for workers with musculoskeletal or common mental disorders.

Science.gov (United States)

Durand, Marie-José; Corbière, Marc; Coutu, Marie-France; Reinharz, Daniel; Albert, Valérie

2014-01-01

Workplace absenteeism is still a curse for developed countries, and more systematic practices need to be adopted to address this issue. To review the literature on best practices for managing work absences related to musculoskeletal or common mental disorders. A review was conducted by performing a search in bibliographic databases and on work-disability research institute websites. Recommendations regarding work-absence management and return-to-work practices were extracted from all the retained documents and organized within a chronological framework. In total, 17 documents were analyzed, leading to identification of common work-absence management and return-to-work practices, the importance of a worker support approach, and recommended roles and responsibilities for stakeholders. These practices were then integrated into a six-step process: (1) time off and recovery period; (2) initial contact with the worker; (3) evaluation of the worker and his job tasks; (4) development of a return-to-work plan with accommodations; (5) work resumption, and (6) follow-up of the return-to-work process. Based on this review, we constructed a comprehensive work-absence management and return-to-work process designed to assist organizations. Our results indicate that such a process must be included within a broader policy of health promotion and job retention. Adaptations will be required for implementation in the workplace.

Evaluation of anti-tuberculosis antibodies in healthy contact and non-contacts persons

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aziz, N; Bukhari, M.H; Muneer, M; Tayyab, M; Chaudhry, N.A.

2006-01-01

This study was conducted to see the presence of the antimycobacterial antibodies in healthy household contacts of tuberculosis patients and healthy normal subjects who have never been in contact with tuberculosis patients. A total of 200 subjects, 120 with history of household contact and 80 without such history were included in the study. Routine Haematological investigations were performed and all the sera of 200 subjects were tested who 19M, 19G and IgA anti tuberculosis antibodies using ELISA technique. There was no difference in the average age of the household contacts and non-contacts. The complaints of pyrexia, night sweats and loss of weight was more in house hold contacts as compared to non-contacts. The awareness about BCG vaccination was equal among the household contacts and non-contacts. The combined serological positivity of the household contacts was 65.8% and the combined serological positivity for non-contacts was 34.1%. There was no statistically significant difference in the presence of 19M among household contacts as compared to non-contacts. However both IgG and 19A were present in significantly higher number of household contacts as compared to non contacts. This study concludes that the persons living in the house with a patient suffering from active pulmonary tuberculosis (household contact) have more chances of being infected with Mycobacterium tuberculosis as compared to the healthy non-contacts. (author)

Mapping probabilities of extreme continental water storage changes from space gravimetry

Science.gov (United States)

Kusche, J.; Eicker, A.; Forootan, E.; Springer, A.; Longuevergne, L.

2016-12-01

Using data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission, we derive statistically robust 'hotspot' regions of high probability of peak anomalous - i.e. with respect to the seasonal cycle - water storage (of up to 0.7 m one-in-five-year return level) and flux (up to 0.14 m/mon). Analysis of, and comparison with, up to 32 years of ERA-Interim reanalysis fields reveals generally good agreement of these hotspot regions to GRACE results, and that most exceptions are located in the Tropics. However, a simulation experiment reveals that differences observed by GRACE are statistically significant, and further error analysis suggests that by around the year 2020 it will be possible to detect temporal changes in the frequency of extreme total fluxes (i.e. combined effects of mainly precipitation and floods) for at least 10-20% of the continental area, assuming that we have a continuation of GRACE by its follow-up GRACE-FO. J. Kusche et al. (2016): Mapping probabilities of extreme continental water storage changes from space gravimetry, Geophysical Research Letters, accepted online, doi:10.1002/2016GL069538

Interpretations of probability

CERN Document Server

Khrennikov, Andrei

2009-01-01

This is the first fundamental book devoted to non-Kolmogorov probability models. It provides a mathematical theory of negative probabilities, with numerous applications to quantum physics, information theory, complexity, biology and psychology. The book also presents an interesting model of cognitive information reality with flows of information probabilities, describing the process of thinking, social, and psychological phenomena.

Common Factors in International Bond Returns

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Driessen, J.J.A.G.; Melenberg, B.; Nijman, T.E.

2000-01-01

In this paper we estimate and interpret the factors that jointly determine bond returns of different maturities in the US, Germany and Japan.We analyze both currency-hedged and unhedged bond returns.For currency-hedged bond returns, we find that five factors explain 96.5% of the variation of bond

Determinants of patient satisfaction and their willingness to return after primary total hip replacement: a cross-sectional study.

Science.gov (United States)

Schaal, Tom; Schoenfelder, Tonio; Klewer, Joerg; Kugler, Joachim

2016-08-08

Surveys of patient satisfaction and their willingness to return can be used for the optimization of processes, improving their quality, and increasing the satisfaction and loyalty in customers. This study looked at the factors significantly associated with patient satisfaction after primary total hip replacement (THR), and which affect the patients' willingness to return to the same hospital for future treatment, even when unrelated to their THR. Data for the study was collected by written survey from 810 patients of 43 hospitals following their THR. Satisfaction and willingness to return were measured using a validated, multidimensional questionnaire, primarily based on six-point scales, which were then evaluated together with routine hospital data, according to bivariate and multivariate analyses. The bivariate analysis showed a strong correlation between satisfaction or willingness to return and the health condition before hospitalization as well as the perceived length of stay. In contrast, the patient's gender and the number of inpatient cases in a hospital with THR had no influence. The binary logistic regression analyses identified three predictors associated with overall satisfaction and seven predictors associated with willingness to return. The strongest factor for both dependent variables was the perceived length of stay, and the weakest factor for satisfaction was the treatment outcome. Overall, with all of the medical and service-related issues considered, high levels of satisfaction were reached. Despite the high satisfaction scores, probable causes for declining the willingness to return were identified. The results provide incentives for hospitals and medical professionals to attain a high satisfaction levels in their THR patients.

Contact Lens Care

Science.gov (United States)

... Consumers Consumer Information by Audience For Women Contact Lens Care Share Tweet Linkedin Pin it More sharing ... www.fda.gov/medwatch Learn More about Contact Lens Care Other Tips on Contact Lenses Decorative Contact ...

26 CFR 301.6103(n)-1 - Disclosure of returns and return information in connection with written contracts or agreements...

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... administration purposes. 301.6103(n)-1 Section 301.6103(n)-1 Internal Revenue INTERNAL REVENUE SERVICE... and Returns Returns and Records § 301.6103(n)-1 Disclosure of returns and return information in... administration purposes. (a) General rule. (1) Pursuant to the provisions of section 6103(n) of the Internal...

Paternal Incarceration and Father–Child Contact in Fragile Families

Science.gov (United States)

Geller, Amanda

2013-01-01

High rates of incarceration in the United States have motivated a broad examination of the effects of parental incarceration on child well-being. Although a growing literature documents challenges facing the children of incarcerated men, most incarcerated fathers lived apart from their children before their arrest, raising questions of whether they were sufficiently involved with their families for their incarceration to affect their children. The author used the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study (N = 4,071) to examine father–child contact among incarcerated fathers and found that most incarcerated fathers maintained a degree of contact with their children, through either coresidence or visitation. Moreover, the results revealed robust reductions in both father–child coresidence and visitation when fathers are incarcerated—between 18% and 20% for coresidence, and 30% to 50% for the probability of visitation. The findings suggest that these reductions are driven by both incapacitation while incarcerated and union dissolution upon release. PMID:24839304

Paternal Incarceration and Father-Child Contact in Fragile Families.

Science.gov (United States)

Geller, Amanda

2013-10-01

High rates of incarceration in the United States have motivated a broad examination of the effects of parental incarceration on child well-being. Although a growing literature documents challenges facing the children of incarcerated men, most incarcerated fathers lived apart from their children before their arrest, raising questions of whether they were sufficiently involved with their families for their incarceration to affect their children. The author used the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study (N = 4,071) to examine father-child contact among incarcerated fathers and found that most incarcerated fathers maintained a degree of contact with their children, through either coresidence or visitation. Moreover, the results revealed robust reductions in both father-child coresidence and visitation when fathers are incarcerated-between 18% and 20% for coresidence, and 30% to 50% for the probability of visitation. The findings suggest that these reductions are driven by both incapacitation while incarcerated and union dissolution upon release.

Probability of identification: a statistical model for the validation of qualitative botanical identification methods.

Science.gov (United States)

LaBudde, Robert A; Harnly, James M

2012-01-01

A qualitative botanical identification method (BIM) is an analytical procedure that returns a binary result (1 = Identified, 0 = Not Identified). A BIM may be used by a buyer, manufacturer, or regulator to determine whether a botanical material being tested is the same as the target (desired) material, or whether it contains excessive nontarget (undesirable) material. The report describes the development and validation of studies for a BIM based on the proportion of replicates identified, or probability of identification (POI), as the basic observed statistic. The statistical procedures proposed for data analysis follow closely those of the probability of detection, and harmonize the statistical concepts and parameters between quantitative and qualitative method validation. Use of POI statistics also harmonizes statistical concepts for botanical, microbiological, toxin, and other analyte identification methods that produce binary results. The POI statistical model provides a tool for graphical representation of response curves for qualitative methods, reporting of descriptive statistics, and application of performance requirements. Single collaborator and multicollaborative study examples are given.

Loss aversion, large deviation preferences and optimal portfolio weights for some classes of return processes

Science.gov (United States)

Duffy, Ken; Lobunets, Olena; Suhov, Yuri

2007-05-01

We propose a model of a loss averse investor who aims to maximize his expected wealth under certain constraints. The constraints are that he avoids, with high probability, incurring an (suitably defined) unacceptable loss. The methodology employed comes from the theory of large deviations. We explore a number of fundamental properties of the model and illustrate its desirable features. We demonstrate its utility by analyzing assets that follow some commonly used financial return processes: Fractional Brownian Motion, Jump Diffusion, Variance Gamma and Truncated Lévy.

On Selection of the Probability Distribution for Representing the Maximum Annual Wind Speed in East Cairo, Egypt

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

El-Shanshoury, Gh. I.; El-Hemamy, S.T.

2013-01-01

The main objective of this paper is to identify an appropriate probability model and best plotting position formula which represent the maximum annual wind speed in east Cairo. This model can be used to estimate the extreme wind speed and return period at a particular site as well as to determine the radioactive release distribution in case of accident occurrence at a nuclear power plant. Wind speed probabilities can be estimated by using probability distributions. An accurate determination of probability distribution for maximum wind speed data is very important in expecting the extreme value . The probability plots of the maximum annual wind speed (MAWS) in east Cairo are fitted to six major statistical distributions namely: Gumbel, Weibull, Normal, Log-Normal, Logistic and Log- Logistic distribution, while eight plotting positions of Hosking and Wallis, Hazen, Gringorten, Cunnane, Blom, Filliben, Benard and Weibull are used for determining exceedance of their probabilities. A proper probability distribution for representing the MAWS is selected by the statistical test criteria in frequency analysis. Therefore, the best plotting position formula which can be used to select appropriate probability model representing the MAWS data must be determined. The statistical test criteria which represented in: the probability plot correlation coefficient (PPCC), the root mean square error (RMSE), the relative root mean square error (RRMSE) and the maximum absolute error (MAE) are used to select the appropriate probability position and distribution. The data obtained show that the maximum annual wind speed in east Cairo vary from 44.3 Km/h to 96.1 Km/h within duration of 39 years . Weibull plotting position combined with Normal distribution gave the highest fit, most reliable, accurate predictions and determination of the wind speed in the study area having the highest value of PPCC and lowest values of RMSE, RRMSE and MAE

Sustainable Mars Sample Return

Science.gov (United States)

Alston, Christie; Hancock, Sean; Laub, Joshua; Perry, Christopher; Ash, Robert

2011-01-01

The proposed Mars sample return mission will be completed using natural Martian resources for the majority of its operations. The system uses the following technologies: In-Situ Propellant Production (ISPP), a methane-oxygen propelled Mars Ascent Vehicle (MAV), a carbon dioxide powered hopper, and a hydrogen fueled balloon system (large balloons and small weather balloons). The ISPP system will produce the hydrogen, methane, and oxygen using a Sabatier reactor. a water electrolysis cell, water extracted from the Martian surface, and carbon dioxide extracted from the Martian atmosphere. Indigenous hydrogen will fuel the balloon systems and locally-derived methane and oxygen will fuel the MAV for the return of a 50 kg sample to Earth. The ISPP system will have a production cycle of 800 days and the estimated overall mission length is 1355 days from Earth departure to return to low Earth orbit. Combining these advanced technologies will enable the proposed sample return mission to be executed with reduced initial launch mass and thus be more cost efficient. The successful completion of this mission will serve as the next step in the advancement of Mars exploration technology.

Apparent contact angle and contact angle hysteresis on liquid infused surfaces.

Science.gov (United States)

Semprebon, Ciro; McHale, Glen; Kusumaatmaja, Halim

2016-12-21

We theoretically investigate the apparent contact angle and contact angle hysteresis of a droplet placed on a liquid infused surface. We show that the apparent contact angle is not uniquely defined by material parameters, but also has a dependence on the relative size between the droplet and its surrounding wetting ridge formed by the infusing liquid. We derive a closed form expression for the contact angle in the limit of vanishing wetting ridge, and compute the correction for small but finite ridge, which corresponds to an effective line tension term. We also predict contact angle hysteresis on liquid infused surfaces generated by the pinning of the contact lines by the surface corrugations. Our analytical expressions for both the apparent contact angle and contact angle hysteresis can be interpreted as 'weighted sums' between the contact angles of the infusing liquid relative to the droplet and surrounding gas phases, where the weighting coefficients are given by ratios of the fluid surface tensions.

Evaluation of metal–nanowire electrical contacts by measuring contact end resistance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Park, Hongsik; Beresford, Roderic; Xu, Jimmy; Ha, Ryong; Choi, Heon-Jin; Shin, Hyunjung

2012-01-01

It is known, but often unappreciated, that the performance of nanowire (NW)-based electrical devices can be significantly affected by electrical contacts between electrodes and NWs, sometimes to the extent that it is really the contacts that determine the performance. To correctly understand and design NW device operation, it is thus important to carefully measure the contact resistance and evaluate the contact parameters, specific contact resistance and transfer length. A four-terminal pattern or a transmission line model (TLM) pattern has been widely used to measure contact resistance of NW devices and the TLM has been typically used to extract contact parameters of NW devices. However, the conventional method assumes that the electrical properties of semiconducting NW regions covered by a metal are not changed after electrode formation. In this study, we report that the conventional methods for contact evaluation can give rise to considerable errors because of an altered property of the NW under the electrodes. We demonstrate that more correct contact resistance can be measured from the TLM pattern rather than the four-terminal pattern and correct contact parameters including the effects of changed NW properties under electrodes can be evaluated by using the contact end resistance measurement method. (paper)

Who's holding the baby? A prospective diary study of the contact patterns of mothers with an infant.

Science.gov (United States)

Campbell, Patricia Therese; McVernon, Jodie; Shrestha, Niraj; Nathan, Paula M; Geard, Nicholas

2017-09-20

Models of infectious disease are increasingly utilising empirical contact data to quantify the number of potentially infectious contacts between age groups. While a growing body of data is being collected on contact patterns across many populations, less attention has been paid to the social contacts of young infants. We collected information on the social contacts of primary carers of young infants and investigated their potential for use as a proxy for contacts made by their infant. We recruited primary carers of infants under one year of age residing in two geographically, demographically and socioeconomically distinct local government areas of Melbourne, Australia - Boroondara and Hume - including a sub-group of Turkish-speaking participants. Participants recorded their own contacts in a paper diary and noted whether their infant was present or absent. Information collected included times at an address; description of location; and details on people contacted at the location. Descriptive summary measures and distributions of contacts by location type, intensity, day of contact and by age are reported. Of the 226 participants recruited, 220 completed diaries were returned. Participant contact patterns were similar across all groups, with respect to the types of locations, intensity and day of contact, with some variation in the number of unique daily contacts. The infant was present at around 85% of locations at which the primary carer contacted other individuals. The majority of contacts occurring when the infant was present were in Own Home (32%), Retail and Hospitality (18%) and Transport (18%) settings. The mean daily number of unique contacts by infants was estimated as 9.1, 8.7 and 6.5 in Boroondara, Hume (English) and Hume (Turkish), respectively, with a similar age distribution across each of our surveyed groups. Our demonstration that contact patterns of mothers with infants are reasonably robust to socioeconomic and cultural differences is a step

Contextualizing Intergroup Contact: Do Political Party Cues Enhance Contact Effects?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sønderskov, Kim Mannemar; Thomsen, Jens Peter Frølund

2015-01-01

This article examines intergroup contact effects in different political contexts. We expand on previous efforts of social psychologists by incorporating the messages of political parties as a contextual trigger of group membership awareness in contact situations. We argue that the focus among...... political parties on us-them categorizations heightens the awareness of group memberships. This focus in turn enhances the positive intergroup contact effect by stimulating majority members to perceive contacted persons as prototypical outgroup members. A multilevel analysis of 22 countries and almost 37......,000 individuals confirms that the ability of intergroup contact to reduce antiforeigner sentiment increases when political parties focus intensively on immigration issues and cultural differences. Specifically, both workplace contact and interethnic friendship become more effective in reducing antiforeigner...

Utility allowed returns and market extremes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Murry, D.A.; Nan, G.D.; Harrington, B.M.

1993-01-01

In recent years interest rates have fluctuated from exceptionally high levels in the early 1980s to their current levels, the lowest in two decades. Observers and analysts generally have assumed that allowed returns by regulatory commissions follow the movement of interest rates; indeed some analysts use a risk premium method to estimate the cost of common equity, assuming a constant and linear relationship between interest rates and the cost of common equity. That suggests we could expect a relatively stable relationship between interest rates and allowed returns, as well. However, a simple comparison of allowed returns and interest rates shows that this is not the case in recent years. The relationship between market interest rates and the returns allowed by commissions varies and is obviously a great deal more complicated. Empirically, there appears to be only a narrow range where market interest rates significantly affect the allowed returns on common stock set by state commissions, at least for electric and combination utilities. If rates are at historically low levels, allowed returns based largely on market rates will hasten subsequent rate filings, and commissions appear to look beyond the low rate levels. Conversely, it appears that regulators do not let historically high market rates determine allowed returns either. At either high or low interest levels, caution seems to be the policy

Improving Ranking Using Quantum Probability

OpenAIRE

Melucci, Massimo

2011-01-01

The paper shows that ranking information units by quantum probability differs from ranking them by classical probability provided the same data used for parameter estimation. As probability of detection (also known as recall or power) and probability of false alarm (also known as fallout or size) measure the quality of ranking, we point out and show that ranking by quantum probability yields higher probability of detection than ranking by classical probability provided a given probability of ...

Collective animal behavior from Bayesian estimation and probability matching.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alfonso Pérez-Escudero

2011-11-01

Full Text Available Animals living in groups make movement decisions that depend, among other factors, on social interactions with other group members. Our present understanding of social rules in animal collectives is mainly based on empirical fits to observations, with less emphasis in obtaining first-principles approaches that allow their derivation. Here we show that patterns of collective decisions can be derived from the basic ability of animals to make probabilistic estimations in the presence of uncertainty. We build a decision-making model with two stages: Bayesian estimation and probabilistic matching. In the first stage, each animal makes a Bayesian estimation of which behavior is best to perform taking into account personal information about the environment and social information collected by observing the behaviors of other animals. In the probability matching stage, each animal chooses a behavior with a probability equal to the Bayesian-estimated probability that this behavior is the most appropriate one. This model derives very simple rules of interaction in animal collectives that depend only on two types of reliability parameters, one that each animal assigns to the other animals and another given by the quality of the non-social information. We test our model by obtaining theoretically a rich set of observed collective patterns of decisions in three-spined sticklebacks, Gasterosteus aculeatus, a shoaling fish species. The quantitative link shown between probabilistic estimation and collective rules of behavior allows a better contact with other fields such as foraging, mate selection, neurobiology and psychology, and gives predictions for experiments directly testing the relationship between estimation and collective behavior.

Return to Play and Future ACL Injury Risk Following ACL Reconstruction In Soccer Athletes From the MOON Group

Science.gov (United States)

Brophy, Robert H.; Schmitz, Leah; Wright, Rick W.; Dunn, Warren R.; Parker, Richard D.; Andrish, Jack T.; McCarty, Eric C.; Spindler, Kurt P.

2013-01-01

Background There is limited information on outcomes and return to play (RTP) after ACL reconstruction (ACLR) in soccer athletes. Hypothesis The purpose of this study was to (i) test the hypotheses that player sex, side of injury and graft choice do not influence RTP, and (ii) define the risk for future ACL injury in soccer players after ACLR. Study design Retrospective cohort study, Level II. Methods Soccer players in a prospective cohort were contacted to determine RTP following ACLR. Information regarding if and when they returned to play, their current playing status, the primary reason they stopped playing soccer (if relevant) and incidence of subsequent ACL surgery was recorded. Results Initially, 72% of 100 soccer athletes (55 male, 45 female) with a mean age of 24.2 years at the time of ACL reconstruction returned to soccer. At average follow up of 7.0 years, 36% were still playing, a significant decrease compared to initial RTP (psoccer athletes had undergone further ACL surgery, including 9 on the contralateral knee and 3 on the ipsilateral knee. In a univariate analysis, females were more likely to have future ACL surgery (20% v. 5.5%, p=0.03). Soccer athletes who underwent ACLR on their non-dominant limb had a higher future rate of contra-lateral ACLR (16%) than soccer athletes who underwent ACLR on their dominant limb (3.5%) (p=0.03). Conclusion Younger and male soccer players are more likely to return to play after ACL reconstruction. Return to soccer following ACLR declines over time. PMID:23002201

Measuring contact area in a sliding human finger-pad contact.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, X; Carré, M J; Zhang, Q; Lu, Z; Matcher, S J; Lewis, R

2018-02-01

The work outlined in this paper was aimed at achieving further understanding of skin frictional behaviour by investigating the contact area between human finger-pads and flat surfaces. Both the static and the dynamic contact areas (in macro- and micro-scales) were measured using various techniques, including ink printing, optical coherence tomography (OCT) and Digital Image Correlation (DIC). In the studies of the static measurements using ink printing, the experimental results showed that the apparent and the real contact area increased with load following a piecewise linear correlation function for a finger-pad in contact with paper sheets. Comparisons indicated that the OCT method is a reliable and effective method to investigate the real contact area of a finger-pad and allow micro-scale analysis. The apparent contact area (from the DIC measurements) was found to reduce with time in the transition from the static phase to the dynamic phase while the real area of contact (from OCT) increased. The results from this study enable the interaction between finger-pads and contact object surface to be better analysed, and hence improve the understanding of skin friction. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

26 CFR 301.6019-1 - Gift tax returns.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... 26 Internal Revenue 18 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Gift tax returns. 301.6019-1 Section 301.6019-1... ADMINISTRATION PROCEDURE AND ADMINISTRATION Information and Returns Returns and Records § 301.6019-1 Gift tax returns. For provisions relating to requirement of gift tax returns, see §§ 25.6019-1 to 25.6019-4...

Lessons Learned: Mechanical Component and Tribology Activities in Support of Return to Flight

Science.gov (United States)

Handschuh, Robert F.; Zaretsky, Erwin V.

2017-01-01

The February 2003 loss of the Space Shuttle Columbia resulted in NASA Management revisiting every critical system onboard this very complex, reusable space vehicle in a an effort to Return to Flight. Many months after the disaster, contact between NASA Johnson Space Center and NASA Glenn Research Center evolved into an in-depth assessment of the actuator drive systems for the Rudder Speed Brake and Body Flap Systems. The actuators are CRIT 1-1 systems that classifies them as failure of any of the actuators could result in loss of crew and vehicle. Upon further evaluation of these actuator systems and the resulting issues uncovered, several research activities were initiated, conducted, and reported to the NASA Space Shuttle Program Management. The papers contained in this document are the contributions of many researchers from NASA Glenn Research Center and Marshall Space Flight Center as part of a Lessons Learned on mechanical actuation systems as used in space applications. Many of the findings contained in this document were used as a basis to safely Return to Flight for the remaining Space Shuttle Fleet until their retirement.

Application of Probability Calculations to the Study of the Permissible Step and Touch Potentials to Ensure Personnel Safety

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eisawy, E.A.

2011-01-01

The aim of this paper is to develop a practical method to evaluate the actual step and touch potential distributions in order to determine the risk of failure of the grounding system. The failure probability, indicating the safety level of the grounding system, is related to both applied (stress) and withstand (strength) step or touch potentials. The probability distributions of the applied step and touch potentials as well as the corresponding withstand step and touch potentials which represent the capability of the human body to resist stress potentials are presented. These two distributions are used to evaluate the failure probability of the grounding system which denotes the probability that the applied potential exceeds the withstand potential. The method is accomplished in considering the resistance of the human body, the foot contact resistance and the fault clearing time as an independent random variables, rather than fixed values as treated in the previous analysis in determining the safety requirements for a given grounding system

Detecting The Expected Rate of Return Volatility of Financing Instruments of Indonesian Islamic Banking through GARCH Modeling (Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nurul Huda

2015-04-01

Full Text Available Objective - Islamic banks are banks which its activities, both fund raising and funds distribution are on the basis of Islamic principles, namely buying and selling and profit sharing. Islamic banking is aimed at supporting the implementation of national development in order to improve justice, togetherness, and equitable distribution of welfare. In pursuit of supporting the implementation of national development, Islamic banking often faced stability problems of financing instruments being operated. In this case, it is measured by the gap between the actual rate of return and the expected rate of return. The individual actual RoR of this instrument will generate an expected rate of return. This raises the gap or difference between the actual rate of return and the expected rate of return of individual instruments, which in this case is called the abnormal rate of return. The stability of abnormal rate of return of individual instruments is certainly influenced by the stability of the expected rate of return. Expected rate of return has a volatility or fluctuation levels for each financing instrument. It is also a key element or material basis for the establishment of a variance of individual instruments. Variance in this case indicates the level of uncertainty of the rate of return. Individual variance is the origin of the instrument base for variance in the portfolio finance that further a portfolio analysis. So, this paper is going to analyze the level of expected RoR volatility as an initial step to see and predict the stability of the fluctuations in the rate of return of Indonesian Islamic financing instruments.Methods – Probability of Occurence, Expected Rate of Return (RoR and GARCH (Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity.Results - The expected RoR volatility of the murabaha and istishna financing instruments tend to be more volatile than expected RoR volatility of musharaka and qardh financing instruments

A Comparative Study on the Positive Lightning Return Stroke Electric Fields in Different Meteorological Conditions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chin-Leong Wooi

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Positive cloud-ground lightning is considerably more complex and less studied compared to the negative lightning. This paper aims to measure and characterize the significant parameters of positive return strokes electric field, namely, the zero-to-peak rise time, 10–90% rise time, slow front duration, fast transition rise time (10–90%, zero-crossing time, and opposite polarity overshoot relative to peak. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first time such detailed characteristics of positive lightning in Malaysia are thoroughly analyzed. A total of 41 positive lightning flashes containing 48 return strokes were analyzed. The average multiplicity is 1.2 strokes per flash. The majority of positive lightning was initiated from the primary positive charge rather than as a byproduct of in-cloud discharges. The cumulative probability distribution of rise time parameters, opposite polarity overshoot relative to peak, and slow front amplitude relative to peak are presented. A comparison between studies in four countries representing tropic, subtropic, and temperate regions was also carried out. Measured parameters in Florida, Sweden, and Japan are generally lower than those in Malaysia. Positive lightning occurrences in tropical regions should be further studied and analyzed to improve our current understanding on positive return strokes.

Electric contact arcing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cuthrell, R.E.

1976-01-01

Electrical contacts must function properly in many types of components used in nuclear weapon systems. Design, application, and testing of these components require detailed knowledge of chemical and physical phenomena associated with stockpile storage, stockpile testing, and operation. In the past, investigation of these phenomena has led to significant discoveries on the effects of surface contaminants, friction and wear, and the mechanics of closure on contact performance. A recent investigation of contact arcing phenomena which revealed that, preceding contact closure, arcs may occur at voltages lower than had been previously known is described. This discovery is important, since arcing may damage contacts, and repetitive testing of contacts performed as part of a quality assurance program might produce cumulative damage that would yield misleading life-test data and could prevent proper operation of the contacts at some time in the future. This damage can be avoided by determining the conditions under which arcing occurs, and ensuring that these conditions are avoided in contact testing

Stock Returns and Risk: Evidence from Quantile

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Thomas C. Chiang

2012-12-01

Full Text Available This paper employs weighted least squares to examine the risk-return relation by applying high-frequency data from four major stock indexes in the US market and finds some evidence in favor of a positive relation between the mean of the excess returns and expected risk. However, by using quantile regressions, we find that the risk-return relation moves from negative to positive as the returns’ quantile increases. A positive risk-return relation is valid only in the upper quantiles. The evidence also suggests that intraday skewness plays a dominant role in explaining the variations of excess returns.

Application of contact stabilization activated sludge for enhancing biological phosphorus removal (EBPR in domestic wastewater

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ehab M. Rashed

2014-04-01

Full Text Available The experiment has been performed in order to investigate the effect of using contact stabilization activated sludge as an application of enhancing biological phosphorous removal (EBPR by using contact tank as a phosphorus uptake zone and using thickening tank as a phosphorus release zone. The study involved the construction of a pilot plant which was setup in Quhafa waste water treatment plant (WWTP that included contact, final sedimentation, stabilization and thickening tanks, respectively with two returns sludge in this system one of them to contact tank and another to stabilization tank. Then observation of the uptake and release of total phosphorus by achievement through two batch test using sludge samples from thickener and final sedimentations. Results showed the removal efficiencies of COD, BOD and TP for this pilot plant with the range of 94%, 85.44% and 80.54%, respectively. On the other hand the results of batch tests showed that the reason of high ability of phosphorus removal for this pilot plant related to the high performance of microorganisms for phosphorus accumulating. Finally the mechanism of this pilot plant depends on the removal of the phosphorus from the domestic waste water as a concentrated TP solution from the supernatant above the thickening zone not through waste sludge like traditional systems.

The influence of the spin-dependent phases of tunneling electrons on the conductance of a point ferromagnet/isolator/d-wave superconductor contact.

Science.gov (United States)

Vodopyanov, B P

2010-05-12

The influence of the spin-dependent phase shifts (SDPSs) associated with the electronic reflection and transmission amplitudes acquired by electrons upon scattering at the potential barrier on the Andreev reflection probability of electron and hole excitations for a ferromagnet/isolator/d-wave superconductor (FIS) contact and on the charge conductance of the FIS contact is studied. Various superconductor orientations are considered. It has been found that for strong ferromagnets and ultrathin interface potential for the {110} oriented d-wave superconductor the presence of the SDPS can lead to the appearance of finite-voltage peaks in the charge conductance of the F/I/d-wave superconductor contact. On the contrary, for the {100} orientation of the d-wave superconductor the presence of the SDPS can lead to restoration of the zero-voltage peak and suppression of finite-voltage peaks. The spin-dependent amplitudes of the Andreev reflection probability and energy levels of the spin-dependent Andreev bound states are found.

A Method for Choosing the Best Samples for Mars Sample Return.

Science.gov (United States)

Gordon, Peter R; Sephton, Mark A

2018-05-01

Success of a future Mars Sample Return mission will depend on the correct choice of samples. Pyrolysis-FTIR can be employed as a triage instrument for Mars Sample Return. The technique can thermally dissociate minerals and organic matter for detection. Identification of certain mineral types can determine the habitability of the depositional environment, past or present, while detection of organic matter may suggest past or present habitation. In Mars' history, the Theiikian era represents an attractive target for life search missions and the acquisition of samples. The acidic and increasingly dry Theiikian may have been habitable and followed a lengthy neutral and wet period in Mars' history during which life could have originated and proliferated to achieve relatively abundant levels of biomass with a wide distribution. Moreover, the sulfate minerals produced in the Theiikian are also known to be good preservers of organic matter. We have used pyrolysis-FTIR and samples from a Mars analog ferrous acid stream with a thriving ecosystem to test the triage concept. Pyrolysis-FTIR identified those samples with the greatest probability of habitability and habitation. A three-tier scoring system was developed based on the detection of (i) organic signals, (ii) carbon dioxide and water, and (iii) sulfur dioxide. The presence of each component was given a score of A, B, or C depending on whether the substance had been detected, tentatively detected, or not detected, respectively. Single-step (for greatest possible sensitivity) or multistep (for more diagnostic data) pyrolysis-FTIR methods informed the assignments. The system allowed the highest-priority samples to be categorized as AAA (or A*AA if the organic signal was complex), while the lowest-priority samples could be categorized as CCC. Our methods provide a mechanism with which to rank samples and identify those that should take the highest priority for return to Earth during a Mars Sample Return mission. Key Words

Aberration changes of the corneal anterior surface following discontinued use of rigid gas permeable contact lenses

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shi-Qi Dong

2013-04-01

Full Text Available AIM: To record aberrations with a corneal topographic device on the anterior surface of the cornea at different time-points prior to wearing and following discontinued use of rigid gas permeable (RGP contact lenses. The effect of wearing RGP on the anterior surface of the cornea was discussed to provide guidance for clinical refractive error correction. METHODS: The study objects were 24 eyes from 24 patients. All patients underwent identical examination procedures prior to lens use, as well as afterwards, including slit-lamp examination, non-contact tonometer measurement, computer optometry and corneal curvature measurement, subjective refraction test, and corneal topography analysis. The patients wore contact lenses everyday for 1 month and then discontinued. Corneal topographies were recorded at certain time points of 30 minutes, 1 day, 3, 7 and 14 days following use. RESULTS: Total corneal aberration at each time point following discontinued use of RGP contact lenses was less than the time point prior to use. Detailed results were as follows:root mean square (RMS (pre=(1.438±0.328μm, RMS (30 minutes=(1.076±0.355μm, RMS (1 day=(1.362±0.402μm, RMS (3 days=(1.373±0.398μm, RMS (7 days=(1.387±0.415μm, and RMS (14 days=(1.430±0.423μm. Results showed that at 30 minutes after discontinued use of RGP contact lenses, almost all 2nd- and 3rd-order aberrations change. Quadrafoil Z10 and spherical Z12 of the 4th-order were also changed. Alterations to Z5, Z6, and Z12 at 1 day after discontinued use were significant differences compared with the time period prior to RGP use:Z5 and Z6 decreased, and Z12 increased slightly. Z5 and Z6 remained decreased at 3 days after discontinued use, but Z9 and Z10 continued to increase and Z12 returned to levels prior to RGP use. At 14 days after discontinued use, all aberrations were not significantly different from the values prior to use. CONCLUSION: The use RGP contact lenses greatly reduced total

Catching Stardust and Bringing it Home: The Astronomical Importance of Sample Return

Science.gov (United States)

Brownlee, D.

2002-12-01

The return of lunar samples by the Apollo program provided the first opportunity to perform detailed laboratory studies of ancient solid materials from a known astronomical body. The highly detailed study of the samples, using the best available laboratory instruments and techniques, revolutionized our understanding of the Moon and provided fundamental insight into the remarkable and violent processes that occur early in the history of moons and terrestrial planets. This type of astronomical paleontology is only possible with samples and yet the last US sample return was made by Apollo 17- over thirty years ago! The NASA Stardust mission, began a new era of sample missions with its 1999 launch to retrieve samples from the short period comet Wild 2. Genesis (a solar wind collector) was launched in 2001, the Japanese MUSES-C asteroid sample return mission will launch in 2003 and Mars sample return missions are under study. All of these missions will use sophisticated ground-based instrumentation to provide types of information that cannot be obtained by astronomical and spacecraft remote sensing methods. In the case of Stardust, the goal is to determine the fundamental nature of the initial solid building blocks of solar systems at atomic-scale spatial resolution. The samples returned by the mission will be samples from the Kuiper Belt region and they are probably composed of submicron silicate and organic materials of both presolar and nebular origin. Unlocking the detailed records contained in the elemental, chemical, isotopic and mineralogical composition of these tiny components can only be appropriately explored with full power, precision and flexibility of laboratory instrumentation. Laboratory instrumentation has the advantage that is state-of-the-art and is not limited by serious considerations of power, mass, cost or even reliability. The comparison of the comet sample, accumulated beyond Neptune, with asteroidal meteorites that accumulated just beyond the

On the Possibility of Assigning Probabilities to Singular Cases, or: Probability Is Subjective Too!

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mark R. Crovelli

2009-06-01

Full Text Available Both Ludwig von Mises and Richard von Mises claimed that numerical probability could not be legitimately applied to singular cases. This paper challenges this aspect of the von Mises brothers’ theory of probability. It is argued that their denial that numerical probability could be applied to singular cases was based solely upon Richard von Mises’ exceptionally restrictive definition of probability. This paper challenges Richard von Mises’ definition of probability by arguing that the definition of probability necessarily depends upon whether the world is governed by time-invariant causal laws. It is argued that if the world is governed by time-invariant causal laws, a subjective definition of probability must be adopted. It is further argued that both the nature of human action and the relative frequency method for calculating numerical probabilities both presuppose that the world is indeed governed by time-invariant causal laws. It is finally argued that the subjective definition of probability undercuts the von Mises claim that numerical probability cannot legitimately be applied to singular, non-replicable cases.

Integrated science and engineering for the OSIRIS-REx asteroid sample return mission

Science.gov (United States)

Lauretta, D.

2014-07-01

, photometric, spectroscopic, thermal, regolith, and asteroid environmental properties. We have captured this information in a mission configuration-controlled document called the Design Reference Asteroid. This information is used across the project to establish the environmental requirements for the flight system and for overall mission design. Maintaining a Pristine Sample: OSIRIS-REx is driven by the top-level science objective to return >60 g of pristine, carbonaceous regolith from asteroid Bennu. We define a "pristine sample" to mean that no foreign material introduced into the sample hampers our scientific analysis. Basically, we know that some contamination will take place --- we just have to document it so that we can subtract it from our analysis of the returned sample. Engineering contamination requirements specify cleanliness in terms of particle counts and thin- films residues --- scientists define it in terms of bulk elemental and organic abundances. After initial discussions with our Contamination Engineers, we agreed on known, albeit challenging, particle and thin-film contamination levels for the Touch-and-Go Sample Acquisition Mechanism (TAGSAM) and the Sample Return Capsule. These levels are achieved using established cleaning procedures while minimizing interferences for sample analysis. Selecting a Sample Site: The Sample Site Selection decision is based on four key data products: Deliverability, Safety, Sampleability, and Science Value Maps. Deliverability quantifies the probability that the Flight Dynamics team can deliver the spacecraft to the desired location on the asteroid surface. Safety maps assess candidate sites against the capabilities of the spacecraft. Sampleability requires an assessment of the asteroid surface properties vs. TAGSAM capabilities. Scientific value maximizes the probability that the collected sample contains organics and volatiles and can be placed in a geological context definitive enough to determine sample history. Science

Does Aggregated Returns Disclosure Increase Portfolio Risk Taking?

Science.gov (United States)

Beshears, John; Choi, James J; Laibson, David; Madrian, Brigitte C

2017-06-01

Many experiments have found that participants take more investment risk if they see returns less frequently, see portfolio-level returns (rather than each individual asset's returns), or see long-horizon (rather than one-year) historical return distributions. In contrast, we find that such information aggregation treatments do not affect total equity investment when we make the investment environment more realistic than in prior experiments. Previously documented aggregation effects are not robust to changes in the risky asset's return distribution or the introduction of a multi-day delay between portfolio choice and return realizations.

Probabilistic Models For Earthquakes With Large Return Periods In Himalaya Region

Science.gov (United States)

Chaudhary, Chhavi; Sharma, Mukat Lal

2017-12-01

Determination of the frequency of large earthquakes is of paramount importance for seismic risk assessment as large events contribute to significant fraction of the total deformation and these long return period events with low probability of occurrence are not easily captured by classical distributions. Generally, with a small catalogue these larger events follow different distribution function from the smaller and intermediate events. It is thus of special importance to use statistical methods that analyse as closely as possible the range of its extreme values or the tail of the distributions in addition to the main distributions. The generalised Pareto distribution family is widely used for modelling the events which are crossing a specified threshold value. The Pareto, Truncated Pareto, and Tapered Pareto are the special cases of the generalised Pareto family. In this work, the probability of earthquake occurrence has been estimated using the Pareto, Truncated Pareto, and Tapered Pareto distributions. As a case study, the Himalayas whose orogeny lies in generation of large earthquakes and which is one of the most active zones of the world, has been considered. The whole Himalayan region has been divided into five seismic source zones according to seismotectonic and clustering of events. Estimated probabilities of occurrence of earthquakes have also been compared with the modified Gutenberg-Richter distribution and the characteristics recurrence distribution. The statistical analysis reveals that the Tapered Pareto distribution better describes seismicity for the seismic source zones in comparison to other distributions considered in the present study.

Landslide Probability Assessment by the Derived Distributions Technique

Science.gov (United States)

Muñoz, E.; Ochoa, A.; Martínez, H.

2012-12-01

Landslides are potentially disastrous events that bring along human and economic losses; especially in cities where an accelerated and unorganized growth leads to settlements on steep and potentially unstable areas. Among the main causes of landslides are geological, geomorphological, geotechnical, climatological, hydrological conditions and anthropic intervention. This paper studies landslides detonated by rain, commonly known as "soil-slip", which characterize by having a superficial failure surface (Typically between 1 and 1.5 m deep) parallel to the slope face and being triggered by intense and/or sustained periods of rain. This type of landslides is caused by changes on the pore pressure produced by a decrease in the suction when a humid front enters, as a consequence of the infiltration initiated by rain and ruled by the hydraulic characteristics of the soil. Failure occurs when this front reaches a critical depth and the shear strength of the soil in not enough to guarantee the stability of the mass. Critical rainfall thresholds in combination with a slope stability model are widely used for assessing landslide probability. In this paper we present a model for the estimation of the occurrence of landslides based on the derived distributions technique. Since the works of Eagleson in the 1970s the derived distributions technique has been widely used in hydrology to estimate the probability of occurrence of extreme flows. The model estimates the probability density function (pdf) of the Factor of Safety (FOS) from the statistical behavior of the rainfall process and some slope parameters. The stochastic character of the rainfall is transformed by means of a deterministic failure model into FOS pdf. Exceedance probability and return period estimation is then straightforward. The rainfall process is modeled as a Rectangular Pulses Poisson Process (RPPP) with independent exponential pdf for mean intensity and duration of the storms. The Philip infiltration model

Estimating animal movement contacts between holdings of different production types.

Science.gov (United States)

Lindström, Tom; Sisson, Scott A; Lewerin, Susanna Stenberg; Wennergren, Uno

2010-06-01

Animal movement poses a great risk for disease transmission between holdings. Heterogeneous contact patterns are known to influence the dynamics of disease transmission and should be included in modeling. Using pig movement data from Sweden as an example, we present a method for quantification of between holding contact probabilities based on different production types. The data contained seven production types: Sow pool center, Sow pool satellite, Farrow-to-finish, Nucleus herd, Piglet producer, Multiplying herd and Fattening herd. The method also estimates how much different production types will determine the contact pattern of holdings that have more than one type. The method is based on Bayesian analysis and uses data from central databases of animal movement. Holdings with different production types are estimated to vary in the frequency of contacts as well as in what type of holding they have contact with, and the direction of the contacts. Movements from Multiplying herds to Sow pool centers, Nucleus herds to other Nucleus herds, Sow pool centers to Sow pool satellites, Sow pool satellites to Sow pool centers and Nucleus herds to Multiplying herds were estimated to be most common relative to the abundance of the production types. We show with a simulation study that these contact patterns may also be expected to result in substantial differences in disease transmission via animal movements, depending on the index holding. Simulating transmission for a 1 year period showed that the median number of infected holdings was 1 (i.e. only the index holding infected) if the infection started at a Fattening herd and 2161 if the infection started on a Nucleus herd. We conclude that it is valuable to include production types in models of disease transmission and the method presented in this paper may be used for such models when appropriate data is available. We also argue that keeping records of production types is of great value since it may be helpful in risk

Allergic Contact Dermatitis

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Meltem Önder

2009-03-01

Full Text Available Allergic contact dermatitis is the delayed type hypersensitivity reaction to exogenous agents. Allergic contact dermatitis may clinically present acutely after allergen exposure and initial sensitization in a previously sensitized individual. Acute phase is characterized by erythematous, scaly plaques. In severe cases vesiculation and bullae in exposed areas are very characteristic. Repeated or continuous exposure of sensitized individual with allergen result in chronic dermatitis. Lichenification, erythematous plaques, hyperkeratosis and fissuring may develop in chronic patients. Allergic contact dermatitis is very common dermatologic problem in dermatology daily practice. A diagnosis of contact dermatitis requires the careful consideration of patient history, physical examination and patch testing. The knowledge of the clinical features of the skin reactions to various contactans is important to make a correct diagnosis of contact dermatitis. It can be seen in every age, in children textile product, accessories and touch products are common allergens, while in adults allergic contact dermatitis may be related with topical medicaments. The contact pattern of contact dermatitis depends on fashion and local traditions as well. The localization of allergic reaction should be evaluated and patients’ occupation and hobbies should be asked. The purpose of this review is to introduce to our collaques up dated allergic contact dermatitis literatures both in Turkey and in the World.

Critical behavior of the contact process on small-world networks

Science.gov (United States)

Ferreira, Ronan S.; Ferreira, Silvio C.

2013-11-01

We investigate the role of clustering on the critical behavior of the contact process (CP) on small-world networks using the Watts-Strogatz (WS) network model with an edge rewiring probability p. The critical point is well predicted by a homogeneous cluster-approximation for the limit of vanishing clustering ( p → 1). The critical exponents and dimensionless moment ratios of the CP are in agreement with those predicted by the mean-field theory for any p > 0. This independence on the network clustering shows that the small-world property is a sufficient condition for the mean-field theory to correctly predict the universality of the model. Moreover, we compare the CP dynamics on WS networks with rewiring probability p = 1 and random regular networks and show that the weak heterogeneity of the WS network slightly changes the critical point but does not alter other critical quantities of the model.

Friendly-Sharing: Improving the Performance of City Sensoring through Contact-Based Messaging Applications

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Jorge Herrera-Tapia

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Regular citizens equipped with smart devices are being increasingly used as “sensors” by Smart Cities applications. Using contacts among users, data in the form of messages is obtained and shared. Contact-based messaging applications are based on establishing a short-range communication directly between mobile devices, and on storing the messages in these devices for subsequent delivery to cloud-based services. An effective way to increase the number of messages that can be shared is to increase the contact duration. We thus introduce the Friendly-Sharing diffusion approach, where, during a contact, the users are aware of the time needed to interchange the messages stored in their buffers, and they can thus decide to wait more time in order to increase the message sharing probability. The performance of this approach is anyway closely related to the size of the buffer in the device. We therefore compare various policies either for the message selection at forwarding times and for message dropping when the buffer is full. We evaluate our proposal with a modified version of the Opportunistic Networking Environment (ONE simulator and using real human mobility traces.

Friendly-Sharing: Improving the Performance of City Sensoring through Contact-Based Messaging Applications.

Science.gov (United States)

Herrera-Tapia, Jorge; Hernández-Orallo, Enrique; Tomás, Andrés; Manzoni, Pietro; Tavares Calafate, Carlos; Cano, Juan-Carlos

2016-09-18

Regular citizens equipped with smart devices are being increasingly used as "sensors" by Smart Cities applications. Using contacts among users, data in the form of messages is obtained and shared. Contact-based messaging applications are based on establishing a short-range communication directly between mobile devices, and on storing the messages in these devices for subsequent delivery to cloud-based services. An effective way to increase the number of messages that can be shared is to increase the contact duration. We thus introduce the Friendly-Sharing diffusion approach, where, during a contact, the users are aware of the time needed to interchange the messages stored in their buffers, and they can thus decide to wait more time in order to increase the message sharing probability. The performance of this approach is anyway closely related to the size of the buffer in the device. We therefore compare various policies either for the message selection at forwarding times and for message dropping when the buffer is full. We evaluate our proposal with a modified version of the Opportunistic Networking Environment (ONE) simulator and using real human mobility traces.

Clinical measurement of the height of the interproximal contact area in maxillary anterior teeth.

Science.gov (United States)

Sghaireen, Mohd G; Al-Zarea, Bader K; Al-Shorman, Hisham M; Al-Omiri, Mahmoud K

2013-11-01

To clinically quantify the apicoincisal height of interproximal areas directly in patients' mouths. Thirty participants (11 females and 9 males, mean age=26±1.5 years) were recruited into this study. Measurement of interproximal contact areas was carried out directly in patients' mouths using digital caliper (TERENSA, USA) with measuring accuracy of 0.01 mm. The interproximal contact areas that were measured are: central incisor to central incisor, central incisor to lateral incisor, lateral incisor to canine, and canine to first premolar on both sides of the jaw. Statistical significance was based on probability values less than 0.05 (pcontact point was the one present between central incisors and it ranged from 2.9 to 6.5 mm. On the other hand, the contact point between canine and first premolar was the smallest on both sides of the arch and ranged from 0.6 to 2.5 mm. The dimensions of the contact points declined as we move from anterior area backwards. Statistical analysis using t-test showed that there were significant differences between the measurements of interproximal points of each tooth (Pcontact point decreased as we moved from anterior to posterior teeth. The contact area between the central incisors was largest and the one between canine and premolar was the smallest. This study is the first to report direct intra-oral clinical measurement of contact points. Clinical evaluation of contact point dimensions using digital caliber is a viable, quick and accurate method to use.

Does Aggregated Returns Disclosure Increase Portfolio Risk Taking?

Science.gov (United States)

Beshears, John; Choi, James J.; Laibson, David; Madrian, Brigitte C.

2016-01-01

Many experiments have found that participants take more investment risk if they see returns less frequently, see portfolio-level returns (rather than each individual asset’s returns), or see long-horizon (rather than one-year) historical return distributions. In contrast, we find that such information aggregation treatments do not affect total equity investment when we make the investment environment more realistic than in prior experiments. Previously documented aggregation effects are not robust to changes in the risky asset’s return distribution or the introduction of a multi-day delay between portfolio choice and return realizations. PMID:28553012

Modelling temporal networks of human face-to-face contacts with public activity and individual reachability

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Yi-Qing; Cui, Jing; Zhang, Shu-Min; Zhang, Qi; Li, Xiang

2016-02-01

Modelling temporal networks of human face-to-face contacts is vital both for understanding the spread of airborne pathogens and word-of-mouth spreading of information. Although many efforts have been devoted to model these temporal networks, there are still two important social features, public activity and individual reachability, have been ignored in these models. Here we present a simple model that captures these two features and other typical properties of empirical face-to-face contact networks. The model describes agents which are characterized by an attractiveness to slow down the motion of nearby people, have event-triggered active probability and perform an activity-dependent biased random walk in a square box with periodic boundary. The model quantitatively reproduces two empirical temporal networks of human face-to-face contacts which are testified by their network properties and the epidemic spread dynamics on them.

Return to sport and knee functional scores after anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction: 2 to 10 years' follow-up

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Sukrom Cheecharern

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Background: Anterior cruciate ligament (ACL reconstruction is one of the most common knee ligament reconstruction sustained by sports players. Previous studies have revealed different rates of returning to play sports depending on study sites, subjects, and time to follow-up; however, this subject has not been adequately investigated in Thailand. Objectives: This study aimed to assess the percentage of ACL reconstruction patients who successfully returned to sport activities. Factors associated with being able to return to sport were also determined. Materials and methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted to assess the rates of return to sport of patients who underwent ACL reconstruction between 2005 and 2015. All potential patients were initially contacted via letter or mobile phone and asked to report their long-term follow-up outcomes. Collected data from the interview, including return to sport status, performance following ACL, and reasons for not returning to play (if applicable were then combined with the initial surgical findings and enrollment/follow-up cohort data for analysis. This study was reviewed and approved by the ethics committee of Rajavithi Hospital. Results: A total of 110 participants were recruited, with a mean age of 35.05 ± 9.16 years. Most of the patients were male, single, with bachelor degree education, engaged in “other” occupations, had income up to 10,000 baht/month, were in the social security scheme (54.5%, and had no underlying diseases (85.5%. The mean ± SD of BMI was 25.58 ± 4.30 kg/m2. When classified by whether or not they returned to sports, it was found that sex, education, income and underlying disease of those who returned to sport were significantly different from those of subjects who did not (p < 0.05. At follow-up, 36.4% had returned to sport. The main reasons stated for not returning to sport following ACL were fear of injury, concern about possible long-term effects

Probability in physics

CERN Document Server

Hemmo, Meir

2012-01-01

What is the role and meaning of probability in physical theory, in particular in two of the most successful theories of our age, quantum physics and statistical mechanics? Laws once conceived as universal and deterministic, such as Newton‘s laws of motion, or the second law of thermodynamics, are replaced in these theories by inherently probabilistic laws. This collection of essays by some of the world‘s foremost experts presents an in-depth analysis of the meaning of probability in contemporary physics. Among the questions addressed are: How are probabilities defined? Are they objective or subjective? What is their  explanatory value? What are the differences between quantum and classical probabilities? The result is an informative and thought-provoking book for the scientifically inquisitive. 

Recommendations for the Return of Research Results to Study Participants and Guardians: A Report From the Children's Oncology Group

Science.gov (United States)

Fernandez, Conrad V.; Ruccione, Kathleen; Wells, Robert J.; Long, Jay B.; Pelletier, Wendy; Hooke, Mary C.; Pentz, Rebecca D.; Noll, Robert B.; Baker, Justin N.; O'Leary, Maura; Reaman, Gregory; Adamson, Peter C.; Joffe, Steven

2012-01-01

Purpose The Children's Oncology Group (COG) strongly supports the widely recognized principle that research participants should be offered a summary of study results. The mechanism by which to do so in a cooperative research group setting has not been previously described. Methods On the basis of a review of the available empirical and theoretic literature and on iterative, multidisciplinary discussion, a COG Return of Results Task Force (RRTF) offered detailed recommendations for the return of results to research study participants. Results The RRTF established guidelines for the notification of research participants and/or their parents/guardians about the availability of research results, a mechanism for and timing of sharing results via registration on the COG public Web site, the scope of the research to be shared, the target audience, and a process for creating and vetting lay summaries of study results. The RRTF recognized the challenges in adequately conveying complex scientific results to audiences with varying levels of health literacy and recommended that particularly sensitive or complex results be returned using direct personal contact. The RRTF also recommended evaluation of the cost, effectiveness, and impact of sharing results. Conclusion These recommendations provide a framework for the offering and returning of results to participants. They can be used by individual investigators, multi-investigator research collaboratives, and large cooperative groups. PMID:23109703

Experimental investigation on the electrical contact behavior of rolling contact connector

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chen, Junxing; Yang, Fei, E-mail: yfei2007@mail.xjtu.edu.cn; Luo, Kaiyu; Zhu, Mingliang; Wu, Yi; Rong, Mingzhe [State Key Laboratory of Electrical Insulation and Power Equipment, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an 710049 (China)

2015-12-15

Rolling contact connector (RCC) is a new technology utilized in high performance electric power transfer systems with one or more rotating interfaces, such as radars, satellites, wind generators, and medical computed tomography machines. Rolling contact components are used in the RCC instead of traditional sliding contacts to transfer electrical power and/or signal. Since the requirement of the power transmission is increasing in these years, the rolling electrical contact characteristics become more and more important for the long-life design of RCC. In this paper, a typical form of RCC is presented. A series of experimental work are carried out to investigate the rolling electrical contact characteristics during its lifetime. The influence of a variety of factors on the electrical contact degradation behavior of RCC is analyzed under both vacuum and air environment. Based on the surface morphology and elemental composition changes in the contact zone, which are assessed by field emission scanning electron microscope and confocal laser scanning microscope, the mechanism of rolling electrical contact degradation is discussed.

Are there Diminishing Returns to R&D?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Madsen, Jakob B.

Semi-endogenous models and, to some extent, also Schumpeterian models are based on the assumption of diminishing returns to R&D. This paper shows that the null hypothesis of constant returns to R&D cannot be rejected for the OECD countries......Semi-endogenous models and, to some extent, also Schumpeterian models are based on the assumption of diminishing returns to R&D. This paper shows that the null hypothesis of constant returns to R&D cannot be rejected for the OECD countries...

Nondeterministic computational fluid dynamics modeling of Escherichia coli inactivation by peracetic acid in municipal wastewater contact tanks.

Science.gov (United States)

Santoro, Domenico; Crapulli, Ferdinando; Raisee, Mehrdad; Raspa, Giuseppe; Haas, Charles N

2015-06-16

Wastewater disinfection processes are typically designed according to heuristics derived from batch experiments in which the interaction among wastewater quality, reactor hydraulics, and inactivation kinetics is often neglected. In this paper, a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) study was conducted in a nondeterministic (ND) modeling framework to predict the Escherichia coli inactivation by peracetic acid (PAA) in municipal contact tanks fed by secondary settled wastewater effluent. The extent and variability associated with the observed inactivation kinetics were both satisfactorily predicted by the stochastic inactivation model at a 95% confidence level. Moreover, it was found that (a) the process variability induced by reactor hydraulics is negligible when compared to the one caused by inactivation kinetics, (b) the PAA dose required for meeting regulations is dictated equally by the fixed limit of the microbial concentration as well as its probability of occurrence, and (c) neglecting the probability of occurrence during process sizing could lead to an underestimation of the PAA dose required by as much as 100%. Finally, the ND-CFD model was used to generate sizing information in the form of probabilistic disinfection curves relating E. coli inactivation and probability of occurrence with the average PAA dose and PAA residual concentration at the outlet of the contact tank.

Radiation protection of people in contact with patient treated with metabolic radiotherapy using iodine-131 in nuclear medicine - case of the Laboratoire des Radio-Isotopes(LRI) Anpandrianomby

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

RAMAROJAONA, H.

2008-01-01

In the aim to propose recommendations for radiation protection of those in contact with patients, simulations were performed for restricting the radiation hazards to the family and the members of the public coming into contact with a patient treated with 131 Iode for a thyroid pathology. The simulated dose constraint was 0,3 mSv for the family. According to the regulation in radiation protection in Madagascar, annual dose limit for the public is 1mSv and 20 mSv for the workers. Several contact patterns were tested: contact to the workers, daily visits, public transports, return to work, sleeping with partner and close contact with children. The recommendations duration was evaluated both as a function of the administered activity (out-patient) or the residual activity (discharged inpatient) by measuring the dose rate at 1 m distance from the patient. [fr

CONTACT RESISTANCE MODELING

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S. V. LOSKUTOV

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Purpose. To determine the contribution of the real contact spots distribution in the total conductivity of the conductors contact. Methodology. The electrical contact resistance research was carried out on models. The experimental part of this work was done on paper with a graphite layer with membranes (the first type and conductive liquids with discrete partitions (the second type. Findings. It is shown that the contact electrical resistance is mainly determined by the real area of metal contact. The experimental dependence of the electrical resistance of the second type model on the distance between the electrodes and the potential distribution along the sample surface for the first type model were obtained. The theoretical model based on the principle of electric field superposition was considered. The dependences obtained experimentally and calculated by using the theoretical model are in good agreement. Originality. The regularity of the electrical contact resistance formation on a large number of membranes was researched for the first time. A new model of discrete electrical contact based on the liquid as the conducting environment with nuclear membrane partitions was developed. The conclusions of the additivity of contact and bulk electrical resistance were done. Practical value. Based on these researches, a new experimental method of kinetic macroidentation that as a parameter of the metal surface layer deformation uses the real contact area was developed. This method allows to determine the value of average contact stresses, yield point, change of the stress on the depth of deformation depending on the surface treatment.

Assessment of the accuracy and reliability of the Topcon CT80 non-contact tonometer.

Science.gov (United States)

Ogbuehi, Kelechi C

2006-09-01

The reliability of non-contact tonometers has been reported extensively in the literature. This study was designed to assess reliability of the new Topcon CT80 non-contact tonometer in normotensive subjects, using the Goldmann tonometer as the standard. The accuracy of the Topcon CT 80 non-contact tonometer was assessed by comparing its IOP assessments with those of the Goldmann applanation tonometer, on 60 right eyes of young healthy subjects with normal intraocular pressures. Each subject's intraocular pressure was assessed with each technique on two separate occasions, one week apart. The reliability of each technique was determined by the assessment of its inter-session repeatability using the Bland-Altman method. The 95 per cent limits of agreement for the two methods were also determined. No statistically significant difference was found between the average intraocular pressures measured with the two techniques (p > 0.05). The inter-session repeatability indices for the two techniques did not differ significantly (p > 0.05). The mean difference in intraocular measurements between the two techniques was 0.2 +/- 1.5 mmHg (mean +/- SD) and the 95 per cent limits of agreement were -3.14 and +2.74 mmHg, with the non-contact tonometer returning higher readings than the Goldmann tonometer. In this sample of normotensive subjects, the Topcon CT80 non-contact tonometer proved to be accurate and as reliable as the Goldmann tonometer in the assessment of intraocular pressure. Thus, it can be used as an objective clinical method for the assessment of normal intraocular pressure.

Sexual Contact in Childhood, Revictimization, and Lifetime Sexual and Psychological Outcomes.

Science.gov (United States)

Das, Aniruddha; Otis, Nicholas

2016-07-01

Using data from the 2010 to 2011 wave of the National Social Life, Health, and Aging Project-a nationally representative probability sample of older U.S. adults-this study queried distinctive linkages of mild and of severe childhood sexual contact with lifetime sexual and psychological outcomes among women and men aged 60-99 years (N = 3283). In addition, we examined stratification of these associations by sexual revictimization (forced sex and/or harassment). Among women, sequelae of childhood contact seemed consistently negative for the mild rather than severe variant-but only in the co-presence of revictimization-a pattern that may have remained obscured in previous analysis of event effects. Men's results suggested lifelong eroticizing but not psychological effects of this early experience-with the co-presence of revictimization potentially enhancing rather than lowering their mental health. Overall, findings appeared to reflect gendered patterns of risk-with mild childhood contact potentially channeling women but not men into revictimization and finally to elevated sexuality and poor mental health in late life. Early sexual experiences should thus be conceptualized not as singular events, but as part of a lifelong career with regularities and rhythms that may influence their pathogenic potential.

Friction and universal contact area law for randomly rough viscoelastic contacts.

Science.gov (United States)

Scaraggi, M; Persson, B N J

2015-03-18

We present accurate numerical results for the friction force and the contact area for a viscoelastic solid (rubber) in sliding contact with hard, randomly rough substrates. The rough surfaces are self-affine fractal with roughness over several decades in length scales. We calculate the contribution to the friction from the pulsating deformations induced by the substrate asperities. We also calculate how the area of real contact, A(v, p), depends on the sliding speed v and on the nominal contact pressure p, and we show how the contact area for any sliding speed can be obtained from a universal master curve A(p). The numerical results are found to be in good agreement with the predictions of an analytical contact mechanics theory.

Current knowledge on biomarkers for contact sensitization and allergic contact dermatitis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Koppes, Sjors A.; Engebretsen, Kristiane A.; Agner, Tove

2017-01-01

Contact sensitization is common and affects up to 20% of the general population. The clinical manifestation of contact sensitization is allergic contact dermatitis. This is a clinical expression that is sometimes difficult to distinguish from other types of dermatitis, for example irritant...... and atopic dermatitis. Several studies have examined the pathogenesis and severity of allergic contact dermatitis by measuring the absence or presence of various biomarkers. In this review, we provide a non-systematic overview of biomarkers that have been studied in allergic contact dermatitis. These include...... genetic variations and mutations, inflammatory mediators, alarmins, proteases, immunoproteomics, lipids, natural moisturizing factors, tight junctions, and antimicrobial peptides. We conclude that, despite the enormous amount of data, convincing specific biomarkers for allergic contact dermatitis are yet...

Fragrance contact allergy: a clinical review.

Science.gov (United States)

Johansen, Jeanne D

2003-01-01

Most people in modern society are exposed daily to fragrance ingredients from one or more sources. Fragrance ingredients are also one of the most frequent causes of contact allergic reactions. The diagnosis is made by patch testing with a mixture of fragrance ingredients, the fragrance mix. This gives a positive patch-test reaction in about 10% of tested patients with eczema, and the most recent estimates show that 1.7-4.1% of the general population are sensitized to ingredients of the fragrance mix. Fragrance allergy occurs predominantly in women with facial or hand eczema. These women typically have a history of rash to a fine fragrance or scented deodorants. Chemical analysis has revealed that well known allergens from the fragrance mix are present in 15-100% of cosmetic products, including deodorants and fine fragrances, and most often in combinations of three to four allergens in the same products. This means that it is difficult to avoid exposure, as products labelled as 'fragrance free' have also been shown to contain fragrance ingredients, either because of the use of fragrance ingredients as preservatives or masking perfumes, or the use of botanicals. About 2500 different fragrance ingredients are currently used in the composition of perfumes and at least 100 of these are known contact allergens. Therefore, it is advisable to supplement standard patch testing with the patient's own stay-on cosmetic products, as well as the fragrance chemical hydroxyisohexyl-3-cyclohexane carboxaldehyde, which on its own gives responses in 1-3% of tested patients. The focus in recent years on the ingredients of the fragrance mix will probably result in the fragrance industry changing the composition of perfumes, and thus make the current diagnostic test less useful. New diagnostic tests are under development to identify contact allergy to new allergens, reflecting the continuous developments and trends in exposure.

Coordinate transformation in the model of long Josephson contacts: geometrically equivalent contacts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Semerdzhieva, E.G.; Boyadzhiev, T.L.; ); Shukrinov, Yu.M.; Physical Technical Institute Dushanbe, 734063

2005-01-01

The transition from model of long Josephson variable-width contact to the contact model with coordinate-dependent Josephson current amplitude is realized by transforming the coordinates. This sets up a correspondence between Josephson contacts of variable width and quasi-one-dimensional contacts of variable thickness barrier layer. It is shown, that for contacts of exponentially varying width the barrier layer of the corresponding quasi-one-dimensional contact contains the distributed resistive inhomogeneity which is an attractor to magnetic flux vortices. With numerical experiments, a 'critical current-magnetic field' dependence for a resistive microinhomogeneity Josephson contact was plotted, and its comparison with the critical curve for a contact of exponentially varying width was made. Thus, this demonstrates that the distributed inhomogeneity may be replaced by a local one at the JC end what technologically, may offer definite advantages

Simulation Results: Optimization of Contact Ratio for Interdigitated Back-Contact Solar Cells

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vinay Budhraja

2017-01-01

Full Text Available In the fabrication of interdigitated back contact (IBC solar cells, it is very important to choose the right size of contact to achieve the maximum efficiency. Line contacts and point contacts are the two possibilities, which are being chosen for IBC structure. It is expected that the point contacts would give better results because of the reduced recombination rate. In this work, we are simulating the effect of contact size on the performance of IBC solar cells. Simulations were done in three dimension using Quokka, which numerically solves the charge carrier transport. Our simulation results show that around 10% of contact ratio is able to achieve optimum cell efficiency.

Regime switches in the risk-return trade-off

OpenAIRE

Marcellino, Massimiliano; Ghysels, Eric; Guerin, Pierre

2014-01-01

This paper deals with the estimation of the risk-return trade-off. We use a MIDAS model for the conditional variance and allow for possible switches in the risk-return relation through a Markov-switching specification. We find strong evidence for regime changes in the risk-return relation. This finding is robust to a large range of specifications. In the first regime characterized by low ex-post returns and high volatility, the risk-return relation is reversed, whereas the intuitive positive ...

ANALYSING TURKISH INDIVIDUAL PENSION SYSTEM FEES AND RETURNS

OpenAIRE

Peker, Ibrahim

2018-01-01

This study aims at categorizing, computing and analyzing fees and costs in Turkish Individual Pension System. To this end, net real returns after all costs were computed and these returns were compared with the disclosed fees and returns. Generally in practice, only fund management fees are taken into consideration for calculating net returns and with this method net annual average (geometric) return of the system is calculated as 2.01% for the 2008-2014 period. However, the results of this s...

Phobos Sample Return: Next Approach

Science.gov (United States)

Zelenyi, Lev; Martynov, Maxim; Zakharov, Alexander; Korablev, Oleg; Ivanov, Alexey; Karabadzak, George

The Martian moons still remain a mystery after numerous studies by Mars orbiting spacecraft. Their study cover three major topics related to (1) Solar system in general (formation and evolution, origin of planetary satellites, origin and evolution of life); (2) small bodies (captured asteroid, or remnants of Mars formation, or reaccreted Mars ejecta); (3) Mars (formation and evolution of Mars; Mars ejecta at the satellites). As reviewed by Galimov [2010] most of the above questions require the sample return from the Martian moon, while some (e.g. the characterization of the organic matter) could be also answered by in situ experiments. There is the possibility to obtain the sample of Mars material by sampling Phobos: following to Chappaz et al. [2012] a 200-g sample could contain 10-7 g of Mars surface material launched during the past 1 mln years, or 5*10-5 g of Mars material launched during the past 10 mln years, or 5*1010 individual particles from Mars, quantities suitable for accurate laboratory analyses. The studies of Phobos have been of high priority in the Russian program on planetary research for many years. Phobos-88 mission consisted of two spacecraft (Phobos-1, Phobos-2) and aimed the approach to Phobos at 50 m and remote studies, and also the release of small landers (long-living stations DAS). This mission implemented the program incompletely. It was returned information about the Martian environment and atmosphere. The next profect Phobos Sample Return (Phobos-Grunt) initially planned in early 2000 has been delayed several times owing to budget difficulties; the spacecraft failed to leave NEO in 2011. The recovery of the science goals of this mission and the delivery of the samples of Phobos to Earth remain of highest priority for Russian scientific community. The next Phobos SR mission named Boomerang was postponed following the ExoMars cooperation, but is considered the next in the line of planetary exploration, suitable for launch around 2022. A

Philosophical theories of probability

CERN Document Server

Gillies, Donald

2000-01-01

The Twentieth Century has seen a dramatic rise in the use of probability and statistics in almost all fields of research. This has stimulated many new philosophical ideas on probability. Philosophical Theories of Probability is the first book to present a clear, comprehensive and systematic account of these various theories and to explain how they relate to one another. Gillies also offers a distinctive version of the propensity theory of probability, and the intersubjective interpretation, which develops the subjective theory.

Do expectancies of return to work and Job satisfaction predict actual return to work in workers with long lasting LBP?

Science.gov (United States)

Opsahl, Jon; Eriksen, Hege R; Tveito, Torill H

2016-11-17

Musculoskeletal disorders including low back pain have major individual and socioeconomic consequences as it often leads to disability and long-term sick leave and exclusion from working life. Predictors of disability and return to work often differ, and the dominant knowledge is on predictors for prolonged sick leave and disability. Therefore it is also important to identify key predictors for return to work. The aim of the study was to assess if overall job satisfaction and expectancies of return to work predicts actual return to work after 12 months, among employees with long lasting low back pain, and to assess if there were gender differences in the predictors. Data from the Cognitive interventions and nutritional supplements trial (CINS Trial) was used. Predictors for return to work were examined in 574 employees that had been on sick leave 2-10 months for low back pain, before entering the trial. Data were analysed with multiple logistic regression models stratified by gender, and adjusted for potential confounders. Regardless of gender high expectancies were a strong and significant predictor of return to work at 12 months, while high levels of job satisfaction were not a significant predictor. There were no differences in the levels of expectancies or overall job satisfaction between men and women. However, men had in general higher odds of returning to work compared with women. Among individuals with long lasting low back pain high expectancies of returning to work were strongly associated with successful return to work. We do not know what factors influence individual expectancies of return to work. Screening expectancies and giving individuals with low expectancies interventions with a goal to change expectancies of return to work, such as CBT or self-management interventions, may contribute to increase actual return to work. http://www.clinicaltrials.gov/ , with registration number NCT00463970 . The trial was registered at the 18th of April 2007.

KINERJA KEUANGAN KONVENSIONAL, ECONOMIC VALUE ADDED, DAN RETURN SAHAM

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bambang Sudiyatno

2011-09-01

Full Text Available Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menguji pengaruh kinerja keuangan konvensional; Return on Asset (ROA, Return on Equity (ROE, Residual Income (RI, dan kinerja keuangan yang lebih modern; Economic Value Added (EVA terhadap return saham pada perusahaan-perusahaan dalam industry makanan dan minuman yang terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia. Pengambilan sampel dalam penelitian ini menggunakan metode sensus, karena semua perusahaan dalam industry makanan dan minuman digunakan sebagai sampel. Namun dalam proses samplingnya mengunakan metode purposive sampling, yaitu menggunakan sampel dengan criteria-kriteria tertentu. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa Return on Asset (ROA dan Residual Income (RI berpengaruh positif dan secara statistik signifikan terhadap return saham pada level signifikansi 1%. Sedangkan Return on Equity (ROE berpengaruh negative dan secara statistik signifikan terhadap return saham pada level signifikansi 10%, dan Economic Value Added (ERA berpengaruh positif tetapi tidak signifikan terhadap return saham.This study aims to test the effect of conventional financial performance i.e. Return on Asset (ROA, Return on Equity (ROE, Residual Income (RI, and the more modern financial performance which is Economic Value Added (EVA toward stock returns on companies in the food and beverage industry listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange. Sampling technique in this study uses the census method, all companies in the food and beverage industry are used as a sample. The process of sampling using purposive sampling method. The result shows that Return On Asset (ROA and Residual Income (RI are positive and statistic significant impact on the stock returns at significance level 1%. While the Return on Equity (ROE is negative and statistic significant impact on the stock returns at significance level 10%, Economic Value Added (EVA is positive and statistic not significant impact on the stock returns.

Intraoral versus extraoral measurement of the height of the interproximal contact area in maxillary anterior teeth.

Science.gov (United States)

Sghaireen, Mohd G; Albhiran, Heyam Mobark; Alzoubi, Ibrahim A; Lynch, Edward; Al-Omiri, Mahmoud K

2015-01-01

This study aimed to clinically quantify the apicoincisal height of the upper interproximal areas directly in patients' mouths compared to measurements on stone models. One hundred and fifty participants (75 females and 75 males, age range 20-45 years) were recruited for this study. A digital caliper was used to measure the anterior maxillary interproximal contact areas directly in patients' mouths and on stone models. The digital caliper accuracy was up to 0.01. The Statistical Package for Social Sciences software (SPSS, version 19.0, Chicago, Ill., USA) was used for statistical analysis. Statistical significance was based on probability values contacts as well as the measurement on stone models showed that the dimensions of interproximal contacts on both sides of each tooth were significantly different (p contact point was larger than that of the distal contact point of each tooth. The largest contact point was the one between the central incisors (direct intraoral measurement = 2.9-6.49 mm; model measurement = 3.31-6.91 mm). On the other hand, the contact point between the canine and first premolar was the smallest on both sides of the arch (0.63-2.52 mm intraorally, 0.98-2.88 mm on models). The intraoral measurement of contact points was more accurate than model measurements, and the differences were statistically significant (p contact point dimensions using a digital caliper was more precise than measuring contact points on stone models; hence, it is a viable, quick and adequate method to be used routinely. © 2015 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Return Migration among Elderly, Chronically Ill Bosnian Refugees

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Handlos, Line Neerup; Olwig, Karen Fog; Bygbjerg, Ib Christian

2015-01-01

Elderly migrants constitute a considerable share of global return migration; nevertheless, literature on the health aspects of the return migration among these migrants is still scarce. This study explores the significance of return migration among elderly, chronically ill Bosnian refugees from D...... of illness, health did matter. Viewed as physical, social and mental well-being in line with WHO's definition of health, health was indeed one of the most important factors when the decision to return was made....... that physical health, in the sense of the absence of illness and easy access to necessary health-care services and medicines, was not highly prioritized when the decision was made whether or not to return. However, if health is regarded more broadly as involving more than mere physical health and the absence......Elderly migrants constitute a considerable share of global return migration; nevertheless, literature on the health aspects of the return migration among these migrants is still scarce. This study explores the significance of return migration among elderly, chronically ill Bosnian refugees from...

First contact diagnosis and management of contact lens-related complications.

Science.gov (United States)

Fagan, Xavier J; Jhanji, Vishal; Constantinou, Marios; Amirul Islam, F M; Taylor, Hugh R; Vajpayee, Rasik B

2012-08-01

To describe the spectrum of contact lens-related problems in cases presenting to a tertiary referral eye hospital. A retrospective case record analysis of 111 eyes of 97 consecutive patients was undertaken over a period of five months at the Royal Victorian Eye and Ear Hospital, Melbourne, Australia. Contact lens-related complications (CLRC) were classified into microbial keratitis, sterile corneal infiltrates, corneal epitheliopathy and contact lens-related red eye (CLARE). Main parameters examined were nature of the first contact, clinical diagnosis, and management pattern. Forty-two percent of the initial presentations were to health care practitioners (HCPs) other than ophthalmologists. Mean duration from the onset of symptoms to presentation was 6.3 ± 10.9 days. Forty-nine percent (n = 54) of patients had an associated risk factor, most commonly overnight use of contact lenses (n = 14, 13 %). Most common diagnosis at presentation was corneal epitheliopathy (68 %) followed by sterile infiltrates (10 %), CLARE (8 %) and microbial keratitis (6 %). No significant differences were found in the pattern of treatment modalities administered by ophthalmologists and other HCPs. HCPs other than ophthalmologists are the first contact for contact lens-related problems in a significant proportion of patients. These HCPs manage the majority of CLRC by direct treatment or immediate referral.

Developing an Empirical Model for Estimating the Probability of Electrical Short Circuits from Tin Whiskers. Part 2

Science.gov (United States)

Courey, Karim J.; Asfour, Shihab S.; Onar, Arzu; Bayliss, Jon A.; Ludwig, Larry L.; Wright, Maria C.

2009-01-01

To comply with lead-free legislation, many manufacturers have converted from tin-lead to pure tin finishes of electronic components. However, pure tin finishes have a greater propensity to grow tin whiskers than tin-lead finishes. Since tin whiskers present an electrical short circuit hazard in electronic components, simulations have been developed to quantify the risk of said short circuits occurring. Existing risk simulations make the assumption that when a free tin whisker has bridged two adjacent exposed electrical conductors, the result is an electrical short circuit. This conservative assumption is made because shorting is a random event that had an unknown probability associated with it. Note however that due to contact resistance electrical shorts may not occur at lower voltage levels. In our first article we developed an empirical probability model for tin whisker shorting. In this paper, we develop a more comprehensive empirical model using a refined experiment with a larger sample size, in which we studied the effect of varying voltage on the breakdown of the contact resistance which leads to a short circuit. From the resulting data we estimated the probability distribution of an electrical short, as a function of voltage. In addition, the unexpected polycrystalline structure seen in the focused ion beam (FIB) cross section in the first experiment was confirmed in this experiment using transmission electron microscopy (TEM). The FIB was also used to cross section two card guides to facilitate the measurement of the grain size of each card guide's tin plating to determine its finish.

Corporate Governance and Equity Returns

OpenAIRE

Uchida, Shigeru

2012-01-01

This paper analyses the relationship between corporate governance and equity returns from the small investors view point. A primary survey has been conducted to gather the data required to examine the link. Preliminary result of the study shows that the four elements of governance: board structure, transparency, fairness and responsibility are positively related with equity returns.

Effectiveness of Securities with Fuzzy Probabilistic Return

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Krzysztof Piasecki

2011-01-01

Full Text Available The generalized fuzzy present value of a security is defined here as fuzzy valued utility of cash flow. The generalized fuzzy present value cannot depend on the value of future cash flow. There exists such a generalized fuzzy present value which is not a fuzzy present value in the sense given by some authors. If the present value is a fuzzy number and the future value is a random one, then the return rate is given as a probabilistic fuzzy subset on a real line. This kind of return rate is called a fuzzy probabilistic return. The main goal of this paper is to derive the family of effective securities with fuzzy probabilistic return. Achieving this goal requires the study of the basic parameters characterizing fuzzy probabilistic return. Therefore, fuzzy expected value and variance are determined for this case of return. These results are a starting point for constructing a three-dimensional image. The set of effective securities is introduced as the Pareto optimal set determined by the maximization of the expected return rate and minimization of the variance. Finally, the set of effective securities is distinguished as a fuzzy set. These results are obtained without the assumption that the distribution of future values is Gaussian. (original abstract

22 CFR 42.22 - Returning resident aliens.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... 22 Foreign Relations 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Returning resident aliens. 42.22 Section 42.22... Returning resident aliens. (a) Requirements for returning resident status. An alien shall be classifiable as... presented that: (1) The alien had the status of an alien lawfully admitted for permanent residence at the...

Probability for statisticians

CERN Document Server

Shorack, Galen R

2017-01-01

This 2nd edition textbook offers a rigorous introduction to measure theoretic probability with particular attention to topics of interest to mathematical statisticians—a textbook for courses in probability for students in mathematical statistics. It is recommended to anyone interested in the probability underlying modern statistics, providing a solid grounding in the probabilistic tools and techniques necessary to do theoretical research in statistics. For the teaching of probability theory to post graduate statistics students, this is one of the most attractive books available. Of particular interest is a presentation of the major central limit theorems via Stein's method either prior to or alternative to a characteristic function presentation. Additionally, there is considerable emphasis placed on the quantile function as well as the distribution function. The bootstrap and trimming are both presented. Martingale coverage includes coverage of censored data martingales. The text includes measure theoretic...

Volatility return intervals analysis of the Japanese market

Science.gov (United States)

Jung, W.-S.; Wang, F. Z.; Havlin, S.; Kaizoji, T.; Moon, H.-T.; Stanley, H. E.

2008-03-01

We investigate scaling and memory effects in return intervals between price volatilities above a certain threshold q for the Japanese stock market using daily and intraday data sets. We find that the distribution of return intervals can be approximated by a scaling function that depends only on the ratio between the return interval τ and its mean . We also find memory effects such that a large (or small) return interval follows a large (or small) interval by investigating the conditional distribution and mean return interval. The results are similar to previous studies of other markets and indicate that similar statistical features appear in different financial markets. We also compare our results between the period before and after the big crash at the end of 1989. We find that scaling and memory effects of the return intervals show similar features although the statistical properties of the returns are different.

Return currents in solar flares - Collisionless effects

Science.gov (United States)

Rowland, H. L.; Vlahos, L.

1985-01-01

If the primary, precipitating electrons in a solar flare are unstable to beam plasma interactions, it is shown that strong Langmuir turbulence can seriously modify the way in which a return current is carried by the background plasma. In particular, the return (or reverse) current will not be carried by the bulk of the electrons, but by a small number of high velocity electrons. For beam/plasma densities greater than 0.01, this can reduce the effects of collisions on the return current. For higher density beams where the return current could be unstable to current driven instabilities, the effects of strong turbulence anomalous resistivity is shown to prevent the appearance of such instabilities. Again in this regime, how the return current is carried is determined by the beam generated strong turbulence.

Value at Risk and Hedge Fund Return - Does High Risk Bring High Return?

OpenAIRE

Jing, Tao; Zhao, Hongxiang

2010-01-01

This paper mainly focuses on the correlation between live hedge fund return and their value at risk (VaR), and is based on the historical data from May 2000 to April 2010. The authors adopt portfolio level analyses and fund level cross-sectional regression, and find that there is significant positive correlation, both statistically and economically, between the hedge fund return and VaRs (parametric, non-parametric and GARCH). Further research is conducted by sub-dividing the overall period i...

A brief introduction to probability.

Science.gov (United States)

Di Paola, Gioacchino; Bertani, Alessandro; De Monte, Lavinia; Tuzzolino, Fabio

2018-02-01

The theory of probability has been debated for centuries: back in 1600, French mathematics used the rules of probability to place and win bets. Subsequently, the knowledge of probability has significantly evolved and is now an essential tool for statistics. In this paper, the basic theoretical principles of probability will be reviewed, with the aim of facilitating the comprehension of statistical inference. After a brief general introduction on probability, we will review the concept of the "probability distribution" that is a function providing the probabilities of occurrence of different possible outcomes of a categorical or continuous variable. Specific attention will be focused on normal distribution that is the most relevant distribution applied to statistical analysis.

One idea of portfolio risk control for absolute return strategy risk adjustments by signals from correlation behavior

Science.gov (United States)

Nishiyama, N.

2001-12-01

Absolute return strategy provided from fund of funds (FOFs) investment schemes is the focus in Japanese Financial Community. FOFs investment mainly consists of hedge fund investment and it has two major characteristics which are low correlation against benchmark index and little impact from various external changes in the environment given maximizing return. According to the historical track record of survival hedge funds in this business world, they maintain a stable high return and low risk. However, one must keep in mind that low risk would not be equal to risk free. The failure of Long-term capital management (LTCM) that took place in the summer of 1998 was a symbolized phenomenon. The summer of 1998 exhibited a certain limitation of traditional value at risk (VaR) and some possibility that traditional VaR could be ineffectual to the nonlinear type of fluctuation in the market. In this paper, I try to bring self-organized criticality (SOC) into portfolio risk control. SOC would be well known as a model of decay in the natural world. I analyzed nonlinear type of fluctuation in the market as SOC and applied SOC to capture complicated market movement using threshold point of SOC and risk adjustments by scenario correlation as implicit signals. Threshold becomes the control parameter of risk exposure to set downside floor and forecast extreme nonlinear type of fluctuation under a certain probability. Simulation results would show synergy effect of portfolio risk control between SOC and absolute return strategy.

Choice probability generating functions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel; Bierlaire, Michel

2013-01-01

This paper considers discrete choice, with choice probabilities coming from maximization of preferences from a random utility field perturbed by additive location shifters (ARUM). Any ARUM can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) whose gradient gives the choice...... probabilities, and every CPGF is consistent with an ARUM. We relate CPGF to multivariate extreme value distributions, and review and extend methods for constructing CPGF for applications. The choice probabilities of any ARUM may be approximated by a cross-nested logit model. The results for ARUM are extended...

Probability of satellite collision

Science.gov (United States)

Mccarter, J. W.

1972-01-01

A method is presented for computing the probability of a collision between a particular artificial earth satellite and any one of the total population of earth satellites. The collision hazard incurred by the proposed modular Space Station is assessed using the technique presented. The results of a parametric study to determine what type of satellite orbits produce the greatest contribution to the total collision probability are presented. Collision probability for the Space Station is given as a function of Space Station altitude and inclination. Collision probability was also parameterized over miss distance and mission duration.

Real analysis and probability

CERN Document Server

Ash, Robert B; Lukacs, E

1972-01-01

Real Analysis and Probability provides the background in real analysis needed for the study of probability. Topics covered range from measure and integration theory to functional analysis and basic concepts of probability. The interplay between measure theory and topology is also discussed, along with conditional probability and expectation, the central limit theorem, and strong laws of large numbers with respect to martingale theory.Comprised of eight chapters, this volume begins with an overview of the basic concepts of the theory of measure and integration, followed by a presentation of var

Significance of T2 Hyperintensity on Magnetic Resonance Imaging After Cervical Cord Injury and Return to Play in Professional Athletes.

Science.gov (United States)

Tempel, Zachary J; Bost, Jeffrey W; Norwig, John A; Maroon, Joseph C

2015-07-01

Cervical cord magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) T2 hyperintensity is used as evidence of cord trauma in the evaluation and management of athletes in contact sports. The long-term pathophysiologic and prognostic value of this finding is poorly understood, especially in return to play (RTP). To examine the significance of T2 hyperintensity in the cervical spinal cord of professional athletes. Retrospective review of MRI T2 hyperintensity findings between 2007 and 2014 in 5 professional athletes. Pertinent examination and demographics, including mechanism of injury, surgical intervention, radiographs, MRI studies, long-term outcomes, and RTP recommendations were collected. Four National Football League players and 1 professional wrestler had prior traumatic neurapraxia that at the time of initial consultation had resolved. MRIs showed congenitally small cervical canal (1) and multilevel spondylosis/stenosis/disc herniation (4) along with focal cord T2 hyperintensity (5). The signal abnormalities were at C3/C4 (3), C4 mid-vertebral body (1), and C5/C6 (1). Four athletes had single-level anterior cervical discectomy and fusion, and 1 was nonoperative. Serial MRI imaging at 3 months after surgery showed hyperintensity partially resolved (4) and unchanged (1), and at 9-months 3 of the 5 completely resolved. Based on the author's RTP criteria, 4 of 5 were released to return to their sport. Clearance for RTP preceded complete resolution of MRI T2 hyperintensity in 3 of 4 athletes. The 2 athletes that have returned to profession sport have not had any additional episodes of neurapraxia or any cervical spine-related complications. MRI T2 hyperintensity in contact sport athletes who are symptom-free with normal examination and no evidence of spinal instability may not be a contraindication to RTP. Additional observations are needed to confirm this observation.

Probability and Measure

CERN Document Server

Billingsley, Patrick

2012-01-01

Praise for the Third Edition "It is, as far as I'm concerned, among the best books in math ever written....if you are a mathematician and want to have the top reference in probability, this is it." (Amazon.com, January 2006) A complete and comprehensive classic in probability and measure theory Probability and Measure, Anniversary Edition by Patrick Billingsley celebrates the achievements and advancements that have made this book a classic in its field for the past 35 years. Now re-issued in a new style and format, but with the reliable content that the third edition was revered for, this

Can we enhance the ability to return to work among workers with stress-related disorders?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andersen Johan

2009-10-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Stress-related disorders are widespread and responsible for high societal costs e.g. sick leave payment and reduced productivity. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of an intervention program on return to work or labour market. Methods In a controlled interventional study design we compared 72 emotionally distressed patients, who received support during 2006, with 89 control individuals who had also been sick listed for emotional distress. Intervention was provided by trained psychologists and social workers who were in continuous dialog with the patients, providing counselling e.g. on decisions concerning resumption of work, support to families, participation in meetings with the workplace. Basically, the controls and the intervention group share the same access to welfare benefits. The main outcome was time to return to labour market (TTR. Results The baseline characteristics were similar in the two groups. There were no differences in the rate of resuming work between the two groups. About 80% in both groups had returned to the labour market after one year. Conclusion An intervention program with psychological stress management and case management did not improve work capability compared to usual care. Work resumption as a single outcome probably is an insensitive parameter of intervention management quality, and should be supplemented by other data on different aspects of treatment.

Mars Earth Return Vehicle (MERV) Propulsion Options

Science.gov (United States)

Oleson, Steven R.; McGuire, Melissa L.; Burke, Laura; Fincannon, James; Warner, Joe; Williams, Glenn; Parkey, Thomas; Colozza, Tony; Fittje, Jim; Martini, Mike;

Linkage between company scores and stock returns

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Saban Celik

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Previous studies on company scores conducted at firm-level, generally concluded that there exists a positive relation between company scores and stock returns. Motivated by these studies, this study examines the relationship between company scores (Corporate Governance Score, Economic Score, Environmental Score, and Social Score and stock returns, both at portfolio-level analysis and firm-level cross-sectional regressions. In portfolio-level analysis, stocks are sorted based on each company scores and quintile portfolio are formed with different levels of company scores. Then, existence and significance of raw returns and risk-adjusted returns difference between portfolios with the extreme company scores (portfolio 10 and portfolio 1 is tested. In addition, firm-level cross-sectional regression is performed to examine the significance of company scores effects with control variables. While portfolio-level analysis results indicate that there is no significant relation between company scores and stock returns; firm-level analysis indicates that economic, environmental, and social scores have effect on stock returns, however, significance and direction of these effects change, depending on the included control variables in the cross-sectional regression.

Experimental Probability in Elementary School

Science.gov (United States)

Andrew, Lane

2009-01-01

Concepts in probability can be more readily understood if students are first exposed to probability via experiment. Performing probability experiments encourages students to develop understandings of probability grounded in real events, as opposed to merely computing answers based on formulae.

Contact isotopic- and contact ion-exchange between two adsorbents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bunzl, K.; Mohan, R.; Haimerl, M.

1975-01-01

The kinetics of contact ion exchange processes between an ion exchange membrane and resin ion exchange beads, stirred in pure water, was investigated. A general criterion was derived, which indicates whether diffusion of the ions between the intermingling electric double layers or the collision frequency between the two adsorbents is the rate dermining step. Since the latter process proved to be rate controlling under our experimental conditions, the corresponding rate equations were derived under various initial and boundary conditions. Experimentally, the kinetics of contact isotopic exchange of Cs + - and Na + -ions as well as of the reverse contact ion exchange process of Cs + -versus Na + -ions were investigated by using Na 22 and Cs 137 radioisotopes. The experiments reveal in quantitative accord with the theory that the rate of collision controlled contact ion exchange processes depends mainly on the 'exchange coefficient', the separation factor and the collision frequency. While the latter two quantities were determined independently by separate experiments, the 'exchange coefficient' was evaluated from a contact isotopic exchange experiment. (orig.) [de

ComplexContact: a web server for inter-protein contact prediction using deep learning

KAUST Repository

Zeng, Hong; Wang, Sheng; Zhou, Tianming; Zhao, Feifeng; Li, Xiufeng; Wu, Qing; Xu, Jinbo

2018-01-01

ComplexContact (http://raptorx2.uchicago.edu/ComplexContact/) is a web server for sequence-based interfacial residue-residue contact prediction of a putative protein complex. Interfacial residue-residue contacts are critical for understanding how proteins form complex and interact at residue level. When receiving a pair of protein sequences, ComplexContact first searches for their sequence homologs and builds two paired multiple sequence alignments (MSA), then it applies co-evolution analysis and a CASP-winning deep learning (DL) method to predict interfacial contacts from paired MSAs and visualizes the prediction as an image. The DL method was originally developed for intra-protein contact prediction and performed the best in CASP12. Our large-scale experimental test further shows that ComplexContact greatly outperforms pure co-evolution methods for inter-protein contact prediction, regardless of the species.

ComplexContact: a web server for inter-protein contact prediction using deep learning

KAUST Repository

Zeng, Hong

2018-05-20

ComplexContact (http://raptorx2.uchicago.edu/ComplexContact/) is a web server for sequence-based interfacial residue-residue contact prediction of a putative protein complex. Interfacial residue-residue contacts are critical for understanding how proteins form complex and interact at residue level. When receiving a pair of protein sequences, ComplexContact first searches for their sequence homologs and builds two paired multiple sequence alignments (MSA), then it applies co-evolution analysis and a CASP-winning deep learning (DL) method to predict interfacial contacts from paired MSAs and visualizes the prediction as an image. The DL method was originally developed for intra-protein contact prediction and performed the best in CASP12. Our large-scale experimental test further shows that ComplexContact greatly outperforms pure co-evolution methods for inter-protein contact prediction, regardless of the species.

ComplexContact: a web server for inter-protein contact prediction using deep learning.

Science.gov (United States)

Zeng, Hong; Wang, Sheng; Zhou, Tianming; Zhao, Feifeng; Li, Xiufeng; Wu, Qing; Xu, Jinbo

2018-05-22

ComplexContact (http://raptorx2.uchicago.edu/ComplexContact/) is a web server for sequence-based interfacial residue-residue contact prediction of a putative protein complex. Interfacial residue-residue contacts are critical for understanding how proteins form complex and interact at residue level. When receiving a pair of protein sequences, ComplexContact first searches for their sequence homologs and builds two paired multiple sequence alignments (MSA), then it applies co-evolution analysis and a CASP-winning deep learning (DL) method to predict interfacial contacts from paired MSAs and visualizes the prediction as an image. The DL method was originally developed for intra-protein contact prediction and performed the best in CASP12. Our large-scale experimental test further shows that ComplexContact greatly outperforms pure co-evolution methods for inter-protein contact prediction, regardless of the species.

The Croatian Government and Programmes Regarding the Return of War Migrants: between Plans and Realisations – the Experience of The Brod-Posavina County

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dragutin Babić

2002-04-01

Full Text Available The paper analyses the Croatian government’s programme documents regarding the return and caring for of war migrants. Its aim is to analyse and explain documents, formulated on the national level, as well as those on various local levels in the Brod-Posavina county, and to evaluate their implementation. Return flows began in 1992, after war operations settled down in Croatia. The first returnees were persons whose settlements had not been occupied and who could move into their dwellings straightforwardly. The return of war migrants, as a state strategy, came to the forefront after conclusion of the war in Croatia and Bosnia and Herzegovina and after the signing of the agreement on peaceful reintegration of the Croatian Danubian lands into the Republic of Croatia’s state and legislative system. Croatia recognises the right of all war migrants to return to their homes. Return of dispersed persons and refugees involves various aspects, ranging from state-security problems to pension, economic, social and psychological aspects. The question of return, apart from issues pertaining to the renewal of material structures, includes also the (reconstruction of local communities, which will probably be the most difficult problem to resolve during the process of return. The chances of co-existence of various war migrant groups, especially Croats and Serbs, remain the most important and also the most difficult problem arising in this context. Documents dealing with return are numerous, yet they have been, for the most part, formulated on the national level; much more rarely on the level of local units and return destinations, which is also the main difficulty in regard to the institutional regulation of return flows. Local units mostly act only as intermediaries between international organisations that finance return and individual returnees receiving financial aid or credit. The return of war migrants is mainly financed out of the Republic of Croatia�

An analytical model and parametric study of electrical contact resistance in proton exchange membrane fuel cells

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wu, Zhiliang; Wang, Shuxin; Zhang, Lianhong [School of Mechanical Engineering, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072 (China); Hu, S. Jack [Department of Mechanical Engineering, The University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109-2125 (United States)

2009-04-15

This paper presents an analytical model of the electrical contact resistance between the carbon paper gas diffusion layers (GDLs) and the graphite bipolar plates (BPPs) in a proton exchange membrane (PEM) fuel cell. The model is developed based on the classical statistical contact theory for a PEM fuel cell, using the same probability distributions of the GDL structure and BPP surface profile as previously described in Wu et al. [Z. Wu, Y. Zhou, G. Lin, S. Wang, S.J. Hu, J. Power Sources 182 (2008) 265-269] and Zhou et al. [Y. Zhou, G. Lin, A.J. Shih, S.J. Hu, J. Power Sources 163 (2007) 777-783]. Results show that estimates of the contact resistance compare favorably with experimental data by Zhou et al. [Y. Zhou, G. Lin, A.J. Shih, S.J. Hu, J. Power Sources 163 (2007) 777-783]. Factors affecting the contact behavior are systematically studied using the analytical model, including the material properties of the two contact bodies and factors arising from the manufacturing processes. The transverse Young's modulus of chopped carbon fibers in the GDL and the surface profile of the BPP are found to be significant to the contact resistance. The factor study also sheds light on the manufacturing requirements of carbon fiber GDLs for a better contact performance in PEM fuel cells. (author)

Current knowledge on biomarkers for contact sensitization and allergic contact dermatitis.

Science.gov (United States)

Koppes, Sjors A; Engebretsen, Kristiane A; Agner, Tove; Angelova-Fischer, Irena; Berents, Teresa; Brandner, Johanna; Brans, Richard; Clausen, Maja-Lisa; Hummler, Edith; Jakasa, Ivone; Jurakić-Tončic, Ružica; John, Swen M; Khnykin, Denis; Molin, Sonja; Holm, Jan O; Suomela, Sari; Thierse, Hermann-Josef; Kezic, Sanja; Martin, Stefan F; Thyssen, Jacob P

2017-07-01

Contact sensitization is common and affects up to 20% of the general population. The clinical manifestation of contact sensitization is allergic contact dermatitis. This is a clinical expression that is sometimes difficult to distinguish from other types of dermatitis, for example irritant and atopic dermatitis. Several studies have examined the pathogenesis and severity of allergic contact dermatitis by measuring the absence or presence of various biomarkers. In this review, we provide a non-systematic overview of biomarkers that have been studied in allergic contact dermatitis. These include genetic variations and mutations, inflammatory mediators, alarmins, proteases, immunoproteomics, lipids, natural moisturizing factors, tight junctions, and antimicrobial peptides. We conclude that, despite the enormous amount of data, convincing specific biomarkers for allergic contact dermatitis are yet to be described. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Quaternionic contact Einstein structures and the quaternionic contact Yamabe problem

CERN Document Server

Ivanov, Stefan; Vassilev, Dimiter

2014-01-01

A partial solution of the quaternionic contact Yamabe problem on the quaternionic sphere is given. It is shown that the torsion of the Biquard connection vanishes exactly when the trace-free part of the horizontal Ricci tensor of the Biquard connection is zero and this occurs precisely on 3-Sasakian manifolds. All conformal transformations sending the standard flat torsion-free quaternionic contact structure on the quaternionic Heisenberg group to a quaternionic contact structure with vanishing torsion of the Biquard connection are explicitly described. A "3-Hamiltonian form" of infinitesimal conformal automorphisms of quaternionic contact structures is presented.

Inactive nurses in Taiwan: human capital, intention to return to hospital nursing, and incentives for returning.

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Hsing-Yi; Tang, Fu-In; Chen, I-Ju; Yin, Teresa J C; Chen, Chu-Chieh; Yu, Shu

2016-04-01

To investigate inactive nurses' human capital, intention to return to hospital nursing and incentives for returning. Few studies have discussed the loss of human capital with regard to inactive nurses and how to attract them to return to clinical work. Systematic random sampling was used, with 328 subjects completing the mailed questionnaires, resulting in a response rate of 25.4%. Inactive nurses not only had moderate to high human capital (average years of nursing experience was 10.29, with moderate to high levels of nursing professional commitment and nursing competence) and were young. Forty-three percent of subjects reported intending to return to hospital nursing. Sufficient nurse staffing, greater safety in the working environment, and re-entry preparation programmes were incentives for returning. Recruiting inactive nurses back to hospital work is vital and feasible as inactive nurses had a moderate to high degree of human capital. The most feasible way is offering reasonable working conditions, in particular, providing sufficient staffing, a safe working environment and re-entry preparation programmes. The findings confirm the human capital of inactive nurses and provide concrete directions for nursing managers to follow when recruiting inactive nurses to hospital nursing. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Work Status and Return to the Workforce after Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting and/or Heart Valve Surgery: A One-Year-Follow Up Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Fonager, Kirsten; Lundbye-Christensen, Søren; Andreasen, Jan Jesper; Futtrup, Mikkel; Christensen, Anette Luther; Ahmad, Khalil; Nørgaard, Martin Agge

2014-01-01

Background. Several characteristics appear to be important for estimating the likelihood of reentering the workforce after surgery. The aim of the present study was to describe work status in a two-year time period around the time of cardiac surgery and estimate the probability of returning to the workforce. Methods. We included 681 patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting and/or heart valve procedures from 2003 to 2007 in the North Denmark Region. We linked hospital data to data in the DREAM database which holds information of everyone receiving social benefits. Results. At the time of surgery 17.3% were allocated disability pension and 2.3% were allocated a permanent part-time benefit. Being unemployed one year before surgery reduced the likelihood of return to the workforce (RR = 0.74 (0.60-0.92)) whereas unemployment at the time of surgery had no impact on return to the workforce (RR = 0.96 (0.78-1.18)). Sickness absence before surgery reduced the likelihood of return to the workforce. Conclusion. This study found the work status before surgery to be associated with the likelihood of return to the workforce within one year after surgery. Before surgery one-fifth of the population either was allocated disability pension or received a permanent part-time benefit.

[Sense of Coherence Scale according to Antonovsky as a possible predictor for return to work for cardiac surgery intensive care patients].

Science.gov (United States)

Benstoem, C; Wübker, R; Lüngen, M; Breuer, T; Marx, G; Autschbach, R; Goetzenich, A; Schnoering, H

2018-05-14

For cardiac surgery patients who were employed prior to surgery, the return to their professional life is of special importance. In addition to medical reasons, such as pre-existing conditions, the success of the operation or postoperative course and patient-intrinsic reasons, which can be assessed with the Sense of Coherence (SOC) scale by Antonovsky, may also play a role in the question of a possible return into working life. In this study 278 patients (invasive coronary artery bypass graft surgery and/or surgery on heart valves, age work. The cohort was stratified according to the time of return to work. Subsequently, the point of maximum sensitivity and specificity was determined for the total SOC score and the prediction power was considered. Of the 278 patients, 61 questionnaires (22%) were considered as eligible and included in the analysis. Of these, 47 participants had returned to work after undergoing cardiac surgery and 14 participants had not. We observed significant differences in SOC values between both groups (146.07 ± 29.76 versus 124.29 ± 28.8, p = 0.020). Patients that returned to work within the first 6 months after surgery showed even higher SOC scores (148.56 ± 28.98, p = 0.034). Patients with an SOC score life after cardiac surgery. The SOC is an easily obtainable score that reliably predicts the probability of return to work after cardiac surgery.

Contact Dermatitis in Pediatrics.

Science.gov (United States)

Pelletier, Janice L; Perez, Caroline; Jacob, Sharon E

2016-08-01

Contact dermatitis is an umbrella term that describes the skin's reaction to contacted noxious or allergenic substances. The two main categories of contact dermatitis are irritant type and allergic type. This review discusses the signs, symptoms, causes, and complications of contact dermatitis. It addresses the testing, treatment, and prevention of contact dermatitis. Proper management of contact dermatitis includes avoidance measures for susceptible children. Implementation of a nickel directive (regulating the use of nickel in jewelry and other products that come into contact with the skin) could further reduce exposure to the most common allergens in the pediatric population. [Pediatr Ann. 2016;45(8):e287-e292.]. Copyright 2016, SLACK Incorporated.

Probabilities in physics

CERN Document Server

Hartmann, Stephan

2011-01-01

Many results of modern physics--those of quantum mechanics, for instance--come in a probabilistic guise. But what do probabilistic statements in physics mean? Are probabilities matters of objective fact and part of the furniture of the world, as objectivists think? Or do they only express ignorance or belief, as Bayesians suggest? And how are probabilistic hypotheses justified and supported by empirical evidence? Finally, what does the probabilistic nature of physics imply for our understanding of the world? This volume is the first to provide a philosophical appraisal of probabilities in all of physics. Its main aim is to make sense of probabilistic statements as they occur in the various physical theories and models and to provide a plausible epistemology and metaphysics of probabilities. The essays collected here consider statistical physics, probabilistic modelling, and quantum mechanics, and critically assess the merits and disadvantages of objectivist and subjectivist views of probabilities in these fie...

Probability an introduction

CERN Document Server

Grimmett, Geoffrey

2014-01-01

Probability is an area of mathematics of tremendous contemporary importance across all aspects of human endeavour. This book is a compact account of the basic features of probability and random processes at the level of first and second year mathematics undergraduates and Masters' students in cognate fields. It is suitable for a first course in probability, plus a follow-up course in random processes including Markov chains. A special feature is the authors' attention to rigorous mathematics: not everything is rigorous, but the need for rigour is explained at difficult junctures. The text is enriched by simple exercises, together with problems (with very brief hints) many of which are taken from final examinations at Cambridge and Oxford. The first eight chapters form a course in basic probability, being an account of events, random variables, and distributions - discrete and continuous random variables are treated separately - together with simple versions of the law of large numbers and the central limit th...

Evaluation of nuclear power plant component failure probability and core damage probability using simplified PSA model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shimada, Yoshio

2000-01-01

It is anticipated that the change of frequency of surveillance tests, preventive maintenance or parts replacement of safety related components may cause the change of component failure probability and result in the change of core damage probability. It is also anticipated that the change is different depending on the initiating event frequency or the component types. This study assessed the change of core damage probability using simplified PSA model capable of calculating core damage probability in a short time period, which is developed by the US NRC to process accident sequence precursors, when various component's failure probability is changed between 0 and 1, or Japanese or American initiating event frequency data are used. As a result of the analysis, (1) It was clarified that frequency of surveillance test, preventive maintenance or parts replacement of motor driven pumps (high pressure injection pumps, residual heat removal pumps, auxiliary feedwater pumps) should be carefully changed, since the core damage probability's change is large, when the base failure probability changes toward increasing direction. (2) Core damage probability change is insensitive to surveillance test frequency change, since the core damage probability change is small, when motor operated valves and turbine driven auxiliary feed water pump failure probability changes around one figure. (3) Core damage probability change is small, when Japanese failure probability data are applied to emergency diesel generator, even if failure probability changes one figure from the base value. On the other hand, when American failure probability data is applied, core damage probability increase is large, even if failure probability changes toward increasing direction. Therefore, when Japanese failure probability data is applied, core damage probability change is insensitive to surveillance tests frequency change etc. (author)

Decision-making on Population Return At the End of an Eruption

Science.gov (United States)

Woo, G.

2015-12-01

If an eruption sequence is protracted and episodic, continuing for many months, or even a number of years, it can be very difficult for authorities to decide when an evacuated population might be allowed to return. A precautionary approach may be appropriate as a general principle, especially if the societal implications are deemed to be manageable. However, where the livelihoods of the evacuees are critically at stake, such as with farmers, and the economic costs of continuing evacuation are high, a risk-informed approach to supporting decision-making might be warranted. Such an approach has been developed, based on concepts drawn from cost-benefit analysis. On any given day during an extended volcanic crisis, a decision-maker may wish to consider whether to allow then for the return of evacuees. A delay of a decision by one day will increase the evacuation cost by one day's worth of accommodation and economic disruption. On the other hand, there is a small chance that there might be an onset to another eruption on this given day, so there would be a safety benefit in the delay. The task of quantifying this safety benefit requires a coherent synthesis of all the volcano monitoring data time series, together with an assessment of the medium and long-term historical and geological data, so that the probability of each of the alternative eruptive scenarios can be scientifically estimated. Bayesian belief networks provide a convenient framework for this synthesis. For each scenario, the potential casualty implications for returned evacuees need to be assessed. The application of this end of eruption methodology is illustrated and compared with the equivalent decision-making procedure at the start of an eruption.

Exploring Longitudinal Risk-return Relationships

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Torben J.; Bettis, Richard A.

2015-01-01

We study a longitudinal fit model of adaptation and its association with the longitudinal risk-return relationship. The model allows the firm to adjust its position in response to partial learning about a changing environment characterized by two path-dependent processes—a random walk and a stoch......We study a longitudinal fit model of adaptation and its association with the longitudinal risk-return relationship. The model allows the firm to adjust its position in response to partial learning about a changing environment characterized by two path-dependent processes—a random walk...... can lead to the inverse longitudinal risk-return relationships observed empirically. We discuss this apparent paradox and the possible resolution between mindless and conscious behavior as plausible causes of the longitudinal Bowman Paradox....

Projecting social contact matrices in 152 countries using contact surveys and demographic data.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kiesha Prem

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Heterogeneities in contact networks have a major effect in determining whether a pathogen can become epidemic or persist at endemic levels. Epidemic models that determine which interventions can successfully prevent an outbreak need to account for social structure and mixing patterns. Contact patterns vary across age and locations (e.g. home, work, and school, and including them as predictors in transmission dynamic models of pathogens that spread socially will improve the models' realism. Data from population-based contact diaries in eight European countries from the POLYMOD study were projected to 144 other countries using a Bayesian hierarchical model that estimated the proclivity of age-and-location-specific contact patterns for the countries, using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. Household level data from the Demographic and Health Surveys for nine lower-income countries and socio-demographic factors from several on-line databases for 152 countries were used to quantify similarity of countries to estimate contact patterns in the home, work, school and other locations for countries for which no contact data are available, accounting for demographic structure, household structure where known, and a variety of metrics including workforce participation and school enrolment. Contacts are highly assortative with age across all countries considered, but pronounced regional differences in the age-specific contacts at home were noticeable, with more inter-generational contacts in Asian countries than in other settings. Moreover, there were variations in contact patterns by location, with work-place contacts being least assortative. These variations led to differences in the effect of social distancing measures in an age structured epidemic model. Contacts have an important role in transmission dynamic models that use contact rates to characterize the spread of contact-transmissible diseases. This study provides estimates of mixing patterns for

Projecting social contact matrices in 152 countries using contact surveys and demographic data.

Science.gov (United States)

Prem, Kiesha; Cook, Alex R; Jit, Mark

2017-09-01

Heterogeneities in contact networks have a major effect in determining whether a pathogen can become epidemic or persist at endemic levels. Epidemic models that determine which interventions can successfully prevent an outbreak need to account for social structure and mixing patterns. Contact patterns vary across age and locations (e.g. home, work, and school), and including them as predictors in transmission dynamic models of pathogens that spread socially will improve the models' realism. Data from population-based contact diaries in eight European countries from the POLYMOD study were projected to 144 other countries using a Bayesian hierarchical model that estimated the proclivity of age-and-location-specific contact patterns for the countries, using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. Household level data from the Demographic and Health Surveys for nine lower-income countries and socio-demographic factors from several on-line databases for 152 countries were used to quantify similarity of countries to estimate contact patterns in the home, work, school and other locations for countries for which no contact data are available, accounting for demographic structure, household structure where known, and a variety of metrics including workforce participation and school enrolment. Contacts are highly assortative with age across all countries considered, but pronounced regional differences in the age-specific contacts at home were noticeable, with more inter-generational contacts in Asian countries than in other settings. Moreover, there were variations in contact patterns by location, with work-place contacts being least assortative. These variations led to differences in the effect of social distancing measures in an age structured epidemic model. Contacts have an important role in transmission dynamic models that use contact rates to characterize the spread of contact-transmissible diseases. This study provides estimates of mixing patterns for societies for which

Contact allergy and allergic contact dermatitis in adolescents: prevalence measures and associations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mørtz, Charlotte G; Lauritsen, Jens Martin; Bindslev-Jensen, Carsten

2002-01-01

The aims of this cross-sectional study were to establish the prevalence measures of contact allergy and allergic contact dermatitis in 8th grade schoolchildren (aged 12-16 years) in Odense, Denmark, and to examine the associations with atopic dermatitis, inhalant allergy and hand eczema. Contact...... allergy to a standard series allergen was found in 15.2% of schoolchildren. The point prevalence of allergic contact dermatitis was 0.7% and the lifetime prevalence 7.2%, predominantly in girls. The most common contact allergens were nickel (8.6%) and fragrance mix (1.8%). Nickel allergy was clinically...... relevant in 69% and fragrance allergy in 29% of cases. A significant association was found between contact allergy and hand eczema while no association was found between contact allergy and atopic dermatitis or inhalant allergy. In the future this cohort of schoolchildren will be followed with regard...

The Reference Return Ratio

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nicolaisen, Jeppe; Faber Frandsen, Tove

2008-01-01

The paper introduces a new journal impact measure called The Reference Return Ratio (3R). Unlike the traditional Journal Impact Factor (JIF), which is based on calculations of publications and citations, the new measure is based on calculations of bibliographic investments (references) and returns...... (citations). A comparative study of the two measures shows a strong relationship between the 3R and the JIF. Yet, the 3R appears to correct for citation habits, citation dynamics, and composition of document types - problems that typically are raised against the JIF. In addition, contrary to traditional...

Return to nucleate boiling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shumway, R.W.

1985-01-01

This paper presents a collection of TMIN (temperature of return to nucleate boiling) correlations, evaluates them under several conditions, and compares them with a wide range of data. Purpose is to obtain the best one for use in a water reactor safety computer simulator known as TRAC-B. Return to nucleate boiling can occur in a reactor accident at either high or low pressure and flow rates. Most of the correlations yield unrealistic results under some conditions. A new correlation is proposed which overcomes many of the deficiencies

Introduction to probability

CERN Document Server

Freund, John E

1993-01-01

Thorough, lucid coverage of permutations and factorials, probabilities and odds, frequency interpretation, mathematical expectation, decision making, postulates of probability, rule of elimination, binomial distribution, geometric distribution, standard deviation, law of large numbers, and much more. Exercises with some solutions. Summary. Bibliography. Includes 42 black-and-white illustrations. 1973 edition.

Current knowledge on biomarkers for contact sensitization and allergic contact dermatitis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Koppes, Sjors A.; Engebretsen, Kristiane A.; Agner, Tove; Angelova-Fischer, Irena; Berents, Teresa; Brandner, Johanna; Brans, Richard; Clausen, Maja-Lisa; Hummler, Edith; Jakasa, Ivone; Jurakić-Tončic, Ružica; John, Swen M.; Khnykin, Denis; Molin, Sonja; Holm, Jan O.; Suomela, Sari; Thierse, Hermann-Josef; Kezic, Sanja; Martin, Stefan F.; Thyssen, Jacob P.

2017-01-01

Contact sensitization is common and affects up to 20% of the general population. The clinical manifestation of contact sensitization is allergic contact dermatitis. This is a clinical expression that is sometimes difficult to distinguish from other types of dermatitis, for example irritant and

Different forms, reasons and motivations for return migration of persons who voluntarily decide to return to their countries of origin.

Science.gov (United States)

Callea, S

1986-03-01

Although the 1973 oil crisis did not have the drastic effects on immigration which were originally feared, it did end a period of quasi-liberal immigration policy, establish intense and effective international cooperation on immigration, and arouse great interest in immigration studies and research. This paper analyzes the situations arising as a result of the petroleum shortage and focuses on the conditions relating to the return of emigrants to Southern European countries. This new research draws attention to the following fundamental aspects of the immigration problem: 1) the emigrant's return to his homeland cannot be considered a factor in development; it is a positive element in development only if the right socioeconomic conditions exist in the country of origin. 2) Concern for children's education is one of the most common reasons for return. 3) A large percentage of emigrants are satisfied with their work abroad. 4) An emigrant's return potential is wasted due to the slight use that is made of the resources he offers. 5) Returning workers most often want to set up an independent enterprise. 6) Savings are generally used to buy a house or farm. 7) Vocational level does not increase significantly between emigration and returning, though this increase becomes greater the longer the emigrant stays abroad. 8) The number of returning emigrants is too slight to bring about any change in the country of origin. 9) Incentives and subsidies to encourage return have not had a considerable impact on the decision to return. Callea recommends that officials of the country of origin posted abroad be assigned to counsel returning emigrants on finding employment, attending vocational development courses, obtaining housing, accruing interests and savings, and on the problems and perspectives of sociocultural reintegration.

Survival probability of a local excitation in a non-Markovian environment: Survival collapse, Zeno and anti-Zeno effects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rufeil-Fiori, E.; Pastawski, H.M.

2009-01-01

The decay dynamics of a local excitation interacting with a non-Markovian environment, modeled by a semi-infinite tight-binding chain, is exactly evaluated. We identify distinctive regimes for the dynamics. Sequentially: (i) early quadratic decay of the initial-state survival probability, up to a spreading time t S , (ii) exponential decay described by a self-consistent Fermi Golden Rule, and (iii) asymptotic behavior governed by quantum diffusion through the return processes, leading to an inverse power law decay. At this last cross-over time t R a survival collapse becomes possible. This could reduce the survival probability by several orders of magnitude. The cross-over times t S and t R allow to assess the range of applicability of the Fermi Golden Rule and give the conditions for the observation of the Zeno and anti-Zeno effect.

Numerical study on the stick-slip motion of contact line moving on heterogeneous surfaces

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Ming; Chen, Xiao-Peng

2017-08-01

We present a numerical study of a moving contact line (CL) crossing the intersecting region of hydrophilic and hydrophobic patterns on a solid wall using lattice Boltzmann methods (LBMs). To capture the interface between the two phases properly, we applied a phase field model coupled with the LBM. The evolutions of the CL velocity, dynamic contact angle, and apparent contact angle are analyzed for the so-called "stick" and "slip" processes. In the two processes, the evolution of the quantities follows different rules shortly after the initial quick transition, which is probably caused by finite interfacial thickness or non-equilibrium effects. For the stick process, the CL is almost fixed and energy is extracted from the main flow to rebuild the meniscus' profile. The evolution of the meniscus is mainly governed by mass conservation. The CL is depinned after the apparent contact angle surpasses the dynamic one, which implies that the interfacial segment in the vicinity of contact line is bended. For the slip process, the quantities evolve with features of relaxation. In the microscopic scale, the velocity of the CL depends on the balance between unbalanced Young's capillary force and viscous drag. To predict the apparent contact angle evolution, a model following the dynamics of an overdamped spring-mass system is proposed. Our results also show that the capillary flows in a channel with heterogeneous wall can be described generally with the Poiseuille flow superimposed by the above transient one.

Relationship between the real contact area and contact force in pre-sliding regime

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Song Baojiang; Yan Shaoze

2017-01-01

The pre-sliding regime is typically neglected in the dynamic modelling of mechanical systems. However, the change in contact state caused by static friction may decrease positional accuracy and control precision. To investigate the relationship between contact status and contact force in pre-sliding friction, an optical experimental method is presented in this paper. With this method, the real contact state at the interface of a transparent material can be observed based on the total reflection principle of light by using an image processing technique. A novel setup, which includes a pair of rectangular trapezoidal blocks, is proposed to solve the challenging issue of accurately applying different tangential and normal forces to the contact interface. The improved Otsu’s method is used for measurement. Through an experimental study performed on polymethyl methacrylate (PMMA), the quantity of contact asperities is proven to be the dominant factor that affects the real contact area. The relationship between the real contact area and the contact force in the pre-sliding regime is studied, and the distribution of static friction at the contact interface is qualitatively discussed. New phenomena in which the real contact area expands along with increasing static friction are identified. The aforementioned relationship is approximately linear at the contact interface under a constant normal pressure, and the distribution of friction stress decreases from the leading edge to the trailing edge. (paper)

Contact mechanical characteristics of Nb3Sn strands under transverse electromagnetic loads in the CICC cross-section

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhu Jiyue; Luo Wei; Zhou Youhe; Zheng Xiaojing

2012-01-01

This paper presents a new code for the two-dimensional discrete element method (DEM) and relevant simulations to quantitatively characterize the contact force behavior of the Nb 3 Sn strands in the ITER CICC cross-section under a transverse electromagnetic load. In order to obtain the essential parameters in the contact force model employed in the DEM, a simulation of the experiments conducted by Nijhuis et al (2004 IEEE Trans. Appl. Supercond. 14 1489–94) is first performed, where the load–displacement curve predicted by the code is in good agreement with the measurements. After that, the contact force chain between strands and its distribution is quantitatively analyzed by the code. It is found that the contact force distribution among strands is heterogeneous and strongly anisotropic. In other words, the force chain distribution, which determines the behavior of the assembly of strands with discrete media, and the distribution of area average magnitude of the contact force are obviously inhomogeneous. To describe this inhomogeneity, here, the probability density function (PDF) is used in the statistical analysis. The numerical results show that the PDFs of the magnitudes of the resultant contact force, normal contact force, and tangential contact force all decay with an exponential law, and that PDFs of the directions of the contact forces are all anisotropic and exhibit about six periodic changes in which the peak values in the direction parallel to the applied electromagnetic load are appreciably larger than the other peaks. (paper)

Probably not future prediction using probability and statistical inference

CERN Document Server

Dworsky, Lawrence N

2008-01-01

An engaging, entertaining, and informative introduction to probability and prediction in our everyday lives Although Probably Not deals with probability and statistics, it is not heavily mathematical and is not filled with complex derivations, proofs, and theoretical problem sets. This book unveils the world of statistics through questions such as what is known based upon the information at hand and what can be expected to happen. While learning essential concepts including "the confidence factor" and "random walks," readers will be entertained and intrigued as they move from chapter to chapter. Moreover, the author provides a foundation of basic principles to guide decision making in almost all facets of life including playing games, developing winning business strategies, and managing personal finances. Much of the book is organized around easy-to-follow examples that address common, everyday issues such as: How travel time is affected by congestion, driving speed, and traffic lights Why different gambling ...

Contact Lens Risks

Science.gov (United States)

... There is a risk of eye infection from bacteria in swimming pool water, hot tubs, lakes and the ocean Replace your contact lens storage case every 3 months or as directed by your eye care professional. Other Risks of Contact Lenses Other risks of contact lenses include pink eye ( ...

Noneczematous Contact Dermatitis

Science.gov (United States)

Foti, Caterina; Vestita, Michelangelo; Angelini, Gianni

2013-01-01

Irritant or allergic contact dermatitis usually presents as an eczematous process, clinically characterized by erythematoedematovesicous lesions with intense itching in the acute phase. Such manifestations become erythematous-scaly as the condition progresses to the subacute phase and papular-hyperkeratotic in the chronic phase. Not infrequently, however, contact dermatitis presents with noneczematous features. The reasons underlying this clinical polymorphism lie in the different noxae and contact modalities, as well as in the individual susceptibility and the various targeted cutaneous structures. The most represented forms of non-eczematous contact dermatitis include the erythema multiforme-like, the purpuric, the lichenoid, and the pigmented kinds. These clinical entities must obviously be discerned from the corresponding “pure” dermatitis, which are not associated with contact with exogenous agents. PMID:24109520

MANAJEMEN LABA, RETURN SAHAM, DAN KINERJA OPERASI SEBAGAI PEMODERASI

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Farid Addy Sumantri

2017-09-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to determine the indications of the practice of earnings management at the time of the IPO, one year after the IPO, and two years after the IPO. This study also examined the effect of earnings management on stock returns and operating performance in moderating the relationship between earnings management and stock returns. The study sample comprised 33 firms that go public in the year 2007 to 2011 using a purposive sampling method. Earnings management is proxied by discretionary accruals using the Modified Jones Model, which used proxy for the stock return is cummulative abnormal returns (CAR, while for the company's operating performance used proxy for the return on assets (ROA. The results showed that there were indications of earnings management at the time of the IPO, one year after the IPO, and two years after the IPO with a lower profit rate. No effect on earnings management is proxied by stock return cummulative abnormal returns (CAR. Operating performance of the company also can not moderate the relationship between earnings management with stock return.   Keywords: Earning Management, Initial Public Offering, Cummulative Abnormal Return, Return On Asset

Risk Probabilities

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rojas-Nandayapa, Leonardo

Tail probabilities of sums of heavy-tailed random variables are of a major importance in various branches of Applied Probability, such as Risk Theory, Queueing Theory, Financial Management, and are subject to intense research nowadays. To understand their relevance one just needs to think...... analytic expression for the distribution function of a sum of random variables. The presence of heavy-tailed random variables complicates the problem even more. The objective of this dissertation is to provide better approximations by means of sharp asymptotic expressions and Monte Carlo estimators...

Probable tacrolimus toxicity from tibolone co-administration in a woman: a case report

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Clark Carolyn J

2010-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Introduction Tibolone is a synthetic steroid, used with increasing frequency to treat symptoms of menopause, including patients with solid-organ transplants who are taking concurrent immune suppression. To the best of our knowledge, there are no reported drug interactions between tibolone and tacrolimus, one of the principal immune suppressants used in kidney transplantation. Case presentation We report the case of a 49-year-old Caucasian woman who had received a kidney transplant and who developed acute kidney injury secondary to tacrolimus toxicity 10 days after starting tibolone therapy. No alternative causes were found. Tibolone is known to be a weak competitive inhibitor of CYP3A4, which is involved in tacrolimus metabolism. Conclusions Despite a careful evaluation, no alternative reason was found for the acute kidney injury, and her kidney function returned to the previous baseline within several days of cessation of the medication, and with no other specific treatment. Using the Drug Interaction Probability Scale we conclude that she experienced a probable drug interaction. We believe that transplant clinicians should utilise frequent therapeutic drug monitoring of tacrolimus in patients starting or stopping tibolone therapy.

Apparent Contact Angle and Contact Angle Hysteresis on Liquid Infused Surfaces

OpenAIRE

Semprebon, Ciro; McHale, Glen; Kusumaatmaja, Halim

2016-01-01

We theoretically investigate the apparent contact angle and contact angle hysteresis of a droplet placed on a liquid infused surface. We show that the apparent contact angle is not uniquely defined by material parameters, but also has a strong dependence on the relative size between the droplet and its surrounding wetting ridge formed by the infusing liquid. We derive a closed form expression for the contact angle in the limit of vanishing wetting ridge, and compute the correction for small b...

An outbreak of dengue virus (DENV) type 2 Cosmopolitan genotype in Israeli travellers returning from the Seychelles, April 2017.

Science.gov (United States)

Lustig, Yaniv; Wolf, Dana; Halutz, Ora; Schwartz, Eli

2017-06-29

Dengue virus infection was diagnosed in six Israeli travellers returning from the Seychelles in April 2017. Phylogenetic analysis identified identical sequences belonging to the Cosmopolitan genotype of dengue virus type 2 in all samples sequenced, thus providing evidence for a probable dengue type 2 outbreak in the Seychelles. This report further demonstrates the role of travellers as sentinels for arboviral infections, especially in countries with limited diagnostic capabilities. This article is copyright of The Authors, 2017.

[Analysis of aberration changes of the corneal anterior surface following discontinued use of rigid gas permeable contact lenses].

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Qing; Wu, Jiang-xiu; Zhang, He-ning; Ye, Sheng; Dong, Shi-qi; Zhang, Chen-hao

2011-04-01

The present study used a corneal topographic device to record aberrations on the anterior surface of the cornea at different time-points prior to wearing and following discontinued use of rigid gas permeable (RGP) contact lenses. The effect of wearing RGPCL on the anterior surface of the cornea was discussed to provide guidance for clinical refractive error correction. The study objects were 60 eyes from 30 patients. All patients underwent identical examination procedures prior to lens use, as well as afterwards, including slit-lamp examination, non-contact tonometer measurement, computer optometry & corneal curvature measurement, subjective refraction test, and corneal topography analysis. The patients wore contact lenses every day for 1 month and then discontinued. Corneal topographies were recorded at certain time points of 30 min, 1 day, 3 days, 1 week, and 2 weeks following use. Total corneal aberration at each time point following discontinued use of RGP contact lenses was less than the time point prior to use. Detailed results are as follows; root mean square (RMS) (pre) = (1.438 ± 0.328), RMS (30 min) = (1.076 ± 0.355), RMS (1 day) = (1.362 ± 0.402), RMS (3 day) = (1.373 ± 0.398), RMS (7 day) = (1.387 ± 0.415), and RMS (14 day) = (1.448 ± 0.423). Results showed that at 30 minutes after discontinued use of RGP contact lenses, almost all 2(nd)- and 3(rd)-order aberrations were altered. Quadrafoil Z10 and spherical Z12 of the 4(th)-order were also changed. Alterations to Z5, Z6, and Z12 at 1 day after discontinued use were significant compared with the time period prior to RGP use: Z5 and Z6 decreased, and Z12 increased slightly (F = 2.869 ∼ 5.549, P = 0.001 ∼ 0.042). Z5 and Z6 remained decreased at 3 days after discontinued use, but Z9 and Z10 continued to increase and Z12 returned to levels prior to RGP use (P > 0.05). At 2 weeks after discontinued use, all aberrations were not significantly different from the values prior to use (P > 0.05). The

Challenges estimating the return period of extreme floods for reinsurance applications

Science.gov (United States)

Raven, Emma; Busby, Kathryn; Liu, Ye

2013-04-01

Mapping and modelling extreme natural events is fundamental within the insurance and reinsurance industry for assessing risk. For example, insurers might use a 1 in 100-year flood hazard map to set the annual premium of a property, whilst a reinsurer might assess the national scale loss associated with the 1 in 200-year return period for capital and regulatory requirements. Using examples from a range of international flood projects, we focus on exploring how to define what the n-year flood looks like for predictive uses in re/insurance applications, whilst considering challenges posed by short historical flow records and the spatial and temporal complexities of flood. First, we shall explore the use of extreme value theory (EVT) statistics for extrapolating data beyond the range of observations in a marginal analysis. In particular, we discuss how to estimate the return period of historical flood events and explore the impact that a range of statistical decisions have on these estimates. Decisions include: (1) selecting which distribution type to apply (e.g. generalised Pareto distribution (GPD) vs. generalised extreme value distribution (GEV)); (2) if former, the choice of the threshold above which the GPD is fitted to the data; and (3) the necessity to perform a cluster analysis to group flow peaks to temporally represent individual flood events. Second, we summarise a specialised multivariate extreme value model, which combines the marginal analysis above with dependence modelling to generate industry standard event sets containing thousands of simulated, equi-probable floods across a region/country. These events represent the typical range of anticipated flooding across a region and can be used to estimate the largest or most widespread events that are expected to occur. Finally, we summarise how a reinsurance catastrophe model combines the event set with detailed flood hazard maps to estimate the financial cost of floods; both the full event set and also

Contact dermatitis and patch testing for the allergist.

Science.gov (United States)

Fonacier, Luz; Noor, Irum

2018-03-06

Contact dermatitis (CD) is a common disease seen by allergists. Although underutilized, patch testing (PT) remains the gold standard in the diagnosis of allergic CD. It is not difficult to perform, however, the interpretation of the PT, proper classification of the results and determination of their relevance, need an appropriate level of expertise. The objective of this article is to provide a review of CD and its key allergens and provide updates and recommendations for the practicing allergist. Through the use of various scientific search engines (e.g., PubMed and Medline) we reviewed literature on CD, PT, key allergens, occupational dermatitis and treatment. Studies on CD, important allergens, and PT were considered. Contact induced dermatitis may be due to allergic CD, irritant CD, systemic CD, contact urticaria and protein CD. Key allergens include metals (nickel, gold), topical medicaments (topical corticosteroids), and cosmetics and personal care products (fragrances and preservatives such as methyl- and methylchloro-isothiazolinone). Present relevance of a positive PT is the combination of definite, probable, and possible relevance and should be correlated with the patient's history and physical examination. Treatment of allergic CD includes identification of relevant allergens, patient education, avoidance and provision of alternative products the patient can use. CD is a common inflammatory skin disease and should be suspected in patients presenting acute, subacute or chronic dermatitis. The gold standard for diagnosing allergic CD is PT. This article provides practical recommendations for the diagnosis and management of CD commonly seen by the allergist in their practice. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Finnish Archaeologists’ Contacts with the Baltic Countries during the Second World War

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Timo Salminen

2015-10-01

Full Text Available Finnish archaeologists, especially Aarne Michaël Tallgren, had established contacts with their colleagues in the Baltic countries before the Second World War. In the summer of 1939, the world situation became a dominant theme in letters between archaeologists. The outbreak of war in Europe and the military base negotiations in Moscow evoked increasing concern. After the Soviet attack on Finland, only a few Finnish and Baltic archaeologists stayed in contact, but communications revived quickly after the Finnish-Soviet peace treaty of 1940. Estonian archaeologist Harri Moora saw the trials of war as a punishment for forgetting all spiritual values in previous years. The Soviet occupation of the Baltic countries in 1940 broke all contacts for longer than a year. After Germany had occupied the Baltic countries in 1941 and was allied with Finland in war against the Soviet Union, connections could be resumed to some extent. Tallgren, together with the Swedish State Antiquarian Sigurd Curman, now started planning the evacuation of children from Estonia to Sweden. In 1942, scholarly discussion returned to the correspondence, although only on a practical level, but already in early 1943 all correspondence became impossible. At the same time, Finnish archaeologists were in contact with Baltic refugees, especially Francis Balodis from Latvia. There were also Scandinavian and British archaeologists with whom Finnish researchers exchanged information about colleagues in the Baltic countries. The communications mainly focused on three things: getting and spreading information regarding the current situation, offering both practical help and psychological support to colleagues in the Baltic countries, and attempting to re-establish the exchange of ideas within the scholarly community.

Quantum processes: probability fluxes, transition probabilities in unit time and vacuum vibrations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oleinik, V.P.; Arepjev, Ju D.

1989-01-01

Transition probabilities in unit time and probability fluxes are compared in studying the elementary quantum processes -the decay of a bound state under the action of time-varying and constant electric fields. It is shown that the difference between these quantities may be considerable, and so the use of transition probabilities W instead of probability fluxes Π, in calculating the particle fluxes, may lead to serious errors. The quantity W represents the rate of change with time of the population of the energy levels relating partly to the real states and partly to the virtual ones, and it cannot be directly measured in experiment. The vacuum background is shown to be continuously distorted when a perturbation acts on a system. Because of this the viewpoint of an observer on the physical properties of real particles continuously varies with time. This fact is not taken into consideration in the conventional theory of quantum transitions based on using the notion of probability amplitude. As a result, the probability amplitudes lose their physical meaning. All the physical information on quantum dynamics of a system is contained in the mean values of physical quantities. The existence of considerable differences between the quantities W and Π permits one in principle to make a choice of the correct theory of quantum transitions on the basis of experimental data. (author)

Precipitation intensity probability distribution modelling for hydrological and construction design purposes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koshinchanov, Georgy; Dimitrov, Dobri

2008-01-01

The characteristics of rainfall intensity are important for many purposes, including design of sewage and drainage systems, tuning flood warning procedures, etc. Those estimates are usually statistical estimates of the intensity of precipitation realized for certain period of time (e.g. 5, 10 min., etc) with different return period (e.g. 20, 100 years, etc). The traditional approach in evaluating the mentioned precipitation intensities is to process the pluviometer's records and fit probability distribution to samples of intensities valid for certain locations ore regions. Those estimates further become part of the state regulations to be used for various economic activities. Two problems occur using the mentioned approach: 1. Due to various factors the climate conditions are changed and the precipitation intensity estimates need regular update; 2. As far as the extremes of the probability distribution are of particular importance for the practice, the methodology of the distribution fitting needs specific attention to those parts of the distribution. The aim of this paper is to make review of the existing methodologies for processing the intensive rainfalls and to refresh some of the statistical estimates for the studied areas. The methodologies used in Bulgaria for analyzing the intensive rainfalls and produce relevant statistical estimates: - The method of the maximum intensity, used in the National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology to process and decode the pluviometer's records, followed by distribution fitting for each precipitation duration period; - As the above, but with separate modeling of probability distribution for the middle and high probability quantiles. - Method is similar to the first one, but with a threshold of 0,36 mm/min of intensity; - Another method proposed by the Russian hydrologist G. A. Aleksiev for regionalization of estimates over some territory, improved and adapted by S. Gerasimov for Bulgaria; - Next method is considering only

Evaluation of the return rate of volunteer blood donors

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adriana de Fátima Lourençon

2011-06-01

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: To convert first-time blood donors into regular volunteer donors is a challenge to transfusion services. OBJECTIVES: This study aims to estimate the return rate of first time donors of the Ribeirão Preto Blood Center and of other blood centers in its coverage region. METHODS: The histories of 115,553 volunteer donors between 1996 and 2005 were analyzed. Statistical analysis was based on a parametric long-term survival model that allows an estimation of the proportion of donors who never return for further donations. RESULTS: Only 40% of individuals return within one year after the first donation and 53% return within two years. It is estimated that 30% never return to donate. Higher return rates were observed among Black donors. No significant difference was found in non-return rates regarding gender, blood type, Rh blood group and blood collection unit. CONCLUSIONS: The low percentage of first-time donors who return for further blood donation reinforces the need for marketing actions and strategies aimed at increasing the return rates.

Return migration as failure or success? : The determinants of return migration intentions among Moroccan migrants in Europe

NARCIS (Netherlands)

de Haas, H.; Fokkema, T.; Fihri, M.F.

2015-01-01

Different migration theories generate competing hypotheses with regard to determinants of return migration. While neoclassical migration theory associates migration to the failure to integrate at the destination, the new economics of labour migration sees return migration as the logical stage after

ACL Return to Sport Guidelines and Criteria.

Science.gov (United States)

Davies, George J; McCarty, Eric; Provencher, Matthew; Manske, Robert C

2017-09-01

Because of the epidemiological incidence of anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injuries, the high reinjury rates that occur when returning back to sports, the actual number of patients that return to the same premorbid level of competition, the high incidence of osteoarthritis at 5-10-year follow-ups, and the effects on the long-term health of the knee and the quality of life for the patient, individualizing the return to sports after ACL reconstruction (ACL-R) is critical. However, one of the challenging but unsolved dilemmas is what criteria and clinical decision making should be used to return an athlete back to sports following an ACL-R. This article describes an example of a functional testing algorithm (FTA) as one method for clinical decision making based on quantitative and qualitative testing and assessment utilized to make informed decisions to return an athlete to their sports safely and without compromised performance. The methods were a review of the best current evidence to support a FTA. In order to evaluate all the complicated domains of the clinical decision making for individualizing the return to sports after ACL-R, numerous assessments need to be performed including the biopsychosocial concepts, impairment testing, strength and power testing, functional testing, and patient-reported outcomes (PROs). The optimum criteria to use for individualizing the return to sports after ACL-R remain elusive. However, since this decision needs to be made on a regular basis with the safety and performance factors of the patient involved, this FTA provides one method of quantitatively and qualitatively making the decisions. Admittedly, there is no predictive validity of this system, but it does provide practical guidelines to facilitate the clinical decision making process for return to sports. The clinical decision to return an athlete back into competition has significant implications ranging from the safety of the athlete, to performance factors and actual

Global Variance Risk Premium and Forex Return Predictability

OpenAIRE

Aloosh, Arash

2014-01-01

In a long-run risk model with stochastic volatility and frictionless markets, I express expected forex returns as a function of consumption growth variances and stock variance risk premiums (VRPs)—the difference between the risk-neutral and statistical expectations of market return variation. This provides a motivation for using the forward-looking information available in stock market volatility indices to predict forex returns. Empirically, I find that stock VRPs predict forex returns at a ...

Decreased Time to Return to Work Using Robotic-Assisted Unicompartmental Knee Arthroplasty Compared to Conventional Techniques.

Science.gov (United States)

Jinnah, Alexander H; Augart, Marco A; Lara, Daniel L; Jinnah, Riyaz H; Poehling, Gary G; Gwam, Chukwuweike U; Plate, Johannes F

2018-06-01

Unicompartmental knee arthroplasty (UKA) is a commonly used procedure for patients suffering from debilitating unicompartmental knee arthritis. For UKA recipients, robotic-assisted surgery has served as an aid in improving surgical accuracy and precision. While studies exist detailing outcomes of robotic UKA, to our knowledge, there are no studies assessing time to return to work using robotic-assisted UKA. Thus, the purpose of this study was to prospectively assess the time to return to work and to achieve the level of work activity following robotic-assisted UKA to create recommendations for patients preoperatively. We hypothesized that the return to work time would be shorter for robotic-assisted UKAs compared with TKAs and manual UKAs, due to more accurate ligament balancing and precise implementation of the operative plan. Thirty consecutive patients scheduled to undergo a robotic-assisted UKA at an academic teaching hospital were prospectively enrolled in the study. Inclusion criteria included employment at the time of surgery, with the intent on returning to the same occupation following surgery and having end-stage knee degenerative joint disease (DJD) limited to the medial compartment. Patients were contacted via email, letter, or phone at two, four, six, and 12 weeks following surgery until they returned to work. The Baecke physical activity questionnaire (BQ) was administered to assess patients' level of activity at work pre- and postoperatively. Statistical analysis was performed using SAS Enterprise Guide (SAS Institute Inc., Cary, North Carolina) and Excel® (Microsoft Corporation, Redmond, Washington). Descriptive statistics were calculated to assess the demographics of the patient population. Boxplots were generated using an Excel® spreadsheet to visualize the BQ scores and a two-tailed t-test was used to assess for differences between pre- and postoperative scores with alpha 0.05. The mean time to return to work was 6.4 weeks (SD=3.4, range 2

Better understanding flow-restricted environments from hideout return analyses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ollar, Ph.; Viricel-Honorez, L.

1998-01-01

Understanding and controlling the chemical phenomena in flow-restricted areas of the secondary side of steam generators (SG) is a key point in fighting against corrosion (IGA) in these areas. Hence, more than 150 hideout returns from French plants are used to assess the chemical environment in flow-restricted areas. The influence of several parameters such as tube support plates design, SG blowdown flowrate and temperature at the end of hideout returns, on returned weights and on flow-restricted environments predicted by modelling are examined. A correlation between different operating and returned chemistry indexes (molar ratios), and IGA is sought: no link is found between IGA and Na/Cl molar ratio at the beginning of hideout returns. However, as IGA extends, the returned weights of sodium and chloride seem to decrease, suggesting a greater hideout and a lower hideout return efficiency, perhaps due to SG fouling, and/or a smaller hideout/hideout return thanks to an improved operating chemistry. Using the pH computed from hideout return data as an index for the presence of IGA is also studied: no correlation is found between the two. Improving plants chemistry is finally proposed, based on an optimization of hideout returns. (authors)

Contact with turf algae alters the coral microbiome: contact versus systemic impacts

Science.gov (United States)

Pratte, Zoe A.; Longo, Guilherme O.; Burns, Andrew S.; Hay, Mark E.; Stewart, Frank J.

2018-03-01

Coral reefs are degrading to algae-dominated reefs worldwide, with alterations of coral microbiomes commonly co-occurring with reef demise. The severe thermal anomaly during the 2016 El Niño event in the South Pacific killed many corals and stressed others. We examined the microbiome of turf algae and of the coral Porites sp. in contact with turf during this thermal event to investigate algal turf effects on the coral microbiome during a period of environmental stress. The microbial composition of turf did not differ between coral-contacted and non-contacted turfs. However, microbiomes of corals in direct contact with turf were similar to those of the turf microbiome, but differed significantly from coral portions 5 cm from the point of turf/coral contact and from portions of the coral that looked most healthy, regardless of location. Although the majority of significant differences occurred in coral samples at the point of contact, a small subset of microbial taxa was enriched in coral tissues taken 5 cm from turf contact compared to all other sample types, including samples from areas of the coral that appeared most healthy. These results suggest that the coral microbiome is susceptible to colonization by microbes from turf, but not vice versa. Results also suggest that algal contact elicits a subtle shift in the coral microbiome just beyond the contact site. The combination of turf microbiome stability and coral microbiome vulnerability at areas of contact may contribute to the continued decline in coral cover and increase in algal cover associated with coral-algae phase shifts.

Propensity, Probability, and Quantum Theory

Science.gov (United States)

Ballentine, Leslie E.

2016-08-01

Quantum mechanics and probability theory share one peculiarity. Both have well established mathematical formalisms, yet both are subject to controversy about the meaning and interpretation of their basic concepts. Since probability plays a fundamental role in QM, the conceptual problems of one theory can affect the other. We first classify the interpretations of probability into three major classes: (a) inferential probability, (b) ensemble probability, and (c) propensity. Class (a) is the basis of inductive logic; (b) deals with the frequencies of events in repeatable experiments; (c) describes a form of causality that is weaker than determinism. An important, but neglected, paper by P. Humphreys demonstrated that propensity must differ mathematically, as well as conceptually, from probability, but he did not develop a theory of propensity. Such a theory is developed in this paper. Propensity theory shares many, but not all, of the axioms of probability theory. As a consequence, propensity supports the Law of Large Numbers from probability theory, but does not support Bayes theorem. Although there are particular problems within QM to which any of the classes of probability may be applied, it is argued that the intrinsic quantum probabilities (calculated from a state vector or density matrix) are most naturally interpreted as quantum propensities. This does not alter the familiar statistical interpretation of QM. But the interpretation of quantum states as representing knowledge is untenable. Examples show that a density matrix fails to represent knowledge.

Patients with multiple contact allergies

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Carlsen, Berit Christina; Andersen, Klaus Ejner; Menné, Torkil

2008-01-01

Patients with multiple contact allergies, also referred to as polysensitized, are more frequent than predicted from prevalence of single sensitivities. The understanding of why some people develop multiple contact allergies, and characterization of patients with multiple contact allergies...... of developing multiple contact allergies. Evidence of allergen clusters among polysensitized individuals is also reviewed. The literature supports the idea that patients with multiple contact allergies constitute a special entity within the field of contact allergy. There is no generally accepted definition...... of patients with multiple contact allergies. We suggest that contact allergy to 3 or more allergens are defined as multiple contact allergies....

Families of returned defence force personnel: a changing landscape of challenges.

Science.gov (United States)

Berle, David; Steel, Zachary

2015-08-01

This paper aims to identify the key challenges experienced by the families of defence force personnel following deployment. We undertook a selective review of four post-deployment challenges to the families of defence force personnel: (1) changes to relationships; (2) changes to family member roles and responsibilities; (3) adjustment of children and parenting challenges; and (4) anger, family conflict and violence. Emerging issues in the area of post-deployment adjustment are also discussed. Empirical studies of post-deployment family adjustment are lacking. Each of the reviewed challenges can contribute to psychological difficulties and precipitate contact with mental health services. The challenges faced by defence force personnel when returning from deployment arise within a family context. Clinicians should thoroughly assess these factors in families following deployment, but also recognise family strengths and resilience to these challenges. © The Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Psychiatrists 2015.

The Returns to Entrepreneurship

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Van Praag, Mirjam; Raknerud, Arvid

Empirical studies show low pecuniary returns of switching from wage employment to entrepreneurship. We reconsider the pecuniary gains of this switching by employing a two-stage procedure, where the randomness in the timing of inheritance transfers is used as an exclusion restriction to identify...... causal effects. The model is estimated on data covering the whole Norwegian population of individuals matched to the entire population of firms established in the period 2002-2011. The results indicate that the average returns to entrepreneurship are significantly negative for individuals entering...... entrepreneurship through self-employment and modest, but significantly positive, for incorporated startups....

Relationship between the public's belief in recovery, level of mental illness stigma, and previous contact.

Science.gov (United States)

Barczyk, Amanda N

2015-01-01

Disbelief exits that individuals who have a mental health condition are able to recover and fully function in life. This study analyzed 1,437 adults from the 2006 General Social Survey. Structural equation modeling (1) examined the relationship between respondents' level of prejudicial attitudes and social distance (i.e., stigma) toward individuals who have a mental health condition and their belief in the potential of recovery (2) tested whether previous contact with an individual who received treatment was a mediator. Findings indicated that the belief in recovery led to lower levels of social distance. Prejudicial attitudes were found to be a predictor of one's level of social distance. Previous contact was not a mediator however; males, minorities and those with less education were less likely to have had previous contact. Results indicated a need to emphasize the probability of recovering from a mental health condition when developing target-specific stigma reducing strategies.

Contact allergy to epoxy (meth)acrylates.

Science.gov (United States)

Aalto-Korte, Kristiina; Jungewelter, Soile; Henriks-Eckerman, Maj-Len; Kuuliala, Outi; Jolanki, Riitta

2009-07-01

Contact allergy to epoxy (meth)acrylates, 2,2-bis[4-(2-hydroxy-3-methacryloxypropoxy) phenyl]propane (bis-GMA), 2,2-bis[4-(2-hydroxy-3-acryloxypropoxy)phenyl]-propane (bis-GA), 2,2-bis[4-(methacryl-oxyethoxy)phenyl] propane (bis-EMA), 2,2-bis[4-(methacryloxy)phenyl]-propane (bis-MA), and glycidyl methacrylate (GMA) is often manifested together with contact allergy to diglycidyl ether of bisphenol A (DGEBA) epoxy resin. To analyse patterns of concomitant allergic reactions to the five epoxy (meth)acrylates in relation to exposure. We reviewed the 1994-2008 patch test files at the Finnish Institute of Occupational Health (FIOH) for reactions to the five epoxy (meth)acrylates, and examined the patients' medical records for exposure. Twenty-four patients had an allergic reaction to at least one of the studied epoxy (meth)acrylates, but specific exposure was found only in five patients: two bis-GMA allergies from dental products, two bis-GA allergies from UV-curable printing inks, and one bis-GA allergy from an anaerobic glue. Only 25% of the patients were negative to DGEBA epoxy resin. The great majority of allergic patch test reactions to bis-GMA, bis-GA, GMA and bis-EMA were not associated with specific exposure, and cross-allergy to DGEBA epoxy resin remained a probable explanation. However, independent reactions to bis-GA indicated specific exposure. Anaerobic sealants may induce sensitization not only to aliphatic (meth)acrylates but also to aromatic bis-GA.

Communication and collaboration among return-to-work stakeholders.

Science.gov (United States)

Russell, Elizabeth; Kosny, Agnieszka

2018-05-17

Workers who are injured or become ill on the job are best able to return-to-work when stakeholders involved in their case collaborate and communicate. This study examined health care providers' and case managers' engagement in rehabilitation and return-to-work following workplace injury or illness. In-depth interviews were conducted with 97 health care providers and 34 case managers in four Canadian provinces about their experiences facilitating rehabilitation and return-to-work, and interacting with system stakeholders. A qualitative thematic content analysis demonstrated two key findings. Firstly, stakeholders were challenged to collaborate as a result of: barriers to interdisciplinary and cross-professional communication; philosophical differences about the timing and appropriateness of return-to-work; and confusion among health care providers about the workers' compensation system. Secondly, these challenges adversely affected the co-ordination of patient care, and consequentially, injured workers often became information conduits, and effective and timely treatment and return-to-work was sometimes negatively impacted. Communication challenges between health care providers and case managers may negatively impact patient care and alienate treating health care providers. Discussion about role clarification, the appropriateness of early return-to-work, how paperwork shapes health care providers' role expectations, and strengthened inter-professional communication are considered. Implications for Rehabilitation Administrative and conceptual barriers in workers' compensation systems challenge collaboration and communication between health care providers and case managers. Injured workers may become conduits of incorrect information, resulting in adversarial relationships, overturned health care providers' recommendations, and their disengagement from rehabilitation and return-to-work. Stakeholders should clarify the role of health care providers during

Speciation and fate of copper in sewage treatment works with and without tertiary treatment: the effect of return flows.

Science.gov (United States)

Innaa, D; Lester, J N; Scrimshawb, M D; Cartmell, E

2014-01-01

The removal of metals from wastewaters is becoming an important issue, with new environmental quality standards putting increased regulatory pressure on operators of sewage treatment works. The use of additional processes (tertiary treatment) following two-stage biological treatment is frequently seen as a way of improving effluent quality for nutrients and suspended solids, and this study investigates the impact of how back washes from these tertiary processes may impact the removal of copper during primary sedimentation. Seven sites were studied, three conventional two-stage biological treatment, and four with tertiary processes. It was apparent that fluxes of copper in traditional return flows made a significant contribution to the load to the primary treatment tanks, and that tanks. These return flows had an impact on copper removal in the primary tanks, probably due to their aerobic nature. Returning such aerobic back wash flows to the main process stream after primary treatment may therefore be worth consideration. The opportunity to treat consolidated liquor and sludge.flows in side-stream processes to remove toxic elements, as they are relatively concentrated, low volume flow streams, should also be evaluated.

Choice Probability Generating Functions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel L; Bierlaire, Michel

This paper considers discrete choice, with choice probabilities coming from maximization of preferences from a random utility field perturbed by additive location shifters (ARUM). Any ARUM can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) whose gradient gives the choice...... probabilities, and every CPGF is consistent with an ARUM. We relate CPGF to multivariate extreme value distributions, and review and extend methods for constructing CPGF for applications....

26 CFR 301.6103(j)(1)-1 - Disclosures of return information reflected on returns to officers and employees of the...

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... related activities. 301.6103(j)(1)-1 Section 301.6103(j)(1)-1 Internal Revenue INTERNAL REVENUE SERVICE... and Returns Returns and Records § 301.6103(j)(1)-1 Disclosures of return information reflected on... related activities. (a) General rule. Pursuant to the provisions of section 6103(j)(1) of the Internal...

Predictability of Returns and Cash Flows

OpenAIRE

Ralph S.J. Koijen; Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh

2010-01-01

We review the literature on return and cash-flow growth predictability from the perspective of the present-value identity. We focus predominantly on recent work. Our emphasis is on U.S. aggregate stock return predictability, but we also discuss evidence from other asset classes and countries.

Return on Investment from Biochar Application

Science.gov (United States)

Current literature has yet to fully address the cost of biochar application or the return on investment to the grower. The objectives were to identify possible on-farm spreader equipment, spreader capacity, application expenses, and rate of return needed for growers to apply biochar economically. Bi...

Prediction and probability in sciences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Klein, E.; Sacquin, Y.

1998-01-01

This book reports the 7 presentations made at the third meeting 'physics and fundamental questions' whose theme was probability and prediction. The concept of probability that was invented to apprehend random phenomena has become an important branch of mathematics and its application range spreads from radioactivity to species evolution via cosmology or the management of very weak risks. The notion of probability is the basis of quantum mechanics and then is bound to the very nature of matter. The 7 topics are: - radioactivity and probability, - statistical and quantum fluctuations, - quantum mechanics as a generalized probability theory, - probability and the irrational efficiency of mathematics, - can we foresee the future of the universe?, - chance, eventuality and necessity in biology, - how to manage weak risks? (A.C.)

Experimental and numerical investigation of contact-area-limited doping for top-contact pentacene thin-film transistors with Schottky contact.

Science.gov (United States)

Noda, Kei; Wada, Yasuo; Toyabe, Toru

2015-10-28

Effects of contact-area-limited doping for pentacene thin-film transistors with a bottom-gate, top-contact configuration were investigated. The increase in the drain current and the effective field-effect mobility was achieved by preparing hole-doped layers underneath the gold contact electrodes by coevaporation of pentacene and 2,3,5,6-tetrafluoro-7,7,8,8-tetracyanoquinodimethane (F4TCNQ), confirmed by using a thin-film organic transistor advanced simulator (TOTAS) incorporating Schottky contact with a thermionic field emission (TFE) model. Although the simulated electrical characteristics fit the experimental results well only in the linear regime of the transistor operation, the barrier height for hole injection and the gate-voltage-dependent hole mobility in the pentacene transistors were evaluated with the aid of the device simulation. This experimental data analysis with the simulation indicates that the highly-doped semiconducting layers prepared in the contact regions can enhance the charge carrier injection into the active semiconductor layer and concurrent trap filling in the transistor channel, caused by the mitigation of a Schottky energy barrier. This study suggests that both the contact-area-limited doping and the device simulation dealing with Schottky contact are indispensable in designing and developing high-performance organic thin-film transistors.

Role of Firing Temperature, Sheet Resistance, and Contact Area in Contact Formation on Screen-Printed Metal Contact of Silicon Solar Cell

Science.gov (United States)

Ahmad, Samir Mahmmod; Leong, Cheow Siu; Sopian, K.; Zaidi, Saleem H.

2018-03-01

Formation of an Ohmic contact requires a suitable firing temperature, appropriate doping profile, and contact dimensions within resolution limits of the screen-printing process. In this study, the role of the peak firing temperature in standard rapid thermal annealing (RTA) six-zone conveyor belt furnace (CBF) and two inexpensive alternate RTA systems [a custom-designed, three-zone, 5″-diameter quartz tube furnace (QTF) and a tabletop, 3″-diameter rapid thermal processing (RTP)] has been investigated. In addition, the role of sheet resistance and contact area in achieving low-resistance ohmic contacts has been examined. Electrical measurements of ohmic contacts between silver paste/ n +-emitter layer with varying sheet resistances and aluminum paste/ p-doped wafer were carried out in transmission line method configuration. Experimental measurements of the contact resistivity ( ρ c) exhibited the lowest values for CBF at 0.14 mΩ cm2 for Ag and 100 mΩ cm2 for Al at a peak firing temperature of 870°C. For the QTF configuration, lowest measured contact resistivities were 3.1 mΩ cm2 for Ag and 74.1 mΩ cm2 for Al at a peak firing temperature of 925°C. Finally, for the RTP configuration, lowest measured contact resistivities were 1.2 mΩ cm2 for Ag and 68.5 mΩ cm2 for Al at a peak firing temperature of 780°C. The measured contact resistivity exhibits strong linear dependence on sheet resistance. The contact resistivity for Ag decreases with contact area, while for Al the opposite behavior is observed.

An approximate JKR solution for a general contact, including rough contacts

Science.gov (United States)

Ciavarella, M.

2018-05-01

In the present note, we suggest a simple closed form approximate solution to the adhesive contact problem under the so-called JKR regime. The derivation is based on generalizing the original JKR energetic derivation assuming calculation of the strain energy in adhesiveless contact, and unloading at constant contact area. The underlying assumption is that the contact area distributions are the same as under adhesiveless conditions (for an appropriately increased normal load), so that in general the stress intensity factors will not be exactly equal at all contact edges. The solution is simply that the indentation is δ =δ1 -√{ 2 wA‧ /P″ } where w is surface energy, δ1 is the adhesiveless indentation, A‧ is the first derivative of contact area and P‧‧ the second derivative of the load with respect to δ1. The solution only requires macroscopic quantities, and not very elaborate local distributions, and is exact in many configurations like axisymmetric contacts, but also sinusoidal waves contact and correctly predicts some features of an ideal asperity model used as a test case and not as a real description of a rough contact problem. The solution permits therefore an estimate of the full solution for elastic rough solids with Gaussian multiple scales of roughness, which so far was lacking, using known adhesiveless simple results. The result turns out to depend only on rms amplitude and slopes of the surface, and as in the fractal limit, slopes would grow without limit, tends to the adhesiveless result - although in this limit the JKR model is inappropriate. The solution would also go to adhesiveless result for large rms amplitude of roughness hrms, irrespective of the small scale details, and in agreement with common sense, well known experiments and previous models by the author.

HTSC-Josephson step contacts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Herrmann, K.

1994-03-01

In this work the properties of josephson step contacts are investigated. After a short introduction into Josephson step contacts the structure, properties and the Josphson contacts of YBa 2 Cu 3 O 7-x high-T c superconductors is presented. The fabrication of HTSC step contacts and the microstructure is discussed. The electric properties of these contacts are measured together with the Josephson emission and the magnetic field dependence. The temperature dependence of the stationary transport properties is given. (WL)

Motivational goals, group identifications, and psychosocial adjustment of returning migrants: The case of Jews returning to Russia.

Science.gov (United States)

Tartakovsky, Eugene; Patrakov, Eduard; Nikulina, Marina

2017-12-01

The present study investigated the motivational goals, group identifications, and psychosocial adjustment of Jews who returned to Russia after emigrating from the republics of the Former Soviet Union to different countries (n = 151). To gain a deeper understanding of these returning migrants, their traits were compared with those of Jews living in Russia who did not emigrate (n = 935). Compared to locals, returnees reported a higher preference for the openness to change and self-enhancement values and a lower preference for the conservation values; there was no difference in the self-transcendence values. Returning migrants had a relatively weak affiliation with the home country: they had a weaker identification with the home country than with the country of emigration, their identification with Russians was weaker than that among Jews who did not emigrate from Russia, and their intention to emigrate (again) from Russia was greater than that among locals. However, the Jewish identification of returning migrants was similar to that of locals. The adjustment of returning migrants varied across different dimensions: their economic adjustment was better than that of locals; however, the interpersonal adjustment of returnees was less successful than among locals. © 2016 International Union of Psychological Science.

Critical points for spread-out self-avoiding walk, percolation and the contact process above the upper critical dimensions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hofstad, van der R.W.; Sakai, A.

2005-01-01

We consider self-avoiding walk and percolation in d, oriented percolation in d×+, and the contact process in d, with p D(·) being the coupling function whose range is proportional to L. For percolation, for example, each bond is independently occupied with probability p D(y–x). The above models are

Ocular surface displacement with and without contact lenses during non-contact tonometry.

Science.gov (United States)

Rimayanti, Ulfah; Kiuchi, Yoshiaki; Uemura, Shohei; Takenaka, Joji; Mochizuki, Hideki; Kaneko, Makoto

2014-01-01

To evaluate the displacement of the central ocular surface during non-contact tonometry with and without soft contact lenses and determine the factors associated with the displacement of the central ocular surface and intraocular pressure (IOP) reading changes caused by wearing soft contact lenses (CLs). One eye each in 21 subjects was studied. The cornea was photographed using a high-speed camera at 5,000 frames/sec during non-contact tonometry without contact lenses (NCL), with -5.0 diopters (D), -0.5 D and +5.0 D CL. The displacement of the ocular surface and the factors affecting displacement at the IOP reading and maximum displacement time were investigated. The IOP readings while wearing +5 D CL were significantly higher than those obtained while wearing -5 D CL. The ocular surface displacement between +5 D CL and other groups were significantly different. A significant positive correlation was found between the ocular surface displacement of subjects at the IOP reading time and the IOP obtained with the non-contact tonometer. A significant negative correlation was found between the ocular surface curvature and the IOP obtained using the non-contact tonometer. The radius of curvature of the ocular surface affected the displacement during the IOP reading and maximum displacement time. Our results indicate that soft contact lens use changes the ocular surface behavior and IOP readings during non-contact tonometry. The radius of curvature of the eye affects the ocular surface displacement and IOP readings in this situation.

Economic and accounting rates of return

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Feenstra, D.W.; Wang, H.

2000-01-01

The rate of return on invested capital is a central concept in financial analysis. The purpose of calculating the rate of return on investment in general is to measure the financial performance, to assess the desirability of a project and to make decisions on the valuation of firms. Financial

Parasitic diseases in the returning traveller

African Journals Online (AJOL)

2009-06-11

Jun 11, 2009 ... exception is infection with schistosomiasis after leisure activities in infested freshwater. (the water sports enthusiast returning from a sojourn on Lake Malawi .... are harbouring a 'blind passenger' from abroad. However, long-term travellers, both private or business, should be screened on return. A thorough ...

The quantum probability calculus

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jauch, J.M.

1976-01-01

The Wigner anomaly (1932) for the joint distribution of noncompatible observables is an indication that the classical probability calculus is not applicable for quantum probabilities. It should, therefore, be replaced by another, more general calculus, which is specifically adapted to quantal systems. In this article this calculus is exhibited and its mathematical axioms and the definitions of the basic concepts such as probability field, random variable, and expectation values are given. (B.R.H)

Sealed Planetary Return Canister (SPRC), Phase II

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Sample return missions have primary importance in future planetary missions. A basic requirement is that samples be returned in pristine, uncontaminated condition,...

Analyzing the returns of the first transaction satisfaction on intention to purchase and willingness to pay: Evidence for new food products

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tudoran, Ana Alina; Olsen, Svein Ottar

2017-01-01

The present study sheds light on the kind of relationships that link first transaction consumer satisfaction (CS), purchase intention, and willingness to pay for new food products. The article presents a comparative evaluation of linear and nonlinear quadratic and cubic specifications used...... relationship is characterized by a nonlinear functional form with increasing marginal returns, while the CS–willingness to pay relationship is defined by a linear functional form with constant marginal returns. The study contributes to the existing body of knowledge that so far has mainly described...... the relationship between cumulative CS and profit chain outcomes in the context of established products (brands). We discuss the implications for managers responsible for launching new food products and give hints on allocating resources to the most probable customers. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd....

Predictors of business return in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nina S N Lam

Full Text Available We analyzed the business reopening process in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina, which hit the region on August 29, 2005, to better understand what the major predictors were and how their impacts changed through time. A telephone survey of businesses in New Orleans was conducted in October 2007, 26 months after Hurricane Katrina. The data were analyzed using a modified spatial probit regression model to evaluate the importance of each predictor variable through time. The results suggest that the two most important reopening predictors throughout all time periods were the flood depth at the business location and business size as represented by its wages in a logarithmic form. Flood depth was a significant negative predictor and had the largest marginal effects on the reopening probabilities. Smaller businesses had lower reopening probabilities than larger ones. However, the nonlinear response of business size to the reopening probability suggests that recovery aid would be most effective for smaller businesses than for larger ones. The spatial spillovers effect was a significant positive predictor but only for the first nine months. The findings show clearly that flood protection is the overarching issue for New Orleans. A flood protection plan that reduces the vulnerability and length of flooding would be the first and foremost step to mitigate the negative effects from climate-related hazards and enable speedy recovery. The findings cast doubt on the current coastal protection efforts and add to the current debate of whether coastal Louisiana will be sustainable or too costly to protect from further land loss and flooding given the threat of sea-level rise. Finally, a plan to help small businesses to return would also be an effective strategy for recovery, and the temporal window of opportunity that generates the greatest impacts would be the first 6∼9 months after the disaster.

Predictors of business return in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina.

Science.gov (United States)

Lam, Nina S N; Arenas, Helbert; Pace, Kelley; LeSage, James; Campanella, Richard

2012-01-01

We analyzed the business reopening process in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina, which hit the region on August 29, 2005, to better understand what the major predictors were and how their impacts changed through time. A telephone survey of businesses in New Orleans was conducted in October 2007, 26 months after Hurricane Katrina. The data were analyzed using a modified spatial probit regression model to evaluate the importance of each predictor variable through time. The results suggest that the two most important reopening predictors throughout all time periods were the flood depth at the business location and business size as represented by its wages in a logarithmic form. Flood depth was a significant negative predictor and had the largest marginal effects on the reopening probabilities. Smaller businesses had lower reopening probabilities than larger ones. However, the nonlinear response of business size to the reopening probability suggests that recovery aid would be most effective for smaller businesses than for larger ones. The spatial spillovers effect was a significant positive predictor but only for the first nine months. The findings show clearly that flood protection is the overarching issue for New Orleans. A flood protection plan that reduces the vulnerability and length of flooding would be the first and foremost step to mitigate the negative effects from climate-related hazards and enable speedy recovery. The findings cast doubt on the current coastal protection efforts and add to the current debate of whether coastal Louisiana will be sustainable or too costly to protect from further land loss and flooding given the threat of sea-level rise. Finally, a plan to help small businesses to return would also be an effective strategy for recovery, and the temporal window of opportunity that generates the greatest impacts would be the first 6∼9 months after the disaster.

Improved protein structure reconstruction using secondary structures, contacts at higher distance thresholds, and non-contacts.

Science.gov (United States)

Adhikari, Badri; Cheng, Jianlin

2017-08-29

Residue-residue contacts are key features for accurate de novo protein structure prediction. For the optimal utilization of these predicted contacts in folding proteins accurately, it is important to study the challenges of reconstructing protein structures using true contacts. Because contact-guided protein modeling approach is valuable for predicting the folds of proteins that do not have structural templates, it is necessary for reconstruction studies to focus on hard-to-predict protein structures. Using a data set consisting of 496 structural domains released in recent CASP experiments and a dataset of 150 representative protein structures, in this work, we discuss three techniques to improve the reconstruction accuracy using true contacts - adding secondary structures, increasing contact distance thresholds, and adding non-contacts. We find that reconstruction using secondary structures and contacts can deliver accuracy higher than using full contact maps. Similarly, we demonstrate that non-contacts can improve reconstruction accuracy not only when the used non-contacts are true but also when they are predicted. On the dataset consisting of 150 proteins, we find that by simply using low ranked predicted contacts as non-contacts and adding them as additional restraints, can increase the reconstruction accuracy by 5% when the reconstructed models are evaluated using TM-score. Our findings suggest that secondary structures are invaluable companions of contacts for accurate reconstruction. Confirming some earlier findings, we also find that larger distance thresholds are useful for folding many protein structures which cannot be folded using the standard definition of contacts. Our findings also suggest that for more accurate reconstruction using predicted contacts it is useful to predict contacts at higher distance thresholds (beyond 8 Å) and predict non-contacts.

Product return management

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Shaharudin, Mohd Rizaimy; Govindan, Kannan; Zailani, Suhaiza

2017-01-01

The aim of this study is to examine the extent to which product returns motivate manufacturing firms to adopt closed-loop supply chain activities that influence the effectiveness of reverse supply chains. The hypotheses have been tested using data from a sample of 150 environmental management...... system ISO 14001 certified manufacturing firms in Malaysia through the census sampling approach. The results of the empirical test using LISREL Version 8.70 for the structural equation modeling support the fundamental explanation of the influence of the institutional forces towards the adoption of closed...... eventually impacts the firm's effectiveness in the reverse supply chain. The findings also help managers to understand the factors that can improve the outcome of the adoption of closed-loop supply chain activities by intensifying the extent of involvement in product returns, which provides a valuable...

Excluding joint probabilities from quantum theory

Science.gov (United States)

Allahverdyan, Armen E.; Danageozian, Arshag

2018-03-01

Quantum theory does not provide a unique definition for the joint probability of two noncommuting observables, which is the next important question after the Born's probability for a single observable. Instead, various definitions were suggested, e.g., via quasiprobabilities or via hidden-variable theories. After reviewing open issues of the joint probability, we relate it to quantum imprecise probabilities, which are noncontextual and are consistent with all constraints expected from a quantum probability. We study two noncommuting observables in a two-dimensional Hilbert space and show that there is no precise joint probability that applies for any quantum state and is consistent with imprecise probabilities. This contrasts with theorems by Bell and Kochen-Specker that exclude joint probabilities for more than two noncommuting observables, in Hilbert space with dimension larger than two. If measurement contexts are included into the definition, joint probabilities are not excluded anymore, but they are still constrained by imprecise probabilities.

Effect of implanted doses of N+-ions on the contact resistance of copper contacts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dubravec, B.; Kovac, P.; Lipka, F.; Padysak, M.

1997-01-01

The paper deals with the effect of implanted doses of N + ions on the contact resistance. Dependencies of the contact resistance versus contact force R c =f(F c ) and microhardness of implanted surfaces were measured for three implanted profiles. The influence of the aggressive environs on the contact resistance of implanted contact is given too

Work Status and Return to the Workforce after Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting and/or Heart Valve Surgery: A One-Year-Follow Up Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kirsten Fonager

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Background. Several characteristics appear to be important for estimating the likelihood of reentering the workforce after surgery. The aim of the present study was to describe work status in a two-year time period around the time of cardiac surgery and estimate the probability of returning to the workforce. Methods. We included 681 patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting and/or heart valve procedures from 2003 to 2007 in the North Denmark Region. We linked hospital data to data in the DREAM database which holds information of everyone receiving social benefits. Results. At the time of surgery 17.3% were allocated disability pension and 2.3% were allocated a permanent part-time benefit. Being unemployed one year before surgery reduced the likelihood of return to the workforce (RR=0.74 (0.60–0.92 whereas unemployment at the time of surgery had no impact on return to the workforce (RR=0.96 (0.78–1.18. Sickness absence before surgery reduced the likelihood of return to the workforce. Conclusion. This study found the work status before surgery to be associated with the likelihood of return to the workforce within one year after surgery. Before surgery one-fifth of the population either was allocated disability pension or received a permanent part-time benefit.

76 FR 17521 - Specified Tax Return Preparers Required To File Individual Income Tax Returns Using Magnetic Media

Science.gov (United States)

2011-03-30

... regulations reflect changes made to the law by the Worker, Homeownership, and Business Assistance Act of 2009... definition of a ``specified tax return preparer'' must electronically file Federal income tax returns that... of the Worker, Homeownership, and Business Assistance Act of 2009 (Pub. L. 111-92 (123 Stat. 2984...

Linear positivity and virtual probability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hartle, James B.

2004-01-01

We investigate the quantum theory of closed systems based on the linear positivity decoherence condition of Goldstein and Page. The objective of any quantum theory of a closed system, most generally the universe, is the prediction of probabilities for the individual members of sets of alternative coarse-grained histories of the system. Quantum interference between members of a set of alternative histories is an obstacle to assigning probabilities that are consistent with the rules of probability theory. A quantum theory of closed systems therefore requires two elements: (1) a condition specifying which sets of histories may be assigned probabilities and (2) a rule for those probabilities. The linear positivity condition of Goldstein and Page is the weakest of the general conditions proposed so far. Its general properties relating to exact probability sum rules, time neutrality, and conservation laws are explored. Its inconsistency with the usual notion of independent subsystems in quantum mechanics is reviewed. Its relation to the stronger condition of medium decoherence necessary for classicality is discussed. The linear positivity of histories in a number of simple model systems is investigated with the aim of exhibiting linearly positive sets of histories that are not decoherent. The utility of extending the notion of probability to include values outside the range of 0-1 is described. Alternatives with such virtual probabilities cannot be measured or recorded, but can be used in the intermediate steps of calculations of real probabilities. Extended probabilities give a simple and general way of formulating quantum theory. The various decoherence conditions are compared in terms of their utility for characterizing classicality and the role they might play in further generalizations of quantum mechanics

The pleasures of probability

CERN Document Server

Isaac, Richard

1995-01-01

The ideas of probability are all around us. Lotteries, casino gambling, the al­ most non-stop polling which seems to mold public policy more and more­ these are a few of the areas where principles of probability impinge in a direct way on the lives and fortunes of the general public. At a more re­ moved level there is modern science which uses probability and its offshoots like statistics and the theory of random processes to build mathematical descriptions of the real world. In fact, twentieth-century physics, in embrac­ ing quantum mechanics, has a world view that is at its core probabilistic in nature, contrary to the deterministic one of classical physics. In addition to all this muscular evidence of the importance of probability ideas it should also be said that probability can be lots of fun. It is a subject where you can start thinking about amusing, interesting, and often difficult problems with very little mathematical background. In this book, I wanted to introduce a reader with at least a fairl...

Electrical contacts principles and applications

CERN Document Server

Slade, Paul G

2013-01-01

Covering the theory, application, and testing of contact materials, Electrical Contacts: Principles and Applications, Second Edition introduces a thorough discussion on making electric contact and contact interface conduction; presents a general outline of, and measurement techniques for, important corrosion mechanisms; considers the results of contact wear when plug-in connections are made and broken; investigates the effect of thin noble metal plating on electronic connections; and relates crucial considerations for making high- and low-power contact joints. It examines contact use in switch

Stock returns and foreign investment in Brazil

OpenAIRE

Reis, Luciana; Meurer, Roberto; Da Silva, Sergio

2008-01-01

We examine the relationship between stock returns and foreign investment in Brazil, and find that the inflows of foreign investment boosted the returns from 1995 to 2005. There was a strong contemporaneous correlation, although not Granger-causality. Foreign investment along with the exchange rate, the influence of the world stock markets, and country risk can explain 73 percent of the changes that occurred in the stock returns over the period. We also find that positive feedback trading play...

INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP LEVEL AND RISK-ADJUSTED RETURN

OpenAIRE

Isaiah, Chioma; Li, Meng (Emma)

2017-01-01

This paper examines the relationship between the level of institutional ownership andrisk-adjusted return on stocks. We find a significant positive relationship between the level ofinstitutional ownership on a stock and its risk-adjusted return. This result holds both in the longrun and in shorter time periods. Our findings suggest that all things being equal, it is possible toobtain risk-adjusted return by going short on the stocks with low institutional ownership andgoing long on those with...

The effect of asymmetric information risk on returns of stocks traded on the BM&FBOVESPA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Leonardo Souza Siqueira

Full Text Available ABSTRACT This study sought to analyze information asymmetry in the Brazilian stock market and its relation with the returns required from portfolios through the metrics volume-synchronized probability of informed trading. To do this, the study used actual data from the transactions of 142 stocks on the Brazilian Securities, Commodities and Futures Exchange (BM&FBOVESPA, within the period from May 1, 2014, to May 31, 2016. The results point out a high flow toxicity level in the orders of these stocks. In segment analyses of the stock market listing, data suggest there is no clue that stocks from the theoretically more overt segments have a lower toxicity level of order flows. The justification for this finding lies on the negative correlation observed between the market value of stocks and the toxicity level of orders. To test the effect of asymmetric information risk on stock returns, a factor related to the toxicity level of orders was added to the three-, four-, and five-factor models. Through the GRS test, we observed that the combination of factors that optimize the explanation of returns of the portfolios created was the one taking advantage of the factors market, size, profitability, investment, and information risk. To test the robustness of these results, the Average F-test was used in data simulated by the bootstrap method, and similar estimates were obtained. It was observed that the factor related to the book-to-market index becomes redundant in the national scenario for the models tested. Also, it was found that the factor related to information risk works as a complement to the factor size and that its inclusion leads to an improved performance of the models, indicating a possible explanatory power of information risk on portfolio returns. Therefore, data suggest that information risk is priced in the Brazilian stock market.

76 FR 36996 - Extension of Time for Filing Returns

Science.gov (United States)

2011-06-24

... less time to complete accurate income tax returns and to provide timely information to the trust's... either chapter 7 or chapter 11 of Title 11 of the U.S. Code that is required to file an income tax return... estate or trust income tax return or failure to pay the amount shown as tax on the return. (g) Effective...

Probable Inference and Quantum Mechanics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grandy, W. T. Jr.

2009-01-01

In its current very successful interpretation the quantum theory is fundamentally statistical in nature. Although commonly viewed as a probability amplitude whose (complex) square is a probability, the wavefunction or state vector continues to defy consensus as to its exact meaning, primarily because it is not a physical observable. Rather than approach this problem directly, it is suggested that it is first necessary to clarify the precise role of probability theory in quantum mechanics, either as applied to, or as an intrinsic part of the quantum theory. When all is said and done the unsurprising conclusion is that quantum mechanics does not constitute a logic and probability unto itself, but adheres to the long-established rules of classical probability theory while providing a means within itself for calculating the relevant probabilities. In addition, the wavefunction is seen to be a description of the quantum state assigned by an observer based on definite information, such that the same state must be assigned by any other observer based on the same information, in much the same way that probabilities are assigned.

Psychophysics of the probability weighting function

Science.gov (United States)

Takahashi, Taiki

2011-03-01

A probability weighting function w(p) for an objective probability p in decision under risk plays a pivotal role in Kahneman-Tversky prospect theory. Although recent studies in econophysics and neuroeconomics widely utilized probability weighting functions, psychophysical foundations of the probability weighting functions have been unknown. Notably, a behavioral economist Prelec (1998) [4] axiomatically derived the probability weighting function w(p)=exp(-() (01e)=1e,w(1)=1), which has extensively been studied in behavioral neuroeconomics. The present study utilizes psychophysical theory to derive Prelec's probability weighting function from psychophysical laws of perceived waiting time in probabilistic choices. Also, the relations between the parameters in the probability weighting function and the probability discounting function in behavioral psychology are derived. Future directions in the application of the psychophysical theory of the probability weighting function in econophysics and neuroeconomics are discussed.

Ocular surface displacement with and without contact lenses during non-contact tonometry.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ulfah Rimayanti

Full Text Available PURPOSE: To evaluate the displacement of the central ocular surface during non-contact tonometry with and without soft contact lenses and determine the factors associated with the displacement of the central ocular surface and intraocular pressure (IOP reading changes caused by wearing soft contact lenses (CLs. METHODS: One eye each in 21 subjects was studied. The cornea was photographed using a high-speed camera at 5,000 frames/sec during non-contact tonometry without contact lenses (NCL, with -5.0 diopters (D, -0.5 D and +5.0 D CL. The displacement of the ocular surface and the factors affecting displacement at the IOP reading and maximum displacement time were investigated. RESULTS: The IOP readings while wearing +5 D CL were significantly higher than those obtained while wearing -5 D CL. The ocular surface displacement between +5 D CL and other groups were significantly different. A significant positive correlation was found between the ocular surface displacement of subjects at the IOP reading time and the IOP obtained with the non-contact tonometer. A significant negative correlation was found between the ocular surface curvature and the IOP obtained using the non-contact tonometer. The radius of curvature of the ocular surface affected the displacement during the IOP reading and maximum displacement time. CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicate that soft contact lens use changes the ocular surface behavior and IOP readings during non-contact tonometry. The radius of curvature of the eye affects the ocular surface displacement and IOP readings in this situation.

27 CFR 41.112 - Tax return.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... 27 Alcohol, Tobacco Products and Firearms 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Tax return. 41.112 Section 41.112 Alcohol, Tobacco Products and Firearms ALCOHOL AND TOBACCO TAX AND TRADE BUREAU, DEPARTMENT OF... States Deferred Payment of Tax in Puerto Rico on Tobacco Products § 41.112 Tax return. The internal...

Probability concepts in quality risk management.

Science.gov (United States)

Claycamp, H Gregg

2012-01-01

Essentially any concept of risk is built on fundamental concepts of chance, likelihood, or probability. Although risk is generally a probability of loss of something of value, given that a risk-generating event will occur or has occurred, it is ironic that the quality risk management literature and guidelines on quality risk management tools are relatively silent on the meaning and uses of "probability." The probability concept is typically applied by risk managers as a combination of frequency-based calculation and a "degree of belief" meaning of probability. Probability as a concept that is crucial for understanding and managing risk is discussed through examples from the most general, scenario-defining and ranking tools that use probability implicitly to more specific probabilistic tools in risk management. A rich history of probability in risk management applied to other fields suggests that high-quality risk management decisions benefit from the implementation of more thoughtful probability concepts in both risk modeling and risk management. Essentially any concept of risk is built on fundamental concepts of chance, likelihood, or probability. Although "risk" generally describes a probability of loss of something of value, given that a risk-generating event will occur or has occurred, it is ironic that the quality risk management literature and guidelines on quality risk management methodologies and respective tools focus on managing severity but are relatively silent on the in-depth meaning and uses of "probability." Pharmaceutical manufacturers are expanding their use of quality risk management to identify and manage risks to the patient that might occur in phases of the pharmaceutical life cycle from drug development to manufacture, marketing to product discontinuation. A probability concept is typically applied by risk managers as a combination of data-based measures of probability and a subjective "degree of belief" meaning of probability. Probability as

[Organising a successful return home].

Science.gov (United States)

Mézière, Anthony

Discharge from hospital is a major component of the quality and efficiency of the healthcare system. The failures of the return home of elderly people testify to the difficulties of applying guidelines in the area of hospital discharge. The action plan decided in the hospital for a successful return home can be jeopardised for personal, relational, functional and structural reasons originating from the different players involved in the hospital discharge. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Capital Structure and Stock Returns