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Sample records for retrospective time trend

  1. A retrospective review of trends and clinical characteristics of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Objective: Epidemiological studies indicate that methamphetamine (MA) abuse poses a major challenge to health in the Western Cape. The objectives of this study were to retrospectively assess the trends, clinical characteristics and treatment demand of MArelated admissions to a psychiatric ward in this region. Method: ...

  2. Tuberculosis in Mexico and the USA, Comparison of Trends Over Time 1990-2010

    OpenAIRE

    Hern?ndez-Gardu?o, Eduardo; Mendoza-Dami?n, Fabiola; Gardu?o-Alan?s, Adriana; Ay?n-Garibaldo, Salvador

    2015-01-01

    Background The aim was to compare tuberculosis trends in Mexico and United States and to evaluate Mexican diagnostic methods and contact investigation. Methods Retrospective comparative study of tuberculosis cases and incidence rates between both countries (1990-2010). Diagnostic methods and contact investigations were also evaluated for Mexico. Estimates were obtained from official websites. Results In Mexico, no clear trend was found over time for cases. Pulmonary (PTB) and all forms of tub...

  3. Retrospective time perception in Korsakoff's syndrome

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    El Haj, M.; Nandrino, J.L.; Kessels, R.P.C.; Matton, C.; Bacquet, J.E.; Urso, L.; Antoine, P.

    2017-01-01

    The authors investigated retrospective timing in participants with Korsakoff's syndrome. Patients were assessed on four retrospective tasks on which they were instructed to read three-digit numbers aloud (15 seconds), fill connected squares (30 seconds), decide whether words were abstract or

  4. A retrospective study and predictive modelling of Newcastle Disease trends among rural poultry of eastern Zambia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mubamba, C; Ramsay, G; Abolnik, C; Dautu, G; Gummow, B

    2016-10-01

    Newcastle Disease (ND) is a highly infectious disease of poultry that seriously impacts on food security and livelihoods of livestock farmers and communities in tropical regions of the world. ND is a constant problem in the eastern province of Zambia which has more than 740 000 rural poultry. Very few studies give a situational analysis of the disease that can be used for disease control planning in the region. With this background in mind, a retrospective epidemiological study was conducted using Newcastle Disease data submitted to the eastern province headquarters for the period from 1989 to 2014. The study found that Newcastle Disease cases in eastern Zambia followed a seasonal and cyclic pattern with peaks in the hot dry season (Overall Seasonal Index 1.1) as well as cycles every three years with an estimated provincial incidence range of 0.16 to 1.7% per year. Annual trends were compared with major intervention policies implemented by the Zambian government, which often received donor support from the international community during the study period. Aid delivered through government programmes appeared to have no major impact on ND trends between 1989 and 2014 and reasons for this are discussed. There were apparent spatial shifts in districts with outbreaks over time which could be as a result of veterinary interventions chasing outbreaks rather than implementing uniform control. Data was also fitted to a predictive time series model for ND which could be used to plan for future ND control. Time series modelling showed an increasing trend in ND annual incidence over 25 years if existing interventions continue. A different approach to controlling the disease is needed if this trend is to be halted. Conversely, the positive trend may be a function of improved reporting by farmers as a result of more awareness of the disease. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. Development of a time-trend model for analyzing and predicting case-pattern of Lassa fever epidemics in Liberia, 2013-2017.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olugasa, Babasola O; Odigie, Eugene A; Lawani, Mike; Ojo, Johnson F

    2015-01-01

    The objective was to develop a case-pattern model for Lassa fever (LF) among humans and derive predictors of time-trend point distribution of LF cases in Liberia in view of the prevailing under-reporting and public health challenge posed by the disease in the country. A retrospective 5 years data of LF distribution countrywide among humans were used to train a time-trend model of the disease in Liberia. A time-trend quadratic model was selected due to its goodness-of-fit (R2 = 0.89, and P Liberia, on which a predictive model was developed. We proposed a computationally feasible two-stage space-time permutation approach to estimate the time-trend parameters and conduct predictive inference on LF in Liberia.

  6. Trends in surgical mortality following colorectal resection between 2002 and 2012: A single-centre, retrospective analysis.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Stephens, I

    2017-06-01

    Surgical mortality is a commonly-used measurement of surgical risk. It is imperative that patients receive accurate, up-to-date information regarding operative risk. To date, studies investigating temporal changes in surgical mortality following colorectal resection in Ireland have been limited. This retrospective study investigates such trends in one of the eight centres for symptomatic and screen-detected colorectal cancers in Ireland, across an 11-year period. A steady decline in surgical mortality was found across this time, showing a significant difference in rates before and after centralisation of rectal cancer care and the advent of colorectal surgery as a surgical specialisation (5.2%, 1.52%). This has important implications for the organisation of colorectal cancer care in Ireland.

  7. A retrospective time trend study of PBDEs and PCBs in human milk from the Faroe Islands

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Faengstroem, B.; Strid, A.; Athanassiadis, I.; Bergman, Aa. [Dept. of Environmental Chemistry, Stockholm Univ. (Sweden); Grandjean, P. [Inst. of Public Health, Univ. of Southern Denmark, Odense (Denmark); Weihe, P. [Faroese Hospital System, Torshavn (Denmark)

    2004-09-15

    The Faroe Islands are located quite far from the European continent and from industrial sources of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). However, the Faroese population may be exposed to these substances through contaminated food, via goods and products in their homes, and in their work environment. High trophic level marine species, including pilot whale and seabirds, such as fulmars, have been shown to accumulate high concentrations of organohalogen substances (OHS) like PCBs and PBDEs. Possibly due to dietary differences, wide differences exist in regard to PCB exposures among the Faroese. In a birth cohort from 1987, milk pools contained relatively high PCB concentrations between 1.9-2.5 {mu}g/g lipid weight (l.w.). In another cohort from 1994, serum from pregnant Faroese women was analyzed for PCB and OH-PCBs, with results ranging from 0.15 to 22 {mu}g/g l.w. and 0.02 to 1.8 {mu}g/g l.w., respectively. In a time trend study for PBDEs and PCBs in human milk from Sweden from the early 1970s to 1997, the PBDE concentrations showed a significant increase while the PCB levels showed a decrease. Human milk samples from 1997 to 2000 indicate a decrease for the PBDEs, mainly due to reduced concentrations of BDE-47. A similar trend has been seen in human milk from Japan. In Norway, PBDE in human milk increased from 1986 to 2001, with similar concentration levels as reported in Sweden and Japan. In the United States the PBDE levels reported in human milk are about 4 times higher than those seen in Europe and Japan. The aim of the present study was to determine PBDE and PCB concentrations in a temporal trend study with samples from 1987-1999 in human milk samples from the Faroe Islands.

  8. Prospective and retrospective time perception are related to mental time travel: evidence from Alzheimer's disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    El Haj, Mohamad; Moroni, Christine; Samson, Séverine; Fasotti, Luciano; Allain, Philippe

    2013-10-01

    Unlike prospective time perception paradigms, in which participants are aware that they have to estimate forthcoming time, little is known about retrospective time perception in normal aging and Alzheimer's disease (AD). Our paper addresses this shortcoming by comparing prospective and retrospective time estimation in younger adults, older adults, and AD patients. In four prospective tasks (lasting 30s, 60s, 90s, or 120s) participants were asked to read a series of numbers and to provide a verbal estimation of the reading time. In four other retrospective tasks, they were not informed about time judgment until they were asked to provide a verbal estimation of four elapsed time intervals (lasting 30s, 60s, 90s, or 120s). AD participants gave shorter verbal time estimations than older adults and younger participants did, suggesting that time is perceived to pass quickly in these patients. For all participants, the duration of the retrospective tasks was underestimated as compared to the prospective tasks and both estimations were shorter than the real time interval. Prospective time estimation was further correlated with mental time travel, as measured with the Remember/Know paradigm. Mental time travel was even higher correlated with retrospective time estimation. Our findings shed light on the relationship between time perception and the ability to mentally project oneself into time, two skills contributing to human memory functioning. Finally, time perception deficits, as observed in AD patients, can be interpreted in terms of dramatic changes occurring in frontal lobes and hippocampus. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Trends in Radical Surgical Treatment Methods for Breast Malignancies in China: A Multicenter 10-Year Retrospective Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Bai-Lin; Sivasubramaniam, Priya G; Zhang, Qian; Wang, Jing; Zhang, Bin; Gao, Ji-Dong; Tang, Zhong-Hua; Chen, Guo-Ji; Xie, Xiao-Ming; Wang, Zhongzhao; Yang, Hong-Jian; He, Jian-Jun; Li, Hui; Li, Jia-Yuan; Fan, Jin-Hu; Wang, Xiang; Qiao, You-Lin

    2015-09-01

    Incidence rates of breast cancer continue to rise in the People's Republic of China. The purpose of this study was to describe Chinese trends in radical surgical modalities and influential imaging and demographic factors for breast malignancies. This study was a hospital-based, multicenter, 10-year (1999-2008), retrospective study. Descriptive statistical tests were used to illustrate information regarding radical surgical trends for the treatment of breast malignancies. Chi-square tests were used to assess effect of demographic factors in addition to imaging and pathological data on the specific surgical method. A total of 4,211 patients were enrolled in the survey. Among them, 3,335 patients with stage 0 to stage III disease undergoing mastectomy or breast-conserving surgery (BCS) were included in the final analysis. The rate of BCS increased from 1.53% in 1999 to 11.88% in 2008. The rate of mastectomy declined over this time period, from 98.47% in 1999 to 88.12% in 2008, with increasing use of diagnostic imaging methods and pathological biopsies. A significantly greater percentage of patients with office work, high education levels, unmarried status, younger age, and early pathological stages preferred BCS compared with mastectomy. Rates of mastectomy in China remain elevated due to diagnosis at higher stages; however, because of increased use of diagnostic imaging, improvement of biopsy methods, and patient education, rates of less invasive lumpectomy are increasing and rates of mastectomy have decreased in China. In this study, 4,211 cases were collected from 1999 to 2008 through a multicenter retrospective study of varying geographic and socioeconomic areas to illustrate trends of surgeries in the People's Republic of China. The correlations between demographic and tumor characteristics and among methods of surgical treatment were explored. This study shows that the rate of breast-conserving surgery (BCS) increased and the rate of mastectomy declined over

  10. Trends of Blood and Plasma Donations in Kazakhstan: 12-Years Retrospective Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Igissinov, Nurbek; Kulmirzayeva, Dariyana; Magzumova, Raushan; Sibinga, Cees Th Smit; Alpeissova, Sholpan

    2014-05-01

    Each country faces a continuing challenge to collect enough blood to meet the national needs. According to WHO, there should be at least 20 blood donations per 1,000 population for developing countries, in Kazakhstan this indicator was only 16.8 in 2011. Thus, we conducted an epidemiological assessment and drew a map of the regional distribution of blood and plasma donations in Kazakhstan during the years 2000-2011. The retrospective study was conducted from 2000 to 2011. Data on blood and its components donations were acquired from the Ministry of Health (annual statistical reporting form N° 39). During 2000-2011, number of blood donors decreased to 17.4% and blood donations to 6.3%. The proportion of non-remunerated blood donations and donors decreased from 97.6% to 77.9% and 97.9% to 87.7%, respectively. The paid donations had the opposite trend. Number of plasma donors increased in 2.1 times, plasma donations in 2.4 times, nevertheless the proportion of non-remunerated plasma donations decreased from 60.1% to 29.8%. The average number of blood donations per 1,000 population decreased from 19.8 (2000) to 16.8 (2011), plasma donations increased from 1.4 to 3.1. Regionally, annual average rates of blood and plasma donations per 1,000 population over 12 years varied greatly. This is the first study conducted in Kazakhstan to provide detailed information, including the regional characteristics of blood and plasma donations over an extended period of time, which can be used in blood transfusion services work.

  11. Markov Trends in Macroeconomic Time Series

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R. Paap (Richard)

    1997-01-01

    textabstractMany macroeconomic time series are characterised by long periods of positive growth, expansion periods, and short periods of negative growth, recessions. A popular model to describe this phenomenon is the Markov trend, which is a stochastic segmented trend where the slope depends on the

  12. Prospective and retrospective timing by pigeons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fetterman, J Gregor; Killeen, P Richard

    2010-05-01

    Pigeons discriminated between two pairs of durations: a short set (2.5 and 5 sec) and a long set (5 and 10 sec). The pairs were intermixed within sessions and identified by the colors on the signal and choice keys. Once the task was learned, the pigeons experienced the following three conditions seriatim: (1) The signal key was made ambiguous about the test change, but the choice keys were informative (retrospective); (2) the signal key identified the test range, but the choice keys did not (prospective); (3) probe trials were introduced in which the color of the center key signaled one test range, but the color of the choice keys signaled the other test range (inconsistent). Accuracy of choice decreased in the retrospective condition and, returned to baseline levels, was higher under the prospective condition than under the retrospective condition. In a final condition, referred to as conflict trials, the center-key color signified one test range and the choice-key colors the other range. The results from these conflict-inconsistent tests indicate that choice behavior was largely controlled by the signal-key color and not by the choice-key color. We relate these findings to different approaches to timing in animals.

  13. Retrospective evaluation of appliance price trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dale, Larry; Antinori, Camille; McNeil, Michael; McMahon, James E.; Sydny Fujita, K.

    2009-01-01

    Real prices of major appliances (refrigerators, dishwashers, heating and cooling equipment) have been falling since the late 1970s despite increases in appliance efficiency and other quality variables. This paper demonstrates that historic increases in efficiency over time, including those resulting from minimum efficiency standards, incur smaller price increases than were expected by the Department of Energy (DOE) forecasts made in conjunction with standards. This effect can be explained by technological innovation, which lowers the cost of efficiency, and by market changes contributing to lower markups and economies of scale in production of higher efficiency units. We reach four principal conclusions about appliance trends and retail price setting: 1.For the past several decades, the retail price of appliances has been steadily falling while efficiency has been increasing. 2.Past retail price predictions made by the DOE analyses of efficiency standards, assuming constant prices over time, have tended to overestimate retail prices. 3.The average incremental price to increase appliance efficiency has declined over time. DOE technical support documents have typically overestimated this incremental price and retail prices. 4.Changes in retail markups and economies of scale in production of more efficient appliances may have contributed to declines in prices of efficient appliances

  14. Zika pandemic online trends, incidence and health risk communication: a time trend study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adebayo, Gbenga; Neumark, Yehuda; Gesser-Edelsburg, Anat; Abu Ahmad, Wiessam; Levine, Hagai

    2017-01-01

    We aimed to describe the online search trends of Zika and examine their association with Zika incidence, assess the content of Zika-related press releases issued by leading health authorities and examine the association between online trends and press release timing. Using Google Trends, the 1 May 2015 to 30 May 2016 online trends of Zika and associated search terms were studied globally and in the five countries with the highest numbers of suspected cases. Correlations were then examined between online trends and Zika incidence in these countries. All Zika-related press releases issued by WHO/Pan America Health Organization (PAHO) and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) during the study period were assessed for transparency, uncertainty and audience segmentation. Witte's Extended Parallel Process Model was applied to assess self-efficacy, response efficacy, susceptibility and severity. AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average with an eXogenous predictor variable (ARIMAX) (p,d,q) regression modelling was used to quantify the association between online trends and the timing of press releases. Globally, Zika online search trends were low until the beginning of 2016, when interest rose steeply. Strong correlations (r=0.748-0.922; ponline trends and the number of suspected Zika cases in four of the five countries studied. Compared with press releases issued by WHO/PAHO, CDC press releases were significantly more likely to provide contact details and links to other resources, include figures/graphs, be risk-advisory in nature and be more readable and briefer. ARIMAX modelling results indicate that online trends preceded by 1 week press releases by WHO (stationary-R 2 =0.345; ponline trends can aid in pandemic surveillance. Identification of shortcomings in the content and timing of Zika press releases can help guide health communication efforts in the current pandemic and future public health emergencies.

  15. Trends in healthcare utilization among older Americans with colorectal cancer: A retrospective database analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Earle Craig C

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Analyses of utilization trends (cost drivers allow us to understand changes in colorectal cancer (CRC costs over time, better predict future costs, identify changes in the use of specific types of care (eg, hospice, and provide inputs for cost-effectiveness models. This retrospective cohort study evaluated healthcare resource use among US Medicare beneficiaries diagnosed with CRC between 1992 and 2002. Methods Cohorts included patients aged 66+ newly diagnosed with adenocarcinoma of the colon (n = 52,371 or rectum (n = 18,619 between 1992 and 2002 and matched patients from the general Medicare population, followed until death or December 31, 2005. Demographic and clinical characteristics were evaluated by cancer subsite. Resource use, including the percentage that used each type of resource, number of hospitalizations, and number of hospital and skilled nursing facility days, was evaluated by stage and subsite. The number of office, outpatient, and inpatient visits per person-year was calculated for each cohort, and was described by year of service, subsite, and treatment phase. Hospice use rates in the last year of life were calculated by year of service, stage, and subsite for CRC patients who died of CRC. Results CRC patients (mean age: 77.3 years; 44.9% male used more resources than controls in every category (P Conclusion Use of hospice care among CRC decedents increased substantially over the study period, while other resource use remained generally steady. Our findings may be useful for understanding CRC cost drivers, tracking trends, and forecasting resource needs for CRC patients in the future.

  16. High spatial and temporal resolution retrospective cine cardiovascular magnetic resonance from shortened free breathing real-time acquisitions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, Hui; Kellman, Peter; Larocca, Gina; Arai, Andrew E; Hansen, Michael S

    2013-11-14

    scores were given to segmented and retrospective cine series. Volumetric measurements of cardiac function were also compared by manually tracing the myocardium for segmented and retrospective cines. Mean image quality scores were similar for short axis and long axis views for both tested resolutions. Short axis scores were 4.52/4.31 (high/low matrix sizes) for breath-hold vs. 4.54/4.56 for real-time (paired t-test, P = 0.756/0.011). Long axis scores were 4.09/4.37 vs. 3.99/4.29 (P = 0.475/0.463). Mean ejection fraction was 60.8/61.4 for breath-held acquisitions vs. 60.3/60.3 for real-time acquisitions (P = 0.439/0.093). No significant differences were seen in end-diastolic volume (P = 0.460/0.268) but there was a trend towards a small overestimation of end-systolic volume of 2.0/2.5 ml, which did not reach statistical significance (P = 0.052/0.083). Real-time free breathing CMR can be used to obtain high quality retrospectively gated cine images in 16-20s per slice. Volumetric measurements and image quality scores were similar in images from breath-held segmented and free breathing, real-time acquisitions. Further speedup of image reconstruction is still needed.

  17. Time trends in births and cesarean deliveries among women with disabilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horner-Johnson, Willi; Biel, Frances M; Darney, Blair G; Caughey, Aaron B

    2017-07-01

    Although it is likely that childbearing among women with disabilities is increasing, no empirical data have been published on changes over time in the numbers of women with disabilities giving birth. Further, while it is known that women with disabilities are at increased risk of cesarean delivery, temporal trends in cesarean deliveries among women with disabilities have not been examined. To assess time trends in births by any mode and in primary cesarean deliveries among women with physical, sensory, or intellectual/developmental disabilities. We conducted a retrospective cohort study using linked vital records and hospital discharge data from all deliveries in California, 2000-2010 (n = 4,605,061). We identified women with potential disabilities using ICD-9 codes. We used descriptive statistics and visualizations to examine time patterns. Logistic regression analyses assessed the association between disability and primary cesarean delivery, stratified by year. Among all women giving birth, the proportion with a disability increased from 0.27% in 2000 to 0.80% in 2010. Women with disabilities had significantly elevated odds of primary cesarean delivery in each year, but the magnitude of the odds ratio decreased over time from 2.60 (95% CI = 2.25 = 2.99) in 2000 to 1.66 (95% CI = 1.51-1.81) in 2010. Adequate clinician training is needed to address the perinatal care needs of the increasing numbers of women with disabilities giving birth. Continued efforts to understand cesarean delivery patterns and reasons for cesarean deliveries may help guide further reductions in proportions of cesarean deliveries among women with disabilities relative to women without disabilities. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Trend time-series modeling and forecasting with neural networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qi, Min; Zhang, G Peter

    2008-05-01

    Despite its great importance, there has been no general consensus on how to model the trends in time-series data. Compared to traditional approaches, neural networks (NNs) have shown some promise in time-series forecasting. This paper investigates how to best model trend time series using NNs. Four different strategies (raw data, raw data with time index, detrending, and differencing) are used to model various trend patterns (linear, nonlinear, deterministic, stochastic, and breaking trend). We find that with NNs differencing often gives meritorious results regardless of the underlying data generating processes (DGPs). This finding is also confirmed by the real gross national product (GNP) series.

  19. Stratospheric Temperature Trends Observed by TIMED/SABER

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xian, T.; Tan, R.

    2017-12-01

    Trends in the stratospheric temperature are studied based on the temperature profile observation from the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER). The spatially trends are evaluated in different time scales ranging from decadal to monthly resolved. The results indicate a signature of BDC acceleration. There are strong warming trends (up to 9 K/decade) in the middle to upper stratosphere in the high latitude spring, summer, and autumn seasons, accompanied by strong cooling trends in the lower stratosphere. Besides, strong warming trends occurs through the whole stratosphere over the Southern Hemisphere, which confirms Antarctic ozone layer healing since 2000. In addition, the results demonstrate a significant warming trends in the middle of tropical stratosphere, which becomes strongest during June-July-August.

  20. Development of time-trend model for analysing and predicting case pattern of dog bite injury induced rabies-like-illness in Liberia, 2014-2017.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jomah, N D; Ojo, J F; Odigie, E A; Olugasa, B O

    2014-12-01

    The post-civil war records of dog bite injuries (DBI) and rabies-like-illness (RLI) among humans in Liberia is a vital epidemiological resource for developing a predictive model to guide the allocation of resources towards human rabies control. Whereas DBI and RLI are high, they are largely under-reported. The objective of this study was to develop a time model of the case-pattern and apply it to derive predictors of time-trend point distribution of DBI-RLI cases. A retrospective 6 years data of DBI distribution among humans countrywide were converted to quarterly series using a transformation technique of Minimizing Squared First Difference statistic. The generated dataset was used to train a time-trend model of the DBI-RLI syndrome in Liberia. An additive detenninistic time-trend model was selected due to its performance compared to multiplication model of trend and seasonal movement. Parameter predictors were run on least square method to predict DBI cases for a prospective 4 years period, covering 2014-2017. The two-stage predictive model of DBI case-pattern between 2014 and 2017 was characterised by a uniform upward trend within Liberia's coastal and hinterland Counties over the forecast period. This paper describes a translational application of the time-trend distribution pattern of DBI epidemics, 2008-2013 reported in Liberia, on which a predictive model was developed. A computationally feasible two-stage time-trend permutation approach is proposed to estimate the time-trend parameters and conduct predictive inference on DBI-RLI in Liberia.

  1. Cohort Measures of Internal Migration: Understanding Long-Term Trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernard, Aude

    2017-12-01

    Internal migration intensities fluctuate over time, but both migration levels and trends show great diversity. The dynamics underpinning these trends remain poorly understood because they are analyzed almost exclusively by applying period measures to cross-sectional data. This article proposes 10 cohort measures that can be applied to both prospective and retrospective data to systematically examine long-term trends. To demonstrate their benefits, the proposed measures are applied to retrospective survey data for England that provide residential histories from birth to age 50 for cohorts born between 1918 and 1957. The analysis reveals stable lifetime migration for men but increased lifetime migration for women associated with earlier ages at moving in adulthood and a compression of intervals between consecutive moves. The proposed cohort measures provide a more comprehensive picture of migration behavior and should be used to complement period measures in exploring long-term trends. Increasing availability of retrospective and longitudinal survey data means that researchers can now apply the proposed measures to a wide range of countries.

  2. Tuberculosis in Mexico and the USA, Comparison of Trends Over Time 1990-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernández-Garduño, Eduardo; Mendoza-Damián, Fabiola; Garduño-Alanís, Adriana; Ayón-Garibaldo, Salvador

    2015-07-01

    The aim was to compare tuberculosis trends in Mexico and United States and to evaluate Mexican diagnostic methods and contact investigation. Retrospective comparative study of tuberculosis cases and incidence rates between both countries (1990-2010). Diagnostic methods and contact investigations were also evaluated for Mexico. Estimates were obtained from official websites. In Mexico, no clear trend was found over time for cases. Pulmonary (PTB) and all forms of tuberculosis (AFTB) incidence decreased 2.0% annually. There was a negative correlation between the mean contacts examined per case and AFTB incidence (r(2)=-0.44, p=0.01) with a 33% reduction in AFTB incidence. In United States, PTB and AFTB cases have been decreasing 6.0% and 5.6% annually, respectively. The incidence decreased 7.3% and 6.8%, respectively. The incidence of tuberculosis in Mexico is decreasing slightly over time at 2% annually. In the United States, cases and incidence rates have been decreasing at a higher rate (5% to 7% annually). The inverse association between number of contacts examined per state and incidence rates in Mexico underscore the importance of reinforcing and improving contact investigations with the likely translation of a decrease of TB incidence at a higher rate.

  3. Academic Workload and Working Time: Retrospective Perceptions versus Time-Series Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kyvik, Svein

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to examine the validity of perceptions by academic staff about their past and present workload and working hours. Retrospective assessments are compared with time-series data. The data are drawn from four mail surveys among academic staff in Norwegian universities undertaken in the period 1982-2008. The findings show…

  4. Analytical Chemistry: A retrospective view on some current trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niessner, Reinhard

    2018-04-01

    In a retrospective view some current trends in Analytical Chemistry are outlined and connected to work published more than a hundred years ago in the same field. For example, gravimetric microanalysis after specific precipitation, once the sole basis for chemical analysis, has been transformed into a mass-sensitive transducer in combination with compound-specific receptors. Molecular spectroscopy, still practising the classical absorption/emission techniques for detecting elements or molecules experiences a change to Raman spectroscopy, is now allowing analysis of a multitude of additional features. Chemical sensors are now used to perform a vast number of analytical measurements. Especially paper-based devices (dipsticks, microfluidic pads) celebrate a revival as they can potentially revolutionize medicine in the developing world. Industry 4.0 will lead to a further increase of sensor applications. Preceding separation and enrichment of analytes from complicated matrices remains the backbone for a successful analysis, despite increasing attempts to avoid clean-up. Continuous separation techniques will become a key element for 24/7 production of goods with certified quality. Attempts to get instantaneous and specific chemical information by optical or electrical transduction will need highly selective receptors in large quantities. Further understanding of ligand - receptor complex structures is the key for successful generation of artificial bio-inspired receptors. © 2018 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  5. Cancer incidence among 1st generation migrants compared to native Danes--a retrospective cohort study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nørredam, Marie Louise; Krasnik, A; Pipper, C

    2007-01-01

    STUDY AIMS: To investigate the incidence of cancer among 1st generation migrants compared to native Danes, including time trends in the risk of cancer among migrants. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study design. Migrants were matched 1:4 on age and sex with a Danish born reference population....... The time trends of the study are interesting and a relevant topic for further research....

  6. Trend Over Time for Cholecystectomy following the Introduction of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2018-03-05

    Mar 5, 2018 ... Trend Over Time for Cholecystectomy following the Introduction of. Laparoscopy in a Nigerian Tertiary ... How to cite this article: Adisa AO, Lawal OO, Adejuyigbe O. Trend over time for cholecystectomy following .... The challenges with record keeping in the era of open cholecystectomy in our center made it ...

  7. Time Trends in School Well-Being Among Adolescents in Oslo: Can Trends be Explained by Social Relationships?

    OpenAIRE

    Wilhelmsen, Tiril

    2017-01-01

    Even though well-being in the domain of school is important for mental health, time trend research of this topic is limited. In particular, there is a lack of research investigating differences between ethnic minority and majority students, and there is a lack of literature empirically exploring possible explanations for the time trends in school well-being. The aims of this study were to investigate time trends in school well-being among adolescents in Oslo, explore moderations by gender and...

  8. Trends in puberty timing in humans and environmental modifiers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Toppari, Jorma; Juul, Anders

    2010-01-01

    Secular trends in timing of puberty appear to continue although under-nutrition has not been any longer a limiting factor for pubertal development. Now obesity and other environmental reasons have been suspected to cause this trend, and endocrine disrupting chemicals have become into focus...... as possible contributors. Epidemiological studies on endocrine disrupters are still scarce and show only weak associations between exposures and timing of puberty. Since genetic background explains 50-80% of variability in the timing of puberty, it is not surprising that the observed environmental effects...... are rather modest when individual exposures are assessed. Despite that, some exposures have been reported to be associated to early (e.g., polybrominated biphenyls) or delayed (e.g., lead) puberty. Here we shortly review the available data on recent trends in timing of puberty and the possible role...

  9. Greenhouse gas emissions in Europe: a retrospective trend analysis for the period 1990-2008

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Borgan, A.; Gugele, B.; Haider, S. (Umweltbundesamt, Vienna (Austria)) (and others)

    2011-10-15

    This report presents a retrospective overview of the greenhouse gas (GHG) emission trends in Europe from 1990 to 2008, with a particular focus on the underpinning drivers and the influence of EU policies. The analysis is based on the combination of decomposition analyses to identify the respective influence of each identified driver and an overview of the main EU policies and their likely effects on these drivers. The period covered by the analysis stops in 2008. As a result, the analysis avoids the effects of the recent economic crisis on GHG emissions. This reinforces the conclusion on long-term emission drivers. The report covers the EU-27 and presents results for the other EEA member countries (Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, Switzerland and Turkey) and Croatia (EU candidate country together with Turkey) as far as data is available. The results can be summarized as: 1) Overall GHG emission trends. EU GHG emissions were reduced between 1990 and 2008. Most of the reductions took place in the 1990s, but emissions have also been decreasing every year from 2003 until the last year considered in this report, 2008. 2) Predominant drivers. For the most part, the GHG emission trends observed in the EU between 1990 and 2008 resulted from economic factors. However, EU policies, some of which were not directly targeting GHG emissions, as well as national policies by some front runner countries, also played a role in these trends. 3) Impacts of EU policies. Between 2000 and 2008, emission trends were more directly targeted by a range of energy and climate policies, e.g. the implementation of the European Climate Change programme. However, the steady increase in energy demand during this period - particularly electricity - outweighed the considerable EU-wide savings generated by energy efficiency improvements and the development of renewable energy. 4) Co-benefits. Taking example from the positive benefits on GHG emissions that resulted from the implementation of non

  10. On the Use of Running Trends as Summary Statistics for Univariate Time Series and Time Series Association

    OpenAIRE

    Trottini, Mario; Vigo, Isabel; Belda, Santiago

    2015-01-01

    Given a time series, running trends analysis (RTA) involves evaluating least squares trends over overlapping time windows of L consecutive time points, with overlap by all but one observation. This produces a new series called the “running trends series,” which is used as summary statistics of the original series for further analysis. In recent years, RTA has been widely used in climate applied research as summary statistics for time series and time series association. There is no doubt that ...

  11. Real-time trend monitoring of gas compressor stations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Van Hardeveld, T. (Nova, an Alberta Corp., AB (Canada))

    1991-02-01

    The authors' company has developed a machinery health monitoring system (MHealth) for short-term and long-term historical trending and analysis of data from its 40 gas compressor stations. The author discusses the benefits of real-time trending in troubleshooting operations, in preventative maintenance scheduling and cites specific applications in the startup operations of several new gas compressor/centrifugal compressor units.

  12. Trends in puberty timing in humans and environmental modifiers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Toppari, Jorma; Juul, Anders

    2010-01-01

    Secular trends in timing of puberty appear to continue although under-nutrition has not been any longer a limiting factor for pubertal development. Now obesity and other environmental reasons have been suspected to cause this trend, and endocrine disrupting chemicals have become into focus...... as possible contributors. Epidemiological studies on endocrine disrupters are still scarce and show only weak associations between exposures and timing of puberty. Since genetic background explains 50-80% of variability in the timing of puberty, it is not surprising that the observed environmental effects...

  13. Trends in knee arthroscopy and subsequent arthroplasty in an Australian population: a retrospective cohort study

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Background Knee arthroscopy is a common procedure in orthopaedic surgery. In recent times the efficacy of this procedure has been questioned with a number of randomized controlled trials demonstrating a lack of effect in the treatment of osteoarthritis. Consequently, a number of trend studies have been conducted, exploring rates of knee arthroscopy and subsequent conversion to Total Knee Arthroplasty (TKA) with varying results. Progression to TKA is seen as an indicator of lack of effect of primary knee arthroscopy. The aim of this paper is to measure overall rates of knee arthroscopy and the proportion of these patients that undergo subsequent total knee arthroplasty (TKA) within 24 months, and to measure trends over time in an Australian population. Methods We conducted a retrospective cohort study of all adults undergoing a knee arthroscopy and TKA in all hospitals in New South Wales (NSW), Australia between 2000 and 2008. Datasets obtained from the Centre for Health Record Linkage (CHeReL) were analysed using negative binomial regression. Admission rates for knee arthroscopy were determined by year, age, gender and hospital status (public versus private) and readmission for TKA within 24 months was calculated. Results There was no significant change in the overall rate of knee arthroscopy between 2000 and 2008 (-0.68%, 95% CI: -2.80 to 1.49). The rates declined in public hospitals (-1.25%, 95% CI: -2.39 to -0.10) and remained relatively steady in private hospitals (0.42%, 95% CI: -1.43 to 0.60). The proportion of patients 65 years or over undergoing TKA within 24 months of knee arthroscopy was 21.5%. After adjusting for age and gender, there was a significant decline in rates of TKA within 24 months of knee arthroscopy for all patients (-1.70%, 95% CI:-3.13 to -0.24), patients admitted to private hospitals (-2.65%, 95% CI: -4.06 to -1.23) and patients aged ≥65 years (-3.12%, 95% CI: -5.02 to -1.18). Conclusions Rates of knee arthroscopy are not increasing

  14. Time trends of physical activity and television viewing time in Brazil: 2006-2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mielke, Grégore I; Hallal, Pedro C; Malta, Deborah C; Lee, I-Min

    2014-08-15

    Despite recent advances in surveillance of physical activity, data on time trends of physical activity in low and middle-income countries are lacking. This study describes time trends in physical activity and television viewing between 2006 and 2012 among Brazilian adults. Data from 371,271 adult participants (18 + years) in the Surveillance System for Risk and Protective Factors for Chronic Illnesses using Telephone Survey (VIGITEL) were analysed. Time trends in leisure-time physical activity (≥ 5 days/wk; ≥ 30 min/day), transportation physical activity (using bicycle or walking for ≥ 30 minutes per day as a means of transportation to/from work) and proportion of participants spending more than three hours per day watching television were analysed. Annual changes according to sex, age and years of schooling were calculated. There was an increase in leisure-time physical activity from 12.8% in 2006 to 14.9% in 2012 (annual increase of 1.9%; p physical activity decreased 12.9% per year (p physical activity appears to be increasing, while television viewing time appears to be decreasing in recent years. However, transportation physical activity has been declining. These data are important for informing national public health policies.

  15. Trend Change Detection in NDVI Time Series: Effects of Inter-Annual Variability and Methodology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forkel, Matthias; Carvalhais, Nuno; Verbesselt, Jan; Mahecha, Miguel D.; Neigh, Christopher S.R.; Reichstein, Markus

    2013-01-01

    Changing trends in ecosystem productivity can be quantified using satellite observations of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). However, the estimation of trends from NDVI time series differs substantially depending on analyzed satellite dataset, the corresponding spatiotemporal resolution, and the applied statistical method. Here we compare the performance of a wide range of trend estimation methods and demonstrate that performance decreases with increasing inter-annual variability in the NDVI time series. Trend slope estimates based on annual aggregated time series or based on a seasonal-trend model show better performances than methods that remove the seasonal cycle of the time series. A breakpoint detection analysis reveals that an overestimation of breakpoints in NDVI trends can result in wrong or even opposite trend estimates. Based on our results, we give practical recommendations for the application of trend methods on long-term NDVI time series. Particularly, we apply and compare different methods on NDVI time series in Alaska, where both greening and browning trends have been previously observed. Here, the multi-method uncertainty of NDVI trends is quantified through the application of the different trend estimation methods. Our results indicate that greening NDVI trends in Alaska are more spatially and temporally prevalent than browning trends. We also show that detected breakpoints in NDVI trends tend to coincide with large fires. Overall, our analyses demonstrate that seasonal trend methods need to be improved against inter-annual variability to quantify changing trends in ecosystem productivity with higher accuracy.

  16. Trends in baseline CD4 cell counts and risk factors for late antiretroviral therapy initiation among HIV-positive patients in Shanghai, a retrospective cross-sectional study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Jianjun; Liu, Li; Shen, Jiayin; Chen, Panpan; Lu, Hongzhou

    2017-04-19

    There are few studies focus on the factors underlying the late initiation of ART in China. We analyzed the trends in the median CD4 cell counts among different patient groups over time and the risk factors for the late initiation of ART in Shanghai, China. A retrospective cross-sectional survey was made in the Department of Infectious Disease of Shanghai Public Health Clinical Center which is a designated diagnosis and treatment center for HIV-positive patients in Shanghai during the period of January 1st, 2008--June 30th, 2014. Late ART initiation was defined as a CD4 cell count 30 years) (p HIV exposure who are male, older even heterosexual orientation should be given more opportunities to receive frequently screening, earlier diagnoses and timely treatment.

  17. Assessing Climate Risk on Agricultural Production: Insights Using Retrospective Analysis of Crop Insurance and Climatic Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reyes, J. J.; Elias, E.; Eischens, A.; Shilts, M.; Rango, A.; Steele, R.

    2017-12-01

    The collaborative synthesis of existing datasets, such as long-term climate observations and farmers' crop insurance payments, can increase their overall collective value and societal application. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Climate Hubs were created to develop and deliver science-based information and technologies to agricultural and natural resource managers to enable climate-informed decision-making. As part of this mission, Hubs work across USDA and other climate service agencies to synthesize existing information. The USDA Risk Management Agency (RMA) is responsible for overseeing the Federal crop insurance program which currently insures over $100 billion in crops annually. RMA hosts data describing the cause for loss (e.g. drought, wind, irrigation failure) and indemnity amount (i.e. total cost of loss) at multiple spatio-temporal scales (i.e. state, county, year, month). The objective of this paper is to link climate information with indemnities, and their associated cause of loss, to assess climate risk on agricultural production and provide regionally-relevant information to stakeholders to promote resilient working landscapes. We performed a retrospective trend analysis at the state-level for the American Southwest (SW). First, we assessed indemnity-only trends by cause of loss and crop type at varying temporal scales. Historical monthly weather data (i.e. precipitation and temperature) and long-term drought indices (e.g. Palmer Drought Severity Index) were then linked with indemnities and grouped by different causes of loss. Climatological ranks were used to integrate historical comparative intensity of acute and long-term climatic events. Heat and drought as causes of loss were most correlated with temperature and drought indicators, respectively. Across all SW states increasing indemnities were correlated with warmer conditions. Multiple statistical trend analyses suggest a framework is necessary to appropriately measure the biophysical

  18. An ecological approach to prospective and retrospective timing of long durations: a study involving gamers.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simon Tobin

    Full Text Available To date, most studies comparing prospective and retrospective timing have failed to use long durations and tasks with a certain degree of ecological validity. The present study assessed the effect of the timing paradigm on playing video games in a "naturalistic environment" (gaming centers. In addition, as it involved gamers, it provided an opportunity to examine the effect of gaming profile on time estimation. A total of 116 participants were asked to estimate prospectively or retrospectively a video game session lasting 12, 35 or 58 minutes. The results indicate that time is perceived as longer in the prospective paradigm than in the retrospective one, although the variability of estimates is the same. Moreover, the 12-minute session was perceived as longer, proportionally, than the 35- and 58-minute sessions. The study also revealed that the number of hours participants spent playing video games per week was a significant predictor of time estimates. To account for the main findings, the differences between prospective and retrospective timing are discussed in quantitative terms using a proposed theoretical framework, which states that both paradigms use the same cognitive processes, but in different proportions. Finally, the hypothesis that gamers play more because they underestimate time is also discussed.

  19. Studying time to pregnancy by use of a retrospective design

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Joffe, Michael; Key, Jane; Best, Nicky

    2005-01-01

    Biologic fertility can be measured using time to pregnancy (TTP). Retrospective designs, although lacking detailed timed information about behavior and exposure, are useful since they have a well-defined target population, often have good response rates, and are simpler and less expensive...... at the beginning of unprotected intercourse. More complete inference is possible if the study design covers the whole population, not just those who achieve a pregnancy....

  20. Three measures of longevity: time trends and record values

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Canudas-Romo, V

    2010-01-01

    at birth increased from a level of 44 years in Sweden in 1840 to 82 years in Japan in 2005. The record median age at death shows increasing patterns similar to those observed in life expectancy at birth. However, the record modal age at death changes very little until the second half of the twentieth......This article examines the trend over time in the measures of “typical” longevity experienced by members of a population: life expectancy at birth, and the median and modal ages at death. The article also analyzes trends in record values observed for all three measures. The record life expectancy...... time from a dominance of child mortality reductions to a dominance of adult mortality reductions, which became evident by studying trends in the record modal age at death....

  1. Methodological issues in analyzing time trends in biologic fertility: protection bias

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Key, Jane; Best, Nicky; Joffe, Michael

    2009-01-01

    One method of assessing biologic fertility is to measure time to pregnancy (TTP). Accidental pregnancies do not generate a valid TTP value and lead to nonrandom missing data if couples experiencing accidental pregnancies are more fertile than the general population. If factors affecting the rate...... of fertility trends in Europe over the past 50 years. Couples experiencing accidental pregnancies tended to be more fertile than the general population. However, trends in accidental pregnancy rates were inconsistent across countries and were insufficient to produce substantial bias in fertility trends...... of accidental pregnancies, such as availability of effective contraception and induced abortion, vary over time, then the result may be protection bias in the estimates of fertility time trends. Six European data sets were analyzed to investigate whether evidence of protection bias exists in TTP studies...

  2. Track Irregularity Time Series Analysis and Trend Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jia Chaolong

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The combination of linear and nonlinear methods is widely used in the prediction of time series data. This paper analyzes track irregularity time series data by using gray incidence degree models and methods of data transformation, trying to find the connotative relationship between the time series data. In this paper, GM (1,1 is based on first-order, single variable linear differential equations; after an adaptive improvement and error correction, it is used to predict the long-term changing trend of track irregularity at a fixed measuring point; the stochastic linear AR, Kalman filtering model, and artificial neural network model are applied to predict the short-term changing trend of track irregularity at unit section. Both long-term and short-term changes prove that the model is effective and can achieve the expected accuracy.

  3. Econophysics — complex correlations and trend switchings in financial time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Preis, T.

    2011-03-01

    This article focuses on the analysis of financial time series and their correlations. A method is used for quantifying pattern based correlations of a time series. With this methodology, evidence is found that typical behavioral patterns of financial market participants manifest over short time scales, i.e., that reactions to given price patterns are not entirely random, but that similar price patterns also cause similar reactions. Based on the investigation of the complex correlations in financial time series, the question arises, which properties change when switching from a positive trend to a negative trend. An empirical quantification by rescaling provides the result that new price extrema coincide with a significant increase in transaction volume and a significant decrease in the length of corresponding time intervals between transactions. These findings are independent of the time scale over 9 orders of magnitude, and they exhibit characteristics which one can also find in other complex systems in nature (and in physical systems in particular). These properties are independent of the markets analyzed. Trends that exist only for a few seconds show the same characteristics as trends on time scales of several months. Thus, it is possible to study financial bubbles and their collapses in more detail, because trend switching processes occur with higher frequency on small time scales. In addition, a Monte Carlo based simulation of financial markets is analyzed and extended in order to reproduce empirical features and to gain insight into their causes. These causes include both financial market microstructure and the risk aversion of market participants.

  4. Time-trends in gastroprotection with NSAIDs

    OpenAIRE

    Valkhoff , Vera E.; Van Soest , Eva Marianne; Sturkenboom , Miriam C; Kuipers , Ernst J

    2010-01-01

    Abstract Background: Preventive strategies are advocated in patients at risk of upper gastrointestinal (UGI) complications associated with non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs). Aim: We examined time trends in preventive strategies. Methods: In a study population comprising of 50,126 NSAID users ? 50 yrs from the Integrated Primary Care Information database, we considered two preventive strategies: co-prescription of gastroprotective agents and prescription of a cyc...

  5. A retrospective time trend study of firearm and non- firearm homicide ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    USA, firearm ownership is known to be a significant predictor of ... firearm homicide after 2010 coincided with police fast-tracking new firearm licence applications. Cape Town's coloured .... provided a measure of person-time. We carried out ...

  6. Seasonal adjustment methods and real time trend-cycle estimation

    CERN Document Server

    Bee Dagum, Estela

    2016-01-01

    This book explores widely used seasonal adjustment methods and recent developments in real time trend-cycle estimation. It discusses in detail the properties and limitations of X12ARIMA, TRAMO-SEATS and STAMP - the main seasonal adjustment methods used by statistical agencies. Several real-world cases illustrate each method and real data examples can be followed throughout the text. The trend-cycle estimation is presented using nonparametric techniques based on moving averages, linear filters and reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces, taking recent advances into account. The book provides a systematical treatment of results that to date have been scattered throughout the literature. Seasonal adjustment and real time trend-cycle prediction play an essential part at all levels of activity in modern economies. They are used by governments to counteract cyclical recessions, by central banks to control inflation, by decision makers for better modeling and planning and by hospitals, manufacturers, builders, transportat...

  7. Space-time patterns of trends in stratospheric constituents derived from UARS measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Randel, William J.; Wu, Fei; Russell, James M.; Waters, Joe

    1999-02-01

    The spatial and temporal behavior of low-frequency changes (trends) in stratospheric constituents measured by instruments on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) during 1991-98 is investigated. The data include CH4, H2O, HF, HCl, O3, and NO2 from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE), and O3, ClO, and HNO3 from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS). Time series of global anomalies are analyzed by linear regression and empirical orthogonal function analysis. Each of the constituents show significant linear trends over at least some region of the stratosphere, and the spatial patterns exhibit coupling between the different species. Several of the constituents (namely CH4, H2O, HF, HCl, O3, and NO2) exhibit a temporal change in trend rates, with strong changes prior to 1996 and weaker (or reversed) trends thereafter. Positive trends are observed in upper stratospheric ClO, with a percentage rate during 1993-97 consistent with stratospheric HCl increases and with tropospheric chlorine emission rates. Significant negative trends in ozone in the tropical middle stratosphere are found in both HALOE and MLS data during 1993-97, together with positive trends in the tropics near 25 km. These trends are very different from the decadal-scale ozone trends observed since 1979, and this demonstrates the variability of trends calculated over short time periods. Positive trends in NO2 are found in the tropical middle stratosphere, and spatial coincidence to the observed ozone decreases suggests the ozone is responding to the NO2 increase. Significant negative trends in HNO3 are found in the lower stratosphere of both hemispheres. These coupled signatures offer a fingerprint of chemical evolution in the stratosphere for the UARS time frame.

  8. Trends in Life Expectancy of Cystic Fibrosis Patients in Moscow and their Connection with the Treatment Received: Retrospective Analysis for 1993–2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Yu. Kashirskaya

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Cystic fibrosis is multiple organ pathology that requires a complex treatment. Its standardization and pharmacoeconomic analysis are absolutely necessary. We performed a retrospective analysis of the trends in life expectancy of cystic fibrosis patients who lived inMoscow in 1993, 1998, 2003, 2008, and 2013. It was found that the survival rate of these patients depended on the choice of drug therapy (pancreatic enzymes, dornase alfa, intravenous and inhaled antipseudomonal antibiotics, changes in diet, active dispensary observation at a specialized center for cystic fibrosis, and neonatal screening. We determined the cost of drug therapy per patient. From 1993 to 2013, the survival rate of patients who lived in Moscow increased by more than 20 years (from 16 to 39 years, respectively. The average cost of therapy increased more than 10 times (from USD 1.8 to 21.9 thousand, respectively.

  9. Time Trends in Antipsychotic Drug Use in Patients with Dementia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nørgaard, Ane; Jensen-Dahm, Christina; Gasse, Christiane

    2015-01-01

    : To investigate time trends in use of antipsychotics and other psychotropic drugs in dementia care. METHODS: The study included longitudinal data on all Danish residents ≥65 years. The study population was defined on January 1 of each year from 2000-2012. Data included prescriptions, discharge diagnoses......, and somatic and psychiatric comorbidities. Multivariate time trend analyses of psychotropic drug use in patients with dementia within 4-year age bands were performed. RESULTS: Overall, among patients with dementia the prevalence of antipsychotic drug use decreased from 31.3% in 2000 to 20.4% in 2012...

  10. Trends in the prevalence of periodontitis in Taiwan from 1997 to 2013: A nationwide population-based retrospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Hui-Chieh; Su, Ni-Yu; Huang, Jing-Yang; Lee, Shiuan-Shinn; Chang, Yu-Chao

    2017-11-01

    Periodontitis is one of the most prevalent oral diseases. In this study, we probed the nationwide registered database to assess the time trends of prevalence of periodontitis in Taiwan.A retrospective study was conducted to analyze the registered database compiled by the National Health Insurance provided by the Department of Health, Taiwan, from 1997 to December 2013.We found that the prevalence of periodontitis significantly increased from 11.5% in 1997 to 19.59% in 2013 (P for trend periodontitis from 1997 to 2013 was 54.46 ± 14.47 and 45.51 ± 16.58 years old, respectively. The proportion of individuals with periodontitis in age group >65 years old decreased markedly. The proportion of individuals with periodontitis in age groups periodontitis (male: RR, 67.42, 95% confidence interval [CI], 17.04-266.76; female: RR, 65.85, 95% CI, 16.70-259.70). Both male and female groups showed the similar age-effect pattern in the cross-sectional age curve from age-period-cohort model. There was an upturn with advancing age up to 40 to 50 years old and then a downward trend in both genders. Population dwelling in suburban area (RR, 0.95; 95% CI, 0.94-0.97) and rural area (RR, 0.97; 95% CI, 0.95-0.99) had the lower risk of periodontitis than those who lived in urban area. The higher income group revealed the higher risk of periodontitis compared with lower income group (RR, 1.20; 95% CI, 1.18-1.23).The prevalence of periodontitis significantly increased in Taiwan over past 17 years. The mean age with periodontitis was shown in a decreased pattern. The use of a nationwide population-based database could provide sufficient sample size, generalizability, and statistical power to assess the periodontal status in Taiwan.

  11. Trends of Concurrent Ankle Arthroscopy at the Time of Operative Treatment of Ankle Fracture: A National Database Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ackermann, Jakob; Fraser, Ethan J; Murawski, Christopher D; Desai, Payal; Vig, Khushdeep; Kennedy, John G

    2016-04-01

    The purpose of this study was to report trends associated with concurrent ankle arthroscopy at the time of operative treatment of ankle fracture. The current procedural terminology (CPT) billing codes were used to search the PearlDiver Patient Record Database and identify all patients who were treated for acute ankle fracture in the United States. The Medicare Standard Analytic Files were searchable between 2005 and 2011 and the United Healthcare Orthopedic Dataset from 2007 to 2011. Annual trends were expressed only between 2007 and 2011, as it was the common time period among both databases. Demographic factors were identified for all procedures as well as the cost aspect using the Medicare data set. In total, 32 307 patients underwent open reduction internal fixation (ORIF) of an ankle fracture, of whom 313 (1.0%) had an ankle arthroscopy performed simultaneously. Of those 313 cases, 70 (22.4%) patients received microfracture treatment. Between 2005 and 2011, 85 203 patients were treated for an ankle fracture whether via ORIF or closed treatment. Of these, a total of 566 patients underwent arthroscopic treatment within 7 years. The prevalence of arthroscopy after ankle fracture decreased significantly by 45% from 2007 to 2011 (Pankle fracture treatment, it appears that only a small proportion of surgeons in the United States perform these procedures concurrently. Therapeutic, Level IV: Retrospective. © 2015 The Author(s).

  12. Interrupted time-series analysis: studying trends in neurosurgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Ricky H; Smieliauskas, Fabrice; Pan, I-Wen; Lam, Sandi K

    2015-12-01

    OBJECT Neurosurgery studies traditionally have evaluated the effects of interventions on health care outcomes by studying overall changes in measured outcomes over time. Yet, this type of linear analysis is limited due to lack of consideration of the trend's effects both pre- and postintervention and the potential for confounding influences. The aim of this study was to illustrate interrupted time-series analysis (ITSA) as applied to an example in the neurosurgical literature and highlight ITSA's potential for future applications. METHODS The methods used in previous neurosurgical studies were analyzed and then compared with the methodology of ITSA. RESULTS The ITSA method was identified in the neurosurgical literature as an important technique for isolating the effect of an intervention (such as a policy change or a quality and safety initiative) on a health outcome independent of other factors driving trends in the outcome. The authors determined that ITSA allows for analysis of the intervention's immediate impact on outcome level and on subsequent trends and enables a more careful measure of the causal effects of interventions on health care outcomes. CONCLUSIONS ITSA represents a significant improvement over traditional observational study designs in quantifying the impact of an intervention. ITSA is a useful statistical procedure to understand, consider, and implement as the field of neurosurgery evolves in sophistication in big-data analytics, economics, and health services research.

  13. Spinal Cord Injury due to Tumour or Metastasis in Aragón, Northeastern Spain (1991–2008: Incidence, Time Trends, and Neurological Function

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maayken Elizabeth Louise van den Berg

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. Understanding the presentation of spinal cord injury (SCI due to tumours considering population distribution and temporal trends is key to managing SCI health services. This study quantified incidence rates, function scores, and trends of SCI due to tumour or metastasis over an 18-year time period in a defined region in Spain. Methods. A retrospective cohort study included in-and outpatients with nontraumatic SCI due to tumour or metastasis admitted to a metropolitan hospital in Spain between 1991 and 2008. Main outcome measures were crude and age- and sex-adjusted incidence rates, tumour location and type, distribution by spinal level, neurological level of injury, and impairment ASIA scores. Results. Primary tumour or metastasis accounted for 32.5% of nontraumatic SCI with an incidence rate of 4.1 per million population. Increasing rates with age and over time were observed. Major pathology groups were intradural-extramedullary masses from which meningiomas and neurinomas accounted for 40%. Lesions were mostly incomplete with predominant ASIA Grade D. Conclusions. Increasing incidence rates of tumour-related SCI over time in the middle-aged and the elderly suggest a growing need for neurooncology health resources in the future.

  14. Statistical analysis of strait time index and a simple model for trend and trend reversal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Kan; Jayaprakash, C.

    2003-06-01

    We analyze the daily closing prices of the Strait Time Index (STI) as well as the individual stocks traded in Singapore's stock market from 1988 to 2001. We find that the Hurst exponent is approximately 0.6 for both the STI and individual stocks, while the normal correlation functions show the random walk exponent of 0.5. We also investigate the conditional average of the price change in an interval of length T given the price change in the previous interval. We find strong correlations for price changes larger than a threshold value proportional to T; this indicates that there is no uniform crossover to Gaussian behavior. A simple model based on short-time trend and trend reversal is constructed. We show that the model exhibits statistical properties and market swings similar to those of the real market.

  15. Time trends in human fecundability in Sweden

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scheike, Thomas H; Rylander, Lars; Carstensen, Lisbeth

    2008-01-01

    ,000 primiparous women 20 years of age and older in the nationwide Swedish Medical Birth Registry from 1983 through 2002. This age restriction led to an exclusion of 10% of primiparous pregnancies. Subfertility (TTP > or =1 year) was analyzed as a function of maternal age, calendar time at initiation of attempt...... increased with age, except that for women in their late 1930s, an apparent decrease was observed, particularly among the early cohorts. CONCLUSION: We found decreasing subfertility over time. We speculate that these patterns might be related to a Sweden-specific decrease over time in sexually transmitted...... diseases, to changes in sexual behavior induced by socioeconomic conditions, or to broader biologic or educational trends....

  16. Using exogenous variables in testing for monotonic trends in hydrologic time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alley, William M.

    1988-01-01

    One approach that has been used in performing a nonparametric test for monotonic trend in a hydrologic time series consists of a two-stage analysis. First, a regression equation is estimated for the variable being tested as a function of an exogenous variable. A nonparametric trend test such as the Kendall test is then performed on the residuals from the equation. By analogy to stagewise regression and through Monte Carlo experiments, it is demonstrated that this approach will tend to underestimate the magnitude of the trend and to result in some loss in power as a result of ignoring the interaction between the exogenous variable and time. An alternative approach, referred to as the adjusted variable Kendall test, is demonstrated to generally have increased statistical power and to provide more reliable estimates of the trend slope. In addition, the utility of including an exogenous variable in a trend test is examined under selected conditions.

  17. Trends in U.S. adult chronic disability rates over time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iezzoni, Lisa I; Kurtz, Stephen G; Rao, Sowmya R

    2014-10-01

    Trends in the patterns and prevalence of chronic disability among U.S. residents carry important implications for public health and public policies across multiple societal sectors. To examine trends in U.S. adult population rates of chronic disability from 1998 to 2011 using 7 different disability measures and examining the implications of trends in population age, race and ethnicity, and body mass index (BMI). We used National Health Interview Survey data on civilian, non-institutionalized U.S. residents ages ≥ 18 from selected years between 1998 and 2011. We used self-reported information on functional impairments, activity/participation limitations, and expected duration to create 7 chronic disability measures. We used direct standardization to account for changes in age, race/ethnicity, and BMI distributions over time. Multivariable logistic regression models identified associations of disability with sociodemographic characteristics. Without adjustment, population rates of all 7 disabilities increased significantly (p disability types continued to show increased rates over time (p disability. If these trends continue, the numbers and proportions of U.S. residents with various disabilities will continue rising in coming years. In particular, the prevalence of movement difficulties and work limitations will increase. Furthermore, disability will remain strongly associated with low levels of education, employment, and income. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Seasonal and annual precipitation time series trend analysis in North Carolina, United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sayemuzzaman, Mohammad; Jha, Manoj K.

    2014-02-01

    The present study performs the spatial and temporal trend analysis of the annual and seasonal time-series of a set of uniformly distributed 249 stations precipitation data across the state of North Carolina, United States over the period of 1950-2009. The Mann-Kendall (MK) test, the Theil-Sen approach (TSA) and the Sequential Mann-Kendall (SQMK) test were applied to quantify the significance of trend, magnitude of trend, and the trend shift, respectively. Regional (mountain, piedmont and coastal) precipitation trends were also analyzed using the above-mentioned tests. Prior to the application of statistical tests, the pre-whitening technique was used to eliminate the effect of autocorrelation of precipitation data series. The application of the above-mentioned procedures has shown very notable statewide increasing trend for winter and decreasing trend for fall precipitation. Statewide mixed (increasing/decreasing) trend has been detected in annual, spring, and summer precipitation time series. Significant trends (confidence level ≥ 95%) were detected only in 8, 7, 4 and 10 nos. of stations (out of 249 stations) in winter, spring, summer, and fall, respectively. Magnitude of the highest increasing (decreasing) precipitation trend was found about 4 mm/season (- 4.50 mm/season) in fall (summer) season. Annual precipitation trend magnitude varied between - 5.50 mm/year and 9 mm/year. Regional trend analysis found increasing precipitation in mountain and coastal regions in general except during the winter. Piedmont region was found to have increasing trends in summer and fall, but decreasing trend in winter, spring and on an annual basis. The SQMK test on "trend shift analysis" identified a significant shift during 1960 - 70 in most parts of the state. Finally, the comparison between winter (summer) precipitations with the North Atlantic Oscillation (Southern Oscillation) indices concluded that the variability and trend of precipitation can be explained by the

  19. Time trends in the natural dizygotic twinning rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Derom, Catherine; Gielen, Marij; Peeters, Hilde; Frijns, Jean-Pierre; Zeegers, Maurice P A

    2011-08-01

    The natural dizygotic (DZ) twinning rate has been proposed as a reliable and useful measure of human fecundity, if adjusted for maternal age at twin birth. The aim of this study was to analyze age-adjusted trends in natural DZ twinning rates over the past 40 years using data from the 'East Flanders Prospective Twin Survey (EFPTS)'. This study involved 4835 naturally conceived twin pregnancies between 1969 and 2009 from the population-based Belgian 'EFPTS'. Age-adjusted trends in the incidence of natural DZ twin pregnancies were calculated using a generalized linear model with Poisson distribution. Both the natural DZ twinning rates and maternal age at twin birth increased in a linear fashion from 1969 to 2009. When age-adjusted, we found that the trend in the natural DZ twinning rate was stable during the whole time period. According to our population-based data and after age-adjustment, a stable natural DZ twinning rate could be observed over the last four decades. Under the assumption that the spontaneous DZ twinning rate is a sensor of fecundity, this indicates a stable 'high' fecundity for this population.

  20. Time trends for injuries and illness, and their relation to performance in the National Basketball Association.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Podlog, Leslie; Buhler, Craig F; Pollack, Harvey; Hopkins, Paul N; Burgess, Paul R

    2015-05-01

    To survey injury/illness in the National Basketball Association over a 25-year period and examine the relationship of injury/illness to team performance. A retrospective correlational design. Trends were examined in reported numbers of players injured/ill during a season and games missed due to injury/illness from seasons ending in 1986 through 2005. This period was compared to years 2006-2010, when NBA teams were allowed to increase the total number of players on the team from 12 to 15. There was a highly significant trend (pBasketball Association up until the expansion of team size in 2006. Following 2006, team expansion was positively associated with decreased injury/illness rates. The latter finding suggests the importance of maintaining a healthy roster with respect to winning outcomes. Copyright © 2014 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Trends in childhood type 1 diabetes mellitus incidence in Beijing from 1995 to 2010: a retrospective multicenter study based on hospitalization data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gong, Chunxiu; Meng, Xi; Jiang, Yuwu; Wang, Xinli; Cui, Hong; Chen, Xiaobo

    2015-03-01

    The incidence of type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) is increasing rapidly worldwide for children of every age group. A retrospective analysis of hospital registration data from five tertiary hospitals in Beijing, China, identified 485 patients (210 boys, 275 girls) younger than 15 years of age with newly diagnosed T1DM between 1995 and 2010. From 1995 to 2010, the incidence of T1DM in patients 1995 to 2010, with rates growing at an accelerated pace since 2006. Based on recent trends, we project continued rapid growth in the number of new childhood T1DM cases in Beijing.

  2. Extreme Drought-induced Trend Changes in MODIS EVI Time Series in Yunnan, China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang, Kaicheng; Zhou, Tao; Zhao, Xiang

    2014-01-01

    Extreme climatic events triggered by global climate change are expected to increase significantly hence research into vegetation response is crucial to evaluate environmental risk. Yunnan province, locating in southwest China, experienced an extreme drought event (from autumn of 2009 to spring of 2010), with the lowest percentage rainfall anomaly and the longest non-rain days in the past 50 years. This study aimed to explore the characteristics and differences in the response to drought of four land cover types in Yunnan province, including forest, grassland, shrub, and cropland during the period 2001-2011. We used remote sensing data, MODIS-derived EVI (Enhanced Vegetation Index) to study the vegetation responses to this extreme drought event. The EVI time series were decomposed into trend, seasonal and remainder components using BFAST (Breaks For Additive Seasonal and Trend) which accounts for seasonality and enables the detection of trend changes within the time series. The preliminary results showed that: (1) BFAST proved to be capable of detecting drought-induced trend changes in EVI time series. (2) Changes in the trend component over time consisted of both gradual and abrupt changes. (3) Different spatial patterns were found for abrupt and gradual changes. (4) Cropland exhibited an abrupt change, due to its sensitivity to severe drought, while the forest seemed least affected by the extreme drought

  3. Time trends in physical activity in leisure time in the Danish population from 1987 to 2005

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Christina Bjørk; Thygesen, Lau Caspar; Helge, Jørn Wulff

    2010-01-01

    AIMS: To examine time trends in leisure-time physical activity in the Danish population from 1987 to 2005. METHODS: Analyses were based on four national representative population surveys of 4752 respondents in 1987, 4667 in 1994, 16,688 in 2000, and 14,566 in 2005. Associations between leisure......-time physical activity (dichotomised into high versus low) and temporal changes according to year of birth, age, and calendar-year were estimated in an age-period-cohort logistic regression model. Time trends in socioeconomic differences in physical activity were analysed by testing interaction terms. RESULTS......: The odds ratio (OR) of being highly physically active in leisure time in 2005 compared to 1987 was 1.6 (95% CI: 1.3-1.9) among men and 1.8 (95% CI: 1.5-2.2) among women. The age- and calendar-year-adjusted probability of being highly physically active increased with year of birth. The OR of being highly...

  4. Trend analysis using non-stationary time series clustering based on the finite element method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gorji Sefidmazgi, M.; Sayemuzzaman, M.; Homaifar, A.; Jha, M. K.; Liess, S.

    2014-05-01

    In order to analyze low-frequency variability of climate, it is useful to model the climatic time series with multiple linear trends and locate the times of significant changes. In this paper, we have used non-stationary time series clustering to find change points in the trends. Clustering in a multi-dimensional non-stationary time series is challenging, since the problem is mathematically ill-posed. Clustering based on the finite element method (FEM) is one of the methods that can analyze multidimensional time series. One important attribute of this method is that it is not dependent on any statistical assumption and does not need local stationarity in the time series. In this paper, it is shown how the FEM-clustering method can be used to locate change points in the trend of temperature time series from in situ observations. This method is applied to the temperature time series of North Carolina (NC) and the results represent region-specific climate variability despite higher frequency harmonics in climatic time series. Next, we investigated the relationship between the climatic indices with the clusters/trends detected based on this clustering method. It appears that the natural variability of climate change in NC during 1950-2009 can be explained mostly by AMO and solar activity.

  5. Ozone time scale decomposition and trend assessment from surface observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boleti, Eirini; Hueglin, Christoph; Takahama, Satoshi

    2017-04-01

    Emissions of ozone precursors have been regulated in Europe since around 1990 with control measures primarily targeting to industries and traffic. In order to understand how these measures have affected air quality, it is now important to investigate concentrations of tropospheric ozone in different types of environments, based on their NOx burden, and in different geographic regions. In this study, we analyze high quality data sets for Switzerland (NABEL network) and whole Europe (AirBase) for the last 25 years to calculate long-term trends of ozone concentrations. A sophisticated time scale decomposition method, called the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) (Huang,1998;Wu,2009), is used for decomposition of the different time scales of the variation of ozone, namely the long-term trend, seasonal and short-term variability. This allows subtraction of the seasonal pattern of ozone from the observations and estimation of long-term changes of ozone concentrations with lower uncertainty ranges compared to typical methodologies used. We observe that, despite the implementation of regulations, for most of the measurement sites ozone daily mean values have been increasing until around mid-2000s. Afterwards, we observe a decline or a leveling off in the concentrations; certainly a late effect of limitations in ozone precursor emissions. On the other hand, the peak ozone concentrations have been decreasing for almost all regions. The evolution in the trend exhibits some differences between the different types of measurement. In addition, ozone is known to be strongly affected by meteorology. In the applied approach, some of the meteorological effects are already captured by the seasonal signal and already removed in the de-seasonalized ozone time series. For adjustment of the influence of meteorology on the higher frequency ozone variation, a statistical approach based on Generalized Additive Models (GAM) (Hastie,1990;Wood,2006), which corrects for meteorological

  6. Gender, Time and Inequality: Trends in Women's and Men's Paid Work, Unpaid Work and Free Time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sayer, Liana C.

    2005-01-01

    This analysis uses nationally representative time diary data from 1965, 1975 and 1998 to examine trends and gender differences in time use. Women continue to do more household labor than men; however, men have substantially increased time in core household activities such as cooking, cleaning and daily child care. Nonetheless, a 30-minute-per-day…

  7. Trends in hospital admissions and surgical procedures for degenerative lumbar spine disease in England: a 15-year time-series study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sivasubramaniam, Vinothan; Patel, Hitesh C; Ozdemir, Baris A; Papadopoulos, Marios C

    2015-01-01

    Objectives Low back pain (LBP), from degenerative lumbar spine disease, represents a significant burden on healthcare resources. Studies worldwide report trends attributable to their country's specific demographics and healthcare system. Considering England's specific medico-socioeconomic conditions, we investigate recent trends in hospital admissions and procedures for LBP, and discuss the implications for the allocation of healthcare resources. Design Retrospective cohort study using Hospital Episode Statistics data relating to degenerative lumbar spine disease in England, between 1999 and 2013. Regression models were used to analyse trends. Outcome measures Trends in the number of admissions and procedures for LBP, mean patient age, gender and length of stay. Results Hospital admissions and procedures have increased significantly over the study period, from 127.09 to 216.16 and from 24.5 to 48.83 per 100 000, respectively, (pdisease, and highlight the need for services capable of dealing with the increased comorbidity burden associated with an ageing patient group. PMID:26671956

  8. Time trends in absolute and relative socioeconomic inequalities in leisure time physical inactivity in northern Sweden.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szilcz, Máté; Mosquera, Paola A; Sebastián, Miguel San; Gustafsson, Per E

    2018-02-01

    The aim was to investigate the time trends in educational, occupational, and income-related inequalities in leisure time physical inactivity in 2006, 2010, and 2014 in northern Swedish women and men. This study was based on data obtained from the repeated cross-sectional Health on Equal Terms survey of 2006, 2010, and 2014. The analytical sample consisted of 20,667 (2006), 31,787 (2010), and 21,613 (2014) individuals, aged 16-84. Logistic regressions were used to model the probability of physical inactivity given a set of explanatory variables. Slope index of inequality (SII) and relative index of inequality (RII) were used as summary measures of the social gradient in physical inactivity. The linear trend in inequalities and difference between gender and years were estimated by interaction analyses. The year 2010 displayed the highest physical inactivity inequalities for all socioeconomic position indicators, but educational and occupational inequalities decreased in 2014. However, significant positive linear trends were found in absolute and relative income inequalities. Moreover, women had significantly higher RII of education in physical inactivity in 2014 and significantly higher SII and RII of income in physical inactivity in 2010, than did men in the same years. The recent reduction in educational and occupational inequalities following the high inequalities around the time of the great recession in 2010 suggests that the current policies might be fairly effective. However, to eventually alleviate inequities in physical inactivity, the focus of the researchers and policymakers should be directed toward the widening trends of income inequalities in physical inactivity.

  9. Std trends in chengalpattu hospital

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krishnamurthy V

    1996-01-01

    Full Text Available A retrospective data analysis was carried out to find the trends in frequency and distribution of different STDs at Chengalpattu during 1988-1994. Of the 4549 patients who attended the clinic 3621 (79.6% were males and 928 (20.4% were females. The commonest STD was Chancroid (24.4% in men and Syphillis (29% in women. Balanoposthitis (11.4% ranked third among STDs in males. Though the STD attendance showed a declining trend, most diseases showed a constant distribution. The percentage composition of secondary and latent syphillis, Genital Warts, Genital Herpes and the Non-Venereal group showed an increased composition in recent years. Primary syphillis in females showed a definite declining trend. The HIV sero-positive detection rate was 2.06%. Of the 1116 patients screened for HIV antibody, 23 patients were detected sero-positive. Time Series Regression Analysis was used to predict the number of patients who would attend the STD clinic with various STDs in 1995 and 1996 to help in the understanding of the disease load and pattern in future, in resources management and in developing and evaluating preventive measures.

  10. Trends in Overall Mortality, and Timing and Cause of Death among Extremely Preterm Infants near the Limit of Viability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sung, Sein; Ahn, So Yoon; Park, Won Soon

    2017-01-01

    Objective To investigate the trends in mortality, as well as in the timing and cause of death, among extremely preterm infants at the limit of viability, and thus to identify the clinical factors that contribute to decreased mortality. Methods We retrospectively reviewed the medical records of 382 infants born at 23–26 weeks’ gestation; 124 of the infants were born between 2001 and 2005 (period I) and 258 were born between 2006 and 2011 (period II). We stratified the infants into two subgroups–“23–24 weeks” and “25–26 weeks”–and retrospectively analyzed the clinical characteristics and mortality in each group, as well as the timing and cause of death. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were done to identify the clinical factors associated with mortality. Results The overall mortality rate in period II was 16.7% (43/258), which was significantly lower than that in period I (30.6%; 38/124). For overall cause of death, there were significantly fewer deaths due to sepsis (2.4% [6/258] vs. 8.1% [10/124], respectively) and air-leak syndrome (0.8% [2/258] vs. 4.8% (6/124), respectively) during period II than during period I. Among the clinical factors of time period, 1-and 5-min Apgar score, antenatal steroid identified significant by univariate analyses. 5-min Apgar score and antenatal steroid use were significantly associated with mortality in multivariate analyses. Conclusion Improved mortality rate attributable to fewer deaths due to sepsis and air leak syndrome in the infants with 23–26 weeks’ gestation was associated with higher 5-minute Apgar score and more antenatal steroid use. PMID:28114330

  11. Time trends of US hospitalization for esophageal disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sonnenberg, Amnon

    2014-09-01

    The occurrence of reflux disease seems to be rising in the United States. The aim of the present study was to follow the time trends of hospitalization for gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) and other esophageal disease during the past 4 decades. US hospital utilization data were available for individual years from 1970 to 2010 through the National Hospital Discharge Survey. Esophageal diagnoses were stratified by their ninth revision of the International Classification of Diseases codes. Annual hospitalizations were expressed as rates per 100,000 living US population. GERD was by far the most common esophageal disorder resulting in hospitalization. However, in only 5% of instances did GERD-related diagnoses constitute the primary cause of hospitalization. Between 1970 and 2010 the rates of GERD-related hospitalizations increased in an exponential manner almost 10-fold. This rise affected both sex and all age groups alike. A 3-fold rise was noted in hospitalizations for esophageal adenocarcinoma. Other esophageal diagnoses, such as achalasia, dyskinesia, or stricture were characterized by falling or stable trends. US hospitalization data show a continued exponential rise in the occurrence of GERD without any signs of leveling off. These trends are likely to represent ongoing changes in the underlying incidence and prevalence of the disease.

  12. Retrospective monitoring of drug utilisation in cardiovascular ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This retrospective study was carried out to established drug prescribing trends in the management of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) in the cardiovascular unit of the Department of Medicine, University of Port Harcourt Teaching Hospital, Rivers State, Nigeria. 100 folders of patients with various CVDs were randomly ...

  13. Cranial irradiation in patients with brain metastasis. A retrospective study of timing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ampil, F.L.; Burton, G.V.; Mills, G.M.

    1999-01-01

    A retrospective study was conducted to determine the importance of the interval between diagnosis of brain metastasis (BRM) and cranial irradiation (CI). The charts of 92 patients with a known diagnosis of cancer and suspected BRM as shown on radioimaging studies were reviewed retrospectively. The median interval between diagnosis and the onset of CI for BRM was five days; one group of 48 individuals received CI within an interval of five days, and another group of 44 patients after an interval of five days. Symptom palliation, objective responses to CI and survival were evaluated in both groups. Neither symptomatic and objective responses to treatment nor overall survival differed significantly between the patient groups. These observations suggest that while CI is beneficial to most patients with BRM, its timing after the diagnosis of BRM may not seriously affect patient outcome. (author)

  14. Trend analysis using non-stationary time series clustering based on the finite element method

    OpenAIRE

    Gorji Sefidmazgi, M.; Sayemuzzaman, M.; Homaifar, A.; Jha, M. K.; Liess, S.

    2014-01-01

    In order to analyze low-frequency variability of climate, it is useful to model the climatic time series with multiple linear trends and locate the times of significant changes. In this paper, we have used non-stationary time series clustering to find change points in the trends. Clustering in a multi-dimensional non-stationary time series is challenging, since the problem is mathematically ill-posed. Clustering based on the finite element method (FEM) is one of the methods ...

  15. Canadian population trends in leisure-time physical activity levels, 1981-1998.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruce, Marny J; Katzmarzyk, Peter T

    2002-12-01

    Age, sex, geographic and temporal trends in leisure-time physical activity levels were examined using data from five national surveys conducted between 1981 and 1998. Physical activity energy expenditure (AEE) was higher among men compared to women, and in younger versus older adults. AEE increased from Eastern to Western Canada, with a significant temporal trend of increasing AEE. The prevalence of physical inactivity (expending importance of population-level physical activity surveillance and interventions.

  16. Detecting cognizable trends of gene expression in a time series ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    This poses difficulties in conducting formal statistical tests of significance of ... The proposed algorithm captured known 'time-trends' in the simulated data with a high probability ... to draw valid inferences even when the sample size is small.

  17. Examination of US puberty-timing data from 1940 to 1994 for secular trends

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Euling, Susan Y; Herman-Giddens, Marcia E; Lee, Peter A

    2008-01-01

    or girls. A majority of the panelists agreed that data are sufficient to suggest a trend toward an earlier breast development onset and menarche in girls but not for other female pubertal markers. A minority of panelists concluded that the current data on girls' puberty timing for any marker...... are insufficient. Almost all panelists concluded, on the basis of few studies and reliability issues of some male puberty markers, that current data for boys are insufficient to evaluate secular trends in male pubertal development. The panel agreed that altered puberty timing should be considered an adverse effect......Whether children, especially girls, are entering and progressing through puberty earlier today than in the mid-1900s has been debated. Secular trend analysis, based on available data, is limited by data comparability among studies in different populations, in different periods of time, and using...

  18. Time trends in axilla management among early breast cancer patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gondos, Adam; Jansen, Lina; Heil, Joerg

    2016-01-01

    Background We examined time trends in axilla management among patients with early breast cancer in European clinical settings. Material and methods EUROCANPlatform partners, including population-based and cancer center-specific registries, provided routinely available clinical cancer registry data...... for a comparative study of axillary management trends among patients with first non-metastatic breast cancer who were not selected for neoadjuvant therapy during the last decade. We used an additional short questionnaire to compare clinical care patterns in 2014. Results Patients treated in cancer centers were...... younger than population-based registry populations. Tumor size and lymph node status distributions varied little between settings or over time. In 2003, sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB) use varied between 26% and 81% for pT1 tumors, and between 2% and 68% for pT2 tumors. By 2010, SLNB use increased to 79...

  19. Clinical Malaria Transmission Trends and Its Association with Climatic Variables in Tubu Village, Botswana: A Retrospective Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chirebvu, Elijah; Chimbari, Moses John; Ngwenya, Barbara Ntombi; Sartorius, Benn

    2016-01-01

    Good knowledge on the interactions between climatic variables and malaria can be very useful for predicting outbreaks and preparedness interventions. We investigated clinical malaria transmission patterns and its temporal relationship with climatic variables in Tubu village, Botswana. A 5-year retrospective time series data analysis was conducted to determine the transmission patterns of clinical malaria cases at Tubu Health Post and its relationship with rainfall, flood discharge, flood extent, mean minimum, maximum and average temperatures. Data was obtained from clinical records and respective institutions for the period July 2005 to June 2010, presented graphically and analysed using the Univariate ANOVA and Pearson cross-correlation coefficient tests. Peak malaria season occurred between October and May with the highest cumulative incidence of clinical malaria cases being recorded in February. Most of the cases were individuals aged >5 years. Associations between the incidence of clinical malaria cases and several factors were strong at lag periods of 1 month; rainfall (r = 0.417), mean minimum temperature (r = 0.537), mean average temperature (r = 0.493); and at lag period of 6 months for flood extent (r = 0.467) and zero month for flood discharge (r = 0.497). The effect of mean maximum temperature was strongest at 2-month lag period (r = 0.328). Although malaria transmission patterns varied from year to year the trends were similar to those observed in sub-Saharan Africa. Age group >5 years experienced the greatest burden of clinical malaria probably due to the effects of the national malaria elimination programme. Rainfall, flood discharge and extent, mean minimum and mean average temperatures showed some correlation with the incidence of clinical malaria cases.

  20. Incidence of infective endocarditis in England, 2000-13: a secular trend, interrupted time-series analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dayer, Mark J; Jones, Simon; Prendergast, Bernard; Baddour, Larry M; Lockhart, Peter B; Thornhill, Martin H

    2015-03-28

    Antibiotic prophylaxis given before invasive dental procedures in patients at risk of developing infective endocarditis has historically been the focus of infective endocarditis prevention. Recent changes in antibiotic prophylaxis guidelines in the USA and Europe have substantially reduced the number of patients for whom antibiotic prophylaxis is recommended. In the UK, guidelines from the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) recommended complete cessation of antibiotic prophylaxis for prevention of infective endocarditis in March, 2008. We aimed to investigate changes in the prescribing of antibiotic prophylaxis and the incidence of infective endocarditis since the introduction of these guidelines. We did a retrospective secular trend study, analysed as an interrupted time series, to investigate the effect of antibiotic prophylaxis versus no prophylaxis on the incidence of infective endocarditis in England. We analysed data for the prescription of antibiotic prophylaxis from Jan 1, 2004, to March 31, 2013, and hospital discharge episode statistics for patients with a primary diagnosis of infective endocarditis from Jan 1, 2000, to March 31, 2013. We compared the incidence of infective endocarditis before and after the introduction of the NICE guidelines using segmented regression analysis of the interrupted time series. Prescriptions of antibiotic prophylaxis for the prevention of infective endocarditis fell substantially after introduction of the NICE guidance (mean 10,900 prescriptions per month [Jan 1, 2004, to March 31, 2008] vs 2236 prescriptions per month [April 1, 2008, to March 31, 2013], pinfective endocarditis increased significantly above the projected historical trend, by 0·11 cases per 10 million people per month (95% CI 0·05-0·16, pinfective endocarditis was significant for both individuals at high risk of infective endocarditis and those at lower risk. Although our data do not establish a causal association, prescriptions

  1. Diagnoses of Autism Spectrum Disorders in Germany: Time Trends in Administrative Prevalence and Diagnostic Stability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bachmann, Christian J.; Gerste, Bettina; Hoffmann, Falk

    2018-01-01

    For Germany, no data on trends in autism spectrum disorder diagnoses are available. The primary aim of this study was to establish the time trends in the administrative prevalence of autism spectrum disorder diagnoses. The second aim was to assess the stability of autism spectrum disorder diagnoses over time. We analysed administrative outpatient…

  2. Time trends in heavy drinking among middle-aged and older adults in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjørk, Christina; Thygesen, Lau Caspar; Vinther-Larsen, Mathilde

    2008-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Studies have indicated an increasing proportion of heavy drinking among middle-aged and older Danes. Trends in consumption are often extremely sensitive to influence from various components of the time trends but only few have explored the age, period and cohort-related influences...... that the proportion of heavy drinking women increases in younger birth cohorts. This trend is not observed for men as their drinking pattern mainly increase slightly by calendar year. CONCLUSIONS: Our Danish observations for older aged individuals correspond to the social and cultural changes in the 1960s and 1970s...

  3. United States forest disturbance trends observed with landsat time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeffrey G. Masek; Samuel N. Goward; Robert E. Kennedy; Warren B. Cohen; Gretchen G. Moisen; Karen Schleweiss; Chengquan. Huang

    2013-01-01

    Disturbance events strongly affect the composition, structure, and function of forest ecosystems; however, existing US land management inventories were not designed to monitor disturbance. To begin addressing this gap, the North American Forest Dynamics (NAFD) project has examined a geographic sample of 50 Landsat satellite image time series to assess trends in forest...

  4. Status and trend analysis of prophylactic usage of recombinant factor VIII in Chinese pediatric patients with hemophilia A: ReCare - a retrospective, phase IV, non-interventional study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Changgang; Zhang, Xinsheng; Zhao, Yongqiang; Wu, Runhui; Hu, Qun; Xu, Vicky; Sun, Jing; Yang, Renchi; Li, Xiaojing; Zhou, Rongfu; Lian, Shinmei; Gu, Jian; Wu, Junde; Hou, Qingsong

    2017-09-01

    No study has reported the status and chronological trend of prophylactic recombinant factor VIII (rFVIII) use in Chinese pediatric patients with hemophilia A (HA). We aimed to analyze the status and trend of rFVIII-containing prophylaxis in Chinese pediatric patients with HA. ReCARE (Retrospective study in Chinese pediatric hemophilia A patients with rFVIII contained REgular prophylaxis) was a retrospective study conducted in 12 hemophilia treatment centers across China. The trend of prophylaxis was evaluated by determining the mean duration of prophylaxis, mean injection frequency (per week), mean dose of each injection (IU/kg), mean total dose injected/week (IU) and proportion of rFVIII consumption relative to factor VIII (FVIII) consumption over the study period. We analyzed 183 male pediatric patients with HA (mean age, 7.1 ± 4.23 years), who received intermittent prophylaxis between 1 November 2007 and 31 May 2013. The mean duration of prophylaxis with rFVIII increased from 16.72 weeks in 2008 to 32.77 in 2012. Per injection dose of rFVIII increased significantly from 2008 to 2013 (25.89 to 28.31 IU/kg, p < .001). An increase was also reported in the mean total FVIII consumed (699.97 ± 173.25 IU in 2008 and 891.30 ± 730.341 in 2013) and mean proportion of rFVIII used (33.33 ± 57.73% in 2008 to 85.50 ± 29.077% in 2013). Our data revealed an overall improvement in treatment dosage and duration with an increase in the number of patients receiving prophylaxis. The total proportion of rFVIII also increased gradually indicating the development of economy and safety awareness. The trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (CT.gov identifier: NCT02263066).

  5. Empirical mode decomposition and k-nearest embedding vectors for timely analyses of antibiotic resistance trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teodoro, Douglas; Lovis, Christian

    2013-01-01

    Antibiotic resistance is a major worldwide public health concern. In clinical settings, timely antibiotic resistance information is key for care providers as it allows appropriate targeted treatment or improved empirical treatment when the specific results of the patient are not yet available. To improve antibiotic resistance trend analysis algorithms by building a novel, fully data-driven forecasting method from the combination of trend extraction and machine learning models for enhanced biosurveillance systems. We investigate a robust model for extraction and forecasting of antibiotic resistance trends using a decade of microbiology data. Our method consists of breaking down the resistance time series into independent oscillatory components via the empirical mode decomposition technique. The resulting waveforms describing intrinsic resistance trends serve as the input for the forecasting algorithm. The algorithm applies the delay coordinate embedding theorem together with the k-nearest neighbor framework to project mappings from past events into the future dimension and estimate the resistance levels. The algorithms that decompose the resistance time series and filter out high frequency components showed statistically significant performance improvements in comparison with a benchmark random walk model. We present further qualitative use-cases of antibiotic resistance trend extraction, where empirical mode decomposition was applied to highlight the specificities of the resistance trends. The decomposition of the raw signal was found not only to yield valuable insight into the resistance evolution, but also to produce novel models of resistance forecasters with boosted prediction performance, which could be utilized as a complementary method in the analysis of antibiotic resistance trends.

  6. Leprosy trends in Zambia 1991-2009

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kapata, Nathan; Chanda-Kapata, Pascalina; Grobusch, Martin Peter; O'Grady, Justin; Bates, Matthew; Mwaba, Peter; Zumla, Alimuddin

    2012-01-01

    To document leprosy trends in Zambia over the past two decades to ascertain the importance of leprosy as a health problem in Zambia. Retrospective study covering the period 1991-2009 of routine national leprosy surveillance data, published national programme review reports and desk reviews of

  7. Age trends in 30 day hospital readmissions: US national retrospective analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berry, Jay G; Gay, James C; Joynt Maddox, Karen; Coleman, Eric A; Bucholz, Emily M; O’Neill, Margaret R; Blaine, Kevin; Hall, Matthew

    2018-01-01

    Abstract Objective To assess trends in and risk factors for readmission to hospital across the age continuum. Design Retrospective analysis. Setting and participants 31 729 762 index hospital admissions for all conditions in 2013 from the US Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality Nationwide Readmissions Database. Main outcome measure 30 day, all cause, unplanned hospital readmissions. Odds of readmission were compared by patients’ age in one year epochs with logistic regression, accounting for sex, payer, length of stay, discharge disposition, number of chronic conditions, reason for and severity of admission, and data clustering by hospital. The middle (45 years) of the age range (0-90+ years) was selected as the age reference group. Results The 30 day unplanned readmission rate following all US index admissions was 11.6% (n=3 678 018). Referenced by patients aged 45 years, the adjusted odds ratio for readmission increased between ages 16 and 20 years (from 0.70 (95% confidence interval 0.68 to 0.71) to 1.04 (1.02 to 1.06)), remained elevated between ages 21 and 44 years (range 1.02 (1.00 to 1.03) to 1.12 (1.10 to 1.14)), steadily decreased between ages 46 and 64 years (range 1.02 (1.00 to 1.04) to 0.91 (0.90 to 0.93)), and decreased abruptly at age 65 years (0.78 (0.77 to 0.79)), after which the odds remained relatively constant with advancing age. Across all ages, multiple chronic conditions were associated with the highest adjusted odds of readmission (for example, 3.67 (3.64 to 3.69) for six or more versus no chronic conditions). Among children, young adults, and middle aged adults, mental health was one of the most common reasons for index admissions that had high adjusted readmission rates (≥75th centile). Conclusions The likelihood of readmission was elevated for children transitioning to adulthood, children and younger adults with mental health disorders, and patients of all ages with multiple chronic conditions. Further attention to the

  8. Hybrid model for forecasting time series with trend, seasonal and salendar variation patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suhartono; Rahayu, S. P.; Prastyo, D. D.; Wijayanti, D. G. P.; Juliyanto

    2017-09-01

    Most of the monthly time series data in economics and business in Indonesia and other Moslem countries not only contain trend and seasonal, but also affected by two types of calendar variation effects, i.e. the effect of the number of working days or trading and holiday effects. The purpose of this research is to develop a hybrid model or a combination of several forecasting models to predict time series that contain trend, seasonal and calendar variation patterns. This hybrid model is a combination of classical models (namely time series regression and ARIMA model) and/or modern methods (artificial intelligence method, i.e. Artificial Neural Networks). A simulation study was used to show that the proposed procedure for building the hybrid model could work well for forecasting time series with trend, seasonal and calendar variation patterns. Furthermore, the proposed hybrid model is applied for forecasting real data, i.e. monthly data about inflow and outflow of currency at Bank Indonesia. The results show that the hybrid model tend to provide more accurate forecasts than individual forecasting models. Moreover, this result is also in line with the third results of the M3 competition, i.e. the hybrid model on average provides a more accurate forecast than the individual model.

  9. Time-Trend in Epidemiological and Pathological Features of Schistosoma-Associated Bladder Cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    ZAGHLOUL, M.S.; EL-BARADIE, M.; NAZMY, M.; NOUH, A.; MONEER, M.; YOUNIS, A.

    2008-01-01

    To investigate the different emerging trends in the features of bladder cancer along 17 years. Patients and Methods: During a 17-year period (1988- 2004), 5071 epithelial bladder cancer patients underwent radical cystectomy at the National Cancer Institute (NCI), Cairo University, Egypt. The time was divided into 3 time periods to detect changes of the clinico pathologic features of patients in these periods. Results: There was a significant progressive increase in the patients' age with time and decrease in squamous/ transitional ratio, with transient increase in male predominance during the 2nd time period. Moreover, there was a decrease in the well differentiated (grade 1) tumor (p<0.001) and an increase in the frequency of pelvic nodal involvement (p<0.001). Transitional cell carcinoma (TCC) patients were significantly older than those with squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) (p<0.001). Progressive increase of age with time was evident in TCC, SCC and adenocarcinoma patients. Male to female ratio changed significantly in TCC and SCC. Conclusion: Time trend was confirmed with relative decrease in frequency of SCC and increase of TCC with changes in their pathological details. The differences between their characteristics and that of the Western countries are decreasing.

  10. Time trends in Staphylococcus aureus bacteremia, 1988-2010, in a tertiary center with high methicillin resistance rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yahav, Dafna; Shaked, Hila; Goldberg, Elad; Yassin, Sharief; Eliakim-Raz, Noa; Paul, Mical; Bishara, Jihad; Leibovici, Leonard

    2017-02-01

    Changes in the epidemiology of Staphylococcus aureus bacteremia (SAB) have been described in recent decades. Decreased mortality has been reported over time, mostly from countries with low methicillin resistance rates. We aimed to describe time trends in SAB in a tertiary center with high methicillin resistance rates. We retrospectively analyzed 1692 patients with SAB, and compared between three time periods: 1988-1994 (342 patients), 1998-2004 (597 patients) and 2005-2010 (753 patients). In our cohort, 30 days mortality increased significantly with time, reaching 42.9 % during 2005-2010. The latter period was characterized by higher rates of older patients (35.1 % aged 80 years and older), with lower functional capacity (46.5 % bedridden) and higher rates of comorbidities (33.6 % renal disease, 24.8 % heart failure, 19.0 % dementia). These patients were more likely to be ventilated (18.7 %) and carry a urinary catheter at presentation (46.6 %); present with septic shock (15.9 %) and have pneumonia (20.5 %) or endocarditis (7.2 %) as source. Similar characteristics were found among patients younger than 50 years and with independent functional status. No significant increase in methicillin resistant Staph aureus (MRSA) rates or inappropriate empirical therapy was demonstrated during 2005-2010. In our cohort, increased mortality in recent years in patients with SAB can be explained by baseline condition of patients. MRSA or inappropriate empiric therapy did not explain the increase in mortality. The patients afflicted with SAB changed over time. Epidemiology and outcomes of SAB vary with time and according to geographical location. External validity of studies should be taken into consideration.

  11. Preterm birth time trends in Europe: A study of 19 countries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zeitlin, J.; Szamotulska, K.; Drewniak, N.; Mohangoo, A.D.; Chalmers, J.; Sakkeus, L.; Irgens, L.; Gatt, M.; Gissler, M.; Blondel, B.

    2013-01-01

    Objective To investigate time trends in preterm birth in Europe by multiplicity, gestational age, and onset of delivery. Design Analysis of aggregate data from routine sources. Setting Nineteen European countries. Population Live births in 1996, 2000, 2004, and 2008. Methods Annual risk ratios of

  12. Dosimetric monitoring at time of Chernobyl clean-up. A retrospective view

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chumak, V.V.; Bakhanova, E.V.; Musijachenko, N.V.; Krjuchkov, V.P.

    2000-01-01

    Although at time of the accident many thousands of individuals were subjected to personal dosimetric monitoring, a status of dosimetric support of clean-up activities performed in 1986-1987 remains one of the most uncertain radiological issues related to Chernobyl accident. It is known that the scope, practical coverage and methodologies of dosimetry at time of the accident significantly varied. Unfortunately, the dose records available now in a number registries and databases are lacking direct indications of the methods of dosimetry, locations of work and tasks performed by liquidators. Moreover, data record linkage in many cases is problematic due to lack of unique identifiers in the databases of concern. However, this information, collected in course of dosimetric monitoring is extremely valuable for epidemiological consideration of this cohort and, therefore, cannot be neglected because of problems with strait forward application of this data. Retrospective consideration of dosimetric monitoring data was conducted along several lines. First, data sets (in some cases impersonal), related to the known dosimetric practices were studied in order to determine regularities in their dose distributions, evaluate possible distortions caused by extraneous admixtures to dose arrays and evaluate possible contribution of falsified dose records. Another effort was directed towards individualization of information regarding affiliation and tasks of the liquidators included into the State Chernobyl Registry (SCR), which is, essentially, the main pool of subjects for observation in the framework of post Chernobyl epidemiological studies. The SCR in its original shape was missing this crucial information. In order to recover this information gap, a wide scale postal survey of liquidators was undertaken. Those persons who are included into the State Chernobyl Registry and have official dose records were asked to respond to a simple five-entry questionnaire, dealing with their

  13. Time trend of malaria in relation to climate variability in Papua New Guinea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolam, Joel; Inape, Kasis

    2016-01-01

    Objectives This study was conducted to describe the regional malaria incidence in relation to the geographic and climatic conditions and describe the effect of altitude on the expansion of malaria over the last decade in Papua New Guinea. Methods Malaria incidence was estimated in five provinces from 1996 to 2008 using national health surveillance data. Time trend of malaria incidence was compared with rainfall and minimum/maximum temperature. In the Eastern Highland Province, time trend of malaria incidence over the study period was stratified by altitude. Spatio-temporal pattern of malaria was analyzed. Results Nationwide, malaria incidence was stationary. Regionally, the incidence increased markedly in the highland region (292.0/100000/yr, p =0.021), and remained stationary in the other regions. Seasonality of the malaria incidence was related with rainfall. Decreasing incidence of malaria was associated with decreasing rainfall in the southern coastal region, whereas it was not evident in the northern coastal region. In the Eastern Highland Province, malaria incidence increased in areas below 1700 m, with the rate of increase being steeper at higher altitudes. Conclusions Increasing trend of malaria incidence was prominent in the highland region of Papua New Guinea, while long-term trend was dependent upon baseline level of rainfall in coastal regions. PMID:26987606

  14. Time trend of malaria in relation to climate variability in Papua New Guinea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Jae-Won; Cheong, Hae-Kwan; Honda, Yasushi; Ha, Mina; Kim, Ho; Kolam, Joel; Inape, Kasis; Mueller, Ivo

    2016-01-01

    This study was conducted to describe the regional malaria incidence in relation to the geographic and climatic conditions and describe the effect of altitude on the expansion of malaria over the last decade in Papua New Guinea. Malaria incidence was estimated in five provinces from 1996 to 2008 using national health surveillance data. Time trend of malaria incidence was compared with rainfall and minimum/maximum temperature. In the Eastern Highland Province, time trend of malaria incidence over the study period was stratified by altitude. Spatio-temporal pattern of malaria was analyzed. Nationwide, malaria incidence was stationary. Regionally, the incidence increased markedly in the highland region (292.0/100000/yr, p =0.021), and remained stationary in the other regions. Seasonality of the malaria incidence was related with rainfall. Decreasing incidence of malaria was associated with decreasing rainfall in the southern coastal region, whereas it was not evident in the northern coastal region. In the Eastern Highland Province, malaria incidence increased in areas below 1700 m, with the rate of increase being steeper at higher altitudes. Increasing trend of malaria incidence was prominent in the highland region of Papua New Guinea, while long-term trend was dependent upon baseline level of rainfall in coastal regions.

  15. Time trend of malaria in relation to climate variability in Papua New Guinea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jae-Won Park

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Objectives This study was conducted to describe the regional malaria incidence in relation to the geographic and climatic conditions and describe the effect of altitude on the expansion of malaria over the last decade in Papua New Guinea. Methods Malaria incidence was estimated in five provinces from 1996 to 2008 using national health surveillance data. Time trend of malaria incidence was compared with rainfall and minimum/maximum temperature. In the Eastern Highland Province, time trend of malaria incidence over the study period was stratified by altitude. Spatio-temporal pattern of malaria was analyzed. Results Nationwide, malaria incidence was stationary. Regionally, the incidence increased markedly in the highland region (292.0/100000/yr, p =0.021, and remained stationary in the other regions. Seasonality of the malaria incidence was related with rainfall. Decreasing incidence of malaria was associated with decreasing rainfall in the southern coastal region, whereas it was not evident in the northern coastal region. In the Eastern Highland Province, malaria incidence increased in areas below 1700 m, with the rate of increase being steeper at higher altitudes. Conclusions Increasing trend of malaria incidence was prominent in the highland region of Papua New Guinea, while long-term trend was dependent upon baseline level of rainfall in coastal regions.

  16. A Retrospective Look at Website Accessibility over Time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hackett, Stephanie; Parmanto, Bambang; Zeng, Xiaoming

    2005-01-01

    Websites were retrospectively analysed to study the effects that technological advances in web design have had on accessibility for persons with disabilities. A random sample of general websites and a convenience sample of US government websites were studied and compared for the years 1997-2002. Web accessibility barrier (WAB) and complexity…

  17. Time trends of perfluorinated compounds from the sediment core of Tokyo Bay, Japan (1950s-2004)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zushi, Yasuyuki; Tamada, Masafumi; Kanai, Yutaka; Masunaga, Shigeki

    2010-01-01

    Perfluorinated compounds (PFCs) were detected in sediment core samples collected in Tokyo Bay to reveal their time trends. The core sample deposited during 1950s-2004 was divided into two- to three-year intervals and the concentrations of 24 types of PFCs were determined. Perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) decreased gradually from the early 1990s and its precursor decreased rapidly in the late 1990s, whereas perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) increased rapidly. The observed trends were regarded as a reflection of the shift from perfluorooctyl sulfonyl fluoride (PFOSF)-based products to telomer-based products after the phaseout of PFOSF-based products in 2001. The branched isomers of perfluoroundecanoic acid (PFUnDA) and perfluorotridecanoic acid (PFTrDA) were detected in the sample with its ratio of linear-isomer/branched-isomer concentrations decreasing. In this study, we revealed that the sediment core can serve as a tool for reconstructing the past pollution trend of PFCs and can provide interesting evidence concerning their environmental dynamics and time trend. - This study reports the time trends of the concentrations of 24 species of PFCs, including FTCA, FTUCA and FOSAA, in a sediment core of Tokyo Bay, Japan.

  18. Nonparametric trend estimation in the presence of fractal noise: application to fMRI time-series analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Afshinpour, Babak; Hossein-Zadeh, Gholam-Ali; Soltanian-Zadeh, Hamid

    2008-06-30

    Unknown low frequency fluctuations called "trend" are observed in noisy time-series measured for different applications. In some disciplines, they carry primary information while in other fields such as functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) they carry nuisance effects. In all cases, however, it is necessary to estimate them accurately. In this paper, a method for estimating trend in the presence of fractal noise is proposed and applied to fMRI time-series. To this end, a partly linear model (PLM) is fitted to each time-series. The parametric and nonparametric parts of PLM are considered as contributions of hemodynamic response and trend, respectively. Using the whitening property of wavelet transform, the unknown components of the model are estimated in the wavelet domain. The results of the proposed method are compared to those of other parametric trend-removal approaches such as spline and polynomial models. It is shown that the proposed method improves activation detection and decreases variance of the estimated parameters relative to the other methods.

  19. Trend Estimation and Regression Analysis in Climatological Time Series: An Application of Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Visser, H.; Molenaar, J.

    1995-05-01

    The detection of trends in climatological data has become central to the discussion on climate change due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. To prove detection, a method is needed (i) to make inferences on significant rises or declines in trends, (ii) to take into account natural variability in climate series, and (iii) to compare output from GCMs with the trends in observed climate data. To meet these requirements, flexible mathematical tools are needed. A structural time series model is proposed with which a stochastic trend, a deterministic trend, and regression coefficients can be estimated simultaneously. The stochastic trend component is described using the class of ARIMA models. The regression component is assumed to be linear. However, the regression coefficients corresponding with the explanatory variables may be time dependent to validate this assumption. The mathematical technique used to estimate this trend-regression model is the Kaiman filter. The main features of the filter are discussed.Examples of trend estimation are given using annual mean temperatures at a single station in the Netherlands (1706-1990) and annual mean temperatures at Northern Hemisphere land stations (1851-1990). The inclusion of explanatory variables is shown by regressing the latter temperature series on four variables: Southern Oscillation index (SOI), volcanic dust index (VDI), sunspot numbers (SSN), and a simulated temperature signal, induced by increasing greenhouse gases (GHG). In all analyses, the influence of SSN on global temperatures is found to be negligible. The correlations between temperatures and SOI and VDI appear to be negative. For SOI, this correlation is significant, but for VDI it is not, probably because of a lack of volcanic eruptions during the sample period. The relation between temperatures and GHG is positive, which is in agreement with the hypothesis of a warming climate because of increasing levels of greenhouse gases. The prediction performance of

  20. Trend analysis of time-series data: A novel method for untargeted metabolite discovery

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peters, S.; Janssen, H.-G.; Vivó-Truyols, G.

    2010-01-01

    A new strategy for biomarker discovery is presented that uses time-series metabolomics data. Data sets from samples analysed at different time points after an intervention are searched for compounds that show a meaningful trend following the intervention. Obviously, this requires new data-analytical

  1. Geographic Variations and Time Trends in Cancer Treatments in Taiwan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsu, Jason C; Chang, Sheng-Mao; Lu, Christine Y

    2017-08-02

    Targeted therapies have become important treatment options for cancer care in many countries. This study aimed to examine recent trends in utilization of antineoplastic drugs, particularly the use of targeted therapies for treatment of cancer, by geographic region in Taiwan (northern, midwestern, southern, and eastern regions and the outer islands). This was a retrospective observational study of antineoplastic agents using 2009-2012 quarterly claims data from Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database. Yearly market shares by prescription volume and costs for targeted therapies among total antineoplastic agents by region were estimated. We used multivariate regression model and ANOVA to examine variations in utilization of targeted therapies between geographic regions and used ARIMA models to estimate longitudinal trends. Population-adjusted use and costs of antineoplastic drugs (including targeted therapies) were highest in the southern region of Taiwan and lowest in the outer islands. We found a 4-fold difference in use of antineoplastic drugs and a 49-fold difference in use of targeted therapies between regions if the outer islands were included. There were minimal differences in use of antineoplastic drugs between other regions with about a 2-fold difference in use of targeted therapies. Without considering the outer islands, the market share by prescription volume and costs of targeted therapies increased almost 2-fold (1.84-1.90) and 1.5-fold (1.26-1.61) respectively between 2009 and 2012. Furthermore, region was not significantly associated with use of antineoplastic agents or use of targeted therapies after adjusting for confounders. Region was associated with costs of antineoplastic agents but it was not associated with costs of targeted therapies after confounding adjustments. Use of antineoplastic drugs overall and use of targeted therapies for treatment of cancer varied somewhat between regions in Taiwan; use was notably low in the outer

  2. Onabotulinum toxin A dosage trends over time for adductor spasmodic dysphonia: A 15-year experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Christopher G; Novakovic, Daniel; Mor, Niv; Blitzer, Andrew

    2016-03-01

    Although onabotulinum neurotoxin A (BoNTA) has been used for over three decades for the treatment of adductor spasmodic dysphonia, no study has been performed to look at the trend of BoNTA dosages across time. The goal of this study is to evaluate the dosage trends to determine if the dosage necessary for voice improvement in patients increases over time. Charts were reviewed for patients with 15 years or more of experience. Linear regression analysis was performed to determine correlation coefficients and trends. Fifty-five patients receiving BoNTA injections by the senior author (a.b.) for over 15 years were evaluated. Thirty-nine patients (82% female) met inclusion criteria. Patients received injections over an average of 18.6 years ± 1.36 years, with the longest follow-up of 21.5 years. Of 39 patients, 16 (41%) had a negative correlation coefficient (Pearson's r) suggesting a decrease over time, whereas 23 (59%) had a positive correlation coefficient suggesting an increase over time. The mean correlation coefficient was 0.139 ± 0.534 and P  0.05 in 20 patients. R(2) for all patients were less than 0.75. Onabotulinum neurotoxin A injection dosage trends vary depending on the individual over time. Overall, the dose range appears to be stable in the majority of patients, suggesting that tolerance does not play a significant part in dose variation over time. 4. Laryngoscope, 126:678-681, 2016. © 2015 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

  3. The effects of platelet-rich plasma on recovery time and aesthetic outcome in facial rejuvenation : preliminary retrospective observations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Willemsen, Joep C N; van der Lei, Berend; Vermeulen, Karin M; Stevens, Hieronymus P J D

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND: This study focused on the possible effect of platelet-rich plasma (PRP) on recovery time and aesthetic outcome after facial rejuvenation. We conducted a retrospective analysis with regard to recovery time and the aesthetic improvement after treatment among four groups of patients: those

  4. Orthopedic Surgery among Patients with Rheumatoid Arthritis: A Population-based study to Identify Risk factors, Sex differences, and Time trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richter, Michael; Crowson, Cynthia S; Matteson, Eric L; Makol, Ashima

    2017-12-20

    To identify risk factors for large joint (LJS) versus small joint surgery (SJS) in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and evaluate trends in surgery rates over time. A retrospective medical record review was performed of all orthopedic surgeries following first fulfillment of 1987 ACR criteria for adult-onset RA among residents of Olmsted County, Minnesota, USA in 1980-2013. Risk factors were examined using Cox models adjusted for age, sex and calendar year of RA incidence. Trends in incidence of joint surgeries were examined using Poisson regression models. A total of 1077 patients with RA (mean age 56 years, 69% female, 66% seropositive) were followed for a median of 10.7 years during which 112 (90 women) underwent at least one SJS and 204 (141 women) underwent at least one LJS. Risk factors included advanced age, rheumatoid factor and anti-CCP antibody positivity for both SJS and LJS, and BMI≥30 kg/m 2 for LJS. Risk factors for SJS and LJS at any time during follow-up included the presence of radiographic erosions, large joint swelling, and methotrexate use. SJS rates decreased by calendar year of incidence (hazard ratio 0.53; p=0.001), with significant decline in SJS after 1995. The cumulative incidence of SJS was higher in women than men (p=0.008). In recent years, there has been a significant decline in rates of SJS but not LJS in patients with RA. The incidence of SJS is higher among women. Traditional RA risk factors are strong predictors for SJS and LJS. Increasing age and obesity are predictive of LJS. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  5. Fast or slow food? Explaining trends in food-related time in the Netherlands, 1975-2005

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mandemakers, J.J.; Roeters, A.

    2015-01-01

    The current study analysed trends in the time spent preparing and consuming food and the frequency of outsourcing (going out for dinner and take-out) in the Netherlands from 1975 to 2005. We investigated differences between trends on week and weekend days and for different socio-demographic groups.

  6. Trends in preterm birth in singleton deliveries in a Hong Kong population

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hui, Annie S. Y.; Lao, Terence T.; Leung, Tak Yeung; Schaaf, Jelle M.; Sahota, Daljit S.

    2014-01-01

    To examine trends in preterm birth and its relationship with perinatal mortality in Hong Kong. In a retrospective cohort study, data were reviewed from singletons delivered between 1995 and 2011 at a university teaching hospital. Trends in preterm birth (between 24 and 36 weeks of pregnancy),

  7. Time Delay Systems Methods, Applications and New Trends

    CERN Document Server

    Vyhlídal, Tomáš; Niculescu, Silviu-Iulian; Pepe, Pierdomenico

    2012-01-01

    This volume is concerned with the control and dynamics of time delay systems; a research field with at least six-decade long history that has been very active especially in the past two decades. In parallel to the new challenges emerging from engineering, physics, mathematics, and economics, the volume covers several new directions including topology induced stability, large-scale interconnected systems, roles of networks in stability, and new trends in predictor-based control and consensus dynamics. The associated applications/problems are described by highly complex models, and require solving inverse problems as well as the development of new theories, mathematical tools, numerically-tractable algorithms for real-time control. The volume, which is targeted to present these developments in this rapidly evolving field, captures a careful selection of the most recent papers contributed by experts and collected under five parts: (i) Methodology: From Retarded to Neutral Continuous Delay Models, (ii) Systems, S...

  8. HYPE: a WFD tool for the identification of significant and sustained upward trends in groundwater time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopez, Benjamin; Croiset, Nolwenn; Laurence, Gourcy

    2014-05-01

    The Water Framework Directive 2006/11/CE (WFD) on the protection of groundwater against pollution and deterioration asks Member States to identify significant and sustained upward trends in all bodies or groups of bodies of groundwater that are characterised as being at risk in accordance with Annex II to Directive 2000/60/EC. The Directive indicates that the procedure for the identification of significant and sustained upward trends must be based on a statistical method. Moreover, for significant increases of concentrations of pollutants, trend reversals are identified as being necessary. This means to be able to identify significant trend reversals. A specific tool, named HYPE, has been developed in order to help stakeholders working on groundwater trend assessment. The R encoded tool HYPE provides statistical analysis of groundwater time series. It follows several studies on the relevancy of the use of statistical tests on groundwater data series (Lopez et al., 2011) and other case studies on the thematic (Bourgine et al., 2012). It integrates the most powerful and robust statistical tests for hydrogeological applications. HYPE is linked to the French national database on groundwater data (ADES). So monitoring data gathered by the Water Agencies can be directly processed. HYPE has two main modules: - a characterisation module, which allows to visualize time series. HYPE calculates the main statistical characteristics and provides graphical representations; - a trend module, which identifies significant breaks, trends and trend reversals in time series, providing result table and graphical representation (cf figure). Additional modules are also implemented to identify regional and seasonal trends and to sample time series in a relevant way. HYPE has been used successfully in 2012 by the French Water Agencies to satisfy requirements of the WFD, concerning characterization of groundwater bodies' qualitative status and evaluation of the risk of non-achievement of

  9. A Time Series Model for Assessing the Trend and Forecasting the Road Traffic Accident Mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yousefzadeh-Chabok, Shahrokh; Ranjbar-Taklimie, Fatemeh; Malekpouri, Reza; Razzaghi, Alireza

    2016-09-01

    Road traffic accident (RTA) is one of the main causes of trauma and known as a growing public health concern worldwide, especially in developing countries. Assessing the trend of fatalities in the past years and forecasting it enables us to make the appropriate planning for prevention and control. This study aimed to assess the trend of RTAs and forecast it in the next years by using time series modeling. In this historical analytical study, the RTA mortalities in Zanjan Province, Iran, were evaluated during 2007 - 2013. The time series analyses including Box-Jenkins models were used to assess the trend of accident fatalities in previous years and forecast it for the next 4 years. The mean age of the victims was 37.22 years (SD = 20.01). From a total of 2571 deaths, 77.5% (n = 1992) were males and 22.5% (n = 579) were females. The study models showed a descending trend of fatalities in the study years. The SARIMA (1, 1, 3) (0, 1, 0) 12 model was recognized as a best fit model in forecasting the trend of fatalities. Forecasting model also showed a descending trend of traffic accident mortalities in the next 4 years. There was a decreasing trend in the study and the future years. It seems that implementation of some interventions in the recent decade has had a positive effect on the decline of RTA fatalities. Nevertheless, there is still a need to pay more attention in order to prevent the occurrence and the mortalities related to traffic accidents.

  10. Analysis of monotonic greening and browning trends from global NDVI time-series

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jong, de R.; Bruin, de S.; Wit, de A.J.W.; Schaepman, M.E.; Dent, D.L.

    2011-01-01

    Remotely sensed vegetation indices are widely used to detect greening and browning trends; especially the global coverage of time-series normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data which are available from 1981. Seasonality and serial auto-correlation in the data have previously been dealt

  11. Estimating a population cumulative incidence under calendar time trends

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Stefan N; Overgaard, Morten; Andersen, Per K

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The risk of a disease or psychiatric disorder is frequently measured by the age-specific cumulative incidence. Cumulative incidence estimates are often derived in cohort studies with individuals recruited over calendar time and with the end of follow-up governed by a specific date...... by calendar time trends, the total sample Kaplan-Meier and Aalen-Johansen estimators do not provide useful estimates of the general risk in the target population. We present some alternatives to this type of analysis. RESULTS: We show how a proportional hazards model may be used to extrapolate disease risk...... estimates if proportionality is a reasonable assumption. If not reasonable, we instead advocate that a more useful description of the disease risk lies in the age-specific cumulative incidence curves across strata given by time of entry or perhaps just the end of follow-up estimates across all strata...

  12. Time trends in physical activity from 1982 to 2012 in Finland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borodulin, K; Harald, K; Jousilahti, P; Laatikainen, T; Männistö, S; Vartiainen, E

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this study was to examine population trends from 1982 to 2012 in Finland for leisure time physical activity (LTPA), commuting physical activity (CPA), occupational physical activity (OPA), and total physical activity. Furthermore, time trends in physical activity by educational levels and body mass index (BMI) categories were explored. Data were collected in independent cross-sectional population surveys, implemented every 5 years from 1982 to 2012. The data comprised 21,903 men and 24,311 women. Participants underwent a health examination and filled in questionnaires. Information on LTPA, CPA, and OPA was used both separately and combined to create an index of total physical activity. Between 1982 and 2012, high LTPA has increased in men (from 21% to 33%) and women (from 12% to 27%). High CPA and high OPA have decreased in men (from 17% to 12% and from 48% to 36%, respectively) and women (from 30% to 20% and from 26% to 21%, respectively). Total physical activity has remained fairly stable. Differences by education and BMI have increased, particularly for LTPA. Marked changes in physical activity have taken place over time. Differences in LTPA and OPA have grown wider across educational groups and BMI categories. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  13. Time trend by region of suicides and suicidal thoughts among Greenland Inuit

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjerregaard, Peter; Larsen, Christina Viskum Lytken

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Suicides remain a major public health problem in Greenland. Their increase coincides with the modernization since 1950. Serious suicidal thoughts are reported by a significant proportion of participants in countrywide surveys. OBJECTIVE: To analyze the time trend by region of suicides...... and suicidal thoughts among the Inuit in Greenland. DESIGN: Data included the Greenland registry of causes of death for 1970-2011 and 2 cross-sectional health surveys carried out in 1993-1994 and 2005-2010 with 1,580 and 3,102 Inuit participants, respectively. RESULTS: Suicide rates were higher among men than...... women while the prevalence of suicidal thoughts was higher among women. Suicide rates for men and women together increased from 1960 to 1980 and have remained around 100 per 100,000 person-years since then. The regional pattern of time trend for suicide rates varied with an early peak in the capital...

  14. International trends in health science librarianship: Part 7. Taking stock.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murphy, Jeannette

    2013-09-01

    This article reviews the six papers published so far in this series on global trends in health science librarianship. Starting with a retrospective review of trends in the twentieth-century, the series has covered 6 different regions, with contributions from 21 countries. As this is the half-way point in the survey, it seems a useful point at which to reflect on what has emerged so far. The method of content analysis is used to identify key trends. The top five trends are explored. © 2013 The author. Health Information and Libraries Journal © 2013 Health Libraries Group.

  15. Time-resolved computed tomography of the liver: retrospective, multi-phase image reconstruction derived from volumetric perfusion imaging

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fischer, Michael A.; Kartalis, Nikolaos; Aspelin, Peter; Albiin, Nils; Brismar, Torkel B. [Karolinska University Hospital, Division of Medical Imaging and Technology, Department of Clinical Science, Intervention and Technology (CLINTEC), Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm (Sweden); Leidner, Bertil; Svensson, Anders [Karolinska University Hospital, Division of Medical Imaging and Technology, Department of Clinical Science, Intervention and Technology (CLINTEC), Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm (Sweden); Karolinska University Hospital Huddinge, Department of Radiology, Stockholm (Sweden)

    2014-01-15

    To assess feasibility and image quality (IQ) of a new post-processing algorithm for retrospective extraction of an optimised multi-phase CT (time-resolved CT) of the liver from volumetric perfusion imaging. Sixteen patients underwent clinically indicated perfusion CT using 4D spiral mode of dual-source 128-slice CT. Three image sets were reconstructed: motion-corrected and noise-reduced (MCNR) images derived from 4D raw data; maximum and average intensity projections (time MIP/AVG) of the arterial/portal/portal-venous phases and all phases (total MIP/ AVG) derived from retrospective fusion of dedicated MCNR split series. Two readers assessed the IQ, detection rate and evaluation time; one reader assessed image noise and lesion-to-liver contrast. Time-resolved CT was feasible in all patients. Each post-processing step yielded a significant reduction of image noise and evaluation time, maintaining lesion-to-liver contrast. Time MIPs/AVGs showed the highest overall IQ without relevant motion artefacts and best depiction of arterial and portal/portal-venous phases respectively. Time MIPs demonstrated a significantly higher detection rate for arterialised liver lesions than total MIPs/AVGs and the raw data series. Time-resolved CT allows data from volumetric perfusion imaging to be condensed into an optimised multi-phase liver CT, yielding a superior IQ and higher detection rate for arterialised liver lesions than the raw data series. (orig.)

  16. Time trend by region of suicides and suicidal thoughts among Greenland Inuit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Bjerregaard

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Background: Suicides remain a major public health problem in Greenland. Their increase coincides with the modernization since 1950. Serious suicidal thoughts are reported by a significant proportion of participants in countrywide surveys. Objective: To analyze the time trend by region of suicides and suicidal thoughts among the Inuit in Greenland. Design: Data included the Greenland registry of causes of death for 1970–2011 and 2 cross-sectional health surveys carried out in 1993–1994 and 2005–2010 with 1,580 and 3,102 Inuit participants, respectively. Results: Suicide rates were higher among men than women while the prevalence of suicidal thoughts was higher among women. Suicide rates for men and women together increased from 1960 to 1980 and have remained around 100 per 100,000 person-years since then. The regional pattern of time trend for suicide rates varied with an early peak in the capital, a continued increase to very high rates in remote East and North Greenland and a slow increase in villages relative to towns on the West Coast. Suicidal thoughts followed the regional pattern for completed suicides. Especially for women there was a noticeable increasing trend in the villages. The relative risk for suicide was highest among those who reported suicidal thoughts, but most suicides happened outside this high-risk group. Conclusion: Suicide rates and the prevalence of suicidal thoughts remain high in Greenland but different regional trends point towards an increased marginalization between towns on the central West Coast, villages and East and North Greenland. Different temporal patterns call for different regional strategies of prevention.

  17. Time trends in biological fertility in Western Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Joffe, Michael; Holmes, Jane; Jensen, Tina Kold

    2013-01-01

    analyses demonstrated that this rise was visible as a male cohort effect for both TTP and contraceptive failure. On the other hand, the female birth cohort effect showed a slight fall in the first half of the study period for both TTP and contraceptive failure. As a period effect, fertility remained...... of which are calculated to be small. The declining female fertility accords with a falling dizygotic twinning rate during the same period.......We investigated trends in biological fertility in a comprehensive analysis of 5 major European data sets with data on time to pregnancy (TTP) and proportion of contraceptive failures. In particular, we distinguished a period effect from a birth cohort effect (lifelong tendency) in both sexes...

  18. A retrospective analysis of boarding times for adolescents in psychiatric crisis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, Michael; Pierce, Jessica

    2018-02-05

    The boarding of children and adolescents with identified psychiatric conditions at medical facilities has numerous negative effects on the patients and the systems that treat them. Efforts to minimize boarding times serves to increase patients' access to appropriate levels of care, redirect medical resources to patients who need them most, and reduce safety risks to people and property. This study explores the role Clinical Social Workers can play in facilitation of care and highlights the advantages of a coordinated data collection process facilitated by the effective use of the Electronic Medical Record. A retrospective chart analysis of 100 patients admitted to the Emergency department at a pediatric hospital in Central Florida was conducted for patients seen between 1 January 2015 and 30 June 2016. The data suggest key correlates that may impact the boarding times of pediatric patients presenting in a psychiatric crisis and the average duration of boarding time in hours (M = 5.11, SD = 2.07) was found to be significantly lower than prior published studies in the adult and pediatric literature. Discussion of these data implications on behavioral health practice is discussed.

  19. A Time Series Model for Assessing the Trend and Forecasting the Road Traffic Accident Mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yousefzadeh-Chabok, Shahrokh; Ranjbar-Taklimie, Fatemeh; Malekpouri, Reza; Razzaghi, Alireza

    2016-01-01

    Background Road traffic accident (RTA) is one of the main causes of trauma and known as a growing public health concern worldwide, especially in developing countries. Assessing the trend of fatalities in the past years and forecasting it enables us to make the appropriate planning for prevention and control. Objectives This study aimed to assess the trend of RTAs and forecast it in the next years by using time series modeling. Materials and Methods In this historical analytical study, the RTA mortalities in Zanjan Province, Iran, were evaluated during 2007 - 2013. The time series analyses including Box-Jenkins models were used to assess the trend of accident fatalities in previous years and forecast it for the next 4 years. Results The mean age of the victims was 37.22 years (SD = 20.01). From a total of 2571 deaths, 77.5% (n = 1992) were males and 22.5% (n = 579) were females. The study models showed a descending trend of fatalities in the study years. The SARIMA (1, 1, 3) (0, 1, 0) 12 model was recognized as a best fit model in forecasting the trend of fatalities. Forecasting model also showed a descending trend of traffic accident mortalities in the next 4 years. Conclusions There was a decreasing trend in the study and the future years. It seems that implementation of some interventions in the recent decade has had a positive effect on the decline of RTA fatalities. Nevertheless, there is still a need to pay more attention in order to prevent the occurrence and the mortalities related to traffic accidents. PMID:27800467

  20. Trends in one-year mortality for stroke in a tertiary academic center in Saudi Arabia: a 5-year retrospective analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almekhlafi, Mohammed A

    2016-01-01

    Numerous studies have reported a decline in stroke-related mortality in developed countries. To assess trends in one-year mortality following a stroke diagnosis in Saudi Arabia. Retrospective longitudinal cohort study. Single tertiary care center from 2010 through 2014. All patients admitted with a primary admitting diagnosis of stroke. Demographic data (age, gender, nationality), risk factor profile, stroke subtypes, in-hospital complications and mortality data as well as cause of death were collected for all patients. A multivariable logistic regression model was used to assess factors associated with one-year mortality following a stroke admission. One-year mortality. In 548 patients with a mean age of 62.9 years (SD 16.9), the most frequent vascular risk factors were hypertension (90.6%), diabetes (65.5%), and hyperlipidemia (27.2%). Hemorrhagic stroke was diagnosed in 9.9%. The overall mortality risk was 26.9%. Non-Saudis had a significantly higher one-year mortality risk compared with Saudis (25% vs. 16.8%, respectively; P=.025). The most frequently reported causes of mortality were neurological and related to the underlying stroke (32%), sepsis (30%), and cardiac or other organ dysfunction-related (each 9%) in addition to other etiologies (collectively 9.5%) such as pulmonary embolism or an underlying malignancy. Significant predictors in the multivariate model were age (P stroke mortality in our center over the 5-year span. The establishment of stroke systems of care, use of thrombolytic agents, and opening of a stroke unit should play an important role in a decline in stroke mortality. Retrospective single center study. Mortality data were available only for patients who died in our hospital.

  1. Practice Trends in the Use of Extracorporeal Treatments for Poisoning in Four Countries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ghannoum, Marc; Lavergne, Valery; Gosselin, Sophie

    2016-01-01

    Extracorporeal treatments (ECTRs) such as hemodialysis (HD), enhance the elimination of a small number of toxins. Changes in overdose trends, prescribing practices, antidotes, and dialysis techniques may alter the indications and rates of ECTR use over time. This study analyzed trends in ECTR...... for poisonings in four countries. A retrospective study of national poison center databases from the United States, Denmark, United Kingdom, and five regional databases within Canada was performed. All cases of patients receiving an ECTR were included. ECTR cases were totalled annually and reported as annual......; Denmark, salicylates. A high number of ECTRs were performed for atypical toxins such as acetaminophen and benzodiazepines. These data demonstrate a growing use of HD for poisoning with significant regional variations in the overall rates and indications....

  2. Life and times of the impact factor: retrospective analysis of trends for seven medical journals (1994-2005) and their Editors' views

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chew, Mabel; Villanueva, Elmer V; Van Der Weyden, Martin B

    2007-01-01

    Objective (1) To analyse trends in the journal impact factor (IF) of seven general medical journals (Ann Intern Med, BMJ, CMAJ, JAMA, Lancet, Med J Aust and N Engl J Med) over 12 years; and (2) to ascertain the views of these journals' past and present Editors on factors that had affected their journals' IFs during their tenure, including direct editorial policies. Design Retrospective analysis of IF data from ISI Web of Knowledge Journal Citation Reports—Science Edition, 1994 to 2005, and interviews with Editors-in-Chief. Setting Medical journal publishing. Participants Ten Editors-in-Chief of the journals, except Med J Aust, who served between 1999 and 2004. Main outcome measures IFs and component numerator and denominator data for the seven general medical journals (1994 to 2005) were collected. IFs are calculated using the formula: (Citations in year z to articles published in years x and y)/(Number of citable articles published in years x and y), where z is the current year and x and y are the previous two years. Editors' views on factors that had affected their journals' IFs were also obtained. Results IFs generally rose over the 12-year period, with the N Engl J Med having the highest IF throughout. However, percentage rises in IF relative to the baseline year of 1994 were greatest for CMAJ (about 500%) and JAMA (260%). Numerators for most journals tended to rise over this period, while denominators tended to be stable or to fall, although not always in a linear fashion. Nine of ten eligible editors were interviewed. Possible reasons given for rises in citation counts included: active recruitment of high-impact articles by courting researchers; offering authors better services; boosting the journal's media profile; more careful article selection; and increases in article citations. Most felt that going online had not affected citations. Most had no deliberate policy to publish fewer articles (lowering the IF denominator), which was sometimes the unintended

  3. Life and times of the impact factor: retrospective analysis of trends for seven medical journals (1994-2005) and their Editors' views.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chew, Mabel; Villanueva, Elmer V; Van Der Weyden, Martin B

    2007-03-01

    (1) To analyse trends in the journal impact factor (IF) of seven general medical journals (Ann Intern Med, BMJ, CMAJ, JAMA, Lancet, Med J Aust and N Engl J Med) over 12 years; and (2) to ascertain the views of these journals' past and present Editors on factors that had affected their journals' IFs during their tenure, including direct editorial policies. Retrospective analysis of IF data from ISI Web of Knowledge Journal Citation Reports-Science Edition, 1994 to 2005, and interviews with Editors-in-Chief. Medical journal publishing. Ten Editors-in-Chief of the journals, except Med J Aust, who served between 1999 and 2004. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES IFs and component numerator and denominator data for the seven general medical journals (1994 to 2005) were collected. IFs are calculated using the formula: (Citations in year z to articles published in years x and y)/(Number of citable articles published in years x and y), where z is the current year and x and y are the previous two years. Editors' views on factors that had affected their journals' IFs were also obtained. IFs generally rose over the 12-year period, with the N Engl J Med having the highest IF throughout. However, percentage rises in IF relative to the baseline year of 1994 were greatest for CMAJ (about 500%) and JAMA (260%). Numerators for most journals tended to rise over this period, while denominators tended to be stable or to fall, although not always in a linear fashion. Nine of ten eligible editors were interviewed. Possible reasons given for rises in citation counts included: active recruitment of high-impact articles by courting researchers; offering authors better services; boosting the journal's media profile; more careful article selection; and increases in article citations. Most felt that going online had not affected citations. Most had no deliberate policy to publish fewer articles (lowering the IF denominator), which was sometimes the unintended result of other editorial policies. The two

  4. Hydrologic Response to Climate Change: Missing Precipitation Data Matters for Computed Timing Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniels, B.

    2016-12-01

    This work demonstrates the derivation of climate timing statistics and applying them to determine resulting hydroclimate impacts. Long-term daily precipitation observations from 50 California stations were used to compute climate trends of precipitation event Intensity, event Duration and Pause between events. Each precipitation event trend was then applied as input to a PRMS hydrology model which showed hydrology changes to recharge, baseflow, streamflow, etc. An important concern was precipitation uncertainty induced by missing observation values and causing errors in quantification of precipitation trends. Many standard statistical techniques such as ARIMA and simple endogenous or even exogenous imputation were applied but failed to help resolve these uncertainties. What helped resolve these uncertainties was use of multiple imputation techniques. This involved fitting of Weibull probability distributions to multiple imputed values for the three precipitation trends.Permutation resampling techniques using Monte Carlo processing were then applied to the multiple imputation values to derive significance p-values for each trend. Significance at the 95% level for Intensity was found for 11 of the 50 stations, Duration from 16 of the 50, and Pause from 19, of which 12 were 99% significant. The significance weighted trends for California are Intensity -4.61% per decade, Duration +3.49% per decade, and Pause +3.58% per decade. Two California basins with PRMS hydrologic models were studied: Feather River in the northern Sierra Nevada mountains and the central coast Soquel-Aptos. Each local trend was changed without changing the other trends or the total precipitation. Feather River Basin's critical supply to Lake Oroville and the State Water Project benefited from a total streamflow increase of 1.5%. The Soquel-Aptos Basin water supply was impacted by a total groundwater recharge decrease of -7.5% and streamflow decrease of -3.2%.

  5. Fast or slow food? Explaining trends in food-related time in the Netherlands, 1975–2005

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mandemakers, Jornt; Roeters, Anne|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/304837865

    2015-01-01

    The current study analysed trends in the time spent preparing and consuming food and the frequency of outsourcing (going out for dinner and take-out) in the Netherlands from 1975 to 2005. We investigated differences between trends on week and weekend days and for different socio-demographic groups.

  6. Time trend of clinical cases of Lyme disease in two hospitals in Belgium, 2000-2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Keukeleire, Mathilde; Vanwambeke, Sophie O; Kabamba, Benoît; Belkhir, Leila; Pierre, Philippe; Luyasu, Victor; Robert, Annie

    2017-12-05

    As several studies indicated an increase in Lyme disease (LD), notably in neighbouring countries, concerns have arisen regarding the evolution of Lyme disease in Belgium. In order to confirm or infirm the increase of LD in Belgium, we focused on hospital admissions of patients diagnosed with LD between 2000 and 2013 based on hospital admission databases from two hospitals in Belgium. Hospital databases are a stable recording system. We did a retrospective analysis of the medical files of patients hospitalized with Lyme disease in two Belgian hospitals between 2000 and 2013. The annual number of cases of LD for the two studied Belgian hospitals remained stable between 2000 and 2013, ranging from 1 for the Cliniques universitaires Saint-Luc to 15 for the the Clinique Saint-Pierre. No increasing trend were noted in the estimated annual incidence rate but the average estimated annual incidence rate was higher for the hospital Saint-Pierre (8.1 ± 3.7 per 100,000 inhabitants) than Saint-Luc (2.2 ± 1.5 per 100,000 inhabitants). The number of hospital cases of LD peaked between June and November. Based on hospital admissions with LD, no increasing trend was observed for the period 2000-2013 in the two studied Belgian hospitals. This is in line with other studies carried out in Belgium.

  7. Time Trends and Educational Inequalities in Out-of-Hospital Coronary Deaths in Norway 1995-2009

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sulo, Enxhela; Nygård, Ottar; Vollset, Stein Emil

    2017-01-01

    using Poisson regression analysis with year as the independent, continuous variable. Information on the highest achieved education was obtained from The National Education Database and classified as primary (up to 10 years of compulsory education), secondary (high school or vocational school......BACKGROUND: Recent time trends and educational gradients characterizing out-of-hospital coronary deaths (OHCD) are poorly described. METHODS AND RESULTS: We identified all deaths from coronary heart disease occurring outside the hospital in Norway during 1995 to 2009. Time trends were explored......), or tertiary (college/university). Educational gradients in OHCD were explored using Poisson regression, stratified by sex and age (

  8. Is there a time trend in medical practice variations?: a review of the literature and an critical analysis of theoretical approaches.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Groenewegen, P.P.; Westert, G.P.

    2004-01-01

    The aim of this study was to review the research evidence for a decreasing time trend in medical practice variation and to contribute to our theoretical understanding of trends in medical practice variations. We searched Pubmed for articles reporting on time trends in medical practice variations.

  9. Measles Morbidity and Mortality Trend in Nigeria: A 10-Year Hospital-Based Retrospective Study in Lagos State, Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akeeb O. Bola Oyefolu

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Objective: This hospital-based retrospective cohort study was undertaken with a view to determine the epidemiological trend of measles in Lagos State, Nigeria Methods: Medical records of clinically diagnosed measles patients from nine referral public hospitals in Lagos State between 1998 and 2007 were retrieved, transcribed and reviewed. Data were analyzed using standard methods. Results: A total of 35,500 clinically confirmed cases and 835 deaths (case fatality rate = 2.35%/10 years were recorded. The mean incidence was estimated at 19 cases per 100,000 population/year. A consistent seasonality pattern of measles was observed for the study period. The under-fives accounted for the highest reported cases (76.30% while, the under-1 year recorded highest mortality (53.8%. Notable shift of measles vulnerability from under-1year to under-fives was observed. Although there was significant difference between cases and deaths among the age groups (p0.05. Conclusion: This study recorded high incidence and case fatality of measles, which poses serious public health threat. Poor demographic data collection and storage were revealed thus, computerization of medical records for collection, storage and retrieval of data is imperative for adequate planning and control of measles imperil in Nigeria. J Microbiol Infect Dis 2016;6(1:12-18

  10. MDCT urography: retrospective determination of optimal delay time after intravenous contrast administration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meindl, Thomas; Coppenrath, Eva; Kahlil, Rami; Reiser, Maximilian F.; Mueller-Lisse, U.G.; Mueller-Lisse, Ulrike L.

    2006-01-01

    The optimal delay time after intravenous (i.v.) administration of contrast medium (CM) for opacifcation of the upper urinary tract (UUT) for multidetector computed tomography urography (MDCTU) was investigated. UUT opacification was retrospectively evaluated in 36 four-row MDCTU examinations. Single- (n=10) or dual-phase (n=26) MDCTU was performed with at least 5-min delay after i.v. CM. UUT was divided into four sections: intrarenal collecting system (IRCS), proximal, middle and distal ureter. Two independent readers rated UUT opacification: 1, none; 2, partial; 3, complete. Numbers and percentages of scores, and the 5%, 25%, 50%, 75% and 95% percentiles of delay time were calculated for each UUT section. After removing diseased segments, 344 segments were analysed. IRCS, proximal and middle ureter were completely opacified in 94% (81/86), 93% (80/86) and 77% (66/86) of cases, respectively. Median delay time was 15 min for complete opacification. The distal ureter was completely opacified in 37% (32/86) of cases and not opacified in 26% (22/86). Median delay time for complete opacification was 11 min with 25% and 75% percentiles of 10 and 16 min, respectively. At MDCTU, opacification of the IRCS, proximal and middle ureter was hardly sensitive to delay time. Delay times between 10 and 16 min were favourable in the distal ureter. (orig.)

  11. Body-size trends of the extinct giant shark Carcharocles megalodon: a deep-time perspective on marine apex predators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pimiento, Catalina; Balk, Meghan A

    2015-06-01

    The extinct shark Carcharocles megalodon is one of the largest marine apex predators ever to exist. Nonetheless, little is known about its body-size variations through time and space. Here, we studied the body-size trends of C. megalodon through its temporal and geographic range to better understand its ecology and evolution. Given that this species was the last of the megatooth lineage, a group of species that shows a purported size increase through time, we hypothesized that C. megalodon also displayed this trend, increasing in size over time and reaching its largest size prior to extinction. We found that C. megalodon body-size distribution was left-skewed (suggesting a long-term selective pressure favoring larger individuals), and presented significant geographic variation (possibly as a result of the heterogeneous ecological constraints of this cosmopolitan species) over geologic time. Finally, we found that stasis was the general mode of size evolution of C. megalodon (i.e., no net changes over time), contrasting with the trends of the megatooth lineage and our hypothesis. Given that C. megalodon is a relatively long-lived species with a widely distributed fossil record, we further used this study system to provide a deep-time perspective to the understanding of the body-size trends of marine apex predators. For instance, our results suggest that (1) a selective pressure in predatory sharks for consuming a broader range of prey may favor larger individuals and produce left-skewed distributions on a geologic time scale; (2) body-size variations in cosmopolitan apex marine predators may depend on their interactions with geographically discrete communities; and (3) the inherent characteristics of shark species can produce stable sizes over geologic time, regardless of the size trends of their lineages.

  12. HESS Opinions "More efforts and scientific rigour are needed to attribute trends in flood time series"

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Hundecha

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available The question whether the magnitude and frequency of floods have changed due to climate change or other drivers of change is of high interest. The number of flood trend studies is rapidly rising. When changes are detected, many studies link the identified change to the underlying causes, i.e. they attribute the changes in flood behaviour to certain drivers of change. We propose a hypothesis testing framework for trend attribution which consists of essential ingredients for a sound attribution: evidence of consistency, evidence of inconsistency, and provision of confidence statement. Further, we evaluate the current state-of-the-art of flood trend attribution. We assess how selected recent studies approach the attribution problem, and to which extent their attribution statements seem defendable. In our opinion, the current state of flood trend attribution is poor. Attribution statements are mostly based on qualitative reasoning or even speculation. Typically, the focus of flood trend studies is the detection of change, i.e. the statistical analysis of time series, and attribution is regarded as an appendix: (1 flood time series are analysed by means of trend tests, (2 if a significant change is detected, a hypothesis on the cause of change is given, and (3 explanations or published studies are sought which support the hypothesis. We believe that we need a change in perspective and more scientific rigour: detection should be seen as an integral part of the more challenging attribution problem, and detection and attribution should be placed in a sound hypothesis testing framework.

  13. Rabies trends and surveillance capabilities in Zambia | Kabaso ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The main objective of this study was to assess the trends, distribution and positivity rate of rabies cases in Zambia. A retrospective study for the period of 10 years between 2004 and 2014, was conducted by using rabies case reports. The data were analyzed with descriptive statistics and geo-coded in Quantum ...

  14. Detecting trends in forest disturbance and recovery using yearly Landsat time series: 1. LandTrendr — Temporal segmentation algorithms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert E. Kennedy; Zhiqiang Yang; Warren B. Cohen

    2010-01-01

    We introduce and test LandTrendr (Landsat-based detection of Trends in Disturbance and Recovery), a new approach to extract spectral trajectories of land surface change from yearly Landsat time-series stacks (LTS). The method brings together two themes in time-series analysis of LTS: capture of short-duration events and smoothing of long-term trends. Our strategy is...

  15. Fall prevalence, time trend and its related risk factors among elderly people in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Hong; Ouyang, Peng

    2017-11-01

    To study the fall prevalence, time trends and related risk factors among elderly people in the Chinese mainland from 2011 to 2013. Our data were from China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study in 2011 and 2013. The population sample included people aged 60 years and over. Whether the person had experienced fall accident in the last two years was used to measure fall incidence. The time trend and age groups were investigated through the chi-square test. The related risk factors were examined based on the binary logistic regression model. In 2011, 19.64% (95% CI, 18.66%, 20.67%) of elderly people experienced fall incidents and in 2013, 19.28% (95% CI, 18.46%, 20.13%) of elderly people experienced fall incidents. However, no significant difference was seen in the fall prevalence between 2011 and 2013. The fall prevalence among elderly people aged 66-70 declined significantly while that among people aged over 80 showed an increasing time trend. The fall prevalence was affected significantly by factors including age (66-70), gender, marital status, self-rated health, quantity of chronic diseases, quantity of disability items, activities of daily living and physical functioning. It is revealed the fall prevalence showed no increment from 2011 to 2013 but at a high level. More efforts should be made to reduce the fall prevalence, and special attention should be paid to the elderly people aged over 80 and older. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Space-time trends in U.S. meteorological droughts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Poulomi Ganguli

    2016-12-01

    New hydrological insights for the region: The paper finds spatial coverage of extreme meteorological drought in the recent years (post-2010 exceeds that of the iconic droughts of the 1930s (the Dust Bowl era, and the 1950s. These results are in contrast with trends in spatial variance that does not exhibit any statistically significant trend. In addition, we find drought persistence remains relatively stationary over the last half century. The findings can inform drought monitoring and planning, and improve future drought resilience.

  17. Trends in service time of pacemakers in the Netherlands: A long-term nationwide follow-up study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    L.M. de Vries (Laura); M.J.G. Leening (Maarten); W.A. Dijk (Arnold); C.A.M. Hooijschuur (C. A M); B.H.Ch. Stricker (Bruno); N.M. van Hemel (Norbert)

    2017-01-01

    textabstractAims After decades of experience and strongly improved technology, service time of pacemaker generators is expected to increase. To test this hypothesis, we conducted a retrospective review of a large cohort of patients with a pacemaker. Methods We reviewed data collected between 1984

  18. Examination of US puberty-timing data from 1940 to 1994 for secular trends

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Euling, Susan Y; Herman-Giddens, Marcia E; Lee, Peter A

    2008-01-01

    different methods. As a result, conclusions from data comparisons have not been consistent. An expert panel was asked to evaluate the weight of evidence for whether the data, collected from 1940 to 1994, are sufficient to suggest or establish a secular trend in the timing of puberty markers in US boys...

  19. Firearm and nonfirearm homicide in 5 South African cities: a retrospective population-based study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matzopoulos, Richard G; Thompson, Mary Lou; Myers, Jonathan E

    2014-03-01

    We assessed the effectiveness of South Africa's Firearm Control Act (FCA), passed in 2000, on firearm homicide rates compared with rates of nonfirearm homicide across 5 South African cities from 2001 to 2005. We conducted a retrospective population-based study of 37 067 firearm and nonfirearm homicide cases. Generalized linear models helped estimate and compare time trends of firearm and nonfirearm homicides, adjusting for age, sex, race, day of week, city, year of death, and population size. There was a statistically significant decreasing trend regarding firearm homicides from 2001, with an adjusted year-on-year homicide rate ratio of 0.864 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.848, 0.880), representing a decrease of 13.6% per annum. The year-on-year decrease in nonfirearm homicide rates was also significant, but considerably lower at 0.976 (95% CI = 0.954, 0.997). Results suggest that 4585 (95% CI = 4427, 4723) lives were saved across 5 cities from 2001 to 2005 because of the FCA. Strength, timing and consistent decline suggest stricter gun control mediated by the FCA accounted for a significant decrease in homicide overall, and firearm homicide in particular, during the study period.

  20. Annual trends in catchability and fish stock assessments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marchal Paul

    2003-04-01

    Full Text Available A key assumption of many fish stock assessment models is that catchability is constant over time. We assume here that trends in catchability may occur through fishing power creeping. The tuning fleets, which are prone to fishing power development, may be identified using the Hybrid method. A range of catchability trends, including values derived from the Hybrid method, is then implemented to standardise the fishing effort of some tuning fleets used in the stock assessments performed by XSA (eXtended Survivors Analysis. Stocks being assessed are the North Sea cod, saithe, plaice and sole. The performances of the new and traditional XSA assessments are compared using criteria based on the precision of catchability estimates, stationarity of Log-catchability residuals and retrospective patterns relative to fishing mortality, spawning stock biomass and recruitment estimates. The performances of the North Sea cod, plaice and sole assessments could be enhanced by accounting for an overall annual increase in the catchability of some of the tuning fleets. No significant trends could be detected in the catchability of the tuning fleets relative to the assessment of the North Sea saithe. By contrast with the traditional assessment, the spawning biomass of cod is expected not to have increased between 1997 and 1998, while the fishing mortality of sole is expected to have increased over the same period.

  1. Resistance patterns among multidrug-resistant tuberculosis patients in greater metropolitan Mumbai: trends over time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalal, Alpa; Pawaskar, Akshay; Das, Mrinalini; Desai, Ranjan; Prabhudesai, Pralhad; Chhajed, Prashant; Rajan, Sujeet; Reddy, Deepesh; Babu, Sajit; Jayalakshmi, T K; Saranchuk, Peter; Rodrigues, Camilla; Isaakidis, Petros

    2015-01-01

    While the high burden of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) itself is a matter of great concern, the emergence and rise of advanced forms of drug-resistance such as extensively drug-resistant TB (XDR-TB) and extremely drug-resistant TB (XXDR-TB) is more troubling. The aim of this study was to investigate the trends over time of patterns of drug resistance in a sample of MDR-TB patients in greater metropolitan Mumbai, India. This was a retrospective, observational study of drug susceptibility testing (DST) results among MDR-TB patients from eight health care facilities in greater Mumbai between 2005 and 2013. We classified resistance patterns into four categories: MDR-TB, pre-XDR-TB, XDR-TB and XXDR-TB. A total of 340 MDR-TB patients were included in the study. Pre-XDR-TB was the most common form of drug-resistant TB observed overall in this Mumbai population at 56.8% compared to 29.4% for MDR-TB. The proportion of patients with MDR-TB was 39.4% in the period 2005-2007 and 27.8% in 2011-2013, while the proportion of those with XDR-TB and XXDR-TB was changed from 6.1% and 0% respectively to 10.6% and 5.6% during the same time period. During the same periods, the proportions of patients with ofloxacin, moxifloxacin and ethionamide resistance significantly increased from 57.6% to 75.3%, from 60.0% to 69.5% and from 24.2% to 52.5% respectively (pMumbai highlight the need for individualized drug regimens, designed on the basis of DST results involving first- and second-line anti-TB drugs and treatment history of the patient. A drug-resistant TB case-finding strategy based on molecular techniques that identify only rifampicin resistance will lead to initiation of suboptimal treatment regimens for a significant number of patients, which may in turn contribute to amplification of resistance and transmission of strains with increasingly advanced resistance within the community.

  2. Time trends in leisure time physical activity and physical fitness in the elderly: five-year follow-up of the Spanish National Health Survey (2006-2011).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casado-Pérez, Carmen; Hernández-Barrera, Valentín; Jiménez-García, Rodrigo; Fernández-de-las-Peñas, Cesar; Carrasco-Garrido, Pilar; López-de-Andrés, Ana; Jimenez-Trujillo, Ma Isabel; Palacios-Ceña, Domingo

    2015-04-01

    To estimate the trends in the practice of leisure time physical activity, walking up 10 steps, and walking for 1h, during the years 2006-2011, in elderly Spanish people. Observational study, retrospective analysis of Spanish National Health Surveys. We analysed data collected from the Spanish National Health Surveys conducted in 2006 (n=30,072) and 2011 (n=21,007), through self-reported information. The number of subjects aged ≥65 years included in the current study was n=5756 in 2006 (19.14%) and n=4617 in 2011 (21.97%). We included responses from adults aged 65 years and older. The main variables included leisure-time physical activity, walking up 10 steps, and walking for 1h. We analysed socio-demographic characteristics, individuals' self-rated health status, lifestyle habits, co-morbid conditions and disability using multivariable logistic regression models. The total number of subjects was 10,373 (6076 women, 4297 men). The probability of self-reported capacity was significantly higher in 2006 than in 2011 for leisure-time physical activity, walking up 10 steps, and walking for 1h for both sexes (women: OR 2.20, 95%IC 1.91-5.55; OR 2.50, 95%IC 1.99-3.14; OR 1.04, 95%IC 1.01-1.07; men: OR 2.20, 95%IC 1.91-2.55; OR 2.01, 95%IC 1.40-2.89; OR 1.05, 95%IC 1.0-1.1) respectively. Both sexes were associated with a significantly lower probability of performing leisure-time physical activity, walking up 10 steps, and walking for 1h. Additionally, those over 80 years of age, on average, showed a poor or very poor perception of their health and presented with some type of disability. A decrease in the proportion of respondents who self-reported undertaking leisure-time physical activity, walking up 10 steps, and walking for 1h was observed in the Spanish population of over 65 years between 2006 and 2011. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Time trends of chronic HBV infection over prior decades - A global analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ott, Jördis J; Horn, Johannes; Krause, Gérard; Mikolajczyk, Rafael T

    2017-01-01

    Information on trends in chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) prevalence across countries is lacking. We studied changes in chronic HBV infection over previous decades by country, and assessed patterns of change between and within WHO-defined regions. Based on data from a published systematic review on chronic HBV, we applied a linear model on the logit scale to assess time trends in country-specific prevalence. Estimated HBsAg prevalence in 2000 and relative changes in prevalence over time were evaluated by country and region. Sufficient data were available for 50 countries, mostly showing reductions in prevalence over time. Various degrees of heterogeneity were observed within regions, with a relatively homogenous pattern in the Eastern Mediterranean region with strong decreases in HBsAg prevalence. Europe showed a mixed pattern: higher and stable chronic HBsAg prevalence in Eastern, and constantly low prevalence in Western Europe. In Africa, some countries demonstrated no change in prevalence; increases were seen in Uganda (odds ratio 1.05 per year; 95% confidence interval 1.04-1.06), Nigeria (1.02; 1.02-1.02), Senegal (1.01; 1.01-1.02), and South Africa (1.02; 1.01-1.02). With some exceptions, country-patterns overlapped among countries of South East Asian and Western Pacific regions, characterized by low-medium HBsAg decreases, most prominent in China and Malaysia. Most countries experienced decreases in HBsAg prevalence. Dynamics varied, even within regions; decreases occurred mostly before the direct effects of childhood vaccination may have manifested. These findings together with stable and increasing HBsAg prevalence in some countries of Africa and Eastern Europe indicate the need for further tailored country-specific prevention. This study investigated time trends in prevalence of chronic HBV infection in 50 countries worldwide over the last decade, by estimating relative changes in prevalence. Results show decreases in chronic HBV infection in most countries

  4. Twenty-five year socioeconomic trends in leisure-time and commuting physical activity among employed Finns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mäkinen, T; Borodulin, K; Laatikainen, T; Fogelholm, M; Prättälä, R

    2009-04-01

    The trend of socioeconomic differences in physical activity is largely unknown in Finland. In this study, we examined socioeconomic trends in leisure-time and commuting physical activity among Finns in 1978-2002. Nationwide data were derived from an annually repeated cross-sectional Finnish Adult Health Behavior Survey. People under the age of 25, students, the unemployed, and retirees were excluded from the analysis. The final data set included 25 513 women and 25 302 men. Socioeconomic variables included education, occupation, and household income. Odds ratios for being physically active and 95% confidence intervals were calculated. People with the lowest income were less leisure-time and commuting physically active. Among women, low occupational status was associated with high commuting physical activity whereas among men such an association was not found. No educational differences among men in leisure-time and commuting physical activity over time were found. Some indications were found that educational differences in leisure-time physical activity among women might have been reversed. Our data suggest that socioeconomic differences in leisure-time and commuting physical activity are quite small and have remained similar between 1978 and 2002.

  5. Time series trends of the safety effects of pavement resurfacing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Juneyoung; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed; Wang, Jung-Han

    2017-04-01

    This study evaluated the safety performance of pavement resurfacing projects on urban arterials in Florida using the observational before and after approaches. The safety effects of pavement resurfacing were quantified in the crash modification factors (CMFs) and estimated based on different ranges of heavy vehicle traffic volume and time changes for different severity levels. In order to evaluate the variation of CMFs over time, crash modification functions (CMFunctions) were developed using nonlinear regression and time series models. The results showed that pavement resurfacing projects decrease crash frequency and are found to be more safety effective to reduce severe crashes in general. Moreover, the results of the general relationship between the safety effects and time changes indicated that the CMFs increase over time after the resurfacing treatment. It was also found that pavement resurfacing projects for the urban roadways with higher heavy vehicle volume rate are more safety effective than the roadways with lower heavy vehicle volume rate. Based on the exploration and comparison of the developed CMFucntions, the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) and exponential functional form of the nonlinear regression models can be utilized to identify the trend of CMFs over time. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. prevalence trend among blood donors in jimma university

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    User

    METHODS: A descriptive retrospective cross-sectional study was carried out to see the trend of HIV ... RESULTS: A total of 3788 subjects had donated blood from 2007 to 2010 of ... Any segment of a population; rich, poor, old, ... per year, with approximately 70 percent of cases in males and 30 percent in females (7) and the.

  7. Transition in Dental Treatment Utilization in Jammu And Kashmir, India - A 10 Year Retrospective Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Batra, Manu; Ishrat, A.

    2016-01-01

    Background: Utilization of health services is the actual attendance by the members of the public at health care facilities to receive care. Utilization, serves as an important tool for oral health policy decision-making. The aim of the present study was to retrospectively gauge and assess the utilization pattern of the dental treatments which was given in hospital for last 10 years. Materials and Methods: This retrospective infirmary based study was carried out at Sheri Kashmir Institute of Medical Sciences (SKIMS), Srinagar, Jammu and Kashmir, India. The yearly outpatient department (OPD) records for the utilization of specific dental treatment of a total of 103963 patients were assessed retrospectively from 2014 to 2003. Trend analysis was used to assess the trend of utilization of each speciality with best fitted linear trend lines. Results: The pattern of new patients has also shown a constant rise during the study period except for 2008 and 2009. The utilization of oral surgery speciality has shown a tremendous fall from 2003 to 2014 whereas the number of patients coming to periodontics and conservative dentistry has shown an increasing pattern. Conclusion: Utilization of oral health care has long been used as an indicator of oral health related behaviour of a population. In the present study it can be conclude that the outlook of the population under study has changed from blood and vulcanite dentistry outlook and is moving towards restorative dentistry. . PMID:28804675

  8. Trend analysis of air temperature and precipitation time series over Greece: 1955-2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marougianni, G.; Melas, D.; Kioutsioukis, I.; Feidas, H.; Zanis, P.; Anandranistakis, E.

    2012-04-01

    In this study, a database of air temperature and precipitation time series from the network of Hellenic National Meteorological Service has been developed in the framework of the project GEOCLIMA, co-financed by the European Union and Greek national funds through the Operational Program "Competitiveness and Entrepreneurship" of the Research Funding Program COOPERATION 2009. Initially, a quality test was applied to the raw data and then missing observations have been imputed with a regularized, spatial-temporal expectation - maximization algorithm to complete the climatic record. Next, a quantile - matching algorithm was applied in order to verify the homogeneity of the data. The processed time series were used for the calculation of temporal annual and seasonal trends of air temperature and precipitation. Monthly maximum and minimum surface air temperature and precipitation means at all available stations in Greece were analyzed for temporal trends and spatial variation patterns for the longest common time period of homogenous data (1955 - 2010), applying the Mann-Kendall test. The majority of the examined stations showed a significant increase in the summer maximum and minimum temperatures; this could be possibly physically linked to the Etesian winds, because of the less frequent expansion of the low over the southeastern Mediterranean. Summer minimum temperatures have been increasing at a faster rate than that of summer maximum temperatures, reflecting an asymmetric change of extreme temperature distributions. Total annual precipitation has been significantly decreased at the stations located in western Greece, as well as in the southeast, while the remaining areas exhibit a non-significant negative trend. This reduction is very likely linked to the positive phase of the NAO that resulted in an increase in the frequency and persistence of anticyclones over the Mediterranean.

  9. A descriptive retrospective study of time consumption in home care services: how do employees use their working time?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holm, Solrun G; Angelsen, Ragnhild O

    2014-09-26

    Home care services in Norway are provided for free, and municipalities are responsible for their provision to all those in need of them, in accordance with the Act on Municipal Health and Care Services. The costs of home care services are increasing. Many municipalities are now working to find the best cost-effective solutions to ensure that home care services are of sufficient quality but still affordable. This paper describes how nurses and health workers spend their working time, with a hypothesis that driving time and time required to document details of the care given are underestimated in weekly planning schedules. This article sets out a descriptive retrospective study of day-schedules and driving routes for staff working in home care services. Data were analyzed using GIS. The driving time was between 18% and 26% of working time in municipality A, and between 21% and 23% in municipality B. Visiting time varied between 44% and 62% in municipality A, and 40% and 56% in municipality B. Other tasks, including the legally-required documentation of the care given, varied between 19% and 32% in municipality A and 21% and 38% in municipality B. Overall, 22% of the driving routes in municipality A, and 14% in municipality B, took more time than expected. In municipality A, 22% of the day-schedules underestimated overtime; this figure was 14% in municipality B. In home care services, time taken for driving and to write statutory documentation seems to have been underestimated. Better planning and organization of driving routes would reduce driving time and allow more time for other necessary work.

  10. Time trends in mental health care utilization in a Dutch area, 1976-1990

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oldehinkel, AJ

    This paper concerns time trends in mental health care utilization in a Dutch area from 1976 to 1990. In general, there was an increase in the use of psychiatric services during the study period, both in terms of the number of new patients (per 1000 population) and in terms of the amount of care

  11. Television Viewing at Home: Age Trends in Visual Attention and Time with TV.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Daniel R.; And Others

    1986-01-01

    Decribes age trends in television viewing time and visual attention of children and adults videotaped in their homes for 10-day periods. Shows that the increase in visual attention to television during the preschool years is consistent with the theory that television program comprehensibility is a major determinant of attention in young children.…

  12. Time trends of physical activity in Brazil (2006-2009).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hallal, Pedro C; Knuth, Alan G; Reis, Rodrigo S; Rombaldi, Airton J; Malta, Deborah C; Iser, Betine P M; Bernal, Regina T I; Florindo, Alex A

    2011-09-01

    To examine time trends in physical activity (PA) in Brazilian state capitals from 2006 to 2009. This analysis is based on data from the Telephone-based Surveillance of Risk and Protective Factors for Chronic Diseases (VIGITEL) accounting for an annual sample of approximately 54,000 individuals. PA indicators were analyzed in free time (leisure), work, home and transportation, time spent in front of the television and inactivity considering all PA domains. Poisson regression models were used to measure the variation of indicators over time. We considered the changes corresponding to a regression coefficient different from zero as being statistically significant (p<0.05). The percentage of active commuters increased from 11.7 to 14.4% (p<0.001) whereas the proportion of physically inactive individuals in the four domains decreased from 11.7 to 8.7% (p<0.001). There were no significant changes in the other indicators. Women were less active than men in all indicators, except for household chores. However, in this indicator the percentage of active women decreased from 71.4 to 67.1% (p<0.001). Between 2006 and 2009, PA levels in the Brazilian population were stable during free time and household chores, but increased in transportation, resulting in a decrease in the percentage of inactive individuals. The continued monitoring and strengthening of VIGITEL are public health priorities, and PA is a key part of it. In the long run, PA evolution may be re-evaluated.

  13. De-trending of turbulence measurements

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Kurt Schaldemose; Larsen, Gunner Chr.

    2007-01-01

    based on time series statistics only. The performance of the proposed de-trending algorithm is assessed using huge number of time series recorded at different types of terrain and orography. The strategy is the following: Based on the available time series information a conventional (linear) time series...... de-trending is performed and subsequently compared with the prediction from the proposed algorithm. The de-trended turbulence intensities are reduced in the range of 3 – 15 % compared to the raw turbulence intensity. The performed analysis shows that the proposed model, based on statistical...... this requires access to the basic time-series. However, including a suitable modelling of the mean wind speed time variation, it is possible to estimate an approximate (linear) trend correction based on statistical data only. This paper presents such an algorithm for de-trending of turbulence standard deviation...

  14. Time Trend of the People lost follow up on Antiretroviral Therapy (ART Services in Nepal: A Epidemiological Modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brijesh Sathian

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Background: The real state about the spread of the HIV epidemic in Nepal is not clear since the details available are on the basis of repeated integrated biological and behavioral surveillance. Objective To study the trends of People lost follow up on ART in future. Material and methods: A retrospective study was carried out on the data collected from the Health ministry records of Nepal, between 2006 and 2012. Descriptive statistics and statistical modelling were used for the analysis and forecasting of data. Results: Including the constant term from the equation, the quadratic model was the best fit, for the forecasting of People lost follow up on ART. Using quadratic equation, it is estimated that 4331 reported number of People lost follow up on ART will be there in Nepal by the year 2020. Conclusion: The People lost follow up on ART in Nepal are having an increasing trend. Estimates of the total number of People lost follow up on ART attributable to the major routes of infection make an important contribution to public health policy. They can be used for the planning of healthcare services and for contributing to estimates of the future numbers with People lost follow up on ART used for planning health promotion programmes.

  15. Time trends of perfluorinated alkyl acids in serum from Danish pregnant women 2008-2013

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjerregaard-Olesen, Christian; Bach, Cathrine C; Long, Manhai

    2016-01-01

    for sixteen PFAAs using solid phase extraction and liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS). We investigated the time trends for seven PFAAs, which were detected in more than 50% of the samples: perfluorohexane sulfonate (PFHxS), perfluoroheptane sulfonate (PFHpS), perfluorooctane sulfonate...

  16. THE FREQUENCY OF RISK FACTORS ON TRENDS OF PANCREATIC CANCER IN KOSOVO

    OpenAIRE

    Ramadani, Naser; Dedushi, Kreshnike; Mu?aj, Sefedin; Kabashi, Serbeze; Jerliu, Naim; Hoxhaj, Astrit

    2016-01-01

    The aim: The aim of this paper is to analyze different factors that influence the trends of pancreatic cancer mortality and morbidity of patients treated at the UCCK of Kosovo. Within this study, we have evaluated pancreatic cancer risk factors, durability and lethality regarding Kosovan patients who have been diagnosed and treated within Kosovo. The study in question is that of retrospective research traversing the period of 2011-2015. Materials and methodology: This retrospective research s...

  17. Effects of dating errors on nonparametric trend analyses of speleothem time series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Mudelsee

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available A fundamental problem in paleoclimatology is to take fully into account the various error sources when examining proxy records with quantitative methods of statistical time series analysis. Records from dated climate archives such as speleothems add extra uncertainty from the age determination to the other sources that consist in measurement and proxy errors. This paper examines three stalagmite time series of oxygen isotopic composition (δ18O from two caves in western Germany, the series AH-1 from the Atta Cave and the series Bu1 and Bu4 from the Bunker Cave. These records carry regional information about past changes in winter precipitation and temperature. U/Th and radiocarbon dating reveals that they cover the later part of the Holocene, the past 8.6 thousand years (ka. We analyse centennial- to millennial-scale climate trends by means of nonparametric Gasser–Müller kernel regression. Error bands around fitted trend curves are determined by combining (1 block bootstrap resampling to preserve noise properties (shape, autocorrelation of the δ18O residuals and (2 timescale simulations (models StalAge and iscam. The timescale error influences on centennial- to millennial-scale trend estimation are not excessively large. We find a "mid-Holocene climate double-swing", from warm to cold to warm winter conditions (6.5 ka to 6.0 ka to 5.1 ka, with warm–cold amplitudes of around 0.5‰ δ18O; this finding is documented by all three records with high confidence. We also quantify the Medieval Warm Period (MWP, the Little Ice Age (LIA and the current warmth. Our analyses cannot unequivocally support the conclusion that current regional winter climate is warmer than that during the MWP.

  18. Trends in readmission rates for safety net hospitals and non-safety net hospitals in the era of the US Hospital Readmission Reduction Program: a retrospective time series analysis using Medicare administrative claims data from 2008 to 2015.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salerno, Amy M; Horwitz, Leora I; Kwon, Ji Young; Herrin, Jeph; Grady, Jacqueline N; Lin, Zhenqiu; Ross, Joseph S; Bernheim, Susannah M

    2017-07-13

    To compare trends in readmission rates among safety net and non-safety net hospitals under the US Hospital Readmission Reduction Program (HRRP). A retrospective time series analysis using Medicare administrative claims data from January 2008 to June 2015. We examined 3254 US hospitals eligible for penalties under the HRRP, categorised as safety net or non-safety net hospitals based on the hospital's proportion of patients with low socioeconomic status. Admissions for Medicare fee-for-service patients, age ≥65 years, discharged alive, who had a valid five-digit zip code and did not have a principal discharge diagnosis of cancer or psychiatric illness were included, for a total of 52 516 213 index admissions. Mean hospital-level, all-condition, 30-day risk-adjusted standardised unplanned readmission rate, measured quarterly, along with quarterly rate of change, and an interrupted time series examining: April-June 2010, after HRRP was passed, and October-December 2012, after HRRP penalties were implemented. 58.0% (SD 15.3) of safety net hospitals and 17.1% (SD 10.4) of non-safety net hospitals' patients were in the lowest quartile of socioeconomic status. The mean safety net hospital standardised readmission rate declined from 17.0% (SD 3.7) to 13.6% (SD 3.6), whereas the mean non-safety net hospital declined from 15.4% (SD 3.0) to 12.7% (SD 2.5). The absolute difference in rates between safety net and non-safety net hospitals declined from 1.6% (95% CI 1.3 to 1.9) to 0.9% (0.7 to 1.2). The quarterly decline in standardised readmission rates was 0.03 percentage points (95% CI 0.03 to 0.02, preadmission rates for safety net hospitals have decreased more rapidly than those for non-safety net hospitals. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  19. Statistical significance approximation in local trend analysis of high-throughput time-series data using the theory of Markov chains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xia, Li C; Ai, Dongmei; Cram, Jacob A; Liang, Xiaoyi; Fuhrman, Jed A; Sun, Fengzhu

    2015-09-21

    Local trend (i.e. shape) analysis of time series data reveals co-changing patterns in dynamics of biological systems. However, slow permutation procedures to evaluate the statistical significance of local trend scores have limited its applications to high-throughput time series data analysis, e.g., data from the next generation sequencing technology based studies. By extending the theories for the tail probability of the range of sum of Markovian random variables, we propose formulae for approximating the statistical significance of local trend scores. Using simulations and real data, we show that the approximate p-value is close to that obtained using a large number of permutations (starting at time points >20 with no delay and >30 with delay of at most three time steps) in that the non-zero decimals of the p-values obtained by the approximation and the permutations are mostly the same when the approximate p-value is less than 0.05. In addition, the approximate p-value is slightly larger than that based on permutations making hypothesis testing based on the approximate p-value conservative. The approximation enables efficient calculation of p-values for pairwise local trend analysis, making large scale all-versus-all comparisons possible. We also propose a hybrid approach by integrating the approximation and permutations to obtain accurate p-values for significantly associated pairs. We further demonstrate its use with the analysis of the Polymouth Marine Laboratory (PML) microbial community time series from high-throughput sequencing data and found interesting organism co-occurrence dynamic patterns. The software tool is integrated into the eLSA software package that now provides accelerated local trend and similarity analysis pipelines for time series data. The package is freely available from the eLSA website: http://bitbucket.org/charade/elsa.

  20. How safe is motherhood in Nigeria?: the trend of mammal mortality ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Objective: To determine the magnitude and trend of maternal mortality in Jos University Teaching Hospital, Jos, Nigeria. Design: Retrospective study. Setting: Jos University Teaching Hospital, Jos, Nigeria. Subject: AN women dying in pregnancy, labour and puerperium. Main outcome measures: Maternal mortality ratio, ...

  1. Depth-time interpolation of feature trends extracted from mobile microelectrode data with kernel functions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Stephen; Hargreaves, Eric L; Baltuch, Gordon H; Jaggi, Jurg L; Danish, Shabbar F

    2012-01-01

    Microelectrode recording (MER) is necessary for precision localization of target structures such as the subthalamic nucleus during deep brain stimulation (DBS) surgery. Attempts to automate this process have produced quantitative temporal trends (feature activity vs. time) extracted from mobile MER data. Our goal was to evaluate computational methods of generating spatial profiles (feature activity vs. depth) from temporal trends that would decouple automated MER localization from the clinical procedure and enhance functional localization in DBS surgery. We evaluated two methods of interpolation (standard vs. kernel) that generated spatial profiles from temporal trends. We compared interpolated spatial profiles to true spatial profiles that were calculated with depth windows, using correlation coefficient analysis. Excellent approximation of true spatial profiles is achieved by interpolation. Kernel-interpolated spatial profiles produced superior correlation coefficient values at optimal kernel widths (r = 0.932-0.940) compared to standard interpolation (r = 0.891). The choice of kernel function and kernel width resulted in trade-offs in smoothing and resolution. Interpolation of feature activity to create spatial profiles from temporal trends is accurate and can standardize and facilitate MER functional localization of subcortical structures. The methods are computationally efficient, enhancing localization without imposing additional constraints on the MER clinical procedure during DBS surgery. Copyright © 2012 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  2. [Trend of the selenium supply of cattle in Germany, Austria, Switzerland, and Denmark. Retrospective analysis of serum samples of the years 2006-2015].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Müller, A; Freude, B

    2016-01-01

    An optimal selenium supply of cattle is essential, because an insufficiency can lead to health disorders and reduced performance. The aim of the study was to retrospectively evaluate the selenium supply of cattle in Germany, Austria, Switzerland, and Denmark. Serum samples from 45  068 cattle with unknown clinical status originating from countries all across Europe, which had been sent by veterinarians to the IDEXX Laboratory Ludwigsburg, Germany, between January 1st, 2006 and June 30th, 2015, were routinely analyzed for the selenium concentration by means of Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry. A total of 40  949 samples (30  462 from Germany, 4004 from Austria, 3232 from Switzerland, 3251 from Denmark) were included in the evaluation. Results were categorized as follows: 50-150 µg/l: sufficient supply,  150 µg/l: supply too high. During the observation period, a generalized trend towards a decreasing selenium supply was clear. Denmark showed the best selenium supply (77.4% of samples indicating a sufficient supply); however, even in this country a tendency towards a deterioration was seen. A very poor situation with a strongly decreasing selenium supply was observed in Austria, followed by Germany (38% and 30% of samples, respectively, indicating an undersupply). For Switzerland, a constantly poor selenium supply was found (49% of samples indicating an undersupply). Due to the ongoing trend of a selenium undersupply in cattle herds, it is recommended to control the serum selenium concentration annually and supplement this trace element via mineral food when necessary.

  3. Trends in Leisure Time Physical Activity among Young People in Finland, 1977-2007

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laakso, Lauri; Telama, Risto; Nupponen, Heimo; Rimpela, Arja; Pere, Lasse

    2008-01-01

    The decline in physical activity among young people has been discussed in the media during recent decades, although the scientific evidence for this has been scarce. The aim of this study was to investigate trends over 30 years in leisure time physical activity of Finnish boys and girls aged 12, 14, 16 and 18 years from 1977 to 2007. The data were…

  4. Incidence and time trends of Herpes zoster in rheumatoid arthritis: a population-based cohort study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veetil, Bharath Manu Akkara; Myasoedova, Elena; Matteson, Eric L.; Gabriel, Sherine E.; Green, Abigail B.; Crowson, Cynthia S.

    2012-01-01

    Objective To determine the incidence, time trends, risk factors and severity of herpes zoster (HZ) in a population-based incidence cohort of patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) compared to a group of individuals without RA from the same population. Methods All residents of Olmsted County, MN who first fulfilled 1987 American College of Rheumatology criteria for RA between 1/1/1980 and 12/31/2007 and a cohort of similar residents without RA were assembled and followed by retrospective chart review until death, migration, or 12/31/2008. Results There was no difference in the presence of HZ prior to RA incidence/index date between the cohorts (p=0.85). During follow-up 84 patients with RA (rate: 12.1 per 1000 person-years) and 44 subjects without RA (rate: 5.4 per 1000 person-years) developed HZ. Patients with RA were more likely to develop HZ than those without RA (hazard ratio: 2.4; 95% confidence interval: 1.7, 3.5). Patients diagnosed with RA in 1995–2007 had a higher likelihood of developing HZ than those diagnosed in 1980–1994. Erosive disease, previous joint surgery, use of hydroxychloroquine and corticosteroids were significantly associated with the development of HZ in RA, while the use of methotrexate or biologic agents was not. Complications of HZ occurred at a similar rate in both cohorts. Conclusion The incidence of HZ is increased in RA and has risen in recent years. The increasing incidence of HZ in more recent years is also noted in the general population. RA disease severity is associated with development of HZ. PMID:23281295

  5. Analysis of childhood leukemia mortality trends in Brazil, from 1980 to 2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Franciane F. Silva

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: Leukemias comprise the most common group of cancers in children and adolescents. Studies conducted in other countries and Brazil have observed a decrease in their mortality.This study aimed to evaluate the trend of mortality from leukemia in children under 19 years of age in Brazil, from 1980 to 2010. METHODS: This was an ecological study, using retrospective time series data from the Mortality Information System, from 1980 to 2010. Calculations of mortality rates were performed, including gross, gender-specific, and age-based. For trend analysis, linear and semi-log regression models were used. The significance level was 5%. RESULTS: Mortality rates for lymphoid and myeloid leukemias presented a growth trend, with the exception of lymphoid leukemia among children under 4 years of age (percentage decrease: 1.21% annually, while in the sub-group "Other types of leukemia", a downward trend was observed. Overall, mortality from leukemia tended to increase for boys and girls, especially in the age groups 10-14 years (annual percentage increase of 1.23% for males and 1.28% for females and 15-19 years (annual percentage increase of 1.40% for males and 1.62% for females. CONCLUSIONS: The results for leukemia generally corroborate the results of other similar studies. A detailed analysis by subgroup of leukemia, age, and gender revealed no trends shown in other studies, thus indicating special requirements for each variable in the analysis.

  6. Analysis of childhood leukemia mortality trends in Brazil, from 1980 to 2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, Franciane F; Zandonade, Eliana; Zouain-Figueiredo, Glaucia P

    2014-01-01

    Leukemias comprise the most common group of cancers in children and adolescents. Studies conducted in other countries and Brazil have observed a decrease in their mortality.This study aimed to evaluate the trend of mortality from leukemia in children under 19 years of age in Brazil, from 1980 to 2010. This was an ecological study, using retrospective time series data from the Mortality Information System, from 1980 to 2010. Calculations of mortality rates were performed, including gross, gender-specific, and age-based. For trend analysis, linear and semi-log regression models were used. The significance level was 5%. Mortality rates for lymphoid and myeloid leukemias presented a growth trend, with the exception of lymphoid leukemia among children under 4 years of age (percentage decrease: 1.21% annually), while in the sub-group "Other types of leukemia", a downward trend was observed. Overall, mortality from leukemia tended to increase for boys and girls, especially in the age groups 10-14 years (annual percentage increase of 1.23% for males and 1.28% for females) and 15-19 years (annual percentage increase of 1.40% for males and 1.62% for females). The results for leukemia generally corroborate the results of other similar studies. A detailed analysis by subgroup of leukemia, age, and gender revealed no trends shown in other studies, thus indicating special requirements for each variable in the analysis. Copyright © 2014 Sociedade Brasileira de Pediatria. Published by Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

  7. Gender Differences Time Trends for Metabolic Syndrome and Its Components among Tehranian Children and Adolescents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maryam Barzin

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Aims. To investigate the trend of metabolic syndrome and its components in Tehran children and adolescents during a median followup of 6.6 years. Methods. Data from 1999–2001 (phase I, 2002–2005 (phase II, and 2006–2008 (phase III of the Tehran, Lipid and Glucose Study were analyzed (=5439; age 6–18 years for the trend of metabolic syndrome (MetS and its components. General estimation equation (GEE models were used to analyze this correlated data. Results. The crude prevalence of MetS for boys at baseline was 13.2%, which increased to 16.4% in the third phase. In girls, the prevalence of Mets decreased from 11.8% at baseline to 6% during followup. The odd ratios (OR of obesity over the whole study period were raised in both sexes. The OR of abdominal obesity increased significantly in boys, but no change was observed in girls. No significant OR was observed in boys, while OR for MetS was shown to have a decreasing trend in girls during the followup. In the three time points, the ORs of MetS decreased significantly in girls but no significant difference was observed in boys. Conclusion. Inspite of increasing trend for obesity in both sexes, the trend of MetS decreased in girls and was relatively stable in boys, in Tehranian children, and adolescents.

  8. Wairarapa Valley groundwater : residence time, flow pattern, and hydrochemistry trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morgenstern, U.

    2005-01-01

    The Wairarapa groundwater system has a complicated hydrogeological setting as it evolved from sea level changes, tectonic activity, and geomorphic process. Due to increasing groundwater demand a better understanding of the groundwater resources is required to help achieve effective management and sustainable use. In addition to previous 'classical' hydrogeology studies, this report represents the first stage of a comprehensive approach using age dating and chemistry time trends for understanding the Wairarapa groundwater system. The methodology of groundwater age dating and mixing models is described in Appendix 1. Historic tritium data were evaluated, and combined with new tritium and CFC/SF 6 data to allow for robust age dating. (author). 14 refs., 30 figs

  9. Time trends and epidemiological patterns of perinatal lamb mortality in Norway.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmøy, Ingrid Hunter; Waage, Steinar

    2015-09-30

    Perinatal mortality is a major cause of loss in the sheep industry. Our aim was to explore time trends in crude population stillbirth and neonatal mortality rates in Norway. We used data on 6,435,715 lambs from flocks enrolled in the Norwegian Sheep Recording System (NSRS) from 2000 through 2010 for descriptive analysis of trends. Longitudinal patterns of mortality rates were compared for lambs within different levels of variables suspected to be associated with perinatal loss. There was an approximately linear increase in the annual proportion of stillborn lambs during the study period, from 3.3 % in 2000 to 4.7 % in 2010. In the same time period, average litter size of ewes in NSRS flocks increased from 2.00 to 2.19. However, a steady rise in stillbirth rate was observed within each litter size group, suggesting a gradually increasing impact on stillbirth risk of other, yet unidentified, factors. Average flock size increased during the study period. The highest stillbirth rates were found in the largest and smallest flocks. Early neonatal mortality rates (0-5 days of life) varied from year to year (minimum 2.2 %, maximum 3.2 %) and were invariably higher among triplets and quadruplets than among singletons and twins. Annual fluctuations were parallel within the various litter sizes. A significant overall decreasing trend was present within all litter sizes with the exception of singletons. Weather data for the prime lambing months (April and May) 2000-2010 indicated a relationship between low temperatures and high neonatal mortality rates. At the flock level, there was a significant positive correlation between stillbirths and early neonatal mortality rates (r = 0.13), between stillbirth rates in two consecutive years (r = 0.43) and between early neonatal mortality rates in two consecutive years (r = 0.40). The substantial increase in ovine stillbirth rate in recent years in Norway was to some extent related to a corresponding increase in the

  10. Time Series Analysis of Onchocerciasis Data from Mexico: A Trend towards Elimination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pérez-Rodríguez, Miguel A.; Adeleke, Monsuru A.; Orozco-Algarra, María E.; Arrendondo-Jiménez, Juan I.; Guo, Xianwu

    2013-01-01

    Background In Latin America, there are 13 geographically isolated endemic foci distributed among Mexico, Guatemala, Colombia, Venezuela, Brazil and Ecuador. The communities of the three endemic foci found within Mexico have been receiving ivermectin treatment since 1989. In this study, we predicted the trend of occurrence of cases in Mexico by applying time series analysis to monthly onchocerciasis data reported by the Mexican Secretariat of Health between 1988 and 2011 using the software R. Results A total of 15,584 cases were reported in Mexico from 1988 to 2011. The data of onchocerciasis cases are mainly from the main endemic foci of Chiapas and Oaxaca. The last case in Oaxaca was reported in 1998, but new cases were reported in the Chiapas foci up to 2011. Time series analysis performed for the foci in Mexico showed a decreasing trend of the disease over time. The best-fitted models with the smallest Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) were Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models, which were used to predict the tendency of onchocerciasis cases for two years ahead. According to the ARIMA models predictions, the cases in very low number (below 1) are expected for the disease between 2012 and 2013 in Chiapas, the last endemic region in Mexico. Conclusion The endemic regions of Mexico evolved from high onchocerciasis-endemic states to the interruption of transmission due to the strategies followed by the MSH, based on treatment with ivermectin. The extremely low level of expected cases as predicted by ARIMA models for the next two years suggest that the onchocerciasis is being eliminated in Mexico. To our knowledge, it is the first study utilizing time series for predicting case dynamics of onchocerciasis, which could be used as a benchmark during monitoring and post-treatment surveillance. PMID:23459370

  11. Time to sputum conversion in multidrug-resistant tuberculosis patients in Armenia: retrospective cohort study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arax Hovhannesyan

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To characterize time to sputum conversion among patients with multidrug resistant tuberculosis who were enrolled into second-line tuberculosis treatment program; to identify risk factors for delayed sputum conversion. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study designed to identify the factors associated with sputum conversion. Survival analysis was performed using Kaplan-Meier estimator to compute estimates for median time to sputum conversion and Cox proportional hazards model to compute hazard ratios (HR. RESULTS: Sputum conversion from positive to negative was observed in 134 out of 195 cases (69%. Among these who converted the median time to conversion was 3.7 months. Factors independently associated with time to sputum conversion in the proportional hazards model were: male sex (HR=0.51, 95% CI 0.32-0.81, ofloxacin-resistant tuberculosis (HR = 0.45, 95% CI 0.26-0.78 and first period of recruitment into second-line treatment (HR= 0.69, 95% CI 0.47-1.01. CONCLUSION: Time to sputum conversion in patients with multidrug-resistant tuberculosis in Armenia was 5.8 months (range 0.5-17.0 months. High level of ofloxacin resistance was the main reason for compromised response to treatment. Patients with a poor resistance profile and males should be targeted with more aggressive initial therapy.

  12. Time to sputum conversion in multidrug-resistant tuberculosis patients in Armenia: retrospective cohort study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arax Hovhannesyan

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To characterize time to sputum conversion among patients with multidrug resistant tuberculosis who were enrolled into second-line tuberculosis treatment program; to identify risk factors for delayed sputum conversion. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study designed to identify the factors associated with sputum conversion. Survival analysis was performed using Kaplan-Meier estimator to compute estimates for median time to sputum conversion and Cox proportional hazards model to compute hazard ratios (HR. RESULTS: Sputum conversion from positive to negative was observed in 134 out of 195 cases (69%. Among these who converted the median time to conversion was 3.7 months. Factors independently associated with time to sputum conversion in the proportional hazards model were: male sex (HR=0.51, 95% CI 0.32-0.81, ofloxacin-resistant tuberculosis (HR = 0.45, 95% CI 0.26-0.78 and first period of recruitment into second-line treatment (HR= 0.69, 95% CI 0.47-1.01. CONCLUSION: Time to sputum conversion in patients with multidrug-resistant tuberculosis in Armenia was 5.8 months (range 0.5- 17.0 months. High level of ofloxacin resistance was the main reason for compromised response to treatment. Patients with a poor resistance profile and males should be targeted with more aggressive initial therapy.

  13. Mapping and Evaluation of NDVI Trends from Synthetic Time Series Obtained by Blending Landsat and MODIS Data around a Coalfield on the Loess Plateau

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kun Wang

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available The increasingly intensive and extensive coal mining activities on the Loess Plateau pose a threat to the fragile local ecosystems. Quantifying the effects of coal mining activities on environmental conditions is of great interest for restoring and managing the local ecosystems and resources. This paper generates dense NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index time series between 2000 and 2011 at a spatial resolution of 30 m by blending Landsat and MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer data using the Spatial and Temporal Adaptive Reflectance Fusion Model (STARFM and further evaluates its capability for mapping vegetation trends around a typical coalfield on the Loss Plateau. Synthetic NDVI images were generated using (1 STARFM-generated NIR (near infrared and red band reflectance data (scheme 1 and (2 Landsat and MODIS NDVI images directly as inputs for STARFM (scheme 2. By comparing the synthetic NDVI images with the corresponding Landsat NDVI, we found that scheme 2 consistently generated better results (0.70 < R2 < 0.76 than scheme 1 (0.56 < R2 < 0.70 in this study area. Trend analysis was then performed with the synthetic dense NDVI time series and the annual maximum NDVI (NDVImax time series. The accuracy of these trends was evaluated by comparing to those from the corresponding MODIS time series, and it was concluded that both the trends from synthetic/MODIS NDVI dense time series and synthetic/MODIS NDVImax time series (2000–2011 were highly consistent. Compared to trends from MODIS time series, trends from synthetic time series are better able to capture fine scale vegetation changes. STARFM-generated synthetic NDVI time series could be used to quantify the effects of mining activities on vegetation, but the test areas should be selected with caution, as the trends derived from synthetic and MODIS time series may be significantly different in some areas.

  14. Analysis of the development trend of China’s business administration based on time series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiang Rui

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available On the general direction of the economic system, China is in a crucial period of the establishment of the modern enterprise system and reform of the macroeconomic system, and a lot of high-quality business administration talents are required to make China’s economy be stably developed. This paper carries out time series analysis of the development situation of China’s business administration major: on the whole, the society currently presents an upward trend on the demand for the business administration talents. With the gradually increasing demand for the business administration talents, various colleges and universities also set up the business administration major to train a large number of administration talents, thus leading to an upward trend for the academic focus on business administration.

  15. A nationally representative study of maternal obesity in England, UK : trends in incidence and demographic inequalities in 619323 births, 1989-2007.

    OpenAIRE

    Heslehurst, N.; Rankin, J.; Wilkinson, J.R.; Summerbell, C.D.

    2010-01-01

    Background: There is an absence of national statistics for maternal obesity in the UK. This study is the first to describe a nationally representative maternal obesity research data set in England. Design: Retrospective epidemiological study of first trimester obesity. Methods: Data from 34 maternity units were analysed, including 619 323 births between 1989 and 2007. Data analysis included trends in first trimester maternal body bass index status over time, and geographical distribut...

  16. Investigating the impact of the English health inequalities strategy: time trend analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barr, Ben; Higgerson, James; Whitehead, Margaret

    2017-07-26

    Objective  To investigate whether the English health inequalities strategy was associated with a decline in geographical health inequalities, compared with trends before and after the strategy. Design  Time trend analysis. Setting  Two groups of lower tier local authorities in England. The most deprived, bottom fifth and the rest of England. Intervention  The English health inequalities strategy-a cross government strategy implemented between 1997 and 2010 to reduce health inequalities in England. Trends in geographical health inequalities were assessed before (1983-2003), during (2004-12), and after (2013-15) the strategy using segmented linear regression. Main outcome measure  Geographical health inequalities measured as the relative and absolute differences in male and female life expectancy at birth between the most deprived local authorities in England and the rest of the country. Results  Before the strategy the gap in male and female life expectancy between the most deprived local authorities in England and the rest of the country increased at a rate of 0.57 months each year (95% confidence interval 0.40 to 0.74 months) and 0.30 months each year (0.12 to 0.48 months). During the strategy period this trend reversed and the gap in life expectancy for men reduced by 0.91 months each year (0.54 to 1.27 months) and for women by 0.50 months each year (0.15 to 0.86 months). Since the end of the strategy period the inequality gap has increased again at a rate of 0.68 months each year (-0.20 to 1.56 months) for men and 0.31 months each year (-0.26 to 0.88) for women. By 2012 the gap in male life expectancy was 1.2 years smaller (95% confidence interval 0.8 to 1.5 years smaller) and the gap in female life expectancy was 0.6 years smaller (0.3 to 1.0 years smaller) than it would have been if the trends in inequalities before the strategy had continued. Conclusion  The English health inequalities strategy was associated with a decline in geographical inequalities

  17. Cone-Beam Computed Tomography–Guided Positioning of Laryngeal Cancer Patients with Large Interfraction Time Trends in Setup and Nonrigid Anatomy Variations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gangsaas, Anne; Astreinidou, Eleftheria; Quint, Sandra; Levendag, Peter C.; Heijmen, Ben

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: To investigate interfraction setup variations of the primary tumor, elective nodes, and vertebrae in laryngeal cancer patients and to validate protocols for cone beam computed tomography (CBCT)-guided correction. Methods and Materials: For 30 patients, CBCT-measured displacements in fractionated treatments were used to investigate population setup errors and to simulate residual setup errors for the no action level (NAL) offline protocol, the extended NAL (eNAL) protocol, and daily CBCT acquisition with online analysis and repositioning. Results: Without corrections, 12 of 26 patients treated with radical radiation therapy would have experienced a gradual change (time trend) in primary tumor setup ≥4 mm in the craniocaudal (CC) direction during the fractionated treatment (11/12 in caudal direction, maximum 11 mm). Due to these trends, correction of primary tumor displacements with NAL resulted in large residual CC errors (required margin 6.7 mm). With the weekly correction vector adjustments in eNAL, the trends could be largely compensated (CC margin 3.5 mm). Correlation between movements of the primary and nodal clinical target volumes (CTVs) in the CC direction was poor (r 2 =0.15). Therefore, even with online setup corrections of the primary CTV, the required CC margin for the nodal CTV was as large as 6.8 mm. Also for the vertebrae, large time trends were observed for some patients. Because of poor CC correlation (r 2 =0.19) between displacements of the primary CTV and the vertebrae, even with daily online repositioning of the vertebrae, the required CC margin around the primary CTV was 6.9 mm. Conclusions: Laryngeal cancer patients showed substantial interfraction setup variations, including large time trends, and poor CC correlation between primary tumor displacements and motion of the nodes and vertebrae (internal tumor motion). These trends and nonrigid anatomy variations have to be considered in the choice of setup verification protocol and

  18. Time trends of esophageal and gastric cancer mortality in China, 1991?2009: an age-period-cohort analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Li, Mengmeng; Wan, Xia; Wang, Yanhong; Sun, Yuanyuan; Yang, Gonghuan; Wang, Li

    2017-01-01

    Esophageal and gastric cancers share some risk factors. This study aimed to compare the long-term trends in mortality rates of esophageal and gastric cancers in China to provide evidence for cancer prevention and control. Mortality data were derived from 103 continuous points of the Disease Surveillance Points system during 1991?2009, stratified by gender and urban-rural locations. Age-period-cohort models were used to disentangle the time trends of esophageal and gastric cancer mortality. Th...

  19. Evaluation of the influence of implant placement timing on the esthetic outcomes of single tooth implant treatment in the anterior maxilla: A retrospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arora, Himanshu; Ivanovski, Saso

    2018-05-15

    The purpose of this retrospective study was to investigate the influence of implant placement timing on the esthetic outcomes for single implants in the anterior maxilla. One hundred and ten patients (48 males; 62 females) who received a single-tooth implant after extraction either immediately (Type 1); after 4-8 weeks (Type 2); after 8-16 weeks (Type 3); or more than 16 weeks (Type 4) were evaluated in terms of esthetic outcomes after a mean post-placement interval of 26.3 months (range 12-116). Esthetic outcomes were measured using the Pink and White Esthetic Score (PES; WES). Stepwise regression analysis was performed to analyze the effect of timing of placement, as well as patient demographics and other clinical parameters on the esthetic outcomes. No statistically significantly differences in PES were found between the various treatment modalities with Type 1 implants (n = 33) scoring 10.58 ± 1.65 (median: 11), followed by 10.36 ± 2.09 (median: 10.5), 9.68 ± 2.43 (median: 10), and 9.63 ± 2.21 (median: 10) for Type 2 (n = 14), Type 3 (n = 19), and Type 4 (n = 44), respectively. For immediate implants, a trend towards better esthetic outcomes was observed when implant placement was done flaplessly in cases with intact buccal bone (Type 1A, median PES 11) as compared to cases with partial/complete missing buccal plates where a flap was raised (Type 1B, median PES 10). Overall, the only parameter that influenced esthetic outcomes (as measured by PES) was gender, with females having significantly superior results. The median WES was 8 and 96% of the crowns were deemed esthetically acceptable, with crowns placed by specialist prosthodontists yielding higher scores than those placed by general practitioners. Single tooth implants in the anterior maxilla showed satisfactory outcomes when measured with objective esthetic criteria. Timing of implant placement did not significantly influence the esthetic outcomes, although a trend

  20. Pattern and Distribution of Colorectal Cancer in Tanzania: A Retrospective Chart Audit at Two National Hospitals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leonard K. Katalambula

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Colorectal cancer (CRC is a growing public health concern with increasing rates in countries with previously known low incidence. This study determined pattern and distribution of CRC in Tanzania and identified hot spots in case distribution. Methods. A retrospective chart audit reviewed hospital registers and patient files from two national institutions. Descriptive statistics, Chi square (χ2 tests, and regression analyses were employed and augmented by data visualization to display risk variable differences. Results. CRC cases increased sixfold in the last decade in Tanzania. There was a 1.5% decrease in incidences levels of rectal cancer and 2% increase for colon cancer every year from 2005 to 2015. Nearly half of patients listed Dar es Salaam as their primary residence. CRC was equally distributed between males (50.06% and females (49.94%, although gender likelihood of diagnosis type (i.e., rectal or colon was significantly different (P=0.027. More than 60% of patients were between 40 and 69 years. Conclusions. Age (P=0.0183 and time (P=0.004 but not gender (P=0.0864 were significantly associated with rectal cancer in a retrospective study in Tanzania. Gender (P=0.0405, age (P=0.0015, and time (P=0.0075 were all significantly associated with colon cancer in this study. This retrospective study found that colon cancer is more prevalent among males at a relatively younger age than rectal cancer. Further, our study showed that although more patients were diagnosed with rectal cancer, the trend has shown that colon cancer is increasing at a faster rate.

  1. Pattern and Distribution of Colorectal Cancer in Tanzania: A Retrospective Chart Audit at Two National Hospitals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Katalambula, L. K.; Buza, J.; Mpolya, E.

    2016-01-01

    Colorectal cancer (CRC) is a growing public health concern with increasing rates in countries with previously known low incidence. This study determined pattern and distribution of CRC in Tanzania and identified hot spots in case distribution. Methods. A retrospective chart audit reviewed hospital registers and patient files from two national institutions. Descriptive statistics, Chi square (x 2 ) tests, and regression analyses were employed and augmented by data visualization to display risk variable differences. Results. CRC cases increased sixfold in the last decade in Tanzania. There was a 1.5% decrease in incidences levels of rectal cancer and 2% increase for colon cancer every year from 2005 to 2015. Nearly half of patients listed Dar es Salaam as their primary residence. CRC was equally distributed between males (50.06%) and females (49.94%), although gender likelihood of diagnosis type (i.e., rectal or colon) was significantly different ( P= 0.027). More than 60% of patients were between 40 and 69 years. Conclusions. Age ( P= 0.0183) and time () but not gender ( P = 0.0864) were significantly associated with rectal cancer in a retrospective study in Tanzania. Gender ( P = 0.0405), age ( P = 0.0015), and time ( P = 0.0075) were all significantly associated with colon cancer in this study. This retrospective study found that colon cancer is more prevalent among males at a relatively younger age than rectal cancer. Further, our study showed that although more patients were diagnosed with rectal cancer, the trend has shown that colon cancer is increasing at a faster rate.

  2. Characterization and adequacy of the use of radiotherapy and its trend in time

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Palacios Eito, Amalia; Cabezas, Sonia García; Font Ugalde, Pilar; Rivin del Campo, Eleonor; Otero Romero, Ana; Mar Pérez Martín, María del; Roldán Arjona, Juan Manuel; Martínez Paredes, María

    2013-01-01

    Background and purpose: Characterization of radiotherapy activity and its trend over time. Gathering of parameters for future planning of our resources, applicable to similar population areas. Performing a clinical audit of appropriate use of radiotherapy. Material and methods: Analysis of 9782 patients treated between 1998 and 2008. Descriptive statistics of pathologies and social/demographic characteristics. Intention of treatment. The rate of radiotherapy utilization was estimated and compared with those considered optimal. Rate of reirradiation. Results: The average global rate of radiotherapy utilization for the period was 32.7%. It increased by 23% between 1998 and 2008, while the population of the area rose by 1.04%, equaling an average 1.13 irradiations/1000 inhabitants/year. Radiation treatment has increased by 13.6, 2.3, 1.6 and 1.06 times in patients with prostate, breast, rectal and lung cancer, respectively. Eight percent of radiotherapy treatments involve concurrent chemotherapy. The proportion of treatments with palliative intent was 18.2%. The overall underutilization of radiation therapy in our environment was an estimated 13.4%. Conclusions: The grade of adequacy of radiation rates in relation with scientific evidence was globally considered suboptimal, especially in lung cancer. There was an upward trend of irradiation in breast and prostate cancer, tending toward rates considered optimal

  3. Vaginal birth after cesarean section—The world trend and local experience in Taiwan

    OpenAIRE

    Hsiu-Ting Tsai; Chia-Hsun Wu

    2017-01-01

    Objective: The trend of increasing cesarean section rates had evoked worldwide attention. Many approaches were introduced to diminish cesarean section rates. Vaginal birth after cesarean section (VBAC) is a route of delivery with diverse agreements. In this study, we try to reveal the world trend in VBAC and our experience of a 10-year period in a medical center in northern Taiwan. Materials and methods: This is a retrospective study of all women who underwent elective repeat cesarean deli...

  4. THE EFFECT OF DECOMPOSITION METHOD AS DATA PREPROCESSING ON NEURAL NETWORKS MODEL FOR FORECASTING TREND AND SEASONAL TIME SERIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Subanar Subanar

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Recently, one of the central topics for the neural networks (NN community is the issue of data preprocessing on the use of NN. In this paper, we will investigate this topic particularly on the effect of Decomposition method as data processing and the use of NN for modeling effectively time series with both trend and seasonal patterns. Limited empirical studies on seasonal time series forecasting with neural networks show that some find neural networks are able to model seasonality directly and prior deseasonalization is not necessary, and others conclude just the opposite. In this research, we study particularly on the effectiveness of data preprocessing, including detrending and deseasonalization by applying Decomposition method on NN modeling and forecasting performance. We use two kinds of data, simulation and real data. Simulation data are examined on multiplicative of trend and seasonality patterns. The results are compared to those obtained from the classical time series model. Our result shows that a combination of detrending and deseasonalization by applying Decomposition method is the effective data preprocessing on the use of NN for forecasting trend and seasonal time series.

  5. Local macroeconomic trends and hospital admissions for child abuse, 2000-2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Joanne N; Medina, Sheyla P; Feudtner, Chris; Luan, Xianqun; Localio, Russell; Fieldston, Evan S; Rubin, David M

    2012-08-01

    To examine the relationship between local macroeconomic indicators and physical abuse admission rates to pediatric hospitals over time. Retrospective study of children admitted to 38 hospitals in the Pediatric Hospital Information System database. Hospital data were linked to unemployment, mortgage delinquency, and foreclosure data for the associated metropolitan statistical areas. Primary outcomes were admission rates for (1) physical abuse in children <6 years old, (2) non-birth, non-motor vehicle crash-related traumatic brain injury (TBI) in infants <1 year old (which carry high risk for abuse), and (3) all-cause injuries. Poisson fixed-effects regression estimated trends in admission rates and associations between those rates and trends in unemployment, mortgage delinquency, and foreclosure. Between 2000 and 2009, rates of physical abuse and high-risk TBI admissions increased by 0.79% and 3.1% per year, respectively (P ≤ .02), whereas all-cause injury rates declined by 0.80% per year (P < .001). Abuse and high-risk TBI admission rates were associated with the current mortgage delinquency rate and with the change in delinquency and foreclosure rates from the previous year (P ≤ .03). Neither abuse nor high-risk TBI rates were associated with the current unemployment rate. The all-cause injury rate was negatively associated with unemployment, delinquency, and foreclosure rates (P ≤ .007). Multicenter hospital data show an increase in pediatric admissions for physical abuse and high-risk TBI during a time of declining all-cause injury rate. Abuse and high-risk TBI admission rates increased in relationship to local mortgage delinquency and foreclosure trends.

  6. Time trends in lifetime incidence rates of first-time diagnosed anorexia nervosa and bulimia nervosa across 16 years in a Danish nationwide psychiatric registry study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steinhausen, Hans-Christoph; Jensen, Christina Mohr

    2015-11-01

    To study recent time trends in the incidence of diagnosed anorexia nervosa (AN) and bulimia nervosa (BN) based on nationwide psychiatric register data. The Danish Psychiatric Central Research Registry was used to identify the incidence of diagnosed cases with AN and BN at the ages of 4-65 years from 1995 to 2010. Age- and sex-adjusted incidence rates per 100,000 person-years were calculated and were adjusted for time trends in the total number of people diagnosed in psychiatry. Time trends were analyzed using JoinPoint regression analysis. A total of N = 5,902 persons had a first-time incidence of AN, and a total of N = 5,113 had first-time incidence of BN. Incidence rates increased for AN from 6.4 to 12.6 per 100,000 person-years, and for BN from 6.3 to 7.2 per 100,000 person-years. In 2010, the male-to-female ratio was 1:8 for AN, and 1:20 for BN. There was an earlier onset for AN than for BN, and age at incidence decreased during the observation period for AN but not for BN. A sizeable part of the increasing incidence rates for AN and in particular, the younger AN age groups, could be attributed to an increase in the total number of N = 249,607 persons with first-time diagnoses in psychiatry. Incidence rates had increased slightly for AN, but were stable for BN across 16 years in this nationwide study and to a large extent were reflective of a general increase in diagnosed mental disorders. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  7. Reference population for international comparisons and time trend surveillance of preterm delivery proportions in three countries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Morken, N.H.; Vogel, I.; Kallen, K.

    2008-01-01

    BACKGROUND: International comparison and time trend surveillance of preterm delivery rates is complex. New techniques that could facilitate interpretation of such rates are needed. METHODS: We studied all live births and stillbirths (>or= 28 weeks gestation) registered in the medical birth...

  8. Analysis of trend in temperature and rainfall time series of an Indian arid region: comparative evaluation of salient techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Machiwal, Deepesh; Gupta, Ankit; Jha, Madan Kumar; Kamble, Trupti

    2018-04-01

    This study investigated trends in 35 years (1979-2013) temperature (maximum, Tmax and minimum, Tmin) and rainfall at annual and seasonal (pre-monsoon, monsoon, post-monsoon, and winter) scales for 31 grid points in a coastal arid region of India. Box-whisker plots of annual temperature and rainfall time series depict systematic spatial gradients. Trends were examined by applying eight tests, such as Kendall rank correlation (KRC), Spearman rank order correlation (SROC), Mann-Kendall (MK), four modified MK tests, and innovative trend analysis (ITA). Trend magnitudes were quantified by Sen's slope estimator, and a new method was adopted to assess the significance of linear trends in MK-test statistics. It was found that the significant serial correlation is prominent in the annual and post-monsoon Tmax and Tmin, and pre-monsoon Tmin. The KRC and MK tests yielded similar results in close resemblance with the SROC test. The performance of two modified MK tests considering variance-correction approaches was found superior to the KRC, MK, modified MK with pre-whitening, and ITA tests. The performance of original MK test is poor due to the presence of serial correlation, whereas the ITA method is over-sensitive in identifying trends. Significantly increasing trends are more prominent in Tmin than Tmax. Further, both the annual and monsoon rainfall time series have a significantly increasing trend of 9 mm year-1. The sequential significance of linear trend in MK test-statistics is very strong (R 2 ≥ 0.90) in the annual and pre-monsoon Tmin (90% grid points), and strong (R 2 ≥ 0.75) in monsoon Tmax (68% grid points), monsoon, post-monsoon, and winter Tmin (respectively 65, 55, and 48% grid points), as well as in the annual and monsoon rainfalls (respectively 68 and 61% grid points). Finally, this study recommends use of variance-corrected MK test for the precise identification of trends. It is emphasized that the rising Tmax may hamper crop growth due to enhanced

  9. Analysis of rainfall and temperature time series to detect long-term climatic trends and variability over semi-arid Botswana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byakatonda, Jimmy; Parida, B. P.; Kenabatho, Piet K.; Moalafhi, D. B.

    2018-03-01

    Arid and semi-arid environments have been identified with locations prone to impacts of climate variability and change. Investigating long-term trends is one way of tracing climate change impacts. This study investigates variability through annual and seasonal meteorological time series. Possible inhomogeneities and years of intervention are analysed using four absolute homogeneity tests. Trends in the climatic variables were determined using Mann-Kendall and Sen's Slope estimator statistics. Association of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with local climate is also investigated through multivariate analysis. Results from the study show that rainfall time series are fully homogeneous with 78.6 and 50% of the stations for maximum and minimum temperature, respectively, showing homogeneity. Trends also indicate a general decrease of 5.8, 7.4 and 18.1% in annual, summer and winter rainfall, respectively. Warming trends are observed in annual and winter temperature at 0.3 and 1.5% for maximum temperature and 1.7 and 6.5% for minimum temperature, respectively. Rainfall reported a positive correlation with Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and at the same time negative association with Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs). Strong relationships between SSTs and maximum temperature are observed during the El Niño and La Niña years. These study findings could facilitate planning and management of agricultural and water resources in Botswana.

  10. Presbycusis occurs after cochlear implantation also: a retrospective study of pure tone thresholds over time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trosman, Samuel; Matusik, Deanna Kattah; Ferro, Lia; Gao, Weihua; Saadia-Redleaf, Miriam

    2012-12-01

    To assess aided soundfield pure tone thresholds after cochlear implantation in adults over time. Retrospective case review. Academic tertiary care center. Seventy-seven severe-to-profoundly deafened adults implanted with one of 5 different internal devices. Cochlear implantation. Outcome measures were cochlear implant aided soundfield pure tone thresholds at 250, 500, 1,000, 2,000, 4,000, and 6,000 Hz. For the 77 adult patients in the study, pure tone aided thresholds deteriorated over time at 500, 1,000, 2,000, 4,000, and 6,000 Hz at rates ranging from 0.54 to 0.86 dB per year with the implant (p presbycusis, this deterioration is most prominent at the highest frequencies; however, the incidence and rate of deterioration is higher than that seen in presbycusis. These physiologic changes are not indicative of device failure and do not mean that performance measures will necessarily deteriorate.

  11. Antimicrobial resistance trends among Salmonella isolates obtained from horses in the northeastern United States (2001-2013).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cummings, Kevin J; Perkins, Gillian A; Khatibzadeh, Sarah M; Warnick, Lorin D; Aprea, Victor A; Altier, Craig

    2016-05-01

    OBJECTIVE To describe the antimicrobial resistance patterns of Salmonella isolates obtained from horses in the northeastern United States and to identify trends in resistance to select antimicrobials over time. SAMPLE 462 Salmonella isolates from horses. PROCEDURES Retrospective data were collected for all Salmonella isolates obtained from equine specimens that were submitted to the Cornell University Animal Health Diagnostic Center between January 1, 2001, and December 31, 2013. Temporal trends in the prevalence of resistant Salmonella isolates were investigated for each of 13 antimicrobials by use of the Cochran-Armitage trend test. RESULTS The prevalence of resistant isolates varied among antimicrobials and ranged from 0% (imipenem) to 51.5% (chloramphenicol). During the observation period, the prevalence of resistant isolates decreased significantly for amoxicillin-clavulanic acid, ampicillin, cefazolin, cefoxitin, ceftiofur, chloramphenicol, and tetracycline and remained negligible for amikacin and enrofloxacin. Of the 337 isolates for which the susceptibility to all 13 antimicrobials was determined, 138 (40.9%) were pansusceptible and 192 (57.0%) were multidrug resistant (resistant to ≥ 3 antimicrobial classes). The most common serovar isolated was Salmonella Newport, and although the annual prevalence of that serovar decreased significantly over time, that decrease had only a minimal effect on the observed antimicrobial resistance trends. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE Results suggested that current antimicrobial use in horses is not promoting the emergence and dissemination of antimicrobial-resistant Salmonella strains in the region served by the laboratory.

  12. Secular Trends on Birth Parameters, Growth, and Pubertal Timing in Girls with Turner Syndrome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joachim Woelfle

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available BackgroundWhether children with chromosomal disorders of growth and puberty are affected by secular trends (STs as observed in the general population remains unanswered, but this question has relevance for expectations of spontaneous development and treatment responses.ObjectivesThe aim of the study was to evaluate STs in birth parameters, growth, and pubertal development in girls with Turner syndrome (TS.Study designRetrospective analysis of KIGS data (Pfizer International Growth Database. We included all TS patients who entered KIGS between 1987 and 2012 and were born from 1975 to 2004, who were prepubertal and growth treatment naïve at first entry (total number: 7,219. Pretreatment height and ages at the start of treatment were compared across 5-year birth year groups, with subgroup analyses stratified by induced or spontaneous puberty start.ResultsWe observed significant STs across the birth year groups for birth weight [+0.18 SD score (SDS, p < 0.001], pretreatment height at mean age 8 years (+0.73 SDS, p < 0.001, height at the start of growth hormone (GH therapy (+0.38 SDS, p < 0.001 and start of puberty (+0.42 SDS, p < 0.001. Spontaneous puberty onset increased from 15 to 30% (p < 0.001. Mean age at the start of GH treatment decreased from 10.8 to 7.4 years (−3.4 years; p < 0.001, and substantial declines were seen in ages at onset of spontaneous and induced puberty (−2.0 years; p < 0.001 and menarche (−2.1 years; p < 0.001.ConclusionEnvironmental changes leading to increased height and earlier and also more common, spontaneous puberty are applicable in TS as in normal girls. In addition, greater awareness for TS may underlie trends to earlier start of GH therapy and induction of puberty at a more physiological age.

  13. Trends in leisure time physical activity, smoking, body mass index and alcohol consumption in Danish adults with and without diabetes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Molsted, Stig; Johnsen, Nina Føns; Snorgaard, Ole

    2014-01-01

    AIMS: In recent decades there has been an increased focus on non-pharmacological treatment of diabetes. The aim of this study was to investigate trends in leisure time physical activity (PA), smoking, body mass index (BMI), and alcohol consumption reported in 2000, 2005 and 2010 by Danish subjects......-sectional analyses from 2000, 2005 and 2010. RESULTS: In participants with diabetes, leisure time PA levels increased from 2000 to 2010: The percentage of those that were physically active increased from 53.5% to 78.2% (p... in participants with diabetes compared to participants without diabetes throughout the study. CONCLUSIONS: The percentage of physically active Danish participants older than 45 years with diabetes increased from 2000 to 2010, and the most beneficial trends in life style were observed among the women. These trends...

  14. A Retrospective Study of Success, Failure, and Time Needed to Perform Awake Intubation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joseph, Thomas T; Gal, Jonathan S; DeMaria, Samuel; Lin, Hung-Mo; Levine, Adam I; Hyman, Jaime B

    2016-07-01

    Awake intubation is the standard of care for management of the anticipated difficult airway. The performance of awake intubation may be perceived as complex and time-consuming, potentially leading clinicians to avoid this technique of airway management. This retrospective review of awake intubations at a large academic medical center was performed to determine the average time taken to perform awake intubation, its effects on hemodynamics, and the incidence and characteristics of complications and failure. Anesthetic records from 2007 to 2014 were queried for the performance of an awake intubation. Of the 1,085 awake intubations included for analysis, 1,055 involved the use of a flexible bronchoscope. Each awake intubation case was propensity matched with two controls (1:2 ratio), with similar comorbidities and intubations performed after the induction of anesthesia (n = 2,170). The time from entry into the operating room until intubation was compared between groups. The anesthetic records of all patients undergoing awake intubation were also reviewed for failure and complications. The median time to intubation for patients intubated post induction was 16.0 min (interquartile range: 13 to 22) from entrance into the operating room. The median time to intubation for awake patients was 24.0 min (interquartile range: 19 to 31). The complication rate was 1.6% (17 of 1,085 cases). The most frequent complications observed were mucous plug, endotracheal tube cuff leak, and inadvertent extubation. The failure rate for attempted awake intubation was 1% (n = 10). Awake intubations have a high rate of success and low rate of serious complications and failure. Awake intubations can be performed safely and rapidly.

  15. Socioeconomic differences in waiting times for elective surgery: a population-based retrospective study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petrelli Alessio

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Widespread literature on inequity in healthcare access and utilization has been published, but research on socioeconomic differences in waiting times is sparse and the evidence is fragmentary and controversial. The objective of the present study is the analysis of the relationship between individual socioeconomic level and waiting times for in-hospital elective surgery. Methods We retrospectively studied the waiting times experienced by patients registered on hospital waiting lists for 6 important surgical procedures by using the Hospital Discharge Database (HDD of the Piedmont Region (4,000,000 inhabitants in the North West of Italy from 2006 to 2008. The surgical procedures analyzed were: coronary artery by-pass (CABG, angioplasty, coronarography, endarterectomy, hip replacement and cholecystectomy. Cox regression models were estimated to study the relationship between waiting times and educational level taking into account the confounding effect of the following factors: sex, age, comorbidity, registration period, and Local Health Authorities (LHA as a proxy of supply. Results Median waiting times for low educational level were higher than for high educational level for all the selected procedures. Differences were particularly high for endarterectomy and hip replacement. For all considered procedures, except CABG, an inverse gradient between waiting times and educational level was observed: the conditional probabilities of undergoing surgery were lower among individuals with a low to middle level education than for individuals with a higher level of education after adjustment for sex, age, comorbidities, registration period, and LHAs. For most procedures the effect decreases over the follow up period. Conclusions The results of the study show evidence of inequalities in access to elective surgery in Italy. Implementation of policies aimed to promote national information initiatives that guarantee wider access to those

  16. [Time trend study of firearm mortality in Argentina, 1980-2012].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spinelli, Hugo; Santoro, Adrián; Guevel, Carlos; Alazraqui, Marcio

    2015-06-01

    This work analyzes the impact of firearm mortality between 1980 and 2012 in Argentina. For this purpose a descriptive epidemiological time trend study was carried out including the following variables: sex, age group, intentionality and jurisdiction. Data was obtained from the Office of Health Statistics and Information of the Argentine Ministry of Health. A total of 87,671 deaths due to firearms were discovered, of which 85.7% occurred in men. The highest mortality rate due to firearms corresponded to the year 2002, reaching 21.2 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants. The age group concentrating the largest number of deaths due to firearms was that of 20-29 years, accounting for 25.6% of all deaths. The highest adjusted rates corresponded to the years 2000-2002, with values of 10.0 to 11.6 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants. This time period coincides with the institutional-economic crisis the country experienced. The province of Buenos Aires was the place of residence of 49.1% of the deceased. In the discussion, political-economic and ideological-cultural dimensions of the relations among firearms, violence, science and society are considered.

  17. Pre and post PET-CT impact on oesophageal cancer management: a retrospective analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azmi, NA; Razak, HRA; Vinjamuri, S.

    2017-05-01

    Assessment of the retrospective cancer incidence, prevalence and crude survival rates of oesophageal cancer to allow comparison between pre and post PET-CT introduction are part of 4 phase cost effectiveness research. It will provide baseline data for to assess PET or PET-CT cost effective potential for staging. A total of 849 patient’s data received from NWCIS databases with various stages of oesophageal cancer between 2001 and 2008. The fundamental activities are retrospective analysis of patient data. In most cases where appropriate, results are presented with 95 percent confidence intervals (CI). Variances between patient groups and variables are assessed using chi-square test. In cases where it deems vital, multiple logistic regression are used to modify for potential confounder such as age and sex. All p-values are two-sided and any value lower than 0.05 were considered to suggest a statistically significant result. Retrospective analysis were categorised into two categories, patients from 2001-2003 considered as pre PET and post PET for 2004-2008. This categorisation allows better comparison of patients’ survival trend to be made between both groups. Rates are presented in percentages and being grouped by tumour characteristics and other variables associated with demographic profile, diagnosis, staging and treatment. Results allowed comparison of oesophageal cancer trends between the pre and post PET-CT introduction such as changes in incidence rate or changes in survival. These data were used to normalise the decision tree model so that cost-effectiveness analysis can be performed across the whole population.

  18. Pre and post PET-CT impact on oesophageal cancer management: a retrospective analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Azmi, NA; Razak, HRA; Vinjamuri, S

    2017-01-01

    Assessment of the retrospective cancer incidence, prevalence and crude survival rates of oesophageal cancer to allow comparison between pre and post PET-CT introduction are part of 4 phase cost effectiveness research. It will provide baseline data for to assess PET or PET-CT cost effective potential for staging. A total of 849 patient’s data received from NWCIS databases with various stages of oesophageal cancer between 2001 and 2008. The fundamental activities are retrospective analysis of patient data. In most cases where appropriate, results are presented with 95 percent confidence intervals (CI). Variances between patient groups and variables are assessed using chi-square test. In cases where it deems vital, multiple logistic regression are used to modify for potential confounder such as age and sex. All p-values are two-sided and any value lower than 0.05 were considered to suggest a statistically significant result. Retrospective analysis were categorised into two categories, patients from 2001-2003 considered as pre PET and post PET for 2004-2008. This categorisation allows better comparison of patients’ survival trend to be made between both groups. Rates are presented in percentages and being grouped by tumour characteristics and other variables associated with demographic profile, diagnosis, staging and treatment. Results allowed comparison of oesophageal cancer trends between the pre and post PET-CT introduction such as changes in incidence rate or changes in survival. These data were used to normalise the decision tree model so that cost-effectiveness analysis can be performed across the whole population. (paper)

  19. Portrayal of tobacco use in prime-time TV dramas: trends and associations with adult cigarette consumption--USA, 1955-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jamieson, Patrick E; Romer, Daniel

    2015-05-01

    Although portrayal of television (TV) and movie tobacco use has been linked with initiation of cigarette smoking in adolescents, its association with smoking in adults has not been assessed. Therefore, we examined long-term and annual changes in tobacco portrayal in popular US TV dramas and their associations with comparable trends in national adult cigarette consumption. Tobacco use in 1838 h of popular US TV dramas was coded from 1955-2010. The long-term trend and annual deviations from trend were studied in relation to comparable trends in adult per capita cigarette consumption using correlational and time-series methods that controlled for other potential predictors. TV tobacco portrayal has trended downward since 1955 in line with the historical trend in cigarette consumption. Controlling for changes in cigarette prices and other factors, annual changes of one tobacco instance per episode hour across 2 years of programming were associated with annual change of 38.5 cigarettes per US adult. The decline in TV tobacco portrayal was associated with nearly half the effect of increases in cigarette prices over the study period. The correlation between tobacco portrayal in TV dramas and adult cigarette consumption is consistent with well-established effects of exposure to tobacco cues that create craving for cigarettes in adult smokers. Although tobacco use in TV dramas along with movies has declined over time, portrayal of smoking on screen media should be a focus for future adult tobacco control research and policy. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  20. The State and Trends of Barcode, RFID, Biometric and Pharmacy Automation Technologies in US Hospitals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uy, Raymonde Charles Y.; Kury, Fabricio P.; Fontelo, Paul A.

    2015-01-01

    The standard of safe medication practice requires strict observance of the five rights of medication administration: the right patient, drug, time, dose, and route. Despite adherence to these guidelines, medication errors remain a public health concern that has generated health policies and hospital processes that leverage automation and computerization to reduce these errors. Bar code, RFID, biometrics and pharmacy automation technologies have been demonstrated in literature to decrease the incidence of medication errors by minimizing human factors involved in the process. Despite evidence suggesting the effectivity of these technologies, adoption rates and trends vary across hospital systems. The objective of study is to examine the state and adoption trends of automatic identification and data capture (AIDC) methods and pharmacy automation technologies in U.S. hospitals. A retrospective descriptive analysis of survey data from the HIMSS Analytics® Database was done, demonstrating an optimistic growth in the adoption of these patient safety solutions. PMID:26958264

  1. The State and Trends of Barcode, RFID, Biometric and Pharmacy Automation Technologies in US Hospitals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uy, Raymonde Charles Y; Kury, Fabricio P; Fontelo, Paul A

    2015-01-01

    The standard of safe medication practice requires strict observance of the five rights of medication administration: the right patient, drug, time, dose, and route. Despite adherence to these guidelines, medication errors remain a public health concern that has generated health policies and hospital processes that leverage automation and computerization to reduce these errors. Bar code, RFID, biometrics and pharmacy automation technologies have been demonstrated in literature to decrease the incidence of medication errors by minimizing human factors involved in the process. Despite evidence suggesting the effectivity of these technologies, adoption rates and trends vary across hospital systems. The objective of study is to examine the state and adoption trends of automatic identification and data capture (AIDC) methods and pharmacy automation technologies in U.S. hospitals. A retrospective descriptive analysis of survey data from the HIMSS Analytics® Database was done, demonstrating an optimistic growth in the adoption of these patient safety solutions.

  2. Trends in the Use of Medical Imaging to Diagnose Appendicitis at an Academic Medical Center.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Repplinger, Michael D; Weber, Andrew C; Pickhardt, Perry J; Rajamanickam, Victoria P; Svenson, James E; Ehlenbach, William J; Westergaard, Ryan P; Reeder, Scott B; Jacobs, Elizabeth A

    2016-09-01

    To quantify the trends in imaging use for the diagnosis of appendicitis. A retrospective study covering a 22-year period was conducted at an academic medical center. Patients were identified by International Classification of Diseases-9 diagnosis code for appendicitis. Medical record data extraction of these patients included imaging test used (ultrasound, CT, or MRI), gender, age, and body mass index (BMI). The proportion of patients undergoing each scan was calculated by year. Regression analysis was performed to determine whether age, gender, or BMI affected imaging choice. The study included a total of 2,108 patients, including 967 (43.5%) females and 599 (27%) children (imaging used for the diagnosis of appendicitis decreased over time (P medical center, CT use increased more than 20-fold. However, no statistically significant trend was found for increased use of ultrasound or MRI. Copyright © 2016 American College of Radiology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. A radial sampling strategy for uniform k-space coverage with retrospective respiratory gating in 3D ultrashort-echo-time lung imaging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Jinil; Shin, Taehoon; Yoon, Soon Ho; Goo, Jin Mo; Park, Jang-Yeon

    2016-05-01

    The purpose of this work was to develop a 3D radial-sampling strategy which maintains uniform k-space sample density after retrospective respiratory gating, and demonstrate its feasibility in free-breathing ultrashort-echo-time lung MRI. A multi-shot, interleaved 3D radial sampling function was designed by segmenting a single-shot trajectory of projection views such that each interleaf samples k-space in an incoherent fashion. An optimal segmentation factor for the interleaved acquisition was derived based on an approximate model of respiratory patterns such that radial interleaves are evenly accepted during the retrospective gating. The optimality of the proposed sampling scheme was tested by numerical simulations and phantom experiments using human respiratory waveforms. Retrospectively, respiratory-gated, free-breathing lung MRI with the proposed sampling strategy was performed in healthy subjects. The simulation yielded the most uniform k-space sample density with the optimal segmentation factor, as evidenced by the smallest standard deviation of the number of neighboring samples as well as minimal side-lobe energy in the point spread function. The optimality of the proposed scheme was also confirmed by minimal image artifacts in phantom images. Human lung images showed that the proposed sampling scheme significantly reduced streak and ring artifacts compared with the conventional retrospective respiratory gating while suppressing motion-related blurring compared with full sampling without respiratory gating. In conclusion, the proposed 3D radial-sampling scheme can effectively suppress the image artifacts due to non-uniform k-space sample density in retrospectively respiratory-gated lung MRI by uniformly distributing gated radial views across the k-space. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  4. Characterization of Land Transitions Patterns from Multivariate Time Series Using Seasonal Trend Analysis and Principal Component Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benoit Parmentier

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Characterizing biophysical changes in land change areas over large regions with short and noisy multivariate time series and multiple temporal parameters remains a challenging task. Most studies focus on detection rather than the characterization, i.e., the manner by which surface state variables are altered by the process of changes. In this study, a procedure is presented to extract and characterize simultaneous temporal changes in MODIS multivariate times series from three surface state variables the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI, land surface temperature (LST and albedo (ALB. The analysis involves conducting a seasonal trend analysis (STA to extract three seasonal shape parameters (Amplitude 0, Amplitude 1 and Amplitude 2 and using principal component analysis (PCA to contrast trends in change and no-change areas. We illustrate the method by characterizing trends in burned and unburned pixels in Alaska over the 2001–2009 time period. Findings show consistent and meaningful extraction of temporal patterns related to fire disturbances. The first principal component (PC1 is characterized by a decrease in mean NDVI (Amplitude 0 with a concurrent increase in albedo (the mean and the annual amplitude and an increase in LST annual variability (Amplitude 1. These results provide systematic empirical evidence of surface changes associated with one type of land change, fire disturbances, and suggest that STA with PCA may be used to characterize many other types of land transitions over large landscape areas using multivariate Earth observation time series.

  5. Trends in single women with malignancy of the uterine cervix in United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Machida, Hiroko; Blake, Erin A; Eckhardt, Sarah E; Takiuchi, Tsuyoshi; Grubbs, Brendan H; Mikami, Mikio; Roman, Lynda D; Matsuo, Koji

    2018-03-01

    To examine trends and characteristics of single women with malignancy of the uterine cervix. This is a retrospective observational study examining the United States population-based tumor registry (the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program). Time-specific trends in single marital status were examined in 3,294,208 women among 12 common female malignancies including 87,151 women with uterine cervical malignancy between 1973 and 2013. While the proportion of single women in the majority of malignancies increased during the study time, the proportion of single women with cervical malignancy significantly increased more than in other malignancies (29.3% in 2013 from 6.3% in 1973). There was a surge in the proportion of single women with cervical malignancy starting in the early 1990s, exhibiting the largest annual percentage rate change (APC) among all examined malignancies (1.8%; 95% confidence interval [CI]=1.6, 2.0; pwomen aged single women aged ≥40 years increased significantly during the time (APC, 2.7%; 95% CI=2.3, 3.2; psingle women with malignancy of the uterine cervix has significantly increased in the past 4 decades. This increase was most dramatic in single women aged ≥40 years. Improving screening strategies in single women aged ≥40 years may help reduce the incidence of this malignancy. Copyright © 2018. Asian Society of Gynecologic Oncology, Korean Society of Gynecologic Oncology

  6. OceanNOMADS: Real-time and retrospective access to operational U.S. ocean prediction products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harding, J. M.; Cross, S. L.; Bub, F.; Ji, M.

    2011-12-01

    The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Operational Model Archive and Distribution System (NOMADS) provides both real-time and archived atmospheric model output from servers at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) respectively (http://nomads.ncep.noaa.gov/txt_descriptions/marRutledge-1.pdf). The NOAA National Ocean Data Center (NODC) with NCEP is developing a complementary capability called OceanNOMADS for operational ocean prediction models. An NCEP ftp server currently provides real-time ocean forecast output (http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/newNCOM/NCOM_currents.shtml) with retrospective access through NODC. A joint effort between the Northern Gulf Institute (NGI; a NOAA Cooperative Institute) and the NOAA National Coastal Data Development Center (NCDDC; a division of NODC) created the developmental version of the retrospective OceanNOMADS capability (http://www.northerngulfinstitute.org/edac/ocean_nomads.php) under the NGI Ecosystem Data Assembly Center (EDAC) project (http://www.northerngulfinstitute.org/edac/). Complementary funding support for the developmental OceanNOMADS from U.S. Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS) through the Southeastern University Research Association (SURA) Model Testbed (http://testbed.sura.org/) this past year provided NODC the analogue that facilitated the creation of an NCDDC production version of OceanNOMADS (http://www.ncddc.noaa.gov/ocean-nomads/). Access tool development and storage of initial archival data sets occur on the NGI/NCDDC developmental servers with transition to NODC/NCCDC production servers as the model archives mature and operational space and distribution capability grow. Navy operational global ocean forecast subsets for U.S waters comprise the initial ocean prediction fields resident on the NCDDC production server. The NGI/NCDDC developmental server currently includes the Naval Research Laboratory Inter-America Seas

  7. Automated data extraction from general practice records in an Australian setting: trends in influenza-like illness in sentinel general practices and emergency departments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liljeqvist, Gösta T H; Staff, Michael; Puech, Michele; Blom, Hans; Torvaldsen, Siranda

    2011-06-06

    Influenza intelligence in New South Wales (NSW), Australia is derived mainly from emergency department (ED) presentations and hospital and intensive care admissions, which represent only a portion of influenza-like illness (ILI) in the population. A substantial amount of the remaining data lies hidden in general practice (GP) records. Previous attempts in Australia to gather ILI data from GPs have given them extra work. We explored the possibility of applying automated data extraction from GP records in sentinel surveillance in an Australian setting.The two research questions asked in designing the study were: Can syndromic ILI data be extracted automatically from routine GP data? How do ILI trends in sentinel general practice compare with ILI trends in EDs? We adapted a software program already capable of automated data extraction to identify records of patients with ILI in routine electronic GP records in two of the most commonly used commercial programs. This tool was applied in sentinel sites to gather retrospective data for May-October 2007-2009 and in real-time for the same interval in 2010. The data were compared with that provided by the Public Health Real-time Emergency Department Surveillance System (PHREDSS) and with ED data for the same periods. The GP surveillance tool identified seasonal trends in ILI both retrospectively and in near real-time. The curve of seasonal ILI was more responsive and less volatile than that of PHREDSS on a local area level. The number of weekly ILI presentations ranged from 8 to 128 at GP sites and from 0 to 18 in EDs in non-pandemic years. Automated data extraction from routine GP records offers a means to gather data without introducing any additional work for the practitioner. Adding this method to current surveillance programs will enhance their ability to monitor ILI and to detect early warning signals of new ILI events.

  8. Time trend and age-period-cohort effect on kidney cancer mortality in Europe, 1981–2000

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    López-Abente Gonzalo

    2006-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The incorporation of diagnostic and therapeutic improvements, as well as the different smoking patterns, may have had an influence on the observed variability in renal cancer mortality across Europe. This study examined time trends in kidney cancer mortality in fourteen European countries during the last two decades of the 20th century. Methods Kidney cancer deaths and population estimates for each country during the period 1981–2000 were drawn from the World Health Organization Mortality Database. Age- and period-adjusted mortality rates, as well as annual percentage changes in age-adjusted mortality rates, were calculated for each country and geographical region. Log-linear Poisson models were also fitted to study the effect of age, death period, and birth cohort on kidney cancer mortality rates within each country. Results For men, the overall standardized kidney cancer mortality rates in the eastern, western, and northern European countries were 20, 25, and 53% higher than those for the southern European countries, respectively. However, age-adjusted mortality rates showed a significant annual decrease of -0.7% in the north of Europe, a moderate rise of 0.7% in the west, and substantial increases of 1.4% in the south and 2.0% in the east. This trend was similar among women, but with lower mortality rates. Age-period-cohort models showed three different birth-cohort patterns for both men and women: a decrease in mortality trend for those generations born after 1920 in the Nordic countries, a similar but lagged decline for cohorts born after 1930 in western and southern European countries, and a continuous increase throughout all birth cohorts in eastern Europe. Similar but more heterogeneous regional patterns were observed for period effects. Conclusion Kidney cancer mortality trends in Europe showed a clear north-south pattern, with high rates on a downward trend in the north, intermediate rates on a more marked rising

  9. Trends in stroke hospitalisation rates and in-hospital mortality in Aragon, 1998-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giménez-Muñoz, A; Ara, J R; Abad Díez, J M; Campello Morer, I; Pérez Trullén, J M

    2018-05-01

    Despite the impact of cerebrovascular disease (CVD) on global health, its morbidity and time trends in Spain are not precisely known. The purpose of our study was to characterise the epidemiology and trends pertaining to stroke in Aragon over the period 1998-2010. We conducted a retrospective, descriptive study using the data of the Spanish health system's Minimum Data Set and included all stroke patients admitted to acute care hospitals in Aragon between 1 January 1998 and 31 December 2010. We present data globally and broken down by stroke subtype, sex, and age group. The number of cases increased by 13% whereas age- and sex-adjusted hospitalisation rates showed a significant decrease for all types of stroke (mean annual decrease of 1.6%). Men and women in younger age groups showed opposite trends in hospitalisation rates for ischaemic stroke. Case fatality rate at 28 days (17.9%) was higher in patients with intracerebral haemorrhage (35.8%) than in those with subarachnoid haemorrhage (26.2%) or ischaemic stroke (13%). CVD case fatality showed a mean annual decline of 2.8%, at the expense of the fatality rate of ischaemic stroke, and it was more pronounced in men than in women. Understanding stroke epidemiology and trends at the regional level will help establish an efficient monitoring system and design appropriate strategies for health planning. Copyright © 2016 Sociedad Española de Neurología. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  10. Trends and variability in streamflow and snowmelt runoff timing in the southern Tianshan Mountains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Yan-Jun; Shen, Yanjun; Fink, Manfred; Kralisch, Sven; Chen, Yaning; Brenning, Alexander

    2018-02-01

    Streamflow and snowmelt runoff timing of mountain rivers are susceptible to climate change. Trends and variability in streamflow and snowmelt runoff timing in four mountain basins in the southern Tianshan were analyzed in this study. Streamflow trends were detected by Mann-Kendall tests and changes in snowmelt runoff timing were analyzed based on the winter/spring snowmelt runoff center time (WSCT). Pearson's correlation coefficient was further calculated to analyze the relationships between climate variables, streamflow and WSCT. Annual streamflow increased significantly in past decades in the southern Tianshan, especially in spring and winter months. However, the relations between streamflow and temperature/precipitation depend on the different streamflow generation processes. Annual precipitation plays a vital role in controlling recharge in the Toxkon basin, while the Kaidu and Huangshuigou basins are governed by both precipitation and temperature. Seasonally, temperature has a strong effect on streamflow in autumn and winter, while summer streamflow appears more sensitive to changes in precipitation. However, temperature is the dominant factor for streamflow in the glacierized Kunmalik basin at annual and seasonal scales. An uptrend in streamflow begins in the 1990s at both annual and seasonal scales, which is generally consistent with temperature and precipitation fluctuations. Average WSCT dates in the Kaidu and Huangshuigou basins are earlier than in the Toxkon and Kunmalik basins, and shifted towards earlier dates since the mid-1980s in all the basins. It is plausible that WSCT dates are more sensitive to warmer temperature in spring period compared to precipitation, except for the Huangshuigou basin. Taken together, these findings are useful for applications in flood risk regulation, future hydropower projects and integrated water resources management.

  11. Time trends in upper gastrointestinal diseases and Helicobacter pylori infection in a multiracial Asian population--a 20-year experience over three time periods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leow, A H-R; Lim, Y-Y; Liew, W-C; Goh, K-L

    2016-04-01

    Marked epidemiological changes in upper gastrointestinal diseases and Helicobacter pylori infection have taken place in the Asian Pacific region. In particular, differences with respect to race in the multiracial Asian population in Malaysia have been important and interesting. A time trend study of upper gastrointestinal disease and H. pylori infection in three time periods: 1989-1990, 1999-2000 and 2009-2010 spanning a period of 20 years was carried out. Consecutive first time gastroscopies carried out on patients attending the University of Malaya Medical Center were studied. Diagnoses and H. pylori infection status were carefully recorded. A steady decline in prevalence of duodenal ulcer (DU) and gastric ulcer (GU) from 21.1% to 9.5% to 5.0% and from 11.9% to 9.4% to 9.9% while an increase in erosive oesophagitis (EO) from 2.0% to 8.4% to 9.5% (chi-square for trend; P Chinese and Indians but the difference over time was most marked in Malays. There was a steady decline in the proportion of patients with gastric and oesophageal cancers. Peptic ulcers have declined significantly over a 20-year period together with a decline in H. pylori infection. In contrast, a steady increase in erosive oesophagitis was observed. Gastric and oesophageal squamous cell cancers have declined to low levels. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  12. Genomic epidemiology of a major Mycobacterium tuberculosis outbreak: Retrospective cohort study in a low incidence setting using sparse time-series sampling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Folkvardsen, Dorte Bek; Norman, Anders; Andersen, Åse Bengård

    2017-01-01

    cases belonging to this outbreak via routine MIRU-VNTR typing. Here, we present a retrospective analysis of the C2/1112-15 dataset, based on whole-genome data from a sparse time-series consisting of five randomly selected isolates from each of the 23 years. Even if these data are derived from only 12...

  13. Which Trend is your Friend?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Levine, Ari; Heje Pedersen, Lasse

    2016-01-01

    Managed futures funds and commodity trading advisers (CTAs) use heuristics or statistical measures often called “filters” to trade on price trends. Two key statistical measures of trends are “time-series momentum” and “moving-average crossovers.” We show, empirically and theoretically, that these......Managed futures funds and commodity trading advisers (CTAs) use heuristics or statistical measures often called “filters” to trade on price trends. Two key statistical measures of trends are “time-series momentum” and “moving-average crossovers.” We show, empirically and theoretically......, that these trend indicators are closely related. In fact, they are equivalent representations in their most general forms. They also capture many other types of filters, such as the Hodrick–Prescott (HP) filter, the Kalman filter, and all other linear filters. We show how these filters can be represented through...

  14. Application of the Trend Filtering Algorithm for Photometric Time Series Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gopalan, Giri; Plavchan, Peter; van Eyken, Julian; Ciardi, David; von Braun, Kaspar; Kane, Stephen R.

    2016-08-01

    Detecting transient light curves (e.g., transiting planets) requires high-precision data, and thus it is important to effectively filter systematic trends affecting ground-based wide-field surveys. We apply an implementation of the Trend Filtering Algorithm (TFA) to the 2MASS calibration catalog and select Palomar Transient Factory (PTF) photometric time series data. TFA is successful at reducing the overall dispersion of light curves, however, it may over-filter intrinsic variables and increase “instantaneous” dispersion when a template set is not judiciously chosen. In an attempt to rectify these issues we modify the original TFA from the literature by including measurement uncertainties in its computation, including ancillary data correlated with noise, and algorithmically selecting a template set using clustering algorithms as suggested by various authors. This approach may be particularly useful for appropriately accounting for variable photometric precision surveys and/or combined data sets. In summary, our contributions are to provide a MATLAB software implementation of TFA and a number of modifications tested on synthetics and real data, summarize the performance of TFA and various modifications on real ground-based data sets (2MASS and PTF), and assess the efficacy of TFA and modifications using synthetic light curve tests consisting of transiting and sinusoidal variables. While the transiting variables test indicates that these modifications confer no advantage to transit detection, the sinusoidal variables test indicates potential improvements in detection accuracy.

  15. Characteristics and trends of radiology research: a survey of original articles published in AJR and Radiology between 2001 and 2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Kyoung Ja; Yoon, Dae Young; Yun, Eun Joo; Seo, Young Lan; Baek, Sora; Gu, Dong Hyeon; Yoon, Soo Jeong; Han, Ari; Ku, You Jin; Kim, Sam Soo

    2012-09-01

    To determine the characteristics and trends of the original articles published in two major American radiology journals, AJR American Journal of Roentgenology (AJR) and Radiology, between 2001 and 2010. This was a retrospective bibliometric analysis that did not involve human subjects and was exempt from institutional review board approval. All 6542 original articles published in AJR and Radiology between 2001 and 2010 were evaluated. The following information was abstracted from each article: radiologic subspecialty, radiologic technique used, type of research, sample size, study design, statistical analysis, study outcome, declared funding, number of authors, affiliation of the first author, and country of the first author. In addition, all the variables examined were presented along with the trend over time. The most common subspecialty of study was abdominal (1219 of 6542, 18.6%), followed by vascular/interventional (804 of 6542, 12.3%). A total of 3744 (57.2%) original articles used magnetic resonance (MR) imaging or computed tomography (CT), 5495 (84.1%) were clinical research articles, 3060 (46.8%) had sample size of more than 50, 4087 (62.5%) were retrospective, 4714 (72.1%) performed statistical analysis, 6225 (95.2%) showed positive study outcome, 4784 (73.1%) were not funded, 3942 (60.3%) had four to seven authors, and 5731 (87.6%) were written by the primary author who was from a department of radiology or radiology-related specialties. The United States published 45.5% (2975 of 6542) of the articles, followed by Japan (n = 525, 8.0%), Germany (n = 485, 7.4%), and South Korea (n = 455, 7.0%). In the time trend analysis, the following variables showed a significantly positive trend: cardiac subspecialty, CT and MR imaging as the radiologic techniques, type of research as other (nonbasic, nonclinical), sample size of more than 50, four to seven as the number of authors, medicine-related department of the first author, and South Korea and Italy as

  16. A shell-neutral modeling approach yields sustainable oyster harvest estimates: a retrospective analysis of the Louisiana state primary seed grounds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soniat, Thomas M.; Klinck, John M.; Powell, Eric N.; Cooper, Nathan; Abdelguerfi, Mahdi; Hofmann, Eileen E.; Dahal, Janak; Tu, Shengru; Finigan, John; Eberline, Benjamin S.; La Peyre, Jerome F.; LaPeyre, Megan K.; Qaddoura, Fareed

    2012-01-01

    A numerical model is presented that defines a sustainability criterion as no net loss of shell, and calculates a sustainable harvest of seed (<75 mm) and sack or market oysters (≥75 mm). Stock assessments of the Primary State Seed Grounds conducted east of the Mississippi from 2009 to 2011 show a general trend toward decreasing abundance of sack and seed oysters. Retrospective simulations provide estimates of annual sustainable harvests. Comparisons of simulated sustainable harvests with actual harvests show a trend toward unsustainable harvests toward the end of the time series. Stock assessments combined with shell-neutral models can be used to estimate sustainable harvest and manage cultch through shell planting when actual harvest exceeds sustainable harvest. For exclusive restoration efforts (no fishing allowed), the model provides a metric for restoration success-namely, shell accretion. Oyster fisheries that remove shell versus reef restorations that promote shell accretion, although divergent in their goals, are convergent in their management; both require vigilant attention to shell budgets.

  17. RETROSPECTIVE DATA COLLECTION: CAN STUDENTS REMEMBER?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul Leeming

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract: It is not always possible or practical to gather data over a long period of time, and researchers have used retrospective data from questionnaire and interview to gain insights into change over time. There has been little discussion within SLA as to the validity of this data, and it is seemingly accepted at face value. This paper examines both qualitative and quantitative retrospective accounts of changes in self-efficacy, by collecting quantitative questionnaire data over a one-year period, and then asking students to quantitatively recollect their feelings of self-efficacy over that time frame, followed by qualitative description. Results showed that students were able to accurately recollect quantitative data, although there was a noticeable degradation in accuracy with time. Interview data suggested that students were reluctant to admit lack of ability to recall events, and sometimes produced conflicting accounts of events.  This may in part be due to the dual role of teacher and researcher adopted in this study. The implications for researchers and also for teachers are considered.

  18. Retrospective dosimetry of Chernobyl liquidators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chumak, V.V.; Bakhanova, E.V.; Sholom, S.V.; Pasalskaya, L.F.; Bouville, A.; Krjuchkov, V.P.

    2000-01-01

    The numerous cohort of Chernobyl liquidators is a very attractive subject for epidemiological follow up due to high levels of exposure, age-gender distribution and availability of patients for medical examination. However, dosimetric information related to this population is incomplete, in many cases the quality of available dose records is doubtful and uncertainties of all dose values are not determined. Naive attempts to evaluate average doses on the basis of such factors as 'distance from the reactor' obviously fail due to large variation of tasks and workplace contamination. Therefore, prior to any sensible consideration of liquidators as a subject of epidemiological study, their doses should be evaluated (reevaluated) using the methods of retrospective dosimetry. Retrospective dosimetry in general got significant development over the last decade. However, most of the retrospective dosimetry techniques are time consuming, expensive and possess sensitivity threshold. Therefore, application of retrospective dosimetry for the needs of epidemiological follow up studies requires development of certain strategy. This strategy depends, of coarse, on the epidemiological design of the study, availability of resources and dosimetric information related to the time of clean up. One of the strategies of application of retrospective dosimetry may be demonstrated on the example of a cohort study with occasional nested case control consideration. In this case, the tools are needed for validation of existing dose records (of not always known quality), screening of the study cohort with express dosimetric method called to determine possible dose ranges, and 'state-of-the-art' assessment of individual doses for selected subjects (cases and controls). Verification of dose records involves analysis of the statistical regularities of dose distributions and detection of possible extraneous admixtures (presumably falsified dose records). This work is performed on impersonified data

  19. Forgetting to remember our experiences: People overestimate how much they will retrospect about personal events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tully, Stephanie; Meyvis, Tom

    2017-12-01

    People value experiences in part because of the memories they create. Yet, we find that people systematically overestimate how much they will retrospect about their experiences. This overestimation results from people focusing on their desire to retrospect about experiences, while failing to consider the experience's limited enduring accessibility in memory. Consistent with this view, we find that desirability is a stronger predictor of forecasted retrospection than it is of reported retrospection, resulting in greater overestimation when the desirability of retrospection is higher. Importantly, the desire to retrospect does not change over time. Instead, past experiences become less top-of-mind over time and, as a result, people simply forget to remember. In line with this account, our results show that obtaining physical reminders of an experience reduces the overestimation of retrospection by increasing how much people retrospect, bringing their realized retrospection more in line with their forecasts (and aspirations). We further observe that the extent to which reported retrospection falls short of forecasted retrospection reliably predicts declining satisfaction with an experience over time. Despite this potential negative consequence of retrospection falling short of expectations, we suggest that the initial overestimation itself may in fact be adaptive. This possibility and other potential implications of this work are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  20. The Use of Categorized Time-Trend Reporting of Radiation Oncology Incidents: A Proactive Analytical Approach to Improving Quality and Safety Over Time

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arnold, Anthony; Delaney, Geoff P.; Cassapi, Lynette; Barton, Michael

    2010-01-01

    Purpose: Radiotherapy is a common treatment for cancer patients. Although incidence of error is low, errors can be severe or affect significant numbers of patients. In addition, errors will often not manifest until long periods after treatment. This study describes the development of an incident reporting tool that allows categorical analysis and time trend reporting, covering first 3 years of use. Methods and Materials: A radiotherapy-specific incident analysis system was established. Staff members were encouraged to report actual errors and near-miss events detected at prescription, simulation, planning, or treatment phases of radiotherapy delivery. Trend reporting was reviewed monthly. Results: Reports were analyzed for the first 3 years of operation (May 2004-2007). A total of 688 reports was received during the study period. The actual error rate was 0.2% per treatment episode. During the study period, the actual error rates reduced significantly from 1% per year to 0.3% per year (p < 0.001), as did the total event report rates (p < 0.0001). There were 3.5 times as many near misses reported compared with actual errors. Conclusions: This system has allowed real-time analysis of events within a radiation oncology department to a reduced error rate through focus on learning and prevention from the near-miss reports. Plans are underway to develop this reporting tool for Australia and New Zealand.

  1. Time trend of smoking scenes in Iranian movies during the past three decades (1982-2011): a historical analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heydari, Gholamreza; Ebn Ahmady, Arezoo; Lando, Harry A; Chamyani, Fahimeh; Masjedi, Mohammad Reza; Shadmehr, Mohammad B; Fadaizadeh, Lida; Chaibakhsh, Samira

    2016-09-01

    Evidence from the USA and elsewhere has linked smoking depictions in movies with youth smoking initiation. Prior research has not focused on depictions in films produced in the Middle East, however. We reviewed the 10 most commercially successful Iranian films released each year over three decades (1982-2011) to determine trends in depictions of tobacco use over time. Each movie was reviewed in its entirety, and depictions of smoking were recorded and classified as direct (characters holding or using tobacco products) and indirect (tobacco products appearing in the frame, but not being used). Time trends in average duration of direct, indirect and total smoking depictions were analysed using linear regression and Cohen's κ coefficient. The mean duration of tobacco depictions in the most commercially successful Iranian films fluctuated yearly over the 3 decades, but with an overall significant upward trend (pfilm industry to minimise this important source of influence on tobacco initiation in young people. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

  2. Comparison between retrospective gating and ECG triggering in magnetic resonance velocity mapping

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Søndergaard, L; Ståhlberg, F; Thomsen, C

    1993-01-01

    ECG-triggered cinematographic studies of the cardiovascular system are hampered by several technical restrictions such as the inability to image end-diastole, ghosting, varying signal intensity, and phase contributions from eddy currents. Retrospective gating may solve these problems, but involves...... of flow pulses. However, by reducing the time window retrospectively gated flow measurements were in good agreement with those that are ECG triggered. When fulfilling the demand of a narrow time window for interpolation, retrospective gating offers several advantages in MR velocity mapping....

  3. Maternal inactivity: 45-year trends in mothers' use of time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Archer, Edward; Lavie, Carl J; McDonald, Samantha M; Thomas, Diana M; Hébert, James R; Taverno Ross, Sharon E; McIver, Kerry L; Malina, Robert M; Blair, Steven N

    2013-12-01

    To examine 45-year trends in time use and physical activity energy expenditure (PAEE) in a nationally representative sample of US mothers. We quantified time allocation to physical activity (PA), sedentary behaviors (SED), and PAEE from 1965 to 2010 in mothers with older children (MOC) (>5 to ≤18 years) and mothers with younger children (MYC) (≤5 years). Physical activity was the sum of time allocated to housework, child care, laundry, food preparation, postmeal cleanup, and exercise. Sedentary behavior was the sum of time spent in a vehicle and using screen-based media. Physical activity energy expenditure was calculated using body weights from national surveys and metabolic equivalents. From 1965 to 2010, the time allocated to PA decreased by 11.1 h/wk (from 32.0 to 20.9 h/wk) in MOC and by 13.9 h/wk (from 43.6 to 29.7 h/wk) in MYC. The time spent in SED increased by 7.0 h/wk in MOC (from 17.7 to 24.7 h/wk) and increased by 5.7 h/wk in MYC (from 17.0 to 22.7 h/wk). Physical activity energy expenditure decreased by 1237.6 kcal/wk (176.8 kcal/d) in MOC (from 5835.3 to 4597.7 kcal/wk), and in MYC, PAEE decreased by 1572.5 kcal/wk (224.6 kcal/d), from 7690.5 to 6118.0 kcal/wk. There was a significant reallocation of time by mothers from PA (eg, housework) to SED (eg, watching television) between 1965 and 2010. Given the essential role of PA for health and the potential for the intergenerational transmission of obesity and obesogenic behaviors, these results suggest that maternal inactivity may be an important target for the primary prevention of chronic noncommunicable diseases and obesity. Copyright © 2013 Mayo Foundation for Medical Education and Research. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Trends in suicidal behaviour in Dutch general practice 1983–2013: a retrospective observational study.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beurs, D.P. de; Hooiveld, M.; Kerkhof, A.J.F.M.; Korevaar, J.C.; Donker, G.A.

    2016-01-01

    Objectives To analyse trends in suicidal behaviour as reported by the Dutch sentinel general practices from 1983 to 2013. Second, to examine the relationship between suicidal behaviour and several patient characteristics. Finally, to compare the relationship between suicidal

  5. Ozone time scale decomposition and trend assessment from surface observations in National Parks of the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mao, H.; McGlynn, D. F.; Wu, Z.; Sive, B. C.

    2017-12-01

    A time scale decomposition technique, the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD), has been employed to decompose the time scales in long-term ozone measurement data at 24 US National Park Service sites. Time scales of interest include the annual cycle, variability by large scale climate oscillations, and the long-term trend. The implementation of policy regulations was found to have had a greater effect on sites nearest to urban regions. Ozone daily mean values increased until around the late 1990s followed by decreasing trends during the ensuing decades for sites in the East, southern California, and northwestern Washington. Sites in the Midwest did not experience a reversal of trends from positive to negative until the mid- to late 2000s. The magnitude of the annual amplitude decreased for nine sites and increased for three sites. Stronger decreases in the annual amplitude occurred in the East, with more sites in the East experiencing decreases in annual amplitude than in the West. The date of annual ozone peaks and minimums has changed for 12 sites in total, but those with a shift in peak date did not necessarily have a shift in the trough date. There appeared to be a link between peak dates occurring earlier and a decrease in the annual amplitude. This is likely related to a decrease in ozone titration due to NOx emission reductions. Furthermore, it was found that the shift in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) regime from positive to negative in 1998-1999 resulting in an increase in occurrences of La Niña-like conditions had the effect of directing more polluted air masses from East Asia to higher latitudes over North America. This change in PDO regime was likely one main factor causing the increase in ozone concentrations on all time scales at an Alaskan site DENA-HQ.

  6. Antimicrobial resistance trends among Escherichia coli isolates obtained from dairy cattle in the northeastern United States, 2004-2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cummings, Kevin J; Aprea, Victor A; Altier, Craig

    2014-01-01

    Monitoring antimicrobial resistance trends among bacteria isolated from food animals and people is necessary to inform risk analyses and guide public policy regarding antimicrobial use. Our objectives were to describe the antimicrobial resistance status of Escherichia coli isolates from dairy cattle in the northeastern United States and to identify trends in resistance to selected antimicrobial agents over time. We collected data retrospectively for all bovine E. coli isolates that were obtained from samples submitted to Cornell University's Animal Health Diagnostic Center between January 1, 2004 and December 31, 2011. We investigated temporal trends in the prevalence of resistant E. coli for each antimicrobial agent using the Cochran-Armitage trend test. Antimicrobial susceptibility testing was performed on 3373 bovine E. coli isolates from clinical samples submitted during the study period. Overall resistance to each antimicrobial agent ranged from 2.7% (enrofloxacin) to 91.3% (oxytetracycline). There was evidence of a significantly decreasing trend in prevalence of resistance to several agents: chlortetracycline, florfenicol, neomycin, oxytetracycline, spectinomycin, and trimethoprim/sulfamethoxazole. However, a significantly increasing trend in prevalence of resistance to enrofloxacin was also evident. These results do not support the idea that current antimicrobial use practices on dairy operations are driving a general increase in the emergence and dissemination of drug-resistant E. coli in the region served by the laboratory. However, resistance to some drugs remained consistently high during the study period, and increasing resistance to enrofloxacin is a key area of concern.

  7. Analysis of the development trend of China’s business administration based on time series

    OpenAIRE

    Jiang Rui

    2016-01-01

    On the general direction of the economic system, China is in a crucial period of the establishment of the modern enterprise system and reform of the macroeconomic system, and a lot of high-quality business administration talents are required to make China’s economy be stably developed. This paper carries out time series analysis of the development situation of China’s business administration major: on the whole, the society currently presents an upward trend on the demand for the business adm...

  8. Uncovering the problem-solving process: cued retrospective reporting versus concurrent and retrospective reporting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Gog, Tamara; Paas, Fred; van Merriënboer, Jeroen J G; Witte, Puk

    2005-12-01

    This study investigated the amounts of problem-solving process information ("action," "why," "how," and "metacognitive") elicited by means of concurrent, retrospective, and cued retrospective reporting. In a within-participants design, 26 participants completed electrical circuit troubleshooting tasks under different reporting conditions. The method of cued retrospective reporting used the original computer-based task and a superimposed record of the participant's eye fixations and mouse-keyboard operations as a cue for retrospection. Cued retrospective reporting (with the exception of why information) and concurrent reporting (with the exception of metacognitive information) resulted in a higher number of codes on the different types of information than did retrospective reporting.

  9. Time is on whose side? Time trends in the association between maternal social disadvantage and offspring fetal growth. A study of 1,409,339 births in Denmark 1981-2004

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mortensen, Laust H; Diderichsen, Finn; Davey-Smith, George

    2009-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: Fetal growth is highly socially patterned and is related to health across the life course, but how the social patterns of fetal growth change over time remains understudied. We examined the time trends in maternal social disadvantage in relation to fetal growth in the context of a univ......OBJECTIVE: Fetal growth is highly socially patterned and is related to health across the life course, but how the social patterns of fetal growth change over time remains understudied. We examined the time trends in maternal social disadvantage in relation to fetal growth in the context...... of a universal welfare state under changing macroeconomic conditions over a 24-year period. Design and settings: All births in Denmark 1981-2004. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: The association between maternal social disadvantage in relation to birth weight for gestational age z-scores over time were analysed using...... linear regression. RESULTS: All measures of social disadvantage were associated with decreased fetal growth (p

  10. Temporal trend of carpal tunnel release surgery: a population-based time series analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naif Fnais

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Carpal tunnel release (CTR is among the most common hand surgeries, although little is known about its pattern. In this study, we aimed to investigate temporal trends, age and gender variation and current practice patterns in CTR surgeries. METHODS: We conducted a population-based time series analysis among over 13 million residents of Ontario, who underwent operative management for carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS from April 1, 1992 to March 31, 2010 using administrative claims data. RESULTS: The primary analysis revealed a fairly stable procedure rate of approximately 10 patients per 10,000 population per year receiving CTRs without any significant, consistent temporal trend (p = 0.94. Secondary analyses revealed different trends in procedure rates according to age. The annual procedure rate among those age >75 years increased from 22 per 10,000 population at the beginning of the study period to over 26 patients per 10,000 population (p<0.01 by the end of the study period. CTR surgical procedures were approximately two-fold more common among females relative to males (64.9% vs. 35.1 respectively; p<0.01. Lastly, CTR procedures are increasingly being conducted in the outpatient setting while procedures in the inpatient setting have been declining steadily - the proportion of procedures performed in the outpatient setting increased from 13% to over 30% by 2010 (p<0.01. CONCLUSION: Overall, CTR surgical-procedures are conducted at a rate of approximately 10 patients per 10,000 population annually with significant variation with respect to age and gender. CTR surgical procedures in ambulatory-care facilities may soon outpace procedure rates in the in-hospital setting.

  11. Local Vegetation Trends in the Sahel of Mali and Senegal Using Long Time Series FAPAR Satellite Products and Field Measurement (1982–2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin Brandt

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Local vegetation trends in the Sahel of Mali and Senegal from Geoland Version 1 (GEOV1 (5 km and the third generation Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS3g (8 km Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FAPAR time series are studied over 29 years. For validation and interpretation of observed greenness trends, two methods are applied: (1 a qualitative approach using in-depth knowledge of the study areas and (2 a quantitative approach by time series of biomass observations and rainfall data. Significant greening trends from 1982 to 2010 are consistently observed in both GEOV1 and GIMMS3g FAPAR datasets. Annual rainfall increased significantly during the observed time period, explaining large parts of FAPAR variations at a regional scale. Locally, GEOV1 data reveals a heterogeneous pattern of vegetation change, which is confirmed by long-term ground data and site visits. The spatial variability in the observed vegetation trends in the Sahel area are mainly caused by varying tree- and land-cover, which are controlled by human impact, soil and drought resilience. A large proportion of the positive trends are caused by the increment in leaf biomass of woody species that has almost doubled since the 1980s due to a tree cover regeneration after a dry-period. This confirms the re-greening of the Sahel, however, degradation is also present and sometimes obscured by greening. GEOV1 as compared to GIMMS3g made it possible to better characterize the spatial pattern of trends and identify the degraded areas in the study region.

  12. Time trends in prostate cancer surgery: data from an Internet-based multicentre database.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schostak, Martin; Baumunk, Daniel; Jagota, Anita; Klopf, Christian; Winter, Alexander; Schäfers, Sebastian; Kössler, Robert; Brennecke, Volker; Fischer, Tom; Hagel, Susanne; Höchel, Steffen; Jäkel, Dierk; Lehsnau, Mike; Krege, Susanne; Rüffert, Bernd; Pretzer, Jana; Becht, Eduard; Zegenhagen, Thomas; Miller, Kurt; Weikert, Steffen

    2012-02-01

    To report our experience with an Internet-based multicentre database that enables tumour documentation, as well as the collection of quality-related parameters and follow-up data, in surgically treated patients with prostate cancer. The system was used to assess the quality of prostate cancer surgery and to analyze possible time-dependent trends in the quality of care. An Internet-based database system enabled a standardized collection of treatment data and clinical findings from the participating urological centres for the years 2005-2009. An analysis was performed aiming to evaluate relevant patient characteristics (age, pathological tumour stage, preoperative International Index of Erectile Function-5 score), intra-operative parameters (operating time, percentage of nerve-sparing operations, complication rate, transfusion rate, number of resected lymph nodes) and postoperative parameters (hospitalization time, re-operation rate, catheter indwelling time). Mean values were calculated and compared for each annual cohort from 2005 to 2008. The overall survival rate was also calculated for a subgroup of the Berlin patients. A total of 914, 1120, 1434 and 1750 patients submitted to radical prostatectomy in 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2008 were documented in the database. The mean age at the time of surgery remained constant (66 years) during the study period. More than half the patients already had erectile dysfunction before surgery (median International Index of Erectile Function-5 score of 19-20). During the observation period, there was a decrease in the percentage of pT2 tumours (1% in 2005; 64% in 2008) and a slight increase in the percentage of patients with lymph node metastases (8% in 2005; 10% in 2008). No time trend was found for the operating time (142-155 min) or the percentage of nerve-sparing operations (72-78% in patients without erectile dysfunction). A decreasing frequency was observed for the parameters: blood transfusions (1.9% in 2005; 0.5% in 2008

  13. Changing trends in sexually transmitted diseases in North Eastern India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaiswal A

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available A retrospective data analysis was carried out to find the trends in frequency and distribution of different STDs in North Eastern (NE India during 1995 - 1999. The commonest STD was chancroid (25.7% followed by condylomata acuminata (CA, nongonococcal urethritis (NGU, lymphogranuloma venereum (LGV, syphilis, gonorrhoea (GONO, herpes genitalis (HG, mixed infection (MI and balanoposthitis (BP. Interestingly no case of donovanosis (Dono was seen. HIV infection accounted for 9.62% of the total STD patients. A comparison of the present data with that reported a decade back (1986 - 1990 revealed a sharp decline in the incidence of syphilis, chancroid, GONO, whereas a conspicuous upward trend in CA and NGU. Factors responsible for these variations are analysed briefly.

  14. The Wide and Complex Field of NAFLD Biomarker Research: Trends

    OpenAIRE

    Wichro, Erika; Macheiner, Tanja; Schmid, Jasmin; Kavsek, Barbara; Sargsyan, Karine

    2014-01-01

    Background. Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease is now acknowledged as a complex public health issue linked to sedentary lifestyle, obesity, and related disorders like type 2 diabetes and metabolic syndrome. Aims. We aimed to retrieve its trends out of the huge amount of published data. Therefore, we conducted an extensive literature search to identify possible biomarker and/or biomarker combinations by retrospectively assessing and evaluating common and novel biomarkers to predict progression a...

  15. Decreasing pH trend estimated from 25-yr time series of carbonate parameters in the western North Pacific

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Midorikawa, Takashi; Ishii, Masao; Sasano, Daisuke; Kosugi, Naohiro (Geochemical Research Dept., Meteorological Research Institute Tsukuba (Japan)), e-mail: midorika@mri-jma.go.jp; Saito, Shu (Geochemical Research Dept., Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba (Japan); Institute of Observational Research for Global Change (IORGC), Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Yokosuka (Japan)); Motoi, Tatsuo (Oceanographic Research Dept., Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba (Japan)); Kamiya, Hitomi; Nakadate, Akira; Nemoto, Kazuhiro (Global Environment and Marine Dept., Japan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo (Japan)); Inoue, Hisayuki Y. (Graduate School of Environmental Earth Science, Hokkaido Univ., Sapporo (Japan))

    2010-11-15

    We estimated long-term trends of ocean acidification in surface waters in latitudinal zones from 3 deg N to 33 deg N along the repeat hydrographic line at 137 deg E in the western North Pacific Ocean. Estimates were based on the observational records of oceanic CO{sub 2} partial pressure and related surface properties over the last two decades. The computed pH time series both for 25 yr in winter (late January to early February) and for 21 yr in summer (June-July) exhibited significant decreasing trends in the extensive subtropical to equatorial zones, with interannual variations that were larger in summer. The calculated rates of pH decrease ranged from 0.0015 to 0.0021 yr-1 (average, 0.0018 +- 0.0002 yr-1) in winter and from 0.0008 to 0.0019 yr-1 (average, 0.0013 +- 0.0005 yr-1 ) in summer. The thermodynamic effects of rising sea surface temperature (SST) accounted for up to 44% (average, 15%) of the trend of pH decrease in the subtropical region in winter, whereas a trend of decreasing SST slowed the pH decrease in the northern subtropical region (around 25 deg N) in summer. We used the results from recent trends to evaluate future possible thermodynamic changes in the upper ocean carbonate system

  16. Brominated flame retardant trends in aquatic birds from the Salish Sea region of the west coast of North America, including a mini-review of recent trends in marine and estuarine birds

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miller, Aroha [Department of Applied Biology, University of British Columbia, 2357 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC (Canada); Elliott, John E., E-mail: John.Elliott@ec.gc.ca [Science and Technology, Environment Canada, Delta, BC V4K 3N2 (Canada); Elliott, Kyle H.; Guigueno, Mélanie F. [Department of Biology, University of Western Ontario, 1151 Richmond Street, London, ON N6A 3K7 (Canada); Wilson, Laurie K. [Canadian Wildlife Service, Pacific Wildlife Research Centre, Environment Canada, Delta, BC V4K 3N2 (Canada); Lee, Sandi [Science and Technology, Environment Canada, Delta, BC V4K 3N2 (Canada); Idrissi, Abde [Environment Canada, National Wildlife Research Centre, Ottawa, ON K1A 0H3 (Canada)

    2015-01-01

    Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) increased in many matrices during the 1990s and early 2000s. Since voluntary restrictions and regulations on PBDEs were implemented in North America circa early 2000s, decreases in PBDEs have occurred in many of these same matrices. To examine temporal trends in the North Pacific, we retrospectively analysed PBDEs and eight non-PBDE flame retardants (FR) in eggs of two aquatic bird species, great blue herons, Ardea herodias, and double-crested cormorants, Phalacrocorax auritus, collected along the British Columbia coast, Canada from 1979 to 2012. Increasing PBDE concentrations were observed in both species followed by significant decreases post-2000 for all dominant congeners and ΣPBDE. Non-PBDE FRs were generally undetected in cormorant eggs, or detected at very low levels in heron eggs, except for hexabromocyclododecane (HBCDD). HBCDD, currently unregulated in North America, was not detected in early sampling years; however low concentrations were observed in both species in recent sampling years (2003–2012). Dietary tracers (δ{sup 13}C and δ{sup 15}N) did not change significantly over time, indicating that temporal changes in PBDEs are likely caused by implemented regulations. A comparison with recently published temporal trends of ΣPBDE in marine birds from North America and Europe is given. - Highlights: • Seabird eggs have been used to monitor POPs on the west coast of Canada since 1979. • Samples of these eggs were analysed retrospectively for PBDEs and HBCDD. • Regulations exist in North America to control PBDEs, but not HBCDD. • PBDEs decreased significantly since regulations were applied. • HBCDD was not detected pre-2003, but is now found in low concentrations.

  17. Characteristic Trend Analysis of Cancer Patients Hospitalized in Shanxi Tumor Hospital for the First Time during 2001 and 2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Wen-Li; Wang, Yan; Han, Cun-Zhi

    2015-01-01

    To observe and analyze the characteristic trend of cancer patients hospitalized for the first time in Shanxi Tumor Hospital from 2001 to 2010, clinical data including case number, age, gender, and frequency of different tumor occurrences were collected and statistically analyzed. (i) From 2001 to 2010, the number of cancer patients hospitalized for the first time increased by 1.3-fold; (ii) The patient overall average age also increased from 51.8 to 54.4, for males from 55.5 to 58.7 and females from 48.4 to 51.1, respectively. (iii) Male patients accounted for 43-48% and females accounted for 52-57% of the total. The percentage of female patients was higher than that of male patients in every year and showed an upward trend over the years, while that of the males showed a downward trend (χ2 =7.031, p=0.008); (iv) Among the top 6 most common cancers, lung, cervical, esophageal, colorectal and breast cancers tended to increase over the years (ppatients hospitalized for the first time during the past 10 years increased year by year, and was higher for female than male; (ii) the average age of patients increased year after year and was greater for male than female; (iii) the number of patients with lung cancer, cervical cancer, esophageal cancer, colorectal cancer and breast cancer increased over years.

  18. A retrospective longitudinal study of animal and human rabies in Botswana 1989-2006

    OpenAIRE

    K.T. Moagabo; K.B. Monyame; E.K. Baipoledi; M. Letshwenyo; N. Mapitse; J.M.K. Hyera

    2009-01-01

    A longitudinal study of animal and human rabies covering 18 years from 1989 to 2006 was retrospectively conducted in order to highlight the epidemiological features and trends of the disease in Botswana. Over the 18-year period, a total of 4 306 brain specimens collected from various species of animals including human beings with clinical signs consistent with rabies were submitted to the National Veterinary Laboratory in Gaborone for confirmatory diagnosis. Of the samples submitted, 2 ...

  19. Time trends, improvements and national auditing of rectal cancer management over an 18-year period.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kodeda, K; Johansson, R; Zar, N; Birgisson, H; Dahlberg, M; Skullman, S; Lindmark, G; Glimelius, B; Påhlman, L; Martling, A

    2015-09-01

    The main aims were to explore time trends in the management and outcome of patients with rectal cancer in a national cohort and to evaluate the possible impact of national auditing on overall outcomes. A secondary aim was to provide population-based data for appraisal of external validity in selected patient series. Data from the Swedish ColoRectal Cancer Registry with virtually complete national coverage were utilized in this cohort study on 29 925 patients with rectal cancer diagnosed between 1995 and 2012. Of eligible patients, nine were excluded. During the study period, overall, relative and disease-free survival increased. Postoperative mortality after 30 and 90 days decreased to 1.7% and 2.9%. The 5-year local recurrence rate dropped to 5.0%. Resection margins improved, as did peri-operative blood loss despite more multivisceral resections being performed. Fewer patients underwent palliative resection and the proportion of non-operated patients increased. The proportions of temporary and permanent stoma formation increased. Preoperative radiotherapy and chemoradiotherapy became more common as did multidisciplinary team conferences. Variability in rectal cancer management between healthcare regions diminished over time when new aspects of patient care were audited. There have been substantial changes over time in the management of patients with rectal cancer, reflected in improved outcome. Much indirect evidence indicates that auditing matters, but without a control group it is not possible to draw firm conclusions regarding the possible impact of a quality control registry on faster shifts in time trends, decreased variability and improvements. Registry data were made available for reference. Colorectal Disease © 2015 The Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland.

  20. Annual trends in catchability and fish stock assessments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Marchal, P.; Ulrich, Clara; Korsbrekke, K.

    2003-01-01

    . The performances of the new and traditional XSA assessments are compared using criteria based on the precision of catchability estimates, stationarity of Log-catchability residuals and retrospective patterns relative to fishing mortality, spawning stock biomass and recruitment estimates. The performances....... A range of catchability trends, including values derived from the "Hybrid" method, is then implemented to standardise the fishing effort of some tuning fleets used in the stock assessments performed by XSA (eXtended Survivors Analysis). Stocks being assessed are the North Sea cod, saithe, plaice and sole...

  1. Timing of renal replacement therapy after cardiac surgery: a retrospective multicenter Spanish cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    García-Fernández, Nuria; Pérez-Valdivieso, José Ramón; Bes-Rastrollo, Maira; Vives, Marc; Lavilla, Javier; Herreros, Jesús; Monedero, Pablo

    2011-01-01

    The optimal time to initiate renal replacement therapy (RRT) in cardiac surgery-associated acute kidney injury (CSA-AKI) is unknown. Evidence suggests that the early use of RRT in critically ill patients is associated with improved outcomes. We studied the effects of time to initiation of RRT on outcome in patients with CSA-AKI. This was a retrospective observational multicenter study (24 Spanish hospitals). We analyzed data on 203 patients who required RRT after cardiac surgery in 2007. The cohort was divided into 2 groups based on the time at which RRT was initiated: in the early RRT group, therapy was initiated within the first 3 days after cardiac surgery; in the late group, RRT was begun after the 3rd day. Multivariate nonconditional logistic and linear regression models were used to adjust for potential confounders. In-hospital mortality was significantly higher in the late RRT group compared with early RRT patients (80.4 vs. 53.2%; p < 0.001; adjusted odds ratio of 4.1, 95% CI: 1.6-10.0). Also, patients in the late RRT group had longer adjusted hospital stays by 11.6 days (95% CI: 1.4-21.9) and higher adjusted percentage increases in creatinine at discharge compared with baseline by 67.7% (95% CI: 28.5-106.4). Patients who undergo early initiation of RRT after CSA-AKI have improved survival rates and renal function at discharge and decreased lengths of hospital stay. Copyright © 2011 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  2. Effect of socioeconomic deprivation on waiting time for cardiac surgery: retrospective cohort study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pell, Jill P; Pell, Alastair C H; Norrie, John; Ford, Ian; Cobbe, Stuart M

    2000-01-01

    Objective To determine whether the priority given to patients referred for cardiac surgery is associated with socioeconomic status. Design Retrospective study with multivariate logistic regression analysis of the association between deprivation and classification of urgency with allowance for age, sex, and type of operation. Multivariate linear regression analysis was used to determine association between deprivation and waiting time within each category of urgency, with allowance for age, sex, and type of operation. Setting NHS waiting lists in Scotland. Participants 26 642 patients waiting for cardiac surgery, 1 January 1986 to 31 December 1997. Main outcome measures Deprivation as measured by Carstairs deprivation category. Time spent on NHS waiting list. Results Patients who were most deprived tended to be younger and were more likely to be female. Patients in deprivation categories 6 and 7 (most deprived) waited about three weeks longer for surgery than those in category 1 (mean difference 24 days, 95% confidence interval 15 to 32). Deprived patients had an odds ratio of 0.5 (0.46 to 0.61) for having their operations classified as urgent compared with the least deprived, after allowance for age, sex, and type of operation. When urgent and routine cases were considered separately, there was no significant difference in waiting times between the most and least deprived categories. Conclusions Socioeconomically deprived patients are thought to be more likely to develop coronary heart disease but are less likely to be investigated and offered surgery once it has developed. Such patients may be further disadvantaged by having to wait longer for surgery because of being given lower priority. PMID:10617517

  3. Decreasing trends in hospitalizations during anti-TNF therapy are associated with time to anti-TNF therapy: Results from two referral centres.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mandel, Michael D; Balint, Anita; Golovics, Petra A; Vegh, Zsuzsanna; Mohas, Anna; Szilagyi, Blanka; Szabo, Agnes; Kurti, Zsuzsanna; Kiss, Lajos S; Lovasz, Barbara D; Gecse, Krisztina B; Farkas, Klaudia; Molnar, Tamas; Lakatos, Peter L

    2014-11-01

    Hospitalization is an important outcome measure and a major driver of costs in patients with inflammatory bowel disease. We analysed medical and surgical hospitalization rates and predictors of hospitalization before and during anti-TNF therapy. Data from 194 consecutive patients were analysed retrospectively (males, 45.4%, median age at diagnosis, 24.0 years, infliximab/adalimumab: 144/50) in whom anti-TNF therapy was started after January 1, 2008. Total follow-up was 1874 patient-years and 474 patient-years with anti-TNF exposure. Hospitalization rates hospitalization decreased only in Crohn's disease (odds ratio: 0.59, 95% confidence interval: 0.51-0.70, median 2-years' anti-TNF exposure) with a same trend for surgical interventions (p=0.07), but not in ulcerative colitis. Need for hospitalization decreased in Crohn's disease with early (within 3-years from diagnosis, p=0.016 by McNemar test), but not late anti-TNF exposure. At logistic regression analysis complicated disease behaviour (p=0.03), concomitant azathioprine (p=0.02) use, but not anti-TNF type, gender, perianal disease or previous surgeries were associated with the risk of hospitalization during anti-TNF therapy. Hospitalization rate decreased significantly in patients with Crohn's disease but not ulcerative colitis after the introduction of anti-TNF therapy and was associated with time to therapy. Complicated disease phenotype and concomitant azathioprine use were additional factors defining the risk of hospitalization. Copyright © 2014 Editrice Gastroenterologica Italiana S.r.l. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Time Trends in Breast Cancer Among Indian Women Population: An Analysis of Population Based Cancer Registry Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaturvedi, Meesha; Vaitheeswaran, K; Satishkumar, K; Das, Priyanka; Stephen, S; Nandakumar, A

    2015-12-01

    The trends observed in cancer breast among Indian women are an indication of effect of changing lifestyle in population. To draw an appropriate inference regarding the trends of a particular type of cancer in a country, it is imperative to glance at the reliable data collected by Population Based Cancer Registries over a period of time. To give an insight of changing trends of breast cancer which have taken place over a period of time among women in Cancer Registries of India. Breast Cancer trends for invasive breast cancer in women in Indian Registries have varied during the selected period. Occurrence of breast cancers has also shown geographical variation in India. This data was collected by means of a 'Standard Core Proforma' designed by NCRP conforming to the data fields as suggested by International norms. The Proforma was filled by trained Registry workers based on interview/ hospital medical records/ supplementing data by inputs from treating surgeons/radiation oncologists/involved physicians/pathologists. The contents of the Proforma are entered into specifically created software and transmitted electronically to the coordinating center at Bangalore. The registries contributing to more number of years of data are called as older registries, while other recently established registries are called newer registries. While there has been an increase recorded in breast cancer in most of the registries, some of them have recorded an insignificant increase. Comparison of Age Adjusted Rates (AARs) among Indian Registries has been carried out after which trends observed in populations covered by Indian Registries are depicted. A variation in broad age groups of females and the proneness of females developing breast cancer over the period 1982 to 2010 has been shown. Comparisons of Indian registries with International counterparts have also been carried out. There are marked changes in incidence rates of cancer breast which have occurred in respective registries in a

  5. Sex-specific incidence of EGFR mutation and its association with age and obesity in lung adenocarcinomas: a retrospective analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Hye-Ryoun; Kim, Seo Yun; Kim, Cheol Hyeon; Yang, Sung Hyun; Lee, Jae Cheol; Choi, Chang-Min; Na, Im Il

    2017-11-01

    Age and obesity are well-known risk factors for various cancers, but the potential roles of age and obesity in lung cancer, especially in those with activating EGFR mutations, have not been thoroughly evaluated. The aim of this retrospective study is to evaluate the associations between the sex-specific incidence of EGFR mutations and age and obesity. We conducted a retrospective study based on the data from 1378 lung adenocarcinoma cases. The degree of obesity was categorized by body mass index (BMI). The associations between EGFR mutational status and clinical factors, including stage, smoking history, age group (≤45 years, 46-55, 56-65 and >65), and BMI group (obesity (adjusted OR for BMI group = 1.23, p-trend = 0.04). In contrast, in women, the incidence of EGFR mutation was positively associated with age (adjusted OR for age group = 1.19, p-trend = 0.02). However, the incidence of EGFR mutation was not statistically associated with obesity (adjusted OR for BMI group = 1.03, p-trend = 0.76). Our data suggests that age and obesity may contribute to the sex-specific incidence of EGFR mutation in lung adenocarcinoma in different manners.

  6. Time trends in leisure time physical activity, smoking, alcohol consumption and body mass index in Danish adults with and without COPD

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Henrik; Johnsen, Nina Føns; Molsted, Stig

    2016-01-01

    Background: Promotion of a healthy lifestyle and non-pharmacological interventions in the treatment of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) has received great attention in recent decades. The aim of this study was to investigate trends in leisure time physical activity (PA), smoking......, alcohol consumption and body mass index (BMI) from 2000 to 2010 in Danish individuals with and without COPD. Methods: Analyses were based on data provided by The Danish Health and Morbidity's three cross-sectional surveys from 2000, 2005 and 2010. Data compromised level of leisure time PA, smoking......, alcohol consumption, BMI and sociodemographic characteristics. Participants aged 25 years or older with and without COPD were included in the analyses. Results: In multiple logistic regression analyses, odds ratio (OR) of being physically active in the leisure time in 2010 compared to 2000 was 1.70 (95...

  7. Real-time on-line space research laboratory environment monitoring with off-line trend and prediction analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jules, Kenol; Lin, Paul P.

    2007-06-01

    With the International Space Station currently operational, a significant amount of acceleration data is being down-linked, processed and analyzed daily on the ground on a continuous basis for the space station reduced gravity environment characterization, the vehicle design requirements verification and science data collection. To help understand the impact of the unique spacecraft environment on the science data, an artificial intelligence monitoring system was developed, which detects in near real time any change in the reduced gravity environment susceptible to affect the on-going experiments. Using a dynamic graphical display, the monitoring system allows science teams, at any time and any location, to see the active vibration disturbances, such as pumps, fans, compressor, crew exercise, re-boost and extra-vehicular activities that might impact the reduced gravity environment the experiments are exposed to. The monitoring system can detect both known and unknown vibratory disturbance activities. It can also perform trend analysis and prediction by analyzing past data over many increments (an increment usually lasts 6 months) collected onboard the station for selected disturbances. This feature can be used to monitor the health of onboard mechanical systems to detect and prevent potential systems failures. The monitoring system has two operating modes: online and offline. Both near real-time on-line vibratory disturbance detection and off-line detection and trend analysis are discussed in this paper.

  8. A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF FORECASTING MODELS FOR TREND AND SEASONAL TIME SERIES DOES COMPLEX MODEL ALWAYS YIELD BETTER FORECAST THAN SIMPLE MODELS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suhartono Suhartono

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Many business and economic time series are non-stationary time series that contain trend and seasonal variations. Seasonality is a periodic and recurrent pattern caused by factors such as weather, holidays, or repeating promotions. A stochastic trend is often accompanied with the seasonal variations and can have a significant impact on various forecasting methods. In this paper, we will investigate and compare some forecasting methods for modeling time series with both trend and seasonal patterns. These methods are Winter's, Decomposition, Time Series Regression, ARIMA and Neural Networks models. In this empirical research, we study on the effectiveness of the forecasting performance, particularly to answer whether a complex method always give a better forecast than a simpler method. We use a real data, that is airline passenger data. The result shows that the more complex model does not always yield a better result than a simpler one. Additionally, we also find the possibility to do further research especially the use of hybrid model by combining some forecasting method to get better forecast, for example combination between decomposition (as data preprocessing and neural network model.

  9. Time-trends and causes of infant, neonatal and postneonatal mortality in Mexico, 1980-1990

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SUSAN VANDALE

    1997-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective. This article analyzes the time-trends and causes of infant, neonatal, and postneonatal mortality in Mexico during the 1980’s. Material and methods. Data on infant deaths came from yearly tabulations (1980 to 1990 published by the Mexican government. Time-trends of mortality rates were determined by simple linear regression models. The parallelism test was performed for evaluating similarities in trends in neonatal and postneonatal mortality rates by causes. Results. During the 1980’s, infant mortality rates in Mexico declined from 40.4 to 31.1/1 000 (ß= -0.791. Postneonatal mortality rates showed a strong decrease (ß= -0.892, while neonatal mortality rates were almost stationary (ß= 0.089. Significant rate decreases were observed for Intestinal infections, Pneumonia and influenza and all other causes while Certain perinatal problems, Congenital defects and Nutritional deficiencies increased. No changes were observed in Acute respiratory infections. The neonatal proportional mortality showed an incremental trend accounting for 37.6% in 1980 and ascending to 48.8% in 1990 of the mortality in the first year of life. Conclusions.This analysis indicates that the reduction in infant mortality in Mexico during the 1980’s was due to declining postneonatal mortality while neonatal mortality rates remain almost unchanged.Objetivo. Analizar las tendencias seculares de las tasas de mortalidad infantil (TMI neonatal (TMN y posneonatal (TMP en México de 1980-1990. Material y métodos. La información estudiada fue proporcionada por el Instituto Nacional de Estadística, Geografía e Informática. Las tendencias de los indicadores fueron determinadas mediante modelos de regresión lineal y se efectuaron pruebas de paralelismo para evaluar la semejanza en pendientes de TMN y TMP por causas. Resultados. Las TMI se redujeron de 40.4 a 31.1/1 000, (ß= -0.791. Las TMP mostraron un decremento significativo (ß= -0.892, mientras que las TMN

  10. Back to "once a caesarean: always a caesarean"? A trend analysis in Switzerland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christmann-Schmid, Corina; Raio, Luigi; Scheibner, Katrin; Müller, Martin; Surbek, Daniel

    2016-11-01

    Caesarean sections (CS) have significantly increased worldwide and a previous CS is nowadays an important and increasingly reported indication to perform a repeat CS. There is a paucity of information in Switzerland on the incidence of repeat CS after previous CS and relationship between the rates of vaginal birth after CS (VBAC). The aim of this study was to analyse the actual trend in VBAC in Switzerland. We performed a retrospective cohort study to analyse the proportion of VBAC among all pregnant women with previous sections which give birth during two time periods (group 1:1998/1999 vs. group 2:2004/2005) in our tertiary care referral hospital and in the annual statistics of Swiss Women's Hospitals (ASF-Statistics). In addition, the proportion of induction of labour after a previous caesarean and its success was analysed. In both cohorts studied, we found a significant decrease of vaginal births (p Switzerland. There was no significant change in labour induction during the study period. While this trend might reflect an increasing demand for safety in pregnancy and childbirth, it concomitantly increases maternal risks of further pregnancies, and women need to be appropriately informed about long-term risks.

  11. Automatic trend estimation

    CERN Document Server

    Vamos¸, C˘alin

    2013-01-01

    Our book introduces a method to evaluate the accuracy of trend estimation algorithms under conditions similar to those encountered in real time series processing. This method is based on Monte Carlo experiments with artificial time series numerically generated by an original algorithm. The second part of the book contains several automatic algorithms for trend estimation and time series partitioning. The source codes of the computer programs implementing these original automatic algorithms are given in the appendix and will be freely available on the web. The book contains clear statement of the conditions and the approximations under which the algorithms work, as well as the proper interpretation of their results. We illustrate the functioning of the analyzed algorithms by processing time series from astrophysics, finance, biophysics, and paleoclimatology. The numerical experiment method extensively used in our book is already in common use in computational and statistical physics.

  12. De-trending of turbulence measurements

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Kurt Schaldemose; Larsen, Gunner Chr.

    2006-01-01

    contribution to the wind speed turbulence intensity for a number of representative locations. A linear de-trending process has been implemented during indexing of the time-series. The observed de-trended turbulence intensities are reduced 3 – 15 % compared to the raw turbulence intensity. This reduction...... depends primarily on site characteristics and local mean wind speed variations. Reduced turbulence intensity will result in lower design fatigue loads. This aspect of de-trending is discussed by use of a simple heuristic load model. Finally an empirical model for de-trending wind resource data...

  13. Evaluation of NASA's MERRA Precipitation Product in Reproducing the Observed Trend and Distribution of Extreme Precipitation Events in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ashouri, Hamed; Sorooshian, Soroosh; Hsu, Kuo-Lin; Bosilovich, Michael G.; Lee, Jaechoul; Wehner, Michael F.; Collow, Allison

    2016-01-01

    This study evaluates the performance of NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) precipitation product in reproducing the trend and distribution of extreme precipitation events. Utilizing the extreme value theory, time-invariant and time-variant extreme value distributions are developed to model the trends and changes in the patterns of extreme precipitation events over the contiguous United States during 1979-2010. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) U.S.Unified gridded observation data are used as the observational dataset. The CPC analysis shows that the eastern and western parts of the United States are experiencing positive and negative trends in annual maxima, respectively. The continental-scale patterns of change found in MERRA seem to reasonably mirror the observed patterns of change found in CPC. This is not previously expected, given the difficulty in constraining precipitation in reanalysis products. MERRA tends to overestimate the frequency at which the 99th percentile of precipitation is exceeded because this threshold tends to be lower in MERRA, making it easier to be exceeded. This feature is dominant during the summer months. MERRA tends to reproduce spatial patterns of the scale and location parameters of the generalized extreme value and generalized Pareto distributions. However, MERRA underestimates these parameters, particularly over the Gulf Coast states, leading to lower magnitudes in extreme precipitation events. Two issues in MERRA are identified: 1) MERRA shows a spurious negative trend in Nebraska and Kansas, which is most likely related to the changes in the satellite observing system over time that has apparently affected the water cycle in the central United States, and 2) the patterns of positive trend over the Gulf Coast states and along the East Coast seem to be correlated with the tropical cyclones in these regions. The analysis of the trends in the seasonal precipitation extremes indicates that

  14. Twenty four year time trends in fats and cholesterol intake by adolescents. Warsaw Adolescents Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charzewska Jadwiga

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study was to determine time trends (1982–2006 in total fat intake and changes in fatty acid structure intake in adolescents from Warsaw in view of increasing prevalence of obesity. Data come from four successive surveys randomly selected samples of adolescents (aged 11–15 years old, from Warsaw region. In total 9747 pupils have been examined, with response rate varying from 55% to 87% depending on year. Surveys were done always in the spring season of the year. Food intake was assessed by using 24 hours recall method of consumption by the pupils all products, including enriched, dishes and beverages as well as diet supplements, in the last 24 hours preceding the examination. The content of energy and nutrients was calculated by means of own computer softwares (DIET 2 and 4, taking into account successive revisions of the tables of food composition and nutritional values, as well as current Polish DRI. A significant decreasing trend was found in intake of total fat, of saturated fatty acids (SFA and cholesterol. The percentage of energy from total fat, also decreased both in boys (to 35,1% and girls (to 33,7%, what failed to reach the desired level below 30% of energy from fat which is recommended. Also significant decrease of SFA consumption was not satisfactory enough to approach the values <10% of energy recommended as was from 13% to 15%. Decreasing trends in fat intake was not in accordance with the trend in obesity prevalence in the adolescents as average BMI is going up. To stabilize the health-oriented changes especially in the diets of adolescents, further activity is desired from professionals working with prevention of adolescents obesity.

  15. Influence of time to diagnosis of severe influenza on antibiotic use, length of stay, isolation precautions, and mortality: a retrospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akers, Isabel E; Weber, Rainer; Sax, Hugo; Böni, Jürg; Trkola, Alexandra; Kuster, Stefan P

    2017-07-01

    Timely diagnosis of influenza infection in patients might help reduce antibiotic use during influenza seasons and, consequently, antibiotic selection pressure. In this retrospective cohort study, we aimed to evaluate whether time to influenza diagnosis in patients with severe influenza is associated with the duration of antibiotic therapy. We retrospectively included all hospitalized patients >16 years who tested positive for influenza A or B by polymerase chain reaction during influenza seasons 2013/2014 or 2014/2015 at the University Hospital Zurich. The primary aim was to assess the association between timing of laboratory-confirmed influenza diagnosis and duration of antibiotic therapy. Secondary outcomes were length of hospital stay, duration of isolation precautions, and mortality. Early diagnosis was defined as laboratory confirmation on the day of or the day after hospital admission or symptom onset. A total of 126 patients were included (median age 57 years). Timing of influenza diagnosis was not associated with the duration of antibiotic treatment, the duration of isolation precautions, or mortality. Early influenza was associated with reduced length of hospital stay (median 7 vs 9 days [P=.014]) in patients with community-acquired influenza. Although the duration of antibiotic therapy and mortality were found unaffected by early influenza diagnosis, our data indicate that it is linked with a reduction in the length of hospitalization in patients with community-acquired influenza. This highlights a need to also fully understand the effect of time to diagnosis of bacterial pathogens on antibiotic prescribing patterns in order to exploit the potential of early influenza diagnosis in patient care. © 2017 The Authors. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  16. Multiple long-term trends and trend reversals dominate environmental conditions in a man-made freshwater reservoir.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Znachor, Petr; Nedoma, Jiří; Hejzlar, Josef; Seďa, Jaromír; Kopáček, Jiří; Boukal, David; Mrkvička, Tomáš

    2018-05-15

    Man-made reservoirs are common across the world and provide a wide range of ecological services. Environmental conditions in riverine reservoirs are affected by the changing climate, catchment-wide processes and manipulations with the water level, and water abstraction from the reservoir. Long-term trends of environmental conditions in reservoirs thus reflect a wider range of drivers in comparison to lakes, which makes the understanding of reservoir dynamics more challenging. We analysed a 32-year time series of 36 environmental variables characterising weather, land use in the catchment, reservoir hydrochemistry, hydrology and light availability in the small, canyon-shaped Římov Reservoir in the Czech Republic to detect underlying trends, trend reversals and regime shifts. To do so, we fitted linear and piecewise linear regression and a regime shift model to the time series of mean annual values of each variable and to principal components produced by Principal Component Analysis. Models were weighted and ranked using Akaike information criterion and the model selection approach. Most environmental variables exhibited temporal changes that included time-varying trends and trend reversals. For instance, dissolved organic carbon showed a linear increasing trend while nitrate concentration or conductivity exemplified trend reversal. All trend reversals and cessations of temporal trends in reservoir hydrochemistry (except total phosphorus concentrations) occurred in the late 1980s and during 1990s as a consequence of dramatic socioeconomic changes. After a series of heavy rains in the late 1990s, an administrative decision to increase the flood-retention volume of the reservoir resulted in a significant regime shift in reservoir hydraulic conditions in 1999. Our analyses also highlight the utility of the model selection framework, based on relatively simple extensions of linear regression, to describe temporal trends in reservoir characteristics. This approach can

  17. Spatial correlation in precipitation trends in the Brazilian Amazon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buarque, Diogo Costa; Clarke, Robin T.; Mendes, Carlos Andre Bulhoes

    2010-06-01

    A geostatistical analysis of variables derived from Amazon daily precipitation records (trends in annual precipitation totals, trends in annual maximum precipitation accumulated over 1-5 days, trend in length of dry spell, trend in number of wet days per year) gave results that are consistent with those previously reported. Averaged over the Brazilian Amazon region as a whole, trends in annual maximum precipitations were slightly negative, the trend in the length of dry spell was slightly positive, and the trend in the number of wet days in the year was slightly negative. For trends in annual maximum precipitation accumulated over 1-5 days, spatial correlation between trends was found to extend up to a distance equivalent to at least half a degree of latitude or longitude, with some evidence of anisotropic correlation. Time trends in annual precipitation were found to be spatially correlated up to at least ten degrees of separation, in both W-E and S-N directions. Anisotropic spatial correlation was strongly evident in time trends in length of dry spell with much stronger evidence of spatial correlation in the W-E direction, extending up to at least five degrees of separation, than in the S-N. Because the time trends analyzed are shown to be spatially correlated, it is argued that methods at present widely used to test the statistical significance of climate trends over time lead to erroneous conclusions if spatial correlation is ignored, because records from different sites are assumed to be statistically independent.

  18. Time-trend analysis and developing a forecasting model for the prevalence of multiple sclerosis in Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad Province, southwest of Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mousavizadeh, A; Dastoorpoor, M; Naimi, E; Dohrabpour, K

    2018-01-01

    This study was designed and implemented to assess the current situation and to estimate the time trend of multiple sclerosis (MS), as well as to explain potential factors associated with such a trend. This longitudinal study was carried out based on analysis of the data from the monitoring and treatment surveillance system for 421 patients with MS in Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad Province, Iran, from 1990 to 2015. To this end, curve estimation approach was used to investigate the changes in prevalence and incidence of the disease, and univariate time series model analysis was applied in order to estimate the disease incidence in the next 10 years. The mean and standard deviation of age were 29.78 and 8.5 years at the time of diagnosis, and the mean and 95% confidence interval of age were 29.18 (28.86-30.77) and 29.68 (28.06-31.30) at the time of diagnosis for women and men, respectively. The sex ratio (males to females) was estimated as 3.3, and the prevalence of the disease was estimated as 60.14 in 100,000 people. The diagram of the 35-year trend of the disease indicated three distinct patterns with a tendency to increase in recent years. The prevalence and incidence trend of the disease in the study population is consistent with regional and global changes. Climatic and environmental factors such as extreme weather changes, dust particles, expansion of the application of new industrial materials, and regional wars with potential use of banned weapons are among the issues that may, in part, be able to justify the global and regional changes of the disease. Predictive models indicate a growing trend of the disease, highlighting the need for more regular monitoring of the disease trend in upcoming years. Copyright © 2017 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Hip Arthroscopy Surgical Volume Trends and 30-Day Postoperative Complications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cvetanovich, Gregory L; Chalmers, Peter N; Levy, David M; Mather, Richard C; Harris, Joshua D; Bush-Joseph, Charles A; Nho, Shane J

    2016-07-01

    To determine hip arthroscopy surgical volume trends from 2006 to 2013 using the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP) database, the incidence of 30-day complications of hip arthroscopy, and patient and surgical risk factors for complications. Patients who underwent hip arthroscopy from 2006 to 2013 were identified in the NSQIP database for the over 400 NSQIP participating hospitals from the United States using Current Procedural Terminology and International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision codes. Trends in number of hip arthroscopy procedures per year were analyzed. Complications in the 30-day period after hip arthroscopy were identified. Univariate and multivariate regression analyses were performed to identify risk factors for complications. We identified 1,338 patients who underwent hip arthroscopy, with a mean age of 39.5 ± 13.0 years. Female patients comprised 59.6%. Hip arthroscopy procedures became 25 times more common in 2013 than 2006 (P arthroscopy. Hip arthroscopy is an increasingly common procedure, with a 25-fold increase from 2006 to 2013. There is a low incidence of 30-day postoperative complications (1.3%), most commonly bleeding requiring a transfusion, return to the operating room, and superficial infection. Regional/monitored anesthesia care and steroid use were independent risk factors for minor complications. Level III, retrospective comparative study. Copyright © 2016 Arthroscopy Association of North America. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Uterine cervix cancer treatment at Radiumhemmet: 90 years' experience. Time trends of age, stage, and histopathology distribution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hellman, Kristina; Hellström, Ann-Cathrin; Pettersson, B Folke

    2014-04-01

    Since the introduction of screening programs for cervical cancer (CC) the incidence has decreased and CC is discovered at an earlier stage. The purpose of this study was to analyze time trends in age, stage, and histopathology over a 90-year period and to our knowledge this is the largest single institutional series in the literature of invasive cervical carcinoma (CC) cases. This is a retrospective study comprising 18,472 women treated for CC from 1914 until 2004 at Radiumhemmet, Stockholm. The material is part of the international CC statistics published since 1937 in the League of Nations' Annual Reports, and since 1958 under the patronage of International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO). During the 90-year study period, the annual number of cases treated increased to over 400 up until 1965, after which there was a gradual drop to less than 100 cases in 2004. A pronounced shift toward earlier stages at diagnosis was noted. The mean age at diagnosis increased in all stages, predominantly in advanced stages. A reduction in squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) cases and a sixfold increase in the proportion of adenocarcinoma (AC) cases were observed. The mean age at diagnosis for squamous and AC cases shifted after 1970, when the SCC cases ultimately became 3 years older than the AC cases in contrast to around 1950 when they were 3 years younger than the AC cases. The changes in the distribution by age, stage, and histopathology during this 90-year period are probably associated with: improved social conditions and increased access to health care, the introduction of screening programs for CC in the 1960s, and a change in the risk factors for CC (changed sexual behavior, introduction of contraceptive pills, and changed smoking habits). © 2014 The Authors. Cancer Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  1. International trends in patient selection for elective endovascular aneurysm repair: sicker patients with safer anatomy leading to improved 1-year survival.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fitridge, Robert A; Boult, Margaret; Mackillop, Clare; De Loryn, Tania; Barnes, Mary; Cowled, Prue; Thompson, Matthew M; Holt, Peter J; Karthikesalingam, Alan; Sayers, Robert D; Choke, Edward; Boyle, Jonathan R; Forbes, Thomas L; Novick, Teresa V

    2015-02-01

    To review the trends in patient selection and early death rate for patients undergoing elective endovascular repair of infrarenal abdominal aortic aneurysms (EVAR) in 3 countries. For this study, audit data from 4,163 patients who had undergone elective infrarenal EVAR were amalgamated. The data originated from Australia, Canada (Ontario), and England (London, Cambridge, and Leicester). Statistical analyses were undertaken to determine whether patient characteristics and early death rate varied between and within study groups and over time. The study design was retrospective analysis of data collected prospectively between 1999 and 2012. One-year survival improved over time (P = 0.0013). Canadian patients were sicker than those in Australia or England (P international comparison, several trends were noted including improved 1-year survival despite declining patient health (as measured by increasing ASA status). This may reflect greater knowledge regarding EVAR that centers from different countries have gained over the last decade and improved medical management of patients with aneurysmal disease. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Trends in prevalence of leisure time physical activity and inactivity: results from Australian National Health Surveys 1989 to 2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chau, Josephine; Chey, Tien; Burks-Young, Sarah; Engelen, Lina; Bauman, Adrian

    2017-12-01

    To examine trends in leisure time physical activity and inactivity in Australians aged 15 years or older from 1989 to 2011. We used data from six Australian National Health Surveys conducted from 1989/90 to 2011/12 in which physical activity was assessed using comparable questions. Analyses examined trends in the prevalence of sufficient physical activity (≥150 minutes/week moderate-to-vigorous physical activity) and of inactivity (benefits from sufficient physical activity. Maintenance of consistent physical activity questions in future National Health Surveys will facilitate long term tracking of physical activity levels in the Australian population. © 2017 The Authors.

  3. [Comparison of application of Cochran-Armitage trend test and linear regression analysis for rate trend analysis in epidemiology study].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, D Z; Wang, C; Shen, C F; Zhang, Y; Zhang, H; Song, G D; Xue, X D; Xu, Z L; Zhang, S; Jiang, G H

    2017-05-10

    We described the time trend of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) from 1999 to 2013 in Tianjin incidence rate with Cochran-Armitage trend (CAT) test and linear regression analysis, and the results were compared. Based on actual population, CAT test had much stronger statistical power than linear regression analysis for both overall incidence trend and age specific incidence trend (Cochran-Armitage trend P valuelinear regression P value). The statistical power of CAT test decreased, while the result of linear regression analysis remained the same when population size was reduced by 100 times and AMI incidence rate remained unchanged. The two statistical methods have their advantages and disadvantages. It is necessary to choose statistical method according the fitting degree of data, or comprehensively analyze the results of two methods.

  4. Assessment of vegetation trends in drylands from time series of earth observation data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fensholt, R.; Horion, S.; Tagesson, T.; Ehammer, A.; Grogan, K.; Tian, F.; Huber, S.; Verbesselt, J.; Prince, S.D.; Tucker, C.J.; Rasmussen, K.

    2015-01-01

    This chapter summarizes approaches to the detection of dryland vegetation change and methods for observing spatio-temporal trends from space. An overview of suitable long-term Earth Observation (EO) based datasets for assessment of global dryland vegetation trends is provided and a status map of

  5. Seasonal trend analysis and ARIMA modeling of relative humidity and wind speed time series around Yamula Dam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eymen, Abdurrahman; Köylü, Ümran

    2018-02-01

    Local climate change is determined by analysis of long-term recorded meteorological data. In the statistical analysis of the meteorological data, the Mann-Kendall rank test, which is one of the non-parametrical tests, has been used; on the other hand, for determining the power of the trend, Theil-Sen method has been used on the data obtained from 16 meteorological stations. The stations cover the provinces of Kayseri, Sivas, Yozgat, and Nevşehir in the Central Anatolia region of Turkey. Changes in land-use affect local climate. Dams are structures that cause major changes on the land. Yamula Dam is located 25 km northwest of Kayseri. The dam has huge water body which is approximately 85 km2. The mentioned tests have been used for detecting the presence of any positive or negative trend in meteorological data. The meteorological data in relation to the seasonal average, maximum, and minimum values of the relative humidity and seasonal average wind speed have been organized as time series and the tests have been conducted accordingly. As a result of these tests, the following have been identified: increase was observed in minimum relative humidity values in the spring, summer, and autumn seasons. As for the seasonal average wind speed, decrease was detected for nine stations in all seasons, whereas increase was observed in four stations. After the trend analysis, pre-dam mean relative humidity time series were modeled with Autoregressive Integrated Moving Averages (ARIMA) model which is statistical modeling tool. Post-dam relative humidity values were predicted by ARIMA models.

  6. An assessment of historical Antarctic precipitation and temperature trend using CMIP5 models and reanalysis datasets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Malcolm S. Y.; Chenoli, Sheeba Nettukandy; Samah, Azizan Abu; Hai, Ooi See

    2018-03-01

    The study of Antarctic precipitation has attracted a lot of attention recently. The reliability of climate models in simulating Antarctic precipitation, however, is still debatable. This work assess the precipitation and surface air temperature (SAT) of Antarctica (90 oS to 60 oS) using 49 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models and the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts "Interim" reanalysis (ERA-Interim); the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR); the Japan Meteorological Agency 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55); and the Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) datasets for 1979-2005 (27 years). For precipitation, the time series show that the MERRA and JRA-55 have significantly increased from 1979 to 2005, while the ERA-Int and CFSR have insignificant changes. The reanalyses also have low correlation with one another (generally less than +0.69). 37 CMIP5 models show increasing trend, 18 of which are significant. The resulting CMIP5 MMM also has a significant increasing trend of 0.29 ± 0.06 mm year-1. For SAT, the reanalyses show insignificant changes and have high correlation with one another, while the CMIP5 MMM shows a significant increasing trend. Nonetheless, the variability of precipitation and SAT of MMM could affect the significance of its trend. One of the many reasons for the large differences of precipitation is the CMIP5 models' resolution.

  7. Do economic players shape up fashion trends?

    OpenAIRE

    Hasan, Syed Akif; Subhani, Muhammad Imtiaz; Osman, Ms. Amber

    2012-01-01

    The behavior of following the most in vogue and admired styles of dressing has been there since the ancient times. With time, people have moved on with the rapid change in the surroundings. Both the genders acknowledge fashion. Fashion is an extension of regular clothing. This paper investigates the role of economical players which includes per capita income and inflations in shaping up the various trends/ fashion trends/ trends in clothing and their consumptions for Pakistan, India, United S...

  8. Diagnosis disclosure to adolescents living with HIV in rural Kenya improves antiretroviral therapy adherence and immunologic outcomes: A retrospective cohort study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gregg Joseph Montalto

    Full Text Available Emphasis on adolescent HIV has increased worldwide as antiretroviral treatment has greatly extended life expectancies of HIV-positive children. Few evidence-based guidelines exist on the optimal time to disclose to an adolescent living with HIV (ALHIV; little is known about the medical effects of disclosure. This study looked to determine whether disclosure is associated with improved medical outcomes in ALHIV. Prior work has tended to be qualitative, cross-sectional, and with an emphasis on psychosocial outcomes. This paper addresses the adolescent cohort retrospectively (longitudinally, building upon what is already known about disclosure.Retrospective, longitudinal clinical record reviews of ALHIV seen at Kericho District Hospital between April 2004 and November 2012 were performed. Patient demographics and clinical outcomes were systematically extracted. The student's t-test was used to calculate changes in mean CD4 count, antiretroviral therapy (ART, and cotrimoxazole adherence pre- vs. post-disclosure. Linear regression modelling assessed for trends in those clinical outcomes associated with age of disclosure.Ninety-six ALHIV (54 female, 42 male were included; most (73% entered care through the outpatient department. Nearly half were cared for by parents, and 20% experienced a change in their primary caregiver. The mean time in the study was 2.47 years; mean number of visits 10.97 per patient over the mean time in the study. Mean disclosure age was 12.34 years. An increase in mean ART adherence percentage was found with disclosure (0.802 vs. 0.917; p = 0.0015. Younger disclosure age was associated with significantly higher mean CD4 counts over the course of the study (p = 0.001, and a nonsignificant trend toward a higher mean ART adherence percentage (p = 0.055.ART adherence and improved immunologic status are both associated with disclosure of HIV infection to adolescent patients. Disclosure of an HIV diagnosis to an adolescent is an

  9. Suicide among children and adolescents in Canada: trends and sex differences, 1980-2008.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skinner, Robin; McFaull, Steven

    2012-06-12

    Suicide is the second leading cause of death for young Canadians (10-19 years of age)--a disturbing trend that has shown little improvement in recent years. Our objective was to examine suicide trends among Canadian children and adolescents. We conducted a retrospective analysis of standardized suicide rates using Statistics Canada mortality data for the period spanning from 1980 to 2008. We analyzed the data by sex and by suicide method over time for two age groups: 10-14 year olds (children) and 15-19 year olds (adolescents). We quantified annual trends by calculating the average annual percent change (AAPC). We found an average annual decrease of 1.0% (95% confidence interval [CI] -1.5 to -0.4) in the suicide rate for children and adolescents, but stratification by age and sex showed significant variation. We saw an increase in suicide by suffocation among female children (AAPC = 8.1%, 95% CI 6.0 to 10.4) and adolescents (AAPC = 8.0%, 95% CI 6.2 to 9.8). In addition, we noted a decrease in suicides involving poisoning and firearms during the study period. Our results show that suicide rates in Canada are increasing among female children and adolescents and decreasing among male children and adolescents. Limiting access to lethal means has some potential to mitigate risk. However, suffocation, which has become the predominant method for committing suicide for these age groups, is not amenable to this type of primary prevention.

  10. United States Forest Disturbance Trends Observed Using Landsat Time Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masek, Jeffrey G.; Goward, Samuel N.; Kennedy, Robert E.; Cohen, Warren B.; Moisen, Gretchen G.; Schleeweis, Karen; Huang, Chengquan

    2013-01-01

    Disturbance events strongly affect the composition, structure, and function of forest ecosystems; however, existing U.S. land management inventories were not designed to monitor disturbance. To begin addressing this gap, the North American Forest Dynamics (NAFD) project has examined a geographic sample of 50 Landsat satellite image time series to assess trends in forest disturbance across the conterminous United States for 1985-2005. The geographic sample design used a probability-based scheme to encompass major forest types and maximize geographic dispersion. For each sample location disturbance was identified in the Landsat series using the Vegetation Change Tracker (VCT) algorithm. The NAFD analysis indicates that, on average, 2.77 Mha/yr of forests were disturbed annually, representing 1.09%/yr of US forestland. These satellite-based national disturbance rates estimates tend to be lower than those derived from land management inventories, reflecting both methodological and definitional differences. In particular the VCT approach used with a biennial time step has limited sensitivity to low-intensity disturbances. Unlike prior satellite studies, our biennial forest disturbance rates vary by nearly a factor of two between high and low years. High western US disturbance rates were associated with active fire years and insect activity, while variability in the east is more strongly related to harvest rates in managed forests. We note that generating a geographic sample based on representing forest type and variability may be problematic since the spatial pattern of disturbance does not necessarily correlate with forest type. We also find that the prevalence of diffuse, non-stand clearing disturbance in US forests makes the application of a biennial geographic sample problematic. Future satellite-based studies of disturbance at regional and national scales should focus on wall-to-wall analyses with annual time step for improved accuracy.

  11. Trend patterns in global sea surface temperature

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barbosa, S.M.; Andersen, Ole Baltazar

    2009-01-01

    Isolating long-term trend in sea surface temperature (SST) from El Nino southern oscillation (ENSO) variability is fundamental for climate studies. In the present study, trend-empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, a robust space-time method for extracting trend patterns, is applied to iso...

  12. Fertility trends and net reproduction in Agincourt, rural South Africa, 1992-2004.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garenne, Michel L; Tollman, Stephen M; Collinson, Mark A; Kahn, Kathleen

    2007-08-01

    To analyse trends in fertility rates and net reproduction rates in Agincourt, a rural area of South Africa located in the former homeland of Gazankulu near the Mozambican border. Trends are analysed in the context of widely available modern contraceptive methods and increasing HIV/AIDS. A health and demographic surveillance system has been in place since 1992, covering a population of approximately 70,000 persons, with an annual census update and comprehensive recording of births and deaths. It was complemented by a retrospective study of fertility at baseline. Retrospective and prospective data were used to calculate trends in fertility, survival, and net reproduction. When possible, they were compared with data from other censuses and surveys in the same ethnic group. The fertility transition has almost ended over a course of 25 years in Agincourt. The total fertility rate (TFR) averaged 6.0 in 1979 and 2.3 in 2004. Fertility declined in proportionate fashion in all age groups including adolescents in the recent period. The net reproduction rate (NRR) declined from 1.8 to 1.0 during the prospective period (1992-2004). At current rates of change in fertility and mortality, the NRR can be expected to reach 0.63 by the year 2010. The situation of a below-replacement fertility level is new for rural Africa, and is likely to have many demographic, economic and social implications. The population could decline in the country as a whole, and is nearly static in Agincourt because of negative migration flows balancing the small excess from natural increase.

  13. Recent trends in 30-day mortality in patients with blunt splenic injury: A nationwide trauma database study in Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanaka, Chie; Tagami, Takashi; Matsumoto, Hisashi; Matsuda, Kiyoshi; Kim, Shiei; Moroe, Yuta; Fukuda, Reo; Unemoto, Kyoko; Yokota, Hiroyuki

    2017-01-01

    Splenic injury frequently occurs after blunt abdominal trauma; however, limited epidemiological data regarding mortality are available. We aimed to investigate mortality rate trends after blunt splenic injury in Japan. We retrospectively identified 1,721 adults with blunt splenic injury (American Association for the Surgery of Trauma splenic injury scale grades III-V) from the 2004-2014 Japan Trauma Data Bank. We grouped the records of these patients into 3 time phases: phase I (2004-2008), phase II (2009-2012), and phase III (2013-2014). Over the 3 phases, we analysed 30-day mortality rates and investigated their association with the prevalence of certain initial interventions (Mantel-Haenszel trend test). We further performed multiple imputation and multivariable analyses for comparing the characteristics and outcomes of patients who underwent TAE or splenectomy/splenorrhaphy, adjusting for known potential confounders and for within-hospital clustering using generalised estimating equation. Over time, there was a significant decrease in 30-day mortality after splenic injury (p splenic injury between 2004 and 2014, even after adjustment for within-hospital clustering and other factors independently associated with mortality. Over time, mortality rates decreased significantly after splenectomy/splenorrhaphy, but not after non-operative management. This information is useful for clinicians when making decisions about treatments for patients with blunt splenic injury.

  14. Time trends in primary-care morbidity, hospitalization and mortality due to pneumonia.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gageldonk-Lafeber, A.B. van; Bogaerts, M.A.H.; Verheij, R.; Sande, M.A.B. van der

    2009-01-01

    Most studies reporting pneumonia morbidity are restricted to hospitalized patients, although only a minority of pneumonia patients are admitted to hospital. To get a better understanding of the burden of disease in the general population, we conducted a population-based retrospective study to

  15. Temporal trends in non-occupational sedentary behaviours from Australian Time Use Surveys 1992, 1997 and 2006

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chau Josephine Y

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Current epidemiological data highlight the potential detrimental associations between sedentary behaviours and health outcomes, yet little is known about temporal trends in adult sedentary time. This study used time use data to examine population trends in sedentary behaviours in non-occupational domains and more specifically during leisure time. Methods We conducted secondary analysis of population representative data from the Australian Time Use Surveys 1992, 1997 and 2006 involving respondents aged 20 years and over with completed time use diaries for two days. Weighted samples for each survey year were: n = 5851 (1992, n = 6419 (1997 and n = 5505 (2006. We recoded all primary activities by domain (sleep, occupational, transport, leisure, household, education and intensity (sedentary, light, moderate. Adjusted multiple linear regressions tested for differences in time spent in non-occupational sedentary behaviours in 1992 and 1997 with 2006 as the reference year. Results Total non-occupational sedentary time was slightly lower in 1997 than in 2006 (mean = 894 min/2d and 906 min/2d, respectively; B = −11.2; 95%CI: -21.5, -0.9. Compared with 2006, less time was spent in 1997 in sedentary transport (B-6.7; 95%CI: -10.4, -3.0 and sedentary education (B = −6.3; 95%CI: -10.5, -2.2 while household and leisure sedentary time remained stable. Time engaged in different types of leisure-time sedentary activities changed between 1997 and 2006: leisure-time computer use increased (B = −26.7; 95%CI: -29.5, -23.8, while other leisure-time sedentary behaviours (e.g., reading, listening to music, hobbies and crafts showed small concurrent reductions. In 1992, leisure screen time was lower than in 2006: TV-viewing (B = −24.2; 95%CI: -31.2, -17.2, computer use (B = −35.3; 95%CI: -37.7, -32.8. In 2006, 90 % of leisure time was spent sedentary, of which 53 % was screen time. Conclusions Non

  16. Diagnosis, clinical staging, and treatment of breast cancer: a retrospective multiyear study of a large controlled population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Legorreta, Antonio P; Chernicoff, Helen O; Trinh, Jennifer B; Parker, Robert G

    2004-04-01

    This study compares diagnosis, staging, and treatment of newly diagnosed breast cancer cases over a several-year period. The study design was a retrospective, multiyear comparison between new breast cancer cases diagnosed in 1995 (n = 827) and 1997 (n = 815). Cases were identified through claims data, and medical record abstraction was used to verify each case and to identify clinical staging and type of treatment. All medical records were reviewed by one physician to maximize internal reliability. Both cohorts were predominantly 40 and older, white, married, and postmenopausal. The latter cohort (1997) had a higher proportion of women aged 70 to 79 and a lower proportion of women aged 40 to 49. In both cohorts, women age 40 and older were likely to be diagnosed with breast cancer at the time of mammographic screening, while women younger than 40 were more likely to be diagnosed by clinical breast examination. In logistic regression analyses, controlling for confounding factors such as age, undergoing mammographic screening increased the likelihood of having a low cancer stage at diagnosis by more than three and a half times. Mammographic screening was statistically significantly positively associated with having eligibility for breast-conserving treatment (BCT); however, although an increase in BCT eligibility was observed, actual use of BCT did not change. Mammography leads to a lower clinical stage as well as a greater likelihood of BCT eligibility at time of breast cancer diagnosis, but may not have a substantial effect on treatment choice (lumpectomy vs. mastectomy). Between 1995 and 1997, a trend was observed toward downstaging of disease at diagnosis; further research is warranted to observe whether this trend continues over time.

  17. Trends in hospital-physician integration in medical oncology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clough, Jeffrey D; Dinan, Michaela A; Schulman, Kevin A

    2017-10-01

    Hospitals have rapidly acquired medical oncology practices in recent years. Experts disagree as to whether these trends are related to oncology-specific market factors or reflect a general trend of hospital-physician integration. The objective of this study was to compare the prevalence, geographic variation, and trends in physicians billing from hospital outpatient departments in medical oncology with other specialties. Retrospective analysis of Medicare claims data for 2012 and 2013. We calculated the proportion of physicians and practitioners in the 15 highest-volume specialties who billed the majority of evaluation and management visits from hospital outpatient departments in each year, nationally and by state. We included 338,998 and 352,321 providers in 2012 and 2013, respectively, of whom 9715 and 9969 were medical oncologists. Among the 15 specialties examined, medical oncology had the highest proportion of hospital outpatient department billing in 2012 and 2013 (35.0% and 38.3%, respectively). Medical oncology also experienced the greatest absolute change (3.3%) between the years, followed by thoracic surgery (2.4%) and cardiology (2.0%). There was marked state-level variation, with the proportion of medical oncologists based in hospital outpatient departments ranging from 0% in Nevada to 100% in Idaho. Hospital-physician integration has been more pronounced in medical oncology than in other high-volume specialties and is increasing at a faster rate. Policy makers should take these findings into consideration, particularly with respect to recent proposals that may continue to fuel these trends.

  18. [Exercise-induced rhabdomyolysis - a new trend?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fardal, Hilde; Gøransson, Lasse G

    2016-10-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate whether or not there has been an increase in the number of admissions for exercise-induced rhabdomyolysis at Stavanger University Hospital (SUS) in recent years. The study is a retrospective review of patients discharged over the period January 2010 to March 2015 with a diagnosis of exercise-induced rhabdomyolysis and with maximum creatine kinase (CK) levels more than ten times the upper reference limit. A total of 33 patients, 21 women and 12 men, with a median age of 28 years (18 - 68), were included in the study. Of the 33 patients, three quarters (25) were admitted in 2014 - 15, compared with eight over the period 2010 - 13. One patient developed kidney failure that required dialysis. The treatment depended more on the attending physician and department than on the patient's clinical condition and CK-level, but this did not seem to affect the rate of complications. The incidence of exercise-induced rhabdomyolysis at SUS increased from autumn 2014, and this coincided with increased media attention and a new exercise trend. We recommend standardising the treatment of exercise-induced rhabdomyolysis, as current treatment recommendations are based on rhabdomyolysis triggered by causes other than exercise.

  19. Trends in Classroom Observation Scores

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casabianca, Jodi M.; Lockwood, J. R.; McCaffrey, Daniel F.

    2015-01-01

    Observations and ratings of classroom teaching and interactions collected over time are susceptible to trends in both the quality of instruction and rater behavior. These trends have potential implications for inferences about teaching and for study design. We use scores on the Classroom Assessment Scoring System-Secondary (CLASS-S) protocol from…

  20. Trend of Complete Hydatidiform Mole

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K Thapa

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: Complete Hydatidiform mole is one of the most frequent abnormal pregnancies. This review studies the trend of complete mole in Paropakar Maternity and Women's hospital and clinical ability to detect it. METHODS: This is a retrospective study of 504 cases of complete hydatidiform mole recorded at Paropakar maternity and women's hospital, Kathmandu, during 2058-2065 B.S. Medical records were reviewed and incidence, clinical presentation and method of diagnosis were studied. RESULTS: During the study period, there were 13,9117 births and 504 complete moles, 12 partial moles, 48 persistent gestational tumours, six choriocarcinoma and four invasive moles recorded in the hospital. The incidence of complete mole was one per 276 births. It was prevalent among women younger than 29 years (80% and among the primigravidae (36.7%. More than 90% women presented in the first half of their pregnancy and vaginal bleeding was the main complaint (68.3%. Suction evacuation, dilation and evacuation followed by sharp curettage and abdominal hysterectomy were performed in 80.6%, 17.6% and 1.2% of the women respectively. Persistent mole and choriocarcinoma developed in 9.5% and 0.4% respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Complete mole has the highest incidence. It affects mostly younger women and presents with vaginal bleeding most of the time, usually in the first half of their pregnancy. Keywords: complete hydatidiform mole, gestational trophoblastic disease, persistent gestational tumours.

  1. In search of functional association from time-series microarray data based on the change trend and level of gene expression

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zeng An-Ping

    2006-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The increasing availability of time-series expression data opens up new possibilities to study functional linkages of genes. Present methods used to infer functional linkages between genes from expression data are mainly based on a point-to-point comparison. Change trends between consecutive time points in time-series data have been so far not well explored. Results In this work we present a new method based on extracting main features of the change trend and level of gene expression between consecutive time points. The method, termed as trend correlation (TC, includes two major steps: 1, calculating a maximal local alignment of change trend score by dynamic programming and a change trend correlation coefficient between the maximal matched change levels of each gene pair; 2, inferring relationships of gene pairs based on two statistical extraction procedures. The new method considers time shifts and inverted relationships in a similar way as the local clustering (LC method but the latter is merely based on a point-to-point comparison. The TC method is demonstrated with data from yeast cell cycle and compared with the LC method and the widely used Pearson correlation coefficient (PCC based clustering method. The biological significance of the gene pairs is examined with several large-scale yeast databases. Although the TC method predicts an overall lower number of gene pairs than the other two methods at a same p-value threshold, the additional number of gene pairs inferred by the TC method is considerable: e.g. 20.5% compared with the LC method and 49.6% with the PCC method for a p-value threshold of 2.7E-3. Moreover, the percentage of the inferred gene pairs consistent with databases by our method is generally higher than the LC method and similar to the PCC method. A significant number of the gene pairs only inferred by the TC method are process-identity or function-similarity pairs or have well-documented biological

  2. Googling trends in conservation biology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Proulx, Raphaël; Massicotte, Philippe; Pépino, Marc

    2014-02-01

    Web-crawling approaches, that is, automated programs data mining the internet to obtain information about a particular process, have recently been proposed for monitoring early signs of ecosystem degradation or for establishing crop calendars. However, lack of a clear conceptual and methodological framework has prevented the development of such approaches within the field of conservation biology. Our objective was to illustrate how Google Trends, a freely accessible web-crawling engine, can be used to track changes in timing of biological processes, spatial distribution of invasive species, and level of public awareness about key conservation issues. Google Trends returns the number of internet searches that were made for a keyword in a given region of the world over a defined period. Using data retrieved online for 13 countries, we exemplify how Google Trends can be used to study the timing of biological processes, such as the seasonal recurrence of pollen release or mosquito outbreaks across a latitudinal gradient. We mapped the spatial extent of results from Google Trends for 5 invasive species in the United States and found geographic patterns in invasions that are consistent with their coarse-grained distribution at state levels. From 2004 through 2012, Google Trends showed that the level of public interest and awareness about conservation issues related to ecosystem services, biodiversity, and climate change increased, decreased, and followed both trends, respectively. Finally, to further the development of research approaches at the interface of conservation biology, collective knowledge, and environmental management, we developed an algorithm that allows the rapid retrieval of Google Trends data. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

  3. Trends in Community Pharmacy Counts and Closures before and after the Implementation of Medicare Part D

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klepser, Donald G.; Xu, Liyan; Ullrich, Fred; Mueller, Keith J.

    2011-01-01

    Purpose: Medicare Part D provided 3.4 million American seniors with prescription drug insurance. It may also have had an unintended effect on pharmacy viability. This study compares trends in the number of pharmacies and rate of pharmacy closures before and after the implementation of Medicare Part D. Methods: This retrospective observational…

  4. Food Trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwenk, Nancy E.

    1991-01-01

    An overall perspective on trends in food consumption is presented. Nutrition awareness is at an all-time high; consumption is influenced by changes in disposable income, availability of convenience foods, smaller household size, and an increasing proportion of ethnic minorities in the population. (18 references) (LB)

  5. Time trend tendency (1988-2014 years) of organochlorine pesticide levels in the adipose tissue of Veracruz inhabitants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calderón-Garcidueñas, Ana Laura; Waliszewski, Stefan M; Ruiz-Ramos, Rubén; Del Carmen Martinez-Valenzuela, María

    2018-03-10

    The population that lives in areas where organochlorine pesticides were spread in the past is still exposed to them through contaminated food, particulate matter, and vapors. Due to their lipophilic properties and resistance to metabolic reactions, they accumulate in tissues and fluids rich in lipids. The aim of the study was to monitor the concentrations of organochlorine pesticides in forensic adipose tissue samples of adult inhabitants of Veracruz City, Mexico, and compare their time trend levels from 1988 to 2014. During the study, hexachlorobenzene (HCB); lindane; β-hexachorocyclohexane; p,p'-dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene (pp'DDE); p,p'-dichlorodiphenyldichloroethane (p,p'-DDT); and o,p'-dichlorodiphenyldichloroethane (o,p'-DDT) were determined. Our survey was divided into two periods: first, from the years 1988 to 1999, during which DDT was allowed to fight malaria and dengue vectors and the second from the years 2001 to 2014, after the DDT ban. A total of 1435 samples were analyzed. There were substantial differences in the forecasted time trend values of p,p'-DDE and p,p'-DDT in human adipose tissue samples in the two different periods. During the first period, p,p'-DDE decrease time trend was 1.198 mg/kg on lipid base per year; for the second one, decrease was 0.128 mg/kg on lipid base per year. p,p'-DDT decreased 0.507 mg/kg on lipid base during the first period and 0.039 mg/kg on lipid base for the second. The different concentrations may be explained by the cessation of fresh exposure after the first period and a more equilibrated decontamination tendency during the second period. This model was useful to show the decrease in the concentration of pesticides in human adipose tissue samples.

  6. Uterine cervix cancer treatment at Radiumhemmet: 90 years′ experience. Time trends of age, stage, and histopathology distribution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hellman, Kristina; Hellström, Ann-Cathrin; Pettersson, B Folke

    2014-01-01

    Since the introduction of screening programs for cervical cancer (CC) the incidence has decreased and CC is discovered at an earlier stage. The purpose of this study was to analyze time trends in age, stage, and histopathology over a 90-year period and to our knowledge this is the largest single institutional series in the literature of invasive cervical carcinoma (CC) cases. This is a retrospective study comprising 18,472 women treated for CC from 1914 until 2004 at Radiumhemmet, Stockholm. The material is part of the international CC statistics published since 1937 in the League of Nations' Annual Reports, and since 1958 under the patronage of International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO). During the 90-year study period, the annual number of cases treated increased to over 400 up until 1965, after which there was a gradual drop to less than 100 cases in 2004. A pronounced shift toward earlier stages at diagnosis was noted. The mean age at diagnosis increased in all stages, predominantly in advanced stages. A reduction in squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) cases and a sixfold increase in the proportion of adenocarcinoma (AC) cases were observed. The mean age at diagnosis for squamous and AC cases shifted after 1970, when the SCC cases ultimately became 3 years older than the AC cases in contrast to around 1950 when they were 3 years younger than the AC cases. The changes in the distribution by age, stage, and histopathology during this 90-year period are probably associated with: improved social conditions and increased access to health care, the introduction of screening programs for CC in the 1960s, and a change in the risk factors for CC (changed sexual behavior, introduction of contraceptive pills, and changed smoking habits). This is a study on changes in the distribution by age, stage, and histopathology in a large series of cervical cancer treated in Sweden during a 90-year period. It also includes an historical review about the development

  7. Time trends in the levels and patterns of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in pine bark, litter, and soil after a forest fire.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Sung-Deuk

    2014-02-01

    Forest fires are known as an important natural source of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), but time trends of PAH levels and patterns in various environmental compartments after forest fires have not been thoroughly studied yet. In this study, 16 US-EPA priority PAHs were analyzed for pine bark, litter, and soil samples collected one, three, five, and seven months after a forest fire in Pohang, South Korea. At the first sampling event, the highest levels of ∑16 PAHs were measured for the three types of samples (pine bark: 5,920 ng/g, litter: 1,540 ng/g, and soil: 133 ng/g). Thereafter, there were apparent decreasing trends in PAH levels; the control samples showed the lowest levels (pine bark: 124 ng/g, litter: 75 ng/g, and soil: 26 ng/g). The levels of PAHs in the litter and soil samples normalized by organic carbon (OC) fractions also showed decreasing trends, indicating a direct influence of the forest fire. Among the 16 target PAHs, naphthalene was a dominant compound for all types of samples. Light PAHs with 2-4 rings significantly contributed to the total concentration, and their contribution decreased in the course of time. Runoff by heavy precipitation, evaporation, and degradation of PAHs in the summer were probably the main reasons for the observed time trends. The results of principal component analysis (PCA) and diagnostic ratio also supported that the forest fire was indeed an important source of PAHs in the study area. © 2013.

  8. A retrospective analysis of nickel exposure data at a South African base metal refinery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, Monica M; Van Der Merwe, Cornelius J; Linde, Stefan J L; Du Plessis, Johan L

    2018-03-01

    This study aimed to analyze historical soluble nickel exposure data from a South African base metal refinery and to identify trends in the soluble nickel exposure from 1981 until 2014 in the electrowinning department. Exposure data were presented in an exposure matrix, which described exposure profiles for both area and personal exposures inside two tankhouses. Exposure data were standardized by converting total nickel aerosol concentrations to inhalable nickel concentrations (correction factor 3.0). One-way analyses of variances (ANOVA) were conducted to identify significant differences in log-transformed area and personal exposures from 1982 until 2014, and the trends were assessed with linear regression. Differences were evaluated in area exposure between sections inside the tankhouses, i.e., East, West, and Center bays and in personal exposure between occupations, i.e., cell workers, crane drivers, and supervisors. Area exposure in Tankhouse 1 declined significantly (p ≤ 0.0001) between 1982 and 1986 with a factor of 29. However, after 1986 no significant downward trend in area exposure was evident in Tankhouse 1. Personal exposures in Tankhouse 1 significantly (p ≤ 0.0001) decreased with a factor of three between 1991 and 2014. No significant trends were evident in area and personal exposure in Tankhouse 2. Downward exposure trends were evident in Tankhouse 1 and may be ascribed to the implementation of various control measures and process changes, e.g., increasing polypropylene bead load. Limited data were available for Tankhouse 2, therefore, no trend in exposure could be established. Retrospective analyses may be used to identify trends and anomalies in exposure which might not have been identified during daily exposure monitoring.

  9. Uncovering the Problem-Solving Process: Cued Retrospective Reporting Versus Concurrent and Retrospective Reporting

    OpenAIRE

    Van Gog, Tamara; Paas, Fred; Van Merriënboer, Jeroen; Witte, P.

    2007-01-01

    This study investigated the amounts of problem-solving process information ("action," "why," "how," and "metacognitive") elicited by means of concurrent, retrospective, and cued retrospective reporting. In a within-participants design, 26 participants completed electrical circuit troubleshooting tasks under different reporting conditions. The method of cued retrospective reporting used the original computer-based task and a superimposed record of the participant's eye fixations and mouse-keyb...

  10. Wet-bulb, dew point, and air temperature trends in Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moratiel, R.; Soriano, B.; Centeno, A.; Spano, D.; Snyder, R. L.

    2017-10-01

    This study analyses trends of mean ( T m), maximum ( T x), minimum ( T n), dew point ( T d), and wet-bulb temperatures ( T w) on an annual, seasonal, and monthly time scale over Spain during the period 1981-2010. The main purpose was to determine how temperature and humidity changes are impacting on T w, which is probably a better measure of climate change than temperature alone. In this study, 43 weather stations were used to detect data trends using the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test and the Sen method to estimate the slope of trends. Significant linear trends observed for T m, T x, and T n versus year were 56, 58, and 47 % of the weather stations, respectively, with temperature ranges between 0.2 and 0.4 °C per decade. The months with bigger trends were April, May, June, and July with the highest trend for T x. The spatial behaviour of T d and T w was variable, with various locations showing trends from -0.6 to +0.3 °C per decade for T d and from -0.4 to +0.5 °C per decade for T w. Both T d and T w showed negative trends for July, August, September, November, and December. Comparing the trends versus time of each variable versus each of the other variables exhibited poor relationships, which means you cannot predict the trend of one variable from the trend of another variable. The trend of T x was not related to the trend of T n. The trends of T x, T m, and T n versus time were unrelated to the trends versus time of either T d or T w. The trend of T w showed a high coefficient of determination with the trend of T d with an annual value of R 2 = 0.86. Therefore, the T w trend is more related to changes in humidity than temperature.

  11. Pain Management for Sickle Cell Disease in the Pediatric Emergency Department: Medications and Hospitalization Trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cacciotti, Chantel; Vaiselbuh, Sarah; Romanos-Sirakis, Eleny

    2017-10-01

    The majority of emergency department (ED) visits and hospitalizations for patients with sickle cell disease (SCD) are pain related. Adequate and timely pain management may improve quality of life and prevent worsening morbidities. We conducted a retrospective chart review of pediatric patients with SCD seen in the ED, selected by sickle cell-related ICD-9 codes. A total of 176 encounters were reviewed from 47 patients to record ED pain management and hospitalization trends. Mean time to pain medication administration was 63 minutes. Patients received combination (nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug [NSAID] + narcotic) pain medications for initial treatment at a minority of ED encounters (19%). A higher percentage of patients who received narcotics alone as initial treatment were hospitalized as compared with those who received combination treatment initially ( P= 0.0085). Improved patient education regarding home pain management as well as standardized ED guidelines for assessment and treatment of sickle cell pain may result in superior and more consistent patient care.

  12. Time-trend of melanoma screening practice by primary care physicians: a meta-regression analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valachis, Antonis; Mauri, Davide; Karampoiki, Vassiliki; Polyzos, Nikolaos P; Cortinovis, Ivan; Koukourakis, Georgios; Zacharias, Georgios; Xilomenos, Apostolos; Tsappi, Maria; Casazza, Giovanni

    2009-01-01

    To assess whether the proportion of primary care physicians implementing full body skin examination (FBSE) to screen for melanoma changed over time. Meta-regression analyses of available data. MEDLINE, ISI, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials. Fifteen studies surveying 10,336 physicians were included in the analyses. Overall, 15%-82% of them reported to perform FBSE to screen for melanoma. The proportion of physicians using FBSE screening tended to decrease by 1.72% per year (P =0.086). Corresponding annual changes in European, North American, and Australian settings were -0.68% (P =0.494), -2.02% (P =0.044), and +2.59% (P =0.010), respectively. Changes were not influenced by national guide-lines. Considering the increasing incidence of melanoma and other skin malignancies, as well as their relative potential consequences, the FBSE implementation time-trend we retrieved should be considered a worrisome phenomenon.

  13. Agenda trending: reciprocity and the predictive capacity of social networking sites in intermedia agenda setting across topics over time

    OpenAIRE

    Groshek, Jacob; Groshek, Megan Clough

    2013-01-01

    In the contemporary converged media environment, agenda setting is being transformed by the dramatic growth of audiences that are simultaneously media users and producers. The study reported here addresses related gaps in the literature by first comparing the topical agendas of two leading traditional media outlets (New York Times and CNN) with the most frequently shared stories and trending topics on two widely popular Social Networking Sites (Facebook and Twitter). Time-series analyses of t...

  14. Mobile eHealth interventions for obesity: a timely opportunity to leverage convergence trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tufano, James T; Karras, Bryant T

    2005-12-20

    Obesity is often cited as the most prevalent chronic health condition and highest priority public health problem in the United States. There is a limited but growing body of evidence suggesting that mobile eHealth behavioral interventions, if properly designed, may be effective in promoting and sustaining successful weight loss and weight maintenance behavior changes. This paper reviews the current literature on the successes and failures of public health, provider-administered, and self-managed behavioral health interventions for weight loss. The prevailing theories of health behavior change are discussed from the perspective of how this knowledge can serve as an evidence base to inform the design of mobile eHealth weight loss interventions. Tailored informational interventions, which, in recent years, have proven to be the most effective form of conventional health behavior intervention for weight loss, are discussed. Lessons learned from the success of conventional tailored informational interventions and the early successes of desktop computer-assisted self-help weight management interventions are presented, as are design principles suggested by Social Cognitive Theory and the Social Marketing Model. Relevant computing and communications technology convergence trends are also discussed. The recent trends in rapid advancement, convergence, and public adoption of Web-enabled cellular telephone and wireless personal digital assistant (PDA) devices provide timely opportunities to deliver the mass customization capabilities, reach, and interactivity required for the development, administration, and adoption of effective population-level eHealth tailored informational interventions for obesity.

  15. Trend assessment: applications for hydrology and climate research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kallache, M.; Rust, H. W.; Kropp, J.

    2005-02-01

    The assessment of trends in climatology and hydrology still is a matter of debate. Capturing typical properties of time series, like trends, is highly relevant for the discussion of potential impacts of global warming or flood occurrences. It provides indicators for the separation of anthropogenic signals and natural forcing factors by distinguishing between deterministic trends and stochastic variability. In this contribution river run-off data from gauges in Southern Germany are analysed regarding their trend behaviour by combining a deterministic trend component and a stochastic model part in a semi-parametric approach. In this way the trade-off between trend and autocorrelation structure can be considered explicitly. A test for a significant trend is introduced via three steps: First, a stochastic fractional ARIMA model, which is able to reproduce short-term as well as long-term correlations, is fitted to the empirical data. In a second step, wavelet analysis is used to separate the variability of small and large time-scales assuming that the trend component is part of the latter. Finally, a comparison of the overall variability to that restricted to small scales results in a test for a trend. The extraction of the large-scale behaviour by wavelet analysis provides a clue concerning the shape of the trend.

  16. Time Trends over 16 Years in Incidence-Rates of Autism Spectrum Disorders across the Lifespan Based on Nationwide Danish Register Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jensen, Christina Mohr; Steinhausen, Hans-Christoph; Lauritsen, Marlene Briciet

    2014-01-01

    This study investigated time trends and associated factors of incidence rates of diagnosed autism spectrum disorders (ASD) across the lifespan from 1995 to 2010, using data from the Danish Psychiatric Central Research Registry. First time diagnosis of childhood autism, atypical autism, Asperger's syndrome, or pervasive developmental…

  17. Trends in US home food preparation and consumption: analysis of national nutrition surveys and time use studies from 1965-1966 to 2007-2008.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Lindsey P; Ng, Shu Wen; Popkin, Barry M

    2013-04-11

    It has been well-documented that Americans have shifted towards eating out more and cooking at home less. However, little is known about whether these trends have continued into the 21st century, and whether these trends are consistent amongst low-income individuals, who are increasingly the target of public health programs that promote home cooking. The objective of this study is to examine how patterns of home cooking and home food consumption have changed from 1965 to 2008 by socio-demographic groups. This is a cross-sectional analysis of data from 6 nationally representative US dietary surveys and 6 US time-use studies conducted between 1965 and 2008. Subjects are adults aged 19 to 60 years (n= 38,565 for dietary surveys and n=55,424 for time-use surveys). Weighted means of daily energy intake by food source, proportion who cooked, and time spent cooking were analyzed for trends from 1965-1966 to 2007-2008 by gender and income. T-tests were conducted to determine statistical differences over time. The percentage of daily energy consumed from home food sources and time spent in food preparation decreased significantly for all socioeconomic groups between 1965-1966 and 2007-2008 (p ≤ 0.001), with the largest declines occurring between 1965 and 1992. In 2007-2008, foods from the home supply accounted for 65 to 72% of total daily energy, with 54 to 57% reporting cooking activities. The low income group showed the greatest decline in the proportion cooking, but consumed more daily energy from home sources and spent more time cooking than high income individuals in 2007-2008 (p ≤ 0.001). US adults have decreased consumption of foods from the home supply and reduced time spent cooking since 1965, but this trend appears to have leveled off, with no substantial decrease occurring after the mid-1990's. Across socioeconomic groups, people consume the majority of daily energy from the home food supply, yet only slightly more than half spend any time cooking on a given

  18. Modeling trends of health and health related indicators in Ethiopia (1995-2008: a time-series study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nigatu Tilahun H

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The Federal Ministry of Health of Ethiopia has been publishing Health and Health related indicators of the country annually since 1987 E.C. These indicators have been of high importance in indicating the status of health in the country in those years. However, the trends/patterns of these indicators and the factors related to the trends have not yet been investigated in a systematic manner. In addition, there were minimal efforts to develop a model for predicting future values of Health and Health related indicators based on the current trend. Objectives The overall aim of this study was to analyze trends of and develop model for prediction of Health and Health related indicators. More specifically, it described the trends of Health and Health related indicators, identified determinants of mortality and morbidity indicators and developed model for predicting future values of MDG indicators. Methods This study was conducted on Health and Health related indicators of Ethiopia from the year 1987 E.C to 2000 E.C. Key indicators of Mortality and Morbidity, Health service coverage, Health systems resources, Demographic and socio-economic, and Risk factor indicators were extracted and analyzed. The trends in these indicators were established using trend analysis techniques. The determinants of the established trends were identified using ARIMA models in STATA. The trend-line equations were then used to predict future values of the indicators. Results Among the mortality indicators considered in this study, it was only Maternal Mortality Ratio that showed statistically significant decrement within the study period. The trends of Total Fertility Rate, physician per 100,000 population, skilled birth attendance and postnatal care coverage were found to have significant association with Maternal Mortality Ratio trend. There was a reversal of malaria parasite prevalence in 1999 E.C from Plasmodium Falciparum to Plasmodium Vivax. Based on

  19. Estimation of river and stream temperature trends under haphazard sampling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gray, Brian R.; Lyubchich, Vyacheslav; Gel, Yulia R.; Rogala, James T.; Robertson, Dale M.; Wei, Xiaoqiao

    2015-01-01

    Long-term temporal trends in water temperature in rivers and streams are typically estimated under the assumption of evenly-spaced space-time measurements. However, sampling times and dates associated with historical water temperature datasets and some sampling designs may be haphazard. As a result, trends in temperature may be confounded with trends in time or space of sampling which, in turn, may yield biased trend estimators and thus unreliable conclusions. We address this concern using multilevel (hierarchical) linear models, where time effects are allowed to vary randomly by day and date effects by year. We evaluate the proposed approach by Monte Carlo simulations with imbalance, sparse data and confounding by trend in time and date of sampling. Simulation results indicate unbiased trend estimators while results from a case study of temperature data from the Illinois River, USA conform to river thermal assumptions. We also propose a new nonparametric bootstrap inference on multilevel models that allows for a relatively flexible and distribution-free quantification of uncertainties. The proposed multilevel modeling approach may be elaborated to accommodate nonlinearities within days and years when sampling times or dates typically span temperature extremes.

  20. Inter-fraction bladder filling variations and time trends for cervical cancer patients assessed with a portable 3-dimensional ultrasound bladder scanner

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahmad, Rozilawati; Hoogeman, Mischa S.; Quint, Sandra; Mens, Jan Willem; Pree, Ilse de; Heijmen, Ben J.M.

    2008-01-01

    Background and Purpose: For cervical cancer patients, bladder filling variations may result in inadequate EBRT target coverage, unless large safety margins are used. For a group of patients who received full bladder instructions, inter-fraction variations and time trends in bladder volume were quantified, and a 3D ultrasound (US) scanner was tested for on-line bladder volume measurements. Methods and materials: For 24 patients, the bladder volume was measured with US at the time of the planning CT scan, and twice weekly during the course of RT. Comparisons of US with planning CT were used to assess the bladder scanner accuracy. Patients were treated in prone on a belly board, EPID images were acquired to correlate set-up errors with bladder filling variations. Results: Measured US and CT bladder volumes were strongly correlated (R = 0.97, slope 1.1 ± 0.1). The population mean bladder volume at planning of 378 ± 209 ml (1 SD) reduced to 109 ± 88 ml (1 SD) in week 6, a reduction by 71% (average reduction 46 ml/week), revealing a large inter-fraction time trend. Intra-patient variation in bladder volume during RT was 168 ml (1 SD) (range 70-266 ml). Rotation around the LR axis was significantly correlated with bladder volume changes. Conclusions: Despite a full bladder instruction, bladder volumes reduced dramatically during treatment, implying large time trends in target position of these patients. The portable US scanner provides a quick and reliable measurement of the bladder volume, which might assist future online treatment adaptation

  1. Time trends in burdens of cadmium, lead, and mercury in the population of northern Sweden

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wennberg, Maria; Lundh, Thomas; Bergdahl, Ingvar A.; Hallmans, Goeran; Jansson, Jan-Hakan; Stegmayr, Birgitta; Custodio, Hipolito M.; Skerfving, Staffan

    2006-01-01

    The time trends of exposure to heavy metals are not adequately known. This is a worldwide problem with regard to the basis for preventive actions and evaluation of their effects. This study addresses time trends for the three toxic elements cadmium (Cd), mercury (Hg), and lead (Pb). Concentrations in erythrocytes (Ery) were determined in a subsample of the population-based MONICA surveys from 1990, 1994, and 1999 in a total of 600 men and women aged 25-74 years. The study took place in the two northernmost counties in Sweden. To assess the effect of changes in the environment, adjustments were made for life-style factors that are determinants of exposure. Annual decreases of 5-6% were seen for Ery-Pb levels (adjusted for age and changes in alcohol intake) and Ery-Hg levels (adjusted for age and changes in fish intake). Ery-Cd levels (adjusted for age) showed a similar significant decrease in smoking men. It is concluded that for Pb and maybe also Hg the actions against pollution during recent decades have caused a rapid decrease of exposure; for Hg the decreased use of dental amalgam may also have had an influence. For Cd, the decline in Ery-Cd was seen only in smokers, indicating that Cd exposure from tobacco has decreased, while other environmental sources of Cd have not changed significantly. To further improve the health status in Sweden, it is important to decrease the pollution of Cd, and actions against smoking in the community are important

  2. Change Points in the Population Trends of Aerial-Insectivorous Birds in North America: Synchronized in Time across Species and Regions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam C Smith

    Full Text Available North American populations of aerial insectivorous birds are in steep decline. Aerial insectivores (AI are a group of bird species that feed almost exclusively on insects in flight, and include swallows, swifts, nightjars, and flycatchers. The causes of the declines are not well understood. Indeed, it is not clear when the declines began, or whether the declines are shared across all species in the group (e.g., caused by changes in flying insect populations or specific to each species (e.g., caused by changes in species' breeding habitat. A recent study suggested that population trends of aerial insectivores changed for the worse in the 1980s. If there was such a change point in trends of the group, understanding its timing and geographic pattern could help identify potential causes of the decline. We used a hierarchical Bayesian, penalized regression spline, change point model to estimate group-level change points in the trends of 22 species of AI, across 153 geographic strata of North America. We found evidence for group-level change points in 85% of the strata. Change points for flycatchers (FC were distinct from those for swallows, swifts and nightjars (SSN across North America, except in the Northeast, where all AI shared the same group-level change points. During the 1980s, there was a negative change point across most of North America, in the trends of SSN. For FC, the group-level change points were more geographically variable, and in many regions there were two: a positive change point followed by a negative change point. This group-level synchrony in AI population trends is likely evidence of a response to a common environmental factor(s with similar effects on many species across broad spatial extents. The timing and geographic patterns of the change points that we identify here should provide a spring-board for research into the causes behind aerial insectivore declines.

  3. Time Trends and Predictors of Abnormal Postoperative Body Temperature in Infants Transported to the Intensive Care Unit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hedwig Schroeck

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Despite increasing adoption of active warming methods over the recent years, little is known about the effectiveness of these interventions on the occurrence of abnormal postoperative temperatures in sick infants. Methods. Preoperative and postoperative temperature readings, patient characteristics, and procedural factors of critically ill infants at a single institution were retrieved retrospectively from June 2006 until May 2014. The primary endpoints were the incidence and trend of postoperative hypothermia and hyperthermia on arrival at the intensive care units. Univariate and adjusted analyses were performed to identify factors independently associated with abnormal postoperative temperatures. Results. 2,350 cases were included. 82% were normothermic postoperatively, while hypothermia and hyperthermia each occurred in 9% of cases. During the study period, hypothermia decreased from 24% to 2% (p<0.0001 while hyperthermia remained unchanged (13% in 2006, 8% in 2014, p=0.357. Factors independently associated with hypothermia were higher ASA status (p=0.02, lack of intraoperative convective warming (p<0.001 and procedure date before 2010 (p<0.001. Independent associations for postoperative hyperthermia included lower body weight (p=0.01 and procedure date before 2010 (p<0.001. Conclusions. We report an increase in postoperative normothermia rates in critically ill infants from 2006 until 2014. Careful monitoring to avoid overcorrection and hyperthermia is recommended.

  4. Breast cancer screening in Italy: evaluating key performance indicators for time trends and activity volumes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giordano, Livia; Castagno, Roberta; Giorgi, Daniela; Piccinelli, Cristiano; Ventura, Leonardo; Segnan, Nereo; Zappa, Marco

    2015-01-01

    Together with the National centre for screening monitoring (ONS), GISMa supports annual collection of data on national breast screening activities. Aggregated data on implementation and performance are gathered through a standardized form to calculate process and impact indicators. Analyzed data belong to 153 local programmes in the period 2006-2011 (2006-2012 for participation rate only). During the whole period, Italian crude participation rate exceeded GISMa's acceptable standard (50%), even though a higher participation in northern and central Italy compared to southern Italy and Islands was observed. Time trend analysis of diagnostic indicators confirmed in 2011 an adequate quality of breast screening performance, especially at subsequent screening. Recall rate at initial screening did not reach the acceptable standard (performance was achieved at subsequent screening. The same trend was followed by the overall detection rate and positive predictive value. They both showed a progressive reduction (from 6.2‰ in 2006 to 4.5‰ in 2011 for DR and from 8.0% in 2006 to 5.2% in 2011 for PPV, respectively) at initial screening and a good, stable trend at subsequent screening. Activity volume analysis shows that in programmes with greater activity (test/year ≥10,000) RR at both initial and subsequent screening has a better performance. This is also true for DR and PPV where programmes with high volumes of activity do better, especially when compared with those that interpret fewer than 5,000 mammograms per year. In spite of a few limits, these results are reassuring, and they reward the efforts made by screening professionals. It is therefore important to continue to monitor screening indicators and suggest, test, and evaluate new strategies for continuous improvement.

  5. An analysis of Emergency Medical Services demand: Time of day, day of the week, and location in the city.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sariyer, Gorkem; Ataman, Mustafa Gokalp; Akay, Serhat; Sofuoglu, Turhan; Sofuoglu, Zeynep

    2017-06-01

    Effective planning of Emergency Medical Services (EMS), which is highly dependent on the analysis of past data trends, is important in reducing response time. Thus, we aimed to analyze demand for these services based on time and location trends to inform planning for an effective EMS. Data for this retrospective study were obtained from the Izmir EMS 112 system. All calls reaching these services during first six months of 2013 were descriptively analyzed, based on time and location trends as a heat-map form. The analyses showed that demand for EMS varied within different time periods of day, and according to day of the week. For the night period, demand was higher at the weekend compared to weekdays, whereas for daytime hours, demand was higher during the week. For weekdays, a statistically significant relation was observed between the call distribution of morning and evening periods. It was also observed that the percentage of demand changed according to location. Among 30 locations, the five most frequent destinations for ambulances, which are also correlated with high population densities, accounted for 55.66% of the total. The results of this study shed valuable light on the areas of call center planning and optimal ambulance locations of Izmir, which can also be served as an archetype for other cities.

  6. Time trends in exposure of cattle to bovine spongiform encephalopathy and cohort effect in France and Italy: value of the classical Age-Period-Cohort approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sala, Carole; Ru, Giuseppe

    2009-09-18

    The Age-Period-Cohort (APC) analysis is routinely used for time trend analysis of cancer incidence or mortality rates, but in veterinary epidemiology, there are still only a few examples of this application. APC models were recently used to model the French epidemic assuming that the time trend for BSE was mainly due to a cohort effect in relation to the control measures that may have modified the BSE exposure of cohorts over time. We used a categorical APC analysis which did not require any functional form for the effect of the variables, and examined second differences to estimate the variation of the BSE trend. We also reanalysed the French epidemic and performed a simultaneous analysis of Italian data using more appropriate birth cohort categories for comparison. We used data from the exhaustive surveillance carried out in France and Italy between 2001 and 2007, and comparatively described the trend of the epidemic in both countries. At the end, the shape and irregularities of the trends were discussed in light of the main control measures adopted to control the disease. In Italy a decrease in the epidemic became apparent from 1996, following the application of rendering standards for the processing of specific risk material (SRM). For the French epidemic, the pattern of second differences in the birth cohorts confirmed the beginning of the decrease from 1995, just after the implementation of the meat and bone meal (MBM) ban for all ruminants (1994). The APC analysis proved to be highly suitable for the study of the trend in BSE epidemics and was helpful in understanding the effects of management and control of the disease. Additionally, such an approach may help in the implementation of changes in BSE regulations.

  7. Temporal trend of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis incidence in southern Europe: a population study in the health district of Ferrara, Italy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Govoni, Vittorio; Cesnik, Edward; Casetta, Ilaria; Tugnoli, Valeria; Tola, Maria Rosaria; Granieri, Enrico

    2012-08-01

    Data about the temporal trend of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) incidence in southern Europe are scarce. Incidence studies on ALS have been carried out in the health district of Ferrara, Italy, since 1960s. We expanded the previous studies from 1964 to 2009. The study was prospective with a subsequent retrospective intensive survey of multiple sources of case ascertainment. All patients with a definite and probable ALS according to the original El Escorial criteria were selected. There were 130 incident cases in the years 1964-2009 giving an average annual crude incidence of 1.82 per 100,000 population (95% CI 1.53-2.17). An incidence increase during the study period was estimated in women (χ(2) test for trend = 7.19, p < 0.01) and in the elderly (χ(2) test for trend = 7.803, p < 0.01). The age-adjusted incidence was stable over time in both women (1.19 per 100,000, 95% CI 0.90-1.52) and men (1.45 per 100,000, 95% CI 0.12-1.84). The annual number of new ALS cases in the study population followed the Poisson distribution in both sexes as well as in the elderly group of the population. The present findings suggest that ALS incidence is nearly stable over time. The crude incidence increase we estimated over time among women is mainly explained by population ageing. The increasing incidence in the elderly population was likely the consequence of an increasing precision in ALS diagnosis in the elderly since the increasing attention and care over time of neurologic elderly patients that likely concern elderly women more than previous time periods rather than better case ascertainment of diagnosed patients. The present findings do not support the role of specific environmental factors in ALS pathogenesis.

  8. Is the time interval between surgery and radiotherapy important in operable nonsmall cell lung cancer? A retrospective analysis of 340 cases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wuerschmidt, Florian; Buenemann, Henry; Ehnert, Michael; Heilmann, Hans-Peter

    1997-01-01

    Purpose: To evaluate the influence of prognostic factors in postoperative radiotherapy of NSCLC with special emphasis on the time interval between surgery and start of radiotherapy. Methods and Materials: Between January 1976 and December 1993, 340 cases were treated and retrospectively analyzed meeting the following criteria: complete follow-up; complete staging information including pathological confirmation of resection status; maximum interval between surgery (SX) and radiotherapy (RT) of 12 weeks (median 36 days, range 18 to 84 days); minimum dose of 50 Gy (R0), and maximum dose of 70 Gy (R2). Two hundred thirty patients (68%) had N2 disease; 228 patients were completely resected (R0). One hundred six (31%) had adenocarcinoma, 172 (51%) squamous cell carcinoma. Results: In univariate analysis, Karnofsky performance status (90+ > 60-80%; p = 0.019 log rank), resection status stratified for nodal disease (R+ < R0; p = 0.046), and the time interval between SX and RT were of significant importance. Patients with a long interval (37 to 84 days) had higher 5-year survival rates (26%) and a median survival time (MST: 21.9 months, 95% C.I. 17.2 to 28.6 months) than patients with a short interval (18 to 36 days: 15%; 14.9 months, 13 to 19.9 months; p = 0.013). A further subgroup analysis revealed significant higher survival rates in patients with a long interval in N0/1 disease (p = 0.011) and incompletely resected NSCLC (p = 0.012). In multivariate analysis, the time interval had a p-value of 0.009 (nodal disease: p = 0.0083; KPI: p = 0.0037; sex: p = 0.035). Conclusion: Shortening the time interval between surgery and postoperative radiotherapy to less than 6 weeks even in R+ cases is not necessary. Survival of patients with a long interval between surgery and start of radiotherapy was better in this retrospective analysis as compared to patients with a short interval

  9. Incidence trends and associated factors of diabetes mellitus in Korean children and adolescents: a retrospective cohort study in Busan and Gyeongnam

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jung Hyun Lee

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available PurposeThis study investigated the incidence trends and associated factors of type 1 (T1DM and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM in children and adolescents under 15 years of age in Busan and Gyeongnam, Korea from 2001 to 2010.MethodsMedical records of newly diagnosed diabetes patients (n=328; 160 males, 168 females were collected in questionnaire form from 5 tertiary and 42 general hospitals in Busan and Gyeongnam.ResultsThe average crude incidence rate of T1DM and T2DM was 2.01/100,000 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.76-2.28 and 0.75/100,000 (95% CI, 0.60-0.92, respectively. The incidence rate ratio (IRR of T1DM was 1.31 (95% CI, 1.01-1.69, and that of T2DM was 1.97 (95% CI, 1.25-3.11 in the latter half-decade (2006 to 2010 compared to the early half-decade (2001 to 2005. There were gradually increasing incidence trends in both T1DM and T2DM over the 10-year period (P for trend: T1DM, 0.0009; T2DM, <0.0001. Age-specific IRR was highest in the 10- to 14-year-old group, regardless of diabetes type. In particular, a rapid increase in incidence of T2DM occurred in the 10- to 14-year-old group. IRR for females was 1.07 (95% CI, 0.83-1.38 for T1DM and 1.56 (95% CI, 1.01-2.41 for T2DM. IRR for Busan (urban was 1.41 (95% CI, 1.09-1.83 for T1DM and 1.49 (95% CI, 0.96-2.30 for T2DM.ConclusionT1DM and T2DM incidence both increased over time in youth under age 15 living in Busan and Gyeongnam; in particular, the incidence of T2DM in adolescents increased more rapidly.

  10. A 10-year retrospective study of alterative aeroallergens sensitization spectrum in urban children with allergic rhinitis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang LF

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Li-Fen Yang,1,* Liang-Ming Cai,1,* Ming Li,2,* Jin-Tao Liu,3 Zhao-Ni Wang,1 Wei-Hao Wang,4 Qin-tai Yang,4 Zhuang-Gui Chen1,5 1Department of Pediatrics Intensive Care Unit and Respiratory Medicine, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, People’s Republic of China; 2Department of Pulmonary Diseases, The First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, People’s Republic of China; 3Department of Population and Quantitative Health Science, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, OH, USA; 4Department of Otorhinolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, People’s Republic of China; 5Institution of Respiratory Diseases of Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, People’s Republic of China *These authors contributed equally to this work Objective: To investigate the alterative spectrum and trends of aeroallergens sensitization in children with allergic rhinitis (AR in Guangzhou, China in the past 10 years.Participants and methods: In this retrospective study, 4,111 children with complaints of nasal hyper-reactivity who visited the Pediatric Department and/or Otolaryngology Department from January 2007 to November 2016 were enrolled. Serum specific immunoglobulin E was measured and positive detection was made in 3,328 patients, who were, therefore, diagnosed with AR. Positive rates and trends of different aeroallergens sensitization were assessed. The tendency of positive rates changing over the years, and the difference and trends in positive rate of aeroallergen sensitization that occurred in subgroups of gender, age, and season were determined and analyzed with logistic regression.Results: The percentage of detected common aeroallergens in AR children was (from high to low 81.07%, 34.44%, 14.72%, 11.81%, 6.04%, and 3.70% for house dust mites (HDMs, cat–dog dander, cockroach, mold mixture, tree pollen mixture, and herb pollen mixture

  11. Leprosy trends at a tertiary care hospital in Mumbai, India, from 2008 to 2015.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muthuvel, Thirumugam; Isaakidis, Petros; Shewade, Hemant Deepak; Kattuppara, Lucy; Singh, Rajbir; Govindarajulu, Srinivas

    2016-01-01

    Leprosy remains an important cause of preventable disabilities. After the advent of multidrug therapy, new leprosy cases have come down dramatically. Despite this achievement, India, which contributes 60% of the global leprosy burden, faces some challenges to eliminate the disease, including active transmission in the community and delayed diagnosis of leprosy patients. The objectives of the study were 1) to determine sociodemographic and clinical characteristics of newly diagnosed adults and children (less than 15 years) with leprosy and their trends over time (2008-2015) and 2) to describe the profile of surgical procedures among leprosy patients registered for reconstructive surgeries during 2006-2015. Retrospective descriptive study was conducted involving a record review of new patients with leprosy registered in Vimala Dermatological Centre, Mumbai. A total of 578 new leprosy cases were registered in the hospital during 2008-2015. There has been a steady increase in the trend of child cases (less than 15 years) registered in the facility (from 3% in 2008 to 18% in 2015), x 2 =12.11, p< 0.01. The majority of the patients (68%) were migrants of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. Targeting children and migrants and ensuring early diagnosis and treatment initiation are essential components for leprosy elimination in an urban metropolis in India.

  12. Trends in motor neuron disease: association with latitude and air lead levels in Spain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santurtún, Ana; Villar, Alejandro; Delgado-Alvarado, Manuel; Riancho, Javier

    2016-08-01

    Motor neuron diseases (MND) are a group of disorders characterized by motor neuron degeneration. Among them, amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is by far the most common in adulthood. This paper assesses the trend and geographical pattern in MND incidence in Spain and the possible air lead levels effect on this pathology. To confirm this concept, we performed a retrospective analysis of the deaths due to MND in Spain during 2000 and 2013, determined the geographical differences, and explored the relationship between MND and the air levels of lead. Overall, between 2000 and 2013, 11,355 people died in Spain because of MND. Disease mortality significantly increased in recent years (2007-2013) when compared with the first time of the period. Spearman's rank correlation coefficient also showed a statistically significant positive trend (CC = 0.824, p = 0.0002). Among people over 65 years, mortality rates were higher in Northern provinces. Moreover, we found a significant association of MND mortality with higher air lead levels (CC = 0.457, p = 0.01). Our study confirms that MND mortality is increasing in Spain, with a significant latitude gradient, which suggests an important role of environmental exposures. This ecological study suggests that air lead levels may be implicated in ALS pathogenesis.

  13. Global Times once Again: Representative Democracy and Countervailing Trends in Iberoamerica

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis Roniger

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available In the late 1990s and early 2000s democratic expectations were replaced by the discredit of democracy. Analyzing this trend, this study looks at the interplay of politics and the economic realm. It discusses the fragility and persistence of democracy and identifies the effect of recent macro-economic policies, the weakening of public goods, processes of dualization in forms of participation in the public domain. It also analyzes contrasting political trends, which involve some innovative projects institutionalizing democratic controls, but also new forms of populism and clientelism buttressed by poverty, unemployment and violence which reinforce the logic of exclusion. Finally, it suggests rethinking the public realm as a focus for the re-creation of sociability and a shared sense of future by improving public performance and efficacy, safeguarding public goods and thus promoting democratic sustainability in Iberoamerica.

  14. FASHION TREND FOR A SILHOUETTE: BALENCIAGA CASE

    OpenAIRE

    ERTÜRK, Nilay; özüdoğru, şakir

    2014-01-01

    Fashion, in broad and accepted definition, is any temporary preference or a temporary new thing in any area of human life, which prevails for a certain period of time. The issue of how fashionable products would look like in a particular season is discussed under the concept of fashion trends. The main purpose of this study is to discuss the concept of fashion trends and the studies on predictions in fashion trends, to conduct a sample trend survey for a silhouette and observe whether or not ...

  15. Trends in Alabama teen driving death and injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monroe, Kathy; Irons, Elizabeth; Crew, Marie; Norris, Jesse; Nichols, Michele; King, William D

    2014-09-01

    Motor vehicle crashes (MVCs) are a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in teens. Alabama has been in the Top 5 states for MVC fatality rate among teens in the United States for several years. Twelve years of teen MVC deaths and injuries were evaluated. Our hypothesis is that the teen driving motor vehicle-related deaths and injuries have decreased related to legislative and community awareness activities. A retrospective analysis of Alabama teen MVC deaths and injury for the years 2000 to 2011 was conducted. MVC data were obtained from a Fatality Analysis Reporting System data set managed by the Center for Advanced Public Safety at the University of Alabama. A Lowess regression-scattergram analysis was used to identify period specific changes in deaths and injury over time. Statistical analysis was conducted using True Epistat 5.0 software. When the Lowess regression was applied, there was an obvious change in the trend line in 2007. To test that observation, we then compared medians in the pre-2007 and post-2007 periods, which validated our observation. Moreover, it provided a near-even number of observations for comparison. The Spearman rank correlation was used to test for correlation of deaths and injury over time. The Mann-Whitney U-test was used to evaluate median differences in deaths and injury comparing pre-2007 and post-2007 data. Alabama teen MVC deaths and injury demonstrated a significant negative correlation over the 12-year period (Rs for deaths and injury, -0.87 [p teen driver deaths and injury have decreased during the 12-year study period, most notably after 2006. Factors that may have contributed to this trend may include stricter laws for teen drivers (enacted in 2002 and updated in 2010), less teen driving because of a nationwide economic downturn, delayed licensing in teens, steady improvements in overall seat belt use, and heightened public awareness of risky behaviors in teen driving.

  16. Uncovering the Problem-Solving Process: Cued Retrospective Reporting Versus Concurrent and Retrospective Reporting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Gog, Tamara; Paas, Fred; Van Merriënboer, Jeroen; Witte, P.

    2007-01-01

    This study investigated the amounts of problem-solving process information ("action," "why," "how," and "metacognitive") elicited by means of concurrent, retrospective, and cued retrospective reporting. In a within-participants design, 26 participants completed electrical circuit troubleshooting

  17. Trend analysis in the nuclear maintenance industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruemeli, W.A.

    1986-01-01

    The maintenance of nuclear facilities is a demanding, ongoing activity which requires the same level of quality as new construction. Heretofore, many owners and contractors have relied on ''gut feel'' to determine whether maintenance quality was improving or not. However, trend analysis now is becoming a key factor in monitoring plant activities to ensure quality. Literature abounds with descriptions of computerized systems for collecting and sorting data. Even the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has concurred, with its endorsement of trend analysis of construction indicators in NUREG 1055 (Ford Amendment Study). Stearns Catalytic has developed a unique system of tend analyses for nuclear plant activities. Aside from its intended purpose of determining the quality trends in maintenance activities, the program also supplies substantial quantitative data for control and management of the quality activities. Trend analysis is a time series analysis of a set of observations arranged in chronological order. The important aspect is the time basis, specifically the analysis of quality indicators over successive periods of time. Many program elements, including surveillances, nonconformances, inspections, and audits, are designed to look at quality indications

  18. Current Trends in Neonatal Tracheostomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isaiah, Amal; Moyer, Kelly; Pereira, Kevin D

    2016-08-01

    The indications for neonatal tracheostomy may have changed with current noninvasive respiratory therapies compared with previous decades. To study the current trends in neonatal tracheostomy and identify the primary indication for the procedure and risk factors for failed extubation. This retrospective medical record review included 47 neonates who underwent tracheostomy from January 1, 2009, to December 31, 2013, at the University of Maryland Children's Hospital. Group 1 included infants undergoing tracheostomy for the primary indication of upper airway obstruction; group 2, infants with primary pulmonary disease. Data on weight, gestational age, comorbid conditions, congenital abnormalities, complications, outcomes, and indications for tracheostomy were compared statistically between groups. Differences in gestational age, birth weight, and age at tracheostomy. Among the 47 infants included in the study (30 boys; 17 girls, mean [SD] age, 113 [73] days), 31 (66%) demonstrated anatomical causes of airway obstruction, and 16 (34%) had significant pulmonary disease. Among infants with anatomical causes, subglottic stenosis represented the largest group (11 of 31 [35%]). The mean age at the time of tracheostomy was significantly lower in the group with airway obstruction (98.9 vs 146.9 days; difference, 48 [95% CI, 4.8-91.2] days; P = .04). No procedure-related morbidity or mortality was encountered. Anatomical upper airway obstruction may be returning as the most common indication for a neonatal tracheostomy, thereby supporting the belief that current respiratory therapies have lowered the burden of chronic lung disease and the need for prolonged ventilatory care.

  19. Retrospective analysis of bottlenose dolphin foraging: a legacy of anthropogenic ecosystem disturbance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rossman, Sam; Barros, Nélio B.; Ostrom, Peggy H.; Stricker, Craig A.; Hohn, Aleta A.; Gandhi, Hasand; Wells, Randall S.

    2013-01-01

    We used stable isotope analysis to investigate the foraging ecology of coastal bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) in relation to a series of anthropogenic disturbances. We first demonstrated that stable isotopes are a faithful indicator of habitat use by comparing muscle isotope values to behavioral foraging data from the same individuals. δ13C values increased, while δ34S and δ15N values decreased with the percentage of feeding observations in seagrass habitat. We then utilized stable isotope values of muscle to assess temporal variation in foraging habitat from 1991 to 2010 and collagen from tooth crown tips to assess the time period 1944 to 2007. From 1991 to 2010, δ13C values of muscle decreased while δ34S values increased indicating reduced utilization of seagrass habitat. From 1944 to 1989 δ13C values of the crown tip declined significantly, likely due to a reduction in the coverage of seagrass habitat and δ15N values significantly increased, a trend we attribute to nutrient loading from a rapidly increasing human population. Our results demonstrate the utility of using marine mammal foraging habits to retrospectively assess the extent to which anthropogenic disturbance impacts coastal food webs.

  20. Recent trends in the timing of first sex and marriage among young women in Ethiopia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reda, A Alex; Lindstrom, David

    2014-07-01

    Ethiopia has been characterized by high population growth. Recent social and economic developments have the potential to alter reproductive patterns in the country. Some of these developments include sustained economic growth, urbanization, rapid growth in school enrollments, expansion of primary health care, and a rise in contraceptive access and use. In other national contexts, these developments have been associated with a gradual decoupling of the transition into sexual activity and marriage among young women. We investigate recent trends in the transition into first sex and marriage among three cohorts of Ethiopian women. Using data from the 2000, 2005, and 2011 Ethiopia Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) we estimate survival curves and discrete-time hazards models to examine recent trends in age at first sex and first marriage among women ages 20-29. Across the three survey years the median age at first sex has remained relatively stable at 17 years, although the median age at marriage has increased from 17 to 18 years between the 2005 and 2011 surveys. Net of the effects of education and place of residence, there is evidence of a slight trend away from premarital first sex to sexual initiation in the context of marriage. However, among the most educated women and women living in urban areas (who are a small minority of women), there is a much greater tendency to initiate sexual activity outside of marriage compared to women with little schooling and women living in rural areas, and once they have begun sexual activity they tend to wait longer before they get married. We also find evidence in the most recent survey that women who have first sexual intercourse before marriage are delaying marriage more than was the case among earlier cohorts.

  1. Nationwide time trends and risk factors for in-hospital falls-related major injuries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jorgensen, T. S. H.; Hansen, A. H.; Sahlberg, M.

    2015-01-01

    BackgroundAccidental falls during hospitalisation have a range of complications and more information is needed to improve prevention. We investigated patterns of in-hospital fall-related major injuries in the period 2000-2012 and the association between chronic conditions and in-hospital fall......-related major injuries. MethodsUsing administrative databases, patients aged 65+ years with in-hospital falls causing fractures or head injuries with need for surgery or intensive observation were identified as cases and were individually matched with five controls. Joinpoint regression was used to examine time...... trends and conditional logistic regression was used to analyse odds ratio (OR) for in-hospital falls-related major injuries according to a range of comorbidities. ResultsFour thousand seven hundred and fifty-four cases were identified from 2000 to 2012 and the most common injury was femur fracture (61...

  2. Measuring trends in poverty over time - some robust results for Ireland 1980-87

    OpenAIRE

    Nolan, B; Callan, T

    1989-01-01

    The trend in poverty in Ireland between 1980 and 1987 is analysed, using the 1980 Household Budget Survey and the ESRI 1987 Survey of Income, Distribution, Poverty and Usage of State Services. In addition to the number falling below poverty thresholds, more sophisticated aggregate poverty measures are derived, taking into account the extent to which the poor fall below the poverty line and the distribution of income among the poor. Results for the trend in poverty which are robust over a rang...

  3. Using a time-series statistical framework to quantify trends and abrupt change in US corn, soybean, and wheat yields from 1970-2016

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, J.; Ives, A. R.; Turner, M. G.; Kucharik, C. J.

    2017-12-01

    Previous studies have identified global agricultural regions where "stagnation" of long-term crop yield increases has occurred. These studies have used a variety of simple statistical methods that often ignore important aspects of time series regression modeling. These methods can lead to differing and contradictory results, which creates uncertainty regarding food security given rapid global population growth. Here, we present a new statistical framework incorporating time series-based algorithms into standard regression models to quantify spatiotemporal yield trends of US maize, soybean, and winter wheat from 1970-2016. Our primary goal was to quantify spatial differences in yield trends for these three crops using USDA county level data. This information was used to identify regions experiencing the largest changes in the rate of yield increases over time, and to determine whether abrupt shifts in the rate of yield increases have occurred. Although crop yields continue to increase in most maize-, soybean-, and winter wheat-growing areas, yield increases have stagnated in some key agricultural regions during the most recent 15 to 16 years: some maize-growing areas, except for the northern Great Plains, have shown a significant trend towards smaller annual yield increases for maize; soybean has maintained an consistent long-term yield gains in the Northern Great Plains, the Midwest, and southeast US, but has experienced a shift to smaller annual increases in other regions; winter wheat maintained a moderate annual increase in eastern South Dakota and eastern US locations, but showed a decline in the magnitude of annual increases across the central Great Plains and western US regions. Our results suggest that there were abrupt shifts in the rate of annual yield increases in a variety of US regions among the three crops. The framework presented here can be broadly applied to additional yield trend analyses for different crops and regions of the Earth.

  4. Recent population trends of mountain goats in the Olympic Mountains, Washington

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenkins, Kurt J.; Happe, Patricia J.; Beirne, Katherine F.; Hoffman, Roger A.; Griffin, Paul C.; Baccus, William T.; Fieberg, John

    2012-01-01

    Mountain goats (Oreamnos americanus) were introduced in Washington's Olympic Mountains during the 1920s. The population subsequently increased in numbers and expanded in range, leading to concerns by the 1970s over the potential effects of non-native mountain goats on high-elevation plant communities in Olympic National Park. The National Park Service (NPS) transplanted mountain goats from the Olympic Mountains to other ranges between 1981 and 1989 as a means to manage overabundant populations, and began monitoring population trends of mountain goats in 1983. We estimated population abundance of mountain goats during 18–25 July 2011, the sixth survey of the time series, to assess current population status and responses of the population to past management. We surveyed 39 sample units, comprising 39% of the 59,615-ha survey area. We estimated a population of 344 ± 72 (90% confidence interval [CI]) mountain goats in the survey area. Retrospective analysis of the 2004 survey, accounting for differences in survey area boundaries and methods of estimating aerial detection biases, indicated that the population increased at an average annual rate of 4.9% since the last survey. That is the first population growth observed since the cessation of population control measures in 1990. We postulate that differences in population trends observed in western, eastern, and southern sections of the survey zone reflected, in part, a variable influence of climate change across the precipitation gradient in the Olympic Mountains.

  5. Water-quality trends in the nation’s rivers and streams, 1972–2012—Data preparation, statistical methods, and trend results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oelsner, Gretchen P.; Sprague, Lori A.; Murphy, Jennifer C.; Zuellig, Robert E.; Johnson, Henry M.; Ryberg, Karen R.; Falcone, James A.; Stets, Edward G.; Vecchia, Aldo V.; Riskin, Melissa L.; De Cicco, Laura A.; Mills, Taylor J.; Farmer, William H.

    2017-04-04

    Since passage of the Clean Water Act in 1972, Federal, State, and local governments have invested billions of dollars to reduce pollution entering rivers and streams. To understand the return on these investments and to effectively manage and protect the Nation’s water resources in the future, we need to know how and why water quality has been changing over time. As part of the National Water-Quality Assessment Project, of the U.S. Geological Survey’s National Water-Quality Program, data from the U.S. Geological Survey, along with multiple other Federal, State, Tribal, regional, and local agencies, have been used to support the most comprehensive assessment conducted to date of surface-water-quality trends in the United States. This report documents the methods used to determine trends in water quality and ecology because these methods are vital to ensuring the quality of the results. Specific objectives are to document (1) the data compilation and processing steps used to identify river and stream sites throughout the Nation suitable for water-quality, pesticide, and ecology trend analysis, (2) the statistical methods used to determine trends in target parameters, (3) considerations for water-quality, pesticide, and ecology data and streamflow data when modeling trends, (4) sensitivity analyses for selecting data and interpreting trend results with the Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season method, and (5) the final trend results at each site. The scope of this study includes trends in water-quality concentrations and loads (nutrient, sediment, major ion, salinity, and carbon), pesticide concentrations and loads, and metrics for aquatic ecology (fish, invertebrates, and algae) for four time periods: (1) 1972–2012, (2) 1982–2012, (3) 1992–2012, and (4) 2002–12. In total, nearly 12,000 trends in concentration, load, and ecology metrics were evaluated in this study; there were 11,893 combinations of sites, parameters, and trend periods. The

  6. MRSA Incidence and Antibiotic Trends in Urban Hand Infections: A 10-Year Longitudinal Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kistler, Justin M; Thoder, Joseph J; Ilyas, Asif M

    2018-01-01

    Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) is the most reported pathogen in hand infections at urban medical centers throughout the country. Antibiotic sensitivity trends are not well known. The purposes of this study were to examine and determine the drug resistance trends for MRSA infections of the hand and to provide recommendations for empiric antibiotic treatment based on sensitivity profiles. A 10-year longitudinal, retrospective chart review was performed on all culture-positive hand infections encountered at a single urban medical center from 2005 to 2014. The proportions of all organisms were calculated for each year and collectively. MRSA infections were additionally subanalyzed for antibiotic sensitivity. A total of 815 culture-positive hand infections were identified. Overall, MRSA grew on culture in 46% of cases. A trend toward decreasing annual MRSA incidence was noted over the 10-year study period. There was a steady increase in polymicrobial infections during the same time. Resistance to clindamycin increased steadily during the 10-year study, starting at 4% in 2008 but growing to 31% by 2014. Similarly, levofloxacin resistance consistently increased throughout the study, reaching its peak at 56% in 2014. The annual incidence of MRSA in hand infections has declined overall but remains the most common pathogen. There has been an alternative increase in the number of polymicrobial infections. MRSA resistance to clindamycin and levofloxacin consistently increased during the study period. Empiric antibiotic therapy for hand infections should not only avoid penicillin and other beta-lactams but should also consider avoiding clindamycin and levofloxacin for empiric treatment.

  7. Braille use among Norwegian children from 1967 to 2007: trends in the underlying causes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Augestad, Liv Berit; Klingenberg, Oliv; Fosse, Per

    2012-08-01

    The aim of the study was to estimate the occurrence, diagnoses and time trends among Norwegian children that have received education in braille from 1967 to 2007. We used a retrospective population-based study design. The health care system is free for all inhabitants in Norway. We included all children that had received braille education the last four decades. From each student's record, we abstracted year born, country of birth, gender, year diagnosed, diagnosis, classification of visual impairment and type of reading media. We identified 287 children (137 girls and 150 boys) that had received braille education over the last 40 years. Of these, 262 (91.3%) children were born in Norway, 145 (53.7%) were diagnosed within the first year of life and 59 (20.6%) from age of one to five. The most frequent diagnoses were Retinopathy of Prematurity (ROP), Juvenile Ceroid Lipofuscinoses (JNCL), Lebers Congenital Amaurosis (LCA) and Retinitis Pigmentosa (RP). Among the children, 63% (N = 170) used braille only, 9% (N = 25) braille and print, but priority braille, and 27% (N = 73) braille and print, priority print. The number of children with ROP using braille had a peak in 1977, then the number declined. The number diagnosed with LCA increased from 1987 to 1992. The number of braille users among children diagnosed with JNCL tended to increase substantially after 1992. Braille education seemed to be dependent of trends in diagnoses as well as trends in recommendations from professional educators. © 2011 The Authors. Acta Ophthalmologica © 2011 Acta Ophthalmologica Scandinavica Foundation.

  8. Annual Trends in Follow-Up Visits for Pediatric Concussion in Emergency Departments and Physicians' Offices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fridman, Liraz; Scolnik, Michal; Macpherson, Alison; Rothman, Linda; Guttmann, Astrid; Grool, Anne M; Rodriguez Duque, Daniel; Zemek, Roger L

    2018-01-01

    To assess whether children and youth with concussion receive follow-up visits in accordance with the recommended guidelines. We conducted a retrospective, population-based study using linked health administrative data from all concussion-related visits to emergency department and physician offices by children aged 5 through 18 years (range, 5.00-18.99) in Ontario between 2003 and 2013. We analyzed the percentage of children and youth seen for follow-up. The Mann-Kendall test for trends was used to assess a monotonic increasing trend over time in concussion follow-up visits. A total of 126 654 children and youth were evaluated for an index concussion visit. The number of children and youth assessed for concussion follow-up (N = 45 155) has increased significantly over time (P < .001). In 2003, 781 of 7126 patients (11.0%; 95% CI, 10.3-11.7) with an index visit for concussion had a follow-up assessment. By 2013, 6526 of 21 681 (30.1%; 95% CI, 29.5-30.7) patients received follow-up care. The proportion of children and youth receiving follow-up after an acute concussion has significantly increased between 2003 and 2013. Nevertheless, more than two-thirds of all patients do not seek medical follow-up or clearance as recommended by current concussion guidelines, suggesting that ongoing efforts to improve and monitor compliance with recommended guidelines by patients and physicians are important. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Radioactive contamination in Norwegian fish and seafood 1960-2013: time trends and geographical trends

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heldal, Hilde Elise; Svaeren, Ingrid; Liebig, Penny Lee [Institute of Marine Research, P. O. Box 1870 Nordnes, N-5817 Bergen (Norway); Brungot, Anne Lene; Gaefvert, Torbjoern; Rudjord, Anne Liv [Norwegian Radiation Protection Authority, P.O. Box 55, N-1332 Oesteraas (Norway); Gwynn, Justin [Norwegian Radiation Protection Authority, The Fram Centre, N-9296 Tromsoe (Norway)

    2014-07-01

    Barents Sea in 2012). However, time trends and geographical trends are clearly evident in the datasets. For example, the impact of fallout from the Chernobyl accident could be observed, particularly in samples collected in coastal areas and the Kattegat/Skagerrak and the North Sea. In recent decades there has been a slow decrease in the activity concentrations of most anthropogenic radionuclides in fish and seafood as a result of decreasing discharges from European reprocessing plants for spent nuclear fuel and the reduced impact of fallout from the Chernobyl accident. In the case of {sup 99}Tc however, activity concentrations in seawater and certain biota increased to peak values around 2000 as a result of increased discharges from Sellafield (UK) in the 1990's. In open sea areas, the activity concentrations of {sup 137}Cs in fish and seafood have been highest in the Skagerrak and the North Sea due to the proximity to the reprocessing plants at Sellafield and Cap la Hague (France) and outflowing Chernobyl-contaminated seawater from the Baltic Sea. Activity concentrations of {sup 137}Cs in fish and seafood collected in fjords in mid-Norway are up to an order of magnitude higher than in the open sea areas due to terrestrial run-off from Chernobyl fallout in Norway. (authors)

  10. Estimating the Competitive Storage Model with Trending Commodity Prices

    OpenAIRE

    Gouel , Christophe; LEGRAND , Nicolas

    2017-01-01

    We present a method to estimate jointly the parameters of a standard commodity storage model and the parameters characterizing the trend in commodity prices. This procedure allows the influence of a possible trend to be removed without restricting the model specification, and allows model and trend selection based on statistical criteria. The trend is modeled deterministically using linear or cubic spline functions of time. The results show that storage models with trend are always preferred ...

  11. A retrospective analysis of acute organophosphorus poisoning ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A retrospective analysis of acute organophosphorus poisoning cases admitted to the tertiary care teaching hospital in South India. ... Young adult males were more commonly involved than females (M:F 2.5:1). The mean age of the patients was 28 years (range 2-72 years, SD ± 14.3 years). Mean time to receive treatment ...

  12. PATMOS-x Cloud Climate Record Trend Sensitivity to Reanalysis Products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael J. Foster

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Continuous satellite-derived cloud records now extend over three decades, and are increasingly used for climate applications. Certain applications, such as trend detection, require a clear understanding of uncertainty as it relates to establishing statistical significance. The use of reanalysis products as sources of ancillary data could be construed as one such source of uncertainty, as there has been discussion regarding the suitability of reanalysis products for trend detection. Here we use three reanalysis products: Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR, Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA and European Center for Medium range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF ERA-Interim (ERA-I as sources of ancillary data for the Pathfinder Atmospheres Extended/Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (PATMOS-x/AVHRR Satellite Cloud Climate Data Record (CDR, and perform inter-comparisons to determine how sensitive the climatology is to choice of ancillary data source. We find differences among reanalysis fields required for PATMOS-x processing, which translate to small but not insignificant differences in retrievals of cloud fraction, cloud top height and cloud optical depth. The retrieval variability due to choice of reanalysis product is on the order of one third the size of the retrieval uncertainty, making it a potentially significant factor in trend detection. Cloud fraction trends were impacted the most by choice of reanalysis while cloud optical depth trends were impacted the least. Metrics used to determine the skill of the reanalysis products for use as ancillary data found no clear best choice for use in PATMOS-x. We conclude use of reanalysis products as ancillary data in the PATMOS-x/AVHRR Cloud CDR do not preclude its use for trend detection, but for that application uncertainty in reanalysis fields should be better represented in the PATMOS-x retrieval uncertainty.

  13. The Effect of the Great Moderation on the U.S. Business Cycle in a Time-varying Multivariate Trend-cycle Model

    OpenAIRE

    Drew Creal; Siem Jan Koopman; Eric Zivot

    2008-01-01

    In this paper we investigate whether the dynamic properties of the U.S. business cycle have changed in the last fifty years. For this purpose we develop a flexible business cycle indicator that is constructed from a moderate set of macroeconomic time series. The coincident economic indicator is based on a multivariate trend-cycle decomposition model that accounts for time variation in macroeconomic volatility, known as the great moderation. In particular, we consider an unobserved components ...

  14. Prestudy - Development of trend analysis of component failure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poern, K.

    1995-04-01

    The Bayesian trend analysis model that has been used for the computation of initiating event intensities (I-book) is based on the number of events that have occurred during consecutive time intervals. The model itself is a Poisson process with time-dependent intensity. For the analysis of aging it is often more relevant to use times between failures for a given component as input, where by 'time' is meant a quantity that best characterizes the age of the component (calendar time, operating time, number of activations etc). Therefore, it has been considered necessary to extend the model and the computer code to allow trend analysis of times between events, and also of several sequences of times between events. This report describes this model extension as well as an application on an introductory ageing analysis of centrifugal pumps defined in Table 5 of the T-book. The application in turn directs the attention to the need for further development of both the trend model and the data base. Figs

  15. Trends in leisure time and occupational physical activity in the Madrid region, 1995-2008.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meseguer, Carmen M; Galán, Iñaki; Herruzo, Rafael; Rodríguez-Artalejo, Fernando

    2011-01-01

    Information on trends in physical activity is very scarce in Mediterranean countries, which have the highest sedentariness in Europe. This study describes recent trends in leisure time physical activity (LTPA) and at work in the Madrid region. The data were taken from representative annual surveys of population aged 18-64 years, between 1995-2008, 28,084 people participated. We calculated total energy, quantified in metabolic equivalent (MET-1 h per week), spent on LTPA and on light LTPA (6 MET). The annual change in LTPA was estimated by linear regression, and occupational activity by logistic regression, adjusting for age, gender and educational level. The total amount of LTPA in MET-1 h per week declined by 19.8% (Pgenders, all age groups and educational levels, except for those with the lowest level of education. The adjusted annual change in MET-1 h per week was: -0.21 (Pphysical inactivity has increased in the general population (odds ratio for annual change=1.01; 95% confidence interval, 1-1.02); specially in women, young and middle aged, and intermediate educational level. There has been a decline in LTPA, mainly in light and moderate activities, accompanied by greater occupational physical inactivity. This could have contributed to the increase in obesity in the Community of Madrid between 1995-2008. Copyright © 2010 Sociedad Española de Cardiología. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

  16. Fashion and death: Trends Cycles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Flavia Jakemiu Araújo Bortolon

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Fashion is composed of cycles subpostos trends that seek to eliminate the past for a new one, which makes it ephemeral and eternal at the same time. This study investigates how is the relationship between these cycles of trends over time, through a brief history of fashion, considering the theoretical rules of Simmel, Crane and Caldas. They will still be used concepts proposed by Agamben, such as: device, in order to classify the system of the fashion; contemporaneidade, to understand the action of that factor in relation to the time and profanation, to identify the capacity to maintain in the society. It is ended that the fashion, as well as the death, renews the society, it destroys and it creates the new, as a system naturalized artificially

  17. Real-Time and Retrospective Health-Analytics-as-a-Service: A Novel Framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khazaei, Hamzeh; McGregor, Carolyn; Eklund, J Mikael; El-Khatib, Khalil

    2015-11-18

    Analytics-as-a-service (AaaS) is one of the latest provisions emerging from the cloud services family. Utilizing this paradigm of computing in health informatics will benefit patients, care providers, and governments significantly. This work is a novel approach to realize health analytics as services in critical care units in particular. To design, implement, evaluate, and deploy an extendable big-data compatible framework for health-analytics-as-a-service that offers both real-time and retrospective analysis. We present a novel framework that can realize health data analytics-as-a-service. The framework is flexible and configurable for different scenarios by utilizing the latest technologies and best practices for data acquisition, transformation, storage, analytics, knowledge extraction, and visualization. We have instantiated the proposed method, through the Artemis project, that is, a customization of the framework for live monitoring and retrospective research on premature babies and ill term infants in neonatal intensive care units (NICUs). We demonstrated the proposed framework in this paper for monitoring NICUs and refer to it as the Artemis-In-Cloud (Artemis-IC) project. A pilot of Artemis has been deployed in the SickKids hospital NICU. By infusing the output of this pilot set up to an analytical model, we predict important performance measures for the final deployment of Artemis-IC. This process can be carried out for other hospitals following the same steps with minimal effort. SickKids' NICU has 36 beds and can classify the patients generally into 5 different types including surgical and premature babies. The arrival rate is estimated as 4.5 patients per day, and the average length of stay was calculated as 16 days. Mean number of medical monitoring algorithms per patient is 9, which renders 311 live algorithms for the whole NICU running on the framework. The memory and computation power required for Artemis-IC to handle the SickKids NICU will be

  18. Real-Time and Retrospective Health-Analytics-as-a-Service: A Novel Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGregor, Carolyn; Eklund, J Mikael; El-Khatib, Khalil

    2015-01-01

    Background Analytics-as-a-service (AaaS) is one of the latest provisions emerging from the cloud services family. Utilizing this paradigm of computing in health informatics will benefit patients, care providers, and governments significantly. This work is a novel approach to realize health analytics as services in critical care units in particular. Objective To design, implement, evaluate, and deploy an extendable big-data compatible framework for health-analytics-as-a-service that offers both real-time and retrospective analysis. Methods We present a novel framework that can realize health data analytics-as-a-service. The framework is flexible and configurable for different scenarios by utilizing the latest technologies and best practices for data acquisition, transformation, storage, analytics, knowledge extraction, and visualization. We have instantiated the proposed method, through the Artemis project, that is, a customization of the framework for live monitoring and retrospective research on premature babies and ill term infants in neonatal intensive care units (NICUs). Results We demonstrated the proposed framework in this paper for monitoring NICUs and refer to it as the Artemis-In-Cloud (Artemis-IC) project. A pilot of Artemis has been deployed in the SickKids hospital NICU. By infusing the output of this pilot set up to an analytical model, we predict important performance measures for the final deployment of Artemis-IC. This process can be carried out for other hospitals following the same steps with minimal effort. SickKids’ NICU has 36 beds and can classify the patients generally into 5 different types including surgical and premature babies. The arrival rate is estimated as 4.5 patients per day, and the average length of stay was calculated as 16 days. Mean number of medical monitoring algorithms per patient is 9, which renders 311 live algorithms for the whole NICU running on the framework. The memory and computation power required for Artemis

  19. Trends into rainfall time series of two andes basins of Valle del Cauca (Colombia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Faisury Cardona-Guerrero

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available With the goal of detecting changes or trends in registered data of daily rainfall in the basins of rivers Dagua and Cali, located in the south-west of Colombia, in the Valle del Cauca, nine climate extremes indices were calculated using the RClimDex software. For this, precipitation trends were analyzed in 18 rain gauges located in the study area with historical series ranging between 21 and 56 years. Homogeneity tests were made to data to ensure consistency in the information. The results show changes in rainfall, dominated by the increasing trends for almost all indices; however most of the trends do not show high statistical significance. Also, a significant increase in the average annual total rainfall of 15.2 mm (Dagua river basin and 9.1 mm (Cali river basin in the stations located below 1500 msnm was obtained. Moreover, in the stations located at higher elevations, decreases were observed. There is a homogeneous spatial distribution for the most of the indices and similar patterns were found located in defined areas of the study zone, which may affect the runoff production in watersheds in the coming years.

  20. Sea level trends in South East Asian Seas (SEAS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strassburg, M. W.; Hamlington, B. D.; Leben, R. R.; Manurung, P.; Lumban Gaol, J.; Nababan, B.; Vignudelli, S.; Kim, K.-Y.

    2014-10-01

    Southeast Asian Seas (SEAS) span the largest archipelago in the global ocean and provide a complex oceanic pathway connecting the Pacific and Indian Oceans. The SEAS regional sea level trends are some of the highest observed in the modern satellite altimeter record that now spans almost two decades. Initial comparisons of global sea level reconstructions find that 17 year sea level trends over the past 60 years exhibit good agreement in areas and at times of strong signal to noise associated decadal variability forced by low frequency variations in Pacific trade winds. The SEAS region exhibits sea level trends that vary dramatically over the studied time period. This historical variation suggests that the strong regional sea level trends observed during the modern satellite altimeter record will abate as trade winds fluctuate on decadal and longer time scales. Furthermore, after removing the contribution of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) to sea level trends in the past twenty years, the rate of sea level rise is greatly reduced in the SEAS region. As a result of the influence of the PDO, the SEAS regional sea level trends during 2010s and 2020s are likely to be less than the global mean sea level (GMSL) trend if the observed oscillations in wind forcing and sea level persist. Nevertheless, long-term sea level trends in the SEAS will continue to be affected by GMSL rise occurring now and in the future.

  1. Trends in newspaper coverage of mental illness in Canada: 2005-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitley, Rob; Berry, Sarah

    2013-02-01

    Much research suggests that the general public relies on the popular media as a primary source of information about mental illness. We assessed the broad content of articles relating to mental illness in major Canadian newspapers over a 6-year period. We also sought to assess if such content has changed over time. We conducted a retrospective analysis of Canadian newspaper coverage from 2005 to 2010. Research assistants used a standardized guide to code 11 263 newspaper articles that mention the terms mental health, mental illness, schizophrenia, or schizophrenic. Once the articles were coded, descriptive statistics were produced for overarching themes and time trend analyses from 2005 to 2010. Danger, violence, and criminality were direct themes in 40% of newspaper articles. Treatment for a mental illness was discussed in only 19% of newspaper articles, and in only 18% was recovery or rehabilitation a significant theme. Eighty-three per cent of articles coded lacked a quotation from someone with a mental illness. We did not observe any significant changes over time from 2005 to 2010 in any domain measured. There is scope for more balanced, accurate, and informative coverage of mental health issues in Canada. Newspaper articles infrequently reflect the common realities of mental illness phenomenology, course, and outcome. Currently, clinicians may direct patients and family members to other resources for more comprehensive and accurate information about mental illness.

  2. Reduced incidence of skin cancer in patients with alopecia areata: A retrospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mostaghimi, Arash; Qureshi, Sarah; Joyce, Cara; Guo, Ye; Huang, Kathie P

    2016-04-01

    The risk of skin cancer in patients with alopecia areata (AA) is unknown. While the risk of skin cancer in chronic inflammatory alopecias may be elevated, AA shares many characteristics with vitiligo, an autoimmune illness associated with decreased risk of melanoma and non-melanoma skin cancers. In this retrospective cohort study, we determined the risk of developing skin cancer among patients with AA in a validated cohort relative to matched controls at two tertiary care hospitals in Massachusetts. There was a significantly decreased risk of NMSC in AA patients than controls (OR=0.63, 95% CI=0.48-0.81). There was a trend towards a protective effect of AA associated with melanoma (OR=0.65, 95% CI=0.39-1.09). There was no difference in anatomic distribution of skin cancer between patients with AA and controls. Our study demonstrates a decreased risk of nonmelanoma skin cancer and a trend towards reduced risk of melanoma in patients with AA. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  3. Retrospective application of Program to Access and Review Trending iNformation and Evaluate coRrelation to Symptoms in patients with Heart Failure criteria for the remote management of patients with cardiac resynchronisation therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brasca, Francesco Ma; Franzetti, Jessica; Rella, Valeria; Malfatto, Gabriella; Brambilla, Roberto; Facchini, Mario; Parati, Gianfranco; Perego, Giovanni B

    2017-05-01

    Aim The Program to Access and Review Trending iNformation and Evaluate coRrelation to Symptoms in patients with Heart Failure (PARTNERS HF) trial elaborated a multiparametric model for prediction of acute decompensation in advanced heart failure patients, based on periodical in office data download from cardiac resynchronisation devices. In this study, we evaluated the ability of the PARTNERS HF criteria to detect initial decompensation in a population of moderate heart failure patients under remote monitoring. Methods We retrospectively applied the PARTNERS HF criteria to 1860 transmissions from 104 patients (median follow up 21 months; range 1-67 months), who were enrolled in our programme of telemedicine after cardiac resynchronisation therapy. We tested the ability of a score based on these criteria to predict any acute clinical decompensation occurring in the 15 days following a transmission. Results In 441 cases, acute heart failure was diagnosed after the index transmission. The area under the curve (AUC) of the score for the diagnosis of acute decompensation was 0.752 (confidence interval (CI) 95% 0.728-0.777). The best score cut-off was consistent with the results of PARTNERS HF: with a score ≥2, sensitivity was 75% and specificity 68%. The odds ratio for events was 6.24 (CI 95% 4.90-7.95; p < 0.001). Conclusions When retrospectively applied to remote monitoring transmissions and arranged in a score, PARTNERS HF criteria could identify HF patients who subsequently developed acute decompensation. These results warrant prospective studies applying PARTNERS HF criteria to remote monitoring.

  4. Modelling BSE trend over time in Europe, a risk assessment perspective

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ducrot, C.; Sala, C.; Ru, G.; Koeijer, de A.A.; Sheridan, H.; Saegerman, C.; Selhorst, T.; Arnold, M.; Polak, M.P.; Calavas, D.

    2010-01-01

    BSE is a zoonotic disease that caused the emergence of variant Creuzfeldt-Jakob disease in the mid 1990s. The trend of the BSE epidemic in seven European countries was assessed and compared, using Age-Period-Cohort and Reproduction Ratio modelling applied to surveillance data 2001-2007. A strong

  5. Day of the week lost time occupational injury trends in the US by gender and industry and their implications for work scheduling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brogmus, G E

    2007-03-01

    While there is a growing body of research on the impact of work schedules on the risk of occupational injuries, there has been little investigation into the impact that the day of the week might have. The present research was completed to explore day of the week trends, reasons for such trends and the corresponding implications for work scheduling. Data for the number of injuries and illnesses involving days away from work (lost time; LT) in 2004 were provided by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics Office of Safety and Health Statistics. Data from the American Time Use Survey database were used to estimate work hours in 2004. From these two data sources, the rate of LT injuries and illnesses (per 200 000 work hours) by day of the week, industry sector and gender were estimated. The analysis revealed clear differences by day of the week, gender and major industry sector. Sundays had the highest rate overall--nearly 37% higher than the average of the remaining days, Monday to Saturday. Mondays had the next highest rate followed closely by Saturdays. This pattern was not the same for males and females. For males, Mondays had the highest LT rate (27% higher than the average of all other days) with all remaining days having essentially the same rate. For females, Sundays and Saturdays had much higher LT rates--122% and 60% higher, respectively, than the average weekday rate. There were also differences by industry and differences between genders by industry. The present analysis suggests that several factors may be contributing to the weekend and Monday trends observed. Lower-tenured (and younger) workers on the weekends, lower female management/supervision and second jobs on the weekend seem to be contributors to the high Saturday and Sunday LT rates. Differences in day of the week employment by industry did not account for the trends observed. Fraud and overtime also could not be confirmed as contributing to these trends. Monday trends were more complex to explain, with

  6. Interpreting time trends and biomagnification of PCBs in the Baltic region using the equilibrium lipid partitioning approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nfon, Erick; Cousins, Ian T.

    2006-01-01

    Multi-year monitoring data for PCBs in abiotic media and biota collected from the Baltic region were compiled into a database and analyzed using the equilibrium lipid partitioning (ELP) approach to study temporal trends as well as to investigate food web biomagnification. Statistically significant reductions in ELP concentrations between 1987 and 2001 were observed in guillemots, air, and some fish species and a general, but not always statistically significant decline in concentrations was observed throughout the Baltic ecosystem. Estimated clearance half-lives ranged from 2.7-10.7 years. The database contained concentrations for a range of different Baltic species, which comprise a well-known Baltic food web. It was possible to derive the trophic position of the species in this food web and relate them to ELP concentrations. A significant positive correlation between ELP concentrations and trophic position was obtained. Estimated food web magnification factors ranged between 1.9 and 5.1 for selected congeners. - The equilibrium lipid partitioning approach is applied to a large Baltic database of PCB concentrations in abiotic and biota media to investigate time trends and biomagnification

  7. Variation Trend Analysis of Runoff and Sediment Time Series Based on the R/S Analysis of Simulated Loess Tilled Slopes in the Loess Plateau, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ju Zhang

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study was to illustrate the temporal variation of runoff and sediment of loess tilled slopes under successive rainfall conditions. Loess tilled slopes with four microtopography types (straight cultivated slope, artificial backhoe, artificial digging, and contour tillage under five slope gradients (5°, 10°, 15°, 20°, 25° were simulated and a rainfall intensity of 60 mm/h was adopted. The temporal trends of runoff and sediment yield were predicted based on the Rescaled Range (R/S analysis method. The results indicate that the Hurst indices of runoff time series and sediment time series are higher than 0.5, and a long-term positive correlation exists between the future and the past. This means that runoff and sediment of loess tilled slopes in the future will have the same trends as in the past. The results obtained by the classical R/S analysis method were the same as those of the modified R/S analysis method. The rationality and reliability of the R/S analysis method were further identified and the method can be used for predicting the trend of runoff and sediment yield. The correlation between the microtopography and the Hurst indices of the runoff and sediment yield time series, as well as between the slopes and the Hurst indices, were tested, and the result was that there was no significant correlation between them. The microtopography and slopes cannot affect the correlation and continuity of runoff and sediment yield time series. This study provides an effective method for predicting variations in the trends of runoff and sediment yield on loess tilled slopes.

  8. De Novo Heart Failure After Kidney Transplantation: Trends in Incidence and Outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lenihan, Colin R; Liu, Sai; Deswal, Anita; Montez-Rath, Maria E; Winkelmayer, Wolfgang C

    2018-03-29

    Heart failure is an important cause of morbidity and mortality following kidney transplantation. Some studies in the general population have shown that the incidence of heart failure has decreased during the past 20 years. However, it is not currently known whether such a trend exists in the kidney transplantation population. Retrospective observational cohort study. Adult patients included in the US Renal Data System who underwent their first kidney transplantation in the United States between 1998 and 2010 with at least 6 months of continuous Medicare parts A and B coverage before transplantation and no prior evidence for a diagnosis of heart failure before kidney transplantation. Calendar year of transplantation and calendar year of posttransplantation heart failure diagnosis. De novo posttransplantation heart failure defined using International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision diagnosis codes and mortality following de novo posttransplantation heart failure diagnosis. Secular trends in de novo post-kidney transplantation heart failure were examined using Cox proportional hazards analysis. Within a study cohort of 48,771 patients, 7,269 developed de novo heart failure within 3 years of kidney transplantation, with a median time to heart failure of 0.76 years. The adjusted HR for heart failure with death as competing risk comparing patients who underwent transplantation in 2010 with those who underwent transplantation in 1998 was 0.69 (95% CI, 0.60-0.79). No temporal trend in mortality following a diagnosis of post-kidney transplantation heart failure was observed. Potential residual confounding from either incorrectly ascertained or unavailable confounders. The cohort was limited to Medicare beneficiaries. Adjusted for demographic and clinical characteristics, the risk for developing de novo post-kidney transplantation heart failure has declined significantly between 1998 and 2010, with no apparent change in subsequent mortality. Copyright © 2018

  9. Trends in oral anti-osteoporosis drug prescription in the United Kingdom between 1990 and 2012 : Variation by age, sex, geographic location and ethnicity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Velde, R Y; Wyers, C E; Teesselink, E; Geusens, P P M M; van den Bergh, J P W; de Vries, F; Cooper, C; Harvey, N C; van Staa, T P

    INTRODUCTION: Given the expected increase in the number of patients with osteoporosis and fragility fractures it is important to have concise information on trends in prescription rates of anti-osteoporosis drugs (AOD). METHODS: We undertook a retrospective observational study using the UK Clinical

  10. A retrospective investigation of energy efficiency standards: policies may have accelerated long term declines in appliance costs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Buskirk, R D; Kantner, C L S; Gerke, B F; Chu, S

    2014-01-01

    We perform a retrospective investigation of multi-decade trends in price and life-cycle cost (LCC) for home appliances in periods with and without energy efficiency (EE) standards and labeling polices. In contrast to the classical picture of the impact of efficiency standards, the introduction and updating of appliance standards is not associated with a long-term increase in purchase price; rather, quality-adjusted prices undergo a continued or accelerated long-term decline. In addition, long term trends in appliance LCCs—which include operating costs—consistently show an accelerated long term decline with EE policies. We also show that the incremental price of efficiency improvements has declined faster than the baseline product price for selected products. These observations are inconsistent with a view of EE standards that supposes a perfectly competitive market with static supply costs. These results suggest that EE policies may be associated with other forces at play, such as innovation and learning-by-doing in appliance production and design, that can affect long term trends in quality-adjusted prices and LCCs. (letter)

  11. Trends in the oncological incidence and mortality rates in Buhovo, Dolni Bogrov, Gorni Bogrov - regions with radio ecological problems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yagova, A.; Chobanova, N.; Bajrakova, A.

    2001-01-01

    A retrospective study is carried out to analyze the incidence and mortality trends of some malignant neoplasms in regions at relatively high radioecological risk near former uranium sites (Buhovo, Dolni Bogrov, Gorni Bogrov). Information sources are official medical statistics data, original records and database of the Oncological Dispensary in Sofia. A package of statistical programs SPSS, version 7.5, is used for the statistical analysis. The analysis didn't confirm the increase of incidence /mortality rate trends of radiation-related diseases in these regions in comparison with the same indices for the country within that period. (author)

  12. The prognostic value of time parameters in adjuvant radiotherapy of head and neck cancer. A retrospective analysis of 138 patients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dietl, B.; Schaefer, C.; Koelbl, O.

    2005-01-01

    Purpose: to answer the question, how the parameters waiting time, radiation treatment time and overall treatment time (OTT) influenced the endpoints overall (OS), event-free (EFS) and local recurrence-free survival (LRFS) in patients with locally advanced head-and-neck cancer, who had received postoperative radiotherapy. Patients and methods: 138 patients were included into a retrospective analysis from 10/1993 to 05/2000. Besides the time parameters waiting time, radiation treatment time and OTT, tumor- and therapy-related parameters (T-, N-, R-status, grading, tumor site, surgical technique, and postoperative hemoglobin < 12 g/dl) with potential impact on the endpoints were investigated in the univariate analysis (Kaplan-Meier log-rank test). Individual parameters with a significant impact (p = 0.05) were subjected to a multivariate Cox regression analysis. Results: besides a postoperative hemoglobin value < 12 g/dl, in the univariate analysis an OTT ≥ 105 days negatively influenced all endpoints, as well as a radiation treatment time ≥ 60 days. On multivariate Cox regression analysis, postoperative hemoglobin < 12 g/dl and an OTT ≥ 105 days were identified as independent negative prognostic factors for all endpoints. Conclusion: the waiting time should be managed according to the ASARA (as short as reasonably achievable) recommendation, radiation treatment should not be protracted exceeding an overall treatment of 105 days. Generally, time parameters should be routinely included in the standard tumor documentation, thus facilitating further evaluation of these prognostically relevant factors. (orig.)

  13. Trends in clinical characteristics and outcomes of Pre-ART care at a large HIV clinic in Nairobi, Kenya: a retrospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mecha, Jared O; Kubo, Elizabeth N; Nganga, Lucy W; Muiruri, Peter N; Njagi, Lilian N; Mutisya, Immaculate N; Odionyi, Justine J; Ilovi, Syokau C; Wambui, Mary; Githu, Christopher; Ngethe, Richard; Obimbo, Elizabeth M; Ngumi, Zipporah W

    2016-01-01

    The success of antiretroviral therapy in resource-scarce settings is an illustration that complex healthcare interventions can be successfully delivered even in fragile health systems. Documenting the success factors in the scale-up of HIV care and treatment in resource constrained settings will enable health systems to prepare for changing population health needs. This study describes changing demographic and clinical characteristics of adult pre-ART cohorts, and identifies predictors of pre-ART attrition at a large urban HIV clinic in Nairobi, Kenya. We conducted a retrospective cohort analysis of data on HIV infected adults (≥15 years) enrolling in pre-ART care between January 2004 and September 2015. Attrition (loss to program) was defined as those who died or were lost to follow-up (having no contact with the facility for at least 6 months). We used Kaplan-Meier survival analysis to determine time to event for the different modes of transition, and Cox proportional hazards models to determine predictors of pre-ART attrition. Over the 12 years of observation, there were increases in the proportions of young people (age 15 to 24 years); and patients presenting with early disease (by WHO clinical stage and higher median CD4 cell counts), p = 0.0001 for trend. Independent predictors of attrition included: aHR (95% CI): male gender 1.98 (1.69-2.33), p = 0.0001; age 20-24 years 1.80 (1.37-2.37), p = 0.0001), or 25-34 years 1.22 (1.01-1.47), p = 0.0364; marital status single 1.55 (1.29-1.86), p = 0.0001) or divorced 1.41(1.02-1.95), p = 0.0370; urban residency 1.83 (1.40-2.38), p = 0.0001; CD4 count of 0-100 cells/µl 1.63 (1.003-2.658), p = 0.0486 or CD4 count >500 cells/µl 2.14(1.46-3.14), p = 0.0001. In order to optimize the impact of HIV prevention, care and treatment in resource scarce settings, there is an urgent need to implement prevention and treatment interventions targeting young people and patients entering care with severe

  14. Modelling BSE trend over time in Europe, a risk assessment perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ducrot, Christian; Sala, Carole; Ru, Giuseppe; de Koeijer, Aline; Sheridan, Hazel; Saegerman, Claude; Selhorst, Thomas; Arnold, Mark; Polak, Miroslaw P; Calavas, Didier

    2010-06-01

    BSE is a zoonotic disease that caused the emergence of variant Creuzfeldt-Jakob disease in the mid 1990s. The trend of the BSE epidemic in seven European countries was assessed and compared, using Age-Period-Cohort and Reproduction Ratio modelling applied to surveillance data 2001-2007. A strong decline in BSE risk was observed for all countries that applied control measures during the 1990s, starting at different points in time in the different countries. Results were compared with the type and date of the BSE control measures implemented between 1990 and 2001 in each country. Results show that a ban on the feeding of meat and bone meal (MBM) to cattle alone was not sufficient to eliminate BSE. The fading out of the epidemic started shortly after the complementary measures targeted at controlling the risk in MBM. Given the long incubation period, it is still too early to estimate the additional effect of the ban on the feeding of animal protein to all farm animals that started in 2001. These results provide new insights in the risk assessment of BSE for cattle and Humans, which will especially be useful in the context of possible relaxing BSE surveillance and control measures.

  15. River flood seasonality in the Northeast United States and trends in annual timing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins, M. J.

    2017-12-01

    The New England and Mid-Atlantic regions of the Northeast United States have experienced climate-associated increases in both the magnitude and frequency of floods. However, a detailed understanding of flood seasonality across these regions, and how flood seasonality may have changed over the instrumental record, has not been established. The annual timing of river floods reflects the flood-generating mechanisms operating in a basin and many aquatic and riparian organisms are adapted to flood seasonality, as are human uses of river channels and floodplains. Changes in flood seasonality may indicate changes in flood-generating mechanisms, and their interactions, with important implications for habitats, floodplain infrastructure, and human communities. For example, changes in spring or fall flood timing may negatively or positively affect a vulnerable life stage for a migratory fish (e.g., egg setting) depending on whether floods occur more frequently before or after the life history event. In this study I apply an objective, probabilistic method for identifying flood seasons at a monthly resolution for 90 climate-sensitive watersheds in New England and the Mid-Atlantic (Hydrologic Unit Codes 01 and 02). Historical trends in flood timing during the year are also investigated. The analyses are based on partial duration flood series that are an average of 85 years long. The seasonality of flooding in these regions, and any historical changes, are considered in the context of other ongoing or expected phenological changes in the Northeast U.S. environment that affect flood generation—e.g., the timing of leaf-off/leaf-out for deciduous plants. How these factors interact will affect whether and how flood magnitudes and frequencies change in the future and associated impacts.

  16. A retrospective study of artificial insemination of 251 mares using chilled and fixed time frozen-thawed semen.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crowe, C A M; Ravenhill, P J; Hepburn, R J; Shepherd, C H

    2008-09-01

    Historically, artificial insemination (AI) using frozen semen has been perceived to have poorer success rates and be more labour intensive than using chilled semen. A retrospective study was therefore conducted to compare the conception rate achieved by AI between chilled and frozen semen, using fixed time insemination protocols over 2 breeding seasons. Artificial insemination using chilled semen produces a higher conception rate than that achieved with frozen semen. Mares (n = 251) were inseminated with either chilled (n = 112) or frozen (n = 139) semen in the 2006 and 2007 northern hemisphere breeding season. Per rectum ultrasonography of the mare's reproductive tract determined the timing of insemination, and deslorelin acetate was used to induce ovulation. Chilled semen insemination was performed using a single preovulatory dose delivered into the uterine body. Frozen semen was administered as 2 doses (pre- and post ovulation) using a deep uterine insemination technique. Pregnancy was detected ultrasonographically at 15 days post insemination. Conception rates were compared using a Chi-squared test. Insemination with frozen semen produced a significantly (P = 0.022) higher seasonal conception rate (82.0%) than that achieved with chilled semen (69.6%). Insemination with frozen semen can achieve conception rates equal to those with chilled semen, enabling the mare owner a greater selection of stallions.

  17. 45-Year trends in women's use of time and household management energy expenditure.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edward Archer

    Full Text Available CONTEXT: Relationships between socio-environmental factors and obesity are poorly understood due to a dearth of longitudinal population-level research. The objective of this analysis was to examine 45-year trends in time-use, household management (HM and energy expenditure in women. DESIGN AND PARTICIPANTS: Using national time-use data from women 19-64 years of age, we quantified time allocation and household management energy expenditure (HMEE from 1965 to 2010. HM was defined as the sum of time spent in food preparation, post-meal cleaning activities (e.g., dish-washing, clothing maintenance (e.g., laundry, and general housework. HMEE was calculated using body weights from national surveys and metabolic equivalents. RESULTS: The time allocated to HM by women (19-64 yrs decreased from 25.7 hr/week in 1965 to 13.3 hr/week in 2010 (P<0.001, with non-employed women decreasing by 16.6 hr/week and employed women by 6.7 hr/week (P<0.001. HMEE for non-employed women decreased 42% from 25.1 Mj/week (6004 kilocalories per week in 1965 to 14.6 Mj/week (3486 kcal/week in 2010, a decrement of 10.5 Mj/week or 1.5 Mj/day (2518 kcal/week; 360 kcal/day (P<0.001, whereas employed women demonstrated a 30% decrement of 3.9 Mj/week, 0.55 Mj/day (923 kcal/week, 132 kcal/day (P<0.001. The time women spent in screen-based media use increased from 8.3 hr/week in 1965 to 16.5 hr/week in 2010 (P<0.001, with non-employed women increasing 9.6 hr/week and employed women 7.5 hr/week (P<0.001. CONCLUSIONS: From 1965 to 2010, there was a large and significant decrease in the time allocated to HM. By 2010, women allocated 25% more time to screen-based media use than HM (i.e., cooking, cleaning, and laundry combined. The reallocation of time from active pursuits (i.e., housework to sedentary pastimes (e.g., watching TV has important health consequences. These results suggest that the decrement in HMEE may have contributed to the increasing prevalence of obesity in women during

  18. Trend Switching Processes in Financial Markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Preis, Tobias; Stanley, H. Eugene

    For an intriguing variety of switching processes in nature, the underlying complex system abruptly changes at a specific point from one state to another in a highly discontinuous fashion. Financial market fluctuations are characterized by many abrupt switchings creating increasing trends ("bubble formation") and decreasing trends ("bubble collapse"), on time scales ranging from macroscopic bubbles persisting for hundreds of days to microscopic bubbles persisting only for very short time scales. Our analysis is based on a German DAX Future data base containing 13,991,275 transactions recorded with a time resolution of 10- 2 s. For a parallel analysis, we use a data base of all S&P500 stocks providing 2,592,531 daily closing prices. We ask whether these ubiquitous switching processes have quantifiable features independent of the time horizon studied. We find striking scale-free behavior of the volatility after each switching occurs. We interpret our findings as being consistent with time-dependent collective behavior of financial market participants. We test the possible universality of our result by performing a parallel analysis of fluctuations in transaction volume and time intervals between trades. We show that these financial market switching processes have features similar to those present in phase transitions. We find that the well-known catastrophic bubbles that occur on large time scales - such as the most recent financial crisis - are no outliers but in fact single dramatic representatives caused by the formation of upward and downward trends on time scales varying over nine orders of magnitude from the very large down to the very small.

  19. Trends of solar ultraviolet irradiance at Barrow, Alaska, and the effect of measurement uncertainties on trend detection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Bernhard

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Spectral ultraviolet (UV irradiance has been observed near Barrow, Alaska (71° N, 157° W between 1991 and 2011 with an SUV-100 spectroradiometer. The instrument was historically part of the US National Science Foundation's UV Monitoring Network and is now a component of NSF's Arctic Observing Network. From these measurements, trends in monthly average irradiance and their uncertainties were calculated. The analysis focuses on two quantities, the UV Index (which is affected by atmospheric ozone concentrations and irradiance at 345 nm (which is virtually insensitive to ozone. Uncertainties of trend estimates depend on variations in the data due to (1 natural variability, (2 systematic and random errors of the measurements, and (3 uncertainties caused by gaps in the time series. Using radiative transfer model calculations, systematic errors of the measurements were detected and corrected. Different correction schemes were tested to quantify the sensitivity of the trend estimates on the treatment of systematic errors. Depending on the correction method, estimates of decadal trends changed between 1.5% and 2.9%. Uncertainties in the trend estimates caused by error sources (2 and (3 were set into relation with the overall uncertainty of the trend determinations. Results show that these error sources are only relevant for February, March, and April when natural variability is low due to high surface albedo. This method of addressing measurement uncertainties in time series analysis is also applicable to other geophysical parameters. Trend estimates varied between −14% and +5% per decade and were significant (95.45% confidence level only for the month of October. Depending on the correction method, October trends varied between −11.4% and −13.7% for irradiance at 345 nm and between −11.7% and −14.1% for the UV Index. These large trends are consistent with trends in short-wave (0.3–3.0 μm solar irradiance measured with pyranometers at NOAA

  20. Trend analysis of body weight parameters, mortality, and incidence of spontaneous tumors in Tg.rasH2 mice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paranjpe, Madhav G; Denton, Melissa D; Vidmar, Tom; Elbekai, Reem H

    2014-01-01

    Carcinogenicity studies have been performed in conventional 2-year rodent studies for at least 3 decades, whereas the short-term carcinogenicity studies in transgenic mice, such as Tg.rasH2, have only been performed over the last decade. In the 2-year conventional rodent studies, interlinked problems, such as increasing trends in the initial body weights, increased body weight gains, high incidence of spontaneous tumors, and low survival, that complicate the interpretation of findings have been well established. However, these end points have not been evaluated in the short-term carcinogenicity studies involving the Tg.rasH2 mice. In this article, we present retrospective analysis of data obtained from control groups in 26-week carcinogenicity studies conducted in Tg.rasH2 mice since 2004. Our analysis showed statistically significant decreasing trends in initial body weights of both sexes. Although the terminal body weights did not show any significant trends, there was a statistically significant increasing trend toward body weight gains, more so in males than in females, which correlated with increasing trends in the food consumption. There were no statistically significant alterations in mortality trends. In addition, the incidence of all common spontaneous tumors remained fairly constant with no statistically significant differences in trends. © The Author(s) 2014.

  1. Time-trends in assisted and unassisted suicides completed with different methods: Swiss National Cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steck, Nicole; Zwahlen, Marcel; Egger, Matthias

    2015-01-01

    The number of suicides assisted by right-to-die associations has increased in recent years in Switzerland. The aim of our study was to compare time trends in rates of assisted and unassisted suicide from 1991-2008. The Swiss National Cohort is a longitudinal study of mortality in the Swiss population; based on linkage of census data with mortality records up to 2008. The Federal Statistical Office coded suspected assisted suicides from 1998 onwards; and from 2003 onwards right-to-die associations reported the suicides they assisted. We used Poisson regression to analyse trends in rates of suicide per 100'000 person-years, by gender and age groups (15-34, 35-64, 65-94 years). A total of 7'940'297 individuals and 24'842 suicides were included. In women, rates changed little in the younger age groups but increased in 65-94-year-olds, due to an increase in suicide by poisoning (from 5.1 to 17.2 per 100'000; p suicides by poisoning was also observed in older men (from 8.6 to 18.2; psuicides by poisoning were assisted. In men, suicide rates declined in all age groups, driven by declines in suicide with firearms. Research is needed to gain a better understanding of the reasons for the tripling of assisted suicide rates in older women, and the doubling of rates in older men, of attitudes and vulnerabilities of those choosing assisted suicide, and of access to palliative care. Rates of assisted suicide should be monitored; including data on patient characteristics and underlying comorbidities.

  2. Clinical factors influencing normalization of prothrombin time after stopping warfarin: a retrospective cohort study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zondag Michelle

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Anticoagulation with warfarin should be stopped 4–6 days before invasive procedures to avoid bleeding complications. Despite this routine, some patients still have high International Normalized Ratio (INR values on the day of surgery and the procedure may be cancelled. We sought to identify easily available clinical characteristics that may influence the rate of normalization of prothrombin time when warfarin is stopped before surgery or invasive procedures. Methods Clinical data were collected retrospectively from consecutive cases from two cohorts, who stopped warfarin 6 days before surgery. An INR value of 1.6 or higher on the day of surgery or requirement for reversal with vitamin K the day before surgery were criteria for slow return (S to normal INR. Results Of 202 patients, 14 (7% were classified as S. Eight of the S-patients required reversal with vitamin K one day before surgery and in another case surgery was cancelled due to high INR. Baseline INR was the only variable significantly associated with classification as S in stepwise logistic regression analysis (p = 0.003. The odds ratio for being in the normal group was 0.27 (95% confidence interval 0.12–0.62 for each unit baseline INR increased. The positive predictive value of baseline INR with a cut off at > 3.0 was only 15% and for INR > 3.5 it was 33%. Conclusion Baseline INR, but not the size of the maintenance dose, is associated with the rate of normalization of prothrombin time after stopping warfarin, but it has limited utility as predictor in clinical practice. Whenever normal hemostasis is considered crucial for the safety, the INR should be checked again before the invasive procedure.

  3. Incidence, time trends and regional variation of childhood leukaemia in Germany and Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaatsch, P.; Mergenthaler, A.

    2008-01-01

    This paper presents data on the German and Europe-wide incidence, time trends and regional variations of childhood leukaemia. Data were provided by the German Childhood Cancer Registry (GCCR), a population-based cancer registry recording all cases of malignant diseases in children under 15 y of age residing in Germany and by the Automated Childhood Cancer Information System (ACCIS) co-ordinated at International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, that combines and evaluates data from several European population-based cancer registries. The incidence of leukaemia (44.0 per million) has increased in Europe as well as in Germany in the last decades (0.6% annually on average). Germany shows no systematic aggregation of regions with low or high cancer incidence in terms of regional clustering. Incidence rates differ between European regions with the highest rates in Northern Europe (48.0 per million) and the lowest rates in Eastern Europe (39.1). Altogether, the results from ACCIS and the GCCR show good agreement. (authors)

  4. A three year retrospective study on the increasing trend in seroprevalence of dengue infection from southern Odisha, India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sanghamitra Padhi

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background & objectives: In Odisha, several cases of dengue virus infection were detected for the first time in 2010, the importance of dengue as a serious mosquito-borne viral infection was felt only in 2011 with the reporting of many more positive cases. This retrospective three year study was done to find out the seroprevalence of dengue Ig m0 antibody and to know the predominant serotype of dengue virus among the patients suspected to have dengue virus infection in a tertiary care hospital in southern Odisha, India. Methods: Blood samples from clinically suspected dengue cases admitted in the Medicine and Paediatrics departments of a tertiary care hospital were collected. These were processed for detection of dengue specific IgM antibody, carried out by the ELISA method. Dengue IgM antibody positive serum samples were tested for serotypic identification. Results: o0 f the 5102 samples tested, 1074 (21.05 % were positive for dengue IgM. Maximum numbers of cases were found in 2012. Majority (47.86 % of cases were detected in the month of September. The most common affected age group was 11 to 20 yr. DENV1 and DENV2 were the detected serotypes. Interpretation & conclusions: Rapid increase in the dengue cases in 2012 became a public health concern as majority of cases were affecting the young adolescents. Most of the cases were reported in post-monsoon period indicating a need for acceleration of vector control programmes prior to arrival of monsoon.

  5. Assessment of land degradation using time series trend analysis of vegetation indictors in Otindag Sandy land

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, H Y; Li, Z Y; Gao, Z H; Wu, J J; Sun, B; Li, C L

    2014-01-01

    Land condition assessment is a basic prerequisite for finding the degradation of a territory, which might lead to desertification under climatic and human pressures. The temporal change in vegetation productivity is a key indicator of land degradation. In this paper, taking the Otindag Sandy Land as a case, the mean normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI a ), net primary production (NPP) and vegetation rain use efficiency (RUE) dynamic trends during 2001–2010 were analysed. The Mann-Kendall test and the Correlation Analysis method were used and their sensitivities to land degradation were evaluated. The results showed that the three vegetation indicators (NDVI a , NPP and RUE) showed a downward trend with the two methods in the past 10 years and the land was degraded. For the analysis of the three vegetation indicators (NDVI a , NPP and RUE), it indicated a decreasing trend in 62.57%, 74.16% and 88.56% of the study area according to the Mann-Kendall test and in 57.85%, 68.38% and 85.29% according to the correlation analysis method. However, the change trends were not significant, the significant trends at the 95% confidence level only accounted for a small proportion. Analysis of NDVI a , NPP and RUE series showed a significant decreasing trend in 9.21%, 4.81% and 6.51% with the Mann-Kendall test. The NPP change trends showed obvious positive link with the precipitation in the study area. While the effect of the inter-annual variation of the precipitation for RUE was small, the vegetation RUE can provide valuable insights into the status of land condition and had best sensitivity to land degradation

  6. Internal displacement and the Syrian crisis: an analysis of trends from 2011-2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doocy, Shannon; Lyles, Emily; Delbiso, Tefera D; Robinson, Courtland W

    2015-01-01

    Since the start of the Syrian crisis in 2011, civil unrest and armed conflict in the country have resulted in a rapidly increasing number of people displaced both within and outside of Syria. Those displaced face immense challenges in meeting their basic needs. This study sought to characterize internal displacement in Syria, including trends in both time and place, and to provide insights on the association between displacement and selected measures of household well-being and humanitarian needs. This study presents findings from two complementary methods: a desk review of displaced population estimates and movements and a needs assessment of 3930 Syrian households affected by the crisis. The first method, a desk review of displaced population estimates and movements, provides a retrospective analysis of national trends in displacement from March 2011 through June 2014. The second method, analysis of findings from a 2014 needs assessment by displacement status, provides insight into the displaced population and the association between displacement and humanitarian needs. Findings indicate that while displacement often corresponds to conflict levels, such trends were not uniformly observed in governorate-level analysis. Governorate level IDP estimates do not provide information on a scale detailed enough to adequately plan humanitarian assistance. Furthermore, such estimates are often influenced by obstructed access to certain areas, unsubstantiated reports, and substantial discrepancies in reporting. Secondary displacement is not consistently reported across sources nor are additional details about displacement, including whether displaced individuals originated within the current governorate or outside of the governorate. More than half (56.4 %) of households reported being displaced more than once, with a majority displaced for more than one year (73.3 %). Some differences between displaced and non-displaced population were observed in residence crowding, food

  7. Temporal correlations in population trends: Conservation implications from time-series analysis of diverse animal taxa

    Science.gov (United States)

    David Keith; H. Resit Akcakaya; Stuart H.M. Butchart; Ben Collen; Nicholas K. Dulvy; Elizabeth E. Holmes; Jeffrey A. Hutchings; Doug Keinath; Michael K. Schwartz; Andrew O. Shelton; Robin S. Waples

    2015-01-01

    Population trends play a large role in species risk assessments and conservation planning, and species are often considered threatened if their recent rate of decline meets certain thresholds, regardless how large the population is. But how reliable an indicator of extinction risk is a single estimate of population trend? Given the integral role this decline-...

  8. Botulinum Toxin Dosing Trends in Spasmodic Dysphonia Over a 20-year Period.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Namin, Arya W; Christopher, Kara M; Eisenbeis, John F

    2017-01-01

    The study aims to (1) identify the botulinum toxin (BTX) dosing trend in a cohort of patients who received at least 20 injections for the treatment of adductor spasmodic dysphonia (ADSD), (2) describe two distinct BTX dosing trends in treating ADSD (a "classic" dosing trend that initially decreases before stabilizing, and a "fluctuating" dosing trend), and (3) determine if patients with the "classic" dosing trend differed in age or in dosing intervals from those with the "fluctuating" dosing trend. This is a retrospective case series. Of 149 patients who received a total of 2484 BTX injections for the treatment of spasmodic dysphonia in 1993-2013, 49 patients received at least 20 injections. The BTX dose and the interval between doses were recorded. The mean dose of injections 1-20 was determined. The age at initial injection, initial dose, and interval in days between treatments were compared for the "fluctuating" and "classic" groups. The cohort exhibits a significant decrease in dose during the first 10-15 injections. The "fluctuating" group had a significantly shorter interval between injections (mean interval = 97.09 days, SD = 29.41; mean interval = 136.90 days, SD = 43.76, P = 0.002). The mean age at initial dose was not significantly different between the "classic" and "fluctuating" groups. The average BTX dose of patients with ADSD who receive long-term injections significantly decreases during the initial 10-15 injections before stabilizing. Patients who exhibit the "fluctuating" dosing pattern have a significantly shorter interval between injections than those with the "classic" dosing pattern. Copyright © 2017 The Voice Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Socio-demographic and other patient characteristics associated with time between colonoscopy and surgery, and choice of treatment centre for colorectal cancer: a retrospective cohort study

    OpenAIRE

    Goldsbury, David; Harris, Mark Fort; Pascoe, Shane; Olver, Ian; Barton, Michael; Spigelman, Allan; O'Connell, Dianne

    2012-01-01

    Objectives To investigate key patient clinical and demographic characteristics associated with time between colonoscopy and surgery, and choice of treatment centre for colorectal cancer (CRC) patients. This will add to the little published research examining the pathway following CRC diagnosis and prior to surgery. Design Retrospective cohort analysis of linked data. Setting A population-based sample of people diagnosed August 2004 to December 2007 in New South Wales, Australia. Participants ...

  10. Trends of Bacterial Keratitis Culture Isolates in Jerusalem; a 13- Years Analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Politis

    Full Text Available To describe the trends in pathogens and antibacterial resistance of corneal culture isolates in infectious keratitis during a period of 13 years at Hadassah-Hebrew University Medical Center.A Retrospective analysis of bacterial corneal isolates was performed during the months of January 2002 to December 2014 at Hadassah Hebrew University Medical Center. Demographics, microbiological data and antibiotic resistance and sensitivity were collected.A total of 943 corneal isolates were analyzed during a 13 year period. A total of 415 positive bacterial cultures and 37 positive fungal cultures were recovered, representing 48% of the total cultures. The Annual incidence was 34.78 ± 6.54 cases. The most common isolate was coagulase-negative staphylococcus (32%, which had a significant decrease in trend throughout the study period (APC = -8.1, p = 0.002. Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA appears to have a decrease trend (APC = -31.2, P = 0.5. There was an increase in the resistance trend of coagulase-negative staphylococci to penicillin (APC = 5.0, P = <0.001. None of the pathogens had developed any resistance to Vancomycin. (P = 0.88.Coagulase negative staphylococci were the predominant bacteria isolated from patients with keratitis. There was no significant change in the annual incidence of cases of bacterial keratitis seen over the past 13 years. Keratitis caused by MRSA appeared to decrease in contrast to the reported literature.

  11. Retrospective analysis of RF heating measurements of passive medical implants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Ting; Xu, Zhiheng; Iacono, Maria Ida; Angelone, Leonardo M; Rajan, Sunder

    2018-05-09

    The test reports for the RF-induced heating of metallic devices of hundreds of medical implants have been provided to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration as a part of premarket submissions. The main purpose of this study is to perform a retrospective analysis of the RF-induced heating data provided in the reports to analyze the trends and correlate them with implant geometric characteristics. The ASTM-based RF heating test reports from 86 premarket U.S. Food and Drug Administration submissions were reviewed by three U.S. Food and Drug Administration reviewers. From each test report, the dimensions and RF-induced heating values for a given whole-body (WB) specific absorption rate (SAR) and local background (LB) SAR were extracted and analyzed. The data from 56 stents were analyzed as a subset to further understand heating trends and length dependence. For a given WB SAR, the LB/WB SAR ratio varied significantly across the test labs, from 2.3 to 11.3. There was an increasing trend on the temperature change per LB SAR with device length. The maximum heating for stents occurred at lengths of approximately 100 mm at 3 T, and beyond 150 mm at 1.5 T. Differences in the LB/WB SAR ratios across testing labs and various MRI scanners could lead to inconsistent WB SAR labeling. Magnetic resonance (MR) conditional labeling based on WB SAR should be derived from a conservative estimate of global LB/WB ratios. Published 2018. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

  12. A New Trend-Following Indicator: Using SSA to Design Trading Rules

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leles, Michel Carlo Rodrigues; Mozelli, Leonardo Amaral; Guimarães, Homero Nogueira

    Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) is a non-parametric approach that can be used to decompose a time-series as trends, oscillations and noise. Trend-following strategies rely on the principle that financial markets move in trends for an extended period of time. Moving Averages (MAs) are the standard indicator to design such strategies. In this study, SSA is used as an alternative method to enhance trend resolution in comparison with the traditional MA. New trading rules using SSA as indicator are proposed. This paper shows that for the Down Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and Shangai Securities Composite Index (SSCI) time-series the SSA trading rules provided, in general, better results in comparison to MA trading rules.

  13. How abnormal is binge eating? 18-Year time trends in population prevalence and burden.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchison, D; Touyz, S; González-Chica, D A; Stocks, N; Hay, P

    2017-08-01

    Although findings suggest that binge eating is becoming increasingly normative, the 'clinical significance' of this behaviour at a population level remains uncertain. We aimed to assess the time trends in binge-eating prevalence and burden over 18 years. Six cross-sectional face-to-face surveys of the Australian adult population were conducted in 1998, 2005, 2008, 2009, 2014, and 2015 (N total = 15 126). Data were collected on demographics, 3-month prevalence of objective binge eating (OBE), health-related quality of life, days out of role, and distress related to OBE. The prevalence of OBE increased six-fold from 1998 (2.7%) to 2015 (13.0%). Health-related quality of life associated with OBE improved from 1998 to 2015, where it more closely approximated population norms. Days out of role remained higher among participants who reported OBE, although decreased over time. Half of participants who reported weekly (56.6%) and twice-weekly (47.1%) OBE reported that they were not distressed by this behaviour. However, the presence of distress related to OBE in 2015 was associated with greater health-related quality-of-life impairment. As the prevalence of binge eating increases over time, associated disability has been decreasing. Implications for the diagnosis of disorders associated with binge eating are discussed. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  14. Impact of the Economic Downturn on Elective Lumbar Spine Surgery in the United States: A National Trend Analysis, 2003 to 2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernstein, David N; Brodell, David; Li, Yue; Rubery, Paul T; Mesfin, Addisu

    2017-05-01

    Retrospective database analysis. The impact of the 2008-2009 economic downtown on elective lumbar spine surgery is unknown. Our objective was to investigate the effect of the economic downturn on the overall trends of elective lumbar spine surgery in the United States. The Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS) was used in conjunction with US Census and macroeconomic data to determine historical trends. The economic downturn was defined as 2008 to 2009. Codes from the International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification (ICD-9-CM), were used in order to identify appropriate procedures. Confidence intervals were determined using subgroup analysis techniques. From 2003 to 2012, there was a 19.8% and 26.1% decrease in the number of lumbar discectomies and laminectomies, respectively. Over the same time period, there was a 56.4% increase in the number of lumbar spinal fusions. The trend of elective lumbar spine surgeries per 100 000 persons in the US population remained consistent from 2008 to 2009. The number of procedures decreased by 4.5% from 2010 to 2011, 7.6% from 2011 to 2012, and 3.1% from 2012 to 2013. The R 2 value between the number of surgeries and the S&P 500 Index was statistically significant ( P ≤ .05). The economic downturn did not affect elective lumbar fusions, which increased in total from 2003 to 2013. The relationship between the S&P 500 Index and surgical trends suggests that during recessions, individuals may utilize other means, such as insurance, to cover procedural costs and reduce out-of-pocket expenditures, accounting for no impact of the economic downturn on surgical trends. These findings can assist multiple stakeholders in better understanding the interconnectedness of macroeconomics, policy, and elective lumbar spine surgery trends.

  15. Influenza forecasting with Google Flu Trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dugas, Andrea Freyer; Jalalpour, Mehdi; Gel, Yulia; Levin, Scott; Torcaso, Fred; Igusa, Takeru; Rothman, Richard E

    2013-01-01

    We developed a practical influenza forecast model based on real-time, geographically focused, and easy to access data, designed to provide individual medical centers with advanced warning of the expected number of influenza cases, thus allowing for sufficient time to implement interventions. Secondly, we evaluated the effects of incorporating a real-time influenza surveillance system, Google Flu Trends, and meteorological and temporal information on forecast accuracy. Forecast models designed to predict one week in advance were developed from weekly counts of confirmed influenza cases over seven seasons (2004-2011) divided into seven training and out-of-sample verification sets. Forecasting procedures using classical Box-Jenkins, generalized linear models (GLM), and generalized linear autoregressive moving average (GARMA) methods were employed to develop the final model and assess the relative contribution of external variables such as, Google Flu Trends, meteorological data, and temporal information. A GARMA(3,0) forecast model with Negative Binomial distribution integrating Google Flu Trends information provided the most accurate influenza case predictions. The model, on the average, predicts weekly influenza cases during 7 out-of-sample outbreaks within 7 cases for 83% of estimates. Google Flu Trend data was the only source of external information to provide statistically significant forecast improvements over the base model in four of the seven out-of-sample verification sets. Overall, the p-value of adding this external information to the model is 0.0005. The other exogenous variables did not yield a statistically significant improvement in any of the verification sets. Integer-valued autoregression of influenza cases provides a strong base forecast model, which is enhanced by the addition of Google Flu Trends confirming the predictive capabilities of search query based syndromic surveillance. This accessible and flexible forecast model can be used by

  16. 0.1 Trend analysis of δ18O composition of precipitation in Germany: Combining Mann-Kendall trend test and ARIMA models to correct for higher order serial correlation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klaus, Julian; Pan Chun, Kwok; Stumpp, Christine

    2015-04-01

    Spatio-temporal dynamics of stable oxygen (18O) and hydrogen (2H) isotopes in precipitation can be used as proxies for changing hydro-meteorological and regional and global climate patterns. While spatial patterns and distributions gained much attention in recent years the temporal trends in stable isotope time series are rarely investigated and our understanding of them is still limited. These might be a result of a lack of proper trend detection tools and effort for exploring trend processes. Here we make use of an extensive data set of stable isotope in German precipitation. In this study we investigate temporal trends of δ18O in precipitation at 17 observation station in Germany between 1978 and 2009. For that we test different approaches for proper trend detection, accounting for first and higher order serial correlation. We test if significant trends in the isotope time series based on different models can be observed. We apply the Mann-Kendall trend tests on the isotope series, using general multiplicative seasonal autoregressive integrate moving average (ARIMA) models which account for first and higher order serial correlations. With the approach we can also account for the effects of temperature, precipitation amount on the trend. Further we investigate the role of geographic parameters on isotope trends. To benchmark our proposed approach, the ARIMA results are compared to a trend-free prewhiting (TFPW) procedure, the state of the art method for removing the first order autocorrelation in environmental trend studies. Moreover, we explore whether higher order serial correlations in isotope series affects our trend results. The results show that three out of the 17 stations have significant changes when higher order autocorrelation are adjusted, and four stations show a significant trend when temperature and precipitation effects are considered. Significant trends in the isotope time series are generally observed at low elevation stations (≤315 m a

  17. Suitability of Israeli Household Salt for Retrospective Dosimetry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Datz, H.; Druzhyna, S.; Oster, L.; Orion, I.; Darras, I.; Hershkovich, D.; Horowitz, Y.

    2014-01-01

    Following a nuclear accident or a terror attack involving the dispersal of radioactive material, radiation dose assessment to first responders and the members of the public is essential. This information may be used by medical personnel to decide whether to refer the exposed individual for medical treatment or not. Few people, if any, will be wearing standard dosimeters at the exposure scene, so the need for a retrospective assessment of the radiation dose is an acute necessity. Previously developed methods for retrospective dosimetry (RD) have suggested various types of materials such as tiles, bricks, CDs, electronic components, mobile phones, electron paramagnetic resonance of tooth enamel, hair, nails, biological dosimetry techniques etc. These techniques involve significant disadvantages such as: the long time required to prepare the samples for measurement the considerable expense of the measuring equipment, invasive procedure and others. The need for an RD technique which will be fast, inexpensive, reliable, non-invasive and, if possible, portable, remains an on-going challenge. The ideal retrospective dosimeter must fulfill the following basic criteria: a) Availability in the contaminated area, b) Adequate dose measurement capability in the relevant range of dose levels, c) Negligible or known fading between exposure and measurement

  18. Time to Guideline-Based Empiric Antibiotic Therapy in the Treatment of Pneumonia in a Community Hospital: A Retrospective Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erwin, Beth L; Kyle, Jeffrey A; Allen, Leland N

    2016-08-01

    The 2005 American Thoracic Society/Infectious Diseases Society of America (ATS/IDSA) guidelines for hospital-acquired pneumonia (HAP), ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP), and health care-associated pneumonia (HCAP) stress the importance of initiating prompt appropriate empiric antibiotic therapy. This study's purpose was to determine the percentage of patients with HAP, VAP, and HCAP who received guideline-based empiric antibiotic therapy and to determine the average time to receipt of an appropriate empiric regimen. A retrospective chart review of adults with HAP, VAP, or HCAP was conducted at a community hospital in suburban Birmingham, Alabama. The hospital's electronic medical record system utilized International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision (ICD-9) codes to identify patients diagnosed with pneumonia. The percentage of patients who received guideline-based empiric antibiotic therapy was calculated. The mean time from suspected diagnosis of pneumonia to initial administration of the final antibiotic within the empiric regimen was calculated for patients who received guideline-based therapy. Ninety-three patients met the inclusion criteria. The overall guideline adherence rate for empiric antibiotic therapy was 31.2%. The mean time to guideline-based therapy in hours:minutes was 7:47 for HAP and 28:16 for HCAP. For HAP and HCAP combined, the mean time to appropriate therapy was 21:55. Guideline adherence rates were lower and time to appropriate empiric therapy was greater for patients with HCAP compared to patients with HAP. © The Author(s) 2015.

  19. TRENDS OF ROMANIAN BANKING NETWORK DEVELOPMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicoleta Georgeta PANAIT

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Since 2009, two trends occurred in the banking world: downsizing of personnel, on the one hand and the reduction of retail units held, on the other hand. The first trend was most notable in countries with unstable or weak economy. The effects were seen immediately. Reducing of the operating costs and more applied of the territorial structure and staff was a decision that credit institutions in Romania took relatively late. Worldwide banks began a restructuring otherwise dictated by this time not so economic crises new market trends - increasing access to the internet for the population and use of the internet in a growing proportion of internet banking

  20. Radiation exposure of ventilated trauma patients in intensive care: a retrospective study comparing two time periods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yee, Micaela V; Barron, Rochelle A; Knobloch, Tom A; Pandey, Umesh; Twyford, Catherine; Freebairn, Ross C

    2012-08-01

    To describe the cumulative effective dose of radiation that was received during the initial Emergency Department assessment and ICU stay of patients admitted with trauma, who required mechanical ventilation, during two time periods. A retrospective analysis of radiological and clinical data, set in a regional nonurban ICU. Two cohorts (starting 1 January 2004 and 1 January 2009), each comprising 45 adult patients admitted with trauma who were mechanically ventilated in intensive care, were studied. Frequency and type of radiological examinations, demographic information, and clinical data were collated from the radiological database, hospital admission record and Australian Outcomes Research Tool for Intensive Care database. Cumulative effective doses were calculated and expressed as a total dose and average daily dose for each cohort. The median cumulative effective dose per patient (in milliSieverts) increased from 34.59 [interquartile range (IQR) 9.08-43.91] in 2004 to 40.51 (IQR 22.01-48.87) in 2009, P=0.045. An increased number of computed tomography examinations per patient was also observed over the same interval from an average of 2.11 (median 2, IQR 1-3) in 2004 to an average of 2.62 (2, 2-4) in 2009, P=0.046. The radiation exposure of mechanically ventilated trauma patients in intensive care has increased over time. Radiation exposure should be prospectively monitored and staff should be aware of the increased risk resulting from this change in practice.

  1. Long-term trends of foE and geomagnetic activity variations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. V. Mikhailov

    2003-03-01

    Full Text Available A relationship between foE trends and geomagnetic activity long-term variations has been revealed for the first time. By analogy with earlier obtained results on the foF2 trends it is possible to speak about the geomagnetic control of the foE long-term trends as well. Periods of increasing geomagnetic activity correspond to negative foE trends, while these trends are positive for the decreasing phase of geomagnetic activity. This "natural" relationship breaks down around 1970 (on some stations later when pronounced positive foE trends have appeared on most of the stations considered. The dependence of foE trends on geomagnetic activity can be related with nitric oxide variations at the E-layer heights. The positive foE trends that appeared after the "break down" effect may also be explained by the [NO] decrease which is not related to geomagnetic activity variations. But negative trends or irregular foE variations on some stations for the same time period require some different mechanism. Chemical pollution of the lower thermosphere due to the anthropogenic activity may be responsible for such abnormal foE behavior after the end of the 1960s.Key words. Ionosphere (ionosphere-atmosphere interactions; ionospheric disturbances

  2. Ankle injuries in the Netherlands : Trends over 10-25 years

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kemler, Ellen; van de Port, I.; Valkenberg, H.; Hoes, A. W.; Backx, F. J G

    2015-01-01

    Ankle injuries are a common health problem; data on ankle injury rates and time trends in the population at large are scarce. Our aim was to investigate the incidence of and time trends in population-based and emergency department-treated ankle injuries related to sports activities and other

  3. Educational inequalities in obesity among Mexican women: time-trends from 1988 to 2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perez Ferrer, Carolina; McMunn, Anne; Rivera Dommarco, Juan A; Brunner, Eric J

    2014-01-01

    Obesity is one of the leading causes of global morbidity and mortality. Trends in educational inequalities in obesity prevalence among Mexican women have not been analysed systematically to date. Data came from four nationally representative surveys (1988, 1999, 2006, and 2012) of a total of 51 220 non-pregnant women aged 20 to 49. Weight and height were measured during home visits. Education level (higher education, high school, secondary, primary or less) was self-reported. We analysed trends in relative and absolute educational inequalities in obesity prevalence separately for urban and rural areas. Nationally, age-standardised obesity prevalence increased from 9.3% to 33.7% over 25 years to 2012. Obesity prevalence was inversely associated with education level in urban areas at all survey waves. In rural areas, obesity prevalence increased markedly but there was no gradient with education level at any survey. The relative index of inequality in urban areas declined over the period (2.87 (95%CI: 1.94, 4.25) in 1988, 1.55 (95%CI: 1.33, 1.80) in 2012, trend pwomen with higher education in the period 1988-2012 compared to 3.23 fold (95%CI: 2.88, 3.63) for urban women with primary or no education. The slope index of inequality increased in urban areas from 1988 to 2012. Over 0.5 M cases would be avoided if the obesity prevalence of women with primary or less education was the same as for women with higher education. The expected inverse association between education and obesity was observed in urban areas of Mexico. The declining trend in relative educational inequalities in obesity was due to a greater increase in obesity prevalence among higher educated women. In rural areas there was no social gradient in the association between education level and obesity across the four surveys.

  4. Trends in US home food preparation and consumption: analysis of national nutrition surveys and time use studies from 1965–1966 to 2007–2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Background It has been well-documented that Americans have shifted towards eating out more and cooking at home less. However, little is known about whether these trends have continued into the 21st century, and whether these trends are consistent amongst low-income individuals, who are increasingly the target of public health programs that promote home cooking. The objective of this study is to examine how patterns of home cooking and home food consumption have changed from 1965 to 2008 by socio-demographic groups. Methods This is a cross-sectional analysis of data from 6 nationally representative US dietary surveys and 6 US time-use studies conducted between 1965 and 2008. Subjects are adults aged 19 to 60 years (n= 38,565 for dietary surveys and n=55,424 for time-use surveys). Weighted means of daily energy intake by food source, proportion who cooked, and time spent cooking were analyzed for trends from 1965–1966 to 2007–2008 by gender and income. T-tests were conducted to determine statistical differences over time. Results The percentage of daily energy consumed from home food sources and time spent in food preparation decreased significantly for all socioeconomic groups between 1965–1966 and 2007–2008 (p ≤ 0.001), with the largest declines occurring between 1965 and 1992. In 2007–2008, foods from the home supply accounted for 65 to 72% of total daily energy, with 54 to 57% reporting cooking activities. The low income group showed the greatest decline in the proportion cooking, but consumed more daily energy from home sources and spent more time cooking than high income individuals in 2007–2008 (p ≤ 0.001). Conclusions US adults have decreased consumption of foods from the home supply and reduced time spent cooking since 1965, but this trend appears to have leveled off, with no substantial decrease occurring after the mid-1990’s. Across socioeconomic groups, people consume the majority of daily energy from the home food supply, yet only

  5. Time trends and changes in the distribution of malaria cases in the Brazilian Amazon Region, 2004-2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isac da SF Lima

    Full Text Available Recent efforts to reduce malaria incidence have had some successes. Nevertheless, malaria persists as a significant public health problem in the Brazilian Amazon. The objective of this study was to describe changes in malaria case characteristics and to identify trends in malaria incidence in the Brazilian Amazon. This study used data from the Malaria Epidemiological Surveillance and Case Notification Information System from 2004 to 2013. The annual parasite incidence (API was calculated and joinpoint regression was used to assess the trends in API over time. There was a sharp increase in API in the state of Acre, followed by two periods of decrease. Pará also presented inconsistent decreases over the study period. Amapá, Amazonas, Rondônia, and Roraima showed statistically significant decreases over the period. The sharpest decrease occurred in Rondônia, with a reduction of 21.7% in the average annual percent change (AAPC (AAPC: -21.7%; 95% confidence interval: -25.4%, -17.8%; p < 0.05. This panorama of malaria incidence highlights the importance of integrating evidence-based malaria surveillance and control. Malaria is highly preventable, and eliminating its transmission should be a goal in coming decades.

  6. Converging social trends - emerging outdoor recreation issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carl H. Reidel

    1980-01-01

    I can't recall when I have attended a national conference with a more clearly defined objective than this one. We are here to document outdoor recreation trends and explore their meaning for the future. The word "trend" appears no less than 45 times in the conference brochure, and the symposium organizers are determined that the proceedings will be...

  7. Cycling in São Paulo, Brazil (1997–2012: Correlates, time trends and health consequences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thiago Hérick Sá

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of the study was to describe cyclists and cycling trips, and to explore correlates, time trends and health consequences of cycling in São Paulo, Brazil from 1997 to 2012. Cross-sectional analysis using repeated São Paulo Household Travel Surveys (HTS. At all time periods cycling was a minority travel mode in São Paulo (1174 people with cycling trips out of 214,719 people. Poisson regressions for individual correlates were estimated using the entire 2012 HTS sample. Men were six times more likely to cycle than women. We found rates of bicycle use rising over time among the richest quartile but total cycling rates dropped from 1997 to 2012 due to decreasing rates among the poor. Harms from air pollution would negate benefits from physical activity through cycling only at 1997 air pollution levels and at very high cycling levels (≥9 h of cycling per day. Exposure-based road injury risk decreased between 2007 and 2012, from 0.76 to 0.56 cyclist deaths per 1000 person-hours travelled. Policies to reduce spatial segregation, measures to tackle air pollution, improvements in dedicated cycling infrastructure, and integrating the bicycle with the public transport system in neighborhoods of all income levels could make cycling safer and prevent more individuals from abandoning the cycling mode in São Paulo.

  8. The demise of multidrug-resistant HIV-1: the national time trend in Portugal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vercauteren, Jurgen; Theys, Kristof; Carvalho, Ana Patricia; Valadas, Emília; Duque, Luis Miguel; Teófilo, Eugénio; Faria, Telo; Faria, Domitília; Vera, José; Aguas, Maria João; Peres, Susana; Mansinho, Kamal; Vandamme, Anne-Mieke; Camacho, Ricardo Jorge

    2013-04-01

    Despite a decreasing mortality and morbidity in treated HIV-1 patients, highly active antiretroviral treatment (HAART) can still fail due to the development of drug resistance. Especially, multidrug-resistant viruses pose a threat to efficient therapy. We studied the changing prevalence of multidrug resistance (MDR) over time in a cohort of HIV-1-infected patients in Portugal. We used data of 8065 HIV-1-infected patients followed from July 2001 up to April 2012 in 22 hospitals located in Portugal. MDR at a specific date of sampling was defined as no more than one fully active drug (excluding integrase and entry inhibitors) at that time authorized by the Portuguese National Authority of Medicines and Health Products (INFARMED), as interpreted with the Rega algorithm version 8.0.2. A generalized linear mixed model was used to study the time trend of the prevalence of MDR. We observed a statistically significant decrease in the prevalence of MDR over the last decade, from 6.9% (95% CI: 5.7-8.4) in 2001-03, 6.0% (95% CI: 4.9-7.2) in 2003-05, 3.7% (95% CI: 2.8-4.8) in 2005-07 and 1.6% (95% CI: 1.1-2.2) in 2007-09 down to 0.6% (95% CI: 0.3-0.9) in 2009-12 [OR=0.80 (95% CI: 0.75-0.86); P<0.001]. In July 2011 the last new case of MDR was seen. The prevalence of multidrug-resistant HIV-1 is decreasing over time in Portugal, reflecting the increasing efficiency of HAART and the availability of new drugs. Therefore, in designing a new drug, safety and practical aspects, e.g. less toxicity and ease of use, may need more attention than focusing mainly on efficacy against resistant strains.

  9. Dose trend analysis of the PWR nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cernilogar Radez, M.; Janzekovic, H.; Krizman, M.

    2002-01-01

    The analyses of occupational dose trends in Krsko NPP in the period from 1995 to 2001 are given in comparison to the worldwide data. The Central Dose Register of Workers in Nuclear Installations at the Slovenian Nuclear Safety Administration enables the comprehensive dose trend analysis of the occupational doses in Krsko NPP. The time dose trend of the collective annual effective dose at the Krsko NPP shows somehow different trend than the trends of the ISOE data [1]. The performance indicators describing dose data distributions related to the radiation protection standards [2, 3] are discussed.(author)

  10. Time trends for prostate cancer mortality in Brazil and its geographic regions: An age-period-cohort analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braga, Sonia Faria Mendes; de Souza, Mirian Carvalho; Cherchiglia, Mariangela Leal

    2017-10-01

    In the 1980s, an increase in mortality rates for prostate cancer was observed in North America and developed European countries. In the 1990s, however, mortality rates decreased for these countries, an outcome related to early detection of the disease. Conversely, an upward trend in mortality rates was observed in Brazil. This study describe the trends in mortality for prostate cancer in Brazil and geographic regions (North, Northeast, South, Southeast, and Central-West) between 1980 until 2014 and analyze the influence of age, period, and cohort effects on mortality rates. This time-series study used data from the Mortality Information System (SIM) and population data from Brazilian Institute for Geography and Statistics (IBGE). The effects on mortality rates were examined using age-period-cohort (APC) models. Crude and standardized mortality rates showed an upward trend for Brazil and its regions more than 2-fold the last 30 years. Age effects showed an increased risk of death in all regions. Period effects showed a higher risk of death in the finals periods for the North and Northeast. Cohort effects showed risk of death was higher for younger than older generations in Brazil and regions, mainly Northeast (RR Adjusted =3.12, 95% CI 1.29-1.41; RR Adjusted =0.28, 95% CI 0.26-0.30, respectively). The increase in prostate cancer mortality rates in Brazil and its regions was mainly due to population aging. The differences in mortality rates and APC effects between regions are related to demographic differences and access of health services across the country. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Uterine cervix cancer treatment at Radiumhemmet: 90 years′ experience. Time trends of age, stage, and histopathology distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hellman, Kristina; Hellström, Ann-Cathrin; Pettersson, B Folke

    2014-01-01

    Since the introduction of screening programs for cervical cancer (CC) the incidence has decreased and CC is discovered at an earlier stage. The purpose of this study was to analyze time trends in age, stage, and histopathology over a 90-year period and to our knowledge this is the largest single institutional series in the literature of invasive cervical carcinoma (CC) cases. This is a retrospective study comprising 18,472 women treated for CC from 1914 until 2004 at Radiumhemmet, Stockholm. The material is part of the international CC statistics published since 1937 in the League of Nations' Annual Reports, and since 1958 under the patronage of International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO). During the 90-year study period, the annual number of cases treated increased to over 400 up until 1965, after which there was a gradual drop to less than 100 cases in 2004. A pronounced shift toward earlier stages at diagnosis was noted. The mean age at diagnosis increased in all stages, predominantly in advanced stages. A reduction in squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) cases and a sixfold increase in the proportion of adenocarcinoma (AC) cases were observed. The mean age at diagnosis for squamous and AC cases shifted after 1970, when the SCC cases ultimately became 3 years older than the AC cases in contrast to around 1950 when they were 3 years younger than the AC cases. The changes in the distribution by age, stage, and histopathology during this 90-year period are probably associated with: improved social conditions and increased access to health care, the introduction of screening programs for CC in the 1960s, and a change in the risk factors for CC (changed sexual behavior, introduction of contraceptive pills, and changed smoking habits). This is a study on changes in the distribution by age, stage, and histopathology in a large series of cervical cancer treated in Sweden during a 90-year period. It also includes an historical review about the development of

  12. NEW TRENDS IN MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Micu Alexandra

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Over the last years, management have been facing a series of profound changes in trends coming and going, one being more productive than other or causing more damage when applied improperly. The paper focuses on the last trends in management that have evolved in the last years, trends that have been marked by a Darwinian business environment and made more unforgiving since the financial crisis and the innovations in technology, social media and management philosophy. The paper will present and describe the most important new trends in management that enabled select organisations to remain competitive and overcome the multiple difficulties caused by the ever-changing economy based on a qualitative research. From the “outside innovation” that is considered always to be the key in overcoming the obstacles facing an organization, to the new buzzword “design”, that is said to ensure the organization long-term competitive advantage, the paper will analyse new trends and also will be describing the impact they have on the welfare of the organization. The research has also shown that managers tend to put a greater accent on searching for innovation rather than efficiency in order to ensure a continuous progress in the organization and to maintain business sustainability. The paper will not be comparing the efficiency of these different philosophies, or the results they generated, as time will still be the ultimate judge.

  13. Improvement in Obstructive Sleep Apnea Diagnosis and Management Wait Times: A Retrospective Analysis of a Home Management Pathway for Obstructive Sleep Apnea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samuel Alan Stewart

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Obstructive sleep apnea is a common condition within the Canadian population. The current gold standard for diagnosis and management of patients is in-laboratory (in-lab polysomnography; however, the limited availability of testing options for patients has led to long wait times and increased disease burden within the population. The Sleep Research Laboratory in Saskatoon (Saskatchewan implemented a home management program to run in parallel with the in-lab system several years ago in an effort to increase their capacity and reduce wait times. The present study was a retrospective analysis of all patients referred to the program between 2009 and 2012. The home management system has improved wait times by diagnosing and managing up to one-half of the referred patient population, reducing the wait for in-lab treatment from a median of 152 days in 2009 to 92 days in 2012 (P<0.0001. Moving forward, home management can provide a viable alternative to in-lab testing for patients who meet strict entry criteria, reducing the in-lab workload and, ultimately, reducing wait times.

  14. Temperature and ice layer trends in the summer middle atmosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lübken, F.-J.; Berger, U.

    2012-04-01

    We present results from our LIMA model (Leibniz Institute Middle Atmosphere Model) which nicely reproduces mean conditions of the summer mesopause region and also mean characteristics of ice layers known as noctilucent clouds. LIMA nudges to ECMWF data in the troposphere and lower stratosphere which influences the background conditions in the mesosphere. We study temperature trends in the mesosphere at middle and polar latitudes and compared with temperature trends from satellites, lidar, and phase height observations. For the first time large observed temperature trends in the summer mesosphere can be reproduced and explained by a model. As will be shown, stratospheric ozone has a major impact on temperature trends in the summer mesosphere. The temperature trend is not uniform in time: it is moderate from 1961 (the beginning of our record) until the beginning of the 1980s. Thereafter, temperatures decrease much stronger until the mid 1990s. Thereafter, temperatures are nearly constant or even increase with time. As will be shown, trends in ozone and carbon dioxide explain most of this behavior. Ice layers in the summer mesosphere are very sensitive to background conditions and are therefore considered to be appropriate tracers for long term variations in the middle atmosphere. We use LIMA background conditions to determine ice layer characteristics in the mesopause region. We compare our results with measurements, for example with albedos from the SBUV satellites, and show that we can nicely reproduce observed trends. It turns out that temperature trends are positive (negative) in the upper (lower) part of the ice layer regime. This complicates an interpretation of NLC long term variations in terms of temperature trends.

  15. Complementary feeding patterns in the first year of life in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: time trends from 1998 to 2008

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Alves de Oliveira

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed to analyze time trends in complementary feeding practices among children under one year of age in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, from 1998 to 2008. Based on comparable questions on food consumption in five surveys conducted in representative randomized samples of children in 1998 (n = 3,762, 2000 (n = 3,670, 2003 (n = 4,305, 2006 (n = 3,686, and 2008 (n = 2,621, 16 complementary feeding indicators were constructed. The percentage frequency of all indicators was estimated for each year of the study. Linear trend analyses were also conducted by means of multivariate regression models. All indicators of early complementary feeding decreased from 1998 to 2008. In the 6-11.9 month age group, there was a significant downward trend in the proportion of children receiving food with adequate consistency for their age, consumption of iron-rich foods, and overall adequacy of the diet. A significant upward trend in fruit consumption was observed. There was a decrease in the early complementary feeding, and generally a worsening of complementary feeding practices in children aged 6-11.9 months in Rio de Janeiro during the period studied.

  16. Global cardiovascular research output, citations, and collaborations: a time-trend, bibliometric analysis (1999-2008).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huffman, Mark D; Baldridge, Abigail; Bloomfield, Gerald S; Colantonio, Lisandro D; Prabhakaran, Poornima; Ajay, Vamadevan S; Suh, Sarah; Lewison, Grant; Prabhakaran, Dorairaj

    2013-01-01

    Health research is one mechanism to improve population-level health and should generally match the health needs of populations. However, there have been limited data to assess the trends in national-level cardiovascular research output, even as cardiovascular disease [CVD] has become the leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. We performed a time trends analysis of cardiovascular research publications (1999-2008) downloaded from Web of Knowledge using a iteratively-tested cardiovascular bibliometric filter with >90% precision and recall. We evaluated cardiovascular research publications, five-year running actual citation indices [ACIs], and degree of international collaboration measured through the ratio of the fractional count of addresses from one country against all addresses for each publication. Global cardiovascular publication volume increased from 40 661 publications in 1999 to 55 284 publications in 2008, which represents a 36% increase. The proportion of cardiovascular publications from high-income, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development [OECD] countries declined from 93% to 84% of the total share over the study period. High-income, OECD countries generally had higher fractional counts, which suggest less international collaboration, than lower income countries from 1999-2008. There was an inverse relationship between cardiovascular publications and age-standardized CVD morbidity and mortality rates, but a direct, curvilinear relationship between cardiovascular publications and Human Development Index from 1999-2008. Cardiovascular health research output has increased substantially in the past decade, with a greater share of citations being published from low- and middle-income countries. However, low- and middle-income countries with the higher burdens of cardiovascular disease continue to have lower research output than high-income countries, and thus require targeted research investments to improve cardiovascular health.

  17. Necrotizing fasciitis: 11-year retrospective case review in South Auckland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kulasegaran, Suheelan; Cribb, Benjamin; Vandal, Alain C; McBride, Stephen; Holland, David; MacCormick, Andrew D

    2016-10-01

    The aims of this paper were to review our experience with necrotizing fasciitis at Middlemore Hospital and to define the trends in incidence, inpatient mortality and microbiological profile. A computerized search of the electronic medical records was undertaken to identify adult patients with a diagnosis of necrotizing fasciitis between January 2000 and December 2010. A retrospective review of the clinical records was performed. Of the 138 patients with necrotizing fasciitis identified, 129 had their diagnosis confirmed at operation. The mortality at 30 days was 20.3% (95% confidence interval (CI) 13.9%-28.0%). There was a significant reduction in hospital mortality in each successive year of the study period with an odds ratio of 0.84 (95% CI 0.71-0.98, P = 0.03). A pattern of increasing incidence was noted until February 2004 (95% CI September 2002-July 2005). This was followed by a significant decrease in incidence. The empirical antibiotic regime of clindamycin, gentamicin and penicillin provides satisfactory cover against 95% of the causative pathogens. This represents the largest single-centre published case series in New Zealand. Despite concerns of increasing incidence and mortality associated with necrotizing fasciitis in New Zealand, the experience in South Auckland shows a decrease in incidence of necrotizing fasciitis since 2004 and a statistically significant decreasing trend in hospital mortality. © 2015 Royal Australasian College of Surgeons.

  18. Travel and tourism trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deborah J. Chavez

    1995-01-01

    Demographic trends which impact leisure time activities are highlighted, with particular emphasis given to the impacts of the growth of minority populations. Data was collected from recreationists to National Forests and from residents of an urban community. The data indicate a shift in outdoor recreation activities.

  19. Footprint and imprint: an ecologic time-trend analysis of cardiovascular publications in general and specialty journals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baldridge, Abigail S; Huffman, Mark D; Bloomfield, Gerald S; Prabhakaran, Dorairaj

    2014-06-01

    Studies have demonstrated strong associations between publication source and citations, as well as investigatory analysis of collaboration effects, in general and medical literature, but are limited to specific journals or short duration of time. This study sought to analyze time trends in cardiovascular research publications in leading general and specialty journals and to determine the association between collaboration and citation index. Cardiovascular publications were retrieved from Web of Knowledge by a cardiovascular bibliometric filter, and annual publication volumes in 8 general and specialty journals were compared. Univariable linear regression models were used to determine global and journal-specific trends for overall publication, cardiovascular publication, proportion of cardiovascular publication, collaboration, and citations. Cardiovascular publications increased (1999 to 2008) by 36% and number of sources by 74%. Volume increased in European Heart Journal (beta: 18.4, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 10.6 to 26.3) and decreased in Circulation (beta: -42.9, 95% CI: -79.3 to -6.5), Annals of Internal Medicine (beta: -1.9, 95% CI: -3.5 to -0.3), and Lancet (beta: -11.2, 95% CI: -14.7 to -7.8). Number of contributing countries increased in 3 journals: BMJ (beta: 0.8, 95% CI: 0.2 to 1.5), European Heart Journal (beta: -1.2, 95% CI: 0.8 to 1.7), and New England Journal of Medicine (beta: 1.6, 95% CI: 0.6 to 2.7). Fraction of collaborative publications increased (beta: 1.1 to 2.9) in all but Annals of Internal Medicine. Collaboration was associated with a higher median actual citation index (p general and specialty journals. Contribution by country in selected journals was disproportionate and under-represents total cardiovascular research in low- and middle-income countries. Copyright © 2014 World Heart Federation (Geneva). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Do Japanese Work Shorter Hours than before?: Measuring Trends in Market Work and Leisure Using 1976-2006 Japanese Time-Use Survey

    OpenAIRE

    Kuroda, Sachiko

    2009-01-01

    Using Japanese time-use data from the Survey on Time Use and Leisure Activities (STULA), this paper measures trends in average hours worked (market work) and leisure for Japanese over the past three decades. OECD reports at least a 15 percent decline in market work for Japan since the 1970s. However, holding demographic changes constant, we found that market work per week increased from the 1970s until mid 1980s, and has been relatively stable for the last two decades for both male and female...

  1. Retrospective evaluation of tritium fallout by tree-ring analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kozak, K.; Biro, T.; Golder, F.; Rank, D.; Rajner, V.; Staudner, F.

    1993-01-01

    Tritium analyses of tree-ring cellulose were made to test its suitability for retrospective evaluation of a local tritium fallout. Several spruce trees were taken from an Austrian alpine area where tritium contamination of May 1974 precipitation had been detected. Wood from the annual growth rings of 1973, 1974 and 1975 was separated and the cellulose extracted. After isotopic equilibration with dead water, cellulose was combusted to yield water, whose tritium concentration was measured by liquid scintillation counting. Rigorous statistical treatment proved the significance of the increased tritium concentration caused by the tritium anomaly, which occurred during the growing season. The long-term trends of local atmospheric tritium, including the 1974 peak, were also well reflected by analysis of a 24-year ring sequence from a single tree in the contaminated area. The tritium data gained by the given method can be used at present qualitatively and a better understanding of the possible sources of contamination is required in order that the quantitative criteria be satisfied. (Author)

  2. Background music as a quasi clock in retrospective duration judgments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bailey, Nicole; Areni, Charles S

    2006-04-01

    The segmentation-change model of time perception proposes that individuals engaged in cognitive tasks during a given interval of time retrospectively estimate duration by recalling events that occurred during the interval and inferring each event's duration. Previous research suggests that individuals can recall the number of songs heard during an interval and infer the length of each song, exactly the conditions that foster estimates of duration based on the segmentation-change model. The results of a laboratory experiment indicated that subjects who solved word-search puzzles for 20 min. estimated the duration of the interval to be longer when 8 short songs (background, regardless of whether the musical format was Contemporary Dance or New Age. Assuming each song represented a distinct segment in memory, these results are consistent with the segmentation-change model. These results suggest that background music may not always reduce estimates of duration by drawing attention away from the passage of time. Instead, background music may actually expand the subjective length of an interval by creating accessible traces in memory, which are retrospectively used to infer duration.

  3. A Semiparametric Time Trend Varying Coefficients Model: With An Application to Evaluate Credit Rationing in U.S. Credit Market

    OpenAIRE

    Jingping Gu; Paula Hernandez-Verme

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, we propose a new semiparametric varying coefficient model which extends the existing semi-parametric varying coefficient models to allow for a time trend regressor with smooth coefficient function. We propose to use the local linear method to estimate the coefficient functions and we provide the asymptotic theory to describe the asymptotic distribution of the local linear estimator. We present an application to evaluate credit rationing in the U.S. credit market. Using U.S. mon...

  4. A Semiparametric Time Trend Varying Coefficients Model: With An Application to Evaluate Credit Rationing in U.S. Credit Market

    OpenAIRE

    Qi Gao; Jingping Gu; Paula Hernandez-Verme

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, we propose a new semiparametric varying coefficient model which extends the existing semi-parametric varying coefficient models to allow for a time trend regressor with smooth coefficient function. We propose to use the local linear method to estimate the coefficient functions and we provide the asymptotic theory to describe the asymptotic distribution of the local linear estimator. We present an application to evaluate credit rationing in the U.S. credit market. Using U.S. mon...

  5. Current trends in Irish perinatal mortality.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Mahony, R

    2010-06-01

    This was a retrospective review of normally formed perinatal deaths among 176,620 births at the National Maternity Hospital (1984-2007). Prelabor stillbirths were categorised by presumed cause of death including unexplained, intrauterine growth retardation (IUGR), placental abruption, red cell alloimmunisation (RCA) and deaths related to prematurity. Peripartum deaths included intrapartum and first week neonatal deaths. The post-mortem rate, initially almost 100%, fell to 60%. Data were analysed using the Mantel-Haenszel chi square test for trends. In the study period there was a significant reduction in the PNM, largely because of a fall in death related to prematurity, term peripartum death, death at 42 weeks or greater, placental abruption, death related to IUGR and RCA (P < 0.01). Overall the unexplained still birth rate was unchanged throughout the study period (p = 0.8) despite a highly significant (p < 0.001) increase in obstetric intervention particularly induction of labor and caesarean section.

  6. Global Search Trends of Oral Problems using Google Trends from 2004 to 2016: An Exploratory Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patthi, Basavaraj; Kumar, Jishnu Krishna; Singla, Ashish; Gupta, Ritu; Prasad, Monika; Ali, Irfan; Dhama, Kuldeep; Niraj, Lav Kumar

    2017-09-01

    Oral diseases are pandemic cause of morbidity with widespread geographic distribution. This technology based era has brought about easy knowledge transfer than traditional dependency on information obtained from family doctors. Hence, harvesting this system of trends can aid in oral disease quantification. To conduct an exploratory analysis of the changes in internet search volumes of oral diseases by using Google Trends © (GT © ). GT © were utilized to provide real world facts based on search terms related to categories, interest by region and interest over time. Time period chosen was from January 2004 to December 2016. Five different search terms were explored and compared based on the highest relative search volumes along with comma separated value files to obtain an insight into highest search traffic. The search volume measured over the time span noted the term "Dental caries" to be the most searched in Japan, "Gingivitis" in Jordan, "Oral Cancer" in Taiwan, "No Teeth" in Australia, "HIV symptoms" in Zimbabwe, "Broken Teeth" in United Kingdom, "Cleft palate" in Philippines, "Toothache" in Indonesia and the comparison of top five searched terms provided the "Gingivitis" with highest search volume. The results from the present study offers an insight into a competent tool that can analyse and compare oral diseases over time. The trend research platform can be used on emerging diseases and their drift in geographic population with great acumen. This tool can be utilized in forecasting, modulating marketing strategies and planning disability limitation techniques.

  7. The paradox of cooling streams in a warming world: Regional climate trends do not parallel variable local trends in stream temperature in the Pacific continental United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arismendi, Ivan; Johnson, Sherri; Dunham, Jason B.; Haggerty, Roy; Hockman-Wert, David

    2012-01-01

    Temperature is a fundamentally important driver of ecosystem processes in streams. Recent warming of terrestrial climates around the globe has motivated concern about consequent increases in stream temperature. More specifically, observed trends of increasing air temperature and declining stream flow are widely believed to result in corresponding increases in stream temperature. Here, we examined the evidence for this using long-term stream temperature data from minimally and highly human-impacted sites located across the Pacific continental United States. Based on hypothesized climate impacts, we predicted that we should find warming trends in the maximum, mean and minimum temperatures, as well as increasing variability over time. These predictions were not fully realized. Warming trends were most prevalent in a small subset of locations with longer time series beginning in the 1950s. More recent series of observations (1987-2009) exhibited fewer warming trends and more cooling trends in both minimally and highly human-influenced systems. Trends in variability were much less evident, regardless of the length of time series. Based on these findings, we conclude that our perspective of climate impacts on stream temperatures is clouded considerably by a lack of long-termdata on minimally impacted streams, and biased spatio-temporal representation of existing time series. Overall our results highlight the need to develop more mechanistic, process-based understanding of linkages between climate change, other human impacts and stream temperature, and to deploy sensor networks that will provide better information on trends in stream temperatures in the future.

  8. Estimated and forecasted trends in domain specific time-use and energy expenditure among adults in Russia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dearth-Wesley, Tracy; Popkin, Barry M; Ng, Shu Wen

    2014-01-30

    Examination of historical trends and projections in estimated energy expenditure in Russia is important given the country's economic downturns and growth. Nationally representative data from the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS) from 1995-2011 was used to determine the metabolic equivalents of task (MET)-hours per week from occupational, domestic, travel, and active leisure physical activity (PA) domains, as well as sedentary leisure time (hours per week) among adults 18-60 years. Additionally, we projected what these values would be like in 2020 and 2030 if observed trends continue. Among male adults, the largest contributor to total PA was occupational PA followed by travel PA. In contrast, domestic PA followed by occupational PA contributed most to total PA among female adults. Total PA was 282.9 MET-hours per week in 1995 and declined to 231.7 in 2011. Total PA is projected to decrease to 216.5 MET-hours per week in 2020 and to 193.0 MET-hours per week in 2030. The greatest relative declines are occurring in travel PA. Female adults are also exhibiting significant declines in domestic PA. Changes in occupational and active leisure PA are less distinct. Policies and initiatives are needed to counteract the long-term decline of overall physical activity linked with a modernizing lifestyle and economy among Russian adults.

  9. Did Medicare Part D Affect National Trends in Health Outcomes or Hospitalizations? A Time-Series Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Briesacher, Becky A; Madden, Jeanne M; Zhang, Fang; Fouayzi, Hassan; Ross-Degnan, Dennis; Gurwitz, Jerry H; Soumerai, Stephen B

    2015-06-16

    Medicare Part D increased economic access to medications, but its effect on population-level health outcomes and use of other medical services remains unclear. To examine changes in health outcomes and medical services in the Medicare population after implementation of Part D. Population-level longitudinal time-series analysis with generalized linear models. Community. Nationally representative sample of Medicare beneficiaries (n = 56,293 [unweighted and unique]) from 2000 to 2010. Changes in self-reported health status, limitations in activities of daily living (ADLs) (ADLs and instrumental ADLs), emergency department visits and hospital admissions (prevalence, counts, and spending), and mortality. Medicare claims data were used for confirmatory analyses. Five years after Part D implementation, no clinically or statistically significant reductions in the prevalence of fair or poor health status or limitations in ADLs or instrumental ADLs, relative to historical trends, were detected. Compared with trends before Part D, no changes in emergency department visits, hospital admissions or days, inpatient costs, or mortality after Part D were seen. Confirmatory analyses were consistent. Only total population-level outcomes were studied. Self-reported measures may lack sensitivity. Five years after implementation, and contrary to previous reports, no evidence was found of Part D's effect on a range of population-level health indicators among Medicare enrollees. Further, there was no clear evidence of gains in medical care efficiencies.

  10. Assessing recall in mothers' retrospective reports: concerns over children's speech and language development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russell, Ginny; Miller, Laura L; Ford, Tamsin; Golding, Jean

    2014-01-01

    Retrospective recall about children's symptoms is used to establish early developmental patterns in clinical practice and is also utilised in child psychopathology research. Some studies have indicated that the accuracy of retrospective recall is influenced by life events. Our hypothesis was that an intervention: speech and language therapy, would adversely affect the accuracy of parent recall of early concerns about their child's speech and language development. Mothers (n = 5,390) reported on their child's speech development (child male to female ratio = 50:50) when their children were aged 18 or 30 months, and also reported on these early concerns retrospectively, 10 years later, when their children were 13 years old. Overall reliability of retrospective recall was good, 86 % of respondents accurately recalling their earlier concerns. As hypothesised, however, the speech and language intervention was strongly associated with inaccurate retrospective recall about concerns in the early years (Relative Risk Ratio = 19.03; 95 % CI:14.78-24.48). Attendance at speech therapy was associated with increased recall of concerns that were not reported at the time. The study suggests caution is required when interpreting retrospective reports of abnormal child development as recall may be influenced by intervening events.

  11. Trend analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, M.; Jones, D.R.

    1991-01-01

    The goal of exploration is to find reserves that will earn an adequate rate of return on the capital invested. Neither exploration nor economics is an exact science. The authors must therefore explore in those trends (plays) that have the highest probability of achieving this goal. Trend analysis is a technique for organizing the available data to make these strategic exploration decisions objectively and is in conformance with their goals and risk attitudes. Trend analysis differs from resource estimation in its purpose. It seeks to determine the probability of economic success for an exploration program, not the ultimate results of the total industry effort. Thus the recent past is assumed to be the best estimate of the exploration probabilities for the near future. This information is combined with economic forecasts. The computer software tools necessary for trend analysis are (1) Information data base - requirements and sources. (2) Data conditioning program - assignment to trends, correction of errors, and conversion into usable form. (3) Statistical processing program - calculation of probability of success and discovery size probability distribution. (4) Analytical processing - Monte Carlo simulation to develop the probability distribution of the economic return/investment ratio for a trend. Limited capital (short-run) effects are analyzed using the Gambler's Ruin concept in the Monte Carlo simulation and by a short-cut method. Multiple trend analysis is concerned with comparing and ranking trends, allocating funds among acceptable trends, and characterizing program risk by using risk profiles. In summary, trend analysis is a reality check for long-range exploration planning

  12. Measuring trends in leisure

    OpenAIRE

    Mark Aguiar; Erik Hurst

    2006-01-01

    In this paper, we use five decades of time-use surveys to document trends in the allocation of time. We find that a dramatic increase in leisure time lies behind the relatively stable number of market hours worked (per working-age adult) between 1965 and 2003. Specifically, we show that leisure for men increased by 6-8 hours per week (driven by a decline in market work hours) and for women by 4-8 hours per week (driven by a decline in home production work hours). This increase in leisure corr...

  13. THE TREND AND DYNAMICSDISTRIBUTION OF THE JAKARTASTOCKEXCHANGE(JSXCOMPOSITE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edi Cahyono

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available In thispaperwe discuss the dynamics of the JakartaStock Exchange(JSXComposite.The dynamicsindicatesperformance indicator ofseveral industries inIndonesia.The data ispresented as time series. To predict the dynamicsfrom thedata, however,is still difficult. In general,it is almost impossible to predict suchdynamics for the case of high frequency data. Hence, we do not predict thedynamics. Rather, we seek the trend and the probability density function(pdf.For a ‘small’ periodof time, the pdf isbased on the assumption that the dynamicsis normally distributed. Mathematically speaking, this is a time averaging of data,and in some cases the data is presented in the form of candle sticks. The trend willbe approximated by a higher order polynomial function which is sought byapplying a least square methods. On the other hand, the probability densityfunction of the data within each candle stick is obtained bycomputingstandarddeviation ofthe data with respect to the trend inthe candle stick.

  14. Educational Inequalities in Obesity among Mexican Women: Time-Trends from 1988 to 2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perez Ferrer, Carolina; McMunn, Anne; Rivera Dommarco, Juan A.; Brunner, Eric J.

    2014-01-01

    Background Obesity is one of the leading causes of global morbidity and mortality. Trends in educational inequalities in obesity prevalence among Mexican women have not been analysed systematically to date. Methods Data came from four nationally representative surveys (1988, 1999, 2006, and 2012) of a total of 51 220 non-pregnant women aged 20 to 49. Weight and height were measured during home visits. Education level (higher education, high school, secondary, primary or less) was self-reported. We analysed trends in relative and absolute educational inequalities in obesity prevalence separately for urban and rural areas. Results Nationally, age-standardised obesity prevalence increased from 9.3% to 33.7% over 25 years to 2012. Obesity prevalence was inversely associated with education level in urban areas at all survey waves. In rural areas, obesity prevalence increased markedly but there was no gradient with education level at any survey. The relative index of inequality in urban areas declined over the period (2.87 (95%CI: 1.94, 4.25) in 1988, 1.55 (95%CI: 1.33, 1.80) in 2012, trend pObesity increased 5.92 fold (95%CI: 4.03, 8.70) among urban women with higher education in the period 1988–2012 compared to 3.23 fold (95%CI: 2.88, 3.63) for urban women with primary or no education. The slope index of inequality increased in urban areas from 1988 to 2012. Over 0.5 M cases would be avoided if the obesity prevalence of women with primary or less education was the same as for women with higher education. Conclusions The expected inverse association between education and obesity was observed in urban areas of Mexico. The declining trend in relative educational inequalities in obesity was due to a greater increase in obesity prevalence among higher educated women. In rural areas there was no social gradient in the association between education level and obesity across the four surveys. PMID:24599098

  15. The contributions of risk factor trends and medical care to cardiovascular mortality trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ezzati, Majid; Obermeyer, Ziad; Tzoulaki, Ioanna; Mayosi, Bongani M; Elliott, Paul; Leon, David A

    2016-01-01

    Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and other cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are responsible for an estimated 17.5 million annual deaths in the world. If account is taken of population aging, death rates from CVDs are estimated to be steadily decreasing in the world as a whole, and in regions with reliable trend data. The declines in high-income countries and some countries in Latin America have been ongoing for decades with no indication of slowing. In high-income countries, these positive trends have broadly coincided with, and benefited from, declines in smoking and physiological risk factors like blood pressure and serum cholesterol. Improvements in medical care, including effective primary prevention through management of physiological risk factors, better diagnosis and treatment of acute CVDs, and post-hospital care of those with prior CVDs, are also likely to have contributed to declining CVD event and death rates, especially in the past 40 years. However, the measured risk factor and treatment variables neither explain why the decline began when it did, nor much of the similarities and differences in the start time and rate of the decline across countries or between men and women. There have been sharp changes and fluctuations in CVDs in the former communist countries of Europe and the Soviet Union since the fall of communism in the early 1990s, with changes in volume and patterns of alcohol drinking, as a major cause of the rise in Russia and some other former Soviet countries. The challenge of reaching more definitive conclusions concerning the drivers of what constitutes one of the most remarkable international trends in adult mortality in the past half-century in part reflects the paucity of time trend data not only on disease incidence, risk factors, and clinical care, but also on other potential drivers, including infection and associated inflammatory processes throughout the lifecourse. PMID:26076950

  16. Time trends in pediatric hospitalizations for hepatitis A in Greece (1999–2013): Assessment of the impact of universal infant immunization in 2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papaevangelou, V.; Alexopoulou, Z.; Hadjichristodoulou, C.; Kourlamba, G.; Katsioulis, A.; Theodoridou, K.; Spoulou, V.; Theodoridou, M.

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT Hepatitis A vaccine was introduced in the Greek National Immunization Program in 2008. To estimate possible impact of the universal vaccination implementation, time trends of hospitalizations for hepatitis A at the Infectious Diseases Unit of a Tertiary Pediatric Hospital in Athens during 1999–2013 were analyzed. Hepatitis A hospitalizations were recorded from the discharge database and were expressed as frequencies and rate of annual departmental hospitalizations. Time series analysis (ARIMA) was used to explore trends and the impact of the vaccination. Moreover, changes in patient age, population group distribution and the duration of hospitalization were also examined. Hepatitis A hospitalizations rate significantly decreased between pre-vaccination (1999–2008) and post-vaccination (2009–2013) era from 50.5 to 20.8/1000 hospitalizations (p = 0.005). A 3-year periodicity and a trend of reduction on hepatitis A hospitalizations rates across years were noted. Roma children had significant higher rates of hepatitis A hospitalization, followed by immigrant children. Importantly, possibly due to preceding vaccine availability with considerable uptake in private market and unvaccinated group/pockets of children (Roma), overall vaccination effect was less apparent when compared to data from other countries that implemented universal vaccination. No significant change in patient age, population group distribution, or duration of hospitalization was observed. High risk groups such as Roma children should be targeted for vaccination to reduce future outbreaks. PMID:27141813

  17. Analysis of trends of low flow in river stations in eastern Slovakia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martina Zeleňáková

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The availability of using hypothesis test techniques to identify the long-term trends of hydrological time series is investigated in this study. The aim is to analyse trends of low flows at streams in eastern Slovakia, namely Poprad, Hornád, Bodva, Bodrog river basins. The article presents a methodology for prediction of hydrological drought based on statistical testing of low stream flows by non-parametric statistical test. The main objective is to identify low flow trends in the selected 63 river stations in eastern Slovakia. The stations with human impacts are also evaluated. The Mann-Kendall non-parametric test has been used to detect trends in hydrological time series. Statistically significant trends have been determined from the trend lines for the whole territory of eastern Slovakia. The results indicate that the observed changes in Slovakian river basins do not have a clearly defined trend.

  18. A trending database for human performance events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harrison, D.

    1993-01-01

    An effective Operations Experience program includes a standardized methodology for the investigation of unplanned events and a tool capable of retaining investigation data for the purpose of trending analysis. A database used in conjunction with a formalized investigation procedure for the purpose of trending unplanning event data is described. The database follows the structure of INPO's Human Performance Enhancement System for investigations. The database screens duplicate on-line the HPES evaluation Forms. All information pertaining to investigations is collected, retained and entered into the database using these forms. The database will be used for trending analysis to determine if any significant patterns exist, for tracking progress over time both within AECL and against industry standards, and for evaluating the success of corrective actions. Trending information will be used to help prevent similar occurrences

  19. 6,220 institutionalised people with intellectual disability referred for visual assessment between 1993 and 2003: overview and trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Isterdael, C E D; Stilma, J S; Bezemer, P D; Tijmes, N T

    2006-10-01

    To summarise the results of visual performance tests and other data of institutionalised people with intellectual disability referred to a visual advisory centre (VAC) between 1993 and 2003, and to determine trends in these data. A retrospective medical record review was undertaken of 6,220 consecutive people examined ophthalmologically according to a standard protocol by one VAC that specialised in visual assessment and treatment of people with intellectual disability, between 1993 and 2003. chi2 test for linear trend was used and linear regression coefficients were calculated. The proportion of people aged > or =50 years increased from 19.3% to 34.2% between 1995 and 2003 (pdisability decreased from 80.0% to 52.6% (pvisual impairment or blindness decreased from 70.9% to 22.9% (pvisual disorders decreased from 89.6% to 75.3% (pdisability were identified in 58.4% people; 20.8% had Down's syndrome. Many ocular diagnoses were found, indicating the need for ophthalmological monitoring. Specialised centres are helpful, because assessment and treatment of people with intellectual disability is complicated and time consuming. Protocols for efficient referral will have to be developed. A major task lies ahead to improve the treatment rates of refractive errors, cataract and strabismus, and to find specific causes of intellectual disability.

  20. Neonatal Abstinence Syndrome: Trend and Expenditure in Louisiana Medicaid, 2003-2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okoroh, Ekwutosi M; Gee, Rebekah E; Jiang, Baogong; McNeil, Melissa B; Hardy-Decuir, Beverly A; Zapata, Amy L

    2017-07-01

    Objectives Determine trends in incidence and expenditure for perinatal drug exposure and neonatal abstinence syndrome (NAS) among Louisiana's Medicaid population. We also describe the maternal characteristics of NAS affected infants. Methods Retrospective cohort analysis using linked Medicaid and vital records data from 2003 to 2013. Conducted incidence and cost trends for drug exposed infants with and without NAS. Also performed comparison statistics among drug exposed infants with and without NAS and those not drug exposed. Results As rate of perinatal drug exposure increased, NAS rate per 1000 live Medicaid births also increased, from 2.1 (2003) to 3.6 (2007) to 8.0 (2013) (P for trend Medicaid also increased from $1.3 million to $3.6 million to $8.7 million (P for trend Medicaid infants quadrupled and the cost for caring for the affected infants increased six-fold. Medicaid, as the predominant payer for pregnant women and children affected by substance use disorders, must play a more active role in expanding access to comprehensive substance abuse treatment programs.

  1. Secular trends in pediatric antiretroviral treatment programs in rural and urban Zambia: a retrospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sutcliffe, Catherine G; Bolton-Moore, Carolyn; van Dijk, Janneke H; Cotham, Matt; Tambatamba, Bushimbwa; Moss, William J

    2010-07-30

    Since 2003 pediatric antiretroviral treatment (ART) programs have scaled-up in sub-Saharan Africa and should be evaluated to assess progress and identify areas for improvement. We evaluated secular trends in the characteristics and treatment outcomes of children in three pediatric ART clinics in urban and rural areas in Zambia. Routinely collected data were analyzed from three ART programs in rural (Macha and Mukinge) and urban (Lusaka) Zambia between program implementation and July 2008. Data were obtained from electronic medical record systems and medical record abstraction, and were categorized by year of program implementation. Characteristics of all HIV-infected and exposed children enrolled in the programs and all children initiating treatment were compared by year of implementation. Age decreased and immunologic characteristics improved in all groups over time in both urban and rural clinics, with greater improvement observed in the rural clinics. Among children both eligible and ineligible for ART at clinic enrollment, the majority started treatment within a year. A high proportion of children, particularly those ineligible for ART at clinic enrollment, were lost to follow-up prior to initiating ART. Among children initiating ART, clinical and immunologic outcomes after six months of treatment improved in both urban and rural clinics. In the urban clinics, mortality after six months of treatment declined with program duration, and in the rural clinics, the proportion of children defaulting by six months increased with program duration. Treatment programs are showing signs of progress in the care of HIV-infected children, particularly in the rural clinics where scale-up increased rapidly over the first three years of program implementation. However, continued efforts to optimize care are needed as many children continue to enroll in ART programs at a late stage of disease and thus are not receiving the full benefits of treatment.

  2. Google Trends: Ready for real-time suicide prevention or just a Zeta-Jones effect? An exploratory study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fond, Guillaume; Gaman, Alexandru; Brunel, Lore; Haffen, Emmanuel; Llorca, Pierre-Michel

    2015-08-30

    Two studies have shown that increasing the consultation of the word "suicide" in the Google search engine was associated with a subsequent increase in the prevalence of suicide attempts. The main goal of this article was to explore the trends generated by a key-word search associated with suicide, depression and bipolarity in an attempt to identify general trends (disorders epidemics in the population/"real events" vs newsworthy advertisement/"media event"). Based on previous studies, the frequency of the search words "how to suicide" and "commit suicide" were analyzed for suicide, as well as "depression" (for depressive disorders) and "bipolar disorder". Together, these analyses suggest that the search for the words "how to suicide" or "commit suicide" on the Google search engine may be a good indicator for suicide prevention policies. However, the tool is not developed enough to date to be used as a real time dynamic indicator of suicide epidemics. The frequency of the search for the word "suicide" was associated with those for "depression" but not for "bipolar disorder", but searches for psychiatric conditions seem to be influenced by media events more than by real events in the general population. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Long-term trends at the Boknis Eck time series station (Baltic Sea, 1957–2013: does climate change counteract the decline in eutrophication?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. T. Lennartz

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available The Boknis Eck (BE time series station, initiated in 1957, is one of the longest-operated time series stations worldwide. We present the first statistical evaluation of a data set of nine physical, chemical and biological parameters in the period of 1957–2013. In the past three to five decades, all of the measured parameters underwent significant long-term changes. Most striking is an ongoing decline in bottom water oxygen concentration, despite a significant decrease of nutrient and chlorophyll a concentrations. Temperature-enhanced oxygen consumption in the bottom water and a prolongation of the stratification period are discussed as possible reasons for the ongoing oxygen decline despite declining eutrophication. Observations at the BE station were compared with model output of the Kiel Baltic Sea Ice Ocean Model (BSIOM. Reproduced trends were in good agreement with observed trends for temperature and oxygen, but generally the oxygen concentration at the bottom has been overestimated.

  4. Worldwide incidence of malaria in 2009: estimates, time trends, and a critique of methods.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard E Cibulskis

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Measuring progress towards Millennium Development Goal 6, including estimates of, and time trends in, the number of malaria cases, has relied on risk maps constructed from surveys of parasite prevalence, and on routine case reports compiled by health ministries. Here we present a critique of both methods, illustrated with national incidence estimates for 2009. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We compiled information on the number of cases reported by National Malaria Control Programs in 99 countries with ongoing malaria transmission. For 71 countries we estimated the total incidence of Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax by adjusting the number of reported cases using data on reporting completeness, the proportion of suspects that are parasite-positive, the proportion of confirmed cases due to each Plasmodium species, and the extent to which patients use public sector health facilities. All four factors varied markedly among countries and regions. For 28 African countries with less reliable routine surveillance data, we estimated the number of cases from model-based methods that link measures of malaria transmission with case incidence. In 2009, 98% of cases were due to P. falciparum in Africa and 65% in other regions. There were an estimated 225 million malaria cases (5th-95th centiles, 146-316 million worldwide, 176 (110-248 million in the African region, and 49 (36-68 million elsewhere. Our estimates are lower than other published figures, especially survey-based estimates for non-African countries. CONCLUSIONS: Estimates of malaria incidence derived from routine surveillance data were typically lower than those derived from surveys of parasite prevalence. Carefully interpreted surveillance data can be used to monitor malaria trends in response to control efforts, and to highlight areas where malaria programs and health information systems need to be strengthened. As malaria incidence declines around the world, evaluation of control efforts

  5. Space-time clustering characteristics of tuberculosis in China, 2005-2011.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fei Zhao

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: China is one of the 22 tuberculosis (TB high-burden countries in the world. As TB is a major public health problem in China, spatial analysis could be applied to detect geographic distribution of TB clusters for targeted intervention on TB epidemics. METHODS: Spatial analysis was applied for detecting TB clusters on county-based TB notification data in the national notifiable infectious disease case reporting surveillance system from 2005 to 2011. Two indicators of TB epidemic were used including new sputum smear-positive (SS+ notification rate and total TB notification rate. Global Moran's I by ArcGIS was used to assess whether TB clustering and its trend were significant. SaTScan software that used the retrospective space-time analysis and Possion probability model was utilized to identify geographic areas and time period of potential clusters with notification rates on county-level from 2005 to 2011. RESULTS: Two indicators of TB notification had presented significant spatial autocorrelation globally each year (p<0.01. Global Moran's I of total TB notification rate had positive trend as time went by (t=6.87, p<0.01. The most likely clusters of two indicators had similar spatial distribution and size in the south-central regions of China from 2006 to 2008, and the secondary clusters in two regions: northeastern China and western China. Besides, the secondary clusters of total TB notification rate had two more large clustering centers in Inner Mongolia, Gansu and Qinghai provinces and several smaller clusters in Shanxi, Henan, Hebei and Jiangsu provinces. CONCLUSION: The total TB notification cases clustered significantly in some special areas each year and the clusters trended to aggregate with time. The most-likely and secondary clusters that overlapped among two TB indicators had higher TB burden and risks of TB transmission. These were the focused geographic areas where TB control efforts should be prioritized.

  6. Maternal and neonatal outcomes of antenatal anemia in a Scottish population: a retrospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rukuni, Ruramayi; Bhattacharya, Sohinee; Murphy, Michael F; Roberts, David; Stanworth, Simon J; Knight, Marian

    2016-05-01

    Antenatal anemia is a major public health problem in the UK, yet there is limited high quality evidence for associated poor clinical outcomes. The objectives of this study were to estimate the incidence and clinical outcomes of antenatal anemia in a Scottish population. A retrospective cohort study of 80 422 singleton pregnancies was conducted using data from the Aberdeen Maternal and Neonatal Databank between 1995 and 2012. Antenatal anemia was defined as haemoglobin ≤ 10 g/dl during pregnancy. Incidence was calculated with 95% confidence intervals and compared over time using a chi-squared test for trend. Multivariable logistic regression was used to adjust for confounding variables. Results are presented as adjusted odds ratios with 95% confidence interval. The overall incidence of antenatal anemia was 9.3 cases/100 singleton pregnancies (95% confidence interval 9.1-9.5), decreasing from 16.9/100 to 4.1/100 singleton pregnancies between 1995 and 2012 (p Scottish population. However, given that anemia is a readily correctable risk factor for major causes of morbidity and mortality in the UK, further work is required to investigate appropriate preventive measures. © 2016 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

  7. Temporal Trends in Disease Severity and Predicted Surgical Risk at the Time of Referral for Echocardiography in Patients Diagnosed with Aortic Stenosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ersboll, Mads; Samad, Zainab; Al Enezi, Fawaz

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Calcific aortic stenosis (AS) is the most common underlying pathology in patients undergoing heart valve surgery, with an expected increasing prevalence among the aging population. METHODS AND RESULTS: We identified the temporal trends in referral patterns, disease severity, and assoc......BACKGROUND: Calcific aortic stenosis (AS) is the most common underlying pathology in patients undergoing heart valve surgery, with an expected increasing prevalence among the aging population. METHODS AND RESULTS: We identified the temporal trends in referral patterns, disease severity......, and associated surgical risk among patients with AS between January 1, 1995 and December 31, 2012 at the Duke University Hospital. A total of 6103 patients had a finding of mild (n = 3303), moderate (n = 1648), or severe AS (n = 1152) in a native aortic valve. Overall presence of severe AS increased...... with a finding of severe AS, the proportion of patients aged older than 80 years increased to 51.0% in the most recent time period (2010-2012) compared with 32.6% in the preceding time period (P proportion of patients with a logistic EuroSCORE greater than 20...

  8. Treatment Trends and Outcomes of Small-Cell Carcinoma of the Bladder

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koay, Eugene J. [Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, Texas (United States); MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Teh, Bin S., E-mail: bteh@tmh.org [Methodist Hospital, Houston, Texas (United States); Methodist Hospital Research Institute, Houston, Texas (United States); Paulino, Arnold C.; Butler, E. Brian [Methodist Hospital, Houston, Texas (United States); Methodist Hospital Research Institute, Houston, Texas (United States)

    2012-05-01

    Purpose: Treatment for small-cell carcinoma of the bladder is largely guided by case reports, retrospective reviews, and small prospective trials. This study aimed to study outcomes using a large population-based database. Methods: The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results-Medicare database (1991-2005) was used to analyze how different treatment combinations of specific bladder surgeries, chemotherapy, and radiation affected patient outcomes. Trends in the use of these combinations over time were also analyzed. Results: A total of 533 patients were retrieved from the database. A bladder-sparing approach involving transurethral resection of the bladder tumor (TURBT) combined with chemotherapy and radiation yielded no significant difference in overall survival compared with patients undergoing at least a cystectomy (of whom over 90% received radical cystectomy) with chemotherapy (p > 0.05). The analysis of treatment trends indicated that these two general strategies for cure combined to account for fewer than 20% of patients. A majority of patients (54%) received TURBT as their only surgical treatment, and a subset analysis of these patients indicated that chemotherapy played a role in all stages of disease (p < 0.05) whereas radiation improved overall survival in regional-stage disease (p < 0.05). Conclusion: Relatively few patients with small-cell carcinoma of the bladder receive potentially curative therapies. Chemotherapy should be a major component of treatment. Cystectomy and bladder-sparing approaches represent two viable strategies and deserve further investigation to identify the patients who may benefit from organ preservation or not. In addition, the role of radiation in regional-stage disease should be investigated further, because it positively affects survival after TURBT.

  9. Treatment Trends and Outcomes of Small-Cell Carcinoma of the Bladder

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koay, Eugene J.; Teh, Bin S.; Paulino, Arnold C.; Butler, E. Brian

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: Treatment for small-cell carcinoma of the bladder is largely guided by case reports, retrospective reviews, and small prospective trials. This study aimed to study outcomes using a large population-based database. Methods: The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results–Medicare database (1991–2005) was used to analyze how different treatment combinations of specific bladder surgeries, chemotherapy, and radiation affected patient outcomes. Trends in the use of these combinations over time were also analyzed. Results: A total of 533 patients were retrieved from the database. A bladder-sparing approach involving transurethral resection of the bladder tumor (TURBT) combined with chemotherapy and radiation yielded no significant difference in overall survival compared with patients undergoing at least a cystectomy (of whom over 90% received radical cystectomy) with chemotherapy (p > 0.05). The analysis of treatment trends indicated that these two general strategies for cure combined to account for fewer than 20% of patients. A majority of patients (54%) received TURBT as their only surgical treatment, and a subset analysis of these patients indicated that chemotherapy played a role in all stages of disease (p < 0.05) whereas radiation improved overall survival in regional-stage disease (p < 0.05). Conclusion: Relatively few patients with small-cell carcinoma of the bladder receive potentially curative therapies. Chemotherapy should be a major component of treatment. Cystectomy and bladder-sparing approaches represent two viable strategies and deserve further investigation to identify the patients who may benefit from organ preservation or not. In addition, the role of radiation in regional-stage disease should be investigated further, because it positively affects survival after TURBT.

  10. Changes in time-trends of nutrient intake from fortified and non-fortified food in German children and adolescents--15 year results of the DONALD study. Dortmund Nutritional and Anthropometric Longitudinally Designed Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sichert-Hellert, W; Kersting, M; Manz, F

    2001-04-01

    Although fortified products have played an increasing role in food marketing since the 1980s in Germany, data as to the consumption of fortified food is sparse. To assess long-term data on changes in fortified food supply or consumption patterns, nutrient intake, and time trends in the DONALD Study (Dortmund Nutritional and Anthropometric Longitudinally Designed Study). Between 1985 and 2000 consumption of nutrient intake (total and from fortified foods) was evaluated and time trends in energy and nutrient intake were assessed on the basis of 3-day weighed dietary records (n = 4193) of 2-14 year-old males (n = 383) and females (n = 404) enrolled in the DONALD Study. Nutrient intake was expressed as percentage of the current German recommendations. Food products were defined as fortified if enriched with at least one of the following nutrients: Vitamin A or provitamin A carotenoids (summarised as Vitamin A), Vitamins E, B1, B2, B6, C, niacin, folate, calcium or iron. Nutrient supplements and medicine were excluded from this evaluation. Time trends were analysed using linear and non-linear regression models (PROC MIXED, SAS 6.12). In percent of German references [3], non-fortified food contributed to folate intake by 20-30%, to Vitamin E by about 40%, to Vitamin B1 by 50-65%, to Vitamin A, C, B2, calcium, iron by about 65-95%, and to Vitamin B6 and niacin intake by 100% and more. Fortified food alone provided no more than 5% of calcium intake, about 10-20% of iron, Vitamin A and folate intake, up to 40-50% of Vitamin C, B1, B2, E, niacin and up to 80% of Vitamin B6 intake. During the 15 year period of the DONALD Study with total food, we only found a significant linear time trend for Vitamin C, whereas significant non-linear time trends were found for calcium, Vitamin E, B1, B2, B6, niacin and folate. In the latter there was a uniform increase until 1994 and a decrease thereafter. For iron and Vitamin A no significant time trend could be identified. Only iron and

  11. Speed trends in male distance running.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Timothy N Kruse

    Full Text Available The major cycling "Grand Tours" have shown an attenuation of performance over the last decade. This has been interpreted as circumstantial evidence that newer anti-doping strategies have reduced the use of performance-enhancing drugs. To examine this idea under more controlled conditions, speed trends for world class 5000 m, 10000 m, and marathon performances by men from 1980 to 2013 were analyzed. We obtained comprehensive records from the International Association of Athletics Federations, Association of Road Racing Statisticians, and the Track and Field All-time Performances database webpages. The top 40 performances for each event and year were selected for regression analysis. For the three distances, we noted cumulative performance improvements in the 1990s thru the mid-2000s. After the peak speed years of the mid 2000 s, there has been limited improvement in the 5000 m and 10,000 m and world records set during that time remain in place today, marking the longest period of time between new records since the early 1940s. By contrast marathon speed continues to increase and the world record has been lowered four times since 2007, including in 2013. While the speed trends for 5000 m and 10000 m track results parallel those seen in elite cycling, the marathon trends do not. We discuss a number of explanations other than improved anti-doping strategies that might account for these divergent findings.

  12. Estimating trends in the global mean temperature record

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poppick, Andrew; Moyer, Elisabeth J.; Stein, Michael L.

    2017-06-01

    Given uncertainties in physical theory and numerical climate simulations, the historical temperature record is often used as a source of empirical information about climate change. Many historical trend analyses appear to de-emphasize physical and statistical assumptions: examples include regression models that treat time rather than radiative forcing as the relevant covariate, and time series methods that account for internal variability in nonparametric rather than parametric ways. However, given a limited data record and the presence of internal variability, estimating radiatively forced temperature trends in the historical record necessarily requires some assumptions. Ostensibly empirical methods can also involve an inherent conflict in assumptions: they require data records that are short enough for naive trend models to be applicable, but long enough for long-timescale internal variability to be accounted for. In the context of global mean temperatures, empirical methods that appear to de-emphasize assumptions can therefore produce misleading inferences, because the trend over the twentieth century is complex and the scale of temporal correlation is long relative to the length of the data record. We illustrate here how a simple but physically motivated trend model can provide better-fitting and more broadly applicable trend estimates and can allow for a wider array of questions to be addressed. In particular, the model allows one to distinguish, within a single statistical framework, between uncertainties in the shorter-term vs. longer-term response to radiative forcing, with implications not only on historical trends but also on uncertainties in future projections. We also investigate the consequence on inferred uncertainties of the choice of a statistical description of internal variability. While nonparametric methods may seem to avoid making explicit assumptions, we demonstrate how even misspecified parametric statistical methods, if attuned to the

  13. A discrete wavelet spectrum approach for identifying non-monotonic trends in hydroclimate data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sang, Yan-Fang; Sun, Fubao; Singh, Vijay P.; Xie, Ping; Sun, Jian

    2018-01-01

    The hydroclimatic process is changing non-monotonically and identifying its trends is a great challenge. Building on the discrete wavelet transform theory, we developed a discrete wavelet spectrum (DWS) approach for identifying non-monotonic trends in hydroclimate time series and evaluating their statistical significance. After validating the DWS approach using two typical synthetic time series, we examined annual temperature and potential evaporation over China from 1961-2013 and found that the DWS approach detected both the warming and the warming hiatus in temperature, and the reversed changes in potential evaporation. Further, the identified non-monotonic trends showed stable significance when the time series was longer than 30 years or so (i.e. the widely defined climate timescale). The significance of trends in potential evaporation measured at 150 stations in China, with an obvious non-monotonic trend, was underestimated and was not detected by the Mann-Kendall test. Comparatively, the DWS approach overcame the problem and detected those significant non-monotonic trends at 380 stations, which helped understand and interpret the spatiotemporal variability in the hydroclimatic process. Our results suggest that non-monotonic trends of hydroclimate time series and their significance should be carefully identified, and the DWS approach proposed has the potential for wide use in the hydrological and climate sciences.

  14. Sea-Level Trend Uncertainty With Pacific Climatic Variability and Temporally-Correlated Noise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Royston, Sam; Watson, Christopher S.; Legrésy, Benoît; King, Matt A.; Church, John A.; Bos, Machiel S.

    2018-03-01

    Recent studies have identified climatic drivers of the east-west see-saw of Pacific Ocean satellite altimetry era sea level trends and a number of sea-level trend and acceleration assessments attempt to account for this. We investigate the effect of Pacific climate variability, together with temporally-correlated noise, on linear trend error estimates and determine new time-of-emergence (ToE) estimates across the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Sea-level trend studies often advocate the use of auto-regressive (AR) noise models to adequately assess formal uncertainties, yet sea level often exhibits colored but non-AR(1) noise. Standard error estimates are over- or under-estimated by an AR(1) model for much of the Indo-Pacific sea level. Allowing for PDO and ENSO variability in the trend estimate only reduces standard errors across the tropics and we find noise characteristics are largely unaffected. Of importance for trend and acceleration detection studies, formal error estimates remain on average up to 1.6 times those from an AR(1) model for long-duration tide gauge data. There is an even chance that the observed trend from the satellite altimetry era exceeds the noise in patches of the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans and the south-west and north-east Pacific gyres. By including climate indices in the trend analysis, the time it takes for the observed linear sea-level trend to emerge from the noise reduces by up to 2 decades.

  15. Online Marketing Trends

    OpenAIRE

    Horecká, Ivana

    2015-01-01

    This thesis deals with online marketing trends. Its main goal is to define the latest online marketing trends, create a website with the free online marketing trends, and analyse their effectiveness. The theoretical part brings a thorough description of the latest online marketing trends. Moreover, it provides an insight into the latest trends in the website development. The chosen online marketing trends defined in the theoretical part are subsequently applied on a newly created website. All...

  16. Trends in incidence and in short term survival following a subarachnoid haemorrhage in Scotland, 1986 - 2005: a retrospective cohort study

    OpenAIRE

    Walters Matthew; Briggs Andrew; Redpath Adam; Chalmers Jim WT; Gillies Michelle; Jhund Pardeep S; Lewsey James D; Macpherson Karen J; Langhorne Peter; Capewell Simon; McMurray John JV; MacIntyre Kate

    2011-01-01

    Abstract Background To examine age and sex specific incidence and 30 day case fatality for subarachnoid haemorrhage (SAH) in Scotland over a 20 year period. Methods A retrospective cohort study using routine hospital discharge data linked to death records. Results Between 1986 and 2005, 12,056 individuals experienced an incident SAH. Of these 10,113 (84%) survived to reach hospital. Overall age-standardised incidence rates were greater in women than men and remained relatively stable over the...

  17. Research on trend of warm-humid climate in Central Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gong, Zhi; Peng, Dailiang; Wen, Jingyi; Cai, Zhanqing; Wang, Tiantian; Hu, Yuekai; Ma, Yaxin; Xu, Junfeng

    2017-07-01

    Central Asia is a typical arid area, which is sensitive and vulnerable part of climate changes, at the same time, Central Asia is the Silk Road Economic Belt of the core district, the warm-humid climate change will affect the production and economic development of neighboring countries. The average annual precipitation, average anneal temperature and evapotranspiration are the important indexes to weigh the climate change. In this paper, the annual precipitation, annual average temperature and evapotranspiration data of every pixel point in Central Asia are analyzed by using long-time series remote sensing data to analyze the trend of warm and humid conditions. Finally, using the model to analyzed the distribution of warm-dry trend, the warm-wet trend, the cold-dry trend and the cold-wet trend in Central Asia and Xinjiang area. The results showed that most of the regions of Central Asia were warm-humid and warm-dry trends, but only a small number of regions showed warm-dry and cold-dry trends. It is of great significance to study the climatic change discipline and guarantee the ecological safety and improve the ability to cope with climate change in the region. It also provide scientific basis for the formulation of regional climate change program. The first section in your paper

  18. Trends in the aggressiveness of end-of-life care for Korean pediatric cancer patients who died in 2007-2010.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    June Dong Park

    Full Text Available In light of the Korean Supreme Court's 2009 ruling favoring a patient's right to die with dignity, we evaluated trends in aggressive care in a cohort of pediatric cancer patients. Methods We conducted a population-based retrospective study that used administrative data for patients who died in 2007-2010 among the 5,203 pediatric cancer patients registered at the Korean Cancer Central Registry (KCCR during 2007-2009.In the time period covered, 696 patients died. The proportion who had received chemotherapy in the last 30 days of life decreased from 58.1% to 28.9% (P<0.001, those who received new chemotherapy in the same time period decreased from 55.2% to 15.1% (P<0.001, and those who received treatment in the last 2 weeks of life decreased from 51.4% to 21.7% (P<0.001. In the last 30 days of life, the proportion of patients whose hospital admission period was over 14 days increased from 70.5% to 82.5% (P = 0.03, the proportion who received cardiopulmonary resuscitation decreased from 28.6% to 9.6% (P<0.001, and we found no statistically significant trends in the proportion of emergency department visits, intensive care unit admissions, or mechanical ventilation.In this study, in contrast with earlier ones, the aggressiveness of end-of-life care of Korean pediatric cancer patients decreased dramatically.

  19. National Time Trends in Bullying among Adolescents in the Czech Republic from 1994 to 2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarková, Mária; Sigmundová, Dagmar; Kalman, Michal

    2017-07-01

    Bullying in school is a public health concern which continues to be a serious threat to physical and emotional health of children and adolescents. The purpose of this study is to examine trends in bullying behaviour among school-aged children in the Czech Republic. Data were obtained from cross-sectional self-report surveys in the years 1994-2014 as a part of the Health Behaviour in School-aged Children study (HBSC) from a representative sample of 11-, 13-, and 15-year olds. The highest proportion of children who bullied others (20-47%) occurred during the years 1994 and 1998. The logistic regression models showed significant decreasing trends in bullying others and also in being bullied, regardless of age and gender. The decreasing trend in bullying may be the consequence of a preventive policy in the Czech Republic, but also a change in the understanding of the concept of bullying in society. Copyright© by the National Institute of Public Health, Prague 2017

  20. Road Traffic Injury Trends in the City of Valledupar, Colombia. A Time Series Study from 2008 to 2012.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jorge Martín Rodríguez

    Full Text Available To analyze the behavior temporal of road-traffic injuries (RTI in Valledupar, Colombia from January 2008 to December 2012.An observational study was conducted based on records from the Colombian National Legal Medicine and Forensic Sciences Institute regional office in Valledupar. Different variables were analyzed, such as the injured person's sex, age, education level, and type of road user; the timeframe, place and circumstances of crashes and the vehicles associated with the occurrence. Furthermore, a time series analysis was conducted using an auto-regressive integrated moving average.There were 105 events per month on an average, 64.9% of RTI involved men; 82.3% of the persons injured were from 18 to 59 years of age; the average age was 35.4 years of age; the road users most involved in RTI were motorcyclists (69%, followed by pedestrians (12%. 70% had up to upper-secondary education. Sunday was the day with the most RTI occurrences; 93% of the RTI occurred in the urban area. The time series showed a seasonal pattern and a significant trend effect. The modeling process verified the existence of both memory and extrinsic variables related.An RTI occurrence pattern was identified, which showed an upward trend during the period analyzed. Motorcyclists were the main road users involved in RTI, which suggests the need to design and implement specific measures for that type of road user, from regulations for graduated licensing for young drivers to monitoring road user behavior for the promotion of road safety.

  1. The demise of multidrug-resistant HIV-1: the national time trend in Portugal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vercauteren, Jurgen; Theys, Kristof; Carvalho, Ana Patricia; Valadas, Emília; Duque, Luis Miguel; Teófilo, Eugénio; Faria, Telo; Faria, Domitília; Vera, José; Águas, Maria João; Peres, Susana; Mansinho, Kamal; Vandamme, Anne-Mieke; Camacho, Ricardo Jorge; Mansinho, Kamal; Cláudia Miranda, Ana; Aldir, Isabel; Ventura, Fernando; Nina, Jaime; Borges, Fernando; Valadas, Emília; Doroana, Manuela; Antunes, Francisco; João Aleixo, Maria; João Águas, Maria; Botas, Júlio; Branco, Teresa; Vera, José; Vaz Pinto, Inês; Poças, José; Sá, Joana; Duque, Luis; Diniz, António; Mineiro, Ana; Gomes, Flora; Santos, Carlos; Faria, Domitília; Fonseca, Paula; Proença, Paula; Tavares, Luís; Guerreiro, Cristina; Narciso, Jorge; Faria, Telo; Teófilo, Eugénio; Pinheiro, Sofia; Germano, Isabel; Caixas, Umbelina; Faria, Nancy; Paula Reis, Ana; Bentes Jesus, Margarida; Amaro, Graça; Roxo, Fausto; Abreu, Ricardo; Neves, Isabel

    2013-01-01

    Objectives Despite a decreasing mortality and morbidity in treated HIV-1 patients, highly active antiretroviral treatment (HAART) can still fail due to the development of drug resistance. Especially, multidrug-resistant viruses pose a threat to efficient therapy. We studied the changing prevalence of multidrug resistance (MDR) over time in a cohort of HIV-1-infected patients in Portugal. Patients and methods We used data of 8065 HIV-1-infected patients followed from July 2001 up to April 2012 in 22 hospitals located in Portugal. MDR at a specific date of sampling was defined as no more than one fully active drug (excluding integrase and entry inhibitors) at that time authorized by the Portuguese National Authority of Medicines and Health Products (INFARMED), as interpreted with the Rega algorithm version 8.0.2. A generalized linear mixed model was used to study the time trend of the prevalence of MDR. Results We observed a statistically significant decrease in the prevalence of MDR over the last decade, from 6.9% (95% CI: 5.7–8.4) in 2001–03, 6.0% (95% CI: 4.9–7.2) in 2003–05, 3.7% (95% CI: 2.8–4.8) in 2005–07 and 1.6% (95% CI: 1.1–2.2) in 2007–09 down to 0.6% (95% CI: 0.3–0.9) in 2009–12 [OR = 0.80 (95% CI: 0.75–0.86); P < 0.001]. In July 2011 the last new case of MDR was seen. Conclusions The prevalence of multidrug-resistant HIV-1 is decreasing over time in Portugal, reflecting the increasing efficiency of HAART and the availability of new drugs. Therefore, in designing a new drug, safety and practical aspects, e.g. less toxicity and ease of use, may need more attention than focusing mainly on efficacy against resistant strains. PMID:23228933

  2. Modeling pollen time series using seasonal-trend decomposition procedure based on LOESS smoothing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rojo, Jesús; Rivero, Rosario; Romero-Morte, Jorge; Fernández-González, Federico; Pérez-Badia, Rosa

    2017-02-01

    Analysis of airborne pollen concentrations provides valuable information on plant phenology and is thus a useful tool in agriculture-for predicting harvests in crops such as the olive and for deciding when to apply phytosanitary treatments-as well as in medicine and the environmental sciences. Variations in airborne pollen concentrations, moreover, are indicators of changing plant life cycles. By modeling pollen time series, we can not only identify the variables influencing pollen levels but also predict future pollen concentrations. In this study, airborne pollen time series were modeled using a seasonal-trend decomposition procedure based on LOcally wEighted Scatterplot Smoothing (LOESS) smoothing (STL). The data series-daily Poaceae pollen concentrations over the period 2006-2014-was broken up into seasonal and residual (stochastic) components. The seasonal component was compared with data on Poaceae flowering phenology obtained by field sampling. Residuals were fitted to a model generated from daily temperature and rainfall values, and daily pollen concentrations, using partial least squares regression (PLSR). This method was then applied to predict daily pollen concentrations for 2014 (independent validation data) using results for the seasonal component of the time series and estimates of the residual component for the period 2006-2013. Correlation between predicted and observed values was r = 0.79 (correlation coefficient) for the pre-peak period (i.e., the period prior to the peak pollen concentration) and r = 0.63 for the post-peak period. Separate analysis of each of the components of the pollen data series enables the sources of variability to be identified more accurately than by analysis of the original non-decomposed data series, and for this reason, this procedure has proved to be a suitable technique for analyzing the main environmental factors influencing airborne pollen concentrations.

  3. Observing climate change trends in ocean biogeochemistry: when and where.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henson, Stephanie A; Beaulieu, Claudie; Lampitt, Richard

    2016-04-01

    Understanding the influence of anthropogenic forcing on the marine biosphere is a high priority. Climate change-driven trends need to be accurately assessed and detected in a timely manner. As part of the effort towards detection of long-term trends, a network of ocean observatories and time series stations provide high quality data for a number of key parameters, such as pH, oxygen concentration or primary production (PP). Here, we use an ensemble of global coupled climate models to assess the temporal and spatial scales over which observations of eight biogeochemically relevant variables must be made to robustly detect a long-term trend. We find that, as a global average, continuous time series are required for between 14 (pH) and 32 (PP) years to distinguish a climate change trend from natural variability. Regional differences are extensive, with low latitudes and the Arctic generally needing shorter time series (ocean surface. Our results present a quantitative framework for assessing the adequacy of current and future ocean observing networks for detection and monitoring of climate change-driven responses in the marine ecosystem. © 2016 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  4. Temporal trends in physical activity: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knuth, Alan G; Hallal, Pedro C

    2009-09-01

    In spite of all accumulated scientific knowledge on the benefits of physical activity (PA) for health, high rates of sedentary lifestyle are still observed worldwide. The aim of this study was to systematically review articles on temporal trends of PA and fitness, with emphasis on differences between children/ adolescents and adults. An electronic search at the Medline/PubMed database was carried out using the following combination of keywords: temporal trends or trends or surveillance or monitoring and PA or exercise or physical fitness or motor activity or sedentary or fitness. By using this strategy, 23,088 manuscripts were detected. After examination, 41 articles fulfilled all inclusion criteria, and were, therefore, included. The data currently available in the literature for adults shows that leisure-time activity levels tend to be increasing over time, while occupational-related PA is decreasing over time. Youth PA seems to be decreasing over time, including a lower level of activity in physical education classes. As a consequence, fitness levels are also declining. PA surveillance must be strongly encouraged in all settings and age groups. Special attention must be paid to low and middle-income countries, where PA surveillance is virtually inexistent.

  5. Global trends in the awareness of sepsis: insights from search engine data between 2012 and 2017.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jabaley, Craig S; Blum, James M; Groff, Robert F; O'Reilly-Shah, Vikas N

    2018-01-17

    Sepsis is an established global health priority with high mortality that can be curtailed through early recognition and intervention; as such, efforts to raise awareness are potentially impactful and increasingly common. We sought to characterize trends in the awareness of sepsis by examining temporal, geographic, and other changes in search engine utilization for sepsis information-seeking online. Using time series analyses and mixed descriptive methods, we retrospectively analyzed publicly available global usage data reported by Google Trends (Google, Palo Alto, CA, USA) concerning web searches for the topic of sepsis between 24 June 2012 and 24 June 2017. Google Trends reports aggregated and de-identified usage data for its search products, including interest over time, interest by region, and details concerning the popularity of related queries where applicable. Outlying epochs of search activity were identified using autoregressive integrated moving average modeling with transfer functions. We then identified awareness campaigns and news media coverage that correlated with epochs of significantly heightened search activity. A second-order autoregressive model with transfer functions was specified following preliminary outlier analysis. Nineteen significant outlying epochs above the modeled baseline were identified in the final analysis that correlated with 14 awareness and news media events. Our model demonstrated that the baseline level of search activity increased in a nonlinear fashion. A recurrent cyclic increase in search volume beginning in 2012 was observed that correlates with World Sepsis Day. Numerous other awareness and media events were correlated with outlying epochs. The average worldwide search volume for sepsis was less than that of influenza, myocardial infarction, and stroke. Analyzing aggregate search engine utilization data has promise as a mechanism to measure the impact of awareness efforts. Heightened information-seeking about sepsis

  6. Trends in Infective Endocarditis in California and New York State, 1998-2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toyoda, Nana; Chikwe, Joanna; Itagaki, Shinobu; Gelijns, Annetine C; Adams, David H; Egorova, Natalia N

    2017-04-25

    Prophylaxis and treatment guidelines for infective endocarditis have changed substantially over the past decade. In the United States, few population-based studies have explored the contemporary epidemiology and outcomes of endocarditis. To quantify trends in the incidence and etiologies of infective endocarditis in the United States. Retrospective population epidemiology study of patients hospitalized with a first episode of endocarditis identified from mandatory state databases in California and New York State between January 1, 1998, and December 31, 2013. Infective endocarditis. Outcomes were crude and standardized incidence of endocarditis and trends in patient characteristics and disease etiology. Trends in acquisition mode, organism, and mortality were analyzed. Among 75 829 patients with first episodes of endocarditis (mean [SD] age, 62.3 [18.9] years; 59.1% male), the standardized annual incidence was stable between 7.6 (95% CI, 7.4 to 7.9) and 7.8 (95% CI, 7.6 to 8.0) cases per 100 000 persons (annual percentage change [APC], -0.06%; 95% CI, -0.3% to 0.2%; P = .59). From 1998 through 2013, the proportion of patients with native-valve endocarditis decreased (from 74.5% to 68.4%; APC, -0.7%; 95% CI, -0.9% to -0.5%; P endocarditis increased (from 12.0% to 13.8%; APC, 1.3%; 95% CI, 0.8% to 1.7%; P endocarditis increased (from 1.3% to 4.1%; APC, 8.8%; 95% CI, 7.8% to 9.9%; P endocarditis decreased (from 17.7% to 15.3%; APC, -1.0%; 95% CI, -1.4% to -0.7%; P endocarditis increased (from 32.1% to 35.9%; APC, 0.8%; 95% CI, 0.5% to 1.1%; P endocarditis did not increase (unadjusted: APC, -0.1%; 95% CI, -0.8% to 0.6%; P = .77; adjusted: APC, -1.3%; 95% CI, -1.8% to -0.7%; P endocarditis was stable from 1998 through 2013, with changes in patient characteristics and etiology over this time.

  7. Radiotherapy in stage 1 testicular seminoma: retrospective study and review of literature; Radiotherapie des seminomes testiculaires de stade 1: etude retrospective et revue de la litterature

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bauduceau, O.; Le-Moulec, S.; Bernard, O. [Hopital des Armees du Val-de-Grace, Service de Radiotherapie et Oncologie, 75 - Paris (France); Souleau, B. [Hopital des Armees Percy, Service d' Hematologie, 92 - Clamart (France); Houlgatte, A. [Hopital des Armees du Val-de-Grace, Service d' Urologie, 75 - Paris (France)

    2003-12-01

    Introduction. - Seminoma accounts for about 40% of germ cell tumours of the testicle. In this retrospective analysis, we review literature concerning management of stage I seminoma. Materials and methods. - Between March 1987 and April 2001, 65 patients with stage I pure testicular seminoma received adjuvant radiotherapy with a 25 MV linear accelerator. Results. - Median age was 33 years. Testicular tumour has been found on the right testis in 39 patients and on the left one in 24 patients. Patients have been treated using an anterior-posterior parallel pair and have received 20-25 Gy in 10-14 fractions. The target volume consisted of paraaortic, and paraaortic + homolateral iliac lymph nodes in 17 and 46 patients, respectively. Acute toxicity was mainly digestive, 38% of patients presenting nausea and vomiting. Median follow-up time was 37 months. All patients are alive in complete remission. Discussion. - Because of good radio-sensitivity of seminoma, radiotherapy is regarded as standard adjuvant treatment (5 years relapse rate: 3-5%). Acute toxicity is dominated by moderate gastro-intestinal side effects. Secondary neoplasia represents one of the worst possible long-term complications of therapy. Waiting for ongoing randomized trials, the modern literature for seminoma reflects a trend toward lower radiation doses (20-25 Gy) and smaller treatment volumes (paraaortic field). Adjuvant chemotherapy with two courses of carbo-platin, might be equivalent to radiotherapy but must be investigated in randomized trials. A surveillance policy is one of the other management options less recommended. (author)

  8. Who is using snus? - Time trends, socioeconomic and geographic characteristics of snus users in the ageing Swedish population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Norberg Margareta

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The prevalence of smoking in Sweden has decreased in recent decades, and is now among the lowest in the world. During the same period, the use of Swedish moist oral snuff, a smokeless tobacco called snus, has increased. Few studies have evaluated time trends of the socioeconomic and geographic characteristics of snus users in Sweden. This paper contributes to filling that gap. Methods This study utilized the Linnaeus Database, which links national registers with comprehensive individual data on socioeconomic status (SES to health data from a large ongoing health survey, the Västerbotten Intervention Programme (VIP. The VIP targets the entire middle-aged population of Västerbotten county at ages 40, 50 and 60 years with yearly cross-sectional surveys including self-reported data on tobacco habits. Time trends of snus use among 92,563 VIP-participants across different areas of residence and smoking groups were investigated graphically. Logistic regression was performed to estimate the associations between SES and geographical variables and current use versus non-use of snus. Results Overall, in parallel to decreasing smoking, the increasing trend of snus use in this middle-aged population continues, particularly in 40-year-olds. In both genders, the highest prevalence of snus use was observed among previous smokers. The prevalence of snus use also increased over time among smokers, and was consistently higher compared to those who had never smoked. Among males - both those who had never smoked and previous smokers - low education (OR 1.21, 95%CI 1.06-1.40 and OR 1.28, 95%CI 1.14-1.43, living alone (OR 1.16, 95%CI 1.07-1.27 and OR 1.13, 95%ci 1.04-1.23, low income and living in rural areas was associated with using snus, while this was not seen among male current smokers. Among women, living alone was associated with using snus irrespective of smoking habits. Among female smokers, the OR for snus use increased with higher

  9. Pathological features of Breast Cancer seen in Northwestern Tanzania: a nine years retrospective study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manyama Mange M

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Breast cancer is more common in Western Countries compared to African populations. However in African population, it appears that the disease tends to be more aggressive and occurring at a relatively young age at the time of presentation. The aim of this study was to describe the trend of Breast Cancer in Northwestern Tanzania. Methods This was a retrospective study which involved all cases of breast cancer diagnosed histologically at Bugando Medical Center from 2002 to 2010. Histological results and slides were retrieved from the records in the Pathology department, clinical information and demographic data for patients were retrieved from surgical wards and department of medical records. Histology slides were re-evaluated for the histological type, grade (By modified Bloom-Richardson score, and presence of necrosis and skin involvement. Data was entered and analyzed by SPSS computer software version 15. Findings There were 328 patients histologically confirmed to have breast cancer, the mean age at diagnosis was 48.7 years (+/- 13.1. About half of the patients (52.4% were below 46 years of age, and this group of patients had significantly higher tendency for lymph node metastasis (p = 0.012. The tumor size ranged from 1 cm to 18 cm in diameter with average (mean of 5.5 cm (+/- 2.5, and median size of 6 cm. Size of the tumor (above 6 cm in diameter and presence of necrosis within the tumor was significantly associated with high rate of lymph node metastasis (p = 0.000. Of all patients, 64% were at clinical stage III (specifically IIIB and 70.4% had lymph node metastasis at the time of diagnosis. Only 4.3% of the patients were in clinical stage I at the time of diagnosis. Majority of the patients had invasive ductal carcinoma (91.5% followed by mucinous carcinoma (5.2%, Invasive lobular carcinoma (3% and in situ ductal carcinoma (0.3%. In all patients, 185 (56.4% had tumor with histological grade 3. Conclusion Breast cancer

  10. Sea level trends in Southeast Asian seas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strassburg, M. W.; Hamlington, B. D.; Leben, R. R.; Manurung, P.; Lumban Gaol, J.; Nababan, B.; Vignudelli, S.; Kim, K.-Y.

    2015-05-01

    Southeast Asian seas span the largest archipelago in the global ocean and provide a complex oceanic pathway connecting the Pacific and Indian oceans. The Southeast Asian sea regional sea level trends are some of the highest observed in the modern satellite altimeter record that now spans almost 2 decades. Initial comparisons of global sea level reconstructions find that 17-year sea level trends over the past 60 years exhibit good agreement with decadal variability associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and related fluctuations of trade winds in the region. The Southeast Asian sea region exhibits sea level trends that vary dramatically over the studied time period. This historical variation suggests that the strong regional sea level trends observed during the modern satellite altimeter record will abate as trade winds fluctuate on decadal and longer timescales. Furthermore, after removing the contribution of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) to sea level trends in the past 20 years, the rate of sea level rise is greatly reduced in the Southeast Asian sea region. As a result of the influence of the PDO, the Southeast Asian sea regional sea level trends during the 2010s and 2020s are likely to be less than the global mean sea level (GMSL) trend if the observed oscillations in wind forcing and sea level persist. Nevertheless, long-term sea level trends in the Southeast Asian seas will continue to be affected by GMSL rise occurring now and in the future.

  11. Trend Analysis of Soil Salinity in Different Land Cover Types Using Landsat Time Series Data (case Study Bakhtegan Salt Lake)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taghadosi, M. M.; Hasanlou, M.

    2017-09-01

    Soil salinity is one of the main causes of desertification and land degradation which has negative impacts on soil fertility and crop productivity. Monitoring salt affected areas and assessing land cover changes, which caused by salinization, can be an effective approach to rehabilitate saline soils and prevent further salinization of agricultural fields. Using potential of satellite imagery taken over time along with remote sensing techniques, makes it possible to determine salinity changes at regional scales. This study deals with monitoring salinity changes and trend of the expansion in different land cover types of Bakhtegan Salt Lake district during the last two decades using multi-temporal Landsat images. For this purpose, per-pixel trend analysis of soil salinity during years 2000 to 2016 was performed and slope index maps of the best salinity indicators were generated for each pixel in the scene. The results of this study revealed that vegetation indices (GDVI and EVI) and also salinity indices (SI-1 and SI-3) have great potential to assess soil salinity trends in vegetation and bare soil lands respectively due to more sensitivity to salt features over years of study. In addition, images of May had the best performance to highlight changes in pixels among different months of the year. A comparative analysis of different slope index maps shows that more than 76% of vegetated areas have experienced negative trends during 17 years, of which about 34% are moderately and highly saline. This percent is increased to 92% for bare soil lands and 29% of salt affected soils had severe salinization. It can be concluded that the areas, which are close to the lake, are more affected by salinity and salts from the lake were brought into the soil which will lead to loss of soil productivity ultimately.

  12. Level and Temporal Trend of Perfluoroalkyl Acids in Greenlandic Inuit

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Long, Manhai; Bossi, Rossana; Bonefeld-Jørgensen, Eva Cecilie

    bears. However, until now, no data have been reported for PFAAs in Greenlandic Inuit. This study assesses the level and temporal trend of serum PFAAs in Greenlandic Inuit. Study design: Cross-section and temporal time trend survey. Methods: Serum PFAA levels were determined in 284 Inuit from different...... Greenlandic districts using liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry with electrospray ionization. The temporal time trend of serum PFAAs in Nuuk Inuit during 19982005 and the correlation between serum PFAAs and legacy persistent organic pollutants (POPs) were explored. Results: Serum PFAA levels were...... higher in Nuuk Inuit than in non-Nuuk Inuit. Within the same district, higher PFAA levels were observed for males. An age-dependent, increasing trend of serum PFAA levels in the period from 19982005 was observed for Nuuk Inuit. For the pooled gender data, no significant association between PFAAs...

  13. Level and temporal trend of perfluoroalkyl acids in Greenlandic Inuit

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Long, Manhai; Bossi, Rossana; Bonefeld-Jørgensen, Eva Cecilie

    2012-01-01

    bears. However, until now, no data have been reported for PFAAs in Greenlandic Inuit. This study assesses the level and temporal trend of serum PFAAs in Greenlandic Inuit. Study design: Cross-section and temporal time trend survey. Methods: Serum PFAA levels were determined in 284 Inuit from different...... Greenlandic districts using liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry with electrospray ionization. The temporal time trend of serum PFAAs in Nuuk Inuit during 19982005 and the correlation between serum PFAAs and legacy persistent organic pollutants (POPs) were explored. Results: Serum PFAA levels were...... higher in Nuuk Inuit than in non-Nuuk Inuit. Within the same district, higher PFAA levels were observed for males. An age-dependent, increasing trend of serum PFAA levels in the period from 19982005 was observed for Nuuk Inuit. For the pooled gender data, no significant association between PFAAs...

  14. Aircraft emission inventories for scheduled air traffic for the 1976-92 time period. Historical trends

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baughcum, S L; Henderson, S C; Tritz, T G [Boeing Co., Seattle, WA (United States)

    1998-12-31

    Emission inventories of fuel burned, NO{sub x}, CO, and hydrocarbons have been calculated for scheduled air traffic in 1976, 1984, 1990 and 1992 on a 1 deg latitude x 1 deg longitude x 1 km pressure altitude grid. Using this database, the seasonal variation and historical trends in aircraft emissions have been calculated for selected geographical regions (e.g., North Atlantic, Europe, North America, North Pacific). The trend in emissions is a combination of the effects of passenger demand growth, improved aircraft efficiency, changes in combustor characteristics, and aircraft size. (author) 8 refs.

  15. Aircraft emission inventories for scheduled air traffic for the 1976-92 time period. Historical trends

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baughcum, S.L.; Henderson, S.C.; Tritz, T.G. [Boeing Co., Seattle, WA (United States)

    1997-12-31

    Emission inventories of fuel burned, NO{sub x}, CO, and hydrocarbons have been calculated for scheduled air traffic in 1976, 1984, 1990 and 1992 on a 1 deg latitude x 1 deg longitude x 1 km pressure altitude grid. Using this database, the seasonal variation and historical trends in aircraft emissions have been calculated for selected geographical regions (e.g., North Atlantic, Europe, North America, North Pacific). The trend in emissions is a combination of the effects of passenger demand growth, improved aircraft efficiency, changes in combustor characteristics, and aircraft size. (author) 8 refs.

  16. A discrete wavelet spectrum approach for identifying non-monotonic trends in hydroclimate data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y.-F. Sang

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The hydroclimatic process is changing non-monotonically and identifying its trends is a great challenge. Building on the discrete wavelet transform theory, we developed a discrete wavelet spectrum (DWS approach for identifying non-monotonic trends in hydroclimate time series and evaluating their statistical significance. After validating the DWS approach using two typical synthetic time series, we examined annual temperature and potential evaporation over China from 1961–2013 and found that the DWS approach detected both the warming and the warming hiatus in temperature, and the reversed changes in potential evaporation. Further, the identified non-monotonic trends showed stable significance when the time series was longer than 30 years or so (i.e. the widely defined climate timescale. The significance of trends in potential evaporation measured at 150 stations in China, with an obvious non-monotonic trend, was underestimated and was not detected by the Mann–Kendall test. Comparatively, the DWS approach overcame the problem and detected those significant non-monotonic trends at 380 stations, which helped understand and interpret the spatiotemporal variability in the hydroclimatic process. Our results suggest that non-monotonic trends of hydroclimate time series and their significance should be carefully identified, and the DWS approach proposed has the potential for wide use in the hydrological and climate sciences.

  17. Acute upper GI bleeding: Did anything change? Time trend analysis of incidence and outcome of acute upper GI bleeding between 1993/1994 and 2000

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Leerdam, M. E.; Vreeburg, E. M.; Rauws, E. A. J.; Geraedts, A. A. M.; Tijssen, J. G. P.; Reitsma, J. B.; Tytgat, G. N. J.

    2003-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to examine recent time trends in incidence and outcome of upper GI bleeding. METHODS: Prospective data collection on all patients presenting with acute upper GI bleeding from a defined geographical area in the period 1993/1994 and 2000. RESULTS: Incidence

  18. Wound center facility billing: A retrospective analysis of time, wound size, and acuity scoring for determining facility level of service.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fife, Caroline E; Walker, David; Farrow, Wade; Otto, Gordon

    2007-01-01

    Outpatient wound center facility reimbursement for Medicare beneficiaries can be a challenge to determine and obtain. To compare methods of calculating facility service levels for outpatient wound centers and to demonstrate the advantages of an acuity-based billing system (one that incorporates components of facility work that is non-reimbursable by procedure codes and that represents an activity-based costing approach to medical billing), a retrospective study of 5,098 patient encounters contained in a wound care-specific electronic medical record database was conducted. Approximately 500 patient visits to the outpatient wound center of a Texas regional hospital between April 2003 and November 2004 were categorized by service level in documentation and facility management software. Visits previously billed using a time-based system were compared to the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services' proposed three-tiered wound size-based system. The time-based system also was compared to an acuity-based scoring system. The Pearson correlation coefficient between billed level of service by time and estimated level of service by acuity was 0.442 and the majority of follow-up visits were billed as Level 3 and above (on a time level of 1 to 5) , confirming that time is not a surrogate for actual work performed. Wound size also was found to be unrelated to service level (Pearson correlation = 0.017) and 97% of wound areas were billings than extremes; no other method produced this distribution. Hospital-based outpatient wound centers should develop, review, and refine acuity score-based models on which to determine billed level of service.

  19. Trends in hypothesis testing and related variables in nursing research: a retrospective exploratory study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lash, Ayhan Aytekin; Plonczynski, Donna J; Sehdev, Amikar

    2011-01-01

    To compare the inclusion and the influences of selected variables on hypothesis testing during the 1980s and 1990s. In spite of the emphasis on conducting inquiry consistent with the tenets of logical positivism, there have been no studies investigating the frequency and patterns of hypothesis testing in nursing research The sample was obtained from the journal Nursing Research which was the research journal with the highest circulation during the study period under study. All quantitative studies published during the two decades including briefs and historical studies were included in the analyses A retrospective design was used to select the sample. Five years from the 1980s and 1990s each were randomly selected from the journal, Nursing Research. Of the 582 studies, 517 met inclusion criteria. Findings suggest that there has been a decline in the use of hypothesis testing in the last decades of the 20th century. Further research is needed to identify the factors that influence the conduction of research with hypothesis testing. Hypothesis testing in nursing research showed a steady decline from the 1980s to 1990s. Research purposes of explanation, and prediction/ control increased the likelihood of hypothesis testing. Hypothesis testing strengthens the quality of the quantitative studies, increases the generality of findings and provides dependable knowledge. This is particularly true for quantitative studies that aim to explore, explain and predict/control phenomena and/or test theories. The findings also have implications for doctoral programmes, research preparation of nurse-investigators, and theory testing.

  20. A Bottom-up Trend in Research of Management of Technology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yoko Ishino

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Management of Technology (MOT is defined as an academic discipline of management that enables organizations to manage their technological fundamentals to create competitive advantage. MOT covers a wide range of contents including administrative strategy, R&D management, manufacturing management, technology transfer, production control, marketing, accounting, finance, business ethics, and others. For each topic, researchers have conducted their MOT research at various levels. However, a practical and pragmatic side of MOT surely affects its research trends. Finding changes of MOT research trends, or the chronological transitions of principal subjects, can help understand the key concepts of current MOT. This paper studied a bottom-up trend in research fields in MOT by applying a text-mining method to the conference proceedings of IAMOT (International Association for Management of Technology. First, focusing on only nouns found several keywords, which more frequently emerge over time in the IAMOT proceedings. Then, expanding the scope into other parts of speech viewed the keywords in a natural context. Finally, it was found that the use of an important keyword has qualitatively and quantitatively extended over time. In conclusion, a bottom-up trend in MOT research was detected and the effects of the social situation on the trend were discussed.Keywords: Management of Technology; Text Mining; Research Trend; Bottom-up Trend; Patent

  1. Trends in Type of Original Psoriasis Publications by Decade, 1960 to 2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sako, Eric; Famenini, Shannon; Wu, Jashin J

    2016-01-01

    Research investigating psoriasis has spanned decades, and as our understanding of the disease has evolved, the focus of publications has changed. We sought to characterize the trends in original psoriasis-related research from 1960 to 2010 chronologically by decade. A literature review was performed using the keyword psoriasis in the MEDLINE database. All original psoriasis-related articles published at the beginning of each decade were searched and categorized by study type and topic. Number of articles per topic. A total of 869 original psoriasis-related articles were found. The number of publications increased 18 fold over 5 decades. The immunology and pathogenesis of psoriasis was the most frequently researched topic (36%), and retrospective studies were the most common study type (37%). Recent highly published topics included biologic therapy, genetics, and psoriasis-associated cardiovascular disease. Original psoriasis-related publications have grown substantially since 1960. Basic science research into the immunology and pathogenesis has been and continues to be the mainstay of psoriasis research. Recent research trends suggest the focus has expanded to topics such as psoriasis-associated cardiovascular disease, genetics, and biologic therapy.

  2. Attribution of trends in global vegetation greenness from 1982 to 2011

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Z.; Xu, L.; Bi, J.; Myneni, R.; Knyazikhin, Y.

    2012-12-01

    Time series of remotely sensed vegetation indices data provide evidence of changes in terrestrial vegetation activity over the past decades in the world. However, it is difficult to attribute cause-and-effect to vegetation trends because variations in vegetation productivity are driven by various factors. This study investigated changes in global vegetation productivity first, and then attributed the global natural vegetation with greening trend. Growing season integrated normalized difference vegetation index (GSI NDVI) derived from the new GIMMS NDVI3g dataset (1982-2011was analyzed. A combined time series analysis model, which was developed from simper linear trend model (SLT), autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) and Vogelsang's t-PST model shows that productivity of all vegetation types except deciduous broadleaf forest predominantly showed increasing trends through the 30-year period. The evolution of changes in productivity in the last decade was also investigated. Area of greening vegetation monotonically increased through the last decade, and both the browning and no change area monotonically decreased. To attribute the predominant increase trend of productivity of global natural vegetation, trends of eight climate time series datasets (three temperature, three precipitation and two radiation datasets) were analyzed. The attribution of trends in global vegetation greenness was summarized as relaxation of climatic constraints, fertilization and other unknown reasons. Result shows that nearly all the productivity increase of global natural vegetation was driven by relaxation of climatic constraints and fertilization, which play equally important role in driving global vegetation greenness.; Area fraction and productivity change fraction of IGBP vegetation land cover classes showing statistically significant (10% level) trend in GSI NDVIt;

  3. Timing of Physical Therapy Referral in Adolescent Athletes With Acute Spondylolysis: A Retrospective Chart Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selhorst, Mitchell; Fischer, Anastasia; Graft, Kristine; Ravindran, Reno; Peters, Eric; Rodenberg, Richard; Welder, Eric; MacDonald, James

    2017-05-01

    The purposes of this study were (1) to determine whether the duration of rest before referral to physical therapy (PT) affects the time to make a full return to activity for patients with an acute spondylolysis, (2) to assess the safety of an early referral to PT in patients with an acute spondylolysis. Retrospective chart review. Hospital-based sports medicine clinic. The medical charts of 196 adolescent athletes (mean age = 14.3 ± 1.8 years) with an acute spondylolytic injury met the inclusion criteria and were reviewed. Patients were subgrouped based on physician referral to PT. An aggressive referral group (10 weeks). Duration of rest before clearance to a full return to activity and the frequency of adverse reactions during the course of treatment. Safety was assessed by calculating the risk of experiencing an adverse reaction in each group. Median days to a full return to activity for aggressive referral group (115.5 days, interquartile range 98-150 days) and conservative referral group (140.0 days, interquartile range 114.5-168 days) were significantly different (P = 0.002). Eleven patients had adverse reactions during the course of treatment. The risk of adverse reaction was not statistically significant between groups (P = 0.509). Patients with acute spondylolysis in the aggressive referral group were able to make a full return activity almost 25 days sooner. No differences in the risk of adverse reactions were noted between aggressive and conservative referral groups.

  4. Trends in U.S. food prices, 1950-2007.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christian, Thomas; Rashad, Inas

    2009-03-01

    The potential effect that food prices may have on the health of the U.S. population needs to be further explored, particularly in light of the rising food prices currently being observed. Declining food prices over time have been singled out as a main contributor, for example, to the rising trend in obesity. In this paper we use data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the American Chamber of Commerce Researchers Association, the Consumer Expenditure Survey, and the United States Department of Agriculture to analyze trends in various types of food prices, to create a food price index, and to estimate the price of a calorie. Results may be used by future researchers in estimating the health implications of these trends. We find that while the general trend in food prices has been declining, that of restaurant meal prices and prices of fruits and vegetables has risen over time. It is doubtful that the decline in food prices has been sufficiently large to account for the large increase in caloric intake that is said to have contributed to the obesity epidemic in the U.S.

  5. Effect of Ebola virus disease on maternal and child health services in Guinea: a retrospective observational cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delamou, Alexandre; El Ayadi, Alison M; Sidibe, Sidikiba; Delvaux, Therese; Camara, Bienvenu S; Sandouno, Sah D; Beavogui, Abdoul H; Rutherford, Georges W; Okumura, Junko; Zhang, Wei-Hong; De Brouwere, Vincent

    2017-04-01

    The 2014 west African epidemic of Ebola virus disease posed a major threat to the health systems of the countries affected. We sought to quantify the consequences of Ebola virus disease on maternal and child health services in the highly-affected Forest region of Guinea. We did a retrospective, observational cohort study of women and children attending public health facilities for antenatal care, institutional delivery, and immunisation services in six of seven health districts in the Forest region (Beyla, Guéckédou, Kissidougou, Lola, Macenta, and N'Zérékoré). We examined monthly service use data for eight maternal and child health services indicators: antenatal care (≥1 antenatal care visit and ≥3 antenatal care visits), institutional delivery, and receipt of five infant vaccines: polio, pentavalent (diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis, hepatitis B virus, and Haemophilus influenzae type b), yellow fever, measles, and tuberculosis. We used interrupted time series models to estimate trends in each indicator across three time periods: pre-Ebola virus disease epidemic (January, 2013, to February, 2014), during-epidemic (March, 2014, to February, 2015) and post-epidemic (March, 2015, to Feb, 2016). We used segmented ordinary least-squares (OLS) regression using Newey-West standard errors to accommodate for serial autocorrelation, and adjusted for any potential effect of birth seasonality on our outcomes. In the months before the Ebola virus disease outbreak, all three maternal indicators showed a significantly positive change in trend, ranging from a monthly average increase of 61 (95% CI 38-84) institutional deliveries to 119 (95% CI 79-158) women achieving at least three antenatal care visits. These increasing trends were reversed during the epidemic: fewer institutional deliveries occurred (-240, 95% CI -293 to -187), and fewer women achieved at least one antenatal care visit (-418, 95% CI -535 to -300) or at least three antenatal care visits (-363, 95% CI -485

  6. Trends spanning 36 years of nursing research

    OpenAIRE

    LEE Hyeyong; SHIMOTAKAHARA Rie; FUKADA Akimi; SHINBASHI Sum