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Sample records for response time model

  1. Hierarchical Bayes Models for Response Time Data

    Craigmile, Peter F.; Peruggia, Mario; Van Zandt, Trisha

    2010-01-01

    Human response time (RT) data are widely used in experimental psychology to evaluate theories of mental processing. Typically, the data constitute the times taken by a subject to react to a succession of stimuli under varying experimental conditions. Because of the sequential nature of the experiments there are trends (due to learning, fatigue,…

  2. The Value of Response Times in Item Response Modeling

    Molenaar, Dylan

    2015-01-01

    A new and very interesting approach to the analysis of responses and response times is proposed by Goldhammer (this issue). In his approach, differences in the speed-ability compromise within respondents are considered to confound the differences in ability between respondents. These confounding effects of speed on the inferences about ability can…

  3. Response moderation models for conditional dependence between response time and response accuracy.

    Bolsinova, Maria; Tijmstra, Jesper; Molenaar, Dylan

    2017-05-01

    It is becoming more feasible and common to register response times in the application of psychometric tests. Researchers thus have the opportunity to jointly model response accuracy and response time, which provides users with more relevant information. The most common choice is to use the hierarchical model (van der Linden, 2007, Psychometrika, 72, 287), which assumes conditional independence between response time and accuracy, given a person's speed and ability. However, this assumption may be violated in practice if, for example, persons vary their speed or differ in their response strategies, leading to conditional dependence between response time and accuracy and confounding measurement. We propose six nested hierarchical models for response time and accuracy that allow for conditional dependence, and discuss their relationship to existing models. Unlike existing approaches, the proposed hierarchical models allow for various forms of conditional dependence in the model and allow the effect of continuous residual response time on response accuracy to be item-specific, person-specific, or both. Estimation procedures for the models are proposed, as well as two information criteria that can be used for model selection. Parameter recovery and usefulness of the information criteria are investigated using simulation, indicating that the procedure works well and is likely to select the appropriate model. Two empirical applications are discussed to illustrate the different types of conditional dependence that may occur in practice and how these can be captured using the proposed hierarchical models. © 2016 The British Psychological Society.

  4. Hidden Markov Item Response Theory Models for Responses and Response Times.

    Molenaar, Dylan; Oberski, Daniel; Vermunt, Jeroen; De Boeck, Paul

    2016-01-01

    Current approaches to model responses and response times to psychometric tests solely focus on between-subject differences in speed and ability. Within subjects, speed and ability are assumed to be constants. Violations of this assumption are generally absorbed in the residual of the model. As a result, within-subject departures from the between-subject speed and ability level remain undetected. These departures may be of interest to the researcher as they reflect differences in the response processes adopted on the items of a test. In this article, we propose a dynamic approach for responses and response times based on hidden Markov modeling to account for within-subject differences in responses and response times. A simulation study is conducted to demonstrate acceptable parameter recovery and acceptable performance of various fit indices in distinguishing between different models. In addition, both a confirmatory and an exploratory application are presented to demonstrate the practical value of the modeling approach.

  5. A Box-Cox normal model for response times.

    Klein Entink, R H; van der Linden, W J; Fox, J-P

    2009-11-01

    The log-transform has been a convenient choice in response time modelling on test items. However, motivated by a dataset of the Medical College Admission Test where the lognormal model violated the normality assumption, the possibilities of the broader class of Box-Cox transformations for response time modelling are investigated. After an introduction and an outline of a broader framework for analysing responses and response times simultaneously, the performance of a Box-Cox normal model for describing response times is investigated using simulation studies and a real data example. A transformation-invariant implementation of the deviance information criterium (DIC) is developed that allows for comparing model fit between models with different transformation parameters. Showing an enhanced description of the shape of the response time distributions, its application in an educational measurement context is discussed at length.

  6. Using Response Times to Assess Learning Progress: A Joint Model for Responses and Response Times

    Wang, Shiyu; Zhang, Susu; Douglas, Jeff; Culpepper, Steven

    2018-01-01

    Analyzing students' growth remains an important topic in educational research. Most recently, Diagnostic Classification Models (DCMs) have been used to track skill acquisition in a longitudinal fashion, with the purpose to provide an estimate of students' learning trajectories in terms of the change of fine-grained skills overtime. Response time…

  7. A Box-Cox normal model for response times

    Klein Entink, R.H.; Fox, J.P.; Linden, W.J. van der

    2009-01-01

    The log-transform has been a convenient choice in response time modelling on test items. However, motivated by a dataset of the Medical College Admission Test where the lognormal model violated the normality assumption, the possibilities of the broader class of Box–Cox transformations for response

  8. Incorporating Response Times in Item Response Theory Models of Reading Comprehension Fluency

    Su, Shiyang

    2017-01-01

    With the online assessment becoming mainstream and the recording of response times becoming straightforward, the importance of response times as a measure of psychological constructs has been recognized and the literature of modeling times has been growing during the last few decades. Previous studies have tried to formulate models and theories to…

  9. Response Mixture Modeling: Accounting for Heterogeneity in Item Characteristics across Response Times.

    Molenaar, Dylan; de Boeck, Paul

    2018-06-01

    In item response theory modeling of responses and response times, it is commonly assumed that the item responses have the same characteristics across the response times. However, heterogeneity might arise in the data if subjects resort to different response processes when solving the test items. These differences may be within-subject effects, that is, a subject might use a certain process on some of the items and a different process with different item characteristics on the other items. If the probability of using one process over the other process depends on the subject's response time, within-subject heterogeneity of the item characteristics across the response times arises. In this paper, the method of response mixture modeling is presented to account for such heterogeneity. Contrary to traditional mixture modeling where the full response vectors are classified, response mixture modeling involves classification of the individual elements in the response vector. In a simulation study, the response mixture model is shown to be viable in terms of parameter recovery. In addition, the response mixture model is applied to a real dataset to illustrate its use in investigating within-subject heterogeneity in the item characteristics across response times.

  10. Modeling operators' emergency response time for chemical processing operations.

    Murray, Susan L; Harputlu, Emrah; Mentzer, Ray A; Mannan, M Sam

    2014-01-01

    Operators have a crucial role during emergencies at a variety of facilities such as chemical processing plants. When an abnormality occurs in the production process, the operator often has limited time to either take corrective actions or evacuate before the situation becomes deadly. It is crucial that system designers and safety professionals can estimate the time required for a response before procedures and facilities are designed and operations are initiated. There are existing industrial engineering techniques to establish time standards for tasks performed at a normal working pace. However, it is reasonable to expect the time required to take action in emergency situations will be different than working at a normal production pace. It is possible that in an emergency, operators will act faster compared to a normal pace. It would be useful for system designers to be able to establish a time range for operators' response times for emergency situations. This article develops a modeling approach to estimate the time standard range for operators taking corrective actions or following evacuation procedures in emergency situations. This will aid engineers and managers in establishing time requirements for operators in emergency situations. The methodology used for this study combines a well-established industrial engineering technique for determining time requirements (predetermined time standard system) and adjustment coefficients for emergency situations developed by the authors. Numerous videos of workers performing well-established tasks at a maximum pace were studied. As an example, one of the tasks analyzed was pit crew workers changing tires as quickly as they could during a race. The operations in these videos were decomposed into basic, fundamental motions (such as walking, reaching for a tool, and bending over) by studying the videos frame by frame. A comparison analysis was then performed between the emergency pace and the normal working pace operations

  11. Leveraging First Response Time into the Knowledge Tracing Model

    Wang, Yutao; Heffernan, Neil T.

    2012-01-01

    The field of educational data mining has been using the Knowledge Tracing model, which only look at the correctness of student first response, for tracking student knowledge. Recently, lots of other features are studied to extend the Knowledge Tracing model to better model student knowledge. The goal of this paper is to analyze whether or not the…

  12. Lichen Parmelia sulcata time response model to environmental elemental availability

    Reis, M.A.; Alves, L.C.; Freitas, M.C.; Os, B. van; Wolterbeek, H.Th.

    2000-01-01

    Transplants of lichen Parmelia sulcata collected in an area previously identified as non polluted, were placed at six stations, five of which were near Power Plants and the other in an area expected to be a remote station. Together with the lichen transplants, two total deposition collection buckets and an aerosol sampler were installed. Lichens were recollected two every month from each station. At the same time the water collection buckets were replaced by new ones. The aerosol sampler filter was replaced every week, collection being effective only for 10 minutes out of every two hours; in the remote station aerosol filters were replaced only once a month, the collection rate being kept. Each station was run for a period of one year. Both lichens and aerosol filters were analysed by PIXE and INAA at ITN. Total deposition samples were dried under an infrared lamp, and afterwards acid digested and analysed by ICP-MS at the National Geological Survey of The Netherlands. Data for the three types of samples were then produced for a total of 16 elements. In this work we used the data set thus obtained to test a model for the time response of lichen Parmelia sulcata to a new environment. (author)

  13. A Bivariate Generalized Linear Item Response Theory Modeling Framework to the Analysis of Responses and Response Times.

    Molenaar, Dylan; Tuerlinckx, Francis; van der Maas, Han L J

    2015-01-01

    A generalized linear modeling framework to the analysis of responses and response times is outlined. In this framework, referred to as bivariate generalized linear item response theory (B-GLIRT), separate generalized linear measurement models are specified for the responses and the response times that are subsequently linked by cross-relations. The cross-relations can take various forms. Here, we focus on cross-relations with a linear or interaction term for ability tests, and cross-relations with a curvilinear term for personality tests. In addition, we discuss how popular existing models from the psychometric literature are special cases in the B-GLIRT framework depending on restrictions in the cross-relation. This allows us to compare existing models conceptually and empirically. We discuss various extensions of the traditional models motivated by practical problems. We also illustrate the applicability of our approach using various real data examples, including data on personality and cognitive ability.

  14. A generalized linear factor model approach to the hierarchical framework for responses and response times.

    Molenaar, Dylan; Tuerlinckx, Francis; van der Maas, Han L J

    2015-05-01

    We show how the hierarchical model for responses and response times as developed by van der Linden (2007), Fox, Klein Entink, and van der Linden (2007), Klein Entink, Fox, and van der Linden (2009), and Glas and van der Linden (2010) can be simplified to a generalized linear factor model with only the mild restriction that there is no hierarchical model at the item side. This result is valuable as it enables all well-developed modelling tools and extensions that come with these methods. We show that the restriction we impose on the hierarchical model does not influence parameter recovery under realistic circumstances. In addition, we present two illustrative real data analyses to demonstrate the practical benefits of our approach. © 2014 The British Psychological Society.

  15. Exactly solvable model for the time response function of RPCs

    Mangiarotti, A.; Fonte, P.; Gobbi, A.

    2004-01-01

    The fluctuation theory for the growth of several avalanches is briefly summarized and extended to include the case of electronegative gas mixtures. Based on such physical picture, the intrinsic time response function of an RPC can be calculated in a closed form and its average and rms extracted from series representations. The corresponding timing resolution, expressed in units of 1/((α-η)vd), is a universal function of the mean number of 'effective' clusters n0 reduced by electron attachment: n0(1-η/α). A comparison to a few selected good-quality experimental data is attempted for the timing resolution of both 1-gap and 4-gaps RPCs, finding a reasonable agreement

  16. Joint Testlet Cognitive Diagnosis Modeling for Paired Local Item Dependence in Response Times and Response Accuracy

    Peida Zhan

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available In joint models for item response times (RTs and response accuracy (RA, local item dependence is composed of local RA dependence and local RT dependence. The two components are usually caused by the same common stimulus and emerge as pairs. Thus, the violation of local item independence in the joint models is called paired local item dependence. To address the issue of paired local item dependence while applying the joint cognitive diagnosis models (CDMs, this study proposed a joint testlet cognitive diagnosis modeling approach. The proposed approach is an extension of Zhan et al. (2017 and it incorporates two types of random testlet effect parameters (one for RA and the other for RTs to account for paired local item dependence. The model parameters were estimated using the full Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC method. The 2015 PISA computer-based mathematics data were analyzed to demonstrate the application of the proposed model. Further, a brief simulation study was conducted to demonstrate the acceptable parameter recovery and the consequence of ignoring paired local item dependence.

  17. Limited information estimation of the diffusion-based item response theory model for responses and response times.

    Ranger, Jochen; Kuhn, Jörg-Tobias; Szardenings, Carsten

    2016-05-01

    Psychological tests are usually analysed with item response models. Recently, some alternative measurement models have been proposed that were derived from cognitive process models developed in experimental psychology. These models consider the responses but also the response times of the test takers. Two such models are the Q-diffusion model and the D-diffusion model. Both models can be calibrated with the diffIRT package of the R statistical environment via marginal maximum likelihood (MML) estimation. In this manuscript, an alternative approach to model calibration is proposed. The approach is based on weighted least squares estimation and parallels the standard estimation approach in structural equation modelling. Estimates are determined by minimizing the discrepancy between the observed and the implied covariance matrix. The estimator is simple to implement, consistent, and asymptotically normally distributed. Least squares estimation also provides a test of model fit by comparing the observed and implied covariance matrix. The estimator and the test of model fit are evaluated in a simulation study. Although parameter recovery is good, the estimator is less efficient than the MML estimator. © 2016 The British Psychological Society.

  18. Modelling response times in multi-alternative categorization with TVA

    Blurton, Steven Paul; Kyllingsbæk, Søren; Bundesen, Claus

    , such as trial-to-trial variation in the Poisson processing rates and an extension of the random walk to n-alternatives. In an empirical test of the model we fitted the random walk model to data of a binary and a four-alternative orientation discrimination task. In both cases, the model predictions closely...

  19. Modeling ferrite electromagnetic response in the time domain

    Johnson, J.; DeFord, J.F.; Craig, G.D.

    1989-01-01

    The behavior of ferrite loads commonly found in induction accelertors has important consequences for the performance of these accelerators. Previous work by the authors on modeling the electromagnetic fields in induction cavities has focussed upon use of a simple, phenomenological model for the process of magnetization reversal in these ferrite loads. In this paper we consider a model for magnetization reversal which is more deeply rooted in theory, and present a simulation of the reversal process based upon this model for an idealized set of boundary conditions. 7 refs., 3 figs

  20. Modeling Confidence and Response Time in Recognition Memory

    Ratcliff, Roger; Starns, Jeffrey J.

    2009-01-01

    A new model for confidence judgments in recognition memory is presented. In the model, the match between a single test item and memory produces a distribution of evidence, with better matches corresponding to distributions with higher means. On this match dimension, confidence criteria are placed, and the areas between the criteria under the…

  1. A heteroscedastic generalized linear model with a non-normal speed factor for responses and response times.

    Molenaar, Dylan; Bolsinova, Maria

    2017-05-01

    In generalized linear modelling of responses and response times, the observed response time variables are commonly transformed to make their distribution approximately normal. A normal distribution for the transformed response times is desirable as it justifies the linearity and homoscedasticity assumptions in the underlying linear model. Past research has, however, shown that the transformed response times are not always normal. Models have been developed to accommodate this violation. In the present study, we propose a modelling approach for responses and response times to test and model non-normality in the transformed response times. Most importantly, we distinguish between non-normality due to heteroscedastic residual variances, and non-normality due to a skewed speed factor. In a simulation study, we establish parameter recovery and the power to separate both effects. In addition, we apply the model to a real data set. © 2017 The Authors. British Journal of Mathematical and Statistical Psychology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Psychological Society.

  2. Modeling an Application's Theoretical Minimum and Average Transactional Response Times

    Paiz, Mary Rose [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2015-04-01

    The theoretical minimum transactional response time of an application serves as a ba- sis for the expected response time. The lower threshold for the minimum response time represents the minimum amount of time that the application should take to complete a transaction. Knowing the lower threshold is beneficial in detecting anomalies that are re- sults of unsuccessful transactions. On the converse, when an application's response time falls above an upper threshold, there is likely an anomaly in the application that is causing unusual performance issues in the transaction. This report explains how the non-stationary Generalized Extreme Value distribution is used to estimate the lower threshold of an ap- plication's daily minimum transactional response time. It also explains how the seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average time series model is used to estimate the upper threshold for an application's average transactional response time.

  3. Integrated response and transit time distributions of watersheds by combining hydrograph separation and long-term transit time modeling

    M. C. Roa-García

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available We present a new modeling approach analyzing and predicting the Transit Time Distribution (TTD and the Response Time Distribution (RTD from hourly to annual time scales as two distinct hydrological processes. The model integrates Isotope Hydrograph Separation (IHS and the Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph (IUH approach as a tool to provide a more realistic description of transit and response time of water in catchments. Individual event simulations and parameterizations were combined with long-term baseflow simulation and parameterizations; this provides a comprehensive picture of the catchment response for a long time span for the hydraulic and isotopic processes. The proposed method was tested in three Andean headwater catchments to compare the effects of land use on hydrological response and solute transport. Results show that the characteristics of events and antecedent conditions have a significant influence on TTD and RTD, but in general the RTD of the grassland dominated catchment is concentrated in the shorter time spans and has a higher cumulative TTD, while the forest dominated catchment has a relatively higher response distribution and lower cumulative TTD. The catchment where wetlands concentrate shows a flashier response, but wetlands also appear to prolong transit time.

  4. Fitting Diffusion Item Response Theory Models for Responses and Response Times Using the R Package diffIRT

    Dylan Molenaar

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available In the psychometric literature, item response theory models have been proposed that explicitly take the decision process underlying the responses of subjects to psychometric test items into account. Application of these models is however hampered by the absence of general and flexible software to fit these models. In this paper, we present diffIRT, an R package that can be used to fit item response theory models that are based on a diffusion process. We discuss parameter estimation and model fit assessment, show the viability of the package in a simulation study, and illustrate the use of the package with two datasets pertaining to extraversion and mental rotation. In addition, we illustrate how the package can be used to fit the traditional diffusion model (as it has been originally developed in experimental psychology to data.

  5. Sensor response monitoring in pressurized water reactors using time series modeling

    Upadhyaya, B.R.; Kerlin, T.W.

    1978-01-01

    Random data analysis in nuclear power reactors for purposes of process surveillance, pattern recognition and monitoring of temperature, pressure, flow and neutron sensors has gained increasing attention in view of their potential for helping to ensure safe plant operation. In this study, application of autoregressive moving-average (ARMA) time series modeling for monitoring temperature sensor response characteristrics is presented. The ARMA model is used to estimate the step and ramp response of the sensors and the related time constant and ramp delay time. The ARMA parameters are estimated by a two-stage algorithm in the spectral domain. Results of sensor testing for an operating pressurized water reactor are presented. 16 refs

  6. Decision-Tree Models of Categorization Response Times, Choice Proportions, and Typicality Judgments

    Lafond, Daniel; Lacouture, Yves; Cohen, Andrew L.

    2009-01-01

    The authors present 3 decision-tree models of categorization adapted from T. Trabasso, H. Rollins, and E. Shaughnessy (1971) and use them to provide a quantitative account of categorization response times, choice proportions, and typicality judgments at the individual-participant level. In Experiment 1, the decision-tree models were fit to…

  7. Transient response of a five-region nonequilibrium real-time pressurizer model

    Fakory, M.R.; Seifaee, F.

    1987-01-01

    Recent accidents at nuclear power plants in the US and abroad have prompted accurate analysis and simulation of the plant systems and the training of reactor operators on plant-specific simulators that are equipped with the simulation models. Consequently, several models for real-time and off-time simulation of nuclear reactor systems, with various levels of accuracy and simulation fidelity, have been introduced. Experience with power plant simulation demonstrates that in order to realistically predict and simulate reactor responses during unanticipated transients, it is necessary to equip the simulation model with a multielement pressurizer model. The objective of this paper is to present the results of a five-region drift-flux-based pressurizer model, which has been developed for integration with real-time training simulators. A comparison between the plant data and the results of the nonequilibrium pressurizer model demonstrates that the model is well capable of close simulation of dynamic behavior of the pressurizer system

  8. Time response measurements of Rosemount Pressure Transmitters (model 3154) of Angra-1 power plant

    Santos, Roberto Carlos dos; Pereira, Iraci Martinez; Justino, Marcelo C.; Silva, Marcos C.

    2017-01-01

    This paper shows the Response of time five Rosemount model 3154N pressure transmitter from the Angra I Nuclear Power Plant. The tests were performed using the Hydraulic Ramp and Pressure Step Generator from the Sensor Response Time Measurement laboratory of CEN - Nuclear Engineering Center of IPEN. For each transmitter, damping was adjusted so that the time constant was less than or equal to 500 ms. This value has been determined so that the total value of the protection chain response time does not exceed the established maximum value of 2 seconds. For each transmitter ten tests were performed, obtaining mean values of time constant of 499.7 ms, 464.1 ms, 473.8 ms, 484.7 ms and 511.5 ms, with mean deviations 0.85%, 0.24%, 0.97%, 1.26% and 0.64% respectively. (author)

  9. Time response measurements of Rosemount Pressure Transmitters (model 3154) of Angra-1 power plant

    Santos, Roberto Carlos dos; Pereira, Iraci Martinez [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil); Justino, Marcelo C.; Silva, Marcos C., E-mail: rcsantos@ipen.br, E-mail: justino@eletronuclear.gov.br [Eletrobrás Termonuclear S.A. (ELETRONUCLEAR), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2017-07-01

    This paper shows the Response of time five Rosemount model 3154N pressure transmitter from the Angra I Nuclear Power Plant. The tests were performed using the Hydraulic Ramp and Pressure Step Generator from the Sensor Response Time Measurement laboratory of CEN - Nuclear Engineering Center of IPEN. For each transmitter, damping was adjusted so that the time constant was less than or equal to 500 ms. This value has been determined so that the total value of the protection chain response time does not exceed the established maximum value of 2 seconds. For each transmitter ten tests were performed, obtaining mean values of time constant of 499.7 ms, 464.1 ms, 473.8 ms, 484.7 ms and 511.5 ms, with mean deviations 0.85%, 0.24%, 0.97%, 1.26% and 0.64% respectively. (author)

  10. The linear transformation model with frailties for the analysis of item response times.

    Wang, Chun; Chang, Hua-Hua; Douglas, Jeffrey A

    2013-02-01

    The item response times (RTs) collected from computerized testing represent an underutilized source of information about items and examinees. In addition to knowing the examinees' responses to each item, we can investigate the amount of time examinees spend on each item. In this paper, we propose a semi-parametric model for RTs, the linear transformation model with a latent speed covariate, which combines the flexibility of non-parametric modelling and the brevity as well as interpretability of parametric modelling. In this new model, the RTs, after some non-parametric monotone transformation, become a linear model with latent speed as covariate plus an error term. The distribution of the error term implicitly defines the relationship between the RT and examinees' latent speeds; whereas the non-parametric transformation is able to describe various shapes of RT distributions. The linear transformation model represents a rich family of models that includes the Cox proportional hazards model, the Box-Cox normal model, and many other models as special cases. This new model is embedded in a hierarchical framework so that both RTs and responses are modelled simultaneously. A two-stage estimation method is proposed. In the first stage, the Markov chain Monte Carlo method is employed to estimate the parametric part of the model. In the second stage, an estimating equation method with a recursive algorithm is adopted to estimate the non-parametric transformation. Applicability of the new model is demonstrated with a simulation study and a real data application. Finally, methods to evaluate the model fit are suggested. © 2012 The British Psychological Society.

  11. Aggregate modeling of fast-acting demand response and control under real-time pricing

    Chassin, David P.; Rondeau, Daniel

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Demand elasticity for fast-acting demand response load under real-time pricing. • Validated first-principles logistic demand curve matches random utility model. • Logistic demand curve suitable for diversified aggregate loads market-based transactive control systems. - Abstract: This paper develops and assesses the performance of a short-term demand response (DR) model for utility load control with applications to resource planning and control design. Long term response models tend to underestimate short-term demand response when induced by prices. This has two important consequences. First, planning studies tend to undervalue DR and often overlook its benefits in utility demand management program development. Second, when DR is not overlooked, the open-loop DR control gain estimate may be too low. This can result in overuse of load resources, control instability and excessive price volatility. Our objective is therefore to develop a more accurate and better performing short-term demand response model. We construct the model from first principles about the nature of thermostatic load control and show that the resulting formulation corresponds exactly to the Random Utility Model employed in economics to study consumer choice. The model is tested against empirical data collected from field demonstration projects and is shown to perform better than alternative models commonly used to forecast demand in normal operating conditions. The results suggest that (1) existing utility tariffs appear to be inadequate to incentivize demand response, particularly in the presence of high renewables, and (2) existing load control systems run the risk of becoming unstable if utilities close the loop on real-time prices.

  12. Analytical Call Center Model with Voice Response Unit and Wrap-Up Time

    Petr Hampl

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The last twenty years of computer integration significantly changed the process of service in a call center service systems. Basic building modules of classical call centers – a switching system and a group of humans agents – was extended with other special modules such as skills-based routing module, automatic call distribution module, interactive voice response module and others to minimize the customer waiting time and wage costs. A calling customer of a modern call center is served in the first stage by the interactive voice response module without any human interaction. If the customer requirements are not satisfied in the first stage, the service continues to the second stage realized by the group of human agents. The service time of second stage – the average handle time – is divided into a conversation time and wrap-up time. During the conversation time, the agent answers customer questions and collects its requirements and during the wrap-up time (administrative time the agent completes the task without any customer interaction. The analytical model presented in this contribution is solved under the condition of statistical equilibrium and takes into account the interactive voice response module service time, the conversation time and the wrap-up time.

  13. Modeling Climate Responses to Spectral Solar Forcing on Centennial and Decadal Time Scales

    Wen, G.; Cahalan, R.; Rind, D.; Jonas, J.; Pilewskie, P.; Harder, J.

    2012-01-01

    We report a series of experiments to explore clima responses to two types of solar spectral forcing on decadal and centennial time scales - one based on prior reconstructions, and another implied by recent observations from the SORCE (Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment) SIM (Spectral 1rradiance Monitor). We apply these forcings to the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Global/Middle Atmosphere Model (GCMAM). that couples atmosphere with ocean, and has a model top near the mesopause, allowing us to examine the full response to the two solar forcing scenarios. We show different climate responses to the two solar forCing scenarios on decadal time scales and also trends on centennial time scales. Differences between solar maximum and solar minimum conditions are highlighted, including impacts of the time lagged reSponse of the lower atmosphere and ocean. This contrasts with studies that assume separate equilibrium conditions at solar maximum and minimum. We discuss model feedback mechanisms involved in the solar forced climate variations.

  14. Single- versus dual-process models of lexical decision performance: insights from response time distributional analysis.

    Yap, Melvin J; Balota, David A; Cortese, Michael J; Watson, Jason M

    2006-12-01

    This article evaluates 2 competing models that address the decision-making processes mediating word recognition and lexical decision performance: a hybrid 2-stage model of lexical decision performance and a random-walk model. In 2 experiments, nonword type and word frequency were manipulated across 2 contrasts (pseudohomophone-legal nonword and legal-illegal nonword). When nonwords became more wordlike (i.e., BRNTA vs. BRANT vs. BRANE), response latencies to nonwords were slowed and the word frequency effect increased. More important, distributional analyses revealed that the Nonword Type = Word Frequency interaction was modulated by different components of the response time distribution, depending on the specific nonword contrast. A single-process random-walk model was able to account for this particular set of findings more successfully than the hybrid 2-stage model. (c) 2006 APA, all rights reserved.

  15. Time response model of ER fluids for precision control of motors

    Koyanagi, Ken' ichi [Toyama Prefectural University, 5180 Kurokawa, Imizu, Toyama (Japan)], E-mail: koyanagi@pu-toyama.ac.jp

    2009-02-01

    For improvement of control performance or new control demands of mechatronics devices using particle type ER fluids, it will be needed to further investigate a response time of the fluids. It is commonly said around 5-mili seconds, however, the formula structure of that delay has not been clear. This study aims to develop a functional damper (attenuators), that can control its viscous characteristics in real time using ER fluids as its working fluid. ER dampers are useful to accomplish high precision positioning not to prevent high speed movement of the motor. To realize the functional damper that can be manipulated according to situations or tasks, the modeling and control of ER fluids are necessary. This paper investigates time delay affects of ER fluids and makes an in-depth dynamic model of the fluid by utilizing simulation and experiment. The mathematical model has a dead-time and first ordered delays of the fluid and the high voltage amplifier for the fluid.

  16. Technical Note: Response time evolution of XR-QA2 GafChromic™ film models.

    Aldelaijan, Saad; Tomic, Nada; Papaconstadopoulos, Pavlos; Schneider, James; Seuntjens, Jan; Shih, Shelley; Lewis, David; Devic, Slobodan

    2018-01-01

    To evaluate the response of the newest XR-QA2 GafChromic™ film model in terms of postexposure signal growth and energy response in comparison with the older XR-QA (Version 2) model. Pieces of film were irradiated to air kerma in air values up to 12 cGy with several beam qualities (5.3-8.25 mm Al) commonly used for CT scanning. Film response was scored in terms of net reflectance from scanned film images at various points in time postirradiation ranging from 1 to 7 days and 5 months postexposure. To reconstruct the measurement signal changes with postirradiation delay, we irradiated one film piece and then scanned it at different point times starting from 2" min and up to 3 days postexposure. For all beam qualities and dose range investigated, it appears that the XR-QA2 film signal completely saturated after 15 h. Compared to 15 h postirradiation scanning time, the observed variation in net reflectance were 3%, 2%, and 1% for film scanned 2" min, 20 min, and 3 h after exposure, respectively, which is well within the measurement uncertainty of the XR-QA2 based reference radiochromic film dosimetry system. A comparison between the XR-QA (Version 2) and the XR-QA2 film response after several months (relative to their responses after 24 h) show differences in up to 8% and 1% for each film model respectively. The replacement of cesium bromide in the older XR-QA (Version 2) film model with bismuth oxide in the newer XR-QA2 film, while keeping the same single sensitive layer structure, lead to a significantly more stable postexposure response. © 2017 American Association of Physicists in Medicine.

  17. The usefulness of time-dependent reactor accident consequence modelling for emergency response planning

    Paretzke, H.G.; Jacob, P.; Mueller, H.; Proehl, G.

    1989-01-01

    After major releases of radionuclides into the atmosphere fast reaction of authorities will be necessary to inform the public of potential consequences and to consider and optimize mitigating actions. These activities require availability of well designed computer models, adequate and fast measurements and prior training of responsible persons. The quantitative assessment models should be capable of taking into account of actual atmospheric dispersion conditions, actual deposition situation (dry, rain, snow, fog), seasonal status of the agriculture, food processing and distribution pathways, etc. In this paper the usefulness of such models will be discussed, their limitations, the relative importance of exposure pathways and a selection of important methods to decrease the activity in food products after an accident. Real-time reactor accident consequence models should be considered as a condition sine qua non for responsible use of nuclear power for electricity production

  18. Real-time monitoring/emergency response modeling workstation for a tritium facility

    Lawver, B.S.; Sims, J.M.; Baskett, R.L.

    1993-01-01

    At Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) we have developed a real-time system to monitor two stacks on our tritium handling facility. The monitors transmit the stack data to a workstation, which computes a three-dimensional numerical model of atmospheric dispersion. The workstation also collects surface and upper air data from meteorological towers and a sodar. The complex meteorological and terrain setting in the Livermore Valley demands more sophisticated resolution of the three-dimensional structure of the atmosphere to reliably calculate plume dispersion than afforded by Gaussian models. We experience both mountain valley and sea breeze flows. To address these complexities, we have implemented the three-dimensional diagnostic MATHEW mass-adjusted wind field and ADPIC particle-in-cell dispersion models on the workstation for use in real-time emergency response modeling. Both MATHEW and ADPIC have shown their utility in a variety of complex settings over the last 15 yr within the U.S. Department of Energy's Atmospheric Release Advisory Capability (ARAC) project. Faster workstations and real-time instruments allow utilization of more complex three-dimensional models, which provides a foundation for building a real-time monitoring and emergency response workstation for a tritium facility. The stack monitors are two ion chambers per stack

  19. Predictive event modelling in multicenter clinical trials with waiting time to response.

    Anisimov, Vladimir V

    2011-01-01

    A new analytic statistical technique for predictive event modeling in ongoing multicenter clinical trials with waiting time to response is developed. It allows for the predictive mean and predictive bounds for the number of events to be constructed over time, accounting for the newly recruited patients and patients already at risk in the trial, and for different recruitment scenarios. For modeling patient recruitment, an advanced Poisson-gamma model is used, which accounts for the variation in recruitment over time, the variation in recruitment rates between different centers and the opening or closing of some centers in the future. A few models for event appearance allowing for 'recurrence', 'death' and 'lost-to-follow-up' events and using finite Markov chains in continuous time are considered. To predict the number of future events over time for an ongoing trial at some interim time, the parameters of the recruitment and event models are estimated using current data and then the predictive recruitment rates in each center are adjusted using individual data and Bayesian re-estimation. For a typical scenario (continue to recruit during some time interval, then stop recruitment and wait until a particular number of events happens), the closed-form expressions for the predictive mean and predictive bounds of the number of events at any future time point are derived under the assumptions of Markovian behavior of the event progression. The technique is efficiently applied to modeling different scenarios for some ongoing oncology trials. Case studies are considered. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  20. Organic scintillators response function modeling for Monte Carlo simulation of Time-of-Flight measurements

    Carasco, C., E-mail: cedric.carasco@cea.fr [CEA, DEN, Cadarache, Nuclear Measurement Laboratory, F-13108 Saint-Paul-lez-Durance (France)

    2012-07-15

    In neutron Time-of-Flight (TOF) measurements performed with fast organic scintillation detectors, both pulse arrival time and amplitude are relevant. Monte Carlo simulation can be used to calculate the time-energy dependant neutron flux at the detector position. To convert the flux into a pulse height spectrum, one must calculate the detector response function for mono-energetic neutrons. MCNP can be used to design TOF systems, but standard MCNP versions cannot reliably calculate the energy deposited by fast neutrons in the detector since multiple scattering effects must be taken into account in an analog way, the individual recoil particles energy deposit being summed with the appropriate scintillation efficiency. In this paper, the energy response function of 2 Double-Prime Multiplication-Sign 2 Double-Prime and 5 Double-Prime Multiplication-Sign 5 Double-Prime liquid scintillation BC-501 A (Bicron) detectors to fast neutrons ranging from 20 keV to 5.0 MeV is computed with GEANT4 to be coupled with MCNPX through the 'MCNP Output Data Analysis' software developed under ROOT (). - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer GEANT4 has been used to model organic scintillators response to neutrons up to 5 MeV. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The response of 2 Double-Prime Multiplication-Sign 2 Double-Prime and 5 Double-Prime Multiplication-Sign 5 Double-Prime BC501A detectors has been parameterized with simple functions. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Parameterization will allow the modeling of neutron Time of Flight measurements with MCNP using tools based on CERN's ROOT.

  1. A real-time monitoring/emergency response modeling workstation for a tritium facility

    Lawver, B.S.; Sims, J.M.; Baskett, R.L.

    1993-07-01

    At Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) we developed a real-time system to monitor two stacks on our tritium handling facility. The monitors transmit the stack data to a workstation which computes a 3D numerical model of atmospheric dispersion. The workstation also collects surface and upper air data from meteorological towers and a sodar. The complex meteorological and terrain setting in the Livermore Valley demands more sophisticated resolution of the three-dimensional structure of the atmosphere to reliably calculate plume dispersion than afforded by Gaussian models. We experience both mountain valley and sea breeze flows. To address these complexities, we have implemented the three-dimensional diagnostic MATHEW mass-adjusted wind field and ADPIC particle-in-cell dispersion models on the workstation for use in real-time emergency response modeling. Both MATHEW and ADPIC have shown their utility in a variety of complex settings over the last 15 years within the Department of Energy's Atmospheric Release Advisory Capability (ARAC[1,2]) project

  2. Discrete-Slots Models of Visual Working-Memory Response Times

    Donkin, Christopher; Nosofsky, Robert M.; Gold, Jason M.; Shiffrin, Richard M.

    2014-01-01

    Much recent research has aimed to establish whether visual working memory (WM) is better characterized by a limited number of discrete all-or-none slots or by a continuous sharing of memory resources. To date, however, researchers have not considered the response-time (RT) predictions of discrete-slots versus shared-resources models. To complement the past research in this field, we formalize a family of mixed-state, discrete-slots models for explaining choice and RTs in tasks of visual WM change detection. In the tasks under investigation, a small set of visual items is presented, followed by a test item in 1 of the studied positions for which a change judgment must be made. According to the models, if the studied item in that position is retained in 1 of the discrete slots, then a memory-based evidence-accumulation process determines the choice and the RT; if the studied item in that position is missing, then a guessing-based accumulation process operates. Observed RT distributions are therefore theorized to arise as probabilistic mixtures of the memory-based and guessing distributions. We formalize an analogous set of continuous shared-resources models. The model classes are tested on individual subjects with both qualitative contrasts and quantitative fits to RT-distribution data. The discrete-slots models provide much better qualitative and quantitative accounts of the RT and choice data than do the shared-resources models, although there is some evidence for “slots plus resources” when memory set size is very small. PMID:24015956

  3. The determinants of response time in a repeated constant-sum game: A robust Bayesian hierarchical dual-process model.

    Spiliopoulos, Leonidas

    2018-03-01

    The investigation of response time and behavior has a long tradition in cognitive psychology, particularly for non-strategic decision-making. Recently, experimental economists have also studied response time in strategic interactions, but with an emphasis on either one-shot games or repeated social-dilemmas. I investigate the determinants of response time in a repeated (pure-conflict) game, admitting a unique mixed strategy Nash equilibrium, with fixed partner matching. Response times depend upon the interaction of two decision models embedded in a dual-process framework (Achtziger and Alós-Ferrer, 2014; Alós-Ferrer, 2016). The first decision model is the commonly used win-stay/lose-shift heuristic and the second the pattern-detecting reinforcement learning model in Spiliopoulos (2013b). The former is less complex and can be executed more quickly than the latter. As predicted, conflict between these two models (i.e., each one recommending a different course of action) led to longer response times than cases without conflict. The dual-process framework makes other qualitative response time predictions arising from the interaction between the existence (or not) of conflict and which one of the two decision models the chosen action is consistent with-these were broadly verified by the data. Other determinants of RT were hypothesized on the basis of existing theory and tested empirically. Response times were strongly dependent on the actions chosen by both players in the previous rounds and the resulting outcomes. Specifically, response time was shortest after a win in the previous round where the maximum possible payoff was obtained; response time after losses was significantly longer. Strongly auto-correlated behavior (regardless of its sign) was also associated with longer response times. I conclude that, similar to other tasks, there is a strong coupling in repeated games between behavior and RT, which can be exploited to further our understanding of decision

  4. Testing a linear time invariant model for skin conductance responses by intraneural recording and stimulation.

    Gerster, Samuel; Namer, Barbara; Elam, Mikael; Bach, Dominik R

    2018-02-01

    Skin conductance responses (SCR) are increasingly analyzed with model-based approaches that assume a linear and time-invariant (LTI) mapping from sudomotor nerve (SN) activity to observed SCR. These LTI assumptions have previously been validated indirectly, by quantifying how much variance in SCR elicited by sensory stimulation is explained under an LTI model. This approach, however, collapses sources of variability in the nervous and effector organ systems. Here, we directly focus on the SN/SCR mapping by harnessing two invasive methods. In an intraneural recording experiment, we simultaneously track SN activity and SCR. This allows assessing the SN/SCR relationship but possibly suffers from interfering activity of non-SN sympathetic fibers. In an intraneural stimulation experiment under regional anesthesia, such influences are removed. In this stimulation experiment, about 95% of SCR variance is explained under LTI assumptions when stimulation frequency is below 0.6 Hz. At higher frequencies, nonlinearities occur. In the intraneural recording experiment, explained SCR variance is lower, possibly indicating interference from non-SN fibers, but higher than in our previous indirect tests. We conclude that LTI systems may not only be a useful approximation but in fact a rather accurate description of biophysical reality in the SN/SCR system, under conditions of low baseline activity and sporadic external stimuli. Intraneural stimulation under regional anesthesia is the most sensitive method to address this question. © 2017 The Authors. Psychophysiology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Psychophysiological Research.

  5. Methodological and empirical developments for the Ratcliff diffusion model of response times and accuracy

    Wagenmakers, E.-J.

    2009-01-01

    The Ratcliff diffusion model for simple two-choice decisions (e.g., Ratcliff, 1978; Ratcliff & McKoon, 2008) has two outstanding advantages. First, the model generally provides an excellent fit to the observed data (i.e., response accuracy and the shape of RT distributions, both for correct and

  6. Advances in real-time technology assessment and emergency response: Close-in atmospheric dispersion modeling and exposure estimation

    Sims, J.; Lee, R.; McCallen, R.; Lawver, B.; Clark, J.; Rueppel, D.; Sullivan, T.

    1992-07-01

    We have developed a stand-alone, real-time emergency response system to assess and predict the offsite dispersion of particulate releases. We have also developed advanced modeling tools that win expand the capability of the emergency response system to predict nearfield dispersion over complex terrain and around buildings

  7. Time-scale Dependence of Response of an Estuarine Water Quality Model to Nutrient Loading

    We describe calibration and evaluation of a water quality model being implemented for Narragansett Bay to quantify the response of concentrations of nutrients, phytoplankton chlorophyll a and dissolved oxygen in the Bay to loading rates of nutrients and other boundary conditions....

  8. A Response-Time Approach to Comparing Generalized Rational and Take-the-Best Models of Decision Making

    Bergert, F. Bryan; Nosofsky, Robert M.

    2007-01-01

    The authors develop and test generalized versions of take-the-best (TTB) and rational (RAT) models of multiattribute paired-comparison inference. The generalized models make allowances for subjective attribute weighting, probabilistic orders of attribute inspection, and noisy decision making. A key new test involves a response-time (RT)…

  9. Rapid Modeling of and Response to Large Earthquakes Using Real-Time GPS Networks (Invited)

    Crowell, B. W.; Bock, Y.; Squibb, M. B.

    2010-12-01

    Real-time GPS networks have the advantage of capturing motions throughout the entire earthquake cycle (interseismic, seismic, coseismic, postseismic), and because of this, are ideal for real-time monitoring of fault slip in the region. Real-time GPS networks provide the perfect supplement to seismic networks, which operate with lower noise and higher sampling rates than GPS networks, but only measure accelerations or velocities, putting them at a supreme disadvantage for ascertaining the full extent of slip during a large earthquake in real-time. Here we report on two examples of rapid modeling of recent large earthquakes near large regional real-time GPS networks. The first utilizes Japan’s GEONET consisting of about 1200 stations during the 2003 Mw 8.3 Tokachi-Oki earthquake about 100 km offshore Hokkaido Island and the second investigates the 2010 Mw 7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake recorded by more than 100 stations in the California Real Time Network. The principal components of strain were computed throughout the networks and utilized as a trigger to initiate earthquake modeling. Total displacement waveforms were then computed in a simulated real-time fashion using a real-time network adjustment algorithm that fixes a station far away from the rupture to obtain a stable reference frame. Initial peak ground displacement measurements can then be used to obtain an initial size through scaling relationships. Finally, a full coseismic model of the event can be run minutes after the event, given predefined fault geometries, allowing emergency first responders and researchers to pinpoint the regions of highest damage. Furthermore, we are also investigating using total displacement waveforms for real-time moment tensor inversions to look at spatiotemporal variations in slip.

  10. Dose-response model of murine typhus (Rickettsia typhi: time post inoculation and host age dependency analysis

    Tamrakar Sushil B

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Rickettsia typhi (R. mooseri is the causative agent of murine typhus. It is one of the most widely distributed flea-borne diseases with a relatively mild febrile initial illness with six to 14 days of incubation period. The bacterium is gram negative and an obligate intracellular pathogen. The disease is transmitted to humans and vertebrate host through fleabites or via contact with infected feces. This paper develops dose-response models of different routes of exposure for typhus in rodents. Methods Data from published articles were analyzed using parametric dose-response relationship models. Dose-response relationships were fit to data using the method of maximum likelihood estimation (MLE. Results Dose-response models quantifying the effects of different ages of rats and time post inoculation in BALB/c mice were analyzed in the study. Both the adult rats (inoculated intradermally and newborn rats (inoculated subcutaneously were best fit by exponential models and both distributions could be described by a single dose-response relationship. The BALB/C mice inoculated subcutaneously were best fit by Beta-Poisson models. The time post inoculation analysis showed that there was a definite time and response relationship existed in this case. Conclusions Intradermally or subcutaneously inoculated rats (adult and newborn models suggest that less than 1 plaque-forming unit (PFU (1.33 to 0.38 in 95% confidence limits of the pathogen is enough to seroconvert 50% of the exposed population on average. For the BALB/c mouse time post inoculation model, an average dose of 0.28 plaque-forming units (PFU (0.75 to 0.11 in 95% confidence limits will seroconvert 50% of the exposed mice.

  11. Control-focused, nonlinear and time-varying modelling of dielectric elastomer actuators with frequency response analysis

    Jacobs, William R; Dodd, Tony J; Anderson, Sean R; Wilson, Emma D; Porrill, John; Assaf, Tareq; Rossiter, Jonathan

    2015-01-01

    Current models of dielectric elastomer actuators (DEAs) are mostly constrained to first principal descriptions that are not well suited to the application of control design due to their computational complexity. In this work we describe an integrated framework for the identification of control focused, data driven and time-varying DEA models that allow advanced analysis of nonlinear system dynamics in the frequency-domain. Experimentally generated input–output data (voltage-displacement) was used to identify control-focused, nonlinear and time-varying dynamic models of a set of film-type DEAs. The model description used was the nonlinear autoregressive with exogenous input structure. Frequency response analysis of the DEA dynamics was performed using generalized frequency response functions, providing insight and a comparison into the time-varying dynamics across a set of DEA actuators. The results demonstrated that models identified within the presented framework provide a compact and accurate description of the system dynamics. The frequency response analysis revealed variation in the time-varying dynamic behaviour of DEAs fabricated to the same specifications. These results suggest that the modelling and analysis framework presented here is a potentially useful tool for future work in guiding DEA actuator design and fabrication for application domains such as soft robotics. (paper)

  12. Modeling Mental Speed: Decomposing Response Time Distributions in Elementary Cognitive Tasks and Correlations with Working Memory Capacity and Fluid Intelligence

    Florian Schmitz

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Previous research has shown an inverse relation between response times in elementary cognitive tasks and intelligence, but findings are inconsistent as to which is the most informative score. We conducted a study (N = 200 using a battery of elementary cognitive tasks, working memory capacity (WMC paradigms, and a test of fluid intelligence (gf. Frequently used candidate scores and model parameters derived from the response time (RT distribution were tested. Results confirmed a clear correlation of mean RT with WMC and to a lesser degree with gf. Highly comparable correlations were obtained for alternative location measures with or without extreme value treatment. Moderate correlations were found as well for scores of RT variability, but they were not as strong as for mean RT. Additionally, there was a trend towards higher correlations for slow RT bands, as compared to faster RT bands. Clearer evidence was obtained in an ex-Gaussian decomposition of the response times: the exponential component was selectively related to WMC and gf in easy tasks, while mean response time was additionally predictive in the most complex tasks. The diffusion model parsimoniously accounted for these effects in terms of individual differences in drift rate. Finally, correlations of model parameters as trait-like dispositions were investigated across different tasks, by correlating parameters of the diffusion and the ex-Gaussian model with conventional RT and accuracy scores.

  13. REAL-TIME MEASUREMENT OF AIRWAY RESPONSES TO SULOFUR DIOXIDE (SO2) IN AN INTACT, AWAKE GUINEA PIG MODEL

    Real-time measurment of airway responses to Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) in an intact, awake guinea pig model. J Stanek1,2, Q Krantz2, J Nolan2, D Winsett2, W Watkinson2, and D Costa2. 1College of Veterinary Medicine, NCSU, Raleigh, NC, USA; 2Pulmonary Toxicology Branch, ETD, NHEERL, US...

  14. A meta-analysis of response-time tests of the sequential two-systems model of moral judgment.

    Baron, Jonathan; Gürçay, Burcu

    2017-05-01

    The (generalized) sequential two-system ("default interventionist") model of utilitarian moral judgment predicts that utilitarian responses often arise from a system-two correction of system-one deontological intuitions. Response-time (RT) results that seem to support this model are usually explained by the fact that low-probability responses have longer RTs. Following earlier results, we predicted response probability from each subject's tendency to make utilitarian responses (A, "Ability") and each dilemma's tendency to elicit deontological responses (D, "Difficulty"), estimated from a Rasch model. At the point where A = D, the two responses are equally likely, so probability effects cannot account for any RT differences between them. The sequential two-system model still predicts that many of the utilitarian responses made at this point will result from system-two corrections of system-one intuitions, hence should take longer. However, when A = D, RT for the two responses was the same, contradicting the sequential model. Here we report a meta-analysis of 26 data sets, which replicated the earlier results of no RT difference overall at the point where A = D. The data sets used three different kinds of moral judgment items, and the RT equality at the point where A = D held for all three. In addition, we found that RT increased with A-D. This result holds for subjects (characterized by Ability) but not for items (characterized by Difficulty). We explain the main features of this unanticipated effect, and of the main results, with a drift-diffusion model.

  15. A study on the quantitative model of human response time using the amount and the similarity of information

    Lee, Sung Jin

    2006-02-01

    The mental capacity to retain or recall information, or memory is related to human performance during processing of information. Although a large number of studies have been carried out on human performance, little is known about the similarity effect. The purpose of this study was to propose and validate a quantitative and predictive model on human response time in the user interface with the basic concepts of information amount, similarity and degree of practice. It was difficult to explain human performance by only similarity or information amount. There were two difficulties: constructing a quantitative model on human response time and validating the proposed model by experimental work. A quantitative model based on the Hick's law, the law of practice and similarity theory was developed. The model was validated under various experimental conditions by measuring the participants' response time in the environment of a computer-based display. Human performance was improved by degree of similarity and practice in the user interface. Also we found the age-related human performance which was degraded as he or she was more elder. The proposed model may be useful for training operators who will handle some interfaces and predicting human performance by changing system design

  16. Modeling the time-varying and level-dependent effects of the medial olivocochlear reflex in auditory nerve responses.

    Smalt, Christopher J; Heinz, Michael G; Strickland, Elizabeth A

    2014-04-01

    The medial olivocochlear reflex (MOCR) has been hypothesized to provide benefit for listening in noisy environments. This advantage can be attributed to a feedback mechanism that suppresses auditory nerve (AN) firing in continuous background noise, resulting in increased sensitivity to a tone or speech. MOC neurons synapse on outer hair cells (OHCs), and their activity effectively reduces cochlear gain. The computational model developed in this study implements the time-varying, characteristic frequency (CF) and level-dependent effects of the MOCR within the framework of a well-established model for normal and hearing-impaired AN responses. A second-order linear system was used to model the time-course of the MOCR using physiological data in humans. The stimulus-level-dependent parameters of the efferent pathway were estimated by fitting AN sensitivity derived from responses in decerebrate cats using a tone-in-noise paradigm. The resulting model uses a binaural, time-varying, CF-dependent, level-dependent OHC gain reduction for both ipsilateral and contralateral stimuli that improves detection of a tone in noise, similarly to recorded AN responses. The MOCR may be important for speech recognition in continuous background noise as well as for protection from acoustic trauma. Further study of this model and its efferent feedback loop may improve our understanding of the effects of sensorineural hearing loss in noisy situations, a condition in which hearing aids currently struggle to restore normal speech perception.

  17. A real-time monitoring/emergency response workstation using a 3-D numerical model initialized with SODAR

    Lawver, B.S.; Sullivan, T.J.; Baskett, R.L.

    1993-01-01

    Many workstation based emergency response dispersion modeling systems provide simple Gaussian models driven by single meteorological tower inputs to estimate the downwind consequences from accidental spills or stack releases. Complex meteorological or terrain settings demand more sophisticated resolution of the three-dimensional structure of the atmosphere to reliably calculate plume dispersion. Mountain valleys and sea breeze flows are two common examples of such settings. To address these complexities, we have implemented the three-dimensional-diagnostic MATHEW mass-adjusted wind field and ADPIC particle-in-cell dispersion models on a workstation for use in real-time emergency response modeling. Both MATHEW and ADPIC have shown their utility in a variety of complex settings over the last 15 years within the Department of Energy's Atmospheric Release Advisory Capability project

  18. Dynamical response of the Ising model to the time dependent magnetic field with white noise

    Akıncı, Ümit

    2018-03-01

    The effect of the white noise in time dependent magnetic field on the dynamic behavior of the Ising model has been investigated within the effective field theory based on Glauber type of stochastic process. Discrete white noise has been chosen from both Gaussian and uniform probability distributions. Detailed investigation on probability distribution of dynamical order parameter results that, both type of noise distributions yield the same probability distribution related to the dynamical order parameter, namely Gaussian probability distribution. The variation of the parameters that describe the probability distribution of dynamical order parameter (mean value and standard deviation) with temperature and strength of the noise have been inspected. Also, it has been shown that, rising strength of the noise can induce dynamical phase transition in the system.

  19. Stochastic modelling for biodosimetry: Predicting the chromosomal response to radiation at different time points after exposure

    Deperas-Standylo, Joanna; Gudowska-Nowak, Ewa; Ritter, Sylvia

    2014-07-01

    Cytogenetic data accumulated from the experiments with peripheral blood lymphocytes exposed to densely ionizing radiation clearly demonstrate that for particles with linear energy transfer (LET) >100 keV/ μm the derived relative biological effectiveness (RBE) will strongly depend on the time point chosen for the analysis. A reasonable prediction of radiation-induced chromosome damage and its distribution among cells can be achieved by exploiting Monte Carlo methodology along with the information about the radius of the penetrating ion-track and the LET of the ion beam. In order to examine the relationship between the track structure and the distribution of aberrations induced in human lymphocytes and to clarify the correlation between delays in the cell cycle progression and the aberration burden visible at the first post-irradiation mitosis, we have analyzed chromosome aberrations in lymphocytes exposed to Fe-ions with LET values of 335 keV/ μm and formulated a Monte Carlo model which reflects time-delay in mitosis of aberrant cells. Within the model the frequency distributions of aberrations among cells follow the pattern of local energy distribution and are well approximated by a time-dependent compound Poisson statistics. The cell-division cycle of undamaged and aberrant cells and chromosome aberrations are modelled as a renewal process represented by a random sum of (independent and identically distributed) random elements S N = ∑ N i=0 X i . Here N stands for the number of particle traversals of cell nucleus, each leading to a statistically independent formation of X i aberrations. The parameter N is itself a random variable and reflects the cell cycle delay of heavily damaged cells. The probability distribution of S N follows a general law for which the moment generating function satisfies the relation Φ S N = Φ N ( Φ X i ). Formulation of the Monte Carlo model which allows to predict expected fluxes of aberrant and non-aberrant cells has been based

  20. Real-Time Decision Making and Aggressive Behavior in Youth: A Heuristic Model of Response Evaluation and Decision (RED).

    Fontaine, Reid Griffith; Dodge, Kenneth A

    2006-11-01

    Considerable scientific and intervention attention has been paid to judgment and decision-making systems associated with aggressive behavior in youth. However, most empirical studies have investigated social-cognitive correlates of stable child and adolescent aggressiveness, and less is known about real-time decision making to engage in aggressive behavior. A model of real-time decision making must incorporate both impulsive actions and rational thought. The present paper advances a process model (response evaluation and decision; RED) of real-time behavioral judgments and decision making in aggressive youths with mathematic representations that may be used to quantify response strength. These components are a heuristic to describe decision making, though it is doubtful that individuals always mentally complete these steps. RED represents an organization of social-cognitive operations believed to be active during the response decision step of social information processing. The model posits that RED processes can be circumvented through impulsive responding. This article provides a description and integration of thoughtful, rational decision making and nonrational impulsivity in aggressive behavioral interactions.

  1. CLEAR (Calculates Logical Evacuation And Response): A generic transportation network model for the calculation of evacuation time estimates

    Moeller, M.P.; Desrosiers, A.E.; Urbanik, T. II

    1982-03-01

    This paper describes the methodology and application of the computer model CLEAR (Calculates Logical Evacuation And Response) which estimates the time required for a specific population density and distribution to evacuate an area using a specific transportation network. The CLEAR model simulates vehicle departure and movement on a transportation network according to the conditions and consequences of traffic flow. These include handling vehicles at intersecting road segments, calculating the velocity of travel on a road segment as a function of its vehicle density, and accounting for the delay of vehicles in traffic queues. The program also models the distribution of times required by individuals to prepare for an evacuation. In order to test its accuracy, the CLEAR model was used to estimate evacuation times for the emergency planning zone surrounding the Beaver Valley Nuclear Power Plant. The Beaver Valley site was selected because evacuation time estimates had previously been prepared by the licensee, Duquesne Light, as well as by the Federal Emergency Management Agency and the Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency. A lack of documentation prevented a detailed comparison of the estimates based on the CLEAR model and those obtained by Duquesne Light. However, the CLEAR model results compared favorably with the estimates prepared by the other two agencies. (author)

  2. Extended Traffic Crash Modelling through Precision and Response Time Using Fuzzy Clustering Algorithms Compared with Multi-layer Perceptron

    Iman Aghayan

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper compares two fuzzy clustering algorithms – fuzzy subtractive clustering and fuzzy C-means clustering – to a multi-layer perceptron neural network for their ability to predict the severity of crash injuries and to estimate the response time on the traffic crash data. Four clustering algorithms – hierarchical, K-means, subtractive clustering, and fuzzy C-means clustering – were used to obtain the optimum number of clusters based on the mean silhouette coefficient and R-value before applying the fuzzy clustering algorithms. The best-fit algorithms were selected according to two criteria: precision (root mean square, R-value, mean absolute errors, and sum of square error and response time (t. The highest R-value was obtained for the multi-layer perceptron (0.89, demonstrating that the multi-layer perceptron had a high precision in traffic crash prediction among the prediction models, and that it was stable even in the presence of outliers and overlapping data. Meanwhile, in comparison with other prediction models, fuzzy subtractive clustering provided the lowest value for response time (0.284 second, 9.28 times faster than the time of multi-layer perceptron, meaning that it could lead to developing an on-line system for processing data from detectors and/or a real-time traffic database. The model can be extended through improvements based on additional data through induction procedure.

  3. CLEAR (Calculates Logical Evacuation And Response): A Generic Transportation Network Model for the Calculation of Evacuation Time Estimates

    Moeller, M. P.; Urbanik, II, T.; Desrosiers, A. E.

    1982-03-01

    This paper describes the methodology and application of the computer model CLEAR (Calculates Logical Evacuation And Response) which estimates the time required for a specific population density and distribution to evacuate an area using a specific transportation network. The CLEAR model simulates vehicle departure and movement on a transportation network according to the conditions and consequences of traffic flow. These include handling vehicles at intersecting road segments, calculating the velocity of travel on a road segment as a function of its vehicle density, and accounting for the delay of vehicles in traffic queues. The program also models the distribution of times required by individuals to prepare for an evacuation. In order to test its accuracy, the CLEAR model was used to estimate evacuatlon tlmes for the emergency planning zone surrounding the Beaver Valley Nuclear Power Plant. The Beaver Valley site was selected because evacuation time estimates had previously been prepared by the licensee, Duquesne Light, as well as by the Federal Emergency Management Agency and the Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency. A lack of documentation prevented a detailed comparison of the estimates based on the CLEAR model and those obtained by Duquesne Light. However, the CLEAR model results compared favorably with the estimates prepared by the other two agencies.

  4. Atmospheric and Oceanic Response to Southern Ocean Deep Convection Oscillations on Decadal to Centennial Time Scales in Climate Models

    Martin, T.; Reintges, A.; Park, W.; Latif, M.

    2014-12-01

    Many current coupled global climate models simulate open ocean deep convection in the Southern Ocean as a recurring event with time scales ranging from a few years to centennial (de Lavergne et al., 2014, Nat. Clim. Ch.). The only observation of such event, however, was the occurrence of the Weddell Polynya in the mid-1970s, an open water area of 350 000 km2 within the Antarctic sea ice in three consecutive winters. Both the wide range of modeled frequency of occurrence and the absence of deep convection in the Weddell Sea highlights the lack of understanding concerning the phenomenon. Nevertheless, simulations indicate that atmospheric and oceanic responses to the cessation of deep convection in the Southern Ocean include a strengthening of the low-level atmospheric circulation over the Southern Ocean (increasing SAM index) and a reduction in the export of Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW), potentially masking the regional effects of global warming (Latif et al., 2013, J. Clim.; Martin et al., 2014, Deep Sea Res. II). It is thus of great importance to enhance our understanding of Southern Ocean deep convection and clarify the associated time scales. In two multi-millennial simulations with the Kiel Climate Model (KCM, ECHAM5 T31 atmosphere & NEMO-LIM2 ~2˚ ocean) we showed that the deep convection is driven by strong oceanic warming at mid-depth periodically overriding the stabilizing effects of precipitation and ice melt (Martin et al., 2013, Clim. Dyn.). Sea ice thickness also affects location and duration of the deep convection. A new control simulation, in which, amongst others, the atmosphere grid resolution is changed to T42 (~2.8˚), yields a faster deep convection flip-flop with a period of 80-100 years and a weaker but still significant global climate response similar to CMIP5 simulations. While model physics seem to affect the time scale and intensity of the phenomenon, the driving mechanism is a rather robust feature. Finally, we compare the atmospheric and

  5. Decoupling of modeling and measuring interval in groundwater time series analysis based on response characteristics

    Berendrecht, W.L.; Heemink, A.W.; Geer, F.C. van; Gehrels, J.C.

    2003-01-01

    A state-space representation of the transfer function-noise (TFN) model allows the choice of a modeling (input) interval that is smaller than the measuring interval of the output variable. Since in geohydrological applications the interval of the available input series (precipitation excess) is

  6. Towards an Accurate Stress Dependant Time & Frequency Domain VE Response Model for Bituminous Binders

    Woldekidan, M.F.; Huurman, M.; Pronk, A.C.

    2010-01-01

    Linear viscoelastic properties of bituminous binders for short loading times are analyzed using dynamic mechanical analysis methods. Dynamic Shear Rheometer (DSR) test with parallel plate (PP) configuration is widely used for this purpose. Due to the complex stress distribution over the

  7. Gap timing and the spectral timing model.

    Hopson, J W

    1999-04-01

    A hypothesized mechanism underlying gap timing was implemented in the Spectral Timing Model [Grossberg, S., Schmajuk, N., 1989. Neural dynamics of adaptive timing and temporal discrimination during associative learning. Neural Netw. 2, 79-102] , a neural network timing model. The activation of the network nodes was made to decay in the absence of the timed signal, causing the model to shift its peak response time in a fashion similar to that shown in animal subjects. The model was then able to accurately simulate a parametric study of gap timing [Cabeza de Vaca, S., Brown, B., Hemmes, N., 1994. Internal clock and memory processes in aminal timing. J. Exp. Psychol.: Anim. Behav. Process. 20 (2), 184-198]. The addition of a memory decay process appears to produce the correct pattern of results in both Scalar Expectancy Theory models and in the Spectral Timing Model, and the fact that the same process should be effective in two such disparate models argues strongly that process reflects a true aspect of animal cognition.

  8. Dose- and time-dependence of the host-mediated response to paclitaxel therapy: a mathematical modeling approach.

    Benguigui, Madeleine; Alishekevitz, Dror; Timaner, Michael; Shechter, Dvir; Raviv, Ziv; Benzekry, Sebastien; Shaked, Yuval

    2018-01-05

    It has recently been suggested that pro-tumorigenic host-mediated processes induced in response to chemotherapy counteract the anti-tumor activity of therapy, and thereby decrease net therapeutic outcome. Here we use experimental data to formulate a mathematical model describing the host response to different doses of paclitaxel (PTX) chemotherapy as well as the duration of the response. Three previously described host-mediated effects are used as readouts for the host response to therapy. These include the levels of circulating endothelial progenitor cells in peripheral blood and the effect of plasma derived from PTX-treated mice on migratory and invasive properties of tumor cells in vitro . A first set of mathematical models, based on basic principles of pharmacokinetics/pharmacodynamics, did not appropriately describe the dose-dependence and duration of the host response regarding the effects on invasion. We therefore provide an alternative mathematical model with a dose-dependent threshold, instead of a concentration-dependent one, that describes better the data. This model is integrated into a global model defining all three host-mediated effects. It not only precisely describes the data, but also correctly predicts host-mediated effects at different doses as well as the duration of the host response. This mathematical model may serve as a tool to predict the host response to chemotherapy in cancer patients, and therefore may be used to design chemotherapy regimens with improved therapeutic outcome by minimizing host mediated effects.

  9. Adaptation and inhibition underlie responses to time-varying interaural phase cues in a model of inferior colliculus neurons.

    Borisyuk, Alla; Semple, Malcolm N; Rinzel, John

    2002-10-01

    A mathematical model was developed for exploring the sensitivity of low-frequency inferior colliculus (IC) neurons to interaural phase disparity (IPD). The formulation involves a firing-rate-type model that does not include spikes per se. The model IC neuron receives IPD-tuned excitatory and inhibitory inputs (viewed as the output of a collection of cells in the medial superior olive). The model cell possesses cellular properties of firing rate adaptation and postinhibitory rebound (PIR). The descriptions of these mechanisms are biophysically reasonable, but only semi-quantitative. We seek to explain within a minimal model the experimentally observed mismatch between responses to IPD stimuli delivered dynamically and those delivered statically (McAlpine et al. 2000; Spitzer and Semple 1993). The model reproduces many features of the responses to static IPD presentations, binaural beat, and partial range sweep stimuli. These features include differences in responses to a stimulus presented in static or dynamic context: sharper tuning and phase shifts in response to binaural beats, and hysteresis and "rise-from-nowhere" in response to partial range sweeps. Our results suggest that dynamic response features are due to the structure of inputs and the presence of firing rate adaptation and PIR mechanism in IC cells, but do not depend on a specific biophysical mechanism. We demonstrate how the model's various components contribute to shaping the observed phenomena. For example, adaptation, PIR, and transmission delay shape phase advances and delays in responses to binaural beats, adaptation and PIR shape hysteresis in different ranges of IPD, and tuned inhibition underlies asymmetry in dynamic tuning properties. We also suggest experiments to test our modeling predictions: in vitro simulation of the binaural beat (phase advance at low beat frequencies, its dependence on firing rate), in vivo partial range sweep experiments (dependence of the hysteresis curve on

  10. Logical-Rule Models of Classification Response Times: A Synthesis of Mental-Architecture, Random-Walk, and Decision-Bound Approaches

    Fific, Mario; Little, Daniel R.; Nosofsky, Robert M.

    2010-01-01

    We formalize and provide tests of a set of logical-rule models for predicting perceptual classification response times (RTs) and choice probabilities. The models are developed by synthesizing mental-architecture, random-walk, and decision-bound approaches. According to the models, people make independent decisions about the locations of stimuli…

  11. Processing of recognition information and additional cues: A model-based analysis of choice, confidence, and response time

    Andreas Glockner

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Research on the processing of recognition information has focused on testing the recognition heuristic (RH. On the aggregate, the noncompensatory use of recognition information postulated by the RH was rejected in several studies, while RH could still account for a considerable proportion of choices. These results can be explained if either a a part of the subjects used RH or b nobody used it but its choice predictions were accidentally in line with predictions of the strategy used. In the current study, which exemplifies a new approach to model testing, we determined individuals' decision strategies based on a maximum-likelihood classification method, taking into account choices, response times and confidence ratings simultaneously. Unlike most previous studies of the RH, our study tested the RH under conditions in which we provided information about cue values of unrecognized objects (which we argue is fairly common and thus of some interest. For 77.5% of the subjects, overall behavior was best explained by a compensatory parallel constraint satisfaction (PCS strategy. The proportion of subjects using an enhanced RH heuristic (RHe was negligible (up to 7.5%; 15% of the subjects seemed to use a take the best strategy (TTB. A more-fine grained analysis of the supplemental behavioral parameters conditional on strategy use supports PCS but calls into question process assumptions for apparent users of RH, RHe, and TTB within our experimental context. Our results are consistent with previous literature highlighting the importance of individual strategy classification as compared to aggregated analyses.

  12. Stochastic modeling of neurobiological time series: Power, coherence, Granger causality, and separation of evoked responses from ongoing activity

    Chen, Yonghong; Bressler, Steven L.; Knuth, Kevin H.; Truccolo, Wilson A.; Ding, Mingzhou

    2006-06-01

    In this article we consider the stochastic modeling of neurobiological time series from cognitive experiments. Our starting point is the variable-signal-plus-ongoing-activity model. From this model a differentially variable component analysis strategy is developed from a Bayesian perspective to estimate event-related signals on a single trial basis. After subtracting out the event-related signal from recorded single trial time series, the residual ongoing activity is treated as a piecewise stationary stochastic process and analyzed by an adaptive multivariate autoregressive modeling strategy which yields power, coherence, and Granger causality spectra. Results from applying these methods to local field potential recordings from monkeys performing cognitive tasks are presented.

  13. Modeling Complex Time Limits

    Oleg Svatos

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we analyze complexity of time limits we can find especially in regulated processes of public administration. First we review the most popular process modeling languages. There is defined an example scenario based on the current Czech legislature which is then captured in discussed process modeling languages. Analysis shows that the contemporary process modeling languages support capturing of the time limit only partially. This causes troubles to analysts and unnecessary complexity of the models. Upon unsatisfying results of the contemporary process modeling languages we analyze the complexity of the time limits in greater detail and outline lifecycles of a time limit using the multiple dynamic generalizations pattern. As an alternative to the popular process modeling languages there is presented PSD process modeling language, which supports the defined lifecycles of a time limit natively and therefore allows keeping the models simple and easy to understand.

  14. A Modified Thermal Time Model Quantifying Germination Response to Temperature for C3 and C4 Species in Temperate Grassland

    Hongxiang Zhang

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Thermal-based germination models are widely used to predict germination rate and germination timing of plants. However, comparison of model parameters between large numbers of species is rare. In this study, seeds of 27 species including 12 C4 and 15 C3 species were germinated at a range of constant temperatures from 5 °C to 40 °C. We used a modified thermal time model to calculate germination parameters at suboptimal temperatures. Generally, the optimal germination temperature was higher for C4 species than for C3 species. The thermal time constant for the 50% germination percentile was significantly higher for C3 than C4 species. The thermal time constant of perennials was significantly higher than that of annuals. However, differences in base temperatures were not significant between C3 and C4, or annuals and perennial species. The relationship between germination rate and seed mass depended on plant functional type and temperature, while the base temperature and thermal time constant of C3 and C4 species exhibited no significant relationship with seed mass. The results illustrate differences in germination characteristics between C3 and C4 species. Seed mass does not affect germination parameters, plant life cycle matters, however.

  15. A model for global diversity in response to temperature change over geological time scales, with reference to planktic organisms.

    De Blasio, Fabio Vittorio; Liow, Lee Hsiang; Schweder, Tore; De Blasio, Birgitte Freiesleben

    2015-01-21

    There are strong propositions in the literature that abiotic factors override biotic drivers of diversity on time scales of the fossil record. In order to study the interaction of biotic and abiotic forces on long term changes, we devise a spatio-temporal discrete-time Markov process model of macroevolution featuring population formation, speciation, migration and extinction, where populations are free to migrate. In our model, the extinction probability of these populations is controlled by latitudinally and temporally varying environment (temperature) and competition. Although our model is general enough to be applicable to disparate taxa, we explicitly address planktic organisms, which are assumed to disperse freely without barriers over the Earth's oceans. While rapid and drastic environmental changes tend to eliminate many species, generalists preferentially survive and hence leave generalist descendants. In other words, environmental fluctuations result in generalist descendants which are resilient to future environmental changes. Periods of stable or slow environmental changes lead to more specialist species and higher population numbers. Simulating Cenozoic diversity dynamics with both competition and the environmental component of our model produces diversity curves that reflect current empirical knowledge, which cannot be obtained with just one component. Our model predicts that the average temperature optimum at which planktic species thrive best has declined over the Neogene, following the trend of global average temperatures. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Human Dose-Response Data for Francisella tularensis and a Dose- and Time-Dependent Mathematical Model of Early-Phase Fever Associated with Tularemia After Inhalation Exposure.

    McClellan, Gene; Coleman, Margaret; Crary, David; Thurman, Alec; Thran, Brandolyn

    2018-04-25

    Military health risk assessors, medical planners, operational planners, and defense system developers require knowledge of human responses to doses of biothreat agents to support force health protection and chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear (CBRN) defense missions. This article reviews extensive data from 118 human volunteers administered aerosols of the bacterial agent Francisella tularensis, strain Schu S4, which causes tularemia. The data set includes incidence of early-phase febrile illness following administration of well-characterized inhaled doses of F. tularensis. Supplemental data on human body temperature profiles over time available from de-identified case reports is also presented. A unified, logically consistent model of early-phase febrile illness is described as a lognormal dose-response function for febrile illness linked with a stochastic time profile of fever. Three parameters are estimated from the human data to describe the time profile: incubation period or onset time for fever; rise time of fever; and near-maximum body temperature. Inhaled dose-dependence and variability are characterized for each of the three parameters. These parameters enable a stochastic model for the response of an exposed population through incorporation of individual-by-individual variability by drawing random samples from the statistical distributions of these three parameters for each individual. This model provides risk assessors and medical decisionmakers reliable representations of the predicted health impacts of early-phase febrile illness for as long as one week after aerosol exposures of human populations to F. tularensis. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

  17. Modelling bursty time series

    Vajna, Szabolcs; Kertész, János; Tóth, Bálint

    2013-01-01

    Many human-related activities show power-law decaying interevent time distribution with exponents usually varying between 1 and 2. We study a simple task-queuing model, which produces bursty time series due to the non-trivial dynamics of the task list. The model is characterized by a priority distribution as an input parameter, which describes the choice procedure from the list. We give exact results on the asymptotic behaviour of the model and we show that the interevent time distribution is power-law decaying for any kind of input distributions that remain normalizable in the infinite list limit, with exponents tunable between 1 and 2. The model satisfies a scaling law between the exponents of interevent time distribution (β) and autocorrelation function (α): α + β = 2. This law is general for renewal processes with power-law decaying interevent time distribution. We conclude that slowly decaying autocorrelation function indicates long-range dependence only if the scaling law is violated. (paper)

  18. Predicting response times for the Spotify backend

    Yanggratoke, Rerngvit; Kreitz, Gunnar; Goldmann, Mikael; Stadler, Rolf

    2012-01-01

    We model and evaluate the performance of a distributed key-value storage system that is part of the Spotify backend. Spotify is an on-demand music streaming service, offering low-latency access to a library of over 16 million tracks and serving over 10 million users currently. We first present a simplified model of the Spotify storage architecture, in order to make its analysis feasible. We then introduce an analytical model for the distribution of the response time, a key metric in the Spoti...

  19. Travel time reliability modeling.

    2011-07-01

    This report includes three papers as follows: : 1. Guo F., Rakha H., and Park S. (2010), "A Multi-state Travel Time Reliability Model," : Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, n 2188, : pp. 46-54. : 2. Park S.,...

  20. Modeling the Time-Course of Responses for the Border Ownership Selectivity Based on the Integration of Feedforward Signals and Visual Cortical Interactions.

    Wagatsuma, Nobuhiko; Sakai, Ko

    2016-01-01

    Border ownership (BO) indicates which side of a contour owns a border, and it plays a fundamental role in figure-ground segregation. The majority of neurons in V2 and V4 areas of monkeys exhibit BO selectivity. A physiological work reported that the responses of BO-selective cells show a rapid transition when a presented square is flipped along its classical receptive field (CRF) so that the opposite BO is presented, whereas the transition is significantly slower when a square with a clear BO is replaced by an ambiguous edge, e.g., when the square is enlarged greatly. The rapid transition seemed to reflect the influence of feedforward processing on BO selectivity. Herein, we investigated the role of feedforward signals and cortical interactions for time-courses in BO-selective cells by modeling a visual cortical network comprising V1, V2, and posterior parietal (PP) modules. In our computational model, the recurrent pathways among these modules gradually established the visual progress and the BO assignments. Feedforward inputs mainly determined the activities of these modules. Surrounding suppression/facilitation of early-level areas modulates the activities of V2 cells to provide BO signals. Weak feedback signals from the PP module enhanced the contrast gain extracted in V1, which underlies the attentional modulation of BO signals. Model simulations exhibited time-courses depending on the BO ambiguity, which were caused by the integration delay of V1 and V2 cells and the local inhibition therein given the difference in input stimulus. However, our model did not fully explain the characteristics of crucially slow transition: the responses of BO-selective physiological cells indicated the persistent activation several times longer than that of our model after the replacement with the ambiguous edge. Furthermore, the time-course of BO-selective model cells replicated the attentional modulation of response time in human psychophysical experiments. These attentional

  1. Modeling the Time-Course of Responses for the Border Ownership Selectivity Based on the Integration of Feedforward Signals and Visual Cortical Interactions

    Wagatsuma, Nobuhiko; Sakai, Ko

    2017-01-01

    Border ownership (BO) indicates which side of a contour owns a border, and it plays a fundamental role in figure-ground segregation. The majority of neurons in V2 and V4 areas of monkeys exhibit BO selectivity. A physiological work reported that the responses of BO-selective cells show a rapid transition when a presented square is flipped along its classical receptive field (CRF) so that the opposite BO is presented, whereas the transition is significantly slower when a square with a clear BO is replaced by an ambiguous edge, e.g., when the square is enlarged greatly. The rapid transition seemed to reflect the influence of feedforward processing on BO selectivity. Herein, we investigated the role of feedforward signals and cortical interactions for time-courses in BO-selective cells by modeling a visual cortical network comprising V1, V2, and posterior parietal (PP) modules. In our computational model, the recurrent pathways among these modules gradually established the visual progress and the BO assignments. Feedforward inputs mainly determined the activities of these modules. Surrounding suppression/facilitation of early-level areas modulates the activities of V2 cells to provide BO signals. Weak feedback signals from the PP module enhanced the contrast gain extracted in V1, which underlies the attentional modulation of BO signals. Model simulations exhibited time-courses depending on the BO ambiguity, which were caused by the integration delay of V1 and V2 cells and the local inhibition therein given the difference in input stimulus. However, our model did not fully explain the characteristics of crucially slow transition: the responses of BO-selective physiological cells indicated the persistent activation several times longer than that of our model after the replacement with the ambiguous edge. Furthermore, the time-course of BO-selective model cells replicated the attentional modulation of response time in human psychophysical experiments. These attentional

  2. A complex bid model and strategy for dispatchable loads in real-time market-based demand response

    Babar, M.; Nguyen, P.H.; Cuk, V.; Kamphuis, I.G.; Kling, W.L.

    2014-01-01

    The power system is moving into the new era of Smart Grid with the help of advance ICT and other developed technologies. These advancements made the demand response as an integral part of power and energy systems. Nowadays, the concept of Energy bidding is emerging in the Market-based Demand

  3. Coil response inversion for very early time modelling of helicopter-borne time-domain electromagnetic data and mapping of near-surface geological layers

    Schamper, Cyril Noel Clarence; Auken, Esben; Sørensen, Kurt Ingvard K.I.

    2014-01-01

    Very early times in the order of 2-3 μs from the end of the turn-off ramp for time-domain electromagnetic systems are crucial for obtaining a detailed resolution of the near-surface geology in the depth interval 0-20 m. For transient electromagnetic systems working in the off time, an electric cu...... resolution of shallow geological layers in the depth interval 0-20 m. This is proved by comparing results from the airborne electromagnetic survey to more than 100 km of Electrical Resistivity Tomography measured with 5 m electrode spacing.......Very early times in the order of 2-3 μs from the end of the turn-off ramp for time-domain electromagnetic systems are crucial for obtaining a detailed resolution of the near-surface geology in the depth interval 0-20 m. For transient electromagnetic systems working in the off time, an electric...

  4. Quantal Response: Nonparametric Modeling

    2017-01-01

    capture the behavior of observed phenomena. Higher-order polynomial and finite-dimensional spline basis models allow for more complicated responses as the...flexibility as these are nonparametric (not constrained to any particular functional form). These should be useful in identifying nonstandard behavior via... deviance ∆ = −2 log(Lreduced/Lfull) is defined in terms of the likelihood function L. For normal error, Lfull = 1, and based on Eq. A-2, we have log

  5. Beyond ROC Curvature: Strength Effects and Response Time Data Support Continuous-Evidence Models of Recognition Memory

    Dube, Chad; Starns, Jeffrey J.; Rotello, Caren M.; Ratcliff, Roger

    2012-01-01

    A classic question in the recognition memory literature is whether retrieval is best described as a continuous-evidence process consistent with signal detection theory (SDT), or a threshold process consistent with many multinomial processing tree (MPT) models. Because receiver operating characteristics (ROCs) based on confidence ratings are…

  6. Photoconductivity response time in amorphous semiconductors

    Adriaenssens, G. J.; Baranovskii, S. D.; Fuhs, W.; Jansen, J.; Öktü, Ö.

    1995-04-01

    The photoconductivity response time of amorphous semiconductors is examined theoretically on the basis of standard definitions for free- and trapped-carrier lifetimes, and experimentally for a series of a-Si1-xCx:H alloys with xgeneration rate and temperature. As no satisfactory agreement between models and experiments emerges, a simple theory is developed that can account for the experimental observations on the basis of the usual multiple-trappping ideas, provided a small probability of direct free-carrier recombination is included. The theory leads to a stretched-exponential photocurrent decay.

  7. Recovery and resilience after a nuclear power plant disaster: a medical decision model for managing an effective, timely, and balanced response.

    Coleman, C Norman; Blumenthal, Daniel J; Casto, Charles A; Alfant, Michael; Simon, Steven L; Remick, Alan L; Gepford, Heather J; Bowman, Thomas; Telfer, Jana L; Blumenthal, Pamela M; Noska, Michael A

    2013-04-01

    Resilience after a nuclear power plant or other radiation emergency requires response and recovery activities that are appropriately safe, timely, effective, and well organized. Timely informed decisions must be made, and the logic behind them communicated during the evolution of the incident before the final outcome is known. Based on our experiences in Tokyo responding to the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant crisis, we propose a real-time, medical decision model by which to make key health-related decisions that are central drivers to the overall incident management. Using this approach, on-site decision makers empowered to make interim decisions can act without undue delay using readily available and high-level scientific, medical, communication, and policy expertise. Ongoing assessment, consultation, and adaption to the changing conditions and additional information are additional key features. Given the central role of health and medical issues in all disasters, we propose that this medical decision model, which is compatible with the existing US National Response Framework structure, be considered for effective management of complex, large-scale, and large-consequence incidents.

  8. Responses to interracial interactions over time.

    Plant, E Ashby

    2004-11-01

    The current work tested and expanded on Plant and Devine's (2003) model of the antecedents and implications of interracial anxiety by examining people's experiences with interracial interactions at two time points. Study 1 explored non-Black people's responses to interactions with Black people and Study 2 explored Black people's responses to interactions with White people. Non-Black participants' expectancies about coming across as biased in interracial interactions and Black participants' expectancies about White people's bias predicted their interracial anxiety and whether they had positive interactions with outgroup members during the 2 weeks between assessments. Across both studies, interracial anxiety predicted the desire to avoid interactions with outgroup members. In addition, participants who were personally motivated to respond without prejudice reported more positive expectancies. The findings are discussed in terms of the implications for understanding the course and quality of interracial interactions.

  9. Galactomannan enzyme immunoassay and quantitative Real Time PCR as tools to evaluate the exposure and response in a rat model of aspergillosis after posaconazole prophylaxis.

    Cendejas-Bueno, Emilio; Forastiero, Agustina; Ruiz, Isabel; Mellado, Emilia; Buitrago, María José; Gavaldà, Joan; Gomez-Lopez, Alicia

    2016-11-01

    A steroid-immunosuppressed rat model of invasive pulmonary aspergillosis was use to examine the usefulness of galactomannan enzyme immunoassay (GM) and quantitative real time PCR (RT-PCR) in evaluating the association between response and exposure after a high dose of prophylactic posaconazole. Two different strains of Aspergillus fumigatus with different in vitro posaconazole susceptibility were used. Serum concentrations demonstrated similar posaconazole exposure for all treated animals. However, response to posaconazole relied on the in vitro susceptibility of the infecting strain. After prophylaxis, galactomannan index and fungal burden only decreased in those animals infected with the most susceptible strain. This study demonstrated that both biomarkers may be useful tools for predicting efficacy of antifungal compounds in prophylaxis. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier España, S.L.U. and Sociedad Española de Enfermedades Infecciosas y Microbiología Clínica. All rights reserved.

  10. Response time in online stated choice experiments

    Campbell, Danny; Mørkbak, Morten Raun; Olsen, Søren Bøye

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, we use paradata relating to the length of time respondents required in a self-administered online stated preference surveys. Although this issue has been previously explored, there is little guidance on how to identify and deal with ‘fast’ and ‘slow’ respondents. In this paper, we...... in Denmark. Results from our analysis corroborate that response latency has a bearing on the estimates of utility coefficients and the error variance. Although the results highlight the non-triviality of identifying fast and slow respondents, they signal the need to estimate a large number of candidate...... models to identify the most appropriate ‘fast’ and ‘slow’ thresholds. Not doing so is likely to lead to an inferior model and has repercussions for marginal willingness to pay estimates and choice predictions....

  11. Dynamic, in vivo, real-time detection of retinal oxidative status in a model of elevated intraocular pressure using a novel, reversibly responsive, profluorescent nitroxide probe.

    Rayner, Cassie L; Gole, Glen A; Bottle, Steven E; Barnett, Nigel L

    2014-12-01

    Changes to the redox status of biological systems have been implicated in the pathogenesis of a wide variety of disorders including cancer, Ischemia-reperfusion (I/R) injury and neurodegeneration. In times of metabolic stress e.g. ischaemia/reperfusion, reactive oxygen species (ROS) production overwhelms the intrinsic antioxidant capacity of the cell, damaging vital cellular components. The ability to quantify ROS changes in vivo, is therefore essential to understanding their biological role. Here we evaluate the suitability of a novel reversible profluorescent probe containing a redox-sensitive nitroxide moiety (methyl ester tetraethylrhodamine nitroxide, ME-TRN), as an in vivo, real-time reporter of retinal oxidative status. The reversible nature of the probe's response offers the unique advantage of being able to monitor redox changes in both oxidizing and reducing directions in real time. After intravitreal administration of the ME-TRN probe, we induced ROS production in rat retina using an established model of complete, acute retinal ischaemia followed by reperfusion. After restoration of blood flow, retinas were imaged using a Micron III rodent fundus fluorescence imaging system, to quantify the redox-response of the probe. Fluorescent intensity declined during the first 60 min of reperfusion. The ROS-induced change in probe fluorescence was ameliorated with the retinal antioxidant, lutein. Fluorescence intensity in non-Ischemia eyes did not change significantly. This new probe and imaging technology provide a reversible and real-time response to oxidative changes and may allow the in vivo testing of antioxidant therapies of potential benefit to a range of diseases linked to oxidative stress. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Modelling urban travel times

    Zheng, F.

    2011-01-01

    Urban travel times are intrinsically uncertain due to a lot of stochastic characteristics of traffic, especially at signalized intersections. A single travel time does not have much meaning and is not informative to drivers or traffic managers. The range of travel times is large such that certain

  13. Distinguishing Fast and Slow Processes in Accuracy - Response Time Data.

    Frederik Coomans

    Full Text Available We investigate the relation between speed and accuracy within problem solving in its simplest non-trivial form. We consider tests with only two items and code the item responses in two binary variables: one indicating the response accuracy, and one indicating the response speed. Despite being a very basic setup, it enables us to study item pairs stemming from a broad range of domains such as basic arithmetic, first language learning, intelligence-related problems, and chess, with large numbers of observations for every pair of problems under consideration. We carry out a survey over a large number of such item pairs and compare three types of psychometric accuracy-response time models present in the literature: two 'one-process' models, the first of which models accuracy and response time as conditionally independent and the second of which models accuracy and response time as conditionally dependent, and a 'two-process' model which models accuracy contingent on response time. We find that the data clearly violates the restrictions imposed by both one-process models and requires additional complexity which is parsimoniously provided by the two-process model. We supplement our survey with an analysis of the erroneous responses for an example item pair and demonstrate that there are very significant differences between the types of errors in fast and slow responses.

  14. Introduction to Time Series Modeling

    Kitagawa, Genshiro

    2010-01-01

    In time series modeling, the behavior of a certain phenomenon is expressed in relation to the past values of itself and other covariates. Since many important phenomena in statistical analysis are actually time series and the identification of conditional distribution of the phenomenon is an essential part of the statistical modeling, it is very important and useful to learn fundamental methods of time series modeling. Illustrating how to build models for time series using basic methods, "Introduction to Time Series Modeling" covers numerous time series models and the various tools f

  15. Investigations on response time of magnetorheological elastomer under compression mode

    Zhu, Mi; Yu, Miao; Qi, Song; Fu, Jie

    2018-05-01

    For efficient fast control of vibration system with magnetorheological elastomer (MRE)-based smart device, the response time of MRE material is the key parameter which directly affects the control performance of the vibration system. For a step coil current excitation, this paper proposed a Maxwell behavior model with time constant λ to describe the normal force response of MRE, and the response time of MRE was extracted through the separation of coil response time. Besides, the transient responses of MRE under compression mode were experimentally investigated, and the effects of (i) applied current, (ii) particle distribution and (iii) compressive strain on the response time of MRE were addressed. The results revealed that the three factors can affect the response characteristic of MRE quite significantly. Besides the intrinsic importance for contributing to the response evaluation and effective design of MRE device, this study may conduce to the optimal design of controller for MRE control system.

  16. Pavement Aging Model by Response Surface Modeling

    Manzano-Ramírez A.

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available In this work, surface course aging was modeled by Response Surface Methodology (RSM. The Marshall specimens were placed in a conventional oven for time and temperature conditions established on the basis of the environment factors of the region where the surface course is constructed by AC-20 from the Ing. Antonio M. Amor refinery. Volatilized material (VM, load resistance increment (ΔL and flow resistance increment (ΔF models were developed by the RSM. Cylindrical specimens with real aging were extracted from the surface course pilot to evaluate the error of the models. The VM model was adequate, in contrast (ΔL and (ΔF models were almost adequate with an error of 20 %, that was associated with the other environmental factors, which were not considered at the beginning of the research.

  17. Mixed Hitting-Time Models

    Abbring, J.H.

    2009-01-01

    We study mixed hitting-time models, which specify durations as the first time a Levy process (a continuous-time process with stationary and independent increments) crosses a heterogeneous threshold. Such models of substantial interest because they can be reduced from optimal-stopping models with

  18. Modeling seasonality in bimonthly time series

    Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans)

    1992-01-01

    textabstractA recurring issue in modeling seasonal time series variables is the choice of the most adequate model for the seasonal movements. One selection method for quarterly data is proposed in Hylleberg et al. (1990). Market response models are often constructed for bimonthly variables, and

  19. Cognitive Reflection, Decision Biases, and Response Times.

    Alós-Ferrer, Carlos; Garagnani, Michele; Hügelschäfer, Sabine

    2016-01-01

    We present novel evidence on response times and personality traits in standard questions from the decision-making literature where responses are relatively slow (medians around half a minute or above). To this end, we measured response times in a number of incentivized, framed items (decisions from description) including the Cognitive Reflection Test, two additional questions following the same logic, and a number of classic questions used to study decision biases in probability judgments (base-rate neglect, the conjunction fallacy, and the ratio bias). All questions create a conflict between an intuitive process and more deliberative thinking. For each item, we then created a non-conflict version by either making the intuitive impulse correct (resulting in an alignment question), shutting it down (creating a neutral question), or making it dominant (creating a heuristic question). For CRT questions, the differences in response times are as predicted by dual-process theories, with alignment and heuristic variants leading to faster responses and neutral questions to slower responses than the original, conflict questions. For decision biases (where responses are slower), evidence is mixed. To explore the possible influence of personality factors on both choices and response times, we used standard personality scales including the Rational-Experiential Inventory and the Big Five, and used them as controls in regression analysis.

  20. Modelling sequentially scored item responses

    Akkermans, W.

    2000-01-01

    The sequential model can be used to describe the variable resulting from a sequential scoring process. In this paper two more item response models are investigated with respect to their suitability for sequential scoring: the partial credit model and the graded response model. The investigation is

  1. Sensor response time monitoring using noise analysis

    Hashemian, H.M.; Thie, J.A.; Upadhyaya, B.R.; Holbert, K.E.

    1988-01-01

    Random noise techniques in nuclear power plants have been developed for system surveillance and for analysis of reactor core dynamics. The noise signals also contain information about sensor dynamics, and this can be extracted using frequency, amplitude and time domain analyses. Even though noise analysis has been used for sensor response time testing in some nuclear power plants, an adequate validation of this method has never been carried out. This paper presents the results of limited work recently performed to examine the validity of the noise analysis for sensor response time testing in nuclear power plants. The conclusion is that noise analysis has the potential for detecting gross changes in sensor response but it cannot be used for reliable measurement of response time until more laboratory and field experience is accumulated. The method is more advantageous for testing pressure sensors than it is for temperature sensors. This is because: 1) for temperature sensors, a method called Loop Current Step Response test is available which is quantitatively more exact than noise analysis, 2) no method currently exists for on-line testing of pressure transmitters other than the Power-Interrupt test which is applicable only to force balance pressure transmitters, and 3) pressure sensor response time is affected by sensing line degradation which is inherently taken into account by testing with noise analysis. (author)

  2. Real-time simulation of response to load variation for a ship reactor based on point-reactor double regions and lumped parameter model

    Wang Qiao; Zhang De [Department of Nuclear Energy Science and Engineering, Naval University of Engineering, Wuhan 430033 (China); Chen Wenzhen, E-mail: Cwz2@21cn.com [Department of Nuclear Energy Science and Engineering, Naval University of Engineering, Wuhan 430033 (China); Chen Zhiyun [Department of Nuclear Energy Science and Engineering, Naval University of Engineering, Wuhan 430033 (China)

    2011-05-15

    Research highlights: > We calculate the variation of main parameters of the reactor core by the Simulink. > The Simulink calculation software (SCS) can deal well with the stiff problem. > The high calculation precision is reached with less time, and the results can be easily displayed. > The quick calculation of ship reactor transient can be achieved by this method. - Abstract: Based on the point-reactor double regions and lumped parameter model, while the nuclear power plant second loop load is increased or decreased quickly, the Simulink calculation software (SCS) is adopted to calculate the variation of main physical and thermal-hydraulic parameters of the reactor core. The calculation results are compared with those of three-dimensional simulation program. It is indicated that the SCS can deal well with the stiff problem of the point-reactor kinetics equations and the coupled problem of neutronics and thermal-hydraulics. The high calculation precision can be reached with less time, and the quick calculation of parameters of response to load disturbance for the ship reactor can be achieved. The clear image of the calculation results can also be displayed quickly by the SCS, which is very significant and important to guarantee the reactor safety operation.

  3. Congestion Service Facilities Location Problem with Promise of Response Time

    Dandan Hu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In many services, promise of specific response time is advertised as a commitment by the service providers for the customer satisfaction. Congestion on service facilities could delay the delivery of the services and hurts the overall satisfaction. In this paper, congestion service facilities location problem with promise of response time is studied, and a mixed integer nonlinear programming model is presented with budget constrained. The facilities are modeled as M/M/c queues. The decision variables of the model are the locations of the service facilities and the number of servers at each facility. The objective function is to maximize the demands served within specific response time promised by the service provider. To solve this problem, we propose an algorithm that combines greedy and genetic algorithms. In order to verify the proposed algorithm, a lot of computational experiments are tested. And the results demonstrate that response time has a significant impact on location decision.

  4. Use of Response Time for Measuring Cognitive Ability

    Patrick C. Kyllonen

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to review some of the key literature on response time as it has played a role in cognitive ability measurement, providing a historical perspective as well as covering current research. We discuss the speed-level distinction, dimensions of speed and level in cognitive abilities frameworks, speed–accuracy tradeoff, approaches to addressing speed–accuracy tradeoff, analysis methods, particularly item response theory-based, response time models from cognitive psychology (ex-Gaussian function, and the diffusion model, and other uses of response time in testing besides ability measurement. We discuss several new methods that can be used to provide greater insight into the speed and level aspects of cognitive ability and speed–accuracy tradeoff decisions. These include item-level time limits, the use of feedback (e.g., CUSUMs, explicit scoring rules that combine speed and accuracy information (e.g., count down timing, and cognitive psychology models. We also review some of the key psychometric advances in modeling speed and level, which combine speed and ability measurement, address speed–accuracy tradeoff, allow for distinctions between response times on items responded to correctly and incorrectly, and integrate psychometrics with information-processing modeling. We suggest that the application of these models and tools is likely to advance both the science and measurement of human abilities for theory and applications.

  5. Modelling of Attentional Dwell Time

    Petersen, Anders; Kyllingsbæk, Søren; Bundesen, Claus

    2009-01-01

    . This confinement of attentional resources leads to the impairment in identifying the second target. With the model, we are able to produce close fits to data from the traditional two target dwell time paradigm. A dwell-time experiment with three targets has also been carried out for individual subjects...... and the model has been extended to fit these data....

  6. Cognitive Reflection, Decision Biases, and Response Times

    Carlos Alos-Ferrer

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available We present novel evidence on decision times and personality traits in standard questions from the decision-making literature where responses are relatively slow (medians around half a minute or above. To this end, we measured decision times in a number of incentivized, framed items (decisions from description including the Cognitive Reflection Test, two additional questions following the same logic, and a number of classic questions used to study decision biases in probability judgments (base-rate neglect, the conjunction fallacy, and the ratio bias. All questions create a conflict between an intuitive process and more deliberative thinking. For each item, we then created a non-conflict version by either making the intuitive impulse correct (resulting in an alignment question, shutting it down (creating a neutral question, or making it dominant (creating a heuristic question. For CRT questions, the differences in decision times are as predicted by dual-process theories, with alignment and heuristic variants leading to faster responses and neutral questions to slower responses than the original, conflict questions. For decision biases (where responses are slower, evidence is mixed. To explore the possible influence of personality factors on both choices and decision times, we used standard personality scales including the Rational-Experiential Inventory and the Big Five, and used the mas controls in regression analysis.

  7. Modeling of 5 ' nuclease real-time responses for optimization of a high-throughput enrichment PCR procedure for Salmonella enterica

    Knutsson, R.; Löfström, Charlotta; Grage, H.

    2002-01-01

    The performance of a 5' nuclease real-time PCR assay was studied to optimize an automated method of detection of preenriched Salmonella enterica cells in buffered peptone water (BPW). The concentrations and interactions of the PCR reagents were evaluated on the basis of two detection responses, t...

  8. Models for dependent time series

    Tunnicliffe Wilson, Granville; Haywood, John

    2015-01-01

    Models for Dependent Time Series addresses the issues that arise and the methodology that can be applied when the dependence between time series is described and modeled. Whether you work in the economic, physical, or life sciences, the book shows you how to draw meaningful, applicable, and statistically valid conclusions from multivariate (or vector) time series data.The first four chapters discuss the two main pillars of the subject that have been developed over the last 60 years: vector autoregressive modeling and multivariate spectral analysis. These chapters provide the foundational mater

  9. Impedance models in time domain

    Rienstra, S.W.

    2005-01-01

    Necessary conditions for an impedance function are derived. Methods available in the literature are discussed. A format with recipe is proposed for an exact impedance condition in time domain on a time grid, based on the Helmholtz resonator model. An explicit solution is given of a pulse reflecting

  10. The Effect of Sports and Physical Activity on Elderly Reaction Time and Response Time

    Abdolrahman Khezri

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: Physical activities ameliorate elderly motor and cognitive performance. The aim of this research is to study the effect of sport and physical activity on elderly reaction time and response time. Methods & Materials: The research method is causal-comparative and its statistical population consists of 60 active and non-active old males over 60 years residing at Mahabad city. Reaction time was measured by reaction timer apparatus, made in Takei Company (YB1000 model. Response time was measured via Nelson’s Choice- Response Movement Test. At first, reaction time and then response time was measured. For data analysis, descriptive statistic, K-S Test and One Sample T Test were used Results K-S Test show that research data was parametric. According to the results of this research, physical activity affected reaction time and response time. Results: of T test show that reaction time (P=0.000 and response time (P=0.000 of active group was statistically shorter than non- active group. Conclusion: The result of current study demonstrate that sport and physical activity, decrease reaction and response time via psychomotor and physiological positive changes.

  11. Time response measurements of LASL diagnostic detectors

    Hocker, L.P.

    1970-07-01

    The measurement and data analysis techniques developed under the Los Alamos Scientific Laboratory's detector improvement program were used to characterize the time and frequency response of selected LASL Compton, fluor-photodiode (NPD), and fluor-photomultiplier (NPM) diagnostic detectors. Data acquisition procedures and analysis methods presently in use are summarized, and detector time and frequency data obtained using the EG and G/AEC electron linear accelerator fast pulse (approximately 50 psec FWHM) as the incident radiation driving function are presented. (U.S.)

  12. Stochastic models for time series

    Doukhan, Paul

    2018-01-01

    This book presents essential tools for modelling non-linear time series. The first part of the book describes the main standard tools of probability and statistics that directly apply to the time series context to obtain a wide range of modelling possibilities. Functional estimation and bootstrap are discussed, and stationarity is reviewed. The second part describes a number of tools from Gaussian chaos and proposes a tour of linear time series models. It goes on to address nonlinearity from polynomial or chaotic models for which explicit expansions are available, then turns to Markov and non-Markov linear models and discusses Bernoulli shifts time series models. Finally, the volume focuses on the limit theory, starting with the ergodic theorem, which is seen as the first step for statistics of time series. It defines the distributional range to obtain generic tools for limit theory under long or short-range dependences (LRD/SRD) and explains examples of LRD behaviours. More general techniques (central limit ...

  13. Response Time Analysis of Distributed Web Systems Using QPNs

    Tomasz Rak

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A performance model is used for studying distributed Web systems. Performance evaluation is done by obtaining load test measurements. Queueing Petri Nets formalism supports modeling and performance analysis of distributed World Wide Web environments. The proposed distributed Web systems modeling and design methodology have been applied in the evaluation of several system architectures under different external loads. Furthermore, performance analysis is done to determine the system response time.

  14. Development of a nonlinear model for the prediction of response times of glucose affinity sensors using concanavalin A and dextran and the development of a differential osmotic glucose affinity sensor

    Reis, Louis G.

    With the increasing prevalence of diabetes in the United States and worldwide, blood glucose monitoring must be accurate and reliable. Current enzymatic sensors have numerous disadvantages that make them unreliable and unfavorable among patients. Recent research in glucose affinity sensors correct some of the problems that enzymatic sensors experience. Dextran and concanavalin A are two of the more common components used in glucose affinity sensors. When these sensors were first explored, a model was derived to predict the response time of a glucose affinity sensor using concanavalin A and dextran. However, the model assumed the system was linear and fell short of calculating times representative of the response times determined through experimental tests with the sensors. In this work, a new model that uses the Stokes-Einstein Equation to demonstrate the nonlinear behavior of the glucose affinity assay was developed to predict the response times of similar glucose affinity sensors. In addition to the device tested by the original linear model, additional devices were identified and tested with the proposed model. The nonlinear model was designed to accommodate the many different variations between systems. The proposed model was able to accurately calculate response times for sensors using the concanavalin A-dextran affinity assay with respect to the experimentally reported times by the independent research groups. Parameter studies using the nonlinear model were able to identify possible setbacks that could compromise the response of thesystem. Specifically, the model showed that the improper use of asymmetrical membranes could increase the response time by as little as 20% or more as the device is miniaturized. The model also demonstrated that systems using the concanavalin Adextran assay would experience higher response times in the hypoglycemic range. This work attempted to replicate and improve an osmotic glucose affinity sensor. The system was designed to

  15. Randomized Item Response Theory Models

    Fox, Gerardus J.A.

    2005-01-01

    The randomized response (RR) technique is often used to obtain answers on sensitive questions. A new method is developed to measure latent variables using the RR technique because direct questioning leads to biased results. Within the RR technique is the probability of the true response modeled by

  16. Space-time modeling of timber prices

    Mo Zhou; Joseph Buongriorno

    2006-01-01

    A space-time econometric model was developed for pine sawtimber timber prices of 21 geographically contiguous regions in the southern United States. The correlations between prices in neighboring regions helped predict future prices. The impulse response analysis showed that although southern pine sawtimber markets were not globally integrated, local supply and demand...

  17. Probabilistic Survivability Versus Time Modeling

    Joyner, James J., Sr.

    2016-01-01

    This presentation documents Kennedy Space Center's Independent Assessment work completed on three assessments for the Ground Systems Development and Operations (GSDO) Program to assist the Chief Safety and Mission Assurance Officer during key programmatic reviews and provided the GSDO Program with analyses of how egress time affects the likelihood of astronaut and ground worker survival during an emergency. For each assessment, a team developed probability distributions for hazard scenarios to address statistical uncertainty, resulting in survivability plots over time. The first assessment developed a mathematical model of probabilistic survivability versus time to reach a safe location using an ideal Emergency Egress System at Launch Complex 39B (LC-39B); the second used the first model to evaluate and compare various egress systems under consideration at LC-39B. The third used a modified LC-39B model to determine if a specific hazard decreased survivability more rapidly than other events during flight hardware processing in Kennedy's Vehicle Assembly Building.

  18. A comparison of two procedures for verbal response time fractionation

    Lotje evan der Linden

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available To describe the mental architecture between stimulus and response, cognitive models often divide the stimulus-response (SR interval into stages or modules. Predictions derived from such models are typically tested by focusing on the moment of response emission, through the analysis of response time (RT distributions. To go beyond the single response event, we recently proposed a method to fractionate verbal RTs into two physiologically defined intervals that are assumed to reflect different processing stages. The analysis of the durations of these intervals can be used to study the interaction between cognitive and motor processing during speech production. Our method is inspired by studies on decision making that used manual responses, in which RTs were fractionated into a premotor time (PMT, assumed to reflect cognitive processing, and a motor time (MT, assumed to reflect motor processing. In these studies, surface EMG activity was recorded from participants' response fingers. EMG onsets, reflecting the initiation of a motor response, were used as the point of fractionation. We adapted this method to speech-production research by measuring verbal responses in combination with EMG activity from facial muscles involved in articulation. However, in contrast to button-press tasks, the complex task of producing speech often resulted in multiple EMG bursts within the SR interval. This observation forced us to decide how to operationalize the point of fractionation: as the first EMG burst after stimulus onset (the stimulus-locked approach, or as the EMG burst that is coupled to the vocal response (the response-locked approach. The point of fractionation has direct consequences on how much of the overall task effect is captured by either interval. Therefore, the purpose of the current paper was to compare both onset-detection procedures in order to make an informed decision about which of the two is preferable. We concluded in favour or the response

  19. The response time distribution in a real-time database with optimistic concurrency control

    Sassen, S.A.E.; Wal, van der J.

    1996-01-01

    For a real-time shared-memory database with optimistic concurrency control, an approximation for the transaction response time distribution is obtained. The model assumes that transactions arrive at the database according to a Poisson process, that every transaction uses an equal number of

  20. The response-time distribution in a real-time database with optimistic concurrency control and constant execution times

    Sassen, S.A.E.; Wal, van der J.

    1997-01-01

    For a real-time shared-memory database with optimistic concurrency control, an approximation for the transaction response-time distribution is obtained. The model assumes that transactions arrive at the database according to a Poisson process, that every transaction uses an equal number of

  1. The response-time distribution in a real-time database with optimistic concurrency control and exponential execution times

    Sassen, S.A.E.; Wal, van der J.

    1997-01-01

    For a real-time shared-memory database with optimistic concurrency control, an approximation for the transaction response-time distribution is obtained. The model assumes that transactions arrive at the database according to a Poisson process, that every transaction takes an exponential execution

  2. Aircraft Fault Detection Using Real-Time Frequency Response Estimation

    Grauer, Jared A.

    2016-01-01

    A real-time method for estimating time-varying aircraft frequency responses from input and output measurements was demonstrated. The Bat-4 subscale airplane was used with NASA Langley Research Center's AirSTAR unmanned aerial flight test facility to conduct flight tests and collect data for dynamic modeling. Orthogonal phase-optimized multisine inputs, summed with pilot stick and pedal inputs, were used to excite the responses. The aircraft was tested in its normal configuration and with emulated failures, which included a stuck left ruddervator and an increased command path latency. No prior knowledge of a dynamic model was used or available for the estimation. The longitudinal short period dynamics were investigated in this work. Time-varying frequency responses and stability margins were tracked well using a 20 second sliding window of data, as compared to a post-flight analysis using output error parameter estimation and a low-order equivalent system model. This method could be used in a real-time fault detection system, or for other applications of dynamic modeling such as real-time verification of stability margins during envelope expansion tests.

  3. Time response of temperature sensors using neural networks

    Santos, Roberto Carlos dos

    2010-01-01

    In a PWR nuclear power plant, the primary coolant temperature and feedwater temperature are measured using RTDs (Resistance Temperature Detectors). These RTDs typically feed the plant's control and safety systems and must, therefore, be very accurate and have good dynamic performance. The response time of RTDs is characterized by a single parameter called the Plunge Time Constant defined as the time it takes the sensor output to achieve 63.2 percent of its final value after a step change in temperature. Nuclear reactor service conditions are difficult to reproduce in the laboratory, and an in-situ test method called LCSR (Loop Current Step Response) test was developed to measure remotely the response time of RTDs. >From this test, the time constant of the sensor is identified by means of the LCSR transformation that involves the dynamic response modal time constants determination using a nodal heat-transfer model. This calculation is not simple and requires specialized personnel. For this reason an Artificial Neural Network has been developed to predict the time constant of RTD from LCSR test transient. It eliminates the transformations involved in the LCSR application. A series of LCSR tests on RTDs generates the response transients of the sensors, the input data of the networks. Plunge tests are used to determine the time constants of the RTDs, the desired output of the ANN, trained using these sets of input/output data. This methodology was firstly applied to theoretical data simulating 10 RTDs with different time constant values, resulting in an average error of about 0.74 %. Experimental data from three different RTDs was used to predict time constant resulting in a maximum error of 3,34 %. The time constants values predicted from ANN were compared with those obtained from traditional way resulting in an average error of about 18 % and that shows the network is able to predict accurately the sensor time constant. (author)

  4. Flowering time response of Nasturtium (Tropaeolum majus L. cultivar ‘Empress of India’ to photoperiod, light integral and temperature using photo-thermal model

    Muhammad Munir

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Experiments were carried out to study flowering response of Nasturtium under four distinct controlled photoperiods (8, 11, 14, and 17 h.d-1, shading materials (0, 20, 30 and 40% and five temperature regimes (10, 15, 20, 25, and 30°C. A curvilinear facultative response was observed in all experiments. Cultivar ‘Empress of India’ took minimum time to flower when grown under a 17 hr-photoperiod (57 days however, it was significantly (P<0.05 increased when photoperiod decreased to 8h (83 days. Similarly, days taken to flowering were increased significantly (P<0.05 when plants were grown under low light integrals (40%, 30%, and 20% shade. Flowering was delayed up to 17 days when plants were grown under intense shade (40%. Temperature also had a significant effect on the developmental phases of flower as low temperature (10°C decreased flowering up to 46 days as compared to plants grown at 25°C. However, the quality of flowering plant (including plant height, spread and leaf number, data not shown was decreased at higher temperatures (25 and 30°C. Best quality plants were obtained when grown between 15 to 20°C. These findings revealed a prospect of plant scheduling of the flowering time of Nasturtium grown under short day photoperiod to extend their marketing period. A steady supply of this flowering annual can be maintained in the market by grown them under different shades (low light integrals. Similarly, an optimum growing temperature between 15-20°C would also be a beneficial effect on the quality of plant in the market.

  5. Radiogenomics and radiotherapy response modeling

    El Naqa, Issam; Kerns, Sarah L.; Coates, James; Luo, Yi; Speers, Corey; West, Catharine M. L.; Rosenstein, Barry S.; Ten Haken, Randall K.

    2017-08-01

    Advances in patient-specific information and biotechnology have contributed to a new era of computational medicine. Radiogenomics has emerged as a new field that investigates the role of genetics in treatment response to radiation therapy. Radiation oncology is currently attempting to embrace these recent advances and add to its rich history by maintaining its prominent role as a quantitative leader in oncologic response modeling. Here, we provide an overview of radiogenomics starting with genotyping, data aggregation, and application of different modeling approaches based on modifying traditional radiobiological methods or application of advanced machine learning techniques. We highlight the current status and potential for this new field to reshape the landscape of outcome modeling in radiotherapy and drive future advances in computational oncology.

  6. Time-dependent onshore tsunami response

    Apotsos, Alex; Gelfenbaum, Guy R.; Jaffe, Bruce E.

    2012-01-01

    While bulk measures of the onshore impact of a tsunami, including the maximum run-up elevation and inundation distance, are important for hazard planning, the temporal evolution of the onshore flow dynamics likely controls the extent of the onshore destruction and the erosion and deposition of sediment that occurs. However, the time-varying dynamics of actual tsunamis are even more difficult to measure in situ than the bulk parameters. Here, a numerical model based on the non-linear shallow water equations is used to examine the effects variations in the wave characteristics, bed slope, and bottom roughness have on the temporal evolution of the onshore flow. Model results indicate that the onshore flow dynamics vary significantly over the parameter space examined. For example, the flow dynamics over steep, smooth morphologies tend to be temporally symmetric, with similar magnitude velocities generated during the run-up and run-down phases of inundation. Conversely, on shallow, rough onshore topographies the flow dynamics tend to be temporally skewed toward the run-down phase of inundation, with the magnitude of the flow velocities during run-up and run-down being significantly different. Furthermore, for near-breaking tsunami waves inundating over steep topography, the flow velocity tends to accelerate almost instantaneously to a maximum and then decrease monotonically. Conversely, when very long waves inundate over shallow topography, the flow accelerates more slowly and can remain steady for a period of time before beginning to decelerate. These results indicate that a single set of assumptions concerning the onshore flow dynamics cannot be applied to all tsunamis, and site specific analyses may be required.

  7. On response time and cycle time distributions in a two-stage cyclic queue

    Boxma, O.J.; Donk, P.

    1982-01-01

    We consider a two-stage closed cyclic queueing model. For the case of an exponential server at each queue we derive the joint distribution of the successive response times of a custumer at both queues, using a reversibility argument. This joint distribution turns out to have a product form. The

  8. Modeling biological pathway dynamics with timed automata.

    Schivo, Stefano; Scholma, Jetse; Wanders, Brend; Urquidi Camacho, Ricardo A; van der Vet, Paul E; Karperien, Marcel; Langerak, Rom; van de Pol, Jaco; Post, Janine N

    2014-05-01

    Living cells are constantly subjected to a plethora of environmental stimuli that require integration into an appropriate cellular response. This integration takes place through signal transduction events that form tightly interconnected networks. The understanding of these networks requires capturing their dynamics through computational support and models. ANIMO (analysis of Networks with Interactive Modeling) is a tool that enables the construction and exploration of executable models of biological networks, helping to derive hypotheses and to plan wet-lab experiments. The tool is based on the formalism of Timed Automata, which can be analyzed via the UPPAAL model checker. Thanks to Timed Automata, we can provide a formal semantics for the domain-specific language used to represent signaling networks. This enforces precision and uniformity in the definition of signaling pathways, contributing to the integration of isolated signaling events into complex network models. We propose an approach to discretization of reaction kinetics that allows us to efficiently use UPPAAL as the computational engine to explore the dynamic behavior of the network of interest. A user-friendly interface hides the use of Timed Automata from the user, while keeping the expressive power intact. Abstraction to single-parameter kinetics speeds up construction of models that remain faithful enough to provide meaningful insight. The resulting dynamic behavior of the network components is displayed graphically, allowing for an intuitive and interactive modeling experience.

  9. Preference as a Function of Active Interresponse Times: A Test of the Active Time Model

    Misak, Paul; Cleaveland, J. Mark

    2011-01-01

    In this article, we describe a test of the active time model for concurrent variable interval (VI) choice. The active time model (ATM) suggests that the time since the most recent response is one of the variables controlling choice in concurrent VI VI schedules of reinforcement. In our experiment, pigeons were trained in a multiple concurrent…

  10. Capturing Real-Time Data in Disaster Response Logistics

    Kezban Yagci Sokat

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The volume, accuracy, accessibility and level of detail of near real-time data emerging from disaster-affected regions continue to significantly improve. Integration of dynamically evolving in-field data is an important, yet often overlooked, component of the humanitarian logistics models. In this paper, we present a framework for real-time humanitarian logistics data focused on use in mathematical modeling along with modeling implications of this framework. We also discuss how one might measure the attributes of the framework and describe the application of the presented framework to a case study of near real-time data collection in the days following the landfall of Typhoon Haiyan. We detail our first-hand experience of capturing data as the post-disaster response unfolds starting on November 10, 2013 until March 31, 2014 and assess the characteristics and evolution of data pertaining to humanitarian logistics modeling using the proposed framework. The presented logistical content analysis examines the availability of data and informs modelers about the current state of near real-time data. This analysis illustrates what data is available, how early it is available, and how data changes after the disaster. The study describes how our humanitarian logistics team approached the emergence of dynamic online data after the disaster and the challenges faced during the collection process, as well as recommendations to address these challenges in the future (when possible from an academic humanitarian logistics perspective.

  11. The link between response time and preference, variance and processing heterogeneity in stated choice experiments

    Campbell, Danny; Mørkbak, Morten Raun; Olsen, Søren Bøye

    2018-01-01

    In this article we utilize the time respondents require to answer a self-administered online stated preference survey. While the effects of response time have been previously explored, this article proposes a different approach that explicitly recognizes the highly equivocal relationship between ...... between response time and utility coefficients, error variance and processing strategies. Our results thus emphasize the importance of considering response time when modeling stated choice data....... response time and respondents' choices. In particular, we attempt to disentangle preference, variance and processing heterogeneity and explore whether response time helps to explain these three types of heterogeneity. For this, we divide the data (ordered by response time) into approximately equal......-sized subsets, and then derive different class membership probabilities for each subset. We estimate a large number of candidate models and subsequently conduct a frequentist-based model averaging approach using information criteria to derive weights of evidence for each model. Our findings show a clear link...

  12. Aquatic emergency response model at the Savannah River Plant

    Hayes, D.W.

    1987-01-01

    The Savannah River Plant emergency response plans include a stream/river emergency response model to predict travel times, maximum concentrations, and concentration distributions as a function of time at selected downstream/river locations from each of the major SRP installations. The menu driven model can be operated from any of the terminals that are linked to the real-time computer monitoring system for emergency response

  13. The BCD of response time analysis in experimental economics.

    Spiliopoulos, Leonidas; Ortmann, Andreas

    2018-01-01

    For decisions in the wild, time is of the essence. Available decision time is often cut short through natural or artificial constraints, or is impinged upon by the opportunity cost of time. Experimental economists have only recently begun to conduct experiments with time constraints and to analyze response time (RT) data, in contrast to experimental psychologists. RT analysis has proven valuable for the identification of individual and strategic decision processes including identification of social preferences in the latter case, model comparison/selection, and the investigation of heuristics that combine speed and performance by exploiting environmental regularities. Here we focus on the benefits, challenges, and desiderata of RT analysis in strategic decision making. We argue that unlocking the potential of RT analysis requires the adoption of process-based models instead of outcome-based models, and discuss how RT in the wild can be captured by time-constrained experiments in the lab. We conclude that RT analysis holds considerable potential for experimental economics, deserves greater attention as a methodological tool, and promises important insights on strategic decision making in naturally occurring environments.

  14. Modeling Rabbit Responses to Single and Multiple Aerosol ...

    Journal Article Survival models are developed here to predict response and time-to-response for mortality in rabbits following exposures to single or multiple aerosol doses of Bacillus anthracis spores. Hazard function models were developed for a multiple dose dataset to predict the probability of death through specifying dose-response functions and the time between exposure and the time-to-death (TTD). Among the models developed, the best-fitting survival model (baseline model) has an exponential dose-response model with a Weibull TTD distribution. Alternative models assessed employ different underlying dose-response functions and use the assumption that, in a multiple dose scenario, earlier doses affect the hazard functions of each subsequent dose. In addition, published mechanistic models are analyzed and compared with models developed in this paper. None of the alternative models that were assessed provided a statistically significant improvement in fit over the baseline model. The general approach utilizes simple empirical data analysis to develop parsimonious models with limited reliance on mechanistic assumptions. The baseline model predicts TTDs consistent with reported results from three independent high-dose rabbit datasets. More accurate survival models depend upon future development of dose-response datasets specifically designed to assess potential multiple dose effects on response and time-to-response. The process used in this paper to dev

  15. Measuring older adults' sedentary time: reliability, validity, and responsiveness.

    Gardiner, Paul A; Clark, Bronwyn K; Healy, Genevieve N; Eakin, Elizabeth G; Winkler, Elisabeth A H; Owen, Neville

    2011-11-01

    With evidence that prolonged sitting has deleterious health consequences, decreasing sedentary time is a potentially important preventive health target. High-quality measures, particularly for use with older adults, who are the most sedentary population group, are needed to evaluate the effect of sedentary behavior interventions. We examined the reliability, validity, and responsiveness to change of a self-report sedentary behavior questionnaire that assessed time spent in behaviors common among older adults: watching television, computer use, reading, socializing, transport and hobbies, and a summary measure (total sedentary time). In the context of a sedentary behavior intervention, nonworking older adults (n = 48, age = 73 ± 8 yr (mean ± SD)) completed the questionnaire on three occasions during a 2-wk period (7 d between administrations) and wore an accelerometer (ActiGraph model GT1M) for two periods of 6 d. Test-retest reliability (for the individual items and the summary measure) and validity (self-reported total sedentary time compared with accelerometer-derived sedentary time) were assessed during the 1-wk preintervention period, using Spearman (ρ) correlations and 95% confidence intervals (CI). Responsiveness to change after the intervention was assessed using the responsiveness statistic (RS). Test-retest reliability was excellent for television viewing time (ρ (95% CI) = 0.78 (0.63-0.89)), computer use (ρ (95% CI) = 0.90 (0.83-0.94)), and reading (ρ (95% CI) = 0.77 (0.62-0.86)); acceptable for hobbies (ρ (95% CI) = 0.61 (0.39-0.76)); and poor for socializing and transport (ρ < 0.45). Total sedentary time had acceptable test-retest reliability (ρ (95% CI) = 0.52 (0.27-0.70)) and validity (ρ (95% CI) = 0.30 (0.02-0.54)). Self-report total sedentary time was similarly responsive to change (RS = 0.47) as accelerometer-derived sedentary time (RS = 0.39). The summary measure of total sedentary time has good repeatability and modest validity and is

  16. A MIXED MODEL ANALYSIS OF SOIL CO2 EFFLUX AND NIGHT-TIME RESPIRATION RESPONSES TO ELEVATED CO2 AND TEMPERATURE

    Abstract: We investigated the effects of elevated soil temperature and atmospheric CO2 on soil CO2 efflux and system respiration responses. The study was conducted in sun-lit controlled-environment chambers using two-year-old Douglas-fir seedlings grown in reconstructed litter-so...

  17. Ultimate response time of high electron mobility transistors

    Rudin, Sergey; Rupper, Greg; Shur, Michael

    2015-01-01

    We present theoretical studies of the response time of the two-dimensional gated electron gas to femtosecond pulses. Our hydrodynamic simulations show that the device response to a short pulse or a step-function signal is either smooth or oscillating time-decay at low and high mobility, μ, values, respectively. At small gate voltage swings, U 0  = U g  − U th , where U g is the gate voltage and U th is the threshold voltage, such that μU 0 /L < v s , where L is the channel length and v s is the effective electron saturation velocity, the decay time in the low mobility samples is on the order of L 2 /(μU 0 ), in agreement with the analytical drift model. However, the decay is preceded by a delay time on the order of L/s, where s is the plasma wave velocity. This delay is the ballistic transport signature in collision-dominated devices, which becomes important during very short time periods. In the high mobility devices, the period of the decaying oscillations is on the order of the plasma wave velocity transit time. Our analysis shows that short channel field effect transistors operating in the plasmonic regime can meet the requirements for applications as terahertz detectors, mixers, delay lines, and phase shifters in ultra high-speed wireless communication circuits

  18. Multiple Indicator Stationary Time Series Models.

    Sivo, Stephen A.

    2001-01-01

    Discusses the propriety and practical advantages of specifying multivariate time series models in the context of structural equation modeling for time series and longitudinal panel data. For time series data, the multiple indicator model specification improves on classical time series analysis. For panel data, the multiple indicator model…

  19. Response time patterns in a stated choice experiment

    Börjesson, Maria; Fosgerau, Mogens

    2015-01-01

    This paper studies how response times vary between unlabelled binary choice occasions in a stated choice (SC) experiment, with alternatives differing with respect to in-vehicle travel time and travel cost. The pattern of response times is interpreted as an indicator of the cognitive processes...... employed by the respondents when making their choices. We find clear signs of reference-dependence in response times in the form of a strong gain–loss asymmetry. Moreover, different patterns of response times for travel time and travel cost indicate that these attributes are processed in different ways...

  20. Time response measurements of pressure sensors using pink noise technique

    Pereira, Iraci Martinez; Santos, Roberto Carlos dos

    2009-01-01

    This work presents an experimental setup for Pink Noise method application on pressure transmitters' response times. The Pink Noise method consists on injecting artificial pressure noise into the pressure transmitter. The artificial pressure noise is generated using a current-to-pressure (I-to-P) converter, which is driven by a random noise signal generator. The output pressure transmitter noise is then analyzed using conventional Noise Analysis Technique. Noise signals may be interpreted using spectral techniques or empirical time series models. The frequency domain method consists of evaluating the Power Spectral Density (PSD) function. The information needed for time constant estimation can be obtained by fitting an all-pole transfer function to this power spectral density. (author)

  1. Real-time rockmass response from microseismics

    Andrew King; Michael Lofgren; Matt van de Werken [CSIRO Exploration and Mining (Australia)

    2009-06-15

    The primary objective of this project was to develop a prototype real-time microseismic monitoring system for strata control management and forewarning of geotechnical hazards. Power and communications problems have been addressed by developing a wirelessly connected network of solar-powered acquisition nodes, one at the top of each instrumented borehole. The open-source 'earthworm' earthquake acquisition software, which can run on different hardware platforms and use different acquisition cards, was modified for use in a coal environment by developing special new arrival-picking and event-location procedures. The system was field-trialled at Moranbah North mine. The acquisition software performed well, as did wireless communications and solar power. There were issues with the acquisition hardware selected, including problems with timing synchronisation, which is essential for seismic event location. Although these were fixed during the test, different hardware is likely to be used in future installations.

  2. Modelling structural systems for transient response analysis

    Melosh, R.J.

    1975-01-01

    This paper introduces and reports success of a direct means of determining the time periods in which a structural system behaves as a linear system. Numerical results are based on post fracture transient analyses of simplified nuclear piping systems. Knowledge of the linear response ranges will lead to improved analysis-test correlation and more efficient analyses. It permits direct use of data from physical tests in analysis and simplication of the analytical model and interpretation of its behavior. The paper presents a procedure for deducing linearity based on transient responses. Given the forcing functions and responses of discrete points of the system at various times, the process produces evidence of linearity and quantifies an adequate set of equations of motion. Results of use of the process with linear and nonlinear analyses of piping systems with damping illustrate its success. Results cover the application to data from mathematical system responses. The process is successfull with mathematical models. In loading ranges in which all modes are excited, eight digit accuracy of predictions are obtained from the equations of motion deduced. Small changes (less than 0.01%) in the norm of the transfer matrices are produced by manipulation errors for linear systems yielding evidence that nonlinearity is easily distinguished. Significant changes (greater than five %) are coincident with relatively large norms of the equilibrium correction vector in nonlinear analyses. The paper shows that deducing linearity and, when admissible, quantifying linear equations of motion from transient response data for piping systems can be achieved with accuracy comparable to that of response data

  3. Methods for analyzing occupational cohort data with application to lung cancer in US uranium miners: Techniques for fitting and checking exposure-time-response models

    Halpern, J.; Whittemore, A.S.

    1987-01-01

    Two methods were used to examine how lung cancer death rates vary with cumulative exposures to radiation and tobacco among uranium miners. The two methods produced similar results when death rate ratios were taken to be the product of radiation and tobacco effects. The estimates were discrepant when death rate ratios were taken to be the sum of radiation and tobacco effects. Both methods indicated better fit for the multiplicative model. It may be that cumulative exposures are inappropriate measures of the effects of radiation and tobacco on lung cancer death rates, as well as for other pollutants where the assumption of cumulative dose is the basis for risk assessments

  4. The Importance of Responsibility in Times of Crisis

    Jacob Dahl Rendtorff

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper I would like to show the importance of the concept of responsibility as the foundation of ethics in times of crisis in particular in the fields of politics and economics in the modern civilisation marked by globalization and technological progres. I consider the concept of responsibility as the key notion in order to understand the ethical duty in a modern technological civilisation. We can indeed observe a moralization of the concept of responsibility going beyond a strict legal definition in terms of imputability. The paper begins by discussing the humanistic foundations of such a concept of responsibility. It treats the historical origins of responsibility and it relates this concept to the concept of accountability. On the basis of this historical determination of the concept I would like to present the definition of the concept of responsibility as fundamental ethical principle that has increasing importance as the foundation of the principles of governance in modern welfare states. In this context the paper discusses the extension of the concept of responsibility towards institutional or corporate responsibility where responsibility does not only concerns the responsibility of individuals but also deals with the responsibility of institutional collectivities. In this way the paper is based on the following structure : 1 The ethical foundation of the concept of responsibility 2 Responsibility in technological civilisation 3 Political responsibility for good governance in the welfare state 4 Social responsibility of business corporations in times of globalization 5 Conclusion and discussion : changed conditions of responsibility in modern times.

  5. Quadratic Term Structure Models in Discrete Time

    Marco Realdon

    2006-01-01

    This paper extends the results on quadratic term structure models in continuos time to the discrete time setting. The continuos time setting can be seen as a special case of the discrete time one. Recursive closed form solutions for zero coupon bonds are provided even in the presence of multiple correlated underlying factors. Pricing bond options requires simple integration. Model parameters may well be time dependent without scuppering such tractability. Model estimation does not require a r...

  6. In vivo, noncontact, real-time, optical and spectroscopic assessment of the immediate local physiological response to spinal cord injury in a rat model

    Fillioe, Seth; Bishop, Kyle Kelly; Jannini, Alexander Vincent Struck; Kim, Jon; McDonough, Ricky; Ortiz, Steve; Goodisman, Jerry; Hasenwinkel, Julie; Chaiken, J.

    2018-02-01

    We report a small study to test a methodology for real-time probing of chemical and physical changes in spinal cords in the immediate aftermath of a localized contusive injury. Raman spectroscopy, optical profilimetry and scanning NIR autofluorescence images were obtained simultaneously in vivo, within a 3 x 7 mm field, on spinal cords that had been surgically exposed between T9 and T10. The collected data was used alone and/or combined in a unique algorithm. A total of six rats were studied in two N=3 groups i.e. Injured and Control. A single 830 nm laser (100 μm round spot) was either 1) spatially scanned across the cord or 2) held at a specified location relative to the injury for a longer period of time to improve signal to noise in the Raman spectra. Line scans reveal photobleaching effects and surface profiles possibly allowing identification of the anterior median longitudinal artery. Analysis of the Raman spectra suggest that the tissues were equally hypoxic for both the control and injured animals i.e. a possible artifact of anesthesia and surgery. On the other hand, only injured cords display Raman features possibly indicating that extensive, localized protein phosphorylation occurs in minutes following spinal cord trauma.

  7. Model Checking Real-Time Systems

    Bouyer, Patricia; Fahrenberg, Uli; Larsen, Kim Guldstrand

    2018-01-01

    This chapter surveys timed automata as a formalism for model checking real-time systems. We begin with introducing the model, as an extension of finite-state automata with real-valued variables for measuring time. We then present the main model-checking results in this framework, and give a hint...

  8. Response times in a two-node queueing network with feedback

    van der Mei, R.D.; Gijsen, B.M.M.; in 't Veld, N.; van den Berg, J.L.

    2002-01-01

    The study presented in this paper is motivated by the performance analysis of response times in distributed information systems, where transactions are handled by iterative server and database actions. We model system response times as sojourn times in a two-node open queueing network with a

  9. Response times in a two-node queueing network with feedback

    van der Mei, R.D.; Gijsen, B.M.M.; Gijsen, B.M.M.; in 't Veld, N.; van den Berg, Hans Leo

    The study presented in this paper is motivated by the performance analysis of response times in distributed information systems, where transactions are handled by iterative server and database actions. We model system response times as sojourn times in a two-node open queueing network with a

  10. Response times of operators in a control room

    Platz, O.; Rasmussen, J.; Skanborg, P.Z.

    1982-12-01

    A statistical analysis was made of operator response times recorded in the control room of a research reactor during the years 1972-1974. A homogeneity test revealed that the data consist of a mixture of populations. A small but statistically significant difference is found between day and night response times. Lognormal distributions are found to provide the best fit of the day and the night response times. (author)

  11. Time lags in biological models

    MacDonald, Norman

    1978-01-01

    In many biological models it is necessary to allow the rates of change of the variables to depend on the past history, rather than only the current values, of the variables. The models may require discrete lags, with the use of delay-differential equations, or distributed lags, with the use of integro-differential equations. In these lecture notes I discuss the reasons for including lags, especially distributed lags, in biological models. These reasons may be inherent in the system studied, or may be the result of simplifying assumptions made in the model used. I examine some of the techniques available for studying the solution of the equations. A large proportion of the material presented relates to a special method that can be applied to a particular class of distributed lags. This method uses an extended set of ordinary differential equations. I examine the local stability of equilibrium points, and the existence and frequency of periodic solutions. I discuss the qualitative effects of lags, and how these...

  12. Temperature responses to the 11 year solar cycle in the mesosphere from the 31 year (1979-2010) extended Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model simulations and a comparison with the 14 year (2002-2015) TIMED/SABER observations

    Gan, Quan; Du, Jian; Fomichev, Victor I.; Ward, William E.; Beagley, Stephen R.; Zhang, Shaodong; Yue, Jia

    2017-04-01

    A recent 31 year simulation (1979-2010) by extended Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (eCMAM30) and the 14 year (2002-2015) observation by the Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere and Dynamics/Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emssion Radiometry (TIMED/SABER) are utilized to investigate the temperature response to the 11 year solar cycle on the mesosphere. Overall, the zonal mean responses tend to increase with height, and the amplitudes are on the order of 1-2 K/100 solar flux unit (1 sfu = 10-22 W m-2 Hz-1) below 80 km and 2-4 K/100 sfu in the mesopause region (80-100 km) from the eCMAM30, comparatively weaker than those from the SABER except in the midlatitude lower mesosphere. A pretty good consistence takes place at around 75-80 km with a response of 1.5 K/100 sfu within 10°S/N. Also, a symmetric pattern of the responses about the equator agrees reasonably well between the two. It is noteworthy that the eCMAM30 displays an alternate structure with the upper stratospheric cooling and the lower mesospheric warming at midlatitudes of the winter hemisphere, in favor of the long-term Rayleigh lidar observation reported by the previous studies. Through diagnosing multiple dynamical parameters, it is manifested that this localized feature is induced by the anomalous residual circulation as a consequence of the wave-mean flow interaction during the solar maximum year.

  13. Modeling nonstationarity in space and time.

    Shand, Lyndsay; Li, Bo

    2017-09-01

    We propose to model a spatio-temporal random field that has nonstationary covariance structure in both space and time domains by applying the concept of the dimension expansion method in Bornn et al. (2012). Simulations are conducted for both separable and nonseparable space-time covariance models, and the model is also illustrated with a streamflow dataset. Both simulation and data analyses show that modeling nonstationarity in both space and time can improve the predictive performance over stationary covariance models or models that are nonstationary in space but stationary in time. © 2017, The International Biometric Society.

  14. A Comparison of Response Rate, Response Time, and Costs of Mail and Electronic Surveys.

    Shannon, David M.; Bradshaw, Carol C.

    2002-01-01

    Compared response rates, response time, and costs of mail and electronic surveys using a sample of 377 college faculty members. Mail surveys yielded a higher response rate and a lower rate of undeliverable surveys, but response time was longer and costs were higher than for electronic surveys. (SLD)

  15. Population-expression models of immune response

    Stromberg, Sean P; Antia, Rustom; Nemenman, Ilya

    2013-01-01

    The immune response to a pathogen has two basic features. The first is the expansion of a few pathogen-specific cells to form a population large enough to control the pathogen. The second is the process of differentiation of cells from an initial naive phenotype to an effector phenotype which controls the pathogen, and subsequently to a memory phenotype that is maintained and responsible for long-term protection. The expansion and the differentiation have been considered largely independently. Changes in cell populations are typically described using ecologically based ordinary differential equation models. In contrast, differentiation of single cells is studied within systems biology and is frequently modeled by considering changes in gene and protein expression in individual cells. Recent advances in experimental systems biology make available for the first time data to allow the coupling of population and high dimensional expression data of immune cells during infections. Here we describe and develop population-expression models which integrate these two processes into systems biology on the multicellular level. When translated into mathematical equations, these models result in non-conservative, non-local advection-diffusion equations. We describe situations where the population-expression approach can make correct inference from data while previous modeling approaches based on common simplifying assumptions would fail. We also explore how model reduction techniques can be used to build population-expression models, minimizing the complexity of the model while keeping the essential features of the system. While we consider problems in immunology in this paper, we expect population-expression models to be more broadly applicable. (paper)

  16. A novel trauma leadership model reflective of changing times.

    DʼHuyvetter, Cecile; Cogbill, Thomas H

    2014-01-01

    As a result of generational changes in the health care workforce, we sought to evaluate our current Trauma Medical Director Leadership model. We assessed the responsibilities, accountability, time requirements, cost, and provider satisfaction with the current leadership model. Three new providers who had recently completed fellowship training were hired, each with unique professional desires, skill sets, and experience. Our goal was to establish a comprehensive, cost-effective, accountable leadership model that enabled provider satisfaction and equalized leadership responsibilities. A 3-pronged team model was established with a Medical Director title and responsibilities rotating per the American College of Surgeons verification cycle to develop leadership skills and lessen hierarchical differences.

  17. Uncertainty analysis of accident notification time and emergency medical service response time in work zone traffic accidents.

    Meng, Qiang; Weng, Jinxian

    2013-01-01

    Taking into account the uncertainty caused by exogenous factors, the accident notification time (ANT) and emergency medical service (EMS) response time were modeled as 2 random variables following the lognormal distribution. Their mean values and standard deviations were respectively formulated as the functions of environmental variables including crash time, road type, weekend, holiday, light condition, weather, and work zone type. Work zone traffic accident data from the Fatality Analysis Report System between 2002 and 2009 were utilized to determine the distributions of the ANT and the EMS arrival time in the United States. A mixed logistic regression model, taking into account the uncertainty associated with the ANT and the EMS response time, was developed to estimate the risk of death. The results showed that the uncertainty of the ANT was primarily influenced by crash time and road type, whereas the uncertainty of EMS response time is greatly affected by road type, weather, and light conditions. In addition, work zone accidents occurring during a holiday and in poor light conditions were found to be statistically associated with a longer mean ANT and longer EMS response time. The results also show that shortening the ANT was a more effective approach in reducing the risk of death than the EMS response time in work zones. To shorten the ANT and the EMS response time, work zone activities are suggested to be undertaken during non-holidays, during the daytime, and in good weather and light conditions.

  18. The Effect of Police Response Time on Crime Detection

    Blanes i Vidal, Jordi; Kirchmaier, Tom

    preferred estimate, a 10% increase in response time leads to a 4.6 percentage points decrease in the likelihood of detection. A faster response time also decreases the number of days that it takes for the police to detect a crime, conditional on eventual detection. We find stronger effects for thefts than...

  19. Bootstrapping a time series model

    Son, M.S.

    1984-01-01

    The bootstrap is a methodology for estimating standard errors. The idea is to use a Monte Carlo simulation experiment based on a nonparametric estimate of the error distribution. The main objective of this dissertation was to demonstrate the use of the bootstrap to attach standard errors to coefficient estimates and multi-period forecasts in a second-order autoregressive model fitted by least squares and maximum likelihood estimation. A secondary objective of this article was to present the bootstrap in the context of two econometric equations describing the unemployment rate and individual income tax in the state of Oklahoma. As it turns out, the conventional asymptotic formulae (both the least squares and maximum likelihood estimates) for estimating standard errors appear to overestimate the true standard errors. But there are two problems: 1) the first two observations y 1 and y 2 have been fixed, and 2) the residuals have not been inflated. After these two factors are considered in the trial and bootstrap experiment, both the conventional maximum likelihood and bootstrap estimates of the standard errors appear to be performing quite well. At present, there does not seem to be a good rule of thumb for deciding when the conventional asymptotic formulae will give acceptable results

  20. Lag space estimation in time series modelling

    Goutte, Cyril

    1997-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to investigate some techniques for finding the relevant lag-space, i.e. input information, for time series modelling. This is an important aspect of time series modelling, as it conditions the design of the model through the regressor vector a.k.a. the input layer...

  1. Time-Weighted Balanced Stochastic Model Reduction

    Tahavori, Maryamsadat; Shaker, Hamid Reza

    2011-01-01

    A new relative error model reduction technique for linear time invariant (LTI) systems is proposed in this paper. Both continuous and discrete time systems can be reduced within this framework. The proposed model reduction method is mainly based upon time-weighted balanced truncation and a recently...

  2. STRESS RESPONSE STUDIES USING ANIMAL MODELS

    This presentation will provide the evidence that ozone exposure in animal models induce neuroendocrine stress response and this stress response modulates lung injury and inflammation through adrenergic and glucocorticoid receptors.

  3. Response of subassembly model with internals

    Kennedy, J.M.; Belytschko, T.

    1977-01-01

    For the purpose of predicting the structural response in such accident environments, a program STRAW has been developed. This is a finite element program which can treat the structure-fluid system consisting of the coolant and the subassembly walls. Both material nonlinearities due to elastic-plastic response and geometric nonlinearities due to large displacements can be treated. The energy source can be represented either by a pressure-time history or an equation of state. Because of the lack of any simplifying symmetry in the geometry of the subassembly the program uses a quasi-three dimensional model. The cross section of the accident hexcan and the adjacent hexcan are modelled by a two-dimensional finite element mesh which represents the hexcan walls by flexural element and the internals by two-dimensional continuum elements. This mesh is coupled to a series of one-dimensional elements which represent the axial flow of the coolant and the longitudinal stiffness of the fuel pins and hexcan. The latter is of importance in the adjacent hexcan, for its lateral displacement is resisted entirely by this flexural behavior and its inertia. The adequacy of such quasi-three dimensional models has been examined by comparing the STRAW results against almost complete three-dimensonal analysis performed with the REXCAT program. In this program, the accident hexcan is represented in a true three-dimensional sense by plate-shell elements, whereas the internals are represented as axisymmetric. These comparisons indicate that the quasi-three-dimensional approach employed in STRAW is valid for a large range of pressure time histories; the fidelity of this model suffers primarily when pressure reaches a peak over a very short time, such as 5-10 microseconds

  4. Formal Modeling and Analysis of Timed Systems

    Larsen, Kim Guldstrand; Niebert, Peter

    This book constitutes the thoroughly refereed post-proceedings of the First International Workshop on Formal Modeling and Analysis of Timed Systems, FORMATS 2003, held in Marseille, France in September 2003. The 19 revised full papers presented together with an invited paper and the abstracts of ...... systems, discrete time systems, timed languages, and real-time operating systems....... of two invited talks were carefully selected from 36 submissions during two rounds of reviewing and improvement. All current aspects of formal method for modeling and analyzing timed systems are addressed; among the timed systems dealt with are timed automata, timed Petri nets, max-plus algebras, real-time......This book constitutes the thoroughly refereed post-proceedings of the First International Workshop on Formal Modeling and Analysis of Timed Systems, FORMATS 2003, held in Marseille, France in September 2003. The 19 revised full papers presented together with an invited paper and the abstracts...

  5. Reaction times to weak test lights. [psychophysics biological model

    Wandell, B. A.; Ahumada, P.; Welsh, D.

    1984-01-01

    Maloney and Wandell (1984) describe a model of the response of a single visual channel to weak test lights. The initial channel response is a linearly filtered version of the stimulus. The filter output is randomly sampled over time. Each time a sample occurs there is some probability increasing with the magnitude of the sampled response - that a discrete detection event is generated. Maloney and Wandell derive the statistics of the detection events. In this paper a test is conducted of the hypothesis that the reaction time responses to the presence of a weak test light are initiated at the first detection event. This makes it possible to extend the application of the model to lights that are slightly above threshold, but still within the linear operating range of the visual system. A parameter-free prediction of the model proposed by Maloney and Wandell for lights detected by this statistic is tested. The data are in agreement with the prediction.

  6. Response Styles in the Partial Credit Model

    Tutz, Gerhard; Schauberger, Gunther; Berger, Moritz

    2016-01-01

    In the modelling of ordinal responses in psychological measurement and survey- based research, response styles that represent specific answering patterns of respondents are typically ignored. One consequence is that estimates of item parameters can be poor and considerably biased. The focus here is on the modelling of a tendency to extreme or middle categories. An extension of the Partial Credit Model is proposed that explicitly accounts for this specific response style. In contrast to exi...

  7. Time series modeling, computation, and inference

    Prado, Raquel

    2010-01-01

    The authors systematically develop a state-of-the-art analysis and modeling of time series. … this book is well organized and well written. The authors present various statistical models for engineers to solve problems in time series analysis. Readers no doubt will learn state-of-the-art techniques from this book.-Hsun-Hsien Chang, Computing Reviews, March 2012My favorite chapters were on dynamic linear models and vector AR and vector ARMA models.-William Seaver, Technometrics, August 2011… a very modern entry to the field of time-series modelling, with a rich reference list of the current lit

  8. An Immune-inspired Adaptive Automated Intrusion Response System Model

    Ling-xi Peng

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available An immune-inspired adaptive automated intrusion response system model, named as , is proposed. The descriptions of self, non-self, immunocyte, memory detector, mature detector and immature detector of the network transactions, and the realtime network danger evaluation equations are given. Then, the automated response polices are adaptively performed or adjusted according to the realtime network danger. Thus, not only accurately evaluates the network attacks, but also greatly reduces the response times and response costs.

  9. [Construction of the Time Management Scale and examination of the influence of time management on psychological stress response].

    Imura, Tomoya; Takamura, Masahiro; Okazaki, Yoshihiro; Tokunaga, Satoko

    2016-10-01

    We developed a scale to measure time management and assessed its reliability and validity. We then used this scale to examine the impact of time management on psychological stress response. In Study 1-1, we developed the scale and assessed its internal consistency and criterion-related validity. Findings from a factor analysis revealed three elements of time management, “time estimation,” “time utilization,” and “taking each moment as it comes.” In Study 1-2, we assessed the scale’s test-retest reliability. In Study 1-3, we assessed the validity of the constructed scale. The results indicate that the time management scale has good reliability and validity. In Study 2, we performed a covariance structural analysis to verify our model that hypothesized that time management influences perceived control of time and psychological stress response, and perceived control of time influences psychological stress response. The results showed that time estimation increases the perceived control of time, which in turn decreases stress response. However, we also found that taking each moment as it comes reduces perceived control of time, which in turn increases stress response.

  10. A time-domain method to generate artificial time history from a given reference response spectrum

    Shin, Gang Sik [Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Song, Oh Seop [Dept. of Mechanical Engineering, Chungnam National University, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-06-15

    Seismic qualification by test is widely used as a way to show the integrity and functionality of equipment that is related to the overall safety of nuclear power plants. Another means of seismic qualification is by direct integration analysis. Both approaches require a series of time histories as an input. However, in most cases, the possibility of using real earthquake data is limited. Thus, artificial time histories are widely used instead. In many cases, however, response spectra are given. Thus, most of the artificial time histories are generated from the given response spectra. Obtaining the response spectrum from a given time history is straightforward. However, the procedure for generating artificial time histories from a given response spectrum is difficult and complex to understand. Thus, this paper presents a simple time-domain method for generating a time history from a given response spectrum; the method was shown to satisfy conditions derived from nuclear regulatory guidance.

  11. A time-domain method to generate artificial time history from a given reference response spectrum

    Shin, Gang Sik; Song, Oh Seop

    2016-01-01

    Seismic qualification by test is widely used as a way to show the integrity and functionality of equipment that is related to the overall safety of nuclear power plants. Another means of seismic qualification is by direct integration analysis. Both approaches require a series of time histories as an input. However, in most cases, the possibility of using real earthquake data is limited. Thus, artificial time histories are widely used instead. In many cases, however, response spectra are given. Thus, most of the artificial time histories are generated from the given response spectra. Obtaining the response spectrum from a given time history is straightforward. However, the procedure for generating artificial time histories from a given response spectrum is difficult and complex to understand. Thus, this paper presents a simple time-domain method for generating a time history from a given response spectrum; the method was shown to satisfy conditions derived from nuclear regulatory guidance

  12. Stochastic Still Water Response Model

    Friis-Hansen, Peter; Ditlevsen, Ove Dalager

    2002-01-01

    In this study a stochastic field model for the still water loading is formulated where the statistics (mean value, standard deviation, and correlation) of the sectional forces are obtained by integration of the load field over the relevant part of the ship structure. The objective of the model is...... out that an important parameter of the stochastic cargo field model is the mean number of containers delivered by each customer.......In this study a stochastic field model for the still water loading is formulated where the statistics (mean value, standard deviation, and correlation) of the sectional forces are obtained by integration of the load field over the relevant part of the ship structure. The objective of the model...... is to establish the stochastic load field conditional on a given draft and trim of the vessel. The model contributes to a realistic modelling of the stochastic load processes to be used in a reliability evaluation of the ship hull. Emphasis is given to container vessels. The formulation of the model for obtaining...

  13. Prediction Models for Dynamic Demand Response

    Aman, Saima; Frincu, Marc; Chelmis, Charalampos; Noor, Muhammad; Simmhan, Yogesh; Prasanna, Viktor K.

    2015-11-02

    As Smart Grids move closer to dynamic curtailment programs, Demand Response (DR) events will become necessary not only on fixed time intervals and weekdays predetermined by static policies, but also during changing decision periods and weekends to react to real-time demand signals. Unique challenges arise in this context vis-a-vis demand prediction and curtailment estimation and the transformation of such tasks into an automated, efficient dynamic demand response (D2R) process. While existing work has concentrated on increasing the accuracy of prediction models for DR, there is a lack of studies for prediction models for D2R, which we address in this paper. Our first contribution is the formal definition of D2R, and the description of its challenges and requirements. Our second contribution is a feasibility analysis of very-short-term prediction of electricity consumption for D2R over a diverse, large-scale dataset that includes both small residential customers and large buildings. Our third, and major contribution is a set of insights into the predictability of electricity consumption in the context of D2R. Specifically, we focus on prediction models that can operate at a very small data granularity (here 15-min intervals), for both weekdays and weekends - all conditions that characterize scenarios for D2R. We find that short-term time series and simple averaging models used by Independent Service Operators and utilities achieve superior prediction accuracy. We also observe that workdays are more predictable than weekends and holiday. Also, smaller customers have large variation in consumption and are less predictable than larger buildings. Key implications of our findings are that better models are required for small customers and for non-workdays, both of which are critical for D2R. Also, prediction models require just few days’ worth of data indicating that small amounts of

  14. Discounting Models for Outcomes over Continuous Time

    Harvey, Charles M.; Østerdal, Lars Peter

    Events that occur over a period of time can be described either as sequences of outcomes at discrete times or as functions of outcomes in an interval of time. This paper presents discounting models for events of the latter type. Conditions on preferences are shown to be satisfied if and only if t...... if the preferences are represented by a function that is an integral of a discounting function times a scale defined on outcomes at instants of time....

  15. The Importance of Responsibility in Times of Crisis

    Jacob Dahl Rendtorff

    2014-01-01

    In this paper I would like to show the importance of the concept of responsibility as the foundation of ethics in times of crisis in particular in the fields of politics and economics in the modern civilisation marked by globalization and technological progres. I consider the concept of responsibility as the key notion in order to understand the ethical duty in a modern technological civilisation. We can indeed observe a moralization of the concept of responsibility going beyond a strict lega...

  16. Response of orthotropic micropolar elastic medium due to time ...

    R. Narasimhan (Krishtel eMaging) 1461 1996 Oct 15 13:05:22

    namic response of anisotropic continuum has received the attention of ... linear theory of micropolar elasticity and bending of orthotropic micropolar ... medium due to time harmonic concentrated load, the continuum is divided into two half-.

  17. On discrete models of space-time

    Horzela, A.; Kempczynski, J.; Kapuscik, E.; Georgia Univ., Athens, GA; Uzes, Ch.

    1992-02-01

    Analyzing the Einstein radiolocation method we come to the conclusion that results of any measurement of space-time coordinates should be expressed in terms of rational numbers. We show that this property is Lorentz invariant and may be used in the construction of discrete models of space-time different from the models of the lattice type constructed in the process of discretization of continuous models. (author)

  18. Peripheral visual response time and visual display layout

    Haines, R. F.

    1974-01-01

    Experiments were performed on a group of 42 subjects in a study of their peripheral visual response time to visual signals under positive acceleration, during prolonged bedrest, at passive 70 deg headup body lift, under exposures to high air temperatures and high luminance levels, and under normal stress-free laboratory conditions. Diagrams are plotted for mean response times to white, red, yellow, green, and blue stimuli under different conditions.

  19. Experience with RTD response time testing in nuclear power plants

    Hashemian, H.M.; Kerlin, T.W.

    1985-01-01

    The reactor coolant temperatures in pressurized water reactors are measured with platinum resistance temperature detectors (RTDs). The information furnished by these RTDs is used for plant protection as well as control. As a part of the plant protection system, the RTDs must respond to temperature changes in a timely fashion. The RTD response time requirements are different for the various plant types. These requirements are specified in the plant technical specifications in terms of an RTd time constant. The current time constant requirements for nuclear plant RTDs varies from 0.5 seconds to 13.0 seconds depending on the type of the plant. Therefore, different types of RTDs are used in different plants to achieve the required time constants. In addition, in-situ response time tests are periodically performed on protective system RTDs to ensure that the in-service time constants are within acceptable limits as the plant is operating. The periodic testing is important because response time degradation may occur while the RTD ages in the process. Recent response time tests in operating plants revealed unacceptable time constants for several protection system RTDs. As a result, these plants had to be shut down to resolve the problem which in one case was due to improper installation and in another case was because of degradation of a thermal compound used in the thermowell

  20. Linear system identification via backward-time observer models

    Juang, Jer-Nan; Phan, Minh

    1993-01-01

    This paper presents an algorithm to identify a state-space model of a linear system using a backward-time approach. The procedure consists of three basic steps. First, the Markov parameters of a backward-time observer are computed from experimental input-output data. Second, the backward-time observer Markov parameters are decomposed to obtain the backward-time system Markov parameters (backward-time pulse response samples) from which a backward-time state-space model is realized using the Eigensystem Realization Algorithm. Third, the obtained backward-time state space model is converted to the usual forward-time representation. Stochastic properties of this approach will be discussed. Experimental results are given to illustrate when and to what extent this concept works.

  1. Survey of time preference, delay discounting models

    John R. Doyle

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The paper surveys over twenty models of delay discounting (also known as temporal discounting, time preference, time discounting, that psychologists and economists have put forward to explain the way people actually trade off time and money. Using little more than the basic algebra of powers and logarithms, I show how the models are derived, what assumptions they are based upon, and how different models relate to each other. Rather than concentrate only on discount functions themselves, I show how discount functions may be manipulated to isolate rate parameters for each model. This approach, consistently applied, helps focus attention on the three main components in any discounting model: subjectively perceived money; subjectively perceived time; and how these elements are combined. We group models by the number of parameters that have to be estimated, which means our exposition follows a trajectory of increasing complexity to the models. However, as the story unfolds it becomes clear that most models fall into a smaller number of families. We also show how new models may be constructed by combining elements of different models. The surveyed models are: Exponential; Hyperbolic; Arithmetic; Hyperboloid (Green and Myerson, Rachlin; Loewenstein and Prelec Generalized Hyperboloid; quasi-Hyperbolic (also known as beta-delta discounting; Benhabib et al's fixed cost; Benhabib et al's Exponential / Hyperbolic / quasi-Hyperbolic; Read's discounting fractions; Roelofsma's exponential time; Scholten and Read's discounting-by-intervals (DBI; Ebert and Prelec's constant sensitivity (CS; Bleichrodt et al.'s constant absolute decreasing impatience (CADI; Bleichrodt et al.'s constant relative decreasing impatience (CRDI; Green, Myerson, and Macaux's hyperboloid over intervals models; Killeen's additive utility; size-sensitive additive utility; Yi, Landes, and Bickel's memory trace models; McClure et al.'s two exponentials; and Scholten and Read's trade

  2. Forecasting with nonlinear time series models

    Kock, Anders Bredahl; Teräsvirta, Timo

    In this paper, nonlinear models are restricted to mean nonlinear parametric models. Several such models popular in time series econo- metrics are presented and some of their properties discussed. This in- cludes two models based on universal approximators: the Kolmogorov- Gabor polynomial model...... applied to economic fore- casting problems, is briefly highlighted. A number of large published studies comparing macroeconomic forecasts obtained using different time series models are discussed, and the paper also contains a small simulation study comparing recursive and direct forecasts in a partic...... and two versions of a simple artificial neural network model. Techniques for generating multi-period forecasts from nonlinear models recursively are considered, and the direct (non-recursive) method for this purpose is mentioned as well. Forecasting with com- plex dynamic systems, albeit less frequently...

  3. A semi-parametric within-subject mixture approach to the analyses of responses and response times.

    Molenaar, Dylan; Bolsinova, Maria; Vermunt, Jeroen K

    2018-05-01

    In item response theory, modelling the item response times in addition to the item responses may improve the detection of possible between- and within-subject differences in the process that resulted in the responses. For instance, if respondents rely on rapid guessing on some items but not on all, the joint distribution of the responses and response times will be a multivariate within-subject mixture distribution. Suitable parametric methods to detect these within-subject differences have been proposed. In these approaches, a distribution needs to be assumed for the within-class response times. In this paper, it is demonstrated that these parametric within-subject approaches may produce false positives and biased parameter estimates if the assumption concerning the response time distribution is violated. A semi-parametric approach is proposed which resorts to categorized response times. This approach is shown to hardly produce false positives and parameter bias. In addition, the semi-parametric approach results in approximately the same power as the parametric approach. © 2017 The British Psychological Society.

  4. Bayesian Model Selection under Time Constraints

    Hoege, M.; Nowak, W.; Illman, W. A.

    2017-12-01

    Bayesian model selection (BMS) provides a consistent framework for rating and comparing models in multi-model inference. In cases where models of vastly different complexity compete with each other, we also face vastly different computational runtimes of such models. For instance, time series of a quantity of interest can be simulated by an autoregressive process model that takes even less than a second for one run, or by a partial differential equations-based model with runtimes up to several hours or even days. The classical BMS is based on a quantity called Bayesian model evidence (BME). It determines the model weights in the selection process and resembles a trade-off between bias of a model and its complexity. However, in practice, the runtime of models is another weight relevant factor for model selection. Hence, we believe that it should be included, leading to an overall trade-off problem between bias, variance and computing effort. We approach this triple trade-off from the viewpoint of our ability to generate realizations of the models under a given computational budget. One way to obtain BME values is through sampling-based integration techniques. We argue with the fact that more expensive models can be sampled much less under time constraints than faster models (in straight proportion to their runtime). The computed evidence in favor of a more expensive model is statistically less significant than the evidence computed in favor of a faster model, since sampling-based strategies are always subject to statistical sampling error. We present a straightforward way to include this misbalance into the model weights that are the basis for model selection. Our approach follows directly from the idea of insufficient significance. It is based on a computationally cheap bootstrapping error estimate of model evidence and is easy to implement. The approach is illustrated in a small synthetic modeling study.

  5. Calibration of the time response functions of a quenched plastic scintillator for neutron time of flight

    Chen, J B; Peng, H S; Tang, C H; Zhang, B H; Ding, Y K; Chen, M; Chen, H S; Li, C G; Wen, T S; Yu, R Z

    2002-01-01

    The time response functions of an ultrafast quenched plastic scintillation detector used to measure neutron time of flight spectra were calibrated by utilizing cosmic rays and implosion neutrons from DT-filled capsules at the Shenguang II laser facility. These sources could be regarded as delta function pulses due to their much narrower time widths than those of the time response functions of the detection system. The results showed that the detector responses to DT neutrons and to cosmic rays were 1.18 and 0.96 ns FWHM, respectively.

  6. Conceptual Modeling of Time-Varying Information

    Gregersen, Heidi; Jensen, Christian S.

    2004-01-01

    A wide range of database applications manage information that varies over time. Many of the underlying database schemas of these were designed using the Entity-Relationship (ER) model. In the research community as well as in industry, it is common knowledge that the temporal aspects of the mini......-world are important, but difficult to capture using the ER model. Several enhancements to the ER model have been proposed in an attempt to support the modeling of temporal aspects of information. Common to the existing temporally extended ER models, few or no specific requirements to the models were given...

  7. Modeling of Volatility with Non-linear Time Series Model

    Kim Song Yon; Kim Mun Chol

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, non-linear time series models are used to describe volatility in financial time series data. To describe volatility, two of the non-linear time series are combined into form TAR (Threshold Auto-Regressive Model) with AARCH (Asymmetric Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) error term and its parameter estimation is studied.

  8. A model of interval timing by neural integration.

    Simen, Patrick; Balci, Fuat; de Souza, Laura; Cohen, Jonathan D; Holmes, Philip

    2011-06-22

    We show that simple assumptions about neural processing lead to a model of interval timing as a temporal integration process, in which a noisy firing-rate representation of time rises linearly on average toward a response threshold over the course of an interval. Our assumptions include: that neural spike trains are approximately independent Poisson processes, that correlations among them can be largely cancelled by balancing excitation and inhibition, that neural populations can act as integrators, and that the objective of timed behavior is maximal accuracy and minimal variance. The model accounts for a variety of physiological and behavioral findings in rodents, monkeys, and humans, including ramping firing rates between the onset of reward-predicting cues and the receipt of delayed rewards, and universally scale-invariant response time distributions in interval timing tasks. It furthermore makes specific, well-supported predictions about the skewness of these distributions, a feature of timing data that is usually ignored. The model also incorporates a rapid (potentially one-shot) duration-learning procedure. Human behavioral data support the learning rule's predictions regarding learning speed in sequences of timed responses. These results suggest that simple, integration-based models should play as prominent a role in interval timing theory as they do in theories of perceptual decision making, and that a common neural mechanism may underlie both types of behavior.

  9. Constitutive model with time-dependent deformations

    Krogsbøll, Anette

    1998-01-01

    are common in time as well as size. This problem is adressed by means of a new constitutive model for soils. It is able to describe the behavior of soils at different deformation rates. The model defines time-dependent and stress-related deformations separately. They are related to each other and they occur...... was the difference in time scale between the geological process of deposition (millions of years) and the laboratory measurements of mechanical properties (minutes or hours). In addition, the time scale relevant to the production history of the oil field was interesting (days or years)....

  10. Search for an optimum time response of spark counters

    Devismes, A.; Finck, Ch.; Kress, T.; Gobbi, A.; Eschke, J.; Herrmann, N.; Hildenbrand, K.D.; Koczon, P.; Petrovici, M.

    2002-01-01

    A spark counter of the type developed by Pestov has been tested with the aim of searching for an optimum time response function, changing voltage, content of noble and quencher gases, pressure and energy-loss. Replacing the usual argon by neon has brought an improvement of the resolution and a significant reduction of tails in the time response function. It has been proven that a counter as long as 90 cm can deliver, using neon gas mixture, a time resolution σ<60 ps with about 1% absolute tail and an efficiency of about 90%

  11. Building Chaotic Model From Incomplete Time Series

    Siek, Michael; Solomatine, Dimitri

    2010-05-01

    This paper presents a number of novel techniques for building a predictive chaotic model from incomplete time series. A predictive chaotic model is built by reconstructing the time-delayed phase space from observed time series and the prediction is made by a global model or adaptive local models based on the dynamical neighbors found in the reconstructed phase space. In general, the building of any data-driven models depends on the completeness and quality of the data itself. However, the completeness of the data availability can not always be guaranteed since the measurement or data transmission is intermittently not working properly due to some reasons. We propose two main solutions dealing with incomplete time series: using imputing and non-imputing methods. For imputing methods, we utilized the interpolation methods (weighted sum of linear interpolations, Bayesian principle component analysis and cubic spline interpolation) and predictive models (neural network, kernel machine, chaotic model) for estimating the missing values. After imputing the missing values, the phase space reconstruction and chaotic model prediction are executed as a standard procedure. For non-imputing methods, we reconstructed the time-delayed phase space from observed time series with missing values. This reconstruction results in non-continuous trajectories. However, the local model prediction can still be made from the other dynamical neighbors reconstructed from non-missing values. We implemented and tested these methods to construct a chaotic model for predicting storm surges at Hoek van Holland as the entrance of Rotterdam Port. The hourly surge time series is available for duration of 1990-1996. For measuring the performance of the proposed methods, a synthetic time series with missing values generated by a particular random variable to the original (complete) time series is utilized. There exist two main performance measures used in this work: (1) error measures between the actual

  12. Compiling models into real-time systems

    Dormoy, J.L.; Cherriaux, F.; Ancelin, J.

    1992-08-01

    This paper presents an architecture for building real-time systems from models, and model-compiling techniques. This has been applied for building a real-time model-based monitoring system for nuclear plants, called KSE, which is currently being used in two plants in France. We describe how we used various artificial intelligence techniques for building it: a model-based approach, a logical model of its operation, a declarative implementation of these models, and original knowledge-compiling techniques for automatically generating the real-time expert system from those models. Some of those techniques have just been borrowed from the literature, but we had to modify or invent other techniques which simply did not exist. We also discuss two important problems, which are often underestimated in the artificial intelligence literature: size, and errors. Our architecture, which could be used in other applications, combines the advantages of the model-based approach with the efficiency requirements of real-time applications, while in general model-based approaches present serious drawbacks on this point

  13. Compiling models into real-time systems

    Dormoy, J.L.; Cherriaux, F.; Ancelin, J.

    1992-08-01

    This paper presents an architecture for building real-time systems from models, and model-compiling techniques. This has been applied for building a real-time model-base monitoring system for nuclear plants, called KSE, which is currently being used in two plants in France. We describe how we used various artificial intelligence techniques for building it: a model-based approach, a logical model of its operation, a declarative implementation of these models, and original knowledge-compiling techniques for automatically generating the real-time expert system from those models. Some of those techniques have just been borrowed from the literature, but we had to modify or invent other techniques which simply did not exist. We also discuss two important problems, which are often underestimated in the artificial intelligence literature: size, and errors. Our architecture, which could be used in other applications, combines the advantages of the model-based approach with the efficiency requirements of real-time applications, while in general model-based approaches present serious drawbacks on this point

  14. Electricity price modeling with stochastic time change

    Borovkova, Svetlana; Schmeck, Maren Diane

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, we develop a novel approach to electricity price modeling, based on the powerful technique of stochastic time change. This technique allows us to incorporate the characteristic features of electricity prices (such as seasonal volatility, time varying mean reversion and seasonally occurring price spikes) into the model in an elegant and economically justifiable way. The stochastic time change introduces stochastic as well as deterministic (e.g., seasonal) features in the price process' volatility and in the jump component. We specify the base process as a mean reverting jump diffusion and the time change as an absolutely continuous stochastic process with seasonal component. The activity rate of the stochastic time change can be related to the factors that influence supply and demand. Here we use the temperature as a proxy for the demand and hence, as the driving factor of the stochastic time change, and show that this choice leads to realistic price paths. We derive properties of the resulting price process and develop the model calibration procedure. We calibrate the model to the historical EEX power prices and apply it to generating realistic price paths by Monte Carlo simulations. We show that the simulated price process matches the distributional characteristics of the observed electricity prices in periods of both high and low demand. - Highlights: • We develop a novel approach to electricity price modeling, based on the powerful technique of stochastic time change. • We incorporate the characteristic features of electricity prices, such as seasonal volatility and spikes into the model. • We use the temperature as a proxy for the demand and hence, as the driving factor of the stochastic time change • We derive properties of the resulting price process and develop the model calibration procedure. • We calibrate the model to the historical EEX power prices and apply it to generating realistic price paths.

  15. Conceptual question response times in Peer Instruction classrooms

    Kelly Miller

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Classroom response systems are widely used in interactive teaching environments as a way to engage students by asking them questions. Previous research on the time taken by students to respond to conceptual questions has yielded insights on how students think and change conceptions. We measure the amount of time students take to respond to in-class, conceptual questions [ConcepTests (CTs] in two introductory physics courses taught using Peer Instruction and use item response theory to determine the difficulty of the CTs. We examine response time differences between correct and incorrect answers both before and after the peer discussion for CTs of varying difficulty. We also determine the relationship between response time and student performance on a standardized test of incoming physics knowledge, precourse self-efficacy, and gender. Our data reveal three results of interest. First, response time for correct answers is significantly faster than for incorrect answers, both before and after peer discussion, especially for easy CTs. Second, students with greater incoming physics knowledge and higher self-efficacy respond faster in both rounds. Third, there is no gender difference in response rate after controlling for incoming physics knowledge scores, although males register significantly more attempts before committing to a final answer than do female students. These results provide insight into effective CT pacing during Peer Instruction. In particular, in order to maintain a pace that keeps everyone engaged, students should not be given too much time to respond. When around 80% of the answers are in, the ratio of correct to incorrect responses rapidly approaches levels indicating random guessing and instructors should close the poll.

  16. Performing dynamic time history analyses by extension of the response spectrum method

    Hulbert, G.M.

    1983-01-01

    A method is presented to calculate the dynamic time history response of finite-element models using results from response spectrum analyses. The proposed modified time history method does not represent a new mathamatical approach to dynamic analysis but suggests a more efficient ordering of the analytical equations and procedures. The modified time history method is considerably faster and less expensive to use than normal time hisory methods. This paper presents the theory and implementation of the modified time history approach along with comparisons of the modified and normal time history methods for a prototypic seismic piping design problem

  17. Accurate and efficient calculation of response times for groundwater flow

    Carr, Elliot J.; Simpson, Matthew J.

    2018-03-01

    We study measures of the amount of time required for transient flow in heterogeneous porous media to effectively reach steady state, also known as the response time. Here, we develop a new approach that extends the concept of mean action time. Previous applications of the theory of mean action time to estimate the response time use the first two central moments of the probability density function associated with the transition from the initial condition, at t = 0, to the steady state condition that arises in the long time limit, as t → ∞ . This previous approach leads to a computationally convenient estimation of the response time, but the accuracy can be poor. Here, we outline a powerful extension using the first k raw moments, showing how to produce an extremely accurate estimate by making use of asymptotic properties of the cumulative distribution function. Results are validated using an existing laboratory-scale data set describing flow in a homogeneous porous medium. In addition, we demonstrate how the results also apply to flow in heterogeneous porous media. Overall, the new method is: (i) extremely accurate; and (ii) computationally inexpensive. In fact, the computational cost of the new method is orders of magnitude less than the computational effort required to study the response time by solving the transient flow equation. Furthermore, the approach provides a rigorous mathematical connection with the heuristic argument that the response time for flow in a homogeneous porous medium is proportional to L2 / D , where L is a relevant length scale, and D is the aquifer diffusivity. Here, we extend such heuristic arguments by providing a clear mathematical definition of the proportionality constant.

  18. Time series modeling in traffic safety research.

    Lavrenz, Steven M; Vlahogianni, Eleni I; Gkritza, Konstantina; Ke, Yue

    2018-08-01

    The use of statistical models for analyzing traffic safety (crash) data has been well-established. However, time series techniques have traditionally been underrepresented in the corresponding literature, due to challenges in data collection, along with a limited knowledge of proper methodology. In recent years, new types of high-resolution traffic safety data, especially in measuring driver behavior, have made time series modeling techniques an increasingly salient topic of study. Yet there remains a dearth of information to guide analysts in their use. This paper provides an overview of the state of the art in using time series models in traffic safety research, and discusses some of the fundamental techniques and considerations in classic time series modeling. It also presents ongoing and future opportunities for expanding the use of time series models, and explores newer modeling techniques, including computational intelligence models, which hold promise in effectively handling ever-larger data sets. The information contained herein is meant to guide safety researchers in understanding this broad area of transportation data analysis, and provide a framework for understanding safety trends that can influence policy-making. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Reduced computational cost in the calculation of worst case response time for real time systems

    Urriza, José M.; Schorb, Lucas; Orozco, Javier D.; Cayssials, Ricardo

    2009-01-01

    Modern Real Time Operating Systems require reducing computational costs even though the microprocessors become more powerful each day. It is usual that Real Time Operating Systems for embedded systems have advance features to administrate the resources of the applications that they support. In order to guarantee either the schedulability of the system or the schedulability of a new task in a dynamic Real Time System, it is necessary to know the Worst Case Response Time of the Real Time tasks ...

  20. Model for Managing Corporate Social Responsibility

    Tamara Vlastelica Bakić

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available As a crossfuncional process in the organization, effective management of corporate social responsibility requires a definition of strategies, programs and an action plan that structures this process from its initiation to the measurement of end effects. Academic literature on the topic of corporate social responsibility is mainly focused on the exploration of the business case for the concept, i.e., the determination of effects of social responsibility on individual aspects of the business. Scientific research so far has shown not to have been committed to formalizing management concept in this domain to a satisfactory extent; it is for this reason that this paper attempts to present one model for managing corporate social responsibility. The model represents a contribution to the theory and business practice of corporate social responsibility, as it offers a strategic framework for systematic planning, implementation and evaluation of socially responsible activities and programs.

  1. Discrete-time rewards model-checked

    Larsen, K.G.; Andova, S.; Niebert, Peter; Hermanns, H.; Katoen, Joost P.

    2003-01-01

    This paper presents a model-checking approach for analyzing discrete-time Markov reward models. For this purpose, the temporal logic probabilistic CTL is extended with reward constraints. This allows to formulate complex measures – involving expected as well as accumulated rewards – in a precise and

  2. Modeling vector nonlinear time series using POLYMARS

    de Gooijer, J.G.; Ray, B.K.

    2003-01-01

    A modified multivariate adaptive regression splines method for modeling vector nonlinear time series is investigated. The method results in models that can capture certain types of vector self-exciting threshold autoregressive behavior, as well as provide good predictions for more general vector

  3. Forecasting with periodic autoregressive time series models

    Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans); R. Paap (Richard)

    1999-01-01

    textabstractThis paper is concerned with forecasting univariate seasonal time series data using periodic autoregressive models. We show how one should account for unit roots and deterministic terms when generating out-of-sample forecasts. We illustrate the models for various quarterly UK consumption

  4. Time versus frequency domain measurements: layered model ...

    ... their high frequency content while among TEM data sets with low frequency content, the averaging times for the FEM ellipticity were shorter than the TEM quality. Keywords: ellipticity, frequency domain, frequency electromagnetic method, model parameter, orientation error, time domain, transient electromagnetic method

  5. Modeling nonhomogeneous Markov processes via time transformation.

    Hubbard, R A; Inoue, L Y T; Fann, J R

    2008-09-01

    Longitudinal studies are a powerful tool for characterizing the course of chronic disease. These studies are usually carried out with subjects observed at periodic visits giving rise to panel data. Under this observation scheme the exact times of disease state transitions and sequence of disease states visited are unknown and Markov process models are often used to describe disease progression. Most applications of Markov process models rely on the assumption of time homogeneity, that is, that the transition rates are constant over time. This assumption is not satisfied when transition rates depend on time from the process origin. However, limited statistical tools are available for dealing with nonhomogeneity. We propose models in which the time scale of a nonhomogeneous Markov process is transformed to an operational time scale on which the process is homogeneous. We develop a method for jointly estimating the time transformation and the transition intensity matrix for the time transformed homogeneous process. We assess maximum likelihood estimation using the Fisher scoring algorithm via simulation studies and compare performance of our method to homogeneous and piecewise homogeneous models. We apply our methodology to a study of delirium progression in a cohort of stem cell transplantation recipients and show that our method identifies temporal trends in delirium incidence and recovery.

  6. Modeling discrete time-to-event data

    Tutz, Gerhard

    2016-01-01

    This book focuses on statistical methods for the analysis of discrete failure times. Failure time analysis is one of the most important fields in statistical research, with applications affecting a wide range of disciplines, in particular, demography, econometrics, epidemiology and clinical research. Although there are a large variety of statistical methods for failure time analysis, many techniques are designed for failure times that are measured on a continuous scale. In empirical studies, however, failure times are often discrete, either because they have been measured in intervals (e.g., quarterly or yearly) or because they have been rounded or grouped. The book covers well-established methods like life-table analysis and discrete hazard regression models, but also introduces state-of-the art techniques for model evaluation, nonparametric estimation and variable selection. Throughout, the methods are illustrated by real life applications, and relationships to survival analysis in continuous time are expla...

  7. The conceptual model of organization social responsibility

    LUO, Lan; WEI, Jingfu

    2014-01-01

    With the developing of the research of CSR, people more and more deeply noticethat the corporate should take responsibility. Whether other organizations besides corporatesshould not take responsibilities beyond their field? This paper puts forward theconcept of organization social responsibility on the basis of the concept of corporate socialresponsibility and other theories. And the conceptual models are built based on theconception, introducing the OSR from three angles: the types of organi...

  8. Elucidation of time-dependent systems biology cell response patterns with time course network enrichment

    Wiwie, Christian; Rauch, Alexander; Haakonsson, Anders

    2018-01-01

    , no methods exist to integrate time series data with networks, thus preventing the identification of time-dependent systems biology responses. We close this gap with Time Course Network Enrichment (TiCoNE). It combines a new kind of human-augmented clustering with a novel approach to network enrichment...

  9. Discrete-time modelling of musical instruments

    Vaelimaeki, Vesa; Pakarinen, Jyri; Erkut, Cumhur; Karjalainen, Matti

    2006-01-01

    This article describes physical modelling techniques that can be used for simulating musical instruments. The methods are closely related to digital signal processing. They discretize the system with respect to time, because the aim is to run the simulation using a computer. The physics-based modelling methods can be classified as mass-spring, modal, wave digital, finite difference, digital waveguide and source-filter models. We present the basic theory and a discussion on possible extensions for each modelling technique. For some methods, a simple model example is chosen from the existing literature demonstrating a typical use of the method. For instance, in the case of the digital waveguide modelling technique a vibrating string model is discussed, and in the case of the wave digital filter technique we present a classical piano hammer model. We tackle some nonlinear and time-varying models and include new results on the digital waveguide modelling of a nonlinear string. Current trends and future directions in physical modelling of musical instruments are discussed

  10. Constitutive modeling of shock response of PTFE

    Brown, Eric N [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Reanyansky, Anatoly D [DSTO, AUSTRALIA; Bourne, Neil K [AWE, UK; Millett, Jeremy C F [AWE, UK

    2009-01-01

    The PTFE (polytetrafluoroethylene) material is complex and attracts attention of the shock physics researchers because it has amorphous and crystalline components. In turn, the crystalline component has four known phases with the high pressure transition to phase III. At the same time, as has been recently studied using spectrometry, the crystalline region is growing with load. Stress and velocity shock-wave profiles acquired recently with embedded gauges demonstrate feature that may be related to impedance mismatches between the regions subjected to some transitions resulting in density and modulus variations. We consider the above mentioned amorphous-to-crystalline transition and the high pressure Phase II-to-III transitions as possible candidates for the analysis. The present work utilizes a multi-phase rate sensitive model to describe shock response of the PTFE material. One-dimensional experimental shock wave profiles are compared with calculated profiles with the kinetics describing the transitions. The objective of this study is to understand the role of the various transitions in the shock response of PTFE.

  11. Approaches to modeling the development of physiological stress responsivity.

    Hinnant, J Benjamin; Philbrook, Lauren E; Erath, Stephen A; El-Sheikh, Mona

    2018-05-01

    Influential biopsychosocial theories have proposed that some developmental periods in the lifespan are potential pivot points or opportunities for recalibration of stress response systems. To date, however, there have been few longitudinal studies of physiological stress responsivity and no studies comparing change in physiological stress responsivity across developmental periods. Our goals were to (a) address conceptual and methodological issues in studying the development of physiological stress responsivity within and between individuals, and (b) provide an exemplar for evaluating development of responsivity to stress in the parasympathetic nervous system, comparing respiratory sinus arrhythmia (RSA) responsivity from middle to late childhood with middle to late adolescence. We propose the use of latent growth modeling of stress responsivity that includes time-varying covariates to account for conceptual and methodological issues in the measurement of physiological stress responsivity. Such models allow researchers to address key aspects of developmental sensitivity including within-individual variability, mean level change over time, and between-individual variability over time. In an empirical example, we found significant between-individual variability over time in RSA responsivity to stress during middle to late childhood but not during middle to late adolescence, suggesting that childhood may be a period of greater developmental sensitivity at the between-individual level. © 2017 Society for Psychophysiological Research.

  12. A HIERARCHICAL SET OF MODELS FOR SPECIES RESPONSE ANALYSIS

    HUISMAN, J; OLFF, H; FRESCO, LFM

    Variation in the abundance of species in space and/or time can be caused by a wide range of underlying processes. Before such causes can be analysed we need simple mathematical models which can describe the observed response patterns. For this purpose a hierarchical set of models is presented. These

  13. A hierarchical set of models for species response analysis

    Huisman, J.; Olff, H.; Fresco, L.F.M.

    1993-01-01

    Variation in the abundance of species in space and/or time can be caused by a wide range of underlying processes. Before such causes can be analysed we need simple mathematical models which can describe the observed response patterns. For this purpose a hierarchical set of models is presented. These

  14. Improving OCD time to solution using Signal Response Metrology

    Fang, Fang; Zhang, Xiaoxiao; Vaid, Alok; Pandev, Stilian; Sanko, Dimitry; Ramanathan, Vidya; Venkataraman, Kartik; Haupt, Ronny

    2016-03-01

    In recent technology nodes, advanced process and novel integration scheme have challenged the precision limits of conventional metrology; with critical dimensions (CD) of device reduce to sub-nanometer region. Optical metrology has proved its capability to precisely detect intricate details on the complex structures, however, conventional RCWA-based (rigorous coupled wave analysis) scatterometry has the limitations of long time-to-results and lack of flexibility to adapt to wide process variations. Signal Response Metrology (SRM) is a new metrology technique targeted to alleviate the consumption of engineering and computation resources by eliminating geometric/dispersion modeling and spectral simulation from the workflow. This is achieved by directly correlating the spectra acquired from a set of wafers with known process variations encoded. In SPIE 2015, we presented the results of SRM application in lithography metrology and control [1], accomplished the mission of setting up a new measurement recipe of focus/dose monitoring in hours. This work will demonstrate our recent field exploration of SRM implementation in 20nm technology and beyond, including focus metrology for scanner control; post etch geometric profile measurement, and actual device profile metrology.

  15. Applications of complex terrain meteorological models to emergency response management

    Yamada, Tetsuji; Leone, J.M. Jr.; Rao, K.S.; Dickerson, M.H.; Bader, D.C.; Williams, M.D.

    1989-01-01

    The Office of Health and Environmental Research (OHER), US Department of Energy (DOE), has supported the development of mesoscale transport and diffusion and meteorological models for several decades. The model development activities are closely tied to the OHER field measurement program which has generated a large amount of meteorological and tracer gas data that have been used extensively to test and improve both meteorological and dispersion models. This paper briefly discusses the history of the model development activities associated with the OHER atmospheric science program. The discussion will then focus on how results from this program have made their way into the emergency response community in the past, and what activities are presently being pursued to improve real-time emergency response capabilities. Finally, fruitful areas of research for improving real-time emergency response modeling capabilities are suggested. 35 refs., 5 figs

  16. Dynamic Characterization and Impulse Response Modeling of Amplitude and Phase Response of Silicon Nanowires

    Cleary, Ciaran S.; Ji, Hua; Dailey, James M.

    2013-01-01

    Amplitude and phase dynamics of silicon nanowires were measured using time-resolved spectroscopy. Time shifts of the maximum phase change and minimum amplitude as a function of pump power due to saturation of the free-carrier density were observed. A phenomenological impulse response model used t...

  17. Study on time characteristics of fast time response inorganic scintillator CeF3

    Hu Mengchun; Zhou Dianzhong; Guo Cun; Ye Wenying

    2003-01-01

    The cerium fluoride (CeF 3 ) is a kind of new fast time response inorganic scintillator. The physical characteristics of CeF 3 are well suitable for detection of domestic pulse γ-rays. The time response of detector composed by phototube with CeF 3 are measured by use of the pulse radiation source with rise time about 0.8 ns, and FWHM time 1.5-2.2 ns. Experiment results show that the rise time is less than 2 ns, FWHM time is about 10 ns, fall time is about 60 ns, average decay time constant is 20-30 ns, respectively for CeF 3

  18. Timing criteria for supplemental BWR emergency response equipment

    Bickel, John H.

    2015-01-01

    The Great Tohuku Earthquake and subsequent Tsunami represented a double failure event which destroyed offsite power connections to Fukushima-Daiichi site and then destroyed on-site electrical systems needed to run decay heat removal systems. The accident could have been mitigated had there been supplemental portable battery chargers, supplemental pumps, and in-place piping connections to provide alternate decay heat removal. In response to this event in the USA, two national response centers, one in Memphis, Tennessee, and another in Phoenix, Arizona, will begin operation. They will be able to dispatch supplemental emergency response equipment to any nuclear plant in the U.S. within 24 hours. In order to define requirements for supplemental nuclear power plant emergency response equipment maintained onsite vs. in a regional support center it is necessary to confirm: (a) the earliest time such equipment might be needed depending on the specific scenario, (b) the nominal time to move the equipment from a storage location either on-site or within the region of a nuclear power plant, and (c) the time required to connect in the supplemental equipment to use it. This paper describes an evaluation process for a BWR-4 with a Mark I Containment starting with: (a) severe accident simulation to define best estimate times available for recovery based on the specific scenario, (b) identify the key supplemental response equipment needed at specific times to accomplish recovery of key safety functions, and (c) evaluate what types of equipment should be warehoused on-site vs. in regional response centers. (authors)

  19. Planck 2013 results. VII. HFI time response and beams

    Ade, P A R; Armitage-Caplan, C; Arnaud, M; Ashdown, M; Atrio-Barandela, F; Aumont, J; Baccigalupi, C; Banday, A J; Barreiro, R B; Battaner, E; Benabed, K; Benoît, A; Benoit-Lévy, A; Bernard, J -P; Bersanelli, M; Bielewicz, P; Bobin, J; Bock, J J; Bond, J R; Borrill, J; Bouchet, F R; Bowyer, J W; Bridges, M; Bucher, M; Burigana, C; Cardoso, J -F; Catalano, A; Challinor, A; Chamballu, A; Chary, R -R; Chiang, L -Y; Chiang, H C; Christensen, P R; Church, S; Clements, D L; Colombi, S; Colombo, L P L; Couchot, F; Coulais, A; Crill, B P; Curto, A; Cuttaia, F; Danese, L; Davies, R D; de Bernardis, P; de Rosa, A; de Zotti, G; Delabrouille, J; Delouis, J -M; Désert, F -X; Diego, J M; Dole, H; Donzelli, S; Doré, O; Douspis, M; Dunkley, J; Dupac, X; Efstathiou, G; Enßlin, T A; Eriksen, H K; Finelli, F; Forni, O; Frailis, M; Fraisse, A A; Franceschi, E; Galeotta, S; Ganga, K; Giard, M; Giraud-Héraud, Y; González-Nuevo, J; Górski, K M; Gratton, S; Gregorio, A; Gruppuso, A; Gudmundsson, J E; Haissinski, J; Hansen, F K; Hanson, D; Harrison, D; Henrot-Versillé, S; Hernández-Monteagudo, C; Herranz, D; Hildebrandt, S R; Hivon, E; Hobson, M; Holmes, W A; Hornstrup, A; Hou, Z; Hovest, W; Huffenberger, K M; Jaffe, T R; Jaffe, A H; Jones, W C; Juvela, M; Keihänen, E; Keskitalo, R; Kisner, T S; Kneissl, R; Knoche, J; Knox, L; Kunz, M; Kurki-Suonio, H; Lagache, G; Lamarre, J -M; Lasenby, A; Laureijs, R J; Lawrence, C R; Leonardi, R; Leroy, C; Lesgourgues, J; Liguori, M; Lilje, P B; Linden-Vørnle, M; López-Caniego, M; Lubin, P M; Macías-Pérez, J F; MacTavish, C J; Maffei, B; Mandolesi, N; Maris, M; Marshall, D J; Martin, P G; Martínez-González, E; Masi, S; Matarrese, S; Matsumura, T; Matthai, F; Mazzotta, P; McGehee, P; Melchiorri, A; Mendes, L; Mennella, A; Migliaccio, M; Mitra, S; Miville-Deschênes, M -A; Moneti, A; Montier, L; Morgante, G; Mortlock, D; Munshi, D; Murphy, J A; Naselsky, P; Nati, F; Natoli, P; Netterfield, C B; Nørgaard-Nielsen, H U; Noviello, F; Novikov, D; Novikov, I; Osborne, S; Oxborrow, C A; Paci, F; Pagano, L; Pajot, F; Paoletti, D; Pasian, F; Patanchon, G; Perdereau, O; Perotto, L; Perrotta, F; Piacentini, F; Piat, M; Pierpaoli, E; Pietrobon, D; Plaszczynski, S; Pointecouteau, E; Polegre, A M; Polenta, G; Ponthieu, N; Popa, L; Poutanen, T; Pratt, G W; Prézeau, G; Prunet, S; Puget, J -L; Rachen, J P; Reinecke, M; Remazeilles, M; Renault, C; Ricciardi, S; Riller, T; Ristorcelli, I; Rocha, G; Rosset, C; Roudier, G; Rowan-Robinson, M; Rusholme, B; Sandri, M; Santos, D; Sauvé, A; Savini, G; Shellard, E P S; Spencer, L D; Starck, J -L; Stolyarov, V; Stompor, R; Sudiwala, R; Sureau, F; Sutton, D; Suur-Uski, A -S; Sygnet, J -F; Tauber, J A; Tavagnacco, D; Terenzi, L; Tomasi, M; Tristram, M; Tucci, M; Umana, G; Valenziano, L; Valiviita, J; Van Tent, B; Vielva, P; Villa, F; Vittorio, N; Wade, L A; Wandelt, B D; Yvon, D; Zacchei, A; Zonca, A

    2014-01-01

    This paper characterizes the effective beams,the effective beam window functions and the associated errors for the Planck HFI detectors. The effective beam is the angular response including the effect of the optics,detectors,data processing and the scan strategy. The window function is the representation of this beam in the harmonic domain which is required to recover an unbiased measurement of the CMB angular power spectrum. The HFI is a scanning instrument and its effective beams are the convolution of: (a) the optical response of the telescope and feeds;(b)the processing of the time-ordered data and deconvolution of the bolometric and electronic time response; and (c) the merging of several surveys to produce maps. The time response functions are measured using observations of Jupiter and Saturn and by minimizing survey difference residuals. The scanning beam is the post-deconvolution angular response of the instrument, and is characterized with observations of Mars. The main beam solid angles are determin...

  20. Modeling the frequency response of photovoltaic inverters

    Ernauli Christine Aprilia, A.; Cuk, V.; Cobben, J.F.G.; Ribeiro, P.F.; Kling, W.L.

    2012-01-01

    The increased presence of photovoltaic (PV) systems inevitably affects the power quality in the grid. This new reality demands grid power quality studies involving PV inverters. This paper proposes several frequency response models in the form of equivalent circuits. Models are based on laboratory

  1. Corporate Social Responsibility Agreements Model for Community ...

    Corporate Social Responsibility Agreements Model for Community ... their host communities with concomitant adverse effect on mining operations. ... sustainable community development an integral part of the mining business. This paper presents the evolutionary strategic models, with differing principles and action plans, ...

  2. Transformation Algorithm of Dielectric Response in Time-Frequency Domain

    Ji Liu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available A transformation algorithm of dielectric response from time domain to frequency domain is presented. In order to shorten measuring time of low or ultralow frequency dielectric response characteristics, the transformation algorithm is used in this paper to transform the time domain relaxation current to frequency domain current for calculating the low frequency dielectric dissipation factor. In addition, it is shown from comparing the calculation results with actual test data that there is a coincidence for both results over a wide range of low frequencies. Meanwhile, the time domain test data of depolarization currents in dry and moist pressboards are converted into frequency domain results on the basis of the transformation. The frequency domain curves of complex capacitance and dielectric dissipation factor at the low frequency range are obtained. Test results of polarization and depolarization current (PDC in pressboards are also given at the different voltage and polarization time. It is demonstrated from the experimental results that polarization and depolarization current are affected significantly by moisture contents of the test pressboards, and the transformation algorithm is effective in ultralow frequency of 10−3 Hz. Data analysis and interpretation of the test results conclude that analysis of time-frequency domain dielectric response can be used for assessing insulation system in power transformer.

  3. Modeling Non-Gaussian Time Series with Nonparametric Bayesian Model.

    Xu, Zhiguang; MacEachern, Steven; Xu, Xinyi

    2015-02-01

    We present a class of Bayesian copula models whose major components are the marginal (limiting) distribution of a stationary time series and the internal dynamics of the series. We argue that these are the two features with which an analyst is typically most familiar, and hence that these are natural components with which to work. For the marginal distribution, we use a nonparametric Bayesian prior distribution along with a cdf-inverse cdf transformation to obtain large support. For the internal dynamics, we rely on the traditionally successful techniques of normal-theory time series. Coupling the two components gives us a family of (Gaussian) copula transformed autoregressive models. The models provide coherent adjustments of time scales and are compatible with many extensions, including changes in volatility of the series. We describe basic properties of the models, show their ability to recover non-Gaussian marginal distributions, and use a GARCH modification of the basic model to analyze stock index return series. The models are found to provide better fit and improved short-range and long-range predictions than Gaussian competitors. The models are extensible to a large variety of fields, including continuous time models, spatial models, models for multiple series, models driven by external covariate streams, and non-stationary models.

  4. In situ response time measurements of RTD temperature sensors

    Goncalves, I.M.P.

    1985-01-01

    The loop-current-step-response test provides a mean for determining the time constant of resistence thermometers. The test consist in heating the sensor a few degrees above ambient temperature by causing a step pertubation in the electric current that flows through the sensor leads. The developed mathematical transformation permits to use data collected during the internal heating transient to predict the sensor response to perturbations in fluid temperature. Experimental data obtained show that the time constant determined by method is within 15 percent of true value. The loop-current-step-response test is a remote in situ test, which can be performed with the sensor installed in the process. Consequently it takes account the local heat transfer conditions, and appropriated for nuclear power plants, where sensors are installed in points of difficult access. (author) [pt

  5. Improvement in MFTF data base system response times

    Lang, N.C.; Nelson, B.C.

    1983-01-01

    The Supervisory Control and Diagnostic System for the Mirror Fusion Test Facility (MFTF) has been designed as an event driven system. To this end we have designed a data base notification facility in which a task can request that it be loaded and started whenever an element in the data base is changed beyond some user defined range. Our initial implementation of the notify facility exhibited marginal response times whenever a data base table with a large number of outstanding notifies was written into. In this paper we discuss the sources of the slow response and describe in detail a new structure for the list of notifies which minimizes search time resulting in significantly faster response

  6. Fast response time alcohol gas sensor using nanocrystalline F

    Home; Journals; Bulletin of Materials Science; Volume 36; Issue 4. Fast response time alcohol gas sensor using nanocrystalline F-doped SnO2 films derived via sol–gel method. Sarbani Basu Yeong-Her Wang C Ghanshyam Pawan Kapur. Volume 36 Issue 4 August 2013 pp 521-533 ...

  7. 48 CFR 5.203 - Publicizing and response time.

    2010-10-01

    ... development if the proposed contract action is expected to exceed the simplified acquisition threshold. (f) Nothing in this subpart prohibits officers or employees of agencies from responding to requests for... response times specified in paragraphs (a) through (d) of this section. Upon learning that a particular...

  8. Response Times of Operators in a Control Room

    Platz, O.; Rasmussen, Jens; Skanborg, Preben Zacho

    A statistical analysis was made of operator response times recorded in the control room of a research reactor during the years 1972-1974. A homogeneity test revealed that the data consist of a mixture of populations. A small but statistically significant difference is found between day and night...

  9. Distinct Response Time Distributions in Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder Subtypes

    Querne, Laurent; Berquin, Patrick

    2009-01-01

    Objective: To address the issue of response time (RT) profiles in hyperactive-impulsive (ADHD-HI), inattentive (ADHD-IA), and combined (ADHD-C) subtypes of ADHD. We hypothesized that children with ADHD-HI should respond more rapidly than children without ADHD and children with ADHD-IA and ADHD-C should respond more slowly than children without…

  10. Stroop interference and the timing of selective response activation.

    Lansbergen, M.M.; Kenemans, J.L.

    2008-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To examine the exact timing of selective response activation in a manual color-word Stroop task. METHODS: Healthy individuals performed two versions of a manual color-word Stroop task, varying in the probability of incongruent color-words, while EEG was recorded. RESULTS: Stroop

  11. Transducer frequency response variations investigated by time reversal calibration

    Kober, Jan; Převorovský, Zdeněk

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 26, č. 2 (2016), A16-A16 ISSN 1213-3825. [Europen Conference on Acoustic Emission Testing /32./. 07.09.2016-09.09.2016, Praha] Institutional support: RVO:61388998 Keywords : calibration * time reversal * transducer * frequency response Subject RIV: BI - Acoustics

  12. The Effect of Police Response Time on Crime Clearance Rates

    Blanes i Vidal, Jordi; Kirchmaier, Tom

    2018-01-01

    significant effects: in our preferred estimate, a 10% increase in response time leads to a 4.7 percentage points decrease in the likelihood of clearing the crime. We find stronger effects for thefts than for violent offenses, although the effects are large for every type of crime. We find suggestive evidence...

  13. Experimental data and dose-response models

    Ullrich, R.L.

    1985-01-01

    Dose-response relationships for radiation carcinogenesis have been of interest to biologists, modelers, and statisticians for many years. Despite his interest there are few instances in which there are sufficient experimental data to allow the fitting of various dose-response models. In those experimental systems for which data are available the dose-response curves for tumor induction for the various systems cannot be described by a single model. Dose-response models which have been observed following acute exposures to gamma rays include threshold, quadratic, and linear models. Data on sex, age, and environmental influences of dose suggest a strong role of host factors on the dose response. With decreasing dose rate the effectiveness of gamma ray irradiation tends to decrease in essentially every instance. In those cases in which the high dose rate dose response could be described by a quadratic model, the effect of dose rate is consistent with predictions based on radiation effects on the induction of initial events. Whether the underlying reasons for the observed dose-rate effect is a result of effects on the induction of initial events or is due to effects on the subsequent steps in the carcinogenic process is unknown. Information on the dose response for tumor induction for high LET (linear energy transfer) radiations such as neutrons is even more limited. The observed dose and dose rate data for tumor induction following neutron exposure are complex and do not appear to be consistent with predictions based on models for the induction of initial events

  14. Using random response input in Ibrahim Time Domain

    Olsen, Peter; Brincker, R.

    2013-01-01

    In this paper the time domain technique Ibrahim Time Domain (ITD) is used to analyze random time data. ITD is known to be a technique for identification of output only systems. The traditional formulation of ITD is claimed to be limited, when identifying closely spaced modes, because....... In this article it is showed that when using the modified ITD random time data can be analyzed. The application of the technique is displayed by a case study, with simulations and experimental data....... of the technique being Single Input Multiple Output (SIMO). It has earlier been showed that when modifying ITD with Toeplitz matrix averaging. Identification of time data with closely spaced modes is improved. In the traditional formulation of ITD the time data has to be free decays or impulse response functions...

  15. From discrete-time models to continuous-time, asynchronous modeling of financial markets

    Boer, Katalin; Kaymak, Uzay; Spiering, Jaap

    2007-01-01

    Most agent-based simulation models of financial markets are discrete-time in nature. In this paper, we investigate to what degree such models are extensible to continuous-time, asynchronous modeling of financial markets. We study the behavior of a learning market maker in a market with information

  16. From Discrete-Time Models to Continuous-Time, Asynchronous Models of Financial Markets

    K. Boer-Sorban (Katalin); U. Kaymak (Uzay); J. Spiering (Jaap)

    2006-01-01

    textabstractMost agent-based simulation models of financial markets are discrete-time in nature. In this paper, we investigate to what degree such models are extensible to continuous-time, asynchronous modelling of financial markets. We study the behaviour of a learning market maker in a market with

  17. Time response for sensor sensed to actuator response for mobile robotic system

    Amir, N. S.; Shafie, A. A.

    2017-11-01

    Time and performance of a mobile robot are very important in completing the tasks given to achieve its ultimate goal. Tasks may need to be done within a time constraint to ensure smooth operation of a mobile robot and can result in better performance. The main purpose of this research was to improve the performance of a mobile robot so that it can complete the tasks given within time constraint. The problem that is needed to be solved is to minimize the time interval between sensor detection and actuator response. The research objective is to analyse the real time operating system performance of sensors and actuators on one microcontroller and on two microcontroller for a mobile robot. The task for a mobile robot for this research is line following with an obstacle avoidance. Three runs will be carried out for the task and the time between the sensors senses to the actuator responses were recorded. Overall, the results show that two microcontroller system have better response time compared to the one microcontroller system. For this research, the average difference of response time is very important to improve the internal performance between the occurrence of a task, sensors detection, decision making and actuator response of a mobile robot. This research helped to develop a mobile robot with a better performance and can complete task within the time constraint.

  18. Time history nonlinear earthquake response analysis considering materials and geometrical nonlinearity

    Kobayashi, T.; Yoshikawa, K.; Takaoka, E.; Nakazawa, M.; Shikama, Y.

    2002-01-01

    A time history nonlinear earthquake response analysis method was proposed and applied to earthquake response prediction analysis for a Large Scale Seismic Test (LSST) Program in Hualien, Taiwan, in which a 1/4 scale model of a nuclear reactor containment structure was constructed on sandy gravel layer. In the analysis both of strain-dependent material nonlinearity, and geometrical nonlinearity by base mat uplift, were considered. The 'Lattice Model' for the soil-structure interaction model was employed. An earthquake record on soil surface at the site was used as control motion, and deconvoluted to the input motion of the analysis model at GL-52 m with 300 Gal of maximum acceleration. The following two analyses were considered: (A) time history nonlinear, (B) equivalent linear, and the advantage of time history nonlinear earthquake response analysis method is discussed

  19. Model-generated air quality statistics for application in vegetation response models in Alberta

    McVehil, G.E.; Nosal, M.

    1990-01-01

    To test and apply vegetation response models in Alberta, air pollution statistics representative of various parts of the Province are required. At this time, air quality monitoring data of the requisite accuracy and time resolution are not available for most parts of Alberta. Therefore, there exists a need to develop appropriate air quality statistics. The objectives of the work reported here were to determine the applicability of model generated air quality statistics and to develop by modelling, realistic and representative time series of hourly SO 2 concentrations that could be used to generate the statistics demanded by vegetation response models

  20. Modeling of the time sharing for lecturers

    E. Yu. Shakhova

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In the context of modernization of the Russian system of higher education, it is necessary to analyze the working time of the university lecturers, taking into account both basic job functions as the university lecturer, and others.The mathematical problem is presented for the optimal working time planning for the university lecturers. The review of the documents, native and foreign works on the study is made. Simulation conditions, based on analysis of the subject area, are defined. Models of optimal working time sharing of the university lecturers («the second half of the day» are developed and implemented in the system MathCAD. Optimal solutions have been obtained.Three problems have been solved:1 to find the optimal time sharing for «the second half of the day» in a certain position of the university lecturer;2 to find the optimal time sharing for «the second half of the day» for all positions of the university lecturers in view of the established model of the academic load differentiation;3 to find the volume value of the non-standardized part of time work in the department for the academic year, taking into account: the established model of an academic load differentiation, distribution of the Faculty number for the positions and the optimal time sharing «the second half of the day» for the university lecturers of the department.Examples are given of the analysis results. The practical application of the research: the developed models can be used when planning the working time of an individual professor in the preparation of the work plan of the university department for the academic year, as well as to conduct a comprehensive analysis of the administrative decisions in the development of local university regulations.

  1. Comparison of LMFBR piping response obtained using response spectrum and time history methods

    Hulbert, G.M.

    1981-04-01

    The dynamic response to a seismic event is calculated for a piping system using a response spectrum analysis method and two time history analysis methods. The results from the analytical methods are compared to identify causes for the differences between the sets of analytical results. Comparative methods are also presented which help to gain confidence in the accuracy of the analytical methods in predicting piping system structure response during seismic events

  2. Impact of insufficient energy content in the design time history on the structure response

    Ma, D.C.; Gvildys, J.; Chang, Y.W.; Seidensticker, R.W.

    1989-01-01

    In the design of nuclear power plants, it is often desirable to use the time history method in the soil-structure interaction analysis to determine the plant floor response to seismic loads. Because many design criteria are specified in terms of design response spectra, the artificial time history needs to be generated under the requirement that the response spectra of the artificial history should envelop the given design response spectra. However, recent studies indicate that the artificial time history used in the plant design may have insufficient energy in the frequency range of interest, even though the response spectra of the design time history closely envelop the design response spectra. This paper presents an investigation of the effects of the insufficient energy content in the design time history on the response of the soil-structure system. Numerical studies were carried out. Both the real earthquake records and the artificial time histories were used as the input motions in a simple lumped-mass soil-structure interaction model. The results obtained from this study provide a better understanding of the effects of the insufficient energy content in the design time history on the structural response

  3. Time-Lapse and Slow-Motion Tracking of Temperature Changes: Response Time of a Thermometer

    Moggio, L.; Onorato, P.; Gratton, L. M.; Oss, S.

    2017-01-01

    We propose the use of a smartphone based time-lapse and slow-motion video techniques together with tracking analysis as valuable tools for investigating thermal processes such as the response time of a thermometer. The two simple experimental activities presented here, suitable also for high school and undergraduate students, allow one to measure…

  4. Contracts for Cross-organizational Workflows as Timed Dynamic Condition Response Graphs

    Hildebrandt, Thomas; Mukkamala, Raghava Rao; Slaats, Tijs

    2013-01-01

    We conservatively extend the declarative Dynamic Condition Response (DCR) Graph process model, introduced in the PhD thesis of the second author, to allow for discrete time deadlines. We prove that safety and liveness properties can be verified by mapping finite timed DCR Graphs to finite state...

  5. Performance on a simple response time task: Is sleep or work more important for miners?

    Ferguson, Sally A; Paech, Gemma M; Dorrian, Jillian; Roach, Gregory D; Jay, Sarah M

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of the current study was to investigate the impact of work- and sleep-related factors on an objective measure of response time in a field setting. Thirty-five mining operators working 12-h shift patterns completed daily sleep and work diaries, wore activity monitors continuously and completed palm-based psychomotor vigilance tests (palmPVT) at the start and end of each shift. Linear mixed models were used to test the main effects on response time of roster, timing of test, sleep history and prior wake. The time at which the test occurred was a significant predictor of response time (F₃(,)₄₀₃(.)₄ = 6.72, p times than the start of night shifts, and the start or end of day shifts. Further, the amount of sleep obtained in the 24h prior to the test was also a significant predictor of response time (F₃(,)₄₀₇(.)₀ = 3.05, p time indicative of performance impairments. Of more interest however is that immediate sleep history was also predictive of changes in response time with lower amounts of prior sleep related to slower response times. The current data provides further evidence that sleep is a primary mediator of performance, independent of roster pattern. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.

  6. Estimating High-Dimensional Time Series Models

    Medeiros, Marcelo C.; Mendes, Eduardo F.

    We study the asymptotic properties of the Adaptive LASSO (adaLASSO) in sparse, high-dimensional, linear time-series models. We assume both the number of covariates in the model and candidate variables can increase with the number of observations and the number of candidate variables is, possibly......, larger than the number of observations. We show the adaLASSO consistently chooses the relevant variables as the number of observations increases (model selection consistency), and has the oracle property, even when the errors are non-Gaussian and conditionally heteroskedastic. A simulation study shows...

  7. Real-time modeling of heat distributions

    Hamann, Hendrik F.; Li, Hongfei; Yarlanki, Srinivas

    2018-01-02

    Techniques for real-time modeling temperature distributions based on streaming sensor data are provided. In one aspect, a method for creating a three-dimensional temperature distribution model for a room having a floor and a ceiling is provided. The method includes the following steps. A ceiling temperature distribution in the room is determined. A floor temperature distribution in the room is determined. An interpolation between the ceiling temperature distribution and the floor temperature distribution is used to obtain the three-dimensional temperature distribution model for the room.

  8. Multiscale modeling of mucosal immune responses

    2015-01-01

    Computational modeling techniques are playing increasingly important roles in advancing a systems-level mechanistic understanding of biological processes. Computer simulations guide and underpin experimental and clinical efforts. This study presents ENteric Immune Simulator (ENISI), a multiscale modeling tool for modeling the mucosal immune responses. ENISI's modeling environment can simulate in silico experiments from molecular signaling pathways to tissue level events such as tissue lesion formation. ENISI's architecture integrates multiple modeling technologies including ABM (agent-based modeling), ODE (ordinary differential equations), SDE (stochastic modeling equations), and PDE (partial differential equations). This paper focuses on the implementation and developmental challenges of ENISI. A multiscale model of mucosal immune responses during colonic inflammation, including CD4+ T cell differentiation and tissue level cell-cell interactions was developed to illustrate the capabilities, power and scope of ENISI MSM. Background Computational techniques are becoming increasingly powerful and modeling tools for biological systems are of greater needs. Biological systems are inherently multiscale, from molecules to tissues and from nano-seconds to a lifespan of several years or decades. ENISI MSM integrates multiple modeling technologies to understand immunological processes from signaling pathways within cells to lesion formation at the tissue level. This paper examines and summarizes the technical details of ENISI, from its initial version to its latest cutting-edge implementation. Implementation Object-oriented programming approach is adopted to develop a suite of tools based on ENISI. Multiple modeling technologies are integrated to visualize tissues, cells as well as proteins; furthermore, performance matching between the scales is addressed. Conclusion We used ENISI MSM for developing predictive multiscale models of the mucosal immune system during gut

  9. Multiscale modeling of mucosal immune responses.

    Mei, Yongguo; Abedi, Vida; Carbo, Adria; Zhang, Xiaoying; Lu, Pinyi; Philipson, Casandra; Hontecillas, Raquel; Hoops, Stefan; Liles, Nathan; Bassaganya-Riera, Josep

    2015-01-01

    Computational techniques are becoming increasingly powerful and modeling tools for biological systems are of greater needs. Biological systems are inherently multiscale, from molecules to tissues and from nano-seconds to a lifespan of several years or decades. ENISI MSM integrates multiple modeling technologies to understand immunological processes from signaling pathways within cells to lesion formation at the tissue level. This paper examines and summarizes the technical details of ENISI, from its initial version to its latest cutting-edge implementation. Object-oriented programming approach is adopted to develop a suite of tools based on ENISI. Multiple modeling technologies are integrated to visualize tissues, cells as well as proteins; furthermore, performance matching between the scales is addressed. We used ENISI MSM for developing predictive multiscale models of the mucosal immune system during gut inflammation. Our modeling predictions dissect the mechanisms by which effector CD4+ T cell responses contribute to tissue damage in the gut mucosa following immune dysregulation.Computational modeling techniques are playing increasingly important roles in advancing a systems-level mechanistic understanding of biological processes. Computer simulations guide and underpin experimental and clinical efforts. This study presents ENteric Immune Simulator (ENISI), a multiscale modeling tool for modeling the mucosal immune responses. ENISI's modeling environment can simulate in silico experiments from molecular signaling pathways to tissue level events such as tissue lesion formation. ENISI's architecture integrates multiple modeling technologies including ABM (agent-based modeling), ODE (ordinary differential equations), SDE (stochastic modeling equations), and PDE (partial differential equations). This paper focuses on the implementation and developmental challenges of ENISI. A multiscale model of mucosal immune responses during colonic inflammation, including CD4+ T

  10. Residential response to voluntary time-of-use electricity rates

    Mostafa Baladi, S. [Laurits R. Christensen Associates, Inc. Ames, IA 50011-1070 (United States); Herriges, Joseph A. [Iowa State University, 280D Heady Hall, Department of Economics, Iowa State University, Ames, IA 50011-1070 (United States); Sweeney, Thomas J. [MidAmerican Energy, Des Moines, Iowa (United States)

    1998-09-01

    The response of residential households to voluntary Time-of-Use (TOU) electricity rates is estimated using data from a recent experiment at Midwest Power Systems of Iowa. The study`s design allows us to examine both the participation decision and the customer`s load pattern changes once the TOU rate structure was in effect. Substitution elasticities between on-peak and off-peak electricity usage are estimated and compared to those obtained in earlier mandatory programs, indicating whether program volunteers are more responsive to TOU pricing than the typical household. Attitudinal questionnaires allow us to examine the role of usage perceptions in program participation

  11. Filter frequency response of time dependent signal using Laplace transform

    Shestakov, Aleksei I. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2018-01-16

    We analyze the effect a filter has on a time dependent signal x(t). If X(s) is the Laplace transform of x and H (s) is the filter Transfer function, the response in frequency space is X (s) H (s). Consequently, in real space, the response is the convolution (x*h) (t), where hi is the Laplace inverse of H. Effects are analyzed and analytically for functions such as (t/tc)2 e-t/t$_c$, where tc = const. We consider lowpass, highpass and bandpass filters.

  12. On modeling panels of time series

    Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans)

    2002-01-01

    textabstractThis paper reviews research issues in modeling panels of time series. Examples of this type of data are annually observed macroeconomic indicators for all countries in the world, daily returns on the individual stocks listed in the S&P500, and the sales records of all items in a

  13. Time Series Modelling using Proc Varmax

    Milhøj, Anders

    2007-01-01

    In this paper it will be demonstrated how various time series problems could be met using Proc Varmax. The procedure is rather new and hence new features like cointegration, testing for Granger causality are included, but it also means that more traditional ARIMA modelling as outlined by Box...

  14. Theory of Time beyond the standard model

    Poliakov, Eugene S.

    2008-01-01

    A frame of non-uniform time is discussed. A concept of 'flow of time' is presented. The principle of time relativity in analogy with Galilean principle of relativity is set. Equivalence principle is set to state that the outcome of non-uniform time in an inertial frame of reference is equivalent to the outcome of a fictitious gravity force external to the frame of reference. Thus it is flow of time that causes gravity rather than mass. The latter is compared to experimental data achieving precision of up to 0.0003%. It is shown that the law of energy conservation is inapplicable to the frames of non-uniform time. A theoretical model of a physical entity (point mass, photon) travelling in the field of non-uniform time is considered. A generalized law that allows the flow of time to replace classical energy conservation is introduced on the basis of the experiment of Pound and Rebka. It is shown that linear dependence of flow of time on spatial coordinate conforms the inverse square law of universal gravitation and Keplerian mechanics. Momentum is shown to still be conserved

  15. Single toxin dose-response models revisited

    Demidenko, Eugene, E-mail: eugened@dartmouth.edu [Department of Biomedical Data Science, Geisel School of Medicine at Dartmouth, Hanover, NH03756 (United States); Glaholt, SP, E-mail: sglaholt@indiana.edu [Indiana University, School of Public & Environmental Affairs, Bloomington, IN47405 (United States); Department of Biological Sciences, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH03755 (United States); Kyker-Snowman, E, E-mail: ek2002@wildcats.unh.edu [Department of Natural Resources and the Environment, University of New Hampshire, Durham, NH03824 (United States); Shaw, JR, E-mail: joeshaw@indiana.edu [Indiana University, School of Public & Environmental Affairs, Bloomington, IN47405 (United States); Chen, CY, E-mail: Celia.Y.Chen@dartmouth.edu [Department of Biological Sciences, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH03755 (United States)

    2017-01-01

    The goal of this paper is to offer a rigorous analysis of the sigmoid shape single toxin dose-response relationship. The toxin efficacy function is introduced and four special points, including maximum toxin efficacy and inflection points, on the dose-response curve are defined. The special points define three phases of the toxin effect on mortality: (1) toxin concentrations smaller than the first inflection point or (2) larger then the second inflection point imply low mortality rate, and (3) concentrations between the first and the second inflection points imply high mortality rate. Probabilistic interpretation and mathematical analysis for each of the four models, Hill, logit, probit, and Weibull is provided. Two general model extensions are introduced: (1) the multi-target hit model that accounts for the existence of several vital receptors affected by the toxin, and (2) model with a nonzero mortality at zero concentration to account for natural mortality. Special attention is given to statistical estimation in the framework of the generalized linear model with the binomial dependent variable as the mortality count in each experiment, contrary to the widespread nonlinear regression treating the mortality rate as continuous variable. The models are illustrated using standard EPA Daphnia acute (48 h) toxicity tests with mortality as a function of NiCl or CuSO{sub 4} toxin. - Highlights: • The paper offers a rigorous study of a sigmoid dose-response relationship. • The concentration with highest mortality rate is rigorously defined. • A table with four special points for five morality curves is presented. • Two new sigmoid dose-response models have been introduced. • The generalized linear model is advocated for estimation of sigmoid dose-response relationship.

  16. Physical models on discrete space and time

    Lorente, M.

    1986-01-01

    The idea of space and time quantum operators with a discrete spectrum has been proposed frequently since the discovery that some physical quantities exhibit measured values that are multiples of fundamental units. This paper first reviews a number of these physical models. They are: the method of finite elements proposed by Bender et al; the quantum field theory model on discrete space-time proposed by Yamamoto; the finite dimensional quantum mechanics approach proposed by Santhanam et al; the idea of space-time as lattices of n-simplices proposed by Kaplunovsky et al; and the theory of elementary processes proposed by Weizsaecker and his colleagues. The paper then presents a model proposed by the authors and based on the (n+1)-dimensional space-time lattice where fundamental entities interact among themselves 1 to 2n in order to build up a n-dimensional cubic lattice as a ground field where the physical interactions take place. The space-time coordinates are nothing more than the labelling of the ground field and take only discrete values. 11 references

  17. Autonomous journaling response using data model LUTS

    Jaenisch, Holger; Handley, James; Albritton, Nathaniel; Whitener, David; Burnett, Randel; Caspers, Robert; Moren, Stephen; Alexander, Thomas; Maddox, William, III; Albritton, William, Jr.

    2009-04-01

    Matching journal entries to appropriate context responses can be a daunting problem, especially when there are no salient keyword matches between the entry and the proposed library of appropriate responses. We examine a real-world application for matching interactive journaling requests for guidance to an a priori established archive of sufficient multimedia responses. We show the analysis required to enable a Data Model based algorithm to group journaling entries according to intrinsic context information and type. We demonstrate a new lookup table (LUT) classifier that exploits all available data in LUT form.

  18. Study on deterministic response time design for a class of nuclear Instrumentation and Control systems

    Chen, Chang-Kuo; Hou, Yi-You; Luo, Cheng-Long

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► An efficient design procedure for deterministic response time design of nuclear I and C system. ► We model the concurrent operations based on sequence diagrams and Petri nets. ► The model can achieve the deterministic behavior by using symbolic time representation. ► An illustrative example of the bistable processor logic is given. - Abstract: This study is concerned with a deterministic response time design for computer-based systems in the nuclear industry. In current approach, Petri nets are used to model the requirement of a system specified with sequence diagrams. Also, the linear logic is proposed to characterize the state of changes in the Petri net model accurately by using symbolic time representation for the purpose of acquiring deterministic behavior. An illustrative example of the bistable processor logic is provided to demonstrate the practicability of the proposed approach.

  19. Numerical models and their role in emergency response: a perspective on dispersion modeling for emergency preparedness

    Greenly, G.D.; Dickerson, M.H.

    1983-03-01

    Numerical models on several levels of complexity should be available to the emergency response planner. They are a basic tool but must be used in conjunction with both measurements and experience. When these tools are used in a complimentary fashion they greatly enhance the capability of the consequence manager to respond in an emergency situation. Because each accident or incident develops it's own characteristics and requirements the system must be capable of a flexible response. Interaction and feedback between model results from a suite of models and measurements (including airborne measurements) serve the emergency response planner's spectrum of needs, ranging from planning exercises and emergency precalculations to a real-time emergency response

  20. Consumer responses to time varying prices for electricity

    Thorsnes, Paul; Williams, John; Lawson, Rob

    2012-01-01

    We report new experimental evidence of the household response to weekday differentials in peak and off-peak electricity prices. The data come from Auckland, New Zealand, where peak residential electricity consumption occurs in winter for heating. Peak/off-peak price differentials ranged over four randomly selected groups from 1.0 to 3.5. On average, there was no response except in winter. In winter, participant households reduced electricity consumption by at least 10%, took advantage of lower off-peak prices but did not respond to the peak price differentials. Response varied with house and household size, time spent away from home, and whether water was heated with electricity. - Highlights: ► Seasonal effects in winter. ► High conservation effect from information. ► Higher peak prices no effect on peak use. ► Low off-peak prices encourage less conservation off-peak.

  1. An efficient energy response model for liquid scintillator detectors

    Lebanowski, Logan; Wan, Linyan; Ji, Xiangpan; Wang, Zhe; Chen, Shaomin

    2018-05-01

    Liquid scintillator detectors are playing an increasingly important role in low-energy neutrino experiments. In this article, we describe a generic energy response model of liquid scintillator detectors that provides energy estimations of sub-percent accuracy. This model fits a minimal set of physically-motivated parameters that capture the essential characteristics of scintillator response and that can naturally account for changes in scintillator over time, helping to avoid associated biases or systematic uncertainties. The model employs a one-step calculation and look-up tables, yielding an immediate estimation of energy and an efficient framework for quantifying systematic uncertainties and correlations.

  2. Corrective response times in a coordinated eye-head-arm countermanding task.

    Tao, Gordon; Khan, Aarlenne Z; Blohm, Gunnar

    2018-06-01

    Inhibition of motor responses has been described as a race between two competing decision processes of motor initiation and inhibition, which manifest as the reaction time (RT) and the stop signal reaction time (SSRT); in the case where motor initiation wins out over inhibition, an erroneous movement occurs that usually needs to be corrected, leading to corrective response times (CRTs). Here we used a combined eye-head-arm movement countermanding task to investigate the mechanisms governing multiple effector coordination and the timing of corrective responses. We found a high degree of correlation between effector response times for RT, SSRT, and CRT, suggesting that decision processes are strongly dependent across effectors. To gain further insight into the mechanisms underlying CRTs, we tested multiple models to describe the distribution of RTs, SSRTs, and CRTs. The best-ranked model (according to 3 information criteria) extends the LATER race model governing RTs and SSRTs, whereby a second motor initiation process triggers the corrective response (CRT) only after the inhibition process completes in an expedited fashion. Our model suggests that the neural processing underpinning a failed decision has a residual effect on subsequent actions. NEW & NOTEWORTHY Failure to inhibit erroneous movements typically results in corrective movements. For coordinated eye-head-hand movements we show that corrective movements are only initiated after the erroneous movement cancellation signal has reached a decision threshold in an accelerated fashion.

  3. Optimal time interval for induction of immunologic adaptive response

    Ju Guizhi; Song Chunhua; Liu Shuzheng

    1994-01-01

    The optimal time interval between prior dose (D1) and challenge dose (D2) for the induction of immunologic adaptive response was investigated. Kunming mice were exposed to 75 mGy X-rays at a dose rate of 12.5 mGy/min. 3, 6, 12, 24 or 60 h after the prior irradiation the mice were challenged with a dose of 1.5 Gy at a dose rate of 0.33 Gy/min. 18h after D2, the mice were sacrificed for examination of immunological parameters. The results showed that with an interval of 6 h between D1 and D2, the adaptive response of the reaction of splenocytes to LPS was induced, and with an interval of 12 h the adaptive responses of spontaneous incorporation of 3 H-TdR into thymocytes and the reaction of splenocytes to Con A and LPS were induced with 75 mGy prior irradiation. The data suggested that the optimal time intervals between D1 and D2 for the induction of immunologic adaptive response were 6 h and 12 h with a D1 of 75 mGy and a D2 of 1.5 Gy. The mechanism of immunologic adaptation following low dose radiation is discussed

  4. Optimal time points sampling in pathway modelling.

    Hu, Shiyan

    2004-01-01

    Modelling cellular dynamics based on experimental data is at the heart of system biology. Considerable progress has been made to dynamic pathway modelling as well as the related parameter estimation. However, few of them gives consideration for the issue of optimal sampling time selection for parameter estimation. Time course experiments in molecular biology rarely produce large and accurate data sets and the experiments involved are usually time consuming and expensive. Therefore, to approximate parameters for models with only few available sampling data is of significant practical value. For signal transduction, the sampling intervals are usually not evenly distributed and are based on heuristics. In the paper, we investigate an approach to guide the process of selecting time points in an optimal way to minimize the variance of parameter estimates. In the method, we first formulate the problem to a nonlinear constrained optimization problem by maximum likelihood estimation. We then modify and apply a quantum-inspired evolutionary algorithm, which combines the advantages of both quantum computing and evolutionary computing, to solve the optimization problem. The new algorithm does not suffer from the morass of selecting good initial values and being stuck into local optimum as usually accompanied with the conventional numerical optimization techniques. The simulation results indicate the soundness of the new method.

  5. Real-time information support for managing plant emergency responses

    Cain, D.G.; Lord, R.J.; Wilkinson, C.D.

    1983-01-01

    The Three Mile Island Unit 2 accident highlighted the need to develop a systematic approach to managing plant emergency responses, to identify a better decision-making process, and to implement real-time information support for decision-making. The overall process management function is described and general information requirements for management of plant emergencies are identified. Basic information systems are being incorporated and future extensions and problem areas are discussed. (U.K.)

  6. Collecting response times using Amazon Mechanical Turk and Adobe Flash.

    Simcox, Travis; Fiez, Julie A

    2014-03-01

    Crowdsourcing systems like Amazon's Mechanical Turk (AMT) allow data to be collected from a large sample of people in a short amount of time. This use has garnered considerable interest from behavioral scientists. So far, most experiments conducted on AMT have focused on survey-type instruments because of difficulties inherent in running many experimental paradigms over the Internet. This study investigated the viability of presenting stimuli and collecting response times using Adobe Flash to run ActionScript 3 code in conjunction with AMT. First, the timing properties of Adobe Flash were investigated using a phototransistor and two desktop computers running under several conditions mimicking those that may be present in research using AMT. This experiment revealed some strengths and weaknesses of the timing capabilities of this method. Next, a flanker task and a lexical decision task implemented in Adobe Flash were administered to participants recruited with AMT. The expected effects in these tasks were replicated. Power analyses were conducted to describe the number of participants needed to replicate these effects. A questionnaire was used to investigate previously undescribed computer use habits of 100 participants on AMT. We conclude that a Flash program in conjunction with AMT can be successfully used for running many experimental paradigms that rely on response times, although experimenters must understand the limitations of the method.

  7. Impact of insufficient energy content in the design time history on the structure response

    Ma, D.C.; Gvildys, J.; Chang, Y.W.; Seidensticker, R.W.

    1989-01-01

    In the design of nuclear power plants, it is often desirable to use the time history method in the soil-structure interaction analysis to determine the plant floor response to seismic loads. Because many design criteria are specified in terms of design response spectra, the artificial time history needs to be generated under the requirement that the response spectra of the artificial history should envelop the given design response spectra. However, recent studies indicate that the artificial time history used in the plant design may have insufficient energy in the frequency range of interest, even though the response spectra of the design time history closely envelop the design response spectra. Therefore, the proposed changes in the NRC Standard Review Plan requires that when a single time history is used in the seismic design, it must satisfy requirements for both response spectra enveloping and matching a power spectra density (PSD) function in the frequency range of interest. The use of multiple artificial time histories (at least five time histories) in the plant design is also suggested in the new Standard Review Plan. This paper presents an investigation of the effects of the insufficient energy content in the design time history on the response of the soil-structure system. Numerical studies were carried out. Both the real earthquake records and the artificial time histories were used as the input motions in a simple lumped-mass soil-structure interaction model. The results obtained from this study provide a better understanding of the effects of the insufficient energy content in the design time history on the structural response. 5 refs., 10 figs., 1 tab

  8. Femtosecond response time measurements of a Cs2Te photocathode

    Aryshev, A.; Shevelev, M.; Honda, Y.; Terunuma, N.; Urakawa, J.

    2017-07-01

    Success in design and construction of a compact, high-brightness accelerator system is strongly related to the production of ultra-short electron beams. Recently, the approach to generate short electron bunches or pre-bunched beams in RF guns directly illuminating a high quantum efficiency semiconductor photocathode with femtosecond laser pulses has become attractive. The measurements of the photocathode response time in this case are essential. With an approach of the interferometer-type pulse splitter deep integration into a commercial Ti:Sa laser system used for RF guns, it has become possible to generate pre-bunched electron beams and obtain continuously variable electron bunch separation. In combination with a well-known zero-phasing technique, it allows us to estimate the response time of the most commonly used Cs2Te photocathode. It was demonstrated that the peak-to-peak rms time response of Cs2Te is of the order of 370 fs, and thereby, it is possible to generate and control a THz sequence of relativistic electron bunches by a conventional S-band RF gun. This result can also be applied for investigation of other cathode materials and electron beam temporal shaping and further opens a possibility to construct wide-range tunable, table-top THz free electron laser.

  9. Immune Response to Electromagnetic Fields through Cybernetic Modeling

    Godina-Nava, J. J.; Segura, M. A. Rodriguez; Cadena, S. Reyes; Sierra, L. C. Gaitan

    2008-01-01

    We study the optimality of the humoral immune response through a mathematical model, which involves the effect of electromagnetic fields over the large lymphocytes proliferation. Are used the so called cybernetic variables in the context of the matching law of microeconomics or mathematical psychology, to measure the large lymphocytes population and to maximize the instantaneous antibody production rate in time during the immunologic response in order to most efficiently inactivate the antigen

  10. Immune Response to Electromagnetic Fields through Cybernetic Modeling

    Godina-Nava, J. J.; Segura, M. A. Rodríguez; Cadena, S. Reyes; Sierra, L. C. Gaitán

    2008-08-01

    We study the optimality of the humoral immune response through a mathematical model, which involves the effect of electromagnetic fields over the large lymphocytes proliferation. Are used the so called cybernetic variables in the context of the matching law of microeconomics or mathematical psychology, to measure the large lymphocytes population and to maximize the instantaneous antibody production rate in time during the immunologic response in order to most efficiently inactivate the antigen.

  11. Diagnostics for Linear Models With Functional Responses

    Xu, Hongquan; Shen, Qing

    2005-01-01

    Linear models where the response is a function and the predictors are vectors are useful in analyzing data from designed experiments and other situations with functional observations. Residual analysis and diagnostics are considered for such models. Studentized residuals are defined and their properties are studied. Chi-square quantile-quantile plots are proposed to check the assumption of Gaussian error process and outliers. Jackknife residuals and an associated test are proposed to det...

  12. Modeling of an eddy-current ferrite-cored probe response in time harmonic regime; Modelisation de la reponse d'un capteur a courants de Foucault comportant un noyau ferromagnetique en regime harmonique

    Buvat, F

    2005-07-01

    In aeronautics, non destructive evaluation by eddy-current is commonly used to detect corrosion area or cracks in structures. Eddy-current testing by using ferrite-cored probes is effective to detect these kind of defects. So, having a model able to predict these probes responses is a major endeavor. Our work consisted in developing a model determining the ferrite-cored probes response to a defect. To model fields inside both the core and the defect, an integral formulation has been used resulting from the application of the Green theorem onto the equations of propagation. Simulation results have been compared to synthetic data obtained by a finite-element method and they have been validated by comparison with measured impedance data. However as this model may be computationally costly, the use of the so-called non-linear approximation has been tested to tackle the case of long defects. The model has been integrated inside the CIVA platform developed by the CEA. (author)

  13. Fisher information framework for time series modeling

    Venkatesan, R. C.; Plastino, A.

    2017-08-01

    A robust prediction model invoking the Takens embedding theorem, whose working hypothesis is obtained via an inference procedure based on the minimum Fisher information principle, is presented. The coefficients of the ansatz, central to the working hypothesis satisfy a time independent Schrödinger-like equation in a vector setting. The inference of (i) the probability density function of the coefficients of the working hypothesis and (ii) the establishing of constraint driven pseudo-inverse condition for the modeling phase of the prediction scheme, is made, for the case of normal distributions, with the aid of the quantum mechanical virial theorem. The well-known reciprocity relations and the associated Legendre transform structure for the Fisher information measure (FIM, hereafter)-based model in a vector setting (with least square constraints) are self-consistently derived. These relations are demonstrated to yield an intriguing form of the FIM for the modeling phase, which defines the working hypothesis, solely in terms of the observed data. Cases for prediction employing time series' obtained from the: (i) the Mackey-Glass delay-differential equation, (ii) one ECG signal from the MIT-Beth Israel Deaconess Hospital (MIT-BIH) cardiac arrhythmia database, and (iii) one ECG signal from the Creighton University ventricular tachyarrhythmia database. The ECG samples were obtained from the Physionet online repository. These examples demonstrate the efficiency of the prediction model. Numerical examples for exemplary cases are provided.

  14. Seismic response time history analyses for KALIMER building with a horizontal and vertical seismic isolation

    Lee, J. H.; Yoo, B.; Koo, K. H. [KAERI, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)

    2001-05-01

    The seismic response time history analyses for the lumped mass models of KALIMER reactor building with a horizontal and vertical seismic isolation are performed for Artificial Time History and Kobe earthquake. The vertical amplification by the horizontal isolation is reduced by a vertical isolation for both earthquakes. The 3% viscous damping and the vertical isolation frequency of 1.5Hz gives a reduced vertical response compared to the fixed base condition at reactor support, and the 9% viscous damping to Kobe earthquake is required to get an equivalent vertical response with a fixed base condition.

  15. Seismic response time history analyses for KALIMER building with a horizontal and vertical seismic isolation

    Lee, J. H.; Yoo, B.; Koo, K. H.

    2001-01-01

    The seismic response time history analyses for the lumped mass models of KALIMER reactor building with a horizontal and vertical seismic isolation are performed for Artificial Time History and Kobe earthquake. The vertical amplification by the horizontal isolation is reduced by a vertical isolation for both earthquakes. The 3% viscous damping and the vertical isolation frequency of 1.5Hz gives a reduced vertical response compared to the fixed base condition at reactor support, and the 9% viscous damping to Kobe earthquake is required to get an equivalent vertical response with a fixed base condition

  16. Modeling and Understanding Time-Evolving Scenarios

    Riccardo Melen

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we consider the problem of modeling application scenarios characterized by variability over time and involving heterogeneous kinds of knowledge. The evolution of distributed technologies creates new and challenging possibilities of integrating different kinds of problem solving methods, obtaining many benefits from the user point of view. In particular, we propose here a multilayer modeling system and adopt the Knowledge Artifact concept to tie together statistical and Artificial Intelligence rule-based methods to tackle problems in ubiquitous and distributed scenarios.

  17. Discrete time modelization of human pilot behavior

    Cavalli, D.; Soulatges, D.

    1975-01-01

    This modelization starts from the following hypotheses: pilot's behavior is a time discrete process, he can perform only one task at a time and his operating mode depends on the considered flight subphase. Pilot's behavior was observed using an electro oculometer and a simulator cockpit. A FORTRAN program has been elaborated using two strategies. The first one is a Markovian process in which the successive instrument readings are governed by a matrix of conditional probabilities. In the second one, strategy is an heuristic process and the concepts of mental load and performance are described. The results of the two aspects have been compared with simulation data.

  18. Linear Parametric Model Checking of Timed Automata

    Hune, Tohmas Seidelin; Romijn, Judi; Stoelinga, Mariëlle

    2001-01-01

    We present an extension of the model checker Uppaal capable of synthesize linear parameter constraints for the correctness of parametric timed automata. The symbolic representation of the (parametric) state-space is shown to be correct. A second contribution of this paper is the identication...... of a subclass of parametric timed automata (L/U automata), for which the emptiness problem is decidable, contrary to the full class where it is know to be undecidable. Also we present a number of lemmas enabling the verication eort to be reduced for L/U automata in some cases. We illustrate our approach...

  19. Relationship Between Time Consumption and Quality of Responses to Drug-related Queries

    Amundstuen Reppe, Linda; Lydersen, Stian; Schjøtt, Jan

    2016-01-01

    in score, –0.05 per hour of work; 95% CI, –0.08 to –0.01; P = 0.005). No such associations were found for the internal experts’ assessment. Implications To our knowledge, this is the first study of the association between time consumption and quality of responses to drug-related queries in DICs......Purpose The aims of this study were to assess the quality of responses produced by drug information centers (DICs) in Scandinavia, and to study the association between time consumption processing queries and the quality of the responses. Methods We posed six identical drug-related queries to seven...... DICs in Scandinavia, and the time consumption required for processing them was estimated. Clinical pharmacologists (internal experts) and general practitioners (external experts) reviewed responses individually. We used mixed model linear regression analyses to study the associations between time...

  20. Mesoscale Modelling of the Response of Aluminas

    Bourne, N. K.

    2006-01-01

    The response of polycrystalline alumina to shock is not well addressed. There are several operating mechanisms that only hypothesized which results in models which are empirical. A similar state of affairs in reactive flow modelling led to the development of mesoscale representations of the flow to illuminate operating mechanisms. In this spirit, a similar effort is undergone for a polycrystalline alumina. Simulations are conducted to observe operating mechanisms at the micron scale. A method is then developed to extend the simulations to meet response at the continuum level where measurements are made. The approach is validated by comparison with continuum experiments. The method and results are presented, and some of the operating mechanisms are illuminated by the observed response

  1. Lawyer Proliferation and the Social Responsibility Model.

    Wines, William A.

    1989-01-01

    Drawing on the model of social responsibility that colleges of business have been teaching, the boom in lawyer education is examined. It is argued that law schools are irresponsible in overselling the benefits of law school graduation, creating a surplus of lawyers whose abilities could be used as well elsewhere. (MSE)

  2. Modelling of Patterns in Space and Time

    Murray, James

    1984-01-01

    This volume contains a selection of papers presented at the work­ shop "Modelling of Patterns in Space and Time", organized by the 80nderforschungsbereich 123, "8tochastische Mathematische Modelle", in Heidelberg, July 4-8, 1983. The main aim of this workshop was to bring together physicists, chemists, biologists and mathematicians for an exchange of ideas and results in modelling patterns. Since the mathe­ matical problems arising depend only partially on the particular field of applications the interdisciplinary cooperation proved very useful. The workshop mainly treated phenomena showing spatial structures. The special areas covered were morphogenesis, growth in cell cultures, competition systems, structured populations, chemotaxis, chemical precipitation, space-time oscillations in chemical reactors, patterns in flames and fluids and mathematical methods. The discussions between experimentalists and theoreticians were especially interesting and effective. The editors hope that these proceedings reflect ...

  3. Modelling of demand response and market power

    Kristoffersen, B.B.; Donslund, B.; Boerre Eriksen, P.

    2004-01-01

    Demand-side flexibility and demand response to high prices are prerequisites for the proper functioning of the Nordic power market. If the consumers are unwilling to respond to high prices, the market may fail the clearing, and this may result in unwanted forced demand disconnections. Being the TSO of Western Denmark, Eltra is responsible of both security of supply and the design of the power market within its area. On this basis, Eltra has developed a new mathematical model tool for analysing the Nordic wholesale market. The model is named MARS (MARket Simulation). The model is able to handle hydropower and thermal production, nuclear power and wind power. Production, demand and exchanges modelled on an hourly basis are new important features of the model. The model uses the same principles as Nord Pool (The Nordic Power Exchange), including the division of the Nordic countries into price areas. On the demand side, price elasticity is taken into account and described by a Cobb-Douglas function. Apart from simulating perfect competition markets, particular attention has been given to modelling imperfect market conditions, i.e. exercise of market power on the supply side. Market power is simulated by using game theory, including the Nash equilibrium concept. The paper gives a short description of the MARS model. Besides, focus is on the application of the model in order to illustrate the importance of demand response in the Nordic market. Simulations with different values of demand elasticity are compared. Calculations are carried out for perfect competition and for the situation in which market power is exercised by the large power producers in the Nordic countries (oligopoly). (au)

  4. Space-time modeling of soil moisture

    Chen, Zijuan; Mohanty, Binayak P.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, Ignacio

    2017-11-01

    A physically derived space-time mathematical representation of the soil moisture field is carried out via the soil moisture balance equation driven by stochastic rainfall forcing. The model incorporates spatial diffusion and in its original version, it is shown to be unable to reproduce the relative fast decay in the spatial correlation functions observed in empirical data. This decay resulting from variations in local topography as well as in local soil and vegetation conditions is well reproduced via a jitter process acting multiplicatively over the space-time soil moisture field. The jitter is a multiplicative noise acting on the soil moisture dynamics with the objective to deflate its correlation structure at small spatial scales which are not embedded in the probabilistic structure of the rainfall process that drives the dynamics. These scales of order of several meters to several hundred meters are of great importance in ecohydrologic dynamics. Properties of space-time correlation functions and spectral densities of the model with jitter are explored analytically, and the influence of the jitter parameters, reflecting variabilities of soil moisture at different spatial and temporal scales, is investigated. A case study fitting the derived model to a soil moisture dataset is presented in detail.

  5. Time series modeling for syndromic surveillance

    Mandl Kenneth D

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Emergency department (ED based syndromic surveillance systems identify abnormally high visit rates that may be an early signal of a bioterrorist attack. For example, an anthrax outbreak might first be detectable as an unusual increase in the number of patients reporting to the ED with respiratory symptoms. Reliably identifying these abnormal visit patterns requires a good understanding of the normal patterns of healthcare usage. Unfortunately, systematic methods for determining the expected number of (ED visits on a particular day have not yet been well established. We present here a generalized methodology for developing models of expected ED visit rates. Methods Using time-series methods, we developed robust models of ED utilization for the purpose of defining expected visit rates. The models were based on nearly a decade of historical data at a major metropolitan academic, tertiary care pediatric emergency department. The historical data were fit using trimmed-mean seasonal models, and additional models were fit with autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA residuals to account for recent trends in the data. The detection capabilities of the model were tested with simulated outbreaks. Results Models were built both for overall visits and for respiratory-related visits, classified according to the chief complaint recorded at the beginning of each visit. The mean absolute percentage error of the ARIMA models was 9.37% for overall visits and 27.54% for respiratory visits. A simple detection system based on the ARIMA model of overall visits was able to detect 7-day-long simulated outbreaks of 30 visits per day with 100% sensitivity and 97% specificity. Sensitivity decreased with outbreak size, dropping to 94% for outbreaks of 20 visits per day, and 57% for 10 visits per day, all while maintaining a 97% benchmark specificity. Conclusions Time series methods applied to historical ED utilization data are an important tool

  6. Outlier Detection in Structural Time Series Models

    Marczak, Martyna; Proietti, Tommaso

    investigate via Monte Carlo simulations how this approach performs for detecting additive outliers and level shifts in the analysis of nonstationary seasonal time series. The reference model is the basic structural model, featuring a local linear trend, possibly integrated of order two, stochastic seasonality......Structural change affects the estimation of economic signals, like the underlying growth rate or the seasonally adjusted series. An important issue, which has attracted a great deal of attention also in the seasonal adjustment literature, is its detection by an expert procedure. The general......–to–specific approach to the detection of structural change, currently implemented in Autometrics via indicator saturation, has proven to be both practical and effective in the context of stationary dynamic regression models and unit–root autoregressions. By focusing on impulse– and step–indicator saturation, we...

  7. Sensitivity and response time improvements in millimeter-wave spectrometers

    Kolbe, W.F.; Leskovar, B.

    1980-09-01

    A new version of a microwave spectrometer for the detection of gaseous pollutants and other atmospheric constituents is described. The spectrometer, which operates in the vicinity of 70 GHz, employs a Fabry-Perot resonator as a sample cell and uses superhetrodyne detection for high sensitivity. The spectrometer has been modified to incorporate a frequency doubler modulated at 30 MHz to permit operation with a single Gunn oscillator source. As a result, faster response time and somewhat greater sensitivity are obtained. The spectrometer is capable of detecting a minimum concentration of 1 ppM of SO 2 diluted in air with a 1 second time constant. For OCS diluted in air, the minimum detectable concentration is 800 ppB and with a 10 second time constant 300 ppB

  8. Item Response Theory Models for Performance Decline during Testing

    Jin, Kuan-Yu; Wang, Wen-Chung

    2014-01-01

    Sometimes, test-takers may not be able to attempt all items to the best of their ability (with full effort) due to personal factors (e.g., low motivation) or testing conditions (e.g., time limit), resulting in poor performances on certain items, especially those located toward the end of a test. Standard item response theory (IRT) models fail to…

  9. A motivational model for environmentally responsible behavior.

    Tabernero, Carmen; Hernández, Bernardo

    2012-07-01

    This paper presents a study examining whether self-efficacy and intrinsic motivation are related to environmentally responsible behavior (ERB). The study analysed past environmental behavior, self-regulatory mechanisms (self-efficacy, satisfaction, goals), and intrinsic and extrinsic motivation in relation to ERBs in a sample of 156 university students. Results show that all the motivational variables studied are linked to ERB. The effects of self-efficacy on ERB are mediated by the intrinsic motivation responses of the participants. A theoretical model was created by means of path analysis, revealing the power of motivational variables to predict ERB. Structural equation modeling was used to test and fit the research model. The role of motivational variables is discussed with a view to creating adequate learning contexts and experiences to generate interest and new sensations in which self-efficacy and affective reactions play an important role.

  10. Time orientation, planning horizons and responsibility into the future

    Svenson, O.; Nilsson, G.

    1988-01-01

    Subjects of four categories (social science students, engineering students, retired people and nuclear waste experts) were asked about past events, planning, risks and future time with emphasis on energy related issues and in particular questions concerning spent nuclear waste. Among, the results reported it was found that events in the past were located more or less correctly and that events further back systematically too close to the present. Today's responsibility into the future was judged to cover 3 to 6 generations ahead and an adequate planning horizon for a local community to be on the average 11 to 14 years. Adequate planning horizons for the handling of spent nuclear fuel were judged to be from 100 to 500 years. The responsibility for effects of today's decisions was judged to be from about 100 to 300 years into the future for environmental pollution and from about 50 to 600 years for nuclear waste. However, non-negliqable proportions of the subjects choose a more moral standpoint and gave answers indicating that responsibility had to be unlimited. Some sex differences were found and an interaction with age offered as a hypothesis to be investigated in the future. Interrelations between clusters of questions revealed some links from past time and planning to judgements of environmental and nuclear power related risks. (orig.)

  11. A generalized additive regression model for survival times

    Scheike, Thomas H.

    2001-01-01

    Additive Aalen model; counting process; disability model; illness-death model; generalized additive models; multiple time-scales; non-parametric estimation; survival data; varying-coefficient models......Additive Aalen model; counting process; disability model; illness-death model; generalized additive models; multiple time-scales; non-parametric estimation; survival data; varying-coefficient models...

  12. Caire - A real-time feedback system for emergency response

    Braun, H.; Brenk, H.D.; de Witt, H.

    1991-01-01

    In cases of nuclear emergencies it is the primary task of emergency response forces and decision making authorities to act properly. Whatever the specific reason for the contingency may be, a quick and most accurate estimate of the radiation exposure in consequence of the emergency must be made. This is a necessary prerequisite for decisions on protective measures and off-site emergency management. With respect to this fact ant the recent experience of the Chernobyl accident, remote monitoring systems have increased their importance as an inherent part of environmental surveillance installations in the FRG and in other countries. The existing systems in Germany are designed to cover both, routine operation and emergency situations. They provide site specific meteorological data, gross effluent dose rates, and dose rate measurements at on-site and approximately 30 off-site locations in the vicinity of a plant. Based on such telemetric surveillance networks an advanced automatic on-line system named CAIRE (Computer Aided Response to Emergencies) has been developed as a real time emergency response tool for nuclear facilities. this tool is designed to provide decision makers with most relevant radiation exposure data of the population at risk. The development phase of CAIRE has already been finished. CAIRE is now in an operational status and available for applications in emergency planning and response

  13. Modeling the mechanical response of PBX 9501

    Ragaswamy, Partha [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Lewis, Matthew W [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Liu, Cheng [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Thompson, Darla G [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2010-01-01

    An engineering overview of the mechanical response of Plastic-Bonded eXplosives (PBXs), specifically PBX 9501, will be provided with emphasis on observed mechanisms associated with different types of mechanical testing. Mechanical tests in the form of uniaxial tension, compression, cyclic loading, creep (compression and tension), and Hopkinson bar show strain rate and temperature dependence. A range of mechanical behavior is observed which includes small strain recoverable response in the form of viscoelasticity; change in stiffness and softening beyond peak strength due to damage in the form microcracks, debonding, void formation and the growth of existing voids; inelastic response in the form of irrecoverable strain as shown in cyclic tests, and viscoelastic creep combined with plastic response as demonstrated in creep and recovery tests. The main focus of this paper is to elucidate the challenges and issues involved in modeling the mechanical behavior of PBXs for simulating thermo-mechanical responses in engineering components. Examples of validation of a constitutive material model based on a few of the observed mechanisms will be demonstrated against three point bending, split Hopkinson pressure bar and Brazilian disk geometry.

  14. Development of constitutive model for composites exhibiting time dependent properties

    Pupure, L; Joffe, R; Varna, J; Nyström, B

    2013-01-01

    Regenerated cellulose fibres and their composites exhibit highly nonlinear behaviour. The mechanical response of these materials can be successfully described by the model developed by Schapery for time-dependent materials. However, this model requires input parameters that are experimentally determined via large number of time-consuming tests on the studied composite material. If, for example, the volume fraction of fibres is changed we have a different material and new series of experiments on this new material are required. Therefore the ultimate objective of our studies is to develop model which determines the composite behaviour based on behaviour of constituents of the composite. This paper gives an overview of problems and difficulties, associated with development, implementation and verification of such model

  15. Evaluating perceptual integration: uniting response-time- and accuracy-based methodologies.

    Eidels, Ami; Townsend, James T; Hughes, Howard C; Perry, Lacey A

    2015-02-01

    This investigation brings together a response-time system identification methodology (e.g., Townsend & Wenger Psychonomic Bulletin & Review 11, 391-418, 2004a) and an accuracy methodology, intended to assess models of integration across stimulus dimensions (features, modalities, etc.) that were proposed by Shaw and colleagues (e.g., Mulligan & Shaw Perception & Psychophysics 28, 471-478, 1980). The goal was to theoretically examine these separate strategies and to apply them conjointly to the same set of participants. The empirical phases were carried out within an extension of an established experimental design called the double factorial paradigm (e.g., Townsend & Nozawa Journal of Mathematical Psychology 39, 321-359, 1995). That paradigm, based on response times, permits assessments of architecture (parallel vs. serial processing), stopping rule (exhaustive vs. minimum time), and workload capacity, all within the same blocks of trials. The paradigm introduced by Shaw and colleagues uses a statistic formally analogous to that of the double factorial paradigm, but based on accuracy rather than response times. We demonstrate that the accuracy measure cannot discriminate between parallel and serial processing. Nonetheless, the class of models supported by the accuracy data possesses a suitable interpretation within the same set of models supported by the response-time data. The supported model, consistent across individuals, is parallel and has limited capacity, with the participants employing the appropriate stopping rule for the experimental setting.

  16. Modelling tourists arrival using time varying parameter

    Suciptawati, P.; Sukarsa, K. G.; Kencana, Eka N.

    2017-06-01

    The importance of tourism and its related sectors to support economic development and poverty reduction in many countries increase researchers’ attentions to study and model tourists’ arrival. This work is aimed to demonstrate time varying parameter (TVP) technique to model the arrival of Korean’s tourists to Bali. The number of Korean tourists whom visiting Bali for period January 2010 to December 2015 were used to model the number of Korean’s tourists to Bali (KOR) as dependent variable. The predictors are the exchange rate of Won to IDR (WON), the inflation rate in Korea (INFKR), and the inflation rate in Indonesia (INFID). Observing tourists visit to Bali tend to fluctuate by their nationality, then the model was built by applying TVP and its parameters were approximated using Kalman Filter algorithm. The results showed all of predictor variables (WON, INFKR, INFID) significantly affect KOR. For in-sample and out-of-sample forecast with ARIMA’s forecasted values for the predictors, TVP model gave mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) as much as 11.24 percent and 12.86 percent, respectively.

  17. NGC1300 dynamics - II. The response models

    Kalapotharakos, C.; Patsis, P. A.; Grosbøl, P.

    2010-10-01

    We study the stellar response in a spectrum of potentials describing the barred spiral galaxy NGC1300. These potentials have been presented in a previous paper and correspond to three different assumptions as regards the geometry of the galaxy. For each potential we consider a wide range of Ωp pattern speed values. Our goal is to discover the geometries and the Ωp supporting specific morphological features of NGC1300. For this purpose we use the method of response models. In order to compare the images of NGC1300 with the density maps of our models, we define a new index which is a generalization of the Hausdorff distance. This index helps us to find out quantitatively which cases reproduce specific features of NGC1300 in an objective way. Furthermore, we construct alternative models following a Schwarzschild-type technique. By this method we vary the weights of the various energy levels, and thus the orbital contribution of each energy, in order to minimize the differences between the response density and that deduced from the surface density of the galaxy, under certain assumptions. We find that the models corresponding to Ωp ~ 16 and 22 kms-1kpc-1 are able to reproduce efficiently certain morphological features of NGC1300, with each one having its advantages and drawbacks. Based on observations collected at the European Southern Observatory, Chile: programme ESO 69.A-0021. E-mail: ckalapot@phys.uoa.gr (CK); patsis@academyofathens.gr (PAP); pgrosbol@eso.org (PG)

  18. Real-time individualization of the unified model of performance.

    Liu, Jianbo; Ramakrishnan, Sridhar; Laxminarayan, Srinivas; Balkin, Thomas J; Reifman, Jaques

    2017-12-01

    Existing mathematical models for predicting neurobehavioural performance are not suited for mobile computing platforms because they cannot adapt model parameters automatically in real time to reflect individual differences in the effects of sleep loss. We used an extended Kalman filter to develop a computationally efficient algorithm that continually adapts the parameters of the recently developed Unified Model of Performance (UMP) to an individual. The algorithm accomplishes this in real time as new performance data for the individual become available. We assessed the algorithm's performance by simulating real-time model individualization for 18 subjects subjected to 64 h of total sleep deprivation (TSD) and 7 days of chronic sleep restriction (CSR) with 3 h of time in bed per night, using psychomotor vigilance task (PVT) data collected every 2 h during wakefulness. This UMP individualization process produced parameter estimates that progressively approached the solution produced by a post-hoc fitting of model parameters using all data. The minimum number of PVT measurements needed to individualize the model parameters depended upon the type of sleep-loss challenge, with ~30 required for TSD and ~70 for CSR. However, model individualization depended upon the overall duration of data collection, yielding increasingly accurate model parameters with greater number of days. Interestingly, reducing the PVT sampling frequency by a factor of two did not notably hamper model individualization. The proposed algorithm facilitates real-time learning of an individual's trait-like responses to sleep loss and enables the development of individualized performance prediction models for use in a mobile computing platform. © 2017 European Sleep Research Society.

  19. The manifold model for space-time

    Heller, M.

    1981-01-01

    Physical processes happen on a space-time arena. It turns out that all contemporary macroscopic physical theories presuppose a common mathematical model for this arena, the so-called manifold model of space-time. The first part of study is an heuristic introduction to the concept of a smooth manifold, starting with the intuitively more clear concepts of a curve and a surface in the Euclidean space. In the second part the definitions of the Csub(infinity) manifold and of certain structures, which arise in a natural way from the manifold concept, are given. The role of the enveloping Euclidean space (i.e. of the Euclidean space appearing in the manifold definition) in these definitions is stressed. The Euclidean character of the enveloping space induces to the manifold local Euclidean (topological and differential) properties. A suggestion is made that replacing the enveloping Euclidean space by a discrete non-Euclidean space would be a correct way towards the quantization of space-time. (author)

  20. RTMOD: Real-Time MODel evaluation

    Graziani, G; Galmarini, S.; Mikkelsen, T.

    2000-01-01

    The 1998 - 1999 RTMOD project is a system based on an automated statistical evaluation for the inter-comparison of real-time forecasts produced by long-range atmospheric dispersion models for national nuclear emergency predictions of cross-boundary consequences. The background of RTMOD was the 1994 ETEX project that involved about 50 models run in several Institutes around the world to simulate two real tracer releases involving a large part of the European territory. In the preliminary phase of ETEX, three dry runs (i.e. simulations in real-time of fictitious releases) were carried out. At that time, the World Wide Web was not available to all the exercise participants, and plume predictions were therefore submitted to JRC-Ispra by fax and regular mail for subsequent processing. The rapid development of the World Wide Web in the second half of the nineties, together with the experience gained during the ETEX exercises suggested the development of this project. RTMOD featured a web-based user-friendly interface for data submission and an interactive program module for displaying, intercomparison and analysis of the forecasts. RTMOD has focussed on model intercomparison of concentration predictions at the nodes of a regular grid with 0.5 degrees of resolution both in latitude and in longitude, the domain grid extending from 5W to 40E and 40N to 65N. Hypothetical releases were notified around the world to the 28 model forecasters via the web on a one-day warning in advance. They then accessed the RTMOD web page for detailed information on the actual release, and as soon as possible they then uploaded their predictions to the RTMOD server and could soon after start their inter-comparison analysis with other modelers. When additional forecast data arrived, already existing statistical results would be recalculated to include the influence by all available predictions. The new web-based RTMOD concept has proven useful as a practical decision-making tool for realtime

  1. Rapid Time Response: A solution for Manufacturing Issue

    Norazlin N.

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Respond time in manufacturing give the major impact that able to contribute too many manufacturing issues. Based on two worst case scenario occurred where Toyota in 2009 made a massive vehicles call due to car complexity of 11 major models and over 9 million vehicles. The recalls cost at least $2 billion in cost of repair, lost deals and result in lost 5% of its market share in United State of America, while A380 was reported on missing target in new production and leads to delayed market entry due to their weak product life cycle management (PLM. These cases give a sign to all industries to possess and optimize the facilities for better traceability in shortest time period. In Industry 4.0, the traceability and time respond become the factors for high performance manufacturing and rapid time respond able to expedite the traceability process and strengthen the communication level between man, machine and management. The round trip time (RTT experiment gives variant time respond between two difference operating system for intra and inter-platform signal. If this rapid time respond is adopted in any manufacturing process, the delay in traceability on every issue that lead to losses can be successfully avoided.

  2. Meteorological data assimilation for real-time emergency response

    Sugiyama, G.; Chan, S.T.

    1996-11-01

    The US Department of Energy's Atmospheric Release Advisory Capability (ARAC) provides real-time dose assessments of airborne pollutant releases. Diverse data assimilation techniques are required to meet the needs of a new generation of ARAC models and to take advantage of the rapidly expanding availability of meteorological data. We are developing a hierarchy of algorithms to provide gridded meteorological fields which can be used to drive dispersion codes or to provide initial fields for mesoscale models. Data to be processed include winds, temperature, moisture, and turbulence

  3. Response of subassembly model with internals

    Kennedy, J.M.; Belytschko, T.

    1977-01-01

    In safety analysis at the subassembly level, the following aspects of subassembly response are of concern: (1) the structural integrity of the subassembly within which the accident occurs: (2) the structural integrity of adjacent subassemblies, particularly the maintenance of sufficient cross sectional area for flow of the coolant: and (3) prevention of damage to fuel pins in the adjacent subassembly, for this could lead to additional energy release and thus the propagation of the accident. For the purpose of predicting the structural response in such accident environments, a program STRAW has been developed. This is a finite element program which can treat the structure-fluid system consisting of the coolant and the subassembly walls. Both material nonlinearities due to elastic-plastic response and geometric nonlinearities due to large displacements can be treated. The energy source can be represented either by a pressure-time history or an equation of state. (Auth.)

  4. Comparison between linear quadratic and early time dose models

    Chougule, A.A.; Supe, S.J.

    1993-01-01

    During the 70s, much interest was focused on fractionation in radiotherapy with the aim of improving tumor control rate without producing unacceptable normal tissue damage. To compare the radiobiological effectiveness of various fractionation schedules, empirical formulae such as Nominal Standard Dose, Time Dose Factor, Cumulative Radiation Effect and Tumour Significant Dose, were introduced and were used despite many shortcomings. It has been claimed that a recent linear quadratic model is able to predict the radiobiological responses of tumours as well as normal tissues more accurately. We compared Time Dose Factor and Tumour Significant Dose models with the linear quadratic model for tumour regression in patients with carcinomas of the cervix. It was observed that the prediction of tumour regression estimated by the Tumour Significant Dose and Time Dose factor concepts varied by 1.6% from that of the linear quadratic model prediction. In view of the lack of knowledge of the precise values of the parameters of the linear quadratic model, it should be applied with caution. One can continue to use the Time Dose Factor concept which has been in use for more than a decade as its results are within ±2% as compared to that predicted by the linear quadratic model. (author). 11 refs., 3 figs., 4 tabs

  5. RTMOD: Real-Time MODel evaluation

    Graziani, G.; Galmarini, S.; Mikkelsen, Torben

    2000-01-01

    the RTMOD web page for detailed information on the actual release, and as soon as possible they then uploaded their predictions to the RTMOD server and could soon after start their inter-comparison analysis with other modellers. When additionalforecast data arrived, already existing statistical results....... At that time, the World Wide Web was not available to all the exercise participants, and plume predictions were therefore submitted to JRC-Ispra by fax andregular mail for subsequent processing. The rapid development of the World Wide Web in the second half of the nineties, together with the experience gained...... during the ETEX exercises suggested the development of this project. RTMOD featured a web-baseduser-friendly interface for data submission and an interactive program module for displaying, intercomparison and analysis of the forecasts. RTMOD has focussed on model intercomparison of concentration...

  6. Real Time Optimal Control of Supercapacitor Operation for Frequency Response

    Luo, Yusheng; Panwar, Mayank; Mohanpurkar, Manish; Hovsapian, Rob

    2016-07-01

    Supercapacitors are gaining wider applications in power systems due to fast dynamic response. Utilizing supercapacitors by means of power electronics interfaces for power compensation is a proven effective technique. For applications such as requency restoration if the cost of supercapacitors maintenance as well as the energy loss on the power electronics interfaces are addressed. It is infeasible to use traditional optimization control methods to mitigate the impacts of frequent cycling. This paper proposes a Front End Controller (FEC) using Generalized Predictive Control featuring real time receding optimization. The optimization constraints are based on cost and thermal management to enhance to the utilization efficiency of supercapacitors. A rigorous mathematical derivation is conducted and test results acquired from Digital Real Time Simulator are provided to demonstrate effectiveness.

  7. Time Modeling: Salvatore Sciarrino, Windows and Beclouding

    Acácio Tadeu de Camargo Piedade

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available In this article I intend to discuss one of the figures created by the Italian composer Salvatore Sciarrino: the windowed form. After the composer's explanation of this figure, I argue that windows in composition can open inwards and outwards the musical discourse. On one side, they point to the composition's inner ambiences and constitute an internal remission. On the other, they instigate the audience to comprehend the external reference, thereby constructing intertextuality. After the outward window form, I will consider some techniques of distortion, particularly one that I call beclouding. To conclude, I will comment the question of memory and of compostition as time modeling.

  8. Fast-Response-Time Shape-Memory-Effect Foam Actuators

    Jardine, Peter

    2010-01-01

    Bulk shape memory alloys, such as Nitinol or CuAlZn, display strong recovery forces undergoing a phase transformation after being strained in their martensitic state. These recovery forces are used for actuation. As the phase transformation is thermally driven, the response time of the actuation can be slow, as the heat must be passively inserted or removed from the alloy. Shape memory alloy TiNi torque tubes have been investigated for at least 20 years and have demonstrated high actuation forces [3,000 in.-lb (approximately equal to 340 N-m) torques] and are very lightweight. However, they are not easy to attach to existing structures. Adhesives will fail in shear at low-torque loads and the TiNi is not weldable, so that mechanical crimp fits have been generally used. These are not reliable, especially in vibratory environments. The TiNi is also slow to heat up, as it can only be heated indirectly using heater and cooling must be done passively. This has restricted their use to on-off actuators where cycle times of approximately one minute is acceptable. Self-propagating high-temperature synthesis (SHS) has been used in the past to make porous TiNi metal foams. Shape Change Technologies has been able to train SHS derived TiNi to exhibit the shape memory effect. As it is an open-celled material, fast response times were observed when the material was heated using hot and cold fluids. A methodology was developed to make the open-celled porous TiNi foams as a tube with integrated hexagonal ends, which then becomes a torsional actuator with fast response times. Under processing developed independently, researchers were able to verify torques of 84 in.-lb (approximately equal to 9.5 Nm) using an actuator weighing 1.3 oz (approximately equal to 37 g) with very fast (less than 1/16th of a second) initial response times when hot and cold fluids were used to facilitate heat transfer. Integrated structural connections were added as part of the net shape process, eliminating

  9. Modeling of Dynamic Responses in Building Insulation

    Anna Antonyová

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available In this research a measurement systemwas developedfor monitoring humidity and temperature in the cavity between the wall and the insulating material in the building envelope. This new technology does not disturb the insulating material during testing. The measurement system can also be applied to insulation fixed ten or twenty years earlier and sufficiently reveals the quality of the insulation. A mathematical model is proposed to characterize the dynamic responses in the cavity between the wall and the building insulation as influenced by weather conditions.These dynamic responses are manifested as a delay of both humidity and temperature changes in the cavity when compared with the changes in the ambient surrounding of the building. The process is then modeled through numerical methods and statistical analysis of the experimental data obtained using the new system of measurement.

  10. Modeling response variation for radiometric calorimeters

    Mayer, R.L. II.

    1986-01-01

    Radiometric calorimeters are widely used in the DOE complex for accountability measurements of plutonium and tritium. Proper characterization of response variation for these instruments is, therefore, vital for accurate assessment of measurement control as well as for propagation of error calculations. This is not difficult for instruments used to measure items within a narrow range of power values; however, when a single instrument is used to measure items over a wide range of power values, improper estimates of uncertainty can result since traditional error models for radiometric calorimeters assume that uncertainty is not a function of sample power. This paper describes methods which can be used to accurately estimate random response variation for calorimeters used to measure items over a wide range of sample powers. The model is applicable to the two most common modes of calorimeter operation: heater replacement and servo control. 5 refs., 4 figs., 1 tab

  11. Principal response curves: analysis of time-dependent multivariate responses of biological community to stress

    Brink, van den P.J.; Braak, ter C.J.F.

    1999-01-01

    In this paper a novel multivariate method is proposed for the analysis of community response data from designed experiments repeatedly sampled in time. The long-term effects of the insecticide chlorpyrifos on the invertebrate community and the dissolved oxygen (DO)–pH–alkalinity–conductivity

  12. Predicting Footbridge Response using Stochastic Load Models

    Pedersen, Lars; Frier, Christian

    2013-01-01

    Walking parameters such as step frequency, pedestrian mass, dynamic load factor, etc. are basically stochastic, although it is quite common to adapt deterministic models for these parameters. The present paper considers a stochastic approach to modeling the action of pedestrians, but when doing so...... decisions need to be made in terms of statistical distributions of walking parameters and in terms of the parameters describing the statistical distributions. The paper explores how sensitive computations of bridge response are to some of the decisions to be made in this respect. This is useful...

  13. Responsibility modelling for civil emergency planning

    Sommerville, Ian; Storer, Timothy; Lock, Russell

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents a new approach to analysing and understanding civil emergency planning based on the notion of responsibility modelling combined with HAZOPS-style analysis of information requirements. Our goal is to represent complex contingency plans so that they can be more readily understood, so that inconsistencies can be highlighted and vulnerabilities discovered. In this paper, we outline the framework for contingency planning in the United Kingdom and introduce the notion of respons...

  14. Time-based MRPC detector response simulations for the CBM time-of-flight system

    Simon, Christian; Herrmann, Norbert [Physikalisches Institut und Fakultaet fuer Physik und Astronomie, Ruprecht-Karls-Universitaet Heidelberg (Germany); Collaboration: CBM-Collaboration

    2016-07-01

    The design goal of the future Compressed Baryonic Matter (CBM) experiment is to measure rare probes of dense strongly interacting matter with an unprecedented accuracy. Target interaction rates of up to 10 MHz need to be processed by the detector. The time-of-flight (TOF) wall of CBM which should provide hadron identification at particle fluxes of up to a few tens of kHz/cm{sup 2} is composed of high-resolution timing multi-gap resistive plate chambers (MRPCs). Due to the self-triggered digitization and readout scheme of CBM comprising online event reconstruction preparatory Monte Carlo (MC) transport and response simulations including the MRPC array need to be carried out in a time-based fashion. While in an event-based simulation mode interference between MC tracks in a detector volume owing to rate effects or electronics dead time is confined to a single event, time-based response simulations need to take into account track pile-up and interference across events. A proposed time-based digitizer class for CBM-TOF within the CbmRoot software framework is presented.

  15. The effect of loading time on flexible pavement dynamic response: a finite element analysis

    Yin, Hao; Solaimanian, Mansour; Kumar, Tanmay; Stoffels, Shelley

    2007-12-01

    Dynamic response of asphalt concrete (AC) pavements under moving load is a key component for accurate prediction of flexible pavement performance. The time and temperature dependency of AC materials calls for utilizing advanced material characterization and mechanistic theories, such as viscoelasticity and stress/strain analysis. In layered elastic analysis, as implemented in the new Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guide (MEPDG), the time dependency is accounted for by calculating the loading times at different AC layer depths. In this study, the time effect on pavement response was evaluated by means of the concept of “pseudo temperature.” With the pavement temperature measured from instrumented thermocouples, the time and temperature dependency of AC materials was integrated into one single factor, termed “effective temperature.” Via this effective temperature, pavement responses under a transient load were predicted through finite element analysis. In the finite element model, viscoelastic behavior of AC materials was characterized through relaxation moduli, while the layers with unbound granular material were assumed to be in an elastic mode. The analysis was conducted for two different AC mixtures in a simplified flexible pavement structure at two different seasons. Finite element analysis results reveal that the loading time has a more pronounced impact on pavement response in the summer for both asphalt types. The results indicate that for reasonable prediction of dynamic response in flexible pavements, the effect of the depth-dependent loading time on pavement temperature should be considered.

  16. Modeling listeners' emotional response to music.

    Eerola, Tuomas

    2012-10-01

    An overview of the computational prediction of emotional responses to music is presented. Communication of emotions by music has received a great deal of attention during the last years and a large number of empirical studies have described the role of individual features (tempo, mode, articulation, timbre) in predicting the emotions suggested or invoked by the music. However, unlike the present work, relatively few studies have attempted to model continua of expressed emotions using a variety of musical features from audio-based representations in a correlation design. The construction of the computational model is divided into four separate phases, with a different focus for evaluation. These phases include the theoretical selection of relevant features, empirical assessment of feature validity, actual feature selection, and overall evaluation of the model. Existing research on music and emotions and extraction of musical features is reviewed in terms of these criteria. Examples drawn from recent studies of emotions within the context of film soundtracks are used to demonstrate each phase in the construction of the model. These models are able to explain the dominant part of the listeners' self-reports of the emotions expressed by music and the models show potential to generalize over different genres within Western music. Possible applications of the computational models of emotions are discussed. Copyright © 2012 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

  17. System reliability time-dependent models

    Debernardo, H.D.

    1991-06-01

    A probabilistic methodology for safety system technical specification evaluation was developed. The method for Surveillance Test Interval (S.T.I.) evaluation basically means an optimization of S.T.I. of most important system's periodically tested components. For Allowed Outage Time (A.O.T.) calculations, the method uses system reliability time-dependent models (A computer code called FRANTIC III). A new approximation, which was called Independent Minimal Cut Sets (A.C.I.), to compute system unavailability was also developed. This approximation is better than Rare Event Approximation (A.E.R.) and the extra computing cost is neglectible. A.C.I. was joined to FRANTIC III to replace A.E.R. on future applications. The case study evaluations verified that this methodology provides a useful probabilistic assessment of surveillance test intervals and allowed outage times for many plant components. The studied system is a typical configuration of nuclear power plant safety systems (two of three logic). Because of the good results, these procedures will be used by the Argentine nuclear regulatory authorities in evaluation of technical specification of Atucha I and Embalse nuclear power plant safety systems. (Author) [es

  18. Improving linear accelerator service response with a real- time electronic event reporting system.

    Hoisak, Jeremy D P; Pawlicki, Todd; Kim, Gwe-Ya; Fletcher, Richard; Moore, Kevin L

    2014-09-08

    To track linear accelerator performance issues, an online event recording system was developed in-house for use by therapists and physicists to log the details of technical problems arising on our institution's four linear accelerators. In use since October 2010, the system was designed so that all clinical physicists would receive email notification when an event was logged. Starting in October 2012, we initiated a pilot project in collaboration with our linear accelerator vendor to explore a new model of service and support, in which event notifications were also sent electronically directly to dedicated engineers at the vendor's technical help desk, who then initiated a response to technical issues. Previously, technical issues were reported by telephone to the vendor's call center, which then disseminated information and coordinated a response with the Technical Support help desk and local service engineers. The purpose of this work was to investigate the improvements to clinical operations resulting from this new service model. The new and old service models were quantitatively compared by reviewing event logs and the oncology information system database in the nine months prior to and after initiation of the project. Here, we focus on events that resulted in an inoperative linear accelerator ("down" machine). Machine downtime, vendor response time, treatment cancellations, and event resolution were evaluated and compared over two equivalent time periods. In 389 clinical days, there were 119 machine-down events: 59 events before and 60 after introduction of the new model. In the new model, median time to service response decreased from 45 to 8 min, service engineer dispatch time decreased 44%, downtime per event decreased from 45 to 20 min, and treatment cancellations decreased 68%. The decreased vendor response time and reduced number of on-site visits by a service engineer resulted in decreased downtime and decreased patient treatment cancellations.

  19. Time-response shaping using output to input saturation transformation

    Chambon, E.; Burlion, L.; Apkarian, P.

    2018-03-01

    For linear systems, the control law design is often performed so that the resulting closed loop meets specific frequency-domain requirements. However, in many cases, it may be observed that the obtained controller does not enforce time-domain requirements amongst which the objective of keeping a scalar output variable in a given interval. In this article, a transformation is proposed to convert prescribed bounds on an output variable into time-varying saturations on the synthesised linear scalar control law. This transformation uses some well-chosen time-varying coefficients so that the resulting time-varying saturation bounds do not overlap in the presence of disturbances. Using an anti-windup approach, it is obtained that the origin of the resulting closed loop is globally asymptotically stable and that the constrained output variable satisfies the time-domain constraints in the presence of an unknown finite-energy-bounded disturbance. An application to a linear ball and beam model is presented.

  20. Prediction of the human response time with the similarity and quantity of information

    Lee, Sungjin; Heo, Gyunyoung; Chang, Soon Heung

    2006-01-01

    Memory is one of brain processes that are important when trying to understand how people process information. Although a large number of studies have been made on the human performance, little is known about the similarity effect in human performance. The purpose of this paper is to propose and validate the quantitative and predictive model on the human response time in the user interface with the concept of similarity. However, it is not easy to explain the human performance with only similarity or information amount. We are confronted by two difficulties: making the quantitative model on the human response time with the similarity and validating the proposed model by experimental work. We made the quantitative model based on the Hick's law and the law of practice. In addition, we validated the model with various experimental conditions by measuring participants' response time in the environment of computer-based display. Experimental results reveal that the human performance is improved by the user interface's similarity. We think that the proposed model is useful for the user interface design and evaluation phases

  1. Time course of air hunger mirrors the biphasic ventilatory response to hypoxia.

    Moosavi, S H; Banzett, R B; Butler, J P

    2004-12-01

    Determining response dynamics of hypoxic air hunger may provide information of use in clinical practice and will improve understanding of basic dyspnea mechanisms. It is hypothesized that air hunger arises from projection of reflex brain stem ventilatory drive ("corollary discharge") to forebrain centers. If perceptual response dynamics are unmodified by events between brain stem and cortical awareness, this hypothesis predicts that air hunger will exactly track ventilatory response. Thus, during sustained hypoxia, initial increase in air hunger would be followed by a progressive decline reflecting biphasic reflex ventilatory drive. To test this prediction, we applied a sharp-onset 20-min step of normocapnic hypoxia and compared dynamic response characteristics of air hunger with that of ventilation in 10 healthy subjects. Air hunger was measured during mechanical ventilation (minute ventilation = 9 +/- 1.4 l/min; end-tidal Pco(2) = 37 +/- 2 Torr; end-tidal Po(2) = 45 +/- 7 Torr); ventilatory response was measured during separate free-breathing trials in the same subjects. Discomfort caused by "urge to breathe" was rated every 30 s on a visual analog scale. Both ventilatory and air hunger responses were modeled as delayed double exponentials corresponding to a simple linear first-order response but with a separate first-order adaptation. These models provided adequate fits to both ventilatory and air hunger data (r(2) = 0.88 and 0.66). Mean time constant and time-to-peak response for the average perceptual response (0.36 min(-1) and 3.3 min, respectively) closely matched corresponding values for the average ventilatory response (0.39 min(-1) and 3.1 min). Air hunger response to sustained hypoxia tracked ventilatory drive with a delay of approximately 30 s. Our data provide further support for the corollary discharge hypothesis for air hunger.

  2. Dynamic response modelling and characterization of a vertical electrothermal actuator

    Li, Lijie; Uttamchandani, Deepak

    2009-01-01

    Mathematical modelling and characterization of the dynamic response of a microelectromechanical system (MEMS) electrothermal actuator are presented in this paper. The mathematical model is based on a second-order partial differential equation (one-dimensional heat transfer) and a second-order ordinary differential equation (mechanical dynamic equation). The simulations are implemented using the piecewise finite difference method and the Runge–Kutta algorithm. The electrothermal modelling includes thermal conduction, convective thermal loss and radiation effects. The temperature dependence of resistivity and thermal conductivity of single crystal silicon have also been taken into consideration in the electrothermal modelling. It is calculated from the simulation results that the 'cold' beam of the electrothermal actuator is not only a mechanical constraint but also a thermal response compensation structure. The 0–90% electrothermal rise times for the individual 'hot' and 'cold' beams are calculated to be 32.9 ms and 42.8 ms, respectively, while the 0–90% electrothermal rise time for the whole actuator is calculated to be 17.3 ms. Nonlinear cubic stiffness has been considered in the thermal-mechanical modelling. Dynamic performances of the device have been characterized using a laser vibrometer, and the 0–90% thermal response time of the whole structure has been measured to be 16.8 ms, which matches well with the modelling results. The displacements of the device under different driving conditions and at resonant frequency have been modelled and measured, and the results from both modelling and experiment agree reasonably well. This work provides a comprehensive understanding of the dynamic behaviour of the electrothermal actuation mechanism. The model will be useful for designing control systems for microelectrothermal actuated devices

  3. Incorporating Responsiveness to Marketing Efforts in Brand Choice Modeling

    Dennis Fok

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available We put forward a brand choice model with unobserved heterogeneity that concerns responsiveness to marketing efforts. We introduce two latent segments of households. The first segment is assumed to respond to marketing efforts, while households in the second segment do not do so. Whether a specific household is a member of the first or the second segment at a specific purchase occasion is described by household-specific characteristics and characteristics concerning buying behavior. Households may switch between the two responsiveness states over time. When comparing the performance of our model with alternative choice models that account for various forms of heterogeneity for three different datasets, we find better face validity for our parameters. Our model also forecasts better.

  4. Community Building at the Time of Nargis: The ASEAN Response

    Julio Santiago Amador III

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Cyclone Nargis was one of the most powerful disasters to hit Myanmar and Southeast Asia. Myanmar was criticized internationally for its allegedly slow effort in allowing international aid to enter into the country. This paper examines the criticism levelled against the ASEAN for its slow response in providing aid to the beleaguered in Myanmar and relates that criticism to ASEAN’s disaster management policy. It focuses on ASEAN’s engagement with Myanmar in order to allow humanitarian aid to flow into the country. The paper suggests that in time ASEAN will have to move from its doctrine of non-intervention in the affairs of a sovereign state to one of non-indifference if it wishes to remain relevant. Ultimately, ASEAN will have to re-evaluate its own goals in order to be a more successful apparatus for interstate and regional affairs, especially with respect to humanitarian crises brought about by natural disasters.

  5. QUERY RESPONSE TIME COMPARISON NOSQLDB MONGODB WITH SQLDB ORACLE

    Humasak T. A. Simanjuntak

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Penyimpanan data saat ini terdapat dua jenis yakni relational database dan non-relational database. Kedua jenis DBMS (Database Managemnet System tersebut berbeda dalam berbagai aspek seperti per-formansi eksekusi query, scalability, reliability maupun struktur penyimpanan data. Kajian ini memiliki tujuan untuk mengetahui perbandingan performansi DBMS antara Oracle sebagai jenis relational data-base dan MongoDB sebagai jenis non-relational database dalam mengolah data terstruktur. Eksperimen dilakukan untuk mengetahui perbandingan performansi kedua DBMS tersebut untuk operasi insert, select, update dan delete dengan menggunakan query sederhana maupun kompleks pada database Northwind. Untuk mencapai tujuan eksperimen, 18 query yang terdiri dari 2 insert query, 10 select query, 2 update query dan 2 delete query dieksekusi. Query dieksekusi melalui sebuah aplikasi .Net yang dibangun sebagai perantara antara user dengan basis data. Eksperimen dilakukan pada tabel dengan atau tanpa relasi pada Oracle dan embedded atau bukan embedded dokumen pada MongoDB. Response time untuk setiap eksekusi query dibandingkan dengan menggunakan metode statistik. Eksperimen menunjukkan response time query untuk proses select, insert, dan update pada MongoDB lebih cepatdaripada Oracle. MongoDB lebih cepat 64.8 % untuk select query;MongoDB lebihcepat 72.8 % untuk insert query dan MongoDB lebih cepat 33.9 % untuk update query. Pada delete query, Oracle lebih cepat 96.8 % daripada MongoDB untuk table yang berelasi, tetapi MongoDB lebih cepat 83.8 % daripada Oracle untuk table yang tidak memiliki relasi.Untuk query kompleks dengan Map Reduce pada MongoDB lebih lambat 97.6% daripada kompleks query dengan aggregate function pada Oracle.

  6. Continuous-time model of structural balance.

    Marvel, Seth A; Kleinberg, Jon; Kleinberg, Robert D; Strogatz, Steven H

    2011-02-01

    It is not uncommon for certain social networks to divide into two opposing camps in response to stress. This happens, for example, in networks of political parties during winner-takes-all elections, in networks of companies competing to establish technical standards, and in networks of nations faced with mounting threats of war. A simple model for these two-sided separations is the dynamical system dX/dt = X(2), where X is a matrix of the friendliness or unfriendliness between pairs of nodes in the network. Previous simulations suggested that only two types of behavior were possible for this system: Either all relationships become friendly or two hostile factions emerge. Here we prove that for generic initial conditions, these are indeed the only possible outcomes. Our analysis yields a closed-form expression for faction membership as a function of the initial conditions and implies that the initial amount of friendliness in large social networks (started from random initial conditions) determines whether they will end up in intractable conflict or global harmony.

  7. Continuous Time Dynamic Contraflow Models and Algorithms

    Urmila Pyakurel

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The research on evacuation planning problem is promoted by the very challenging emergency issues due to large scale natural or man-created disasters. It is the process of shifting the maximum number of evacuees from the disastrous areas to the safe destinations as quickly and efficiently as possible. Contraflow is a widely accepted model for good solution of evacuation planning problem. It increases the outbound road capacity by reversing the direction of roads towards the safe destination. The continuous dynamic contraflow problem sends the maximum number of flow as a flow rate from the source to the sink in every moment of time unit. We propose the mathematical model for the continuous dynamic contraflow problem. We present efficient algorithms to solve the maximum continuous dynamic contraflow and quickest continuous contraflow problems on single source single sink arbitrary networks and continuous earliest arrival contraflow problem on single source single sink series-parallel networks with undefined supply and demand. We also introduce an approximation solution for continuous earliest arrival contraflow problem on two-terminal arbitrary networks.

  8. Analysis of Time and Space Invariance of BOLD Responses in the Rat Visual System

    Bailey, Christopher; Sanganahalli, Basavaraju G; Herman, Peter

    2012-01-01

    Neuroimaging studies of functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) and electrophysiology provide the linkage between neural activity and the blood oxygenation level-dependent (BOLD) response. Here, BOLD responses to light flashes were imaged at 11.7T and compared with neural recordings from...... for general linear modeling (GLM) of BOLD responses. Light flashes induced high magnitude neural/BOLD responses reproducibly from both regions. However, neural/BOLD responses from SC and V1 were markedly different. SC signals followed the boxcar shape of the stimulation paradigm at all flash rates, whereas V1...... signals were characterized by onset/offset transients that exhibited different flash rate dependencies. We find that IRF(SC) is generally time-invariant across wider flash rate range compared with IRF(V1), whereas IRF(SC) and IRF(V1) are both space invariant. These results illustrate the importance...

  9. Comparison study of time history and response spectrum responses for multiply supported piping systems

    Wang, Y.K.; Subudhi, M.; Bezler, P.

    1983-01-01

    In the past decade, several investigators have studied the problem of independent support excitation of a multiply supported piping system to identify the real need for such an analysis. This approach offers an increase in accuracy at a small increase in computational costs. To assess the method, studies based on the response spectrum approach using independent support motions for each group of commonly connected supports were performed. The results obtained from this approach were compared with the conventional envelope spectrum and time history solutions. The present study includes a mathematical formulation of the independent support motion analysis method suitable for implementation into an existing all purpose piping code PSAFE2 and a comparison of the solutions for some typical piping system using both Time History and Response Spectrum Methods. The results obtained from the Response Spectrum Methods represent the upper bound solution at most points in the piping system. Similarly, the Seismic Anchor Movement analysis based on the SRP method over predicts the responses near the support points and under predicts at points away from the supports

  10. Presentation and response timing accuracy in Adobe Flash and HTML5/JavaScript Web experiments.

    Reimers, Stian; Stewart, Neil

    2015-06-01

    Web-based research is becoming ubiquitous in the behavioral sciences, facilitated by convenient, readily available participant pools and relatively straightforward ways of running experiments: most recently, through the development of the HTML5 standard. Although in most studies participants give untimed responses, there is a growing interest in being able to record response times online. Existing data on the accuracy and cross-machine variability of online timing measures are limited, and generally they have compared behavioral data gathered on the Web with similar data gathered in the lab. For this article, we took a more direct approach, examining two ways of running experiments online-Adobe Flash and HTML5 with CSS3 and JavaScript-across 19 different computer systems. We used specialist hardware to measure stimulus display durations and to generate precise response times to visual stimuli in order to assess measurement accuracy, examining effects of duration, browser, and system-to-system variability (such as across different Windows versions), as well as effects of processing power and graphics capability. We found that (a) Flash and JavaScript's presentation and response time measurement accuracy are similar; (b) within-system variability is generally small, even in low-powered machines under high load; (c) the variability of measured response times across systems is somewhat larger; and (d) browser type and system hardware appear to have relatively small effects on measured response times. Modeling of the effects of this technical variability suggests that for most within- and between-subjects experiments, Flash and JavaScript can both be used to accurately detect differences in response times across conditions. Concerns are, however, noted about using some correlational or longitudinal designs online.

  11. Solving a Location, Allocation, and Capacity Planning Problem with Dynamic Demand and Response Time Service Level

    Carrie Ka Yuk Lin

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Logistic systems with uncertain demand, travel time, and on-site processing time are studied here where sequential trip travel is allowed. The relationship between three levels of decisions: facility location, demand allocation, and resource capacity (number of service units, satisfying the response time requirement, is analysed. The problem is formulated as a stochastic mixed integer program. A simulation-based hybrid heuristic is developed to solve the dynamic problem under different response time service level. An initial solution is obtained from solving static location-allocation models, followed by iterative improvement of the three levels of decisions by ejection, reinsertion procedure with memory of feasible and infeasible service regions. Results indicate that a higher response time service level could be achieved by allocating a given resource under an appropriate decentralized policy. Given a response time requirement, the general trend is that the minimum total capacity initially decreases with more facilities. During this stage, variability in travel time has more impact on capacity than variability in demand arrivals. Thereafter, the total capacity remains stable and then gradually increases. When service level requirement is high, the dynamic dispatch based on first-come-first-serve rule requires smaller capacity than the one by nearest-neighbour rule.

  12. The first-passage time distribution for the diffusion model with variable drift

    Blurton, Steven Paul; Kesselmeier, Miriam; Gondan, Matthias

    2017-01-01

    across trials. This extra flexibility allows accounting for slow errors that often occur in response time experiments. So far, the predicted response time distributions were obtained by numerical evaluation as analytical solutions were not available. Here, we present an analytical expression...... for the cumulative first-passage time distribution in the diffusion model with normally distributed trial-to-trial variability in the drift. The solution is obtained with predefined precision, and its evaluation turns out to be extremely fast.......The Ratcliff diffusion model is now arguably the most widely applied model for response time data. Its major advantage is its description of both response times and the probabilities for correct as well as incorrect responses. The model assumes a Wiener process with drift between two constant...

  13. Model Predictive Control based on Finite Impulse Response Models

    Prasath, Guru; Jørgensen, John Bagterp

    2008-01-01

    We develop a regularized l2 finite impulse response (FIR) predictive controller with input and input-rate constraints. Feedback is based on a simple constant output disturbance filter. The performance of the predictive controller in the face of plant-model mismatch is investigated by simulations...... and related to the uncertainty of the impulse response coefficients. The simulations can be used to benchmark l2 MPC against FIR based robust MPC as well as to estimate the maximum performance improvements by robust MPC....

  14. Timing and position response of a block detector for fast neutron time-of-flight imaging

    Laubach, M.A., E-mail: mlaubach@utk.edu [Department of Nuclear Engineering, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN 37996 (United States); Hayward, J.P., E-mail: jhayward@utk.edu [Department of Nuclear Engineering, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN 37996 (United States); Oak Ridge National Laboratory, 1 Bethel Valley Rd., Oak Ridge, TN 37831 (United States); Zhang, X., E-mail: xzhang39@utk.edu [Department of Nuclear Engineering, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN 37996 (United States); Cates, J.W., E-mail: jcates7@vols.utk.edu [Department of Nuclear Engineering, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN 37996 (United States)

    2014-11-01

    Our research effort seeks to improve the spatial and timing performance of a block detector made of a pixilated plastic scintillator (EJ-200), first demonstrated as part of Oak Ridge National Laboratory's Advanced Portable Neutron Imaging System. Improvement of the position and time response is necessary to achieve better resolution and contrast in the images of shielded special nuclear material. Time-of-flight is used to differentiate between gamma and different sources of neutrons (e.g., transmission and fission neutrons). Factors limiting the timing and position performance of the neutron detector have been revealed through simulations and measurements. Simulations have suggested that the degradation in the ability to resolve pixels in the neutron detector is due to those interactions occurring near the light guide. The energy deposition within the neutron detector is shown to affect position performance and imaging efficiency. This examination details how energy cuts improve the position performance and degrade the imaging efficiency. Measurements have shown the neutron detector to have a timing resolution of σ=238 ps. The majority of this timing uncertainty is from the depth-of-interaction (DOI) of the neutron which is confirmed by simulations and analytical calculations.

  15. Computation Offloading for Frame-Based Real-Time Tasks under Given Server Response Time Guarantees

    Anas S. M. Toma

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Computation offloading has been adopted to improve the performance of embedded systems by offloading the computation of some tasks, especially computation-intensive tasks, to servers or clouds. This paper explores computation offloading for real-time tasks in embedded systems, provided given response time guarantees from the servers, to decide which tasks should be offloaded to get the results in time. We consider frame-based real-time tasks with the same period and relative deadline. When the execution order of the tasks is given, the problem can be solved in linear time. However, when the execution order is not specified, we prove that the problem is NP-complete. We develop a pseudo-polynomial-time algorithm for deriving feasible schedules, if they exist.  An approximation scheme is also developed to trade the error made from the algorithm and the complexity. Our algorithms are extended to minimize the period/relative deadline of the tasks for performance maximization. The algorithms are evaluated with a case study for a surveillance system and synthesized benchmarks.

  16. Competition for Antigen between Th1 and Th2 Responses Determines the Timing of the Immune Response Switch during Mycobaterium avium Subspecies paratuberulosis Infection in Ruminants

    Magombedze, Gesham; Eda, Shigetoshi; Ganusov, Vitaly V.

    2014-01-01

    Johne's disease (JD), a persistent and slow progressing infection of ruminants such as cows and sheep, is caused by slow replicating bacilli Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (MAP) infecting macrophages in the gut. Infected animals initially mount a cell-mediated CD4 T cell response against MAP which is characterized by the production of interferon (Th1 response). Over time, Th1 response diminishes in most animals and antibody response to MAP antigens becomes dominant (Th2 response). The switch from Th1 to Th2 response occurs concomitantly with disease progression and shedding of the bacteria in feces. Mechanisms controlling this Th1/Th2 switch remain poorly understood. Because Th1 and Th2 responses are known to cross-inhibit each other, it is unclear why initially strong Th1 response is lost over time. Using a novel mathematical model of the immune response to MAP infection we show that the ability of extracellular bacteria to persist outside of macrophages naturally leads to switch of the cellular response to antibody production. Several additional mechanisms may also contribute to the timing of the Th1/Th2 switch including the rate of proliferation of Th1/Th2 responses at the site of infection, efficiency at which immune responses cross-inhibit each other, and the rate at which Th1 response becomes exhausted over time. Our basic model reasonably well explains four different kinetic patterns of the Th1/Th2 responses in MAP-infected sheep by variability in the initial bacterial dose and the efficiency of the MAP-specific T cell responses. Taken together, our novel mathematical model identifies factors of bacterial and host origin that drive kinetics of the immune response to MAP and provides the basis for testing the impact of vaccination or early treatment on the duration of infection. PMID:24415928

  17. Benchmarking nuclear models for Gamow–Teller response

    Litvinova, E.; Brown, B.A.; Fang, D.-L.; Marketin, T.; Zegers, R.G.T.

    2014-01-01

    A comparative study of the nuclear Gamow–Teller response (GTR) within conceptually different state-of-the-art approaches is presented. Three nuclear microscopic models are considered: (i) the recently developed charge-exchange relativistic time blocking approximation (RTBA) based on the covariant density functional theory, (ii) the shell model (SM) with an extended “jj77” model space and (iii) the non-relativistic quasiparticle random-phase approximation (QRPA) with a Brueckner G-matrix effective interaction. We study the physics cases where two or all three of these models can be applied. The Gamow–Teller response functions are calculated for 208 Pb, 132 Sn and 78 Ni within both RTBA and QRPA. The strengths obtained for 208 Pb are compared to data that enable a firm model benchmarking. For the nucleus 132 Sn, also SM calculations are performed within the model space truncated at the level of a particle–hole (ph) coupled to vibration configurations. This allows a consistent comparison to the RTBA where ph⊗phonon coupling is responsible for the spreading width and considerable quenching of the GTR. Differences between the models and perspectives of their future developments are discussed.

  18. Benchmarking nuclear models for Gamow–Teller response

    Litvinova, E., E-mail: elena.litvinova@wmich.edu [Department of Physics, Western Michigan University, Kalamazoo, MI 49008-5252 (United States); National Superconducting Cyclotron Laboratory, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48824-1321 (United States); Brown, B.A. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48824-1321 (United States); National Superconducting Cyclotron Laboratory, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48824-1321 (United States); Fang, D.-L. [National Superconducting Cyclotron Laboratory, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48824-1321 (United States); Joint Institute for Nuclear Astrophysics, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48824-1321 (United States); Marketin, T. [Physics Department, Faculty of Science, University of Zagreb (Croatia); Zegers, R.G.T. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48824-1321 (United States); National Superconducting Cyclotron Laboratory, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48824-1321 (United States); Joint Institute for Nuclear Astrophysics, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48824-1321 (United States)

    2014-03-07

    A comparative study of the nuclear Gamow–Teller response (GTR) within conceptually different state-of-the-art approaches is presented. Three nuclear microscopic models are considered: (i) the recently developed charge-exchange relativistic time blocking approximation (RTBA) based on the covariant density functional theory, (ii) the shell model (SM) with an extended “jj77” model space and (iii) the non-relativistic quasiparticle random-phase approximation (QRPA) with a Brueckner G-matrix effective interaction. We study the physics cases where two or all three of these models can be applied. The Gamow–Teller response functions are calculated for {sup 208}Pb, {sup 132}Sn and {sup 78}Ni within both RTBA and QRPA. The strengths obtained for {sup 208}Pb are compared to data that enable a firm model benchmarking. For the nucleus {sup 132}Sn, also SM calculations are performed within the model space truncated at the level of a particle–hole (ph) coupled to vibration configurations. This allows a consistent comparison to the RTBA where ph⊗phonon coupling is responsible for the spreading width and considerable quenching of the GTR. Differences between the models and perspectives of their future developments are discussed.

  19. Simulations of hybrid system varying solar radiation and microturbine response time

    Yolanda Fernández Ribaya

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Hybrid power systems, such as combinations of renewable power sources with intermittent power production and non-renewable power sources, theoretically increase the reliability and thus integration of renewable sources in the electrical system. However, a recent increase in the number of hybrid installations has sparked interest in the effects of their connection to the grid, especially in remote areas. This paper analyses a photovoltaic-gas microturbine hybrid system dimensioned to be installed in La Paz (Mexico.The research presented in this paper studies and quantifies the effects on the total electric power produced, varying both the solar radiation and the gas microturbine response time. The gas microturbine and the photovoltaic panels are modelled using Matlab/Simulink software, obtaining a platform where different tests to simulate real conditions have been executed. They consist of diverse ramps of irradiance that replicate solar radiation variations, and different microturbine response times reproduced by the time constants of a first order transfer function that models the microturbine dynamic response. The results obtained show that when radiation varies quickly it does not produce significant differences in the power guarantee or the microturbine gas consumption, to any microturbine response time. However, these two parameters are highly variable with smooth radiance variations. The maximum total power variation decreases greatly as the radiation variation gets lower. In addition, by decreasing the microturbine response time, it is possible to appreciably increase the power guarantee although the maximum power variation and gas consumption increase. Only in cases of low radiation variation is there no appreciable difference in the maximum power variation obtained by the different turbine response times.

  20. Simulations of hybrid system varying solar radiation and microturbine response time

    Fernández Ribaya, Yolanda, E-mail: fernandezryolanda@uniovi.es; Álvarez, Eduardo; Paredes Sánchez, José Pablo; Xiberta Bernat, Jorge [Department of Energy E.I.M.E.M., University of Oviedo. 13 Independencia Street 2" n" d floor, 36004, Oviedo (Spain)

    2015-07-15

    Hybrid power systems, such as combinations of renewable power sources with intermittent power production and non-renewable power sources, theoretically increase the reliability and thus integration of renewable sources in the electrical system. However, a recent increase in the number of hybrid installations has sparked interest in the effects of their connection to the grid, especially in remote areas. This paper analyses a photovoltaic-gas microturbine hybrid system dimensioned to be installed in La Paz (Mexico).The research presented in this paper studies and quantifies the effects on the total electric power produced, varying both the solar radiation and the gas microturbine response time. The gas microturbine and the photovoltaic panels are modelled using Matlab/Simulink software, obtaining a platform where different tests to simulate real conditions have been executed. They consist of diverse ramps of irradiance that replicate solar radiation variations, and different microturbine response times reproduced by the time constants of a first order transfer function that models the microturbine dynamic response. The results obtained show that when radiation varies quickly it does not produce significant differences in the power guarantee or the microturbine gas consumption, to any microturbine response time. However, these two parameters are highly variable with smooth radiance variations. The maximum total power variation decreases greatly as the radiation variation gets lower. In addition, by decreasing the microturbine response time, it is possible to appreciably increase the power guarantee although the maximum power variation and gas consumption increase. Only in cases of low radiation variation is there no appreciable difference in the maximum power variation obtained by the different turbine response times.

  1. Justification of response time testing requirements for pressure and differential pressure sensors

    Weiss, J.M.; Mayo, C.; Swisher, V.

    1991-01-01

    This paper reports on response time testing (RTT) requirements that were imposed on pressure, differential pressure sensors as a conservative approach to insure that assumptions in the plant safety analyses were met. The purpose of this project has been to identify the need for response time testing using the bases identified in IEEE Standard 338. A combination of plant data analyses, failure modes, and effects analyses (FMEAs) was performed. Eighteen currently qualified sensor models were utilized. The results of these analyses indicate that there are only two failure modes that affect response time, not sensor output concurrently. For these failure modes, appropriate plant actions and testing techniques were identified. Safety system RTT requirements were established by IEEE Standard 338-1975. Criteria for the Periodic Testing of Class IE Power, Protection Systems, presuming the need existed for this testing. This standard established guidelines for periodic testing to verify that loop response times of installed nuclear safety-related equipment were within the limits presumed by the design basis plant transient, accident analyses. The requirements covered all passive, active components in an instrument loop, including sensors. Individual components could be tested either in groups or separately to determine the overall loop response time

  2. Time response prediction of Brazilian Nuclear Power Plant temperature sensors using neural networks

    Santos, Roberto Carlos dos; Pereira, Iraci Martinez, E-mail: rcsantos@ipen.br [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)

    2011-07-01

    This work presents the results of the time constants values predicted from ANN using Angra I Brazilian nuclear power plant data. The signals obtained from LCSR loop current step response test sensors installed in the process presents noise end fluctuations that are inherent of operational conditions. Angra I nuclear power plant has 20 RTDs as part of the protection reactor system. The results were compared with those obtained from traditional way. Primary coolant RTDs (Resistance Temperature Detector) typically feed the plant's control and safety systems and must, therefore, be very accurate and have good dynamic performance. An in-situ test method called LCSR - loop current step response test was developed to measure remotely the response time of RTDs. In the LCSR method, the response time of the sensor is identified by means of the LCSR transformation that involves the dynamic response modal time constants determination using a nodal heat transfer model. For this reason, this calculation is not simple and requires specialized personnel. This work combines the two methodologies, Plunge test and LCSR test, using neural networks. With the use of neural networks it will not be necessary to use the LCSR transformation to determine sensor's time constant and this leads to more robust results. (author)

  3. Time response prediction of Brazilian Nuclear Power Plant temperature sensors using neural networks

    Santos, Roberto Carlos dos; Pereira, Iraci Martinez

    2011-01-01

    This work presents the results of the time constants values predicted from ANN using Angra I Brazilian nuclear power plant data. The signals obtained from LCSR loop current step response test sensors installed in the process presents noise end fluctuations that are inherent of operational conditions. Angra I nuclear power plant has 20 RTDs as part of the protection reactor system. The results were compared with those obtained from traditional way. Primary coolant RTDs (Resistance Temperature Detector) typically feed the plant's control and safety systems and must, therefore, be very accurate and have good dynamic performance. An in-situ test method called LCSR - loop current step response test was developed to measure remotely the response time of RTDs. In the LCSR method, the response time of the sensor is identified by means of the LCSR transformation that involves the dynamic response modal time constants determination using a nodal heat transfer model. For this reason, this calculation is not simple and requires specialized personnel. This work combines the two methodologies, Plunge test and LCSR test, using neural networks. With the use of neural networks it will not be necessary to use the LCSR transformation to determine sensor's time constant and this leads to more robust results. (author)

  4. Modeling of Transient Response of the Wickless Heat Pipes

    Hussien, A.K.A.

    2013-01-01

    Thermosyphons transient response for startup from ambient temperature to steady state until shutdown conditions, is considered a stringent necessity for applications such as electronic, solar, geothermal and even nuclear reactors safety systems. This typically returns to the need to keep the temperature within certain limits before reaching critical conditions. A simple network model is derived for describing the transient response of closed two-phase thermosyphon (CTPT) at startup and shutdown states. In addition, for predicting the effect of operational characteristics of water/copper closed two-phase thermosyphon such as thermal load, filling ratio, evaporator length, and thermosyphon tube diameter. The thermosyphons operation was considered a thermal network of various components with different thermal resistances and dynamic responses. The network model consists of six sub-models. These models are pure conduction in walls of evaporator, adiabatic and condenser, and convection in evaporator pool, evaporator film, and condenser film. So, an energy balance for each sub-model was done to estimate temperatures, heat transfer coefficients, thermal resistances, time constant, and other thermal characteristics that describe the required transient response of the closed two-phase thermosyphon. Governing equations of the transient thermosyphon behavior can be simplified into a set of first-order linear ordinary differential equations. The Runge-Kutta method can be used to obtain transient thermosyphon temperatures from these equations.

  5. Maximizing time from the constraining European Working Time Directive (EWTD): The Heidelberg New Working Time Model.

    Schimmack, Simon; Hinz, Ulf; Wagner, Andreas; Schmidt, Thomas; Strothmann, Hendrik; Büchler, Markus W; Schmitz-Winnenthal, Hubertus

    2014-01-01

    The introduction of the European Working Time Directive (EWTD) has greatly reduced training hours of surgical residents, which translates into 30% less surgical and clinical experience. Such a dramatic drop in attendance has serious implications such compromised quality of medical care. As the surgical department of the University of Heidelberg, our goal was to establish a model that was compliant with the EWTD while avoiding reduction in quality of patient care and surgical training. We first performed workload analyses and performance statistics for all working areas of our department (operation theater, emergency room, specialized consultations, surgical wards and on-call duties) using personal interviews, time cards, medical documentation software as well as data of the financial- and personnel-controlling sector of our administration. Using that information, we specifically designed an EWTD-compatible work model and implemented it. Surgical wards and operating rooms (ORs) were not compliant with the EWTD. Between 5 pm and 8 pm, three ORs were still operating two-thirds of the time. By creating an extended work shift (7:30 am-7:30 pm), we effectively reduced the workload to less than 49% from 4 pm and 8 am, allowing the combination of an eight-hour working day with a 16-hour on call duty; thus, maximizing surgical resident training and ensuring patient continuity of care while maintaining EDTW guidelines. A precise workload analysis is the key to success. The Heidelberg New Working Time Model provides a legal model, which, by avoiding rotating work shifts, assures quality of patient care and surgical training.

  6. Computer Aided Continuous Time Stochastic Process Modelling

    Kristensen, N.R.; Madsen, Henrik; Jørgensen, Sten Bay

    2001-01-01

    A grey-box approach to process modelling that combines deterministic and stochastic modelling is advocated for identification of models for model-based control of batch and semi-batch processes. A computer-aided tool designed for supporting decision-making within the corresponding modelling cycle...

  7. Response of subassembly model with internals

    Kennedy, J.M.; Belytschko, T.

    1977-01-01

    Analytical tools have been developed and validated by controlled sets of experiments to understand the response of an accident and/or single subassembly in an LMFBR reasonably well. They have been subjected to a variety of loadings and boundary environments. Some large subassembly cluster experiments have been performed, however little analytical work has accompanied them because of the lack of suitable analytical tools. Reported are analytical approaches to: (1) development of more sophisiticated models for the subassembly internals, that is, the fuel pins and coolant; (2) development of models for representing three dimensional effects in subassemblies adjacent to the accident subassembly. These analytical developments will provide feasible capabilities for doing economical three-dimensional analysis not previously available

  8. Modeling of Cardiovascular Response to Weightlessness

    Sharp, M. Keith

    1999-01-01

    pressure and, to a limited extent, in extravascular and pedcardial hydrostatic pressure were investigated. A complete hydraulic model of the cardiovascular system was built and flown aboard the NASA KC-135 and a computer model was developed and tested in simulated microgravity. Results obtained with these models have confirmed that a simple lack of hydrostatic pressure within an artificial ventricle causes a decrease in stroke volume. When combined with the acute increase in ventricular pressure associated with the elimination of hydrostatic pressure within the vasculature and the resultant cephalad fluid shift with the models in the upright position, however, stroke volume increased in the models. Imposition of a decreased pedcardial pressure in the computer model and in a simplified hydraulic model increased stroke volume. Physiologic regional fluid shifting was also demonstrated by the models. The unifying parameter characterizing of cardiac response was diastolic ventricular transmural pressure (DVDELTAP) The elimination of intraventricular hydrostatic pressure in O-G decreased DVDELTAP stroke volume, while the elimination of intravascular hydrostatic pressure increased DVDELTAP and stroke volume in the upright posture, but reduced DVDELTAP and stroke volume in the launch posture. The release of gravity on the chest wall and its associated influence on intrathoracic pressure, simulated by a drop in extraventricular pressure4, increased DVDELTAP ans stroke volume.

  9. Reclaiming Spare Capacity and Improving Aperiodic Response Times in Real-Time Environments

    Liu Xue

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Scheduling recurring task sets that allow some instances of the tasks to be skipped produces holes in the schedule which are nonuniformly distributed. Similarly, when the recurring tasks are not strictly periodic but are sporadic, there is extra processor bandwidth arising because of irregular job arrivals. The additional computation capacity that results from skips or sporadic tasks can be reclaimed to service aperiodic task requests efficiently and quickly. We present techniques for improving the response times of aperiodic tasks by identifying nonuniformly distributed spare capacity—because of skips or sporadic tasks—in the schedule and adding such extra capacity to the capacity queue of a BASH server. These gaps can account for a significant portion of aperiodic capacity, and their reclamation results in considerable improvement to aperiodic response times. We present two schemes: NCLB-CBS, which performs well in periodic real-time environments with firm tasks, and NCLB-CUS, which can be deployed when the basic task set to schedule is sporadic. Evaluation via simulations and implementation suggests that performance improvements for aperiodic tasks can be obtained with limited additional overhead.

  10. Ecohydrological responses of a model semiarid system to precipitation pulses after a global change type dry-down depend on growth-form, event size, and time since establishment

    Barron-Gafford, G. A.; Minor, R. L.; Braun, Z.; Potts, D. L.

    2012-12-01

    Woody encroachment into grasslands alters ecosystem structure and function both above- and belowground. Aboveground, woody plant canopies increase leaf area index and alter patterns of interception, infiltration and runoff. Belowground, woody plants alter root distribution and increase maximum rooting depth with the effect of accessing deeper pools of soil moisture and shifting the timing and duration of evapotranspiration. In turn, these woody plants mediate hydrological changes that influence patterns of ecosystem CO2 exchange and productivity. Given projections of more variable precipitation and increased temperatures for many semiarid regions, differences in physiological performance are likely to drive changes in ecosystem-scale carbon and water flux depending on the degree of woody cover. Ultimately, as soil moisture declines with decreased precipitation, differential patterns of environmental sensitivity among growth-forms and their dependence on groundwater will only become more important in determining ecosystem resilience to future change. Here, we created a series of 1-meter deep mesocosms that housed either a woody mesquite shrub, a bunchgrass, or was left as bare soil. Five replicates of each were maintained under current ambient air temperatures, and five replicates were maintained under projected (+4oC) air temperatures. Each mesocosm was outfitted with an array of soil moisture, temperature, water potential, and CO2 exchange concentration sensors at the near-surface, 30, 55, and 80cm depths to quantify patterns of soil moisture and respiratory CO2 exchange efflux in response to rainfall events of varying magnitude and intervening dry periods of varying duration. In addition, we used minirhizotrons to quantify the response of roots to episodic rainfall. During the first year, bunchgrasses photosynthetically outperformed mesquite saplings across a wider range of temperatures under dry conditions, regardless of growth temperature (ambient or +4o

  11. Modeling auditory-nerve responses to electrical stimulation

    Joshi, Suyash Narendra; Dau, Torsten; Epp, Bastian

    2014-01-01

    μs, which is large enough to affect the temporal coding of sounds and hence, potentially, the communication abilities of the CI listener. In the present study, two recently proposed models of electric stimulation of the AN [1,2] were considered in terms of their efficacy to predict the spike timing...... for anodic and cathodic stimulation of the AN of cat [3]. The models’ responses to the electrical pulses of various shapes [4,5,6] were also analyzed. It was found that, while the models can account for the firing rates in response to various biphasic pulse shapes, they fail to correctly describe the timing......Cochlear implants (CI) directly stimulate the auditory nerve (AN), bypassing the mechano-electrical transduction in the inner ear. Trains of biphasic, charge balanced pulses (anodic and cathodic) are used as stimuli to avoid damage of the tissue. The pulses of either polarity are capable...

  12. Ovine model for studying pulmonary immune responses

    Joel, D.D.; Chanana, A.D.

    1984-01-01

    Anatomical features of the sheep lung make it an excellent model for studying pulmonary immunity. Four specific lung segments were identified which drain exclusively to three separate lymph nodes. One of these segments, the dorsal basal segment of the right lung, is drained by the caudal mediastinal lymph node (CMLN). Cannulation of the efferent lymph duct of the CMLN along with highly localized intrabronchial instillation of antigen provides a functional unit with which to study factors involved in development of pulmonary immune responses. Following intrabronchial immunization there was an increased output of lymphoblasts and specific antibody-forming cells in efferent CMLN lymph. Continuous divergence of efferent lymph eliminated the serum antibody response but did not totally eliminate the appearance of specific antibody in fluid obtained by bronchoalveolar lavage. In these studies localized immunization of the right cranial lobe served as a control. Efferent lymphoblasts produced in response to intrabronchial antigen were labeled with 125 I-iododeoxyuridine and their migrational patterns and tissue distribution compared to lymphoblasts obtained from the thoracic duct. The results indicated that pulmonary immunoblasts tend to relocate in lung tissue and reappear with a higher specific activity in pulmonary lymph than in thoracic duct lymph. The reverse was observed with labeled intestinal lymphoblasts. 35 references, 2 figures, 3 tables

  13. Ovine model for studying pulmonary immune responses

    Joel, D.D.; Chanana, A.D.

    1984-11-25

    Anatomical features of the sheep lung make it an excellent model for studying pulmonary immunity. Four specific lung segments were identified which drain exclusively to three separate lymph nodes. One of these segments, the dorsal basal segment of the right lung, is drained by the caudal mediastinal lymph node (CMLN). Cannulation of the efferent lymph duct of the CMLN along with highly localized intrabronchial instillation of antigen provides a functional unit with which to study factors involved in development of pulmonary immune responses. Following intrabronchial immunization there was an increased output of lymphoblasts and specific antibody-forming cells in efferent CMLN lymph. Continuous divergence of efferent lymph eliminated the serum antibody response but did not totally eliminate the appearance of specific antibody in fluid obtained by bronchoalveolar lavage. In these studies localized immunization of the right cranial lobe served as a control. Efferent lymphoblasts produced in response to intrabronchial antigen were labeled with /sup 125/I-iododeoxyuridine and their migrational patterns and tissue distribution compared to lymphoblasts obtained from the thoracic duct. The results indicated that pulmonary immunoblasts tend to relocate in lung tissue and reappear with a higher specific activity in pulmonary lymph than in thoracic duct lymph. The reverse was observed with labeled intestinal lymphoblasts. 35 references, 2 figures, 3 tables.

  14. Temporal Prediction Errors Affect Short-Term Memory Scanning Response Time.

    Limongi, Roberto; Silva, Angélica M

    2016-11-01

    The Sternberg short-term memory scanning task has been used to unveil cognitive operations involved in time perception. Participants produce time intervals during the task, and the researcher explores how task performance affects interval production - where time estimation error is the dependent variable of interest. The perspective of predictive behavior regards time estimation error as a temporal prediction error (PE), an independent variable that controls cognition, behavior, and learning. Based on this perspective, we investigated whether temporal PEs affect short-term memory scanning. Participants performed temporal predictions while they maintained information in memory. Model inference revealed that PEs affected memory scanning response time independently of the memory-set size effect. We discuss the results within the context of formal and mechanistic models of short-term memory scanning and predictive coding, a Bayes-based theory of brain function. We state the hypothesis that our finding could be associated with weak frontostriatal connections and weak striatal activity.

  15. Modeling Coastal Vulnerability through Space and Time.

    Hopper, Thomas; Meixler, Marcia S

    2016-01-01

    Coastal ecosystems experience a wide range of stressors including wave forces, storm surge, sea-level rise, and anthropogenic modification and are thus vulnerable to erosion. Urban coastal ecosystems are especially important due to the large populations these limited ecosystems serve. However, few studies have addressed the issue of urban coastal vulnerability at the landscape scale with spatial data that are finely resolved. The purpose of this study was to model and map coastal vulnerability and the role of natural habitats in reducing vulnerability in Jamaica Bay, New York, in terms of nine coastal vulnerability metrics (relief, wave exposure, geomorphology, natural habitats, exposure, exposure with no habitat, habitat role, erodible shoreline, and surge) under past (1609), current (2015), and future (2080) scenarios using InVEST 3.2.0. We analyzed vulnerability results both spatially and across all time periods, by stakeholder (ownership) and by distance to damage from Hurricane Sandy. We found significant differences in vulnerability metrics between past, current and future scenarios for all nine metrics except relief and wave exposure. The marsh islands in the center of the bay are currently vulnerable. In the future, these islands will likely be inundated, placing additional areas of the shoreline increasingly at risk. Significant differences in vulnerability exist between stakeholders; the Breezy Point Cooperative and Gateway National Recreation Area had the largest erodible shoreline segments. Significant correlations exist for all vulnerability (exposure/surge) and storm damage combinations except for exposure and distance to artificial debris. Coastal protective features, ranging from storm surge barriers and levees to natural features (e.g. wetlands), have been promoted to decrease future flood risk to communities in coastal areas around the world. Our methods of combining coastal vulnerability results with additional data and across multiple time

  16. Oil spill models for emergency response

    Hodgins, D.O.

    1997-01-01

    The need for, and the nature of an oil spill model, were discussed. Modern oil spill models were shown to provide rapid and accurate input of information about a marine spill, as well as to provide powerful visualization methods for displaying output data. Marine oil spill models are designed to answer five questions: (1) where will the oil go in 2, 3, 6, 12, and 24 hours, (2) how fast will it move, (3) how big will the slick get, (4) how much will end up on shore and where, and (5) how do the oil properties change. The models are able to provide timely and accurate results by using reasonably complete algorithms for the physics and chemistry governing oil slick evolution that take advantage of computer visualization methods for displaying output data. These models have been made possible through new technologies which have increased access to environmental data on winds, currents and satellite imaging of slicks. Spill modelling is also evolving by taking advantage of the Internet for both acquisition of input data and dissemination of results. 5 figs

  17. Grid Integration of Aggregated Demand Response, Part 2: Modeling Demand Response in a Production Cost Model

    Hummon, Marissa [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Palchak, David [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Denholm, Paul [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Jorgenson, Jennie [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Olsen, Daniel J. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Kiliccote, Sila [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Matson, Nance [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Sohn, Michael [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Rose, Cody [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Dudley, Junqiao [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Goli, Sasank [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Ma, Ookie [U.S. Dept. of Energy, Washington, DC (United States)

    2013-12-01

    This report is one of a series stemming from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Demand Response and Energy Storage Integration Study. This study is a multi-national-laboratory effort to assess the potential value of demand response (DR) and energy storage to electricity systems with different penetration levels of variable renewable resources and to improve our understanding of associatedmarkets and institutions. This report implements DR resources in the commercial production cost model PLEXOS.

  18. AEROS: a real-time emergency response system for atmospheric releases of toxic material

    Nasstrom, J.S.; Greenly, G.D.

    1986-01-01

    The Atmospheric Release Advisory Capability (ARAC) at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory has developed a sophisticated computer-based real-time emergency response system for radiotoxic releases into the atmosphere. The ARAC Emergency Response Operating System (AEROS) has a centralized computer facility linked to remote site computers, meteorological towers, and meteorological data sources. The system supports certain fixed sites, but has the ability to respond to accidents at arbitrary locations. Product quality and response time are optimized by using complex three-dimensional dispersion models; extensive on-line data bases; automated data processing; and an efficient user interface, employing graphical computer displays and computer-displayed forms. Upon notification, the system automatically initiates a response to an emergency and proceeds through preliminary calculations, automatically processing accident information, meteorological data, and model parameters. The model calculations incorporate mass-consistent three-dimensional wind fields, terrain effects, and particle-in-cell diffusion. Model products are color images of dose or deposition contours overlaid on a base map

  19. [Application of three compartment model and response surface model to clinical anesthesia using Microsoft Excel].

    Abe, Eiji; Abe, Mari

    2011-08-01

    With the spread of total intravenous anesthesia, clinical pharmacology has become more important. We report Microsoft Excel file applying three compartment model and response surface model to clinical anesthesia. On the Microsoft Excel sheet, propofol, remifentanil and fentanyl effect-site concentrations are predicted (three compartment model), and probabilities of no response to prodding, shaking, surrogates of painful stimuli and laryngoscopy are calculated using predicted effect-site drug concentration. Time-dependent changes in these calculated values are shown graphically. Recent development in anesthetic drug interaction studies are remarkable, and its application to clinical anesthesia with this Excel file is simple and helpful for clinical anesthesia.

  20. Characterizing Scintillator Response with Neutron Time-of-Flight

    Palmisano, Kevin; Visca, Hannah; Caves, Louis; Wilkinson, Corey; McClow, Hannah; Padalino, Stephen; Forrest, Chad; Katz, Joe; Sangster, Craig; Regan, Sean

    2017-10-01

    Neutron scintillator diagnostics for ICF can be characterized using the neutron time-of-flight (nTOF) line on Geneseo's 1.7 MV Tandem Pelletron Accelerator. Neutron signals can be differentiated from gamma signals by employing a coincidence method called the associated particle technique (APT). In this measurement, a 2.1 MeV beam of deuterons incident on a deuterated polyethylene target produces neutrons via the d(d,n)3He reaction. A BC-412 plastic scintillator, placed at a scattering angle of 152º, detects 1.76 MeV neutrons in coincidence with the 2.56 MeV 3He ions at an associated angle of 10º. The APT is used to identify the 1.76 MeV neutron while the nTOF line determines its energy. By gating only mono-energetic neutrons, the instrument response function of the scintillator can be determined free from background scattered neutrons and gamma rays. Funded in part by a Grant from the DOE, through the Laboratory for Laser Energetics.

  1. Real-time Responsiveness for Ethics Oversight During Disaster Research.

    Eckenwiler, Lisa; Pringle, John; Boulanger, Renaud; Hunt, Matthew

    2015-11-01

    Disaster research has grown in scope and frequency. Research in the wake of disasters and during humanitarian crises--particularly in resource-poor settings--is likely to raise profound and unique ethical challenges for local communities, crisis responders, researchers, and research ethics committees (RECs). Given the ethical challenges, many have questioned how best to provide research ethics review and oversight. We contribute to the conversation concerning how best to ensure appropriate ethical oversight in disaster research and argue that ethical disaster research requires of researchers and RECs a particular sort of ongoing, critical engagement which may not be warranted in less exceptional research. We present two cases that typify the concerns disaster researchers and RECs may confront, and elaborate upon what this ongoing engagement might look like--how it might be conceptualized and utilized--using the concept of real-time responsiveness (RTR). The central aim of RTR, understood here as both an ethical ideal and practice, is to lessen the potential for research conducted in the wake of disasters to create, perpetuate, or exacerbate vulnerabilities and contribute to injustices suffered by disaster-affected populations. Well cultivated and deployed, we believe that RTR may enhance the moral capacities of researchers and REC members, and RECs as institutions where moral agency is nurtured and sustained. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  2. The Role of a PMI-Prediction Model in Evaluating Forensic Entomology Experimental Design, the Importance of Covariates, and the Utility of Response Variables for Estimating Time Since Death

    Jeffrey Wells

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available The most common forensic entomological application is the estimation of some portion of the time since death, or postmortem interval (PMI. To our knowledge, a PMI estimate is almost never accompanied by an associated probability. Statistical methods are now available for calculating confidence limits for an insect-based prediction of PMI for both succession and development data. In addition to it now being possible to employ these approaches in validation experiments and casework, it is also now possible to use the criterion of prediction performance to guide training experiments, i.e., to modify carrion insect development or succession experiment design in ways likely to improve the performance of PMI predictions using the resulting data. In this paper, we provide examples, derived from our research program on calculating PMI estimate probabilities, of how training data experiment design can influence the performance of a statistical model for PMI prediction.

  3. A probabilistic model for US nuclear power construction times

    Shash, A.A.H.

    1988-01-01

    Construction time for nuclear power plants is an important element in planning for resources to meet future load demands. Analysis of actual versus estimated construction times for past US nuclear power plants indicates that utilities have continuously underestimated their power plants' construction durations. The analysis also indicates that the actual average construction time has been increasing upward, and the actual durations of power plants permitted to construct in the same year varied substantially. This study presents two probabilistic models for nuclear power construction time for use by the nuclear industry as estimating tool. The study also presents a detailed explanation of the factors that are responsible for increasing and varying nuclear power construction times. Observations on 91 complete nuclear units were involved in three interdependent analyses in the process of explanation and derivation of the probabilistic models. The historical data was first utilized in the data envelopment analysis (DEA) for the purpose of obtaining frontier index measures for project management achievement in building nuclear power plants

  4. A Two Time-scale response of the Southern Ocean to the Ozone Hole: Regional Responses and Mechanisms

    Gnanadesikan, A.; Seviour, W.; Waugh, D.; Pradal, M. A. S.

    2016-12-01

    The impact of changing ozone on the climate of the Southern Ocean is evaluated using an ensemble of coupled climate models. By imposing a step change from 1860 to 2000 conditions we are able to estimate response functions associated with this change. Two time scales are found, an initial cooling centered in the Southwest Pacific followed by cooling in the Pacific sector and then warming in both sectors. The physical processes that drive this response are different across time periods and locations, as is the sign of the response itself. Initial cooling in the Pacific sector is not just driven by the increased winds pushing cold water northward, but also by a decrease in surface salinity reducing wintertime mixing and increased ice and clouds reflecting more shortwave radiation back to space. The decrease in salinity is primarily driven by a southward shift of precipitation associated with a shifting storm track, coupled with decreased evaporation associated with colder surface temperatures. A subsurface increase in heat associated with this reduction in mixing then upwells along the Antarctic coast, producing a subsequent warming. Similar changes in convective activity occur in the Weddell Sea but are offset in time.

  5. Turbine modelling for real time simulators

    Oliveira Barroso, A.C. de; Araujo Filho, F. de

    1992-01-01

    A model for vapor turbines and its peripherals has been developed. All the important variables have been included and emphasis has been given for the computational efficiency to obtain a model able to simulate all the modeled equipment. (A.C.A.S.)

  6. Outcome Prediction in Mathematical Models of Immune Response to Infection.

    Manuel Mai

    Full Text Available Clinicians need to predict patient outcomes with high accuracy as early as possible after disease inception. In this manuscript, we show that patient-to-patient variability sets a fundamental limit on outcome prediction accuracy for a general class of mathematical models for the immune response to infection. However, accuracy can be increased at the expense of delayed prognosis. We investigate several systems of ordinary differential equations (ODEs that model the host immune response to a pathogen load. Advantages of systems of ODEs for investigating the immune response to infection include the ability to collect data on large numbers of 'virtual patients', each with a given set of model parameters, and obtain many time points during the course of the infection. We implement patient-to-patient variability v in the ODE models by randomly selecting the model parameters from distributions with coefficients of variation v that are centered on physiological values. We use logistic regression with one-versus-all classification to predict the discrete steady-state outcomes of the system. We find that the prediction algorithm achieves near 100% accuracy for v = 0, and the accuracy decreases with increasing v for all ODE models studied. The fact that multiple steady-state outcomes can be obtained for a given initial condition, i.e. the basins of attraction overlap in the space of initial conditions, limits the prediction accuracy for v > 0. Increasing the elapsed time of the variables used to train and test the classifier, increases the prediction accuracy, while adding explicit external noise to the ODE models decreases the prediction accuracy. Our results quantify the competition between early prognosis and high prediction accuracy that is frequently encountered by clinicians.

  7. Time Analysis of Building Dynamic Response Under Seismic Action. Part 1: Theoretical Propositions

    Ufimtcev, E. M.

    2017-11-01

    The first part of the article presents the main provisions of the analytical approach - the time analysis method (TAM) developed for the calculation of the elastic dynamic response of rod structures as discrete dissipative systems (DDS) and based on the investigation of the characteristic matrix quadratic equation. The assumptions adopted in the construction of the mathematical model of structural oscillations as well as the features of seismic forces’ calculating and recording based on the data of earthquake accelerograms are given. A system to resolve equations is given to determine the nodal (kinematic and force) response parameters as well as the stress-strain state (SSS) parameters of the system’s rods.

  8. A Mathematical Model of Cardiovascular Response to Dynamic Exercise

    Magosso, E

    2001-01-01

    A mathematical model of cardiovascular response to dynamic exercise is presented, The model includes the pulsating heart, the systemic and pulmonary, circulation, a functional description of muscle...

  9. Using response-time constraints in item selection to control for differential speededness in computerized adaptive testing

    van der Linden, Willem J.; Scrams, David J.; Schnipke, Deborah L.

    2003-01-01

    This paper proposes an item selection algorithm that can be used to neutralize the effect of time limits in computer adaptive testing. The method is based on a statistical model for the response-time distributions of the test takers on the items in the pool that is updated each time a new item has

  10. Time series sightability modeling of animal populations.

    ArchMiller, Althea A; Dorazio, Robert M; St Clair, Katherine; Fieberg, John R

    2018-01-01

    Logistic regression models-or "sightability models"-fit to detection/non-detection data from marked individuals are often used to adjust for visibility bias in later detection-only surveys, with population abundance estimated using a modified Horvitz-Thompson (mHT) estimator. More recently, a model-based alternative for analyzing combined detection/non-detection and detection-only data was developed. This approach seemed promising, since it resulted in similar estimates as the mHT when applied to data from moose (Alces alces) surveys in Minnesota. More importantly, it provided a framework for developing flexible models for analyzing multiyear detection-only survey data in combination with detection/non-detection data. During initial attempts to extend the model-based approach to multiple years of detection-only data, we found that estimates of detection probabilities and population abundance were sensitive to the amount of detection-only data included in the combined (detection/non-detection and detection-only) analysis. Subsequently, we developed a robust hierarchical modeling approach where sightability model parameters are informed only by the detection/non-detection data, and we used this approach to fit a fixed-effects model (FE model) with year-specific parameters and a temporally-smoothed model (TS model) that shares information across years via random effects and a temporal spline. The abundance estimates from the TS model were more precise, with decreased interannual variability relative to the FE model and mHT abundance estimates, illustrating the potential benefits from model-based approaches that allow information to be shared across years.

  11. Enhanced Interrupt Response Time in the nMPRA based on Embedded Real Time Microcontrollers

    GAITAN, N. C.

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available In any real-time operating system, task switching and scheduling, interrupts, synchronization and communication between processes, represent major problems. The implementation of these mechanisms through software generates significant delays for many applications. The nMPRA (Multi Pipeline Register Architecture architecture is designed for the implementation of real-time embedded microcontrollers. It supports the competitive execution of n tasks, enabling very fast switching between them, with a usual delay of one machine cycle and a maximum of 3 machine cycles, for the memory-related work instructions. This is because each task has its own PC (Program Counter, set of pipeline registers and a general registers file. The nMPRA is provided with an advanced distributed interrupt controller that implements the concept of "interrupts as threads". This allows the attachment of one or more interrupts to the same task. In this context, the original contribution of this article is to presents the solutions for improving the response time to interrupts when a task has attached a large number of interrupts. The proposed solutions enhance the original architecture for interrupts logic in order to transfer control, to the interrupt handler as soon as possible, and to create an interrupt prioritization at task level.

  12. Mathematical models of tumour and normal tissue response

    Jones, B.; Dale, R.G.; Charing Cross Group of Hospitals, London

    1999-01-01

    The historical application of mathematics in the natural sciences and in radiotherapy is compared. The various forms of mathematical models and their limitations are discussed. The Linear Quadratic (LQ) model can be modified to include (i) radiobiological parameter changes that occur during fractionated radiotherapy, (ii) situations such as focal forms of radiotherapy, (iii) normal tissue responses, and (iv) to allow for the process of optimization. The inclusion of a variable cell loss factor in the LQ model repopulation term produces a more flexible clonogenic doubling time, which can simulate the phenomenon of 'accelerated repopulation'. Differential calculus can be applied to the LQ model after elimination of the fraction number integers. The optimum dose per fraction (maximum cell kill relative to a given normal tissue fractionation sensitivity) is then estimated from the clonogen doubling times and the radiosensitivity parameters (or α/β ratios). Economic treatment optimization is described. Tumour volume studies during or following teletherapy are used to optimize brachytherapy. The radiation responses of both individual tumours and tumour populations (by random sampling 'Monte-Carlo' techniques from statistical ranges of radiobiological and physical parameters) can be estimated. Computerized preclinical trials can be used to guide choice of dose fractionation scheduling in clinical trials. The potential impact of gene and other biological therapies on the results of radical radiotherapy are testable. New and experimentally testable hypotheses are generated from limited clinical data by exploratory modelling exercises. (orig.)

  13. Time series modelling of overflow structures

    Carstensen, J.; Harremoës, P.

    1997-01-01

    The dynamics of a storage pipe is examined using a grey-box model based on on-line measured data. The grey-box modelling approach uses a combination of physically-based and empirical terms in the model formulation. The model provides an on-line state estimate of the overflows, pumping capacities...... and available storage capacity in the pipe as well as predictions of future states. A linear overflow relation is found, differing significantly from the traditional modelling approach. This is due to complicated overflow structures in a hydraulic sense where the overflow is governed by inertia from the inflow...... to the overflow structures. The capacity of a pump draining the storage pipe has been estimated for two rain events, revealing that the pump was malfunctioning during the first rain event. The grey-box modelling approach is applicable for automated on-line surveillance and control. (C) 1997 IAWQ. Published...

  14. The problem with time in mixed continuous/discrete time modelling

    Rovers, K.C.; Kuper, Jan; Smit, Gerardus Johannes Maria

    The design of cyber-physical systems requires the use of mixed continuous time and discrete time models. Current modelling tools have problems with time transformations (such as a time delay) or multi-rate systems. We will present a novel approach that implements signals as functions of time,

  15. Time series sightability modeling of animal populations

    ArchMiller, Althea A.; Dorazio, Robert; St. Clair, Katherine; Fieberg, John R.

    2018-01-01

    Logistic regression models—or “sightability models”—fit to detection/non-detection data from marked individuals are often used to adjust for visibility bias in later detection-only surveys, with population abundance estimated using a modified Horvitz-Thompson (mHT) estimator. More recently, a model-based alternative for analyzing combined detection/non-detection and detection-only data was developed. This approach seemed promising, since it resulted in similar estimates as the mHT when applied to data from moose (Alces alces) surveys in Minnesota. More importantly, it provided a framework for developing flexible models for analyzing multiyear detection-only survey data in combination with detection/non-detection data. During initial attempts to extend the model-based approach to multiple years of detection-only data, we found that estimates of detection probabilities and population abundance were sensitive to the amount of detection-only data included in the combined (detection/non-detection and detection-only) analysis. Subsequently, we developed a robust hierarchical modeling approach where sightability model parameters are informed only by the detection/non-detection data, and we used this approach to fit a fixed-effects model (FE model) with year-specific parameters and a temporally-smoothed model (TS model) that shares information across years via random effects and a temporal spline. The abundance estimates from the TS model were more precise, with decreased interannual variability relative to the FE model and mHT abundance estimates, illustrating the potential benefits from model-based approaches that allow information to be shared across years.

  16. TIDALLY HEATED TERRESTRIAL EXOPLANETS: VISCOELASTIC RESPONSE MODELS

    Henning, Wade G.; O'Connell, Richard J.; Sasselov, Dimitar D.

    2009-01-01

    Tidal friction in exoplanet systems, driven by orbits that allow for durable nonzero eccentricities at short heliocentric periods, can generate internal heating far in excess of the conditions observed in our own solar system. Secular perturbations or a notional 2:1 resonance between a hot Earth and hot Jupiter can be used as a baseline to consider the thermal evolution of convecting bodies subject to strong viscoelastic tidal heating. We compare results first from simple models using a fixed Quality factor and Love number, and then for three different viscoelastic rheologies: the Maxwell body, the Standard Anelastic Solid (SAS), and the Burgers body. The SAS and Burgers models are shown to alter the potential for extreme tidal heating by introducing the possibility of new equilibria and multiple response peaks. We find that tidal heating tends to exceed radionuclide heating at periods below 10-30 days, and exceed insolation only below 1-2 days. Extreme cases produce enough tidal heat to initiate global-scale partial melting, and an analysis of tidal limiting mechanisms such as advective cooling for earthlike planets is discussed. To explore long-term behaviors, we map equilibria points between convective heat loss and tidal heat input as functions of eccentricity. For the periods and magnitudes discussed, we show that tidal heating, if significant, is generally detrimental to the width of habitable zones.

  17. Time-dependent nonequilibrium soft x-ray response during a spin crossover

    van Veenendaal, Michel

    2018-03-01

    A theoretical framework is developed for better understanding the time-dependent soft-x-ray response of dissipative quantum many-body systems. It is shown how x-ray absorption and resonant inelastic x-ray scattering (RIXS) at transition-metal L edges can provide insight into ultrafast intersystem crossings of importance for energy conversion, ultrafast magnetism, and catalysis. The photoinduced doublet-to-quartet spin crossover on cobalt in Fe-Co Prussian blue analogs is used as a model system to demonstrate how the x-ray response is affected by the nonequilibrium dynamics on a femtosecond time scale. Changes in local spin and symmetry and the underlying mechanism are reflected in strong broadenings, a collapse of clear selection rules during the intersystem crossing, fluctuations in the isotropic branching ratio in x-ray absorption, crystal-field collapse and/or oscillations, and time-dependent anti-Stokes processes in RIXS.

  18. Neural Network Models for Time Series Forecasts

    Tim Hill; Marcus O'Connor; William Remus

    1996-01-01

    Neural networks have been advocated as an alternative to traditional statistical forecasting methods. In the present experiment, time series forecasts produced by neural networks are compared with forecasts from six statistical time series methods generated in a major forecasting competition (Makridakis et al. [Makridakis, S., A. Anderson, R. Carbone, R. Fildes, M. Hibon, R. Lewandowski, J. Newton, E. Parzen, R. Winkler. 1982. The accuracy of extrapolation (time series) methods: Results of a ...

  19. Equilibrium and response properties of the integrate-and-fire neuron in discrete time

    Moritz Helias

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The integrate-and-fire neuron with exponential postsynaptic potentials is a frequently employed model to study neural networks. Simulations in discrete time still have highest performance at moderate numerical errors, which makes them first choice for long-term simulations of plastic networks. Here we extend the population density approach to investigate how the equilibrium and response properties of the leaky integrate-and-fire neuron are affected by time discretization. We present a novel analytical treatment of the boundary condition at threshold, taking both discretization of time and finite synaptic weights into account. We uncover an increased membrane potential density just below threshold as the decisive property that explains the deviations found between simulations and the classical diffusion approximation. Temporal discretization and finite synaptic weights both contribute to this effect. Our treatment improves the standard formula to calculate the neuron’s equilibrium firing rate. Direct solution of the Markov process describing the evolution of the membrane potential density confirms our analysis and yields a method to calculate the firing rate exactly. Knowing the shape of the membrane potential distribution near threshold enables us to devise the transient response properties of the neuron model to synaptic input. We find a pronounced non-linear fast response component that has not been described by the prevailing continuous time theory for Gaussian white noise input.

  20. Time to refine key climate policy models

    Barron, Alexander R.

    2018-05-01

    Ambition regarding climate change at the national level is critical but is often calibrated with the projected costs — as estimated by a small suite of energy-economic models. Weaknesses in several key areas in these models will continue to distort policy design unless collectively addressed by a diversity of researchers.

  1. Transcriptomic responses of European flounder (Platichthys flesus) to model toxicants

    Williams, Tim D. [School of Biosciences, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham B15 2TT (United Kingdom)], E-mail: t.d.williams@bham.ac.uk; Diab, Amer [Institute of Aquaculture, University of Stirling, Stirling, Scotland FK9 4LA (United Kingdom); Ortega, Fernando [School of Biosciences, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham B15 2TT (United Kingdom); Sabine, Victoria S. [Institute of Aquaculture, University of Stirling, Stirling, Scotland FK9 4LA (United Kingdom); Godfrey, Rita E.; Falciani, Francesco; Chipman, J. Kevin [School of Biosciences, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham B15 2TT (United Kingdom); George, Stephen G. [Institute of Aquaculture, University of Stirling, Stirling, Scotland FK9 4LA (United Kingdom)

    2008-11-11

    The temporal transcriptomic responses in liver of Platichthys flesus to model environmental pollutants were studied over a 16-day time span after intraperitoneal injection with cadmium chloride (50 {mu}g/kg in saline), 3-methylcholanthrene (25 mg/kg in olive oil), Aroclor 1254 (50 mg/kg in olive oil), tert-butyl-hydroperoxide (5 mg/kg in saline), Lindane (25 mg/kg in olive oil), perfluoro-octanoic acid (100 mg/kg in olive oil) and their vehicles, olive oil (1 ml/kg) or saline (0.9%). Statistical, gene ontology and supervised analysis clearly demonstrated the progression from acute effects, biological responses to and recovery from the treatments. Key biological processes disturbed by the individual treatments were characterised by gene ontology analyses and individual toxicant-responsive genes and pathways were identified by supervised analyses. Responses to the polyaromatic and chlorinated aromatic compounds showed a degree of commonality but were distinguishable and they were clearly segregated from the responses to the pro-oxidants cadmium and the organic hydroperoxide, as well as from the peroxisomal proliferator, perfluoro-octanoic acid. This study demonstrated the utility of the microarray technique in the identification of toxicant-responsive genes and in discrimination between modes of toxicant action.

  2. Transcriptomic responses of European flounder (Platichthys flesus) to model toxicants

    Williams, Tim D.; Diab, Amer; Ortega, Fernando; Sabine, Victoria S.; Godfrey, Rita E.; Falciani, Francesco; Chipman, J. Kevin; George, Stephen G.

    2008-01-01

    The temporal transcriptomic responses in liver of Platichthys flesus to model environmental pollutants were studied over a 16-day time span after intraperitoneal injection with cadmium chloride (50 μg/kg in saline), 3-methylcholanthrene (25 mg/kg in olive oil), Aroclor 1254 (50 mg/kg in olive oil), tert-butyl-hydroperoxide (5 mg/kg in saline), Lindane (25 mg/kg in olive oil), perfluoro-octanoic acid (100 mg/kg in olive oil) and their vehicles, olive oil (1 ml/kg) or saline (0.9%). Statistical, gene ontology and supervised analysis clearly demonstrated the progression from acute effects, biological responses to and recovery from the treatments. Key biological processes disturbed by the individual treatments were characterised by gene ontology analyses and individual toxicant-responsive genes and pathways were identified by supervised analyses. Responses to the polyaromatic and chlorinated aromatic compounds showed a degree of commonality but were distinguishable and they were clearly segregated from the responses to the pro-oxidants cadmium and the organic hydroperoxide, as well as from the peroxisomal proliferator, perfluoro-octanoic acid. This study demonstrated the utility of the microarray technique in the identification of toxicant-responsive genes and in discrimination between modes of toxicant action

  3. Evaluation of time integration methods for transient response analysis of nonlinear structures

    Park, K.C.

    1975-01-01

    Recent developments in the evaluation of direct time integration methods for the transient response analysis of nonlinear structures are presented. These developments, which are based on local stability considerations of an integrator, show that the interaction between temporal step size and nonlinearities of structural systems has a pronounced effect on both accuracy and stability of a given time integration method. The resulting evaluation technique is applied to a model nonlinear problem, in order to: 1) demonstrate that it eliminates the present costly process of evaluating time integrator for nonlinear structural systems via extensive numerical experiments; 2) identify the desirable characteristics of time integration methods for nonlinear structural problems; 3) develop improved stiffly-stable methods for application to nonlinear structures. Extension of the methodology for examination of the interaction between a time integrator and the approximate treatment of nonlinearities (such as due to pseudo-force or incremental solution procedures) is also discussed. (Auth.)

  4. A Simple Network Architecture Accounts for Diverse Reward Time Responses in Primary Visual Cortex.

    Huertas, Marco A; Hussain Shuler, Marshall G; Shouval, Harel Z

    2015-09-16

    Many actions performed by animals and humans depend on an ability to learn, estimate, and produce temporal intervals of behavioral relevance. Exemplifying such learning of cued expectancies is the observation of reward-timing activity in the primary visual cortex (V1) of rodents, wherein neural responses to visual cues come to predict the time of future reward as behaviorally experienced in the past. These reward-timing responses exhibit significant heterogeneity in at least three qualitatively distinct classes: sustained increase or sustained decrease in firing rate until the time of expected reward, and a class of cells that reach a peak in firing at the expected delay. We elaborate upon our existing model by including inhibitory and excitatory units while imposing simple connectivity rules to demonstrate what role these inhibitory elements and the simple architectures play in sculpting the response dynamics of the network. We find that simply adding inhibition is not sufficient for obtaining the different distinct response classes, and that a broad distribution of inhibitory projections is necessary for obtaining peak-type responses. Furthermore, although changes in connection strength that modulate the effects of inhibition onto excitatory units have a strong impact on the firing rate profile of these peaked responses, the network exhibits robustness in its overall ability to predict the expected time of reward. Finally, we demonstrate how the magnitude of expected reward can be encoded at the expected delay in the network and how peaked responses express this reward expectancy. Heterogeneity in single-neuron responses is a common feature of neuronal systems, although sometimes, in theoretical approaches, it is treated as a nuisance and seldom considered as conveying a different aspect of a signal. In this study, we focus on the heterogeneous responses in the primary visual cortex of rodents trained with a predictable delayed reward time. We describe under what

  5. Modeling optical and UV polarization of AGNs. IV. Polarization timing

    Rojas Lobos, P. A.; Goosmann, R. W.; Marin, F.; Savić, D.

    2018-03-01

    Context. Optical observations cannot resolve the structure of active galactic nuclei (AGN), and a unified model for AGN was inferred mostly from indirect methods, such as spectroscopy and variability studies. Optical reverberation mapping allowed us to constrain the spatial dimension of the broad emission line region and thereby to measure the mass of supermassive black holes. Recently, reverberation was also applied to the polarized signal emerging from different AGN components. In principle, this should allow us to measure the spatial dimensions of the sub-parsec reprocessing media. Aim. We conduct numerical modeling of polarization reverberation and provide theoretical predictions for the polarization time lag induced by different AGN components. The model parameters are adjusted to the observational appearance of the Seyfert 1 galaxy NGC 4151. Methods: We modeled scattering-induced polarization and tested different geometries for the circumnuclear dust component. Our tests included the effects of clumpiness and different dust prescriptions. To further extend the model, we also explored the effects of additional ionized winds stretched along the polar direction, and of an equatorial scattering ring that is responsible for the polarization angle observed in pole-on AGN. The simulations were run using a time-dependent version of the STOKES code. Results: Our modeling confirms the previously found polarization characteristics as a function of the observer`s viewing angle. When the dust adopts a flared-disk geometry, the lags reveal a clear difference between type 1 and type 2 AGN. This distinction is less clear for a torus geometry where the time lag is more sensitive to the geometry and optical depth of the inner surface layers of the funnel. The presence of a scattering equatorial ring and ionized outflows increased the recorded polarization time lags, and the polar outflows smooths out dependence on viewing angle, especially for the higher optical depth of the

  6. Dose-Response of Sodium Bicarbonate Ingestion Highlights Individuality in Time Course of Blood Analyte Responses.

    Jones, Rebecca Louise; Stellingwerff, Trent; Artioli, Guilherme Giannini; Saunders, Bryan; Cooper, Simon; Sale, Craig

    2016-10-01

    To defend against hydrogen cation accumulation and muscle fatigue during exercise, sodium bicarbonate (NaHCO 3 ) ingestion is commonplace. The individualized dose-response relationship between NaHCO 3 ingestion and blood biochemistry is unclear. The present study investigated the bicarbonate, pH, base excess and sodium responses to NaHCO 3 ingestion. Sixteen healthy males (23 ± 2 years; 78.6 ± 15.1 kg) attended three randomized order-balanced, nonblinded sessions, ingesting a single dose of either 0.1, 0.2 or 0.3 g·kg -1 BM of NaHCO 3 (Intralabs, UK). Fingertip capillary blood was obtained at baseline and every 10 min for 1 hr, then every 15 min for a further 2 hr. There was a significant main effect of both time and condition for all assessed blood analytes (p ≤ .001). Blood analyte responses were significantly lower following 0.1 g·kg -1 BM compared with 0.2 g·kg -1 BM; bicarbonate concentrations and base excess were highest following ingestion of 0.3 g·kg -1 BM (p ≤ .01). Bicarbonate concentrations and pH significantly increased from baseline following all doses; the higher the dose the greater the increase. Large interindividual variability was shown in the magnitude of the increase in bicarbonate concentrations following each dose (+2.0-5; +5.1-8.1; and +6.0-12.3 mmol·L -1 for 0.1, 0.2 and 0.3 g·kg -1 BM) and in the range of time to peak concentrations (30-150; 40-165; and 75-180 min for 0.1, 0.2 and 0.3 g·kg -1 BM). The variability in bicarbonate responses was not affected by normalization to body mass. These results challenge current practices relating to NaHCO 3 supplementation and clearly show the need for athletes to individualize their ingestion protocol and trial varying dosages before competition.

  7. Time-of-use based electricity demand response for sustainable manufacturing systems

    Wang, Yong; Li, Lin

    2013-01-01

    As required by the Energy Policy Act of 2005, utility companies across the U.S. are offering TOU (time-of-use) based electricity demand response programs. The TOU rate gives consumers opportunities to manage their electricity bill by shifting use from on-peak periods to mid-peak and off-peak periods. Reducing the amount of electricity needed during the peak load times makes it possible for the power grid to meet consumers' needs without building more costly backup infrastructures and help reduce GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions. Previous research on the applications of TOU and other electricity demand response programs has been mainly focused on residential and commercial buildings while largely neglected industrial manufacturing systems. This paper proposes a systems approach for TOU based electricity demand response for sustainable manufacturing systems under the production target constraint. Key features of this approach include: (i) the electricity related costs including both consumption and demand are integrated into production system modeling; (ii) energy-efficient and demand-responsive production scheduling problems are formulated and the solution technique is provided; and (iii) the effects of various factors on the near-optimal scheduling solutions are examined. The research outcome is expected to enhance the energy efficiency, electricity demand responsiveness, and cost effectiveness of modern manufacturing systems. - Highlights: • We propose a TOU based demand response approach for manufacturing systems. • Both electricity consumption and demand are integrated into the system modeling. • Energy-efficient and demand-responsive production scheduling problems are formulated. • The meta-heuristic solution technique is provided. • The effects of various factors on the scheduling solutions are examined

  8. Real time natural object modeling framework

    Rana, H.A.; Shamsuddin, S.M.; Sunar, M.H.

    2008-01-01

    CG (Computer Graphics) is a key technology for producing visual contents. Currently computer generated imagery techniques are being developed and applied, particularly in the field of virtual reality applications, film production, training and flight simulators, to provide total composition of realistic computer graphic images. Natural objects like clouds are an integral feature of the sky without them synthetic outdoor scenes seem unrealistic. Modeling and animating such objects is a difficult task. Most systems are difficult to use, as they require adjustment of numerous, complex parameters and are non-interactive. This paper presents an intuitive, interactive system to artistically model, animate, and render visually convincing clouds using modern graphics hardware. A high-level interface models clouds through the visual use of cubes. Clouds are rendered by making use of hardware accelerated API -OpenGL. The resulting interactive design and rendering system produces perceptually convincing cloud models that can be used in any interactive system. (author)

  9. Foundation for a Time Interval Access Control Model

    Afinidad, Francis B; Levin, Timothy E; Irvine, Cynthia E; Nguyen, Thuy D

    2005-01-01

    A new model for representing temporal access control policies is introduced. In this model, temporal authorizations are represented by time attributes associated with both subjects and objects, and a time interval access graph...

  10. Real-time Trading Strategies for Proactive Distribution Company with Distributed Generation and Demand Response

    Wang, Qi

    Distributed energy resources (DERs), such as distributed generation (DG) and demand response (DR), have been recognized worldwide as valuable resources. High integration of DG and DR in the distribution network inspires a potential deregulated environment for the distribution company (DISCO...... in the presented DL market and transact with TL real-time market. A one-leader multi-follower-type bi-level model is proposed to indicate the PDISCO's trading strategies. To participate in the TL real-time market, a methodology is presented to derive continuous bidding/offering strategies for a PDISCO. A bi...

  11. Continuous Time Structural Equation Modeling with R Package ctsem

    Charles C. Driver

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available We introduce ctsem, an R package for continuous time structural equation modeling of panel (N > 1 and time series (N = 1 data, using full information maximum likelihood. Most dynamic models (e.g., cross-lagged panel models in the social and behavioural sciences are discrete time models. An assumption of discrete time models is that time intervals between measurements are equal, and that all subjects were assessed at the same intervals. Violations of this assumption are often ignored due to the difficulty of accounting for varying time intervals, therefore parameter estimates can be biased and the time course of effects becomes ambiguous. By using stochastic differential equations to estimate an underlying continuous process, continuous time models allow for any pattern of measurement occasions. By interfacing to OpenMx, ctsem combines the flexible specification of structural equation models with the enhanced data gathering opportunities and improved estimation of continuous time models. ctsem can estimate relationships over time for multiple latent processes, measured by multiple noisy indicators with varying time intervals between observations. Within and between effects are estimated simultaneously by modeling both observed covariates and unobserved heterogeneity. Exogenous shocks with different shapes, group differences, higher order diffusion effects and oscillating processes can all be simply modeled. We first introduce and define continuous time models, then show how to specify and estimate a range of continuous time models using ctsem.

  12. Adaptive Modeling and Real-Time Simulation

    1984-01-01

    34 Artificial Inteligence , Vol. 13, pp. 27-39 (1980). Describes circumscription which is just the assumption that everything that is known to have a particular... Artificial Intelligence Truth Maintenance Planning Resolution Modeling Wcrld Models ~ .. ~2.. ASSTR AT (Coninue n evrse sieIf necesaran Identfy by...represents a marriage of (1) the procedural-network st, planning technology developed in artificial intelligence with (2) the PERT/CPM technology developed in

  13. Parsimonious Hydrologic and Nitrate Response Models For Silver Springs, Florida

    Klammler, Harald; Yaquian-Luna, Jose Antonio; Jawitz, James W.; Annable, Michael D.; Hatfield, Kirk

    2014-05-01

    Silver Springs with an approximate discharge of 25 m3/sec is one of Florida's first magnitude springs and among the largest springs worldwide. Its 2500-km2 springshed overlies the mostly unconfined Upper Floridan Aquifer. The aquifer is approximately 100 m thick and predominantly consists of porous, fractured and cavernous limestone, which leads to excellent surface drainage properties (no major stream network other than Silver Springs run) and complex groundwater flow patterns through both rock matrix and fast conduits. Over the past few decades, discharge from Silver Springs has been observed to slowly but continuously decline, while nitrate concentrations in the spring water have enormously increased from a background level of 0.05 mg/l to over 1 mg/l. In combination with concurrent increases in algae growth and turbidity, for example, and despite an otherwise relatively stable water quality, this has given rise to concerns about the ecological equilibrium in and near the spring run as well as possible impacts on tourism. The purpose of the present work is to elaborate parsimonious lumped parameter models that may be used by resource managers for evaluating the springshed's hydrologic and nitrate transport responses. Instead of attempting to explicitly consider the complex hydrogeologic features of the aquifer in a typically numerical and / or stochastic approach, we use a transfer function approach wherein input signals (i.e., time series of groundwater recharge and nitrate loading) are transformed into output signals (i.e., time series of spring discharge and spring nitrate concentrations) by some linear and time-invariant law. The dynamic response types and parameters are inferred from comparing input and output time series in frequency domain (e.g., after Fourier transformation). Results are converted into impulse (or step) response functions, which describe at what time and to what magnitude a unitary change in input manifests at the output. For the

  14. Efficient 3D frequency response modeling with spectral accuracy by the rapid expansion method

    Chu, Chunlei

    2012-07-01

    Frequency responses of seismic wave propagation can be obtained either by directly solving the frequency domain wave equations or by transforming the time domain wavefields using the Fourier transform. The former approach requires solving systems of linear equations, which becomes progressively difficult to tackle for larger scale models and for higher frequency components. On the contrary, the latter approach can be efficiently implemented using explicit time integration methods in conjunction with running summations as the computation progresses. Commonly used explicit time integration methods correspond to the truncated Taylor series approximations that can cause significant errors for large time steps. The rapid expansion method (REM) uses the Chebyshev expansion and offers an optimal solution to the second-order-in-time wave equations. When applying the Fourier transform to the time domain wavefield solution computed by the REM, we can derive a frequency response modeling formula that has the same form as the original time domain REM equation but with different summation coefficients. In particular, the summation coefficients for the frequency response modeling formula corresponds to the Fourier transform of those for the time domain modeling equation. As a result, we can directly compute frequency responses from the Chebyshev expansion polynomials rather than the time domain wavefield snapshots as do other time domain frequency response modeling methods. When combined with the pseudospectral method in space, this new frequency response modeling method can produce spectrally accurate results with high efficiency. © 2012 Society of Exploration Geophysicists.

  15. Example of emergency response model evaluation of studies using the Mathew/Adpic models

    Dickerson, M.H.; Lange, R.

    1986-04-01

    This report summarizes model evaluation studies conducted for the MATHEW/ADPIC transport and diffusion models during the past ten years. These models support the US Department of Energy Atmospheric Release Advisory Capability, an emergency response service for atmospheric releases of nuclear material. Field studies involving tracer releases used in these studies cover a broad range of meteorology, terrain and tracer release heights, the three most important aspects of estimating air concentration values resulting from airborne releases of toxic material. Results of these studies show that these models can estimate air concentration values within a factor of 2 20% to 50% of the time and a factor of 5 40% to 80% of the time. As the meterology and terrain become more complex and the release height of the tracer is increased, the accuracy of the model calculations degrades. This band of uncertainty appears to correctly represent the capability of these models at this time. A method for estimating angular uncertainty in the model calculations is described and used to suggest alternative methods for evaluating emergency response models

  16. An Analysis of Variance Approach for the Estimation of Response Time Distributions in Tests

    Attali, Yigal

    2010-01-01

    Generalizability theory and analysis of variance methods are employed, together with the concept of objective time pressure, to estimate response time distributions and the degree of time pressure in timed tests. By estimating response time variance components due to person, item, and their interaction, and fixed effects due to item types and…

  17. Real-Time Vocal Tract Modelling

    K. Benkrid

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available To date, most speech synthesis techniques have relied upon the representation of the vocal tract by some form of filter, a typical example being linear predictive coding (LPC. This paper describes the development of a physiologically realistic model of the vocal tract using the well-established technique of transmission line modelling (TLM. This technique is based on the principle of wave scattering at transmission line segment boundaries and may be used in one, two, or three dimensions. This work uses this technique to model the vocal tract using a one-dimensional transmission line. A six-port scattering node is applied in the region separating the pharyngeal, oral, and the nasal parts of the vocal tract.

  18. A situation-response model for intelligent pilot aiding

    Schudy, Robert; Corker, Kevin

    1987-01-01

    An intelligent pilot aiding system needs models of the pilot information processing to provide the computational basis for successful cooperation between the pilot and the aiding system. By combining artificial intelligence concepts with the human information processing model of Rasmussen, an abstraction hierarchy of states of knowledge, processing functions, and shortcuts are developed, which is useful for characterizing the information processing both of the pilot and of the aiding system. This approach is used in the conceptual design of a real time intelligent aiding system for flight crews of transport aircraft. One promising result was the tentative identification of a particular class of information processing shortcuts, from situation characterizations to appropriate responses, as the most important reliable pathway for dealing with complex time critical situations.

  19. Tracer travel time and model validation

    Tsang, Chin-Fu.

    1988-01-01

    The performance assessment of a nuclear waste repository demands much more in comparison to the safety evaluation of any civil constructions such as dams, or the resource evaluation of a petroleum or geothermal reservoir. It involves the estimation of low probability (low concentration) of radionuclide transport extrapolated 1000's of years into the future. Thus models used to make these estimates need to be carefully validated. A number of recent efforts have been devoted to the study of this problem. Some general comments on model validation were given by Tsang. The present paper discusses some issues of validation in regards to radionuclide transport. 5 refs

  20. Synthetic LISA: Simulating time delay interferometry in a model LISA

    Vallisneri, Michele

    2005-01-01

    We report on three numerical experiments on the implementation of Time-Delay Interferometry (TDI) for LISA, performed with Synthetic LISA, a C++/Python package that we developed to simulate the LISA science process at the level of scientific and technical requirements. Specifically, we study the laser-noise residuals left by first-generation TDI when the LISA armlengths have a realistic time dependence; we characterize the armlength-measurement accuracies that are needed to have effective laser-noise cancellation in both first- and second-generation TDI; and we estimate the quantization and telemetry bitdepth needed for the phase measurements. Synthetic LISA generates synthetic time series of the LISA fundamental noises, as filtered through all the TDI observables; it also provides a streamlined module to compute the TDI responses to gravitational waves according to a full model of TDI, including the motion of the LISA array and the temporal and directional dependence of the armlengths. We discuss the theoretical model that underlies the simulation, its implementation, and its use in future investigations on system-characterization and data-analysis prototyping for LISA

  1. Axiomatics of uniform space-time models

    Levichev, A.V.

    1983-01-01

    The mathematical statement of space-time axiomatics of the special theory of relativity is given; it postulates that the space-time M is the binding single boundary Hausedorf local-compact four-dimensional topological space with the given order. The theorem is proved: if the invariant order in the four-dimensional group M is given by the semi-group P, which contingency K contains inner points , then M is commutative. The analogous theorem is correct for the group of two and three dimensionalities

  2. Can Previewing Sport-Specific Video Influence Reactive-Agility Response Time?

    Holding, Ryan; Meir, Rudi; Zhou, Shi

    2017-02-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine whether a video-based warm-up could provide an acute performance benefit to response time for athletes in a sport-specific agility task. In addition, 2 learning strategies, explicit and implicit, were compared for their effectiveness in facilitating an improvement in sport-specific agility. Thirty representative male junior rugby union players (age 14-16 y, mean age 14.6 ± 1.09 y) were placed in 3 experimental groups (explicit, implicit, and control) and completed 2 intervention sessions. Testing sessions included preintervention testing, completion of the video-based warm-up intervention, and postintervention testing. A 3D motion-analysis system was used to assess response time in the testing battery. The athletes' response times on the pre- to postintervention tests were compared to determine the effectiveness of the video-based warm-up. A 2-way general linear model with repeated-measures analysis indicated that both the explicit (P = .030, d = 0.28) and implicit (P = .049, d = 0.33) groups significantly improved their response time by the intervention compared with the control group (P = .367, d = 0.08). The mean postintervention response time for the explicit group improved by 19.1% (from 0.246 s pre to 0.199 s post), and the implicit group improved by 15.7% (from 0.268 s to 0.226 s). Findings suggest that a video-based warm-up may provide an acute benefit to sport-specific agility performance for junior athletes.

  3. Analytical solution for beam with time-dependent boundary conditions versus response spectrum

    Gou, P.F.; Panahi, K.K.

    2001-01-01

    This paper studies the responses of a uniform simple beam for which the supports are subjected to time-dependent conditions. Analytical solution in terms of series was presented for two cases: (1) Two supports of a simple beam are subjected to a harmonic motion, and (2) One of the two supports is stationary while the other is subjected to a harmonic motion. The results of the analytical solution were investigated and compared with the results of conventional response spectrum method using the beam finite element model. One of the applications of the results presented in this paper can be used to assess the adequacy and accuracy of the engineering approaches such as response spectra methods. It has been found that, when the excitation frequency equals the fundamental frequency of the beam, the results from response spectrum method are in good agreement with the exact calculation. The effects of initial conditions on the responses are also examined. It seems that the non-zero initial velocity has pronounced effects on the displacement time histories but it has no effect on the maximum accelerations. (author)

  4. Detection of advance item knowledge using response times in computer adaptive testing

    Meijer, R.R.; Sotaridona, Leonardo

    2006-01-01

    We propose a new method for detecting item preknowledge in a CAT based on an estimate of “effective response time” for each item. Effective response time is defined as the time required for an individual examinee to answer an item correctly. An unusually short response time relative to the expected

  5. Validation of a simple response-time measure of listening effort

    Pals, Carina; Sarampalis, Anastasios; van Rijn, Hedderik; Başkent, Deniz

    This study compares two response-time measures of listening effort that can be combined with a clinical speech test for a more comprehensive evaluation of total listening experience; verbal response times to auditory stimuli (RTaud) and response times to a visual task (RTsvis) in a dual- task

  6. A continuous-time control model on production planning network ...

    A continuous-time control model on production planning network. DEA Omorogbe, MIU Okunsebor. Abstract. In this paper, we give a slightly detailed review of Graves and Hollywood model on constant inventory tactical planning model for a job shop. The limitations of this model are pointed out and a continuous time ...

  7. Continuous time modeling of panel data by means of SEM

    Oud, J.H.L.; Delsing, M.J.M.H.; Montfort, C.A.G.M.; Oud, J.H.L.; Satorra, A.

    2010-01-01

    After a brief history of continuous time modeling and its implementation in panel analysis by means of structural equation modeling (SEM), the problems of discrete time modeling are discussed in detail. This is done by means of the popular cross-lagged panel design. Next, the exact discrete model

  8. Structural Equation Modeling of Multivariate Time Series

    du Toit, Stephen H. C.; Browne, Michael W.

    2007-01-01

    The covariance structure of a vector autoregressive process with moving average residuals (VARMA) is derived. It differs from other available expressions for the covariance function of a stationary VARMA process and is compatible with current structural equation methodology. Structural equation modeling programs, such as LISREL, may therefore be…

  9. Predictive modeling without notion of time

    Hoogendoorn, Mark; Funk, Burkhardt

    2018-01-01

    Supervised learning approaches that do not explicitly take the time component into account are briefly discussed in this chapter. The approaches explained include feedforward neural networks, support vector machines, k-nearest neighbor, decision trees, naïve bayes and ensembles. Guidelines are

  10. Numerical time integration for air pollution models

    J.G. Verwer (Jan); W. Hundsdorfer (Willem); J.G. Blom (Joke)

    1998-01-01

    textabstractDue to the large number of chemical species and the three space dimensions, off-the-shelf stiff ODE integrators are not feasible for the numerical time integration of stiff systems of advection-diffusion-reaction equations [ fracpar{c{t + nabla cdot left( vu{u c right) = nabla cdot left(

  11. Modeling Time Series Data for Supervised Learning

    Baydogan, Mustafa Gokce

    2012-01-01

    Temporal data are increasingly prevalent and important in analytics. Time series (TS) data are chronological sequences of observations and an important class of temporal data. Fields such as medicine, finance, learning science and multimedia naturally generate TS data. Each series provide a high-dimensional data vector that challenges the learning…

  12. Some hybrid models applicable to dose-response relationships

    Kumazawa, Shigeru

    1992-01-01

    A new type of models of dose-response relationships has been studied as an initial stage to explore a reliable extrapolation of the relationships decided by high dose data to the range of low dose covered by radiation protection. The approach is to use a 'hybrid scale' of linear and logarithmic scales; the first model is that the normalized surviving fraction (ρ S > 0) in a hybrid scale decreases linearly with dose in a linear scale, and the second is that the induction in a log scale increases linearly with the normalized dose (τ D > 0) in a hybrid scale. The hybrid scale may reflect an overall effectiveness of a complex system against adverse events caused by various agents. Some data of leukemia in the atomic bomb survivors and of rodent experiments were used to show the applicability of hybrid scale models. The results proved that proposed models fit these data not less than the popular linear-quadratic models, providing the possible interpretation of shapes of dose-response curves, e.g. shouldered survival curves varied by recovery time. (author)

  13. Estimating Derived Response Levels at the Savannah River Site for Use with Emergency Response Models

    Simpkins, A.A.

    2002-01-01

    Emergency response computer models at the Savannah River Site (SRS) are coupled with real-time meteorological data to estimate dose to individuals downwind of accidental radioactive releases. Currently, these models estimate doses for inhalation and shine pathways, but do not consider dose due to ingestion of contaminated food products. The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has developed derived intervention levels (DIL) which refer to the radionuclide-specific concentration in food present throughout the relevant period of time, with no intervention, that could lead to an individual receiving a radiation dose equal to the protective action guide. In the event of an emergency, concentrations in various food types are compared with these levels to make interdictions decisions. Prior to monitoring results being available, concentrations in the environmental media (i.e. soil), called derived response levels (DRLs), can be estimated from the DILs and directly compared with computer output to provide preliminary guidance as to whether intervention is necessary. Site-specific derived response levels (DRLs) are developed for ingestion pathways pertinent to SRS: milk, meat, fish, grain, produce, and beverage. This provides decision-makers with an additional tool for use immediately following an accident prior to the acquisition of food monitoring data

  14. Time-varying parameter models for catchments with land use change: the importance of model structure

    Pathiraja, Sahani; Anghileri, Daniela; Burlando, Paolo; Sharma, Ashish; Marshall, Lucy; Moradkhani, Hamid

    2018-05-01

    Rapid population and economic growth in Southeast Asia has been accompanied by extensive land use change with consequent impacts on catchment hydrology. Modeling methodologies capable of handling changing land use conditions are therefore becoming ever more important and are receiving increasing attention from hydrologists. A recently developed data-assimilation-based framework that allows model parameters to vary through time in response to signals of change in observations is considered for a medium-sized catchment (2880 km2) in northern Vietnam experiencing substantial but gradual land cover change. We investigate the efficacy of the method as well as the importance of the chosen model structure in ensuring the success of a time-varying parameter method. The method was used with two lumped daily conceptual models (HBV and HyMOD) that gave good-quality streamflow predictions during pre-change conditions. Although both time-varying parameter models gave improved streamflow predictions under changed conditions compared to the time-invariant parameter model, persistent biases for low flows were apparent in the HyMOD case. It was found that HyMOD was not suited to representing the modified baseflow conditions, resulting in extreme and unrealistic time-varying parameter estimates. This work shows that the chosen model can be critical for ensuring the time-varying parameter framework successfully models streamflow under changing land cover conditions. It can also be used to determine whether land cover changes (and not just meteorological factors) contribute to the observed hydrologic changes in retrospective studies where the lack of a paired control catchment precludes such an assessment.

  15. Time-varying parameter models for catchments with land use change: the importance of model structure

    S. Pathiraja

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Rapid population and economic growth in Southeast Asia has been accompanied by extensive land use change with consequent impacts on catchment hydrology. Modeling methodologies capable of handling changing land use conditions are therefore becoming ever more important and are receiving increasing attention from hydrologists. A recently developed data-assimilation-based framework that allows model parameters to vary through time in response to signals of change in observations is considered for a medium-sized catchment (2880 km2 in northern Vietnam experiencing substantial but gradual land cover change. We investigate the efficacy of the method as well as the importance of the chosen model structure in ensuring the success of a time-varying parameter method. The method was used with two lumped daily conceptual models (HBV and HyMOD that gave good-quality streamflow predictions during pre-change conditions. Although both time-varying parameter models gave improved streamflow predictions under changed conditions compared to the time-invariant parameter model, persistent biases for low flows were apparent in the HyMOD case. It was found that HyMOD was not suited to representing the modified baseflow conditions, resulting in extreme and unrealistic time-varying parameter estimates. This work shows that the chosen model can be critical for ensuring the time-varying parameter framework successfully models streamflow under changing land cover conditions. It can also be used to determine whether land cover changes (and not just meteorological factors contribute to the observed hydrologic changes in retrospective studies where the lack of a paired control catchment precludes such an assessment.

  16. The genomic response of Ishikawa cells to bisphenol A exposure is dose- and time-dependent

    Naciff, Jorge M.; Khambatta, Zubin S.; Reichling, Timothy D.; Carr, Gregory J.; Tiesman, Jay P.; Singleton, David W.; Khan, Sohaib A.; Daston, George P.

    2010-01-01

    A reliable in vitro model to determine the potential estrogenic activity of chemicals of interest is still unavailable. To further investigate the usefulness of a human-derived cell line, we determined the transcriptional changes induced by bisphenol A (BPA) in Ishikawa cells at various doses (1 nM, 100 nM, 10 μM, and 100 μM) and time points (8, 24 and 48 h) by comparing the response of approximately 38,500 human genes and ESTs between treatment groups and controls (vehicle-treated). By trend analysis, we determined that the expression of 2794 genes was modified by BPA in a dose- and time-dependent manner (p ≤ 0.0001). However, the majority of gene expression changes induced in Ishikawa cells were elicited by the highest doses of BPA evaluated (10-100 μM), while the genomic response of the cells exposed to low doses of BPA was essentially negligible. By comparing the Ishikawa cells' response to BPA vs.17α-ethynyl estradiol we determined that the change in the expression of 307 genes was identical in the direction of the change, although the magnitude of the change for some genes was different. Further, the response of Ishikawa cells to high doses of BPA shared similarities to the estrogenic response of the rat uterus, specifically, 362 genes were regulated in a similar manner in vivo as well as in vitro. Gene ontology analysis indicated that BPA results in changes to multiple molecular pathways affecting various biological processes particularly associated with cell organization and biogenesis, regulation of translation, cell proliferation, and intracellular transport; processes also affected by estrogen exposure in the uterus of the rat. These results indicate that Ishikawa cells are capable of generating a biologically relevant estrogenic response after exposure to chemicals with varied estrogenic activity, and offer an in vitro model to assess this mode of action.

  17. Time-dependent Networks as Models to Achieve Fast Exact Time-table Queries

    Brodal, Gerth Stølting; Jacob, Rico

    2001-01-01

    We consider efficient algorithms for exact time-table queries, i.e. algorithms that find optimal itineraries. We propose to use time-dependent networks as a model and show advantages of this approach over space-time networks as models.......We consider efficient algorithms for exact time-table queries, i.e. algorithms that find optimal itineraries. We propose to use time-dependent networks as a model and show advantages of this approach over space-time networks as models....

  18. Time-Dependent Networks as Models to Achieve Fast Exact Time-Table Queries

    Brodal, Gert Stølting; Jacob, Rico

    2003-01-01

    We consider efficient algorithms for exact time-table queries, i.e. algorithms that find optimal itineraries for travelers using a train system. We propose to use time-dependent networks as a model and show advantages of this approach over space-time networks as models.......We consider efficient algorithms for exact time-table queries, i.e. algorithms that find optimal itineraries for travelers using a train system. We propose to use time-dependent networks as a model and show advantages of this approach over space-time networks as models....

  19. Accelerometer-measured dose-response for physical activity, sedentary time, and mortality in US adults

    Matthews, Charles E; Keadle, S. K.; Troiano, Richard P

    2016-01-01

    Background: Moderate-to-vigorous-intensity physical activity is recommended to maintain and improve health, but the mortality benefits of light activity and risk for sedentary time remain uncertain. Objectives: Using accelerometer-based measures, we 1) described the mortality dose-response...... for sedentary time and light-and moderateto-vigorous-intensity activity using restricted cubic splines, and 2) estimated the mortality benefits associated with replacing sedentary time with physical activity, accounting for total activity. Design: US adults (n = 4840) from NHANES (2003-2006) wore...... an accelerometer for #7 d and were followed prospectively for mortality. Proportional hazards models were used to estimate adjusted HRs and 95% CIs for mortality associations with time spent sedentary and in light-and moderate-to-vigorous-intensity physical activity. Splines were used to graphically present...

  20. Planck 2013 results. VII. HFI time response and beams

    Planck Collaboration,; Ade, P. A. R.; Aghanim, N.

    2013-01-01

    This paper characterizes the effective beams, the effective beam window functions (EBWF) and the associated errors for the Planck High Frequency Instrument (HFI) detectors. The effective beam is the angular response including the effect of the optics, detectors, data processing and the scan strat...

  1. Timely Response and Containment of 2016 Cholera Outbreak in ...

    medical, environmental and laboratory staff from district to provincial level was assembled to investigate and manage the outbreak. The district rapid response team was prepared to conduct an Epidemiological investigation of the sudden increase of diarrheal cases and logistics were put aside for the first 20 patients. Case.

  2. Utilizing Response Time Distributions for Item Selection in CAT

    Fan, Zhewen; Wang, Chun; Chang, Hua-Hua; Douglas, Jeffrey

    2012-01-01

    Traditional methods for item selection in computerized adaptive testing only focus on item information without taking into consideration the time required to answer an item. As a result, some examinees may receive a set of items that take a very long time to finish, and information is not accrued as efficiently as possible. The authors propose two…

  3. Food supply and demand, a simulation model of the functional response of grazing ruminants

    Smallegange, I.M.; Brunsting, A.M.H.

    2002-01-01

    A dynamic model of the functional response is a first prerequisite to be able to bridge the gap between local feeding ecology and grazing rules that pertain to larger scales. A mechanistic model is presented that simulates the functional response, growth and grazing time of ruminants. It is based on

  4. Time-aggregation effects on the baseline of continuous-time and discrete-time hazard models

    ter Hofstede, F.; Wedel, M.

    In this study we reinvestigate the effect of time-aggregation for discrete- and continuous-time hazard models. We reanalyze the results of a previous Monte Carlo study by ter Hofstede and Wedel (1998), in which the effects of time-aggregation on the parameter estimates of hazard models were

  5. Measurement of response time and detection of degradation in pressure sensor/sensing-line systems

    Buchanan, M.E.; Miller, L.F.; Kerlin, T.W.; Ragan, G.; March-Leuba, J.; Thie, J.A.

    1985-01-01

    A team evaluated several methods for remote measurement of the response time and detection of degradation (blockage or air in lines) of pressure sensor/sensing line systems typical of nuclear power plants. A method was developed for obtaining the response time of force-balance pressure transmitters by briefly interrupting the power supply to the transmitter. The data thus generated are then analyzed in conjunction with a model to predict transmitter response to an actual pressure perturbation. The research team also evaluated a pressure perturbation method for determining the asymptotic delay time of a pressure-sensing line and found that this method yields accurate results for essentially unblocked sensing lines. However, these pressure perturbation tests are not recommended for use in nuclear power plants because they are difficult to implement on-line. A third method for remote measurement applied noise analysis method that yielded accurate estimates of asymptotic delay times for blockage or air in sensing lines. Even though noise analysis methods worked well in the laboratory, it is recommended that further evaluation be performed in operating nuclear plants. (orig.)

  6. Measurement of response time and detection of degradation in pressure sensor/sensing line systems

    Buchanan, M.E.; Miller, L.F.; Thie, J.A.; Kerlin, T.W.; Ragan, G.E.; March-Leuba, J.

    1985-09-01

    A team evaluated several methods for remote measurement of the response time and detection of degradation (blockage or air in lines) of pressure sensor/sensing line systems typical of nuclear power plants. A method was developed for obtaining the response time of force-balance pressure transmitters by briefly interrupting the power supply to the transmitter. The data thus generated are then analyzed in conjunction with a model to predict transmitter response to an actual pressure perturbation. The research team also evaluated a pressure perturbation method for determining the asymptotic delay time of a pressure-sensing line and found that this method yields accurate results for essentially unblocked sensing lines. However, these pressure perturbation tests are not recommended for use in nuclear power plants because they are difficult to implement on-line. A third method for remote measurement applied noise analysis methods that yielded accurate estimates of asymptotic delay times for blockage or air in sensing lines. Even though noise analysis methods worked well in the laboratory, it is recommended that further evaluation be performed in operating nuclear plants

  7. Sensitivity analysis of machine-learning models of hydrologic time series

    O'Reilly, A. M.

    2017-12-01

    Sensitivity analysis traditionally has been applied to assessing model response to perturbations in model parameters, where the parameters are those model input variables adjusted during calibration. Unlike physics-based models where parameters represent real phenomena, the equivalent of parameters for machine-learning models are simply mathematical "knobs" that are automatically adjusted during training/testing/verification procedures. Thus the challenge of extracting knowledge of hydrologic system functionality from machine-learning models lies in their very nature, leading to the label "black box." Sensitivity analysis of the forcing-response behavior of machine-learning models, however, can provide understanding of how the physical phenomena represented by model inputs affect the physical phenomena represented by model outputs.As part of a previous study, hybrid spectral-decomposition artificial neural network (ANN) models were developed to simulate the observed behavior of hydrologic response contained in multidecadal datasets of lake water level, groundwater level, and spring flow. Model inputs used moving window averages (MWA) to represent various frequencies and frequency-band components of time series of rainfall and groundwater use. Using these forcing time series, the MWA-ANN models were trained to predict time series of lake water level, groundwater level, and spring flow at 51 sites in central Florida, USA. A time series of sensitivities for each MWA-ANN model was produced by perturbing forcing time-series and computing the change in response time-series per unit change in perturbation. Variations in forcing-response sensitivities are evident between types (lake, groundwater level, or spring), spatially (among sites of the same type), and temporally. Two generally common characteristics among sites are more uniform sensitivities to rainfall over time and notable increases in sensitivities to groundwater usage during significant drought periods.

  8. Conditional Dependence between Response Time and Accuracy: An Overview of its Possible Sources and Directions for Distinguishing between Them

    Bolsinova, Maria; Tijmstra, Jesper; Molenaar, Dylan; De Boeck, Paul

    2017-01-01

    With the widespread use of computerized tests in educational measurement and cognitive psychology, registration of response times has become feasible in many applications. Considering these response times helps provide a more complete picture of the performance and characteristics of persons beyond what is available based on response accuracy alone. Statistical models such as the hierarchical model (van der Linden, 2007) have been proposed that jointly model response time and accuracy. However, these models make restrictive assumptions about the response processes (RPs) that may not be realistic in practice, such as the assumption that the association between response time and accuracy is fully explained by taking speed and ability into account (conditional independence). Assuming conditional independence forces one to ignore that many relevant individual differences may play a role in the RPs beyond overall speed and ability. In this paper, we critically consider the assumption of conditional independence and the important ways in which it may be violated in practice from a substantive perspective. We consider both conditional dependences that may arise when all persons attempt to solve the items in similar ways (homogeneous RPs) and those that may be due to persons differing in fundamental ways in how they deal with the items (heterogeneous processes). The paper provides an overview of what we can learn from observed conditional dependences. We argue that explaining and modeling these differences in the RPs is crucial to increase both the validity of measurement and our understanding of the relevant RPs. PMID:28261136

  9. Modelling road accidents: An approach using structural time series

    Junus, Noor Wahida Md; Ismail, Mohd Tahir

    2014-09-01

    In this paper, the trend of road accidents in Malaysia for the years 2001 until 2012 was modelled using a structural time series approach. The structural time series model was identified using a stepwise method, and the residuals for each model were tested. The best-fitted model was chosen based on the smallest Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and prediction error variance. In order to check the quality of the model, a data validation procedure was performed by predicting the monthly number of road accidents for the year 2012. Results indicate that the best specification of the structural time series model to represent road accidents is the local level with a seasonal model.

  10. Real time damage detection using recursive principal components and time varying auto-regressive modeling

    Krishnan, M.; Bhowmik, B.; Hazra, B.; Pakrashi, V.

    2018-02-01

    In this paper, a novel baseline free approach for continuous online damage detection of multi degree of freedom vibrating structures using Recursive Principal Component Analysis (RPCA) in conjunction with Time Varying Auto-Regressive Modeling (TVAR) is proposed. In this method, the acceleration data is used to obtain recursive proper orthogonal components online using rank-one perturbation method, followed by TVAR modeling of the first transformed response, to detect the change in the dynamic behavior of the vibrating system from its pristine state to contiguous linear/non-linear-states that indicate damage. Most of the works available in the literature deal with algorithms that require windowing of the gathered data owing to their data-driven nature which renders them ineffective for online implementation. Algorithms focussed on mathematically consistent recursive techniques in a rigorous theoretical framework of structural damage detection is missing, which motivates the development of the present framework that is amenable for online implementation which could be utilized along with suite experimental and numerical investigations. The RPCA algorithm iterates the eigenvector and eigenvalue estimates for sample covariance matrices and new data point at each successive time instants, using the rank-one perturbation method. TVAR modeling on the principal component explaining maximum variance is utilized and the damage is identified by tracking the TVAR coefficients. This eliminates the need for offline post processing and facilitates online damage detection especially when applied to streaming data without requiring any baseline data. Numerical simulations performed on a 5-dof nonlinear system under white noise excitation and El Centro (also known as 1940 Imperial Valley earthquake) excitation, for different damage scenarios, demonstrate the robustness of the proposed algorithm. The method is further validated on results obtained from case studies involving

  11. With string model to time series forecasting

    Pinčák, Richard; Bartoš, Erik

    2015-10-01

    Overwhelming majority of econometric models applied on a long term basis in the financial forex market do not work sufficiently well. The reason is that transaction costs and arbitrage opportunity are not included, as this does not simulate the real financial markets. Analyses are not conducted on the non equidistant date but rather on the aggregate date, which is also not a real financial case. In this paper, we would like to show a new way how to analyze and, moreover, forecast financial market. We utilize the projections of the real exchange rate dynamics onto the string-like topology in the OANDA market. The latter approach allows us to build the stable prediction models in trading in the financial forex market. The real application of the multi-string structures is provided to demonstrate our ideas for the solution of the problem of the robust portfolio selection. The comparison with the trend following strategies was performed, the stability of the algorithm on the transaction costs for long trade periods was confirmed.

  12. Foundations of Sequence-to-Sequence Modeling for Time Series

    Kuznetsov, Vitaly; Mariet, Zelda

    2018-01-01

    The availability of large amounts of time series data, paired with the performance of deep-learning algorithms on a broad class of problems, has recently led to significant interest in the use of sequence-to-sequence models for time series forecasting. We provide the first theoretical analysis of this time series forecasting framework. We include a comparison of sequence-to-sequence modeling to classical time series models, and as such our theory can serve as a quantitative guide for practiti...

  13. Real-time earthquake monitoring: Early warning and rapid response

    1991-01-01

    A panel was established to investigate the subject of real-time earthquake monitoring (RTEM) and suggest recommendations on the feasibility of using a real-time earthquake warning system to mitigate earthquake damage in regions of the United States. The findings of the investigation and the related recommendations are described in this report. A brief review of existing real-time seismic systems is presented with particular emphasis given to the current California seismic networks. Specific applications of a real-time monitoring system are discussed along with issues related to system deployment and technical feasibility. In addition, several non-technical considerations are addressed including cost-benefit analysis, public perceptions, safety, and liability.

  14. Discrete Emotion Effects on Lexical Decision Response Times

    Briesemeister, Benny B.; Kuchinke, Lars; Jacobs, Arthur M.

    2018-01-01

    Our knowledge about affective processes, especially concerning effects on cognitive demands like word processing, is increasing steadily. Several studies consistently document valence and arousal effects, and although there is some debate on possible interactions and different notions of valence, broad agreement on a two dimensional model of affective space has been achieved. Alternative models like the discrete emotion theory have received little interest in word recognition research so far....

  15. Time dependent response of equatorial ionospheric electric fieldsto magnetospheric disturbances

    Fejer, Bela G.; Scherliess, L.

    1995-01-01

    We use extensive radar measurements of F region vertical plasma drifts and auroral electrojet indices to determine the storm time dependence of equatorial zonal electric fields. These disturbance drifts result from the prompt penetration of high latitude electric fields and from the dynamo action of storm time winds which produce largest perturbations a few hours after the onset of magnetic activity. The signatures of the equatorial disturbance electric fields change significantly depending o...

  16. A Study of Improving Response Time Verification Method for Pressure Transmitters

    Lee, Jungyang; Ha, Jaehong; Jung, Insoo; Jo, Junghee; Kim, Hangbae

    2007-01-01

    Technical Specifications (TS) of OPR1000 type nuclear power plants in Korea require pressure sensor response time testing (RTT) to ensure sensor performance per assumption in plant safety analyses. However, the need for pressure sensor response time testing is not clear because the nominal sensor response times are in the order of milliseconds while overall loop response time limits being from several seconds to tens of seconds. Additionally, response time testing does not appear to identify response time degradation or failures. Consequently, the need for this testing has been questioned, and a study to determine if response time testing is necessary to justify the assumptions in plant safety analyses in the United States has been conducted and NRC has approved to remove the test requirements for them. A similar study was conducted for OPR1000 type nuclear power plants and the results are presented here

  17. On the Relationship Between Transfer Function-derived Response Times and Hydrograph Analysis Timing Parameters: Are there Similarities?

    Bansah, S.; Ali, G.; Haque, M. A.; Tang, V.

    2017-12-01

    The proportion of precipitation that becomes streamflow is a function of internal catchment characteristics - which include geology, landscape characteristics and vegetation - and influence overall storage dynamics. The timing and quantity of water discharged by a catchment are indeed embedded in event hydrographs. Event hydrograph timing parameters, such as the response lag and time of concentration, are important descriptors of how long it takes the catchment to respond to input precipitation and how long it takes the latter to filter through the catchment. However, the extent to which hydrograph timing parameters relate to average response times derived from fitting transfer functions to annual hydrographs is unknown. In this study, we used a gamma transfer function to determine catchment average response times as well as event-specific hydrograph parameters across a network of eight nested watersheds ranging from 0.19 km2 to 74.6 km2 prairie catchments located in south central Manitoba (Canada). Various statistical analyses were then performed to correlate average response times - estimated using the parameters of the fitted gamma transfer function - to event-specific hydrograph parameters. Preliminary results show significant interannual variations in response times and hydrograph timing parameters: the former were in the order of a few hours to days, while the latter ranged from a few days to weeks. Some statistically significant relationships were detected between response times and event-specific hydrograph parameters. Future analyses will involve the comparison of statistical distributions of event-specific hydrograph parameters with that of runoff response times and baseflow transit times in order to quantity catchment storage dynamics across a range of temporal scales.

  18. Response Modelling of Bitumen, Bituminous Mastic and Mortar

    Woldekidan, M.F.

    2011-01-01

    This research focuses on testing and modelling the viscoelastic response of bituminous binders. The main goal is to find an appropriate response model for bituminous binders. The desired model should allow implementation into numerical environments such as ABAQUS. On the basis of such numerical

  19. Bayes factor covariance testing in item response models

    Fox, J.P.; Mulder, J.; Sinharay, Sandip

    2017-01-01

    Two marginal one-parameter item response theory models are introduced, by integrating out the latent variable or random item parameter. It is shown that both marginal response models are multivariate (probit) models with a compound symmetry covariance structure. Several common hypotheses concerning

  20. Bayes Factor Covariance Testing in Item Response Models

    Fox, Jean-Paul; Mulder, Joris; Sinharay, Sandip

    2017-01-01

    Two marginal one-parameter item response theory models are introduced, by integrating out the latent variable or random item parameter. It is shown that both marginal response models are multivariate (probit) models with a compound symmetry covariance structure. Several common hypotheses concerning

  1. Quantitative modeling of the ionospheric response to geomagnetic activity

    T. J. Fuller-Rowell

    Full Text Available A physical model of the coupled thermosphere and ionosphere has been used to determine the accuracy of model predictions of the ionospheric response to geomagnetic activity, and assess our understanding of the physical processes. The physical model is driven by empirical descriptions of the high-latitude electric field and auroral precipitation, as measures of the strength of the magnetospheric sources of energy and momentum to the upper atmosphere. Both sources are keyed to the time-dependent TIROS/NOAA auroral power index. The output of the model is the departure of the ionospheric F region from the normal climatological mean. A 50-day interval towards the end of 1997 has been simulated with the model for two cases. The first simulation uses only the electric fields and auroral forcing from the empirical models, and the second has an additional source of random electric field variability. In both cases, output from the physical model is compared with F-region data from ionosonde stations. Quantitative model/data comparisons have been performed to move beyond the conventional "visual" scientific assessment, in order to determine the value of the predictions for operational use. For this study, the ionosphere at two ionosonde stations has been studied in depth, one each from the northern and southern mid-latitudes. The model clearly captures the seasonal dependence in the ionospheric response to geomagnetic activity at mid-latitude, reproducing the tendency for decreased ion density in the summer hemisphere and increased densities in winter. In contrast to the "visual" success of the model, the detailed quantitative comparisons, which are necessary for space weather applications, are less impressive. The accuracy, or value, of the model has been quantified by evaluating the daily standard deviation, the root-mean-square error, and the correlation coefficient between the data and model predictions. The modeled quiet-time variability, or standard

  2. Quantitative modeling of the ionospheric response to geomagnetic activity

    T. J. Fuller-Rowell

    2000-07-01

    Full Text Available A physical model of the coupled thermosphere and ionosphere has been used to determine the accuracy of model predictions of the ionospheric response to geomagnetic activity, and assess our understanding of the physical processes. The physical model is driven by empirical descriptions of the high-latitude electric field and auroral precipitation, as measures of the strength of the magnetospheric sources of energy and momentum to the upper atmosphere. Both sources are keyed to the time-dependent TIROS/NOAA auroral power index. The output of the model is the departure of the ionospheric F region from the normal climatological mean. A 50-day interval towards the end of 1997 has been simulated with the model for two cases. The first simulation uses only the electric fields and auroral forcing from the empirical models, and the second has an additional source of random electric field variability. In both cases, output from the physical model is compared with F-region data from ionosonde stations. Quantitative model/data comparisons have been performed to move beyond the conventional "visual" scientific assessment, in order to determine the value of the predictions for operational use. For this study, the ionosphere at two ionosonde stations has been studied in depth, one each from the northern and southern mid-latitudes. The model clearly captures the seasonal dependence in the ionospheric response to geomagnetic activity at mid-latitude, reproducing the tendency for decreased ion density in the summer hemisphere and increased densities in winter. In contrast to the "visual" success of the model, the detailed quantitative comparisons, which are necessary for space weather applications, are less impressive. The accuracy, or value, of the model has been quantified by evaluating the daily standard deviation, the root-mean-square error, and the correlation coefficient between the data and model predictions. The modeled quiet-time variability, or standard

  3. Multiple Time Series Ising Model for Financial Market Simulations

    Takaishi, Tetsuya

    2015-01-01

    In this paper we propose an Ising model which simulates multiple financial time series. Our model introduces the interaction which couples to spins of other systems. Simulations from our model show that time series exhibit the volatility clustering that is often observed in the real financial markets. Furthermore we also find non-zero cross correlations between the volatilities from our model. Thus our model can simulate stock markets where volatilities of stocks are mutually correlated

  4. Treatment-time-dependence models of early and delayed radiation injury in rat small intestine

    Denham, James W.; Hauer-Jensen, Martin; Kron, Tomas; Langberg, Carl W.

    2000-01-01

    Background: The present study modeled data from a large series of experiments originally designed to investigate the influence of time, dose, and fractionation on early and late pathologic endpoints in rat small intestine after localized irradiation. The objective was to obtain satisfactory descriptions of the regenerative response to injury together with the possible relationships between early and late endpoints. Methods: Two- and 26-week pathologic radiation injury data in groups of Sprague-Dawley rats irradiated with 27 different fractionation schedules were modeled using the incomplete repair (IR) version of the linear-quadratic model with or without various time correction models. The following time correction models were tested: (1) No time correction; (2) A simple exponential (SE) regenerative response beginning at an arbitrary time after starting treatment; and (3) A bi-exponential response with its commencement linked to accumulated cellular depletion and fraction size (the 'intelligent response model' [INTR]). Goodness of fit of the various models was assessed by correlating the predicted biological effective dose for each dose group with the observed radiation injury score. Results: (1) The incomplete repair model without time correction did not provide a satisfactory description of either the 2- or 26-week data. (2) The models using SE time correction performed better, providing modest descriptions of the data. (3) The INTR model provided reasonable descriptions of both the 2- and 26-week data, confirming a treatment time dependence of both early and late pathological endpoints. (4) The most satisfactory descriptions of the data by the INTR model were obtained when the regenerative response was assumed to cease 2 weeks after irradiation rather than at the end of irradiation. A fraction-size-dependent delay of the regenerative response was also suggested in the best fitting models. (5) Late endpoints were associated with low-fractionation sensitivity

  5. An Efficient Explicit-time Description Method for Timed Model Checking

    Hao Wang

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Timed model checking, the method to formally verify real-time systems, is attracting increasing attention from both the model checking community and the real-time community. Explicit-time description methods verify real-time systems using general model constructs found in standard un-timed model checkers. Lamport proposed an explicit-time description method using a clock-ticking process (Tick to simulate the passage of time together with a group of global variables to model time requirements. Two methods, the Sync-based Explicit-time Description Method using rendezvous synchronization steps and the Semaphore-based Explicit-time Description Method using only one global variable were proposed; they both achieve better modularity than Lamport's method in modeling the real-time systems. In contrast to timed automata based model checkers like UPPAAL, explicit-time description methods can access and store the current time instant for future calculations necessary for many real-time systems, especially those with pre-emptive scheduling. However, the Tick process in the above three methods increments the time by one unit in each tick; the state spaces therefore grow relatively fast as the time parameters increase, a problem when the system's time period is relatively long. In this paper, we propose a more efficient method which enables the Tick process to leap multiple time units in one tick. Preliminary experimental results in a high performance computing environment show that this new method significantly reduces the state space and improves both the time and memory efficiency.

  6. A new G-M counter dead time model

    Lee, S.H.; Gardner, R.P.

    2000-01-01

    A hybrid G-M counter dead time model was derived by combining the idealized paralyzable and non-paralyzable models. The new model involves two parameters, which are the paralyzable and non-paralyzable dead times. The dead times used in the model are very closely related to the physical dead time of the G-M tube and its resolving time. To check the validity of the model, the decaying source method with 56 Mn was used. The corrected counting rates by the new G-M dead time model were compared with the observed counting rates obtained from the measurement and gave very good agreement within 5% up to 7x10 4 counts/s for a G-M tube with a dead time of about 300 μs

  7. Controlling response dependence in the measurement of change using the Rasch model.

    Andrich, David

    2017-01-01

    The advantages of using person location estimates from the Rasch model over raw scores for the measurement of change using a common test include the linearization of scores and the automatic handling of statistical properties of repeated measurements. However, the application of the model requires that the responses to the items are statistically independent in the sense that the specific responses to the items on the first time of testing do not affect the responses at a second time. This requirement implies that the responses to the items at both times of assessment are governed only by the invariant location parameters of the items at the two times of testing and the location parameters of each person each time. A specific form of dependence that is pertinent when the same items are used is when the observed response to an item at the second time of testing is affected by the response to the same item at the first time, a form of dependence which has been referred to as response dependence. This paper presents the logic of applying the Rasch model to quantify, control and remove the effect of response dependence in the measurement of change when the same items are used on two occasions. The logic is illustrated with four sets of simulation studies with dichotomous items and with a small example of real data. It is shown that the presence of response dependence can reduce the evidence of change, a reduction which may impact interpretations at the individual, research, and policy levels.

  8. TIME SERIES ANALYSIS USING A UNIQUE MODEL OF TRANSFORMATION

    Goran Klepac

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available REFII1 model is an authorial mathematical model for time series data mining. The main purpose of that model is to automate time series analysis, through a unique transformation model of time series. An advantage of this approach of time series analysis is the linkage of different methods for time series analysis, linking traditional data mining tools in time series, and constructing new algorithms for analyzing time series. It is worth mentioning that REFII model is not a closed system, which means that we have a finite set of methods. At first, this is a model for transformation of values of time series, which prepares data used by different sets of methods based on the same model of transformation in a domain of problem space. REFII model gives a new approach in time series analysis based on a unique model of transformation, which is a base for all kind of time series analysis. The advantage of REFII model is its possible application in many different areas such as finance, medicine, voice recognition, face recognition and text mining.

  9. How can streamflow and climate-landscape data be used to estimate baseflow mean response time?

    Zhang, Runrun; Chen, Xi; Zhang, Zhicai; Soulsby, Chris; Gao, Man

    2018-02-01

    Mean response time (MRT) is a metric describing the propagation of catchment hydraulic behavior that reflects both hydro-climatic conditions and catchment characteristics. To provide a comprehensive understanding of catchment response over a longer-time scale for hydraulic processes, the MRT function for baseflow generation was derived using an instantaneous unit hydrograph (IUH) model that describes the subsurface response to effective rainfall inputs. IUH parameters were estimated based on the "match test" between the autocorrelation function (ACFs) derived from the filtered base flow time series and from the IUH parameters, under the GLUE framework. Regionalization of MRT was conducted using estimates and hydroclimate-landscape indices in 22 sub-basins of the Jinghe River Basin (JRB) in the Loess Plateau of northwest China. Results indicate there is strong equifinality in determination of the best parameter sets but the median values of the MRT estimates are relatively stable in the acceptable range of the parameters. MRTs vary markedly over the studied sub-basins, ranging from tens of days to more than a year. Climate, topography and geomorphology were identified as three first-order controls on recharge-baseflow response processes. Human activities involving the cultivation of permanent crops may elongate the baseflow MRT and hence increase the dynamic storage. Cross validation suggests the model can be used to estimate MRTs in ungauged catchments in similar regions of throughout the Loess Plateau. The proposed method provides a systematic approach for MRT estimation and regionalization in terms of hydroclimate and catchment characteristics, which is helpful in the sustainable water resources utilization and ecological protection in the Loess Plateau.

  10. Modeling dynamic effects of promotion on interpurchase times

    D. Fok (Dennis); R. Paap (Richard); Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans)

    2002-01-01

    textabstractIn this paper we put forward a duration model to analyze the dynamic effects of marketing-mix variables on interpurchase times. We extend the accelerated failure-time model with an autoregressive structure. An important feature of our model is that it allows for different long-run and

  11. A Model for Industrial Real-Time Systems

    Bin Waez, Md Tawhid; Wasowski, Andrzej; Dingel, Juergen

    2015-01-01

    Introducing automated formal methods for large industrial real-time systems is an important research challenge. We propose timed process automata (TPA) for modeling and analysis of time-critical systems which can be open, hierarchical, and dynamic. The model offers two essential features for large...

  12. Travel Time Reliability for Urban Networks : Modelling and Empirics

    Zheng, F.; Liu, Xiaobo; van Zuylen, H.J.; Li, Jie; Lu, Chao

    2017-01-01

    The importance of travel time reliability in traffic management, control, and network design has received a lot of attention in the past decade. In this paper, a network travel time distribution model based on the Johnson curve system is proposed. The model is applied to field travel time data

  13. Negotiating Political Responsibility in Times of National Tragedy

    FlorenţaTOADER

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the way political responsibility is constructed through discourse by Romanian politicians in the Web 2.0 era. Drawing on an analytical framework proposed by Augoustinos, Hastie and Wright (2011, based on discursive psychology, and critical discourse analysis, this paper analyses the Facebook messages released by the main political actors in Romania, after the Colectiv nightclub fire. The empirical endeavour is guided by two research objectives: to analyse the discursive strategies used to create discursive identities, to assign political responsibility and to express solidarity with the victims; and to analyse a specific kind of rhetoric, the political apology, focusing on its pragmatic and linguistic features and on the emotion categories (empathy, sympathy, anger, guilt, sadness deployed to deliver the apology. The results of the study show that when faced with a situation where the offender is hard to define, political actors prefer the use of another speech act: the expression of solidarity and compassion. While the political apology is offered only after and explicit demand, the expression of solidarity is offered promptly and willingly.

  14. Corporate Social Responsibility Agreements Model for Community ...

    Michael

    2016-06-01

    Jun 1, 2016 ... aspect of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR), to the extent that often .... intentions and implemented some community development projects, the .... Environmental Protection Agency, Police and civil society to solicit their ...

  15. Average inactivity time model, associated orderings and reliability properties

    Kayid, M.; Izadkhah, S.; Abouammoh, A. M.

    2018-02-01

    In this paper, we introduce and study a new model called 'average inactivity time model'. This new model is specifically applicable to handle the heterogeneity of the time of the failure of a system in which some inactive items exist. We provide some bounds for the mean average inactivity time of a lifespan unit. In addition, we discuss some dependence structures between the average variable and the mixing variable in the model when original random variable possesses some aging behaviors. Based on the conception of the new model, we introduce and study a new stochastic order. Finally, to illustrate the concept of the model, some interesting reliability problems are reserved.

  16. Characterization of Models for Time-Dependent Behavior of Soils

    Liingaard, Morten; Augustesen, Anders; Lade, Poul V.

    2004-01-01

      Different classes of constitutive models have been developed to capture the time-dependent viscous phenomena ~ creep, stress relaxation, and rate effects ! observed in soils. Models based on empirical, rheological, and general stress-strain-time concepts have been studied. The first part....... Special attention is paid to elastoviscoplastic models that combine inviscid elastic and time-dependent plastic behavior. Various general elastoviscoplastic models can roughly be divided into two categories: Models based on the concept of overstress and models based on nonstationary flow surface theory...

  17. 40 CFR 1601.24 - Timing of responses to requests.

    2010-07-01

    ... an imminent threat to the life or physical safety of an individual; (ii) An urgency to inform the... affect public confidence. (2) A request for expedited processing may be made at the time of the initial... shall notify the requester of the decision. If a request for expedited treatment is granted, the request...

  18. Community Connections. Time Warner Community Responsibility Report, 1998-2000.

    Owens, Jane; Stein, Carol

    This report highlights efforts by Time Warner personnel to strengthen community connections through various programs and services aimed at supporting: education, the arts, volunteerism, diversity, and business-community action. The report is divided into sections focusing on each of these areas. The first section, Education, describes programs…

  19. Multi-Wheat-Model Ensemble Responses to Interannual Climate Variability

    Ruane, Alex C.; Hudson, Nicholas I.; Asseng, Senthold; Camarrano, Davide; Ewert, Frank; Martre, Pierre; Boote, Kenneth J.; Thorburn, Peter J.; Aggarwal, Pramod K.; Angulo, Carlos

    2016-01-01

    We compare 27 wheat models' yield responses to interannual climate variability, analyzed at locations in Argentina, Australia, India, and The Netherlands as part of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Wheat Pilot. Each model simulated 1981e2010 grain yield, and we evaluate results against the interannual variability of growing season temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation. The amount of information used for calibration has only a minor effect on most models' climate response, and even small multi-model ensembles prove beneficial. Wheat model clusters reveal common characteristics of yield response to climate; however models rarely share the same cluster at all four sites indicating substantial independence. Only a weak relationship (R2 0.24) was found between the models' sensitivities to interannual temperature variability and their response to long-termwarming, suggesting that additional processes differentiate climate change impacts from observed climate variability analogs and motivating continuing analysis and model development efforts.

  20. Searching for serial refreshing in working memory: Using response times to track the content of the focus of attention over time.

    Vergauwe, Evie; Hardman, Kyle O; Rouder, Jeffrey N; Roemer, Emily; McAllaster, Sara; Cowan, Nelson

    2016-12-01

    One popular idea is that, to support the maintenance of a set of elements over brief periods of time, the focus of attention rotates among the different elements, thereby serially refreshing the content of working memory (WM). In the research reported here, probe letters were presented between to-be-remembered letters, and response times to these probes were used to infer the status of the different items in WM. If the focus of attention cycles from one item to the next, its content should be different at different points in time, and this should be reflected in a change in the response time patterns over time. Across a set of four experiments, we demonstrated a striking pattern of invariance in the response time patterns over time, suggesting either that the content of the focus of attention did not change over time or that response times cannot be used to infer the content of the focus of attention. We discuss how this pattern constrains models of WM, attention, and human information processing.

  1. A new timing model for calculating the intrinsic timing resolution of a scintillator detector

    Shao Yiping

    2007-01-01

    The coincidence timing resolution is a critical parameter which to a large extent determines the system performance of positron emission tomography (PET). This is particularly true for time-of-flight (TOF) PET that requires an excellent coincidence timing resolution (<<1 ns) in order to significantly improve the image quality. The intrinsic timing resolution is conventionally calculated with a single-exponential timing model that includes two parameters of a scintillator detector: scintillation decay time and total photoelectron yield from the photon-electron conversion. However, this calculation has led to significant errors when the coincidence timing resolution reaches 1 ns or less. In this paper, a bi-exponential timing model is derived and evaluated. The new timing model includes an additional parameter of a scintillator detector: scintillation rise time. The effect of rise time on the timing resolution has been investigated analytically, and the results reveal that the rise time can significantly change the timing resolution of fast scintillators that have short decay time constants. Compared with measured data, the calculations have shown that the new timing model significantly improves the accuracy in the calculation of timing resolutions

  2. A calculation model for a HTR core seismic response

    Buland, P.; Berriaud, C.; Cebe, E.; Livolant, M.

    1975-01-01

    The paper presents the experimental results obtained at Saclay on a HTGR core model and comparisons with analytical results. Two series of horizontal tests have been performed on the shaking table VESUVE: sinusoidal test and time history response. Acceleration of graphite blocks, forces on the boundaries, relative displacement of the core and PCRB model, impact velocity of the blocks on the boundaries were recorded. These tests have shown the strongly non-linear dynamic behaviour of the core. The resonant frequency of the core is dependent on the level of the excitation. These phenomena have been explained by a computer code, which is a lumped mass non-linear model. Good correlation between experimental and analytical results was obtained for impact velocities and forces on the boundaries. This comparison has shown that the damping of the core is a critical parameter for the estimation of forces and velocities. Time history displacement at the level of PCRV was reproduced on the shaking table. The analytical model was applied to this excitation and good agreement was obtained for forces and velocities. (orig./HP) [de

  3. Maize response to time of nitrogen application and planting seasons

    Parbati Adhikari

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Nitrogen (N response by maize differs due to growing seasons, growth stages, duration and growing domain as N losses is higher due to leaching as well as volatilization. Objective of this study was to know the response of split applications of N and growing seasons on maize under Chitwan environments. Field experiments were conducted for two consecutive years at the research field of NMRP Rampur during the winter, spring, and summer seasons of 2012/013 and 2013/014. Experiments were laid out in factorial randomized complete block design with four replications for all the seasons. Early maturing maize genotype Arun-1 EV was used for the experiments. Five splits of recommended dose of N were tested. Grain yield, days to flowering, plant height, ear height, kernel rows per ear, no. of kernels per row, ear length and thousand grain weight significantly differed due to growing seasons and split applications of N. Significantly higher grain yield (3911 kg ha-1 was obtained with the application of 30 kg N ha-1 each at 30, 45, 60, and 75 days after sowing as compared to control (2801 kg ha-1. Regarding the growing seasons, highest grain yield was obtained in winter (4393 kg ha-1 followed by spring (3791 kg ha-1 and summer (2468 kg ha-1 season, respectively. Results of these studies revealed that four splits of N viz. application of 30 kg N each at 30, 45, 60, and 75 days after sowing respectively, would be more economical to minimize N losses from the soil and efficient use of N at critical growth and development stages of maize.

  4. Study of the Time Response of a Simulated Hydroelectric System

    Simani, S; Alvisi, S; Venturini, M

    2014-01-01

    This paper addresses the design of an advanced control strategy for a typical hydroelectric dynamic process, performed in the Matlab and Simulink environments. The hydraulic system consists of a high water head and a long penstock with upstream and downstream surge tanks, and is equipped with a Francis turbine. The nonlinear characteristics of hydraulic turbine and the inelastic water hammer effects were considered to calculate and simulate the hydraulic transients. With reference to the control solution, the proposed methodology relies on an adaptive control designed by means of the on-line identification of the system model under monitoring. Extensive simulations and comparison with respect to a classic hydraulic turbine speed PID regulator show the effectiveness of the proposed modelling and control tools

  5. Study of the Time Response of a Simulated Hydroelectric System

    Simani, S.; Alvisi, S.; Venturini, M.

    2014-12-01

    This paper addresses the design of an advanced control strategy for a typical hydroelectric dynamic process, performed in the Matlab and Simulink environments. The hydraulic system consists of a high water head and a long penstock with upstream and downstream surge tanks, and is equipped with a Francis turbine. The nonlinear characteristics of hydraulic turbine and the inelastic water hammer effects were considered to calculate and simulate the hydraulic transients. With reference to the control solution, the proposed methodology relies on an adaptive control designed by means of the on-line identification of the system model under monitoring. Extensive simulations and comparison with respect to a classic hydraulic turbine speed PID regulator show the effectiveness of the proposed modelling and control tools.

  6. APD Response Time Measurements for Future TOF-E Systems

    Starkey, M. J.; Ogasawara, K.; Dayeh, M. A.; Desai, M. I.

    2017-12-01

    In space physics, the ability to detect ions is crucial to understanding plasma distributions in the solar wind. This usually typically requires the determination of the particle's mass, charge, and total energy. Current ion detection schemes are implemented in three sequential parts; an electrostatic analyzer for energy per charge (E/Q) measurements, a time-of-flight (TOF) for mass per charge (M/Q) measurements, and a solid-state detector (SSD) for total energy (E) measurements. Recent work has suggested the use of avalanche photodiode detectors (APD) for a simultaneous TOF and total energy (TOF-E) measurement system, which would replace traditional SSDs, simplify design, and reduce costs. Although TOF based ion spectrometry typically requires timing resolution of systems.

  7. Sequential double excitations from linear-response time-dependent density functional theory

    Mosquera, Martín A.; Ratner, Mark A.; Schatz, George C., E-mail: g-schatz@northwestern.edu [Department of Chemistry, Northwestern University, 2145 Sheridan Rd., Evanston, Illinois 60208 (United States); Chen, Lin X. [Department of Chemistry, Northwestern University, 2145 Sheridan Rd., Evanston, Illinois 60208 (United States); Chemical Sciences and Engineering Division, Argonne National Laboratory, 9700 South Cass Ave., Lemont, Illinois 60439 (United States)

    2016-05-28

    Traditional UV/vis and X-ray spectroscopies focus mainly on the study of excitations starting exclusively from electronic ground states. However there are many experiments where transitions from excited states, both absorption and emission, are probed. In this work we develop a formalism based on linear-response time-dependent density functional theory to investigate spectroscopic properties of excited states. We apply our model to study the excited-state absorption of a diplatinum(II) complex under X-rays, and transient vis/UV absorption of pyrene and azobenzene.

  8. Predictive display design for the vehicles with time delay in dynamic response

    Efremov, A. V.; Tiaglik, M. S.; Irgaleev, I. H.; Efremov, E. V.

    2018-02-01

    The two ways for the improvement of flying qualities are considered: the predictive display (PD) and the predictive display integrated with the flight control system (FCS). The both ways allow to transforming the controlled element dynamics in the crossover frequency range, to improve the accuracy of tracking and to suppress the effect of time delay in the vehicle response too. The technique for optimization of the predictive law is applied to the landing task. The results of the mathematical modeling and experimental investigations carried out for this task are considered in the paper.

  9. The nitrate response of a lowland catchment and groundwater travel times

    van der Velde, Ype; Rozemeijer, Joachim; de Rooij, Gerrit; van Geer, Frans

    2010-05-01

    Intensive agriculture in lowland catchments causes eutrophication of downstream waters. To determine effective measures to reduce the nutrient loads from upstream lowland catchments, we need to understand the origin of long-term and daily variations in surface water nutrient concentrations. Surface water concentrations are often linked to travel time distributions of water passing through the saturated and unsaturated soil of the contributing catchment. This distribution represents the contact time over which sorption, desorption and degradation takes place. However, travel time distributions are strongly influenced by processes like tube drain flow, overland flow and the dynamics of draining ditches and streams and therefore exhibit strong daily and seasonal variations. The study we will present is situated in the 6.6 km2 Hupsel brook catchment in The Netherlands. In this catchment nitrate and chloride concentrations have been intensively monitored for the past 26 years under steadily decreasing agricultural inputs. We described the complicated dynamics of subsurface water fluxes as streams, ditches and tube drains locally switch between active or passive depending on the ambient groundwater level by a groundwater model with high spatial and temporal resolutions. A transient particle tracking approach is used to derive a unique catchment-scale travel time distribution for each day during the 26 year model period. These transient travel time distributions are not smooth distributions, but distributions that are strongly spiked reflecting the contribution of past rainfall events to the current discharge. We will show that a catchment-scale mass response function approach that only describes catchment-scale mixing and degradation suffices to accurately reproduce observed chloride and nitrate surface water concentrations as long as the mass response functions include the dynamics of travel time distributions caused by the highly variable connectivity of the surface

  10. The time response function of spark counters and RPCs

    Gobbi, A.; Mangiarotti, A.

    2003-01-01

    The fluctuation theory for the avalanche growth with and without space charge effects is briefly summarized and compared to a broad field of applications. These include spark counters as well as timing and trigger RPCs operated in avalanche mode. A large domain in electrical field strength, pressure, gap size and gas mixture type is covered. A reasonable agreement with the experiment is observed, giving confidence on the validity of both assumptions and treatment of the theory

  11. Time-based collision risk modeling for air traffic management

    Bell, Alan E.

    Since the emergence of commercial aviation in the early part of last century, economic forces have driven a steadily increasing demand for air transportation. Increasing density of aircraft operating in a finite volume of airspace is accompanied by a corresponding increase in the risk of collision, and in response to a growing number of incidents and accidents involving collisions between aircraft, governments worldwide have developed air traffic control systems and procedures to mitigate this risk. The objective of any collision risk management system is to project conflicts and provide operators with sufficient opportunity to recognize potential collisions and take necessary actions to avoid them. It is therefore the assertion of this research that the currency of collision risk management is time. Future Air Traffic Management Systems are being designed around the foundational principle of four dimensional trajectory based operations, a method that replaces legacy first-come, first-served sequencing priorities with time-based reservations throughout the airspace system. This research will demonstrate that if aircraft are to be sequenced in four dimensions, they must also be separated in four dimensions. In order to separate aircraft in four dimensions, time must emerge as the primary tool by which air traffic is managed. A functional relationship exists between the time-based performance of aircraft, the interval between aircraft scheduled to cross some three dimensional point in space, and the risk of collision. This research models that relationship and presents two key findings. First, a method is developed by which the ability of an aircraft to meet a required time of arrival may be expressed as a robust standard for both industry and operations. Second, a method by which airspace system capacity may be increased while maintaining an acceptable level of collision risk is presented and demonstrated for the purpose of formulating recommendations for procedures

  12. Discrete Emotion Effects on Lexical Decision Response Times

    Briesemeister, Benny B.; Kuchinke, Lars; Jacobs, Arthur M.

    2011-01-01

    Our knowledge about affective processes, especially concerning effects on cognitive demands like word processing, is increasing steadily. Several studies consistently document valence and arousal effects, and although there is some debate on possible interactions and different notions of valence, broad agreement on a two dimensional model of affective space has been achieved. Alternative models like the discrete emotion theory have received little interest in word recognition research so far. Using backward elimination and multiple regression analyses, we show that five discrete emotions (i.e., happiness, disgust, fear, anger and sadness) explain as much variance as two published dimensional models assuming continuous or categorical valence, with the variables happiness, disgust and fear significantly contributing to this account. Moreover, these effects even persist in an experiment with discrete emotion conditions when the stimuli are controlled for emotional valence and arousal levels. We interpret this result as evidence for discrete emotion effects in visual word recognition that cannot be explained by the two dimensional affective space account. PMID:21887307

  13. Discrete emotion effects on lexical decision response times.

    Briesemeister, Benny B; Kuchinke, Lars; Jacobs, Arthur M

    2011-01-01

    Our knowledge about affective processes, especially concerning effects on cognitive demands like word processing, is increasing steadily. Several studies consistently document valence and arousal effects, and although there is some debate on possible interactions and different notions of valence, broad agreement on a two dimensional model of affective space has been achieved. Alternative models like the discrete emotion theory have received little interest in word recognition research so far. Using backward elimination and multiple regression analyses, we show that five discrete emotions (i.e., happiness, disgust, fear, anger and sadness) explain as much variance as two published dimensional models assuming continuous or categorical valence, with the variables happiness, disgust and fear significantly contributing to this account. Moreover, these effects even persist in an experiment with discrete emotion conditions when the stimuli are controlled for emotional valence and arousal levels. We interpret this result as evidence for discrete emotion effects in visual word recognition that cannot be explained by the two dimensional affective space account.

  14. Discrete emotion effects on lexical decision response times.

    Benny B Briesemeister

    Full Text Available Our knowledge about affective processes, especially concerning effects on cognitive demands like word processing, is increasing steadily. Several studies consistently document valence and arousal effects, and although there is some debate on possible interactions and different notions of valence, broad agreement on a two dimensional model of affective space has been achieved. Alternative models like the discrete emotion theory have received little interest in word recognition research so far. Using backward elimination and multiple regression analyses, we show that five discrete emotions (i.e., happiness, disgust, fear, anger and sadness explain as much variance as two published dimensional models assuming continuous or categorical valence, with the variables happiness, disgust and fear significantly contributing to this account. Moreover, these effects even persist in an experiment with discrete emotion conditions when the stimuli are controlled for emotional valence and arousal levels. We interpret this result as evidence for discrete emotion effects in visual word recognition that cannot be explained by the two dimensional affective space account.

  15. Atmospheric dispersion modeling: Challenges of the Fukushima Daiichi response

    Sugiyama, Gayle [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Nasstrom, John [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Pobanz, Brenda [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Foster, Kevin [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Simpson, Matthew [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Vogt, Phil [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Aluzzi, Fernando [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Homann, Steve [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2012-05-01

    In this research, the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center (NARAC) provided a wide range of predictions and analyses as part of the response to the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident including: daily Japanese weather forecasts and atmospheric transport predictions to inform planning for field monitoring operations and to provide U.S. government agencies with ongoing situational awareness of meteorological conditions; estimates of possible dose in Japan based on hypothetical U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission scenarios of potential radionuclide releases to support protective action planning for U.S. citizens; predictions of possible plume arrival times and dose levels at U.S. locations; and source estimation and plume model refinement based on atmospheric dispersion modeling and available monitoring data.

  16. Time-dependent leaf proteome alterations of Brachypodium distachyon in response to drought stress.

    Tatli, Ozge; Sogutmaz Ozdemir, Bahar; Dinler Doganay, Gizem

    2017-08-01

    For the first time, a comprehensive proteome analysis was conducted on Brachypodium leaves under drought stress. Gradual changes in response to drought stress were monitored. Drought is one of the major stress factors that dramatically affect the agricultural productivity worldwide. Improving the yield under drought is an urgent challenge in agriculture. Brachypodium distachyon is a model species for monocot plants such as wheat, barley and several potential biofuel grasses. In the current study, a comprehensive proteome analysis was conducted on Brachypodium leaves under different levels of drought application. To screen gradual changes upon drought, Brachypodium leaves subjected to drought for 4, 8 and 12 days were collected for each treatment day and relative water content of the leaves was measured for each time point. Cellular responses of Brachypodium were investigated through a proteomic approach involving two dimensional difference gel electrophoresis (2D-DIGE) and mass spectrometry (MS). Among 497 distinct spots in Brachypodium protein repertoire, a total of 13 differentially expressed proteins (DEPs) were identified as responsive to drought by mass spectrometry and classified according to their functions using bioinformatics tools. The biological functions of DEPs included roles in photosynthesis, protein folding, antioxidant mechanism and metabolic processes, which responded differentially at each time point of drought treatment. To examine further transcriptional expression of the genes that code identified protein, quantitative real time PCR (qRT-PCR) was performed. Identified proteins will contribute to the studies involving development of drought-resistant crop species and lead to the delineation of molecular mechanisms in drought response.

  17. Statistical Learning and Adaptive Decision-Making Underlie Human Response Time Variability in Inhibitory Control

    Ning eMa

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Response time (RT is an oft-reported behavioral measure in psychological and neurocognitive experiments, but the high level of observed trial-to-trial variability in this measure has often limited its usefulness. Here, we combine computational modeling and psychophysics to examine the hypothesis that fluctuations in this noisy measure reflect dynamic computations in human statistical learning and corresponding cognitive adjustments. We present data from the stop-signal task, in which subjects respond to a go stimulus on each trial, unless instructed not to by a subsequent, infrequently presented stop signal. We model across-trial learning of stop signal frequency, P(stop, and stop-signal onset time, SSD (stop-signal delay, with a Bayesian hidden Markov model, and within-trial decision-making with an optimal stochastic control model. The combined model predicts that RT should increase with both expected P(stop and SSD. The human behavioral data (n=20 bear out this prediction, showing P(stop and SSD both to be significant, independent predictors of RT, with P(stop being a more prominent predictor in 75% of the subjects, and SSD being more prominent in the remaining 25%. The results demonstrate that humans indeed readily internalize environmental statistics and adjust their cognitive/behavioral strategy accordingly, and that subtle patterns in RT variability can serve as a valuable tool for validating models of statistical learning and decision-making. More broadly, the modeling tools presented in this work can be generalized to a large body of behavioral paradigms, in order to extract insights about cognitive and neural processing from apparently quite noisy behavioral measures. We also discuss how this behaviorally validated model can then be used to conduct model-based analysis of neural data, in order to help identify specific brain areas for representing and encoding key computational quantities in learning and decision-making.

  18. Statistical learning and adaptive decision-making underlie human response time variability in inhibitory control.

    Ma, Ning; Yu, Angela J

    2015-01-01

    Response time (RT) is an oft-reported behavioral measure in psychological and neurocognitive experiments, but the high level of observed trial-to-trial variability in this measure has often limited its usefulness. Here, we combine computational modeling and psychophysics to examine the hypothesis that fluctuations in this noisy measure reflect dynamic computations in human statistical learning and corresponding cognitive adjustments. We present data from the stop-signal task (SST), in which subjects respond to a go stimulus on each trial, unless instructed not to by a subsequent, infrequently presented stop signal. We model across-trial learning of stop signal frequency, P(stop), and stop-signal onset time, SSD (stop-signal delay), with a Bayesian hidden Markov model, and within-trial decision-making with an optimal stochastic control model. The combined model predicts that RT should increase with both expected P(stop) and SSD. The human behavioral data (n = 20) bear out this prediction, showing P(stop) and SSD both to be significant, independent predictors of RT, with P(stop) being a more prominent predictor in 75% of the subjects, and SSD being more prominent in the remaining 25%. The results demonstrate that humans indeed readily internalize environmental statistics and adjust their cognitive/behavioral strategy accordingly, and that subtle patterns in RT variability can serve as a valuable tool for validating models of statistical learning and decision-making. More broadly, the modeling tools presented in this work can be generalized to a large body of behavioral paradigms, in order to extract insights about cognitive and neural processing from apparently quite noisy behavioral measures. We also discuss how this behaviorally validated model can then be used to conduct model-based analysis of neural data, in order to help identify specific brain areas for representing and encoding key computational quantities in learning and decision-making.

  19. Degeneracy of time series models: The best model is not always the correct model

    Judd, Kevin; Nakamura, Tomomichi

    2006-01-01

    There are a number of good techniques for finding, in some sense, the best model of a deterministic system given a time series of observations. We examine a problem called model degeneracy, which has the consequence that even when a perfect model of a system exists, one does not find it using the best techniques currently available. The problem is illustrated using global polynomial models and the theory of Groebner bases

  20. Modeling Fan Effects on the Time Course of Associative Recognition

    Schneider, Darryl W.; Anderson, John R.

    2012-01-01

    We investigated the time course of associative recognition using the response signal procedure, whereby a stimulus is presented and followed after a variable lag by a signal indicating that an immediate response is required. More specifically, we examined the effects of associative fan (the number of associations that an item has with other items…

  1. Characterization of Flow Paths, Residence Time and Media Chemistry in Complex Landscapes to Integrate Surface, Groundwater and Stream Processes and Inform Models of Hydrologic and Water Quality Response to Land Use Activities; Savannah River Site

    Bitew, Menberu [Univ. of Georgia Research Foundation, Inc., Athens, GA (United States); Jackson, Rhett [University of Georgia Research Foundation, Inc.

    2015-02-01

    The objective of this report is to document the methodology used to calculate the three hydro-geomorphic indices: C Index, Nhot spot, and Interflow Contributing Area (IFC Area). These indices were applied in the Upper Four Mile Creek Watershed in order to better understand the potential mechanisms controlling retention time, path lengths, and potential for nutrient and solute metabolism and exchange associated with the geomorphic configurations of the upland contributing areas, groundwater, the riparian zone, and stream channels.

  2. Reservoir theory, groundwater transit time distributions, and lumped parameter models

    Etcheverry, D.; Perrochet, P.

    1999-01-01

    The relation between groundwater residence times and transit times is given by the reservoir theory. It allows to calculate theoretical transit time distributions in a deterministic way, analytically, or on numerical models. Two analytical solutions validates the piston flow and the exponential model for simple conceptual flow systems. A numerical solution of a hypothetical regional groundwater flow shows that lumped parameter models could be applied in some cases to large-scale, heterogeneous aquifers. (author)

  3. Automated Predicate Abstraction for Real-Time Models

    Bahareh Badban

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available We present a technique designed to automatically compute predicate abstractions for dense real-timed models represented as networks of timed automata. We use the CIPM algorithm in our previous work which computes new invariants for timed automata control locations and prunes the model, to compute a predicate abstraction of the model. We do so by taking information regarding control locations and their newly computed invariants into account.

  4. The modeling of response indicators of integrated water resources ...

    models were used to model and predict the relationship between water resources mobilization WRM and response variables in the ... to the fast growing demand of urban and rural populations ... Meteorological Organization (WMO). They fall.

  5. Long Memory of Financial Time Series and Hidden Markov Models with Time-Varying Parameters

    Nystrup, Peter; Madsen, Henrik; Lindström, Erik

    2016-01-01

    Hidden Markov models are often used to model daily returns and to infer the hidden state of financial markets. Previous studies have found that the estimated models change over time, but the implications of the time-varying behavior have not been thoroughly examined. This paper presents an adaptive...... to reproduce with a hidden Markov model. Capturing the time-varying behavior of the parameters also leads to improved one-step density forecasts. Finally, it is shown that the forecasting performance of the estimated models can be further improved using local smoothing to forecast the parameter variations....

  6. Tempered fractional time series model for turbulence in geophysical flows

    Meerschaert, Mark M.; Sabzikar, Farzad; Phanikumar, Mantha S.; Zeleke, Aklilu

    2014-09-01

    We propose a new time series model for velocity data in turbulent flows. The new model employs tempered fractional calculus to extend the classical 5/3 spectral model of Kolmogorov. Application to wind speed and water velocity in a large lake are presented, to demonstrate the practical utility of the model.

  7. Tempered fractional time series model for turbulence in geophysical flows

    Meerschaert, Mark M; Sabzikar, Farzad; Phanikumar, Mantha S; Zeleke, Aklilu

    2014-01-01

    We propose a new time series model for velocity data in turbulent flows. The new model employs tempered fractional calculus to extend the classical 5/3 spectral model of Kolmogorov. Application to wind speed and water velocity in a large lake are presented, to demonstrate the practical utility of the model. (paper)

  8. A Dynamic Travel Time Estimation Model Based on Connected Vehicles

    Daxin Tian

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available With advances in connected vehicle technology, dynamic vehicle route guidance models gradually become indispensable equipment for drivers. Traditional route guidance models are designed to direct a vehicle along the shortest path from the origin to the destination without considering the dynamic traffic information. In this paper a dynamic travel time estimation model is presented which can collect and distribute traffic data based on the connected vehicles. To estimate the real-time travel time more accurately, a road link dynamic dividing algorithm is proposed. The efficiency of the model is confirmed by simulations, and the experiment results prove the effectiveness of the travel time estimation method.

  9. Multi-wheat-model ensemble responses to interannual climatic variability

    Ruane, A C; Hudson, N I; Asseng, S

    2016-01-01

    We compare 27 wheat models' yield responses to interannual climate variability, analyzed at locations in Argentina, Australia, India, and The Netherlands as part of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Wheat Pilot. Each model simulated 1981–2010 grain yield, and ......-term warming, suggesting that additional processes differentiate climate change impacts from observed climate variability analogs and motivating continuing analysis and model development efforts.......We compare 27 wheat models' yield responses to interannual climate variability, analyzed at locations in Argentina, Australia, India, and The Netherlands as part of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Wheat Pilot. Each model simulated 1981–2010 grain yield, and we...... evaluate results against the interannual variability of growing season temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation. The amount of information used for calibration has only a minor effect on most models' climate response, and even small multi-model ensembles prove beneficial. Wheat model clusters reveal...

  10. Modelling Social-Technical Attacks with Timed Automata

    David, Nicolas; David, Alexandre; Hansen, Rene Rydhof

    2015-01-01

    . In this paper we develop an approach towards modelling socio-technical systems in general and socio-technical attacks in particular, using timed automata and illustrate its application by a complex case study. Thanks to automated model checking and automata theory, we can automatically generate possible attacks...... in our model and perform analysis and simulation of both model and attack, revealing details about the specific interaction between attacker and victim. Using timed automata also allows for intuitive modelling of systems, in which quantities like time and cost can be easily added and analysed....

  11. A note on monotonicity of item response functions for ordered polytomous item response theory models.

    Kang, Hyeon-Ah; Su, Ya-Hui; Chang, Hua-Hua

    2018-03-08

    A monotone relationship between a true score (τ) and a latent trait level (θ) has been a key assumption for many psychometric applications. The monotonicity property in dichotomous response models is evident as a result of a transformation via a test characteristic curve. Monotonicity in polytomous models, in contrast, is not immediately obvious because item response functions are determined by a set of response category curves, which are conceivably non-monotonic in θ. The purpose of the present note is to demonstrate strict monotonicity in ordered polytomous item response models. Five models that are widely used in operational assessments are considered for proof: the generalized partial credit model (Muraki, 1992, Applied Psychological Measurement, 16, 159), the nominal model (Bock, 1972, Psychometrika, 37, 29), the partial credit model (Masters, 1982, Psychometrika, 47, 147), the rating scale model (Andrich, 1978, Psychometrika, 43, 561), and the graded response model (Samejima, 1972, A general model for free-response data (Psychometric Monograph no. 18). Psychometric Society, Richmond). The study asserts that the item response functions in these models strictly increase in θ and thus there exists strict monotonicity between τ and θ under certain specified conditions. This conclusion validates the practice of customarily using τ in place of θ in applied settings and provides theoretical grounds for one-to-one transformations between the two scales. © 2018 The British Psychological Society.

  12. Broadband Structural Dynamics: Understanding the Impulse-Response of Structures Across Multiple Length and Time Scales

    2010-08-18

    Spectral domain response calculated • Time domain response obtained through inverse transform Approach 4: WASABI Wavelet Analysis of Structural Anomalies...differences at unity scale! Time Function Transform Apply Spectral Domain Transfer Function Time Function Inverse Transform Transform Transform  mtP

  13. Bayesian Nonparametric Model for Estimating Multistate Travel Time Distribution

    Emmanuel Kidando

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Multistate models, that is, models with more than two distributions, are preferred over single-state probability models in modeling the distribution of travel time. Literature review indicated that the finite multistate modeling of travel time using lognormal distribution is superior to other probability functions. In this study, we extend the finite multistate lognormal model of estimating the travel time distribution to unbounded lognormal distribution. In particular, a nonparametric Dirichlet Process Mixture Model (DPMM with stick-breaking process representation was used. The strength of the DPMM is that it can choose the number of components dynamically as part of the algorithm during parameter estimation. To reduce computational complexity, the modeling process was limited to a maximum of six components. Then, the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC sampling technique was employed to estimate the parameters’ posterior distribution. Speed data from nine links of a freeway corridor, aggregated on a 5-minute basis, were used to calculate the corridor travel time. The results demonstrated that this model offers significant flexibility in modeling to account for complex mixture distributions of the travel time without specifying the number of components. The DPMM modeling further revealed that freeway travel time is characterized by multistate or single-state models depending on the inclusion of onset and offset of congestion periods.

  14. Modeling exposure–lag–response associations with distributed lag non-linear models

    Gasparrini, Antonio

    2014-01-01

    In biomedical research, a health effect is frequently associated with protracted exposures of varying intensity sustained in the past. The main complexity of modeling and interpreting such phenomena lies in the additional temporal dimension needed to express the association, as the risk depends on both intensity and timing of past exposures. This type of dependency is defined here as exposure–lag–response association. In this contribution, I illustrate a general statistical framework for such associations, established through the extension of distributed lag non-linear models, originally developed in time series analysis. This modeling class is based on the definition of a cross-basis, obtained by the combination of two functions to flexibly model linear or nonlinear exposure-responses and the lag structure of the relationship, respectively. The methodology is illustrated with an example application to cohort data and validated through a simulation study. This modeling framework generalizes to various study designs and regression models, and can be applied to study the health effects of protracted exposures to environmental factors, drugs or carcinogenic agents, among others. © 2013 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. PMID:24027094

  15. Grounding line transient response in marine ice sheet models

    A. S. Drouet

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Marine ice-sheet stability is mostly controlled by the dynamics of the grounding line, i.e. the junction between the grounded ice sheet and the floating ice shelf. Grounding line migration has been investigated within the framework of MISMIP (Marine Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project, which mainly aimed at investigating steady state solutions. Here we focus on transient behaviour, executing short-term simulations (200 yr of a steady ice sheet perturbed by the release of the buttressing restraint exerted by the ice shelf on the grounded ice upstream. The transient grounding line behaviour of four different flowline ice-sheet models has been compared. The models differ in the physics implemented (full Stokes and shallow shelf approximation, the numerical approach, as well as the grounding line treatment. Their overall response to the loss of buttressing is found to be broadly consistent in terms of grounding line position, rate of surface elevation change and surface velocity. However, still small differences appear for these latter variables, and they can lead to large discrepancies (> 100% observed in terms of ice sheet contribution to sea level when cumulated over time. Despite the recent important improvements of marine ice-sheet models in their ability to compute steady state configurations, our results question the capacity of these models to compute short-term reliable sea-level rise projections.

  16. Modelling Flexible Pavement Response and Performance

    Ullidtz, Per

    This textbook is primarily concerned with models for predicting the future condition of flexible pavements, as a function of traffic loading, climate, materials, etc., using analytical-empirical methods.......This textbook is primarily concerned with models for predicting the future condition of flexible pavements, as a function of traffic loading, climate, materials, etc., using analytical-empirical methods....

  17. Classification of scalar and dyadic nonlocal optical response models

    Wubs, Martijn

    2015-01-01

    Nonlocal optical response is one of the emerging effects on the nanoscale for particles made of metals or doped semiconductors. Here we classify and compare both scalar and tensorial nonlocal response models. In the latter case the nonlocality can stem from either the longitudinal response...

  18. Overeating at dinner time among Japanese workers: Is overeating related to stress response and late dinner times?

    Suzuki, Akiko; Sakurazawa, Hirofumi; Fujita, Takanori; Akamatsu, Rie

    2016-06-01

    There are several known risk factors for overeating, including negative feelings and hunger. It was hypothesized that overtime work is associated with stress responses and later dinner times, leading to longer periods of time without eating, and that this, in turn, leads to a strong experience of hunger and consequent overeating at dinner. The aim of this study was to examine relationships among overeating at dinner, stress responses (e.g., fatigue, anxiety, and depression), and dinner times in Japanese male workers. In December 2012, 255 Japanese male workers at a leasing company completed a self-report questionnaire about overeating at dinner, psychological stress responses, physical stress responses, and dinner times. Each worker was sent an email with a link to the questionnaire website, where his answers were collected. Relationships between overeating at dinner and lifestyle issues were investigated using multiple linear regression analysis treating overeating as a dependent variable. Factors related to overeating at dinner included psychological stress response (β = 0.251 p overeating at dinner is related to dinner time in men and to stress responses. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Residence times and alluvial architecture of a sediment superslug in response to different flow regimes

    Moody, John A.

    2017-01-01

    A superslug was deposited in a basin in the Colorado Front Range Mountains as a consequence of an extreme flood following a wildfire disturbance in 1996. The subsequent evolution of this superslug was measured by repeat topographic surveys (31 surveys from 1996 through 2014) of 18 cross sections approximately uniformly spaced over 1500 m immediately above the basin outlet. These surveys allowed the identification within the superslug of chronostratigraphic units deposited and eroded by different geomorphic processes in response to different flow regimes.Over the time period of the study, the superslug went through aggradation, incision, and stabilization phases that were controlled by a shift in geomorphic processes from generally short-duration, episodic, large-magnitude floods that deposited new chronostratigraphic units to long-duration processes that eroded units. These phases were not contemporaneous at each channel cross section, which resulted in a complex response that preserved different chronostratigraphic units at each channel cross section having, in general, two dominant types of alluvial architecture—laminar and fragmented. Age and transit-time distributions for these two alluvial architectures evolved with time since the extreme flood. Because of the complex shape of the distributions they were best modeled by two-parameter Weibull functions. The Weibull scale parameter approximated the median age of the distributions, and the Weibull shape parameter generally had a linear relation that increased with time since the extreme flood. Additional results indicated that deposition of new chronostratigraphic units can be represented by a power-law frequency distribution, and that the erosion of units decreases with depth of burial to a limiting depth. These relations can be used to model other situations with different flow regimes where vertical aggradation and incision are dominant processes, to predict the residence time of possible contaminated

  20. Residence times and alluvial architecture of a sediment superslug in response to different flow regimes

    Moody, John A.

    2017-10-01

    A superslug was deposited in a basin in the Colorado Front Range Mountains as a consequence of an extreme flood following a wildfire disturbance in 1996. The subsequent evolution of this superslug was measured by repeat topographic surveys (31 surveys from 1996 through 2014) of 18 cross sections approximately uniformly spaced over 1500 m immediately above the basin outlet. These surveys allowed the identification within the superslug of chronostratigraphic units deposited and eroded by different geomorphic processes in response to different flow regimes. Over the time period of the study, the superslug went through aggradation, incision, and stabilization phases that were controlled by a shift in geomorphic processes from generally short-duration, episodic, large-magnitude floods that deposited new chronostratigraphic units to long-duration processes that eroded units. These phases were not contemporaneous at each channel cross section, which resulted in a complex response that preserved different chronostratigraphic units at each channel cross section having, in general, two dominant types of alluvial architecture-laminar and fragmented. Age and transit-time distributions for these two alluvial architectures evolved with time since the extreme flood. Because of the complex shape of the distributions they were best modeled by two-parameter Weibull functions. The Weibull scale parameter approximated the median age of the distributions, and the Weibull shape parameter generally had a linear relation that increased with time since the extreme flood. Additional results indicated that deposition of new chronostratigraphic units can be represented by a power-law frequency distribution, and that the erosion of units decreases with depth of burial to a limiting depth. These relations can be used to model other situations with different flow regimes where vertical aggradation and incision are dominant processes, to predict the residence time of possible contaminated