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Sample records for response sensitivity analysis

  1. Study plan for the sensitivity analysis of the Terrain-Responsive Atmospheric Code (TRAC)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Restrepo, L.F.; Deitesfeld, C.A.

    1987-01-01

    Rocky Flats Plant, Golden, Colorado is presently developing a computer code to model the dispersion of potential or actual releases of radioactive or toxic materials to the environment, along with the public consequences from these releases. The model, the Terrain-Responsive Atmospheric Code (TRAC), considers several complex features which could affect the overall dispersion and consequences. To help validate TRAC, a sensitivity analysis is being planned to determine how sensitive the model's solutions are to input variables. This report contains a brief description of the code, along with a list of tasks and resources needed to complete the sensitivity analysis

  2. Biochemical analysis of force-sensitive responses using a large-scale cell stretch device.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Renner, Derrick J; Ewald, Makena L; Kim, Timothy; Yamada, Soichiro

    2017-09-03

    Physical force has emerged as a key regulator of tissue homeostasis, and plays an important role in embryogenesis, tissue regeneration, and disease progression. Currently, the details of protein interactions under elevated physical stress are largely missing, therefore, preventing the fundamental, molecular understanding of mechano-transduction. This is in part due to the difficulty isolating large quantities of cell lysates exposed to force-bearing conditions for biochemical analysis. We designed a simple, easy-to-fabricate, large-scale cell stretch device for the analysis of force-sensitive cell responses. Using proximal biotinylation (BioID) analysis or phospho-specific antibodies, we detected force-sensitive biochemical changes in cells exposed to prolonged cyclic substrate stretch. For example, using promiscuous biotin ligase BirA* tagged α-catenin, the biotinylation of myosin IIA increased with stretch, suggesting the close proximity of myosin IIA to α-catenin under a force bearing condition. Furthermore, using phospho-specific antibodies, Akt phosphorylation was reduced upon stretch while Src phosphorylation was unchanged. Interestingly, phosphorylation of GSK3β, a downstream effector of Akt pathway, was also reduced with stretch, while the phosphorylation of other Akt effectors was unchanged. These data suggest that the Akt-GSK3β pathway is force-sensitive. This simple cell stretch device enables biochemical analysis of force-sensitive responses and has potential to uncover molecules underlying mechano-transduction.

  3. Sensitivity analysis of thermal hydraulic response in containment at core meltdown accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kobayashi, Kensuke; Ishigami, Tsutomu; Horii, Hideo; Chiba, Takemi.

    1985-01-01

    A sensitivity analysis of thermal hydraulic response in a containment during a 'station blackout' (the loss of all AC power) accident at Browns Ferry unit one plant was performed with the computer code MARCH 1.0. In the analysis, the plant station batteries were assumed to be available for 4h after the initiation of the accident. The thermal hydraulic response in the containment was calculated by varying several input data for MARCH 1.0 independently and the deviation among calculated results were investigated. The sensitivity analysis showed that (a) the containment would fail due to the overtemperature without any operator actions for plant recovery, which would be strongly dependent on the model of the debris-concrete interaction and the input parameters for specifying the containment failure modes in MARCH 1.0, (b) a core melting temperature and an amount of water left in a primary system at the end of the meltdown were identified as important parameters which influenced the time of the containment failure, and (c) experimental works regarding the parameters mentioned above could be recommended. (author)

  4. Sensitivity Study on Analysis of Reactor Containment Response to LOCA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chung, Ku Young; Sung, Key Yong

    2010-01-01

    As a reactor containment vessel is the final barrier to the release of radioactive material during design basis accidents (DBAs), its structural integrity must be maintained by withstanding the high pressure conditions resulting from DBAs. To verify the structural integrity of the containment, response analyses are performed to get the pressure transient inside the containment after DBAs, including loss of coolant accidents (LOCAs). The purpose of this study is to give regulative insights into the importance of input variables in the analysis of containment responses to a large break LOCA (LBLOCA). For the sensitivity study, a LBLOCA in Kori 3 and 4 nuclear power plant (NPP) is analyzed by CONTEMPT-LT computer code

  5. Sensitivity Study on Analysis of Reactor Containment Response to LOCA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chung, Ku Young; Sung, Key Yong [Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2010-10-15

    As a reactor containment vessel is the final barrier to the release of radioactive material during design basis accidents (DBAs), its structural integrity must be maintained by withstanding the high pressure conditions resulting from DBAs. To verify the structural integrity of the containment, response analyses are performed to get the pressure transient inside the containment after DBAs, including loss of coolant accidents (LOCAs). The purpose of this study is to give regulative insights into the importance of input variables in the analysis of containment responses to a large break LOCA (LBLOCA). For the sensitivity study, a LBLOCA in Kori 3 and 4 nuclear power plant (NPP) is analyzed by CONTEMPT-LT computer code

  6. Sensitivity Analysis of Multidisciplinary Rotorcraft Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Li; Diskin, Boris; Biedron, Robert T.; Nielsen, Eric J.; Bauchau, Olivier A.

    2017-01-01

    A multidisciplinary sensitivity analysis of rotorcraft simulations involving tightly coupled high-fidelity computational fluid dynamics and comprehensive analysis solvers is presented and evaluated. An unstructured sensitivity-enabled Navier-Stokes solver, FUN3D, and a nonlinear flexible multibody dynamics solver, DYMORE, are coupled to predict the aerodynamic loads and structural responses of helicopter rotor blades. A discretely-consistent adjoint-based sensitivity analysis available in FUN3D provides sensitivities arising from unsteady turbulent flows and unstructured dynamic overset meshes, while a complex-variable approach is used to compute DYMORE structural sensitivities with respect to aerodynamic loads. The multidisciplinary sensitivity analysis is conducted through integrating the sensitivity components from each discipline of the coupled system. Numerical results verify accuracy of the FUN3D/DYMORE system by conducting simulations for a benchmark rotorcraft test model and comparing solutions with established analyses and experimental data. Complex-variable implementation of sensitivity analysis of DYMORE and the coupled FUN3D/DYMORE system is verified by comparing with real-valued analysis and sensitivities. Correctness of adjoint formulations for FUN3D/DYMORE interfaces is verified by comparing adjoint-based and complex-variable sensitivities. Finally, sensitivities of the lift and drag functions obtained by complex-variable FUN3D/DYMORE simulations are compared with sensitivities computed by the multidisciplinary sensitivity analysis, which couples adjoint-based flow and grid sensitivities of FUN3D and FUN3D/DYMORE interfaces with complex-variable sensitivities of DYMORE structural responses.

  7. SENSIT: a cross-section and design sensitivity and uncertainty analysis code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gerstl, S.A.W.

    1980-01-01

    SENSIT computes the sensitivity and uncertainty of a calculated integral response (such as a dose rate) due to input cross sections and their uncertainties. Sensitivity profiles are computed for neutron and gamma-ray reaction cross sections of standard multigroup cross section sets and for secondary energy distributions (SEDs) of multigroup scattering matrices. In the design sensitivity mode, SENSIT computes changes in an integral response due to design changes and gives the appropriate sensitivity coefficients. Cross section uncertainty analyses are performed for three types of input data uncertainties: cross-section covariance matrices for pairs of multigroup reaction cross sections, spectral shape uncertainty parameters for secondary energy distributions (integral SED uncertainties), and covariance matrices for energy-dependent response functions. For all three types of data uncertainties SENSIT computes the resulting variance and estimated standard deviation in an integral response of interest, on the basis of generalized perturbation theory. SENSIT attempts to be more comprehensive than earlier sensitivity analysis codes, such as SWANLAKE

  8. Quantitative global sensitivity analysis of a biologically based dose-response pregnancy model for the thyroid endocrine system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lumen, Annie; McNally, Kevin; George, Nysia; Fisher, Jeffrey W; Loizou, George D

    2015-01-01

    A deterministic biologically based dose-response model for the thyroidal system in a near-term pregnant woman and the fetus was recently developed to evaluate quantitatively thyroid hormone perturbations. The current work focuses on conducting a quantitative global sensitivity analysis on this complex model to identify and characterize the sources and contributions of uncertainties in the predicted model output. The workflow and methodologies suitable for computationally expensive models, such as the Morris screening method and Gaussian Emulation processes, were used for the implementation of the global sensitivity analysis. Sensitivity indices, such as main, total and interaction effects, were computed for a screened set of the total thyroidal system descriptive model input parameters. Furthermore, a narrower sub-set of the most influential parameters affecting the model output of maternal thyroid hormone levels were identified in addition to the characterization of their overall and pair-wise parameter interaction quotients. The characteristic trends of influence in model output for each of these individual model input parameters over their plausible ranges were elucidated using Gaussian Emulation processes. Through global sensitivity analysis we have gained a better understanding of the model behavior and performance beyond the domains of observation by the simultaneous variation in model inputs over their range of plausible uncertainties. The sensitivity analysis helped identify parameters that determine the driving mechanisms of the maternal and fetal iodide kinetics, thyroid function and their interactions, and contributed to an improved understanding of the system modeled. We have thus demonstrated the use and application of global sensitivity analysis for a biologically based dose-response model for sensitive life-stages such as pregnancy that provides richer information on the model and the thyroidal system modeled compared to local sensitivity analysis.

  9. Quantitative global sensitivity analysis of a biologically based dose-response pregnancy model for the thyroid endocrine system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Annie eLumen

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available A deterministic biologically based dose-response model for the thyroidal system in a near-term pregnant woman and the fetus was recently developed to evaluate quantitatively thyroid hormone perturbations. The current work focuses on conducting a quantitative global sensitivity analysis on this complex model to identify and characterize the sources and contributions of uncertainties in the predicted model output. The workflow and methodologies suitable for computationally expensive models, such as the Morris screening method and Gaussian Emulation processes, were used for the implementation of the global sensitivity analysis. Sensitivity indices, such as main, total and interaction effects, were computed for a screened set of the total thyroidal system descriptive model input parameters. Furthermore, a narrower sub-set of the most influential parameters affecting the model output of maternal thyroid hormone levels were identified in addition to the characterization of their overall and pair-wise parameter interaction quotients. The characteristic trends of influence in model output for each of these individual model input parameters over their plausible ranges were elucidated using Gaussian Emulation processes. Through global sensitivity analysis we have gained a better understanding of the model behavior and performance beyond the domains of observation by the simultaneous variation in model inputs over their range of plausible uncertainties. The sensitivity analysis helped identify parameters that determine the driving mechanisms of the maternal and fetal iodide kinetics, thyroid function and their interactions, and contributed to an improved understanding of the system modeled. We have thus demonstrated the use and application of global sensitivity analysis for a biologically based dose-response model for sensitive life-stages such as pregnancy that provides richer information on the model and the thyroidal system modeled compared to local

  10. Sensitivity Analysis of Viscoelastic Structures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.M.G. de Lima

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available In the context of control of sound and vibration of mechanical systems, the use of viscoelastic materials has been regarded as a convenient strategy in many types of industrial applications. Numerical models based on finite element discretization have been frequently used in the analysis and design of complex structural systems incorporating viscoelastic materials. Such models must account for the typical dependence of the viscoelastic characteristics on operational and environmental parameters, such as frequency and temperature. In many applications, including optimal design and model updating, sensitivity analysis based on numerical models is a very usefull tool. In this paper, the formulation of first-order sensitivity analysis of complex frequency response functions is developed for plates treated with passive constraining damping layers, considering geometrical characteristics, such as the thicknesses of the multi-layer components, as design variables. Also, the sensitivity of the frequency response functions with respect to temperature is introduced. As an example, response derivatives are calculated for a three-layer sandwich plate and the results obtained are compared with first-order finite-difference approximations.

  11. Maternal sensitivity: a concept analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shin, Hyunjeong; Park, Young-Joo; Ryu, Hosihn; Seomun, Gyeong-Ae

    2008-11-01

    The aim of this paper is to report a concept analysis of maternal sensitivity. Maternal sensitivity is a broad concept encompassing a variety of interrelated affective and behavioural caregiving attributes. It is used interchangeably with the terms maternal responsiveness or maternal competency, with no consistency of use. There is a need to clarify the concept of maternal sensitivity for research and practice. A search was performed on the CINAHL and Ovid MEDLINE databases using 'maternal sensitivity', 'maternal responsiveness' and 'sensitive mothering' as key words. The searches yielded 54 records for the years 1981-2007. Rodgers' method of evolutionary concept analysis was used to analyse the material. Four critical attributes of maternal sensitivity were identified: (a) dynamic process involving maternal abilities; (b) reciprocal give-and-take with the infant; (c) contingency on the infant's behaviour and (d) quality of maternal behaviours. Maternal identity and infant's needs and cues are antecedents for these attributes. The consequences are infant's comfort, mother-infant attachment and infant development. In addition, three positive affecting factors (social support, maternal-foetal attachment and high self-esteem) and three negative affecting factors (maternal depression, maternal stress and maternal anxiety) were identified. A clear understanding of the concept of maternal sensitivity could be useful for developing ways to enhance maternal sensitivity and to maximize the developmental potential of infants. Knowledge of the attributes of maternal sensitivity identified in this concept analysis may be helpful for constructing measuring items or dimensions.

  12. A Monte Carlo/response surface strategy for sensitivity analysis: application to a dynamic model of vegetative plant growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, J. T.; Gold, H. J.; Wilkerson, G. G.; Raper, C. D. Jr; Raper CD, J. r. (Principal Investigator)

    1989-01-01

    We describe the application of a strategy for conducting a sensitivity analysis for a complex dynamic model. The procedure involves preliminary screening of parameter sensitivities by numerical estimation of linear sensitivity coefficients, followed by generation of a response surface based on Monte Carlo simulation. Application is to a physiological model of the vegetative growth of soybean plants. The analysis provides insights as to the relative importance of certain physiological processes in controlling plant growth. Advantages and disadvantages of the strategy are discussed.

  13. Binaural sensitivity changes between cortical on and off responses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dahmen, Johannes C.; King, Andrew J.; Schnupp, Jan W. H.

    2011-01-01

    Neurons exhibiting on and off responses with different frequency tuning have previously been described in the primary auditory cortex (A1) of anesthetized and awake animals, but it is unknown whether other tuning properties, including sensitivity to binaural localization cues, also differ between on and off responses. We measured the sensitivity of A1 neurons in anesthetized ferrets to 1) interaural level differences (ILDs), using unmodulated broadband noise with varying ILDs and average binaural levels, and 2) interaural time delays (ITDs), using sinusoidally amplitude-modulated broadband noise with varying envelope ITDs. We also assessed fine-structure ITD sensitivity and frequency tuning, using pure-tone stimuli. Neurons most commonly responded to stimulus onset only, but purely off responses and on-off responses were also recorded. Of the units exhibiting significant binaural sensitivity nearly one-quarter showed binaural sensitivity in both on and off responses, but in almost all (∼97%) of these units the binaural tuning of the on responses differed significantly from that seen in the off responses. Moreover, averaged, normalized ILD and ITD tuning curves calculated from all units showing significant sensitivity to binaural cues indicated that on and off responses displayed different sensitivity patterns across the population. A principal component analysis of ITD response functions suggested a continuous cortical distribution of binaural sensitivity, rather than discrete response classes. Rather than reflecting a release from inhibition without any functional significance, we propose that binaural off responses may be important to cortical encoding of sound-source location. PMID:21562191

  14. Sensitivity analysis of EQ3

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Horwedel, J.E.; Wright, R.Q.; Maerker, R.E.

    1990-01-01

    A sensitivity analysis of EQ3, a computer code which has been proposed to be used as one link in the overall performance assessment of a national high-level waste repository, has been performed. EQ3 is a geochemical modeling code used to calculate the speciation of a water and its saturation state with respect to mineral phases. The model chosen for the sensitivity analysis is one which is used as a test problem in the documentation of the EQ3 code. Sensitivities are calculated using both the CHAIN and ADGEN options of the GRESS code compiled under G-float FORTRAN on the VAX/VMS and verified by perturbation runs. The analyses were performed with a preliminary Version 1.0 of GRESS which contains several new algorithms that significantly improve the application of ADGEN. Use of ADGEN automates the implementation of the well-known adjoint technique for the efficient calculation of sensitivities of a given response to all the input data. Application of ADGEN to EQ3 results in the calculation of sensitivities of a particular response to 31,000 input parameters in a run time of only 27 times that of the original model. Moreover, calculation of the sensitivities for each additional response increases this factor by only 2.5 percent. This compares very favorably with a running-time factor of 31,000 if direct perturbation runs were used instead. 6 refs., 8 tabs

  15. Impact Responses and Parameters Sensitivity Analysis of Electric Wheelchairs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Song Wang

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available The shock and vibration of electric wheelchairs undergoing road irregularities is inevitable. The road excitation causes the uneven magnetic gap of the motor, and the harmful vibration decreases the recovery rate of rehabilitation patients. To effectively suppress the shock and vibration, this paper introduces the DA (dynamic absorber to the electric wheelchair. Firstly, a vibration model of the human-wheelchair system with the DA was created. The models of the road excitation for wheelchairs going up a step and going down a step were proposed, respectively. To reasonably evaluate the impact level of the human-wheelchair system undergoing the step–road transition, evaluation indexes were given. Moreover, the created vibration model and the road–step model were validated via tests. Then, to reveal the vibration suppression performance of the DA, the impact responses and the amplitude frequency characteristics were numerically simulated and compared. Finally, a sensitivity analysis of the impact responses to the tire static radius r and the characteristic parameters was carried out. The results show that the DA can effectively suppress the shock and vibration of the human-wheelchair system. Moreover, for the electric wheelchair going up a step and going down a step, there are some differences in the vibration behaviors.

  16. Sensitivity analysis approaches applied to systems biology models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zi, Z

    2011-11-01

    With the rising application of systems biology, sensitivity analysis methods have been widely applied to study the biological systems, including metabolic networks, signalling pathways and genetic circuits. Sensitivity analysis can provide valuable insights about how robust the biological responses are with respect to the changes of biological parameters and which model inputs are the key factors that affect the model outputs. In addition, sensitivity analysis is valuable for guiding experimental analysis, model reduction and parameter estimation. Local and global sensitivity analysis approaches are the two types of sensitivity analysis that are commonly applied in systems biology. Local sensitivity analysis is a classic method that studies the impact of small perturbations on the model outputs. On the other hand, global sensitivity analysis approaches have been applied to understand how the model outputs are affected by large variations of the model input parameters. In this review, the author introduces the basic concepts of sensitivity analysis approaches applied to systems biology models. Moreover, the author discusses the advantages and disadvantages of different sensitivity analysis methods, how to choose a proper sensitivity analysis approach, the available sensitivity analysis tools for systems biology models and the caveats in the interpretation of sensitivity analysis results.

  17. A hybrid approach for global sensitivity analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chakraborty, Souvik; Chowdhury, Rajib

    2017-01-01

    Distribution based sensitivity analysis (DSA) computes sensitivity of the input random variables with respect to the change in distribution of output response. Although DSA is widely appreciated as the best tool for sensitivity analysis, the computational issue associated with this method prohibits its use for complex structures involving costly finite element analysis. For addressing this issue, this paper presents a method that couples polynomial correlated function expansion (PCFE) with DSA. PCFE is a fully equivalent operational model which integrates the concepts of analysis of variance decomposition, extended bases and homotopy algorithm. By integrating PCFE into DSA, it is possible to considerably alleviate the computational burden. Three examples are presented to demonstrate the performance of the proposed approach for sensitivity analysis. For all the problems, proposed approach yields excellent results with significantly reduced computational effort. The results obtained, to some extent, indicate that proposed approach can be utilized for sensitivity analysis of large scale structures. - Highlights: • A hybrid approach for global sensitivity analysis is proposed. • Proposed approach integrates PCFE within distribution based sensitivity analysis. • Proposed approach is highly efficient.

  18. Response surface methodology for sensitivity and uncertainty analysis: performance and perspectives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Olivi, L.; Brunelli, F.; Cacciabue, P.C.; Parisi, P.

    1985-01-01

    Two main aspects have to be taken into account in studying a nuclear accident scenario when using nuclear safety codes as an information source. The first one concerns the behavior of the code response and the set of assumptions to be introduced for its modelling. The second one is connected with the uncertainty features of the code input, often modelled as a probability density function (pdf). The analyst can apply two well-defined approaches depending on whether he wants major emphasis put on either of the aspects. Response Surface Methodology uses polynomial and inverse polynomial models together with the theory of experimental design, expressly developed for the identification procedure. It constitutes a well-established body of techniques able to cover a wide spectrum of requirements, when the first aspect plays the crucial role in the definition of the objectives. Other techniques such as Latin hypercube sampling, stratified sampling or even random sampling can fit better, when the second aspect affects the reliability of the analysis. The ultimate goal for both approaches is the selection of the variable, i.e. the identification of the code input variables most effective on the output and the uncertainty propagation, i.e. the assessment of the pdf to be attributed to the code response. The main aim of this work is to present a sensitivity analysis method, already tested on a real case, sufficiently flexible to be applied in both approaches mentioned

  19. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis of biochemical reaction systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Hong-Xuan; Dempsey, William P; Goutsias, John

    2009-09-07

    Sensitivity analysis is an indispensable tool for studying the robustness and fragility properties of biochemical reaction systems as well as for designing optimal approaches for selective perturbation and intervention. Deterministic sensitivity analysis techniques, using derivatives of the system response, have been extensively used in the literature. However, these techniques suffer from several drawbacks, which must be carefully considered before using them in problems of systems biology. We develop here a probabilistic approach to sensitivity analysis of biochemical reaction systems. The proposed technique employs a biophysically derived model for parameter fluctuations and, by using a recently suggested variance-based approach to sensitivity analysis [Saltelli et al., Chem. Rev. (Washington, D.C.) 105, 2811 (2005)], it leads to a powerful sensitivity analysis methodology for biochemical reaction systems. The approach presented in this paper addresses many problems associated with derivative-based sensitivity analysis techniques. Most importantly, it produces thermodynamically consistent sensitivity analysis results, can easily accommodate appreciable parameter variations, and allows for systematic investigation of high-order interaction effects. By employing a computational model of the mitogen-activated protein kinase signaling cascade, we demonstrate that our approach is well suited for sensitivity analysis of biochemical reaction systems and can produce a wealth of information about the sensitivity properties of such systems. The price to be paid, however, is a substantial increase in computational complexity over derivative-based techniques, which must be effectively addressed in order to make the proposed approach to sensitivity analysis more practical.

  20. Sensitivity analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... page: //medlineplus.gov/ency/article/003741.htm Sensitivity analysis To use the sharing features on this page, please enable JavaScript. Sensitivity analysis determines the effectiveness of antibiotics against microorganisms (germs) ...

  1. Contributions to sensitivity analysis and generalized discriminant analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jacques, J.

    2005-12-01

    Two topics are studied in this thesis: sensitivity analysis and generalized discriminant analysis. Global sensitivity analysis of a mathematical model studies how the output variables of this last react to variations of its inputs. The methods based on the study of the variance quantify the part of variance of the response of the model due to each input variable and each subset of input variables. The first subject of this thesis is the impact of a model uncertainty on results of a sensitivity analysis. Two particular forms of uncertainty are studied: that due to a change of the model of reference, and that due to the use of a simplified model with the place of the model of reference. A second problem was studied during this thesis, that of models with correlated inputs. Indeed, classical sensitivity indices not having significance (from an interpretation point of view) in the presence of correlation of the inputs, we propose a multidimensional approach consisting in expressing the sensitivity of the output of the model to groups of correlated variables. Applications in the field of nuclear engineering illustrate this work. Generalized discriminant analysis consists in classifying the individuals of a test sample in groups, by using information contained in a training sample, when these two samples do not come from the same population. This work extends existing methods in a Gaussian context to the case of binary data. An application in public health illustrates the utility of generalized discrimination models thus defined. (author)

  2. Sensitivity analysis of a low-level waste environmental transport code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hiromoto, G.

    1989-01-01

    Results are presented from a sensivity analysis of a computer code designed to simulate the environmental transport of radionuclides buried at shallow land waste repositories. A sensitivity analysis methodology, based on the surface response replacement and statistic sensitivity estimators, was developed to address the relative importance of the input parameters on the model output. Response surface replacement for the model was constructed by stepwise regression, after sampling input vectors from range and distribution of the input variables, and running the code to generate the associated output data. Sensitivity estimators were compute using the partial rank correlation coefficients and the standardized rank regression coefficients. The results showed that the tecniques employed in this work provides a feasible means to perform a sensitivity analysis of a general not-linear environmental radionuclides transport models. (author) [pt

  3. SENSIT: a cross-section and design sensitivity and uncertainty analysis code. [In FORTRAN for CDC-7600, IBM 360

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gerstl, S.A.W.

    1980-01-01

    SENSIT computes the sensitivity and uncertainty of a calculated integral response (such as a dose rate) due to input cross sections and their uncertainties. Sensitivity profiles are computed for neutron and gamma-ray reaction cross sections of standard multigroup cross section sets and for secondary energy distributions (SEDs) of multigroup scattering matrices. In the design sensitivity mode, SENSIT computes changes in an integral response due to design changes and gives the appropriate sensitivity coefficients. Cross section uncertainty analyses are performed for three types of input data uncertainties: cross-section covariance matrices for pairs of multigroup reaction cross sections, spectral shape uncertainty parameters for secondary energy distributions (integral SED uncertainties), and covariance matrices for energy-dependent response functions. For all three types of data uncertainties SENSIT computes the resulting variance and estimated standard deviation in an integral response of interest, on the basis of generalized perturbation theory. SENSIT attempts to be more comprehensive than earlier sensitivity analysis codes, such as SWANLAKE.

  4. Ethical sensitivity in professional practice: concept analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weaver, Kathryn; Morse, Janice; Mitcham, Carl

    2008-06-01

    This paper is a report of a concept analysis of ethical sensitivity. Ethical sensitivity enables nurses and other professionals to respond morally to the suffering and vulnerability of those receiving professional care and services. Because of its significance to nursing and other professional practices, ethical sensitivity deserves more focused analysis. A criteria-based method oriented toward pragmatic utility guided the analysis of 200 papers and books from the fields of nursing, medicine, psychology, dentistry, clinical ethics, theology, education, law, accounting or business, journalism, philosophy, political and social sciences and women's studies. This literature spanned 1970 to 2006 and was sorted by discipline and concept dimensions and examined for concept structure and use across various contexts. The analysis was completed in September 2007. Ethical sensitivity in professional practice develops in contexts of uncertainty, client suffering and vulnerability, and through relationships characterized by receptivity, responsiveness and courage on the part of professionals. Essential attributes of ethical sensitivity are identified as moral perception, affectivity and dividing loyalties. Outcomes include integrity preserving decision-making, comfort and well-being, learning and professional transcendence. Our findings promote ethical sensitivity as a type of practical wisdom that pursues client comfort and professional satisfaction with care delivery. The analysis and resulting model offers an inclusive view of ethical sensitivity that addresses some of the limitations with prior conceptualizations.

  5. Sensitivity Analysis of an ENteric Immunity SImulator (ENISI)-Based Model of Immune Responses to Helicobacter pylori Infection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alam, Maksudul; Deng, Xinwei; Philipson, Casandra; Bassaganya-Riera, Josep; Bisset, Keith; Carbo, Adria; Eubank, Stephen; Hontecillas, Raquel; Hoops, Stefan; Mei, Yongguo; Abedi, Vida; Marathe, Madhav

    2015-01-01

    Agent-based models (ABM) are widely used to study immune systems, providing a procedural and interactive view of the underlying system. The interaction of components and the behavior of individual objects is described procedurally as a function of the internal states and the local interactions, which are often stochastic in nature. Such models typically have complex structures and consist of a large number of modeling parameters. Determining the key modeling parameters which govern the outcomes of the system is very challenging. Sensitivity analysis plays a vital role in quantifying the impact of modeling parameters in massively interacting systems, including large complex ABM. The high computational cost of executing simulations impedes running experiments with exhaustive parameter settings. Existing techniques of analyzing such a complex system typically focus on local sensitivity analysis, i.e. one parameter at a time, or a close "neighborhood" of particular parameter settings. However, such methods are not adequate to measure the uncertainty and sensitivity of parameters accurately because they overlook the global impacts of parameters on the system. In this article, we develop novel experimental design and analysis techniques to perform both global and local sensitivity analysis of large-scale ABMs. The proposed method can efficiently identify the most significant parameters and quantify their contributions to outcomes of the system. We demonstrate the proposed methodology for ENteric Immune SImulator (ENISI), a large-scale ABM environment, using a computational model of immune responses to Helicobacter pylori colonization of the gastric mucosa.

  6. Sensitivity Analysis of Launch Vehicle Debris Risk Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gee, Ken; Lawrence, Scott L.

    2010-01-01

    As part of an analysis of the loss of crew risk associated with an ascent abort system for a manned launch vehicle, a model was developed to predict the impact risk of the debris resulting from an explosion of the launch vehicle on the crew module. The model consisted of a debris catalog describing the number, size and imparted velocity of each piece of debris, a method to compute the trajectories of the debris and a method to calculate the impact risk given the abort trajectory of the crew module. The model provided a point estimate of the strike probability as a function of the debris catalog, the time of abort and the delay time between the abort and destruction of the launch vehicle. A study was conducted to determine the sensitivity of the strike probability to the various model input parameters and to develop a response surface model for use in the sensitivity analysis of the overall ascent abort risk model. The results of the sensitivity analysis and the response surface model are presented in this paper.

  7. Community structure analysis of rejection sensitive personality profiles: A common neural response to social evaluative threat?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kortink, Elise D; Weeda, Wouter D; Crowley, Michael J; Gunther Moor, Bregtje; van der Molen, Melle J W

    2018-06-01

    Monitoring social threat is essential for maintaining healthy social relationships, and recent studies suggest a neural alarm system that governs our response to social rejection. Frontal-midline theta (4-8 Hz) oscillatory power might act as a neural correlate of this system by being sensitive to unexpected social rejection. Here, we examined whether frontal-midline theta is modulated by individual differences in personality constructs sensitive to social disconnection. In addition, we examined the sensitivity of feedback-related brain potentials (i.e., the feedback-related negativity and P3) to social feedback. Sixty-five undergraduate female participants (mean age = 19.69 years) participated in the Social Judgment Paradigm, a fictitious peer-evaluation task in which participants provided expectancies about being liked/disliked by peer strangers. Thereafter, they received feedback signaling social acceptance/rejection. A community structure analysis was employed to delineate personality profiles in our data. Results provided evidence of two subgroups: one group scored high on attachment-related anxiety and fear of negative evaluation, whereas the other group scored high on attachment-related avoidance and low on fear of negative evaluation. In both groups, unexpected rejection feedback yielded a significant increase in theta power. The feedback-related negativity was sensitive to unexpected feedback, regardless of valence, and was largest for unexpected rejection feedback. The feedback-related P3 was significantly enhanced in response to expected social acceptance feedback. Together, these findings confirm the sensitivity of frontal midline theta oscillations to the processing of social threat, and suggest that this alleged neural alarm system behaves similarly in individuals that differ in personality constructs relevant to social evaluation.

  8. A Global Sensitivity Analysis Methodology for Multi-physics Applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tong, C H; Graziani, F R

    2007-02-02

    Experiments are conducted to draw inferences about an entire ensemble based on a selected number of observations. This applies to both physical experiments as well as computer experiments, the latter of which are performed by running the simulation models at different input configurations and analyzing the output responses. Computer experiments are instrumental in enabling model analyses such as uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis. This report focuses on a global sensitivity analysis methodology that relies on a divide-and-conquer strategy and uses intelligent computer experiments. The objective is to assess qualitatively and/or quantitatively how the variabilities of simulation output responses can be accounted for by input variabilities. We address global sensitivity analysis in three aspects: methodology, sampling/analysis strategies, and an implementation framework. The methodology consists of three major steps: (1) construct credible input ranges; (2) perform a parameter screening study; and (3) perform a quantitative sensitivity analysis on a reduced set of parameters. Once identified, research effort should be directed to the most sensitive parameters to reduce their uncertainty bounds. This process is repeated with tightened uncertainty bounds for the sensitive parameters until the output uncertainties become acceptable. To accommodate the needs of multi-physics application, this methodology should be recursively applied to individual physics modules. The methodology is also distinguished by an efficient technique for computing parameter interactions. Details for each step will be given using simple examples. Numerical results on large scale multi-physics applications will be available in another report. Computational techniques targeted for this methodology have been implemented in a software package called PSUADE.

  9. Sensitivity analysis techniques applied to a system of hyperbolic conservation laws

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weirs, V. Gregory; Kamm, James R.; Swiler, Laura P.; Tarantola, Stefano; Ratto, Marco; Adams, Brian M.; Rider, William J.; Eldred, Michael S.

    2012-01-01

    Sensitivity analysis is comprised of techniques to quantify the effects of the input variables on a set of outputs. In particular, sensitivity indices can be used to infer which input parameters most significantly affect the results of a computational model. With continually increasing computing power, sensitivity analysis has become an important technique by which to understand the behavior of large-scale computer simulations. Many sensitivity analysis methods rely on sampling from distributions of the inputs. Such sampling-based methods can be computationally expensive, requiring many evaluations of the simulation; in this case, the Sobol' method provides an easy and accurate way to compute variance-based measures, provided a sufficient number of model evaluations are available. As an alternative, meta-modeling approaches have been devised to approximate the response surface and estimate various measures of sensitivity. In this work, we consider a variety of sensitivity analysis methods, including different sampling strategies, different meta-models, and different ways of evaluating variance-based sensitivity indices. The problem we consider is the 1-D Riemann problem. By a careful choice of inputs, discontinuous solutions are obtained, leading to discontinuous response surfaces; such surfaces can be particularly problematic for meta-modeling approaches. The goal of this study is to compare the estimated sensitivity indices with exact values and to evaluate the convergence of these estimates with increasing samples sizes and under an increasing number of meta-model evaluations. - Highlights: ► Sensitivity analysis techniques for a model shock physics problem are compared. ► The model problem and the sensitivity analysis problem have exact solutions. ► Subtle details of the method for computing sensitivity indices can affect the results.

  10. Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Cacuci, Dan G; Navon, Ionel Michael

    2005-01-01

    As computer-assisted modeling and analysis of physical processes have continued to grow and diversify, sensitivity and uncertainty analyses have become indispensable scientific tools. Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis. Volume I: Theory focused on the mathematical underpinnings of two important methods for such analyses: the Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Procedure and the Global Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Procedure. This volume concentrates on the practical aspects of performing these analyses for large-scale systems. The applications addressed include two-phase flow problems, a radiative c

  11. Code development of total sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for reactor physics calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wan, C.; Cao, L.; Wu, H.; Zu, T.; Shen, W.

    2015-01-01

    Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis are essential parts for reactor system to perform risk and policy analysis. In this study, total sensitivity and corresponding uncertainty analysis for responses of neutronics calculations have been accomplished and developed the S&U analysis code named UNICORN. The UNICORN code can consider the implicit effects of multigroup cross sections on the responses. The UNICORN code has been applied to typical pin-cell case in this paper, and can be proved correct by comparison the results with those of the TSUNAMI-1D code. (author)

  12. Code development of total sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for reactor physics calculations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wan, C.; Cao, L.; Wu, H.; Zu, T., E-mail: chenghuiwan@stu.xjtu.edu.cn, E-mail: caolz@mail.xjtu.edu.cn, E-mail: hongchun@mail.xjtu.edu.cn, E-mail: tiejun@mail.xjtu.edu.cn [Xi' an Jiaotong Univ., School of Nuclear Science and Technology, Xi' an (China); Shen, W., E-mail: Wei.Shen@cnsc-ccsn.gc.ca [Xi' an Jiaotong Univ., School of Nuclear Science and Technology, Xi' an (China); Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission, Ottawa, ON (Canada)

    2015-07-01

    Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis are essential parts for reactor system to perform risk and policy analysis. In this study, total sensitivity and corresponding uncertainty analysis for responses of neutronics calculations have been accomplished and developed the S&U analysis code named UNICORN. The UNICORN code can consider the implicit effects of multigroup cross sections on the responses. The UNICORN code has been applied to typical pin-cell case in this paper, and can be proved correct by comparison the results with those of the TSUNAMI-1D code. (author)

  13. Deterministic sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for large-scale computer models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Worley, B.A.; Pin, F.G.; Oblow, E.M.; Maerker, R.E.; Horwedel, J.E.; Wright, R.Q.

    1988-01-01

    The fields of sensitivity and uncertainty analysis have traditionally been dominated by statistical techniques when large-scale modeling codes are being analyzed. These methods are able to estimate sensitivities, generate response surfaces, and estimate response probability distributions given the input parameter probability distributions. Because the statistical methods are computationally costly, they are usually applied only to problems with relatively small parameter sets. Deterministic methods, on the other hand, are very efficient and can handle large data sets, but generally require simpler models because of the considerable programming effort required for their implementation. The first part of this paper reports on the development and availability of two systems, GRESS and ADGEN, that make use of computer calculus compilers to automate the implementation of deterministic sensitivity analysis capability into existing computer models. This automation removes the traditional limitation of deterministic sensitivity methods. This second part of the paper describes a deterministic uncertainty analysis method (DUA) that uses derivative information as a basis to propagate parameter probability distributions to obtain result probability distributions. This paper is applicable to low-level radioactive waste disposal system performance assessment

  14. Sensitivity quantification of airport concrete pavement stress responses associated with top-down and bottom-up cracking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adel Rezaei-Tarahomi

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The Federal Aviation Administration’s (FAA’s rigid pavement design standard employs the NIKE3D-FAA software to compute critical pavement responses of concrete airport pavement structures. NIKE3D-FAA is a modification of the original NIKE3D three-dimensional finite element analysis program developed by the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL of the U.S. Department of Energy, and is currently used in the FAA’s FAARFIELD program. This study evaluated the sensitivity of NIKE3D-FAA rigid pavement responses with respect to top-down and bottom-up cracking. The analysis was conducted by positioning a Boeing 777-300ER (B777-300ERaircraft at different locations (interior, corner, and edge of slab as baseline while varying other NIKE3D-FAA inputs, including rigid pavement geometric features, mechanical properties of paving and foundation materials, equivalent temperature gradient and thermal coefficient of Portland Cement Concrete (PCC layers. Several sensitivity charts were developed by examining the sensitivity of critical pavement responses to each input variation. Sensitivity evaluations were performed using a normalized sensitivity index (NSI as the quantitative metric. Using such sensitivity evaluation, the most significant NIKE3D-FAA input parameters for generating an effective synthetic database that will lower computational cost for future modeling developments were identified. Keywords: Sensitivity analysis, Airfield concrete pavement, Finite element analysis, Top down cracking

  15. Shape optimization and sensitivity of compliant beams for prescribed load-displacement response

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Radaelli, G.; Herder, J.L.

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents the shape optimization of a compliant beam for prescribed load-displacements response. The analysis of the design is based on the isogeometric analysis framework for an enhanced fidelity between designed and analysed shape. The sensitivities used for an improved optimization

  16. Global sensitivity analysis of computer models with functional inputs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iooss, Bertrand; Ribatet, Mathieu

    2009-01-01

    Global sensitivity analysis is used to quantify the influence of uncertain model inputs on the response variability of a numerical model. The common quantitative methods are appropriate with computer codes having scalar model inputs. This paper aims at illustrating different variance-based sensitivity analysis techniques, based on the so-called Sobol's indices, when some model inputs are functional, such as stochastic processes or random spatial fields. In this work, we focus on large cpu time computer codes which need a preliminary metamodeling step before performing the sensitivity analysis. We propose the use of the joint modeling approach, i.e., modeling simultaneously the mean and the dispersion of the code outputs using two interlinked generalized linear models (GLMs) or generalized additive models (GAMs). The 'mean model' allows to estimate the sensitivity indices of each scalar model inputs, while the 'dispersion model' allows to derive the total sensitivity index of the functional model inputs. The proposed approach is compared to some classical sensitivity analysis methodologies on an analytical function. Lastly, the new methodology is applied to an industrial computer code that simulates the nuclear fuel irradiation.

  17. WHAT IF (Sensitivity Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iulian N. BUJOREANU

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Sensitivity analysis represents such a well known and deeply analyzed subject that anyone to enter the field feels like not being able to add anything new. Still, there are so many facets to be taken into consideration.The paper introduces the reader to the various ways sensitivity analysis is implemented and the reasons for which it has to be implemented in most analyses in the decision making processes. Risk analysis is of outmost importance in dealing with resource allocation and is presented at the beginning of the paper as the initial cause to implement sensitivity analysis. Different views and approaches are added during the discussion about sensitivity analysis so that the reader develops an as thoroughly as possible opinion on the use and UTILITY of the sensitivity analysis. Finally, a round-up conclusion brings us to the question of the possibility of generating the future and analyzing it before it unfolds so that, when it happens it brings less uncertainty.

  18. Sensitivity analysis of machine-learning models of hydrologic time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Reilly, A. M.

    2017-12-01

    Sensitivity analysis traditionally has been applied to assessing model response to perturbations in model parameters, where the parameters are those model input variables adjusted during calibration. Unlike physics-based models where parameters represent real phenomena, the equivalent of parameters for machine-learning models are simply mathematical "knobs" that are automatically adjusted during training/testing/verification procedures. Thus the challenge of extracting knowledge of hydrologic system functionality from machine-learning models lies in their very nature, leading to the label "black box." Sensitivity analysis of the forcing-response behavior of machine-learning models, however, can provide understanding of how the physical phenomena represented by model inputs affect the physical phenomena represented by model outputs.As part of a previous study, hybrid spectral-decomposition artificial neural network (ANN) models were developed to simulate the observed behavior of hydrologic response contained in multidecadal datasets of lake water level, groundwater level, and spring flow. Model inputs used moving window averages (MWA) to represent various frequencies and frequency-band components of time series of rainfall and groundwater use. Using these forcing time series, the MWA-ANN models were trained to predict time series of lake water level, groundwater level, and spring flow at 51 sites in central Florida, USA. A time series of sensitivities for each MWA-ANN model was produced by perturbing forcing time-series and computing the change in response time-series per unit change in perturbation. Variations in forcing-response sensitivities are evident between types (lake, groundwater level, or spring), spatially (among sites of the same type), and temporally. Two generally common characteristics among sites are more uniform sensitivities to rainfall over time and notable increases in sensitivities to groundwater usage during significant drought periods.

  19. Global sensitivity analysis by polynomial dimensional decomposition

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rahman, Sharif, E-mail: rahman@engineering.uiowa.ed [College of Engineering, The University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52242 (United States)

    2011-07-15

    This paper presents a polynomial dimensional decomposition (PDD) method for global sensitivity analysis of stochastic systems subject to independent random input following arbitrary probability distributions. The method involves Fourier-polynomial expansions of lower-variate component functions of a stochastic response by measure-consistent orthonormal polynomial bases, analytical formulae for calculating the global sensitivity indices in terms of the expansion coefficients, and dimension-reduction integration for estimating the expansion coefficients. Due to identical dimensional structures of PDD and analysis-of-variance decomposition, the proposed method facilitates simple and direct calculation of the global sensitivity indices. Numerical results of the global sensitivity indices computed for smooth systems reveal significantly higher convergence rates of the PDD approximation than those from existing methods, including polynomial chaos expansion, random balance design, state-dependent parameter, improved Sobol's method, and sampling-based methods. However, for non-smooth functions, the convergence properties of the PDD solution deteriorate to a great extent, warranting further improvements. The computational complexity of the PDD method is polynomial, as opposed to exponential, thereby alleviating the curse of dimensionality to some extent.

  20. Semianalytic Design Sensitivity Analysis of Nonlinear Structures With a Commercial Finite Element Package

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Tae Hee; Yoo, Jung Hun; Choi, Hyeong Cheol

    2002-01-01

    A finite element package is often used as a daily design tool for engineering designers in order to analyze and improve the design. The finite element analysis can provide the responses of a system for given design variables. Although finite element analysis can quite well provide the structural behaviors for given design variables, it cannot provide enough information to improve the design such as design sensitivity coefficients. Design sensitivity analysis is an essential step to predict the change in responses due to a change in design variables and to optimize a system with the aid of the gradient-based optimization techniques. To develop a numerical method of design sensitivity analysis, analytical derivatives that are based on analytical differentiation of the continuous or discrete finite element equations are effective but analytical derivatives are difficult because of the lack of internal information of the commercial finite element package such as shape functions. Therefore, design sensitivity analysis outside of the finite element package is necessary for practical application in an industrial setting. In this paper, the semi-analytic method for design sensitivity analysis is used for the development of the design sensitivity module outside of a commercial finite element package of ANSYS. The direct differentiation method is employed to compute the design derivatives of the response and the pseudo-load for design sensitivity analysis is effectively evaluated by using the design variation of the related internal nodal forces. Especially, we suggest an effective method for stress and nonlinear design sensitivity analyses that is independent of the commercial finite element package is also discussed. Numerical examples are illustrated to show the accuracy and efficiency of the developed method and to provide insights for implementation of the suggested method into other commercial finite element packages

  1. SUSD, Sensitivity and Uncertainty in Neutron Transport and Detector Response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Furuta, Lazuo; Kondo, Shunsuke; Oka, Yoshika

    1991-01-01

    1 - Description of program or function: SUSD calculates sensitivity coefficients for one and two-dimensional transport problems. Variance and standard deviation of detector responses or design parameters can be obtained using cross-section covariance matrices. In neutron transport problems, this code is able to perform sensitivity-uncertainty analysis for secondary angular distribution (SAD) or secondary energy distribution (SED). 2 - Method of solution: The first-order perturbation theory is used to obtain sensitivity coefficients. The method described in the distributed report is employed to consider SAD/SED effect. 3 - Restrictions on the complexity of the problem: Variable dimension is used so that there is no limitation in each array size but the total core size

  2. Sensitivity analysis technique for application to deterministic models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ishigami, T.; Cazzoli, E.; Khatib-Rahbar, M.; Unwin, S.D.

    1987-01-01

    The characterization of sever accident source terms for light water reactors should include consideration of uncertainties. An important element of any uncertainty analysis is an evaluation of the sensitivity of the output probability distributions reflecting source term uncertainties to assumptions regarding the input probability distributions. Historically, response surface methods (RSMs) were developed to replace physical models using, for example, regression techniques, with simplified models for example, regression techniques, with simplified models for extensive calculations. The purpose of this paper is to present a new method for sensitivity analysis that does not utilize RSM, but instead relies directly on the results obtained from the original computer code calculations. The merits of this approach are demonstrated by application of the proposed method to the suppression pool aerosol removal code (SPARC), and the results are compared with those obtained by sensitivity analysis with (a) the code itself, (b) a regression model, and (c) Iman's method

  3. Reliability and Sensitivity Analysis for Laminated Composite Plate Using Response Surface Method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Seokje; Kim, Ingul; Jang, Moonho; Kim, Jaeki; Moon, Jungwon

    2013-01-01

    Advanced fiber-reinforced laminated composites are widely used in various fields of engineering to reduce weight. The material property of each ply is well known; specifically, it is known that ply is less reliable than metallic materials and very sensitive to the loading direction. Therefore, it is important to consider this uncertainty in the design of laminated composites. In this study, reliability analysis is conducted using Callosum and Meatball interactions for a laminated composite plate for the case in which the tip deflection is the design requirement and the material property is a random variable. Furthermore, the efficiency and accuracy of the approximation method is identified, and a probabilistic sensitivity analysis is conducted. As a result, we can prove the applicability of the advanced design method for the stabilizer of an underwater vehicle

  4. Reliability and Sensitivity Analysis for Laminated Composite Plate Using Response Surface Method

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Seokje; Kim, Ingul [Chungnam National Univ., Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Jang, Moonho; Kim, Jaeki; Moon, Jungwon [LIG Nex1, Yongin (Korea, Republic of)

    2013-04-15

    Advanced fiber-reinforced laminated composites are widely used in various fields of engineering to reduce weight. The material property of each ply is well known; specifically, it is known that ply is less reliable than metallic materials and very sensitive to the loading direction. Therefore, it is important to consider this uncertainty in the design of laminated composites. In this study, reliability analysis is conducted using Callosum and Meatball interactions for a laminated composite plate for the case in which the tip deflection is the design requirement and the material property is a random variable. Furthermore, the efficiency and accuracy of the approximation method is identified, and a probabilistic sensitivity analysis is conducted. As a result, we can prove the applicability of the advanced design method for the stabilizer of an underwater vehicle.

  5. Sensitivity functions for uncertainty analysis: Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of reactor performance parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Greenspan, E.

    1982-01-01

    This chapter presents the mathematical basis for sensitivity functions, discusses their physical meaning and information they contain, and clarifies a number of issues concerning their application, including the definition of group sensitivities, the selection of sensitivity functions to be included in the analysis, and limitations of sensitivity theory. Examines the theoretical foundation; criticality reset sensitivities; group sensitivities and uncertainties; selection of sensitivities included in the analysis; and other uses and limitations of sensitivity functions. Gives the theoretical formulation of sensitivity functions pertaining to ''as-built'' designs for performance parameters of the form of ratios of linear flux functionals (such as reaction-rate ratios), linear adjoint functionals, bilinear functions (such as reactivity worth ratios), and for reactor reactivity. Offers a consistent procedure for reducing energy-dependent or fine-group sensitivities and uncertainties to broad group sensitivities and uncertainties. Provides illustrations of sensitivity functions as well as references to available compilations of such functions and of total sensitivities. Indicates limitations of sensitivity theory originating from the fact that this theory is based on a first-order perturbation theory

  6. Pain Sensitization Associated with Non-Response Following Physiotherapy in People with Knee Osteoarthritis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Leary, Helen; Smart, Keith M; Moloney, Niamh A; Blake, Catherine; Doody, Catherine M

    2018-05-22

    In knee osteoarthritis (OA) pain sensitization has been linked to a more severe symptomatology, but the prognostic implications of pain sensitivity in people undergoing conservative treatment such as physiotherapy are not established. This study aimed to prospectively investigate the association between features of pain sensitization and clinical outcome (non-response) following guideline-based physiotherapy in people with knee OA. Participants (n=156) with moderate/severe knee OA were recruited from secondary care. All participants completed self-administered questionnaires and underwent quantitative sensory testing (QST) at baseline, thereby establishing subjective and objective measures of pain sensitization. Participants (n=134) were later classified following a physiotherapy intervention, using treatment responder criteria (responder/non-responder). QST data was reduced to a core set of latent variables using principal component analysis. A hierarchical logistic regression model was constructed to investigate if features related to pain sensitization predicted non-response after controlling for other known predictors of poor outcome in knee OA. Higher temporal summation (TS) (OR 2.00, 95% CI 1.23 to 3.27) and lower pressure pain thresholds (PPT) (OR 0.48, 95% CI 0.29 to 0.81) emerged as robust predictors of non-response following physiotherapy, along with a higher comorbidity score. The model demonstrated high sensitivity (87.8%) but modest specificity (52.3%). The independent relationship between pain sensitization and non-response may indicate an underlying explanatory association between neuroplastic changes in nociceptive processing and the maintenance of on-going pain and disability in knee OA pain. These preliminary results suggest interventions targeting pain sensitization may warrant future investigation in this population.

  7. Estimation of regional cutaneous cold sensitivity by analysis of the gasping response.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burke, W E; Mekjavić, I B

    1991-11-01

    Regional cutaneous sensitivity to cooling was assessed in males by separately immersing four discrete skin regions in cold water (15 degrees C) during head-out immersion. The response measured was gasping at the onset of immersion; the gasping response appears to be the result of a nonthermoregulatory neurogenic drive from cutaneous cold receptors. Subjects of similar body proportions wore a neoprene "dry" suit modified to allow exposure to the water of either the arms, upper torso, lower torso, or legs, while keeping the unexposed skin regions thermoneutral. Each subject was immersed to the sternal notch in all four conditions of partial exposure plus one condition of whole body exposure. The five cold water conditions were matched by control immersions in lukewarm (34 degrees C) water, and trials were randomized. The magnitude of the gasping response was determined by mouth occlusion pressure (P0.1). For each subject, P0.1 values for the 1st min of immersion were integrated, and control trial values, although minimal, were subtracted from their cold water counterpart to account for any gasping due to the experimental design. Results were averaged and showed that the highest P0.1 values were elicited from whole body exposure, followed in descending order by exposures of the upper torso, legs, lower torso, and arms. Correction of the P0.1 response for differences in exposed surface area (A) and cooling stimulus (delta T) between regions gave a cold sensitivity index [CSI, P0.1/(A.delta T)] for each region and showed that the index for the upper torso was significantly higher than that for the arms or legs; no significant difference was observed between the indexes for the upper and lower torso.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

  8. Analytic uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of models with input correlations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Yueying; Wang, Qiuping A.; Li, Wei; Cai, Xu

    2018-03-01

    Probabilistic uncertainty analysis is a common means of evaluating mathematical models. In mathematical modeling, the uncertainty in input variables is specified through distribution laws. Its contribution to the uncertainty in model response is usually analyzed by assuming that input variables are independent of each other. However, correlated parameters are often happened in practical applications. In the present paper, an analytic method is built for the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of models in the presence of input correlations. With the method, it is straightforward to identify the importance of the independence and correlations of input variables in determining the model response. This allows one to decide whether or not the input correlations should be considered in practice. Numerical examples suggest the effectiveness and validation of our analytic method in the analysis of general models. A practical application of the method is also proposed to the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of a deterministic HIV model.

  9. Response surfaces and sensitivity analyses for an environmental model of dose calculations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Iooss, Bertrand [CEA Cadarache, DEN/DER/SESI/LCFR, 13108 Saint Paul lez Durance, Cedex (France)]. E-mail: bertrand.iooss@cea.fr; Van Dorpe, Francois [CEA Cadarache, DEN/DTN/SMTM/LMTE, 13108 Saint Paul lez Durance, Cedex (France); Devictor, Nicolas [CEA Cadarache, DEN/DER/SESI/LCFR, 13108 Saint Paul lez Durance, Cedex (France)

    2006-10-15

    A parametric sensitivity analysis is carried out on GASCON, a radiological impact software describing the radionuclides transfer to the man following a chronic gas release of a nuclear facility. An effective dose received by age group can thus be calculated according to a specific radionuclide and to the duration of the release. In this study, we are concerned by 18 output variables, each depending of approximately 50 uncertain input parameters. First, the generation of 1000 Monte-Carlo simulations allows us to calculate correlation coefficients between input parameters and output variables, which give a first overview of important factors. Response surfaces are then constructed in polynomial form, and used to predict system responses at reduced computation time cost; this response surface will be very useful for global sensitivity analysis where thousands of runs are required. Using the response surfaces, we calculate the total sensitivity indices of Sobol by the Monte-Carlo method. We demonstrate the application of this method to one site of study and to one reference group near the nuclear research Center of Cadarache (France), for two radionuclides: iodine 129 and uranium 238. It is thus shown that the most influential parameters are all related to the food chain of the goat's milk, in decreasing order of importance: dose coefficient 'effective ingestion', goat's milk ration of the individuals of the reference group, grass ration of the goat, dry deposition velocity and transfer factor to the goat's milk.

  10. Application of sensitivity analysis for optimized piping support design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tai, K.; Nakatogawa, T.; Hisada, T.; Noguchi, H.; Ichihashi, I.; Ogo, H.

    1993-01-01

    The objective of this study was to see if recent developments in non-linear sensitivity analysis could be applied to the design of nuclear piping systems which use non-linear supports and to develop a practical method of designing such piping systems. In the study presented in this paper, the seismic response of a typical piping system was analyzed using a dynamic non-linear FEM and a sensitivity analysis was carried out. Then optimization for the design of the piping system supports was investigated, selecting the support location and yield load of the non-linear supports (bi-linear model) as main design parameters. It was concluded that the optimized design was a matter of combining overall system reliability with the achievement of an efficient damping effect from the non-linear supports. The analysis also demonstrated sensitivity factors are useful in the planning stage of support design. (author)

  11. Sensitivity analysis of an Advanced Gas-cooled Reactor control rod model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scott, M.; Green, P.L.; O’Driscoll, D.; Worden, K.; Sims, N.D.

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • A model was made of the AGR control rod mechanism. • The aim was to better understand the performance when shutting down the reactor. • The model showed good agreement with test data. • Sensitivity analysis was carried out. • The results demonstrated the robustness of the system. - Abstract: A model has been made of the primary shutdown system of an Advanced Gas-cooled Reactor nuclear power station. The aim of this paper is to explore the use of sensitivity analysis techniques on this model. The two motivations for performing sensitivity analysis are to quantify how much individual uncertain parameters are responsible for the model output uncertainty, and to make predictions about what could happen if one or several parameters were to change. Global sensitivity analysis techniques were used based on Gaussian process emulation; the software package GEM-SA was used to calculate the main effects, the main effect index and the total sensitivity index for each parameter and these were compared to local sensitivity analysis results. The results suggest that the system performance is resistant to adverse changes in several parameters at once.

  12. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in a Probabilistic Safety Analysis level-1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nunez Mc Leod, Jorge E.; Rivera, Selva S.

    1996-01-01

    A methodology for sensitivity and uncertainty analysis, applicable to a Probabilistic Safety Assessment Level I has been presented. The work contents are: correct association of distributions to parameters, importance and qualification of expert opinions, generations of samples according to sample sizes, and study of the relationships among system variables and systems response. A series of statistical-mathematical techniques are recommended along the development of the analysis methodology, as well as different graphical visualization for the control of the study. (author)

  13. Adjoint sensitivity analysis of plasmonic structures using the FDTD method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yu; Ahmed, Osman S; Bakr, Mohamed H

    2014-05-15

    We present an adjoint variable method for estimating the sensitivities of arbitrary responses with respect to the parameters of dispersive discontinuities in nanoplasmonic devices. Our theory is formulated in terms of the electric field components at the vicinity of perturbed discontinuities. The adjoint sensitivities are computed using at most one extra finite-difference time-domain (FDTD) simulation regardless of the number of parameters. Our approach is illustrated through the sensitivity analysis of an add-drop coupler consisting of a square ring resonator between two parallel waveguides. The computed adjoint sensitivities of the scattering parameters are compared with those obtained using the accurate but computationally expensive central finite difference approach.

  14. Sensitivity analysis of reactive ecological dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verdy, Ariane; Caswell, Hal

    2008-08-01

    Ecological systems with asymptotically stable equilibria may exhibit significant transient dynamics following perturbations. In some cases, these transient dynamics include the possibility of excursions away from the equilibrium before the eventual return; systems that exhibit such amplification of perturbations are called reactive. Reactivity is a common property of ecological systems, and the amplification can be large and long-lasting. The transient response of a reactive ecosystem depends on the parameters of the underlying model. To investigate this dependence, we develop sensitivity analyses for indices of transient dynamics (reactivity, the amplification envelope, and the optimal perturbation) in both continuous- and discrete-time models written in matrix form. The sensitivity calculations require expressions, some of them new, for the derivatives of equilibria, eigenvalues, singular values, and singular vectors, obtained using matrix calculus. Sensitivity analysis provides a quantitative framework for investigating the mechanisms leading to transient growth. We apply the methodology to a predator-prey model and a size-structured food web model. The results suggest predator-driven and prey-driven mechanisms for transient amplification resulting from multispecies interactions.

  15. Sensitivity Analysis of Evacuation Speed in Hypothetical NPP Accident by Earthquake

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Sung-yeop; Lim, Ho-Gon [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-10-15

    Effective emergency response in emergency situation of nuclear power plant (NPP) can make consequences be different therefore it is regarded important when establishing an emergency response plan and assessing the risk of hypothetical NPP accident. Situation of emergency response can be totally changed when NPP accident caused by earthquake or tsunami is considered due to the failure of roads and buildings by the disaster. In this study evacuation speed has been focused among above various factors and reasonable evacuation speed in earthquake scenario has been investigated. Finally, sensitivity analysis of evacuation speed in hypothetical NPP accident by earthquake has been performed in this study. Evacuation scenario can be entirely different in the situation of seismic hazard and the sensitivity analysis of evacuation speed in hypothetical NPP accident by earthquake has been performed in this study. Various references were investigated and earthquake evacuation model has been developed considering that evacuees may convert their evacuation method from using a vehicle to walking when they face the difficulty of using a vehicle due to intense traffic jam, failure of buildings and roads, and etc. The population dose within 5 km / 30 km have been found to be increased in earthquake situation due to decreased evacuation speed and become 1.5 - 2 times in the severest earthquake evacuation scenario set up in this study. It is not agreed that using same emergency response model which is used for normal evacuation situations when performing level 3 probabilistic safety assessment for earthquake and tsunami event. Investigation of data and sensitivity analysis for constructing differentiated emergency response model in the event of seismic hazard has been carried out in this study.

  16. Sensitivity Analysis of Evacuation Speed in Hypothetical NPP Accident by Earthquake

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Sung-yeop; Lim, Ho-Gon

    2016-01-01

    Effective emergency response in emergency situation of nuclear power plant (NPP) can make consequences be different therefore it is regarded important when establishing an emergency response plan and assessing the risk of hypothetical NPP accident. Situation of emergency response can be totally changed when NPP accident caused by earthquake or tsunami is considered due to the failure of roads and buildings by the disaster. In this study evacuation speed has been focused among above various factors and reasonable evacuation speed in earthquake scenario has been investigated. Finally, sensitivity analysis of evacuation speed in hypothetical NPP accident by earthquake has been performed in this study. Evacuation scenario can be entirely different in the situation of seismic hazard and the sensitivity analysis of evacuation speed in hypothetical NPP accident by earthquake has been performed in this study. Various references were investigated and earthquake evacuation model has been developed considering that evacuees may convert their evacuation method from using a vehicle to walking when they face the difficulty of using a vehicle due to intense traffic jam, failure of buildings and roads, and etc. The population dose within 5 km / 30 km have been found to be increased in earthquake situation due to decreased evacuation speed and become 1.5 - 2 times in the severest earthquake evacuation scenario set up in this study. It is not agreed that using same emergency response model which is used for normal evacuation situations when performing level 3 probabilistic safety assessment for earthquake and tsunami event. Investigation of data and sensitivity analysis for constructing differentiated emergency response model in the event of seismic hazard has been carried out in this study

  17. MOVES regional level sensitivity analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    The MOVES Regional Level Sensitivity Analysis was conducted to increase understanding of the operations of the MOVES Model in regional emissions analysis and to highlight the following: : the relative sensitivity of selected MOVES Model input paramet...

  18. Is non-response to fluconazole maintenance therapy for recurrent Candida vaginitis related to sensitization to atopic reactions?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donders, Gilbert G G; Grinceviciene, Svitrigaile; Bellen, Gert; Jaeger, Martin; Ten Oever, Jaap; Netea, Mihai G

    2018-04-01

    Is sensitization to atopic reaction related to treatment response of recurrent Candida vulvovaginal (RVVC)? Analysis of ReCiDiF trial data of optimal (OR) and non-responders (NR) to fluconazole maintenance treatment, to explore medical history, physical status, family history, and vaginal immune response for potential sensitization to atopic reaction. Sociodemographic characteristics of 33 NR women were not different from 38 OR. NR had received higher number of different treatments (mean difference 1.6 different treatments (95% CI: 0.20-2.97), P = .03) and had more episodes of disease (P predictive factor for non-response in multivariate analysis with specificity 77.8% and sensitivity 51.6%. Women with RVVC with vulvar excoriation, longer duration of disease, and family history of atopic disease are at increased risk not to respond to maintenance fluconazole treatment. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  19. Sensitivity Analysis of OECD Benchmark Tests in BISON

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Swiler, Laura Painton [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Gamble, Kyle [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Schmidt, Rodney C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Williamson, Richard [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2015-09-01

    This report summarizes a NEAMS (Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation) project focused on sensitivity analysis of a fuels performance benchmark problem. The benchmark problem was defined by the Uncertainty Analysis in Modeling working group of the Nuclear Science Committee, part of the Nuclear Energy Agency of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD ). The benchmark problem involv ed steady - state behavior of a fuel pin in a Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR). The problem was created in the BISON Fuels Performance code. Dakota was used to generate and analyze 300 samples of 17 input parameters defining core boundary conditions, manuf acturing tolerances , and fuel properties. There were 24 responses of interest, including fuel centerline temperatures at a variety of locations and burnup levels, fission gas released, axial elongation of the fuel pin, etc. Pearson and Spearman correlatio n coefficients and Sobol' variance - based indices were used to perform the sensitivity analysis. This report summarizes the process and presents results from this study.

  20. Vantage sensitivity: a framework for individual differences in response to psychological intervention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Villiers, Bernadette; Lionetti, Francesca; Pluess, Michael

    2018-06-01

    People differ significantly in their response to psychological intervention, with some benefitting more from treatment than others. According to the recently proposed theoretical framework of vantage sensitivity, some of this variability may be due to individual differences in environmental sensitivity, the inherent ability to register, and process external stimuli. In this paper, we apply the vantage sensitivity framework to the field of psychiatry and clinical psychology, proposing that some people are more responsive to the positive effects of psychological intervention due to heightened sensitivity. After presenting theoretical frameworks related to environmental sensitivity, we review a selection of recent studies reporting individual differences in the positive response to psychological intervention. A growing number of studies report that some people benefit more from psychological intervention than others as a function of genetic, physiological, and psychological characteristics. These studies support the vantage sensitivity proposition that treatment response is influenced by factors associated with heightened sensitivity to environmental influences. More recently, studies have also shown that sensitivity can be measured with a short questionnaire which appears to predict the response to psychological intervention. Vantage sensitivity is a framework with significant relevance for our understanding of widely observed heterogeneity in treatment response. It suggests that variability in response to treatment is partly influenced by people's differing capacity for environmental sensitivity, which can be measured with a short questionnaire. Application of the vantage sensitivity framework to psychiatry and clinical psychology may improve our knowledge regarding when, how, and for whom interventions work.

  1. Analysis of the Elodea nuttallii transcriptome in response to mercury and cadmium pollution: development of sensitive tools for rapid ecotoxicological testing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Regier, Nicole; Baerlocher, Loïc; Münsterkötter, Martin; Farinelli, Laurent; Cosio, Claudia

    2013-08-06

    Toxic metals polluting aquatic ecosystems are taken up by inhabitants and accumulate in the food web, affecting species at all trophic levels. It is therefore important to have good tools to assess the level of risk represented by toxic metals in the environment. Macrophytes are potential organisms for the identification of metal-responsive biomarkers but are still underrepresented in ecotoxicology. In the present study, we used next-generation sequencing to investigate the transcriptomic response of Elodea nuttallii exposed to enhanced concentrations of Hg and Cd. We de novo assembled more than 60 000 contigs, of which we found 170 to be regulated dose-dependently by Hg and 212 by Cd. Functional analysis showed that these genes were notably related to energy and metal homeostasis. Expression analysis using nCounter of a subset of genes showed that the gene expression pattern was able to assess toxic metal exposure in complex environmental samples and was more sensitive than other end points (e.g., bioaccumulation, photosynthesis, etc.). In conclusion, we demonstrate the feasibility of using gene expression signatures for the assessment of environmental contamination, using an organism without previous genetic information. This is of interest to ecotoxicology in a wider sense given the possibility to develop specific and sensitive bioassays.

  2. Sequential designs for sensitivity analysis of functional inputs in computer experiments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fruth, J.; Roustant, O.; Kuhnt, S.

    2015-01-01

    Computer experiments are nowadays commonly used to analyze industrial processes aiming at achieving a wanted outcome. Sensitivity analysis plays an important role in exploring the actual impact of adjustable parameters on the response variable. In this work we focus on sensitivity analysis of a scalar-valued output of a time-consuming computer code depending on scalar and functional input parameters. We investigate a sequential methodology, based on piecewise constant functions and sequential bifurcation, which is both economical and fully interpretable. The new approach is applied to a sheet metal forming problem in three sequential steps, resulting in new insights into the behavior of the forming process over time. - Highlights: • Sensitivity analysis method for functional and scalar inputs is presented. • We focus on the discovery of most influential parts of the functional domain. • We investigate economical sequential methodology based on piecewise constant functions. • Normalized sensitivity indices are introduced and investigated theoretically. • Successful application to sheet metal forming on two functional inputs

  3. Differential housing and novelty response: Protection and risk from locomotor sensitization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, Erik J; Haddon, Tara N; Saucier, Donald A; Cain, Mary E

    2017-03-01

    High novelty seeking increases the risk for drug experimentation and locomotor sensitization. Locomotor sensitization to psychostimulants is thought to reflect neurological adaptations that promote the transition to compulsive drug taking. Rats reared in enrichment (EC) show less locomotor sensitization when compared to rats reared in isolation (IC) or standard conditions (SC). The current research study was designed to test if novelty response contributed locomotor sensitization and more importantly, if the different housing environments could change the novelty response to protect against the development of locomotor sensitization in both adolescence and adulthood. Experiment 1: rats were tested for their response to novelty using the inescapable novelty test (IEN) and pseudorandomly assigned to enriched (EC), isolated (IC), or standard (SC) housing conditions for 30days. After housing, they were tested with IEN. Rats were then administered amphetamine (0.5mg/kg) or saline and locomotor activity was measured followed by a sensitization test 14days later. Experiment 2: rats were tested in the IEN test early adulthood and given five administrations of amphetamine (0.3mg/kg) or saline and then either stayed in or switched housing environments for 30days. Rats were then re-tested in the IEN test in late adulthood and administered five more injections of their respective treatments and tested for locomotor sensitization. Results indicate that IC and SC increased the response to novelty. EC housing decreased locomotor response to amphetamine and saline, and SC housing increased the locomotor response to amphetamine. Mediation results indicated that the late adult novelty response fully mediates the locomotor response to amphetamine and saline, while the early adulthood novelty response did not. Differential housing changes novelty and amphetamine locomotor response. Novelty response is altered into adulthood and provides evidence that enrichment can be used to reduce

  4. Sensitivity Analysis Without Assumptions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ding, Peng; VanderWeele, Tyler J

    2016-05-01

    Unmeasured confounding may undermine the validity of causal inference with observational studies. Sensitivity analysis provides an attractive way to partially circumvent this issue by assessing the potential influence of unmeasured confounding on causal conclusions. However, previous sensitivity analysis approaches often make strong and untestable assumptions such as having an unmeasured confounder that is binary, or having no interaction between the effects of the exposure and the confounder on the outcome, or having only one unmeasured confounder. Without imposing any assumptions on the unmeasured confounder or confounders, we derive a bounding factor and a sharp inequality such that the sensitivity analysis parameters must satisfy the inequality if an unmeasured confounder is to explain away the observed effect estimate or reduce it to a particular level. Our approach is easy to implement and involves only two sensitivity parameters. Surprisingly, our bounding factor, which makes no simplifying assumptions, is no more conservative than a number of previous sensitivity analysis techniques that do make assumptions. Our new bounding factor implies not only the traditional Cornfield conditions that both the relative risk of the exposure on the confounder and that of the confounder on the outcome must satisfy but also a high threshold that the maximum of these relative risks must satisfy. Furthermore, this new bounding factor can be viewed as a measure of the strength of confounding between the exposure and the outcome induced by a confounder.

  5. Sensitivity analysis of critical experiment with direct perturbation compared to TSUNAMI-3D sensitivity analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barber, A. D.; Busch, R.

    2009-01-01

    The goal of this work is to obtain sensitivities from direct uncertainty analysis calculation and correlate those calculated values with the sensitivities produced from TSUNAMI-3D (Tools for Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis Methodology Implementation in Three Dimensions). A full sensitivity analysis is performed on a critical experiment to determine the overall uncertainty of the experiment. Small perturbation calculations are performed for all known uncertainties to obtain the total uncertainty of the experiment. The results from a critical experiment are only known as well as the geometric and material properties. The goal of this relationship is to simplify the uncertainty quantification process in assessing a critical experiment, while still considering all of the important parameters. (authors)

  6. Sensitivity analysis in multi-parameter probabilistic systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Walker, J.R.

    1987-01-01

    Probabilistic methods involving the use of multi-parameter Monte Carlo analysis can be applied to a wide range of engineering systems. The output from the Monte Carlo analysis is a probabilistic estimate of the system consequence, which can vary spatially and temporally. Sensitivity analysis aims to examine how the output consequence is influenced by the input parameter values. Sensitivity analysis provides the necessary information so that the engineering properties of the system can be optimized. This report details a package of sensitivity analysis techniques that together form an integrated methodology for the sensitivity analysis of probabilistic systems. The techniques have known confidence limits and can be applied to a wide range of engineering problems. The sensitivity analysis methodology is illustrated by performing the sensitivity analysis of the MCROC rock microcracking model

  7. Enhanced sensitivity in detection of antiviral antibody responses using biotinylation of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) capsids.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenney, Mary; Waters, Ryan A; Rieder, Elizabeth; Pega, Juan; Perez-Filguera, Mariano; Golde, William T

    2017-11-01

    Analysis of the immune response to infection of livestock by foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) is most often reported as the serum antibody response to the virus. While measurement of neutralizing antibody has been sensitive and specific, measurements of the quality of the antibody response are less robust. Determining the immunoglobulin (Ig) isotype of the serum antibody response provides a deeper understanding of the biology of the response and more sensitive methods for these assays will facilitate analyses of B cell mediated immunity. We tested the hypothesis that using the virus as the molecular probe could be achieved by adding tags to the surface of the FMDV capsid, and that would enhance sensitivity in assays for anti-FMDV antibody responses. The use of a FLAG-tagged virus in these assays failed to yield improvement whereas chemically biotinylating the virus capsid resulted in significant enhancement of the signal. Here we describe methods using biotinylated virus for measuring anti-viral antibody in serum and antibody secreting cells (ASCs) in blood that are sensitive and specific. Finally, we describe using the biotinylated virus in flow cytometry where such assays should greatly enhance the analysis of anti-virus antibody producing B cells, allowing the investigator to focus on only the FMDV specific B cells when analyzing the development of the B cell response to either infection or vaccination. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  8. Global optimization and sensitivity analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cacuci, D.G.

    1990-01-01

    A new direction for the analysis of nonlinear models of nuclear systems is suggested to overcome fundamental limitations of sensitivity analysis and optimization methods currently prevalent in nuclear engineering usage. This direction is toward a global analysis of the behavior of the respective system as its design parameters are allowed to vary over their respective design ranges. Presented is a methodology for global analysis that unifies and extends the current scopes of sensitivity analysis and optimization by identifying all the critical points (maxima, minima) and solution bifurcation points together with corresponding sensitivities at any design point of interest. The potential applicability of this methodology is illustrated with test problems involving multiple critical points and bifurcations and comprising both equality and inequality constraints

  9. Uncertainties propagation and global sensitivity analysis of the frequency response function of piezoelectric energy harvesters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruiz, Rafael O.; Meruane, Viviana

    2017-06-01

    The goal of this work is to describe a framework to propagate uncertainties in piezoelectric energy harvesters (PEHs). These uncertainties are related to the incomplete knowledge of the model parameters. The framework presented could be employed to conduct prior robust stochastic predictions. The prior analysis assumes a known probability density function for the uncertain variables and propagates the uncertainties to the output voltage. The framework is particularized to evaluate the behavior of the frequency response functions (FRFs) in PEHs, while its implementation is illustrated by the use of different unimorph and bimorph PEHs subjected to different scenarios: free of uncertainties, common uncertainties, and uncertainties as a product of imperfect clamping. The common variability associated with the PEH parameters are tabulated and reported. A global sensitivity analysis is conducted to identify the Sobol indices. Results indicate that the elastic modulus, density, and thickness of the piezoelectric layer are the most relevant parameters of the output variability. The importance of including the model parameter uncertainties in the estimation of the FRFs is revealed. In this sense, the present framework constitutes a powerful tool in the robust design and prediction of PEH performance.

  10. Methodology for sensitivity analysis, approximate analysis, and design optimization in CFD for multidisciplinary applications. [computational fluid dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Arthur C., III; Hou, Gene W.

    1992-01-01

    Fundamental equations of aerodynamic sensitivity analysis and approximate analysis for the two dimensional thin layer Navier-Stokes equations are reviewed, and special boundary condition considerations necessary to apply these equations to isolated lifting airfoils on 'C' and 'O' meshes are discussed in detail. An efficient strategy which is based on the finite element method and an elastic membrane representation of the computational domain is successfully tested, which circumvents the costly 'brute force' method of obtaining grid sensitivity derivatives, and is also useful in mesh regeneration. The issue of turbulence modeling is addressed in a preliminary study. Aerodynamic shape sensitivity derivatives are efficiently calculated, and their accuracy is validated on two viscous test problems, including: (1) internal flow through a double throat nozzle, and (2) external flow over a NACA 4-digit airfoil. An automated aerodynamic design optimization strategy is outlined which includes the use of a design optimization program, an aerodynamic flow analysis code, an aerodynamic sensitivity and approximate analysis code, and a mesh regeneration and grid sensitivity analysis code. Application of the optimization methodology to the two test problems in each case resulted in a new design having a significantly improved performance in the aerodynamic response of interest.

  11. Chemical kinetic functional sensitivity analysis: Elementary sensitivities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Demiralp, M.; Rabitz, H.

    1981-01-01

    Sensitivity analysis is considered for kinetics problems defined in the space--time domain. This extends an earlier temporal Green's function method to handle calculations of elementary functional sensitivities deltau/sub i//deltaα/sub j/ where u/sub i/ is the ith species concentration and α/sub j/ is the jth system parameter. The system parameters include rate constants, diffusion coefficients, initial conditions, boundary conditions, or any other well-defined variables in the kinetic equations. These parameters are generally considered to be functions of position and/or time. Derivation of the governing equations for the sensitivities and the Green's funciton are presented. The physical interpretation of the Green's function and sensitivities is given along with a discussion of the relation of this work to earlier research

  12. Parameter identification and global sensitivity analysis of Xin'anjiang model using meta-modeling approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiao-meng Song

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Parameter identification, model calibration, and uncertainty quantification are important steps in the model-building process, and are necessary for obtaining credible results and valuable information. Sensitivity analysis of hydrological model is a key step in model uncertainty quantification, which can identify the dominant parameters, reduce the model calibration uncertainty, and enhance the model optimization efficiency. There are, however, some shortcomings in classical approaches, including the long duration of time and high computation cost required to quantitatively assess the sensitivity of a multiple-parameter hydrological model. For this reason, a two-step statistical evaluation framework using global techniques is presented. It is based on (1 a screening method (Morris for qualitative ranking of parameters, and (2 a variance-based method integrated with a meta-model for quantitative sensitivity analysis, i.e., the Sobol method integrated with the response surface model (RSMSobol. First, the Morris screening method was used to qualitatively identify the parameters' sensitivity, and then ten parameters were selected to quantify the sensitivity indices. Subsequently, the RSMSobol method was used to quantify the sensitivity, i.e., the first-order and total sensitivity indices based on the response surface model (RSM were calculated. The RSMSobol method can not only quantify the sensitivity, but also reduce the computational cost, with good accuracy compared to the classical approaches. This approach will be effective and reliable in the global sensitivity analysis of a complex large-scale distributed hydrological model.

  13. Addressing Curse of Dimensionality in Sensitivity Analysis: How Can We Handle High-Dimensional Problems?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Safaei, S.; Haghnegahdar, A.; Razavi, S.

    2016-12-01

    Complex environmental models are now the primary tool to inform decision makers for the current or future management of environmental resources under the climate and environmental changes. These complex models often contain a large number of parameters that need to be determined by a computationally intensive calibration procedure. Sensitivity analysis (SA) is a very useful tool that not only allows for understanding the model behavior, but also helps in reducing the number of calibration parameters by identifying unimportant ones. The issue is that most global sensitivity techniques are highly computationally demanding themselves for generating robust and stable sensitivity metrics over the entire model response surface. Recently, a novel global sensitivity analysis method, Variogram Analysis of Response Surfaces (VARS), is introduced that can efficiently provide a comprehensive assessment of global sensitivity using the Variogram concept. In this work, we aim to evaluate the effectiveness of this highly efficient GSA method in saving computational burden, when applied to systems with extra-large number of input factors ( 100). We use a test function and a hydrological modelling case study to demonstrate the capability of VARS method in reducing problem dimensionality by identifying important vs unimportant input factors.

  14. Analysis of Methanol Sensitivity on SnO2-ZnO Nanocomposite

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bassey, Enobong E.; Sallis, Philip; Prasad, Krishnamachar

    This research reports on the sensing behavior of a nanocomposite of tin dioxide (SnO2) and zinc oxide (ZnO). SnO2-ZnO nanocomposites were fabricated into sensor devices by the radio frequency sputtering method, and used for the characterization of the sensitivity behavior of methanol vapor. The sensor devices were subjected to methanol concentration of 200 ppm at operating temperatures of 150, 250 and 350 °C. A fractional difference model was used to normalize the sensor response, and determine the sensitivity of methanol on the sensor. Response analysis of the SnO2-ZnO sensors to the methanol was most sensitive at 350 °C, followed by 250 and 150 °C. Supported by the morphology (FE-SEM, AFM) analyses of the thin films, the sensitivity behavior confirmed that the nanoparticles of coupled SnO2 and ZnO nanocomposites can promote the charge transportation, and be used to fine-tune the sensitivity of methanol and sensor selectivity to a desired target gas.

  15. Development of Visible Light-Responsive Sensitized Photocatalysts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Donghua Pei

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents a review of studies about the visible-light-promoted photodegradation of the contaminants and energy conversion with sensitized photocatalysts. Herein we studied mechanism, physical properties, and synergism effect of the sensitized photocatalysts as well as the method for enhancing the photosensitized effect. According to the reported studies in the literature, inorganic sensitizers, organic dyes, and coordination metal complexes were very effective sensitizers that were studied mostly, of which organic dyes photosensitization is the most widely studied modified method. Photosensitization is an important way to extend the excitation wavelength to the visible range, and therefore sensitized photocatalysts play an important role in the development of visible light-responsive photocatalysts for future industrialized applications. This paper mainly describes the types, modification, photocatalytic performance, application, and the developments of photosensitization for environmental application.

  16. The implication of sensitivity analysis on the safety and delayed-neutron parameters for fast breeder reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Onega, R.J.; Florian, R.J.

    1983-01-01

    The delayed-neutron energy spectra for LMFBRs are not as well known as those for LWRs. These spectra are necessary for kinetics calculations which play an important role in safety and accident analyses. A sensitivity analysis was performed to study the response of the reactor power and power density to uncertainties in the delayed-neutron spectra during a rod-ejection accident. The accidents studied were central control-rod-ejections with ejection times of 2,10 and 30s. A two-energy group and two-precursor group model was formulated for the International Nuclear Fuel Cycle Evaluation (INFCE) reference design MOX-fueled LMFBR. The sensitivity analysis is based on the use of adjoints so that it is not necessary to repeatedly solve the governing (kinetics) equations to obtain the sensitivity derivatives. This is of particular importance when large systems of equations are used. The power and power-density responses were found to be most sensitive to uncertainties in the spectrum of the second delayed-neutron precursor group, resulting from the fission of 238 U, producing neutrons in the first energy group. It was found, for example, that for a rod-ejection time of 30s, and uncertainty of 7.2% in the fast components of the spectra resulted in a 24% uncertainty in the predicted power and power density. These responses were recalculated by repeatedly solving the kinetics equations. The maximum discrepancy between the recalculated and the sensitivity analysis response was only 1.6%. The results of the sensitivity analysis indicate the need for improved delayed-neutron spectral data in order to reduce the uncertainties in accident analyses. (author)

  17. Analysis of asymmetric resonance response of thermally excited silicon micro-cantilevers for mass-sensitive nanoparticle detection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertke, Maik; Hamdana, Gerry; Wu, Wenze; Suryo Wasisto, Hutomo; Uhde, Erik; Peiner, Erwin

    2017-06-01

    In this paper, the asymmetric resonance frequency (f 0) responses of thermally in-plane excited silicon cantilevers for a pocket-sized, cantilever-based airborne nanoparticle detector (Cantor) are analysed. By measuring the shift of f 0 caused by the deposition of nanoparticles (NPs), the cantilevers are used as a microbalance. The cantilever sensors are low cost manufactured from silicon by bulk-micromachining techniques and contain an integrated p-type heating actuator and a sensing piezoresistive Wheatstone bridge. f 0 is tracked by a homemade phase-locked loop (PPL) for real-time measurements. To optimize the sensor performance, a new cantilever geometry was designed, fabricated and characterized by its frequency responses. The most significant characterisation parameters of our application are f 0 and the quality factor (Q), which have high influences on sensitivity and efficiency of the NP detector. Regarding the asymmetric resonance signal, a novel fitting function based on the Fano resonance replacing the conventionally used function of the simple harmonic oscillator and a method to calculate Q by its fitting parameters were developed for a quantitative evaluation. To obtain a better understanding of the resonance behaviours, we analysed the origin of the asymmetric line shapes. Therefore, we compared the frequency response of the on-chip thermal excitation with an external excitation using an in-plane piezo actuator. In correspondence to the Fano effect, we could reconstruct the measured resonance curves by coupling two signals with constant amplitude and the expected signal of the cantilever, respectively. Moreover, the phase of the measurement signal can be analysed by this method, which is important to understand the locking process of the PLL circuit. Besides the frequency analysis, experimental results and calibration measurements with different particle types are presented. Using the described analysis method, decent results to optimize a next

  18. Estimation of Sensitive Proportion by Randomized Response Data in Successive Sampling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bo Yu

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper considers the problem of estimation for binomial proportions of sensitive or stigmatizing attributes in the population of interest. Randomized response techniques are suggested for protecting the privacy of respondents and reducing the response bias while eliciting information on sensitive attributes. In many sensitive question surveys, the same population is often sampled repeatedly on each occasion. In this paper, we apply successive sampling scheme to improve the estimation of the sensitive proportion on current occasion.

  19. Global sensitivity analysis using a Gaussian Radial Basis Function metamodel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Zeping; Wang, Donghui; Okolo N, Patrick; Hu, Fan; Zhang, Weihua

    2016-01-01

    Sensitivity analysis plays an important role in exploring the actual impact of adjustable parameters on response variables. Amongst the wide range of documented studies on sensitivity measures and analysis, Sobol' indices have received greater portion of attention due to the fact that they can provide accurate information for most models. In this paper, a novel analytical expression to compute the Sobol' indices is derived by introducing a method which uses the Gaussian Radial Basis Function to build metamodels of computationally expensive computer codes. Performance of the proposed method is validated against various analytical functions and also a structural simulation scenario. Results demonstrate that the proposed method is an efficient approach, requiring a computational cost of one to two orders of magnitude less when compared to the traditional Quasi Monte Carlo-based evaluation of Sobol' indices. - Highlights: • RBF based sensitivity analysis method is proposed. • Sobol' decomposition of Gaussian RBF metamodel is obtained. • Sobol' indices of Gaussian RBF metamodel are derived based on the decomposition. • The efficiency of proposed method is validated by some numerical examples.

  20. Sensitivity analysis of reactor safety parameters with automated adjoint function generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kallfelz, J.M.; Horwedel, J.E.; Worley, B.A.

    1992-01-01

    A project at the Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI) involves the development of simulation models for the transient analysis of the reactors in Switzerland (STARS). This project, funded in part by the Swiss Federal Nuclear Safety Inspectorate, also involves the calculation and evaluation of certain transients for Swiss light water reactors (LWRs). For best-estimate analyses, a key element in quantifying reactor safety margins is uncertainty evaluation to determine the uncertainty in calculated integral values (responses) caused by modeling, calculational methodology, and input data (parameters). The work reported in this paper is a joint PSI/Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) application to a core transient analysis code of an ORNL software system for automated sensitivity analysis. The Gradient-Enhanced Software System (GRESS) is a software package that can in principle enhance any code so that it can calculate the sensitivity (derivative) to input parameters of any integral value (response) calculated in the original code. The studies reported are the first application of the GRESS capability to core neutronics and safety codes

  1. Global sensitivity analysis using polynomial chaos expansions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sudret, Bruno

    2008-01-01

    Global sensitivity analysis (SA) aims at quantifying the respective effects of input random variables (or combinations thereof) onto the variance of the response of a physical or mathematical model. Among the abundant literature on sensitivity measures, the Sobol' indices have received much attention since they provide accurate information for most models. The paper introduces generalized polynomial chaos expansions (PCE) to build surrogate models that allow one to compute the Sobol' indices analytically as a post-processing of the PCE coefficients. Thus the computational cost of the sensitivity indices practically reduces to that of estimating the PCE coefficients. An original non intrusive regression-based approach is proposed, together with an experimental design of minimal size. Various application examples illustrate the approach, both from the field of global SA (i.e. well-known benchmark problems) and from the field of stochastic mechanics. The proposed method gives accurate results for various examples that involve up to eight input random variables, at a computational cost which is 2-3 orders of magnitude smaller than the traditional Monte Carlo-based evaluation of the Sobol' indices

  2. Global sensitivity analysis using polynomial chaos expansions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sudret, Bruno [Electricite de France, R and D Division, Site des Renardieres, F 77818 Moret-sur-Loing Cedex (France)], E-mail: bruno.sudret@edf.fr

    2008-07-15

    Global sensitivity analysis (SA) aims at quantifying the respective effects of input random variables (or combinations thereof) onto the variance of the response of a physical or mathematical model. Among the abundant literature on sensitivity measures, the Sobol' indices have received much attention since they provide accurate information for most models. The paper introduces generalized polynomial chaos expansions (PCE) to build surrogate models that allow one to compute the Sobol' indices analytically as a post-processing of the PCE coefficients. Thus the computational cost of the sensitivity indices practically reduces to that of estimating the PCE coefficients. An original non intrusive regression-based approach is proposed, together with an experimental design of minimal size. Various application examples illustrate the approach, both from the field of global SA (i.e. well-known benchmark problems) and from the field of stochastic mechanics. The proposed method gives accurate results for various examples that involve up to eight input random variables, at a computational cost which is 2-3 orders of magnitude smaller than the traditional Monte Carlo-based evaluation of the Sobol' indices.

  3. (U) Second-Order Sensitivity Analysis of Uncollided Particle Contributions to Radiation Detector Responses Using Ray-Tracing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Favorite, Jeffrey A. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2017-11-30

    The Second-Level Adjoint Sensitivity System (2nd-LASS) that yields the second-order sensitivities of a response of uncollided particles with respect to isotope densities, cross sections, and source emission rates is derived in Refs. 1 and 2. In Ref. 2, we solved problems for the uncollided leakage from a homogeneous sphere and a multiregion cylinder using the PARTISN multigroup discrete-ordinates code. In this memo, we derive solutions of the 2nd-LASS for the particular case when the response is a flux or partial current density computed at a single point on the boundary, and the inner products are computed using ray-tracing. Both the PARTISN approach and the ray-tracing approach are implemented in a computer code, SENSPG. The next section of this report presents the equations of the 1st- and 2nd-LASS for uncollided particles and the first- and second-order sensitivities that use the solutions of the 1st- and 2nd-LASS. Section III presents solutions of the 1st- and 2nd-LASS equations for the case of ray-tracing from a detector point. Section IV presents specific solutions of the 2nd-LASS and derives the ray-trace form of the inner products needed for second-order sensitivities. Numerical results for the total leakage from a homogeneous sphere are presented in Sec. V and for the leakage from one side of a two-region slab in Sec. VI. Section VII is a summary and conclusions.

  4. Enhanced sensitivity in detection of antiviral antibody responses using biotinylation of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) capsids

    Science.gov (United States)

    Analysis of the immune response to infection of livestock by foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) is most often reported as the serum antibody response to the virus. While measurement of neutralizing antibody has been sensitive and specific, measurements of the quality of the antibody response are le...

  5. Stand-alone core sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of ALFRED from Monte Carlo simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pérez-Valseca, A.-D.; Espinosa-Paredes, G.; François, J.L.; Vázquez Rodríguez, A.; Martín-del-Campo, C.

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • Methodology based on Monte Carlo simulation. • Sensitivity analysis of Lead Fast Reactor (LFR). • Uncertainty and regression analysis of LFR. • 10% change in the core inlet flow, the response in thermal power change is 0.58%. • 2.5% change in the inlet lead temperature the response is 1.87% in power. - Abstract: The aim of this paper is the sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of a Lead-Cooled Fast Reactor (LFR) based on Monte Carlo simulation of sizes up to 2000. The methodology developed in this work considers the uncertainty of sensitivities and uncertainty of output variables due to a single-input-variable variation. The Advanced Lead fast Reactor European Demonstrator (ALFRED) is analyzed to determine the behavior of the essential parameters due to effects of mass flow and temperature of liquid lead. The ALFRED core mathematical model developed in this work is fully transient, which takes into account the heat transfer in an annular fuel pellet design, the thermo-fluid in the core, and the neutronic processes, which are modeled with point kinetic with feedback fuel temperature and expansion effects. The sensitivity evaluated in terms of the relative standard deviation (RSD) showed that for 10% change in the core inlet flow, the response in thermal power change is 0.58%, and for 2.5% change in the inlet lead temperature is 1.87%. The regression analysis with mass flow rate as the predictor variable showed statistically valid cubic correlations for neutron flux and linear relationship neutron flux as a function of the lead temperature. No statistically valid correlation was observed for the reactivity as a function of the mass flow rate and for the lead temperature. These correlations are useful for the study, analysis, and design of any LFR.

  6. Analysis of sensitive questions across cultures : An application of multigroup item randomized response theory to sexual attitudes and behavior

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Jong, M.G.; Pieters, R.; Stremersch, S.

    2012-01-01

    Answers to sensitive questions are prone to social desirability bias. If not properly addressed, the validity of the research can be suspect. This article presents multigroup item randomized response theory (MIRRT) to measure self-reported sensitive topics across cultures. The method was

  7. Interference and Sensitivity Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    VanderWeele, Tyler J; Tchetgen Tchetgen, Eric J; Halloran, M Elizabeth

    2014-11-01

    Causal inference with interference is a rapidly growing area. The literature has begun to relax the "no-interference" assumption that the treatment received by one individual does not affect the outcomes of other individuals. In this paper we briefly review the literature on causal inference in the presence of interference when treatments have been randomized. We then consider settings in which causal effects in the presence of interference are not identified, either because randomization alone does not suffice for identification, or because treatment is not randomized and there may be unmeasured confounders of the treatment-outcome relationship. We develop sensitivity analysis techniques for these settings. We describe several sensitivity analysis techniques for the infectiousness effect which, in a vaccine trial, captures the effect of the vaccine of one person on protecting a second person from infection even if the first is infected. We also develop two sensitivity analysis techniques for causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding which generalize analogous techniques when interference is absent. These two techniques for unmeasured confounding are compared and contrasted.

  8. Multi-scale Modeling of the Impact Response of a Strain Rate Sensitive High-Manganese Austenitic Steel

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Orkun eÖnal

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available A multi-scale modeling approach was applied to predict the impact response of a strain rate sensitive high-manganese austenitic steel. The roles of texture, geometry and strain rate sensitivity were successfully taken into account all at once by coupling crystal plasticity and finite element (FE analysis. Specifically, crystal plasticity was utilized to obtain the multi-axial flow rule at different strain rates based on the experimental deformation response under uniaxial tensile loading. The equivalent stress – equivalent strain response was then incorporated into the FE model for the sake of a more representative hardening rule under impact loading. The current results demonstrate that reliable predictions can be obtained by proper coupling of crystal plasticity and FE analysis even if the experimental flow rule of the material is acquired under uniaxial loading and at moderate strain rates that are significantly slower than those attained during impact loading. Furthermore, the current findings also demonstrate the need for an experiment-based multi-scale modeling approach for the sake of reliable predictions of the impact response.

  9. Dynamical mechanisms for sensitive response of aperiodic firing cells to external stimulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xie Yong; Xu Jianxue; Hu Sanjue; Kang Yanmei; Yang Hongjun; Duan Yubin

    2004-01-01

    An interesting phenomenon that aperiodic firing neurons have a higher sensitivity to drugs than periodic firing neurons have been reported for the chronically compressed dorsal root ganglion neurons in rats. In this study, the dynamical mechanisms for such a phenomenon are uncovered from the viewpoint of dynamical systems theory. We use the Rose-Hindmarsh neuron model to illustrate our opinions. Periodic orbit theory is introduced to characterize the dynamical behavior of aperiodic firing neurons. It is considered that bifurcations, crises and sensitive dependence of chaotic motions on control parameters can be the underlying mechanisms. And then, a similar analysis is applied to the modified Chay model describing the firing behavior of pancreatic beta cells. The same dynamical mechanisms can be obtained underlying that aperiodic firing cells are more sensitive to external stimulation than periodic firing ones. As a result, we conjecture that sensitive response of aperiodic firing cells to external stimulation is a universal property of excitable cells

  10. Evaluation of different in vitro assays of inherent sensitivity as predictors of radiotherapy response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schwartz, J.L.; Chicago Univ., IL; Beckett, M.A.; Mustafi, R.; Weichselbaum, R.R.; Vaughan, A.T.M.

    1991-01-01

    The inherent sensitivity of cells within a tumor plays an important role in the response of the tumor to radiotherapy. Clonogenic assays show that cells established from in-field radiotherapy failures are significantly more resistant to radiation than cell lines established from pre-treatment samples. Clonogenic assays fail to predict tumor response to radiotherapy, however. The failure might be due to the small sample size in this study, or the complicating factors of staging, surgery, and chemotherapy, and/or in vivo selection by radiotherapy for resistant tumor cells. In vitro selection for resistant cell lines does not appear to be a complicating factor. Nonclonogenic assays such as those that measure DNA strand break rejoining rates (filter elution, pulse-field gel electrophoresis) or chromosome structure (flow cytometric analysis) show promise as alternative rapid assays of radiation sensitivity and possibly tumor response. 16 refs., 2 figs

  11. Meta-analysis of the relative sensitivity of semi-natural vegetation species to ozone

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hayes, F.; Jones, M.L.M.; Mills, G.; Ashmore, M.

    2007-01-01

    This study identified 83 species from existing publications suitable for inclusion in a database of sensitivity of species to ozone (OZOVEG database). An index, the relative sensitivity to ozone, was calculated for each species based on changes in biomass in order to test for species traits associated with ozone sensitivity. Meta-analysis of the ozone sensitivity data showed a wide inter-specific range in response to ozone. Some relationships in comparison to plant physiological and ecological characteristics were identified. Plants of the therophyte lifeform were particularly sensitive to ozone. Species with higher mature leaf N concentration were more sensitive to ozone than those with lower leaf N concentration. Some relationships between relative sensitivity to ozone and Ellenberg habitat requirements were also identified. In contrast, no relationships between relative sensitivity to ozone and mature leaf P concentration, Grime's CSR strategy, leaf longevity, flowering season, stomatal density and maximum altitude were found. The relative sensitivity of species and relationships with plant characteristics identified in this study could be used to predict sensitivity to ozone of untested species and communities. - Meta-analysis of the relative sensitivity of semi-natural vegetation species to ozone showed some relationships with physiological and ecological characteristics

  12. Sensitivity Analysis of Vagus Nerve Stimulation Parameters on Acute Cardiac Autonomic Responses: Chronotropic, Inotropic and Dromotropic Effects.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Ojeda

    Full Text Available Although the therapeutic effects of Vagus Nerve Stimulation (VNS have been recognized in pre-clinical and pilot clinical studies, the effect of different stimulation configurations on the cardiovascular response is still an open question, especially in the case of VNS delivered synchronously with cardiac activity. In this paper, we propose a formal mathematical methodology to analyze the acute cardiac response to different VNS configurations, jointly considering the chronotropic, dromotropic and inotropic cardiac effects. A latin hypercube sampling method was chosen to design a uniform experimental plan, composed of 75 different VNS configurations, with different values for the main parameters (current amplitude, number of delivered pulses, pulse width, interpulse period and the delay between the detected cardiac event and VNS onset. These VNS configurations were applied to 6 healthy, anesthetized sheep, while acquiring the associated cardiovascular response. Unobserved VNS configurations were estimated using a Gaussian process regression (GPR model. In order to quantitatively analyze the effect of each parameter and their combinations on the cardiac response, the Sobol sensitivity method was applied to the obtained GPR model and inter-individual sensitivity markers were estimated using a bootstrap approach. Results highlight the dominant effect of pulse current, pulse width and number of pulses, which explain respectively 49.4%, 19.7% and 6.0% of the mean global cardiovascular variability provoked by VNS. More interestingly, results also quantify the effect of the interactions between VNS parameters. In particular, the interactions between current and pulse width provoke higher cardiac effects than the changes on the number of pulses alone (between 6 and 25% of the variability. Although the sensitivity of individual VNS parameters seems similar for chronotropic, dromotropic and inotropic responses, the interacting effects of VNS parameters

  13. Vantage sensitivity: individual differences in response to positive experiences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pluess, Michael; Belsky, Jay

    2013-07-01

    The notion that some people are more vulnerable to adversity as a function of inherent risk characteristics is widely embraced in most fields of psychology. This is reflected in the popularity of the diathesis-stress framework, which has received a vast amount of empirical support over the years. Much less effort has been directed toward the investigation of endogenous factors associated with variability in response to positive influences. One reason for the failure to investigate individual differences in response to positive experiences as a function of endogenous factors may be the absence of adequate theoretical frameworks. According to the differential-susceptibility hypothesis, individuals generally vary in their developmental plasticity regardless of whether they are exposed to negative or positive influences--a notion derived from evolutionary reasoning. On the basis of this now well-supported proposition, we advance herein the new concept of vantage sensitivity, reflecting variation in response to exclusively positive experiences as a function of individual endogenous characteristics. After distinguishing vantage sensitivity from theoretically related concepts of differential-susceptibility and resilience, we review some recent empirical evidence for vantage sensitivity featuring behavioral, physiological, and genetic factors as moderators of a wide range of positive experiences ranging from family environment and psychotherapy to educational intervention. Thereafter, we discuss genetic and environmental factors contributing to individual differences in vantage sensitivity, potential mechanisms underlying vantage sensitivity, and practical implications. 2013 APA, all rights reserved

  14. Global sensitivity analysis for fuzzy inputs based on the decomposition of fuzzy output entropy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Yan; Lu, Zhenzhou; Zhou, Yicheng

    2018-06-01

    To analyse the component of fuzzy output entropy, a decomposition method of fuzzy output entropy is first presented. After the decomposition of fuzzy output entropy, the total fuzzy output entropy can be expressed as the sum of the component fuzzy entropy contributed by fuzzy inputs. Based on the decomposition of fuzzy output entropy, a new global sensitivity analysis model is established for measuring the effects of uncertainties of fuzzy inputs on the output. The global sensitivity analysis model can not only tell the importance of fuzzy inputs but also simultaneously reflect the structural composition of the response function to a certain degree. Several examples illustrate the validity of the proposed global sensitivity analysis, which is a significant reference in engineering design and optimization of structural systems.

  15. Object-sensitive Type Analysis of PHP

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van der Hoek, Henk Erik; Hage, J

    2015-01-01

    In this paper we develop an object-sensitive type analysis for PHP, based on an extension of the notion of monotone frameworks to deal with the dynamic aspects of PHP, and following the framework of Smaragdakis et al. for object-sensitive analysis. We consider a number of instantiations of the

  16. Mixed kernel function support vector regression for global sensitivity analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Kai; Lu, Zhenzhou; Wei, Yuhao; Shi, Yan; Zhou, Yicheng

    2017-11-01

    Global sensitivity analysis (GSA) plays an important role in exploring the respective effects of input variables on an assigned output response. Amongst the wide sensitivity analyses in literature, the Sobol indices have attracted much attention since they can provide accurate information for most models. In this paper, a mixed kernel function (MKF) based support vector regression (SVR) model is employed to evaluate the Sobol indices at low computational cost. By the proposed derivation, the estimation of the Sobol indices can be obtained by post-processing the coefficients of the SVR meta-model. The MKF is constituted by the orthogonal polynomials kernel function and Gaussian radial basis kernel function, thus the MKF possesses both the global characteristic advantage of the polynomials kernel function and the local characteristic advantage of the Gaussian radial basis kernel function. The proposed approach is suitable for high-dimensional and non-linear problems. Performance of the proposed approach is validated by various analytical functions and compared with the popular polynomial chaos expansion (PCE). Results demonstrate that the proposed approach is an efficient method for global sensitivity analysis.

  17. Sensitivity of the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS) in Detecting Treatment Effects via Network Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esfahlani, Farnaz Zamani; Sayama, Hiroki; Visser, Katherine Frost; Strauss, Gregory P

    2017-12-01

    Objective: The Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale is a primary outcome measure in clinical trials examining the efficacy of antipsychotic medications. Although the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale has demonstrated sensitivity as a measure of treatment change in studies using traditional univariate statistical approaches, its sensitivity to detecting network-level changes in dynamic relationships among symptoms has yet to be demonstrated using more sophisticated multivariate analyses. In the current study, we examined the sensitivity of the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale to detecting antipsychotic treatment effects as revealed through network analysis. Design: Participants included 1,049 individuals diagnosed with psychotic disorders from the Phase I portion of the Clinical Antipsychotic Trials of Intervention Effectiveness (CATIE) study. Of these participants, 733 were clinically determined to be treatment-responsive and 316 were found to be treatment-resistant. Item level data from the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale were submitted to network analysis, and macroscopic, mesoscopic, and microscopic network properties were evaluated for the treatment-responsive and treatment-resistant groups at baseline and post-phase I antipsychotic treatment. Results: Network analysis indicated that treatment-responsive patients had more densely connected symptom networks after antipsychotic treatment than did treatment-responsive patients at baseline, and that symptom centralities increased following treatment. In contrast, symptom networks of treatment-resistant patients behaved more randomly before and after treatment. Conclusions: These results suggest that the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale is sensitive to detecting treatment effects as revealed through network analysis. Its findings also provide compelling new evidence that strongly interconnected symptom networks confer an overall greater probability of treatment responsiveness in patients with

  18. Multitarget global sensitivity analysis of n-butanol combustion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Dingyu D Y; Davis, Michael J; Skodje, Rex T

    2013-05-02

    A model for the combustion of butanol is studied using a recently developed theoretical method for the systematic improvement of the kinetic mechanism. The butanol mechanism includes 1446 reactions, and we demonstrate that it is straightforward and computationally feasible to implement a full global sensitivity analysis incorporating all the reactions. In addition, we extend our previous analysis of ignition-delay targets to include species targets. The combination of species and ignition targets leads to multitarget global sensitivity analysis, which allows for a more complete mechanism validation procedure than we previously implemented. The inclusion of species sensitivity analysis allows for a direct comparison between reaction pathway analysis and global sensitivity analysis.

  19. Optimizing human activity patterns using global sensitivity analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fairchild, Geoffrey; Hickmann, Kyle S; Mniszewski, Susan M; Del Valle, Sara Y; Hyman, James M

    2014-12-01

    Implementing realistic activity patterns for a population is crucial for modeling, for example, disease spread, supply and demand, and disaster response. Using the dynamic activity simulation engine, DASim, we generate schedules for a population that capture regular (e.g., working, eating, and sleeping) and irregular activities (e.g., shopping or going to the doctor). We use the sample entropy (SampEn) statistic to quantify a schedule's regularity for a population. We show how to tune an activity's regularity by adjusting SampEn, thereby making it possible to realistically design activities when creating a schedule. The tuning process sets up a computationally intractable high-dimensional optimization problem. To reduce the computational demand, we use Bayesian Gaussian process regression to compute global sensitivity indices and identify the parameters that have the greatest effect on the variance of SampEn. We use the harmony search (HS) global optimization algorithm to locate global optima. Our results show that HS combined with global sensitivity analysis can efficiently tune the SampEn statistic with few search iterations. We demonstrate how global sensitivity analysis can guide statistical emulation and global optimization algorithms to efficiently tune activities and generate realistic activity patterns. Though our tuning methods are applied to dynamic activity schedule generation, they are general and represent a significant step in the direction of automated tuning and optimization of high-dimensional computer simulations.

  20. Techniques for sensitivity analysis of SYVAC results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prust, J.O.

    1985-05-01

    Sensitivity analysis techniques may be required to examine the sensitivity of SYVAC model predictions to the input parameter values, the subjective probability distributions assigned to the input parameters and to the relationship between dose and the probability of fatal cancers plus serious hereditary disease in the first two generations of offspring of a member of the critical group. This report mainly considers techniques for determining the sensitivity of dose and risk to the variable input parameters. The performance of a sensitivity analysis technique may be improved by decomposing the model and data into subsets for analysis, making use of existing information on sensitivity and concentrating sampling in regions the parameter space that generates high doses or risks. A number of sensitivity analysis techniques are reviewed for their application to the SYVAC model including four techniques tested in an earlier study by CAP Scientific for the SYVAC project. This report recommends the development now of a method for evaluating the derivative of dose and parameter value and extending the Kruskal-Wallis technique to test for interactions between parameters. It is also recommended that the sensitivity of the output of each sub-model of SYVAC to input parameter values should be examined. (author)

  1. Chronic myeloid leukemia patients sensitive and resistant to imatinib treatment show different metabolic responses.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiye A

    Full Text Available The BCR-ABL tyrosine kinase inhibitor imatinib is highly effective for chronic myeloid leukemia (CML. However, some patients gradually develop resistance to imatinib, resulting in therapeutic failure. Metabonomic and genomic profiling of patients' responses to drug interventions can provide novel information about the in vivo metabolism of low-molecular-weight compounds and extend our insight into the mechanism of drug resistance. Based on a multi-platform of high-throughput metabonomics, SNP array analysis, karyotype and mutation, the metabolic phenotypes and genomic polymorphisms of CML patients and their diverse responses to imatinib were characterized. The untreated CML patients (UCML showed different metabolic patterns from those of healthy controls, and the discriminatory metabolites suggested the perturbed metabolism of the urea cycle, tricarboxylic acid cycle, lipid metabolism, and amino acid turnover in UCML. After imatinib treatment, patients sensitive to imatinib (SCML and patients resistant to imatinib (RCML had similar metabolic phenotypes to those of healthy controls and UCML, respectively. SCML showed a significant metabolic response to imatinib, with marked restoration of the perturbed metabolism. Most of the metabolites characterizing CML were adjusted to normal levels, including the intermediates of the urea cycle and tricarboxylic acid cycle (TCA. In contrast, neither cytogenetic nor metabonomic analysis indicated any positive response to imatinib in RCML. We report for the first time the associated genetic and metabonomic responses of CML patients to imatinib and show that the perturbed in vivo metabolism of UCML is independent of imatinib treatment in resistant patients. Thus, metabonomics can potentially characterize patients' sensitivity or resistance to drug intervention.

  2. Sensitivity analysis of a PWR pressurizer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bruel, Renata Nunes

    1997-01-01

    A sensitivity analysis relative to the parameters and modelling of the physical process in a PWR pressurizer has been performed. The sensitivity analysis was developed by implementing the key parameters and theoretical model lings which generated a comprehensive matrix of influences of each changes analysed. The major influences that have been observed were the flashing phenomenon and the steam condensation on the spray drops. The present analysis is also applicable to the several theoretical and experimental areas. (author)

  3. Approximate method in estimation sensitivity responses to variations in delayed neutron energy spectra

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yoo, J; Shin, H S; Song, T Y; Park, W S [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)

    1998-12-31

    Previous our numerical results in computing point kinetics equations show a possibility in developing approximations to estimate sensitivity responses of nuclear reactor. We recalculate sensitivity responses by maintaining the corrections with first order of sensitivity parameter. We present a method for computing sensitivity responses of nuclear reactor based on an approximation derived from point kinetics equations. Exploiting this approximation, we found that the first order approximation works to estimate variations in the time to reach peak power because of their linear dependence on a sensitivity parameter, and that there are errors in estimating the peak power in the first order approximation for larger sensitivity parameters. To confirm legitimacy of out approximation, these approximate results are compared with exact results obtained from out previous numerical study. 4 refs., 2 figs., 3 tabs. (Author)

  4. Approximate method in estimation sensitivity responses to variations in delayed neutron energy spectra

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yoo, J.; Shin, H. S.; Song, T. Y.; Park, W. S. [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)

    1997-12-31

    Previous our numerical results in computing point kinetics equations show a possibility in developing approximations to estimate sensitivity responses of nuclear reactor. We recalculate sensitivity responses by maintaining the corrections with first order of sensitivity parameter. We present a method for computing sensitivity responses of nuclear reactor based on an approximation derived from point kinetics equations. Exploiting this approximation, we found that the first order approximation works to estimate variations in the time to reach peak power because of their linear dependence on a sensitivity parameter, and that there are errors in estimating the peak power in the first order approximation for larger sensitivity parameters. To confirm legitimacy of out approximation, these approximate results are compared with exact results obtained from out previous numerical study. 4 refs., 2 figs., 3 tabs. (Author)

  5. Sensitivity Analysis of a Physiochemical Interaction Model ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In this analysis, we will study the sensitivity analysis due to a variation of the initial condition and experimental time. These results which we have not seen elsewhere are analysed and discussed quantitatively. Keywords: Passivation Rate, Sensitivity Analysis, ODE23, ODE45 J. Appl. Sci. Environ. Manage. June, 2012, Vol.

  6. Technique for sensitivity analysis of space- and energy-dependent burn-up calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, M.L.; White, J.R.

    1979-01-01

    A practical method is presented for sensitivity analysis of the very complex, space-energy dependent burn-up equations, in which the neutron and nuclide fields are coupled nonlinearly. The adjoint burn-up equations that are given are in a form which can be directly implemented into multi-dimensional depletion codes, such as VENTURE/BURNER. The data sensitivity coefficients can be used to determine the effect of data uncertainties on time-dependent depletion responses. Initial condition sensitivity coefficients provide a very effective method for computing the change in end of cycle parameters (such as k/sub eff/, fissile inventory, etc.) due to changes in nuclide concentrations at beginning of cycle

  7. Sensitivity analysis of predictive models with an automated adjoint generator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pin, F.G.; Oblow, E.M.

    1987-01-01

    The adjoint method is a well established sensitivity analysis methodology that is particularly efficient in large-scale modeling problems. The coefficients of sensitivity of a given response with respect to every parameter involved in the modeling code can be calculated from the solution of a single adjoint run of the code. Sensitivity coefficients provide a quantitative measure of the importance of the model data in calculating the final results. The major drawback of the adjoint method is the requirement for calculations of very large numbers of partial derivatives to set up the adjoint equations of the model. ADGEN is a software system that has been designed to eliminate this drawback and automatically implement the adjoint formulation in computer codes. The ADGEN system will be described and its use for improving performance assessments and predictive simulations will be discussed. 8 refs., 1 fig

  8. The Response Dynamics of Recognition Memory: Sensitivity and Bias

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koop, Gregory J.; Criss, Amy H.

    2016-01-01

    Advances in theories of memory are hampered by insufficient metrics for measuring memory. The goal of this paper is to further the development of model-independent, sensitive empirical measures of the recognition decision process. We evaluate whether metrics from continuous mouse tracking, or response dynamics, uniquely identify response bias and…

  9. Electrodermal responses during appetitive conditioning are sensitive to contingency instruction ambiguity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van den Akker, Karolien; Nederkoorn, Chantal; Jansen, Anita

    2017-08-01

    Studies on human appetitive conditioning using food rewards can benefit from including psychophysiological outcome measures. The present study tested whether the skin conductance response can function as a measure of differential responding in an appetitive conditioning paradigm including an acquisition and extinction phase, and examined which time window during a trial is most sensitive to conditioning effects. As a secondary aim, the effects of ambiguous vs. non-ambiguous contingency instructions on conditioned responses (skin conductance responses, US expectancies, chocolate desires, and CS evaluations) were assessed. Results indicated differential skin conductance responses in an anticipatory time window and during unexpected omission of the US in early extinction. Interestingly however, anticipatory responses were only found for participants who received ambiguous contingency instructions - possibly indicating a call for additional processing resources in response to the ambiguous CS+. Further, ambiguous instructions slowed the extinction of US expectancies but did not influence chocolate desires and CS evaluations. It is concluded that skin conductance can function as a sensitive measure of differential responding in appetitive conditioning, though its sensitivity might depend on the specific task context. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Performances of non-parametric statistics in sensitivity analysis and parameter ranking

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saltelli, A.

    1987-01-01

    Twelve parametric and non-parametric sensitivity analysis techniques are compared in the case of non-linear model responses. The test models used are taken from the long-term risk analysis for the disposal of high level radioactive waste in a geological formation. They describe the transport of radionuclides through a set of engineered and natural barriers from the repository to the biosphere and to man. The output data from these models are the dose rates affecting the maximum exposed individual of a critical group at a given point in time. All the techniques are applied to the output from the same Monte Carlo simulations, where a modified version of Latin Hypercube method is used for the sample selection. Hypothesis testing is systematically applied to quantify the degree of confidence in the results given by the various sensitivity estimators. The estimators are ranked according to their robustness and stability, on the basis of two test cases. The conclusions are that no estimator can be considered the best from all points of view and recommend the use of more than just one estimator in sensitivity analysis

  11. Immune response to allergens in sheep sensitized to house dust mite

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Velden Joanne

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background House dust mite (HDM allergens are a major cause of allergic asthma. Most studies using animal models of allergic asthma have used rodents sensitized with the 'un-natural' allergen ovalbumin. It has only recently been recognized that the use of animal models based on HDM provide a more relevant insight into the allergen-induced mechanisms that underpin human allergic disease. We have previously described a sheep model of human allergic asthma that uses Dermatophagoides pteronyssinus HDM. The present study extends our understanding of the immune effects of HDM and the allergens Der p 1 and Der p 2 in the sheep model of asthma. Methods Peripheral blood sera from non-sensitized (control sheep and sheep sensitized to HDM was collected to determine immunoglobulin (Ig reactivities to HDM, Der p 1 and Der p 2 by ELISA. Bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL fluid collected following allergen challenge was also assessed for the presence of HDM-specific antibodies. To examine the cellular immune response to HDM allergens, T cell proliferation and cutaneous responses were assessed in sensitized and control sheep. Results Strong HDM- and Der p 1-specific IgE, IgG1, IgG2 and IgA serum responses were observed in sensitized sheep, while detectable levels of HDM-specific IgG1 and IgA were seen in BAL fluid of allergen-challenged lungs. In contrast, minimal antibody reactivity was observed to Der p 2. Marked T cell proliferation and late phase cutaneous responses, accompanied by the recruitment of eosinophils, indicates the induction of a cellular and delayed-type hypersensitivity (DTH type II response by HDM and Der p 1 allergen, but not Der p 2. Conclusion This work characterizes the humoral and cellular immune effects of HDM extract and its major constituent allergens in sheep sensitized to HDM. The effects of allergen in HDM-sensitized sheep were detectable both locally and systemically, and probably mediated via enzymatic and immune actions of the

  12. Immune Profiles to Predict Response to Desensitization Therapy in Highly HLA-Sensitized Kidney Transplant Candidates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yabu, Julie M; Siebert, Janet C; Maecker, Holden T

    2016-01-01

    Kidney transplantation is the most effective treatment for end-stage kidney disease. Sensitization, the formation of human leukocyte antigen (HLA) antibodies, remains a major barrier to successful kidney transplantation. Despite the implementation of desensitization strategies, many candidates fail to respond. Current progress is hindered by the lack of biomarkers to predict response and to guide therapy. Our objective was to determine whether differences in immune and gene profiles may help identify which candidates will respond to desensitization therapy. Single-cell mass cytometry by time-of-flight (CyTOF) phenotyping, gene arrays, and phosphoepitope flow cytometry were performed in a study of 20 highly sensitized kidney transplant candidates undergoing desensitization therapy. Responders to desensitization therapy were defined as 5% or greater decrease in cumulative calculated panel reactive antibody (cPRA) levels, and non-responders had 0% decrease in cPRA. Using a decision tree analysis, we found that a combination of transitional B cell and regulatory T cell (Treg) frequencies at baseline before initiation of desensitization therapy could distinguish responders from non-responders. Using a support vector machine (SVM) and longitudinal data, TRAF3IP3 transcripts and HLA-DR-CD38+CD4+ T cells could also distinguish responders from non-responders. Combining all assays in a multivariate analysis and elastic net regression model with 72 analytes, we identified seven that were highly interrelated and eleven that predicted response to desensitization therapy. Measuring baseline and longitudinal immune and gene profiles could provide a useful strategy to distinguish responders from non-responders to desensitization therapy. This study presents the integration of novel translational studies including CyTOF immunophenotyping in a multivariate analysis model that has potential applications to predict response to desensitization, select candidates, and personalize

  13. Global transcriptional response of solvent-sensitive and solvent-tolerant Pseudomonas putida strains exposed to toluene

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Molina-Santiago, Carlos; Udaondo, Zulema; Gómez Lozano, María

    2017-01-01

    for the degradation and synthesis of a wide range of chemicals. For the use of these microbes in bioremediation and biocatalysis, it is critical to understand the mechanisms underlying these phenotypic differences. In this study, RNA-seq analysis compared the short- and long-term responses of the toluene-sensitive KT...... pathways, using toluene as source of energy. Among the unique genes encoded by DOT-T1E is a 70kb island composed of genes of unknown function induced in response to toluene....

  14. Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of nuclear responses in the EU HCLL TBM of ITER

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leichtle, Dieter; Fischer, Ulrich; Perel, Reuven L.; Serikov, Arkady

    2011-01-01

    Within the EU Fusion Technology Programme dedicated theoretical and experimental efforts are conducted to provide reliable nuclear data and computational tools for design analyses for fusion devices like ITER including qualified uncertainty estimates. In this respect, the present paper reports on sensitivity and uncertainty analyses for the EU HCLL Test Blanket Module (TBM) of ITER. Neutron flux spectra and tritium production rates have been calculated using MCNP with a modified version of the ITER Alite torus sector model with integrated TBMs. Sensitivities of such parameters to nuclear cross sections of isotopes contained in the TBM as well as in the ITER device have been calculated using the Monte Carlo code MCSEN. Uncertainties could be obtained by using existing covariance data of the important nuclear cross section files, mainly from ENDF/B-VI, SCALE6.0, but also from recent JEFF/EFF evaluations. Like in the HCLL mock-up experiment two positions at front and back of the TBM have been selected. In both cases the calculated uncertainties of the responses (tritium production rate, neutron flux) are in the range of 2-4%.

  15. Extended forward sensitivity analysis of one-dimensional isothermal flow

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnson, M.; Zhao, H.

    2013-01-01

    Sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification is an important part of nuclear safety analysis. In this work, forward sensitivity analysis is used to compute solution sensitivities on 1-D fluid flow equations typical of those found in system level codes. Time step sensitivity analysis is included as a method for determining the accumulated error from time discretization. The ability to quantify numerical error arising from the time discretization is a unique and important feature of this method. By knowing the relative sensitivity of time step with other physical parameters, the simulation is allowed to run at optimized time steps without affecting the confidence of the physical parameter sensitivity results. The time step forward sensitivity analysis method can also replace the traditional time step convergence studies that are a key part of code verification with much less computational cost. One well-defined benchmark problem with manufactured solutions is utilized to verify the method; another test isothermal flow problem is used to demonstrate the extended forward sensitivity analysis process. Through these sample problems, the paper shows the feasibility and potential of using the forward sensitivity analysis method to quantify uncertainty in input parameters and time step size for a 1-D system-level thermal-hydraulic safety code. (authors)

  16. Response to the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in relation to climate sensitivity in the CMIP3 models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bender, Frida A.M.; Ekman, Annica M.L.; Rodhe, Henning [Stockholm University, Department of Meteorology, Stockholm (Sweden)

    2010-10-15

    The radiative flux perturbations and subsequent temperature responses in relation to the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991 are studied in the ten general circulation models incorporated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 3 (CMIP3), that include a parameterization of volcanic aerosol. Models and observations show decreases in global mean temperature of up to 0.5 K, in response to radiative perturbations of up to 10 W m{sup -2}, averaged over the tropics. The time scale representing the delay between radiative perturbation and temperature response is determined by the slow ocean response, and is estimated to be centered around 4 months in the models. Although the magnitude of the temperature response to a volcanic eruption has previously been used as an indicator of equilibrium climate sensitivity in models, we find these two quantities to be only weakly correlated. This may partly be due to the fact that the size of the volcano-induced radiative perturbation varies among the models. It is found that the magnitude of the modelled radiative perturbation increases with decreasing climate sensitivity, with the exception of one outlying model. Therefore, we scale the temperature perturbation by the radiative perturbation in each model, and use the ratio between the integrated temperature perturbation and the integrated radiative perturbation as a measure of sensitivity to volcanic forcing. This ratio is found to be well correlated with the model climate sensitivity, more sensitive models having a larger ratio. Further, if this correspondence between ''volcanic sensitivity'' and sensitivity to CO{sub 2} forcing is a feature not only among the models, but also of the real climate system, the alleged linear relation can be used to estimate the real climate sensitivity. The observational value of the ratio signifying volcanic sensitivity is hereby estimated to correspond to an equilibrium climate sensitivity, i.e. equilibrium temperature

  17. Sensitivity analysis of simulated SOA loadings using a variance-based statistical approach: SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF SOA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shrivastava, Manish [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Zhao, Chun [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Easter, Richard C. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Qian, Yun [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Zelenyuk, Alla [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Fast, Jerome D. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Liu, Ying [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Zhang, Qi [Department of Environmental Toxicology, University of California Davis, California USA; Guenther, Alex [Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine California USA

    2016-04-08

    We investigate the sensitivity of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) loadings simulated by a regional chemical transport model to 7 selected tunable model parameters: 4 involving emissions of anthropogenic and biogenic volatile organic compounds, anthropogenic semi-volatile and intermediate volatility organics (SIVOCs), and NOx, 2 involving dry deposition of SOA precursor gases, and one involving particle-phase transformation of SOA to low volatility. We adopt a quasi-Monte Carlo sampling approach to effectively sample the high-dimensional parameter space, and perform a 250 member ensemble of simulations using a regional model, accounting for some of the latest advances in SOA treatments based on our recent work. We then conduct a variance-based sensitivity analysis using the generalized linear model method to study the responses of simulated SOA loadings to the tunable parameters. Analysis of SOA variance from all 250 simulations shows that the volatility transformation parameter, which controls whether particle-phase transformation of SOA from semi-volatile SOA to non-volatile is on or off, is the dominant contributor to variance of simulated surface-level daytime SOA (65% domain average contribution). We also split the simulations into 2 subsets of 125 each, depending on whether the volatility transformation is turned on/off. For each subset, the SOA variances are dominated by the parameters involving biogenic VOC and anthropogenic SIVOC emissions. Furthermore, biogenic VOC emissions have a larger contribution to SOA variance when the SOA transformation to non-volatile is on, while anthropogenic SIVOC emissions have a larger contribution when the transformation is off. NOx contributes less than 4.3% to SOA variance, and this low contribution is mainly attributed to dominance of intermediate to high NOx conditions throughout the simulated domain. The two parameters related to dry deposition of SOA precursor gases also have very low contributions to SOA variance

  18. Seismic analysis response factors and design margins of piping systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shieh, L.C.; Tsai, N.C.; Yang, M.S.; Wong, W.L.

    1985-01-01

    The objective of the simplified methods project of the Seismic Safety Margins Research Program is to develop a simplified seismic risk methodology for general use. The goal is to reduce seismic PRA costs to roughly 60 man-months over a 6 to 8 month period, without compromising the quality of the product. To achieve the goal, it is necessary to simplify the calculational procedure of the seismic response. The response factor approach serves this purpose. The response factor relates the median level response to the design data. Through a literature survey, we identified the various seismic analysis methods adopted in the U.S. nuclear industry for the piping system. A series of seismic response calculations was performed. The response factors and their variabilities for each method of analysis were computed. A sensitivity study of the effect of piping damping, in-structure response spectra envelop method, and analysis method was conducted. In addition, design margins, which relate the best-estimate response to the design data, are also presented

  19. Single-cell analysis of targeted transcriptome predicts drug sensitivity of single cells within human myeloma tumors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitra, A K; Mukherjee, U K; Harding, T; Jang, J S; Stessman, H; Li, Y; Abyzov, A; Jen, J; Kumar, S; Rajkumar, V; Van Ness, B

    2016-05-01

    Multiple myeloma (MM) is characterized by significant genetic diversity at subclonal levels that have a defining role in the heterogeneity of tumor progression, clinical aggressiveness and drug sensitivity. Although genome profiling studies have demonstrated heterogeneity in subclonal architecture that may ultimately lead to relapse, a gene expression-based prediction program that can identify, distinguish and quantify drug response in sub-populations within a bulk population of myeloma cells is lacking. In this study, we performed targeted transcriptome analysis on 528 pre-treatment single cells from 11 myeloma cell lines and 418 single cells from 8 drug-naïve MM patients, followed by intensive bioinformatics and statistical analysis for prediction of proteasome inhibitor sensitivity in individual cells. Using our previously reported drug response gene expression profile signature at the single-cell level, we developed an R Statistical analysis package available at https://github.com/bvnlabSCATTome, SCATTome (single-cell analysis of targeted transcriptome), that restructures the data obtained from Fluidigm single-cell quantitative real-time-PCR analysis run, filters missing data, performs scaling of filtered data, builds classification models and predicts drug response of individual cells based on targeted transcriptome using an assortment of machine learning methods. Application of SCATT should contribute to clinically relevant analysis of intratumor heterogeneity, and better inform drug choices based on subclonal cellular responses.

  20. Effect of household pet ownership on infant immune response and subsequent sensitization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angela Simpson

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Angela SimpsonManchester Academic Health Science Centre, NIHR Translational Research Facility in Respiratory Medicine, University Hospital of South Manchester NHS Foundation Trust, Manchester, UKAbstract: Sensitization to pets is a major risk factor for asthma. There are many reports on the relationship between household pets, sensitization to the pet, and sensitization to other allergens, often with conflicting results. Pet ownership is not random, and household pets are associated with exposures other than pet allergens. We will review some of the evidence regarding the effects of household pets on infant immune responses, focusing on data from birth cohort studies. It remains unclear precisely why some children develop specific sensitizations to pets whilst others do not in the face of equivalent exposures, but it is likely to be due to gene-environment interactions. Further long-term follow-up of children in whom neonatal and infant immune responses have been measured is necessary to understand how these events occur and how they relate to subsequent disease.Keywords: pets, sensitization, immune response

  1. Application of adjoint sensitivity analysis to nuclear reactor fuel rod performance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilderman, S.J.; Was, G.S.

    1984-01-01

    Adjoint sensitivity analysis in nuclear fuel behavior modeling is extended to operate on the entire power history for both Zircaloy and stainless steel cladding via the computer codes FCODE-ALPHA/SS and SCODE/SS. The sensitivities of key variables to input parameters are found to be highly non-intuitive and strongly dependent on the fuel-clad gap status and the history of the fuel during the cycle. The sensitivities of five key variables, clad circumferential stress and strain, fission gas release, fuel centerline temperature and fuel-clad gap, to eleven input parameters are studied. The most important input parameters (yielding significances between 1 and 100) are fabricated clad inner and outer radii and fuel radius. The least important significances (less than 0.01) are the time since reactor start-up and fuel-burnup densification rate. Intermediate to these are fabricated fuel porosity, linear heat generation rate, the power history scale factor, clad outer temperature, fill gas pressure and coolant pressure. Stainless steel and Zircaloy have similar sensitivities at start-up but these diverges a burnup proceeds due to the effect of the higher creep rate of Zircaloy which causes the system to be more responsive to changes in input parameters. The value of adjoint sensitivity analysis lies in its capability of uncovering dependencies of fuel variables on input parameters that cannot be determined by a sequential thought process. (orig.)

  2. Multiple predictor smoothing methods for sensitivity analysis.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Helton, Jon Craig; Storlie, Curtis B.

    2006-08-01

    The use of multiple predictor smoothing methods in sampling-based sensitivity analyses of complex models is investigated. Specifically, sensitivity analysis procedures based on smoothing methods employing the stepwise application of the following nonparametric regression techniques are described: (1) locally weighted regression (LOESS), (2) additive models, (3) projection pursuit regression, and (4) recursive partitioning regression. The indicated procedures are illustrated with both simple test problems and results from a performance assessment for a radioactive waste disposal facility (i.e., the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant). As shown by the example illustrations, the use of smoothing procedures based on nonparametric regression techniques can yield more informative sensitivity analysis results than can be obtained with more traditional sensitivity analysis procedures based on linear regression, rank regression or quadratic regression when nonlinear relationships between model inputs and model predictions are present.

  3. Multiple predictor smoothing methods for sensitivity analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Helton, Jon Craig; Storlie, Curtis B.

    2006-01-01

    The use of multiple predictor smoothing methods in sampling-based sensitivity analyses of complex models is investigated. Specifically, sensitivity analysis procedures based on smoothing methods employing the stepwise application of the following nonparametric regression techniques are described: (1) locally weighted regression (LOESS), (2) additive models, (3) projection pursuit regression, and (4) recursive partitioning regression. The indicated procedures are illustrated with both simple test problems and results from a performance assessment for a radioactive waste disposal facility (i.e., the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant). As shown by the example illustrations, the use of smoothing procedures based on nonparametric regression techniques can yield more informative sensitivity analysis results than can be obtained with more traditional sensitivity analysis procedures based on linear regression, rank regression or quadratic regression when nonlinear relationships between model inputs and model predictions are present

  4. Implications for Climate Sensitivity from the Response to Individual Forcings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marvel, Kate; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Miller, Ron L.; Nazarenko, Larissa

    2015-01-01

    Climate sensitivity to doubled CO2 is a widely-used metric of the large-scale response to external forcing. Climate models predict a wide range for two commonly used definitions: the transient climate response (TCR: the warming after 70 years of CO2 concentrations that riseat 1 per year), and the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS: the equilibrium temperature change following a doubling of CO2 concentrations). Many observational datasets have been used to constrain these values, including temperature trends over the recent past 16, inferences from paleo-climate and process-based constraints from the modern satellite eras. However, as the IPCC recently reported different classes of observational constraints produce somewhat incongruent ranges. Here we show that climate sensitivity estimates derived from recent observations must account for the efficacy of each forcing active during the historical period. When we use single forcing experiments to estimate these efficacies and calculate climate sensitivity from the observed twentieth-century warming, our estimates of both TCR and ECS are revised upward compared to previous studies, improving the consistency with independent constraints.

  5. An easily implemented static condensation method for structural sensitivity analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gangadharan, S. N.; Haftka, R. T.; Nikolaidis, E.

    1990-01-01

    A black-box approach to static condensation for sensitivity analysis is presented with illustrative examples of a cube and a car structure. The sensitivity of the structural response with respect to joint stiffness parameter is calculated using the direct method, forward-difference, and central-difference schemes. The efficiency of the various methods for identifying joint stiffness parameters from measured static deflections of these structures is compared. The results indicate that the use of static condensation can reduce computation times significantly and the black-box approach is only slightly less efficient than the standard implementation of static condensation. The ease of implementation of the black-box approach recommends it for use with general-purpose finite element codes that do not have a built-in facility for static condensation.

  6. Sensitivity mapping for oil spill response. V. 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1997-01-01

    Making and updating sensitivity maps are key activities in the oil spill contingency planning process. These maps convey essential information to spill responders by showing where the different coastal resources are, and by indicating environmentally sensitive areas. The making of a map involves assembling information on resources and deciding on what guidelines for spill response should be included, through consultation with relevant organizations. This can be done regardless of whether or not the benefits of computerized Geographic Information Systems and databases are available. Uses of sensitivity maps range from planning practical site-specific shore protection and clean-up to strategic planning for large remote areas. This report provides information and guidelines on different map types, categories of information to be included, and symbols, with reference to the different users and their requirements. (UK)

  7. Finite mixture models for sensitivity analysis of thermal hydraulic codes for passive safety systems analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Di Maio, Francesco, E-mail: francesco.dimaio@polimi.it [Energy Department, Politecnico di Milano, Via La Masa 34, 20156 Milano (Italy); Nicola, Giancarlo [Energy Department, Politecnico di Milano, Via La Masa 34, 20156 Milano (Italy); Zio, Enrico [Energy Department, Politecnico di Milano, Via La Masa 34, 20156 Milano (Italy); Chair on System Science and Energetic Challenge Fondation EDF, Ecole Centrale Paris and Supelec, Paris (France); Yu, Yu [School of Nuclear Science and Engineering, North China Electric Power University, 102206 Beijing (China)

    2015-08-15

    Highlights: • Uncertainties of TH codes affect the system failure probability quantification. • We present Finite Mixture Models (FMMs) for sensitivity analysis of TH codes. • FMMs approximate the pdf of the output of a TH code with a limited number of simulations. • The approach is tested on a Passive Containment Cooling System of an AP1000 reactor. • The novel approach overcomes the results of a standard variance decomposition method. - Abstract: For safety analysis of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs), Best Estimate (BE) Thermal Hydraulic (TH) codes are used to predict system response in normal and accidental conditions. The assessment of the uncertainties of TH codes is a critical issue for system failure probability quantification. In this paper, we consider passive safety systems of advanced NPPs and present a novel approach of Sensitivity Analysis (SA). The approach is based on Finite Mixture Models (FMMs) to approximate the probability density function (i.e., the uncertainty) of the output of the passive safety system TH code with a limited number of simulations. We propose a novel Sensitivity Analysis (SA) method for keeping the computational cost low: an Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm is used to calculate the saliency of the TH code input variables for identifying those that most affect the system functional failure. The novel approach is compared with a standard variance decomposition method on a case study considering a Passive Containment Cooling System (PCCS) of an Advanced Pressurized reactor AP1000.

  8. Adjoint sensitivity analysis of the thermomechanical behavior of repositories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilson, J.L.; Thompson, B.M.

    1984-01-01

    The adjoint sensitivity method is applied to thermomechanical models for the first time. The method provides an efficient and inexpensive answer to the question: how sensitive are thermomechanical predictions to assumed parameters. The answer is exact, in the sense that it yields exact derivatives of response measures to parameters, and approximate, in the sense that projections of the response fo other parameter assumptions are only first order correct. The method is applied to linear finite element models of thermomechanical behavior. Extensions to more complicated models are straight-forward but often laborious. An illustration of the method with a two-dimensional repository corridor model reveals that the chosen stress response measure was most sensitive to Poisson's ratio for the rock matrix

  9. LBLOCA sensitivity analysis using meta models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Villamizar, M.; Sanchez-Saez, F.; Villanueva, J.F.; Carlos, S.; Sanchez, A.I.; Martorell, S.

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents an approach to perform the sensitivity analysis of the results of simulation of thermal hydraulic codes within a BEPU approach. Sensitivity analysis is based on the computation of Sobol' indices that makes use of a meta model, It presents also an application to a Large-Break Loss of Coolant Accident, LBLOCA, in the cold leg of a pressurized water reactor, PWR, addressing the results of the BEMUSE program and using the thermal-hydraulic code TRACE. (authors)

  10. Sensitivity analysis in life cycle assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Groen, E.A.; Heijungs, R.; Bokkers, E.A.M.; Boer, de I.J.M.

    2014-01-01

    Life cycle assessments require many input parameters and many of these parameters are uncertain; therefore, a sensitivity analysis is an essential part of the final interpretation. The aim of this study is to compare seven sensitivity methods applied to three types of case stud-ies. Two

  11. Contrasting Responses of Marine and Freshwater Photosynthetic Organisms to UVB Radiation: A Meta-Analysis

    KAUST Repository

    Jin, Peng

    2017-03-14

    Ultraviolet-B (UVB) radiation is a global stressor that has profound impacts on freshwater and marine ecosystems. However, an analysis of the patterns of sensitivity to UVB radiation across aquatic photosynthetic organisms has not yet been published. Here, we performed a meta-analysis on results reported in 214 studies compiled from the published literature to quantify and compare the magnitude of responses of aquatic photosynthetic organisms to changes in UVB radiation. The meta-analysis was conducted on observations of marine (n = 893) and freshwater macroalgae (n = 126) and of marine (n = 1,087) and freshwater (n = 2,889) microalgae (total n = 4,995). Most of these studies (85%) analyzed the performance of organisms exposed to natural solar radiation when UVB was partially or totally reduced compared with the organismal performance under the full solar radiation spectrum, whereas the remaining 15% of the studies examined the responses of organisms to elevated UVB radiation mostly using artificial lamps. We found that marine photosynthetic organisms tend to be more sensitive than freshwater photosynthetic organisms to UVB radiation; responses to either decreased or increased UVB radiation vary among taxa; the mortality rate is the most sensitive of the trait responses to elevated UVB radiation, followed by changes in cellular and molecular traits; the sensitivity of microalgae to UVB radiation is dependent on size, with small-celled microalgae more sensitive than large-celled microalgae to UVB radiation. Thick macroalgae morphotypes were the less sensitive to UVB, but this effect could not be separated from phylogenetic differences. The high sensitivity of marine species, particularly the smallest photosynthetic organisms, to increased UVB radiation suggests that the oligotrophic ocean, a habitat comprising 70% of the world\\'s oceans with high UVB penetration and dominated by picoautotrophs, is extremely vulnerable to changes in UVB radiation.

  12. Sensitivity analysis for matched pair analysis of binary data: From worst case to average case analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasegawa, Raiden; Small, Dylan

    2017-12-01

    In matched observational studies where treatment assignment is not randomized, sensitivity analysis helps investigators determine how sensitive their estimated treatment effect is to some unmeasured confounder. The standard approach calibrates the sensitivity analysis according to the worst case bias in a pair. This approach will result in a conservative sensitivity analysis if the worst case bias does not hold in every pair. In this paper, we show that for binary data, the standard approach can be calibrated in terms of the average bias in a pair rather than worst case bias. When the worst case bias and average bias differ, the average bias interpretation results in a less conservative sensitivity analysis and more power. In many studies, the average case calibration may also carry a more natural interpretation than the worst case calibration and may also allow researchers to incorporate additional data to establish an empirical basis with which to calibrate a sensitivity analysis. We illustrate this with a study of the effects of cellphone use on the incidence of automobile accidents. Finally, we extend the average case calibration to the sensitivity analysis of confidence intervals for attributable effects. © 2017, The International Biometric Society.

  13. High order depletion sensitivity analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Naguib, K.; Adib, M.; Morcos, H.N.

    2002-01-01

    A high order depletion sensitivity method was applied to calculate the sensitivities of build-up of actinides in the irradiated fuel due to cross-section uncertainties. An iteration method based on Taylor series expansion was applied to construct stationary principle, from which all orders of perturbations were calculated. The irradiated EK-10 and MTR-20 fuels at their maximum burn-up of 25% and 65% respectively were considered for sensitivity analysis. The results of calculation show that, in case of EK-10 fuel (low burn-up), the first order sensitivity was found to be enough to perform an accuracy of 1%. While in case of MTR-20 (high burn-up) the fifth order was found to provide 3% accuracy. A computer code SENS was developed to provide the required calculations

  14. Responsiveness and sensitivity of the Stroke Specific Quality of Life Scale Danish version

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Muus, Ingrid; Christensen, Doris; Petzold, Max

    2011-01-01

    To test responsiveness and sensitivity to change of the Stroke Specific Quality of Life Scale Danish version (SSQOL-DK) scores in patients following stroke.......To test responsiveness and sensitivity to change of the Stroke Specific Quality of Life Scale Danish version (SSQOL-DK) scores in patients following stroke....

  15. Sensitivity analysis of large system of chemical kinetic parameters for engine combustion simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hsieh, H; Sanz-Argent, J; Petitpas, G; Havstad, M; Flowers, D

    2012-04-19

    In this study, the authors applied the state-of-the art sensitivity methods to downselect system parameters from 4000+ to 8, (23000+ -> 4000+ -> 84 -> 8). This analysis procedure paves the way for future works: (1) calibrate the system response using existed experimental observations, and (2) predict future experiment results, using the calibrated system.

  16. Comparing light sensitivity, linearity and step response of electronic cameras for ophthalmology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kopp, O; Markert, S; Tornow, R P

    2002-01-01

    To develop and test a procedure to measure and compare light sensitivity, linearity and step response of electronic cameras. The pixel value (PV) of digitized images as a function of light intensity (I) was measured. The sensitivity was calculated from the slope of the P(I) function, the linearity was estimated from the correlation coefficient of this function. To measure the step response, a short sequence of images was acquired. During acquisition, a light source was switched on and off using a fast shutter. The resulting PV was calculated for each video field of the sequence. A CCD camera optimized for the near-infrared (IR) spectrum showed the highest sensitivity for both, visible and IR light. There are little differences in linearity. The step response depends on the procedure of integration and read out.

  17. Automating sensitivity analysis of computer models using computer calculus

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oblow, E.M.; Pin, F.G.

    1986-01-01

    An automated procedure for performing sensitivity analysis has been developed. The procedure uses a new FORTRAN compiler with computer calculus capabilities to generate the derivatives needed to set up sensitivity equations. The new compiler is called GRESS - Gradient Enhanced Software System. Application of the automated procedure with direct and adjoint sensitivity theory for the analysis of non-linear, iterative systems of equations is discussed. Calculational efficiency consideration and techniques for adjoint sensitivity analysis are emphasized. The new approach is found to preserve the traditional advantages of adjoint theory while removing the tedious human effort previously needed to apply this theoretical methodology. Conclusions are drawn about the applicability of the automated procedure in numerical analysis and large-scale modelling sensitivity studies

  18. Implementation and evaluation of nonparametric regression procedures for sensitivity analysis of computationally demanding models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Storlie, Curtis B.; Swiler, Laura P.; Helton, Jon C.; Sallaberry, Cedric J.

    2009-01-01

    The analysis of many physical and engineering problems involves running complex computational models (simulation models, computer codes). With problems of this type, it is important to understand the relationships between the input variables (whose values are often imprecisely known) and the output. The goal of sensitivity analysis (SA) is to study this relationship and identify the most significant factors or variables affecting the results of the model. In this presentation, an improvement on existing methods for SA of complex computer models is described for use when the model is too computationally expensive for a standard Monte-Carlo analysis. In these situations, a meta-model or surrogate model can be used to estimate the necessary sensitivity index for each input. A sensitivity index is a measure of the variance in the response that is due to the uncertainty in an input. Most existing approaches to this problem either do not work well with a large number of input variables and/or they ignore the error involved in estimating a sensitivity index. Here, a new approach to sensitivity index estimation using meta-models and bootstrap confidence intervals is described that provides solutions to these drawbacks. Further, an efficient yet effective approach to incorporate this methodology into an actual SA is presented. Several simulated and real examples illustrate the utility of this approach. This framework can be extended to uncertainty analysis as well.

  19. Unique proteomic signature for radiation sensitive patients; a comparative study between normo-sensitive and radiation sensitive breast cancer patients

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Skiöld, Sara [Center for Radiation Protection Research, Department of Molecular Biosciences, The Wernner-Gren Institute, Stockholm University, Stockholm (Sweden); Azimzadeh, Omid [Institute of Radiation Biology, German Research Center for Environmental Health, Helmholtz Zentrum München (Germany); Merl-Pham, Juliane [Research Unit Protein Science, German Research Center for Environmental Health, Helmholtz Zentrum München, Neuherberg (Germany); Naslund, Ingemar; Wersall, Peter; Lidbrink, Elisabet [Division of Radiotherapy, Radiumhemmet, Karolinska University Hospital, Stockholm (Sweden); Tapio, Soile [Institute of Radiation Biology, German Research Center for Environmental Health, Helmholtz Zentrum München (Germany); Harms-Ringdahl, Mats [Center for Radiation Protection Research, Department of Molecular Biosciences, The Wernner-Gren Institute, Stockholm University, Stockholm (Sweden); Haghdoost, Siamak, E-mail: Siamak.Haghdoost@su.se [Center for Radiation Protection Research, Department of Molecular Biosciences, The Wernner-Gren Institute, Stockholm University, Stockholm (Sweden)

    2015-06-15

    Highlights: • The unique protein expression profiles were found that separate radiosensitive from normal sensitive breast cancer patients. • The oxidative stress response, coagulation properties and acute phase response suggested to be the hallmarks of radiation sensitivity. - Abstract: Radiation therapy is a cornerstone of modern cancer treatment. Understanding the mechanisms behind normal tissue sensitivity is essential in order to minimize adverse side effects and yet to prevent local cancer reoccurrence. The aim of this study was to identify biomarkers of radiation sensitivity to enable personalized cancer treatment. To investigate the mechanisms behind radiation sensitivity a pilot study was made where eight radiation-sensitive and nine normo-sensitive patients were selected from a cohort of 2914 breast cancer patients, based on acute tissue reactions after radiation therapy. Whole blood was sampled and irradiated in vitro with 0, 1, or 150 mGy followed by 3 h incubation at 37 °C. The leukocytes of the two groups were isolated, pooled and protein expression profiles were investigated using isotope-coded protein labeling method (ICPL). First, leukocytes from the in vitro irradiated whole blood from normo-sensitive and extremely sensitive patients were compared to the non-irradiated controls. To validate this first study a second ICPL analysis comparing only the non-irradiated samples was conducted. Both approaches showed unique proteomic signatures separating the two groups at the basal level and after doses of 1 and 150 mGy. Pathway analyses of both proteomic approaches suggest that oxidative stress response, coagulation properties and acute phase response are hallmarks of radiation sensitivity supporting our previous study on oxidative stress response. This investigation provides unique characteristics of radiation sensitivity essential for individualized radiation therapy.

  20. Unique proteomic signature for radiation sensitive patients; a comparative study between normo-sensitive and radiation sensitive breast cancer patients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Skiöld, Sara; Azimzadeh, Omid; Merl-Pham, Juliane; Naslund, Ingemar; Wersall, Peter; Lidbrink, Elisabet; Tapio, Soile; Harms-Ringdahl, Mats; Haghdoost, Siamak

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • The unique protein expression profiles were found that separate radiosensitive from normal sensitive breast cancer patients. • The oxidative stress response, coagulation properties and acute phase response suggested to be the hallmarks of radiation sensitivity. - Abstract: Radiation therapy is a cornerstone of modern cancer treatment. Understanding the mechanisms behind normal tissue sensitivity is essential in order to minimize adverse side effects and yet to prevent local cancer reoccurrence. The aim of this study was to identify biomarkers of radiation sensitivity to enable personalized cancer treatment. To investigate the mechanisms behind radiation sensitivity a pilot study was made where eight radiation-sensitive and nine normo-sensitive patients were selected from a cohort of 2914 breast cancer patients, based on acute tissue reactions after radiation therapy. Whole blood was sampled and irradiated in vitro with 0, 1, or 150 mGy followed by 3 h incubation at 37 °C. The leukocytes of the two groups were isolated, pooled and protein expression profiles were investigated using isotope-coded protein labeling method (ICPL). First, leukocytes from the in vitro irradiated whole blood from normo-sensitive and extremely sensitive patients were compared to the non-irradiated controls. To validate this first study a second ICPL analysis comparing only the non-irradiated samples was conducted. Both approaches showed unique proteomic signatures separating the two groups at the basal level and after doses of 1 and 150 mGy. Pathway analyses of both proteomic approaches suggest that oxidative stress response, coagulation properties and acute phase response are hallmarks of radiation sensitivity supporting our previous study on oxidative stress response. This investigation provides unique characteristics of radiation sensitivity essential for individualized radiation therapy

  1. Sensory-motor responses to mechanical stimulation of the esophagus after sensitization with acid.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drewes, Asbjørn-Mohr; Reddy, Hariprasad; Staahl, Camilla; Pedersen, Jan; Funch-Jensen, Peter; Arendt-Nielsen, Lars; Gregersen, Hans

    2005-07-28

    Sensitization most likely plays an important role in chronic pain disorders, and such sensitization can be mimicked by experimental acid perfusion of the esophagus. The current study systematically investigated the sensory and motor responses of the esophagus to controlled mechanical stimuli before and after sensitization. Thirty healthy subjects were included. Distension of the distal esophagus with a balloon was performed before and after perfusion with 0.1 mol/L hydrochloric acid for 30 min. An impedance planimetry system was used to measure cross-sectional area, volume, pressure, and tension during the distensions. A new model allowed evaluation of the phasic contractions by the tension during contractions as a function of the initial muscle length before the contraction (comparable to the Frank-Starling law for the heart). Length-tension diagrams were used to evaluate the muscle tone before and after relaxation of the smooth muscle with butylscopolamine. The sensitization resulted in allodynia and hyperalgesia to the distension volumes, and the degree of sensitization was related to the infused volume of acid. Furthermore, a nearly 50% increase in the evoked referred pain was seen after sensitization. The mechanical analysis demonstrated hyper-reactivity of the esophagus following acid perfusion, with an increased number and force of the phasic contractions, but the muscle tone did not change. Acid perfusion of the esophagus sensitizes the sensory pathways and facilitates secondary contractions. The new model can be used to study abnormal sensory-motor mechanisms in visceral organs.

  2. Frontier Assignment for Sensitivity Analysis of Data Envelopment Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naito, Akio; Aoki, Shingo; Tsuji, Hiroshi

    To extend the sensitivity analysis capability for DEA (Data Envelopment Analysis), this paper proposes frontier assignment based DEA (FA-DEA). The basic idea of FA-DEA is to allow a decision maker to decide frontier intentionally while the traditional DEA and Super-DEA decide frontier computationally. The features of FA-DEA are as follows: (1) provides chances to exclude extra-influential DMU (Decision Making Unit) and finds extra-ordinal DMU, and (2) includes the function of the traditional DEA and Super-DEA so that it is able to deal with sensitivity analysis more flexibly. Simple numerical study has shown the effectiveness of the proposed FA-DEA and the difference from the traditional DEA.

  3. Sensitivity analysis in optimization and reliability problems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Castillo, Enrique; Minguez, Roberto; Castillo, Carmen

    2008-01-01

    The paper starts giving the main results that allow a sensitivity analysis to be performed in a general optimization problem, including sensitivities of the objective function, the primal and the dual variables with respect to data. In particular, general results are given for non-linear programming, and closed formulas for linear programming problems are supplied. Next, the methods are applied to a collection of civil engineering reliability problems, which includes a bridge crane, a retaining wall and a composite breakwater. Finally, the sensitivity analysis formulas are extended to calculus of variations problems and a slope stability problem is used to illustrate the methods

  4. Sensitivity analysis in optimization and reliability problems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Castillo, Enrique [Department of Applied Mathematics and Computational Sciences, University of Cantabria, Avda. Castros s/n., 39005 Santander (Spain)], E-mail: castie@unican.es; Minguez, Roberto [Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Castilla-La Mancha, 13071 Ciudad Real (Spain)], E-mail: roberto.minguez@uclm.es; Castillo, Carmen [Department of Civil Engineering, University of Castilla-La Mancha, 13071 Ciudad Real (Spain)], E-mail: mariacarmen.castillo@uclm.es

    2008-12-15

    The paper starts giving the main results that allow a sensitivity analysis to be performed in a general optimization problem, including sensitivities of the objective function, the primal and the dual variables with respect to data. In particular, general results are given for non-linear programming, and closed formulas for linear programming problems are supplied. Next, the methods are applied to a collection of civil engineering reliability problems, which includes a bridge crane, a retaining wall and a composite breakwater. Finally, the sensitivity analysis formulas are extended to calculus of variations problems and a slope stability problem is used to illustrate the methods.

  5. Characterization of the rapid transcriptional response to long-term sensitization training in Aplysia californica.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herdegen, Samantha; Holmes, Geraldine; Cyriac, Ashly; Calin-Jageman, Irina E; Calin-Jageman, Robert J

    2014-12-01

    We used a custom-designed microarray and quantitative PCR to characterize the rapid transcriptional response to long-term sensitization training in the marine mollusk Aplysia californica. Aplysia were exposed to repeated noxious shocks to one side of the body, a procedure known to induce a long-lasting, transcription-dependent increase in reflex responsiveness that is restricted to the side of training. One hour after training, pleural ganglia from the trained and untrained sides of the body were harvested; these ganglia contain the sensory nociceptors which help mediate the expression of long-term sensitization memory. Microarray analysis from 8 biological replicates suggests that long-term sensitization training rapidly regulates at least 81 transcripts. We used qPCR to test a subset of these transcripts and found that 83% were confirmed in the same samples, and 86% of these were again confirmed in an independent sample. Thus, our new microarray design shows strong convergent and predictive validity for analyzing the transcriptional correlates of memory in Aplysia. Fully validated transcripts include some previously identified as regulated in this paradigm (ApC/EBP and ApEgr) but also include novel findings. Specifically, we show that long-term sensitization training rapidly up-regulates the expression of transcripts which may encode Aplysia homologs of a C/EBPγ transcription factor, a glycine transporter (GlyT2), and a vacuolar-protein-sorting-associated protein (VPS36). Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Sensitivity analysis for large-scale problems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noor, Ahmed K.; Whitworth, Sandra L.

    1987-01-01

    The development of efficient techniques for calculating sensitivity derivatives is studied. The objective is to present a computational procedure for calculating sensitivity derivatives as part of performing structural reanalysis for large-scale problems. The scope is limited to framed type structures. Both linear static analysis and free-vibration eigenvalue problems are considered.

  7. Temperature sensitivity of soil respiration rates enhanced by microbial community response.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karhu, Kristiina; Auffret, Marc D; Dungait, Jennifer A J; Hopkins, David W; Prosser, James I; Singh, Brajesh K; Subke, Jens-Arne; Wookey, Philip A; Agren, Göran I; Sebastià, Maria-Teresa; Gouriveau, Fabrice; Bergkvist, Göran; Meir, Patrick; Nottingham, Andrew T; Salinas, Norma; Hartley, Iain P

    2014-09-04

    Soils store about four times as much carbon as plant biomass, and soil microbial respiration releases about 60 petagrams of carbon per year to the atmosphere as carbon dioxide. Short-term experiments have shown that soil microbial respiration increases exponentially with temperature. This information has been incorporated into soil carbon and Earth-system models, which suggest that warming-induced increases in carbon dioxide release from soils represent an important positive feedback loop that could influence twenty-first-century climate change. The magnitude of this feedback remains uncertain, however, not least because the response of soil microbial communities to changing temperatures has the potential to either decrease or increase warming-induced carbon losses substantially. Here we collect soils from different ecosystems along a climate gradient from the Arctic to the Amazon and investigate how microbial community-level responses control the temperature sensitivity of soil respiration. We find that the microbial community-level response more often enhances than reduces the mid- to long-term (90 days) temperature sensitivity of respiration. Furthermore, the strongest enhancing responses were observed in soils with high carbon-to-nitrogen ratios and in soils from cold climatic regions. After 90 days, microbial community responses increased the temperature sensitivity of respiration in high-latitude soils by a factor of 1.4 compared to the instantaneous temperature response. This suggests that the substantial carbon stores in Arctic and boreal soils could be more vulnerable to climate warming than currently predicted.

  8. Caregiver Sensitivity, Contingent Social Responsiveness, and Secure Infant Attachment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunst, Carl J.; Kassow, Danielle Z.

    2008-01-01

    Findings from two research syntheses of the relationship between caregiver sensitivity and secure infant attachment and one research synthesis of factors associated with increased caregiver use of a sensitive interactional style are presented. The main focus of analysis was the extent to which different measures of caregiver contingent social…

  9. Development of a finite-element-based design sensitivity analysis for buckling and postbuckling of composite plates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guo Ruijiang

    1995-01-01

    Full Text Available A finite element based sensitivity analysis procedure is developed for buckling and postbuckling of composite plates. This procedure is based on the direct differentiation approach combined with the reference volume concept. Linear elastic material model and nonlinear geometric relations are used. The sensitivity analysis technique results in a set of linear algebraic equations which are easy to solve. The procedure developed provides the sensitivity derivatives directly from the current load and responses by solving the set of linear equations. Numerical results are presented and are compared with those obtained using finite difference technique. The results show good agreement except at points near critical buckling load where discontinuities occur. The procedure is very efficient computationally.

  10. Differential metabolome analysis of field-grown maize kernels in response to drought stress

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drought stress constrains maize kernel development and can exacerbate aflatoxin contamination. In order to identify drought responsive metabolites and explore pathways involved in kernel responses, a metabolomics analysis was conducted on kernels from a drought tolerant line, Lo964, and a sensitive ...

  11. Procedures for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in repository performance assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poern, K.; Aakerlund, O.

    1985-10-01

    The objective of the project was mainly a literature study of available methods for the treatment of parameter uncertainty propagation and sensitivity aspects in complete models such as those concerning geologic disposal of radioactive waste. The study, which has run parallel with the development of a code package (PROPER) for computer assisted analysis of function, also aims at the choice of accurate, cost-affective methods for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. Such a choice depends on several factors like the number of input parameters, the capacity of the model and the computer reresources required to use the model. Two basic approaches are addressed in the report. In one of these the model of interest is directly simulated by an efficient sampling technique to generate an output distribution. Applying the other basic method the model is replaced by an approximating analytical response surface, which is then used in the sampling phase or in moment matching to generate the output distribution. Both approaches are illustrated by simple examples in the report. (author)

  12. The role of sensitivity analysis in assessing uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crick, M.J.; Hill, M.D.

    1987-01-01

    Outside the specialist world of those carrying out performance assessments considerable confusion has arisen about the meanings of sensitivity analysis and uncertainty analysis. In this paper we attempt to reduce this confusion. We then go on to review approaches to sensitivity analysis within the context of assessing uncertainty, and to outline the types of test available to identify sensitive parameters, together with their advantages and disadvantages. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors; they have not been formally endorsed by the National Radiological Protection Board and should not be interpreted as Board advice

  13. Sensitivity theory for reactor burnup analysis based on depletion perturbation theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, Wonsik.

    1989-01-01

    The large computational effort involved in the design and analysis of advanced reactor configurations motivated the development of Depletion Perturbation Theory (DPT) for general fuel cycle analysis. The work here focused on two important advances in the current methods. First, the adjoint equations were developed for using the efficient linear flux approximation to decouple the neutron/nuclide field equations. And second, DPT was extended to the constrained equilibrium cycle which is important for the consistent comparison and evaluation of alternative reactor designs. Practical strategies were formulated for solving the resulting adjoint equations and a computer code was developed for practical applications. In all cases analyzed, the sensitivity coefficients generated by DPT were in excellent agreement with the results of exact calculations. The work here indicates that for a given core response, the sensitivity coefficients to all input parameters can be computed by DPT with a computational effort similar to a single forward depletion calculation

  14. Calculating the sensitivity of wind turbine loads to wind inputs using response surfaces

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rinker, Jennifer M.

    2016-01-01

    at a low computational cost. Sobol sensitivity indices (SIs) can then be calculated with relative ease using the calibrated response surface. The proposed methodology is demonstrated by calculating the total sensitivity of the maximum blade root bending moment of the WindPACT 5 MW reference model to four......This paper presents a methodology to calculate wind turbine load sensitivities to turbulence parameters through the use of response surfaces. A response surface is a high-dimensional polynomial surface that can be calibrated to any set of input/output data and then used to generate synthetic data...... turbulence input parameters: a reference mean wind speed, a reference turbulence intensity, the Kaimal length scale, and a novel parameter reflecting the nonstationarity present in the inflow turbulence. The input/output data used to calibrate the response surface were generated for a previous project...

  15. A sensitivity analysis of the WIPP disposal room model: Phase 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Labreche, D.A.; Beikmann, M.A. [RE/SPEC, Inc., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Osnes, J.D. [RE/SPEC, Inc., Rapid City, SD (United States); Butcher, B.M. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    1995-07-01

    The WIPP Disposal Room Model (DRM) is a numerical model with three major components constitutive models of TRU waste, crushed salt backfill, and intact halite -- and several secondary components, including air gap elements, slidelines, and assumptions on symmetry and geometry. A sensitivity analysis of the Disposal Room Model was initiated on two of the three major components (waste and backfill models) and on several secondary components as a group. The immediate goal of this component sensitivity analysis (Phase I) was to sort (rank) model parameters in terms of their relative importance to model response so that a Monte Carlo analysis on a reduced set of DRM parameters could be performed under Phase II. The goal of the Phase II analysis will be to develop a probabilistic definition of a disposal room porosity surface (porosity, gas volume, time) that could be used in WIPP Performance Assessment analyses. This report documents a literature survey which quantifies the relative importance of the secondary room components to room closure, a differential analysis of the creep consolidation model and definition of a follow-up Monte Carlo analysis of the model, and an analysis and refitting of the waste component data on which a volumetric plasticity model of TRU drum waste is based. A summary, evaluation of progress, and recommendations for future work conclude the report.

  16. Copper alters hypoxia sensitivity and the behavioural emersion response in the amphibious fish Kryptolebias marmoratus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blewett, Tamzin A; Simon, Robyn A; Turko, Andy J; Wright, Patricia A

    2017-08-01

    Elevated levels of metals have been reported in mangrove ecosystems worldwide. Mangrove fishes also routinely experience severe environmental stressors, such as hypoxia. In the amphibious fish Kryptolebias marmoratus (mangrove rivulus), a key behavioural response to avoid aquatic stress is to leave water (emersion). We hypothesized that copper (Cu) exposure would increase the sensitivity of this behavioural hypoxia avoidance response due to histopathological effects of Cu on gill structure and function. K. marmoratus were exposed to either control (no added Cu) or Cu (300μg/L) for 96h. Following this period, fish were exposed to an acute hypoxic challenge (decline in dissolved oxygen to ∼0% over 15min), and the emersion response was recorded. Gills were examined for histological changes. Fish exposed to Cu emersed at a higher dissolved oxygen level (7.5±0.6%), relative to the control treatment group (5.8±0.4%). Histological analysis showed that the gill surface area increased and the interlamellar cell mass (ILCM) was reduced following Cu exposure, contrary to our prediction. Overall, these data indicate that Cu induces hypoxia-like changes to gill morphology and increases the sensitivity of the hypoxia emersion response. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. Sensitivity Analysis of a Simplified Fire Dynamic Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Lars Schiøtt; Nielsen, Anker

    2015-01-01

    This paper discusses a method for performing a sensitivity analysis of parameters used in a simplified fire model for temperature estimates in the upper smoke layer during a fire. The results from the sensitivity analysis can be used when individual parameters affecting fire safety are assessed...

  18. pH responsive label-assisted click chemistry triggered sensitivity amplification for ultrasensitive electrochemical detection of carbohydrate antigen 24-2.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Yun; Zhao, Lihua; Ma, Zhanfang

    2018-05-15

    Sensitivity amplification strategy by implementing click chemistry in the construction of biosensing interface can efficiently improve the performance of immunosensor. Herein, we developed a sandwich-type amperometric immunosensor for ultrasensitive detection of carbohydrate antigen 24-2 (CA 242) based on pH responsive label-assisted click chemistry triggered sensitivity amplification strategy. The sensitivity of amperometric immunosensor relies on the current response differences (ΔI) caused by per unit concentration target analyte. The pH responsive Cu 2+ -loaded polydopamine (CuPDA) particles conjugated with detection antibodies were employed as labels, which can release Cu(II) ions by regulating pH. In the presence of ascorbic acid (reductant), Cu(II) ions were reduced to Cu(I) ions. Azide-functionalized double-stranded DNA (dsDNA) as signal enhancer was immobilized on the substrate through Cu + -catalyzed azide/alkyne cycloaddition reaction. With the help of the click reaction, the ΔI caused by target was elevated prominently, resulting in sensitivity amplification of the immunosensor. Under optimal condition, the proposed immunosensor exhibited excellent performance with linear range from 0.0001 to 100 U mL -1 and ultralow detection limit of 20.74 μU mL -1 . This work successfully combines click chemistry with pH-responsive labels in sandwich-type amperometric immunosensor, providing a promising sensitivity amplification strategy to construct immunosensing platform for analysis of other tumor marker. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis in health economics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baio, Gianluca; Dawid, A Philip

    2015-12-01

    Health economic evaluations have recently become an important part of the clinical and medical research process and have built upon more advanced statistical decision-theoretic foundations. In some contexts, it is officially required that uncertainty about both parameters and observable variables be properly taken into account, increasingly often by means of Bayesian methods. Among these, probabilistic sensitivity analysis has assumed a predominant role. The objective of this article is to review the problem of health economic assessment from the standpoint of Bayesian statistical decision theory with particular attention to the philosophy underlying the procedures for sensitivity analysis. © The Author(s) 2011.

  20. TOLERANCE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS: THIRTY YEARS LATER

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard E. Wendell

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Tolerance sensitivity analysis was conceived in 1980 as a pragmatic approach to effectively characterize a parametric region over which objective function coefficients and right-hand-side terms in linear programming could vary simultaneously and independently while maintaining the same optimal basis. As originally proposed, the tolerance region corresponds to the maximum percentage by which coefficients or terms could vary from their estimated values. Over the last thirty years the original results have been extended in a number of ways and applied in a variety of applications. This paper is a critical review of tolerance sensitivity analysis, including extensions and applications.

  1. Sensitivity analysis for missing data in regulatory submissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Permutt, Thomas

    2016-07-30

    The National Research Council Panel on Handling Missing Data in Clinical Trials recommended that sensitivity analyses have to be part of the primary reporting of findings from clinical trials. Their specific recommendations, however, seem not to have been taken up rapidly by sponsors of regulatory submissions. The NRC report's detailed suggestions are along rather different lines than what has been called sensitivity analysis in the regulatory setting up to now. Furthermore, the role of sensitivity analysis in regulatory decision-making, although discussed briefly in the NRC report, remains unclear. This paper will examine previous ideas of sensitivity analysis with a view to explaining how the NRC panel's recommendations are different and possibly better suited to coping with present problems of missing data in the regulatory setting. It will also discuss, in more detail than the NRC report, the relevance of sensitivity analysis to decision-making, both for applicants and for regulators. Published 2015. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA. Published 2015. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

  2. About the use of rank transformation in sensitivity analysis of model output

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saltelli, Andrea; Sobol', Ilya M

    1995-01-01

    Rank transformations are frequently employed in numerical experiments involving a computational model, especially in the context of sensitivity and uncertainty analyses. Response surface replacement and parameter screening are tasks which may benefit from a rank transformation. Ranks can cope with nonlinear (albeit monotonic) input-output distributions, allowing the use of linear regression techniques. Rank transformed statistics are more robust, and provide a useful solution in the presence of long tailed input and output distributions. As is known to practitioners, care must be employed when interpreting the results of such analyses, as any conclusion drawn using ranks does not translate easily to the original model. In the present note an heuristic approach is taken, to explore, by way of practical examples, the effect of a rank transformation on the outcome of a sensitivity analysis. An attempt is made to identify trends, and to correlate these effects to a model taxonomy. Employing sensitivity indices, whereby the total variance of the model output is decomposed into a sum of terms of increasing dimensionality, we show that the main effect of the rank transformation is to increase the relative weight of the first order terms (the 'main effects'), at the expense of the 'interactions' and 'higher order interactions'. As a result the influence of those parameters which influence the output mostly by way of interactions may be overlooked in an analysis based on the ranks. This difficulty increases with the dimensionality of the problem, and may lead to the failure of a rank based sensitivity analysis. We suggest that the models can be ranked, with respect to the complexity of their input-output relationship, by mean of an 'Association' index I y . I y may complement the usual model coefficient of determination R y 2 as a measure of model complexity for the purpose of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis

  3. Risk and sensitivity analysis in relation to external events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alzbutas, R.; Urbonas, R.; Augutis, J.

    2001-01-01

    This paper presents risk and sensitivity analysis of external events impacts on the safe operation in general and in particular the Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant safety systems. Analysis is based on the deterministic and probabilistic assumptions and assessment of the external hazards. The real statistic data are used as well as initial external event simulation. The preliminary screening criteria are applied. The analysis of external event impact on the NPP safe operation, assessment of the event occurrence, sensitivity analysis, and recommendations for safety improvements are performed for investigated external hazards. Such events as aircraft crash, extreme rains and winds, forest fire and flying parts of the turbine are analysed. The models are developed and probabilities are calculated. As an example for sensitivity analysis the model of aircraft impact is presented. The sensitivity analysis takes into account the uncertainty features raised by external event and its model. Even in case when the external events analysis show rather limited danger, the sensitivity analysis can determine the highest influence causes. These possible variations in future can be significant for safety level and risk based decisions. Calculations show that external events cannot significantly influence the safety level of the Ignalina NPP operation, however the events occurrence and propagation can be sufficiently uncertain.(author)

  4. Analysis of DNA methylation of maize in response to osmotic and salt stress based on methylation-sensitive amplified polymorphism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Ming-pu

    2010-01-01

    Water stress is known to alter cytosine methylation, which generally represses transcription. However, little is known about the role of methylation alteration in maize under osmotic stress. Here, methylation-sensitive amplified polymorphism (MSAP) was used to screen PEG- or NaCl-induced methylation alteration in maize seedlings. The sequences of 25 differentially amplified fragments relevant to stress were successfully obtained. Two stress-specific fragments from leaves, LP166 and LPS911, shown to be homologous to retrotransposon Gag-Pol protein genes, suggested that osmotic stress-induced methylation of retrotransposons. Three MSAP fragments, representing drought-induced or salt-induced methylation in leaves, were homologous to a maize aluminum-induced transporter. Besides these, heat shock protein HSP82, Poly [ADP-ribose] polymerase 2, Lipoxygenase, casein kinase (CK2), and dehydration-responsive element-binding (DREB) factor were also homologs of MSAP sequences from salt-treated roots. One MSAP fragment amplified from salt-treated roots, designated RS39, was homologous to the first intron of maize protein phosphatase 2C (zmPP2C), whereas - LS103, absent from salt-treated leaves, was homologous to maize glutathione S-transferases (zmGST). Expression analysis showed that salt-induced intron methylation of root zmPP2C significantly downregulated its expression, while salt-induced demethylation of leaf zmGST weakly upregulated its expression. The results suggested that salinity-induced methylation downregulated zmPP2C expression, a negative regulator of the stress response, while salinity-induced demethylation upregulated zmGST expression, a positive effecter of the stress response. Altered methylation, in response to stress, might also be involved in stress acclimation. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  5. Automating sensitivity analysis of computer models using computer calculus

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oblow, E.M.; Pin, F.G.

    1985-01-01

    An automated procedure for performing sensitivity analyses has been developed. The procedure uses a new FORTRAN compiler with computer calculus capabilities to generate the derivatives needed to set up sensitivity equations. The new compiler is called GRESS - Gradient Enhanced Software System. Application of the automated procedure with ''direct'' and ''adjoint'' sensitivity theory for the analysis of non-linear, iterative systems of equations is discussed. Calculational efficiency consideration and techniques for adjoint sensitivity analysis are emphasized. The new approach is found to preserve the traditional advantages of adjoint theory while removing the tedious human effort previously needed to apply this theoretical methodology. Conclusions are drawn about the applicability of the automated procedure in numerical analysis and large-scale modelling sensitivity studies. 24 refs., 2 figs

  6. Sensitivity analysis and related analysis : A survey of statistical techniques

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kleijnen, J.P.C.

    1995-01-01

    This paper reviews the state of the art in five related types of analysis, namely (i) sensitivity or what-if analysis, (ii) uncertainty or risk analysis, (iii) screening, (iv) validation, and (v) optimization. The main question is: when should which type of analysis be applied; which statistical

  7. Transient simulation and sensitivity analysis for transport of radionuclides in a saturated-unsaturated groundwater flow system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, H.H.

    1980-01-01

    Radionuclide transport by groundwater flow is an important pathway in the assessment of the environmental impact of radioactive waste disposal to the biosphere. A numerical model was developed to simulate radionuclide transport by groundwater flow and predict the radionuclide discharge rate to the biosphere. A sensitivity analysis methodology was developed to address the sensitivity of the input parameters of the radionuclide transport equation to the specified response of interest

  8. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis methodology in a level-I PSA (Probabilistic Safety Assessment)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nunez McLeod, J.E.; Rivera, S.S.

    1997-01-01

    This work presents a methodology for sensitivity and uncertainty analysis, applicable to a probabilistic safety assessment level I. The work contents are: correct association of distributions to parameters, importance and qualification of expert opinions, generations of samples according to sample sizes, and study of the relationships among system variables and system response. A series of statistical-mathematical techniques are recommended along the development of the analysis methodology, as well different graphical visualization for the control of the study. (author) [es

  9. Accelerated Sensitivity Analysis in High-Dimensional Stochastic Reaction Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arampatzis, Georgios; Katsoulakis, Markos A; Pantazis, Yannis

    2015-01-01

    Existing sensitivity analysis approaches are not able to handle efficiently stochastic reaction networks with a large number of parameters and species, which are typical in the modeling and simulation of complex biochemical phenomena. In this paper, a two-step strategy for parametric sensitivity analysis for such systems is proposed, exploiting advantages and synergies between two recently proposed sensitivity analysis methodologies for stochastic dynamics. The first method performs sensitivity analysis of the stochastic dynamics by means of the Fisher Information Matrix on the underlying distribution of the trajectories; the second method is a reduced-variance, finite-difference, gradient-type sensitivity approach relying on stochastic coupling techniques for variance reduction. Here we demonstrate that these two methods can be combined and deployed together by means of a new sensitivity bound which incorporates the variance of the quantity of interest as well as the Fisher Information Matrix estimated from the first method. The first step of the proposed strategy labels sensitivities using the bound and screens out the insensitive parameters in a controlled manner. In the second step of the proposed strategy, a finite-difference method is applied only for the sensitivity estimation of the (potentially) sensitive parameters that have not been screened out in the first step. Results on an epidermal growth factor network with fifty parameters and on a protein homeostasis with eighty parameters demonstrate that the proposed strategy is able to quickly discover and discard the insensitive parameters and in the remaining potentially sensitive parameters it accurately estimates the sensitivities. The new sensitivity strategy can be several times faster than current state-of-the-art approaches that test all parameters, especially in "sloppy" systems. In particular, the computational acceleration is quantified by the ratio between the total number of parameters over the

  10. Accelerated Sensitivity Analysis in High-Dimensional Stochastic Reaction Networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Georgios Arampatzis

    Full Text Available Existing sensitivity analysis approaches are not able to handle efficiently stochastic reaction networks with a large number of parameters and species, which are typical in the modeling and simulation of complex biochemical phenomena. In this paper, a two-step strategy for parametric sensitivity analysis for such systems is proposed, exploiting advantages and synergies between two recently proposed sensitivity analysis methodologies for stochastic dynamics. The first method performs sensitivity analysis of the stochastic dynamics by means of the Fisher Information Matrix on the underlying distribution of the trajectories; the second method is a reduced-variance, finite-difference, gradient-type sensitivity approach relying on stochastic coupling techniques for variance reduction. Here we demonstrate that these two methods can be combined and deployed together by means of a new sensitivity bound which incorporates the variance of the quantity of interest as well as the Fisher Information Matrix estimated from the first method. The first step of the proposed strategy labels sensitivities using the bound and screens out the insensitive parameters in a controlled manner. In the second step of the proposed strategy, a finite-difference method is applied only for the sensitivity estimation of the (potentially sensitive parameters that have not been screened out in the first step. Results on an epidermal growth factor network with fifty parameters and on a protein homeostasis with eighty parameters demonstrate that the proposed strategy is able to quickly discover and discard the insensitive parameters and in the remaining potentially sensitive parameters it accurately estimates the sensitivities. The new sensitivity strategy can be several times faster than current state-of-the-art approaches that test all parameters, especially in "sloppy" systems. In particular, the computational acceleration is quantified by the ratio between the total number of

  11. Contributions to sensitivity analysis and generalized discriminant analysis; Contributions a l'analyse de sensibilite et a l'analyse discriminante generalisee

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jacques, J

    2005-12-15

    Two topics are studied in this thesis: sensitivity analysis and generalized discriminant analysis. Global sensitivity analysis of a mathematical model studies how the output variables of this last react to variations of its inputs. The methods based on the study of the variance quantify the part of variance of the response of the model due to each input variable and each subset of input variables. The first subject of this thesis is the impact of a model uncertainty on results of a sensitivity analysis. Two particular forms of uncertainty are studied: that due to a change of the model of reference, and that due to the use of a simplified model with the place of the model of reference. A second problem was studied during this thesis, that of models with correlated inputs. Indeed, classical sensitivity indices not having significance (from an interpretation point of view) in the presence of correlation of the inputs, we propose a multidimensional approach consisting in expressing the sensitivity of the output of the model to groups of correlated variables. Applications in the field of nuclear engineering illustrate this work. Generalized discriminant analysis consists in classifying the individuals of a test sample in groups, by using information contained in a training sample, when these two samples do not come from the same population. This work extends existing methods in a Gaussian context to the case of binary data. An application in public health illustrates the utility of generalized discrimination models thus defined. (author)

  12. Sensory-motor responses to mechanical stimulation of the esophagus after sensitization with acid

    OpenAIRE

    Drewes, Asbjorn Mohr; Reddy, Hariprasad; Staahl, Camilla; Pedersen, Jan; Funch-Jensen, Peter; Arendt-Nielsen, Lars; Gregersen, Hans

    2005-01-01

    AIM: Sensitization most likely plays an important role in chronic pain disorders, and such sensitization can be mimicked by experimental acid perfusion of the esophagus. The current study systematically investigated the sensory and motor responses of the esophagus to controlled mechanical stimuli before and after sensitization.

  13. Sensitivity Analysis of Criticality for Different Nuclear Fuel Shapes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kang, Hyun Sik; Jang, Misuk; Kim, Seoung Rae [NESS, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-10-15

    Rod-type nuclear fuel was mainly developed in the past, but recent study has been extended to plate-type nuclear fuel. Therefore, this paper reviews the sensitivity of criticality according to different shapes of nuclear fuel types. Criticality analysis was performed using MCNP5. MCNP5 is well-known Monte Carlo codes for criticality analysis and a general-purpose Monte Carlo N-Particle code that can be used for neutron, photon, electron or coupled neutron / photon / electron transport, including the capability to calculate eigenvalues for critical systems. We performed the sensitivity analysis of criticality for different fuel shapes. In sensitivity analysis for simple fuel shapes, the criticality is proportional to the surface area. But for fuel Assembly types, it is not proportional to the surface area. In sensitivity analysis for intervals between plates, the criticality is greater as the interval increases, but if the interval is greater than 8mm, it showed an opposite trend that the criticality decrease by a larger interval. As a result, it has failed to obtain the logical content to be described in common for all cases. The sensitivity analysis of Criticality would be always required whenever subject to be analyzed is changed.

  14. Sensitivity Analysis of Criticality for Different Nuclear Fuel Shapes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, Hyun Sik; Jang, Misuk; Kim, Seoung Rae

    2016-01-01

    Rod-type nuclear fuel was mainly developed in the past, but recent study has been extended to plate-type nuclear fuel. Therefore, this paper reviews the sensitivity of criticality according to different shapes of nuclear fuel types. Criticality analysis was performed using MCNP5. MCNP5 is well-known Monte Carlo codes for criticality analysis and a general-purpose Monte Carlo N-Particle code that can be used for neutron, photon, electron or coupled neutron / photon / electron transport, including the capability to calculate eigenvalues for critical systems. We performed the sensitivity analysis of criticality for different fuel shapes. In sensitivity analysis for simple fuel shapes, the criticality is proportional to the surface area. But for fuel Assembly types, it is not proportional to the surface area. In sensitivity analysis for intervals between plates, the criticality is greater as the interval increases, but if the interval is greater than 8mm, it showed an opposite trend that the criticality decrease by a larger interval. As a result, it has failed to obtain the logical content to be described in common for all cases. The sensitivity analysis of Criticality would be always required whenever subject to be analyzed is changed

  15. The role of sensitivity analysis in probabilistic safety assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hirschberg, S.; Knochenhauer, M.

    1987-01-01

    The paper describes several items suitable for close examination by means of application of sensitivity analysis, when performing a level 1 PSA. Sensitivity analyses are performed with respect to; (1) boundary conditions, (2) operator actions, and (3) treatment of common cause failures (CCFs). The items of main interest are identified continuously in the course of performing a PSA, as well as by scrutinising the final results. The practical aspects of sensitivity analysis are illustrated by several applications from a recent PSA study (ASEA-ATOM BWR 75). It is concluded that sensitivity analysis leads to insights important for analysts, reviewers and decision makers. (orig./HP)

  16. Global Sensitivity Analysis of Environmental Models: Convergence, Robustness and Validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarrazin, Fanny; Pianosi, Francesca; Khorashadi Zadeh, Farkhondeh; Van Griensven, Ann; Wagener, Thorsten

    2015-04-01

    Global Sensitivity Analysis aims to characterize the impact that variations in model input factors (e.g. the parameters) have on the model output (e.g. simulated streamflow). In sampling-based Global Sensitivity Analysis, the sample size has to be chosen carefully in order to obtain reliable sensitivity estimates while spending computational resources efficiently. Furthermore, insensitive parameters are typically identified through the definition of a screening threshold: the theoretical value of their sensitivity index is zero but in a sampling-base framework they regularly take non-zero values. There is little guidance available for these two steps in environmental modelling though. The objective of the present study is to support modellers in making appropriate choices, regarding both sample size and screening threshold, so that a robust sensitivity analysis can be implemented. We performed sensitivity analysis for the parameters of three hydrological models with increasing level of complexity (Hymod, HBV and SWAT), and tested three widely used sensitivity analysis methods (Elementary Effect Test or method of Morris, Regional Sensitivity Analysis, and Variance-Based Sensitivity Analysis). We defined criteria based on a bootstrap approach to assess three different types of convergence: the convergence of the value of the sensitivity indices, of the ranking (the ordering among the parameters) and of the screening (the identification of the insensitive parameters). We investigated the screening threshold through the definition of a validation procedure. The results showed that full convergence of the value of the sensitivity indices is not necessarily needed to rank or to screen the model input factors. Furthermore, typical values of the sample sizes that are reported in the literature can be well below the sample sizes that actually ensure convergence of ranking and screening.

  17. Sensitivity analysis of Takagi-Sugeno-Kang rainfall-runoff fuzzy models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. P. Jacquin

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper is concerned with the sensitivity analysis of the model parameters of the Takagi-Sugeno-Kang fuzzy rainfall-runoff models previously developed by the authors. These models are classified in two types of fuzzy models, where the first type is intended to account for the effect of changes in catchment wetness and the second type incorporates seasonality as a source of non-linearity. The sensitivity analysis is performed using two global sensitivity analysis methods, namely Regional Sensitivity Analysis and Sobol's variance decomposition. The data of six catchments from different geographical locations and sizes are used in the sensitivity analysis. The sensitivity of the model parameters is analysed in terms of several measures of goodness of fit, assessing the model performance from different points of view. These measures include the Nash-Sutcliffe criteria, volumetric errors and peak errors. The results show that the sensitivity of the model parameters depends on both the catchment type and the measure used to assess the model performance.

  18. Sensitivity Analysis in Two-Stage DEA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Athena Forghani

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Data envelopment analysis (DEA is a method for measuring the efficiency of peer decision making units (DMUs which uses a set of inputs to produce a set of outputs. In some cases, DMUs have a two-stage structure, in which the first stage utilizes inputs to produce outputs used as the inputs of the second stage to produce final outputs. One important issue in two-stage DEA is the sensitivity of the results of an analysis to perturbations in the data. The current paper looks into combined model for two-stage DEA and applies the sensitivity analysis to DMUs on the entire frontier. In fact, necessary and sufficient conditions for preserving a DMU's efficiency classiffication are developed when various data changes are applied to all DMUs.

  19. Sensitivity Analysis in Two-Stage DEA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Athena Forghani

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Data envelopment analysis (DEA is a method for measuring the efficiency of peer decision making units (DMUs which uses a set of inputs to produce a set of outputs. In some cases, DMUs have a two-stage structure, in which the first stage utilizes inputs to produce outputs used as the inputs of the second stage to produce final outputs. One important issue in two-stage DEA is the sensitivity of the results of an analysis to perturbations in the data. The current paper looks into combined model for two-stage DEA and applies the sensitivity analysis to DMUs on the entire frontier. In fact, necessary and sufficient conditions for preserving a DMU's efficiency classiffication are developed when various data changes are applied to all DMUs.

  20. Sensitivity Analysis of Simulation Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kleijnen, J.P.C.

    2009-01-01

    This contribution presents an overview of sensitivity analysis of simulation models, including the estimation of gradients. It covers classic designs and their corresponding (meta)models; namely, resolution-III designs including fractional-factorial two-level designs for first-order polynomial

  1. Sobol' sensitivity analysis for stressor impacts on honeybee ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    We employ Monte Carlo simulation and nonlinear sensitivity analysis techniques to describe the dynamics of a bee exposure model, VarroaPop. Daily simulations are performed of hive population trajectories, taking into account queen strength, foraging success, mite impacts, weather, colony resources, population structure, and other important variables. This allows us to test the effects of defined pesticide exposure scenarios versus controlled simulations that lack pesticide exposure. The daily resolution of the model also allows us to conditionally identify sensitivity metrics. We use the variancebased global decomposition sensitivity analysis method, Sobol’, to assess firstand secondorder parameter sensitivities within VarroaPop, allowing us to determine how variance in the output is attributed to each of the input variables across different exposure scenarios. Simulations with VarroaPop indicate queen strength, forager life span and pesticide toxicity parameters are consistent, critical inputs for colony dynamics. Further analysis also reveals that the relative importance of these parameters fluctuates throughout the simulation period according to the status of other inputs. Our preliminary results show that model variability is conditional and can be attributed to different parameters depending on different timescales. By using sensitivity analysis to assess model output and variability, calibrations of simulation models can be better informed to yield more

  2. Sensitivity analysis of the RESRAD, a dose assessment code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu, C.; Cheng, J.J.; Zielen, A.J.

    1991-01-01

    The RESRAD code is a pathway analysis code that is designed to calculate radiation doses and derive soil cleanup criteria for the US Department of Energy's environmental restoration and waste management program. the RESRAD code uses various pathway and consumption-rate parameters such as soil properties and food ingestion rates in performing such calculations and derivations. As with any predictive model, the accuracy of the predictions depends on the accuracy of the input parameters. This paper summarizes the results of a sensitivity analysis of RESRAD input parameters. Three methods were used to perform the sensitivity analysis: (1) Gradient Enhanced Software System (GRESS) sensitivity analysis software package developed at oak Ridge National Laboratory; (2) direct perturbation of input parameters; and (3) built-in graphic package that shows parameter sensitivities while the RESRAD code is operational

  3. Sensitivity, Functional Analysis, and Behavior Genetics: A Response to Freeman et al.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reiss, Steven; Havercamp, Susan M.

    1999-01-01

    Sensitivity theory divides the causes of challenging behavior into three categories, aberrant contingencies, aberrant environments, and aberrant motivation. This paper replies to criticism that sensitivity theory is circular and unsupported by empirical evidence by reporting on studies that support the theory and rejecting the idea that…

  4. Sensitivity analysis and parameter estimation for distributed hydrological modeling: potential of variational methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Castaings

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available Variational methods are widely used for the analysis and control of computationally intensive spatially distributed systems. In particular, the adjoint state method enables a very efficient calculation of the derivatives of an objective function (response function to be analysed or cost function to be optimised with respect to model inputs.

    In this contribution, it is shown that the potential of variational methods for distributed catchment scale hydrology should be considered. A distributed flash flood model, coupling kinematic wave overland flow and Green Ampt infiltration, is applied to a small catchment of the Thoré basin and used as a relatively simple (synthetic observations but didactic application case.

    It is shown that forward and adjoint sensitivity analysis provide a local but extensive insight on the relation between the assigned model parameters and the simulated hydrological response. Spatially distributed parameter sensitivities can be obtained for a very modest calculation effort (~6 times the computing time of a single model run and the singular value decomposition (SVD of the Jacobian matrix provides an interesting perspective for the analysis of the rainfall-runoff relation.

    For the estimation of model parameters, adjoint-based derivatives were found exceedingly efficient in driving a bound-constrained quasi-Newton algorithm. The reference parameter set is retrieved independently from the optimization initial condition when the very common dimension reduction strategy (i.e. scalar multipliers is adopted.

    Furthermore, the sensitivity analysis results suggest that most of the variability in this high-dimensional parameter space can be captured with a few orthogonal directions. A parametrization based on the SVD leading singular vectors was found very promising but should be combined with another regularization strategy in order to prevent overfitting.

  5. Sensitivity analysis in a structural reliability context

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lemaitre, Paul

    2014-01-01

    This thesis' subject is sensitivity analysis in a structural reliability context. The general framework is the study of a deterministic numerical model that allows to reproduce a complex physical phenomenon. The aim of a reliability study is to estimate the failure probability of the system from the numerical model and the uncertainties of the inputs. In this context, the quantification of the impact of the uncertainty of each input parameter on the output might be of interest. This step is called sensitivity analysis. Many scientific works deal with this topic but not in the reliability scope. This thesis' aim is to test existing sensitivity analysis methods, and to propose more efficient original methods. A bibliographical step on sensitivity analysis on one hand and on the estimation of small failure probabilities on the other hand is first proposed. This step raises the need to develop appropriate techniques. Two variables ranking methods are then explored. The first one proposes to make use of binary classifiers (random forests). The second one measures the departure, at each step of a subset method, between each input original density and the density given the subset reached. A more general and original methodology reflecting the impact of the input density modification on the failure probability is then explored. The proposed methods are then applied on the CWNR case, which motivates this thesis. (author)

  6. Sensitivity analysis using probability bounding

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferson, Scott; Troy Tucker, W.

    2006-01-01

    Probability bounds analysis (PBA) provides analysts a convenient means to characterize the neighborhood of possible results that would be obtained from plausible alternative inputs in probabilistic calculations. We show the relationship between PBA and the methods of interval analysis and probabilistic uncertainty analysis from which it is jointly derived, and indicate how the method can be used to assess the quality of probabilistic models such as those developed in Monte Carlo simulations for risk analyses. We also illustrate how a sensitivity analysis can be conducted within a PBA by pinching inputs to precise distributions or real values

  7. An adjoint method of sensitivity analysis for residual vibrations of structures subject to impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Kun; Cheng, Gengdong

    2018-03-01

    For structures subject to impact loads, the residual vibration reduction is more and more important as the machines become faster and lighter. An efficient sensitivity analysis of residual vibration with respect to structural or operational parameters is indispensable for using a gradient based optimization algorithm, which reduces the residual vibration in either active or passive way. In this paper, an integrated quadratic performance index is used as the measure of the residual vibration, since it globally measures the residual vibration response and its calculation can be simplified greatly with Lyapunov equation. Several sensitivity analysis approaches for performance index were developed based on the assumption that the initial excitations of residual vibration were given and independent of structural design. Since the resulting excitations by the impact load often depend on structural design, this paper aims to propose a new efficient sensitivity analysis method for residual vibration of structures subject to impacts to consider the dependence. The new method is developed by combining two existing methods and using adjoint variable approach. Three numerical examples are carried out and demonstrate the accuracy of the proposed method. The numerical results show that the dependence of initial excitations on structural design variables may strongly affects the accuracy of sensitivities.

  8. Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses for performance assessment modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doctor, P.G.

    1988-08-01

    Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses methods for computer models are being applied in performance assessment modeling in the geologic high level radioactive waste repository program. The models used in performance assessment tend to be complex physical/chemical models with large numbers of input variables. There are two basic approaches to sensitivity and uncertainty analyses: deterministic and statistical. The deterministic approach to sensitivity analysis involves numerical calculation or employs the adjoint form of a partial differential equation to compute partial derivatives; the uncertainty analysis is based on Taylor series expansions of the input variables propagated through the model to compute means and variances of the output variable. The statistical approach to sensitivity analysis involves a response surface approximation to the model with the sensitivity coefficients calculated from the response surface parameters; the uncertainty analysis is based on simulation. The methods each have strengths and weaknesses. 44 refs

  9. Sprayed zinc oxide films: Ultra-violet light-induced reversible surface wettability and platinum-sensitization-assisted improved liquefied petroleum gas response.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakate, Umesh T; Patil, Pramila; Bulakhe, R N; Lokhande, C D; Kale, Sangeeta N; Naushad, Mu; Mane, Rajaram S

    2016-10-15

    We report the rapid (superhydrophobic to superhydrophilic) transition property and improvement in the liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) sensing response of zinc oxide (ZnO) nanorods (NRs) on UV-irradiation and platinum (Pt) surface sensitization, respectively. The morphological evolution of ZnO NRs is evidenced from the field emission scanning electron microscope and atomic force microscope digital images and for the structural elucidation X-ray diffraction pattern is used. Elemental survey mapping is obtained from energy dispersive X-ray analysis spectrum. The optical properties have been studied by UV-Visible and photoluminescence spectroscopy measurements. The rapid (120sec) conversion of superhydrophobic (154°) ZnO NRs film to superhydrophilic (7°) is obtained under UV light illumination and the superhydrophobicity is regained by storing sample in dark. The mechanism for switching wettability behavior of ZnO NRs has thoroughly been discussed. In second phase, Pt-sensitized ZnO NRs film has demonstrated considerable gas sensitivity at 260ppm concentration of LPG. At 623K operating temperature, the maximum LPG response of 58% and the response time of 49sec for 1040ppm LPG concentration of Pt- sensitized ZnO NRs film are obtained. This higher LPG response of Pt-sensitized ZnO NRs film over pristine is primarily due to electronic effect and catalytic effect (spill-over effect) caused by an additional of Pt on ZnO NRs film surface. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Sensitivity analysis of ranked data: from order statistics to quantiles

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heidergott, B.F.; Volk-Makarewicz, W.

    2015-01-01

    In this paper we provide the mathematical theory for sensitivity analysis of order statistics of continuous random variables, where the sensitivity is with respect to a distributional parameter. Sensitivity analysis of order statistics over a finite number of observations is discussed before

  11. Sensitivity analysis in remote sensing

    CERN Document Server

    Ustinov, Eugene A

    2015-01-01

    This book contains a detailed presentation of general principles of sensitivity analysis as well as their applications to sample cases of remote sensing experiments. An emphasis is made on applications of adjoint problems, because they are more efficient in many practical cases, although their formulation may seem counterintuitive to a beginner. Special attention is paid to forward problems based on higher-order partial differential equations, where a novel matrix operator approach to formulation of corresponding adjoint problems is presented. Sensitivity analysis (SA) serves for quantitative models of physical objects the same purpose, as differential calculus does for functions. SA provides derivatives of model output parameters (observables) with respect to input parameters. In remote sensing SA provides computer-efficient means to compute the jacobians, matrices of partial derivatives of observables with respect to the geophysical parameters of interest. The jacobians are used to solve corresponding inver...

  12. Probabilistic Sensitivity Analysis for Launch Vehicles with Varying Payloads and Adapters for Structural Dynamics and Loads

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGhee, David S.; Peck, Jeff A.; McDonald, Emmett J.

    2012-01-01

    This paper examines Probabilistic Sensitivity Analysis (PSA) methods and tools in an effort to understand their utility in vehicle loads and dynamic analysis. Specifically, this study addresses how these methods may be used to establish limits on payload mass and cg location and requirements on adaptor stiffnesses while maintaining vehicle loads and frequencies within established bounds. To this end, PSA methods and tools are applied to a realistic, but manageable, integrated launch vehicle analysis where payload and payload adaptor parameters are modeled as random variables. This analysis is used to study both Regional Response PSA (RRPSA) and Global Response PSA (GRPSA) methods, with a primary focus on sampling based techniques. For contrast, some MPP based approaches are also examined.

  13. Sensitivity Analysis for Urban Drainage Modeling Using Mutual Information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chuanqi Li

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available The intention of this paper is to evaluate the sensitivity of the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM output to its input parameters. A global parameter sensitivity analysis is conducted in order to determine which parameters mostly affect the model simulation results. Two different methods of sensitivity analysis are applied in this study. The first one is the partial rank correlation coefficient (PRCC which measures nonlinear but monotonic relationships between model inputs and outputs. The second one is based on the mutual information which provides a general measure of the strength of the non-monotonic association between two variables. Both methods are based on the Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS of the parameter space, and thus the same datasets can be used to obtain both measures of sensitivity. The utility of the PRCC and the mutual information analysis methods are illustrated by analyzing a complex SWMM model. The sensitivity analysis revealed that only a few key input variables are contributing significantly to the model outputs; PRCCs and mutual information are calculated and used to determine and rank the importance of these key parameters. This study shows that the partial rank correlation coefficient and mutual information analysis can be considered effective methods for assessing the sensitivity of the SWMM model to the uncertainty in its input parameters.

  14. Depletion GPT-free sensitivity analysis for reactor eigenvalue problems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kennedy, C.; Abdel-Khalik, H.

    2013-01-01

    This manuscript introduces a novel approach to solving depletion perturbation theory problems without the need to set up or solve the generalized perturbation theory (GPT) equations. The approach, hereinafter denoted generalized perturbation theory free (GPT-Free), constructs a reduced order model (ROM) using methods based in perturbation theory and computes response sensitivity profiles in a manner that is independent of the number or type of responses, allowing for an efficient computation of sensitivities when many responses are required. Moreover, the reduction error from using the ROM is quantified in the GPT-Free approach by means of a Wilks' order statistics error metric denoted the K-metric. Traditional GPT has been recognized as the most computationally efficient approach for performing sensitivity analyses of models with many input parameters, e.g. when forward sensitivity analyses are computationally intractable. However, most neutronics codes that can solve the fundamental (homogenous) adjoint eigenvalue problem do not have GPT capabilities unless envisioned during code development. The GPT-Free approach addresses this limitation by requiring only the ability to compute the fundamental adjoint. This manuscript demonstrates the GPT-Free approach for depletion reactor calculations performed in SCALE6 using the 7x7 UAM assembly model. A ROM is developed for the assembly over a time horizon of 990 days. The approach both calculates the reduction error over the lifetime of the simulation using the K-metric and benchmarks the obtained sensitivities using sample calculations. (authors)

  15. Complex finite element sensitivity method for creep analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gomez-Farias, Armando; Montoya, Arturo; Millwater, Harry

    2015-01-01

    The complex finite element method (ZFEM) has been extended to perform sensitivity analysis for mechanical and structural systems undergoing creep deformation. ZFEM uses a complex finite element formulation to provide shape, material, and loading derivatives of the system response, providing an insight into the essential factors which control the behavior of the system as a function of time. A complex variable-based quadrilateral user element (UEL) subroutine implementing the power law creep constitutive formulation was incorporated within the Abaqus commercial finite element software. The results of the complex finite element computations were verified by comparing them to the reference solution for the steady-state creep problem of a thick-walled cylinder in the power law creep range. A practical application of the ZFEM implementation to creep deformation analysis is the calculation of the skeletal point of a notched bar test from a single ZFEM run. In contrast, the standard finite element procedure requires multiple runs. The value of the skeletal point is that it identifies the location where the stress state is accurate, regardless of the certainty of the creep material properties. - Highlights: • A novel finite element sensitivity method (ZFEM) for creep was introduced. • ZFEM has the capability to calculate accurate partial derivatives. • ZFEM can be used for identification of the skeletal point of creep structures. • ZFEM can be easily implemented in a commercial software, e.g. Abaqus. • ZFEM results were shown to be in excellent agreement with analytical solutions

  16. Proteomic identification of early salicylate- and flg22-responsive redox-sensitive proteins in Arabidopsis

    KAUST Repository

    Liu, Peng

    2015-02-27

    Accumulation of reactive oxygen species (ROS) is one of the early defense responses against pathogen infection in plants. The mechanism about the initial and direct regulation of the defense signaling pathway by ROS remains elusive. Perturbation of cellular redox homeostasis by ROS is believed to alter functions of redox-sensitive proteins through their oxidative modifications. Here we report an OxiTRAQ-based proteomic study in identifying proteins whose cysteines underwent oxidative modifications in Arabidopsis cells during the early response to salicylate or flg22, two defense pathway elicitors that are known to disturb cellular redox homeostasis. Among the salicylate- and/or flg22-responsive redox-sensitive proteins are those involved in transcriptional regulation, chromatin remodeling, RNA processing, post-translational modifications, and nucleocytoplasmic shuttling. The identification of the salicylate-/flg22-responsive redox-sensitive proteins provides a foundation from which further study can be conducted toward understanding biological significance of their oxidative modifications during the plant defense response.

  17. A general first-order global sensitivity analysis method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xu Chonggang; Gertner, George Zdzislaw

    2008-01-01

    Fourier amplitude sensitivity test (FAST) is one of the most popular global sensitivity analysis techniques. The main mechanism of FAST is to assign each parameter with a characteristic frequency through a search function. Then, for a specific parameter, the variance contribution can be singled out of the model output by the characteristic frequency. Although FAST has been widely applied, there are two limitations: (1) the aliasing effect among parameters by using integer characteristic frequencies and (2) the suitability for only models with independent parameters. In this paper, we synthesize the improvement to overcome the aliasing effect limitation [Tarantola S, Gatelli D, Mara TA. Random balance designs for the estimation of first order global sensitivity indices. Reliab Eng Syst Safety 2006; 91(6):717-27] and the improvement to overcome the independence limitation [Xu C, Gertner G. Extending a global sensitivity analysis technique to models with correlated parameters. Comput Stat Data Anal 2007, accepted for publication]. In this way, FAST can be a general first-order global sensitivity analysis method for linear/nonlinear models with as many correlated/uncorrelated parameters as the user specifies. We apply the general FAST to four test cases with correlated parameters. The results show that the sensitivity indices derived by the general FAST are in good agreement with the sensitivity indices derived by the correlation ratio method, which is a non-parametric method for models with correlated parameters

  18. Respiratory symptoms, sensitization, and exposure-response relationships in spray painters exposed to isocyanates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pronk, A.; Preller, L.; Raulf-Heimsoth, M.; Jonkers, I.C.L.; Lammers, J.-W.; Wouters, I.M.; Doekes, G.; Wisnewski, A.V.; Heederik, D.

    2007-01-01

    Rationale: Associations between oligomeric isocyanate exposure, sensitization, and respiratory disease have received little attention, despite the extensive use of isocyanate oligomers. Objectives: To investigate exposure-response relationships of respiratory symptoms and sensitization in a large

  19. Time-dependent reliability sensitivity analysis of motion mechanisms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wei, Pengfei; Song, Jingwen; Lu, Zhenzhou; Yue, Zhufeng

    2016-01-01

    Reliability sensitivity analysis aims at identifying the source of structure/mechanism failure, and quantifying the effects of each random source or their distribution parameters on failure probability or reliability. In this paper, the time-dependent parametric reliability sensitivity (PRS) analysis as well as the global reliability sensitivity (GRS) analysis is introduced for the motion mechanisms. The PRS indices are defined as the partial derivatives of the time-dependent reliability w.r.t. the distribution parameters of each random input variable, and they quantify the effect of the small change of each distribution parameter on the time-dependent reliability. The GRS indices are defined for quantifying the individual, interaction and total contributions of the uncertainty in each random input variable to the time-dependent reliability. The envelope function method combined with the first order approximation of the motion error function is introduced for efficiently estimating the time-dependent PRS and GRS indices. Both the time-dependent PRS and GRS analysis techniques can be especially useful for reliability-based design. This significance of the proposed methods as well as the effectiveness of the envelope function method for estimating the time-dependent PRS and GRS indices are demonstrated with a four-bar mechanism and a car rack-and-pinion steering linkage. - Highlights: • Time-dependent parametric reliability sensitivity analysis is presented. • Time-dependent global reliability sensitivity analysis is presented for mechanisms. • The proposed method is especially useful for enhancing the kinematic reliability. • An envelope method is introduced for efficiently implementing the proposed methods. • The proposed method is demonstrated by two real planar mechanisms.

  20. Relative sensitivity analysis of the predictive properties of sloppy models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myasnikova, Ekaterina; Spirov, Alexander

    2018-01-25

    Commonly among the model parameters characterizing complex biological systems are those that do not significantly influence the quality of the fit to experimental data, so-called "sloppy" parameters. The sloppiness can be mathematically expressed through saturating response functions (Hill's, sigmoid) thereby embodying biological mechanisms responsible for the system robustness to external perturbations. However, if a sloppy model is used for the prediction of the system behavior at the altered input (e.g. knock out mutations, natural expression variability), it may demonstrate the poor predictive power due to the ambiguity in the parameter estimates. We introduce a method of the predictive power evaluation under the parameter estimation uncertainty, Relative Sensitivity Analysis. The prediction problem is addressed in the context of gene circuit models describing the dynamics of segmentation gene expression in Drosophila embryo. Gene regulation in these models is introduced by a saturating sigmoid function of the concentrations of the regulatory gene products. We show how our approach can be applied to characterize the essential difference between the sensitivity properties of robust and non-robust solutions and select among the existing solutions those providing the correct system behavior at any reasonable input. In general, the method allows to uncover the sources of incorrect predictions and proposes the way to overcome the estimation uncertainties.

  1. The Sensitivity to Change and Responsiveness of the Adult Responses to Children’s Symptoms in Children and Adolescents With Chronic Pain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alberts, Nicole; Langer, Shelby L.; Levy, Rona L.; Walker, Lynn S.; Palermo, Tonya M.

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Objective  To examine the sensitivity to change and responsiveness of the Adult Responses to Children’s Symptoms (ARCS) among parents of youth with chronic pain.  Methods  Participants included 330 youth (89 children aged 7–11 years, 241 children aged 12–17 years) and their parents who participated in randomized controlled trials of family-based cognitive-behavioral therapy for chronic pain. Child pain and disability, parental emotional functioning, and parental responses to child pain were assessed at baseline and posttreatment.  Results  The Protect and Monitor scales of the ARCS were sensitive to change following intervention for both developmental groups, with clinically meaningful reductions in these behaviors, thereby demonstrating responsiveness. Among the adolescent sample, greater change on some ARCS scales was associated with better parental emotional functioning and lower child pain at posttreatment.  Conclusions  Findings support the sensitivity to change and responsiveness of the Protect and Monitor scales among parents of youth with chronic pain. PMID:26493601

  2. Sensitivity analysis methods and a biosphere test case implemented in EIKOS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ekstroem, P.A.; Broed, R. [Facilia AB, Stockholm, (Sweden)

    2006-05-15

    Computer-based models can be used to approximate real life processes. These models are usually based on mathematical equations, which are dependent on several variables. The predictive capability of models is therefore limited by the uncertainty in the value of these. Sensitivity analysis is used to apportion the relative importance each uncertain input parameter has on the output variation. Sensitivity analysis is therefore an essential tool in simulation modelling and for performing risk assessments. Simple sensitivity analysis techniques based on fitting the output to a linear equation are often used, for example correlation or linear regression coefficients. These methods work well for linear models, but for non-linear models their sensitivity estimations are not accurate. Usually models of complex natural systems are non-linear. Within the scope of this work, various sensitivity analysis methods, which can cope with linear, non-linear, as well as non-monotone problems, have been implemented, in a software package, EIKOS, written in Matlab language. The following sensitivity analysis methods are supported by EIKOS: Pearson product moment correlation coefficient (CC), Spearman Rank Correlation Coefficient (RCC), Partial (Rank) Correlation Coefficients (PCC), Standardized (Rank) Regression Coefficients (SRC), Sobol' method, Jansen's alternative, Extended Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test (EFAST) as well as the classical FAST method and the Smirnov and the Cramer-von Mises tests. A graphical user interface has also been developed, from which the user easily can load or call the model and perform a sensitivity analysis as well as uncertainty analysis. The implemented sensitivity analysis methods has been benchmarked with well-known test functions and compared with other sensitivity analysis software, with successful results. An illustration of the applicability of EIKOS is added to the report. The test case used is a landscape model consisting of several

  3. Sensitivity analysis methods and a biosphere test case implemented in EIKOS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ekstroem, P.A.; Broed, R.

    2006-05-01

    Computer-based models can be used to approximate real life processes. These models are usually based on mathematical equations, which are dependent on several variables. The predictive capability of models is therefore limited by the uncertainty in the value of these. Sensitivity analysis is used to apportion the relative importance each uncertain input parameter has on the output variation. Sensitivity analysis is therefore an essential tool in simulation modelling and for performing risk assessments. Simple sensitivity analysis techniques based on fitting the output to a linear equation are often used, for example correlation or linear regression coefficients. These methods work well for linear models, but for non-linear models their sensitivity estimations are not accurate. Usually models of complex natural systems are non-linear. Within the scope of this work, various sensitivity analysis methods, which can cope with linear, non-linear, as well as non-monotone problems, have been implemented, in a software package, EIKOS, written in Matlab language. The following sensitivity analysis methods are supported by EIKOS: Pearson product moment correlation coefficient (CC), Spearman Rank Correlation Coefficient (RCC), Partial (Rank) Correlation Coefficients (PCC), Standardized (Rank) Regression Coefficients (SRC), Sobol' method, Jansen's alternative, Extended Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test (EFAST) as well as the classical FAST method and the Smirnov and the Cramer-von Mises tests. A graphical user interface has also been developed, from which the user easily can load or call the model and perform a sensitivity analysis as well as uncertainty analysis. The implemented sensitivity analysis methods has been benchmarked with well-known test functions and compared with other sensitivity analysis software, with successful results. An illustration of the applicability of EIKOS is added to the report. The test case used is a landscape model consisting of several linked

  4. Analysis of responsive characteristics of ionic-strength-sensitive hydrogel with consideration of effect of equilibrium constant by a chemo-electro-mechanical model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Hua; Lai, Fukun; Luo, Rongmo

    2009-11-17

    A multiphysics model is presented in this paper for analysis of the influence of various equilibrium constants on the smart hydrogel responsive to the ionic strength of environmental solution, and termed the multieffect-coupling ionic-strength stimulus (MECis) model. The model is characterized by a set of partial differential governing equations by consideration of the mass and momentum conservations of the system and coupled chemical, electrical, and mechanical multienergy domains. The Nernst-Planck equations are derived by the mass conservation of the ionic species in both the interstitial fluid of the hydrogel and the surrounding solution. The binding reaction between the fixed charge groups of the hydrogel and the mobile ions in the solution is described by the fixed charge equation, which is based on the Langmuir monolayer theory. As an important effect for the binding reaction, the equilibrium constant is incorporated into the fixed charge equation. The kinetics of the hydrogel swelling/deswelling is illustrated by the mechanical equation, based on the law of momentum conservation for the solid polymeric networks matrix within the hydrogel. The MECis model is examined by comparison of the numerical simulations and experiments from open literature. The analysis of the influence of different equilibrium constants on the responsive characteristics of the ionic-strength-sensitive hydrogel is carried out with detailed discussion.

  5. Visual Analysis of Tumor Control Models for Prediction of Radiotherapy Response

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Raidou, Renata G.; Casares Magaz, Oscar; Muren, Ludvig

    2016-01-01

    on TCP modeling, to explore the information provided by their models, to discover new knowledge and to confirm or generate hypotheses within their data. Our approach incorporates the following four main components: (1) It supports the exploration of uncertainty and its effect on TCP models; (2...... impact on the modeling outcome, while the models are sensitive to a number of parameter assumptions. Currently, uncertainty and parameter sensitivity are not incorporated in the analysis, due to time and resource constraints. To this end, we propose a visual tool that enables clinical researchers working......) It facilitates parameter sensitivity anal- ysis to common assumptions; (3) It enables the identification of inter-patient response variability; (4) It allows starting the analysis from the desired treatment outcome, to identify treatment strategies that achieve it. We con- ducted an evaluation with nine clinical...

  6. Survey of sampling-based methods for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Helton, J.C.; Johnson, J.D.; Sallaberry, C.J.; Storlie, C.B.

    2006-01-01

    Sampling-based methods for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis are reviewed. The following topics are considered: (i) definition of probability distributions to characterize epistemic uncertainty in analysis inputs (ii) generation of samples from uncertain analysis inputs (iii) propagation of sampled inputs through an analysis (iv) presentation of uncertainty analysis results, and (v) determination of sensitivity analysis results. Special attention is given to the determination of sensitivity analysis results, with brief descriptions and illustrations given for the following procedures/techniques: examination of scatterplots, correlation analysis, regression analysis, partial correlation analysis, rank transformations, statistical tests for patterns based on gridding, entropy tests for patterns based on gridding, nonparametric regression analysis, squared rank differences/rank correlation coefficient test, two-dimensional Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, tests for patterns based on distance measures, top down coefficient of concordance, and variance decomposition

  7. Survey of sampling-based methods for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johnson, Jay Dean; Helton, Jon Craig; Sallaberry, Cedric J. PhD. (.; .); Storlie, Curt B. (Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO)

    2006-06-01

    Sampling-based methods for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis are reviewed. The following topics are considered: (1) Definition of probability distributions to characterize epistemic uncertainty in analysis inputs, (2) Generation of samples from uncertain analysis inputs, (3) Propagation of sampled inputs through an analysis, (4) Presentation of uncertainty analysis results, and (5) Determination of sensitivity analysis results. Special attention is given to the determination of sensitivity analysis results, with brief descriptions and illustrations given for the following procedures/techniques: examination of scatterplots, correlation analysis, regression analysis, partial correlation analysis, rank transformations, statistical tests for patterns based on gridding, entropy tests for patterns based on gridding, nonparametric regression analysis, squared rank differences/rank correlation coefficient test, two dimensional Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, tests for patterns based on distance measures, top down coefficient of concordance, and variance decomposition.

  8. Systemization of burnup sensitivity analysis code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tatsumi, Masahiro; Hyoudou, Hideaki

    2004-02-01

    To practical use of fact reactors, it is a very important subject to improve prediction accuracy for neutronic properties in LMFBR cores from the viewpoints of improvements on plant efficiency with rationally high performance cores and that on reliability and safety margins. A distinct improvement on accuracy in nuclear core design has been accomplished by development of adjusted nuclear library using the cross-section adjustment method, in which the results of critical experiments of JUPITER and so on are reflected. In the design of large LMFBR cores, however, it is important to accurately estimate not only neutronic characteristics, for example, reaction rate distribution and control rod worth but also burnup characteristics, for example, burnup reactivity loss, breeding ratio and so on. For this purpose, it is desired to improve prediction accuracy of burnup characteristics using the data widely obtained in actual core such as the experimental fast reactor core 'JOYO'. The analysis of burnup characteristics is needed to effectively use burnup characteristics data in the actual cores based on the cross-section adjustment method. So far, development of a analysis code for burnup sensitivity, SAGEP-BURN, has been done and confirmed its effectiveness. However, there is a problem that analysis sequence become inefficient because of a big burden to user due to complexity of the theory of burnup sensitivity and limitation of the system. It is also desired to rearrange the system for future revision since it is becoming difficult to implement new functionalities in the existing large system. It is not sufficient to unify each computational component for some reasons; computational sequence may be changed for each item being analyzed or for purpose such as interpretation of physical meaning. Therefore it is needed to systemize the current code for burnup sensitivity analysis with component blocks of functionality that can be divided or constructed on occasion. For this

  9. Methylation-sensitive amplified polymorphism analysis of Verticillium wilt-stressed cotton (Gossypium).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, W; Zhang, M; Chen, H D; Cai, X X; Xu, M L; Lei, K Y; Niu, J H; Deng, L; Liu, J; Ge, Z J; Yu, S X; Wang, B H

    2016-10-06

    In this study, a methylation-sensitive amplification polymorphism analysis system was used to analyze DNA methylation level in three cotton accessions. Two disease-sensitive near-isogenic lines, PD94042 and IL41, and one disease-resistant Gossypium mustelinum accession were exposed to Verticillium wilt, to investigate molecular disease resistance mechanisms in cotton. We observed multiple different DNA methylation types across the three accessions following Verticillium wilt exposure. These included hypomethylation, hypermethylation, and other patterns. In general, the global DNA methylation level was significantly increased in the disease-resistant accession G. mustelinum following disease exposure. In contrast, there was no significant difference in the disease-sensitive accession PD94042, and a significant decrease was observed in IL41. Our results suggest that disease-resistant cotton might employ a mechanism to increase methylation level in response to disease stress. The differing methylation patterns, together with the increase in global DNA methylation level, might play important roles in tolerance to Verticillium wilt in cotton. Through cloning and analysis of differently methylated DNA sequences, we were also able to identify several genes that may contribute to disease resistance in cotton. Our results revealed the effect of DNA methylation on cotton disease resistance, and also identified genes that played important roles, which may shed light on the future cotton disease-resistant molecular breeding.

  10. Discrete non-parametric kernel estimation for global sensitivity analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Senga Kiessé, Tristan; Ventura, Anne

    2016-01-01

    This work investigates the discrete kernel approach for evaluating the contribution of the variance of discrete input variables to the variance of model output, via analysis of variance (ANOVA) decomposition. Until recently only the continuous kernel approach has been applied as a metamodeling approach within sensitivity analysis framework, for both discrete and continuous input variables. Now the discrete kernel estimation is known to be suitable for smoothing discrete functions. We present a discrete non-parametric kernel estimator of ANOVA decomposition of a given model. An estimator of sensitivity indices is also presented with its asymtotic convergence rate. Some simulations on a test function analysis and a real case study from agricultural have shown that the discrete kernel approach outperforms the continuous kernel one for evaluating the contribution of moderate or most influential discrete parameters to the model output. - Highlights: • We study a discrete kernel estimation for sensitivity analysis of a model. • A discrete kernel estimator of ANOVA decomposition of the model is presented. • Sensitivity indices are calculated for discrete input parameters. • An estimator of sensitivity indices is also presented with its convergence rate. • An application is realized for improving the reliability of environmental models.

  11. Protein Profiles Reveal Diverse Responsive Signaling Pathways in Kernels of Two Maize Inbred Lines with Contrasting Drought Sensitivity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liming Yang

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Drought stress is a major factor that contributes to disease susceptibility and yield loss in agricultural crops. To identify drought responsive proteins and explore metabolic pathways involved in maize tolerance to drought stress, two maize lines (B73 and Lo964 with contrasting drought sensitivity were examined. The treatments of drought and well water were applied at 14 days after pollination (DAP, and protein profiles were investigated in developing kernels (35 DAP using iTRAQ (isobaric tags for relative and absolute quantitation. Proteomic analysis showed that 70 and 36 proteins were significantly altered in their expression under drought treatments in B73 and Lo964, respectively. The numbers and levels of differentially expressed proteins were generally higher in the sensitive genotype, B73, implying an increased sensitivity to drought given the function of the observed differentially expressed proteins, such as redox homeostasis, cell rescue/defense, hormone regulation and protein biosynthesis and degradation. Lo964 possessed a more stable status with fewer differentially expressed proteins. However, B73 seems to rapidly initiate signaling pathways in response to drought through adjusting diverse defense pathways. These changes in protein expression allow for the production of a drought stress-responsive network in maize kernels.

  12. Beyond sensitivity analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lund, Henrik; Sorknæs, Peter; Mathiesen, Brian Vad

    2018-01-01

    of electricity, which have been introduced in recent decades. These uncertainties pose a challenge to the design and assessment of future energy strategies and investments, especially in the economic assessment of renewable energy versus business-as-usual scenarios based on fossil fuels. From a methodological...... point of view, the typical way of handling this challenge has been to predict future prices as accurately as possible and then conduct a sensitivity analysis. This paper includes a historical analysis of such predictions, leading to the conclusion that they are almost always wrong. Not only...... are they wrong in their prediction of price levels, but also in the sense that they always seem to predict a smooth growth or decrease. This paper introduces a new method and reports the results of applying it on the case of energy scenarios for Denmark. The method implies the expectation of fluctuating fuel...

  13. Risk Characterization uncertainties associated description, sensitivity analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carrillo, M.; Tovar, M.; Alvarez, J.; Arraez, M.; Hordziejewicz, I.; Loreto, I.

    2013-01-01

    The power point presentation is about risks to the estimated levels of exposure, uncertainty and variability in the analysis, sensitivity analysis, risks from exposure to multiple substances, formulation of guidelines for carcinogenic and genotoxic compounds and risk subpopulations

  14. Individual differences in metacontrast masking regarding sensitivity and response bias.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albrecht, Thorsten; Mattler, Uwe

    2012-09-01

    In metacontrast masking target visibility is modulated by the time until a masking stimulus appears. The effect of this temporal delay differs across participants in such a way that individual human observers' performance shows distinguishable types of masking functions which remain largely unchanged for months. Here we examined whether individual differences in masking functions depend on different response criteria in addition to differences in discrimination sensitivity. To this end we reanalyzed previously published data and conducted a new experiment for further data analyses. Our analyses demonstrate that a distinction of masking functions based on the type of masking stimulus is superior to a distinction based on the target-mask congruency. Individually different masking functions are based on individual differences in discrimination sensitivities and in response criteria. Results suggest that individual differences in metacontrast masking result from individually different criterion contents. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Overview of methods for uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis in probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iman, R.L.; Helton, J.C.

    1985-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is playing an increasingly important role in the nuclear reactor regulatory process. The assessment of uncertainties associated with PRA results is widely recognized as an important part of the analysis process. One of the major criticisms of the Reactor Safety Study was that its representation of uncertainty was inadequate. The desire for the capability to treat uncertainties with the MELCOR risk code being developed at Sandia National Laboratories is indicative of the current interest in this topic. However, as yet, uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis in the context of PRA is a relatively immature field. In this paper, available methods for uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis in a PRA are reviewed. This review first treats methods for use with individual components of a PRA and then considers how these methods could be combined in the performance of a complete PRA. In the context of this paper, the goal of uncertainty analysis is to measure the imprecision in PRA outcomes of interest, and the goal of sensitivity analysis is to identify the major contributors to this imprecision. There are a number of areas that must be considered in uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis for a PRA: (1) information, (2) systems analysis, (3) thermal-hydraulic phenomena/fission product behavior, (4) health and economic consequences, and (5) display of results. Each of these areas and the synthesis of them into a complete PRA are discussed

  16. Calculating the sensitivity of wind turbine loads to wind inputs using response surfaces

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rinker, Jennifer M.

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents a methodology to calculate wind turbine load sensitivities to turbulence parameters through the use of response surfaces. A response surface is a highdimensional polynomial surface that can be calibrated to any set of input/output data and then used to generate synthetic data at a low computational cost. Sobol sensitivity indices (SIs) can then be calculated with relative ease using the calibrated response surface. The proposed methodology is demonstrated by calculating the total sensitivity of the maximum blade root bending moment of the WindPACT 5 MW reference model to four turbulence input parameters: a reference mean wind speed, a reference turbulence intensity, the Kaimal length scale, and a novel parameter reflecting the nonstationarity present in the inflow turbulence. The input/output data used to calibrate the response surface were generated for a previous project. The fit of the calibrated response surface is evaluated in terms of error between the model and the training data and in terms of the convergence. The Sobol SIs are calculated using the calibrated response surface, and the convergence is examined. The Sobol SIs reveal that, of the four turbulence parameters examined in this paper, the variance caused by the Kaimal length scale and nonstationarity parameter are negligible. Thus, the findings in this paper represent the first systematic evidence that stochastic wind turbine load response statistics can be modeled purely by mean wind wind speed and turbulence intensity. (paper)

  17. Sensitivity Analysis for Design Optimization Integrated Software Tools, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The objective of this proposed project is to provide a new set of sensitivity analysis theory and codes, the Sensitivity Analysis for Design Optimization Integrated...

  18. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the nuclear fuel thermal behavior

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boulore, A., E-mail: antoine.boulore@cea.fr [Commissariat a l' Energie Atomique (CEA), DEN, Fuel Research Department, 13108 Saint-Paul-lez-Durance (France); Struzik, C. [Commissariat a l' Energie Atomique (CEA), DEN, Fuel Research Department, 13108 Saint-Paul-lez-Durance (France); Gaudier, F. [Commissariat a l' Energie Atomique (CEA), DEN, Systems and Structure Modeling Department, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette (France)

    2012-12-15

    Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer A complete quantitative method for uncertainty propagation and sensitivity analysis is applied. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The thermal conductivity of UO{sub 2} is modeled as a random variable. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The first source of uncertainty is the linear heat rate. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The second source of uncertainty is the thermal conductivity of the fuel. - Abstract: In the global framework of nuclear fuel behavior simulation, the response of the models describing the physical phenomena occurring during the irradiation in reactor is mainly conditioned by the confidence in the calculated temperature of the fuel. Amongst all parameters influencing the temperature calculation in our fuel rod simulation code (METEOR V2), several sources of uncertainty have been identified as being the most sensitive: thermal conductivity of UO{sub 2}, radial distribution of power in the fuel pellet, local linear heat rate in the fuel rod, geometry of the pellet and thermal transfer in the gap. Expert judgment and inverse methods have been used to model the uncertainty of these parameters using theoretical distributions and correlation matrices. Propagation of these uncertainties in the METEOR V2 code using the URANIE framework and a Monte-Carlo technique has been performed in different experimental irradiations of UO{sub 2} fuel. At every time step of the simulated experiments, we get a temperature statistical distribution which results from the initial distributions of the uncertain parameters. We then can estimate confidence intervals of the calculated temperature. In order to quantify the sensitivity of the calculated temperature to each of the uncertain input parameters and data, we have also performed a sensitivity analysis using the Sobol' indices at first order.

  19. Application of Stochastic Sensitivity Analysis to Integrated Force Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    X. F. Wei

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available As a new formulation in structural analysis, Integrated Force Method has been successfully applied to many structures for civil, mechanical, and aerospace engineering due to the accurate estimate of forces in computation. Right now, it is being further extended to the probabilistic domain. For the assessment of uncertainty effect in system optimization and identification, the probabilistic sensitivity analysis of IFM was further investigated in this study. A set of stochastic sensitivity analysis formulation of Integrated Force Method was developed using the perturbation method. Numerical examples are presented to illustrate its application. Its efficiency and accuracy were also substantiated with direct Monte Carlo simulations and the reliability-based sensitivity method. The numerical algorithm was shown to be readily adaptable to the existing program since the models of stochastic finite element and stochastic design sensitivity are almost identical.

  20. Carbon dioxide capture processes: Simulation, design and sensitivity analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zaman, Muhammad; Lee, Jay Hyung; Gani, Rafiqul

    2012-01-01

    equilibrium and associated property models are used. Simulations are performed to investigate the sensitivity of the process variables to change in the design variables including process inputs and disturbances in the property model parameters. Results of the sensitivity analysis on the steady state...... performance of the process to the L/G ratio to the absorber, CO2 lean solvent loadings, and striper pressure are presented in this paper. Based on the sensitivity analysis process optimization problems have been defined and solved and, a preliminary control structure selection has been made.......Carbon dioxide is the main greenhouse gas and its major source is combustion of fossil fuels for power generation. The objective of this study is to carry out the steady-state sensitivity analysis for chemical absorption of carbon dioxide capture from flue gas using monoethanolamine solvent. First...

  1. Simulation-Based Stochastic Sensitivity Analysis of a Mach 4.5 Mixed-Compression Intake Performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kato, H.; Ito, K.

    2009-01-01

    A sensitivity analysis of a supersonic mixed-compression intake of a variable-cycle turbine-based combined cycle (TBCC) engine is presented. The TBCC engine is de- signed to power a long-range Mach 4.5 transport capable of antipodal missions studied in the framework of an EU FP6 project, LAPCAT. The nominal intake geometry was designed using DLR abpi cycle analysis pro- gram by taking into account various operating require- ments of a typical mission profile. The intake consists of two movable external compression ramps followed by an isolator section with bleed channel. The compressed air is then diffused through a rectangular-to-circular subsonic diffuser. A multi-block Reynolds-averaged Navier- Stokes (RANS) solver with Srinivasan-Tannehill equilibrium air model was used to compute the total pressure recovery and mass capture fraction. While RANS simulation of the nominal intake configuration provides more realistic performance characteristics of the intake than the cycle analysis program, the intake design must also take into account in-flight uncertainties for robust intake performance. In this study, we focus on the effects of the geometric uncertainties on pressure recovery and mass capture fraction, and propose a practical approach to simulation-based sensitivity analysis. The method begins by constructing a light-weight analytical model, a radial-basis function (RBF) network, trained via adaptively sampled RANS simulation results. Using the RBF network as the response surface approximation, stochastic sensitivity analysis is performed using analysis of variance (ANOVA) technique by Sobol. This approach makes it possible to perform a generalized multi-input- multi-output sensitivity analysis based on high-fidelity RANS simulation. The resulting Sobol's influence indices allow the engineer to identify dominant parameters as well as the degree of interaction among multiple parameters, which can then be fed back into the design cycle.

  2. Contributions to sensitivity analysis and generalized discriminant analysis; Contributions a l'analyse de sensibilite et a l'analyse discriminante generalisee

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jacques, J

    2005-12-15

    Two topics are studied in this thesis: sensitivity analysis and generalized discriminant analysis. Global sensitivity analysis of a mathematical model studies how the output variables of this last react to variations of its inputs. The methods based on the study of the variance quantify the part of variance of the response of the model due to each input variable and each subset of input variables. The first subject of this thesis is the impact of a model uncertainty on results of a sensitivity analysis. Two particular forms of uncertainty are studied: that due to a change of the model of reference, and that due to the use of a simplified model with the place of the model of reference. A second problem was studied during this thesis, that of models with correlated inputs. Indeed, classical sensitivity indices not having significance (from an interpretation point of view) in the presence of correlation of the inputs, we propose a multidimensional approach consisting in expressing the sensitivity of the output of the model to groups of correlated variables. Applications in the field of nuclear engineering illustrate this work. Generalized discriminant analysis consists in classifying the individuals of a test sample in groups, by using information contained in a training sample, when these two samples do not come from the same population. This work extends existing methods in a Gaussian context to the case of binary data. An application in public health illustrates the utility of generalized discrimination models thus defined. (author)

  3. Sensitivity analysis of parameters important to nuclear criticality safety of Castor X/28F spent nuclear fuel cask

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leotlela, Mosebetsi J. [Witwatersrand Univ., Johannesburg (South Africa). School of Physics; Koeberg Operating Unit, Johannesburg (South Africa). Regulations and Licensing; Malgas, Isaac [Koeberg Nuclear Power Station, Duinefontein (South Africa). Nuclear Engineering Analysis; Taviv, Eugene [ASARA consultants (PTY) LTD, Johannesburg (South Africa)

    2015-11-15

    In nuclear criticality safety analysis it is essential to ascertain how various components of the nuclear system will perform under certain conditions they may be subjected to, particularly if the components of the system are likely to be affected by environmental factors such as temperature, radiation or material composition. It is therefore prudent that a sensitivity analysis is performed to determine and quantify the response of the output to variation in any of the input parameters. In a fissile system, the output parameter of importance is the k{sub eff}. Therefore, in attempting to prevent reactivity-induced accidents, it is important for the criticality safety analyst to have a quantified degree of response for the neutron multiplication factor to perturbation in a given input parameter. This article will present the results of the perturbation of the parameters that are important to nuclear criticality safety analysis and their respective correlation equations for deriving the sensitivity coefficients.

  4. Global sensitivity analysis in stochastic simulators of uncertain reaction networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Navarro Jimenez, M; Le Maître, O P; Knio, O M

    2016-12-28

    Stochastic models of chemical systems are often subjected to uncertainties in kinetic parameters in addition to the inherent random nature of their dynamics. Uncertainty quantification in such systems is generally achieved by means of sensitivity analyses in which one characterizes the variability with the uncertain kinetic parameters of the first statistical moments of model predictions. In this work, we propose an original global sensitivity analysis method where the parametric and inherent variability sources are both treated through Sobol's decomposition of the variance into contributions from arbitrary subset of uncertain parameters and stochastic reaction channels. The conceptual development only assumes that the inherent and parametric sources are independent, and considers the Poisson processes in the random-time-change representation of the state dynamics as the fundamental objects governing the inherent stochasticity. A sampling algorithm is proposed to perform the global sensitivity analysis, and to estimate the partial variances and sensitivity indices characterizing the importance of the various sources of variability and their interactions. The birth-death and Schlögl models are used to illustrate both the implementation of the algorithm and the richness of the proposed analysis method. The output of the proposed sensitivity analysis is also contrasted with a local derivative-based sensitivity analysis method classically used for this type of systems.

  5. Global sensitivity analysis in stochastic simulators of uncertain reaction networks

    KAUST Repository

    Navarro, María

    2016-12-26

    Stochastic models of chemical systems are often subjected to uncertainties in kinetic parameters in addition to the inherent random nature of their dynamics. Uncertainty quantification in such systems is generally achieved by means of sensitivity analyses in which one characterizes the variability with the uncertain kinetic parameters of the first statistical moments of model predictions. In this work, we propose an original global sensitivity analysis method where the parametric and inherent variability sources are both treated through Sobol’s decomposition of the variance into contributions from arbitrary subset of uncertain parameters and stochastic reaction channels. The conceptual development only assumes that the inherent and parametric sources are independent, and considers the Poisson processes in the random-time-change representation of the state dynamics as the fundamental objects governing the inherent stochasticity. A sampling algorithm is proposed to perform the global sensitivity analysis, and to estimate the partial variances and sensitivity indices characterizing the importance of the various sources of variability and their interactions. The birth-death and Schlögl models are used to illustrate both the implementation of the algorithm and the richness of the proposed analysis method. The output of the proposed sensitivity analysis is also contrasted with a local derivative-based sensitivity analysis method classically used for this type of systems.

  6. Evaluation of the Potential Sensitization of Chlorogenic Acid: A Meta-Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mingbao Lin

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Chlorogenic acid (CGA widely exists in many plants, which are used as medicinal substances in traditional Chinese medicine injectables (TCMIs that have been widely applied in clinical treatments. However, it is still controversial whether CGA is responsible for TCMIs-related hypersensitivity. Several studies have been performed to evaluate its potential sensitization property, but the results were inconclusive. Therefore, the aim of this study was to evaluate its potential sensitization systematically using meta-analysis based on data extracted from literatures, searching databases of PubMed, EMBASE, ISI Web of Knowledge, CNKI, VIP, and CHINAINFO from January 1979 to October 2012, a total of 108 articles were retrieved by electronic search strategy, out of which 13 studies met the inclusion criteria. In ASA test, odds ratio of behavior changes was 4.33 (1.62, 11.60, showing significant changes after CGA treatment (P=0.004. Serum IgG, serum histamine, PLN cellularity, and IgG1 AFCs were significantly enhanced after CGA treatment (P<0.05. Totally, these results indicated that CGA could induce a positive reaction in potential sensitization, and intravenous administration of it might be a key factor for sensitization triggering, which could at least warrant more careful application of TCMIs containing CGA in clinical practices.

  7. Silencing of Taxol-Sensitizer Genes in Cancer Cells: Lack of Sensitization Effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang, Shang-Lang; Chao, Chuck C.-K.

    2015-01-01

    A previous genome-wide screening analysis identified a panel of genes that sensitize the human non-small-cell lung carcinoma cell line NCI-H1155 to taxol. However, whether the identified genes sensitize other cancer cells to taxol has not been examined. Here, we silenced the taxol-sensitizer genes identified (acrbp, atp6v0d2, fgd4, hs6st2, psma6, and tubgcp2) in nine other cancer cell types (including lung, cervical, ovarian, and hepatocellular carcinoma cell lines) that showed reduced cell viability in the presence of a sub-lethal concentration of taxol. Surprisingly, none of the genes studied increased sensitivity to taxol in the tested panel of cell lines. As observed in H1155 cells, SKOV3 cells displayed induction of five of the six genes studied in response to a cell killing dose of taxol. The other cell types were much less responsive to taxol. Notably, four of the five inducible taxol-sensitizer genes tested (acrbp, atp6v0d2, psma6, and tubgcp2) were upregulated in a taxol-resistant ovarian cancer cell line. These results indicate that the previously identified taxol-sensitizer loci are not conserved genetic targets involved in inhibiting cell proliferation in response to taxol. Our findings also suggest that regulation of taxol-sensitizer genes by taxol may be critical for acquired cell resistance to the drug

  8. Silencing of Taxol-Sensitizer Genes in Cancer Cells: Lack of Sensitization Effects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huang, Shang-Lang [Department of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, College of Medicine, Chang Gung University, Taoyuan 333, Taiwan (China); Chao, Chuck C.-K., E-mail: cckchao@mail.cgu.edu.tw [Department of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, College of Medicine, Chang Gung University, Taoyuan 333, Taiwan (China); Graduate Institute of Biomedical Sciences, College of Medicine, Chang Gung University, Taoyuan 333, Taiwan (China); Department of Medical Research and Development, Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Taoyuan 333, Taiwan (China)

    2015-06-16

    A previous genome-wide screening analysis identified a panel of genes that sensitize the human non-small-cell lung carcinoma cell line NCI-H1155 to taxol. However, whether the identified genes sensitize other cancer cells to taxol has not been examined. Here, we silenced the taxol-sensitizer genes identified (acrbp, atp6v0d2, fgd4, hs6st2, psma6, and tubgcp2) in nine other cancer cell types (including lung, cervical, ovarian, and hepatocellular carcinoma cell lines) that showed reduced cell viability in the presence of a sub-lethal concentration of taxol. Surprisingly, none of the genes studied increased sensitivity to taxol in the tested panel of cell lines. As observed in H1155 cells, SKOV3 cells displayed induction of five of the six genes studied in response to a cell killing dose of taxol. The other cell types were much less responsive to taxol. Notably, four of the five inducible taxol-sensitizer genes tested (acrbp, atp6v0d2, psma6, and tubgcp2) were upregulated in a taxol-resistant ovarian cancer cell line. These results indicate that the previously identified taxol-sensitizer loci are not conserved genetic targets involved in inhibiting cell proliferation in response to taxol. Our findings also suggest that regulation of taxol-sensitizer genes by taxol may be critical for acquired cell resistance to the drug.

  9. Allergen Sensitization Pattern by Sex: A Cluster Analysis in Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohn, Jungyoon; Paik, Seung Hwan; Doh, Eun Jin; Park, Hyun-Sun; Yoon, Hyun-Sun; Cho, Soyun

    2017-12-01

    Allergens tend to sensitize simultaneously. Etiology of this phenomenon has been suggested to be allergen cross-reactivity or concurrent exposure. However, little is known about specific allergen sensitization patterns. To investigate the allergen sensitization characteristics according to gender. Multiple allergen simultaneous test (MAST) is widely used as a screening tool for detecting allergen sensitization in dermatologic clinics. We retrospectively reviewed the medical records of patients with MAST results between 2008 and 2014 in our Department of Dermatology. A cluster analysis was performed to elucidate the allergen-specific immunoglobulin (Ig)E cluster pattern. The results of MAST (39 allergen-specific IgEs) from 4,360 cases were analyzed. By cluster analysis, 39items were grouped into 8 clusters. Each cluster had characteristic features. When compared with female, the male group tended to be sensitized more frequently to all tested allergens, except for fungus allergens cluster. The cluster and comparative analysis results demonstrate that the allergen sensitization is clustered, manifesting allergen similarity or co-exposure. Only the fungus cluster allergens tend to sensitize female group more frequently than male group.

  10. Response matrix method and its application to SCWR single channel stability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhao, Jiyun; Tseng, K.J.; Tso, C.P.

    2011-01-01

    To simulate the reactor system dynamic features during density wave oscillations (DWO), both the non-linear method and the linear method can be used. Although some transient information is lost through model linearization, the high computational efficiency and relatively accurate results make the linear analysis methodology attractive, especially for prediction of the onset of instability. In the linear stability analysis, the system models are simplified through linearization of the complex non-linear differential equations, and then, the linear differential equations are generally solved in the frequency domain through Laplace transformation. In this paper, a system response matrix method was introduced by directly solving the differential equations in the time domain. By using a system response matrix method, the complicated transfer function derivation, which must be done in the frequency domain method, can be avoided. Using the response matrix method, a model was developed and applied to the single channel or parallel channel type instability analyses of the typical proposed SCWR design. The sensitivity of the decay ratio (DR) to the axial mesh size was analyzed and it was found that the DR is not sensitive to mesh size once sufficient number of axial nodes is applied. To demonstrate the effects of the inlet orificing to the stability feature for the supercritical condition, the sensitivity of the stability to inlet orifice coefficient was conducted for hot channel. It is clearly shown that a higher inlet orifice coefficient will make the system more stable. The susceptibility of stability to operating parameters such as mass flow rate, power and system pressure was also performed. And the measure to improve the SCWR stability sensitivity to operating parameters was investigated. It was found that the SCWR stability sensitivity feature can be improved by carefully managing the inlet orifices and choosing proper operating parameters. (author)

  11. SCALE-6 Sensitivity/Uncertainty Methods and Covariance Data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, Mark L.; Rearden, Bradley T.

    2008-01-01

    Computational methods and data used for sensitivity and uncertainty analysis within the SCALE nuclear analysis code system are presented. The methodology used to calculate sensitivity coefficients and similarity coefficients and to perform nuclear data adjustment is discussed. A description is provided of the SCALE-6 covariance library based on ENDF/B-VII and other nuclear data evaluations, supplemented by 'low-fidelity' approximate covariances. SCALE (Standardized Computer Analyses for Licensing Evaluation) is a modular code system developed by Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) to perform calculations for criticality safety, reactor physics, and radiation shielding applications. SCALE calculations typically use sequences that execute a predefined series of executable modules to compute particle fluxes and responses like the critical multiplication factor. SCALE also includes modules for sensitivity and uncertainty (S/U) analysis of calculated responses. The S/U codes in SCALE are collectively referred to as TSUNAMI (Tools for Sensitivity and UNcertainty Analysis Methodology Implementation). SCALE-6-scheduled for release in 2008-contains significant new capabilities, including important enhancements in S/U methods and data. The main functions of TSUNAMI are to (a) compute nuclear data sensitivity coefficients and response uncertainties, (b) establish similarity between benchmark experiments and design applications, and (c) reduce uncertainty in calculated responses by consolidating integral benchmark experiments. TSUNAMI includes easy-to-use graphical user interfaces for defining problem input and viewing three-dimensional (3D) geometries, as well as an integrated plotting package.

  12. Bayesian Sensitivity Analysis of Statistical Models with Missing Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Hongtu; Ibrahim, Joseph G; Tang, Niansheng

    2014-04-01

    Methods for handling missing data depend strongly on the mechanism that generated the missing values, such as missing completely at random (MCAR) or missing at random (MAR), as well as other distributional and modeling assumptions at various stages. It is well known that the resulting estimates and tests may be sensitive to these assumptions as well as to outlying observations. In this paper, we introduce various perturbations to modeling assumptions and individual observations, and then develop a formal sensitivity analysis to assess these perturbations in the Bayesian analysis of statistical models with missing data. We develop a geometric framework, called the Bayesian perturbation manifold, to characterize the intrinsic structure of these perturbations. We propose several intrinsic influence measures to perform sensitivity analysis and quantify the effect of various perturbations to statistical models. We use the proposed sensitivity analysis procedure to systematically investigate the tenability of the non-ignorable missing at random (NMAR) assumption. Simulation studies are conducted to evaluate our methods, and a dataset is analyzed to illustrate the use of our diagnostic measures.

  13. Beyond the GUM: variance-based sensitivity analysis in metrology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lira, I

    2016-01-01

    Variance-based sensitivity analysis is a well established tool for evaluating the contribution of the uncertainties in the inputs to the uncertainty in the output of a general mathematical model. While the literature on this subject is quite extensive, it has not found widespread use in metrological applications. In this article we present a succinct review of the fundamentals of sensitivity analysis, in a form that should be useful to most people familiarized with the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM). Through two examples, it is shown that in linear measurement models, no new knowledge is gained by using sensitivity analysis that is not already available after the terms in the so-called ‘law of propagation of uncertainties’ have been computed. However, if the model behaves non-linearly in the neighbourhood of the best estimates of the input quantities—and if these quantities are assumed to be statistically independent—sensitivity analysis is definitely advantageous for gaining insight into how they can be ranked according to their importance in establishing the uncertainty of the measurand. (paper)

  14. Reward and Punishment Sensitivity in Children with ADHD: Validating the Sensitivity to Punishment and Sensitivity to Reward Questionnaire for Children (SPSRQ-C)

    OpenAIRE

    Luman, Marjolein; van Meel, Catharina S.; Oosterlaan, Jaap; Geurts, Hilde M.

    2011-01-01

    This study validates the Sensitivity to Punishment and Sensitivity to Reward Questionnaire for children (SPSRQ-C), using a Dutch sample of 1234 children between 6-13 years old. Factor analysis determined that a 4-factor and a 5-factor solution were best fitting, explaining 41% and 50% of the variance respectively. The 4-factor model was highly similar to the original SPSRQ factors found in adults (Punishment Sensitivity, Reward Responsivity, Impulsivity/ Fun-Seeking, and Drive). The 5-factor ...

  15. Individual Values and Sensitivity to Corporate Ethical Responsibility of Business Students and Managers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Perrinjaquet, A.; Furrer, O.F.G.

    2005-01-01

    This study investigates the relationship between individual values and sensitivity to corporate ethical responsibility (CER) among current business students and practicing managers. Using Schwartz’s values typology and Maignan and Ferrell’s corporate ethical responsibility operationalization, survey

  16. Rethinking Sensitivity Analysis of Nuclear Simulations with Topology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dan Maljovec; Bei Wang; Paul Rosen; Andrea Alfonsi; Giovanni Pastore; Cristian Rabiti; Valerio Pascucci

    2016-01-01

    In nuclear engineering, understanding the safety margins of the nuclear reactor via simulations is arguably of paramount importance in predicting and preventing nuclear accidents. It is therefore crucial to perform sensitivity analysis to understand how changes in the model inputs affect the outputs. Modern nuclear simulation tools rely on numerical representations of the sensitivity information -- inherently lacking in visual encodings -- offering limited effectiveness in communicating and exploring the generated data. In this paper, we design a framework for sensitivity analysis and visualization of multidimensional nuclear simulation data using partition-based, topology-inspired regression models and report on its efficacy. We rely on the established Morse-Smale regression technique, which allows us to partition the domain into monotonic regions where easily interpretable linear models can be used to assess the influence of inputs on the output variability. The underlying computation is augmented with an intuitive and interactive visual design to effectively communicate sensitivity information to the nuclear scientists. Our framework is being deployed into the multi-purpose probabilistic risk assessment and uncertainty quantification framework RAVEN (Reactor Analysis and Virtual Control Environment). We evaluate our framework using an simulation dataset studying nuclear fuel performance.

  17. Robust prediction of anti-cancer drug sensitivity and sensitivity-specific biomarker.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heewon Park

    Full Text Available The personal genomics era has attracted a large amount of attention for anti-cancer therapy by patient-specific analysis. Patient-specific analysis enables discovery of individual genomic characteristics for each patient, and thus we can effectively predict individual genetic risk of disease and perform personalized anti-cancer therapy. Although the existing methods for patient-specific analysis have successfully uncovered crucial biomarkers, their performance takes a sudden turn for the worst in the presence of outliers, since the methods are based on non-robust manners. In practice, clinical and genomic alterations datasets usually contain outliers from various sources (e.g., experiment error, coding error, etc. and the outliers may significantly affect the result of patient-specific analysis. We propose a robust methodology for patient-specific analysis in line with the NetwrokProfiler. In the proposed method, outliers in high dimensional gene expression levels and drug response datasets are simultaneously controlled by robust Mahalanobis distance in robust principal component space. Thus, we can effectively perform for predicting anti-cancer drug sensitivity and identifying sensitivity-specific biomarkers for individual patients. We observe through Monte Carlo simulations that the proposed robust method produces outstanding performances for predicting response variable in the presence of outliers. We also apply the proposed methodology to the Sanger dataset in order to uncover cancer biomarkers and predict anti-cancer drug sensitivity, and show the effectiveness of our method.

  18. Systemization of burnup sensitivity analysis code. 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tatsumi, Masahiro; Hyoudou, Hideaki

    2005-02-01

    Towards the practical use of fast reactors, it is a very important subject to improve prediction accuracy for neutronic properties in LMFBR cores from the viewpoint of improvements on plant efficiency with rationally high performance cores and that on reliability and safety margins. A distinct improvement on accuracy in nuclear core design has been accomplished by the development of adjusted nuclear library using the cross-section adjustment method, in which the results of criticality experiments of JUPITER and so on are reflected. In the design of large LMFBR cores, however, it is important to accurately estimate not only neutronic characteristics, for example, reaction rate distribution and control rod worth but also burnup characteristics, for example, burnup reactivity loss, breeding ratio and so on. For this purpose, it is desired to improve prediction accuracy of burnup characteristics using the data widely obtained in actual core such as the experimental fast reactor 'JOYO'. The analysis of burnup characteristics is needed to effectively use burnup characteristics data in the actual cores based on the cross-section adjustment method. So far, a burnup sensitivity analysis code, SAGEP-BURN, has been developed and confirmed its effectiveness. However, there is a problem that analysis sequence become inefficient because of a big burden to users due to complexity of the theory of burnup sensitivity and limitation of the system. It is also desired to rearrange the system for future revision since it is becoming difficult to implement new functions in the existing large system. It is not sufficient to unify each computational component for the following reasons; the computational sequence may be changed for each item being analyzed or for purpose such as interpretation of physical meaning. Therefore, it is needed to systemize the current code for burnup sensitivity analysis with component blocks of functionality that can be divided or constructed on occasion. For

  19. Acute subjective response to alcohol as a function of reward and punishment sensitivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, David H; Treloar, Hayley; Tsai, Chia-Lin; McCarty, Kayleigh N; McCarthy, Denis M

    2016-09-01

    Individual differences in subjective response to alcohol play a crucial role in the development of heavy drinking and related problems. In light of this, a growing focus of research has been identifying factors that contribute to differences in response. The aim of the present study was to determine whether individual differences in the subjective experience of rewarding and aversive effects of alcohol are a specific manifestation of general differences in reward and punishment sensitivity. Eighty-nine participants (M age=22.4, SD=1.9; 47.2% women) consumed a moderate dose of alcohol, i.e., peak breath alcohol concentration (BrAC)≈0.080g%, and rated their level of stimulation and sedation at seven timepoints over the BrAC curve. Sensitivity to reward and punishment were assessed by a self-report questionnaire prior to consumption. Multilevel growth models showed that post-consumption changes in stimulation ratings varied as a function of participants' level of reward and punishment sensitivity. Drinkers more sensitive to reward reported feeling more stimulated shortly after drinking and exhibited an attenuated rate of decline in stimulation over the blood alcohol curve, relative to drinkers with less strong reward sensitivity. Reward sensitivity was not related to subjective ratings of sedation, and punishment sensitivity was not related to either stimulation or sedation ratings. Findings suggest that reward sensitivity may increase risk for alcohol misuse among young adult social drinkers by increasing their subjective feelings of stimulation while drinking. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  20. Placental restriction of fetal growth reduces cutaneous responses to antigen after sensitization in sheep.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wooldridge, Amy L; Bischof, Robert J; Meeusen, Els N; Liu, Hong; Heinemann, Gary K; Hunter, Damien S; Giles, Lynne C; Kind, Karen L; Owens, Julie A; Clifton, Vicki L; Gatford, Kathryn L

    2014-04-01

    Prenatal and early childhood exposures are implicated as causes of allergy, but the effects of intrauterine growth restriction on immune function and allergy are poorly defined. We therefore evaluated effects of experimental restriction of fetal growth on immune function and allergic sensitization in adolescent sheep. Immune function (circulating total red and white blood cells, neutrophils, lymphocytes, monocytes, eosinophils, and basophils, and the antibody response to Clostridial vaccination) and responses to house dust mite (HDM) allergen and ovalbumin (OVA) antigen sensitization (specific total Ig, IgG1, and IgE antibodies, and cutaneous hypersensitivity) were investigated in adolescent sheep from placentally restricted (PR, n = 23) and control (n = 40) pregnancies. Increases in circulating HDM-specific IgE (P = 0.007) and OVA-specific IgE (P = 0.038) were greater in PR than control progeny. PR did not alter total Ig, IgG1, or IgM responses to either antigen. PR increased OVA-specific but not HDM-specific IgA responses in females only (P = 0.023). Multiple birth increased Ig responses to OVA in a sex-specific manner. PR decreased the proportion of positive cutaneous hypersensitivity responders to OVA at 24 h (P = 0.030) but had no effect on cutaneous responses to HDM. Acute wheal responses to intradermal histamine correlated positively with birth weight in singletons (P = 0.023). Intrauterine growth restriction may suppress inflammatory responses in skin downstream of IgE induction, without impairment in antibody responses to a nonpolysaccharide vaccine. Discord between cutaneous and IgE responses following sensitization suggests new mechanisms for prenatal allergy programming.

  1. Sensitivity analysis for heat diffusion in a fin on a nuclear fuel element

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tito, Max Werner de Carvalho

    2001-11-01

    The modern thermal systems generally present a growing complexity, as is in the case of nuclear power plants. It seems that is necessary the use of complex computation and mathematical tools in order to increase the efficiency of the operations, reduce costs and maximize profits while maintaining the integrity of its components. The use of sensitivity calculations plays an important role in this process providing relevant information regarding the resultant influence of variation or perturbation of its parameters as the system works. This technique is better known as sensitivity analysis and through its use makes possible the understanding of the effects of the parameters, which are fundamental for the project preparation, and for the development of preventive and corrective handling measurements of many pieces of equipment of modern engineering. The sensitivity calculation methodology is based generally on the response surface technique (graphic description of the functions of interest based in the results obtained from the system parameter variation). This method presents a lot of disadvantages and sometimes is even impracticable since many parameters can cause alterations or perturbations to the system and the model to analyse it can be very complex as well. The utilization of perturbative methods result appropriate as a practical solution to this problem especially in the presence of complex equations. Also it reduces the resultant computational calculus time considerably. The use of these methods becomes an essential tool to simplify the sensitivity analysis. In this dissertation, the differential perturbative method is applied in a heat conduction problem within a thermal system, made up of a one-dimensional circumferential fin on a nuclear fuel element. The fins are used to extend the thermal surfaces where convection occurs; thus increasing the heat transfer to many thermal pieces of equipment in order to obtain better results. The finned claddings are

  2. Dynamic Resonance Sensitivity Analysis in Wind Farms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ebrahimzadeh, Esmaeil; Blaabjerg, Frede; Wang, Xiongfei

    2017-01-01

    (PFs) are calculated by critical eigenvalue sensitivity analysis versus the entries of the MIMO matrix. The PF analysis locates the most exciting bus of the resonances, where can be the best location to install the passive or active filters to reduce the harmonic resonance problems. Time...

  3. Early growth response-1 negative feedback regulates skeletal muscle postprandial insulin sensitivity via activating Ptp1b transcription.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Jing; Tao, Wei-Wei; Chong, Dan-Yang; Lai, Shan-Shan; Wang, Chuang; Liu, Qi; Zhang, Tong-Yu; Xue, Bin; Li, Chao-Jun

    2018-03-15

    Postprandial insulin desensitization plays a critical role in maintaining whole-body glucose homeostasis by avoiding the excessive absorption of blood glucose; however, the detailed mechanisms that underlie how the major player, skeletal muscle, desensitizes insulin action remain to be elucidated. Herein, we report that early growth response gene-1 ( Egr-1) is activated by insulin in skeletal muscle and provides feedback inhibition that regulates insulin sensitivity after a meal. The inhibition of the transcriptional activity of Egr-1 enhanced the phosphorylation of the insulin receptor (InsR) and Akt, thus increasing glucose uptake in L6 myotubes after insulin stimulation, whereas overexpression of Egr-1 decreased insulin sensitivity. Furthermore, deletion of Egr-1 in the skeletal muscle improved systemic insulin sensitivity and glucose tolerance, which resulted in lower blood glucose levels after refeeding. Mechanistic analysis demonstrated that EGR-1 inhibited InsR phosphorylation and glucose uptake in skeletal muscle by binding to the proximal promoter region of protein tyrosine phosphatase-1B (PTP1B) and directly activating transcription. PTP1B knockdown largely restored insulin sensitivity and enhanced glucose uptake, even under conditions of EGR-1 overexpression. Our results indicate that EGR-1/PTP1B signaling negatively regulates postprandial insulin sensitivity and suggest a potential therapeutic target for the prevention and treatment of excessive glucose absorption.-Wu, J., Tao, W.-W., Chong, D.-Y., Lai, S.-S., Wang, C., Liu, Q., Zhang, T.-Y., Xue, B., Li, C.-J. Early growth response-1 negative feedback regulates skeletal muscle postprandial insulin sensitivity via activating Ptp1b transcription.

  4. The EVEREST project: sensitivity analysis of geological disposal systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marivoet, Jan; Wemaere, Isabelle; Escalier des Orres, Pierre; Baudoin, Patrick; Certes, Catherine; Levassor, Andre; Prij, Jan; Martens, Karl-Heinz; Roehlig, Klaus

    1997-01-01

    The main objective of the EVEREST project is the evaluation of the sensitivity of the radiological consequences associated with the geological disposal of radioactive waste to the different elements in the performance assessment. Three types of geological host formations are considered: clay, granite and salt. The sensitivity studies that have been carried out can be partitioned into three categories according to the type of uncertainty taken into account: uncertainty in the model parameters, uncertainty in the conceptual models and uncertainty in the considered scenarios. Deterministic as well as stochastic calculational approaches have been applied for the sensitivity analyses. For the analysis of the sensitivity to parameter values, the reference technique, which has been applied in many evaluations, is stochastic and consists of a Monte Carlo simulation followed by a linear regression. For the analysis of conceptual model uncertainty, deterministic and stochastic approaches have been used. For the analysis of uncertainty in the considered scenarios, mainly deterministic approaches have been applied

  5. Multiple predictor smoothing methods for sensitivity analysis: Example results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Storlie, Curtis B.; Helton, Jon C.

    2008-01-01

    The use of multiple predictor smoothing methods in sampling-based sensitivity analyses of complex models is investigated. Specifically, sensitivity analysis procedures based on smoothing methods employing the stepwise application of the following nonparametric regression techniques are described in the first part of this presentation: (i) locally weighted regression (LOESS), (ii) additive models, (iii) projection pursuit regression, and (iv) recursive partitioning regression. In this, the second and concluding part of the presentation, the indicated procedures are illustrated with both simple test problems and results from a performance assessment for a radioactive waste disposal facility (i.e., the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant). As shown by the example illustrations, the use of smoothing procedures based on nonparametric regression techniques can yield more informative sensitivity analysis results than can be obtained with more traditional sensitivity analysis procedures based on linear regression, rank regression or quadratic regression when nonlinear relationships between model inputs and model predictions are present

  6. Multi-Response Parameter Interval Sensitivity and Optimization for the Composite Tape Winding Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Tao; Kang, Chao; Zhao, Pan

    2018-01-01

    The composite tape winding process, which utilizes a tape winding machine and prepreg tapes, provides a promising way to improve the quality of composite products. Nevertheless, the process parameters of composite tape winding have crucial effects on the tensile strength and void content, which are closely related to the performances of the winding products. In this article, two different object values of winding products, including mechanical performance (tensile strength) and a physical property (void content), were respectively calculated. Thereafter, the paper presents an integrated methodology by combining multi-parameter relative sensitivity analysis and single-parameter sensitivity analysis to obtain the optimal intervals of the composite tape winding process. First, the global multi-parameter sensitivity analysis method was applied to investigate the sensitivity of each parameter in the tape winding processing. Then, the local single-parameter sensitivity analysis method was employed to calculate the sensitivity of a single parameter within the corresponding range. Finally, the stability and instability ranges of each parameter were distinguished. Meanwhile, the authors optimized the process parameter ranges and provided comprehensive optimized intervals of the winding parameters. The verification test validated that the optimized intervals of the process parameters were reliable and stable for winding products manufacturing. PMID:29385048

  7. LHS (latin hypercubes) sampling of the material properties of steels for the analysis of the global sensitivity in welding numerical simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petelet, Matthieu; Asserin, Olivier; Iooss, Bertrand; Petelet, Matthieu; Loredo, Alexandre

    2006-01-01

    In this work, the method of sensitivity analysis allowing to identify the inlet data the most influential on the variability of the responses (residual stresses and distortions). Classically, the sensitivity analysis is carried out locally what limits its validity domain to a given material. A global sensitivity analysis method is proposed; it allows to cover a material domain as wide as those of the steels series. A probabilistic modeling giving the variability of the material parameters in the steels series is proposed. The original aspect of this work consists in the use of the sampling method by latin hypercubes (LHS) of the material parameters which forms the inlet data (dependent of temperature) of the numerical simulations. Thus, a statistical approach has been applied to the welding numerical simulation: LHS sampling of the material properties, global sensitivity analysis what has allowed the reduction of the material parameterization. (O.M.)

  8. Probability density adjoint for sensitivity analysis of the Mean of Chaos

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blonigan, Patrick J., E-mail: blonigan@mit.edu; Wang, Qiqi, E-mail: qiqi@mit.edu

    2014-08-01

    Sensitivity analysis, especially adjoint based sensitivity analysis, is a powerful tool for engineering design which allows for the efficient computation of sensitivities with respect to many parameters. However, these methods break down when used to compute sensitivities of long-time averaged quantities in chaotic dynamical systems. This paper presents a new method for sensitivity analysis of ergodic chaotic dynamical systems, the density adjoint method. The method involves solving the governing equations for the system's invariant measure and its adjoint on the system's attractor manifold rather than in phase-space. This new approach is derived for and demonstrated on one-dimensional chaotic maps and the three-dimensional Lorenz system. It is found that the density adjoint computes very finely detailed adjoint distributions and accurate sensitivities, but suffers from large computational costs.

  9. Implementation of a methodology to perform the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the control rod drop in a BWR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reyes F, M. del C.

    2015-07-01

    A methodology to perform uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for the cross sections used in a Trace/PARCS coupled model for a control rod drop transient of a BWR-5 reactor was implemented with the neutronics code PARCS. A model of the nuclear reactor detailing all assemblies located in the core was developed. However, the thermohydraulic model designed in Trace was a simple model, where one channel representing all the types of assemblies located in the core, it was located inside a simple vessel model and boundary conditions were established. The thermohydraulic model was coupled with the neutronics model, first for the steady state and then a Control Rod Drop (CRD) transient was performed, in order to carry out the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. To perform the analysis of the cross sections used in the Trace/PARCS coupled model during the transient, Probability Density Functions (PDFs) were generated for the 22 parameters cross sections selected from the neutronics parameters that PARCS requires, thus obtaining 100 different cases for the Trace/PARCS coupled model, each with a database of different cross sections. All these cases were executed with the coupled model, therefore obtaining 100 different outputs for the CRD transient with special emphasis on 4 responses per output: 1) The reactivity, 2) the percentage of rated power, 3) the average fuel temperature and 4) the average coolant density. For each response during the transient an uncertainty analysis was performed in which the corresponding uncertainty bands were generated. With this analysis it is possible to observe the results ranges of the responses chose by varying the uncertainty parameters selected. This is very useful and important for maintaining the safety in the nuclear power plants, also to verify if the uncertainty band is within of safety margins. The sensitivity analysis complements the uncertainty analysis identifying the parameter or parameters with the most influence on the

  10. Implementation of a methodology to perform the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the control rod drop in a BWR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reyes F, M. del C.

    2015-01-01

    A methodology to perform uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for the cross sections used in a Trace/PARCS coupled model for a control rod drop transient of a BWR-5 reactor was implemented with the neutronics code PARCS. A model of the nuclear reactor detailing all assemblies located in the core was developed. However, the thermohydraulic model designed in Trace was a simple model, where one channel representing all the types of assemblies located in the core, it was located inside a simple vessel model and boundary conditions were established. The thermohydraulic model was coupled with the neutronics model, first for the steady state and then a Control Rod Drop (CRD) transient was performed, in order to carry out the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. To perform the analysis of the cross sections used in the Trace/PARCS coupled model during the transient, Probability Density Functions (PDFs) were generated for the 22 parameters cross sections selected from the neutronics parameters that PARCS requires, thus obtaining 100 different cases for the Trace/PARCS coupled model, each with a database of different cross sections. All these cases were executed with the coupled model, therefore obtaining 100 different outputs for the CRD transient with special emphasis on 4 responses per output: 1) The reactivity, 2) the percentage of rated power, 3) the average fuel temperature and 4) the average coolant density. For each response during the transient an uncertainty analysis was performed in which the corresponding uncertainty bands were generated. With this analysis it is possible to observe the results ranges of the responses chose by varying the uncertainty parameters selected. This is very useful and important for maintaining the safety in the nuclear power plants, also to verify if the uncertainty band is within of safety margins. The sensitivity analysis complements the uncertainty analysis identifying the parameter or parameters with the most influence on the

  11. Can feedback analysis be used to uncover the physical origin of climate sensitivity and efficacy differences?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rieger, Vanessa S.; Dietmüller, Simone; Ponater, Michael

    2017-10-01

    Different strengths and types of radiative forcings cause variations in the climate sensitivities and efficacies. To relate these changes to their physical origin, this study tests whether a feedback analysis is a suitable approach. For this end, we apply the partial radiative perturbation method. Combining the forward and backward calculation turns out to be indispensable to ensure the additivity of feedbacks and to yield a closed forcing-feedback-balance at top of the atmosphere. For a set of CO2-forced simulations, the climate sensitivity changes with increasing forcing. The albedo, cloud and combined water vapour and lapse rate feedback are found to be responsible for the variations in the climate sensitivity. An O3-forced simulation (induced by enhanced NOx and CO surface emissions) causes a smaller efficacy than a CO2-forced simulation with a similar magnitude of forcing. We find that the Planck, albedo and most likely the cloud feedback are responsible for this effect. Reducing the radiative forcing impedes the statistical separability of feedbacks. We additionally discuss formal inconsistencies between the common ways of comparing climate sensitivities and feedbacks. Moreover, methodical recommendations for future work are given.

  12. Third-generation Ah receptor-responsive luciferase reporter plasmids: amplification of dioxin-responsive elements dramatically increases CALUX bioassay sensitivity and responsiveness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Guochun; Tsutsumi, Tomoaki; Zhao, Bin; Baston, David S; Zhao, Jing; Heath-Pagliuso, Sharon; Denison, Michael S

    2011-10-01

    2,3,7,8-Tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD, dioxin) and related dioxin-like chemicals are widespread and persistent environmental contaminants that produce diverse toxic and biological effects through their ability to bind to and activate the Ah receptor (AhR) and AhR-dependent gene expression. The chemically activated luciferase expression (CALUX) system is an AhR-responsive recombinant luciferase reporter gene-based cell bioassay that has been used in combination with chemical extraction and cleanup methods for the relatively rapid and inexpensive detection and relative quantitation of dioxin and dioxin-like chemicals in a wide variety of sample matrices. Although the CALUX bioassay has been validated and used extensively for screening purposes, it has some limitations when screening samples with very low levels of dioxin-like chemicals or when there is only a small amount of sample matrix for analysis. Here, we describe the development of third-generation (G3) CALUX plasmids with increased numbers of dioxin-responsive elements, and stable transfection of these new plasmids into mouse hepatoma (Hepa1c1c7) cells has produced novel amplified G3 CALUX cell bioassays that respond to TCDD with a dramatically increased magnitude of luciferase induction and significantly lower minimal detection limit than existing CALUX-type cell lines. The new G3 CALUX cell lines provide a highly responsive and sensitive bioassay system for the detection and relative quantitation of very low levels of dioxin-like chemicals in sample extracts.

  13. Third-Generation Ah Receptor–Responsive Luciferase Reporter Plasmids: Amplification of Dioxin-Responsive Elements Dramatically Increases CALUX Bioassay Sensitivity and Responsiveness

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Guochun; Tsutsumi, Tomoaki; Zhao, Bin; Baston, David S.; Zhao, Jing; Heath-Pagliuso, Sharon; Denison, Michael S.

    2011-01-01

    2,3,7,8-Tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD, dioxin) and related dioxin-like chemicals are widespread and persistent environmental contaminants that produce diverse toxic and biological effects through their ability to bind to and activate the Ah receptor (AhR) and AhR-dependent gene expression. The chemically activated luciferase expression (CALUX) system is an AhR-responsive recombinant luciferase reporter gene–based cell bioassay that has been used in combination with chemical extraction and cleanup methods for the relatively rapid and inexpensive detection and relative quantitation of dioxin and dioxin-like chemicals in a wide variety of sample matrices. Although the CALUX bioassay has been validated and used extensively for screening purposes, it has some limitations when screening samples with very low levels of dioxin-like chemicals or when there is only a small amount of sample matrix for analysis. Here, we describe the development of third-generation (G3) CALUX plasmids with increased numbers of dioxin-responsive elements, and stable transfection of these new plasmids into mouse hepatoma (Hepa1c1c7) cells has produced novel amplified G3 CALUX cell bioassays that respond to TCDD with a dramatically increased magnitude of luciferase induction and significantly lower minimal detection limit than existing CALUX-type cell lines. The new G3 CALUX cell lines provide a highly responsive and sensitive bioassay system for the detection and relative quantitation of very low levels of dioxin-like chemicals in sample extracts. PMID:21775728

  14. SBML-SAT: a systems biology markup language (SBML) based sensitivity analysis tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zi, Zhike; Zheng, Yanan; Rundell, Ann E; Klipp, Edda

    2008-08-15

    It has long been recognized that sensitivity analysis plays a key role in modeling and analyzing cellular and biochemical processes. Systems biology markup language (SBML) has become a well-known platform for coding and sharing mathematical models of such processes. However, current SBML compatible software tools are limited in their ability to perform global sensitivity analyses of these models. This work introduces a freely downloadable, software package, SBML-SAT, which implements algorithms for simulation, steady state analysis, robustness analysis and local and global sensitivity analysis for SBML models. This software tool extends current capabilities through its execution of global sensitivity analyses using multi-parametric sensitivity analysis, partial rank correlation coefficient, SOBOL's method, and weighted average of local sensitivity analyses in addition to its ability to handle systems with discontinuous events and intuitive graphical user interface. SBML-SAT provides the community of systems biologists a new tool for the analysis of their SBML models of biochemical and cellular processes.

  15. Sensitivity analysis and power for instrumental variable studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xuran; Jiang, Yang; Zhang, Nancy R; Small, Dylan S

    2018-03-31

    In observational studies to estimate treatment effects, unmeasured confounding is often a concern. The instrumental variable (IV) method can control for unmeasured confounding when there is a valid IV. To be a valid IV, a variable needs to be independent of unmeasured confounders and only affect the outcome through affecting the treatment. When applying the IV method, there is often concern that a putative IV is invalid to some degree. We present an approach to sensitivity analysis for the IV method which examines the sensitivity of inferences to violations of IV validity. Specifically, we consider sensitivity when the magnitude of association between the putative IV and the unmeasured confounders and the direct effect of the IV on the outcome are limited in magnitude by a sensitivity parameter. Our approach is based on extending the Anderson-Rubin test and is valid regardless of the strength of the instrument. A power formula for this sensitivity analysis is presented. We illustrate its usage via examples about Mendelian randomization studies and its implications via a comparison of using rare versus common genetic variants as instruments. © 2018, The International Biometric Society.

  16. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for the simulation of a station blackout scenario in the Jules Horowitz Reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghione, Alberto; Noel, Brigitte; Vinai, Paolo; Demazière, Christophe

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • A station blackout scenario in the Jules Horowitz Reactor is analyzed using CATHARE. • Input and model uncertainties relevant to the transient, are considered. • A statistical methodology for the propagation of the uncertainties is applied. • No safety criteria are exceeded and sufficiently large safety margins are estimated. • The most influential uncertainties are determined with a sensitivity analysis. - Abstract: An uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for the simulation of a station blackout scenario in the Jules Horowitz Reactor (JHR) is presented. The JHR is a new material testing reactor under construction at CEA on the Cadarache site, France. The thermal-hydraulic system code CATHARE is applied to investigate the response of the reactor system to the scenario. The uncertainty and sensitivity study was based on a statistical methodology for code uncertainty propagation, and the ‘Uncertainty and Sensitivity’ platform URANIE was used. Accordingly, the input uncertainties relevant to the transient, were identified, quantified, and propagated to the code output. The results show that the safety criteria are not exceeded and sufficiently large safety margins exist. In addition, the most influential input uncertainties on the safety parameters were found by making use of a sensitivity analysis.

  17. Parameter sensitivity analysis of nonlinear piezoelectric probe in tapping mode atomic force microscopy for measurement improvement

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McCarty, Rachael; Nima Mahmoodi, S., E-mail: nmahmoodi@eng.ua.edu [Department of Mechanical Engineering, The University of Alabama, Box 870276, Tuscaloosa, Alabama 35487 (United States)

    2014-02-21

    The equations of motion for a piezoelectric microcantilever are derived for a nonlinear contact force. The analytical expressions for natural frequencies and mode shapes are obtained. Then, the method of multiple scales is used to analyze the analytical frequency response of the piezoelectric probe. The effects of nonlinear excitation force on the microcantilever beam's frequency and amplitude are analytically studied. The results show a frequency shift in the response resulting from the force nonlinearities. This frequency shift during contact mode is an important consideration in the modeling of AFM mechanics for generation of more accurate imaging. Also, a sensitivity analysis of the system parameters on the nonlinearity effect is performed. The results of a sensitivity analysis show that it is possible to choose parameters such that the frequency shift minimizes. Certain parameters such as tip radius, microcantilever beam dimensions, and modulus of elasticity have more influence on the nonlinearity of the system than other parameters. By changing only three parameters—tip radius, thickness, and modulus of elasticity of the microbeam—a more than 70% reduction in nonlinearity effect was achieved.

  18. Sensitivity Analysis in Sequential Decision Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Qiushi; Ayer, Turgay; Chhatwal, Jagpreet

    2017-02-01

    Sequential decision problems are frequently encountered in medical decision making, which are commonly solved using Markov decision processes (MDPs). Modeling guidelines recommend conducting sensitivity analyses in decision-analytic models to assess the robustness of the model results against the uncertainty in model parameters. However, standard methods of conducting sensitivity analyses cannot be directly applied to sequential decision problems because this would require evaluating all possible decision sequences, typically in the order of trillions, which is not practically feasible. As a result, most MDP-based modeling studies do not examine confidence in their recommended policies. In this study, we provide an approach to estimate uncertainty and confidence in the results of sequential decision models. First, we provide a probabilistic univariate method to identify the most sensitive parameters in MDPs. Second, we present a probabilistic multivariate approach to estimate the overall confidence in the recommended optimal policy considering joint uncertainty in the model parameters. We provide a graphical representation, which we call a policy acceptability curve, to summarize the confidence in the optimal policy by incorporating stakeholders' willingness to accept the base case policy. For a cost-effectiveness analysis, we provide an approach to construct a cost-effectiveness acceptability frontier, which shows the most cost-effective policy as well as the confidence in that for a given willingness to pay threshold. We demonstrate our approach using a simple MDP case study. We developed a method to conduct sensitivity analysis in sequential decision models, which could increase the credibility of these models among stakeholders.

  19. Sensitivity analysis of the reactor safety study. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parkinson, W.J.; Rasmussen, N.C.; Hinkle, W.D.

    1979-01-01

    The Reactor Safety Study (RSS) or Wash 1400 developed a methodology estimating the public risk from light water nuclear reactors. In order to give further insights into this study, a sensitivity analysis has been performed to determine the significant contributors to risk for both the PWR and BWR. The sensitivity to variation of the point values of the failure probabilities reported in the RSS was determined for the safety systems identified therein, as well as for many of the generic classes from which individual failures contributed to system failures. Increasing as well as decreasing point values were considered. An analysis of the sensitivity to increasing uncertainty in system failure probabilities was also performed. The sensitivity parameters chosen were release category probabilities, core melt probability, and the risk parameters of early fatalities, latent cancers and total property damage. The latter three are adequate for describing all public risks identified in the RSS. The results indicate reductions of public risk by less than a factor of two for factor reductions in system or generic failure probabilities as high as one hundred. There also appears to be more benefit in monitoring the most sensitive systems to verify adherence to RSS failure rates than to backfitting present reactors. The sensitivity analysis results do indicate, however, possible benefits in reducing human error rates

  20. Perceptual Sensitivity and Response to Strong Stimuli Are Related

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna C. Bolders

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available To shed new light on the long-standing debate about the (independence of sensitivity to weak stimuli and overreactivity to strong stimuli, we examined the relation between these tendencies within the neurobehavioral framework of the Predictive and Reactive Control Systems (PARCS theory (Tops et al., 2010, 2014. Whereas previous studies only considered overreactivity in terms of the individual tendency to experience unpleasant affect (punishment reactivity resulting from strong sensory stimulation, we also took the individual tendency to experience pleasant affect (reward reactivity resulting from strong sensory stimulation into account. According to PARCS theory, these temperamental tendencies overlap in terms of high reactivity toward stimulation, but oppose each other in terms of the response orientation (approach or avoid. PARCS theory predicts that both types of reactivity to strong stimuli relate to sensitivity to weak stimuli, but that these relationships are suppressed due to the opposing relationship between reward and punishment reactivity. We measured punishment and reward reactivity to strong stimuli and sensitivity to weak stimuli using scales from the Adult Temperament Questionnaire (Evans and Rothbart, 2007. Sensitivity was also measured more objectively using the masked auditory threshold. We found that sensitivity to weak stimuli (both self-reported and objectively assessed was positively associated with self-reported punishment and reward reactivity to strong stimuli, but only when these reactivity measures were controlled for each other, implicating a mutual suppression effect. These results are in line with PARCS theory and suggest that sensitivity to weak stimuli and overreactivity are dependent, but this dependency is likely to be obscured if punishment and reward reactivity are not both taken into account.

  1. Sensitivity analysis for contagion effects in social networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    VanderWeele, Tyler J.

    2014-01-01

    Analyses of social network data have suggested that obesity, smoking, happiness and loneliness all travel through social networks. Individuals exert “contagion effects” on one another through social ties and association. These analyses have come under critique because of the possibility that homophily from unmeasured factors may explain these statistical associations and because similar findings can be obtained when the same methodology is applied to height, acne and head-aches, for which the conclusion of contagion effects seems somewhat less plausible. We use sensitivity analysis techniques to assess the extent to which supposed contagion effects for obesity, smoking, happiness and loneliness might be explained away by homophily or confounding and the extent to which the critique using analysis of data on height, acne and head-aches is relevant. Sensitivity analyses suggest that contagion effects for obesity and smoking cessation are reasonably robust to possible latent homophily or environmental confounding; those for happiness and loneliness are somewhat less so. Supposed effects for height, acne and head-aches are all easily explained away by latent homophily and confounding. The methodology that has been employed in past studies for contagion effects in social networks, when used in conjunction with sensitivity analysis, may prove useful in establishing social influence for various behaviors and states. The sensitivity analysis approach can be used to address the critique of latent homophily as a possible explanation of associations interpreted as contagion effects. PMID:25580037

  2. Global sensitivity analysis using low-rank tensor approximations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Konakli, Katerina; Sudret, Bruno

    2016-01-01

    In the context of global sensitivity analysis, the Sobol' indices constitute a powerful tool for assessing the relative significance of the uncertain input parameters of a model. We herein introduce a novel approach for evaluating these indices at low computational cost, by post-processing the coefficients of polynomial meta-models belonging to the class of low-rank tensor approximations. Meta-models of this class can be particularly efficient in representing responses of high-dimensional models, because the number of unknowns in their general functional form grows only linearly with the input dimension. The proposed approach is validated in example applications, where the Sobol' indices derived from the meta-model coefficients are compared to reference indices, the latter obtained by exact analytical solutions or Monte-Carlo simulation with extremely large samples. Moreover, low-rank tensor approximations are confronted to the popular polynomial chaos expansion meta-models in case studies that involve analytical rank-one functions and finite-element models pertinent to structural mechanics and heat conduction. In the examined applications, indices based on the novel approach tend to converge faster to the reference solution with increasing size of the experimental design used to build the meta-model. - Highlights: • A new method is proposed for global sensitivity analysis of high-dimensional models. • Low-rank tensor approximations (LRA) are used as a meta-modeling technique. • Analytical formulas for the Sobol' indices in terms of LRA coefficients are derived. • The accuracy and efficiency of the approach is illustrated in application examples. • LRA-based indices are compared to indices based on polynomial chaos expansions.

  3. A practical approach to the sensitivity analysis for kinetic Monte Carlo simulation of heterogeneous catalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffmann, Max J.; Engelmann, Felix; Matera, Sebastian

    2017-01-01

    Lattice kinetic Monte Carlo simulations have become a vital tool for predictive quality atomistic understanding of complex surface chemical reaction kinetics over a wide range of reaction conditions. In order to expand their practical value in terms of giving guidelines for the atomic level design of catalytic systems, it is very desirable to readily evaluate a sensitivity analysis for a given model. The result of such a sensitivity analysis quantitatively expresses the dependency of the turnover frequency, being the main output variable, on the rate constants entering the model. In the past, the application of sensitivity analysis, such as degree of rate control, has been hampered by its exuberant computational effort required to accurately sample numerical derivatives of a property that is obtained from a stochastic simulation method. In this study, we present an efficient and robust three-stage approach that is capable of reliably evaluating the sensitivity measures for stiff microkinetic models as we demonstrate using the CO oxidation on RuO2(110) as a prototypical reaction. In the first step, we utilize the Fisher information matrix for filtering out elementary processes which only yield negligible sensitivity. Then we employ an estimator based on the linear response theory for calculating the sensitivity measure for non-critical conditions which covers the majority of cases. Finally, we adapt a method for sampling coupled finite differences for evaluating the sensitivity measure for lattice based models. This allows for an efficient evaluation even in critical regions near a second order phase transition that are hitherto difficult to control. The combined approach leads to significant computational savings over straightforward numerical derivatives and should aid in accelerating the nano-scale design of heterogeneous catalysts.

  4. A global sensitivity analysis approach for morphogenesis models

    KAUST Repository

    Boas, Sonja E. M.

    2015-11-21

    Background Morphogenesis is a developmental process in which cells organize into shapes and patterns. Complex, non-linear and multi-factorial models with images as output are commonly used to study morphogenesis. It is difficult to understand the relation between the uncertainty in the input and the output of such ‘black-box’ models, giving rise to the need for sensitivity analysis tools. In this paper, we introduce a workflow for a global sensitivity analysis approach to study the impact of single parameters and the interactions between them on the output of morphogenesis models. Results To demonstrate the workflow, we used a published, well-studied model of vascular morphogenesis. The parameters of this cellular Potts model (CPM) represent cell properties and behaviors that drive the mechanisms of angiogenic sprouting. The global sensitivity analysis correctly identified the dominant parameters in the model, consistent with previous studies. Additionally, the analysis provided information on the relative impact of single parameters and of interactions between them. This is very relevant because interactions of parameters impede the experimental verification of the predicted effect of single parameters. The parameter interactions, although of low impact, provided also new insights in the mechanisms of in silico sprouting. Finally, the analysis indicated that the model could be reduced by one parameter. Conclusions We propose global sensitivity analysis as an alternative approach to study the mechanisms of morphogenesis. Comparison of the ranking of the impact of the model parameters to knowledge derived from experimental data and from manipulation experiments can help to falsify models and to find the operand mechanisms in morphogenesis. The workflow is applicable to all ‘black-box’ models, including high-throughput in vitro models in which output measures are affected by a set of experimental perturbations.

  5. A global sensitivity analysis approach for morphogenesis models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boas, Sonja E M; Navarro Jimenez, Maria I; Merks, Roeland M H; Blom, Joke G

    2015-11-21

    Morphogenesis is a developmental process in which cells organize into shapes and patterns. Complex, non-linear and multi-factorial models with images as output are commonly used to study morphogenesis. It is difficult to understand the relation between the uncertainty in the input and the output of such 'black-box' models, giving rise to the need for sensitivity analysis tools. In this paper, we introduce a workflow for a global sensitivity analysis approach to study the impact of single parameters and the interactions between them on the output of morphogenesis models. To demonstrate the workflow, we used a published, well-studied model of vascular morphogenesis. The parameters of this cellular Potts model (CPM) represent cell properties and behaviors that drive the mechanisms of angiogenic sprouting. The global sensitivity analysis correctly identified the dominant parameters in the model, consistent with previous studies. Additionally, the analysis provided information on the relative impact of single parameters and of interactions between them. This is very relevant because interactions of parameters impede the experimental verification of the predicted effect of single parameters. The parameter interactions, although of low impact, provided also new insights in the mechanisms of in silico sprouting. Finally, the analysis indicated that the model could be reduced by one parameter. We propose global sensitivity analysis as an alternative approach to study the mechanisms of morphogenesis. Comparison of the ranking of the impact of the model parameters to knowledge derived from experimental data and from manipulation experiments can help to falsify models and to find the operand mechanisms in morphogenesis. The workflow is applicable to all 'black-box' models, including high-throughput in vitro models in which output measures are affected by a set of experimental perturbations.

  6. Brain activations related to saccadic response conflict are not sensitive to time on task

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ewa eBeldzik

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Establishing a role of the dorsal medial frontal cortex in the performance monitoring and cognitive control has been a challenge to neuroscientists for the past decade. In light of recent findings, the conflict monitoring hypothesis has been elaborated to an action-outcome predictor theory. One of the findings that led to this re-evaluation was the fMRI study in which conflict-related brain activity was investigated in terms of the so-called time on task effect, i.e. a linear increase of the BOLD signal with longer response times. The aim of this study was to investigate brain regions involved in the processing of saccadic response conflict and to account for the time on task effect. A modified spatial cueing task was implemented in the event-related fMRI study with oculomotor responses. The results revealed several brain regions which show higher activity for incongruent trials in comparison to the congruent ones, including pre-supplementary motor area together with the frontal and parietal regions. Further analysis accounting for the effect of response time provided evidence that these brain activations were not sensitive to time on task but reflected purely the congruency effect.

  7. Brain Activations Related to Saccadic Response Conflict are not Sensitive to Time on Task.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beldzik, Ewa; Domagalik, Aleksandra; Oginska, Halszka; Marek, Tadeusz; Fafrowicz, Magdalena

    2015-01-01

    Establishing a role of the dorsal medial frontal cortex in the performance monitoring and cognitive control has been a challenge to neuroscientists for the past decade. In light of recent findings, the conflict monitoring hypothesis has been elaborated to an action-outcome predictor theory. One of the findings that led to this re-evaluation was the fMRI study in which conflict-related brain activity was investigated in terms of the so-called time on task effect, i.e., a linear increase of the BOLD signal with longer response times. The aim of this study was to investigate brain regions involved in the processing of saccadic response conflict and to account for the time on task effect. A modified spatial cueing task was implemented in the event-related fMRI study with oculomotor responses. The results revealed several brain regions which show higher activity for incongruent trials in comparison to the congruent ones, including pre-supplementary motor area together with the frontal and parietal regions. Further analysis accounting for the effect of response time provided evidence that these brain activations were not sensitive to time on task but reflected purely the congruency effect.

  8. Probabilistic and sensitivity analysis of Botlek Bridge structures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Králik Juraj

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with the probabilistic and sensitivity analysis of the largest movable lift bridge of the world. The bridge system consists of six reinforced concrete pylons and two steel decks 4000 tons weight each connected through ropes with counterweights. The paper focuses the probabilistic and sensitivity analysis as the base of dynamic study in design process of the bridge. The results had a high importance for practical application and design of the bridge. The model and resistance uncertainties were taken into account in LHS simulation method.

  9. Sensitivity and response time improvements in millimeter-wave spectrometers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kolbe, W.F.; Leskovar, B.

    1980-09-01

    A new version of a microwave spectrometer for the detection of gaseous pollutants and other atmospheric constituents is described. The spectrometer, which operates in the vicinity of 70 GHz, employs a Fabry-Perot resonator as a sample cell and uses superhetrodyne detection for high sensitivity. The spectrometer has been modified to incorporate a frequency doubler modulated at 30 MHz to permit operation with a single Gunn oscillator source. As a result, faster response time and somewhat greater sensitivity are obtained. The spectrometer is capable of detecting a minimum concentration of 1 ppM of SO 2 diluted in air with a 1 second time constant. For OCS diluted in air, the minimum detectable concentration is 800 ppB and with a 10 second time constant 300 ppB

  10. Parametric sensitivity analysis of an agro-economic model of management of irrigation water

    Science.gov (United States)

    El Ouadi, Ihssan; Ouazar, Driss; El Menyari, Younesse

    2015-04-01

    The current work aims to build an analysis and decision support tool for policy options concerning the optimal allocation of water resources, while allowing a better reflection on the issue of valuation of water by the agricultural sector in particular. Thus, a model disaggregated by farm type was developed for the rural town of Ait Ben Yacoub located in the east Morocco. This model integrates economic, agronomic and hydraulic data and simulates agricultural gross margin across in this area taking into consideration changes in public policy and climatic conditions, taking into account the competition for collective resources. To identify the model input parameters that influence over the results of the model, a parametric sensitivity analysis is performed by the "One-Factor-At-A-Time" approach within the "Screening Designs" method. Preliminary results of this analysis show that among the 10 parameters analyzed, 6 parameters affect significantly the objective function of the model, it is in order of influence: i) Coefficient of crop yield response to water, ii) Average daily gain in weight of livestock, iii) Exchange of livestock reproduction, iv) maximum yield of crops, v) Supply of irrigation water and vi) precipitation. These 6 parameters register sensitivity indexes ranging between 0.22 and 1.28. Those results show high uncertainties on these parameters that can dramatically skew the results of the model or the need to pay particular attention to their estimates. Keywords: water, agriculture, modeling, optimal allocation, parametric sensitivity analysis, Screening Designs, One-Factor-At-A-Time, agricultural policy, climate change.

  11. Monte carlo calculation of energy-dependent response of high-sensitive neutron monitor, HISENS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Imanaka, Tetsuji; Ebisawa, Tohru; Kobayashi, Keiji; Koide, Hiroaki; Seo, Takeshi; Kawano, Shinji

    1988-01-01

    A highly sensitive neutron monitor system, HISENS, has been developed to measure leakage neutrons from nuclear facilities. The counter system of HISENS contains a detector bank which consists of ten cylindrical proportional counters filled with 10 atm 3 He gas and a paraffin moderator mounted in an aluminum case. The size of the detector bank is 56 cm high, 66 cm wide and 10 cm thick. It is revealed by a calibration experiment using an 241 Am-Be neutron source that the sensitivity of HISENS is about 2000 times as large as that of a typical commercial rem-counter. Since HISENS is designed to have a high sensitivity in a wide range of neutron energy, the shape of its energy dependent response curve cannot be matched to that of the dose equivalent conversion factor. To estimate dose equivalent values from neutron counts by HISENS, it is necessary to know the energy and angular characteristics of both HISENS and the neutron field. The area of one side of the detector bank is 3700 cm 2 and the detection efficiency in the constant region of the response curve is about 30 %. Thus, the sensitivity of HISENS for this energy range is 740 cps/(n/cm 2 /sec). This value indicates the extremely high sensitivity of HISENS as compared with exsisting highly sensitive neutron monitors. (Nogami, K.)

  12. Context Sensitive Modeling of Cancer Drug Sensitivity.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bo-Juen Chen

    Full Text Available Recent screening of drug sensitivity in large panels of cancer cell lines provides a valuable resource towards developing algorithms that predict drug response. Since more samples provide increased statistical power, most approaches to prediction of drug sensitivity pool multiple cancer types together without distinction. However, pan-cancer results can be misleading due to the confounding effects of tissues or cancer subtypes. On the other hand, independent analysis for each cancer-type is hampered by small sample size. To balance this trade-off, we present CHER (Contextual Heterogeneity Enabled Regression, an algorithm that builds predictive models for drug sensitivity by selecting predictive genomic features and deciding which ones should-and should not-be shared across different cancers, tissues and drugs. CHER provides significantly more accurate models of drug sensitivity than comparable elastic-net-based models. Moreover, CHER provides better insight into the underlying biological processes by finding a sparse set of shared and type-specific genomic features.

  13. Experimental Design for Sensitivity Analysis of Simulation Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kleijnen, J.P.C.

    2001-01-01

    This introductory tutorial gives a survey on the use of statistical designs for what if-or sensitivity analysis in simulation.This analysis uses regression analysis to approximate the input/output transformation that is implied by the simulation model; the resulting regression model is also known as

  14. Understanding dynamics using sensitivity analysis: caveat and solution

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    Background Parametric sensitivity analysis (PSA) has become one of the most commonly used tools in computational systems biology, in which the sensitivity coefficients are used to study the parametric dependence of biological models. As many of these models describe dynamical behaviour of biological systems, the PSA has subsequently been used to elucidate important cellular processes that regulate this dynamics. However, in this paper, we show that the PSA coefficients are not suitable in inferring the mechanisms by which dynamical behaviour arises and in fact it can even lead to incorrect conclusions. Results A careful interpretation of parametric perturbations used in the PSA is presented here to explain the issue of using this analysis in inferring dynamics. In short, the PSA coefficients quantify the integrated change in the system behaviour due to persistent parametric perturbations, and thus the dynamical information of when a parameter perturbation matters is lost. To get around this issue, we present a new sensitivity analysis based on impulse perturbations on system parameters, which is named impulse parametric sensitivity analysis (iPSA). The inability of PSA and the efficacy of iPSA in revealing mechanistic information of a dynamical system are illustrated using two examples involving switch activation. Conclusions The interpretation of the PSA coefficients of dynamical systems should take into account the persistent nature of parametric perturbations involved in the derivation of this analysis. The application of PSA to identify the controlling mechanism of dynamical behaviour can be misleading. By using impulse perturbations, introduced at different times, the iPSA provides the necessary information to understand how dynamics is achieved, i.e. which parameters are essential and when they become important. PMID:21406095

  15. An adaptive Mantel-Haenszel test for sensitivity analysis in observational studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenbaum, Paul R; Small, Dylan S

    2017-06-01

    In a sensitivity analysis in an observational study with a binary outcome, is it better to use all of the data or to focus on subgroups that are expected to experience the largest treatment effects? The answer depends on features of the data that may be difficult to anticipate, a trade-off between unknown effect-sizes and known sample sizes. We propose a sensitivity analysis for an adaptive test similar to the Mantel-Haenszel test. The adaptive test performs two highly correlated analyses, one focused analysis using a subgroup, one combined analysis using all of the data, correcting for multiple testing using the joint distribution of the two test statistics. Because the two component tests are highly correlated, this correction for multiple testing is small compared with, for instance, the Bonferroni inequality. The test has the maximum design sensitivity of two component tests. A simulation evaluates the power of a sensitivity analysis using the adaptive test. Two examples are presented. An R package, sensitivity2x2xk, implements the procedure. © 2016, The International Biometric Society.

  16. Sensitivity and responsiveness of the health-related quality of life in stroke patients-40 (HRQOLISP-40) scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vincent-Onabajo, Grace O; Owolabi, Mayowa O; Hamzat, Talhatu K

    2014-01-01

    To investigate the sensitivity and responsiveness of the Health-Related Quality of Life in Stroke Patients-40 (HRQOLISP-40) scale in evaluating stroke patients from onset to 12 months. Fifty-five patients with first-incidence stroke were followed-up for 12 months. The HRQOLISP-40 scale was used to assess health-related quality of life (HRQOL) while stroke severity was assessed with the Stroke Levity Scale. Sensitivity to change was assessed by analyzing changes in the HRQOLISP-40 scores between pairs of months with paired samples t-test. Standardized effect size (SES) and standardized response mean (SRM) were used to express responsiveness. Overall HRQOL and domains in the physical sphere of the HRQOLISP-40 were sensitive to change at different time intervals in the first 12 months post-stroke. Marked responsiveness (SES and SRM >0.7) was demonstrated by the overall scale, and the physical, psycho-emotional and cognitive domains at varying time intervals. For instance, SRM was greater than 0.7 between 1 and 6, 3 and 12, 1 and 9, and 1 and 12 months for both the physical and psycho-emotional domains. The HRQOLISP-40 is a sensitive and responsive stroke-specific quality of life measure that can be used to evaluate the outcome of stroke rehabilitation. Enhancing the health-related quality of life (HRQOL) of stroke survivors can be regarded as the ultimate goal of stroke rehabilitation. Sensitive and responsive stroke-specific HRQOL measures are required for use in evaluative studies, and clinical trials and practice. The Health-Related Quality of Life in Stroke Patients-40 (HRQOLISP-40) is a sensitive and responsive stroke-specific scale.

  17. Sensitivity analysis for improving nanomechanical photonic transducers biosensors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fariña, D; Álvarez, M; Márquez, S; Lechuga, L M; Dominguez, C

    2015-01-01

    The achievement of high sensitivity and highly integrated transducers is one of the main challenges in the development of high-throughput biosensors. The aim of this study is to improve the final sensitivity of an opto-mechanical device to be used as a reliable biosensor. We report the analysis of the mechanical and optical properties of optical waveguide microcantilever transducers, and their dependency on device design and dimensions. The selected layout (geometry) based on two butt-coupled misaligned waveguides displays better sensitivities than an aligned one. With this configuration, we find that an optimal microcantilever thickness range between 150 nm and 400 nm would increase both microcantilever bending during the biorecognition process and increase optical sensitivity to 4.8   ×   10 −2  nm −1 , an order of magnitude higher than other similar opto-mechanical devices. Moreover, the analysis shows that a single mode behaviour of the propagating radiation is required to avoid modal interference that could misinterpret the readout signal. (paper)

  18. Sensitivity Analysis of Weather Variables on Offsite Consequence Analysis Tools in South Korea and the United States

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Min-Uk Kim

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available We studied sensitive weather variables for consequence analysis, in the case of chemical leaks on the user side of offsite consequence analysis (OCA tools. We used OCA tools Korea Offsite Risk Assessment (KORA and Areal Location of Hazardous Atmospheres (ALOHA in South Korea and the United States, respectively. The chemicals used for this analysis were 28% ammonia (NH3, 35% hydrogen chloride (HCl, 50% hydrofluoric acid (HF, and 69% nitric acid (HNO3. The accident scenarios were based on leakage accidents in storage tanks. The weather variables were air temperature, wind speed, humidity, and atmospheric stability. Sensitivity analysis was performed using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS program for dummy regression analysis. Sensitivity analysis showed that impact distance was not sensitive to humidity. Impact distance was most sensitive to atmospheric stability, and was also more sensitive to air temperature than wind speed, according to both the KORA and ALOHA tools. Moreover, the weather variables were more sensitive in rural conditions than in urban conditions, with the ALOHA tool being more influenced by weather variables than the KORA tool. Therefore, if using the ALOHA tool instead of the KORA tool in rural conditions, users should be careful not to cause any differences in impact distance due to input errors of weather variables, with the most sensitive one being atmospheric stability.

  19. Sensitivity Analysis of Weather Variables on Offsite Consequence Analysis Tools in South Korea and the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Min-Uk; Moon, Kyong Whan; Sohn, Jong-Ryeul; Byeon, Sang-Hoon

    2018-05-18

    We studied sensitive weather variables for consequence analysis, in the case of chemical leaks on the user side of offsite consequence analysis (OCA) tools. We used OCA tools Korea Offsite Risk Assessment (KORA) and Areal Location of Hazardous Atmospheres (ALOHA) in South Korea and the United States, respectively. The chemicals used for this analysis were 28% ammonia (NH₃), 35% hydrogen chloride (HCl), 50% hydrofluoric acid (HF), and 69% nitric acid (HNO₃). The accident scenarios were based on leakage accidents in storage tanks. The weather variables were air temperature, wind speed, humidity, and atmospheric stability. Sensitivity analysis was performed using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) program for dummy regression analysis. Sensitivity analysis showed that impact distance was not sensitive to humidity. Impact distance was most sensitive to atmospheric stability, and was also more sensitive to air temperature than wind speed, according to both the KORA and ALOHA tools. Moreover, the weather variables were more sensitive in rural conditions than in urban conditions, with the ALOHA tool being more influenced by weather variables than the KORA tool. Therefore, if using the ALOHA tool instead of the KORA tool in rural conditions, users should be careful not to cause any differences in impact distance due to input errors of weather variables, with the most sensitive one being atmospheric stability.

  20. A double-loop adaptive sampling approach for sensitivity-free dynamic reliability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Zequn; Wang, Pingfeng

    2015-01-01

    Dynamic reliability measures reliability of an engineered system considering time-variant operation condition and component deterioration. Due to high computational costs, conducting dynamic reliability analysis at an early system design stage remains challenging. This paper presents a confidence-based meta-modeling approach, referred to as double-loop adaptive sampling (DLAS), for efficient sensitivity-free dynamic reliability analysis. The DLAS builds a Gaussian process (GP) model sequentially to approximate extreme system responses over time, so that Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) can be employed directly to estimate dynamic reliability. A generic confidence measure is developed to evaluate the accuracy of dynamic reliability estimation while using the MCS approach based on developed GP models. A double-loop adaptive sampling scheme is developed to efficiently update the GP model in a sequential manner, by considering system input variables and time concurrently in two sampling loops. The model updating process using the developed sampling scheme can be terminated once the user defined confidence target is satisfied. The developed DLAS approach eliminates computationally expensive sensitivity analysis process, thus substantially improves the efficiency of dynamic reliability analysis. Three case studies are used to demonstrate the efficacy of DLAS for dynamic reliability analysis. - Highlights: • Developed a novel adaptive sampling approach for dynamic reliability analysis. • POD Developed a new metric to quantify the accuracy of dynamic reliability estimation. • Developed a new sequential sampling scheme to efficiently update surrogate models. • Three case studies were used to demonstrate the efficacy of the new approach. • Case study results showed substantially enhanced efficiency with high accuracy

  1. Development of a sensitivity analysis systems in nuclear reactors through generalized perturbation theory at first order in 2 D geometries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garcia, Juan Matias

    2005-01-01

    Perturbation Methods represent a powerful tool to do sensitivity analysis, and they found many aplications in nuclear engineering.As an introduction to this kind of analysis, we develope a program that apply the Generalized Perturbation Theory or GPT Method to bidimensional system of rectangular geometry.We first consider an homogeneous system of non-multiplying material and then an heterogeneous system with region of multiplying material, with the intention of make concret aplications of perturbation method to nuclear engineering problems.The program, that we called Pert, determines neutron fluxes and importance functions applying the Multigroup Diffusion Theory; and also solves the integrals required to calculate sensitivity coefficients.Using this perturbation methods we could verify the low computational cost required to make this kind of analysis and the simplicity of the equations systems involved, allowing us to make elaborates sensitivity analysis for the responses of our interest

  2. Wavenumber-frequency Spectra of Pressure Fluctuations Measured via Fast Response Pressure Sensitive Paint

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panda, J.; Roozeboom, N. H.; Ross, J. C.

    2016-01-01

    The recent advancement in fast-response Pressure-Sensitive Paint (PSP) allows time-resolved measurements of unsteady pressure fluctuations from a dense grid of spatial points on a wind tunnel model. This capability allows for direct calculations of the wavenumber-frequency (k-?) spectrum of pressure fluctuations. Such data, useful for the vibro-acoustics analysis of aerospace vehicles, are difficult to obtain otherwise. For the present work, time histories of pressure fluctuations on a flat plate subjected to vortex shedding from a rectangular bluff-body were measured using PSP. The light intensity levels in the photographic images were then converted to instantaneous pressure histories by applying calibration constants, which were calculated from a few dynamic pressure sensors placed at selective points on the plate. Fourier transform of the time-histories from a large number of spatial points provided k-? spectra for pressure fluctuations. The data provides first glimpse into the possibility of creating detailed forcing functions for vibro-acoustics analysis of aerospace vehicles, albeit for a limited frequency range.

  3. Insulin sensitivity affects corticolimbic brain responses to visual food cues in polycystic ovary syndrome patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alsaadi, Hanin M; Van Vugt, Dean A

    2015-11-01

    This study examined the effect of insulin sensitivity on the responsiveness of appetite regulatory brain regions to visual food cues. Nineteen participants diagnosed with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) were divided into insulin-sensitive (n=8) and insulin-resistant (n=11) groups based on the homeostatic model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA2-IR). Subjects underwent functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) while viewing food pictures following water or dextrose consumption. The corticolimbic blood oxygen level dependent (BOLD) responses to high-calorie (HC) or low-calorie (LC) food pictures were compared within and between groups. BOLD responses to food pictures were reduced during a glucose challenge in numerous corticolimbic brain regions in insulin-sensitive but not insulin-resistant subjects. Furthermore, the degree of insulin resistance positively correlated with the corticolimbic BOLD response in the medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC), orbitofrontal cortex (OFC), anterior cingulate and ventral tegmental area (VTA) in response to HC pictures, and in the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC), mPFC, anterior cingulate, and insula in response to LC pictures following a glucose challenge. BOLD signal in the OFC, midbrain, hippocampus, and amygdala following a glucose challenge correlated with HOMA2-IR in response to HC-LC pictures. We conclude that the normal inhibition of corticolimbic brain responses to food pictures during a glucose challenge is compromised in insulin-resistant subjects. The increase in brain responsiveness to food pictures during postprandial hyperinsulinemia may lead to greater non-homeostatic eating and perpetuate obesity in insulin-resistant subjects.

  4. Comparing sensitivity analysis methods to advance lumped watershed model identification and evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Tang

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available This study seeks to identify sensitivity tools that will advance our understanding of lumped hydrologic models for the purposes of model improvement, calibration efficiency and improved measurement schemes. Four sensitivity analysis methods were tested: (1 local analysis using parameter estimation software (PEST, (2 regional sensitivity analysis (RSA, (3 analysis of variance (ANOVA, and (4 Sobol's method. The methods' relative efficiencies and effectiveness have been analyzed and compared. These four sensitivity methods were applied to the lumped Sacramento soil moisture accounting model (SAC-SMA coupled with SNOW-17. Results from this study characterize model sensitivities for two medium sized watersheds within the Juniata River Basin in Pennsylvania, USA. Comparative results for the 4 sensitivity methods are presented for a 3-year time series with 1 h, 6 h, and 24 h time intervals. The results of this study show that model parameter sensitivities are heavily impacted by the choice of analysis method as well as the model time interval. Differences between the two adjacent watersheds also suggest strong influences of local physical characteristics on the sensitivity methods' results. This study also contributes a comprehensive assessment of the repeatability, robustness, efficiency, and ease-of-implementation of the four sensitivity methods. Overall ANOVA and Sobol's method were shown to be superior to RSA and PEST. Relative to one another, ANOVA has reduced computational requirements and Sobol's method yielded more robust sensitivity rankings.

  5. Footbridge Response Predictions and Their Sensitivity to Stochastic Load Assumptions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Lars; Frier, Christian

    2011-01-01

    Knowledge about footbridges response to actions of walking is important in assessments of vibration serviceability. In a number of design codes for footbridges, the vibration serviceability limit state is assessed using a walking load model in which the walking parameters (step frequency, pedestr......Knowledge about footbridges response to actions of walking is important in assessments of vibration serviceability. In a number of design codes for footbridges, the vibration serviceability limit state is assessed using a walking load model in which the walking parameters (step frequency...... of pedestrians for predicting footbridge response, which is meaningful, and a step forward. Modelling walking parameters stochastically, however, requires decisions to be made in terms of their statistical distribution and the parameters describing the statistical distribution. The paper investigates...... the sensitivity of results of computations of bridge response to some of the decisions to be made in this respect. This is a useful approach placing focus on which decisions (and which information) are important for sound estimation of bridge response. The studies involve estimating footbridge responses using...

  6. Comparison of global sensitivity analysis methods – Application to fuel behavior modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ikonen, Timo, E-mail: timo.ikonen@vtt.fi

    2016-02-15

    Highlights: • Several global sensitivity analysis methods are compared. • The methods’ applicability to nuclear fuel performance simulations is assessed. • The implications of large input uncertainties and complex models are discussed. • Alternative strategies to perform sensitivity analyses are proposed. - Abstract: Fuel performance codes have two characteristics that make their sensitivity analysis challenging: large uncertainties in input parameters and complex, non-linear and non-additive structure of the models. The complex structure of the code leads to interactions between inputs that show as cross terms in the sensitivity analysis. Due to the large uncertainties of the inputs these interactions are significant, sometimes even dominating the sensitivity analysis. For the same reason, standard linearization techniques do not usually perform well in the analysis of fuel performance codes. More sophisticated methods are typically needed in the analysis. To this end, we compare the performance of several sensitivity analysis methods in the analysis of a steady state FRAPCON simulation. The comparison of importance rankings obtained with the various methods shows that even the simplest methods can be sufficient for the analysis of fuel maximum temperature. However, the analysis of the gap conductance requires more powerful methods that take into account the interactions of the inputs. In some cases, moment-independent methods are needed. We also investigate the computational cost of the various methods and present recommendations as to which methods to use in the analysis.

  7. TEMPERA-V2. A computer program for sensitivity analysis in a cooling channel of nuclear reactors-V.1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andrade Lima, F.R. de; Alvim, A.C.M.

    1986-09-01

    The sensitivity of linear responses associated with physical quantities governed by non linear differential systems is studied, using perturbation theory. The equivalence and formal differences of differential and GPT formalisms are shown. Both of them and also the matricial formalism are used for sensitivity calculations of transient problems in a typical PWR coolant channel. The results obtained are encouraging with respect to the potentiality of the method for thermal-hydraulic calculations normally performed for reactor design and safety analysis. (Author) [pt

  8. The sensitivity and dynamic response of field ionization gas sensor based on ZnO nanorods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Min Jiahua; Liang Xiaoyan; Wang Bin; Wang Linjun; Zhao Yue; Shi Weimin; Xia Yiben

    2011-01-01

    Field ionization gas sensors based on ZnO nanorods (50–300 nm in diameter, and 3–8 μm in length) with and without a buffer layer were fabricated, and the influence of the orientation of nano-ZnO on the ionization response of devices was discussed, including the sensitivity and dynamic response of the ZnO nanorods with preferential orientation. The results indicated that ZnO nanorods as sensor anode could dramatically decrease the breakdown voltage. The XRD and SEM images illustrated that nano-ZnO with a ZnO buffer layer displayed high c-axis orientation, which helps to significantly reduce the breakdown voltage. Device A based on ZnO nanorods with a ZnO buffer layer could distinguish toluene and acetone. The dynamic responses of device A to the NO x compounds presented the sensitivity of 0.045 ± 0.007 ppm/pA and the response speed within 17–40 s, and indicated a linear relationship between NO x concentration and current response at low NO x concentrations. In addition, the dynamic responses to benzene, isopropyl alcohol, ethanol, and methanol reveals that the device has higher sensitivity to gas with larger static polarizability and lower ionization energy.

  9. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis of system availability using Gaussian processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Daneshkhah, Alireza; Bedford, Tim

    2013-01-01

    The availability of a system under a given failure/repair process is a function of time which can be determined through a set of integral equations and usually calculated numerically. We focus here on the issue of carrying out sensitivity analysis of availability to determine the influence of the input parameters. The main purpose is to study the sensitivity of the system availability with respect to the changes in the main parameters. In the simplest case that the failure repair process is (continuous time/discrete state) Markovian, explicit formulae are well known. Unfortunately, in more general cases availability is often a complicated function of the parameters without closed form solution. Thus, the computation of sensitivity measures would be time-consuming or even infeasible. In this paper, we show how Sobol and other related sensitivity measures can be cheaply computed to measure how changes in the model inputs (failure/repair times) influence the outputs (availability measure). We use a Bayesian framework, called the Bayesian analysis of computer code output (BACCO) which is based on using the Gaussian process as an emulator (i.e., an approximation) of complex models/functions. This approach allows effective sensitivity analysis to be achieved by using far smaller numbers of model runs than other methods. The emulator-based sensitivity measure is used to examine the influence of the failure and repair densities' parameters on the system availability. We discuss how to apply the methods practically in the reliability context, considering in particular the selection of parameters and prior distributions and how we can ensure these may be considered independent—one of the key assumptions of the Sobol approach. The method is illustrated on several examples, and we discuss the further implications of the technique for reliability and maintenance analysis

  10. Differential gene expression responses distinguish contact and respiratory sensitizers and nonsensitizing irritants in the local lymph node assay.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adenuga, David; Woolhiser, Michael R; Gollapudi, B Bhaskar; Boverhof, Darrell R

    2012-04-01

    Genomic approaches have the potential to enhance the specificity and predictive accuracy of existing toxicology endpoints, including those for chemical sensitization. The present study was conducted to determine whether gene expression responses can distinguish contact sensitizers (1-chloro-2,4-dinitrobenzene [DNCB] and hexyl cinnamic aldehyde [HCA]), respiratory sensitizers (ortho-phthalaldehyde and trimellitic anhydride [TMA]), and nonsensitizing irritants (methyl salicylate [MS] and nonanoic acid [NA]) in the local lymph node assay (LLNA). Female Balb/c mice received doses of each chemical as per the standard LLNA dosing regimen on days 1, 2, and 3. Auricular lymph nodes were analyzed for tritiated thymidine ((3)HTdR) incorporation on day 6 and for gene expression responses on days 6 and 10. All chemicals induced dose-dependent increases in stimulation index, which correlated strongly with the number of differentially expressed genes. A majority of genes modulated by the irritants were similarly altered by the sensitizers, consistent with the irritating effects of the sensitizers. However, a select number of responses involved with immune-specific functions, such as dendritic cell activation, were unique to the sensitizers and may offer the ability to distinguish sensitizers from irritants. Genes for the mast cell proteases 1 and 8, Lgals7, Tim2, Aicda, Il4, and Akr1c18 were more strongly regulated by respiratory sensitizers compared with contact sensitizers and may represent potential biomarkers for discriminating between contact and respiratory sensitizers. Collectively, these data suggest that gene expression responses may serve as useful biomarkers to distinguish between respiratory and contact sensitizers and nonsensitizing irritants in the LLNA.

  11. Structure and sensitivity analysis of individual-based predator–prey models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Imron, Muhammad Ali; Gergs, Andre; Berger, Uta

    2012-01-01

    The expensive computational cost of sensitivity analyses has hampered the use of these techniques for analysing individual-based models in ecology. A relatively cheap computational cost, referred to as the Morris method, was chosen to assess the relative effects of all parameters on the model’s outputs and to gain insights into predator–prey systems. Structure and results of the sensitivity analysis of the Sumatran tiger model – the Panthera Population Persistence (PPP) and the Notonecta foraging model (NFM) – were compared. Both models are based on a general predation cycle and designed to understand the mechanisms behind the predator–prey interaction being considered. However, the models differ significantly in their complexity and the details of the processes involved. In the sensitivity analysis, parameters that directly contribute to the number of prey items killed were found to be most influential. These were the growth rate of prey and the hunting radius of tigers in the PPP model as well as attack rate parameters and encounter distance of backswimmers in the NFM model. Analysis of distances in both of the models revealed further similarities in the sensitivity of the two individual-based models. The findings highlight the applicability and importance of sensitivity analyses in general, and screening design methods in particular, during early development of ecological individual-based models. Comparison of model structures and sensitivity analyses provides a first step for the derivation of general rules in the design of predator–prey models for both practical conservation and conceptual understanding. - Highlights: ► Structure of predation processes is similar in tiger and backswimmer model. ► The two individual-based models (IBM) differ in space formulations. ► In both models foraging distance is among the sensitive parameters. ► Morris method is applicable for the sensitivity analysis even of complex IBMs.

  12. Multiple predictor smoothing methods for sensitivity analysis: Description of techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Storlie, Curtis B.; Helton, Jon C.

    2008-01-01

    The use of multiple predictor smoothing methods in sampling-based sensitivity analyses of complex models is investigated. Specifically, sensitivity analysis procedures based on smoothing methods employing the stepwise application of the following nonparametric regression techniques are described: (i) locally weighted regression (LOESS), (ii) additive models, (iii) projection pursuit regression, and (iv) recursive partitioning regression. Then, in the second and concluding part of this presentation, the indicated procedures are illustrated with both simple test problems and results from a performance assessment for a radioactive waste disposal facility (i.e., the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant). As shown by the example illustrations, the use of smoothing procedures based on nonparametric regression techniques can yield more informative sensitivity analysis results than can be obtained with more traditional sensitivity analysis procedures based on linear regression, rank regression or quadratic regression when nonlinear relationships between model inputs and model predictions are present

  13. The Volatility of Data Space: Topology Oriented Sensitivity Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, Jing; Ligmann-Zielinska, Arika

    2015-01-01

    Despite the difference among specific methods, existing Sensitivity Analysis (SA) technologies are all value-based, that is, the uncertainties in the model input and output are quantified as changes of values. This paradigm provides only limited insight into the nature of models and the modeled systems. In addition to the value of data, a potentially richer information about the model lies in the topological difference between pre-model data space and post-model data space. This paper introduces an innovative SA method called Topology Oriented Sensitivity Analysis, which defines sensitivity as the volatility of data space. It extends SA into a deeper level that lies in the topology of data. PMID:26368929

  14. Probabilistic Sensitivities for Fatigue Analysis of Turbine Engine Disks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Harry R. Millwater

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available A methodology is developed and applied that determines the sensitivities of the probability-of-fracture of a gas turbine disk fatigue analysis with respect to the parameters of the probability distributions describing the random variables. The disk material is subject to initial anomalies, in either low- or high-frequency quantities, such that commonly used materials (titanium, nickel, powder nickel and common damage mechanisms (inherent defects or surface damage can be considered. The derivation is developed for Monte Carlo sampling such that the existing failure samples are used and the sensitivities are obtained with minimal additional computational time. Variance estimates and confidence bounds of the sensitivity estimates are developed. The methodology is demonstrated and verified using a multizone probabilistic fatigue analysis of a gas turbine compressor disk analysis considering stress scatter, crack growth propagation scatter, and initial crack size as random variables.

  15. Least squares shadowing sensitivity analysis of a modified Kuramoto–Sivashinsky equation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blonigan, Patrick J.; Wang, Qiqi

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: •Modifying the Kuramoto–Sivashinsky equation and changing its boundary conditions make it an ergodic dynamical system. •The modified Kuramoto–Sivashinsky equation exhibits distinct dynamics for three different ranges of system parameters. •Least squares shadowing sensitivity analysis computes accurate gradients for a wide range of system parameters. - Abstract: Computational methods for sensitivity analysis are invaluable tools for scientists and engineers investigating a wide range of physical phenomena. However, many of these methods fail when applied to chaotic systems, such as the Kuramoto–Sivashinsky (K–S) equation, which models a number of different chaotic systems found in nature. The following paper discusses the application of a new sensitivity analysis method developed by the authors to a modified K–S equation. We find that least squares shadowing sensitivity analysis computes accurate gradients for solutions corresponding to a wide range of system parameters

  16. Sensitivity analysis for CORSOR models simulating fission product release in LOFT-LP-FP-2 severe accident experiment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoseyni, Seyed Mohsen [Islamic Azad Univ., Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of). Dept. of Basic Sciences; Islamic Azad Univ., Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of). Young Researchers and Elite Club; Pourgol-Mohammad, Mohammad [Sahand Univ. of Technology, Tabriz (Iran, Islamic Republic of). Dept. of Mechanical Engineering; Yousefpour, Faramarz [Nuclear Science and Technology Research Institute, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2017-03-15

    This paper deals with simulation, sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of LP-FP-2 experiment of LOFT test facility. The test facility simulates the major components and system response of a pressurized water reactor during a LOCA. MELCOR code is used for predicting the fission product release from the core fuel elements in LOFT LP-FP-2 experiment. Moreover, sensitivity and uncertainty analysis is performed for different CORSOR models simulating release of fission products in severe accident calculations for nuclear power plants. The calculated values for the fission product release are compared under different modeling options to the experimental data available from the experiment. In conclusion, the performance of 8 CORSOR modeling options is assessed for available modeling alternatives in the code structure.

  17. Murine immune responses to oral BCG immunization in the presence or absence of prior BCG sensitization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cross, Martin L; Lambeth, Matthew R; Aldwell, Frank E

    2010-02-01

    Oral delivery of live Mycobacterium bovis BCG in a lipid matrix invokes cell-mediated immune (CMI) responses in mice and consequent protection against pulmonary challenge with virulent mycobacteria. To investigate the influence of prior BCG sensitization on oral vaccine efficacy, we assessed CMI responses and BCG colonization of the alimentary tract lymphatics 5 months after oral vaccination, in both previously naive mice and in mice that had been sensitized to BCG by injection 6 months previously. CMI responses did not differ significantly between mice that received subcutaneous BCG followed by oral BCG and those that received either injected or oral BCG alone. In vivo BCG colonization was predominant in the mesenteric lymph nodes after oral vaccination; this colonizing ability was not influenced by prior BCG sensitization. From this murine model study, we conclude that although prior parenteral-route BCG sensitization does not detrimentally affect BCG colonization after oral vaccination, there is no significant immune-boosting effect of the oral vaccine either.

  18. Proteomic identification of early salicylate- and flg22-responsive redox-sensitive proteins in Arabidopsis

    KAUST Repository

    Liu, Peng; Zhang, Huoming; Yu, Boying; Xiong, Liming; Xia, Yiji

    2015-01-01

    in Arabidopsis cells during the early response to salicylate or flg22, two defense pathway elicitors that are known to disturb cellular redox homeostasis. Among the salicylate- and/or flg22-responsive redox-sensitive proteins are those involved in transcriptional

  19. Parameter sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for a storm surge and wave model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. A. Bastidas

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Development and simulation of synthetic hurricane tracks is a common methodology used to estimate hurricane hazards in the absence of empirical coastal surge and wave observations. Such methods typically rely on numerical models to translate stochastically generated hurricane wind and pressure forcing into coastal surge and wave estimates. The model output uncertainty associated with selection of appropriate model parameters must therefore be addressed. The computational overburden of probabilistic surge hazard estimates is exacerbated by the high dimensionality of numerical surge and wave models. We present a model parameter sensitivity analysis of the Delft3D model for the simulation of hazards posed by Hurricane Bob (1991 utilizing three theoretical wind distributions (NWS23, modified Rankine, and Holland. The sensitive model parameters (of 11 total considered include wind drag, the depth-induced breaking γB, and the bottom roughness. Several parameters show no sensitivity (threshold depth, eddy viscosity, wave triad parameters, and depth-induced breaking αB and can therefore be excluded to reduce the computational overburden of probabilistic surge hazard estimates. The sensitive model parameters also demonstrate a large number of interactions between parameters and a nonlinear model response. While model outputs showed sensitivity to several parameters, the ability of these parameters to act as tuning parameters for calibration is somewhat limited as proper model calibration is strongly reliant on accurate wind and pressure forcing data. A comparison of the model performance with forcings from the different wind models is also presented.

  20. Sensitivity analysis of the nuclear data for MYRRHA reactor modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stankovskiy, Alexey; Van den Eynde, Gert; Cabellos, Oscar; Diez, Carlos J.; Schillebeeckx, Peter; Heyse, Jan

    2014-01-01

    A global sensitivity analysis of effective neutron multiplication factor k eff to the change of nuclear data library revealed that JEFF-3.2T2 neutron-induced evaluated data library produces closer results to ENDF/B-VII.1 than does JEFF-3.1.2. The analysis of contributions of individual evaluations into k eff sensitivity allowed establishing the priority list of nuclides for which uncertainties on nuclear data must be improved. Detailed sensitivity analysis has been performed for two nuclides from this list, 56 Fe and 238 Pu. The analysis was based on a detailed survey of the evaluations and experimental data. To track the origin of the differences in the evaluations and their impact on k eff , the reaction cross-sections and multiplicities in one evaluation have been substituted by the corresponding data from other evaluations. (authors)

  1. An introduction to sensitivity analysis for unobserved confounding in nonexperimental prevention research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Weiwei; Kuramoto, S Janet; Stuart, Elizabeth A

    2013-12-01

    Despite the fact that randomization is the gold standard for estimating causal relationships, many questions in prevention science are often left to be answered through nonexperimental studies because randomization is either infeasible or unethical. While methods such as propensity score matching can adjust for observed confounding, unobserved confounding is the Achilles heel of most nonexperimental studies. This paper describes and illustrates seven sensitivity analysis techniques that assess the sensitivity of study results to an unobserved confounder. These methods were categorized into two groups to reflect differences in their conceptualization of sensitivity analysis, as well as their targets of interest. As a motivating example, we examine the sensitivity of the association between maternal suicide and offspring's risk for suicide attempt hospitalization. While inferences differed slightly depending on the type of sensitivity analysis conducted, overall, the association between maternal suicide and offspring's hospitalization for suicide attempt was found to be relatively robust to an unobserved confounder. The ease of implementation and the insight these analyses provide underscores sensitivity analysis techniques as an important tool for nonexperimental studies. The implementation of sensitivity analysis can help increase confidence in results from nonexperimental studies and better inform prevention researchers and policy makers regarding potential intervention targets.

  2. Sensitivity analysis of numerical solutions for environmental fluid problems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tanaka, Nobuatsu; Motoyama, Yasunori

    2003-01-01

    In this study, we present a new numerical method to quantitatively analyze the error of numerical solutions by using the sensitivity analysis. If a reference case of typical parameters is one calculated with the method, no additional calculation is required to estimate the results of the other numerical parameters such as more detailed solutions. Furthermore, we can estimate the strict solution from the sensitivity analysis results and can quantitatively evaluate the reliability of the numerical solution by calculating the numerical error. (author)

  3. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in nuclear accident consequence assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karlberg, Olof.

    1989-01-01

    This report contains the results of a four year project in research contracts with the Nordic Cooperation in Nuclear Safety and the National Institute for Radiation Protection. An uncertainty/sensitivity analysis methodology consisting of Latin Hypercube sampling and regression analysis was applied to an accident consequence model. A number of input parameters were selected and the uncertainties related to these parameter were estimated within a Nordic group of experts. Individual doses, collective dose, health effects and their related uncertainties were then calculated for three release scenarios and for a representative sample of meteorological situations. From two of the scenarios the acute phase after an accident were simulated and from one the long time consequences. The most significant parameters were identified. The outer limits of the calculated uncertainty distributions are large and will grow to several order of magnitudes for the low probability consequences. The uncertainty in the expectation values are typical a factor 2-5 (1 Sigma). The variation in the model responses due to the variation of the weather parameters is fairly equal to the parameter uncertainty induced variation. The most important parameters showed out to be different for each pathway of exposure, which could be expected. However, the overall most important parameters are the wet deposition coefficient and the shielding factors. A general discussion of the usefulness of uncertainty analysis in consequence analysis is also given. (au)

  4. The application of sensitivity analysis to models of large scale physiological systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonard, J. I.

    1974-01-01

    A survey of the literature of sensitivity analysis as it applies to biological systems is reported as well as a brief development of sensitivity theory. A simple population model and a more complex thermoregulatory model illustrate the investigatory techniques and interpretation of parameter sensitivity analysis. The role of sensitivity analysis in validating and verifying models, and in identifying relative parameter influence in estimating errors in model behavior due to uncertainty in input data is presented. This analysis is valuable to the simulationist and the experimentalist in allocating resources for data collection. A method for reducing highly complex, nonlinear models to simple linear algebraic models that could be useful for making rapid, first order calculations of system behavior is presented.

  5. TEMAC, Top Event Sensitivity Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iman, R.L.; Shortencarier, M.J.

    1988-01-01

    1 - Description of program or function: TEMAC is designed to permit the user to easily estimate risk and to perform sensitivity and uncertainty analyses with a Boolean expression such as produced by the SETS computer program. SETS produces a mathematical representation of a fault tree used to model system unavailability. In the terminology of the TEMAC program, such a mathematical representation is referred to as a top event. The analysis of risk involves the estimation of the magnitude of risk, the sensitivity of risk estimates to base event probabilities and initiating event frequencies, and the quantification of the uncertainty in the risk estimates. 2 - Method of solution: Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses associated with top events involve mathematical operations on the corresponding Boolean expression for the top event, as well as repeated evaluations of the top event in a Monte Carlo fashion. TEMAC employs a general matrix approach which provides a convenient general form for Boolean expressions, is computationally efficient, and allows large problems to be analyzed. 3 - Restrictions on the complexity of the problem - Maxima of: 4000 cut sets, 500 events, 500 values in a Monte Carlo sample, 16 characters in an event name. These restrictions are implemented through the FORTRAN 77 PARAMATER statement

  6. Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis applied to a repository in rock salt

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Polle, A.N.

    1996-12-01

    This document describes the sensitivity and uncertainty analysis with UNCSAM, as applied to a repository in rock salt for the EVEREST project. UNCSAM is a dedicated software package for sensitivity and uncertainty analysis, which was already used within the preceding PROSA project. The use of UNCSAM provides a flexible interface to EMOS ECN by substituting the sampled values in the various input files to be used by EMOS ECN ; the model calculations for this repository were performed with the EMOS ECN code. Preceding the sensitivity and uncertainty analysis, a number of preparations has been carried out to facilitate EMOS ECN with the probabilistic input data. For post-processing the EMOS ECN results, the characteristic output signals were processed. For the sensitivity and uncertainty analysis with UNCSAM the stochastic input, i.e. sampled values, and the output for the various EMOS ECN runs have been analyzed. (orig.)

  7. A framework for 2-stage global sensitivity analysis of GastroPlus™ compartmental models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scherholz, Megerle L; Forder, James; Androulakis, Ioannis P

    2018-04-01

    Parameter sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models are becoming an important consideration for regulatory submissions, requiring further evaluation to establish the need for global sensitivity analysis. To demonstrate the benefits of an extensive analysis, global sensitivity was implemented for the GastroPlus™ model, a well-known commercially available platform, using four example drugs: acetaminophen, risperidone, atenolol, and furosemide. The capabilities of GastroPlus were expanded by developing an integrated framework to automate the GastroPlus graphical user interface with AutoIt and for execution of the sensitivity analysis in MATLAB ® . Global sensitivity analysis was performed in two stages using the Morris method to screen over 50 parameters for significant factors followed by quantitative assessment of variability using Sobol's sensitivity analysis. The 2-staged approach significantly reduced computational cost for the larger model without sacrificing interpretation of model behavior, showing that the sensitivity results were well aligned with the biopharmaceutical classification system. Both methods detected nonlinearities and parameter interactions that would have otherwise been missed by local approaches. Future work includes further exploration of how the input domain influences the calculated global sensitivity measures as well as extending the framework to consider a whole-body PBPK model.

  8. Improving the Design of Capacitive Micromachined Ultrasonic Transducers Aided with Sensitivity Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A Martowicz

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents the results of analysis performed to search for feasible design improvements for capacitive micromachined ultrasonic transducer. Carried out search has been aided with the sensitivity analysis and the application of Response Surface Method. The multiphysics approach has been taken into account in elaborated finite element model of one cell of described transducer in order to include significant physical phenomena present in modelled microdevice. The set of twelve input uncertain and design parameters consists of geometric, material and control properties. The amplitude of dynamic membrane deformation of the transducer has been chosen as studied parameter. The objective of performed study has been defined as the task of finding robust design configurations of the transducer, i.e. characterizing maximal value of deformation amplitude with its minimal variation.

  9. Sensitivity analysis of dynamic characteristic of the fixture based on design variables

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Dongsheng; Nong Shaoning; Zhang Sijian; Ren Wanfa

    2002-01-01

    The research on the sensitivity analysis is dealt with of structural natural frequencies to structural design parameters. A typical fixture for vibration test is designed. Using I-DEAS Finite Element programs, the sensitivity of its natural frequency to design parameters is analyzed by Matrix Perturbation Method. The research result shows that the sensitivity analysis is a fast and effective dynamic re-analysis method to dynamic design and parameters modification of complex structures such as fixtures

  10. Justification of investment projects of biogas systems by the sensitivity analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Perebijnos Vasilij Ivanovich

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Methodical features of sensitivity analysis application for evaluation of biogas plants investment projects are shown in the article. Risk factors of the indicated investment projects have been studied. Methodical basis for the use of sensitivity analysis and calculation of elasticity coefficient has been worked out. Calculation of sensitivity analysis and elasticity coefficient of three biogas plants projects, which differ in direction of biogas transformation: use in co-generation plant, application of biomethane as motor fuel and resulting carbon dioxide as marketable product, has been made. Factors strongly affecting projects efficiency have been revealed.

  11. *Corresponding Author Sensitivity Analysis of a Physiochemical ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Michael Horsfall

    The numerical method of sensitivity or the principle of parsimony ... analysis is a widely applied numerical method often being used in the .... Chemical Engineering Journal 128(2-3), 85-93. Amod S ... coupled 3-PG and soil organic matter.

  12. Development of quantitative methods for spill response planning: a trajectory analysis planner

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Galt, J.A.; Payton, D.L.

    1999-01-01

    In planning for response to oil spills, a great deal of information must be assimilated. Typically, geophysical flow patterns, ocean turbulence, complex chemical processes, ecological setting, fisheries activities, economics of land use, and engineering constraints on response equipment all need to be considered. This presents a formidable analysis problem. It can be shown, however, that if an appropriate set of evaluation data is available, an objective function and appropriate constraints can be formulated. From these equations, the response problem can be cast in terms of game theory of decision analysis and an optimal solution can be obtained using common scarce-resource allocation methods. The optimal solution obtained by this procedure maximises the expected return over all possible implementations of a given set of response options. While considering the development of an optimal spill response, it is useful to consider whether (in the absence of complete data) implementing some subset of these methods is possible to provide relevant and useful information for the spill planning process, even though it may fall short of a statistically optimal solution. In this work we introduce a trajectory analysis planning (TAP) methodology that can provide a cohesive framework for integrating physical transport processes, environmental sensitivity of regional sites, and potential response options. This trajectory analysis planning methodology can be shown to implement a significant part of the game theory analysis and provide 'minimum regret' strategy advice, without actually carrying out the optimisation procedures. (Author)

  13. Sensitivity analysis of time-dependent laminar flows

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hristova, H.; Etienne, S.; Pelletier, D.; Borggaard, J.

    2004-01-01

    This paper presents a general sensitivity equation method (SEM) for time dependent incompressible laminar flows. The SEM accounts for complex parameter dependence and is suitable for a wide range of problems. The formulation is verified on a problem with a closed form solution obtained by the method of manufactured solution. Systematic grid convergence studies confirm the theoretical rates of convergence in both space and time. The methodology is then applied to pulsatile flow around a square cylinder. Computations show that the flow starts with symmetrical vortex shedding followed by a transition to the traditional Von Karman street (alternate vortex shedding). Simulations show that the transition phase manifests itself earlier in the sensitivity fields than in the flow field itself. Sensitivities are then demonstrated for fast evaluation of nearby flows and uncertainty analysis. (author)

  14. Sensitivity analysis of LOFT L2-5 test calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prosek, Andrej

    2014-01-01

    The uncertainty quantification of best-estimate code predictions is typically accompanied by a sensitivity analysis, in which the influence of the individual contributors to uncertainty is determined. The objective of this study is to demonstrate the improved fast Fourier transform based method by signal mirroring (FFTBM-SM) for the sensitivity analysis. The sensitivity study was performed for the LOFT L2-5 test, which simulates the large break loss of coolant accident. There were 14 participants in the BEMUSE (Best Estimate Methods-Uncertainty and Sensitivity Evaluation) programme, each performing a reference calculation and 15 sensitivity runs of the LOFT L2-5 test. The important input parameters varied were break area, gap conductivity, fuel conductivity, decay power etc. For the influence of input parameters on the calculated results the FFTBM-SM was used. The only difference between FFTBM-SM and original FFTBM is that in the FFTBM-SM the signals are symmetrized to eliminate the edge effect (the so called edge is the difference between the first and last data point of one period of the signal) in calculating average amplitude. It is very important to eliminate unphysical contribution to the average amplitude, which is used as a figure of merit for input parameter influence on output parameters. The idea is to use reference calculation as 'experimental signal', 'sensitivity run' as 'calculated signal', and average amplitude as figure of merit for sensitivity instead for code accuracy. The larger is the average amplitude the larger is the influence of varied input parameter. The results show that with FFTBM-SM the analyst can get good picture of the contribution of the parameter variation to the results. They show when the input parameters are influential and how big is this influence. FFTBM-SM could be also used to quantify the influence of several parameter variations on the results. However, the influential parameters could not be

  15. Importance measures in global sensitivity analysis of nonlinear models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Homma, Toshimitsu; Saltelli, Andrea

    1996-01-01

    The present paper deals with a new method of global sensitivity analysis of nonlinear models. This is based on a measure of importance to calculate the fractional contribution of the input parameters to the variance of the model prediction. Measures of importance in sensitivity analysis have been suggested by several authors, whose work is reviewed in this article. More emphasis is given to the developments of sensitivity indices by the Russian mathematician I.M. Sobol'. Given that Sobol' treatment of the measure of importance is the most general, his formalism is employed throughout this paper where conceptual and computational improvements of the method are presented. The computational novelty of this study is the introduction of the 'total effect' parameter index. This index provides a measure of the total effect of a given parameter, including all the possible synergetic terms between that parameter and all the others. Rank transformation of the data is also introduced in order to increase the reproducibility of the method. These methods are tested on a few analytical and computer models. The main conclusion of this work is the identification of a sensitivity analysis methodology which is both flexible, accurate and informative, and which can be achieved at reasonable computational cost

  16. Patch test dose-response study: polysensitized individuals do not express lower elicitation thresholds than single/double-sensitized individuals

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Carlsen, B C; Fischer, Louise Arup; Sosted, H

    2009-01-01

    with nickel sulphate, methyldibromo glutaronitrile (MDBGN) and p-phenylenediamine (PPD) in dilution series. The ratio between the doses eliciting a response in 50% of patients in the two groups was used as the measure for relative sensitivity. RESULTS: The dose-response curves of the polysensitized group...... for MDBGN and PPD were shifted to the right, and for nickel sulphate shifted to the left, compared with the single/double-sensitized group. The relative sensitivity for each of the three allergens and a combined relative sensitivity for all three allergens were not significantly different when comparing...

  17. Sensitivity Analysis of the Integrated Medical Model for ISS Programs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodenow, D. A.; Myers, J. G.; Arellano, J.; Boley, L.; Garcia, Y.; Saile, L.; Walton, M.; Kerstman, E.; Reyes, D.; Young, M.

    2016-01-01

    Sensitivity analysis estimates the relative contribution of the uncertainty in input values to the uncertainty of model outputs. Partial Rank Correlation Coefficient (PRCC) and Standardized Rank Regression Coefficient (SRRC) are methods of conducting sensitivity analysis on nonlinear simulation models like the Integrated Medical Model (IMM). The PRCC method estimates the sensitivity using partial correlation of the ranks of the generated input values to each generated output value. The partial part is so named because adjustments are made for the linear effects of all the other input values in the calculation of correlation between a particular input and each output. In SRRC, standardized regression-based coefficients measure the sensitivity of each input, adjusted for all the other inputs, on each output. Because the relative ranking of each of the inputs and outputs is used, as opposed to the values themselves, both methods accommodate the nonlinear relationship of the underlying model. As part of the IMM v4.0 validation study, simulations are available that predict 33 person-missions on ISS and 111 person-missions on STS. These simulated data predictions feed the sensitivity analysis procedures. The inputs to the sensitivity procedures include the number occurrences of each of the one hundred IMM medical conditions generated over the simulations and the associated IMM outputs: total quality time lost (QTL), number of evacuations (EVAC), and number of loss of crew lives (LOCL). The IMM team will report the results of using PRCC and SRRC on IMM v4.0 predictions of the ISS and STS missions created as part of the external validation study. Tornado plots will assist in the visualization of the condition-related input sensitivities to each of the main outcomes. The outcomes of this sensitivity analysis will drive review focus by identifying conditions where changes in uncertainty could drive changes in overall model output uncertainty. These efforts are an integral

  18. Adjoint sensitivity analysis of high frequency structures with Matlab

    CERN Document Server

    Bakr, Mohamed; Demir, Veysel

    2017-01-01

    This book covers the theory of adjoint sensitivity analysis and uses the popular FDTD (finite-difference time-domain) method to show how wideband sensitivities can be efficiently estimated for different types of materials and structures. It includes a variety of MATLAB® examples to help readers absorb the content more easily.

  19. System reliability assessment via sensitivity analysis in the Markov chain scheme

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gandini, A.

    1988-01-01

    Methods for reliability sensitivity analysis in the Markov chain scheme are presented, together with a new formulation which makes use of Generalized Perturbation Theory (GPT) methods. As well known, sensitivity methods are fundamental in system risk analysis, since they allow to identify important components, so to assist the analyst in finding weaknesses in design and operation and in suggesting optimal modifications for system upgrade. The relationship between the GPT sensitivity expression and the Birnbaum importance is also given [fr

  20. Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of the PATHWAY radionuclide transport model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Otis, M.D.

    1983-01-01

    Procedures were developed for the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of a dynamic model of radionuclide transport through human food chains. Uncertainty in model predictions was estimated by propagation of parameter uncertainties using a Monte Carlo simulation technique. Sensitivity of model predictions to individual parameters was investigated using the partial correlation coefficient of each parameter with model output. Random values produced for the uncertainty analysis were used in the correlation analysis for sensitivity. These procedures were applied to the PATHWAY model which predicts concentrations of radionuclides in foods grown in Nevada and Utah and exposed to fallout during the period of atmospheric nuclear weapons testing in Nevada. Concentrations and time-integrated concentrations of iodine-131, cesium-136, and cesium-137 in milk and other foods were investigated. 9 figs., 13 tabs

  1. Sensitivity analysis of a radionuclide transfer model describing contaminated vegetation in Fukushima prefecture, using Morris and Sobol' - Application of sensitivity analysis on a radionuclides transfer model in the environment describing weeds contamination in Fukushima Prefecture, using Morris method and Sobol' indices indices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nicoulaud-Gouin, V.; Metivier, J.M.; Gonze, M.A. [Institut de Radioprotection et de Surete Nucleaire-PRP-ENV/SERIS/LM2E (France); Garcia-Sanchez, L. [Institut de Radioprotection et de Surete Nucleaire-PRPENV/SERIS/L2BT (France)

    2014-07-01

    The increasing spatial and temporal complexity of models demands methods capable of ranking the influence of their large numbers of parameters. This question specifically arises in assessment studies on the consequences of the Fukushima accident. Sensitivity analysis aims at measuring the influence of input variability on the output response. Generally, two main approaches are distinguished (Saltelli, 2001, Iooss, 2011): - Screening approach, less expensive in computation time and allowing to identify non influential parameters; - Measures of importance, introducing finer quantitative indices. In this category, there are regression-based methods, assuming a linear or monotonic response (Pearson coefficient, Spearman coefficient), and variance-based methods, without assumptions on the model but requiring an increasingly prohibitive number of evaluations when the number of parameters increases. These approaches are available in various statistical programs (notably R) but are still poorly integrated in modelling platforms of radioecological risk assessment. This work aimed at illustrating the benefits of sensitivity analysis in the course of radioecological risk assessments This study used two complementary state-of-art global sensitivity analysis methods: - The screening method of Morris (Morris, 1991; Campolongo et al., 2007) based on limited model evaluations with a one-at-a-time (OAT) design; - The variance-based Sobol' sensitivity analysis (Saltelli, 2002) based a large number of model evaluations in the parameter space with a quasi-random sampling (Owen, 2003). Sensitivity analyses were applied on a dynamic Soil-Plant Deposition Model (Gonze et al., submitted to this conference) predicting foliar concentration in weeds after atmospheric radionuclide fallout. The Soil-Plant Deposition Model considers two foliage pools and a root pool, and describes foliar biomass growth with a Verhulst model. The developed semi-analytic formulation of foliar concentration

  2. Interactive Building Design Space Exploration Using Regionalized Sensitivity Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Østergård, Torben; Jensen, Rasmus Lund; Maagaard, Steffen

    2017-01-01

    simulation inputs are most important and which have negligible influence on the model output. Popular sensitivity methods include the Morris method, variance-based methods (e.g. Sobol’s), and regression methods (e.g. SRC). However, all these methods only address one output at a time, which makes it difficult...... in combination with the interactive parallel coordinate plot (PCP). The latter is an effective tool to explore stochastic simulations and to find high-performing building designs. The proposed methods help decision makers to focus their attention to the most important design parameters when exploring......Monte Carlo simulations combined with regionalized sensitivity analysis provide the means to explore a vast, multivariate design space in building design. Typically, sensitivity analysis shows how the variability of model output relates to the uncertainties in models inputs. This reveals which...

  3. Green thermoelectrics: Observation and analysis of plant thermoelectric response

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Goupil Christophe

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Plants are sensitive to thermal and electrical effects; yet the coupling of both, known as thermoelectricity, and its quantitative measurement in vegetal systems never were reported. We recorded the thermoelectric response of bean sprouts under various thermal conditions and stress. The obtained experimental data unambiguously demonstrate that a temperature difference between the roots and the leaves of a bean sprout induces a thermoelectric voltage between these two points. Basing our analysis of the data on the force-flux formalism of linear response theory, we found that the strength of the vegetal equivalent to the thermoelectric coupling is one order of magnitude larger than that in the best thermoelectric materials. Experimental data also show the importance of the thermal stress variation rate in the plant’s electrophysiological response. therefore, thermoelectric effects are sufficiently important to partake in the complex and intertwined processes of energy and matter transport within plants.

  4. Mesocosm Community Response Sensitivities to Specific Conductivity Comprised of Different Major Ions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Traditional toxicity test assays have been used to evaluate the relative sensitivity to different major ion mixtures as a proxy for understanding what the response of aquatic species growing in their natural environment would be during exposure to specific conductivity stress ema...

  5. RhoA Activation Sensitizes Cells to Proteotoxic Stimuli by Abrogating the HSF1-Dependent Heat Shock Response.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roelien A M Meijering

    Full Text Available The heat shock response (HSR is an ancient and highly conserved program of stress-induced gene expression, aimed at reestablishing protein homeostasis to preserve cellular fitness. Cells that fail to activate or maintain this protective response are hypersensitive to proteotoxic stress. The HSR is mediated by the heat shock transcription factor 1 (HSF1, which binds to conserved heat shock elements (HSE in the promoter region of heat shock genes, resulting in the expression of heat shock proteins (HSP. Recently, we observed that hyperactivation of RhoA conditions cardiomyocytes for the cardiac arrhythmia atrial fibrillation. Also, the HSR is annihilated in atrial fibrillation, and induction of HSR mitigates sensitization of cells to this disease. Therefore, we hypothesized active RhoA to suppress the HSR resulting in sensitization of cells for proteotoxic stimuli.Stimulation of RhoA activity significantly suppressed the proteotoxic stress-induced HSR in HL-1 atrial cardiomyocytes as determined with a luciferase reporter construct driven by the HSF1 regulated human HSP70 (HSPA1A promoter and HSP protein expression by Western Blot analysis. Inversely, RhoA inhibition boosted the proteotoxic stress-induced HSR. While active RhoA did not preclude HSF1 nuclear accumulation, phosphorylation, acetylation, or sumoylation, it did impair binding of HSF1 to the hsp genes promoter element HSE. Impaired binding results in suppression of HSP expression and sensitized cells to proteotoxic stress.These results reveal that active RhoA negatively regulates the HSR via attenuation of the HSF1-HSE binding and thus may play a role in sensitizing cells to proteotoxic stimuli.

  6. Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of reactivities for UO2 and MOX fueled PWR cells

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Foad, Basma [Research Institute of Nuclear Engineering, University of Fukui, Kanawa-cho 1-2-4, Tsuruga-shi, Fukui-ken, 914-0055 (Japan); Egypt Nuclear and Radiological Regulatory Authority, 3 Ahmad El Zomar St., Nasr City, Cairo, 11787 (Egypt); Takeda, Toshikazu [Research Institute of Nuclear Engineering, University of Fukui, Kanawa-cho 1-2-4, Tsuruga-shi, Fukui-ken, 914-0055 (Japan)

    2015-12-31

    The purpose of this paper is to apply our improved method for calculating sensitivities and uncertainties of reactivity responses for UO{sub 2} and MOX fueled pressurized water reactor cells. The improved method has been used to calculate sensitivity coefficients relative to infinite dilution cross-sections, where the self-shielding effect is taken into account. Two types of reactivities are considered: Doppler reactivity and coolant void reactivity, for each type of reactivity, the sensitivities are calculated for small and large perturbations. The results have demonstrated that the reactivity responses have larger relative uncertainty than eigenvalue responses. In addition, the uncertainty of coolant void reactivity is much greater than Doppler reactivity especially for large perturbations. The sensitivity coefficients and uncertainties of both reactivities were verified by comparing with SCALE code results using ENDF/B-VII library and good agreements have been found.

  7. Linear Parametric Sensitivity Analysis of the Constraint Coefficient Matrix in Linear Programs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R.A. Zuidwijk (Rob)

    2005-01-01

    textabstractSensitivity analysis is used to quantify the impact of changes in the initial data of linear programs on the optimal value. In particular, parametric sensitivity analysis involves a perturbation analysis in which the effects of small changes of some or all of the initial data on an

  8. Sensitivity Analysis Based on Markovian Integration by Parts Formula

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yongsheng Hang

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Sensitivity analysis is widely applied in financial risk management and engineering; it describes the variations brought by the changes of parameters. Since the integration by parts technique for Markov chains is well developed in recent years, in this paper we apply it for computation of sensitivity and show the closed-form expressions for two commonly-used time-continuous Markovian models. By comparison, we conclude that our approach outperforms the existing technique of computing sensitivity on Markovian models.

  9. The Coda of the Transient Response in a Sensitive Cochlea: A Computational Modeling Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yizeng Li

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available In a sensitive cochlea, the basilar membrane response to transient excitation of any kind-normal acoustic or artificial intracochlear excitation-consists of not only a primary impulse but also a coda of delayed secondary responses with varying amplitudes but similar spectral content around the characteristic frequency of the measurement location. The coda, sometimes referred to as echoes or ringing, has been described as a form of local, short term memory which may influence the ability of the auditory system to detect gaps in an acoustic stimulus such as speech. Depending on the individual cochlea, the temporal gap between the primary impulse and the following coda ranges from once to thrice the group delay of the primary impulse (the group delay of the primary impulse is on the order of a few hundred microseconds. The coda is physiologically vulnerable, disappearing when the cochlea is compromised even slightly. The multicomponent sensitive response is not yet completely understood. We use a physiologically-based, mathematical model to investigate (i the generation of the primary impulse response and the dependence of the group delay on the various stimulation methods, (ii the effect of spatial perturbations in the properties of mechanically sensitive ion channels on the generation and separation of delayed secondary responses. The model suggests that the presence of the secondary responses depends on the wavenumber content of a perturbation and the activity level of the cochlea. In addition, the model shows that the varying temporal gaps between adjacent coda seen in experiments depend on the individual profiles of perturbations. Implications for non-invasive cochlear diagnosis are also discussed.

  10. Parameter uncertainty effects on variance-based sensitivity analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu, W.; Harris, T.J.

    2009-01-01

    In the past several years there has been considerable commercial and academic interest in methods for variance-based sensitivity analysis. The industrial focus is motivated by the importance of attributing variance contributions to input factors. A more complete understanding of these relationships enables companies to achieve goals related to quality, safety and asset utilization. In a number of applications, it is possible to distinguish between two types of input variables-regressive variables and model parameters. Regressive variables are those that can be influenced by process design or by a control strategy. With model parameters, there are typically no opportunities to directly influence their variability. In this paper, we propose a new method to perform sensitivity analysis through a partitioning of the input variables into these two groupings: regressive variables and model parameters. A sequential analysis is proposed, where first an sensitivity analysis is performed with respect to the regressive variables. In the second step, the uncertainty effects arising from the model parameters are included. This strategy can be quite useful in understanding process variability and in developing strategies to reduce overall variability. When this method is used for nonlinear models which are linear in the parameters, analytical solutions can be utilized. In the more general case of models that are nonlinear in both the regressive variables and the parameters, either first order approximations can be used, or numerically intensive methods must be used

  11. Three-dimensional optimization and sensitivity analysis of dental implant thread parameters using finite element analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geramizadeh, Maryam; Katoozian, Hamidreza; Amid, Reza; Kadkhodazadeh, Mahdi

    2018-04-01

    This study aimed to optimize the thread depth and pitch of a recently designed dental implant to provide uniform stress distribution by means of a response surface optimization method available in finite element (FE) software. The sensitivity of simulation to different mechanical parameters was also evaluated. A three-dimensional model of a tapered dental implant with micro-threads in the upper area and V-shaped threads in the rest of the body was modeled and analyzed using finite element analysis (FEA). An axial load of 100 N was applied to the top of the implants. The model was optimized for thread depth and pitch to determine the optimal stress distribution. In this analysis, micro-threads had 0.25 to 0.3 mm depth and 0.27 to 0.33 mm pitch, and V-shaped threads had 0.405 to 0.495 mm depth and 0.66 to 0.8 mm pitch. The optimized depth and pitch were 0.307 and 0.286 mm for micro-threads and 0.405 and 0.808 mm for V-shaped threads, respectively. In this design, the most effective parameters on stress distribution were the depth and pitch of the micro-threads based on sensitivity analysis results. Based on the results of this study, the optimal implant design has micro-threads with 0.307 and 0.286 mm depth and pitch, respectively, in the upper area and V-shaped threads with 0.405 and 0.808 mm depth and pitch in the rest of the body. These results indicate that micro-thread parameters have a greater effect on stress and strain values.

  12. Sensitivity analysis for decision-making using the MORE method-A Pareto approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ravalico, Jakin K.; Maier, Holger R.; Dandy, Graeme C.

    2009-01-01

    Integrated Assessment Modelling (IAM) incorporates knowledge from different disciplines to provide an overarching assessment of the impact of different management decisions. The complex nature of these models, which often include non-linearities and feedback loops, requires special attention for sensitivity analysis. This is especially true when the models are used to form the basis of management decisions, where it is important to assess how sensitive the decisions being made are to changes in model parameters. This research proposes an extension to the Management Option Rank Equivalence (MORE) method of sensitivity analysis; a new method of sensitivity analysis developed specifically for use in IAM and decision-making. The extension proposes using a multi-objective Pareto optimal search to locate minimum combined parameter changes that result in a change in the preferred management option. It is demonstrated through a case study of the Namoi River, where results show that the extension to MORE is able to provide sensitivity information for individual parameters that takes into account simultaneous variations in all parameters. Furthermore, the increased sensitivities to individual parameters that are discovered when joint parameter variation is taken into account shows the importance of ensuring that any sensitivity analysis accounts for these changes.

  13. Cross-section sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of the FNG copper benchmark experiment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kodeli, I., E-mail: ivan.kodeli@ijs.si [Jožef Stefan Institute, Jamova 39, SI-1000 Ljubljana (Slovenia); Kondo, K. [Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Postfach 3640, D-76021 Karlsruhe (Germany); Japan Atomic Energy Agency, Rokkasho-mura (Japan); Perel, R.L. [Racah Institute of Physics, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, IL-91904 Jerusalem (Israel); Fischer, U. [Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Postfach 3640, D-76021 Karlsruhe (Germany)

    2016-11-01

    A neutronics benchmark experiment on copper assembly was performed end 2014–beginning 2015 at the 14-MeV Frascati neutron generator (FNG) of ENEA Frascati with the objective to provide the experimental database required for the validation of the copper nuclear data relevant for ITER design calculations, including the related uncertainties. The paper presents the pre- and post-analysis of the experiment performed using cross-section sensitivity and uncertainty codes, both deterministic (SUSD3D) and Monte Carlo (MCSEN5). Cumulative reaction rates and neutron flux spectra, their sensitivity to the cross sections, as well as the corresponding uncertainties were estimated for different selected detector positions up to ∼58 cm in the copper assembly. This permitted in the pre-analysis phase to optimize the geometry, the detector positions and the choice of activation reactions, and in the post-analysis phase to interpret the results of the measurements and the calculations, to conclude on the quality of the relevant nuclear cross-section data, and to estimate the uncertainties in the calculated nuclear responses and fluxes. Large uncertainties in the calculated reaction rates and neutron spectra of up to 50%, rarely observed at this level in the benchmark analysis using today's nuclear data, were predicted, particularly high for fast reactions. Observed C/E (dis)agreements with values as low as 0.5 partly confirm these predictions. Benchmark results are therefore expected to contribute to the improvement of both cross section as well as covariance data evaluations.

  14. Methylation-sensitive amplified polymorphism-based genome-wide analysis of cytosine methylation profiles in Nicotiana tabacum cultivars.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiao, J; Wu, J; Lv, Z; Sun, C; Gao, L; Yan, X; Cui, L; Tang, Z; Yan, B; Jia, Y

    2015-11-26

    This study aimed to investigate cytosine methylation profiles in different tobacco (Nicotiana tabacum) cultivars grown in China. Methylation-sensitive amplified polymorphism was used to analyze genome-wide global methylation profiles in four tobacco cultivars (Yunyan 85, NC89, K326, and Yunyan 87). Amplicons with methylated C motifs were cloned by reamplified polymerase chain reaction, sequenced, and analyzed. The results show that geographical location had a greater effect on methylation patterns in the tobacco genome than did sampling time. Analysis of the CG dinucleotide distribution in methylation-sensitive polymorphic restriction fragments suggested that a CpG dinucleotide cluster-enriched area is a possible site of cytosine methylation in the tobacco genome. The sequence alignments of the Nia1 gene (that encodes nitrate reductase) in Yunyan 87 in different regions indicate that a C-T transition might be responsible for the tobacco phenotype. T-C nucleotide replacement might also be responsible for the tobacco phenotype and may be influenced by geographical location.

  15. Response to Marie Paz Morales' ``Influence of culture and language sensitive physics on science attitude achievement''

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cole, Mikel Walker

    2015-12-01

    This response to Marie Paz Morales' "Influence of culture and language sensitive physics on science attitude achievement" explores the ideas of culturally responsive pedagogy and critical literacy to examine some implications for culturally responsive science instruction implicit in the original manuscript.

  16. Arabidopsis ZED1-related kinases mediate the temperature-sensitive intersection of immune response and growth homeostasis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Zhicai; Cui, Dayong; Liu, Jing; Zhao, Jingbo; Liu, Cheng; Xin, Wei; Li, Yuan; Liu, Na; Ren, Dongtao; Tang, Dingzhong; Hu, Yuxin

    2017-07-01

    Activation of the immune response in plants antagonizes growth and development in the absence of pathogens, and such an autoimmune phenotype is often suppressed by the elevation of ambient temperature. However, molecular regulation of the ambient temperature-sensitive intersection of immune response and growth is largely elusive. A genetic screen identified an Arabidopsis mutant, zed1-D, by its high temperature-dependent growth retardation. A combination of molecular, cytological and genetic approaches was used to investigate the molecular basis behind the temperature-sensitive growth and immune response in zed1-D. A dominant mutation in HOPZ-ETI-DEFICIENT 1 (ZED1) is responsible for a high temperature-dependent autoimmunity and growth retardation in zed1-D. The autoimmune phenotype in zed1-D is dependent on the HOPZ-ACTIVATED RESISTANCE 1 (ZAR1). ZED1 and some ZED1-related kinases (ZRKs) are induced by elevated temperature and function cooperatively to suppress the immune response by modulating the transcription of SUPPRESSOR OF NPR1-1 CONSTITUTIVE 1 (SNC1) in the absence of pathogens. Our data reveal a previously unidentified role of ZRKs in the ambient temperature-sensitive immune response in the absence of pathogens, and thus reveals a possible molecular mechanism underlying the temperature-mediated intersection of immune response and growth in plants. © 2017 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2017 New Phytologist Trust.

  17. Global sensitivity analysis of DRAINMOD-FOREST, an integrated forest ecosystem model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shiying Tian; Mohamed A. Youssef; Devendra M. Amatya; Eric D. Vance

    2014-01-01

    Global sensitivity analysis is a useful tool to understand process-based ecosystem models by identifying key parameters and processes controlling model predictions. This study reported a comprehensive global sensitivity analysis for DRAINMOD-FOREST, an integrated model for simulating water, carbon (C), and nitrogen (N) cycles and plant growth in lowland forests. The...

  18. Sensitivity Analysis of Centralized Dynamic Cell Selection

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lopez, Victor Fernandez; Alvarez, Beatriz Soret; Pedersen, Klaus I.

    2016-01-01

    and a suboptimal optimization algorithm that nearly achieves the performance of the optimal Hungarian assignment. Moreover, an exhaustive sensitivity analysis with different network and traffic configurations is carried out in order to understand what conditions are more appropriate for the use of the proposed...

  19. Applications of advances in nonlinear sensitivity analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Werbos, P J

    1982-01-01

    The following paper summarizes the major properties and applications of a collection of algorithms involving differentiation and optimization at minimum cost. The areas of application include the sensitivity analysis of models, new work in statistical or econometric estimation, optimization, artificial intelligence and neuron modelling.

  20. Detecting the sensitivity of magnetic response on different pollution sources--A case study from typical mining cities in northwestern China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Bo; Xia, Dunsheng; Yu, Ye; Jia, Jia; Nie, Yan; Wang, Xin

    2015-12-01

    Rapid monitoring and discriminating different anthropogenic pollution is a key scientific issue. To detect the applicability and sensitivity of magnetic measurements for evaluating different industrial pollution in urban environment, characteristics of topsoil from three typical fast developing industrial cities (Jinchang, Baiyin and Jiayuguan in Gansu province, northwestern China) were studied by magnetic and geochemical analyses. The results showed that magnetic susceptibility was enhanced near industrial areas, and PSD-MD magnetite dominated the magnetic properties. Magnetic concentration parameters (χlf, SIRM, and χARM) showed different correlations with heavy metals and PLI in the three cities, indicating significantly different magnetic response to different pollution sources. Principal component analysis showed that ferrimagnetic minerals coexist with heavy metals of Fe, As, Cu, Pb, and Zn in Baiyin and Fe, V, Cu, Mn, Pb, and Cr in Jiayuguan. Fuzzy cluster analysis and regression analysis further indicated that the sensitivity of magnetic monitoring to fuel dust is higher than that to mineral dust near non-ferrous metal smelters, and fossil fuel consumption is an important factor for increasing magnetite content. In all the three cities, the sensitivity of magnetic monitoring to pollutants from steel plants is much higher than that from non-ferrous metal plants. Therefore, magnetic proxies provide a rapid means for detecting heavy metal contamination caused by multi-anthropogenic pollution sources in a large scale area, however, the sensitivity was controlled by pollution sources. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. A global sensitivity analysis of crop virtual water content

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tamea, S.; Tuninetti, M.; D'Odorico, P.; Laio, F.; Ridolfi, L.

    2015-12-01

    The concepts of virtual water and water footprint are becoming widely used in the scientific literature and they are proving their usefulness in a number of multidisciplinary contexts. With such growing interest a measure of data reliability (and uncertainty) is becoming pressing but, as of today, assessments of data sensitivity to model parameters, performed at the global scale, are not known. This contribution aims at filling this gap. Starting point of this study is the evaluation of the green and blue virtual water content (VWC) of four staple crops (i.e. wheat, rice, maize, and soybean) at a global high resolution scale. In each grid cell, the crop VWC is given by the ratio between the total crop evapotranspiration over the growing season and the crop actual yield, where evapotranspiration is determined with a detailed daily soil water balance and actual yield is estimated using country-based data, adjusted to account for spatial variability. The model provides estimates of the VWC at a 5x5 arc minutes and it improves on previous works by using the newest available data and including multi-cropping practices in the evaluation. The model is then used as the basis for a sensitivity analysis, in order to evaluate the role of model parameters in affecting the VWC and to understand how uncertainties in input data propagate and impact the VWC accounting. In each cell, small changes are exerted to one parameter at a time, and a sensitivity index is determined as the ratio between the relative change of VWC and the relative change of the input parameter with respect to its reference value. At the global scale, VWC is found to be most sensitive to the planting date, with a positive (direct) or negative (inverse) sensitivity index depending on the typical season of crop planting date. VWC is also markedly dependent on the length of the growing period, with an increase in length always producing an increase of VWC, but with higher spatial variability for rice than for

  2. Prior Sensitivity Analysis in Default Bayesian Structural Equation Modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Erp, Sara; Mulder, Joris; Oberski, Daniel L

    2017-11-27

    Bayesian structural equation modeling (BSEM) has recently gained popularity because it enables researchers to fit complex models and solve some of the issues often encountered in classical maximum likelihood estimation, such as nonconvergence and inadmissible solutions. An important component of any Bayesian analysis is the prior distribution of the unknown model parameters. Often, researchers rely on default priors, which are constructed in an automatic fashion without requiring substantive prior information. However, the prior can have a serious influence on the estimation of the model parameters, which affects the mean squared error, bias, coverage rates, and quantiles of the estimates. In this article, we investigate the performance of three different default priors: noninformative improper priors, vague proper priors, and empirical Bayes priors-with the latter being novel in the BSEM literature. Based on a simulation study, we find that these three default BSEM methods may perform very differently, especially with small samples. A careful prior sensitivity analysis is therefore needed when performing a default BSEM analysis. For this purpose, we provide a practical step-by-step guide for practitioners to conducting a prior sensitivity analysis in default BSEM. Our recommendations are illustrated using a well-known case study from the structural equation modeling literature, and all code for conducting the prior sensitivity analysis is available in the online supplemental materials. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  3. An overview of the design and analysis of simulation experiments for sensitivity analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kleijnen, J.P.C.

    2005-01-01

    Sensitivity analysis may serve validation, optimization, and risk analysis of simulation models. This review surveys 'classic' and 'modern' designs for experiments with simulation models. Classic designs were developed for real, non-simulated systems in agriculture, engineering, etc. These designs

  4. Sensitivity analysis of a greedy heuristic for knapsack problems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ghosh, D; Chakravarti, N; Sierksma, G

    2006-01-01

    In this paper, we carry out parametric analysis as well as a tolerance limit based sensitivity analysis of a greedy heuristic for two knapsack problems-the 0-1 knapsack problem and the subset sum problem. We carry out the parametric analysis based on all problem parameters. In the tolerance limit

  5. Uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis with CASL Core Simulator VERA-CS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brown, C.S.; Zhang, Hongbin

    2016-01-01

    VERA-CS (Virtual Environment for Reactor Applications, Core Simulator) is a coupled neutron transport and thermal-hydraulics code under development by the Consortium for Advanced Simulation of Light Water Reactors (CASL). An approach to uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis with VERA-CS was developed and a new toolkit was created to perform uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis. A 2 × 2 fuel assembly model was developed and simulated by VERA-CS, and uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis were performed with fourteen uncertain input parameters. The minimum departure from nucleate boiling ratio (MDNBR), maximum fuel center-line temperature, and maximum outer clad surface temperature were chosen as the selected figures of merit. Pearson, Spearman, and partial correlation coefficients were considered for all of the figures of merit in sensitivity analysis and coolant inlet temperature was consistently the most influential parameter. Parameters used as inputs to the critical heat flux calculation with the W-3 correlation were shown to be the most influential on the MDNBR, maximum fuel center-line temperature, and maximum outer clad surface temperature.

  6. Probabilistic and Nonprobabilistic Sensitivity Analyses of Uncertain Parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sheng-En Fang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Parameter sensitivity analyses have been widely applied to industrial problems for evaluating parameter significance, effects on responses, uncertainty influence, and so forth. In the interest of simple implementation and computational efficiency, this study has developed two sensitivity analysis methods corresponding to the situations with or without sufficient probability information. The probabilistic method is established with the aid of the stochastic response surface and the mathematical derivation proves that the coefficients of first-order items embody the parameter main effects on the response. Simultaneously, a nonprobabilistic interval analysis based method is brought forward for the circumstance when the parameter probability distributions are unknown. The two methods have been verified against a numerical beam example with their accuracy compared to that of a traditional variance-based method. The analysis results have demonstrated the reliability and accuracy of the developed methods. And their suitability for different situations has also been discussed.

  7. Moment-based metrics for global sensitivity analysis of hydrological systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Dell'Oca

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available We propose new metrics to assist global sensitivity analysis, GSA, of hydrological and Earth systems. Our approach allows assessing the impact of uncertain parameters on main features of the probability density function, pdf, of a target model output, y. These include the expected value of y, the spread around the mean and the degree of symmetry and tailedness of the pdf of y. Since reliable assessment of higher-order statistical moments can be computationally demanding, we couple our GSA approach with a surrogate model, approximating the full model response at a reduced computational cost. Here, we consider the generalized polynomial chaos expansion (gPCE, other model reduction techniques being fully compatible with our theoretical framework. We demonstrate our approach through three test cases, including an analytical benchmark, a simplified scenario mimicking pumping in a coastal aquifer and a laboratory-scale conservative transport experiment. Our results allow ascertaining which parameters can impact some moments of the model output pdf while being uninfluential to others. We also investigate the error associated with the evaluation of our sensitivity metrics by replacing the original system model through a gPCE. Our results indicate that the construction of a surrogate model with increasing level of accuracy might be required depending on the statistical moment considered in the GSA. The approach is fully compatible with (and can assist the development of analysis techniques employed in the context of reduction of model complexity, model calibration, design of experiment, uncertainty quantification and risk assessment.

  8. Sensitivity analysis on various parameters for lattice analysis of DUPIC fuel with WIMS-AECL code

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roh, Gyu Hong; Choi, Hang Bok; Park, Jee Won [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)

    1998-12-31

    The code WIMS-AECL has been used for the lattice analysis of DUPIC fuel. The lattice parameters calculated by the code is sensitive to the choice of number of parameters, such as the number of tracking lines, number of condensed groups, mesh spacing in the moderator region, other parameters vital to the calculation of probabilities and burnup analysis. We have studied this sensitivity with respect to these parameters and recommend their proper values which are necessary for carrying out the lattice analysis of DUPIC fuel.

  9. Sensitivity analysis on various parameters for lattice analysis of DUPIC fuel with WIMS-AECL code

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roh, Gyu Hong; Choi, Hang Bok; Park, Jee Won [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)

    1997-12-31

    The code WIMS-AECL has been used for the lattice analysis of DUPIC fuel. The lattice parameters calculated by the code is sensitive to the choice of number of parameters, such as the number of tracking lines, number of condensed groups, mesh spacing in the moderator region, other parameters vital to the calculation of probabilities and burnup analysis. We have studied this sensitivity with respect to these parameters and recommend their proper values which are necessary for carrying out the lattice analysis of DUPIC fuel.

  10. Generalized tolerance sensitivity and DEA metric sensitivity

    OpenAIRE

    Neralić, Luka; E. Wendell, Richard

    2015-01-01

    This paper considers the relationship between Tolerance sensitivity analysis in optimization and metric sensitivity analysis in Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). Herein, we extend the results on the generalized Tolerance framework proposed by Wendell and Chen and show how this framework includes DEA metric sensitivity as a special case. Further, we note how recent results in Tolerance sensitivity suggest some possible extensions of the results in DEA metric sensitivity.

  11. Generalized tolerance sensitivity and DEA metric sensitivity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luka Neralić

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper considers the relationship between Tolerance sensitivity analysis in optimization and metric sensitivity analysis in Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA. Herein, we extend the results on the generalized Tolerance framework proposed by Wendell and Chen and show how this framework includes DEA metric sensitivity as a special case. Further, we note how recent results in Tolerance sensitivity suggest some possible extensions of the results in DEA metric sensitivity.

  12. Demonstration sensitivity analysis for RADTRAN III

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Neuhauser, K.S.; Reardon, P.C.

    1986-10-01

    A demonstration sensitivity analysis was performed to: quantify the relative importance of 37 variables to the total incident free dose; assess the elasticity of seven dose subgroups to those same variables; develop density distributions for accident dose to combinations of accident data under wide-ranging variations; show the relationship between accident consequences and probabilities of occurrence; and develop limits for the variability of probability consequence curves

  13. Attachment in the Making: Mother and Father Sensitivity and Infants’ Responses during the Still-Face Paradigm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braungart-Rieker, Julia M.; Zentall, Shannon; Lickenbrock, Diane M.; Ekas, Naomi V.; Oshio, Toko; Planalp, Elizabeth

    2014-01-01

    This study examined the extent to which infant and parent response trajectories during the Still-Face-Paradigm (SFP) in early infancy predicted later infant-mother and infant-father attachment. Families (n = 135) participated in the SFP when infants were 3, 5, and 7 months and the Strange Situation when infants were 12 (mothers) and 14 months (fathers). Multilevel models showed that parent sensitivity assessed during the SFP was related to infants’ affective and behavioral response trajectories during the SFP, and that sensitivity and infant response trajectories predicted attachment. Results from the present study support the notion that parent and infant responses in the SFP with mothers and fathers during Bowlby’s Attachment in the Making phase provide insight into the developing parent-child attachment relationship. PMID:24833270

  14. Sensitivity analysis of water consumption in an office building

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suchacek, Tomas; Tuhovcak, Ladislav; Rucka, Jan

    2018-02-01

    This article deals with sensitivity analysis of real water consumption in an office building. During a long-term real study, reducing of pressure in its water connection was simulated. A sensitivity analysis of uneven water demand was conducted during working time at various provided pressures and at various time step duration. Correlations between maximal coefficients of water demand variation during working time and provided pressure were suggested. The influence of provided pressure in the water connection on mean coefficients of water demand variation was pointed out, altogether for working hours of all days and separately for days with identical working hours.

  15. An Overview of the Design and Analysis of Simulation Experiments for Sensitivity Analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kleijnen, J.P.C.

    2004-01-01

    Sensitivity analysis may serve validation, optimization, and risk analysis of simulation models.This review surveys classic and modern designs for experiments with simulation models.Classic designs were developed for real, non-simulated systems in agriculture, engineering, etc.These designs assume a

  16. Sensitivity analysis in the WWTP modelling community – new opportunities and applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sin, Gürkan; Ruano, M.V.; Neumann, Marc B.

    2010-01-01

    design (BSM1 plant layout) using Standardized Regression Coefficients (SRC) and (ii) Applying sensitivity analysis to help fine-tuning a fuzzy controller for a BNPR plant using Morris Screening. The results obtained from each case study are then critically discussed in view of practical applications......A mainstream viewpoint on sensitivity analysis in the wastewater modelling community is that it is a first-order differential analysis of outputs with respect to the parameters – typically obtained by perturbing one parameter at a time with a small factor. An alternative viewpoint on sensitivity...

  17. Contribution to the sample mean plot for graphical and numerical sensitivity analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bolado-Lavin, R.; Castaings, W.; Tarantola, S.

    2009-01-01

    The contribution to the sample mean plot, originally proposed by Sinclair, is revived and further developed as practical tool for global sensitivity analysis. The potentials of this simple and versatile graphical tool are discussed. Beyond the qualitative assessment provided by this approach, a statistical test is proposed for sensitivity analysis. A case study that simulates the transport of radionuclides through the geosphere from an underground disposal vault containing nuclear waste is considered as a benchmark. The new approach is tested against a very efficient sensitivity analysis method based on state dependent parameter meta-modelling

  18. Personalization of models with many model parameters : an efficient sensitivity analysis approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Donders, W.P.; Huberts, W.; van de Vosse, F.N.; Delhaas, T.

    2015-01-01

    Uncertainty quantification and global sensitivity analysis are indispensable for patient-specific applications of models that enhance diagnosis or aid decision-making. Variance-based sensitivity analysis methods, which apportion each fraction of the output uncertainty (variance) to the effects of

  19. Effects of anxiety sensitivity and expectations on the modulation of the startle eyeblink response during a caffeine challenge.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benke, Christoph; Blumenthal, Terry D; Modeß, Christiane; Hamm, Alfons O; Pané-Farré, Christiane A

    2015-09-01

    The way in which the tendency to fear somatic arousal sensations (anxiety sensitivity), in interaction with the created expectations regarding arousal induction, might affect defensive responding to a symptom provocation challenge is not yet understood. The present study investigated the effect of anxiety sensitivity on autonomic arousal, startle eyeblink responses, and reported arousal and alertness to expected vs. unexpected caffeine consumption. To create a match/mismatch of expected and experienced arousal, high and low anxiety sensitive participants received caffeine vs. no drug either mixed in coffee (expectation of arousal induction) or in bitter lemon soda (no expectation of arousal induction) on four separate occasions. Autonomic arousal (heart rate, skin conductance level), respiration (end-tidal CO2, minute ventilation), defensive reflex responses (startle eyeblink), and reported arousal and alertness were recorded prior to, immediately and 30 min after beverage ingestion. Caffeine increased ventilation, autonomic arousal, and startle response magnitudes. Both groups showed comparable levels of autonomic and respiratory responses. The startle eyeblink responses were decreased when caffeine-induced arousal occurred unexpectedly, e.g., after administering caffeine in bitter lemon. This effect was more accentuated in high anxiety sensitive persons. Moreover, in high anxiety sensitive persons, the expectation of arousal (coffee consumption) led to higher subjective alertness when administering caffeine and increased arousal even if no drug was consumed. Unexpected symptom provocation leads to increased attention allocation toward feared arousal sensations in high anxiety sensitive persons. This finding broadens our understanding of modulatory mechanisms in defensive responding to bodily symptoms.

  20. A New Computationally Frugal Method For Sensitivity Analysis Of Environmental Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rakovec, O.; Hill, M. C.; Clark, M. P.; Weerts, A.; Teuling, R.; Borgonovo, E.; Uijlenhoet, R.

    2013-12-01

    Effective and efficient parameter sensitivity analysis methods are crucial to understand the behaviour of complex environmental models and use of models in risk assessment. This paper proposes a new computationally frugal method for analyzing parameter sensitivity: the Distributed Evaluation of Local Sensitivity Analysis (DELSA). The DELSA method can be considered a hybrid of local and global methods, and focuses explicitly on multiscale evaluation of parameter sensitivity across the parameter space. Results of the DELSA method are compared with the popular global, variance-based Sobol' method and the delta method. We assess the parameter sensitivity of both (1) a simple non-linear reservoir model with only two parameters, and (2) five different "bucket-style" hydrologic models applied to a medium-sized catchment (200 km2) in the Belgian Ardennes. Results show that in both the synthetic and real-world examples, the global Sobol' method and the DELSA method provide similar sensitivities, with the DELSA method providing more detailed insight at much lower computational cost. The ability to understand how sensitivity measures vary through parameter space with modest computational requirements provides exciting new opportunities.

  1. PLATINUM SENSITIVE 2 LIKE impacts growth, root morphology, seed set, and stress responses.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amr R A Kataya

    Full Text Available Eukaryotic protein phosphatase 4 (PP4 is a PP2A-type protein phosphatase that is part of a conserved complex with regulatory factors PSY2 and PP4R2. Various lines of Arabidopsis thaliana with mutated PP4 subunit genes were constructed to study the so far completely unknown functions of PP4 in plants. Mutants with knocked out putative functional homolog of the PSY2 LIKE (PSY2L gene were dwarf and bushy, while plants with knocked out PP4R2 LIKE (PP4R2L looked very similar to WT. The psy2l seedlings had short roots with disorganized morphology and impaired meristem. Seedling growth was sensitive to the genotoxin cisplatin. Global transcript analysis (RNA-seq of seedlings and rosette leaves revealed several groups of genes, shared between both types of tissues, strongly influenced by knocked out PSY2L. Receptor kinases, CRINKLY3 and WAG1, important for growth and development, were down-regulated 3-7 times. EUKARYOTIC ELONGATION FACTOR5A1 was down-regulated 4-6 fold. Analysis of hormone sensitive genes indicated that abscisic acid levels were high, while auxin, cytokinin and gibberellic acid levels were low in psy2l. Expression of specific transcription factors involved in regulation of anthocyanin synthesis were strongly elevated, e.g. the master regulator PAP1, and intriguingly TT8, which is otherwise mainly expressed in seeds. The psy2l mutants accumulated anthocyanins under conditions where WT did not, pointing to PSY2L as a possible upstream negative regulator of PAP1 and TT8. Expression of the sugar-phosphate transporter GPT2, important for cellular sugar and phosphate homeostasis, was enhanced 7-8 times. Several DNA damage response genes, including the cell cycle inhibitor gene WEE1, were up-regulated in psy2l. The activation of DNA repair signaling genes, in combination with phenotypic traits showing aberrant root meristem and sensitivity to the genotoxic cisplatin, substantiate the involvement of Arabidopsis PSY2L in maintenance of genome

  2. Seismic analysis of steam generator and parameter sensitivity studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Qian Hao; Xu Dinggen; Yang Ren'an; Liang Xingyun

    2013-01-01

    Background: The steam generator (SG) serves as the primary means for removing the heat generated within the reactor core and is part of the reactor coolant system (RCS) pressure boundary. Purpose: Seismic analysis in required for SG, whose seismic category is Cat. I. Methods: The analysis model of SG is created with moisture separator assembly and tube bundle assembly herein. The seismic analysis is performed with RCS pipe and Reactor Pressure Vessel (RPV). Results: The seismic stress results of SG are obtained. In addition, parameter sensitivities of seismic analysis results are studied, such as the effect of another SG, support, anti-vibration bars (AVBs), and so on. Our results show that seismic results are sensitive to support and AVBs setting. Conclusions: The guidance and comments on these parameters are summarized for equipment design and analysis, which should be focused on in future new type NPP SG's research and design. (authors)

  3. An Application of Monte-Carlo-Based Sensitivity Analysis on the Overlap in Discriminant Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Razmyan

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Discriminant analysis (DA is used for the measurement of estimates of a discriminant function by minimizing their group misclassifications to predict group membership of newly sampled data. A major source of misclassification in DA is due to the overlapping of groups. The uncertainty in the input variables and model parameters needs to be properly characterized in decision making. This study combines DEA-DA with a sensitivity analysis approach to an assessment of the influence of banks’ variables on the overall variance in overlap in a DA in order to determine which variables are most significant. A Monte-Carlo-based sensitivity analysis is considered for computing the set of first-order sensitivity indices of the variables to estimate the contribution of each uncertain variable. The results show that the uncertainties in the loans granted and different deposit variables are more significant than uncertainties in other banks’ variables in decision making.

  4. Sensitivity Analysis on Elbow Piping Components in Seismically Isolated NPP under Seismic Loading

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ju, Hee Kun; Hahm, Dae Gi; Kim, Min Kyu [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Jeon, Bub Gyu; Kim, Nam Sik [Pusan National University, Busan (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    In this study, the FE model is verified using specimen test results and simulation with parameter variations are conducted. Effective parameters will randomly sampled and used as input values for simulations to be applied to the fragility analysis. pipelines are representative of them because they could undergo larger displacements when they are supported on both isolated and non-isolated structures simultaneously. Especially elbows are critical components of pipes under severed loading conditions such as earthquake action because strain is accumulated on them during the repeated bending of the pipe. Therefore, seismic performance of pipe elbow components should be examined thoroughly based on the fragility analysis. Fragility assessment of interface pipe should take different sources of uncertainty into account. However, selection of important sources and repeated tests with many random input values are very time consuming and expensive, so numerical analysis is commonly used. In the present study, finite element (FE) model of elbow component will be validated using the dynamic test results of elbow components. Using the verified model, sensitivity analysis will be implemented as a preliminary process of seismic fragility of piping system. Several important input parameters are selected and how the uncertainty of them are apportioned to the uncertainty of the elbow response is to be studied. Piping elbows are critical components under cyclic loading conditions as they are subjected large displacement. In a seismically isolated NPP, seismic capacity of piping system should be evaluated with caution. Seismic fragility assessment preliminarily needs parameter sensitivity analysis about the output of interest with different input parameter values.

  5. Response to Marie Paz Morales' "Influence of Culture and Language Sensitive Physics on Science Attitude Achievement"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cole, Mikel Walker

    2015-01-01

    This response to Marie Paz Morales' "Influence of culture and language sensitive physics on science attitude achievement" explores the ideas of culturally responsive pedagogy and critical literacy to examine some implications for culturally responsive science instruction implicit in the original manuscript. [For "Influence of…

  6. Steady state likelihood ratio sensitivity analysis for stiff kinetic Monte Carlo simulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Núñez, M; Vlachos, D G

    2015-01-28

    Kinetic Monte Carlo simulation is an integral tool in the study of complex physical phenomena present in applications ranging from heterogeneous catalysis to biological systems to crystal growth and atmospheric sciences. Sensitivity analysis is useful for identifying important parameters and rate-determining steps, but the finite-difference application of sensitivity analysis is computationally demanding. Techniques based on the likelihood ratio method reduce the computational cost of sensitivity analysis by obtaining all gradient information in a single run. However, we show that disparity in time scales of microscopic events, which is ubiquitous in real systems, introduces drastic statistical noise into derivative estimates for parameters affecting the fast events. In this work, the steady-state likelihood ratio sensitivity analysis is extended to singularly perturbed systems by invoking partial equilibration for fast reactions, that is, by working on the fast and slow manifolds of the chemistry. Derivatives on each time scale are computed independently and combined to the desired sensitivity coefficients to considerably reduce the noise in derivative estimates for stiff systems. The approach is demonstrated in an analytically solvable linear system.

  7. Analysis of JPSS J1 VIIRS Polarization Sensitivity Using the NIST T-SIRCUS

    Science.gov (United States)

    McIntire, Jeffrey W.; Young, James B.; Moyer, David; Waluschka, Eugene; Oudrari, Hassan; Xiong, Xiaoxiong

    2015-01-01

    The polarization sensitivity of the Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) J1 Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) measured pre-launch using a broadband source was observed to be larger than expected for many reflective bands. Ray trace modeling predicted that the observed polarization sensitivity was the result of larger diattenuation at the edges of the focal plane filter spectral bandpass. Additional ground measurements were performed using a monochromatic source (the NIST T-SIRCUS) to input linearly polarized light at a number of wavelengths across the bandpass of two VIIRS spectral bands and two scan angles. This work describes the data processing, analysis, and results derived from the T-SIRCUS measurements, comparing them with broadband measurements. Results have shown that the observed degree of linear polarization, when weighted by the sensor's spectral response function, is generally larger on the edges and smaller in the center of the spectral bandpass, as predicted. However, phase angle changes in the center of the bandpass differ between model and measurement. Integration of the monochromatic polarization sensitivity over wavelength produced results consistent with the broadband source measurements, for all cases considered.

  8. Reinforcement Sensitivity and Social Anxiety in Combat Veterans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kimbrel, Nathan A.; Meyer, Eric C.; DeBeer, Bryann B.; Mitchell, John T.; Kimbrel, Azure D.; Nelson-Gray, Rosemery O.; Morissette, Sandra B.

    2017-01-01

    Objective The present study tested the hypothesis that low behavioral approach system (BAS) sensitivity is associated with social anxiety in combat veterans. Method Self-report measures of reinforcement sensitivity, combat exposure, social interaction anxiety, and social observation anxiety were administered to 197 Iraq/Afghanistan combat veterans. Results As expected, combat exposure, behavioral inhibition system (BIS) sensitivity, and fight-flight-freeze system (FFFS) sensitivity were positively associated with both social interaction anxiety and social observation anxiety. In contrast, BAS sensitivity was negatively associated with social interaction anxiety only. An analysis of the BAS subscales revealed that the Reward Responsiveness subscale was the only BAS subscale associated with social interaction anxiety. BAS-Reward Responsiveness was also associated with social observation anxiety. Conclusion The findings from the present research provide further evidence that low BAS sensitivity may be associated with social anxiety over and above the effects of BIS and FFFS sensitivity. PMID:28966424

  9. Sensitivity Analysis of the Critical Speed in Railway Vehicle Dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bigoni, Daniele; True, Hans; Engsig-Karup, Allan Peter

    2014-01-01

    We present an approach to global sensitivity analysis aiming at the reduction of its computational cost without compromising the results. The method is based on sampling methods, cubature rules, High-Dimensional Model Representation and Total Sensitivity Indices. The approach has a general applic...

  10. Application of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis to the air quality SHERPA modelling tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pisoni, E.; Albrecht, D.; Mara, T. A.; Rosati, R.; Tarantola, S.; Thunis, P.

    2018-06-01

    Air quality has significantly improved in Europe over the past few decades. Nonetheless we still find high concentrations in measurements mainly in specific regions or cities. This dimensional shift, from EU-wide to hot-spot exceedances, calls for a novel approach to regional air quality management (to complement EU-wide existing policies). The SHERPA (Screening for High Emission Reduction Potentials on Air quality) modelling tool was developed in this context. It provides an additional tool to be used in support to regional/local decision makers responsible for the design of air quality plans. It is therefore important to evaluate the quality of the SHERPA model, and its behavior in the face of various kinds of uncertainty. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis techniques can be used for this purpose. They both reveal the links between assumptions and forecasts, help in-model simplification and may highlight unexpected relationships between inputs and outputs. Thus, a policy steered SHERPA module - predicting air quality improvement linked to emission reduction scenarios - was evaluated by means of (1) uncertainty analysis (UA) to quantify uncertainty in the model output, and (2) by sensitivity analysis (SA) to identify the most influential input sources of this uncertainty. The results of this study provide relevant information about the key variables driving the SHERPA output uncertainty, and advise policy-makers and modellers where to place their efforts for an improved decision-making process.

  11. An Introduction to Sensitivity Analysis for Unobserved Confounding in Non-Experimental Prevention Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuramoto, S. Janet; Stuart, Elizabeth A.

    2013-01-01

    Despite that randomization is the gold standard for estimating causal relationships, many questions in prevention science are left to be answered through non-experimental studies often because randomization is either infeasible or unethical. While methods such as propensity score matching can adjust for observed confounding, unobserved confounding is the Achilles heel of most non-experimental studies. This paper describes and illustrates seven sensitivity analysis techniques that assess the sensitivity of study results to an unobserved confounder. These methods were categorized into two groups to reflect differences in their conceptualization of sensitivity analysis, as well as their targets of interest. As a motivating example we examine the sensitivity of the association between maternal suicide and offspring’s risk for suicide attempt hospitalization. While inferences differed slightly depending on the type of sensitivity analysis conducted, overall the association between maternal suicide and offspring’s hospitalization for suicide attempt was found to be relatively robust to an unobserved confounder. The ease of implementation and the insight these analyses provide underscores sensitivity analysis techniques as an important tool for non-experimental studies. The implementation of sensitivity analysis can help increase confidence in results from non-experimental studies and better inform prevention researchers and policymakers regarding potential intervention targets. PMID:23408282

  12. What can we learn from global sensitivity analysis of biochemical systems?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kent, Edward; Neumann, Stefan; Kummer, Ursula; Mendes, Pedro

    2013-01-01

    Most biological models of intermediate size, and probably all large models, need to cope with the fact that many of their parameter values are unknown. In addition, it may not be possible to identify these values unambiguously on the basis of experimental data. This poses the question how reliable predictions made using such models are. Sensitivity analysis is commonly used to measure the impact of each model parameter on its variables. However, the results of such analyses can be dependent on an exact set of parameter values due to nonlinearity. To mitigate this problem, global sensitivity analysis techniques are used to calculate parameter sensitivities in a wider parameter space. We applied global sensitivity analysis to a selection of five signalling and metabolic models, several of which incorporate experimentally well-determined parameters. Assuming these models represent physiological reality, we explored how the results could change under increasing amounts of parameter uncertainty. Our results show that parameter sensitivities calculated with the physiological parameter values are not necessarily the most frequently observed under random sampling, even in a small interval around the physiological values. Often multimodal distributions were observed. Unsurprisingly, the range of possible sensitivity coefficient values increased with the level of parameter uncertainty, though the amount of parameter uncertainty at which the pattern of control was able to change differed among the models analysed. We suggest that this level of uncertainty can be used as a global measure of model robustness. Finally a comparison of different global sensitivity analysis techniques shows that, if high-throughput computing resources are available, then random sampling may actually be the most suitable technique.

  13. UMTS Common Channel Sensitivity Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pratas, Nuno; Rodrigues, António; Santos, Frederico

    2006-01-01

    and as such it is necessary that both channels be available across the cell radius. This requirement makes the choice of the transmission parameters a fundamental one. This paper presents a sensitivity analysis regarding the transmission parameters of two UMTS common channels: RACH and FACH. Optimization of these channels...... is performed and values for the key transmission parameters in both common channels are obtained. On RACH these parameters are the message to preamble offset, the initial SIR target and the preamble power step while on FACH it is the transmission power offset....

  14. Measurement and analysis of field-induced crystallographic texture using curved position-sensitive diffraction detectors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Simons, Hugh; Daniels, John E.; Studer, Andrew J.

    2014-01-01

    This paper outlines measurement and analysis methodologies created for determining the structural responses of electroceramics to an electric field. A sample stage is developed to apply electric fields to ceramic materials at elevated temperatures during neutron diffraction experiments. The tested...... employing a curved positive sensitive detector. Methodologies are proposed to account for the geometrical effects when vector fields are applied to textured materials with angularly dispersive detector geometries. Representative results are presented for the ferroelectric (Bi1/2Na1/2)TiO3-6%BaTiO3 (BNT-6BT...

  15. Global sensitivity analysis using emulators, with an example analysis of large fire plumes based on FDS simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kelsey, Adrian [Health and Safety Laboratory, Harpur Hill, Buxton (United Kingdom)

    2015-12-15

    Uncertainty in model predictions of the behaviour of fires is an important issue in fire safety analysis in nuclear power plants. A global sensitivity analysis can help identify the input parameters or sub-models that have the most significant effect on model predictions. However, to perform a global sensitivity analysis using Monte Carlo sampling might require thousands of simulations to be performed and therefore would not be practical for an analysis based on a complex fire code using computational fluid dynamics (CFD). An alternative approach is to perform a global sensitivity analysis using an emulator. Gaussian process emulators can be built using a limited number of simulations and once built a global sensitivity analysis can be performed on an emulator, rather than using simulations directly. Typically reliable emulators can be built using ten simulations for each parameter under consideration, therefore allowing a global sensitivity analysis to be performed, even for a complex computer code. In this paper we use an example of a large scale pool fire to demonstrate an emulator based approach to global sensitivity analysis. In that work an emulator based global sensitivity analysis was used to identify the key uncertain model inputs affecting the entrainment rates and flame heights in large Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) fire plumes. The pool fire simulations were performed using the Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS) software. Five model inputs were varied: the fire diameter, burn rate, radiative fraction, computational grid cell size and choice of turbulence model. The ranges used for these parameters in the analysis were determined from experiment and literature. The Gaussian process emulators used in the analysis were created using 127 FDS simulations. The emulators were checked for reliability, and then used to perform a global sensitivity analysis and uncertainty analysis. Large-scale ignited releases of LNG on water were performed by Sandia National

  16. Ovalbumin-coated pH-sensitive microneedle arrays effectively induce ovalbumin-specific antibody and T-cell responses in mice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Maaden, Koen; Varypataki, Eleni Maria; Romeijn, Stefan; Ossendorp, Ferry; Jiskoot, Wim; Bouwstra, Joke

    2014-10-01

    The aim of this work was to study the applicability of antigen-coated pH-sensitive microneedle arrays for effective vaccination strategies. Therefore, a model antigen (ovalbumin) was coated onto pH-sensitive (pyridine-modified) microneedle arrays to test pH-triggered antigen release by applying the coated arrays onto ex vivo human skin, and by conducting a dermal immunization study in mice. The release of antigen into ex vivo human skin from the coated microneedles was determined by using radioactively labeled ovalbumin. To investigate the induction of antigen-specific IgG, and CD4(+) and CD8(+) T-cell responses, BALB/c mice were immunized with antigen-coated pH-sensitive microneedles by the 'coat and poke' approach. These responses were compared to responses induced by the 'poke and patch' approach, and subcutaneous and intradermal vaccination with classic hypodermic needles. The pH-sensitive microneedle arrays were efficiently coated with ovalbumin (95% coating efficiency) and upon application of six microneedle arrays 4.27 of 7 μg ovalbumin was delivered into the skin, showing a release efficiency of 70%. In contrast, the 'poke and patch' approach led to a delivery of only 6.91 of 100 μg ovalbumin (7% delivery efficiency). Immunization by means of ovalbumin-coated microneedles resulted in robust CD4(+) and CD8(+) T-cell responses comparable to those obtained after subcutaneous or intradermal immunization with conventional needles. Moreover, it effectively induced IgG responses; however, it required prime-boost immunizations before antibodies were produced. In conclusion, antigen delivery into ex vivo human skin by antigen-coated pH-sensitive microneedle arrays is more efficient than the 'poke-and-patch' approach and in vivo vaccination studies show the applicability of pH-sensitive microneedles for the induction of both T cell and B cell responses. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. A comprehensive sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of a milk drying process

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ferrari, A.; Gutiérrez, S.; Sin, G.

    2015-01-01

    A simple steady state model of a milk drying process was built to help process understanding. It involves a spray chamber and also internal/external fluid beds. The model was subjected to a statistical analysis for quality assurance using sensitivity analysis (SA) of inputs/parameters, identifiab......A simple steady state model of a milk drying process was built to help process understanding. It involves a spray chamber and also internal/external fluid beds. The model was subjected to a statistical analysis for quality assurance using sensitivity analysis (SA) of inputs...... technique. SA results provide evidence towards over-parameterization in the model, and the chamber inlet dry bulb air temperature was the variable (input) with the highest sensitivity. IA results indicated that at most 4 parameters are identifiable: two from spray chamber and one from each fluid bed dryer...

  18. An educationally inspired illustration of two-dimensional Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (QMRA) and sensitivity analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vásquez, G A; Busschaert, P; Haberbeck, L U; Uyttendaele, M; Geeraerd, A H

    2014-11-03

    growth temperature of L. monocytogenes. Uncertainty in the dose-response relationship was not included in the analysis, hence the level of its influence cannot be assessed in the present research. Finally, a baseline global workflow for QMRA and sensitivity analysis is proposed. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. Analytical expression for position sensitivity of linear response beam position monitor having inter-electrode cross talk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kumar, Mukesh, E-mail: mukeshk@rrcat.gov.in [Beam Diagnostics Section, Indus Operations, Beam Dynamics & Diagnostics Division, Raja Ramanna Centre for Advanced Technology, Indore, 452013 MP (India); Homi Bhabha National Institute, Training School Complex, Anushakti Nagar, Mumbai 400 094 (India); Ojha, A.; Garg, A.D.; Puntambekar, T.A. [Beam Diagnostics Section, Indus Operations, Beam Dynamics & Diagnostics Division, Raja Ramanna Centre for Advanced Technology, Indore, 452013 MP (India); Senecha, V.K. [Homi Bhabha National Institute, Training School Complex, Anushakti Nagar, Mumbai 400 094 (India); Ion Source Lab., Proton Linac & Superconducting Cavities Division, Raja Ramanna Centre for Advanced Technology, Indore, 452013 MP (India)

    2017-02-01

    According to the quasi electrostatic model of linear response capacitive beam position monitor (BPM), the position sensitivity of the device depends only on the aperture of the device and it is independent of processing frequency and load impedance. In practice, however, due to the inter-electrode capacitive coupling (cross talk), the actual position sensitivity of the device decreases with increasing frequency and load impedance. We have taken into account the inter-electrode capacitance to derive and propose a new analytical expression for the position sensitivity as a function of frequency and load impedance. The sensitivity of a linear response shoe-box type BPM has been obtained through simulation using CST Studio Suite to verify and confirm the validity of the new analytical equation. Good agreement between the simulation results and the new analytical expression suggest that this method can be exploited for proper designing of BPM.

  20. Deterministic sensitivity analysis of two-phase flow systems: forward and adjoint methods. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cacuci, D.G.

    1984-07-01

    This report presents a self-contained mathematical formalism for deterministic sensitivity analysis of two-phase flow systems, a detailed application to sensitivity analysis of the homogeneous equilibrium model of two-phase flow, and a representative application to sensitivity analysis of a model (simulating pump-trip-type accidents in BWRs) where a transition between single phase and two phase occurs. The rigor and generality of this sensitivity analysis formalism stem from the use of Gateaux (G-) differentials. This report highlights the major aspects of deterministic (forward and adjoint) sensitivity analysis, including derivation of the forward sensitivity equations, derivation of sensitivity expressions in terms of adjoint functions, explicit construction of the adjoint system satisfied by these adjoint functions, determination of the characteristics of this adjoint system, and demonstration that these characteristics are the same as those of the original quasilinear two-phase flow equations. This proves that whenever the original two-phase flow problem is solvable, the adjoint system is also solvable and, in principle, the same numerical methods can be used to solve both the original and adjoint equations

  1. Sensitivity to immunodepressant action of cyclophosphamide: analysis of interstrain differences in mice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pevnitsky, L A; Telegin LYu; Zhirnov, G F; Mazurov, A V; Viktorov, V V

    1985-01-01

    In one of our previous studies (Pevnitsky et al., Bull. exp. Biol. Med., 83, 438-440, 1977), we have found significant differences between various strains of mice in the sensitivity to immunodepressant action of cyclophosphamide (CP). The degree of these differences was not determined by the level of their immune response which indicates that the cause of the interstrain differences lies in a specific reaction of mice to the immunodepressant. The main parameters of CP effect which may be responsible for variable sensitivity to the immunodepressant action in vivo were studied in several murine strains (Balb/cJLacSto, CBA/CaLacSto, and DBA/2JSto): (1) rate of the preparation activation in liver microsomes; (2) pharmacokinetics of NBP-metabolites in the blood serum; (3) immunodepressant action of the in vivo activated CP; (4) sensitivity of immunocompetent target cells to activated CP effect. It was found that DBA/2 mice are the most sensitive to CP in vivo. The level of "active" CP in their blood serum is higher than in BALB/c mice. Besides, they are characterized by a higher sensitivity of immunocompetent cells compared to BALB/c and CBA mice.

  2. Triangles in ROC space: History and theory of "nonparametric" measures of sensitivity and response bias.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macmillan, N A; Creelman, C D

    1996-06-01

    Can accuracy and response bias in two-stimulus, two-response recognition or detection experiments be measured nonparametrically? Pollack and Norman (1964) answered this question affirmatively for sensitivity, Hodos (1970) for bias: Both proposed measures based on triangular areas in receiver-operating characteristic space. Their papers, and especially a paper by Grier (1971) that provided computing formulas for the measures, continue to be heavily cited in a wide range of content areas. In our sample of articles, most authors described triangle-based measures as making fewer assumptions than measures associated with detection theory. However, we show that statistics based on products or ratios of right triangle areas, including a recently proposed bias index and a not-yetproposed but apparently plausible sensitivity index, are consistent with a decision process based on logistic distributions. Even the Pollack and Norman measure, which is based on non-right triangles, is approximately logistic for low values of sensitivity. Simple geometric models for sensitivity and bias are not nonparametric, even if their implications are not acknowledged in the defining publications.

  3. Sensitivity analysis of periodic errors in heterodyne interferometry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ganguly, Vasishta; Kim, Nam Ho; Kim, Hyo Soo; Schmitz, Tony

    2011-01-01

    Periodic errors in heterodyne displacement measuring interferometry occur due to frequency mixing in the interferometer. These nonlinearities are typically characterized as first- and second-order periodic errors which cause a cyclical (non-cumulative) variation in the reported displacement about the true value. This study implements an existing analytical periodic error model in order to identify sensitivities of the first- and second-order periodic errors to the input parameters, including rotational misalignments of the polarizing beam splitter and mixing polarizer, non-orthogonality of the two laser frequencies, ellipticity in the polarizations of the two laser beams, and different transmission coefficients in the polarizing beam splitter. A local sensitivity analysis is first conducted to examine the sensitivities of the periodic errors with respect to each input parameter about the nominal input values. Next, a variance-based approach is used to study the global sensitivities of the periodic errors by calculating the Sobol' sensitivity indices using Monte Carlo simulation. The effect of variation in the input uncertainty on the computed sensitivity indices is examined. It is seen that the first-order periodic error is highly sensitive to non-orthogonality of the two linearly polarized laser frequencies, while the second-order error is most sensitive to the rotational misalignment between the laser beams and the polarizing beam splitter. A particle swarm optimization technique is finally used to predict the possible setup imperfections based on experimentally generated values for periodic errors

  4. Sensitivity analysis of periodic errors in heterodyne interferometry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ganguly, Vasishta; Kim, Nam Ho; Kim, Hyo Soo; Schmitz, Tony

    2011-03-01

    Periodic errors in heterodyne displacement measuring interferometry occur due to frequency mixing in the interferometer. These nonlinearities are typically characterized as first- and second-order periodic errors which cause a cyclical (non-cumulative) variation in the reported displacement about the true value. This study implements an existing analytical periodic error model in order to identify sensitivities of the first- and second-order periodic errors to the input parameters, including rotational misalignments of the polarizing beam splitter and mixing polarizer, non-orthogonality of the two laser frequencies, ellipticity in the polarizations of the two laser beams, and different transmission coefficients in the polarizing beam splitter. A local sensitivity analysis is first conducted to examine the sensitivities of the periodic errors with respect to each input parameter about the nominal input values. Next, a variance-based approach is used to study the global sensitivities of the periodic errors by calculating the Sobol' sensitivity indices using Monte Carlo simulation. The effect of variation in the input uncertainty on the computed sensitivity indices is examined. It is seen that the first-order periodic error is highly sensitive to non-orthogonality of the two linearly polarized laser frequencies, while the second-order error is most sensitive to the rotational misalignment between the laser beams and the polarizing beam splitter. A particle swarm optimization technique is finally used to predict the possible setup imperfections based on experimentally generated values for periodic errors.

  5. Development of the high-order decoupled direct method in three dimensions for particulate matter: enabling advanced sensitivity analysis in air quality models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Zhang

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available The high-order decoupled direct method in three dimensions for particulate matter (HDDM-3D/PM has been implemented in the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ model to enable advanced sensitivity analysis. The major effort of this work is to develop high-order DDM sensitivity analysis of ISORROPIA, the inorganic aerosol module of CMAQ. A case-specific approach has been applied, and the sensitivities of activity coefficients and water content are explicitly computed. Stand-alone tests are performed for ISORROPIA by comparing the sensitivities (first- and second-order computed by HDDM and the brute force (BF approximations. Similar comparison has also been carried out for CMAQ sensitivities simulated using a week-long winter episode for a continental US domain. Second-order sensitivities of aerosol species (e.g., sulfate, nitrate, and ammonium with respect to domain-wide SO2, NOx, and NH3 emissions show agreement with BF results, yet exhibit less noise in locations where BF results are demonstrably inaccurate. Second-order sensitivity analysis elucidates poorly understood nonlinear responses of secondary inorganic aerosols to their precursors and competing species. Adding second-order sensitivity terms to the Taylor series projection of the nitrate concentrations with a 50% reduction in domain-wide NOx or SO2 emissions rates improves the prediction with statistical significance.

  6. Integrated thermal and nonthermal treatment technology and subsystem cost sensitivity analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harvego, L.A.; Schafer, J.J.

    1997-02-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Environmental Management Office of Science and Technology (EM-50) authorized studies on alternative systems for treating contact-handled DOE mixed low-level radioactive waste (MLLW). The on-going Integrated Thermal Treatment Systems' (ITTS) and the Integrated Nonthermal Treatment Systems' (INTS) studies satisfy this request. EM-50 further authorized supporting studies including this technology and subsystem cost sensitivity analysis. This analysis identifies areas where technology development could have the greatest impact on total life cycle system costs. These areas are determined by evaluating the sensitivity of system life cycle costs relative to changes in life cycle component or phase costs, subsystem costs, contingency allowance, facility capacity, operating life, and disposal costs. For all treatment systems, the most cost sensitive life cycle phase is the operations and maintenance phase and the most cost sensitive subsystem is the receiving and inspection/preparation subsystem. These conclusions were unchanged when the sensitivity analysis was repeated on a present value basis. Opportunity exists for technology development to reduce waste receiving and inspection/preparation costs by effectively minimizing labor costs, the major cost driver, within the maintenance and operations phase of the life cycle

  7. Personalization of models with many model parameters: an efficient sensitivity analysis approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donders, W P; Huberts, W; van de Vosse, F N; Delhaas, T

    2015-10-01

    Uncertainty quantification and global sensitivity analysis are indispensable for patient-specific applications of models that enhance diagnosis or aid decision-making. Variance-based sensitivity analysis methods, which apportion each fraction of the output uncertainty (variance) to the effects of individual input parameters or their interactions, are considered the gold standard. The variance portions are called the Sobol sensitivity indices and can be estimated by a Monte Carlo (MC) approach (e.g., Saltelli's method [1]) or by employing a metamodel (e.g., the (generalized) polynomial chaos expansion (gPCE) [2, 3]). All these methods require a large number of model evaluations when estimating the Sobol sensitivity indices for models with many parameters [4]. To reduce the computational cost, we introduce a two-step approach. In the first step, a subset of important parameters is identified for each output of interest using the screening method of Morris [5]. In the second step, a quantitative variance-based sensitivity analysis is performed using gPCE. Efficient sampling strategies are introduced to minimize the number of model runs required to obtain the sensitivity indices for models considering multiple outputs. The approach is tested using a model that was developed for predicting post-operative flows after creation of a vascular access for renal failure patients. We compare the sensitivity indices obtained with the novel two-step approach with those obtained from a reference analysis that applies Saltelli's MC method. The two-step approach was found to yield accurate estimates of the sensitivity indices at two orders of magnitude lower computational cost. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  8. Source apportionment and sensitivity analysis: two methodologies with two different purposes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clappier, Alain; Belis, Claudio A.; Pernigotti, Denise; Thunis, Philippe

    2017-11-01

    This work reviews the existing methodologies for source apportionment and sensitivity analysis to identify key differences and stress their implicit limitations. The emphasis is laid on the differences between source impacts (sensitivity analysis) and contributions (source apportionment) obtained by using four different methodologies: brute-force top-down, brute-force bottom-up, tagged species and decoupled direct method (DDM). A simple theoretical example to compare these approaches is used highlighting differences and potential implications for policy. When the relationships between concentration and emissions are linear, impacts and contributions are equivalent concepts. In this case, source apportionment and sensitivity analysis may be used indifferently for both air quality planning purposes and quantifying source contributions. However, this study demonstrates that when the relationship between emissions and concentrations is nonlinear, sensitivity approaches are not suitable to retrieve source contributions and source apportionment methods are not appropriate to evaluate the impact of abatement strategies. A quantification of the potential nonlinearities should therefore be the first step prior to source apportionment or planning applications, to prevent any limitations in their use. When nonlinearity is mild, these limitations may, however, be acceptable in the context of the other uncertainties inherent to complex models. Moreover, when using sensitivity analysis for planning, it is important to note that, under nonlinear circumstances, the calculated impacts will only provide information for the exact conditions (e.g. emission reduction share) that are simulated.

  9. Metabolic and fibrinolytic response to changed insulin sensitivity in users of oral contraceptives

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Kresten R.; Christiansen, Erik; Madsbad, Sten

    1999-01-01

    systems, are relevant in the evaluation of the risk of developing vascular disorders or diabetes in OC users. We studied insulin sensitivity index (S(I)), glucose effectiveness (S(g)), and insulin response in young, healthy women by frequently sampled intravenous glucose tolerance tests before and after...... randomization to 6 months of treatment with ethinyl estradiol in triphasic combination with norgestimate (n = 17) or gestodene (n = 20). Measurements of fasting triglycerides and antigen concentrations of tissue-type plasminogen activator (t-PA) and plasminogen activator inhibitor type 1 (PAI-1) were also...... included. Both compounds increased fasting plasma insulin and reduced S(i) but did not affect S(g). The relationships between S(i) and insulin response were unchanged. No consistent correlation between insulin sensitivity and triglycerides, t-PA, or PAI-1 were demonstrated before or during treatment. We...

  10. EV range sensitivity analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ostafew, C. [Azure Dynamics Corp., Toronto, ON (Canada)

    2010-07-01

    This presentation included a sensitivity analysis of electric vehicle components on overall efficiency. The presentation provided an overview of drive cycles and discussed the major contributors to range in terms of rolling resistance; aerodynamic drag; motor efficiency; and vehicle mass. Drive cycles that were presented included: New York City Cycle (NYCC); urban dynamometer drive cycle; and US06. A summary of the findings were presented for each of the major contributors. Rolling resistance was found to have a balanced effect on each drive cycle and proportional to range. In terms of aerodynamic drive, there was a large effect on US06 range. A large effect was also found on NYCC range in terms of motor efficiency and vehicle mass. figs.

  11. Proteomic responses of drought-tolerant and drought-sensitive cotton varieties to drought stress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Haiyan; Ni, Zhiyong; Chen, Quanjia; Guo, Zhongjun; Gao, Wenwei; Su, Xiujuan; Qu, Yanying

    2016-06-01

    Drought, one of the most widespread factors reducing agricultural crop productivity, affects biological processes such as development, architecture, flowering and senescence. Although protein analysis techniques and genome sequencing have made facilitated the proteomic study of cotton, information on genetic differences associated with proteomic changes in response to drought between different cotton genotypes is lacking. To determine the effects of drought stress on cotton seedlings, we used two-dimensional polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis (2-DE) and matrix-assisted laser desorption ionization time-of-flight (MALDI-TOF) mass spectrometry to comparatively analyze proteome of drought-responsive proteins during the seedling stage in two cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) cultivars, drought-tolerant KK1543 and drought-sensitive Xinluzao26. A total of 110 protein spots were detected on 2-DE maps, of which 56 were identified by MALDI-TOF and MALDI-TOF/TOF mass spectrometry. The identified proteins were mainly associated with metabolism (46.4 %), antioxidants (14.2 %), and transport and cellular structure (23.2 %). Some key proteins had significantly different expression patterns between the two genotypes. In particular, 5-methyltetrahydropteroyltriglutamate-homocysteine methyltransferase, UDP-D-glucose pyrophosphorylase and ascorbate peroxidase were up-regulated in KK1543 compared with Xinluzao26. Under drought stress conditions, the vacuolar H(+)-ATPase catalytic subunit, a 14-3-3g protein, translation initiation factor 5A and pathogenesis-related protein 10 were up-regulated in KK1543, whereas ribosomal protein S12, actin, cytosolic copper/zinc superoxide dismutase, protein disulfide isomerase, S-adenosylmethionine synthase and cysteine synthase were down-regulated in Xinluzao26. This work represents the first characterization of proteomic changes that occur in response to drought in roots of cotton plants. These differentially expressed proteins may be related to

  12. Topology Optimization for Minimizing the Resonant Response of Plates with Constrained Layer Damping Treatment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhanpeng Fang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A topology optimization method is proposed to minimize the resonant response of plates with constrained layer damping (CLD treatment under specified broadband harmonic excitations. The topology optimization problem is formulated and the square of displacement resonant response in frequency domain at the specified point is considered as the objective function. Two sensitivity analysis methods are investigated and discussed. The derivative of modal damp ratio is not considered in the conventional sensitivity analysis method. An improved sensitivity analysis method considering the derivative of modal damp ratio is developed to improve the computational accuracy of the sensitivity. The evolutionary structural optimization (ESO method is used to search the optimal layout of CLD material on plates. Numerical examples and experimental results show that the optimal layout of CLD treatment on the plate from the proposed topology optimization using the conventional sensitivity analysis or the improved sensitivity analysis can reduce the displacement resonant response. However, the optimization method using the improved sensitivity analysis can produce a higher modal damping ratio than that using the conventional sensitivity analysis and develop a smaller displacement resonant response.

  13. Systemization of burnup sensitivity analysis code (2) (Contract research)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tatsumi, Masahiro; Hyoudou, Hideaki

    2008-08-01

    Towards the practical use of fast reactors, it is a very important subject to improve prediction accuracy for neutronic properties in LMFBR cores from the viewpoint of improvements on plant economic efficiency with rationally high performance cores and that on reliability and safety margins. A distinct improvement on accuracy in nuclear core design has been accomplished by the development of adjusted nuclear library using the cross-section adjustment method, in which the results of critical experiments of JUPITER and so on are reflected. In the design of large LMFBR cores, however, it is important to accurately estimate not only neutronic characteristics, for example, reaction rate distribution and control rod worth but also burnup characteristics, for example, burnup reactivity loss, breeding ratio and so on. For this purpose, it is desired to improve prediction accuracy of burnup characteristics using the data widely obtained in actual core such as the experimental fast reactor 'JOYO'. The analysis of burnup characteristic is needed to effectively use burnup characteristics data in the actual cores based on the cross-section adjustment method. So far, a burnup sensitivity analysis code, SAGEP-BURN, has been developed and confirmed its effectiveness. However, there is a problem that analysis sequence become inefficient because of a big burden to users due to complexity of the theory of burnup sensitivity and limitation of the system. It is also desired to rearrange the system for future revision since it is becoming difficult to implement new functions in the existing large system. It is not sufficient to unify each computational component for the following reasons: the computational sequence may be changed for each item being analyzed or for purpose such as interpretation of physical meaning. Therefore, it is needed to systemize the current code for burnup sensitivity analysis with component blocks of functionality that can be divided or constructed on occasion

  14. [Sensitivity analysis of AnnAGNPS model's hydrology and water quality parameters based on the perturbation analysis method].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xi, Qing; Li, Zhao-Fu; Luo, Chuan

    2014-05-01

    Sensitivity analysis of hydrology and water quality parameters has a great significance for integrated model's construction and application. Based on AnnAGNPS model's mechanism, terrain, hydrology and meteorology, field management, soil and other four major categories of 31 parameters were selected for the sensitivity analysis in Zhongtian river watershed which is a typical small watershed of hilly region in the Taihu Lake, and then used the perturbation method to evaluate the sensitivity of the parameters to the model's simulation results. The results showed that: in the 11 terrain parameters, LS was sensitive to all the model results, RMN, RS and RVC were generally sensitive and less sensitive to the output of sediment but insensitive to the remaining results. For hydrometeorological parameters, CN was more sensitive to runoff and sediment and relatively sensitive for the rest results. In field management, fertilizer and vegetation parameters, CCC, CRM and RR were less sensitive to sediment and particulate pollutants, the six fertilizer parameters (FR, FD, FID, FOD, FIP, FOP) were particularly sensitive for nitrogen and phosphorus nutrients. For soil parameters, K is quite sensitive to all the results except the runoff, the four parameters of the soil's nitrogen and phosphorus ratio (SONR, SINR, SOPR, SIPR) were less sensitive to the corresponding results. The simulation and verification results of runoff in Zhongtian watershed show a good accuracy with the deviation less than 10% during 2005- 2010. Research results have a direct reference value on AnnAGNPS model's parameter selection and calibration adjustment. The runoff simulation results of the study area also proved that the sensitivity analysis was practicable to the parameter's adjustment and showed the adaptability to the hydrology simulation in the Taihu Lake basin's hilly region and provide reference for the model's promotion in China.

  15. Mapping the diatom redox-sensitive proteome provides insight into response to nitrogen stress in the marine environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenwasser, Shilo; Graff van Creveld, Shiri; Schatz, Daniella; Malitsky, Sergey; Tzfadia, Oren; Aharoni, Asaph; Levin, Yishai; Gabashvili, Alexandra; Feldmesser, Ester; Vardi, Assaf

    2014-02-18

    Diatoms are ubiquitous marine photosynthetic eukaryotes responsible for approximately 20% of global photosynthesis. Little is known about the redox-based mechanisms that mediate diatom sensing and acclimation to environmental stress. Here we used a quantitative mass spectrometry-based approach to elucidate the redox-sensitive signaling network (redoxome) mediating the response of diatoms to oxidative stress. We quantified the degree of oxidation of 3,845 cysteines in the Phaeodactylum tricornutum proteome and identified approximately 300 redox-sensitive proteins. Intriguingly, we found redox-sensitive thiols in numerous enzymes composing the nitrogen assimilation pathway and the recently discovered diatom urea cycle. In agreement with this finding, the flux from nitrate into glutamine and glutamate, measured by the incorporation of (15)N, was strongly inhibited under oxidative stress conditions. Furthermore, by targeting the redox-sensitive GFP sensor to various subcellular localizations, we mapped organelle-specific oxidation patterns in response to variations in nitrogen quota and quality. We propose that redox regulation of nitrogen metabolism allows rapid metabolic plasticity to ensure cellular homeostasis, and thus is essential for the ecological success of diatoms in the marine ecosystem.

  16. Detailed oil spill contingency analysis in establishment of preparedness plans for exploration drilling in environmentally sensitive areas: an integrated management process

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Spikkerud, Cathrine S.; Skeie, Geir Morten; Brude, Odd Willy; Gravir, Gjermund [DNV Managing Risk, Oslo (Norway)

    2008-07-01

    This paper describes the integrated management process leading up to a dynamic oil spill preparedness plan based on detailed analysis of oil spill contingency requirements and environmental risk in environmentally sensitive areas. Starting with a detailed environmental risk and oil spill contingency analysis, oil spill preparedness plans are developed. These plans are generic for the area possibly affected by an oil spill, and are developed in detail for environmental 'hot spots' that are highly challenging in terms of oil spill response. The detailed plans make use of detailed data sets on shoreline substrate sensitivities and cleanup methodology, photographic inventory, logistical issues and access to real-time incident data for important areas. This detailed approach ensures sufficient knowledge about the sensitive area in advance to provide fast and correct strategic and tactical operational recovery decisions. A final element of the integrated process is a web based GIS, providing all parties involved with one common situation overview, ensuring that the facts remain in focus throughout the operation and that those responsible for informing stake-holders have access to correct and timely updated information. (author)

  17. Sensitivity of precipitation to parameter values in the community atmosphere model version 5

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johannesson, Gardar; Lucas, Donald; Qian, Yun; Swiler, Laura Painton; Wildey, Timothy Michael

    2014-03-01

    One objective of the Climate Science for a Sustainable Energy Future (CSSEF) program is to develop the capability to thoroughly test and understand the uncertainties in the overall climate model and its components as they are being developed. The focus on uncertainties involves sensitivity analysis: the capability to determine which input parameters have a major influence on the output responses of interest. This report presents some initial sensitivity analysis results performed by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LNNL), Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). In the 2011-2012 timeframe, these laboratories worked in collaboration to perform sensitivity analyses of a set of CAM5, 2° runs, where the response metrics of interest were precipitation metrics. The three labs performed their sensitivity analysis (SA) studies separately and then compared results. Overall, the results were quite consistent with each other although the methods used were different. This exercise provided a robustness check of the global sensitivity analysis metrics and identified some strongly influential parameters.

  18. SCALE Sensitivity Calculations Using Contributon Theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rearden, Bradley T.; Perfetti, Chris; Williams, Mark L.; Petrie, Lester M. Jr.

    2010-01-01

    The SCALE TSUNAMI-3D sensitivity and uncertainty analysis sequence computes the sensitivity of k-eff to each constituent multigroup cross section using adjoint techniques with the KENO Monte Carlo codes. A new technique to simultaneously obtain the product of the forward and adjoint angular flux moments within a single Monte Carlo calculation has been developed and implemented in the SCALE TSUNAMI-3D analysis sequence. A new concept in Monte Carlo theory has been developed for this work, an eigenvalue contributon estimator, which is an extension of previously developed fixed-source contributon estimators. A contributon is a particle for which the forward solution is accumulated, and its importance to the response, which is equivalent to the adjoint solution, is simultaneously accumulated. Thus, the contributon is a particle coupled with its contribution to the response, in this case k-eff. As implemented in SCALE, the contributon provides the importance of a particle exiting at any energy or direction for each location, energy and direction at which the forward flux solution is sampled. Although currently implemented for eigenvalue calculations in multigroup mode in KENO, this technique is directly applicable to continuous-energy calculations for many other responses such as fixed-source sensitivity analysis and quantification of reactor kinetics parameters. This paper provides the physical bases of eigenvalue contributon theory, provides details of implementation into TSUNAMI-3D, and provides results of sample calculations.

  19. Deterministic methods for sensitivity and uncertainty analysis in large-scale computer models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Worley, B.A.; Oblow, E.M.; Pin, F.G.; Maerker, R.E.; Horwedel, J.E.; Wright, R.Q.; Lucius, J.L.

    1987-01-01

    The fields of sensitivity and uncertainty analysis are dominated by statistical techniques when large-scale modeling codes are being analyzed. This paper reports on the development and availability of two systems, GRESS and ADGEN, that make use of computer calculus compilers to automate the implementation of deterministic sensitivity analysis capability into existing computer models. This automation removes the traditional limitation of deterministic sensitivity methods. The paper describes a deterministic uncertainty analysis method (DUA) that uses derivative information as a basis to propagate parameter probability distributions to obtain result probability distributions. The paper demonstrates the deterministic approach to sensitivity and uncertainty analysis as applied to a sample problem that models the flow of water through a borehole. The sample problem is used as a basis to compare the cumulative distribution function of the flow rate as calculated by the standard statistical methods and the DUA method. The DUA method gives a more accurate result based upon only two model executions compared to fifty executions in the statistical case

  20. Application of sensitivity analysis to a simplified coupled neutronic thermal-hydraulics transient in a fast reactor using Adjoint techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gilli, L.; Lathouwers, D.; Kloosterman, J.L.; Van der Hagen, T.H.J.J.

    2011-01-01

    In this paper a method to perform sensitivity analysis for a simplified multi-physics problem is presented. The method is based on the Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Procedure which is used to apply first order perturbation theory to linear and nonlinear problems using adjoint techniques. The multi-physics problem considered includes a neutronic, a thermo-kinetics, and a thermal-hydraulics part and it is used to model the time dependent behavior of a sodium cooled fast reactor. The adjoint procedure is applied to calculate the sensitivity coefficients with respect to the kinetic parameters of the problem for two reference transients using two different model responses, the results obtained are then compared with the values given by a direct sampling of the forward nonlinear problem. Our first results show that, thanks to modern numerical techniques, the procedure is relatively easy to implement and provides good estimation for most perturbations, making the method appealing for more detailed problems. (author)

  1. Inhibition of iron uptake is responsible for differential sensitivity to V-ATPase inhibitors in several cancer cell lines.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarah Straud

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Many cell lines derived from tumors as well as transformed cell lines are far more sensitive to V-ATPase inhibitors than normal counterparts. The molecular mechanisms underlying these differences in sensitivity are not known. Using global gene expression data, we show that the most sensitive responses to HeLa cells to low doses of V-ATPase inhibitors involve genes responsive to decreasing intracellular iron or decreasing cholesterol and that sensitivity to iron uptake is an important determinant of V-ATPase sensitivity in several cancer cell lines. One of the most sensitive cell lines, melanoma derived SK-Mel-5, over-expresses the iron efflux transporter ferroportin and has decreased expression of proteins involved in iron uptake, suggesting that it actively suppresses cytoplasmic iron. SK-Mel-5 cells have increased production of reactive oxygen species and may be seeking to limit additional production of ROS by iron.

  2. Automated differentiation of computer models for sensitivity analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Worley, B.A.

    1990-01-01

    Sensitivity analysis of reactor physics computer models is an established discipline after more than twenty years of active development of generalized perturbations theory based on direct and adjoint methods. Many reactor physics models have been enhanced to solve for sensitivities of model results to model data. The calculated sensitivities are usually normalized first derivatives although some codes are capable of solving for higher-order sensitivities. The purpose of this paper is to report on the development and application of the GRESS system for automating the implementation of the direct and adjoint techniques into existing FORTRAN computer codes. The GRESS system was developed at ORNL to eliminate the costly man-power intensive effort required to implement the direct and adjoint techniques into already-existing FORTRAN codes. GRESS has been successfully tested for a number of codes over a wide range of applications and presently operates on VAX machines under both VMS and UNIX operating systems

  3. Automated differentiation of computer models for sensitivity analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Worley, B.A.

    1991-01-01

    Sensitivity analysis of reactor physics computer models is an established discipline after more than twenty years of active development of generalized perturbations theory based on direct and adjoint methods. Many reactor physics models have been enhanced to solve for sensitivities of model results to model data. The calculated sensitivities are usually normalized first derivatives, although some codes are capable of solving for higher-order sensitivities. The purpose of this paper is to report on the development and application of the GRESS system for automating the implementation of the direct and adjoint techniques into existing FORTRAN computer codes. The GRESS system was developed at ORNL to eliminate the costly man-power intensive effort required to implement the direct and adjoint techniques into already-existing FORTRAN codes. GRESS has been successfully tested for a number of codes over a wide range of applications and presently operates on VAX machines under both VMS and UNIX operating systems. (author). 9 refs, 1 tab

  4. Human umbilical vein: involvement of cyclooxygenase-2 pathway in bradykinin B1 receptor-sensitized responses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Errasti, A E; Rey-Ares, V; Daray, F M; Rogines-Velo, M P; Sardi, S P; Paz, C; Podestá, E J; Rothlin, R P

    2001-08-01

    In isolated human umbilical vein (HUV), the contractile response to des-Arg9-bradykinin (des-Arg9-BK), selective BK B1 receptor agonist, increases as a function of the incubation time. Here, we evaluated whether cyclooxygenase (COX) pathway is involved in BK B1-sensitized response obtained in 5-h incubated HUV rings. The effect of different concentrations of indomethacin, sodium salicylate, ibuprofen, meloxicam, lysine clonixinate or NS-398 administrated 30 min before concentration-response curves (CRC) was studied. All treatments produced a significant rightward shift of the CRC to des-Arg9-BK in a concentration-dependent manner, which provides pharmacological evidence that COX pathway is involved in the BK B1 responses. Moreover, in this tissue, the NS-398 pKb (5.2) observed suggests that COX-2 pathway is the most relevant. The strong correlation between published pIC50 for COX-2 and the NSAIDs' pKbs estimated further supports the hypothesis that COX-2 metabolites are involved in BK B1 receptor-mediated responses. In other rings, indomethacin (30, 100 micromol/l) or NS-398 (10, 30 micromol/l) produced a significant rightward shift of the CRC to BK, selective BK B2 agonist, and its pKbs were similar to the values to inhibit BK B1 receptor responses, suggesting that COX-2 pathway also is involved in BK B2 receptor responses. Western blot analysis shows that COX-1 and COX-2 isoenzymes are present before and after 5-h in vitro incubation and apparently COX-2 does not suffer additional induction.

  5. Sensitivity analysis in Gaussian Bayesian networks using a symbolic-numerical technique

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Castillo, Enrique; Kjaerulff, Uffe

    2003-01-01

    The paper discusses the problem of sensitivity analysis in Gaussian Bayesian networks. The algebraic structure of the conditional means and variances, as rational functions involving linear and quadratic functions of the parameters, are used to simplify the sensitivity analysis. In particular the probabilities of conditional variables exceeding given values and related probabilities are analyzed. Two examples of application are used to illustrate all the concepts and methods

  6. Deterministic Local Sensitivity Analysis of Augmented Systems - I: Theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cacuci, Dan G.; Ionescu-Bujor, Mihaela

    2005-01-01

    This work provides the theoretical foundation for the modular implementation of the Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Procedure (ASAP) for large-scale simulation systems. The implementation of the ASAP commences with a selected code module and then proceeds by augmenting the size of the adjoint sensitivity system, module by module, until the entire system is completed. Notably, the adjoint sensitivity system for the augmented system can often be solved by using the same numerical methods used for solving the original, nonaugmented adjoint system, particularly when the matrix representation of the adjoint operator for the augmented system can be inverted by partitioning

  7. First order sensitivity analysis of flexible multibody systems using absolute nodal coordinate formulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pi Ting; Zhang Yunqing; Chen Liping

    2012-01-01

    Design sensitivity analysis of flexible multibody systems is important in optimizing the performance of mechanical systems. The choice of coordinates to describe the motion of multibody systems has a great influence on the efficiency and accuracy of both the dynamic and sensitivity analysis. In the flexible multibody system dynamics, both the floating frame of reference formulation (FFRF) and absolute nodal coordinate formulation (ANCF) are frequently utilized to describe flexibility, however, only the former has been used in design sensitivity analysis. In this article, ANCF, which has been recently developed and focuses on modeling of beams and plates in large deformation problems, is extended into design sensitivity analysis of flexible multibody systems. The Motion equations of a constrained flexible multibody system are expressed as a set of index-3 differential algebraic equations (DAEs), in which the element elastic forces are defined using nonlinear strain-displacement relations. Both the direct differentiation method and adjoint variable method are performed to do sensitivity analysis and the related dynamic and sensitivity equations are integrated with HHT-I3 algorithm. In this paper, a new method to deduce system sensitivity equations is proposed. With this approach, the system sensitivity equations are constructed by assembling the element sensitivity equations with the help of invariant matrices, which results in the advantage that the complex symbolic differentiation of the dynamic equations is avoided when the flexible multibody system model is changed. Besides that, the dynamic and sensitivity equations formed with the proposed method can be efficiently integrated using HHT-I3 method, which makes the efficiency of the direct differentiation method comparable to that of the adjoint variable method when the number of design variables is not extremely large. All these improvements greatly enhance the application value of the direct differentiation

  8. Parametric uncertainty and global sensitivity analysis in a model of the carotid bifurcation: Identification and ranking of most sensitive model parameters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gul, R; Bernhard, S

    2015-11-01

    In computational cardiovascular models, parameters are one of major sources of uncertainty, which make the models unreliable and less predictive. In order to achieve predictive models that allow the investigation of the cardiovascular diseases, sensitivity analysis (SA) can be used to quantify and reduce the uncertainty in outputs (pressure and flow) caused by input (electrical and structural) model parameters. In the current study, three variance based global sensitivity analysis (GSA) methods; Sobol, FAST and a sparse grid stochastic collocation technique based on the Smolyak algorithm were applied on a lumped parameter model of carotid bifurcation. Sensitivity analysis was carried out to identify and rank most sensitive parameters as well as to fix less sensitive parameters at their nominal values (factor fixing). In this context, network location and temporal dependent sensitivities were also discussed to identify optimal measurement locations in carotid bifurcation and optimal temporal regions for each parameter in the pressure and flow waves, respectively. Results show that, for both pressure and flow, flow resistance (R), diameter (d) and length of the vessel (l) are sensitive within right common carotid (RCC), right internal carotid (RIC) and right external carotid (REC) arteries, while compliance of the vessels (C) and blood inertia (L) are sensitive only at RCC. Moreover, Young's modulus (E) and wall thickness (h) exhibit less sensitivities on pressure and flow at all locations of carotid bifurcation. Results of network location and temporal variabilities revealed that most of sensitivity was found in common time regions i.e. early systole, peak systole and end systole. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Nuclear data sensitivity/uncertainty analysis for XT-ADS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sugawara, Takanori; Sarotto, Massimo; Stankovskiy, Alexey; Van den Eynde, Gert

    2011-01-01

    Highlights: → The sensitivity and uncertainty analyses were performed to comprehend the reliability of the XT-ADS neutronic design. → The uncertainties deduced from the covariance data for the XT-ADS criticality were 0.94%, 1.9% and 1.1% by the SCALE 44-group, TENDL-2009 and JENDL-3.3 data, respectively. → When the target accuracy of 0.3%Δk for the criticality was considered, the uncertainties did not satisfy it. → To achieve this accuracy, the uncertainties should be improved by experiments under an adequate condition. - Abstract: The XT-ADS, an accelerator-driven system for an experimental demonstration, has been investigated in the framework of IP EUROTRANS FP6 project. In this study, the sensitivity and uncertainty analyses were performed to comprehend the reliability of the XT-ADS neutronic design. For the sensitivity analysis, it was found that the sensitivity coefficients were significantly different by changing the geometry models and calculation codes. For the uncertainty analysis, it was confirmed that the uncertainties deduced from the covariance data varied significantly by changing them. The uncertainties deduced from the covariance data for the XT-ADS criticality were 0.94%, 1.9% and 1.1% by the SCALE 44-group, TENDL-2009 and JENDL-3.3 data, respectively. When the target accuracy of 0.3%Δk for the criticality was considered, the uncertainties did not satisfy it. To achieve this accuracy, the uncertainties should be improved by experiments under an adequate condition.

  10. Neutron sensitivity of prompt-response self-powered neutron detectors and the interval rule

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Molina Avila, J.; Carmolopes, M.

    1989-01-01

    This paper is devoted to the calculation of thermal s th and epithermal s epi sensitivities of cobalt prompt-response Self-Powered Neutron Detectors (SPNDs). The thermal sensitivity was obtained for a Maxwellian neutron field, and the effect of scattering on the self-shielding correction was taken into consideration in the second-collision approximation. The dependence of s th on the emitter radius R was studied in a wide region of R (0.025 to 0.2 cm). The differential and global epithermal sensitivities were calculated using a simple expression for the first-collision neutron absorption probability. Finally, a criterion to evaluate the accuracy of the parameters of the model was established in the form of some Interval Rule which is very sensitive to the radial dependence of the flux perturbation correction and other parameters of the model in both the thermal and epithermal regions

  11. Transcriptional responses of the nerve agent-sensitive brain regions amygdala, hippocampus, piriform cortex, septum, and thalamus following exposure to the organophosphonate anticholinesterase sarin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meyerhoff James L

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Although the acute toxicity of organophosphorus nerve agents is known to result from acetylcholinesterase inhibition, the molecular mechanisms involved in the development of neuropathology following nerve agent-induced seizure are not well understood. To help determine these pathways, we previously used microarray analysis to identify gene expression changes in the rat piriform cortex, a region of the rat brain sensitive to nerve agent exposure, over a 24-h time period following sarin-induced seizure. We found significant differences in gene expression profiles and identified secondary responses that potentially lead to brain injury and cell death. To advance our understanding of the molecular mechanisms involved in sarin-induced toxicity, we analyzed gene expression changes in four other areas of the rat brain known to be affected by nerve agent-induced seizure (amygdala, hippocampus, septum, and thalamus. Methods We compared the transcriptional response of these four brain regions to sarin-induced seizure with the response previously characterized in the piriform cortex. In this study, rats were challenged with 1.0 × LD50 sarin and subsequently treated with atropine sulfate, 2-pyridine aldoxime methylchloride, and diazepam. The four brain regions were collected at 0.25, 1, 3, 6, and 24 h after seizure onset, and total RNA was processed for microarray analysis. Results Principal component analysis identified brain region and time following seizure onset as major sources of variability within the dataset. Analysis of variance identified genes significantly changed following sarin-induced seizure, and gene ontology analysis identified biological pathways, functions, and networks of genes significantly affected by sarin-induced seizure over the 24-h time course. Many of the molecular functions and pathways identified as being most significant across all of the brain regions were indicative of an inflammatory response. There

  12. A new sensitivity analysis for structural optimization of composite rotor blades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Venkatesan, C.; Friedmann, P. P.; Yuan, Kuo-An

    1993-01-01

    This paper presents a detailed mathematical derivation of the sensitivity derivatives for the structural dynamic, aeroelastic stability and response characteristics of a rotor blade in hover and forward flight. The formulation is denoted by the term semianalytical approach, because certain derivatives have to be evaluated by a finite difference scheme. Using the present formulation, sensitivity derivatives for the structural dynamic and aeroelastic stability characteristics, were evaluated for both isotropic and composite rotor blades. Based on the results, useful conclusions are obtained regarding the relative merits of the semi-analytical approach, for calculating sensitivity derivatives, when compared to a pure finite difference approach.

  13. Methodology to carry out a sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for cross sections using a coupled model Trace-Parcs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reyes F, M. C.; Del Valle G, E.; Gomez T, A. M.; Sanchez E, V.

    2015-09-01

    A methodology was implemented to carry out a sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for cross sections used in a coupled model for Trace/Parcs in a transient of control rod fall of a BWR-5. A model of the reactor core for the neutronic code Parcs was used, in which the assemblies located in the core are described. Thermo-hydraulic model in Trace was a simple model, where only a component type Chan was designed to represent all the core assemblies, which it was within a single vessel and boundary conditions were established. The thermo-hydraulic part was coupled with the neutron part, first for the steady state and then a transient of control rod fall was carried out for the sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. To carry out the analysis of cross sections used in the coupled model Trace/Parcs during the transient, the Probability Density Functions for 22 parameters selected from the total of neutronic parameters that use Parcs were generated, obtaining 100 different cases for the coupled model Trace/Parcs, each one with a database of different cross sections. All these cases were executed with the coupled model, obtaining in consequence 100 different output files for the transient of control rod fall doing emphasis in the nominal power, for which an uncertainty analysis was realized at the same time generate the band of uncertainty. With this analysis is possible to observe the ranges of results of the elected responses varying the selected uncertainty parameters. The sensitivity analysis complements the uncertainty analysis, identifying the parameter or parameters with more influence on the results and thus focuses on these parameters in order to better understand their effects. Beyond the obtained results, because is not a model with real operation data, the importance of this work is to know the application of the methodology to carry out the sensitivity and uncertainty analyses. (Author)

  14. Sensitivity Analysis of FEAST-Metal Fuel Performance Code: Initial Results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Edelmann, Paul Guy; Williams, Brian J.; Unal, Cetin; Yacout, Abdellatif

    2012-01-01

    This memo documents the completion of the LANL milestone, M3FT-12LA0202041, describing methodologies and initial results using FEAST-Metal. The FEAST-Metal code calculations for this work are being conducted at LANL in support of on-going activities related to sensitivity analysis of fuel performance codes. The objective is to identify important macroscopic parameters of interest to modeling and simulation of metallic fuel performance. This report summarizes our preliminary results for the sensitivity analysis using 6 calibration datasets for metallic fuel developed at ANL for EBR-II experiments. Sensitivity ranking methodology was deployed to narrow down the selected parameters for the current study. There are approximately 84 calibration parameters in the FEAST-Metal code, of which 32 were ultimately used in Phase II of this study. Preliminary results of this sensitivity analysis led to the following ranking of FEAST models for future calibration and improvements: fuel conductivity, fission gas transport/release, fuel creep, and precipitation kinetics. More validation data is needed to validate calibrated parameter distributions for future uncertainty quantification studies with FEAST-Metal. Results of this study also served to point out some code deficiencies and possible errors, and these are being investigated in order to determine root causes and to improve upon the existing code models.

  15. Systems analysis of apoptotic priming in ovarian cancer identifies vulnerabilities and predictors of drug response.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zervantonakis, Ioannis K; Iavarone, Claudia; Chen, Hsing-Yu; Selfors, Laura M; Palakurthi, Sangeetha; Liu, Joyce F; Drapkin, Ronny; Matulonis, Ursula; Leverson, Joel D; Sampath, Deepak; Mills, Gordon B; Brugge, Joan S

    2017-08-28

    The lack of effective chemotherapies for high-grade serous ovarian cancers (HGS-OvCa) has motivated a search for alternative treatment strategies. Here, we present an unbiased systems-approach to interrogate a panel of 14 well-annotated HGS-OvCa patient-derived xenografts for sensitivity to PI3K and PI3K/mTOR inhibitors and uncover cell death vulnerabilities. Proteomic analysis reveals that PI3K/mTOR inhibition in HGS-OvCa patient-derived xenografts induces both pro-apoptotic and anti-apoptotic signaling responses that limit cell killing, but also primes cells for inhibitors of anti-apoptotic proteins. In-depth quantitative analysis of BCL-2 family proteins and other apoptotic regulators, together with computational modeling and selective anti-apoptotic protein inhibitors, uncovers new mechanistic details about apoptotic regulators that are predictive of drug sensitivity (BIM, caspase-3, BCL-X L ) and resistance (MCL-1, XIAP). Our systems-approach presents a strategy for systematic analysis of the mechanisms that limit effective tumor cell killing and the identification of apoptotic vulnerabilities to overcome drug resistance in ovarian and other cancers.High-grade serous ovarian cancers (HGS-OvCa) frequently develop chemotherapy resistance. Here, the authors through a systematic analysis of proteomic and drug response data of 14 HGS-OvCa PDXs demonstrate that targeting apoptosis regulators can improve response of these tumors to inhibitors of the PI3K/mTOR pathway.

  16. A survey of cross-section sensitivity analysis as applied to radiation shielding

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goldstein, H.

    1977-01-01

    Cross section sensitivity studies revolve around finding the change in the value of an integral quantity, e.g. transmitted dose, for a given change in one of the cross sections. A review is given of the principal methodologies for obtaining the sensitivity profiles-principally direct calculations with altered cross sections, and linear perturbation theory. Some of the varied applications of cross section sensitivity analysis are described, including the practice, of questionable value, of adjusting input cross section data sets so as to provide agreement with integral experiments. Finally, a plea is made for using cross section sensitivity analysis as a powerful tool for analysing the transport mechanisms of particles in radiation shields and for constructing models of how cross section phenomena affect the transport. Cross section sensitivities in the shielding area have proved to be highly problem-dependent. Without the understanding afforded by such models, it is impossible to extrapolate the conclusions of cross section sensitivity analysis beyond the narrow limits of the specific situations examined in detail. Some of the elements that might be of use in developing the qualitative models are presented. (orig.) [de

  17. Parametric sensitivity analysis for techno-economic parameters in Indian power sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mallah, Subhash; Bansal, N.K.

    2011-01-01

    Sensitivity analysis is a technique that evaluates the model response to changes in input assumptions. Due to uncertain prices of primary fuels in the world market, Government regulations for sustainability and various other technical parameters there is a need to analyze the techno-economic parameters which play an important role in policy formulations. This paper examines the variations in technical as well as economic parameters that can mostly affect the energy policy of India. MARKAL energy simulation model has been used to analyze the uncertainty in all techno-economic parameters. Various ranges of input parameters are adopted from previous studies. The results show that at lower discount rate coal is the least preferred technology and correspondingly carbon emission reduction. With increased gas and nuclear fuel prices they disappear from the allocations of energy mix.

  18. A framework for sensitivity analysis of decision trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamiński, Bogumił; Jakubczyk, Michał; Szufel, Przemysław

    2018-01-01

    In the paper, we consider sequential decision problems with uncertainty, represented as decision trees. Sensitivity analysis is always a crucial element of decision making and in decision trees it often focuses on probabilities. In the stochastic model considered, the user often has only limited information about the true values of probabilities. We develop a framework for performing sensitivity analysis of optimal strategies accounting for this distributional uncertainty. We design this robust optimization approach in an intuitive and not overly technical way, to make it simple to apply in daily managerial practice. The proposed framework allows for (1) analysis of the stability of the expected-value-maximizing strategy and (2) identification of strategies which are robust with respect to pessimistic/optimistic/mode-favoring perturbations of probabilities. We verify the properties of our approach in two cases: (a) probabilities in a tree are the primitives of the model and can be modified independently; (b) probabilities in a tree reflect some underlying, structural probabilities, and are interrelated. We provide a free software tool implementing the methods described.

  19. Analytical sensitivity analysis of geometric errors in a three axis machine tool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Sung Ryung; Yang, Seung Han

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, an analytical method is used to perform a sensitivity analysis of geometric errors in a three axis machine tool. First, an error synthesis model is constructed for evaluating the position volumetric error due to the geometric errors, and then an output variable is defined, such as the magnitude of the position volumetric error. Next, the global sensitivity analysis is executed using an analytical method. Finally, the sensitivity indices are calculated using the quantitative values of the geometric errors

  20. Automated sensitivity analysis: New tools for modeling complex dynamic systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pin, F.G.

    1987-01-01

    Sensitivity analysis is an established methodology used by researchers in almost every field to gain essential insight in design and modeling studies and in performance assessments of complex systems. Conventional sensitivity analysis methodologies, however, have not enjoyed the widespread use they deserve considering the wealth of information they can provide, partly because of their prohibitive cost or the large initial analytical investment they require. Automated systems have recently been developed at ORNL to eliminate these drawbacks. Compilers such as GRESS and EXAP now allow automatic and cost effective calculation of sensitivities in FORTRAN computer codes. In this paper, these and other related tools are described and their impact and applicability in the general areas of modeling, performance assessment and decision making for radioactive waste isolation problems are discussed

  1. Pregabalin versus gabapentin in partial epilepsy: a meta-analysis of dose-response relationships

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thompson Sally

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background To compare the efficacy of pregabalin and gabapentin at comparable effective dose levels in patients with refractory partial epilepsy. Methods Eight randomized placebo controlled trials investigating the efficacy of pregabalin (4 studies and gabapentin (4 studies over 12 weeks were identified with a systematic literature search. The endpoints of interest were "responder rate" (where response was defined as at least a 50% reduction from baseline in the number of seizures and "change from baseline in seizure-free days over the last 28 days (SFD". Results of all trials were analyzed using an indirect comparison approach with placebo as the common comparator. The base-case analysis used the intention-to-treat last observation carried forward method. Two sensitivity analyses were conducted among completer and responder populations. Results The base-case analysis revealed statistically significant differences in response rate in favor of pregabalin 300 mg versus gabapentin 1200 mg (odds ratio, 1.82; 95% confidence interval, 1.02, 3.25 and pregabalin 600 mg versus gabapentin 1800 mg (odds ratio, 2.52; 95% confidence interval, 1.21, 5.27. Both sensitivity analyses supported the findings of the base-case analysis, although statistical significance was not demonstrated. All dose levels of pregabalin (150 mg to 600 mg were more efficacious than corresponding dosages of gabapentin (900 mg to 2400 mg in terms of SFD over the last 28 days. Conclusion In patients with refractory partial epilepsy, pregabalin is likely to be more effective than gabapentin at comparable effective doses, based on clinical response and the number of SFD.

  2. Driving p53 Response to Bax Activation Greatly Enhances Sensitivity to Taxol by Inducing Massive Apoptosis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paola De Feudis

    2000-05-01

    Full Text Available The proapoptotic gene bax is one of the downstream effectors of p53. The p53 binding site in the bax promoter is less responsive to p53 than the one in the growth arrest mediating gene p21. We introduced the bax gene under the control of 13 copies of a strong p53 responsive element into two ovarian cancer cell lines. The clones expressing bax under the control of p53 obtained from the wild-type (wt p53-expressing cell line A2780 were much more sensitive (500- to 1000-fold to the anticancer agent taxol than the parent cell line, with a higher percentage of cells undergoing apoptosis after drug treatment that was clearly p53-dependent and bax-mediated. Xenografts established in nude mice from one selected clone (A2780/C3 were more responsive to taxol than the parental line and the apoptotic response of A2780/C3 tumors was also increased after treatment. Introduction of the same plasmid into the p53 null SKOV3 cell line did not alter the sensitivity to taxol or the induction of apoptosis. In conclusion, driving the p53 response (after taxol treatment by activating the bax gene rather than the p21 gene results in induction of massive apoptosis, in vitro and in vivo, and greatly enhances sensitivity to the drug.

  3. Automatic differentiation for design sensitivity analysis of structural systems using multiple processors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Duc T.; Storaasli, Olaf O.; Qin, Jiangning; Qamar, Ramzi

    1994-01-01

    An automatic differentiation tool (ADIFOR) is incorporated into a finite element based structural analysis program for shape and non-shape design sensitivity analysis of structural systems. The entire analysis and sensitivity procedures are parallelized and vectorized for high performance computation. Small scale examples to verify the accuracy of the proposed program and a medium scale example to demonstrate the parallel vector performance on multiple CRAY C90 processors are included.

  4. Goal-oriented sensitivity analysis for lattice kinetic Monte Carlo simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arampatzis, Georgios; Katsoulakis, Markos A.

    2014-01-01

    In this paper we propose a new class of coupling methods for the sensitivity analysis of high dimensional stochastic systems and in particular for lattice Kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC). Sensitivity analysis for stochastic systems is typically based on approximating continuous derivatives with respect to model parameters by the mean value of samples from a finite difference scheme. Instead of using independent samples the proposed algorithm reduces the variance of the estimator by developing a strongly correlated-“coupled”- stochastic process for both the perturbed and unperturbed stochastic processes, defined in a common state space. The novelty of our construction is that the new coupled process depends on the targeted observables, e.g., coverage, Hamiltonian, spatial correlations, surface roughness, etc., hence we refer to the proposed method as goal-oriented sensitivity analysis. In particular, the rates of the coupled Continuous Time Markov Chain are obtained as solutions to a goal-oriented optimization problem, depending on the observable of interest, by considering the minimization functional of the corresponding variance. We show that this functional can be used as a diagnostic tool for the design and evaluation of different classes of couplings. Furthermore, the resulting KMC sensitivity algorithm has an easy implementation that is based on the Bortz–Kalos–Lebowitz algorithm's philosophy, where events are divided in classes depending on level sets of the observable of interest. Finally, we demonstrate in several examples including adsorption, desorption, and diffusion Kinetic Monte Carlo that for the same confidence interval and observable, the proposed goal-oriented algorithm can be two orders of magnitude faster than existing coupling algorithms for spatial KMC such as the Common Random Number approach. We also provide a complete implementation of the proposed sensitivity analysis algorithms, including various spatial KMC examples, in a supplementary

  5. Goal-oriented sensitivity analysis for lattice kinetic Monte Carlo simulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arampatzis, Georgios; Katsoulakis, Markos A

    2014-03-28

    In this paper we propose a new class of coupling methods for the sensitivity analysis of high dimensional stochastic systems and in particular for lattice Kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC). Sensitivity analysis for stochastic systems is typically based on approximating continuous derivatives with respect to model parameters by the mean value of samples from a finite difference scheme. Instead of using independent samples the proposed algorithm reduces the variance of the estimator by developing a strongly correlated-"coupled"- stochastic process for both the perturbed and unperturbed stochastic processes, defined in a common state space. The novelty of our construction is that the new coupled process depends on the targeted observables, e.g., coverage, Hamiltonian, spatial correlations, surface roughness, etc., hence we refer to the proposed method as goal-oriented sensitivity analysis. In particular, the rates of the coupled Continuous Time Markov Chain are obtained as solutions to a goal-oriented optimization problem, depending on the observable of interest, by considering the minimization functional of the corresponding variance. We show that this functional can be used as a diagnostic tool for the design and evaluation of different classes of couplings. Furthermore, the resulting KMC sensitivity algorithm has an easy implementation that is based on the Bortz-Kalos-Lebowitz algorithm's philosophy, where events are divided in classes depending on level sets of the observable of interest. Finally, we demonstrate in several examples including adsorption, desorption, and diffusion Kinetic Monte Carlo that for the same confidence interval and observable, the proposed goal-oriented algorithm can be two orders of magnitude faster than existing coupling algorithms for spatial KMC such as the Common Random Number approach. We also provide a complete implementation of the proposed sensitivity analysis algorithms, including various spatial KMC examples, in a supplementary MATLAB

  6. Sensitivity of nuclear power plant structural response to aircraft impact

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buchhardt, F.; Magiera, G.; Matthees, W.; Weber, M.

    1984-01-01

    In this paper a sensitivity study for aircraft impact is performed concerning the excitation of internal components, with particular regard to nonlinear structural material behaviour in the impact area. The nonlinear material values are varied within the bandwidth of suitable material strength, depending on local stiffness pre-calculations. The analyses are then performed on a globally discretized three-dimensional finite element model of a nuclear power plant, using a relatively fine mesh. For specified nodal points results are evaluated by comparing their response spectra. (Author) [pt

  7. Global sensitivity analysis applied to drying models for one or a population of granules

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mortier, Severine Therese F. C.; Gernaey, Krist; Thomas, De Beer

    2014-01-01

    The development of mechanistic models for pharmaceutical processes is of increasing importance due to a noticeable shift toward continuous production in the industry. Sensitivity analysis is a powerful tool during the model building process. A global sensitivity analysis (GSA), exploring sensitiv......The development of mechanistic models for pharmaceutical processes is of increasing importance due to a noticeable shift toward continuous production in the industry. Sensitivity analysis is a powerful tool during the model building process. A global sensitivity analysis (GSA), exploring...... sensitivity in a broad parameter space, is performed to detect the most sensitive factors in two models, that is, one for drying of a single granule and one for the drying of a population of granules [using population balance model (PBM)], which was extended by including the gas velocity as extra input...... compared to our earlier work. beta(2) was found to be the most important factor for the single particle model which is useful information when performing model calibration. For the PBM-model, the granule radius and gas temperature were found to be most sensitive. The former indicates that granulator...

  8. Light Responsive Two-Component Supramolecular Hydrogel: A Sensitive Platform for Humidity Sensors

    KAUST Repository

    Samai, Suman

    2016-02-15

    The supramolecular assembly of anionic azobenzene dicarboxylate and cationic cetyltrimethylammonium bromide (CTAB) formed a stimuli responsive hydrogel with a critical gelation concentration (CGC) of 0.33 wt%. This self-sustainable two-component system was able to repair damage upon light irradiation. Moreover, it was successfully employed in the fabrication of highly sensitive humidity sensors for the first time.

  9. Light Responsive Two-Component Supramolecular Hydrogel: A Sensitive Platform for Humidity Sensors

    KAUST Repository

    Samai, Suman; Sapsanis, Christos; Patil, Sachin; Ezzeddine, Alaa; Moosa, Basem; Omran, Hesham; Emwas, Abdul-Hamid M.; Salama, Khaled N.; Khashab, Niveen M.

    2016-01-01

    The supramolecular assembly of anionic azobenzene dicarboxylate and cationic cetyltrimethylammonium bromide (CTAB) formed a stimuli responsive hydrogel with a critical gelation concentration (CGC) of 0.33 wt%. This self-sustainable two-component system was able to repair damage upon light irradiation. Moreover, it was successfully employed in the fabrication of highly sensitive humidity sensors for the first time.

  10. Comparison of global sensitivity analysis techniques and importance measures in PSA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Borgonovo, E.; Apostolakis, G.E.; Tarantola, S.; Saltelli, A.

    2003-01-01

    This paper discusses application and results of global sensitivity analysis techniques to probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) models, and their comparison to importance measures. This comparison allows one to understand whether PSA elements that are important to the risk, as revealed by importance measures, are also important contributors to the model uncertainty, as revealed by global sensitivity analysis. We show that, due to epistemic dependence, uncertainty and global sensitivity analysis of PSA models must be performed at the parameter level. A difficulty arises, since standard codes produce the calculations at the basic event level. We discuss both the indirect comparison through importance measures computed for basic events, and the direct comparison performed using the differential importance measure and the Fussell-Vesely importance at the parameter level. Results are discussed for the large LLOCA sequence of the advanced test reactor PSA

  11. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis of optimised preventive maintenance strategies for deteriorating infrastructure assets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Daneshkhah, A.; Stocks, N.G.; Jeffrey, P.

    2017-01-01

    Efficient life-cycle management of civil infrastructure systems under continuous deterioration can be improved by studying the sensitivity of optimised preventive maintenance decisions with respect to changes in model parameters. Sensitivity analysis in maintenance optimisation problems is important because if the calculation of the cost of preventive maintenance strategies is not sufficiently robust, the use of the maintenance model can generate optimised maintenances strategies that are not cost-effective. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis methods (particularly variance based ones), only partially respond to this issue and their use is limited to evaluating the extent to which uncertainty in each input contributes to the overall output's variance. These methods do not take account of the decision-making problem in a straightforward manner. To address this issue, we use the concept of the Expected Value of Perfect Information (EVPI) to perform decision-informed sensitivity analysis: to identify the key parameters of the problem and quantify the value of learning about certain aspects of the life-cycle management of civil infrastructure system. This approach allows us to quantify the benefits of the maintenance strategies in terms of expected costs and in the light of accumulated information about the model parameters and aspects of the system, such as the ageing process. We use a Gamma process model to represent the uncertainty associated with asset deterioration, illustrating the use of EVPI to perform sensitivity analysis on the optimisation problem for age-based and condition-based preventive maintenance strategies. The evaluation of EVPI indices is computationally demanding and Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques would not be helpful. To overcome this computational difficulty, we approximate the EVPI indices using Gaussian process emulators. The implications of the worked numerical examples discussed in the context of analytical efficiency and organisational

  12. Mechanisms of Heightened Airway Sensitivity and Responses to Inhaled SO2 in Asthmatics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reno, Anita L; Brooks, Edward G; Ameredes, Bill T

    2015-01-01

    Sulfur dioxide (SO2) is a problematic inhalable air pollutant in areas of widespread industrialization, not only in the United States but also in countries undergoing rapid industrialization, such as China, and it can be a potential trigger factor for asthma exacerbations. It is known that asthmatics are sensitive to the effects of SO2; however, the basis of this enhanced sensitivity remains incompletely understood. A PubMed search was performed over the course of 2014, encompassing the following terms: asthma, airway inflammation, sulfur dioxide, IL-10, mouse studies, and human studies. This search indicated that biomarkers of SO2 exposure, SO2 effects on airway epithelial cell function, and animal model data are useful in our understanding of the body's response to SO2, as are SO2-associated amplification of allergic inflammation, and potential promotion of neurogenic inflammation due to chemical irritant properties. While definitive answers are still being sought, these areas comprise important foci of consideration regarding asthmatic responses to inhaled SO2. Furthermore, IL-10 deficiency associated with asthma may be another important factor associated with an inability to resolve inflammation and mitigate oxidative stress resulting from SO2 inhalation, supporting the idea that asthmatics are predisposed to SO2 sensitivity, leading to asthma exacerbations and airway dysfunction.

  13. Multivariate sensitivity analysis to measure global contribution of input factors in dynamic models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lamboni, Matieyendou; Monod, Herve; Makowski, David

    2011-01-01

    Many dynamic models are used for risk assessment and decision support in ecology and crop science. Such models generate time-dependent model predictions, with time either discretised or continuous. Their global sensitivity analysis is usually applied separately on each time output, but Campbell et al. (2006 ) advocated global sensitivity analyses on the expansion of the dynamics in a well-chosen functional basis. This paper focuses on the particular case when principal components analysis is combined with analysis of variance. In addition to the indices associated with the principal components, generalised sensitivity indices are proposed to synthesize the influence of each parameter on the whole time series output. Index definitions are given when the uncertainty on the input factors is either discrete or continuous and when the dynamic model is either discrete or functional. A general estimation algorithm is proposed, based on classical methods of global sensitivity analysis. The method is applied to a dynamic wheat crop model with 13 uncertain parameters. Three methods of global sensitivity analysis are compared: the Sobol'-Saltelli method, the extended FAST method, and the fractional factorial design of resolution 6.

  14. Multivariate sensitivity analysis to measure global contribution of input factors in dynamic models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lamboni, Matieyendou [INRA, Unite MIA (UR341), F78352 Jouy en Josas Cedex (France); Monod, Herve, E-mail: herve.monod@jouy.inra.f [INRA, Unite MIA (UR341), F78352 Jouy en Josas Cedex (France); Makowski, David [INRA, UMR Agronomie INRA/AgroParisTech (UMR 211), BP 01, F78850 Thiverval-Grignon (France)

    2011-04-15

    Many dynamic models are used for risk assessment and decision support in ecology and crop science. Such models generate time-dependent model predictions, with time either discretised or continuous. Their global sensitivity analysis is usually applied separately on each time output, but Campbell et al. (2006) advocated global sensitivity analyses on the expansion of the dynamics in a well-chosen functional basis. This paper focuses on the particular case when principal components analysis is combined with analysis of variance. In addition to the indices associated with the principal components, generalised sensitivity indices are proposed to synthesize the influence of each parameter on the whole time series output. Index definitions are given when the uncertainty on the input factors is either discrete or continuous and when the dynamic model is either discrete or functional. A general estimation algorithm is proposed, based on classical methods of global sensitivity analysis. The method is applied to a dynamic wheat crop model with 13 uncertain parameters. Three methods of global sensitivity analysis are compared: the Sobol'-Saltelli method, the extended FAST method, and the fractional factorial design of resolution 6.

  15. Application of Sensitivity Analysis in Design of Sustainable Buildings

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heiselberg, Per; Brohus, Henrik; Rasmussen, Henrik

    2009-01-01

    satisfies the design objectives and criteria. In the design of sustainable buildings, it is beneficial to identify the most important design parameters in order to more efficiently develop alternative design solutions or reach optimized design solutions. Sensitivity analyses make it possible to identify...... possible to influence the most important design parameters. A methodology of sensitivity analysis is presented and an application example is given for design of an office building in Denmark....

  16. Sensitivity analysis of network DEA illustrated in branch banking

    OpenAIRE

    N. Avkiran

    2010-01-01

    Users of data envelopment analysis (DEA) often presume efficiency estimates to be robust. While traditional DEA has been exposed to various sensitivity studies, network DEA (NDEA) has so far escaped similar scrutiny. Thus, there is a need to investigate the sensitivity of NDEA, further compounded by the recent attention it has been receiving in literature. NDEA captures the underlying performance information found in a firm?s interacting divisions or sub-processes that would otherwise remain ...

  17. Response sensitivity of barrel neuron subpopulations to simulated thalamic input.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pesavento, Michael J; Rittenhouse, Cynthia D; Pinto, David J

    2010-06-01

    Our goal is to examine the relationship between neuron- and network-level processing in the context of a well-studied cortical function, the processing of thalamic input by whisker-barrel circuits in rodent neocortex. Here we focus on neuron-level processing and investigate the responses of excitatory and inhibitory barrel neurons to simulated thalamic inputs applied using the dynamic clamp method in brain slices. Simulated inputs are modeled after real thalamic inputs recorded in vivo in response to brief whisker deflections. Our results suggest that inhibitory neurons require more input to reach firing threshold, but then fire earlier, with less variability, and respond to a broader range of inputs than do excitatory neurons. Differences in the responses of barrel neuron subtypes depend on their intrinsic membrane properties. Neurons with a low input resistance require more input to reach threshold but then fire earlier than neurons with a higher input resistance, regardless of the neuron's classification. Our results also suggest that the response properties of excitatory versus inhibitory barrel neurons are consistent with the response sensitivities of the ensemble barrel network. The short response latency of inhibitory neurons may serve to suppress ensemble barrel responses to asynchronous thalamic input. Correspondingly, whereas neurons acting as part of the barrel circuit in vivo are highly selective for temporally correlated thalamic input, excitatory barrel neurons acting alone in vitro are less so. These data suggest that network-level processing of thalamic input in barrel cortex depends on neuron-level processing of the same input by excitatory and inhibitory barrel neurons.

  18. Sensitivity Analysis of Deviation Source for Fast Assembly Precision Optimization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianjun Tang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Assembly precision optimization of complex product has a huge benefit in improving the quality of our products. Due to the impact of a variety of deviation source coupling phenomena, the goal of assembly precision optimization is difficult to be confirmed accurately. In order to achieve optimization of assembly precision accurately and rapidly, sensitivity analysis of deviation source is proposed. First, deviation source sensitivity is defined as the ratio of assembly dimension variation and deviation source dimension variation. Second, according to assembly constraint relations, assembly sequences and locating, deviation transmission paths are established by locating the joints between the adjacent parts, and establishing each part’s datum reference frame. Third, assembly multidimensional vector loops are created using deviation transmission paths, and the corresponding scalar equations of each dimension are established. Then, assembly deviation source sensitivity is calculated by using a first-order Taylor expansion and matrix transformation method. Finally, taking assembly precision optimization of wing flap rocker as an example, the effectiveness and efficiency of the deviation source sensitivity analysis method are verified.

  19. Sensitivity Analysis of Structures by Virtual Distortion Method

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gierlinski, J.T.; Holnicki-Szulc, J.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    1991-01-01

    are used in structural optimization, see Haftka [4]. The recently developed Virtual Distortion Method (VDM) is a numerical technique which offers an efficient approach to calculation of the sensitivity derivatives. This method has been orginally applied to structural remodelling and collapse analysis, see...

  20. Application of Monte Carlo filtering method in regional sensitivity analysis of AASHTOWare Pavement ME design

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhong Wu

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Since AASHTO released the Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guide (MEPDG for public review in 2004, many highway research agencies have performed sensitivity analyses using the prototype MEPDG design software. The information provided by the sensitivity analysis is essential for design engineers to better understand the MEPDG design models and to identify important input parameters for pavement design. In literature, different studies have been carried out based on either local or global sensitivity analysis methods, and sensitivity indices have been proposed for ranking the importance of the input parameters. In this paper, a regional sensitivity analysis method, Monte Carlo filtering (MCF, is presented. The MCF method maintains many advantages of the global sensitivity analysis, while focusing on the regional sensitivity of the MEPDG model near the design criteria rather than the entire problem domain. It is shown that the information obtained from the MCF method is more helpful and accurate in guiding design engineers in pavement design practices. To demonstrate the proposed regional sensitivity method, a typical three-layer flexible pavement structure was analyzed at input level 3. A detailed procedure to generate Monte Carlo runs using the AASHTOWare Pavement ME Design software was provided. The results in the example show that the sensitivity ranking of the input parameters in this study reasonably matches with that in a previous study under a global sensitivity analysis. Based on the analysis results, the strengths, practical issues, and applications of the MCF method were further discussed.

  1. Rational Molecular Engineering of Indoline-Based D-A-π-A Organic Sensitizers for Long-Wavelength-Responsive Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Weiwei; Wu, Yongzhen; Zhu, Haibo; Chai, Qipeng; Liu, Jingchuan; Li, Hui; Song, Xiongrong; Zhu, Wei-Hong

    2015-12-09

    Indoline-based D-A-π-A organic sensitizers are promising candidates for highly efficient and long-term stable dye-sensitized solar cells (DSSCs). In order to further broaden the spectral response of the known indoline dye WS-2, we rationally engineer the molecular structure through enhancing the electron donor and extending the π-bridge, resulting in two novel indoline-based D-A-π-A organic sensitizers WS-92 and WS-95. By replacing the 4-methylphenyl group on the indoline donor of WS-2 with a more electron-rich carbazole unit, the intramolecular charge transfer (ICT) absorption band of dye WS-92 is slightly red-shifted from 550 nm (WS-2) to 554 nm (WS-92). In comparison, the incorporation of a larger π-bridge of cyclopentadithiophene (CPDT) unit in dye WS-95 not only greatly bathochromatically tunes the absorption band to 574 nm but also largely enhances the molar extinction coefficients (ε), thus dramatically improving the light-harvesting capability. Under the standard global AM 1.5 solar light condition, the photovoltaic performances of both organic dyes have been evaluated in DSSCs on the basis of the iodide/triiodide electrolyte without any coadsorbent or cosensitizer. The DSSCs based on WS-95 display better device performance with power conversion efficiency (η) of 7.69%. The additional coadsorbent in the dye bath of WS-95 does not improve the photovoltaic performance, indicative of its negligible dye aggregation, which can be rationalized by the grafted dioctyl chains on the CPDT unit. The cosensitization of WS-95 with a short absorption wavelength dye S2 enhances the IPCE and improves the η to 9.18%. Our results indicate that extending the π-spacer is more rational than enhancing the electron donor in terms of broadening the spectral response of indoline-based D-A-π-A organic sensitizers.

  2. Transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS): compared sensitivity of different motor response parameters in ALS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pouget, J; Trefouret, S; Attarian, S

    2000-06-01

    Owing to the low sensitivity of clinical signs in assessing upper motor neuron (UMN) involvement in ALS, there is a need for investigative tools capable of detecting abnormal function of the pyramidal tract. Transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) may contribute to the diagnosis by reflecting a UMN dysfunction that is not clinically detectable. Several parameters for the motor responses to TMS can be evaluated with different levels of significance in healthy subjects compared with ALS patients. The central motor conduction time, however, is not sensitive in detecting subclinical UMN defects in individual ALS patients. The amplitude of the motor evoked potential (MEP), expressed as the percentage of the maximum wave, also has a low sensitivity. In some cases, the corticomotor threshold is decreased early in the disease course as a result of corticomotor neuron hyperexcitability induced by glutamate. Later, the threshold increases, indicating a loss of UMN. In our experience, a decreased silent period duration appears to be the most sensitive parameter when using motor TMS in ALS. TMS is also a sensitive technique for investigating the corticobulbar tract, which is difficult to study by other methods. TMS is a widely available, painless and safe technique with a good sensitivity that can visualize both corticospinal and corticobulbar tract abnormalities. The sensitivity can be improved further by taking into account the several MEP parameters, including latency and cortical silent period decreased duration.

  3. Sensitivity analysis practices: Strategies for model-based inference

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saltelli, Andrea [Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen (IPSC), European Commission, Joint Research Centre, TP 361, 21020 Ispra (Vatican City State, Holy See,) (Italy)]. E-mail: andrea.saltelli@jrc.it; Ratto, Marco [Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen (IPSC), European Commission, Joint Research Centre, TP 361, 21020 Ispra (VA) (Italy); Tarantola, Stefano [Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen (IPSC), European Commission, Joint Research Centre, TP 361, 21020 Ispra (VA) (Italy); Campolongo, Francesca [Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen (IPSC), European Commission, Joint Research Centre, TP 361, 21020 Ispra (VA) (Italy)

    2006-10-15

    Fourteen years after Science's review of sensitivity analysis (SA) methods in 1989 (System analysis at molecular scale, by H. Rabitz) we search Science Online to identify and then review all recent articles having 'sensitivity analysis' as a keyword. In spite of the considerable developments which have taken place in this discipline, of the good practices which have emerged, and of existing guidelines for SA issued on both sides of the Atlantic, we could not find in our review other than very primitive SA tools, based on 'one-factor-at-a-time' (OAT) approaches. In the context of model corroboration or falsification, we demonstrate that this use of OAT methods is illicit and unjustified, unless the model under analysis is proved to be linear. We show that available good practices, such as variance based measures and others, are able to overcome OAT shortcomings and easy to implement. These methods also allow the concept of factors importance to be defined rigorously, thus making the factors importance ranking univocal. We analyse the requirements of SA in the context of modelling, and present best available practices on the basis of an elementary model. We also point the reader to available recipes for a rigorous SA.

  4. Sensitivity analysis practices: Strategies for model-based inference

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saltelli, Andrea; Ratto, Marco; Tarantola, Stefano; Campolongo, Francesca

    2006-01-01

    Fourteen years after Science's review of sensitivity analysis (SA) methods in 1989 (System analysis at molecular scale, by H. Rabitz) we search Science Online to identify and then review all recent articles having 'sensitivity analysis' as a keyword. In spite of the considerable developments which have taken place in this discipline, of the good practices which have emerged, and of existing guidelines for SA issued on both sides of the Atlantic, we could not find in our review other than very primitive SA tools, based on 'one-factor-at-a-time' (OAT) approaches. In the context of model corroboration or falsification, we demonstrate that this use of OAT methods is illicit and unjustified, unless the model under analysis is proved to be linear. We show that available good practices, such as variance based measures and others, are able to overcome OAT shortcomings and easy to implement. These methods also allow the concept of factors importance to be defined rigorously, thus making the factors importance ranking univocal. We analyse the requirements of SA in the context of modelling, and present best available practices on the basis of an elementary model. We also point the reader to available recipes for a rigorous SA

  5. Simple Sensitivity Analysis for Orion GNC

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pressburger, Tom; Hoelscher, Brian; Martin, Rodney; Sricharan, Kumar

    2013-01-01

    The performance of Orion flight software, especially its GNC software, is being analyzed by running Monte Carlo simulations of Orion spacecraft flights. The simulated performance is analyzed for conformance with flight requirements, expressed as performance constraints. Flight requirements include guidance (e.g. touchdown distance from target) and control (e.g., control saturation) as well as performance (e.g., heat load constraints). The Monte Carlo simulations disperse hundreds of simulation input variables, for everything from mass properties to date of launch.We describe in this paper a sensitivity analysis tool (Critical Factors Tool or CFT) developed to find the input variables or pairs of variables which by themselves significantly influence satisfaction of requirements or significantly affect key performance metrics (e.g., touchdown distance from target). Knowing these factors can inform robustness analysis, can inform where engineering resources are most needed, and could even affect operations. The contributions of this paper include the introduction of novel sensitivity measures, such as estimating success probability, and a technique for determining whether pairs of factors are interacting dependently or independently. The tool found that input variables such as moments, mass, thrust dispersions, and date of launch were found to be significant factors for success of various requirements. Examples are shown in this paper as well as a summary and physics discussion of EFT-1 driving factors that the tool found.

  6. Invariant methods for an ensemble-based sensitivity analysis of a passive containment cooling system of an AP1000 nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Di Maio, Francesco; Nicola, Giancarlo; Borgonovo, Emanuele; Zio, Enrico

    2016-01-01

    Sensitivity Analysis (SA) is performed to gain fundamental insights on a system behavior that is usually reproduced by a model and to identify the most relevant input variables whose variations affect the system model functional response. For the reliability analysis of passive safety systems of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs), models are Best Estimate (BE) Thermal Hydraulic (TH) codes, that predict the system functional response in normal and accidental conditions and, in this paper, an ensemble of three alternative invariant SA methods is innovatively set up for a SA on the TH code input variables. The ensemble aggregates the input variables raking orders provided by Pearson correlation ratio, Delta method and Beta method. The capability of the ensemble is shown on a BE–TH code of the Passive Containment Cooling System (PCCS) of an Advanced Pressurized water reactor AP1000, during a Loss Of Coolant Accident (LOCA), whose output probability density function (pdf) is approximated by a Finite Mixture Model (FMM), on the basis of a limited number of simulations. - Highlights: • We perform the reliability analysis of a passive safety system of Nuclear Power Plant (NPP). • We use a Thermal Hydraulic (TH) code for predicting the NPP response to accidents. • We propose an ensemble of Invariant Methods for the sensitivity analysis of the TH code • The ensemble aggregates the rankings of Pearson correlation, Delta and Beta methods. • The approach is tested on a Passive Containment Cooling System of an AP1000 NPP.

  7. Sensitization trajectories in childhood revealed by using a cluster analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schoos, Ann-Marie M.; Chawes, Bo L.; Melen, Erik

    2017-01-01

    Prospective Studies on Asthma in Childhood 2000 (COPSAC2000) birth cohort with specific IgE against 13 common food and inhalant allergens at the ages of ½, 1½, 4, and 6 years. An unsupervised cluster analysis for 3-dimensional data (nonnegative sparse parallel factor analysis) was used to extract latent......BACKGROUND: Assessment of sensitization at a single time point during childhood provides limited clinical information. We hypothesized that sensitization develops as specific patterns with respect to age at debut, development over time, and involved allergens and that such patterns might be more...... biologically and clinically relevant. OBJECTIVE: We sought to explore latent patterns of sensitization during the first 6 years of life and investigate whether such patterns associate with the development of asthma, rhinitis, and eczema. METHODS: We investigated 398 children from the at-risk Copenhagen...

  8. Parametric Sensitivity Analysis of the WAVEWATCH III Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beng-Chun Lee

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available The parameters in numerical wave models need to be calibrated be fore a model can be applied to a specific region. In this study, we selected the 8 most important parameters from the source term of the WAVEWATCH III model and subjected them to sensitivity analysis to evaluate the sensitivity of the WAVEWATCH III model to the selected parameters to determine how many of these parameters should be considered for further discussion, and to justify the significance priority of each parameter. After ranking each parameter by sensitivity and assessing their cumulative impact, we adopted the ARS method to search for the optimal values of those parameters to which the WAVEWATCH III model is most sensitive by comparing modeling results with ob served data at two data buoys off the coast of north eastern Taiwan; the goal being to find optimal parameter values for improved modeling of wave development. The procedure adopting optimal parameters in wave simulations did improve the accuracy of the WAVEWATCH III model in comparison to default runs based on field observations at two buoys.

  9. Global and Local Sensitivity Analysis Methods for a Physical System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morio, Jerome

    2011-01-01

    Sensitivity analysis is the study of how the different input variations of a mathematical model influence the variability of its output. In this paper, we review the principle of global and local sensitivity analyses of a complex black-box system. A simulated case of application is given at the end of this paper to compare both approaches.…

  10. Sensitivity Analysis to Control the Far-Wake Unsteadiness Behind Turbines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Esteban Ferrer

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available We explore the stability of wakes arising from 2D flow actuators based on linear momentum actuator disc theory. We use stability and sensitivity analysis (using adjoints to show that the wake stability is controlled by the Reynolds number and the thrust force (or flow resistance applied through the turbine. First, we report that decreasing the thrust force has a comparable stabilising effect to a decrease in Reynolds numbers (based on the turbine diameter. Second, a discrete sensitivity analysis identifies two regions for suitable placement of flow control forcing, one close to the turbines and one far downstream. Third, we show that adding a localised control force, in the regions identified by the sensitivity analysis, stabilises the wake. Particularly, locating the control forcing close to the turbines results in an enhanced stabilisation such that the wake remains steady for significantly higher Reynolds numbers or turbine thrusts. The analysis of the controlled flow fields confirms that modifying the velocity gradient close to the turbine is more efficient to stabilise the wake than controlling the wake far downstream. The analysis is performed for the first flow bifurcation (at low Reynolds numbers which serves as a foundation of the stabilization technique but the control strategy is tested at higher Reynolds numbers in the final section of the paper, showing enhanced stability for a turbulent flow case.

  11. A GIS based spatially-explicit sensitivity and uncertainty analysis approach for multi-criteria decision analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feizizadeh, Bakhtiar; Jankowski, Piotr; Blaschke, Thomas

    2014-03-01

    GIS multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) techniques are increasingly used in landslide susceptibility mapping for the prediction of future hazards, land use planning, as well as for hazard preparedness. However, the uncertainties associated with MCDA techniques are inevitable and model outcomes are open to multiple types of uncertainty. In this paper, we present a systematic approach to uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. We access the uncertainty of landslide susceptibility maps produced with GIS-MCDA techniques. A new spatially-explicit approach and Dempster-Shafer Theory (DST) are employed to assess the uncertainties associated with two MCDA techniques, namely Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) and Ordered Weighted Averaging (OWA) implemented in GIS. The methodology is composed of three different phases. First, weights are computed to express the relative importance of factors (criteria) for landslide susceptibility. Next, the uncertainty and sensitivity of landslide susceptibility is analyzed as a function of weights using Monte Carlo Simulation and Global Sensitivity Analysis. Finally, the results are validated using a landslide inventory database and by applying DST. The comparisons of the obtained landslide susceptibility maps of both MCDA techniques with known landslides show that the AHP outperforms OWA. However, the OWA-generated landslide susceptibility map shows lower uncertainty than the AHP-generated map. The results demonstrate that further improvement in the accuracy of GIS-based MCDA can be achieved by employing an integrated uncertainty-sensitivity analysis approach, in which the uncertainty of landslide susceptibility model is decomposed and attributed to model's criteria weights.

  12. In Vitro Drug Sensitivity Tests to Predict Molecular Target Drug Responses in Surgically Resected Lung Cancer.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ryohei Miyazaki

    Full Text Available Epidermal growth factor receptor-tyrosine kinase inhibitors (EGFR-TKIs and anaplastic lymphoma kinase (ALK inhibitors have dramatically changed the strategy of medical treatment of lung cancer. Patients should be screened for the presence of the EGFR mutation or echinoderm microtubule-associated protein-like 4 (EML4-ALK fusion gene prior to chemotherapy to predict their clinical response. The succinate dehydrogenase inhibition (SDI test and collagen gel droplet embedded culture drug sensitivity test (CD-DST are established in vitro drug sensitivity tests, which may predict the sensitivity of patients to cytotoxic anticancer drugs. We applied in vitro drug sensitivity tests for cyclopedic prediction of clinical responses to different molecular targeting drugs.The growth inhibitory effects of erlotinib and crizotinib were confirmed for lung cancer cell lines using SDI and CD-DST. The sensitivity of 35 cases of surgically resected lung cancer to erlotinib was examined using SDI or CD-DST, and compared with EGFR mutation status.HCC827 (Exon19: E746-A750 del and H3122 (EML4-ALK cells were inhibited by lower concentrations of erlotinib and crizotinib, respectively than A549, H460, and H1975 (L858R+T790M cells were. The viability of the surgically resected lung cancer was 60.0 ± 9.8 and 86.8 ± 13.9% in EGFR-mutants vs. wild types in the SDI (p = 0.0003. The cell viability was 33.5 ± 21.2 and 79.0 ± 18.6% in EGFR mutants vs. wild-type cases (p = 0.026 in CD-DST.In vitro drug sensitivity evaluated by either SDI or CD-DST correlated with EGFR gene status. Therefore, SDI and CD-DST may be useful predictors of potential clinical responses to the molecular anticancer drugs, cyclopedically.

  13. A sensitivity analysis of hazardous waste disposal site climatic and soil design parameters using HELP3

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Adelman, D.D.; Stansbury, J.

    1997-01-01

    The Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) Subtitle C, Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, And Liability Act (CERCLA), and subsequent amendments have formed a comprehensive framework to deal with hazardous wastes on the national level. Key to this waste management is guidance on design (e.g., cover and bottom leachate control systems) of hazardous waste landfills. The objective of this research was to investigate the sensitivity of leachate volume at hazardous waste disposal sites to climatic, soil cover, and vegetative cover (Leaf Area Index) conditions. The computer model HELP3 which has the capability to simulate double bottom liner systems as called for in hazardous waste disposal sites was used in the analysis. HELP3 was used to model 54 combinations of climatic conditions, disposal site soil surface curve numbers, and leaf area index values to investigate how sensitive disposal site leachate volume was to these three variables. Results showed that leachate volume from the bottom double liner system was not sensitive to these parameters. However, the cover liner system leachate volume was quite sensitive to climatic conditions and less sensitive to Leaf Area Index and curve number values. Since humid locations had considerably more cover liner system leachate volume than and locations, different design standards may be appropriate for humid conditions than for and conditions

  14. Variance estimation for sensitivity analysis of poverty and inequality measures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Dudel

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Estimates of poverty and inequality are often based on application of a single equivalence scale, despite the fact that a large number of different equivalence scales can be found in the literature. This paper describes a framework for sensitivity analysis which can be used to account for the variability of equivalence scales and allows to derive variance estimates of results of sensitivity analysis. Simulations show that this method yields reliable estimates. An empirical application reveals that accounting for both variability of equivalence scales and sampling variance leads to confidence intervals which are wide.

  15. Applying DEA sensitivity analysis to efficiency measurement of Vietnamese universities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thi Thanh Huyen Nguyen

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The primary purpose of this study is to measure the technical efficiency of 30 doctorate-granting universities, the universities or the higher education institutes with PhD training programs, in Vietnam, applying the sensitivity analysis of data envelopment analysis (DEA. The study uses eight sets of input-output specifications using the replacement as well as aggregation/disaggregation of variables. The measurement results allow us to examine the sensitivity of the efficiency of these universities with the sets of variables. The findings also show the impact of variables on their efficiency and its “sustainability”.

  16. Relations among child negative emotionality, parenting stress, and maternal sensitive responsiveness in early childhood

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Paulussen-Hoogeboom, M.C.; Stams, G.J.J.M.; Hermanns, J.M.A.; Peetsma, T.T.D.

    2008-01-01

    This short-term longitudinal study focuses on relations between preschool-aged childrens' perceived "difficult" temperament (defined as high negative emotionality) and observed maternal sensitive responsiveness in the context of maternal parenting stress. Design. Participants were fifty-nine

  17. Sensitivity analysis of hybrid power systems using Power Pinch Analysis considering Feed-in Tariff

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mohammad Rozali, Nor Erniza; Wan Alwi, Sharifah Rafidah; Manan, Zainuddin Abdul; Klemeš, Jiří Jaromír

    2016-01-01

    Feed-in Tariff (FiT) has been one of the most effective policies in accelerating the development of renewable energy (RE) projects. The amount of RE electricity in the FiT purchase agreement is an important decision that has to be made by the RE project developers. They have to consider various crucial factors associated with RE system operation as well as its stochastic nature. The presented work aims to assess the sensitivity and profitability of a hybrid power system (HPS) in cases of RE system failure or shutdown. The amount of RE electricity for the FiT purchase agreement in various scenarios was determined using a novel tool called On-Grid Problem Table based on the Power Pinch Analysis (PoPA). A sensitivity table has also been introduced to assist planners to evaluate the effects of the RE system's failure on the profitability of the HPS. This table offers insights on the variance of the RE electricity. The sensitivity analysis of various possible scenarios shows that the RE projects can still provide financial benefits via the FiT, despite the losses incurred from the penalty levied. - Highlights: • A Power Pinch Analysis (PoPA) tool to assess the economics of an HPS with FiT. • The new On-Grid Problem Table for targeting the available RE electricity for FiT sale. • A sensitivity table showing the effect of RE electricity changes on the HPS profitability.

  18. B1 -sensitivity analysis of quantitative magnetization transfer imaging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boudreau, Mathieu; Stikov, Nikola; Pike, G Bruce

    2018-01-01

    To evaluate the sensitivity of quantitative magnetization transfer (qMT) fitted parameters to B 1 inaccuracies, focusing on the difference between two categories of T 1 mapping techniques: B 1 -independent and B 1 -dependent. The B 1 -sensitivity of qMT was investigated and compared using two T 1 measurement methods: inversion recovery (IR) (B 1 -independent) and variable flip angle (VFA), B 1 -dependent). The study was separated into four stages: 1) numerical simulations, 2) sensitivity analysis of the Z-spectra, 3) healthy subjects at 3T, and 4) comparison using three different B 1 imaging techniques. For typical B 1 variations in the brain at 3T (±30%), the simulations resulted in errors of the pool-size ratio (F) ranging from -3% to 7% for VFA, and -40% to > 100% for IR, agreeing with the Z-spectra sensitivity analysis. In healthy subjects, pooled whole-brain Pearson correlation coefficients for F (comparing measured double angle and nominal flip angle B 1 maps) were ρ = 0.97/0.81 for VFA/IR. This work describes the B 1 -sensitivity characteristics of qMT, demonstrating that it varies substantially on the B 1 -dependency of the T 1 mapping method. Particularly, the pool-size ratio is more robust against B 1 inaccuracies if VFA T 1 mapping is used, so much so that B 1 mapping could be omitted without substantially biasing F. Magn Reson Med 79:276-285, 2018. © 2017 International Society for Magnetic Resonance in Medicine. © 2017 International Society for Magnetic Resonance in Medicine.

  19. Investigation of modern methods of probalistic sensitivity analysis of final repository performance assessment models (MOSEL)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spiessl, Sabine; Becker, Dirk-Alexander

    2017-06-01

    Sensitivity analysis is a mathematical means for analysing the sensitivities of a computational model to variations of its input parameters. Thus, it is a tool for managing parameter uncertainties. It is often performed probabilistically as global sensitivity analysis, running the model a large number of times with different parameter value combinations. Going along with the increase of computer capabilities, global sensitivity analysis has been a field of mathematical research for some decades. In the field of final repository modelling, probabilistic analysis is regarded a key element of a modern safety case. An appropriate uncertainty and sensitivity analysis can help identify parameters that need further dedicated research to reduce the overall uncertainty, generally leads to better system understanding and can thus contribute to building confidence in the models. The purpose of the project described here was to systematically investigate different numerical and graphical techniques of sensitivity analysis with typical repository models, which produce a distinctly right-skewed and tailed output distribution and can exhibit a highly nonlinear, non-monotonic or even non-continuous behaviour. For the investigations presented here, three test models were defined that describe generic, but typical repository systems. A number of numerical and graphical sensitivity analysis methods were selected for investigation and, in part, modified or adapted. Different sampling methods were applied to produce various parameter samples of different sizes and many individual runs with the test models were performed. The results were evaluated with the different methods of sensitivity analysis. On this basis the methods were compared and assessed. This report gives an overview of the background and the applied methods. The results obtained for three typical test models are presented and explained; conclusions in view of practical applications are drawn. At the end, a recommendation

  20. Investigation of modern methods of probalistic sensitivity analysis of final repository performance assessment models (MOSEL)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Spiessl, Sabine; Becker, Dirk-Alexander

    2017-06-15

    Sensitivity analysis is a mathematical means for analysing the sensitivities of a computational model to variations of its input parameters. Thus, it is a tool for managing parameter uncertainties. It is often performed probabilistically as global sensitivity analysis, running the model a large number of times with different parameter value combinations. Going along with the increase of computer capabilities, global sensitivity analysis has been a field of mathematical research for some decades. In the field of final repository modelling, probabilistic analysis is regarded a key element of a modern safety case. An appropriate uncertainty and sensitivity analysis can help identify parameters that need further dedicated research to reduce the overall uncertainty, generally leads to better system understanding and can thus contribute to building confidence in the models. The purpose of the project described here was to systematically investigate different numerical and graphical techniques of sensitivity analysis with typical repository models, which produce a distinctly right-skewed and tailed output distribution and can exhibit a highly nonlinear, non-monotonic or even non-continuous behaviour. For the investigations presented here, three test models were defined that describe generic, but typical repository systems. A number of numerical and graphical sensitivity analysis methods were selected for investigation and, in part, modified or adapted. Different sampling methods were applied to produce various parameter samples of different sizes and many individual runs with the test models were performed. The results were evaluated with the different methods of sensitivity analysis. On this basis the methods were compared and assessed. This report gives an overview of the background and the applied methods. The results obtained for three typical test models are presented and explained; conclusions in view of practical applications are drawn. At the end, a recommendation

  1. Application of perturbation methods and sensitivity analysis to water hammer problems in hydraulic networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Balino, Jorge L.; Larreteguy, Axel E.; Andrade Lima, Fernando R.

    1995-01-01

    The differential method was applied to the sensitivity analysis for water hammer problems in hydraulic networks. Starting from the classical water hammer equations in a single-phase liquid with friction, the state vector comprising the piezometric head and the velocity was defined. Applying the differential method the adjoint operator, the adjoint equations with the general form of their boundary conditions, and the general form of the bilinear concomitant were calculated. The discretized adjoint equations and the corresponding boundary conditions were programmed and solved by using the so called method of characteristics. As an example, a constant-level tank connected through a pipe to a valve discharging to atmosphere was considered. The bilinear concomitant was calculated for this particular case. The corresponding sensitivity coefficients due to the variation of different parameters by using both the differential method and the response surface generated by the computer code WHAT were also calculated. The results obtained with these methods show excellent agreement. (author). 11 refs, 2 figs, 2 tabs

  2. TRACE analysis of Phenix core response to an increase of the core inlet sodium temperature

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chenu, A., E-mail: aurelia.chenu@psi.ch [Paul Scherrer Inst., Villigen PSI (Switzerland); Ecole Polytechnique Federale (Switzerland); Mikityuk, K., E-mail: konstantin.mikityuk@psi.ch [Paul Scherrer Inst., Villigen PSI (Switzerland); Adams, R., E-mail: robert.adams@psi.ch [Paul Scherrer Inst., Villigen PSI (Switzerland); Eidgenossische Technische Hochschule, Zurich (Switzerland); Chawla, R., E-mail: rakesh.chawla@epfl.ch [Paul Scherrer Inst., Villigen PSI (Switzerland); Ecole Polytechnique Federale (Switzerland)

    2011-07-01

    This work presents the analysis, using the TRACE code, of the Phenix core response to an inlet sodium temperature increase. The considered experiment was performed in the frame of the Phenix End-Of-Life (EOL) test program of the CEA, prior to the final shutdown of the reactor. It corresponds to a transient following a 40°C increase of the core inlet temperature, which leads to a power decrease of 60%. This work focuses on the first phase of the transient, prior to the reactor scram and pump trip. First, the thermal-hydraulic TRACE model of the core developed for the present analysis is described. The kinetic parameters and feedback coefficients for the point kinetic model were first derived from a 3D static neutronic ERANOS model developed in a former study. The calculated kinetic parameters were then optimized, before use, on the basis of the experimental reactivity in order to minimize the error on the power calculation. The different reactivity feedbacks taken into account include various expansion mechanisms that have been specifically implemented in TRACE for analysis of fast-neutron spectrum systems. The point kinetic model has been used to study the sensitivity of the core response to the different feedback effects. The comparison of the calculated results with the experimental data reveals the need to accurately calculate the reactivity feedback coefficients. This is because the reactor response is very sensitive to small reactivity changes. This study has enabled us to study the sensitivity of the power change to the different reactivity feedbacks and define the most important parameters. As such, it furthers the validation of the FAST code system, which is being used to gain a more in-depth understanding of SFR core behavior during accidental transients. (author)

  3. HF Propagation sensitivity study and system performance analysis with the Air Force Coverage Analysis Program (AFCAP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caton, R. G.; Colman, J. J.; Parris, R. T.; Nickish, L.; Bullock, G.

    2017-12-01

    The Air Force Research Laboratory, in collaboration with NorthWest Research Associates, is developing advanced software capabilities for high fidelity simulations of high frequency (HF) sky wave propagation and performance analysis of HF systems. Based on the HiCIRF (High-frequency Channel Impulse Response Function) platform [Nickisch et. al, doi:10.1029/2011RS004928], the new Air Force Coverage Analysis Program (AFCAP) provides the modular capabilities necessary for a comprehensive sensitivity study of the large number of variables which define simulations of HF propagation modes. In this paper, we report on an initial exercise of AFCAP to analyze the sensitivities of the tool to various environmental and geophysical parameters. Through examination of the channel scattering function and amplitude-range-Doppler output on two-way propagation paths with injected target signals, we will compare simulated returns over a range of geophysical conditions as well as varying definitions for environmental noise, meteor clutter, and sea state models for Bragg backscatter. We also investigate the impacts of including clutter effects due to field-aligned backscatter from small scale ionization structures at varied levels of severity as defined by the climatologically WideBand Model (WBMOD). In the absence of additional user provided information, AFCAP relies on International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) model to define the ionospheric state for use in 2D ray tracing algorithms. Because the AFCAP architecture includes the option for insertion of a user defined gridded ionospheric representation, we compare output from the tool using the IRI and ionospheric definitions from assimilative models such as GPSII (GPS Ionospheric Inversion).

  4. Integration of multiple cues allows threat-sensitive anti-intraguild predator responses in predatory mites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walzer, Andreas; Schausberger, Peter

    2013-01-01

    Intraguild (IG) prey is commonly confronted with multiple IG predator species. However, the IG predation (IGP) risk for prey is not only dependent on the predator species, but also on inherent (intraspecific) characteristics of a given IG predator such as its life-stage, sex or gravidity and the associated prey needs. Thus, IG prey should have evolved the ability to integrate multiple IG predator cues, which should allow both inter- and intraspecific threat-sensitive anti-predator responses. Using a guild of plant-inhabiting predatory mites sharing spider mites as prey, we evaluated the effects of single and combined cues (eggs and/or chemical traces left by a predator female on the substrate) of the low risk IG predator Neoseiulus californicus and the high risk IG predator Amblyseius andersoni on time, distance and path shape parameters of the larval IG prey Phytoseiulus persimilis. IG prey discriminated between traces of the low and high risk IG predator, with and without additional presence of their eggs, indicating interspecific threat-sensitivity. The behavioural changes were manifest in distance moved, activity and path shape of IG prey. The cue combination of traces and eggs of the IG predators conveyed other information than each cue alone, allowing intraspecific threat-sensitive responses by IG prey apparent in changed velocities and distances moved. We argue that graded responses to single and combined IG predator cues are adaptive due to minimization of acceptance errors in IG prey decision making. PMID:23750040

  5. Code development for eigenvalue total sensitivity analysis and total uncertainty analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wan, Chenghui; Cao, Liangzhi; Wu, Hongchun; Zu, Tiejun; Shen, Wei

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • We develop a new code for total sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. • The implicit effects of cross sections can be considered. • The results of our code agree well with TSUNAMI-1D. • Detailed analysis for origins of implicit effects is performed. - Abstract: The uncertainties of multigroup cross sections notably impact eigenvalue of neutron-transport equation. We report on a total sensitivity analysis and total uncertainty analysis code named UNICORN that has been developed by applying the direct numerical perturbation method and statistical sampling method. In order to consider the contributions of various basic cross sections and the implicit effects which are indirect results of multigroup cross sections through resonance self-shielding calculation, an improved multigroup cross-section perturbation model is developed. The DRAGON 4.0 code, with application of WIMSD-4 format library, is used by UNICORN to carry out the resonance self-shielding and neutron-transport calculations. In addition, the bootstrap technique has been applied to the statistical sampling method in UNICORN to obtain much steadier and more reliable uncertainty results. The UNICORN code has been verified against TSUNAMI-1D by analyzing the case of TMI-1 pin-cell. The numerical results show that the total uncertainty of eigenvalue caused by cross sections can reach up to be about 0.72%. Therefore the contributions of the basic cross sections and their implicit effects are not negligible

  6. Development of a System Analysis Toolkit for Sensitivity Analysis, Uncertainty Propagation, and Estimation of Parameter Distribution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heo, Jaeseok; Kim, Kyung Doo

    2015-01-01

    Statistical approaches to uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis are very important in estimating the safety margins for an engineering design application. This paper presents a system analysis and optimization toolkit developed by Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI), which includes multiple packages of the sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification algorithms. In order to reduce the computing demand, multiple compute resources including multiprocessor computers and a network of workstations are simultaneously used. A Graphical User Interface (GUI) was also developed within the parallel computing framework for users to readily employ the toolkit for an engineering design and optimization problem. The goal of this work is to develop a GUI framework for engineering design and scientific analysis problems by implementing multiple packages of system analysis methods in the parallel computing toolkit. This was done by building an interface between an engineering simulation code and the system analysis software packages. The methods and strategies in the framework were designed to exploit parallel computing resources such as those found in a desktop multiprocessor workstation or a network of workstations. Available approaches in the framework include statistical and mathematical algorithms for use in science and engineering design problems. Currently the toolkit has 6 modules of the system analysis methodologies: deterministic and probabilistic approaches of data assimilation, uncertainty propagation, Chi-square linearity test, sensitivity analysis, and FFTBM

  7. Development of a System Analysis Toolkit for Sensitivity Analysis, Uncertainty Propagation, and Estimation of Parameter Distribution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heo, Jaeseok; Kim, Kyung Doo [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-05-15

    Statistical approaches to uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis are very important in estimating the safety margins for an engineering design application. This paper presents a system analysis and optimization toolkit developed by Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI), which includes multiple packages of the sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification algorithms. In order to reduce the computing demand, multiple compute resources including multiprocessor computers and a network of workstations are simultaneously used. A Graphical User Interface (GUI) was also developed within the parallel computing framework for users to readily employ the toolkit for an engineering design and optimization problem. The goal of this work is to develop a GUI framework for engineering design and scientific analysis problems by implementing multiple packages of system analysis methods in the parallel computing toolkit. This was done by building an interface between an engineering simulation code and the system analysis software packages. The methods and strategies in the framework were designed to exploit parallel computing resources such as those found in a desktop multiprocessor workstation or a network of workstations. Available approaches in the framework include statistical and mathematical algorithms for use in science and engineering design problems. Currently the toolkit has 6 modules of the system analysis methodologies: deterministic and probabilistic approaches of data assimilation, uncertainty propagation, Chi-square linearity test, sensitivity analysis, and FFTBM.

  8. Effect of Fluticasone and Salmeterol on Tracheal Responsiveness to Ovalbumin and Lung Inflammation, Administrated during and after Sensitization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zahra Gholamnezhad

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The effect of duration of administration of fluticasone propionate and salmeterol on tracheal responsiveness to ovalbumin and total and differential white blood cell in sensitized guinea pig was examined. Six groups of guinea pigs (n=7 were sensitized to ovalbumin. Three groups of them were subjected to inhaled fluticasone propionate and salmeterol, one group during sensitization (A, one group after that (for 18 days, B, and the other one during sensitization but with 18 days delay before measurements (C. Three other groups were treated with placebo in the same manner. The tracheal responsiveness to ovalbumin and total and differential white blood cells of three placebo groups were significantly higher than those of control group (P<0.001 for all cases. Tracheal responsiveness to ovalbumin and total and differential white blood cell in treated groups with fluticasone propionate and salmeterol were significantly decreased compared to those of placebo groups (nonsignificant to P<0.001. The improvement in all variables in treatment groups A and C were more pronounced than group B. The results showed that fluticasone propionate and salmeterol had a prevention effect on tracheal hyperresponsiveness to ovalbumin and lung inflammation which was more pronounced when administered during than after sensitization.

  9. Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis of an Eulerian large-scale air pollution model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dimov, I.; Georgieva, R.; Ostromsky, Tz.

    2012-01-01

    Variance-based approaches for global sensitivity analysis have been applied and analyzed to study the sensitivity of air pollutant concentrations according to variations of rates of chemical reactions. The Unified Danish Eulerian Model has been used as a mathematical model simulating a remote transport of air pollutants. Various Monte Carlo algorithms for numerical integration have been applied to compute Sobol's global sensitivity indices. A newly developed Monte Carlo algorithm based on Sobol's quasi-random points MCA-MSS has been applied for numerical integration. It has been compared with some existing approaches, namely Sobol's ΛΠ τ sequences, an adaptive Monte Carlo algorithm, the plain Monte Carlo algorithm, as well as, eFAST and Sobol's sensitivity approaches both implemented in SIMLAB software. The analysis and numerical results show advantages of MCA-MSS for relatively small sensitivity indices in terms of accuracy and efficiency. Practical guidelines on the estimation of Sobol's global sensitivity indices in the presence of computational difficulties have been provided. - Highlights: ► Variance-based global sensitivity analysis is performed for the air pollution model UNI-DEM. ► The main effect of input parameters dominates over higher-order interactions. ► Ozone concentrations are influenced mostly by variability of three chemical reactions rates. ► The newly developed MCA-MSS for multidimensional integration is compared with other approaches. ► More precise approaches like MCA-MSS should be applied when the needed accuracy has not been achieved.

  10. Nordic reference study on uncertainty and sensitivity analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hirschberg, S.; Jacobsson, P.; Pulkkinen, U.; Porn, K.

    1989-01-01

    This paper provides a review of the first phase of Nordic reference study on uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. The main objective of this study is to use experiences form previous Nordic Benchmark Exercises and reference studies concerning critical modeling issues such as common cause failures and human interactions, and to demonstrate the impact of associated uncertainties on the uncertainty of the investigated accident sequence. This has been done independently by three working groups which used different approaches to modeling and to uncertainty analysis. The estimated uncertainty interval for the analyzed accident sequence is large. Also the discrepancies between the groups are substantial but can be explained. Sensitivity analyses which have been carried out concern e.g. use of different CCF-quantification models, alternative handling of CCF-data, time windows for operator actions and time dependences in phase mission operation, impact of state-of-knowledge dependences and ranking of dominating uncertainty contributors. Specific findings with respect to these issues are summarized in the paper

  11. Linear Parametric Sensitivity Analysis of the Constraint Coefficient Matrix in Linear Programs

    OpenAIRE

    Zuidwijk, Rob

    2005-01-01

    textabstractSensitivity analysis is used to quantify the impact of changes in the initial data of linear programs on the optimal value. In particular, parametric sensitivity analysis involves a perturbation analysis in which the effects of small changes of some or all of the initial data on an optimal solution are investigated, and the optimal solution is studied on a so-called critical range of the initial data, in which certain properties such as the optimal basis in linear programming are ...

  12. Global sensitivity analysis of Alkali-Surfactant-Polymer enhanced oil recovery processes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carrero, Enrique; Queipo, Nestor V.; Pintos, Salvador; Zerpa, Luis E. [Applied Computing Institute, Faculty of Engineering, University of Zulia, Zulia (Venezuela)

    2007-08-15

    After conventional waterflooding processes the residual oil in the reservoir remains as a discontinuous phase in the form of oil drops trapped by capillary forces and is likely to be around 70% of the original oil in place (OOIP). The EOR method so-called Alkaline-Surfactant-Polymer (ASP) flooding has been proved to be effective in reducing the oil residual saturation in laboratory experiments and field projects through reduction of interfacial tension and mobility ratio between oil and water phases. A critical step for the optimal design and control of ASP recovery processes is to find the relative contributions of design variables such as, slug size and chemical concentrations, in the variability of given performance measures (e.g., net present value, cumulative oil recovery), considering a heterogeneous and multiphase petroleum reservoir (sensitivity analysis). Previously reported works using reservoir numerical simulation have been limited to local sensitivity analyses because a global sensitivity analysis may require hundreds or even thousands of computationally expensive evaluations (field scale numerical simulations). To overcome this issue, a surrogate-based approach is suggested. Surrogate-based analysis/optimization makes reference to the idea of constructing an alternative fast model (surrogate) from numerical simulation data and using it for analysis/optimization purposes. This paper presents an efficient global sensitivity approach based on Sobol's method and multiple surrogates (i.e., Polynomial Regression, Kriging, Radial Base Functions and a Weighed Adaptive Model), with the multiple surrogates used to address the uncertainty in the analysis derived from plausible alternative surrogate-modeling schemes. The proposed approach was evaluated in the context of the global sensitivity analysis of a field scale Alkali-Surfactant-Polymer flooding process. The design variables and the performance measure in the ASP process were selected as slug size

  13. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis incorporating the bootstrap: an example comparing treatments for the eradication of Helicobacter pylori.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pasta, D J; Taylor, J L; Henning, J M

    1999-01-01

    Decision-analytic models are frequently used to evaluate the relative costs and benefits of alternative therapeutic strategies for health care. Various types of sensitivity analysis are used to evaluate the uncertainty inherent in the models. Although probabilistic sensitivity analysis is more difficult theoretically and computationally, the results can be much more powerful and useful than deterministic sensitivity analysis. The authors show how a Monte Carlo simulation can be implemented using standard software to perform a probabilistic sensitivity analysis incorporating the bootstrap. The method is applied to a decision-analytic model evaluating the cost-effectiveness of Helicobacter pylori eradication. The necessary steps are straightforward and are described in detail. The use of the bootstrap avoids certain difficulties encountered with theoretical distributions. The probabilistic sensitivity analysis provided insights into the decision-analytic model beyond the traditional base-case and deterministic sensitivity analyses and should become the standard method for assessing sensitivity.

  14. Coincidence detection of single-photon responses in the inner retina at the sensitivity limit of vision.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ala-Laurila, Petri; Rieke, Fred

    2014-12-15

    Vision in starlight relies on our ability to detect single absorbed photons. Indeed, the sensitivity of dark-adapted vision approaches limits set by the quantal nature of light. This sensitivity requires neural mechanisms that selectively transmit quantal responses and suppress noise. Such mechanisms face an inevitable tradeoff because signal and noise cannot be perfectly separated, and rejecting noise also means rejecting signal. We report measurements of single-photon responses in the output signals of the primate retina. We find that visual signals arising from a few absorbed photons are read out fundamentally differently by primate On and Off parasol ganglion cells, key retinal output neurons. Off parasol cells respond linearly to near-threshold flashes, retaining sensitivity to each absorbed photon but maintaining a high level of noise. On parasol cells respond nonlinearly due to thresholding of their excitatory synaptic inputs. This nonlinearity reduces neural noise but also limits information about single-photon absorptions. The long-standing idea that information about each photon absorption is available for behavior at the sensitivity limit of vision is not universally true across retinal outputs. More generally, our work shows how a neural circuit balances the competing needs for sensitivity and noise rejection. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Sensitivity Analysis of features in tolerancing based on constraint function level sets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ziegler, Philipp; Wartzack, Sandro

    2015-01-01

    Usually, the geometry of the manufactured product inherently varies from the nominal geometry. This may negatively affect the product functions and properties (such as quality and reliability), as well as the assemblability of the single components. In order to avoid this, the geometric variation of these component surfaces and associated geometry elements (like hole axes) are restricted by tolerances. Since tighter tolerances lead to significant higher manufacturing costs, tolerances should be specified carefully. Therefore, the impact of deviating component surfaces on functions, properties and assemblability of the product has to be analyzed. As physical experiments are expensive, methods of statistical tolerance analysis tools are widely used in engineering design. Current tolerance simulation tools lack of an appropriate indicator for the impact of deviating component surfaces. In the adoption of Sensitivity Analysis methods, there are several challenges, which arise from the specific framework in tolerancing. This paper presents an approach to adopt Sensitivity Analysis methods on current tolerance simulations with an interface module, which bases on level sets of constraint functions for parameters of the simulation model. The paper is an extension and generalization of Ziegler and Wartzack [1]. Mathematical properties of the constraint functions (convexity, homogeneity), which are important for the computational costs of the Sensitivity Analysis, are shown. The practical use of the method is illustrated in a case study of a plain bearing. - Highlights: • Alternative definition of Deviation Domains. • Proof of mathematical properties of the Deviation Domains. • Definition of the interface between Deviation Domains and Sensitivity Analysis. • Sensitivity analysis of a gearbox to show the methods practical use

  16. Sensitivity and responsiveness of the patient-reported TED-QOL to rehabilitative surgery in thyroid eye disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fayers, Tessa; Fayers, Peter M; Dolman, Peter J

    2016-12-01

    We tested the sensitivity and responsiveness of the TED-QOL to rehabilitative surgery in thyroid eye disease (TED). The 3-item TED-QOL and 16-item GO-QOL, which assess quality of life (QoL) in TED, were administered to consecutive patients undergoing rehabilitative surgery. The questionnaires were completed pre-and post-operatively to assess sensitivity (ability to discriminate between different surgical groups) and responsiveness (ability to detect within patient changes over time).56 patients underwent 69 procedures for TED (29 orbital decompressions, 15 strabismus operations, 25 eyelid procedures). The differences in scores between the three types of surgery (a measure of sensitivity) were statistically significant at the 5% level pre-operatively and post-operatively for all 3 TED-QOL scales and for both GO-QOL scales, but much more so for the TED-QOL scales in each case. The within-patient changes between the pre- and post-operative scores for the same subjects (a measure of responsiveness) were statistically very highly significant for the TED-QOL overall and appearance scales for each of the surgeries. The pre- and post-operative difference for the TED-QOL functioning scale was highly statistically significant for strabismus surgery but not for decompression or lid surgery. The change between the pre- and post-operative scores for the GO-QOL was significant for the functioning scale with strabismus and lid surgery, and was highly significant for the appearance scale with lid surgery but not for strabismus surgery or decompression. The 3-item TED-QOL is sensitive and responsive to rehabilitative surgery in TED and compares favorably with the lengthier GO-QOL for these parameters.

  17. Grid and basis adaptive polynomial chaos techniques for sensitivity and uncertainty analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Perkó, Zoltán, E-mail: Z.Perko@tudelft.nl; Gilli, Luca, E-mail: Gilli@nrg.eu; Lathouwers, Danny, E-mail: D.Lathouwers@tudelft.nl; Kloosterman, Jan Leen, E-mail: J.L.Kloosterman@tudelft.nl

    2014-03-01

    The demand for accurate and computationally affordable sensitivity and uncertainty techniques is constantly on the rise and has become especially pressing in the nuclear field with the shift to Best Estimate Plus Uncertainty methodologies in the licensing of nuclear installations. Besides traditional, already well developed methods – such as first order perturbation theory or Monte Carlo sampling – Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) has been given a growing emphasis in recent years due to its simple application and good performance. This paper presents new developments of the research done at TU Delft on such Polynomial Chaos (PC) techniques. Our work is focused on the Non-Intrusive Spectral Projection (NISP) approach and adaptive methods for building the PCE of responses of interest. Recent efforts resulted in a new adaptive sparse grid algorithm designed for estimating the PC coefficients. The algorithm is based on Gerstner's procedure for calculating multi-dimensional integrals but proves to be computationally significantly cheaper, while at the same it retains a similar accuracy as the original method. More importantly the issue of basis adaptivity has been investigated and two techniques have been implemented for constructing the sparse PCE of quantities of interest. Not using the traditional full PC basis set leads to further reduction in computational time since the high order grids necessary for accurately estimating the near zero expansion coefficients of polynomial basis vectors not needed in the PCE can be excluded from the calculation. Moreover the sparse PC representation of the response is easier to handle when used for sensitivity analysis or uncertainty propagation due to the smaller number of basis vectors. The developed grid and basis adaptive methods have been implemented in Matlab as the Fully Adaptive Non-Intrusive Spectral Projection (FANISP) algorithm and were tested on four analytical problems. These show consistent good performance

  18. Grid and basis adaptive polynomial chaos techniques for sensitivity and uncertainty analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perkó, Zoltán; Gilli, Luca; Lathouwers, Danny; Kloosterman, Jan Leen

    2014-01-01

    The demand for accurate and computationally affordable sensitivity and uncertainty techniques is constantly on the rise and has become especially pressing in the nuclear field with the shift to Best Estimate Plus Uncertainty methodologies in the licensing of nuclear installations. Besides traditional, already well developed methods – such as first order perturbation theory or Monte Carlo sampling – Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) has been given a growing emphasis in recent years due to its simple application and good performance. This paper presents new developments of the research done at TU Delft on such Polynomial Chaos (PC) techniques. Our work is focused on the Non-Intrusive Spectral Projection (NISP) approach and adaptive methods for building the PCE of responses of interest. Recent efforts resulted in a new adaptive sparse grid algorithm designed for estimating the PC coefficients. The algorithm is based on Gerstner's procedure for calculating multi-dimensional integrals but proves to be computationally significantly cheaper, while at the same it retains a similar accuracy as the original method. More importantly the issue of basis adaptivity has been investigated and two techniques have been implemented for constructing the sparse PCE of quantities of interest. Not using the traditional full PC basis set leads to further reduction in computational time since the high order grids necessary for accurately estimating the near zero expansion coefficients of polynomial basis vectors not needed in the PCE can be excluded from the calculation. Moreover the sparse PC representation of the response is easier to handle when used for sensitivity analysis or uncertainty propagation due to the smaller number of basis vectors. The developed grid and basis adaptive methods have been implemented in Matlab as the Fully Adaptive Non-Intrusive Spectral Projection (FANISP) algorithm and were tested on four analytical problems. These show consistent good performance both

  19. Sensitivity analysis in multiple imputation in effectiveness studies of psychotherapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crameri, Aureliano; von Wyl, Agnes; Koemeda, Margit; Schulthess, Peter; Tschuschke, Volker

    2015-01-01

    The importance of preventing and treating incomplete data in effectiveness studies is nowadays emphasized. However, most of the publications focus on randomized clinical trials (RCT). One flexible technique for statistical inference with missing data is multiple imputation (MI). Since methods such as MI rely on the assumption of missing data being at random (MAR), a sensitivity analysis for testing the robustness against departures from this assumption is required. In this paper we present a sensitivity analysis technique based on posterior predictive checking, which takes into consideration the concept of clinical significance used in the evaluation of intra-individual changes. We demonstrate the possibilities this technique can offer with the example of irregular longitudinal data collected with the Outcome Questionnaire-45 (OQ-45) and the Helping Alliance Questionnaire (HAQ) in a sample of 260 outpatients. The sensitivity analysis can be used to (1) quantify the degree of bias introduced by missing not at random data (MNAR) in a worst reasonable case scenario, (2) compare the performance of different analysis methods for dealing with missing data, or (3) detect the influence of possible violations to the model assumptions (e.g., lack of normality). Moreover, our analysis showed that ratings from the patient's and therapist's version of the HAQ could significantly improve the predictive value of the routine outcome monitoring based on the OQ-45. Since analysis dropouts always occur, repeated measurements with the OQ-45 and the HAQ analyzed with MI are useful to improve the accuracy of outcome estimates in quality assurance assessments and non-randomized effectiveness studies in the field of outpatient psychotherapy.

  20. An investigation of the matrix sensitivity of refinery gas analysis using gas chromatography with flame ionisation detection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferracci, Valerio; Brown, Andrew S; Harris, Peter M; Brown, Richard J C

    2015-02-27

    The response of a flame ionisation detector (FID) on a gas chromatograph to methane, ethane, propane, i-butane and n-butane in a series of multi-component refinery gas standards was investigated to assess the matrix sensitivity of the instrument. High-accuracy synthetic gas standards, traceable to the International System of Units, were used to minimise uncertainties. The instrument response exhibited a small dependence on the component amount fraction: this behaviour, consistent with that of another FID, was thoroughly characterised over a wide range of component amount fractions and was shown to introduce a negligible bias in the analysis of refinery gas samples, provided a suitable reference standard is employed. No significant effects of the molar volume, density and viscosity of the gas mixtures on the instrument response were observed, indicating that the FID is suitable for the analysis of refinery gas mixtures over a wide range of component amount fractions provided that appropriate drift-correction procedures are employed. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Diagnostic accuracy of magnetic resonance imaging techniques for treatment response evaluation in patients with high-grade glioma, a systematic review and meta-analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dijken, Bart R.J. van [University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen Department of Radiology, Groningen (Netherlands); Laar, Peter Jan van; Hoorn, Anouk van der [University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen Department of Radiology, Groningen (Netherlands); University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen, Center for Medical Imaging-North East Netherlands, Groningen (Netherlands); Holtman, Gea A. [University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen, Department of General Practice, Groningen (Netherlands)

    2017-10-15

    Treatment response assessment in high-grade gliomas uses contrast enhanced T1-weighted MRI, but is unreliable. Novel advanced MRI techniques have been studied, but the accuracy is not well known. Therefore, we performed a systematic meta-analysis to assess the diagnostic accuracy of anatomical and advanced MRI for treatment response in high-grade gliomas. Databases were searched systematically. Study selection and data extraction were done by two authors independently. Meta-analysis was performed using a bivariate random effects model when ≥5 studies were included. Anatomical MRI (five studies, 166 patients) showed a pooled sensitivity and specificity of 68% (95%CI 51-81) and 77% (45-93), respectively. Pooled apparent diffusion coefficients (seven studies, 204 patients) demonstrated a sensitivity of 71% (60-80) and specificity of 87% (77-93). DSC-perfusion (18 studies, 708 patients) sensitivity was 87% (82-91) with a specificity of 86% (77-91). DCE-perfusion (five studies, 207 patients) sensitivity was 92% (73-98) and specificity was 85% (76-92). The sensitivity of spectroscopy (nine studies, 203 patients) was 91% (79-97) and specificity was 95% (65-99). Advanced techniques showed higher diagnostic accuracy than anatomical MRI, the highest for spectroscopy, supporting the use in treatment response assessment in high-grade gliomas. (orig.)

  2. Friendship Conflict, Conflict Responses, and Instability: Unique Links to Anxious and Angry Forms of Rejection Sensitivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Croft, Carissa D.; Zimmer-Gembeck, Melanie J.

    2014-01-01

    Rejection sensitivity (RS) instigates conflict and prompts maladaptive conflict responses within romantic relationships. We tested whether RS had similar effects within friendships (N = 262, X[subscript age] = 11.7) by investigating whether (a) RS was associated with more frequent conflict, (b) two RS forms prompted different conflict responses,…

  3. SLC6A3 polymorphism and response to methylphenidate in children with ADHD: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soleimani, Robabeh; Salehi, Zivar; Soltanipour, Soheil; Hasandokht, Tolou; Jalali, Mir Mohammad

    2018-04-01

    Methylphenidate (MPH) is the most commonly used treatment for attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) in children. However, the response to MPH is not similar in all patients. This meta-analysis investigated the potential role of SLC6A3 polymorphisms in response to MPH in children with ADHD. Clinical trials or naturalistic studies were selected from electronic databases. A meta-analysis was conducted using a random-effects model. Cohen's d effect size and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were determined. Sensitivity analysis and meta-regression were performed. Q-statistic and Egger's tests were conducted to evaluate heterogeneity and publication bias, respectively. The Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) system was used to assess the quality of evidence. Sixteen studies with follow-up periods of 1-28 weeks were eligible. The mean treatment acceptability of MPH was 97.2%. In contrast to clinical trials, the meta-analysis of naturalistic studies indicated that children without 10/10 repeat carriers had better response to MPH (Cohen's d: -0.09 and 0.44, respectively). The 9/9 repeat polymorphism had no effect on the response rate (Cohen's d: -0.43). In the meta-regression, a significant association was observed between baseline severity of ADHD, MPH dosage, and combined type of ADHD in some genetic models. Sensitivity analysis indicated the robustness of our findings. No publication bias was observed in our meta-analysis. The GRADE evaluations revealed very low levels of confidence for each outcome of response to MPH. The results of clinical trials and naturalistic studies regarding the effect size between different polymorphisms of SLC6A3 were contradictory. Therefore, further research is recommended. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  4. Seismic sensitivity study of a generic CANDU nuclear power plant: Soil-structure interaction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, L.S.S.; Duff, C.G.

    1983-01-01

    The seismic sensitivity and capability study for a generic CANDU Plant is part of an overall development program of design standardization. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the sensitivities of structural responses and floor response spectra (FRS) to variations of structural and soil parameters. In the seismic design standardization, a wide range of soil conditions is considered and the envelopes of the resulting site spectra (soil-structure interaction effect) are then used for the design of the generic plant. The nuclear island structures considered herein have different relative stiffness and one of them has two layout/structure schemes: one is relatively flexible and the other is moderately stiff. In the preliminary phase of the seismic sensitivity study presented hereby, the soil-structure interaction seismic analysis is based on the half-space modelling (soil-spring lumped-mass) method and the response spectrum method for the seismic responses. Distinct patterns and sensitivity of the site spectrum analysis for structure schemes of different relative stiffness and for different structural elevations are observed and discussed. (orig.)

  5. Sensitivity analysis overlaps of friction elements in cartridge seals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Žmindák Milan

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Cartridge seals are self-contained units consisting of a shaft sleeve, seals, and gland plate. The applications of mechanical seals are numerous. The most common example of application is in bearing production for automobile industry. This paper deals with the sensitivity analysis of overlaps friction elements in cartridge seal and their influence on the friction torque sealing and compressive force. Furthermore, it describes materials for the manufacture of sealings, approaches usually used to solution of hyperelastic materials by FEM and short introduction into the topic wheel bearings. The practical part contains one of the approach for measurement friction torque, which results were used to specifying the methodology and precision of FEM calculation realized by software ANSYS WORKBENCH. This part also contains the sensitivity analysis of overlaps friction elements.

  6. Ammonium hydroxide enhancing electrospray response and boosting sensitivity of bisphenol A and its analogs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Dongqin; Jin, Jing; Wang, Longxing; Zhao, Xueqin; Guo, Cuicui; Sun, Xiaoli; Dhanjai; Lu, Xianbo; Chen, Jiping

    2018-05-15

    As one of the most important analytical techniques for accurate quantification of bisphenol compounds, liquid chromatography coupled to online electrospray ionization (ESI) tandem mass spectrometry exhibits relative weak ESI response in negative mode, which greatly reduces their sensitivity and limits their detection at trace levels, especially in complex samples such as blood. Based on the facilitated deprotonation of bisphenol molecule under alkaline condition, post-column injection of ammonium hydroxide (NH 3 ·H 2 O) to mass spectrometer was explored to enhance the ionization efficiency of BPA and its eight analogs and improve their analytical sensitivity. Parameters effecting response intensity and stability were investigated, including mass concentration and flow rate of NH 3 ·H 2 O. Under the optimal conditions with the addition of 2% (w/w) of NH 3 ·H 2 O at 4 μL min -1 , the instrument detection limits for bisphenol compounds were greatly lowered to 0.001-0.04 ng mL -1 , which were 2-28.6 times lower than the result obtained without injecting NH 3 ·H 2 O, except TBBPA (0.03 ng mL -1 in either case). The relative standard deviations (RSDs) for instrument repeatability of BPA and its analogs at three different concentration levels were in a range of 1.2-20%. Furthermore, a decreased matrix effects (90-111%) for bisphenols (except TBBPA) analysis in serum extracts were found compared with the result obtained without NH 3 ·H 2 O injection (43-111%). The results demonstrated that the improved instrumental method coupled with suitable pretreatment techniques is more feasible to analyze bisphenol compounds in complex bio-samples. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Using sparse polynomial chaos expansions for the global sensitivity analysis of groundwater lifetime expectancy in a multi-layered hydrogeological model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deman, G.; Konakli, K.; Sudret, B.; Kerrou, J.; Perrochet, P.; Benabderrahmane, H.

    2016-01-01

    The study makes use of polynomial chaos expansions to compute Sobol' indices within the frame of a global sensitivity analysis of hydro-dispersive parameters in a simplified vertical cross-section of a segment of the subsurface of the Paris Basin. Applying conservative ranges, the uncertainty in 78 input variables is propagated upon the mean lifetime expectancy of water molecules departing from a specific location within a highly confining layer situated in the middle of the model domain. Lifetime expectancy is a hydrogeological performance measure pertinent to safety analysis with respect to subsurface contaminants, such as radionuclides. The sensitivity analysis indicates that the variability in the mean lifetime expectancy can be sufficiently explained by the uncertainty in the petrofacies, i.e. the sets of porosity and hydraulic conductivity, of only a few layers of the model. The obtained results provide guidance regarding the uncertainty modeling in future investigations employing detailed numerical models of the subsurface of the Paris Basin. Moreover, the study demonstrates the high efficiency of sparse polynomial chaos expansions in computing Sobol' indices for high-dimensional models. - Highlights: • Global sensitivity analysis of a 2D 15-layer groundwater flow model is conducted. • A high-dimensional random input comprising 78 parameters is considered. • The variability in the mean lifetime expectancy for the central layer is examined. • Sparse polynomial chaos expansions are used to compute Sobol' sensitivity indices. • The petrofacies of a few layers can sufficiently explain the response variance.

  8. Adjoint sensitivity analysis procedure of Markov chains with applications on reliability of IFMIF accelerator-system facilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Balan, I.

    2005-05-01

    This work presents the implementation of the Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Procedure (ASAP) for the Continuous Time, Discrete Space Markov chains (CTMC), as an alternative to the other computational expensive methods. In order to develop this procedure as an end product in reliability studies, the reliability of the physical systems is analyzed using a coupled Fault-Tree - Markov chain technique, i.e. the abstraction of the physical system is performed using as the high level interface the Fault-Tree and afterwards this one is automatically converted into a Markov chain. The resulting differential equations based on the Markov chain model are solved in order to evaluate the system reliability. Further sensitivity analyses using ASAP applied to CTMC equations are performed to study the influence of uncertainties in input data to the reliability measures and to get the confidence in the final reliability results. The methods to generate the Markov chain and the ASAP for the Markov chain equations have been implemented into the new computer code system QUEFT/MARKOMAGS/MCADJSEN for reliability and sensitivity analysis of physical systems. The validation of this code system has been carried out by using simple problems for which analytical solutions can be obtained. Typical sensitivity results show that the numerical solution using ASAP is robust, stable and accurate. The method and the code system developed during this work can be used further as an efficient and flexible tool to evaluate the sensitivities of reliability measures for any physical system analyzed using the Markov chain. Reliability and sensitivity analyses using these methods have been performed during this work for the IFMIF Accelerator System Facilities. The reliability studies using Markov chain have been concentrated around the availability of the main subsystems of this complex physical system for a typical mission time. The sensitivity studies for two typical responses using ASAP have been

  9. Restructuring of burnup sensitivity analysis code system by using an object-oriented design approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kenji, Yokoyama; Makoto, Ishikawa; Masahiro, Tatsumi; Hideaki, Hyoudou

    2005-01-01

    A new burnup sensitivity analysis code system was developed with help from the object-oriented technique and written in Python language. It was confirmed that they are powerful to support complex numerical calculation procedure such as reactor burnup sensitivity analysis. The new burnup sensitivity analysis code system PSAGEP was restructured from a complicated old code system and reborn as a user-friendly code system which can calculate the sensitivity coefficients of the nuclear characteristics considering multicycle burnup effect based on the generalized perturbation theory (GPT). A new encapsulation framework for conventional codes written in Fortran was developed. This framework supported to restructure the software architecture of the old code system by hiding implementation details and allowed users of the new code system to easily calculate the burnup sensitivity coefficients. The framework can be applied to the other development projects since it is carefully designed to be independent from PSAGEP. Numerical results of the burnup sensitivity coefficient of a typical fast breeder reactor were given with components based on GPT and the multicycle burnup effects on the sensitivity coefficient were discussed. (authors)

  10. Sensitivity analysis of longitudinal cracking on asphalt pavement using MEPDG in permafrost region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chen Zhang

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Longitudinal cracking is one of the most important distresses of asphalt pavement in permafrost regions. The sensitivity analysis of design parameters for asphalt pavement can be used to study the influence of every parameter on longitudinal cracking, which can help optimizing the design of the pavement structure. In this study, 20 test sections of Qinghai–Tibet Highway were selected to conduct the sensitivity analysis of longitudinal cracking on material parameter based on Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guide (MEPDG and single factorial sensitivity analysis method. Some computer aided engineering (CAE simulation techniques, such as the Latin hypercube sampling (LHS technique and the multiple regression analysis are used as auxiliary means. Finally, the sensitivity spectrum of material parameter on longitudinal cracking was established. The result shows the multiple regression analysis can be used to determine the remarkable influence factor more efficiently and to process the qualitative analysis when applying the MEPDG software in sensitivity analysis of longitudinal cracking in permafrost regions. The effect weights of the three parameters on longitudinal cracking in descending order are air void, effective binder content and PG grade. The influence of air void on top layer is bigger than that on middle layer and bottom layer. The influence of effective asphalt content on top layer is bigger than that on middle layer and bottom layer, and the influence of bottom layer is slightly bigger than middle layer. The accumulated value of longitudinal cracking on middle layer and bottom layer in the design life would begin to increase when the design temperature of PG grade increased.

  11. Supplementary Material for: A global sensitivity analysis approach for morphogenesis models

    KAUST Repository

    Boas, Sonja; Navarro, Marí a; Merks, Roeland; Blom, Joke

    2015-01-01

    ) represent cell properties and behaviors that drive the mechanisms of angiogenic sprouting. The global sensitivity analysis correctly identified the dominant parameters in the model, consistent with previous studies. Additionally, the analysis provided

  12. Least Squares Shadowing Sensitivity Analysis of Chaotic Flow Around a Two-Dimensional Airfoil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blonigan, Patrick J.; Wang, Qiqi; Nielsen, Eric J.; Diskin, Boris

    2016-01-01

    Gradient-based sensitivity analysis has proven to be an enabling technology for many applications, including design of aerospace vehicles. However, conventional sensitivity analysis methods break down when applied to long-time averages of chaotic systems. This breakdown is a serious limitation because many aerospace applications involve physical phenomena that exhibit chaotic dynamics, most notably high-resolution large-eddy and direct numerical simulations of turbulent aerodynamic flows. A recently proposed methodology, Least Squares Shadowing (LSS), avoids this breakdown and advances the state of the art in sensitivity analysis for chaotic flows. The first application of LSS to a chaotic flow simulated with a large-scale computational fluid dynamics solver is presented. The LSS sensitivity computed for this chaotic flow is verified and shown to be accurate, but the computational cost of the current LSS implementation is high.

  13. A method of the sensitivity analysis of build-up and decay of actinides

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mitani, Hiroshi; Koyama, Kinji; Kuroi, Hideo

    1977-07-01

    To make sensitivity analysis of build-up and decay of actinides, mathematical methods related to this problem have been investigated in detail. Application of time-dependent perturbation technique and Bateman method to sensitivity analysis is mainly studied. For the purpose, a basic equation and its adjoint equation for build-up and decay of actinides are systematically solved by introducing Laplace and modified Laplace transforms and their convolution theorems. Then, the mathematical method of sensitivity analyses is formulated by the above technique; its physical significance is also discussed. Finally, application of eigenvalue-method is investigated. Sensitivity coefficients can be directly calculated by this method. (auth.)

  14. Sensitivity/uncertainty analysis of a borehole scenario comparing Latin Hypercube Sampling and deterministic sensitivity approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harper, W.V.; Gupta, S.K.

    1983-10-01

    A computer code was used to study steady-state flow for a hypothetical borehole scenario. The model consists of three coupled equations with only eight parameters and three dependent variables. This study focused on steady-state flow as the performance measure of interest. Two different approaches to sensitivity/uncertainty analysis were used on this code. One approach, based on Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS), is a statistical sampling method, whereas, the second approach is based on the deterministic evaluation of sensitivities. The LHS technique is easy to apply and should work well for codes with a moderate number of parameters. Of deterministic techniques, the direct method is preferred when there are many performance measures of interest and a moderate number of parameters. The adjoint method is recommended when there are a limited number of performance measures and an unlimited number of parameters. This unlimited number of parameters capability can be extremely useful for finite element or finite difference codes with a large number of grid blocks. The Office of Nuclear Waste Isolation will use the technique most appropriate for an individual situation. For example, the adjoint method may be used to reduce the scope to a size that can be readily handled by a technique such as LHS. Other techniques for sensitivity/uncertainty analysis, e.g., kriging followed by conditional simulation, will be used also. 15 references, 4 figures, 9 tables

  15. Bayesian Sensitivity Analysis of a Nonlinear Dynamic Factor Analysis Model with Nonparametric Prior and Possible Nonignorable Missingness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Niansheng; Chow, Sy-Miin; Ibrahim, Joseph G; Zhu, Hongtu

    2017-12-01

    Many psychological concepts are unobserved and usually represented as latent factors apprehended through multiple observed indicators. When multiple-subject multivariate time series data are available, dynamic factor analysis models with random effects offer one way of modeling patterns of within- and between-person variations by combining factor analysis and time series analysis at the factor level. Using the Dirichlet process (DP) as a nonparametric prior for individual-specific time series parameters further allows the distributional forms of these parameters to deviate from commonly imposed (e.g., normal or other symmetric) functional forms, arising as a result of these parameters' restricted ranges. Given the complexity of such models, a thorough sensitivity analysis is critical but computationally prohibitive. We propose a Bayesian local influence method that allows for simultaneous sensitivity analysis of multiple modeling components within a single fitting of the model of choice. Five illustrations and an empirical example are provided to demonstrate the utility of the proposed approach in facilitating the detection of outlying cases and common sources of misspecification in dynamic factor analysis models, as well as identification of modeling components that are sensitive to changes in the DP prior specification.

  16. A tool model for predicting atmospheric kinetics with sensitivity analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    A package( a tool model) for program of predicting atmospheric chemical kinetics with sensitivity analysis is presented. The new direct method of calculating the first order sensitivity coefficients using sparse matrix technology to chemical kinetics is included in the tool model, it is only necessary to triangularize the matrix related to the Jacobian matrix of the model equation. The Gear type procedure is used to integrate amodel equation and its coupled auxiliary sensitivity coefficient equations. The FORTRAN subroutines of the model equation, the sensitivity coefficient equations, and their Jacobian analytical expressions are generated automatically from a chemical mechanism. The kinetic representation for the model equation and its sensitivity coefficient equations, and their Jacobian matrix is presented. Various FORTRAN subroutines in packages, such as SLODE, modified MA28, Gear package, with which the program runs in conjunction are recommended.The photo-oxidation of dimethyl disulfide is used for illustration.

  17. Sensitivity analysis on retardation effect of natural barriers against radionuclide transport

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hatanaka, K.

    1994-01-01

    The generic performance assessment of the geological disposal system for high level waste (HLW) in Japan has been carried out by the Power Reactor and Nuclear Fuel Development Corporation (PNC) in accordance with the overall HLW management program defined by the Atomic Energy Commission of Japan. The Japanese concept of the geological disposal system is based on a multi-barrier system which is composed of vitrified waste, carbon steel overpack, thick bentonite buffer and a variety of realistic geological conditions. The main objectives of the study are the detailed analysis of the performance of engineered barrier system (EBS) and the analysis of the performance of natural barrier system (NBS) and the evaluation of its compliance with the required overall system performance. Sensitivity analysis was carried out for the objectives to investigate the way and extent of the retardation in the release to biosphere by the effect of NBS, and to clarify the conditions which is sufficient to ensure that the overall system meets safety requirement. The radionuclide transport model in geological media, the sensitivity analysis, and the calculated results of the retardation effect of NBS in terms of the sensitivity parameters are reported. (K.I.)

  18. Supplementary Material for: A global sensitivity analysis approach for morphogenesis models

    KAUST Repository

    Boas, Sonja

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Background Morphogenesis is a developmental process in which cells organize into shapes and patterns. Complex, non-linear and multi-factorial models with images as output are commonly used to study morphogenesis. It is difficult to understand the relation between the uncertainty in the input and the output of such ‘black-box’ models, giving rise to the need for sensitivity analysis tools. In this paper, we introduce a workflow for a global sensitivity analysis approach to study the impact of single parameters and the interactions between them on the output of morphogenesis models. Results To demonstrate the workflow, we used a published, well-studied model of vascular morphogenesis. The parameters of this cellular Potts model (CPM) represent cell properties and behaviors that drive the mechanisms of angiogenic sprouting. The global sensitivity analysis correctly identified the dominant parameters in the model, consistent with previous studies. Additionally, the analysis provided information on the relative impact of single parameters and of interactions between them. This is very relevant because interactions of parameters impede the experimental verification of the predicted effect of single parameters. The parameter interactions, although of low impact, provided also new insights in the mechanisms of in silico sprouting. Finally, the analysis indicated that the model could be reduced by one parameter. Conclusions We propose global sensitivity analysis as an alternative approach to study the mechanisms of morphogenesis. Comparison of the ranking of the impact of the model parameters to knowledge derived from experimental data and from manipulation experiments can help to falsify models and to find the operand mechanisms in morphogenesis. The workflow is applicable to all ‘black-box’ models, including high-throughput in vitro models in which output measures are affected by a set of experimental perturbations.

  19. Sensitivity analysis of the Ohio phosphorus risk index

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Phosphorus (P) Index is a widely used tool for assessing the vulnerability of agricultural fields to P loss; yet, few of the P Indices developed in the U.S. have been evaluated for their accuracy. Sensitivity analysis is one approach that can be used prior to calibration and field-scale testing ...

  20. Sensitivity analysis of physiochemical interaction model: which pair ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... of two model parameters at a time on the solution trajectory of physiochemical interaction over a time interval. Our aim is to use this powerful mathematical technique to select the important pair of parameters of this physical process which is cost-effective. Keywords: Passivation Rate, Sensitivity Analysis, ODE23, ODE45 ...