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Sample records for response model based

  1. Model Predictive Control based on Finite Impulse Response Models

    Prasath, Guru; Jørgensen, John Bagterp

    2008-01-01

    We develop a regularized l2 finite impulse response (FIR) predictive controller with input and input-rate constraints. Feedback is based on a simple constant output disturbance filter. The performance of the predictive controller in the face of plant-model mismatch is investigated by simulations...... and related to the uncertainty of the impulse response coefficients. The simulations can be used to benchmark l2 MPC against FIR based robust MPC as well as to estimate the maximum performance improvements by robust MPC....

  2. The Fundamentals of a Business Model Based on Responsible Investments

    Vadim Dumitrascu

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The harmonization of profitability and social responsibility is possible under the adoption and practice conditions by the companies of some adequate business models. “Responsible profitability” must benefit as well of management tools that guide the business sequentially, based on some objective decision making criteria towards sustainable economic behaviors. The simultaneous increase of the specific economic over-value generated by social responsible investment (SRI project and responsible intensity of economic employment reflects the company’s strong subscription to the authentic sustainable development path.

  3. Model-Based Collaborative Filtering Analysis of Student Response Data: Machine-Learning Item Response Theory

    Bergner, Yoav; Droschler, Stefan; Kortemeyer, Gerd; Rayyan, Saif; Seaton, Daniel; Pritchard, David E.

    2012-01-01

    We apply collaborative filtering (CF) to dichotomously scored student response data (right, wrong, or no interaction), finding optimal parameters for each student and item based on cross-validated prediction accuracy. The approach is naturally suited to comparing different models, both unidimensional and multidimensional in ability, including a…

  4. Limited information estimation of the diffusion-based item response theory model for responses and response times.

    Ranger, Jochen; Kuhn, Jörg-Tobias; Szardenings, Carsten

    2016-05-01

    Psychological tests are usually analysed with item response models. Recently, some alternative measurement models have been proposed that were derived from cognitive process models developed in experimental psychology. These models consider the responses but also the response times of the test takers. Two such models are the Q-diffusion model and the D-diffusion model. Both models can be calibrated with the diffIRT package of the R statistical environment via marginal maximum likelihood (MML) estimation. In this manuscript, an alternative approach to model calibration is proposed. The approach is based on weighted least squares estimation and parallels the standard estimation approach in structural equation modelling. Estimates are determined by minimizing the discrepancy between the observed and the implied covariance matrix. The estimator is simple to implement, consistent, and asymptotically normally distributed. Least squares estimation also provides a test of model fit by comparing the observed and implied covariance matrix. The estimator and the test of model fit are evaluated in a simulation study. Although parameter recovery is good, the estimator is less efficient than the MML estimator. © 2016 The British Psychological Society.

  5. ENVIRONMENTAL RESPONSIBILITY MODEL BASED ON ISO 14000 MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS

    Catalina SITNIKOV

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Worldwide corporations, as well as their stakeholders, are more conscious of the need for environmental management, SR behaviour, and sustainable growth and development. International Standards are becoming more significant for corporations to work towards common environmental management practices. ISO 14001 is the first and the broadest standard intended at a more responsible approach of corporations and the world’s most acknowledged framework for environmental management systems that assists corporations to better manage the effect of their activities on the environment. This article aims to study ISO 14001 implementation and its effects on the environmental responsibility. A model will be built, which covers the environmental management system, the components of organizational culture, being able to influence environmental standards implementation.

  6. ENVIRONMENTAL RESPONSIBILITY MODEL BASED ON ISO 14000 MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS

    Catalina SITNIKOV

    2012-01-01

    Worldwide corporations, as well as their stakeholders, are more conscious of the need for environmental management, SR behaviour, and sustainable growth and development. International Standards are becoming more significant for corporations to work towards common environmental management practices. ISO 14001 is the first and the broadest standard intended at a more responsible approach of corporations and the world’s most acknowledged framework for environmental management systems that assist...

  7. Teaching Personal and Social Responsibility Model-Based Programmes in Physical Education: A Systematic Review

    Pozo, Pablo; Grao-Cruces, Alberto; Pérez-Ordás, Raquel

    2018-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to conduct a review of research on the Teaching Personal and Social Responsibility model-based programme within physical education. Papers selected for analysis were found through searches of Web of Science, SportDiscus (EBSCO), SCOPUS, and ERIC (ProQuest) databases. The keywords "responsibility model" and…

  8. Teachers' Knowledge Base for Implementing Response-to-Intervention Models in Reading

    Spear-Swerling, Louise; Cheesman, Elaine

    2012-01-01

    This study examined the knowledge base of 142 elementary-level educators for implementing response-to-intervention (RTI) models in reading. A questionnaire assessed participants' professional background for teaching reading, as well as their familiarity with specific assessments, research-based instructional models, and interventions potentially…

  9. Agent-based modeling of endotoxin-induced acute inflammatory response in human blood leukocytes.

    Dong, Xu; Foteinou, Panagiota T; Calvano, Steven E; Lowry, Stephen F; Androulakis, Ioannis P

    2010-02-18

    Inflammation is a highly complex biological response evoked by many stimuli. A persistent challenge in modeling this dynamic process has been the (nonlinear) nature of the response that precludes the single-variable assumption. Systems-based approaches offer a promising possibility for understanding inflammation in its homeostatic context. In order to study the underlying complexity of the acute inflammatory response, an agent-based framework is developed that models the emerging host response as the outcome of orchestrated interactions associated with intricate signaling cascades and intercellular immune system interactions. An agent-based modeling (ABM) framework is proposed to study the nonlinear dynamics of acute human inflammation. The model is implemented using NetLogo software. Interacting agents involve either inflammation-specific molecules or cells essential for the propagation of the inflammatory reaction across the system. Spatial orientation of molecule interactions involved in signaling cascades coupled with the cellular heterogeneity are further taken into account. The proposed in silico model is evaluated through its ability to successfully reproduce a self-limited inflammatory response as well as a series of scenarios indicative of the nonlinear dynamics of the response. Such scenarios involve either a persistent (non)infectious response or innate immune tolerance and potentiation effects followed by perturbations in intracellular signaling molecules and cascades. The ABM framework developed in this study provides insight on the stochastic interactions of the mediators involved in the propagation of endotoxin signaling at the cellular response level. The simulation results are in accordance with our prior research effort associated with the development of deterministic human inflammation models that include transcriptional dynamics, signaling, and physiological components. The hypothetical scenarios explored in this study would potentially improve

  10. Model-based analysis of postprandial glycemic response dynamics for different types of food

    Yvonne J. Rozendaal

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Summary: Background & aims: Knowledge of postprandial glycemic response (PPGR dynamics is important in nutrition management and diabetes research, care and (selfmanagement. In daily life, food intake is the most important factor influencing the occurrence of hyperglycemia. However, the large variability in PPGR dynamics to different types of food is inadequately predicted by existing glycemic measures. The objective of this study was therefore to quantitatively describe PPGR dynamics using a systems approach. Methods: Postprandial glucose and insulin data were collected from literature for many different food products and mixed meals. The predictive value of existing measures, such as the Glycemic Index, was evaluated. A physiology-based dynamic model was used to reconstruct the full postprandial response profiles of both glucose and insulin simultaneously. Results: We collected a large range of postprandial glucose and insulin dynamics for 53 common food products and mixed meals. Currently available glycemic measures were found to be inadequate to describe the heterogeneity in postprandial dynamics. By estimating model parameters from glucose and insulin data, the physiology-based dynamic model accurately describes the measured data whilst adhering to physiological constraints. Conclusions: The physiology-based dynamic model provides a systematic framework to analyze postprandial glucose and insulin profiles. By changing parameter values the model can be adjusted to simulate impaired glucose tolerance and insulin resistance. Keywords: Postprandial glycemic response, Physiology-based dynamic model, Food intake, Computational modeling, Glucose, Insulin

  11. Model-based synthesis of locally contingent responses to global market signals

    Magliocca, N. R.

    2015-12-01

    Rural livelihoods and the land systems on which they depend are increasingly influenced by distant markets through economic globalization. Place-based analyses of land and livelihood system sustainability must then consider both proximate and distant influences on local decision-making. Thus, advancing land change theory in the context of economic globalization calls for a systematic understanding of the general processes as well as local contingencies shaping local responses to global signals. Synthesis of insights from place-based case studies of land and livelihood change is a path forward for developing such systematic knowledge. This paper introduces a model-based synthesis approach to investigating the influence of local socio-environmental and agent-level factors in mediating land-use and livelihood responses to changing global market signals. A generalized agent-based modeling framework is applied to six case-study sites that differ in environmental conditions, market access and influence, and livelihood settings. The largest modeled land conversions and livelihood transitions to market-oriented production occurred in sties with relatively productive agricultural land and/or with limited livelihood options. Experimental shifts in the distributions of agents' risk tolerances generally acted to attenuate or amplify responses to changes in global market signals. Importantly, however, responses of agents at different points in the risk tolerance distribution varied widely, with the wealth gap growing wider between agents with higher or lower risk tolerance. These results demonstrate model-based synthesis is a promising approach to overcome many of the challenges of current synthesis methods in land change science, and to identify generalized as well as locally contingent responses to global market signals.

  12. Modelling of tomato stem diameter growth rate based on physiological responses

    Li, L.; Tan, J.; Lv, T.

    2017-01-01

    The stem diameter is an important parameter describing the growth of tomato plant during vegetative growth stage. A stem diameter growth model was developed to predict the response of plant growth under different conditions. By analyzing the diurnal variations of stem diameter in tomato (Solanum lycopersicum L.), it was found that the stem diameter measured at 3:00 am was the representative value as the daily basis of tomato stem diameter. Based on the responses of growth rate in stem diameter to light and temperature, a linear regression relationship was applied to establish the stem diameter growth rate prediction model for the vegetative growth stage in tomato and which was further validated by experiment. The root mean square error (RMSE) and relative error (RE) were used to test the correlation between measured and modeled stem diameter variations. Results showed that the model can be used in prediction for stem diameter growth rate at vegetative growth stage in tomato. (author)

  13. Analytic models of spectral responses of fiber-grating-based interferometers on FMC theory.

    Zeng, Xiangkai; Wei, Lai; Pan, Yingjun; Liu, Shengping; Shi, Xiaohui

    2012-02-13

    In this paper the analytic models (AMs) of the spectral responses of fiber-grating-based interferometers are derived from the Fourier mode coupling (FMC) theory proposed recently. The interferometers include Fabry-Perot cavity, Mach-Zehnder and Michelson interferometers, which are constructed by uniform fiber Bragg gratings and long-period fiber gratings, and also by Gaussian-apodized ones. The calculated spectra based on the analytic models are achieved, and compared with the measured cases and those on the transfer matrix (TM) method. The calculations and comparisons have confirmed that the AM-based spectrum is in excellent agreement with the TM-based one and the measured case, of which the efficiency is improved up to ~2990 times that of the TM method for non-uniform-grating-based in-fiber interferometers.

  14. Model-based flaw localization from perturbations in the dynamic response of complex mechanical structures

    Chambers, D H

    2009-02-24

    A new method of locating structural damage using measured differences in vibrational response and a numerical model of the undamaged structure has been presented. This method is particularly suited for complex structures with little or no symmetry. In a prior study the method successively located simulated damage from measurements of the vibrational response on two simple structures. Here we demonstrate that it can locate simulated damage in a complex structure. A numerical model of a complex structure was used to calculate the structural response before and after the introduction of a void. The method can now be considered for application to structures of programmatic interest. It could be used to monitor the structural integrity of complex mechanical structures and assemblies over their lifetimes. This would allow early detection of damage, when repair is relatively easy and inexpensive. It would also allow one to schedule maintenance based on actual damage instead of a time schedule.

  15. A Bifactor Multidimensional Item Response Theory Model for Differential Item Functioning Analysis on Testlet-Based Items

    Fukuhara, Hirotaka; Kamata, Akihito

    2011-01-01

    A differential item functioning (DIF) detection method for testlet-based data was proposed and evaluated in this study. The proposed DIF model is an extension of a bifactor multidimensional item response theory (MIRT) model for testlets. Unlike traditional item response theory (IRT) DIF models, the proposed model takes testlet effects into…

  16. Antitumour responses induced by a cell-based Reovirus vaccine in murine lung and melanoma models

    Campion, Ciorsdan A.; Soden, Declan; Forde, Patrick F.

    2016-01-01

    The ever increasing knowledge in the areas of cell biology, the immune system and the mechanisms of cancer are allowing a new phase of immunotherapy to develop. The aim of cancer vaccination is to activate the host immune system and some success has been observed particularly in the use of the BCG vaccine for bladder cancer as an immunostimulant. Reovirus, an orphan virus, has proven itself as an oncolytic virus in vitro and in vivo. Over 80 % of tumour cell lines have been found to be susceptible to Reovirus infection and it is currently in phase III clinical trials. It has been shown to induce immune responses to tumours with very low toxicities. In this study, Reovirus was examined in two main approaches in vivo, in mice, using the melanoma B16F10 and Lewis Lung Carcinoma (LLC) models. Initially, mice were treated intratumourally (IT) with Reovirus and the immune responses determined by cytokine analysis. Mice were also vaccinated using a cell-based Reovirus vaccine and subsequently exposed to a tumourigenic dose of cells (B16F10 or LLC). Using the same cell-based Reovirus vaccine, established tumours were treated and subsequent immune responses and virus retrieval investigated. Upregulation of several cytokines was observed following treatment and replication-competent virus was also retrieved from treated tumours. Varying levels of cytokine upregulation were observed and no replication-competent virus was retrieved in vaccine-treated mice. Prolongation of survival and delayed tumour growth were observed in all models and an immune response to Reovirus, either using Reovirus alone or a cell-based vaccine was also observed in all mice. This study provides evidence of immune response to tumours using a cell-based Reovirus vaccine in both tumour models investigated, B16F10 and LLC, cytokine induction was observed with prolongation of survival in almost all cases which may suggest a new method for using Reovirus in the clinic

  17. Mechanism-Based Modeling of Gastric Emptying Rate and Gallbladder Emptying in Response to Caloric Intake

    Guiastrennec, B; Sonne, David Peick; Hansen, M

    2016-01-01

    Bile acids released postprandially modify the rate and extent of absorption of lipophilic compounds. The present study aimed to predict gastric emptying (GE) rate and gallbladder emptying (GBE) patterns in response to caloric intake. A mechanism-based model for GE, cholecystokinin plasma concentr......Bile acids released postprandially modify the rate and extent of absorption of lipophilic compounds. The present study aimed to predict gastric emptying (GE) rate and gallbladder emptying (GBE) patterns in response to caloric intake. A mechanism-based model for GE, cholecystokinin plasma...... concentrations, and GBE was developed on data from 33 patients with type 2 diabetes and 33 matched nondiabetic individuals who were administered various test drinks. A feedback action of the caloric content entering the proximal small intestine was identified for the rate of GE. The cholecystokinin...

  18. Modeling T cell antigen discrimination based on feedback control of digital ERK responses.

    2005-11-01

    Full Text Available T-lymphocyte activation displays a remarkable combination of speed, sensitivity, and discrimination in response to peptide-major histocompatibility complex (pMHC ligand engagement of clonally distributed antigen receptors (T cell receptors or TCRs. Even a few foreign pMHCs on the surface of an antigen-presenting cell trigger effective signaling within seconds, whereas 1 x 10(5-1 x 10(6 self-pMHC ligands that may differ from the foreign stimulus by only a single amino acid fail to elicit this response. No existing model accounts for this nearly absolute distinction between closely related TCR ligands while also preserving the other canonical features of T-cell responses. Here we document the unexpected highly amplified and digital nature of extracellular signal-regulated kinase (ERK activation in T cells. Based on this observation and evidence that competing positive- and negative-feedback loops contribute to TCR ligand discrimination, we constructed a new mathematical model of proximal TCR-dependent signaling. The model made clear that competition between a digital positive feedback based on ERK activity and an analog negative feedback involving SH2 domain-containing tyrosine phosphatase (SHP-1 was critical for defining a sharp ligand-discrimination threshold while preserving a rapid and sensitive response. Several nontrivial predictions of this model, including the notion that this threshold is highly sensitive to small changes in SHP-1 expression levels during cellular differentiation, were confirmed by experiment. These results combining computation and experiment reveal that ligand discrimination by T cells is controlled by the dynamics of competing feedback loops that regulate a high-gain digital amplifier, which is itself modulated during differentiation by alterations in the intracellular concentrations of key enzymes. The organization of the signaling network that we model here may be a prototypic solution to the problem of achieving

  19. Improved utilization of ADAS-cog assessment data through item response theory based pharmacometric modeling.

    Ueckert, Sebastian; Plan, Elodie L; Ito, Kaori; Karlsson, Mats O; Corrigan, Brian; Hooker, Andrew C

    2014-08-01

    This work investigates improved utilization of ADAS-cog data (the primary outcome in Alzheimer's disease (AD) trials of mild and moderate AD) by combining pharmacometric modeling and item response theory (IRT). A baseline IRT model characterizing the ADAS-cog was built based on data from 2,744 individuals. Pharmacometric methods were used to extend the baseline IRT model to describe longitudinal ADAS-cog scores from an 18-month clinical study with 322 patients. Sensitivity of the ADAS-cog items in different patient populations as well as the power to detect a drug effect in relation to total score based methods were assessed with the IRT based model. IRT analysis was able to describe both total and item level baseline ADAS-cog data. Longitudinal data were also well described. Differences in the information content of the item level components could be quantitatively characterized and ranked for mild cognitively impairment and mild AD populations. Based on clinical trial simulations with a theoretical drug effect, the IRT method demonstrated a significantly higher power to detect drug effect compared to the traditional method of analysis. A combined framework of IRT and pharmacometric modeling permits a more effective and precise analysis than total score based methods and therefore increases the value of ADAS-cog data.

  20. A voxel-based multiscale model to simulate the radiation response of hypoxic tumors.

    Espinoza, I; Peschke, P; Karger, C P

    2015-01-01

    In radiotherapy, it is important to predict the response of tumors to irradiation prior to the treatment. This is especially important for hypoxic tumors, which are known to be highly radioresistant. Mathematical modeling based on the dose distribution, biological parameters, and medical images may help to improve this prediction and to optimize the treatment plan. A voxel-based multiscale tumor response model for simulating the radiation response of hypoxic tumors was developed. It considers viable and dead tumor cells, capillary and normal cells, as well as the most relevant biological processes such as (i) proliferation of tumor cells, (ii) hypoxia-induced angiogenesis, (iii) spatial exchange of cells leading to tumor growth, (iv) oxygen-dependent cell survival after irradiation, (v) resorption of dead cells, and (vi) spatial exchange of cells leading to tumor shrinkage. Oxygenation is described on a microscopic scale using a previously published tumor oxygenation model, which calculates the oxygen distribution for each voxel using the vascular fraction as the most important input parameter. To demonstrate the capabilities of the model, the dependence of the oxygen distribution on tumor growth and radiation-induced shrinkage is investigated. In addition, the impact of three different reoxygenation processes is compared and tumor control probability (TCP) curves for a squamous cells carcinoma of the head and neck (HNSSC) are simulated under normoxic and hypoxic conditions. The model describes the spatiotemporal behavior of the tumor on three different scales: (i) on the macroscopic scale, it describes tumor growth and shrinkage during radiation treatment, (ii) on a mesoscopic scale, it provides the cell density and vascular fraction for each voxel, and (iii) on the microscopic scale, the oxygen distribution may be obtained in terms of oxygen histograms. With increasing tumor size, the simulated tumors develop a hypoxic core. Within the model, tumor shrinkage was

  1. A voxel-based multiscale model to simulate the radiation response of hypoxic tumors

    Espinoza, I.; Peschke, P.; Karger, C. P.

    2015-01-01

    Purpose: In radiotherapy, it is important to predict the response of tumors to irradiation prior to the treatment. This is especially important for hypoxic tumors, which are known to be highly radioresistant. Mathematical modeling based on the dose distribution, biological parameters, and medical images may help to improve this prediction and to optimize the treatment plan. Methods: A voxel-based multiscale tumor response model for simulating the radiation response of hypoxic tumors was developed. It considers viable and dead tumor cells, capillary and normal cells, as well as the most relevant biological processes such as (i) proliferation of tumor cells, (ii) hypoxia-induced angiogenesis, (iii) spatial exchange of cells leading to tumor growth, (iv) oxygen-dependent cell survival after irradiation, (v) resorption of dead cells, and (vi) spatial exchange of cells leading to tumor shrinkage. Oxygenation is described on a microscopic scale using a previously published tumor oxygenation model, which calculates the oxygen distribution for each voxel using the vascular fraction as the most important input parameter. To demonstrate the capabilities of the model, the dependence of the oxygen distribution on tumor growth and radiation-induced shrinkage is investigated. In addition, the impact of three different reoxygenation processes is compared and tumor control probability (TCP) curves for a squamous cells carcinoma of the head and neck (HNSSC) are simulated under normoxic and hypoxic conditions. Results: The model describes the spatiotemporal behavior of the tumor on three different scales: (i) on the macroscopic scale, it describes tumor growth and shrinkage during radiation treatment, (ii) on a mesoscopic scale, it provides the cell density and vascular fraction for each voxel, and (iii) on the microscopic scale, the oxygen distribution may be obtained in terms of oxygen histograms. With increasing tumor size, the simulated tumors develop a hypoxic core. Within the

  2. A Response Surface-Based Cost Model for Wind Farm Design

    Zhang Jie; Chowdhury, Souma; Messac, Achille; Castillo, Luciano

    2012-01-01

    A Response Surface-Based Wind Farm Cost (RS-WFC) model is developed for the engineering planning of wind farms. The RS-WFC model is developed using Extended Radial Basis Functions (E-RBF) for onshore wind farms in the U.S. This model is then used to explore the influences of different design and economic parameters, including number of turbines, rotor diameter and labor cost, on the cost of a wind farm. The RS-WFC model is composed of three components that estimate the effects of engineering and economic factors on (i) the installation cost, (ii) the annual Operation and Maintenance (O and M) cost, and (iii) the total annual cost of a wind farm. The accuracy of the cost model is favorably established through comparison with pertinent commercial data. The final RS-WFC model provided interesting insights into cost variation with respect to critical engineering and economic parameters. In addition, a newly developed analytical wind farm engineering model is used to determine the power generated by the farm, and the subsequent Cost of Energy (COE). This COE is optimized for a unidirectional uniform “incoming wind speed” scenario using Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO). We found that the COE could be appreciably minimized through layout optimization, thereby yielding significant cost savings. - Highlights: ► We present a Response Surface-Based Wind Farm Cost (RS-WFC) model for wind farm design. ► The model could estimate installation cost, Operation and Maintenance cost, and total annual cost of a wind farm. ► The Cost of Energy is optimized using Particle Swarm Optimization. ► Layout optimization could yield significant cost savings.

  3. Developing Environmentally Responsible Behaviours Through the Implementation of Argumentation- and Problem-Based Learning Models

    Fettahlıoğlu, Pınar; Aydoğdu, Mustafa

    2018-04-01

    The purpose of this research is to investigate the effect of using argumentation and problem-based learning approaches on the development of environmentally responsible behaviours among pre-service science teachers. Experimental activities were implemented for 14 weeks for 52 class hours in an environmental education class within a science teaching department. A mixed method was used as a research design; particularly, a special type of Concurrent Nested Strategy was applied. The quantitative portion was based on the one-group pre-test and post-test models, and the qualitative portion was based on the holistic multiple-case study method. The quantitative portion of the research was conducted with 34 third-year pre-service science teachers studying at a state university. The qualitative portion of the study was conducted with six pre-service science teachers selected among the 34 pre-service science teachers based on the pre-test results obtained from an environmentally responsible behaviour scale. t tests for dependent groups were used to analyse quantitative data. Both descriptive and content analyses of the qualitative data were performed. The results of the study showed that the use of the argumentation and problem-based learning approaches significantly contributed to the development of environmentally responsible behaviours among pre-service science teachers.

  4. A microcantilever-based alcohol vapor sensor-application and response model

    Jensenius, Henriette; Thaysen, Jacob; Rasmussen, Anette Alsted

    2000-01-01

    A recently developed microcantilever probe with integrated piezoresistive readout has been applied as a gas sensor. Resistors, sensitive to stress changes, are integrated on the flexible cantilevers. This makes it possible to monitor the cantilever deflection electrically and with an integrated...... is a direct measure of the molecular concentration of alcohol vapor. On the basis of the model the detection limit of this cantilever-based sensor is determined to be below 10 ppm for alcohol vapor measurements. Furthermore, the time response of the cantilever can be used to distinguish between different...

  5. The evaluation of distributed damage in concrete based on sinusoidal modeling of the ultrasonic response.

    Sepehrinezhad, Alireza; Toufigh, Vahab

    2018-05-25

    Ultrasonic wave attenuation is an effective descriptor of distributed damage in inhomogeneous materials. Methods developed to measure wave attenuation have the potential to provide an in-site evaluation of existing concrete structures insofar as they are accurate and time-efficient. In this study, material classification and distributed damage evaluation were investigated based on the sinusoidal modeling of the response from the through-transmission ultrasonic tests on polymer concrete specimens. The response signal was modeled as single or the sum of damping sinusoids. Due to the inhomogeneous nature of concrete materials, model parameters may vary from one specimen to another. Therefore, these parameters are not known in advance and should be estimated while the response signal is being received. The modeling procedure used in this study involves a data-adaptive algorithm to estimate the parameters online. Data-adaptive algorithms are used due to a lack of knowledge of the model parameters. The damping factor was estimated as a descriptor of the distributed damage. The results were compared in two different cases as follows: (1) constant excitation frequency with varying concrete mixtures and (2) constant mixture with varying excitation frequencies. The specimens were also loaded up to their ultimate compressive strength to investigate the effect of distributed damage in the response signal. The results of the estimation indicated that the damping was highly sensitive to the change in material inhomogeneity, even in comparable mixtures. In addition to the proposed method, three methods were employed to compare the results based on their accuracy in the classification of materials and the evaluation of the distributed damage. It is shown that the estimated damping factor is not only sensitive to damage in the final stages of loading, but it is also applicable in evaluating micro damages in the earlier stages providing a reliable descriptor of damage. In addition

  6. Comparative investigation of ELM control based on toroidal modelling of plasma response to RMP fields

    Liu, Yueqiang

    2016-10-01

    The type-I edge localized mode (ELM), bursting at low frequency and with large amplitude, can channel a substantial amount of the plasma thermal energy into the surrounding plasma-facing components in tokamak devices operating at the high-confinement mode, potentially causing severe material damages. Learning effective ways of controlling this instability is thus an urgent issue in fusion research, in particular in view of the next generation large devices such as ITER and DEMO. Among other means, externally applied, three-dimensional resonant magnetic perturbation (RMP) fields have been experimentally demonstrated to be successful in mitigating or suppressing the type-I ELM, in multiple existing devices. In this work, we shall report results of a comparative study of ELM control using RMPs. Comparison is made between the modelled plasma response to the 3D external fields and the observed change of the ELM behaviour on multiple devices, including MAST, ASDEX Upgrade, EAST, DIII-D, JET, and KSTAR. We show that toroidal modelling of the plasma response, based on linear and quasi-linear magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models, provides essential insights that are useful in interpreting and guiding the ELM control experiments. In particular, linear toroidal modelling results, using the MARS-F code, reveal the crucial role of the edge localized peeling-tearing mode response during ELM mitigation/suppression on all these devices. Such response often leads to strong peaking of the plasma surface displacement near the region of weak equilibrium poloidal field (e.g. the X-point), and this provides an alternative practical criterion for ELM control, as opposed to the vacuum field based Chirikov criteria. Quasi-linear modelling using MARS-Q provides quantitative interpretation of the side effects due to the ELM control coils, on the plasma toroidal momentum and particle confinements. The particular role of the momentum and particle fluxes, associated with the neoclassical toroidal

  7. Blinded prospective evaluation of computer-based mechanistic schizophrenia disease model for predicting drug response.

    Hugo Geerts

    Full Text Available The tremendous advances in understanding the neurobiological circuits involved in schizophrenia have not translated into more effective treatments. An alternative strategy is to use a recently published 'Quantitative Systems Pharmacology' computer-based mechanistic disease model of cortical/subcortical and striatal circuits based upon preclinical physiology, human pathology and pharmacology. The physiology of 27 relevant dopamine, serotonin, acetylcholine, norepinephrine, gamma-aminobutyric acid (GABA and glutamate-mediated targets is calibrated using retrospective clinical data on 24 different antipsychotics. The model was challenged to predict quantitatively the clinical outcome in a blinded fashion of two experimental antipsychotic drugs; JNJ37822681, a highly selective low-affinity dopamine D(2 antagonist and ocaperidone, a very high affinity dopamine D(2 antagonist, using only pharmacology and human positron emission tomography (PET imaging data. The model correctly predicted the lower performance of JNJ37822681 on the positive and negative syndrome scale (PANSS total score and the higher extra-pyramidal symptom (EPS liability compared to olanzapine and the relative performance of ocaperidone against olanzapine, but did not predict the absolute PANSS total score outcome and EPS liability for ocaperidone, possibly due to placebo responses and EPS assessment methods. Because of its virtual nature, this modeling approach can support central nervous system research and development by accounting for unique human drug properties, such as human metabolites, exposure, genotypes and off-target effects and can be a helpful tool for drug discovery and development.

  8. Use of a viscoelastic model for the seismic response of base-isolated buildings

    Uras, R.A.

    1994-01-01

    Due to recent developments in elastomer technology, seismic isolation using elastomer bearings is rapidly becoming an acceptable design tool to enhance structural seismic margins and to protect people and equipment from earthquake damage. With proper design of isolators, high-energy seismic input motions are transformed into low-frequency, low energy harmonic motions and the accelerations acting on the isolated building are significantly reduced. Several alternatives exist for the modeling of the isolators. This study is concerned with the use of a viscoelastic model to predict the seismic response of base-isolated buildings. The in-house finite element computer code has been modified to incorporate a viscoelastic spring element, and several simulations are performed. Then, the computed results have been compared with the corresponding observed data recorded at the test facility

  9. Modeling the controllable pH-responsive swelling and pore size of networked alginate based biomaterials.

    Chan, Ariel W; Neufeld, Ronald J

    2009-10-01

    Semisynthetic network alginate polymer (SNAP), synthesized by acetalization of linear alginate with di-aldehyde, is a pH-responsive tetrafunctionally linked 3D gel network, and has potential application in oral delivery of protein therapeutics and active biologicals, and as tissue bioscaffold for regenerative medicine. A constitutive polyelectrolyte gel model based on non-Gaussian polymer elasticity, Flory-Huggins liquid lattice theory, and non-ideal Donnan membrane equilibria was derived, to describe SNAP gel swelling in dilute and ionic solutions containing uni-univalent, uni-bivalent, bi-univalent or bi-bi-valent electrolyte solutions. Flory-Huggins interaction parameters as a function of ionic strength and characteristic ratio of alginates of various molecular weights were determined experimentally to numerically predict SNAP hydrogel swelling. SNAP hydrogel swells pronouncedly to 1000 times in dilute solution, compared to its compact polymer volume, while behaving as a neutral polymer with limited swelling in high ionic strength or low pH solutions. The derived model accurately describes the pH-responsive swelling of SNAP hydrogel in acid and alkaline solutions of wide range of ionic strength. The pore sizes of the synthesized SNAP hydrogels of various crosslink densities were estimated from the derived model to be in the range of 30-450 nm which were comparable to that measured by thermoporometry, and diffusion of bovine serum albumin. The derived equilibrium swelling model can characterize hydrogel structure such as molecular weight between crosslinks and crosslinking density, or can be used as predictive model for swelling, pore size and mechanical properties if gel structural information is known, and can potentially be applied to other point-link network polyelectrolytes such as hyaluronic acid gel.

  10. Agent-based modeling of oxygen-responsive transcription factors in Escherichia coli.

    Hao Bai

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available In the presence of oxygen (O2 the model bacterium Escherichia coli is able to conserve energy by aerobic respiration. Two major terminal oxidases are involved in this process - Cyo has a relatively low affinity for O2 but is able to pump protons and hence is energetically efficient; Cyd has a high affinity for O2 but does not pump protons. When E. coli encounters environments with different O2 availabilities, the expression of the genes encoding the alternative terminal oxidases, the cydAB and cyoABCDE operons, are regulated by two O2-responsive transcription factors, ArcA (an indirect O2 sensor and FNR (a direct O2 sensor. It has been suggested that O2-consumption by the terminal oxidases located at the cytoplasmic membrane significantly affects the activities of ArcA and FNR in the bacterial nucleoid. In this study, an agent-based modeling approach has been taken to spatially simulate the uptake and consumption of O2 by E. coli and the consequent modulation of ArcA and FNR activities based on experimental data obtained from highly controlled chemostat cultures. The molecules of O2, transcription factors and terminal oxidases are treated as individual agents and their behaviors and interactions are imitated in a simulated 3-D E. coli cell. The model implies that there are two barriers that dampen the response of FNR to O2, i.e. consumption of O2 at the membrane by the terminal oxidases and reaction of O2 with cytoplasmic FNR. Analysis of FNR variants suggested that the monomer-dimer transition is the key step in FNR-mediated repression of gene expression.

  11. Using an agent-based model to analyze the dynamic communication network of the immune response

    Doolittle John

    2011-01-01

    loss outcomes. Conclusions An agent-based model capturing several key aspects of complex system dynamics was used to study the emergent properties of the immune response to viral infection. Specific patterns of interactions between leukocyte agents occurring early in the response significantly improved outcome. More interactions at later stages correlated with persistent inflammation and infection. These simulation experiments highlight the importance of commonly overlooked aspects of the immune response and provide insight into these processes at a resolution level exceeding the capabilities of current laboratory technologies.

  12. History-Based Response Threshold Model for Division of Labor in Multi-Agent Systems

    Lee, Wonki; Kim, DaeEun

    2017-01-01

    Dynamic task allocation is a necessity in a group of robots. Each member should decide its own task such that it is most commensurate with its current state in the overall system. In this work, the response threshold model is applied to a dynamic foraging task. Each robot employs a task switching function based on the local task demand obtained from the surrounding environment, and no communication occurs between the robots. Each individual member has a constant-sized task demand history that reflects the global demand. In addition, it has response threshold values for all of the tasks and manages the task switching process depending on the stimuli of the task demands. The robot then determines the task to be executed to regulate the overall division of labor. This task selection induces a specialized tendency for performing a specific task and regulates the division of labor. In particular, maintaining a history of the task demands is very effective for the dynamic foraging task. Various experiments are performed using a simulation with multiple robots, and the results show that the proposed algorithm is more effective as compared to the conventional model. PMID:28555031

  13. Environmental optimal control strategies based on plant canopy photosynthesis responses and greenhouse climate model

    Deng, Lujuan; Xie, Songhe; Cui, Jiantao; Liu, Tao

    2006-11-01

    It is the essential goal of intelligent greenhouse environment optimal control to enhance income of cropper and energy save. There were some characteristics such as uncertainty, imprecision, nonlinear, strong coupling, bigger inertia and different time scale in greenhouse environment control system. So greenhouse environment optimal control was not easy and especially model-based optimal control method was more difficult. So the optimal control problem of plant environment in intelligent greenhouse was researched. Hierarchical greenhouse environment control system was constructed. In the first level data measuring was carried out and executive machine was controlled. Optimal setting points of climate controlled variable in greenhouse was calculated and chosen in the second level. Market analysis and planning were completed in third level. The problem of the optimal setting point was discussed in this paper. Firstly the model of plant canopy photosynthesis responses and the model of greenhouse climate model were constructed. Afterwards according to experience of the planting expert, in daytime the optimal goals were decided according to the most maximal photosynthesis rate principle. In nighttime on plant better growth conditions the optimal goals were decided by energy saving principle. Whereafter environment optimal control setting points were computed by GA. Compared the optimal result and recording data in real system, the method is reasonable and can achieve energy saving and the maximal photosynthesis rate in intelligent greenhouse

  14. A biological-based model that links genomic instability, bystander effects, and adaptive response

    Scott, B.R.

    2004-01-01

    This paper links genomic instability, bystander effects, and adaptive response in mammalian cell communities via a novel biological-based, dose-response model called NEOTRANS 3 . The model is an extension of the NEOTRANS 2 model that addressed stochastic effects (genomic instability, mutations, and neoplastic transformation) associated with brief exposure to low radiation doses. With both models, ionizing radiation produces DNA damage in cells that can be associated with varying degrees of genomic instability. Cells with persistent problematic instability (PPI) are mutants that arise via misrepair of DNA damage. Progeny of PPI cells also have PPI and can undergo spontaneous neoplastic transformation. Unlike NEOTRANS 2 , with NEOTRANS 3 newly induced mutant PPI cells and their neoplastically transformed progeny can be suppressed via our previously introduced protective apoptosis-mediated (PAM) process, which can be activated by low linear energy transfer (LET) radiation. However, with NEOTRANS 3 (which like NEOTRANS 2 involves cross-talk between nongenomically compromised [e.g., nontransformed, nonmutants] and genomically compromised [e.g., mutants, transformants, etc.] cells), it is assumed that PAM is only activated over a relatively narrow, dose-rate-dependent interval (D PAM ,D off ); where D PAM is a small stochastic activation threshold, and D off is the stochastic dose above which PAM does not occur. PAM cooperates with activated normal DNA repair and with activated normal apoptosis in guarding against genomic instability. Normal repair involves both error-free repair and misrepair components. Normal apoptosis and the error-free component of normal repair protect mammals by preventing the occurrence of mutant cells. PAM selectively removes mutant cells arising via the misrepair component of normal repair, selectively removes existing neoplastically transformed cells, and probably selectively removes other genomically compromised cells when it is activated

  15. Evaluation of iodide deficiency in the lactating rat and pup using a biologically based dose response (BBDR) Model***

    A biologically-based dose response (BBDR) model for the hypothalamic-pituitary thyroid (HPT) axis in the lactating rat and nursing pup was developed to describe the perturbations caused by iodide deficiency on the 1-IPT axis. Model calibrations, carried out by adjusting key model...

  16. Evaluation of iodide deficiency in the lactating rat and pup using a biologically based dose-response model

    A biologically-based dose response (BBDR) model for the hypothalamic-pituitary thyroid (BPT) axis in the lactating rat and nursing pup was developed to describe the perturbations caused by iodide deficiency on the HPT axis. Model calibrations, carried out by adjusting key model p...

  17. Simulation of dynamic response of nuclear power plant based on user-defined model in PSASP

    Zhao Jie; Liu Dichen; Xiong Li; Chen Qi; Du Zhi; Lei Qingsheng

    2010-01-01

    Based on the energy transformation regularity in physical process of pressurized water reactors (PWR), PWR NPP models are established in PSASP (Power System Analysis Software Package), which are applicable for calculating the dynamic process of PWR NPP and power system transient stabilization. The power dynamic characteristics of PWR NPP is simulated and analyzed, including the PWR self-stability, self-regulation and power step responses under power regulation system. The results indicate that the PWR NPP can afford certain exterior disturbances and 10%P n step under temperature negative feedbacks. The regulate speed of PWR power can reach 5%P n /min under the power regulation system, which meets the requirement of peak regulation in Power Grid. (authors)

  18. Nonrigid, Linear Plasma Response Model Based on Perturbed Equilibria for Axisymmetric Tokamak Control Design

    Welander, A.S.; Deranian, R.D.; Humphreys, D.A.; Leuer, J.A.; Walker, M.L.

    2005-01-01

    Tokamak control design relies on an accurate linear model of the plasma response, which can often dominate the local field variations in regions under active feedback control. For example, when fluxes at selected points on the plasma boundary are regulated in DIII-D, the plasma response to a change in a coil current gives rise to a flux change which can be larger than and opposite to the flux change caused by the coil alone.In the past, rigid plasma models have been used for linear stability and shape control design. In a rigid model, the plasma current profile is considered fixed and moves rigidly in response to control coils to maintain radial and vertical force balance. In a nonrigid model, however, changes in the plasma shape and current profile are taken into account. Such models are expected to be important for future advanced tokamak control design. The present work describes development of a nonrigid plasma response model for high-accuracy multivariable control design and provides comparisons of model predictions against DIII-D experimental data. The linear perturbed plasma response model is calculated rapidly from an existing equilibrium solution

  19. Quantal Response: Nonparametric Modeling

    2017-01-01

    capture the behavior of observed phenomena. Higher-order polynomial and finite-dimensional spline basis models allow for more complicated responses as the...flexibility as these are nonparametric (not constrained to any particular functional form). These should be useful in identifying nonstandard behavior via... deviance ∆ = −2 log(Lreduced/Lfull) is defined in terms of the likelihood function L. For normal error, Lfull = 1, and based on Eq. A-2, we have log

  20. Pavement mechanic response of sulfate saline soil subgrade section based on fluid–structure interaction model

    Xueying Zhao

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available It is a consensus that salt heaving and frost heaving are urgent and typical distress in the sulfate saline soil area. To further investigate the microscopic performance of pavement structure in this special area, Jinan-Dongying Freeway in Shandong Province is selected as a case study engineering and the mechanic responses under salt heaving, frost heaving and traffic loads were analyzed through the finite element (FE Program (ANSYS. In this paper, the process of salt heaving and frost heaving was divided into 3 stages and FE models were established based on fluid–structure interaction (FSI model. It is shown that under both effects of salt heaving and frost heaving, the tensile stress of asphalt surface course could be up to 96.75% of its tensile strength, which means its tensile strength was seriously inadequate; however, traffic loads could help to dramatically counteract effects of salt heaving and frost heaving, which could decrease 40–80% of the tensile stress in asphalt surface course. It is also shown that in Jinan-Dongying Freeway effects of salt heaving had slightly larger effects on pavement compared with that of frost heaving, probably because salt heaving occurred from the top to the bottom of subgrade. However, as a whole, in sulfate saline soil area, compared with general area, crack resistance of asphalt courses and foundation treatment should always be strengthened. Keywords: Sulfate saline soil subgrade, Asphalt pavement, Pavement mechanic, FEM, FSI, Cracks and bulging

  1. Survey of Models on Demand, Customer Base-Line and Demand Response and Their Relationships in the Power Market

    Heshmati, Almas

    2012-01-01

    The increasing use of demand-side management as a tool to reliably meet electricity demand at peak time has stimulated interest among researchers, consumers and producer organizations, managers, regulators and policymakers, This research reviews the growing literature on models used to study demand, consumer baseline (CBL) and demand response in the electricity market. After characterizing the general demand models, it reviews consumer baseline based on which further study the demand response...

  2. Seismic response of base-isolated buildings using a viscoelastic model

    Uras, R.A.

    1993-01-01

    Due to recent developments in elastomer technology,seismic isolation using elastomer bearings is rapidly gaining acceptance as a design tool to enhance structural seismic margins and to protect people and equipment from earthquake damage. With proper design of isolators, the fundamental frequency of the structure can be reduced to a value that is lower than the dominant frequencies of earthquake ground motions. The other feature of an isolation system is that it can provide a mechanism for energy dissipation. In the USA, the use of seismic base-isolation has become an alternate strategy for advanced Liquid Metal-cooled Reactors (LMRs). ANL has been deeply involved in the development and implementation of seismic isolation for use in both nuclear facilities and civil structures for the past decade. Shimizu Corporation of Japan has a test facility at Tohoku University in Sendai, Japan. The test facility has two buildings: one is base isolated and the other is conventionally founded. The buildings are full-size, three-story reinforced concrete structures. The dimensions and construction of the superstructures are identical. They were built side by side in a seismically active area. In 1988, the ANL/Shimizu Joint Program was established to study the differences in behavior of base-isolated and ordinarily founded structures when subjected to earthquake loading. A more comprehensive description of this joint program is presented in a companion paper (Wang et al. 1993). With the increased use of elastomeric polymers in industrial applications such as isolation bearings, the importance of constitutive modeling of viscoelastic materials is more and more pronounced. A realistic representation of material behavior is essential for computer simulations to replicate the response observed in experiments

  3. The Development of Web-based Graphical User Interface for Unified Modeling Data with Multi (Correlated) Responses

    Made Tirta, I.; Anggraeni, Dian

    2018-04-01

    Statistical models have been developed rapidly into various directions to accommodate various types of data. Data collected from longitudinal, repeated measured, clustered data (either continuous, binary, count, or ordinal), are more likely to be correlated. Therefore statistical model for independent responses, such as Generalized Linear Model (GLM), Generalized Additive Model (GAM) are not appropriate. There are several models available to apply for correlated responses including GEEs (Generalized Estimating Equations), for marginal model and various mixed effect model such as GLMM (Generalized Linear Mixed Models) and HGLM (Hierarchical Generalized Linear Models) for subject spesific models. These models are available on free open source software R, but they can only be accessed through command line interface (using scrit). On the othe hand, most practical researchers very much rely on menu based or Graphical User Interface (GUI). We develop, using Shiny framework, standard pull down menu Web-GUI that unifies most models for correlated responses. The Web-GUI has accomodated almost all needed features. It enables users to do and compare various modeling for repeated measure data (GEE, GLMM, HGLM, GEE for nominal responses) much more easily trough online menus. This paper discusses the features of the Web-GUI and illustrates the use of them. In General we find that GEE, GLMM, HGLM gave very closed results.

  4. Experimental parameters differentially affect the humoral response of the cholera-toxin-based murine model of food allergy

    Kroghsbo, S.; Christensen, Hanne Risager; Frøkiær, Hanne

    2003-01-01

    Background: Recent studies have developed a murine model of IgE-mediated food allergy based on oral coadministration of antigen and cholera toxin (CT) to establish a maximal response for studying immunopathogenic mechanisms and immunotherapeutic strategies. However, for studying subtle...... interested in characterizing the individual effects of the parameters in the CT-based model: CT dose, antigen type and dose, and number of immunizations. Methods: BALB/c mice were orally sensitized weekly for 3 or 7 weeks with graded doses of CT and various food antigens (soy-trypsin inhibitor, ovalbumin...... of the antibody response depended on the type of antigen and number of immunizations. Conclusions: The critical parameters of the CT-based murine allergy model differentially control the intensity and kinetics of the developing immune response. Adjustment of these parameters could be a key tool for tailoring...

  5. Experience Report: Constraint-Based Modelling and Simulation of Railway Emergency Response Plans

    Debois, Søren; Hildebrandt, Thomas; Sandberg, Lene

    2016-01-01

    ways to proceed, including ways not necessarily anticipated in the paper-based emergency response plans. The case study was undertaken as part of a short research, ProSec, project funded by the Danish Defence Agency, with the aim of applying and developing methods for collaborative mapping of emergency...

  6. Response surface and neural network based predictive models of cutting temperature in hard turning

    Mozammel Mia

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The present study aimed to develop the predictive models of average tool-workpiece interface temperature in hard turning of AISI 1060 steels by coated carbide insert. The Response Surface Methodology (RSM and Artificial Neural Network (ANN were employed to predict the temperature in respect of cutting speed, feed rate and material hardness. The number and orientation of the experimental trials, conducted in both dry and high pressure coolant (HPC environments, were planned using full factorial design. The temperature was measured by using the tool-work thermocouple. In RSM model, two quadratic equations of temperature were derived from experimental data. The analysis of variance (ANOVA and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE were performed to suffice the adequacy of the models. In ANN model, 80% data were used to train and 20% data were employed for testing. Like RSM, herein, the error analysis was also conducted. The accuracy of the RSM and ANN model was found to be ⩾99%. The ANN models exhibit an error of ∼5% MAE for testing data. The regression coefficient was found to be greater than 99.9% for both dry and HPC. Both these models are acceptable, although the ANN model demonstrated a higher accuracy. These models, if employed, are expected to provide a better control of cutting temperature in turning of hardened steel.

  7. Sharing experiences: towards an evidence based model of dengue surveillance and outbreak response in Latin America and Asia.

    Badurdeen, Shiraz; Valladares, David; Farrar, Jeremy; Gozzer, Ernesto; Kroeger, Axel; Kuswara, Novia; Ranzinger, Silvia; Tinh, Hien; Leite, Priscila; Mahendradhata, Yodi; Skewes, Ronald; Verrall, Ayesha

    2013-01-01

    BACKGROUND\\ud The increasing frequency and intensity of dengue outbreaks in endemic and non-endemic countries requires a rational, evidence based response. To this end, we aimed to collate the experiences of a number of affected countries, identify strengths and limitations in dengue surveillance, outbreak preparedness, detection and response and contribute towards the development of a model contingency plan adaptable to country needs.\\ud \\ud METHODS\\ud The study was undertaken in five Latin ...

  8. Research on Power Producer’s Bidding Behavior Based on the Best-Response Dynamic Model

    Jingqi Sun

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available As China’s electricity market is facing many problems, the research on power producer’s bidding behavior can promote the healthy and sustainable development of China’s electricity market. As a special commodity, the “electricity” possesses complicated production process. The instable market constraint condition, nonsymmetric information, and a lot of random factors make the producer’s bidding process more complex. Best-response dynamic is one of the classic dynamic mechanisms of the evolutionary game theory, which applies well in the repeated game and strategy evolution that happen among a few bounded rational players with a quick learning capability. The best-response dynamic mechanism is employed to study the power producer’s bidding behavior in this paper, the producer’s best-response dynamic model is constructed, and how the producers would engage in bidding is analyzed in detail. Taking two generating units in South China regional electricity market as the example, the producer’s bidding behavior by following the producer’s best-response dynamic model is verified. The relationships between the evolutionarily stable strategy (ESS of power producer’s bidding and the market demand, and ceiling and floor price as well as biding frequency are discussed in detail.

  9. Dissonance-Based Eating Disorder Prevention Program Reduces Reward Region Response to Thin Models; How Actions Shape Valuation.

    Eric Stice

    Full Text Available Research supports the effectiveness of a dissonance-based eating disorder prevention program wherein high-risk young women with body dissatisfaction critique the thin ideal, which reduces pursuit of this ideal, and the theory that dissonance induction contributes to these effects. Based on evidence that dissonance produces attitudinal change by altering neural representation of valuation, we tested whether completing the Body Project would reduce response of brain regions implicated in reward valuation to thin models. Young women with body dissatisfaction were randomized to this intervention or an educational control condition, completing assessments and fMRI scans while viewing images of thin versus average-weight female models at pre and post. Whole brain analyses indicated that, compared to controls, Body Project participants showed greater reductions in caudate response to images of thin versus average-weight models, though participants in the two conditions showed pretest differences in responsivity of other brain regions that might have contributed to this effect. Greater pre-post reductions in caudate and putamen response to thin models correlated with greater reductions in body dissatisfaction. The finding that the Body Project reduces caudate response to thin models provides novel preliminary evidence that this intervention reduces valuation of media images thought to contribute to body dissatisfaction and eating disorders, providing support for the intervention theory by documenting that this intervention alters an objective biological outcome.

  10. Physically-Based Modelling of the Post-Fire Runoff Response of a Forest Catchment in Central Portugal

    Eck, Van Christel M.; Nunes, Joao P.; Vieira, Diana C.S.; Keesstra, Saskia; Keizer, Jan Jacob

    2016-01-01

    Forest fires are a recurrent phenomenon in Mediterranean forests, with impacts for human landscapes and communities, which must be understood before they can be managed. This study used the physically based Limburg Soil Erosion Model (LISEM) to simulate rainfall–runoff response, under soil water

  11. A demand response modeling for residential consumers in smart grid environment using game theory based energy scheduling algorithm

    S. Sofana Reka

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, demand response modeling scheme is proposed for residential consumers using game theory algorithm as Generalized Tit for Tat (GTFT Dominant Game based Energy Scheduler. The methodology is established as a work flow domain model between the utility and the user considering the smart grid framework. It exhibits an algorithm which schedules load usage by creating several possible tariffs for consumers such that demand is never raised. This can be done both individually and among multiple users of a community. The uniqueness behind the demand response proposed is that, the tariff is calculated for all hours and the load during the peak hours which can be rescheduled is shifted based on the Peak Average Ratio. To enable the vitality of the work simulation results of a general case of three domestic consumers are modeled extended to a comparative performance and evaluation with other algorithms and inference is analyzed.

  12. Study of cumulative fatigue damage detection for used parts with nonlinear output frequency response functions based on NARMAX modelling

    Huang, Honglan; Mao, Hanying; Mao, Hanling; Zheng, Weixue; Huang, Zhenfeng; Li, Xinxin; Wang, Xianghong

    2017-12-01

    Cumulative fatigue damage detection for used parts plays a key role in the process of remanufacturing engineering and is related to the service safety of the remanufactured parts. In light of the nonlinear properties of used parts caused by cumulative fatigue damage, the based nonlinear output frequency response functions detection approach offers a breakthrough to solve this key problem. First, a modified PSO-adaptive lasso algorithm is introduced to improve the accuracy of the NARMAX model under impulse hammer excitation, and then, an effective new algorithm is derived to estimate the nonlinear output frequency response functions under rectangular pulse excitation, and a based nonlinear output frequency response functions index is introduced to detect the cumulative fatigue damage in used parts. Then, a novel damage detection approach that integrates the NARMAX model and the rectangular pulse is proposed for nonlinear output frequency response functions identification and cumulative fatigue damage detection of used parts. Finally, experimental studies of fatigued plate specimens and used connecting rod parts are conducted to verify the validity of the novel approach. The obtained results reveal that the new approach can detect cumulative fatigue damages of used parts effectively and efficiently and that the various values of the based nonlinear output frequency response functions index can be used to detect the different fatigue damages or working time. Since the proposed new approach can extract nonlinear properties of systems by only a single excitation of the inspected system, it shows great promise for use in remanufacturing engineering applications.

  13. Quantitative global sensitivity analysis of a biologically based dose-response pregnancy model for the thyroid endocrine system.

    Lumen, Annie; McNally, Kevin; George, Nysia; Fisher, Jeffrey W; Loizou, George D

    2015-01-01

    A deterministic biologically based dose-response model for the thyroidal system in a near-term pregnant woman and the fetus was recently developed to evaluate quantitatively thyroid hormone perturbations. The current work focuses on conducting a quantitative global sensitivity analysis on this complex model to identify and characterize the sources and contributions of uncertainties in the predicted model output. The workflow and methodologies suitable for computationally expensive models, such as the Morris screening method and Gaussian Emulation processes, were used for the implementation of the global sensitivity analysis. Sensitivity indices, such as main, total and interaction effects, were computed for a screened set of the total thyroidal system descriptive model input parameters. Furthermore, a narrower sub-set of the most influential parameters affecting the model output of maternal thyroid hormone levels were identified in addition to the characterization of their overall and pair-wise parameter interaction quotients. The characteristic trends of influence in model output for each of these individual model input parameters over their plausible ranges were elucidated using Gaussian Emulation processes. Through global sensitivity analysis we have gained a better understanding of the model behavior and performance beyond the domains of observation by the simultaneous variation in model inputs over their range of plausible uncertainties. The sensitivity analysis helped identify parameters that determine the driving mechanisms of the maternal and fetal iodide kinetics, thyroid function and their interactions, and contributed to an improved understanding of the system modeled. We have thus demonstrated the use and application of global sensitivity analysis for a biologically based dose-response model for sensitive life-stages such as pregnancy that provides richer information on the model and the thyroidal system modeled compared to local sensitivity analysis.

  14. Quantitative global sensitivity analysis of a biologically based dose-response pregnancy model for the thyroid endocrine system

    Annie eLumen

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available A deterministic biologically based dose-response model for the thyroidal system in a near-term pregnant woman and the fetus was recently developed to evaluate quantitatively thyroid hormone perturbations. The current work focuses on conducting a quantitative global sensitivity analysis on this complex model to identify and characterize the sources and contributions of uncertainties in the predicted model output. The workflow and methodologies suitable for computationally expensive models, such as the Morris screening method and Gaussian Emulation processes, were used for the implementation of the global sensitivity analysis. Sensitivity indices, such as main, total and interaction effects, were computed for a screened set of the total thyroidal system descriptive model input parameters. Furthermore, a narrower sub-set of the most influential parameters affecting the model output of maternal thyroid hormone levels were identified in addition to the characterization of their overall and pair-wise parameter interaction quotients. The characteristic trends of influence in model output for each of these individual model input parameters over their plausible ranges were elucidated using Gaussian Emulation processes. Through global sensitivity analysis we have gained a better understanding of the model behavior and performance beyond the domains of observation by the simultaneous variation in model inputs over their range of plausible uncertainties. The sensitivity analysis helped identify parameters that determine the driving mechanisms of the maternal and fetal iodide kinetics, thyroid function and their interactions, and contributed to an improved understanding of the system modeled. We have thus demonstrated the use and application of global sensitivity analysis for a biologically based dose-response model for sensitive life-stages such as pregnancy that provides richer information on the model and the thyroidal system modeled compared to local

  15. In situ measurement and modeling of biomechanical response of human cadaveric soft tissues for physics-based surgical simulation.

    Lim, Yi-Je; Deo, Dhanannjay; Singh, Tejinder P; Jones, Daniel B; De, Suvranu

    2009-06-01

    Development of a laparoscopic surgery simulator that delivers high-fidelity visual and haptic (force) feedback, based on the physical models of soft tissues, requires the use of empirical data on the mechanical behavior of intra-abdominal organs under the action of external forces. As experiments on live human patients present significant risks, the use of cadavers presents an alternative. We present techniques of measuring and modeling the mechanical response of human cadaveric tissue for the purpose of developing a realistic model. The major contribution of this paper is the development of physics-based models of soft tissues that range from linear elastic models to nonlinear viscoelastic models which are efficient for application within the framework of a real-time surgery simulator. To investigate the in situ mechanical, static, and dynamic properties of intra-abdominal organs, we have developed a high-precision instrument by retrofitting a robotic device from Sensable Technologies (position resolution of 0.03 mm) with a six-axis Nano 17 force-torque sensor from ATI Industrial Automation (force resolution of 1/1,280 N along each axis), and used it to apply precise displacement stimuli and record the force response of liver and stomach of ten fresh human cadavers. The mean elastic modulus of liver and stomach is estimated as 5.9359 kPa and 1.9119 kPa, respectively over the range of indentation depths tested. We have also obtained the parameters of a quasilinear viscoelastic (QLV) model to represent the nonlinear viscoelastic behavior of the cadaver stomach and liver over a range of indentation depths and speeds. The models are found to have an excellent goodness of fit (with R (2) > 0.99). The data and models presented in this paper together with additional ones based on the principles presented in this paper would result in realistic physics-based surgical simulators.

  16. Direct-to-consumer advertising of predictive genetic tests: a health belief model based examination of consumer response.

    Rollins, Brent L; Ramakrishnan, Shravanan; Perri, Matthew

    2014-01-01

    Direct-to-consumer (DTC) advertising of predictive genetic tests (PGTs) has added a new dimension to health advertising. This study used an online survey based on the health belief model framework to examine and more fully understand consumers' responses and behavioral intentions in response to a PGT DTC advertisement. Overall, consumers reported moderate intentions to talk with their doctor and seek more information about PGTs after advertisement exposure, though consumers did not seem ready to take the advertised test or engage in active information search. Those who perceived greater threat from the disease, however, had significantly greater behavioral intentions and information search behavior.

  17. Mesoscale model response to random, surface-based perturbations — A sea-breeze experiment

    Garratt, J. R.; Pielke, R. A.; Miller, W. F.; Lee, T. J.

    1990-09-01

    The introduction into a mesoscale model of random (in space) variations in roughness length, or random (in space and time) surface perturbations of temperature and friction velocity, produces a measurable, but barely significant, response in the simulated flow dynamics of the lower atmosphere. The perturbations are an attempt to include the effects of sub-grid variability into the ensemble-mean parameterization schemes used in many numerical models. Their magnitude is set in our experiments by appeal to real-world observations of the spatial variations in roughness length and daytime surface temperature over the land on horizontal scales of one to several tens of kilometers. With sea-breeze simulations, comparisons of a number of realizations forced by roughness-length and surface-temperature perturbations with the standard simulation reveal no significant change in ensemble mean statistics, and only small changes in the sea-breeze vertical velocity. Changes in the updraft velocity for individual runs, of up to several cms-1 (compared to a mean of 14 cms-1), are directly the result of prefrontal temperature changes of 0.1 to 0.2K, produced by the random surface forcing. The correlation and magnitude of the changes are entirely consistent with a gravity-current interpretation of the sea breeze.

  18. Amazon rainforest responses to elevated CO2: Deriving model-based hypotheses for the AmazonFACE experiment

    Rammig, A.; Fleischer, K.; Lapola, D.; Holm, J.; Hoosbeek, M.

    2017-12-01

    Increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration is assumed to have a stimulating effect ("CO2 fertilization effect") on forest growth and resilience. Empirical evidence, however, for the existence and strength of such a tropical CO2 fertilization effect is scarce and thus a major impediment for constraining the uncertainties in Earth System Model projections. The implications of the tropical CO2 effect are far-reaching, as it strongly influences the global carbon and water cycle, and hence future global climate. In the scope of the Amazon Free Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) experiment, we addressed these uncertainties by assessing the CO2 fertilization effect at ecosystem scale. AmazonFACE is the first FACE experiment in an old-growth, highly diverse tropical rainforest. Here, we present a priori model-based hypotheses for the experiment derived from a set of 12 ecosystem models. Model simulations identified key uncertainties in our understanding of limiting processes and derived model-based hypotheses of expected ecosystem responses to elevated CO2 that can directly be tested during the experiment. Ambient model simulations compared satisfactorily with in-situ measurements of ecosystem carbon fluxes, as well as carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus stocks. Models consistently predicted an increase in photosynthesis with elevated CO2, which declined over time due to developing limitations. The conversion of enhanced photosynthesis into biomass, and hence ecosystem carbon sequestration, varied strongly among the models due to different assumptions on nutrient limitation. Models with flexible allocation schemes consistently predicted an increased investment in belowground structures to alleviate nutrient limitation, in turn accelerating turnover rates of soil organic matter. The models diverged on the prediction for carbon accumulation after 10 years of elevated CO2, mainly due to contrasting assumptions in their phosphorus cycle representation. These differences define the expected

  19. Dynamical response of multi-walled carbon nanotube resonators based on continuum mechanics modeling for mass sensing applications

    Choi, Myungseok; Olshevskiy, Alexander; Kim, Chang-Wan [Konkuk University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Eom, Kilho [Sungkyunkwan University, Suwon (Korea, Republic of); Gwak, Kwanwoong [Sejong University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Dai, Mai Duc [Ho Chi Minh City University of Technology and Education, Ho Chi Minh (Viet Nam)

    2017-05-15

    Carbon nanotube (CNT) has recently received much attention due to its excellent electromechanical properties, indicating that CNT can be employed for development of Nanoelectromechanical system (NEMS) such as nanomechanical resonators. For effective design of CNT-based resonators, it is required to accurately predict the vibration behavior of CNT resonators as well as their frequency response to mass adsorption. In this work, we have studied the vibrational behavior of Multi-walled CNT (MWCNT) resonators by using a continuum mechanics modeling that was implemented in Finite element method (FEM). In particular, we consider a transversely isotropic hollow cylinder solid model with Finite element (FE) implementation for modeling the vibration behavior of Multi-walled CNT (MWCNT) resonators. It is shown that our continuum mechanics model provides the resonant frequencies of various MWCNTs being comparable to those obtained from experiments. Moreover, we have investigated the frequency response of MWCNT resonators to mass adsorption by using our continuum model with FE implementation. Our study sheds light on our continuum mechanics model that is useful in predicting not only the vibration behavior of MWCNT resonators but also their sensing performance for further effective design of MWCNT- based NEMS devices.

  20. Are opinions based on science: modelling social response to scientific facts.

    Gerardo Iñiguez

    Full Text Available As scientists we like to think that modern societies and their members base their views, opinions and behaviour on scientific facts. This is not necessarily the case, even though we are all (over- exposed to information flow through various channels of media, i.e. newspapers, television, radio, internet, and web. It is thought that this is mainly due to the conflicting information on the mass media and to the individual attitude (formed by cultural, educational and environmental factors, that is, one external factor and another personal factor. In this paper we will investigate the dynamical development of opinion in a small population of agents by means of a computational model of opinion formation in a co-evolving network of socially linked agents. The personal and external factors are taken into account by assigning an individual attitude parameter to each agent, and by subjecting all to an external but homogeneous field to simulate the effect of the media. We then adjust the field strength in the model by using actual data on scientific perception surveys carried out in two different populations, which allow us to compare two different societies. We interpret the model findings with the aid of simple mean field calculations. Our results suggest that scientifically sound concepts are more difficult to acquire than concepts not validated by science, since opposing individuals organize themselves in close communities that prevent opinion consensus.

  1. A model based on Copula Theory for sustainable and social responsible investments

    Amelia Bilbao-Terol

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a model is proposed that allows us to obtain a portfolio made up of sustainable and socially responsible (SR investment funds. This portfolio tracks the one that investors might have chosen if they had not taken into account social, ethical and ecological (SEE issues in their investment decisions. Therefore, in the first stage, reference portfolio exclusively made up of conventional funds is obtained. For the construction of the conventional portfolio the Prospect Theory has been used: net profits as the financial objective and error function as the utility function. In the second stage, a portfolio consisting exclusively of SR-funds is built. To do so, the reference portfolio is used as an ideal point, with the objectives of the SR-investor being the relative wealth with respect to the reference portfolio and the SEE quality of the portfolio. The relative wealth will be manipulated by a downside-risk measure, the Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR, and the periodic values of the portfolio. The second objective is the SR Quality of the portfolio, taking into account the personal values of a particular investor. This is built using Fuzzy Set Theory tools. We are faced with a multi-objective problem which is solved by using Goal Programming methodology. The estimation of both conventional and SR markets has been carried out by a semi-parametric approach by using the Copula Theory for modeling the dependence structure of the assets’ returns. The approach has been applied to a set of 38 conventional and 12 ethical funds domiciled in Spain.

  2. Multiscale modeling of interwoven Kevlar fibers based on random walk to predict yarn structural response

    Recchia, Stephen

    Kevlar is the most common high-end plastic filament yarn used in body armor, tire reinforcement, and wear resistant applications. Kevlar is a trade name for an aramid fiber. These are fibers in which the chain molecules are highly oriented along the fiber axis, so the strength of the chemical bond can be exploited. The bulk material is extruded into filaments that are bound together into yarn, which may be chorded with other materials as in car tires, woven into a fabric, or layered in an epoxy to make composite panels. The high tensile strength to low weight ratio makes this material ideal for designs that decrease weight and inertia, such as automobile tires, body panels, and body armor. For designs that use Kevlar, increasing the strength, or tenacity, to weight ratio would improve performance or reduce cost of all products that are based on this material. This thesis computationally and experimentally investigates the tenacity and stiffness of Kevlar yarns with varying twist ratios. The test boundary conditions were replicated with a geometrically accurate finite element model, resulting in a customized code that can reproduce tortuous filaments in a yarn was developed. The solid model geometry capturing filament tortuosity was implemented through a random walk method of axial geometry creation. A finite element analysis successfully recreated the yarn strength and stiffness dependency observed during the tests. The physics applied in the finite element model was reproduced in an analytical equation that was able to predict the failure strength and strain dependency of twist ratio. The analytical solution can be employed to optimize yarn design for high strength applications.

  3. Characterization and Modeling of Electrical Response of Electrode Catalyzed Reactions in AIGaN/GaN-Based Gas Sensors

    Melby, Jacob H.

    AlGaN/GaN high electron mobility transistors (HEMT) and AlGaN/GaN diodes have promise for use as hydrogen and hydrocarbon sensors for a variety of industrial, military, and commercial applications. These semiconductor-based sensors have a number of advantages over other sensor technologies, such as the ability to operate at high temperatures, in corrosive environments, or under ionizing radiation. The high sensitivity of these devices to hydrogen-containing gases is associated with polarization differences within the AlGaN/GaN heterostructure that give rise to the formation of a two-dimensional electron gas (2DEG); exposure of the device to hydrogen changes the density of the 2DEG, which can be detected in a HEMT or diode structure. Although sensitivity to a range of gases has been reported, the factors that influence the behavior of the sensors are not well studied. The overarching goals of the research that follows were to determine how gas exposure conditions affect sensor behavior, to characterize and model the relationship between the electrical response of the sensors and the external gaseous environment, and to investigate the effects of using different metal catalysts on sensor behavior. The heterostructures used in this work were grown via metalorganic vapor phase epitaxy (MOVPE). Schottky diode and transistor devices employing platinum-group (Pd, Pt, Rh, Ir, Ru, and Os) catalysts were fabricated to allow electrical sensitivity in the presence of hydrogen and hydrogen containing gases. The generation of atomic hydrogen on the catalyst surface results in the rapid formation of hydrogen dipoles at the metal-semiconductor interface, which produces a measurable electronic response. The electrical response of Pt-gated HEMT-based sensors were measured in a flowing gaseous stream consisting of hydrogen in a pure nitrogen diluent at ambient and elevated temperatures. The transistors exhibited excellent transfer characteristics for temperatures ranging from 25

  4. The optimization model for multi-type customers assisting wind power consumptive considering uncertainty and demand response based on robust stochastic theory

    Tan, Zhongfu; Ju, Liwei; Reed, Brent; Rao, Rao; Peng, Daoxin; Li, Huanhuan; Pan, Ge

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Our research focuses on demand response behaviors of multi-type customers. • A wind power simulation method is proposed based on the Brownian motion theory. • Demand response revenue functions are proposed for multi-type customers. • A robust stochastic optimization model is proposed for wind power consumptive. • Models are built to measure the impacts of demand response on wind power consumptive. - Abstract: In order to relieve the influence of wind power uncertainty on power system operation, demand response and robust stochastic theory are introduced to build a stochastic scheduling optimization model. Firstly, this paper presents a simulation method for wind power considering external environment based on Brownian motion theory. Secondly, price-based demand response and incentive-based demand response are introduced to build demand response model. Thirdly, the paper constructs the demand response revenue functions for electric vehicle customers, business customers, industry customers and residential customers. Furthermore, robust stochastic optimization theory is introduced to build a wind power consumption stochastic optimization model. Finally, simulation analysis is taken in the IEEE 36 nodes 10 units system connected with 650 MW wind farms. The results show the robust stochastic optimization theory is better to overcome wind power uncertainty. Demand response can improve system wind power consumption capability. Besides, price-based demand response could transform customers’ load demand distribution, but its load curtailment capacity is not as obvious as incentive-based demand response. Since price-based demand response cannot transfer customer’s load demand as the same as incentive-based demand response, the comprehensive optimization effect will reach best when incentive-based demand response and price-based demand response are both introduced.

  5. Multi-gas interaction modeling on decorated semiconductor interfaces: A novel Fermi distribution-based response isotherm and the inverse hard/soft acid/base concept

    Laminack, William [Department of Physics, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA 30332 (United States); Gole, James, E-mail: James.Gole@physics.gatech.edu [Department of Physics, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA 30332 (United States); Department of Mechanical Engineering, Georgia Tech, Atlanta, GA 30332 (United States)

    2015-12-30

    Graphical abstract: Visual representation of the PS interface interacting with mixed gas configurations. The red dots correspond to nanostructured metal oxides. Each combination of distinct molecules are labeled below the pores, which are oversized in the figure. - Highlights: • First study of mixed gas analytes interacting with a micro-porous silicon substrate. • Responses are represented by a newly developed response absorption isotherm. • This isotherm is modeled on the basis of the Fermi distribution function. • The developing IHSAB concept explains multi-gas analyte–analyte interactions. - Abstract: A unique MEMS/NEMS approach is presented for the modeling of a detection platform for mixed gas interactions. Mixed gas analytes interact with nanostructured decorating metal oxide island sites supported on a microporous silicon substrate. The Inverse Hard/Soft acid/base (IHSAB) concept is used to assess a diversity of conductometric responses for mixed gas interactions as a function of these nanostructured metal oxides. The analyte conductometric responses are well represented using a combination diffusion/absorption-based model for multi-gas interactions where a newly developed response absorption isotherm, based on the Fermi distribution function is applied. A further coupling of this model with the IHSAB concept describes the considerations in modeling of multi-gas mixed analyte–interface, and analyte–analyte interactions. Taking into account the molecular electronic interaction of both the analytes with each other and an extrinsic semiconductor interface we demonstrate how the presence of one gas can enhance or diminish the reversible interaction of a second gas with the extrinsic semiconductor interface. These concepts demonstrate important considerations in the array-based formats for multi-gas sensing and its applications.

  6. Multi-gas interaction modeling on decorated semiconductor interfaces: A novel Fermi distribution-based response isotherm and the inverse hard/soft acid/base concept

    Laminack, William; Gole, James

    2015-12-01

    A unique MEMS/NEMS approach is presented for the modeling of a detection platform for mixed gas interactions. Mixed gas analytes interact with nanostructured decorating metal oxide island sites supported on a microporous silicon substrate. The Inverse Hard/Soft acid/base (IHSAB) concept is used to assess a diversity of conductometric responses for mixed gas interactions as a function of these nanostructured metal oxides. The analyte conductometric responses are well represented using a combination diffusion/absorption-based model for multi-gas interactions where a newly developed response absorption isotherm, based on the Fermi distribution function is applied. A further coupling of this model with the IHSAB concept describes the considerations in modeling of multi-gas mixed analyte-interface, and analyte-analyte interactions. Taking into account the molecular electronic interaction of both the analytes with each other and an extrinsic semiconductor interface we demonstrate how the presence of one gas can enhance or diminish the reversible interaction of a second gas with the extrinsic semiconductor interface. These concepts demonstrate important considerations in the array-based formats for multi-gas sensing and its applications.

  7. Mechanism-based population modelling for assessment of L-cell function based on total GLP-1 response following an oral glucose tolerance test

    Møller, Jonas B.; Jusko, William J.; Gao, Wei

    2011-01-01

    was to build a mechanism-based population model that describes the time course of total GLP-1 and provides indices for capability of secretion in each subject. The goal was thus to model the secretion of GLP-1, and not its effect on insulin production. Single 75 g doses of glucose were administered orally......GLP-1 is an insulinotropic hormone that synergistically with glucose gives rise to an increased insulin response. Its secretion is increased following a meal and it is thus of interest to describe the secretion of this hormone following an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT). The aim of this study....... The individual estimates of absorption rate constants were used in the model for GLP-1 secretion. Estimation of parameters was performed using the FOCE method with interaction implemented in NONMEM VI. The final transit/indirect-response model obtained for GLP-1 production following an OGTT included two...

  8. Process-based modeling of species' responses to climate change - a proof of concept using western North American trees

    Evans, M. E.; Merow, C.; Record, S.; Menlove, J.; Gray, A.; Cundiff, J.; McMahon, S.; Enquist, B. J.

    2013-12-01

    Current attempts to forecast how species' distributions will change in response to climate change suffer under a fundamental trade-off: between modeling many species superficially vs. few species in detail (between correlative vs. mechanistic models). The goals of this talk are two-fold: first, we present a Bayesian multilevel modeling framework, dynamic range modeling (DRM), for building process-based forecasts of many species' distributions at a time, designed to address the trade-off between detail and number of distribution forecasts. In contrast to 'species distribution modeling' or 'niche modeling', which uses only species' occurrence data and environmental data, DRMs draw upon demographic data, abundance data, trait data, occurrence data, and GIS layers of climate in a single framework to account for two processes known to influence range dynamics - demography and dispersal. The vision is to use extensive databases on plant demography, distributions, and traits - in the Botanical Information and Ecology Network, the Forest Inventory and Analysis database (FIA), and the International Tree Ring Data Bank - to develop DRMs for North American trees. Second, we present preliminary results from building the core submodel of a DRM - an integral projection model (IPM) - for a sample of dominant tree species in western North America. IPMs are used to infer demographic niches - i.e., the set of environmental conditions under which population growth rate is positive - and project population dynamics through time. Based on >550,000 data points derived from FIA for nine tree species in western North America, we show IPM-based models of their current and future distributions, and discuss how IPMs can be used to forecast future forest productivity, mortality patterns, and inform efforts at assisted migration.

  9. A method for physically based model analysis of conjunctive use in response to potential climate changes

    Hanson, R.T.; Flint, L.E.; Flint, A.L.; Dettinger, M.D.; Faunt, C.C.; Cayan, D.; Schmid, W.

    2012-01-01

    Potential climate change effects on aspects of conjunctive management of water resources can be evaluated by linking climate models with fully integrated groundwater-surface water models. The objective of this study is to develop a modeling system that links global climate models with regional hydrologic models, using the California Central Valley as a case study. The new method is a supply and demand modeling framework that can be used to simulate and analyze potential climate change and conjunctive use. Supply-constrained and demand-driven linkages in the water system in the Central Valley are represented with the linked climate models, precipitation-runoff models, agricultural and native vegetation water use, and hydrologic flow models to demonstrate the feasibility of this method. Simulated precipitation and temperature were used from the GFDL-A2 climate change scenario through the 21st century to drive a regional water balance mountain hydrologic watershed model (MHWM) for the surrounding watersheds in combination with a regional integrated hydrologic model of the Central Valley (CVHM). Application of this method demonstrates the potential transition from predominantly surface water to groundwater supply for agriculture with secondary effects that may limit this transition of conjunctive use. The particular scenario considered includes intermittent climatic droughts in the first half of the 21st century followed by severe persistent droughts in the second half of the 21st century. These climatic droughts do not yield a valley-wide operational drought but do cause reduced surface water deliveries and increased groundwater abstractions that may cause additional land subsidence, reduced water for riparian habitat, or changes in flows at the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta. The method developed here can be used to explore conjunctive use adaptation options and hydrologic risk assessments in regional hydrologic systems throughout the world.

  10. Decoupling of modeling and measuring interval in groundwater time series analysis based on response characteristics

    Berendrecht, W.L.; Heemink, A.W.; Geer, F.C. van; Gehrels, J.C.

    2003-01-01

    A state-space representation of the transfer function-noise (TFN) model allows the choice of a modeling (input) interval that is smaller than the measuring interval of the output variable. Since in geohydrological applications the interval of the available input series (precipitation excess) is

  11. Pavement mechanic response of sulfate saline soil subgrade section based on fluid–structure interaction model

    Xueying Zhao; Aiqin Shen; Yinchuang Guo; Peng Li; Zhenhua Lv

    2017-01-01

    It is a consensus that salt heaving and frost heaving are urgent and typical distress in the sulfate saline soil area. To further investigate the microscopic performance of pavement structure in this special area, Jinan-Dongying Freeway in Shandong Province is selected as a case study engineering and the mechanic responses under salt heaving, frost heaving and traffic loads were analyzed through the finite element (FE) Program (ANSYS). In this paper, the process of salt heaving and frost heav...

  12. Sensitivity Analysis of an ENteric Immunity SImulator (ENISI)-Based Model of Immune Responses to Helicobacter pylori Infection.

    Alam, Maksudul; Deng, Xinwei; Philipson, Casandra; Bassaganya-Riera, Josep; Bisset, Keith; Carbo, Adria; Eubank, Stephen; Hontecillas, Raquel; Hoops, Stefan; Mei, Yongguo; Abedi, Vida; Marathe, Madhav

    2015-01-01

    Agent-based models (ABM) are widely used to study immune systems, providing a procedural and interactive view of the underlying system. The interaction of components and the behavior of individual objects is described procedurally as a function of the internal states and the local interactions, which are often stochastic in nature. Such models typically have complex structures and consist of a large number of modeling parameters. Determining the key modeling parameters which govern the outcomes of the system is very challenging. Sensitivity analysis plays a vital role in quantifying the impact of modeling parameters in massively interacting systems, including large complex ABM. The high computational cost of executing simulations impedes running experiments with exhaustive parameter settings. Existing techniques of analyzing such a complex system typically focus on local sensitivity analysis, i.e. one parameter at a time, or a close "neighborhood" of particular parameter settings. However, such methods are not adequate to measure the uncertainty and sensitivity of parameters accurately because they overlook the global impacts of parameters on the system. In this article, we develop novel experimental design and analysis techniques to perform both global and local sensitivity analysis of large-scale ABMs. The proposed method can efficiently identify the most significant parameters and quantify their contributions to outcomes of the system. We demonstrate the proposed methodology for ENteric Immune SImulator (ENISI), a large-scale ABM environment, using a computational model of immune responses to Helicobacter pylori colonization of the gastric mucosa.

  13. Hydrologic response to multimodel climate output using a physically based model of groundwater/surface water interactions

    Sulis, M.; Paniconi, C.; Marrocu, M.; Huard, D.; Chaumont, D.

    2012-12-01

    General circulation models (GCMs) are the primary instruments for obtaining projections of future global climate change. Outputs from GCMs, aided by dynamical and/or statistical downscaling techniques, have long been used to simulate changes in regional climate systems over wide spatiotemporal scales. Numerous studies have acknowledged the disagreements between the various GCMs and between the different downscaling methods designed to compensate for the mismatch between climate model output and the spatial scale at which hydrological models are applied. Very little is known, however, about the importance of these differences once they have been input or assimilated by a nonlinear hydrological model. This issue is investigated here at the catchment scale using a process-based model of integrated surface and subsurface hydrologic response driven by outputs from 12 members of a multimodel climate ensemble. The data set consists of daily values of precipitation and min/max temperatures obtained by combining four regional climate models and five GCMs. The regional scenarios were downscaled using a quantile scaling bias-correction technique. The hydrologic response was simulated for the 690 km2des Anglais catchment in southwestern Quebec, Canada. The results show that different hydrological components (river discharge, aquifer recharge, and soil moisture storage) respond differently to precipitation and temperature anomalies in the multimodel climate output, with greater variability for annual discharge compared to recharge and soil moisture storage. We also find that runoff generation and extreme event-driven peak hydrograph flows are highly sensitive to any uncertainty in climate data. Finally, the results show the significant impact of changing sequences of rainy days on groundwater recharge fluxes and the influence of longer dry spells in modifying soil moisture spatial variability.

  14. Dynamic Price Vector Formation Model-Based Automatic Demand Response Strategy for PV-Assisted EV Charging Stations

    Chen, Qifang; Wang, Fei; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Zhang, Jianhua; Li, Zhigang; Shafie-Khah, Miadreza; Catalao, Joao P. S.

    2017-11-01

    A real-time price (RTP)-based automatic demand response (ADR) strategy for PV-assisted electric vehicle (EV) Charging Station (PVCS) without vehicle to grid is proposed. The charging process is modeled as a dynamic linear program instead of the normal day-ahead and real-time regulation strategy, to capture the advantages of both global and real-time optimization. Different from conventional price forecasting algorithms, a dynamic price vector formation model is proposed based on a clustering algorithm to form an RTP vector for a particular day. A dynamic feasible energy demand region (DFEDR) model considering grid voltage profiles is designed to calculate the lower and upper bounds. A deduction method is proposed to deal with the unknown information of future intervals, such as the actual stochastic arrival and departure times of EVs, which make the DFEDR model suitable for global optimization. Finally, both the comparative cases articulate the advantages of the developed methods and the validity in reducing electricity costs, mitigating peak charging demand, and improving PV self-consumption of the proposed strategy are verified through simulation scenarios.

  15. Simulating Durum Wheat (Triticum turgidum L. Response to Root Zone Salinity based on Statistics and Macroscopic Models

    Vahid Reza Jalali

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Introduction Salinity as an abiotic stress can cause excessive disturbance for seed germination and plant sustainable production. Salinity with three different mechanisms of osmotic potential reduction, ionic toxicity and disturbance of plant nutritional balance, can reduce performance of the final product. Planning for optimal use of available water and saline water with poor quality in agricultural activities is of great importance. Wheat is one of the eight main food sources including rice, corn, sugar beet, cattle, sorghum, millet and cassava which provide 70-90% of all calories and 66-90% of the protein consumed in developing countries. Durum wheat (Triticum turgidum L. is an important crop grows in some arid and semi-arid areas of the world such as Middle East and North Africa. In these regions, in addition to soil salinity, sharp decline in rainfall and a sharp drop in groundwater levels in recent years has emphasized on the efficient use of limited soil and water resources. Consequently, in order to use brackish water for agricultural productions, it is required to analyze its quantitative response to salinity stress by simulation models in those regions. The objective of this study is to assess the capability of statistics and macro-simulation models of yield in saline conditions. Materials and methods In this study, two general approach of simulation includes process-physical models and statistical-experimental models were investigated. For this purpose, in order to quantify the salinity effect on seed relative yield of durum wheat (Behrang Variety at different levels of soil salinity, process-physical models of Maas & Hoffman, van Genuchten & Hoffman, Dirksen et al. and Homaee et al. models were used. Also, statistical-experimental models of Modified Gompertz Function, Bi-Exponential Function and Modified Weibull Function were used too. In order to get closer to real conditions of growth circumstances in saline soils, a natural saline

  16. Sharing experiences: towards an evidence based model of dengue surveillance and outbreak response in Latin America and Asia.

    Badurdeen, Shiraz; Valladares, David Benitez; Farrar, Jeremy; Gozzer, Ernesto; Kroeger, Axel; Kuswara, Novia; Ranzinger, Silvia Runge; Tinh, Hien Tran; Leite, Priscila; Mahendradhata, Yodi; Skewes, Ronald; Verrall, Ayesha

    2013-06-24

    The increasing frequency and intensity of dengue outbreaks in endemic and non-endemic countries requires a rational, evidence based response. To this end, we aimed to collate the experiences of a number of affected countries, identify strengths and limitations in dengue surveillance, outbreak preparedness, detection and response and contribute towards the development of a model contingency plan adaptable to country needs. The study was undertaken in five Latin American (Brazil, Colombia, Dominican Republic, Mexico, Peru) and five in Asian countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Maldives, Sri Lanka, Vietnam). A mixed-methods approach was used which included document analysis, key informant interviews, focus-group discussions, secondary data analysis and consensus building by an international dengue expert meeting organised by the World Health Organization, Special Program for Research and Training in Tropical Diseases (WHO-TDR). Country information on dengue is based on compulsory notification and reporting ("passive surveillance"), with laboratory confirmation (in all participating Latin American countries and some Asian countries) or by using a clinical syndromic definition. Seven countries additionally had sentinel sites with active dengue reporting, some also had virological surveillance. Six had agreed a formal definition of a dengue outbreak separate to seasonal variation in case numbers. Countries collected data on a range of warning signs that may identify outbreaks early, but none had developed a systematic approach to identifying and responding to the early stages of an outbreak. Outbreak response plans varied in quality, particularly regarding the early response. The surge capacity of hospitals with recent dengue outbreaks varied; those that could mobilise additional staff, beds, laboratory support and resources coped best in comparison to those improvising a coping strategy during the outbreak. Hospital outbreak management plans were present in 9

  17. Nonnative plant response to silvicultural treatments: A model based on disturbance, propagule pressure, and competitive abilities

    Steve Sutherland; Cara R. Nelson

    2010-01-01

    Invasion by nonnative plants can result in substantial adverse effects on the functions of native forest ecosystems, including nutrient cycling and fire regimes. Thus, forest managers need to be aware of the potential impacts of management activities, including silvicultural treatments, on nonnative vegetation. To aid in that effort, we created a conceptual model of...

  18. Measuring client experiences in maternity care under change: development of a questionnaire based on the WHO Responsiveness model.

    Marisja Scheerhagen

    Full Text Available Maternity care is an integrated care process, which consists of different services, involves different professionals and covers different time windows. To measure performance of maternity care based on clients' experiences, we developed and validated a questionnaire.We used the 8-domain WHO Responsiveness model, and previous materials to develop a self-report questionnaire. A dual study design was used for development and validation. Content validity of the ReproQ-version-0 was determined through structured interviews with 11 pregnant women (≥28 weeks, 10 women who recently had given birth (≤12 weeks, and 19 maternity care professionals. Structured interviews established the domain relevance to the women; all items were separately commented on. All Responsiveness domains were judged relevant, with Dignity and Communication ranking highest. Main missing topic was the assigned expertise of the health professional. After first adaptation, construct validity of the ReproQ-version-1 was determined through a web-based survey. Respondents were approached by maternity care organizations with different levels of integration of services of midwives and obstetricians. We sent questionnaires to 605 third trimester pregnant women (response 65%, and 810 women 6 weeks after delivery (response 55%. Construct validity was based on: response patterns; exploratory factor analysis; association of the overall score with a Visual Analogue Scale (VAS, known group comparisons. Median overall ReproQ score was 3.70 (range 1-4 showing good responsiveness. The exploratory factor analysis supported the assumed domain structure and suggested several adaptations. Correlation of the VAS rating and overall ReproQ score (antepartum, postpartum supported validity (r = 0.56; 0.59, p<0.001 Spearman's correlation coefficient. Pre-stated group comparisons confirmed the expected difference following a good vs. adverse birth outcome. Fully integrated organizations performed

  19. Deploying wildland fire suppression resources with a scenario-based standard response model

    Robert G. Haight; Jeremy S. Fried

    2007-01-01

    Wildland fire managers deploy suppression resources to bases and dispatch them to fires to maximize the percentage of fires that are successfully contained before unacceptable costs and losses occur. Deployment is made with budget constraints and uncertainty about the daily number, location, and intensity of fires, all of which affect initial-attack success. To address...

  20. Is harm reduction profitable? An analytical framework for corporate social responsibility based on an epidemic model of addictive consumption.

    Massin, Sophie

    2012-06-01

    This article aims to help resolve the apparent paradox of producers of addictive goods who claim to be socially responsible while marketing a product clearly identified as harmful. It advances that reputation effects are crucial in this issue and that determining whether harm reduction practices are costly or profitable for the producers can help to assess the sincerity of their discourse. An analytical framework based on an epidemic model of addictive consumption that includes a deterrent effect of heavy use on initiation is developed. This framework enables us to establish a clear distinction between a simple responsible discourse and genuine harm reduction practices and, among harm reduction practices, between use reduction practices and micro harm reduction practices. Using simulations based on tobacco sales in France from 1950 to 2008, we explore the impact of three corresponding types of actions: communication on damage, restraining selling practices and development of safer products on total sales and on the social cost. We notably find that restraining selling practices toward light users, that is, preventing light users from escalating to heavy use, can be profitable for the producer, especially at early stages of the epidemic, but that such practices also contribute to increase the social cost. These results suggest that the existence of a deterrent effect of heavy use on the initiation of the consumption of an addictive good can shed new light on important issues, such as the motivations for corporate social responsibility and the definition of responsible actions in the particular case of harm reduction. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Modeling human auditory evoked brainstem responses based on nonlinear cochlear processing

    Harte, James; Rønne, Filip Munch; Dau, Torsten

    2010-01-01

    . To generate AEPs recorded at remote locations, a convolution was made on an empirically obtained elementary unit waveform with the instantaneous discharge rate function for the corresponding AN unit. AEPs to click-trains, as well as to tone pulses at various frequencies, were both modelled and recorded...... at different stimulation levels and repetition rates. The observed nonlinearities in the recorded potential patterns, with respect to ABR wave V latencies and amplitudes, could be largely accounted for by level-dependent BM processing as well as effects of short-term neural adaptation. The present study...

  2. Structural Damage Detection using Frequency Response Function Index and Surrogate Model Based on Optimized Extreme Learning Machine Algorithm

    R. Ghiasi

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Utilizing surrogate models based on artificial intelligence methods for detecting structural damages has attracted the attention of many researchers in recent decades. In this study, a new kernel based on Littlewood-Paley Wavelet (LPW is proposed for Extreme Learning Machine (ELM algorithm to improve the accuracy of detecting multiple damages in structural systems.  ELM is used as metamodel (surrogate model of exact finite element analysis of structures in order to efficiently reduce the computational cost through updating process. In the proposed two-step method, first a damage index, based on Frequency Response Function (FRF of the structure, is used to identify the location of damages. In the second step, the severity of damages in identified elements is detected using ELM. In order to evaluate the efficacy of ELM, the results obtained from the proposed kernel were compared with other kernels proposed for ELM as well as Least Square Support Vector Machine algorithm. The solved numerical problems indicated that ELM algorithm accuracy in detecting structural damages is increased drastically in case of using LPW kernel.

  3. A Study on the Response Characteristics of a Fiber-Optic Radiation Sensor Model Based on Cerenkov Principle

    Han, Hwa Jeong; Kim, Beom Kyu; Park, Byung Gi [Soonchunhyang Univ., Asan (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-10-15

    In recent year, various fiber-optic radiation sensors using Cerenkov principle have been developed without employing any scintillators for measuring high-energy photon, electron, etc. The main advantages of the optical fibers are the remote transmission of the light signal and immunity to pressure and electromagnetic waves. Therefore, the sensors utilizing the optical fibers can be used in hazardous radiation environments, such as the high-level radiation areas of a nuclear facility. The study to be simulated a fiber-optic radiation sensor based on Cerenkov principle and to be analyzed the response characteristics of the sensor. For the aforementioned study, the GEANT simulation toolkit was used. It is able to take into all the optical properties of fibers and is found to be appropriate to realistically describe the response of fiber-optic radiation sensor. In the recently, the fiber-optic radiation sensor have been developed in nuclear industry. Because sensor can detect gamma ray in harsh nuclear environments. In this study, we analyzed response characteristics of the fiber-optic radiation sensor. We have simulated the Monte Carlo model, for detecting the Cerenkov radiation using the fiber-optic radiation sensor. And the y-axis distribution of Cerenkov photons was obtained using output file. Simulation is performed with reference to the method of the previous research, and then the simulation results exhibited a good agreement with the previous research.

  4. A Study on the Response Characteristics of a Fiber-Optic Radiation Sensor Model Based on Cerenkov Principle

    Han, Hwa Jeong; Kim, Beom Kyu; Park, Byung Gi

    2016-01-01

    In recent year, various fiber-optic radiation sensors using Cerenkov principle have been developed without employing any scintillators for measuring high-energy photon, electron, etc. The main advantages of the optical fibers are the remote transmission of the light signal and immunity to pressure and electromagnetic waves. Therefore, the sensors utilizing the optical fibers can be used in hazardous radiation environments, such as the high-level radiation areas of a nuclear facility. The study to be simulated a fiber-optic radiation sensor based on Cerenkov principle and to be analyzed the response characteristics of the sensor. For the aforementioned study, the GEANT simulation toolkit was used. It is able to take into all the optical properties of fibers and is found to be appropriate to realistically describe the response of fiber-optic radiation sensor. In the recently, the fiber-optic radiation sensor have been developed in nuclear industry. Because sensor can detect gamma ray in harsh nuclear environments. In this study, we analyzed response characteristics of the fiber-optic radiation sensor. We have simulated the Monte Carlo model, for detecting the Cerenkov radiation using the fiber-optic radiation sensor. And the y-axis distribution of Cerenkov photons was obtained using output file. Simulation is performed with reference to the method of the previous research, and then the simulation results exhibited a good agreement with the previous research

  5. The Mutyh base excision repair gene influences the inflammatory response in a mouse model of ulcerative colitis.

    Ida Casorelli

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The Mutyh DNA glycosylase is involved in the repair of oxidized DNA bases. Mutations in the human MUTYH gene are responsible for colorectal cancer in familial adenomatous polyposis. Since defective DNA repair genes might contribute to the increased cancer risk associated with inflammatory bowel diseases, we compared the inflammatory response of wild-type and Mutyh(-/- mice to oxidative stress. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The severity of colitis, changes in expression of genes involved in DNA repair and inflammation, DNA 8-oxoguanine levels and microsatellite instability were analysed in colon of mice treated with dextran sulfate sodium (DSS. The Mutyh(-/- phenotype was associated with a significant accumulation of 8-oxoguanine in colon DNA of treated mice. A single DSS cycle induced severe acute ulcerative colitis in wild-type mice, whereas lesions were modest in Mutyh(-/- mice, and this was associated with moderate variations in the expression of several cytokines. Eight DSS cycles caused chronic colitis in both wild-type and Mutyh(-/- mice. Lymphoid hyperplasia and a significant reduction in Foxp3(+ regulatory T cells were observed only in Mutyh(-/- mice. CONCLUSIONS: The findings indicate that, in this model of ulcerative colitis, Mutyh plays a major role in maintaining intestinal integrity by affecting the inflammatory response.

  6. Response of Water Use Efficiency to Global Environmental Change Based on Output From Terrestrial Biosphere Models

    Zhou, Sha [Tsinghua Univ., Beijing (China); Yu, Bofu [Griffith Univ., Nathan Queensland (Australia); Schwalm, Christopher R. [Woods Hole Research Center, Falmouth, MA (United States); Northern Arizona Univ., Flagstaff, AZ (United States); Ciais, Philippe [Lab. des Sciences du Climat et de l' Environnement, Gif-sur-Yvette (France); Zhang, Yao [Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK (United States); Fisher, Joshua B. [California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA (United States); Michalak, Anna M. [Carnegie Institution for Science, Stanford, CA (United States); Wang, Weile [California State Uni., Monterey Bay, Seasid, CA (United States); Poulter, Benjamin [Montana State Univ., Bozeman, MT (United States); Huntzinger, Deborah N. [Northern Arizona Univ., Flagstaff, AZ (United States); Niu, Shuli [Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Beijing (China); Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing (China); Mao, Jiafu [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Jain, Atul [Univ. of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL (United States); Ricciuto, Daniel M. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Shi, Xiaoying [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Ito, Akihiko [Tohoku Univ., Sendai (Japan); Wei, Yaxing [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Huang, Yuefei [Tsinghua Univ., Beijing (China); Qinghai Univ., Xining (China); Wang, Guangqian [Tsinghua Univ., Beijing (China)

    2017-10-18

    Here, water use efficiency (WUE), defined as the ratio of gross primary productivity and evapotranspiration at the ecosystem scale, is a critical variable linking the carbon and water cycles. Incorporating a dependency on vapor pressure deficit, apparent underlying WUE (uWUE) provides a better indicator of how terrestrial ecosystems respond to environmental changes than other WUE formulations. Here we used 20th century simulations from four terrestrial biosphere models to develop a novel variance decomposition method. With this method, we attributed variations in apparent uWUE to both the trend and interannual variation of environmental drivers. The secular increase in atmospheric CO2 explained a clear majority of total variation (66 ± 32%: mean ± one standard deviation), followed by positive trends in nitrogen deposition and climate, as well as a negative trend in land use change. In contrast, interannual variation was mostly driven by interannual climate variability. To analyze the mechanism of the CO2 effect, we partitioned the apparent uWUE into the transpiration ratio (transpiration over evapotranspiration) and potential uWUE. The relative increase in potential uWUE parallels that of CO2, but this direct CO2 effect was offset by 20 ± 4% by changes in ecosystem structure, that is, leaf area index for different vegetation types. However, the decrease in transpiration due to stomatal closure with rising CO2 was reduced by 84% by an increase in leaf area index, resulting in small changes in the transpiration ratio. CO2 concentration thus plays a dominant role in driving apparent uWUE variations over time, but its role differs for the two constituent components: potential uWUE and transpiration.

  7. Response of Water Use Efficiency to Global Environmental Change Based on Output From Terrestrial Biosphere Models

    Zhou, Sha; Yu, Bofu; Schwalm, Christopher R.; Ciais, Philippe; Zhang, Yao; Fisher, Joshua B.; Michalak, Anna M.; Wang, Weile; Poulter, Benjamin; Huntzinger, Deborah N.; Niu, Shuli; Mao, Jiafu; Jain, Atul; Ricciuto, Daniel M.; Shi, Xiaoying; Ito, Akihiko; Wei, Yaxing; Huang, Yuefei; Wang, Guangqian

    2017-11-01

    Water use efficiency (WUE), defined as the ratio of gross primary productivity and evapotranspiration at the ecosystem scale, is a critical variable linking the carbon and water cycles. Incorporating a dependency on vapor pressure deficit, apparent underlying WUE (uWUE) provides a better indicator of how terrestrial ecosystems respond to environmental changes than other WUE formulations. Here we used 20th century simulations from four terrestrial biosphere models to develop a novel variance decomposition method. With this method, we attributed variations in apparent uWUE to both the trend and interannual variation of environmental drivers. The secular increase in atmospheric CO2 explained a clear majority of total variation (66 ± 32%: mean ± one standard deviation), followed by positive trends in nitrogen deposition and climate, as well as a negative trend in land use change. In contrast, interannual variation was mostly driven by interannual climate variability. To analyze the mechanism of the CO2 effect, we partitioned the apparent uWUE into the transpiration ratio (transpiration over evapotranspiration) and potential uWUE. The relative increase in potential uWUE parallels that of CO2, but this direct CO2 effect was offset by 20 ± 4% by changes in ecosystem structure, that is, leaf area index for different vegetation types. However, the decrease in transpiration due to stomatal closure with rising CO2 was reduced by 84% by an increase in leaf area index, resulting in small changes in the transpiration ratio. CO2 concentration thus plays a dominant role in driving apparent uWUE variations over time, but its role differs for the two constituent components: potential uWUE and transpiration.

  8. Radiogenomics and radiotherapy response modeling

    El Naqa, Issam; Kerns, Sarah L.; Coates, James; Luo, Yi; Speers, Corey; West, Catharine M. L.; Rosenstein, Barry S.; Ten Haken, Randall K.

    2017-08-01

    Advances in patient-specific information and biotechnology have contributed to a new era of computational medicine. Radiogenomics has emerged as a new field that investigates the role of genetics in treatment response to radiation therapy. Radiation oncology is currently attempting to embrace these recent advances and add to its rich history by maintaining its prominent role as a quantitative leader in oncologic response modeling. Here, we provide an overview of radiogenomics starting with genotyping, data aggregation, and application of different modeling approaches based on modifying traditional radiobiological methods or application of advanced machine learning techniques. We highlight the current status and potential for this new field to reshape the landscape of outcome modeling in radiotherapy and drive future advances in computational oncology.

  9. Modelling sequentially scored item responses

    Akkermans, W.

    2000-01-01

    The sequential model can be used to describe the variable resulting from a sequential scoring process. In this paper two more item response models are investigated with respect to their suitability for sequential scoring: the partial credit model and the graded response model. The investigation is

  10. Component-Based Modelling for Scalable Smart City Systems Interoperability: A Case Study on Integrating Energy Demand Response Systems.

    Palomar, Esther; Chen, Xiaohong; Liu, Zhiming; Maharjan, Sabita; Bowen, Jonathan

    2016-10-28

    Smart city systems embrace major challenges associated with climate change, energy efficiency, mobility and future services by embedding the virtual space into a complex cyber-physical system. Those systems are constantly evolving and scaling up, involving a wide range of integration among users, devices, utilities, public services and also policies. Modelling such complex dynamic systems' architectures has always been essential for the development and application of techniques/tools to support design and deployment of integration of new components, as well as for the analysis, verification, simulation and testing to ensure trustworthiness. This article reports on the definition and implementation of a scalable component-based architecture that supports a cooperative energy demand response (DR) system coordinating energy usage between neighbouring households. The proposed architecture, called refinement of Cyber-Physical Component Systems (rCPCS), which extends the refinement calculus for component and object system (rCOS) modelling method, is implemented using Eclipse Extensible Coordination Tools (ECT), i.e., Reo coordination language. With rCPCS implementation in Reo, we specify the communication, synchronisation and co-operation amongst the heterogeneous components of the system assuring, by design scalability and the interoperability, correctness of component cooperation.

  11. Testing a bioenergetics-based habitat choice model: bluegill (Lepomis macrochirus) responses to food availability and temperature

    2011-01-01

    Using an automated shuttlebox system, we conducted patch choice experiments with 32, 8–12 g bluegill sunfish (Lepomis macrochirus) to test a behavioral energetics hypothesis of habitat choice. When patch temperature and food levels were held constant within patches but different between patches, we expected bluegill to choose patches that maximized growth based on the bioenergetic integration of food and temperature as predicted by a bioenergetics model. Alternative hypotheses were that bluegill may choose patches based only on food (optimal foraging) or temperature (behavioral thermoregulation). The behavioral energetics hypothesis was not a good predictor of short-term (from minutes to weeks) patch choice by bluegill; the behavioral thermoregulation hypothesis was the best predictor. In the short-term, food and temperature appeared to affect patch choice hierarchically; temperature was more important, although food can alter temperature preference during feeding periods. Over a 19-d experiment, mean temperatures occupied by fish offered low rations did decline as predicted by the behavioral energetics hypothesis, but the decline was less than 1.0 °C as opposed to a possible 5 °C decline. A short-term, bioenergetic response to food and temperature may be precluded by physiological costs of acclimation not considered explicitly in the behavioral energetics hypothesis.

  12. A Fuzzy Modeling Approach for Replicated Response Measures Based on Fuzzification of Replications with Descriptive Statistics and Golden Ratio

    Özlem TÜRKŞEN

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Some of the experimental designs can be composed of replicated response measures in which the replications cannot be identified exactly and may have uncertainty different than randomness. Then, the classical regression analysis may not be proper to model the designed data because of the violation of probabilistic modeling assumptions. In this case, fuzzy regression analysis can be used as a modeling tool. In this study, the replicated response values are newly formed to fuzzy numbers by using descriptive statistics of replications and golden ratio. The main aim of the study is obtaining the most suitable fuzzy model for replicated response measures through fuzzification of the replicated values by taking into account the data structure of the replications in statistical framework. Here, the response and unknown model coefficients are considered as triangular type-1 fuzzy numbers (TT1FNs whereas the inputs are crisp. Predicted fuzzy models are obtained according to the proposed fuzzification rules by using Fuzzy Least Squares (FLS approach. The performances of the predicted fuzzy models are compared by using Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE criteria. A data set from the literature, called wheel cover component data set, is used to illustrate the performance of the proposed approach and the obtained results are discussed. The calculation results show that the combined formulation of the descriptive statistics and the golden ratio is the most preferable fuzzification rule according to the well-known decision making method, called TOPSIS, for the data set.

  13. Response Styles in the Partial Credit Model

    Tutz, Gerhard; Schauberger, Gunther; Berger, Moritz

    2016-01-01

    In the modelling of ordinal responses in psychological measurement and survey- based research, response styles that represent specific answering patterns of respondents are typically ignored. One consequence is that estimates of item parameters can be poor and considerably biased. The focus here is on the modelling of a tendency to extreme or middle categories. An extension of the Partial Credit Model is proposed that explicitly accounts for this specific response style. In contrast to exi...

  14. Psychological first-aid training for paraprofessionals: a systems-based model for enhancing capacity of rural emergency responses.

    McCabe, O Lee; Perry, Charlene; Azur, Melissa; Taylor, Henry G; Bailey, Mark; Links, Jonathan M

    2011-08-01

    consider LHDs, FBOs, and AHCs as partners to work effectively within the span of a six-month period to design, promote, conduct, and evaluate a model of capacity/capability building for public mental health emergency response based on a professional "extender" rationale. Moreover, consistently high levels of perceived self-efficacy as PFA responders can be achieved with lay members of the community who receive a specially-designed, one-day training program in crisis intervention and referral strategies for disaster survivors.

  15. A model of the radiation-induced bystander effect based on an analogy with ferromagnets. Application to modelling tissue response in a uniform field

    Vassiliev, O. N.

    2014-12-01

    We propose a model of the radiation-induced bystander effect based on an analogy with magnetic systems. The main benefit of this approach is that it allowed us to apply powerful methods of statistical mechanics. The model exploits the similarity between how spin-spin interactions result in correlations of spin states in ferromagnets, and how signalling from a damaged cell reduces chances of survival of neighbour cells, resulting in correlated cell states. At the root of the model is a classical Hamiltonian, similar to that of an Ising ferromagnet with long-range interactions. The formalism is developed in the framework of the Mean Field Theory. It is applied to modelling tissue response in a uniform radiation field. In this case the results are remarkably simple and at the same time nontrivial. They include cell survival curves, expressions for the tumour control probability and effects of fractionation. The model extends beyond of what is normally considered as bystander effects. It offers an insight into low-dose hypersensitivity and into mechanisms behind threshold doses for deterministic effects.

  16. Processing of recognition information and additional cues: A model-based analysis of choice, confidence, and response time

    Andreas Glockner

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Research on the processing of recognition information has focused on testing the recognition heuristic (RH. On the aggregate, the noncompensatory use of recognition information postulated by the RH was rejected in several studies, while RH could still account for a considerable proportion of choices. These results can be explained if either a a part of the subjects used RH or b nobody used it but its choice predictions were accidentally in line with predictions of the strategy used. In the current study, which exemplifies a new approach to model testing, we determined individuals' decision strategies based on a maximum-likelihood classification method, taking into account choices, response times and confidence ratings simultaneously. Unlike most previous studies of the RH, our study tested the RH under conditions in which we provided information about cue values of unrecognized objects (which we argue is fairly common and thus of some interest. For 77.5% of the subjects, overall behavior was best explained by a compensatory parallel constraint satisfaction (PCS strategy. The proportion of subjects using an enhanced RH heuristic (RHe was negligible (up to 7.5%; 15% of the subjects seemed to use a take the best strategy (TTB. A more-fine grained analysis of the supplemental behavioral parameters conditional on strategy use supports PCS but calls into question process assumptions for apparent users of RH, RHe, and TTB within our experimental context. Our results are consistent with previous literature highlighting the importance of individual strategy classification as compared to aggregated analyses.

  17. Simulating residential demand response: Improving socio-technical assumptions in activity-based models of energy demand

    McKenna, E.; Higginson, S.; Grunewald, P.; Darby, S. J.

    2017-01-01

    Demand response is receiving increasing interest as a new form of flexibility within low-carbon power systems. Energy models are an important tool to assess the potential capability of demand side contributions. This paper critically reviews the assumptions in current models and introduces a new conceptual framework to better facilitate such an assessment. We propose three dimensions along which change could occur, namely technology, activities and service expectations. Using this framework, ...

  18. Using risk based tools in emergency response

    Dixon, B.W.; Ferns, K.G.

    1987-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) techniques are used by the nuclear industry to model the potential response of a reactor subjected to unusual conditions. The knowledge contained in these models can aid in emergency response decision making. This paper presents requirements for a PRA based emergency response support system to date. A brief discussion of published work provides background for a detailed description of recent developments. A rapid deep assessment capability for specific portions of full plant models is presented. The program uses a screening rule base to control search space expansion in a combinational algorithm

  19. A complex bid model and strategy for dispatchable loads in real-time market-based demand response

    Babar, M.; Nguyen, P.H.; Cuk, V.; Kamphuis, I.G.; Kling, W.L.

    2014-01-01

    The power system is moving into the new era of Smart Grid with the help of advance ICT and other developed technologies. These advancements made the demand response as an integral part of power and energy systems. Nowadays, the concept of Energy bidding is emerging in the Market-based Demand

  20. Multifunctional Analysis of CD4+ T-Cell Response as Immune-Based Model for Tuberculosis Detection

    Miriam Lichtner

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Mono- and multifunctional specific CD4+ and CD8+ T-cell responses were evaluated to improve the immune-based detection of active tuberculosis (TB and latent infection (LTBI. We applied flow cytometry to investigate cytokines profile (IFN-γ, TNF-α, and IL-2 of T cells after stimulation with TB antigens in 28 TB-infected subjects (18 active TB and 10 LTBI and 10 uninfected controls. Cytokines production by CD4+ T cells at single-cell levels was higher in TB-infected subjects than uninfected controls P0.45%, it was possible to differentiate TB-infected (>0.45% by uninfected subjects (0.182%. The magnitude of CD8+ T-cell responses showed no differences between active TB and LTBI. Multifunctional CD4+ T-cell responses could have the potential to identify at single time point subjects without TB infection and patients having active or latent TB.

  1. A Micromechanics-Based Elastoplastic Damage Model for Rocks with a Brittle-Ductile Transition in Mechanical Response

    Hu, Kun; Zhu, Qi-zhi; Chen, Liang; Shao, Jian-fu; Liu, Jian

    2018-06-01

    As confining pressure increases, crystalline rocks of moderate porosity usually undergo a transition in failure mode from localized brittle fracture to diffused damage and ductile failure. This transition has been widely reported experimentally for several decades; however, satisfactory modeling is still lacking. The present paper aims at modeling the brittle-ductile transition process of rocks under conventional triaxial compression. Based on quantitative analyses of experimental results, it is found that there is a quite satisfactory linearity between the axial inelastic strain at failure and the confining pressure prescribed. A micromechanics-based frictional damage model is then formulated using an associated plastic flow rule and a strain energy release rate-based damage criterion. The analytical solution to the strong plasticity-damage coupling problem is provided and applied to simulate the nonlinear mechanical behaviors of Tennessee marble, Indiana limestone and Jinping marble, each presenting a brittle-ductile transition in stress-strain curves.

  2. Modelling of SH- and P-SV-wave fields and seismic microzonation based on response spectra for Talchir basin, India

    Mohanty, W.K.; Yanger Walling, M.; Vaccari, F.; Tripathy, T.; Panza, G.F.

    2008-02-01

    The P-SV- and SH-wave field in the Talchir basin is simulated along eight profiles: four profiles strike across the basin and the other four are along the basin. The hybrid method, which combines two computational techniques, modal Summation and finite differences, is used to produce multiphase synthetic seismograms. An M = 6 earthquake is considered, with hypocenter along the North Orissa Boundary Fault (NOBF) at a depth of 5 km and with the focal mechanisms parameters: dip = 90 deg., strike = 160 deg. and rake = 180 deg. The peak acceleration (AMAX) along each profile is determined considering the maximum acceleration obtained at the horizontal components. The response spectra ratio (RSR) as a function of frequency is computed for the eight profiles and the higher amplification is seen to increase in correspondence with the thicker sedimentary cover, especially for the radial component. Higher site amplification for all the profiles is observed in the frequency range from 0.5 to 1.4 Hz. To validate the obtained site-effects, the sources, for the profiles across the basin, are placed near to the southern end of the profile and the site amplifications are recomputed. Even if the spatial distribution of AMAX is mainly controlled by the epicentral distance, i.e. the geometrical spreading prevails on local soil effects, the RSR shows a pattern that can be easily correlated with the local site conditions. The RSR at the intersection of the profiles is dependent not only upon the local lithology and sediment thickness but also upon the epicentral distance. The Talchir basin is classified into three zones based on the RSR values: low RSR zone (1.0 - 1.9), intermediate RSR zone (2.0 - 2.8) and high RSR zone (2.9 - 5.2). The PGA estimated for the bedrock model by Bhatia et al. (1999) for the study region is around 0.05 to 0.10 g while the Indian seismic zonation map estimated it to be in the range from 0.1 to 0.2g. In the present study, that considers the effects of

  3. Estimation of beam material random field properties via sensitivity-based model updating using experimental frequency response functions

    Machado, M. R.; Adhikari, S.; Dos Santos, J. M. C.; Arruda, J. R. F.

    2018-03-01

    Structural parameter estimation is affected not only by measurement noise but also by unknown uncertainties which are present in the system. Deterministic structural model updating methods minimise the difference between experimentally measured data and computational prediction. Sensitivity-based methods are very efficient in solving structural model updating problems. Material and geometrical parameters of the structure such as Poisson's ratio, Young's modulus, mass density, modal damping, etc. are usually considered deterministic and homogeneous. In this paper, the distributed and non-homogeneous characteristics of these parameters are considered in the model updating. The parameters are taken as spatially correlated random fields and are expanded in a spectral Karhunen-Loève (KL) decomposition. Using the KL expansion, the spectral dynamic stiffness matrix of the beam is expanded as a series in terms of discretized parameters, which can be estimated using sensitivity-based model updating techniques. Numerical and experimental tests involving a beam with distributed bending rigidity and mass density are used to verify the proposed method. This extension of standard model updating procedures can enhance the dynamic description of structural dynamic models.

  4. Randomized Item Response Theory Models

    Fox, Gerardus J.A.

    2005-01-01

    The randomized response (RR) technique is often used to obtain answers on sensitive questions. A new method is developed to measure latent variables using the RR technique because direct questioning leads to biased results. Within the RR technique is the probability of the true response modeled by

  5. Process-based modeling of silicate mineral weathering responses to increasing atmospheric CO2 and climate change

    Banwart, Steven A.; Berg, Astrid; Beerling, David J.

    2009-12-01

    A mathematical model describes silicate mineral weathering processes in modern soils located in the boreal coniferous region of northern Europe. The process model results demonstrate a stabilizing biological feedback mechanism between atmospheric CO2 levels and silicate weathering rates as is generally postulated for atmospheric evolution. The process model feedback response agrees within a factor of 2 of that calculated by a weathering feedback function of the type generally employed in global geochemical carbon cycle models of the Earth's Phanerozoic CO2 history. Sensitivity analysis of parameter values in the process model provides insight into the key mechanisms that influence the strength of the biological feedback to weathering. First, the process model accounts for the alkalinity released by weathering, whereby its acceleration stabilizes pH at values that are higher than expected. Although the process model yields faster weathering with increasing temperature, because of activation energy effects on mineral dissolution kinetics at warmer temperature, the mineral dissolution rate laws utilized in the process model also result in lower dissolution rates at higher pH values. Hence, as dissolution rates increase under warmer conditions, more alkalinity is released by the weathering reaction, helping maintain higher pH values thus stabilizing the weathering rate. Second, the process model yields a relatively low sensitivity of soil pH to increasing plant productivity. This is due to more rapid decomposition of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) under warmer conditions. Because DOC fluxes strongly influence the soil water proton balance and pH, this increased decomposition rate dampens the feedback between productivity and weathering. The process model is most sensitive to parameters reflecting soil structure; depth, porosity, and water content. This suggests that the role of biota to influence these characteristics of the weathering profile is as important, if not

  6. Hidden Markov Item Response Theory Models for Responses and Response Times.

    Molenaar, Dylan; Oberski, Daniel; Vermunt, Jeroen; De Boeck, Paul

    2016-01-01

    Current approaches to model responses and response times to psychometric tests solely focus on between-subject differences in speed and ability. Within subjects, speed and ability are assumed to be constants. Violations of this assumption are generally absorbed in the residual of the model. As a result, within-subject departures from the between-subject speed and ability level remain undetected. These departures may be of interest to the researcher as they reflect differences in the response processes adopted on the items of a test. In this article, we propose a dynamic approach for responses and response times based on hidden Markov modeling to account for within-subject differences in responses and response times. A simulation study is conducted to demonstrate acceptable parameter recovery and acceptable performance of various fit indices in distinguishing between different models. In addition, both a confirmatory and an exploratory application are presented to demonstrate the practical value of the modeling approach.

  7. The conceptual model of organization social responsibility

    LUO, Lan; WEI, Jingfu

    2014-01-01

    With the developing of the research of CSR, people more and more deeply noticethat the corporate should take responsibility. Whether other organizations besides corporatesshould not take responsibilities beyond their field? This paper puts forward theconcept of organization social responsibility on the basis of the concept of corporate socialresponsibility and other theories. And the conceptual models are built based on theconception, introducing the OSR from three angles: the types of organi...

  8. Modeling the frequency response of photovoltaic inverters

    Ernauli Christine Aprilia, A.; Cuk, V.; Cobben, J.F.G.; Ribeiro, P.F.; Kling, W.L.

    2012-01-01

    The increased presence of photovoltaic (PV) systems inevitably affects the power quality in the grid. This new reality demands grid power quality studies involving PV inverters. This paper proposes several frequency response models in the form of equivalent circuits. Models are based on laboratory

  9. Polyvinylpyrrolidone and arsenic-induced changes in biological responses of model aquatic organisms exposed to iron-based nanoparticles

    Llaneza, Verónica [University of Florida, Engineering School of Sustainable Infrastructure and Environment, Department of Environmental Engineering Sciences (United States); Rodea-Palomares, Ismael [Univ. Autonoma de Madrid, Dept. de Biologia, Facultad de Ciencias (Spain); Zhou, Zuo [University of Florida, Engineering School of Sustainable Infrastructure and Environment, Department of Environmental Engineering Sciences (United States); Rosal, Roberto [Univ. de Alcalá, Dept. de Ingeniería Química (Spain); Fernández-Pina, Francisca [Univ. Autonoma de Madrid, Dept. de Biologia, Facultad de Ciencias (Spain); Bonzongo, Jean-Claude J., E-mail: bonzongo@ufl.edu [University of Florida, Engineering School of Sustainable Infrastructure and Environment, Department of Environmental Engineering Sciences (United States)

    2016-08-15

    The efficiency of zero-valent iron particles used in the remediation of contaminated groundwater has, with the emergence of nanotechnology, stimulated interest on the use of nano-size particles to take advantage of high-specific surface area and reactivity characteristics of nanoparticles (NPs). Accordingly, engineered iron-NPs are among the most widely used nanomaterials for in situ remediation. However, while several ecotoxicity studies have been conducted to investigate the adverse impacts of these NPs on aquatic organisms, research on the implications of spent iron-based NPs is lacking. In this study, a comparative approach is used, in which the biological effects of three iron-based NPs (Fe{sub 3}O{sub 4} and γ-Fe{sub 2}O{sub 3} NPs with particle sizes ranging from 20 to 50 nm, and Fe{sup 0}-NPs with an average particle size of 40 nm) on Raphidocelis subcapitata (formely known as Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata) and Daphnia magna were investigated using both as-prepared and pollutant-doped Fe-based NPs. For the latter, arsenic (As) was used as example sorbed pollutant. The results show that improved degree of NP dispersion by use of polyvinylpyrrolidone overlapped with both increased arsenic adsorption capacity and toxicity to the tested organisms. For R. subcapitata, Fe-oxide NPs were more toxic than Fe{sup 0}-NPs, due primarily to differences in the degree of NPs aggregation and ability to produce reactive oxygen species. For the invertebrate D. magna, a similar trend of biological responses was observed, except that sorption of As to Fe{sup 0}-NPs significantly increased the toxic response when compared to R. subcapitata. Overall, these findings point to the need for research on downstream implications of NP-pollutant complexes generated during water treatment by injection of NPs into aquatic systems.

  10. Polyvinylpyrrolidone and arsenic-induced changes in biological responses of model aquatic organisms exposed to iron-based nanoparticles

    Llaneza, Verónica; Rodea-Palomares, Ismael; Zhou, Zuo; Rosal, Roberto; Fernández-Pina, Francisca; Bonzongo, Jean-Claude J.

    2016-01-01

    The efficiency of zero-valent iron particles used in the remediation of contaminated groundwater has, with the emergence of nanotechnology, stimulated interest on the use of nano-size particles to take advantage of high-specific surface area and reactivity characteristics of nanoparticles (NPs). Accordingly, engineered iron-NPs are among the most widely used nanomaterials for in situ remediation. However, while several ecotoxicity studies have been conducted to investigate the adverse impacts of these NPs on aquatic organisms, research on the implications of spent iron-based NPs is lacking. In this study, a comparative approach is used, in which the biological effects of three iron-based NPs (Fe_3O_4 and γ-Fe_2O_3 NPs with particle sizes ranging from 20 to 50 nm, and Fe"0-NPs with an average particle size of 40 nm) on Raphidocelis subcapitata (formely known as Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata) and Daphnia magna were investigated using both as-prepared and pollutant-doped Fe-based NPs. For the latter, arsenic (As) was used as example sorbed pollutant. The results show that improved degree of NP dispersion by use of polyvinylpyrrolidone overlapped with both increased arsenic adsorption capacity and toxicity to the tested organisms. For R. subcapitata, Fe-oxide NPs were more toxic than Fe"0-NPs, due primarily to differences in the degree of NPs aggregation and ability to produce reactive oxygen species. For the invertebrate D. magna, a similar trend of biological responses was observed, except that sorption of As to Fe"0-NPs significantly increased the toxic response when compared to R. subcapitata. Overall, these findings point to the need for research on downstream implications of NP-pollutant complexes generated during water treatment by injection of NPs into aquatic systems.

  11. Polyvinylpyrrolidone and arsenic-induced changes in biological responses of model aquatic organisms exposed to iron-based nanoparticles

    Llaneza, Verónica; Rodea-Palomares, Ismael; Zhou, Zuo; Rosal, Roberto; Fernández-Pina, Francisca; Bonzongo, Jean-Claude J.

    2016-08-01

    The efficiency of zero-valent iron particles used in the remediation of contaminated groundwater has, with the emergence of nanotechnology, stimulated interest on the use of nano-size particles to take advantage of high-specific surface area and reactivity characteristics of nanoparticles (NPs). Accordingly, engineered iron-NPs are among the most widely used nanomaterials for in situ remediation. However, while several ecotoxicity studies have been conducted to investigate the adverse impacts of these NPs on aquatic organisms, research on the implications of spent iron-based NPs is lacking. In this study, a comparative approach is used, in which the biological effects of three iron-based NPs (Fe3O4 and γ-Fe2O3 NPs with particle sizes ranging from 20 to 50 nm, and Fe0-NPs with an average particle size of 40 nm) on Raphidocelis subcapitata (formely known as Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata) and Daphnia magna were investigated using both as-prepared and pollutant-doped Fe-based NPs. For the latter, arsenic (As) was used as example sorbed pollutant. The results show that improved degree of NP dispersion by use of polyvinylpyrrolidone overlapped with both increased arsenic adsorption capacity and toxicity to the tested organisms. For R. subcapitata, Fe-oxide NPs were more toxic than Fe0-NPs, due primarily to differences in the degree of NPs aggregation and ability to produce reactive oxygen species. For the invertebrate D. magna, a similar trend of biological responses was observed, except that sorption of As to Fe0-NPs significantly increased the toxic response when compared to R. subcapitata. Overall, these findings point to the need for research on downstream implications of NP-pollutant complexes generated during water treatment by injection of NPs into aquatic systems.

  12. “Pushing the Envelope” a modeling-based approach to the development of organic, responsive architectural form

    David Yearley

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper tests design procedures for the development of complex, organic architectural forms. It illustrates a postgraduate student design process, implementing a development sequence based on the intelligent manipulation of architectural envelopes using a variety of existing modeling tools and emerging digital techniques. These stages of development respond to imposed spatial and environmental constraints. The tests began with full-scale modeling of small segments. The major constraints at this stage were spatial requirements and the physical characteristics of materials. The forms derived from the bending properties of prestressed green timber and the dimensions of shingle cladding. This was followed by digital 3D modeling using common commercial applications. At this stage initial models were derived from a traditional space requirement brief. The envelopes for these activities were then manipulated to respond to the spatial limitations imposed by surrounding buildings. This digital modeling process metaphorically “pushed the limits” as vertices of the envelope model were stretched and shifted to achieve a perceived “fit” between the two sets of spatial dimensions. The spatially manipulated geometry was then imported into Ecotect, an environmental analysis package. As an example, the envelope’s morphology and cladding material options on the acoustic qualities of the surrounding space were tested. The improved geometry was then imported into a Virtual Reality room, in which the spatial experience was simulated in presentations to the design team and potential occupants. This room utilized six projectors to create an immersive experience to users wearing stereoscopic goggles, and moving in a space surrounded by three large screens, creating a CAVE-like presentation space. Finally there was an attempt to complete the circle by returning from the simulated world to the physical worlds, by creating full-scale models from the digital

  13. An agent-based model of the response to angioplasty and bare-metal stent deployment in an atherosclerotic blood vessel.

    Antonia E Curtin

    Full Text Available PURPOSE: While animal models are widely used to investigate the development of restenosis in blood vessels following an intervention, computational models offer another means for investigating this phenomenon. A computational model of the response of a treated vessel would allow investigators to assess the effects of altering certain vessel- and stent-related variables. The authors aimed to develop a novel computational model of restenosis development following an angioplasty and bare-metal stent implantation in an atherosclerotic vessel using agent-based modeling techniques. The presented model is intended to demonstrate the body's response to the intervention and to explore how different vessel geometries or stent arrangements may affect restenosis development. METHODS: The model was created on a two-dimensional grid space. It utilizes the post-procedural vessel lumen diameter and stent information as its input parameters. The simulation starting point of the model is an atherosclerotic vessel after an angioplasty and stent implantation procedure. The model subsequently generates the final lumen diameter, percent change in lumen cross-sectional area, time to lumen diameter stabilization, and local concentrations of inflammatory cytokines upon simulation completion. Simulation results were directly compared with the results from serial imaging studies and cytokine levels studies in atherosclerotic patients from the relevant literature. RESULTS: The final lumen diameter results were all within one standard deviation of the mean lumen diameters reported in the comparison studies. The overlapping-stent simulations yielded results that matched published trends. The cytokine levels remained within the range of physiological levels throughout the simulations. CONCLUSION: We developed a novel computational model that successfully simulated the development of restenosis in a blood vessel following an angioplasty and bare-metal stent deployment based on

  14. On the relation between Kaiser–Bessel blob and tube of response based modelling of the system matrix in iterative PET image reconstruction

    Lougovski, Alexandr; Hofheinz, Frank; Maus, Jens; Schramm, Georg; Van den Hoff, Jörg

    2015-01-01

    We investigate the question of how the blob approach is related to tube of response based modelling of the system matrix. In our model, the tube of response (TOR) is approximated as a cylinder with constant density (TOR-CD) and the cubic voxels are replaced by spheres. Here we investigate a modification of the TOR model that makes it effectively equivalent to the blob model, which models the intersection of lines of response (LORs) with radially variant basis functions (‘blobs’) replacing the cubic voxels. Implications of the achieved equivalence regarding the necessity of final resampling in blob-based reconstructions are considered. We extended TOR-CD to a variable density tube model (TOR-VD) that yields a weighting function (defining all system matrix elements) which is essentially identical to that of the blob model. The variable density of TOR-VD was modelled by a Gaussian and a Kaiser–Bessel function, respectively. The free parameters of both model functions were determined by fitting the corresponding weighting function to the weighting function of the blob model. TOR-CD and the best-fitting TOR-VD were compared to the blob model with a final resampling step (BLOB-RS) and without resampling (BLOB-NRS) in phantom studies. For three different contrast ratios and two different voxel sizes, resolution noise curves were generated. TOR-VD and BLOB-NRS lead to nearly identical images for all investigated contrast ratios and voxel sizes. Both models showed strong Gibbs artefacts at 4 mm voxel size, while at 2 mm voxel size there were no Gibbs artefacts visible. The spatial resolution was similar to the resolution with TOR-CD in all cases. The resampling step removed most of the Gibbs artefacts and reduced the noise level but also degraded the spatial resolution substantially. We conclude that the blob model can be considered just as a special case of a TOR-based reconstruction. The latter approach provides a more natural description of the detection process

  15. Cortical processing of pitch: Model-based encoding and decoding of auditory fMRI responses to real-life sounds.

    De Angelis, Vittoria; De Martino, Federico; Moerel, Michelle; Santoro, Roberta; Hausfeld, Lars; Formisano, Elia

    2017-11-13

    Pitch is a perceptual attribute related to the fundamental frequency (or periodicity) of a sound. So far, the cortical processing of pitch has been investigated mostly using synthetic sounds. However, the complex harmonic structure of natural sounds may require different mechanisms for the extraction and analysis of pitch. This study investigated the neural representation of pitch in human auditory cortex using model-based encoding and decoding analyses of high field (7 T) functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data collected while participants listened to a wide range of real-life sounds. Specifically, we modeled the fMRI responses as a function of the sounds' perceived pitch height and salience (related to the fundamental frequency and the harmonic structure respectively), which we estimated with a computational algorithm of pitch extraction (de Cheveigné and Kawahara, 2002). First, using single-voxel fMRI encoding, we identified a pitch-coding region in the antero-lateral Heschl's gyrus (HG) and adjacent superior temporal gyrus (STG). In these regions, the pitch representation model combining height and salience predicted the fMRI responses comparatively better than other models of acoustic processing and, in the right hemisphere, better than pitch representations based on height/salience alone. Second, we assessed with model-based decoding that multi-voxel response patterns of the identified regions are more informative of perceived pitch than the remainder of the auditory cortex. Further multivariate analyses showed that complementing a multi-resolution spectro-temporal sound representation with pitch produces a small but significant improvement to the decoding of complex sounds from fMRI response patterns. In sum, this work extends model-based fMRI encoding and decoding methods - previously employed to examine the representation and processing of acoustic sound features in the human auditory system - to the representation and processing of a relevant

  16. SU-D-207B-07: Development of a CT-Radiomics Based Early Response Prediction Model During Delivery of Chemoradiation Therapy for Pancreatic Cancer

    Klawikowski, S; Christian, J; Schott, D; Zhang, M; Li, X [Medical College of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, WI (United States)

    2016-06-15

    Purpose: Pilot study developing a CT-texture based model for early assessment of treatment response during the delivery of chemoradiation therapy (CRT) for pancreatic cancer. Methods: Daily CT data acquired for 24 pancreatic head cancer patients using CT-on-rails, during the routine CT-guided CRT delivery with a radiation dose of 50.4 Gy in 28 fractions, were analyzed. The pancreas head was contoured on each daily CT. Texture analysis was performed within the pancreas head contour using a research tool (IBEX). Over 1300 texture metrics including: grey level co-occurrence, run-length, histogram, neighborhood intensity difference, and geometrical shape features were calculated for each daily CT. Metric-trend information was established by finding the best fit of either a linear, quadratic, or exponential function for each metric value verses accumulated dose. Thus all the daily CT texture information was consolidated into a best-fit trend type for a given patient and texture metric. Linear correlation was performed between the patient histological response vector (good, medium, poor) and all combinations of 23 patient subgroups (statistical jackknife) determining which metrics were most correlated to response and repeatedly reliable across most patients. Control correlations against CT scanner, reconstruction kernel, and gated/nongated CT images were also calculated. Euclidean distance measure was used to group/sort patient vectors based on the data of these trend-response metrics. Results: We found four specific trend-metrics (Gray Level Coocurence Matrix311-1InverseDiffMomentNorm, Gray Level Coocurence Matrix311-1InverseDiffNorm, Gray Level Coocurence Matrix311-1 Homogeneity2, and Intensity Direct Local StdMean) that were highly correlated with patient response and repeatedly reliable. Our four trend-metric model successfully ordered our pilot response dataset (p=0.00070). We found no significant correlation to our control parameters: gating (p=0.7717), scanner (p

  17. Spectral imaging based in vivo model system for characterization of tumor microvessel response to vascular targeting agents

    Wankhede, Mamta

    Functional vasculature is vital for tumor growth, proliferation, and metastasis. Many tumor-specific vascular targeting agents (VTAs) aim to destroy this essential tumor vasculature to induce indirect tumor cell death via oxygen and nutrition deprivation. The tumor angiogenesis-inhibiting anti-angiogenics (AIs) and the established tumor vessel targeting vascular disrupting agents (VDAs) are the two major players in the vascular targeting field. Combination of VTAs with conventional therapies or with each other, have been shown to have additive or supra-additive effects on tumor control and treatment. Pathophysiological changes post-VTA treatment in terms of structural and vessel function changes are important parameters to characterize the treatment efficacy. Despite the abundance of information regarding these parameters acquired using various techniques, there remains a need for a quantitative, real-time, and direct observation of these phenomenon in live animals. Through this research we aspired to develop a spectral imaging based mouse tumor system for real-time in vivo microvessel structure and functional measurements for VTA characterization. A model tumor system for window chamber studies was identified, and then combinatorial effects of VDA and AI were characterized in model tumor system. (Full text of this dissertation may be available via the University of Florida Libraries web site. Please check http://www.uflib.ufl.edu/etd.html)

  18. Pavement Aging Model by Response Surface Modeling

    Manzano-Ramírez A.

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available In this work, surface course aging was modeled by Response Surface Methodology (RSM. The Marshall specimens were placed in a conventional oven for time and temperature conditions established on the basis of the environment factors of the region where the surface course is constructed by AC-20 from the Ing. Antonio M. Amor refinery. Volatilized material (VM, load resistance increment (ΔL and flow resistance increment (ΔF models were developed by the RSM. Cylindrical specimens with real aging were extracted from the surface course pilot to evaluate the error of the models. The VM model was adequate, in contrast (ΔL and (ΔF models were almost adequate with an error of 20 %, that was associated with the other environmental factors, which were not considered at the beginning of the research.

  19. Experimental data and dose-response models

    Ullrich, R.L.

    1985-01-01

    Dose-response relationships for radiation carcinogenesis have been of interest to biologists, modelers, and statisticians for many years. Despite his interest there are few instances in which there are sufficient experimental data to allow the fitting of various dose-response models. In those experimental systems for which data are available the dose-response curves for tumor induction for the various systems cannot be described by a single model. Dose-response models which have been observed following acute exposures to gamma rays include threshold, quadratic, and linear models. Data on sex, age, and environmental influences of dose suggest a strong role of host factors on the dose response. With decreasing dose rate the effectiveness of gamma ray irradiation tends to decrease in essentially every instance. In those cases in which the high dose rate dose response could be described by a quadratic model, the effect of dose rate is consistent with predictions based on radiation effects on the induction of initial events. Whether the underlying reasons for the observed dose-rate effect is a result of effects on the induction of initial events or is due to effects on the subsequent steps in the carcinogenic process is unknown. Information on the dose response for tumor induction for high LET (linear energy transfer) radiations such as neutrons is even more limited. The observed dose and dose rate data for tumor induction following neutron exposure are complex and do not appear to be consistent with predictions based on models for the induction of initial events

  20. Rapid response tools and datasets for post-fire modeling: Linking Earth Observations and process-based hydrological models to support post-fire remediation

    M. E. Miller; M. Billmire; W. J. Elliot; K. A. Endsley; P. R. Robichaud

    2015-01-01

    Preparation is key to utilizing Earth Observations and process-based models to support post-wildfire mitigation. Post-fire flooding and erosion can pose a serious threat to life, property and municipal water supplies. Increased runoff and sediment delivery due to the loss of surface cover and fire-induced changes in soil properties are of great concern. Remediation...

  1. Pre-buckling responses of Timoshenko nanobeams based on the integral and differential models of nonlocal elasticity: an isogeometric approach

    Norouzzadeh, A.; Ansari, R.; Rouhi, H.

    2017-05-01

    Differential form of Eringen's nonlocal elasticity theory is widely employed to capture the small-scale effects on the behavior of nanostructures. However, paradoxical results are obtained via the differential nonlocal constitutive relations in some cases such as in the vibration and bending analysis of cantilevers, and recourse must be made to the integral (original) form of Eringen's theory. Motivated by this consideration, a novel nonlocal formulation is developed herein based on the original formulation of Eringen's theory to study the buckling behavior of nanobeams. The governing equations are derived according to the Timoshenko beam theory, and are represented in a suitable vector-matrix form which is applicable to the finite-element analysis. In addition, an isogeometric analysis (IGA) is conducted for the solution of buckling problem. Construction of exact geometry using non-uniform rational B-splines and easy implementation of geometry refinement tools are the main advantages of IGA. A comparison study is performed between the predictions of integral and differential nonlocal models for nanobeams under different kinds of end conditions.

  2. Autonomous journaling response using data model LUTS

    Jaenisch, Holger; Handley, James; Albritton, Nathaniel; Whitener, David; Burnett, Randel; Caspers, Robert; Moren, Stephen; Alexander, Thomas; Maddox, William, III; Albritton, William, Jr.

    2009-04-01

    Matching journal entries to appropriate context responses can be a daunting problem, especially when there are no salient keyword matches between the entry and the proposed library of appropriate responses. We examine a real-world application for matching interactive journaling requests for guidance to an a priori established archive of sufficient multimedia responses. We show the analysis required to enable a Data Model based algorithm to group journaling entries according to intrinsic context information and type. We demonstrate a new lookup table (LUT) classifier that exploits all available data in LUT form.

  3. Novel biomarker-based model for the prediction of sorafenib response and overall survival in advanced hepatocellular carcinoma: a prospective cohort study.

    Kim, Hwi Young; Lee, Dong Hyeon; Lee, Jeong-Hoon; Cho, Young Youn; Cho, Eun Ju; Yu, Su Jong; Kim, Yoon Jun; Yoon, Jung-Hwan

    2018-03-20

    Prediction of the outcome of sorafenib therapy using biomarkers is an unmet clinical need in patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The aim was to develop and validate a biomarker-based model for predicting sorafenib response and overall survival (OS). This prospective cohort study included 124 consecutive HCC patients (44 with disease control, 80 with progression) with Child-Pugh class A liver function, who received sorafenib. Potential serum biomarkers (namely, hepatocyte growth factor [HGF], fibroblast growth factor [FGF], vascular endothelial growth factor receptor-1, CD117, and angiopoietin-2) were tested. After identifying independent predictors of tumor response, a risk scoring system for predicting OS was developed and 3-fold internal validation was conducted. A risk scoring system was developed with six covariates: etiology, platelet count, Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage, protein induced by vitamin K absence-II, HGF, and FGF. When patients were stratified into low-risk (score ≤ 5), intermediate-risk (score 6), and high-risk (score ≥ 7) groups, the model provided good discriminant functions on tumor response (concordance [c]-index, 0.884) and 12-month survival (area under the curve [AUC], 0.825). The median OS was 19.0, 11.2, and 6.1 months in the low-, intermediate-, and high-risk group, respectively (P functions on tumor response (c-index, 0.825) and 12-month survival (AUC, 0.803), and good calibration functions (all P > 0.05 between expected and observed values). This new model including serum FGF and HGF showed good performance in predicting the response to sorafenib and survival in patients with advanced HCC.

  4. A global model of malaria climate sensitivity: comparing malaria response to historic climate data based on simulation and officially reported malaria incidence

    Edlund Stefan

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The role of the Anopheles vector in malaria transmission and the effect of climate on Anopheles populations are well established. Models of the impact of climate change on the global malaria burden now have access to high-resolution climate data, but malaria surveillance data tends to be less precise, making model calibration problematic. Measurement of malaria response to fluctuations in climate variables offers a way to address these difficulties. Given the demonstrated sensitivity of malaria transmission to vector capacity, this work tests response functions to fluctuations in land surface temperature and precipitation. Methods This study of regional sensitivity of malaria incidence to year-to-year climate variations used an extended Macdonald Ross compartmental disease model (to compute malaria incidence built on top of a global Anopheles vector capacity model (based on 10 years of satellite climate data. The predicted incidence was compared with estimates from the World Health Organization and the Malaria Atlas. The models and denominator data used are freely available through the Eclipse Foundation’s Spatiotemporal Epidemiological Modeller (STEM. Results Although the absolute scale factor relating reported malaria to absolute incidence is uncertain, there is a positive correlation between predicted and reported year-to-year variation in malaria burden with an averaged root mean square (RMS error of 25% comparing normalized incidence across 86 countries. Based on this, the proposed measure of sensitivity of malaria to variations in climate variables indicates locations where malaria is most likely to increase or decrease in response to specific climate factors. Bootstrapping measures the increased uncertainty in predicting malaria sensitivity when reporting is restricted to national level and an annual basis. Results indicate a potential 20x improvement in accuracy if data were available at the level ISO 3166–2

  5. Multiscale modeling of mucosal immune responses

    2015-01-01

    Computational modeling techniques are playing increasingly important roles in advancing a systems-level mechanistic understanding of biological processes. Computer simulations guide and underpin experimental and clinical efforts. This study presents ENteric Immune Simulator (ENISI), a multiscale modeling tool for modeling the mucosal immune responses. ENISI's modeling environment can simulate in silico experiments from molecular signaling pathways to tissue level events such as tissue lesion formation. ENISI's architecture integrates multiple modeling technologies including ABM (agent-based modeling), ODE (ordinary differential equations), SDE (stochastic modeling equations), and PDE (partial differential equations). This paper focuses on the implementation and developmental challenges of ENISI. A multiscale model of mucosal immune responses during colonic inflammation, including CD4+ T cell differentiation and tissue level cell-cell interactions was developed to illustrate the capabilities, power and scope of ENISI MSM. Background Computational techniques are becoming increasingly powerful and modeling tools for biological systems are of greater needs. Biological systems are inherently multiscale, from molecules to tissues and from nano-seconds to a lifespan of several years or decades. ENISI MSM integrates multiple modeling technologies to understand immunological processes from signaling pathways within cells to lesion formation at the tissue level. This paper examines and summarizes the technical details of ENISI, from its initial version to its latest cutting-edge implementation. Implementation Object-oriented programming approach is adopted to develop a suite of tools based on ENISI. Multiple modeling technologies are integrated to visualize tissues, cells as well as proteins; furthermore, performance matching between the scales is addressed. Conclusion We used ENISI MSM for developing predictive multiscale models of the mucosal immune system during gut

  6. Multiscale modeling of mucosal immune responses.

    Mei, Yongguo; Abedi, Vida; Carbo, Adria; Zhang, Xiaoying; Lu, Pinyi; Philipson, Casandra; Hontecillas, Raquel; Hoops, Stefan; Liles, Nathan; Bassaganya-Riera, Josep

    2015-01-01

    Computational techniques are becoming increasingly powerful and modeling tools for biological systems are of greater needs. Biological systems are inherently multiscale, from molecules to tissues and from nano-seconds to a lifespan of several years or decades. ENISI MSM integrates multiple modeling technologies to understand immunological processes from signaling pathways within cells to lesion formation at the tissue level. This paper examines and summarizes the technical details of ENISI, from its initial version to its latest cutting-edge implementation. Object-oriented programming approach is adopted to develop a suite of tools based on ENISI. Multiple modeling technologies are integrated to visualize tissues, cells as well as proteins; furthermore, performance matching between the scales is addressed. We used ENISI MSM for developing predictive multiscale models of the mucosal immune system during gut inflammation. Our modeling predictions dissect the mechanisms by which effector CD4+ T cell responses contribute to tissue damage in the gut mucosa following immune dysregulation.Computational modeling techniques are playing increasingly important roles in advancing a systems-level mechanistic understanding of biological processes. Computer simulations guide and underpin experimental and clinical efforts. This study presents ENteric Immune Simulator (ENISI), a multiscale modeling tool for modeling the mucosal immune responses. ENISI's modeling environment can simulate in silico experiments from molecular signaling pathways to tissue level events such as tissue lesion formation. ENISI's architecture integrates multiple modeling technologies including ABM (agent-based modeling), ODE (ordinary differential equations), SDE (stochastic modeling equations), and PDE (partial differential equations). This paper focuses on the implementation and developmental challenges of ENISI. A multiscale model of mucosal immune responses during colonic inflammation, including CD4+ T

  7. Carrot or Stick? Modelling How Landowner Behavioural Responses Can Cause Incentive-Based Forest Governance to Backfire

    Henderson, Kirsten A.; Anand, Madhur; Bauch, Chris T.

    2013-01-01

    Mitigating the negative impacts of declining worldwide forest cover remains a significant socio-ecological challenge, due to the dominant role of human decision-making. Here we use a Markov chain model of land-use dynamics to examine the impact of governance on forest cover in a region. Each land parcel can be either forested or barren (deforested), and landowners decide whether to deforest their parcel according to perceived value (utility). We focus on three governance strategies: yearly incentive for conservation, one-time penalty for deforestation and one-time incentive for reforestation. The incentive and penalty are incorporated into the expected utility of forested land, which decreases the net gain of deforestation. By analyzing the equilibrium and stability of the landscape dynamics, we observe four possible outcomes: a stationary-forested landscape, a stationary-deforested landscape, an unstable landscape fluctuating near the equilibrium, and a cyclic-forested landscape induced by synchronized deforestation. We find that the two incentive-based strategies often result in highly fluctuating forest cover over decadal time scales or longer, and in a few cases, reforestation incentives actually decrease the average forest cover. In contrast, a penalty for deforestation results in the stable persistence of forest cover (generally >30%). The idea that larger conservation incentives will always yield higher and more stable forest cover is not supported in our findings. The decision to deforest is influenced by more than a simple, “rational” cost-benefit analysis: social learning and myopic, stochastic decision-making also have important effects. We conclude that design of incentive programs may need to account for potential counter-productive long-term effects due to behavioural feedbacks. PMID:24204942

  8. Carrot or stick? Modelling how landowner behavioural responses can cause incentive-based forest governance to backfire.

    Kirsten A Henderson

    Full Text Available Mitigating the negative impacts of declining worldwide forest cover remains a significant socio-ecological challenge, due to the dominant role of human decision-making. Here we use a Markov chain model of land-use dynamics to examine the impact of governance on forest cover in a region. Each land parcel can be either forested or barren (deforested, and landowners decide whether to deforest their parcel according to perceived value (utility. We focus on three governance strategies: yearly incentive for conservation, one-time penalty for deforestation and one-time incentive for reforestation. The incentive and penalty are incorporated into the expected utility of forested land, which decreases the net gain of deforestation. By analyzing the equilibrium and stability of the landscape dynamics, we observe four possible outcomes: a stationary-forested landscape, a stationary-deforested landscape, an unstable landscape fluctuating near the equilibrium, and a cyclic-forested landscape induced by synchronized deforestation. We find that the two incentive-based strategies often result in highly fluctuating forest cover over decadal time scales or longer, and in a few cases, reforestation incentives actually decrease the average forest cover. In contrast, a penalty for deforestation results in the stable persistence of forest cover (generally >30%. The idea that larger conservation incentives will always yield higher and more stable forest cover is not supported in our findings. The decision to deforest is influenced by more than a simple, "rational" cost-benefit analysis: social learning and myopic, stochastic decision-making also have important effects. We conclude that design of incentive programs may need to account for potential counter-productive long-term effects due to behavioural feedbacks.

  9. Modelling the Immune Response to Cancer: An Individual-Based Approach Accounting for the Difference in Movement Between Inactive and Activated T Cells.

    Macfarlane, Fiona R; Lorenzi, Tommaso; Chaplain, Mark A J

    2018-06-01

    A growing body of experimental evidence indicates that immune cells move in an unrestricted search pattern if they are in the pre-activated state, whilst they tend to stay within a more restricted area upon activation induced by the presence of tumour antigens. This change in movement is not often considered in the existing mathematical models of the interactions between immune cells and cancer cells. With the aim to fill such a gap in the existing literature, in this work we present a spatially structured individual-based model of tumour-immune competition that takes explicitly into account the difference in movement between inactive and activated immune cells. In our model, a Lévy walk is used to capture the movement of inactive immune cells, whereas Brownian motion is used to describe the movement of antigen-activated immune cells. The effects of activation of immune cells, the proliferation of cancer cells and the immune destruction of cancer cells are also modelled. We illustrate the ability of our model to reproduce qualitatively the spatial trajectories of immune cells observed in experimental data of single-cell tracking. Computational simulations of our model further clarify the conditions for the onset of a successful immune action against cancer cells and may suggest possible targets to improve the efficacy of cancer immunotherapy. Overall, our theoretical work highlights the importance of taking into account spatial interactions when modelling the immune response to cancer cells.

  10. A model of roles and responsibilities in oral health promotion based on perspectives of a community-based initiative for pre-school children in the U.K.

    Henderson, E; Rubin, G

    2014-03-01

    (i) To explore dental, school and family perspectives of an oral health promotion (OHP) initiative to improve access for pre-school children in deprived communities; (ii) to develop a model of roles and responsibilities for OHP in community settings. Semi-structured focus groups (n = 6) with dental practice staff (n = 24), and semi-structured interviews with school staff (n = 9) and parents and children (n = 4) who were involved in an OHP initiative for pre-school children. Framework analysis was applied to identify themes. Themes were used to develop a model of roles and responsibilities for OHP, based on the WHO Planning and evaluating health promotion model. Respondents subscribed to a community-based approach to improving access to dental services for pre-school children in deprived areas, with an emphasis on shared responsibility and communication. In addition to macro-level actions in directing health policy and services, commissioners were held responsible for investing in micro-level actions, such as funding OHP training and involving parents, and meso-level actions such as reducing barriers to access. The model we have developed builds on WHO recommendations on health promotion to identify the key roles and responsibilities that should be incorporated into further initiatives in OHP.

  11. catcher: A Software Program to Detect Answer Copying in Multiple-Choice Tests Based on Nominal Response Model

    Kalender, Ilker

    2012-01-01

    catcher is a software program designed to compute the [omega] index, a common statistical index for the identification of collusions (cheating) among examinees taking an educational or psychological test. It requires (a) responses and (b) ability estimations of individuals, and (c) item parameters to make computations and outputs the results of…

  12. Organizational Analysis and Career Projections Based on a Level-of-Responsibility/Equitable Payment Model. Technical Report.

    Laner, Stephen; And Others

    Following an explanation of the Level of Responsibility/Equitable Pay Function, its applicability is demonstrated to the analysis and to the design and redesign of organizational hierarchies. It is shown how certain common dysfuntional anomalies can be avoided by structuring an organization along the principles outlined. A technique is then…

  13. Development of ANN-based models to predict the static response and dynamic response of a heat exchanger in a real MVAC system

    Hu Qinhua; So, Albert T P; Tse, W L; Ren, Qingchang

    2005-01-01

    This paper presents a systematic approach to develop artificial neural network (ANN) models to predict the performance of a heat exchanger operating in real mechanical ventilation and air-conditioning (MVAC) system. Two approaches were attempted and presented. Every detailed components of the MVAC system have been considered and we attempt to model each of them by one ANN. This study used the neural network technique to obtain a static and a dynamic model for a heat exchanger mounted in an air handler unit (AHU), which is the key component of the MVAC system. It has been verified that almost all of the predicted values of the ANN model were within 95% - 105% of the measured values, with a consistent mean relative error (MRE) smaller than 2.5%. The paper details our experiences in using ANNs, especially those with back-propagation (BP) structures. Also, the weights and biases of our trained-up ANN models are listed out, which serve as good reference for readers to deal with their own situations

  14. A Hearing-Based, Frequency Domain Sound Quality Model for Combined Aerodynamic and Power Transmission Response with Application to Rotorcraft Interior Noise

    Sondkar, Pravin B.

    The severity of combined aerodynamics and power transmission response in high-speed, high power density systems such as a rotorcraft is still a major cause of annoyance in spite of recent advancement in passive, semi-active and active control. With further increase in the capacity and power of this class of machinery systems, the acoustic noise levels are expected to increase even more. To achieve further improvements in sound quality, a more refined understanding of the factors and attributes controlling human perception is needed. In the case of rotorcraft systems, the perceived quality of the interior sound field is a major determining factor of passenger comfort. Traditionally, this sound quality factor is determined by measuring the response of a chosen set of juries who are asked to compare their qualitative reactions to two or more sounds based on their subjective impressions. This type of testing is very time-consuming, costly, often inconsistent, and not useful for practical design purposes. Furthermore, there is no known universal model for sound quality. The primary aim of this research is to achieve significant improvements in quantifying the sound quality of combined aerodynamic and power transmission response in high-speed, high power density machinery systems such as a rotorcraft by applying relevant objective measures related to the spectral characteristics of the sound field. Two models have been proposed in this dissertation research. First, a classical multivariate regression analysis model based on currently known sound quality metrics as well some new metrics derived in this study is presented. Even though the analysis resulted in the best possible multivariate model as a measure of the acoustic noise quality, it lacks incorporation of human judgment mechanism. The regression model can change depending on specific application, nature of the sounds and types of juries used in the study. Also, it predicts only the averaged preference scores and

  15. [Response of water yield function of ecosystem to land use change in Nansi Lake Basin based on CLUE-S model and InVEST model .

    Guo, Hong Wei; Sun, Xiao Yin; Lian, Li Shu; Zhang, Da Zhi; Xu, Yan

    2016-09-01

    Land use change has an important role in hydrological processes and utilization of water resources, and is the main driving force of water yield function of ecosystem. This paper analyzed the change of land use from 1990 to 2013 in Nansi Lake Basin, Shandong Province. The future land use in 2030 was also predicted and simulated by CLUE-S model. Based on land use scenarios, we analyzed the influence of land use change on ecosystem function of water yield in nearly 25 years through InVEST water yield model and spatial mapping. The results showed that the area of construction land increased by 3.5% in 2013 because of burgeoning urbanization process, but farmland area decreased by 2.4% which was conversed to construction land mostly. The simulated result of InVEST model suggested that water yield level of whole basin decreased firstly and increased subsequently during last 25 years and peaked at 232.1 mm in 2013. The construction land area would increase by 6.7% in 2030 based on the land use scenarios of fast urbanization, which would lead to a remarkable growth for water yield and risk of flowing flooding. However, the water yield level of whole basin would decrease by 1.2 % in 2013 if 300 meter-wide forest buffer strips around Nansi Lake were built up.

  16. A Model-Based Approach for Separating the Cochlear Microphonic from the Auditory Nerve Neurophonic in the Ongoing Response Using Electrocochleography

    Tatyana E. Fontenot

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Electrocochleography (ECochG is a potential clinically valuable technique for predicting speech perception outcomes in cochlear implant (CI recipients, among other uses. Current analysis is limited by an inability to quantify hair cell and neural contributions which are mixed in the ongoing part of the response to low frequency tones. Here, we used a model based on source properties to account for recorded waveform shapes and to separate the combined signal into its components. The model for the cochlear microphonic (CM was a sinusoid with parameters for independent saturation of the peaks and the troughs of the responses. The model for the auditory nerve neurophonic (ANN was the convolution of a unit potential and population cycle histogram with a parameter for spread of excitation. Phases of the ANN and CM were additional parameters. The average cycle from the ongoing response was the input, and adaptive fitting identified CM and ANN parameters that best reproduced the waveform shape. Test datasets were responses recorded from the round windows of CI recipients, from the round window of gerbils before and after application of neurotoxins, and with simulated signals where each parameter could be manipulated in isolation. Waveforms recorded from 284 CI recipients had a variety of morphologies that the model fit with an average r2 of 0.97 ± 0.058 (standard deviation. With simulated signals, small systematic differences between outputs and inputs were seen with some variable combinations, but in general there were limited interactions among the parameters. In gerbils, the CM reported was relatively unaffected by the neurotoxins. In contrast, the ANN was strongly reduced and the reduction was limited to frequencies of 1,000 Hz and lower, consistent with the range of strong neural phase-locking. Across human CI subjects, the ANN contribution was variable, ranging from nearly none to larger than the CM. Development of this model could provide a

  17. Development of an interactive exploratory web-based modelling platform for informed decision-making and knowledgeable responses to global change

    Holman, I.; Harrison, P.; Cojocaru, G.

    2013-12-01

    Informed decision-making and knowledgeable responses to global climate change impacts on natural resources and ecosystem services requires access to information resources that are credible, accurate, easy to understand, and appropriate. Too often stakeholders are limited to restricted scientific outputs produced by inaccessible models, generated from a limited number of scenario simulations chosen arbitrarily by researchers. This paper describes the outcomes of the CLIMSAVE project (www.climsave.eu), which has attempted to democratise climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability modelling, through developing the public domain interactive exploratory web-based CLIMSAVE Integrated Assessment (IA) Platform. The CLIMSAVE Integrated Assessment (IA) Platform aims to enable a wide range of stakeholders to improve their understanding surrounding impacts, adaptation responses and vulnerability of natural resources and ecosystem services under uncertain futures across Europe. The CLIMSAVE IA Platform contain linked simulation models (of the urban, water, agriculture, forestry, biodiversity and other sectors), IPCC AR4 climate scenarios and CLIMSAVE socio-economic scenarios, enabling users to select their inputs (climate and socioeconomic), rapidly run the models across Europe using their input settings and view their selected Impact (before, or after, adaptation) and Vulnerability (Figure 1) indicators. The CLIMSAVE IA Platform has been designed to promote both cognitive accessibility - the ease of understanding - and practical accessibility - the ease of application. Based upon partner and CLIMSAVE international experts' experience, examination of other participatory model interfaces and potential user requirements, we describe the design concepts and functionality that were identified, incorporated into the prototype CLIMSAVE IA Platform and further refined based on stakeholder feedback. The CLIMSAVE IA Platform is designed to facilitate a two-way iterative process

  18. Development of a three-dimensional unit cell to model the micromechanical response of a collagen-based extracellular matrix.

    Susilo, Monica E; Roeder, Blayne A; Voytik-Harbin, Sherry L; Kokini, Klod; Nauman, Eric A

    2010-04-01

    The three-dimensional microstructure and mechanical properties of the collagen fibrils within the extracellular matrix (ECM) is now being recognized as a primary factor in regulating cell proliferation and differentiation. Therefore, an appreciation of the mechanical aspects by which a cell interacts with its ECM is required for the development of engineered tissues. Ultimately, using these interactions to design tissue equivalents requires mathematical models with three-dimensional architecture. In this study, a three-dimensional model of a collagen fibril matrix undergoing uniaxial tensile stress was developed by making use of cellular solids. A structure consisting of thin struts was chosen to represent the arrangement of collagen fibrils within an engineered ECM. To account for the large deformation of tissues, the collagen fibrils were modeled as hyperelastic neo-Hookean or Mooney-Rivlin materials. The use of cellular solids allowed the fibril properties to be related to the ECM properties in closed form, which, in turn, allowed the estimation of fibril properties using ECM experimental data. A set of previously obtained experimental data consisting of simultaneous measures of the fibril microstructure and mechanical tests was used to evaluate the model's capability to estimate collagen fibril mechanical property when given tissue-scale data and to predict the tissue-scale mechanical properties when given estimated fibril stiffness. The fibril tangent modulus was found to be 1.26 + or - 0.70 and 1.62 + or - 0.88 MPa when the fibril was modeled as neo-Hookean and Mooney-Rivlin material, respectively. There was no statistical significance of the estimated fibril tangent modulus among the different groups. Sensitivity analysis showed that the fibril mechanical properties and volume fraction were the two input parameters which required accurate values. While the volume fraction was easily obtained from the initial image of the gel, the fibril mechanical properties

  19. Prediction of clinical response based on pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic models of 5-hydroxytryptamine reuptake inhibitors in mice

    Kreilgaard, Mads; Smith, D. G.; Brennum, L. T.

    2008-01-01

    Bridging the gap between preclinical research and clinical trials is vital for drug development. Predicting clinically relevant steady-state drug concentrations (Css) in serum from preclinical animal models may facilitate this transition. Here we used a pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PK...

  20. Modeling the Time-Course of Responses for the Border Ownership Selectivity Based on the Integration of Feedforward Signals and Visual Cortical Interactions.

    Wagatsuma, Nobuhiko; Sakai, Ko

    2016-01-01

    Border ownership (BO) indicates which side of a contour owns a border, and it plays a fundamental role in figure-ground segregation. The majority of neurons in V2 and V4 areas of monkeys exhibit BO selectivity. A physiological work reported that the responses of BO-selective cells show a rapid transition when a presented square is flipped along its classical receptive field (CRF) so that the opposite BO is presented, whereas the transition is significantly slower when a square with a clear BO is replaced by an ambiguous edge, e.g., when the square is enlarged greatly. The rapid transition seemed to reflect the influence of feedforward processing on BO selectivity. Herein, we investigated the role of feedforward signals and cortical interactions for time-courses in BO-selective cells by modeling a visual cortical network comprising V1, V2, and posterior parietal (PP) modules. In our computational model, the recurrent pathways among these modules gradually established the visual progress and the BO assignments. Feedforward inputs mainly determined the activities of these modules. Surrounding suppression/facilitation of early-level areas modulates the activities of V2 cells to provide BO signals. Weak feedback signals from the PP module enhanced the contrast gain extracted in V1, which underlies the attentional modulation of BO signals. Model simulations exhibited time-courses depending on the BO ambiguity, which were caused by the integration delay of V1 and V2 cells and the local inhibition therein given the difference in input stimulus. However, our model did not fully explain the characteristics of crucially slow transition: the responses of BO-selective physiological cells indicated the persistent activation several times longer than that of our model after the replacement with the ambiguous edge. Furthermore, the time-course of BO-selective model cells replicated the attentional modulation of response time in human psychophysical experiments. These attentional

  1. Modeling the Time-Course of Responses for the Border Ownership Selectivity Based on the Integration of Feedforward Signals and Visual Cortical Interactions

    Wagatsuma, Nobuhiko; Sakai, Ko

    2017-01-01

    Border ownership (BO) indicates which side of a contour owns a border, and it plays a fundamental role in figure-ground segregation. The majority of neurons in V2 and V4 areas of monkeys exhibit BO selectivity. A physiological work reported that the responses of BO-selective cells show a rapid transition when a presented square is flipped along its classical receptive field (CRF) so that the opposite BO is presented, whereas the transition is significantly slower when a square with a clear BO is replaced by an ambiguous edge, e.g., when the square is enlarged greatly. The rapid transition seemed to reflect the influence of feedforward processing on BO selectivity. Herein, we investigated the role of feedforward signals and cortical interactions for time-courses in BO-selective cells by modeling a visual cortical network comprising V1, V2, and posterior parietal (PP) modules. In our computational model, the recurrent pathways among these modules gradually established the visual progress and the BO assignments. Feedforward inputs mainly determined the activities of these modules. Surrounding suppression/facilitation of early-level areas modulates the activities of V2 cells to provide BO signals. Weak feedback signals from the PP module enhanced the contrast gain extracted in V1, which underlies the attentional modulation of BO signals. Model simulations exhibited time-courses depending on the BO ambiguity, which were caused by the integration delay of V1 and V2 cells and the local inhibition therein given the difference in input stimulus. However, our model did not fully explain the characteristics of crucially slow transition: the responses of BO-selective physiological cells indicated the persistent activation several times longer than that of our model after the replacement with the ambiguous edge. Furthermore, the time-course of BO-selective model cells replicated the attentional modulation of response time in human psychophysical experiments. These attentional

  2. WE-AB-202-11: Radiobiological Modeling of Tumor Response During Radiotherapy Based On Pre-Treatment Dynamic PET Imaging Data

    Crispin-Ortuzar, M; Grkovski, M; Beattie, B; Lee, N; Riaz, N; Humm, J; Jeong, J; Fontanella, A; Deasy, J [Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, NY (United States)

    2016-06-15

    Purpose: To evaluate the ability of a multiscale radiobiological model of tumor response to predict mid-treatment hypoxia images, based on pretreatment imaging of perfusion and hypoxia with [18-F]FMISO dynamic PET and glucose metabolism with [18-F]FDG PET. Methods: A mechanistic tumor control probability (TCP) radiobiological model describing the interplay between tumor cell proliferation and hypoxia (Jeong et al., PMB 2013) was extended to account for intra-tumor nutrient heterogeneity, dynamic cell migration due to nutrient gradients, and stromal cells. This extended model was tested on 10 head and neck cancer patients treated with chemoradiotherapy, randomly drawn from a larger MSKCC protocol involving baseline and mid-therapy dynamic PET scans. For each voxel, initial fractions of proliferative and hypoxic tumor cells were obtained by finding an approximate solution to a system of linear equations relating cell fractions to voxel-level FDG uptake, perfusion (FMISO K{sub 1}) and hypoxia (FMISO k{sub 3}). The TCP model then predicted their evolution over time up until the mid treatment scan. Finally, the linear model was reapplied to predict each lesion’s median hypoxia level (k{sub 3}[med,sim]) which in turn was compared to the FMISO k{sub 3}[med] measured at mid-therapy. Results: The average k3[med] of the tumors in pre-treatment scans was 0.0035 min{sup −1}, with an inter-tumor standard deviation of σ[pre]=0.0034 min{sup −1}. The initial simulated k{sub 3}[med,sim] of each tumor agreed with the corresponding measurements within 0.1σ[pre]. In 7 out of 10 lesions, the mid-treatment k{sub 3}[med,sim] prediction agreed with the data within 0.3σ[pre]. The remaining cases corresponded to the most extreme relative changes in k{sub 3}[med]. Conclusion: This work presents a method to personalize the prediction of a TCP model using pre-treatment kinetic imaging data, and validates the modeling of radiotherapy response by predicting changes in median hypoxia

  3. Factorial-based response-surface modeling with confidence intervals for optimizing thermal-optical transmission analysis of atmospheric black carbon

    Conny, J.M.; Norris, G.A.; Gould, T.R.

    2009-01-01

    Thermal-optical transmission (TOT) analysis measures black carbon (BC) in atmospheric aerosol on a fibrous filter. The method pyrolyzes organic carbon (OC) and employs laser light absorption to distinguish BC from the pyrolyzed OC; however, the instrument does not necessarily separate the two physically. In addition, a comprehensive temperature protocol for the analysis based on the Beer-Lambert Law remains elusive. Here, empirical response-surface modeling was used to show how the temperature protocol in TOT analysis can be modified to distinguish pyrolyzed OC from BC based on the Beer-Lambert Law. We determined the apparent specific absorption cross sections for pyrolyzed OC (σ Char ) and BC (σ BC ), which accounted for individual absorption enhancement effects within the filter. Response-surface models of these cross sections were derived from a three-factor central-composite factorial experimental design: temperature and duration of the high-temperature step in the helium phase, and the heating increase in the helium-oxygen phase. The response surface for σ BC , which varied with instrument conditions, revealed a ridge indicating the correct conditions for OC pyrolysis in helium. The intersection of the σ BC and σ Char surfaces indicated the conditions where the cross sections were equivalent, satisfying an important assumption upon which the method relies. 95% confidence interval surfaces defined a confidence region for a range of pyrolysis conditions. Analyses of wintertime samples from Seattle, WA revealed a temperature between 830 deg. C and 850 deg. C as most suitable for the helium high-temperature step lasting 150 s. However, a temperature as low as 750 deg. C could not be rejected statistically

  4. Biomarker-Based Prediction Models for Response to Treatment in Systemic Sclerosis-Related Interstitial Lung Disease

    2017-10-01

    important inflammatory proteins (a total of 59 proteins) were determined by Myriad Rule Based Medicine . The initial quality control analysis has been...National Institute of Child Health and Human Development UCLA Clinical and Translational Science Institute PREVIOUS, CURRENT AND PENDING...Commitment: No Salary Support* Supporting Agency: NIH/NIAMS - R01-AR062056 (Subcontract from Baylor College of Medicine ) Name and Address of the Funding

  5. Responsibility modelling for civil emergency planning

    Sommerville, Ian; Storer, Timothy; Lock, Russell

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents a new approach to analysing and understanding civil emergency planning based on the notion of responsibility modelling combined with HAZOPS-style analysis of information requirements. Our goal is to represent complex contingency plans so that they can be more readily understood, so that inconsistencies can be highlighted and vulnerabilities discovered. In this paper, we outline the framework for contingency planning in the United Kingdom and introduce the notion of respons...

  6. Modeling Behavior by Coastal River Otter (Lontra Canadensis in Response to Prey Availability in Prince William Sound, Alaska: A Spatially-Explicit Individual-Based Approach.

    Shannon E Albeke

    Full Text Available Effects of climate change on animal behavior and cascading ecosystem responses are rarely evaluated. In coastal Alaska, social river otters (Lontra Canadensis, largely males, cooperatively forage on schooling fish and use latrine sites to communicate group associations and dominance. Conversely, solitary otters, mainly females, feed on intertidal-demersal fish and display mutual avoidance via scent marking. This behavioral variability creates "hotspots" of nutrient deposition and affects plant productivity and diversity on the terrestrial landscape. Because the abundance of schooling pelagic fish is predicted to decline with climate change, we developed a spatially-explicit individual-based model (IBM of otter behavior and tested six scenarios based on potential shifts to distribution patterns of schooling fish. Emergent patterns from the IBM closely mimicked observed otter behavior and landscape use in the absence of explicit rules of intraspecific attraction or repulsion. Model results were most sensitive to rules regarding spatial memory and activity state following an encounter with a fish school. With declining availability of schooling fish, the number of social groups and the time simulated otters spent in the company of conspecifics declined. Concurrently, model results suggested an elevation of defecation rate, a 25% increase in nitrogen transport to the terrestrial landscape, and significant changes to the spatial distribution of "hotspots" with declines in schooling fish availability. However, reductions in availability of schooling fish could lead to declines in otter density over time.

  7. Effect of inter-annual variability in pasture growth and irrigation response on farm productivity and profitability based on biophysical and farm systems modelling.

    Vogeler, Iris; Mackay, Alec; Vibart, Ronaldo; Rendel, John; Beautrais, Josef; Dennis, Samuel

    2016-09-15

    Farm system and nutrient budget models are increasingly being used in analysis to inform on farm decision making and evaluate land use policy options at regional scales. These analyses are generally based on the use of average annual pasture yields. In New Zealand (NZ), like in many countries, there is considerable inter-annual variation in pasture growth rates, due to climate. In this study a modelling approach was used to (i) include inter-annual variability as an integral part of the analysis and (ii) test the approach in an economic analysis of irrigation in a case study within the Hawkes Bay Region of New Zealand. The Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) was used to generate pasture dry matter yields (DMY) for 20 different years and under both dryland and irrigation. The generated DMY were linked to outputs from farm-scale modelling for both Sheep and Beef Systems (Farmaxx Pro) and Dairy Systems (Farmax® Dairy Pro) to calculate farm production over 20 different years. Variation in DMY and associated livestock production due to inter-annual variation in climate was large, with a coefficient of variations up to 20%. Irrigation decreased this inter-annual variation. On average irrigation, with unlimited available water, increased income by $831 to 1195/ha, but when irrigation was limited to 250mm/ha/year income only increased by $525 to 883/ha. Using pasture responses in individual years to capturing the inter-annual variation, rather than the pasture response averaged over 20years resulted in lower financial benefits. In the case study income from irrigation based on an average year were 10 to >20% higher compared with those obtained from individual years. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. ANN Model-Based Simulation of the Runoff Variation in Response to Climate Change on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China

    Chang Juan

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Precisely quantitative assessments of stream flow response to climatic change and permafrost thawing are highly challenging and urgent in cold regions. However, due to the notably harsh environmental conditions, there is little field monitoring data of runoff in permafrost regions, which has limited the development of physically based models in these regions. To identify the impacts of climate change in the runoff process in the Three-River Headwater Region (TRHR on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, two artificial neural network (ANN models, one with three input variables (previous runoff, air temperature, and precipitation and another with two input variables (air temperature and precipitation only, were developed to simulate and predict the runoff variation in the TRHR. The results show that the three-input variable ANN model has a superior real-time prediction capability and performs well in the simulation and forecasting of the runoff variation in the TRHR. Under the different scenarios conditions, the forecasting results of ANN model indicated that climate change has a great effect on the runoff processes in the TRHR. The results of this study are of practical significance for water resources management and the evaluation of the impacts of climatic change on the hydrological regime in long-term considerations.

  9. Characterizing Class-Specific Exposure-Viral Load Suppression Response of HIV Antiretrovirals Using A Model-Based Meta-Analysis.

    Xu, Y; Li, Y F; Zhang, D; Dockendorf, M; Tetteh, E; Rizk, M L; Grobler, J A; Lai, M-T; Gobburu, J; Ankrom, W

    2016-08-01

    We applied model-based meta-analysis of viral suppression as a function of drug exposure and in vitro potency for short-term monotherapy in human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1)-infected treatment-naïve patients to set pharmacokinetic targets for development of nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs) and integrase strand transfer inhibitors (InSTIs). We developed class-specific models relating viral load kinetics from monotherapy studies to potency normalized steady-state trough plasma concentrations. These models were integrated with a literature assessment of doses which demonstrated to have long-term efficacy in combination therapy, in order to set steady-state trough concentration targets of 6.17- and 2.15-fold above potency for NNRTIs and InSTIs, respectively. Both the models developed and the pharmacokinetic targets derived can be used to guide compound selection during preclinical development and to predict the dose-response of new antiretrovirals to inform early clinical trial design. © 2016 The Authors. Clinical and Translational Science published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.

  10. The AU Model Law on Universal Jurisdiction: An African Response to Western Prosecutions based on the Universality Principle

    Angelo Dube

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The African continent has been consistent in placing its concerns regarding the manner in which international criminal justice is administered on the international platform. For the past decade, the continent has minced no words about its misgivings concerning the use of universal jurisdiction (UJ by both foreign States and the International Criminal Court (ICC. The African Union (AU has been very supportive of UJ and its utility in fighting impunity and affording justice to victims of the core crimes of international law, namely, genocide, war crimes and crimes against humanity. Often referred to as core crimes, these are regarded as customary law crimes which are an affront to entire humankind. These crimes were also codified by the Rome Statute of the ICC. However, the political and selective use of the principle of universality by foreign States to prosecute perpetrators of these crimes was seen as causing conflicts and undermining peace efforts, reconciliation and regional stability. As a result the African continent voiced its concerns at various public platforms, including under the auspices of the UN and it therefore called for reforms. This prompted the AU to produce its own model law on UJ, which African States could adapt to their own socio-political circumstances and legal context. The debates that ensued around UJ on the African continent offered African States a chance to contribute to the development of international law, especially on the rules concerning UJ. This paper analyses the interaction amongst African states that eventually led to the development of UJ regulations within their individual legal systems, and tries to determine if there is indeed an African signature in those legal rules.

  11. Effect of Item Response Theory (IRT) Model Selection on Testlet-Based Test Equating. Research Report. ETS RR-14-19

    Cao, Yi; Lu, Ru; Tao, Wei

    2014-01-01

    The local item independence assumption underlying traditional item response theory (IRT) models is often not met for tests composed of testlets. There are 3 major approaches to addressing this issue: (a) ignore the violation and use a dichotomous IRT model (e.g., the 2-parameter logistic [2PL] model), (b) combine the interdependent items to form a…

  12. Base Station Performance Model

    Walsh, Barbara; Farrell, Ronan

    2005-01-01

    At present the testing of power amplifiers within base station transmitters is limited to testing at component level as opposed to testing at the system level. While the detection of catastrophic failure is possible, that of performance degradation is not. This paper proposes a base station model with respect to transmitter output power with the aim of introducing system level monitoring of the power amplifier behaviour within the base station. Our model reflects the expe...

  13. Evaluation of perturbations in serum thyroid hormones during human pregnancy due to dietary iodide and perchlorate exposure using a biologically based dose-response model.

    Lumen, Annie; Mattie, David R; Fisher, Jeffrey W

    2013-06-01

    A biologically based dose-response model (BBDR) for the hypothalamic pituitary thyroid (HPT) axis was developed in the near-term pregnant mother and fetus. This model was calibrated to predict serum levels of iodide, total thyroxine (T4), free thyroxine (fT4), and total triiodothyronine (T3) in the mother and fetus for a range of dietary iodide intake. The model was extended to describe perchlorate, an environmental and food contaminant, that competes with the sodium iodide symporter protein for thyroidal uptake of iodide. Using this mode-of-action framework, simulations were performed to determine the daily ingestion rates of perchlorate that would be associated with hypothyroxinemia or onset of hypothyroidism for varying iodide intake. Model simulations suggested that a maternal iodide intake of 75 to 250 µg/day and an environmentally relevant exposure of perchlorate (~0.1 µg/kg/day) did not result in hypothyroxinemia or hypothyroidism. For a daily iodide-sufficient intake of 200 µg/day, the dose of perchlorate required to reduce maternal fT4 levels to a hypothyroxinemic state was estimated at 32.2 µg/kg/day. As iodide intake was lowered to 75 µg/day, the model simulated daily perchlorate dose required to cause hypothyroxinemia was reduced by eightfold. Similarly, the perchlorate intake rates associated with the onset of subclinical hypothyroidism ranged from 54.8 to 21.5 µg/kg/day for daily iodide intake of 250-75 µg/day. This BBDR-HPT axis model for pregnancy provides an example of a novel public health assessment tool that may be expanded to address other endocrine-active chemicals found in food and the environment.

  14. Agent-based model for electricity consumption and storage to evaluate economic viability of tariff arbitrage for residential sector demand response

    Zheng, Menglian; Meinrenken, Christoph J.; Lackner, Klaus S.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Storage-based demand response (loadshifting) is underutilized in residential sector. • Economics (arbitrage savings versus equipment cost) are not well understood. • Stochastic demand models and real-life tariffs can illuminate economic viability. • A range of available storage options provide economically viable DR. • Daily/seasonal stochastic demand variations crucial to understanding optimum capacity. - Abstract: Demand response (DR) is one of many approaches to address temporal mismatches in demand and supply of grid electricity. More common in the commercial sector, DR usually refers to reducing consumption at certain hours or seasons, thus reducing peak demand from the grid. In the residential sector, where sophisticated appliance-level controls such as automatic dimming of lights or on-demand lowering of air conditioning are less common, building-based electricity storage to shift grid consumption from peak to off-peak times could provide DR without requiring consumers to operate their appliances on shifted or reduced schedules: Storage would be dispatched to appliances as needed while still shaving peaks on the grid. Technologically, storage and two-way-inverters are readily available to enable such residential DR. Economically, however, the situation is less clear. Specifically, are time-varying electricity tariffs available such that electricity cost reduction via arbitrage could offset manufacturing, financing, and installation costs of the required storage? To address this question we (i) devise an agent-based appliance-level stochastic model to simulate the electricity demand of an average U.S. household; (ii) loadshift the demand via simple dispatch strategies; and (iii) determine potential profits to the building owner, i.e. reduced electricity cost of the modified demand with realistic tariffs (Con Edison, NY) minus storage cost. We determine the economic viability for a range of traditional and advanced storage technologies

  15. Modeling the mechanical response of PBX 9501

    Ragaswamy, Partha [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Lewis, Matthew W [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Liu, Cheng [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Thompson, Darla G [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2010-01-01

    An engineering overview of the mechanical response of Plastic-Bonded eXplosives (PBXs), specifically PBX 9501, will be provided with emphasis on observed mechanisms associated with different types of mechanical testing. Mechanical tests in the form of uniaxial tension, compression, cyclic loading, creep (compression and tension), and Hopkinson bar show strain rate and temperature dependence. A range of mechanical behavior is observed which includes small strain recoverable response in the form of viscoelasticity; change in stiffness and softening beyond peak strength due to damage in the form microcracks, debonding, void formation and the growth of existing voids; inelastic response in the form of irrecoverable strain as shown in cyclic tests, and viscoelastic creep combined with plastic response as demonstrated in creep and recovery tests. The main focus of this paper is to elucidate the challenges and issues involved in modeling the mechanical behavior of PBXs for simulating thermo-mechanical responses in engineering components. Examples of validation of a constitutive material model based on a few of the observed mechanisms will be demonstrated against three point bending, split Hopkinson pressure bar and Brazilian disk geometry.

  16. Population-expression models of immune response

    Stromberg, Sean P; Antia, Rustom; Nemenman, Ilya

    2013-01-01

    The immune response to a pathogen has two basic features. The first is the expansion of a few pathogen-specific cells to form a population large enough to control the pathogen. The second is the process of differentiation of cells from an initial naive phenotype to an effector phenotype which controls the pathogen, and subsequently to a memory phenotype that is maintained and responsible for long-term protection. The expansion and the differentiation have been considered largely independently. Changes in cell populations are typically described using ecologically based ordinary differential equation models. In contrast, differentiation of single cells is studied within systems biology and is frequently modeled by considering changes in gene and protein expression in individual cells. Recent advances in experimental systems biology make available for the first time data to allow the coupling of population and high dimensional expression data of immune cells during infections. Here we describe and develop population-expression models which integrate these two processes into systems biology on the multicellular level. When translated into mathematical equations, these models result in non-conservative, non-local advection-diffusion equations. We describe situations where the population-expression approach can make correct inference from data while previous modeling approaches based on common simplifying assumptions would fail. We also explore how model reduction techniques can be used to build population-expression models, minimizing the complexity of the model while keeping the essential features of the system. While we consider problems in immunology in this paper, we expect population-expression models to be more broadly applicable. (paper)

  17. The endocrine stress response is linked to one specific locus on chromosome 3 in a mouse model based on extremes in trait anxiety

    Gonik Mariya

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA axis is essential to control physiological stress responses in mammals. Its dysfunction is related to several mental disorders, including anxiety and depression. The aim of this study was to identify genetic loci underlying the endocrine regulation of the HPA axis. Method High (HAB and low (LAB anxiety-related behaviour mice were established by selective inbreeding of outbred CD-1 mice to model extremes in trait anxiety. Additionally, HAB vs. LAB mice exhibit comorbid characteristics including a differential corticosterone response upon stress exposure. We crossbred HAB and LAB lines to create F1 and F2 offspring. To identify the contribution of the endocrine phenotypes to the total phenotypic variance, we examined multiple behavioural paradigms together with corticosterone secretion-based phenotypes in F2 mice by principal component analysis. Further, to pinpoint the genomic loci of the quantitative trait of the HPA axis stress response, we conducted genome-wide multipoint oligogenic linkage analyses based on Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo approach as well as parametric linkage in three-generation pedigrees, followed by a two-dimensional scan for epistasis and association analysis in freely segregating F2 mice using 267 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs, which were identified to consistently differ between HAB and LAB mice as genetic markers. Results HPA axis reactivity measurements and behavioural phenotypes were represented by independent principal components and demonstrated no correlation. Based on this finding, we identified one single quantitative trait locus (QTL on chromosome 3 showing a very strong evidence for linkage (2ln (L-score > 10, LOD > 23 and significant association (lowest Bonferroni adjusted p -28 to the neuroendocrine stress response. The location of the linkage peak was estimated at 42.3 cM (95% confidence interval: 41.3 - 43.3 cM and was shown to be in

  18. Quantifying the dose-response relationship between circulating folate concentrations and colorectal cancer in cohort studies: a meta-analysis based on a flexible meta-regression model.

    Chuang, Shu-Chun; Rota, Matteo; Gunter, Marc J; Zeleniuch-Jacquotte, Anne; Eussen, Simone J P M; Vollset, Stein Emil; Ueland, Per Magne; Norat, Teresa; Ziegler, Regina G; Vineis, Paolo

    2013-10-01

    Most epidemiologic studies on folate intake suggest that folate may be protective against colorectal cancer, but the results on circulating (plasma or serum) folate are mostly inconclusive. We conducted a meta-analysis of case-control studies nested within prospective studies on circulating folate and colorectal cancer risk by using flexible meta-regression models to test the linear and nonlinear dose-response relationships. A total of 8 publications (10 cohorts, representing 3,477 cases and 7,039 controls) were included in the meta-analysis. The linear and nonlinear models corresponded to relative risks of 0.96 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.91, 1.02) and 0.99 (95% CI: 0.96, 1.02), respectively, per 10 nmol/L of circulating folate in contrast to the reference value. The pooled relative risks when comparing the highest with the lowest category were 0.80 (95% CI: 0.61, 0.99) for radioimmunoassay and 1.03 (95% CI: 0.83, 1.22) for microbiological assay. Overall, our analyses suggest a null association between circulating folate and colorectal cancer risk. The stronger association for the radioimmunoassay-based studies could reflect differences in cohorts and study designs rather than assay performance. Further investigations need to integrate more accurate measurements and flexible modeling to explore the effects of folate in the presence of genetic, lifestyle, dietary, and hormone-related factors.

  19. Modelling structural systems for transient response analysis

    Melosh, R.J.

    1975-01-01

    This paper introduces and reports success of a direct means of determining the time periods in which a structural system behaves as a linear system. Numerical results are based on post fracture transient analyses of simplified nuclear piping systems. Knowledge of the linear response ranges will lead to improved analysis-test correlation and more efficient analyses. It permits direct use of data from physical tests in analysis and simplication of the analytical model and interpretation of its behavior. The paper presents a procedure for deducing linearity based on transient responses. Given the forcing functions and responses of discrete points of the system at various times, the process produces evidence of linearity and quantifies an adequate set of equations of motion. Results of use of the process with linear and nonlinear analyses of piping systems with damping illustrate its success. Results cover the application to data from mathematical system responses. The process is successfull with mathematical models. In loading ranges in which all modes are excited, eight digit accuracy of predictions are obtained from the equations of motion deduced. Small changes (less than 0.01%) in the norm of the transfer matrices are produced by manipulation errors for linear systems yielding evidence that nonlinearity is easily distinguished. Significant changes (greater than five %) are coincident with relatively large norms of the equilibrium correction vector in nonlinear analyses. The paper shows that deducing linearity and, when admissible, quantifying linear equations of motion from transient response data for piping systems can be achieved with accuracy comparable to that of response data

  20. NGC1300 dynamics - II. The response models

    Kalapotharakos, C.; Patsis, P. A.; Grosbøl, P.

    2010-10-01

    We study the stellar response in a spectrum of potentials describing the barred spiral galaxy NGC1300. These potentials have been presented in a previous paper and correspond to three different assumptions as regards the geometry of the galaxy. For each potential we consider a wide range of Ωp pattern speed values. Our goal is to discover the geometries and the Ωp supporting specific morphological features of NGC1300. For this purpose we use the method of response models. In order to compare the images of NGC1300 with the density maps of our models, we define a new index which is a generalization of the Hausdorff distance. This index helps us to find out quantitatively which cases reproduce specific features of NGC1300 in an objective way. Furthermore, we construct alternative models following a Schwarzschild-type technique. By this method we vary the weights of the various energy levels, and thus the orbital contribution of each energy, in order to minimize the differences between the response density and that deduced from the surface density of the galaxy, under certain assumptions. We find that the models corresponding to Ωp ~ 16 and 22 kms-1kpc-1 are able to reproduce efficiently certain morphological features of NGC1300, with each one having its advantages and drawbacks. Based on observations collected at the European Southern Observatory, Chile: programme ESO 69.A-0021. E-mail: ckalapot@phys.uoa.gr (CK); patsis@academyofathens.gr (PAP); pgrosbol@eso.org (PG)

  1. Development and evaluation of a LOR-based image reconstruction with 3D system response modeling for a PET insert with dual-layer offset crystal design

    Zhang, Xuezhu; Thiessen, Jonathan D; Goertzen, Andrew L; Stortz, Greg; Sossi, Vesna; Thompson, Christopher J; Retière, Fabrice; Kozlowski, Piotr

    2013-01-01

    In this study we present a method of 3D system response calculation for analytical computer simulation and statistical image reconstruction for a magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) compatible positron emission tomography (PET) insert system that uses a dual-layer offset (DLO) crystal design. The general analytical system response functions (SRFs) for detector geometric and inter-crystal penetration of coincident crystal pairs are derived first. We implemented a 3D ray-tracing algorithm with 4π sampling for calculating the SRFs of coincident pairs of individual DLO crystals. The determination of which detector blocks are intersected by a gamma ray is made by calculating the intersection of the ray with virtual cylinders with radii just inside the inner surface and just outside the outer-edge of each crystal layer of the detector ring. For efficient ray-tracing computation, the detector block and ray to be traced are then rotated so that the crystals are aligned along the X-axis, facilitating calculation of ray/crystal boundary intersection points. This algorithm can be applied to any system geometry using either single-layer (SL) or multi-layer array design with or without offset crystals. For effective data organization, a direct lines of response (LOR)-based indexed histogram-mode method is also presented in this work. SRF calculation is performed on-the-fly in both forward and back projection procedures during each iteration of image reconstruction, with acceleration through use of eight-fold geometric symmetry and multi-threaded parallel computation. To validate the proposed methods, we performed a series of analytical and Monte Carlo computer simulations for different system geometry and detector designs. The full-width-at-half-maximum of the numerical SRFs in both radial and tangential directions are calculated and compared for various system designs. By inspecting the sinograms obtained for different detector geometries, it can be seen that the DLO crystal

  2. Modeling the ionosphere-thermosphere response to a geomagnetic storm using physics-based magnetospheric energy input: OpenGGCM-CTIM results

    Connor Hyunju Kim

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The magnetosphere is a major source of energy for the Earth’s ionosphere and thermosphere (IT system. Current IT models drive the upper atmosphere using empirically calculated magnetospheric energy input. Thus, they do not sufficiently capture the storm-time dynamics, particularly at high latitudes. To improve the prediction capability of IT models, a physics-based magnetospheric input is necessary. Here, we use the Open Global General Circulation Model (OpenGGCM coupled with the Coupled Thermosphere Ionosphere Model (CTIM. OpenGGCM calculates a three-dimensional global magnetosphere and a two-dimensional high-latitude ionosphere by solving resistive magnetohydrodynamic (MHD equations with solar wind input. CTIM calculates a global thermosphere and a high-latitude ionosphere in three dimensions using realistic magnetospheric inputs from the OpenGGCM. We investigate whether the coupled model improves the storm-time IT responses by simulating a geomagnetic storm that is preceded by a strong solar wind pressure front on August 24, 2005. We compare the OpenGGCM-CTIM results with low-earth-orbit satellite observations and with the model results of Coupled Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Plasmasphere electrodynamics (CTIPe. CTIPe is an up-to-date version of CTIM that incorporates more IT dynamics such as a low-latitude ionosphere and a plasmasphere, but uses empirical magnetospheric input. OpenGGCM-CTIM reproduces localized neutral density peaks at ~ 400 km altitude in the high-latitude dayside regions in agreement with in situ observations during the pressure shock and the early phase of the storm. Although CTIPe is in some sense a much superior model than CTIM, it misses these localized enhancements. Unlike the CTIPe empirical input models, OpenGGCM-CTIM more faithfully produces localized increases of both auroral precipitation and ionospheric electric fields near the high-latitude dayside region after the pressure shock and after the storm onset

  3. Web Based VRML Modelling

    Kiss, S.; Sarfraz, M.

    2004-01-01

    Presents a method to connect VRML (Virtual Reality Modeling Language) and Java components in a Web page using EAI (External Authoring Interface), which makes it possible to interactively generate and edit VRML meshes. The meshes used are based on regular grids, to provide an interaction and modeling

  4. Modelling non-ignorable missing data mechanisms with item response theory models

    Holman, Rebecca; Glas, Cornelis A.W.

    2005-01-01

    A model-based procedure for assessing the extent to which missing data can be ignored and handling non-ignorable missing data is presented. The procedure is based on item response theory modelling. As an example, the approach is worked out in detail in conjunction with item response data modelled

  5. Modelling non-ignorable missing-data mechanisms with item response theory models

    Holman, Rebecca; Glas, Cees A. W.

    2005-01-01

    A model-based procedure for assessing the extent to which missing data can be ignored and handling non-ignorable missing data is presented. The procedure is based on item response theory modelling. As an example, the approach is worked out in detail in conjunction with item response data modelled

  6. Gender Responsive Community Based Planning and Budgeting ...

    ... Responsive Community Based Planning and Budgeting Tool for Local Governance ... in data collection, and another module that facilitates gender responsive and ... In partnership with UNESCO's Organization for Women in Science for the ...

  7. STRESS RESPONSE STUDIES USING ANIMAL MODELS

    This presentation will provide the evidence that ozone exposure in animal models induce neuroendocrine stress response and this stress response modulates lung injury and inflammation through adrenergic and glucocorticoid receptors.

  8. An Agent-Based Model of a Hepatic Inflammatory Response to Salmonella: A Computational Study under a Large Set of Experimental Data.

    Shi, Zhenzhen; Chapes, Stephen K; Ben-Arieh, David; Wu, Chih-Hang

    2016-01-01

    We present an agent-based model (ABM) to simulate a hepatic inflammatory response (HIR) in a mouse infected by Salmonella that sometimes progressed to problematic proportions, known as "sepsis". Based on over 200 published studies, this ABM describes interactions among 21 cells or cytokines and incorporates 226 experimental data sets and/or data estimates from those reports to simulate a mouse HIR in silico. Our simulated results reproduced dynamic patterns of HIR reported in the literature. As shown in vivo, our model also demonstrated that sepsis was highly related to the initial Salmonella dose and the presence of components of the adaptive immune system. We determined that high mobility group box-1, C-reactive protein, and the interleukin-10: tumor necrosis factor-α ratio, and CD4+ T cell: CD8+ T cell ratio, all recognized as biomarkers during HIR, significantly correlated with outcomes of HIR. During therapy-directed silico simulations, our results demonstrated that anti-agent intervention impacted the survival rates of septic individuals in a time-dependent manner. By specifying the infected species, source of infection, and site of infection, this ABM enabled us to reproduce the kinetics of several essential indicators during a HIR, observe distinct dynamic patterns that are manifested during HIR, and allowed us to test proposed therapy-directed treatments. Although limitation still exists, this ABM is a step forward because it links underlying biological processes to computational simulation and was validated through a series of comparisons between the simulated results and experimental studies.

  9. Modeling listeners' emotional response to music.

    Eerola, Tuomas

    2012-10-01

    An overview of the computational prediction of emotional responses to music is presented. Communication of emotions by music has received a great deal of attention during the last years and a large number of empirical studies have described the role of individual features (tempo, mode, articulation, timbre) in predicting the emotions suggested or invoked by the music. However, unlike the present work, relatively few studies have attempted to model continua of expressed emotions using a variety of musical features from audio-based representations in a correlation design. The construction of the computational model is divided into four separate phases, with a different focus for evaluation. These phases include the theoretical selection of relevant features, empirical assessment of feature validity, actual feature selection, and overall evaluation of the model. Existing research on music and emotions and extraction of musical features is reviewed in terms of these criteria. Examples drawn from recent studies of emotions within the context of film soundtracks are used to demonstrate each phase in the construction of the model. These models are able to explain the dominant part of the listeners' self-reports of the emotions expressed by music and the models show potential to generalize over different genres within Western music. Possible applications of the computational models of emotions are discussed. Copyright © 2012 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

  10. Natural History of Dependency in the Elderly: A 24-Year Population-Based Study Using a Longitudinal Item Response Theory Model.

    Edjolo, Arlette; Proust-Lima, Cécile; Delva, Fleur; Dartigues, Jean-François; Pérès, Karine

    2016-02-15

    We aimed to describe the hierarchical structure of Instrumental Activities of Daily Living (IADL) and basic Activities of Daily Living (ADL) and trajectories of dependency before death in an elderly population using item response theory methodology. Data were obtained from a population-based French cohort study, the Personnes Agées QUID (PAQUID) Study, of persons aged ≥65 years at baseline in 1988 who were recruited from 75 randomly selected areas in Gironde and Dordogne. We evaluated IADL and ADL data collected at home every 2-3 years over a 24-year period (1988-2012) for 3,238 deceased participants (43.9% men). We used a longitudinal item response theory model to investigate the item sequence of 11 IADL and ADL combined into a single scale and functional trajectories adjusted for education, sex, and age at death. The findings confirmed the earliest losses in IADL (shopping, transporting, finances) at the partial limitation level, and then an overlapping of concomitant IADL and ADL, with bathing and dressing being the earliest ADL losses, and finally total losses for toileting, continence, eating, and transferring. Functional trajectories were sex-specific, with a benefit of high education that persisted until death in men but was only transient in women. An in-depth understanding of this sequence provides an early warning of functional decline for better adaptation of medical and social care in the elderly. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  11. Model Based Temporal Reasoning

    Rabin, Marla J.; Spinrad, Paul R.; Fall, Thomas C.

    1988-03-01

    Systems that assess the real world must cope with evidence that is uncertain, ambiguous, and spread over time. Typically, the most important function of an assessment system is to identify when activities are occurring that are unusual or unanticipated. Model based temporal reasoning addresses both of these requirements. The differences among temporal reasoning schemes lies in the methods used to avoid computational intractability. If we had n pieces of data and we wanted to examine how they were related, the worst case would be where we had to examine every subset of these points to see if that subset satisfied the relations. This would be 2n, which is intractable. Models compress this; if several data points are all compatible with a model, then that model represents all those data points. Data points are then considered related if they lie within the same model or if they lie in models that are related. Models thus address the intractability problem. They also address the problem of determining unusual activities if the data do not agree with models that are indicated by earlier data then something out of the norm is taking place. The models can summarize what we know up to that time, so when they are not predicting correctly, either something unusual is happening or we need to revise our models. The model based reasoner developed at Advanced Decision Systems is thus both intuitive and powerful. It is currently being used on one operational system and several prototype systems. It has enough power to be used in domains spanning the spectrum from manufacturing engineering and project management to low-intensity conflict and strategic assessment.

  12. Real-time simulation of response to load variation for a ship reactor based on point-reactor double regions and lumped parameter model

    Wang Qiao; Zhang De [Department of Nuclear Energy Science and Engineering, Naval University of Engineering, Wuhan 430033 (China); Chen Wenzhen, E-mail: Cwz2@21cn.com [Department of Nuclear Energy Science and Engineering, Naval University of Engineering, Wuhan 430033 (China); Chen Zhiyun [Department of Nuclear Energy Science and Engineering, Naval University of Engineering, Wuhan 430033 (China)

    2011-05-15

    Research highlights: > We calculate the variation of main parameters of the reactor core by the Simulink. > The Simulink calculation software (SCS) can deal well with the stiff problem. > The high calculation precision is reached with less time, and the results can be easily displayed. > The quick calculation of ship reactor transient can be achieved by this method. - Abstract: Based on the point-reactor double regions and lumped parameter model, while the nuclear power plant second loop load is increased or decreased quickly, the Simulink calculation software (SCS) is adopted to calculate the variation of main physical and thermal-hydraulic parameters of the reactor core. The calculation results are compared with those of three-dimensional simulation program. It is indicated that the SCS can deal well with the stiff problem of the point-reactor kinetics equations and the coupled problem of neutronics and thermal-hydraulics. The high calculation precision can be reached with less time, and the quick calculation of parameters of response to load disturbance for the ship reactor can be achieved. The clear image of the calculation results can also be displayed quickly by the SCS, which is very significant and important to guarantee the reactor safety operation.

  13. Stochastic Still Water Response Model

    Friis-Hansen, Peter; Ditlevsen, Ove Dalager

    2002-01-01

    In this study a stochastic field model for the still water loading is formulated where the statistics (mean value, standard deviation, and correlation) of the sectional forces are obtained by integration of the load field over the relevant part of the ship structure. The objective of the model is...... out that an important parameter of the stochastic cargo field model is the mean number of containers delivered by each customer.......In this study a stochastic field model for the still water loading is formulated where the statistics (mean value, standard deviation, and correlation) of the sectional forces are obtained by integration of the load field over the relevant part of the ship structure. The objective of the model...... is to establish the stochastic load field conditional on a given draft and trim of the vessel. The model contributes to a realistic modelling of the stochastic load processes to be used in a reliability evaluation of the ship hull. Emphasis is given to container vessels. The formulation of the model for obtaining...

  14. Modeling the adequacy of dietary fiber in dairy cows based on the responses of ruminal pH and milk fat production to composition of the diet.

    Zebeli, Q; Dijkstra, J; Tafaj, M; Steingass, H; Ametaj, B N; Drochner, W

    2008-05-01

    The main objective of this study was to develop practical models to assess and predict the adequacy of dietary fiber in high-yielding dairy cows. We used quantitative methods to analyze relevant research data and critically evaluate and determine the responses of ruminal pH and production performance to different variables including physical, chemical, and starch-degrading characteristics of the diet. Further, extensive data were used to model the magnitude of ruminal pH fluctuations and determine the threshold for the development of subacute ruminal acidosis (SARA). Results of this study showed that to minimize the risk of SARA, the following events should be avoided: 1) a daily mean ruminal pH lower than 6.16, and 2) a time period in which ruminal pH is content of physically effective neutral detergent fiber (peNDF) or the ratio between peNDF and rumen-degradable starch from grains in the diet increased up to 31.2 +/- 1.6% [dry matter (DM) basis] or 1.45 +/- 0.22, respectively, so did the daily mean ruminal pH, for which a asymptotic plateau was reached at a pH of 6.20 to 6.27. This study also showed that digestibility of fiber in the total tract depends on ruminal pH and outflow rate of digesta from reticulorumen; thereby both variables explained 62% of the variation of fiber digestibility. Feeding diets with peNDF content up to 31.9 +/- 1.97% (DM basis) slightly decreased DM intake and actual milk yield; however, 3.5% fat-corrected milk and milk fat yield were increased, resulting in greater milk energy efficiency. In conclusion, a level of about 30 to 33% peNDF in the diet may be considered generally optimal for minimizing the risk of SARA without impairing important production responses in high-yielding dairy cows. In terms of improvement of the accuracy to assessing dietary fiber adequacy, it is suggested that the content of peNDF required to stabilize ruminal pH and maintain milk fat content without compromising milk energy efficiency can be arranged based

  15. Modeling the Adequacy of Dietary Fiber in Dairy Cows Based on the Responses of Ruminal pH and Milk Fat Production to Composition of the Diet

    Zebeli, Q.; Dijkstra, J.; Tafaj, M.; Steingass, H.; Ametaj, B.N.; Drochner, W.

    2008-01-01

    The main objective of this study was to develop practical models to assess and predict the adequacy of dietary fiber in high-yielding dairy cows. We used quantitative methods to analyze relevant research data and critically evaluate and determine the responses of ruminal pH and production

  16. Lithologic Effects on Landscape Response to Base Level Changes: A Modeling Study in the Context of the Eastern Jura Mountains, Switzerland

    Yanites, Brian J.; Becker, Jens K.; Madritsch, Herfried; Schnellmann, Michael; Ehlers, Todd A.

    2017-11-01

    Landscape evolution is a product of the forces that drive geomorphic processes (e.g., tectonics and climate) and the resistance to those processes. The underlying lithology and structural setting in many landscapes set the resistance to erosion. This study uses a modified version of the Channel-Hillslope Integrated Landscape Development (CHILD) landscape evolution model to determine the effect of a spatially and temporally changing erodibility in a terrain with a complex base level history. Specifically, our focus is to quantify how the effects of variable lithology influence transient base level signals. We set up a series of numerical landscape evolution models with increasing levels of complexity based on the lithologic variability and base level history of the Jura Mountains of northern Switzerland. The models are consistent with lithology (and therewith erodibility) playing an important role in the transient evolution of the landscape. The results show that the erosion rate history at a location depends on the rock uplift and base level history, the range of erodibilities of the different lithologies, and the history of the surface geology downstream from the analyzed location. Near the model boundary, the history of erosion is dominated by the base level history. The transient wave of incision, however, is quite variable in the different model runs and depends on the geometric structure of lithology used. It is thus important to constrain the spatiotemporal erodibility patterns downstream of any given point of interest to understand the evolution of a landscape subject to variable base level in a quantitative framework.

  17. Skull base tumor model.

    Gragnaniello, Cristian; Nader, Remi; van Doormaal, Tristan; Kamel, Mahmoud; Voormolen, Eduard H J; Lasio, Giovanni; Aboud, Emad; Regli, Luca; Tulleken, Cornelius A F; Al-Mefty, Ossama

    2010-11-01

    Resident duty-hours restrictions have now been instituted in many countries worldwide. Shortened training times and increased public scrutiny of surgical competency have led to a move away from the traditional apprenticeship model of training. The development of educational models for brain anatomy is a fascinating innovation allowing neurosurgeons to train without the need to practice on real patients and it may be a solution to achieve competency within a shortened training period. The authors describe the use of Stratathane resin ST-504 polymer (SRSP), which is inserted at different intracranial locations to closely mimic meningiomas and other pathological entities of the skull base, in a cadaveric model, for use in neurosurgical training. Silicone-injected and pressurized cadaveric heads were used for studying the SRSP model. The SRSP presents unique intrinsic metamorphic characteristics: liquid at first, it expands and foams when injected into the desired area of the brain, forming a solid tumorlike structure. The authors injected SRSP via different passages that did not influence routes used for the surgical approach for resection of the simulated lesion. For example, SRSP injection routes included endonasal transsphenoidal or transoral approaches if lesions were to be removed through standard skull base approach, or, alternatively, SRSP was injected via a cranial approach if the removal was planned to be via the transsphenoidal or transoral route. The model was set in place in 3 countries (US, Italy, and The Netherlands), and a pool of 13 physicians from 4 different institutions (all surgeons and surgeons in training) participated in evaluating it and provided feedback. All 13 evaluating physicians had overall positive impressions of the model. The overall score on 9 components evaluated--including comparison between the tumor model and real tumor cases, perioperative requirements, general impression, and applicability--was 88% (100% being the best possible

  18. Impulse-response analysis of the market share attraction model

    D. Fok (Dennis); Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans)

    1999-01-01

    textabstractWe propose a simulation-based technique to calculate impulse-response functions and their confidence intervals in a market share attraction model [MCI]. As an MCI model implies a reduced form model for the logs of relative market shares, simulation techniques have to be used to obtain

  19. Process-based modelling of fluvial system response to rapid climate change: 2. application to the River Maas (The Netherlands) during the Last Glacial-Interglacial Transition

    Bogaart, P.W.; Balen, van R.T.; Kasse, C.; Vandenberghe, J.

    2003-01-01

    A comprehensive process-based numerical model of catchment hydrology and alluvial channel dynamics is applied to the evolution of the river Maas during the Last Glacial-Interglacial Transition. Palaeo-climatological reconstructions based on a number of climatic and environmental proxies are combined

  20. Source-Based Modeling Of Urban Stormwater Quality Response to the Selected Scenarios Combining Future Changes in Climate and Socio-Economic Factors.

    Borris, Matthias; Leonhardt, Günther; Marsalek, Jiri; Österlund, Heléne; Viklander, Maria

    2016-08-01

    The assessment of future trends in urban stormwater quality should be most helpful for ensuring the effectiveness of the existing stormwater quality infrastructure in the future and mitigating the associated impacts on receiving waters. Combined effects of expected changes in climate and socio-economic factors on stormwater quality were examined in two urban test catchments by applying a source-based computer model (WinSLAMM) for TSS and three heavy metals (copper, lead, and zinc) for various future scenarios. Generally, both catchments showed similar responses to the future scenarios and pollutant loads were generally more sensitive to changes in socio-economic factors (i.e., increasing traffic intensities, growth and intensification of the individual land-uses) than in the climate. Specifically, for the selected Intermediate socio-economic scenario and two climate change scenarios (RSP = 2.6 and 8.5), the TSS loads from both catchments increased by about 10 % on average, but when applying the Intermediate climate change scenario (RCP = 4.5) for two SSPs, the Sustainability and Security scenarios (SSP1 and SSP3), the TSS loads increased on average by 70 %. Furthermore, it was observed that well-designed and maintained stormwater treatment facilities targeting local pollution hotspots exhibited the potential to significantly improve stormwater quality, however, at potentially high costs. In fact, it was possible to reduce pollutant loads from both catchments under the future Sustainability scenario (on average, e.g., TSS were reduced by 20 %), compared to the current conditions. The methodology developed in this study was found useful for planning climate change adaptation strategies in the context of local conditions.

  1. Source-Based Modeling Of Urban Stormwater Quality Response to the Selected Scenarios Combining Future Changes in Climate and Socio-Economic Factors

    Borris, Matthias; Leonhardt, Günther; Marsalek, Jiri; Österlund, Heléne; Viklander, Maria

    2016-08-01

    The assessment of future trends in urban stormwater quality should be most helpful for ensuring the effectiveness of the existing stormwater quality infrastructure in the future and mitigating the associated impacts on receiving waters. Combined effects of expected changes in climate and socio-economic factors on stormwater quality were examined in two urban test catchments by applying a source-based computer model (WinSLAMM) for TSS and three heavy metals (copper, lead, and zinc) for various future scenarios. Generally, both catchments showed similar responses to the future scenarios and pollutant loads were generally more sensitive to changes in socio-economic factors (i.e., increasing traffic intensities, growth and intensification of the individual land-uses) than in the climate. Specifically, for the selected Intermediate socio-economic scenario and two climate change scenarios (RSP = 2.6 and 8.5), the TSS loads from both catchments increased by about 10 % on average, but when applying the Intermediate climate change scenario (RCP = 4.5) for two SSPs, the Sustainability and Security scenarios (SSP1 and SSP3), the TSS loads increased on average by 70 %. Furthermore, it was observed that well-designed and maintained stormwater treatment facilities targeting local pollution hotspots exhibited the potential to significantly improve stormwater quality, however, at potentially high costs. In fact, it was possible to reduce pollutant loads from both catchments under the future Sustainability scenario (on average, e.g., TSS were reduced by 20 %), compared to the current conditions. The methodology developed in this study was found useful for planning climate change adaptation strategies in the context of local conditions.

  2. A GIS-Based Model for the analysis of an urban flash flood and its hydro-geomorphic response. The Valencia event of 1957

    Portugués-Mollá, I.; Bonache-Felici, X.; Mateu-Bellés, J. F.; Marco-Segura, J. B.

    2016-10-01

    Flash floods are recurrent events around the Mediterranean region. Extreme episodes activate hydro-geomorphic high-intensity processes with low frequency. In urban environments, the complexity becomes higher due to the existence of very quick-response runoff. However, immediate recovery works remove the urban marks. After a short time both the significance and magnitude of the hydro-geomorphic event become completely unrecognizable. Nevertheless, these episodes generate extensive documentation which is testimony of the processes in almost real time. It is necessary to exploit this source typology in order to draw flood sketches when events far in time may lack a sufficiently rich database. This is particularly the case for the Valencia flash flood (October 1957), located in the lower Turia River basin (Eastern Spain). It left numerous pieces of hydro-geomorphic evidence, but its tracks were covered a short while after the flood. In any case, it remains part of a non-systematic legacy that has not yet been exploited, consisting of immediate aerial and oblique high resolution photography, pictures at street level, water marks and administrative records. Paradoxically, despite being considered a milestone in metropolitan territorial planning (the river was definitely diverted), an accurate reconstruction of the hydraulic behaviour was required from an integrated point of view. To this aim, the development of a GIS-Based Model enabled the utilisation of the above-mentioned materials. This non-conventional information was treated jointly from a new perspective. It provided database support through a vast amount of organised, structured and georeferenced information about the 1957 event. In a second stage, the GBM made it possible to characterise the Turia urban reach and interpret both the hydro-geomorphic (trenches along barrier beaches, erosion, deposition, etc.) and hydraulic (urban streams along the streets, flow directions, flood extent, levees breaks, overflows

  3. Multi-response model for rheumatoid arthritis based on delay differential equations in collagen-induced arthritic mice treated with an anti-GM-CSF antibody.

    Koch, Gilbert; Wagner, Thomas; Plater-Zyberk, Christine; Lahu, Gezim; Schropp, Johannes

    2012-02-01

    Collagen-induced arthritis (CIA) in mice is an experimental model for rheumatoid arthritis, a human chronic inflammatory destructive disease. The therapeutic effect of neutralizing the cytokine granulocyte-macrophage colony-stimulating factor (GM-CSF) by an antibody was examined in the mouse disease in a view of deriving a pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PKPD) model. In CIA mice the development of disease is measured by a total arthritic score (TAS) and an ankylosis score (AKS). We present a multi-response PKPD model which describes the time course of the unperturbed and perturbed TAS and AKS. The antibody acts directly on GM-CSF by binding to it. Therefore, a compartment for the cytokine GM-CSF is an essential component of the mathematical model. This compartment drives the disease development in the PKPD model. Different known properties of arthritis development in the CIA model are included in the PKPD model. Firstly, the inflammation, driven by GM-CSF, dominates at the beginning of the disease and decreases after some time. Secondly, a destructive (ankylosis) part evolves in the TAS that is delayed in time. In order to model these two properties a delay differential equation was used. The PKPD model was applied to different experiments with doses ranging from 0.1 to 100 mg/kg. The influence of the drug was modeled by a non-linear approach. The final mathematical model consists of three differential equations representing the compartments for GM-CSF, inflammation and destruction. Our mathematical model described well all available dosing schedules by a simultaneous fit. We also present an equivalent and easy reformulation as ordinary differential equation which grants the use of standard PKPD software.

  4. Removal of 4-chlorophenol from aqueous solution by granular activated carbon/nanoscale zero valent iron based on Response Surface Modeling

    Majlesi Monireh

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The phenolic compounds are known as priority pollutants, even in low concentrations, as a result of their toxicity and non-biodegradability. For this reason, strict standards have been established for them. In addition, chlorophenols are placed in the 38th to 43th in highest priority order of toxic pollutants. As a consequence, contaminated water or wastewaters with phenolic compounds have to be treated before discharging into the receiving water. In this study, Response Surface Methodology (RSM has been used in order to optimize the effect of main operational variables responsible for the higher 4-chlorophenol removal by Activated Carbon-Supported Nanoscale Zero Valent Iron (AC/NZVI. A Box-Behnken factorial Design (BBD with three levels was applied to optimize the initial concentration, time, pH, and adsorbent dose. The characterization of adsorbents was conducted by using SEM-EDS and XRD analyses. Furthermore, the adsorption isotherm and kinetics of 4-chlorophenol on AC and AC/NZVI under various conditions were studied. The model anticipated 100% removal efficiency for AC/NZVI at the optimum concentration (5.48 mg 4-chlorophenol/L, pH (5.44, contact time (44.7 min and dose (0.65g/L. Analysis of the response surface quadratic model signified that the experiments are accurate and the model is highly significant. Moreover, the synthetic adsorbent is highly efficient in removing of 4-chlorophenol.

  5. Model for Managing Corporate Social Responsibility

    Tamara Vlastelica Bakić

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available As a crossfuncional process in the organization, effective management of corporate social responsibility requires a definition of strategies, programs and an action plan that structures this process from its initiation to the measurement of end effects. Academic literature on the topic of corporate social responsibility is mainly focused on the exploration of the business case for the concept, i.e., the determination of effects of social responsibility on individual aspects of the business. Scientific research so far has shown not to have been committed to formalizing management concept in this domain to a satisfactory extent; it is for this reason that this paper attempts to present one model for managing corporate social responsibility. The model represents a contribution to the theory and business practice of corporate social responsibility, as it offers a strategic framework for systematic planning, implementation and evaluation of socially responsible activities and programs.

  6. Prediction error variance and expected response to selection, when selection is based on the best predictor - for Gaussian and threshold characters, traits following a Poisson mixed model and survival traits

    Andersen, Anders Holst; Korsgaard, Inge Riis; Jensen, Just

    2002-01-01

    In this paper, we consider selection based on the best predictor of animal additive genetic values in Gaussian linear mixed models, threshold models, Poisson mixed models, and log normal frailty models for survival data (including models with time-dependent covariates with associated fixed...... or random effects). In the different models, expressions are given (when these can be found - otherwise unbiased estimates are given) for prediction error variance, accuracy of selection and expected response to selection on the additive genetic scale and on the observed scale. The expressions given for non...... Gaussian traits are generalisations of the well-known formulas for Gaussian traits - and reflect, for Poisson mixed models and frailty models for survival data, the hierarchal structure of the models. In general the ratio of the additive genetic variance to the total variance in the Gaussian part...

  7. Response moderation models for conditional dependence between response time and response accuracy.

    Bolsinova, Maria; Tijmstra, Jesper; Molenaar, Dylan

    2017-05-01

    It is becoming more feasible and common to register response times in the application of psychometric tests. Researchers thus have the opportunity to jointly model response accuracy and response time, which provides users with more relevant information. The most common choice is to use the hierarchical model (van der Linden, 2007, Psychometrika, 72, 287), which assumes conditional independence between response time and accuracy, given a person's speed and ability. However, this assumption may be violated in practice if, for example, persons vary their speed or differ in their response strategies, leading to conditional dependence between response time and accuracy and confounding measurement. We propose six nested hierarchical models for response time and accuracy that allow for conditional dependence, and discuss their relationship to existing models. Unlike existing approaches, the proposed hierarchical models allow for various forms of conditional dependence in the model and allow the effect of continuous residual response time on response accuracy to be item-specific, person-specific, or both. Estimation procedures for the models are proposed, as well as two information criteria that can be used for model selection. Parameter recovery and usefulness of the information criteria are investigated using simulation, indicating that the procedure works well and is likely to select the appropriate model. Two empirical applications are discussed to illustrate the different types of conditional dependence that may occur in practice and how these can be captured using the proposed hierarchical models. © 2016 The British Psychological Society.

  8. Firing-rate based network modeling of the dLGN circuit: Effects of cortical feedback on spatiotemporal response properties of relay cells.

    Mobarhan, Milad Hobbi; Halnes, Geir; Martínez-Cañada, Pablo; Hafting, Torkel; Fyhn, Marianne; Einevoll, Gaute T

    2018-05-01

    Visually evoked signals in the retina pass through the dorsal geniculate nucleus (dLGN) on the way to the visual cortex. This is however not a simple feedforward flow of information: there is a significant feedback from cortical cells back to both relay cells and interneurons in the dLGN. Despite four decades of experimental and theoretical studies, the functional role of this feedback is still debated. Here we use a firing-rate model, the extended difference-of-Gaussians (eDOG) model, to explore cortical feedback effects on visual responses of dLGN relay cells. For this model the responses are found by direct evaluation of two- or three-dimensional integrals allowing for fast and comprehensive studies of putative effects of different candidate organizations of the cortical feedback. Our analysis identifies a special mixed configuration of excitatory and inhibitory cortical feedback which seems to best account for available experimental data. This configuration consists of (i) a slow (long-delay) and spatially widespread inhibitory feedback, combined with (ii) a fast (short-delayed) and spatially narrow excitatory feedback, where (iii) the excitatory/inhibitory ON-ON connections are accompanied respectively by inhibitory/excitatory OFF-ON connections, i.e. following a phase-reversed arrangement. The recent development of optogenetic and pharmacogenetic methods has provided new tools for more precise manipulation and investigation of the thalamocortical circuit, in particular for mice. Such data will expectedly allow the eDOG model to be better constrained by data from specific animal model systems than has been possible until now for cat. We have therefore made the Python tool pyLGN which allows for easy adaptation of the eDOG model to new situations.

  9. Assessment of health surveys: fitting a multidimensional graded response model.

    Depaoli, Sarah; Tiemensma, Jitske; Felt, John M

    The multidimensional graded response model, an item response theory (IRT) model, can be used to improve the assessment of surveys, even when sample sizes are restricted. Typically, health-based survey development utilizes classical statistical techniques (e.g. reliability and factor analysis). In a review of four prominent journals within the field of Health Psychology, we found that IRT-based models were used in less than 10% of the studies examining scale development or assessment. However, implementing IRT-based methods can provide more details about individual survey items, which is useful when determining the final item content of surveys. An example using a quality of life survey for Cushing's syndrome (CushingQoL) highlights the main components for implementing the multidimensional graded response model. Patients with Cushing's syndrome (n = 397) completed the CushingQoL. Results from the multidimensional graded response model supported a 2-subscale scoring process for the survey. All items were deemed as worthy contributors to the survey. The graded response model can accommodate unidimensional or multidimensional scales, be used with relatively lower sample sizes, and is implemented in free software (example code provided in online Appendix). Use of this model can help to improve the quality of health-based scales being developed within the Health Sciences.

  10. Corporate Social Responsibility Agreements Model for Community ...

    Corporate Social Responsibility Agreements Model for Community ... their host communities with concomitant adverse effect on mining operations. ... sustainable community development an integral part of the mining business. This paper presents the evolutionary strategic models, with differing principles and action plans, ...

  11. Modeling individuals’ cognitive and affective responses in spatial learning behavior

    Han, Q.; Arentze, T.A.; Timmermans, H.J.P.; Janssens, D.; Wets, G.; Lo, H.P.; Leung, Stephen C.H.; Tan, Susanna M.L.

    2008-01-01

    Activity-based analysis has slowly shifted gear from analysis of daily activity patterns to analysis and modeling of dynamic activity-travel patterns. In this paper, we describe a dynamic model that is concerned with simulating cognitive and affective responses in spatial learning behavior for a

  12. Modeling metabolic response to changes of enzyme amount in ...

    Based on the work of Hynne et al. (2001), in an in silico model of glycolysis, Saccharomyces cerevisiae is established by introducing an enzyme amount multiple factor (.) into the kinetic equations. The model is aimed to predict the metabolic response to the change of enzyme amount. With the help of .α, the amounts of ...

  13. Model Based Targeting of IL-6-Induced Inflammatory Responses in Cultured Primary Hepatocytes to Improve Application of the JAK Inhibitor Ruxolitinib

    Svantje Sobotta

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available IL-6 is a central mediator of the immediate induction of hepatic acute phase proteins (APP in the liver during infection and after injury, but increased IL-6 activity has been associated with multiple pathological conditions. In hepatocytes, IL-6 activates JAK1-STAT3 signaling that induces the negative feedback regulator SOCS3 and expression of APPs. While different inhibitors of IL-6-induced JAK1-STAT3-signaling have been developed, understanding their precise impact on signaling dynamics requires a systems biology approach. Here we present a mathematical model of IL-6-induced JAK1-STAT3 signaling that quantitatively links physiological IL-6 concentrations to the dynamics of IL-6-induced signal transduction and expression of target genes in hepatocytes. The mathematical model consists of coupled ordinary differential equations (ODE and the model parameters were estimated by a maximum likelihood approach, whereas identifiability of the dynamic model parameters was ensured by the Profile Likelihood. Using model simulations coupled with experimental validation we could optimize the long-term impact of the JAK-inhibitor Ruxolitinib, a therapeutic compound that is quickly metabolized. Model-predicted doses and timing of treatments helps to improve the reduction of inflammatory APP gene expression in primary mouse hepatocytes close to levels observed during regenerative conditions. The concept of improved efficacy of the inhibitor through multiple treatments at optimized time intervals was confirmed in primary human hepatocytes. Thus, combining quantitative data generation with mathematical modeling suggests that repetitive treatment with Ruxolitinib is required to effectively target excessive inflammatory responses without exceeding doses recommended by the clinical guidelines.

  14. Model Based Targeting of IL-6-Induced Inflammatory Responses in Cultured Primary Hepatocytes to Improve Application of the JAK Inhibitor Ruxolitinib.

    Sobotta, Svantje; Raue, Andreas; Huang, Xiaoyun; Vanlier, Joep; Jünger, Anja; Bohl, Sebastian; Albrecht, Ute; Hahnel, Maximilian J; Wolf, Stephanie; Mueller, Nikola S; D'Alessandro, Lorenza A; Mueller-Bohl, Stephanie; Boehm, Martin E; Lucarelli, Philippe; Bonefas, Sandra; Damm, Georg; Seehofer, Daniel; Lehmann, Wolf D; Rose-John, Stefan; van der Hoeven, Frank; Gretz, Norbert; Theis, Fabian J; Ehlting, Christian; Bode, Johannes G; Timmer, Jens; Schilling, Marcel; Klingmüller, Ursula

    2017-01-01

    IL-6 is a central mediator of the immediate induction of hepatic acute phase proteins (APP) in the liver during infection and after injury, but increased IL-6 activity has been associated with multiple pathological conditions. In hepatocytes, IL-6 activates JAK1-STAT3 signaling that induces the negative feedback regulator SOCS3 and expression of APPs. While different inhibitors of IL-6-induced JAK1-STAT3-signaling have been developed, understanding their precise impact on signaling dynamics requires a systems biology approach. Here we present a mathematical model of IL-6-induced JAK1-STAT3 signaling that quantitatively links physiological IL-6 concentrations to the dynamics of IL-6-induced signal transduction and expression of target genes in hepatocytes. The mathematical model consists of coupled ordinary differential equations (ODE) and the model parameters were estimated by a maximum likelihood approach, whereas identifiability of the dynamic model parameters was ensured by the Profile Likelihood. Using model simulations coupled with experimental validation we could optimize the long-term impact of the JAK-inhibitor Ruxolitinib, a therapeutic compound that is quickly metabolized. Model-predicted doses and timing of treatments helps to improve the reduction of inflammatory APP gene expression in primary mouse hepatocytes close to levels observed during regenerative conditions. The concept of improved efficacy of the inhibitor through multiple treatments at optimized time intervals was confirmed in primary human hepatocytes. Thus, combining quantitative data generation with mathematical modeling suggests that repetitive treatment with Ruxolitinib is required to effectively target excessive inflammatory responses without exceeding doses recommended by the clinical guidelines.

  15. Fitting Diffusion Item Response Theory Models for Responses and Response Times Using the R Package diffIRT

    Dylan Molenaar

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available In the psychometric literature, item response theory models have been proposed that explicitly take the decision process underlying the responses of subjects to psychometric test items into account. Application of these models is however hampered by the absence of general and flexible software to fit these models. In this paper, we present diffIRT, an R package that can be used to fit item response theory models that are based on a diffusion process. We discuss parameter estimation and model fit assessment, show the viability of the package in a simulation study, and illustrate the use of the package with two datasets pertaining to extraversion and mental rotation. In addition, we illustrate how the package can be used to fit the traditional diffusion model (as it has been originally developed in experimental psychology to data.

  16. Seismic Response Analysis and Design of Structure with Base Isolation

    Rosko, Peter

    2010-01-01

    The paper reports the study on seismic response and energy distribution of a multi-story civil structure. The nonlinear analysis used the 2003 Bam earthquake acceleration record as the excitation input to the structural model. The displacement response was analyzed in time domain and in frequency domain. The displacement and its derivatives result energy components. The energy distribution in each story provides useful information for the structural upgrade with help of added devices. The objective is the structural displacement response minimization. The application of the structural seismic response research is presented in base-isolation example.

  17. A response-modeling alternative to surrogate models for support in computational analyses

    Rutherford, Brian

    2006-01-01

    Often, the objectives in a computational analysis involve characterization of system performance based on some function of the computed response. In general, this characterization includes (at least) an estimate or prediction for some performance measure and an estimate of the associated uncertainty. Surrogate models can be used to approximate the response in regions where simulations were not performed. For most surrogate modeling approaches, however (1) estimates are based on smoothing of available data and (2) uncertainty in the response is specified in a point-wise (in the input space) fashion. These aspects of the surrogate model construction might limit their capabilities. One alternative is to construct a probability measure, G(r), for the computer response, r, based on available data. This 'response-modeling' approach will permit probability estimation for an arbitrary event, E(r), based on the computer response. In this general setting, event probabilities can be computed: prob(E)=∫ r I(E(r))dG(r) where I is the indicator function. Furthermore, one can use G(r) to calculate an induced distribution on a performance measure, pm. For prediction problems where the performance measure is a scalar, its distribution F pm is determined by: F pm (z)=∫ r I(pm(r)≤z)dG(r). We introduce response models for scalar computer output and then generalize the approach to more complicated responses that utilize multiple response models

  18. Single toxin dose-response models revisited

    Demidenko, Eugene, E-mail: eugened@dartmouth.edu [Department of Biomedical Data Science, Geisel School of Medicine at Dartmouth, Hanover, NH03756 (United States); Glaholt, SP, E-mail: sglaholt@indiana.edu [Indiana University, School of Public & Environmental Affairs, Bloomington, IN47405 (United States); Department of Biological Sciences, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH03755 (United States); Kyker-Snowman, E, E-mail: ek2002@wildcats.unh.edu [Department of Natural Resources and the Environment, University of New Hampshire, Durham, NH03824 (United States); Shaw, JR, E-mail: joeshaw@indiana.edu [Indiana University, School of Public & Environmental Affairs, Bloomington, IN47405 (United States); Chen, CY, E-mail: Celia.Y.Chen@dartmouth.edu [Department of Biological Sciences, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH03755 (United States)

    2017-01-01

    The goal of this paper is to offer a rigorous analysis of the sigmoid shape single toxin dose-response relationship. The toxin efficacy function is introduced and four special points, including maximum toxin efficacy and inflection points, on the dose-response curve are defined. The special points define three phases of the toxin effect on mortality: (1) toxin concentrations smaller than the first inflection point or (2) larger then the second inflection point imply low mortality rate, and (3) concentrations between the first and the second inflection points imply high mortality rate. Probabilistic interpretation and mathematical analysis for each of the four models, Hill, logit, probit, and Weibull is provided. Two general model extensions are introduced: (1) the multi-target hit model that accounts for the existence of several vital receptors affected by the toxin, and (2) model with a nonzero mortality at zero concentration to account for natural mortality. Special attention is given to statistical estimation in the framework of the generalized linear model with the binomial dependent variable as the mortality count in each experiment, contrary to the widespread nonlinear regression treating the mortality rate as continuous variable. The models are illustrated using standard EPA Daphnia acute (48 h) toxicity tests with mortality as a function of NiCl or CuSO{sub 4} toxin. - Highlights: • The paper offers a rigorous study of a sigmoid dose-response relationship. • The concentration with highest mortality rate is rigorously defined. • A table with four special points for five morality curves is presented. • Two new sigmoid dose-response models have been introduced. • The generalized linear model is advocated for estimation of sigmoid dose-response relationship.

  19. Agent-Based Modelling of Agricultural Water Abstraction in Response to Climate, Policy, and Demand Changes: Results from East Anglia, UK

    Swinscoe, T. H. A.; Knoeri, C.; Fleskens, L.; Barrett, J.

    2014-12-01

    Freshwater is a vital natural resource for multiple needs, such as drinking water for the public, industrial processes, hydropower for energy companies, and irrigation for agriculture. In the UK, crop production is the largest in East Anglia, while at the same time the region is also the driest, with average annual rainfall between 560 and 720 mm (1971 to 2000). Many water catchments of East Anglia are reported as over licensed or over abstracted. Therefore, freshwater available for agricultural irrigation abstraction in this region is becoming both increasingly scarce due to competing demands, and increasingly variable and uncertain due to climate and policy changes. It is vital for water users and policy makers to understand how these factors will affect individual abstractors and water resource management at the system level. We present first results of an Agent-based Model that captures the complexity of this system as individual abstractors interact, learn and adapt to these internal and external changes. The purpose of this model is to simulate what patterns of water resource management emerge on the system level based on local interactions, adaptations and behaviours, and what policies lead to a sustainable water resource management system. The model is based on an irrigation abstractor typology derived from a survey in the study area, to capture individual behavioural intentions under a range of water availability scenarios, in addition to farm attributes, and demographics. Regional climate change scenarios, current and new abstraction licence reforms by the UK regulator, such as water trading and water shares, and estimated demand increases from other sectors were used as additional input data. Findings from the integrated model provide new understanding of the patterns of water resource management likely to emerge at the system level.

  20. Promoting Culturally Responsive Standards-Based Teaching

    Saifer, Steffen; Barton, Rhonda

    2007-01-01

    Culturally responsive standards-based (CRSB) teaching can help bring diverse school communities together and make learning meaningful. Unlike multicultural education--which is an important way to incorporate the world's cultural and ethnic diversity into lessons--CRSB teaching draws on the experiences, understanding, views, concepts, and ways of…

  1. Diagnostics for Linear Models With Functional Responses

    Xu, Hongquan; Shen, Qing

    2005-01-01

    Linear models where the response is a function and the predictors are vectors are useful in analyzing data from designed experiments and other situations with functional observations. Residual analysis and diagnostics are considered for such models. Studentized residuals are defined and their properties are studied. Chi-square quantile-quantile plots are proposed to check the assumption of Gaussian error process and outliers. Jackknife residuals and an associated test are proposed to det...

  2. Online Statistical Modeling (Regression Analysis) for Independent Responses

    Made Tirta, I.; Anggraeni, Dian; Pandutama, Martinus

    2017-06-01

    Regression analysis (statistical analmodelling) are among statistical methods which are frequently needed in analyzing quantitative data, especially to model relationship between response and explanatory variables. Nowadays, statistical models have been developed into various directions to model various type and complex relationship of data. Rich varieties of advanced and recent statistical modelling are mostly available on open source software (one of them is R). However, these advanced statistical modelling, are not very friendly to novice R users, since they are based on programming script or command line interface. Our research aims to developed web interface (based on R and shiny), so that most recent and advanced statistical modelling are readily available, accessible and applicable on web. We have previously made interface in the form of e-tutorial for several modern and advanced statistical modelling on R especially for independent responses (including linear models/LM, generalized linier models/GLM, generalized additive model/GAM and generalized additive model for location scale and shape/GAMLSS). In this research we unified them in the form of data analysis, including model using Computer Intensive Statistics (Bootstrap and Markov Chain Monte Carlo/ MCMC). All are readily accessible on our online Virtual Statistics Laboratory. The web (interface) make the statistical modeling becomes easier to apply and easier to compare them in order to find the most appropriate model for the data.

  3. Sustainable Development in China’s Coastal Area: Based on the Driver-Pressure-State-Welfare-Response Framework and the Data Envelopment Analysis Model

    Song Wang

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The economic development of China’s coastal areas is being constrained by resources and the environment, with sustainable development being the key to solving these problems. The data envelopment analysis (DEA model is widely used to assess sustainable development. However, indicators used in the DEA model are not selected in a scientific and comprehensive manner, which may lead to unrepresentative results. Here, we use the driver-pressure-state-welfare-response (DPSWR framework to select more scientific and comprehensive indicators for a more accurate analysis of efficiency in China’s coastal area. The results show that the efficiencies of most provinces and cities in China’s coastal area have a stable trend. In the time dimension, efficiency was rising before 2008, after which it decreased. In the spatial dimension, China’s coastal provinces and cities are divided into three categories: high efficiency, low efficiency, and greater changes in efficiency. By combining DPSWR and DEA, we produce reliable values for measuring efficiency, with the benefit of avoiding the incomplete selection of DEA indicators.

  4. Mesoscale Modelling of the Response of Aluminas

    Bourne, N. K.

    2006-01-01

    The response of polycrystalline alumina to shock is not well addressed. There are several operating mechanisms that only hypothesized which results in models which are empirical. A similar state of affairs in reactive flow modelling led to the development of mesoscale representations of the flow to illuminate operating mechanisms. In this spirit, a similar effort is undergone for a polycrystalline alumina. Simulations are conducted to observe operating mechanisms at the micron scale. A method is then developed to extend the simulations to meet response at the continuum level where measurements are made. The approach is validated by comparison with continuum experiments. The method and results are presented, and some of the operating mechanisms are illuminated by the observed response

  5. Lawyer Proliferation and the Social Responsibility Model.

    Wines, William A.

    1989-01-01

    Drawing on the model of social responsibility that colleges of business have been teaching, the boom in lawyer education is examined. It is argued that law schools are irresponsible in overselling the benefits of law school graduation, creating a surplus of lawyers whose abilities could be used as well elsewhere. (MSE)

  6. Supporting the operational use of process based hydrological models and NASA Earth Observations for use in land management and post-fire remediation through a Rapid Response Erosion Database (RRED).

    Miller, M. E.; Elliot, W.; Billmire, M.; Robichaud, P. R.; Banach, D. M.

    2017-12-01

    We have built a Rapid Response Erosion Database (RRED, http://rred.mtri.org/rred/) for the continental United States to allow land managers to access properly formatted spatial model inputs for the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP). Spatially-explicit process-based models like WEPP require spatial inputs that include digital elevation models (DEMs), soil, climate and land cover. The online database delivers either a 10m or 30m USGS DEM, land cover derived from the Landfire project, and soil data derived from SSURGO and STATSGO datasets. The spatial layers are projected into UTM coordinates and pre-registered for modeling. WEPP soil parameter files are also created along with linkage files to match both spatial land cover and soils data with the appropriate WEPP parameter files. Our goal is to make process-based models more accessible by preparing spatial inputs ahead of time allowing modelers to focus on addressing scenarios of concern. The database provides comprehensive support for post-fire hydrological modeling by allowing users to upload spatial soil burn severity maps, and within moments returns spatial model inputs. Rapid response is critical following natural disasters. After moderate and high severity wildfires, flooding, erosion, and debris flows are a major threat to life, property and municipal water supplies. Mitigation measures must be rapidly implemented if they are to be effective, but they are expensive and cannot be applied everywhere. Fire, runoff, and erosion risks also are highly heterogeneous in space, creating an urgent need for rapid, spatially-explicit assessment. The database has been used to help assess and plan remediation on over a dozen wildfires in the Western US. Future plans include expanding spatial coverage, improving model input data and supporting additional models. Our goal is to facilitate the use of the best possible datasets and models to support the conservation of soil and water.

  7. Modelling of demand response and market power

    Kristoffersen, B.B.; Donslund, B.; Boerre Eriksen, P.

    2004-01-01

    Demand-side flexibility and demand response to high prices are prerequisites for the proper functioning of the Nordic power market. If the consumers are unwilling to respond to high prices, the market may fail the clearing, and this may result in unwanted forced demand disconnections. Being the TSO of Western Denmark, Eltra is responsible of both security of supply and the design of the power market within its area. On this basis, Eltra has developed a new mathematical model tool for analysing the Nordic wholesale market. The model is named MARS (MARket Simulation). The model is able to handle hydropower and thermal production, nuclear power and wind power. Production, demand and exchanges modelled on an hourly basis are new important features of the model. The model uses the same principles as Nord Pool (The Nordic Power Exchange), including the division of the Nordic countries into price areas. On the demand side, price elasticity is taken into account and described by a Cobb-Douglas function. Apart from simulating perfect competition markets, particular attention has been given to modelling imperfect market conditions, i.e. exercise of market power on the supply side. Market power is simulated by using game theory, including the Nash equilibrium concept. The paper gives a short description of the MARS model. Besides, focus is on the application of the model in order to illustrate the importance of demand response in the Nordic market. Simulations with different values of demand elasticity are compared. Calculations are carried out for perfect competition and for the situation in which market power is exercised by the large power producers in the Nordic countries (oligopoly). (au)

  8. A Generalized QMRA Beta-Poisson Dose-Response Model.

    Xie, Gang; Roiko, Anne; Stratton, Helen; Lemckert, Charles; Dunn, Peter K; Mengersen, Kerrie

    2016-10-01

    Quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) is widely accepted for characterizing the microbial risks associated with food, water, and wastewater. Single-hit dose-response models are the most commonly used dose-response models in QMRA. Denoting PI(d) as the probability of infection at a given mean dose d, a three-parameter generalized QMRA beta-Poisson dose-response model, PI(d|α,β,r*), is proposed in which the minimum number of organisms required for causing infection, K min , is not fixed, but a random variable following a geometric distribution with parameter 0Poisson model, PI(d|α,β), is a special case of the generalized model with K min = 1 (which implies r*=1). The generalized beta-Poisson model is based on a conceptual model with greater detail in the dose-response mechanism. Since a maximum likelihood solution is not easily available, a likelihood-free approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) algorithm is employed for parameter estimation. By fitting the generalized model to four experimental data sets from the literature, this study reveals that the posterior median r* estimates produced fall short of meeting the required condition of r* = 1 for single-hit assumption. However, three out of four data sets fitted by the generalized models could not achieve an improvement in goodness of fit. These combined results imply that, at least in some cases, a single-hit assumption for characterizing the dose-response process may not be appropriate, but that the more complex models may be difficult to support especially if the sample size is small. The three-parameter generalized model provides a possibility to investigate the mechanism of a dose-response process in greater detail than is possible under a single-hit model. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

  9. Assessing ecosystem response to multiple disturbances and climate change in South Africa using ground- and satellite-based measurements and model

    Kutsch, W. L.; Falge, E. M.; Brümmer, C.; Mukwashi, K.; Schmullius, C.; Hüttich, C.; Odipo, V.; Scholes, R. J.; Mudau, A.; Midgley, G.; Stevens, N.; Hickler, T.; Scheiter, S.; Martens, C.; Twine, W.; Iiyambo, T.; Bradshaw, K.; Lück, W.; Lenfers, U.; Thiel-Clemen, T.; du Toit, J.

    2015-12-01

    Sub-Saharan Africa currently experiences rapidly growing human population, intrinsically tied to substantial changes in land use on shrubland, savanna and mixed woodland ecosystems due to over-exploitation. Significant conversions driving degradation, affecting fire frequency and water availability, and fueling climate change are expected to increase in the immediate future. However, measured data of greenhouse gas emissions as affected by land use change are scarce to entirely lacking from this region. The project 'Adaptive Resilience of Southern African Ecosystems' (ARS AfricaE) conducts research and develops scenarios of ecosystem development under climate change, for management support in conservation or for planning rural area development. This will be achieved by (1) creation of a network of research clusters (paired sites with natural and altered vegetation) along an aridity gradient in South Africa for ground-based micrometeorological in-situ measurements of energy and matter fluxes, (2) linking biogeochemical functions with ecosystem structure, and eco-physiological properties, (3) description of ecosystem disturbance (and recovery) in terms of ecosystem function such as carbon balance components and water use efficiency, (4) set-up of individual-based models to predict ecosystem dynamics under (post) disturbance managements, (5) combination with long-term landscape dynamic information derived from remote sensing and aerial photography, and (6) development of sustainable management strategies for disturbed ecosystems and land use change. Emphasis is given on validation (by a suite of field measurements) of estimates obtained from eddy covariance, model approaches and satellite derivations.

  10. Modelling household responses to energy efficiency interventions ...

    2010-11-01

    Nov 1, 2010 ... to interventions aimed at reducing energy consumption (specifically the use of .... 4 A system dynamics model of electricity consumption ...... to base comparisons on overly detailed quantitative predictions of behaviour.

  11. A motivational model for environmentally responsible behavior.

    Tabernero, Carmen; Hernández, Bernardo

    2012-07-01

    This paper presents a study examining whether self-efficacy and intrinsic motivation are related to environmentally responsible behavior (ERB). The study analysed past environmental behavior, self-regulatory mechanisms (self-efficacy, satisfaction, goals), and intrinsic and extrinsic motivation in relation to ERBs in a sample of 156 university students. Results show that all the motivational variables studied are linked to ERB. The effects of self-efficacy on ERB are mediated by the intrinsic motivation responses of the participants. A theoretical model was created by means of path analysis, revealing the power of motivational variables to predict ERB. Structural equation modeling was used to test and fit the research model. The role of motivational variables is discussed with a view to creating adequate learning contexts and experiences to generate interest and new sensations in which self-efficacy and affective reactions play an important role.

  12. Using ground- and satellite-based measurements and models to quantify response to multiple disturbances and climate change in South African semi-arid ecosystems

    Falge, Eva; Brümmer, Christian; Schmullius, Christiane; Scholes, Robert; Twine, Wayne; Mudau, Azwitamisi; Midgley, Guy; Hickler, Thomas; Bradshaw, Karen; Lück, Wolfgang; Thiel-Clemen, Thomas; du Toit, Justin; Sankaran, Vaith; Kutsch, Werner

    2016-04-01

    Sub-Saharan Africa currently experiences significant changes in shrubland, savanna and mixed woodland ecosystems driving degradation, affecting fire frequency and water availability, and eventually fueling climate change. The project 'Adaptive Resilience of Southern African Ecosystems' (ARS AfricaE) conducts research and develops scenarios of ecosystem development under climate change, for management support in conservation or for planning rural area development. For a network of research clusters along an aridity gradient in South Africa, we measure greenhouse gas exchange, ecosystem structure and eco-physiological properties as affected by land use change at paired sites with natural and altered vegetation. We set up dynamic vegetation models and individual-based models to predict ecosystem dynamics under (post) disturbance managements. We monitor vegetation amount and heterogeneity using remotely sensed images and aerial photography over several decades to examine time series of land cover change. Finally, we investigate livelihood strategies with focus on carbon balance components to develop sustainable management strategies for disturbed ecosystems and land use change. Emphasis is given on validation of estimates obtained from eddy covariance, model approaches and satellite derivations. We envision our methodological approach on a network of research clusters a valuable means to investigate potential linkages to concepts of adaptive resilience.

  13. Earthquake response analysis of a base isolated building

    Mazda, T.; Shiojiri, H.; Sawada, Y.; Harada, O.; Kawai, N.; Ontsuka, S.

    1989-01-01

    Recently, the seismic isolation has become one of the popular methods in the design of important structures or equipments against the earthquakes. However, it is desired to accumulate the demonstration data on reliability of seismically isolated structures and to establish the analysis methods of those structures. Based on the above recognition, the vibration tests of a base isolated building were carried out in Tsukuba Science City. After that, many earthquake records have been obtained at the building. In order to examine the validity of numerical models, earthquake response analyses have been executed by using both lumped mass model, and finite element model

  14. Model-Based Reasoning

    Ifenthaler, Dirk; Seel, Norbert M.

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, there will be a particular focus on mental models and their application to inductive reasoning within the realm of instruction. A basic assumption of this study is the observation that the construction of mental models and related reasoning is a slowly developing capability of cognitive systems that emerges effectively with proper…

  15. Prediction error variance and expected response to selection, when selection is based on the best predictor – for Gaussian and threshold characters, traits following a Poisson mixed model and survival traits

    Jensen Just

    2002-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract In this paper, we consider selection based on the best predictor of animal additive genetic values in Gaussian linear mixed models, threshold models, Poisson mixed models, and log normal frailty models for survival data (including models with time-dependent covariates with associated fixed or random effects. In the different models, expressions are given (when these can be found – otherwise unbiased estimates are given for prediction error variance, accuracy of selection and expected response to selection on the additive genetic scale and on the observed scale. The expressions given for non Gaussian traits are generalisations of the well-known formulas for Gaussian traits – and reflect, for Poisson mixed models and frailty models for survival data, the hierarchal structure of the models. In general the ratio of the additive genetic variance to the total variance in the Gaussian part of the model (heritability on the normally distributed level of the model or a generalised version of heritability plays a central role in these formulas.

  16. Ingestion risks of metals in groundwater based on TIN model and dose-response assessment - A case study in the Xiangjiang watershed, central-south China

    Chai, Liyuan; Wang, Zhenxing; Wang, Yunyan; Yang, Zhihui; Wang, Haiying; Wu, Xie

    2010-01-01

    Groundwater samples were collected in the Xiangjiang watershed in China from 2002 to 2008 to analyze concentrations of arsenic, cadmium, chromium, copper, iron, lead, mercury, manganese, and zinc. Spatial and seasonal trends of metal concentrations were then discussed. Combined with geostatistics, an ingestion risk assessment of metals in groundwater was performed using the dose-response assessment method and the triangulated irregular network (TIN) model. Arsenic concentration in groundwater had a larger variation from year to year, while the variations of other metal concentrations were minor. Meanwhile, As concentrations in groundwater over the period of 2002-2004 were significantly higher than that over the period of 2005-2007, indicating the improvement of groundwater quality within the later year. The hazard index (HI) in 2002 was also significantly higher than that in 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2008. Moreover, more than 80% of the study area recorded an HI of more than 1.0 for children, suggesting that some people will experience deleterious health effects from drinking groundwater in the Xiangjiang watershed. Arsenic and manganese were the largest contributors to human health risks (HHRs). This study highlights the value of long-term health risk evaluation and the importance of geographic information system (GIS) technologies in the assessment of watershed-scale human health risk.

  17. Biological Bases for Radiation Adaptive Responses in the Lung

    Scott, Bobby R. [Lovelace Biomedical and Environmental Research Inst., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Lin, Yong [Lovelace Biomedical and Environmental Research Inst., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Wilder, Julie [Lovelace Biomedical and Environmental Research Inst., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Belinsky, Steven [Lovelace Biomedical and Environmental Research Inst., Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2015-03-01

    Our main research objective was to determine the biological bases for low-dose, radiation-induced adaptive responses in the lung, and use the knowledge gained to produce an improved risk model for radiation-induced lung cancer that accounts for activated natural protection, genetic influences, and the role of epigenetic regulation (epiregulation). Currently, low-dose radiation risk assessment is based on the linear-no-threshold hypothesis, which now is known to be unsupported by a large volume of data.

  18. Model-based Software Engineering

    Kindler, Ekkart

    2010-01-01

    The vision of model-based software engineering is to make models the main focus of software development and to automatically generate software from these models. Part of that idea works already today. But, there are still difficulties when it comes to behaviour. Actually, there is no lack in models...

  19. Smart Demand Response Based on Smart Homes

    Jingang Lai

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Smart homes (SHs are crucial parts for demand response management (DRM of smart grid (SG. The aim of SHs based demand response (DR is to provide a flexible two-way energy feedback whilst (or shortly after the consumption occurs. It can potentially persuade end-users to achieve energy saving and cooperate with the electricity producer or supplier to maintain balance between the electricity supply and demand through the method of peak shaving and valley filling. However, existing solutions are challenged by the lack of consideration between the wide application of fiber power cable to the home (FPCTTH and related users’ behaviors. Based on the new network infrastructure, the design and development of smart DR systems based on SHs are related with not only functionalities as security, convenience, and comfort, but also energy savings. A new multirouting protocol based on Kruskal’s algorithm is designed for the reliability and safety of the SHs distribution network. The benefits of FPCTTH-based SHs are summarized at the end of the paper.

  20. Principles of models based engineering

    Dolin, R.M.; Hefele, J.

    1996-11-01

    This report describes a Models Based Engineering (MBE) philosophy and implementation strategy that has been developed at Los Alamos National Laboratory`s Center for Advanced Engineering Technology. A major theme in this discussion is that models based engineering is an information management technology enabling the development of information driven engineering. Unlike other information management technologies, models based engineering encompasses the breadth of engineering information, from design intent through product definition to consumer application.

  1. Risk based modelling

    Chapman, O.J.V.; Baker, A.E.

    1993-01-01

    Risk based analysis is a tool becoming available to both engineers and managers to aid decision making concerning plant matters such as In-Service Inspection (ISI). In order to develop a risk based method, some form of Structural Reliability Risk Assessment (SRRA) needs to be performed to provide a probability of failure ranking for all sites around the plant. A Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) can then be carried out to combine these possible events with the capability of plant safety systems and procedures, to establish the consequences of failure for the sites. In this way the probability of failures are converted into a risk based ranking which can be used to assist the process of deciding which sites should be included in an ISI programme. This paper reviews the technique and typical results of a risk based ranking assessment carried out for nuclear power plant pipework. (author)

  2. Modeling of Dynamic Responses in Building Insulation

    Anna Antonyová

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available In this research a measurement systemwas developedfor monitoring humidity and temperature in the cavity between the wall and the insulating material in the building envelope. This new technology does not disturb the insulating material during testing. The measurement system can also be applied to insulation fixed ten or twenty years earlier and sufficiently reveals the quality of the insulation. A mathematical model is proposed to characterize the dynamic responses in the cavity between the wall and the building insulation as influenced by weather conditions.These dynamic responses are manifested as a delay of both humidity and temperature changes in the cavity when compared with the changes in the ambient surrounding of the building. The process is then modeled through numerical methods and statistical analysis of the experimental data obtained using the new system of measurement.

  3. Modeling response variation for radiometric calorimeters

    Mayer, R.L. II.

    1986-01-01

    Radiometric calorimeters are widely used in the DOE complex for accountability measurements of plutonium and tritium. Proper characterization of response variation for these instruments is, therefore, vital for accurate assessment of measurement control as well as for propagation of error calculations. This is not difficult for instruments used to measure items within a narrow range of power values; however, when a single instrument is used to measure items over a wide range of power values, improper estimates of uncertainty can result since traditional error models for radiometric calorimeters assume that uncertainty is not a function of sample power. This paper describes methods which can be used to accurately estimate random response variation for calorimeters used to measure items over a wide range of sample powers. The model is applicable to the two most common modes of calorimeter operation: heater replacement and servo control. 5 refs., 4 figs., 1 tab

  4. Predicting Footbridge Response using Stochastic Load Models

    Pedersen, Lars; Frier, Christian

    2013-01-01

    Walking parameters such as step frequency, pedestrian mass, dynamic load factor, etc. are basically stochastic, although it is quite common to adapt deterministic models for these parameters. The present paper considers a stochastic approach to modeling the action of pedestrians, but when doing so...... decisions need to be made in terms of statistical distributions of walking parameters and in terms of the parameters describing the statistical distributions. The paper explores how sensitive computations of bridge response are to some of the decisions to be made in this respect. This is useful...

  5. A model for predicting lung cancer response to therapy

    Seibert, Rebecca M.; Ramsey, Chester R.; Hines, J. Wesley; Kupelian, Patrick A.; Langen, Katja M.; Meeks, Sanford L.; Scaperoth, Daniel D.

    2007-01-01

    Purpose: Volumetric computed tomography (CT) images acquired by image-guided radiation therapy (IGRT) systems can be used to measure tumor response over the course of treatment. Predictive adaptive therapy is a novel treatment technique that uses volumetric IGRT data to actively predict the future tumor response to therapy during the first few weeks of IGRT treatment. The goal of this study was to develop and test a model for predicting lung tumor response during IGRT treatment using serial megavoltage CT (MVCT). Methods and Materials: Tumor responses were measured for 20 lung cancer lesions in 17 patients that were imaged and treated with helical tomotherapy with doses ranging from 2.0 to 2.5 Gy per fraction. Five patients were treated with concurrent chemotherapy, and 1 patient was treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy. Tumor response to treatment was retrospectively measured by contouring 480 serial MVCT images acquired before treatment. A nonparametric, memory-based locally weight regression (LWR) model was developed for predicting tumor response using the retrospective tumor response data. This model predicts future tumor volumes and the associated confidence intervals based on limited observations during the first 2 weeks of treatment. The predictive accuracy of the model was tested using a leave-one-out cross-validation technique with the measured tumor responses. Results: The predictive algorithm was used to compare predicted verse-measured tumor volume response for all 20 lesions. The average error for the predictions of the final tumor volume was 12%, with the true volumes always bounded by the 95% confidence interval. The greatest model uncertainty occurred near the middle of the course of treatment, in which the tumor response relationships were more complex, the model has less information, and the predictors were more varied. The optimal days for measuring the tumor response on the MVCT images were on elapsed Days 1, 2, 5, 9, 11, 12, 17, and 18 during

  6. Reliability evaluation of microgrid considering incentive-based demand response

    Huang, Ting-Cheng; Zhang, Yong-Jun

    2017-07-01

    Incentive-based demand response (IBDR) can guide customers to adjust their behaviour of electricity and curtail load actively. Meanwhile, distributed generation (DG) and energy storage system (ESS) can provide time for the implementation of IBDR. The paper focus on the reliability evaluation of microgrid considering IBDR. Firstly, the mechanism of IBDR and its impact on power supply reliability are analysed. Secondly, the IBDR dispatch model considering customer’s comprehensive assessment and the customer response model are developed. Thirdly, the reliability evaluation method considering IBDR based on Monte Carlo simulation is proposed. Finally, the validity of the above models and method is studied through numerical tests on modified RBTS Bus6 test system. Simulation results demonstrated that IBDR can improve the reliability of microgrid.

  7. Equipment response spectra for base-isolated shear beam structures

    Ahmadi, G.; Su, L.

    1992-01-01

    Equipment response spectra in base-isolated structure under seismic ground excitations are studied. The equipment is treated as a single-degree-of-freedom system attached to a nonuniform elastic beam structural model. Several leading base isolation systems, including the laminated rubber bearing, the resilient-friction base isolator with and without a sliding upper plate, and the EDF system are considered. Deflection and acceleration response spectra for the equipment and the shear beam structure subject to a sinusoidal and the accelerogram of the N00W component of El Centro 1940 earthquake are evaluated. Primary-secondary interaction effects are included in the analysis. Several numerical parametric studies are carried out and the effectiveness of different base isolation systems in protecting the nonstructural components is studied. It is shown that use of properly designed base isolation systems provides considerable protection for secondary systems, as well as, the structure against severe seismic loadings. (orig.)

  8. Model-based consensus

    Boumans, M.; Martini, C.; Boumans, M.

    2014-01-01

    The aim of the rational-consensus method is to produce "rational consensus", that is, "mathematical aggregation", by weighing the performance of each expert on the basis of his or her knowledge and ability to judge relevant uncertainties. The measurement of the performance of the experts is based on

  9. Model-based consensus

    Boumans, Marcel

    2014-01-01

    The aim of the rational-consensus method is to produce “rational consensus”, that is, “mathematical aggregation”, by weighing the performance of each expert on the basis of his or her knowledge and ability to judge relevant uncertainties. The measurement of the performance of the experts is based on

  10. Thermodynamical aspects of modeling the mechanical response of granular materials

    Elata, D.

    1995-01-01

    In many applications in rock physics, the material is treated as a continuum. By supplementing the related conservation laws with constitutive equations such as stress-strain relations, a well-posed problem can be formulated and solved. The stress-strain relations may be based on a combination of experimental data and a phenomenological or micromechanical model. If the model is physically sound and its parameters have a physical meaning, it can serve to predict the stress response of the material to unmeasured deformations, predict the stress response of other materials, and perhaps predict other categories of the mechanical response such as failure, permeability, and conductivity. However, it is essential that the model be consistent with all conservation laws and consistent with the second law of thermodynamics. Specifically, some models of the mechanical response of granular materials proposed in literature, are based on intergranular contact force-displacement laws that violate the second law of thermodynamics by permitting energy generation at no cost. This diminishes the usefulness of these models as it invalidates their predictive capabilities. [This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. DOE by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract No. W-7405-ENG-48.

  11. In vitro assessment of skin irritation potential of surfactant-based formulations by using a 3-D skin reconstructed tissue model and cytokine response.

    Walters, Russel M; Gandolfi, Lisa; Mack, M Catherine; Fevola, Michael; Martin, Katharine; Hamilton, Mathew T; Hilberer, Allison; Barnes, Nicole; Wilt, Nathan; Nash, Jennifer R; Raabe, Hans A; Costin, Gertrude-Emilia

    2016-12-01

    The personal care industry is focused on developing safe, more efficacious, and increasingly milder products, that are routinely undergoing preclinical and clinical testing before becoming available for consumer use on skin. In vitro systems based on skin reconstructed equivalents are now established for the preclinical assessment of product irritation potential and as alternative testing methods to the classic Draize rabbit skin irritation test. We have used the 3-D EpiDerm™ model system to evaluate tissue viability and primary cytokine interleukin-1α release as a way to evaluate the potential dermal irritation of 224 non-ionic, amphoteric and/or anionic surfactant-containing formulations, or individual raw materials. As part of our testing programme, two representative benchmark materials with known clinical skin irritation potential were qualified through repeated testing, for use as references for the skin irritation evaluation of formulations containing new surfactant ingredients. We have established a correlation between the in vitro screening approach and clinical testing, and are continually expanding our database to enhance this correlation. This testing programme integrates the efforts of global manufacturers of personal care products that focus on the development of increasingly milder formulations to be applied to the skin, without the use of animal testing. 2016 FRAME.

  12. Activity-based DEVS modeling

    Alshareef, Abdurrahman; Sarjoughian, Hessam S.; Zarrin, Bahram

    2018-01-01

    architecture and the UML concepts. In this paper, we further this work by grounding Activity-based DEVS modeling and developing a fully-fledged modeling engine to demonstrate applicability. We also detail the relevant aspects of the created metamodel in terms of modeling and simulation. A significant number......Use of model-driven approaches has been increasing to significantly benefit the process of building complex systems. Recently, an approach for specifying model behavior using UML activities has been devised to support the creation of DEVS models in a disciplined manner based on the model driven...... of the artifacts of the UML 2.5 activities and actions, from the vantage point of DEVS behavioral modeling, is covered in details. Their semantics are discussed to the extent of time-accurate requirements for simulation. We characterize them in correspondence with the specification of the atomic model behavior. We...

  13. A Multiagent Based Model for Tactical Planning

    2002-10-01

    Pub. Co. 1985. [10] Castillo, J.M. Aproximación mediante procedimientos de Inteligencia Artificial al planeamiento táctico. Doctoral Thesis...been developed under the same conceptual model and using similar Artificial Intelligence Tools. We use four different stimulus/response agents in...The conceptual model is built on base of the Agents theory. To implement the different agents we have used Artificial Intelligence techniques such

  14. Explanatory models for ecological response surfaces

    Jager, H.I.; Overton, W.S.

    1991-01-01

    Understanding the spatial organization of ecological systems is a fundamental part of ecosystem study. While discovering the causal relationships of this organization is an important goal, our purpose of spatial description on a regional scale is best met by use of explanatory variables that are somewhat removed from the mechanistic causal level. Regional level understanding is best obtained from explanatory variables that reflect spatial gradients at the regional scale and from categorical variables that describe the discrete constituents of (statistical) populations, such as lakes. In this paper, we use a regression model to predict lake acid neutralizing capacity (ANC) based on environmental predictor variables over a large region. These predictions are used to produce model-based population estimates. Two key features of our modeling approach are that is honors the spatial context and the design of the sample data. The spatial context of the data are brought into the analysis of model residuals through the interpretation of residual maps and semivariograms. The sampling design is taken into account by including stratification variables from the design in the model. This ensures that the model applies to a real population of lakes (the target population), rather than whatever hypothetical population the sample is a random sample of

  15. Considering Affective Responses towards Environments for Enhancing Location Based Services

    Huang, H.; Gartner, G.; Klettner, S.; Schmidt, M.

    2014-04-01

    A number of studies in the field of environmental psychology show that humans perceive and evaluate their surroundings affectively. Some places are experienced as unsafe, while some others as attractive and interesting. Experiences from daily life show that many of our daily behaviours and decision-making are often influenced by this kind of affective responses towards environments. Location based services (LBS) are often designed to assist and support people's behaviours and decision-making in space. In order to provide services with high usefulness (usability and utility), LBS should consider these kinds of affective responses towards environments. This paper reports on the results of a research project, which studies how people's affective responses towards environments can be modelled and acquired, as well as how LBS can benefit by considering these affective responses. As one of the most popular LBS applications, mobile pedestrian navigation systems are used as an example for illustration.

  16. Event-Based Conceptual Modeling

    Bækgaard, Lars

    The paper demonstrates that a wide variety of event-based modeling approaches are based on special cases of the same general event concept, and that the general event concept can be used to unify the otherwise unrelated fields of information modeling and process modeling. A set of event......-based modeling approaches are analyzed and the results are used to formulate a general event concept that can be used for unifying the seemingly unrelated event concepts. Events are characterized as short-duration processes that have participants, consequences, and properties, and that may be modeled in terms...... of information structures. The general event concept can be used to guide systems analysis and design and to improve modeling approaches....

  17. Theory of thermoluminescence gamma dose response: The unified interaction model

    Horowitz, Y.S.

    2001-01-01

    We describe the development of a comprehensive theory of thermoluminescence (TL) dose response, the unified interaction model (UNIM). The UNIM is based on both radiation absorption stage and recombination stage mechanisms and can describe dose response for heavy charged particles (in the framework of the extended track interaction model - ETIM) as well as for isotropically ionising gamma rays and electrons (in the framework of the TC/LC geminate recombination model) in a unified and self-consistent conceptual and mathematical formalism. A theory of optical absorption dose response is also incorporated in the UNIM to describe the radiation absorption stage. The UNIM is applied to the dose response supralinearity characteristics of LiF:Mg,Ti and is especially and uniquely successful in explaining the ionisation density dependence of the supralinearity of composite peak 5 in TLD-100. The UNIM is demonstrated to be capable of explaining either qualitatively or quantitatively all of the major features of TL dose response with many of the variable parameters of the model strongly constrained by ancilliary optical absorption and sensitisation measurements

  18. Response of subassembly model with internals

    Kennedy, J.M.; Belytschko, T.

    1977-01-01

    Analytical tools have been developed and validated by controlled sets of experiments to understand the response of an accident and/or single subassembly in an LMFBR reasonably well. They have been subjected to a variety of loadings and boundary environments. Some large subassembly cluster experiments have been performed, however little analytical work has accompanied them because of the lack of suitable analytical tools. Reported are analytical approaches to: (1) development of more sophisiticated models for the subassembly internals, that is, the fuel pins and coolant; (2) development of models for representing three dimensional effects in subassemblies adjacent to the accident subassembly. These analytical developments will provide feasible capabilities for doing economical three-dimensional analysis not previously available

  19. Modeling of Cardiovascular Response to Weightlessness

    Sharp, M. Keith

    1999-01-01

    pressure and, to a limited extent, in extravascular and pedcardial hydrostatic pressure were investigated. A complete hydraulic model of the cardiovascular system was built and flown aboard the NASA KC-135 and a computer model was developed and tested in simulated microgravity. Results obtained with these models have confirmed that a simple lack of hydrostatic pressure within an artificial ventricle causes a decrease in stroke volume. When combined with the acute increase in ventricular pressure associated with the elimination of hydrostatic pressure within the vasculature and the resultant cephalad fluid shift with the models in the upright position, however, stroke volume increased in the models. Imposition of a decreased pedcardial pressure in the computer model and in a simplified hydraulic model increased stroke volume. Physiologic regional fluid shifting was also demonstrated by the models. The unifying parameter characterizing of cardiac response was diastolic ventricular transmural pressure (DVDELTAP) The elimination of intraventricular hydrostatic pressure in O-G decreased DVDELTAP stroke volume, while the elimination of intravascular hydrostatic pressure increased DVDELTAP and stroke volume in the upright posture, but reduced DVDELTAP and stroke volume in the launch posture. The release of gravity on the chest wall and its associated influence on intrathoracic pressure, simulated by a drop in extraventricular pressure4, increased DVDELTAP ans stroke volume.

  20. Response of subassembly model with internals

    Kennedy, J.M.; Belytschko, T.

    1977-01-01

    For the purpose of predicting the structural response in such accident environments, a program STRAW has been developed. This is a finite element program which can treat the structure-fluid system consisting of the coolant and the subassembly walls. Both material nonlinearities due to elastic-plastic response and geometric nonlinearities due to large displacements can be treated. The energy source can be represented either by a pressure-time history or an equation of state. Because of the lack of any simplifying symmetry in the geometry of the subassembly the program uses a quasi-three dimensional model. The cross section of the accident hexcan and the adjacent hexcan are modelled by a two-dimensional finite element mesh which represents the hexcan walls by flexural element and the internals by two-dimensional continuum elements. This mesh is coupled to a series of one-dimensional elements which represent the axial flow of the coolant and the longitudinal stiffness of the fuel pins and hexcan. The latter is of importance in the adjacent hexcan, for its lateral displacement is resisted entirely by this flexural behavior and its inertia. The adequacy of such quasi-three dimensional models has been examined by comparing the STRAW results against almost complete three-dimensonal analysis performed with the REXCAT program. In this program, the accident hexcan is represented in a true three-dimensional sense by plate-shell elements, whereas the internals are represented as axisymmetric. These comparisons indicate that the quasi-three-dimensional approach employed in STRAW is valid for a large range of pressure time histories; the fidelity of this model suffers primarily when pressure reaches a peak over a very short time, such as 5-10 microseconds

  1. Life in the Mosaic: Predicting changes in estuarine nursery production for juvenile fishes in response to sea-level rise with a landscape-based habitat production model

    Identification of critical habitat in estuarine fish nursery areas is an important conservation and management objective, yet response to changes in critical habitat is both equally important and harder to predict. Habitat can be viewed as a mosaic of both temporally variable en...

  2. HMM-based Trust Model

    ElSalamouny, Ehab; Nielsen, Mogens; Sassone, Vladimiro

    2010-01-01

    Probabilistic trust has been adopted as an approach to taking security sensitive decisions in modern global computing environments. Existing probabilistic trust frameworks either assume fixed behaviour for the principals or incorporate the notion of ‘decay' as an ad hoc approach to cope...... with their dynamic behaviour. Using Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) for both modelling and approximating the behaviours of principals, we introduce the HMM-based trust model as a new approach to evaluating trust in systems exhibiting dynamic behaviour. This model avoids the fixed behaviour assumption which is considered...... the major limitation of existing Beta trust model. We show the consistency of the HMM-based trust model and contrast it against the well known Beta trust model with the decay principle in terms of the estimation precision....

  3. Ovine model for studying pulmonary immune responses

    Joel, D.D.; Chanana, A.D.

    1984-01-01

    Anatomical features of the sheep lung make it an excellent model for studying pulmonary immunity. Four specific lung segments were identified which drain exclusively to three separate lymph nodes. One of these segments, the dorsal basal segment of the right lung, is drained by the caudal mediastinal lymph node (CMLN). Cannulation of the efferent lymph duct of the CMLN along with highly localized intrabronchial instillation of antigen provides a functional unit with which to study factors involved in development of pulmonary immune responses. Following intrabronchial immunization there was an increased output of lymphoblasts and specific antibody-forming cells in efferent CMLN lymph. Continuous divergence of efferent lymph eliminated the serum antibody response but did not totally eliminate the appearance of specific antibody in fluid obtained by bronchoalveolar lavage. In these studies localized immunization of the right cranial lobe served as a control. Efferent lymphoblasts produced in response to intrabronchial antigen were labeled with 125 I-iododeoxyuridine and their migrational patterns and tissue distribution compared to lymphoblasts obtained from the thoracic duct. The results indicated that pulmonary immunoblasts tend to relocate in lung tissue and reappear with a higher specific activity in pulmonary lymph than in thoracic duct lymph. The reverse was observed with labeled intestinal lymphoblasts. 35 references, 2 figures, 3 tables

  4. Ovine model for studying pulmonary immune responses

    Joel, D.D.; Chanana, A.D.

    1984-11-25

    Anatomical features of the sheep lung make it an excellent model for studying pulmonary immunity. Four specific lung segments were identified which drain exclusively to three separate lymph nodes. One of these segments, the dorsal basal segment of the right lung, is drained by the caudal mediastinal lymph node (CMLN). Cannulation of the efferent lymph duct of the CMLN along with highly localized intrabronchial instillation of antigen provides a functional unit with which to study factors involved in development of pulmonary immune responses. Following intrabronchial immunization there was an increased output of lymphoblasts and specific antibody-forming cells in efferent CMLN lymph. Continuous divergence of efferent lymph eliminated the serum antibody response but did not totally eliminate the appearance of specific antibody in fluid obtained by bronchoalveolar lavage. In these studies localized immunization of the right cranial lobe served as a control. Efferent lymphoblasts produced in response to intrabronchial antigen were labeled with /sup 125/I-iododeoxyuridine and their migrational patterns and tissue distribution compared to lymphoblasts obtained from the thoracic duct. The results indicated that pulmonary immunoblasts tend to relocate in lung tissue and reappear with a higher specific activity in pulmonary lymph than in thoracic duct lymph. The reverse was observed with labeled intestinal lymphoblasts. 35 references, 2 figures, 3 tables.

  5. Benchmarking nuclear models for Gamow–Teller response

    Litvinova, E.; Brown, B.A.; Fang, D.-L.; Marketin, T.; Zegers, R.G.T.

    2014-01-01

    A comparative study of the nuclear Gamow–Teller response (GTR) within conceptually different state-of-the-art approaches is presented. Three nuclear microscopic models are considered: (i) the recently developed charge-exchange relativistic time blocking approximation (RTBA) based on the covariant density functional theory, (ii) the shell model (SM) with an extended “jj77” model space and (iii) the non-relativistic quasiparticle random-phase approximation (QRPA) with a Brueckner G-matrix effective interaction. We study the physics cases where two or all three of these models can be applied. The Gamow–Teller response functions are calculated for 208 Pb, 132 Sn and 78 Ni within both RTBA and QRPA. The strengths obtained for 208 Pb are compared to data that enable a firm model benchmarking. For the nucleus 132 Sn, also SM calculations are performed within the model space truncated at the level of a particle–hole (ph) coupled to vibration configurations. This allows a consistent comparison to the RTBA where ph⊗phonon coupling is responsible for the spreading width and considerable quenching of the GTR. Differences between the models and perspectives of their future developments are discussed.

  6. Benchmarking nuclear models for Gamow–Teller response

    Litvinova, E., E-mail: elena.litvinova@wmich.edu [Department of Physics, Western Michigan University, Kalamazoo, MI 49008-5252 (United States); National Superconducting Cyclotron Laboratory, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48824-1321 (United States); Brown, B.A. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48824-1321 (United States); National Superconducting Cyclotron Laboratory, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48824-1321 (United States); Fang, D.-L. [National Superconducting Cyclotron Laboratory, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48824-1321 (United States); Joint Institute for Nuclear Astrophysics, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48824-1321 (United States); Marketin, T. [Physics Department, Faculty of Science, University of Zagreb (Croatia); Zegers, R.G.T. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48824-1321 (United States); National Superconducting Cyclotron Laboratory, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48824-1321 (United States); Joint Institute for Nuclear Astrophysics, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48824-1321 (United States)

    2014-03-07

    A comparative study of the nuclear Gamow–Teller response (GTR) within conceptually different state-of-the-art approaches is presented. Three nuclear microscopic models are considered: (i) the recently developed charge-exchange relativistic time blocking approximation (RTBA) based on the covariant density functional theory, (ii) the shell model (SM) with an extended “jj77” model space and (iii) the non-relativistic quasiparticle random-phase approximation (QRPA) with a Brueckner G-matrix effective interaction. We study the physics cases where two or all three of these models can be applied. The Gamow–Teller response functions are calculated for {sup 208}Pb, {sup 132}Sn and {sup 78}Ni within both RTBA and QRPA. The strengths obtained for {sup 208}Pb are compared to data that enable a firm model benchmarking. For the nucleus {sup 132}Sn, also SM calculations are performed within the model space truncated at the level of a particle–hole (ph) coupled to vibration configurations. This allows a consistent comparison to the RTBA where ph⊗phonon coupling is responsible for the spreading width and considerable quenching of the GTR. Differences between the models and perspectives of their future developments are discussed.

  7. Predicting response to incretin-based therapy

    Agrawal N

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Sanjay Kalra1, Bharti Kalra2, Rakesh Sahay3, Navneet Agrawal41Department of Endocrinology, 2Department of Diabetology, Bharti Hospital, Karnal, India; 3Department of Endocrinology, Osmania Medical College, Hyderabad, India; 4Department of Medicine, GR Medical College, Gwalior, IndiaAbstract: There are two important incretin hormones, glucose-dependent insulin tropic polypeptide (GIP and glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1. The biological activities of GLP-1 include stimulation of glucose-dependent insulin secretion and insulin biosynthesis, inhibition of glucagon secretion and gastric emptying, and inhibition of food intake. GLP-1 appears to have a number of additional effects in the gastrointestinal tract and central nervous system. Incretin based therapy includes GLP-1 receptor agonists like human GLP-1 analogs (liraglutide and exendin-4 based molecules (exenatide, as well as DPP-4 inhibitors like sitagliptin, vildagliptin and saxagliptin. Most of the published studies showed a significant reduction in HbA1c using these drugs. A critical analysis of reported data shows that the response rate in terms of target achievers of these drugs is average. One of the first actions identified for GLP-1 was the glucose-dependent stimulation of insulin secretion from islet cell lines. Following the detection of GLP-1 receptors on islet beta cells, a large body of evidence has accumulated illustrating that GLP-1 exerts multiple actions on various signaling pathways and gene products in the ß cell. GLP-1 controls glucose homeostasis through well-defined actions on the islet ß cell via stimulation of insulin secretion and preservation and expansion of ß cell mass. In summary, there are several factors determining the response rate to incretin therapy. Currently minimal clinical data is available to make a conclusion. Key factors appear to be duration of diabetes, obesity, presence of autonomic neuropathy, resting energy expenditure, plasma glucagon levels and

  8. Simulation-based Strategies for Smart Demand Response

    Ines Leobner

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Demand Response can be seen as one effective way to harmonize demand and supply in order to achieve high self-coverage of energy consumption by means of renewable energy sources. This paper presents two different simulation-based concepts to integrate demand-response strategies into energy management systems in the customer domain of the Smart Grid. The first approach is a Model Predictive Control of the heating and cooling system of a low-energy office building. The second concept aims at industrial Demand Side Management by integrating energy use optimization into industrial automation systems. Both approaches are targeted at day-ahead planning. Furthermore, insights gained into the implications of the concepts onto the design of the model, simulation and optimization will be discussed. While both approaches share a similar architecture, different modelling and simulation approaches were required by the use cases.

  9. Modeling Guru: Knowledge Base for NASA Modelers

    Seablom, M. S.; Wojcik, G. S.; van Aartsen, B. H.

    2009-05-01

    Modeling Guru is an on-line knowledge-sharing resource for anyone involved with or interested in NASA's scientific models or High End Computing (HEC) systems. Developed and maintained by the NASA's Software Integration and Visualization Office (SIVO) and the NASA Center for Computational Sciences (NCCS), Modeling Guru's combined forums and knowledge base for research and collaboration is becoming a repository for the accumulated expertise of NASA's scientific modeling and HEC communities. All NASA modelers and associates are encouraged to participate and provide knowledge about the models and systems so that other users may benefit from their experience. Modeling Guru is divided into a hierarchy of communities, each with its own set forums and knowledge base documents. Current modeling communities include those for space science, land and atmospheric dynamics, atmospheric chemistry, and oceanography. In addition, there are communities focused on NCCS systems, HEC tools and libraries, and programming and scripting languages. Anyone may view most of the content on Modeling Guru (available at http://modelingguru.nasa.gov/), but you must log in to post messages and subscribe to community postings. The site offers a full range of "Web 2.0" features, including discussion forums, "wiki" document generation, document uploading, RSS feeds, search tools, blogs, email notification, and "breadcrumb" links. A discussion (a.k.a. forum "thread") is used to post comments, solicit feedback, or ask questions. If marked as a question, SIVO will monitor the thread, and normally respond within a day. Discussions can include embedded images, tables, and formatting through the use of the Rich Text Editor. Also, the user can add "Tags" to their thread to facilitate later searches. The "knowledge base" is comprised of documents that are used to capture and share expertise with others. The default "wiki" document lets users edit within the browser so others can easily collaborate on the

  10. Using Response Times to Assess Learning Progress: A Joint Model for Responses and Response Times

    Wang, Shiyu; Zhang, Susu; Douglas, Jeff; Culpepper, Steven

    2018-01-01

    Analyzing students' growth remains an important topic in educational research. Most recently, Diagnostic Classification Models (DCMs) have been used to track skill acquisition in a longitudinal fashion, with the purpose to provide an estimate of students' learning trajectories in terms of the change of fine-grained skills overtime. Response time…

  11. Modeling and prioritizing demand response programs in power markets

    Aalami, H.A.; Moghaddam, M. Parsa; Yousefi, G.R.

    2010-01-01

    One of the responsibilities of power market regulator is setting rules for selecting and prioritizing demand response (DR) programs. There are many different alternatives of DR programs for improving load profile characteristics and achieving customers' satisfaction. Regulator should find the optimal solution which reflects the perspectives of each DR stakeholder. Multi Attribute Decision Making (MADM) is a proper method for handling such optimization problems. In this paper, an extended responsive load economic model is developed. The model is based on price elasticity and customer benefit function. Prioritizing of DR programs can be realized by means of Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) method. Considerations of ISO/utility/customer regarding the weighting of attributes are encountered by entropy method. An Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) is used for selecting the most effective DR program. Numerical studies are conducted on the load curve of the Iranian power grid in 2007. (author)

  12. Grid Integration of Aggregated Demand Response, Part 2: Modeling Demand Response in a Production Cost Model

    Hummon, Marissa [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Palchak, David [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Denholm, Paul [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Jorgenson, Jennie [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Olsen, Daniel J. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Kiliccote, Sila [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Matson, Nance [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Sohn, Michael [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Rose, Cody [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Dudley, Junqiao [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Goli, Sasank [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Ma, Ookie [U.S. Dept. of Energy, Washington, DC (United States)

    2013-12-01

    This report is one of a series stemming from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Demand Response and Energy Storage Integration Study. This study is a multi-national-laboratory effort to assess the potential value of demand response (DR) and energy storage to electricity systems with different penetration levels of variable renewable resources and to improve our understanding of associatedmarkets and institutions. This report implements DR resources in the commercial production cost model PLEXOS.

  13. A Model-Based Assessment of the Physiological Potential of Vegetation Response to Environmental Changes and Implications for the North America Carbon Sink

    Post, W. M.; King, A. W.; Wullschleger, S. D.

    2001-12-01

    We used the Global Terrestrial Ecosystem Carbon (GTEC V2.0) model to analyze North American terrestrial carbon storage and exchange with the atmosphere over the period 1930 to present. In this model the carbon dynamics of each vegetated land cell is described by a mechanistic soil-plant-atmosphere model of ecosystem carbon cycling and exchange. Net ecosystem production (NEP), net carbon sequestration, is the difference between canopy photosynthesis and ecosystem (plant plus decomposer) respiration. Representations of C3 and C4 photosynthesis are coupled to a description of the dependence of stomatal conductance on assimilation rate, temperature, and moisture to form a ``big-leaf'' canopy photosynthesis model. Maintenance respiration is a function of tissue nitrogen concentration and temperature, while growth respiration is proportional to the change in biomass. Canopy photosynthesis and maintenance respiration are calculated hourly; carbon allocation, growth, and growth respiration are calculated daily. Carbon in dead organic matter is partitioned as in the Rothamsted model with litter inputs assigned to decomposable and resistant plant material compartments. The model is thus capable of responding to interactions among climate, rising atmospheric CO2 concentration, soil moisture, and solar radiation. This detailed physiological model is considerably more sensitive to rising atmospheric CO2 concentration than most biogeochemical terrestrial ecosystem models. The average net C sequestration rate calculated with this model for the 1980's and early 1990's is less than 0.6 Pg C y-1 for North America. Nearly all of this is calculated to be sequestered by woody biomass growth. This result suggests that ecosystem physiology might account for 30% of the approximately 2 Pg C y-1 North American carbon sink inferred from regional inversion studies, with the remainder a consequence of other factors including forest regrowth following clearing or other disturbance.

  14. Corporate Social Responsibility And Islamic Business Organizations: A Proposed Model

    Rusnah Muhamad

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available The issue of corporate social responsibility (CSR has been of growing concern among business communities in recent years. Various corporate leaders maintain that business is considered to contribute fully to the society if it is effi cient, profi table and socially responsible. Islam is considered as addin (a way of life, thus, providing comprehensive guidelines in every aspects of the believers’ life. It is the aim of this paper to propose an Islamic model of corporate social responsibility based on human relationships with the God (hablun min’Allah; with other fellow human being (hablun min’an-nas and with the environment.Keywords : Corporate Social Responsibility, Islamic Business Organization

  15. Prediction Models for Dynamic Demand Response

    Aman, Saima; Frincu, Marc; Chelmis, Charalampos; Noor, Muhammad; Simmhan, Yogesh; Prasanna, Viktor K.

    2015-11-02

    As Smart Grids move closer to dynamic curtailment programs, Demand Response (DR) events will become necessary not only on fixed time intervals and weekdays predetermined by static policies, but also during changing decision periods and weekends to react to real-time demand signals. Unique challenges arise in this context vis-a-vis demand prediction and curtailment estimation and the transformation of such tasks into an automated, efficient dynamic demand response (D2R) process. While existing work has concentrated on increasing the accuracy of prediction models for DR, there is a lack of studies for prediction models for D2R, which we address in this paper. Our first contribution is the formal definition of D2R, and the description of its challenges and requirements. Our second contribution is a feasibility analysis of very-short-term prediction of electricity consumption for D2R over a diverse, large-scale dataset that includes both small residential customers and large buildings. Our third, and major contribution is a set of insights into the predictability of electricity consumption in the context of D2R. Specifically, we focus on prediction models that can operate at a very small data granularity (here 15-min intervals), for both weekdays and weekends - all conditions that characterize scenarios for D2R. We find that short-term time series and simple averaging models used by Independent Service Operators and utilities achieve superior prediction accuracy. We also observe that workdays are more predictable than weekends and holiday. Also, smaller customers have large variation in consumption and are less predictable than larger buildings. Key implications of our findings are that better models are required for small customers and for non-workdays, both of which are critical for D2R. Also, prediction models require just few days’ worth of data indicating that small amounts of

  16. Structure-Based Turbulence Model

    Reynolds, W

    2000-01-01

    .... Maire carried out this work as part of his Phi) research. During the award period we began to explore ways to simplify the structure-based modeling so that it could be used in repetitive engineering calculations...

  17. Photon iso-effective dose for cancer treatment with mixed field radiation based on dose-response assessment from human and an animal model: clinical application to boron neutron capture therapy for head and neck cancer.

    González, S J; Pozzi, E C C; Monti Hughes, A; Provenzano, L; Koivunoro, H; Carando, D G; Thorp, S I; Casal, M R; Bortolussi, S; Trivillin, V A; Garabalino, M A; Curotto, P; Heber, E M; Santa Cruz, G A; Kankaanranta, L; Joensuu, H; Schwint, A E

    2017-10-03

    Boron neutron capture therapy (BNCT) is a treatment modality that combines different radiation qualities. Since the severity of biological damage following irradiation depends on the radiation type, a quantity different from absorbed dose is required to explain the effects observed in the clinical BNCT in terms of outcome compared with conventional photon radiation therapy. A new approach for calculating photon iso-effective doses in BNCT was introduced previously. The present work extends this model to include information from dose-response assessments in animal models and humans. Parameters of the model were determined for tumour and precancerous tissue using dose-response curves obtained from BNCT and photon studies performed in the hamster cheek pouch in vivo models of oral cancer and/or pre-cancer, and from head and neck cancer radiotherapy data with photons. To this end, suitable expressions of the dose-limiting Normal Tissue Complication and Tumour Control Probabilities for the reference radiation and for the mixed field BNCT radiation were developed. Pearson's correlation coefficients and p-values showed that TCP and NTCP models agreed with experimental data (with r  >  0.87 and p-values  >0.57). The photon iso-effective dose model was applied retrospectively to evaluate the dosimetry in tumours and mucosa for head and neck cancer patients treated with BNCT in Finland. Photon iso-effective doses in tumour were lower than those obtained with the standard RBE-weighted model (between 10% to 45%). The results also suggested that the probabilities of tumour control derived from photon iso-effective doses are more adequate to explain the clinical responses than those obtained with the RBE-weighted values. The dosimetry in the mucosa revealed that the photon iso-effective doses were about 30% to 50% higher than the corresponding RBE-weighted values. While the RBE-weighted doses are unable to predict mucosa toxicity, predictions based on the proposed

  18. Photon iso-effective dose for cancer treatment with mixed field radiation based on dose-response assessment from human and an animal model: clinical application to boron neutron capture therapy for head and neck cancer

    González, S. J.; Pozzi, E. C. C.; Monti Hughes, A.; Provenzano, L.; Koivunoro, H.; Carando, D. G.; Thorp, S. I.; Casal, M. R.; Bortolussi, S.; Trivillin, V. A.; Garabalino, M. A.; Curotto, P.; Heber, E. M.; Santa Cruz, G. A.; Kankaanranta, L.; Joensuu, H.; Schwint, A. E.

    2017-10-01

    Boron neutron capture therapy (BNCT) is a treatment modality that combines different radiation qualities. Since the severity of biological damage following irradiation depends on the radiation type, a quantity different from absorbed dose is required to explain the effects observed in the clinical BNCT in terms of outcome compared with conventional photon radiation therapy. A new approach for calculating photon iso-effective doses in BNCT was introduced previously. The present work extends this model to include information from dose-response assessments in animal models and humans. Parameters of the model were determined for tumour and precancerous tissue using dose-response curves obtained from BNCT and photon studies performed in the hamster cheek pouch in vivo models of oral cancer and/or pre-cancer, and from head and neck cancer radiotherapy data with photons. To this end, suitable expressions of the dose-limiting Normal Tissue Complication and Tumour Control Probabilities for the reference radiation and for the mixed field BNCT radiation were developed. Pearson’s correlation coefficients and p-values showed that TCP and NTCP models agreed with experimental data (with r  >  0.87 and p-values  >0.57). The photon iso-effective dose model was applied retrospectively to evaluate the dosimetry in tumours and mucosa for head and neck cancer patients treated with BNCT in Finland. Photon iso-effective doses in tumour were lower than those obtained with the standard RBE-weighted model (between 10% to 45%). The results also suggested that the probabilities of tumour control derived from photon iso-effective doses are more adequate to explain the clinical responses than those obtained with the RBE-weighted values. The dosimetry in the mucosa revealed that the photon iso-effective doses were about 30% to 50% higher than the corresponding RBE-weighted values. While the RBE-weighted doses are unable to predict mucosa toxicity, predictions based on the proposed

  19. The Value of Response Times in Item Response Modeling

    Molenaar, Dylan

    2015-01-01

    A new and very interesting approach to the analysis of responses and response times is proposed by Goldhammer (this issue). In his approach, differences in the speed-ability compromise within respondents are considered to confound the differences in ability between respondents. These confounding effects of speed on the inferences about ability can…

  20. Ethical Competencies and the Organizational Competency ‘Responsible University Social Innovation’: looking at new ways of understanding universities and the competency-based education model in the context of significant social changes in Latin America

    Javier Villar Olaeta

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Ethical competencies are included in all competency-based education models and are considered essential for the professional preparation of students, especially in terms of their professional conduct and workplace preparedness. As such, the Tuning Academy, along with incorporating ethical competencies in its group of generic competencies, also considers the organizational competency Responsible University Social Innovation (RUSI as part of its Tuning ALFA II Latin América project. This competency, in the area of organizational character, addresses innovation in the context of social responsibility, which it assumes each university should have, in terms of ethical responsibility toward the members of a community. This concept incorporates the equal relationship between the university’s internal community and civil society. By means of interviews with experts in the areas of service-learning, social responsibility, and ethical civil and professional education from the University of Deusto and the Zerbikas Foundation, this article discusses the connection and implementation of both generic ethical competencies and the RUSI organizational competency in higher education in order to respond to the new challenges to professional training in today’s world, all of which ultimately assumes a change in universities’ understandings of themselves as institutions and the role of higher education in general.

  1. Event-Based Conceptual Modeling

    Bækgaard, Lars

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of the paper is to obtain insight into and provide practical advice for event-based conceptual modeling. We analyze a set of event concepts and use the results to formulate a conceptual event model that is used to identify guidelines for creation of dynamic process models and static...... information models. We characterize events as short-duration processes that have participants, consequences, and properties, and that may be modeled in terms of information structures. The conceptual event model is used to characterize a variety of event concepts and it is used to illustrate how events can...... be used to integrate dynamic modeling of processes and static modeling of information structures. The results are unique in the sense that no other general event concept has been used to unify a similar broad variety of seemingly incompatible event concepts. The general event concept can be used...

  2. Entropy model of dissipative structure on corporate social responsibility

    Li, Zuozhi; Jiang, Jie

    2017-06-01

    Enterprise is prompted to fulfill the social responsibility requirement by the internal and external environment. In this complex system, some studies suggest that firms have an orderly or chaotic entropy exchange behavior. Based on the theory of dissipative structure, this paper constructs the entropy index system of corporate social responsibility(CSR) and explores the dissipative structure of CSR through Brusselator model criterion. Picking up listed companies of the equipment manufacturing, the research shows that CSR has positive incentive to negative entropy and promotes the stability of dissipative structure. In short, the dissipative structure of CSR has a positive impact on the interests of stakeholders and corporate social images.

  3. Computer Based Modelling and Simulation

    Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 6; Issue 3. Computer Based Modelling and Simulation - Modelling Deterministic Systems. N K Srinivasan. General Article Volume 6 Issue 3 March 2001 pp 46-54. Fulltext. Click here to view fulltext PDF. Permanent link:

  4. Stochastic Measurement Models for Quantifying Lymphocyte Responses Using Flow Cytometry

    Kan, Andrey; Pavlyshyn, Damian; Markham, John F.; Dowling, Mark R.; Heinzel, Susanne; Zhou, Jie H. S.; Marchingo, Julia M.; Hodgkin, Philip D.

    2016-01-01

    Adaptive immune responses are complex dynamic processes whereby B and T cells undergo division and differentiation triggered by pathogenic stimuli. Deregulation of the response can lead to severe consequences for the host organism ranging from immune deficiencies to autoimmunity. Tracking cell division and differentiation by flow cytometry using fluorescent probes is a major method for measuring progression of lymphocyte responses, both in vitro and in vivo. In turn, mathematical modeling of cell numbers derived from such measurements has led to significant biological discoveries, and plays an increasingly important role in lymphocyte research. Fitting an appropriate parameterized model to such data is the goal of these studies but significant challenges are presented by the variability in measurements. This variation results from the sum of experimental noise and intrinsic probabilistic differences in cells and is difficult to characterize analytically. Current model fitting methods adopt different simplifying assumptions to describe the distribution of such measurements and these assumptions have not been tested directly. To help inform the choice and application of appropriate methods of model fitting to such data we studied the errors associated with flow cytometry measurements from a wide variety of experiments. We found that the mean and variance of the noise were related by a power law with an exponent between 1.3 and 1.8 for different datasets. This violated the assumptions inherent to commonly used least squares, linear variance scaling and log-transformation based methods. As a result of these findings we propose a new measurement model that we justify both theoretically, from the maximum entropy standpoint, and empirically using collected data. Our evaluation suggests that the new model can be reliably used for model fitting across a variety of conditions. Our work provides a foundation for modeling measurements in flow cytometry experiments thus

  5. Bayes Factor Covariance Testing in Item Response Models.

    Fox, Jean-Paul; Mulder, Joris; Sinharay, Sandip

    2017-12-01

    Two marginal one-parameter item response theory models are introduced, by integrating out the latent variable or random item parameter. It is shown that both marginal response models are multivariate (probit) models with a compound symmetry covariance structure. Several common hypotheses concerning the underlying covariance structure are evaluated using (fractional) Bayes factor tests. The support for a unidimensional factor (i.e., assumption of local independence) and differential item functioning are evaluated by testing the covariance components. The posterior distribution of common covariance components is obtained in closed form by transforming latent responses with an orthogonal (Helmert) matrix. This posterior distribution is defined as a shifted-inverse-gamma, thereby introducing a default prior and a balanced prior distribution. Based on that, an MCMC algorithm is described to estimate all model parameters and to compute (fractional) Bayes factor tests. Simulation studies are used to show that the (fractional) Bayes factor tests have good properties for testing the underlying covariance structure of binary response data. The method is illustrated with two real data studies.

  6. Constitutive modeling of shock response of PTFE

    Brown, Eric N [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Reanyansky, Anatoly D [DSTO, AUSTRALIA; Bourne, Neil K [AWE, UK; Millett, Jeremy C F [AWE, UK

    2009-01-01

    The PTFE (polytetrafluoroethylene) material is complex and attracts attention of the shock physics researchers because it has amorphous and crystalline components. In turn, the crystalline component has four known phases with the high pressure transition to phase III. At the same time, as has been recently studied using spectrometry, the crystalline region is growing with load. Stress and velocity shock-wave profiles acquired recently with embedded gauges demonstrate feature that may be related to impedance mismatches between the regions subjected to some transitions resulting in density and modulus variations. We consider the above mentioned amorphous-to-crystalline transition and the high pressure Phase II-to-III transitions as possible candidates for the analysis. The present work utilizes a multi-phase rate sensitive model to describe shock response of the PTFE material. One-dimensional experimental shock wave profiles are compared with calculated profiles with the kinetics describing the transitions. The objective of this study is to understand the role of the various transitions in the shock response of PTFE.

  7. Model-based machine learning.

    Bishop, Christopher M

    2013-02-13

    Several decades of research in the field of machine learning have resulted in a multitude of different algorithms for solving a broad range of problems. To tackle a new application, a researcher typically tries to map their problem onto one of these existing methods, often influenced by their familiarity with specific algorithms and by the availability of corresponding software implementations. In this study, we describe an alternative methodology for applying machine learning, in which a bespoke solution is formulated for each new application. The solution is expressed through a compact modelling language, and the corresponding custom machine learning code is then generated automatically. This model-based approach offers several major advantages, including the opportunity to create highly tailored models for specific scenarios, as well as rapid prototyping and comparison of a range of alternative models. Furthermore, newcomers to the field of machine learning do not have to learn about the huge range of traditional methods, but instead can focus their attention on understanding a single modelling environment. In this study, we show how probabilistic graphical models, coupled with efficient inference algorithms, provide a very flexible foundation for model-based machine learning, and we outline a large-scale commercial application of this framework involving tens of millions of users. We also describe the concept of probabilistic programming as a powerful software environment for model-based machine learning, and we discuss a specific probabilistic programming language called Infer.NET, which has been widely used in practical applications.

  8. Proposal of a probabilistic dose-response model

    Barrachina, M.

    1997-01-01

    A biologically updated dose-response model is presented as an alternative to the linear-quadratic model currently in use for cancer risk assessment. The new model is based on the probability functions for misrepair and/or unrepair of DNA lesions, in terms of the radiation damage production rate in the cell (supposedly, a stem cell) and its repair-rate constant. The model makes use, interpreting it on the basis of misrepair probabilities, of the ''dose and dose-rate effectiveness factor'' of ICRP, and provides the way for a continuous extrapolation between the high and low dose-rate regions, ratifying the ''linear non-threshold hypothesis'' as the main option. Anyhow, the model throws some doubts about the additive property of the dose. (author)

  9. A Mathematical Model of Cardiovascular Response to Dynamic Exercise

    Magosso, E

    2001-01-01

    A mathematical model of cardiovascular response to dynamic exercise is presented, The model includes the pulsating heart, the systemic and pulmonary, circulation, a functional description of muscle...

  10. Producer’s Responsibility Concerning the Assurance and Statement of Quality for Foods with “Organic Image” based on the Model of a Romanian Company

    Magdalena Bobe

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available The responsibility of organizations to the consumer has now become a permanent concern, the principles of ethics in their activities result in attracting new customers and thus in their remaining within competition. The present study aims to highlight the importance of producers’ accountability in ensuring the quality of foodstuffs obtained through sustainable methods of production and to correctly and completely inform the consumers. The research follows the quality analysis of a product with an “organic image” addressed to the market/consumers, by testing the physicochemical and microbiological characteristics in the laboratory of the National Research and Development Institute for Food Bio- Resources in Bucharest, as well as comparing the obtained results with the values stated in the producer’s specifications; the main purpose is checking the conformity and establishing the validity of the published nutritional information and the statements regarding the product’s quality made on the printed label.

  11. TIDALLY HEATED TERRESTRIAL EXOPLANETS: VISCOELASTIC RESPONSE MODELS

    Henning, Wade G.; O'Connell, Richard J.; Sasselov, Dimitar D.

    2009-01-01

    Tidal friction in exoplanet systems, driven by orbits that allow for durable nonzero eccentricities at short heliocentric periods, can generate internal heating far in excess of the conditions observed in our own solar system. Secular perturbations or a notional 2:1 resonance between a hot Earth and hot Jupiter can be used as a baseline to consider the thermal evolution of convecting bodies subject to strong viscoelastic tidal heating. We compare results first from simple models using a fixed Quality factor and Love number, and then for three different viscoelastic rheologies: the Maxwell body, the Standard Anelastic Solid (SAS), and the Burgers body. The SAS and Burgers models are shown to alter the potential for extreme tidal heating by introducing the possibility of new equilibria and multiple response peaks. We find that tidal heating tends to exceed radionuclide heating at periods below 10-30 days, and exceed insolation only below 1-2 days. Extreme cases produce enough tidal heat to initiate global-scale partial melting, and an analysis of tidal limiting mechanisms such as advective cooling for earthlike planets is discussed. To explore long-term behaviors, we map equilibria points between convective heat loss and tidal heat input as functions of eccentricity. For the periods and magnitudes discussed, we show that tidal heating, if significant, is generally detrimental to the width of habitable zones.

  12. Coupled vertical-rocking response of base-isolated structures

    Pan, T.C.; Kelly, J.M.

    1984-01-01

    A base-isolated building can have a small horizontal eccentricity between the center of mass of the superstructure and the center of rigidity of the supporting bearings. The structure can be modeled as a rigid block with tributary masses supported on massless rubber bearings placed at a constant elevation below the center of mass. Perturbation methods are implemented to find the dynamic characteristics for both the detuned and the perfectly tuned cases. The Green's functions for the displacement response of the system are derived for the undamped and the damped conditions. The response spectrum modal superposition method is used in estimating the maximum acceleration. A simple method, accounting for the effect of closely spaced modes, is proposed for combining modal maxima and results in an approximate single-degree-of-freedom solution. This approximate solution may be used for thepreliminary design of a base-isolated structure. Numerical results for a base-isolated building subjected to the vertical component of the El Centro earthquake of 1940 were carried out for comparison with analytical results. It is shown that the effect of rocking coupling on the vertical seismic response of baseisolated structures can generally be neglected because of the combined effects of the time lag between the maximum translational and rotational responses and the influence of damping in the isolation system

  13. Response of streamflow to climate change in a sub-basin of the source region of the Yellow River based on a tank model

    P. Wu

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Though extensive researches were conducted in the source region of the Yellow River (SRYR to analyse climate change influence on streamflow, however, few researches concentrate on streamflow of the sub-basin above the Huangheyan station in the SRYR (HSRYR where a water retaining dam was built in the outlet in 1999. To improve the reservoir regulation strategies, this study analysed streamflow change of the HSRYR in a mesoscale. A tank model (TM was proposed and calibrated with monthly observation streamflow from 1991 to 1998. In the validation period, though there is a simulation deviation during the water storage and power generation period, simulated streamflow agrees favourably with observation data from 2008 to 2013. The model was further validated by two inside lakes area obtained from Landsat 5, 7, 8 datasets from 2000 to 2014, and significant correlations were found between the simulated lake outlet runoff and respective lake area. Then 21 Global Climate Models (GCM ensembled data of three emission scenarios (SRA2, SRA1B and SRB1 were downscaled and used as input to the TM to simulate the runoff change of three benchmark periods 2011–2030 (2020s, 2046–2065 (2050s, 2080–2099 (2090s, respectively. Though temperature increase dramatically, these projected results similarly indicated that streamflow shows an increase trend in the long term. Runoff increase is mainly caused by increasing precipitation and decreasing evaporation. Water resources distribution is projected to change from summer-autumn dominant to autumn winter dominant. Annual lowest runoff will occur in May caused by earlier snow melting and increasing evaporation in March. According to the obtained results, winter runoff should be artificially stored by reservoir regulation in the future to prevent zero-flow occurrent in May. This research is helpful for water resources management and provides a better understand of streamflow change caused by climate change in the

  14. Response of streamflow to climate change in a sub-basin of the source region of the Yellow River based on a tank model

    Wu, Pan; Wang, Xu-Sheng; Liang, Sihai

    2018-06-01

    Though extensive researches were conducted in the source region of the Yellow River (SRYR) to analyse climate change influence on streamflow, however, few researches concentrate on streamflow of the sub-basin above the Huangheyan station in the SRYR (HSRYR) where a water retaining dam was built in the outlet in 1999. To improve the reservoir regulation strategies, this study analysed streamflow change of the HSRYR in a mesoscale. A tank model (TM) was proposed and calibrated with monthly observation streamflow from 1991 to 1998. In the validation period, though there is a simulation deviation during the water storage and power generation period, simulated streamflow agrees favourably with observation data from 2008 to 2013. The model was further validated by two inside lakes area obtained from Landsat 5, 7, 8 datasets from 2000 to 2014, and significant correlations were found between the simulated lake outlet runoff and respective lake area. Then 21 Global Climate Models (GCM) ensembled data of three emission scenarios (SRA2, SRA1B and SRB1) were downscaled and used as input to the TM to simulate the runoff change of three benchmark periods 2011-2030 (2020s), 2046-2065 (2050s), 2080-2099 (2090s), respectively. Though temperature increase dramatically, these projected results similarly indicated that streamflow shows an increase trend in the long term. Runoff increase is mainly caused by increasing precipitation and decreasing evaporation. Water resources distribution is projected to change from summer-autumn dominant to autumn winter dominant. Annual lowest runoff will occur in May caused by earlier snow melting and increasing evaporation in March. According to the obtained results, winter runoff should be artificially stored by reservoir regulation in the future to prevent zero-flow occurrent in May. This research is helpful for water resources management and provides a better understand of streamflow change caused by climate change in the future.

  15. Cluster Based Text Classification Model

    Nizamani, Sarwat; Memon, Nasrullah; Wiil, Uffe Kock

    2011-01-01

    We propose a cluster based classification model for suspicious email detection and other text classification tasks. The text classification tasks comprise many training examples that require a complex classification model. Using clusters for classification makes the model simpler and increases...... the accuracy at the same time. The test example is classified using simpler and smaller model. The training examples in a particular cluster share the common vocabulary. At the time of clustering, we do not take into account the labels of the training examples. After the clusters have been created......, the classifier is trained on each cluster having reduced dimensionality and less number of examples. The experimental results show that the proposed model outperforms the existing classification models for the task of suspicious email detection and topic categorization on the Reuters-21578 and 20 Newsgroups...

  16. Dynamic response modelling and characterization of a vertical electrothermal actuator

    Li, Lijie; Uttamchandani, Deepak

    2009-01-01

    Mathematical modelling and characterization of the dynamic response of a microelectromechanical system (MEMS) electrothermal actuator are presented in this paper. The mathematical model is based on a second-order partial differential equation (one-dimensional heat transfer) and a second-order ordinary differential equation (mechanical dynamic equation). The simulations are implemented using the piecewise finite difference method and the Runge–Kutta algorithm. The electrothermal modelling includes thermal conduction, convective thermal loss and radiation effects. The temperature dependence of resistivity and thermal conductivity of single crystal silicon have also been taken into consideration in the electrothermal modelling. It is calculated from the simulation results that the 'cold' beam of the electrothermal actuator is not only a mechanical constraint but also a thermal response compensation structure. The 0–90% electrothermal rise times for the individual 'hot' and 'cold' beams are calculated to be 32.9 ms and 42.8 ms, respectively, while the 0–90% electrothermal rise time for the whole actuator is calculated to be 17.3 ms. Nonlinear cubic stiffness has been considered in the thermal-mechanical modelling. Dynamic performances of the device have been characterized using a laser vibrometer, and the 0–90% thermal response time of the whole structure has been measured to be 16.8 ms, which matches well with the modelling results. The displacements of the device under different driving conditions and at resonant frequency have been modelled and measured, and the results from both modelling and experiment agree reasonably well. This work provides a comprehensive understanding of the dynamic behaviour of the electrothermal actuation mechanism. The model will be useful for designing control systems for microelectrothermal actuated devices

  17. [Responses of Pinus tabulaeformis forest ecosystem in North China to climate change and elevated CO2: a simulation based on BIOME-BGC model and tree-ring data].

    He, Jun-Jie; Peng, Xing-Yuan; Chen, Zhen-Ju; Cui, Ming-Xing; Zhang, Xian-Liang; Zhou, Chang-Hong

    2012-07-01

    Based on BIOME-BGC model and tree-ring data, a modeling study was conducted to estimate the dynamic changes of the net primary productivity (NPP) of Pinus tabulaeformis forest ecosystem in North China in 1952-2008, and explore the responses of the radial growth and NPP to regional climate warming as well as the dynamics of the NPP in the future climate change scenarios. The simulation results indicated the annual NPP of the P. tabulaeformis ecosystem in 1952-2008 fluctuated from 244.12 to 645.31 g C x m(-2) x a(-1), with a mean value of 418.6 g C x m(-2) x a(-1) The mean air temperature in May-June and the precipitation from previous August to current July were the main factors limiting the radial growth of P. tabulaeformis and the NPP of P. tabulaeformis ecosystem. In the study period, both the radial growth and the NPP presented a decreasing trend due to the regional warming and drying climate condition. In the future climate scenarios, the NPP would have positive responses to the increase of air temperature, precipitation, and their combination. The elevated CO2 would benefit the increase of the NPP, and the increment would be about 16.1% due to the CO2 fertilization. At both ecosystem and regional scales, the tree-ring data would be an ideal proxy to predict the ecosystem dynamic change, and could be used to validate and calibrate the process-based ecosystem models including BIOME-BGC.

  18. Immunization With Fc-Based Recombinant Epstein–Barr Virus gp350 Elicits Potent Neutralizing Humoral Immune Response in a BALB/c Mice Model

    Bingchun Zhao

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Epstein–Barr virus (EBV was the first human virus proved to be closely associated with tumor development, such as lymphoma, nasopharyngeal carcinoma, and EBV-associated gastric carcinoma. Despite many efforts to develop prophylactic vaccines against EBV infection and diseases, no candidates have succeeded in effectively blocking EBV infection in clinical trials. Previous investigations showed that EBV gp350 plays a pivotal role in the infection of B-lymphocytes. Nevertheless, using monomeric gp350 proteins as antigens has not been effective in preventing infection. Multimeric forms of the antigen are more potently immunogenic than monomers; however, the multimerization elements used in previous constructs are not approved for human clinical trials. To prepare a much-needed EBV prophylactic vaccine that is potent, safe, and applicable, we constructed an Fc-based form of gp350 to serve as a dimeric antigen. Here, we show that the Fc-based gp350 antigen exhibits dramatically enhanced immunogenicity compared with wild-type gp350 protein. The complete or partial gp350 ectodomain was fused with the mouse IgG2a Fc domain. Fusion with the Fc domain did not impair gp350 folding, binding to a conformation-dependent neutralizing antibody (nAb and binding to its receptor by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and surface plasmon resonance. Specific antibody titers against gp350 were notably enhanced by immunization with gp350-Fc dimers compared with gp350 monomers. Furthermore, immunization with gp350-Fc fusion proteins elicited potent nAbs against EBV. Our data strongly suggest that an EBV gp350 vaccine based on Fc fusion proteins may be an efficient candidate to prevent EBV infection in clinical applications.

  19. A Zr-based bulk metallic glass for future stent applications: Materials properties, finite element modeling, and in vitro human vascular cell response.

    Huang, Lu; Pu, Chao; Fisher, Richard K; Mountain, Deidra J H; Gao, Yanfei; Liaw, Peter K; Zhang, Wei; He, Wei

    2015-10-01

    Despite the prevalent use of crystalline alloys in current vascular stent technology, new biomaterials are being actively sought after to improve stent performance. In this study, we demonstrated the potential of a Zr-Al-Fe-Cu bulk metallic glass (BMG) to serve as a candidate stent material. The mechanical properties of the Zr-based BMG, determined under both static and cyclic loadings, were characterized by high strength, which would allow for the design of thinner stent struts to improve stent biocompatibility. Finite element analysis further complemented the experimental results and revealed that a stent made of the Zr-based BMG was more compliant with the beats of a blood vessel, compared with medical 316L stainless steel. The Zr-based BMG was found to be corrosion resistant in a simulated body environment, owing to the presence of a highly stable ZrO2-rich surface passive film. Application-specific biocompatibility studies were conducted using human aortic endothelial cells and smooth muscle cells. The Zr-Al-Fe-Cu BMG was found to support stronger adhesion and faster coverage of endothelial cells and slower growth of smooth muscle cells than 316L stainless steel. These results suggest that the Zr-based BMG could promote re-endothelialization and potentially lower the risk of restenosis, which are critical to improve vascular stent implantation integration. In general, findings in this study raised the curtain for the potential application of BMGs as future candidates for stent applications. Vascular stents are medical devices typically used to restore the lumen of narrowed or clogged blood vessel. Despite the clinical success of metallic materials in stent-assisted angioplasty, post-surgery complications persist due to the mechanical failures, corrosion, and in-stent restenosis of current stents. To overcome these hurdles, strategies including new designs and surface functionalization have been exercised. In addition, the development of new materials with

  20. System model for evaluation of an emergency response plan for a nuclear power plant based on an assessment of nuclear emergency exercises

    Silva, Marcos Vinicius C.; Medeiros, Jose A.C.C.

    2011-01-01

    Nuclear power plants are designed and built with systems dedicated to provide a high degree of protection to its workers, the population living in their neighborhoods and the environment. Among the requirements for ensuring safety there are the existence of the nuclear emergency plan. Due to the relationship between the actions contemplated in the emergency plan and the nuclear emergency exercise, it becomes possible to assess the quality of the nuclear emergency plan, by means of emergency exercise evaluation, The techniques used in this work aim at improving the evaluation method of a nuclear emergency exercise through the use of performance indicators in the evaluation of the structures, actions and procedures involved. The proposed model enables comparisons between different moments of an emergency plan directed to a nuclear power plant as well as comparisons between plans dedicated to different facilities. (author)

  1. System model for evaluation of an emergency response plan for a nuclear power plant based on an assessment of nuclear emergency exercises

    Silva, Marcos Vinicius C.; Medeiros, Jose A.C.C. [Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (PEN/COPPE/UFRJ), RJ (Brazil). Coordenacao dos Programas de Pos-Graduacao de Engenharia. Programa de Engenharia Nuclear

    2011-07-01

    Nuclear power plants are designed and built with systems dedicated to provide a high degree of protection to its workers, the population living in their neighborhoods and the environment. Among the requirements for ensuring safety there are the existence of the nuclear emergency plan. Due to the relationship between the actions contemplated in the emergency plan and the nuclear emergency exercise, it becomes possible to assess the quality of the nuclear emergency plan, by means of emergency exercise evaluation, The techniques used in this work aim at improving the evaluation method of a nuclear emergency exercise through the use of performance indicators in the evaluation of the structures, actions and procedures involved. The proposed model enables comparisons between different moments of an emergency plan directed to a nuclear power plant as well as comparisons between plans dedicated to different facilities. (author)

  2. Mesoscopic model of actin-based propulsion.

    Jie Zhu

    Full Text Available Two theoretical models dominate current understanding of actin-based propulsion: microscopic polymerization ratchet model predicts that growing and writhing actin filaments generate forces and movements, while macroscopic elastic propulsion model suggests that deformation and stress of growing actin gel are responsible for the propulsion. We examine both experimentally and computationally the 2D movement of ellipsoidal beads propelled by actin tails and show that neither of the two models can explain the observed bistability of the orientation of the beads. To explain the data, we develop a 2D hybrid mesoscopic model by reconciling these two models such that individual actin filaments undergoing nucleation, elongation, attachment, detachment and capping are embedded into the boundary of a node-spring viscoelastic network representing the macroscopic actin gel. Stochastic simulations of this 'in silico' actin network show that the combined effects of the macroscopic elastic deformation and microscopic ratchets can explain the observed bistable orientation of the actin-propelled ellipsoidal beads. To test the theory further, we analyze observed distribution of the curvatures of the trajectories and show that the hybrid model's predictions fit the data. Finally, we demonstrate that the model can explain both concave-up and concave-down force-velocity relations for growing actin networks depending on the characteristic time scale and network recoil. To summarize, we propose that both microscopic polymerization ratchets and macroscopic stresses of the deformable actin network are responsible for the force and movement generation.

  3. Profile-likelihood Confidence Intervals in Item Response Theory Models.

    Chalmers, R Philip; Pek, Jolynn; Liu, Yang

    2017-01-01

    Confidence intervals (CIs) are fundamental inferential devices which quantify the sampling variability of parameter estimates. In item response theory, CIs have been primarily obtained from large-sample Wald-type approaches based on standard error estimates, derived from the observed or expected information matrix, after parameters have been estimated via maximum likelihood. An alternative approach to constructing CIs is to quantify sampling variability directly from the likelihood function with a technique known as profile-likelihood confidence intervals (PL CIs). In this article, we introduce PL CIs for item response theory models, compare PL CIs to classical large-sample Wald-type CIs, and demonstrate important distinctions among these CIs. CIs are then constructed for parameters directly estimated in the specified model and for transformed parameters which are often obtained post-estimation. Monte Carlo simulation results suggest that PL CIs perform consistently better than Wald-type CIs for both non-transformed and transformed parameters.

  4. Modeling the frequency response of microwave radiometers with QUCS

    Zonca, A; Williams, B; Rubin, I; Meinhold, P; Lubin, P; Roucaries, B; D'Arcangelo, O; Franceschet, C; Mennella, A; Bersanelli, M; Jahn, S

    2010-01-01

    Characterization of the frequency response of coherent radiometric receivers is a key element in estimating the flux of astrophysical emissions, since the measured signal depends on the convolution of the source spectral emission with the instrument band shape. Laboratory Radio Frequency (RF) measurements of the instrument bandpass often require complex test setups and are subject to a number of systematic effects driven by thermal issues and impedance matching, particularly if cryogenic operation is involved. In this paper we present an approach to modeling radiometers bandpasses by integrating simulations and RF measurements of individual components. This method is based on QUCS (Quasi Universal Circuit Simulator), an open-source circuit simulator, which gives the flexibility of choosing among the available devices, implementing new analytical software models or using measured S-parameters. Therefore an independent estimate of the instrument bandpass is achieved using standard individual component measurements and validated analytical simulations. In order to automate the process of preparing input data, running simulations and exporting results we developed the Python package python-qucs and released it under GNU Public License. We discuss, as working cases, bandpass response modeling of the COFE and Planck Low Frequency Instrument (LFI) radiometers and compare results obtained with QUCS and with a commercial circuit simulator software. The main purpose of bandpass modeling in COFE is to optimize component matching, while in LFI they represent the best estimation of frequency response, since end-to-end measurements were strongly affected by systematic effects.

  5. Graph Model Based Indoor Tracking

    Jensen, Christian Søndergaard; Lu, Hua; Yang, Bin

    2009-01-01

    The tracking of the locations of moving objects in large indoor spaces is important, as it enables a range of applications related to, e.g., security and indoor navigation and guidance. This paper presents a graph model based approach to indoor tracking that offers a uniform data management...

  6. Computer Based Modelling and Simulation

    GENERAL I ARTICLE. Computer Based ... universities, and later did system analysis, ... sonal computers (PC) and low cost software packages and tools. They can serve as useful learning experience through student projects. Models are .... Let us consider a numerical example: to calculate the velocity of a trainer aircraft ...

  7. Joint Testlet Cognitive Diagnosis Modeling for Paired Local Item Dependence in Response Times and Response Accuracy

    Peida Zhan

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available In joint models for item response times (RTs and response accuracy (RA, local item dependence is composed of local RA dependence and local RT dependence. The two components are usually caused by the same common stimulus and emerge as pairs. Thus, the violation of local item independence in the joint models is called paired local item dependence. To address the issue of paired local item dependence while applying the joint cognitive diagnosis models (CDMs, this study proposed a joint testlet cognitive diagnosis modeling approach. The proposed approach is an extension of Zhan et al. (2017 and it incorporates two types of random testlet effect parameters (one for RA and the other for RTs to account for paired local item dependence. The model parameters were estimated using the full Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC method. The 2015 PISA computer-based mathematics data were analyzed to demonstrate the application of the proposed model. Further, a brief simulation study was conducted to demonstrate the acceptable parameter recovery and the consequence of ignoring paired local item dependence.

  8. Response Mixture Modeling: Accounting for Heterogeneity in Item Characteristics across Response Times.

    Molenaar, Dylan; de Boeck, Paul

    2018-06-01

    In item response theory modeling of responses and response times, it is commonly assumed that the item responses have the same characteristics across the response times. However, heterogeneity might arise in the data if subjects resort to different response processes when solving the test items. These differences may be within-subject effects, that is, a subject might use a certain process on some of the items and a different process with different item characteristics on the other items. If the probability of using one process over the other process depends on the subject's response time, within-subject heterogeneity of the item characteristics across the response times arises. In this paper, the method of response mixture modeling is presented to account for such heterogeneity. Contrary to traditional mixture modeling where the full response vectors are classified, response mixture modeling involves classification of the individual elements in the response vector. In a simulation study, the response mixture model is shown to be viable in terms of parameter recovery. In addition, the response mixture model is applied to a real dataset to illustrate its use in investigating within-subject heterogeneity in the item characteristics across response times.

  9. SLS Model Based Design: A Navigation Perspective

    Oliver, T. Emerson; Anzalone, Evan; Park, Thomas; Geohagan, Kevin

    2018-01-01

    The SLS Program has implemented a Model-based Design (MBD) and Model-based Requirements approach for managing component design information and system requirements. This approach differs from previous large-scale design efforts at Marshall Space Flight Center where design documentation alone conveyed information required for vehicle design and analysis and where extensive requirements sets were used to scope and constrain the design. The SLS Navigation Team is responsible for the Program-controlled Design Math Models (DMMs) which describe and represent the performance of the Inertial Navigation System (INS) and the Rate Gyro Assemblies (RGAs) used by Guidance, Navigation, and Controls (GN&C). The SLS Navigation Team is also responsible for navigation algorithms. The navigation algorithms are delivered for implementation on the flight hardware as a DMM. For the SLS Block 1B design, the additional GPS Receiver hardware model is managed as a DMM at the vehicle design level. This paper describes the models, and discusses the processes and methods used to engineer, design, and coordinate engineering trades and performance assessments using SLS practices as applied to the GN&C system, with a particular focus on the navigation components.

  10. Model-based sensor diagnosis

    Milgram, J.; Dormoy, J.L.

    1994-09-01

    Running a nuclear power plant involves monitoring data provided by the installation's sensors. Operators and computerized systems then use these data to establish a diagnostic of the plant. However, the instrumentation system is complex, and is not immune to faults and failures. This paper presents a system for detecting sensor failures using a topological description of the installation and a set of component models. This model of the plant implicitly contains relations between sensor data. These relations must always be checked if all the components are functioning correctly. The failure detection task thus consists of checking these constraints. The constraints are extracted in two stages. Firstly, a qualitative model of their existence is built using structural analysis. Secondly, the models are formally handled according to the results of the structural analysis, in order to establish the constraints on the sensor data. This work constitutes an initial step in extending model-based diagnosis, as the information on which it is based is suspect. This work will be followed by surveillance of the detection system. When the instrumentation is assumed to be sound, the unverified constraints indicate errors on the plant model. (authors). 8 refs., 4 figs

  11. Least-squares model-based halftoning

    Pappas, Thrasyvoulos N.; Neuhoff, David L.

    1992-08-01

    A least-squares model-based approach to digital halftoning is proposed. It exploits both a printer model and a model for visual perception. It attempts to produce an 'optimal' halftoned reproduction, by minimizing the squared error between the response of the cascade of the printer and visual models to the binary image and the response of the visual model to the original gray-scale image. Conventional methods, such as clustered ordered dither, use the properties of the eye only implicitly, and resist printer distortions at the expense of spatial and gray-scale resolution. In previous work we showed that our printer model can be used to modify error diffusion to account for printer distortions. The modified error diffusion algorithm has better spatial and gray-scale resolution than conventional techniques, but produces some well known artifacts and asymmetries because it does not make use of an explicit eye model. Least-squares model-based halftoning uses explicit eye models and relies on printer models that predict distortions and exploit them to increase, rather than decrease, both spatial and gray-scale resolution. We have shown that the one-dimensional least-squares problem, in which each row or column of the image is halftoned independently, can be implemented with the Viterbi's algorithm. Unfortunately, no closed form solution can be found in two dimensions. The two-dimensional least squares solution is obtained by iterative techniques. Experiments show that least-squares model-based halftoning produces more gray levels and better spatial resolution than conventional techniques. We also show that the least- squares approach eliminates the problems associated with error diffusion. Model-based halftoning can be especially useful in transmission of high quality documents using high fidelity gray-scale image encoders. As we have shown, in such cases halftoning can be performed at the receiver, just before printing. Apart from coding efficiency, this approach

  12. Modeling Rabbit Responses to Single and Multiple Aerosol ...

    Journal Article Survival models are developed here to predict response and time-to-response for mortality in rabbits following exposures to single or multiple aerosol doses of Bacillus anthracis spores. Hazard function models were developed for a multiple dose dataset to predict the probability of death through specifying dose-response functions and the time between exposure and the time-to-death (TTD). Among the models developed, the best-fitting survival model (baseline model) has an exponential dose-response model with a Weibull TTD distribution. Alternative models assessed employ different underlying dose-response functions and use the assumption that, in a multiple dose scenario, earlier doses affect the hazard functions of each subsequent dose. In addition, published mechanistic models are analyzed and compared with models developed in this paper. None of the alternative models that were assessed provided a statistically significant improvement in fit over the baseline model. The general approach utilizes simple empirical data analysis to develop parsimonious models with limited reliance on mechanistic assumptions. The baseline model predicts TTDs consistent with reported results from three independent high-dose rabbit datasets. More accurate survival models depend upon future development of dose-response datasets specifically designed to assess potential multiple dose effects on response and time-to-response. The process used in this paper to dev

  13. Bridge Condition Assessment based on Vibration Responses of Passenger Vehicle

    Miyamoto, Ayaho; Yabe, Akito

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, we propose a new method of assessing the condition of existing short- and medium-span reinforced/prestressed concrete bridges based on vibration monitoring data obtained from a public bus. This paper not only describes details of a prototype monitoring system that uses information technology and sensors capable of providing more accurate knowledge of bridge performance than conventional ways but also shows a few specific examples of bridge condition assessment based on vehicle vibrations measured by using an in-service public bus equipped with vibration measurement instrumentation. This paper also describes a sensitivity analysis of deteriorating bridges based on simulation of the acceleration response of buses conducted by the 'substructure method' employing a finite element model to verify the above bridge performance results. The main conclusions obtained in this study can be summarized as follows: (1) Because the vibration responses of passenger vehicles, such as buses, have a good linear relationship with the vibration responses of the target bridges, the proposed system can be used as a practical monitoring system for bridge condition assessment. (2) The results of sensitivity analysis performed by the substructure method show that bus vibration responses are useful for evaluating target bridge performance. (3) The proposed method was applied to a network of real bridges in a local area to evaluate its effectiveness. The results indicate that the proposed method can be used to prioritize the repair/strengthening works of existing bridges based on various vibration information in order to help bridge administrators establish rational maintenance strategies.

  14. Atmospheric dispersion modeling: Challenges of the Fukushima Daiichi response

    Sugiyama, Gayle [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Nasstrom, John [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Pobanz, Brenda [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Foster, Kevin [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Simpson, Matthew [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Vogt, Phil [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Aluzzi, Fernando [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Homann, Steve [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2012-05-01

    In this research, the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center (NARAC) provided a wide range of predictions and analyses as part of the response to the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident including: daily Japanese weather forecasts and atmospheric transport predictions to inform planning for field monitoring operations and to provide U.S. government agencies with ongoing situational awareness of meteorological conditions; estimates of possible dose in Japan based on hypothetical U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission scenarios of potential radionuclide releases to support protective action planning for U.S. citizens; predictions of possible plume arrival times and dose levels at U.S. locations; and source estimation and plume model refinement based on atmospheric dispersion modeling and available monitoring data.

  15. SLS Navigation Model-Based Design Approach

    Oliver, T. Emerson; Anzalone, Evan; Geohagan, Kevin; Bernard, Bill; Park, Thomas

    2018-01-01

    The SLS Program chose to implement a Model-based Design and Model-based Requirements approach for managing component design information and system requirements. This approach differs from previous large-scale design efforts at Marshall Space Flight Center where design documentation alone conveyed information required for vehicle design and analysis and where extensive requirements sets were used to scope and constrain the design. The SLS Navigation Team has been responsible for the Program-controlled Design Math Models (DMMs) which describe and represent the performance of the Inertial Navigation System (INS) and the Rate Gyro Assemblies (RGAs) used by Guidance, Navigation, and Controls (GN&C). The SLS Navigation Team is also responsible for the navigation algorithms. The navigation algorithms are delivered for implementation on the flight hardware as a DMM. For the SLS Block 1-B design, the additional GPS Receiver hardware is managed as a DMM at the vehicle design level. This paper provides a discussion of the processes and methods used to engineer, design, and coordinate engineering trades and performance assessments using SLS practices as applied to the GN&C system, with a particular focus on the Navigation components. These include composing system requirements, requirements verification, model development, model verification and validation, and modeling and analysis approaches. The Model-based Design and Requirements approach does not reduce the effort associated with the design process versus previous processes used at Marshall Space Flight Center. Instead, the approach takes advantage of overlap between the requirements development and management process, and the design and analysis process by efficiently combining the control (i.e. the requirement) and the design mechanisms. The design mechanism is the representation of the component behavior and performance in design and analysis tools. The focus in the early design process shifts from the development and

  16. A model for successful use of student response systems.

    Klein, Kathleen; Kientz, Mary

    2013-01-01

    This article presents a model developed to assist teachers in selecting, implementing, and assessing student response system (SRS) use in the classroom. Research indicates that SRS technology is effective in achieving desired outcomes in higher education settings. Studies indicate that effective SRS use promotes greater achievement of learning outcomes, increased student attention, improved class participation, and active engagement. The model offered in this article is based on best practices described in the literature and several years of SRS use in a traditional higher education classroom setting. Student feedback indicates increased class participation and engagement with SRS technology. Teacher feedback indicates opportunities for contingent teaching. The model described in this article provides a process to assist teachers in the successful selection, implementation, and assessment of SRS technology in the classroom.

  17. Response Modelling of Bitumen, Bituminous Mastic and Mortar

    Woldekidan, M.F.

    2011-01-01

    This research focuses on testing and modelling the viscoelastic response of bituminous binders. The main goal is to find an appropriate response model for bituminous binders. The desired model should allow implementation into numerical environments such as ABAQUS. On the basis of such numerical

  18. Bayes factor covariance testing in item response models

    Fox, J.P.; Mulder, J.; Sinharay, Sandip

    2017-01-01

    Two marginal one-parameter item response theory models are introduced, by integrating out the latent variable or random item parameter. It is shown that both marginal response models are multivariate (probit) models with a compound symmetry covariance structure. Several common hypotheses concerning

  19. Bayes Factor Covariance Testing in Item Response Models

    Fox, Jean-Paul; Mulder, Joris; Sinharay, Sandip

    2017-01-01

    Two marginal one-parameter item response theory models are introduced, by integrating out the latent variable or random item parameter. It is shown that both marginal response models are multivariate (probit) models with a compound symmetry covariance structure. Several common hypotheses concerning

  20. Model-based security testing

    Schieferdecker, Ina; Großmann, Jürgen; Schneider, Martin

    2012-01-01

    Security testing aims at validating software system requirements related to security properties like confidentiality, integrity, authentication, authorization, availability, and non-repudiation. Although security testing techniques are available for many years, there has been little approaches that allow for specification of test cases at a higher level of abstraction, for enabling guidance on test identification and specification as well as for automated test generation. Model-based security...

  1. A comparison of item response models for accuracy and speed of item responses with applications to adaptive testing.

    van Rijn, Peter W; Ali, Usama S

    2017-05-01

    We compare three modelling frameworks for accuracy and speed of item responses in the context of adaptive testing. The first framework is based on modelling scores that result from a scoring rule that incorporates both accuracy and speed. The second framework is the hierarchical modelling approach developed by van der Linden (2007, Psychometrika, 72, 287) in which a regular item response model is specified for accuracy and a log-normal model for speed. The third framework is the diffusion framework in which the response is assumed to be the result of a Wiener process. Although the three frameworks differ in the relation between accuracy and speed, one commonality is that the marginal model for accuracy can be simplified to the two-parameter logistic model. We discuss both conditional and marginal estimation of model parameters. Models from all three frameworks were fitted to data from a mathematics and spelling test. Furthermore, we applied a linear and adaptive testing mode to the data off-line in order to determine differences between modelling frameworks. It was found that a model from the scoring rule framework outperformed a hierarchical model in terms of model-based reliability, but the results were mixed with respect to correlations with external measures. © 2017 The British Psychological Society.

  2. A Box-Cox normal model for response times.

    Klein Entink, R H; van der Linden, W J; Fox, J-P

    2009-11-01

    The log-transform has been a convenient choice in response time modelling on test items. However, motivated by a dataset of the Medical College Admission Test where the lognormal model violated the normality assumption, the possibilities of the broader class of Box-Cox transformations for response time modelling are investigated. After an introduction and an outline of a broader framework for analysing responses and response times simultaneously, the performance of a Box-Cox normal model for describing response times is investigated using simulation studies and a real data example. A transformation-invariant implementation of the deviance information criterium (DIC) is developed that allows for comparing model fit between models with different transformation parameters. Showing an enhanced description of the shape of the response time distributions, its application in an educational measurement context is discussed at length.

  3. Sigmoidal response model for radiation risk

    Kondo, Sohei

    1995-01-01

    From epidemiologic studies, we find no measurable increase in the incidences of birth defects and cancer after low-level exposure to radiation. Based on modern understanding of the molecular basis of teratogenesis and cancer, I attempt to explain thresholds observed in atomic bomb survivors, radium painters, uranium workers and patients injected with Thorotrast. Teratogenic injury induced by doses below threshold will be completely eliminated as a result of altruistic death (apoptosis) of injured cells. Various lines of evidence obtained show that oncomutations produced in cancerous cells after exposure to radiation are of spontaneous origin and that ionizing radiation acts not as an oncomutation inducer but as a tumor promoter by induction of chronic wound-healing activity. The tissue damage induced by radiation has to be repaired by cell growth and this creates opportunity for clonal expansion of a spontaneously occurring preneoplastic cell. If the wound-healing error model is correct, there must be a threshold dose range of radiation giving no increase in cancer risk. (author)

  4. Skull base chordomas: analysis of dose-response characteristics

    Niemierko, Andrzej; Terahara, Atsuro; Goitein, Michael

    1997-01-01

    Objective: To extract dose-response characteristics from dose-volume histograms and corresponding actuarial survival statistics for 115 patients with skull base chordomas. Materials and Methods: We analyzed data for 115 patients with skull base chordoma treated with combined photon and proton conformal radiotherapy to doses in the range 66.6Gy - 79.2Gy. Data set for each patient included gender, histology, age, tumor volume, prescribed dose, overall treatment time, time to recurrence or time to last observation, target dose-volume histogram, and several dosimetric parameters (minimum/mean/median/maximum target dose, percent of the target volume receiving the prescribed dose, dose to 90% of the target volume, and the Equivalent Uniform Dose (EUD). Data were analyzed using the Kaplan-Meier survivor function estimate, the proportional hazards (Cox) model, and parametric modeling of the actuarial probability of recurrence. Parameters of dose-response characteristics were obtained using the maximum likelihood method. Results: Local failure developed in 42 (36%) of patients, with actuarial local control rates at 5 years of 59.2%. The proportional hazards model revealed significant dependence of gender on the probability of recurrence, with female patients having significantly poorer prognosis (hazard ratio of 2.3 with the p value of 0.008). The Wilcoxon and the log-rank tests of the corresponding Kaplan-Meier recurrence-free survival curves confirmed statistical significance of this effect. The Cox model with stratification by gender showed significance of tumor volume (p=0.01), the minimum target dose (p=0.02), and the EUD (p=0.02). Other parameters were not significant at the α level of significance of 0.05, including the prescribed dose (p=0.21). Parametric analysis using a combined model of tumor control probability (to account for non-uniformity of target dose distribution) and the Weibull failure time model (to account for censoring) allowed us to estimate

  5. Model-Based Security Testing

    Ina Schieferdecker

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Security testing aims at validating software system requirements related to security properties like confidentiality, integrity, authentication, authorization, availability, and non-repudiation. Although security testing techniques are available for many years, there has been little approaches that allow for specification of test cases at a higher level of abstraction, for enabling guidance on test identification and specification as well as for automated test generation. Model-based security testing (MBST is a relatively new field and especially dedicated to the systematic and efficient specification and documentation of security test objectives, security test cases and test suites, as well as to their automated or semi-automated generation. In particular, the combination of security modelling and test generation approaches is still a challenge in research and of high interest for industrial applications. MBST includes e.g. security functional testing, model-based fuzzing, risk- and threat-oriented testing, and the usage of security test patterns. This paper provides a survey on MBST techniques and the related models as well as samples of new methods and tools that are under development in the European ITEA2-project DIAMONDS.

  6. Prediction of spectral acceleration response ordinates based on PGA attenuation

    Graizer, V.; Kalkan, E.

    2009-01-01

    Developed herein is a new peak ground acceleration (PGA)-based predictive model for 5% damped pseudospectral acceleration (SA) ordinates of free-field horizontal component of ground motion from shallow-crustal earthquakes. The predictive model of ground motion spectral shape (i.e., normalized spectrum) is generated as a continuous function of few parameters. The proposed model eliminates the classical exhausted matrix of estimator coefficients, and provides significant ease in its implementation. It is structured on the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) database with a number of additions from recent Californian events including 2003 San Simeon and 2004 Parkfield earthquakes. A unique feature of the model is its new functional form explicitly integrating PGA as a scaling factor. The spectral shape model is parameterized within an approximation function using moment magnitude, closest distance to the fault (fault distance) and VS30 (average shear-wave velocity in the upper 30 m) as independent variables. Mean values of its estimator coefficients were computed by fitting an approximation function to spectral shape of each record using robust nonlinear optimization. Proposed spectral shape model is independent of the PGA attenuation, allowing utilization of various PGA attenuation relations to estimate the response spectrum of earthquake recordings.

  7. Food supply and demand, a simulation model of the functional response of grazing ruminants

    Smallegange, I.M.; Brunsting, A.M.H.

    2002-01-01

    A dynamic model of the functional response is a first prerequisite to be able to bridge the gap between local feeding ecology and grazing rules that pertain to larger scales. A mechanistic model is presented that simulates the functional response, growth and grazing time of ruminants. It is based on

  8. Motor execution detection based on autonomic nervous system responses

    Marchal-Crespo, Laura; Riener, Robert; Zimmermann, Raphael; Lambercy, Olivier; Edelmann, Janis; Fluet, Marie-Christine; Gassert, Roger; Wolf, Martin

    2013-01-01

    Triggered assistance has been shown to be a successful robotic strategy for provoking motor plasticity, probably because it requires neurologic patients’ active participation to initiate a movement involving their impaired limb. Triggered assistance, however, requires sufficient residual motor control to activate the trigger and, thus, is not applicable to individuals with severe neurologic injuries. In these situations, brain and body–computer interfaces have emerged as promising solutions to control robotic devices. In this paper, we investigate the feasibility of a body–machine interface to detect motion execution only monitoring the autonomic nervous system (ANS) response. Four physiological signals were measured (blood pressure, breathing rate, skin conductance response and heart rate) during an isometric pinching task and used to train a classifier based on hidden Markov models. We performed an experiment with six healthy subjects to test the effectiveness of the classifier to detect rest and active pinching periods. The results showed that the movement execution can be accurately classified based only on peripheral autonomic signals, with an accuracy level of 84.5%, sensitivity of 83.8% and specificity of 85.2%. These results are encouraging to perform further research on the use of the ANS response in body–machine interfaces. (paper)

  9. Uncertain hybrid model for the response calculation of an alternator

    Kuczkowiak, Antoine

    2014-01-01

    The complex structural dynamic behavior of alternator must be well understood in order to insure their reliable and safe operation. The numerical model is however difficult to construct mainly due to the presence of a high level of uncertainty. The objective of this work is to provide decision support tools in order to assess the vibratory levels in operation before to restart the alternator. Based on info-gap theory, a first decision support tool is proposed: the objective here is to assess the robustness of the dynamical response to the uncertain modal model. Based on real data, the calibration of an info-gap model of uncertainty is also proposed in order to enhance its fidelity to reality. Then, the extended constitutive relation error is used to expand identified mode shapes which are used to assess the vibratory levels. The robust expansion process is proposed in order to obtain robust expanded mode shapes to parametric uncertainties. In presence of lack-of knowledge, the trade-off between fidelity-to-data and robustness-to-uncertainties which expresses that robustness improves as fidelity deteriorates is emphasized on an industrial structure by using both reduced order model and surrogate model techniques. (author)

  10. A simple non-linear model of immune response

    Gutnikov, Sergei; Melnikov, Yuri

    2003-01-01

    It is still unknown why the adaptive immune response in the natural immune system based on clonal proliferation of lymphocytes requires interaction of at least two different cell types with the same antigen. We present a simple mathematical model illustrating that the system with separate types of cells for antigen recognition and patogen destruction provides more robust adaptive immunity than the system where just one cell type is responsible for both recognition and destruction. The model is over-simplified as we did not have an intention of describing the natural immune system. However, our model provides a tool for testing the proposed approach through qualitative analysis of the immune system dynamics in order to construct more sophisticated models of the immune systems that exist in the living nature. It also opens a possibility to explore specific features of highly non-linear dynamics in nature-inspired computational paradigms like artificial immune systems and immunocomputing . We expect this paper to be of interest not only for mathematicians but also for biologists; therefore we made effort to explain mathematics in sufficient detail for readers without professional mathematical background

  11. The fractional volatility model: An agent-based interpretation

    Vilela Mendes, R.

    2008-06-01

    Based on the criteria of mathematical simplicity and consistency with empirical market data, a model with volatility driven by fractional noise has been constructed which provides a fairly accurate mathematical parametrization of the data. Here, some features of the model are reviewed and extended to account for leverage effects. Using agent-based models, one tries to find which agent strategies and (or) properties of the financial institutions might be responsible for the features of the fractional volatility model.

  12. Corporate Social Responsibility Agreements Model for Community ...

    Michael

    2016-06-01

    Jun 1, 2016 ... aspect of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR), to the extent that often .... intentions and implemented some community development projects, the .... Environmental Protection Agency, Police and civil society to solicit their ...

  13. Multi-Wheat-Model Ensemble Responses to Interannual Climate Variability

    Ruane, Alex C.; Hudson, Nicholas I.; Asseng, Senthold; Camarrano, Davide; Ewert, Frank; Martre, Pierre; Boote, Kenneth J.; Thorburn, Peter J.; Aggarwal, Pramod K.; Angulo, Carlos

    2016-01-01

    We compare 27 wheat models' yield responses to interannual climate variability, analyzed at locations in Argentina, Australia, India, and The Netherlands as part of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Wheat Pilot. Each model simulated 1981e2010 grain yield, and we evaluate results against the interannual variability of growing season temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation. The amount of information used for calibration has only a minor effect on most models' climate response, and even small multi-model ensembles prove beneficial. Wheat model clusters reveal common characteristics of yield response to climate; however models rarely share the same cluster at all four sites indicating substantial independence. Only a weak relationship (R2 0.24) was found between the models' sensitivities to interannual temperature variability and their response to long-termwarming, suggesting that additional processes differentiate climate change impacts from observed climate variability analogs and motivating continuing analysis and model development efforts.

  14. A Model-Free Diagnostic for Single-Peakedness of Item Responses Using Ordered Conditional Means

    Polak, Marike; De Rooij, Mark; Heiser, Willem J.

    2012-01-01

    In this article we propose a model-free diagnostic for single-peakedness (unimodality) of item responses. Presuming a unidimensional unfolding scale and a given item ordering, we approximate item response functions of all items based on ordered conditional means (OCM). The proposed OCM methodology is based on Thurstone & Chave's (1929) "criterion…

  15. A model evaluation checklist for process-based environmental models

    Jackson-Blake, Leah

    2015-04-01

    Mechanistic catchment-scale phosphorus models appear to perform poorly where diffuse sources dominate. The reasons for this were investigated for one commonly-applied model, the INtegrated model of CAtchment Phosphorus (INCA-P). Model output was compared to 18 months of daily water quality monitoring data in a small agricultural catchment in Scotland, and model structure, key model processes and internal model responses were examined. Although the model broadly reproduced dissolved phosphorus dynamics, it struggled with particulates. The reasons for poor performance were explored, together with ways in which improvements could be made. The process of critiquing and assessing model performance was then generalised to provide a broadly-applicable model evaluation checklist, incorporating: (1) Calibration challenges, relating to difficulties in thoroughly searching a high-dimensional parameter space and in selecting appropriate means of evaluating model performance. In this study, for example, model simplification was identified as a necessary improvement to reduce the number of parameters requiring calibration, whilst the traditionally-used Nash Sutcliffe model performance statistic was not able to discriminate between realistic and unrealistic model simulations, and alternative statistics were needed. (2) Data limitations, relating to a lack of (or uncertainty in) input data, data to constrain model parameters, data for model calibration and testing, and data to test internal model processes. In this study, model reliability could be improved by addressing all four kinds of data limitation. For example, there was insufficient surface water monitoring data for model testing against an independent dataset to that used in calibration, whilst additional monitoring of groundwater and effluent phosphorus inputs would help distinguish between alternative plausible model parameterisations. (3) Model structural inadequacies, whereby model structure may inadequately represent

  16. Adopting a Models-Based Approach to Teaching Physical Education

    Casey, Ashley; MacPhail, Ann

    2018-01-01

    Background: The popularised notion of models-based practice (MBP) is one that focuses on the delivery of a model, e.g. Cooperative Learning, Sport Education, Teaching Personal and Social Responsibility, Teaching Games for Understanding. Indeed, while an abundance of research studies have examined the delivery of a single model and some have…

  17. Improving Rice Modeling Success Rate with Ternary Non-structural Fertilizer Response Model.

    Li, Juan; Zhang, Mingqing; Chen, Fang; Yao, Baoquan

    2018-06-13

    Fertilizer response modelling is an important technical approach to realize metrological fertilization on rice. With the goal of solving the problems of a low success rate of a ternary quadratic polynomial model (TPFM) and to expand the model's applicability, this paper established a ternary non-structural fertilizer response model (TNFM) based on the experimental results from N, P and K fertilized rice fields. Our research results showed that the TNFM significantly improved the modelling success rate by addressing problems arising from setting the bias and multicollinearity in a TPFM. The results from 88 rice field trials in China indicated that the proportion of typical TNFMs that satisfy the general fertilizer response law of plant nutrition was 40.9%, while the analogous proportion of TPFMs was only 26.1%. The recommended fertilization showed a significant positive linear correlation between the two models, and the parameters N 0 , P 0 and K 0 that estimated the value of soil supplying nutrient equivalents can be used as better indicators of yield potential in plots where no N or P or K fertilizer was applied. The theoretical analysis showed that the new model has a higher fitting accuracy and a wider application range.

  18. Crowdsourcing Based 3d Modeling

    Somogyi, A.; Barsi, A.; Molnar, B.; Lovas, T.

    2016-06-01

    Web-based photo albums that support organizing and viewing the users' images are widely used. These services provide a convenient solution for storing, editing and sharing images. In many cases, the users attach geotags to the images in order to enable using them e.g. in location based applications on social networks. Our paper discusses a procedure that collects open access images from a site frequently visited by tourists. Geotagged pictures showing the image of a sight or tourist attraction are selected and processed in photogrammetric processing software that produces the 3D model of the captured object. For the particular investigation we selected three attractions in Budapest. To assess the geometrical accuracy, we used laser scanner and DSLR as well as smart phone photography to derive reference values to enable verifying the spatial model obtained from the web-album images. The investigation shows how detailed and accurate models could be derived applying photogrammetric processing software, simply by using images of the community, without visiting the site.

  19. CROWDSOURCING BASED 3D MODELING

    A. Somogyi

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Web-based photo albums that support organizing and viewing the users’ images are widely used. These services provide a convenient solution for storing, editing and sharing images. In many cases, the users attach geotags to the images in order to enable using them e.g. in location based applications on social networks. Our paper discusses a procedure that collects open access images from a site frequently visited by tourists. Geotagged pictures showing the image of a sight or tourist attraction are selected and processed in photogrammetric processing software that produces the 3D model of the captured object. For the particular investigation we selected three attractions in Budapest. To assess the geometrical accuracy, we used laser scanner and DSLR as well as smart phone photography to derive reference values to enable verifying the spatial model obtained from the web-album images. The investigation shows how detailed and accurate models could be derived applying photogrammetric processing software, simply by using images of the community, without visiting the site.

  20. Instrument Response Modeling and Simulation for the GLAST Burst Monitor

    Kippen, R. M.; Hoover, A. S.; Wallace, M. S.; Pendleton, G. N.; Meegan, C. A.; Fishman, G. J.; Wilson-Hodge, C. A.; Kouveliotou, C.; Lichti, G. G.; Kienlin, A. von; Steinle, H.; Diehl, R.; Greiner, J.; Preece, R. D.; Connaughton, V.; Briggs, M. S.; Paciesas, W. S.; Bhat, P. N.

    2007-01-01

    The GLAST Burst Monitor (GBM) is designed to provide wide field of view observations of gamma-ray bursts and other fast transient sources in the energy range 10 keV to 30 MeV. The GBM is composed of several unshielded and uncollimated scintillation detectors (twelve NaI and two BGO) that are widely dispersed about the GLAST spacecraft. As a result, reconstructing source locations, energy spectra, and temporal properties from GBM data requires detailed knowledge of the detectors' response to both direct radiation as well as that scattered from the spacecraft and Earth's atmosphere. This full GBM instrument response will be captured in the form of a response function database that is derived from computer modeling and simulation. The simulation system is based on the GEANT4 Monte Carlo radiation transport simulation toolset, and is being extensively validated against calibrated experimental GBM data. We discuss the architecture of the GBM simulation and modeling system and describe how its products will be used for analysis of observed GBM data. Companion papers describe the status of validating the system

  1. Multivariate statistical modelling based on generalized linear models

    Fahrmeir, Ludwig

    1994-01-01

    This book is concerned with the use of generalized linear models for univariate and multivariate regression analysis. Its emphasis is to provide a detailed introductory survey of the subject based on the analysis of real data drawn from a variety of subjects including the biological sciences, economics, and the social sciences. Where possible, technical details and proofs are deferred to an appendix in order to provide an accessible account for non-experts. Topics covered include: models for multi-categorical responses, model checking, time series and longitudinal data, random effects models, and state-space models. Throughout, the authors have taken great pains to discuss the underlying theoretical ideas in ways that relate well to the data at hand. As a result, numerous researchers whose work relies on the use of these models will find this an invaluable account to have on their desks. "The basic aim of the authors is to bring together and review a large part of recent advances in statistical modelling of m...

  2. PID controller auto-tuning based on process step response and damping optimum criterion.

    Pavković, Danijel; Polak, Siniša; Zorc, Davor

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a novel method of PID controller tuning suitable for higher-order aperiodic processes and aimed at step response-based auto-tuning applications. The PID controller tuning is based on the identification of so-called n-th order lag (PTn) process model and application of damping optimum criterion, thus facilitating straightforward algebraic rules for the adjustment of both the closed-loop response speed and damping. The PTn model identification is based on the process step response, wherein the PTn model parameters are evaluated in a novel manner from the process step response equivalent dead-time and lag time constant. The effectiveness of the proposed PTn model parameter estimation procedure and the related damping optimum-based PID controller auto-tuning have been verified by means of extensive computer simulations. © 2013 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. The modeling of response indicators of integrated water resources ...

    models were used to model and predict the relationship between water resources mobilization WRM and response variables in the ... to the fast growing demand of urban and rural populations ... Meteorological Organization (WMO). They fall.

  4. Response of subassembly model with internals

    Kennedy, J.M.; Belytschko, T.

    1977-01-01

    In safety analysis at the subassembly level, the following aspects of subassembly response are of concern: (1) the structural integrity of the subassembly within which the accident occurs: (2) the structural integrity of adjacent subassemblies, particularly the maintenance of sufficient cross sectional area for flow of the coolant: and (3) prevention of damage to fuel pins in the adjacent subassembly, for this could lead to additional energy release and thus the propagation of the accident. For the purpose of predicting the structural response in such accident environments, a program STRAW has been developed. This is a finite element program which can treat the structure-fluid system consisting of the coolant and the subassembly walls. Both material nonlinearities due to elastic-plastic response and geometric nonlinearities due to large displacements can be treated. The energy source can be represented either by a pressure-time history or an equation of state. (Auth.)

  5. Multi-wheat-model ensemble responses to interannual climatic variability

    Ruane, A C; Hudson, N I; Asseng, S

    2016-01-01

    We compare 27 wheat models' yield responses to interannual climate variability, analyzed at locations in Argentina, Australia, India, and The Netherlands as part of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Wheat Pilot. Each model simulated 1981–2010 grain yield, and ......-term warming, suggesting that additional processes differentiate climate change impacts from observed climate variability analogs and motivating continuing analysis and model development efforts.......We compare 27 wheat models' yield responses to interannual climate variability, analyzed at locations in Argentina, Australia, India, and The Netherlands as part of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Wheat Pilot. Each model simulated 1981–2010 grain yield, and we...... evaluate results against the interannual variability of growing season temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation. The amount of information used for calibration has only a minor effect on most models' climate response, and even small multi-model ensembles prove beneficial. Wheat model clusters reveal...

  6. A note on monotonicity of item response functions for ordered polytomous item response theory models.

    Kang, Hyeon-Ah; Su, Ya-Hui; Chang, Hua-Hua

    2018-03-08

    A monotone relationship between a true score (τ) and a latent trait level (θ) has been a key assumption for many psychometric applications. The monotonicity property in dichotomous response models is evident as a result of a transformation via a test characteristic curve. Monotonicity in polytomous models, in contrast, is not immediately obvious because item response functions are determined by a set of response category curves, which are conceivably non-monotonic in θ. The purpose of the present note is to demonstrate strict monotonicity in ordered polytomous item response models. Five models that are widely used in operational assessments are considered for proof: the generalized partial credit model (Muraki, 1992, Applied Psychological Measurement, 16, 159), the nominal model (Bock, 1972, Psychometrika, 37, 29), the partial credit model (Masters, 1982, Psychometrika, 47, 147), the rating scale model (Andrich, 1978, Psychometrika, 43, 561), and the graded response model (Samejima, 1972, A general model for free-response data (Psychometric Monograph no. 18). Psychometric Society, Richmond). The study asserts that the item response functions in these models strictly increase in θ and thus there exists strict monotonicity between τ and θ under certain specified conditions. This conclusion validates the practice of customarily using τ in place of θ in applied settings and provides theoretical grounds for one-to-one transformations between the two scales. © 2018 The British Psychological Society.

  7. Evaluation of the risk of perchlorate exposure in a population of late-gestation pregnant women in the United States: Application of probabilistic biologically-based dose response modeling

    Lumen, A; George, N I

    2017-01-01

    The risk of ubiquitous perchlorate exposure and the dose-response on thyroid hormone levels in pregnant women in the United States (U.S.) have yet to be characterized. In the current work, we integrated a previously developed perchlorate submodel into a recently developed population-based pregnancy model to predict reductions in maternal serum free thyroxine (fT4) levels for late-gestation pregnant women in the U.S. Our findings indicated no significant difference in geometric mean estimates of fT4 when perchlorate exposure from food only was compared to no perchlorate exposure. The reduction in maternal fT4 levels reached statistical significance when an added contribution from drinking water (i.e., 15 μg/L, 20 μg/L, or 24.5 μg/L) was assumed in addition to the 90th percentile of food intake for pregnant women (0.198 μg/kg/day). We determined that a daily intake of 0.45 to 0.50 μg/kg/day of perchlorate was necessary to produce results that were significantly different than those obtained from no perchlorate exposure. Adjusting for this food intake dose, the relative source contribution of perchlorate from drinking water (or other non-dietary sources) was estimated to range from 0.25–0.3 μg/kg/day. Assuming a drinking water intake rate of 0.033 L/kg/day, the drinking water concentration allowance for perchlorate equates to 7.6–9.2 μg/L. In summary, we have demonstrated the utility of a probabilistic biologically-based dose-response model for perchlorate risk assessment in a sensitive life-stage at a population level; however, there is a need for continued monitoring in regions of the U.S. where perchlorate exposure may be higher. - Highlights: • Probabilistic risk assessment for perchlorate in U.S. pregnant women was conducted. • No significant change in maternal fT4 predicted due to perchlorate from food alone. • Drinking water concentration allowance for perchlorate estimated as 7.6–9.2 μg/L

  8. Evaluation of the risk of perchlorate exposure in a population of late-gestation pregnant women in the United States: Application of probabilistic biologically-based dose response modeling

    Lumen, A, E-mail: Annie.Lumen@fda.hhs.gov [Division of Biochemical Toxicology, National Center for Toxicological Research, U.S. Food and Drug Administration, 3900 NCTR Rd, HFT-110, Jefferson, AR 72079 (United States); George, N I, E-mail: Nysia.George@fda.hhs.gov [Division of Bioinformatics and Biostatistics, National Center for Toxicological Research, U.S. Food and Drug Administration, 3900 NCTR Rd, HFT-20, Jefferson, AR 72079 (United States)

    2017-05-01

    The risk of ubiquitous perchlorate exposure and the dose-response on thyroid hormone levels in pregnant women in the United States (U.S.) have yet to be characterized. In the current work, we integrated a previously developed perchlorate submodel into a recently developed population-based pregnancy model to predict reductions in maternal serum free thyroxine (fT4) levels for late-gestation pregnant women in the U.S. Our findings indicated no significant difference in geometric mean estimates of fT4 when perchlorate exposure from food only was compared to no perchlorate exposure. The reduction in maternal fT4 levels reached statistical significance when an added contribution from drinking water (i.e., 15 μg/L, 20 μg/L, or 24.5 μg/L) was assumed in addition to the 90th percentile of food intake for pregnant women (0.198 μg/kg/day). We determined that a daily intake of 0.45 to 0.50 μg/kg/day of perchlorate was necessary to produce results that were significantly different than those obtained from no perchlorate exposure. Adjusting for this food intake dose, the relative source contribution of perchlorate from drinking water (or other non-dietary sources) was estimated to range from 0.25–0.3 μg/kg/day. Assuming a drinking water intake rate of 0.033 L/kg/day, the drinking water concentration allowance for perchlorate equates to 7.6–9.2 μg/L. In summary, we have demonstrated the utility of a probabilistic biologically-based dose-response model for perchlorate risk assessment in a sensitive life-stage at a population level; however, there is a need for continued monitoring in regions of the U.S. where perchlorate exposure may be higher. - Highlights: • Probabilistic risk assessment for perchlorate in U.S. pregnant women was conducted. • No significant change in maternal fT4 predicted due to perchlorate from food alone. • Drinking water concentration allowance for perchlorate estimated as 7.6–9.2 μg/L.

  9. Hierarchical Bayes Models for Response Time Data

    Craigmile, Peter F.; Peruggia, Mario; Van Zandt, Trisha

    2010-01-01

    Human response time (RT) data are widely used in experimental psychology to evaluate theories of mental processing. Typically, the data constitute the times taken by a subject to react to a succession of stimuli under varying experimental conditions. Because of the sequential nature of the experiments there are trends (due to learning, fatigue,…

  10. Modelling Flexible Pavement Response and Performance

    Ullidtz, Per

    This textbook is primarily concerned with models for predicting the future condition of flexible pavements, as a function of traffic loading, climate, materials, etc., using analytical-empirical methods.......This textbook is primarily concerned with models for predicting the future condition of flexible pavements, as a function of traffic loading, climate, materials, etc., using analytical-empirical methods....

  11. Integrative modeling of transcriptional regulation in response to antirheumatic therapy

    Thiesen Hans-Juergen

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The investigation of gene regulatory networks is an important issue in molecular systems biology and significant progress has been made by combining different types of biological data. The purpose of this study was to characterize the transcriptional program induced by etanercept therapy in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA. Etanercept is known to reduce disease symptoms and progression in RA, but the underlying molecular mechanisms have not been fully elucidated. Results Using a DNA microarray dataset providing genome-wide expression profiles of 19 RA patients within the first week of therapy we identified significant transcriptional changes in 83 genes. Most of these genes are known to control the human body's immune response. A novel algorithm called TILAR was then applied to construct a linear network model of the genes' regulatory interactions. The inference method derives a model from the data based on the Least Angle Regression while incorporating DNA-binding site information. As a result we obtained a scale-free network that exhibits a self-regulating and highly parallel architecture, and reflects the pleiotropic immunological role of the therapeutic target TNF-alpha. Moreover, we could show that our integrative modeling strategy performs much better than algorithms using gene expression data alone. Conclusion We present TILAR, a method to deduce gene regulatory interactions from gene expression data by integrating information on transcription factor binding sites. The inferred network uncovers gene regulatory effects in response to etanercept and thus provides useful hypotheses about the drug's mechanisms of action.

  12. Classification of scalar and dyadic nonlocal optical response models

    Wubs, Martijn

    2015-01-01

    Nonlocal optical response is one of the emerging effects on the nanoscale for particles made of metals or doped semiconductors. Here we classify and compare both scalar and tensorial nonlocal response models. In the latter case the nonlocality can stem from either the longitudinal response...

  13. A Bivariate Generalized Linear Item Response Theory Modeling Framework to the Analysis of Responses and Response Times.

    Molenaar, Dylan; Tuerlinckx, Francis; van der Maas, Han L J

    2015-01-01

    A generalized linear modeling framework to the analysis of responses and response times is outlined. In this framework, referred to as bivariate generalized linear item response theory (B-GLIRT), separate generalized linear measurement models are specified for the responses and the response times that are subsequently linked by cross-relations. The cross-relations can take various forms. Here, we focus on cross-relations with a linear or interaction term for ability tests, and cross-relations with a curvilinear term for personality tests. In addition, we discuss how popular existing models from the psychometric literature are special cases in the B-GLIRT framework depending on restrictions in the cross-relation. This allows us to compare existing models conceptually and empirically. We discuss various extensions of the traditional models motivated by practical problems. We also illustrate the applicability of our approach using various real data examples, including data on personality and cognitive ability.

  14. Modeling adaptive and non-adaptive responses to environmental change

    Coulson, Tim; Kendall, Bruce E; Barthold, Julia A.

    2017-01-01

    , with plastic responses being either adaptive or non-adaptive. We develop an approach that links quantitative genetic theory with data-driven structured models to allow prediction of population responses to environmental change via plasticity and adaptive evolution. After introducing general new theory, we...... construct a number of example models to demonstrate that evolutionary responses to environmental change over the short-term will be considerably slower than plastic responses, and that the rate of adaptive evolution to a new environment depends upon whether plastic responses are adaptive or non-adaptive....... Parameterization of the models we develop requires information on genetic and phenotypic variation and demography that will not always be available, meaning that simpler models will often be required to predict responses to environmental change. We consequently develop a method to examine whether the full...

  15. Investigating the LGBTQ Responsive Model for Supervision of Group Work

    Luke, Melissa; Goodrich, Kristopher M.

    2013-01-01

    This article reports an investigation of the LGBTQ Responsive Model for Supervision of Group Work, a trans-theoretical supervisory framework to address the needs of lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, and questioning (LGBTQ) persons (Goodrich & Luke, 2011). Findings partially supported applicability of the LGBTQ Responsive Model for Supervision…

  16. Compensatory and non-compensatory multidimensional randomized item response models

    Fox, J.P.; Entink, R.K.; Avetisyan, M.

    2014-01-01

    Randomized response (RR) models are often used for analysing univariate randomized response data and measuring population prevalence of sensitive behaviours. There is much empirical support for the belief that RR methods improve the cooperation of the respondents. Recently, RR models have been

  17. Projective Item Response Model for Test-Independent Measurement

    Ip, Edward Hak-Sing; Chen, Shyh-Huei

    2012-01-01

    The problem of fitting unidimensional item-response models to potentially multidimensional data has been extensively studied. The focus of this article is on response data that contains a major dimension of interest but that may also contain minor nuisance dimensions. Because fitting a unidimensional model to multidimensional data results in…

  18. A Box-Cox normal model for response times

    Klein Entink, R.H.; Fox, J.P.; Linden, W.J. van der

    2009-01-01

    The log-transform has been a convenient choice in response time modelling on test items. However, motivated by a dataset of the Medical College Admission Test where the lognormal model violated the normality assumption, the possibilities of the broader class of Box–Cox transformations for response

  19. Damage identification in beams by a response surface based technique

    Teidj S.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In this work, identification of damage in uniform homogeneous metallic beams was considered through the propagation of non dispersive elastic torsional waves. The proposed damage detection procedure consisted of the following sequence. Giving a localized torque excitation, having the form of a short half-sine pulse, the first step was calculating the transient solution of the resulting torsional wave. This torque could be generated in practice by means of asymmetric laser irradiation of the beam surface. Then, a localized defect assumed to be characterized by an abrupt reduction of beam section area with a given height and extent was placed at a known location of the beam. Next, the response in terms of transverse section rotation rate was obtained for a point situated afterwards the defect, where the sensor was positioned. This last could utilize in practice the concept of laser vibrometry. A parametric study has been conducted after that by using a full factorial design of experiments table and numerical simulations based on a finite difference characteristic scheme. This has enabled the derivation of a response surface model that was shown to represent adequately the response of the system in terms of the following factors: defect extent and severity. The final step was performing the inverse problem solution in order to identify the defect characteristics by using measurement.

  20. TESS-based dose-response using pediatric clonidine exposures

    Benson, Blaine E.; Spyker, Daniel A.; Troutman, William G.; Watson, William A.

    2006-01-01

    Objective: The toxic and lethal doses of clonidine in children are unclear. This study was designed to determine whether data from the American Association of Poison Control Centers Toxic Exposure Surveillance System (TESS) could be utilized to determine a dose-response relationship for pediatric clonidine exposure. Methods: 3458 single-substance clonidine exposures in children <6 years of age reported to TESS from January 2000 through December 2003 were examined. Dose ingested, age, and medical outcome were available for 1550 cases. Respiratory arrest cases (n = 8) were classified as the most severe of the medical outcome categories (Arrest, Major, Moderate, Mild, and No effect). Exposures reported as a 'taste or lick' (n = 51) were included as a dose of 1/10 of the dosage form involved. Dose ranged from 0.4 to 1980 (median 13) μg/kg. Weight was imputed based on a quadratic estimate of weight for age. Dose certainty was coded as exact (26% of cases) or not exact (74%). Medical outcome (response) was examined via logistic regression using SAS JMP (release 5.1). Results: The logistic model describing medical outcome (P < 0.0001) included Log dose/kg (P 0.0000) and Certainty (P = 0.045). Conclusion: TESS data can provide the basis for a statistically sound description of dose-response for pediatric clonidine poisoning exposures

  1. TESS-based dose-response using pediatric clonidine exposures.

    Benson, Blaine E; Spyker, Daniel A; Troutman, William G; Watson, William A

    2006-06-01

    The toxic and lethal doses of clonidine in children are unclear. This study was designed to determine whether data from the American Association of Poison Control Centers Toxic Exposure Surveillance System (TESS) could be utilized to determine a dose-response relationship for pediatric clonidine exposure. 3,458 single-substance clonidine exposures in children TESS from January 2000 through December 2003 were examined. Dose ingested, age, and medical outcome were available for 1550 cases. Respiratory arrest cases (n = 8) were classified as the most severe of the medical outcome categories (Arrest, Major, Moderate, Mild, and No effect). Exposures reported as a "taste or lick" (n = 51) were included as a dose of 1/10 of the dosage form involved. Dose ranged from 0.4 to 1980 (median 13) microg/kg. Weight was imputed based on a quadratic estimate of weight for age. Dose certainty was coded as exact (26% of cases) or not exact (74%). Medical outcome (response) was examined via logistic regression using SAS JMP (release 5.1). The logistic model describing medical outcome (P TESS data can provide the basis for a statistically sound description of dose-response for pediatric clonidine poisoning exposures.

  2. Rational Design of Glucose-Responsive Insulin Using Pharmacokinetic Modeling.

    Bakh, Naveed A; Bisker, Gili; Lee, Michael A; Gong, Xun; Strano, Michael S

    2017-11-01

    A glucose responsive insulin (GRI) is a therapeutic that modulates its potency, concentration, or dosing of insulin in relation to a patient's dynamic glucose concentration, thereby approximating aspects of a normally functioning pancreas. Current GRI design lacks a theoretical basis on which to base fundamental design parameters such as glucose reactivity, dissociation constant or potency, and in vivo efficacy. In this work, an approach to mathematically model the relevant parameter space for effective GRIs is induced, and design rules for linking GRI performance to therapeutic benefit are developed. Well-developed pharmacokinetic models of human glucose and insulin metabolism coupled to a kinetic model representation of a freely circulating GRI are used to determine the desired kinetic parameters and dosing for optimal glycemic control. The model examines a subcutaneous dose of GRI with kinetic parameters in an optimal range that results in successful glycemic control within prescribed constraints over a 24 h period. Additionally, it is demonstrated that the modeling approach can find GRI parameters that enable stable glucose levels that persist through a skipped meal. The results provide a framework for exploring the parameter space of GRIs, potentially without extensive, iterative in vivo animal testing. © 2017 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  3. Aquatic emergency response model at the Savannah River Plant

    Hayes, D.W.

    1987-01-01

    The Savannah River Plant emergency response plans include a stream/river emergency response model to predict travel times, maximum concentrations, and concentration distributions as a function of time at selected downstream/river locations from each of the major SRP installations. The menu driven model can be operated from any of the terminals that are linked to the real-time computer monitoring system for emergency response

  4. Computer Modeling of Thoracic Response to Blast

    1988-01-01

    be solved at reasonable cost. intrathoracic pressure responses for subjects wearing In order to determine if the gas content of the sheep ballistic...spatial and temporal ries were compared with data. Two extreme cases had distribution of the load can be reasonably predicted by the rumen filled with...to the ap- is that sheep have large, multiple stomachs that have a proximate location where intrathoracic pressure meas- considerable air content . It

  5. Humidity Response of Polyaniline Based Sensor

    Mamta PANDEY

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract: This paper presents hitherto unreported humidity sensing capacity of emeraldine salt form of polyaniline. Humidity plays a major role in different processes in industries ranging from food to electronic goods besides human comfort and therefore its monitoring is an essential requirement during various processes. Polyaniline has a wide use for making sensors as it can be easily synthesized and has long stability. Polyaniline is synthesized here by chemical route and is found to sense humidity as it shows variation in electrical resistance with variation in relative humidity. Results are presented here for a range of 15 to 90 RH%. The resistance falls from 5.8 to 0.72 Giga ohms as RH varies from 15 to 65 % and then falls to 13.9 Mega ohms as RH approaches 90 %. The response and recovery times are also measured.

  6. Incorporating Response Times in Item Response Theory Models of Reading Comprehension Fluency

    Su, Shiyang

    2017-01-01

    With the online assessment becoming mainstream and the recording of response times becoming straightforward, the importance of response times as a measure of psychological constructs has been recognized and the literature of modeling times has been growing during the last few decades. Previous studies have tried to formulate models and theories to…

  7. Plasma equilibrium response modelling and validation on JT-60U

    Lister, J.B.; Sharma, A.; Limebeer, D.J.N.; Wainwright, J.P.; Nakamura, Y.; Yoshino, R.

    2002-01-01

    A systematic procedure to identify the plasma equilibrium response to the poloidal field coil voltages has been applied to the JT-60U tokamak. The required response was predicted with a high accuracy by a state-space model derived from first principles. The ab initio derivation of linearized plasma equilibrium response models is re-examined using an approach standard in analytical mechanics. A symmetric formulation is naturally obtained, removing a previous weakness in such models. RZIP, a rigid current distribution model, is re-derived using this approach and is compared with the new experimental plasma equilibrium response data obtained from Ohmic and neutral beam injection discharges in the JT-60U tokamak. In order to remove any bias from the comparison between modelled and measured plasma responses, the electromagnetic response model without plasma was first carefully tuned against experimental data, using a parametric approach, for which different cost functions for quantifying model agreement were explored. This approach additionally provides new indications of the accuracy to which various plasma parameters are known, and to the ordering of physical effects. Having taken these precautions when tuning the plasmaless model, an empirical estimate of the plasma self-inductance, the plasma resistance and its radial derivative could be established and compared with initial assumptions. Off-line tuning of the JT-60U controller is presented as an example of the improvements which might be obtained by using such a model of the plasma equilibrium response. (author)

  8. Oil spill models for emergency response

    Hodgins, D.O.

    1997-01-01

    The need for, and the nature of an oil spill model, were discussed. Modern oil spill models were shown to provide rapid and accurate input of information about a marine spill, as well as to provide powerful visualization methods for displaying output data. Marine oil spill models are designed to answer five questions: (1) where will the oil go in 2, 3, 6, 12, and 24 hours, (2) how fast will it move, (3) how big will the slick get, (4) how much will end up on shore and where, and (5) how do the oil properties change. The models are able to provide timely and accurate results by using reasonably complete algorithms for the physics and chemistry governing oil slick evolution that take advantage of computer visualization methods for displaying output data. These models have been made possible through new technologies which have increased access to environmental data on winds, currents and satellite imaging of slicks. Spill modelling is also evolving by taking advantage of the Internet for both acquisition of input data and dissemination of results. 5 figs

  9. An Immune-inspired Adaptive Automated Intrusion Response System Model

    Ling-xi Peng

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available An immune-inspired adaptive automated intrusion response system model, named as , is proposed. The descriptions of self, non-self, immunocyte, memory detector, mature detector and immature detector of the network transactions, and the realtime network danger evaluation equations are given. Then, the automated response polices are adaptively performed or adjusted according to the realtime network danger. Thus, not only accurately evaluates the network attacks, but also greatly reduces the response times and response costs.

  10. Issues in practical model-based diagnosis

    Bakker, R.R.; Bakker, R.R.; van den Bempt, P.C.A.; van den Bempt, P.C.A.; Mars, Nicolaas; Out, D.-J.; Out, D.J.; van Soest, D.C.; van Soes, D.C.

    1993-01-01

    The model-based diagnosis project at the University of Twente has been directed at improving the practical usefulness of model-based diagnosis. In cooperation with industrial partners, the research addressed the modeling problem and the efficiency problem in model-based reasoning. Main results of

  11. [Unfolding item response model using best-worst scaling].

    Ikehara, Kazuya

    2015-02-01

    In attitude measurement and sensory tests, the unfolding model is typically used. In this model, response probability is formulated by the distance between the person and the stimulus. In this study, we proposed an unfolding item response model using best-worst scaling (BWU model), in which a person chooses the best and worst stimulus among repeatedly presented subsets of stimuli. We also formulated an unfolding model using best scaling (BU model), and compared the accuracy of estimates between the BU and BWU models. A simulation experiment showed that the BWU modell performed much better than the BU model in terms of bias and root mean square errors of estimates. With reference to Usami (2011), the proposed models were apllied to actual data to measure attitudes toward tardiness. Results indicated high similarity between stimuli estimates generated with the proposed models and those of Usami (2011).

  12. 3-D seismic response of a base-isolated fast reactor

    Kitamura, S.; Morishita, M.; Iwata, K.

    1992-01-01

    This paper describes a 3-D response analysis methodology development and its application to a base-isolated fast breeder reactor (FBR) plant. At first, studies on application of a base-isolation system to an FBR plant were performed to identify a range of appropriate characteristics of the system. A response analysis method was developed based on mathematical models for the restoring force characteristics of several types of the systems. A series of shaking table tests using a small scale model was carried out to verify the analysis method. A good agreement was seen between the test and analysis results in terms of the horizontal and vertical responses. Parametric studies were then made to assess the effects of various factors which might be influential to the seismic response of the system. Moreover, the method was applied to evaluate three-dimensional response of the base-isolated FBR. (author)

  13. Model Based Autonomy for Robust Mars Operations

    Kurien, James A.; Nayak, P. Pandurang; Williams, Brian C.; Lau, Sonie (Technical Monitor)

    1998-01-01

    Space missions have historically relied upon a large ground staff, numbering in the hundreds for complex missions, to maintain routine operations. When an anomaly occurs, this small army of engineers attempts to identify and work around the problem. A piloted Mars mission, with its multiyear duration, cost pressures, half-hour communication delays and two-week blackouts cannot be closely controlled by a battalion of engineers on Earth. Flight crew involvement in routine system operations must also be minimized to maximize science return. It also may be unrealistic to require the crew have the expertise in each mission subsystem needed to diagnose a system failure and effect a timely repair, as engineers did for Apollo 13. Enter model-based autonomy, which allows complex systems to autonomously maintain operation despite failures or anomalous conditions, contributing to safe, robust, and minimally supervised operation of spacecraft, life support, In Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) and power systems. Autonomous reasoning is central to the approach. A reasoning algorithm uses a logical or mathematical model of a system to infer how to operate the system, diagnose failures and generate appropriate behavior to repair or reconfigure the system in response. The 'plug and play' nature of the models enables low cost development of autonomy for multiple platforms. Declarative, reusable models capture relevant aspects of the behavior of simple devices (e.g. valves or thrusters). Reasoning algorithms combine device models to create a model of the system-wide interactions and behavior of a complex, unique artifact such as a spacecraft. Rather than requiring engineers to all possible interactions and failures at design time or perform analysis during the mission, the reasoning engine generates the appropriate response to the current situation, taking into account its system-wide knowledge, the current state, and even sensor failures or unexpected behavior.

  14. INDIVIDUAL BASED MODELLING APPROACH TO THERMAL ...

    Diadromous fish populations in the Pacific Northwest face challenges along their migratory routes from declining habitat quality, harvest, and barriers to longitudinal connectivity. Changes in river temperature regimes are producing an additional challenge for upstream migrating adult salmon and steelhead, species that are sensitive to absolute and cumulative thermal exposure. Adult salmon populations have been shown to utilize cold water patches along migration routes when mainstem river temperatures exceed thermal optimums. We are employing an individual based model (IBM) to explore the costs and benefits of spatially-distributed cold water refugia for adult migrating salmon. Our model, developed in the HexSim platform, is built around a mechanistic behavioral decision tree that drives individual interactions with their spatially explicit simulated environment. Population-scale responses to dynamic thermal regimes, coupled with other stressors such as disease and harvest, become emergent properties of the spatial IBM. Other model outputs include arrival times, species-specific survival rates, body energetic content, and reproductive fitness levels. Here, we discuss the challenges associated with parameterizing an individual based model of salmon and steelhead in a section of the Columbia River. Many rivers and streams in the Pacific Northwest are currently listed as impaired under the Clean Water Act as a result of high summer water temperatures. Adverse effec

  15. Numerical Modeling of Ophthalmic Response to Space

    Nelson, E. S.; Myers, J. G.; Mulugeta, L.; Vera, J.; Raykin, J.; Feola, A.; Gleason, R.; Samuels, B.; Ethier, C. R.

    2015-01-01

    To investigate ophthalmic changes in spaceflight, we would like to predict the impact of blood dysregulation and elevated intracranial pressure (ICP) on Intraocular Pressure (IOP). Unlike other physiological systems, there are very few lumped parameter models of the eye. The eye model described here is novel in its inclusion of the human choroid and retrobulbar subarachnoid space (rSAS), which are key elements in investigating the impact of increased ICP and ocular blood volume. Some ingenuity was required in modeling the blood and rSAS compartments due to the lack of quantitative data on essential hydrodynamic quantities, such as net choroidal volume and blood flowrate, inlet and exit pressures, and material properties, such as compliances between compartments.

  16. Bayesian Analysis of Multidimensional Item Response Theory Models: A Discussion and Illustration of Three Response Style Models

    Leventhal, Brian C.; Stone, Clement A.

    2018-01-01

    Interest in Bayesian analysis of item response theory (IRT) models has grown tremendously due to the appeal of the paradigm among psychometricians, advantages of these methods when analyzing complex models, and availability of general-purpose software. Possible models include models which reflect multidimensionality due to designed test structure,…

  17. Phase response curves for models of earthquake fault dynamics

    Franović, Igor, E-mail: franovic@ipb.ac.rs [Scientific Computing Laboratory, Institute of Physics Belgrade, University of Belgrade, Pregrevica 118, 11080 Belgrade (Serbia); Kostić, Srdjan [Institute for the Development of Water Resources “Jaroslav Černi,” Jaroslava Černog 80, 11226 Belgrade (Serbia); Perc, Matjaž [Faculty of Natural Sciences and Mathematics, University of Maribor, Koroška cesta 160, SI-2000 Maribor (Slovenia); CAMTP—Center for Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, University of Maribor, Krekova 2, SI-2000 Maribor (Slovenia); Klinshov, Vladimir [Institute of Applied Physics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 46 Ulyanov Street, 603950 Nizhny Novgorod (Russian Federation); Nekorkin, Vladimir [Institute of Applied Physics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 46 Ulyanov Street, 603950 Nizhny Novgorod (Russian Federation); University of Nizhny Novgorod, 23 Prospekt Gagarina, 603950 Nizhny Novgorod (Russian Federation); Kurths, Jürgen [Institute of Applied Physics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 46 Ulyanov Street, 603950 Nizhny Novgorod (Russian Federation); Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14412 Potsdam (Germany); Institute of Physics, Humboldt University Berlin, 12489 Berlin (Germany)

    2016-06-15

    We systematically study effects of external perturbations on models describing earthquake fault dynamics. The latter are based on the framework of the Burridge-Knopoff spring-block system, including the cases of a simple mono-block fault, as well as the paradigmatic complex faults made up of two identical or distinct blocks. The blocks exhibit relaxation oscillations, which are representative for the stick-slip behavior typical for earthquake dynamics. Our analysis is carried out by determining the phase response curves of first and second order. For a mono-block fault, we consider the impact of a single and two successive pulse perturbations, further demonstrating how the profile of phase response curves depends on the fault parameters. For a homogeneous two-block fault, our focus is on the scenario where each of the blocks is influenced by a single pulse, whereas for heterogeneous faults, we analyze how the response of the system depends on whether the stimulus is applied to the block having a shorter or a longer oscillation period.

  18. Phase response curves for models of earthquake fault dynamics

    Franović, Igor; Kostić, Srdjan; Perc, Matjaž; Klinshov, Vladimir; Nekorkin, Vladimir; Kurths, Jürgen

    2016-01-01

    We systematically study effects of external perturbations on models describing earthquake fault dynamics. The latter are based on the framework of the Burridge-Knopoff spring-block system, including the cases of a simple mono-block fault, as well as the paradigmatic complex faults made up of two identical or distinct blocks. The blocks exhibit relaxation oscillations, which are representative for the stick-slip behavior typical for earthquake dynamics. Our analysis is carried out by determining the phase response curves of first and second order. For a mono-block fault, we consider the impact of a single and two successive pulse perturbations, further demonstrating how the profile of phase response curves depends on the fault parameters. For a homogeneous two-block fault, our focus is on the scenario where each of the blocks is influenced by a single pulse, whereas for heterogeneous faults, we analyze how the response of the system depends on whether the stimulus is applied to the block having a shorter or a longer oscillation period.

  19. Categorical regression dose-response modeling

    The goal of this training is to provide participants with training on the use of the U.S. EPA’s Categorical Regression soft¬ware (CatReg) and its application to risk assessment. Categorical regression fits mathematical models to toxicity data that have been assigned ord...

  20. Stochastic Load Models and Footbridge Response

    Pedersen, Lars; Frier, Christian

    2015-01-01

    Pedestrians may cause vibrations in footbridges and these vibrations may potentially be annoying. This calls for predictions of footbridge vibration levels and the paper considers a stochastic approach to modeling the action of pedestrians assuming walking parameters such as step frequency, pedes...

  1. Analysis of security protocols based on challenge-response

    LUO JunZhou; YANG Ming

    2007-01-01

    Security protocol is specified as the procedure of challenge-response, which uses applied cryptography to confirm the existence of other principals and fulfill some data negotiation such as session keys. Most of the existing analysis methods,which either adopt theorem proving techniques such as state exploration or logic reasoning techniques such as authentication logic, face the conflicts between analysis power and operability. To solve the problem, a new efficient method is proposed that provides SSM semantics-based definition of secrecy and authentication goals and applies authentication logic as fundamental analysis techniques,in which secrecy analysis is split into two parts: Explicit-Information-Leakage and Implicit-Information-Leakage, and correspondence analysis is concluded as the analysis of the existence relationship of Strands and the agreement of Strand parameters. This new method owns both the power of the Strand Space Model and concision of authentication logic.

  2. Modeling and non-linear responses of MEMS capacitive accelerometer

    Sri Harsha C.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available A theoretical investigation of an electrically actuated beam has been illustrated when the electrostatic-ally actuated micro-cantilever beam is separated from the electrode by a moderately large gap for two distinct types of geometric configurations of MEMS accelerometer. Higher order nonlinear terms have been taken into account for studying the pull in voltage analysis. A nonlinear model of gas film squeezing damping, another source of nonlinearity in MEMS devices is included in obtaining the dynamic responses. Moreover, in the present work, the possible source of nonlinearities while formulating the mathematical model of a MEMS accelerometer and their influences on the dynamic responses have been investigated. The theoretical results obtained by using MATLAB has been verified with the results obtained in FE software and has been found in good agreement. Criterion towards stable micro size accelerometer for each configuration has been investigated. This investigation clearly provides an understanding of nonlinear static and dynamics characteristics of electrostatically micro cantilever based device in MEMS.

  3. Sensor-based interior modeling

    Herbert, M.; Hoffman, R.; Johnson, A.; Osborn, J.

    1995-01-01

    Robots and remote systems will play crucial roles in future decontamination and decommissioning (D ampersand D) of nuclear facilities. Many of these facilities, such as uranium enrichment plants, weapons assembly plants, research and production reactors, and fuel recycling facilities, are dormant; there is also an increasing number of commercial reactors whose useful lifetime is nearly over. To reduce worker exposure to radiation, occupational and other hazards associated with D ampersand D tasks, robots will execute much of the work agenda. Traditional teleoperated systems rely on human understanding (based on information gathered by remote viewing cameras) of the work environment to safely control the remote equipment. However, removing the operator from the work site substantially reduces his efficiency and effectiveness. To approach the productivity of a human worker, tasks will be performed telerobotically, in which many aspects of task execution are delegated to robot controllers and other software. This paper describes a system that semi-automatically builds a virtual world for remote D ampersand D operations by constructing 3-D models of a robot's work environment. Planar and quadric surface representations of objects typically found in nuclear facilities are generated from laser rangefinder data with a minimum of human interaction. The surface representations are then incorporated into a task space model that can be viewed and analyzed by the operator, accessed by motion planning and robot safeguarding algorithms, and ultimately used by the operator to instruct the robot at a level much higher than teleoperation

  4. Frequency Response Function Based Damage Identification for Aerospace Structures

    Oliver, Joseph Acton

    Structural health monitoring technologies continue to be pursued for aerospace structures in the interests of increased safety and, when combined with health prognosis, efficiency in life-cycle management. The current dissertation develops and validates damage identification technology as a critical component for structural health monitoring of aerospace structures and, in particular, composite unmanned aerial vehicles. The primary innovation is a statistical least-squares damage identification algorithm based in concepts of parameter estimation and model update. The algorithm uses frequency response function based residual force vectors derived from distributed vibration measurements to update a structural finite element model through statistically weighted least-squares minimization producing location and quantification of the damage, estimation uncertainty, and an updated model. Advantages compared to other approaches include robust applicability to systems which are heavily damped, large, and noisy, with a relatively low number of distributed measurement points compared to the number of analytical degrees-of-freedom of an associated analytical structural model (e.g., modal finite element model). Motivation, research objectives, and a dissertation summary are discussed in Chapter 1 followed by a literature review in Chapter 2. Chapter 3 gives background theory and the damage identification algorithm derivation followed by a study of fundamental algorithm behavior on a two degree-of-freedom mass-spring system with generalized damping. Chapter 4 investigates the impact of noise then successfully proves the algorithm against competing methods using an analytical eight degree-of-freedom mass-spring system with non-proportional structural damping. Chapter 5 extends use of the algorithm to finite element models, including solutions for numerical issues, approaches for modeling damping approximately in reduced coordinates, and analytical validation using a composite

  5. A model-based risk management framework

    Gran, Bjoern Axel; Fredriksen, Rune

    2002-08-15

    The ongoing research activity addresses these issues through two co-operative activities. The first is the IST funded research project CORAS, where Institutt for energiteknikk takes part as responsible for the work package for Risk Analysis. The main objective of the CORAS project is to develop a framework to support risk assessment of security critical systems. The second, called the Halden Open Dependability Demonstrator (HODD), is established in cooperation between Oestfold University College, local companies and HRP. The objective of HODD is to provide an open-source test bed for testing, teaching and learning about risk analysis methods, risk analysis tools, and fault tolerance techniques. The Inverted Pendulum Control System (IPCON), which main task is to keep a pendulum balanced and controlled, is the first system that has been established. In order to make risk assessment one need to know what a system does, or is intended to do. Furthermore, the risk assessment requires correct descriptions of the system, its context and all relevant features. A basic assumption is that a precise model of this knowledge, based on formal or semi-formal descriptions, such as UML, will facilitate a systematic risk assessment. It is also necessary to have a framework to integrate the different risk assessment methods. The experiences so far support this hypothesis. This report presents CORAS and the CORAS model-based risk management framework, including a preliminary guideline for model-based risk assessment. The CORAS framework for model-based risk analysis offers a structured and systematic approach to identify and assess security issues of ICT systems. From the initial assessment of IPCON, we also believe that the framework is applicable in a safety context. Further work on IPCON, as well as the experiences from the CORAS trials, will provide insight and feedback for further improvements. (Author)

  6. Modeling of concrete response at high temperature

    Pfeiffer, P.; Marchertas, A.

    1984-01-01

    A rate-type creep law is implemented into the computer code TEMP-STRESS for high temperature concrete analysis. The disposition of temperature, pore pressure and moisture for the particular structure in question is provided as input for the thermo-mechanical code. The loss of moisture from concrete also induces material shrinkage which is accounted for in the analytical model. Examples are given to illustrate the numerical results

  7. Environmentally responsible behavior of nature-based tourists: A review

    Lee, T.H.

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available This study assesses the conceptualization of environmentally responsible behavior and methods for measuring such behavior based on a review of previous studies. Four major scales for the extent to which an individual’s behavior is responsible behavior are discussed. Various theoretical backgrounds and cultures provide diverse conceptualizations of environmentally responsible behavior. Both general and site-specific environmentally responsible behavior has been identified in the past studies. This study also discusses the precedents of environmentally responsible behavior and with a general overview; it provides insight into improving future research on this subject.

  8. Differential Geometry Based Multiscale Models

    Wei, Guo-Wei

    2010-01-01

    Large chemical and biological systems such as fuel cells, ion channels, molecular motors, and viruses are of great importance to the scientific community and public health. Typically, these complex systems in conjunction with their aquatic environment pose a fabulous challenge to theoretical description, simulation, and prediction. In this work, we propose a differential geometry based multiscale paradigm to model complex macromolecular systems, and to put macroscopic and microscopic descriptions on an equal footing. In our approach, the differential geometry theory of surfaces and geometric measure theory are employed as a natural means to couple the macroscopic continuum mechanical description of the aquatic environment with the microscopic discrete atom-istic description of the macromolecule. Multiscale free energy functionals, or multiscale action functionals are constructed as a unified framework to derive the governing equations for the dynamics of different scales and different descriptions. Two types of aqueous macromolecular complexes, ones that are near equilibrium and others that are far from equilibrium, are considered in our formulations. We show that generalized Navier–Stokes equations for the fluid dynamics, generalized Poisson equations or generalized Poisson–Boltzmann equations for electrostatic interactions, and Newton's equation for the molecular dynamics can be derived by the least action principle. These equations are coupled through the continuum-discrete interface whose dynamics is governed by potential driven geometric flows. Comparison is given to classical descriptions of the fluid and electrostatic interactions without geometric flow based micro-macro interfaces. The detailed balance of forces is emphasized in the present work. We further extend the proposed multiscale paradigm to micro-macro analysis of electrohydrodynamics, electrophoresis, fuel cells, and ion channels. We derive generalized Poisson–Nernst–Planck equations that

  9. Differential geometry based multiscale models.

    Wei, Guo-Wei

    2010-08-01

    Large chemical and biological systems such as fuel cells, ion channels, molecular motors, and viruses are of great importance to the scientific community and public health. Typically, these complex systems in conjunction with their aquatic environment pose a fabulous challenge to theoretical description, simulation, and prediction. In this work, we propose a differential geometry based multiscale paradigm to model complex macromolecular systems, and to put macroscopic and microscopic descriptions on an equal footing. In our approach, the differential geometry theory of surfaces and geometric measure theory are employed as a natural means to couple the macroscopic continuum mechanical description of the aquatic environment with the microscopic discrete atomistic description of the macromolecule. Multiscale free energy functionals, or multiscale action functionals are constructed as a unified framework to derive the governing equations for the dynamics of different scales and different descriptions. Two types of aqueous macromolecular complexes, ones that are near equilibrium and others that are far from equilibrium, are considered in our formulations. We show that generalized Navier-Stokes equations for the fluid dynamics, generalized Poisson equations or generalized Poisson-Boltzmann equations for electrostatic interactions, and Newton's equation for the molecular dynamics can be derived by the least action principle. These equations are coupled through the continuum-discrete interface whose dynamics is governed by potential driven geometric flows. Comparison is given to classical descriptions of the fluid and electrostatic interactions without geometric flow based micro-macro interfaces. The detailed balance of forces is emphasized in the present work. We further extend the proposed multiscale paradigm to micro-macro analysis of electrohydrodynamics, electrophoresis, fuel cells, and ion channels. We derive generalized Poisson-Nernst-Planck equations that are

  10. Model based design of electronic throttle control

    Cherian, Fenin; Ranjan, Ashish; Bhowmick, Pathikrit; Rammohan, A.

    2017-11-01

    With the advent of torque based Engine Management Systems, the precise control and robust performance of the throttle body becomes a key factor in the overall performance of the vehicle. Electronic Throttle Control provides benefits such as improved air-fuel ratio for improving the vehicle performance and lower exhausts emissions to meet the stringent emission norms. Modern vehicles facilitate various features such as Cruise Control, Traction Control, Electronic Stability Program and Pre-crash systems. These systems require control over engine power without driver intervention, which is not possible with conventional mechanical throttle system. Thus these systems are integrated to function with the electronic throttle control. However, due to inherent non-linearities in the throttle body, the control becomes a difficult task. In order to eliminate the influence of this hysteresis at the initial operation of the butterfly valve, a control to compensate the shortage must be added to the duty required for starting throttle operation when the initial operation is detected. Therefore, a lot of work is being done in this field to incorporate the various nonlinearities to achieve robust control. In our present work, the ETB was tested to verify the working of the system. Calibration of the TPS sensors was carried out in order to acquire accurate throttle opening angle. The response of the calibrated system was then plotted against a step input signal. A linear model of the ETB was prepared using Simulink and its response was compared with the experimental data to find out the initial deviation of the model from the actual system. To reduce this deviation, non-linearities from existing literature were introduced to the system and a response analysis was performed to check the deviation from the actual system. Based on this investigation, an introduction of a new nonlinearity parameter can be used in future to reduce the deviation further making the control of the ETB more

  11. Functionally unidimensional item response models for multivariate binary data

    Ip, Edward; Molenberghs, Geert; Chen, Shyh-Huei

    2013-01-01

    The problem of fitting unidimensional item response models to potentially multidimensional data has been extensively studied. The focus of this article is on response data that have a strong dimension but also contain minor nuisance dimensions. Fitting a unidimensional model to such multidimensio......The problem of fitting unidimensional item response models to potentially multidimensional data has been extensively studied. The focus of this article is on response data that have a strong dimension but also contain minor nuisance dimensions. Fitting a unidimensional model...... to such multidimensional data is believed to result in ability estimates that represent a combination of the major and minor dimensions. We conjecture that the underlying dimension for the fitted unidimensional model, which we call the functional dimension, represents a nonlinear projection. In this article we investigate...... tool. An example regarding a construct of desire for physical competency is used to illustrate the functional unidimensional approach....

  12. Bayesian Dimensionality Assessment for the Multidimensional Nominal Response Model

    Javier Revuelta

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available This article introduces Bayesian estimation and evaluation procedures for the multidimensional nominal response model. The utility of this model is to perform a nominal factor analysis of items that consist of a finite number of unordered response categories. The key aspect of the model, in comparison with traditional factorial model, is that there is a slope for each response category on the latent dimensions, instead of having slopes associated to the items. The extended parameterization of the multidimensional nominal response model requires large samples for estimation. When sample size is of a moderate or small size, some of these parameters may be weakly empirically identifiable and the estimation algorithm may run into difficulties. We propose a Bayesian MCMC inferential algorithm to estimate the parameters and the number of dimensions underlying the multidimensional nominal response model. Two Bayesian approaches to model evaluation were compared: discrepancy statistics (DIC, WAICC, and LOO that provide an indication of the relative merit of different models, and the standardized generalized discrepancy measure that requires resampling data and is computationally more involved. A simulation study was conducted to compare these two approaches, and the results show that the standardized generalized discrepancy measure can be used to reliably estimate the dimensionality of the model whereas the discrepancy statistics are questionable. The paper also includes an example with real data in the context of learning styles, in which the model is used to conduct an exploratory factor analysis of nominal data.

  13. Leveraging First Response Time into the Knowledge Tracing Model

    Wang, Yutao; Heffernan, Neil T.

    2012-01-01

    The field of educational data mining has been using the Knowledge Tracing model, which only look at the correctness of student first response, for tracking student knowledge. Recently, lots of other features are studied to extend the Knowledge Tracing model to better model student knowledge. The goal of this paper is to analyze whether or not the…

  14. Response spectrum analysis of a stochastic seismic model

    Kimura, Koji; Sakata, Masaru; Takemoto, Shinichiro.

    1990-01-01

    The stochastic response spectrum approach is presented for predicting the dynamic behavior of structures to earthquake excitation expressed by a random process, one of whose sample functions can be regarded as a recorded strong-motion earthquake accelerogram. The approach consists of modeling recorded ground motion by a random process and the root-mean-square response (rms) analysis of a single-degree-of-freedom system by using the moment equations method. The stochastic response spectrum is obtained as a plot of the maximum rms response versus the natural period of the system and is compared with the conventional response spectrum. (author)

  15. Modelling cladding response to changing conditions

    Tulkki, Ville; Ikonen, Timo [VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland ltd (Finland)

    2016-11-15

    The cladding of the nuclear fuel is subjected to varying conditions during fuel reactor life. Load drops and reversals can be modelled by taking cladding viscoelastic behaviour into account. Viscoelastic contribution to the deformation of metals is usually considered small enough to be ignored, and in many applications it merely contributes to the primary part of the creep curve. With nuclear fuel cladding the high temperature and irradiation as well as the need to analyse the variable load all emphasise the need to also inspect the viscoelasticity of the cladding.

  16. Development of a model to assess orthostatic responses

    Rubin, Marilyn

    1993-01-01

    A major change for crewmembers during weightlessness in microgravity is the redistribution of body fluids from the legs into the abdomen, thorax, and head. The fluids continue to be sequestered in these areas throughout the flight. Upon reentry into gravity on landing, these same body fluids are displaced again to their normal locations, however, not without hazardous incidence to the crewmembers. The problem remains that upon landing, crewmembers are subject to orthostasis, that is, the blood flowing into the legs reduces the blood supply to the brain and may result in the crewmember fainting. The purpose of this study was to develop a model of testing orthostatic responses of blood pressure regulating mechanisms of the cardiovascular system, when challenged, to maintain blood pressure to the brain. To accomplish this, subjects' responses were assessed as they proceeded from the supine position of progressive head-up tilt positions of 30 deg, 60 deg, and 90 deg angles. A convenience sample consisted of 21 subjects, females (N=11) and males (N=10), selected from a list of potential subjects available through the NASA subject screening office. The methodology included all non-invasive measurements of blood pressure, heart rate, echocardiograms, cardiac output, cardiac stroke volume, fluid shifts in the thorax, ventricular ejection and velocity times, and skin blood perfusion. The Fischer statistical analysis was done of all data with the significance level at .05. Significant differences were demonstrated in many instances of changes of posture for all variables. Based on the significance of the findings of this study, this model for assessing orthostatic responses does provide an adequate challenge to the blood pressure regulatory systems. While individuals may use different adaptations to incremental changes in gravity, the subjects, in aggregate, demonstrated significant adaptive cardiovascular changes to orthostatic challenges which were presented to them.

  17. A Judgement-Based Model of Workplace Learning

    Athanasou, James A.

    2004-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to outline a judgement-based model of adult learning. This approach is set out as a Perceptual-Judgemental-Reinforcement approach to social learning under conditions of complexity and where there is no single, clearly identified correct response. The model builds upon the Hager-Halliday thesis of workplace learning and…

  18. A Memory-Based Model of Hick's Law

    Schneider, Darryl W.; Anderson, John R.

    2011-01-01

    We propose and evaluate a memory-based model of Hick's law, the approximately linear increase in choice reaction time with the logarithm of set size (the number of stimulus-response alternatives). According to the model, Hick's law reflects a combination of associative interference during retrieval from declarative memory and occasional savings…

  19. Towards longitudinal activity-based models of travel demand

    Arentze, T.A.; Timmermans, H.J.P.; Lo, H.P.; Leung, Stephen C.H.; Tan, Susanna M.L.

    2008-01-01

    Existing activity-based models of travel demand consider a day as the time unit of observation and predict activity patterns of inhviduals for a typical or average day. In this study we argue that the use of a time span of one day severely limits the ability of the models to predict responsive

  20. Observation-Based Modeling for Model-Based Testing

    Kanstrén, T.; Piel, E.; Gross, H.G.

    2009-01-01

    One of the single most important reasons that modeling and modelbased testing are not yet common practice in industry is the perceived difficulty of making the models up to the level of detail and quality required for their automated processing. Models unleash their full potential only through

  1. Modeling exposure–lag–response associations with distributed lag non-linear models

    Gasparrini, Antonio

    2014-01-01

    In biomedical research, a health effect is frequently associated with protracted exposures of varying intensity sustained in the past. The main complexity of modeling and interpreting such phenomena lies in the additional temporal dimension needed to express the association, as the risk depends on both intensity and timing of past exposures. This type of dependency is defined here as exposure–lag–response association. In this contribution, I illustrate a general statistical framework for such associations, established through the extension of distributed lag non-linear models, originally developed in time series analysis. This modeling class is based on the definition of a cross-basis, obtained by the combination of two functions to flexibly model linear or nonlinear exposure-responses and the lag structure of the relationship, respectively. The methodology is illustrated with an example application to cohort data and validated through a simulation study. This modeling framework generalizes to various study designs and regression models, and can be applied to study the health effects of protracted exposures to environmental factors, drugs or carcinogenic agents, among others. © 2013 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. PMID:24027094

  2. Characterization of Ferrofluid-based Stimuli-responsive Elastomers

    Sandra dePedro; Xavier Munoz-Berbel; Rosalia Rodríguez-Rodríguez; Jordi Sort; Jose Antonio Plaza; Juergen Brugger; Andreu Llobera; Victor J Cadarso

    2016-01-01

    Stimuli-responsive materials undergo physicochemical and/or structural changes when a specific actuation is applied. They are heterogeneous composites, consisting of a non-responsive matrix where functionality is provided by the filler. Surprisingly, the synthesis of polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS)-based stimuli-responsive elastomers (SRE) has seldomly been presented. Here, we present the structural, biological, optical, magnetic, and mechanical properties of several magnetic SRE (M-SRE) obtained...

  3. Residential Demand Response Behaviour Modeling applied to Cyber-physical Intrusion Detection

    Heussen, Kai; Tyge, Emil; Kosek, Anna Magdalena

    2017-01-01

    by a mix of physical system parameters, exogenous influences, user behaviour and preferences, which can be characterized by unstructured models such as a time-varying finite impulse response. In this study, which is based on field data, it is shown how this characteristic response behaviours can...

  4. Dynamic modeling and response of soil-wall systems

    Veletsos, A.S.; Younan, A.H.

    1993-10-01

    The study reported herein is the third in a series of investigations motivated by need to gain improved understanding of the responses to earthquakes of deeply embedded and underground tanks storing radioactive wastes, and to develop rational but simple methods of analysis and design for such systems. Following a brief review of the errors that may result from the use of a popular model for evaluating the dynamic soil forces induced in a base-excited rigid wall retaining an elastic stratum, the sources of the errors are identified and a modification is proposed which defines correctly the action of the system. In the proposed modification, the stratum is modeled by a series of elastically supported, semi-infinite horizontal bars with distributed mass instead of massless springs. The concepts involved are introduced by reference to a system composed of a fixed-based wall and a homogeneous elastic stratum, and are then applied to the analysis of more complex soil-wall systems. Both harmonic and transient excitations are considered, and comprehensive numerical solutions are presented which elucidate the actions involved and the effects and relative importance of the relevant parameters

  5. Interpersonal social responsibility model of service learning: A longitudinal study.

    Lahav, Orit; Daniely, Noa; Yalon-Chamovitz, Shira

    2018-01-01

    Service-learning (SL) is commonly used in Occupational Therapy (OT) programs worldwide as a community placement educational strategy. However, most SL models are not clearly defined in terms of both methodology and learning outcomes. This longitudinal study explores a structured model of Service-Learning (Interpersonal Social Responsibility-Service Learning: ISR-SL) aimed towards the development of professional identity among OT students. Based on OT students experiences from the end of the course through later stages as mature students and professionals. A qualitative research design was used to explore the perceptions and experiences of 150 first, second, and third-year OT students and graduates who have participated in ISR-SL during their first academic year. Our findings suggest that the structured, long-term relationship with a person with a disability in the natural environment, which is the core of the ISR-SL, allowed students to develop a professional identity based on seeing the person as a whole and recognizing his/her centrality in the therapeutic relationship. This study suggests ISR-SL as future direction or next step for implementing SL in OT and other healthcare disciplines programs.

  6. Guide to APA-Based Models

    Robins, Robert E.; Delisi, Donald P.

    2008-01-01

    In Robins and Delisi (2008), a linear decay model, a new IGE model by Sarpkaya (2006), and a series of APA-Based models were scored using data from three airports. This report is a guide to the APA-based models.

  7. Model of corporate social responsability in food tourism

    Naalyan Gendzheva

    2014-01-01

    The paper examines various aspects of the specificity of the postmodern trend in tourism - food tourism. Basic concepts are defined and classification of its various manifestations is proposed. Analyses are made for opportunities of responsible tourism in this area in order to achieve sustainability. In conclusion is proposed a model that creates opportunities for integrating socially responsible practices in the tourism sector through responsible food tourism.

  8. A model national emergency response plan for radiological accidents

    1993-09-01

    The IAEA has supported several projects for the development of a national response plan for radiological emergencies. As a results, the IAEA has developed a model National Emergency Response Plan for Radiological Accidents (RAD PLAN), particularly for countries that have no nuclear power plants. This plan can be adapted for use by countries interested in developing their own national radiological emergency response plan, and the IAEA will supply the latest version of the RAD PLAN on computer diskette upon request. 2 tabs

  9. A nodal method based on matrix-response method

    Rocamora Junior, F.D.; Menezes, A.

    1982-01-01

    A nodal method based in the matrix-response method, is presented, and its application to spatial gradient problems, such as those that exist in fast reactors, near the core - blanket interface, is investigated. (E.G.) [pt

  10. Model for dose-response with alternative change of sign

    Osovets, S.V.

    1998-01-01

    A new mathematical model of dose-response relationships is proposed, suitable for calculating stochastic effects of low level exposure. The corresponding differential equations are presented as well as their solution. (A.K.)

  11. Modelling tropical forests response to logging

    Cazzolla Gatti, Roberto; Di Paola, Arianna; Valentini, Riccardo; Paparella, Francesco

    2013-04-01

    Tropical rainforests are among the most threatened ecosystems by large-scale fragmentation due to human activity such as heavy logging and agricultural clearance. Although, they provide crucial ecosystem goods and services, such as sequestering carbon from the atmosphere, protecting watersheds and conserving biodiversity. In several countries forest resource extraction has experienced a shift from clearcutting to selective logging to maintain a significant forest cover and understock of living biomass. However the knowledge on the short and long-term effects of removing selected species in tropical rainforest are scarce and need to be further investigated. One of the main effects of selective logging on forest dynamics seems to be the local disturbance which involve the invasion of open space by weed, vines and climbers at the expense of the late-successional state cenosis. We present a simple deterministic model that describes the dynamics of tropical rainforest subject to selective logging to understand how and why weeds displace native species. We argue that the selective removal of tallest tropical trees carries out gaps of light that allow weeds, vines and climbers to prevail on native species, inhibiting the possibility of recovery of the original vegetation. Our results show that different regime shifts may occur depending on the type of forest management adopted. This hypothesis is supported by a dataset of trees height and weed/vines cover that we collected from 9 plots located in Central and West Africa both in untouched and managed areas.

  12. Calibration and testing of IKU's oil spill contingency and response (OSCAR) model system

    Reed, M.; Aamo, O.M.; Downing, K.

    1996-01-01

    A computer modeling system entitled Oil Spill Contingency and Response (OSCAR), was calibrated and tested using a variety of field observations. The objective of the exercise was to establish model credibility and increase confidence in efforts to compare alternate oil spill response strategies, while maintaining a balance between response costs and environmental protection. The key components of the system are IKU's data-based oil weathering model, a three dimensional oil trajectory and chemical fates model, an oil spill combat model, and exposure models for fish, ichthyoplankton, birds, and marine mammals. Most modelled calculations were in good agreement with field observations. One discrepancy was found which could be attributed to an underestimation of wind drift in the current model. 21 refs., 4 tabs., 32 figs

  13. An NCME Instructional Module on Polytomous Item Response Theory Models

    Penfield, Randall David

    2014-01-01

    A polytomous item is one for which the responses are scored according to three or more categories. Given the increasing use of polytomous items in assessment practices, item response theory (IRT) models specialized for polytomous items are becoming increasingly common. The purpose of this ITEMS module is to provide an accessible overview of…

  14. Modeling small-signal response of GaN-based metal-insulator-semiconductor high electron mobility transistor gate stack in spill-over regime: Effect of barrier resistance and interface states

    Capriotti, M.; Fleury, C.; Oposich, M.; Bethge, O.; Strasser, G.; Pogany, D.; Lagger, P.; Ostermaier, C.

    2015-01-01

    We provide theoretical and simulation analysis of the small signal response of SiO 2 /AlGaN/GaN metal insulator semiconductor (MIS) capacitors from depletion to spill over region, where the AlGaN/SiO 2 interface is accumulated with free electrons. A lumped element model of the gate stack, including the response of traps at the III-N/dielectric interface, is proposed and represented in terms of equivalent parallel capacitance, C p , and conductance, G p . C p -voltage and G p -voltage dependences are modelled taking into account bias dependent AlGaN barrier dynamic resistance R br and the effective channel resistance. In particular, in the spill-over region, the drop of C p with the frequency increase can be explained even without taking into account the response of interface traps, solely by considering the intrinsic response of the gate stack (i.e., no trap effects) and the decrease of R br with the applied forward bias. Furthermore, we show the limitations of the conductance method for the evaluation of the density of interface traps, D it , from the G p /ω vs. angular frequency ω curves. A peak in G p /ω vs. ω occurs even without traps, merely due to the intrinsic frequency response of gate stack. Moreover, the amplitude of the G p /ω vs. ω peak saturates at high D it , which can lead to underestimation of D it . Understanding the complex interplay between the intrinsic gate stack response and the effect of interface traps is relevant for the development of normally on and normally off MIS high electron mobility transistors with stable threshold voltage

  15. Ensemble atmospheric dispersion modeling for emergency response consequence assessments

    Addis, R.P.; Buckley, R.L.

    2003-01-01

    Full text: Prognostic atmospheric dispersion models are used to generate consequence assessments, which assist decision-makers in the event of a release from a nuclear facility. Differences in the forecast wind fields generated by various meteorological agencies, differences in the transport and diffusion models themselves, as well as differences in the way these models treat the release source term, all may result in differences in the simulated plumes. This talk will address the U.S. participation in the European ENSEMBLE project, and present a perspective an how ensemble techniques may be used to enable atmospheric modelers to provide decision-makers with a more realistic understanding of how both the atmosphere and the models behave. Meteorological forecasts generated by numerical models from national and multinational meteorological agencies provide individual realizations of three-dimensional, time dependent atmospheric wind fields. These wind fields may be used to drive atmospheric dispersion (transport and diffusion) models, or they may be used to initiate other, finer resolution meteorological models, which in turn drive dispersion models. Many modeling agencies now utilize ensemble-modeling techniques to determine how sensitive the prognostic fields are to minor perturbations in the model parameters. However, the European Union programs RTMOD and ENSEMBLE are the first projects to utilize a WEB based ensemble approach to interpret the output from atmospheric dispersion models. The ensembles produced are different from those generated by meteorological forecasting centers in that they are ensembles of dispersion model outputs from many different atmospheric transport and diffusion models utilizing prognostic atmospheric fields from several different forecast centers. As such, they enable a decision-maker to consider the uncertainty in the plume transport and growth as a result of the differences in the forecast wind fields as well as the differences in the

  16. The Social Responsibility Performance Outcomes Model: Building Socially Responsible Companies through Performance Improvement Outcomes.

    Hatcher, Tim

    2000-01-01

    Considers the role of performance improvement professionals and human resources development professionals in helping organizations realize the ethical and financial power of corporate social responsibility. Explains the social responsibility performance outcomes model, which incorporates the concepts of societal needs and outcomes. (LRW)

  17. A model for photothermal responses of flowering in rice. II. Model evaluation.

    Yin, X.; Kropff, M.J.; Nakagawa, H.; Horie, T.; Goudriaan, J.

    1997-01-01

    A detailed nonlinear model, the 3s-Beta model, for photothermal responses of flowering in rice (Oryza sativa L.) was evaluated for predicting rice flowering date in field conditions. This model was compared with other three models: a three-plane linear model and two nonlinear models, viz, the

  18. PD/PID controller tuning based on model approximations: Model reduction of some unstable and higher order nonlinear models

    Christer Dalen

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available A model reduction technique based on optimization theory is presented, where a possible higher order system/model is approximated with an unstable DIPTD model by using only step response data. The DIPTD model is used to tune PD/PID controllers for the underlying possible higher order system. Numerous examples are used to illustrate the theory, i.e. both linear and nonlinear models. The Pareto Optimal controller is used as a reference controller.

  19. Nano-resonator frequency response based on strain gradient theory

    Miandoab, Ehsan Maani; Yousefi-Koma, Aghil; Pishkenari, Hossein Nejat; Fathi, Mohammad

    2014-01-01

    This paper aims to explore the dynamic behaviour of a nano-resonator under ac and dc excitation using strain gradient theory. To achieve this goal, the partial differential equation of nano-beam vibration is first converted to an ordinary differential equation by the Galerkin projection method and the lumped model is derived. Lumped parameters of the nano-resonator, such as linear and nonlinear springs and damper coefficients, are compared with those of classical theory and it is demonstrated that beams with smaller thickness display greater deviation from classical parameters. Stable and unstable equilibrium points based on classic and non-classical theories are also compared. The results show that, regarding the applied dc voltage, the dynamic behaviours expected by classical and non-classical theories are significantly different, such that one theory predicts the un-deformed shape as the stable condition, while the other theory predicts that the beam will experience bi-stability. To obtain the frequency response of the nano-resonator, a general equation including cubic and quadratic nonlinearities in addition to parametric electrostatic excitation terms is derived, and the analytical solution is determined using a second-order multiple scales method. Based on frequency response analysis, the softening and hardening effects given by two theories are investigated and compared, and it is observed that neglecting the size effect can lead to two completely different predictions in the dynamic behaviour of the resonators. The findings of this article can be helpful in the design and characterization of the size-dependent dynamic behaviour of resonators on small scales. (paper)

  20. Applications of complex terrain meteorological models to emergency response management

    Yamada, Tetsuji; Leone, J.M. Jr.; Rao, K.S.; Dickerson, M.H.; Bader, D.C.; Williams, M.D.

    1989-01-01

    The Office of Health and Environmental Research (OHER), US Department of Energy (DOE), has supported the development of mesoscale transport and diffusion and meteorological models for several decades. The model development activities are closely tied to the OHER field measurement program which has generated a large amount of meteorological and tracer gas data that have been used extensively to test and improve both meteorological and dispersion models. This paper briefly discusses the history of the model development activities associated with the OHER atmospheric science program. The discussion will then focus on how results from this program have made their way into the emergency response community in the past, and what activities are presently being pursued to improve real-time emergency response capabilities. Finally, fruitful areas of research for improving real-time emergency response modeling capabilities are suggested. 35 refs., 5 figs

  1. Response-based estimation of sea state parameters - Influence of filtering

    Nielsen, Ulrik Dam

    2007-01-01

    Reliable estimation of the on-site sea state parameters is essential to decision support systems for safe navigation of ships. The wave spectrum can be estimated from procedures based on measured ship responses. The paper deals with two procedures—Bayesian Modelling and Parametric Modelling...

  2. Rule-based decision making model

    Sirola, Miki

    1998-01-01

    A rule-based decision making model is designed in G2 environment. A theoretical and methodological frame for the model is composed and motivated. The rule-based decision making model is based on object-oriented modelling, knowledge engineering and decision theory. The idea of safety objective tree is utilized. Advanced rule-based methodologies are applied. A general decision making model 'decision element' is constructed. The strategy planning of the decision element is based on e.g. value theory and utility theory. A hypothetical process model is built to give input data for the decision element. The basic principle of the object model in decision making is division in tasks. Probability models are used in characterizing component availabilities. Bayes' theorem is used to recalculate the probability figures when new information is got. The model includes simple learning features to save the solution path. A decision analytic interpretation is given to the decision making process. (author)

  3. Marginal Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Item Response Models in R

    Matthew S. Johnson

    2007-02-01

    Full Text Available Item response theory (IRT models are a class of statistical models used by researchers to describe the response behaviors of individuals to a set of categorically scored items. The most common IRT models can be classified as generalized linear fixed- and/or mixed-effect models. Although IRT models appear most often in the psychological testing literature, researchers in other fields have successfully utilized IRT-like models in a wide variety of applications. This paper discusses the three major methods of estimation in IRT and develops R functions utilizing the built-in capabilities of the R environment to find the marginal maximum likelihood estimates of the generalized partial credit model. The currently available R packages ltm is also discussed.

  4. Approaches to modeling the development of physiological stress responsivity.

    Hinnant, J Benjamin; Philbrook, Lauren E; Erath, Stephen A; El-Sheikh, Mona

    2018-05-01

    Influential biopsychosocial theories have proposed that some developmental periods in the lifespan are potential pivot points or opportunities for recalibration of stress response systems. To date, however, there have been few longitudinal studies of physiological stress responsivity and no studies comparing change in physiological stress responsivity across developmental periods. Our goals were to (a) address conceptual and methodological issues in studying the development of physiological stress responsivity within and between individuals, and (b) provide an exemplar for evaluating development of responsivity to stress in the parasympathetic nervous system, comparing respiratory sinus arrhythmia (RSA) responsivity from middle to late childhood with middle to late adolescence. We propose the use of latent growth modeling of stress responsivity that includes time-varying covariates to account for conceptual and methodological issues in the measurement of physiological stress responsivity. Such models allow researchers to address key aspects of developmental sensitivity including within-individual variability, mean level change over time, and between-individual variability over time. In an empirical example, we found significant between-individual variability over time in RSA responsivity to stress during middle to late childhood but not during middle to late adolescence, suggesting that childhood may be a period of greater developmental sensitivity at the between-individual level. © 2017 Society for Psychophysiological Research.

  5. Linking an ecosystem model and a landscape model to study forest species response to climate warming

    Hong S. He; David J. Mladenoff; Thomas R. Crow

    1999-01-01

    No single model can address forest change from single tree to regional scales. We discuss a framework linking an ecosystem process model {LINKAGES) with a spatial landscape model (LANDIS) to examine forest species responses to climate warming for a large, heterogeneous landscape in northern Wisconsin, USA. Individual species response at the ecosystem scale was...

  6. Modeling Answer Change Behavior: An Application of a Generalized Item Response Tree Model

    Jeon, Minjeong; De Boeck, Paul; van der Linden, Wim

    2017-01-01

    We present a novel application of a generalized item response tree model to investigate test takers' answer change behavior. The model allows us to simultaneously model the observed patterns of the initial and final responses after an answer change as a function of a set of latent traits and item parameters. The proposed application is illustrated…

  7. A HIERARCHICAL SET OF MODELS FOR SPECIES RESPONSE ANALYSIS

    HUISMAN, J; OLFF, H; FRESCO, LFM

    Variation in the abundance of species in space and/or time can be caused by a wide range of underlying processes. Before such causes can be analysed we need simple mathematical models which can describe the observed response patterns. For this purpose a hierarchical set of models is presented. These

  8. A hierarchical set of models for species response analysis

    Huisman, J.; Olff, H.; Fresco, L.F.M.

    1993-01-01

    Variation in the abundance of species in space and/or time can be caused by a wide range of underlying processes. Before such causes can be analysed we need simple mathematical models which can describe the observed response patterns. For this purpose a hierarchical set of models is presented. These

  9. Goodness-of-Fit Assessment of Item Response Theory Models

    Maydeu-Olivares, Alberto

    2013-01-01

    The article provides an overview of goodness-of-fit assessment methods for item response theory (IRT) models. It is now possible to obtain accurate "p"-values of the overall fit of the model if bivariate information statistics are used. Several alternative approaches are described. As the validity of inferences drawn on the fitted model…

  10. New Simulation Models for Addressing Like X–Aircraft Responses ...

    New Simulation Models for Addressing Like X–Aircraft Responses. AS Mohammed, SO Abdulkareem. Abstract. The original Monte Carlo model was previously modified for use in simulating data that conform to certain resource flow constraints. Recent encounters in communication and controls render these data absolute ...

  11. The modeling of response indicators of integrated water resources ...

    The results indicate that the feed forward multilayer perceptron models with back propagation are useful tools to define and prioritize the most effective response variable on water resources mobilization to intervene and solve water problems. The model evaluation shows that the correlation coefficients are more than 96% ...

  12. Optimizing incomplete sample designs for item response model parameters

    van der Linden, Willem J.

    Several models for optimizing incomplete sample designs with respect to information on the item parameters are presented. The following cases are considered: (1) known ability parameters; (2) unknown ability parameters; (3) item sets with multiple ability scales; and (4) response models with

  13. Multi-scale modeling of the CD8 immune response

    Barbarroux, Loic, E-mail: loic.barbarroux@doctorant.ec-lyon.fr [Inria, Université de Lyon, UMR 5208, Institut Camille Jordan (France); Ecole Centrale de Lyon, 36 avenue Guy de Collongue, 69134 Ecully (France); Michel, Philippe, E-mail: philippe.michel@ec-lyon.fr [Inria, Université de Lyon, UMR 5208, Institut Camille Jordan (France); Ecole Centrale de Lyon, 36 avenue Guy de Collongue, 69134 Ecully (France); Adimy, Mostafa, E-mail: mostafa.adimy@inria.fr [Inria, Université de Lyon, UMR 5208, Université Lyon 1, Institut Camille Jordan, 43 Bd. du 11 novembre 1918, F-69200 Villeurbanne Cedex (France); Crauste, Fabien, E-mail: crauste@math.univ-lyon1.fr [Inria, Université de Lyon, UMR 5208, Université Lyon 1, Institut Camille Jordan, 43 Bd. du 11 novembre 1918, F-69200 Villeurbanne Cedex (France)

    2016-06-08

    During the primary CD8 T-Cell immune response to an intracellular pathogen, CD8 T-Cells undergo exponential proliferation and continuous differentiation, acquiring cytotoxic capabilities to address the infection and memorize the corresponding antigen. After cleaning the organism, the only CD8 T-Cells left are antigen-specific memory cells whose role is to respond stronger and faster in case they are presented this very same antigen again. That is how vaccines work: a small quantity of a weakened pathogen is introduced in the organism to trigger the primary response, generating corresponding memory cells in the process, giving the organism a way to defend himself in case it encounters the same pathogen again. To investigate this process, we propose a non linear, multi-scale mathematical model of the CD8 T-Cells immune response due to vaccination using a maturity structured partial differential equation. At the intracellular scale, the level of expression of key proteins is modeled by a delay differential equation system, which gives the speeds of maturation for each cell. The population of cells is modeled by a maturity structured equation whose speeds are given by the intracellular model. We focus here on building the model, as well as its asymptotic study. Finally, we display numerical simulations showing the model can reproduce the biological dynamics of the cell population for both the primary response and the secondary responses.

  14. Mars 2020 Model Based Systems Engineering Pilot

    Dukes, Alexandra Marie

    2017-01-01

    The pilot study is led by the Integration Engineering group in NASA's Launch Services Program (LSP). The Integration Engineering (IE) group is responsible for managing the interfaces between the spacecraft and launch vehicle. This pilot investigates the utility of Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) with respect to managing and verifying interface requirements. The main objectives of the pilot are to model several key aspects of the Mars 2020 integrated operations and interface requirements based on the design and verification artifacts from Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) and to demonstrate how MBSE could be used by LSP to gain further insight on the interface between the spacecraft and launch vehicle as well as to enhance how LSP manages the launch service. The method used to accomplish this pilot started through familiarization of SysML, MagicDraw, and the Mars 2020 and MSL systems through books, tutorials, and NASA documentation. MSL was chosen as the focus of the model since its processes and verifications translate easily to the Mars 2020 mission. The study was further focused by modeling specialized systems and processes within MSL in order to demonstrate the utility of MBSE for the rest of the mission. The systems chosen were the In-Flight Disconnect (IFD) system and the Mass Properties process. The IFD was chosen as a system of focus since it is an interface between the spacecraft and launch vehicle which can demonstrate the usefulness of MBSE from a system perspective. The Mass Properties process was chosen as a process of focus since the verifications for mass properties occur throughout the lifecycle and can demonstrate the usefulness of MBSE from a multi-discipline perspective. Several iterations of both perspectives have been modeled and evaluated. While the pilot study will continue for another 2 weeks, pros and cons of using MBSE for LSP IE have been identified. A pro of using MBSE includes an integrated view of the disciplines, requirements, and

  15. Model cortical responses for the detection of perceptual onsets and beat tracking in singing

    Coath, M.; Denham, S.L.; Smith, L.M.; Honing, H.; Hazan, A.; Holonowicz, P.; Purwins, H.

    2009-01-01

    We describe a biophysically motivated model of auditory salience based on a model of cortical responses and present results that show that the derived measure of salience can be used to identify the position of perceptual onsets in a musical stimulus successfully. The salience measure is also shown

  16. Classifying multi-model wheat yield impact response surfaces showing sensitivity to temperature and precipitation change

    Fronzek, Stefan; Pirttioja, Nina; Carter, Timothy R.; Bindi, Marco; Hoffmann, Holger; Palosuo, Taru; Ruiz-Ramos, Margarita; Tao, Fulu; Trnka, Miroslav; Acutis, Marco; Asseng, Senthold; Baranowski, Piotr; Basso, Bruno; Bodin, Per; Buis, Samuel; Cammarano, Davide; Deligios, Paola; Destain, Marie France; Dumont, Benjamin; Ewert, Frank; Ferrise, Roberto; François, Louis; Gaiser, Thomas; Hlavinka, Petr; Jacquemin, Ingrid; Kersebaum, Kurt Christian; Kollas, Chris; Krzyszczak, Jaromir; Lorite, Ignacio J.; Minet, Julien; Minguez, M.I.; Montesino, Manuel; Moriondo, Marco; Müller, Christoph; Nendel, Claas; Öztürk, Isik; Perego, Alessia; Rodríguez, Alfredo; Ruane, Alex C.; Ruget, Françoise; Sanna, Mattia; Semenov, Mikhail A.; Slawinski, Cezary; Stratonovitch, Pierre; Supit, Iwan; Waha, Katharina; Wang, Enli; Wu, Lianhai; Zhao, Zhigan; Rötter, Reimund P.

    2018-01-01

    Crop growth simulation models can differ greatly in their treatment of key processes and hence in their response to environmental conditions. Here, we used an ensemble of 26 process-based wheat models applied at sites across a European transect to compare their sensitivity to changes in

  17. Mouse Models as Predictors of Human Responses: Evolutionary Medicine.

    Uhl, Elizabeth W; Warner, Natalie J

    Mice offer a number of advantages and are extensively used to model human diseases and drug responses. Selective breeding and genetic manipulation of mice have made many different genotypes and phenotypes available for research. However, in many cases, mouse models have failed to be predictive. Important sources of the prediction problem have been the failure to consider the evolutionary basis for species differences, especially in drug metabolism, and disease definitions that do not reflect the complexity of gene expression underlying disease phenotypes. Incorporating evolutionary insights into mouse models allow for unique opportunities to characterize the effects of diet, different gene expression profiles, and microbiomics underlying human drug responses and disease phenotypes.

  18. An efficient energy response model for liquid scintillator detectors

    Lebanowski, Logan; Wan, Linyan; Ji, Xiangpan; Wang, Zhe; Chen, Shaomin

    2018-05-01

    Liquid scintillator detectors are playing an increasingly important role in low-energy neutrino experiments. In this article, we describe a generic energy response model of liquid scintillator detectors that provides energy estimations of sub-percent accuracy. This model fits a minimal set of physically-motivated parameters that capture the essential characteristics of scintillator response and that can naturally account for changes in scintillator over time, helping to avoid associated biases or systematic uncertainties. The model employs a one-step calculation and look-up tables, yielding an immediate estimation of energy and an efficient framework for quantifying systematic uncertainties and correlations.

  19. Modal response of interior mass based upon external measurements

    Chow, C T; Eli, M; Jorgensen, B R; Woehrle, T.

    1999-01-01

    Modal response testing has been used to predict the motion of interior masses of a system in which only external instrumentation is allowed. Testing of this form may occasionally be necessary in validation of a computer model, but also has potential as a tool for validating individual assemblies in a QA process. Examination of the external frequency response and mode shapes can offer insight into interior response. The interpretation of these results is improved through parallel analytical solutions. A simple, three-mass model has been examined experimentally and analytically to demonstrate modal theory. These results show the limitations of the external measurement in predicting internal response due to transmissibility. A procedure for utilizing external testing is described. The question posed through this research is whether or not modal correlation analysis can be adapted for use in systems for which instrumentation of critical components is missing

  20. A template-based approach for responsibility management in executable business processes

    Cabanillas, Cristina; Resinas, Manuel; Ruiz-Cortés, Antonio

    2018-05-01

    Process-oriented organisations need to manage the different types of responsibilities their employees may have w.r.t. the activities involved in their business processes. Despite several approaches provide support for responsibility modelling, in current Business Process Management Systems (BPMS) the only responsibility considered at runtime is the one related to performing the work required for activity completion. Others like accountability or consultation must be implemented by manually adding activities in the executable process model, which is time-consuming and error-prone. In this paper, we address this limitation by enabling current BPMS to execute processes in which people with different responsibilities interact to complete the activities. We introduce a metamodel based on Responsibility Assignment Matrices (RAM) to model the responsibility assignment for each activity, and a flexible template-based mechanism that automatically transforms such information into BPMN elements, which can be interpreted and executed by a BPMS. Thus, our approach does not enforce any specific behaviour for the different responsibilities but new templates can be modelled to specify the interaction that best suits the activity requirements. Furthermore, libraries of templates can be created and reused in different processes. We provide a reference implementation and build a library of templates for a well-known set of responsibilities.

  1. Model-based DSL frameworks

    Ivanov, Ivan; Bézivin, J.; Jouault, F.; Valduriez, P.

    2006-01-01

    More than five years ago, the OMG proposed the Model Driven Architecture (MDA™) approach to deal with the separation of platform dependent and independent aspects in information systems. Since then, the initial idea of MDA evolved and Model Driven Engineering (MDE) is being increasingly promoted to

  2. RESPONSIVE URBAN MODELS BY PROCESSING SETS OF HETEROGENEOUS DATA

    M. Calvano

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents some steps in experimentation aimed at describing urban spaces made following the series of earthquakes that affected a vast area of central Italy starting on 24 August 2016. More specifically, these spaces pertain to historical centres of limited size and case studies that can be called “problematic” (due to complex morphological and settlement conditions, because they are difficult to access, or because they have been affected by calamitous events, etc.. The main objectives were to verify the use of sets of heterogeneous data that are already largely available to define a workflow and develop procedures that would allow some of the steps to be automated as much as possible. The most general goal was to use the experimentation to define a methodology to approach the problem aimed at developing descriptive responsive models of the urban space, that is, morphological and computer-based models capable of being modified in relation to the constantly updated flow of input data.

  3. Response of a DSNP pressurizer model under accident conditions

    Saphier, D.; Kallfelz, J.; Belblidia, L.

    1986-01-01

    Recently a new pressurizer model was developed for the DSNP simulation language. The model was connected to a simulation of the Trojan pressurized water reactor (PWR) and tested by simulating a loss-of-off-site power (LOSP) anticipated transient without scram. The results compare well to a similar study performed using the RELAP code. The pressurizer model and its response to the LOSP accident are presented

  4. Marginal and Interaction Effects in Ordered Response Models

    Debdulal Mallick

    2009-01-01

    In discrete choice models the marginal effect of a variable of interest that is interacted with another variable differs from the marginal effect of a variable that is not interacted with any variable. The magnitude of the interaction effect is also not equal to the marginal effect of the interaction term. I present consistent estimators of both marginal and interaction effects in ordered response models. This procedure is general and can easily be extended to other discrete choice models. I ...

  5. Model based design introduction: modeling game controllers to microprocessor architectures

    Jungwirth, Patrick; Badawy, Abdel-Hameed

    2017-04-01

    We present an introduction to model based design. Model based design is a visual representation, generally a block diagram, to model and incrementally develop a complex system. Model based design is a commonly used design methodology for digital signal processing, control systems, and embedded systems. Model based design's philosophy is: to solve a problem - a step at a time. The approach can be compared to a series of steps to converge to a solution. A block diagram simulation tool allows a design to be simulated with real world measurement data. For example, if an analog control system is being upgraded to a digital control system, the analog sensor input signals can be recorded. The digital control algorithm can be simulated with the real world sensor data. The output from the simulated digital control system can then be compared to the old analog based control system. Model based design can compared to Agile software develop. The Agile software development goal is to develop working software in incremental steps. Progress is measured in completed and tested code units. Progress is measured in model based design by completed and tested blocks. We present a concept for a video game controller and then use model based design to iterate the design towards a working system. We will also describe a model based design effort to develop an OS Friendly Microprocessor Architecture based on the RISC-V.

  6. EPR-based material modelling of soils

    Faramarzi, Asaad; Alani, Amir M.

    2013-04-01

    In the past few decades, as a result of the rapid developments in computational software and hardware, alternative computer aided pattern recognition approaches have been introduced to modelling many engineering problems, including constitutive modelling of materials. The main idea behind pattern recognition systems is that they learn adaptively from experience and extract various discriminants, each appropriate for its purpose. In this work an approach is presented for developing material models for soils based on evolutionary polynomial regression (EPR). EPR is a recently developed hybrid data mining technique that searches for structured mathematical equations (representing the behaviour of a system) using genetic algorithm and the least squares method. Stress-strain data from triaxial tests are used to train and develop EPR-based material models for soil. The developed models are compared with some of the well-known conventional material models and it is shown that EPR-based models can provide a better prediction for the behaviour of soils. The main benefits of using EPR-based material models are that it provides a unified approach to constitutive modelling of all materials (i.e., all aspects of material behaviour can be implemented within a unified environment of an EPR model); it does not require any arbitrary choice of constitutive (mathematical) models. In EPR-based material models there are no material parameters to be identified. As the model is trained directly from experimental data therefore, EPR-based material models are the shortest route from experimental research (data) to numerical modelling. Another advantage of EPR-based constitutive model is that as more experimental data become available, the quality of the EPR prediction can be improved by learning from the additional data, and therefore, the EPR model can become more effective and robust. The developed EPR-based material models can be incorporated in finite element (FE) analysis.

  7. Immunotoxicity in green mussels under perfluoroalkyl substance (PFAS) exposure: Reversible response and response model development.

    Liu, Changhui; Gin, Karina Yew-Hoong

    2018-04-01

    The immunotoxicity of 4 commonly detected perfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs), namely, perfluorooctanesulfonate (PFOS), perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA), perfluorononanoic acid (PFNA), and perfluorodecanoic acid (PFDA) was investigated by measuring biomarkers of the immune profile of green mussels, Perna viridis. The biomarkers included neutral red retention, phagocytosis, and spontaneous cytotoxicity, all of which were tested on mussel hemocytes. Hemocytes are an important component of the invertebrate immune system. We found that exposure to PFASs could lead to reduced hemocyte cell viability and suppress immune function by up to 50% of normal performance within the experimental exposure range. The results indicate that PFASs have an immunotoxic potential and thus could pose severe health risks to aquatic organisms. The reported immunotoxicity is likely to result from the compounds' direct and indirect interactions with the hemocyte membrane, and therefore likely to affect the functionality of these cells. The immunotoxic response was found to be related to the organism's burden of PFASs, and was reversible when the compounds were removed from the test organisms. Based on this relationship, models using an organism's PFAS concentration and bioaccumulation factor (BAF) as the independent variables were established to quantify PFAS-induced immunotoxicity. The models help us to gain a better understanding of the toxic mechanism of PFASs, and provide a tool to evaluate adverse effects for the whole group of compounds with one mathematical equation. Environ Toxicol Chem 2018;37:1138-1145. © 2018 SETAC. © 2018 SETAC.

  8. Modeling urbanized watershed flood response changes with distributed hydrological model: key hydrological processes, parameterization and case studies

    Chen, Y.

    2017-12-01

    Urbanization is the world development trend for the past century, and the developing countries have been experiencing much rapider urbanization in the past decades. Urbanization brings many benefits to human beings, but also causes negative impacts, such as increasing flood risk. Impact of urbanization on flood response has long been observed, but quantitatively studying this effect still faces great challenges. For example, setting up an appropriate hydrological model representing the changed flood responses and determining accurate model parameters are very difficult in the urbanized or urbanizing watershed. In the Pearl River Delta area, rapidest urbanization has been observed in China for the past decades, and dozens of highly urbanized watersheds have been appeared. In this study, a physically based distributed watershed hydrological model, the Liuxihe model is employed and revised to simulate the hydrological processes of the highly urbanized watershed flood in the Pearl River Delta area. A virtual soil type is then defined in the terrain properties dataset, and its runoff production and routing algorithms are added to the Liuxihe model. Based on a parameter sensitive analysis, the key hydrological processes of a highly urbanized watershed is proposed, that provides insight into the hydrological processes and for parameter optimization. Based on the above analysis, the model is set up in the Songmushan watershed where there is hydrological data observation. A model parameter optimization and updating strategy is proposed based on the remotely sensed LUC types, which optimizes model parameters with PSO algorithm and updates them based on the changed LUC types. The model parameters in Songmushan watershed are regionalized at the Pearl River Delta area watersheds based on the LUC types of the other watersheds. A dozen watersheds in the highly urbanized area of Dongguan City in the Pearl River Delta area were studied for the flood response changes due to

  9. Integration of Simulink Models with Component-based Software Models

    Marian, Nicolae

    2008-01-01

    Model based development aims to facilitate the development of embedded control systems by emphasizing the separation of the design level from the implementation level. Model based design involves the use of multiple models that represent different views of a system, having different semantics...... of abstract system descriptions. Usually, in mechatronics systems, design proceeds by iterating model construction, model analysis, and model transformation. Constructing a MATLAB/Simulink model, a plant and controller behavior is simulated using graphical blocks to represent mathematical and logical...... constraints. COMDES (Component-based Design of Software for Distributed Embedded Systems) is such a component-based system framework developed by the software engineering group of Mads Clausen Institute for Product Innovation (MCI), University of Southern Denmark. Once specified, the software model has...

  10. Improving Agent Based Modeling of Critical Incidents

    Robert Till

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Agent Based Modeling (ABM is a powerful method that has been used to simulate potential critical incidents in the infrastructure and built environments. This paper will discuss the modeling of some critical incidents currently simulated using ABM and how they may be expanded and improved by using better physiological modeling, psychological modeling, modeling the actions of interveners, introducing Geographic Information Systems (GIS and open source models.

  11. Models for Rational Number Bases

    Pedersen, Jean J.; Armbruster, Frank O.

    1975-01-01

    This article extends number bases to negative integers, then to positive rationals and finally to negative rationals. Methods and rules for operations in positive and negative rational bases greater than one or less than negative one are summarized in tables. Sample problems are explained and illustrated. (KM)

  12. Modeling, Analysis, and Control of Demand Response Resources

    Mathieu, Johanna L. [Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2012-05-01

    While the traditional goal of an electric power system has been to control supply to fulfill demand, the demand-side can plan an active role in power systems via Demand Response (DR), defined by the Department of Energy (DOE) as “a tariff or program established to motivate changes in electric use by end-use customers in response to changes in the price of electricity over time, or to give incentive payments designed to induce lower electricity use at times of high market prices or when grid reliability is jeopardized” [29]. DR can provide a variety of benefits including reducing peak electric loads when the power system is stressed and fast timescale energy balancing. Therefore, DR can improve grid reliability and reduce wholesale energy prices and their volatility. This dissertation focuses on analyzing both recent and emerging DR paradigms. Recent DR programs have focused on peak load reduction in commercial buildings and industrial facilities (C&I facilities). We present methods for using 15-minute-interval electric load data, commonly available from C&I facilities, to help building managers understand building energy consumption and ‘ask the right questions’ to discover opportunities for DR. Additionally, we present a regression-based model of whole building electric load, i.e., a baseline model, which allows us to quantify DR performance. We use this baseline model to understand the performance of 38 C&I facilities participating in an automated dynamic pricing DR program in California. In this program, facilities are expected to exhibit the same response each DR event. We find that baseline model error makes it difficult to precisely quantify changes in electricity consumption and understand if C&I facilities exhibit event-to-event variability in their response to DR signals. Therefore, we present a method to compute baseline model error and a metric to determine how much observed DR variability results from baseline model error rather than real

  13. KBERG: KnowledgeBase for Estrogen Responsive Genes

    Tang, Suisheng; Zhang, Zhuo; Tan, Sin Lam

    2007-01-01

    Estrogen has a profound impact on human physiology affecting transcription of numerous genes. To decipher functional characteristics of estrogen responsive genes, we developed KnowledgeBase for Estrogen Responsive Genes (KBERG). Genes in KBERG were derived from Estrogen Responsive Gene Database...... (ERGDB) and were analyzed from multiple aspects. We explored the possible transcription regulation mechanism by capturing highly conserved promoter motifs across orthologous genes, using promoter regions that cover the range of [-1200, +500] relative to the transcription start sites. The motif detection...... is based on ab initio discovery of common cis-elements from the orthologous gene cluster from human, mouse and rat, thus reflecting a degree of promoter sequence preservation during evolution. The identified motifs are linked to transcription factor binding sites based on the TRANSFAC database. In addition...

  14. Improvement in MFTF data base system response times

    Lang, N.C.; Nelson, B.C.

    1983-01-01

    The Supervisory Control and Diagnostic System for the Mirror Fusion Test Facility (MFTF) has been designed as an event driven system. To this end we have designed a data base notification facility in which a task can request that it be loaded and started whenever an element in the data base is changed beyond some user defined range. Our initial implementation of the notify facility exhibited marginal response times whenever a data base table with a large number of outstanding notifies was written into. In this paper we discuss the sources of the slow response and describe in detail a new structure for the list of notifies which minimizes search time resulting in significantly faster response

  15. Multiple Response Regression for Gaussian Mixture Models with Known Labels.

    Lee, Wonyul; Du, Ying; Sun, Wei; Hayes, D Neil; Liu, Yufeng

    2012-12-01

    Multiple response regression is a useful regression technique to model multiple response variables using the same set of predictor variables. Most existing methods for multiple response regression are designed for modeling homogeneous data. In many applications, however, one may have heterogeneous data where the samples are divided into multiple groups. Our motivating example is a cancer dataset where the samples belong to multiple cancer subtypes. In this paper, we consider modeling the data coming from a mixture of several Gaussian distributions with known group labels. A naive approach is to split the data into several groups according to the labels and model each group separately. Although it is simple, this approach ignores potential common structures across different groups. We propose new penalized methods to model all groups jointly in which the common and unique structures can be identified. The proposed methods estimate the regression coefficient matrix, as well as the conditional inverse covariance matrix of response variables. Asymptotic properties of the proposed methods are explored. Through numerical examples, we demonstrate that both estimation and prediction can be improved by modeling all groups jointly using the proposed methods. An application to a glioblastoma cancer dataset reveals some interesting common and unique gene relationships across different cancer subtypes.

  16. PV panel model based on datasheet values

    Sera, Dezso; Teodorescu, Remus; Rodriguez, Pedro

    2007-01-01

    This work presents the construction of a model for a PV panel using the single-diode five-parameters model, based exclusively on data-sheet parameters. The model takes into account the series and parallel (shunt) resistance of the panel. The equivalent circuit and the basic equations of the PV cell....... Based on these equations, a PV panel model, which is able to predict the panel behavior in different temperature and irradiance conditions, is built and tested....

  17. The influence of model parameters on catchment-response

    Shah, S.M.S.; Gabriel, H.F.; Khan, A.A.

    2002-01-01

    This paper deals with the study of influence of influence of conceptual rainfall-runoff model parameters on catchment response (runoff). A conceptual modified watershed yield model is employed to study the effects of model-parameters on catchment-response, i.e. runoff. The model is calibrated, using manual parameter-fitting approach, also known as trial and error parameter-fitting. In all, there are twenty one (21) parameters that control the functioning of the model. A lumped parametric approach is used. The detailed analysis was performed on Ling River near Kahuta, having catchment area of 56 sq. miles. The model includes physical parameters like GWSM, PETS, PGWRO, etc. fitting coefficients like CINF, CGWS, etc. and initial estimates of the surface-water and groundwater storages i.e. srosp and gwsp. Sensitivity analysis offers a good way, without repetititious computations, the proper weight and consideration that must be taken when each of the influencing factor is evaluated. Sensitivity-analysis was performed to evaluate the influence of model-parameters on runoff. The sensitivity and relative contributions of model parameters influencing catchment-response are studied. (author)

  18. Modelling of individual subject ozone exposure response kinetics.

    Schelegle, Edward S; Adams, William C; Walby, William F; Marion, M Susan

    2012-06-01

    A better understanding of individual subject ozone (O(3)) exposure response kinetics will provide insight into how to improve models used in the risk assessment of ambient ozone exposure. To develop a simple two compartment exposure-response model that describes individual subject decrements in forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV(1)) induced by the acute inhalation of O(3) lasting up to 8 h. FEV(1) measurements of 220 subjects who participated in 14 previously completed studies were fit to the model using both particle swarm and nonlinear least squares optimization techniques to identify three subject-specific coefficients producing minimum "global" and local errors, respectively. Observed and predicted decrements in FEV(1) of the 220 subjects were used for validation of the model. Further validation was provided by comparing the observed O(3)-induced FEV(1) decrements in an additional eight studies with predicted values obtained using model coefficients estimated from the 220 subjects used in cross validation. Overall the individual subject measured and modeled FEV(1) decrements were highly correlated (mean R(2) of 0.69 ± 0.24). In addition, it was shown that a matrix of individual subject model coefficients can be used to predict the mean and variance of group decrements in FEV(1). This modeling approach provides insight into individual subject O(3) exposure response kinetics and provides a potential starting point for improving the risk assessment of environmental O(3) exposure.

  19. Research on Corporate Social Responsibility of Supply Chain System Based on the Self-organization Theory

    Baoying Wang

    2013-01-01

    In this study, the characteristics of supply chain system are analyzed based on the Self-organization theory from the angle of view of supply chain system. The mathematical models when the system fulfilling social responsibility including self-organization evolution model and self-organization function model are developed to discuss the formation and function of self-organization in supply chain system and coordination. Some basic conditions and tactics about self-organization establishment a...

  20. Immune Response to Electromagnetic Fields through Cybernetic Modeling

    Godina-Nava, J. J.; Segura, M. A. Rodriguez; Cadena, S. Reyes; Sierra, L. C. Gaitan

    2008-01-01

    We study the optimality of the humoral immune response through a mathematical model, which involves the effect of electromagnetic fields over the large lymphocytes proliferation. Are used the so called cybernetic variables in the context of the matching law of microeconomics or mathematical psychology, to measure the large lymphocytes population and to maximize the instantaneous antibody production rate in time during the immunologic response in order to most efficiently inactivate the antigen

  1. Immune Response to Electromagnetic Fields through Cybernetic Modeling

    Godina-Nava, J. J.; Segura, M. A. Rodríguez; Cadena, S. Reyes; Sierra, L. C. Gaitán

    2008-08-01

    We study the optimality of the humoral immune response through a mathematical model, which involves the effect of electromagnetic fields over the large lymphocytes proliferation. Are used the so called cybernetic variables in the context of the matching law of microeconomics or mathematical psychology, to measure the large lymphocytes population and to maximize the instantaneous antibody production rate in time during the immunologic response in order to most efficiently inactivate the antigen.

  2. Traceability in Model-Based Testing

    Mathew George

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The growing complexities of software and the demand for shorter time to market are two important challenges that face today’s IT industry. These challenges demand the increase of both productivity and quality of software. Model-based testing is a promising technique for meeting these challenges. Traceability modeling is a key issue and challenge in model-based testing. Relationships between the different models will help to navigate from one model to another, and trace back to the respective requirements and the design model when the test fails. In this paper, we present an approach for bridging the gaps between the different models in model-based testing. We propose relation definition markup language (RDML for defining the relationships between models.

  3. Firm Based Trade Models and Turkish Economy

    Nilüfer ARGIN

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Among all international trade models, only The Firm Based Trade Models explains firm’s action and behavior in the world trade. The Firm Based Trade Models focuses on the trade behavior of individual firms that actually make intra industry trade. Firm Based Trade Models can explain globalization process truly. These approaches include multinational cooperation, supply chain and outsourcing also. Our paper aims to explain and analyze Turkish export with Firm Based Trade Models’ context. We use UNCTAD data on exports by SITC Rev 3 categorization to explain total export and 255 products and calculate intensive-extensive margins of Turkish firms.

  4. Lévy-based growth models

    Jónsdóttir, Kristjana Ýr; Schmiegel, Jürgen; Jensen, Eva Bjørn Vedel

    2008-01-01

    In the present paper, we give a condensed review, for the nonspecialist reader, of a new modelling framework for spatio-temporal processes, based on Lévy theory. We show the potential of the approach in stochastic geometry and spatial statistics by studying Lévy-based growth modelling of planar o...... objects. The growth models considered are spatio-temporal stochastic processes on the circle. As a by product, flexible new models for space–time covariance functions on the circle are provided. An application of the Lévy-based growth models to tumour growth is discussed....

  5. Responsive survey design, demographic data collection, and models of demographic behavior.

    Axinn, William G; Link, Cynthia F; Groves, Robert M

    2011-08-01

    To address declining response rates and rising data-collection costs, survey methodologists have devised new techniques for using process data ("paradata") to address nonresponse by altering the survey design dynamically during data collection. We investigate the substantive consequences of responsive survey design-tools that use paradata to improve the representative qualities of surveys and control costs. By improving representation of reluctant respondents, responsive design can change our understanding of the topic being studied. Using the National Survey of Family Growth Cycle 6, we illustrate how responsive survey design can shape both demographic estimates and models of demographic behaviors based on survey data. By juxtaposing measures from regular and responsive data collection phases, we document how special efforts to interview reluctant respondents may affect demographic estimates. Results demonstrate the potential of responsive survey design to change the quality of demographic research based on survey data.

  6. Distributed Prognostics Based on Structural Model Decomposition

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Within systems health management, prognostics focuses on predicting the remaining useful life of a system. In the model-based prognostics paradigm, physics-based...

  7. Response of base-isolated nuclear structures to extreme earthquake shaking

    Kumar, Manish; Whittaker, Andrew S.; Constantinou, Michael C.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Response-history analysis of nuclear structures base-isolated using lead–rubber bearings is performed. • Advanced numerical model of lead–rubber bearing is used to capture behavior under extreme earthquake shaking. • Results of response-history analysis obtained using simplified and advanced model of lead–rubber bearings are compared. • Heating of the lead core and variation in buckling load and axial stiffness affect the response. - Abstract: Seismic isolation using low damping rubber and lead–rubber bearings is a viable strategy for mitigating the effects of extreme earthquake shaking on safety-related nuclear structures. The mechanical properties of these bearings are not expected to change substantially in design basis shaking. However, under shaking more intense than design basis, the properties of the lead cores in lead–rubber bearings may degrade due to heating associated with energy dissipation, some bearings in an isolation system may experience net tension, and the compression and tension stiffness may be affected by the lateral displacement of the isolation system. The effects of intra-earthquake changes in mechanical properties on the response of base-isolated nuclear power plants (NPPs) are investigated using an advanced numerical model of a lead–rubber bearing that has been verified and validated, and implemented in OpenSees. A macro-model is used for response-history analysis of base-isolated NPPs. Ground motions are selected and scaled to be consistent with response spectra for design basis and beyond design basis earthquake shaking at the site of the Diablo Canyon Nuclear Generating Station. Ten isolation systems of two periods and five characteristic strengths are analyzed. The responses obtained using simplified and advanced isolator models are compared. Strength degradation due to heating of lead cores and changes in buckling load most significantly affect the response of the base-isolated NPP.

  8. Response of base-isolated nuclear structures to extreme earthquake shaking

    Kumar, Manish, E-mail: mkumar2@buffalo.edu; Whittaker, Andrew S.; Constantinou, Michael C.

    2015-12-15

    Highlights: • Response-history analysis of nuclear structures base-isolated using lead–rubber bearings is performed. • Advanced numerical model of lead–rubber bearing is used to capture behavior under extreme earthquake shaking. • Results of response-history analysis obtained using simplified and advanced model of lead–rubber bearings are compared. • Heating of the lead core and variation in buckling load and axial stiffness affect the response. - Abstract: Seismic isolation using low damping rubber and lead–rubber bearings is a viable strategy for mitigating the effects of extreme earthquake shaking on safety-related nuclear structures. The mechanical properties of these bearings are not expected to change substantially in design basis shaking. However, under shaking more intense than design basis, the properties of the lead cores in lead–rubber bearings may degrade due to heating associated with energy dissipation, some bearings in an isolation system may experience net tension, and the compression and tension stiffness may be affected by the lateral displacement of the isolation system. The effects of intra-earthquake changes in mechanical properties on the response of base-isolated nuclear power plants (NPPs) are investigated using an advanced numerical model of a lead–rubber bearing that has been verified and validated, and implemented in OpenSees. A macro-model is used for response-history analysis of base-isolated NPPs. Ground motions are selected and scaled to be consistent with response spectra for design basis and beyond design basis earthquake shaking at the site of the Diablo Canyon Nuclear Generating Station. Ten isolation systems of two periods and five characteristic strengths are analyzed. The responses obtained using simplified and advanced isolator models are compared. Strength degradation due to heating of lead cores and changes in buckling load most significantly affect the response of the base-isolated NPP.

  9. A generalized linear factor model approach to the hierarchical framework for responses and response times.

    Molenaar, Dylan; Tuerlinckx, Francis; van der Maas, Han L J

    2015-05-01

    We show how the hierarchical model for responses and response times as developed by van der Linden (2007), Fox, Klein Entink, and van der Linden (2007), Klein Entink, Fox, and van der Linden (2009), and Glas and van der Linden (2010) can be simplified to a generalized linear factor model with only the mild restriction that there is no hierarchical model at the item side. This result is valuable as it enables all well-developed modelling tools and extensions that come with these methods. We show that the restriction we impose on the hierarchical model does not influence parameter recovery under realistic circumstances. In addition, we present two illustrative real data analyses to demonstrate the practical benefits of our approach. © 2014 The British Psychological Society.

  10. Immobilized laccase-based biosensor for the detection of disubstituted methyl and methoxy phenols - application of Box-Behnken design with response surface methodology for modeling and optimization of performance parameters.

    Sarika, C; Rekha, K; Narasimha Murthy, B

    2016-11-01

    An amperometric principle-based biosensor, employing immobilized laccase enzyme from Trametes versicolor, was developed for the detection of disubstituted methyl and methoxy phenols. Three immobilization methods such as entrapment, cross-linking, and co-cross-linking, with bovine serum albumin (BSA) on nylon membrane have been compared. Among tested methods of immobilization, co-cross-linking method with BSA was superior to the other methods in terms of; sensitivity, limit of detection, response time, and operating stability. The increased sensitivity of the probe optimization of concentrations of laccase, BSA and glutaraldehyde can be achieved by, employing the Box-Behnken design of experiment.

  11. Dynamic Causal Modeling of the Cortical Responses to Wrist Perturbations

    Yuan Yang

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Mechanical perturbations applied to the wrist joint typically evoke a stereotypical sequence of cortical and muscle responses. The early cortical responses (<100 ms are thought be involved in the “rapid” transcortical reaction to the perturbation while the late cortical responses (>100 ms are related to the “slow” transcortical reaction. Although previous studies indicated that both responses involve the primary motor cortex, it remains unclear if both responses are engaged by the same effective connectivity in the cortical network. To answer this question, we investigated the effective connectivity cortical network after a “ramp-and-hold” mechanical perturbation, in both the early (<100 ms and late (>100 ms periods, using dynamic causal modeling. Ramp-and-hold perturbations were applied to the wrist joint while the subject maintained an isometric wrist flexion. Cortical activity was recorded using a 128-channel electroencephalogram (EEG. We investigated how the perturbation modulated the effective connectivity for the early and late periods. Bayesian model comparisons suggested that different effective connectivity networks are engaged in these two periods. For the early period, we found that only a few cortico-cortical connections were modulated, while more complicated connectivity was identified in the cortical network during the late period with multiple modulated cortico-cortical connections. The limited early cortical network likely allows for a rapid muscle response without involving high-level cognitive processes, while the complexity of the late network may facilitate coordinated responses.

  12. TRPM8-Dependent Dynamic Response in a Mathematical Model of Cold Thermoreceptor

    Olivares, Erick; Salgado, Simón; Maidana, Jean Paul; Herrera, Gaspar; Campos, Matías; Madrid, Rodolfo; Orio, Patricio

    2015-01-01

    Cold-sensitive nerve terminals (CSNTs) encode steady temperatures with regular, rhythmic temperature-dependent firing patterns that range from irregular tonic firing to regular bursting (static response). During abrupt temperature changes, CSNTs show a dynamic response, transiently increasing their firing frequency as temperature decreases and silencing when the temperature increases (dynamic response). To date, mathematical models that simulate the static response are based on two depolarizing/repolarizing pairs of membrane ionic conductance (slow and fast kinetics). However, these models fail to reproduce the dynamic response of CSNTs to rapid changes in temperature and notoriously they lack a specific cold-activated conductance such as the TRPM8 channel. We developed a model that includes TRPM8 as a temperature-dependent conductance with a calcium-dependent desensitization. We show by computer simulations that it appropriately reproduces the dynamic response of CSNTs from mouse cornea, while preserving their static response behavior. In this model, the TRPM8 conductance is essential to display a dynamic response. In agreement with experimental results, TRPM8 is also needed for the ongoing activity in the absence of stimulus (i.e. neutral skin temperature). Free parameters of the model were adjusted by an evolutionary optimization algorithm, allowing us to find different solutions. We present a family of possible parameters that reproduce the behavior of CSNTs under different temperature protocols. The detection of temperature gradients is associated to a homeostatic mechanism supported by the calcium-dependent desensitization. PMID:26426259

  13. TRPM8-Dependent Dynamic Response in a Mathematical Model of Cold Thermoreceptor.

    Erick Olivares

    Full Text Available Cold-sensitive nerve terminals (CSNTs encode steady temperatures with regular, rhythmic temperature-dependent firing patterns that range from irregular tonic firing to regular bursting (static response. During abrupt temperature changes, CSNTs show a dynamic response, transiently increasing their firing frequency as temperature decreases and silencing when the temperature increases (dynamic response. To date, mathematical models that simulate the static response are based on two depolarizing/repolarizing pairs of membrane ionic conductance (slow and fast kinetics. However, these models fail to reproduce the dynamic response of CSNTs to rapid changes in temperature and notoriously they lack a specific cold-activated conductance such as the TRPM8 channel. We developed a model that includes TRPM8 as a temperature-dependent conductance with a calcium-dependent desensitization. We show by computer simulations that it appropriately reproduces the dynamic response of CSNTs from mouse cornea, while preserving their static response behavior. In this model, the TRPM8 conductance is essential to display a dynamic response. In agreement with experimental results, TRPM8 is also needed for the ongoing activity in the absence of stimulus (i.e. neutral skin temperature. Free parameters of the model were adjusted by an evolutionary optimization algorithm, allowing us to find different solutions. We present a family of possible parameters that reproduce the behavior of CSNTs under different temperature protocols. The detection of temperature gradients is associated to a homeostatic mechanism supported by the calcium-dependent desensitization.

  14. Bayesian Dose-Response Modeling in Sparse Data

    Kim, Steven B.

    This book discusses Bayesian dose-response modeling in small samples applied to two different settings. The first setting is early phase clinical trials, and the second setting is toxicology studies in cancer risk assessment. In early phase clinical trials, experimental units are humans who are actual patients. Prior to a clinical trial, opinions from multiple subject area experts are generally more informative than the opinion of a single expert, but we may face a dilemma when they have disagreeing prior opinions. In this regard, we consider compromising the disagreement and compare two different approaches for making a decision. In addition to combining multiple opinions, we also address balancing two levels of ethics in early phase clinical trials. The first level is individual-level ethics which reflects the perspective of trial participants. The second level is population-level ethics which reflects the perspective of future patients. We extensively compare two existing statistical methods which focus on each perspective and propose a new method which balances the two conflicting perspectives. In toxicology studies, experimental units are living animals. Here we focus on a potential non-monotonic dose-response relationship which is known as hormesis. Briefly, hormesis is a phenomenon which can be characterized by a beneficial effect at low doses and a harmful effect at high doses. In cancer risk assessments, the estimation of a parameter, which is known as a benchmark dose, can be highly sensitive to a class of assumptions, monotonicity or hormesis. In this regard, we propose a robust approach which considers both monotonicity and hormesis as a possibility. In addition, We discuss statistical hypothesis testing for hormesis and consider various experimental designs for detecting hormesis based on Bayesian decision theory. Past experiments have not been optimally designed for testing for hormesis, and some Bayesian optimal designs may not be optimal under a

  15. Climate Shocks and Migration: An Agent-Based Modeling Approach

    Entwisle, Barbara; Williams, Nathalie E.; Verdery, Ashton M.; Rindfuss, Ronald R.; Walsh, Stephen J.; Malanson, George P.; Mucha, Peter J.; Frizzelle, Brian G.; McDaniel, Philip M.; Yao, Xiaozheng; Heumann, Benjamin W.; Prasartkul, Pramote; Sawangdee, Yothin; Jampaklay, Aree

    2016-01-01

    This is a study of migration responses to climate shocks. We construct an agent-based model that incorporates dynamic linkages between demographic behaviors, such as migration, marriage, and births, and agriculture and land use, which depend on rainfall patterns. The rules and parameterization of our model are empirically derived from qualitative and quantitative analyses of a well-studied demographic field site, Nang Rong district, Northeast Thailand. With this model, we simulate patterns of migration under four weather regimes in a rice economy: 1) a reference, ‘normal’ scenario; 2) seven years of unusually wet weather; 3) seven years of unusually dry weather; and 4) seven years of extremely variable weather. Results show relatively small impacts on migration. Experiments with the model show that existing high migration rates and strong selection factors, which are unaffected by climate change, are likely responsible for the weak migration response. PMID:27594725

  16. Base response arising from free-field motions

    Whitley, J.R.; Morgan, J.R.; Hall, W.J.; Newmark, N.M.

    1977-01-01

    A procedure is illustrated in this paper for deriving (estimating) from a free-field record the horizontal base motions of a building, including horizontal rotation and translation. More specifically the goal was to compare results of response calculations based on derived accelerations with the results of calculations based on recorded accelerations. The motions are determined by assuming that an actual recorded ground wave transits a rigid base of a given dimension. Calculations given in the paper were made employing the earthquake acceleration time histories of the Hollywood storage building and the adjacent P.E. lot for the Kern County (1952) and San Fernando (1971) earthquakes. (Auth.)

  17. Modeling of Transient Response of the Wickless Heat Pipes

    Hussien, A.K.A.

    2013-01-01

    Thermosyphons transient response for startup from ambient temperature to steady state until shutdown conditions, is considered a stringent necessity for applications such as electronic, solar, geothermal and even nuclear reactors safety systems. This typically returns to the need to keep the temperature within certain limits before reaching critical conditions. A simple network model is derived for describing the transient response of closed two-phase thermosyphon (CTPT) at startup and shutdown states. In addition, for predicting the effect of operational characteristics of water/copper closed two-phase thermosyphon such as thermal load, filling ratio, evaporator length, and thermosyphon tube diameter. The thermosyphons operation was considered a thermal network of various components with different thermal resistances and dynamic responses. The network model consists of six sub-models. These models are pure conduction in walls of evaporator, adiabatic and condenser, and convection in evaporator pool, evaporator film, and condenser film. So, an energy balance for each sub-model was done to estimate temperatures, heat transfer coefficients, thermal resistances, time constant, and other thermal characteristics that describe the required transient response of the closed two-phase thermosyphon. Governing equations of the transient thermosyphon behavior can be simplified into a set of first-order linear ordinary differential equations. The Runge-Kutta method can be used to obtain transient thermosyphon temperatures from these equations.

  18. Modelling benthic biophysical drivers of ecosystem structure and biogeochemical response

    Stephens, Nicholas; Bruggeman, Jorn; Lessin, Gennadi; Allen, Icarus

    2016-04-01

    The fate of carbon deposited at the sea floor is ultimately decided by biophysical drivers that control the efficiency of remineralisation and timescale of carbon burial in sediments. Specifically, these drivers include bioturbation through ingestion and movement, burrow-flushing and sediment reworking, which enhance vertical particulate transport and solute diffusion. Unfortunately, these processes are rarely satisfactorily resolved in models. To address this, a benthic model that explicitly describes the vertical position of biology (e.g., habitats) and biogeochemical processes is presented that includes biological functionality and biogeochemical response capturing changes in ecosystem structure, benthic-pelagic fluxes and biodiversity on inter-annual timescales. This is demonstrated by the model's ability to reproduce temporal variability in benthic infauna, vertical pore water nutrients and pelagic-benthic solute fluxes compared to in-situ data. A key advance is the replacement of bulk parameterisation of bioturbation by explicit description of the bio-physical processes responsible. This permits direct comparison with observations and determination of key parameters in experiments. Crucially, the model resolves the two-way interaction between sediment biogeochemistry and ecology, allowing exploration of the benthic response to changing environmental conditions, the importance of infaunal functional traits in shaping benthic ecological structure and the feedback the resulting bio-physical processes exert on pore water nutrient profiles. The model is actively being used to understand shelf sea carbon cycling, the response of the benthos to climatic change, food provision and other societal benefits.

  19. Numerical models and their role in emergency response: a perspective on dispersion modeling for emergency preparedness

    Greenly, G.D.; Dickerson, M.H.

    1983-03-01

    Numerical models on several levels of complexity should be available to the emergency response planner. They are a basic tool but must be used in conjunction with both measurements and experience. When these tools are used in a complimentary fashion they greatly enhance the capability of the consequence manager to respond in an emergency situation. Because each accident or incident develops it's own characteristics and requirements the system must be capable of a flexible response. Interaction and feedback between model results from a suite of models and measurements (including airborne measurements) serve the emergency response planner's spectrum of needs, ranging from planning exercises and emergency precalculations to a real-time emergency response

  20. A physiologically based nonhomogeneous Poisson counter model of visual identification

    Christensen, Jeppe H; Markussen, Bo; Bundesen, Claus

    2018-01-01

    A physiologically based nonhomogeneous Poisson counter model of visual identification is presented. The model was developed in the framework of a Theory of Visual Attention (Bundesen, 1990; Kyllingsbæk, Markussen, & Bundesen, 2012) and meant for modeling visual identification of objects that are ......A physiologically based nonhomogeneous Poisson counter model of visual identification is presented. The model was developed in the framework of a Theory of Visual Attention (Bundesen, 1990; Kyllingsbæk, Markussen, & Bundesen, 2012) and meant for modeling visual identification of objects...... that mimicked the dynamics of receptive field selectivity as found in neurophysiological studies. Furthermore, the initial sensory response yielded theoretical hazard rate functions that closely resembled empirically estimated ones. Finally, supplied with a Naka-Rushton type contrast gain control, the model...

  1. Dementia caregivers' responses to 2 Internet-based intervention programs.

    Marziali, Elsa; Garcia, Linda J

    2011-02-01

    The aim of this study was to examine the impact on dementia caregivers' experienced stress and health status of 2 Internet-based intervention programs. Ninety-one dementia caregivers were given the choice of being involved in either an Internet-based chat support group or an Internet-based video conferencing support group. Pre-post outcome measures focused on distress, health status, social support, and service utilization. In contrast to the Chat Group, the Video Group showed significantly greater improvement in mental health status. Also, for the Video Group, improvements in self-efficacy, neuroticism, and social support were associated with lower stress response to coping with the care recipient's cognitive impairment and decline in function. The results show that, of 2 Internet-based intervention programs for dementia caregivers, the video conferencing intervention program was more effective in improving mental health status and improvement in personal characteristics were associated with lower caregiver stress response.

  2. Simplified Model and Response Analysis for Crankshaft of Air Compressor

    Chao-bo, Li; Jing-jun, Lou; Zhen-hai, Zhang

    2017-11-01

    The original model of crankshaft is simplified to the appropriateness to balance the calculation precision and calculation speed, and then the finite element method is used to analyse the vibration response of the structure. In order to study the simplification and stress concentration for crankshaft of air compressor, this paper compares calculative mode frequency and experimental mode frequency of the air compressor crankshaft before and after the simplification, the vibration response of reference point constraint conditions is calculated by using the simplified model, and the stress distribution of the original model is calculated. The results show that the error between calculative mode frequency and experimental mode frequency is controlled in less than 7%, the constraint will change the model density of the system, the position between the crank arm and the shaft appeared stress concentration, so the part of the crankshaft should be treated in the process of manufacture.

  3. Incorporating Responsiveness to Marketing Efforts in Brand Choice Modeling

    Dennis Fok

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available We put forward a brand choice model with unobserved heterogeneity that concerns responsiveness to marketing efforts. We introduce two latent segments of households. The first segment is assumed to respond to marketing efforts, while households in the second segment do not do so. Whether a specific household is a member of the first or the second segment at a specific purchase occasion is described by household-specific characteristics and characteristics concerning buying behavior. Households may switch between the two responsiveness states over time. When comparing the performance of our model with alternative choice models that account for various forms of heterogeneity for three different datasets, we find better face validity for our parameters. Our model also forecasts better.

  4. A rate equation model of stomatal responses to vapour pressure deficit and drought

    Shanahan ST

    2002-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Stomata respond to vapour pressure deficit (D – when D increases, stomata begin to close. Closure is the result of a decline in guard cell turgor, but the link between D and turgor is poorly understood. We describe a model for stomatal responses to increasing D based upon cellular water relations. The model also incorporates impacts of increasing levels of water stress upon stomatal responses to increasing D. Results The model successfully mimics the three phases of stomatal responses to D and also reproduces the impact of increasing plant water deficit upon stomatal responses to increasing D. As water stress developed, stomata regulated transpiration at ever decreasing values of D. Thus, stomatal sensitivity to D increased with increasing water stress. Predictions from the model concerning the impact of changes in cuticular transpiration upon stomatal responses to increasing D are shown to conform to experimental data. Sensitivity analyses of stomatal responses to various parameters of the model show that leaf thickness, the fraction of leaf volume that is air-space, and the fraction of mesophyll cell wall in contact with air have little impact upon behaviour of the model. In contrast, changes in cuticular conductance and membrane hydraulic conductivity have significant impacts upon model behaviour. Conclusion Cuticular transpiration is an important feature of stomatal responses to D and is the cause of the 3 phase response to D. Feed-forward behaviour of stomata does not explain stomatal responses to D as feedback, involving water loss from guard cells, can explain these responses.

  5. Uncertainty Quantification given Discontinuous Climate Model Response and a Limited Number of Model Runs

    Sargsyan, K.; Safta, C.; Debusschere, B.; Najm, H.

    2010-12-01

    Uncertainty quantification in complex climate models is challenged by the sparsity of available climate model predictions due to the high computational cost of model runs. Another feature that prevents classical uncertainty analysis from being readily applicable is bifurcative behavior in climate model response with respect to certain input parameters. A typical example is the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. The predicted maximum overturning stream function exhibits discontinuity across a curve in the space of two uncertain parameters, namely climate sensitivity and CO2 forcing. We outline a methodology for uncertainty quantification given discontinuous model response and a limited number of model runs. Our approach is two-fold. First we detect the discontinuity with Bayesian inference, thus obtaining a probabilistic representation of the discontinuity curve shape and location for arbitrarily distributed input parameter values. Then, we construct spectral representations of uncertainty, using Polynomial Chaos (PC) expansions on either side of the discontinuity curve, leading to an averaged-PC representation of the forward model that allows efficient uncertainty quantification. The approach is enabled by a Rosenblatt transformation that maps each side of the discontinuity to regular domains where desirable orthogonality properties for the spectral bases hold. We obtain PC modes by either orthogonal projection or Bayesian inference, and argue for a hybrid approach that targets a balance between the accuracy provided by the orthogonal projection and the flexibility provided by the Bayesian inference - where the latter allows obtaining reasonable expansions without extra forward model runs. The model output, and its associated uncertainty at specific design points, are then computed by taking an ensemble average over PC expansions corresponding to possible realizations of the discontinuity curve. The methodology is tested on synthetic examples of

  6. The development of a fully-integrated immune response model (FIRM) simulator of the immune response through integration of multiple subset models.

    Palsson, Sirus; Hickling, Timothy P; Bradshaw-Pierce, Erica L; Zager, Michael; Jooss, Karin; O'Brien, Peter J; Spilker, Mary E; Palsson, Bernhard O; Vicini, Paolo

    2013-09-28

    The complexity and multiscale nature of the mammalian immune response provides an excellent test bed for the potential of mathematical modeling and simulation to facilitate mechanistic understanding. Historically, mathematical models of the immune response focused on subsets of the immune system and/or specific aspects of the response. Mathematical models have been developed for the humoral side of the immune response, or for the cellular side, or for cytokine kinetics, but rarely have they been proposed to encompass the overall system complexity. We propose here a framework for integration of subset models, based on a system biology approach. A dynamic simulator, the Fully-integrated Immune Response Model (FIRM), was built in a stepwise fashion by integrating published subset models and adding novel features. The approach used to build the model includes the formulation of the network of interacting species and the subsequent introduction of rate laws to describe each biological process. The resulting model represents a multi-organ structure, comprised of the target organ where the immune response takes place, circulating blood, lymphoid T, and lymphoid B tissue. The cell types accounted for include macrophages, a few T-cell lineages (cytotoxic, regulatory, helper 1, and helper 2), and B-cell activation to plasma cells. Four different cytokines were accounted for: IFN-γ, IL-4, IL-10 and IL-12. In addition, generic inflammatory signals are used to represent the kinetics of IL-1, IL-2, and TGF-β. Cell recruitment, differentiation, replication, apoptosis and migration are described as appropriate for the different cell types. The model is a hybrid structure containing information from several mammalian species. The structure of the network was built to be physiologically and biochemically consistent. Rate laws for all the cellular fate processes, growth factor production rates and half-lives, together with antibody production rates and half-lives, are provided. The

  7. Automatic hearing loss detection system based on auditory brainstem response

    Aldonate, J; Mercuri, C; Reta, J; Biurrun, J; Bonell, C; Gentiletti, G; Escobar, S; Acevedo, R

    2007-01-01

    Hearing loss is one of the pathologies with the highest prevalence in newborns. If it is not detected in time, it can affect the nervous system and cause problems in speech, language and cognitive development. The recommended methods for early detection are based on otoacoustic emissions (OAE) and/or auditory brainstem response (ABR). In this work, the design and implementation of an automated system based on ABR to detect hearing loss in newborns is presented. Preliminary evaluation in adults was satisfactory

  8. Model Validation in Ontology Based Transformations

    Jesús M. Almendros-Jiménez

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Model Driven Engineering (MDE is an emerging approach of software engineering. MDE emphasizes the construction of models from which the implementation should be derived by applying model transformations. The Ontology Definition Meta-model (ODM has been proposed as a profile for UML models of the Web Ontology Language (OWL. In this context, transformations of UML models can be mapped into ODM/OWL transformations. On the other hand, model validation is a crucial task in model transformation. Meta-modeling permits to give a syntactic structure to source and target models. However, semantic requirements have to be imposed on source and target models. A given transformation will be sound when source and target models fulfill the syntactic and semantic requirements. In this paper, we present an approach for model validation in ODM based transformations. Adopting a logic programming based transformational approach we will show how it is possible to transform and validate models. Properties to be validated range from structural and semantic requirements of models (pre and post conditions to properties of the transformation (invariants. The approach has been applied to a well-known example of model transformation: the Entity-Relationship (ER to Relational Model (RM transformation.

  9. A Kriging Model Based Finite Element Model Updating Method for Damage Detection

    Xiuming Yang

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Model updating is an effective means of damage identification and surrogate modeling has attracted considerable attention for saving computational cost in finite element (FE model updating, especially for large-scale structures. In this context, a surrogate model of frequency is normally constructed for damage identification, while the frequency response function (FRF is rarely used as it usually changes dramatically with updating parameters. This paper presents a new surrogate model based model updating method taking advantage of the measured FRFs. The Frequency Domain Assurance Criterion (FDAC is used to build the objective function, whose nonlinear response surface is constructed by the Kriging model. Then, the efficient global optimization (EGO algorithm is introduced to get the model updating results. The proposed method has good accuracy and robustness, which have been verified by a numerical simulation of a cantilever and experimental test data of a laboratory three-story structure.

  10. Aggregated Demand Response Modelling for Future Grid Scenarios

    Marzooghi, Hesamoddin; Verbic, Gregor; Hill, David J.

    2015-01-01

    With the increased penetration of intermittent renewable energy sources (RESs) in future grids (FGs), balancing between supply and demand will become more dependent on demand response (DR) and energy storage. Thus, FG feasibility studies will need to consider DR for modelling nett future demand. Against this backdrop, this paper proposes a demand model which integrates the aggregated effect of DR in a simplified representation of the effect of market/dispatch processes aiming at minimising th...

  11. Modeling maize response to climate modification in Hungary

    Angela Anda

    2006-01-01

    Modeling provides a tool for a better understanding of the modified plant behaviour that results from various climatic differences. The present study provides new information about the physiological processes in maize (Zea mays L.) in response to climatic changes. The aim was to help local farmers adapt to climate modifications in Hungary and mitigate the future consequences of these changes. A simulation model was applied to estimate the possible feedback on crop properties and elevated CO2....

  12. Modeling Composite Assessment Data Using Item Response Theory

    Ueckert, Sebastian

    2018-01-01

    Composite assessments aim to combine different aspects of a disease in a single score and are utilized in a variety of therapeutic areas. The data arising from these evaluations are inherently discrete with distinct statistical properties. This tutorial presents the framework of the item response theory (IRT) for the analysis of this data type in a pharmacometric context. The article considers both conceptual (terms and assumptions) and practical questions (modeling software, data requirements, and model building). PMID:29493119

  13. Penerapan Corporate Social Responsibility dengan Konsep Community Based Tourism

    Linda Suriany

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract: Business is not only economic institution, but social institution too. As social institution, business has responsibility to help society in solving social problem. This responsibility called Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR. CSR pays attention about social problem and environment, so CSR support continuous development to help government role. Nowadays, our government has national development’s agenda. One of them is tourism sector (Visit Indonesia Year 2008 programmed. But tourism sector has challenge in human resources. In this case, business role in practice CSR is needed to help tourism sector. With CSR activities, the quality of local community will increase to participate in tourism activities. CSR activities include training that based on research. When the quality of local community increase, local community can practice the concept of community based tourism (CBT. In the future, Indonesia has a power to compete with other countries.

  14. The Biological Responses to Magnesium-Based Biodegradable Medical Devices

    Lumei Liu

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The biocompatibility of Magnesium-based materials (MBMs is critical to the safety of biodegradable medical devices. As a promising metallic biomaterial for medical devices, the issue of greatest concern is devices’ safety as degrading products are possibly interacting with local tissue during complete degradation. The aim of this review is to summarize the biological responses to MBMs at the cellular/molecular level, including cell adhesion, transportation signaling, immune response, and tissue growth during the complex degradation process. We review the influence of MBMs on gene/protein biosynthesis and expression at the site of implantation, as well as throughout the body. This paper provides a systematic review of the cellular/molecular behavior of local tissue on the response to Mg degradation, which may facilitate a better prediction of long-term degradation and the safe use of magnesium-based implants through metal innovation.

  15. An acoustical model based monitoring network

    Wessels, P.W.; Basten, T.G.H.; Eerden, F.J.M. van der

    2010-01-01

    In this paper the approach for an acoustical model based monitoring network is demonstrated. This network is capable of reconstructing a noise map, based on the combination of measured sound levels and an acoustic model of the area. By pre-calculating the sound attenuation within the network the

  16. WATER LAW AND MODEL OF RESPONSIBLE WATER USAGE

    Dmitri Olegovitch Sivakov

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available As it is known, the water law regulates dynamic social relationships concerning study, usage and protection of water objects, as well as their transformation. The water law explicitly regulates water economic activities. The regulatory method of the water law has a mixed nature and thus is not distinctive. It predetermines in some cases equality and independence of subjects of relationships (water usage agreement and in other – power and submission (permissive nature of water usage. The aim of the publication is to promote scientific ideas about the fate of the water law in order to make a further polygonal and productive discussion in which the reader is invited to participate. Scientific novelty. In 2016 the monograph of D.O. Sivakov “Water law: dynamics, problems, perspectives: monograph” (second edition, reviewed and updated. Moscow: Stolitsa, 2016. 540 p. was published. In 2017 the author reconsidered some conclusions of his monograph and applied scientific achievements of theory of state and law in water sphere. In accordance with this, it is important to mention research of Petrov D.E. related to issues of differentiation and integration of structural formations of Russian legal system. The scientific novelty of the article includes the synthesis of ideas of the monograph and some achievements of theory of state and law. Methods of research. The author of the article relies on some collective and individual monographic studies in the sphere of theory of state and law, natural resource law, arctic law, financial law. Basic results of research. The author promotes the model of responsible water usage. This model shall be based not on the unstable balance of economic and environmental interests (which shall practically lead to the domination of economic interests, but on the obligatory combination of economic activities with technologies, ensuring maximal preservation of water resources. Responsible water usage shall mean a system of

  17. Regularization of a massless dirac model to describe anomalous electromagnetic response of Weyl semimetals

    Takane, Yoshitake

    2016-01-01

    An unbounded massless Dirac model with two nondegenerate Dirac cones is the simplest model for Weyl semimetals, which show the anomalous electromagnetic response of chiral magnetic effect (CME) and anomalous Hall effect (AHE). However, if this model is naively used to analyze the electromagnetic response within a linear response theory, it gives the result apparently inconsistent with the persuasive prediction based on a lattice model. We show that this serious difficulty is related to the breaking of current conservation in the Dirac model due to quantum anomaly and can be removed if current and charge operators are redefined to include the contribution from the anomaly. We demonstrate that the CME as well as the AHE can be properly described using newly defined operators, and clarify that the CME is determined by the competition between the contribution from the anomaly and that from low-energy electrons. (author)

  18. Reliability Evaluation of Bridges Based on Nonprobabilistic Response Surface Limit Method

    Chen, Xuyong; Chen, Qian; Bian, Xiaoya; Fan, Jianping

    2017-01-01

    Due to many uncertainties in nonprobabilistic reliability assessment of bridges, the limit state function is generally unknown. The traditional nonprobabilistic response surface method is a lengthy and oscillating iteration process and leads to difficultly solving the nonprobabilistic reliability index. This article proposes a nonprobabilistic response surface limit method based on the interval model. The intention of this method is to solve the upper and lower limits of the nonprobabilistic ...

  19. measles case-based surveillance and outbreak response in nigeria

    of the existing national technical guideline on measles case- based surveillance and outbreak response in Nigeria in ... according to the revised national measles technical guideline9. However, with the strengthening of the ... involves immediate reporting and investigating any suspected case of measles by clinicians using ...

  20. Software-Based Student Response Systems: An Interdisciplinary Initiative

    Fischer, Carol M.; Hoffman, Michael S.; Casey, Nancy C.; Cox, Maureen P.

    2015-01-01

    Colleagues from information technology and three academic departments collaborated on an instructional technology initiative to employ student response systems in classes in mathematics, accounting and education. The instructors assessed the viability of using software-based systems to enable students to use their own devices (cell phones,…

  1. A nodal method based on the response-matrix method

    Cunha Menezes Filho, A. da; Rocamora Junior, F.D.

    1983-02-01

    A nodal approach based on the Response-Matrix method is presented with the purpose of investigating the possibility of mixing two different allocations in the same problem. It is found that the use of allocation of albedo combined with allocation of direct reflection produces good results for homogeneous fast reactor configurations. (Author) [pt

  2. Chemical Leasing business models and corporate social responsibility.

    Moser, Frank; Jakl, Thomas; Joas, Reihard; Dondi, Francesco

    2014-11-01

    Chemical Leasing is a service-oriented business model that shifts the focus from increasing sales volume of chemicals towards a value-added approach. Recent pilot projects have shown the economic benefits of introducing Chemical Leasing business models in a broad range of sectors. A decade after its introduction, the promotion of Chemical Leasing is still predominantly done by the public sector and international organizations. We show in this paper that awareness-raising activities to disseminate information on this innovative business model mainly focus on the economic benefits. We argue that selling Chemical Leasing business models solely on the grounds of economic and ecological considerations falls short of branding it as a corporate social responsibility initiative, which, for this paper, is defined as a stakeholder-oriented concept that extends beyond the organization's boundaries and is driven by an ethical understanding of the organization's responsibility for the impact of its business activities. For the analysis of Chemical Leasing business models, we introduce two case studies from the water purification and metal degreasing fields, focusing on employees and local communities as two specific stakeholder groups of the company introducing Chemical Leasing. The paper seeks to demonstrate that Chemical Leasing business models can be branded as a corporate social responsibility initiative by outlining the vast potential of Chemical Leasing to improve occupational health and safety and to strengthen the ability of companies to protect the environment from the adverse effects of the chemicals they apply.

  3. Electric Water Heater Modeling and Control Strategies for Demand Response

    Diao, Ruisheng; Lu, Shuai; Elizondo, Marcelo A.; Mayhorn, Ebony T.; Zhang, Yu; Samaan, Nader A.

    2012-07-22

    Abstract— Demand response (DR) has a great potential to provide balancing services at normal operating conditions and emergency support when a power system is subject to disturbances. Effective control strategies can significantly relieve the balancing burden of conventional generators and reduce investment on generation and transmission expansion. This paper is aimed at modeling electric water heaters (EWH) in households and tests their response to control strategies to implement DR. The open-loop response of EWH to a centralized signal is studied by adjusting temperature settings to provide regulation services; and two types of decentralized controllers are tested to provide frequency support following generator trips. EWH models are included in a simulation platform in DIgSILENT to perform electromechanical simulation, which contains 147 households in a distribution feeder. Simulation results show the dependence of EWH response on water heater usage . These results provide insight suggestions on the need of control strategies to achieve better performance for demand response implementation. Index Terms— Centralized control, decentralized control, demand response, electrical water heater, smart grid

  4. Computer adaptive practice of Maths ability using a new item response model for on the fly ability and difficulty estimation

    Klinkenberg, S.; Straatemeier, M.; van der Maas, H.L.J.

    2011-01-01

    In this paper we present a model for computerized adaptive practice and monitoring. This model is used in the Maths Garden, a web-based monitoring system, which includes a challenging web environment for children to practice arithmetic. Using a new item response model based on the Elo (1978) rating

  5. Surrogate based approaches to parameter inference in ocean models

    Knio, Omar

    2016-01-06

    This talk discusses the inference of physical parameters using model surrogates. Attention is focused on the use of sampling schemes to build suitable representations of the dependence of the model response on uncertain input data. Non-intrusive spectral projections and regularized regressions are used for this purpose. A Bayesian inference formalism is then applied to update the uncertain inputs based on available measurements or observations. To perform the update, we consider two alternative approaches, based on the application of Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods or of adjoint-based optimization techniques. We outline the implementation of these techniques to infer dependence of wind drag, bottom drag, and internal mixing coefficients.

  6. Surrogate based approaches to parameter inference in ocean models

    Knio, Omar

    2016-01-01

    This talk discusses the inference of physical parameters using model surrogates. Attention is focused on the use of sampling schemes to build suitable representations of the dependence of the model response on uncertain input data. Non-intrusive spectral projections and regularized regressions are used for this purpose. A Bayesian inference formalism is then applied to update the uncertain inputs based on available measurements or observations. To perform the update, we consider two alternative approaches, based on the application of Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods or of adjoint-based optimization techniques. We outline the implementation of these techniques to infer dependence of wind drag, bottom drag, and internal mixing coefficients.

  7. Model-based version management system framework

    Mehmood, W.

    2016-01-01

    In this paper we present a model-based version management system. Version Management System (VMS) a branch of software configuration management (SCM) aims to provide a controlling mechanism for evolution of software artifacts created during software development process. Controlling the evolution requires many activities to perform, such as, construction and creation of versions, identification of differences between versions, conflict detection and merging. Traditional VMS systems are file-based and consider software systems as a set of text files. File based VMS systems are not adequate for performing software configuration management activities such as, version control on software artifacts produced in earlier phases of the software life cycle. New challenges of model differencing, merge, and evolution control arise while using models as central artifact. The goal of this work is to present a generic framework model-based VMS which can be used to overcome the problem of tradition file-based VMS systems and provide model versioning services. (author)

  8. Development of regional atmospheric dynamic and air pollution models for nuclear emergency response system WSPEEDI

    Furuno, Akiko; Yamazawa, Hiromi; Lee, Soon-Hwan; Tsujita, Yuichi; Takemiya, Hiroshi; Chino, Masamichi

    2000-01-01

    WSPEEDI (Worldwide version of System for Prediction of Environmental Emergency Dose Information) is a computer-based emergency response system to predict long-range atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides discharged into the atmosphere due to a nuclear accident. WSPEEDI has been applied to several international exercises and real events. Through such experiences, the new version of WSPEEDI aims to employ a combination of an atmospheric dynamic model and a particle random walk model for more accurate predictions. This paper describes these models, improvement of prediction and computational techniques for quick responses. (author)

  9. A Theoretical Hypothesis on Ferris Wheel Model of University Social Responsibility

    Le Kang

    2016-01-01

    According to the nature of the university, as a free and responsible academic community, USR is based on a different foundation —academic responsibility, so the Pyramid and the IC Model of CSR could not fully explain the most distinguished feature of USR. This paper sought to put forward a new model— Ferris Wheel Model, to illustrate the nature of USR and the process of achievement. The Ferris Wheel Model of USR shows the university creates a balanced, fairness and neutrality systemic structu...

  10. Model-based internal wave processing

    Candy, J.V.; Chambers, D.H.

    1995-06-09

    A model-based approach is proposed to solve the oceanic internal wave signal processing problem that is based on state-space representations of the normal-mode vertical velocity and plane wave horizontal velocity propagation models. It is shown that these representations can be utilized to spatially propagate the modal (dept) vertical velocity functions given the basic parameters (wave numbers, Brunt-Vaisala frequency profile etc.) developed from the solution of the associated boundary value problem as well as the horizontal velocity components. Based on this framework, investigations are made of model-based solutions to the signal enhancement problem for internal waves.

  11. Models of the delayed nonlinear Raman response in diatomic gases

    Palastro, J. P.; Antonsen, T. M. Jr.; Pearson, A.

    2011-01-01

    We examine the delayed response of a diatomic gas to a polarizing laser field with the goal of obtaining computationally efficient methods for use with laser pulse propagation simulations. We demonstrate that for broadband pulses, heavy molecules such as O 2 and N 2 , and typical atmospheric temperatures, the initial delayed response requires only classical physics. The linear kinetic Green's function is derived from the Boltzmann equation and shown to be in excellent agreement with full density-matrix calculations. A straightforward perturbation approach for the fully nonlinear, kinetic impulse response is also presented. With the kinetic theory a reduced fluid model of the diatomic gas' orientation is derived. Transport coefficients are introduced to model the kinetic phase mixing of the delayed response. In addition to computational rapidity, the fluid model provides intuition through the use of familiar macroscopic quantities. Both the kinetic and the fluid descriptions predict a nonlinear steady-state alignment after passage of the laser pulse, which in the fluid model is interpreted as an anisotropic temperature of the diatomic fluid with respect to motion about the polarization axis.

  12. Using SAS PROC MCMC for Item Response Theory Models

    Ames, Allison J.; Samonte, Kelli

    2015-01-01

    Interest in using Bayesian methods for estimating item response theory models has grown at a remarkable rate in recent years. This attentiveness to Bayesian estimation has also inspired a growth in available software such as WinBUGS, R packages, BMIRT, MPLUS, and SAS PROC MCMC. This article intends to provide an accessible overview of Bayesian…

  13. Multilevel Higher-Order Item Response Theory Models

    Huang, Hung-Yu; Wang, Wen-Chung

    2014-01-01

    In the social sciences, latent traits often have a hierarchical structure, and data can be sampled from multiple levels. Both hierarchical latent traits and multilevel data can occur simultaneously. In this study, we developed a general class of item response theory models to accommodate both hierarchical latent traits and multilevel data. The…

  14. Item Response Theory Models for Performance Decline during Testing

    Jin, Kuan-Yu; Wang, Wen-Chung

    2014-01-01

    Sometimes, test-takers may not be able to attempt all items to the best of their ability (with full effort) due to personal factors (e.g., low motivation) or testing conditions (e.g., time limit), resulting in poor performances on certain items, especially those located toward the end of a test. Standard item response theory (IRT) models fail to…

  15. Item Response Theory Modeling of the Philadelphia Naming Test

    Fergadiotis, Gerasimos; Kellough, Stacey; Hula, William D.

    2015-01-01

    Purpose: In this study, we investigated the fit of the Philadelphia Naming Test (PNT; Roach, Schwartz, Martin, Grewal, & Brecher, 1996) to an item-response-theory measurement model, estimated the precision of the resulting scores and item parameters, and provided a theoretical rationale for the interpretation of PNT overall scores by relating…

  16. Model of optical response of marine aerosols to Forbush decreases

    Bondo, Torsten; Enghoff, Martin Andreas Bødker; Svensmark, Henrik

    2010-01-01

    In order to elucidate the effect of galactic cosmic rays on cloud formation, we investigate the optical response of marine aerosols to Forbush decreases - abrupt decreases in galactic cosmic rays - by means of modeling. We vary the nucleation rate of new aerosols, in a sectional coagulation...

  17. Vegetable parenting practices scale: Item response modeling analyses

    Our objective was to evaluate the psychometric properties of a vegetable parenting practices scale using multidimensional polytomous item response modeling which enables assessing item fit to latent variables and the distributional characteristics of the items in comparison to the respondents. We al...

  18. A physiologically based nonhomogeneous Poisson counter model of visual identification.

    Christensen, Jeppe H; Markussen, Bo; Bundesen, Claus; Kyllingsbæk, Søren

    2018-04-30

    A physiologically based nonhomogeneous Poisson counter model of visual identification is presented. The model was developed in the framework of a Theory of Visual Attention (Bundesen, 1990; Kyllingsbæk, Markussen, & Bundesen, 2012) and meant for modeling visual identification of objects that are mutually confusable and hard to see. The model assumes that the visual system's initial sensory response consists in tentative visual categorizations, which are accumulated by leaky integration of both transient and sustained components comparable with those found in spike density patterns of early sensory neurons. The sensory response (tentative categorizations) feeds independent Poisson counters, each of which accumulates tentative object categorizations of a particular type to guide overt identification performance. We tested the model's ability to predict the effect of stimulus duration on observed distributions of responses in a nonspeeded (pure accuracy) identification task with eight response alternatives. The time courses of correct and erroneous categorizations were well accounted for when the event-rates of competing Poisson counters were allowed to vary independently over time in a way that mimicked the dynamics of receptive field selectivity as found in neurophysiological studies. Furthermore, the initial sensory response yielded theoretical hazard rate functions that closely resembled empirically estimated ones. Finally, supplied with a Naka-Rushton type contrast gain control, the model provided an explanation for Bloch's law. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

  19. Physics-based Entry, Descent and Landing Risk Model

    Gee, Ken; Huynh, Loc C.; Manning, Ted

    2014-01-01

    A physics-based risk model was developed to assess the risk associated with thermal protection system failures during the entry, descent and landing phase of a manned spacecraft mission. In the model, entry trajectories were computed using a three-degree-of-freedom trajectory tool, the aerothermodynamic heating environment was computed using an engineering-level computational tool and the thermal response of the TPS material was modeled using a one-dimensional thermal response tool. The model was capable of modeling the effect of micrometeoroid and orbital debris impact damage on the TPS thermal response. A Monte Carlo analysis was used to determine the effects of uncertainties in the vehicle state at Entry Interface, aerothermodynamic heating and material properties on the performance of the TPS design. The failure criterion was set as a temperature limit at the bondline between the TPS and the underlying structure. Both direct computation and response surface approaches were used to compute the risk. The model was applied to a generic manned space capsule design. The effect of material property uncertainty and MMOD damage on risk of failure were analyzed. A comparison of the direct computation and response surface approach was undertaken.

  20. A new constitutive model for prediction of impact rates response of polypropylene

    Buckley C.P.

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a new constitutive model for predicting the impact rates response of polypropylene. Impact rates, as used here, refer to strain rates greater than 1000 1/s. The model is a physically based, three-dimensional constitutive model which incorporates the contributions of the amorphous, crystalline, pseudo-amorphous and entanglement networks to the constitutive response of polypropylene. The model mathematics is based on the well-known Glass-Rubber model originally developed for glassy polymers but the arguments have herein been extended to semi-crystalline polymers. In order to predict the impact rates behaviour of polypropylene, the model exploits the well-known framework of multiple processes yielding of polymers. This work argues that two dominant viscoelastic relaxation processes – the alpha- and beta-processes – can be associated with the yield responses of polypropylene observed at low-rate-dominant and impact-rates dominant loading regimes. Compression test data on polypropylene have been used to validate the model. The study has found that the model predicts quite well the experimentally observed nonlinear rate-dependent impact response of polypropylene.